Dopamine reward prediction errors reflect hidden state inference across time

PubMed Central

Starkweather, Clara Kwon; Babayan, Benedicte M.; Uchida, Naoshige; Gershman, Samuel J.

2017-01-01

Midbrain dopamine neurons signal reward prediction error (RPE), or actual minus expected reward. The temporal difference (TD) learning model has been a cornerstone in understanding how dopamine RPEs could drive associative learning. Classically, TD learning imparts value to features that serially track elapsed time relative to observable stimuli. In the real world, however, sensory stimuli provide ambiguous information about the hidden state of the environment, leading to the proposal that TD learning might instead compute a value signal based on an inferred distribution of hidden states (a ‘belief state’). In this work, we asked whether dopaminergic signaling supports a TD learning framework that operates over hidden states. We found that dopamine signaling exhibited a striking difference between two tasks that differed only with respect to whether reward was delivered deterministically. Our results favor an associative learning rule that combines cached values with hidden state inference. PMID:28263301

Dopamine reward prediction errors reflect hidden-state inference across time.

PubMed

Starkweather, Clara Kwon; Babayan, Benedicte M; Uchida, Naoshige; Gershman, Samuel J

2017-04-01

Midbrain dopamine neurons signal reward prediction error (RPE), or actual minus expected reward. The temporal difference (TD) learning model has been a cornerstone in understanding how dopamine RPEs could drive associative learning. Classically, TD learning imparts value to features that serially track elapsed time relative to observable stimuli. In the real world, however, sensory stimuli provide ambiguous information about the hidden state of the environment, leading to the proposal that TD learning might instead compute a value signal based on an inferred distribution of hidden states (a 'belief state'). Here we asked whether dopaminergic signaling supports a TD learning framework that operates over hidden states. We found that dopamine signaling showed a notable difference between two tasks that differed only with respect to whether reward was delivered in a deterministic manner. Our results favor an associative learning rule that combines cached values with hidden-state inference.

Hidden Variable Theories and Quantum Nonlocality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boozer, A. D.

2009-01-01

We clarify the meaning of Bell's theorem and its implications for the construction of hidden variable theories by considering an example system consisting of two entangled spin-1/2 particles. Using this example, we present a simplified version of Bell's theorem and describe several hidden variable theories that agree with the predictions of…

Hidden Agendas in Marriage: Affective and Longitudinal Dimensions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krokoff, Lowell J.

1990-01-01

Examines how couples' discussions of troublesome problems reveal hidden agendas (issues not directly discussed or explored). Finds disgust and contempt are at the core of both love and respect agendas for husbands and wives. Finds that wives' more than husbands' hidden agendas are directly predictive of how negatively they argue at home. (SR)

Modeling moisture content of fine dead wildland fuels: Input to the BEHAVE fire prediction system

Treesearch

Richard C. Rothermel; Ralph A. Wilson; Glen A. Morris; Stephen S. Sackett

1986-01-01

Describes a model for predicting moisture content of fine fuels for use with the BEHAVE fire behavior and fuel modeling system. The model is intended to meet the need for more accurate predictions of fine fuel moisture, particularly in northern conifer stands and on days following rain. The model is based on the Canadian Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), modified to...

A new model for predicting moisture uptake by packaged solid pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Chen, Y; Li, Y

2003-04-14

A novel mathematical model has been developed for predicting moisture uptake by packaged solid pharmaceutical products during storage. High density polyethylene (HDPE) bottles containing the tablet products of two new chemical entities and desiccants are investigated. Permeability of the bottles is determined at different temperatures using steady-state data. Moisture sorption isotherms of the two model drug products and desiccants at the same temperatures are determined and expressed in polynomial equations. The isotherms are used for modeling the time-humidity profile in the container, which enables the prediction of the moisture content of individual component during storage. Predicted moisture contents agree well with real time stability data. The current model could serve as a guide during packaging selection for moisture protection, so as to reduce the cost and cycle time of screening study.

Inference for dynamics of continuous variables: the extended Plefka expansion with hidden nodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bravi, B.; Sollich, P.

2017-06-01

We consider the problem of a subnetwork of observed nodes embedded into a larger bulk of unknown (i.e. hidden) nodes, where the aim is to infer these hidden states given information about the subnetwork dynamics. The biochemical networks underlying many cellular and metabolic processes are important realizations of such a scenario as typically one is interested in reconstructing the time evolution of unobserved chemical concentrations starting from the experimentally more accessible ones. We present an application to this problem of a novel dynamical mean field approximation, the extended Plefka expansion, which is based on a path integral description of the stochastic dynamics. As a paradigmatic model we study the stochastic linear dynamics of continuous degrees of freedom interacting via random Gaussian couplings. The resulting joint distribution is known to be Gaussian and this allows us to fully characterize the posterior statistics of the hidden nodes. In particular the equal-time hidden-to-hidden variance—conditioned on observations—gives the expected error at each node when the hidden time courses are predicted based on the observations. We assess the accuracy of the extended Plefka expansion in predicting these single node variances as well as error correlations over time, focussing on the role of the system size and the number of observed nodes.

Soil moisture dynamics modeling considering multi-layer root zone.

PubMed

Kumar, R; Shankar, V; Jat, M K

2013-01-01

The moisture uptake by plant from soil is a key process for plant growth and movement of water in the soil-plant system. A non-linear root water uptake (RWU) model was developed for a multi-layer crop root zone. The model comprised two parts: (1) model formulation and (2) moisture flow prediction. The developed model was tested for its efficiency in predicting moisture depletion in a non-uniform root zone. A field experiment on wheat (Triticum aestivum) was conducted in the sub-temperate sub-humid agro-climate of Solan, Himachal Pradesh, India. Model-predicted soil moisture parameters, i.e., moisture status at various depths, moisture depletion and soil moisture profile in the root zone, are in good agreement with experiment results. The results of simulation emphasize the utility of the RWU model across different agro-climatic regions. The model can be used for sound irrigation management especially in water-scarce humid, temperate, arid and semi-arid regions and can also be integrated with a water transport equation to predict the solute uptake by plant biomass.

Predicting drug hydrolysis based on moisture uptake in various packaging designs.

PubMed

Naversnik, Klemen; Bohanec, Simona

2008-12-18

An attempt was made to predict the stability of a moisture sensitive drug product based on the knowledge of the dependence of the degradation rate on tablet moisture. The moisture increase inside a HDPE bottle with the drug formulation was simulated with the sorption-desorption moisture transfer model, which, in turn, allowed an accurate prediction of the drug degradation kinetics. The stability prediction, obtained by computer simulation, was made in a considerably shorter time frame and required little resources compared to a conventional stability study. The prediction was finally upgraded to a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation, which allowed quantitative incorporation of uncertainty, stemming from various sources. The resulting distribution of the outcome of interest (amount of degradation product at expiry) is a comprehensive way of communicating the result along with its uncertainty, superior to single-value results or confidence intervals.

A comparison of soil moisture characteristics predicted by the Arya-Paris model with laboratory-measured data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arya, L. M.; Richter, J. C.; Davidson, S. A. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

Soil moisture characteristics predicted by the Arya-Paris model were compared with the laboratory measured data for 181 New Jersey soil horizons. For a number of soil horizons, the predicted and the measured moisture characteristic curves are almost coincident; for a large number of other horizons, despite some disparity, their shapes are strikingly similar. Uncertainties in the model input and laboratory measurement of the moisture characteristic are indicated, and recommendations for additional experimentation and testing are made.

Hidden markov model for the prediction of transmembrane proteins using MATLAB.

PubMed

Chaturvedi, Navaneet; Shanker, Sudhanshu; Singh, Vinay Kumar; Sinha, Dhiraj; Pandey, Paras Nath

2011-01-01

Since membranous proteins play a key role in drug targeting therefore transmembrane proteins prediction is active and challenging area of biological sciences. Location based prediction of transmembrane proteins are significant for functional annotation of protein sequences. Hidden markov model based method was widely applied for transmembrane topology prediction. Here we have presented a revised and a better understanding model than an existing one for transmembrane protein prediction. Scripting on MATLAB was built and compiled for parameter estimation of model and applied this model on amino acid sequence to know the transmembrane and its adjacent locations. Estimated model of transmembrane topology was based on TMHMM model architecture. Only 7 super states are defined in the given dataset, which were converted to 96 states on the basis of their length in sequence. Accuracy of the prediction of model was observed about 74 %, is a good enough in the area of transmembrane topology prediction. Therefore we have concluded the hidden markov model plays crucial role in transmembrane helices prediction on MATLAB platform and it could also be useful for drug discovery strategy. The database is available for free at bioinfonavneet@gmail.comvinaysingh@bhu.ac.in.

Low home ventilation rate in combination with moldy odor from the building structure increase the risk for allergic symptoms in children.

PubMed

Hägerhed-Engman, L; Sigsgaard, T; Samuelson, I; Sundell, J; Janson, S; Bornehag, C-G

2009-06-01

There are consistent findings on associations between asthma and allergy symptoms and residential mold and moisture. However, definitions of 'dampness' in studies are diverse because of differences in climate and building construction. Few studies have estimated mold problems inside the building structure by odor assessments. In a nested case-control study of 400 Swedish children, observations and measurements were performed in their homes by inspectors, and the children were examined by physicians for diagnoses of asthma, eczema, and rhinitis. In conclusion, we found an association between moldy odor along the skirting board and allergic symptoms among children, mainly rhinitis. No associations with any of the allergic symptoms were found for discoloured stains, 'floor dampness' or a general mold odor in the room. A moldy odor along the skirting board can be a proxy for hidden moisture problem inside the outer wall construction or in the foundation construction. There are indications that such dampness problems increase the risk for sensitization but the interpretation of data in respect of sensitization is difficult as about 80% of the children with rhinitis were sensitized. Furthermore, low ventilation rate in combination with moldy odor along the skirting board further increased the risk for three out of four studied outcomes, indicating that the ventilation rate is an effect modifier for indoor pollutants. This study showed that mold odor at the skirting board level is strongly associated with allergic symptoms among children. Such odor at that specific place can be seen as a proxy for some kind of hidden moisture or mold problem in the building structure, such as the foundation or wooden ground beam. In houses with odor along the skirting board, dismantling of the structure is required for an investigation of possible moisture damage, measurements, and choice of actions. In homes with low ventilation in combination with mold odor along the skirting board, there was even a higher risk of health effects. This emphasizes the need for the appropriate remediation as this is an ever increasing problem in poorly ventilated houses that are damp.

Artificial neural network with backpropagation learning to predict mean monthly total ozone in Arosa, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Bandyopadhyay, Goutami

2007-01-01

Present study deals with the mean monthly total ozone time series over Arosa, Switzerland. The study period is 1932-1971. First of all, the total ozone time series has been identified as a complex system and then Artificial Neural Networks models in the form of Multilayer Perceptron with back propagation learning have been developed. The models are Single-hidden-layer and Two-hidden-layer Perceptrons with sigmoid activation function. After sequential learning with learning rate 0.9 the peak total ozone period (February-May) concentrations of mean monthly total ozone have been predicted by the two neural net models. After training and validation, both of the models are found skillful. But, Two-hidden-layer Perceptron is found to be more adroit in predicting the mean monthly total ozone concentrations over the aforesaid period.

Dynamically generated N* and {Lambda}* resonances in the hidden charm sector around 4.3 GeV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu Jiajun; Departamento de Fisica Teorica and IFIC, Centro Mixto Universidad de Valencia-CSIC, Institutos de Investigacion de Paterna, Aptdo. 22085, E-46071 Valencia; Molina, R.

2011-07-15

The interactions of D-bar{Sigma}{sub c}-D-bar{Lambda}{sub c}, D-bar*{Sigma}{sub c}-D-bar*{Lambda}{sub c}, and related strangeness channels, are studied within the framework of the coupled-channel unitary approach with the local hidden gauge formalism. A series of meson-baryon dynamically generated relatively narrow N* and {Lambda}* resonances are predicted around 4.3 GeV in the hidden charm sector. We make estimates of production cross sections of these predicted resonances in p-barp collisions for the experiment of antiproton annihilation at Darmstadt (PANDA) at the forthcoming GSI Facility for Antiproton and Ion Research (FAIR) facility.

Moisture effects on the prediction performance of a single kernel near-infrared deoxynivalenol calibration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Effect of moisture content variation on the accuracy of single kernel deoxynivalenol (DON) prediction by near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was investigated. Sample moisture content (MC) considerably affected accuracy of the current NIR DON calibration by underestimating or over estimating DON at high...

Predicting root zone soil moisture with soil properties and satellite near-surface moisture data across the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldwin, D.; Manfreda, S.; Keller, K.; Smithwick, E. A. H.

2017-03-01

Satellite-based near-surface (0-2 cm) soil moisture estimates have global coverage, but do not capture variations of soil moisture in the root zone (up to 100 cm depth) and may be biased with respect to ground-based soil moisture measurements. Here, we present an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) hydrologic data assimilation system that predicts bias in satellite soil moisture data to support the physically based Soil Moisture Analytical Relationship (SMAR) infiltration model, which estimates root zone soil moisture with satellite soil moisture data. The SMAR-EnKF model estimates a regional-scale bias parameter using available in situ data. The regional bias parameter is added to satellite soil moisture retrievals before their use in the SMAR model, and the bias parameter is updated continuously over time with the EnKF algorithm. In this study, the SMAR-EnKF assimilates in situ soil moisture at 43 Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) monitoring locations across the conterminous U.S. Multivariate regression models are developed to estimate SMAR parameters using soil physical properties and the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) evapotranspiration data product as covariates. SMAR-EnKF root zone soil moisture predictions are in relatively close agreement with in situ observations when using optimal model parameters, with root mean square errors averaging 0.051 [cm3 cm-3] (standard error, s.e. = 0.005). The average root mean square error associated with a 20-fold cross-validation analysis with permuted SMAR parameter regression models increases moderately (0.082 [cm3 cm-3], s.e. = 0.004). The expected regional-scale satellite correction bias is negative in four out of six ecoregions studied (mean = -0.12 [-], s.e. = 0.002), excluding the Great Plains and Eastern Temperate Forests (0.053 [-], s.e. = 0.001). With its capability of estimating regional-scale satellite bias, the SMAR-EnKF system can predict root zone soil moisture over broad extents and has applications in drought predictions and other operational hydrologic modeling purposes.

Prediction of moisture variation during composting process: A comparison of mathematical models.

PubMed

Wang, Yongjiang; Ai, Ping; Cao, Hongliang; Liu, Zhigang

2015-10-01

This study was carried out to develop and compare three models for simulating the moisture content during composting. Model 1 described changes in water content using mass balance, while Model 2 introduced a liquid-gas transferred water term. Model 3 predicted changes in moisture content without complex degradation kinetics. Average deviations for Model 1-3 were 8.909, 7.422 and 5.374 kg m(-3) while standard deviations were 10.299, 8.374 and 6.095, respectively. The results showed that Model 1 is complex and involves more state variables, but can be used to reveal the effect of humidity on moisture content. Model 2 tested the hypothesis of liquid-gas transfer and was shown to be capable of predicting moisture content during composting. Model 3 could predict water content well without considering degradation kinetics. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improved Prediction of Quasi-Global Vegetation Conditions Using Remotely-Sensed Surface Soil Moisture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolten, John; Crow, Wade

2012-01-01

The added value of satellite-based surface soil moisture retrievals for agricultural drought monitoring is assessed by calculating the lagged rank correlation between remotely-sensed vegetation indices (VI) and soil moisture estimates obtained both before and after the assimilation of surface soil moisture retrievals derived from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) into a soil water balance model. Higher soil moisture/VI lag correlations imply an enhanced ability to predict future vegetation conditions using estimates of current soil moisture. Results demonstrate that the assimilation of AMSR-E surface soil moisture retrievals substantially improve the performance of a global drought monitoring system - particularly in sparsely-instrumented areas of the world where high-quality rainfall observations are unavailable.

SU-E-J-191: Motion Prediction Using Extreme Learning Machine in Image Guided Radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jia, J; Cao, R; Pei, X

Purpose: Real-time motion tracking is a critical issue in image guided radiotherapy due to the time latency caused by image processing and system response. It is of great necessity to fast and accurately predict the future position of the respiratory motion and the tumor location. Methods: The prediction of respiratory position was done based on the positioning and tracking module in ARTS-IGRT system which was developed by FDS Team (www.fds.org.cn). An approach involving with the extreme learning machine (ELM) was adopted to predict the future respiratory position as well as the tumor’s location by training the past trajectories. For themore » training process, a feed-forward neural network with one single hidden layer was used for the learning. First, the number of hidden nodes was figured out for the single layered feed forward network (SLFN). Then the input weights and hidden layer biases of the SLFN were randomly assigned to calculate the hidden neuron output matrix. Finally, the predicted movement were obtained by applying the output weights and compared with the actual movement. Breathing movement acquired from the external infrared markers was used to test the prediction accuracy. And the implanted marker movement for the prostate cancer was used to test the implementation of the tumor motion prediction. Results: The accuracy of the predicted motion and the actual motion was tested. Five volunteers with different breathing patterns were tested. The average prediction time was 0.281s. And the standard deviation of prediction accuracy was 0.002 for the respiratory motion and 0.001 for the tumor motion. Conclusion: The extreme learning machine method can provide an accurate and fast prediction of the respiratory motion and the tumor location and therefore can meet the requirements of real-time tumor-tracking in image guided radiotherapy.« less

A new Downscaling Approach for SMAP, SMOS and ASCAT by predicting sub-grid Soil Moisture Variability based on Soil Texture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montzka, C.; Rötzer, K.; Bogena, H. R.; Vereecken, H.

2017-12-01

Improving the coarse spatial resolution of global soil moisture products from SMOS, SMAP and ASCAT is currently an up-to-date topic. Soil texture heterogeneity is known to be one of the main sources of soil moisture spatial variability. A method has been developed that predicts the soil moisture standard deviation as a function of the mean soil moisture based on soil texture information. It is a closed-form expression using stochastic analysis of 1D unsaturated gravitational flow in an infinitely long vertical profile based on the Mualem-van Genuchten model and first-order Taylor expansions. With the recent development of high resolution maps of basic soil properties such as soil texture and bulk density, relevant information to estimate soil moisture variability within a satellite product grid cell is available. Here, we predict for each SMOS, SMAP and ASCAT grid cell the sub-grid soil moisture variability based on the SoilGrids1km data set. We provide a look-up table that indicates the soil moisture standard deviation for any given soil moisture mean. The resulting data set provides important information for downscaling coarse soil moisture observations of the SMOS, SMAP and ASCAT missions. Downscaling SMAP data by a field capacity proxy indicates adequate accuracy of the sub-grid soil moisture patterns.

Global-Scale Hydrology: Simple Characterization of Complex Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.

1999-01-01

Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMS) are unique and valuable tools for the analysis of large-scale hydrology. AGCM simulations of climate provide tremendous amounts of hydrological data with a spatial and temporal coverage unmatched by observation systems. To the extent that the AGCM behaves realistically, these data can shed light on the nature of the real world's hydrological cycle. In the first part of the seminar, I will describe the hydrological cycle in a typical AGCM, with some emphasis on the validation of simulated precipitation against observations. The second part of the seminar will focus on a key goal in large-scale hydrology studies, namely the identification of simple, overarching controls on hydrological behavior hidden amidst the tremendous amounts of data produced by the highly complex AGCM parameterizations. In particular, I will show that a simple 50-year-old climatological relation (and a recent extension we made to it) successfully predicts, to first order, both the annual mean and the interannual variability of simulated evaporation and runoff fluxes. The seminar will conclude with an example of a practical application of global hydrology studies. The accurate prediction of weather statistics several months in advance would have tremendous societal benefits, and conventional wisdom today points at the use of coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models for such seasonal-to-interannual prediction. Understanding the hydrological cycle in AGCMs is critical to establishing the potential for such prediction. Our own studies show, among other things, that soil moisture retention can lead to significant precipitation predictability in many midlatitude and tropical regions.

Towards soil property retrieval from space: Proof of concept using in situ observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandara, Ranmalee; Walker, Jeffrey P.; Rüdiger, Christoph

2014-05-01

Soil moisture is a key variable that controls the exchange of water and energy fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. However, the temporal evolution of soil moisture is neither easy to measure nor monitor at large scales because of its high spatial variability. This is mainly a result of the local variation in soil properties and vegetation cover. Thus, land surface models are normally used to predict the evolution of soil moisture and yet, despite their importance, these models are based on low-resolution soil property information or typical values. Therefore, the availability of more accurate and detailed soil parameter data than are currently available is vital, if regional or global soil moisture predictions are to be made with the accuracy required for environmental applications. The proposed solution is to estimate the soil hydraulic properties via model calibration to remotely sensed soil moisture observation, with in situ observations used as a proxy in this proof of concept study. Consequently, the feasibility is assessed, and the level of accuracy that can be expected determined, for soil hydraulic property estimation of duplex soil profiles in a semi-arid environment using near-surface soil moisture observations under naturally occurring conditions. The retrieved soil hydraulic parameters were then assessed by their reliability to predict the root zone soil moisture using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator model. When using parameters that were retrieved using soil moisture observations, the root zone soil moisture was predicted to within an accuracy of 0.04 m3/m3, which is an improvement of ∼0.025 m3/m3 on predictions that used published values or pedo-transfer functions.

Nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion with multiple hidden states for remaining useful life prediction of rechargeable batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong; Zhao, Yang; Yang, Fangfang; Tsui, Kwok-Leung

2017-09-01

Brownian motion with adaptive drift has attracted much attention in prognostics because its first hitting time is highly relevant to remaining useful life prediction and it follows the inverse Gaussian distribution. Besides linear degradation modeling, nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion has been developed to model nonlinear degradation. Moreover, the first hitting time distribution of the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion has been approximated by time-space transformation. In the previous studies, the drift coefficient is the only hidden state used in state space modeling of the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion. Besides the drift coefficient, parameters of a nonlinear function used in the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion should be treated as additional hidden states of state space modeling to make the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion more flexible. In this paper, a prognostic method based on nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion with multiple hidden states is proposed and then it is applied to predict remaining useful life of rechargeable batteries. 26 sets of rechargeable battery degradation samples are analyzed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed prognostic method. Moreover, some comparisons with a standard particle filter based prognostic method, a spherical cubature particle filter based prognostic method and two classic Bayesian prognostic methods are conducted to highlight the superiority of the proposed prognostic method. Results show that the proposed prognostic method has lower average prediction errors than the particle filter based prognostic methods and the classic Bayesian prognostic methods for battery remaining useful life prediction.

Method for evaluating moisture tensions of soils using spectral data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, John B. (Inventor)

1982-01-01

A method is disclosed which permits evaluation of soil moisture utilizing remote sensing. Spectral measurements at a plurality of different wavelengths are taken with respect to sample soils and the bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) measurements produced are submitted to regression analysis for development therefrom of predictable equations calculated for orderly relationships. Soil of unknown reflective and unknown soil moisture tension is thereafter analyzed for bidirectional reflectance and the resulting data utilized to determine the soil moisture tension of the soil as well as providing a prediction as to the bidirectional reflectance of the soil at other moisture tensions.

A Simplified Model of Moisture Transport in Hydrophilic Porous Media With Applications to Pharmaceutical Tablets.

PubMed

Klinzing, Gerard R; Zavaliangos, Antonios

2016-08-01

This work establishes a predictive model that explicitly recognizes microstructural parameters in the description of the overall mass uptake and local gradients of moisture into tablets. Model equations were formulated based on local tablet geometry to describe the transient uptake of moisture. An analytical solution to a simplified set of model equations was solved to predict the overall mass uptake and moisture gradients with the tablets. The analytical solution takes into account individual diffusion mechanisms in different scales of porosity and diffusion into the solid phase. The time constant of mass uptake was found to be a function of several key material properties, such as tablet relative density, pore tortuosity, and equilibrium moisture content of the material. The predictions of the model are in excellent agreement with experimental results for microcrystalline cellulose tablets without the need for parameter fitting. The model presented provides a new method to analyze the transient uptake of moisture into hydrophilic materials with the knowledge of only a few fundamental material and microstructural parameters. In addition, the model allows for quick and insightful predictions of moisture diffusion for a variety of practical applications including pharmaceutical tablets, porous polymer systems, or cementitious materials. Copyright © 2016 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Soil-Site Factors Affecting Southern Upland Oak Managment and Growth

Treesearch

John K. Francis

1980-01-01

Soil supplies trees with physical support, moisture, oxygen, and nutrients. Amount of moisture most limits tree growth; and soil and topographic factors such as texture and aspect, which influence available soil moisture. are most useful in predicting growth. Equations that include soil and topographic variables can be used to predict site index. Foresters can also...

Predicting duff and woody fuel consumed by prescribed fire in the Northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

James K. Brown; Michael A. Marsden; Kevin C. Ryan; Elizabeth D. Reinhardt

1985-01-01

Relationships for predicting duff reduction, mineral soil exposure, and consumption of downed woody fuel were determined to assist in planning prescribed fires. Independent variables included lower and entire duff moisture contents, loadings of downed woody fuels, duff depth, National Fire-Danger Rating System 1,000-hour moisture content, and Canadian Duff Moisture...

Contribution of Soil Moisture Information to Streamflow Prediction in the Snowmelt Season: A Continental-Scale Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichle, Rolf; Mahanama, Sarith; Koster, Randal; Lettenmaier, Dennis

2009-01-01

In areas dominated by winter snowcover, the prediction of streamflow during the snowmelt season may benefit from three pieces of information: (i) the accurate prediction of weather variability (precipitation, etc.) leading up to and during the snowmelt season, (ii) estimates of the amount of snow present during the winter season, and (iii) estimates of the amount of soil moisture underlying the snowpack during the winter season. The importance of accurate meteorological predictions and wintertime snow estimates is obvious. The contribution of soil moisture to streamflow prediction is more subtle yet potentially very important. If the soil is dry below the snowpack, a significant fraction of the snowmelt may be lost to streamflow and potential reservoir storage, since it may infiltrate the soil instead for later evaporation. Such evaporative losses are presumably smaller if the soil below the snowpack is wet. In this paper, we use a state-of-the-art land surface model to quantify the contribution of wintertime snow and soil moisture information -- both together and separately -- to skill in forecasting springtime streamflow. We find that soil moisture information indeed contributes significantly to streamflow prediction skill.

Prediction of Root Zone Soil Moisture using Remote Sensing Products and In-Situ Observation under Climate Change Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, G.; Panda, R. K.; Mohanty, B.

2015-12-01

Prediction of root zone soil moisture status at field level is vital for developing efficient agricultural water management schemes. In this study, root zone soil moisture was estimated across the Rana watershed in Eastern India, by assimilation of near-surface soil moisture estimate from SMOS satellite into a physically-based Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant (SWAP) model. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique coupled with SWAP model was used for assimilating the satellite soil moisture observation at different spatial scales. The universal triangle concept and artificial intelligence techniques were applied to disaggregate the SMOS satellite monitored near-surface soil moisture at a 40 km resolution to finer scale (1 km resolution), using higher spatial resolution of MODIS derived vegetation indices (NDVI) and land surface temperature (Ts). The disaggregated surface soil moisture were compared to ground-based measurements in diverse landscape using portable impedance probe and gravimetric samples. Simulated root zone soil moisture were compared with continuous soil moisture profile measurements at three monitoring stations. In addition, the impact of projected climate change on root zone soil moisture were also evaluated. The climate change projections of rainfall were analyzed for the Rana watershed from statistically downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The long-term root zone soil moisture dynamics were estimated by including a rainfall generator of likely scenarios. The predicted long term root zone soil moisture status at finer scale can help in developing efficient agricultural water management schemes to increase crop production, which lead to enhance the water use efficiency.

Downscaling Satellite Data for Predicting Catchment-scale Root Zone Soil Moisture with Ground-based Sensors and an Ensemble Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, H.; Baldwin, D. C.; Smithwick, E. A. H.

2015-12-01

Predicting root zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture (RZSM) content at a catchment-scale is essential for drought and flood predictions, irrigation planning, weather forecasting, and many other applications. Satellites, such as the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), can estimate near-surface (0-5 cm) soil moisture content globally at coarse spatial resolutions. We develop a hierarchical Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation modeling system to downscale satellite-based near-surface soil moisture and to estimate RZSM content across the Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory at a 1-m resolution in combination with ground-based soil moisture sensor data. In this example, a simple infiltration model within the EnKF-model has been parameterized for 6 soil-terrain units to forecast daily RZSM content in the catchment from 2009 - 2012 based on AMSRE. LiDAR-derived terrain variables define intra-unit RZSM variability using a novel covariance localization technique. This method also allows the mapping of uncertainty with our RZSM estimates for each time-step. A catchment-wide satellite-to-surface downscaling parameter, which nudges the satellite measurement closer to in situ near-surface data, is also calculated for each time-step. We find significant differences in predicted root zone moisture storage for different terrain units across the experimental time-period. Root mean square error from a cross-validation analysis of RZSM predictions using an independent dataset of catchment-wide in situ Time-Domain Reflectometry (TDR) measurements ranges from 0.060-0.096 cm3 cm-3, and the RZSM predictions are significantly (p < 0.05) correlated with TDR measurements [r = 0.47-0.68]. The predictive skill of this data assimilation system is similar to the Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Modeling (PIHM) system. Uncertainty estimates are significantly (p < 0.05) correlated to cross validation error during wet and dry conditions, but more so in dry summer seasons. Developing an EnKF-model system that downscales satellite data and predicts catchment-scale RZSM content is especially timely, given the anticipated release of SMAP surface moisture data in 2015.

Soil Moisture Memory in Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Suarez, Max J.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Water balance considerations at the soil surface lead to an equation that relates the autocorrelation of soil moisture in climate models to (1) seasonality in the statistics of the atmospheric forcing, (2) the variation of evaporation with soil moisture, (3) the variation of runoff with soil moisture, and (4) persistence in the atmospheric forcing, as perhaps induced by land atmosphere feedback. Geographical variations in the relative strengths of these factors, which can be established through analysis of model diagnostics and which can be validated to a certain extent against observations, lead to geographical variations in simulated soil moisture memory and thus, in effect, to geographical variations in seasonal precipitation predictability associated with soil moisture. The use of the equation to characterize controls on soil moisture memory is demonstrated with data from the modeling system of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project.

Does the stress-gradient hypothesis hold water? Disentangling spatial and temporal variation in plant effects on soil moisture in dryland systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butterfield, Bradley J.; Bradford, John B.; Armas, Cristina; Prieto, Ivan; Pugnaire, Francisco I.

2016-01-01

Taken together, the results of this simulation study suggest that plant effects on soil moisture are predictable based on relatively general relationships between precipitation inputs and differential evaporation and transpiration rates between plant and interspace microsites that are largely driven by temperature. In particular, this study highlights the importance of differentiating between temporal and spatial variation in weather and climate, respectively, in determining plant effects on available soil moisture. Rather than focusing on the somewhat coarse-scale predictions of the SGH, it may be more beneficial to explicitly incorporate plant effects on soil moisture into predictive models of plant-plant interaction outcomes in drylands.

An instrument for rapid, accurate, determination of fuel moisture content

Treesearch

Stephen S. Sackett

1980-01-01

Moisture contents of dead and living fuels are key variables in fire behavior. Accurate, real-time fuel moisture data are required for prescribed burning and wildfire behavior predictions. The convection oven method has become the standard for direct fuel moisture content determination. Efforts to quantify fuel moisture through indirect methods have not been...

Response of corrugated fiberboard to moisture flow : a 3-D finite element transient nonlinear analysis

Treesearch

Adeeb A. Rahman; Thomas J. Urbanik; Mustafa Mahamid

2003-01-01

Collapse of fiberboard packaging boxes, in the shipping industry, due to rise in humidity conditions is common and very costly. A 3D FE nonlinear model is developed to predict the moisture flow throughout a corrugated packaging fiberboard sandwich structure. The model predicts how the moisture diffusion will permeate through the layers of a fiberboard (medium and...

Impact of vegetation feedback at subseasonal & seasonal timescales on precipitation over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Wang, G.

2006-05-01

Soil moisture-vegetation-precipitation feedbacks tend to enhance soil moisture memory in some areas of the globe, which contributes to the subseasonal and seasonal climate prediction skill. In this study, the impact of vegetation on precipitation over North America is investigated using a coupled land-atmosphere model CAM3- CLM3. The coupled model has been modified to include a predictive vegetation phenology scheme and validated against the MODIS data. Vegetation phenology is modeled by updating the leaf area index (LAI) daily in response to cumulative and concurrent hydrometeorological conditions. First, driven with the climatological SST, a large group of 5-member ensembles of simulations from the late spring and summer to the end of year are generated with the different initial conditions of soil moisture. The impact of initial soil moisture anomalies on subsequent precipitation is examined with the predictive vegetation phenology scheme disabled/enabled ("SM"/"SM_Veg" ensembles). The simulated climate differences between "SM" and "SM_Veg" ensembles represent the role of vegetation in soil moisture-vegetation- precipitation feedback. Experiments in this study focus on how the response of precipitation to initial soil moisture anomalies depends on their characteristics, including the timing, magnitude, spatial coverage and vertical depth, and further how it is modified by the interactive vegetation. Our results, for example, suggest that the impact of late spring soil moisture anomalies is not evident in subsequent precipitation until early summer when local convective precipitation dominates. With the summer wet soil moisture anomalies, vegetation tends to enhance the positive feedback between soil moisture and precipitation, while vegetation tends to suppress such positive feedback with the late spring anomalies. Second, the impact of vegetation feedback is investigated by driving the model with the inter-annually varying monthly SST (1983-1994). With the predictive vegetation phenology disabled/enabled ("SM"/"SM_Veg" ensembles), the simulated climates are compared with the observation. This will present the role of an interactive or predictive vegetation phenology scheme in subseasonal and seasonal climate prediction. Specifically, the extreme climate events such as drought in 1988 and flood in 1993 over the Midwestern United States will be the focus of results analyses.

An Intelligent Ensemble Neural Network Model for Wind Speed Prediction in Renewable Energy Systems.

PubMed

Ranganayaki, V; Deepa, S N

2016-01-01

Various criteria are proposed to select the number of hidden neurons in artificial neural network (ANN) models and based on the criterion evolved an intelligent ensemble neural network model is proposed to predict wind speed in renewable energy applications. The intelligent ensemble neural model based wind speed forecasting is designed by averaging the forecasted values from multiple neural network models which includes multilayer perceptron (MLP), multilayer adaptive linear neuron (Madaline), back propagation neural network (BPN), and probabilistic neural network (PNN) so as to obtain better accuracy in wind speed prediction with minimum error. The random selection of hidden neurons numbers in artificial neural network results in overfitting or underfitting problem. This paper aims to avoid the occurrence of overfitting and underfitting problems. The selection of number of hidden neurons is done in this paper employing 102 criteria; these evolved criteria are verified by the computed various error values. The proposed criteria for fixing hidden neurons are validated employing the convergence theorem. The proposed intelligent ensemble neural model is applied for wind speed prediction application considering the real time wind data collected from the nearby locations. The obtained simulation results substantiate that the proposed ensemble model reduces the error value to minimum and enhances the accuracy. The computed results prove the effectiveness of the proposed ensemble neural network (ENN) model with respect to the considered error factors in comparison with that of the earlier models available in the literature.

An Intelligent Ensemble Neural Network Model for Wind Speed Prediction in Renewable Energy Systems

PubMed Central

Ranganayaki, V.; Deepa, S. N.

2016-01-01

Various criteria are proposed to select the number of hidden neurons in artificial neural network (ANN) models and based on the criterion evolved an intelligent ensemble neural network model is proposed to predict wind speed in renewable energy applications. The intelligent ensemble neural model based wind speed forecasting is designed by averaging the forecasted values from multiple neural network models which includes multilayer perceptron (MLP), multilayer adaptive linear neuron (Madaline), back propagation neural network (BPN), and probabilistic neural network (PNN) so as to obtain better accuracy in wind speed prediction with minimum error. The random selection of hidden neurons numbers in artificial neural network results in overfitting or underfitting problem. This paper aims to avoid the occurrence of overfitting and underfitting problems. The selection of number of hidden neurons is done in this paper employing 102 criteria; these evolved criteria are verified by the computed various error values. The proposed criteria for fixing hidden neurons are validated employing the convergence theorem. The proposed intelligent ensemble neural model is applied for wind speed prediction application considering the real time wind data collected from the nearby locations. The obtained simulation results substantiate that the proposed ensemble model reduces the error value to minimum and enhances the accuracy. The computed results prove the effectiveness of the proposed ensemble neural network (ENN) model with respect to the considered error factors in comparison with that of the earlier models available in the literature. PMID:27034973

Potential Predictability of U.S. Summer Climate with "Perfect" Soil Moisture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Fanglin; Kumar, Arun; Lau, K.-M.

2004-01-01

The potential predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation over the United States continent was assessed for a GCM forced by observed sea surface temperatures and an estimate of observed ground soil moisture contents. The latter was obtained by substituting the GCM simulated precipitation, which is used to drive the GCM's land-surface component, with observed pentad-mean precipitation at each time step of the model's integration. With this substitution, the simulated soil moisture correlates well with an independent estimate of observed soil moisture in all seasons over the entire US continent. Significant enhancements on the predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation were found in boreal late spring and summer over the US continent. Anomalous pattern correlations of precipitation and surface-air temperature over the US continent in the June-July-August season averaged for the 1979-2000 period increased from 0.01 and 0.06 for the GCM simulations without precipitation substitution to 0.23 and 0.3 1, respectively, for the simulations with precipitation substitution. Results provide an estimate for the limits of potential predictability if soil moisture variability is to be perfectly predicted. However, this estimate may be model dependent, and needs to be substantiated by other modeling groups.

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion.

PubMed

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Subepidermal moisture detection of pressure induced tissue damage on the trunk: The pressure ulcer detection study outcomes.

PubMed

Bates-Jensen, Barbara M; McCreath, Heather E; Patlan, Anabel

2017-05-01

We examined the relationship between subepidermal moisture measured using surface electrical capacitance and visual skin assessment of pressure ulcers at the trunk location (sacral, ischial tuberosities) in 417 nursing home residents residing in 19 facilities. Participants were on average older (mean age of 77 years), 58% were female, over half were ethnic minorities (29% African American, 12% Asian American, and 21% Hispanic), and at risk for pressure ulcers (mean score for Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Ulcer Risk of 15.6). Concurrent visual assessments and subepidermal moisture were obtained at the sacrum and right and left ischium weekly for 16 weeks. Visual assessment was categorized as normal, erythema, stage 1 pressure ulcer, Deep Tissue Injury or stage 2+ pressure ulcer using the National Pressure Ulcer Advisory Panel 2009 classification system. Incidence of any skin damage was 52%. Subepidermal moisture was measured with a dermal phase meter where higher readings indicate greater moisture (range: 0-70 tissue dielectric constant), with values increasing significantly with the presence of skin damage. Elevated subepidermal moisture values co-occurred with concurrent skin damage in generalized multinomial logistic models (to control for repeated observations) at the sacrum, adjusting for age and risk. Higher subepidermal moisture values were associated with visual damage 1 week later using similar models. Threshold values for subepidermal moisture were compared to visual ratings to predict skin damage 1 week later. Subepidermal moisture of 39 tissue dielectric constant units predicted 41% of future skin damage while visual ratings predicted 27%. Thus, this method of detecting early skin damage holds promise for clinicians, especially as it is objective and equally valid for all groups of patients. © 2017 by the Wound Healing Society.

Vis-NIR hyperspectral imaging in visualizing moisture distribution of mango slices during microwave-vacuum drying.

PubMed

Pu, Yuan-Yuan; Sun, Da-Wen

2015-12-01

Mango slices were dried by microwave-vacuum drying using a domestic microwave oven equipped with a vacuum desiccator inside. Two lab-scale hyperspectral imaging (HSI) systems were employed for moisture prediction. The Page and the Two-term thin-layer drying models were suitable to describe the current drying process with a fitting goodness of R(2)=0.978. Partial least square (PLS) was applied to correlate the mean spectrum of each slice and reference moisture content. With three waveband selection strategies, optimal wavebands corresponding to moisture prediction were identified. The best model RC-PLS-2 (Rp(2)=0.972 and RMSEP=4.611%) was implemented into the moisture visualization procedure. Moisture distribution map clearly showed that the moisture content in the central part of the mango slices was lower than that of other parts. The present study demonstrated that hyperspectral imaging was a useful tool for non-destructively and rapidly measuring and visualizing the moisture content during drying process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermogravimetric analysis for rapid assessment of moisture diffusivity in polydisperse powder and thin film matrices.

PubMed

Thirunathan, Praveena; Arnz, Patrik; Husny, Joeska; Gianfrancesco, Alessandro; Perdana, Jimmy

2018-03-01

Accurate description of moisture diffusivity is key to precisely understand and predict moisture transfer behaviour in a matrix. Unfortunately, measuring moisture diffusivity is not trivial, especially at low moisture values and/or elevated temperatures. This paper presents a novel experimental procedure to accurately measure moisture diffusivity based on thermogravimetric approach. The procedure is capable to measure diffusivity even at elevated temperatures (>70°C) and low moisture values (>1%). Diffusivity was extracted from experimental data based on "regular regime approach". The approach was tailored to determine diffusivity from thin film and from poly-dispersed powdered samples. Subsequently, measured diffusivity was validated by comparing to available literature data, showing good agreement. Ability of this approach to accurately measure diffusivity at a wider range of temperatures provides better insight on temperature dependency of diffusivity. Thus, this approach can be crucial to ensure good accuracy of moisture transfer description/prediction especially when involving elevated temperatures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of 3 models of 1-hr timelag fuel moisture in Hawaii

Treesearch

D.R. Weise; F.M. Fujioka; R.M. Nelson

2005-01-01

The U.S. National Fire Danger Rating System currently uses a moisture diffusion model developed by Fosberg to predict fine  fuel moisture in woody fuels. Nelson recently developed a fuel moisture model that includes functions for both heat and moisture  transfer. Fuel moisture samples were collected in Hawaii hourly for up to 96 h for three litter, one herbaceous, and...

Effective moisture penetration depth model for residential buildings: Sensitivity analysis and guidance on model inputs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woods, Jason; Winkler, Jon

Moisture buffering of building materials has a significant impact on the building's indoor humidity, and building energy simulations need to model this buffering to accurately predict the humidity. Researchers requiring a simple moisture-buffering approach typically rely on the effective-capacitance model, which has been shown to be a poor predictor of actual indoor humidity. This paper describes an alternative two-layer effective moisture penetration depth (EMPD) model and its inputs. While this model has been used previously, there is a need to understand the sensitivity of this model to uncertain inputs. In this paper, we use the moisture-adsorbent materials exposed to themore » interior air: drywall, wood, and carpet. We use a global sensitivity analysis to determine which inputs are most influential and how the model's prediction capability degrades due to uncertainty in these inputs. We then compare the model's humidity prediction with measured data from five houses, which shows that this model, and a set of simple inputs, can give reasonable prediction of the indoor humidity.« less

Effective moisture penetration depth model for residential buildings: Sensitivity analysis and guidance on model inputs

DOE PAGES

Woods, Jason; Winkler, Jon

2018-01-31

Moisture buffering of building materials has a significant impact on the building's indoor humidity, and building energy simulations need to model this buffering to accurately predict the humidity. Researchers requiring a simple moisture-buffering approach typically rely on the effective-capacitance model, which has been shown to be a poor predictor of actual indoor humidity. This paper describes an alternative two-layer effective moisture penetration depth (EMPD) model and its inputs. While this model has been used previously, there is a need to understand the sensitivity of this model to uncertain inputs. In this paper, we use the moisture-adsorbent materials exposed to themore » interior air: drywall, wood, and carpet. We use a global sensitivity analysis to determine which inputs are most influential and how the model's prediction capability degrades due to uncertainty in these inputs. We then compare the model's humidity prediction with measured data from five houses, which shows that this model, and a set of simple inputs, can give reasonable prediction of the indoor humidity.« less

Ecohydrological drought monitoring and prediction using a land data assimilation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawada, Y.; Koike, T.

2017-12-01

Despite the importance of the ecological and agricultural aspects of severe droughts, few drought monitor and prediction systems can forecast the deficit of vegetation growth. To address this issue, we have developed a land data assimilation system (LDAS) which can simultaneously simulate soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. By assimilating satellite-observed passive microwave brightness temperature, which is sensitive to both surface soil moisture and vegetation water content, we can significantly improve the skill of a land surface model to simulate surface soil moisture, root zone soil moisture, and leaf area index (LAI). We run this LDAS to generate a global ecohydrological land surface reanalysis product. In this presentation, we will demonstrate how useful this new reanalysis product is to monitor and analyze the historical mega-droughts. In addition, using the analyses of soil moistures and LAI as initial conditions, we can forecast the ecological and hydrological conditions in the middle of droughts. We will present our recent effort to develop a near real time ecohydrological drought monitoring and prediction system in Africa by combining the LDAS and the atmospheric seasonal prediction.

Historical precipitation predictably alters the shape and magnitude of microbial functional response to soil moisture.

PubMed

Averill, Colin; Waring, Bonnie G; Hawkes, Christine V

2016-05-01

Soil moisture constrains the activity of decomposer soil microorganisms, and in turn the rate at which soil carbon returns to the atmosphere. While increases in soil moisture are generally associated with increased microbial activity, historical climate may constrain current microbial responses to moisture. However, it is not known if variation in the shape and magnitude of microbial functional responses to soil moisture can be predicted from historical climate at regional scales. To address this problem, we measured soil enzyme activity at 12 sites across a broad climate gradient spanning 442-887 mm mean annual precipitation. Measurements were made eight times over 21 months to maximize sampling during different moisture conditions. We then fit saturating functions of enzyme activity to soil moisture and extracted half saturation and maximum activity parameter values from model fits. We found that 50% of the variation in maximum activity parameters across sites could be predicted by 30-year mean annual precipitation, an indicator of historical climate, and that the effect is independent of variation in temperature, soil texture, or soil carbon concentration. Based on this finding, we suggest that variation in the shape and magnitude of soil microbial response to soil moisture due to historical climate may be remarkably predictable at regional scales, and this approach may extend to other systems. If historical contingencies on microbial activities prove to be persistent in the face of environmental change, this approach also provides a framework for incorporating historical climate effects into biogeochemical models simulating future global change scenarios. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Advances in modeling sorption and diffusion of moisture in porous reactive materials.

PubMed

Harley, Stephen J; Glascoe, Elizabeth A; Lewicki, James P; Maxwell, Robert S

2014-06-23

Water-vapor-uptake experiments were performed on a silica-filled poly(dimethylsiloxane) (PDMS) network and modeled by using two different approaches. The data was modeled by using established methods and the model parameters were used to predict moisture uptake in a sample. The predictions are reasonably good, but not outstanding; many of the shortcomings of the modeling are discussed. A high-fidelity modeling approach is derived and used to improve the modeling of moisture uptake and diffusion. Our modeling approach captures the physics and kinetics of diffusion and adsorption/desorption, simultaneously. It predicts uptake better than the established method; more importantly, it is also able to predict outgassing. The material used for these studies is a filled-PDMS network; physical interpretations concerning the sorption and diffusion of moisture in this network are discussed. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A semi-mechanistic model of dead fine fuel moisture for Temperate and Mediterranean ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Resco de Dios, Víctor; Fellows, Aaron; Boer, Matthias; Bradstock, Ross; Nolan, Rachel; Goulden, Michel

2014-05-01

Fire is a major disturbance in terrestrial ecosystems globally. It has an enormous economic and social cost, and leads to fatalities in the worst cases. The moisture content of the vegetation (fuel moisture) is one of the main determinants of fire risk. Predicting the moisture content of dead and fine fuel (< 2.5 cm in diameter) is particularly important, as this is often the most important component of the fuel complex for fire propagation. A variety of drought indices, empirical and mechanistic models have been proposed to model fuel moisture. A commonality across these different approaches is that they have been neither validated across large temporal datasets nor validated across broadly different vegetation types. Here, we present the results of a study performed at 6 locations in California, USA (5 sites) and New South Wales, Australia (1 site), where 10-hours fuel moisture content was continuously measured every 30 minutes during one full year at each site. We observed that drought indices did not accurately predict fuel moisture, and that empirical and mechanistic models both needed site-specific calibrations, which hinders their global application as indices of fuel moisture. We developed a novel, single equation and semi-mechanistic model, based on atmospheric vapor-pressure deficit. Across sites and years, mean absolute error (MAE) of predicted fuel moisture was 4.7%. MAE dropped <1% in the critical range of fuel moisture <10%. The high simplicity, accuracy and precision of our model makes it suitable for a wide range of applications: from operational purposes, to global vegetation models.

Dielectric properties for prediction of moisture content in Vidalia onions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Microwave Sensing provides a means for nondestructively determining the amount of moisture in materials by sensing the dielectric properties of the material. In this study, dielectric properties of Vidalia onions were analyzed for moisture dependence at 13.36 GHz and 23°C for moisture content betwee...

Remote sensing as a tool in assessing soil moisture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, C. W.

1978-01-01

The effects of soil moisture as it relates to agriculture is briefly discussed. The use of remote sensing to predict scheduling of irrigation, runoff and soil erosion which contributes to the prediction of crop yield is also discussed.

Predicting Soil Salinity with Vis–NIR Spectra after Removing the Effects of Soil Moisture Using External Parameter Orthogonalization

PubMed Central

Liu, Ya; Pan, Xianzhang; Wang, Changkun; Li, Yanli; Shi, Rongjie

2015-01-01

Robust models for predicting soil salinity that use visible and near-infrared (vis–NIR) reflectance spectroscopy are needed to better quantify soil salinity in agricultural fields. Currently available models are not sufficiently robust for variable soil moisture contents. Thus, we used external parameter orthogonalization (EPO), which effectively projects spectra onto the subspace orthogonal to unwanted variation, to remove the variations caused by an external factor, e.g., the influences of soil moisture on spectral reflectance. In this study, 570 spectra between 380 and 2400 nm were obtained from soils with various soil moisture contents and salt concentrations in the laboratory; 3 soil types × 10 salt concentrations × 19 soil moisture levels were used. To examine the effectiveness of EPO, we compared the partial least squares regression (PLSR) results established from spectra with and without EPO correction. The EPO method effectively removed the effects of moisture, and the accuracy and robustness of the soil salt contents (SSCs) prediction model, which was built using the EPO-corrected spectra under various soil moisture conditions, were significantly improved relative to the spectra without EPO correction. This study contributes to the removal of soil moisture effects from soil salinity estimations when using vis–NIR reflectance spectroscopy and can assist others in quantifying soil salinity in the future. PMID:26468645

Soil moisture and evapotranspiration predictions using Skylab data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, V. I. (Principal Investigator); Moore, D. G.; Horton, M. L.; Russell, M. J.

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Multispectral reflectance and emittance data from the Skylab workshop were evaluated for prediction of evapotranspiration and soil moisture for an irrigated region of southern Texas. Wavelengths greater than 2.1 microns were required to spectrally distinguish between wet and dry fallow surfaces. Thermal data provided a better estimate of soil moisture than did data from the reflective bands. Thermal data were dependent on soil moisture but not on the type of agricultural land use. The emittance map, when used in conjunction with existing models, did provide an estimate of evapotranspiration rates. Surveys of areas of high soil moisture can be accomplished with space altitude thermal data. Thermal data will provide a reliable input into irrigation scheduling.

Something Old, Something New: A Developmental Transition from Familiarity to Novelty Preferences with Hidden Objects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shinskey, Jeanne L.; Munakata, Yuko

2010-01-01

Novelty seeking is viewed as adaptive, and novelty preferences in infancy predict cognitive performance into adulthood. Yet 7-month-olds prefer familiar stimuli to novel ones when searching for hidden objects, in contrast to their strong novelty preferences with visible objects (Shinskey & Munakata, 2005). According to a graded representations…

Early Prediction of Students' Grade Point Averages at Graduation: A Data Mining Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tekin, Ahmet

2014-01-01

Problem Statement: There has recently been interest in educational databases containing a variety of valuable but sometimes hidden data that can be used to help less successful students to improve their academic performance. The extraction of hidden information from these databases often implements aspects of the educational data mining (EDM)…

Prediction of narrow N* and {Lambda}* with hidden charm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu Jiajun; Departamento de Fisica Teorica and IFIC, Centro Mixto Universidad de Valencia-CSIC, Institutos de Investigacion de Paterna, Aptdo. 22085, 46071 Valencia; Molina, R.

2011-10-24

The interaction between various charmed mesons and charmed baryons, such as D-bar{Sigma}{sub c}-D-bar{Lambda}{sub c}, D-bar*{Sigma}{sub c}-D-bar*{Lambda}{sub c}, and related strangeness channels, are studied within the framework of the coupled channel unitary approach with the local hidden gauge formalism. Six narrow N* and {Lambda}* resonances are dynamically generated with mass above 4 GeV and width smaller than 100 MeV. These predicted new resonances definitely cannot be accommodated by quark models with three constituent quarks. We make estimates of production cross sections of these predicted resonances in p-barp collisions for PANDA at the forthcoming FAIR facility.

Accelerating the discovery of hidden two-dimensional magnets using machine learning and first principle calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyazato, Itsuki; Tanaka, Yuzuru; Takahashi, Keisuke

2018-02-01

Two-dimensional (2D) magnets are explored in terms of data science and first principle calculations. Machine learning determines four descriptors for predicting the magnetic moments of 2D materials within reported 216 2D materials data. With the trained machine, 254 2D materials are predicted to have high magnetic moments. First principle calculations are performed to evaluate the predicted 254 2D materials where eight undiscovered stable 2D materials with high magnetic moments are revealed. The approach taken in this work indicates that undiscovered materials can be surfaced by utilizing data science and materials data, leading to an innovative way of discovering hidden materials.

Uncovering hidden nodes in complex networks in the presence of noise

PubMed Central

Su, Ri-Qi; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Wang, Xiao; Do, Younghae

2014-01-01

Ascertaining the existence of hidden objects in a complex system, objects that cannot be observed from the external world, not only is curiosity-driven but also has significant practical applications. Generally, uncovering a hidden node in a complex network requires successful identification of its neighboring nodes, but a challenge is to differentiate its effects from those of noise. We develop a completely data-driven, compressive-sensing based method to address this issue by utilizing complex weighted networks with continuous-time oscillatory or discrete-time evolutionary-game dynamics. For any node, compressive sensing enables accurate reconstruction of the dynamical equations and coupling functions, provided that time series from this node and all its neighbors are available. For a neighboring node of the hidden node, this condition cannot be met, resulting in abnormally large prediction errors that, counterintuitively, can be used to infer the existence of the hidden node. Based on the principle of differential signal, we demonstrate that, when strong noise is present, insofar as at least two neighboring nodes of the hidden node are subject to weak background noise only, unequivocal identification of the hidden node can be achieved. PMID:24487720

A mechanistic model for the prediction of in-use moisture uptake by packaged dosage forms.

PubMed

Remmelgas, Johan; Simonutti, Anne-Laure; Ronkvist, Asa; Gradinarsky, Lubomir; Löfgren, Anders

2013-01-30

A mechanistic model for the prediction of in-use moisture uptake of solid dosage forms in bottles is developed. The model considers moisture transport into the bottle and moisture uptake by the dosage form both when the bottle is closed and when it is open. Experiments are carried out by placing tablets and desiccant canisters in bottles and monitoring their moisture content. Each bottle is opened once a day to remove one tablet or desiccant canister. Opening the bottle to remove a tablet or canister also causes some exchange of air between the bottle headspace and the environment. In order to ascertain how this air exchange might depend on the customer, tablets and desiccant canisters are removed from the bottles by either carefully removing only one or by pouring all of the tablets or desiccant canisters out of the bottle, removing one, and pouring the remaining ones back into the bottle. The predictions of the model are found to be in good agreement with experimental data for moisture sorption by desiccant canisters. Moreover, it is found experimentally that the manner in which the tablets or desiccant canisters were removed does not appreciably affect their moisture content. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of monthly-seasonal precipitation using coupled SVD patterns between soil moisture and subsequent precipitation

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu

2003-01-01

It was suggested in a recent statistical correlation analysis that predictability of monthly-seasonal precipitation could be improved by using coupled singular value decomposition (SVD) pattems between soil moisture and precipitation instead of their values at individual locations. This study provides predictive evidence for this suggestion by comparing skills of two...

Responses of dead forest fuel moisture to climate change

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu

2016-01-01

Forest fuel moisture is an important factor for wildland fire behavior. Predicting future wildfire trends and controlled burned conditions is essential to effective natural resource management, but the associated effects of forest fuel moisture remain uncertain. This study investigates the responses of dead forest fuel moisture to climate change in the...

Predicting the potential moisture ingress characteristics of polyisobutylene based edge seals (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kempe, Michael D.

2016-09-01

Photovoltaic devices are often sensitive to moisture and must be packaged in such a way as to limit moisture ingress for 25 years or more. Typically, this is accomplished through the use of impermeable front and backsheets (e.g., glass sheets or metal foils). However, this will still allow moisture ingress between the sheets from the edges. Attempts to hermetically seal with a glass frit or similarly welded bonds at the edge have had problems with costs and mechanical strength. Because of this, low diffusivity polyisobutylene materials filled with desiccant are typically used. Although it is well known that these materials will substantially delay moisture ingress, correlating that to outdoor exposure has been difficult. Here, we use moisture ingress measurements at different temperatures and relative humidities to find fit parameters for a moisture ingress model for an edge-seal material. Then, using meteorological data, a finite element model is used to predict the moisture ingress profiles for hypothetical modules deployed in different climates and mounting conditions, assuming no change in properties of the edge-seal as a function of aging.

Determining soil volumetric moisture content using time domain reflectometry

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-02-01

Time domain reflectometry (TDR) is a technique used to measure indirectly the in situ volumetric moisture content of soil. Current research provides a variety of prediction equations that estimate the volumetric moisture content using the dielectric ...

Microwave remote sensing of soil moisture, volume 1. [Guymon, Oklahoma and Dalhart, Texas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcfarland, M. J. (Principal Investigator); Theis, S. W.; Rosenthal, W. D.; Jones, C. L.

1982-01-01

Multifrequency sensor data from NASA's C-130 aircraft were used to determine which of the all weather microwave sensors demonstrated the highest correlation to surface soil moisture over optimal bare soil conditions, and to develop and test techniques which use visible/infrared sensors to compensate for the vegetation effect in this sensor's response to soil moisture. The L-band passive microwave radiometer was found to be the most suitable single sensor system to estimate soil moisture over bare fields. The perpendicular vegetation index (PVI) as determined from the visible/infrared sensors was useful as a measure of the vegetation effect on the L-band radiometer response to soil moisture. A linear equation was developed to estimate percent field capacity as a function of L-band emissivity and the vegetation index. The prediction algorithm improves the estimation of moisture significantly over predictions from L-band emissivity alone.

Assimilating soil moisture into an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

2017-04-01

Several modelling studies reported potential impacts of soil moisture anomalies on regional climate. In particular for short prediction periods, perturbations of the soil moisture state may result in significant alteration of surface temperature in the following season. However, it is not clear yet whether or not soil moisture anomalies affect climate also on larger temporal and spatial scales. In an earlier study, we showed that soil moisture anomalies can persist for several seasons in the deeper soil layers of a land surface model. Additionally, those anomalies can influence root zone moisture, in particular during explicitly dry or wet periods. Thus, one prerequisite for predictability, namely the existence of long term memory, is evident for simulated soil moisture and might be exploited to improve climate predictions. The second prerequisite is the sensitivity of the climate system to soil moisture. In order to investigate this sensitivity for decadal simulations, we implemented a soil moisture assimilation scheme into the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The assimilation scheme is based on a simple nudging algorithm and updates the surface soil moisture state once per day. In our experiments, the MPI-ESM is used which includes model components for the interactive simulation of atmosphere, land and ocean. Artificial assimilation data is created from a control simulation to nudge the MPI-ESM towards predominantly dry and wet states. First analyses are focused on the impact of the assimilation on land surface variables and reveal distinct differences in the long-term mean values between wet and dry state simulations. Precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff are larger in the wet state compared to the dry state, resulting in an increased moisture transport from the land to atmosphere and ocean. Consequently, surface temperatures are lower in the wet state simulations by more than one Kelvin. In terms of spatial pattern, the largest differences between both simulations are seen for continental areas, while regions with a maritime climate are least sensitive to soil moisture assimilation.

Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Seasonal Weather Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Suarez, Max J.; Houser, Paul (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The potential role of soil moisture initialization in seasonal forecasting is illustrated through ensembles of simulations with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) model. For each boreal summer during 1997-2001, we generated two 16-member ensembles of 3-month simulations. The first, "AMIP-style" ensemble establishes the degree to which a perfect prediction of SSTs would contribute to the seasonal prediction of precipitation and temperature over continents. The second ensemble is identical to the first, except that the land surface is also initialized with "realistic" soil moisture contents through the continuous prior application (within GCM simulations leading up to the start of the forecast period) of a daily observational precipitation data set and the associated avoidance of model drift through the scaling of all surface prognostic variables. A comparison of the two ensembles shows that soil moisture initialization has a statistically significant impact on summertime precipitation and temperature over only a handful of continental regions. These regions agree, to first order, with regions that satisfy three conditions: (1) a tendency toward large initial soil moisture anomalies, (2) a strong sensitivity of evaporation to soil moisture, and (3) a strong sensitivity of precipitation to evaporation. The degree to which the initialization improves forecasts relative to observations is mixed, reflecting a critical need for the continued development of model parameterizations and data analysis strategies.

Prediction of some physical and drying properties of terebinth fruit (Pistacia atlantica L.) using Artificial Neural Networks.

PubMed

Kaveh, Mohammad; Chayjan, Reza Amiri

2014-01-01

Drying of terebinth fruit was conducted to provide microbiological stability, reduce product deterioration due to chemical reactions, facilitate storage and lower transportation costs. Because terebinth fruit is susceptible to heat, the selection of a suitable drying technology is a challenging task. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used as a nonlinear mapping structures for modelling and prediction of some physical and drying properties of terebinth fruit. Drying characteristics of terebinth fruit with an initial moisture content of 1.16 (d.b.) was studied in an infrared fluidized bed dryer. Different levels of air temperatures (40, 55 and 70°C), air velocities (0.93, 1.76 and 2.6 m/s) and infrared (IR) radiation powers (500, 1000 and 1500 W) were applied. In the present study, the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for predicting the drying moisture diffusivity, energy consumption, shrinkage, drying rate and moisture ratio (output parameter for ANN modelling) was investigated. Air temperature, air velocity, IR radiation and drying time were considered as input parameters. The results revealed that to predict drying rate and moisture ratio a network with the TANSIG-LOGSIG-TANSIG transfer function and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) training algorithm made the most accurate predictions for the terebinth fruit drying. The best results for ANN at predications were R2 = 0.9678 for drying rate, R2 = 0.9945 for moisture ratio, R2 = 0.9857 for moisture diffusivity and R2 = 0.9893 for energy consumption. Results indicated that artificial neural network can be used as an alternative approach for modelling and predicting of terebinth fruit drying parameters with high correlation. Also ANN can be used in optimization of the process.

Agricultural drought in a future climate: results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guiling

2005-12-01

This study examines the impact of greenhouse gas warming on soil moisture based on predictions of 15 global climate models by comparing the after-stabilization climate in the SRESA1b experiment with the pre-industrial control climate. The models are consistent in predicting summer dryness and winter wetness in only part of the northern middle and high latitudes. Slightly over half of the models predict year-round wetness in central Eurasia and/or year-round dryness in Siberia and mid-latitude Northeast Asia. One explanation is offered that relates such lack of seasonality to the carryover effect of soil moisture storage from season to season. In the tropics and subtropics, a decrease of soil moisture is the dominant response. The models are especially consistent in predicting drier soil over the southwest North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, Australia, and the South Africa in all seasons, and over much of the Amazon and West Africa in the June July August (JJA) season and the Asian monsoon region in the December January February (DJF) season. Since the only major areas of future wetness predicted with a high level of model consistency are part of the northern middle and high latitudes during the non-growing season, it is suggested that greenhouse gas warming will cause a worldwide agricultural drought. Over regions where there is considerable consistency among the analyzed models in predicting the sign of soil moisture changes, there is a wide range of magnitudes of the soil moisture response, indicating a high degree of model dependency in terrestrial hydrological sensitivity. A major part of the inter-model differences in the sensitivity of soil moisture response are attributable to differences in land surface parameterization.

Rapid prediction of single green coffee bean moisture and lipid content by hyperspectral imaging.

PubMed

Caporaso, Nicola; Whitworth, Martin B; Grebby, Stephen; Fisk, Ian D

2018-06-01

Hyperspectral imaging (1000-2500 nm) was used for rapid prediction of moisture and total lipid content in intact green coffee beans on a single bean basis. Arabica and Robusta samples from several growing locations were scanned using a "push-broom" system. Hypercubes were segmented to select single beans, and average spectra were measured for each bean. Partial Least Squares regression was used to build quantitative prediction models on single beans (n = 320-350). The models exhibited good performance and acceptable prediction errors of ∼0.28% for moisture and ∼0.89% for lipids. This study represents the first time that HSI-based quantitative prediction models have been developed for coffee, and specifically green coffee beans. In addition, this is the first attempt to build such models using single intact coffee beans. The composition variability between beans was studied, and fat and moisture distribution were visualized within individual coffee beans. This rapid, non-destructive approach could have important applications for research laboratories, breeding programmes, and for rapid screening for industry.

Improved Assimilation of Streamflow and Satellite Soil Moisture with the Evolutionary Particle Filter and Geostatistical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Hongxiang; Moradkhani, Hamid; Abbaszadeh, Peyman

2017-04-01

Assimilation of satellite soil moisture and streamflow data into hydrologic models using has received increasing attention over the past few years. Currently, these observations are increasingly used to improve the model streamflow and soil moisture predictions. However, the performance of this land data assimilation (DA) system still suffers from two limitations: 1) satellite data scarcity and quality; and 2) particle weight degeneration. In order to overcome these two limitations, we propose two possible solutions in this study. First, the general Gaussian geostatistical approach is proposed to overcome the limitation in the space/time resolution of satellite soil moisture products thus improving their accuracy at uncovered/biased grid cells. Secondly, an evolutionary PF approach based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), the so-called EPF-MCMC, is developed to further reduce weight degeneration and improve the robustness of the land DA system. This study provides a detailed analysis of the joint and separate assimilation of streamflow and satellite soil moisture into a distributed Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model, with the use of recently developed EPF-MCMC and the general Gaussian geostatistical approach. Performance is assessed over several basins in the USA selected from Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) and located in different climate regions. The results indicate that: 1) the general Gaussian approach can predict the soil moisture at uncovered grid cells within the expected satellite data quality threshold; 2) assimilation of satellite soil moisture inferred from the general Gaussian model can significantly improve the soil moisture predictions; and 3) in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic measures, the EPF-MCMC can achieve better streamflow predictions. These results recommend that the geostatistical model is a helpful tool to aid the remote sensing technique and the EPF-MCMC is a reliable and effective DA approach in hydrologic applications.

Predicting moisture-induced damage to asphaltic concrete : field evaluation phase, interim report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-01-01

Virginia is one of seven state and federal agencies participating in a field evaluation of a stripping test method developed under NCHRP Project 4-8 (3), "Predicting Moisture- Induced Damage to Asphaltic Concrete." The test method is being used to ev...

Further experimentation on bubble generation during transformer overload

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oommen, T.V.

1992-03-01

This report covers additional work done during 1990 and 1991 on gas bubble generation under overload conditions. To improve visual bubble detection, a single disc coil was used. To further improve detection, a corona device was also used which signaled the onset of corona activity in the early stages of bubble formation. A total of fourteen model tests were conducted, half of which used the Inertaire system, and the remaining, a conservator (COPS). Moisture content of paper in the coil varied from 1.0% to 8.0%; gas (nitrogen) content varied from 1.0% to 8.8%. The results confirmed earlier observations that themore » mathematical bubble prediction model was not valid for high gas content model with relatively low moisture levels in the coil. An empirical relationship was formulated to accurately predict bubble evolution temperatures from known moisture and gas content values. For low moisture content models (below 2%), the simple Piper relationship was sufficient to predict bubble evolution temperatures, regardless of gas content. Moisture in the coil appears to be the key factor in bubble generation. Gas blanketed (Inertaire) systems do not appear to be prone to premature bubble generation from overloads as previously thought. The new bubble prediction model reveals that for a coil with 2% moisture, the bubble evolution temperature would be about 140{degrees}C. Since old transformers in service may have as much as 2% moisture in paper, the 140{degrees}C bubble evolution temperature may be taken as the lower limit of bubble evolution temperature under overload conditions for operating transformers. Drier insulation would raise the bubble evolution temperature.« less

Predicting Fire Susceptibility in the Forests of Amazonia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nepstad, Daniel C.; Brown, I. Foster; Setzer, Alberto

2000-01-01

Although fire is the single greatest threat to the ecological integrity of Amazon forests, our ability to predict the occurrence of Amazon forest fires is rudimentary. Part of the difficulty encountered in making such predictions is the remarkable capacity of Amazon forests to tolerate drought by tapping moisture stored in deep soil. These forests can avoid drought-induced leaf shedding by withdrawing moisture to depths of 8 meters and more. Hence, the absorption of deep soil moisture allows these forests to maintain their leaf canopies following droughts of several months duration, thereby maintaining the deep shade and high relative humidity of the forest interior that prevents these ecosystems from burning. But the drought- and fire-avoidance that is conferred by this deep-rooting phenomenon is not unlimited. During successive years of drought, such as those provoked by El Nino episodes, deep soil moisture can be depleted, and drought-induced leaf shedding begins. The goal of this project was to incorporate this knowledge of Amazon forest fire ecology into a predictive model of forest flammability.

Integrating effective drought index (EDI) and remote sensing derived parameters for agricultural drought assessment and prediction in Bundelkhand region of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padhee, S. K.; Nikam, B. R.; Aggarwal, S. P.; Garg, V.

2014-11-01

Drought is an extreme condition due to moisture deficiency and has adverse effect on society. Agricultural drought occurs when restraining soil moisture produces serious crop stress and affects the crop productivity. The soil moisture regime of rain-fed agriculture and irrigated agriculture behaves differently on both temporal and spatial scale, which means the impact of meteorologically and/or hydrological induced agriculture drought will be different in rain-fed and irrigated areas. However, there is a lack of agricultural drought assessment system in Indian conditions, which considers irrigated and rain-fed agriculture spheres as separate entities. On the other hand recent advancements in the field of earth observation through different satellite based remote sensing have provided researchers a continuous monitoring of soil moisture, land surface temperature and vegetation indices at global scale, which can aid in agricultural drought assessment/monitoring. Keeping this in mind, the present study has been envisaged with the objective to develop agricultural drought assessment and prediction technique by spatially and temporally assimilating effective drought index (EDI) with remote sensing derived parameters. The proposed technique takes in to account the difference in response of rain-fed and irrigated agricultural system towards agricultural drought in the Bundelkhand region (The study area). The key idea was to achieve the goal by utilizing the integrated scenarios from meteorological observations and soil moisture distribution. EDI condition maps were prepared from daily precipitation data recorded by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), distributed within the study area. With the aid of frequent MODIS products viz. vegetation indices (VIs), and land surface temperature (LST), the coarse resolution soil moisture product from European Space Agency (ESA) were downscaled using linking model based on Triangle method to a finer resolution soil moisture product. EDI and spatially downscaled soil moisture products were later used with MODIS 16 days NDVI product as key elements to assess and predict agricultural drought in irrigated and rain-fed agricultural systems in Bundelkhand region of India. Meteorological drought, soil moisture deficiency and NDVI degradation were inhabited for each and every pixel of the image in GIS environment, for agricultural impact assessment at a 16 day temporal scale for Rabi seasons (October-April) between years 2000 to 2009. Based on the statistical analysis, good correlations were found among the parameters EDI and soil moisture anomaly; NDVI anomaly and soil moisture anomaly lagged to 16 days and these results were exploited for the development of a linear prediction model. The predictive capability of the developed model was validated on the basis of spatial distribution of predicted NDVI which was compared with MODIS NDVI product in the beginning of preceding Rabi season (Oct-Dec of 2010).The predictions of the model were based on future meteorological data (year 2010) and were found to be yielding good results. The developed model have good predictive capability based on future meteorological data (rainfall data) availability, which enhances its utility in analyzing future Agricultural conditions if meteorological data is available.

Quantitative thickness prediction of tectonically deformed coal using Extreme Learning Machine and Principal Component Analysis: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xin; Li, Yan; Chen, Tongjun; Yan, Qiuyan; Ma, Li

2017-04-01

The thickness of tectonically deformed coal (TDC) has positive correlation associations with gas outbursts. In order to predict the TDC thickness of coal beds, we propose a new quantitative predicting method using an extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm, a principal component analysis (PCA) algorithm, and seismic attributes. At first, we build an ELM prediction model using the PCA attributes of a synthetic seismic section. The results suggest that the ELM model can produce a reliable and accurate prediction of the TDC thickness for synthetic data, preferring Sigmoid activation function and 20 hidden nodes. Then, we analyze the applicability of the ELM model on the thickness prediction of the TDC with real application data. Through the cross validation of near-well traces, the results suggest that the ELM model can produce a reliable and accurate prediction of the TDC. After that, we use 250 near-well traces from 10 wells to build an ELM predicting model and use the model to forecast the TDC thickness of the No. 15 coal in the study area using the PCA attributes as the inputs. Comparing the predicted results, it is noted that the trained ELM model with two selected PCA attributes yields better predication results than those from the other combinations of the attributes. Finally, the trained ELM model with real seismic data have a different number of hidden nodes (10) than the trained ELM model with synthetic seismic data. In summary, it is feasible to use an ELM model to predict the TDC thickness using the calculated PCA attributes as the inputs. However, the input attributes, the activation function and the number of hidden nodes in the ELM model should be selected and tested carefully based on individual application.

[Application of an artificial neural network in the design of sustained-release dosage forms].

PubMed

Wei, X H; Wu, J J; Liang, W Q

2001-09-01

To use the artificial neural network (ANN) in Matlab 5.1 tool-boxes to predict the formulations of sustained-release tablets. The solubilities of nine drugs and various ratios of HPMC: Dextrin for 63 tablet formulations were used as the ANN model input, and in vitro accumulation released at 6 sampling times were used as output. The ANN model was constructed by selecting the optimal number of iterations (25) and model structure in which there are one hidden layer and five hidden layer nodes. The optimized ANN model was used for prediction of formulation based on desired target in vitro dissolution-time profiles. ANN predicted profiles based on ANN predicted formulations were closely similar to the target profiles. The ANN could be used for predicting the dissolution profiles of sustained release dosage form and for the design of optimal formulation.

Identification of optimal soil hydraulic functions and parameters for predicting soil moisture

EPA Science Inventory

We examined the accuracy of several commonly used soil hydraulic functions and associated parameters for predicting observed soil moisture data. We used six combined methods formed by three commonly used soil hydraulic functions – i.e., Brooks and Corey (1964) (BC), Campbell (19...

Climate Prediction Center - United States Drought Information

Science.gov Websites

• Crop Moisture Indices • Soil Moisture Percentiles (based on NLDAS) • Standardized Runoff Index (based /Minimum • Mean Surface Hydrology (based on NLDAS) • Total Soil Moisture • Total SM Change • MOSAIC Soil Moisture Profile • NOAH Soil Moisture Profile • NOAH Soil T Profile • Evaporation • E-P Â

A TWO-STATE MIXED HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL FOR RISKY TEENAGE DRIVING BEHAVIOR

PubMed Central

Jackson, John C.; Albert, Paul S.; Zhang, Zhiwei

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a joint model for longitudinal binary and count outcomes. We apply the model to a unique longitudinal study of teen driving where risky driving behavior and the occurrence of crashes or near crashes are measured prospectively over the first 18 months of licensure. Of scientific interest is relating the two processes and predicting crash and near crash outcomes. We propose a two-state mixed hidden Markov model whereby the hidden state characterizes the mean for the joint longitudinal crash/near crash outcomes and elevated g-force events which are a proxy for risky driving. Heterogeneity is introduced in both the conditional model for the count outcomes and the hidden process using a shared random effect. An estimation procedure is presented using the forward–backward algorithm along with adaptive Gaussian quadrature to perform numerical integration. The estimation procedure readily yields hidden state probabilities as well as providing for a broad class of predictors. PMID:27766124

Characteristics of Hidden Status Among Users of Crack, Powder Cocaine, and Heroin in Central Harlem

PubMed Central

Davis, W. Rees; Johnson, Bruce D.; Liberty, Hilary James; Randolph, Doris D.

2007-01-01

This article analyzes hidden status among crack, powder cocaine, and heroin users and setters, in contrast to more accessible users/sellers. Several sampling strategies acquired 657 users (N=559) and sellers (N=98). Indicators of hidden status were those who (1) paid rent in full in the last 30 days, (2) used nonstreet drug procurement. (3) had legal jobs, and (4) earned $1,000 or more in legal income in the last 30 days. Nearly half had at least one indicator: approximately 16% of users/sellers had two to four indicators. In logistic regression analyses, those who had not panhandled in the last 30 days, those who had used powder cocaine in the last 30 days, and those never arrested were the most likely to have hidden status, whether the analysis predicted those having any indicators or those having two to four indicators. The four indicators begin to operationally define hidden status among users of cocaine and heroin. PMID:17710217

Prediction of clothing thermal insulation and moisture vapour resistance of the clothed body walking in wind.

PubMed

Qian, Xiaoming; Fan, Jintu

2006-11-01

Clothing thermal insulation and moisture vapour resistance are the two most important parameters in thermal environmental engineering, functional clothing design and end use of clothing ensembles. In this study, clothing thermal insulation and moisture vapour resistance of various types of clothing ensembles were measured using the walking-able sweating manikin, Walter, under various environmental conditions and walking speeds. Based on an extensive experimental investigation and an improved understanding of the effects of body activities and environmental conditions, a simple but effective direct regression model has been established, for predicting the clothing thermal insulation and moisture vapour resistance under wind and walking motion, from those when the manikin was standing in still air. The model has been validated by using experimental data reported in the previous literature. It has shown that the new models have advantages and provide very accurate prediction.

Estimating the fuel moisture content of indicator sticks from selected weather variables

Treesearch

Theodore G. Storey

1965-01-01

Equations were developed to predict the fuel moisture content of indicator sticks from the controlling weather variables. Moisture content of ⅛-inch thick basswood slats used in the South and East could be determined with about equal precision by equation in the critical low moisture range or by weighing at fire danger stations. The most useful equation...

Comparing jack pine slash and forest floor moisture contents and National Fire Danger Rating System predictions.

Treesearch

Robert M. Loomis; William A. Main

1980-01-01

Relations between certain slash and forest floor moisture contents and the applicable estimated time lag fuel moistures of the National Fire Danger Rating System were investigated for 1-year-old jack pine fuel types in northeastern Minnesota and central Lower Michigan. Only approximate estimates of actual fuel moisture are possible fore the relations determined, thus...

Moisture diffusion through a corrugated fiberboard under compressive loading : its deformation and stiffness response

Treesearch

Adeeb A. Rahman; Thomas J. Urbanik; Mustafa Mahamid

2002-01-01

This research develops a model using finite element to study the response of a panel made of a typical commercial corrugated fireboard due to an induced moisture function at one side of the fiberboard. The model predicts how the moisture diffusion will permeate through the fiberboard's layers (medium and liners) providing information on moisture content at any...

Improving hydrologic predictions of a catchment model via assimilation of surface soil moisture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This paper examines the potential for improving Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic predictions within the 341 km2 Cobb Creek Watershed in southwestern Oklahoma through the assimilation of surface soil moisture observations using an Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In a series of synthet...

Effect of moisture content and dry unit weight on the resilient modulus of subgrade soils predicted by cone penetration test.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-06-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of moisture content and dry unit weight on the resilient characteristics of subgrade soil predicted by the cone penetration test. An experimental program was conducted in which cone penetratio...

Modeling effects of moisture content and advection on odor causing VOCs volatilization from stored swine manure.

PubMed

Liao, C M; Liang, H M

2000-05-01

Two models for evaluating the contents and advection of manure moisture on odor causing volatile organic compounds (VOC-odor) volatilization from stored swine manure were studied for their ability to predict the volatilization rate (indoor air concentration) and cumulative exposure dose: a MJ-I model and a MJ-II model. Both models simulating depletion of source contaminant via volatilization and degradation based on an analytical model adapted from the behavior assessment model of Jury et al. In the MJ-I model, manure moisture movement was negligible, whereas in the MJ-II model, time-dependent indoor air concentrations was a function of constant manure moisture contents and steady-state moisture advection. Predicted indoor air concentrations and inhaled doses for the study VOC-odors of p-cresol, toluene, and p-xylene varied by up to two to three orders of magnitude depending on the manure moisture conditions. The sensitivity analysis of both models suggests that when manure moisture movement exists, simply MJ-I model is inherently not sufficient to represent a more generally volatilization process, which can even become stringent as moisture content increases. The conclusion illustrates how one needs to include a wide variety of manure moisture values in order to fully assess the complex volatilization mechanisms that are present in a real situation.

Moisture variations in brine-salted pasta filata cheese.

PubMed

Kindstedt, P S

2001-01-01

A study was made of the moisture distribution in brine-salted pasta filata cheese. Brine-salted cheeses usually develop reasonably smooth and predictable gradients of decreasing moisture from center to surface, resulting from outward diffusion of moisture in response to inward diffusion of salt. However, patterns of moisture variation within brine-salted pasta filata cheeses, notably pizza cheese, are more variable and less predictable because of the peculiar conditions that occur when warm cheese is immersed in cold brine. In this study, cold brining resulted in less moisture loss from the cheese surface to the brine. Also it created substantial temperature gradients within the cheese, which persisted after brining and influenced the movement of moisture within the cheese independently of that caused by the inward diffusion of salt. Depending on brining conditions and age, pizza cheese may contain decreasing, increasing, or irregular gradients of moisture from center to surface, which may vary considerably at different locations within a single block. This complicates efforts to obtain representative samples for moisture and composition testing. Dicing the entire block into small (e.g., 1.5 cm) cubes and collecting a composite sample after thorough mixing may serve as a practical sampling approach for manufacturers and users of pizza cheese that have ready access to dicing equipment.

Hardy's argument and successive spin-s measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahanj, Ali

2010-07-15

We consider a hidden-variable theoretic description of successive measurements of noncommuting spin observables on an input spin-s state. In this scenario, the hidden-variable theory leads to a Hardy-type argument that quantum predictions violate it. We show that the maximum probability of success of Hardy's argument in quantum theory is ((1/2)){sup 4s}, which is more than in the spatial case.

On the assimilation of satellite derived soil moisture in numerical weather prediction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drusch, M.

2006-12-01

Satellite derived surface soil moisture data sets are readily available and have been used successfully in hydrological applications. In many operational numerical weather prediction systems the initial soil moisture conditions are analysed from the modelled background and 2 m temperature and relative humidity. This approach has proven its efficiency to improve surface latent and sensible heat fluxes and consequently the forecast on large geographical domains. However, since soil moisture is not always related to screen level variables, model errors and uncertainties in the forcing data can accumulate in root zone soil moisture. Remotely sensed surface soil moisture is directly linked to the model's uppermost soil layer and therefore is a stronger constraint for the soil moisture analysis. Three data assimilation experiments with the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been performed for the two months period of June and July 2002: A control run based on the operational soil moisture analysis, an open loop run with freely evolving soil moisture, and an experimental run incorporating bias corrected TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) derived soil moisture over the southern United States through a nudging scheme using 6-hourly departures. Apart from the soil moisture analysis, the system setup reflects the operational forecast configuration including the atmospheric 4D-Var analysis. Soil moisture analysed in the nudging experiment is the most accurate estimate when compared against in-situ observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet. The corresponding forecast for 2 m temperature and relative humidity is almost as accurate as in the control experiment. Furthermore, it is shown that the soil moisture analysis influences local weather parameters including the planetary boundary layer height and cloud coverage. The transferability of the results to other satellite derived soil moisture data sets will be discussed.

Further experimentation on bubble generation during transformer overload. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oommen, T.V.

1992-03-01

This report covers additional work done during 1990 and 1991 on gas bubble generation under overload conditions. To improve visual bubble detection, a single disc coil was used. To further improve detection, a corona device was also used which signaled the onset of corona activity in the early stages of bubble formation. A total of fourteen model tests were conducted, half of which used the Inertaire system, and the remaining, a conservator (COPS). Moisture content of paper in the coil varied from 1.0% to 8.0%; gas (nitrogen) content varied from 1.0% to 8.8%. The results confirmed earlier observations that themore » mathematical bubble prediction model was not valid for high gas content model with relatively low moisture levels in the coil. An empirical relationship was formulated to accurately predict bubble evolution temperatures from known moisture and gas content values. For low moisture content models (below 2%), the simple Piper relationship was sufficient to predict bubble evolution temperatures, regardless of gas content. Moisture in the coil appears to be the key factor in bubble generation. Gas blanketed (Inertaire) systems do not appear to be prone to premature bubble generation from overloads as previously thought. The new bubble prediction model reveals that for a coil with 2% moisture, the bubble evolution temperature would be about 140{degrees}C. Since old transformers in service may have as much as 2% moisture in paper, the 140{degrees}C bubble evolution temperature may be taken as the lower limit of bubble evolution temperature under overload conditions for operating transformers. Drier insulation would raise the bubble evolution temperature.« less

The Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization On Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, R. D.; Suarez, M. J.; Tyahla, L.; Houser, Paul (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Some studies suggest that the proper initialization of soil moisture in a forecasting model may contribute significantly to the accurate prediction of seasonal precipitation, especially over mid-latitude continents. In order for the initialization to have any impact at all, however, two conditions must be satisfied: (1) the initial soil moisture anomaly must be "remembered" into the forecasted season, and (2) the atmosphere must respond in a predictable way to the soil moisture anomaly. In our previous studies, we identified the key land surface and atmospheric properties needed to satisfy each condition. Here, we tie these studies together with an analysis of an ensemble of seasonal forecasts. Initial soil moisture conditions for the forecasts are established by forcing the land surface model with realistic precipitation prior to the start of the forecast period. As expected, the impacts on forecasted precipitation (relative to an ensemble of runs that do not utilize soil moisture information) tend to be localized over the small fraction of the earth with all of the required land and atmosphere properties.

Can next-generation soil data products improve soil moisture modelling at the continental scale? An assessment using a new microclimate package for the R programming environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kearney, Michael R.; Maino, James L.

2018-06-01

Accurate models of soil moisture are vital for solving core problems in meteorology, hydrology, agriculture and ecology. The capacity for soil moisture modelling is growing rapidly with the development of high-resolution, continent-scale gridded weather and soil data together with advances in modelling methods. In particular, the GlobalSoilMap.net initiative represents next-generation, depth-specific gridded soil products that may substantially increase soil moisture modelling capacity. Here we present an implementation of Campbell's infiltration and redistribution model within the NicheMapR microclimate modelling package for the R environment, and use it to assess the predictive power provided by the GlobalSoilMap.net product Soil and Landscape Grid of Australia (SLGA, ∼100 m) as well as the coarser resolution global product SoilGrids (SG, ∼250 m). Predictions were tested in detail against 3 years of root-zone (3-75 cm) soil moisture observation data from 35 monitoring sites within the OzNet project in Australia, with additional tests of the finalised modelling approach against cosmic-ray neutron (CosmOz, 0-50 cm, 9 sites from 2011 to 2017) and satellite (ASCAT, 0-2 cm, continent-wide from 2007 to 2009) observations. The model was forced by daily 0.05° (∼5 km) gridded meteorological data. The NicheMapR system predicted soil moisture to within experimental error for all data sets. Using the SLGA or the SG soil database, the OzNet soil moisture could be predicted with a root mean square error (rmse) of ∼0.075 m3 m-3 and a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.65 consistently through the soil profile without any parameter tuning. Soil moisture predictions based on the SLGA and SG datasets were ≈ 17% closer to the observations than when using a chloropleth-derived soil data set (Digital Atlas of Australian Soils), with the greatest improvements occurring for deeper layers. The CosmOz observations were predicted with similar accuracy (r = 0.76 and rmse of ∼0.085 m3 m-3). Comparisons at the continental scale to 0-2 cm satellite data (ASCAT) showed that the SLGA/SG datasets increased model fit over simulations using the DAAS soil properties (r ∼ 0.63 &rmse 15% vs. r 0.48 &rmse 18%, respectively). Overall, our results demonstrate the advantages of using GlobalSoilMap.net products in combination with gridded weather data for modelling soil moisture at fine spatial and temporal resolution at the continental scale.

Evaluation of the predicted error of the soil moisture retrieval from C-band SAR by comparison against modelled soil moisture estimates over Australia

PubMed Central

Doubková, Marcela; Van Dijk, Albert I.J.M.; Sabel, Daniel; Wagner, Wolfgang; Blöschl, Günter

2012-01-01

The Sentinel-1 will carry onboard a C-band radar instrument that will map the European continent once every four days and the global land surface at least once every twelve days with finest 5 × 20 m spatial resolution. The high temporal sampling rate and operational configuration make Sentinel-1 of interest for operational soil moisture monitoring. Currently, updated soil moisture data are made available at 1 km spatial resolution as a demonstration service using Global Mode (GM) measurements from the Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) onboard ENVISAT. The service demonstrates the potential of the C-band observations to monitor variations in soil moisture. Importantly, a retrieval error estimate is also available; these are needed to assimilate observations into models. The retrieval error is estimated by propagating sensor errors through the retrieval model. In this work, the existing ASAR GM retrieval error product is evaluated using independent top soil moisture estimates produced by the grid-based landscape hydrological model (AWRA-L) developed within the Australian Water Resources Assessment system (AWRA). The ASAR GM retrieval error estimate, an assumed prior AWRA-L error estimate and the variance in the respective datasets were used to spatially predict the root mean square error (RMSE) and the Pearson's correlation coefficient R between the two datasets. These were compared with the RMSE calculated directly from the two datasets. The predicted and computed RMSE showed a very high level of agreement in spatial patterns as well as good quantitative agreement; the RMSE was predicted within accuracy of 4% of saturated soil moisture over 89% of the Australian land mass. Predicted and calculated R maps corresponded within accuracy of 10% over 61% of the continent. The strong correspondence between the predicted and calculated RMSE and R builds confidence in the retrieval error model and derived ASAR GM error estimates. The ASAR GM and Sentinel-1 have the same basic physical measurement characteristics, and therefore very similar retrieval error estimation method can be applied. Because of the expected improvements in radiometric resolution of the Sentinel-1 backscatter measurements, soil moisture estimation errors can be expected to be an order of magnitude less than those for ASAR GM. This opens the possibility for operationally available medium resolution soil moisture estimates with very well-specified errors that can be assimilated into hydrological or crop yield models, with potentially large benefits for land-atmosphere fluxes, crop growth, and water balance monitoring and modelling. PMID:23483015

Training Data Requirement for a Neural Network to Predict Aerodynamic Coefficients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Korsmeyer, David (Technical Monitor); Rajkumar, T.; Bardina, Jorge

2003-01-01

Basic aerodynamic coefficients are modeled as functions of angle of attack, speed brake deflection angle, Mach number, and side slip angle. Most of the aerodynamic parameters can be well-fitted using polynomial functions. We previously demonstrated that a neural network is a fast, reliable way of predicting aerodynamic coefficients. We encountered few under fitted and/or over fitted results during prediction. The training data for the neural network are derived from wind tunnel test measurements and numerical simulations. The basic questions that arise are: how many training data points are required to produce an efficient neural network prediction, and which type of transfer functions should be used between the input-hidden layer and hidden-output layer. In this paper, a comparative study of the efficiency of neural network prediction based on different transfer functions and training dataset sizes is presented. The results of the neural network prediction reflect the sensitivity of the architecture, transfer functions, and training dataset size.

The effect of soil moisture anomalies on maize yield in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peichl, Michael; Thober, Stephan; Meyer, Volker; Samaniego, Luis

2018-03-01

Crop models routinely use meteorological variations to estimate crop yield. Soil moisture, however, is the primary source of water for plant growth. The aim of this study is to investigate the intraseasonal predictability of soil moisture to estimate silage maize yield in Germany. We also evaluate how approaches considering soil moisture perform compare to those using only meteorological variables. Silage maize is one of the most widely cultivated crops in Germany because it is used as a main biomass supplier for energy production in the course of the German Energiewende (energy transition). Reduced form fixed effect panel models are employed to investigate the relationships in this study. These models are estimated for each month of the growing season to gain insights into the time-varying effects of soil moisture and meteorological variables. Temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration are used as meteorological variables. Soil moisture is transformed into anomalies which provide a measure for the interannual variation within each month. The main result of this study is that soil moisture anomalies have predictive skills which vary in magnitude and direction depending on the month. For instance, dry soil moisture anomalies in August and September reduce silage maize yield more than 10 %, other factors being equal. In contrast, dry anomalies in May increase crop yield up to 7 % because absolute soil water content is higher in May compared to August due to its seasonality. With respect to the meteorological terms, models using both temperature and precipitation have higher predictability than models using only one meteorological variable. Also, models employing only temperature exhibit elevated effects.

ESA's Soil Moisture dnd Ocean Salinity Mission - Contributing to Water Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mecklenburg, S.; Kerr, Y. H.

2015-12-01

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, launched in November 2009, is the European Space Agency's (ESA) second Earth Explorer Opportunity mission. The scientific objectives of the SMOS mission directly respond to the need for global observations of soil moisture and ocean salinity, two key variables used in predictive hydrological, oceanographic and atmospheric models. SMOS observations also provide information on the characterisation of ice and snow covered surfaces and the sea ice effect on ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes and dynamics, which affects large-scale processes of the Earth's climate system. The focus of this paper will be on SMOS's contribution to support water resource management: SMOS surface soil moisture provides the input to derive root-zone soil moisture, which in turn provides the input for the drought index, an important monitoring prediction tool for plant available water. In addition to surface soil moisture, SMOS also provides observations on vegetation optical depth. Both parameters aid agricultural applications such as crop growth, yield forecasting and drought monitoring, and provide input for carbon and land surface modelling. SMOS data products are used in data assimilation and forecasting systems. Over land, assimilating SMOS derived information has shown to have a positive impact on applications such as NWP, stream flow forecasting and the analysis of net ecosystem exchange. Over ocean, both sea surface salinity and severe wind speed have the potential to increase the predictive skill on the seasonal and short- to medium-range forecast range. Operational users in particular in Numerical Weather Prediction and operational hydrology have put forward a requirement for soil moisture data to be available in near-real time (NRT). This has been addressed by developing a fast retrieval for a NRT level 2 soil moisture product based on Neural Networks, which will be available by autumn 2015. This paper will focus on presenting the above applications and used SMOS data products.

Inverse method to estimate kinetic degradation parameters of grape anthocyanins in wheat flour under simultaneously changing temperature and moisture.

PubMed

Lai, K P K; Dolan, K D; Ng, P K W

2009-06-01

Thermal and moisture effects on grape anthocyanin degradation were investigated using solid media to simulate processing at temperatures above 100 degrees C. Grape pomace (anthocyanin source) mixed with wheat pastry flour (1: 3, w/w dry basis) was used in both isothermal and nonisothermal experiments by heating the same mixture at 43% (db) initial moisture in steel cells in an oil bath at 80, 105, and 145 degrees C. To determine the effect of moisture on anthocyanin degradation, the grape pomace-wheat flour mixture was heated isothermally at 80 degrees C at constant moisture contents of 10%, 20%, and 43% (db). Anthocyanin degradation followed a pseudo first-order reaction with moisture. Anthocyanins degraded more rapidly with increasing temperature and moisture. The effects of temperature and moisture on the rate constant were modeled according to the Arrhenius and an exponential relationship, respectively. The nonisothermal reaction rate constant and activation energy (mean +/- standard error) were k(80 degrees C, 43% (db) moisture) = 2.81 x 10(-4)+/- 1.1 x 10(-6) s(-1) and DeltaE = 75273 +/- 197 J/g mol, respectively. The moisture parameter for the exponential model was 4.28 (dry basis moisture content)(-1). One possible application of this study is as a tool to predict the loss of anthocyanins in nutraceutical products containing grape pomace. For example, if the process temperature history and moisture history in an extruded snack fortified with grape pomace is known, the percentage anthocyanin loss can be predicted.

Error characterization of microwave satellite soil moisture data sets using fourier analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil moisture is a key geophysical variable in hydrological and meteorological processes. Accurate and current observations of soil moisture over meso to global scales used as inputs to hydrological, weather and climate modelling will benefit the predictability and understanding of these processes. ...

Error characterization of microwave satellite soil moisture data sets using fourier analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Abstract: Soil moisture is a key geophysical variable in hydrological and meteorological processes. Accurate and current observations of soil moisture over mesoscale to global scales as inputs to hydrological, weather and climate modelling will benefit the predictability and understanding of these p...

Improving the accuracy of electronic moisture meters for runner-type peanuts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Runner-type peanut kernel moisture content (MC) is measured periodically during curing and post harvest processing with electronic moisture meters for marketing and quality control. MC is predicted for 250 g samples of kernels with a mathematical function from measurements of various physical prope...

Can the normalized soil moisture index improve the prediction of soil organic carbon based on hyperspectral remote sensing data?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Wesemael, Bas; Nocita, Marco

2016-04-01

One of the problems for mapping of soil organic carbon (SOC) at large-scale based on visible - near and short wave infrared (VIS-NIR-SWIR) remote sensing techniques is the spatial variation of topsoil moisture when the images are collected. Soil moisture is certainly an aspect causing biased SOC estimations, due to the problems in discriminating reflectance differences due to either variations in organic matter or soil moisture, or their combination. In addition, the difficult validation procedures make the accurate estimation of soil moisture from optical airborne a major challenge. After all, the first millimeters of the soil surface reflect the signal to the airborne sensor and show a large spatial, vertical and temporal variation in soil moisture. Hence, the difficulty of assessing the soil moisture of this thin layer at the same moment of the flight. The creation of a soil moisture proxy, directly retrievable from the hyperspectral data is a priority to improve the large-scale prediction of SOC. This paper aims to verify if the application of the normalized soil moisture index (NSMI) to Airborne Prima Experiment (APEX) hyperspectral images could improve the prediction of SOC. The study area was located in the loam region of Wallonia, Belgium. About 40 samples were collected from bare fields covered by the flight lines, and analyzed in the laboratory. Soil spectra, corresponding to the sample locations, were extracted from the images. Once the NSMI was calculated for the bare fields' pixels, spatial patterns, presumably related to within field soil moisture variations, were revealed. SOC prediction models, built using raw and pre-treated spectra, were generated from either the full dataset (general model), or pixels belonging to one of the two classes of NSMI values (NSMI models). The best result, with a RMSE after validation of 1.24 g C kg-1, was achieved with a NSMI model, compared to the best general model, characterized by a RMSE of 2.11 g C kg-1. These results confirmed the advantage to controlling the effect of soil moisture on the detection of SOC. The NSMI proved to be a flexible concept, due to the possible use of different SWIR wavelengths, and ease of use, because measurements of soil moisture by other techniques are not needed. However, in the future, it will be important to assess the effectiveness of the NSMI for different soil types, and other hyperspectral sensors.

The Impact of Microwave-Derived Surface Soil Moisture on Watershed Hydrological Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

ONeill, P. E.; Hsu, A. Y.; Jackson, T. J.; Wood, E. F.; Zion, M.

1997-01-01

The usefulness of incorporating microwave-derived soil moisture information in a semi-distributed hydrological model was demonstrated for the Washita '92 experiment in the Little Washita River watershed in Oklahoma. Initializing the hydrological model with surface soil moisture fields from the ESTAR airborne L-band microwave radiometer on a single wet day at the start of the study period produced more accurate model predictions of soil moisture than a standard hydrological initialization with streamflow data over an eight-day soil moisture drydown.

Dual assimilation of satellite soil moisture to improve flood prediction in ungauged catchments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This paper explores the use of active and passive satellite soil moisture products for improving stream flow prediction within 4 large (>5,000km2) semi-arid catchments. We use the probability distributed model (PDM) under a data-scarce scenario and aim at correcting two key controlling factors in th...

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

albedos (testing) Vegetation types Soil texture Images of Snow files: NAM snow page The NESDIS/IMS snow /ice images On Hua-Lu Pan's home page (EMC/NCEP) On the NCAR/RAP Weather Data Page Related soil moisture web sites NCEP/NASA NDAS CPC Soil Moisture Monitoring and Prediction NOAA / National Weather

Limiting conditions for decay in wood systems

Treesearch

Paul I. Morris; Jerrold E. Winandy

2002-01-01

Hygrothermal models can predict temperature and moisture conditions in wall components subjected to real weather data, but specific data and a fundamental understanding of how temperature and wood moisture content dictate the progression of decay under these conditions is required for modellers to predict consequences of decay on building performance. It is well...

Predicting Hydrological Drought: Relative Contributions of Soil Moisture and Snow Information to Seasonal Streamflow Prediction Skill

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, R.; Mahanama, S.; Livneh, B.; Lettenmaier, D.; Reichle, R.

2011-01-01

in this study we examine how knowledge of mid-winter snow accumulation and soil moisture conditions contribute to our ability to predict streamflow months in advance. A first "synthetic truth" analysis focuses on a series of numerical experiments with multiple sophisticated land surface models driven with a dataset of observations-based meteorological forcing spanning multiple decades and covering the continental United States. Snowpack information by itself obviously contributes to the skill attained in streamflow prediction, particularly in the mountainous west. The isolated contribution of soil moisture information, however, is found to be large and significant in many areas, particularly in the west but also in region surrounding the Great Lakes. The results are supported by a supplemental, observations-based analysis using (naturalized) March-July streamflow measurements covering much of the western U.S. Additional forecast experiments using start dates that span the year indicate a strong seasonality in the skill contributions; soil moisture information, for example, contributes to kill at much longer leads for forecasts issued in winter than for those issued in summer.

Bell's theorem and the problem of decidability between the views of Einstein and Bohr.

PubMed

Hess, K; Philipp, W

2001-12-04

Einstein, Podolsky, and Rosen (EPR) have designed a gedanken experiment that suggested a theory that was more complete than quantum mechanics. The EPR design was later realized in various forms, with experimental results close to the quantum mechanical prediction. The experimental results by themselves have no bearing on the EPR claim that quantum mechanics must be incomplete nor on the existence of hidden parameters. However, the well known inequalities of Bell are based on the assumption that local hidden parameters exist and, when combined with conflicting experimental results, do appear to prove that local hidden parameters cannot exist. This fact leaves only instantaneous actions at a distance (called "spooky" by Einstein) to explain the experiments. The Bell inequalities are based on a mathematical model of the EPR experiments. They have no experimental confirmation, because they contradict the results of all EPR experiments. In addition to the assumption that hidden parameters exist, Bell tacitly makes a variety of other assumptions; for instance, he assumes that the hidden parameters are governed by a single probability measure independent of the analyzer settings. We argue that the mathematical model of Bell excludes a large set of local hidden variables and a large variety of probability densities. Our set of local hidden variables includes time-like correlated parameters and a generalized probability density. We prove that our extended space of local hidden variables does permit derivation of the quantum result and is consistent with all known experiments.

Modeling the contributions of global air temperature, synoptic-scale phenomena and soil moisture to near-surface static energy variability using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pryor, Sara C.; Sullivan, Ryan C.; Schoof, Justin T.

2017-12-01

The static energy content of the atmosphere is increasing on a global scale, but exhibits important subglobal and subregional scales of variability and is a useful parameter for integrating the net effect of changes in the partitioning of energy at the surface and for improving understanding of the causes of so-called warming holes (i.e., locations with decreasing daily maximum air temperatures (T) or increasing trends of lower magnitude than the global mean). Further, measures of the static energy content (herein the equivalent potential temperature, θe) are more strongly linked to excess human mortality and morbidity than air temperature alone, and have great relevance in understanding causes of past heat-related excess mortality and making projections of possible future events that are likely to be associated with negative human health and economic consequences. New nonlinear statistical models for summertime daily maximum and minimum θe are developed and used to advance understanding of drivers of historical change and variability over the eastern USA. The predictor variables are an index of the daily global mean temperature, daily indices of the synoptic-scale meteorology derived from T and specific humidity (Q) at 850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights (Z), and spatiotemporally averaged soil moisture (SM). SM is particularly important in determining the magnitude of θe over regions that have previously been identified as exhibiting warming holes, confirming the key importance of SM in dictating the partitioning of net radiation into sensible and latent heat and dictating trends in near-surface T and θe. Consistent with our a priori expectations, models built using artificial neural networks (ANNs) out-perform linear models that do not permit interaction of the predictor variables (global T, synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and SM). This is particularly marked in regions with high variability in minimum and maximum θe, where more complex models built using ANN with multiple hidden layers are better able to capture the day-to-day variability in θe and the occurrence of extreme maximum θe. Over the entire domain, the ANN with three hidden layers exhibits high accuracy in predicting maximum θe > 347 K. The median hit rate for maximum θe > 347 K is > 0.60, while the median false alarm rate is ≈ 0.08.

Variable complexity online sequential extreme learning machine, with applications to streamflow prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Aranildo R.; Hsieh, William W.; Cannon, Alex J.

2017-12-01

In situations where new data arrive continually, online learning algorithms are computationally much less costly than batch learning ones in maintaining the model up-to-date. The extreme learning machine (ELM), a single hidden layer artificial neural network with random weights in the hidden layer, is solved by linear least squares, and has an online learning version, the online sequential ELM (OSELM). As more data become available during online learning, information on the longer time scale becomes available, so ideally the model complexity should be allowed to change, but the number of hidden nodes (HN) remains fixed in OSELM. A variable complexity VC-OSELM algorithm is proposed to dynamically add or remove HN in the OSELM, allowing the model complexity to vary automatically as online learning proceeds. The performance of VC-OSELM was compared with OSELM in daily streamflow predictions at two hydrological stations in British Columbia, Canada, with VC-OSELM significantly outperforming OSELM in mean absolute error, root mean squared error and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency at both stations.

Updated global soil map for the Weather Research and Forecasting model and soil moisture initialization for the Noah land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DY, C. Y.; Fung, J. C. H.

2016-08-01

A meteorological model requires accurate initial conditions and boundary conditions to obtain realistic numerical weather predictions. The land surface controls the surface heat and moisture exchanges, which can be determined by the physical properties of the soil and soil state variables, subsequently exerting an effect on the boundary layer meteorology. The initial and boundary conditions of soil moisture are currently obtained via National Centers for Environmental Prediction FNL (Final) Operational Global Analysis data, which are collected operationally in 1° by 1° resolutions every 6 h. Another input to the model is the soil map generated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations - United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (FAO-UNESCO) soil database, which combines several soil surveys from around the world. Both soil moisture from the FNL analysis data and the default soil map lack accuracy and feature coarse resolutions, particularly for certain areas of China. In this study, we update the global soil map with data from Beijing Normal University in 1 km by 1 km grids and propose an alternative method of soil moisture initialization. Simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting model show that spinning-up the soil moisture improves near-surface temperature and relative humidity prediction using different types of soil moisture initialization. Explanations of that improvement and improvement of the planetary boundary layer height in performing process analysis are provided.

[Fire behavior of Mongolian oak leaves fuel bed under no-wind and zero-slope conditions. II. Analysis of the factors affecting flame length and residence time and related prediction models].

PubMed

Zhang, Ji-Li; Liu, Bo-Fei; Di, Xue-Ying; Chu, Teng-Fei; Jin, Sen

2012-11-01

Taking fuel moisture content, fuel loading, and fuel bed depth as controlling factors, the fuel beds of Mongolian oak leaves in Maoershan region of Northeast China in field were simulated, and a total of one hundred experimental burnings under no-wind and zero-slope conditions were conducted in laboratory, with the effects of the fuel moisture content, fuel loading, and fuel bed depth on the flame length and its residence time analyzed and the multivariate linear prediction models constructed. The results indicated that fuel moisture content had a significant negative liner correlation with flame length, but less correlation with flame residence time. Both the fuel loading and the fuel bed depth were significantly positively correlated with flame length and its residence time. The interactions of fuel bed depth with fuel moisture content and fuel loading had significant effects on the flame length, while the interactions of fuel moisture content with fuel loading and fuel bed depth affected the flame residence time significantly. The prediction model of flame length had better prediction effect, which could explain 83.3% of variance, with a mean absolute error of 7.8 cm and a mean relative error of 16.2%, while the prediction model of flame residence time was not good enough, which could only explain 54% of variance, with a mean absolute error of 9.2 s and a mean relative error of 18.6%.

Spatial Distribution of Surface Soil Moisture in a Small Forested Catchment

EPA Science Inventory

Predicting the spatial distribution of soil moisture is an important hydrological question. We measured the spatial distribution of surface soil moisture (upper 6 cm) using an Amplitude Domain Reflectometry sensor at the plot scale (2 × 2 m) and small catchment scale (0.84 ha) in...

Landslide susceptibility mapping using downscaled AMSR-E soil moisture: A case study from Cleveland Corral, California, US

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As soil moisture increases, slope stability decreases. Remotely sensed soil moisture data can provide routine updates of slope conditions necessary for landslide predictions. For regional scale landslide investigations, only remote sensing methods have the spatial and temporal resolution required to...

Role of subsurface physics in the assimilation of surface soil moisture observations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil moisture controls the exchange of water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere and exhibits memory that may be useful for climate prediction at monthly time scales. Though spatially distributed observations of soil moisture are increasingly becoming available from remotely sense...

FE analysis of creep and hygroexpansion response of a corrugated fiberboard to a moisture flow : a transient nonlinear analysis

Treesearch

Adeeb A. Rahman; Thomas J. Urbanik; Mustafa Mahamid

2006-01-01

This paper presents a model using finite element method to study the response of a typical commercial corrugated fiberboard due to an induced moisture function at one side of the fiberboard. The model predicts how the moisture diffusion will permeate through the fiberboard’s layers(medium and liners) providing information on moisture content at any given point...

Soil Moisture Retrieval Using Convolutional Neural Networks: Application to Passive Microwave Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Z.; Xu, L.; Yu, B.

2018-04-01

A empirical model is established to analyse the daily retrieval of soil moisture from passive microwave remote sensing using convolutional neural networks (CNN). Soil moisture plays an important role in the water cycle. However, with the rapidly increasing of the acquiring technology for remotely sensed data, it's a hard task for remote sensing practitioners to find a fast and convenient model to deal with the massive data. In this paper, the AMSR-E brightness temperatures are used to train CNN for the prediction of the European centre for medium-range weather forecasts (ECMWF) model. Compared with the classical inversion methods, the deep learning-based method is more suitable for global soil moisture retrieval. It is very well supported by graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration, which can meet the demand of massive data inversion. Once the model trained, a global soil moisture map can be predicted in less than 10 seconds. What's more, the method of soil moisture retrieval based on deep learning can learn the complex texture features from the big remote sensing data. In this experiment, the results demonstrates that the CNN deployed to retrieve global soil moisture can achieve a better performance than the support vector regression (SVR) for soil moisture retrieval.

NASA Soil Moisture Data Products and Their Incorporation in DREAM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blonski, Slawomir; Holland, Donald; Henderson, Vaneshette

2005-01-01

NASA provides soil moisture data products that include observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on the Earth Observing System Aqua satellite, field measurements from the Soil Moisture Experiment campaigns, and model predictions from the Land Information System and the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System. Incorporation of the NASA soil moisture products in the Dust Regional Atmospheric Model is possible through use of the satellite observations of soil moisture to set initial conditions for the dust simulations. An additional comparison of satellite soil moisture observations with mesoscale atmospheric dynamics modeling is recommended. Such a comparison would validate the use of NASA soil moisture data in applications and support acceptance of satellite soil moisture data assimilation in weather and climate modeling.

Does NASA SMAP Improve the Accuracy of Power Outage Models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiring, S. M.; McRoberts, D. B.; Toy, B.; Alvarado, B.

2016-12-01

Electric power utilities make critical decisions in the days prior to hurricane landfall that are primarily based on the estimated impact to their service area. For example, utilities must determine how many repair crews to request from other utilities, the amount of material and equipment they will need to make repairs, and where in their geographically expansive service area to station crews and materials. Accurate forecasts of the impact of an approaching hurricane within their service area are critical for utilities in balancing the costs and benefits of different levels of resources. The Hurricane Outage Prediction Model (HOPM) are a family of statistical models that utilize predictions of tropical cyclone windspeed and duration of strong winds, along with power system and environmental variables (e.g., soil moisture, long-term precipitation), to forecast the number and location of power outages. This project assesses whether using NASA SMAP soil moisture improves the accuracy of power outage forecasts as compared to using model-derived soil moisture from NLDAS-2. A sensitivity analysis is employed since there have been very few tropical cyclones making landfall in the United States since SMAP was launched. The HOPM is used to predict power outages for 13 historical tropical cyclones and the model is run using twice, once with NLDAS soil moisture and once with SMAP soil moisture. Our results demonstrate that using SMAP soil moisture can have a significant impact on power outage predictions. SMAP has the potential to enhance the accuracy of power outage forecasts. Improved outage forecasts reduce the duration of power outages which reduces economic losses and accelerates recovery.

Hidden state prediction: a modification of classic ancestral state reconstruction algorithms helps unravel complex symbioses.

PubMed

Zaneveld, Jesse R R; Thurber, Rebecca L V

2014-01-01

Complex symbioses between animal or plant hosts and their associated microbiotas can involve thousands of species and millions of genes. Because of the number of interacting partners, it is often impractical to study all organisms or genes in these host-microbe symbioses individually. Yet new phylogenetic predictive methods can use the wealth of accumulated data on diverse model organisms to make inferences into the properties of less well-studied species and gene families. Predictive functional profiling methods use evolutionary models based on the properties of studied relatives to put bounds on the likely characteristics of an organism or gene that has not yet been studied in detail. These techniques have been applied to predict diverse features of host-associated microbial communities ranging from the enzymatic function of uncharacterized genes to the gene content of uncultured microorganisms. We consider these phylogenetically informed predictive techniques from disparate fields as examples of a general class of algorithms for Hidden State Prediction (HSP), and argue that HSP methods have broad value in predicting organismal traits in a variety of contexts, including the study of complex host-microbe symbioses.

Initializing numerical weather prediction models with satellite-derived surface soil moisture: Data assimilation experiments with ECMWF's Integrated Forecast System and the TMI soil moisture data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drusch, M.

2007-02-01

Satellite-derived surface soil moisture data sets are readily available and have been used successfully in hydrological applications. In many operational numerical weather prediction systems the initial soil moisture conditions are analyzed from the modeled background and 2 m temperature and relative humidity. This approach has proven its efficiency to improve surface latent and sensible heat fluxes and consequently the forecast on large geographical domains. However, since soil moisture is not always related to screen level variables, model errors and uncertainties in the forcing data can accumulate in root zone soil moisture. Remotely sensed surface soil moisture is directly linked to the model's uppermost soil layer and therefore is a stronger constraint for the soil moisture analysis. For this study, three data assimilation experiments with the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been performed for the 2-month period of June and July 2002: a control run based on the operational soil moisture analysis, an open loop run with freely evolving soil moisture, and an experimental run incorporating TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) derived soil moisture over the southern United States. In this experimental run the satellite-derived soil moisture product is introduced through a nudging scheme using 6-hourly increments. Apart from the soil moisture analysis, the system setup reflects the operational forecast configuration including the atmospheric 4D-Var analysis. Soil moisture analyzed in the nudging experiment is the most accurate estimate when compared against in situ observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet. The corresponding forecast for 2 m temperature and relative humidity is almost as accurate as in the control experiment. Furthermore, it is shown that the soil moisture analysis influences local weather parameters including the planetary boundary layer height and cloud coverage.

Using SMAP data to improve drought early warning over the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, N.; Tang, W.

2015-12-01

A drought prone region such as the Great Plains of the United States (US GP) requires credible and actionable drought early warning. Such information cannot simply be extracted from available climate forecasts because of their large uncertainties at regional scales, and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA North American Multi-Model Ensemble experiment (NMME) are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US GP. To mitigate the weaknesses of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies, as the scientific basis for a statistical drought early warning system. This system uses percentile soil moisture anomalies in spring as a key input to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning. The latter outperforms the dynamic prediction over the US Southern Plains and has been used by the Texas state water agency to support state drought preparedness. A main source of uncertainty for this drought early warning system is the soil moisture input obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecasting System (CFS). We are testing use of the beta version of NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture data, along with the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the long-term Essential Climate Variable Soil Moisture (ECV-SM) soil moisture data, to reduce this uncertainty. Preliminary results based on ECV-SM suggests satellite based soil moisture data could improve early warning of rainfall anomalies over the western US GP with less dense vegetation. The skill degrades over the eastern US GP where denser vegetation is found. We evaluate our SMAP-based drought early warning for 2015 summer against observations.

Spatial Estimation of Soil Moisture Using Synthetic Aperture Radar in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meade, N. G.; Hinzman, L. D.; Kane, D. L.

1999-01-01

A spatially distributed Model of Arctic Thermal and Hydrologic processes (MATH) has been developed. One of the attributes of this model is the spatial and temporal prediction of soil moisture in the active layer. The spatially distributed output from this model required verification data obtained through remote sensing to assess performance at the watershed scale independently. Therefore, a neural network was trained to predict soil moisture contents near the ground surface. The input to train the neural network is synthetic aperture radar (SAR) pixel value, and field measurements of soil moisture, and vegetation, which were used as a surrogate for surface roughness. Once the network was trained, soil moisture predictions were made based on SAR pixel value and vegetation. These results were then used for comparison with results from the hydrologic model. The quality of neural network input was less than anticipated. Our digital elevation model (DEM) was not of high enough resolution to allow exact co-registration with soil moisture measurements; therefore, the statistical correlations were not as good as hoped. However, the spatial pattern of the SAR derived soil moisture contents compares favorably with the hydrologic MATH model results. Primary surface parameters that effect SAR include topography, surface roughness, vegetation cover and soil texture. Single parameters that are considered to influence SAR include incident angle of the radar, polarization of the radiation, signal strength and returning signal integration, to name a few. These factors influence the reflectance, but if one adequately quantifies the influences of terrain and roughness, it is considered possible to extract information on soil moisture from SAR imagery analysis and in turn use SAR imagery to validate hydrologic models

Moisture content prediction in poultry litter using artificial intelligence techniques and Monte Carlo simulation to determine the economic yield from energy use.

PubMed

Rico-Contreras, José Octavio; Aguilar-Lasserre, Alberto Alfonso; Méndez-Contreras, Juan Manuel; López-Andrés, Jhony Josué; Cid-Chama, Gabriela

2017-11-01

The objective of this study is to determine the economic return of poultry litter combustion in boilers to produce bioenergy (thermal and electrical), as this biomass has a high-energy potential due to its component elements, using fuzzy logic to predict moisture and identify the high-impact variables. This is carried out using a proposed 7-stage methodology, which includes a statistical analysis of agricultural systems and practices to identify activities contributing to moisture in poultry litter (for example, broiler chicken management, number of air extractors, and avian population density), and thereby reduce moisture to increase the yield of the combustion process. Estimates of poultry litter production and heating value are made based on 4 different moisture content percentages (scenarios of 25%, 30%, 35%, and 40%), and then a risk analysis is proposed using the Monte Carlo simulation to select the best investment alternative and to estimate the environmental impact for greenhouse gas mitigation. The results show that dry poultry litter (25%) is slightly better for combustion, generating 3.20% more energy. Reducing moisture from 40% to 25% involves considerable economic investment due to the purchase of equipment to reduce moisture; thus, when calculating financial indicators, the 40% scenario is the most attractive, as it is the current scenario. Thus, this methodology proposes a technology approach based on the use of advanced tools to predict moisture and representation of the system (Monte Carlo simulation), where the variability and uncertainty of the system are accurately represented. Therefore, this methodology is considered generic for any bioenergy generation system and not just for the poultry sector, whether it uses combustion or another type of technology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forecasting the forest and the trees: consequences of drought in competitive forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, J. S.

2015-12-01

Models that translate individual tree responses to distribution and abundance of competing populations are needed to understand forest vulnerability to drought. Currently, biodiversity predictions rely on one scale or the other, but do not combine them. Synthesis is accomplished here by modeling data together, each with their respective scale-dependent connections to the scale needed for prediction—landscape to regional biodiversity. The approach we summarize integrates three scales, i) individual growth, reproduction, and survival, ii) size-species structure of stands, and iii) regional forest biomass. Data include 24,347 USDA Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots and 135 Long-term Forest Demography plots. Climate, soil moisture, and competitive interactions are predictors. We infer and predict the four-dimensional size/species/space/time (SSST) structure of forests, where all demographic rates respond to winter temperature, growing season length, moisture deficits, local moisture status, and competition. Responses to soil moisture are highly non-linear and not strongly related to responses to climatic moisture deficits over time. In the Southeast the species that are most sensitive to drought on dry sites are not the same as those that are most sensitive on moist sites. Those that respond most to spatial moisture gradients are not the same as those that respond most to regional moisture deficits. There is little evidence of simple tradeoffs in responses. Direct responses to climate constrain the ranges of few tree species, north or south; there is little evidence that range limits are defined by fecundity or survival responses to climate. By contrast, recruitment and the interactions between competition and drought that affect growth and survival are predicted to limit ranges of many species. Taken together, results suggest a rich interaction involving demographic responses at all size classes to neighbors, landscape variation in moisture, and regional climate change.

Using soil temperature and moisture to predict forest soil nitrogen mineralization

Treesearch

Jennifer D. Knoepp; Wayne T. Swank

2002-01-01

Due to the importance of N in forest productivity ecosystem and nutrient cycling research often includes measurement of soil N transformation rates as indices of potential availability and ecosystem losses of N. We examined the feasibility of using soil temperature and moisture content to predict soil N mineralization rates (Nmin) at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory...

Development of an Integrated Moisture Index for predicting species composition

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Charles T. Scott; Martin E. Dale; Anantha Prasad

1996-01-01

A geographic information system (GIS) approach was used to develop an Integrated Moisture Index (IMI), which was used to predict species composition for Ohio forests. Several landscape features (a slope-aspect shading index, cumulative flow of water downslope, curvature of the landscape, and the water-holding capacity of the soil) were derived from elevation and soils...

Improving operational flood ensemble prediction by the assimilation of satellite soil moisture: comparison between lumped and semi-distributed schemes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture data (SM-DA) to correct soil water stores of rainfall-runoff models has shown skill in improving streamflow prediction. In the case of large and sparsely monitored catchments, SM-DA is a particularly attractive tool.Within this context, we assimilate act...

Assessing the effect of quantitative and qualitative predictors on gastric cancer individuals survival using hierarchical artificial neural network models.

PubMed

Amiri, Zohreh; Mohammad, Kazem; Mahmoudi, Mahmood; Parsaeian, Mahbubeh; Zeraati, Hojjat

2013-01-01

There are numerous unanswered questions in the application of artificial neural network models for analysis of survival data. In most studies, independent variables have been studied as qualitative dichotomous variables, and results of using discrete and continuous quantitative, ordinal, or multinomial categorical predictive variables in these models are not well understood in comparison to conventional models. This study was designed and conducted to examine the application of these models in order to determine the survival of gastric cancer patients, in comparison to the Cox proportional hazards model. We studied the postoperative survival of 330 gastric cancer patients who suffered surgery at a surgical unit of the Iran Cancer Institute over a five-year period. Covariates of age, gender, history of substance abuse, cancer site, type of pathology, presence of metastasis, stage, and number of complementary treatments were entered in the models, and survival probabilities were calculated at 6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months using the Cox proportional hazards and neural network models. We estimated coefficients of the Cox model and the weights in the neural network (with 3, 5, and 7 nodes in the hidden layer) in the training group, and used them to derive predictions in the study group. Predictions with these two methods were compared with those of the Kaplan-Meier product limit estimator as the gold standard. Comparisons were performed with the Friedman and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Survival probabilities at different times were determined using the Cox proportional hazards and a neural network with three nodes in the hidden layer; the ratios of standard errors with these two methods to the Kaplan-Meier method were 1.1593 and 1.0071, respectively, revealed a significant difference between Cox and Kaplan-Meier (P < 0.05) and no significant difference between Cox and the neural network, and the neural network and the standard (Kaplan-Meier), as well as better accuracy for the neural network (with 3 nodes in the hidden layer). Probabilities of survival were calculated using three neural network models with 3, 5, and 7 nodes in the hidden layer, and it has been observed that none of the predictions was significantly different from results with the Kaplan-Meier method and they appeared more comparable towards the last months (fifth year). However, we observed better accuracy using the neural network with 5 nodes in the hidden layer. Using the Cox proportional hazards and a neural network with 3 nodes in the hidden layer, we found enhanced accuracy with the neural network model. Neural networks can provide more accurate predictions for survival probabilities compared to the Cox proportional hazards mode, especially now that advances in computer sciences have eliminated limitations associated with complex computations. It is not recommended in order to adding too many hidden layer nodes because sample size related effects can reduce the accuracy. We recommend increasing the number of nodes to a point that increased accuracy continues (decrease in mean standard error), however increasing nodes should cease when a change in this trend is observed.

StegoWall: blind statistical detection of hidden data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voloshynovskiy, Sviatoslav V.; Herrigel, Alexander; Rytsar, Yuri B.; Pun, Thierry

2002-04-01

Novel functional possibilities, provided by recent data hiding technologies, carry out the danger of uncontrolled (unauthorized) and unlimited information exchange that might be used by people with unfriendly interests. The multimedia industry as well as the research community recognize the urgent necessity for network security and copyright protection, or rather the lack of adequate law for digital multimedia protection. This paper advocates the need for detecting hidden data in digital and analog media as well as in electronic transmissions, and for attempting to identify the underlying hidden data. Solving this problem calls for the development of an architecture for blind stochastic hidden data detection in order to prevent unauthorized data exchange. The proposed architecture is called StegoWall; its key aspects are the solid investigation, the deep understanding, and the prediction of possible tendencies in the development of advanced data hiding technologies. The basic idea of our complex approach is to exploit all information about hidden data statistics to perform its detection based on a stochastic framework. The StegoWall system will be used for four main applications: robust watermarking, secret communications, integrity control and tamper proofing, and internet/network security.

Sacrificial bonds and hidden length in biomaterials -- a kinetic description of strength and toughness in bone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieou, Charles K. C.; Elbanna, Ahmed E.; Carlson, Jean M.

2013-03-01

Sacrificial bonds and hidden length in structural molecules account for the greatly increased fracture toughness of biological materials compared to synthetic materials without such structural features, by providing a molecular-scale mechanism of energy dissipation. One example of occurrence of sacrificial bonds and hidden length is in the polymeric glue connection between collagen fibrils in animal bone. In this talk, we propose a simple kinetic model that describes the breakage of sacrificial bonds and the revelation of hidden length, based on Bell's theory. We postulate a master equation governing the rates of bond breakage and formation, at the mean-field level, allowing for the number of bonds and hidden lengths to take up non-integer values between successive, discrete bond-breakage events. This enables us to predict the mechanical behavior of a quasi-one-dimensional ensemble of polymers at different stretching rates. We find that both the rupture peak heights and maximum stretching distance increase with the stretching rate. In addition, our theory naturally permits the possibility of self-healing in such biological structures.

Wide-Area Soil Moisture Estimation Using the Propagation of Lightning Generated Low-Frequency Electromagnetic Signals 1977

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Land surface moisture measurements are central to our understanding of the earth’s water system, and are needed to produce accurate model-based weather/climate predictions. Currently, there exists no in-situ network capable of estimating wide-area soil moisture. In this paper, we explore an alterna...

Improving the soil moisture data record of the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) and Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil moisture estimates are valuable for hydrologic modeling, drought prediction and management, climate change analysis, and agricultural decision support. However, in situ measurements of soil moisture have only become available within the past few decades with additional sensors being installed ...

Comparing AMSR-E soil moisture estimates to the extended record of the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil moisture plays an integral role in various aspects ranging from multi-scale hydrologic modeling to agricultural decision analysis to multi-scale hydrologic modeling, from climate change assessments to drought prediction and prevention. The broad availability of soil moisture estimates has only...

Gain and loss of moisture in large forest fuels

Treesearch

Arthur P. Brackebusch

1975-01-01

Equations for predicting moisture in large fuels were developed from data gathered at Priest River Experimental Forest and Boise Basin Experimental Forest. The most important variables were beginning moisture content of the fuel, duration of precipitation, amount of precipitation, and the sum of the mean temperature of an observation period. Sensitivity and precision...

Prolongation of SMAP to Spatio-temporally Seamless Coverage of Continental US Using a Deep Learning Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, K.; Shen, C.; Kifer, D.; Yang, X.

2017-12-01

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission has delivered high-quality and valuable sensing of surface soil moisture since 2015. However, its short time span, coarse resolution, and irregular revisit schedule have limited its use. Utilizing a state-of-the-art deep-in-time neural network, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), we created a system that predicts SMAP level-3 soil moisture data using climate forcing, model-simulated moisture, and static physical attributes as inputs. The system removes most of the bias with model simulations and also improves predicted moisture climatology, achieving a testing accuracy of 0.025 to 0.03 in most parts of Continental United States (CONUS). As the first application of LSTM in hydrology, we show that it is more robust than simpler methods in either temporal or spatial extrapolation tests. We also discuss roles of different predictors, the effectiveness of regularization algorithms and impacts of training strategies. With high fidelity to SMAP products, our data can aid various applications including data assimilation, weather forecasting, and soil moisture hindcasting.

Analysis of the moisture diffusion transfer through fibrous porous membrane used for waterproof breathable fabrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Fanglong; Zhou, Yu; Liu, Suyan

2013-10-01

In this paper, we propose a new fractal model to determine the moisture effective diffusivity of porous membrane such as expanded polytetrafluorethylene membrane, by taking account of both parallel and perpendicular channels to diffusion flow direction. With the consideration of both the Knudsen and bulk diffusion effect, a relationship between micro-structural parameters and effective moisture diffusivity is deduced. The effective moisture diffusivities predicted by the present fractal model are compared with moisture diffusion experiment data and calculated values obtained from other theoretical models.

Predicting effects of climate change on the composition and function of soil microbial communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubinsky, E.; Brodie, E.; Myint, C.; Ackerly, D.; van Nostrand, J.; Bird, J.; Zhou, J.; Andersen, G.; Firestone, M.

2008-12-01

Complex soil microbial communities regulate critical ecosystem processes that will be altered by climate change. A critical step towards predicting the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems is to determine the primary controllers of soil microbial community composition and function, and subsequently evaluate climate change scenarios that alter these controllers. We surveyed complex soil bacterial and archaeal communities across a range of climatic and edaphic conditions to identify critical controllers of soil microbial community composition in the field and then tested the resulting predictions using a 2-year manipulation of precipitation and temperature using mesocosms of California annual grasslands. Community DNA extracted from field soils sampled from six different ecosystems was assayed for bacterial and archaeal communities using high-density phylogenetic microarrays as well as functional gene arrays. Correlations among the relative abundances of thousands of microbial taxa and edaphic factors such as soil moisture and nutrient content provided a basis for predicting community responses to changing soil conditions. Communities of soil bacteria and archaea were strongly structured by single environmental predictors, particularly variables related to soil water. Bacteria in the Actinomycetales and Bacilli consistently demonstrated a strong negative response to increasing soil moisture, while taxa in a greater variety of lineages responded positively to increasing soil moisture. In the climate change experiment, overall bacterial community structure was impacted significantly by total precipitation but not by plant species. Changes in soil moisture due to decreased rainfall resulted in significant and predictable alterations in community structure. Over 70% of the bacterial taxa in common with the cross-ecosystem study responded as predicted to altered precipitation, with the most conserved response from Actinobacteria. The functional consequences of these predictable changes in community composition were measured with functional arrays that detect genes involved in the metabolism of carbon, nitrogen and other elements. The response of soil microbial communities to altered precipitation can be predicted from the distribution of microbial taxa across moisture gradients.

A Bell-type theorem without hidden variables

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stapp, Henry P.

2003-09-12

It is shown that no theory that satisfies certain premises can exclude faster-than-light influences. The premises include neither the existence of hidden variables nor counterfactual definiteness, nor any premise that effectively entails the general existence of outcomes of unperformed local measurements. All the premises are compatible with Copenhagen philosophy and the principles and predictions of relativistic quantum field theory. The present proof is contrasted with an earlier one with the same objective.

FIMP dark matter freeze-in gauge mediation and hidden sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsao, Kuo-Hsing

2018-07-01

We explore the dark matter freeze-in mechanism within the gauge mediation framework, which involves a hidden feebly interacting massive particle (FIMP) coupling feebly with the messenger fields while the messengers are still in the thermal bath. The FIMP is the fermionic component of the pseudo-moduli in a generic metastable supersymmetry (SUSY) breaking model and resides in the hidden sector. The relic abundance and the mass of the FIMP are determined by the SUSY breaking scale and the feeble coupling. The gravitino, which is the canonical dark matter candidate in the gauge mediation framework, contributes to the dark matter relic abundance along with the freeze-in of the FIMP. The hidden sector thus becomes two-component with both the FIMP and gravitino lodging in the SUSY breaking hidden sector. We point out that the ratio between the FIMP and the gravitino is determined by how SUSY breaking is communicated to the messengers. In particular when the FIMP dominates the hidden sector, the gravitino becomes the minor contributor in the hidden sector. Meanwhile, the neutralino is assumed to be both the weakly interacting massive particle dark matter candidate in the freeze-out mechanism and the lightest observable SUSY particle. We further find out the neutralino has the sub-leading contribution to the current dark matter relic density in the parameter space of our freeze-in gauge mediation model. Our result links the SUSY breaking scale in the gauge mediation framework with the FIMP freeze-in production rate leading to a natural and predicting scenario for the studies of the dark matter in the hidden sector.

Use of satellite and modeled soil moisture data for predicting event soil loss at plot scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todisco, F.; Brocca, L.; Termite, L. F.; Wagner, W.

2015-09-01

The potential of coupling soil moisture and a Universal Soil Loss Equation-based (USLE-based) model for event soil loss estimation at plot scale is carefully investigated at the Masse area, in central Italy. The derived model, named Soil Moisture for Erosion (SM4E), is applied by considering the unavailability of in situ soil moisture measurements, by using the data predicted by a soil water balance model (SWBM) and derived from satellite sensors, i.e., the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT). The soil loss estimation accuracy is validated using in situ measurements in which event observations at plot scale are available for the period 2008-2013. The results showed that including soil moisture observations in the event rainfall-runoff erosivity factor of the USLE enhances the capability of the model to account for variations in event soil losses, the soil moisture being an effective alternative to the estimated runoff, in the prediction of the event soil loss at Masse. The agreement between observed and estimated soil losses (through SM4E) is fairly satisfactory with a determination coefficient (log-scale) equal to ~ 0.35 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of ~ 2.8 Mg ha-1. These results are particularly significant for the operational estimation of soil losses. Indeed, currently, soil moisture is a relatively simple measurement at the field scale and remote sensing data are also widely available on a global scale. Through satellite data, there is the potential of applying the SM4E model for large-scale monitoring and quantification of the soil erosion process.

Use of satellite and modelled soil moisture data for predicting event soil loss at plot scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todisco, F.; Brocca, L.; Termite, L. F.; Wagner, W.

2015-03-01

The potential of coupling soil moisture and a~USLE-based model for event soil loss estimation at plot scale is carefully investigated at the Masse area, in Central Italy. The derived model, named Soil Moisture for Erosion (SM4E), is applied by considering the unavailability of in situ soil moisture measurements, by using the data predicted by a soil water balance model (SWBM) and derived from satellite sensors, i.e. the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT). The soil loss estimation accuracy is validated using in situ measurements in which event observations at plot scale are available for the period 2008-2013. The results showed that including soil moisture observations in the event rainfall-runoff erosivity factor of the RUSLE/USLE, enhances the capability of the model to account for variations in event soil losses, being the soil moisture an effective alternative to the estimated runoff, in the prediction of the event soil loss at Masse. The agreement between observed and estimated soil losses (through SM4E) is fairly satisfactory with a determination coefficient (log-scale) equal to of ~ 0.35 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of ~ 2.8 Mg ha-1. These results are particularly significant for the operational estimation of soil losses. Indeed, currently, soil moisture is a relatively simple measurement at the field scale and remote sensing data are also widely available on a global scale. Through satellite data, there is the potential of applying the SM4E model for large-scale monitoring and quantification of the soil erosion process.

Assimilation of SMOS Retrieved Soil Moisture into the Land Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, Clay B.; Case, Jonathan L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.

2014-01-01

Soil moisture is a crucial variable for weather prediction because of its influence on evaporation and surface heat fluxes. It is also of critical importance for drought and flood monitoring and prediction and for public health applications such as monitoring vector-borne diseases. Land surface modeling benefits greatly from regular updates with soil moisture observations via data assimilation. Satellite remote sensing is the only practical observation type for this purpose in most areas due to its worldwide coverage. The newest operational satellite sensor for soil moisture is the Microwave Imaging Radiometer using Aperture Synthesis (MIRAS) instrument aboard the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) has implemented the assimilation of SMOS soil moisture observations into the NASA Land Information System (LIS), an integrated modeling and data assimilation software platform. We present results from assimilating SMOS observations into the Noah 3.2 land surface model within LIS. The SMOS MIRAS is an L-band radiometer launched by the European Space Agency in 2009, from which we assimilate Level 2 retrievals [1] into LIS-Noah. The measurements are sensitive to soil moisture concentration in roughly the top 2.5 cm of soil. The retrievals have a target volumetric accuracy of 4% at a resolution of 35-50 km. Sensitivity is reduced where precipitation, snowcover, frozen soil, or dense vegetation is present. Due to the satellite's polar orbit, the instrument achieves global coverage twice daily at most mid- and low-latitude locations, with only small gaps between swaths.

The Impact of Model and Rainfall Forcing Errors on Characterizing Soil Moisture Uncertainty in Land Surface Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maggioni, V.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Reichle, R. H.

2013-01-01

The contribution of rainfall forcing errors relative to model (structural and parameter) uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture is investigated by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. Rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters (representing model parameter uncertainty) or by adding randomly generated noise (representing model structure and parameter uncertainty) to the model prognostic variables. Our findings highlight that the method currently used in the NASA GEOS-5 Land Data Assimilation System to perturb CLSM variables poorly describes the uncertainty in the predicted soil moisture, even when combined with rainfall model perturbations. On the other hand, by adding model parameter perturbations to rainfall forcing perturbations, a better characterization of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations is observed. Specifically, an analysis of the rank histograms shows that the most consistent ensemble of soil moisture is obtained by combining rainfall and model parameter perturbations. When rainfall forcing and model prognostic perturbations are added, the rank histogram shows a U-shape at the domain average scale, which corresponds to a lack of variability in the forecast ensemble. The more accurate estimation of the soil moisture prediction uncertainty obtained by combining rainfall and parameter perturbations is encouraging for the application of this approach in ensemble data assimilation systems.

Estimating soil hydraulic properties from soil moisture time series by inversion of a dual-permeability model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalla Valle, Nicolas; Wutzler, Thomas; Meyer, Stefanie; Potthast, Karin; Michalzik, Beate

2017-04-01

Dual-permeability type models are widely used to simulate water fluxes and solute transport in structured soils. These models contain two spatially overlapping flow domains with different parameterizations or even entirely different conceptual descriptions of flow processes. They are usually able to capture preferential flow phenomena, but a large set of parameters is needed, which are very laborious to obtain or cannot be measured at all. Therefore, model inversions are often used to derive the necessary parameters. Although these require sufficient input data themselves, they can use measurements of state variables instead, which are often easier to obtain and can be monitored by automated measurement systems. In this work we show a method to estimate soil hydraulic parameters from high frequency soil moisture time series data gathered at two different measurement depths by inversion of a simple one dimensional dual-permeability model. The model uses an advection equation based on the kinematic wave theory to describe the flow in the fracture domain and a Richards equation for the flow in the matrix domain. The soil moisture time series data were measured in mesocosms during sprinkling experiments. The inversion consists of three consecutive steps: First, the parameters of the water retention function were assessed using vertical soil moisture profiles in hydraulic equilibrium. This was done using two different exponential retention functions and the Campbell function. Second, the soil sorptivity and diffusivity functions were estimated from Boltzmann-transformed soil moisture data, which allowed the calculation of the hydraulic conductivity function. Third, the parameters governing flow in the fracture domain were determined using the whole soil moisture time series. The resulting retention functions were within the range of values predicted by pedotransfer functions apart from very dry conditions, where all retention functions predicted lower matrix potentials. The diffusivity function predicted values of a similar range as shown in other studies. Overall, the model was able to emulate soil moisture time series for low measurement depths, but deviated increasingly at larger depths. This indicates that some of the model parameters are not constant throughout the profile. However, overall seepage fluxes were still predicted correctly. In the near future we will apply the inversion method to lower frequency soil moisture data from different sites to evaluate the model's ability to predict preferential flow seepage fluxes at the field scale.

NIR techniques create added values for the pellet and biofuel industry.

PubMed

Lestander, Torbjörn A; Johnsson, Bo; Grothage, Morgan

2009-02-01

A 2(3)-factorial experiment was carried out in an industrial plant producing biofuel pellets with sawdust as feedstock. The aim was to use on-line near infrared (NIR) spectra from sawdust for real time predictions of moisture content, blends of sawdust and energy consumption of the pellet press. The factors varied were: drying temperature and wood powder dryness in binary blends of sawdust from Norway spruce and Scots pine. The main results were excellent NIR calibration models for on-line prediction of moisture content and binary blends of sawdust from the two species, but also for the novel finding that the consumption of electrical energy per unit pelletized biomass can be predicted by NIR reflectance spectra from sawdust entering the pellet press. This power consumption model, explaining 91.0% of the variation, indicated that NIR data contained information of the compression and friction properties of the biomass feedstock. The moisture content model was validated using a running NIR calibration model in the pellet plant. It is shown that the adjusted prediction error was 0.41% moisture content for grinded sawdust dried to ca. 6-12% moisture content. Further, although used drying temperatures influenced NIR spectra the models for drying temperature resulted in low prediction accuracy. The results show that on-line NIR can be used as an important tool in the monitoring and control of the pelletizing process and that the use of NIR technique in fuel pellet production has possibilities to better meet customer specifications, and therefore create added production values.

Combined evaluation of optical and microwave satellite dataset for soil moisture deficit estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Prashant K.; Han, Dawei; Islam, Tanvir; Singh, Sudhir Kumar; Gupta, Manika; Gupta, Dileep Kumar; Kumar, Pradeep

2016-04-01

Soil moisture is a key variable responsible for water and energy exchanges from land surface to the atmosphere (Srivastava et al., 2014). On the other hand, Soil Moisture Deficit (or SMD) can help regulating the proper use of water at specified time to avoid any agricultural losses (Srivastava et al., 2013b) and could help in preventing natural disasters, e.g. flood and drought (Srivastava et al., 2013a). In this study, evaluation of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Surface Temperature (LST) and soil moisture from Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellites are attempted for prediction of Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD). Sophisticated algorithm like Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is used for prediction of SMD using the MODIS and SMOS dataset. The benchmark SMD estimated from Probability Distributed Model (PDM) over the Brue catchment, Southwest of England, U.K. is used for all the validation. The performances are assessed in terms of Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency, Root Mean Square Error and the percentage of bias between ANFIS simulated SMD and the benchmark. The performance statistics revealed a good agreement between benchmark and the ANFIS estimated SMD using the MODIS dataset. The assessment of the products with respect to this peculiar evidence is an important step for successful development of hydro-meteorological model and forecasting system. The analysis of the satellite products (viz. SMOS soil moisture and MODIS LST) towards SMD prediction is a crucial step for successful hydrological modelling, agriculture and water resource management, and can provide important assistance in policy and decision making. Keywords: Land Surface Temperature, MODIS, SMOS, Soil Moisture Deficit, Fuzzy Logic System References: Srivastava, P.K., Han, D., Ramirez, M.A., Islam, T., 2013a. Appraisal of SMOS soil moisture at a catchment scale in a temperate maritime climate. Journal of Hydrology 498, 292-304. Srivastava, P.K., Han, D., Rico-Ramirez, M.A., Al-Shrafany, D., Islam, T., 2013b. Data fusion techniques for improving soil moisture deficit using SMOS satellite and WRF-NOAH land surface model. Water Resources Management 27, 5069-5087. Srivastava, P.K., Han, D., Rico-Ramirez, M.A., O'Neill, P., Islam, T., Gupta, M., 2014. Assessment of SMOS soil moisture retrieval parameters using tau-omega algorithms for soil moisture deficit estimation. Journal of Hydrology 519, 574-587.

Hydrological Storage Length Scales Represented by Remote Sensing Estimates of Soil Moisture and Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akbar, Ruzbeh; Short Gianotti, Daniel; McColl, Kaighin A.; Haghighi, Erfan; Salvucci, Guido D.; Entekhabi, Dara

2018-03-01

The soil water content profile is often well correlated with the soil moisture state near the surface. They share mutual information such that analysis of surface-only soil moisture is, at times and in conjunction with precipitation information, reflective of deeper soil fluxes and dynamics. This study examines the characteristic length scale, or effective depth Δz, of a simple active hydrological control volume. The volume is described only by precipitation inputs and soil water dynamics evident in surface-only soil moisture observations. To proceed, first an observation-based technique is presented to estimate the soil moisture loss function based on analysis of soil moisture dry-downs and its successive negative increments. Then, the length scale Δz is obtained via an optimization process wherein the root-mean-squared (RMS) differences between surface soil moisture observations and its predictions based on water balance are minimized. The process is entirely observation-driven. The surface soil moisture estimates are obtained from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission and precipitation from the gauge-corrected Climate Prediction Center daily global precipitation product. The length scale Δz exhibits a clear east-west gradient across the contiguous United States (CONUS), such that large Δz depths (>200 mm) are estimated in wetter regions with larger mean precipitation. The median Δz across CONUS is 135 mm. The spatial variance of Δz is predominantly explained and influenced by precipitation characteristics. Soil properties, especially texture in the form of sand fraction, as well as the mean soil moisture state have a lesser influence on the length scale.

Measuring Moisture Levels in Graphite Epoxy Composite Sandwich Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nurge, Mark; Youngquist, Robert; Starr, Stanley

2011-01-01

Graphite epoxy composite (GEC) materials are used in the construction of rocket fairings, nose cones, interstage adapters, and heat shields due to their high strength and light weight. However, they absorb moisture depending on the environmental conditions they are exposed to prior to launch. Too much moisture absorption can become a problem when temperature and pressure changes experienced during launch cause the water to vaporize. The rapid state change of the water can result in structural failure of the material. In addition, heat and moisture combine to weaken GEC structures. Diffusion models that predict the total accumulated moisture content based on the environmental conditions are one accepted method of determining if the material strength has been reduced to an unacceptable level. However, there currently doesn t exist any field measurement technique to estimate the actual moisture content of a composite structure. A multi-layer diffusion model was constructed with Mathematica to predict moisture absorption and desorption from the GEC sandwich structure. This model is used in conjunction with relative humidity/temperature sensors both on the inside and outside of the material to determine the moisture levels in the structure. Because the core materials have much higher diffusivity than the face sheets, a single relative humidity measurement will accurately reflect the moisture levels in the core. When combined with an external relative humidity measurement, the model can be used to determine the moisture levels in the face sheets. Since diffusion is temperaturedependent, the temperature measurements are used to determine the diffusivity of the face sheets for the model computations.

Linking precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture content for the improvement of predictability over land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catalano, Franco; Alessandri, Andrea; De Felice, Matteo

2013-04-01

Climate change scenarios are expected to show an intensification of the hydrological cycle together with modifications of evapotranspiration and soil moisture content. Evapotranspiration changes have been already evidenced for the end of the 20th century. The variance of evapotranspiration has been shown to be strongly related to the variance of precipitation over land. Nevertheless, the feedbacks between evapotranspiration, soil moisture and precipitation have not yet been completely understood at present-day. Furthermore, soil moisture reservoirs are associated to a memory and thus their proper initialization may have a strong influence on predictability. In particular, the linkage between precipitation and soil moisture is modulated by the effects on evapotranspiration. Therefore, the investigation of the coupling between these variables appear to be of primary importance for the improvement of predictability over the continents. The coupled manifold (CM) technique (Navarra and Tribbia 2005) is a method designed to separate the effects of the variability of two variables which are connected. This method has proved to be successful for the analysis of different climate fields, like precipitation, vegetation and sea surface temperature. In particular, the coupled variables reveal patterns that may be connected with specific phenomena, thus providing hints regarding potential predictability. In this study we applied the CM to recent observational datasets of precipitation (from CRU), evapotranspiration (from GIMMS and MODIS satellite-based estimates) and soil moisture content (from ESA) spanning a time period of 23 years (1984-2006) with a monthly frequency. Different data stratification (monthly, seasonal, summer JJA) have been employed to analyze the persistence of the patterns and their characteristical time scales and seasonality. The three variables considered show a significant coupling among each other. Interestingly, most of the signal of the evapotranspiration-precipitation coupled terms comes from the summer (JJA), when convective motions increase sensitivity to surface conditions over land. The CM analysis of the response of evapotranspiration to soil moisture allowed a characterization of the robustness of the coupling between these two variables which has been identified as a key requirement for precipitation predictability (Koster et al. 2000). References Navarra, A., and J. Tribbia (2005), The coupled manifold, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 310-330. Koster, R. D., M. J. Suarez, and M. Heiser (2000), Variance and predictability of precipitation at seasonal-to-interannual timescales, J. Hydrometeor., 1, 26-46.

Enhanced Soil Moisture Initialization Using Blended Soil Moisture Product and Regional Optimization of LSM-RTM Coupled Land Data Assimilation System.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nair, A. S.; Indu, J.

2017-12-01

Prediction of soil moisture dynamics is high priority research challenge because of the complex land-atmosphere interaction processes. Soil moisture (SM) plays a decisive role in governing water and energy balance of the terrestrial system. An accurate SM estimate is imperative for hydrological and weather prediction models. Though SM estimates are available from microwave remote sensing and land surface model (LSM) simulations, it is affected by uncertainties from several sources during estimation. Past studies have generally focused on land data assimilation (DA) for improving LSM predictions by assimilating soil moisture from single satellite sensor. This approach is limited by the large time gap between two consequent soil moisture observations due to satellite repeat cycle of more than three days at the equator. To overcome this, in the present study, we have performed DA using ensemble products from the soil moisture operational product system (SMOPS) blended soil moisture retrievals from different satellite sensors into Noah LSM. Before the assimilation period, the Noah LSM is initialized by cycling through seven multiple loops from 2008 to 2010 forcing with Global data assimilation system (GDAS) data over the Indian subcontinent. We assimilated SMOPS into Noah LSM for a period of two years from 2010 to 2011 using Ensemble Kalman Filter within NASA's land information system (LIS) framework. Results show that DA has improved Noah LSM prediction with a high correlation of 0.96 and low root mean square difference of 0.0303 m3/m3 (figure 1a). Further, this study has also investigated the notion of assimilating microwave brightness temperature (Tb) as a proxy for SM estimates owing to the close proximity of Tb and SM. Preliminary sensitivity analysis show a strong need for regional parameterization of radiative transfer models (RTMs) to improve Tb simulation. Towards this goal, we have optimized the forward RTM using swarm optimization technique for direct Tb assimilation. The results indicate an improvement in Tb simulations based on the multi polarization difference index approach with a correlation of 0.81 (figure 1b (e)) and bias of < 5 K with respect to the SMOS Tb.

North Atlantic salinity as a predictor of Sahel rainfall.

PubMed

Li, Laifang; Schmitt, Raymond W; Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Karnauskas, Kristopher B

2016-05-01

Water evaporating from the ocean sustains precipitation on land. This ocean-to-land moisture transport leaves an imprint on sea surface salinity (SSS). Thus, the question arises of whether variations in SSS can provide insight into terrestrial precipitation. This study provides evidence that springtime SSS in the subtropical North Atlantic ocean can be used as a predictor of terrestrial precipitation during the subsequent summer monsoon in Africa. Specifically, increased springtime SSS in the central to eastern subtropical North Atlantic tends to be followed by above-normal monsoon-season precipitation in the African Sahel. In the spring, high SSS is associated with enhanced moisture flux divergence from the subtropical oceans, which converges over the African Sahel and helps to elevate local soil moisture content. From spring to the summer monsoon season, the initial water cycling signal is preserved, amplified, and manifested in excessive precipitation. According to our analysis of currently available soil moisture data sets, this 3-month delay is attributable to a positive coupling between soil moisture, moisture flux convergence, and precipitation in the Sahel. Because of the physical connection between salinity, ocean-to-land moisture transport, and local soil moisture feedback, seasonal forecasts of Sahel precipitation can be improved by incorporating SSS into prediction models. Thus, expanded monitoring of ocean salinity should contribute to more skillful predictions of precipitation in vulnerable subtropical regions, such as the Sahel.

North Atlantic salinity as a predictor of Sahel rainfall

PubMed Central

Li, Laifang; Schmitt, Raymond W.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.

2016-01-01

Water evaporating from the ocean sustains precipitation on land. This ocean-to-land moisture transport leaves an imprint on sea surface salinity (SSS). Thus, the question arises of whether variations in SSS can provide insight into terrestrial precipitation. This study provides evidence that springtime SSS in the subtropical North Atlantic ocean can be used as a predictor of terrestrial precipitation during the subsequent summer monsoon in Africa. Specifically, increased springtime SSS in the central to eastern subtropical North Atlantic tends to be followed by above-normal monsoon-season precipitation in the African Sahel. In the spring, high SSS is associated with enhanced moisture flux divergence from the subtropical oceans, which converges over the African Sahel and helps to elevate local soil moisture content. From spring to the summer monsoon season, the initial water cycling signal is preserved, amplified, and manifested in excessive precipitation. According to our analysis of currently available soil moisture data sets, this 3-month delay is attributable to a positive coupling between soil moisture, moisture flux convergence, and precipitation in the Sahel. Because of the physical connection between salinity, ocean-to-land moisture transport, and local soil moisture feedback, seasonal forecasts of Sahel precipitation can be improved by incorporating SSS into prediction models. Thus, expanded monitoring of ocean salinity should contribute to more skillful predictions of precipitation in vulnerable subtropical regions, such as the Sahel. PMID:27386525

Estimation of whole lemon mass transfer parameters during hot air drying using different modelling methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torki-Harchegani, Mehdi; Ghanbarian, Davoud; Sadeghi, Morteza

2015-08-01

To design new dryers or improve existing drying equipments, accurate values of mass transfer parameters is of great importance. In this study, an experimental and theoretical investigation of drying whole lemons was carried out. The whole lemons were dried in a convective hot air dryer at different air temperatures (50, 60 and 75 °C) and a constant air velocity (1 m s-1). In theoretical consideration, three moisture transfer models including Dincer and Dost model, Bi- G correlation approach and conventional solution of Fick's second law of diffusion were used to determine moisture transfer parameters and predict dimensionless moisture content curves. The predicted results were then compared with the experimental data and the higher degree of prediction accuracy was achieved by the Dincer and Dost model.

Calculating moisture content for 1000-hour timelag fuels in western Washington and western Oregon.

Treesearch

Roger D. Ottmar; David V. Sandberg

1985-01-01

A predictive model is presented to calculate moisture content of 1000-hour timelag fuels in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) and western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.) logging slash in western Washington and western Oregon. The model is a modification of the 1000-hour fuel moisture model of the...

Prolongation of SMAP to Spatiotemporally Seamless Coverage of Continental U.S. Using a Deep Learning Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Kuai; Shen, Chaopeng; Kifer, Daniel; Yang, Xiao

2017-11-01

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission has delivered valuable sensing of surface soil moisture since 2015. However, it has a short time span and irregular revisit schedules. Utilizing a state-of-the-art time series deep learning neural network, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), we created a system that predicts SMAP level-3 moisture product with atmospheric forcings, model-simulated moisture, and static physiographic attributes as inputs. The system removes most of the bias with model simulations and improves predicted moisture climatology, achieving small test root-mean-square errors (<0.035) and high-correlation coefficients >0.87 for over 75% of Continental United States, including the forested southeast. As the first application of LSTM in hydrology, we show the proposed network avoids overfitting and is robust for both temporal and spatial extrapolation tests. LSTM generalizes well across regions with distinct climates and environmental settings. With high fidelity to SMAP, LSTM shows great potential for hindcasting, data assimilation, and weather forecasting.

Effect of clothing material on thermal responses of the human body

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fengzhi, Li; Yi, Li

2005-09-01

The influence of clothing material on thermal responses of the human body are investigated by using an integrated model of a clothed thermoregulatory human body. A modified 25-nodes model considering the sweat accumulation on the skin surface is applied to simulate the human physiological regulatory responses. The heat and moisture coupled transfer mechanisms, including water vapour diffusion, the moisture evaporation/condensation, the moisture sorbtion/desorption by fibres, liquid sweat transfer under capillary pressure, and latent heat absorption/release due to phase change, are considered in the clothing model. On comparing prediction results with the experimental data in the literature, the proposed model seems able to predict dynamic heat and moisture transfer between the human body and the clothing system. The human body's thermal responses and clothing temperature and moisture variations are compared for different clothing materials during transient periods. We concluded that the hygroscopicity of clothing materials influences the human thermoregulation process significantly during environmental transients.

Assessing the relative influence of surface soil moisture and ENSO SST on precipitation predictability over the contiguous United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoon, Jin-Ho; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

This study assesses the relative influence of soil moisture memory and tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal rainfall over the contiguous United States. Using observed precipitation, the NINO3.4 index and soil moisture and evapotranspiration simulated by a land surface model for 61 years, analysis was performed using partial correlations to evaluate to what extent land surface and SST anomaly of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can affect seasonal precipitation over different regions and seasons. Results show that antecedent soil moisture is as important as concurrent ENSO condition in controlling rainfall anomalies over the U.S., but they generally dominatemore » in different seasons with SST providing more predictability during winter while soil moisture, through its linkages to evapotranspiration and snow water, has larger influence in spring and early summer. The proposed methodology is applicable to climate model outputs to evaluate the intensity of land-atmosphere coupling and its relative importance.« less

Structure and Randomness of Continuous-Time, Discrete-Event Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzen, Sarah E.; Crutchfield, James P.

2017-10-01

Loosely speaking, the Shannon entropy rate is used to gauge a stochastic process' intrinsic randomness; the statistical complexity gives the cost of predicting the process. We calculate, for the first time, the entropy rate and statistical complexity of stochastic processes generated by finite unifilar hidden semi-Markov models—memoryful, state-dependent versions of renewal processes. Calculating these quantities requires introducing novel mathematical objects (ɛ -machines of hidden semi-Markov processes) and new information-theoretic methods to stochastic processes.

PVWatts Version 1 Technical Reference

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dobos, A. P.

2013-10-01

The NREL PVWatts(TM) calculator is a web application developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) that estimates the electricity production of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on a few simple inputs. PVWatts combines a number of sub-models to predict overall system performance, and makes several hidden assumptions about performance parameters. This technical reference details the individual sub-models, documents assumptions and hidden parameters, and explains the sequence of calculations that yield the final system performance estimation.

Hidden sector behind the CKM matrix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okawa, Shohei; Omura, Yuji

2017-08-01

The small quark mixing, described by the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) matrix in the standard model, may be a clue to reveal new physics around the TeV scale. We consider a simple scenario that extra particles in a hidden sector radiatively mediate the flavor violation to the quark sector around the TeV scale and effectively realize the observed CKM matrix. The lightest particle in the hidden sector, whose contribution to the CKM matrix is expected to be dominant, is a good dark matter (DM) candidate. There are many possible setups to describe this scenario, so that we investigate some universal predictions of this kind of model, focusing on the contribution of DM to the quark mixing and flavor physics. In this scenario, there is an explicit relation between the CKM matrix and flavor violating couplings, such as four-quark couplings, because both are radiatively induced by the particles in the hidden sector. Then, we can explicitly find the DM mass region and the size of Yukawa couplings between the DM and quarks, based on the study of flavor physics and DM physics. In conclusion, we show that DM mass in our scenario is around the TeV scale, and the Yukawa couplings are between O (0.01 ) and O (1 ). The spin-independent DM scattering cross section is estimated as O (10-9) [pb]. An extra colored particle is also predicted at the O (10 ) TeV scale.

Algorithmic information theory and the hidden variable question

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuchs, Christopher

1992-01-01

The admissibility of certain nonlocal hidden-variable theories are explained via information theory. Consider a pair of Stern-Gerlach devices with fixed nonparallel orientations that periodically perform spin measurements on identically prepared pairs of electrons in the singlet spin state. Suppose the outcomes are recorded as binary strings l and r (with l sub n and r sub n denoting their n-length prefixes). The hidden-variable theories considered here require that there exists a recursive function which may be used to transform l sub n into r sub n for any n. This note demonstrates that such a theory cannot reproduce all the statistical predictions of quantum mechanics. Specifically, consider an ensemble of outcome pairs (l,r). From the associated probability measure, the Shannon entropies H sub n and H bar sub n for strings l sub n and pairs (l sub n, r sub n) may be formed. It is shown that such a theory requires that the absolute value of H bar sub n - H sub n be bounded - contrasting the quantum mechanical prediction that it grow with n.

A GIS-derived integrated moisture index to predict forest composition and productivity of Ohio forests (U.S.A.)

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Martin E. Dale; Charles T. Scott; Anantha Prasad; Anantha Prasad

1997-01-01

A geographic information system (GIS) approach was used in conjunction with forest-plot data to develop an integrated moisture index (IMI), which was then used to predict forest productivity (site index) and species composition for forests in Ohio. In this region, typical of eastern hardwoods across the Midwest and southern Appalachians, topographic aspect and position...

Non-destructive and rapid prediction of moisture content in red pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) powder using near-infrared spectroscopy and a partial least squares regression model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Purpose: The aim of this study was to develop a technique for the non-destructive and rapid prediction of the moisture content in red pepper powder using near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy and a partial least squares regression (PLSR) model. Methods: Three red pepper powder products were separated in...

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

) soilm1 0-10cm soil moisture soilm2 10-40cm soil moisture soilm3 40-100cm soil moisture soilm4 100-200cm soil moisture soilt1 0-10cm soil temperature soilt2 10-40cm soil temperature soilt3 40-100cm soil temperature soilt4 100-200cm soil temperature thick700.ptype 850-700mb thickness precipitation type thick850

Design of experiments-based monitoring of critical quality attributes for the spray-drying process of insulin by NIR spectroscopy.

PubMed

Maltesen, Morten Jonas; van de Weert, Marco; Grohganz, Holger

2012-09-01

Moisture content and aerodynamic particle size are critical quality attributes for spray-dried protein formulations. In this study, spray-dried insulin powders intended for pulmonary delivery were produced applying design of experiments methodology. Near infrared spectroscopy (NIR) in combination with preprocessing and multivariate analysis in the form of partial least squares projections to latent structures (PLS) were used to correlate the spectral data with moisture content and aerodynamic particle size measured by a time of flight principle. PLS models predicting the moisture content were based on the chemical information of the water molecules in the NIR spectrum. Models yielded prediction errors (RMSEP) between 0.39% and 0.48% with thermal gravimetric analysis used as reference method. The PLS models predicting the aerodynamic particle size were based on baseline offset in the NIR spectra and yielded prediction errors between 0.27 and 0.48 μm. The morphology of the spray-dried particles had a significant impact on the predictive ability of the models. Good predictive models could be obtained for spherical particles with a calibration error (RMSECV) of 0.22 μm, whereas wrinkled particles resulted in much less robust models with a Q (2) of 0.69. Based on the results in this study, NIR is a suitable tool for process analysis of the spray-drying process and for control of moisture content and particle size, in particular for smooth and spherical particles.

Predicting key malaria transmission factors, biting and entomological inoculation rates, using modelled soil moisture in Kenya.

PubMed

Patz, J A; Strzepek, K; Lele, S; Hedden, M; Greene, S; Noden, B; Hay, S I; Kalkstein, L; Beier, J C

1998-10-01

While malaria transmission varies seasonally, large inter-annual heterogeneity of malaria incidence occurs. Variability in entomological parameters, biting rates and entomological inoculation rates (EIR) have been strongly associated with attack rates in children. The goal of this study was to assess the weather's impact on weekly biting and EIR in the endemic area of Kisian, Kenya. Entomological data collected by the U.S. Army from March 1986 through June 1988 at Kisian, Kenya was analysed with concurrent weather data from nearby Kisumu airport. A soil moisture model of surface-water availability was used to combine multiple weather parameters with landcover and soil features to improve disease prediction. Modelling soil moisture substantially improved prediction of biting rates compared to rainfall; soil moisture lagged two weeks explained up to 45% of An. gambiae biting variability, compared to 8% for raw precipitation. For An. funestus, soil moisture explained 32% variability, peaking after a 4-week lag. The interspecies difference in response to soil moisture was significant (P < 0.00001). A satellite normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) of the study site yielded a similar correlation (r = 0.42 An. gambiae). Modelled soil moisture accounted for up to 56% variability of An. gambiae EIR, peaking at a lag of six weeks. The relationship between temperature and An. gambiae biting rates was less robust; maximum temperature r2 = -0.20, and minimum temperature r2 = 0.12 after lagging one week. Benefits of hydrological modelling are compared to raw weather parameters and to satellite NDVI. These findings can improve both current malaria risk assessments and those based on El Niño forecasts or global climate change model projections.

Geophysical techniques in detection to river embankments - A case study: To locate sites of potential leaks using surface-wave and electrical methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, C.; Liu, J.; Xu, S.; Xia, J.; ,

2004-01-01

Geophysical technologies are very effective in environmental, engineering and groundwater applications. Parameters of delineating nature of near-surface materials such as compressional-wave velocity, shear-wave velocity can be obtained using shallow seismic methods. Electric methods are primary approaches for investigating groundwater and detecting leakage. Both of methods are applied to detect embankment in hope of obtaining evidences of the strength and moisture inside the body. A technological experiment has done for detecting and discovering the hidden troubles in the embankment of Yangtze River, Songzi, Hubei, China in 2003. Surface-wave and DC multi-channel array resistivity sounding techniques were used to detect hidden trouble inside and under dike like pipe-seeps. This paper discusses the exploration strategy and the effect of geological characteristics. A practical approach of combining seismic and electric resistivity measurements was applied to locate potential pipe-seeps in embankment in the experiment. The method presents a potential leak factor based on the shear-wave velocity and the resistivity of the medium to evaluate anomalies. An anomaly found in a segment of embankment detected was verified, where occurred a pipe-seep during the 98' flooding.

One-dimensional simulation of temperature and moisture in atmospheric and soil boundary layers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bornstein, R. D.; Santhanam, K.

1981-01-01

Meteorologists are interested in modeling the vertical flow of heat and moisture through the soil in order to better simulate the vertical and temporal variations of the atmospheric boundary layer. The one dimensional planetary boundary layer model of is modified by the addition of transport equations to be solved by a finite difference technique to predict soil moisture.

Downscaling Coarse Scale Microwave Soil Moisture Product using Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbaszadeh, P.; Moradkhani, H.; Yan, H.

2016-12-01

Soil moisture (SM) is a key variable in partitioning and examining the global water-energy cycle, agricultural planning, and water resource management. It is also strongly coupled with climate change, playing an important role in weather forecasting and drought monitoring and prediction, flood modeling and irrigation management. Although satellite retrievals can provide an unprecedented information of soil moisture at a global-scale, the products might be inadequate for basin scale study or regional assessment. To improve the spatial resolution of SM, this work presents a novel approach based on Machine Learning (ML) technique that allows for downscaling of the satellite soil moisture to fine resolution. For this purpose, the SMAP L-band radiometer SM products were used and conditioned on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model prediction to describe the relationship between the coarse and fine scale soil moisture data. The proposed downscaling approach was applied to a western US basin and the products were compared against the available SM data from in-situ gauge stations. The obtained results indicated a great potential of the machine learning technique to derive the fine resolution soil moisture information that is currently used for land data assimilation applications.

Hidden state prediction: a modification of classic ancestral state reconstruction algorithms helps unravel complex symbioses

PubMed Central

Zaneveld, Jesse R. R.; Thurber, Rebecca L. V.

2014-01-01

Complex symbioses between animal or plant hosts and their associated microbiotas can involve thousands of species and millions of genes. Because of the number of interacting partners, it is often impractical to study all organisms or genes in these host-microbe symbioses individually. Yet new phylogenetic predictive methods can use the wealth of accumulated data on diverse model organisms to make inferences into the properties of less well-studied species and gene families. Predictive functional profiling methods use evolutionary models based on the properties of studied relatives to put bounds on the likely characteristics of an organism or gene that has not yet been studied in detail. These techniques have been applied to predict diverse features of host-associated microbial communities ranging from the enzymatic function of uncharacterized genes to the gene content of uncultured microorganisms. We consider these phylogenetically informed predictive techniques from disparate fields as examples of a general class of algorithms for Hidden State Prediction (HSP), and argue that HSP methods have broad value in predicting organismal traits in a variety of contexts, including the study of complex host-microbe symbioses. PMID:25202302

Fire danger index efficiency as a function of fuel moisture and fire behavior.

PubMed

Torres, Fillipe Tamiozzo Pereira; Romeiro, Joyce Machado Nunes; Santos, Ana Carolina de Albuquerque; de Oliveira Neto, Ricardo Rodrigues; Lima, Gumercindo Souza; Zanuncio, José Cola

2018-08-01

Assessment of the performance of forest fire hazard indices is important for prevention and management strategies, such as planning prescribed burnings, public notifications and firefighting resource allocation. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of fire hazard indices considering fire behavior variables and susceptibility expressed by the moisture of combustible material. Controlled burns were carried out at different times and information related to meteorological conditions, characteristics of combustible material and fire behavior variables were recorded. All variables analyzed (fire behavior and fuel moisture content) can be explained by the prediction indices. The Brazilian EVAP/P showed the best performance, both at predicting moisture content of the fuel material and fire behavior variables, and the Canadian system showed the best performance to predicting the rate of spread. The coherence of the correlations between the indices and the variables analyzed makes the methodology, which can be applied anywhere, important for decision-making in regions with no records or with only unreliable forest fire data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature, moisture, and carbon supply at the global scale.

PubMed

Hursh, Andrew; Ballantyne, Ashley; Cooper, Leila; Maneta, Marco; Kimball, John; Watts, Jennifer

2017-05-01

Soil respiration (Rs) is a major pathway by which fixed carbon in the biosphere is returned to the atmosphere, yet there are limits to our ability to predict respiration rates using environmental drivers at the global scale. While temperature, moisture, carbon supply, and other site characteristics are known to regulate soil respiration rates at plot scales within certain biomes, quantitative frameworks for evaluating the relative importance of these factors across different biomes and at the global scale require tests of the relationships between field estimates and global climatic data. This study evaluates the factors driving Rs at the global scale by linking global datasets of soil moisture, soil temperature, primary productivity, and soil carbon estimates with observations of annual Rs from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB). We find that calibrating models with parabolic soil moisture functions can improve predictive power over similar models with asymptotic functions of mean annual precipitation. Soil temperature is comparable with previously reported air temperature observations used in predicting Rs and is the dominant driver of Rs in global models; however, within certain biomes soil moisture and soil carbon emerge as dominant predictors of Rs. We identify regions where typical temperature-driven responses are further mediated by soil moisture, precipitation, and carbon supply and regions in which environmental controls on high Rs values are difficult to ascertain due to limited field data. Because soil moisture integrates temperature and precipitation dynamics, it can more directly constrain the heterotrophic component of Rs, but global-scale models tend to smooth its spatial heterogeneity by aggregating factors that increase moisture variability within and across biomes. We compare statistical and mechanistic models that provide independent estimates of global Rs ranging from 83 to 108 Pg yr -1 , but also highlight regions of uncertainty where more observations are required or environmental controls are hard to constrain. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of a cosmic-ray neutron sensor network for improved land surface model prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baatz, Roland; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Han, Xujun; Hoar, Tim; Reemt Bogena, Heye; Vereecken, Harry

2017-05-01

In situ soil moisture sensors provide highly accurate but very local soil moisture measurements, while remotely sensed soil moisture is strongly affected by vegetation and surface roughness. In contrast, cosmic-ray neutron sensors (CRNSs) allow highly accurate soil moisture estimation on the field scale which could be valuable to improve land surface model predictions. In this study, the potential of a network of CRNSs installed in the 2354 km2 Rur catchment (Germany) for estimating soil hydraulic parameters and improving soil moisture states was tested. Data measured by the CRNSs were assimilated with the local ensemble transform Kalman filter in the Community Land Model version 4.5. Data of four, eight and nine CRNSs were assimilated for the years 2011 and 2012 (with and without soil hydraulic parameter estimation), followed by a verification year 2013 without data assimilation. This was done using (i) a regional high-resolution soil map, (ii) the FAO soil map and (iii) an erroneous, biased soil map as input information for the simulations. For the regional soil map, soil moisture characterization was only improved in the assimilation period but not in the verification period. For the FAO soil map and the biased soil map, soil moisture predictions improved strongly to a root mean square error of 0.03 cm3 cm-3 for the assimilation period and 0.05 cm3 cm-3 for the evaluation period. Improvements were limited by the measurement error of CRNSs (0.03 cm3 cm-3). The positive results obtained with data assimilation of nine CRNSs were confirmed by the jackknife experiments with four and eight CRNSs used for assimilation. The results demonstrate that assimilated data of a CRNS network can improve the characterization of soil moisture content on the catchment scale by updating spatially distributed soil hydraulic parameters of a land surface model.

In-line multipoint near-infrared spectroscopy for moisture content quantification during freeze-drying.

PubMed

Kauppinen, Ari; Toiviainen, Maunu; Korhonen, Ossi; Aaltonen, Jaakko; Järvinen, Kristiina; Paaso, Janne; Juuti, Mikko; Ketolainen, Jarkko

2013-02-19

During the past decade, near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has been applied for in-line moisture content quantification during a freeze-drying process. However, NIR has been used as a single-vial technique and thus is not representative of the entire batch. This has been considered as one of the main barriers for NIR spectroscopy becoming widely used in process analytical technology (PAT) for freeze-drying. Clearly it would be essential to monitor samples that reliably represent the whole batch. The present study evaluated multipoint NIR spectroscopy for in-line moisture content quantification during a freeze-drying process. Aqueous sucrose solutions were used as model formulations. NIR data was calibrated to predict the moisture content using partial least-squares (PLS) regression with Karl Fischer titration being used as a reference method. PLS calibrations resulted in root-mean-square error of prediction (RMSEP) values lower than 0.13%. Three noncontact, diffuse reflectance NIR probe heads were positioned on the freeze-dryer shelf to measure the moisture content in a noninvasive manner, through the side of the glass vials. The results showed that the detection of unequal sublimation rates within a freeze-dryer shelf was possible with the multipoint NIR system in use. Furthermore, in-line moisture content quantification was reliable especially toward the end of the process. These findings indicate that the use of multipoint NIR spectroscopy can achieve representative quantification of moisture content and hence a drying end point determination to a desired residual moisture level.

Influence of vegetation moisture on combustion of pyrolysis gases in wildland fires

Treesearch

S.C. Dover; A.R. Dahale; B. Shotorban; S. Mahalingam; D.R. Weise

2011-01-01

Since wildland fires occur in living vegetation, the fuel moisture content must be considered in order to correctly predict the behavior of the fire. One facet of combustion of pyrolysis gases that has not been considered in previous research is the effect of moisture on the combustion process. This effect is investigated by using CHEMKIN software to study an opposed...

Using machine learning to produce near surface soil moisture estimates from deeper in situ records at U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) locations: Analysis and applications to AMSR-E satellite validation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Surface soil moisture is critical parameter for understanding the energy flux at the land atmosphere boundary. Weather modeling, climate prediction, and remote sensing validation are some of the applications for surface soil moisture information. The most common in situ measurement for these purpo...

Comparisons of Satellite Soil Moisture, an Energy Balance Model Driven by LST Data and Point Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laiolo, Paola; Gabellani, Simone; Rudari, Roberto; Boni, Giorgio; Puca, Silvia

2013-04-01

Soil moisture plays a fundamental role in the partitioning of mass and energy fluxes between land surface and atmosphere, thereby influencing climate and weather, and it is important in determining the rainfall-runoff response of catchments; moreover, in hydrological modelling and flood forecasting, a correct definition of moisture conditions is a key factor for accurate predictions. Different sources of information for the estimation of the soil moisture state are currently available: satellite data, point measurements and model predictions. All are affected by intrinsic uncertainty. Among different satellite sensors that can be used for soil moisture estimation three major groups can be distinguished: passive microwave sensors (e.g., SSMI), active sensors (e.g. SAR, Scatterometers), and optical sensors (e.g. Spectroradiometers). The last two families, mainly because of their temporal and spatial resolution seem the most suitable for hydrological applications In this work soil moisture point measurements from 10 sensors in the Italian territory are compared of with the satellite products both from the HSAF project SM-OBS-2, derived from the ASCAT scatterometer, and from ACHAB, an operative energy balance model that assimilate LST data derived from MSG and furnishes daily an evaporative fraction index related to soil moisture content for all the Italian region. Distributed comparison of the ACHAB and SM-OBS-2 on the whole Italian territory are performed too.

A microwave systems approach to measuring root zone soil moisture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newton, R. W.; Paris, J. F.; Clark, B. V.

1983-01-01

Computer microwave satellite simulation models were developed and the program was used to test the ability of a coarse resolution passive microwave sensor to measure soil moisture over large areas, and to evaluate the effect of heterogeneous ground covers with the resolution cell on the accuracy of the soil moisture estimate. The use of realistic scenes containing only 10% to 15% bare soil and significant vegetation made it possible to observe a 60% K decrease in brightness temperature from a 5% soil moisture to a 35% soil moisture at a 21 cm microwave wavelength, providing a 1.5 K to 2 K per percent soil moisture sensitivity to soil moisture. It was shown that resolution does not affect the basic ability to measure soil moisture with a microwave radiometer system. Experimental microwave and ground field data were acquired for developing and testing a root zone soil moisture prediction algorithm. The experimental measurements demonstrated that the depth of penetration at a 21 cm microwave wavelength is not greater than 5 cm.

Decadal prediction of European soil moisture from 1961 to 2010 using a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mieruch-Schnuelle, S.; Schädler, G.; Feldmann, H.

2014-12-01

The German national research program on decadal climate prediction(MiKlip) aims at the development of an operational decadal predictionsystem. To explore the potential of decadal predictions a hindcastensemble from 1961 to 2010 has been generated by the MPI-ESM, the newEarth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Toimprove the decadal predictions on higher spatial resolutions wedownscaled the MPI-ESM simulations by the regional model COSMO-CLM(CCLM) for Europe. In this study we will characterize and validatethe predictability of extreme states of soil moisture in Europesimulated by the MPI-ESM and the value added by the CCLM. The wateramount stored in the soil is a crucial component of the climate systemand especially important for agriculture, and has an influence onevaporation, groundwater and runoff. Thus, skillful prediction of soilmoisture in the order of years up to a decade could be used tomitigate risk and benefit society. Since soil moisture observationsare rare and validation of model output is difficult, we will ratherinvestigate the effective drought index (EDI), which can be retrievedsolely from precipitation data. Therefore we show that the EDI is agood estimator of the soil water content.

A Stochastic Framework for Evaluating Seizure Prediction Algorithms Using Hidden Markov Models

PubMed Central

Wong, Stephen; Gardner, Andrew B.; Krieger, Abba M.; Litt, Brian

2007-01-01

Responsive, implantable stimulation devices to treat epilepsy are now in clinical trials. New evidence suggests that these devices may be more effective when they deliver therapy before seizure onset. Despite years of effort, prospective seizure prediction, which could improve device performance, remains elusive. In large part, this is explained by lack of agreement on a statistical framework for modeling seizure generation and a method for validating algorithm performance. We present a novel stochastic framework based on a three-state hidden Markov model (HMM) (representing interictal, preictal, and seizure states) with the feature that periods of increased seizure probability can transition back to the interictal state. This notion reflects clinical experience and may enhance interpretation of published seizure prediction studies. Our model accommodates clipped EEG segments and formalizes intuitive notions regarding statistical validation. We derive equations for type I and type II errors as a function of the number of seizures, duration of interictal data, and prediction horizon length and we demonstrate the model’s utility with a novel seizure detection algorithm that appeared to predicted seizure onset. We propose this framework as a vital tool for designing and validating prediction algorithms and for facilitating collaborative research in this area. PMID:17021032

Dynamic Moisture Sorption and Desorption in Fumed Silica-filled Silicone Foam

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Trautschold, Olivia Carol

Characterizing dynamic moisture sorption and desorption in fumed silica-filled silicone foam is necessary for determining material compatibilities and life predictions, particularly in sealed environments that may be exposed to a range of environmental conditions. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and near infrared spectroscopy (NIR) were performed on S5470 fumed silica-filled silicone foam to determine the weight percent of moisture at saturation. Additionally, TGA was used to determine the time, temperature, and relative humidity levels required for sorption and desorption of physisorbed moisture in S5470.

Mass Conservation in Modeling Moisture Diffusion in Multi-Layer Carbon Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nurge, Mark A.; Youngquist, Robert C.; Starr, Stanley O.

2009-01-01

Moisture diffusion in multi-layer carbon composite structures is difficult to model using finite difference methods due to the discontinuity in concentrations between adjacent layers of differing materials. Applying a mass conserving approach at these boundaries proved to be effective at accurately predicting moisture uptake for a sample exposed to a fixed temperature and relative humidity. Details of the model developed are presented and compared with actual moisture uptake data gathered over 130 days from a graphite epoxy composite sandwich coupon with a Rohacell foam core.

Stream Flow Prediction by Remote Sensing and Genetic Programming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Ni-Bin

2009-01-01

A genetic programming (GP)-based, nonlinear modeling structure relates soil moisture with synthetic-aperture-radar (SAR) images to present representative soil moisture estimates at the watershed scale. Surface soil moisture measurement is difficult to obtain over a large area due to a variety of soil permeability values and soil textures. Point measurements can be used on a small-scale area, but it is impossible to acquire such information effectively in large-scale watersheds. This model exhibits the capacity to assimilate SAR images and relevant geoenvironmental parameters to measure soil moisture.

Analysis of Moisture Content in Beetroot using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy and by Principal Component Analysis.

PubMed

Nesakumar, Noel; Baskar, Chanthini; Kesavan, Srinivasan; Rayappan, John Bosco Balaguru; Alwarappan, Subbiah

2018-05-22

The moisture content of beetroot varies during long-term cold storage. In this work, we propose a strategy to identify the moisture content and age of beetroot using principal component analysis coupled Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). Frequent FTIR measurements were recorded directly from the beetroot sample surface over a period of 34 days for analysing its moisture content employing attenuated total reflectance in the spectral ranges of 2614-4000 and 1465-1853 cm -1 with a spectral resolution of 8 cm -1 . In order to estimate the transmittance peak height (T p ) and area under the transmittance curve [Formula: see text] over the spectral ranges of 2614-4000 and 1465-1853 cm -1 , Gaussian curve fitting algorithm was performed on FTIR data. Principal component and nonlinear regression analyses were utilized for FTIR data analysis. Score plot over the ranges of 2614-4000 and 1465-1853 cm -1 allowed beetroot quality discrimination. Beetroot quality predictive models were developed by employing biphasic dose response function. Validation experiment results confirmed that the accuracy of the beetroot quality predictive model reached 97.5%. This research work proves that FTIR spectroscopy in combination with principal component analysis and beetroot quality predictive models could serve as an effective tool for discriminating moisture content in fresh, half and completely spoiled stages of beetroot samples and for providing status alerts.

Memory and foraging theory: Chimpanzee utilization of optimality heuristics in the rank-order recovery of hidden foods

PubMed Central

Sayers, Ken; Menzel, Charles R.

2012-01-01

Many models from foraging theory and movement ecology assume that resources are encountered randomly. If food locations, types and values are retained in memory, however, search time could be significantly reduced, with concurrent effects on biological fitness. Despite this, little is known about what specific characteristics of foods, particularly those relevant to profitability, nonhuman animals can remember. Building upon previous observations, we hypothesized that chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes), after observing foods being hidden in a large wooded test area they could not enter, and after long delays, would direct (through gesture and vocalization) experimentally naïve humans to the reward locations in an order that could be predicted beforehand by the spatial and physical characteristics of those items. In the main experiment, various quantities of almonds, both in and out of shells and sealed in transparent bags, were hidden in the test area. The chimpanzees later directed searchers to those items in a nonrandom order related to quantity, shell presence/absence, and the distance they were hidden from the subject. The recovery sequences were closely related to the actual e/h profitability of the foods. Predicted recovery orders, based on the energetic value of almonds and independently-measured, individual-specific expected pursuit and processing times, were closely related to observed recovery orders. We argue that the information nonhuman animals possess regarding their environment can be extensive, and that further comparative study is vital for incorporating realistic cognitive variables into models of foraging and movement. PMID:23226837

The suitability of remotely sensed soil moisture for improving operational flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, N.; Karssenberg, D.; de Roo, A.; de Jong, S. M.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2013-11-01

We evaluate the added value of assimilated remotely sensed soil moisture for the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and its potential to improve the prediction of the timing and height of the flood peak and low flows. EFAS is an operational flood forecasting system for Europe and uses a distributed hydrological model for flood predictions with lead times up to 10 days. For this study, satellite-derived soil moisture from ASCAT, AMSR-E and SMOS is assimilated into the EFAS system for the Upper Danube basin and results are compared to assimilation of discharge observations only. To assimilate soil moisture and discharge data into EFAS, an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used. Information on the spatial (cross-) correlation of the errors in the satellite products, is included to ensure optimal performance of the EnKF. For the validation, additional discharge observations not used in the EnKF, are used as an independent validation dataset. Our results show that the accuracy of flood forecasts is increased when more discharge observations are assimilated; the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the ensemble mean is reduced by 65%. The additional inclusion of satellite data results in a further increase of the performance: forecasts of base flows are better and the uncertainty in the overall discharge is reduced, shown by a 10% reduction in the MAE. In addition, floods are predicted with a higher accuracy and the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) shows a performance increase of 5-10% on average, compared to assimilation of discharge only. When soil moisture data is used, the timing errors in the flood predictions are decreased especially for shorter lead times and imminent floods can be forecasted with more skill. The number of false flood alerts is reduced when more data is assimilated into the system and the best performance is achieved with the assimilation of both discharge and satellite observations. The additional gain is highest when discharge observations from both upstream and downstream areas are used in combination with the soil moisture data. These results show the potential of remotely sensed soil moisture observations to improve near-real time flood forecasting in large catchments.

The suitability of remotely sensed soil moisture for improving operational flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, N.; Karssenberg, D.; de Roo, A.; de Jong, S. M.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2014-06-01

We evaluate the added value of assimilated remotely sensed soil moisture for the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and its potential to improve the prediction of the timing and height of the flood peak and low flows. EFAS is an operational flood forecasting system for Europe and uses a distributed hydrological model (LISFLOOD) for flood predictions with lead times of up to 10 days. For this study, satellite-derived soil moisture from ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer), AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System) and SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) is assimilated into the LISFLOOD model for the Upper Danube Basin and results are compared to assimilation of discharge observations only. To assimilate soil moisture and discharge data into the hydrological model, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used. Information on the spatial (cross-) correlation of the errors in the satellite products, is included to ensure increased performance of the EnKF. For the validation, additional discharge observations not used in the EnKF are used as an independent validation data set. Our results show that the accuracy of flood forecasts is increased when more discharge observations are assimilated; the mean absolute error (MAE) of the ensemble mean is reduced by 35%. The additional inclusion of satellite data results in a further increase of the performance: forecasts of baseflows are better and the uncertainty in the overall discharge is reduced, shown by a 10% reduction in the MAE. In addition, floods are predicted with a higher accuracy and the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) shows a performance increase of 5-10% on average, compared to assimilation of discharge only. When soil moisture data is used, the timing errors in the flood predictions are decreased especially for shorter lead times and imminent floods can be forecasted with more skill. The number of false flood alerts is reduced when more observational data is assimilated into the system. The added values of the satellite data is largest when these observations are assimilated in combination with distributed discharge observations. These results show the potential of remotely sensed soil moisture observations to improve near-real time flood forecasting in large catchments.

MJO prediction skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, S. W.; Lim, Y.; Kim, D.

2017-12-01

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, provides the primary source of tropical and extratropical predictability on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. To better understand its predictability, this study conducts quantitative evaluation of MJO prediction skill in the state-of-the-art operational models participating in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project. Based on bivariate correlation coefficient of 0.5, the S2S models exhibit MJO prediction skill ranging from 12 to 36 days. These prediction skills are affected by both the MJO amplitude and phase errors, the latter becoming more important with forecast lead times. Consistent with previous studies, the MJO events with stronger initial amplitude are typically better predicted. However, essentially no sensitivity to the initial MJO phase is observed. Overall MJO prediction skill and its inter-model spread are further related with the model mean biases in moisture fields and longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks. In most models, a dry bias quickly builds up in the deep tropics, especially across the Maritime Continent, weakening horizontal moisture gradient. This likely dampens the organization and propagation of MJO. Most S2S models also underestimate the longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks in the tropics, which may affect the maintenance of the MJO convective envelop. In general, the models with a smaller bias in horizontal moisture gradient and longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks show a higher MJO prediction skill, suggesting that improving those processes would enhance MJO prediction skill.

Toward improving the representation of the water cycle at High Northern Latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahoz, William; Svendby, Tove; Hamer, Paul; Blyverket, Jostein; Kristiansen, Jørn; Luijting, Hanneke

2016-04-01

The rapid warming at northern latitude regions in recent decades has resulted in a lengthening of the growing season, greater photosynthetic activity and enhanced carbon sequestration by the ecosystem. These changes are likely to intensify summer droughts, tree mortality and wildfires. A potential major climate change feedback is the release of carbon-bearing compounds from soil thawing. These changes make it important to have information on the land surface (soil moisture and temperature) at high northern latitude regions. The availability of soil moisture measurements from several satellite platforms provides an opportunity to address issues associated with the effects of climate change, e.g., assessing multi-decadal links between increasing temperatures, snow cover, soil moisture variability and vegetation dynamics. The relatively poor information on water cycle parameters for biomes at northern high latitudes make it important that efforts are expended on improving the representation of the water cycle at these latitudes. In a collaboration between NILU and Met Norway, we evaluate the soil moisture observations over Norway from the ESA satellite SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) using in situ ground based soil moisture measurements, with reference to drought and flood episodes. We will use data assimilation of the quality-controlled SMOS soil moisture observations into a land surface model and a numerical weather prediction model to assess the added value from satellite observations of soil moisture for improving the representation of the water cycle at high northern latitudes. This presentation provides first results from this work. We discuss the evaluation of SMOS soil moisture data (and from other satellites) against ground-based in situ data over Norway; the performance of the SMOS soil moisture data for selected drought and flood conditions over Norway; and the first results from data assimilation experiments with land surface models and numerical weather prediction models. Analyses include information on root zone soil moisture. We provide evidence of the value of satellite soil measurements over Norway, including their fidelity, and their impact at improving the representation of the hydrological cycle over northern high latitudes. We indicate benefits from these results for multi-decadal soil moisture datasets such as that from the ESA CCI for soil moisture.

The Temporal Dynamics of Spatial Patterns of Observed Soil Moisture Interpreted Using the Hydrus 1-D Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Willgoose, G. R.; Saco, P. M.

2009-12-01

This paper investigates the soil moisture dynamics over two subcatchments (Stanley and Krui) in the Goulburn River in NSW during a three year period (2005-2007) using the Hydrus 1-D unsaturated soil water flow model. The model was calibrated to the seven Stanley microcatchment sites (1 sqkm site) using continuous time surface 30cm and full profile soil moisture measurements. Soil type, leaf area index and soil depth were found to be the key parameters changing model fit to the soil moisture time series. They either shifted the time series up or down, changed the steepness of dry-down recessions or determined the lowest point of soil moisture dry-down respectively. Good correlations were obtained between observed and simulated soil water storage (R=0.8-0.9) when calibrated parameters for one site were applied to the other sites. Soil type was also found to be the main determinant (after rainfall) of the mean of modelled soil moisture time series. Simulations of top 30cm were better than those of the whole soil profile. Within the Stanley microcatchment excellent soil moisture matches could be generated simply by adjusting the mean of soil moisture up or down slightly. Only minor modification of soil properties from site to site enable good fits for all of the Stanley sites. We extended the predictions of soil moisture to a larger spatial scale of the Krui catchment (sites up to 30km distant from Stanley) using soil and vegetation parameters from Stanley but the locally recorded rainfall at the soil moisture measurement site. The results were encouraging (R=0.7~0.8). These results show that it is possible to use a calibrated soil moisture model to extrapolate the soil moisture to other sites for a catchment with an area of up to 1000km2. This paper demonstrates the potential usefulness of continuous time, point scale soil moisture (typical of that measured by permanently installed TDR probes) in predicting the soil wetness status over a catchment of significant size.

Impact of the assimilation of satellite soil moisture and LST on the hydrological cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laiolo, Paola; Gabellani, Simone; Delogu, Fabio; Silvestro, Francesco; Rudari, Roberto; Campo, Lorenzo; Boni, Giorgio

2014-05-01

The reliable estimation of hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, surface temperature) in space and time is of fundamental importance in operational hydrology to improve the forecast of the rainfall-runoff response of catchments and, consequently, flood predictions. Nowadays remote sensing can offer a chance to provide good space-time estimates of several hydrological variables and then improve hydrological model performances especially in environments with scarce ground based data. The aim of this work is to investigate the impacts on the performances of a distributed hydrological model (Continuum) of the assimilation of satellite-derived soil moisture products and Land Surface (LST). In this work three different soil moisture (SM) products, derived by ASCAT sensor, are used. These data are provided by the EUMETSAT's H-SAF (Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management) program. The considered soil moisture products are: large scale surface soil moisture (SM OBS 1 - H07), small scale surface soil moisture (SM OBS 2 - H08) and profile index in the roots region (SM DAS 2 - H14). These data are compared with soil moisture estimated by Continuum model on the Orba catchment (800 km2), in the northern part of Italy, for the period July 2012-June 2013. Different assimilation experiments have been performed. The first experiment consists in the assimilation of the SM products by using a simple Nudging technique; the second one is the assimilation of only LST data, derived from MSG satellite, and the third is the assimilation of both SM products and LST. The benefits on the model predictions of discharge, LST and soil moisture dynamics were tested.

Estimation of Moisture Content of Forest Canopy and Floor from SAR Data Part I: Volume Scattering Case

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moghaddam, M.; Saatchi, S.

1996-01-01

To understand and predict the functioning of forest biomes, their interaction with the atmosphere, and their growth rates, the knowledge of moisture content of their canopy and the floor soil is essential. The synthetic aperture radar on airborne and spaceborne platforms has proven to be a flexible tool for measuring electromagnetic back- scattering properties of vegetation related to their moisture content.

Soil moisture observations using L-, C-, and X-band microwave radiometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolten, John Dennis

The purpose of this thesis is to further the current understanding of soil moisture remote sensing under varying conditions using L-, C-, and X-band. Aircraft and satellite instruments are used to investigate the effects of frequency and spatial resolution on soil moisture sensitivity. The specific objectives of the research are to examine multi-scale observed and modeled microwave radiobrightness, evaluate new EOS Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) brightness temperature and soil moisture retrievals, and examine future satellite-based technologies for soil moisture sensing. The cycling of Earth's water, energy and carbon is vital to understanding global climate. Over land, these processes are largely dependent on the amount of moisture within the top few centimeters of the soil. However, there are currently no methods available that can accurately characterize Earth's soil moisture layer at the spatial scales or temporal resolutions appropriate for climate modeling. The current work uses ground truth, satellite and aircraft remote sensing data from three large-scale field experiments having different land surface, topographic and climate conditions. A physically-based radiative transfer model is used to simulate the observed aircraft and satellite measurements using spatially and temporally co-located surface parameters. A robust analysis of surface heterogeneity and scaling is possible due to the combination of multiple datasets from a range of microwave frequencies and field conditions. Accurate characterization of spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture during the three field experiments is achieved through sensor calibration and algorithm validation. Comparisons of satellite observations and resampled aircraft observations are made using soil moisture from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model in order to further demonstrate a soil moisture correlation where point data was unavailable. The influence of vegetation, spatial scaling, and surface heterogeneity on multi-scale soil moisture prediction is presented. This work demonstrates that derived soil moisture using remote sensing provides a better coverage of soil moisture spatial variability than traditional in-situ sensors. Effects of spatial scale were shown to be less significant than frequency on soil moisture sensitivity. Retrievals of soil moisture using the current methods proved inadequate under some conditions; however, this study demonstrates the need for concurrent spaceborne frequencies including L-, C, and X-band.

An Approach to Flooding Inundation Combining the Streamflow Prediction Tool (SPT) and Downscaled Soil Moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotterman, K. A.; Follum, M. L.; Pradhan, N. R.; Niemann, J. D.

2017-12-01

Flooding impacts numerous aspects of society, from localized flash floods to continental-scale flood events. Many numerical flood models focus solely on riverine flooding, with some capable of capturing both localized and continental-scale flood events. However, these models neglect flooding away from channels that are related to excessive ponding, typically found in areas with flat terrain and poorly draining soils. In order to obtain a holistic view of flooding, we combine flood results from the Streamflow Prediction Tool (SPT), a riverine flood model, with soil moisture downscaling techniques to determine if a better representation of flooding is obtained. This allows for a more holistic understanding of potential flood prone areas, increasing the opportunity for more accurate warnings and evacuations during flooding conditions. Thirty-five years of near-global historical streamflow is reconstructed with continental-scale flow routing of runoff from global land surface models. Elevation data was also obtained worldwide, to establish a relationship between topographic attributes and soil moisture patterns. Derived soil moisture data is validated against observed soil moisture, increasing confidence in the ability to accurately capture soil moisture patterns. Potential flooding situations can be examined worldwide, with this study focusing on the United States, Central America, and the Philippines.

Design, development and method validation of a novel multi-resonance microwave sensor for moisture measurement.

PubMed

Peters, Johanna; Taute, Wolfgang; Bartscher, Kathrin; Döscher, Claas; Höft, Michael; Knöchel, Reinhard; Breitkreutz, Jörg

2017-04-08

Microwave sensor systems using resonance technology at a single resonance in the range of 2-3 GHz have been shown to be a rapid and reliable tool for moisture determination in solid materials including pharmaceutical granules. So far, their application is limited to lower moisture ranges or limitations above certain moisture contents had to be accepted. Aim of the present study was to develop a novel multi-resonance sensor system in order to expand the measurement range. Therefore, a novel sensor using additional resonances over a wide frequency band was designed and used to investigate inherent limitations of first generation sensor systems and material-related limits. Using granule samples with different moisture contents, an experimental protocol for calibration and validation of the method was established. Pursuant to this protocol, a multiple linear regression (MLR) prediction model built by correlating microwave moisture values to the moisture determined by Karl Fischer titration was chosen and rated using conventional criteria such as coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC). Using different operators, different analysis dates and different ambient conditions the method was fully validated following the guidance of ICH Q2(R1). The study clearly showed explanations for measurement uncertainties of first generation sensor systems which confirmed the approach to overcome these by using additional resonances. The established prediction model could be validated in the range of 7.6-19.6%, demonstrating its fit for its future purpose, the moisture content determination during wet granulations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic effects of root system architecture improve root water uptake in 1-D process-based soil-root hydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouda, Martin; Saiers, James E.

2017-12-01

Root system architecture (RSA) can significantly affect plant access to water, total transpiration, as well as its partitioning by soil depth, with implications for surface heat, water, and carbon budgets. Despite recent advances in land surface model (LSM) descriptions of plant hydraulics, descriptions of RSA have not been included because of their three-dimensional complexity, which makes them generally too computationally costly. Here we demonstrate a new, process-based 1D layered model that captures the dynamic shifts in water potential gradients of 3D RSA under different soil moisture conditions: the RSA stencil. Using root systems calibrated to the rooting profiles of four plant functional types (PFT) of the Community Land Model, we show that the RSA stencil predicts plant water potentials within 2% to the outputs of a full 3D model, under the same assumptions on soil moisture heterogeneity, despite its trivial computational cost, resulting in improved predictions of water uptake and soil moisture compared to a model without RSA in a transient simulation. Our results suggest that LSM predictions of soil moisture dynamics and dependent variables can be improved by the implementation of this model, calibrated for individual PFTs using field observations.

Hidden charm pentaquark and Λ(1405) in the Λb0 →ηcK- p (πΣ) reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Ju-Jun; Liang, Wei-Hong; Oset, Eulogio

2018-02-01

We have performed a study of the Λb0 →ηcK- p and Λb0 →ηc πΣ reactions based on the dominant Cabibbo favored weak decay mechanism. We show that the K- p produced only couples to Λ* states, not Σ* and that the πΣ state is only generated from final state interaction of K bar N and ηΛ channels which are produced in a primary stage. This guarantees that the πΣ state is generated in isospin I = 0 and we see that the invariant mass produces a clean signal for the Λ (1405) of higher mass at 1420 MeV. We also study the ηc p final state interaction, which is driven by the excitation of a hidden charm resonance predicted before. We relate the strength of the different invariant mass distributions and find similar strengths that should be clearly visible in an ongoing LHCb experiment. In particular we predict that a clean peak should be seen for a hidden charm resonance that couples to the ηc p channel in the invariant ηc p mass distribution.

Algorithms for Hidden Markov Models Restricted to Occurrences of Regular Expressions

PubMed Central

Tataru, Paula; Sand, Andreas; Hobolth, Asger; Mailund, Thomas; Pedersen, Christian N. S.

2013-01-01

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are widely used probabilistic models, particularly for annotating sequential data with an underlying hidden structure. Patterns in the annotation are often more relevant to study than the hidden structure itself. A typical HMM analysis consists of annotating the observed data using a decoding algorithm and analyzing the annotation to study patterns of interest. For example, given an HMM modeling genes in DNA sequences, the focus is on occurrences of genes in the annotation. In this paper, we define a pattern through a regular expression and present a restriction of three classical algorithms to take the number of occurrences of the pattern in the hidden sequence into account. We present a new algorithm to compute the distribution of the number of pattern occurrences, and we extend the two most widely used existing decoding algorithms to employ information from this distribution. We show experimentally that the expectation of the distribution of the number of pattern occurrences gives a highly accurate estimate, while the typical procedure can be biased in the sense that the identified number of pattern occurrences does not correspond to the true number. We furthermore show that using this distribution in the decoding algorithms improves the predictive power of the model. PMID:24833225

A novel time series link prediction method: Learning automata approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradabadi, Behnaz; Meybodi, Mohammad Reza

2017-09-01

Link prediction is a main social network challenge that uses the network structure to predict future links. The common link prediction approaches to predict hidden links use a static graph representation where a snapshot of the network is analyzed to find hidden or future links. For example, similarity metric based link predictions are a common traditional approach that calculates the similarity metric for each non-connected link and sort the links based on their similarity metrics and label the links with higher similarity scores as the future links. Because people activities in social networks are dynamic and uncertainty, and the structure of the networks changes over time, using deterministic graphs for modeling and analysis of the social network may not be appropriate. In the time-series link prediction problem, the time series link occurrences are used to predict the future links In this paper, we propose a new time series link prediction based on learning automata. In the proposed algorithm for each link that must be predicted there is one learning automaton and each learning automaton tries to predict the existence or non-existence of the corresponding link. To predict the link occurrence in time T, there is a chain consists of stages 1 through T - 1 and the learning automaton passes from these stages to learn the existence or non-existence of the corresponding link. Our preliminary link prediction experiments with co-authorship and email networks have provided satisfactory results when time series link occurrences are considered.

PVWatts Version 5 Manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dobos, A. P.

2014-09-01

The NREL PVWatts calculator is a web application developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) that estimates the electricity production of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on a few simple inputs. PVWatts combines a number of sub-models to predict overall system performance, and makes includes several built-in parameters that are hidden from the user. This technical reference describes the sub-models, documents assumptions and hidden parameters, and explains the sequence of calculations that yield the final system performance estimate. This reference is applicable to the significantly revised version of PVWatts released by NREL in 2014.

Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, L.; Bunzel, F.; Decremer, D.; Déqué, M.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Douville, H.; Fereday, D.; Guemas, V.; MacLachlan, C.; Müller, W.; Prodhomme, C.

2017-12-01

Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. Yet, few studies have systematically explored such an influence over a sufficient hindcast period and in a multi-model framework to produce a robust quantitative assessment. Here, a dedicated set of twin experiments has been carried out with boreal summer retrospective forecasts over the 1992-2010 period performed by five different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The impact of a realistic versus climatological soil moisture initialization is assessed in two regions with high potential previously identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere coupling, namely the North American Great Plains and South-Eastern Europe. Over the latter region, temperature predictions show a significant improvement, especially over the Balkans. Forecast systems better simulate the warmest summers if they follow pronounced dry initial anomalies. It is hypothesized that models manage to capture a positive feedback between high temperature and low soil moisture content prone to dominate over other processes during the warmest summers in this region. Over the Great Plains, however, improving the soil moisture initialization does not lead to any robust gain of forecast quality for near-surface temperature. It is suggested that models biases prevent the forecast systems from making the most of the improved initial conditions.

Predicting moisture dynamics of fine understory fuels in a moist tropical rainforest system: results of a pilot study undertaken to identify proxy variables useful for rating fire danger.

PubMed

Ray, David; Nepstad, Dan; Brando, Paulo

2010-08-01

*The use of fire as a land management tool in the moist tropics often has the unintended consequence of degrading adjacent forest, particularly during severe droughts. Reliable models of fire danger are needed to help mitigate these impacts. *Here, we studied the moisture dynamics of fine understory fuels in the east-central Brazilian Amazon during the 2003 dry season. Drying stations established under varying amounts of canopy cover (leaf area index (LAI) = 0 - 5.3) were subjected to a range of water inputs (5-15 mm) and models were developed to forecast litter moisture content (LMC). Predictions were then compared with independent field data. *A multiple linear regression relating litter moisture content to forest structure (LAI), ambient vapor pressure deficit (VPD(M)) and an index of elapsed time since a precipitation event (d(-1)) was identified as the best-fit model (adjusted R(2) = 0.89). Relative to the independent observations, model predictions were relatively unbiased when the LMC was

Elevated moisture stimulates carbon loss from mineral soils by releasing protected organic matter.

PubMed

Huang, Wenjuan; Hall, Steven J

2017-11-24

Moisture response functions for soil microbial carbon (C) mineralization remain a critical uncertainty for predicting ecosystem-climate feedbacks. Theory and models posit that C mineralization declines under elevated moisture and associated anaerobic conditions, leading to soil C accumulation. Yet, iron (Fe) reduction potentially releases protected C, providing an under-appreciated mechanism for C destabilization under elevated moisture. Here we incubate Mollisols from ecosystems under C 3 /C 4 plant rotations at moisture levels at and above field capacity over 5 months. Increased moisture and anaerobiosis initially suppress soil C mineralization, consistent with theory. However, after 25 days, elevated moisture stimulates cumulative gaseous C-loss as CO 2 and CH 4 to >150% of the control. Stable C isotopes show that mineralization of older C 3 -derived C released following Fe reduction dominates C losses. Counter to theory, elevated moisture may significantly accelerate C losses from mineral soils over weeks to months-a critical mechanistic deficiency of current Earth system models.

A comparison of two finite element models for the prediction of permafrost temperatures

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1986-01-01

In permafrost areas, the analysis of soil thermal and hydraulic regimes is complicated by phase change effects and by moisture migration. During freezing, mobile soil moisture is drawn toward the freezing front, increasing the available latent heat; ...

Likelihood parameter estimation for calibrating a soil moisture using radar backscatter

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assimilating soil moisture information contained in synthetic aperture radar imagery into land surface model predictions can be done using a calibration, or parameter estimation, approach. The presence of speckle, however, necessitates aggregating backscatter measurements over large land areas in or...

Method for predicting dry mechanical properties from wet wood and standing trees

DOEpatents

Meglen, Robert R.; Kelley, Stephen S.

2003-08-12

A method for determining the dry mechanical strength for a green wood comprising: illuminating a surface of the wood to be determined with light between 350-2,500 nm, the wood having a green moisture content; analyzing the surface using a spectrometric method, the method generating a first spectral data, and using a multivariate analysis to predict the dry mechanical strength of green wood when dry by comparing the first spectral data with a calibration model, the calibration model comprising a second spectrometric method of spectral data obtained from a reference wood having a green moisture content, the second spectral data correlated with a known mechanical strength analytical result obtained from a reference wood when dried and having a dry moisture content.

Estimation of soil hydraulic properties with microwave techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oneill, P. E.; Gurney, R. J.; Camillo, P. J.

1985-01-01

Useful quantitative information about soil properties may be obtained by calibrating energy and moisture balance models with remotely sensed data. A soil physics model solves heat and moisture flux equations in the soil profile and is driven by the surface energy balance. Model generated surface temperature and soil moisture and temperature profiles are then used in a microwave emission model to predict the soil brightness temperature. The model hydraulic parameters are varied until the predicted temperatures agree with the remotely sensed values. This method is used to estimate values for saturated hydraulic conductivity, saturated matrix potential, and a soil texture parameter. The conductivity agreed well with a value measured with an infiltration ring and the other parameters agreed with values in the literature.

Rule extraction from minimal neural networks for credit card screening.

PubMed

Setiono, Rudy; Baesens, Bart; Mues, Christophe

2011-08-01

While feedforward neural networks have been widely accepted as effective tools for solving classification problems, the issue of finding the best network architecture remains unresolved, particularly so in real-world problem settings. We address this issue in the context of credit card screening, where it is important to not only find a neural network with good predictive performance but also one that facilitates a clear explanation of how it produces its predictions. We show that minimal neural networks with as few as one hidden unit provide good predictive accuracy, while having the added advantage of making it easier to generate concise and comprehensible classification rules for the user. To further reduce model size, a novel approach is suggested in which network connections from the input units to this hidden unit are removed by a very straightaway pruning procedure. In terms of predictive accuracy, both the minimized neural networks and the rule sets generated from them are shown to compare favorably with other neural network based classifiers. The rules generated from the minimized neural networks are concise and thus easier to validate in a real-life setting.

Autoregressive-moving-average hidden Markov model for vision-based fall prediction-An application for walker robot.

PubMed

Taghvaei, Sajjad; Jahanandish, Mohammad Hasan; Kosuge, Kazuhiro

2017-01-01

Population aging of the societies requires providing the elderly with safe and dependable assistive technologies in daily life activities. Improving the fall detection algorithms can play a major role in achieving this goal. This article proposes a real-time fall prediction algorithm based on the acquired visual data of a user with walking assistive system from a depth sensor. In the lack of a coupled dynamic model of the human and the assistive walker a hybrid "system identification-machine learning" approach is used. An autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model is fitted on the time-series walking data to forecast the upcoming states, and a hidden Markov model (HMM) based classifier is built on the top of the ARMA model to predict falling in the upcoming time frames. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated through experiments with four subjects including an experienced physiotherapist while using a walker robot in five different falling scenarios; namely, fall forward, fall down, fall back, fall left, and fall right. The algorithm successfully predicts the fall with a rate of 84.72%.

Simultaneous Moisture Content and Mass Flow Measurements in Wood Chip Flows Using Coupled Dielectric and Impact Sensors.

PubMed

Pan, Pengmin; McDonald, Timothy; Fulton, John; Via, Brian; Hung, John

2016-12-23

An 8-electrode capacitance tomography (ECT) sensor was built and used to measure moisture content (MC) and mass flow of pine chip flows. The device was capable of directly measuring total water quantity in a sample but was sensitive to both dry matter and moisture, and therefore required a second measurement of mass flow to calculate MC. Two means of calculating the mass flow were used: the first being an impact sensor to measure total mass flow, and the second a volumetric approach based on measuring total area occupied by wood in images generated using the capacitance sensor's tomographic mode. Tests were made on 109 groups of wood chips ranging in moisture content from 14% to 120% (dry basis) and wet weight of 280 to 1100 g. Sixty groups were randomly selected as a calibration set, and the remaining were used for validation of the sensor's performance. For the combined capacitance/force transducer system, root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) for wet mass flow and moisture content were 13.42% and 16.61%, respectively. RMSEP using the combined volumetric mass flow/capacitance sensor for dry mass flow and moisture content were 22.89% and 24.16%, respectively. Either of the approaches was concluded to be feasible for prediction of moisture content in pine chip flows, but combining the impact and capacitance sensors was easier to implement. In situations where flows could not be impeded, however, the tomographic approach would likely be more useful.

Multivariate Drought Characterization in India for Monitoring and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sreekumaran Unnithan, P.; Mondal, A.

2016-12-01

Droughts are one of the most important natural hazards that affect the society significantly in terms of mortality and productivity. The metric that is most widely used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to monitor and predict the occurrence, spread, intensification and termination of drought is based on the univariate Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). However, droughts may be caused by the influence and interaction of many variables (such as precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, etc.), emphasizing the need for a multivariate approach for drought characterization. This study advocates and illustrates use of the recently proposed multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) in monitoring and prediction of drought and assessing its concerned risk in the Indian region. MSDI combines information from multiple sources: precipitation and soil moisture, and has been deemed to be a more reliable drought index. All-India monthly rainfall and soil moisture data sets are analysed for the period 1980 to 2014 to characterize historical droughts using both the univariate indices, the precipitation-based SPI and the standardized soil moisture index (SSI), as well as the multivariate MSDI using parametric and non-parametric approaches. We confirm that MSDI can capture droughts of 1986 and 1990 that aren't detected by using SPI alone. Moreover, in 1987, MSDI indicated a higher severity of drought when a deficiency in both soil moisture and precipitation was encountered. Further, this study also explores the use of MSDI for drought forecasts and assesses its performance vis-à-vis existing predictions from the IMD. Future research efforts will be directed towards formulating a more robust standardized drought indicator that can take into account socio-economic aspects that also play a key role for water-stressed regions such as India.

Soil moisture and soil temperature variability among three plant communities in a High Arctic Lake Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, M. L.; Konkel, J.; Welker, J. M.; Schaeffer, S. M.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture and soil temperature are critical to plant community distribution and soil carbon cycle processes in High Arctic tundra. As environmental drivers of soil biochemical processes, the predictability of soil moisture and soil temperature by vegetation zone in High Arctic landscapes has significant implications for the use of satellite imagery and vegetation distribution maps to estimate of soil gas flux rates. During the 2017 growing season, we monitored soil moisture and soil temperature weekly at 48 sites in dry tundra, moist tundra, and wet grassland vegetation zones in a High Arctic lake basin. Soil temperature in all three communities reflected fluctuations in air temperature throughout the season. Mean soil temperature was highest in the dry tundra community at 10.5±0.6ºC, however, did not differ between moist tundra and wet grassland communities (2.7±0.6 and 3.1±0.5ºC, respectively). Mean volumetric soil moisture differed significantly among all three plant communities with the lowest and highest soil moisture measured in the dry tundra and wet grassland (30±1.2 and 65±2.7%), respectively. For all three communities, soil moisture was highest during the early season snow melt. Soil moisture in wet grassland remained high with no significant change throughout the season, while significant drying occurred in dry tundra. The most significant change in soil moisture was measured in moist tundra, ranging from 61 to 35%. Our results show different gradients in soil moisture variability within each plant community where: 1) soil moisture was lowest in dry tundra with little change, 2) highest in wet grassland with negligible change, and 3) variable in moist tundra which slowly dried but remained moist. Consistently high soil moisture in wet grassland restricts this plant community to areas with no significant drying during summer. The moist tundra occupies the intermediary areas between wet grassland and dry tundra and experiences the widest range of soil moisture variability. As climate projections predict wetter summers in the High Arctic, expansion of areas with seasonally inundated soils and increased soil moisture variability could result in an expansion of wet grassland and moist tundra communities with a commensurate decrease in dry tundra area.

Hidden Fermi liquid; the moral: a good effective low-energy theory is worth all of Monte Carlo with Las Vegas thrown in

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Philip W.; Casey, Philip A.

2010-04-01

We present a formalism for dealing directly with the effects of the Gutzwiller projection implicit in the t-J model which is widely believed to underlie the phenomenology of the high-Tc cuprates. We suggest that a true Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer condensation from a Fermi liquid state takes place, but in the unphysical space prior to projection. At low doping, however, instead of a hidden Fermi liquid one gets a 'hidden' non-superconducting resonating valence bond state which develops hole pockets upon doping. The theory which results upon projection does not follow conventional rules of diagram theory and in fact in the normal state is a Z = 0 non-Fermi liquid. Anomalous properties of the 'strange metal' normal state are predicted and compared against experimental findings.

Low-lying 1/2- hidden strange pentaquark states in the constituent quark model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hui; Wu, Zong-Xiu; An, Chun-Sheng; Chen, Hong

2017-12-01

We investigate the spectrum of the low-lying 1/2- hidden strange pentaquark states, employing the constituent quark model, and looking at two ways within that model of mediating the hyperfine interaction between quarks - Goldstone boson exchange and one gluon exchange. Numerical results show that the lowest 1/2- hidden strange pentaquark state in the Goldstone boson exchange model lies at ˜1570 MeV, so this pentaquark configuration may form a notable component in S 11(1535) if the Goldstone boson exchange model is applied. This is consistent with the prediction that S 11(1535) couples very strongly to strangeness channels. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (11675131, 11645002), Chongqing Natural Science Foundation (cstc2015jcyjA00032) and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (SWU115020)

Hidden and antiferromagnetic order as a rank-5 superspin in URu2Si2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rau, Jeffrey G.; Kee, Hae-Young

2012-06-01

We propose a candidate for the hidden order in URu2Si2: a rank-5 E type spin-density wave between uranium 5f crystal-field doublets Γ7(1) and Γ7(2), breaking time-reversal and lattice tetragonal symmetry in a manner consistent with recent torque measurements [Okazaki , ScienceSCIEAS0036-807510.1126/science.1197358 331, 439 (2011)]. We argue that coupling of this order parameter to magnetic probes can be hidden by crystal-field effects, while still having significant effects on transport, thermodynamics, and magnetic susceptibilities. In a simple tight-binding model for the heavy quasiparticles, we show the connection between the hidden order and antiferromagnetic phases arises since they form different components of this single rank-5 pseudospin vector. Using a phenomenological theory, we show that the experimental pressure-temperature phase diagram can be qualitatively reproduced by tuning terms which break pseudospin rotational symmetry. As a test of our proposal, we predict the presence of small magnetic moments in the basal plane oriented in the [110] direction ordered at the wave vector (0,0,1).

Understanding Dry Bias in the Simulations of Indian Monsoon by CFSv2 Through Analysis of Moisture Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saheer, Sahana; Pathak, Amey; Mathew, Roxy; Ghosh, Subimal

2016-04-01

Simulations of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) with its seasonal and subseasonal characteristics is highly crucial for predictions/ projections towards sustainable agricultural planning and water resources management. The Climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2), the state of the art coupled climate model developed by National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), is evaluated here for the simulations of ISM. Even though CFSv2 is a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-land model with advanced physics, increased resolution and refined initialization, its ISM simulations/ predictions/ projections, in terms of seasonal mean and variability are not satisfactory. Numerous works have been done for verifying the CFSv2 forecasts in terms of the seasonal mean, its mean and variability, active and break spells, and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon interactions. Underestimation of JJAS precipitation over the Indian land mass is one of the major drawbacks of CFSv2. ISM gets the moisture required to maintain the precipitation from different oceanic and land sources. In this work, we find the fraction of moisture supplied by different sources in the CFSv2 simulations and the findings are compared with observed fractions. We also investigate the possible variations in the moisture contributions from these different sources. We suspect that the deviation in the relative moisture contribution from different sources to various sinks over the monsoon region has resulted in the observed dry bias. We also find that over the Arabian Sea region, which is the key moisture source of ISM, there is a premature built up of specific humidity during the month of May and a decline during the later months of JJAS. This is also one of the reasons for the underestimation of JJAS mean precipitation.

SMAP Data Assimilation at NASA SPoRT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, Clay B.; Case, Jonathan L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.

2016-01-01

The NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center maintains a near-real- time run of the Noah Land Surface Model within the Land Information System (LIS) at 3-km resolution. Soil moisture products from this model are used by several NOAA/National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices for flood and drought situational awareness. We have implemented assimilation of soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Soil Moisture Active/ Passive (SMAP) satellites, and are now evaluating the SMAP assimilation. The SMAP-enhanced LIS product is planned for public release by October 2016.

A multiyear study of soil moisture patterns across agricultural and forested landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgakakos, C. B.; Hofmeister, K.; O'Connor, C.; Buchanan, B.; Walter, T.

2017-12-01

This work compares varying spatial and temporal soil moisture patterns in wet and dry years between forested and agricultural landscapes. This data set spans 6 years (2012-2017) of snow-free soil moisture measurements across multiple watersheds and land covers in New York State's Finger Lakes region. Due to the relatively long sampling period, we have captured fluctuations in soil moisture dynamics across wetter, dryer, and average precipitation years. We can therefore analyze response of land cover types to precipitation under varying climatic and hydrologic conditions. Across the study period, mean soil moisture in forest soils was significantly drier than in agricultural soils, and exhibited a smaller range of moisture conditions. In the drought year of 2016, soil moisture at all sites was significantly drier compared to the other years. When comparing the effects of land cover and year on soil moisture, we found that land cover had a more significant influence. Understanding the difference in landscape soil moisture dynamics between forested and agricultural land will help predict watershed responses to changing precipitation patterns in the future.

Accomplishments of the NASA Johnson Space Center portion of the soil moisture project in fiscal year 1981

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paris, J. F.; Arya, L. M.; Davidson, S. A.; Hildreth, W. W.; Richter, J. C.; Rosenkranz, W. A.

1982-01-01

The NASA/JSC ground scatterometer system was used in a row structure and row direction effects experiment to understand these effects on radar remote sensing of soil moisture. Also, a modification of the scatterometer system was begun and is continuing, to allow cross-polarization experiments to be conducted in fiscal years 1982 and 1983. Preprocessing of the 1978 agricultural soil moisture experiment (ASME) data was completed. Preparations for analysis of the ASME data is fiscal year 1982 were completed. A radar image simulation procedure developed by the University of Kansas is being improved. Profile soil moisture model outputs were compared quantitatively for the same soil and climate conditions. A new model was developed and tested to predict the soil moisture characteristic (water tension versus volumetric soil moisture content) from particle-size distribution and bulk density data. Relationships between surface-zone soil moisture, surface flux, and subsurface moisture conditions are being studied as well as the ways in which measured soil moisture (as obtained from remote sensing) can be used for agricultural applications.

Hum-mPLoc 3.0: prediction enhancement of human protein subcellular localization through modeling the hidden correlations of gene ontology and functional domain features.

PubMed

Zhou, Hang; Yang, Yang; Shen, Hong-Bin

2017-03-15

Protein subcellular localization prediction has been an important research topic in computational biology over the last decade. Various automatic methods have been proposed to predict locations for large scale protein datasets, where statistical machine learning algorithms are widely used for model construction. A key step in these predictors is encoding the amino acid sequences into feature vectors. Many studies have shown that features extracted from biological domains, such as gene ontology and functional domains, can be very useful for improving the prediction accuracy. However, domain knowledge usually results in redundant features and high-dimensional feature spaces, which may degenerate the performance of machine learning models. In this paper, we propose a new amino acid sequence-based human protein subcellular location prediction approach Hum-mPLoc 3.0, which covers 12 human subcellular localizations. The sequences are represented by multi-view complementary features, i.e. context vocabulary annotation-based gene ontology (GO) terms, peptide-based functional domains, and residue-based statistical features. To systematically reflect the structural hierarchy of the domain knowledge bases, we propose a novel feature representation protocol denoted as HCM (Hidden Correlation Modeling), which will create more compact and discriminative feature vectors by modeling the hidden correlations between annotation terms. Experimental results on four benchmark datasets show that HCM improves prediction accuracy by 5-11% and F 1 by 8-19% compared with conventional GO-based methods. A large-scale application of Hum-mPLoc 3.0 on the whole human proteome reveals proteins co-localization preferences in the cell. www.csbio.sjtu.edu.cn/bioinf/Hum-mPLoc3/. hbshen@sjtu.edu.cn. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Application of Modular Modeling System to Predict Evaporation, Infiltration, Air Temperature, and Soil Moisture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boggs, Johnny; Birgan, Latricia J.; Tsegaye, Teferi; Coleman, Tommy; Soman, Vishwas

1997-01-01

Models are used for numerous application including hydrology. The Modular Modeling System (MMS) is one of the few that can simulate a hydrology process. MMS was tested and used to compare infiltration, soil moisture, daily temperature, and potential and actual evaporation for the Elinsboro sandy loam soil and the Mattapex silty loam soil in the Microwave Radiometer Experiment of Soil Moisture Sensing at Beltsville Agriculture Research Test Site in Maryland. An input file for each location was created to nut the model. Graphs were plotted, and it was observed that the model gave a good representation for evaporation for both plots. In comparing the two plots, it was noted that infiltration and soil moisture tend to peak around the same time, temperature peaks in July and August and the peak evaporation was observed on September 15 and July 4 for the Elinsboro Mattapex plot respectively. MMS can be used successfully to predict hydrological processes as long as the proper input parameters are available.

A review of spatial downscaling of satellite remotely sensed soil moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Jian; Loew, Alexander; Merlin, Olivier; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

2017-06-01

Satellite remote sensing technology has been widely used to estimate surface soil moisture. Numerous efforts have been devoted to develop global soil moisture products. However, these global soil moisture products, normally retrieved from microwave remote sensing data, are typically not suitable for regional hydrological and agricultural applications such as irrigation management and flood predictions, due to their coarse spatial resolution. Therefore, various downscaling methods have been proposed to improve the coarse resolution soil moisture products. The purpose of this paper is to review existing methods for downscaling satellite remotely sensed soil moisture. These methods are assessed and compared in terms of their advantages and limitations. This review also provides the accuracy level of these methods based on published validation studies. In the final part, problems and future trends associated with these methods are analyzed.

[Near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy predicts protein, moisture and ash in beans].

PubMed

Gao, Huiyu; Wang, Guodong; Men, Jianhua; Wang, Zhu

2017-05-01

To explore the potential of near-infrared reflectance( NIR)spectroscopy to determine macronutrient contents in beans. NIR spectra and analytical measurements of protein, moisture and ash were collected from 70 kinds of beans. Reference methods were used to analyze all the ground beans samples. NIR spectra on intact and ground beans samples were registered. Partial least-squares( PLS)regression models were developed with principal components analysis( PCA) to assign 49 bean accessions to a calibration data set and 21 accessions to an external validation set. For intact beans, the relative predictive determinant( RPD) values for protein and ash( 3. 67 and 3. 97, respectively) were good for screening. RPD value for moisture was only 1. 39, which was not recommended. For ground beans, the RPD values for protein, moisture and ash( 6. 63, 5. 25 and 3. 57, respectively) were good enough for screening. The protein, moisture and ash levels for intact and ground beans were all significantly correlated( P < 0. 001) between the NIR and reference method and there was no statistically significant difference in the mean with these three traits. This research demonstrates that NIR is a promising technique for simultaneous sorting ofmultiple traits in beans with no or easy sample preparation.

Technical basis for the reduction of the maximum temperature TGA-MS analysis of oxide samples from the 3013 destructive examination program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scogin, J. H.

2016-03-24

Thermogravimetric analysis with mass spectroscopy of the evolved gas (TGA-MS) is used to quantify the moisture content of materials in the 3013 destructive examination (3013 DE) surveillance program. Salts frequently present in the 3013 DE materials volatilize in the TGA and condense in the gas lines just outside the TGA furnace. The buildup of condensate can restrict the flow of purge gas and affect both the TGA operations and the mass spectrometer calibration. Removal of the condensed salts requires frequent maintenance and subsequent calibration runs to keep the moisture measurements by mass spectroscopy within acceptable limits, creating delays in processingmore » samples. In this report, the feasibility of determining the total moisture from TGA-MS measurements at a lower temperature is investigated. A temperature of the TGA-MS analysis which reduces the complications caused by the condensation of volatile materials is determined. Analysis shows that an excellent prediction of the presently measured total moisture value can be made using only the data generated up to 700 °C and there is a sound physical basis for this estimate. It is recommended that the maximum temperature of the TGA-MS determination of total moisture for the 3013 DE program be reduced from 1000 °C to 700 °C. It is also suggested that cumulative moisture measurements at 550 °C and 700°C be substituted for the measured value of total moisture in the 3013 DE database. Using these raw values, any of predictions of the total moisture discussed in this report can be made.« less

Why the predictions for monsoon rainfall fail?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.

2016-12-01

To be in line with the Global Land/Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) international research scheme, this study discusses classical arguments about the feedback mechanisms between land surface and precipitation to improve the predictions of African monsoon rainfall. In order to clarify the impact of antecedent soil moisture on subsequent rainfall evolution, several data sets will be presented. First, in-situ soil moisture field measurements acquired by the AMMA field campaign will be shown together with rain gauge data. This data set will validate various model and satellite data sets such as NOAH land surface model, TRMM rainfall, CMORPH rainfall and HadGEM climate models, SMOS soil moisture. To relate soil moisture with precipitation, two approaches are employed: one approach makes a direct comparison between the spatial distributions of soil moisture as an absolute value and rainfall, while the other measures a temporal evolution of the consecutive dry days (i.e. a relative change within the same soil moisture data set over time) and rainfall occurrences. Consecutive dry days shows consistent results of a negative feedback between soil moisture and rainfall across various data sets, contrary to the direct comparison of soil moisture state. This negative mechanism needs attention, as most climate models usually focus on a positive feedback only. The approach of consecutive dry days takes into account the systematic errors in satellite observations, reminding us that it may cause the misinterpretation to directly compare model with satellite data, due to their difference in data retrievals. This finding is significant, as the climate indices employed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) modelling archive are based on the atmospheric variable rathr than land.

Selection of Hidden Layer Neurons and Best Training Method for FFNN in Application of Long Term Load Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Navneet K.; Singh, Asheesh K.; Tripathy, Manoj

2012-05-01

For power industries electricity load forecast plays an important role for real-time control, security, optimal unit commitment, economic scheduling, maintenance, energy management, and plant structure planning etc. A new technique for long term load forecasting (LTLF) using optimized feed forward artificial neural network (FFNN) architecture is presented in this paper, which selects optimal number of neurons in the hidden layer as well as the best training method for the case study. The prediction performance of proposed technique is evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of Thailand private electricity consumption and forecasted data. The results obtained are compared with the results of classical auto-regressive (AR) and moving average (MA) methods. It is, in general, observed that the proposed method is prediction wise more accurate.

Studies of regional-scale climate variability and change. Hidden Markov models and coupled ocean-atmosphere modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghil, M.; Kravtsov, S.; Robertson, A. W.

2008-10-14

This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding, in which we had developed a twin approach of probabilistic network (PN) models (sometimes called dynamic Bayesian networks) and intermediate-complexity coupled ocean-atmosphere models (ICMs) to identify the predictable modes of climate variability and to investigate their impacts on the regional scale. We had developed a family of PNs (similar to Hidden Markov Models) to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale GCM seasonal predictions. Using an idealized atmospheric model, we had established a novel mechanism through which ocean-induced sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies might influencemore » large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on interannual and longer time scales; we had found similar patterns in a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice model. The goal of the this continuation project was to build on these ICM results and PN model development to address prediction of rainfall and temperature statistics at the local scale, associated with global climate variability and change, and to investigate the impact of the latter on coupled ocean-atmosphere modes. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling together with the development of associated software; new intermediate coupled models; a new methodology of inverse modeling for linking ICMs with observations and GCM results; and, observational studies of decadal and multi-decadal natural climate results, informed by ICM results.« less

Moisture transport across Canada: evidence from stable oxygen and deuterium isotope values of lakes and rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oakley, J. R.; Patterson, W. P.

2008-12-01

Global warming models often contain a prediction of changes in precipitation, yet modern moisture cycling is poorly understood. Stable oxygen and deuterium isotope values of several thousand lake and river water samples collected from 2004 to 2008 throughout Canada and the Northern United States provide a means to evaluate variations in the movement of moisture across the northern North American continent. Our particular focus is on the moisture tracking in the province of Saskatchewan. The dominant moisture source for Saskatchewan is the Gulf of Mexico, though precipitation contains some water from the Pacific and Arctic Oceans as well. By sampling locations multiple times, we established time series of isotope variability that we can relate to meteorological variation. A series of cross-plots of oxygen to deuterium isotopes for each year exhibits an increase in slope from year to year that reflects an increase in humidity and/or precipitation throughout the Prairies from 2004 to 2008. We define the influence of temperature, precipitation and humidity on the change in slope for each suite of samples. Ultimately, by combining our evidence of moisture transport with a grid of long-term secular records from lakes, speleothems and tree-ring isotope variability, we can not only reconstruct changes in atmospheric circulation through time, but also better predict what will happen in the future under various global climate change scenarios.

CORRELATION OF FLORIDA SOIL-GAS PERMEABILITIES WITH GRAIN SIZE, MOISTURE, AND POROSITY

EPA Science Inventory

The report describes a new correlation or predicting gas permeabilities of undisturbed or recompacted soils from their average grain diameter (d), moisture saturation factor (m), and porosity (p). he correlation exhibits a geometric standard deviation (GSD) of only 1.27 between m...

Switchgrass growth and effects on biomass accumulation, moisture content, and nutrient removal

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Temporal patterns of plant growth, composition, and nutrient removal impact development of models for predicting optimal harvest times of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) for bioenergy. Objectives were to characterize seasonal trends in yield, tissue moisture, ash content, leaf area index (LAI), in...

Optimal averaging of soil moisture predictions from ensemble land surface model simulations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The correct interpretation of ensemble 3 soil moisture information obtained from the parallel implementation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) requires information concerning the LSM ensemble’s mutual error covariance. Here we propose a new technique for obtaining such information using an inst...

Utilization of satellite data and regional scale numerical models in short range weather forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreitzberg, C. W.

1985-01-01

Overwhelming evidence was developed in a number of studies of satellite data impact on numerical weather prediction that it is unrealistic to expect satellite temperature soundings to improve detailed regional numerical weather prediction. It is likely that satellite data over the United States would substantially impact mesoscale dynamical predictions if the effort were made to develop a composite moisture analysis system. The horizontal variability of moisture, most clearly depicited in images from satellite water vapor channels, would not be determined from conventional rawinsondes even if that network were increased by a doubling of both the number of sites and the time frequency.

Observational breakthroughs lead the way to improved hydrological predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2017-04-01

New data sources are revolutionizing the hydrological sciences. The capabilities of hydrological models have advanced greatly over the last several decades, but until recently model capabilities have outstripped the spatial resolution and accuracy of model forcings (atmospheric variables at the land surface) and the hydrologic state variables (e.g., soil moisture; snow water equivalent) that the models predict. This has begun to change, as shown in two examples here: soil moisture and drought evolution over Africa as predicted by a hydrology model forced with satellite-derived precipitation, and observations of snow water equivalent at very high resolution over a river basin in California's Sierra Nevada.

Accounting for Slipping and Other False Negatives in Logistic Models of Student Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacLellan, Christopher J.; Liu, Ran; Koedinger, Kenneth R.

2015-01-01

Additive Factors Model (AFM) and Performance Factors Analysis (PFA) are two popular models of student learning that employ logistic regression to estimate parameters and predict performance. This is in contrast to Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) which uses a Hidden Markov Model formalism. While all three models tend to make similar predictions,…

Regional-scale estimates of surface moisture availability and thermal inertia using remote thermal measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, T. N.

1986-01-01

A review is presented of numerical models which were developed to interpret thermal IR data and to identify the governing parameters and surface energy fluxes recorded in the images. Analytic, predictive, diagnostic and empirical models are described. The limitations of each type of modeling approach are explored in terms of the error sources and inherent constraints due to theoretical or measurement limitations. Sample results of regional-scale soil moisture or evaporation patterns derived from the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission and GOES satellite data through application of the predictive model devised by Carlson (1981) are discussed. The analysis indicates that pattern recognition will probably be highest when data are collected over flat, arid, sparsely vegetated terrain. The soil moisture data then obtained may be accurate to within 10-20 percent.

Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales

PubMed Central

Sheen, K. L.; Smith, D. M.; Dunstone, N. J.; Eade, R.; Rowell, D. P.; Vellinga, M.

2017-01-01

Summer rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa exhibits one of the largest signals of climatic variability and with a population reliant on agricultural productivity, the Sahel is particularly vulnerable to major droughts such as occurred in the 1970s and 1980s. Rainfall levels have subsequently recovered, but future projections remain uncertain. Here we show that Sahel rainfall is skilfully predicted on inter-annual and multi-year (that is, >5 years) timescales and use these predictions to better understand the driving mechanisms. Moisture budget analysis indicates that on multi-year timescales, a warmer north Atlantic and Mediterranean enhance Sahel rainfall through increased meridional convergence of low-level, externally sourced moisture. In contrast, year-to-year rainfall levels are largely determined by the recycling rate of local moisture, regulated by planetary circulation patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Our findings aid improved understanding and forecasting of Sahel drought, paramount for successful adaptation strategies in a changing climate. PMID:28541288

Assimilation of SMOS Soil Moisture Retrievals in the Land Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, Clay; Case, Jonathan L.; Zavodsky, Brad

2014-01-01

Soil moisture is a crucial variable for weather prediction because of its influence on evaporation. It is of critical importance for drought and flood monitoring and prediction and for public health applications. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) has implemented a new module in the NASA Land Information System (LIS) to assimilate observations from the ESA's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. SMOS Level 2 retrievals from the Microwave Imaging Radiometer using Aperture Synthesis (MIRAS) instrument are assimilated into the Noah LSM within LIS via an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The retrievals have a target volumetric accuracy of 4% at a resolution of 35-50 km. Parallel runs with and without SMOS assimilation are performed with precipitation forcing from intentionally degraded observations, and then validated against a model run using the best available precipitation data, as well as against selected station observations. The goal is to demonstrate how SMOS data assimilation can improve modeled soil states in the absence of dense rain gauge and radar networks.

Plant hydraulics improves and topography mediates prediction of aspen mortality in southwestern USA.

PubMed

Tai, Xiaonan; Mackay, D Scott; Anderegg, William R L; Sperry, John S; Brooks, Paul D

2017-01-01

Elevated forest mortality has been attributed to climate change-induced droughts, but prediction of spatial mortality patterns remains challenging. We evaluated whether introducing plant hydraulics and topographic convergence-induced soil moisture variation to land surface models (LSM) can help explain spatial patterns of mortality. A scheme predicting plant hydraulic safety loss from soil moisture was developed using field measurements and a plant physiology-hydraulics model, TREES. The scheme was upscaled to Populus tremuloides forests across Colorado, USA, using LSM-modeled and topography-mediated soil moisture, respectively. The spatial patterns of hydraulic safety loss were compared against aerial surveyed mortality. Incorporating hydraulic safety loss raised the explanatory power of mortality by 40% compared to LSM-modeled soil moisture. Topographic convergence was mostly influential in suppressing mortality in low and concave areas, explaining an additional 10% of the variations in mortality for those regions. Plant hydraulics integrated water stress along the soil-plant continuum and was more closely tied to plant physiological response to drought. In addition to the well-recognized topo-climate influence due to elevation and aspect, we found evidence that topographic convergence mediates tree mortality in certain parts of the landscape that are low and convergent, likely through influences on plant-available water. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Two-dimensional hidden semantic information model for target saliency detection and eyetracking identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Weibing; Yuan, Lingfeng; Zhao, Qunfei; Fang, Tao

2018-01-01

Saliency detection has been applied to the target acquisition case. This paper proposes a two-dimensional hidden Markov model (2D-HMM) that exploits the hidden semantic information of an image to detect its salient regions. A spatial pyramid histogram of oriented gradient descriptors is used to extract features. After encoding the image by a learned dictionary, the 2D-Viterbi algorithm is applied to infer the saliency map. This model can predict fixation of the targets and further creates robust and effective depictions of the targets' change in posture and viewpoint. To validate the model with a human visual search mechanism, two eyetrack experiments are employed to train our model directly from eye movement data. The results show that our model achieves better performance than visual attention. Moreover, it indicates the plausibility of utilizing visual track data to identify targets.

Sacrificial bonds and hidden length in biomaterials: A kinetic constitutive description of strength and toughness in bone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieou, Charles K. C.; Elbanna, Ahmed E.; Carlson, Jean M.

2013-07-01

Sacrificial bonds and hidden length in structural molecules account for the greatly increased fracture toughness of biological materials compared to synthetic materials without such structural features by providing a molecular-scale mechanism for energy dissipation. One example is in the polymeric glue connection between collagen fibrils in animal bone. In this paper we propose a simple kinetic model that describes the breakage of sacrificial bonds and the release of hidden length, based on Bell's theory. We postulate a master equation governing the rates of bond breakage and formation. This enables us to predict the mechanical behavior of a quasi-one-dimensional ensemble of polymers at different stretching rates. We find that both the rupture peak heights and maximum stretching distance increase with the stretching rate. In addition, our theory naturally permits the possibility of self-healing in such biological structures.

Evapotranspiration from nonuniform surfaces - A first approach for short-term numerical weather prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wetzel, Peter J.; Chang, Jy-Tai

1988-01-01

Observations of surface heterogeneity of soil moisture from scales of meters to hundreds of kilometers are discussed, and a relationship between grid element size and soil moisture variability is presented. An evapotranspiration model is presented which accounts for the variability of soil moisture, standing surface water, and vegetation internal and stomatal resistance to moisture flow from the soil. The mean values and standard deviations of these parameters are required as input to the model. Tests of this model against field observations are reported, and extensive sensitivity tests are presented which explore the importance of including subgrid-scale variability in an evapotranspiration model.

Simultaneous moisture content and mass flow measurements in wood chip flows using coupled dielectric and impact sensors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pan, Pengmin; McDonald, Timothy; Fulton, John

An 8-electrode capacitance tomography (ECT) sensor was built and used to measure moisture content (MC) and mass flow of pine chip flows. The device was capable of directly measuring total water quantity in a sample but was sensitive to both dry matter and moisture, and therefore required a second measurement of mass flow to calculate MC. Two means of calculating the mass flow were used: the first being an impact sensor to measure total mass flow, and the second a volumetric approach based on measuring total area occupied by wood in images generated using the capacitance sensor’s tomographic mode. Testsmore » were made on 109 groups of wood chips ranging in moisture content from 14% to 120% (dry basis) and wet weight of 280 to 1100 g. Sixty groups were randomly selected as a calibration set, and the remaining were used for validation of the sensor’s performance. For the combined capacitance/force transducer system, root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) for wet mass flow and moisture content were 13.42% and 16.61%, respectively. RMSEP using the combined volumetric mass flow/capacitance sensor for dry mass flow and moisture content were 22.89% and 24.16%, respectively. Either of the approaches was concluded to be feasible for prediction of moisture content in pine chip flows, but combining the impact and capacitance sensors was easier to implement. As a result, in situations where flows could not be impeded, however, the tomographic approach would likely be more useful.« less

Simultaneous moisture content and mass flow measurements in wood chip flows using coupled dielectric and impact sensors

DOE PAGES

Pan, Pengmin; McDonald, Timothy; Fulton, John; ...

2016-12-23

An 8-electrode capacitance tomography (ECT) sensor was built and used to measure moisture content (MC) and mass flow of pine chip flows. The device was capable of directly measuring total water quantity in a sample but was sensitive to both dry matter and moisture, and therefore required a second measurement of mass flow to calculate MC. Two means of calculating the mass flow were used: the first being an impact sensor to measure total mass flow, and the second a volumetric approach based on measuring total area occupied by wood in images generated using the capacitance sensor’s tomographic mode. Testsmore » were made on 109 groups of wood chips ranging in moisture content from 14% to 120% (dry basis) and wet weight of 280 to 1100 g. Sixty groups were randomly selected as a calibration set, and the remaining were used for validation of the sensor’s performance. For the combined capacitance/force transducer system, root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) for wet mass flow and moisture content were 13.42% and 16.61%, respectively. RMSEP using the combined volumetric mass flow/capacitance sensor for dry mass flow and moisture content were 22.89% and 24.16%, respectively. Either of the approaches was concluded to be feasible for prediction of moisture content in pine chip flows, but combining the impact and capacitance sensors was easier to implement. As a result, in situations where flows could not be impeded, however, the tomographic approach would likely be more useful.« less

Simultaneous Moisture Content and Mass Flow Measurements in Wood Chip Flows Using Coupled Dielectric and Impact Sensors

PubMed Central

Pan, Pengmin; McDonald, Timothy; Fulton, John; Via, Brian; Hung, John

2016-01-01

An 8-electrode capacitance tomography (ECT) sensor was built and used to measure moisture content (MC) and mass flow of pine chip flows. The device was capable of directly measuring total water quantity in a sample but was sensitive to both dry matter and moisture, and therefore required a second measurement of mass flow to calculate MC. Two means of calculating the mass flow were used: the first being an impact sensor to measure total mass flow, and the second a volumetric approach based on measuring total area occupied by wood in images generated using the capacitance sensor’s tomographic mode. Tests were made on 109 groups of wood chips ranging in moisture content from 14% to 120% (dry basis) and wet weight of 280 to 1100 g. Sixty groups were randomly selected as a calibration set, and the remaining were used for validation of the sensor’s performance. For the combined capacitance/force transducer system, root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) for wet mass flow and moisture content were 13.42% and 16.61%, respectively. RMSEP using the combined volumetric mass flow/capacitance sensor for dry mass flow and moisture content were 22.89% and 24.16%, respectively. Either of the approaches was concluded to be feasible for prediction of moisture content in pine chip flows, but combining the impact and capacitance sensors was easier to implement. In situations where flows could not be impeded, however, the tomographic approach would likely be more useful. PMID:28025536

Using Flux Site Observations to Calibrate Root System Architecture Stencils for Water Uptake of Plant Functional Types in Land Surface Models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouda, M.

2017-12-01

Root system architecture (RSA) can significantly affect plant access to water, total transpiration, as well as its partitioning by soil depth, with implications for surface heat, water, and carbon budgets. Despite recent advances in land surface model (LSM) descriptions of plant hydraulics, RSA has not been included because of its three-dimensional complexity, which makes RSA modelling generally too computationally costly. This work builds upon the recently introduced "RSA stencil," a process-based 1D layered model that captures the dynamic shifts in water potential gradients of 3D RSA in response to heterogeneous soil moisture profiles. In validations using root systems calibrated to the rooting profiles of four plant functional types (PFT) of the Community Land Model, the RSA stencil predicts plant water potentials within 2% of the outputs of full 3D models, despite its trivial computational cost. In transient simulations, the RSA stencil yields improved predictions of water uptake and soil moisture profiles compared to a 1D model based on root fraction alone. Here I show how the RSA stencil can be calibrated to time-series observations of soil moisture and transpiration to yield a water uptake PFT definition for use in terrestrial models. This model-data integration exercise aims to improve LSM predictions of soil moisture dynamics and, under water-limiting conditions, surface fluxes. These improvements can be expected to significantly impact predictions of downstream variables, including surface fluxes, climate-vegetation feedbacks and soil nutrient cycling.

Improving streamflow prediction using remotely-sensed soil moisture and snow depth

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The monitoring of both cold and warm season hydrologic processes in headwater watersheds is critical for accurate water resource monitoring in many alpine regions. This work presents a new method that explores the simultaneous use of remotely sensed surface soil moisture (SM) and snow depth (SD) ret...

Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

Science.gov Websites

SEASONAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY, INCLUDING ENSO, SOIL MOISTURE, AND VARIOUS STATE-OF-THE-ART DYNAMICAL MODEL ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS CENTERED ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS DUE TO VERY HIGH SOIL TRENDS, NEGATIVE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES, LAGGED ENSO REGRESSIONS, AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE ALL

FPL roof temperature and moisture model : description and verification

Treesearch

A. TenWolde

This paper describes a mathematical model developed by the Forest Products Laboratory to predict attic temperatures, relative humidities, and roof sheathing moisture content. Comparison of data from model simulation and measured data provided limited validation of the model and led to the following conclusions: (1) the model can...

Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berg, Alexis; Sheffield, Justin; Milly, Paul C.D.

2017-01-01

Land aridity has been projected to increase with global warming. Such projections are mostly based on off-line aridity and drought metrics applied to climate model outputs but also are supported by climate-model projections of decreased surface soil moisture. Here we comprehensively analyze soil moisture projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, including surface, total, and layer-by-layer soil moisture. We identify a robust vertical gradient of projected mean soil moisture changes, with more negative changes near the surface. Some regions of the northern middle to high latitudes exhibit negative annual surface changes but positive total changes. We interpret this behavior in the context of seasonal changes in the surface water budget. This vertical pattern implies that the extensive drying predicted by off-line drought metrics, while consistent with the projected decline in surface soil moisture, will tend to overestimate (negatively) changes in total soil water availability.

STDP Installs in Winner-Take-All Circuits an Online Approximation to Hidden Markov Model Learning

PubMed Central

Kappel, David; Nessler, Bernhard; Maass, Wolfgang

2014-01-01

In order to cross a street without being run over, we need to be able to extract very fast hidden causes of dynamically changing multi-modal sensory stimuli, and to predict their future evolution. We show here that a generic cortical microcircuit motif, pyramidal cells with lateral excitation and inhibition, provides the basis for this difficult but all-important information processing capability. This capability emerges in the presence of noise automatically through effects of STDP on connections between pyramidal cells in Winner-Take-All circuits with lateral excitation. In fact, one can show that these motifs endow cortical microcircuits with functional properties of a hidden Markov model, a generic model for solving such tasks through probabilistic inference. Whereas in engineering applications this model is adapted to specific tasks through offline learning, we show here that a major portion of the functionality of hidden Markov models arises already from online applications of STDP, without any supervision or rewards. We demonstrate the emergent computing capabilities of the model through several computer simulations. The full power of hidden Markov model learning can be attained through reward-gated STDP. This is due to the fact that these mechanisms enable a rejection sampling approximation to theoretically optimal learning. We investigate the possible performance gain that can be achieved with this more accurate learning method for an artificial grammar task. PMID:24675787

Developing a Soil Moisture Index for California Grasslands from Airborne Hyperspectral Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flamme, H. E.; Roberts, D. A.; Miller, D. L.

2016-12-01

Soil moisture is a key environmental factor controlling vegetation diversity and productivity, evaporation, transpiration, and rainfall runoff. Despite the contribution of soil moisture to ecological productivity, the hydrologic cycle, and erosion, it is currently not being monitored as accurately or as frequently as other environmental factors. Traditional soil moisture monitoring techniques rely on in situ measurements, which become costly when evaluating areas of unevenly distributed soil characteristics and varying topography. Alternatively, satellite remote sensing, such as passive microwave from SMAP, can provide soil moisture but only at very coarse spatial resolutions. Imagery from the Airborne Visible / Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) has the potential to allow better spatial and temporal monitoring of soil moisture. This study established a relationship between plant available water and hyperspectral reflectance via linear regressions of data from 2013-2015 for two grassland field sites: 1) near Santa Barbara, California, at Coal Oil Point Reserve (COPR) and 2) Airstrip station (AIRS) at UC Santa Barbara's Sedgwick Reserve near Santa Ynez, California. Volumetric soil moisture measurements at 10 cm and 20 cm depths were provided by meteorological stations situated in COPR and AIRS while reflectance data were extracted from AVIRIS. We found strong correlations between plant available water and bands centered at wavelengths 704 nm and 831 nm, which we used to create Hyperspectral Soil Moisture Index (HSMI): 0.38((ρ831-ρ704)/(ρ831+ρ704))-0.02. HSMI demonstrated a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.71 for linear regressions of reflectance versus plant available water with a lag time of 28 days. We applied HSMI to the AIRS and COPR grasslands for 2011 AVIRIS scenes. Plant available water values predicted by HSMI were 0.039 higher at AIRS and 0.048 higher at COPR than the field measurements at the sites. Differences in grass species, soil composition, and climate between COPR and AIRS likely contributed to the errors in the soil moisture predicted by HSMI.

Development of an Objective High Spatial Resolution Soil Moisture Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.; White, K.; Bell, J. R.

2015-12-01

Drought detection, analysis, and mitigation has become a key challenge for a diverse set of decision makers, including but not limited to operational weather forecasters, climatologists, agricultural interests, and water resource management. One tool that is heavily used is the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), which is derived from a complex blend of objective data and subjective analysis on a state-by-state basis using a variety of modeled and observed precipitation, soil moisture, hydrologic, and vegetation and crop health data. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center currently runs a real-time configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The LIS-Noah is run at 3-km resolution for local numerical weather prediction (NWP) and situational awareness applications at select NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) forecast offices over the Continental U.S. (CONUS). To enhance the practicality of the LIS-Noah output for drought monitoring and assessing flood potential, a 30+-year soil moisture climatology has been developed in an attempt to place near real-time soil moisture values in historical context at county- and/or watershed-scale resolutions. This LIS-Noah soil moisture climatology and accompanying anomalies is intended to complement the current suite of operational products, such as the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS-2), which are generated on a coarser-resolution grid that may not capture localized, yet important soil moisture features. Daily soil moisture histograms are used to identify the real-time soil moisture percentiles at each grid point according to the county or watershed in which the grid point resides. Spatial plots are then produced that map the percentiles as proxies to the different USDM categories. This presentation will highlight recent developments of this gridded, objective soil moisture index, comparison to subjective analyses, and application examples.

Determinism, independence, and objectivity are incompatible.

PubMed

Ionicioiu, Radu; Mann, Robert B; Terno, Daniel R

2015-02-13

Hidden-variable models aim to reproduce the results of quantum theory and to satisfy our classical intuition. Their refutation is usually based on deriving predictions that are different from those of quantum mechanics. Here instead we study the mutual compatibility of apparently reasonable classical assumptions. We analyze a version of the delayed-choice experiment which ostensibly combines determinism, independence of hidden variables on the conducted experiments, and wave-particle objectivity (the assertion that quantum systems are, at any moment, either particles or waves, but not both). These three ideas are incompatible with any theory, not only with quantum mechanics.

High-frequency guided ultrasonic waves for hidden defect detection in multi-layered aircraft structures.

PubMed

Masserey, Bernard; Raemy, Christian; Fromme, Paul

2014-09-01

Aerospace structures often contain multi-layered metallic components where hidden defects such as fatigue cracks and localized disbonds can develop, necessitating non-destructive testing. Employing standard wedge transducers, high frequency guided ultrasonic waves that penetrate through the complete thickness were generated in a model structure consisting of two adhesively bonded aluminium plates. Interference occurs between the wave modes during propagation along the structure, resulting in a frequency dependent variation of the energy through the thickness with distance. The wave propagation along the specimen was measured experimentally using a laser interferometer. Good agreement with theoretical predictions and two-dimensional finite element simulations was found. Significant propagation distance with a strong, non-dispersive main wave pulse was achieved. The interaction of the high frequency guided ultrasonic waves with small notches in the aluminium layer facing the sealant and on the bottom surface of the multilayer structure was investigated. Standard pulse-echo measurements were conducted to verify the detection sensitivity and the influence of the stand-off distance predicted from the finite element simulations. The results demonstrated the potential of high frequency guided waves for hidden defect detection at critical and difficult to access locations in aerospace structures from a stand-off distance. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Examination of Soil Moisture Retrieval Using SIR-C Radar Data and a Distributed Hydrological Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsu, A. Y.; ONeill, P. E.; Wood, E. F.; Zion, M.

1997-01-01

A major objective of soil moisture-related hydrological-research during NASA's SIR-C/X-SAR mission was to determine and compare soil moisture patterns within humid watersheds using SAR data, ground-based measurements, and hydrologic modeling. Currently available soil moisture-inversion methods using active microwave data are only accurate when applied to bare and slightly vegetated surfaces. Moreover, as the surface dries down, the number of pixels that can provide estimated soil moisture by these radar inversion methods decreases, leading to less accuracy and, confidence in the retrieved soil moisture fields at the watershed scale. The impact of these errors in microwave- derived soil moisture on hydrological modeling of vegetated watersheds has yet to be addressed. In this study a coupled water and energy balance model operating within a topographic framework is used to predict surface soil moisture for both bare and vegetated areas. In the first model run, the hydrological model is initialized using a standard baseflow approach, while in the second model run, soil moisture values derived from SIR-C radar data are used for initialization. The results, which compare favorably with ground measurements, demonstrate the utility of combining radar-derived surface soil moisture information with basin-scale hydrological modeling.

Prediction of Moisture Content for Congou Black Tea Withering Leaves Using Image Features and Nonlinear Method.

PubMed

Liang, Gaozhen; Dong, Chunwang; Hu, Bin; Zhu, Hongkai; Yuan, Haibo; Jiang, Yongwen; Hao, Guoshuang

2018-05-18

Withering is the first step in the processing of congou black tea. With respect to the deficiency of traditional water content detection methods, a machine vision based NDT (Non Destructive Testing) method was established to detect the moisture content of withered leaves. First, according to the time sequences using computer visual system collected visible light images of tea leaf surfaces, and color and texture characteristics are extracted through the spatial changes of colors. Then quantitative prediction models for moisture content detection of withered tea leaves was established through linear PLS (Partial Least Squares) and non-linear SVM (Support Vector Machine). The results showed correlation coefficients higher than 0.8 between the water contents and green component mean value (G), lightness component mean value (L * ) and uniformity (U), which means that the extracted characteristics have great potential to predict the water contents. The performance parameters as correlation coefficient of prediction set (Rp), root-mean-square error of prediction (RMSEP), and relative standard deviation (RPD) of the SVM prediction model are 0.9314, 0.0411 and 1.8004, respectively. The non-linear modeling method can better describe the quantitative analytical relations between the image and water content. With superior generalization and robustness, the method would provide a new train of thought and theoretical basis for the online water content monitoring technology of automated production of black tea.

A new model to predict diffusive self-heating during composting incorporating the reaction engineering approach (REA) framework.

PubMed

Putranto, Aditya; Chen, Xiao Dong

2017-05-01

During composting, self-heating may occur due to the exothermicities of the chemical and biological reactions. An accurate model for predicting maximum temperature is useful in predicting whether the phenomena would occur and to what extent it would have undergone. Elevated temperatures would lead to undesirable situations such as the release of large amount of toxic gases or sometimes would even lead to spontaneous combustion. In this paper, we report a new model for predicting the profiles of temperature, concentration of oxygen, moisture content and concentration of water vapor during composting. The model, which consists of a set of equations of conservation of heat and mass transfer as well as biological heating term, employs the reaction engineering approach (REA) framework to describe the local evaporation/condensation rate quantitatively. A good agreement between the predicted and experimental data of temperature during composting of sewage sludge is observed. The modeling indicates that the maximum temperature is achieved after some 46weeks of composting. Following this period, the temperature decreases in line with a significant decrease in moisture content and a tremendous increase in concentration of water vapor, indicating the massive cooling effect due to water evaporation. The spatial profiles indicate that the maximum temperature is approximately located at the middle-bottom of the compost piles. Towards the upper surface of the piles, the moisture content and concentration of water vapor decreases due to the moisture transfer to the surrounding. The newly proposed model can be used as reliable simulation tool to explore several geometry configurations and operating conditions for avoiding elevated temperature build-up and self-heating during industrial composting. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of multi-frequency electromagnetic induction for determining soil moisture patterns at the hillslope scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tromp-van Meerveld, H. J.; McDonnell, J. J.

2009-04-01

SummaryHillslopes are fundamental landscape units, yet represent a difficult scale for measurements as they are well-beyond our traditional point-scale techniques. Here we present an assessment of electromagnetic induction (EM) as a potential rapid and non-invasive method to map soil moisture patterns at the hillslope scale. We test the new multi-frequency GEM-300 for spatially distributed soil moisture measurements at the well-instrumented Panola hillslope. EM-based apparent conductivity measurements were linearly related to soil moisture measured with the Aqua-pro capacitance sensor below a threshold conductivity and represented the temporal patterns in soil moisture well. During spring rainfall events that wetted only the surface soil layers the apparent conductivity measurements explained the soil moisture dynamics at depth better than the surface soil moisture dynamics. All four EM frequencies (7.290, 9.090, 11.250, and 14.010 kHz) were highly correlated and linearly related to each other and could be used to predict soil moisture. This limited our ability to use the four different EM frequencies to obtain a soil moisture profile with depth. The apparent conductivity patterns represented the observed spatial soil moisture patterns well when the individually fitted relationships between measured soil moisture and apparent conductivity were used for each measurement point. However, when the same (master) relationship was used for all measurement locations, the soil moisture patterns were smoothed and did not resemble the observed soil moisture patterns very well. In addition the range in calculated soil moisture values was reduced compared to observed soil moisture. Part of the smoothing was likely due to the much larger measurement area of the GEM-300 compared to the soil moisture measurements.

Improving operational flood ensemble prediction by the assimilation of satellite soil moisture: comparison between lumped and semi-distributed schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Garreton, C.; Ryu, D.; Western, A. W.; Su, C.-H.; Crow, W. T.; Robertson, D. E.; Leahy, C.

2014-09-01

Assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture data (SM-DA) to correct soil water stores of rainfall-runoff models has shown skill in improving streamflow prediction. In the case of large and sparsely monitored catchments, SM-DA is a particularly attractive tool. Within this context, we assimilate active and passive satellite soil moisture (SSM) retrievals using an ensemble Kalman filter to improve operational flood prediction within a large semi-arid catchment in Australia (>40 000 km2). We assess the importance of accounting for channel routing and the spatial distribution of forcing data by applying SM-DA to a lumped and a semi-distributed scheme of the probability distributed model (PDM). Our scheme also accounts for model error representation and seasonal biases and errors in the satellite data. Before assimilation, the semi-distributed model provided more accurate streamflow prediction (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, NS = 0.77) than the lumped model (NS = 0.67) at the catchment outlet. However, this did not ensure good performance at the "ungauged" inner catchments. After SM-DA, the streamflow ensemble prediction at the outlet was improved in both the lumped and the semi-distributed schemes: the root mean square error of the ensemble was reduced by 27 and 31%, respectively; the NS of the ensemble mean increased by 7 and 38%, respectively; the false alarm ratio was reduced by 15 and 25%, respectively; and the ensemble prediction spread was reduced while its reliability was maintained. Our findings imply that even when rainfall is the main driver of flooding in semi-arid catchments, adequately processed SSM can be used to reduce errors in the model soil moisture, which in turn provides better streamflow ensemble prediction. We demonstrate that SM-DA efficacy is enhanced when the spatial distribution in forcing data and routing processes are accounted for. At ungauged locations, SM-DA is effective at improving streamflow ensemble prediction, however, the updated prediction is still poor since SM-DA does not address systematic errors in the model.

Application of Deep Learning and Supervised Learning Methods to Recognize Nonlinear Hidden Pattern in Water Stress Levels from Spatiotemporal Datasets across Rural and Urban US Counties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisenhart, T.; Josset, L.; Rising, J. A.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

In the wake of recent water crises, the need to understand and predict the risk of water stress in urban and rural areas has grown. This understanding has the potential to improve decision making in public resource management, policy making, risk management and investment decisions. Assuming an underlying relationship between urban and rural water stress and observable features, we apply Deep Learning and Supervised Learning models to uncover hidden nonlinear patterns from spatiotemporal datasets. Results of interest includes prediction accuracy on extreme categories (i.e. urban areas highly prone to water stress) and not solely the average risk for urban or rural area, which adds complexity to the tuning of model parameters. We first label urban water stressed counties using annual water quality violations and compile a comprehensive spatiotemporal dataset that captures the yearly evolution of climatic, demographic and economic factors of more than 3,000 US counties over the 1980-2010 period. As county-level data reporting is not done on a yearly basis, we test multiple imputation methods to get around the issue of missing data. Using Python libraries, TensorFlow and scikit-learn, we apply and compare the ability of, amongst other methods, Recurrent Neural Networks (testing both LSTM and GRU cells), Convolutional Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines to predict urban water stress. We evaluate the performance of those models over multiple time spans and combine methods to diminish the risk of overfitting and increase prediction power on test sets. This methodology seeks to identify hidden nonlinear patterns to assess the predominant data features that influence urban and rural water stress. Results from this application at the national scale will assess the performance of deep learning models to predict water stress risk areas across all US counties and will highlight a predominant Machine Learning method for modeling water stress risk using spatiotemporal data.

Modeling of the Assiniboine Delta Aquifer (ADA) of Manitoba using the Groundwater Storage from GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yirdaw-Zeleke, S.; Snelgrove, K.

2007-12-01

This paper investigates the use of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) moisture storages for modeling of the Assiniboine Delta Aquifer (ADA) of Manitoba, Canada. There are great promises from GRACE in capturing regional groundwater storages that are potentially used for modeling application. However, it is well known that these storages are difficult to measure over the scales needed for hydrological model applications. Therefore, prior to modeling the aquifer using GRACE moisture storages, the storages need to be downscaled in to regional groundwater storages using the measured groundwater head data available in the area. Previous studies in the ADA have shown that the downscaled moisture storage estimates compared favorably with the measured groundwater storage over the area. This study focuses on the modeling of the ADA aquifer using the downscaled GRACE moisture storages. These storages will be used to initialize, calibration and potentially steer the hydrologic simulation. The calibrated model then will be validated independently using the measured data. These validations will hopefully provide better explanations for the underlying reasons for the differences in model predictions and measurements. This will identify some of the key assumptions and uncertainties in predicting moisture storage, and so highlight topics for further discussion and research.

Variability and scaling of hydraulic properties for 200 Area soils, Hanford Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khaleel, R.; Freeman, E.J.

Over the years, data have been obtained on soil hydraulic properties at the Hanford Site. Much of these data have been obtained as part of recent site characterization activities for the Environmental Restoration Program. The existing data on vadose zone soil properties are, however, fragmented and documented in reports that have not been formally reviewed and released. This study helps to identify, compile, and interpret all available data for the principal soil types in the 200 Areas plateau. Information on particle-size distribution, moisture retention, and saturated hydraulic conductivity (K{sub s}) is available for 183 samples from 12 sites in themore » 200 Areas. Data on moisture retention and K{sub s} are corrected for gravel content. After the data are corrected and cataloged, hydraulic parameters are determined by fitting the van Genuchten soil-moisture retention model to the data. A nonlinear parameter estimation code, RETC, is used. The unsaturated hydraulic conductivity relationship can subsequently be predicted using the van Genuchten parameters, Mualem`s model, and laboratory-measured saturated hydraulic conductivity estimates. Alternatively, provided unsaturated conductivity measurements are available, the moisture retention curve-fitting parameters, Mualem`s model, and a single unsaturated conductivity measurement can be used to predict unsaturated conductivities for the desired range of field moisture regime.« less

A Moisture Function of Soil Heterotrophic Respiration Derived from Pore-scale Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Z.; Todd-Brown, K. E.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Bailey, V.; Liu, C.

2017-12-01

Soil heterotrophic respiration (HR) is an important process controlling carbon (C) flux, but its response to changes in soil water content (θ) is poorly understood. Earth system models (ESMs) use empirical moisture functions developed from specific sites to describe the HR-θ relationship in soils, introducing significant uncertainty. Generalized models derived from mechanisms that control substrate availability and microbial respiration are thus urgently needed. Here we derive, present, and test a novel moisture function fp developed from pore-scale mechanisms. This fp encapsulates primary physicochemical and biological processes controlling HR response to moisture variation in soils. We tested fp against a wide range of published data for different soil types, and found that fp reliably predicted diverse HR- relationships. The mathematical relationship between the parameters in fp and macroscopic soil properties such as porosity and organic C content was also established, enabling to estimate fp using soil properties. Compared with empirical moisture functions used in ESMs, this derived fp could reduce uncertainty in predicting the response of soil organic C stock to climate changes. In addition, this work is one of the first studies to upscale a mechanistic soil HR model based on pore-scale processes, thus linking the pore-scale mechanisms with macroscale observations.

Oxytocin enhances pupil dilation and sensitivity to 'hidden' emotional expressions.

PubMed

Leknes, Siri; Wessberg, Johan; Ellingsen, Dan-Mikael; Chelnokova, Olga; Olausson, Håkan; Laeng, Bruno

2013-10-01

Sensing others' emotions through subtle facial expressions is a highly important social skill. We investigated the effects of intranasal oxytocin treatment on the evaluation of explicit and 'hidden' emotional expressions and related the results to individual differences in sensitivity to others' subtle expressions of anger and happiness. Forty healthy volunteers participated in this double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover study, which shows that a single dose of intranasal oxytocin (40 IU) enhanced or 'sharpened' evaluative processing of others' positive and negative facial expression for both explicit and hidden emotional information. Our results point to mechanisms that could underpin oxytocin's prosocial effects in humans. Importantly, individual differences in baseline emotional sensitivity predicted oxytocin's effects on the ability to sense differences between faces with hidden emotional information. Participants with low emotional sensitivity showed greater oxytocin-induced improvement. These participants also showed larger task-related pupil dilation, suggesting that they also allocated the most attentional resources to the task. Overall, oxytocin treatment enhanced stimulus-induced pupil dilation, consistent with oxytocin enhancement of attention towards socially relevant stimuli. Since pupil dilation can be associated with increased attractiveness and approach behaviour, this effect could also represent a mechanism by which oxytocin increases human affiliation.

Hybridization with a twist: Hidden (hastatic) order in URu2Si2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flint, Rebecca

The hidden order developing below 17.5K in the heavy fermion material URu2Si2 has eluded identification for over thirty years. A number of recent experiments have shed new light on the nature of this phase. In particular, de Haas-van Alphen measurements indicate nearly perfectly Ising quasiparticles deep in the hidden order phase, and recent nonlinear susceptibility measurements show that this strong Ising anisotropy persists up to and above the hidden order transition itself. Along with other features, this Ising anisotropy implies that the conduction electrons hybridize with a local Ising moment - a 5f2 state of the uranium atom with integer spin. As the hybridization mixes states of integer and half-integer spin, it is itself a spinor and this ``hastatic'' (hasta: [Latin] spear) order parameter therefore breaks both time-reversal and double time-reversal symmetries. A microscopic theory of hastatic order naturally unites a number of disparate experimental results from the large entropy of condensation to the spin rotational symmetry breaking seen in torque magnetometry, and provides a number of experimental predictions. Moreover, this new spinorial order parameter provides a window into a number of new heavy fermion phases.

Evaluation of thermal conductivity of MgO-MWCNTs/EG hybrid nanofluids based on experimental data by selecting optimal artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vafaei, Masoud; Afrand, Masoud; Sina, Nima; Kalbasi, Rasool; Sourani, Forough; Teimouri, Hamid

2017-01-01

In this paper, the thermal conductivity ratio of MgO-MWCNTs/EG hybrid nanofluids has been predicted by an optimal artificial neural network at solid volume fractions of 0.05%, 0.1%, 0.15%, 0.2%, 0.4% and 0.6% in the temperature range of 25-50 °C. In this way, at the first, thirty six experimental data was presented to determine the thermal conductivity ratio of the hybrid nanofluid. Then, four optimal artificial neural networks with 6, 8, 10 and 12 neurons in hidden layer were designed to predict the thermal conductivity ratio of the nanofluid. The comparison between four optimal ANN results and experimental showed that the ANN with 12 neurons in hidden layer was the best model. Moreover, the results obtained from the best ANN indicated the maximum deviation margin of 0.8%.

Hidden Markov model-derived structural alphabet for proteins: the learning of protein local shapes captures sequence specificity.

PubMed

Camproux, A C; Tufféry, P

2005-08-05

Understanding and predicting protein structures depend on the complexity and the accuracy of the models used to represent them. We have recently set up a Hidden Markov Model to optimally compress protein three-dimensional conformations into a one-dimensional series of letters of a structural alphabet. Such a model learns simultaneously the shape of representative structural letters describing the local conformation and the logic of their connections, i.e. the transition matrix between the letters. Here, we move one step further and report some evidence that such a model of protein local architecture also captures some accurate amino acid features. All the letters have specific and distinct amino acid distributions. Moreover, we show that words of amino acids can have significant propensities for some letters. Perspectives point towards the prediction of the series of letters describing the structure of a protein from its amino acid sequence.

Artificial neural network based modelling approach for municipal solid waste gasification in a fluidized bed reactor.

PubMed

Pandey, Daya Shankar; Das, Saptarshi; Pan, Indranil; Leahy, James J; Kwapinski, Witold

2016-12-01

In this paper, multi-layer feed forward neural networks are used to predict the lower heating value of gas (LHV), lower heating value of gasification products including tars and entrained char (LHV p ) and syngas yield during gasification of municipal solid waste (MSW) during gasification in a fluidized bed reactor. These artificial neural networks (ANNs) with different architectures are trained using the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) back-propagation algorithm and a cross validation is also performed to ensure that the results generalise to other unseen datasets. A rigorous study is carried out on optimally choosing the number of hidden layers, number of neurons in the hidden layer and activation function in a network using multiple Monte Carlo runs. Nine input and three output parameters are used to train and test various neural network architectures in both multiple output and single output prediction paradigms using the available experimental datasets. The model selection procedure is carried out to ascertain the best network architecture in terms of predictive accuracy. The simulation results show that the ANN based methodology is a viable alternative which can be used to predict the performance of a fluidized bed gasifier. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relation Between the Rainfall and Soil Moisture During Different Phases of Indian Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varikoden, Hamza; Revadekar, J. V.

2018-03-01

Soil moisture is a key parameter in the prediction of southwest monsoon rainfall, hydrological modelling, and many other environmental studies. The studies on relationship between the soil moisture and rainfall in the Indian subcontinent are very limited; hence, the present study focuses the association between rainfall and soil moisture during different monsoon seasons. The soil moisture data used for this study are the ESA (European Space Agency) merged product derived from four passive and two active microwave sensors spanning over the period 1979-2013. The rainfall data used are India Meteorological Department gridded daily data. Both of these data sets are having a spatial resolution of 0.25° latitude-longitude grid. The study revealed that the soil moisture is higher during the southwest monsoon period similar to rainfall and during the pre-monsoon period, the soil moisture is lower. The annual cycle of both the soil moisture and rainfall has the similitude of monomodal variation with a peak during the month of August. The interannual variability of soil moisture and rainfall shows that they are linearly related with each other, even though they are not matched exactly for individual years. The study of extremes also exhibits the surplus amount of soil moisture during wet monsoon years and also the regions of surplus soil moisture are well coherent with the areas of high rainfall.

Inversion of Farmland Soil Moisture in Large Region Based on Modified Vegetation Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J. X.; Yu, B. S.; Zhang, G. Z.; Zhao, G. C.; He, S. D.; Luo, W. R.; Zhang, C. C.

2018-04-01

Soil moisture is an important parameter for agricultural production. Efficient and accurate monitoring of soil moisture is an important link to ensure the safety of agricultural production. Remote sensing technology has been widely used in agricultural moisture monitoring because of its timeliness, cyclicality, dynamic tracking of changes in things, easy access to data, and extensive monitoring. Vegetation index and surface temperature are important parameters for moisture monitoring. Based on NDVI, this paper introduces land surface temperature and average temperature for optimization. This article takes the soil moisture in winter wheat growing area in Henan Province as the research object, dividing Henan Province into three main regions producing winter wheat and dividing the growth period of winter wheat into the early, middle and late stages on the basis of phenological characteristics and regional characteristics. Introducing appropriate correction factor during the corresponding growth period of winter wheat, correcting the vegetation index in the corresponding area, this paper establishes regression models of soil moisture on NDVI and soil moisture on modified NDVI based on correlation analysis and compare models. It shows that modified NDVI is more suitable as a indicator of soil moisture because of the better correlation between soil moisture and modified NDVI and the higher prediction accuracy of the regression model of soil moisture on modified NDVI. The research in this paper has certain reference value for winter wheat farmland management and decision-making.

On the non-uniqueness of the hydro-geomorphic responses in a zero-order catchment with respect to soil moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jongho; Dwelle, M. Chase; Kampf, Stephanie K.; Fatichi, Simone; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.

2016-06-01

This study advances mechanistic interpretation of predictability challenges in hydro-geomorphology related to the role of soil moisture spatial variability. Using model formulations describing the physics of overland flow, variably saturated subsurface flow, and erosion and sediment transport, this study explores (1) why a basin with the same mean soil moisture can exhibit distinctly different spatial moisture distributions, (2) whether these varying distributions lead to non-unique hydro-geomorphic responses, and (3) what controls non-uniqueness in relation to the response type. Two sets of numerical experiments are carried out with two physically-based models, HYDRUS and tRIBS+VEGGIE+FEaST, and their outputs are analyzed with respect to pre-storm moisture state. The results demonstrate that distinct spatial moisture distributions for the same mean wetness arise because near-surface soil moisture dynamics exhibit different degrees of coupling with deeper-soil moisture and the process of subsurface drainage. The consequences of such variations are different depending on the type of hydrological response. Specifically, if the predominant runoff response is of infiltration excess type, the degree of non-uniqueness is related to the spatial distribution of near-surface moisture. If runoff is governed by subsurface stormflow, the extent of deep moisture contributing area and its "readiness to drain" determine the response characteristics. Because the processes of erosion and sediment transport superimpose additional controls over factors governing runoff generation and overland flow, non-uniqueness of the geomorphic response can be highly dampened or enhanced. The explanation is sediment composed by multi-size particles can alternate states of mobilization or surface shielding and the transient behavior is inherently intertwined with the availability of mobile particles. We conclude that complex nonlinear dynamics of hydro-geomorphic processes are inherent expressions of physical interactions. As complete knowledge of watershed properties, states, or forcings will always present the ultimate, if ever resolvable, challenge, deterministic predictability will remain handicapped. Coupling of uncertainty quantification methods and space-time physics-based approaches will need to evolve to facilitate mechanistic interpretations and informed practical applications.

Coupling rainfall observations and satellite soil moisture for predicting event soil loss in Central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todisco, Francesca; Brocca, Luca; Termite, Loris Francesco; Wagner, Wolfgang

2015-04-01

The accuracy of water soil loss prediction depends on the ability of the model to account for effects of the physical phenomena causing the output and the accuracy by which the parameters have been determined. The process based models require considerable effort to obtain appropriate parameter values and their failure to produce better results than achieved using the USLE/RUSLE model, encourages the use of the USLE/RUSLE model in roles of which it was not designed. In particular it is widely used in watershed models even at the event temporal scale. At hillslope scale, spatial variability in soil and vegetation result in spatial variations in soil moisture and consequently in runoff within the area for which soil loss estimation is required, so the modeling approach required to produce those estimates needs to be sensitive to those spatial variations in runoff. Some models include explicit consideration of runoff in determining the erosive stresses but this increases the uncertainty of the prediction due to the difficulty in parameterising the models also because the direct measures of surface runoff are rare. The same remarks are effective also for the USLE/RUSLE models including direct consideration of runoff in the erosivity factor (i.e. USLE-M by Kinnell and Risse, 1998, and USLE-MM by Bagarello et al., 2008). Moreover actually most of the rainfall-runoff models are based on the knowledge of the pre-event soil moisture that is a fundamental variable in the rainfall-runoff transformation. In addiction soil moisture is a readily available datum being possible to have easily direct pre-event measures of soil moisture using in situ sensors or satellite observations at larger spatial scale; it is also possible to derive the antecedent water content with soil moisture simulation models. The attempt made in the study is to use the pre-event soil moisture to account for the spatial variation in runoff within the area for which the soil loss estimates are required. More specifically the analysis was focused on the evaluation of the effectiveness of coupling modeled or satellite-derived soil moisture with USLE-derived models in predicting event unit soil loss at the plot scale in a silty-clay soil in Central Italy. To this end was used the database of the Masse experimental station developed considering for a given erosive event (an event yielding a measurable soil loss) the simultaneous measures of the total runoff amount, Qe (mm), and soil loss per unit area, Ae (Mg-ha-1) at plot scale and of the rainfall data required to derive the erosivity factor Re according to Wischmeiser and Smith (1978), with a MIT=6 h (Bagarello et al., 2013; Todisco et al., 2012). To the purpose of this investigation only data collected on the λ = 22 m long plots were considered: 63 erosive events in the period 2008-2013, 18 occurred during the dry period (from June to September) and the other 45 in the complementary period (wet period). The models tested are the USLE/RUSLE and some USLE-derived formulations in which the event erosivity factor, Re, is corrected by the antecedent soil moisture, θ, and powered to an exponent α > 0 (α =1: linear model; α ≠ 1: power model). Both soil moisture data the satellite retrieved (θ = θsat) and the estimates (θ = θest) of Soil Water Balance model (Brocca et al., 2011) were tested. The results have been compared with those obtained by the USLE/RUSLE, USLE-M and USLE-MM models coupled with a parsimonious rainfall-runoff model, MILc, (Brocca et al. 2011) for the prediction of runoff volume (that in these models is the term used to correct the erosivity factor Re). The results showed that: including direct consideration of antecedent soil moisture and runoff in the event rainfall-runoff factor of the RUSLE/USLE enhanced the capacity of the model to account for variations in event soil loss when soil moisture and runoff volume are measured or predicted reasonably well; the accuracy of the original USLE/RUSLE model was always the lowest; the accuracy in estimating the event soil loss of a models with erosivity factor that includes the estimated runoff is always overcome by at least one model that uses the antecedent soil moisture θ in the erosivity index; the power models generally, at Masse, work better than the linear. The more accurate models are that with the estimated antecedent soil moisture, θest, when all the database is used and with the satellite retrieved soil moisture, θsat, when only the wet periods' events are considered. In fact it was also verified that much of the inaccuracy of the tested models is due to summer rainfall events, probably because of the particular characteristics that the soil assumes in the dry period (superficial crusts causing higher runoff): in this cases, high soil losses are observed in association to low values of soil moisture, while the simulated runoff assume low values too, since they are based on the antecedent wetness conditions. Thus, the analyses were repeated excluding the summer events. As expected, the performance of all the models increases, but still the use of θ provides the best results. The results of the analysis open interesting scenarios in the use of USLE-derived models for the unit event soil loss estimation at large scale. In particular the use of the soil moisture to correct the rainfall erosivity factor acquires a great practical importance, since it is a relatively simple measurable data and moreover because remote sensing soil moisture data are widely available and useful in large-scale erosion assessment. Bagarello, V., Di Piazza, G. V., Ferro, V., Giordano, G., 2008. Predicting unit soil loss in Sicily, south Italy. Hydrol. Process. 22, 586-595. Bagarello, V., Ferro, V., Giordano, G., Mannocchi, F., Todisco, F., Vergni, L., 2013. Predicting event soil loss form bare plots at two Italian sites. Catena 109, 96-102. Brocca, L., Melone, F., Moramarco, T., 2011. Distributed rainfall-runoff modeling for flood frequency estimation and flood forecasting. Hydrol. Process. 25, 2801-2813. Kinnell, P. I. A., Risse, L. M., 1998. USLE-M: empirical modeling rainfall erosion through runoff and sediment concentration. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 62, 1667-1672. Todisco, F., Vergni, L., Mannocchi, F., Bomba, C., 2012. Calibration of the soil loss measurement at the Masse experimental station. Catena 91, 4-9. Wischmeier, W. H., Smith, D. D., 1978. Predicting rainfall-erosion losses - A guide to conservation planning. Agriculture Handbook 537, United Stated Department of Agriculture.

Climate Prediction Center global monthly soil moisture data set at 0.5° resolution for 1948 to present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Yun; van den Dool, Huug

2004-05-01

We have produced a 0.5° × 0.5° monthly global soil moisture data set for the period from 1948 to the present. The land model is a one-layer "bucket" water balance model, while the driving input fields are Climate Prediction Center monthly global precipitation over land, which uses over 17,000 gauges worldwide, and monthly global temperature from global Reanalysis. The output consists of global monthly soil moisture, evaporation, and runoff, starting from January 1948. A distinguishing feature of this data set is that all fields are updated monthly, which greatly enhances utility for near-real-time purposes. Data validation shows that the land model does well; both the simulated annual cycle and interannual variability of soil moisture are reasonably good against the limited observations in different regions. A data analysis reveals that, on average, the land surface water balance components have a stronger annual cycle in the Southern Hemisphere than those in the Northern Hemisphere. From the point of view of soil moisture, climates can be characterized into two types, monsoonal and midlatitude climates, with the monsoonal ones covering most of the low-latitude land areas and showing a more prominent annual variation. A global soil moisture empirical orthogonal function analysis and time series of hemisphere means reveal some interesting patterns (like El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and long-term trends in both regional and global scales.

Predicted harvest time effects on switchgrass moisture content, nutrient concentration, yield, and profitability

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Production costs change with harvest date of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) as a result of nutrient recycling and changes in yield of this perennial crop. This study examines the range of cost of production from an early, yield-maximizing harvest date to a late winter harvest date at low moisture...

Climate Prediction Center - Week 3-4 Outlook

Science.gov Websites

extends from northeast Florida through North Carolina, based on the likelihood for much above-normal soil is forecast. In contrast, soil moisture deficits are anticipated at the start of the period over the anticipated below-normal soil moisture conditions at the start of the Week 3-4 period. Dynamical model

Vegetation water content of crops and woodlands for improving soil moisture retrievals from Coriolis WindSat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Estimation of vegetation water content (VWC) by shortwave infrared remote sensing improves soil moisture retrievals. The largest unknown for predicting VWC is stem water content; for woodlands, stem water content is expected to be proportional to stem height. Airborne imagery were acquired and photo...

Measurement of moisture, soluble solids, and sucrose content and mechanical properties in sugar beet using portable visible and near-infrared spectroscopy

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Visible and near-infrared spectroscopy, coupled with partial least squares regression, was used to predict the moisture, soluble solids and sucrose content and mechanical properties of sugar beet. Interactance spectra were acquired from both intact and sliced beets, using two portable spectrometers ...

Vegetation water content of crops and woodlands for improving soil moisture retrievals from Coriolis WindSat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Estimation of vegetation water content (VWC) by shortwave infrared remote sensing improves soil moisture retrievals. The largest unknown for predicting VWC is stem water content, which is assumed to be allometrically related to canopy water content. From forest science, stem volume is linearly relat...

Assessing predictability of a hydrological stochastic-dynamical system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelfan, Alexander

2014-05-01

The water cycle includes the processes with different memory that creates potential for predictability of hydrological system based on separating its long and short memory components and conditioning long-term prediction on slower evolving components (similar to approaches in climate prediction). In the face of the Panta Rhei IAHS Decade questions, it is important to find a conceptual approach to classify hydrological system components with respect to their predictability, define predictable/unpredictable patterns, extend lead-time and improve reliability of hydrological predictions based on the predictable patterns. Representation of hydrological systems as the dynamical systems subjected to the effect of noise (stochastic-dynamical systems) provides possible tool for such conceptualization. A method has been proposed for assessing predictability of hydrological system caused by its sensitivity to both initial and boundary conditions. The predictability is defined through a procedure of convergence of pre-assigned probabilistic measure (e.g. variance) of the system state to stable value. The time interval of the convergence, that is the time interval during which the system losses memory about its initial state, defines limit of the system predictability. The proposed method was applied to assess predictability of soil moisture dynamics in the Nizhnedevitskaya experimental station (51.516N; 38.383E) located in the agricultural zone of the central European Russia. A stochastic-dynamical model combining a deterministic one-dimensional model of hydrothermal regime of soil with a stochastic model of meteorological inputs was developed. The deterministic model describes processes of coupled heat and moisture transfer through unfrozen/frozen soil and accounts for the influence of phase changes on water flow. The stochastic model produces time series of daily meteorological variables (precipitation, air temperature and humidity), whose statistical properties are similar to those of the corresponding series of the actual data measured at the station. Beginning from the initial conditions and being forced by Monte-Carlo generated synthetic meteorological series, the model simulated diverging trajectories of soil moisture characteristics (water content of soil column, moisture of different soil layers, etc.). Limit of predictability of the specific characteristic was determined through time of stabilization of variance of the characteristic between the trajectories, as they move away from the initial state. Numerical experiments were carried out with the stochastic-dynamical model to analyze sensitivity of the soil moisture predictability assessments to uncertainty in the initial conditions, to determine effects of the soil hydraulic properties and processes of soil freezing on the predictability. It was found, particularly, that soil water content predictability is sensitive to errors in the initial conditions and strongly depends on the hydraulic properties of soil under both unfrozen and frozen conditions. Even if the initial conditions are "well-established", the assessed predictability of water content of unfrozen soil does not exceed 30-40 days, while for frozen conditions it may be as long as 3-4 months. The latter creates opportunity for utilizing the autumn water content of soil as the predictor for spring snowmelt runoff in the region under consideration.

Impact of realistic soil moisture initialization on the representation of extreme events in the western Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helgert, Sebastian; Khodayar, Samiro

2017-04-01

In a warmer Mediterranean climate an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events like floods, droughts and extreme heat is expected. The ability to predict such events is still a great challenge and exhibits many uncertainties in the weather forecast and climate predictions. Thereby the missing knowledge about soil moisture-atmosphere interactions and their representation in models is identified as one of the main sources of uncertainty. In this context the soil moisture(SM) plays an important role in the partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes on the surface and consequently influences the boundary-layer stability and the precipitation formation. The aim of this research work is to assess the influence of soil moisture-atmosphere interactions on the initiation and development of extreme events in the western Mediterranean (WMED). In this respect the impact of realistic SM initialization on the model representation of extreme events is investigated. High-resolution simulations of different regions in the WMED, including various climate zones from moderate to arid climate, are conducted with the atmospheric COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling) model in the numerical weather prediction and climate mode. A multiscale temporal and spatial approach is used (days to years, 7km to 2.8km grid spacing). Observational data provided by the framework of the HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment (HyMeX) as well as satellite data such as precipitation from CMORPH (CPC MORPHing technique), evapotranspiration from Land Surface Analysis Satellite Applications Facility (LSA-SAF) and atmospheric moisture from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) are used for process understanding and model validation. To select extreme dry and wet periods the Effective Drought Index (EDI) is calculated. In these periods sensitivity studies of extreme SM initialization scenarios are performed to prove a possible impact of soil moisture on precipitation in the WMED. For the realistic SM initialization different state-of-art high-resolution SM products (25km up to 1km grid spacing) of the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity mission (SMOS) are examined. A CDF-matching method is applied to reduce the bias between model and SMOS-satellite observation. Moreover, techniques to estimate the initial soil moisture profile from satellite data are tested.

Looking inside out: tracing internal moisture and salinity changes in dunes on the west coast of Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nash, Ciaran; Bourke, Mary

2017-04-01

Coastal sand dune systems are some of the most physically dynamic landscapes; their susceptibility to geomorphic change is rooted in a host of interconnected processes and feedbacks. Soil moisture and salinity are two fundamental environmental variables capable of exerting a geomorphic influence but have not been thoroughly investigated in coastal dunes. In northwest Europe, coastal dunes are predominantly sediment-limited systems with reduced capacities to avoid severe morphological changes arising from storms. Climatic changes over the next century are predicted to manifest in more frequent and intense storms with the potential to enact severe geomorphic change in coastal settings. A lack of data pertaining to internal dune hydrosaline dynamics suggests we are missing part of the bigger picture. We conducted a pilot study of moisture and salinity dynamics within the upper 50 cm of the vadose zone in a vegetated dune system at Golden Strand, Achill Island on the west coast of Ireland. Golden Strand is a roughly 800 m long embayed sandy beach, backed by vegetated dunes that protect a low-lying machair grassland. A study transect was established across this dune-machair system, perpendicular to the shore. Innovative instrumentation in the form of capacitance probes and internal dune thermochrons were deployed to sample at 10 cm depth intervals at a sampling rate of 10 minutes and coupled with on-site rainfall data. Results indicate that dune moisture tracks rainfall inputs up to 30 cm depth. Antecedent moisture at depth was found to influence infiltration of water through the dune profile. Salinity within the study transect decreased with distance from the beach, suggesting that salt spray is the primary salt delivery mechanism in the dune system. We also noted that moisture and salinity below 30 cm depth failed to respond to rainfall events of varying intensities. Relatively constant moisture and salinity were observed at all depths within the machair. Predictions of climatic change for Ireland suggest more intense short-period precipitation events, this may increase infiltration depth. Baseline data collected will prove informative in predicting the response of Irish coastal dunes via changes in vegetation and dune stability.

Prediction of hearing loss among the noise-exposed workers in a steel factory using artificial intelligence approach.

PubMed

Aliabadi, Mohsen; Farhadian, Maryam; Darvishi, Ebrahim

2015-08-01

Prediction of hearing loss in noisy workplaces is considered to be an important aspect of hearing conservation program. Artificial intelligence, as a new approach, can be used to predict the complex phenomenon such as hearing loss. Using artificial neural networks, this study aims to present an empirical model for the prediction of the hearing loss threshold among noise-exposed workers. Two hundred and ten workers employed in a steel factory were chosen, and their occupational exposure histories were collected. To determine the hearing loss threshold, the audiometric test was carried out using a calibrated audiometer. The personal noise exposure was also measured using a noise dosimeter in the workstations of workers. Finally, data obtained five variables, which can influence the hearing loss, were used for the development of the prediction model. Multilayer feed-forward neural networks with different structures were developed using MATLAB software. Neural network structures had one hidden layer with the number of neurons being approximately between 5 and 15 neurons. The best developed neural networks with one hidden layer and ten neurons could accurately predict the hearing loss threshold with RMSE = 2.6 dB and R(2) = 0.89. The results also confirmed that neural networks could provide more accurate predictions than multiple regressions. Since occupational hearing loss is frequently non-curable, results of accurate prediction can be used by occupational health experts to modify and improve noise exposure conditions.

Prediction of moisture and temperature changes in composites during atmospheric exposure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tompkins, S. S.; Tenney, D. R.; Unnan, J.

1978-01-01

The effects of variations in diffusion coefficients, surface properties of the composite, panel tilt, ground reflection, and geographical location on the moisture concentration profiles and average moisture content of composite laminates were studied analytically. A heat balance which included heat input due to direct and sky diffuse solar radiation, ground reflection, and heat loss due to reradiation and convection was used to determine the temperature of composites during atmospheric exposure. The equilibrium moisture content was assumed proportional to the relative humidity of the air in the boundary layer of the composite. Condensation on the surface was neglected. Histograms of composite temperatures were determined and compared with those for the ambient environment.

Modeling heat and moisture transport in firefighter protective clothing during flash fire exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitrphiromsri, Patirop; Kuznetsov, Andrey V.

2005-01-01

In this paper, a model of heat and moisture transport in firefighter protective clothing during a flash fire exposure is presented. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of coupled heat and moisture transport on the protective performance of the garment. Computational results show the distribution of temperature and moisture content in the fabric during the exposure to the flash fire as well as during the cool-down period. Moreover, the duration of the exposure during which the garment protects the firefighter from getting second and third degree burns from the flash fire exposure is numerically predicted. A complete model for the fire-fabric-air gap-skin system is presented.

A multi-objective framework to predict flows of ungauged rivers within regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alipour, M.; Kibler, K. M.

2017-12-01

Despite advances in flow prediction, managers of ungauged rivers located within broad regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation still lack prescriptive methods robust to the data challenges of such regions. We propose a multi-objective streamflow prediction framework for regions of minimum observation to select models that balance runoff efficiency with choice of accurate parameter values. We supplement sparse observed data with uncertain or low-resolution information incorporated as `soft' a priori parameter estimates. The performance of the proposed framework is tested against traditional single-objective and constrained single-objective calibrations in two catchments in a remote area of southwestern China. We find that the multi-objective approach performs well with respect to runoff efficiency in both catchments (NSE = 0.74 and 0.72), within the range of efficiencies returned by other models (NSE = 0.67 - 0.78). However, soil moisture capacity estimated by the multi-objective model resonates with a priori estimates (parameter residuals of 61 cm versus 289 and 518 cm for maximum soil moisture capacity in one catchment, and 20 cm versus 246 and 475 cm in the other; parameter residuals of 0.48 versus 0.65 and 0.7 for soil moisture distribution shape factor in one catchment, and 0.91 versus 0.79 and 1.24 in the other). Thus, optimization to a multi-criteria objective function led to very different representations of soil moisture capacity as compared to models selected by single-objective calibration, without compromising runoff efficiency. These different soil moisture representations may translate into considerably different hydrological behaviors. The proposed approach thus offers a preliminary step towards greater process understanding in regions of severe data limitations. For instance, the multi-objective framework may be an adept tool to discern between models of similar efficiency to select models that provide the "right answers for the right reasons". Managers may feel more confident to utilize such models to predict flows in fully ungauged areas.

Prediction of Gross Primary Production during the Drought and Normal Years over the US Using Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halubok, M.; Yang, Z. L.

2016-12-01

This study investigates how gross primary production (GPP) estimates can be improved with the use of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and presents an effort to produce GPP predictions based on the interdependence between SIF, precipitation, soil moisture and GPP using Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Soil Moisture (ESA CCI SM) datasets and FLUXNET observations. We found that considering the relationships between SIF, precipitation and soil moisture, isolating SIF-GPP relationships for different plant functional types (PFTs), and using precipitation and soil moisture conditions pertinent to the continental US provides the most accurate GPP estimates over the Great Plains and Texas. We found that there exists a lag between a precipitation event and corresponding fluorescence levels, ranging from about 2 weeks for grasses to a month for crops. Using these lead-lag relationships, we estimate GPP using SIF, precipitation and soil moisture data for two different PFTs (C3 non-arctic grass and crop) over the US applying the multiple linear regression technique. GPP values estimated from our lead-lag based SIF show the closest possible match with the observational data from the FLUXNET stations. During the drought 2011 year over Texas, our GPP values show a decrease by 100 gC/m2/month as compared to the reference year of 2007. In 2012 (drought year over the Great Plains), we observe significant decrease in GPP, especially in the area of high production (>500 gC/m2/month) that is reduced in July and August 2012. Hence, estimating GPP using specific SIF-GPP relationships, considering the differences in biomes and their interactions with precipitation and soil moisture pertinent to a certain region can detect the drought trends and produce reasonable GPP estimates. Thus, this simple and computationally efficient method based on derived linear equations can be used to obtain GPP predictions.

Strategies for multivariate modeling of moisture content in freeze-dried mannitol-containing products by near-infrared spectroscopy.

PubMed

Yip, Wai Lam; Gausemel, Ingvil; Sande, Sverre Arne; Dyrstad, Knut

2012-11-01

Accurate determination of residual moisture content of a freeze-dried (FD) pharmaceutical product is critical for prediction of its quality. Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy is a fast and non-invasive method routinely used for quantification of moisture. However, several physicochemical properties of the FD product may interfere with absorption bands related to the water content. A commonly used stabilizer and bulking agent in FD known for variation in physicochemical properties, is mannitol. To minimize this physicochemical interference, different approaches for multivariate correlation between NIR spectra of a FD product containing mannitol and the corresponding moisture content measured by Karl Fischer (KF) titration have been investigated. A novel method, MIPCR (Main and Interactions of Individual Principal Components Regression), was found to have significantly increased predictive ability of moisture content compared to a traditional PLS approach. The philosophy behind the MIPCR is that the interference from a variety of particle and morphology attributes has interactive effects on the water related absorption bands. The transformation of original wavelength variables to orthogonal scores gives a new set of variables (scores) without covariance structure, and the possibility of inclusion of interaction terms in the further modeling. The residual moisture content of the FD product investigated is in the range from 0.7% to 2.6%. The mean errors of cross validated prediction of models developed in the investigated NIR regions were reduced from a range of 24.1-27.6% for traditional PLS method to 15.7-20.5% for the MIPCR method. Improved model quality by application of MIPCR, without the need for inclusion of a large number of calibration samples, might increase the use of NIR in early phase product development, where availability of calibration samples is often limited. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mode Decomposition Methods for Soil Moisture Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jana, R. B.; Efendiev, Y. R.; Mohanty, B.

2014-12-01

Lack of reliable, well-distributed, long-term datasets for model validation is a bottle-neck for most exercises in soil moisture analysis and prediction. Understanding what factors drive soil hydrological processes at different scales and their variability is very critical to further our ability to model the various components of the hydrologic cycle more accurately. For this, a comprehensive dataset with measurements across scales is very necessary. Intensive fine-resolution sampling of soil moisture over extended periods of time is financially and logistically prohibitive. Installation of a few long term monitoring stations is also expensive, and needs to be situated at critical locations. The concept of Time Stable Locations has been in use for some time now to find locations that reflect the mean values for the soil moisture across the watershed under all wetness conditions. However, the soil moisture variability across the watershed is lost when measuring at only time stable locations. We present here a study using techniques such as Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) and Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method (DEIM) that extends the concept of time stable locations to arrive at locations that provide not simply the average soil moisture values for the watershed, but also those that can help re-capture the dynamics across all locations in the watershed. As with the time stability, the initial analysis is dependent on an intensive sampling history. The DMD/DEIM method is an application of model reduction techniques for non-linearly related measurements. Using this technique, we are able to determine the number of sampling points that would be required for a given accuracy of prediction across the watershed, and the location of those points. Locations with higher energetics in the basis domain are chosen first. We present case studies across watersheds in the US and India. The technique can be applied to other hydro-climates easily.

Impact of Soil Moisture Assimilation on Land Surface Model Spin-Up and Coupled LandAtmosphere Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Lawston, P.

2016-01-01

Advances in satellite monitoring of the terrestrial water cycle have led to a concerted effort to assimilate soil moisture observations from various platforms into offline land surface models (LSMs). One principal but still open question is that of the ability of land data assimilation (LDA) to improve LSM initial conditions for coupled short-term weather prediction. In this study, the impact of assimilating Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) soil moisture retrievals on coupled WRF Model forecasts is examined during the summers of dry (2006) and wet (2007) surface conditions in the southern Great Plains. LDA is carried out using NASAs Land Information System (LIS) and the Noah LSM through an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach. The impacts of LDA on the 1) soil moisture and soil temperature initial conditions for WRF, 2) land-atmosphere coupling characteristics, and 3) ambient weather of the coupled LIS-WRF simulations are then assessed. Results show that impacts of soil moisture LDA during the spin-up can significantly modify LSM states and fluxes, depending on regime and season. Results also indicate that the use of seasonal cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) is more advantageous compared to the traditional annual CDF bias correction strategies. LDA performs consistently regardless of atmospheric forcing applied, with greater improvements seen when using coarser, global forcing products. Downstream impacts on coupled simulations vary according to the strength of the LDA impact at the initialization, where significant modifications to the soil moisture flux- PBL-ambient weather process chain are observed. Overall, this study demonstrates potential for future, higher-resolution soil moisture assimilation applications in weather and climate research.

Vegetation-induced turbulence influencing evapotranspiration-soil moisture coupling: Implications for semiarid regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haghighi, E.; Kirchner, J. W.; Entekhabi, D.

2016-12-01

The relationship between soil moisture and evapotranspiration (ET) fluxes is an important component of land-atmosphere interactions controlling hydrology-climate feedback processes. Important as this relationship is, it remains empirical and physical mechanisms governing its dynamics are insufficiently studied. This is particularly of importance for semiarid regions (currently comprising about half of the Earth's land surface) where the shallow surface soil layer is the primary source of ET and direct evaporation from bare soil is likely a large component of the total flux. Hence, ET-soil moisture coupling in these regions is hypothesized to be strongly influenced by soil evaporation and associated mechanisms. Motivated by recent progress in mechanistic modeling of localized heat and mass exchange rates from bare soil surfaces covered by cylindrical bluff-body elements, we developed a physically based ET model explicitly incorporating coupled impacts of soil moisture and vegetation-induced turbulence in the near-surface region. Model predictions of ET and its partitioning were in good agreement with measured data and suggest that the strength and nature of ET-soil moisture interactions in sparsely vegetated areas are strongly influenced by aerodynamic (rather than radiative) forcing namely wind speed and near-surface turbulence generation as a function of vegetation type and cover fraction. The results demonstrated that the relationship between ET and soil moisture varies from a nonlinear function (the dual regime behavior) to a single moisture-limited regime (linear relationship) by increasing wind velocity and enhancing turbulence generation in the near-surface region (small-scale woody vegetation species of low cover fraction). Potential benefits of this study for improving accuracy and predictive capabilities of remote sensing techniques when applied to semiarid environments will also be discussed.

Analytical prediction of moisture absorption/desorption in resin matrix composites exposed to aircraft environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unnam, J.; Tenney, D. R.

1977-01-01

The moisture absorption/desorption behavior of resin matrix composites was mathematically modeled by classical diffusion theory using an effective diffusion coefficient. Good agreement was found between calculated moisture content and published data for T300/5208 graphite fiber reinforced epoxy matrix composite. Weather Bureau data for Langley Air Force Base and Norfolk, Va., were used to calculate the amount of moisture a T300/5208 composite panel would contain if exposed outdoors. Results obtained by using average monthly weather data for several high aircraft usage locations around the world suggest that, except for desert areas, geographical locations should have only minimal effect on the moisture absorption level reached in composites. Solar radiation data together with cloud and wind information were included in the analysis to estimate an effective temperature of the composite panel during ground exposure.

The potential of remotely sensed soil moisture for operational flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, N.; Karssenberg, D.; de Roo, A.; de Jong, S.; Bierkens, M. F.

2013-12-01

Nowadays, remotely sensed soil moisture is readily available from multiple space born sensors. The high temporal resolution and global coverage make these products very suitable for large-scale land-surface applications. The potential to use these products in operational flood forecasting has thus far not been extensively studied. In this study, we evaluate the added value of assimilated remotely sensed soil moisture for the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and its potential to improve the timing and height of the flood peak and low flows. EFAS is used for operational flood forecasting in Europe and uses a distributed hydrological model for flood predictions for lead times up to 10 days. Satellite-derived soil moisture from ASCAT, AMSR-E and SMOS is assimilated into the EFAS system for the Upper Danube basin and results are compared to assimilation of only discharge observations. Discharge observations are available at the outlet and at six additional locations throughout the catchment. To assimilate soil moisture data into EFAS, an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used. Information on the spatial (cross-) correlation of the errors in the satellite products, derived from a detailed model-satellite soil moisture comparison study, is included to ensure optimal performance of the EnKF. For the validation, additional discharge observations not used in the EnKF are used as an independent validation dataset. Our results show that the accuracy of flood forecasts is increased when more discharge observations are used in that the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the ensemble mean is reduced by 65%. The additional inclusion of satellite data results in a further increase of the performance: forecasts of base flows are better and the uncertainty in the overall discharge is reduced, shown by a 10% reduction in the MAE. In addition, floods are predicted with a higher accuracy and the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) shows a performance increase of 10-15% on average, compared to assimilation of discharge only. The rank histograms show that the forecast is not biased. The timing errors in the flood predictions are decreased when soil moisture data is used and imminent floods can be forecasted with skill one day earlier. In conclusion, our study shows that assimilation of satellite soil moisture increases the performance of flood forecasting systems for large catchments, like the Upper Danube. The additional gain is highest when discharge observations from both upstream and downstream areas are used in combination with the soil moisture data. These results show the potential of future soil moisture missions with a higher spatial resolution like SMAP to improve near-real time flood forecasting in large catchments.

Prediction Study on Anti-Slide Control of Railway Vehicle Based on RBF Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Lijun; Zhang, Jimin

While railway vehicle braking, Anti-slide control system will detect operating status of each wheel-sets e.g. speed difference and deceleration etc. Once the detected value on some wheel-set is over pre-defined threshold, brake effort on such wheel-set will be adjusted automatically to avoid blocking. Such method takes effect on guarantee safety operation of vehicle and avoid wheel-set flatness, however it cannot adapt itself to the rail adhesion variation. While wheel-sets slide, the operating status is chaotic time series with certain law, and can be predicted with the law and experiment data in certain time. The predicted values can be used as the input reference signals of vehicle anti-slide control system, to judge and control the slide status of wheel-sets. In this article, the RBF neural networks is taken to predict wheel-set slide status in multi-step with weight vector adjusted based on online self-adaptive algorithm, and the center & normalizing parameters of active function of the hidden unit of RBF neural networks' hidden layer computed with K-means clustering algorithm. With multi-step prediction simulation, the predicted signal with appropriate precision can be used by anti-slide system to trace actively and adjust wheel-set slide tendency, so as to adapt to wheel-rail adhesion variation and reduce the risk of wheel-set blocking.

Spatial Variability of Soil-Water Storage in the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory: Measurement and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oroza, C.; Bales, R. C.; Zheng, Z.; Glaser, S. D.

2017-12-01

Predicting the spatial distribution of soil moisture in mountain environments is confounded by multiple factors, including complex topography, spatial variably of soil texture, sub-surface flow paths, and snow-soil interactions. While remote-sensing tools such as passive-microwave monitoring can measure spatial variability of soil moisture, they only capture near-surface soil layers. Large-scale sensor networks are increasingly providing soil-moisture measurements at high temporal resolution across a broader range of depths than are accessible from remote sensing. It may be possible to combine these in-situ measurements with high-resolution LIDAR topography and canopy cover to estimate the spatial distribution of soil moisture at high spatial resolution at multiple depths. We study the feasibility of this approach using six years (2009-2014) of daily volumetric water content measurements at 10-, 30-, and 60-cm depths from the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory. A non-parametric, multivariate regression algorithm, Random Forest, was used to predict the spatial distribution of depth-integrated soil-water storage, based on the in-situ measurements and a combination of node attributes (topographic wetness, northness, elevation, soil texture, and location with respect to canopy cover). We observe predictable patterns of predictor accuracy and independent variable ranking during the six-year study period. Predictor accuracy is highest during the snow-cover and early recession periods but declines during the dry period. Soil texture has consistently high feature importance. Other landscape attributes exhibit seasonal trends: northness peaks during the wet-up period, and elevation and topographic-wetness index peak during the recession and dry period, respectively.

Observed impacts of duration and seasonality of atmospheric-river landfalls on soil moisture and runoff in coastal northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ralph, F.M.; Coleman, T.; Neiman, P.J.; Zamora, R.J.; Dettinger, Mike

2013-01-01

This study is motivated by diverse needs for better forecasts of extreme precipitation and floods. It is enabled by unique hourly observations collected over six years near California’s Russian River and by recent advances in the science of atmospheric rivers (ARs). This study fills key gaps limiting the prediction of ARs and, especially, their impacts by quantifying the duration of AR conditions and the role of duration in modulating hydrometeorological impacts. Precursor soil moisture conditions and their relationship to streamflow are also shown. On the basis of 91 well-observed events during 2004-10, the study shows that the passage of ARs over a coastal site lasted 20 h on average and that 12% of the AR events exceeded 30 h. Differences in storm-total water vapor transport directed up the mountain slope contribute 74% of the variance in storm-total rainfall across the events and 61% of the variance in storm-total runoff volume. ARs with double the composite mean duration produced nearly 6 times greater peak streamflow and more than 7 times the storm-total runoff volume. When precursor soil moisture was less than 20%, even heavy rainfall did not lead to significant streamflow. Predicting which AR events are likely to produce extreme impacts on precipitation and runoff requires accurate prediction of AR duration at landfall and observations of precursor soil moisture conditions.

Assessment of Multi-frequency Electromagnetic Induction for Determining Soil Moisture Patterns at the Hillslope Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tromp-van Meerveld, I.; McDonnell, J.

2009-05-01

We present an assessment of electromagnetic induction (EM) as a potential rapid and non-invasive method to map soil moisture patterns at the Panola (GA, USA) hillslope. We address the following questions regarding the applicability of EM measurements for hillslope hydrological investigations: (1) Can EM be used for soil moisture measurements in areas with shallow soils?; (2) Can EM represent the temporal and spatial patterns of soil moisture throughout the year?; and (3) can multiple frequencies be used to extract additional information content from the EM approach and explain the depth profile of soil moisture? We found that the apparent conductivity measured with the multi-frequency GEM-300 was linearly related to soil moisture measured with an Aqua-pro capacitance sensor below a threshold conductivity and represented the temporal patterns in soil moisture well. During spring rainfall events that wetted only the surface soil layers the apparent conductivity measurements explained the soil moisture dynamics at depth better than the surface soil moisture dynamics. All four EM frequencies (7290, 9090, 11250, and 14010 Hz) were highly correlated and linearly related to each other and could be used to predict soil moisture. This limited our ability to use the four different EM frequencies to obtain a soil moisture profile with depth. The apparent conductivity patterns represented the observed spatial soil moisture patterns well when the individually fitted relationships between measured soil moisture and apparent conductivity were used for each measurement point. However, when the same (master) relationship was used for all measurement locations, the soil moisture patterns were smoothed and did not resemble the observed soil moisture patterns very well. In addition, the range in calculated soil moisture values was reduced compared to observed soil moisture. Part of the smoothing was likely due to the much larger measurement area of the GEM-300 compared to the Aqua-pro soil moisture measurements.

A Comparison of Methods for a Priori Bias Correction in Soil Moisture Data Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Sujay V.; Reichle, Rolf H.; Harrison, Kenneth W.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Yatheendradas, Soni; Santanello, Joseph A.

2011-01-01

Data assimilation is being increasingly used to merge remotely sensed land surface variables such as soil moisture, snow and skin temperature with estimates from land models. Its success, however, depends on unbiased model predictions and unbiased observations. Here, a suite of continental-scale, synthetic soil moisture assimilation experiments is used to compare two approaches that address typical biases in soil moisture prior to data assimilation: (i) parameter estimation to calibrate the land model to the climatology of the soil moisture observations, and (ii) scaling of the observations to the model s soil moisture climatology. To enable this research, an optimization infrastructure was added to the NASA Land Information System (LIS) that includes gradient-based optimization methods and global, heuristic search algorithms. The land model calibration eliminates the bias but does not necessarily result in more realistic model parameters. Nevertheless, the experiments confirm that model calibration yields assimilation estimates of surface and root zone soil moisture that are as skillful as those obtained through scaling of the observations to the model s climatology. Analysis of innovation diagnostics underlines the importance of addressing bias in soil moisture assimilation and confirms that both approaches adequately address the issue.

A simple nudging scheme to assimilate ASCAT soil moisture data in the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capecchi, V.; Gozzini, B.

2012-04-01

The present work shows results obtained in a numerical experiment using the WRF (Weather and Research Forecasting, www.wrf-model.org) model. A control run where soil moisture is constrained by GFS global analysis is compared with a test run where soil moisture analysis is obtained via a simple nudging scheme using ASCAT data. The basic idea of the assimilation scheme is to "nudge" the first level (0-10 cm below ground in NOAH model) of volumetric soil moisture of the first-guess (say θ(b,1) derived from global model) towards the ASCAT derived value (say ^θ A). The soil moisture analysis θ(a,1) is given by: { θ + K (^θA - θ ) l = 1 θ(a,1) = θ(b,l) (b,l) l > 1 (b,l) (1) where l is the model soil level. K is a constant scalar value that is user specified and in this study it is equal to 0.2 (same value as in similar studies). Soil moisture is critical for estimating latent and sensible heat fluxes as well as boundary layer structure. This parameter is, however, poorly assimilated in current global and regional numerical models since no extensive soil moisture observation network exists. Remote sensing technologies offer a synoptic view of the dynamics and spatial distribution of soil moisture with a frequent temporal coverage and with a horizontal resolution similar to mesoscale NWP model. Several studies have shown that measurements of normalized backscatter (surface soil wetness) from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) operating at microwave frequencies and boarded on the meteorological operational (Metop) satellite, offer quality information about surface soil moisture. Recently several studies deal with the implementation of simple assimilation procedures (nudging, Extended Kalman Filter, etc...) to integrate ASCAT data in NWP models. They found improvements in screen temperature predictions, particularly in areas such as North-America and in the Tropics, where it is strong the land-atmosphere coupling. The ECMWF (Newsletter No. 127) is currently implementing and testing an EKF for combining conventional observations and remote sensed soil moisture data in order to produce a more accurate analysis. In the present work verification skills (RMSE, BIAS, correlation) of both control and test run are presented using observed data collected by International Soil Moisture Network. Moreover improvements in temperature predictions are evaluated.

Predicting Regional Drought on Sub-Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Suarez, Max; Koster, Randal

2011-01-01

Drought occurs on a wide range of time scales, and within a variety of different types of regional climates. It is driven foremost by an extended period of reduced precipitation, but it is the impacts on such quantities as soil moisture, streamflow and crop yields that are often most important from a users perspective. While recognizing that different users have different needs for drought information, it is nevertheless important to understand that progress in predicting drought and satisfying such user needs, largely hinges on our ability to improve predictions of precipitation. This talk reviews our current understanding of the physical mechanisms that drive precipitation variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales, and the implications for predictability and prediction skill. Examples are given highlighting the phenomena and mechanisms controlling precipitation on monthly (e.g., stationary Rossby waves, soil moisture), seasonal (ENSO) and decadal time scales (PD and AMO).

Data Assimilation of SMAP Observations and the Impact on Weather Forecasts and Heat Stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan; Blankenship, Clay; Crosson, William; White, Khristopher

2014-01-01

SPoRT produces real-time LIS soil moisture products for situational awareness and local numerical weather prediction over CONUS, Mesoamerica, and East Africa ?Currently interact/collaborate with operational partners on evaluation of soil moisture products ?Drought/fire ?Extreme heat ?Convective initiation ?Flood and water borne diseases ?Initial efforts to assimilate L2 soil moisture observations from SMOS (as a precursor for SMAP) have been successful ?Active/passive blended product from SMAP will be assimilated similarly and higher spatial resolution should improve on local-scale processes

Benchmarking NLDAS-2 Soil Moisture and Evapotranspiration to Separate Uncertainty Contributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nearing, Grey S.; Mocko, David M.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Xia, Youlong

2016-01-01

Model benchmarking allows us to separate uncertainty in model predictions caused 1 by model inputs from uncertainty due to model structural error. We extend this method with a large-sample approach (using data from multiple field sites) to measure prediction uncertainty caused by errors in (i) forcing data, (ii) model parameters, and (iii) model structure, and use it to compare the efficiency of soil moisture state and evapotranspiration flux predictions made by the four land surface models in the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2). Parameters dominated uncertainty in soil moisture estimates and forcing data dominated uncertainty in evapotranspiration estimates; however, the models themselves used only a fraction of the information available to them. This means that there is significant potential to improve all three components of the NLDAS-2 system. In particular, continued work toward refining the parameter maps and look-up tables, the forcing data measurement and processing, and also the land surface models themselves, has potential to result in improved estimates of surface mass and energy balances.

Benchmarking NLDAS-2 Soil Moisture and Evapotranspiration to Separate Uncertainty Contributions

PubMed Central

Nearing, Grey S.; Mocko, David M.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Xia, Youlong

2018-01-01

Model benchmarking allows us to separate uncertainty in model predictions caused by model inputs from uncertainty due to model structural error. We extend this method with a “large-sample” approach (using data from multiple field sites) to measure prediction uncertainty caused by errors in (i) forcing data, (ii) model parameters, and (iii) model structure, and use it to compare the efficiency of soil moisture state and evapotranspiration flux predictions made by the four land surface models in the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2). Parameters dominated uncertainty in soil moisture estimates and forcing data dominated uncertainty in evapotranspiration estimates; however, the models themselves used only a fraction of the information available to them. This means that there is significant potential to improve all three components of the NLDAS-2 system. In particular, continued work toward refining the parameter maps and look-up tables, the forcing data measurement and processing, and also the land surface models themselves, has potential to result in improved estimates of surface mass and energy balances. PMID:29697706

Benchmarking NLDAS-2 Soil Moisture and Evapotranspiration to Separate Uncertainty Contributions.

PubMed

Nearing, Grey S; Mocko, David M; Peters-Lidard, Christa D; Kumar, Sujay V; Xia, Youlong

2016-03-01

Model benchmarking allows us to separate uncertainty in model predictions caused by model inputs from uncertainty due to model structural error. We extend this method with a "large-sample" approach (using data from multiple field sites) to measure prediction uncertainty caused by errors in (i) forcing data, (ii) model parameters, and (iii) model structure, and use it to compare the efficiency of soil moisture state and evapotranspiration flux predictions made by the four land surface models in the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2). Parameters dominated uncertainty in soil moisture estimates and forcing data dominated uncertainty in evapotranspiration estimates; however, the models themselves used only a fraction of the information available to them. This means that there is significant potential to improve all three components of the NLDAS-2 system. In particular, continued work toward refining the parameter maps and look-up tables, the forcing data measurement and processing, and also the land surface models themselves, has potential to result in improved estimates of surface mass and energy balances.

HIPPI: highly accurate protein family classification with ensembles of HMMs.

PubMed

Nguyen, Nam-Phuong; Nute, Michael; Mirarab, Siavash; Warnow, Tandy

2016-11-11

Given a new biological sequence, detecting membership in a known family is a basic step in many bioinformatics analyses, with applications to protein structure and function prediction and metagenomic taxon identification and abundance profiling, among others. Yet family identification of sequences that are distantly related to sequences in public databases or that are fragmentary remains one of the more difficult analytical problems in bioinformatics. We present a new technique for family identification called HIPPI (Hierarchical Profile Hidden Markov Models for Protein family Identification). HIPPI uses a novel technique to represent a multiple sequence alignment for a given protein family or superfamily by an ensemble of profile hidden Markov models computed using HMMER. An evaluation of HIPPI on the Pfam database shows that HIPPI has better overall precision and recall than blastp, HMMER, and pipelines based on HHsearch, and maintains good accuracy even for fragmentary query sequences and for protein families with low average pairwise sequence identity, both conditions where other methods degrade in accuracy. HIPPI provides accurate protein family identification and is robust to difficult model conditions. Our results, combined with observations from previous studies, show that ensembles of profile Hidden Markov models can better represent multiple sequence alignments than a single profile Hidden Markov model, and thus can improve downstream analyses for various bioinformatic tasks. Further research is needed to determine the best practices for building the ensemble of profile Hidden Markov models. HIPPI is available on GitHub at https://github.com/smirarab/sepp .

Representation of physiological drought at ecosystem level based on model and eddy covariance measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Novick, K. A.; Song, C.; Zhang, Q.; Hwang, T.

2017-12-01

Drought and heat waves are expected to increase both in frequency and amplitude, exhibiting a major disturbance to global carbon and water cycles under future climate change. However, how these climate anomalies translate into physiological drought, or ecosystem moisture stress are still not clear, especially under the co-limitations from soil moisture supply and atmospheric demand for water. In this study, we characterized the ecosystem-level moisture stress in a deciduous forest in the southeastern United States using the Coupled Carbon and Water (CCW) model and in-situ eddy covariance measurements. Physiologically, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) as an atmospheric water demand indicator largely controls the openness of leaf stomata, and regulates atmospheric carbon and water exchanges during periods of hydrological stress. Here, we tested three forms of VPD-related moisture scalars, i.e. exponent (K2), hyperbola (K3), and logarithm (K4) to quantify the sensitivity of light-use efficiency to VPD along different soil moisture conditions. The sensitivity indicators of K values were calibrated based on the framework of CCW using Monte Carlo simulations on the hourly scale, in which VPD and soil water content (SWC) are largely decoupled and the full carbon and water exchanging information are held. We found that three K values show similar performances in the predictions of ecosystem-level photosynthesis and transpiration after calibration. However, all K values show consistent gradient changes along SWC, indicating that this deciduous forest is less responsive to VPD as soil moisture decreases, a phenomena of isohydricity in which plants tend to close stomata to keep the leaf water potential constant and reduce the risk of hydraulic failure. Our study suggests that accounting for such isohydric information, or spectrum of moisture stress along different soil moisture conditions in models can significantly improve our ability to predict ecosystem responses to future drought.

Memetic Approaches for Optimizing Hidden Markov Models: A Case Study in Time Series Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bui, Lam Thu; Barlow, Michael

We propose a methodology for employing memetics (local search) within the framework of evolutionary algorithms to optimize parameters of hidden markov models. With this proposal, the rate and frequency of using local search are automatically changed over time either at a population or individual level. At the population level, we allow the rate of using local search to decay over time to zero (at the final generation). At the individual level, each individual is equipped with information of when it will do local search and for how long. This information evolves over time alongside the main elements of the chromosome representing the individual.

A model for metastable magnetism in the hidden-order phase of URu2Si2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyer, Lance; Yakovenko, Victor M.

2018-01-01

We propose an explanation for the experiment by Schemm et al. (2015) where the polar Kerr effect (PKE), indicating time-reversal symmetry (TRS) breaking, was observed in the hidden-order (HO) phase of URu2Si2. The PKE signal on warmup was seen only if a training magnetic field was present on cool-down. Using a Ginzburg-Landau model for a complex order parameter, we show that the system can have a metastable ferromagnetic state producing the PKE, even if the HO ground state respects TRS. We predict that a strong reversed magnetic field should reset the PKE to zero.

The relationship of subepidermal moisture and early stage pressure injury by visual skin assessment.

PubMed

Kim, Chul-Gyu; Park, Seungmi; Ko, Ji Woon; Jo, Sungho

2018-05-08

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship of subepidermal moisture and early stage pressure injury by visual skin assessment in elderly Korean. Twenty-nine elderly participated at a particular nursing home. Data were collected for 12 weeks by one wound care nurse. Visual skin assessment and subepidermal moisture value were measured at both buttocks, both ischia, both trochanters, sacrum, and coccyx of each subject once a week. Subepidermal moisture value of stage 1 pressure injury was significantly higher than that of no injury and blanching erythema. After adjustment with covariates, odds ratios of blanching erythema to normal skin and stage 1 pressure injury to blanching erythema/normal skin were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Odds ratio of blanching erythema to normal skin was 1.003 (p = .047) by 1-week prior subepidermal moisture value, and that of concurrent subepidermal moisture value was 1.004 (p = .011). Odds ratio of stage 1 pressure injury to normal skin/blanching erythema was 1.003 (p = .005) by 1-week prior subepidermal moisture value, and that for concurrent subepidermal moisture value was 1.007 (p = .030). Subepidermal moisture was associated with concurrent and future (1 week later) skin damage at both trochanters. Subepidermal moisture would be used to predict early skin damage in clinical nursing field for the effective pressure injury prevention. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

SMERGE: A multi-decadal root-zone soil moisture product for CONUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crow, W. T.; Dong, J.; Tobin, K. J.; Torres, R.

2017-12-01

Multi-decadal root-zone soil moisture products are of value for a range of water resource and climate applications. The NASA-funded root-zone soil moisture merging project (SMERGE) seeks to develop such products through the optimal merging of land surface model predictions with surface soil moisture retrievals acquired from multi-sensor remote sensing products. This presentation will describe the creation and validation of a daily, multi-decadal (1979-2015), vertically-integrated (both surface to 40 cm and surface to 100 cm), 0.125-degree root-zone product over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The modeling backbone of the system is based on hourly root-zone soil moisture simulations generated by the Noah model (v3.2) operating within the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2). Remotely-sensed surface soil moisture retrievals are taken from the multi-sensor European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative soil moisture data set (ESA CCI SM). In particular, the talk will detail: 1) the exponential smoothing approach used to convert surface ESA CCI SM retrievals into root-zone soil moisture estimates, 2) the averaging technique applied to merge (temporally-sporadic) remotely-sensed with (continuous) NLDAS-2 land surface model estimates of root-zone soil moisture into the unified SMERGE product, and 3) the validation of the SMERGE product using long-term, ground-based soil moisture datasets available within CONUS.

Dual frequency microwave radiometer measurements of soil moisture for bare and vegetated rough surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, S. L.

1974-01-01

Controlled ground-based passive microwave radiometric measurements on soil moisture were conducted to determine the effects of terrain surface roughness and vegetation on microwave emission. Theoretical predictions were compared with the experimental results and with some recent airborne radiometric measurements. The relationship of soil moisture to the permittivity for the soil was obtained in the laboratory. A dual frequency radiometer, 1.41356 GHz and 10.69 GHz, took measurements at angles between 0 and 50 degrees from an altitude of about fifty feet. Distinct surface roughnesses were studied. With the roughness undisturbed, oats were later planted and vegetated and bare field measurements were compared. The 1.4 GHz radiometer was less affected than the 10.6 GHz radiometer, which under vegetated conditions was incapable of detecting soil moisture. The bare surface theoretical model was inadequate, although the vegetation model appeared to be valid. Moisture parameters to correlate apparent temperature with soil moisture were compared.

A rule-based expert system applied to moisture durability of building envelopes

DOE PAGES

Boudreaux, Philip R.; Pallin, Simon B.; Accawi, Gina K.; ...

2018-01-09

The moisture durability of an envelope component such as a wall or roof is difficult to predict. Moisture durability depends on all the construction materials used, as well as the climate, orientation, air tightness, and indoor conditions. Modern building codes require more insulation and tighter construction but provide little guidance about how to ensure these energy-efficient assemblies remain moisture durable. Furthermore, as new products and materials are introduced, builders are increasingly uncertain about the long-term durability of their building envelope designs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the US Department of Energy’s Building America Program are applying a rule-based expert systemmore » methodology in a web tool to help designers determine whether a given wall design is likely to be moisture durable and provide expert guidance on moisture risk management specific to a wall design and climate. Finally, the expert system is populated with knowledge from both expert judgment and probabilistic hygrothermal simulation results.« less

Evaluation of HCMM data for assessing soil moisture and water table depth. [South Dakota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, D. G.; Heilman, J. L.; Tunheim, J. A.; Westin, F. C.; Heilman, W. E.; Beutler, G. A.; Ness, S. D. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

Soil moisture in the 0-cm to 4-cm layer could be estimated with 1-mm soil temperatures throughout the growing season of a rainfed barley crop in eastern South Dakota. Empirical equations were developed to reduce the effect of canopy cover when radiometrically estimating the soil temperature. Corrective equations were applied to an aircraft simulation of HCMM data for a diversity of crop types and land cover conditions to estimate the soil moisture. The average difference between observed and measured soil moisture was 1.6% of field capacity. Shallow alluvial aquifers were located with HCMM predawn data. After correcting the data for vegetation differences, equations were developed for predicting water table depths within the aquifer. A finite difference code simulating soil moisture and soil temperature shows that soils with different moisture profiles differed in soil temperatures in a well defined functional manner. A significant surface thermal anomaly was found to be associated with shallow water tables.

A rule-based expert system applied to moisture durability of building envelopes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boudreaux, Philip R.; Pallin, Simon B.; Accawi, Gina K.

The moisture durability of an envelope component such as a wall or roof is difficult to predict. Moisture durability depends on all the construction materials used, as well as the climate, orientation, air tightness, and indoor conditions. Modern building codes require more insulation and tighter construction but provide little guidance about how to ensure these energy-efficient assemblies remain moisture durable. Furthermore, as new products and materials are introduced, builders are increasingly uncertain about the long-term durability of their building envelope designs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the US Department of Energy’s Building America Program are applying a rule-based expert systemmore » methodology in a web tool to help designers determine whether a given wall design is likely to be moisture durable and provide expert guidance on moisture risk management specific to a wall design and climate. Finally, the expert system is populated with knowledge from both expert judgment and probabilistic hygrothermal simulation results.« less

Implications of variable waste placement conditions for MSW landfills.

PubMed

Cox, Jason T; Yesiller, Nazli; Hanson, James L

2015-12-01

This investigation was conducted to evaluate the influence of waste placement practices on the engineering response of municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills. Waste placement conditions were varied by moisture addition to the wastes at the time of disposal. Tests were conducted at a California landfill in test plots (residential component of incoming wastes) and full-scale active face (all incoming wastes including residential, commercial, and self-delivered components). The short-term effects of moisture addition were assessed by investigating compaction characteristics and moisture distribution and the long-term effects by estimating settlement characteristics of the variably placed wastes. In addition, effects on engineering properties including hydraulic conductivity and shear strength, as well as economic aspects were investigated. The unit weight of the wastes increased with moisture addition to a maximum value and then decreased with further moisture addition. At the optimum moisture conditions, 68% more waste could be placed in the same landfill volume compared to the baseline conditions. Moisture addition raised the volumetric moisture content of the wastes to the range 33-42%, consistent with values at and above field capacity. Moisture transfer occurred between consecutive layers of compacted wastes and a moisture addition schedule of 2 days of as-received conditions and 1 day of moisture addition was recommended. Settlement of wastes was estimated to increase with moisture addition, with a 34% increase at optimum moisture compared to as-received conditions. Overall, moisture addition during compaction increased unit weight, the amount of incoming wastes disposed in a given landfill volume, biological activity potential, and predicted settlement. The combined effects have significant environmental and economic implications for landfill operations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring moisture dynamics to predict fire severity in longleaf pine forests.

Treesearch

Sue A. Ferguson; Julia E. Ruthford; Steven J. McKay; David Wright; Clint Wright; Roger Ottmar

2002-01-01

To understand the combustion limit of biomass fuels in a longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) forest, an experiment was conducted to monitor the moisture content of potentially flammable forest floor materials (litter and duff) at Eglin Air Force Base in the Florida Panhandle. While longleaf pine forests are fire dependent ecosystems, a long history of...

Integrating real-time and manual monitored data to predict hillslope soil moisture dynamics with high spatio-temporal resolution using linear and non-linear models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture (') is a challenge that remains to be better understood. A trade-off exists between spatial coverage and temporal resolution when using the manual and real-time ' monitoring methods. This restricted the comprehensive and intensive examination of ' dynamic...

Wood-plastic composites with reduced moisture : effects of chemical modification on durability in the laboratory and field

Treesearch

Rebecca E. Ibach; Craig M. Clemons; Rebecca L. Schumann

2007-01-01

Although laboratory evaluations of wood-plastic composites (WPCs) are helpful in predicting long-term durability, field studies are needed to verify overall long-term durability. Field exposure can encompass numerous degradations i.e., fungal, ultraviolet light, moisture, wind, temperature, freeze/thaw, wet/ dry cycling, termites, mold, etc. that traditionally are...

Automatic speech recognition using a predictive echo state network classifier.

PubMed

Skowronski, Mark D; Harris, John G

2007-04-01

We have combined an echo state network (ESN) with a competitive state machine framework to create a classification engine called the predictive ESN classifier. We derive the expressions for training the predictive ESN classifier and show that the model was significantly more noise robust compared to a hidden Markov model in noisy speech classification experiments by 8+/-1 dB signal-to-noise ratio. The simple training algorithm and noise robustness of the predictive ESN classifier make it an attractive classification engine for automatic speech recognition.

Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal Reservoir Inflow Forecast using Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhopadhyay, S.; Arumugam, S.

2017-12-01

Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) (15-90 days) streamflow forecasting is an emerging area of research that provides seamless information for reservoir operation from weather time scales to seasonal time scales. From an operational perspective, sub-seasonal inflow forecasts are highly valuable as these enable water managers to decide short-term releases (15-30 days), while holding water for seasonal needs (e.g., irrigation and municipal supply) and to meet end-of-the-season target storage at a desired level. We propose a Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model (BHHMM) to develop S2S inflow forecasts for the Tennessee Valley Area (TVA) reservoir system. Here, the hidden states are predicted by relevant indices that influence the inflows at S2S time scale. The hidden Markov model also captures the both spatial and temporal hierarchy in predictors that operate at S2S time scale with model parameters being estimated as a posterior distribution using a Bayesian framework. We present our work in two steps, namely single site model and multi-site model. For proof of concept, we consider inflows to Douglas Dam, Tennessee, in the single site model. For multisite model we consider reservoirs in the upper Tennessee valley. Streamflow forecasts are issued and updated continuously every day at S2S time scale. We considered precipitation forecasts obtained from NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) GCM as predictors for developing S2S streamflow forecasts along with relevant indices for predicting hidden states. Spatial dependence of the inflow series of reservoirs are also preserved in the multi-site model. To circumvent the non-normality of the data, we consider the HMM in a Generalized Linear Model setting. Skill of the proposed approach is tested using split sample validation against a traditional multi-site canonical correlation model developed using the same set of predictors. From the posterior distribution of the inflow forecasts, we also highlight different system behavior under varied global and local scale climatic influences from the developed BHMM.

KSC-2015-1226

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-28

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The launch gantry is rolled back to reveal the United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket with the Soil Moisture Active Passive, or SMAP, satellite aboard, at the Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. SMAP is a remote sensing mission designed to measure and map the Earth's soil moisture distribution and freeze/thaw stat with unprecedented accuracy, resolution and coverage. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://smap.jpl.nasa.gov Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-2015-1236

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-28

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The launch gantry is rolled back to reveal the United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket with the Soil Moisture Active Passive, or SMAP, satellite aboard, at Space Launch Complex 2 on Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. SMAP is a remote sensing mission designed to measure and map the Earth's soil moisture distribution and freeze/thaw stat with unprecedented accuracy, resolution and coverage. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://www.nasa.gov/smap. Photo credit: NASA/Randy Beaudoin

KSC-2015-1227

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-28

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The launch gantry is rolled back to reveal the United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket with the Soil Moisture Active Passive, or SMAP, satellite aboard, at the Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. SMAP is a remote sensing mission designed to measure and map the Earth's soil moisture distribution and freeze/thaw stat with unprecedented accuracy, resolution and coverage. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://smap.jpl.nasa.gov Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-2015-1228

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The launch gantry is rolled back to reveal the United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket with the Soil Moisture Active Passive, or SMAP, satellite aboard, at the Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. SMAP is a remote sensing mission designed to measure and map the Earth's soil moisture distribution and freeze/thaw stat with unprecedented accuracy, resolution and coverage. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://smap.jpl.nasa.gov Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-2015-1225

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-28

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The launch gantry is rolled back to reveal the United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket with the Soil Moisture Active Passive, or SMAP, satellite aboard, at the Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. SMAP is a remote sensing mission designed to measure and map the Earth's soil moisture distribution and freeze/thaw stat with unprecedented accuracy, resolution and coverage. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://smap.jpl.nasa.gov Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-2015-1235

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-28

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The launch gantry is rolled back to reveal the United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket with the Soil Moisture Active Passive, or SMAP, satellite aboard, at Space Launch Complex 2 on Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. SMAP is a remote sensing mission designed to measure and map the Earth's soil moisture distribution and freeze/thaw stat with unprecedented accuracy, resolution and coverage. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://www.nasa.gov/smap. Photo credit: NASA/Randy Beaudoin

KSC-2015-1238

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-28

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The launch gantry is rolled back to reveal the United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket with the Soil Moisture Active Passive, or SMAP, satellite aboard, at Space Launch Complex 2 on Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. SMAP is a remote sensing mission designed to measure and map the Earth's soil moisture distribution and freeze/thaw stat with unprecedented accuracy, resolution and coverage. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://www.nasa.gov/smap. Photo credit: NASA/Randy Beaudoin

KSC-2015-1234

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-28

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The launch gantry is rolled back to reveal the United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket with the Soil Moisture Active Passive, or SMAP, satellite aboard, at Space Launch Complex 2 on Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. SMAP is a remote sensing mission designed to measure and map the Earth's soil moisture distribution and freeze/thaw stat with unprecedented accuracy, resolution and coverage. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://www.nasa.gov/smap. Photo credit: NASA/Randy Beaudoin

KSC-2015-1224

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-28

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The launch gantry is rolled back to reveal the United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket with the Soil Moisture Active Passive, or SMAP, satellite aboard, at the Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. SMAP is a remote sensing mission designed to measure and map the Earth's soil moisture distribution and freeze/thaw stat with unprecedented accuracy, resolution and coverage. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://smap.jpl.nasa.gov Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-2015-1223

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-28

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The launch gantry is rolled back to reveal the United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket with the Soil Moisture Active Passive, or SMAP, satellite aboard, at the Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. SMAP is a remote sensing mission designed to measure and map the Earth's soil moisture distribution and freeze/thaw stat with unprecedented accuracy, resolution and coverage. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://smap.jpl.nasa.gov Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

Kinetics of the crust thickness development of bread during baking.

PubMed

Soleimani Pour-Damanab, Alireza; Jafary, A; Rafiee, Sh

2014-11-01

The development of crust thickness of bread during baking is an important aspect of bread quality and shelf-life. Computer vision system was used for measuring the crust thickness via colorimetric properties of bread surface during baking process. Crust thickness had a negative and positive relationship with Lightness (L (*) ) and total color change (E (*) ) of bread surface, respectively. A linear negative trend was found between crust thickness and moisture ratio of bread samples. A simple mathematical model was proposed to predict the development of crust thickness of bread during baking, where the crust thickness was depended on moisture ratio that was described by the Page moisture losing model. The independent variables of the model were baking conditions, i.e. oven temperature and air velocity, and baking time. Consequently, the proposed model had well prediction ability, as the mean absolute estimation error of the model was 7.93 %.

KSC-2015-1229

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-28

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The launch gantry is rolled back to reveal the United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket with the Soil Moisture Active Passive, or SMAP, satellite aboard, at the Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. SMAP is a remote sensing mission designed to measure and map the Earth's soil moisture distribution and freeze/thaw stat with unprecedented accuracy, resolution and coverage. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://smap.jpl.nasa.gov Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-2015-1233

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-28

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The launch gantry is rolled back to reveal the United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket with the Soil Moisture Active Passive, or SMAP, satellite aboard, at Space Launch Complex 2 on Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. SMAP is a remote sensing mission designed to measure and map the Earth's soil moisture distribution and freeze/thaw stat with unprecedented accuracy, resolution and coverage. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://www.nasa.gov/smap. Photo credit: NASA/Randy Beaudoin

KSC-2015-1237

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-28

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The launch gantry is rolled back to reveal the United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket with the Soil Moisture Active Passive, or SMAP, satellite aboard, at Space Launch Complex 2 on Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. SMAP is a remote sensing mission designed to measure and map the Earth's soil moisture distribution and freeze/thaw stat with unprecedented accuracy, resolution and coverage. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://www.nasa.gov/smap. Photo credit: NASA/Randy Beaudoin

Gene expression programming approach for the estimation of moisture ratio in herbal plants drying with vacuum heat pump dryer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dikmen, Erkan; Ayaz, Mahir; Gül, Doğan; Şahin, Arzu Şencan

2017-07-01

The determination of drying behavior of herbal plants is a complex process. In this study, gene expression programming (GEP) model was used to determine drying behavior of herbal plants as fresh sweet basil, parsley and dill leaves. Time and drying temperatures are input parameters for the estimation of moisture ratio of herbal plants. The results of the GEP model are compared with experimental drying data. The statistical values as mean absolute percentage error, root-mean-squared error and R-square are used to calculate the difference between values predicted by the GEP model and the values actually observed from the experimental study. It was found that the results of the GEP model and experimental study are in moderately well agreement. The results have shown that the GEP model can be considered as an efficient modelling technique for the prediction of moisture ratio of herbal plants.

a Probability Model for Drought Prediction Using Fusion of Markov Chain and SAX Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jouybari-Moghaddam, Y.; Saradjian, M. R.; Forati, A. M.

2017-09-01

Drought is one of the most powerful natural disasters which are affected on different aspects of the environment. Most of the time this phenomenon is immense in the arid and semi-arid area. Monitoring and prediction the severity of the drought can be useful in the management of the natural disaster caused by drought. Many indices were used in predicting droughts such as SPI, VCI, and TVX. In this paper, based on three data sets (rainfall, NDVI, and land surface temperature) which are acquired from MODIS satellite imagery, time series of SPI, VCI, and TVX in time limited between winters 2000 to summer 2015 for the east region of Isfahan province were created. Using these indices and fusion of symbolic aggregation approximation and hidden Markov chain drought was predicted for fall 2015. For this purpose, at first, each time series was transformed into the set of quality data based on the state of drought (5 group) by using SAX algorithm then the probability matrix for the future state was created by using Markov hidden chain. The fall drought severity was predicted by fusion the probability matrix and state of drought severity in summer 2015. The prediction based on the likelihood for each state of drought includes severe drought, middle drought, normal drought, severe wet and middle wet. The analysis and experimental result from proposed algorithm show that the product of this algorithm is acceptable and the proposed algorithm is appropriate and efficient for predicting drought using remote sensor data.

NIR spectroscopic measurement of moisture content in Scots pine seeds.

PubMed

Lestander, Torbjörn A; Geladi, Paul

2003-04-01

When tree seeds are used for seedling production it is important that they are of high quality in order to be viable. One of the factors influencing viability is moisture content and an ideal quality control system should be able to measure this factor quickly for each seed. Seed moisture content within the range 3-34% was determined by near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) single seeds and on bulk seed samples consisting of 40-50 seeds. The models for predicting water content from the spectra were made by partial least squares (PLS) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. Different conditions were simulated involving both using less wavelengths and going from samples to single seeds. Reflectance and transmission measurements were used. Different spectral pretreatment methods were tested on the spectra. Including bias, the lowest prediction errors for PLS models based on reflectance within 780-2280 nm from bulk samples and single seeds were 0.8% and 1.9%, respectively. Reduction of the single seed reflectance spectrum to 850-1048 nm gave higher biases and prediction errors in the test set. In transmission (850-1048 nm) the prediction error was 2.7% for single seeds. OLS models based on simulated 4-sensor single seed system consisting of optical filters with Gaussian transmission indicated more than 3.4% error in prediction. A practical F-test based on test sets to differentiate models is introduced.

Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) Product Specification Document

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichle, Rolf H.; Ardizzone, Joseph V.; Kim, Gi-Kong; Lucchesi, Robert A.; Smith, Edmond B.; Weiss, Barry H.

2015-01-01

This is the Product Specification Document (PSD) for Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) data for the Science Data System (SDS) of the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) project. The L4_SM data product provides estimates of land surface conditions based on the assimilation of SMAP observations into a customized version of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) land data assimilation system (LDAS). This document applies to any standard L4_SM data product generated by the SMAP Project. The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission will enhance the accuracy and the resolution of space-based measurements of terrestrial soil moisture and freeze-thaw state. SMAP data products will have a noteworthy impact on multiple relevant and current Earth Science endeavors. These include: Understanding of the processes that link the terrestrial water, the energy and the carbon cycles, Estimations of global water and energy fluxes over the land surfaces, Quantification of the net carbon flux in boreal landscapes Forecast skill of both weather and climate, Predictions and monitoring of natural disasters including floods, landslides and droughts, and Predictions of agricultural productivity. To provide these data, the SMAP mission will deploy a satellite observatory in a near polar, sun synchronous orbit. The observatory will house an L-band radiometer that operates at 1.40 GHz and an L-band radar that operates at 1.26 GHz. The instruments will share a rotating reflector antenna with a 6 meter aperture that scans over a 1000 km swath.

Near-infrared reflectance models for the rapid prediction of quality of brewing raw materials.

PubMed

Marte, Luisa; Belloni, Paolo; Genorini, Emiliano; Sileoni, Valeria; Perretti, Giuseppe; Montanari, Luigi; Marconi, Ombretta

2009-01-28

Calibration models for quickly and reliably predicting moisture content and total nitrogen, both "as is" and "dry matter" on malt, as well as moisture content and total lipids, both "as is" and "dry matter", on maize by means of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy were developed. The FT-NIR spectra recorded on the finely ground cereals were correlated to the analytical data by means of the multivariate PLS algorithm. In particular, these models were developed on the raw materials, which are used by the main Italian brewing industries. Validation was carried out both by means of cross-validation and test set validation. Regression coefficients (R(2)) were higher than 97 for both malt and maize moisture content and higher than 85 and 88 for malt total nitrogen and maize total lipids, respectively. The RMSE values (both RMSECV and RMSEP) were lower than 0.1% m/m for both malt and maize moisture contents, whereas they ranged from 0.024 to 0.042% m/m for malt total nitrogen and from 0.042 to 0.055% m/m for maize total lipids. Repeatability was tested by taking into account more than one sample for each calibration and compared, when possible, to those of the standard methods. Repeatability (r(95)) ranged from 0.060 to 0.158% m/m and from 0.020 to 0.055% m/m for malt moisture and total nitrogen contents, respectively, and from 0.094 to 0.160% m/m and from 0.076 to 0.208% m/m for maize moisture and total lipids contents, respectively.

Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Big Data Fusion in Soil Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohanty, B.; Kathuria, D.; Katzfuss, M.

2016-12-01

Soil moisture datasets from remote sensing (RS) platforms (such as SMOS and SMAP) and reanalysis products from land surface models are typically available on a coarse spatial granularity of several square km. Ground based sensors on the other hand provide observations on a finer spatial scale (meter scale or less) but are sparsely available. Soil moisture is affected by high variability due to complex interactions between geologic, topographic, vegetation and atmospheric variables. Hydrologic processes usually occur at a scale of 1 km or less and therefore spatially ubiquitous and temporally periodic soil moisture products at this scale are required to aid local decision makers in agriculture, weather prediction and reservoir operations. Past literature has largely focused on downscaling RS soil moisture for a small extent of a field or a watershed and hence the applicability of such products has been limited. The present study employs a spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) to derive soil moisture products at a spatial scale of 1 km for the state of Oklahoma by fusing point scale Mesonet data and coarse scale RS data for soil moisture and its auxiliary covariates such as precipitation, topography, soil texture and vegetation. It is seen that the BHM model handles change of support problems easily while performing accurate uncertainty quantification arising from measurement errors and imperfect retrieval algorithms. The computational challenge arising due to the large number of measurements is tackled by utilizing basis function approaches and likelihood approximations. The BHM model can be considered as a complex Bayesian extension of traditional geostatistical prediction methods (such as Kriging) for large datasets in the presence of uncertainties.

Real-time process monitoring in a semi-continuous fluid-bed dryer - microwave resonance technology versus near-infrared spectroscopy.

PubMed

Peters, Johanna; Teske, Andreas; Taute, Wolfgang; Döscher, Claas; Höft, Michael; Knöchel, Reinhard; Breitkreutz, Jörg

2018-02-15

The trend towards continuous manufacturing in the pharmaceutical industry is associated with an increasing demand for advanced control strategies. It is a mandatory requirement to obtain reliable real-time information on critical quality attributes (CQA) during every process step as the decision on diversion of material needs to be performed fast and automatically. Where possible, production equipment should provide redundant systems for in-process control (IPC) measurements to ensure continuous process monitoring even if one of the systems is not available. In this paper, two methods for real-time monitoring of granule moisture in a semi-continuous fluid-bed drying unit are compared. While near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has already proven to be a suitable process analytical technology (PAT) tool for moisture measurements in fluid-bed applications, microwave resonance technology (MRT) showed difficulties to monitor moistures above 8% until recently. The results indicate, that the newly developed MRT sensor operating at four resonances is capable to compete with NIR spectroscopy. While NIR spectra were preprocessed by mean centering and first derivative before application of partial least squares (PLS) regression to build predictive models (RMSEP = 0.20%), microwave moisture values of two resonances sufficed to build a statistically close multiple linear regression (MLR) model (RMSEP = 0.07%) for moisture prediction. Thereby, it could be verified that moisture monitoring by MRT sensor systems could be a valuable alternative to NIR spectroscopy or could be used as a redundant system providing great ease of application. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of quality control variables on failure of graphite/epoxy under extreme moisture conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clements, L. L.; Lee, P. R.

1980-01-01

Tension tests on graphite/epoxy composites were performed to determine the influence of various quality control variables on failure strength as a function of moisture and moderate temperatures. The extremely high and low moisture contents investigated were found to have less effect upon properties than did temperature or the quality control variables of specimen flaws and prepreg batch to batch variations. In particular, specimen flaws were found to drastically reduce the predicted strength of the composite, whereas specimens from different batches of prepreg displayed differences in strength as a function of temperature and extreme moisture exposure. The findings illustrate the need for careful specimen preparation, studies of flaw sensitivity, and careful quality control in any study of composite materials.

Hidden disorder in the α '→δ transformation of Pu-1.9 at.% Ga

DOE PAGES

Jeffries, J. R.; Manley, M. E.; Wall, M. A.; ...

2012-06-06

Enthalpy and entropy are thermodynamic quantities critical to determining how and at what temperature a phase transition occurs. At a phase transition, the enthalpy and temperature-weighted entropy differences between two phases are equal (ΔH=TΔS), but there are materials where this balance has not been experimentally or theoretically realized, leading to the idea of hidden order and disorder. In a Pu-1.9 at. % Ga alloy, the δ phase is retained as a metastable state at room temperature, but at low temperatures, the δ phase yields to a mixed-phase microstructure of δ- and α'-Pu. The previously measured sources of entropy associated withmore » the α'→δ transformation fail to sum to the entropy predicted theoretically. We report an experimental measurement of the entropy of the α'→δ transformation that corroborates the theoretical prediction, and implies that only about 65% of the entropy stabilizing the δ phase is accounted for, leaving a missing entropy of about 0.5 k B/atom. Some previously proposed mechanisms for generating entropy are discussed, but none seem capable of providing the necessary disorder to stabilize the δ phase. This hidden disorder represents multiple accessible states per atom within the δ phase of Pu that may not be included in our current understanding of the properties and phase stability of δ-Pu.« less

Assimilation of Smos Observations to Generate a Prototype SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root-Zone Soil Moisture Product

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichle, Rolf H.; De Lannoy, Gabrielle J. M.; Crow, Wade T.; Koster, Randal D.; Kimball, John

2012-01-01

The Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP; [1]) mission is being implemented by NASA for launch in October 2014. The primary science objectives of SMAP are to enhance understanding of land surface controls on the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to determine their linkages. Moreover, the high-resolution soil moisture mapping provided by SMAP has practical applications in weather and seasonal climate prediction, agriculture, human health, drought and flood decision support. The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS; [2]) mission was launched by ESA in November 2009 and has since been observing L-band (1.4 GHz) upwelling passive microwaves. In this paper we describe our use of SMOS brightness temperature observations to generate a prototype of the planned SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root-zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product [5].

Prediction of near-surface soil moisture at large scale by digital terrain modeling and neural networks.

PubMed

Lavado Contador, J F; Maneta, M; Schnabel, S

2006-10-01

The capability of Artificial Neural Network models to forecast near-surface soil moisture at fine spatial scale resolution has been tested for a 99.5 ha watershed located in SW Spain using several easy to achieve digital models of topographic and land cover variables as inputs and a series of soil moisture measurements as training data set. The study methods were designed in order to determining the potentials of the neural network model as a tool to gain insight into soil moisture distribution factors and also in order to optimize the data sampling scheme finding the optimum size of the training data set. Results suggest the efficiency of the methods in forecasting soil moisture, as a tool to assess the optimum number of field samples, and the importance of the variables selected in explaining the final map obtained.

Evaluation of the Influence of Wind-Driven Rain on Moisture in Cellular Concrete Wall Boards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alsabry, A.; Nikitsin, V. I.; Kofanov, V. A.; Backiel-Brzozowska, B.

2017-08-01

The non-stationary moisture level of a cellular concrete wall board in a heated utility building located in the northern part of the town of Brest (Belarus), depending on the climatic influence, was assessed in this work. The results were obtained both in a calculation experiment and a physical test. It was observed that the main reason for the high moisture levels in cellular concrete is wind-driven rain intensifying the process of free capillary moisture transfer. A comparative analysis of the results of the physical test and the calculation experiment showed that the THSS software elaborated by the authors was able to predict the actual moisture levels of the shielding structure under study accurately enough when precise data concerning the thermal and physical characteristics of the materials as well as the occurring climatic influences were submitted.

Efficient Learning of Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Models for Disease Progression

PubMed Central

Liu, Yu-Ying; Li, Shuang; Li, Fuxin; Song, Le; Rehg, James M.

2016-01-01

The Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Model (CT-HMM) is an attractive approach to modeling disease progression due to its ability to describe noisy observations arriving irregularly in time. However, the lack of an efficient parameter learning algorithm for CT-HMM restricts its use to very small models or requires unrealistic constraints on the state transitions. In this paper, we present the first complete characterization of efficient EM-based learning methods for CT-HMM models. We demonstrate that the learning problem consists of two challenges: the estimation of posterior state probabilities and the computation of end-state conditioned statistics. We solve the first challenge by reformulating the estimation problem in terms of an equivalent discrete time-inhomogeneous hidden Markov model. The second challenge is addressed by adapting three approaches from the continuous time Markov chain literature to the CT-HMM domain. We demonstrate the use of CT-HMMs with more than 100 states to visualize and predict disease progression using a glaucoma dataset and an Alzheimer’s disease dataset. PMID:27019571

Gapped excitations in the high-pressure antiferromagnetic phase of URu 2 Si 2

DOE PAGES

Williams, Travis J.; Oak Ridge National Lab.; Barath, Harini; ...

2017-05-31

Here, we report a neutron scattering study of the magnetic excitation spectrum in each of the three temperature and pressure driven phases of URu 2Si 2. We also found qualitatively similar excitations throughout the (H0L) scattering plane in the hidden order and large moment phases, with no changes in the hbar-omega-widths of the excitations at the Sigma = (1.407,0,0) and Z = (1,0,0) points, within our experimental resolution. There is, however, an increase in the gap at the Sigma point and an increase in the first moment of both excitations. At 8 meV where the Q-dependence of magnetic scattering inmore » the hidden order phase is extended in Q-space, the excitations in the large moment phase are sharper. Furthermore, the expanded Q-hbar-omega coverage of this study suggest more complete nesting within the antiferromagnetic phase, an important property for future theoretical predictions of a hidden order parameter.« less

Global Soil Moisture from the Aquarius/SAC-D Satellite: Description and Initial Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindlish, Rajat; Jackson, Thomas; Cosh, Michael; Zhao, Tianjie; O'Neil, Peggy

2015-01-01

Aquarius satellite observations over land offer a new resource for measuring soil moisture from space. Although Aquarius was designed for ocean salinity mapping, our objective in this investigation is to exploit the large amount of land observations that Aquarius acquires and extend the mission scope to include the retrieval of surface soil moisture. The soil moisture retrieval algorithm development focused on using only the radiometer data because of the extensive heritage of passive microwave retrieval of soil moisture. The single channel algorithm (SCA) was implemented using the Aquarius observations to estimate surface soil moisture. Aquarius radiometer observations from three beams (after bias/gain modification) along with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction model forecast surface temperatures were then used to retrieve soil moisture. Ancillary data inputs required for using the SCA are vegetation water content, land surface temperature, and several soil and vegetation parameters based on land cover classes. The resulting global spatial patterns of soil moisture were consistent with the precipitation climatology and with soil moisture from other satellite missions (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System and Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity). Initial assessments were performed using in situ observations from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Little Washita and Little River watershed soil moisture networks. Results showed good performance by the algorithm for these land surface conditions for the period of August 2011-June 2013 (rmse = 0.031 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3), Bias = -0.007 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3), and R = 0.855). This radiometer-only soil moisture product will serve as a baseline for continuing research on both active and combined passive-active soil moisture algorithms. The products are routinely available through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration data archive at the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Prediction of Industrial Electric Energy Consumption in Anhui Province Based on GA-BP Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiajing; Yin, Guodong; Ni, Youcong; Chen, Jinlan

2018-01-01

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of industrial electrical energy consumption, a prediction model of industrial electrical energy consumption was proposed based on genetic algorithm and neural network. The model use genetic algorithm to optimize the weights and thresholds of BP neural network, and the model is used to predict the energy consumption of industrial power in Anhui Province, to improve the prediction accuracy of industrial electric energy consumption in Anhui province. By comparing experiment of GA-BP prediction model and BP neural network model, the GA-BP model is more accurate with smaller number of neurons in the hidden layer.

Shedding Light on Synergistic Chemical Genetic Connections with Machine Learning.

PubMed

Ekins, Sean; Siqueira-Neto, Jair Lage

2015-12-23

Machine learning can be used to predict compounds acting synergistically, and this could greatly expand the universe of available potential treatments for diseases that are currently hidden in the dark chemical matter. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Microwave soil moisture estimation in humid and semiarid watersheds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Neill, P. E.; Jackson, T. J.; Chauhan, N. S.; Seyfried, M. S.

1993-01-01

Land surface hydrologic-atmospheric interactions in humid and semi-arid watersheds were investigated. Active and passive microwave sensors were used to estimate the spatial and temporal distribution of soil moisture at the catchment scale in four areas. Results are presented and discussed. The eventual use of this information in the analysis and prediction of associated hydrologic processes is examined.

Combining hygrothermal and corrosion models to predict corrosion of metal fasteners embedded in wood

Treesearch

Samuel L. Zelinka; Dominique Derome; Samuel V. Glass

2011-01-01

A combined heat, moisture, and corrosion model is presented and used to simulate the corrosion of metal fasteners embedded in solid wood exposed to the exterior environment. First, the moisture content and temperature at the wood/fastener interface is determined at each time step. Then, the amount of corrosion is determined spatially using an empirical corrosion rate...

Testcross additive and dominance effects in best linear unbiased prediction of maize single-cross performance.

PubMed

Bernardo, R

1996-11-01

Best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) has been found to be useful in maize (Zea mays L.) breeding. The advantage of including both testcross additive and dominance effects (Intralocus Model) in BLUP, rather than only testcross additive effects (Additive Model), has not been clearly demonstrated. The objective of this study was to compare the usefulness of Intralocus and Additive Models for BLUP of maize single-cross performance. Multilocation data from 1990 to 1995 were obtained from the hybrid testing program of Limagrain Genetics. Grain yield, moisture, stalk lodging, and root lodging of untested single crosses were predicted from (1) the performance of tested single crosses and (2) known genetic relationships among the parental inbreds. Correlations between predicted and observed performance were obtained with a delete-one cross-validation procedure. For the Intralocus Model, the correlations ranged from 0.50 to 0.66 for yield, 0.88 to 0.94 for moisture, 0.47 to 0.69 for stalk lodging, and 0.31 to 0.45 for root lodging. The BLUP procedure was consistently more effective with the Intralocus Model than with the Additive Model. When the Additive Model was used instead of the Intralocus Model, the reductions in the correlation were largest for root lodging (0.06-0.35), smallest for moisture (0.00-0.02), and intermediate for yield (0.02-0.06) and stalk lodging (0.02-0.08). The ratio of dominance variance (v D) to total genetic variance (v G) was highest for root lodging (0.47) and lowest for moisture (0.10). The Additive Model may be used if prior information indicates that VD for a given trait has little contribution to VG. Otherwise, the continued use of the Intralocus Model for BLUP of single-cross performance is recommended.

A novel artificial neural network method for biomedical prediction based on matrix pseudo-inversion.

PubMed

Cai, Binghuang; Jiang, Xia

2014-04-01

Biomedical prediction based on clinical and genome-wide data has become increasingly important in disease diagnosis and classification. To solve the prediction problem in an effective manner for the improvement of clinical care, we develop a novel Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method based on Matrix Pseudo-Inversion (MPI) for use in biomedical applications. The MPI-ANN is constructed as a three-layer (i.e., input, hidden, and output layers) feed-forward neural network, and the weights connecting the hidden and output layers are directly determined based on MPI without a lengthy learning iteration. The LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) method is also presented for comparative purposes. Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) simulated data and real breast cancer data are employed to validate the performance of the MPI-ANN method via 5-fold cross validation. Experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the developed MPI-ANN for disease classification and prediction, in view of the significantly superior accuracy (i.e., the rate of correct predictions), as compared with LASSO. The results based on the real breast cancer data also show that the MPI-ANN has better performance than other machine learning methods (including support vector machine (SVM), logistic regression (LR), and an iterative ANN). In addition, experiments demonstrate that our MPI-ANN could be used for bio-marker selection as well. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Protein Solvent-Accessibility Prediction by a Stacked Deep Bidirectional Recurrent Neural Network.

PubMed

Zhang, Buzhong; Li, Linqing; Lü, Qiang

2018-05-25

Residue solvent accessibility is closely related to the spatial arrangement and packing of residues. Predicting the solvent accessibility of a protein is an important step to understand its structure and function. In this work, we present a deep learning method to predict residue solvent accessibility, which is based on a stacked deep bidirectional recurrent neural network applied to sequence profiles. To capture more long-range sequence information, a merging operator was proposed when bidirectional information from hidden nodes was merged for outputs. Three types of merging operators were used in our improved model, with a long short-term memory network performing as a hidden computing node. The trained database was constructed from 7361 proteins extracted from the PISCES server using a cut-off of 25% sequence identity. Sequence-derived features including position-specific scoring matrix, physical properties, physicochemical characteristics, conservation score and protein coding were used to represent a residue. Using this method, predictive values of continuous relative solvent-accessible area were obtained, and then, these values were transformed into binary states with predefined thresholds. Our experimental results showed that our deep learning method improved prediction quality relative to current methods, with mean absolute error and Pearson's correlation coefficient values of 8.8% and 74.8%, respectively, on the CB502 dataset and 8.2% and 78%, respectively, on the Manesh215 dataset.

Modeling the Malaysian motor insurance claim using artificial neural network and adaptive NeuroFuzzy inference system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohd Yunos, Zuriahati; Shamsuddin, Siti Mariyam; Ismail, Noriszura; Sallehuddin, Roselina

2013-04-01

Artificial neural network (ANN) with back propagation algorithm (BP) and ANFIS was chosen as an alternative technique in modeling motor insurance claims. In particular, an ANN and ANFIS technique is applied to model and forecast the Malaysian motor insurance data which is categorized into four claim types; third party property damage (TPPD), third party bodily injury (TPBI), own damage (OD) and theft. This study is to determine whether an ANN and ANFIS model is capable of accurately predicting motor insurance claim. There were changes made to the network structure as the number of input nodes, number of hidden nodes and pre-processing techniques are also examined and a cross-validation technique is used to improve the generalization ability of ANN and ANFIS models. Based on the empirical studies, the prediction performance of the ANN and ANFIS model is improved by using different number of input nodes and hidden nodes; and also various sizes of data. The experimental results reveal that the ANFIS model has outperformed the ANN model. Both models are capable of producing a reliable prediction for the Malaysian motor insurance claims and hence, the proposed method can be applied as an alternative to predict claim frequency and claim severity.

Moisture ingress prediction in polyisobutylene-based edge seal with molecular sieve desiccant

DOE PAGES

Kempe, Michael D.; Nobles, Dylan L.; Postak, Lori; ...

2017-10-26

Often photovoltaic modules are constructed with materials that are sensitive to water. This is most often the case with thin film technologies, including perovskite cells, where the active layers are a few microns thick and can be sensitive to moisture, liquid water or both. When moisture or liquid water can ingress, a small amount of water can lead to corrosion and depending on the resulting reactions, a larger local detrimental effect is possible. To prevent moisture from contacting photovoltaic components, impermeable frontsheets and backsheets are used with a polyisobutylene (PIB)-based edge seal material around the perimeter. Here, we evaluate themore » ability of a PIB-based edge seal using a molecular sieve desiccant to keep moisture out for the expected module lifetime. Moisture ingress is evaluated using test coupons where the edge seal is placed between 2 pieces of glass, one of which has a metallic calcium film on it, and monitoring the moisture ingress distance as a function of time. We expose samples to different temperature and humidity conditions to create permeation models useful for extrapolation to field use. This extrapolation indicates that this PIB material is capable of keeping moisture out of a module for the desired lifetime.« less

Moisture ingress prediction in polyisobutylene-based edge seal with molecular sieve desiccant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kempe, Michael D.; Nobles, Dylan L.; Postak, Lori

Often photovoltaic modules are constructed with materials that are sensitive to water. This is most often the case with thin film technologies, including perovskite cells, where the active layers are a few microns thick and can be sensitive to moisture, liquid water or both. When moisture or liquid water can ingress, a small amount of water can lead to corrosion and depending on the resulting reactions, a larger local detrimental effect is possible. To prevent moisture from contacting photovoltaic components, impermeable frontsheets and backsheets are used with a polyisobutylene (PIB)-based edge seal material around the perimeter. Here, we evaluate themore » ability of a PIB-based edge seal using a molecular sieve desiccant to keep moisture out for the expected module lifetime. Moisture ingress is evaluated using test coupons where the edge seal is placed between 2 pieces of glass, one of which has a metallic calcium film on it, and monitoring the moisture ingress distance as a function of time. We expose samples to different temperature and humidity conditions to create permeation models useful for extrapolation to field use. This extrapolation indicates that this PIB material is capable of keeping moisture out of a module for the desired lifetime.« less

An Overview of Production and Validation of the SMAP Passive Soil Moisture Product

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chan, S.; O'Neill, P.; Njoku, E.; Jackson, T.; Bindlish, R.

2015-01-01

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission is an L-band mission scheduled for launch in Jan. 2015. The SMAP instruments consist of a radar and a radiometer to obtain complementary information from space for soil moisture and freeze/thaw state research and applications. By utilizing novel designs in antenna construction, retrieval algorithms, and acquisition hardware, SMAP provides a capability for global mapping of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state with unprecedented accuracy, resolution, and coverage. This improvement in hydrosphere state measurement is expected to advance our understanding of the processes that link the terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, improve our capability in flood prediction and drought monitoring, and enhance our skills in weather and climate forecast. For swath-based soil moisture measurement, SMAP generates three operational geophysical data products: (1) the radiometer-only soil moisture product (L2_SM_P) posted at 36-kilometer resolution, (2) the radar-only soil moisture product (L2_SM_A) posted at 3-kilometers resolution, and (3) the radar-radiometer combined soil moisture product (L2_SM_AP) posted at 9-kilometers resolution. Each product draws on the strengths of the underlying sensor(s) and plays a unique role in hydroclimatological and hydrometeorological applications. A full suite of SMAP data products is given in Table 1.

Dynamics of Weeds in the Soil Seed Bank: A Hidden Markov Model to Estimate Life History Traits from Standing Plant Time Series.

PubMed

Borgy, Benjamin; Reboud, Xavier; Peyrard, Nathalie; Sabbadin, Régis; Gaba, Sabrina

2015-01-01

Predicting the population dynamics of annual plants is a challenge due to their hidden seed banks in the field. However, such predictions are highly valuable for determining management strategies, specifically in agricultural landscapes. In agroecosystems, most weed seeds survive during unfavourable seasons and persist for several years in the seed bank. This causes difficulties in making accurate predictions of weed population dynamics and life history traits (LHT). Consequently, it is very difficult to identify management strategies that limit both weed populations and species diversity. In this article, we present a method of assessing weed population dynamics from both standing plant time series data and an unknown seed bank. We use a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to obtain estimates of over 3,080 botanical records for three major LHT: seed survival in the soil, plant establishment (including post-emergence mortality), and seed production of 18 common weed species. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches were complementarily used to estimate LHT values. The results showed that the LHT provided by the HMM enabled fairly accurate estimates of weed populations in different crops. There was a positive correlation between estimated germination rates and an index of the specialisation to the crop type (IndVal). The relationships between estimated LHTs and that between the estimated LHTs and the ecological characteristics of weeds provided insights into weed strategies. For example, a common strategy to cope with agricultural practices in several weeds was to produce less seeds and increase germination rates. This knowledge, especially of LHT for each type of crop, should provide valuable information for developing sustainable weed management strategies.

Dynamics of Weeds in the Soil Seed Bank: A Hidden Markov Model to Estimate Life History Traits from Standing Plant Time Series

PubMed Central

Borgy, Benjamin; Reboud, Xavier; Peyrard, Nathalie; Sabbadin, Régis; Gaba, Sabrina

2015-01-01

Predicting the population dynamics of annual plants is a challenge due to their hidden seed banks in the field. However, such predictions are highly valuable for determining management strategies, specifically in agricultural landscapes. In agroecosystems, most weed seeds survive during unfavourable seasons and persist for several years in the seed bank. This causes difficulties in making accurate predictions of weed population dynamics and life history traits (LHT). Consequently, it is very difficult to identify management strategies that limit both weed populations and species diversity. In this article, we present a method of assessing weed population dynamics from both standing plant time series data and an unknown seed bank. We use a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to obtain estimates of over 3,080 botanical records for three major LHT: seed survival in the soil, plant establishment (including post-emergence mortality), and seed production of 18 common weed species. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches were complementarily used to estimate LHT values. The results showed that the LHT provided by the HMM enabled fairly accurate estimates of weed populations in different crops. There was a positive correlation between estimated germination rates and an index of the specialisation to the crop type (IndVal). The relationships between estimated LHTs and that between the estimated LHTs and the ecological characteristics of weeds provided insights into weed strategies. For example, a common strategy to cope with agricultural practices in several weeds was to produce less seeds and increase germination rates. This knowledge, especially of LHT for each type of crop, should provide valuable information for developing sustainable weed management strategies. PMID:26427023

A radiative transfer model for microwave emissions from bare agricultural soils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burke, W. J.; Paris, J. F.

1975-01-01

A radiative transfer model for microwave emissions from bare, stratified agricultural soils was developed to assist in the analysis of data gathered in the joint soil moisture experiment. The predictions of the model were compared with preliminary X band (2.8 cm) microwave and ground based observations. Measured brightness temperatures at vertical and horizontal polarizations can be used to estimate the moisture content of the top centimeter of soil with + or - 1 percent accuracy. It is also shown that the Stokes parameters can be used to distinguish between moisture and surface roughness effects.

Alkyl Glucosides in Contact Dermatitis.

PubMed

Loranger, Camille; Alfalah, Maisa; Ferrier Le Bouedec, Marie-Christine; Sasseville, Denis

Ecologically sound because they are synthesized from natural and renewable sources, the mild surfactants alkyl glucosides are being rediscovered by the cosmetic industry. They are currently found in rinse-off products such as shampoos, liquid cleansers, and shower gels, but also in leave-on products that include moisturizers, deodorants, and sunscreens. During the past 15 years, numerous cases of allergic contact dermatitis have been published, mostly to lauryl and decyl glucosides, and these compounds are considered emergent allergens. Interestingly, the sunscreen Tinosorb M contains decyl glucoside as a hidden allergen, and most cases of allergic contact dermatitis reported to this sunscreen ingredient are probably due to sensitization to decyl glucoside. This article will review the chemistry of alkyl glucosides, their sources of exposure, as well as their cutaneous adverse effects reported in the literature and encountered in various patch testing centers.

[Detecting the moisture content of forest surface soil based on the microwave remote sensing technology.

PubMed

Li, Ming Ze; Gao, Yuan Ke; Di, Xue Ying; Fan, Wen Yi

2016-03-01

The moisture content of forest surface soil is an important parameter in forest ecosystems. It is practically significant for forest ecosystem related research to use microwave remote sensing technology for rapid and accurate estimation of the moisture content of forest surface soil. With the aid of TDR-300 soil moisture content measuring instrument, the moisture contents of forest surface soils of 120 sample plots at Tahe Forestry Bureau of Daxing'anling region in Heilongjiang Province were measured. Taking the moisture content of forest surface soil as the dependent variable and the polarization decomposition parameters of C band Quad-pol SAR data as independent variables, two types of quantitative estimation models (multilinear regression model and BP-neural network model) for predicting moisture content of forest surface soils were developed. The spatial distribution of moisture content of forest surface soil on the regional scale was then derived with model inversion. Results showed that the model precision was 86.0% and 89.4% with RMSE of 3.0% and 2.7% for the multilinear regression model and the BP-neural network model, respectively. It indicated that the BP-neural network model had a better performance than the multilinear regression model in quantitative estimation of the moisture content of forest surface soil. The spatial distribution of forest surface soil moisture content in the study area was then obtained by using the BP neural network model simulation with the Quad-pol SAR data.

Measuring spatial and temporal variation in surface moisture on a coastal beach with a near-infrared terrestrial laser scanner

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smit, Yvonne; Ruessink, Gerben; Brakenhoff, Laura B.; Donker, Jasper J. A.

2018-04-01

Wind-alone predictions of aeolian sand deposition on the most seaward coastal dune ridge often exceed measured deposition substantially. Surface moisture is a major factor limiting aeolian transport on sandy beaches, but existing measurement techniques cannot adequately characterize the spatial and temporal distribution of surface moisture content. Here, we present a new method for detecting surface moisture at high temporal and spatial resolution using a near-infrared terrestrial laser scanner (TLS), the RIEGL VZ-400. Because this TLS operates at a wavelength (1550 nm) near a water absorption band, TLS reflectance is an accurate parameter to measure surface moisture over its full range. Five days of intensive laser scanning were performed on a Dutch beach to illustrate the applicability of the TLS. Gravimetric surface moisture samples were used to calibrate the relation between reflectance and surface moisture. Results reveal a robust negative relation for the full range of possible surface moisture contents (0%-25%), with a correlation-coefficient squared of 0.85 and a root-mean-square error of 2.7%. This relation holds between 20 and 60 m from the TLS. Within this distance the TLS typically produces O (106-107) data points, which we averaged into surface moisture maps with a 1 × 1 m resolution. This grid size largely removes small reflectance disturbances induced by, for example, footprints or tire tracks, while retaining larger scale moisture trends.

Predicting guar seed splitting by compression between two plates using Hertz theory of contact stresses.

PubMed

Vishwakarma, R K; Shivhare, U S; Nanda, S K

2012-09-01

Hertz's theory of contact stresses was applied to predict the splitting of guar seeds during uni-axial compressive loading between 2 rigid parallel plates. The apparent modulus of elasticity of guar seeds varied between 296.18 and 116.19 MPa when force was applied normal to hilum joint (horizontal position), whereas it varied between 171.86 and 54.18 MPa when force was applied in the direction of hilum joint (vertical position) with in moisture content range of 5.16% to 15.28% (d.b.). At higher moisture contents, the seeds yielded after considerable deformation, thus showing ductile nature. Distribution of stresses below the point of contact were plotted to predict the location of critical point, which was found at 0.44 to 0.64 mm and 0.37 to 0.53 mm below the contact point in vertical and horizontal loading, respectively, depending upon moisture content. The separation of cotyledons from each other initiated before yielding of cotyledons and thus splitting of seed took place. The relationships between apparent modulus of elasticity, principal stresses with moisture content were described using second-order polynomial equations and validated experimentally. Manufacture of guar gum powder requires dehulling and splitting of guar seeds. This article describes splitting behavior of guar seeds under compressive loading. Results of this study may be used for design of dehulling and splitting systems of guar seeds. © 2012 Institute of Food Technologists®

Evaluation of a Soil Moisture Data Assimilation System Over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolten, J. D.; Crow, W.; Zhan, X.; Jackson, T.; Reynolds, C.

2009-05-01

A crucial requirement of global crop yield forecasts by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) International Production Assessment Division (IPAD) is the regional characterization of surface and sub-surface soil moisture. However, due to the spatial heterogeneity and dynamic nature of precipitation events and resulting soil moisture, accurate estimation of regional land surface-atmosphere interactions based sparse ground measurements is difficult. IPAD estimates global soil moisture using daily estimates of minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation applied to a modified Palmer two-layer soil moisture model which calculates the daily amount of soil moisture withdrawn by evapotranspiration and replenished by precipitation. We attempt to improve upon the existing system by applying an Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system to integrate surface soil moisture retrievals from the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) into the USDA soil moisture model. This work aims at evaluating the utility of merging satellite-retrieved soil moisture estimates with the IPAD two-layer soil moisture model used within the DBMS. We present a quantitative analysis of the assimilated soil moisture product over West Africa (9°N- 20°N; 20°W-20°E). This region contains many key agricultural areas and has a high agro- meteorological gradient from desert and semi-arid vegetation in the North, to grassland, trees and crops in the South, thus providing an ideal location for evaluating the assimilated soil moisture product over multiple land cover types and conditions. A data denial experimental approach is utilized to isolate the added utility of integrating remotely-sensed soil moisture by comparing assimilated soil moisture results obtained using (relatively) low-quality precipitation products obtained from real-time satellite imagery to baseline model runs forced with higher quality rainfall. An analysis of root-zone anomalies for each model simulation suggests that the assimilation of AMSR-E surface soil moisture retrievals can add significant value to USDA root-zone predictions derived from real-time satellite precipitation products.

Impact of SMOS soil moisture data assimilation on NCEP-GFS forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, X.; Zheng, W.; Meng, J.; Dong, J.; Ek, M.

2012-04-01

Soil moisture is one of the few critical land surface state variables that have long memory to impact the exchanges of water, energy and carbon between the land surface and atmosphere. Accurate information about soil moisture status is thus required for numerical weather, seasonal climate and hydrological forecast as well as for agricultural production forecasts, water management and many other water related economic or social activities. Since the successful launch of ESA's soil moisture ocean salinity (SMOS) mission in November 2009, about 2 years of soil moisture retrievals has been collected. SMOS is believed to be the currently best satellite sensors for soil moisture remote sensing. Therefore, it becomes interesting to examine how the collected SMOS soil moisture data are compared with other satellite-sensed soil moisture retrievals (such as NASA's Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer -AMSR-E and EUMETSAT's Advanced Scatterometer - ASCAT)), in situ soil moisture measurements, and how these data sets impact numerical weather prediction models such as the Global Forecast System of NOAA-NCEP. This study implements the Ensemble Kalman filter in GFS to assimilate the AMSR-E, ASCAT and SMOS soil moisture observations after a quantitative assessment of their error rate based on in situ measurements from ground networks around contiguous United States. in situ soil moisture measurements from ground networks (such as USDA Soil Climate Analysis network - SCAN and NOAA's U.S. Climate Reference Network -USCRN) are used to evaluate the GFS soil moisture simulations (analysis). The benefits and uncertainties of assimilating the satellite data products in GFS are examined by comparing the GFS forecasts of surface temperature and rainfall with and without the assimilations. From these examinations, the advantages of SMOS soil moisture data products over other satellite soil moisture data sets will be evaluated. The next step toward operationally assimilating soil moisture and other land observations into GFS will also be discussed.

Remote Sensing of Soil Moisture: A Comparison of Optical and Thermal Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foroughi, H.; Naseri, A. A.; Boroomandnasab, S.; Sadeghi, M.; Jones, S. B.; Tuller, M.; Babaeian, E.

2017-12-01

Recent technological advances in satellite and airborne remote sensing have provided new means for large-scale soil moisture monitoring. Traditional methods for soil moisture retrieval require thermal and optical RS observations. In this study we compared the traditional trapezoid model parameterized based on the land surface temperature - normalized difference vegetation index (LST-NDVI) space with the recently developed optical trapezoid model OPTRAM parameterized based on the shortwave infrared transformed reflectance (STR)-NDVI space for an extensive sugarcane field located in Southwestern Iran. Twelve Landsat-8 satellite images were acquired during the sugarcane growth season (April to October 2016). Reference in situ soil moisture data were obtained at 22 locations at different depths via core sampling and oven-drying. The obtained results indicate that the thermal/optical and optical prediction methods are comparable, both with volumetric moisture content estimation errors of about 0.04 cm3 cm-3. However, the OPTRAM model is more efficient because it does not require thermal data and can be universally parameterized for a specific location, because unlike the LST-soil moisture relationship, the reflectance-soil moisture relationship does not significantly vary with environmental variables (e.g., air temperature, wind speed, etc.).

Historical climate controls soil respiration responses to current soil moisture.

PubMed

Hawkes, Christine V; Waring, Bonnie G; Rocca, Jennifer D; Kivlin, Stephanie N

2017-06-13

Ecosystem carbon losses from soil microbial respiration are a key component of global carbon cycling, resulting in the transfer of 40-70 Pg carbon from soil to the atmosphere each year. Because these microbial processes can feed back to climate change, understanding respiration responses to environmental factors is necessary for improved projections. We focus on respiration responses to soil moisture, which remain unresolved in ecosystem models. A common assumption of large-scale models is that soil microorganisms respond to moisture in the same way, regardless of location or climate. Here, we show that soil respiration is constrained by historical climate. We find that historical rainfall controls both the moisture dependence and sensitivity of respiration. Moisture sensitivity, defined as the slope of respiration vs. moisture, increased fourfold across a 480-mm rainfall gradient, resulting in twofold greater carbon loss on average in historically wetter soils compared with historically drier soils. The respiration-moisture relationship was resistant to environmental change in field common gardens and field rainfall manipulations, supporting a persistent effect of historical climate on microbial respiration. Based on these results, predicting future carbon cycling with climate change will require an understanding of the spatial variation and temporal lags in microbial responses created by historical rainfall.

Changing amounts and sources of moisture in the U.S. southwest since the Last Glacial Maximum in response to global climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feng, Weimin; Hardt, Benjamin F.; Banner, Jay L.; Meyer, Kevin J.; James, Eric W.; Musgrove, MaryLynn; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Cheng, Hai; Min, Angela

2014-01-01

The U.S. southwest has a limited water supply and is predicted to become drier in the 21st century. An improved understanding of factors controlling moisture sources and availability is aided by reconstruction of past responses to global climate change. New stable isotope and growth-rate records for a central Texas speleothem indicate a strong influence of Gulf of Mexico (GoM) moisture and increased precipitation from 15.5 to 13.5 ka, which includes the majority of the Bølling–Allerød warming (BA: 14.7–12.9 ka). Coeval speleothem records from 900 and 1200 km to the west allow reconstruction of regional moisture sources and atmospheric circulation. The combined isotope and growth-rate time series indicates 1) increased GoM moisture input during the majority of the BA, producing greater precipitation in Texas and New Mexico; and 2) a retreat of GoM moisture during Younger Dryas cooling (12.9–11.5 ka), reducing precipitation. These results portray how late-Pleistocene atmospheric circulation and moisture distribution in this region responded to global changes, providing information to improve models of future climate.

Generation of a Realistic Soil Moisture Initialization System and its Potential Impact on Short-to-Seasonal Forecasting of Near Surface Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boisserie, M.; Cocke, S.; O'Brien, J. J.

2009-12-01

Although the amount of water contained in the soil seems insignificant when compared to the total amount of water on a global-scale, soil moisture is widely recognized as a crucial variable for climate studies. It plays a key role in regulating the interaction between the atmosphere and the land-surface by controlling the repartition between the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. In addition, the persistence of soil moisture anomalies provides one of the most important components of memory for the climate system. Several studies have shown that, during the boreal summer in mid-latitudes, the soil moisture role in controlling the continental precipitation variability may be more important than that of the sea surface temperature (Koster et al. 2000, Hong and Kalnay 2000, Koster et al. 2000, Kumar and Hoerling 1995, Trenberth et al. 1998, Shukla 1998). Although all of the above studies have demonstrated the strong sensitivity of seasonal forecasts to the soil moisture initial conditions, they relied on extreme or idealized soil moisture levels. The question of whether realistic soil moisture initial conditions lead to improved seasonal predictions has not been adequately addressed. Progress in addressing this question has been hampered by the lack of long-term reliable observation-based global soil moisture data sets. Since precipitation strongly affects the soil moisture characteristics at the surface and in depth, an alternative to this issue is to assimilate precipitation. Because precipitation is a diagnostic variable, most of the current reanalyses do not directly assimilate it into their models (M. Bosilovitch, 2008). In this study, an effective technique that directly assimilates the precipitation is used. We examine two experiments. In the first experiment, the model is initialized by directly assimilating a global, 3-hourly, 1.0° precipitation dataset, provided by Sheffield et al. (2006), in a continuous assimilation period of a couple of months. For this, we use a technique named the Precipitation Assimilation Reanalysis (PAR) described in Nunes and Cocke (2004). This technique consists of modifying the vertical profile of humidity as a function of the observed and predicted model rain rates. In the second experiment, the model is initialized without precipitation assimilation. For each experiment, ten sets of seasonal forecasts of the coupled land-atmosphere Florida State University/Center for Ocean and Atmosphere Predictions Studies (FSU/COAPS) model were generated, starting from the boreal summer of each year between 1986 and 1995. For each forecast, ten ensembles are produced by starting the forecast from the 1st and the 15th of each month from April to August. The results of these experiments show, first, that the PAR technique greatly improves the temporal and spatial variability of out model soil moisture estimate. Second, using these realistic soil moisture initial conditions, we found a significant increase in the air temperature seasonal forecasting skills. However, not significant increase has been found in the precipitation seasonal forecasting skills. The results of this study are involved in the GLACE-2 international multi-model experiment.

The effect of physical parameterizations and initial data on the numerical prediction of the President's Day cyclone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, R.

1984-01-01

Results are presented from a series of forecast experiments which were conducted to assess the importance of large-scale dynamical processes, diabatic heating, and initial data to the prediction of the President's Day cyclone. The synoptic situation and NMC model forecasts for this case are summarized, and the analysis/forecast system and experiments are described. The GLAS Model forecast from the GLAS analysis at 0000 GMT 18 February is found to have correctly predicted intense coastal cyclogenesis and heavy precipitation. A forecast with surface heat and moisture fluxes eliminated failed to predict any cyclogenesis while a similar forecast with only the surface moisture flux excluded showed weak development. Diabatic heating resulting from oceanic fluxes significantly contributed to the generation of low-level cyclonic vorticity and the intensification and slow rate of movement of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic.

The SWEX at the area of Eastern Poland: Comparison of soil moisture obtained from ground measurements and SMOS satellite data*

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usowicz, J. B.; Marczewski, W.; Usowicz, B.; Lukowski, M. I.; Lipiec, J.; Slominski, J.

2012-04-01

Soil moisture, together with soil and vegetation characteristics, plays an important role in exchange of water and energy between the land surface and the atmospheric boundary layer. Accurate knowledge of current and future spatial and temporal variation in soil moisture is not well known, nor easy to measure or predict. Knowledge of soil moisture in surface and root zone soil moisture is critical for achieving sustainable land and water management. The importance of SM is so high that this ECV is recommended by GCOS (Global Climate Observing System) to any attempts of evaluating of effects the climate change, and therefore it is one of the goals for observing the Earth by the ESA SMOS Mission (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity), globally. SMOS provides its observations by means of the interferometric radiometry method (1.4 GHz) from the orbit. In parallel, ten ground based stations are kept by IA PAN, in area of the Eastern Wall in Poland, in order to validate SMOS data and for other ground based agrophysical purposes. Soil moisture measurements obtained from ground and satellite measurements from SMOS were compared using Bland-Altman method of agreement, concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) and total deviation index (TDI). Observed similar changes in soil moisture, but the values obtained from satellite measurements were lower. Minor differences between the compared data are at higher moisture contents of soil and they grow with decreasing soil moisture. Soil moisture trends are maintained in the individual stations. Such distributions of soil moisture were mainly related to soil type. * The work was financially supported in part by the ESA Programme for European Cooperating States (PECS), No.98084 "SWEX-R, Soil Water and Energy Exchange/Research", AO3275.

Is soil moisture initialization important for seasonal to decadal predictions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

2014-05-01

The state of soil moisture can can have a significant impact on regional climate conditions for short time scales up to several months. However, focusing on seasonal to decadal time scales, it is not clear whether the predictive skill of global a Earth System Model might be enhanced by assimilating soil moisture data or improving the initial soil moisture conditions with respect to observations. As a first attempt to provide answers to this question, we set up an experiment to investigate the life time (memory) of extreme soil moisture states in the coupled land-atmosphere model ECHAM6-JSBACH, which is part of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). This experiment consists of an ensemble of 3 years simulations which are initialized with extreme wet and dry soil moisture states for different seasons and years. Instead of using common thresholds like wilting point or critical soil moisture, the extreme states were extracted from a reference simulation to ensure that they are within the range of simulated climate variability. As a prerequisite for this experiment, the soil hydrology in JSBACH was improved by replacing the bucket-type soil hydrology scheme with a multi-layer scheme. This new scheme is a more realistic representation of the soil, including percolation and diffusion fluxes between up to five separate layers, the limitation of bare soil evaporation to the uppermost soil layer and the addition of a long term water storage below the root zone in regions with deep soil. While the hydrological cycle is not strongly affected by this new scheme, it has some impact on the simulated soil moisture memory which is mostly strengthened due to the additional deep layer water storage. Ensemble statistics of the initialization experiment indicate perturbation lengths between just a few days up to several seasons for some regions. In general, the strongest effects are seen for wet initialization during northern winter over cold and humid regions, while the shortest memory is found during northern spring. For most regions, the soil moisture memory is either sensitive to wet or to dry perturbations, indicating that soil moisture anomalies interact with the respective weather pattern for a given year and might be able to enhance or dampen extreme conditions. To further investigate this effect, the simulations will be repeated using JSBACH with prescribed meteorological forcing to better disentangle the direct effects of soil moisture initialization and the atmospheric response.

Evaluation of different approaches for identifying optimal sites to predict mean hillslope soil moisture content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Kaihua; Zhou, Zhiwen; Lai, Xiaoming; Zhu, Qing; Feng, Huihui

2017-04-01

The identification of representative soil moisture sampling sites is important for the validation of remotely sensed mean soil moisture in a certain area and ground-based soil moisture measurements in catchment or hillslope hydrological studies. Numerous approaches have been developed to identify optimal sites for predicting mean soil moisture. Each method has certain advantages and disadvantages, but they have rarely been evaluated and compared. In our study, surface (0-20 cm) soil moisture data from January 2013 to March 2016 (a total of 43 sampling days) were collected at 77 sampling sites on a mixed land-use (tea and bamboo) hillslope in the hilly area of Taihu Lake Basin, China. A total of 10 methods (temporal stability (TS) analyses based on 2 indices, K-means clustering based on 6 kinds of inputs and 2 random sampling strategies) were evaluated for determining optimal sampling sites for mean soil moisture estimation. They were TS analyses based on the smallest index of temporal stability (ITS, a combination of the mean relative difference and standard deviation of relative difference (SDRD)) and based on the smallest SDRD, K-means clustering based on soil properties and terrain indices (EFs), repeated soil moisture measurements (Theta), EFs plus one-time soil moisture data (EFsTheta), and the principal components derived from EFs (EFs-PCA), Theta (Theta-PCA), and EFsTheta (EFsTheta-PCA), and global and stratified random sampling strategies. Results showed that the TS based on the smallest ITS was better (RMSE = 0.023 m3 m-3) than that based on the smallest SDRD (RMSE = 0.034 m3 m-3). The K-means clustering based on EFsTheta (-PCA) was better (RMSE <0.020 m3 m-3) than these based on EFs (-PCA) and Theta (-PCA). The sampling design stratified by the land use was more efficient than the global random method. Forty and 60 sampling sites are needed for stratified sampling and global sampling respectively to make their performances comparable to the best K-means method (EFsTheta-PCA). Overall, TS required only one site, but its accuracy was limited. The best K-means method required <8 sites and yielded high accuracy, but extra soil and terrain information is necessary when using this method. The stratified sampling strategy can only be used if no pre-knowledge about soil moisture variation is available. This information will help in selecting the optimal methods for estimation the area mean soil moisture.

Scalar Hidden-Charm Tetraquark States with QCD Sum Rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di, Zun-Yan; Wang, Zhi-Gang; Zhang, Jun-Xia; Yu, Guo-Liang

2018-02-01

In this article, we study the masses and pole residues of the pseudoscalar-diquark-pseudoscalar-antidiquark type and vector-diquark-vector-antidiquark type scalar hidden-charm cu\\bar{c}\\bar{d} (cu\\bar{c}\\bar{s}) tetraquark states with QCD sum rules by taking into account the contributions of the vacuum condensates up to dimension-10 in the operator product expansion. The predicted masses can be confronted with the experimental data in the future. Possible decays of those tetraquark states are also discussed. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 11375063, the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant Nos. 2016MS155 and 2016MS133

Efficient and accurate causal inference with hidden confounders from genome-transcriptome variation data

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Mapping gene expression as a quantitative trait using whole genome-sequencing and transcriptome analysis allows to discover the functional consequences of genetic variation. We developed a novel method and ultra-fast software Findr for higly accurate causal inference between gene expression traits using cis-regulatory DNA variations as causal anchors, which improves current methods by taking into consideration hidden confounders and weak regulations. Findr outperformed existing methods on the DREAM5 Systems Genetics challenge and on the prediction of microRNA and transcription factor targets in human lymphoblastoid cells, while being nearly a million times faster. Findr is publicly available at https://github.com/lingfeiwang/findr. PMID:28821014

Smart aircraft fastener evaluation (SAFE) system: a condition-based corrosion detection system for aging aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoess, Jeffrey N.; Seifert, Greg; Paul, Clare A.

1996-05-01

The smart aircraft fastener evaluation (SAFE) system is an advanced structural health monitoring effort to detect and characterize corrosion in hidden and inaccessible locations of aircraft structures. Hidden corrosion is the number one logistics problem for the U.S. Air Force, with an estimated maintenance cost of $700M per year in 1990 dollars. The SAFE system incorporates a solid-state electrochemical microsensor and smart sensor electronics in the body of a Hi-Lok aircraft fastener to process and autonomously report corrosion status to aircraft maintenance personnel. The long-term payoff for using SAFE technology will be in predictive maintenance for aging aircraft and rotorcraft systems, fugitive emissions applications such as control valves, chemical pipeline vessels, and industrial boilers. Predictive maintenance capability, service, and repair will replace the current practice of scheduled maintenance to substantially reduce operational costs. A summary of the SAFE concept, laboratory test results, and future field test plans is presented.

Water underground

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, Inge

2015-04-01

The world's largest assessable source of freshwater is hidden underground, but we do not know what is happening to it yet. In many places of the world groundwater is abstracted at unsustainable rates: more water is used than being recharged, leading to decreasing river discharges and declining groundwater levels. It is predicted that for many regions of the world unsustainable water use will increase, due to increasing human water use under changing climate. It would not be long before shortage causes widespread droughts and the first water war begins. Improving our knowledge about our hidden water is the first step to stop this. The world largest aquifers are mapped, but these maps do not mention how much water they contain or how fast water levels decline. If we can add a third dimension to the aquifer maps, so a thickness, and add geohydrological information we can estimate how much water is stored. Also data on groundwater age and how fast it is refilled is needed to predict the impact of human water use and climate change on the groundwater resource.

Strong convective storm nowcasting using a hybrid approach of convolutional neural network and hidden Markov model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Jiang, Ling; Han, Lei

2018-04-01

Convective storm nowcasting refers to the prediction of the convective weather initiation, development, and decay in a very short term (typically 0 2 h) .Despite marked progress over the past years, severe convective storm nowcasting still remains a challenge. With the boom of machine learning, it has been well applied in various fields, especially convolutional neural network (CNN). In this paper, we build a servere convective weather nowcasting system based on CNN and hidden Markov model (HMM) using reanalysis meteorological data. The goal of convective storm nowcasting is to predict if there is a convective storm in 30min. In this paper, we compress the VDRAS reanalysis data to low-dimensional data by CNN as the observation vector of HMM, then obtain the development trend of strong convective weather in the form of time series. It shows that, our method can extract robust features without any artificial selection of features, and can capture the development trend of strong convective storm.

Integrating Decision Tree and Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for Subtype Prediction of Human Influenza A Virus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attaluri, Pavan K.; Chen, Zhengxin; Weerakoon, Aruna M.; Lu, Guoqing

Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) has significant impact in bioinformatics. In the research reported here, we explore the integration of decision tree (DT) and Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for subtype prediction of human influenza A virus. Infection with influenza viruses continues to be an important public health problem. Viral strains of subtype H3N2 and H1N1 circulates in humans at least twice annually. The subtype detection depends mainly on the antigenic assay, which is time-consuming and not fully accurate. We have developed a Web system for accurate subtype detection of human influenza virus sequences. The preliminary experiment showed that this system is easy-to-use and powerful in identifying human influenza subtypes. Our next step is to examine the informative positions at the protein level and extend its current functionality to detect more subtypes. The web functions can be accessed at http://glee.ist.unomaha.edu/.

Integration of GIS, Geostatistics, and 3-D Technology to Assess the Spatial Distribution of Soil Moisture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Betts, M.; Tsegaye, T.; Tadesse, W.; Coleman, T. L.; Fahsi, A.

1998-01-01

The spatial and temporal distribution of near surface soil moisture is of fundamental importance to many physical, biological, biogeochemical, and hydrological processes. However, knowledge of these space-time dynamics and the processes which control them remains unclear. The integration of geographic information systems (GIS) and geostatistics together promise a simple mechanism to evaluate and display the spatial and temporal distribution of this vital hydrologic and physical variable. Therefore, this research demonstrates the use of geostatistics and GIS to predict and display soil moisture distribution under vegetated and non-vegetated plots. The research was conducted at the Winfred Thomas Agricultural Experiment Station (WTAES), Hazel Green, Alabama. Soil moisture measurement were done on a 10 by 10 m grid from tall fescue grass (GR), alfalfa (AA), bare rough (BR), and bare smooth (BS) plots. Results indicated that variance associated with soil moisture was higher for vegetated plots than non-vegetated plots. The presence of vegetation in general contributed to the spatial variability of soil moisture. Integration of geostatistics and GIS can improve the productivity of farm lands and the precision of farming.

A review of heat transfer phenomena and the impact of moisture on firefighters' clothing and protection.

PubMed

Morel, Aude; Bedek, Gauthier; Salaün, Fabien; Dupont, Daniel

2014-01-01

Protective clothing with high insulation properties helps to keep the wearer safe from flames and other types of hazards. Such protection presents some drawbacks since it hinders movement and decreases comfort, in particular due to heat stress. In fact, sweating causes the accumulation of moisture which directly influences firefighters' performance, decreasing protection due to the increase in radiant heat flux. Vaporisation and condensation of hot moisture also induces skin burn. To evaluate the heat protection of protective clothing, Henrique's equation is used to predict the time leading to second-degree burn. The influence of moisture on protection is complex, i.e., at low radiant heat flux, an increase in moisture content increases protection, and also changes thermal properties. Better understanding of heat and mass transfer in protective clothing is required to develop enhanced protection and to prevent burn injuries. This paper aims to contribute to a better understanding of heat and mass transfer inside firefighters' protective clothing to enhance safety. The focus is on the influence of moisture content and the prevention of steam burn.

New DEMs may stimulate significant advancements in remote sensing of soil moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolan, Matt; Fatland, Dennis R.

From Napoleon's defeat at Waterloo to increasing corn yields in Kansas to greenhouse gas flux in the Arctic, the importance of soil moisture is endemic to world affairs and merits the considerable attention it receives from the scientific community. This importance can hardly be overstated, though it often goes unstated.Soil moisture is one of the key variables in a variety of broad areas critical to the conduct of societies' economic and political affairs and their well-being; these include the health of agricultural crops, global climate dynamics, military trafficability planning, and hazards such as flooding and forest fires. Unfortunately the in situ measurement of the spatial distribution of soil moisture on a watershed-scale is practically impossible. And despite decades of international effort, a satellite remote sensing technique that can reliably measure soil moisture with a spatial resolution of meters has not yet been identified or implemented. Due to the lack of suitable measurement techniques and, until recently digital elevation models (DEMs), our ability to understand and predict soil moisture dynamics through modeling has largely remained crippled from birth [Grayson and Bloschl, 200l].

Uncertainty in Ecohydrological Modeling in an Arid Region Determined with Bayesian Methods

PubMed Central

Yang, Junjun; He, Zhibin; Du, Jun; Chen, Longfei; Zhu, Xi

2016-01-01

In arid regions, water resources are a key forcing factor in ecosystem circulation, and soil moisture is the critical link that constrains plant and animal life on the soil surface and underground. Simulation of soil moisture in arid ecosystems is inherently difficult due to high variability. We assessed the applicability of the process-oriented CoupModel for forecasting of soil water relations in arid regions. We used vertical soil moisture profiling for model calibration. We determined that model-structural uncertainty constituted the largest error; the model did not capture the extremes of low soil moisture in the desert-oasis ecotone (DOE), particularly below 40 cm soil depth. Our results showed that total uncertainty in soil moisture prediction was improved when input and output data, parameter value array, and structure errors were characterized explicitly. Bayesian analysis was applied with prior information to reduce uncertainty. The need to provide independent descriptions of uncertainty analysis (UA) in the input and output data was demonstrated. Application of soil moisture simulation in arid regions will be useful for dune-stabilization and revegetation efforts in the DOE. PMID:26963523

Optimization of chip size and moisture content to obtain high, combined sugar recovery after sulfur dioxide-catalyzed steam pretreatment of softwood and enzymatic hydrolysis of the cellulosic component.

PubMed

Olsen, Colin; Arantes, Valdeir; Saddler, Jack

2015-01-01

The influence of chip size and moisture content on the combined sugar recovery after steam pretreatment of lodgepole pine and subsequent enzymatic hydrolysis of the cellulosic component were investigated using response surface methodology. Chip size had little influence on sugar recovery after both steam pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis. In contrast, the moisture of the chips greatly influenced the relative severity of steam pretreatment and, as a result, the combined sugar recovery from the hemicellulosic and cellulosic fractions. Irrespective of chip size and the pretreatment temperature, time, and SO2 loading that were used, the relative severity of pretreatment was highest at a moisture of 30-40w/w%. However, the predictive model indicated that an elevated moisture content of roughly 50w/w% (about the moisture content of a standard softwood mill chip) would result in the highest, combined sugar recovery (80%) over the widest range of steam pretreatment conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) for on-line determination of quality parameters in intact olives.

PubMed

Salguero-Chaparro, Lourdes; Baeten, Vincent; Fernández-Pierna, Juan A; Peña-Rodríguez, Francisco

2013-08-15

The acidity, moisture and fat content in intact olive fruits were determined on-line using a NIR diode array instrument, operating on a conveyor belt. Four sets of calibrations models were obtained by means of different combinations from samples collected during 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, using full-cross and external validation. Several preprocessing treatments such as derivatives and scatter correction were investigated by using the root mean square error of cross-validation (RMSECV) and prediction (RMSEP), as control parameters. The results obtained showed RMSECV values of 2.54-3.26 for moisture, 2.35-2.71 for fat content and 2.50-3.26 for acidity parameters, depending on the calibration model developed. Calibrations for moisture, fat content and acidity gave residual predictive deviation (RPD) values of 2.76, 2.37 and 1.60, respectively. Although, it is concluded that the on-line NIRS prediction results were acceptable for the three parameters measured in intact olive samples in movement, the models developed must be improved in order to increase their accuracy before final NIRS implementation at mills. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High resolution change estimation of soil moisture and its assimilation into a land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narayan, Ujjwal

Near surface soil moisture plays an important role in hydrological processes including infiltration, evapotranspiration and runoff. These processes depend non-linearly on soil moisture and hence sub-pixel scale soil moisture variability characterization is important for accurate modeling of water and energy fluxes at the pixel scale. Microwave remote sensing has evolved as an attractive technique for global monitoring of near surface soil moisture. A radiative transfer model has been tested and validated for soil moisture retrieval from passive microwave remote sensing data under a full range of vegetation water content conditions. It was demonstrated that soil moisture retrieval errors of approximately 0.04 g/g gravimetric soil moisture are attainable with vegetation water content as high as 5 kg/m2. Recognizing the limitation of low spatial resolution associated with passive sensors, an algorithm that uses low resolution passive microwave (radiometer) and high resolution active microwave (radar) data to estimate soil moisture change at the spatial resolution of radar operation has been developed and applied to coincident Passive and Active L and S band (PALS) and Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) datasets acquired during the Soil Moisture Experiments in 2002 (SMEX02) campaign with root mean square error of 10% and a 4 times enhancement in spatial resolution. The change estimation algorithm has also been used to estimate soil moisture change at 5 km resolution using AMSR-E soil moisture product (50 km) in conjunction with the TRMM-PR data (5 km) for a 3 month period demonstrating the possibility of high resolution soil moisture change estimation using satellite based data. Soil moisture change is closely related to precipitation and soil hydraulic properties. A simple assimilation framework has been implemented to investigate whether assimilation of surface layer soil moisture change observations into a hydrologic model will potentially improve it performance. Results indicate an improvement in model prediction of near surface and deep layer soil moisture content when the update is performed to the model state as compared to free model runs. It is also seen that soil moisture change assimilation is able to mitigate the effect of erroneous precipitation input data.

De-coupling seasonal changes in water content and dry matter to predict live conifer foliar moisture content

Treesearch

W. Matt Jolly; Ann M. Hadlow; Kathleen Huguet

2014-01-01

Live foliar moisture content (LFMC) significantly influences wildland fire behaviour. However, characterising variations in LFMC is difficult because both foliar mass and dry mass can change throughout the season. Here we quantify the seasonal changes in both plant water status and dry matter partitioning. We collected new and old foliar samples from Pinus contorta for...

Development and Testing of a Coupled Ocean-atmosphere Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-28

wind, temperature, and moisture variables, while the oceanographic ET is derived from ocean current, temperature, and salinity variables. Estimates of...wind, temperature, and moisture variables while the oceanographic ET is derived from ocean current temperature, and salinity variables. Estimates of...uncertainty in the model. Rigorously accurate ensemble methods for describing the distribution of future states given past information include particle

A First Look at Decadal Hydrological Predictability by Land Surface Ensemble Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Xing; Zhu, Enda

2018-03-01

The prediction of terrestrial hydrology at the decadal scale is critical for managing water resources in the face of climate change. Here we conducted an assessment by global land model simulations following the design of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) decadal hindcast experiments, specifically testing for the sensitivity to perfect initial or boundary conditions. The memory for terrestrial water storage (TWS) is longer than 6 years over 11% of global land areas where the deep soil moisture and aquifer water have a long memory and a nonnegligible variability. Ensemble decadal predictions based on realistic initial conditions are skillful over 31%, 43%, and 59% of global land areas for TWS, deep soil moisture, and aquifer water, respectively. The fraction of skillful predictions for TWS increases by 10%-16% when conditioned on Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indices. This study provides a first look at decadal hydrological predictability, with an improved skill when incorporating low-frequency climate information.

Prediction of residue-residue contact matrix for protein-protein interaction with Fisher score features and deep learning.

PubMed

Du, Tianchuan; Liao, Li; Wu, Cathy H; Sun, Bilin

2016-11-01

Protein-protein interactions play essential roles in many biological processes. Acquiring knowledge of the residue-residue contact information of two interacting proteins is not only helpful in annotating functions for proteins, but also critical for structure-based drug design. The prediction of the protein residue-residue contact matrix of the interfacial regions is challenging. In this work, we introduced deep learning techniques (specifically, stacked autoencoders) to build deep neural network models to tackled the residue-residue contact prediction problem. In tandem with interaction profile Hidden Markov Models, which was used first to extract Fisher score features from protein sequences, stacked autoencoders were deployed to extract and learn hidden abstract features. The deep learning model showed significant improvement over the traditional machine learning model, Support Vector Machines (SVM), with the overall accuracy increased by 15% from 65.40% to 80.82%. We showed that the stacked autoencoders could extract novel features, which can be utilized by deep neural networks and other classifiers to enhance learning, out of the Fisher score features. It is further shown that deep neural networks have significant advantages over SVM in making use of the newly extracted features. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A hybrid wavelet transform based short-term wind speed forecasting approach.

PubMed

Wang, Jujie

2014-01-01

It is important to improve the accuracy of wind speed forecasting for wind parks management and wind power utilization. In this paper, a novel hybrid approach known as WTT-TNN is proposed for wind speed forecasting. In the first step of the approach, a wavelet transform technique (WTT) is used to decompose wind speed into an approximate scale and several detailed scales. In the second step, a two-hidden-layer neural network (TNN) is used to predict both approximated scale and detailed scales, respectively. In order to find the optimal network architecture, the partial autocorrelation function is adopted to determine the number of neurons in the input layer, and an experimental simulation is made to determine the number of neurons within each hidden layer in the modeling process of TNN. Afterwards, the final prediction value can be obtained by the sum of these prediction results. In this study, a WTT is employed to extract these different patterns of the wind speed and make it easier for forecasting. To evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, it is applied to forecast Hexi Corridor of China's wind speed. Simulation results in four different cases show that the proposed method increases wind speed forecasting accuracy.

A Hybrid Wavelet Transform Based Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Approach

PubMed Central

Wang, Jujie

2014-01-01

It is important to improve the accuracy of wind speed forecasting for wind parks management and wind power utilization. In this paper, a novel hybrid approach known as WTT-TNN is proposed for wind speed forecasting. In the first step of the approach, a wavelet transform technique (WTT) is used to decompose wind speed into an approximate scale and several detailed scales. In the second step, a two-hidden-layer neural network (TNN) is used to predict both approximated scale and detailed scales, respectively. In order to find the optimal network architecture, the partial autocorrelation function is adopted to determine the number of neurons in the input layer, and an experimental simulation is made to determine the number of neurons within each hidden layer in the modeling process of TNN. Afterwards, the final prediction value can be obtained by the sum of these prediction results. In this study, a WTT is employed to extract these different patterns of the wind speed and make it easier for forecasting. To evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, it is applied to forecast Hexi Corridor of China's wind speed. Simulation results in four different cases show that the proposed method increases wind speed forecasting accuracy. PMID:25136699

Non-parallel coevolution of sender and receiver in the acoustic communication system of treefrogs.

PubMed

Schul, Johannes; Bush, Sarah L

2002-09-07

Advertisement calls of closely related species often differ in quantitative features such as the repetition rate of signal units. These differences are important in species recognition. Current models of signal-receiver coevolution predict two possible patterns in the evolution of the mechanism used by receivers to recognize the call: (i) classical sexual selection models (Fisher process, good genes/indirect benefits, direct benefits models) predict that close relatives use qualitatively similar signal recognition mechanisms tuned to different values of a call parameter; and (ii) receiver bias models (hidden preference, pre-existing bias models) predict that if different signal recognition mechanisms are used by sibling species, evidence of an ancestral mechanism will persist in the derived species, and evidence of a pre-existing bias will be detectable in the ancestral species. We describe qualitatively different call recognition mechanisms in sibling species of treefrogs. Whereas Hyla chrysoscelis uses pulse rate to recognize male calls, Hyla versicolor uses absolute measurements of pulse duration and interval duration. We found no evidence of either hidden preferences or pre-existing biases. The results are compared with similar data from katydids (Tettigonia sp.). In both taxa, the data are not adequately explained by current models of signal-receiver coevolution.

Towards robust quantification and reduction of uncertainty in hydrologic predictions: Integration of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo and factorial polynomial chaos expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.; Ancell, B. C.

2017-05-01

The particle filtering techniques have been receiving increasing attention from the hydrologic community due to its ability to properly estimate model parameters and states of nonlinear and non-Gaussian systems. To facilitate a robust quantification of uncertainty in hydrologic predictions, it is necessary to explicitly examine the forward propagation and evolution of parameter uncertainties and their interactions that affect the predictive performance. This paper presents a unified probabilistic framework that merges the strengths of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) and factorial polynomial chaos expansion (FPCE) algorithms to robustly quantify and reduce uncertainties in hydrologic predictions. A Gaussian anamorphosis technique is used to establish a seamless bridge between the data assimilation using the PMCMC and the uncertainty propagation using the FPCE through a straightforward transformation of posterior distributions of model parameters. The unified probabilistic framework is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) region in China to demonstrate its validity and applicability. Results reveal that the degree of spatial variability of soil moisture capacity is the most identifiable model parameter with the fastest convergence through the streamflow assimilation process. The potential interaction between the spatial variability in soil moisture conditions and the maximum soil moisture capacity has the most significant effect on the performance of streamflow predictions. In addition, parameter sensitivities and interactions vary in magnitude and direction over time due to temporal and spatial dynamics of hydrologic processes.

Patterns of Precipitation and Streamflow Responses to Moisture Fluxes during Atmospheric Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henn, B. M.; Wilson, A. M.; Asgari Lamjiri, M.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

Precipitation from landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) have been shown to dominate the hydroclimate of many parts of the world. ARs are associated with saturated, neutrally-stable profiles in the lower atmosphere, in which forced ascent by topography induces precipitation. Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation over complex terrain during AR-driven precipitation is critical for accurate forcing of distributed hydrologic models and streamflow forecasts. Past studies using radar wind profilers and radiosondes have demonstrated predictability of precipitation rates based on upslope water vapor flux over coastal terrain, with certain levels of moisture flux exhibiting the greatest influence on precipitation. Additionally, these relationships have been extended to show that streamflow in turn responds predictably to upslope vapor flux. However, past studies have focused on individual pairs of profilers and precipitation gauges; the question of how orographic precipitation in ARs is distributed spatially over complex terrain, at different topographic scales, is less well known. Here, we examine profiles of atmospheric moisture transport from radiosondes and wind profilers, against a relatively dense network of precipitation gauges, as well as stream gauges, to assess relationships between upslope moisture flux and the spatial response of precipitation and streamflow. We focus on California's Russian River watershed in the 2016-2017 cool season, when regular radiosonde launches were made at two locations during an active sequence of landfalling ARs. We examine how atmospheric water vapor flux results in precipitation patterns across gauges with different topographic relationships to the prevailing moisture-bearing winds, and conduct a similar comparison of runoff volume response from several unimpaired watersheds in the upper Russian watershed, taking into account antecedent soil moisture conditions that influence runoff generation. Finally, we compare observed spatial patterns of precipitation accumulations to those in a topographically-aided gridded precipitation dataset to understand how atmospheric moisture transport may inform methods to downscale precipitation to high resolution for use in hydrologic modeling.

Testing Pearl Model In Three European Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouraoui, F.; Bidoglio, G.

The Plant Protection Product Directive (91/414/EEC) stresses the need of validated models to calculate predicted environmental concentrations. The use of models has become an unavoidable step before pesticide registration. In this context, European Commission, and in particular DGVI, set up a FOrum for the Co-ordination of pes- ticide fate models and their USe (FOCUS). In a complementary effort, DG research supported the APECOP project, with one of its objective being the validation and im- provement of existing pesticide fate models. The main topic of research presented here is the validation of the PEARL model for different sites in Europe. The PEARL model, actually used in the Dutch pesticide registration procedure, was validated in three well- instrumented sites: Vredepeel (the Netherlands), Brimstone (UK), and Lanna (Swe- den). A step-wise procedure was used for the validation of the PEARL model. First the water transport module was calibrated, and then the solute transport module, using tracer measurements keeping unchanged the water transport parameters. The Vrede- peel site is characterised by a sandy soil. Fourteen months of measurements were used for the calibration. Two pesticides were applied on the site: bentazone and etho- prophos. PEARL predictions were very satisfactory for both soil moisture content, and pesticide concentration in the soil profile. The Brimstone site is characterised by a cracking clay soil. The calibration was conducted on a time series measurement of 7 years. The validation consisted in comparing predictions and measurement of soil moisture at different soil depths, and in comparing the predicted and measured con- centration of isoproturon in the drainage water. The results, even if in good agreement with the measuremens, highlighted the limitation of the model when the preferential flow becomes a dominant process. PEARL did not reproduce well soil moisture pro- file during summer months, and also under-predicted the arrival of isoproturon to the drains. The Lanna site is characterised by s structured clay soil. PEARL was success- ful in predicting soil moisture profiles and the draining water. PEARL performed well in predicting the soil concentration of bentazone at different depth. However, since PEARL does not consider cracks in the soil, it did not predict well the peak concen- trations of bentazone in the drainage water. Along with the validation results for the three sites, a sensitivity analysis of the model is presented.

Forest productivity varies with soil moisture more than temperature in a small montane watershed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei, Liang; Zhou, Hang; Link, Timothy E

Mountainous terrain creates variability in microclimate, including nocturnal cold air drainage and resultant temperature inversions. Driven by the elevational temperature gradient, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) also varies with elevation. Soil depth and moisture availability often increase from ridgetop to valley bottom. These variations complicate predictions of forest productivity and other biological responses. We analyzed spatiotemporal air temperature (T) and VPD variations in a forested, 27-km 2 catchment that varied from 1000 to 1650 m in elevation. Temperature inversions occurred on 76% of mornings in the growing season. The inversion had a clear upper boundary at midslope (~1370 m a.s.l.). Vapormore » pressure was relatively constant across elevations, therefore VPD was mainly controlled by T in the watershed. Here, we assessed the impact of microclimate and soil moisture on tree height, forest productivity, and carbon stable isotopes (δ 13C) using a physiological forest growth model (3-PG). Simulated productivity and tree height were tested against observations derived from lidar data. The effects on photosynthetic gas-exchange of dramatic elevational variations in T and VPD largely cancelled as higher temperature (increasing productivity) accompanies higher VPD (reducing productivity). Although it was not measured, the simulations suggested that realistic elevational variations in soil moisture predicted the observed decline in productivity with elevation. Therefore, in this watershed, the model parameterization should have emphasized soil moisture rather than precise descriptions of temperature inversions.« less

Moisture Influence Reducing Method for Heavy Metals Detection in Plant Materials Using Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy: A Case Study for Chromium Content Detection in Rice Leaves.

PubMed

Peng, Jiyu; He, Yong; Ye, Lanhan; Shen, Tingting; Liu, Fei; Kong, Wenwen; Liu, Xiaodan; Zhao, Yun

2017-07-18

Fast detection of heavy metals in plant materials is crucial for environmental remediation and ensuring food safety. However, most plant materials contain high moisture content, the influence of which cannot be simply ignored. Hence, we proposed moisture influence reducing method for fast detection of heavy metals using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). First, we investigated the effect of moisture content on signal intensity, stability, and plasma parameters (temperature and electron density) and determined the main influential factors (experimental parameters F and the change of analyte concentration) on the variations of signal. For chromium content detection, the rice leaves were performed with a quick drying procedure, and two strategies were further used to reduce the effect of moisture content and shot-to-shot fluctuation. An exponential model based on the intensity of background was used to correct the actual element concentration in analyte. Also, the ratio of signal-to-background for univariable calibration and partial least squared regression (PLSR) for multivariable calibration were used to compensate the prediction deviations. The PLSR calibration model obtained the best result, with the correlation coefficient of 0.9669 and root-mean-square error of 4.75 mg/kg in the prediction set. The preliminary results indicated that the proposed method allowed for the detection of heavy metals in plant materials using LIBS, and it could be possibly used for element mapping in future work.

Complex terrain alters temperature and moisture limitations of forest soil respiration across a semiarid to subalpine gradient

DOE PAGES

Berryman, E. M.; Barnard, H. R.; Adams, H. R.; ...

2015-02-10

Forest soil respiration is a major carbon (C) flux that is characterized by significant variability in space and time. In this paper, we quantified growing season soil respiration during both a drought year and a nondrought year across a complex landscape to identify how landscape and climate interact to control soil respiration. We asked the following questions: (1) How does soil respiration vary across the catchments due to terrain-induced variability in moisture availability and temperature? (2) Does the relative importance of moisture versus temperature limitation of respiration vary across space and time? And (3) what terrain elements are important formore » dictating the pattern of soil respiration and its controls? Moisture superseded temperature in explaining watershed respiration patterns, with wetter yet cooler areas higher up and on north facing slopes yielding greater soil respiration than lower and south facing areas. Wetter subalpine forests had reduced moisture limitation in favor of greater seasonal temperature limitation, and the reverse was true for low-elevation semiarid forests. Coincident climate poorly predicted soil respiration in the montane transition zone; however, antecedent precipitation from the prior 10 days provided additional explanatory power. A seasonal trend in respiration remained after accounting for microclimate effects, suggesting that local climate alone may not adequately predict seasonal variability in soil respiration in montane forests. Finally, soil respiration climate controls were more strongly related to topography during the drought year highlighting the importance of landscape complexity in ecosystem response to drought.« less

How Much Water Trees Access and How It Determines Forest Response to Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berdanier, A. B.; Clark, J. S.

2015-12-01

Forests are transformed by drought as water availability drops below levels where trees of different sizes and species can maintain productivity and survive. Physiological studies have provided detailed understanding of how species differences affect drought vulnerability but they offer almost no insights about the amount of water different trees can access beyond general statements about rooting depth. While canopy architecture provides strong evidence for light availability aboveground, belowground moisture availability remains essentially unknown. For example, do larger trees always have greater access to soil moisture? In temperate mixed forests, the ability to access a large soil moisture pool could minimize damage during drought events and facilitate post-drought recovery, potentially at the expense of neighboring trees. We show that the pool of accessible soil moisture can be estimated for trees with data on whole-plant transpiration and that this data can be used to predict water availability for forest stands. We estimate soil water availability with a Bayesian state-space model based on a simple water balance, where cumulative depressions in water use below potential transpiration indicate soil resource depletion. We compare trees of different sizes and species, extend these findings to the entire stand, and connect them to our recent research showing that tree survival after drought depends on post-drought growth recovery and local moisture availability. These results can be used to predict competitive abilities for soil water, understand ecohydrological variation within stands, and identify trees that are at risk of damage from future drought events.

Complex terrain alters temperature and moisture limitations of forest soil respiration across a semiarid to subalpine gradient

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berryman, E. M.; Barnard, H. R.; Adams, H. R.

Forest soil respiration is a major carbon (C) flux that is characterized by significant variability in space and time. In this paper, we quantified growing season soil respiration during both a drought year and a nondrought year across a complex landscape to identify how landscape and climate interact to control soil respiration. We asked the following questions: (1) How does soil respiration vary across the catchments due to terrain-induced variability in moisture availability and temperature? (2) Does the relative importance of moisture versus temperature limitation of respiration vary across space and time? And (3) what terrain elements are important formore » dictating the pattern of soil respiration and its controls? Moisture superseded temperature in explaining watershed respiration patterns, with wetter yet cooler areas higher up and on north facing slopes yielding greater soil respiration than lower and south facing areas. Wetter subalpine forests had reduced moisture limitation in favor of greater seasonal temperature limitation, and the reverse was true for low-elevation semiarid forests. Coincident climate poorly predicted soil respiration in the montane transition zone; however, antecedent precipitation from the prior 10 days provided additional explanatory power. A seasonal trend in respiration remained after accounting for microclimate effects, suggesting that local climate alone may not adequately predict seasonal variability in soil respiration in montane forests. Finally, soil respiration climate controls were more strongly related to topography during the drought year highlighting the importance of landscape complexity in ecosystem response to drought.« less

Using GRACE-Derived Water and Moisture Products as a Predictive Tool for Fire Response in the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousseau, N. J.; Jensen, D.; Zajic, B.; Rodell, M.; Reager, J. T., II

2015-12-01

Understanding the relationship between wildfire activity and soil moisture in the United States has been difficult to assess, with limited ability to determine areas that are at high risk. This limitation is largely due to complex environmental factors at play, especially as they relate to alternating periods of wet and dry conditions, and the lack of remotely-sensed products. Recent drought conditions and accompanying low Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) have led to disastrous wildfire outbreaks causing economic loss, property damage, and environmental degradation. Thus, developing a programmed toolset to assess the relationship between soil moisture, which contributes greatly to FMC and fire severity, can establish the framework for determining overall wildfire risk. To properly evaluate these parameters, we used data assimilated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and data from the Fire Program Analysis fire-occurrence database (FPA FOD) to determine the extent soil moisture affects fire activity. Through these datasets, we produced correlation and regression maps at a coarse resolution of 0.25 degrees for the contiguous United States. These fire-risk products and toolsets proved the viability of this methodology, allowing for the future incorporation of more GRACE-derived water parameters, MODIS vegetation indices, and other environmental datasets to refine the model for fire risk. Additionally, they will allow assessment to national-scale early fire management and provide responders with a predictive tool to better employ early decision-support to areas of high risk during regions' respective fire season(s).

Complex terrain alters temperature and moisture limitations of forest soil respiration across a semiarid to subalpine gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berryman, Erin Michele; Barnard, H.R.; Adams, H.R.; Burns, M.A.; Gallo, E.; Brooks, P.D.

2015-01-01

Forest soil respiration is a major carbon (C) flux that is characterized by significant variability in space and time. We quantified growing season soil respiration during both a drought year and a nondrought year across a complex landscape to identify how landscape and climate interact to control soil respiration. We asked the following questions: (1) How does soil respiration vary across the catchments due to terrain-induced variability in moisture availability and temperature? (2) Does the relative importance of moisture versus temperature limitation of respiration vary across space and time? And (3) what terrain elements are important for dictating the pattern of soil respiration and its controls? Moisture superseded temperature in explaining watershed respiration patterns, with wetter yet cooler areas higher up and on north facing slopes yielding greater soil respiration than lower and south facing areas. Wetter subalpine forests had reduced moisture limitation in favor of greater seasonal temperature limitation, and the reverse was true for low-elevation semiarid forests. Coincident climate poorly predicted soil respiration in the montane transition zone; however, antecedent precipitation from the prior 10 days provided additional explanatory power. A seasonal trend in respiration remained after accounting for microclimate effects, suggesting that local climate alone may not adequately predict seasonal variability in soil respiration in montane forests. Soil respiration climate controls were more strongly related to topography during the drought year highlighting the importance of landscape complexity in ecosystem response to drought.

Forest productivity varies with soil moisture more than temperature in a small montane watershed

DOE PAGES

Wei, Liang; Zhou, Hang; Link, Timothy E; ...

2018-05-16

Mountainous terrain creates variability in microclimate, including nocturnal cold air drainage and resultant temperature inversions. Driven by the elevational temperature gradient, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) also varies with elevation. Soil depth and moisture availability often increase from ridgetop to valley bottom. These variations complicate predictions of forest productivity and other biological responses. We analyzed spatiotemporal air temperature (T) and VPD variations in a forested, 27-km 2 catchment that varied from 1000 to 1650 m in elevation. Temperature inversions occurred on 76% of mornings in the growing season. The inversion had a clear upper boundary at midslope (~1370 m a.s.l.). Vapormore » pressure was relatively constant across elevations, therefore VPD was mainly controlled by T in the watershed. Here, we assessed the impact of microclimate and soil moisture on tree height, forest productivity, and carbon stable isotopes (δ 13C) using a physiological forest growth model (3-PG). Simulated productivity and tree height were tested against observations derived from lidar data. The effects on photosynthetic gas-exchange of dramatic elevational variations in T and VPD largely cancelled as higher temperature (increasing productivity) accompanies higher VPD (reducing productivity). Although it was not measured, the simulations suggested that realistic elevational variations in soil moisture predicted the observed decline in productivity with elevation. Therefore, in this watershed, the model parameterization should have emphasized soil moisture rather than precise descriptions of temperature inversions.« less

A system for predicting the amount of Phellinus (Fomes) igniarius rot in trembling aspen stands

Treesearch

Robert L. Anderson; Arthur L. Jr. Schipper

1978-01-01

The occurrence of Phellinus (Fomes) igniarius white trunk rot in 45- to 50-year-old trembling aspen stands can be predicted by applying a constant to the stand basal area with P. igniarius conks to estimate the total basal area with P. igniarius rot. Future decay projections can be made by reapplying the basal area of hidden decay for each 6 years projected. This paper...

Study on real-time elevator brake failure predictive system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jun; Fan, Jinwei

2013-10-01

This paper presented a real-time failure predictive system of the elevator brake. Through inspecting the running state of the coil by a high precision long range laser triangulation non-contact measurement sensor, the displacement curve of the coil is gathered without interfering the original system. By analyzing the displacement data using the diagnostic algorithm, the hidden danger of the brake system can be discovered in time and thus avoid the according accident.

The Robust Beauty of Ordinary Information

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V.; Schooler, Lael J.; Hertwig, Ralph

2010-01-01

Heuristics embodying limited information search and noncompensatory processing of information can yield robust performance relative to computationally more complex models. One criticism raised against heuristics is the argument that complexity is hidden in the calculation of the cue order used to make predictions. We discuss ways to order cues…

Artificial Intelligence in Prediction of Secondary Protein Structure Using CB513 Database

PubMed Central

Avdagic, Zikrija; Purisevic, Elvir; Omanovic, Samir; Coralic, Zlatan

2009-01-01

In this paper we describe CB513 a non-redundant dataset, suitable for development of algorithms for prediction of secondary protein structure. A program was made in Borland Delphi for transforming data from our dataset to make it suitable for learning of neural network for prediction of secondary protein structure implemented in MATLAB Neural-Network Toolbox. Learning (training and testing) of neural network is researched with different sizes of windows, different number of neurons in the hidden layer and different number of training epochs, while using dataset CB513. PMID:21347158

Use of a region of the visible and near infrared spectrum to predict mechanical properties of wet wood and standing trees

DOEpatents

Meglen, Robert R.; Kelley, Stephen S.

2003-01-01

In a method for determining the dry mechanical strength for a green wood, the improvement comprising: (a) illuminating a surface of the wood to be determined with a reduced range of wavelengths in the VIS-NIR spectra 400 to 1150 nm, said wood having a green moisture content; (b) analyzing the surface of the wood using a spectrometric method, the method generating a first spectral data of a reduced range of wavelengths in VIS-NIR spectra; and (c) using a multivariate analysis technique to predict the mechanical strength of green wood when dry by comparing the first spectral data with a calibration model, the calibration model comprising a second spectrometric method of spectral data of a reduced range of wavelengths in VIS-NIR spectra obtained from a reference wood having a green moisture content, the second spectral being correlated with a known mechanical strength analytical result obtained from the reference wood when dried and a having a dry moisture content.

KSC-2015-1231

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-28

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The sun sets over the West Cost prior to the launch gantry being rolled back to reveal the United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket with the Soil Moisture Active Passive, or SMAP, satellite aboard, at the Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. SMAP is a remote sensing mission designed to measure and map the Earth's soil moisture distribution and freeze/thaw stat with unprecedented accuracy, resolution and coverage. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://smap.jpl.nasa.gov Photo credit: NASA/Randy Beaudoin

KSC-2015-1230

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-28

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The sun sets over the West Cost prior to the launch gantry being rolled back to reveal the United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket with the Soil Moisture Active Passive, or SMAP, satellite aboard, at the Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. SMAP is a remote sensing mission designed to measure and map the Earth's soil moisture distribution and freeze/thaw stat with unprecedented accuracy, resolution and coverage. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://smap.jpl.nasa.gov Photo credit: NASA/Randy Beaudoin

KSC-2015-1232

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-28

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The sun sets over the West Cost prior to the launch gantry being rolled back to reveal the United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket with the Soil Moisture Active Passive, or SMAP, satellite aboard, at the Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. SMAP is a remote sensing mission designed to measure and map the Earth's soil moisture distribution and freeze/thaw stat with unprecedented accuracy, resolution and coverage. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://smap.jpl.nasa.gov Photo credit: NASA/Randy Beaudoin

Dominating Controls for Wetter South Asian Summer Monsoon in the Twenty-First Century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mei, Rui; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

This study analyzes a suite of global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archives to understand the mechanisms behind a net increase in the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in response to enhanced radiative forcing during the twenty-first century. An increase in radiative forcing fuels an increase in the atmospheric moisture content through warmer temperatures, which overwhelms the weakening of monsoon circulation and results in an increase of moisture convergence and therefore summer monsoon precipitation over South Asia. Moisture source analysis suggests that both regional (local recycling, the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal)more » and remote (including the south Indian Ocean) sources contribute to the moisture supply for precipitation over South Asia during the summer season that is facilitated by the monsoon dynamics. For regional moisture sources, the effect of excessive atmospheric moisture is offset by weaker monsoon circulation and uncertainty in the response of the evapotranspiration over land, so anomalies in their contribution to the total moisture supply are either mixed or muted. In contrast, weakening of the monsoon dynamics has less influence on the moisture supply from remote sources that not only is a dominant moisture contributor in the historical period but is also the net driver of the positive summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century. Finally, the results also indicate that historic measures of the monsoon dynamics may not be well suited to predict the nonstationary moisture-driven South Asian summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century.« less

Dominating Controls for Wetter South Asian Summer Monsoon in the Twenty-First Century

DOE PAGES

Mei, Rui; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; ...

2015-04-07

This study analyzes a suite of global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archives to understand the mechanisms behind a net increase in the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in response to enhanced radiative forcing during the twenty-first century. An increase in radiative forcing fuels an increase in the atmospheric moisture content through warmer temperatures, which overwhelms the weakening of monsoon circulation and results in an increase of moisture convergence and therefore summer monsoon precipitation over South Asia. Moisture source analysis suggests that both regional (local recycling, the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal)more » and remote (including the south Indian Ocean) sources contribute to the moisture supply for precipitation over South Asia during the summer season that is facilitated by the monsoon dynamics. For regional moisture sources, the effect of excessive atmospheric moisture is offset by weaker monsoon circulation and uncertainty in the response of the evapotranspiration over land, so anomalies in their contribution to the total moisture supply are either mixed or muted. In contrast, weakening of the monsoon dynamics has less influence on the moisture supply from remote sources that not only is a dominant moisture contributor in the historical period but is also the net driver of the positive summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century. Finally, the results also indicate that historic measures of the monsoon dynamics may not be well suited to predict the nonstationary moisture-driven South Asian summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century.« less

High-resolution soil moisture mapping in Afghanistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrickx, Jan M. H.; Harrison, J. Bruce J.; Borchers, Brian; Kelley, Julie R.; Howington, Stacy; Ballard, Jerry

2011-06-01

Soil moisture conditions have an impact upon virtually all aspects of Army activities and are increasingly affecting its systems and operations. Soil moisture conditions affect operational mobility, detection of landmines and unexploded ordinance, natural material penetration/excavation, military engineering activities, blowing dust and sand, watershed responses, and flooding. This study further explores a method for high-resolution (2.7 m) soil moisture mapping using remote satellite optical imagery that is readily available from Landsat and QuickBird. The soil moisture estimations are needed for the evaluation of IED sensors using the Countermine Simulation Testbed in regions where access is difficult or impossible. The method has been tested in Helmand Province, Afghanistan, using a Landsat7 image and a QuickBird image of April 23 and 24, 2009, respectively. In previous work it was found that Landsat soil moisture can be predicted from the visual and near infra-red Landsat bands1-4. Since QuickBird bands 1-4 are almost identical to Landsat bands 1- 4, a Landsat soil moisture map can be downscaled using QuickBird bands 1-4. However, using this global approach for downscaling from Landsat to QuickBird scale yielded a small number of pixels with erroneous soil moisture values. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine how the quality of the downscaled soil moisture maps can be improved by using a data stratification approach for the development of downscaling regression equations for each landscape class. It was found that stratification results in a reliable downscaled soil moisture map with a spatial resolution of 2.7 m.

Evaluating the Utility of Remotely-Sensed Soil Moisture Retrievals for Operational Agricultural Drought Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolten, John D.; Crow, Wade T.; Zhan, Xiwu; Jackson, Thomas J.; Reynolds,Curt

2010-01-01

Soil moisture is a fundamental data source used by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) International Production Assessment Division (IPAD) to monitor crop growth stage and condition and subsequently, globally forecast agricultural yields. Currently, the USDA IPAD estimates surface and root-zone soil moisture using a two-layer modified Palmer soil moisture model forced by global precipitation and temperature measurements. However, this approach suffers from well-known errors arising from uncertainty in model forcing data and highly simplified model physics. Here we attempt to correct for these errors by designing and applying an Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system to integrate surface soil moisture retrievals from the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) into the USDA modified Palmer soil moisture model. An assessment of soil moisture analysis products produced from this assimilation has been completed for a five-year (2002 to 2007) period over the North American continent between 23degN - 50degN and 128degW - 65degW. In particular, a data denial experimental approach is utilized to isolate the added utility of integrating remotely-sensed soil moisture by comparing EnKF soil moisture results obtained using (relatively) low-quality precipitation products obtained from real-time satellite imagery to baseline Palmer model runs forced with higher quality rainfall. An analysis of root-zone anomalies for each model simulation suggests that the assimilation of AMSR-E surface soil moisture retrievals can add significant value to USDA root-zone predictions derived from real-time satellite precipitation products.

Modelling field scale spatial variation in water run-off, soil moisture, N2O emissions and herbage biomass of a grazed pasture using the SPACSYS model.

PubMed

Liu, Yi; Li, Yuefen; Harris, Paul; Cardenas, Laura M; Dunn, Robert M; Sint, Hadewij; Murray, Phil J; Lee, Michael R F; Wu, Lianhai

2018-04-01

In this study, we evaluated the ability of the SPACSYS model to simulate water run-off, soil moisture, N 2 O fluxes and grass growth using data generated from a field of the North Wyke Farm Platform. The field-scale model is adapted via a linked and grid-based approach (grid-to-grid) to account for not only temporal dynamics but also the within-field spatial variation in these key ecosystem indicators. Spatial variability in nutrient and water presence at the field-scale is a key source of uncertainty when quantifying nutrient cycling and water movement in an agricultural system. Results demonstrated that the new spatially distributed version of SPACSYS provided a worthy improvement in accuracy over the standard (single-point) version for biomass productivity. No difference in model prediction performance was observed for water run-off, reflecting the closed-system nature of this variable. Similarly, no difference in model prediction performance was found for N 2 O fluxes, but here the N 2 O predictions were noticeably poor in both cases. Further developmental work, informed by this study's findings, is proposed to improve model predictions for N 2 O. Soil moisture results with the spatially distributed version appeared promising but this promise could not be objectively verified.

Vegetation function and non-uniqueness of the hydrological response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, V. Y.; Fatichi, S.; Kampf, S. K.; Caporali, E.

2012-04-01

Through local moisture uptake vegetation exerts seasonal and longer-term impacts on the watershed hydrological response. However, the role of vegetation may go beyond the conventionally implied and well-understood "sink" function in the basin soil moisture storage equation. We argue that vegetation function imposes a "homogenizing" effect on pre-event soil moisture spatial storage, decreasing the likelihood that a rainfall event will result in a topographically-driven redistribution of soil water and the consequent formation of variable source areas. In combination with vegetation temporal dynamics, this may lead to the non-uniqueness of the hydrological response with respect to the mean basin wetness. This study designs a set of relevant numerical experiments carried out with two physically-based models; one of the models, HYDRUS, resolves variably saturated subsurface flow using a fully three-dimensional formulation, while the other model, tRIBS+VEGGIE, uses a one-dimensional formulation applied in a quasi-three-dimensional framework in combination with the model of vegetation dynamics. We demonstrate that (1) vegetation function modifies spatial heterogeneity in moisture spatial storage by imposing different degrees of subsurface flow connectivity; explore mechanistically (2) how and why a basin with the same mean soil moisture can have distinctly different spatial soil moisture distributions; and demonstrate (2) how these distinct moisture distributions result in a hysteretic runoff response to precipitation. Furthermore, the study argues that near-surface soil moisture is an insufficient indicator of the initial moisture state of a catchment with the implication of its limited effect on hydrological predictability.

Spatiotemporal surface moisture dynamics on a coastal beach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smit, Y.; Donker, J.; Ruessink, G.

2017-12-01

Surface moisture strongly controls aeolian transport on a beach and, accordingly, understanding its spatiotemporal variability will aid in developing a predictive model for the aeolian input of wind-blown beach sand into the foredune. In our earlier work (Smit et al., 2017, Aeolian Research) we have illustrated that the reflectance signal of a near-infrared Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS) corresponds well to gravimetric surface moisture content (in %) over its full range. Here, we analyze TLS-derived surface moisture maps with a 1x1 m spatial and a 15-min temporal resolution and concurrent groundwater measurements collected during a falling and rising tide at Egmond beach, the Netherlands. The maps show that the beach can be conceptualized into three surface moisture zones. First, the swash zone: 18% - 25%. Second, the intertidal zone: 5% - 25% (large fluctuations). A striking result for this zone is that surface moisture can decrease with a rate varying between 2.5% - 4% per hour, and cumulatively 16% during a single falling tide. And third, the back beach zone: 3% - 7%. During falling tide surface moisture fluctuations are strongly linked to the behavior of groundwater depth. A clear `Van Genuchten-type' retention curve can describe the relation between the two. Furthermore, no anticipated processes by capillary forces were observed in advance of the rising tide and no hysteresis was observed over de complete tidal cycle. Concluding, the TLS-derived moisture maps and the groundwater measurements clearly show that groundwater depth is the key control on spatiotemporal surface moisture variations.

Multi-objective optimization of process conditions in the manufacturing of banana (Musa paradisiaca L.) starch/natural rubber films.

PubMed

Ramírez-Hernández, A; Aparicio-Saguilán, A; Reynoso-Meza, G; Carrillo-Ahumada, J

2017-02-10

Multi-objective optimization was used to evaluate the effect of adding banana (Musa paradisiaca L.) starch and natural rubber (cis-1,4-poliisopreno) at different ratios (1-13w/w) to the manufacturing process of biodegradable films, specifically the effect on the biodegradability, crystallinity and moisture of the films. A structural characterization of the films was performed by X-ray diffraction, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and SEM, moisture and biodegradability properties were studied. The models obtained showed that degradability vs. moisture tend to be inversely proportional and crystallinity vs. degradability tend to be directly proportional. With respect to crystallinity vs. moisture behavior, it is observed that crystallinity remains constant when moisture values remain between 27 and 41%. Beyond this value there is an exponential increase in crystallinity. These results allow for predictions on the mechanical behavior that can occur in starch/rubber films. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Satellite Sounder Observations of Contrasting Tropospheric Moisture Transport Regimes: Saharan Air Layers, Hadley Cells, and Atmospheric Rivers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nalli, Nicholas R.; Barnet, Christopher D.; Reale, Tony

This paper examines the performance of satellite sounder atmospheric vertical moisture proles (AVMP) under tropospheric conditions encompassing moisture contrasts driven by convection and advection transport mechanisms, specifically Atlantic Ocean Saharan air layers (SALs) and Pacific Ocean moisture conveyer belts (MCBs) commonly referred to as atmospheric rivers (ARs), both of these being mesoscale to synoptic meteorological phenomena within the vicinity of subtropical Hadley subsidence zones. Operational AVMP environmental data records retrieved from the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) NOAA-Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) are collocated with dedicated radiosonde observations (RAOBs) obtained from ocean-based intensive field campaigns; these RAOBs provide uniquelymore » independent correlative truth data not assimilated into numerical weather prediction models for satellite sounder validation over open ocean. Using these marine-based data, we empirically assess the performance of the operational NUCAPS AVMP product for detecting and resolving these tropospheric moisture features over otherwise RAOB-sparse regions.« less

Application of Microwave Moisture Sensor for Determination of Oil Palm Fruit Ripeness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeow, You Kok; Abbas, Zulkifly; Khalid, Kaida

2010-01-01

This paper describes the development of a low cost coaxial moisture sensor for the determination of moisture content (30 % to 80 % wet-weight basis) of the oil palm fruits of various degree of fruit ripeness. The sensor operating between 1 GHz and 5 GHz was fabricated from an inexpensive 4.1 mm outer diameter SMA coaxial stub contact panel which is suitable for single fruit measurement. The measurement system consists of the sensor and a PC-controlled vector network analyzer (VNA). The actual moisture content was determined by standard oven drying method and compared with predicted value of fruit moisture content obtained using the studied sensor. The sensor was used to monitor fruit ripeness based on the measurement of the phase or magnitude of reflection coefficient and the dielectric measurement software was developed to control and acquire data from the VNA using Agilent VEE. This software was used to calculate the complex relative permittivity from the measured reflection coefficient between 1GHz and 5 GHz.

Assimilation of Satellite Data in Regional Air Quality Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcnider, Richard T.; Norris, William B.; Casey, Daniel; Pleim, Jonathan E.; Roselle, Shawn J.; Lapenta, William M.

1997-01-01

In terms of important uncertainty in regional-scale air-pollution models, probably no other aspect ranks any higher than the current ability to specify clouds and soil moisture on the regional scale. Because clouds in models are highly parameterized, the ability of models to predict the correct spatial and radiative characteristics is highly suspect and subject to large error. The poor representation of cloud fields from point measurements at National Weather Services stations and the almost total absence of surface moisture availability observations has made assimilation of these variables difficult to impossible. Yet, the correct inclusion of clouds and surface moisture are of first-order importance in regional-scale photochemistry.

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability and Land Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal

2004-01-01

Atmospheric chaos severely limits the predictability of precipitation on subseasonal to interannual timescales. Hope for accurate long-term precipitation forecasts lies with simulating atmospheric response to components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, that can be predicted beyond a couple of weeks. Indeed, seasonal forecasts centers now rely heavily on forecasts of ocean circulation. Soil moisture, another slow component of the Earth system, is relatively ignored by the operational seasonal forecasting community. It is starting, however, to garner more attention. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for months. Because these anomalies can have a strong impact on evaporation and other surface energy fluxes, and because the atmosphere may respond consistently to anomalies in the surface fluxes, an accurate soil moisture initialization in a forecast system has the potential to provide additional forecast skill. This potential has motivated a number of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) studies of soil moisture and its contribution to variability in the climate system. Some of these studies even suggest that in continental midlatitudes during summer, oceanic impacts on precipitation are quite small relative to soil moisture impacts. The model results, though, are strongly model-dependent, with some models showing large impacts and others showing almost none at all. A validation of the model results with observations thus naturally suggests itself, but this is exceedingly difficult. The necessary contemporaneous soil moisture, evaporation, and precipitation measurements at the large scale are virtually non-existent, and even if they did exist, showing statistically that soil moisture affects rainfall would be difficult because the other direction of causality - wherein rainfall affects soil moisture - is unquestionably active and is almost certainly dominant. Nevertheless, joint analyses of observations and AGCM results do reveal some suggestions of land-atmosphere feedback in the observational record, suggestions that soil moisture can affect precipitation over seasonal timescales and across certain large continental areas. The strength of this observed feedback in nature is not large but is still significant enough to be potentially useful, e.g., for forecasts. This talk will address all of these issues. It will begin with a brief overview of land surface modeling in atmospheric models but will then focus on recent research - using both observations and models - into the impact of land surface processes on variability in the climate system.

Effects of spatial heterogeneity in moisture content on the horizontal spread of peat fires.

PubMed

Prat-Guitart, Nuria; Rein, Guillermo; Hadden, Rory M; Belcher, Claire M; Yearsley, Jon M

2016-12-01

The gravimetric moisture content of peat is the main factor limiting the ignition and spread propagation of smouldering fires. Our aim is to use controlled laboratory experiments to better understand how the spread of smouldering fires is influenced in natural landscape conditions where the moisture content of the top peat layer is not homogeneous. In this paper, we study for the first time the spread of peat fires across a spatial matrix of two moisture contents (dry/wet) in the laboratory. The experiments were undertaken using an open-top insulated box (22×18×6cm) filled with milled peat. The peat was ignited at one side of the box initiating smouldering and horizontal spread. Measurements of the peak temperature inside the peat, fire duration and longwave thermal radiation from the burning samples revealed important local changes of the smouldering behaviour in response to sharp gradients in moisture content. Both, peak temperatures and radiation in wetter peat (after the moisture gradient) were sensitive to the drier moisture condition (preceding the moisture gradient). Drier peat conditions before the moisture gradient led to higher temperatures and higher radiation flux from the fire during the first 6cm of horizontal spread into a wet peat patch. The total spread distance into a wet peat patch was affected by the moisture content gradient. We predicted that in most peat moisture gradients of relevance to natural ecosystems the fire self-extinguishes within the first 10cm of horizontal spread into a wet peat patch. Spread distances of more than 10cm are limited to wet peat patches below 160% moisture content (mass of water per mass of dry peat). We found that spatial gradients of moisture content have important local effects on the horizontal spread and should be considered in field and modelling studies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Rainfall on Soil Moisture Dynamics in a Foggy Desert.

PubMed

Li, Bonan; Wang, Lixin; Kaseke, Kudzai F; Li, Lin; Seely, Mary K

2016-01-01

Soil moisture is a key variable in dryland ecosystems since it determines the occurrence and duration of vegetation water stress and affects the development of weather patterns including rainfall. However, the lack of ground observations of soil moisture and rainfall dynamics in many drylands has long been a major obstacle in understanding ecohydrological processes in these ecosystems. It is also uncertain to what extent rainfall controls soil moisture dynamics in fog dominated dryland systems. To this end, in this study, twelve to nineteen months' continuous daily records of rainfall and soil moisture (from January 2014 to August 2015) obtained from three sites (one sand dune site and two gravel plain sites) in the Namib Desert are reported. A process-based model simulating the stochastic soil moisture dynamics in water-limited systems was used to study the relationships between soil moisture and rainfall dynamics. Model sensitivity in response to different soil and vegetation parameters under diverse soil textures was also investigated. Our field observations showed that surface soil moisture dynamics generally follow rainfall patterns at the two gravel plain sites, whereas soil moisture dynamics in the sand dune site did not show a significant relationship with rainfall pattern. The modeling results suggested that most of the soil moisture dynamics can be simulated except the daily fluctuations, which may require a modification of the model structure to include non-rainfall components. Sensitivity analyses suggested that soil hygroscopic point (sh) and field capacity (sfc) were two main parameters controlling soil moisture output, though permanent wilting point (sw) was also very sensitive under the parameter setting of sand dune (Gobabeb) and gravel plain (Kleinberg). Overall, the modeling results were not sensitive to the parameters in non-bounded group (e.g., soil hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and soil porosity (n)). Field observations, stochastic modeling results as well as sensitivity analyses provide soil moisture baseline information for future monitoring and the prediction of soil moisture patterns in the Namib Desert.

The Impact of Rainfall on Soil Moisture Dynamics in a Foggy Desert

PubMed Central

Li, Bonan; Wang, Lixin; Kaseke, Kudzai F.; Li, Lin; Seely, Mary K.

2016-01-01

Soil moisture is a key variable in dryland ecosystems since it determines the occurrence and duration of vegetation water stress and affects the development of weather patterns including rainfall. However, the lack of ground observations of soil moisture and rainfall dynamics in many drylands has long been a major obstacle in understanding ecohydrological processes in these ecosystems. It is also uncertain to what extent rainfall controls soil moisture dynamics in fog dominated dryland systems. To this end, in this study, twelve to nineteen months’ continuous daily records of rainfall and soil moisture (from January 2014 to August 2015) obtained from three sites (one sand dune site and two gravel plain sites) in the Namib Desert are reported. A process-based model simulating the stochastic soil moisture dynamics in water-limited systems was used to study the relationships between soil moisture and rainfall dynamics. Model sensitivity in response to different soil and vegetation parameters under diverse soil textures was also investigated. Our field observations showed that surface soil moisture dynamics generally follow rainfall patterns at the two gravel plain sites, whereas soil moisture dynamics in the sand dune site did not show a significant relationship with rainfall pattern. The modeling results suggested that most of the soil moisture dynamics can be simulated except the daily fluctuations, which may require a modification of the model structure to include non-rainfall components. Sensitivity analyses suggested that soil hygroscopic point (sh) and field capacity (sfc) were two main parameters controlling soil moisture output, though permanent wilting point (sw) was also very sensitive under the parameter setting of sand dune (Gobabeb) and gravel plain (Kleinberg). Overall, the modeling results were not sensitive to the parameters in non-bounded group (e.g., soil hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and soil porosity (n)). Field observations, stochastic modeling results as well as sensitivity analyses provide soil moisture baseline information for future monitoring and the prediction of soil moisture patterns in the Namib Desert. PMID:27764203

Sensitivity of soil moisture initialization for decadal predictions under different regional climatic conditions in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khodayar, S.; Sehlinger, A.; Feldmann, H.; Kottmeier, C.

2015-12-01

The impact of soil initialization is investigated through perturbation simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. The focus of the investigation is to assess the sensitivity of simulated extreme periods, dry and wet, to soil moisture initialization in different climatic regions over Europe and to establish the necessary spin up time within the framework of decadal predictions for these regions. Sensitivity experiments consisted of a reference simulation from 1968 to 1999 and 5 simulations from 1972 to 1983. The Effective Drought Index (EDI) is used to select and quantify drought status in the reference run to establish the simulation time period for the sensitivity experiments. Different soil initialization procedures are investigated. The sensitivity of the decadal predictions to soil moisture initial conditions is investigated through the analysis of water cycle components' (WCC) variability. In an episodic time scale the local effects of soil moisture on the boundary-layer and the propagated effects on the large-scale dynamics are analysed. The results show: (a) COSMO-CLM reproduces the observed features of the drought index. (b) Soil moisture initialization exerts a relevant impact on WCC, e.g., precipitation distribution and intensity. (c) Regional characteristics strongly impact the response of the WCC. Precipitation and evapotranspiration deviations are larger for humid regions. (d) The initial soil conditions (wet/dry), the regional characteristics (humid/dry) and the annual period (wet/dry) play a key role in the time that soil needs to restore quasi-equilibrium and the impact on the atmospheric conditions. Humid areas, and for all regions, a humid initialization, exhibit shorter spin up times, also soil reacts more sensitive when initialised during dry periods. (e) The initial soil perturbation may markedly modify atmospheric pressure field, wind circulation systems and atmospheric water vapour distribution affecting atmospheric stability conditions, thus modifying precipitation intensity and distribution even several years after the initialization.

Exploring the potential of the cosmic-ray neutron method to measure interception storage dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakobi, Jannis; Bogena, Heye; Huisman, Johan Alexander; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Vereecken, Harry

2017-04-01

Cosmic-ray neutron soil moisture probes are an emerging technology that relies on the negative correlation between near-surface fast neutron counts and soil moisture content. Hydrogen atoms in the soil, which are mainly present as water, moderate the secondary neutrons on the way back to the surface. Any application of this method needs to consider the sensitivity of the neutron counts to additional sources of hydrogen (e.g. above- and below-ground biomass, humidity of the lower atmosphere, lattice water of the soil minerals, organic matter and water in the litter layer, intercepted water in the canopy, and soil organic matter). In this study, we analyzed the effects of canopy-intercepted water on the cosmic-ray neutron counts. For this, an arable field cropped with sugar beet was instrumented with several cosmic-ray neutron probes and a wireless sensor network with more than 140 in-situ soil moisture sensors. Additionally rainfall interception was estimated using a new approach coupling throughfall measurements and leaf wetness sensors. The derived interception storage was used to correct for interception effects on cosmic ray neutrons to enhance soil water content prediction. Furthermore, the potential for a simultaneous prediction of above- and below-ground biomass, soil moisture and interception was tested.

[Fire behavior of Mongolian oak leaves fuel-bed under no-wind and zero-slope conditions. I. Factors affecting fire spread rate and modeling].

PubMed

Jin, Sen; Liu, Bo-Fei; Di, Xue-Ying; Chu, Teng-Fei; Zhang, Ji-Li

2012-01-01

Aimed to understand the fire behavior of Mongolian oak leaves fuel-bed under field condition, the leaves of a secondary Mongolian oak forest in Northeast Forestry University experimental forest farm were collected and brought into laboratory to construct fuel-beds with varied loading, height, and moisture content, and a total of 100 experimental fires were burned under no-wind and zero-slope conditions. It was observed that the fire spread rate of the fuel-beds was less than 0.5 m x min(-1). Fuel-bed loading, height, and moisture contents all had significant effects on the fire spread rate. The effect of fuel-bed moisture content on the fire spread had no significant correlations with fuel-bed loading and height, but the effect of fuel-bed height was related to the fuel-bed loading. The packing ratio of fuel-beds had less effect on the fire spread rate. Taking the fuel-bed loading, height, and moisture content as predictive variables, a prediction model for the fire spread rate of Mongolian oak leaves fuel-bed was established, which could explain 83% of the variance of the fire spread rate, with a mean absolute error 0.04 m x min(-1) and a mean relative error less than 17%.

AGCM Biases in Evaporation Regime: Impacts on Soil Moisture Memory and Land-Atmosphere Feedback

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahanama, Sarith P. P.; Koster, Randal D.

2005-01-01

Because precipitation and net radiation in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are typically biased relative to observations, the simulated evaporative regime of a region may be biased, with consequent negative effects on the AGCM s ability to translate an initialized soil moisture anomaly into an improved seasonal prediction. These potential problems are investigated through extensive offline analyses with the Mosaic land surface model (LSM). We first forced the LSM globally with a 15-year observations-based dataset. We then repeated the simulation after imposing a representative set of GCM climate biases onto the forcings - the observational forcings were scaled so that their mean seasonal cycles matched those simulated by the NSIPP-1 (NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) AGCM over the same period-The AGCM s climate biases do indeed lead to significant biases in evaporative regime in certain regions, with the expected impacts on soil moisture memory timescales. Furthermore, the offline simulations suggest that the biased forcing in the AGCM should contribute to overestimated feedback in certain parts of North America - parts already identified in previous studies as having excessive feedback. The present study thus supports the notion that the reduction of climate biases in the AGCM will lead to more appropriate translations of soil moisture initialization into seasonal prediction skill.

The effects of vegetation cover on the radar and radiometric sensitivity to soil moisture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulaby, F. T.; Dobson, M. C.; Brunfeldt, D. R.; Razani, M.

1982-01-01

The measured effects of vegetation canopies on radar and radiometric sensitivity to soil moisture are compared to emission and scattering models. The models are found to predict accurately the measured emission and backscattering for various crop canopies at frequencies between 1.4 and 5.0 GHz, especially at theta equal to or less than 30 deg. Vegetation loss factors, L(theta), increase with frequency and are found to be dependent upon canopy type and water content. In addition, the radiometric power absorption coefficient of a mature corn canopy is 1.75 times that calculated for the radar. Comparison of an L-band radiometer with a C-band radar shows the two systems to be complementary in terms of accurate soil moisture sensing over the extreme range of naturally occurring soil moisture conditions.

Semantic Stability is More Pleasurable in Unstable Episodic Contexts. On the Relevance of Perceptual Challenge in Art Appreciation.

PubMed

Muth, Claudia; Raab, Marius H; Carbon, Claus-Christian

2016-01-01

Research in the field of psychological aesthetics points to the appeal of stimuli which defy easy recognition by being "semantically unstable" but which still allow for creating meaning-in the ongoing process of elaborative perception or as an end product of the entire process. Such effects were reported for hidden images (Muth and Carbon, 2013) as well as Cubist artworks concealing detectable-although fragmented-objects (Muth et al., 2013). To test the stability of the relationship between semantic determinacy and appreciation across different episodic contexts, 30 volunteers evaluated an artistic movie continuously on visual determinacy or liking via the Continuous Evaluation Procedure (CEP, Muth et al., 2015b). The movie consisted of five episodes with emerging Gestalts. In the first between-participants condition, the hidden Gestalts in the movie episodes were of increasing determinacy, in the second condition, the episodes showed decreasing determinacies of hidden Gestalts. In the increasing-determinacy group, visual determinacy was rated higher and showed better predictive quality for liking than in the decreasing-determinacy group. Furthermore, when the movie started with low visual determinacy of hidden Gestalts, unexpectedly strong increases in visual determinacy had a bigger effect on liking than in the condition which allowed for weaker Gestalt recognition after having started with highly determinate Gestalts. The resulting pattern calls for consideration of the episodic context when examining art appreciation.

Force, torque, linear momentum, and angular momentum in classical electr odynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansuripur, Masud

2017-10-01

The classical theory of electrodynamics is built upon Maxwell's equations and the concepts of electromagnetic (EM) field, force, energy, and momentum, which are intimately tied together by Poynting's theorem and by the Lorentz force law. Whereas Maxwell's equations relate the fields to their material sources, Poynting's theorem governs the flow of EM energy and its exchange between fields and material media, while the Lorentz law regulates the back-and-forth transfer of momentum between the media and the fields. An alternative force law, first proposed by Einstein and Laub, exists that is consistent with Maxwell's equations and complies with the conservation laws as well as with the requirements of special relativity. While the Lorentz law requires the introduction of hidden energy and hidden momentum in situations where an electric field acts on a magnetized medium, the Einstein-Laub (E-L) formulation of EM force and torque does not invoke hidden entities under such circumstances. Moreover, total force/torque exerted by EM fields on any given object turns out to be independent of whether the density of force/torque is evaluated using the law of Lorentz or that of Einstein and Laub. Hidden entities aside, the two formulations differ only in their predicted force and torque distributions inside matter. Such differences in distribution are occasionally measurable, and could serve as a guide in deciding which formulation, if either, corresponds to physical reality.

A fast and accurate online sequential learning algorithm for feedforward networks.

PubMed

Liang, Nan-Ying; Huang, Guang-Bin; Saratchandran, P; Sundararajan, N

2006-11-01

In this paper, we develop an online sequential learning algorithm for single hidden layer feedforward networks (SLFNs) with additive or radial basis function (RBF) hidden nodes in a unified framework. The algorithm is referred to as online sequential extreme learning machine (OS-ELM) and can learn data one-by-one or chunk-by-chunk (a block of data) with fixed or varying chunk size. The activation functions for additive nodes in OS-ELM can be any bounded nonconstant piecewise continuous functions and the activation functions for RBF nodes can be any integrable piecewise continuous functions. In OS-ELM, the parameters of hidden nodes (the input weights and biases of additive nodes or the centers and impact factors of RBF nodes) are randomly selected and the output weights are analytically determined based on the sequentially arriving data. The algorithm uses the ideas of ELM of Huang et al. developed for batch learning which has been shown to be extremely fast with generalization performance better than other batch training methods. Apart from selecting the number of hidden nodes, no other control parameters have to be manually chosen. Detailed performance comparison of OS-ELM is done with other popular sequential learning algorithms on benchmark problems drawn from the regression, classification and time series prediction areas. The results show that the OS-ELM is faster than the other sequential algorithms and produces better generalization performance.

A Regularized Linear Dynamical System Framework for Multivariate Time Series Analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2015-01-01

Linear Dynamical System (LDS) is an elegant mathematical framework for modeling and learning Multivariate Time Series (MTS). However, in general, it is difficult to set the dimension of an LDS's hidden state space. A small number of hidden states may not be able to model the complexities of a MTS, while a large number of hidden states can lead to overfitting. In this paper, we study learning methods that impose various regularization penalties on the transition matrix of the LDS model and propose a regularized LDS learning framework (rLDS) which aims to (1) automatically shut down LDSs' spurious and unnecessary dimensions, and consequently, address the problem of choosing the optimal number of hidden states; (2) prevent the overfitting problem given a small amount of MTS data; and (3) support accurate MTS forecasting. To learn the regularized LDS from data we incorporate a second order cone program and a generalized gradient descent method into the Maximum a Posteriori framework and use Expectation Maximization to obtain a low-rank transition matrix of the LDS model. We propose two priors for modeling the matrix which lead to two instances of our rLDS. We show that our rLDS is able to recover well the intrinsic dimensionality of the time series dynamics and it improves the predictive performance when compared to baselines on both synthetic and real-world MTS datasets.

Historical climate controls soil respiration responses to current soil moisture

PubMed Central

Waring, Bonnie G.; Rocca, Jennifer D.; Kivlin, Stephanie N.

2017-01-01

Ecosystem carbon losses from soil microbial respiration are a key component of global carbon cycling, resulting in the transfer of 40–70 Pg carbon from soil to the atmosphere each year. Because these microbial processes can feed back to climate change, understanding respiration responses to environmental factors is necessary for improved projections. We focus on respiration responses to soil moisture, which remain unresolved in ecosystem models. A common assumption of large-scale models is that soil microorganisms respond to moisture in the same way, regardless of location or climate. Here, we show that soil respiration is constrained by historical climate. We find that historical rainfall controls both the moisture dependence and sensitivity of respiration. Moisture sensitivity, defined as the slope of respiration vs. moisture, increased fourfold across a 480-mm rainfall gradient, resulting in twofold greater carbon loss on average in historically wetter soils compared with historically drier soils. The respiration–moisture relationship was resistant to environmental change in field common gardens and field rainfall manipulations, supporting a persistent effect of historical climate on microbial respiration. Based on these results, predicting future carbon cycling with climate change will require an understanding of the spatial variation and temporal lags in microbial responses created by historical rainfall. PMID:28559315

The sensitivity of US wildfire occurrence to pre-season soil moisture conditions across ecosystems.

PubMed

Jensen, Daniel; Reager, John T; Zajic, Brittany; Rousseau, Nick; Rodell, Matthew; Hinkley, Everett

2018-01-01

It is generally accepted that year-to-year variability in moisture conditions and drought are linked with increased wildfire occurrence. However, quantifying the sensitivity of wildfire to surface moisture state at seasonal lead-times has been challenging due to the absence of a long soil moisture record with the appropriate coverage and spatial resolution for continental-scale analysis. Here we apply model simulations of surface soil moisture that numerically assimilate observations from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission with the US Forest Service's historical Fire-Occurrence Database over the contiguous United States. We quantify the relationships between pre-fire-season soil moisture and subsequent-year wildfire occurrence by land-cover type and produce annual probable wildfire occurrence and burned area maps at 0.25-degree resolution. Cross-validated results generally indicate a higher occurrence of smaller fires when months preceding fire season are wet, while larger fires are more frequent when soils are dry. This result is consistent with the concept of increased fuel accumulation under wet conditions in the pre-season. These results demonstrate the fundamental strength of the relationship between soil moisture and fire activity at long lead-times and are indicative of that relationship's utility for the future development of national-scale predictive capability.

The sensitivity of US wildfire occurrence to pre-season soil moisture conditions across ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Daniel; Reager, John T.; Zajic, Brittany; Rousseau, Nick; Rodell, Matthew; Hinkley, Everett

2018-01-01

It is generally accepted that year-to-year variability in moisture conditions and drought are linked with increased wildfire occurrence. However, quantifying the sensitivity of wildfire to surface moisture state at seasonal lead-times has been challenging due to the absence of a long soil moisture record with the appropriate coverage and spatial resolution for continental-scale analysis. Here we apply model simulations of surface soil moisture that numerically assimilate observations from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission with the USDA Forest Service’s historical Fire-Occurrence Database over the contiguous United States. We quantify the relationships between pre-fire-season soil moisture and subsequent-year wildfire occurrence by land-cover type and produce annual probable wildfire occurrence and burned area maps at 0.25 degree resolution. Cross-validated results generally indicate a higher occurrence of smaller fires when months preceding fire season are wet, while larger fires are more frequent when soils are dry. This is consistent with the concept of increased fuel accumulation under wet conditions in the pre-season. These results demonstrate the fundamental strength of the relationship between soil moisture and fire activity at long lead-times and are indicative of that relationship’s utility for the future development of national-scale predictive capability.

Hidden Hearing Loss and Computational Models of the Auditory Pathway: Predicting Speech Intelligibility Decline

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-28

of low spontaneous rate auditory nerve fibers (ANFs) and reduction of auditory brainstem response wave-I amplitudes. The goal of this research is...auditory nerve (AN) responses to speech stimuli under a variety of difficult listening conditions. The resulting cochlear neurogram, a spectrogram

Our Hidden Past: The Prophet of Oak Ridge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Ray; Crawford, Grace Raby

John Hendrix, who was born in 1865 and died in 1915, is said to have slept on the ground for 40 nights in Bear Creek Valley. He later predicted that, "A huge factory will be built in Bear Creek Valley that will help win the greatest war there will ever be."

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission - Science and Data Product Development Status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nloku, E.; Entekhabi, D.; O'Neill, P.

2012-01-01

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, planned for launch in late 2014, has the objective of frequent, global mapping of near-surface soil moisture and its freeze-thaw state. The SMAP measurement system utilizes an L-band radar and radiometer sharing a rotating 6-meter mesh reflector antenna. The instruments will operate on a spacecraft in a 685 km polar orbit with 6am/6pm nodal crossings, viewing the surface at a constant 40-degree incidence angle with a 1000-km swath width, providing 3-day global coverage. Data from the instruments will yield global maps of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state at 10 km and 3 km resolutions, respectively, every two to three days. The 10-km soil moisture product will be generated using a combined radar and radiometer retrieval algorithm. SMAP will also provide a radiometer-only soil moisture product at 40-km spatial resolution and a radar-only soil moisture product at 3-km resolution. The relative accuracies of these products will vary regionally and will depend on surface characteristics such as vegetation water content, vegetation type, surface roughness, and landscape heterogeneity. The SMAP soil moisture and freeze/thaw measurements will enable significantly improved estimates of the fluxes of water, energy and carbon between the land and atmosphere. Soil moisture and freeze/thaw controls of these fluxes are key factors in the performance of models used for weather and climate predictions and for quantifYing the global carbon balance. Soil moisture measurements are also of importance in modeling and predicting extreme events such as floods and droughts. The algorithms and data products for SMAP are being developed in the SMAP Science Data System (SDS) Testbed. In the Testbed algorithms are developed and evaluated using simulated SMAP observations as well as observational data from current airborne and spaceborne L-band sensors including data from the SMOS and Aquarius missions. We report here on the development status of the SMAP data products. The Testbed simulations are designed to capture various sources of errors in the products including environment effects, instrument effects (nonideal aspects of the measurement system), and retrieval algorithm errors. The SMAP project has developed a Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Plan that is designed to support algorithm development (pre-launch) and data product validation (post-launch). A key component of the Cal/Val Plan is the identification, characterization, and instrumentation of sites that can be used to calibrate and validate the sensor data (Level l) and derived geophysical products (Level 2 and higher).

Photoproduction of hidden-charm states in the reaction near threshold

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yin; Xie, Ju-Jun; He, Jun; Chen, Xurong; Zhang, Hong-Fei

2016-12-01

We report on a theoretical study of the hidden charm states in the reaction near threshold within an effective Lagrangian approach. In addition to the contributions from the s-channel nucleon pole, the t-channel D0 exchange, the u-channel exchange and the contact term, we study the contributions from the states with spin-parity JP = 1/2- and 3/2-. The total and differential cross sections of the reaction are predicted. It is found that the contributions of these states give clear peak structures in the total cross sections. Thus, this reaction is another new platform to study the hidden-charm states. It is expected that our model calculation may be tested by future experiments. Supported by Major State Basic Research Development Program in China (2014CB845400), National Natural Science Foundation of China (11475227, 11275235, 11035006) and Chinese Academy of Sciences (Knowledge Innovation Project (KJCX2-EW-N01), Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS (2016367), Open Project Program of State Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China (Y5KF151CJ1)

Neutrino mixing in SO(10) GUTs with a non-Abelian flavor symmetry in the hidden sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smirnov, Alexei Yu.; Xu, Xun-Jie

2018-05-01

The relation between the mixing matrices of leptons and quarks, UPMNS≈VCKM†U0 , where U0 is a matrix of special forms [e.g., bimaximal (BM) and tribimaximal], can be a clue for understanding the lepton mixing and neutrino masses. It may imply the grand unification and the existence of a hidden sector with certain symmetry that generates U0 and leads to the smallness of neutrino masses. We apply the residual symmetry approach to obtain U0. The residual symmetries of both the visible and hidden sectors are Z2×Z2 . Their embedding in a unified flavor group is considered. We find that there are only several possible structures of U0, including the BM mixing and matrices with elements determined by the golden ratio. Realization of the BM scenario based on the SO(10) grand unified theory with the S4 flavor group is presented. Generic features of this scenario are discussed, in particular, the prediction of C P phase 14 4 ° ≲δCP≲21 0 ° in the minimal version.

Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters-Lidard, Christa; Eylander, John B.; Koster, Randall; Narapusetty, Balachandrudu; Kumar, Sujay; Rodell, Matt; Bolten, John; Mocko, David; Walker, Gregory; Arsenault, Kristi;

Supersymmetric leptogenesis with a light hidden sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Simone, Andrea; Garny, Mathias; Ibarra, Alejandro; Weniger, Christoph

2010-07-01

Supersymmetric scenarios incorporating thermal leptogenesis as the origin of the observed matter-antimatter asymmetry generically predict abundances of the primordial elements which are in conflict with observations. In this paper we propose a simple way to circumvent this tension and accommodate naturally thermal leptogenesis and primordial nucleosynthesis. We postulate the existence of a light hidden sector, coupled very weakly to the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model, which opens up new decay channels for the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle, thus diluting its abundance during nucleosynthesis. We present a general model-independent analysis of this mechanism as well as two concrete realizations, and describe the relevant cosmological and astrophysical bounds and implications for this dark matter scenario. Possible experimental signatures at colliders and in cosmic-ray observations are also discussed.

Hidden Markov model analysis of force/torque information in telemanipulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hannaford, Blake; Lee, Paul

1991-01-01

A model for the prediction and analysis of sensor information recorded during robotic performance of telemanipulation tasks is presented. The model uses the hidden Markov model to describe the task structure, the operator's or intelligent controller's goal structure, and the sensor signals. A methodology for constructing the model parameters based on engineering knowledge of the task is described. It is concluded that the model and its optimal state estimation algorithm, the Viterbi algorithm, are very succesful at the task of segmenting the data record into phases corresponding to subgoals of the task. The model provides a rich modeling structure within a statistical framework, which enables it to represent complex systems and be robust to real-world sensory signals.

Biomarker selection and classification of "-omics" data using a two-step bayes classification framework.

PubMed

Assawamakin, Anunchai; Prueksaaroon, Supakit; Kulawonganunchai, Supasak; Shaw, Philip James; Varavithya, Vara; Ruangrajitpakorn, Taneth; Tongsima, Sissades

2013-01-01

Identification of suitable biomarkers for accurate prediction of phenotypic outcomes is a goal for personalized medicine. However, current machine learning approaches are either too complex or perform poorly. Here, a novel two-step machine-learning framework is presented to address this need. First, a Naïve Bayes estimator is used to rank features from which the top-ranked will most likely contain the most informative features for prediction of the underlying biological classes. The top-ranked features are then used in a Hidden Naïve Bayes classifier to construct a classification prediction model from these filtered attributes. In order to obtain the minimum set of the most informative biomarkers, the bottom-ranked features are successively removed from the Naïve Bayes-filtered feature list one at a time, and the classification accuracy of the Hidden Naïve Bayes classifier is checked for each pruned feature set. The performance of the proposed two-step Bayes classification framework was tested on different types of -omics datasets including gene expression microarray, single nucleotide polymorphism microarray (SNParray), and surface-enhanced laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight (SELDI-TOF) proteomic data. The proposed two-step Bayes classification framework was equal to and, in some cases, outperformed other classification methods in terms of prediction accuracy, minimum number of classification markers, and computational time.

KSC-2015-1130

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-13

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive mission, or SMAP, satellite is mated to its Delta II rocket at Space Launch Complex 2. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://smap.jpl.nasa.gov Photo credit: NASA/Randy Beaudoin

KSC-2015-1129

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-13

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive mission, or SMAP, satellite is mated to its Delta II rocket at Space Launch Complex 2. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://smap.jpl.nasa.gov Photo credit: NASA/Randy Beaudoin

KSC-2015-1109

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-08

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – Inside the Astrotech payload processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, engineers and technicians inspect NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive mission, or SMAP, satellite. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://smap.jpl.nasa.gov Photo credit: Jeremy Moore, USAF Photo Squadron

KSC-2015-1111

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-08

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – Inside the Astrotech payload processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, engineers and technicians inspect NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive mission, or SMAP, satellite. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://smap.jpl.nasa.gov Photo credit: Jeremy Moore, USAF Photo Squadron

KSC-2015-1128

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-13

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive mission, or SMAP, satellite is mated to its Delta II rocket at Space Launch Complex 2. SMAP will provide global measurements of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state. These measurements will be used to enhance understanding of processes that link the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to extend the capabilities of weather and climate prediction models. SMAP data also will be used to quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes and to develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capabilities. Launch is scheduled for Jan. 29, 2015. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://smap.jpl.nasa.gov Photo credit: NASA/Randy Beaudoin

Agricultural soil moisture experiment, Colby, Kansas 1978: Measured and predicted hydrological properties of the soil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arya, L. M. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

Predictive procedures for developing soil hydrologic properties (i.e., relationships of soil water pressure and hydraulic conductivity to soil water content) are presented. Three models of the soil water pressure-water content relationship and one model of the hydraulic conductivity-water content relationship are discussed. Input requirements for the models are indicated, and computational procedures are outlined. Computed hydrologic properties for Keith silt loam, a soil typer near Colby, Kansas, on which the 1978 Agricultural Soil Moisture Experiment was conducted, are presented. A comparison of computed results with experimental data in the dry range shows that analytical models utilizing a few basic hydrophysical parameters can produce satisfactory data for large-scale applications.

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in the NASA Land Information System for Local Modeling Applications and Improved Situational Awareness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Blakenship, Clay B.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.

2014-01-01

As part of the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Early Adopter (EA) program, the NASA Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has implemented a data assimilation (DA) routine into the NASA Land Information System (LIS) for soil moisture retrievals from the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. The SMAP EA program promotes application-driven research to provide a fundamental understanding of how SMAP data products will be used to improve decision-making at operational agencies. SPoRT has partnered with select NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) that use output from a real-time regional configuration of LIS, without soil moisture DA, to initialize local numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and enhance situational awareness. Improvements to local NWP with the current LIS have been demonstrated; however, a better representation of the land surface through assimilation of SMOS (and eventually SMAP) retrievals is expected to lead to further model improvement, particularly during warm-season months. SPoRT will collaborate with select WFOs to assess the impact of soil moisture DA on operational forecast situations. Assimilation of the legacy SMOS instrument data provides an opportunity to develop expertise in preparation for using SMAP data products shortly after the scheduled launch on 5 November 2014. SMOS contains a passive L-band radiometer that is used to retrieve surface soil moisture at 35-km resolution with an accuracy of 0.04 cu cm cm (exp -3). SMAP will feature a comparable passive L-band instrument in conjunction with a 3-km resolution active radar component of slightly degraded accuracy. A combined radar-radiometer product will offer unprecedented global coverage of soil moisture at high spatial resolution (9 km) for hydrometeorological applications, balancing the resolution and accuracy of the active and passive instruments, respectively. The LIS software framework manages land surface model (LSM) simulations and includes an Ensemble Kalman Filter for conducting land surface DA. SPoRT has added a module to read, quality-control and bias-correct swaths of Level II SMOS soil moisture retrievals prior to assimilation within LIS. The impact of SMOS DA is being tested using the Noah LSM. Experiments are being conducted to examine the impacts of SMOS soil moisture DA on the resulting LISNoah fields and subsequent NWP simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized with LIS-Noah output. LIS-Noah soil moisture will be validated against in situ observations from Texas A&M's North American Soil Moisture Database to reveal the impact and possible improvement in soil moisture trends through DA. WRF model NWP case studies will test the impacts of DA on the simulated near-surface and boundary-layer environments, and precipitation during both quiescent and disturbed weather scenarios. Emphasis will be placed on cases with large analysis increments, especially due to contributions from regional irrigation patterns that are not represented by precipitation input in the baseline LIS-Noah run. This poster presentation will describe the soil moisture DA methodology and highlight LIS-Noah and WRF simulation results with and without assimilation.

What water isotopes tell us about water cycle responses to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raudzens Bailey, A.; Singh, H. A.; Nusbaumer, J. M.; Dee, S.; Blossey, P. N.; Posmentier, E. S.

2017-12-01

The water cycle is expected to respond strongly to rising global temperatures. Models predict regional imbalances in evaporation and precipitation will intensify, resulting in a slowing of the large-scale circulation. This slowing will extend the moisture length scale by increasing the amount of time water resides in the atmosphere. However, verifying these changes observationally is challenging. Isotope ratios in water vapor and precipitation represent an integrated record of moisture's journey from evaporative source to precipitation sink. Consequently, they provide a unique opportunity to identify changes in moisture length scale associated with shifts in regional hydrologic balance. Leveraging satellite retrievals, box models, climate simulations, and in situ data, this presentation demonstrates how water isotope ratios can be used to estimate water cycle changes over the historical period and into the future. These changes are closely linked to variations in the divergence of atmospheric moisture fluxes, which result from variations in specific humidity, wind direction, and wind speed. This presentation highlights the extent to which isotopic measurements allow us to track changes in the dynamic, or wind-driven, component of moisture transport and to investigate whether remote moisture contributions are becoming increasingly important in augmenting local precipitation.

The Implementation and Evaluation of the Emergency Response Dose Assessment System (ERDAS) at Cape Canaveral Air Station/Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Randolph J.; Tremback, Craig J.; Lyons, Walter A.

1996-01-01

The Emergency Response Dose Assessment System (ERDAS) is a system which combines the mesoscale meteorological prediction model RAMS with the diffusion models REEDM and HYPACT. Operators use a graphical user interface to run the models for emergency response and toxic hazard planning at CCAS/KCS. The Applied Meteorology Unit has been evaluating the ERDAS meteorological and diffusion models and obtained the following results: (1) RAMS adequately predicts the occurrence of the daily sea breeze during non-cloudy conditions for several cases. (2) RAMS shows a tendency to predict the sea breeze to occur slightly earlier and to move it further inland than observed. The sea breeze predictions could most likely be improved by better parameterizing the soil moisture and/or sea surface temperatures. (3) The HYPACT/REEDM/RAMS models accurately predict launch plume locations when RAMS winds are accurate and when the correct plume layer is modeled. (4) HYPACT does not adequately handle plume buoyancy for heated plumes since all plumes are presently treated as passive tracers. Enhancements should be incorporated into the ERDAS as it moves toward being a fully operational system and as computer workstations continue to increase in power and decrease in cost. These enhancements include the following: activate RAMS moisture physics; use finer RAMS grid resolution; add RAMS input parameters (e.g. soil moisture, radar, and/or satellite data); automate data quality control; implement four-dimensional data assimilation; modify HYPACT plume rise and deposition physics; and add cumulative dosage calculations in HYPACT.

Dominating Controls for Wetter South Asian Summer Monsoon in the Twenty-First Century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mei, Rui; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

We analyze a suite of Global Climate Models from the 5th Phase of Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archives to understand the mechanisms behind a net increase in the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in response to enhanced radiative forcing during the 21st century despite a robust weakening of dynamics governing the monsoon circulation. Combining the future changes in the contributions from various sources, which contribute to the moisture supply over South Asia, with those in monsoon dynamics and atmospheric moisture content, we establish a pathway of understanding that partly explains these counteracting responses to increase in radiative forcing. Ourmore » analysis suggests that both regional (local recycling, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal) and remote (mainly Indian Ocean) sources contribute to the moisture supply for precipitation over South Asia during the summer season that is facilitated by the monsoon dynamics. Increase in radiative forcing fuels an increase in the atmospheric moisture content through warmer temperatures. For regional moisture sources, the effect of excessive atmospheric moisture is offset by weaker monsoon circulation and uncertainty in the response of the evapotranspiration over land, so anomalies in their contribution to the total moisture supply are either mixed or muted. In contrast, weakening of the monsoon dynamics has less influence on the moisture supply from remote sources that not only is a dominant moisture contributor in the historical period, but is also the net driver of the positive summer monsoon precipitation response in the 21st century. Our results also indicate that historic measures of the monsoon dynamics may not be well suited to predict the non-stationary moisture driven South Asian summer monsoon precipitation response in the 21st century.« less

The impact of fog on soil moisture dynamics in the Namib Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bonan; Wang, Lixin; Kaseke, Kudzai F.; Vogt, Roland; Li, Lin; Seely, Mary K.

2018-03-01

Soil moisture is a crucial component supporting vegetation dynamics in drylands. Despite increasing attention on fog in dryland ecosystems, the statistical characterization of fog distribution and how fog affects soil moisture dynamics have not been seen in literature. To this end, daily fog records over two years (Dec 1, 2014-Nov 1, 2016) from three sites within the Namib Desert were used to characterize fog distribution. Two sites were located within the Gobabeb Research and Training Center vicinity, the gravel plains and the sand dunes. The third site was located at the gravel plains, Kleinberg. A subset of the fog data during rainless period was used to investigate the effect of fog on soil moisture. A stochastic modeling framework was used to simulate the effect of fog on soil moisture dynamics. Our results showed that fog distribution can be characterized by a Poisson process with two parameters (arrival rate λ and average depth α (mm)). Fog and soil moisture observations from eighty (Aug 19, 2015-Nov 6, 2015) rainless days indicated a moderate positive relationship between soil moisture and fog in the Gobabeb gravel plains, a weaker relationship in the Gobabeb sand dunes while no relationship was observed at the Kleinberg site. The modeling results suggested that mean and major peaks of soil moisture dynamics can be captured by the fog modeling. Our field observations demonstrated the effects of fog on soil moisture dynamics during rainless periods at some locations, which has important implications on soil biogeochemical processes. The statistical characterization and modeling of fog distribution are of great value to predict fog distribution and investigate the effects of potential changes in fog distribution on soil moisture dynamics.

Forest litter crickets prefer higher substrate moisture for oviposition: Evidence from field and lab experiments

PubMed Central

Sperber, Carlos Frankl; Albeny-Simões, Daniel; Breaux, Jennifer Ann; Fianco, Marcos; Szinwelski, Neucir

2017-01-01

For insects, choosing a favorable oviposition site is a type of parental care, as far as it increases the fitness of its offspring. Niche theory predicts that crickets should show a bell-shaped oviposition response to substrate moisture. However, lab experiments with mole crickets showed a linear oviposition response to substrate moisture. Studies with the house cricket Acheta domesticus also showed a linear juvenile body growth response to water availability, thus adult ovipositing females should respond positively to substrate moisture. We used a field experiment to evaluate the relationship between oviposition preference and substrate moisture in forest litter-dwelling cricket species. We also evaluated oviposition responses to substrate moisture level in Ubiquepuella telytokous, the most abundant litter cricket species in our study area, using a laboratory study. We offered cotton substrate for oviposition which varied in substrate moisture level from zero (i.e., dry) to maximum water absorption capacity. We used two complementary metrics to evaluate oviposition preference: (i) presence or absence of eggs in each sampling unit as binary response variable, and (ii) number of eggs oviposited per sampling unit as count response variable. To test for non-linear responses, we adjusted generalized additive models (GAMM) with mixed effects. We found that both cricket oviposition probability and effort (i.e., number of eggs laid) increased linearly with substrate moisture in the field experiment, and for U. telytokous in the lab experiment. We discarded any non-linear responses. Our results demonstrate the importance of substrate moisture as an ecological niche dimension for litter crickets. This work bolsters knowledge of litter cricket life history association with moisture, and suggests that litter crickets may be particularly threatened by changes in climate that favor habitat drying. PMID:28977023

Forest litter crickets prefer higher substrate moisture for oviposition: Evidence from field and lab experiments.

PubMed

de Farias-Martins, Fernando; Sperber, Carlos Frankl; Albeny-Simões, Daniel; Breaux, Jennifer Ann; Fianco, Marcos; Szinwelski, Neucir

2017-01-01

For insects, choosing a favorable oviposition site is a type of parental care, as far as it increases the fitness of its offspring. Niche theory predicts that crickets should show a bell-shaped oviposition response to substrate moisture. However, lab experiments with mole crickets showed a linear oviposition response to substrate moisture. Studies with the house cricket Acheta domesticus also showed a linear juvenile body growth response to water availability, thus adult ovipositing females should respond positively to substrate moisture. We used a field experiment to evaluate the relationship between oviposition preference and substrate moisture in forest litter-dwelling cricket species. We also evaluated oviposition responses to substrate moisture level in Ubiquepuella telytokous, the most abundant litter cricket species in our study area, using a laboratory study. We offered cotton substrate for oviposition which varied in substrate moisture level from zero (i.e., dry) to maximum water absorption capacity. We used two complementary metrics to evaluate oviposition preference: (i) presence or absence of eggs in each sampling unit as binary response variable, and (ii) number of eggs oviposited per sampling unit as count response variable. To test for non-linear responses, we adjusted generalized additive models (GAMM) with mixed effects. We found that both cricket oviposition probability and effort (i.e., number of eggs laid) increased linearly with substrate moisture in the field experiment, and for U. telytokous in the lab experiment. We discarded any non-linear responses. Our results demonstrate the importance of substrate moisture as an ecological niche dimension for litter crickets. This work bolsters knowledge of litter cricket life history association with moisture, and suggests that litter crickets may be particularly threatened by changes in climate that favor habitat drying.

Study Variability of Seasonal Soil Moisture in Ensemble of CMIP5 Models Over South Asia During 1950-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fahim, A. M.; Shen, R.; Yue, Z.; Di, W.; Mushtaq Shah, S.

2015-12-01

Moisture in the upper most layer of soil column from 14 different models under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) project were analyzed for four seasons of the year. Aim of this study was to explore variability in soil moisture over south Asia using multi model ensemble and relationship between summer rainfall and soil moisture for spring and summer season. GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) dataset set was used for comparing CMIP5 ensemble mean soil moisture in different season. Ensemble mean represents soil moisture well in accordance with the geographical features; prominent arid regions are indicated profoundly. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis was applied to study the variability. First component of EOF explains 17%, 16%, 11% and 11% variability for spring, summer, autumn and winter season respectively. Analysis reveal increasing trend in soil moisture over most parts of Afghanistan, Central and north western parts of Pakistan, northern India and eastern to south eastern parts of China, in spring season. During summer, south western part of India exhibits highest negative trend while rest of the study area show minute trend (increasing or decreasing). In autumn, south west of India is under highest negative loadings. During winter season, north western parts of study area show decreasing trend. Summer rainfall has very week (negative or positive) spatial correlation, with spring soil moisture, while possess higher correlation with summer soil moisture. Our studies have significant contribution to understand complex nature of land - atmosphere interactions, as soil moisture prediction plays an important role in the cycle of sink and source of many air pollutants. Next level of research should be on filling the gaps between accurately measuring the soil moisture using satellite remote sensing and land surface modelling. Impact of soil moisture in tracking down different types of pollutant will also be studied.

An ensemble-based algorithm for optimizing the configuration of an in situ soil moisture monitoring network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Vleeschouwer, Niels; Verhoest, Niko E. C.; Gobeyn, Sacha; De Baets, Bernard; Verwaeren, Jan; Pauwels, Valentijn R. N.

2015-04-01

The continuous monitoring of soil moisture in a permanent network can yield an interesting data product for use in hydrological modeling. Major advantages of in situ observations compared to remote sensing products are the potential vertical extent of the measurements, the smaller temporal resolution of the observation time series, the smaller impact of land cover variability on the observation bias, etc. However, two major disadvantages are the typically small integration volume of in situ measurements, and the often large spacing between monitoring locations. This causes only a small part of the modeling domain to be directly observed. Furthermore, the spatial configuration of the monitoring network is typically non-dynamic in time. Generally, e.g. when applying data assimilation, maximizing the observed information under given circumstances will lead to a better qualitative and quantitative insight of the hydrological system. It is therefore advisable to perform a prior analysis in order to select those monitoring locations which are most predictive for the unobserved modeling domain. This research focuses on optimizing the configuration of a soil moisture monitoring network in the catchment of the Bellebeek, situated in Belgium. A recursive algorithm, strongly linked to the equations of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, has been developed to select the most predictive locations in the catchment. The basic idea behind the algorithm is twofold. On the one hand a minimization of the modeled soil moisture ensemble error covariance between the different monitoring locations is intended. This causes the monitoring locations to be as independent as possible regarding the modeled soil moisture dynamics. On the other hand, the modeled soil moisture ensemble error covariance between the monitoring locations and the unobserved modeling domain is maximized. The latter causes a selection of monitoring locations which are more predictive towards unobserved locations. The main factors that will influence the outcome of the algorithm are the following: the choice of the hydrological model, the uncertainty model applied for ensemble generation, the general wetness of the catchment during which the error covariance is computed, etc. In this research the influence of the latter two is examined more in-depth. Furthermore, the optimal network configuration resulting from the newly developed algorithm is compared to network configurations obtained by two other algorithms. The first algorithm is based on a temporal stability analysis of the modeled soil moisture in order to identify catchment representative monitoring locations with regard to average conditions. The second algorithm involves the clustering of available spatially distributed data (e.g. land cover and soil maps) that is not obtained by hydrological modeling.

A missing piece of the puzzle in climate change hotspots: Near-surface turbulent interactions controlling ET-soil moisture coupling in semiarid areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haghighi, Erfan; Gianotti, Daniel J.; Rigden, Angela J.; Salvucci, Guido D.; Kirchner, James W.; Entekhabi, Dara

2017-04-01

Being located in the transitional zone between dry and wet climate areas, semiarid ecosystems (and their associated ecohydrological processes) play a critical role in controlling climate change and global warming. Land evapotranspiration (ET), which is a central process in the climate system and a nexus of the water, energy and carbon cycles, typically accounts for up to 95% of the water budget in semiarid areas. Thus, the manner in which ET is partitioned into soil evaporation and plant transpiration in these settings is of practical importance for water and carbon cycling and their feedbacks to the climate system. ET (and its partitioning) in these regions is primarily controlled by surface soil moisture which varies episodically under stochastic precipitation inputs. Important as the ET-soil moisture relationship is, it remains empirical, and physical mechanisms governing its nature and dynamics are underexplored. Thus, the objective of this study is twofold: (1) to provide observational evidence for the influence of surface cover conditions on ET-soil moisture coupling in semiarid regions using soil moisture data from NASA's SMAP satellite mission combined with independent observationally based ET estimates, and (2) to develop a relatively simple mechanistic modeling platform improving our physical understanding of interactions between micro and macroscale processes controlling ET and its partitioning in partially vegetated areas. To this end, we invoked concepts from recent progress in mechanistic modeling of turbulent energy flux exchange in bluff-rough regions, and developed a physically based ET model that explicitly accounts for how vegetation-induced turbulence in the near-surface region influences soil drying and thus ET rates and dynamics. Model predictions revealed nonlinearities in the strength of the ET-soil moisture relationship (i.e., ∂ET/∂θ) as vegetation cover fraction increases, accounted for by the nonlinearity of surface-cover-dependent turbulent interactions. We identified a (predictable) critical vegetation cover fraction (as a function of vegetation stature and environmental conditions) that yields the strongest ET-soil moisture relationship under prescribed atmospheric conditions. Overall, the results suggest that ∂ET/ ∂θ varies more widely in regions with tall-stature woody vegetation that experience higher rates of change in turbulence intensity as the cover fraction increases. Our results facilitate a mathematically tractable description of ∂ET/ ∂θ, which is a core component of models that seek to predict hydrology-climate feedback processes in a changing climate.

Simplified continuous simulation model for investigating effects of controlled drainage on long-term soil moisture dynamics with a shallow groundwater table.

PubMed

Sun, Huaiwei; Tong, Juxiu; Luo, Wenbing; Wang, Xiugui; Yang, Jinzhong

2016-08-01

Accurate modeling of soil water content is required for a reasonable prediction of crop yield and of agrochemical leaching in the field. However, complex mathematical models faced the difficult-to-calibrate parameters and the distinct knowledge between the developers and users. In this study, a deterministic model is presented and is used to investigate the effects of controlled drainage on soil moisture dynamics in a shallow groundwater area. This simplified one-dimensional model is formulated to simulate soil moisture in the field on a daily basis and takes into account only the vertical hydrological processes. A linear assumption is proposed and is used to calculate the capillary rise from the groundwater. The pipe drainage volume is calculated by using a steady-state approximation method and the leakage rate is calculated as a function of soil moisture. The model is successfully calibrated by using field experiment data from four different pipe drainage treatments with several field observations. The model was validated by comparing the simulations with observed soil water content during the experimental seasons. The comparison results demonstrated the robustness and effectiveness of the model in the prediction of average soil moisture values. The input data required to run the model are widely available and can be measured easily in the field. It is observed that controlled drainage results in lower groundwater contribution to the root zone and lower depth of percolation to the groundwater, thus helping in the maintenance of a low level of soil salinity in the root zone.

Impacts of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration patterns on downscaling soil moisture in regions with large topographic relief

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowley, Garret S.; Niemann, Jeffrey D.; Green, Timothy R.; Seyfried, Mark S.; Jones, Andrew S.; Grazaitis, Peter J.

2017-02-01

Soil moisture can be estimated at coarse resolutions (>1 km) using satellite remote sensing, but that resolution is poorly suited for many applications. The Equilibrium Moisture from Topography, Vegetation, and Soil (EMT+VS) model downscales coarse-resolution soil moisture using fine-resolution topographic, vegetation, and soil data to produce fine-resolution (10-30 m) estimates of soil moisture. The EMT+VS model performs well at catchments with low topographic relief (≤124 m), but it has not been applied to regions with larger ranges of elevation. Large relief can produce substantial variations in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), which might affect the fine-resolution patterns of soil moisture. In this research, simple methods to downscale temporal average precipitation and PET are developed and included in the EMT+VS model, and the effects of spatial variations in these variables on the surface soil moisture estimates are investigated. The methods are tested against ground truth data at the 239 km2 Reynolds Creek watershed in southern Idaho, which has 1145 m of relief. The precipitation and PET downscaling methods are able to capture the main features in the spatial patterns of both variables. The space-time Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients of efficiency of the fine-resolution soil moisture estimates improve from 0.33 to 0.36 and 0.41 when the precipitation and PET downscaling methods are included, respectively. PET downscaling provides a larger improvement in the soil moisture estimates than precipitation downscaling likely because the PET pattern is more persistent through time, and thus more predictable, than the precipitation pattern.

Using SMAP to identify structural errors in hydrologic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crow, W. T.; Reichle, R. H.; Chen, F.; Xia, Y.; Liu, Q.

2017-12-01

Despite decades of effort, and the development of progressively more complex models, there continues to be underlying uncertainty regarding the representation of basic water and energy balance processes in land surface models. Soil moisture occupies a central conceptual position between atmosphere forcing of the land surface and resulting surface water fluxes. As such, direct observations of soil moisture are potentially of great value for identifying and correcting fundamental structural problems affecting these models. However, to date, this potential has not yet been realized using satellite-based retrieval products. Using soil moisture data sets produced by the NASA Soil Moisture Active/Passive mission, this presentation will explore the use of the remotely-sensed soil moisture data products as a constraint to reject certain types of surface runoff parameterizations within a land surface model. Results will demonstrate that the precision of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root-Zone soil moisture product allows for the robust sampling of correlation statistics describing the true strength of the relationship between pre-storm soil moisture and subsequent storm-scale runoff efficiency (i.e., total storm flow divided by total rainfall both in units of depth). For a set of 16 basins located in the South-Central United States, we will use these sampled correlations to demonstrate that so-called "infiltration-excess" runoff parameterizations under predict the importance of pre-storm soil moisture for determining storm-scale runoff efficiency. To conclude, we will discuss prospects for leveraging this insight to improve short-term hydrologic forecasting and additional avenues for SMAP soil moisture products to provide process-level insight for hydrologic modelers.

A Time Series Analysis of Global Soil Moisture Data Products for Water Cycle Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, X.; Yin, J.; Liu, J.; Fang, L.; Hain, C.; Ferraro, R. R.; Weng, F.

2017-12-01

Water is essential for sustaining life on our planet Earth and water cycle is one of the most important processes of out weather and climate system. As one of the major components of the water cycle, soil moisture impacts significantly the other water cycle components (e.g. evapotranspiration, runoff, etc) and the carbon cycle (e.g. plant/crop photosynthesis and respiration). Understanding of soil moisture status and dynamics is crucial for monitoring and predicting the weather, climate, hydrology and ecological processes. Satellite remote sensing has been used for soil moisture observation since the launch of the Scanning Multi-channel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on NASA's Nimbus-7 satellite in 1978. Many satellite soil moisture data products have been made available to the science communities and general public. The soil moisture operational product system (SMOPS) of NOAA NESDIS has been operationally providing global soil moisture data products from each of the currently available microwave satellite sensors and their blends. This presentation will provide an update of SMOPS products. The time series of each of these soil moisture data products are analyzed against other data products, such as precipitation and evapotranspiration from other independent data sources such as the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Temporal characteristics of these water cycle components are explored against some historical events, such as the 2010 Russian, 2010 China and 2012 United States droughts, 2015 South Carolina floods, etc. Finally whether a merged global soil moisture data product can be used as a climate data record is evaluated based on the above analyses.

Accuracy of near infrared spectroscopy for prediction of chemical composition, salt content and free amino acids in dry-cured ham.

PubMed

Prevolnik, Maja; Škrlep, Martin; Janeš, Lucija; Velikonja-Bolta, Spela; Škorjanc, Dejan; Čandek-Potokar, Marjeta

2011-06-01

The capability of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was examined for the purposes of quality control of the traditional Slovenian dry-cured ham "Kraški pršut." Predictive models were developed for moisture, salt, protein, non-protein nitrogen, intramuscular fat and free amino acids in biceps femoris muscle (n = 135). The models' quality was assessed using statistical parameters: coefficient of determination (R(2)) and standard error (se) of cross-validation (CV) and external validation (EV). Residual predictive deviation (RPD) was also assessed. Best results were obtained for salt content and salt percentage in moisture/dry matter (R(CV)(2)>0.90, RPD>3.0), it was satisfactory for moisture, non-protein nitrogen, intramuscular fat and total free amino acids (R(CV)(2) = 0.75-0.90, RPD = 2.0-3.0), while not so for protein content and proteolysis index (R(CV)(2) = 0.65-0.75, RPD<2.0). Calibrations for individual free amino acids yielded R(CV)(2) from 0.40 to 0.90 and RPD from 1.3 to 2.9. Additional external validation of models on independent samples yielded comparable results. Based on the results, NIR spectroscopy can replace chemical methods in quality control of dry-cured ham. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting moisture-induced damage to asphaltic concrete : field evaluation : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-01-01

Virginia was one of seven agencies that participated in the evaluation of a stripping test developed under National Cooperative Highway Research Program Project 4-8(3). The test was used to predict stripping of a field test section and the test resul...

Light-frame wall and floor systems : analysis and performance

Treesearch

G. Sherwood; R. C. Moody

1989-01-01

This report describes methods of predicting the performance of light-frame wood structures with emphasis on floor and wall systems. Methods of predicting structural performance, fire safety, and environmental concerns including thermal, moisture, and acoustic performance are addressed in the three major sections.

Sci-Thur AM: YIS – 05: Prediction of lung tumor motion using a generalized neural network optimized from the average prediction outcome of a group of patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teo, Troy; Alayoubi, Nadia; Bruce, Neil

Purpose: In image-guided adaptive radiotherapy systems, prediction of tumor motion is required to compensate for system latencies. However, due to the non-stationary nature of respiration, it is a challenge to predict the associated tumor motions. In this work, a systematic design of the neural network (NN) using a mixture of online data acquired during the initial period of the tumor trajectory, coupled with a generalized model optimized using a group of patient data (obtained offline) is presented. Methods: The average error surface obtained from seven patients was used to determine the input data size and number of hidden neurons formore » the generalized NN. To reduce training time, instead of using random weights to initialize learning (method 1), weights inherited from previous training batches (method 2) were used to predict tumor position for each sliding window. Results: The generalized network was established with 35 input data (∼4.66s) and 20 hidden nodes. For a prediction horizon of 650 ms, mean absolute errors of 0.73 mm and 0.59 mm were obtained for method 1 and 2 respectively. An average initial learning period of 8.82 s is obtained. Conclusions: A network with a relatively short initial learning time was achieved. Its accuracy is comparable to previous studies. This network could be used as a plug-and play predictor in which (a) tumor positions can be predicted as soon as treatment begins and (b) the need for pretreatment data and optimization for individual patients can be avoided.« less

The Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS): Overview and Capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AghaKouchak, A.; Hao, Z.; Farahmand, A.; Nakhjiri, N.

2013-12-01

Development of reliable monitoring and prediction indices and tools are fundamental to drought preparedness and management. Motivated by the Global Drought Information Systems (GDIS) activities, this paper presents the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS) which provides near real-time drought information using both remote sensing observations and model simulations. The monthly data from the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-Land), North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), and remotely sensed precipitation data are used as input to GIDMaPS. Numerous indices have been developed for drought monitoring based on various indicator variables (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, water storage). Defining droughts based on a single variable (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture or runoff) may not be sufficient for reliable risk assessment and decision making. GIDMaPS provides drought information based on multiple indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) which combines SPI and SSI probabilistically. In other words, MSDI incorporates the meteorological and agricultural drought conditions for overall characterization of droughts. The seasonal prediction component of GIDMaPS is based on a persistence model which requires historical data and near-past observations. The seasonal drought prediction component is based on two input data sets (MERRA and NLDAS) and three drought indicators (SPI, SSI and MSDI). The drought prediction model provides the empirical probability of drought for different severity levels. In this presentation, both monitoring and prediction components of GIDMaPS will be discussed, and the results from several major droughts including the 2013 Namibia, 2012-2013 United States, 2011-2012 Horn of Africa, and 2010 Amazon Droughts will be presented. The results indicate that GIDMaPS advances our drought monitoring and prediction capabilities through integration of multiple data and indicators.

A Small and Slim Coaxial Probe for Single Rice Grain Moisture Sensing

PubMed Central

You, Kok Yeow; Mun, Hou Kit; You, Li Ling; Salleh, Jamaliah; Abbas, Zulkifly

2013-01-01

A moisture detection of single rice grains using a slim and small open-ended coaxial probe is presented. The coaxial probe is suitable for the nondestructive measurement of moisture values in the rice grains ranging from from 9.5% to 26%. Empirical polynomial models are developed to predict the gravimetric moisture content of rice based on measured reflection coefficients using a vector network analyzer. The relationship between the reflection coefficient and relative permittivity were also created using a regression method and expressed in a polynomial model, whose model coefficients were obtained by fitting the data from Finite Element-based simulation. Besides, the designed single rice grain sample holder and experimental set-up were shown. The measurement of single rice grains in this study is more precise compared to the measurement in conventional bulk rice grains, as the random air gap present in the bulk rice grains is excluded. PMID:23493127

Microwave remote sensing of soil water content

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cihlar, J.; Ulaby, F. T.

1975-01-01

Microwave remote sensing of soils to determine water content was considered. A layered water balance model was developed for determining soil water content in the upper zone (top 30 cm), while soil moisture at greater depths and near the surface during the diurnal cycle was studied using experimental measurements. Soil temperature was investigated by means of a simulation model. Based on both models, moisture and temperature profiles of a hypothetical soil were generated and used to compute microwave soil parameters for a clear summer day. The results suggest that, (1) soil moisture in the upper zone can be predicted on a daily basis for 1 cm depth increments, (2) soil temperature presents no problem if surface temperature can be measured with infrared radiometers, and (3) the microwave response of a bare soil is determined primarily by the moisture at and near the surface. An algorithm is proposed for monitoring large areas which combines the water balance and microwave methods.