A New NOAA Research Initiative on the Seasonal Prediction of U.S. Coastal High Water Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariotti, A.; Archambault, H. M.; Barrie, D.; Huang, J.

2017-12-01

A crucial part of NOAA's service mission is to make U.S. communities more resilient to rises in coastal sea level, which on a seasonal timescale may increase the threat for nuisance ("sunny day") flooding, as well as enhance the severity of storm surge events. Over a season, variability in climate or ocean dynamics, in combination with longer-term trends, can influence coastal sea level in a way that is potentially predictable. To leverage these emerging scientific findings, the Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program, in partnership with the National Marine Fisheries Service, has funded a set of three-year projects starting in FY 2017 to help develop NOAA's capability to produce skillful seasonal (i.e, 2-9 month) predictions of coastal high water levels as well as changing living marine resources. This presentation will describe the goals, scope and intended activities of this research initiative and its coordination via a new MAPP Ocean Prediction Task Force.

Alternative evaluation metrics for risk adjustment methods.

PubMed

Park, Sungchul; Basu, Anirban

2018-06-01

Risk adjustment is instituted to counter risk selection by accurately equating payments with expected expenditures. Traditional risk-adjustment methods are designed to estimate accurate payments at the group level. However, this generates residual risks at the individual level, especially for high-expenditure individuals, thereby inducing health plans to avoid those with high residual risks. To identify an optimal risk-adjustment method, we perform a comprehensive comparison of prediction accuracies at the group level, at the tail distributions, and at the individual level across 19 estimators: 9 parametric regression, 7 machine learning, and 3 distributional estimators. Using the 2013-2014 MarketScan database, we find that no one estimator performs best in all prediction accuracies. Generally, machine learning and distribution-based estimators achieve higher group-level prediction accuracy than parametric regression estimators. However, parametric regression estimators show higher tail distribution prediction accuracy and individual-level prediction accuracy, especially at the tails of the distribution. This suggests that there is a trade-off in selecting an appropriate risk-adjustment method between estimating accurate payments at the group level and lower residual risks at the individual level. Our results indicate that an optimal method cannot be determined solely on the basis of statistical metrics but rather needs to account for simulating plans' risk selective behaviors. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Who Will Succeed and Who Will Struggle? Predicting Early College Success with Indiana's Student Information System. REL 2015-078

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stephan, Jennifer L.; Davis, Elisabeth; Lindsay, Jim; Miller, Shazia

2015-01-01

This study examined whether data on Indiana high school students, their high schools, and the Indiana public colleges and universities in which they enroll predict their academic success during the first two years in college. The researchers obtained student-level, school-level, and university-related data from Indiana's state longitudinal data…

[Serum PTH levels as a predictive factor of hypocalcaemia after total thyroidectomy].

PubMed

Díez Alonso, Manuel; Sánchez López, José Daniel; Sánchez-Seco Peña, María Isabel; Ratia Jiménez, Tomás; Arribas Gómez, Ignacio; Rodríguez Pascual, Angel; Martín-Duce, Antonio; Guadalix Hidalgo, Gregorio; Hernández Domínguez, Sara; Granell Vicent, Javier

2009-02-01

Postoperative parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels as a predictor of hypocalcaemia in patients subjected to total thyroidectomy is analyzed. Prospective study involving 67 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy due to a benign disease. Serum PTH and ionised calcium were measured 20 h after surgery. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of PTH and ionised calcium levels were calculated to predict clinical and analytical hypocalcaemia. A total of 42 (62.7%) patients developed hypocalcaemia (ionised calcium<0.95 mmol/l), but only 20 (29.9%) presented with symptoms. PTH concentration the day after surgery was significantly lower in the group that developed symptomatic hypocalcaemia (5.57+/-6.4 pg/ml) than in the asymptomatic (21.5+/-15.3 pg/ml) or normocalcaemic (26.8+/-24.9 pg/ml) groups (p=0.001). Taking the value of 13 pg/ml as a cut-off point of PTH levels, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 54%, 72%, 76% and 48%, respectively. On the other hand, sensitivity for predicting symptomatic hypocalcaemia was 95% and specificity was 76%. The test showed a high incidence of false positives (11/30, 36%). Negative predictive value was 97% and positive predictive value was 65%. In multivariate analysis, PTH and ionised calcium were the only perioperative factors that showed an independent predictive value as risk indicators of symptomatic hypocalcaemia. Normal PTH levels 20 h after surgery practically rule out the subsequent appearance of hypocalcaemia symptoms. On the other hand, low PTH levels are not necessarily associated to symptomatic hypocalcaemia due to the high number of false positives.

An empirical approach to improving tidal predictions using recent real-time tide gauge data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibbert, Angela; Royston, Samantha; Horsburgh, Kevin J.; Leach, Harry

2014-05-01

Classical harmonic methods of tidal prediction are often problematic in estuarine environments due to the distortion of tidal fluctuations in shallow water, which results in a disparity between predicted and observed sea levels. This is of particular concern in the Bristol Channel, where the error associated with tidal predictions is potentially greater due to an unusually large tidal range of around 12m. As such predictions are fundamental to the short-term forecasting of High Water (HW) extremes, it is vital that alternative solutions are found. In a pilot study, using a year-long observational sea level record from the Port of Avonmouth in the Bristol Channel, the UK National Tidal and Sea Level Facility (NTSLF) tested the potential for reducing tidal prediction errors, using three alternatives to the Harmonic Method of tidal prediction. The three methods evaluated were (1) the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models, (2) the Species Concordance technique and (3) a simple empirical procedure for correcting Harmonic Method High Water predictions based upon a few recent observations (referred to as the Empirical Correction Method). This latter method was then successfully applied to sea level records from an additional 42 of the 45 tide gauges that comprise the UK Tide Gauge Network. Consequently, it is to be incorporated into the operational systems of the UK Coastal Monitoring and Forecasting Partnership in order to improve short-term sea level predictions for the UK and in particular, the accurate estimation of HW extremes.

Prediction of monthly regional groundwater levels through hybrid soft-computing techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Fi-John; Chang, Li-Chiu; Huang, Chien-Wei; Kao, I.-Feng

2016-10-01

Groundwater systems are intrinsically heterogeneous with dynamic temporal-spatial patterns, which cause great difficulty in quantifying their complex processes, while reliable predictions of regional groundwater levels are commonly needed for managing water resources to ensure proper service of water demands within a region. In this study, we proposed a novel and flexible soft-computing technique that could effectively extract the complex high-dimensional input-output patterns of basin-wide groundwater-aquifer systems in an adaptive manner. The soft-computing models combined the Self Organized Map (SOM) and the Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) network for predicting monthly regional groundwater levels based on hydrologic forcing data. The SOM could effectively classify the temporal-spatial patterns of regional groundwater levels, the NARX could accurately predict the mean of regional groundwater levels for adjusting the selected SOM, the Kriging was used to interpolate the predictions of the adjusted SOM into finer grids of locations, and consequently the prediction of a monthly regional groundwater level map could be obtained. The Zhuoshui River basin in Taiwan was the study case, and its monthly data sets collected from 203 groundwater stations, 32 rainfall stations and 6 flow stations during 2000 and 2013 were used for modelling purpose. The results demonstrated that the hybrid SOM-NARX model could reliably and suitably predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels with high correlations (R2 > 0.9 in both training and testing cases). The proposed methodology presents a milestone in modelling regional environmental issues and offers an insightful and promising way to predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels, which is beneficial to authorities for sustainable water resources management.

Computational Assessment of Aft-Body Closure for the HSR Reference H Configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Londenberg, W. Kelly

1999-01-01

A study has been conducted to determine how well the USM3D unstructured Euler solver can be utilized to predict the flow over the High Speed Research (HSR) Reference H configuration with an ultimate goal of prediction of Sting interference so after body closure effects may be evaluated. This study has shown that the code can be used to predict the interference effects of a lower mounted blade sting with a high degree of confidence. It has been shown that wing and fuselage pressures, both levels and trends, can be predicted well. Force and moment levels are not predicted well but experimental trends are predicted. Based upon this, predicted force and moment increments are assumed to be predicted accurately. Deflection of the horizontal tail was found to cause a non-linear increment from the non-deflected sting interference effects.

The child as proband for future parental cardiometabolic disease: the 26-year prospective Princeton Lipid Research Clinics Follow-up Study.

PubMed

Morrison, John A; Glueck, Charles J; Wang, Ping

2012-04-01

To evaluate children's cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors as predictors of parents' subsequent CVD, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and high blood pressure (HBP). We conducted a 26-year prospective follow-up of 852 5- to 19-year-old black and white schoolchildren (mean age, 12 years; Lipid Research Clinics, 1973-8), and parents (mean age, 40 years) from 519 families in Princeton Schools, Cincinnati, Ohio. Schoolchildren were reassessed in the Princeton Follow-up study 1999-2003 at mean age 39 years; CVD, T2DM, and HBP history of their 1038 parents were reassessed by mean age 66 years. We assessed relationships of childhood risk factors with parental CVD, T2DM, and HBP. Child-probands identified with triglyceride (TG) levels, blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, body mass index (BMI), and glucose level greater than and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels less than established cutoff points. Pediatric HBP (P=.006) and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (P=.018) were predictive of parental CVD at age ≤50 years. Pediatric HBP (P=.02) and high TG (P=.03) were predictive of parental CVD at age ≤60 years. Pediatric high TG (P=.009) and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (P=.04) were predictive of parental CVD by age 66 years. Pediatric high BMI (P=.0006) were predictive of parental T2DM. Pediatric high BMI (P=.003) and black race (P=.004) were predictive of parental HBP. Pediatric risk factors identify families with parents at increased risk for CVD, T2DM, and HBP, emphasizing the usefulness of the child as proband. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Focal Low and Global High Permeability Predict the Possibility, Risk, and Location of Hemorrhagic Transformation following Intra-Arterial Thrombolysis Therapy in Acute Stroke.

PubMed

Li, Y; Xia, Y; Chen, H; Liu, N; Jackson, A; Wintermark, M; Zhang, Y; Hu, J; Wu, B; Zhang, W; Tu, J; Su, Z; Zhu, G

2017-09-01

The contrast volume transfer coefficient ( K trans ), which reflects blood-brain barrier permeability, is influenced by circulation and measurement conditions. We hypothesized that focal low BBB permeability values can predict the spatial distribution of hemorrhagic transformation and global high BBB permeability values can predict the likelihood of hemorrhagic transformation. We retrospectively enrolled 106 patients with hemispheric stroke who received intra-arterial thrombolytic treatment. K trans maps were obtained with first-pass perfusion CT data. The K trans values at the region level, obtained with the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score system, were compared to determine the differences between the hemorrhagic transformation and nonhemorrhagic transformation regions. The K trans values of the whole ischemic region based on baseline perfusion CT were obtained as a variable to hemorrhagic transformation possibility at the global level. Forty-eight (45.3%) patients had hemorrhagic transformation, and 21 (19.8%) had symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage. At the region level, there were 82 ROIs with hemorrhagic transformation and parenchymal hemorrhage with a mean K trans , 0.5 ± 0.5/min, which was significantly lower than that in the nonhemorrhagic transformation regions ( P < .01). The mean K trans value of 615 nonhemorrhagic transformation ROIs was 0.7 ± 0.6/min. At the global level, there was a significant difference ( P = .01) between the mean K trans values of patients with symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (1.3 ± 0.9) and those without symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (0.8 ± 0.4). Only a high K trans value at the global level could predict the occurrence of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage ( P < .01; OR = 5.04; 95% CI, 2.01-12.65). Global high K trans values can predict the likelihood of hemorrhagic transformation or symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage at the patient level, whereas focal low K trans values can predict the spatial distributions of hemorrhagic transformation at the region level. © 2017 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

Enhancing the prediction of self-handicapping.

PubMed

Harris, R N; Snyder, C R; Higgins, R L; Schrag, J L

1986-12-01

Levels of test anxiety, Type A and Type B coronary-prone behavior, fear of failure, and covert self-esteem were studied as predictors of self-handicapping performance attributions for college women who were placed in either a high- (N = 49) or low- (N = 49) evaluative test or task situation. We hypothesized that test anxiety. Type A or Type B level, and their interaction would account for reliable variance in the prediction of self-handicapping. However, we also theorized that underlying high fear of failure and low covert self-esteem would explain the self-handicapping claims of test-anxious and Type A subjects. The results indicated that only high levels of test anxiety and high levels of covert self-esteem were related to women's self-handicapping attributions.

Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying; Moges, Semu; Block, Paul

2018-01-01

Prediction of seasonal precipitation can provide actionable information to guide management of various sectoral activities. For instance, it is often translated into hydrological forecasts for better water resources management. However, many studies assume homogeneity in precipitation across an entire study region, which may prove ineffective for operational and local-level decisions, particularly for locations with high spatial variability. This study proposes advancing local-level seasonal precipitation predictions by first conditioning on regional-level predictions, as defined through objective cluster analysis, for western Ethiopia. To our knowledge, this is the first study predicting seasonal precipitation at high resolution in this region, where lives and livelihoods are vulnerable to precipitation variability given the high reliance on rain-fed agriculture and limited water resources infrastructure. The combination of objective cluster analysis, spatially high-resolution prediction of seasonal precipitation, and a modeling structure spanning statistical and dynamical approaches makes clear advances in prediction skill and resolution, as compared with previous studies. The statistical model improves versus the non-clustered case or dynamical models for a number of specific clusters in northwestern Ethiopia, with clusters having regional average correlation and ranked probability skill score (RPSS) values of up to 0.5 and 33 %, respectively. The general skill (after bias correction) of the two best-performing dynamical models over the entire study region is superior to that of the statistical models, although the dynamical models issue predictions at a lower resolution and the raw predictions require bias correction to guarantee comparable skills.

Patterns of Senescence in Human Cardiovascular Fitness: VO2max in Subsistence and Industrialized Populations

PubMed Central

Pisor, Anne C.; Gurven, Michael; Blackwell, Aaron D.; Kaplan, Hillard; Yetish, Gandhi

2014-01-01

Objectives This study explores whether cardiovascular fitness levels and senescent decline are similar in the Tsimane of Bolivia and Canadians, as well as other subsistence and industrialized populations. Among Tsimane, we examine whether morbidity predicts lower levels and faster decline of cardiovascular fitness, or whether their lifestyle (e.g., high physical activity) promotes high levels and slow decline. Alternatively, high activity levels and morbidity might counterbalance such that Tsimane fitness levels and decline are similar to those in industrialized populations. Methods Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) was estimated using a step test heart rate method for 701 participants. We compared these estimates to the Canadian Health Measures Survey and previous studies in industrialized and subsistence populations. We evaluated whether health indicators and proxies for market integration were associated with VO2max levels and rate of decline for the Tsimane. Results The Tsimane have significantly higher levels of VO2max and slower rates of decline than Canadians; initial evidence suggests differences in VO2max levels between other subsistence and industrialized populations. Low hemoglobin predicts low VO2max for Tsimane women while helminth infection predicts high VO2max for Tsimane men, though results might be specific to the VO2max scaling parameter used. No variables tested interact with age to moderate decline. Conclusions The Tsimane demonstrate higher levels of cardiovascular fitness than industrialized populations, but levels similar to other subsistence populations. The high VO2max of Tsimane is consistent with their high physical activity and few indicators of cardiovascular disease, measured in previous studies. PMID:24022886

Validating a spatially distributed hydrological model with soil morphology data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doppler, T.; Honti, M.; Zihlmann, U.; Weisskopf, P.; Stamm, C.

2013-10-01

Spatially distributed hydrological models are popular tools in hydrology and they are claimed to be useful to support management decisions. Despite the high spatial resolution of the computed variables, calibration and validation is often carried out only on discharge time-series at specific locations due to the lack of spatially distributed reference data. Because of this restriction, the predictive power of these models, with regard to predicted spatial patterns, can usually not be judged. An example of spatial predictions in hydrology is the prediction of saturated areas in agricultural catchments. These areas can be important source areas for the transport of agrochemicals to the stream. We set up a spatially distributed model to predict saturated areas in a 1.2 km2 catchment in Switzerland with moderate topography. Around 40% of the catchment area are artificially drained. We measured weather data, discharge and groundwater levels in 11 piezometers for 1.5 yr. For broadening the spatially distributed data sets that can be used for model calibration and validation, we translated soil morphological data available from soil maps into an estimate of the duration of soil saturation in the soil horizons. We used redox-morphology signs for these estimates. This resulted in a data set with high spatial coverage on which the model predictions were validated. In general, these saturation estimates corresponded well to the measured groundwater levels. We worked with a model that would be applicable for management decisions because of its fast calculation speed and rather low data requirements. We simultaneously calibrated the model to the groundwater levels in the piezometers and discharge. The model was able to reproduce the general hydrological behavior of the catchment in terms of discharge and absolute groundwater levels. However, the accuracy of the groundwater level predictions was not high enough to be used for the prediction of saturated areas. The groundwater level dynamics were not adequately reproduced and the predicted spatial patterns of soil saturation did not correspond to the patterns estimated from the soil map. Our results indicate that an accurate prediction of the groundwater level dynamics of the shallow groundwater in our catchment that is subject to artificial drainage would require a more complex model. Especially high spatial resolution and very detailed process representations at the boundary between the unsaturated and the saturated zone are expected to be crucial. The data needed for such a detailed model are not generally available. The high computational demand and the complex model setup would require more resources than the direct identification of saturated areas in the field. This severely hampers the practical use of such models despite their usefulness for scientific purposes.

Serum Creatinine Versus Plasma Methotrexate Levels to Predict Toxicities in Children Receiving High-dose Methotrexate.

PubMed

Tiwari, Priya; Thomas, M K; Pathania, Subha; Dhawan, Deepa; Gupta, Y K; Vishnubhatla, Sreenivas; Bakhshi, Sameer

2015-01-01

Facilities for measuring methotrexate (MTX) levels are not available everywhere, potentially limiting administration of high-dose methotrexate (HDMTX). We hypothesized that serum creatinine alteration after HDMTX administration predicts MTX clearance. Overall, 122 cycles in 50 patients of non-Hodgkin lymphoma or acute lymphoblastic leukemia aged ≤18 years receiving HDMTX were enrolled prospectively. Plasma MTX levels were measured at 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 hours; serum creatinine was measured at baseline, 24, 48, and 72 hours. Correlation of plasma MTX levels with creatinine levels and changes in creatinine from baseline (Δ creatinine) were evaluated. Plasma MTX levels at 72 hours showed positive correlation with serum creatinine at 48 hours (P = .011) and 72 hours (P = .013) as also Δ creatinine at 48 hours (P = .042) and 72 hours (P = .045). However, cut-off value of either creatinine or Δ creatinine could not be established to reliably predict delayed MTX clearance. Greater than 50% Δ creatinine at 48 and 72 hours significantly predicted grade 3/4 leucopenia (P = .036 and P = .001, respectively) and thrombocytopenia (P = .012 and P = .009, respectively) but not mucositis (P = .827 and P = .910, respectively). Delayed MTX elimination did not predict any grade 3/4 toxicity. In spite of demonstration of significant correlation between serum creatinine and Δ creatinine with plasma MTX levels at 72 hours, cut-off value of either variable to predict MTX delay could not be established. Thus, either of these cannot be used as a surrogate for plasma MTX estimation. Interestingly, Δ creatinine effectively predicted hematological toxicities, which were not predicted by delayed MTX clearance.

An analysis of high-impact, low-predictive skill severe weather events in the northeast U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Matthew T.

An objective evaluation of Storm Prediction Center slight risk convective outlooks, as well as a method to identify high-impact severe weather events with poor-predictive skill are presented in this study. The objectives are to assess severe weather forecast skill over the northeast U.S. relative to the continental U.S., build a climatology of high-impact, low-predictive skill events between 1980--2013, and investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic differences between severe weather events with low-predictive skill and high-predictive skill over the northeast U.S. Severe storm reports of hail, wind, and tornadoes are used to calculate skill scores including probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR) and threat scores (TS) for each convective outlook. Low predictive skill events are binned into low POD (type 1) and high FAR (type 2) categories to assess temporal variability of low-predictive skill events. Type 1 events were found to occur in every year of the dataset with an average of 6 events per year. Type 2 events occur less frequently and are more common in the earlier half of the study period. An event-centered composite analysis is performed on the low-predictive skill database using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis 0.5° gridded dataset to analyze the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions prior to high-impact severe weather events with varying predictive skill. Deep-layer vertical shear between 1000--500 hPa is found to be a significant discriminator in slight risk forecast skill where high-impact events with less than 31-kt shear have lower threat scores than high-impact events with higher shear values. Case study analysis of type 1 events suggests the environment over which severe weather occurs is characterized by high downdraft convective available potential energy, steep low-level lapse rates, and high lifting condensation level heights that contribute to an elevated risk of severe wind.

Retrospectively assessed psychosocial working conditions as predictors of prospectively assessed sickness absence and disability pension among older workers.

PubMed

Sundstrup, Emil; Hansen, Åse Marie; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Poulsen, Otto Melchior; Clausen, Thomas; Rugulies, Reiner; Møller, Anne; Andersen, Lars L

2018-01-17

The aim was to explore the association between retrospectively assessed psychosocial working conditions during working life and prospectively assessed risk of sickness absence and disability pension among older workers. The prospective risk of register-based long-term sickness absence (LTSA) and disability pension was estimated from exposure to 12 different psychosocial work characteristics during working life among 5076 older workers from the CAMB cohort (Copenhagen Aging and Midlife Biobank). Analyses were censored for competing events and adjusted for age, gender, physical work environment, lifestyle, education, and prior LTSA. LTSA was predicted by high levels of cognitive demands (HR 1.31 (95% CI 1.10-1.56)), high levels of emotional demands (HR 1.26 (95% CI 1.07-1.48)), low levels of influence at work (HR 1.30 (95% CI 1.03-1.64)), and high levels of role conflicts (HR 1.34 (95% CI 1.09-1.65)). Disability pension was predicted by low levels of influence at work (HR 2.73 (95% CI 1.49-5.00)) and low levels of recognition from management (HR 2.04 (95% CI 1.14-3.67)). This exploratory study found that retrospectively assessed high cognitive demands, high and medium emotional demands, low influence at work, low recognition from management, medium role clarity, and high role conflicts predicted LTSA and/or disability pension.

Predict value of adiponectin for coronary atherosclerosis plaques according to computed tomography angiography in an asymptomatic population.

PubMed

Gan, Lu; Yang, Li; Yan, Guangtao

2018-05-25

The association between serum adiponectin levels and coronary atherosclerosis plaque characteristics in asymptomatic populations is unclear. To examine the predictive value of serum adiponectin levels for coronary high risk plaques as detected by computed tomography angiography (CTA). This was a cross-sectional study. All patients were divided into high risk plaque group and non high risk plaque group. The FRS was calculated for each patient. CTA was performed for each patient. Adiponectin levels were measured by flow fluorescence immunmicrobead assay (FFIA). Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves and multivariate analysis was used to determine the predictive value of adiponectin for high risk plaques. The high risk plaque group showed lower adiponectin levels than non high risk plaque group (median, 7.27 vs. 8.51 μg/ml, P = 0.003). The multivariate analysis showed that age (OR = 2.62, 95%CI: 1.51-4.56, P = 0.001), hyperlipidemia (OR = 1.89, 95%CI: 1.07-3.36, P = 0.029), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) (OR = 0.46, 95%CI: 0.24-0.87, P = 0.02), the ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoproteincholesterol (TC/HDL-C) (OR = 0.69, 95%CI: 0.50-0.94, P = 0.02), apolipoprotein B (apoB) (OR = 3.08, 95%CI: 1.50-6.32, P = 0.002), and adiponectin (OR = 0.37, 95%CI: 0.19-0.74, P = 0.005) were independently associated with the presence of high risk plaques. AUC of the multivariate model for high-risk plaques was 0.728 (95%CI: 0.627-0.783). Sensitivity was 74.9%, specificity was 60.2%, the positive predictive value was 65.3%, and the negative predictive value was 70.6%. Decreased adiponectin levels were associated with the presence of high-risk plaques in asymptomatic populations at low to intermediate FRS. Adiponectin can play an important role in plaque screening before coronary CTA. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Role of Agonistic Striving in the Association Between Cortisol and High Blood Pressure.

PubMed

Ewart, Craig K; Elder, Gavin J; Jorgensen, Randall S; Fitzgerald, Sheila T

2017-05-01

A social action theory of chronic stress proposes that agonistic striving (seeking to influence or control others) impairs cardiovascular health by magnifying the impact of high adversity-induced cortisol levels on blood pressure. We tested three predictions of social action theory: (1) the social action theory taxonomy of regulatory strivings characterizes young adults from high-adversity neighborhoods; (2) high cortisol levels predict high blood pressure more reliably in the subgroup with the agonistic striving profile than in subgroups with other profiles; (3) the association of higher cortisol and higher blood pressure with agonistic striving is not explained by negative affect (depressive symptoms/dysphoria, anger, hostility). Participants were young adults (N = 198, mean [SD] age = 32 [3.4] years); 71% female; 65% black) from disadvantaged urban neighborhoods. Motive profiles (including agonistic strivings) were assessed using the Social Competence Interview. Cortisol levels were derived from saliva samples; blood pressure level was obtained during two days of ambulatory monitoring. Psychological measures of negative affect were assessed using questionnaires. The predicted taxonomy of regulatory strivings was replicated in this sample; the interaction between cortisol and motive profile was significant (F(2, 91) = 6.72, p = .002); analyses of simple effects disclosed that higher cortisol levels predicted higher ambulatory blood pressure only in individuals who exhibited agonistic striving. Depressive symptoms/dysphoria, trait anger, and hostility were not correlated with agonistic striving, cortisol, or blood pressure. Agonistic striving may represent a distinctive (and novel) social-cognitive mechanism of toxic stress and cardiovascular risk.

Analysis of Cyberbullying Sensitivity Levels of High School Students and Their Perceived Social Support Levels

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akturk, Ahmet Oguz

2015-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to determine the cyberbullying sensitivity levels of high school students and their perceived social supports levels, and analyze the variables that predict cyberbullying sensitivity. In addition, whether cyberbullying sensitivity levels and social support levels differed according to gender was also…

Volunteering predicts health among those who value others: two national studies.

PubMed

Poulin, Michael J

2014-02-01

The purpose of these studies was to examine the role of positive views of other people in predicting stress-buffering effects of volunteering on mortality and psychological distress. In Study 1, stressful life events, volunteering, and hostile cynicism assessed in a baseline Detroit-area survey (N = 846) predicted survival over a 5-year period, adjusting for relevant covariates. In Study 2, stressful life events, volunteering, and world benevolence beliefs assessed in a baseline national survey (N = 1,157) predicted psychological distress over a 1-year period, adjusting for distress at baseline. In Study 1, a Cox proportional hazard model indicated that for individuals low in cynicism, stress predicted mortality at low levels of volunteering but not at high levels of volunteering. This effect was not present among those high in cynicism. In Study 2, multiple regression analysis revealed that among individuals high in world benevolence beliefs, stress predicted elevated distress at low levels of volunteering but not at high levels of volunteering. This effect was absent for those lower in world benevolence beliefs. Consistent with prior research on helping behavior, these studies indicate that helping behavior can buffer the effects of stress on health. However, the results of these studies indicate that stress-buffering effects of volunteering are limited to individuals with positive views of other people. Not all individuals may benefit from volunteering, and health-promotion efforts seeking to draw on health benefits of helping behavior may need to target their approach accordingly. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

High rate of improvement in serum matrix metalloproteinase-3 levels at 4 weeks predicts remission at 52 weeks in RA patients treated with adalimumab.

PubMed

Hattori, Yosuke; Kojima, Toshihisa; Kaneko, Atsushi; Kida, Daihei; Hirano, Yuji; Fujibayashi, Takayoshi; Yabe, Yuichiro; Oguchi, Takeshi; Kanayama, Yasuhide; Miyake, Hiroyuki; Kato, Takefumi; Takagi, Hideki; Hayashi, Masatoshi; Ito, Takayasu; Shioura, Tomone; Takahashi, Nobunori; Ishikawa, Hisato; Funahashi, Koji; Ishiguro, Naoki

2018-01-01

This study aimed to determine whether serum matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP-3) levels can predict remission in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients treated with adalimumab (ADA). Subjects were 114 RA patients continuously treated with ADA for 52 weeks. Predictive factors at baseline and 4 weeks after initiation of ADA therapy for the achievement of remission (28-point count Disease Activity Score-CRP (DAS28-CRP) < 2.3) at 52 weeks were evaluated by multivariate logistic regression analysis. DAS28-CRP at 4 weeks (odds ratio (OR) 0.614, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.382-0.988) and improvement in serum MMP-3 levels at 4 weeks (OR 1.057, 95% CI 1.002-1.032) were independent predictors of remission at 52 weeks. The best cut-off level of DAS28-CRP and improvement in serum MMP-3 levels at 4 weeks for predicting remission at 52 weeks was 3.73 (sensitivity: 90%, specificity: 50%, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC): 62%) and 39.93% (sensitivity: 47%, specificity: 83%, AUC: 64%), respectively. Our findings suggest that a high rate of improvement in serum MMP-3 levels at 4 weeks after initiation of ADA therapy can predict remission at 52 weeks in RA patients.

On the predictability of high water level along the US East Coast: can the Florida Current measurement be an indicator for flooding caused by remote forcing?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezer, Tal; Atkinson, Larry P.

2017-06-01

Recent studies show that in addition to wind and air pressure effects, a significant portion of the variability of coastal sea level (CSL) along the US East Coast can be attributed to non-local factors such as variations in the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic circulation; these variations can cause unpredictable coastal flooding. The Florida Current transport (FCT) measurement across the Florida Straits monitors those variations, and thus, the study evaluated the potential of using the FCT as an indicator for anomalously high water level along the coast. Hourly water level data from 12 tide gauge stations over 12 years are used to construct records of maximum daily water levels (MDWL) that are compared with the daily FCT data. An empirical mode decomposition (EMD) approach is used to divide the data into high-frequency modes (periods T < ˜30 days), middle-frequency modes (˜30 days < T < ˜90 days), and low-frequency modes (˜90 days < T < ˜1 year). Two predictive measures are tested: FCT and FCT change (FCC). FCT is anti-correlated with MDWL in high-frequency modes but positively correlated with MDWL in low-frequency modes. FCC on the other hand is always anti-correlated with MDWL for all frequency bands, and the high water signal lags behind FCC for almost all stations, thus providing a potential predictive skill (i.e., whenever a weakening trend is detected in the FCT, anomalously high water is expected along the coast over the next few days). The MDWL-FCT correlation in the high-frequency modes is maximum in the lower Mid-Atlantic Bight, suggesting influence from the meandering Gulf Stream after it separates from the coast. However, the correlation in low-frequency modes is maximum in the South Atlantic Bight, suggesting impact from variations in the wind pattern over subtropical regions. The middle-frequency and low-frequency modes of the FCT seem to provide the best predictor for medium to large flooding events; it is estimated that ˜10-25% of the sea level variability in those modes can be attributed to variations in the FCT. An example from Hurricane Joaquin (September-October, 2015) demonstrates how an offshore storm that never made landfall can cause a weakening of the FCT and unexpected high water level and flooding along the US East Coast. A regression-prediction model based on the MDWL-FCT correlation shows some skill in estimating high water levels during past storms; the water level prediction is more accurate for slow-moving and offshore storms than it is for fast-moving storms. The study can help to improve water level prediction since current storm surge models rely on local wind but may ignore remote forcing.

Plasma D-dimer levels and ischaemic lesions in multiple vascular regions can predict occult cancer in patients with cryptogenic stroke.

PubMed

Gon, Y; Sakaguchi, M; Takasugi, J; Kawano, T; Kanki, H; Watanabe, A; Oyama, N; Terasaki, Y; Sasaki, T; Mochizuki, H

2017-03-01

Cancer patients with cryptogenic stroke often have high plasma D-dimer levels and lesions in multiple vascular regions. Hence, if patients with cryptogenic stroke display such characteristics, occult cancer could be predicted. This study aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics of cryptogenic stroke as the first manifestation of occult cancer and to determine whether plasma D-dimer levels and lesions in multiple vascular regions can predict occult cancer in patients with cryptogenic stroke. Between January 2006 and October 2015, data on 1225 patients with acute ischaemic stroke were extracted from the stroke database of Osaka University Hospital. Among them, 184 patients were classified as having cryptogenic stroke, and 120 patients without a diagnosis of cancer at stroke onset were identified. Clinical variables were analyzed between cryptogenic stroke patients with and without occult cancer. Among 120 cryptogenic stroke patients without a diagnosis of cancer, 12 patients had occult cancer. The body mass index, hemoglobin levels and albumin levels were lower; plasma D-dimer and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels were higher; and lesions in multiple vascular regions were more common in patients with than in those without occult cancer. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that plasma D-dimer levels (odds ratio, 3.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.68-8.33; P = 0.002) and lesions in multiple vascular regions (odds ratio, 7.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.70-39.45; P = 0.01) independently predicted occult cancer. High plasma D-dimer levels and lesions in multiple vascular regions can be used to predict occult cancer in patients with cryptogenic stroke. © 2016 EAN.

On the effect of acoustic coupling on random and harmonic plate vibrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frendi, A.; Robinson, J. H.

1993-01-01

The effect of acoustic coupling on random and harmonic plate vibrations is studied using two numerical models. In the coupled model, the plate response is obtained by integration of the nonlinear plate equation coupled with the nonlinear Euler equations for the surrounding acoustic fluid. In the uncoupled model, the nonlinear plate equation with an equivalent linear viscous damping term is integrated to obtain the response of the plate subject to the same excitation field. For a low-level, narrow-band excitation, the two models predict the same plate response spectra. As the excitation level is increased, the response power spectrum predicted by the uncoupled model becomes broader and more shifted towards the high frequencies than that obtained by the coupled model. In addition, the difference in response between the coupled and uncoupled models at high frequencies becomes larger. When a high intensity harmonic excitation is used, causing a nonlinear plate response, both models predict the same frequency content of the response. However, the level of the harmonics and subharmonics are higher for the uncoupled model. Comparisons to earlier experimental and numerical results show that acoustic coupling has a significant effect on the plate response at high excitation levels. Its absence in previous models may explain the discrepancy between predicted and measured responses.

Modeling of exposure to carbon monoxide in fires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cagliostro, D. E.

1980-01-01

A mathematical model is developed to predict carboxyhemoglobin concentrations in regions of the body for short exposures to carbon monoxide levels expected during escape from aircraft fires. The model includes the respiratory and circulatory dynamics of absorption and distribution of carbon monoxide and carboxyhemoglobin. Predictions of carboxyhemoglobin concentrations are compared to experimental values obtained for human exposures to constant high carbon monoxide levels. Predictions are within 20% of experimental values. For short exposure times, transient concentration effects are predicted. The effect of stress is studied and found to increase carboxyhemoglobin levels substantially compared to a rest state.

An exploration of the prevalence and predictors of work-related well-being among psychosocial oncology professionals: An application of the job demands-resources model.

PubMed

Turnell, Adrienne; Rasmussen, Victoria; Butow, Phyllis; Juraskova, Ilona; Kirsten, Laura; Wiener, Lori; Patenaude, Andrea; Hoekstra-Weebers, Josette; Grassi, Luigi

2016-02-01

Burnout is reportedly high among oncology healthcare workers. Psychosocial oncologists may be particularly vulnerable to burnout. However, their work engagement may also be high, counteracting stress in the workplace. This study aimed to document the prevalence of both burnout and work engagement, and the predictors of both, utilizing the job demands-resources (JD-R) model, within a sample of psychosocial oncologists. Psychosocial-oncologist (N = 417) clinicians, recruited through 10 international and national psychosocial-oncology societies, completed an online questionnaire. Measures included demographic and work characteristics, burnout (the MBI-HSS Emotional Exhaustion (EE) and Depersonalization (DP) subscales), the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale, and measures of job demands and resources. High EE and DP was reported by 20.2 and 6.6% of participants, respectively, while 95.3% reported average to high work engagement. Lower levels of job resources and higher levels of job demands predicted greater burnout, as predicted by the JD-R model, but the predicted interaction between these characteristics and burnout was not significant. Higher levels of job resources predicted higher levels of work engagement. Burnout was surprisingly low and work engagement high in this sample. Nonetheless, one in five psychosocial oncologists have high EE. Our results suggest that both the positive (resources) and negative (demands) aspects of this work environment have an on impact burnout and engagement, offering opportunities for intervention. Theories such as the JD-R model can be useful in guiding research in this area.

Neuroblastoma mRNAs predict outcome in children with stage 4 neuroblastoma: a European HR-NBL1/SIOPEN study.

PubMed

Viprey, Virginie F; Gregory, Walter M; Corrias, Maria V; Tchirkov, Andrei; Swerts, Katrien; Vicha, Ales; Dallorso, Sandro; Brock, Penelope; Luksch, Roberto; Valteau-Couanet, Dominique; Papadakis, Vassilios; Laureys, Genevieve; Pearson, Andrew D; Ladenstein, Ruth; Burchill, Susan A

2014-04-01

To evaluate the hypothesis that detection of neuroblastoma mRNAs by reverse transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RTqPCR) in peripheral blood (PB) and bone marrow aspirates (BM) from children with stage 4 neuroblastoma are clinically useful biomarkers of risk. RTqPCR for paired-like homeobox 2b (PHOX2B), tyrosine hydroxylase (TH), and doublecortin (DCX) mRNA in PB and BM of children enrolled onto the High-Risk Neuroblastoma Trial-1 of the European Society of Pediatric Oncology Neuroblastoma Group (HR-NBL1/SIOPEN) was performed at diagnosis and after induction therapy. High levels of TH, PHOX2B, or DCX mRNA in PB or BM at diagnosis strongly predicted for worse event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) in a cohort of 290 children. After induction therapy, high levels of these mRNAs predicted worse EFS and OS in BM but not in PB. Combinations of mRNAs in BM did not add to the predictive power of any single mRNA. However, in the original (n = 182) and validation (n = 137) PB cohorts, high TH (log10TH > 0.8) or high PHOX2B (log10PHOX2B > 0.28) identify 19% of children as ultrahigh risk, with 5-year EFS and OS rates of 0%; OS rate was 25% (95% CI, 16% to 36%) and EFS rate was 38% (95% CI, 28% to 49%) in the remaining children. The magnitude of reduction in mRNA level between diagnosis and postinduction therapy in BM or PB was not of additional predictive value. High levels of TH and PHOX2B mRNA in PB at diagnosis objectively identify children with ultrahigh-risk disease who may benefit from novel treatment approaches. The level of TH, PHOX2B, and DCX mRNA in BM and/or PB at diagnosis might contribute to an algorithm to improve stratification of children for treatment.

Childhood drinking and depressive symptom level predict harmful personality change

PubMed Central

Riley, Elizabeth N.; Smith, Gregory T.

2016-01-01

Personality traits in children predict numerous life outcomes. Although traits are generally stable, if there is personality change in youth, it could affect subsequent behavior in important ways. We found that the trait of urgency, the tendency to act impulsively when highly emotional, increases for some youth in early adolescence. This increase can be predicted from the behavior of young children: alcohol consumption and depressive symptom level in elementary school children (5th grade) predicted increases in urgency 18 months later. Urgency, in turn, predicted increases in a wide range of maladaptive behaviors another 30 months later, at the end of the first year of high school. The mechanism by which early drinking behavior and depressive symptoms predict personality is not yet clear and merits future research; notably, the findings are consistent with mechanisms proposed by personality change theory and urgency theory. PMID:28392979

Mean-level change and intraindividual variability in self-esteem and depression among high-risk children

PubMed Central

Kim, Jungmeen; Cicchetti, Dante

2012-01-01

This study investigated mean-level changes and intraindividual variability of self-esteem among maltreated (n=142) and nonmaltreated (n=109) school-aged children from low-income families. Longitudinal factor analysis revealed higher temporal stability of self-esteem among maltreated children compared to nonmaltreated children. Cross-domain latent growth curve models indicated that nonmaltreated children showed higher initial levels and greater increases in self-esteem than maltreated children, and that the initial levels of self-esteem were significantly associated with depressive symptoms among maltreated and nonmaltreated children. The average level (mean of repeated measurements) of self-esteem was predictive of depression at the final occasion for both maltreated and nonmaltreated children. For nonmaltreated children intraindividual variability of self-esteem had a direct contribution to prediction of depression. The findings enhance our understanding of developmental changes in self-esteem and the role of the average level and within-person variability of self-esteem in predicting depressive symptoms among high-risk children. PMID:22822280

Curriculum Track and Its Influences on Predicting High School Dropout Likelihood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mohd Kamalludeen, Rosemaliza

2012-01-01

Dropping out of school is a major concern as high school graduation credentials have been used as an important measurement tool to define post-secondary success. Numerous researchers presented a multitude of factors that predict dropouts at individual and school levels. Curriculum track choice, or high school course-taking sequence, defines…

A neighborhood statistics model for predicting stream pathogen indicator levels.

PubMed

Pandey, Pramod K; Pasternack, Gregory B; Majumder, Mahbubul; Soupir, Michelle L; Kaiser, Mark S

2015-03-01

Because elevated levels of water-borne Escherichia coli in streams are a leading cause of water quality impairments in the U.S., water-quality managers need tools for predicting aqueous E. coli levels. Presently, E. coli levels may be predicted using complex mechanistic models that have a high degree of unchecked uncertainty or simpler statistical models. To assess spatio-temporal patterns of instream E. coli levels, herein we measured E. coli, a pathogen indicator, at 16 sites (at four different times) within the Squaw Creek watershed, Iowa, and subsequently, the Markov Random Field model was exploited to develop a neighborhood statistics model for predicting instream E. coli levels. Two observed covariates, local water temperature (degrees Celsius) and mean cross-sectional depth (meters), were used as inputs to the model. Predictions of E. coli levels in the water column were compared with independent observational data collected from 16 in-stream locations. The results revealed that spatio-temporal averages of predicted and observed E. coli levels were extremely close. Approximately 66 % of individual predicted E. coli concentrations were within a factor of 2 of the observed values. In only one event, the difference between prediction and observation was beyond one order of magnitude. The mean of all predicted values at 16 locations was approximately 1 % higher than the mean of the observed values. The approach presented here will be useful while assessing instream contaminations such as pathogen/pathogen indicator levels at the watershed scale.

Research of Water Level Prediction for a Continuous Flood due to Typhoons Based on a Machine Learning Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakatsugawa, M.; Kobayashi, Y.; Okazaki, R.; Taniguchi, Y.

2017-12-01

This research aims to improve accuracy of water level prediction calculations for more effective river management. In August 2016, Hokkaido was visited by four typhoons, whose heavy rainfall caused severe flooding. In the Tokoro river basin of Eastern Hokkaido, the water level (WL) at the Kamikawazoe gauging station, which is at the lower reaches exceeded the design high-water level and the water rose to the highest level on record. To predict such flood conditions and mitigate disaster damage, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of prediction as well as to prolong the lead time (LT) required for disaster mitigation measures such as flood-fighting activities and evacuation actions by residents. There is the need to predict the river water level around the peak stage earlier and more accurately. Previous research dealing with WL prediction had proposed a method in which the WL at the lower reaches is estimated by the correlation with the WL at the upper reaches (hereinafter: "the water level correlation method"). Additionally, a runoff model-based method has been generally used in which the discharge is estimated by giving rainfall prediction data to a runoff model such as a storage function model and then the WL is estimated from that discharge by using a WL discharge rating curve (H-Q curve). In this research, an attempt was made to predict WL by applying the Random Forest (RF) method, which is a machine learning method that can estimate the contribution of explanatory variables. Furthermore, from the practical point of view, we investigated the prediction of WL based on a multiple correlation (MC) method involving factors using explanatory variables with high contribution in the RF method, and we examined the proper selection of explanatory variables and the extension of LT. The following results were found: 1) Based on the RF method tuned up by learning from previous floods, the WL for the abnormal flood case of August 2016 was properly predicted with a lead time of 6 h. 2) Based on the contribution of explanatory variables, factors were selected for the MC method. In this way, plausible prediction results were obtained.

Extreme value modeling for the analysis and prediction of time series of extreme tropospheric ozone levels: a case study.

PubMed

Escarela, Gabriel

2012-06-01

The occurrence of high concentrations of tropospheric ozone is considered as one of the most important issues of air management programs. The prediction of dangerous ozone levels for the public health and the environment, along with the assessment of air quality control programs aimed at reducing their severity, is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policy makers. The chemical mechanisms of tropospheric ozone formation are complex, and highly variable meteorological conditions contribute additionally to difficulties in accurate study and prediction of high levels of ozone. Statistical methods offer an effective approach to understand the problem and eventually improve the ability to predict maximum levels of ozone. In this paper an extreme value model is developed to study data sets that consist of periodically collected maxima of tropospheric ozone concentrations and meteorological variables. The methods are applied to daily tropospheric ozone maxima in Guadalajara City, Mexico, for the period January 1997 to December 2006. The model adjusts the daily rate of change in ozone for concurrent impacts of seasonality and present and past meteorological conditions, which include surface temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and ozone. The results indicate that trend, annual effects, and key meteorological variables along with some interactions explain the variation in daily ozone maxima. Prediction performance assessments yield reasonably good results.

Quantitative Protein Topography Analysis and High-Resolution Structure Prediction Using Hydroxyl Radical Labeling and Tandem-Ion Mass Spectrometry (MS)*

PubMed Central

Kaur, Parminder; Kiselar, Janna; Yang, Sichun; Chance, Mark R.

2015-01-01

Hydroxyl radical footprinting based MS for protein structure assessment has the goal of understanding ligand induced conformational changes and macromolecular interactions, for example, protein tertiary and quaternary structure, but the structural resolution provided by typical peptide-level quantification is limiting. In this work, we present experimental strategies using tandem-MS fragmentation to increase the spatial resolution of the technique to the single residue level to provide a high precision tool for molecular biophysics research. Overall, in this study we demonstrated an eightfold increase in structural resolution compared with peptide level assessments. In addition, to provide a quantitative analysis of residue based solvent accessibility and protein topography as a basis for high-resolution structure prediction; we illustrate strategies of data transformation using the relative reactivity of side chains as a normalization strategy and predict side-chain surface area from the footprinting data. We tested the methods by examination of Ca+2-calmodulin showing highly significant correlations between surface area and side-chain contact predictions for individual side chains and the crystal structure. Tandem ion based hydroxyl radical footprinting-MS provides quantitative high-resolution protein topology information in solution that can fill existing gaps in structure determination for large proteins and macromolecular complexes. PMID:25687570

Dam-Break Flooding and Structural Damage in a Residential Neighborhood: Performance of a coupled hydrodynamic-damage model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, B. F.; Gallegos, H. A.; Schubert, J. E.

2011-12-01

The Baldwin Hills dam-break flood and associated structural damage is investigated in this study. The flood caused high velocity flows exceeding 5 m/s which destroyed 41 wood-framed residential structures, 16 of which were completed washed out. Damage is predicted by coupling a calibrated hydrodynamic flood model based on the shallow-water equations to structural damage models. The hydrodynamic and damage models are two-way coupled so building failure is predicted upon exceedance of a hydraulic intensity parameter, which in turn triggers a localized reduction in flow resistance which affects flood intensity predictions. Several established damage models and damage correlations reported in the literature are tested to evaluate the predictive skill for two damage states defined by destruction (Level 2) and washout (Level 3). Results show that high-velocity structural damage can be predicted with a remarkable level of skill using established damage models, but only with two-way coupling of the hydrodynamic and damage models. In contrast, when structural failure predictions have no influence on flow predictions, there is a significant reduction in predictive skill. Force-based damage models compare well with a subset of the damage models which were devised for similar types of structures. Implications for emergency planning and preparedness as well as monetary damage estimation are discussed.

Predict the Medicare Functional Classification Level (K-level) using the Amputee Mobility Predictor in people with unilateral transfemoral and transtibial amputation: A pilot study.

PubMed

Dillon, Michael P; Major, Matthew J; Kaluf, Brian; Balasanov, Yuri; Fatone, Stefania

2018-04-01

While Amputee Mobility Predictor scores differ between Medicare Functional Classification Levels (K-level), this does not demonstrate that the Amputee Mobility Predictor can accurately predict K-level. To determine how accurately K-level could be predicted using the Amputee Mobility Predictor in combination with patient characteristics for persons with transtibial and transfemoral amputation. Prediction. A cumulative odds ordinal logistic regression was built to determine the effect that the Amputee Mobility Predictor, in combination with patient characteristics, had on the odds of being assigned to a particular K-level in 198 people with transtibial or transfemoral amputation. For people assigned to the K2 or K3 level by their clinician, the Amputee Mobility Predictor predicted the clinician-assigned K-level more than 80% of the time. For people assigned to the K1 or K4 level by their clinician, the prediction of clinician-assigned K-level was less accurate. The odds of being in a higher K-level improved with younger age and transfemoral amputation. Ordinal logistic regression can be used to predict the odds of being assigned to a particular K-level using the Amputee Mobility Predictor and patient characteristics. This pilot study highlighted critical method design issues, such as potential predictor variables and sample size requirements for future prospective research. Clinical relevance This pilot study demonstrated that the odds of being assigned a particular K-level could be predicted using the Amputee Mobility Predictor score and patient characteristics. While the model seemed sufficiently accurate to predict clinician assignment to the K2 or K3 level, further work is needed in larger and more representative samples, particularly for people with low (K1) and high (K4) levels of mobility, to be confident in the model's predictive value prior to use in clinical practice.

Deep learning for predicting the monsoon over the homogeneous regions of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Moumita; Mitra, Pabitra; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

2017-06-01

Indian monsoon varies in its nature over the geographical regions. Predicting the rainfall not just at the national level, but at the regional level is an important task. In this article, we used a deep neural network, namely, the stacked autoencoder to automatically identify climatic factors that are capable of predicting the rainfall over the homogeneous regions of India. An ensemble regression tree model is used for monsoon prediction using the identified climatic predictors. The proposed model provides forecast of the monsoon at a long lead time which supports the government to implement appropriate policies for the economic growth of the country. The monsoon of the central, north-east, north-west, and south-peninsular India regions are predicted with errors of 4.1%, 5.1%, 5.5%, and 6.4%, respectively. The identified predictors show high skill in predicting the regional monsoon having high variability. The proposed model is observed to be competitive with the state-of-the-art prediction models.

Hi-LAB: A New Measure of Aptitude for High-Level Language Proficiency

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Linck, Jared A.; Hughes, Meredith M.; Campbell, Susan G.; Silbert, Noah H.; Tare, Medha; Jackson, Scott R.; Smith, Benjamin K.; Bunting, Michael F.; Doughty, Catherine J.

2013-01-01

Few adult second language (L2) learners successfully attain high-level proficiency. Although decades of research on beginning to intermediate stages of L2 learning have identified a number of predictors of the rate of acquisition, little research has examined factors relevant to predicting very high levels of L2 proficiency. The current study,…

Coronary Risk Factor Scoring as a Guide for Counseling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleck, R. L.

1971-01-01

A risk factor scoring system for early detection, possible prediction, and counseling to coronary heart disease patients is discussed. Scoring data include dynamic EKG, cholesterol levels, triglycerine content, total lipid level, total phospolipid levels, and electrophoretic patterns. Results indicate such a system is effective in identifying high risk subjects, but that the ability to predict exceeds the ability to prevent heart disease or its complications.

Implicit and Explicit Attitudes Predict Smoking Cessation: Moderating Effects of Experienced Failure to Control Smoking and Plans to Quit

PubMed Central

Chassin, Laurie; Presson, Clark C.; Sherman, Steven J.; Seo, Dong-Chul; Macy, Jon

2010-01-01

The current study tested implicit and explicit attitudes as prospective predictors of smoking cessation in a Midwestern community sample of smokers. Results showed that the effects of attitudes significantly varied with levels of experienced failure to control smoking and plans to quit. Explicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with low (but not high or average) levels of experienced failure to control smoking. Conversely, however, implicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with high levels of experienced failure to control smoking, but only if they had a plan to quit. Because smoking cessation involves both controlled and automatic processes, interventions may need to consider attitude change interventions that focus on both implicit and explicit attitudes. PMID:21198227

An exploration of the prevalence and predictors of work-related well-being among psychosocial oncology professionals: An application of the job demands-resources model

PubMed Central

Turnell, Adrienne; Rasmussen, Victoria; Butow, Phyllis; Juraskova, Ilona; Kirsten, Laura; Wiener, Lori; Patenaude, Andrea; Hoekstra-Weebers, Josette; Grassi, Luigi

2016-01-01

Objective Burnout is reportedly high among oncology healthcare workers. Psychosocial oncologists may be particularly vulnerable to burnout. However, their work engagement may also be high, counteracting stress in the workplace. This study aimed to document the prevalence of both burnout and work engagement, and the predictors of both, utilizing the job demands–resources (JD–R) model, within a sample of psychosocial oncologists. Method Psychosocial-oncologist (N = 417) clinicians, recruited through 10 international and national psychosocial-oncology societies, completed an online questionnaire. Measures included demographic and work characteristics, burnout (the MBI–HSS Emotional Exhaustion (EE) and Depersonalization (DP) subscales), the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale, and measures of job demands and resources. Results High EE and DP was reported by 20.2 and 6.6% of participants, respectively, while 95.3% reported average to high work engagement. Lower levels of job resources and higher levels of job demands predicted greater burnout, as predicted by the JD–R model, but the predicted interaction between these characteristics and burnout was not significant. Higher levels of job resources predicted higher levels of work engagement. Significance of results Burnout was surprisingly low and work engagement high in this sample. Nonetheless, one in five psychosocial oncologists have high EE. Our results suggest that both the positive (resources) and negative (demands) aspects of this work environment have an on impact burnout and engagement, offering opportunities for intervention. Theories such as the JD–R model can be useful in guiding research in this area. PMID:26653250

Habitat selection of Rocky Mountain elk in a nonforested environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sawyer, H.; Nielson, R.M.; Lindzey, F.G.; Keith, L.; Powell, J.H.; Abraham, A.A.

2007-01-01

Recent expansions by Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) into nonforested habitats across the Intermountain West have required managers to reconsider the traditional paradigms of forage and cover as they relate to managing elk and their habitats. We examined seasonal habitat selection patterns of a hunted elk population in a nonforested high-desert region of southwestern Wyoming, USA. We used 35,246 global positioning system locations collected from 33 adult female elk to model probability of use as a function of 6 habitat variables: slope, aspect, elevation, habitat diversity, distance to shrub cover, and distance to road. We developed resource selection probability functions for individual elk, and then we averaged the coefficients to estimate population-level models for summer and winter periods. We used the population-level models to generate predictive maps by assigning pixels across the study area to 1 of 4 use categories (i.e., high, medium-high, medium-low, or low), based on quartiles of the predictions. Model coefficients and predictive maps indicated that elk selected for summer habitats characterized by higher elevations in areas of high vegetative diversity, close to shrub cover, northerly aspects, moderate slopes, and away from roads. Winter habitat selection patterns were similar, except elk shifted to areas with lower elevations and southerly aspects. We validated predictive maps by using 528 locations collected from an independent sample of radiomarked elk (n = 55) and calculating the proportion of locations that occurred in each of the 4 use categories. Together, the high- and medium-high use categories of the summer and winter predictive maps contained 92% and 74% of summer and winter elk locations, respectively. Our population-level models and associated predictive maps were successful in predicting winter and summer habitat use by elk in a nonforested environment. In the absence of forest cover, elk seemed to rely on a combination of shrubs, topography, and low human disturbance to meet their thermal and hiding cover requirements.

Baseline placental growth factor levels for the prediction of benefit from early aspirin prophylaxis for preeclampsia prevention.

PubMed

Moore, Gaea S; Allshouse, Amanda A; Winn, Virginia D; Galan, Henry L; Heyborne, Kent D

2015-10-01

Placental growth factor (PlGF) levels early in pregnancy are lower in women who ultimately develop preeclampsia. Early initiation of low-dose aspirin reduces preeclampsia risk in some high risk women. We hypothesized that low PlGF levels may identify women at increased risk for preeclampsia who would benefit from aspirin. Secondary analysis of the MFMU High-Risk Aspirin study including singleton pregnancies randomized to aspirin 60mg/d (n=102) or placebo (n=72), with PlGF collected at 13w 0d-16w 6d. Within the placebo group, we estimated the probability of preeclampsia by PlGF level using logistic regression analysis, then determined a potential PlGF threshold for preeclampsia prediction using ROC analysis. We performed logistic regression modeling for potential confounders. ROC analysis indicated 87.71pg/ml as the threshold between high and low PlGF for preeclampsia-prediction. Within the placebo group high PlGF weakly predicted preeclampsia (AUC 0.653, sensitivity/specificity 63%/66%). We noted a 2.6-fold reduction in preeclampsia with aspirin in the high-PlGF group (12.15% aspirin vs 32.14% placebo, p=0.057), but no significant differences in preeclampsia in the low PlGF group (21.74% vs 15.91%, p=0.445). Unlike other studies, we found that high rather than low PlGF levels were associated with an increased preeclampsia risk. Low PlGF neither identified women at increased risk of preeclampsia nor women who benefitted from aspirin. Further research is needed to determine whether aspirin is beneficial in women with high PlGF, and whether the paradigm linking low PlGF and preeclampsia needs to be reevaluated. High-risk women with low baseline PlGF, a risk factor for preeclampsia, did not benefit from early initiation of low-dose aspirin. Copyright © 2015 International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Roles of Family and Teacher Support in Moderating and Mediating Externalized and Internalized Outcomes of Exposure to Community Violence Among Arab and Jewish Adolescents in Israel.

PubMed

Haj-Yahia, Muhammad M; Leshem, Becky; Guterman, Neil B

2018-02-01

The study examined family and teacher support as factors that can protect adolescents from internalized and externalized problems after exposure to community violence (ECV). Self-administered questionnaires were filled out by a sample of 1,832 Arab and Jewish Israeli high school students. The Arab adolescents reported significantly higher levels of community violence victimization, internalized problems, externalized problems, family support, and teacher support than the Jewish adolescents. The girls reported higher levels of internalized problems, and the boys reported higher levels of externalized problems. ECV predicted high levels of internalized and externalized problems, family support predicted low levels of internalized and externalized problems, and teacher support had no predictive role. Path analysis confirmed the significance of the relationships between ECV effects, support variables, and gender. The limitations of the study and implications of the findings for future research and for the development of family care and family intervention programs are discussed.

The value of time-averaged serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein in prediction of mortality and dropout in peritoneal dialysis patients.

PubMed

Liu, Shou-Hsuan; Chen, Chao-Yu; Li, Yi-Jung; Wu, Hsin-Hsu; Lin, Chan-Yu; Chen, Yung-Chang; Chang, Ming-Yang; Hsu, Hsiang-Hao; Ku, Cheng-Lung; Tian, Ya-Chung

2017-01-01

C-reactive protein (CRP) is a useful biomarker for prediction of long-term outcomes in patients undergoing chronic dialysis. This observational cohort study evaluated whether the time-averaged serum high-sensitivity CRP (HS-CRP) level was a better predictor of clinical outcomes than a single HS-CRP level in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis (PD). We classified 335 patients into three tertiles according to the time-averaged serum HS-CRP level and followed up regularly from January 2010 to December 2014. Clinical outcomes such as cardiovascular events, infection episodes, newly developed malignancy, encapsulating peritoneal sclerosis (EPS), dropout (death plus conversion to hemodialysis), and mortality were assessed. During a 5-year follow-up, 164 patients (49.0%) ceased PD; this included 52 patient deaths (15.5%), 100 patients (29.9%) who converted to hemodialysis, and 12 patients (3.6%) who received a kidney transplantation. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and log-rank test revealed a significantly worse survival accumulation in patients with high time-average HS-CRP levels. A multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that a higher time-averaged serum HS-CRP level, older age, and the occurrence of cardiovascular events were independent mortality predictors. A higher time-averaged serum HS-CRP level, the occurrence of cardiovascular events, infection episodes, and EPS were important predictors of dropout. The receiver operating characteristic analysis verified that the value of the time-average HS-CRP level in predicting the 5-year mortality and dropout was superior to a single serum baseline HS-CRP level. This study shows that the time-averaged serum HS-CRP level is a better marker than a single baseline measurement in predicting the 5-year mortality and dropout in PD patients.

Student Burnout as a Function of Personality, Social Support, and Workload.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacobs, Sheri R.; Dodd, David K.

2003-01-01

Measures of social support, personality, and workload were related to psychological burnout among 149 college students. High levels of burnout were predicted by negative temperament and subjective workload, but actual workload (academic and vocational) had little to do with burnout. Low levels of burnout were predicted by positive temperament,…

Prediction of long-term transverse creep compliance in high-temperature IM7/LaRC-RP46 composites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yuan, F.G.; Potter, B.D.

1994-12-31

An experimental study is performed which predicts long-term tensile transverse creep compliance of high-temperature IM7/LaRC-RP46 composites from short-term creep and recovery tests. The short-term tests were conducted for various stress levels at various fixed temperatures. Predictive nonlinear viscoelastic model developed by Schapery and experimental procedure were used to predict the long-term results in terms of master curve extrapolated from short-term tests.

Plasma big endothelin-1 level and the severity of new-onset stable coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Chen, Juan; Chen, Man-Hua; Guo, Yuan-Lin; Zhu, Cheng-Gang; Xu, Rui-Xia; Dong, Qian; Li, Jian-Jun

2015-01-01

To investigate the usefulness of the plasma big endothelin-1 (big ET-1) level in predicting the severity of new-onset stable angiography-proven coronary artery disease (CAD). A total of 963 consecutive stable CAD patients with more than 50% stenosis in at least one main vessel were enrolled. The patients were classified into the three groups according to the tertile of the Gensini score (GS, low GS ＜20, n=300; intermediate GS 20-40, n=356 and high GS ＞40, n=307), and the relationship between the big ET-1 level and GS was evaluated. The plasma levels of big ET-1 increased significantly in association with increases in the GS tertile (p=0.007). A multivariate analysis suggested that the plasma big ET-1 level was an independent predictor for a high GS (OR=2.26, 95%CI: 1.23-4.15, p=0.009), and there was a positive correlation between the big ET-1 level and the GS (r=0.20, p=0.000). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the big ET-1 level in predicting a high GS was 0.64 (95% CI 0.60-0.68, p=0.000), and the optimal cutoff value for the plasma big ET-1 level for predicting a high GS was 0.34 fmol/mL, with a sensitivity of 62.6% and specificity of 60.3%. In the high-big ET-1 level group (≥0.34 fmol/mL), there were significantly increased rates of three-vessel disease (43.6% vs. 35.4%, p=0.017) and a high GS [31 (17-54) vs. 24 (16-44), p=0.001] compared with that observed in the low-big ET-1 level group. The present findings indicate that the plasma big ET-1 level is a useful predictor of the severity of new-onset stable CAD associated with significant stenosis.

Multi-fidelity machine learning models for accurate bandgap predictions of solids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pilania, Ghanshyam; Gubernatis, James E.; Lookman, Turab

Here, we present a multi-fidelity co-kriging statistical learning framework that combines variable-fidelity quantum mechanical calculations of bandgaps to generate a machine-learned model that enables low-cost accurate predictions of the bandgaps at the highest fidelity level. Additionally, the adopted Gaussian process regression formulation allows us to predict the underlying uncertainties as a measure of our confidence in the predictions. In using a set of 600 elpasolite compounds as an example dataset and using semi-local and hybrid exchange correlation functionals within density functional theory as two levels of fidelities, we demonstrate the excellent learning performance of the method against actual high fidelitymore » quantum mechanical calculations of the bandgaps. The presented statistical learning method is not restricted to bandgaps or electronic structure methods and extends the utility of high throughput property predictions in a significant way.« less

Multi-fidelity machine learning models for accurate bandgap predictions of solids

DOE PAGES

Pilania, Ghanshyam; Gubernatis, James E.; Lookman, Turab

2016-12-28

Here, we present a multi-fidelity co-kriging statistical learning framework that combines variable-fidelity quantum mechanical calculations of bandgaps to generate a machine-learned model that enables low-cost accurate predictions of the bandgaps at the highest fidelity level. Additionally, the adopted Gaussian process regression formulation allows us to predict the underlying uncertainties as a measure of our confidence in the predictions. In using a set of 600 elpasolite compounds as an example dataset and using semi-local and hybrid exchange correlation functionals within density functional theory as two levels of fidelities, we demonstrate the excellent learning performance of the method against actual high fidelitymore » quantum mechanical calculations of the bandgaps. The presented statistical learning method is not restricted to bandgaps or electronic structure methods and extends the utility of high throughput property predictions in a significant way.« less

High-resolution method for evolving complex interface networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Shucheng; Hu, Xiangyu Y.; Adams, Nikolaus A.

2018-04-01

In this paper we describe a high-resolution transport formulation of the regional level-set approach for an improved prediction of the evolution of complex interface networks. The novelty of this method is twofold: (i) construction of local level sets and reconstruction of a global level set, (ii) local transport of the interface network by employing high-order spatial discretization schemes for improved representation of complex topologies. Various numerical test cases of multi-region flow problems, including triple-point advection, single vortex flow, mean curvature flow, normal driven flow, dry foam dynamics and shock-bubble interaction show that the method is accurate and suitable for a wide range of complex interface-network evolutions. Its overall computational cost is comparable to the Semi-Lagrangian regional level-set method while the prediction accuracy is significantly improved. The approach thus offers a viable alternative to previous interface-network level-set method.

The Costs and Risks of Social Activism: A Study of Sanctuary Movement Activism.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiltfang, Gregory L.; McAdam, Doug

1991-01-01

Among 141 activists with varying levels of participation in the sanctuary movement, biographical availability factors--younger age and greater discretionary time--best predict high-cost activism (more hours devoted to the movement), whereas ideological socialization factors best predict high-risk activism (direct contact with refugees). Contains…

Extrinsic Cognitive Load Impairs Spoken Word Recognition in High- and Low-Predictability Sentences.

PubMed

Hunter, Cynthia R; Pisoni, David B

Listening effort (LE) induced by speech degradation reduces performance on concurrent cognitive tasks. However, a converse effect of extrinsic cognitive load on recognition of spoken words in sentences has not been shown. The aims of the present study were to (a) examine the impact of extrinsic cognitive load on spoken word recognition in a sentence recognition task and (b) determine whether cognitive load and/or LE needed to understand spectrally degraded speech would differentially affect word recognition in high- and low-predictability sentences. Downstream effects of speech degradation and sentence predictability on the cognitive load task were also examined. One hundred twenty young adults identified sentence-final spoken words in high- and low-predictability Speech Perception in Noise sentences. Cognitive load consisted of a preload of short (low-load) or long (high-load) sequences of digits, presented visually before each spoken sentence and reported either before or after identification of the sentence-final word. LE was varied by spectrally degrading sentences with four-, six-, or eight-channel noise vocoding. Level of spectral degradation and order of report (digits first or words first) were between-participants variables. Effects of cognitive load, sentence predictability, and speech degradation on accuracy of sentence-final word identification as well as recall of preload digit sequences were examined. In addition to anticipated main effects of sentence predictability and spectral degradation on word recognition, we found an effect of cognitive load, such that words were identified more accurately under low load than high load. However, load differentially affected word identification in high- and low-predictability sentences depending on the level of sentence degradation. Under severe spectral degradation (four-channel vocoding), the effect of cognitive load on word identification was present for high-predictability sentences but not for low-predictability sentences. Under mild spectral degradation (eight-channel vocoding), the effect of load was present for low-predictability sentences but not for high-predictability sentences. There were also reliable downstream effects of speech degradation and sentence predictability on recall of the preload digit sequences. Long digit sequences were more easily recalled following spoken sentences that were less spectrally degraded. When digits were reported after identification of sentence-final words, short digit sequences were recalled more accurately when the spoken sentences were predictable. Extrinsic cognitive load can impair recognition of spectrally degraded spoken words in a sentence recognition task. Cognitive load affected word identification in both high- and low-predictability sentences, suggesting that load may impact both context use and lower-level perceptual processes. Consistent with prior work, LE also had downstream effects on memory for visual digit sequences. Results support the proposal that extrinsic cognitive load and LE induced by signal degradation both draw on a central, limited pool of cognitive resources that is used to recognize spoken words in sentences under adverse listening conditions.

Oral Lactobacillus Counts Predict Weight Gain Susceptibility: A 6-Year Follow-Up Study

PubMed Central

Rosing, Johanne Aviaja; Walker, Karen Christina; Jensen, Benjamin A.H.; Heitmann, Berit L.

2017-01-01

Background Recent studies have shown an association between weight change and the makeup of the intestinal microbiota in humans. Specifically, Lactobacillus, a part of the entire gastrointestinal tract's microbiota, has been shown to contribute to weight regulation. Aim We examined the association between the level of oral Lactobacillus and the subsequent 6-year weight change in a healthy population of 322 Danish adults aged 35–65 years at baseline. Design Prospective observational study. Results In unadjusted analysis the level of oral Lactobacillus was inversely associated with subsequent 6-year change in BMI. A statistically significant interaction between the baseline level of oral Lactobacillus and the consumption of complex carbohydrates was found, e.g. high oral Lactobacillus count predicted weight loss for those with a low intake of complex carbohydrates, while a medium intake of complex carbohydrates predicted diminished weight gain. A closer examination of these relations showed that BMI change and Lactobacillus level was unrelated for those with high complex carbohydrate consumption. Conclusion A high level of oral Lactobacillus seems related to weight loss among those with medium and low intakes of complex carbohydrates. Absence, or a low level of oral Lactobacillus, may potentially be a novel marker to identify those at increased risk of weight gain. PMID:29020671

Oral Lactobacillus Counts Predict Weight Gain Susceptibility: A 6-Year Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Rosing, Johanne Aviaja; Walker, Karen Christina; Jensen, Benjamin A H; Heitmann, Berit L

2017-01-01

Recent studies have shown an association between weight change and the makeup of the intestinal microbiota in humans. Specifically, Lactobacillus, a part of the entire gastrointestinal tract's microbiota, has been shown to contribute to weight regulation. We examined the association between the level of oral Lactobacillus and the subsequent 6-year weight change in a healthy population of 322 Danish adults aged 35-65 years at baseline. Prospective observational study. In unadjusted analysis the level of oral Lactobacillus was inversely associated with subsequent 6-year change in BMI. A statistically significant interaction between the baseline level of oral Lactobacillus and the consumption of complex carbohydrates was found, e.g. high oral Lactobacillus count predicted weight loss for those with a low intake of complex carbohydrates, while a medium intake of complex carbohydrates predicted diminished weight gain. A closer examination of these relations showed that BMI change and Lactobacillus level was unrelated for those with high complex carbohydrate consumption. A high level of oral Lactobacillus seems related to weight loss among those with medium and low intakes of complex carbohydrates. Absence, or a low level of oral Lactobacillus, may potentially be a novel marker to identify those at increased risk of weight gain. © 2017 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

Connectivity Reveals Sources of Predictive Coding Signals in Early Visual Cortex During Processing of Visual Optic Flow.

PubMed

Schindler, Andreas; Bartels, Andreas

2017-05-01

Superimposed on the visual feed-forward pathway, feedback connections convey higher level information to cortical areas lower in the hierarchy. A prominent framework for these connections is the theory of predictive coding where high-level areas send stimulus interpretations to lower level areas that compare them with sensory input. Along these lines, a growing body of neuroimaging studies shows that predictable stimuli lead to reduced blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) responses compared with matched nonpredictable counterparts, especially in early visual cortex (EVC) including areas V1-V3. The sources of these modulatory feedback signals are largely unknown. Here, we re-examined the robust finding of relative BOLD suppression in EVC evident during processing of coherent compared with random motion. Using functional connectivity analysis, we show an optic flow-dependent increase of functional connectivity between BOLD suppressed EVC and a network of visual motion areas including MST, V3A, V6, the cingulate sulcus visual area (CSv), and precuneus (Pc). Connectivity decreased between EVC and 2 areas known to encode heading direction: entorhinal cortex (EC) and retrosplenial cortex (RSC). Our results provide first evidence that BOLD suppression in EVC for predictable stimuli is indeed mediated by specific high-level areas, in accord with the theory of predictive coding. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Superconductivity in dense carbon-based materials

DOE PAGES

Lu, Siyu; Liu, Hanyu; Naumov, Ivan I.; ...

2016-03-08

Guided by a simple strategy in searching of new superconducting materials we predict that high temperature superconductivity can be realized in classes of high-density materials having strong sp 3 chemical bonding and high lattice symmetry. Here, we examine in detail sodalite carbon frameworks doped with simple metals such as Li, Na, and Al. Though such materials share some common features with doped diamond, their doping level is not limited and the density of states at the Fermi level in them can be as high as that in the renowned MgB 2. Altogether, with other factors, this boosts the superconducting temperaturemore » (T c) in the materials investigated to higher levels compared to doped diamond. For example, the superconducting T c of sodalite-like NaC 6 is predicted to be above 100 K. This phase and a series of other sodalite-based superconductors are predicted to be metastable phases but are dynamically stable. In owing to the rigid carbon framework of these and related dense carbon-materials, these doped sodalite-based structures could be recoverable as potentially useful superconductors.« less

Implicit and explicit attitudes predict smoking cessation: moderating effects of experienced failure to control smoking and plans to quit.

PubMed

Chassin, Laurie; Presson, Clark C; Sherman, Steven J; Seo, Dong-Chul; Macy, Jonathan T

2010-12-01

The current study tested implicit and explicit attitudes as prospective predictors of smoking cessation in a Midwestern community sample of smokers. Results showed that the effects of attitudes significantly varied with levels of experienced failure to control smoking and plans to quit. Explicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with low (but not high or average) levels of experienced failure to control smoking. Conversely, however, implicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with high levels of experienced failure to control smoking, but only if they had a plan to quit. Because smoking cessation involves both controlled and automatic processes, interventions may need to consider attitude change interventions that focus on both implicit and explicit attitudes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

Responses of eastern Chinese coastal salt marshes to sea-level rise combined with vegetative and sedimentary processes.

PubMed

Ge, Zhen-Ming; Wang, Heng; Cao, Hao-Bin; Zhao, Bin; Zhou, Xiao; Peltola, Heli; Cui, Li-Fang; Li, Xiu-Zhen; Zhang, Li-Quan

2016-06-23

The impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal ecosystems have attracted worldwide attention in relation to global change. In this study, the salt marsh model for the Yangtze Estuary (SMM-YE, developed in China) and the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM, developed in the U.S.) were used to simulate the effects of SLR on the coastal salt marshes in eastern China. The changes in the dominant species in the plant community were also considered. Predictions based on the SLAMM indicated a trend of habitat degradation up to 2100; total salt marsh habitat area continued to decline (4-16%) based on the low-level scenario, with greater losses (6-25%) predicted under the high-level scenario. The SMM-YE showed that the salt marshes could be resilient to threats of SLR through the processes of accretion of mudflats, vegetation expansion and sediment trapping by plants. This model predicted that salt marsh areas increased (3-6%) under the low-level scenario. The decrease in the total habitat area with the SMM-YE under the high-level scenario was much lower than the SLAMM prediction. Nevertheless, SLR might negatively affect the salt marsh species that are not adapted to prolonged inundation. An adaptive strategy for responding to changes in sediment resources is necessary in the Yangtze Estuary.

Responses of eastern Chinese coastal salt marshes to sea-level rise combined with vegetative and sedimentary processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Zhen-Ming; Wang, Heng; Cao, Hao-Bin; Zhao, Bin; Zhou, Xiao; Peltola, Heli; Cui, Li-Fang; Li, Xiu-Zhen; Zhang, Li-Quan

2016-06-01

The impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal ecosystems have attracted worldwide attention in relation to global change. In this study, the salt marsh model for the Yangtze Estuary (SMM-YE, developed in China) and the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM, developed in the U.S.) were used to simulate the effects of SLR on the coastal salt marshes in eastern China. The changes in the dominant species in the plant community were also considered. Predictions based on the SLAMM indicated a trend of habitat degradation up to 2100; total salt marsh habitat area continued to decline (4-16%) based on the low-level scenario, with greater losses (6-25%) predicted under the high-level scenario. The SMM-YE showed that the salt marshes could be resilient to threats of SLR through the processes of accretion of mudflats, vegetation expansion and sediment trapping by plants. This model predicted that salt marsh areas increased (3-6%) under the low-level scenario. The decrease in the total habitat area with the SMM-YE under the high-level scenario was much lower than the SLAMM prediction. Nevertheless, SLR might negatively affect the salt marsh species that are not adapted to prolonged inundation. An adaptive strategy for responding to changes in sediment resources is necessary in the Yangtze Estuary.

The interaction between self-regulation and motivation prospectively predicting problem behavior in adolescence.

PubMed

Rhodes, Jessica D; Colder, Craig R; Trucco, Elisa M; Speidel, Carolyn; Hawk, Larry W; Lengua, Liliana J; Das Eiden, Rina; Wieczorek, William

2013-01-01

A large literature suggests associations between self-regulation and motivation and adolescent problem behavior; however, this research has mostly pitted these constructs against one another or tested them in isolation. Following recent neural-systems based theories (e.g., Ernst & Fudge, 2009 ), the present study investigated the interactions between self-regulation and approach and avoidance motivation prospectively predicting delinquency and depressive symptoms in early adolescence. The community sample included 387 adolescents aged 11 to 13 years old (55% female; 17% minority). Laboratory tasks were used to assess self-regulation and approach and avoidance motivation, and adolescent self-reports were used to measure depressive symptoms and delinquency. Analyses suggested that low levels of approach motivation were associated with high levels of depressive symptoms, but only at high levels of self-regulation (p = .01). High levels of approach were associated with high levels of rule breaking, but only at low levels of self-regulation (p < .05). These findings support contemporary neural-based systems theories that posit integration of motivational and self-regulatory individual differences via moderational models to understand adolescent problem behavior.

The Interaction Between Self-Regulation and Motivation Prospectively Predicting Problem Behavior in Adolescence

PubMed Central

Rhodes, Jessica D.; Colder, Craig R.; Trucco, Elisa M.; Speidel, Carolyn; Hawk, Larry W.; Lengua, Liliana J.; Eiden, Rina Das; Wiezcorek, William

2013-01-01

Objective A large literature suggests associations between self-regulation and motivation and adolescent problem behavior, however this research has mostly pitted these constructs against one another or tested them in isolation. Following recent neural-systems based theories (e.g., Ernst & Fudge, 2009), the present study investigated the interactions between self-regulation and approach and avoidance motivation prospectively predicting delinquency and depressive symptoms in early adolescence. Method The community sample included 387 adolescents aged 11–13 years old (55% female; 17% minority). Laboratory tasks were used to assess self-regulation and approach and avoidance motivation, and adolescent self-reports were used to measure depressive symptoms and delinquency. Results Analyses suggested that low levels of approach motivation were associated with high levels of depressive symptoms, but only at high levels of self-regulation (p = .01). High levels of approach were associated with high levels of rule breaking, but only at low levels of self-regulation (p < .05). Conclusions These findings support contemporary neural-based systems theories that posit integration of motivational and self-regulatory individual differences via moderational models to understand adolescent problem behavior. PMID:23477426

Validating a spatially distributed hydrological model with soil morphology data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doppler, T.; Honti, M.; Zihlmann, U.; Weisskopf, P.; Stamm, C.

2014-09-01

Spatially distributed models are popular tools in hydrology claimed to be useful to support management decisions. Despite the high spatial resolution of the computed variables, calibration and validation is often carried out only on discharge time series at specific locations due to the lack of spatially distributed reference data. Because of this restriction, the predictive power of these models, with regard to predicted spatial patterns, can usually not be judged. An example of spatial predictions in hydrology is the prediction of saturated areas in agricultural catchments. These areas can be important source areas for inputs of agrochemicals to the stream. We set up a spatially distributed model to predict saturated areas in a 1.2 km2 catchment in Switzerland with moderate topography and artificial drainage. We translated soil morphological data available from soil maps into an estimate of the duration of soil saturation in the soil horizons. This resulted in a data set with high spatial coverage on which the model predictions were validated. In general, these saturation estimates corresponded well to the measured groundwater levels. We worked with a model that would be applicable for management decisions because of its fast calculation speed and rather low data requirements. We simultaneously calibrated the model to observed groundwater levels and discharge. The model was able to reproduce the general hydrological behavior of the catchment in terms of discharge and absolute groundwater levels. However, the the groundwater level predictions were not accurate enough to be used for the prediction of saturated areas. Groundwater level dynamics were not adequately reproduced and the predicted spatial saturation patterns did not correspond to those estimated from the soil map. Our results indicate that an accurate prediction of the groundwater level dynamics of the shallow groundwater in our catchment that is subject to artificial drainage would require a model that better represents processes at the boundary between the unsaturated and the saturated zone. However, data needed for such a more detailed model are not generally available. This severely hampers the practical use of such models despite their usefulness for scientific purposes.

fRMSDPred: Predicting Local RMSD Between Structural Fragments Using Sequence Information

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-04-04

machine learning approaches for estimating the RMSD value of a pair of protein fragments. These estimated fragment-level RMSD values can be used to construct the alignment, assess the quality of an alignment, and identify high-quality alignment segments. We present algorithms to solve this fragment-level RMSD prediction problem using a supervised learning framework based on support vector regression and classification that incorporates protein profiles, predicted secondary structure, effective information encoding schemes, and novel second-order pairwise exponential kernel

Subseasonal to Seasonal Predictions of U.S. West Coast High Water Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khouakhi, A.; Villarini, G.; Zhang, W.; Slater, L. J.

2017-12-01

Extreme sea levels pose a significant threat to coastal communities, ecosystems, and assets, as they are conducive to coastal flooding, coastal erosion and inland salt-water intrusion. As sea levels continue to rise, these sea level extremes - including occasional minor coastal flooding experienced during high tide (nuisance floods) - are of concern. Extreme sea levels are increasing at many locations around the globe and have been attributed largely to rising mean sea levels associated with intra-seasonal to interannual climate processes such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, intra-seasonal to seasonal probabilistic forecasts of high water levels are computed at the Toke Point tide gage station on the US west coast. We first identify the main climate drivers that are responsible for high water levels and examine their predictability using General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). These drivers are then used to develop a probabilistic framework for the seasonal forecasting of high water levels. We focus on the climate controls on the frequency of high water levels using the number of exceedances above the 99.5th percentile and above the nuisance flood level established by the National Weather Service. Our findings indicate good forecast skill at the shortest lead time, with the skill that decreases as we increase the lead time. In general, these models aptly capture the year-to-year variability in the observational records.

High pre-transplant serum nitrate levels predict risk of acute steroid-refractory graft-versus-host disease in the absence of statin therapy

PubMed Central

Dietrich, Sascha; Okun, Jürgen G.; Schmidt, Kathrin; Falk, Christine S.; Wagner, Andreas H.; Karamustafa, Suzan; Radujkovic, Aleksandar; Hegenbart, Ute; Ho, Anthony D.; Dreger, Peter; Luft, Thomas

2014-01-01

Steroid-refractory graft-versus-host disease is a life-threatening complication after allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Evidence is accumulating that steroid-refractory graft-versus-host disease is associated with endothelial distress. Endothelial cell homeostasis is regulated by nitric oxide, and serum nitrates are derived from nitric oxide synthase activity or dietary sources. In this retrospective study based on 417 patients allografted at our institution we investigated whether quantification of serum nitrates could predict steroid-refractory graft-versus-host disease. Elevated pre-transplant levels of serum nitrates (>26.5 μM) predicted steroid-refractory graft-versus-host disease (P=0.026) and non-relapse mortality (P=0.028), particularly in combination with high pre-transplant angiopoietin-2 levels (P=0.0007 and P=0.021, respectively). Multivariate analyses confirmed serum nitrates as independent predictors of steroid-refractory graft-versus-host disease and non-relapse mortality. Differences in serum nitrate levels did not correlate with serum levels of tumor necrosis factor or C-reactive protein or expression of inducible nitric oxide synthase in blood cells. Patients with high pre-transplant nitrate levels had significantly reduced rates of refractory graft-versus-host disease (P=0.031) when pravastatin was taken. In summary, patients at high risk of developing steroid-refractory graft-versus-host disease could be identified prior to transplantation by serum markers linked to endothelial cell function. Retrospectively, statin medication was associated with a reduced incidence of refractory graft-versus-host disease in this endothelial high-risk cohort. PMID:24142995

The Role of Life Satisfaction and Parenting Styles in Predicting Delinquent Behaviors among High School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Onder, Fulya Cenkseven; Yilmaz, Yasin

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study is to determine whether the parenting styles and life satisfaction predict delinquent behaviors frequently or not. Firstly the data were collected from 471 girls and 410 boys, a total of 881 high school students. Then the research was carried out with 502 students showing low (n = 262, 52.2%) and high level of delinquent…

Social motives and cognitive power-sex associations: predictors of aggressive sexual behavior.

PubMed

Zurbriggen, E L

2000-03-01

The present study investigated whether implicit social motives and cognitive power-sex associations would predict self-reports of aggressive sexual behavior. Participants wrote stories in response to Thematic Apperception Test pictures, which were scored for power and affiliation-intimacy motives. They also completed a lexical-decision priming task that provided an index of the strength of the cognitive association between the concepts of "power" and "sexuality." For men, high levels of power motivation and strong power-sex associations predicted more frequent aggression. There was also an interaction: Power motivation was unrelated to aggression for men with the weakest power-sex associations. For women, high levels of affiliation-intimacy motivation were associated with more frequent aggression. Strong power-sex associations were also predictive for women but only when affiliation-intimacy motivation was high.

Risk of Acute Liver Failure in Patients With Drug-Induced Liver Injury: Evaluation of Hy's Law and a New Prognostic Model.

PubMed

Lo Re, Vincent; Haynes, Kevin; Forde, Kimberly A; Goldberg, David S; Lewis, James D; Carbonari, Dena M; Leidl, Kimberly B F; Reddy, K Rajender; Nezamzadeh, Melissa S; Roy, Jason; Sha, Daohang; Marks, Amy R; De Boer, Jolanda; Schneider, Jennifer L; Strom, Brian L; Corley, Douglas A

2015-12-01

Few studies have evaluated the ability of laboratory tests to predict risk of acute liver failure (ALF) among patients with drug-induced liver injury (DILI). We aimed to develop a highly sensitive model to identify DILI patients at increased risk of ALF. We compared its performance with that of Hy's Law, which predicts severity of DILI based on levels of alanine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase and total bilirubin, and validated the model in a separate sample. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 15,353 Kaiser Permanente Northern California members diagnosed with DILI from 2004 through 2010, liver aminotransferase levels above the upper limit of normal, and no pre-existing liver disease. Thirty ALF events were confirmed by medical record review. Logistic regression was used to develop prognostic models for ALF based on laboratory results measured at DILI diagnosis. External validation was performed in a sample of 76 patients with DILI at the University of Pennsylvania. Hy's Law identified patients that developed ALF with a high level of specificity (0.92) and negative predictive value (0.99), but low level of sensitivity (0.68) and positive predictive value (0.02). The model we developed, comprising data on platelet count and total bilirubin level, identified patients with ALF with a C statistic of 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.96) and enabled calculation of a risk score (Drug-Induced Liver Toxicity ALF Score). We found a cut-off score that identified patients at high risk patients for ALF with a sensitivity value of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.71-0.99) and a specificity value of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75-0.77). This cut-off score identified patients at high risk for ALF with a high level of sensitivity (0.89; 95% CI, 0.52-1.00) in the validation analysis. Hy's Law identifies patients with DILI at high risk for ALF with low sensitivity but high specificity. We developed a model (the Drug-Induced Liver Toxicity ALF Score) based on platelet count and total bilirubin level that identifies patients at increased risk for ALF with high sensitivity. Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Childhood temperament predictors of adolescent physical activity.

PubMed

Janssen, James A; Kolacz, Jacek; Shanahan, Lilly; Gangel, Meghan J; Calkins, Susan D; Keane, Susan P; Wideman, Laurie

2017-01-05

Physical inactivity is a leading cause of mortality worldwide. Many patterns of physical activity involvement are established early in life. To date, the role of easily identifiable early-life individual predictors of PA, such as childhood temperament, remains relatively unexplored. Here, we tested whether childhood temperamental activity level, high intensity pleasure, low intensity pleasure, and surgency predicted engagement in physical activity (PA) patterns 11 years later in adolescence. Data came from a longitudinal community study (N = 206 participants, 53% females, 70% Caucasian). Parents reported their children's temperamental characteristics using the Child Behavior Questionnaire (CBQ) when children were 4 & 5 years old. Approximately 11 years later, adolescents completed self-reports of PA using the Godin Leisure Time Exercise Questionnaire and the Youth Risk Behavior Survey. Ordered logistic regression, ordinary least squares linear regression, and Zero-inflated Poisson regression models were used to predict adolescent PA from childhood temperament. Race, socioeconomic status, and adolescent body mass index were used as covariates. Males with greater childhood temperamental activity level engaged in greater adolescent PA volume (B = .42, SE = .13) and a 1 SD difference in childhood temperamental activity level predicted 29.7% more strenuous adolescent PA per week. Males' high intensity pleasure predicted higher adolescent PA volume (B = .28, SE = .12). Males' surgency positively predicted more frequent PA activity (B = .47, SE = .23, OR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.02, 2.54) and PA volume (B = .31, SE = .12). No predictions from females' childhood temperament to later PA engagement were identified. Childhood temperament may influence the formation of later PA habits, particularly in males. Boys with high temperamental activity level, high intensity pleasure, and surgency may directly seek out pastimes that involve PA. Indirectly, temperament may also influence caregivers' perceptions of optimal activity choices for children. Understanding how temperament influences the development of PA patterns has the potential to inform efforts aimed at promoting long-term PA engagement and physical health.

Visual search for object categories is predicted by the representational architecture of high-level visual cortex

PubMed Central

Alvarez, George A.; Nakayama, Ken; Konkle, Talia

2016-01-01

Visual search is a ubiquitous visual behavior, and efficient search is essential for survival. Different cognitive models have explained the speed and accuracy of search based either on the dynamics of attention or on similarity of item representations. Here, we examined the extent to which performance on a visual search task can be predicted from the stable representational architecture of the visual system, independent of attentional dynamics. Participants performed a visual search task with 28 conditions reflecting different pairs of categories (e.g., searching for a face among cars, body among hammers, etc.). The time it took participants to find the target item varied as a function of category combination. In a separate group of participants, we measured the neural responses to these object categories when items were presented in isolation. Using representational similarity analysis, we then examined whether the similarity of neural responses across different subdivisions of the visual system had the requisite structure needed to predict visual search performance. Overall, we found strong brain/behavior correlations across most of the higher-level visual system, including both the ventral and dorsal pathways when considering both macroscale sectors as well as smaller mesoscale regions. These results suggest that visual search for real-world object categories is well predicted by the stable, task-independent architecture of the visual system. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Here, we ask which neural regions have neural response patterns that correlate with behavioral performance in a visual processing task. We found that the representational structure across all of high-level visual cortex has the requisite structure to predict behavior. Furthermore, when directly comparing different neural regions, we found that they all had highly similar category-level representational structures. These results point to a ubiquitous and uniform representational structure in high-level visual cortex underlying visual object processing. PMID:27832600

Investigation of energy transport in DIII-D high- β P EAST-demonstration discharges with the TGLF turbulent and NEO neoclassical transport models [Investigation of energy transport in DIII-D high- β P EAST-demonstration discharges with turbulent and neoclassical transport models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pan, Chengkang; Staebler, Gary M.; Lao, Lang L.

Here, energy transport analyses of DIII-D high-β P EAST-demonstration discharges have been performed using the TGYRO transport package with TGLF turbulent and NEO neoclassical transport models under the OMFIT integrated modeling framework. Ion energy transport is shown to be dominated by neoclassical transport and ion temperature profiles predicted by TGYRO agree closely with the experimental measured profiles for these high-β P discharges. Ion energy transport is largely insensitive to reductions in the E × B flow shear stabilization. The Shafranov shift is shown to play a role in the suppression of the ion turbulent energy transport below the neoclassical level.more » Electron turbulent energy transport is under-predicted by TGLF and a significant shortfall in the electron energy transport over the whole core plasma is found with TGLF predictions for these high-β P discharges. TGYRO can successfully predict the experimental ion and electron temperature profiles by artificially increasing the saturated turbulence level for ETG driven modes used in TGLF.« less

Investigation of energy transport in DIII-D high- β P EAST-demonstration discharges with the TGLF turbulent and NEO neoclassical transport models [Investigation of energy transport in DIII-D high- β P EAST-demonstration discharges with turbulent and neoclassical transport models

DOE PAGES

Pan, Chengkang; Staebler, Gary M.; Lao, Lang L.; ...

2017-01-11

Here, energy transport analyses of DIII-D high-β P EAST-demonstration discharges have been performed using the TGYRO transport package with TGLF turbulent and NEO neoclassical transport models under the OMFIT integrated modeling framework. Ion energy transport is shown to be dominated by neoclassical transport and ion temperature profiles predicted by TGYRO agree closely with the experimental measured profiles for these high-β P discharges. Ion energy transport is largely insensitive to reductions in the E × B flow shear stabilization. The Shafranov shift is shown to play a role in the suppression of the ion turbulent energy transport below the neoclassical level.more » Electron turbulent energy transport is under-predicted by TGLF and a significant shortfall in the electron energy transport over the whole core plasma is found with TGLF predictions for these high-β P discharges. TGYRO can successfully predict the experimental ion and electron temperature profiles by artificially increasing the saturated turbulence level for ETG driven modes used in TGLF.« less

Uric Acid Levels Can Predict Metabolic Syndrome and Hypertension in Adolescents: A 10-Year Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Sun, Hai-Lun; Pei, Dee; Lue, Ko-Huang; Chen, Yen-Lin

2015-01-01

The relationships between uric acid and chronic disease risk factors such as metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and hypertension have been studied in adults. However, whether these relationships exist in adolescents is unknown. We randomly selected 8,005 subjects who were between 10 to 15 years old at baseline. Measurements of uric acid were used to predict the future occurrence of metabolic syndrome, hypertension, and type 2 diabetes. In total, 5,748 adolescents were enrolled and followed for a median of 7.2 years. Using cutoff points of uric acid for males and females (7.3 and 6.2 mg/dl, respectively), a high level of uric acid was either the second or third best predictor for hypertension in both genders (hazard ratio: 2.920 for males, 5.222 for females; p<0.05). However, uric acid levels failed to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus, and only predicted metabolic syndrome in males (hazard ratio: 1.658; p<0.05). The same results were found in multivariate adjusted analysis. In conclusion, a high level of uric acid indicated a higher likelihood of developing hypertension in both genders and metabolic syndrome in males after 10 years of follow-up. However, uric acid levels did not affect the occurrence of type 2 diabetes in both genders.

Managerial Quality and Risk of Depressive Disorders Among Danish Eldercare Workers

PubMed Central

Rugulies, Reiner; Jakobsen, Louise M.; Madsen, Ida E.H.; Borg, Vilhelm; Carneiro, Isabella G.; Aust, Birgit

2018-01-01

Objective: To examine whether low managerial quality predicts risk of depressive disorders. Methods: Using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression analyses we examined the prospective association of individual-level and workplace-mean managerial quality with onset of depressive disorders among 5244 eldercare workers from 274 workplaces during 20 months follow-up. Results: Low managerial quality predicted onset of depressive disorders in both the individual-level (odds ratio [OR] = 1.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.25 to 2.76) and the workplace-mean analysis (OR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.06 to 2.07). Low individual-level managerial quality predicted onset of depressive disorders when workplace-mean managerial quality was high (OR = 3.10, 95% CI = 1.71 to 5.62) but not when it was low (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 0.61 to 1.87). This interaction was statistically significant (P = 0.03). Conclusions: Both low individual-level and low workplace-mean managerial quality predicted risk of depressive disorders. The association was strongest among individuals reporting low managerial quality at workplaces with high workplace-mean managerial quality. PMID:29023339

A non-LTE model for the Jovian methane infrared emissions at high spectral resolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halthore, Rangasayi N.; Allen, J. E., Jr.; Decola, Philip L.

1994-01-01

High resolution spectra of Jupiter in the 3.3 micrometer region have so far failed to reveal either the continuum or the line emissions that can be unambiguously attributed to the nu(sub 3) band of methane (Drossart et al. 1993; Kim et al. 1991). Nu(sub 3) line intensities predicted with the help of two simple non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE) models -- a two-level model and a three-level model, using experimentally determined relaxation coefficients, are shown to be one to three orders of magnitude respectively below the 3-sigma noise level of these observations. Predicted nu(sub 4) emission intensities are consistent with observed values. If the methane mixing ratio below the homopause is assumed as 2 x 10(exp -3), a value of about 300 K is derived as an upper limit to the temperature of the high stratosphere at microbar levels.

Soluble CD30 as a prognostic factor for outcome following renal transplantation.

PubMed

Platt, R E; Wu, K S T; Poole, K; Newstead, C G; Clark, B

2009-07-01

To determine whether measurement of soluble CD30 (sCD30) levels predicts for early rejection in a cohort of first deceased kidney transplant recipients. Pre-transplant serum samples were analysed for sCD30 levels using a commercial ELISA kit (Biotest). A 100 U/ml cut-off for "high sCD30" was applied. Clinical outcome parameters were biopsy-proven rejection episodes, creatinine levels and glomerular filtration rate. In the cohort of patients who experienced at least one episode of rejection in the first 6 months post-transplant, levels of pre-transplant sCD30 were significantly higher than in those who did not experience rejection. Despite this association, the occurrence of a high sCD30 level did not predict for rejection on an individual basis. The prognostic value of pre-transplant sCD30 testing is diminished by the large number of patients with high sCD30 levels who do not develop rejection. Although this limits the utility of the test in informing clinical management of individual patients, a high pre-transplant sCD30 level should still be considered a risk factor for poorer outcome.

The Neural Correlates of Hierarchical Predictions for Perceptual Decisions.

PubMed

Weilnhammer, Veith A; Stuke, Heiner; Sterzer, Philipp; Schmack, Katharina

2018-05-23

Sensory information is inherently noisy, sparse, and ambiguous. In contrast, visual experience is usually clear, detailed, and stable. Bayesian theories of perception resolve this discrepancy by assuming that prior knowledge about the causes underlying sensory stimulation actively shapes perceptual decisions. The CNS is believed to entertain a generative model aligned to dynamic changes in the hierarchical states of our volatile sensory environment. Here, we used model-based fMRI to study the neural correlates of the dynamic updating of hierarchically structured predictions in male and female human observers. We devised a crossmodal associative learning task with covertly interspersed ambiguous trials in which participants engaged in hierarchical learning based on changing contingencies between auditory cues and visual targets. By inverting a Bayesian model of perceptual inference, we estimated individual hierarchical predictions, which significantly biased perceptual decisions under ambiguity. Although "high-level" predictions about the cue-target contingency correlated with activity in supramodal regions such as orbitofrontal cortex and hippocampus, dynamic "low-level" predictions about the conditional target probabilities were associated with activity in retinotopic visual cortex. Our results suggest that our CNS updates distinct representations of hierarchical predictions that continuously affect perceptual decisions in a dynamically changing environment. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Bayesian theories posit that our brain entertains a generative model to provide hierarchical predictions regarding the causes of sensory information. Here, we use behavioral modeling and fMRI to study the neural underpinnings of such hierarchical predictions. We show that "high-level" predictions about the strength of dynamic cue-target contingencies during crossmodal associative learning correlate with activity in orbitofrontal cortex and the hippocampus, whereas "low-level" conditional target probabilities were reflected in retinotopic visual cortex. Our findings empirically corroborate theorizations on the role of hierarchical predictions in visual perception and contribute substantially to a longstanding debate on the link between sensory predictions and orbitofrontal or hippocampal activity. Our work fundamentally advances the mechanistic understanding of perceptual inference in the human brain. Copyright © 2018 the authors 0270-6474/18/385008-14$15.00/0.

Influence of the Number of Predicted Words on Text Input Speed in Participants With Cervical Spinal Cord Injury.

PubMed

Pouplin, Samuel; Roche, Nicolas; Vaugier, Isabelle; Jacob, Antoine; Figere, Marjorie; Pottier, Sandra; Antoine, Jean-Yves; Bensmail, Djamel

2016-02-01

To determine whether the number of words displayed in the word prediction software (WPS) list affects text input speed (TIS) in people with cervical spinal cord injury (SCI), and whether any influence is dependent on the level of the lesion. A cross-sectional trial. A rehabilitation center. Persons with cervical SCI (N=45). Lesion level was high (C4 and C5, American Spinal Injury Association [ASIA] grade A or B) for 15 participants (high-lesion group) and low (between C6 and C8, ASIA grade A or B) for 30 participants (low-lesion group). TIS was evaluated during four 10-minute copying tasks: (1) without WPS (Without); (2) with a display of 3 predicted words (3Words); (3) with a display of 6 predicted words (6Words); and (4) with a display of 8 predicted words (8Words). During the 4 copying tasks, TIS was measured objectively (characters per minute, number of errors) and subjectively through subject report (fatigue, perception of speed, cognitive load, satisfaction). For participants with low-cervical SCI, TIS without WPS was faster than with WPS, regardless of the number of words displayed (P<.001). For participants with high-cervical SCI, the use of WPS did not influence TIS (P=.99). There was no influence of the number of words displayed in a word prediction list on TIS; however, perception of TIS differed according to lesion level. For persons with low-cervical SCI, a small number of words should be displayed, or WPS should not be used at all. For persons with high-cervical SCI, a larger number of words displayed increases the comfort of use of WPS. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The cost of empathy: Parent-adolescent conflict predicts emotion dysregulation for highly empathic youth.

PubMed

Van Lissa, Caspar J; Hawk, Skyler T; Koot, Hans M; Branje, Susan; Meeus, Wim H J

2017-09-01

Empathy plays a key role in maintaining close relationships and promoting prosocial conflict resolution. However, research has not addressed the potential emotional cost of adolescents' high empathy, particularly when relationships are characterized by more frequent conflict. The present 6-year longitudinal study (N = 467) investigated whether conflict with parents predicted emotion dysregulation more strongly for high-empathy adolescents than for lower-empathy adolescents. Emotion dysregulation was operationalized at both the experiential level, using mood diary data collected for 3 weeks each year, and at the dispositional level, using annual self-report measures. In line with predictions, we found that more frequent adolescent-parent conflict predicted greater day-to-day mood variability and dispositional difficulties in emotion regulation for high-empathy adolescents, but not for average- and low-empathy adolescents. Mood variability and difficulties in emotion regulation, in turn, also predicted increased conflict with parents. These links were not moderated by empathy. Moreover, our research allowed for a novel investigation of the interplay between experiential and dispositional emotion dysregulation. Day-to-day mood variability predicted increasing dispositional difficulties in emotion regulation over time, which suggests that experiential dysregulation becomes consolidated into dispositional difficulties in emotion regulation. Moderated mediation analyses revealed that, for high-empathy adolescents, conflict was a driver of this dysregulation consolidation process. Finally, emotion dysregulation played a role in overtime conflict maintenance for high-empathy adolescents. This suggests that, through emotion dysregulation, high empathy may paradoxically also contribute to maintaining negative adolescent-parent interactions. Our research indicates that high empathy comes at a cost when adolescent-parent relationships are characterized by greater negativity. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Behaviour and burnout in medical students.

PubMed

Cecil, Jo; McHale, Calum; Hart, Jo; Laidlaw, Anita

2014-01-01

Background Burnout is prevalent in doctors and can impact on job dissatisfaction and patient care. In medical students, burnout is associated with poorer self-rated health; however, it is unclear what factors influence its development. This study investigated whether health behaviours predict burnout in medical students. Methods Medical students (n=356) at the Universities of St Andrews and Manchester completed an online questionnaire assessing: emotional exhaustion (EE), depersonalisation (DP), personal accomplishment (PA), alcohol use, physical activity, diet, and smoking. Results Approximately 55% (54.8%) of students reported high levels of EE, 34% reported high levels of DP, and 46.6% reported low levels of PA. Linear regression analysis revealed that year of study, physical activity, and smoking status significantly predicted EE whilst gender, year of study, and institution significantly predicted DP. PA was significantly predicted by alcohol binge score, year of study, gender, and physical activity. Conclusions Burnout is present in undergraduate medical students in the United Kingdom, and health behaviours, particularly physical activity, predict components of burnout. Gender, year of study, and institution also appear to influence the prevalence of burnout. Encouraging medical students to make healthier lifestyle choices early in their medical training may reduce the likelihood of the development of burnout.

Behaviour and burnout in medical students

PubMed Central

Cecil, Jo; McHale, Calum; Hart, Jo; Laidlaw, Anita

2014-01-01

Background Burnout is prevalent in doctors and can impact on job dissatisfaction and patient care. In medical students, burnout is associated with poorer self-rated health; however, it is unclear what factors influence its development. This study investigated whether health behaviours predict burnout in medical students. Methods Medical students (n=356) at the Universities of St Andrews and Manchester completed an online questionnaire assessing: emotional exhaustion (EE), depersonalisation (DP), personal accomplishment (PA), alcohol use, physical activity, diet, and smoking. Results Approximately 55% (54.8%) of students reported high levels of EE, 34% reported high levels of DP, and 46.6% reported low levels of PA. Linear regression analysis revealed that year of study, physical activity, and smoking status significantly predicted EE whilst gender, year of study, and institution significantly predicted DP. PA was significantly predicted by alcohol binge score, year of study, gender, and physical activity. Conclusions Burnout is present in undergraduate medical students in the United Kingdom, and health behaviours, particularly physical activity, predict components of burnout. Gender, year of study, and institution also appear to influence the prevalence of burnout. Encouraging medical students to make healthier lifestyle choices early in their medical training may reduce the likelihood of the development of burnout. PMID:25160716

Behaviour and burnout in medical students.

PubMed

Cecil, Jo; McHale, Calum; Hart, Jo; Laidlaw, Anita

2014-01-01

Burnout is prevalent in doctors and can impact on job dissatisfaction and patient care. In medical students, burnout is associated with poorer self-rated health; however, it is unclear what factors influence its development. This study investigated whether health behaviours predict burnout in medical students. Medical students (n=356) at the Universities of St Andrews and Manchester completed an online questionnaire assessing: emotional exhaustion (EE), depersonalisation (DP), personal accomplishment (PA), alcohol use, physical activity, diet, and smoking. Approximately 55% (54.8%) of students reported high levels of EE, 34% reported high levels of DP, and 46.6% reported low levels of PA. Linear regression analysis revealed that year of study, physical activity, and smoking status significantly predicted EE whilst gender, year of study, and institution significantly predicted DP. PA was significantly predicted by alcohol binge score, year of study, gender, and physical activity. Burnout is present in undergraduate medical students in the United Kingdom, and health behaviours, particularly physical activity, predict components of burnout. Gender, year of study, and institution also appear to influence the prevalence of burnout. Encouraging medical students to make healthier lifestyle choices early in their medical training may reduce the likelihood of the development of burnout.

Stock price prediction using geometric Brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farida Agustini, W.; Restu Affianti, Ika; Putri, Endah RM

2018-03-01

Geometric Brownian motion is a mathematical model for predicting the future price of stock. The phase that done before stock price prediction is determine stock expected price formulation and determine the confidence level of 95%. On stock price prediction using geometric Brownian Motion model, the algorithm starts from calculating the value of return, followed by estimating value of volatility and drift, obtain the stock price forecast, calculating the forecast MAPE, calculating the stock expected price and calculating the confidence level of 95%. Based on the research, the output analysis shows that geometric Brownian motion model is the prediction technique with high rate of accuracy. It is proven with forecast MAPE value ≤ 20%.

Goal adjustment, physical and sedentary activity, and well-being and health among breast cancer survivors.

PubMed

Wrosch, Carsten; Sabiston, Catherine M

2013-03-01

This longitudinal study examined whether goal adjustment capacities (i.e., goal disengagement and goal reengagement) would predict breast cancer survivors' emotional well-being and physical health by facilitating high levels of physical activity and low levels of sedentary activity. Self-reports of goal adjustment capacities were measured among 176 female breast cancer survivors at baseline. Self-reports of physical activity, sedentary activity, daily affect, and daily physical health symptoms (e.g., nausea or pain) were measured at baseline and 3-month follow-up. Goal reengagement predicted high levels of positive affect and low levels of physical symptoms at baseline and increases in positive affect over 3 months. The combination of high goal disengagement and high goal reengagement was associated with particularly large 3-month increases in positive affect. The effects of goal reengagement on baseline affect and physical health were mediated by high baseline levels of physical activity, and the interaction effect on 3-month changes in positive affect was mediated by low baseline levels of sedentary activity. Goal adjustment capacities can exert beneficial effects on breast cancer survivors' well-being and physical health by facilitating adaptive levels of physical and sedentary activity. Integrating goal adjustment processes into clinical practice may be warranted. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Noise Level Prediction Method Based on Electro-Mechanical Frequency Response Function for Capacitors

PubMed Central

Zhu, Lingyu; Ji, Shengchang; Shen, Qi; Liu, Yuan; Li, Jinyu; Liu, Hao

2013-01-01

The capacitors in high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) converter stations radiate a lot of audible noise which can reach higher than 100 dB. The existing noise level prediction methods are not satisfying enough. In this paper, a new noise level prediction method is proposed based on a frequency response function considering both electrical and mechanical characteristics of capacitors. The electro-mechanical frequency response function (EMFRF) is defined as the frequency domain quotient of the vibration response and the squared capacitor voltage, and it is obtained from impulse current experiment. Under given excitations, the vibration response of the capacitor tank is the product of EMFRF and the square of the given capacitor voltage in frequency domain, and the radiated audible noise is calculated by structure acoustic coupling formulas. The noise level under the same excitations is also measured in laboratory, and the results are compared with the prediction. The comparison proves that the noise prediction method is effective. PMID:24349105

A noise level prediction method based on electro-mechanical frequency response function for capacitors.

PubMed

Zhu, Lingyu; Ji, Shengchang; Shen, Qi; Liu, Yuan; Li, Jinyu; Liu, Hao

2013-01-01

The capacitors in high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) converter stations radiate a lot of audible noise which can reach higher than 100 dB. The existing noise level prediction methods are not satisfying enough. In this paper, a new noise level prediction method is proposed based on a frequency response function considering both electrical and mechanical characteristics of capacitors. The electro-mechanical frequency response function (EMFRF) is defined as the frequency domain quotient of the vibration response and the squared capacitor voltage, and it is obtained from impulse current experiment. Under given excitations, the vibration response of the capacitor tank is the product of EMFRF and the square of the given capacitor voltage in frequency domain, and the radiated audible noise is calculated by structure acoustic coupling formulas. The noise level under the same excitations is also measured in laboratory, and the results are compared with the prediction. The comparison proves that the noise prediction method is effective.

Continuous real-time in vivo measurement of cerebral nitric oxide supports theoretical predictions of an irreversible switching in cerebral ROS after sufficient exposure to external toxins.

PubMed

Finnerty, Niall J; O'Riordan, Saidhbhe L; Lowry, John P; Cloutier, Mathieu; Wellstead, Peter

2013-01-01

Mathematical models of the interactions between alphasynuclein (αS) and reactive oxygen species (ROS) predict a systematic and irreversible switching to damagingly high levels of ROS after sufficient exposure to risk factors associated with Parkinson's disease (PD). We tested this prediction by continuously monitoring real-time changes in neurochemical levels over periods of several days in animals exposed to a toxin known to cause Parkinsonian symptoms. Nitric oxide (NO) sensors were implanted in the brains of freely moving rats and the NO levels continuously recorded while the animals were exposed to paraquat (PQ) injections of various amounts and frequencies. Long-term, real-time measurement of NO in a cohort of animals showed systematic switching in levels when PQ injections of sufficient size and frequency were administered. The experimental observations of changes in NO imply a corresponding switching in endogenous ROS levels and support theoretical predictions of an irreversible change to damagingly high levels of endogenous ROS when PD risks are sufficiently large. Our current results only consider one form of PD risk, however, we are sufficiently confident in them to conclude that: (i) continuous long-term measurement of neurochemical dynamics provide a novel way to measure the temporal change and system dynamics which determine Parkinsonian damage, and (ii) the bistable feedback switching predicted by mathematical modelling seems to exist and that a deeper analysis of its characteristics would provide a way of understanding the pathogenic mechanisms that initiate Parkinsonian cell damage.

Expectancy modulates pupil size during endogenous orienting of spatial attention.

PubMed

Dragone, Alessio; Lasaponara, Stefano; Pinto, Mario; Rotondaro, Francesca; De Luca, Maria; Doricchi, Fabrizio

2018-05-01

fMRI investigations in healthy humans have documented phasic changes in the level of activation of the right temporal-parietal junction (TPJ) during cued voluntary orienting of spatial attention. Cues that correctly predict the position of upcoming targets in the majority of trials, i.e., predictive cues, produce higher deactivation of the right TPJ as compared with non-predictive cues. Since the right TPJ is the recipient of noradrenergic (NE) innervation, it has been hypothesised that changes in the level of TPJ activity are matched with changes in the level of NE activity. Based on aforementioned fMRI findings, this might imply that orienting with predictive cues is matched with different levels of NE activity as compared with non-predictive cues. To test this hypothesis, we measured changes in pupil dilation, an indirect index of NE activity, during voluntary orienting of attention with highly predictive (80% validity) or non-predictive (50% validity) cues. In agreement with current interpretations of the tonic/phasic activity of the Locus Coeruleus-Norepinephrinic system (LC-NE), we found that the steady level of cue predictiveness that characterised both the predictive and non-predictive conditions caused, across consecutive blocks of trials, a progressive decrement in pupil dilation during the baseline-fixation period that anticipated the cue period. With predictive cues we observed increased pupil dilation as compared with non-predictive cues. In addition, the relative reduction in pupil size observed with non-predictive cues increased as a function of cue-duration. These results show that changes in the predictiveness of cues that guide voluntary orienting of spatial attention are matched with changes in pupil dilation and, putatively, with corresponding changes in LC-NE activity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical value of circulating endothelial cell levels in metastatic colorectal cancer patients treated with first-line chemotherapy and bevacizumab.

PubMed

Malka, D; Boige, V; Jacques, N; Vimond, N; Adenis, A; Boucher, E; Pierga, J Y; Conroy, T; Chauffert, B; François, E; Guichard, P; Galais, M P; Cvitkovic, F; Ducreux, M; Farace, F

2012-04-01

We investigated whether circulating endothelial cells (CECs) predict clinical outcome of first-line chemotherapy and bevacizumab in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients. In a substudy of the randomized phase II FNCLCC ACCORD 13/0503 trial, CECs (CD45- CD31+ CD146+ 7-amino-actinomycin- cells) were enumerated in 99 patients by four-color flow cytometry at baseline and after one cycle of treatment. We correlated CEC levels with objective response rate (ORR), 6-month progression-free survival (PFS) rate (primary end point of the trial), PFS, and overall survival (OS). Multivariate analyses of potential prognostic factors, including CEC counts and Köhne score, were carried out. By multivariate analysis, high baseline CEC levels were the only independent prognostic factor for 6-month PFS rate (P < 0.01) and were independently associated with worse PFS (P = 0.02). High CEC levels after one cycle were the only independent prognostic factor for ORR (P = 0.03). High CEC levels at both time points independently predicted worse ORR (P = 0.025), 6-month PFS rate (P = 0.007), and PFS (P = 0.02). Köhne score was the only variable associated with OS. CEC levels at baseline and after one treatment cycle may independently predict ORR and PFS in mCRC patients starting first-line bevacizumab and chemotherapy.

Protein disorder is positively correlated with gene expression in E. coli

PubMed Central

Paliy, Oleg; Gargac, Shawn M.; Cheng, Yugong; Uversky, Vladimir N.; Dunker, A. Keith

2009-01-01

We considered on a global scale the relationship between the predicted fraction of protein disorder and RNA and protein expression in E. coli. Fraction of protein disorder correlated positively with both measured RNA expression levels of E. coli genes in three different growth media and with predicted abundance levels of E. coli proteins. Though weak, the correlation was highly significant. Correlation of protein disorder with RNA expression did not depend on the growth rate of E. coli cultures and was not caused by a small subset of genes showing exceptionally high concordance in their disorder and expression levels. Global analysis was complemented by detailed consideration of several groups of proteins. PMID:18465893

Predicting Gene Expression Level from Relative Codon Usage Bias: An Application to Escherichia coli Genome

PubMed Central

Roymondal, Uttam; Das, Shibsankar; Sahoo, Satyabrata

2009-01-01

We present an expression measure of a gene, devised to predict the level of gene expression from relative codon bias (RCB). There are a number of measures currently in use that quantify codon usage in genes. Based on the hypothesis that gene expressivity and codon composition is strongly correlated, RCB has been defined to provide an intuitively meaningful measure of an extent of the codon preference in a gene. We outline a simple approach to assess the strength of RCB (RCBS) in genes as a guide to their likely expression levels and illustrate this with an analysis of Escherichia coli (E. coli) genome. Our efforts to quantitatively predict gene expression levels in E. coli met with a high level of success. Surprisingly, we observe a strong correlation between RCBS and protein length indicating natural selection in favour of the shorter genes to be expressed at higher level. The agreement of our result with high protein abundances, microarray data and radioactive data demonstrates that the genomic expression profile available in our method can be applied in a meaningful way to the study of cell physiology and also for more detailed studies of particular genes of interest. PMID:19131380

Predicting New Jersey High School Proficiency Test Results in Mathematics and Language Arts Using Community Demographic Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lynch, Christopher D.

2015-01-01

This study examined the relationship between the 2013 New Jersey High School Proficiency Assessment (HSPA) Language Arts and Mathematics scores and school level data related to family human capital and community social capital found in the extant literature to influence student achievement on high-stakes standardized assessments. School level data…

Implicit Race Bias Decreases the Similarity of Neural Representations of Black and White Faces

PubMed Central

Brosch, Tobias; Bar-David, Eyal; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

Implicit race bias has been shown to affect decisions and behaviors. It may also change perceptual experience by increasing perceived differences between social groups. We investigated how this phenomenon may be expressed at the neural level by testing whether the distributed blood-oxygenation-level-dependent (BOLD) patterns representing Black and White faces are more dissimilar in participants with higher implicit race bias. We used multivoxel pattern analysis to predict the race of faces participants were viewing. We successfully predicted the race of the faces on the basis of BOLD activation patterns in early occipital visual cortex, occipital face area, and fusiform face area (FFA). Whereas BOLD activation patterns in early visual regions, likely reflecting different perceptual features, allowed successful prediction for all participants, successful prediction on the basis of BOLD activation patterns in FFA, a high-level face-processing region, was restricted to participants with high pro-White bias. These findings suggest that stronger implicit pro-White bias decreases the similarity of neural representations of Black and White faces. PMID:23300228

Possible Selves and Self-Regulatory Beliefs: Exploring the Relationship Between Health Selves, Health Efficacy, and Psychological Well-Being.

PubMed

Dark-Freudeman, Alissa; West, Robin L

2016-03-01

The present study identified middle-aged (ages 40-64) and older individuals (ages 65-90) who reported a highly important possible self related to health. The relationship between age, physical health, health efficacy, and psychological well-being were examined among these individuals. We tested a model in which health efficacy predicted both positive and negative psychological well-being. For both age groups, self-reported health predicted health self-efficacy; however, the direct effects of health efficacy on both positive and negative psychological well-being were also significant. Higher levels of health efficacy were associated with higher levels of positive psychological well-being and lower levels of negative well-being, as predicted. Physical health indirectly predicted well-being through its impact on health self-efficacy for middle-aged and older individuals who valued their health highly. Overall, these results support the notion that health efficacy related to a most important health self is a predictor of psychological well-being in mid and late life. © The Author(s) 2016.

Behavioral oscillation in face priming: Prediction about face identity is updated at a theta-band rhythm.

PubMed

Wang, Yuanye; Luo, Huan

2017-01-01

In order to deal with external world efficiently, the brain constantly generates predictions about incoming sensory inputs, a process known as "predictive coding." Our recent studies, by employing visual priming paradigms in combination with a time-resolved behavioral measurement, reveal that perceptual predictions about simple features (e.g., left or right orientation) return to low sensory areas not continuously but recurrently in a theta-band (3-4Hz) rhythm. However, it remains unknown whether high-level object processing is also mediated by the oscillatory mechanism and if yes at which rhythm the mechanism works. In the present study, we employed a morph-face priming paradigm and the time-resolved behavioral measurements to examine the fine temporal dynamics of face identity priming performance. First, we reveal classical priming effects and a rhythmic trend within the prime-to-probe SOA of 600ms (Experiment 1). Next, we densely sampled the face priming behavioral performances within this SOA range (Experiment 2). Our results demonstrate a significant ~5Hz oscillatory component in the face priming behavioral performances, suggesting that a rhythmic process also coordinates the object-level prediction (i.e., face identity here). In comparison to our previous studies, the results suggest that the rhythm for the high-level object is faster than that for simple features. We propose that the seemingly distinctive priming rhythms might be attributable to that the object-level and simple feature-level predictions return to different stages along the visual pathway (e.g., FFA area for face priming and V1 area for simple feature priming). In summary, the findings support a general theta-band (3-6Hz) temporal organization mechanism in predictive coding, and that such wax-and-waning pattern in predictive coding may aid the brain to be more readily updated for new inputs. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Large Civil Tiltrotor (LCTR2) Interior Noise Predictions due to Turbulent Boundary Layer Excitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grosveld, Ferdinand W.

2013-01-01

The Large Civil Tiltrotor (LCTR2) is a conceptual vehicle that has a design goal to transport 90 passengers over a distance of 1800 km at a speed of 556 km/hr. In this study noise predictions were made in the notional LCTR2 cabin due to Cockburn/Robertson and Efimtsov turbulent boundary layer (TBL) excitation models. A narrowband hybrid Finite Element (FE) analysis was performed for the low frequencies (6-141 Hz) and a Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) was conducted for the high frequency one-third octave bands (125- 8000 Hz). It is shown that the interior sound pressure level distribution in the low frequencies is governed by interactions between individual structural and acoustic modes. The spatially averaged predicted interior sound pressure levels for the low frequency hybrid FE and the high frequency SEA analyses, due to the Efimtsov turbulent boundary layer excitation, were within 1 dB in the common 125 Hz one-third octave band. The averaged interior noise levels for the LCTR2 cabin were predicted lower than the levels in a comparable Bombardier Q400 aircraft cabin during cruise flight due to the higher cruise altitude and lower Mach number of the LCTR2. LCTR2 cabin noise due to TBL excitation during cruise flight was found not unacceptable for crew or passengers when predictions were compared to an acoustic survey on a Q400 aircraft.

Low-level information and high-level perception: the case of speech in noise.

PubMed

Nahum, Mor; Nelken, Israel; Ahissar, Merav

2008-05-20

Auditory information is processed in a fine-to-crude hierarchical scheme, from low-level acoustic information to high-level abstract representations, such as phonological labels. We now ask whether fine acoustic information, which is not retained at high levels, can still be used to extract speech from noise. Previous theories suggested either full availability of low-level information or availability that is limited by task difficulty. We propose a third alternative, based on the Reverse Hierarchy Theory (RHT), originally derived to describe the relations between the processing hierarchy and visual perception. RHT asserts that only the higher levels of the hierarchy are immediately available for perception. Direct access to low-level information requires specific conditions, and can be achieved only at the cost of concurrent comprehension. We tested the predictions of these three views in a series of experiments in which we measured the benefits from utilizing low-level binaural information for speech perception, and compared it to that predicted from a model of the early auditory system. Only auditory RHT could account for the full pattern of the results, suggesting that similar defaults and tradeoffs underlie the relations between hierarchical processing and perception in the visual and auditory modalities.

Effect of sample size on multi-parametric prediction of tissue outcome in acute ischemic stroke using a random forest classifier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkert, Nils Daniel; Fiehler, Jens

2015-03-01

The tissue outcome prediction in acute ischemic stroke patients is highly relevant for clinical and research purposes. It has been shown that the combined analysis of diffusion and perfusion MRI datasets using high-level machine learning techniques leads to an improved prediction of final infarction compared to single perfusion parameter thresholding. However, most high-level classifiers require a previous training and, until now, it is ambiguous how many subjects are required for this, which is the focus of this work. 23 MRI datasets of acute stroke patients with known tissue outcome were used in this work. Relative values of diffusion and perfusion parameters as well as the binary tissue outcome were extracted on a voxel-by- voxel level for all patients and used for training of a random forest classifier. The number of patients used for training set definition was iteratively and randomly reduced from using all 22 other patients to only one other patient. Thus, 22 tissue outcome predictions were generated for each patient using the trained random forest classifiers and compared to the known tissue outcome using the Dice coefficient. Overall, a logarithmic relation between the number of patients used for training set definition and tissue outcome prediction accuracy was found. Quantitatively, a mean Dice coefficient of 0.45 was found for the prediction using the training set consisting of the voxel information from only one other patient, which increases to 0.53 if using all other patients (n=22). Based on extrapolation, 50-100 patients appear to be a reasonable tradeoff between tissue outcome prediction accuracy and effort required for data acquisition and preparation.

The Impact of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty on Air Traffic Controller Performance and Acceptability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mercer, Joey S.; Bienert, Nancy; Gomez, Ashley; Hunt, Sarah; Kraut, Joshua; Martin, Lynne; Morey, Susan; Green, Steven M.; Prevot, Thomas; Wu, Minghong G.

2013-01-01

A Human-In-The-Loop air traffic control simulation investigated the impact of uncertainties in trajectory predictions on NextGen Trajectory-Based Operations concepts, seeking to understand when the automation would become unacceptable to controllers or when performance targets could no longer be met. Retired air traffic controllers staffed two en route transition sectors, delivering arrival traffic to the northwest corner-post of Atlanta approach control under time-based metering operations. Using trajectory-based decision-support tools, the participants worked the traffic under varying levels of wind forecast error and aircraft performance model error, impacting the ground automations ability to make accurate predictions. Results suggest that the controllers were able to maintain high levels of performance, despite even the highest levels of trajectory prediction errors.

MHA admission criteria and program performance: do they predict career performance?

PubMed

Porter, J; Galfano, V J

1987-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine to what extent admission criteria predict graduate school and career performance. The study also analyzed which objective and subjective criteria served as the best predictors. MHA graduates of the University of Minnesota from 1974 to 1977 were surveyed to assess career performance. Student files served as the data base on admission criteria and program performance. Career performance was measured by four variables: total compensation, satisfaction, fiscal responsibility, and level of authority. High levels of MHA program performance were associated with women who had high undergraduate GPAs from highly selective undergraduate colleges, were undergraduate business majors, and participated in extracurricular activities. High levels of compensation were associated with relatively low undergraduate GPAs, high levels of participation in undergraduate extracurricular activities, and being single at admission to graduate school. Admission to MHA programs should be based upon both objective and subjective criteria. Emphasis should be placed upon the selection process for MHA students since admission criteria are shown to explain 30 percent of the variability in graduate program performance, and as much as 65 percent of the variance in level of position authority.

Prosocial Behavior: Long-Term Trajectories and Psychosocial Outcomes.

PubMed

Flynn, Elinor; Ehrenreich, Samuel E; Beron, Kurt J; Underwood, Marion K

2015-08-01

This study investigated developmental trajectories for prosocial behavior for a sample followed from age 10 - 18 and examined possible adjustment outcomes associated with membership in different trajectory groups. Participants were 136 boys and 148 girls, their teachers, and their parents (19.4% African American, 2.4% Asian, 51.9% Caucasian, 19.5% Hispanic, and 5.8% other). Teachers rated children's prosocial behavior yearly in grades 4 - 12. At the end of the 12 th grade year, teachers, parents, and participants reported externalizing behaviors and participants reported internalizing symptoms, narcissism, and features of borderline personality disorder. Results suggested that prosocial behavior remained stable from middle childhood through late adolescence. Group-based mixture modeling revealed three prosocial trajectory groups: low (18.7%), medium (52.8%), and high (29.6%). Membership in the high prosocial trajectory group predicted lower levels of externalizing behavior as compared to the low prosocial trajectory group, and for girls, lower levels of internalizing symptoms. Membership in the medium prosocial trajectory group also predicted being lower on externalizing behaviors. Membership in the high prosocial trajectory group predicted lower levels of borderline personality features for girls only.

Behavior of predicted convective clouds and precipitation in the high-resolution Unified Model over the Indian summer monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayakumar, A.; Sethunadh, Jisesh; Rakhi, R.; Arulalan, T.; Mohandas, Saji; Iyengar, Gopal R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

2017-05-01

National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting high-resolution regional convective-scale Unified Model with latest tropical science settings is used to evaluate vertical structure of cloud and precipitation over two prominent monsoon regions: Western Ghats (WG) and Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ). Model radar reflectivity generated using Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package along with CloudSat profiling radar reflectivity is sampled for an active synoptic situation based on a new method using Budyko's index of turbulence (BT). Regime classification based on BT-precipitation relationship is more predominant during the active monsoon period when convective-scale model's resolution increases from 4 km to 1.5 km. Model predicted precipitation and vertical distribution of hydrometeors are found to be generally in agreement with Global Precipitation Measurement products and BT-based CloudSat observation, respectively. Frequency of occurrence of radar reflectivity from model implies that the low-level clouds below freezing level is underestimated compared to the observations over both regions. In addition, high-level clouds in the model predictions are much lesser over WG than MCZ.

Reciprocal Relations Between Parents’ Physical Discipline and Children’s Externalizing Behavior During Middle Childhood and Adolescence

PubMed Central

Lansford, Jennifer E.; Criss, Michael M.; Laird, Robert D.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Pettit, Gregory S.; Bates, John E.; Dodge, Kenneth A.

2010-01-01

Using data from two long-term longitudinal projects, we investigated reciprocal relations between maternal reports of physical discipline and teacher and self ratings of child externalizing behavior, accounting for continuity in both discipline and externalizing over time. In Study 1, which followed a community sample of 562 boys and girls from age 6–9, high levels of physical discipline in a given year predicted high levels of externalizing behavior in the next year, and externalizing behavior in a given year predicted high levels of physical discipline in the next year. In Study 2, which followed an independent sample of 290 lower income, higher risk boys from age 10–15, mother-reported physical discipline in a given year predicted child ratings of antisocial behavior in the next year, but child antisocial behavior in a given year did not predict parents’ use of physical discipline in the next year. In neither sample was there evidence that associations between physical discipline and child externalizing changed as the child aged, and findings were not moderated by gender, race, socioeconomic status, or the severity of the physical discipline. Implications for the reciprocal nature of the socialization process and the risks associated with physical discipline are discussed. PMID:21262050

Reciprocal relations between parents' physical discipline and children's externalizing behavior during middle childhood and adolescence.

PubMed

Lansford, Jennifer E; Criss, Michael M; Laird, Robert D; Shaw, Daniel S; Pettit, Gregory S; Bates, John E; Dodge, Kenneth A

2011-02-01

Using data from two long-term longitudinal projects, we investigated reciprocal relations between maternal reports of physical discipline and teacher and self-ratings of child externalizing behavior, accounting for continuity in both discipline and externalizing over time. In Study 1, which followed a community sample of 562 boys and girls from age 6 to 9, high levels of physical discipline in a given year predicted high levels of externalizing behavior in the next year, and externalizing behavior in a given year predicted high levels of physical discipline in the next year. In Study 2, which followed an independent sample of 290 lower income, higher risk boys from age 10 to 15, mother-reported physical discipline in a given year predicted child ratings of antisocial behavior in the next year, but child antisocial behavior in a given year did not predict parents' use of physical discipline in the next year. In neither sample was there evidence that associations between physical discipline and child externalizing changed as the child aged, and findings were not moderated by gender, race, socioeconomic status, or the severity of the physical discipline. Implications for the reciprocal nature of the socialization process and the risks associated with physical discipline are discussed.

Regional sea level variability in a high-resolution global coupled climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palko, D.; Kirtman, B. P.

2016-12-01

The prediction of trends at regional scales is essential in order to adapt to and prepare for the effects of climate change. However, GCMs are unable to make reliable predictions at regional scales. The prediction of local sea level trends is particularly critical. The main goal of this research is to utilize high-resolution (HR) (0.1° resolution in the ocean) coupled model runs of CCSM4 to analyze regional sea surface height (SSH) trends. Unlike typical, lower resolution (1.0°) GCM runs these HR runs resolve features in the ocean, like the Gulf Stream, which may have a large effect on regional sea level. We characterize the variability of regional SSH along the Atlantic coast of the US using tide gauge observations along with fixed radiative forcing runs of CCSM4 and HR interactive ensemble runs. The interactive ensemble couples an ensemble mean atmosphere with a single ocean realization. This coupling results in a 30% decrease in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; therefore, the HR interactive ensemble is analogous to a HR hosing experiment. By characterizing the variability in these high-resolution GCM runs and observations we seek to understand what processes influence coastal SSH along the Eastern Coast of the United States and better predict future SLR.

Intrapersonal positive future thinking predicts repeat suicide attempts in hospital-treated suicide attempters.

PubMed

O'Connor, Rory C; Smyth, Roger; Williams, J Mark G

2015-02-01

Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking-suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression-as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking-suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Intrapersonal Positive Future Thinking Predicts Repeat Suicide Attempts in Hospital-Treated Suicide Attempters

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objective: Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking–suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. Method: A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. Results: During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression—as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Discussion: Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking–suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. PMID:25181026

Mortality predictors in a 60-year follow-up of adolescent males: exploring delinquency, socioeconomic status, IQ, high-school drop-out status, and personality.

PubMed

Trumbetta, Susan L; Seltzer, Benjamin K; Gottesman, Irving I; McIntyre, Kathleen M

2010-01-01

To examine whether socioeconomic status (SES), high school (HS) completion, IQ, and personality traits that predict delinquency in adolescence also could explain men's delinquency-related (Dq-r) mortality risk across the life span. Through a 60-year Social Security Death Index (SSDI) follow-up of 1812 men from Hathaway's adolescent normative Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) sample, we examined mortality risk at various ages and at various levels of prior delinquency severity. We examined SES (using family rent level), HS completion, IQ, and MMPI indicators simultaneously as mortality predictors and tested for SES (rent level) interactions with IQ and personality. We ascertained 418 decedents. Dq-r mortality peaked between ages 45 years to 64 years and continued through age 75 years, with high delinquency severity showing earlier and higher mortality risk. IQ and rent level failed to explain Dq-r mortality. HS completion robustly conferred mortality protection through ages 55 years and 75 years, explained IQ and rent level-related risk, but did not fully explain Dq-r risk. Dq-r MMPI scales, Psychopathic Deviate, and Social Introversion, respectively, predicted risk for and protection from mortality by age 75 years, explaining mortality risk otherwise attributable to delinquency. Wiggins' scales also explained Dq-r mortality risk, as Authority Conflict conferred risk for and Social Maladjustment and Hypomania conferred protection from mortality by age 75 years. HS completion robustly predicts mortality by ages 55 years and 75 years. Dq-r personality traits predict mortality by age 75 years, accounting, in part, for Dq-r mortality.

Scattering of sound by atmospheric turbulence predictions in a refractive shadow zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcbride, Walton E.; Bass, Henry E.; Raspet, Richard; Gilbert, Kenneth E.

1990-01-01

According to ray theory, regions exist in an upward refracting atmosphere where no sound should be present. Experiments show, however, that appreciable sound levels penetrate these so-called shadow zones. Two mechanisms contribute to sound in the shadow zone: diffraction and turbulent scattering of sound. Diffractive effects can be pronounced at lower frequencies but are small at high frequencies. In the short wavelength limit, then, scattering due to turbulence should be the predominant mechanism involved in producing the sound levels measured in shadow zones. No existing analytical method includes turbulence effects in the prediction of sound pressure levels in upward refractive shadow zones. In order to obtain quantitative average sound pressure level predictions, a numerical simulation of the effect of atmospheric turbulence on sound propagation is performed. The simulation is based on scattering from randomly distributed scattering centers ('turbules'). Sound pressure levels are computed for many realizations of a turbulent atmosphere. Predictions from the numerical simulation are compared with existing theories and experimental data.

The utility of the Historical Clinical Risk-20 Scale as a predictor of outcomes in decisions to transfer patients from high to lower levels of security--a UK perspective.

PubMed

Dolan, Mairead; Blattner, Regine

2010-09-29

Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ) approaches to violence risk assessment are increasingly being adopted into clinical practice in international forensic settings. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Risk -20 (HCR-20) violence risk assessment scale for outcome following transfers from high to medium security in a United Kingdom setting. The sample was predominately male and mentally ill and the majority of cases were detained under the criminal section of the Mental Health Act (1986). The HCR-20 was rated based on detailed case file information on 72 cases transferred from high to medium security. Outcomes were examined, independent of risk score, and cases were classed as "success or failure" based on established criteria. The mean length of follow up was 6 years. The total HCR-20 score was a robust predictor of failure at lower levels of security and return to high security. The Clinical and Risk management items contributed most to predictive accuracy. Although the HCR-20 was designed as a violence risk prediction tool our findings suggest it has potential utility in decisions to transfer patients from high to lower levels of security.

The role of genetic polymorphisms in cytochrome P450 and effects of tuberculosis co-treatment on the predictive value of CYP2B6 SNPs and on efavirenz plasma levels in adult HIV patients.

PubMed

Bienvenu, Emile; Swart, Marelize; Dandara, Collet; Ashton, Michael

2014-02-01

Efavirenz (EFV) exhibits interindividual pharmacokinetic variability caused by differences in cytochrome P450 (CYP) expression. Most tuberculosis (TB) drugs interact with the CYP metabolizing enzymes, while the clinical validity of genotyping in predicting EFV plasma levels in Rwandan subjects is not known. We investigated in patients co-infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and TB recruited in Rwanda the effects of 10 SNPs in five drug-metabolizing enzymes on EFV plasma levels and treatment response when patients are treated with EFV-containing therapy alone (n=28) and when combined with rifampicin-based TB treatment (n=62), and the validity of genotyping for CYP2B6 single nucleotide polymorphisms in predicting supra-therapeutic EFV levels. There was a significant difference between CYP1A2 -739T/G and T/T genotypes when patients were treated with EFV-containing therapy combined with rifampicin-based TB treatment, but not when EFV-containing therapy was alone. CYP2B6 516T/T genotype was associated with high EFV levels compared to other CYP2B6 516G>T genotypes in the presence and in the absence of rifampicin-based TB treatment. Predictive factors of EFV plasma levels in the presence of rifampicin-based TB treatment were CYP2A6 1093G>A, CYP2B6 516G>T, and CYP2B6 983T>C accounting for 27%, 43%, and 29% of the total variance in EFV levels, respectively. There was a high positive predictive value (PPV) (100%) for CYP2B6 516T/T and 983T/T genotypes in predicting EFV plasma levels above the therapeutic range, but this PPV decreased in the presence of rifampicin-based TB treatment. Rifampicin-based TB treatment was also shown to affect EFV plasma levels significantly, but did not affect the significant reduction of HIV-RNA copies. These results indicate that genotyping for CYP2B6 SNPs could be used as a tool in predicting supra-therapeutic EFV plasma levels, which could minimize adverse drug events. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adolescent physical activity predicts high education and socio-economic position in adulthood.

PubMed

Koivusilta, Leena K; Nupponen, Heimo; Rimpelä, Arja H

2012-04-01

Based on the knowledge on beneficial effects of physical activity (PA) on health and fitness, we hypothesized that PA in adolescence is related to high education and socio-economic position (SEP) in adulthood. Improved school performance may mediate the hypothesized relationship. The Adolescent Health and Lifestyle Surveys (AHLS), collected biennially in 1981-89 (baseline) and representing 14- and 16-year-old Finns were individually linked with national registries of the highest educational level and SEP. Of the sample, 10 498 (78%) responded the surveys and were followed till the end of 2001 (age group of 28-38 years). Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to study the associations between the outcomes (highest attained educational level, SEP) and PA (sports clubs, spontaneous, intensity). Participating in sports club or spontaneous PA and practicing with high intensity in adolescence were associated with higher educational levels and SEP in adulthood. Childhood socio-economic background only slightly influenced the associations and largely, PA predicted the outcomes independently of background. Particularly among girls, school performance partly accounted for the associations between PA and the highest educational level and the highest SEP. Participation in PA in adolescence and particularly its high intensity, predicts higher educational levels and SEP in early middle age. School performance to some degree mediates the impact of PA. PA behaviours in adolescence-or possibilities to participate in PA-are a potential mechanism in generating better health of higher socio-economic and educational groups in adult age.

The relation of weight suppression and BMI to bulimic symptoms.

PubMed

Butryn, Meghan L; Juarascio, Adrienne; Lowe, Michael R

2011-11-01

High levels of weight suppression have been associated with greater binge eating and weight gain as well as poorer treatment outcome in bulimia nervosa. This study examined the relationship between weight suppression and bulimia nervosa symptoms and explored how weight suppression might interact with body mass index (BMI) in accounting for level of symptomatology at presentation for treatment. Participants were 64 women with threshold or sub-threshold bulimia nervosa. A clinical interview assessed binge eating and purging. Weight suppression and the interaction between BMI and weight suppression predicted frequency of binge eating such that participants with low BMI and high weight suppression engaged in the most binge eating. High levels of weight suppression also predicted more frequent purging. Additional research is warranted to examine mediators of these relationships. Copyright © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Effect of Parenting Style on Social Smiling in Infants at High and Low Risk for ASD.

PubMed

Harker, Colleen M; Ibañez, Lisa V; Nguyen, Thanh P; Messinger, Daniel S; Stone, Wendy L

2016-07-01

This study examined how parenting style at 9 months predicts growth in infant social engagement (i.e., social smiling) between 9 and 18 months during a free-play interaction in infants at high (HR-infants) and low (LR-infants) familial risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Results indicated that across all infants, higher levels of maternal responsiveness were concurrently associated with higher levels of social smiling, while higher levels of maternal directiveness predicted slower growth in social smiling. When accounting for maternal directiveness, which was higher in mothers of HR-infants, HR-infants exhibited greater growth in social smiling than LR-infants. Overall, each parenting style appears to make a unique contribution to the development of social engagement in infants at high- and low-risk for ASD.

Can current models of accommodation and vergence predict accommodative behavior in myopic children?

PubMed

Sreenivasan, Vidhyapriya; Irving, Elizabeth L; Bobier, William R

2014-08-01

Investigations into the progression of myopia in children have long considered the role of accommodation as a cause and solution. Myopic children show high levels of accommodative adaptation, coupled with accommodative lag and high response AC/A (accommodative convergence per diopter of accommodation). This pattern differs from that predicted by current models of interaction between accommodation and vergence, where weakened reflex responses and a high AC/A would be associated with a low not high levels of accommodative adaptation. However, studies of young myopes were limited to only part of the accommodative vergence synkinesis and the reciprocal components of vergence adaptation and convergence accommodation were not studied in tandem. Accordingly, we test the hypothesis that the accommodative behavior of myopic children is not predicted by current models and whether that departure is explained by differences in the accommodative plant of the myopic child. Responses to incongruent stimuli (-2D, +2D adds, 10 prism diopter base-out prism) were investigated in 28 myopic and 25 non-myopic children aged 7-15 years. Subjects were divided into phoria groups - exo, ortho and eso based upon their near phoria. The school aged myopes showed high levels of accommodative adaptation but with reduced accommodation and high AC/A. This pattern is not explained by current adult models and could reflect a sluggish gain of the accommodative plant (ciliary muscle and lens), changes in near triad innervation or both. Further, vergence adaptation showed a predictable reciprocal relationship with the high accommodative adaptation, suggesting that departures from adult models were limited to accommodation not vergence behavior. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of Global Self-Worth and Academic Performance among Regular Education, Learning Disabled, and Continuation High School Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiest, Dudley J.; Wong, Eugene H.; Kreil, Dennis A.

1998-01-01

The ability of measures of perceived competence, control, and autonomy support to predict self-worth and academic performance was studied across groups of high school students. Stepwise regression analyses indicate these variables in model predict self-worth and grade point average. In addition, levels of school status and depression predict…

Clinical value of serum anti-mullerian hormone and inhibin B in prediction of ovarian response in patients with polycystic ovary syndrome.

PubMed

Zhang, Fan; Liu, Xiao-Ling; Rong, Nan; Huang, Xiao-Wen

2017-02-01

The present study aimed to investigate the clinical value of serum anti-mullerian hormone (AMH) and inhibin B (INHB) in predicting the ovarian response of patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A total of 120 PCOS patients were enrolled and divided into three groups in terms of the ovarian response: a low-response group (n=36), a normal-response group (n=44), and a high-response group (n=40). The serum AMH and INHB levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), and estradiol (E2) levels were determined by chemiluminescence microparticle immunoassay. The correlation of the serum AMH and INHB levels with other indicators was analyzed. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was established to analyze the prediction of ovarian response by AMH and INHB. The results showed that there were significant differences in age, body mass index (BMI), FSH, total gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH), LH, E2, and antral follicle counts (AFCs) between the groups (P<0.05). The serum AMH and INHB levels were increased significantly with the ovarian response of PCOS patients increasing (P<0.05). The serum AMH and INHB levels were negatively correlated with the age, BMI, FSH level, Gn, and E2 levels (P<0.05). They were positively correlated with the LH levels and AFCs (P<0.05). ROC curve analysis of serum AMH and INHB in prediction of a low ovarian response showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) value of the serum AMH level was 0.817, with a cut-off value of 1.29 ng/mL. The sensitivity and specificity were 71.2% and 79.6%, respectively. The AUC value of serum INHB was 0.674, with a cut-off value of 38.65 ng/mL, and the sensitivity and specificity were 50.7% and 74.5%, respectively. ROC curve analysis showed when the serum AMH and INHB levels were used to predict a high ovarian response, the AUC value of the serum AMH level was 0.742, with a cut-off value of 2.84 ng/mL, and the sensitivity and specificity were 72.7% and 65.9%, respectively; the AUC value of the serum INHB level was 0.551 with a cut-off of 45.76 ng/mL, and the sensitivity and specificity were 76.3% and 40.2%, respectively. It was suggested the serum AMH and INHB levels have high clinical value in predicting the ovarian response of PCOS patients.

AIR Model Preflight Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tai, H.; Wilson, J. W.; Maiden, D. L.

2003-01-01

The atmospheric ionizing radiation (AIR) ER-2 preflight analysis, one of the first attempts to obtain a relatively complete measurement set of the high-altitude radiation level environment, is described in this paper. The primary thrust is to characterize the atmospheric radiation and to define dose levels at high-altitude flight. A secondary thrust is to develop and validate dosimetric techniques and monitoring devices for protecting aircrews. With a few chosen routes, we can measure the experimental results and validate the AIR model predictions. Eventually, as more measurements are made, we gain more understanding about the hazardous radiation environment and acquire more confidence in the prediction models.

Change in Maternal Criticism and Behavior Problems in Adolescents and Adults with Autism Across a Seven-Year Period

PubMed Central

Baker, Jason K.; Smith, Leann E.; Greenberg, Jan S.; Seltzer, Marsha Mailick; Taylor, Julie Lounds

2010-01-01

In a previous study from our laboratory, high levels of maternal criticism predicted increased behavior problems in adolescents and adults with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) over an 18-month period (Greenberg, Seltzer, Hong, & Orsmond, 2006). The current investigation followed these families over a period of seven years to examine the longitudinal course of criticism and behavior problems, to assess the association between their trajectories, and to determine the degree to which change in each of these factors predicted levels of criticism and behavior problems at the end of the study period. A sample of 118 mothers co-residing with their adolescents and adults with ASD provided open-ended narratives about their children and reported on the children's behavior problems at four waves. Maternal criticism was derived from expressed emotion ratings of the narratives. Criticism exhibited low but significant stability over the seven year period and behavior problems exhibited high stability. Using latent growth curve modeling, (a) criticism was found to have increased over time, but only for the group of families in which the sons or daughters transitioned from high school services during the study period, (b) individual changes in criticism and behavior problems were positively correlated over the seven-year period, and (c) changes in criticism predicted levels of behavior problems at the conclusion of the study. Changes in behavior problems were not predictive of end levels of criticism. Implications for intervention and prevention efforts are discussed. PMID:21319925

Origins of the high flux hohlraum model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosen, M. D.; Hinkel, D. E.; Williams, E. A.; Callahan, D. A.; Town, R. P. J.; Scott, H. A.; Kruer, W. L.; Suter, L. J.

2010-11-01

We review how the ``high flux model'' (HFM) helped clarify the performance of the Autumn 09 National Ignition Campaign (NIC) gas filled/capsule imploding hohlraum energetics campaign. This campaign showed good laser-hohlraum coupling, reasonably high drive, and implosion symmetry control via cross beam transfer. Mysteries that remained included the level and spectrum of the Stimulated Raman light, the tendency towards pancaked implosions, and drive that exceeded (standard model) predictions early in the campaign, and lagged those predictions late in the campaign. The HFM uses a detailed configuration accounting (DCA) atomic physics and a generous flux limiter (f=0.2) both of which contribute to predicting a hohlraum plasma that is cooler than the standard, XSN average atom, f=0.05 model. This cooler plasma proved to be key in solving all of those mysteries. Despite past successes of the HFM in correctly modeling Omega Laser Au sphere data and NIC empty hohlraum drive, the model lacked some credibility for this energetics campaign, because it predicted too much hohlraum drive. Its credibility was then boosted by a re-evaluation of the initially reported SRS levels.

Explaining and modeling the concentration and loading of Escherichia coli in a stream-A case study.

PubMed

Wang, Chaozi; Schneider, Rebecca L; Parlange, Jean-Yves; Dahlke, Helen E; Walter, M Todd

2018-09-01

Escherichia coli (E. coli) level in streams is a public health indicator. Therefore, being able to explain why E. coli levels are sometimes high and sometimes low is important. Using citizen science data from Fall Creek in central NY we found that complementarily using principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares (PLS) regression provided insights into the drivers of E. coli and a mechanism for predicting E. coli levels, respectively. We found that stormwater, temperature/season and shallow subsurface flow are the three dominant processes driving the fate and transport of E. coli. PLS regression modeling provided very good predictions under stormwater conditions (R 2  = 0.85 for log (E. coli concentration) and R 2  = 0.90 for log (E. coli loading)); predictions under baseflow conditions were less robust. But, in our case, both E. coli concentration and E. coli loading were significantly higher under stormwater condition, so it is probably more important to predict high-flow E. coli hazards than low-flow conditions. Besides previously reported good indicators of in-stream E. coli level, nitrate-/nitrite-nitrogen and soluble reactive phosphorus were also found to be good indicators of in-stream E. coli levels. These findings suggest management practices to reduce E. coli concentrations and loads in-streams and, eventually, reduce the risk of waterborne disease outbreak. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

HYPERGLYCOSYLATED HUMAN CHORIONIC GONADOTROPIN AS AN EARLY PREDICTOR OF PREGNANCY OUTCOMES AFTER IN VITRO FERTILIZATION

PubMed Central

Chuan, Sandy; Homer, Michael; Pandian, Raj; Conway, Deirdre; Garzo, Gabriel; Yeo, Lisa; Su, H. Irene

2014-01-01

Objective To determine if hyperglycosylated hCG (hhCG), produced by invasive trophoblasts, measured as early as 9 days after egg retrieval can predict ongoing pregnancies (OP) after in vitro fertilization and fresh embryo transfer (IVF-ET). Design Cohort Setting Academic ART center Patients Consecutive patients undergoing IVF-ET Interventions Serum hhCG and hCG levels measured 9 (D9) and 16 (D16) days after egg retrieval Outcome Ongoing pregnancy (OP) beyond 9 weeks of gestation Results OP (62 of 112 participants) was associated with higher D9 levels of hhCG and hCG However, hhCG was detectable in all D9 OP samples, while hCG was detectable in only 22%. D9 hhCG levels >110 pg/mL was 96% specific for OP, yielding a positive predictive value of 95%. Compared to D9 hCG levels, hhCG was more sensitive and had a larger area under the curve (0.87 vs. 0.67). Diagnostic test characteristics were similar between D16 hhCG and hCG levels. Conclusions In patients undergoing assisted reproduction, a test to detect pregnancy early and predict outcomes is highly desirable. HhCG is detectable in serum 9 days after egg retrieval IVF-ET cycles. At this early assessment, hhCG is superior to traditional hCG and highly predictive of ongoing pregnancies. PMID:24355054

Long-term cortisol measures predict Alzheimer disease risk.

PubMed

Ennis, Gilda E; An, Yang; Resnick, Susan M; Ferrucci, Luigi; O'Brien, Richard J; Moffat, Scott D

2017-01-24

To examine whether long-term measures of cortisol predict Alzheimer disease (AD) risk. We used a prospective longitudinal design to examine whether cortisol dysregulation was related to AD risk. Participants were from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA) and submitted multiple 24-hour urine samples over an average interval of 10.56 years. Urinary free cortisol (UFC) and creatinine (Cr) were measured, and a UFC/Cr ratio was calculated to standardize UFC. To measure cortisol regulation, we used within-person UFC/Cr level (i.e., within-person mean), change in UFC/Cr over time (i.e., within-person slope), and UFC/Cr variability (i.e., within-person coefficient of variation). Cox regression was used to assess whether UFC/Cr measures predicted AD risk. UFC/Cr level and UFC/Cr variability, but not UFC/Cr slope, were significant predictors of AD risk an average of 2.9 years before AD onset. Elevated UFC/Cr level and elevated UFC/Cr variability were related to a 1.31- and 1.38-times increase in AD risk, respectively. In a sensitivity analysis, increased UFC/Cr level and increased UFC/Cr variability predicted increased AD risk an average of 6 years before AD onset. Cortisol dysregulation as manifested by high UFC/Cr level and high UFC/Cr variability may modulate the downstream clinical expression of AD pathology or be a preclinical marker of AD. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Artificial intelligence models for predicting iron deficiency anemia and iron serum level based on accessible laboratory data.

PubMed

Azarkhish, Iman; Raoufy, Mohammad Reza; Gharibzadeh, Shahriar

2012-06-01

Iron deficiency anemia (IDA) is the most common nutritional deficiency worldwide. Measuring serum iron is time consuming, expensive and not available in most hospitals. In this study, based on four accessible laboratory data (MCV, MCH, MCHC, Hb/RBC), we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to diagnose the IDA and to predict serum iron level. Our results represent that the neural network analysis is superior to ANFIS and logistic regression models in diagnosing IDA. Moreover, the results show that the ANN is likely to provide an accurate test for predicting serum iron levels with high accuracy and acceptable precision.

Development of variable pathlength UV-vis spectroscopy combined with partial-least-squares regression for wastewater chemical oxygen demand (COD) monitoring.

PubMed

Chen, Baisheng; Wu, Huanan; Li, Sam Fong Yau

2014-03-01

To overcome the challenging task to select an appropriate pathlength for wastewater chemical oxygen demand (COD) monitoring with high accuracy by UV-vis spectroscopy in wastewater treatment process, a variable pathlength approach combined with partial-least squares regression (PLSR) was developed in this study. Two new strategies were proposed to extract relevant information of UV-vis spectral data from variable pathlength measurements. The first strategy was by data fusion with two data fusion levels: low-level data fusion (LLDF) and mid-level data fusion (MLDF). Predictive accuracy was found to improve, indicated by the lower root-mean-square errors of prediction (RMSEP) compared with those obtained for single pathlength measurements. Both fusion levels were found to deliver very robust PLSR models with residual predictive deviations (RPD) greater than 3 (i.e. 3.22 and 3.29, respectively). The second strategy involved calculating the slopes of absorbance against pathlength at each wavelength to generate slope-derived spectra. Without the requirement to select the optimal pathlength, the predictive accuracy (RMSEP) was improved by 20-43% as compared to single pathlength spectroscopy. Comparing to nine-factor models from fusion strategy, the PLSR model from slope-derived spectroscopy was found to be more parsimonious with only five factors and more robust with residual predictive deviation (RPD) of 3.72. It also offered excellent correlation of predicted and measured COD values with R(2) of 0.936. In sum, variable pathlength spectroscopy with the two proposed data analysis strategies proved to be successful in enhancing prediction performance of COD in wastewater and showed high potential to be applied in on-line water quality monitoring. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Persistently high psychological well-being predicts better HDL cholesterol and triglyceride levels: findings from the midlife in the U.S. (MIDUS) longitudinal study.

PubMed

Radler, Barry T; Rigotti, Attilio; Ryff, Carol D

2018-01-03

Psychological correlates of blood lipid levels have been previously evaluated mostly in cross sectional studies. However, prospectively measured psychological factors might also predict favorable blood lipid profiles, thereby indicating a healthy mind/body interplay that is associated with less disease, better health and longer lives. This paper examined whether longitudinal profiles of psychological well-being over 9-10 years are predictors of blood lipid profiles. Using the MIDUS (Midlife in the U.S.) biological subsample (n = 1054, aged 34 to 84, 55% female), cross-time trajectories of well-being were linked with three lipid outcomes (i.e., HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and LDL cholesterol), measured for the first time at the 2nd wave of the study. Most adults showed largely stable profiles of well-being, albeit at different levels. Some showed persistently high well-being over time, while others revealed persistently low or moderate well-being. After adjusting for the effect of demographics, health behaviors, medications, and insulin resistance, adults with persistently high levels of environmental mastery and self-acceptance-two components of psychological well-being-had significantly higher levels of HDL as well as significantly lower levels of triglycerides compared to adults with persistently low levels of well-being. Converging with prior findings, no association was found between well-being and LDL cholesterol. Over 9-10 years, persistently high levels of psychological well-being measures predicted high HDL cholesterol and low triglycerides. These findings add longitudinal evidence to the growing body of research showing that positive psychological factors are linked with better lipoprotein profiles. A better blood lipid profile, particularly higher HDL-C, may be key in mediating how psychological well-being positively impacts health and length of life. Additional research is required to further validate this hypothesis as well as to establish potential underlying mechanisms.

Counter-Stereotypes and Feminism Promote Leadership Aspirations in Highly Identified Women.

PubMed

Leicht, Carola; Gocłowska, Małgorzata A; Van Breen, Jolien A; de Lemus, Soledad; Randsley de Moura, Georgina

2017-01-01

Although women who highly identify with other women are more susceptible to stereotype threat effects, women's identification might associate with greater leadership aspirations contingent on (1) counter-stereotype salience and (2) feminist identification. When gender counter-stereotypes are salient, women's identification should associate with greater leadership aspiration regardless of feminism, while when gender stereotypes are salient, women's identification would predict greater leadership aspirations contingent on a high level of feminist identification. In our study US-based women ( N = 208) attended to gender stereotypic (vs. counter-stereotypic) content. We measured identification with women and identification with feminism, and, following the manipulation, leadership aspirations in an imagined work scenario. The interaction between identification with women, identification with feminism, and attention to stereotypes (vs. counter-stereotypes) significantly predicted leadership aspirations. In the counter-stereotypic condition women's identification associated with greater leadership aspirations regardless of feminist identification. In the stereotypic condition women's identification predicted leadership aspirations only at high levels of feminist identification. We conclude that salient counter-stereotypes and a strong identification with feminism may help high women identifiers increase their leadership aspirations.

Counter-Stereotypes and Feminism Promote Leadership Aspirations in Highly Identified Women

PubMed Central

Leicht, Carola; Gocłowska, Małgorzata A.; Van Breen, Jolien A.; de Lemus, Soledad; Randsley de Moura, Georgina

2017-01-01

Although women who highly identify with other women are more susceptible to stereotype threat effects, women's identification might associate with greater leadership aspirations contingent on (1) counter-stereotype salience and (2) feminist identification. When gender counter-stereotypes are salient, women's identification should associate with greater leadership aspiration regardless of feminism, while when gender stereotypes are salient, women's identification would predict greater leadership aspirations contingent on a high level of feminist identification. In our study US-based women (N = 208) attended to gender stereotypic (vs. counter-stereotypic) content. We measured identification with women and identification with feminism, and, following the manipulation, leadership aspirations in an imagined work scenario. The interaction between identification with women, identification with feminism, and attention to stereotypes (vs. counter-stereotypes) significantly predicted leadership aspirations. In the counter-stereotypic condition women's identification associated with greater leadership aspirations regardless of feminist identification. In the stereotypic condition women's identification predicted leadership aspirations only at high levels of feminist identification. We conclude that salient counter-stereotypes and a strong identification with feminism may help high women identifiers increase their leadership aspirations. PMID:28626437

Multilevel landscape utilization of the Siberian flying squirrel: Scale effects on species habitat use.

PubMed

Remm, Jaanus; Hanski, Ilpo K; Tuominen, Sakari; Selonen, Vesa

2017-10-01

Animals use and select habitat at multiple hierarchical levels and at different spatial scales within each level. Still, there is little knowledge on the scale effects at different spatial levels of species occupancy patterns. The objective of this study was to examine nonlinear effects and optimal-scale landscape characteristics that affect occupancy of the Siberian flying squirrel, Pteromys volans , in South- and Mid-Finland. We used presence-absence data ( n  = 10,032 plots of 9 ha) and novel approach to separate the effects on site-, landscape-, and regional-level occupancy patterns. Our main results were: landscape variables predicted the placement of population patches at least twice as well as they predicted the occupancy of particular sites; the clear optimal value of preferred habitat cover for species landscape-level abundance is a surprisingly low value (10% within a 4 km buffer); landscape metrics exert different effects on species occupancy and abundance in high versus low population density regions of our study area. We conclude that knowledge of regional variation in landscape utilization will be essential for successful conservation of the species. The results also support the view that large-scale landscape variables have high predictive power in explaining species abundance. Our study demonstrates the complex response of species occurrence at different levels of population configuration on landscape structure. The study also highlights the need for data in large spatial scale to increase the precision of biodiversity mapping and prediction of future trends.

Sea level forecasts using neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röske, Frank

1997-03-01

In this paper, a new method for predicting the sea level employing a neural network approach is introduced. It was designed to improve the prediction of the sea level along the German North Sea Coast under standard conditions. The sea level at any given time depends upon the tides as well as meteorological and oceanographic factors, such as the winds and external surges induced by air pressure. Since tidal predictions are already sufficiently accurate, they have been subtracted from the observed sea levels. The differences will be predicted up to 18 hours in advance. In this paper, the differences are called anomalies. The prediction of the sea level each hour is distinguished from its predictions at the times of high and low tide. For this study, Cuxhaven was selected as a reference site. The predictions made using neural networks were compared for accuracy with the prognoses prepared using six models: two hydrodynamic models, a statistical model, a nearest neighbor model, which is based on analogies, the persistence model, and the verbal forecasts that are broadcast and kept on record by the Sea Level Forecast Service of the Federal Maritime and Hydrography Agency (BSH) in Hamburg. Predictions were calculated for the year 1993 and compared with the actual levels measured. Artificial neural networks are capable of learning. By applying them to the prediction of sea levels, learning from past events has been attempted. It was also attempted to make the experiences of expert forecasters objective. Instead of using the wide-spread back-propagation networks, the self-organizing feature map of Kohonen, or “Kohonen network”, was applied. The fundamental principle of this network is the transformation of the signal similarity into the neighborhood of the neurons while preserving the topology of the signal space. The self-organization procedure of Kohonen networks can be visualized. To make predictions, these networks have been subdivided into a part describing the past state and another part describing the prediction. Both parts have been chosen according to methods of auto- and multiregression. A Kohonen network that has finished learning can be interpreted to be an adaptive table of such descriptions. To avoid overloading the Kohonen networks, the time series, made as complete as possible, were reduced to a learnable data set by means of two selection methods. The minimal distance method as a part of the cluster analysis was used, which selects representative temporal patterns. A novel method called circular group reduction was developed, which selects extreme patterns. This method is used as a supplement to the first one. To help the Kohonen network maintain its memory, the number of neurons and the maximum learning time were chosen according to the number of learning samples. To improve convergence, a combination of criteria was developed to break off learning, which could shown to be conform with the self-organization procedure. Kohonen networks were also applied in an autoregressive manner for the prediction of meteorological variables, especially wind. However, the quality of these predictions was inferior to those of the Marine Weather Service (SWA) in Hamburg, which is part of the German Weather Service (DWD) in Offenbach. High and low tide anomalies were predicted using Kohonen networks for multiregressions. The verbal predictions of high tide anomalies of the BSH Sea Level Forecasting Service were the most precise of all six comparison models. By using the Kohonen networks, it was even possible to improve these predictions and reduce their average error by 1 cm, from 15 to 14 cm.The precision of the Kohonen networks improved as their number of neurons increased and as their weight vectors became smaller. Since there were no major changes in the statistical properties of measurements made over mediumrange time scales, such networks that have completed learning were placed at the Sea Level Forecast Service. However, over the long term, there can be changes in these properties due to climate changes and deepening of the Elbe River. Therefore, the training process of the networks should be repeated periodically taking longer time series into consideration.

Predictive value of high sensitivity CRP in patients with diastolic heart failure.

PubMed

Michowitz, Yoav; Arbel, Yaron; Wexler, Dov; Sheps, David; Rogowski, Ori; Shapira, Itzhak; Berliner, Shlomo; Keren, Gad; George, Jacob; Roth, Arie

2008-04-25

C-reactive protein (CRP) has been tested in patients with systolic heart failure (HF) and mixed results have been obtained with regards to its potential predictive value. However, the role of C-reactive protein (CRP) in patients with diastolic HF is not established. We studied the predictive role of high sensitivity CRP (hsCRP) in patients with diastolic HF. HsCRP levels were measured in a cohort of CHF outpatients, 77 patients with diastolic HF and 217 patients with systolic HF. Concentrations were compared to a large cohort of healthy population (n=7701) and associated with the HF admissions and mortality of the patients. Levels of hsCRP did not differ between patients with systolic and diastolic HF and were significantly elevated compared to the cohort of healthy subjects even after adjustment to various clinical parameters (p<0.0001). In patients with diastolic HF, hsCRP levels associated with New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA-FC) (r=0.31 p=0.01). On univariate Cox regression model hsCRP levels independently predicted hospitalizations in patients with systolic but not diastolic HF (p=0.047). HsCRP concentrations are elevated in patients with diastolic HF and correlate with disease severity; their prognostic value in this patient population should be further investigated.

In a year, memory will benefit from learning, tomorrow it won't: distance and construal level effects on the basis of metamemory judgments.

PubMed

Halamish, Vered; Nussinson, Ravit; Ben-Ari, Liat

2013-09-01

Metamemory judgments may rely on 2 bases of information: subjective experience and abstract theories about memory. On the basis of construal level theory, we predicted that psychological distance and construal level (i.e., concrete vs. abstract thinking) would have a qualitative impact on the relative reliance on these 2 bases: When considering learning from proximity or under a low-construal mindset, learners would rely more heavily on their experience, whereas when considering learning from a distance or under a high-construal mindset, they would rely more heavily on their abstract theories. Consistent with this prediction, results of 2 experiments revealed that temporal distance (Experiment 1) and construal level (Experiment 2) affected the stability bias--the failure to predict the benefits of learning. When considering learning from proximity or using a low-construal mindset, participants relied less heavily on their theory regarding the benefits of learning and were therefore insensitive to future learning. However, when considering learning from temporal distance or using a high-construal mindset, participants relied more heavily on their theory and were therefore better able to predict the benefits of future learning, thus overcoming the stability bias. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Prospectively Predicting Dietary Restraint: The Role of Interpersonal Self-Efficacy, Weight/Shape Self-Efficacy, and Interpersonal Stress

PubMed Central

Cain, A.S.; Bardone-Cone, A.M.; Abramson, L.Y.; Vohs, K.D.; Joiner, T.E.

2009-01-01

Objective This study investigated how the precursors of interpersonal self-efficacy and weight/shape self-efficacy would interact in the face of interpersonal stress to prospectively predict dietary restraint. Three models were explored, each with a different type of interpersonal stress: stress from same sex friendships, opposite sex friendships, or romantic relationships. Method At Time 1 (T1), participants (N = 406) reported on their typical levels of interpersonal self-efficacy and weight/shape self-efficacy, and recent (past 28 days) dietary restraint. At Time 2 (T2), 11 weeks after T1, participants reported on their recent (past 28 days) levels of dietary restraint at that time. Between T1 and T2, participants completed inventories weekly on the previous week’s interpersonal stressors. Results Consistent with prediction, low interpersonal self-efficacy and high weight/shape self-efficacy combined with high interpersonal stress (whether from same sex friendships, opposite sex friendships, or romantic relationships) to predict the highest levels of T2 dietary restraint after controlling for T1 levels. Conclusion These results further link the interpersonal domain with dietary restraint and elucidate characteristics of women particularly apt to increase dietary restraint in response to interpersonal stress. PMID:19718670

Does affective organizational commitment and experience of meaning at work predict risk of disability pensioning? An analysis of register-based outcomes using pooled data on 40,554 observations in four occupational groups.

PubMed

Clausen, Thomas; Burr, Hermann; Borg, Vilhelm

2014-06-01

The aim of this study is to investigate whether experience of meaning at work (MAW) and affective organizational commitment (AOC) predict risk of disability pensioning in four occupational groups. Survey data from 40,554 individuals were fitted to a national register (DREAM) containing information on payments of disability pension. Using multi-adjusted Cox-regression, observations were followed in the DREAM-register to assess risk of disability pensioning. Low levels of MAW significantly increased risk of disability pensioning during follow-up referencing high levels of MAW. Respondents with medium levels of AOC had a significantly reduced risk of disability pensioning, when compared to respondents with high levels of AOC. Furthermore, results indicate an interaction effect between AOC and MAW in predicting risk of disability pension. AOC and MAW are significantly associated with risk of disability pensioning. Promoting MAW and managing AOC in contemporary workplaces may contribute towards reducing risk of disability pensioning. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Predictive Value of IL-8 for Sepsis and Severe Infections after Burn Injury - A Clinical Study

PubMed Central

Kraft, Robert; Herndon, David N; Finnerty, Celeste C; Cox, Robert A; Song, Juquan; Jeschke, Marc G

2014-01-01

The inflammatory response induced by burn injury contributes to increased incidence of infections, sepsis, organ failure, and mortality. Thus, monitoring post-burn inflammation is of paramount importance but so far there are no reliable biomarkers available to monitor and/or predict infectious complications after burn. As IL-8 is a major mediator for inflammatory responses, the aim of our study was to determine whether IL-8 expression can be used to predict post-burn sepsis, infections, and mortality other outcomes post-burn. Plasma cytokines, acute phase proteins, constitutive proteins, and hormones were analyzed during the first 60 days post injury from 468 pediatric burn patients. Demographics and clinical outcome variables (length of stay, infection, sepsis, multiorgan failure (MOF), and mortality were recorded. A cut-off level for IL-8 was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Statistical significance is set at (p<0.05). ROC analysis identified a cut-off level of 234 pg/ml for IL-8 for survival. Patients were grouped according to their average IL-8 levels relative to this cut off and stratified into high (H) (n=133) and low (L) (n=335) groups. In the L group, regression analysis revealed a significant predictive value of IL-8 to percent of total body surface area (TBSA) burned and incidence of MOF (p<0.001). In the H group IL-8 levels were able to predict sepsis (p<0.002). In the H group, elevated IL-8 was associated with increased inflammatory and acute phase responses compared to the L group (p<0.05). High levels of IL-8 correlated with increased MOF, sepsis, and mortality. These data suggest that serum levels of IL-8 may be a valid biomarker for monitoring sepsis, infections, and mortality in burn patients. PMID:25514427

Social Ecology of Child Soldiers: Child, Family, and Community Determinants of Mental Health, Psychosocial Wellbeing, and Reintegration in Nepal

PubMed Central

Kohrt, Brandon A.; Jordans, Mark J.D.; Tol, Wietse A.; Perera, Em; Karki, Rohit; Koirala, Suraj; Upadhaya, Nawaraj

2013-01-01

This study employs social ecology to evaluate psychosocial wellbeing in a cross-sectional sample of 142 former child soldiers in Nepal. Outcome measures included the Depression Self Rating Scale (DSRS), Child Posttraumatic Stress Scale (CPSS), and locally developed measures of function impairment and reintegration. At the child level, traumatic exposures, especially torture, predicted poor outcomes, while education improved outcomes. At the family level, conflict-related death of a relative, physical abuse in the household, and loss of wealth during the conflict predicted poor outcomes. At the community level, living in high caste Hindu communities predicted fewer reintegration supports. Ultimately, social ecology is well-suited to identify intervention foci across ecological levels, based on community differences in vulnerability and protective factors. PMID:21088102

Streamlining the Evaluation of Low Back Pain in Children

PubMed Central

Auerbach, Joshua D.; Ahn, Jaimo; Zgonis, Miltiadis H.; Reddy, Sudheer C.; Ecker, Malcolm L.

2008-01-01

The workup of low back pain in children often results in overimaging so as not to miss organic back pain. The primary goal of this study was to identify which combination of imaging modalities provides the most sensitive and specific screening protocol for children with low back pain. Medical records from 100 consecutive patients between 2 and 18 years of age presenting with low back pain, without night pain or constitutional symptoms, were evaluated. A hyperextension test combined with a radiograph showed a negative predictive value of 0.81 and sensitivity of 0.90. The addition of a bone scan was highly effective in achieving good negative predictive value and sensitivity. Bone scans had perfect negative predictive value and sensitivity when symptom duration was less than 6 weeks. We identified a set of factors that is highly predictive for distinguishing organic back pain from mechanical back pain. Painless hyperextension combined with negative anteroposterior, lateral, and oblique lumbar radiographs and magnetic resonance images predicts mechanical back pain. For patients with nonneurologic back pain of less than 6 weeks duration, bone scan is the most useful screening test because it is accurate, accessible, inexpensive, and unlikely to require sedation. Level of Evidence: Level III, diagnostic study. See the Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. PMID:18553213

Effects of high CO2 levels on dynamic photosynthesis: carbon gain, mechanisms, and environmental interactions.

PubMed

Tomimatsu, Hajime; Tang, Yanhong

2016-05-01

Understanding the photosynthetic responses of terrestrial plants to environments with high levels of CO2 is essential to address the ecological effects of elevated atmospheric CO2. Most photosynthetic models used for global carbon issues are based on steady-state photosynthesis, whereby photosynthesis is measured under constant environmental conditions; however, terrestrial plant photosynthesis under natural conditions is highly dynamic, and photosynthetic rates change in response to rapid changes in environmental factors. To predict future contributions of photosynthesis to the global carbon cycle, it is necessary to understand the dynamic nature of photosynthesis in relation to high CO2 levels. In this review, we summarize the current body of knowledge on the photosynthetic response to changes in light intensity under experimentally elevated CO2 conditions. We found that short-term exposure to high CO2 enhances photosynthetic rate, reduces photosynthetic induction time, and reduces post-illumination CO2 burst, resulting in increased leaf carbon gain during dynamic photosynthesis. However, long-term exposure to high CO2 during plant growth has varying effects on dynamic photosynthesis. High levels of CO2 increase the carbon gain in photosynthetic induction in some species, but have no significant effects in other species. Some studies have shown that high CO2 levels reduce the biochemical limitation on RuBP regeneration and Rubisco activation during photosynthetic induction, whereas the effects of high levels of CO2 on stomatal conductance differ among species. Few studies have examined the influence of environmental factors on effects of high levels of CO2 on dynamic photosynthesis. We identified several knowledge gaps that should be addressed to aid future predictions of photosynthesis in high-CO2 environments.

Parental attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder predicts child and parent outcomes of parental friendship coaching treatment.

PubMed

Griggs, Marissa Swaim; Mikami, Amori Yee

2011-12-01

This study investigated the impact of parental attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms on the peer relationships and parent-child interaction outcomes of children with ADHD among families completing a randomized controlled trial of parental friendship coaching (PFC) relative to control families. Participants were 62 children with ADHD (42 boys and 20 girls, 6 through 10 years old) and their parents. Approximately half of the families received PFC (a 3-month parent training intervention targeting the peer relationships of children with ADHD), and the remainder represented a no-treatment control group. Parental inattention predicted equivalent declines in children's peer acceptance in both treatment and control families. However, treatment amplified differences between parents with high versus low ADHD symptoms for some outcomes: Control families declined in functioning regardless of parents' symptom levels. However, high parental inattention predicted increased child peer rejection and high parental inattention and impulsivity predicted decreased parental facilitation among treated families (indicating reduced treatment response). Low parental symptoms among treated families were associated with improved functioning in these areas. For other outcomes, treatment attenuated differences between parents with high versus low ADHD symptoms: Among control parents, high parental impulsivity was associated with increasing criticism over time, whereas all treated parents showed reduced criticism regardless of symptom levels. Follow-up analyses indicated that the parents experiencing poor treatment response are likely those with clinical levels of ADHD symptoms. Results underscore the need to consider parental ADHD in parent training treatments for children with ADHD. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting arsenic concentrations in groundwater of San Luis Valley, Colorado: implications for individual-level lifetime exposure assessment.

PubMed

James, Katherine A; Meliker, Jaymie R; Buttenfield, Barbara E; Byers, Tim; Zerbe, Gary O; Hokanson, John E; Marshall, Julie A

2014-08-01

Consumption of inorganic arsenic in drinking water at high levels has been associated with chronic diseases. Risk is less clear at lower levels of arsenic, in part due to difficulties in estimating exposure. Herein we characterize spatial and temporal variability of arsenic concentrations and develop models for predicting aquifer arsenic concentrations in the San Luis Valley, Colorado, an area of moderately elevated arsenic in groundwater. This study included historical water samples with total arsenic concentrations from 595 unique well locations. A longitudinal analysis established temporal stability in arsenic levels in individual wells. The mean arsenic levels for a random sample of 535 wells were incorporated into five kriging models to predict groundwater arsenic concentrations at any point in time. A separate validation dataset (n = 60 wells) was used to identify the model with strongest predictability. Findings indicate that arsenic concentrations are temporally stable (r = 0.88; 95 % CI 0.83-0.92 for samples collected from the same well 15-25 years apart) and the spatial model created using ordinary kriging best predicted arsenic concentrations (ρ = 0.72 between predicted and observed validation data). These findings illustrate the value of geostatistical modeling of arsenic and suggest the San Luis Valley is a good region for conducting epidemiologic studies of groundwater metals because of the ability to accurately predict variation in groundwater arsenic concentrations.

Pretreatment 14-3-3 epsilon level is predictive for advanced extranodal NK/T cell lymphoma therapeutic response to asparaginase-based chemotherapy.

PubMed

Qiu, Yajuan; Zhou, Zhiyuan; Li, Zhaoming; Lu, Lisha; Li, Ling; Li, Xin; Wang, Xinhua; Zhang, Mingzhi

2017-03-01

The aim of the present study was to identify the potential relevant biomarkers to predict the therapeutic response of advanced extranodal natural killer/T cell lymphoma(ENKTL) treated with asparaginase-based treatment. Proteomic technology is used to identify differentially expressed proteins between chemotherapy-resistant and chemotherapy-sensitive patients. Then enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay is used to validate the predictive value of selective biomarkers. A total of 61 upregulated and 22 downregulated proteins are identified in chemotherapy-resistant patients compared with chemotherapy-sensitive patients. Furthermore, they validated that pretreatment high level 14-3-3 epsilon(ε)(≥61.95 ng/mL, 84.0 and 95.2% for sensitivity and specificity, respectively) is associated with poor 2-year overall survival (OS) (5.3 vs 68.8%, p<0.0001) and PFS (4.5 vs 76.9%, p<0.0001). In multivariate survival analysis, pretreatment high level 14-3-3 epsilon significantly is correlated with both inferior OS (p = 0.033) and PFS (p = 0.005). These findings indicate that pretreatment high level 14-3-3 epsilon is an independent predictor of chemotherapy-resistance and poor prognosis for patients with advanced ENKTL in the era of asparaginase. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

NRfamPred: a proteome-scale two level method for prediction of nuclear receptor proteins and their sub-families.

PubMed

Kumar, Ravindra; Kumari, Bandana; Srivastava, Abhishikha; Kumar, Manish

2014-10-29

Nuclear receptor proteins (NRP) are transcription factor that regulate many vital cellular processes in animal cells. NRPs form a super-family of phylogenetically related proteins and divided into different sub-families on the basis of ligand characteristics and their functions. In the post-genomic era, when new proteins are being added to the database in a high-throughput mode, it becomes imperative to identify new NRPs using information from amino acid sequence alone. In this study we report a SVM based two level prediction systems, NRfamPred, using dipeptide composition of proteins as input. At the 1st level, NRfamPred screens whether the query protein is NRP or non-NRP; if the query protein belongs to NRP class, prediction moves to 2nd level and predicts the sub-family. Using leave-one-out cross-validation, we were able to achieve an overall accuracy of 97.88% at the 1st level and an overall accuracy of 98.11% at the 2nd level with dipeptide composition. Benchmarking on independent datasets showed that NRfamPred had comparable accuracy to other existing methods, developed on the same dataset. Our method predicted the existence of 76 NRPs in the human proteome, out of which 14 are novel NRPs. NRfamPred also predicted the sub-families of these 14 NRPs.

High serum testosterone levels during postpartum period are associated with postpartum depression.

PubMed

Aswathi, A; Rajendiren, Soundravally; Nimesh, Archana; Philip, R Ravi; Kattimani, Shivanand; Jayalakshmi, D; Ananthanarayanan, P H; Dhiman, Pooja

2015-10-01

In view of the reported cases of mood disorders that occur in mothers following childbirth and believing that sex steroid hormones contribute to mood and behavioral changes, this study has been aimed to explore the role of sex steroid hormones as an etiological factor for postpartum depression (PPD). This study was conducted at JIPMER, Puducherry, India between January 2010 and 2011. 103 women were recruited in the study after childbirth, out of which 62 women who were believed to be suffering from PPD were categorized as cases and the remaining 41 with no mood changes as controls, using Edinburgh Postpartum Depression Scale (EPDS) (cases had EPDS score ≥10 at 24-28h, controls had score <10 at 24-48h postpartum). The hormones estimated in these two groups included estradiol, progesterone and testosterone, and their levels were compared between these two groups. A significantly high testosterone levels were observed in cases with PPD at 24-28h when compared to controls. Estradiol and progesterone levels did not show significant difference between cases and controls. ROC analysis done at 24-28h showed that testosterone levels beyond 42.71ng/mL predict the development of PPD with 79% sensitivity, 63% specificity, 68% positive predictive value, 74% negative predictive value with AUC being 0.708. This study shows that there is an association between persistent high serum testosterone level in women following childbirth and PPD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Melatonin levels in follicular fluid as markers for IVF outcomes and predicting ovarian reserve.

PubMed

Tong, Jing; Sheng, Shile; Sun, Yun; Li, Huihui; Li, Wei-Ping; Zhang, Cong; Chen, Zi-Jiang

2017-04-01

Good-quality oocytes are critical for the success of in vitro fertilization (IVF), but, to date, there is no marker of ovarian reserve available that can accurately predict oocyte quality. Melatonin exerts its antioxidant actions as a strong radical scavenger that might affect oocyte quality directly as it is the most potent antioxidant in follicular fluid. To investigate the precise role of endogenous melatonin in IVF outcomes, we recruited 61 women undergoing treatment cycles of IVF or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) procedures and classified them into three groups according to their response to ovarian stimulation. Follicular fluid was collected to assess melatonin levels using a direct RIA method. We found good correlations between melatonin levels in follicular fluid with age, anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and baseline follicle-stimulating hormone (bFSH), all of which have been used to predict ovarian reserve. Furthermore, as melatonin levels correlated to IVF outcomes, higher numbers of oocytes were collected from patients with higher melatonin levels and consequently the number of oocytes fertilized, zygotes cleaved, top quality embryos on D3, blastocysts obtained and embryos suitable for transplantation was higher. The blastocyst rate increased in concert with the melatonin levels across the gradient between the poor response group and the high response group. These results demonstrated that the melatonin levels in follicular fluid is associated with both the quantity and quality of oocytes and can predict IVF outcomes as well making them highly relevant biochemical markers of ovarian reserve. © 2017 Society for Reproduction and Fertility.

Differences in the fatty-acid composition of rodent spermatozoa are associated to levels of sperm competition

PubMed Central

delBarco-Trillo, Javier; Mateo, Rafael; Roldan, Eduardo R. S.

2015-01-01

Sperm competition is a prevalent phenomenon that drives the evolution of sperm function. High levels of sperm competition lead to increased metabolism to fuel higher sperm velocities. This enhanced metabolism can result in oxidative damage (including lipid peroxidation) and damage to the membrane. We hypothesized that in those species experiencing high levels of sperm competition there are changes in the fatty-acid composition of the sperm membrane that makes the membrane more resistant to oxidative damage. Given that polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) are the most prone to lipid peroxidation, we predicted that higher sperm competition leads to a reduction in the proportion of sperm PUFAs. In contrast, we predicted that levels of sperm competition should not affect the proportion of PUFAs in somatic cells. To test these predictions, we quantified the fatty-acid composition of sperm, testis and liver cells in four mouse species (genus Mus) that differ in their levels of sperm competition. Fatty-acid composition in testis and liver cells was not associated to sperm competition levels. However, in sperm cells, as predicted, an increase in sperm competition levels was associated with an increase in the proportion of saturated fatty-acids (the most resistant to lipid peroxidation) and by a concomitant decrease in the proportion of PUFAs. Two particular fatty acids were most responsible for this pattern (arachidonic acid and palmitic acid). Our findings thus indicate that sperm competition has a pervasive influence in the composition of sperm cells that ultimately may have important effects in sperm function. PMID:25795911

[Role of parathyroid hormone measurement in prediction for symptomatic hypocalcaemia after total thyroidectomy].

PubMed

An, Chang-ming; Tang, Ping-zhang; Xu, Zhen-gang; Zhang, Bin; Zhang, Zong-min; Yan, Dan-gui; Li, Zheng-jiang

2010-03-01

To evaluate the role of parathyroid hormone (PTH) and serum calcium in prediction for hypocalcaemia after total thyroidectomy. One hundred and sixty-five patients undergoing total or complete total thyroidectomy were reviewed retrospectively. The indications included bilateral carcinoma, undifferential carcinoma, surroundings invasion, distant metastasis and huge benign lesions. Preoperative and postoperative PTH, calcium concentrations and their decline levels were compared between Jan. 2005 and May 2009. The role of PTH value and decline level predicting for symptomatic hypocalcaemia were analyzed by receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curve. After total thyroidectomy, 85 patients (51.5%) developed hypocalcemia. Symptoms were reported by 36 patients (21.8%). The mean concentration of PTH for normocalcaemia (80 cases), asymptomatic hypocalcaemia (49 cases) and symptomatic patients (36 cases) were 31.0 ng/L, 19.6 ng/L and 11.9 ng/L, respectively. The mean decline level for the three groups were 28.6%, 52.6% and 78.0%, respectively. PTH value and its decline level had a poor predicting value for symptomatic hypocalcaemia and high negative predicting value for asymptomatic patients. The serum calcium concentration more than 2.0 mmol/L, PTH level higher than 15 ng/L and PTH decline less than 50% had the good negative predicting value of 97.6%, 90.3% and 96.5%, respectively. Postoperative PTH and its decline level were significantly correlated with postoperative serum calcium concentration but had a low accuracy for predicting symptomatic hypocalcaemia. The serum calcium concentration more than 2.0 mmol/L, PTH level higher than 15 ng/L and PTH decline less than 50% had the good predicting value for asymptomatic patients. Calcium should be routinely supplemented in the first 24 h after total thyroidectomy to reduce the rate of hypocalcemia and the severity of hypocalcemia symptoms.

Comparison of CATs, CURB-65 and PMEWS as triage tools in pandemic influenza admissions to UK hospitals: case control analysis using retrospective data.

PubMed

Myles, Puja R; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S; Lim, Wei Shen; Nicholson, Karl G; Brett, Stephen J; Enstone, Joanne E; McMenamin, James; Openshaw, Peter J M; Read, Robert C; Taylor, Bruce L; Bannister, Barbara; Semple, Malcolm G

2012-01-01

Triage tools have an important role in pandemics to identify those most likely to benefit from higher levels of care. We compared Community Assessment Tools (CATs), the CURB-65 score, and the Pandemic Medical Early Warning Score (PMEWS); to predict higher levels of care (high dependency--Level 2 or intensive care--Level 3) and/or death in patients at or shortly after admission to hospital with A/H1N1 2009 pandemic influenza. This was a case-control analysis using retrospectively collected data from the FLU-CIN cohort (1040 adults, 480 children) with PCR-confirmed A/H1N1 2009 influenza. Area under receiver operator curves (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values and negative predictive values were calculated. CATs best predicted Level 2/3 admissions in both adults [AUROC (95% CI): CATs 0.77 (0.73, 0.80); CURB-65 0.68 (0.64, 0.72); PMEWS 0.68 (0.64, 0.73), p<0.001] and children [AUROC: CATs 0.74 (0.68, 0.80); CURB-65 0.52 (0.46, 0.59); PMEWS 0.69 (0.62, 0.75), p<0.001]. CURB-65 and CATs were similar in predicting death in adults with both performing better than PMEWS; and CATs best predicted death in children. CATs were the best predictor of Level 2/3 care and/or death for both adults and children. CATs are potentially useful triage tools for predicting need for higher levels of care and/or mortality in patients of all ages.

Evaluation of a black-footed ferret resource utilization function model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eads, D.A.; Millspaugh, J.J.; Biggins, D.E.; Jachowski, D.S.; Livieri, T.M.

2011-01-01

Resource utilization function (RUF) models permit evaluation of potential habitat for endangered species; ideally such models should be evaluated before use in management decision-making. We evaluated the predictive capabilities of a previously developed black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes) RUF. Using the population-level RUF, generated from ferret observations at an adjacent yet distinct colony, we predicted the distribution of ferrets within a black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colony in the Conata Basin, South Dakota, USA. We evaluated model performance, using data collected during post-breeding spotlight surveys (2007-2008) by assessing model agreement via weighted compositional analysis and count-metrics. Compositional analysis of home range use and colony-level availability, and core area use and home range availability, demonstrated ferret selection of the predicted Very high and High occurrence categories in 2007 and 2008. Simple count-metrics corroborated these findings and suggested selection of the Very high category in 2007 and the Very high and High categories in 2008. Collectively, these results suggested that the RUF was useful in predicting occurrence and intensity of space use of ferrets at our study site, the 2 objectives of the RUF. Application of this validated RUF would increase the resolution of habitat evaluations, permitting prediction of the distribution of ferrets within distinct colonies. Additional model evaluation at other sites, on other black-tailed prairie dog colonies of varying resource configuration and size, would increase understanding of influences upon model performance and the general utility of the RUF. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

You may worry, but can you recognize threats when you see them?; Neuroticism, threat identifications, and negative affect.

PubMed

Tamir, Maya; Robinson, Michael D; Solberg, Emily Crawford

2006-10-01

The present studies sought to investigate the hedonic consequences of threat-identification skills at low and high levels of neuroticism. Such skills were assessed in terms of both speed (Study 1) and accuracy (Study 2) of identifying threatening objects in cognitive tasks. As predicted, threat-identification skills interacted with trait neuroticism in predicting subjective experiences. Specifically, individuals high in neuroticism experienced lower levels of negative affect during their everyday lives if they were also skilled in identifying threats in the cognitive tasks (Studies 1-2). Such skills did not matter at low levels of neuroticism. This interactive pattern was also replicated in the context of life domain satisfaction (Study 2). The results support the view that avoidance motivation encompasses multiple component processes, including some that are cognitive in nature, and specifically extends self-regulatory views of neuroticism. Of most importance, our data indicate that threat-identification skills can be hedonically beneficial, rather than costly, at high levels of neuroticism.

Anxiety Interacts With Expressed Emotion Criticism in the Prediction of Psychotic Symptom Exacerbation

PubMed Central

Docherty, Nancy M.; St-Hilaire, Annie; Aakre, Jennifer M.; Seghers, James P.; McCleery, Amanda; Divilbiss, Marielle

2011-01-01

Psychotic symptoms are exacerbated by social stressors in schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder patients as a group. More specifically, critical attitudes toward patients on the part of family members and others have been associated with a higher risk of relapse in the patients. Some patients appear to be especially vulnerable in this regard. One variable that could affect the degree of sensitivity to a social stressor such as criticism is the individual’s level of anxiety. The present longitudinal study assessed 27 relatively stable outpatients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder and the single “most influential other” (MIO) person for each patient. As hypothesized, (1) patients with high critical MIOs showed increases in psychotic symptoms over time, compared with patients with low critical MIOs; (2) patients high in anxiety at the baseline assessment showed increases in psychotic symptoms at follow-up, compared with patients low in anxiety, and (3) patients with high levels of anxiety at baseline and high critical MIOs showed the greatest exacerbation of psychotic symptoms over time. Objectively measured levels of criticism were more predictive than patient-rated levels of criticism. PMID:19892819

High level intelligent control of telerobotics systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mckee, James

1988-01-01

A high level robot command language is proposed for the autonomous mode of an advanced telerobotics system and a predictive display mechanism for the teleoperational model. It is believed that any such system will involve some mixture of these two modes, since, although artificial intelligence can facilitate significant autonomy, a system that can resort to teleoperation will always have the advantage. The high level command language will allow humans to give the robot instructions in a very natural manner. The robot will then analyze these instructions to infer meaning so that is can translate the task into lower level executable primitives. If, however, the robot is unable to perform the task autonomously, it will switch to the teleoperational mode. The time delay between control movement and actual robot movement has always been a problem in teleoperations. The remote operator may not actually see (via a monitor) the results of high actions for several seconds. A computer generated predictive display system is proposed whereby the operator can see a real-time model of the robot's environment and the delayed video picture on the monitor at the same time.

Reduced Antiplatelet Effect of Aspirin Does Not Predict Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Stable Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Larsen, Sanne Bøjet; Grove, Erik Lerkevang; Neergaard-Petersen, Søs; Würtz, Morten; Hvas, Anne-Mette; Kristensen, Steen Dalby

2017-08-05

Increased platelet aggregation during antiplatelet therapy may predict cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease. The majority of these patients receive aspirin monotherapy. We aimed to investigate whether high platelet-aggregation levels predict cardiovascular events in stable coronary artery disease patients treated with aspirin. We included 900 stable coronary artery disease patients with either previous myocardial infarction, type 2 diabetes mellitus, or both. All patients received single antithrombotic therapy with 75 mg aspirin daily. Platelet aggregation was evaluated 1 hour after aspirin intake using the VerifyNow Aspirin Assay (Accriva Diagnostics) and Multiplate Analyzer (Roche; agonists: arachidonic acid and collagen). Adherence to aspirin was confirmed by serum thromboxane B 2 . The primary end point was the composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and cardiovascular death. At 3-year follow-up, 78 primary end points were registered. The primary end point did not occur more frequently in patients with high platelet-aggregation levels (first versus fourth quartile) assessed by VerifyNow (hazard ratio: 0.5 [95% CI, 0.3-1.1], P =0.08) or Multiplate using arachidonic acid (hazard ratio: 1.0 [95% CI, 0.5-2.1], P =0.92) or collagen (hazard ratio: 1.4 [95% CI, 0.7-2.8], P =0.38). Similar results were found for the composite secondary end point (nonfatal myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, stent thrombosis, and all-cause death) and the single end points. Thromboxane B 2 levels did not predict any end points. Renal insufficiency was the only clinical risk factor predicting the primary and secondary end points. This study is the largest to investigate platelet aggregation in stable coronary artery disease patients receiving aspirin as single antithrombotic therapy. We found that high platelet-aggregation levels did not predict cardiovascular events. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Predicting high risk births with contraceptive prevalence and contraceptive method-mix in an ecologic analysis.

PubMed

Perin, Jamie; Amouzou, Agbessi; Walker, Neff

2017-11-07

Increased contraceptive use has been associated with a decrease in high parity births, births that occur close together in time, and births to very young or to older women. These types of births are also associated with high risk of under-five mortality. Previous studies have looked at the change in the level of contraception use and the average change in these types of high-risk births. We aim to predict the distribution of births in a specific country when there is a change in the level and method of modern contraception. We used data from full birth histories and modern contraceptive use from 207 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys covering 71 countries to describe the distribution of births in each survey based on birth order, preceding birth space, and mother's age at birth. We estimated the ecologic associations between the prevalence and method-mix of modern contraceptives and the proportion of births in each category. Hierarchical modelling was applied to these aggregated cross sectional proportions, so that random effects were estimated for countries with multiple surveys. We use these results to predict the change in type of births associated with scaling up modern contraception in three different scenarios. We observed marked differences between regions, in the absolute rates of contraception, the types of contraceptives in use, and in the distribution of type of birth. Contraceptive method-mix was a significant determinant of proportion of high-risk births, especially for birth spacing, but also for mother's age and parity. Increased use of modern contraceptives is especially predictive of reduced parity and more births with longer preceding space. However, increased contraception alone is not associated with fewer births to women younger than 18 years or a decrease in short-spaced births. Both the level and the type of contraception are important factors in determining the effects of family planning on changes in distribution of high-risk births. The best predictions for how birth risk changes with increased modern contraception and for different contraception methods allow for more nuanced predictions specific to each country and can aid better planning for the scaling up of modern contraception.

Attachment predicts cortisol response and closeness in dyadic social interaction.

PubMed

Ketay, Sarah; Beck, Lindsey A

2017-06-01

The present study examined how the interplay of partners' attachment styles influences cortisol response, actual closeness, and desired closeness during friendship initiation. Participants provided salivary cortisol samples at four timepoints throughout either a high or low closeness task that facilitated high or low levels of self-disclosure with a potential friend (i.e., another same-sex participant). Levels of actual closeness and desired closeness following the task were measured via inclusion of other in the self. Results from multi-level modeling indicated that the interaction of both participants' attachment avoidance predicted cortisol response patterns, with participants showing the highest cortisol response when there was a mismatch between their own and their partners' attachment avoidance. Further, the interaction between both participants' attachment anxiety predicted actual closeness and desired closeness, with participants both feeling and wanting the most closeness with partners when both they and their partners were low in attachment anxiety. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Field, Christopher R; Bayard, Trina S; Gjerdrum, Carina; Hill, Jason M; Meiman, Susan; Elphick, Chris S

2017-05-01

Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Plasma concentration of diamine oxidase (DAO) predicts 1-month mortality of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

PubMed

Li, Feng-Cai; Li, Yue-Kai; Fan, Yu-Chen; Wang, Kai

2018-05-26

Acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) has high 1-month mortality but it is difficult to predict. This present study was aimed to determine the diagnostic value of plasma diamine oxidase (DAO) in predicting the 1-month mortality of ACHBLF. A total of 106 consecutive newly diagnosed ACHBLF patients were retrospectively collected. The plasma expression of DAO was determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The plasma DAO level of survivals [14.0 (7.1; 26.5) ng/mL] was significantly lower than the nonsurvivals [58.6 (32.5; 121.3) ng/mL, P < .001]. The plasma DAO level, hepatic encephalopathy, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score were independent factors associated with the 1-month mortality for ACHBLF. The cut-off point of 15.2 ng/mL for plasma DAO level with sensitivity of 95.45%, specificity of 62.5%, 22.6 for MELD score with sensitivity of 90.91%, specificity of 67.5%, 0.07 for DAO plus MELD with sensitivity of 87.88%, specificity of 80% were selected to discriminate 1-month morality of ACHBLF. Furthermore, DAO plus MELD score showed high AUROC than MELD score for predicting 1-month (0.916 vs. 0.843, P < .01). The plasma DAO level plus MELD > 0.07 predicts poor 1-month mortality of ACHBLF. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Links between early baseline cortisol, attachment classification, and problem behaviors: A test of differential susceptibility versus diathesis-stress.

PubMed

Fong, Michelle C; Measelle, Jeffrey; Conradt, Elisabeth; Ablow, Jennifer C

2017-02-01

The purpose of the current study was to predict concurrent levels of problem behaviors from young children's baseline cortisol and attachment classification, a proxy for the quality of caregiving experienced. In a sample of 58 children living at or below the federal poverty threshold, children's baseline cortisol levels, attachment classification, and problem behaviors were assessed at 17 months of age. We hypothesized that an interaction between baseline cortisol and attachment classification would predict problem behaviors above and beyond any main effects of baseline cortisol and attachment. However, based on limited prior research, we did not predict whether or not this interaction would be more consistent with diathesis-stress or differential susceptibility models. Consistent with diathesis-stress theory, the results indicated no significant differences in problem behavior levels among children with high baseline cortisol. In contrast, children with low baseline cortisol had the highest level of problem behaviors in the context of a disorganized attachment relationship. However, in the context of a secure attachment relationship, children with low baseline cortisol looked no different, with respect to problem behavior levels, then children with high cortisol levels. These findings have substantive implications for the socioemotional development of children reared in poverty. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Process-based modelling to evaluate simulated groundwater levels and frequencies in a Chalk catchment in south-western England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenner, Simon; Coxon, Gemma; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Freer, Jim; Hartmann, Andreas

2018-02-01

Chalk aquifers are an important source of drinking water in the UK. Due to their properties, they are particularly vulnerable to groundwater-related hazards like floods and droughts. Understanding and predicting groundwater levels is therefore important for effective and safe water management. Chalk is known for its high porosity and, due to its dissolvability, exposed to karstification and strong subsurface heterogeneity. To cope with the karstic heterogeneity and limited data availability, specialised modelling approaches are required that balance model complexity and data availability. In this study, we present a novel approach to evaluate simulated groundwater level frequencies derived from a semi-distributed karst model that represents subsurface heterogeneity by distribution functions. Simulated groundwater storages are transferred into groundwater levels using evidence from different observations wells. Using a percentile approach we can assess the number of days exceeding or falling below selected groundwater level percentiles. Firstly, we evaluate the performance of the model when simulating groundwater level time series using a spilt sample test and parameter identifiability analysis. Secondly, we apply a split sample test to the simulated groundwater level percentiles to explore the performance in predicting groundwater level exceedances. We show that the model provides robust simulations of discharge and groundwater levels at three observation wells at a test site in a chalk-dominated catchment in south-western England. The second split sample test also indicates that the percentile approach is able to reliably predict groundwater level exceedances across all considered timescales up to their 75th percentile. However, when looking at the 90th percentile, it only provides acceptable predictions for long time periods and it fails when the 95th percentile of groundwater exceedance levels is considered. By modifying the historic forcings of our model according to expected future climate changes, we create simple climate scenarios and we show that the projected climate changes may lead to generally lower groundwater levels and a reduction of exceedances of high groundwater level percentiles.

Path-following in model predictive rollover prevention using front steering and braking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghazali, Mohammad; Durali, Mohammad; Salarieh, Hassan

2017-01-01

In this paper vehicle path-following in the presence of rollover risk is investigated. Vehicles with high centre of mass are prone to roll instability. Untripped rollover risk is increased in high centre of gravity vehicles and high-friction road condition. Researches introduce strategies to handle the short-duration rollover condition. In these researches, however, trajectory tracking is affected and not thoroughly investigated. This paper puts stress on tracking error from rollover prevention. A lower level model predictive front steering controller is adopted to deal with rollover and tracking error as a priority sequence. A brake control is included in lower level controller which directly obeys an upper level controller (ULC) command. The ULC manages vehicle speed regarding primarily tracking error. Simulation results show that the proposed control framework maintains roll stability while tracking error is confined to predefined error limit.

Threshold determination and hazard evaluation of the disaster about drought/flood sudden alternation in Huaihe River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Zhonghui; Li, Ning; Wu, Xianhua

2017-08-01

Based on the related impact factors of precipitation anomaly referred in previous research, eight atmospheric circulation indicators in pre-winter and spring picked out by correlation analysis as the independent variables and the hazard levels of drought/flood sudden alternation index (DFSAI) as the dependent variables were used to construct the nonlinear and nonparametric classification and regression tree (CART) for the threshold determination and hazard evaluation on bimonthly and monthly scales in Huaihe River basin. Results show that the spring indicators about Arctic oscillation index (AOI_S), Asia polar vortex area index (APVAI_S), and Asian meridional circulation index (AMCI_S) were extracted as the three main impact factors, which were proved to be suitable for the hazard levels assessment of the drought/flood sudden alternation (DFSA) disaster based on bimonthly scale. On monthly scale, AOI_S, northern hemisphere polar vortex intensity index in pre-winter (NHPVII_PW), and AMCI_S are the three primary variables in hazard level prediction of DFSA in May and June; NHPVII_PW, AMCI_PW, and AMCI_S are for that in June and July; NHPVII_PW and EASMI are for that in July and August. The type of the disaster (flood to drought/drought to flood/no DFSA) and hazard level under different conditions also can be obtained from each model. The hazard level and type were expressed by the integer from - 3 to 3, which change from the high level of disaster that flood to drought (level - 3) to the high level of the reverse type (level 3). The middle number 0 represents no DFSA. The high levels of the two sides decrease progressively to the neutralization (level 0). When AOI_S less than - 0.355, the disaster of the quick turn from drought to flood is more apt to happen (level 1) on bimonthly scale; when AOI_S less than - 1.32, the same type disaster may occur (level 2) in May and June on monthly scale. When NHPVII_PW less than 341.5, the disaster of the quick turn from flood to drought will occur (level - 1) in June and July on monthly scale. By this analogy, different hazard types and levels all can be judged from the optimal models. The corresponding data from 2011 to 2015 were selected to verify the final models through the comparison between the predicted and actual levels, and the models of M1 (bimonthly scale), M2, and M3 (monthly scale) were proved to be acceptable by the prediction accuracy rate (compared the predicted with the observed levels, 73%, 11/15). The proposed CART method in this research is a new try for the short-term climate prediction.

Social ecology of child soldiers: child, family, and community determinants of mental health, psychosocial well-being, and reintegration in Nepal.

PubMed

Kohrt, Brandon A; Jordans, Mark J D; Tol, Wietse A; Perera, Em; Karki, Rohit; Koirala, Suraj; Upadhaya, Nawaraj

2010-11-01

This study employed a social ecology framework to evaluate psychosocial well-being in a cross-sectional sample of 142 former child soldiers in Nepal. Outcome measures included the Depression Self Rating Scale (DSRS), Child Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Symptom Scale (CPSS), and locally developed measures of functional impairment and reintegration. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to examine the contribution of factors at multiple levels. At the child level, traumatic exposures, especially torture, predicted poor outcomes, while education improved outcomes. At the family level, conflict-related death of a relative, physical abuse in the household, and loss of wealth during the conflict predicted poor outcomes. At the community level, living in high caste Hindu communities predicted lack of reintegration supports. Ultimately, social ecology is well suited to identify intervention foci across ecological levels based on community differences in vulnerability and protective factors.

Chymase Level Is a Predictive Biomarker of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Pediatric and Adult Patients.

PubMed

Tissera, Hasitha; Rathore, Abhay P S; Leong, Wei Yee; Pike, Brian L; Warkentien, Tyler E; Farouk, Farouk S; Syenina, Ayesa; Eong Ooi, Eng; Gubler, Duane J; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; St John, Ashley L

2017-11-27

Most patients with dengue experience mild disease, dengue fever (DF), while few develop the life-threatening diseases dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or dengue shock syndrome (DSS). No laboratory tests predict DHF or DSS. We evaluated whether the serum chymase level can predict DHF or DSS in adult and pediatric patients and the influence of preexisting conditions (PECs) on chymase levels. Serum chymase levels were measured in patients presenting with undifferentiated fever to hospitals in Colombo District, Sri Lanka. The value of serum the chymase concentration and clinical signs and symptoms as predictors of DHF and/or DSS was evaluated by multivariate analysis. We assessed the influence of age, PECs, and day after fever onset on the robustness of the chymase level as a biomarker for DHF and/or DSS. An elevated chymase level in acute phase blood samples was highly indicative of later diagnosis of DHF or DSS for pediatric and adult patients with dengue. No recorded PECs prevented an increase in the chymase level during DHF. However, certain PECs (obesity and cardiac or lung-associated diseases) resulted in a concomitant increase in chymase levels among adult patients with DHF. These results show that patients with acute dengue who present with high levels of serum chymase consistently are at greater risk of DHF. The chymase level is a robust prognostic biomarker of severe dengue for adult and pediatric patients. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

High Level Information Fusion (HLIF) with nested fusion loops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodley, Robert; Gosnell, Michael; Fischer, Amber

2013-05-01

Situation modeling and threat prediction require higher levels of data fusion in order to provide actionable information. Beyond the sensor data and sources the analyst has access to, the use of out-sourced and re-sourced data is becoming common. Through the years, some common frameworks have emerged for dealing with information fusion—perhaps the most ubiquitous being the JDL Data Fusion Group and their initial 4-level data fusion model. Since these initial developments, numerous models of information fusion have emerged, hoping to better capture the human-centric process of data analyses within a machine-centric framework. 21st Century Systems, Inc. has developed Fusion with Uncertainty Reasoning using Nested Assessment Characterizer Elements (FURNACE) to address challenges of high level information fusion and handle bias, ambiguity, and uncertainty (BAU) for Situation Modeling, Threat Modeling, and Threat Prediction. It combines JDL fusion levels with nested fusion loops and state-of-the-art data reasoning. Initial research has shown that FURNACE is able to reduce BAU and improve the fusion process by allowing high level information fusion (HLIF) to affect lower levels without the double counting of information or other biasing issues. The initial FURNACE project was focused on the underlying algorithms to produce a fusion system able to handle BAU and repurposed data in a cohesive manner. FURNACE supports analyst's efforts to develop situation models, threat models, and threat predictions to increase situational awareness of the battlespace. FURNACE will not only revolutionize the military intelligence realm, but also benefit the larger homeland defense, law enforcement, and business intelligence markets.

ASSOCIATIONS OF ADIPONECTIN, LEPTIN LEVELS, AND THE CHANGE OF BODY COMPOSITION IN PATIENTS ON PERITONEAL DIALYSIS: A PROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY.

PubMed

Xu, Xiao; Tian, Xue; Chen, Yuan; Yang, Zhi-Kai; Qu, Zhen; Dong, Jie

2018-04-19

Although the association between adipokines such as adiponectin, leptin, and body composition has been noted, whether they could predict the change of fat mass and lean body mass is unknown. We aimed to examine these associations in patients on peritoneal dialysis (PD) through a prospective cohort study. Body composition (by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry) including fat mass and lean body mass were examined at baseline and then at year 3. Serum leptin and adiponectin levels were measured. Demographic data, comorbidity, biochemical data, inflammation (high-sensitive C-reactive protein [hs-CRP]) and insulin resistance (homeostatic model assessment [HOMA-IR]) were also examined. At baseline, serum adiponectin levels were significantly inversely correlated with weight, lean body mass index (LBMI), fat mass index (FMI), lean body mass (LBM), and fat mass (FM) in 213 prevalent patients. At year 3, FMI, LBMI, FM, and the percentage of FM (FM%) increased while the percentage of LBM (LBM%) significantly decreased despite unchanged weight and LBM among the remaining 112 patients. After adjustment for demographic data, comorbidities, hs-CRP, HOMA-IR, and daily energy intake (DEI), serum adiponectin at baseline was not associated with increases in LBMI, FMI, and FM, but independently associated with an increase in FM% and a decrease in LBM%. The predictive effect of high-serum adiponectin level on mortality disappeared after adjusting for diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Serum leptin was not associated with any changes in body composition during the follow-up, nor with the mortality in this cohort. A high adiponectin level could predict an increase in FM% and a decrease in LBM% during a 3-year follow-up in PD patients. Serum adiponectin could not independently predict mortality in PD patients.

Factors Predicting Post-High School Employment for Young Adults with Visual Impairments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDonnall, Michele Capella

2010-01-01

Although low levels of employment among transition-age youth with visual impairments (VI) have long been a concern, empirical research in this area is very limited. The purpose of this study was to identify factors that predict future employment for this population and to compare these factors to the factors that predict employment for the general…

A Bayesian Performance Prediction Model for Mathematics Education: A Prototypical Approach for Effective Group Composition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bekele, Rahel; McPherson, Maggie

2011-01-01

This research work presents a Bayesian Performance Prediction Model that was created in order to determine the strength of personality traits in predicting the level of mathematics performance of high school students in Addis Ababa. It is an automated tool that can be used to collect information from students for the purpose of effective group…

Using Growth Rate of Reading Fluency to Predict Performance on Statewide Achievement Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hinkle, Rachelle Whittaker

2011-01-01

Federal legislation has prescribed the increased use of statewide achievement tests as the culmination of a student's knowledge and ability at the end of a grade level; however, schools need to be able to predict those who are at-risk of performing poorly on these high-stakes tests. Three studies served to identify a means of predicting statewide…

MGMT promoter methylation determined by HRM in comparison to MSP and pyrosequencing for predicting high-grade glioma response.

PubMed

Switzeny, Olivier J; Christmann, Markus; Renovanz, Mirjam; Giese, Alf; Sommer, Clemens; Kaina, Bernd

2016-01-01

The DNA repair protein O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) causes resistance of cancer cells to alkylating agents and, therefore, is a well-established predictive marker for high-grade gliomas that are routinely treated with alkylating drugs. Since MGMT is highly epigenetically regulated, the MGMT promoter methylation status is taken as an indicator of MGMT silencing, predicting the outcome of glioma therapy. MGMT promoter methylation is usually determined by methylation specific PCR (MSP), which is a labor intensive and error-prone method often used semi-quantitatively. Searching for alternatives, we used closed-tube high resolution melt (HRM) analysis, which is a quantitative method, and compared it with MSP and pyrosequencing regarding its predictive value. We analyzed glioblastoma cell lines with known MGMT activity and formalin-fixed samples from IDH1 wild-type high-grade glioma patients (WHO grade III/IV) treated with radiation and temozolomide by HRM, MSP, and pyrosequencing. The data were compared as to progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) of patients exhibiting the methylated and unmethylated MGMT status. A promoter methylation cut-off level relevant for PFS and OS was determined. In a multivariate Cox regression model, methylation of MGMT promoter of high-grade gliomas analyzed by HRM, but not MSP, was found to be an independent predictive marker for OS. Univariate Kaplan-Meier analyses revealed for PFS and OS a significant and better discrimination between methylated and unmethylated tumors when quantitative HRM was used instead of MSP. Compared to MSP and pyrosequencing, the HRM method is simple, cost effective, highly accurate and fast. HRM is at least equivalent to pyrosequencing in quantifying the methylation level. It is superior in predicting PFS and OS of high-grade glioma patients compared to MSP and, therefore, can be recommended being used routinely for determination of the MGMT status of gliomas.

High pentraxin 3 level predicts septic shock and bacteremia at the onset of febrile neutropenia after intensive chemotherapy of hematologic patients

PubMed Central

Vänskä, Matti; Koivula, Irma; Hämäläinen, Sari; Pulkki, Kari; Nousiainen, Tapio; Jantunen, Esa; Juutilainen, Auni

2011-01-01

We evaluated pentraxin 3 as a marker for complications of neutropenic fever in 100 hematologic patients receiving intensive chemotherapy. Pentraxin 3 and C-reactive protein were measured at fever onset and then daily to day 3. Bacteremia was observed in 19 patients and septic shock in 5 patients (three deaths). In comparison to C-reactive protein, pentraxin 3 achieved its maximum more rapidly. Pentraxin 3 correlated not only with the same day C-reactive protein but also with the next day C-reactive protein. High pentraxin 3 on day 0 was associated with the development of septic shock (P=0.009) and bacteremia (P=0.046). The non-survivors had constantly high pentraxin 3 levels. To conclude, pentraxin 3 is an early predictor of complications in hematologic patients with neutropenic fever. High level of pentraxin 3 predicts septic shock and bacteremia already at the onset of febrile neutropenia. (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00781040.) PMID:21880642

Evaluation of WRF-Predicted Near-Hub-Height Winds and Ramp Events over a Pacific Northwest Site with Complex Terrain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Qing; Berg, Larry K.; Pekour, Mikhail

The WRF model version 3.3 is used to simulate near hub-height winds and power ramps utilizing three commonly used planetary boundary-layer (PBL) schemes: Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), University of Washington (UW), and Yonsei University (YSU). The predicted winds have small mean biases compared with observations. Power ramps and step changes (changes within an hour) consistently show that the UW scheme performed better in predicting up ramps under stable conditions with higher prediction accuracy and capture rates. Both YSU and UW scheme show good performance predicting up- and down- ramps under unstable conditions with YSU being slightly better for ramp durations longer thanmore » an hour. MYJ is the most successful simulating down-ramps under stable conditions. The high wind speed and large shear associated with low-level jets are frequently associated with power ramps, and the biases in predicted low-level jet explain some of the shown differences in ramp predictions among different PBL schemes. Low-level jets were observed as low as ~200 m in altitude over the Columbia Basin Wind Energy Study (CBWES) site, located in an area of complex terrain. The shear, low-level peak wind speeds, as well as the height of maximum wind speed are not well predicted. Model simulations with 3 PBL schemes show the largest variability among them under stable conditions.« less

Trait psychopathy, emotional intelligence, and criminal thinking: Predicting illegal behavior among college students.

PubMed

Fix, Rebecca L; Fix, Spencer T

2015-01-01

Research focusing on individuals high on trait psychopathy remains limited. Higher trait psychopathy is associated with lower levels of emotional intelligence and increased participation in illegal behavior. Additionally, research has confirmed significantly higher levels of criminal thinking and lower levels of empathy in the incarcerated psychopathic population. However, the relationships between trait psychopathy and criminal thinking have not been researched in the community or college population. To test for such differences, questionnaires containing relevant measures were administered to 111 college students. Results indicated that higher levels of trait psychopathy were significantly related to less caring for others, intrapersonal understanding, and general mood, and greater interpersonal functioning and stress management. Furthermore, trait psychopathy was a strong predictor of violent, property, drug, and status offenses. Power-oriented criminal thinking was also predictive of violent behaviors, and entitlement predicted property offending. Results suggest emotional intelligence is important for predicting psychopathy, and trait psychopathy is a strong predictor of all types of illegal behaviors among the non-incarcerated population. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Defining a glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) level that predicts increased risk of penile implant infection.

PubMed

Habous, Mohamad; Tal, Raanan; Tealab, Alaa; Soliman, Tarek; Nassar, Mohammed; Mekawi, Zenhom; Mahmoud, Saad; Abdelwahab, Osama; Elkhouly, Mohamed; Kamr, Hatem; Remeah, Abdallah; Binsaleh, Saleh; Ralph, David; Mulhall, John

2018-02-01

To re-evaluate the role of diabetes mellitus (DM) as a risk factor for penile implant infection by exploring the association between glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels and penile implant infection rates and to define a threshold value that predicts implant infection. We conducted a multicentre prospective study including all patients undergoing penile implant surgery between 2009 and 2015. Preoperative, perioperative and postoperative management were identical for the entire cohort. Univariate analysis was performed to define predictors of implant infection. The HbA1c levels were analysed as continuous variables and sequential analysis was conducted using 0.5% increments to define a threshold level predicting implant infection. Multivariable analysis was performed with the following factors entered in the model: DM, HbA1C level, patient age, implant type, number of vascular risk factors (VRFs), presence of Peyronie's disease (PD), body mass index (BMI), and surgeon volume. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was generated to define the optimal HbA1C threshold for infection prediction. In all, 902 implant procedures were performed over the study period. The mean patient age was 56.6 years. The mean HbA1c level was 8.0%, with 81% of men having a HbA1c level of >6%. In all, 685 (76%) implants were malleable and 217 (24%) were inflatable devices; 302 (33.5%) patients also had a diagnosis of PD. The overall infection rate was 8.9% (80/902). Patients who had implant infection had significantly higher mean HbA1c levels, 9.5% vs 7.8% (P < 0.001). Grouping the cases by HbA1c level, we found infection rates were: 1.3% with HbA1c level of <6.5%, 1.5% for 6.5-7.5%, 6.5% for 7.6-8.5%, 14.7% for 8.6-9.5%, 22.4% for >9.5% (P < 0.001). Patient age, implant type, and number of VRFs were not predictive. Predictors defined on multivariable analysis were: PD, high BMI, and high HbA1c level, whilst a high-volume surgeon had a protective effect and was associated with a reduced infection risk. Using ROC analysis, we determined that a HbA1c threshold level of 8.5% predicted infection with a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 65%. Uncontrolled DM is associated with increased risk of infection after penile implant surgery. The risk is directly related to the HbA1c level. A threshold HbA1c level of 8.5% is suggested for clinical use to identify patients at increased infection risk. © 2017 The Authors BJU International © 2017 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Procalcitonin as a potential predicting factor for prognosis in bacterial meningitis.

PubMed

Park, Bong Soo; Kim, Si Eun; Park, Si Hyung; Kim, Jinseung; Shin, Kyong Jin; Ha, Sam Yeol; Park, JinSe; Kim, Sung Eun; Lee, Byung In; Park, Kang Min

2017-02-01

We investigated the potential role of serum procalcitonin in differentiating bacterial meningitis from viral meningitis, and in predicting the prognosis in patients with bacterial meningitis. This was a retrospective study of 80 patients with bacterial meningitis (13 patients died). In addition, 58 patients with viral meningitis were included as the disease control groups for comparison. The serum procalcitonin level was measured in all patients at admission. Differences in demographic and laboratory data, including the procalcitonin level, were analyzed between the groups. We used the mortality rate during hospitalization as a marker of prognosis in patients with bacterial meningitis. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that high serum levels of procalcitonin (>0.12ng/mL) were an independently significant variable for differentiating bacterial meningitis from viral meningitis. The risk of having bacterial meningitis with high serum levels of procalcitonin was at least 6 times higher than the risk of having viral meningitis (OR=6.76, 95% CI: 1.84-24.90, p=0.004). In addition, we found that high levels of procalcitonin (>7.26ng/mL) in the blood were an independently significant predictor for death in patients with bacterial meningitis. The risk of death in patients with bacterial meningitis with high serum levels of procalcitonin may be at least 9 times higher than those without death (OR=9.09, 95% CI: 1.74-47.12, p=0.016). We found that serum procalcitonin is a useful marker for differentiating bacterial meningitis from viral meningitis, and it is also a potential predicting factor for prognosis in patients with bacterial meningitis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive value of clinical and laboratory variables for vesicoureteral reflux in children.

PubMed

Soylu, Alper; Kasap, Belde; Demir, Korcan; Türkmen, Mehmet; Kavukçu, Salih

2007-06-01

We aimed to determine the predictability of clinical and laboratory variables for vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) in children with urinary tract infection (UTI). Data of children with febrile UTI who underwent voiding cystoureterography between 2002 and 2005 were evaluated retrospectively for clinical (age, gender, fever > or = 38.5 degrees C, recurrent UTI), laboratory [leukocytosis, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), pyuria, serum creatinine (S(Cr))] and imaging (renal ultrasonography) variables. Children with VUR (group 1) vs. no VUR (group 2) and children with high-grade (III-V) VUR (group 3) vs. no or low-grade (I-II) VUR (group 4) were compared. Among 88 patients (24 male), 38 had VUR and 21 high-grade VUR. Fever > or = 38.5 degrees C was associated with VUR [odds ratio (OR): 7.5]. CRP level of 50 mg/l was the best cut-off level for predicting high-grade VUR (OR 15.5; discriminative ability 0.89 +/- 0.05). Performing voiding cystourethrography based on this CRP level would result in failure to notice 9% of patients with high-grade VUR, whereas 69% of children with no/low-grade VUR would be spared from this invasive test. In conclusion, fever > or = 38 degrees C and CRP > 50 mg/l seem to be potentially useful clinical predictors of VUR and high-grade VUR, respectively, in pediatric patients with UTI. Further validation of these findings could limit unnecessary voiding cystourethrography.

Transactional Relations Between Marital Functioning and Depressive Symptoms

PubMed Central

Kouros, Chrystyna D.; Cummings, E. Mark

2012-01-01

The present study investigated dynamic, longitudinal associations between depressive symptoms and marital processes. Two hundred ninety-six couples reported on marital satisfaction, marital conflict, and depressive symptoms yearly for three years. Observational measures of marital conflict were also collected. Results suggested that different domains of marital functioning related to husbands’ versus wives’ symptoms. For husbands, transactional relations between marital satisfaction and depressive symptoms were identified: high levels of depressive symptoms predicted subsequent decreases in marital satisfaction, and decreased marital satisfaction predicted subsequent elevations in symptoms over time. For wives, high levels of marital conflict predicted subsequent elevations in symptoms over time. Cross-partner results indicated that husbands’ depressive symptoms were also related to subsequent declines in wives’ marital satisfaction. Results are discussed with regard to theoretical perspectives on the marital functioning-depression link and directions for future research are outlined. PMID:21219284

Academic Self-Handicapping and Achievement Goals: A Further Examination.

PubMed

Midgley, Carol; Urdan, Tim

2001-01-01

This study extends previous research on the relations among students' personal achievement goals, perceptions of the classroom goal structure, and reports of the use of self-handicapping strategies. Surveys, specific to the math domain, were given to 484 7th-grade students in nine middle schools. Personal performance-avoid goals positively predicted handicapping, whereas personal performance-approach goals did not. Personal task goals negatively predicted handicapping. Perceptions of a performance goal structure positively predicted handicapping, and perceptions of a task goal structure negatively predicted handicapping, independent of personal goals. Median splits used to examine multiple goal profiles revealed that students high in performance-avoid goals used handicapping more than did those low in performance-avoid goals regardless of the level of task goals. Students low in performance-avoid goals and high in task goals handicapped less than those low in both goals. Level of performance-approach goals had little effect on the relation between task goals and handicapping. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

The relation of respiratory sinus arrhythmia to later shyness: Moderation by neighborhood quality.

PubMed

Zhang, Hui; Spinrad, Tracy L; Eisenberg, Nancy; Zhang, Linlin

2018-05-21

The purpose of the study was to predict young children's shyness from both internal/biological (i.e., resting respiratory sinus arrhythmia; RSA) and external (i.e., neighborhood quality) factors. Participants were 180 children at 42 (Time 1; T1), 72 (T2), and 84 (T3) months of age. RSA data were obtained at T1 during a neutral film in the laboratory. Mothers reported perceived neighborhood quality at T2 and children's dispositional shyness at T1 and T3. Path analyses indicated that resting RSA interacted with neighborhood quality to predict T3 shyness, even after controlling for earlier family income and T1 shyness. Specifically, high levels of resting RSA predicted low levels of shyness in the context of high neighborhood quality. When neighborhood quality was low, resting RSA was positively related to later shyness. These findings indicate that children's shyness is predicted by more than biological processes and that consideration of the broader context is critical to understanding children's social behavior. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Deep Residual Network Predicts Cortical Representation and Organization of Visual Features for Rapid Categorization.

PubMed

Wen, Haiguang; Shi, Junxing; Chen, Wei; Liu, Zhongming

2018-02-28

The brain represents visual objects with topographic cortical patterns. To address how distributed visual representations enable object categorization, we established predictive encoding models based on a deep residual network, and trained them to predict cortical responses to natural movies. Using this predictive model, we mapped human cortical representations to 64,000 visual objects from 80 categories with high throughput and accuracy. Such representations covered both the ventral and dorsal pathways, reflected multiple levels of object features, and preserved semantic relationships between categories. In the entire visual cortex, object representations were organized into three clusters of categories: biological objects, non-biological objects, and background scenes. In a finer scale specific to each cluster, object representations revealed sub-clusters for further categorization. Such hierarchical clustering of category representations was mostly contributed by cortical representations of object features from middle to high levels. In summary, this study demonstrates a useful computational strategy to characterize the cortical organization and representations of visual features for rapid categorization.

Predictive model for CO2 generation and decay in building envelopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aglan, Heshmat A.

2003-01-01

Understanding carbon dioxide generation and decay patterns in buildings with high occupancy levels is useful to identify their indoor air quality, air change rates, percent fresh air makeup, occupancy pattern, and how a variable air volume system to off-set undesirable CO2 level can be modulated. A mathematical model governing the generation and decay of CO2 in building envelopes with forced ventilation due to high occupancy is developed. The model has been verified experimentally in a newly constructed energy efficient healthy house. It was shown that the model accurately predicts the CO2 concentration at any time during the generation and decay processes.

A Methylmercury Prediction Too For Surface Waters Across The Contiguous United States (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krabbenhoft, D. P.; Booth, N.; Lutz, M.; Fienen, M. N.; Saltman, T.

2009-12-01

About 20 years ago, researchers at a few locations across the globe discovered high levels of mercury in fish from remote settings lacking any obvious mercury source. We now know that for most locations atmospheric deposition is the dominant mercury source, and that mercury methylation is the key process that translates low mercury loading rates into relatively high levels in top predators of aquatic food webs. Presently, almost all US states have advisories for elevated levels of mercury in sport fish, and as a result there is considerable public awareness and concern for this nearly ubiquitous contaminant issue. In some states, “statewide” advisories have been issued because elevated fish mercury levels are so common, or the state has no effective way to monitor thousands of lakes, reservoirs, wetlands, and streams. As such, resource managers and public health officials have limited options for informing the public on of where elevated mercury concentrations in sport fish are more likely to occur than others. This project provides, for the first time, a national map of predicted (modeled) methylmercury concentrations in surface waters, which is the most toxic and bioaccumulative form of mercury in the environment. The map is the result of over two decades of research that resulted in the formulation of conceptual models of the mercury methylation process, which is strongly governed by environmental conditions - specifically hydrologic landscapes and water quality. The resulting predictive map shows clear regional trends in the distribution of methylmercury concentrations in surface waters. East of the Mississippi, the Gulf and southeastern Atlantic coast, the northeast, the lower Mississippi valley, and Great Lakes area are predicted to have generally higher environmental methylmercury levels. Higher-elevation, well-drained areas of Appalachia are predicted to have relatively lower methylmercury abundance. Other than the prairie pothole region, in the western US incessant regional patterns are less clear. However, the full range of predicted methylmercury levels are predicted to occur in western US watersheds. Lastly, although this map is being presented at the continental US scale, the principles used to generate the modeled results can easily applied to data sets that represent a range of geographic scales.

Prosocial Behavior: Long-Term Trajectories and Psychosocial Outcomes

PubMed Central

Flynn, Elinor; Ehrenreich, Samuel E.; Beron, Kurt J.; Underwood, Marion K.

2015-01-01

This study investigated developmental trajectories for prosocial behavior for a sample followed from age 10 – 18 and examined possible adjustment outcomes associated with membership in different trajectory groups. Participants were 136 boys and 148 girls, their teachers, and their parents (19.4% African American, 2.4% Asian, 51.9% Caucasian, 19.5% Hispanic, and 5.8% other). Teachers rated children’s prosocial behavior yearly in grades 4 – 12. At the end of the 12th grade year, teachers, parents, and participants reported externalizing behaviors and participants reported internalizing symptoms, narcissism, and features of borderline personality disorder. Results suggested that prosocial behavior remained stable from middle childhood through late adolescence. Group-based mixture modeling revealed three prosocial trajectory groups: low (18.7%), medium (52.8%), and high (29.6%). Membership in the high prosocial trajectory group predicted lower levels of externalizing behavior as compared to the low prosocial trajectory group, and for girls, lower levels of internalizing symptoms. Membership in the medium prosocial trajectory group also predicted being lower on externalizing behaviors. Membership in the high prosocial trajectory group predicted lower levels of borderline personality features for girls only. PMID:26236108

Molecular Pathways: Extracting Medical Knowledge from High Throughput Genomic Data

PubMed Central

Goldstein, Theodore; Paull, Evan O.; Ellis, Matthew J.; Stuart, Joshua M.

2013-01-01

High-throughput genomic data that measures RNA expression, DNA copy number, mutation status and protein levels provide us with insights into the molecular pathway structure of cancer. Genomic lesions (amplifications, deletions, mutations) and epigenetic modifications disrupt biochemical cellular pathways. While the number of possible lesions is vast, different genomic alterations may result in concordant expression and pathway activities, producing common tumor subtypes that share similar phenotypic outcomes. How can these data be translated into medical knowledge that provides prognostic and predictive information? First generation mRNA expression signatures such as Genomic Health's Oncotype DX already provide prognostic information, but do not provide therapeutic guidance beyond the current standard of care – which is often inadequate in high-risk patients. Rather than building molecular signatures based on gene expression levels, evidence is growing that signatures based on higher-level quantities such as from genetic pathways may provide important prognostic and diagnostic cues. We provide examples of how activities for molecular entities can be predicted from pathway analysis and how the composite of all such activities, referred to here as the “activitome,” help connect genomic events to clinical factors in order to predict the drivers of poor outcome. PMID:23430023

Studies on free stream turbulence as related to gas turbine heat transfer. A review of authors' past work and future implications.

PubMed

Yavuzkurt, S; Iyer, G R

2001-05-01

A review of the past work done on free stream turbulence (FST) as applied to gas turbine heat transfer and its implications for future studies are presented. It is a comprehensive approach to the results of many individual studies in order to derive the general conclusions that could be inferred from all rather than discussing the results of each individual study. Three experimental and four modeling studies are reviewed. The first study was on prediction of heat transfer for film cooled gas turbine blades. An injection model was devised and used along with a 2-D low Reynolds number k-epsilon model of turbulence for the calculations. Reasonable predictions of heat transfer coefficients were obtained for turbulence intensity levels up to 7%. Following this modeling study a series of experimental studies were undertaken. The objective of these studies was to gain a fundamental understanding of mechanisms through which FST augments the surface heat transfer. Experiments were carried out in the boundary layer and in the free stream downstream of a gas turbine combustor simulator, which produced initial FST levels of 25.7% and large length scales (About 5-10 cm for a boundary layer 4-5 cm thick). This result showed that one possible mechanism through which FST caused an increase in heat transfer is by increasing the number of ejection events. In a number of modeling studies several well-known k-epsilon models were compared for their predictive capability of heat transfer and skin friction coefficients under moderate and high FST. Two data sets, one with moderate levels of FST (about 7%) and one with high levels of FST (about 25%) were used for this purpose. Although the models did fine in their predictions of cases with no FST (baseline cases) they failed one by one as FST levels were increased. Under high FST (25.7% initial intensity) predictions of Stanton number were between 35-100% in error compared to the measured values. Later a new additional production term indicating the interaction between the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and mean velocity gradients was introduced into the TKE equation. The predicted results of skin friction coefficient and Stanton number were excellent both in moderate and high FST cases. In fact these model also gave good predictions of TKE profiles whereas earlier unmodified models did not predict the correct TKE profiles even under moderate turbulence intensities. Although this new production term seems to achieve the purpose, it is the authors' belief that it is diffusion term of the TKE equation, which needs to be modified in order to fit the physical events in high FST boundary layer flows. The results of these studies are currently being used to come up with new diffusion model for the TKE equation.

Luteinizing Hormone and Testosterone Levels during Acute Phase of Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: Prognostic Implications for Adult Male Patients

PubMed Central

Hohl, Alexandre; Zanela, Fernando Areas; Ghisi, Gabriela; Ronsoni, Marcelo Fernando; Diaz, Alexandre Paim; Schwarzbold, Marcelo Liborio; Dafre, Alcir Luiz; Reddi, Benjamin; Lin, Kátia; Pizzol, Felipe Dal; Walz, Roger

2018-01-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a worldwide core public health problem affecting mostly young male subjects. An alarming increase in incidence has turned TBI into a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in young adults as well as a tremendous resource burden on the health and welfare sector. Hormone dysfunction is highly prevalent during the acute phase of severe TBI. In particular, investigation of the luteinizing hormone (LH) and testosterone levels during the acute phase of severe TBI in male has identified a high incidence of low testosterone levels in male patients (36.5–100%) but the prognostic significance of which remains controversial. Two independent studies showed that normal or elevated levels of LH levels earlier during hospitalization are significantly associated with higher mortality/morbidity. The association between LH levels and prognosis was independent of other predictive variables such as neuroimaging, admission Glasgow coma scale, and pupillary reaction. The possible mechanisms underlying this association and further research directions in this field are discussed. Overall, current data suggest that LH levels during the acute phase of TBI might contribute to accurate prognostication and further prospective multicentric studies are required to develop more sophisticated predictive models incorporating biomarkers such as LH in the quest for accurate outcome prediction following TBI. Moreover, the potential therapeutic benefits of modulating LH during the acute phase of TBI warrant investigation. PMID:29487565

Predictive modeling of crystal accumulation in high-level waste glass melters processing radioactive waste

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matyáš, Josef; Gervasio, Vivianaluxa; Sannoh, Sulaiman E.; Kruger, Albert A.

2017-11-01

The effectiveness of high-level waste vitrification at Hanford's Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant may be limited by precipitation/accumulation of spinel crystals [(Fe, Ni, Mn, Zn)(Fe, Cr)2O4] in the glass discharge riser of Joule-heated ceramic melters during idling. These crystals do not affect glass durability; however, if accumulated in thick layers, they can clog the melter and prevent discharge of molten glass into canisters. To address this problem, an empirical model was developed that can predict thicknesses of accumulated layers as a function of glass composition. This model predicts well the accumulation of single crystals and/or small-scale agglomerates, but excessive agglomeration observed in high-Ni-Fe glass resulted in an underprediction of accumulated layers, which gradually worsened over time as an increased number of agglomerates formed. The accumulation rate of ∼53.8 ± 3.7 μm/h determined for this glass will result in a ∼26 mm-thick layer after 20 days of melter idling.

High Peer Popularity Longitudinally Predicts Adolescent Health Risk Behavior, or Does It?: An Examination of Linear and Quadratic Associations

PubMed Central

Choukas-Bradley, Sophia C.; Helms, Sarah W.; Brechwald, Whitney A.; Rancourt, Diana

2011-01-01

Objective In contrast to prior work, recent theory suggests that high, not low, levels of adolescent peer popularity may be associated with health risk behavior. This study examined (a) whether popularity may be uniquely associated with cigarette use, marijuana use, and sexual risk behavior, beyond the predictive effects of aggression; (b) whether the longitudinal association between popularity and health risk behavior may be curvilinear; and (c) gender moderation. Methods A total of 336 adolescents, initially in 10–11th grades, reported cigarette use, marijuana use, and number of sexual intercourse partners at two time points 18 months apart. Sociometric peer nominations were used to examine popularity and aggression. Results Longitudinal quadratic effects and gender moderation suggest that both high and low levels of popularity predict some, but not all, health risk behaviors. Conclusions New theoretical models can be useful for understanding the complex manner in which health risk behaviors may be reinforced within the peer context. PMID:21852342

High peer popularity longitudinally predicts adolescent health risk behavior, or does it?: an examination of linear and quadratic associations.

PubMed

Prinstein, Mitchell J; Choukas-Bradley, Sophia C; Helms, Sarah W; Brechwald, Whitney A; Rancourt, Diana

2011-10-01

In contrast to prior work, recent theory suggests that high, not low, levels of adolescent peer popularity may be associated with health risk behavior. This study examined (a) whether popularity may be uniquely associated with cigarette use, marijuana use, and sexual risk behavior, beyond the predictive effects of aggression; (b) whether the longitudinal association between popularity and health risk behavior may be curvilinear; and (c) gender moderation. A total of 336 adolescents, initially in 10-11th grades, reported cigarette use, marijuana use, and number of sexual intercourse partners at two time points 18 months apart. Sociometric peer nominations were used to examine popularity and aggression. Longitudinal quadratic effects and gender moderation suggest that both high and low levels of popularity predict some, but not all, health risk behaviors. New theoretical models can be useful for understanding the complex manner in which health risk behaviors may be reinforced within the peer context.

Living in the shadow of terrorism: psychological distress and alcohol use among religious and non-religious adolescents in Jerusalem.

PubMed

Schiff, Miriam

2006-05-01

This study examines the effects of prolonged exposure to terrorism in 600 religious and non-religious Jewish adolescents living in Jerusalem, particularly post-traumatic stress (PTS) symptoms, depressive symptoms, alcohol use, coping strategies and social support. The youth in Jerusalem reported high exposure to terrorist acts. This exposure was associated with high PTS, depressive symptoms and alcohol use. Despite an apparently greater exposure to terrorism, religious adolescents reported lower levels of PTS and alcohol consumption, but similar levels of depressive symptoms to non-religious adolescents. Problem-solving coping predicted higher depressive symptoms for religious adolescents exposed to terrorism but not for similarly exposed non-religious adolescents. In contrast, emotion-focused coping predicted more alcohol consumption among highly exposed non-religious adolescents, while emotion-focused coping predicted more alcohol consumption among religious adolescents with low exposure. The overall findings suggest that religiosity may buffer the negative consequences of exposure in other ways than through coping or support.

Identification of the Best Anthropometric Predictors of Serum High- and Low-Density Lipoproteins Using Machine Learning.

PubMed

Lee, Bum Ju; Kim, Jong Yeol

2015-09-01

Serum high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels are associated with risk factors for various diseases and are related to anthropometric measures. However, controversy remains regarding the best anthropometric indicators of the HDL and LDL cholesterol levels. The objectives of this study were to identify the best predictors of HDL and LDL cholesterol using statistical analyses and two machine learning algorithms and to compare the predictive power of combined anthropometric measures in Korean adults. A total of 13,014 subjects participated in this study. The anthropometric measures were assessed with binary logistic regression (LR) to evaluate statistically significant differences between the subjects with normal and high LDL cholesterol levels and between the subjects with normal and low HDL cholesterol levels. LR and the naive Bayes algorithm (NB), which provides more reasonable and reliable results, were used in the analyses of the predictive power of individual and combined measures. The best predictor of HDL was the rib to hip ratio (p =< 0.0001; odds ratio (OR) = 1.895; area under curve (AUC) = 0.681) in women and the waist to hip ratio (WHR) (p =< 0.0001; OR = 1.624; AUC = 0.633) in men. In women, the strongest indicator of LDL was age (p =< 0.0001; OR = 1.662; AUC by NB = 0.653 ; AUC by LR = 0.636). Among the anthropometric measures, the body mass index (BMI), WHR, forehead to waist ratio, forehead to rib ratio, and forehead to chest ratio were the strongest predictors of LDL; these measures had similar predictive powers. The strongest predictor in men was BMI (p =< 0.0001; OR = 1.369; AUC by NB = 0.594; AUC by LR = 0.595 ). The predictive power of almost all individual anthropometric measures was higher for HDL than for LDL, and the predictive power for both HDL and LDL in women was higher than for men. A combination of anthropometric measures slightly improved the predictive power for both HDL and LDL cholesterol. The best indicator for HDL and LDL might differ according to the type of cholesterol and the gender. In women, but not men, age was the variable that strongly predicted HDL and LDL cholesterol levels. Our findings provide new information for the development of better initial screening tools for HDL and LDL cholesterol.

The effect of word prediction settings (frequency of use) on text input speed in persons with cervical spinal cord injury: a prospective study.

PubMed

Pouplin, Samuel; Roche, Nicolas; Antoine, Jean-Yves; Vaugier, Isabelle; Pottier, Sandra; Figere, Marjorie; Bensmail, Djamel

2017-06-01

To determine whether activation of the frequency of use and automatic learning parameters of word prediction software has an impact on text input speed. Forty-five participants with cervical spinal cord injury between C4 and C8 Asia A or B accepted to participate to this study. Participants were separated in two groups: a high lesion group for participants with lesion level is at or above C5 Asia AIS A or B and a low lesion group for participants with lesion is between C6 and C8 Asia AIS A or B. A single evaluation session was carried out for each participant. Text input speed was evaluated during three copying tasks: • without word prediction software (WITHOUT condition) • with automatic learning of words and frequency of use deactivated (NOT_ACTIV condition) • with automatic learning of words and frequency of use activated (ACTIV condition) Results: Text input speed was significantly higher in the WITHOUT than the NOT_ACTIV (p< 0.001) or ACTIV conditions (p = 0.02) for participants with low lesions. Text input speed was significantly higher in the ACTIV than in the NOT_ACTIV (p = 0.002) or WITHOUT (p < 0.001) conditions for participants with high lesions. Use of word prediction software with the activation of frequency of use and automatic learning increased text input speed in participants with high-level tetraplegia. For participants with low-level tetraplegia, the use of word prediction software with frequency of use and automatic learning activated only decreased the number of errors. Implications in rehabilitation   Access to technology can be difficult for persons with disabilities such as cervical spinal cord injury (SCI). Several methods have been developed to increase text input speed such as word prediction software.This study show that parameter of word prediction software (frequency of use) affected text input speed in persons with cervical SCI and differed according to the level of the lesion. • For persons with high-level lesion, our results suggest that this parameter must be activated so that text input speed is increased. • For persons with low lesion group, this parameter must be activated so that the numbers of errors are decreased. • In all cases, the activation of the parameter of frequency of use is essential in order to improve the efficiency of the word prediction software. • Health-related professionals should use these results in their clinical practice for better results and therefore better patients 'satisfaction.

Local environmental quality positively predicts breastfeeding in the UK’s Millennium Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Sear, Rebecca

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background and Objectives: Breastfeeding is an important form of parental investment with clear health benefits. Despite this, rates remain low in the UK; understanding variation can therefore help improve interventions. Life history theory suggests that environmental quality may pattern maternal investment, including breastfeeding. We analyse a nationally representative dataset to test two predictions: (i) higher local environmental quality predicts higher likelihood of breastfeeding initiation and longer duration; (ii) higher socioeconomic status (SES) provides a buffer against the adverse influences of low local environmental quality. Methodology: We ran factor analysis on a wide range of local-level environmental variables. Two summary measures of local environmental quality were generated by this analysis—one ‘objective’ (based on an independent assessor’s neighbourhood scores) and one ‘subjective’ (based on respondent’s scores). We used mixed-effects regression techniques to test our hypotheses. Results: Higher objective, but not subjective, local environmental quality predicts higher likelihood of starting and maintaining breastfeeding over and above individual SES and area-level measures of environmental quality. Higher individual SES is protective, with women from high-income households having relatively high breastfeeding initiation rates and those with high status jobs being more likely to maintain breastfeeding, even in poor environmental conditions. Conclusions and Implications: Environmental quality is often vaguely measured; here we present a thorough investigation of environmental quality at the local level, controlling for individual- and area-level measures. Our findings support a shift in focus away from individual factors and towards altering the landscape of women’s decision making contexts when considering behaviours relevant to public health. PMID:29354262

Experimental Determination and Prediction of the Fitness Effects of Random Point Mutations in the Biosynthetic Enzyme HisA

PubMed Central

Lundin, Erik; Tang, Po-Cheng; Guy, Lionel; Näsvall, Joakim; Andersson, Dan I

2018-01-01

Abstract The distribution of fitness effects of mutations is a factor of fundamental importance in evolutionary biology. We determined the distribution of fitness effects of 510 mutants that each carried between 1 and 10 mutations (synonymous and nonsynonymous) in the hisA gene, encoding an essential enzyme in the l-histidine biosynthesis pathway of Salmonella enterica. For the full set of mutants, the distribution was bimodal with many apparently neutral mutations and many lethal mutations. For a subset of 81 single, nonsynonymous mutants most mutations appeared neutral at high expression levels, whereas at low expression levels only a few mutations were neutral. Furthermore, we examined how the magnitude of the observed fitness effects was correlated to several measures of biophysical properties and phylogenetic conservation.We conclude that for HisA: (i) The effect of mutations can be masked by high expression levels, such that mutations that are deleterious to the function of the protein can still be neutral with regard to organism fitness if the protein is expressed at a sufficiently high level; (ii) the shape of the fitness distribution is dependent on the extent to which the protein is rate-limiting for growth; (iii) negative epistatic interactions, on an average, amplified the combined effect of nonsynonymous mutations; and (iv) no single sequence-based predictor could confidently predict the fitness effects of mutations in HisA, but a combination of multiple predictors could predict the effect with a SD of 0.04 resulting in 80% of the mutations predicted within 12% of their observed selection coefficients. PMID:29294020

Local environmental quality positively predicts breastfeeding in the UK's Millennium Cohort Study.

PubMed

Brown, Laura J; Sear, Rebecca

2017-01-01

Background and Objectives: Breastfeeding is an important form of parental investment with clear health benefits. Despite this, rates remain low in the UK; understanding variation can therefore help improve interventions. Life history theory suggests that environmental quality may pattern maternal investment, including breastfeeding. We analyse a nationally representative dataset to test two predictions: (i) higher local environmental quality predicts higher likelihood of breastfeeding initiation and longer duration; (ii) higher socioeconomic status (SES) provides a buffer against the adverse influences of low local environmental quality. Methodology: We ran factor analysis on a wide range of local-level environmental variables. Two summary measures of local environmental quality were generated by this analysis-one 'objective' (based on an independent assessor's neighbourhood scores) and one 'subjective' (based on respondent's scores). We used mixed-effects regression techniques to test our hypotheses. Results: Higher objective, but not subjective, local environmental quality predicts higher likelihood of starting and maintaining breastfeeding over and above individual SES and area-level measures of environmental quality. Higher individual SES is protective, with women from high-income households having relatively high breastfeeding initiation rates and those with high status jobs being more likely to maintain breastfeeding, even in poor environmental conditions. Conclusions and Implications: Environmental quality is often vaguely measured; here we present a thorough investigation of environmental quality at the local level, controlling for individual- and area-level measures. Our findings support a shift in focus away from individual factors and towards altering the landscape of women's decision making contexts when considering behaviours relevant to public health.

Increased serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is predictive of cocaine relapse outcomes: A prospective study

PubMed Central

D’Sa, Carrol; Fox, Helen C.; Hong, Adam K.; Dileone, Ralph J.; Sinha, Rajita

2011-01-01

Background Cocaine dependence is associated with high relapse rates but few biological markers associated with relapse outcomes have been identified. Extending preclinical research showing a role for central Brain Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) in cocaine seeking, we examined whether serum BDNF is altered in abstinent, early recovering, cocaine-dependent individuals and if it is predictive of subsequent relapse risk. Methods Serum samples were collected across three consecutive mornings from 35 treatment-engaged, 3 week abstinent cocaine-dependent inpatients (17M/18F) and 34 demographically matched hospitalized healthy control participants (17M/17F). Cocaine dependent individuals were prospectively followed on days 14, 30 and 90 post-treatment discharge to assess cocaine relapse outcomes. Time to cocaine relapse, number of days of cocaine use (frequency), and amount of cocaine use (quantity) were the main outcome measures. Results High correlations in serum BDNF across days indicated reliable and stable serum BDNF measurements. Significantly higher mean serum BDNF levels were observed for the cocaine-dependent patients compared to healthy control participants (p<.001). Higher serum BDNF levels predicted shorter subsequent time to cocaine relapse (hazard ratio: HR: 1.09, p<.05), greater number of days (p<.05) and higher total amounts of cocaine used (p = .05). Conclusions High serum BDNF levels in recovering cocaine-dependent individuals are predictive of future cocaine relapse outcomes and may represent a clinically relevant marker of relapse risk. These data suggest that serum BDNF levels may provide an indication of relapse risk during early recovery from cocaine dependence. PMID:21741029

Future Nuisance Flooding at Boston Caused by Astronomical Tides Alone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.; Foster, Grant

2016-01-01

Sea level rise necessarily triggers more occurrences of minor, or nuisance, flooding events along coastlines, a fact well documented in recent studies. At some locations nuisance flooding can be brought about merely by high spring tides, independent of storms, winds, or other atmospheric conditions. Analysis of observed water levels at Boston indicates that tidal flooding began to occur there in 2011 and will become more frequent in subsequent years. A compilation of all predicted nuisance-flooding events, induced by astronomical tides alone, is presented through year 2050. The accuracy of the tide prediction is improved when several unusual properties of Gulf of Maine tides, including secular changes, are properly accounted for. Future mean sea-level rise at Boston cannot be predicted with comparable confidence, so two very different climate scenarios are adopted; both predict a large increase in the frequency and the magnitude of tidal flooding events.

Systems analysis of apoptosis protein expression allows the case-specific prediction of cell death responsiveness of melanoma cells

PubMed Central

Passante, E; Würstle, M L; Hellwig, C T; Leverkus, M; Rehm, M

2013-01-01

Many cancer entities and their associated cell line models are highly heterogeneous in their responsiveness to apoptosis inducers and, despite a detailed understanding of the underlying signaling networks, cell death susceptibility currently cannot be predicted reliably from protein expression profiles. Here, we demonstrate that an integration of quantitative apoptosis protein expression data with pathway knowledge can predict the cell death responsiveness of melanoma cell lines. By a total of 612 measurements, we determined the absolute expression (nM) of 17 core apoptosis regulators in a panel of 11 melanoma cell lines, and enriched these data with systems-level information on apoptosis pathway topology. By applying multivariate statistical analysis and multi-dimensional pattern recognition algorithms, the responsiveness of individual cell lines to tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) or dacarbazine (DTIC) could be predicted with very high accuracy (91 and 82% correct predictions), and the most effective treatment option for individual cell lines could be pre-determined in silico. In contrast, cell death responsiveness was poorly predicted when not taking knowledge on protein–protein interactions into account (55 and 36% correct predictions). We also generated mathematical predictions on whether anti-apoptotic Bcl-2 family members or x-linked inhibitor of apoptosis protein (XIAP) can be targeted to enhance TRAIL responsiveness in individual cell lines. Subsequent experiments, making use of pharmacological Bcl-2/Bcl-xL inhibition or siRNA-based XIAP depletion, confirmed the accuracy of these predictions. We therefore demonstrate that cell death responsiveness to TRAIL or DTIC can be predicted reliably in a large number of melanoma cell lines when investigating expression patterns of apoptosis regulators in the context of their network-level interplay. The capacity to predict responsiveness at the cellular level may contribute to personalizing anti-cancer treatments in the future. PMID:23933815

Examination of Narcissistic Personality Traits' Predicting Level of Internet Addiction and Cyber Bullying through Path Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eksi, Fusun

2012-01-01

The main aim of this study is to find out to what extent do narcissistic personality traits predict internet addiction and cyber bullying in vocational high school students. For this study five hundred and eight vocational high school students (331 male students--66,2%, 169 female students 33,8% and 8 unstated [x-bar] 16,24) from Anatolian side of…

Trajectories of change in symptom distress in a clinical group of late adolescents: The role of maladaptive personality traits and relations with parents.

PubMed

Koster, Nagila; Laceulle, Odilia; van der Heijden, Paul; de Clercq, Barbara; van Aken, Marcel

2018-03-25

In this study, it was analysed whether trajectories of change in symptom distress could be identified in a clinical group of late adolescents with personality pathology. Furthermore, it was examined whether maladaptive personality traits and relations with parents were predictive of following one of these trajectories. Three latent classes emerged from growth mixture modelling with a symptom inventory (n = 911): a Stable High, a Strong Decreasing and a Moderate Decreasing trajectory. Subsequently, by using multinomial logistic regression analyses in a subsample of late-adolescents (n = 127), it was revealed that high levels of Negative Affectivity and Detachment were predictive of following the Strong Decreasing, and high levels of Detachment were predictive of following the Stable High trajectory. Support from or Negative Interactions with parents were not predictive of any of the trajectories. The current results contribute to the notion of individual trajectories of change in symptom distress and provide suggestions for screening patients on personality traits to gain insight in the course of this change. © 2018 The Authors Personality and Mental Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2018 The Authors Personality and Mental Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Hyperglycosylated human chorionic gonadotropin as an early predictor of pregnancy outcomes after in vitro fertilization.

PubMed

Chuan, Sandy; Homer, Michael; Pandian, Raj; Conway, Deirdre; Garzo, Gabriel; Yeo, Lisa; Su, H Irene

2014-02-01

To determine whether serum hyperglycosylated human chorionic gonadotropin (hhCG) measured as early as 9 days after egg retrieval can predict ongoing pregnancies after in vitro fertilization and fresh embryo transfer (IVF-ET). Cohort Academic assisted reproduction center. Consecutive patients undergoing IVF-ET INTERVENTION(S): Serum hhCG and hCG levels measured 9 (D9) and 16 (D16) days after egg retrieval Ongoing pregnancy beyond 9 weeks of gestation. Ongoing pregnancy (62 of 112 participants) was associated with higher D9 levels of hhCG and hCG. However, hhCG was detectable in all D9 OP samples, while hCG was detectable in only 22%. A D9 hhCG level of >110 pg/mL was 96% specific for an ongoing pregnancy, yielding a positive predictive value of 94%. Compared with the D9 hCG levels, hhCG was more sensitive and had a larger area under the curve (0.87 vs. 0.67, respectively). The diagnostic test characteristics were similar between the D16 hhCG and hCG levels. In patients undergoing assisted reproduction, a test to detect pregnancy early and predict outcomes is highly desirable, and hhCG is detectable in serum 9 days after egg retrieval IVF-ET cycles. In this early assessment, hhCG was superior to traditional hCG and highly predictive of ongoing pregnancies. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relationship between hypnosis and personality trait in participants with high or low hypnotic susceptibility

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yingchun; Wang, Yunke; Shen, Chanchan; Ye, Yingying; Shen, Si; Zhang, Bingren; Wang, Jiawei; Chen, Wei; Wang, Wei

2017-01-01

Background The relationship between normal personality and hypnotic susceptibility is important for understanding mental processing and mental disorders, but it is less consistent in normal people or in patients with a psychiatric disorder. We have hypothesized that the correlation exists but varies in individuals with different levels of hypnotizability. Participants and methods We invited 72 individuals with high (HIGH group) and 47 individuals with low (LOW group) hypnotic susceptibilities to undertake tests of NEO-PI-R and the Stanford Hypnotic Susceptibility Scale, Form C (SHSSC). Results The HIGH group scored significantly higher than the LOW group did on openness to experience and its facet openness to feelings. In the LOW group, SHSSC total was positively predicted by openness to ideas; age regression was positively predicted by openness to experience and negatively predicted by extraversion; anosmia to ammonia was negatively predicted by agreeableness; and negative visual hallucination was positively predicted by openness to experience. In the HIGH group, hallucinated voice was positively predicted by openness to experience and negatively predicted by agreeableness, and posthypnotic amnesia was positively predicted by extraversion and negatively predicted by openness to experience. Conclusion The associations between normal personality traits and hypnotic susceptibility items were weak and different in the two groups, which imply that managing mental or somatoform disorders might be through adjusting hypnotizability and mobilizing personality functions. PMID:28435270

Predicting Scientific Understanding of Prospective Elementary Teachers: Role of Gender, Education Level, Courses in Science, and Attitudes Toward Science and Mathematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, David D.; Morris, John D.

2005-12-01

A multiple regression analysis of the relationship between prospective teachers' scientific understanding and Gender, Education Level (High School, College), Courses in Science (Biology, Chemistry, Physics, Earth Science, Astronomy, and Agriculture), Attitude Towards Science, and Attitude Towards Mathematics is reported. Undergraduate elementary science students ( N = 176) in an urban doctoral-level university in the United States participated in this study. The results of this study showed Gender, completion of courses in High School Chemistry and Physics, College Chemistry and Physics, and Attitudes Toward Mathematics and Science significantly correlated with scientific understanding. Based on a regression model, Gender, and College Chemistry and Physics experiences added significant predictive accuracy to scientific understanding among prospective elementary teachers compared to the other variables.

Potential Population Consequences of Active Sonar Disturbance in Atlantic Herring: Estimating the Maximum Risk.

PubMed

Sivle, Lise Doksæter; Kvadsheim, Petter Helgevold; Ainslie, Michael

2016-01-01

Effects of noise on fish populations may be predicted by the population consequence of acoustic disturbance (PCAD) model. We have predicted the potential risk of population disturbance when the highest sound exposure level (SEL) at which adult herring do not respond to naval sonar (SEL(0)) is exceeded. When the population density is low (feeding), the risk is low even at high sonar source levels and long-duration exercises (>24 h). With densely packed populations (overwintering), a sonar exercise might expose the entire population to levels >SEL(0) within a 24-h exercise period. However, the disturbance will be short and the response threshold used here is highly conservative. It is therefore unlikely that naval sonar will significantly impact the herring population.

Dancing with the Muses: dissociation and flow.

PubMed

Thomson, Paula; Jaque, S Victoria

2012-01-01

This study investigated dissociative psychological processes and flow (dispositional and state) in a group of professional and pre-professional dancers (n=74). In this study, high scores for global (Mdn=4.14) and autotelic (Mdn=4.50) flow suggest that dancing was inherently integrating and rewarding, although 17.6% of the dancers were identified as possibly having clinical levels of dissociation (Dissociative Experiences Scale-Taxon cutoff score≥20). The results of the multivariate analysis of variance indicated that subjects with high levels of dissociation had significantly lower levels of global flow (p<.05). Stepwise linear regression analyses demonstrated that dispositional flow negatively predicted the dissociative constructs of depersonalization and taxon (p<.05) but did not significantly predict the variance in absorption/imagination (p>.05). As hypothesized, dissociation and flow seem to operate as different mental processes.

Poly-Omic Prediction of Complex Traits: OmicKriging

PubMed Central

Wheeler, Heather E.; Aquino-Michaels, Keston; Gamazon, Eric R.; Trubetskoy, Vassily V.; Dolan, M. Eileen; Huang, R. Stephanie; Cox, Nancy J.; Im, Hae Kyung

2014-01-01

High-confidence prediction of complex traits such as disease risk or drug response is an ultimate goal of personalized medicine. Although genome-wide association studies have discovered thousands of well-replicated polymorphisms associated with a broad spectrum of complex traits, the combined predictive power of these associations for any given trait is generally too low to be of clinical relevance. We propose a novel systems approach to complex trait prediction, which leverages and integrates similarity in genetic, transcriptomic, or other omics-level data. We translate the omic similarity into phenotypic similarity using a method called Kriging, commonly used in geostatistics and machine learning. Our method called OmicKriging emphasizes the use of a wide variety of systems-level data, such as those increasingly made available by comprehensive surveys of the genome, transcriptome, and epigenome, for complex trait prediction. Furthermore, our OmicKriging framework allows easy integration of prior information on the function of subsets of omics-level data from heterogeneous sources without the sometimes heavy computational burden of Bayesian approaches. Using seven disease datasets from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC), we show that OmicKriging allows simple integration of sparse and highly polygenic components yielding comparable performance at a fraction of the computing time of a recently published Bayesian sparse linear mixed model method. Using a cellular growth phenotype, we show that integrating mRNA and microRNA expression data substantially increases performance over either dataset alone. Using clinical statin response, we show improved prediction over existing methods. PMID:24799323

Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Risk Based on Multiple Longitudinal Biomarkers

PubMed Central

Yang, Lili; Yu, Menggang; Gao, Sujuan

2016-01-01

In the last decade, few topics in the area of cardiovascular disease (CVD) research have received as much attention as risk prediction. One of the well documented risk factors for CVD is high blood pressure (BP). Traditional CVD risk prediction models consider BP levels measured at a single time and such models form the basis for current clinical guidelines for CVD prevention. However, in clinical practice, BP levels are often observed and recorded in a longitudinal fashion. Information on BP trajectories can be powerful predictors for CVD events. We consider joint modeling of time to coronary artery disease and individual longitudinal measures of systolic and diastolic BPs in a primary care cohort with up to 20 years of follow-up. We applied novel prediction metrics to assess the predictive performance of joint models. Predictive performances of proposed joint models and other models were assessed via simulations and illustrated using the primary care cohort. PMID:26439685

Configuration and validation of a novel prostate disease nomogram predicting prostate biopsy outcome: A prospective study correlating clinical indicators among Filipino adult males with elevated PSA level.

PubMed

Chua, Michael E; Tanseco, Patrick P; Mendoza, Jonathan S; Castillo, Josefino C; Morales, Marcelino L; Luna, Saturnino L

2015-04-01

To configure and validate a novel prostate disease nomogram providing prostate biopsy outcome probabilities from a prospective study correlating clinical indicators and diagnostic parameters among Filipino adult male with elevated serum total prostate specific antigen (PSA) level. All men with an elevated serum total PSA underwent initial prostate biopsy at our institution from January 2011 to August 2014 were included. Clinical indicators, diagnostic parameters, which include PSA level and PSA-derivatives, were collected as predictive factors for biopsy outcome. Multiple logistic-regression analysis involving a backward elimination selection procedure was used to select independent predictors. A nomogram was developed to calculate the probability of the biopsy outcomes. External validation of the nomogram was performed using separate data set from another center for determination of sensitivity and specificity. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the accuracy in predicting differential biopsy outcome. Total of 552 patients was included. One hundred and ninety-one (34.6%) patients had benign prostatic hyperplasia, and 165 (29.9%) had chronic prostatitis. The remaining 196 (35.5%) patients had prostate adenocarcinoma. The significant independent variables used to predict biopsy outcome were age, family history of prostate cancer, prior antibiotic intake, PSA level, PSA-density, PSA-velocity, echogenic findings on ultrasound, and DRE status. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for prostate cancer using PSA alone and the nomogram were 0.688 and 0.804, respectively. The nomogram configured based on routinely available clinical parameters, provides high predictive accuracy with good performance characteristics in predicting the prostate biopsy outcome such as presence of prostate cancer, high Gleason prostate cancer, benign prostatic hyperplasia, and chronic prostatitis.

Evaluation of a childhood lead questionnaire in predicting elevated blood lead levels in a rural community.

PubMed

Muñiz, Marco A; Dundas, Robert; Mahoney, Martin C

2003-01-01

The accuracy of a lead screening questionnaire in predicting elevated blood lead levels was examined in a pediatric practice in a rural part of New York state. A retrospective chart review was used to collect data on children ages 9 to 24 months who presented for well-child visits. Children with both questionnaire and lead level results available in the chart were included in the study (n = 171). The mean blood lead level among all children was 1.6 microg/dl (median = 2.0 microg/dl, range 0 to 24 microg/dl). Four children (2.3%) had elevated lead levels (greater than 10 microg/dl), with levels for two of these children being greater than 20 microg/dl. Although our lead screening questionnaire was expanded from the standard 1991 CDC questionnaire by the inclusion of six additional items, it was not especially useful in predicting elevated blood lead levels above 10 microg/dl. However, the questionnaire exhibited some utility in predicting marked elevations in blood lead levels (over 20 microg/dl). Although results in other geographic areas might differ, the lead questionnaire may have value by enhancing parents' awareness of potential lead hazards in their children's environment and may prove to be more useful in areas of high risk to lead exposure.

Virtual Beach: Decision Support Tools for Beach Pathogen Prediction

EPA Science Inventory

The Virtual Beach Managers Tool (VB) is decision-making software developed to help local beach managers make decisions as to when beaches should be closed due to predicted high levels of water borne pathogens. The tool is being developed under the umbrella of EPA's Advanced Monit...

Integrating multiple molecular sources into a clinical risk prediction signature by extracting complementary information.

PubMed

Hieke, Stefanie; Benner, Axel; Schlenl, Richard F; Schumacher, Martin; Bullinger, Lars; Binder, Harald

2016-08-30

High-throughput technology allows for genome-wide measurements at different molecular levels for the same patient, e.g. single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and gene expression. Correspondingly, it might be beneficial to also integrate complementary information from different molecular levels when building multivariable risk prediction models for a clinical endpoint, such as treatment response or survival. Unfortunately, such a high-dimensional modeling task will often be complicated by a limited overlap of molecular measurements at different levels between patients, i.e. measurements from all molecular levels are available only for a smaller proportion of patients. We propose a sequential strategy for building clinical risk prediction models that integrate genome-wide measurements from two molecular levels in a complementary way. To deal with partial overlap, we develop an imputation approach that allows us to use all available data. This approach is investigated in two acute myeloid leukemia applications combining gene expression with either SNP or DNA methylation data. After obtaining a sparse risk prediction signature e.g. from SNP data, an automatically selected set of prognostic SNPs, by componentwise likelihood-based boosting, imputation is performed for the corresponding linear predictor by a linking model that incorporates e.g. gene expression measurements. The imputed linear predictor is then used for adjustment when building a prognostic signature from the gene expression data. For evaluation, we consider stability, as quantified by inclusion frequencies across resampling data sets. Despite an extremely small overlap in the application example with gene expression and SNPs, several genes are seen to be more stably identified when taking the (imputed) linear predictor from the SNP data into account. In the application with gene expression and DNA methylation, prediction performance with respect to survival also indicates that the proposed approach might work well. We consider imputation of linear predictor values to be a feasible and sensible approach for dealing with partial overlap in complementary integrative analysis of molecular measurements at different levels. More generally, these results indicate that a complementary strategy for integrating different molecular levels can result in more stable risk prediction signatures, potentially providing a more reliable insight into the underlying biology.

Predicting therapy outcome in patients with early and late obsessive-compulsive disorder (EOCD and LOCD).

PubMed

Langner, Judith; Laws, Manuela; Röper, Gisela; Zaudig, Michael; Hauke, Walter; Piesbergen, Christoph

2009-10-01

Increasing attention has been given to subtyping OCD with respect to different clinical profiles, response to drug treatments, comorbidity and age of onset. There are a number of studies looking at predictors of treatment outcome in OCD, but so far not for OCD subtypes. Prediction of outcome after cognitive-behavioural therapy was evaluated in 63 inpatients with early obsessive-compulsive disorder (EOCD < or = 12 years of age) and 191 patients with late obsessive-compulsive disorder (LOCD > 15 years of age). For EOCD patients factors predicting a good outcome included high motivation and high initial Y-BOCS scores. Factors associated with a bad outcome were higher age at assessment, a longer duration of psychiatric inpatient treatment before assessment and a low level of social functioning (BSS). For LOCD patients living in a stable relationship, high motivation and completing treatment predicted a favourable therapy outcome, while a low level of psychological functioning (BSS) and a longer duration of inpatient psychiatric treatment before assessment were associated with an undesirable therapy outcome. Subtyping OCD patients according to age of onset seems to be a promising avenue towards improving and developing more specified treatment programs.

Fine Particulate Matter Predictions Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Koutrakis, Petros; Kloog, Itai; Melly, Steven; Nordio, Francesco; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Jujie; Schwartz, Joel

2014-01-01

To date, spatial-temporal patterns of particulate matter (PM) within urban areas have primarily been examined using models. On the other hand, satellites extend spatial coverage but their spatial resolution is too coarse. In order to address this issue, here we report on spatial variability in PM levels derived from high 1 km resolution AOD product of Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm developed for MODIS satellite. We apply day-specific calibrations of AOD data to predict PM(sub 2.5) concentrations within the New England area of the United States. To improve the accuracy of our model, land use and meteorological variables were incorporated. We used inverse probability weighting (IPW) to account for nonrandom missingness of AOD and nested regions within days to capture spatial variation. With this approach we can control for the inherent day-to-day variability in the AOD-PM(sub 2.5) relationship, which depends on time-varying parameters such as particle optical properties, vertical and diurnal concentration profiles and ground surface reflectance among others. Out-of-sample "ten-fold" cross-validation was used to quantify the accuracy of model predictions. Our results show that the model-predicted PM(sub 2.5) mass concentrations are highly correlated with the actual observations, with out-of- sample R(sub 2) of 0.89. Furthermore, our study shows that the model captures the pollution levels along highways and many urban locations thereby extending our ability to investigate the spatial patterns of urban air quality, such as examining exposures in areas with high traffic. Our results also show high accuracy within the cities of Boston and New Haven thereby indicating that MAIAC data can be used to examine intra-urban exposure contrasts in PM(sub 2.5) levels.

Prostate cancer prediction using the random forest algorithm that takes into account transrectal ultrasound findings, age, and serum levels of prostate-specific antigen.

PubMed

Xiao, Li-Hong; Chen, Pei-Ran; Gou, Zhong-Ping; Li, Yong-Zhong; Li, Mei; Xiang, Liang-Cheng; Feng, Ping

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of the random forest algorithm that combines data on transrectal ultrasound findings, age, and serum levels of prostate-specific antigen to predict prostate carcinoma. Clinico-demographic data were analyzed for 941 patients with prostate diseases treated at our hospital, including age, serum prostate-specific antigen levels, transrectal ultrasound findings, and pathology diagnosis based on ultrasound-guided needle biopsy of the prostate. These data were compared between patients with and without prostate cancer using the Chi-square test, and then entered into the random forest model to predict diagnosis. Patients with and without prostate cancer differed significantly in age and serum prostate-specific antigen levels (P < 0.001), as well as in all transrectal ultrasound characteristics (P < 0.05) except uneven echo (P = 0.609). The random forest model based on age, prostate-specific antigen and ultrasound predicted prostate cancer with an accuracy of 83.10%, sensitivity of 65.64%, and specificity of 93.83%. Positive predictive value was 86.72%, and negative predictive value was 81.64%. By integrating age, prostate-specific antigen levels and transrectal ultrasound findings, the random forest algorithm shows better diagnostic performance for prostate cancer than either diagnostic indicator on its own. This algorithm may help improve diagnosis of the disease by identifying patients at high risk for biopsy.

When does self-esteem relate to deviant behavior? The role of contingencies of self-worth.

PubMed

Ferris, D Lance; Brown, Douglas J; Lian, Huiwen; Keeping, Lisa M

2009-09-01

Researchers have assumed that low self-esteem predicts deviance, but empirical results have been mixed. This article draws upon recent theoretical developments regarding contingencies of self-worth to clarify the self-esteem/deviance relation. It was predicted that self-esteem level would relate to deviance only when self-esteem was not contingent on workplace performance. In this manner, contingent self-esteem is a boundary condition for self-consistency/behavioral plasticity theory predictions. Using multisource data collected from 123 employees over 6 months, the authors examined the interaction between level (high/low) and type (contingent/noncontingent) of self-esteem in predicting workplace deviance. Results support the hypothesized moderating effects of contingent self-esteem; implications for self-esteem theories are discussed.

Ab Initio Reaction Kinetics of CH 3 O$$\\dot{C}$$(=O) and $$\\dot{C}$$H 2 OC(=O)H Radicals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tan, Ting; Yang, Xueliang; Ju, Yiguang

The dissociation and isomerization kinetics of the methyl ester combustion intermediates methoxycarbonyl radical (CH3Omore » $$\\dot{C}$$(=O)) and (formyloxy)methyl radical ($$\\dot{C}$$H2OC(=O)H) are investigated theoretically using high-level ab initio methods and Rice–Ramsperger–Kassel–Marcus (RRKM)/master equation (ME) theory. Geometries obtained at the hybrid density functional theory (DFT) and coupled cluster singles and doubles with perturbative triples correction (CCSD(T)) levels of theory are found to be similar. We employ high-level ab initio wave function methods to refine the potential energy surface: CCSD(T), multireference singles and doubles configuration interaction (MRSDCI) with the Davidson–Silver (DS) correction, and multireference averaged coupled-pair functional (MRACPF2) theory. MRSDCI+DS and MRACPF2 capture the multiconfigurational character of transition states (TSs) and predict lower barrier heights than CCSD(T). The temperature- and pressure-dependent rate coefficients are computed using RRKM/ME theory in the temperature range 300–2500 K and a pressure range of 0.01 atm to the high-pressure limit, which are then fitted to modified Arrhenius expressions. Dissociation of CH3O$$\\dot{C}$$(=O) to $$\\dot{C}$$H3 and CO2 is predicted to be much faster than dissociating to CH3$$\\dot{O}$$ and CO, consistent with its greater exothermicity. Isomerization between CH3O$$\\dot{C}$$(=O) and $$\\dot{C}$$H2OC(=O)H is predicted to be the slowest among the studied reactions and rarely happens even at high temperature and high pressure, suggesting the decomposition pathways of the two radicals are not strongly coupled. The predicted rate coefficients and branching fractions at finite pressures differ significantly from the corresponding high-pressure-limit results, especially at relatively high temperatures. Finally, because it is one of the most important CH3$$\\dot{O}$$ removal mechanisms under atmospheric conditions, the reaction kinetics of CH3$$\\dot{O}$$ + CO was also studied along the PES of CH3O$$\\dot{C}$$(=O); the resulting kinetics predictions are in remarkable agreement with experiments.« less

Coupling centennial-scale shoreline change to sea-level rise and coastal morphology in the Gulf of Mexico using a Bayesian network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.

2016-01-01

Predictions of coastal evolution driven by episodic and persistent processes associated with storms and relative sea-level rise (SLR) are required to test our understanding, evaluate our predictive capability, and to provide guidance for coastal management decisions. Previous work demonstrated that the spatial variability of long-term shoreline change can be predicted using observed SLR rates, tide range, wave height, coastal slope, and a characterization of the geomorphic setting. The shoreline is not suf- ficient to indicate which processes are important in causing shoreline change, such as overwash that depends on coastal dune elevations. Predicting dune height is intrinsically important to assess future storm vulnerability. Here, we enhance shoreline-change predictions by including dune height as a vari- able in a statistical modeling approach. Dune height can also be used as an input variable, but it does not improve the shoreline-change prediction skill. Dune-height input does help to reduce prediction uncer- tainty. That is, by including dune height, the prediction is more precise but not more accurate. Comparing hindcast evaluations, better predictive skill was found when predicting dune height (0.8) compared with shoreline change (0.6). The skill depends on the level of detail of the model and we identify an optimized model that has high skill and minimal overfitting. The predictive model can be implemented with a range of forecast scenarios, and we illustrate the impacts of a higher future sea-level. This scenario shows that the shoreline change becomes increasingly erosional and more uncertain. Predicted dune heights are lower and the dune height uncertainty decreases.

TH and DCX mRNAs in peripheral blood and bone marrow predict outcome in metastatic neuroblastoma patients.

PubMed

Yáñez, Yania; Hervás, David; Grau, Elena; Oltra, Silvestre; Pérez, Gema; Palanca, Sarai; Bermúdez, Mar; Márquez, Catalina; Cañete, Adela; Castel, Victoria

2016-03-01

In metastatic neuroblastoma (NB) patients, accurate risk stratification and disease monitoring would reduce relapse probabilities. This study aims to evaluate the independent prognostic significance of detecting tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) and doublecortin (DCX) mRNAs by reverse transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) in peripheral blood (PB) and bone marrow (BM) samples from metastatic NB patients. RT-qPCR was performed on PB and BM samples from metastatic NB patients at diagnosis, post-induction therapy and at the end of treatment for TH and DCX mRNAs detection. High levels of TH and DCX mRNAs when detected in PB and BM at diagnosis independently predicted worse outcome in a cohort of 162 metastatic NB. In the subgroup of high-risk metastatic NB, TH mRNA detected in PB remained as independent predictor of EFS and OS at diagnosis. After the induction therapy, high levels of TH mRNA in PB and DCX mRNA in BM independently predicted poor EFS and OS. Furthermore TH mRNA when detected in BM predicted worse EFS. TH mRNA in PB samples at the end of treatment is an independent predictor of worse outcome. TH and DCX mRNAs levels in PB and BM assessed by RT-qPCR should be considered in new pre-treatment risk stratification strategies to reliable estimate outcome differences in metastatic NB patients. In those high-risk metastatic NB, TH and DCX mRNA quantification could be used for the assessment of response to treatment and for early detection of progressive disease or relapses.

Predictors of participation in sports after hip and knee arthroplasty.

PubMed

Williams, Daniel H; Greidanus, Nelson V; Masri, Bassam A; Duncan, Clive P; Garbuz, Donald S

2012-02-01

While the primary objective of joint arthroplasty is to improve patient quality of life, pain, and function, younger active patients often demand a return to higher function that includes sporting activity. Knowledge of rates and predictors of return to sports will help inform expectations in patients anticipating return to sports after joint arthroplasty. We measured the rate of sports participation at 1 year using the UCLA activity score and explored 11 variables, including choice of procedure/prosthesis, that might predict return to a high level of sporting activity, when controlling for potential confounding variables. We retrospectively evaluated 736 patients who underwent primary metal-on-polyethylene THA, metal-on-metal THA, hip resurfacing arthroplasty, revision THA, primary TKA, unicompartmental knee arthroplasty, and revision TKA between May 2005 and June 2007. We obtained UCLA activity scores on all patients; we defined high activity as a UCLA score of 7 or more. We evaluated patient demographics (age, sex, BMI, comorbidity), quality of life (WOMAC score, Oxford Hip Score, SF-12 score), and surgeon- and procedural/implant-specific variables to identify factors associated with postoperative activity score. Minimum followup was 11 months (mean, 12.1 months; range, 11-13 months). Preoperative UCLA activity score, age, male sex, and BMI predicted high activity scores. The type of operation and implant characteristics did not predict return to high activity sports. Our data suggest patient-specific factors predict postoperative activity rather than factors specific to type of surgery, implant, or surgeon factors. Level II, prognostic study. See the Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Identifying and predicting subgroups of information needs among cancer patients: an initial study using latent class analysis.

PubMed

Neumann, Melanie; Wirtz, Markus; Ernstmann, Nicole; Ommen, Oliver; Längler, Alfred; Edelhäuser, Friedrich; Scheffer, Christian; Tauschel, Diethard; Pfaff, Holger

2011-08-01

Understanding how the information needs of cancer patients (CaPts) vary is important because met information needs affect health outcomes and CaPts' satisfaction. The goals of the study were to identify subgroups of CaPts based on self-reported cancer- and treatment-related information needs and to determine whether subgroups could be predicted on the basis of selected sociodemographic, clinical and clinician-patient relationship variables. Three hundred twenty-three CaPts participated in a survey using the "Cancer Patients Information Needs" scale, which is a new tool for measuring cancer-related information needs. The number of information need subgroups and need profiles within each subgroup was identified using latent class analysis (LCA). Multinomial logistic regression was applied to predict class membership. LCA identified a model of five subgroups exhibiting differences in type and extent of CaPts' unmet information needs: a subgroup with "no unmet needs" (31.4% of the sample), two subgroups with "high level of psychosocial unmet information needs" (27.0% and 12.0%), a subgroup with "high level of purely medical unmet information needs" (16.0%) and a subgroup with "high level of medical and psychosocial unmet information needs" (13.6%). An assessment of sociodemographic and clinical characteristics revealed that younger CaPts and CaPts' requiring psychological support seem to belong to subgroups with a higher level of unmet information needs. However, the most significant predictor for the subgroups with unmet information needs is a good clinician-patient relationship, i.e. subjective perception of high level of trust in and caring attention from nurses together with high degree of physician empathy seems to be predictive for inclusion in the subgroup with no unmet information needs. The results of our study can be used by oncology nurses and physicians to increase their awareness of the complexity and heterogeneity of information needs among CaPts and of clinically significant subgroups of CaPts. Moreover, regression analyses indicate the following association: Nurses and physicians seem to be able to reduce CaPts' unmet information needs by establishing a relationship with the patient, which is trusting, caring and empathic.

[Predicting individual risk of high healthcare cost to identify complex chronic patients].

PubMed

Coderch, Jordi; Sánchez-Pérez, Inma; Ibern, Pere; Carreras, Marc; Pérez-Berruezo, Xavier; Inoriza, José M

2014-01-01

To develop a predictive model for the risk of high consumption of healthcare resources, and assess the ability of the model to identify complex chronic patients. A cross-sectional study was performed within a healthcare management organization by using individual data from 2 consecutive years (88,795 people). The dependent variable consisted of healthcare costs above the 95th percentile (P95), including all services provided by the organization and pharmaceutical consumption outside of the institution. The predictive variables were age, sex, morbidity-based on clinical risk groups (CRG)-and selected data from previous utilization (use of hospitalization, use of high-cost drugs in ambulatory care, pharmaceutical expenditure). A univariate descriptive analysis was performed. We constructed a logistic regression model with a 95% confidence level and analyzed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPV), and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Individuals incurring costs >P95 accumulated 44% of total healthcare costs and were concentrated in ACRG3 (aggregated CRG level 3) categories related to multiple chronic diseases. All variables were statistically significant except for sex. The model had a sensitivity of 48.4% (CI: 46.9%-49.8%), specificity of 97.2% (CI: 97.0%-97.3%), PPV of 46.5% (CI: 45.0%-47.9%), and an AUC of 0.897 (CI: 0.892 to 0.902). High consumption of healthcare resources is associated with complex chronic morbidity. A model based on age, morbidity, and prior utilization is able to predict high-cost risk and identify a target population requiring proactive care. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal associations between emotion regulation and depression in preadolescent girls: moderation by the caregiving environment.

PubMed

Feng, Xin; Keenan, Kate; Hipwell, Alison E; Henneberger, Angela K; Rischall, Michal S; Butch, Jen; Coyne, Claire; Boeldt, Debbie; Hinze, Amanda K; Babinski, Dara E

2009-05-01

Identifying childhood precursors for depression has been challenging and yet important for understanding the rapid increase in the rate of depression among adolescent girls. This study examined the prospective relations of preadolescent girls' emotion regulation and parenting style with depressive symptoms. Participants were 225 children and their biological mothers recruited from a larger longitudinal community study. Girls' observed positive and negative emotion during a conflict resolution task with mothers, their ability to regulate sadness and anger, and their perception of parental acceptance and psychological control were assessed at age 9. Depressive symptoms were assessed by self-report at ages 9 and 10. The results indicated interactions between child emotion characteristics and parenting in predicting later depression. Specifically, low levels of positive emotion expression predicted higher levels of depressive symptoms in the context of moderate to high parental psychological control. Low levels of sadness regulation were predictive of high levels of depressive symptoms in the context of low to moderate parental acceptance. Findings from this study support the hypothesis that the prospective association between vulnerabilities in emotion regulation and depression are moderated by the caregiving environment. Copyright 2009 APA, all rights reserved

Role of community tolerance level (CTL) in predicting the prevalence of the annoyance of road and rail noise.

PubMed

Schomer, Paul; Mestre, Vincent; Fidell, Sanford; Berry, Bernard; Gjestland, Truls; Vallet, Michel; Reid, Timothy

2012-04-01

Fidell et al. [(2011), J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 130(2), 791-806] have shown (1) that the rate of growth of annoyance with noise exposure reported in attitudinal surveys of the annoyance of aircraft noise closely resembles the exponential rate of change of loudness with sound level, and (2) that the proportion of a community highly annoyed and the variability in annoyance prevalence rates in communities are well accounted for by a simple model with a single free parameter: a community tolerance level (abbreviated CTL, and represented symbolically in mathematical expressions as L(ct)), expressed in units of DNL. The current study applies the same modeling approach to predicting the prevalence of annoyance of road traffic and rail noise. The prevalence of noise-induced annoyance of all forms of transportation noise is well accounted for by a simple, loudness-like exponential function with community-specific offsets. The model fits all of the road traffic findings well, but the prevalence of annoyance due to rail noise is more accurately predicted separately for interviewing sites with and without high levels of vibration and/or rattle.

Digital shoreline analysis system-based change detection along the highly eroding Krishna-Godavari delta front

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallepalli, Akhil; Kakani, Nageswara Rao; James, David B.; Richardson, Mark A.

2017-07-01

Coastal regions are highly vulnerable to rising sea levels due to global warming. Previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) predictions of 26 to 82 cm global sea level rise are now considered conservative. Subsequent investigations predict much higher levels which would displace 10% of the world's population living less than 10 m above sea level. Remote sensing and GIS technologies form the mainstay of models on coastal retreat and inundation to future sea-level rise. This study estimates the varying trends along the Krishna-Godavari (K-G) delta region. The rate of shoreline shift along the 330-km long K-G delta coast was estimated using satellite images between 1977 and 2008. With reference to a selected baseline from along an inland position, end point rate and net shoreline movement were calculated using a GIS-based digital shoreline analysis system. The results indicated a net loss of about 42.1 km2 area during this 31-year period, which is in agreement with previous literature. Considering the nature of landforms and EPR, the future hazard line (or coastline) is predicted for the area; the predication indicates a net erosion of about 57.6 km2 along the K-G delta coast by 2050 AD.

Academic and non-academic predictors of success on the Nottingham undergraduate medical course 1970-1995.

PubMed

James, D; Chilvers, C

2001-11-01

To identify academic and non-academic predictors of success of entrants to the Nottingham medical course over the first 25 completed years of the course's existence. SETTING, DESIGN AND MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Retrospective study of academic and non-academic characteristics of 2270 entrants between 1970 and 1990, and their subsequent success. Analyses were undertaken of two cohorts (entrants between 1970 and 1985 and entrants between 1986 and 1990). Overall, 148 of 2270 (6.5%) entrants left the course, with the highest proportion being from the first 6 years (10.7%). Of the 148 leavers, 58 (39.2%) did so after obtaining their BMedSci degree. Concerning non-academic factors, in the 1970-85 cohort, applicants from the later years and those not taking a year out were more successful. However, these two factors had no influence on outcome in 1986-90. In contrast, ethnicity and gender were highly significant predictors of success in obtaining honours at BMBS in 1986-90 but at no other exam nor in the earlier years. Older, mature or graduate entrants were more successful at obtaining a first-class degree at BMedSci for the whole 21 years. However, they were less likely to be successful at passing the BMBS. With regard to academic factors, overall, A grades at Ordinary level/General Certificate of Secondary Education (O-Level/GCSE) were inconsistent independent predictors of success. However, for 1986-90, high grades at O-Level/GCSE chemistry and biology were strong independent predictors of success at BMedSci and BMBS. Very few Advanced level (A-Level) criteria were independent predictors of success for 1970-85. In contrast, for 1986-90 entrants, achieving a high grade at A-Level chemistry predicted success at obtaining a first-class degree at BMedSci, and a high grade at A-Level biology predicted success at BMBS. Over the 21 years, the majority of entrants achieved significantly lower grades at A-Level than predicted. General Studies A-Level was a poor predictor of achievement. On balance our current GCSE A-grade requirements should remain. Biology should be added to Chemistry as a compulsory A-Level subject. If predicted A-Level grades are borderline then the lower estimate should be used. General Studies should continue not to be used in selection. Performance of more recent mature entrants at BMBS needs further study. The recent gender and ethnic biases in obtaining honours at BMBS is currently being examined. The motivation of applicants planning to take deferred entry should be carefully explored at interview.

Predictors and correlates of high levels of depression and anxiety symptoms among children at age 10.

PubMed

Leech, Sharon L; Larkby, Cynthia A; Day, Richard; Day, Nancy L

2006-02-01

To identify factors that predict or are correlated with symptoms of depression and anxiety in 10-year-olds. Women and their offspring were followed from the fourth prenatal month through 10 years. There were 636 mother-child pairs at 10 years, a follow-up rate of 83% of the birth cohort. Cognitive, psychological, sociodemographic, and environmental factors were measured at each phase. High depression and anxiety were defined as having a number of symptoms >1 SD above the mean for each measure. These measures were combined to represent high depression and/or anxiety (D/A) at 10 years of age. Predictors from the prenatal period of D/A at 10 years were more maternal depression symptoms, African American race, less social support, greater household density, and prenatal marijuana exposure. From 18 months through 6 years, lower child IQ, child injuries at age 3, and attention problems predicted symptoms of D/A at age 10. Across all study phases, lower child IQ, household density during pregnancy, attention problems, early childhood injuries, and prenatal marijuana exposure predicted D/A. Maternal psychological and sociodemographic factors were not significant in the final model. Factors from gestation and early childhood predict high symptom levels of depression and anxiety at age 10. When gestational exposure, early environmental factors, and child characteristics were considered, maternal depression and socioeconomic status were not significantly associated with early onset D/A. Marijuana exposure during gestation marginally predicted depression/anxiety at age 10.

deepNF: Deep network fusion for protein function prediction.

PubMed

Gligorijevic, Vladimir; Barot, Meet; Bonneau, Richard

2018-06-01

The prevalence of high-throughput experimental methods has resulted in an abundance of large-scale molecular and functional interaction networks. The connectivity of these networks provides a rich source of information for inferring functional annotations for genes and proteins. An important challenge has been to develop methods for combining these heterogeneous networks to extract useful protein feature representations for function prediction. Most of the existing approaches for network integration use shallow models that encounter difficulty in capturing complex and highly-nonlinear network structures. Thus, we propose deepNF, a network fusion method based on Multimodal Deep Autoencoders to extract high-level features of proteins from multiple heterogeneous interaction networks. We apply this method to combine STRING networks to construct a common low-dimensional representation containing high-level protein features. We use separate layers for different network types in the early stages of the multimodal autoencoder, later connecting all the layers into a single bottleneck layer from which we extract features to predict protein function. We compare the cross-validation and temporal holdout predictive performance of our method with state-of-the-art methods, including the recently proposed method Mashup. Our results show that our method outperforms previous methods for both human and yeast STRING networks. We also show substantial improvement in the performance of our method in predicting GO terms of varying type and specificity. deepNF is freely available at: https://github.com/VGligorijevic/deepNF. vgligorijevic@flatironinstitute.org, rb133@nyu.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Relation between pretransplant serum levels of soluble CD30 and acute rejection during the first 6 months after a kidney transplant.

PubMed

Shooshtarizadeh, Tina; Mohammadali, Ali; Ossareh, Shahrzad; Ataipour, Yousef

2013-06-01

The immunologic status of kidney allograft recipients affects transplant outcome. High levels of pretransplant serum soluble CD30 correlate with an increased risk of acute rejection. Studies show conflicting results. We evaluated the relation between pretransplant serum sCD30 levels with the risk of posttransplant acute kidney rejection in renal transplant recipients. This prospective cohort study was performed between March 2010 and March 2011 on 77 kidney transplant recipients (53 men [68.8%], 24 women [31.2%]; mean age, 41 ± 14 y). Serum samples were collected 24 hours before transplant and analyzed for soluble CD30 levels by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Patients were followed for 6 months after transplant. Acute biopsy-proven rejection episodes were recorded, serum creatinine levels were measured, and glomerular filtration rates were calculated at the first and sixth months after transplant. Preoperative serum soluble CD30 levels were compared in patients with and without rejection. The mean pretransplant serum soluble CD30 level was 92.1 ± 47.3 ng/mL. At 6 months' follow-up, 10 patients experienced acute rejection. Mean pretransplant soluble CD30 levels were 128.5 ± 84 ng/mL versus 86.7 ± 37 ng/mL in patients with and without acute rejection episodes (P = .008). At 100 ng/mL, the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of pretransplant serum soluble CD30 level to predict acute rejection were 70%, 73.6%, 29.1%, and 94.3%. We showed a significant relation between pretransplant serum soluble CD30 levels and acute allograft rejection. High pretransplant levels of serum soluble CD30 can be a risk factor for kidney transplant rejection, and its high negative predictive value at various cutoffs make it useful to find candidates with a low risk of acute rejection after transplant.

Probabilistic micromechanics for metal matrix composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engelstad, S. P.; Reddy, J. N.; Hopkins, Dale A.

A probabilistic micromechanics-based nonlinear analysis procedure is developed to predict and quantify the variability in the properties of high temperature metal matrix composites. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the probabilistic distributions of the constituent level properties including fiber, matrix, and interphase properties, volume and void ratios, strengths, fiber misalignment, and nonlinear empirical parameters. The procedure predicts the resultant ply properties and quantifies their statistical scatter. Graphite copper and Silicon Carbide Titanlum Aluminide (SCS-6 TI15) unidirectional plies are considered to demonstrate the predictive capabilities. The procedure is believed to have a high potential for use in material characterization and selection to precede and assist in experimental studies of new high temperature metal matrix composites.

Lip-reading aids word recognition most in moderate noise: a Bayesian explanation using high-dimensional feature space.

PubMed

Ma, Wei Ji; Zhou, Xiang; Ross, Lars A; Foxe, John J; Parra, Lucas C

2009-01-01

Watching a speaker's facial movements can dramatically enhance our ability to comprehend words, especially in noisy environments. From a general doctrine of combining information from different sensory modalities (the principle of inverse effectiveness), one would expect that the visual signals would be most effective at the highest levels of auditory noise. In contrast, we find, in accord with a recent paper, that visual information improves performance more at intermediate levels of auditory noise than at the highest levels, and we show that a novel visual stimulus containing only temporal information does the same. We present a Bayesian model of optimal cue integration that can explain these conflicts. In this model, words are regarded as points in a multidimensional space and word recognition is a probabilistic inference process. When the dimensionality of the feature space is low, the Bayesian model predicts inverse effectiveness; when the dimensionality is high, the enhancement is maximal at intermediate auditory noise levels. When the auditory and visual stimuli differ slightly in high noise, the model makes a counterintuitive prediction: as sound quality increases, the proportion of reported words corresponding to the visual stimulus should first increase and then decrease. We confirm this prediction in a behavioral experiment. We conclude that auditory-visual speech perception obeys the same notion of optimality previously observed only for simple multisensory stimuli.

Corticosterone mediated costs of reproduction link current to future breeding.

PubMed

Crossin, Glenn T; Phillips, Richard A; Lattin, Christine R; Romero, L Michael; Williams, Tony D

2013-11-01

Life-history theory predicts that costs are associated with reproduction. One possible mediator of costs involves the secretion of glucocorticoid hormones, which in birds can be measured in feathers grown during the breeding period. Glucocorticoids mediate physiological responses to unpredictable environmental or other stressors, but they can also function as metabolic regulators during more predictable events such as reproduction. Here we show that corticosterone ("Cort") in feathers grown during the breeding season reflects reproductive effort in two Antarctic seabird species (giant petrels, Macronectes spp.). In females of both species, but not males, feather Cort ("fCort") was nearly 1.5-fold higher in successful than failed breeders (those that lost their eggs/chicks), suggesting a cost of successful reproduction, i.e., high fCort levels in females reflect the elevated plasma Cort levels required to support high metabolic demands of chick-rearing. Successful breeding also led to delayed moult prior to winter migration. The fCort levels and pre-migration moult score that we measured at the end of current breeding were predictive of subsequent reproductive effort in the following year. Birds with high fCort and a delayed initiation of moult were much more likely to defer breeding in the following year. Cort levels and the timing of moult thus provide a potential mechanism for the tradeoff between current and future reproduction. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DeepMirTar: a deep-learning approach for predicting human miRNA targets.

PubMed

Wen, Ming; Cong, Peisheng; Zhang, Zhimin; Lu, Hongmei; Li, Tonghua

2018-06-01

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small noncoding RNAs that function in RNA silencing and post-transcriptional regulation of gene expression by targeting messenger RNAs (mRNAs). Because the underlying mechanisms associated with miRNA binding to mRNA are not fully understood, a major challenge of miRNA studies involves the identification of miRNA-target sites on mRNA. In silico prediction of miRNA-target sites can expedite costly and time-consuming experimental work by providing the most promising miRNA-target-site candidates. In this study, we reported the design and implementation of DeepMirTar, a deep-learning-based approach for accurately predicting human miRNA targets at the site level. The predicted miRNA-target sites are those having canonical or non-canonical seed, and features, including high-level expert-designed, low-level expert-designed, and raw-data-level, were used to represent the miRNA-target site. Comparison with other state-of-the-art machine-learning methods and existing miRNA-target-prediction tools indicated that DeepMirTar improved overall predictive performance. DeepMirTar is freely available at https://github.com/Bjoux2/DeepMirTar_SdA. lith@tongji.edu.cn, hongmeilu@csu.edu.cn. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Assessing the Driver’s Current Level of Working Memory Load with High Density Functional Near-infrared Spectroscopy: A Realistic Driving Simulator Study

PubMed Central

Unni, Anirudh; Ihme, Klas; Jipp, Meike; Rieger, Jochem W.

2017-01-01

Cognitive overload or underload results in a decrease in human performance which may result in fatal incidents while driving. We envision that driver assistive systems which adapt their functionality to the driver’s cognitive state could be a promising approach to reduce road accidents due to human errors. This research attempts to predict variations of cognitive working memory load levels in a natural driving scenario with multiple parallel tasks and to reveal predictive brain areas. We used a modified version of the n-back task to induce five different working memory load levels (from 0-back up to 4-back) forcing the participants to continuously update, memorize, and recall the previous ‘n’ speed sequences and adjust their speed accordingly while they drove for approximately 60 min on a highway with concurrent traffic in a virtual reality driving simulator. We measured brain activation using multichannel whole head, high density functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) and predicted working memory load level from the fNIRS data by combining multivariate lasso regression and cross-validation. This allowed us to predict variations in working memory load in a continuous time-resolved manner with mean Pearson correlations between induced and predicted working memory load over 15 participants of 0.61 [standard error (SE) 0.04] and a maximum of 0.8. Restricting the analysis to prefrontal sensors placed over the forehead reduced the mean correlation to 0.38 (SE 0.04), indicating additional information gained through whole head coverage. Moreover, working memory load predictions derived from peripheral heart rate parameters achieved much lower correlations (mean 0.21, SE 0.1). Importantly, whole head fNIRS sampling revealed increasing brain activation in bilateral inferior frontal and bilateral temporo-occipital brain areas with increasing working memory load levels suggesting that these areas are specifically involved in workload-related processing. PMID:28424602

Assessing the Driver's Current Level of Working Memory Load with High Density Functional Near-infrared Spectroscopy: A Realistic Driving Simulator Study.

PubMed

Unni, Anirudh; Ihme, Klas; Jipp, Meike; Rieger, Jochem W

2017-01-01

Cognitive overload or underload results in a decrease in human performance which may result in fatal incidents while driving. We envision that driver assistive systems which adapt their functionality to the driver's cognitive state could be a promising approach to reduce road accidents due to human errors. This research attempts to predict variations of cognitive working memory load levels in a natural driving scenario with multiple parallel tasks and to reveal predictive brain areas. We used a modified version of the n-back task to induce five different working memory load levels (from 0-back up to 4-back) forcing the participants to continuously update, memorize, and recall the previous 'n' speed sequences and adjust their speed accordingly while they drove for approximately 60 min on a highway with concurrent traffic in a virtual reality driving simulator. We measured brain activation using multichannel whole head, high density functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) and predicted working memory load level from the fNIRS data by combining multivariate lasso regression and cross-validation. This allowed us to predict variations in working memory load in a continuous time-resolved manner with mean Pearson correlations between induced and predicted working memory load over 15 participants of 0.61 [standard error (SE) 0.04] and a maximum of 0.8. Restricting the analysis to prefrontal sensors placed over the forehead reduced the mean correlation to 0.38 (SE 0.04), indicating additional information gained through whole head coverage. Moreover, working memory load predictions derived from peripheral heart rate parameters achieved much lower correlations (mean 0.21, SE 0.1). Importantly, whole head fNIRS sampling revealed increasing brain activation in bilateral inferior frontal and bilateral temporo-occipital brain areas with increasing working memory load levels suggesting that these areas are specifically involved in workload-related processing.

Correlates of Inquiry Learning in Science: Constructing Concepts of Density and Buoyancy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mastropieri, Margo A.; Scruggs, Thomas E.; Boon, Richard; Carter, Karen Butcher

2001-01-01

A study involving 75 elementary students, 51 with high-incidence disabilities, investigated variables associated with learning in an inquiry-oriented approach to the study of density and buoyancy. Preconceptions, scientific predictions, and academic achievement measures were not predictive of task performance. However, grade level and IQ were…

Children's Goals and Strategies in Response to Conflicts within a Friendship.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rose, Amanda J.; Asher, Steven R.

1999-01-01

Examined whether fourth- and fifth-grade children's social goals and strategies in friendship conflict situations are predictive of their friendship adjustment, after accounting for level of peer acceptance. Found that children's goals were highly related to their strategies and that children's goals and strategies were predictive of their…

Analysis of satellite measurements of terrestrial radio noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bakalyar, G.; Caruso, J. A.; Vargas-Vila, R.; Ziemba, E.

1974-01-01

Worldwide distributions of terrestrial radio noise as monitored by Radio Astronomy Explorer 1 (RAE 1) generated and compared with CCIR predictions. These contour maps show the global morphology of radio noise at 6.55 and 9.18 MHz for fall, winter, spring and summer during the local time blocks of 00-08 LT and 16-24 LT. These computer produced maps show general agreement with CCIR predictions over large land masses. The RAE and CCIR maps diverge at high latitudes over Asia and frequently over ocean regions. Higher noise levels observed by RAE at high latitudes are attributed to magnetospheric emission while higher noise levels observed by RAE over Asia are attributable to high power transmitters. Analysis of RAE noise observations in conjunction with various geophysical phenomena showed no obvious correlation.

Decreased levels of sRAGE in follicular fluid from patients with PCOS.

PubMed

Wang, BiJun; Li, Jing; Yang, QingLing; Zhang, FuLi; Hao, MengMeng; Guo, YiHong

2017-03-01

This study aimed to explore the association between soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products (sRAGE) levels in follicular fluid and the number of oocytes retrieved and to evaluate the effect of sRAGE on vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in granulosa cells in patients with polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS). Two sets of experiments were performed in this study. In part one, sRAGE and VEGF protein levels in follicular fluid samples from 39 patients with PCOS and 35 non-PCOS patients were measured by ELISA. In part two, ovarian granulosa cells were isolated from an additional 10 patients with PCOS and cultured. VEGF and SP1 mRNA and protein levels, as well as pAKT levels, were detected by real-time PCR and Western blotting after cultured cells were treated with different concentrations of sRAGE. Compared with the non-PCOS patients, patients with PCOS had lower sRAGE levels in follicular fluid. Multi-adjusted regression analysis showed that high sRAGE levels in follicular fluid predicted a lower Gn dose, more oocytes retrieved, and a better IVF outcome in the non-PCOS group. Logistic regression analysis showed that higher sRAGE levels predicted favorably IVF outcomes in the non-PCOS group. Multi-adjusted regression analysis also showed that high sRAGE levels in follicular fluid predicted a lower Gn dose in the PCOS group. Treating granulosa cells isolated from patients with PCOS with recombinant sRAGE decreased VEGF and SP1 mRNA and protein expression and pAKT levels in a dose-dependent manner. © 2017 Society for Reproduction and Fertility.

Training a cell-level classifier for detecting basal-cell carcinoma by combining human visual attention maps with low-level handcrafted features

PubMed Central

Corredor, Germán; Whitney, Jon; Arias, Viviana; Madabhushi, Anant; Romero, Eduardo

2017-01-01

Abstract. Computational histomorphometric approaches typically use low-level image features for building machine learning classifiers. However, these approaches usually ignore high-level expert knowledge. A computational model (M_im) combines low-, mid-, and high-level image information to predict the likelihood of cancer in whole slide images. Handcrafted low- and mid-level features are computed from area, color, and spatial nuclei distributions. High-level information is implicitly captured from the recorded navigations of pathologists while exploring whole slide images during diagnostic tasks. This model was validated by predicting the presence of cancer in a set of unseen fields of view. The available database was composed of 24 cases of basal-cell carcinoma, from which 17 served to estimate the model parameters and the remaining 7 comprised the evaluation set. A total of 274 fields of view of size 1024×1024  pixels were extracted from the evaluation set. Then 176 patches from this set were used to train a support vector machine classifier to predict the presence of cancer on a patch-by-patch basis while the remaining 98 image patches were used for independent testing, ensuring that the training and test sets do not comprise patches from the same patient. A baseline model (M_ex) estimated the cancer likelihood for each of the image patches. M_ex uses the same visual features as M_im, but its weights are estimated from nuclei manually labeled as cancerous or noncancerous by a pathologist. M_im achieved an accuracy of 74.49% and an F-measure of 80.31%, while M_ex yielded corresponding accuracy and F-measures of 73.47% and 77.97%, respectively. PMID:28382314

Levels of gemcitabine transport and metabolism proteins predict survival times of patients treated with gemcitabine for pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

PubMed

Maréchal, Raphaël; Bachet, Jean-Baptiste; Mackey, John R; Dalban, Cécile; Demetter, Pieter; Graham, Kathryn; Couvelard, Anne; Svrcek, Magali; Bardier-Dupas, Armelle; Hammel, Pascal; Sauvanet, Alain; Louvet, Christophe; Paye, François; Rougier, Philippe; Penna, Christophe; André, Thierry; Dumontet, Charles; Cass, Carol E; Jordheim, Lars Petter; Matera, Eva-Laure; Closset, Jean; Salmon, Isabelle; Devière, Jacques; Emile, Jean-François; Van Laethem, Jean-Luc

2012-09-01

Patients who undergo surgery for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) frequently receive adjuvant gemcitabine chemotherapy. Key determinants of gemcitabine cytotoxicity include the activities of the human equilibrative nucleoside transporter 1 (hENT1), deoxycytidine kinase (dCK), and ribonucleotide reductase subunit 1 (RRM1). We investigated whether tumor levels of these proteins were associated with efficacy of gemcitabine therapy following surgery. Sequential samples of resected PDACs were retrospectively collected from 434 patients at 5 centers; 142 patients did not receive adjuvant treatment (33%), 243 received adjuvant gemcitabine-based regimens (56%), and 49 received nongemcitabine regimens (11%). We measured protein levels of hENT1, dCK, and RRM1 by semiquantitative immunohistochemistry with tissue microarrays and investigated their relationship with patients' overall survival time. The median overall survival time of patients was 32.0 months. Among patients who did not receive adjuvant treatment, levels of hENT1, RRM1, and dCK were not associated with survival time. Among patients who received gemcitabine, high levels of hENT1 and dCK were significantly associated with longer survival time (hazard ratios of 0.34 [P < .0001] and 0.57 [P = .012], respectively). Interaction tests for gemcitabine administration and hENT1 and dCK status were statistically significant (P = .0007 and P = .016, respectively). On multivariate analysis of this population, hENT1 and dCK retained independent predictive values, and those patients with high levels of each protein had the longest survival times following adjuvant therapy with gemcitabine. High levels of hENT1 and dCK in PDAC predict longer survival times in patients treated with adjuvant gemcitabine. Copyright © 2012 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Establishment of the prediction model for ischemic cardiovascular disease of elderly male population under current health care program].

PubMed

Chen, Jin-hong; Wu, Hai-yun; He, Kun-lun; He, Yao; Qin, Yin-he

2010-10-01

To establish and verify the prediction model for ischemic cardiovascular disease (ICVD) among the elderly population who were under the current health care programs. Statistical analysis on data from physical examination, hospitalization of the past years, from questionnaire and telephone interview was carried out in May, 2003. Data was from a hospital which implementing a health care program. Baseline population with a proportion of 4:1 was randomly selected to generate both module group and verification group. Baseline data was induced to make the verification group into regression model of module group and to generate the predictive value. Distinguished ability with area under ROC curve and the predictive veracity were verified through comparing the predictive incidence rate and actual incidence rate of every deciles group by Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Predictive veracity of the prediction model at population level was verified through comparing the predictive 6-year incidence rates of ICVD with actual 6-year accumulative incidence rates of ICVD with error rate calculated. The samples included 2271 males over the age of 65 with 1817 people for modeling population and 454 for verified population. All of the samples were stratified into two layers to establish hierarchical Cox proportional hazard regression model, including one advanced age group (greater than or equal to 75 years old), and another elderly group (less than 75 years old). Data from the statically analysis showed that the risk factors in aged group were age, systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine level, fasting blood glucose level, while protective factor was high density lipoprotein;in advanced age group, the risk factors were body weight index, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol level, serum creatinine level, fasting blood glucose level, while protective factor was HDL-C. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) and 95%CI were 0.723 and 0.687 - 0.759 respectively. Discriminating power was good. All individual predictive ICVD cumulative incidence and actual incidence were analyzed using Hosmer-Lemeshow test, χ(2) = 1.43, P = 0.786, showing that the predictive veracity was good. The stratified Cox Hazards Regression model was used to establish prediction model of the aged male population under a certain health care program. The common prediction factor of the two age groups were: systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine level, fasting blood glucose level and HDL-C. The area under the ROC curve of the verification group was 0.723, showing that the distinguished ability was good and the predict ability at the individual level and at the group level were also satisfactory. It was feasible to using Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Model for predicting the population groups.

A two-model hydrologic ensemble prediction of hydrograph: case study from the upper Nysa Klodzka river basin (SW Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niedzielski, Tomasz; Mizinski, Bartlomiej

2016-04-01

The HydroProg system has been elaborated in frame of the research project no. 2011/01/D/ST10/04171 of the National Science Centre of Poland and is steadily producing multimodel ensemble predictions of hydrograph in real time. Although there are six ensemble members available at present, the longest record of predictions and their statistics is available for two data-based models (uni- and multivariate autoregressive models). Thus, we consider 3-hour predictions of water levels, with lead times ranging from 15 to 180 minutes, computed every 15 minutes since August 2013 for the Nysa Klodzka basin (SW Poland) using the two approaches and their two-model ensemble. Since the launch of the HydroProg system there have been 12 high flow episodes, and the objective of this work is to present the performance of the two-model ensemble in the process of forecasting these events. For a sake of brevity, we limit our investigation to a single gauge located at the Nysa Klodzka river in the town of Klodzko, which is centrally located in the studied basin. We identified certain regular scenarios of how the models perform in predicting the high flows in Klodzko. At the initial phase of the high flow, well before the rising limb of hydrograph, the two-model ensemble is found to provide the most skilful prognoses of water levels. However, while forecasting the rising limb of hydrograph, either the two-model solution or the vector autoregressive model offers the best predictive performance. In addition, it is hypothesized that along with the development of the rising limb phase, the vector autoregression becomes the most skilful approach amongst the scrutinized ones. Our simple two-model exercise confirms that multimodel hydrologic ensemble predictions cannot be treated as universal solutions suitable for forecasting the entire high flow event, but their superior performance may hold only for certain phases of a high flow.

Finite element thermal analysis of multispectral coatings for the ABL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, Rashmi S.; Bettis, Jerry R.; Stewart, Alan F.; Bonsall, Lynn; Copland, James; Hughes, William; Echeverry, Juan C.

1999-04-01

The thermal response of a coated optical surface is an important consideration in the design of any high average power system. Finite element temperature distribution were calculated for both coating witness samples and calorimetry wafers and were compared to actual measured data under tightly controlled conditions. Coatings for ABL were deposited on various substrates including fused silica, ULE, Zerodur, and silicon. The witness samples were irradiate data high power levels at 1.315micrometers to evaluate laser damage thresholds and study absorption levels. Excellent agreement was obtained between temperature predictions and measured thermal response curves. When measured absorption values were not available, the code was used to predict coating absorption based on the measured temperature rise on the back surface. Using the finite element model, the damaging temperature rise can be predicted for a coating with known absorption based on run time, flux, and substrate material.

Resilience among first responders.

PubMed

Pietrantoni, Luca; Prati, Gabriele

2008-12-01

Emergency rescue personnel can be considered a "high risk" occupational group in that they could experience a broad range of health and mental health consequences as a result of work-related exposures to critical incidents. This study examined the resilience factors that protect mental health among first responders. Nine hundred and sixty-one first responders filled out an on-line questionnaire, containing measure of sense of community, collective efficacy, self-efficacy and work-related mental health outcomes (compassion fatigue, burnout and compassion satisfaction). First responders reported high level of compassion satisfaction and low level of burnout and compassion fatigue. Compassion fatigue was predicted by self-efficacy, burnout was predicted by self-efficacy, collective efficacy and sense of community, compassion satisfaction was predicted by self-efficacy and sense of community. Resilience following critical events is common among first responders. Self-efficacy, collective efficacy and sense of community could be considered resilience factors that preserve first responders' work-related mental health.

Explicit and Implicit Approach Motivation Interact to Predict Interpersonal Arrogance

PubMed Central

Robinson, Michael D.; Ode, Scott; Spencer L., Palder; Fetterman, Adam K.

2012-01-01

Self-reports of approach motivation are unlikely to be sufficient in understanding the extent to which the individual reacts to appetitive cues in an approach-related manner. A novel implicit probe of approach tendencies was thus developed, one that assessed the extent to which positive affective (versus neutral) stimuli primed larger size estimates, as larger perceptual sizes co-occur with locomotion toward objects in the environment. In two studies (total N = 150), self-reports of approach motivation interacted with this implicit probe of approach motivation to predict individual differences in arrogance, a broad interpersonal dimension previously linked to narcissism, antisocial personality tendencies, and aggression. The results of the two studies were highly parallel in that self-reported levels of approach motivation predicted interpersonal arrogance in the particular context of high, but not low, levels of implicit approach motivation. Implications for understanding approach motivation, implicit probes of it, and problematic approach-related outcomes are discussed. PMID:22399360

Explicit and implicit approach motivation interact to predict interpersonal arrogance.

PubMed

Robinson, Michael D; Ode, Scott; Palder, Spencer L; Fetterman, Adam K

2012-07-01

Self-reports of approach motivation are unlikely to be sufficient in understanding the extent to which the individual reacts to appetitive cues in an approach-related manner. A novel implicit probe of approach tendencies was thus developed, one that assessed the extent to which positive affective (versus neutral) stimuli primed larger size estimates, as larger perceptual sizes co-occur with locomotion toward objects in the environment. In two studies (total N = 150), self-reports of approach motivation interacted with this implicit probe of approach motivation to predict individual differences in arrogance, a broad interpersonal dimension previously linked to narcissism, antisocial personality tendencies, and aggression. The results of the two studies were highly parallel in that self-reported levels of approach motivation predicted interpersonal arrogance in the particular context of high, but not low, levels of implicit approach motivation. Implications for understanding approach motivation, implicit probes of it, and problematic approach-related outcomes are discussed.

Prediction of hearing outcomes by multiple regression analysis in patients with idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss.

PubMed

Suzuki, Hideaki; Tabata, Takahisa; Koizumi, Hiroki; Hohchi, Nobusuke; Takeuchi, Shoko; Kitamura, Takuro; Fujino, Yoshihisa; Ohbuchi, Toyoaki

2014-12-01

This study aimed to create a multiple regression model for predicting hearing outcomes of idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (ISSNHL). The participants were 205 consecutive patients (205 ears) with ISSNHL (hearing level ≥ 40 dB, interval between onset and treatment ≤ 30 days). They received systemic steroid administration combined with intratympanic steroid injection. Data were examined by simple and multiple regression analyses. Three hearing indices (percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and posttreatment hearing level [HLpost]) and 7 prognostic factors (age, days from onset to treatment, initial hearing level, initial hearing level at low frequencies, initial hearing level at high frequencies, presence of vertigo, and contralateral hearing level) were included in the multiple regression analysis as dependent and explanatory variables, respectively. In the simple regression analysis, the percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and HLpost showed significant correlation with 2, 5, and 6 of the 7 prognostic factors, respectively. The multiple correlation coefficients were 0.396, 0.503, and 0.714 for the percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and HLpost, respectively. Predicted values of HLpost calculated by the multiple regression equation were reliable with 70% probability with a 40-dB-width prediction interval. Prediction of HLpost by the multiple regression model may be useful to estimate the hearing prognosis of ISSNHL. © The Author(s) 2014.

Seeing Eye to Eye: Predicting Teacher-Student Agreement on Classroom Social Networks

PubMed Central

Neal, Jennifer Watling; Cappella, Elise; Wagner, Caroline; Atkins, Marc S.

2010-01-01

This study examines the association between classroom characteristics and teacher-student agreement in perceptions of students’ classroom peer networks. Social network, peer nomination, and observational data were collected from a sample of second through fourth grade teachers (N=33) and students (N=669) in 33 classrooms across five high poverty urban schools. Results demonstrate that variation in teacher-student agreement on the structure of students’ peer networks can be explained, in part, by developmental factors and classroom characteristics. Developmental increases in network density partially mediated the positive relationship between grade level and teacher-student agreement. Larger class sizes and higher levels of normative aggressive behavior resulted in lower levels of teacher-student agreement. Teachers’ levels of classroom organization had mixed influences, with behavior management negatively predicting agreement, and productivity positively predicting agreement. These results underscore the importance of the classroom context in shaping teacher and student perceptions of peer networks. PMID:21666768

Corticosterone secretion patterns prior to spring and autumn migration differ in free-living barn swallows (Hirundo rustica L.).

PubMed

Raja-aho, Sari; Lehikoinen, Esa; Suorsa, Petri; Nikinmaa, Mikko; Vainio, Minna; Vosloo, Dalene; Eeva, Tapio

2013-11-01

Recent studies of long-distance migratory birds show that behavioural and physiological changes associated with predictable or unpredictable challenges during the annual cycle are distinctively regulated by hormones. Corticosterone is the primary energy regulating hormone in birds. Corticosterone levels are elevated during stresses but they are also modulated seasonally according to environmental conditions and life-history demands. We measured the baseline and stress-induced levels of corticosterone in the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica L.) just before spring and autumn migrations in South Africa and Finland, respectively. Barn swallows completing their pre-breeding moult had low body condition (residual body mass) and high baseline corticosterone levels in the wintering grounds. In contrast, baseline corticosterone levels in Finland were low and not related to residual mass. These data contradict the first prediction of the migration modulation hypothesis (MMH) by showing no association with baseline corticosterone levels and pre-migratory fuelling. Yet, the adrenocortical response to the capture and handling stress was notably blunted in South Africa compared to a strong response in Finland. Further, individuals that had started fuelling in Finland showed a reduced response to the handling stress. Taken together, elevated baseline corticosterone levels and high residual mass may blunt the adrenocortical response in long-distance migrants and aerial feeders such as the barn swallow. This observation lends support to the second prediction of the MMH.

Intestinal Fatty Acid Binding Protein as a Marker of Necrosis and Severity in Acute Pancreatitis.

PubMed

Kupčinskas, Juozas; Gedgaudas, Rolandas; Hartman, Hannes; Sippola, Tomi; Lindström, Outi; Johnson, Colin D; Regnér, Sara

2018-07-01

The aim of this study was to study intestinal fatty acid binding protein (i-FABP) as a potential biomarker in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). In a prospective multicenter cohort study, plasma levels of i-FABP were measured in 402 patients with AP. Severity of AP was determined based on the 1992 Atlanta Classification. Admission levels of plasma i-FABP were significantly higher in patients with pancreatic necrosis, in patients having systemic complications, in patients treated invasively, in patients treated in the intensive care unit, in patients with severe AP, and in deceased patients. Plasma i-FABP levels on admission yielded an area under curve (AUC) of 0.732 in discriminating patients with or without pancreatic necrosis and AUC of 0.669 in predicting severe AP. Combination of levels of i-FABP and venous lactate on the day of admission showed higher discriminative power in severe AP-AUC of 0.808. Higher i-FABP levels on admission were associated with pancreatic necrosis, systemic complications, and severe AP. Low levels of i-FABP had a high negative predictive value for pancreatic necrosis and severe AP. Combination of levels of i-FABP and venous lactates on admission were superior to either of markers used alone in predicting severe AP.

Predicting For-Profit Student Persistence Using the Student Satisfaction Inventory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edens, David

2012-01-01

For-profit colleges are under scrutiny with questions about quality of curriculum, quality of faculty and instruction, and the value of the degree for the high-priced tuition. The high debt-load and low levels of persistence among students who enter for-profit institutions raise the level of concern for these students, many of whom are older and…

Adaptation and Age-Related Expectations of Older Gay and Lesbian Adults.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quam, Jean K.; Whitford, Gary S.

1992-01-01

Respondents in a study of lesbian women and gay men over age 50 who indicated high levels of involvement in the gay community reported acceptance of the aging process and high levels of life satisfaction, despite predictable problems associated with aging and sexual orientation. Being active in the gay community was an asset to accepting one's…

Integrated schools, segregated curriculum: effects of within-school segregation on adolescent health behaviors and educational aspirations.

PubMed

Walsemann, Katrina M; Bell, Bethany A

2010-09-01

We examined the extent to which within-school segregation, as measured by unevenness in the distribution of Black and White adolescents across levels of the English curriculum (advanced placement-international baccalaureate-honors, general, remedial, or no English), was associated with smoking, drinking, and educational aspirations, which previous studies found are related to school racial/ethnic composition. We analyzed data from wave 1 of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, restricting our sample to non-Hispanic Blacks (n=2731) and Whites (n=4158) who from 1994 to 1995 attended high schools that enrolled Black and White students. White female students had higher predicted probabilities of smoking or drinking than did Black female students; the largest differences were in schools with high levels of within-school segregation. Black male students had higher predicted probabilities of high educational aspirations than did White male students in schools with low levels of within-school segregation; this association was attenuated for Black males attending schools with moderate or high levels of within-school segregation. Our results provide evidence that within-school segregation may influence both students' aspirations and their behaviors.

Combined Effect of Levels in Personal Self-Regulation and Regulatory Teaching on Meta-Cognitive, on Meta-Motivational, and on Academic Achievement Variables in Undergraduate Students.

PubMed

de la Fuente, Jesús; Sander, Paul; Martínez-Vicente, José M; Vera, Mariano; Garzón, Angélica; Fadda, Salvattore

2017-01-01

The Theory of Self- vs . Externally-Regulated Learning™ (SRL vs. ERL) proposed different types of relationships among levels of variables in Personal Self-Regulation (PSR) and Regulatory Teaching (RT) to predict the meta-cognitive, meta-motivational and -emotional variables of learning, and of Academic Achievement in Higher Education. The aim of this investigation was empirical in order to validate the model of the combined effect of low-medium-high levels in PSR and RT on the dependent variables. For the analysis of combinations, a selected sample of 544 undergraduate students from two Spanish universities was used. Data collection was obtained from validated instruments, in Spanish versions. Using an ex-post-facto design, different Univariate and Multivariate Analyses (3 × 1, 3 × 3, and 4 × 1) were conducted. Results provide evidence for a consistent effect of low-medium-high levels of PSR and of RT, thus giving significant partial confirmation of the proposed rational model. As predicted, (1) the levels of PSR and positively and significantly effected the levels of learning approaches, resilience, engagement, academic confidence, test anxiety, and procedural and attitudinal academic achievement; (2) the most favorable type of interaction was a high level of PSR with a high level RT process. The limitations and implications of these results in the design of effective teaching are analyzed, to improve university teaching-learning processes.

Combined Effect of Levels in Personal Self-Regulation and Regulatory Teaching on Meta-Cognitive, on Meta-Motivational, and on Academic Achievement Variables in Undergraduate Students

PubMed Central

de la Fuente, Jesús; Sander, Paul; Martínez-Vicente, José M.; Vera, Mariano; Garzón, Angélica; Fadda, Salvattore

2017-01-01

The Theory of Self- vs. Externally-Regulated Learning™ (SRL vs. ERL) proposed different types of relationships among levels of variables in Personal Self-Regulation (PSR) and Regulatory Teaching (RT) to predict the meta-cognitive, meta-motivational and -emotional variables of learning, and of Academic Achievement in Higher Education. The aim of this investigation was empirical in order to validate the model of the combined effect of low-medium-high levels in PSR and RT on the dependent variables. For the analysis of combinations, a selected sample of 544 undergraduate students from two Spanish universities was used. Data collection was obtained from validated instruments, in Spanish versions. Using an ex-post-facto design, different Univariate and Multivariate Analyses (3 × 1, 3 × 3, and 4 × 1) were conducted. Results provide evidence for a consistent effect of low-medium-high levels of PSR and of RT, thus giving significant partial confirmation of the proposed rational model. As predicted, (1) the levels of PSR and positively and significantly effected the levels of learning approaches, resilience, engagement, academic confidence, test anxiety, and procedural and attitudinal academic achievement; (2) the most favorable type of interaction was a high level of PSR with a high level RT process. The limitations and implications of these results in the design of effective teaching are analyzed, to improve university teaching-learning processes. PMID:28280473

Modeling the effects of dispersal on predicted contemporary and future fisher (Martes pennanti) distribution in the U.S

Treesearch

Lucretia Olson; M. Schwartz

2013-01-01

Many species at high trophic levels are predicted to be impacted by shifts in habitat associated with climate change. While temperate coniferous forests are predicted to be one of the least affected ecosystems, the impact of shifting habitat on terrestrial carnivores that live within these ecosystems may depend on the dispersal rates of the species and the patchiness...

Natural selection and the evolution of reproductive effort.

PubMed

Hirshfield, M F; Tinkle, D W

1975-06-01

Reproductive effort is defined as that proportion of the total energy budget of an organism that is devoted to reproductive processes. Reproductive effort at a given age within a species will be selected to maximize reproductive value at that age. Reproductive effort is not directly affected by changes in juvenile survivorship, nor necessarily reduced by an increase in adult survivorship. Selection for high levels of reproductive effort should occur when extrinsic adult mortality is high, in environments with constant juvenile survivorship, and in good years for juvenile survivorship in a variable environment, provided that the quality of the year is predictable by adults. Data necessary to measure reproductive effort and to understand how selection results in different levels of effort between individuals and species are discussed. We make several predictions about the effect of increased resource availability on reproductive effort. The empirical bases for testing these predictions are presently inadequate, and we consider data on energy budgets of organisms in nature to be essential for such test. We also conclude that variance in life table parameters must be known in detail to understand the selective bases of levels of reproductive effort.

Estimating ground-level PM(10) in a Chinese city by combining satellite data, meteorological information and a land use regression model.

PubMed

Meng, Xia; Fu, Qingyan; Ma, Zongwei; Chen, Li; Zou, Bin; Zhang, Yan; Xue, Wenbo; Wang, Jinnan; Wang, Dongfang; Kan, Haidong; Liu, Yang

2016-01-01

Development of exposure assessment model is the key component for epidemiological studies concerning air pollution, but the evidence from China is limited. Therefore, a linear mixed effects (LME) model was established in this study in a Chinese metropolis by incorporating aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorological information and the land use regression (LUR) model to predict ground PM10 levels on high spatiotemporal resolution. The cross validation (CV) R(2) and the RMSE of the LME model were 0.87 and 19.2 μg/m(3), respectively. The relative prediction error (RPE) of daily and annual mean predicted PM10 concentrations were 19.1% and 7.5%, respectively. This study was the first attempt in China to estimate both short-term and long-term variation of PM10 levels with high spatial resolution in a Chinese metropolis with the LME model. The results suggested that the LME model could provide exposure assessment for short-term and long-term epidemiological studies in China. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bubble generation during transformer overload

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oommen, T.V.

1990-03-01

Bubble generation in transformers has been demonstrated under certain overload conditions. The release of large quantities of bubbles would pose a dielectric breakdown hazard. A bubble prediction model developed under EPRI Project 1289-4 attempts to predict the bubble evolution temperature under different overload conditions. This report details a verification study undertaken to confirm the validity of the above model using coil structures subjected to overload conditions. The test variables included moisture in paper insulation, gas content in oil, and the type of oil preservation system. Two aged coils were also tested. The results indicated that the observed bubble temperatures weremore » close to the predicted temperatures for models with low initial gas content in the oil. The predicted temperatures were significantly lower than the observed temperatures for models with high gas content. Some explanations are provided for the anomalous behavior at high gas levels in oil. It is suggested that the dissolved gas content is not a significant factor in bubble evolution. The dominant factor in bubble evolution appears to be the water vapor pressure which must reach critical levels before bubbles can be released. Further study is needed to make a meaningful revision of the bubble prediction model. 8 refs., 13 figs., 11 tabs.« less

Predicting Psychosocial Maladjustment in Emerging Adulthood From High School Experiences of Peer Victimization.

PubMed

Buchanan, Carie M; McDougall, Patricia

2018-01-01

The aim of the present study was to compare recollections of sexual, physical, verbal, social, and cyber peer victimization experienced in high school in terms of depressed affect, self-esteem, and loneliness experienced in university. In all, 247 university students (70 males and 177 females; M = 20.62, SD = 2.54) completed online measures assessing retrospective accounts of their experiences of different forms of peer victimization during high school (i.e., sexual, physical, verbal, social, and cyber) and their current psychosocial adjustment (i.e., self-esteem, depressed affect, and loneliness). Three separate hierarchical multiple regressions were conducted to determine whether different indices of negative psychosocial adjustment are more strongly predicted by experiencing sexual or nonsexual forms of peer victimization. Although many university students recalled experiencing sexual peer victimization in high school at least once at an even higher percentage than verbal and social forms of peer victimization, the results of the present study suggest that social peer victimization in high school predicts higher levels of depressed affect and loneliness in university students than sexual peer victimization experienced in high school. Surprisingly, the young adults reporting higher levels of cyber peer victimization in high school were less lonely in university. Although the hypothesized relationships between each form of peer victimization and specific indices of psychosocial functioning were not consistently supported, these findings suggest that the form of peer victimization matters and may be differentially associated with well-being in emerging adulthood. It is important that future research explores how individual characteristics may further predict varied experiences of peer victimization and the long-term impact of those experiences.

Risk and protective factors as predictors of outcome in adolescents with psychiatric disorder and aggression.

PubMed

Vance, J Eric; Bowen, Natasha K; Fernandez, Gustavo; Thompson, Shealy

2002-01-01

To identify predictors of behavioral outcomes in high-risk adolescents with aggression and serious emotional disturbance (SED). Three hundred thirty-seven adolescents from a statewide North Carolina treatment program for aggressive youths with SED were followed between July 1995 and June 1999 from program entry (T1) to approximately 1 year later (T2). Historical and current psychosocial risk and protective factors as well as psychiatric symptom severity at T1 were tested as predictors of high and low behavioral functioning at T2. Behavioral functioning was a composite based on the frequency of risk-taking, self-injurious, threatening, and assaultive behavior. Eleven risk and protective factors were predictive of T2 behavioral functioning, while none of the measured T1 psychiatric symptoms was predictive. A history of aggression and negative parent-child relationships in childhood was predictive of worse T2 behavior, as was lower IQ. Better T2 behavioral outcomes were predicted by a history of consistent parental employment and positive parent-child relations, higher levels of current family support, contact with prosocial peers, higher reading level, good problem-solving abilities, and superior interpersonal skills. Among high-risk adolescents with aggression and SED, psychiatric symptom severity may be a less important predictor of behavioral outcomes than certain risk and protective factors. Several factors predictive of good behavioral functioning represent feasible intervention targets.

Limits on perceptual encoding can be predicted from known receptive field properties of human visual cortex.

PubMed

Cohen, Michael A; Rhee, Juliana Y; Alvarez, George A

2016-01-01

Human cognition has a limited capacity that is often attributed to the brain having finite cognitive resources, but the nature of these resources is usually not specified. Here, we show evidence that perceptual interference between items can be predicted by known receptive field properties of the visual cortex, suggesting that competition within representational maps is an important source of the capacity limitations of visual processing. Across the visual hierarchy, receptive fields get larger and represent more complex, high-level features. Thus, when presented simultaneously, high-level items (e.g., faces) will often land within the same receptive fields, while low-level items (e.g., color patches) will often not. Using a perceptual task, we found long-range interference between high-level items, but only short-range interference for low-level items, with both types of interference being weaker across hemifields. Finally, we show that long-range interference between items appears to occur primarily during perceptual encoding and not during working memory maintenance. These results are naturally explained by the distribution of receptive fields and establish a link between perceptual capacity limits and the underlying neural architecture. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Modeling conductive heat transfer during high-pressure thawing processes: determination of latent heat as a function of pressure.

PubMed

Denys, S; Van Loey, A M; Hendrickx, M E

2000-01-01

A numerical heat transfer model for predicting product temperature profiles during high-pressure thawing processes was recently proposed by the authors. In the present work, the predictive capacity of the model was considerably improved by taking into account the pressure dependence of the latent heat of the product that was used (Tylose). The effect of pressure on the latent heat of Tylose was experimentally determined by a series of freezing experiments conducted at different pressure levels. By combining a numerical heat transfer model for freezing processes with a least sum of squares optimization procedure, the corresponding latent heat at each pressure level was estimated, and the obtained pressure relation was incorporated in the original high-pressure thawing model. Excellent agreement with the experimental temperature profiles for both high-pressure freezing and thawing was observed.

Pharmacotherapy for social anxiety disorder: Interpersonal predictors of outcome and the mediating role of the working alliance.

PubMed

Cohen, Jonah N; Drabick, Deborah A G; Blanco, Carlos; Schneier, Franklin R; Liebowitz, Michael R; Heimberg, Richard G

2017-12-01

Social anxiety disorder (SAD) is highly prevalent and associated with high levels of impairment and distress. Therapies for SAD leave many patients symptomatic at the end of treatment, and little is known about predictors or mechanisms of treatment outcome. Given the interpersonal dysfunction fundamental to SAD, this study investigated whether prominent interpersonal features of SAD (submissive behavior, childhood maltreatment, suppression of anger, and depression) predicted attrition and response to pharmacotherapy and whether the working alliance mediated these relationships. This is the first study to examine the role of the working alliance in pharmacotherapy for SAD. One hundred thirty-eight treatment-seeking individuals with a primary diagnosis of SAD received 12 weeks of open treatment with paroxetine. Higher levels of depression predicted greater severity of SAD at the end of treatment, and higher levels of submissive behavior and childhood emotional maltreatment predicted a greater probability of attrition from treatment. The psychiatrist-assessed working alliance mediated response to pharmacotherapy for individuals who reported a history of emotional maltreatment. These results identify variables that predict pharmacotherapy outcome and emphasize the importance of the working alliance as a mechanism of treatment response for those with a history of emotional maltreatment. Implications for person-specific treatment selection are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rising CO2 Levels Will Intensify Phytoplankton Blooms in Eutrophic and Hypertrophic Lakes

PubMed Central

Verspagen, Jolanda M. H.; Van de Waal, Dedmer B.; Finke, Jan F.; Visser, Petra M.; Van Donk, Ellen; Huisman, Jef

2014-01-01

Harmful algal blooms threaten the water quality of many eutrophic and hypertrophic lakes and cause severe ecological and economic damage worldwide. Dense blooms often deplete the dissolved CO2 concentration and raise pH. Yet, quantitative prediction of the feedbacks between phytoplankton growth, CO2 drawdown and the inorganic carbon chemistry of aquatic ecosystems has received surprisingly little attention. Here, we develop a mathematical model to predict dynamic changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), pH and alkalinity during phytoplankton bloom development. We tested the model in chemostat experiments with the freshwater cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa at different CO2 levels. The experiments showed that dense blooms sequestered large amounts of atmospheric CO2, not only by their own biomass production but also by inducing a high pH and alkalinity that enhanced the capacity for DIC storage in the system. We used the model to explore how phytoplankton blooms of eutrophic waters will respond to rising CO2 levels. The model predicts that (1) dense phytoplankton blooms in low- and moderately alkaline waters can deplete the dissolved CO2 concentration to limiting levels and raise the pH over a relatively wide range of atmospheric CO2 conditions, (2) rising atmospheric CO2 levels will enhance phytoplankton blooms in low- and moderately alkaline waters with high nutrient loads, and (3) above some threshold, rising atmospheric CO2 will alleviate phytoplankton blooms from carbon limitation, resulting in less intense CO2 depletion and a lesser increase in pH. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model predictions were qualitatively robust. Quantitatively, the predictions were sensitive to variation in lake depth, DIC input and CO2 gas transfer across the air-water interface, but relatively robust to variation in the carbon uptake mechanisms of phytoplankton. In total, these findings warn that rising CO2 levels may result in a marked intensification of phytoplankton blooms in eutrophic and hypertrophic waters. PMID:25119996

Mediational Pathways Through Which Positive and Negative Emotionality Contribute to Anhedonic Symptoms of Depression: A Prospective Study of Adolescents

PubMed Central

Hankin, Benjamin L.

2009-01-01

This study takes a developmental psychopathological approach to examine mechanisms through which baseline levels of positive emotionality (PE) and negative emotionality (NE) prospectively predict increases in anhedonic depressive symptoms in a community sample of 350 adolescents (6th–10th graders). Dependent stressors mediated the relationship between baseline levels of NE and anhedonic depressive symptoms after controlling for initial symptoms. Supportive relationships mediated the relationship between baseline levels of PE and anhedonic depressive symptoms, after controlling for baseline symptoms. In addition, NE × PE interacted to predict later anhedonic depressive symptoms, such that adolescents with low levels of PE and high levels of NE experienced the greatest increase in anhedonic depressive symptoms. Last, supportive relationships interacted with baseline PE to predict prospective changes in anhedonic depressive symptoms, such that adolescents with low PE and low supportive relationships experienced the greatest increase in anhedonic depressive symptoms. Results are discussed in terms of current theoretical models of the link between temperament and depression. PMID:19184402

Short-term prediction of rain attenuation level and volatility in Earth-to-Satellite links at EHF band

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Montera, L.; Mallet, C.; Barthès, L.; Golé, P.

2008-08-01

This paper shows how nonlinear models originally developed in the finance field can be used to predict rain attenuation level and volatility in Earth-to-Satellite links operating at the Extremely High Frequencies band (EHF, 20 50 GHz). A common approach to solving this problem is to consider that the prediction error corresponds only to scintillations, whose variance is assumed to be constant. Nevertheless, this assumption does not seem to be realistic because of the heteroscedasticity of error time series: the variance of the prediction error is found to be time-varying and has to be modeled. Since rain attenuation time series behave similarly to certain stocks or foreign exchange rates, a switching ARIMA/GARCH model was implemented. The originality of this model is that not only the attenuation level, but also the error conditional distribution are predicted. It allows an accurate upper-bound of the future attenuation to be estimated in real time that minimizes the cost of Fade Mitigation Techniques (FMT) and therefore enables the communication system to reach a high percentage of availability. The performance of the switching ARIMA/GARCH model was estimated using a measurement database of the Olympus satellite 20/30 GHz beacons and this model is shown to outperform significantly other existing models. The model also includes frequency scaling from the downlink frequency to the uplink frequency. The attenuation effects (gases, clouds and rain) are first separated with a neural network and then scaled using specific scaling factors. As to the resulting uplink prediction error, the error contribution of the frequency scaling step is shown to be larger than that of the downlink prediction, indicating that further study should focus on improving the accuracy of the scaling factor.

Analysis of deep learning methods for blind protein contact prediction in CASP12.

PubMed

Wang, Sheng; Sun, Siqi; Xu, Jinbo

2018-03-01

Here we present the results of protein contact prediction achieved in CASP12 by our RaptorX-Contact server, which is an early implementation of our deep learning method for contact prediction. On a set of 38 free-modeling target domains with a median family size of around 58 effective sequences, our server obtained an average top L/5 long- and medium-range contact accuracy of 47% and 44%, respectively (L = length). A complete implementation has an average accuracy of 59% and 57%, respectively. Our deep learning method formulates contact prediction as a pixel-level image labeling problem and simultaneously predicts all residue pairs of a protein using a combination of two deep residual neural networks, taking as input the residue conservation information, predicted secondary structure and solvent accessibility, contact potential, and coevolution information. Our approach differs from existing methods mainly in (1) formulating contact prediction as a pixel-level image labeling problem instead of an image-level classification problem; (2) simultaneously predicting all contacts of an individual protein to make effective use of contact occurrence patterns; and (3) integrating both one-dimensional and two-dimensional deep convolutional neural networks to effectively learn complex sequence-structure relationship including high-order residue correlation. This paper discusses the RaptorX-Contact pipeline, both contact prediction and contact-based folding results, and finally the strength and weakness of our method. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Association between Psychological Distance and Construal Level: Evidence from an Implicit Association Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bar-Anan, Yoav; Liberman, Nira; Trope, Yaacov

2006-01-01

According to construal level theory (N. Liberman, Y. Trope, & E. Stephan, in press; Y. Trope & N. Liberman, 2003), people use a more abstract, high construal level when judging, perceiving, and predicting more psychologically distal targets, and they judge more abstract targets as being more psychologically distal. The present research…

The rotary subwoofer: a controllable infrasound source.

PubMed

Park, Joseph; Garcés, Milton; Thigpen, Bruce

2009-04-01

The rotary subwoofer is a novel acoustic transducer capable of projecting infrasonic signals at high sound pressure levels. The projector produces higher acoustic particle velocities than conventional transducers which translate into higher radiated sound pressure levels. This paper characterizes measured performance of a rotary subwoofer and presents a model to predict sound pressure levels.

School Readiness Factors for Predicting High and Low Achieving Students in First Grade

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davion, Edward, Jr.

2011-01-01

When analyzed according to race and ethnicity, poverty level, parental education level, as well as other related factors in schools in America, academic achievement disparities negatively impact educational outcomes for poor children and children of color on a consistent basis. At all educational levels, academic achievement and attainments of…

Cytokine Profiling of Ascites at Primary Surgery Identifies an Interaction of Tumor Necrosis Factor-α and Interleukin-6 in Predicting Reduced Progression-Free Survival in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

PubMed Central

Kolomeyevskaya, Nonna; Eng, Kevin H.; Khan, Anm Nazmul H.; Grzankowski, Kassondra S.; Singel, Kelly L.; Moysich, Kirsten; Segal, Brahm H.

2015-01-01

Objectives Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) typically presents with advanced disease. Even with optimal debulking and response to adjuvant chemotherapy, the majority of patients will have disease relapse. We evaluated cytokine and chemokine profiles in ascites at primary surgery as biomarkers for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced EOC. Methods Retrospective analysis of patients (n =70) who underwent surgery at Roswell Park Cancer Institute between 2002-12, followed by platinum-based chemotherapy. Results The mean age at diagnosis was 61.8 years, 85.3% had serous EOC, and 95.7% had stage IIIB, IIIC, or IV disease. Univariate analysis showed that ascites levels of tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α were associated with reduced PFS after primary surgery. Although the ascites concentration of interleukin (IL)-6 was not by itself predictive of PFS, we found that stratifying patients by high TNF-α and high IL-6 levels identified a sub-group of patients at high risk for rapid disease relapse. This effect was largely independent of clinical prognostic variables. Conclusions The combination of high TNF-α and high IL-6 ascites levels at primary surgery predicts worse PFS in patients with advanced EOC. These results suggest an interaction between ascites TNF-α and IL-6 in driving tumor progression and resistance to chemotherapy in advanced EOC, and raise the potential for pre-treatment ascites levels of these cytokines as prognostic biomarkers. This study involved a small sample of patients and was an exploratory analysis; therefore, findings require validation in a larger independent cohort. PMID:26001328

Cytokine profiling of ascites at primary surgery identifies an interaction of tumor necrosis factor-α and interleukin-6 in predicting reduced progression-free survival in epithelial ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Kolomeyevskaya, Nonna; Eng, Kevin H; Khan, Anm Nazmul H; Grzankowski, Kassondra S; Singel, Kelly L; Moysich, Kirsten; Segal, Brahm H

2015-08-01

Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) typically presents with advanced disease. Even with optimal debulking and response to adjuvant chemotherapy, the majority of patients will have disease relapse. We evaluated cytokine and chemokine profiles in ascites at primary surgery as biomarkers for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced EOC. Retrospective analysis of patients (n =70) who underwent surgery at Roswell Park Cancer Institute between 2002 and 2012, followed by platinum-based chemotherapy. The mean age at diagnosis was 61.8 years, 85.3% had serous EOC, and 95.7% had stage IIIB, IIIC, or IV disease. Univariate analysis showed that ascites levels of tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α were associated with reduced PFS after primary surgery. Although the ascites concentration of interleukin (IL)-6 was not by itself predictive of PFS, we found that stratifying patients by high TNF-α and high IL-6 levels identified a sub-group of patients at high risk for rapid disease relapse. This effect was largely independent of clinical prognostic variables. The combination of high TNF-α and high IL-6 ascites levels at primary surgery predicts worse PFS in patients with advanced EOC. These results suggest an interaction between ascites TNF-α and IL-6 in driving tumor progression and resistance to chemotherapy in advanced EOC, and raise the potential for pre-treatment ascites levels of these cytokines as prognostic biomarkers. This study involved a small sample of patients and was an exploratory analysis; therefore, findings require validation in a larger independent cohort. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Patterns and predictors of father-infant engagement across race/ethnic groups

PubMed Central

Cabrera, Natasha J.; Hofferth, Sandra L.; Chae, Soo

2011-01-01

This study examines whether levels of father engagement (e.g., verbal stimulation, caregiving, and physical play) vary by race/ethnicity using a model that controls for fathers’ human capital, mental health, and family relationships. It also tests whether the models work similarly across race/ethnic groups. Its sample of N=5,089 infants and their families is drawn from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study – Birth Cohort (ECLS-B). We found that, after including controls, African American and Latino fathers had higher levels of engagement in caregiving and physical play activities than White fathers. There were no differences in verbal stimulation activities across race/ethnicity. Fathers’ education (college level) predicted more verbally stimulating activities whereas fathers’ report of couple conflict predicted less caregiving and physical play. Although levels of engagement differed across the groups, the overall models did not differ by race/ethnicity, except for physical play. African American mothers who reported high levels of depressive symptoms had partners who engaged in more physical play than White mothers with high levels of depressive symptoms. PMID:22110258

Effect of CTA Tube Current on Spot Sign Detection and Accuracy for Prediction of Intracerebral Hemorrhage Expansion.

PubMed

Morotti, A; Romero, J M; Jessel, M J; Brouwers, H B; Gupta, R; Schwab, K; Vashkevich, A; Ayres, A; Anderson, C D; Gurol, M E; Viswanathan, A; Greenberg, S M; Rosand, J; Goldstein, J N

2016-05-19

Reduction of CT tube current is an effective strategy to minimize radiation load. However, tube current is also a major determinant of image quality. We investigated the impact of CTA tube current on spot sign detection and diagnostic performance for intracerebral hemorrhage expansion. We retrospectively analyzed a prospectively collected cohort of consecutive patients with primary intracerebral hemorrhage from January 2001 to April 2015 who underwent CTA. The study population was divided into 2 groups according to the median CTA tube current level: low current (<350 mA) and high current (≥350 mA). CTA first-pass readings for spot sign presence were independently analyzed by 2 readers. Baseline and follow-up hematoma volumes were assessed by semiautomated computer-assisted volumetric analysis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy of spot sign in predicting hematoma expansion were calculated. This study included 709 patients (288 and 421 in the low- and high-current groups, respectively). A higher proportion of low-current scans identified at least 1 spot sign (20.8% versus 14.7%, P = .034), but hematoma expansion frequency was similar in the 2 groups (18.4% versus 16.2%, P = .434). Sensitivity and positive and negative predictive values were not significantly different between the 2 groups. Conversely, high-current scans showed superior specificity (91% versus 84%, P = .015) and overall accuracy (84% versus 77%, P = .038). CTA obtained at high levels of tube current showed better diagnostic accuracy for prediction of hematoma expansion by using spot sign. These findings may have implications for future studies using the CTA spot sign to predict hematoma expansion for clinical trials. © 2016 American Society of Neuroradiology.

Using the information value method in a geographic information system and remote sensing for malaria mapping: a case study from India.

PubMed

Rai, Praveen Kumar; Nathawat, Mahendra Singh; Rai, Shalini

2013-01-01

This paper explores the scope of malaria-susceptibility modelling to predict malaria occurrence in an area. An attempt has been made in Varanasi district, India, to evaluate the status of malaria disease and to develop a model by which malaria-prone zones could be predicted using five classes of relative malaria susceptibility, i.e.very low, low, moderate, high and very high categories. The information value (Info Val) method was used to assess malaria occurrence and various time-were used as the independent variables. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to investigate associations between such variables and distribution of different mosquitoes responsible for malaria transmission. Accurate prediction of risk depends on a number of variables, such as land use, NDVI, climatic factors, population, distance to health centres, ponds, streams and roads etc., all of which have an influence on malaria transmission or reporting. Climatic factors, particularly rainfall, temperature and relative humidity, are known to have a major influence on the biology of mosquitoes. To produce a malaria-susceptibility map using this method, weightings are calculated for various classes in each group. The groups are then superimposed to prepare a Malaria Susceptibility Index (MSI) map. We found that 3.87% of the malaria cases were found in areas with a low malaria-susceptibility level predicted from the model, whereas 39.86% and 26.29% of malaria cases were found in predicted high and very high susceptibility level areas, respectively. Malaria susceptibility modelled using a GIS may have a role in predicting the risks of malaria and enable public health interventions to be better targeted.

Accurate prediction of complex free surface flow around a high speed craft using a single-phase level set method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broglia, Riccardo; Durante, Danilo

2017-11-01

This paper focuses on the analysis of a challenging free surface flow problem involving a surface vessel moving at high speeds, or planing. The investigation is performed using a general purpose high Reynolds free surface solver developed at CNR-INSEAN. The methodology is based on a second order finite volume discretization of the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations (Di Mascio et al. in A second order Godunov—type scheme for naval hydrodynamics, Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 253-261, 2001; Proceedings of 16th international offshore and polar engineering conference, San Francisco, CA, USA, 2006; J Mar Sci Technol 14:19-29, 2009); air/water interface dynamics is accurately modeled by a non standard level set approach (Di Mascio et al. in Comput Fluids 36(5):868-886, 2007a), known as the single-phase level set method. In this algorithm the governing equations are solved only in the water phase, whereas the numerical domain in the air phase is used for a suitable extension of the fluid dynamic variables. The level set function is used to track the free surface evolution; dynamic boundary conditions are enforced directly on the interface. This approach allows to accurately predict the evolution of the free surface even in the presence of violent breaking waves phenomena, maintaining the interface sharp, without any need to smear out the fluid properties across the two phases. This paper is aimed at the prediction of the complex free-surface flow field generated by a deep-V planing boat at medium and high Froude numbers (from 0.6 up to 1.2). In the present work, the planing hull is treated as a two-degree-of-freedom rigid object. Flow field is characterized by the presence of thin water sheets, several energetic breaking waves and plungings. The computational results include convergence of the trim angle, sinkage and resistance under grid refinement; high-quality experimental data are used for the purposes of validation, allowing to compare the hydrodynamic forces and the attitudes assumed at different velocities. A very good agreement between numerical and experimental results demonstrates the reliability of the single-phase level set approach for the predictions of high Froude numbers flows.

Modeling of NiTiHf using finite difference method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farjam, Nazanin; Mehrabi, Reza; Karaca, Haluk; Mirzaeifar, Reza; Elahinia, Mohammad

2018-03-01

NiTiHf is a high temperature and high strength shape memory alloy with transformation temperatures above 100oC. A constitutive model based on Gibbs free energy is developed to predict the behavior of this material. Two different irrecoverable strains including transformation induced plastic strain (TRIP) and viscoplastic strain (VP) are considered when using high temperature shape memory alloys (HTSMAs). The first one happens during transformation at high levels of stress and the second one is related to the creep which is rate-dependent. The developed model is implemented for NiTiHf under uniaxial loading. Finite difference method is utilized to solve the proposed equations. The material parameters in the equations are calibrated from experimental data. Simulation results are captured to investigate the superelastic behavior of NiTiHf. The extracted results are compared with experimental tests of isobaric heating and cooling at different levels of stress and also superelastic tests at different levels of temperature. More results are generated to investigate the capability of the proposed model in the prediction of the irrecoverable strain after full transformation in HTSMAs.

Understanding the psychological precursors of young drivers' willingness to speed and text while driving.

PubMed

Preece, Carissa; Watson, Angela; Kaye, Sherrie-Anne; Fleiter, Judy

2018-08-01

This study applied the Prototype Willingness Model (PWM) to investigate the factors that may predict young drivers' (non-intentional) willingness to text while driving, text while stopped, and engage in high and low levels of speeding. In addition, the study sought to assess whether general optimism bias would predict young drivers' willingness to text and speed over and above the PWM. Licenced drivers (N = 183) aged 17-25 years (M = 19.84, SD = 2.30) in Queensland, Australia completed an online survey. Hierarchical multiple regressions revealed that the PWM was effective in explaining the variance in willingness to perform all four illegal driving behaviours. Particularly, young drivers who possessed favourable attitudes and a positive prototype perception towards these behaviours were more willing to engage in texting and speeding. In contrast to the study's predictions, optimistically biased beliefs decreased young drivers' willingness to text while stopped and engage in high and low levels of speeding. The findings of the study may help inform policy and educational campaigns to better target risky driving behaviours by considering the influence of attitudes, prototypes and the non-intentional pathway that may lead to engagement in texting while driving and stopped and engagement in high and low levels of speeding. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of sustained attention, maternal sensitivity, and infant temperament in the development of early self-regulation.

PubMed

Frick, Matilda A; Forslund, Tommie; Fransson, Mari; Johansson, Maria; Bohlin, Gunilla; Brocki, Karin C

2018-05-01

This study investigated infant predictors of early cognitive and emotional self-regulation from an intrinsic and caregiving environmental perspective. Sustained attention, reactive aspects of infant temperament, and maternal sensitivity were assessed at 10 months (n = 124) and early self-regulation (including executive functions, EF, and emotion regulation) was assessed at 18 months. The results indicated that sustained attention predicted early EF, which provide empirical support for the hierarchical framework of EF development, advocating early attention as a foundation for the development of cognitive self-regulation. Maternal sensitivity and surgency predicted emotion regulation, in that infants of sensitive mothers showed more regulatory behaviours and a longer latency to distress, whereas high levels of surgency predicted low emotion regulation, suggesting both the caregiving environment and temperament as important in the development of self-regulation. Interaction effects suggested high sustained attention to be a protective factor for children of insensitive mothers, in relation to emotion regulation. In addition, high levels of maternal sensitivity seemed to foster development of emotion regulation among children with low to medium levels of sustained attention and/or surgency. In all, our findings point to the importance of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors in infant development of self-regulation. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Global skin colour prediction from DNA.

PubMed

Walsh, Susan; Chaitanya, Lakshmi; Breslin, Krystal; Muralidharan, Charanya; Bronikowska, Agnieszka; Pospiech, Ewelina; Koller, Julia; Kovatsi, Leda; Wollstein, Andreas; Branicki, Wojciech; Liu, Fan; Kayser, Manfred

2017-07-01

Human skin colour is highly heritable and externally visible with relevance in medical, forensic, and anthropological genetics. Although eye and hair colour can already be predicted with high accuracies from small sets of carefully selected DNA markers, knowledge about the genetic predictability of skin colour is limited. Here, we investigate the skin colour predictive value of 77 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 37 genetic loci previously associated with human pigmentation using 2025 individuals from 31 global populations. We identified a minimal set of 36 highly informative skin colour predictive SNPs and developed a statistical prediction model capable of skin colour prediction on a global scale. Average cross-validated prediction accuracies expressed as area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) ± standard deviation were 0.97 ± 0.02 for Light, 0.83 ± 0.11 for Dark, and 0.96 ± 0.03 for Dark-Black. When using a 5-category, this resulted in 0.74 ± 0.05 for Very Pale, 0.72 ± 0.03 for Pale, 0.73 ± 0.03 for Intermediate, 0.87±0.1 for Dark, and 0.97 ± 0.03 for Dark-Black. A comparative analysis in 194 independent samples from 17 populations demonstrated that our model outperformed a previously proposed 10-SNP-classifier approach with AUCs rising from 0.79 to 0.82 for White, comparable at the intermediate level of 0.63 and 0.62, respectively, and a large increase from 0.64 to 0.92 for Black. Overall, this study demonstrates that the chosen DNA markers and prediction model, particularly the 5-category level; allow skin colour predictions within and between continental regions for the first time, which will serve as a valuable resource for future applications in forensic and anthropologic genetics.

Happiness and related factors in pregnant women.

PubMed

Jayasvasti, Kanthika; Kanchanatawan, Buranee

2005-09-01

Pregnancy is a crisis in the human life cycle as an important turning point in aspects of anatomical, physiological and psychosocial changes. An unhappy pregnanus could influence the fetal growth and development and sense of maternal competence as well as bonding with the fetus which profoundly affect the nurture of the infant after delivery. The authors'purposes were to study happiness and related factors in pregnant women having antenatal care at King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital. Four hundred and thirty-eight pregnant women from the antenatal clinic at King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital were randomly selected to complete a set of questionnaires that consisted of personal information, pregnant information, The Oxford Happiness Questionnaire (OHQ), The Maudsley Personality Inventory (MPI) and The Marital Satisfaction Scale (MSS). Prevalence of happiness level was classified by descriptive analysis. Unpaired t-test, ANOVA and Pearson's Product Moment Correlation analyzed related factors to happiness in pregnant woman. Also Stepwise Multiple Regression Analysis was used to define predictive factors for happiness in pregnant women. The sample had a high level of happiness of 57.3%. Significant related factors to happiness were age between 31-35 years, high education level, high individual and family income, having saving deposition, no drug abuse, improved marital relationship, no conflict with relatives, extrovert and stable personality types and no concerns about post-partum body image. Four predictive factors for happiness in pregnant women were extrovert personality, stable personality, high family income and improved marital relationship. Level of happiness in pregnant women could be predicted by type of personality, family income and marital relationship.

A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction

PubMed Central

Alaminos, David; del Castillo, Agustín; Fernández, Manuel Ángel

2016-01-01

The recent world financial crisis has increased the number of bankruptcies in numerous countries and has resulted in a new area of research which responds to the need to predict this phenomenon, not only at the level of individual countries, but also at a global level, offering explanations of the common characteristics shared by the affected companies. Nevertheless, few studies focus on the prediction of bankruptcies globally. In order to compensate for this lack of empirical literature, this study has used a methodological framework of logistic regression to construct predictive bankruptcy models for Asia, Europe and America, and other global models for the whole world. The objective is to construct a global model with a high capacity for predicting bankruptcy in any region of the world. The results obtained have allowed us to confirm the superiority of the global model in comparison to regional models over periods of up to three years prior to bankruptcy. PMID:27880810

The Influence of Parental Control and Parent-Child Relational Qualities on Adolescent Internet Addiction: A 3-Year Longitudinal Study in Hong Kong

PubMed Central

Shek, Daniel T. L.; Zhu, Xiaoqin; Ma, Cecilia M. S.

2018-01-01

This study investigated how parental behavioral control, parental psychological control, and parent-child relational qualities predicted the initial level and rate of change in adolescent internet addiction (IA) across the junior high school years. The study also investigated the concurrent and longitudinal effects of different parenting factors on adolescent IA. Starting from the 2009/2010 academic year, 3,328 Grade 7 students (Mage = 12.59 ± 0.74 years) from 28 randomly selected secondary schools in Hong Kong responded on a yearly basis to a questionnaire measuring multiple constructs including socio-demographic characteristics, perceived parenting characteristics, and IA. Individual growth curve (IGC) analyses showed that adolescent IA slightly decreased during junior high school years. While behavioral control of both parents was negatively related to the initial level of adolescent IA, only paternal behavioral control showed a significant positive relationship with the rate of linear change in IA, suggesting that higher paternal behavioral control predicted a slower decrease in IA. In addition, fathers' and mothers' psychological control was positively associated with the initial level of adolescent IA, but increase in maternal psychological control predicted a faster drop in IA. Finally, parent-child relational qualities negatively and positively predicted the initial level and the rate of change in IA, respectively. When all parenting factors were considered simultaneously, multiple regression analyses revealed that paternal behavioral control and psychological control as well as maternal psychological control and mother-child relational quality were significant concurrent predictors of adolescent IA at Wave 2 and Wave 3. Regarding the longitudinal predicting effects, paternal psychological control and mother-child relational quality at Wave 1 were the two most robust predictors of later adolescent IA at Wave 2 and Wave 3. The above findings underscore the importance of the parent-child subsystem qualities in influencing adolescent IA in the junior high school years. In particular, these findings shed light on the different impacts of fathering and mothering which are neglected in the scientific literature. While the findings based on the levels of IA are consistent with the existing theoretical models, findings on the rate of change are novel. PMID:29765349

The Influence of Parental Control and Parent-Child Relational Qualities on Adolescent Internet Addiction: A 3-Year Longitudinal Study in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Shek, Daniel T L; Zhu, Xiaoqin; Ma, Cecilia M S

2018-01-01

This study investigated how parental behavioral control, parental psychological control, and parent-child relational qualities predicted the initial level and rate of change in adolescent internet addiction (IA) across the junior high school years. The study also investigated the concurrent and longitudinal effects of different parenting factors on adolescent IA. Starting from the 2009/2010 academic year, 3,328 Grade 7 students ( M age = 12.59 ± 0.74 years) from 28 randomly selected secondary schools in Hong Kong responded on a yearly basis to a questionnaire measuring multiple constructs including socio-demographic characteristics, perceived parenting characteristics, and IA. Individual growth curve (IGC) analyses showed that adolescent IA slightly decreased during junior high school years. While behavioral control of both parents was negatively related to the initial level of adolescent IA, only paternal behavioral control showed a significant positive relationship with the rate of linear change in IA, suggesting that higher paternal behavioral control predicted a slower decrease in IA. In addition, fathers' and mothers' psychological control was positively associated with the initial level of adolescent IA, but increase in maternal psychological control predicted a faster drop in IA. Finally, parent-child relational qualities negatively and positively predicted the initial level and the rate of change in IA, respectively. When all parenting factors were considered simultaneously, multiple regression analyses revealed that paternal behavioral control and psychological control as well as maternal psychological control and mother-child relational quality were significant concurrent predictors of adolescent IA at Wave 2 and Wave 3. Regarding the longitudinal predicting effects, paternal psychological control and mother-child relational quality at Wave 1 were the two most robust predictors of later adolescent IA at Wave 2 and Wave 3. The above findings underscore the importance of the parent-child subsystem qualities in influencing adolescent IA in the junior high school years. In particular, these findings shed light on the different impacts of fathering and mothering which are neglected in the scientific literature. While the findings based on the levels of IA are consistent with the existing theoretical models, findings on the rate of change are novel.

Development of Research-Based Protocol Aligned to Predict High Levels of Teaching Quality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schumacher, Gary; Grigsby, Bettye; Vesey, Winona

2011-01-01

This study proposes a research-based teacher selection protocol. The protocol is intended to offer school district hiring authorities a tool to identify teacher candidates with the behaviors expected to predict effective teaching. It is hypothesized that a particular series of research-based interview questions focusing on teaching behaviors in…

Relations Among Student Attention Behaviors, Teacher Practices, and Beginning Word Reading Skill

PubMed Central

Sáez, Leilani; Folsom, Jessica Sidler; Al Otaiba, Stephanie; Schatschneider, Christopher

2011-01-01

The role of student attention for predicting kindergarten word reading was investigated among 432 students. Using SWAN behavior rating scores, we conducted an exploratory factor analysis, which yielded three distinct factors that reflected selective attention. In this study, we focused on the role of one of these factors, which we labeled attention-memory behaviors, for predicting reading performance. Teacher ratings of attention predicted word reading above and beyond the contribution of phonological awareness and vocabulary knowledge. In addition, the relations between four teacher practices and attention ratings for predicting reading performance were examined. Using HLM, significant interactions between student attention and teacher practices observed during literacy instruction were found. In general, as ratings of attention improved, better kindergarten word reading performance was associated with high levels of classroom behavior management. However, by mid-year, better word reading performance was not associated with high levels of teacher task- orienting. A significant three-way interaction was also found among attention, individualized instruction, and teacher task re-directions. The role of regulating kindergarten student attention to support beginning word reading skill development is discussed. PMID:22207616

Robust prediction of individual creative ability from brain functional connectivity.

PubMed

Beaty, Roger E; Kenett, Yoed N; Christensen, Alexander P; Rosenberg, Monica D; Benedek, Mathias; Chen, Qunlin; Fink, Andreas; Qiu, Jiang; Kwapil, Thomas R; Kane, Michael J; Silvia, Paul J

2018-01-30

People's ability to think creatively is a primary means of technological and cultural progress, yet the neural architecture of the highly creative brain remains largely undefined. Here, we employed a recently developed method in functional brain imaging analysis-connectome-based predictive modeling-to identify a brain network associated with high-creative ability, using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data acquired from 163 participants engaged in a classic divergent thinking task. At the behavioral level, we found a strong correlation between creative thinking ability and self-reported creative behavior and accomplishment in the arts and sciences ( r = 0.54). At the neural level, we found a pattern of functional brain connectivity related to high-creative thinking ability consisting of frontal and parietal regions within default, salience, and executive brain systems. In a leave-one-out cross-validation analysis, we show that this neural model can reliably predict the creative quality of ideas generated by novel participants within the sample. Furthermore, in a series of external validation analyses using data from two independent task fMRI samples and a large task-free resting-state fMRI sample, we demonstrate robust prediction of individual creative thinking ability from the same pattern of brain connectivity. The findings thus reveal a whole-brain network associated with high-creative ability comprised of cortical hubs within default, salience, and executive systems-intrinsic functional networks that tend to work in opposition-suggesting that highly creative people are characterized by the ability to simultaneously engage these large-scale brain networks.

Prediction of infarct severity from triiodothyronine levels in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Kim, Dong Hun; Choi, Dong-Hyun; Kim, Hyun-Wook; Choi, Seo-Won; Kim, Bo-Bae; Chung, Joong-Wha; Koh, Young-Youp; Chang, Kyong-Sig; Hong, Soon-Pyo

2014-07-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the relationship between thyroid hormone levels and infarct severity in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). We retrospectively reviewed thyroid hormone levels, infarct severity, and the extent of transmurality in 40 STEMI patients evaluated via contrast-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. The high triiodothyronine (T3) group (≥ 68.3 ng/dL) exhibited a significantly higher extent of transmural involvement (late transmural enhancement > 75% after administration of gadolinium contrast agent) than did the low T3 group (60% vs. 15%; p = 0.003). However, no significant difference was evident between the high- and low-thyroid-stimulating hormone/free thyroxine (FT4) groups. When the T3 cutoff level was set to 68.3 ng/dL using a receiver operating characteristic curve, the sensitivity was 80% and the specificity 68% in terms of differentiating between those with and without transmural involvement. Upon logistic regression analysis, high T3 level was an independent predictor of transmural involvement after adjustment for the presence of diabetes mellitus (DM) and the use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors (odds ratio, 40.62; 95% confidence interval, 3.29 to 502; p = 0.004). The T3 level predicted transmural involvement that was independent of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor use and DM positivity.

Prediction of high-energy radiation belt electron fluxes using a combined VERB-NARMAX model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pakhotin, I. P.; Balikhin, M. A.; Shprits, Y.; Subbotin, D.; Boynton, R.

2013-12-01

This study is concerned with the modelling and forecasting of energetic electron fluxes that endanger satellites in space. By combining data-driven predictions from the NARMAX methodology with the physics-based VERB code, it becomes possible to predict electron fluxes with a high level of accuracy and across a radial distance from inside the local acceleration region to out beyond geosynchronous orbit. The model coupling also makes is possible to avoid accounting for seed electron variations at the outer boundary. Conversely, combining a convection code with the VERB and NARMAX models has the potential to provide even greater accuracy in forecasting that is not limited to geostationary orbit but makes predictions across the entire outer radiation belt region.

The Role of YKL-40 in Predicting Resistance to Docetaxel Chemotherapy in Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Darr, Christopher; Krafft, Ulrich; Hadaschik, Boris; Tschirdewahn, Stephan; Sevcenco, Sabina; Csizmarik, Anita; Nyirady, Peter; Küronya, Zsófia; Reis, Henning; Maj-Hes, Agnieszka; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Kramer, Gero; Szarvas, Tibor

2018-06-27

High baseline YKL-40 serum levels are associated with drug resistance in several solid tumours. However, their role in predicting docetaxel (DOC) resistance in prostate cancer (PCa) is unknown. Pre-treatment serum levels of YKL-40 and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) were analyzed in 109 castration-resistant prostate cancer patients who underwent DOC-therapy. Responsive patients were retreated by repeated series of DOC. Results were compared with the clinical parameters as well as overall (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). YKL-40 but not PSA serum levels were significantly higher in patients with baseline resistance to DOC (p = 0.035). Higher YKL-40 and PSA levels were detected in patients with bone metastasis (p = 0.032; p = 0.010) and in those who were not pre-treated with radical prostatectomy (p = 0.011, p = 0.008). High YKL-40 levels were associated with shorter OS (p = 0.037) and DSS (p = 0.017) in patients who received DOC in the first-line setting. In multivariable analysis, ECOG performance status (p = 0.009), presence of any metastases (p = 0.016) and high PSA levels (p = 0.005) remained independent predictors for DSS. YKL-40 may help to identify patients with baseline resistance to DOC and therefore may help to optimize treatment decisions. In accordance, high pre-treatment YKL-40 serum levels were associated with shorter OS and DSS in patients who received DOC as first-line therapy. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

King Tides and Climate Change

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The highest predicted high tide of the year at a coastal location can bring unusually high water levels and can cause flooding. Learn about these tides including what they are, when they occur, and what they can mean for the future.

Multimachine data–based prediction of high-frequency sensor signal noise for resistive wall mode control in ITER

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Yueqiang; Sabbagh, S. A.; Chapman, I. T.

The high-frequency noise measured by magnetic sensors, at levels above the typical frequency of resistive wall modes, is analyzed across a range of present tokamak devices including DIII-D, JET, MAST, ASDEX Upgrade, JT-60U, and NSTX. A high-pass filter enables identification of the noise component with Gaussian-like statistics that shares certain common characteristics in all devices considered. A conservative prediction is made for ITER plasma operation of the high-frequency noise component of the sensor signals, to be used for resistive wall mode feedback stabilization, based on the multimachine database. The predicted root-mean-square n = 1 (n is the toroidal mode number)more » noise level is 10 4 to 10 5 G/s for the voltage signal, and 0.1 to 1 G for the perturbed magnetic field signal. The lower cutoff frequency of the Gaussian pickup noise scales linearly with the sampling frequency, with a scaling coefficient of about 0.1. As a result, these basic noise characteristics should be useful for the modeling-based design of the feedback control system for the resistive wall mode in ITER.« less

Multimachine data–based prediction of high-frequency sensor signal noise for resistive wall mode control in ITER

DOE PAGES

Liu, Yueqiang; Sabbagh, S. A.; Chapman, I. T.; ...

2017-03-27

The high-frequency noise measured by magnetic sensors, at levels above the typical frequency of resistive wall modes, is analyzed across a range of present tokamak devices including DIII-D, JET, MAST, ASDEX Upgrade, JT-60U, and NSTX. A high-pass filter enables identification of the noise component with Gaussian-like statistics that shares certain common characteristics in all devices considered. A conservative prediction is made for ITER plasma operation of the high-frequency noise component of the sensor signals, to be used for resistive wall mode feedback stabilization, based on the multimachine database. The predicted root-mean-square n = 1 (n is the toroidal mode number)more » noise level is 10 4 to 10 5 G/s for the voltage signal, and 0.1 to 1 G for the perturbed magnetic field signal. The lower cutoff frequency of the Gaussian pickup noise scales linearly with the sampling frequency, with a scaling coefficient of about 0.1. As a result, these basic noise characteristics should be useful for the modeling-based design of the feedback control system for the resistive wall mode in ITER.« less

Proof-test-based life prediction of high-toughness pressure vessels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Panontin, T.L.; Hill, M.R.

1996-02-01

The paper examines the problems associated with applying proof-test-based life prediction to vessels made of high-toughness metals. Two A106 Gr B pipe specimens containing long, through-wall circumferential flaws were tested. One failed during hydrostatic testing and the other during tension-tension cycling following a hydrostatic test. Quantitative fractography was used to verify experimentally obtained fatigue crack growth rates and a variety of LEFM and EPFM techniques were used to analyze the experimental results. The results show that: plastic collapse analysis provides accurate predictions of screened (initial) crack size when the flow stress is determined experimentally; LEFM analysis underestimates the crack sizemore » screened by the proof test and overpredicts the subsequent fatigue life of the vessel when retardation effects are small (i.e., low proof levels); and, at a high proof-test level (2.4 {times} operating pressure), the large retardation effect on fatigue crack growth due to the overload overwhelmed the deleterious effect on fatigue life from stable tearing during the proof test and alleviated the problem of screening only long cracks due to the high toughness of the metal.« less

Crop Yield Predictions - High Resolution Statistical Model for Intra-season Forecasts Applied to Corn in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Y.

2017-12-01

Accurately forecasting crop yields has broad implications for economic trading, food production monitoring, and global food security. However, the variation of environmental variables presents challenges to model yields accurately, especially when the lack of highly accurate measurements creates difficulties in creating models that can succeed across space and time. In 2016, we developed a sequence of machine-learning based models forecasting end-of-season corn yields for the US at both the county and national levels. We combined machine learning algorithms in a hierarchical way, and used an understanding of physiological processes in temporal feature selection, to achieve high precision in our intra-season forecasts, including in very anomalous seasons. During the live run, we predicted the national corn yield within 1.40% of the final USDA number as early as August. In the backtesting of the 2000-2015 period, our model predicts national yield within 2.69% of the actual yield on average already by mid-August. At the county level, our model predicts 77% of the variation in final yield using data through the beginning of August and improves to 80% by the beginning of October, with the percentage of counties predicted within 10% of the average yield increasing from 68% to 73%. Further, the lowest errors are in the most significant producing regions, resulting in very high precision national-level forecasts. In addition, we identify the changes of important variables throughout the season, specifically early-season land surface temperature, and mid-season land surface temperature and vegetation index. For the 2017 season, we feed 2016 data to the training set, together with additional geospatial data sources, aiming to make the current model even more precise. We will show how our 2017 US corn yield forecasts converges in time, which factors affect the yield the most, as well as present our plans for 2018 model adjustments.

Comprehensive ripeness-index for prediction of ripening level in mangoes by multivariate modelling of ripening behaviour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eyarkai Nambi, Vijayaram; Thangavel, Kuladaisamy; Manickavasagan, Annamalai; Shahir, Sultan

2017-01-01

Prediction of ripeness level in climacteric fruits is essential for post-harvest handling. An index capable of predicting ripening level with minimum inputs would be highly beneficial to the handlers, processors and researchers in fruit industry. A study was conducted with Indian mango cultivars to develop a ripeness index and associated model. Changes in physicochemical, colour and textural properties were measured throughout the ripening period and the period was classified into five stages (unripe, early ripe, partially ripe, ripe and over ripe). Multivariate regression techniques like partial least square regression, principal component regression and multi linear regression were compared and evaluated for its prediction. Multi linear regression model with 12 parameters was found more suitable in ripening prediction. Scientific variable reduction method was adopted to simplify the developed model. Better prediction was achieved with either 2 or 3 variables (total soluble solids, colour and acidity). Cross validation was done to increase the robustness and it was found that proposed ripening index was more effective in prediction of ripening stages. Three-variable model would be suitable for commercial applications where reasonable accuracies are sufficient. However, 12-variable model can be used to obtain more precise results in research and development applications.

A comprehensive pipeline for multi-resolution modeling of the mitral valve: Validation, computational efficiency, and predictive capability.

PubMed

Drach, Andrew; Khalighi, Amir H; Sacks, Michael S

2018-02-01

Multiple studies have demonstrated that the pathological geometries unique to each patient can affect the durability of mitral valve (MV) repairs. While computational modeling of the MV is a promising approach to improve the surgical outcomes, the complex MV geometry precludes use of simplified models. Moreover, the lack of complete in vivo geometric information presents significant challenges in the development of patient-specific computational models. There is thus a need to determine the level of detail necessary for predictive MV models. To address this issue, we have developed a novel pipeline for building attribute-rich computational models of MV with varying fidelity directly from the in vitro imaging data. The approach combines high-resolution geometric information from loaded and unloaded states to achieve a high level of anatomic detail, followed by mapping and parametric embedding of tissue attributes to build a high-resolution, attribute-rich computational models. Subsequent lower resolution models were then developed and evaluated by comparing the displacements and surface strains to those extracted from the imaging data. We then identified the critical levels of fidelity for building predictive MV models in the dilated and repaired states. We demonstrated that a model with a feature size of about 5 mm and mesh size of about 1 mm was sufficient to predict the overall MV shape, stress, and strain distributions with high accuracy. However, we also noted that more detailed models were found to be needed to simulate microstructural events. We conclude that the developed pipeline enables sufficiently complex models for biomechanical simulations of MV in normal, dilated, repaired states. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Usefulness of Circulating Decoy Receptor 3 in Predicting Coronary Artery Disease Severity and Future Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Chang, Ting-Yung; Hsu, Chien-Yi; Huang, Po-Hsun; Chiang, Chia-Hung; Leu, Hsin-Bang; Huang, Chin-Chou; Chen, Jaw-Wen; Lin, Shing-Jong

2015-10-01

Decoy receptor 3 (DcR3), a member of the tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily, is an antiapoptotic soluble receptor considered to play an important role in immune modulation and has pro-inflammatory functions. This study was designed to test whether circulating DcR3 levels are associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) severity and predict future major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with CAD. Circulating DcR3 levels and the Syntax score (SXscore) were determined in patients with multivessel CAD. The primary end point was the MACE within 12 months. In total, 152 consecutive patients with angiographically confirmed multivessel CAD who had received percutaneous coronary intervention were enrolled and were divided into 3 groups according to CAD lesion severity. Group 1 was defined as low SXscore (≤13), group 2 as intermediate SXscore (>13 and ≤22), and group 3 as high SXscore (>22). DcR3 levels were significantly higher in the high SXscore group than the other 2 groups (13,602 ± 7,256 vs 8,025 ± 7,789 vs 4,637 ± 4,403 pg/ml, p <0.001). By multivariate analysis, circulating DcR3 levels were identified as an independent predictor for high SXscore (adjusted odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.09 to 1.21; p <0.001). The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that increased circulating DcR3 levels are associated with enhanced 1-year MACE in patients with multivessel CAD (log-rank p <0.001). In conclusion, increased circulating DcR3 levels are associated with CAD severity and predict future MACE in patients with multivessel CAD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive modeling of crystal accumulation in high-level waste glass melters processing radioactive waste

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matyáš, Josef; Gervasio, Vivianaluxa; Sannoh, Sulaiman E.

We present that the effectiveness of high-level waste vitrification at Hanford's Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant may be limited by precipitation/accumulation of spinel crystals [(Fe, Ni, Mn, Zn)(Fe, Cr) 2O 4] in the glass discharge riser of Joule-heated ceramic melters during idling. These crystals do not affect glass durability; however, if accumulated in thick layers, they can clog the melter and prevent discharge of molten glass into canisters. To address this problem, an empirical model was developed that can predict thicknesses of accumulated layers as a function of glass composition. This model predicts well the accumulation of single crystals and/ormore » small-scale agglomerates, but excessive agglomeration observed in high-Ni-Fe glass resulted in an underprediction of accumulated layers, which gradually worsened over time as an increased number of agglomerates formed. In conclusion, the accumulation rate of ~53.8 ± 3.7 μm/h determined for this glass will result in a ~26 mm-thick layer after 20 days of melter idling.« less

Predictive modeling of crystal accumulation in high-level waste glass melters processing radioactive waste

DOE PAGES

Matyáš, Josef; Gervasio, Vivianaluxa; Sannoh, Sulaiman E.; ...

2017-08-30

We present that the effectiveness of high-level waste vitrification at Hanford's Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant may be limited by precipitation/accumulation of spinel crystals [(Fe, Ni, Mn, Zn)(Fe, Cr) 2O 4] in the glass discharge riser of Joule-heated ceramic melters during idling. These crystals do not affect glass durability; however, if accumulated in thick layers, they can clog the melter and prevent discharge of molten glass into canisters. To address this problem, an empirical model was developed that can predict thicknesses of accumulated layers as a function of glass composition. This model predicts well the accumulation of single crystals and/ormore » small-scale agglomerates, but excessive agglomeration observed in high-Ni-Fe glass resulted in an underprediction of accumulated layers, which gradually worsened over time as an increased number of agglomerates formed. In conclusion, the accumulation rate of ~53.8 ± 3.7 μm/h determined for this glass will result in a ~26 mm-thick layer after 20 days of melter idling.« less

Deviance as adherence to injunctive group norms: the overlooked role of social identification in deviance.

PubMed

Crane, Monique F; Platow, Michael J

2010-12-01

We currently report three studies investigating group members' expressions of dissatisfaction and discontent with the behaviour and attitudes of their in-group members. Our analysis examines the context in which group members will deviate from actual group member behaviour. We argue that highly identifying group members will challenge fellow group member behaviour when that group member behaviour is perceived to violate injunctive group norms. Further, we predicted that high identifiers would still challenge such group member behaviour even if that behaviour were conducted by a majority of group members. Thus, high identifiers were predicted to express descriptively deviant opinions when the behaviour of other members contravenes injunctive group norms. In Studies 1 and 2, group-level self-definition served as a moderator in the relationship between the expression of discontent and perceived injunctive norm violation; in Study 3, group-level self-investment served as this moderator. The findings supported our predictions. This support was particularly strong when a majority of group members violated group norms. Implications for the analysis of the relationship between social identification and deviance are discussed.

Pretreatment TG/HDL-C Ratio Is Superior to Triacylglycerol Level as an Independent Prognostic Factor for the Survival of Triple Negative Breast Cancer Patients.

PubMed

Dai, Danian; Chen, Bo; Wang, Bin; Tang, Hailin; Li, Xing; Zhao, Zhiping; Li, Xuan; Xie, Xiaoming; Wei, Weidong

2016-01-01

Previous studies have reported that the triacylglycerol (TG) level and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) are connected with breast cancer. However, the prognostic utility of the TG level and the TG/HDL-C ratio (THR) as conventional biomarkers in patients with triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) has not been elucidated. In this research, we investigate and compare the predictive value of the pretreatment serum TG level and THR in TNBC patients. We evaluated 221 patients with TNBC who had pretreatment conventional blood biochemical examinations and calculated the THR. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the effect of the TG level and the THR on overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). The optimal cutoff values of the TG level and the THR were determined to be 0.935 mmol/L and 0.600, respectively. As shown in a Kaplan-Meier analysis, TNBC patients with a high TG level and THR had shorter OS and DFS than patients in the low-level groups ( p < 0.05). The multivariate analysis suggested that the pretreatment THR level is an independent prognostic factor of OS (HR: 1.935; 95%CI: 1.032-3.629; p = 0.040) in TNBC patients. In conclusion, our data indicate that a high THR is an independent predictor and is superior to the TG level for predicting poor clinical outcomes in TNBC patients.

Do Dispositional Pessimism and Optimism Predict Ambulatory Blood Pressure During Schooldays and Nights in Adolescents?

PubMed Central

Räikkönen, Katri; Matthews, Karen A.

2010-01-01

We tested the hypotheses that (1) high pessimism and low optimism (LOT-R overall and subscale scores) would predict high ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) level and 24-hour load (percentage of ABP values exceeding the pediatric 95th percentile) among healthy Black and White adolescents (n = 201; 14–16 yrs) across 2 consecutive school days and (2) that the relationships for the pessimism and optimism subscales would show nonlinear effects. The hypotheses were confirmed for pessimism but not for optimism. The results suggest that high pessimism may have different effects than low optimism on ABP and that even moderate levels of pessimism may effect blood pressure regulation. These results suggest that optimism and pessimism are not the opposite poles on a single continuum but ought to be treated as separate constructs. PMID:18399951

Natural geochemical analogues of the near field of high-level nuclear waste repositories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Apps, J.A.

1995-09-01

United States practice has been to design high-level nuclear waste (HLW) geological repositories with waste densities sufficiently high that repository temperatures surrounding the waste will exceed 100{degrees}C and could reach 250{degrees}C. Basalt and devitrified vitroclastic tuff are among the host rocks considered for waste emplacement. Near-field repository thermal behavior and chemical alteration in such rocks is expected to be similar to that observed in many geothermal systems. Therefore, the predictive modeling required for performance assessment studies of the near field could be validated and calibrated using geothermal systems as natural analogues. Examples are given which demonstrate the need for refinementmore » of the thermodynamic databases used in geochemical modeling of near-field natural analogues and the extent to which present models can predict conditions in geothermal fields.« less

Electrostatic Discharge (ESD) Susceptibility of Electronic Devices

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-01-01

determined by knowing the thermal environment in which the component is to operate. However, ESD is not that predictable . It is considered a random... predicted where a part may experience an ESD pulse during usage? (3) What effect does stressing a device with different models have on its propensity for...relatively low ESO threshold voltages (i.e., < 7000 volts) tend to be consistently high compared with their predicted level using EMP data. But at

Prediction of PM2.5 along urban highway corridor under mixed traffic conditions using CALINE4 model.

PubMed

Dhyani, Rajni; Sharma, Niraj; Maity, Animesh Kumar

2017-08-01

The present study deals with spatial-temporal distribution of PM 2.5 along a highly trafficked national highway corridor (NH-2) in Delhi, India. Population residing in areas near roads and highways of high vehicular activities are exposed to high levels of PM 2.5 resulting in various health issues. The spatial extent of PM 2.5 has been assessed with the help of CALINE4 model. Various input parameters of the model were estimated and used to predict PM 2.5 concentration along the selected highway corridor. The results indicated that there are many factors involved which affects the prediction of PM 2.5 concentration by CALINE4 model. In fact, these factors either not considered by model or have little influence on model's prediction capabilities. Therefore, in the present study CALINE4 model performance was observed to be unsatisfactory for prediction of PM 2.5 concentration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coexistence of Low Vitamin D and High Fibroblast Growth Factor-23 Plasma Levels Predicts an Adverse Outcome in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease

PubMed Central

Tuñón, José; Cristóbal, Carmen; Tarín, Nieves; Aceña, Álvaro; González-Casaus, María Luisa; Huelmos, Ana; Alonso, Joaquín; Lorenzo, Óscar; González-Parra, Emilio; Mahíllo-Fernández, Ignacio; Pello, Ana María; Carda, Rocío; Farré, Jerónimo; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando

2014-01-01

Objective Vitamin D and fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23) are related with cardiovascular disorders. We have investigated the relationship of calcidiol (vitamin D metabolite) and FGF-23 plasma levels with the incidence of adverse outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease. Methods Prospective follow-up study of 704 outpatients, attending the departments of Cardiology of four hospitals in Spain, 6–12 months after an acute coronary event. Baseline calcidiol, FGF-23, parathormone, and phosphate plasma levels were assessed. The outcome was the development of acute ischemic events (any acute coronary syndrome, stroke, or transient ischemic attack), heart failure, or death. Cox regression adjusted for the main confounders was performed. Results Calcidiol levels showed a moderate-severe decrease in 57.3% of cases. Parathormone, FGF-23, and phosphate levels were increased in 30.0%, 11.5% and 0.9% of patients, respectively. Only 22.4% of patients had glomerular filtration rate<60 ml/min1.73 m2. After a mean follow-up was 2.15±0.99 years, 77 patients developed the outcome. Calcidiol (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.67; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.48–0.94; p = 0.021) and FGF-23 (HR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.04–1.23; p = 0.005) plasma levels predicted independently the outcome. There was a significant interaction between calcidiol and FGF-23 levels (p = 0.025). When the population was divided according to FGF-23 levels, calcidiol still predicted the outcome independently in patients with FGF-23 levels higher than the median (HR = 0.50; 95% CI = 0.31–0.80; p = 0.003) but not in those with FGF-23 levels below this value (HR = 1.03; 95% CI = 0.62–1.71; p = 0.904). Conclusions Abnormalities in mineral metabolism are frequent in patients with stable coronary artery disease. In this population, low calcidiol plasma levels predict an adverse prognosis in the presence of high FGF-23 levels. PMID:24748388

Use of chaos theory and complex systems modeling to study alcohol effects on fetal condition.

PubMed

Mehl, L E; Manchanda, S

1993-10-01

A systems dynamics computer model to predict birth complications for individual pregnant woman was developed from prospectively conducted data on a database of 125 pregnant women. The model is based upon nonlinear mathematics derived from the study of chaos and complex systems. The model was then tested prospectively on 27 additional pregnant women, making predictions on their level of obstetrical risk. The model was refined until it correctly predicted the outcomes of all 125 cases in the development database. Prediction was made with an accuracy of 25/27 cases for the prospective test cases. Predictions were made for fetal condition at birth, presence or absence of operative delivery, and presence or absence of uterine dysfunction. Then the model was used to explore alcohol use during pregnancy. A reasonable spread of alcohol use existed among subjects, allowing consideration of alcohol effects. Alcohol was found to have differential effects on fetal condition at birth depending upon the presence or absence of high levels of psychosocial stress and the use of other substances. In all cases, the effect of alcohol was only evident after the 10 drinks per week level was reached. For the high-stress/one other substance group, there could be an 18-fold effect on fetal condition at birth. For the low-stress/one other substance group, the effect was only 3-fold, and for the alcohol alone group, the effect was negligible.

The Extent and Prediction of Heavy Metal Pollution in Soils of Shahrood and Damghan, Iran.

PubMed

Sakizadeh, Mohamad; Mirzaei, Rouhollah; Ghorbani, Hadi

2015-12-01

The levels of 12 heavy metals (Ag, Ba, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Tl, V, Zn) were considered in 229 soil samples in Semnan Province, Iran. To discriminate between natural and anthropogenic inputs of heavy metals, factor analysis was used. Seven factors accounting for 90.5 % of the total variance were extracted. The mining and agricultural activities along with geogenic sources have been attributed as the main causes of the levels of heavy metals in the study area. The partial least squares regression was utilized to predict the level of soil pollution index (SPI) considering the concentrations of 12 heavy metals. The eigenvectors from the first three PLS represented more than 98 % of the overall variance. The correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted SPI was 0.99 indicating the high efficiency of this method. The resultant coefficient of determination for three PLS components was 0.984 confirming the predictive ability of this method.

Attention Modulates Spatial Precision in Multiple-Object Tracking.

PubMed

Srivastava, Nisheeth; Vul, Ed

2016-01-01

We present a computational model of multiple-object tracking that makes trial-level predictions about the allocation of visual attention and the effect of this allocation on observers' ability to track multiple objects simultaneously. This model follows the intuition that increased attention to a location increases the spatial resolution of its internal representation. Using a combination of empirical and computational experiments, we demonstrate the existence of a tight coupling between cognitive and perceptual resources in this task: Low-level tracking of objects generates bottom-up predictions of error likelihood, and high-level attention allocation selectively reduces error probabilities in attended locations while increasing it at non-attended locations. Whereas earlier models of multiple-object tracking have predicted the big picture relationship between stimulus complexity and response accuracy, our approach makes accurate predictions of both the macro-scale effect of target number and velocity on tracking difficulty and micro-scale variations in difficulty across individual trials and targets arising from the idiosyncratic within-trial interactions of targets and distractors. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

A Habitat-based Wind-Wildlife Collision Model with Application to the Upper Great Plains Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forcey, Greg, M.

Most previous studies on collision impacts at wind facilities have taken place at the site-specific level and have only examined small-scale influences on mortality. In this study, we examine landscape-level influences using a hierarchical spatial model combined with existing datasets and life history knowledge for: Horned Lark, Red-eyed Vireo, Mallard, American Avocet, Golden Eagle, Whooping Crane, red bat, silver-haired bat, and hoary bat. These species were modeled in the central United States within Bird Conservation Regions 11, 17, 18, and 19. For the bird species, we modeled bird abundance from existing datasets as a function of habitat variables known tomore » be preferred by each species to develop a relative abundance prediction for each species. For bats, there are no existing abundance datasets so we identified preferred habitat in the landscape for each species and assumed that greater amounts of preferred habitat would equate to greater abundance of bats. The abundance predictions for bird and bats were modeled with additional exposure factors known to influence collisions such as visibility, wind, temperature, precipitation, topography, and behavior to form a final mapped output of predicted collision risk within the study region. We reviewed published mortality studies from wind farms in our study region and collected data on reported mortality of our focal species to compare to our modeled predictions. We performed a sensitivity analysis evaluating model performance of 6 different scenarios where habitat and exposure factors were weighted differently. We compared the model performance in each scenario by evaluating observed data vs. our model predictions using spearmans rank correlations. Horned Lark collision risk was predicted to be highest in the northwestern and west-central portions of the study region with lower risk predicted elsewhere. Red-eyed Vireo collision risk was predicted to be the highest in the eastern portions of the study region and in the forested areas of the western portion; the lowest risk was predicted in the treeless portions of the northwest portion of the study area. Mallard collision risk was predicted to be highest in the eastern central portion of the prairie potholes and in Iowa which has a high density of pothole wetlands; lower risk was predicted in the more arid portions of the study area. Predicted collision risk for American Avocet was similar to Mallard and was highest in the prairie pothole region and lower elsewhere. Golden Eagle collision risk was predicted to be highest in the mountainous areas of the western portion of the study area and lowest in the eastern portion of the prairie potholes. Whooping Crane predicted collision risk was highest within the migration corridor that the birds follow through in the central portion of the study region; predicted collision risk was much lower elsewhere. Red bat collision risk was highly driven by large tracts of forest and river corridors which made up most of the areas of higher collision risk. Silver-haired bat and hoary bat predicted collision risk were nearly identical and driven largely by forest and river corridors as well as locations with warmer temperatures, and lower average wind speeds. Horned Lark collisions were mostly influenced by abundance and predictions showed a moderate correlation between observed and predicted mortality (r = 0.55). Red bat, silver-haired bat, and hoary bat predictions were much higher and shown a strong correlations with observed mortality with correlations of 0.85, 0.90, and 0.91 respectively. Red bat collisions were influenced primarily by habitat, while hoary bat and silver-haired bat collisions were influenced mainly by exposure variables. Stronger correlations between observed and predicted collision for bats than for Horned Larks can likely be attributed to stronger habitat associations and greater influences of weather on behavior for bats. Although the collision predictions cannot be compared among species, our model outputs provide a convenient and easy landscape-level tool to quickly screen for siting issues at a high level. The model resolution is suitable for state or multi-county siting but users are cautioned against using these models for micrositing. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently released voluntary land-based wind energy guidelines for assessing impacts of a wind facility to wildlife using a tiered approach. The tiered approach uses an iterative approach for assessing impacts to wildlife in levels of increasing detail from landscape-level screening to site-specific field studies. Our models presented in this paper would be applicable to be used as tools to conduct screening at the tier 1 level and would not be appropriate to complete smaller scale tier 2 and tier 3 level studies. For smaller scale screening ancillary field studies should be conducted at the site-specific level to validate collision predictions.« less

Evaluation of the Tone Fan Noise Design/Prediction System (TFaNS) at the NASA Glenn Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, L. Danielle

1999-01-01

Version 1.4 of TFaNS, the Tone Fan Noise Design/Prediction System. has recently been evaluated at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Data from tests of the Allison Ultra High Bypass Fan (UHBF) were used to compare to predicted farfield directivities for the radial stator configuration. There was good agreement between measured and predicted directivities at low fan speeds when rotor effects were neglected in the TFaNS calculations. At higher fan speeds, TFaNS is shown to be useful in predicting overall trends rather than absolute sound pressure levels.

Helicopter rotor trailing edge noise. [noise prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schlinker, R. H.; Amier, R. K.

1981-01-01

A two dimensional section of a helicopter main rotor blade was tested in an acoustic wind tunnel at close to full-scale Reynolds numbers to obtain boundary layer data and acoustic data for use in developing an acoustic scaling law and testing a first principles trailing edge noise theory. Results were extended to the rotating frame coordinate system to develop a helicopter rotor trailing edge noise prediction. Comparisons of the calculated noise levels with helicopter flyover spectra demonstrate that trailing edge noise contributes significantly to the total helicopter noise spectrum at high frequencies. This noise mechanism is expected to control the minimum rotor noise. In the case of noise radiation from a local blade segment, the acoustic directivity pattern is predicted by the first principles trailing edge noise theory. Acoustic spectra are predicted by a scaling law which includes Mach number, boundary layer thickness and observer position. Spectrum shape and sound pressure level are also predicted by the first principles theory but the analysis does not predict the Strouhal value identifying the spectrum peak.

Serum Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin Predicts Survival After Resuscitation From Cardiac Arrest.

PubMed

Elmer, Jonathan; Jeong, Kwonho; Abebe, Kaleab Z; Guyette, Francis X; Murugan, Raghavan; Callaway, Clifton W; Rittenberger, Jon C

2016-01-01

In the first days after cardiac arrest, accurate prognostication is challenging. Serum biomarkers are a potentially attractive adjunct for prognostication and risk stratification. Our primary objective in this exploratory study was to identify novel early serum biomarkers that predict survival after cardiac arrest earlier than currently possible. Prospective, observational study. A single academic medical center. Adult subjects who sustained cardiac arrest with return of spontaneous circulation. None. We obtained blood samples from each subject at enrollment, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours after return of spontaneous circulation. We measured the serum levels of novel biomarkers, including neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, high-mobility group protein B1, intracellular cell adhesion molecule-1, and leptin, as well as previously characterized biomarkers, including neuron-specific enolase and S100B protein. Our primary outcome of interest was survival-to-hospital discharge. We compared biomarker concentrations at each time point between survivors and nonsurvivors and used logistic regression to test the unadjusted associations of baseline clinical characteristics and enrollment biomarker levels with survival. Finally, we constructed a series of adjusted models to explore the independent association of each enrollment biomarker level with survival. A total of 86 subjects were enrolled. Enrollment levels of high-mobility group protein B1, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, and S100B were higher in nonsurvivors than survivors. Enrollment leptin, neuron-specific enolase, and intracellular cell adhesion molecule-1 levels did not differ between nonsurvivors and survivors. The discriminatory power of enrollment neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin level was the greatest (c-statistic, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.66-0.90]) and remained stable across all time points. In our adjusted models, enrollment neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin level was independently associated with survival even after controlling for the development of acute kidney injury, and its addition to clinical models improved overall predictive accuracy. Serum neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin levels are strongly predictive of survival-to-hospital discharge after cardiac arrest.

Raised D-dimer levels in acute sickle cell crisis and their correlation with chest X-ray abnormalities

PubMed Central

Dar, Javeed; Mughal, Inam; Hassan, Hilali; Al Mekki, Taj E.; Chapunduka, Zivani; Hassan, Imad S. A.

2010-01-01

Objective: Quantitation of D-dimer level during a sickling crisis and its correlation with other clinical abnormalities. Design: Prospective longitudinal study. Setting: Armed Forces Hospital, Southern Region, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Patients: Adult patients (12 years and older) admitted acutely with a sickle cell crisis who consent to taking part in the study. Candidates may re-participate if they are readmitted with a further acute painful crisis. Results: 36 patients with homozygous sickle cell disease consented to take part in the study. D-dimer levels were raised in 31 (68.9%) of 45 episodes of painful crisis of whom 13 had an abnormal chest X-ray. Of those with a normal chest X-ray only one patient had a raised D-dimer level: sensitivity of 92.3%, specificity 40.6%, positive predictive value 38.7% and negative predictive value of 92.9% for an abnormal chest X-ray. Conclusion: D-dimer levels are frequently raised during an acute painful crisis. A normal level has a high negative predictive value for an abnormal chest X-ray. PMID:21063468

Raised D-dimer levels in acute sickle cell crisis and their correlation with chest X-ray abnormalities.

PubMed

Dar, Javeed; Mughal, Inam; Hassan, Hilali; Al Mekki, Taj E; Chapunduka, Zivani; Hassan, Imad S A

2010-10-08

Quantitation of D-dimer level during a sickling crisis and its correlation with other clinical abnormalities. Prospective longitudinal study. Armed Forces Hospital, Southern Region, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Adult patients (12 years and older) admitted acutely with a sickle cell crisis who consent to taking part in the study. Candidates may re-participate if they are readmitted with a further acute painful crisis. 36 patients with homozygous sickle cell disease consented to take part in the study. D-dimer levels were raised in 31 (68.9%) of 45 episodes of painful crisis of whom 13 had an abnormal chest X-ray. Of those with a normal chest X-ray only one patient had a raised D-dimer level: sensitivity of 92.3%, specificity 40.6%, positive predictive value 38.7% and negative predictive value of 92.9% for an abnormal chest X-ray. D-dimer levels are frequently raised during an acute painful crisis. A normal level has a high negative predictive value for an abnormal chest X-ray.

Account Deletion Prediction on RuNet: A Case Study of Suspicious Twitter Accounts Active During the Russian-Ukrainian Crisis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Volkova, Svitlana; Bell, Eric B.

Social networks are dynamically changing over time e.g., some accounts are being created and some are being deleted or become private. This ephemerality at both an account level and content level results from a combination of privacy concerns, spam, and deceptive behaviors. In this study we analyze a large dataset of 180,340 accounts active during the Russian-Ukrainian crisis to discover a series of predictive features for the removal or shutdown of a suspicious account. We find that unlike previously reported profile and net- work features, lexical features form the basis for highly accurate prediction of the deletion of an account.

Social Inclusion Predicts Lower Blood Glucose and Low-Density Lipoproteins in Healthy Adults.

PubMed

Floyd, Kory; Veksler, Alice E; McEwan, Bree; Hesse, Colin; Boren, Justin P; Dinsmore, Dana R; Pavlich, Corey A

2017-08-01

Loneliness has been shown to have direct effects on one's personal well-being. Specifically, a greater feeling of loneliness is associated with negative mental health outcomes, negative health behaviors, and an increased likelihood of premature mortality. Using the neuroendocrine hypothesis, we expected social inclusion to predict decreases in both blood glucose levels and low-density lipoproteins (LDLs) and increases in high-density lipoproteins (HDLs). Fifty-two healthy adults provided self-report data for social inclusion and blood samples for hematological tests. Results indicated that higher social inclusion predicted lower levels of blood glucose and LDL, but had no effect on HDL. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.

The NASA-LeRC wind turbine sound prediction code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viterna, L. A.

1981-01-01

Development of the wind turbine sound prediction code began as part of an effort understand and reduce the noise generated by Mod-1. Tone sound levels predicted with this code are in good agreement with measured data taken in the vicinity Mod-1 wind turbine (less than 2 rotor diameters). Comparison in the far field indicates that propagation effects due to terrain and atmospheric conditions may amplify the actual sound levels by 6 dB. Parametric analysis using the code shows that the predominant contributors to Mod-1 rotor noise are (1) the velocity deficit in the wake of the support tower, (2) the high rotor speed, and (3) off-optimum operation.

Maternal and child correlates of anxiety in 2½-year-old children.

PubMed

Mount, Kristin S; Crockenberg, Susan C; Jó, Patricia S Bárrig; Wagar, Jessica-Lyn

2010-12-01

The goal of this study was to predict the development of anxiety in 2½ year olds as a function of maternal anxiety and child inhibited temperament, and to test the mediating, moderating, and curvilinear effects of maternal sensitivity. Participants were 83 mothers and their 2½-year-old children (32 females). Maternal anxiety, child inhibition, and child anxiety were assessed by maternal report. Maternal sensitivity was rated based on the appropriateness and timeliness of mothers' responses to children's fear observed during their exposure to novel events in the laboratory and from mothers' diaries documenting their responses to children's fear in everyday situations. Gender predicted child anxiety, with mothers reporting girls as more anxious, as did child inhibition, with more inhibited children exhibiting more anxiety. Maternal sensitivity predicted child anxiety as a main effect and, in addition, inhibition moderated the curvilinear association of maternal sensitivity and child anxiety. For highly inhibited children, maternal sensitivity predicted anxiety in both a negative linear and a curvilinear fashion; anxiety decreased as maternal sensitivity increased up to a moderately high level, then increased at very high levels of maternal sensitivity. For less inhibited children, maternal sensitivity showed only a significant negative linear association with child anxiety. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The association between plasma big endothelin-1 levels at admission and long-term outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Wu, Shuang; Yang, Yan-Min; Zhu, Jun; Ren, Jia-Meng; Wang, Juan; Zhang, Han; Shao, Xing-Hui

2018-05-01

The prognostic role of big endothelin-1 (ET-1) in atrial fibrillation (AF) is unclear. We aimed to assess its predictive value in patients with AF. A total of 716 AF patients were enrolled and divided into two groups based on the optimal cut-off value of big ET-1 in predicting all-cause mortality. The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and major adverse events (MAEs). Cox regression analysis and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis were performed to assess the predictive value of big ET-1 on outcomes. With the optimal cut-off value of 0.55 pmol/L, 326 patients were classified into the high big ET-1 levels group. Cardiac dysfunction and left atrial dilation were factors related to high big ET-1 levels. During a median follow-up of 3 years, patients with big ET-1 ≥ 0.55 pmol/L had notably higher risk of all-cause death (44.8% vs. 11.5%, p < 0.001), MAEs (51.8% vs. 17.4%, p < 0.001), cardiovascular death, major bleeding, and tended to have higher thromboembolic risk. After adjusting for confounding factors, high big ET-1 level was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 2.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.46-3.05; p < 0.001), MAEs (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.50-2.80; p = 0.001), and cardiovascular death (HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.52-3.93; p < 0.001). NRI analysis showed that big ET-1 allowed a significant improvement of 0.32 in the accuracy of predicting the risk of both all-cause mortality and MAEs. Elevated big ET-1 levels is an independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality, MAEs, and cardiovascular death in patients with AF. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High Levels of Soluble C5b-9 Complex in Dialysis Fluid May Predict Poor Prognosis in Peritonitis in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients.

PubMed

Mizuno, Masashi; Suzuki, Yasuhiro; Higashide, Keiko; Sei, Yumi; Iguchi, Daiki; Sakata, Fumiko; Horie, Masanobu; Maruyama, Shoichi; Matsuo, Seiichi; Morgan, B Paul; Ito, Yasuhiko

2017-01-01

We searched for indicators to predict the prognosis of infectious peritonitis by measuring levels of complement proteins and activation products in peritoneal dialysis (PD) fluid (PDF) of patients at early stages of peritonitis. We retrospectively analyzed the relationship between the levels of sC5b-9, C3 and C4 in PDF and the subsequent clinical prognosis. We measured levels of sC5b-9, C3 and C4 in PDF on days 1, 2 and 5 post-onset of peritonitis in 104 episodes of infectious peritonitis in PD patients from 2008 and retrospectively compared levels with clinical outcomes. Further analysis for the presence of causative microorganisms or to demonstrate bacterial culture negative peritonitis was performed and correlated with change of levels of sC5b-9 in PDF. When PD patients with peritonitis were divided into groups that either failed to recover from peritonitis and were finally withdrawn from PD (group 1; n = 25) or recovered (group 2; n = 79), levels of sC5b-9, C3 and C4 in PDF were significantly higher in group 1 patients compared to those in group 2 on day5. Analysis of microorganisms showed significantly higher sC5b-9 levels in PDF of peritonitis cases caused by culture negative peritonitis in group 1 compared with group 2 when we analyzed for individual microorganisms. Of note, on day5, the sC5b-9 levels in PDF were similarly high in peritonitis caused by fungi or other organisms. Our results suggested that levels of complement markers in PDF, especially sC5b-9, have potential as surrogate markers to predict prognosis of PD-related peritonitis.

Cox-nnet: An artificial neural network method for prognosis prediction of high-throughput omics data.

PubMed

Ching, Travers; Zhu, Xun; Garmire, Lana X

2018-04-01

Artificial neural networks (ANN) are computing architectures with many interconnections of simple neural-inspired computing elements, and have been applied to biomedical fields such as imaging analysis and diagnosis. We have developed a new ANN framework called Cox-nnet to predict patient prognosis from high throughput transcriptomics data. In 10 TCGA RNA-Seq data sets, Cox-nnet achieves the same or better predictive accuracy compared to other methods, including Cox-proportional hazards regression (with LASSO, ridge, and mimimax concave penalty), Random Forests Survival and CoxBoost. Cox-nnet also reveals richer biological information, at both the pathway and gene levels. The outputs from the hidden layer node provide an alternative approach for survival-sensitive dimension reduction. In summary, we have developed a new method for accurate and efficient prognosis prediction on high throughput data, with functional biological insights. The source code is freely available at https://github.com/lanagarmire/cox-nnet.

Expectation and Surprise Determine Neural Population Responses in the Ventral Visual Stream

PubMed Central

Egner, Tobias; Monti, Jim M.; Summerfield, Christopher

2014-01-01

Visual cortex is traditionally viewed as a hierarchy of neural feature detectors, with neural population responses being driven by bottom-up stimulus features. Conversely, “predictive coding” models propose that each stage of the visual hierarchy harbors two computationally distinct classes of processing unit: representational units that encode the conditional probability of a stimulus and provide predictions to the next lower level; and error units that encode the mismatch between predictions and bottom-up evidence, and forward prediction error to the next higher level. Predictive coding therefore suggests that neural population responses in category-selective visual regions, like the fusiform face area (FFA), reflect a summation of activity related to prediction (“face expectation”) and prediction error (“face surprise”), rather than a homogenous feature detection response. We tested the rival hypotheses of the feature detection and predictive coding models by collecting functional magnetic resonance imaging data from the FFA while independently varying both stimulus features (faces vs houses) and subjects’ perceptual expectations regarding those features (low vs medium vs high face expectation). The effects of stimulus and expectation factors interacted, whereby FFA activity elicited by face and house stimuli was indistinguishable under high face expectation and maximally differentiated under low face expectation. Using computational modeling, we show that these data can be explained by predictive coding but not by feature detection models, even when the latter are augmented with attentional mechanisms. Thus, population responses in the ventral visual stream appear to be determined by feature expectation and surprise rather than by stimulus features per se. PMID:21147999

Prediction of maximal oxygen uptake by bioelectrical impedance analysis in overweight adolescents.

PubMed

Roberts, M D; Drinkard, B; Ranzenhofer, L M; Salaita, C G; Sebring, N G; Brady, S M; Pinchbeck, C; Hoehl, J; Yanoff, L B; Savastano, D M; Han, J C; Yanovski, J A

2009-09-01

Maximal oxygen uptake (VO(2max)), the gold standard for measurement of cardiorespiratory fitness, is frequently difficult to assess in overweight individuals due to physical limitations. Reactance and resistance measures obtained from bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) have been suggested as easily obtainable predictors of cardiorespiratory fitness, but the accuracy with which ht(2)/Z can predict VO(2max) has not previously been examined in overweight adolescents. The impedance index was used as a predictor of VO(2max) in 87 overweight girls and 47 overweight boys ages 12 to 17 with mean BMI of 38.6 + or - 7.3 and 42.5 + or - 8.2 in girls and boys respectively. The Bland Altman procedure assessed agreement between predicted and actual VO(2max). Predicted VO(2max) was significantly correlated with measured VO(2max) (r(2)=0.48, P<0.0001). Using the Bland Altman procedure, there was significant magnitude bias (r(2)=0.10; P<0.002). The limits of agreement for predicted relative to actual VO(2max) were -589 to 574 mL O(2)/min. The impedance index was highly correlated with VO(2max) in overweight adolescents. However, using BIA data to predict maximal oxygen uptake over-predicted VO(2max) at low levels of oxygen consumption and under-predicted VO(2max) at high levels of oxygen consumption. This magnitude bias, along with the large limits of agreement of BIA-derived predicted VO(2max), limit its usefulness in the clinical setting for overweight adolescents.

Individual and community risk factors and sexually transmitted diseases among arrested youths: a two level analysis.

PubMed

Dembo, Richard; Belenko, Steven; Childs, Kristina; Wareham, Jennifer; Schmeidler, James

2009-08-01

High rates of infection for chlamydia and gonorrhea have been noted among youths involved in the juvenile justice system. Although both individual and community-level factors have been found to be associated with sexually transmitted disease (STD) risk, their relative importance has not been tested in this population. A two-level logistic regression analysis was completed to assess the influence of individual-level and community-level predictors on STD test results among arrested youths processed at a centralized intake facility. Results from weighted two level logistic regression analyses (n = 1,368) indicated individual-level factors of gender (being female), age, race (being African American), and criminal history predicted the youths' positive STD status. For the community-level predictors, concentrated disadvantage significantly and positively predicted the youths' STD status. Implications of these findings for future research and public health policy are discussed.

Comparison of Performance Predictions for New Low-Thrust Trajectory Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Polsgrove, Tara; Kos, Larry; Hopkins, Randall; Crane, Tracie

2006-01-01

Several low thrust trajectory optimization tools have been developed over the last 3% years by the Low Thrust Trajectory Tools development team. This toolset includes both low-medium fidelity and high fidelity tools which allow the analyst to quickly research a wide mission trade space and perform advanced mission design. These tools were tested using a set of reference trajectories that exercised each tool s unique capabilities. This paper compares the performance predictions of the various tools against several of the reference trajectories. The intent is to verify agreement between the high fidelity tools and to quantify the performance prediction differences between tools of different fidelity levels.

Application of System Identification Methods for Decoding Imagined Single-Joint Movements in an Individual with High Tetraplegia

PubMed Central

Ajiboye, A. Bolu; Hochberg, Leigh R.; Donoghue, John P.; Kirsch, Robert F.

2013-01-01

This study investigated the decoding of imagined arm movements from M1 in an individual with high level tetraplegia. The participant was instructed to imagine herself performing a series of single-joint arm movements, aided by the visual cue of an animate character performing these movements. System identification was used offline to predict the trajectories of the imagined movements and compare these predictions to the trajectories of the actual movements. We report rates of 25 – 50% for predicting completely imagined arm movements in the absence of a priori movements to aid in decoder building. PMID:21096197

THE OCCURRENCE OF HIGH LEVELS OF LIPIDS IN FUNDULUS HETERCLITUS FROM A HIGHLY PCB CONTAIMINATED SITE

EPA Science Inventory

A population model constructed by Munns et al. (1997) for Fundulus heteroclitus predicts that populations in severely impacted ecosystems such as New Bedford Harbor, a highly PCB contaminated Superfund site, should be under severe stress. However, cursory assessment of the fish p...

Low Magnesium Levels and FGF-23 Dysregulation Predict Mitral Valve Calcification as well as Intima Media Thickness in Predialysis Diabetic Patients

PubMed Central

Jerónimo, Teresa; Fragoso, André; Silva, Claudia; Guilherme, Patrícia; Santos, Nélio; Faísca, Marília; Neves, Pedro

2015-01-01

Background. Mitral valve calcification and intima media thickness (IMT) are common complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD) implicated with high cardiovascular mortality. Objective. To investigate the implication of magnesium and fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23) levels with mitral valve calcification and IMT in CKD diabetic patients. Methods. Observational, prospective study involving 150 diabetic patients with mild to moderate CKD, divided according to Wilkins Score. Carotid-echodoppler and transthoracic echocardiography were used to assess calcification. Statistical tests used to establish comparisons between groups, to identify risk factors, and to establish cut-off points for prediction of mitral valve calcification. Results. FGF-23 values continually increased with higher values for both IMT and calcification whereas the opposite trend was observed for magnesium. FGF-23 and magnesium were found to independently predict mitral valve calcification and IMT (P < 0.05). Using Kaplan-Meier analysis, the number of deaths was higher in patients with lower magnesium levels and poorer Wilkins score. The mean cut-off value for FGF-23 was 117 RU/mL and for magnesium 1.7 mg/dL. Conclusions. Hypomagnesemia and high FGF-23 levels are independent predictors of mitral valve calcification and IMT and are risk factors for cardiovascular mortality in this population. They might be used as diagnostic/therapeutic targets in order to better manage the high cardiovascular risk in CKD patients. PMID:26089881

Sasang constitutional types for the risk prediction of metabolic syndrome: a 14-year longitudinal prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Lee, Sunghee; Lee, Seung Ku; Kim, Jong Yeol; Cho, Namhan; Shin, Chol

2017-09-02

To examine whether the use of Sasang constitutional (SC) types, such as Tae-yang (TY), Tae-eum (TE), So-yang (SY), and So-eum (SE) types, increases the accuracy of risk prediction for metabolic syndrome. From 2001 to 2014, 3529 individuals aged 40 to 69 years participated in a longitudinal prospective cohort. The Cox proportional hazard model was utilized to predict the risk of developing metabolic syndrome. During the 14 year follow-up, 1591 incident events of metabolic syndrome were observed. Individuals with TE type had higher body mass indexes and waist circumferences than individuals with SY and SE types. The risk of developing metabolic syndrome was the highest among individuals with the TE type, followed by the SY type and the SE type. When the prediction risk models for incident metabolic syndrome were compared, the area under the curve for the model using SC types was significantly increased to 0.8173. Significant predictors for incident metabolic syndrome were different according to the SC types. For individuals with the TE type, the significant predictors were age, sex, body mass index (BMI), education, smoking, drinking, fasting glucose level, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and triglyceride level. For Individuals with the SE type, the predictors were sex, smoking, fasting glucose, HDL cholesterol level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and triglyceride level, while the predictors in individuals with the SY type were age, sex, BMI, smoking, drinking, total cholesterol level, fasting glucose level, HDL cholesterol level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and triglyceride level. In this prospective cohort study among 3529 individuals, we observed that utilizing the SC types significantly increased the accuracy of the risk prediction for the development of metabolic syndrome.

Microdose-induced Drug-DNA Adducts as Biomarkers of Chemotherapy Resistance in Humans and Mice

PubMed Central

Zimmermann, Maike; Wang, Si-Si; Zhang, Hongyong; Lin, Tzu-yin; Malfatti, Michael; Haack, Kurt; Ognibene, Ted; Yang, Hongyuan; Airhart, Susan; Turteltaub, Kenneth W.; Cimino, George D.; Tepper, Clifford G.; Drakaki, Alexandra; Chamie, Karim; de Vere White, Ralph; Pan, Chong-xian; Henderson, Paul T.

2017-01-01

We report progress on predicting tumor response to platinum-based chemotherapy with a novel mass spectrometry approach. Fourteen bladder cancer patients were administered one diagnostic microdose each of [14C]carboplatin (1% of the therapeutic dose). Carboplatin-DNA adducts were quantified by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) in blood and tumor samples collected within 24 hours, and compared to subsequent chemotherapy response. Patients with the highest adduct levels were responders, but not all responders had high adduct levels. Four patient-derived bladder cancer xenograft mouse models were used to test the possibility that another drug in the regimen could cause a response. The mice were dosed with [14C]carboplatin or [14C]gemcitabine and the resulting drug-DNA adduct levels were compared to tumor response to chemotherapy. At least one of the drugs had to induce high drug-DNA adduct levels or create a synergistic increase in overall adducts to prompt a corresponding therapeutic response, demonstrating proof-of-principle for drug-DNA adducts as predictive biomarkers. PMID:27903751

Systematically Differentiating Functions for Alternatively Spliced Isoforms through Integrating RNA-seq Data

PubMed Central

Menon, Rajasree; Wen, Yuchen; Omenn, Gilbert S.; Kretzler, Matthias; Guan, Yuanfang

2013-01-01

Integrating large-scale functional genomic data has significantly accelerated our understanding of gene functions. However, no algorithm has been developed to differentiate functions for isoforms of the same gene using high-throughput genomic data. This is because standard supervised learning requires ‘ground-truth’ functional annotations, which are lacking at the isoform level. To address this challenge, we developed a generic framework that interrogates public RNA-seq data at the transcript level to differentiate functions for alternatively spliced isoforms. For a specific function, our algorithm identifies the ‘responsible’ isoform(s) of a gene and generates classifying models at the isoform level instead of at the gene level. Through cross-validation, we demonstrated that our algorithm is effective in assigning functions to genes, especially the ones with multiple isoforms, and robust to gene expression levels and removal of homologous gene pairs. We identified genes in the mouse whose isoforms are predicted to have disparate functionalities and experimentally validated the ‘responsible’ isoforms using data from mammary tissue. With protein structure modeling and experimental evidence, we further validated the predicted isoform functional differences for the genes Cdkn2a and Anxa6. Our generic framework is the first to predict and differentiate functions for alternatively spliced isoforms, instead of genes, using genomic data. It is extendable to any base machine learner and other species with alternatively spliced isoforms, and shifts the current gene-centered function prediction to isoform-level predictions. PMID:24244129

Predictors of emotional and physical dating violence in a sample of serious juvenile offenders.

PubMed

Sweeten, Gary; Larson, Matthew; Piquero, Alex R

2016-10-01

We estimate group-based dating violence trajectories and identify the adolescent risk factors that explain membership in each trajectory group. Using longitudinal data from the Pathways to Desistance Study, which follows a sample of 1354 serious juvenile offenders from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and Phoenix, Arizona between mid-adolescence and early adulthood, we estimate group-based trajectory models of both emotional dating violence and physical dating violence over a span of five years in young adulthood. We then estimate multinomial logistic regression models to identify theoretically motivated risk factors that predict membership in these groups. We identified three developmental patterns of emotional dating violence: none (33%), low-level (59%) and high-level decreasing (8%). The best-fitting model for physical dating violence also had three groups: none (73%), low-level (24%) and high-level (3%). Race/ethnicity, family and psychosocial variables were among the strongest predictors of both emotional and physical dating violence. In addition, delinquency history variables predicted emotional dating violence and relationship variables predicted physical dating violence. Dating violence is quite prevalent in young adulthood among serious juvenile offenders. Numerous predictors distinguish between chronic dating violence perpetrators and other groups. These may suggest points of intervention for reducing future violence. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Preclinical screening for retinopathy of prematurity risk using IGF1 levels at 3 weeks post-partum.

PubMed

Pérez-Muñuzuri, Alejandro; Couce-Pico, Maria Luz; Baña-Souto, Ana; López-Suárez, Olalla; Iglesias-Deus, Alicia; Blanco-Teijeiro, José; Fernández-Lorenzo, José Ramón; Fraga-Bermúdez, José María

2014-01-01

Following current recommendations for preventing retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) involves screening a large number of patients. We performed a prospective study to establish a useful screening system for ROP prediction and we have determined that measuring serum levels of IGF1 at week three and the presence of sepsis have a high predictive value for the subsequent development of ROP. A total of 145 premature newborn, with birthweight <1500 g and/or <32 weeks gestational age, were enrolled. 26.9% of them showed some form of retinopathy. A significant association was found between the development of retinopathy and each of the following variables: early gestational age, low birthweight, requiring mechanical ventilation, oxygen treatment, intracranial haemorrhage, sepsis during the first three weeks, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, the need for erythrocyte transfusion, erythropoietin treatment, and low levels of serum IGF1 in the third week. A multiple logistic regression analysis was used to obtain curves for the probability of developing ROP, based on the main factors linked with ROP, namely serum levels of IGF1 and presence of sepsis. Such preclinical screening has the ability to identify patients with high-risk of developing retinopathy and should lead to better prediction for ROP, while at the same time optimising the use of clinical resources, both human and material.

Obesigenic families: parents’ physical activity and dietary intake patterns predict girls’ risk of overweight

PubMed Central

Davison, K Krahnstoever; Birch, L Lipps

2008-01-01

OBJECTIVE To determine whether obesigenic families can be identified based on mothers’ and fathers’ dietary and activity patterns. METHODS A total of 197 girls and their parents were assessed when girls were 5 y old; 192 families were reassessed when girls were 7 y old. Measures of parents’ physical activity and dietary intake were obtained and entered into a cluster analysis to assess whether distinct family clusters could be identified. Girls’ skinfold thickness and body mass index (BMI) were also assessed and were used to examine the predictive validity of the clusters. RESULTS Obesigenic and a non-obesigenic family clusters were identified. Mothers and fathers in the obesigenic cluster reported high levels of dietary intake and low levels of physical activity, while mothers and fathers in the non-obesigenic cluster reported low levels of dietary intake and high levels of activity. Girls from families in the obesigenic cluster had significantly higher BMI and skinfold thickness values at age 7 and showed significantly greater increases in BMI and skinfold thickness from ages 5 to 7 y than girls from non-obesigenic families; differences were reduced but not eliminated after controlling for parents’ BMI. CONCLUSIONS Obesigenic families, defined in terms of parents’ activity and dietary patterns, can be used predict children’s risk of obesity. PMID:12187395

Soluble CD40L Is a Useful Marker to Predict Future Strokes in Patients With Minor Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack.

PubMed

Li, Jiejie; Wang, Yilong; Lin, Jinxi; Wang, David; Wang, Anxin; Zhao, Xingquan; Liu, Liping; Wang, Chunxue; Wang, Yongjun

2015-07-01

Elevated soluble CD40 ligand (sCD40L) was shown to be related to cardiovascular events, but the role of sCD40L in predicting recurrent stroke remains unclear. Baseline sCD40L levels were measured in 3044 consecutive patients with acute minor stroke and transient ischemic attack, who had previously been enrolled in the Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients With Acute Nondisabling Cerebrovascular Events (CHANCE) trial. Cox proportional-hazards model was used to assess the association of sCD40L with recurrent stroke. Patients in the top tertile of sCD40L levels had increased risk of recurrent stroke comparing with those in the bottom tertile, after adjusted for conventional confounding factors (hazard ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.00; P=0.008). The patients with elevated levels of both sCD40L and high-sensitive C-reactive protein also had increased risk of recurrent stroke (hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.68; P=0.003). Elevated sCD40L levels independently predict recurrent stroke in patients with minor stroke and transient ischemic attack. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00979589. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Influence of spirituality on depression, posttraumatic stress disorder, and suicidality in active duty military personnel.

PubMed

Hourani, Laurel L; Williams, Jason; Forman-Hoffman, Valerie; Lane, Marian E; Weimer, Belinda; Bray, Robert M

2012-01-01

Understanding the role of spirituality as a potential coping mechanism for military personnel is important given growing concern about the mental health issues of personnel returning from war. This study seeks to determine the extent to which spirituality is associated with selected mental health problems among active duty military personnel and whether it moderates the relationship between combat exposure/deployment and (a) depression, (b) posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and (c) suicidality in active duty military personnel. Data were drawn from the 2008 Department of Defense Survey of Health Related Behaviors Among Active Duty Military Personnel. Over 24,000 randomly selected active duty personnel worldwide completed an anonymous self-report questionnaire. High spirituality had a significant protective effect only for depression symptoms. Medium, as opposed to high or low, levels of spirituality buffered each of the mental health outcomes to some degree. Medium and low spirituality levels predicted depression symptoms but only among those with moderate combat exposure. Medium spirituality levels also predicted PTSD symptoms among those with moderate levels of combat exposure and predicted self-reported suicidal ideation/attempt among those never deployed. These results point to the complex relationship between spirituality and mental health, particularly among military personnel and the need for further research.

Systems Studies of DDT Transport

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harrison, H. L.; And Others

1970-01-01

Major consequences of present and additional environmental quantities of DDT pesticide are predictable by mathematical models of transport, accumulation and concentration mechanisms in the Wisconsin regional ecosystem. High solubility and stability produce increased DDT concentrations at high organism trophic levels within world biosphere…

Impact of marriage on HIV/AIDS risk behaviors among impoverished, at-risk couples: a multilevel latent variable approach.

PubMed

Stein, Judith A; Nyamathi, Adeline; Ullman, Jodie B; Bentler, Peter M

2007-01-01

Studies among normative samples generally demonstrate a positive impact of marriage on health behaviors and other related attitudes. In this study, we examine the impact of marriage on HIV/AIDS risk behaviors and attitudes among impoverished, highly stressed, homeless couples, many with severe substance abuse problems. A multilevel analysis of 368 high-risk sexually intimate married and unmarried heterosexual couples assessed individual and couple-level effects on social support, substance use problems, HIV/AIDS knowledge, perceived HIV/AIDS risk, needle-sharing, condom use, multiple sex partners, and HIV/AIDS testing. More variance was explained in the protective and risk variables by couple-level latent variable predictors than by individual latent variable predictors, although some gender effects were found (e.g., more alcohol problems among men). The couple-level variable of marriage predicted lower perceived risk, less deviant social support, and fewer sex partners but predicted more needle-sharing.

Serum ferritin in combination with prostate-specific antigen improves predictive accuracy for prostate cancer.

PubMed

Wang, Xijuan; An, Peng; Zeng, Jiling; Liu, Xiaoyan; Wang, Bo; Fang, Xuexian; Wang, Fudi; Ren, Guoping; Min, Junxia

2017-03-14

Ferritin is highly expressed in many cancer types. Although a few studies have reported an association between high serum ferritin levels and an increased risk of prostate cancer, the results are inconsistent. Therefore, we performed a large case-control study consisting of 2002 prostate cancer patients and 951 control patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). We found that high ferritin levels were positively associated with increased serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels and prostate cancer risk; each 100 ng/ml increase in serum ferritin increased the odds ratio (OR) by 1.20 (95% CI: 1.13-1.36). In the prostate cancer group, increased serum ferritin levels were significantly correlated with higher Gleason scores (p < 0.001). Notably, serum PSA values had even higher predictive accuracy among prostate cancer patients with serum ferritin levels > 400 ng/ml (Gleason score + total PSA correlation: r = 0.38; Gleason score + free PSA correlation: r = 0.49). Moreover, using immunohistochemistry, we found that prostate tissue ferritin levels were significantly higher (p < 0.001) in prostate cancer patients (n = 129) compared to BPH controls (n = 31). Prostate tissue ferritin levels were also highly correlated with serum ferritin when patients were classified by cancer severity (r = 0.81). Importantly, we found no correlation between serum ferritin levels and the inflammation marker C-reactive protein (CRP) in prostate cancer patients. In conclusion, serum ferritin is significantly associated with prostate cancer and may serve as a non-invasive biomarker to complement the PSA test in the diagnosis and prognostic evaluation of prostate cancer.

Performance prediction of high Tc superconducting small antennas using a two-fluid-moment method model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, G. G.; Khamas, S. K.; Kingsley, S. P.; Woods, R. C.

1992-01-01

The radar cross section and Q factors of electrically small dipole and loop antennas made with a YBCO high Tc superconductor are predicted using a two-fluid-moment method model, in order to determine the effects of finite conductivity on the performances of such antennas. The results compare the useful operating bandwidths of YBCO antennas exhibiting varying degrees of impurity with their copper counterparts at 77 K, showing a linear relationship between bandwidth and impurity level.

High Pressure Regenerative Turbine Engine: 21st Century Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lear, W. E.; Laganelli, A. L.; Senick, Paul (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A novel semi-closed cycle gas turbine engine was demonstrated and was found to meet the program goals. The proof-of-principle test of the High Pressure Regenerative Turbine Engine produced data that agreed well with models, enabling more confidence in designing future prototypes based on this concept. Emission levels were significantly reduced as predicted as a natural attribute of this power cycle. Engine testing over a portion of the operating range allowed verification of predicted power increases compared to the baseline.

Testing the generality of above-ground biomass allometry across plant functional types at the continent scale.

PubMed

Paul, Keryn I; Roxburgh, Stephen H; Chave, Jerome; England, Jacqueline R; Zerihun, Ayalsew; Specht, Alison; Lewis, Tom; Bennett, Lauren T; Baker, Thomas G; Adams, Mark A; Huxtable, Dan; Montagu, Kelvin D; Falster, Daniel S; Feller, Mike; Sochacki, Stan; Ritson, Peter; Bastin, Gary; Bartle, John; Wildy, Dan; Hobbs, Trevor; Larmour, John; Waterworth, Rob; Stewart, Hugh T L; Jonson, Justin; Forrester, David I; Applegate, Grahame; Mendham, Daniel; Bradford, Matt; O'Grady, Anthony; Green, Daryl; Sudmeyer, Rob; Rance, Stan J; Turner, John; Barton, Craig; Wenk, Elizabeth H; Grove, Tim; Attiwill, Peter M; Pinkard, Elizabeth; Butler, Don; Brooksbank, Kim; Spencer, Beren; Snowdon, Peter; O'Brien, Nick; Battaglia, Michael; Cameron, David M; Hamilton, Steve; McAuthur, Geoff; Sinclair, Jenny

2016-06-01

Accurate ground-based estimation of the carbon stored in terrestrial ecosystems is critical to quantifying the global carbon budget. Allometric models provide cost-effective methods for biomass prediction. But do such models vary with ecoregion or plant functional type? We compiled 15 054 measurements of individual tree or shrub biomass from across Australia to examine the generality of allometric models for above-ground biomass prediction. This provided a robust case study because Australia includes ecoregions ranging from arid shrublands to tropical rainforests, and has a rich history of biomass research, particularly in planted forests. Regardless of ecoregion, for five broad categories of plant functional type (shrubs; multistemmed trees; trees of the genus Eucalyptus and closely related genera; other trees of high wood density; and other trees of low wood density), relationships between biomass and stem diameter were generic. Simple power-law models explained 84-95% of the variation in biomass, with little improvement in model performance when other plant variables (height, bole wood density), or site characteristics (climate, age, management) were included. Predictions of stand-based biomass from allometric models of varying levels of generalization (species-specific, plant functional type) were validated using whole-plot harvest data from 17 contrasting stands (range: 9-356 Mg ha(-1) ). Losses in efficiency of prediction were <1% if generalized models were used in place of species-specific models. Furthermore, application of generalized multispecies models did not introduce significant bias in biomass prediction in 92% of the 53 species tested. Further, overall efficiency of stand-level biomass prediction was 99%, with a mean absolute prediction error of only 13%. Hence, for cost-effective prediction of biomass across a wide range of stands, we recommend use of generic allometric models based on plant functional types. Development of new species-specific models is only warranted when gains in accuracy of stand-based predictions are relatively high (e.g. high-value monocultures). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Use of admission serum lactate and sodium levels to predict mortality in necrotizing soft-tissue infections.

PubMed

Yaghoubian, Arezou; de Virgilio, Christian; Dauphine, Christine; Lewis, Roger J; Lin, Matthew

2007-09-01

Simple admission laboratory values can be used to classify patients with necrotizing soft-tissue infection (NSTI) into high and low mortality risk groups. Chart review. Public teaching hospital. All patients with NSTI from 1997 through 2006. Variables analyzed included medical history, admission vital signs, laboratory values, and microbiologic findings. Data analyses included univariate and classification and regression tree analyses. Mortality. One hundred twenty-four patients were identified with NSTI. The overall mortality rate was 21 of 124 (17%). On univariate analysis, factors associated with mortality included a history of cancer (P = .03), intravenous drug abuse (P < .001), low systolic blood pressure on admission (P = .03), base deficit (P = .009), and elevated white blood cell count (P = .06). On exploratory classification and regression tree analysis, admission serum lactate and sodium levels were predictors of mortality, with a sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 28%, positive predictive value of 23%, and negative predictive value of 100%. A serum lactate level greater than or equal to 54.1 mg/dL (6 mmol/L) alone was associated with a 32% mortality, whereas a serum sodium level greater than or equal to 135 mEq/L combined with a lactate level less than 54.1 mg/dL was associated with a mortality of 0%. Mortality for NSTIs remains high. A simple model, using admission serum lactate and serum sodium levels, may help identify patients at greatest risk for death.

A Study on the Application of the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) Model on Rational Drug Use Behavior among Second-Level Hospital Outpatients in Anhui, China.

PubMed

Bian, Cheng; Xu, Shuman; Wang, Heng; Li, Niannian; Wu, Jingya; Zhao, Yunwu; Li, Peng; Lu, Hua

2015-01-01

The high prevalence of risky irrational drug use behaviors mean that outpatients face high risks of drug resistance and even death. This study represents the first application of the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) model on rational drug use behavior among second-level hospital outpatients from three prefecture-level cities in Anhui, China. Using the IMB model, our study examined predictors of rational drug use behavior and determined the associations between the model constructs. This study was conducted with a sample of 1,214 outpatients aged 18 years and older in Anhui second-level hospitals and applied the structural equation model (SEM) to test predictive relations among the IMB model variables related to rational drug use behavior. Age, information and motivation had significant direct effects on rational drug use behavior. Behavioral skills as an intermediate variable also significantly predicted more rational drug use behavior. Female gender, higher educational level, more information and more motivation predicted more behavioral skills. In addition, there were significant indirect impacts on rational drug use behavior mediated through behavioral skills. The IMB-based model explained the relationships between the constructs and rational drug use behavior of outpatients in detail, and it suggests that future interventions among second-level hospital outpatients should consider demographic characteristics and should focus on improving motivation and behavioral skills in addition to the publicity of knowledge.

A critical state model for mudrock behavior at high stress levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidari, M.; Nikolinakou, M. A.; Flemings, P. B.

2016-12-01

Recent experimental work has documented that the compression behavior, friction angle, and lateral stress ratio (k0) of mudrocks vary over the stress range of 1 to 100 MPa. We integrate these observations into a critical state model. The internal friction angle and the slope of the compression curve are key parameters in a mudrock critical state model. Published models assume that these parameters do not depend on the stress level, and hence predict lateral stress and normalized strength ratios that do not change with the stress level. However, recent experimental data on resedimented mudrock samples from Eugene Island, Gulf of Mexico, demonstrate that all these parameters vary considerably with the stress level (Casey and Germaine, 2013; Casey et al., 2015). To represent these variations, we develop an enhanced critical state model that uses a stress-level-dependent friction angle and a curvilinear compression curve. We show that this enhanced model predicts the observed variations of the lateral stress and strength ratios. The successful performance of our model indicates that the critical state theory developed for soil can predict mudrock nonlinear behavior at high stress levels and thus can be used in modeling geologic systems. Casey, B., Germaine, J., 2013. Stress Dependence of Shear Strength in Fine-Grained Soils and Correlations with Liquid Limit. J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 139, 1709-1717. Casey, B., Germaine, J., Flemings, P.B., Fahy, B.P., 2015. Estimating horizontal stresses for mudrocks under one-dimensional compression. Mar. Pet. Geol. 65, 178-186.

A Study on the Application of the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) Model on Rational Drug Use Behavior among Second-Level Hospital Outpatients in Anhui, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Heng; Li, Niannian; Wu, Jingya; Zhao, Yunwu; Li, Peng; Lu, Hua

2015-01-01

Background The high prevalence of risky irrational drug use behaviors mean that outpatients face high risks of drug resistance and even death. This study represents the first application of the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) model on rational drug use behavior among second-level hospital outpatients from three prefecture-level cities in Anhui, China. Using the IMB model, our study examined predictors of rational drug use behavior and determined the associations between the model constructs. Methods This study was conducted with a sample of 1,214 outpatients aged 18 years and older in Anhui second-level hospitals and applied the structural equation model (SEM) to test predictive relations among the IMB model variables related to rational drug use behavior. Results Age, information and motivation had significant direct effects on rational drug use behavior. Behavioral skills as an intermediate variable also significantly predicted more rational drug use behavior. Female gender, higher educational level, more information and more motivation predicted more behavioral skills. In addition, there were significant indirect impacts on rational drug use behavior mediated through behavioral skills. Conclusions The IMB-based model explained the relationships between the constructs and rational drug use behavior of outpatients in detail, and it suggests that future interventions among second-level hospital outpatients should consider demographic characteristics and should focus on improving motivation and behavioral skills in addition to the publicity of knowledge. PMID:26275301

School-Level Genetic Variation Predicts School-Level Verbal IQ Scores: Results from a Sample of American Middle and High Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beaver, Kevin M.; Wright, John Paul

2011-01-01

Research has consistently revealed that average IQ scores vary significantly across macro-level units, such as states and nations. The reason for this variation in IQ, however, has remained at the center of much controversy. One of the more provocative explanations is that IQ across macro-level units is the result of genetic differences, but…

Temperament and Parenting during the First Year of Life Predict Future Child Conduct Problems

PubMed Central

Lahey, Benjamin B.; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Keenan, Kate; Rathouz, Paul J.; D’Onofrio, Brian M.; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Waldman, Irwin D.

2010-01-01

Predictive associations between parenting and temperament during the first year of life and child conduct problems were assessed longitudinally in 1,863 offspring of a representative sample of women. Maternal ratings of infant fussiness, activity level, predictability, and positive affect each independently predicted maternal ratings of conduct problems during ages 4–13 years. Furthermore, a significant interaction indicated that infants who were both low in fussiness and high in predictability were at very low risk for future conduct problems. Fussiness was a stronger predictor of conduct problems in boys whereas fearfulness was a stronger predictor in girls. Conduct problems also were robustly predicted by low levels of early mother-report cognitive stimulation. Interviewer-rated maternal responsiveness was a robust predictor of conduct problems, but only among infants low in fearfulness. Spanking during infancy predicted slightly more severe conduct problems, but the prediction was moderated by infant fussiness and positive affect. Thus, individual differences in risk for mother-rated conduct problems across childhood are already partly evident in maternal ratings of temperament during the first year of life and are predicted by early parenting and parenting-by-temperament interactions. PMID:18568397

Inter-view prediction of intra mode decision for high-efficiency video coding-based multiview video coding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Thaísa Leal; Agostini, Luciano Volcan; da Silva Cruz, Luis A.

2014-05-01

Intra prediction is a very important tool in current video coding standards. High-efficiency video coding (HEVC) intra prediction presents relevant gains in encoding efficiency when compared to previous standards, but with a very important increase in the computational complexity since 33 directional angular modes must be evaluated. Motivated by this high complexity, this article presents a complexity reduction algorithm developed to reduce the HEVC intra mode decision complexity targeting multiview videos. The proposed algorithm presents an efficient fast intra prediction compliant with singleview and multiview video encoding. This fast solution defines a reduced subset of intra directions according to the video texture and it exploits the relationship between prediction units (PUs) of neighbor depth levels of the coding tree. This fast intra coding procedure is used to develop an inter-view prediction method, which exploits the relationship between the intra mode directions of adjacent views to further accelerate the intra prediction process in multiview video encoding applications. When compared to HEVC simulcast, our method achieves a complexity reduction of up to 47.77%, at the cost of an average BD-PSNR loss of 0.08 dB.

A High Level of Intestinal Alkaline Phosphatase Is Protective Against Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Irrespective of Obesity.

PubMed

Malo, Madhu S

2015-12-01

Mice deficient in intestinal alkaline phosphatase (IAP) develop type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We hypothesized that a high level of IAP might be protective against T2DM in humans. We determined IAP levels in the stools of 202 diabetic patients and 445 healthy non-diabetic control people. We found that compared to controls, T2DM patients have approx. 50% less IAP (mean +/- SEM: 67.4 +/- 3.2 vs 35.3 +/- 2.5 U/g stool, respectively; p < 0.000001) indicating a protective role of IAP against T2DM. Multiple logistic regression analyses showed an independent association between the IAP level and diabetes status. With each 25 U/g decrease in stool IAP, there is a 35% increased risk of diabetes. The study revealed that obese people with high IAP (approx. 65 U/g stool) do not develop T2DM. Approx. 65% of the healthy population have < 65.0 U/g stool IAP, and predictably, these people might have 'the incipient metabolic syndrome', including 'incipient diabetes', and might develop T2DM and other metabolic disorders in the near future. In conclusion, high IAP levels appear to be protective against diabetes irrespective of obesity, and a 'temporal IAP profile' might be a valuable tool for predicting 'the incipient metabolic syndrome', including 'incipient diabetes'.

Piloted Simulation Study of the Effects of High-Lift Aerodynamics on the Takeoff Noise of a Representative High-Speed Civil Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glaab, Louis J.; Riley, Donald R.; Brandon, Jay M.; Person, Lee H., Jr.; Glaab, Patricia C.

1999-01-01

As part of an effort between NASA and private industry to reduce airport-community noise for high-speed civil transport (HSCT) concepts, a piloted simulation study was initiated for the purpose of predicting the noise reduction benefits that could result from improved low-speed high-lift aerodynamic performance for a typical HSCT configuration during takeoff and initial climb. Flight profile and engine information from the piloted simulation were coupled with the NASA Langley Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP) to estimate jet engine noise and to propagate the resulting source noise to ground observer stations. A baseline aircraft configuration, which also incorporated different levels of projected improvements in low-speed high-lift aerodynamic performance, was simulated to investigate effects of increased lift and lift-to-drag ratio on takeoff noise levels. Simulated takeoff flights were performed with the pilots following a specified procedure in which either a single thrust cutback was performed at selected altitudes ranging from 400 to 2000 ft, or a multiple-cutback procedure was performed where thrust was reduced by a two-step process. Results show that improved low-speed high-lift aerodynamic performance provides at least a 4 to 6 dB reduction in effective perceived noise level at the FAA downrange flyover measurement station for either cutback procedure. However, improved low-speed high-lift aerodynamic performance reduced maximum sideline noise levels only when using the multiple-cutback procedures.

Prediction of high-dimensional states subject to respiratory motion: a manifold learning approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wenyang; Sawant, Amit; Ruan, Dan

2016-07-01

The development of high-dimensional imaging systems in image-guided radiotherapy provides important pathways to the ultimate goal of real-time full volumetric motion monitoring. Effective motion management during radiation treatment usually requires prediction to account for system latency and extra signal/image processing time. It is challenging to predict high-dimensional respiratory motion due to the complexity of the motion pattern combined with the curse of dimensionality. Linear dimension reduction methods such as PCA have been used to construct a linear subspace from the high-dimensional data, followed by efficient predictions on the lower-dimensional subspace. In this study, we extend such rationale to a more general manifold and propose a framework for high-dimensional motion prediction with manifold learning, which allows one to learn more descriptive features compared to linear methods with comparable dimensions. Specifically, a kernel PCA is used to construct a proper low-dimensional feature manifold, where accurate and efficient prediction can be performed. A fixed-point iterative pre-image estimation method is used to recover the predicted value in the original state space. We evaluated and compared the proposed method with a PCA-based approach on level-set surfaces reconstructed from point clouds captured by a 3D photogrammetry system. The prediction accuracy was evaluated in terms of root-mean-squared-error. Our proposed method achieved consistent higher prediction accuracy (sub-millimeter) for both 200 ms and 600 ms lookahead lengths compared to the PCA-based approach, and the performance gain was statistically significant.

An asymptotic theory of supersonic propeller noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Envia, Edmane

1992-01-01

A theory for predicting the noise field of supersonic propellers with realistic blade geometries is presented. The theory, which utilizes a large-blade-count approximation, provides an efficient formula for predicting the radiation of sound from all three sources of propeller noise. Comparisons with a full numerical integration indicate that the levels predicted by this formula are quite accurate. Calculations also show that, for high speed propellers, the noise radiated by the Lighthill quadrupole source is rather substantial when compared with the noise radiated by the blade thickness and loading sources. Results from a preliminary application of the theory indicate that the peak noise level generated by a supersonic propeller initially increases with increasing tip helical Mach number, but is eventually reaches a plateau and does not increase further. The predicted trend shows qualitative agreement with the experimental observations.

The Missing Link: Delayed Emotional Development Predicts Challenging Behavior in Adults with Intellectual Disability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sappok, Tanja; Budczies, Jan; Dziobek, Isabel; Bölte, Sven; Dosen, Anton; Diefenbacher, Albert

2014-01-01

Individuals with intellectual disability (ID) show high rates of challenging behavior (CB). The aim of this retrospective study was to assess the factors underlying CB in an adult, clinical ID sample (n = 203). Low levels of emotional development (ED), as measured by the "Scheme of Appraisal of ED," predicted overall CB, specifically…

Realized gains from block-plot coastal Douglas-fir trials in the northern Oregon Cascades

Treesearch

Terrence Z. Ye; Keith J.S. Jayawickrama; J. Bradley St. Clair

2010-01-01

Realized gains for coastal Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) were evaluated using data collected from 15-year-old trees from five field trials planted in large block plots in the northern Oregon Cascades. Three populations with different genetic levels (elite--high predicted gain; intermediate--moderate predicted gain; and an...

Gallium 67 citrate scanning and serum angiotensin converting enzyme levels in sarcoidosis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gupta, R.G.; Bekerman, C.; Sicilian, L.

1982-09-01

Gallium 67 citrate scans and serum angiotension converting enzyme (ACE) levels were obtained in 54 patients with sarcoidosis and analyzed in relation to clinical manifestation. /sup 67/Ga scans were abnormal in 97% of patients with clinically active disease (n = 30) and in 71% of patients with inactive disease (n = 24). Serum ACE levels were abnormally high (2 standard deviations above the control mean) in 73% of patients with clinically active disease and in 54% of patients with inactive disease. Serum ACE levels correlated significantly with /sup 67/Ga uptake score (r = .436; p < .005). The frequency ofmore » abnormal /sup 67/Ga scans and elevated serum ACE levels suggests that inflammatory activity with little or no clinical expression is common in sarcoidosis. Abnormal /sup 67/Ga scans were highly sensitive (97%) but had poor specificity (29%) to clinical disease activity. The accuracy of negative prediction of clinical activity by normal scans (87%) was better than the accuracy of positive prediction of clinical activity by abnormal scans (63%). /sup 67/Ga scans can be used to support the clinical identification of inactive sarcoidosis.« less

Attachment style dimensions can affect prolonged grief risk in caregivers of terminally ill patients with cancer.

PubMed

Lai, Carlo; Luciani, Massimiliano; Galli, Federico; Morelli, Emanuela; Cappelluti, Roberta; Penco, Italo; Aceto, Paola; Lombardo, Luigi

2015-12-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictive role of attachment dimensions on the risk of prolonged grief. Sixty caregivers of 51 terminally ill patients with cancer who had been admitted in a hospice were selected. Caregivers were interviewed using Attachment Scale Questionnaire, Hamilton Depression Rating Scale, Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale, and Prolonged Grief Disorder 12 (PG-12). The consort caregivers showed higher PG-12 level compared to the sibling caregivers. Anxiety, depression, need for approval, and preoccupation with relationships levels were significantly correlated with PG-12 scores. Female gender, high levels of depression, and preoccupation with relationships significantly predicted higher levels of prolonged grief risk. © The Author(s) 2014.

High day 28 ST2 levels predict for acute graft-versus-host disease and transplant-related mortality after cord blood transplantation.

PubMed

Ponce, Doris M; Hilden, Patrick; Mumaw, Christen; Devlin, Sean M; Lubin, Marissa; Giralt, Sergio; Goldberg, Jenna D; Hanash, Alan; Hsu, Katharine; Jenq, Robert; Perales, Miguel-Angel; Sauter, Craig; van den Brink, Marcel R M; Young, James W; Brentjens, Renier; Kernan, Nancy A; Prockop, Susan E; O'Reilly, Richard J; Scaradavou, Andromachi; Paczesny, Sophie; Barker, Juliet N

2015-01-01

While cord blood transplantation (CBT) is an effective therapy for hematologic malignancies, acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) is a leading cause of transplant-related mortality (TRM). We investigated if biomarkers could predict aGVHD and TRM after day 28 in CBT recipients. Day 28 samples from 113 CBT patients were analyzed. Suppressor of tumorigenicity 2 (ST2) was the only biomarker associated with grades II-IV and III-IV aGVHD and TRM. Day 180 grade III-IV aGVHD in patients with high ST2 levels was 30% (95% confidence interval [CI], 18-43) vs 13% (95% CI, 5-23) in patients with low levels (P = .024). The adverse effect of elevated ST2 was independent of HLA match. Moreover, high day 28 ST2 levels were associated with increased TRM with day 180 estimates of 23% (95% CI, 13-35) vs 5% (95% CI, 1-13) if levels were low (P = .001). GVHD was the most common cause of death in high ST2 patients. High concentrations of tumor necrosis factor receptor-1, interleukin-8, and regenerating islet-derived protein 3-α were also associated with TRM. Our results are consistent with those of adult donor allografts and warrant further prospective evaluation to facilitate future therapeutic intervention to ameliorate severe aGVHD and further improve survival after CBT. © 2015 by The American Society of Hematology.

Role of spontaneous physical activity in prediction of susceptibility to activity based anorexia in male and female rats

PubMed Central

Perez-Leighton, Claudio; Grace, Martha; Billington, Charles J.; Kotz, Catherine M.

2015-01-01

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a chronic eating disorder affecting females and males, defined by body weight loss, higher physical activity levels and restricted food intake. Currently, the commonalities and differences between genders in etiology of AN are not well understood. Animal models of AN, such as activity-based anorexia (ABA), can be helpful in identifying factors determining individual susceptibility to AN. In ABA, rodents are given an access to a running wheel while food restricted, resulting in paradoxical increased physical activity levels and weight loss. Recent studies suggest that different behavioral traits, including voluntary exercise, can predict individual weight loss in ABA. A higher inherent drive for movement can promote development and severity of AN, but this hypothesis remains untested. In rodents and humans, drive for movement is defined as spontaneous physical activity (SPA), which is time spent in low-intensity, non-volitional movements. In this paper, we show that a profile of body weight history and behavioral traits, including SPA, can predict individual weight loss caused by ABA in male and female rats with high accuracy. Analysis of the influence of SPA on ABA susceptibility in males and females rats suggests that either high or low levels of SPA increase the probability of high weight loss in ABA, but with larger effects in males compared to females. These results suggest the same behavioral profile can identify individuals at-risk of AN for both male and female populations and that SPA has predictive value for susceptibility to AN. PMID:24912135

Inattention in primary school is not good for your future school achievement—A pattern classification study

PubMed Central

Bøe, Tormod; Lundervold, Arvid

2017-01-01

Inattention in childhood is associated with academic problems later in life. The contribution of specific aspects of inattentive behaviour is, however, less known. We investigated feature importance of primary school teachers’ reports on nine aspects of inattentive behaviour, gender and age in predicting future academic achievement. Primary school teachers of n = 2491 children (7–9 years) rated nine items reflecting different aspects of inattentive behaviour in 2002. A mean academic achievement score from the previous semester in high school (2012) was available for each youth from an official school register. All scores were at a categorical level. Feature importances were assessed by using multinominal logistic regression, classification and regression trees analysis, and a random forest algorithm. Finally, a comprehensive pattern classification procedure using k-fold cross-validation was implemented. Overall, inattention was rated as more severe in boys, who also obtained lower academic achievement scores in high school than girls. Problems related to sustained attention and distractibility were together with age and gender defined as the most important features to predict future achievement scores. Using these four features as input to a collection of classifiers employing k-fold cross-validation for prediction of academic achievement level, we obtained classification accuracy, precision and recall that were clearly better than chance levels. Primary school teachers’ reports of problems related to sustained attention and distractibility were identified as the two most important features of inattentive behaviour predicting academic achievement in high school. Identification and follow-up procedures of primary school children showing these characteristics should be prioritised to prevent future academic failure. PMID:29182663

Role of spontaneous physical activity in prediction of susceptibility to activity based anorexia in male and female rats.

PubMed

Perez-Leighton, Claudio E; Grace, Martha; Billington, Charles J; Kotz, Catherine M

2014-08-01

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a chronic eating disorder affecting females and males, defined by body weight loss, higher physical activity levels and restricted food intake. Currently, the commonalities and differences between genders in etiology of AN are not well understood. Animal models of AN, such as activity-based anorexia (ABA), can be helpful in identifying factors determining individual susceptibility to AN. In ABA, rodents are given an access to a running wheel while food restricted, resulting in paradoxical increased physical activity levels and weight loss. Recent studies suggest that different behavioral traits, including voluntary exercise, can predict individual weight loss in ABA. A higher inherent drive for movement may promote development and severity of AN, but this hypothesis remains untested. In rodents and humans, drive for movement is defined as spontaneous physical activity (SPA), which is time spent in low-intensity, non-volitional movements. In this paper, we show that a profile of body weight history and behavioral traits, including SPA, can predict individual weight loss caused by ABA in male and female rats with high accuracy. Analysis of the influence of SPA on ABA susceptibility in males and females rats suggests that either high or low levels of SPA increase the probability of high weight loss in ABA, but with larger effects in males compared to females. These results suggest that the same behavioral profile can identify individuals at-risk of AN for both male and female populations and that SPA has predictive value for susceptibility to AN. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inattention in primary school is not good for your future school achievement-A pattern classification study.

PubMed

Lundervold, Astri J; Bøe, Tormod; Lundervold, Arvid

2017-01-01

Inattention in childhood is associated with academic problems later in life. The contribution of specific aspects of inattentive behaviour is, however, less known. We investigated feature importance of primary school teachers' reports on nine aspects of inattentive behaviour, gender and age in predicting future academic achievement. Primary school teachers of n = 2491 children (7-9 years) rated nine items reflecting different aspects of inattentive behaviour in 2002. A mean academic achievement score from the previous semester in high school (2012) was available for each youth from an official school register. All scores were at a categorical level. Feature importances were assessed by using multinominal logistic regression, classification and regression trees analysis, and a random forest algorithm. Finally, a comprehensive pattern classification procedure using k-fold cross-validation was implemented. Overall, inattention was rated as more severe in boys, who also obtained lower academic achievement scores in high school than girls. Problems related to sustained attention and distractibility were together with age and gender defined as the most important features to predict future achievement scores. Using these four features as input to a collection of classifiers employing k-fold cross-validation for prediction of academic achievement level, we obtained classification accuracy, precision and recall that were clearly better than chance levels. Primary school teachers' reports of problems related to sustained attention and distractibility were identified as the two most important features of inattentive behaviour predicting academic achievement in high school. Identification and follow-up procedures of primary school children showing these characteristics should be prioritised to prevent future academic failure.

Predicting nutrient and sediment loadings to streams from landscape metrics: A multiple watershed study from the United States Mid-Atlantic Region

Treesearch

K. Bruce Jones; Anne C. Neale; Malisha S. Nash; Rick D. van Remortel; James D. Wickham; Kurt H. Riitters; Robert V. O' Neill

2001-01-01

There has been an increasing interest in evaluating the relative condition or health of water resources at regional and national scales. Of particular interest is an ability to identify those areas where surface and ground waters have the greatest potential for high levels of nutrient and sediment loadings. High levels of nutrient and sediment loadings can have adverse...

Antibodies to native DNA and serum complement (C3) levels. Application to diagnosis and classification of systemic lupus erythematosus.

PubMed

Weinstein, A; Bordwell, B; Stone, B; Tibbetts, C; Rothfield, N F

1983-02-01

The sensitivity and specificity of the presence of antibodies to native DNA and low serum C3 levels were investigated in a prospective study in 98 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus who were followed for a mean of 38.4 months. Hospitalized patients, patients with other connective tissue diseases, and subjects without any disease served as the control group. Seventy-two percent of the patients with systemic lupus erythematosus had a high DNA-binding value (more than 33 percent) initially, and an additional 20 percent had a high DNA-binding value later in the course of the illness. Similarly, C3 levels were low (less than 81 mg/100 ml) in 38 percent of the patients with systemic lupus erythematosus initially and in 66 percent of the patients at any time during the study. High DNA-binding and low C3 levels each showed extremely high predictive value (94 percent) for the diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus when applied in a patient population in which that diagnosis was considered. The presence of both abnormalities was 100 percent correct in predicting the diagnosis os systemic lupus erythematosus. Both tests should be included in future criteria for the diagnosis and classification of systemic lupus erythematosus.

Markers predicting response to bacillus Calmette-Guérin immunotherapy in high-risk bladder cancer patients: a systematic review.

PubMed

Zuiverloon, Tahlita C M; Nieuweboer, Annemieke J M; Vékony, Hedvig; Kirkels, Wim J; Bangma, Chris H; Zwarthoff, Ellen C

2012-01-01

Currently, bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) intravesical instillations are standard treatment for patients with high-grade non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer; however, no markers are available to predict BCG response. To review the contemporary literature on markers predicting BCG response, to discuss the key issues concerning the identification of predictive markers, and to provide recommendations for further research studies. We performed a systematic review of the literature using PubMed and Embase databases in the period 1996-2010. The free-text search was extended by adding the following keywords: recurrence, progression, survival, molecular marker, prognosis, TP53, Ki-67, RB, fibronectin, immunotherapy, cytokine, interleukin, natural killer, macrophage, PMN, polymorphism, SNP, single nucleotide polymorphism, and gene signature. If thresholds for the detection of urinary interleukin (IL)-8, IL-18, and tumour necrosis factor apoptosis-inducing ligand levels are standardised, measurement of these cytokines holds promise in the assessment of BCG therapy outcome. Studies on immunohistochemical markers (ie, TP53, Ki-67, and retinoblastoma) display contradictory results, probably because of the small patient groups that were used and seem unsuitable to predict BCG response. Exploring combinations of protein levels might prove to be more helpful to establish the effect of BCG therapy. Single nucleotide polymorphisms, either in cytokines or in genes involved in DNA repair, need to be investigated in different ethnicities before their clinical relevance can be determined. Measurement of urinary IL-2 levels seems to be the most potent marker of all the clinical parameters reviewed. IL-2 levels are currently the most promising predictive markers of BCG response. For future studies focusing on new biomarkers, it is essential to make more use of new biomedical techniques such as microRNA profiling and genomewide sequencing. Copyright © 2011 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

lazar: a modular predictive toxicology framework

PubMed Central

Maunz, Andreas; Gütlein, Martin; Rautenberg, Micha; Vorgrimmler, David; Gebele, Denis; Helma, Christoph

2013-01-01

lazar (lazy structure–activity relationships) is a modular framework for predictive toxicology. Similar to the read across procedure in toxicological risk assessment, lazar creates local QSAR (quantitative structure–activity relationship) models for each compound to be predicted. Model developers can choose between a large variety of algorithms for descriptor calculation and selection, chemical similarity indices, and model building. This paper presents a high level description of the lazar framework and discusses the performance of example classification and regression models. PMID:23761761

Interpersonal Stressors and Resources as Predictors of Adolescent Adjustment Following Traumatic Brain Injury.

PubMed

Lantagne, Ann; Peterson, Robin L; Kirkwood, Michael W; Taylor, H Gerry; Stancin, Terry; Yeates, Keith Owen; Wade, Shari L

2018-03-29

The present study sought to examine adolescents' perceptions of their interpersonal stressors and resources across parent, sibling, friend, and school relationships, and the longitudinal associations with self-reported adjustment after traumatic brain injury (TBI) over a 12-month period. We examined the main effects of stressors and resources on internalizing and externalizing symptoms in 152 adolescents who had sustained complicated mild-to-severe TBI. We also investigated the conjoint effects of stressors and resources and the moderating effects of TBI severity with stressors and resources on outcomes. High stressors consistently predicted worse adjustment. High resources were generally only associated with fewer internalizing symptoms. Main effects were qualified by interactions between school stressors and resources in predicting externalizing symptoms and between friend stressors and resources in predicting internalizing and externalizing symptoms. For school stressors, the effects of resources on externalizing symptoms functioned as a buffer. In comparison, the buffering effects of friend resources on internalizing and externalizing symptoms disappeared at moderate-to-high levels of friend stress. Moderating effects of TBI severity were also observed, such that as family resources increased, only adolescents with complicated mild-to-moderate TBI, but not those with severe TBI, experienced decreases in internalizing and eternalizing symptoms. Interpersonal stressors and social support have important implications for adolescent adjustment after TBI. Adolescents with low levels of school resources, with high levels of friend stress, and who sustain severe TBI are at greatest risk for difficulties with adjustment.

The paradox of high apolipoprotein A-I levels independently predicting incident type-2 diabetes among Turks.

PubMed

Onat, A; Hergenç, G; Bulur, S; Uğur, M; Küçükdurmaz, Z; Can, G

2010-06-25

Predictive value of apolipoprotein (apo) A-I for incident hypertension, metabolic syndrome (MetS), type 2 diabetes (DM) and coronary heart disease (CHD) needs further exploration. A representative sample of Turkish adults was studied with this purpose prospectively. Sex-specific apoA-I tertiles were examined regarding cardiometabolic risk. A total of 1044 men and 1067 women (aged 49+/-12 years at baseline) were followed up over 7.4 years. High serum apoA-I levels were significantly associated in multivariable analysis with female sex, aging, alcohol intake, (inversely) cigarette smoking and, in women, with systolic blood pressure. Risk of diabetes was predicted in logistic regression in both genders by top versus bottom apoA-I tertile (RR 1.98; [95%CI 1.31; 3.0]), additive to age, body mass index (BMI), C-reactive protein (CRP), HDL-cholesterol and lipid lowering drugs. By adding sex hormone-binding globulin to the model in a subset of the sample, the association between high apoA-I and incident diabetes was attenuated only in women. ApoA-I tertiles tended to be positively associated also with hypertension and CHD only in women but this did not reach significance. High compared with low serum apoA-I levels nearly double the risk for incident diabetes, additively to age, BMI, CRP, HDL-cholesterol among Turks. Systemic inflammation concomitant with prevailing MetS might turn apoA-I into proinflammatory particles. Copyright 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The sensitivity of particle pH to NH3: Can high NH3 cause London Fog conditions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, R. J.; Guo, H.; Nenes, A.

2017-12-01

High ammonia emissions from agriculture or other sources have been suggested to elevate ambient particle pH levels to near neutral acidity (pH=7), a condition that promotes rapid SO2 oxidation by NO2 to form aerosol sulfate concentration consistent with "London fog" levels. This mechanism has been used to explain pollution haze events in China. Predicted pH for locations in the US and Europe show fine particles are highly acidic with pH typically less than 2. The results are consistent with measured ammonia and nitric acid gas-particle partitioning, validating predicted pH levels. Using these data sets from representative sites around the world we conduct a thermodynamic analysis of aerosol pH and its sensitivity to ammonia levels. We find that particle pH, regardless of ammonia levels, is always acidic even for the unusually high ammonia levels found in highly polluted Asian cities, Beijing (pH=4.5) and Xi'an (pH=5), locations where sulfate production from NOx is proposed. These results indicate that sulfur dioxide oxidation through a NO2-mediated pathway is not likely in China, nor any other region of the world (e.g., US, Mediterranean) since the fine aerosol is consistently acidic. The mildly acidic conditions would, however, permit rapid oxidation of sulfur dioxide through transition metal chemistry. The limited alkalinity from the carbonate buffer in dust and seasalt can provide the only likely set of conditions where NO2-mediated oxidation of SO2 outcompetes with other well-established pathways.

Body mass index for predicting hyperglycemia and serum lipid changes in Brazilian adolescents.

PubMed

Vieira, Ana Carolina R; Alvarez, Marlene M; Kanaan, Salim; Sichieri, Rosely; Veiga, Gloria V

2009-02-01

To determine the best cut-offs of body mass index for identifying alterations of blood lipids and glucose in adolescents. A probabilistic sample including 577 adolescent students aged 12-19 years in 2003 (210 males and 367 females) from state public schools in the city of Niterói, Southeastern Brazil, was studied. The Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to identify the best age-adjusted BMI cut-off for predicting high levels of serum total cholesterol (> or =150 mg/dL), LDL-C (> or =100 mg/dL), serum triglycerides (> or =100 mg/dL), plasma glucose (> 100 mg/dL) and low levels of HDL-C (< 45 mg/dL). Four references were used to calculate sensitivity and specificity of BMI cut-offs: one Brazilian, one international and two American. The most prevalent metabolic alterations (>50%) were: high total cholesterol and low HDL-C. BMI predicted high levels of triglycerides in males, high LDL-C in females, and high total cholesterol and the occurrence of three or more metabolic alterations in both males and females (areas under the curve range: 0.59 to 0.67), with low sensitivity (57%-66%) and low specificity (58%-66%). The best BMI cut-offs for this sample (20.3 kg/m(2) to 21.0 kg/m(2)) were lower than those proposed in the references studied. Although BMI values lower than the International cut-offs were better predictor of some metabolic abnormalities in Brazilian adolescents, overall BMI is not a good predictor of these abnormalities in this population.

Protective factors can mitigate behavior problems after prenatal cocaine and other drug exposures.

PubMed

Bada, Henrietta S; Bann, Carla M; Whitaker, Toni M; Bauer, Charles R; Shankaran, Seetha; Lagasse, Linda; Lester, Barry M; Hammond, Jane; Higgins, Rosemary

2012-12-01

We determined the role of risk and protective factors on the trajectories of behavior problems associated with high prenatal cocaine exposure (PCE)/polydrug exposure. The Maternal Lifestyle Study enrolled 1388 children with or without PCE, assessed through age 15 years. Because most women using cocaine during pregnancy also used other substances, we analyzed for the effects of 4 categories of prenatal drug exposure: high PCE/other drugs (OD), some PCE/OD, OD/no PCE, and no PCE/no OD. Risks and protective factors at individual, family, and community levels that may be associated with behavior outcomes were entered stepwise into latent growth curve models, then replaced by cumulative risk and protective indexes, and finally by a combination of levels of risk and protective indexes. Main outcome measures were the trajectories of externalizing, internalizing, total behavior, and attention problems scores from the Child Behavior Checklist (parent). A total of 1022 (73.6%) children had known outcomes. High PCE/OD significantly predicted externalizing, total, and attention problems when considering the balance between risk and protective indexes. Some PCE/OD predicted externalizing and attention problems. OD/no PCE also predicted behavior outcomes except for internalizing behavior. High level of protective factors was associated with declining trajectories of problem behavior scores over time, independent of drug exposure and risk index scores. High PCE/OD is a significant risk for behavior problems in adolescence; protective factors may attenuate its detrimental effects. Clinical practice and public health policies should consider enhancing protective factors while minimizing risks to improve outcomes of drug-exposed children.

Estimating spatiotemporal distribution of PM1 concentrations in China with satellite remote sensing, meteorology, and land use information.

PubMed

Chen, Gongbo; Knibbs, Luke D; Zhang, Wenyi; Li, Shanshan; Cao, Wei; Guo, Jianping; Ren, Hongyan; Wang, Boguang; Wang, Hao; Williams, Gail; Hamm, N A S; Guo, Yuming

2018-02-01

PM 1 might be more hazardous than PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 1 μm and ≤2.5 μm, respectively). However, studies on PM 1 concentrations and its health effects are limited due to a lack of PM 1 monitoring data. To estimate spatial and temporal variations of PM 1 concentrations in China during 2005-2014 using satellite remote sensing, meteorology, and land use information. Two types of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, Dark Target (DT) and Deep Blue (DB), were combined. Generalised additive model (GAM) was developed to link ground-monitored PM 1 data with AOD data and other spatial and temporal predictors (e.g., urban cover, forest cover and calendar month). A 10-fold cross-validation was performed to assess the predictive ability. The results of 10-fold cross-validation showed R 2 and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) for monthly prediction were 71% and 13.0 μg/m 3 , respectively. For seasonal prediction, the R 2 and RMSE were 77% and 11.4 μg/m 3 , respectively. The predicted annual mean concentration of PM 1 across China was 26.9 μg/m 3 . The PM 1 level was highest in winter while lowest in summer. Generally, the PM 1 levels in entire China did not substantially change during the past decade. Regarding local heavy polluted regions, PM 1 levels increased substantially in the South-Western Hebei and Beijing-Tianjin region. GAM with satellite-retrieved AOD, meteorology, and land use information has high predictive ability to estimate ground-level PM 1 . Ambient PM 1 reached high levels in China during the past decade. The estimated results can be applied to evaluate the health effects of PM 1 . Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perception Matters for Clinical Perfectionism and Social Anxiety

PubMed Central

Levinson, Cheri A.; Rodebaugh, Thomas L.; Shumaker, Erik A.; Menatti, Andrew R.; Weeks, Justin W.; White, Emily K.; Heimberg, Richard G.; Warren, Cortney S.; Blanco, Carlos; Schneier, Franklin; Liebowitz, Michael R.

2014-01-01

Despite research documenting a relationship between social anxiety and perfectionism, very little research has examined the relationship between social anxiety and clinical perfectionism, defined as the combination of high personal standards and high maladaptive perfectionistic evaluative concern. In the current studies we examined whether clinical perfectionism predicted social anxiety in a large sample of undergraduates (N = 602), in a clinical sample of participants diagnosed with social anxiety disorder (SAD; N = 180), and by using a variance decomposition model of self-and informant-report of perfectionism (N = 134). Using self-report, we found that an interaction of personal standards and evaluative concern predicted both social interaction anxiety and fear of scrutiny, but not in the theorized direction. Specifically, we found that self-report of low standards and high evaluative concern was associated with the highest levels of social anxiety, suggesting that when individuals with SAD hold low expectations for themselves combined with high concerns about evaluation, social anxiety symptoms may increase. Alternatively, when an informants’ perspective was considered, and more consistent with the original theory, we found that the interaction of informant-only report of personal standards and shared-report (between both primary participant and informant) of concern over mistakes was associated with self-reported social anxiety, such that high concern over mistakes and high personal standards predicted the highest levels of social anxiety. Theoretical, clinical, and measurement implications for clinical perfectionism are discussed. PMID:25486087

Predicting Risky Sexual Behavior: the Unique and Interactive Roles of Childhood Conduct Disorder Symptoms and Callous-Unemotional Traits.

PubMed

Anderson, Sarah L; Zheng, Yao; McMahon, Robert J

2017-08-01

Conduct disorder (CD) symptoms and callous-unemotional (CU) traits have been shown to be uniquely associated with risky sexual behavior (RSB) in adolescence and early adulthood, yet their interactive role in predicting RSB remains largely unknown. This study aimed to investigate the predictive value of CD symptoms and CU traits, as well as their interaction, on several RSB outcomes in adolescence and early adulthood. A total of 683 participants (41.7 % female, 47.4 % African American) were followed annually and self-reported age of first sexual intercourse, frequency of condom use, pregnancy, contraction of sexually transmitted infections, and engagement in sexual solicitation from grade 7 to 2-years post-high school. CD symptoms predicted age of first sexual intercourse, condom use, and sexual solicitation. CU traits predicted age of first sexual intercourse and pregnancy. Their interaction predicted a composite score of these RSBs such that CD symptoms positively predicted the composite score among those with high levels of CU traits but not among those with low levels of CU traits. The current findings provide information regarding the importance of both CD symptoms and CU traits in understanding adolescent and early adulthood RSB, as well as the benefits of examining multiple RSB outcomes during this developmental period. These findings have implications for the development and implementation of preventive efforts to target these risky behaviors among adolescents and young adults.

Psychopathic Traits and Moral Disengagement Interact to Predict Bullying and Cyberbullying Among Adolescents.

PubMed

Orue, Izaskun; Calvete, Esther

2016-07-01

The aim of this study was to test a model in which psychopathic traits (callous-unemotional, grandiose-manipulative, and impulsive-irresponsible) and moral disengagement individually and interactively predict two types of bullying (traditional and cyberbullying) in a community sample of adolescents. A total of 765 adolescents (464 girls and 301 boys) completed measures of moral disengagement and psychopathic traits at Time 1, and measures of bullying and cyberbullying at Time 1 and 1 year later, at Time 2. The results showed that callous-unemotional traits predicted both traditional bullying and cyberbullying, grandiose-manipulative and impulsive-irresponsible traits only predicted traditional bullying, and moral disengagement only predicted cyberbullying. Callous-Unemotional Traits × Moral Disengagement and Grandiose-Manipulative × Moral Disengagement were significantly correlated with the residual change in cyberbullying. Callous-unemotional traits were positively related to cyberbullying at high levels of moral disengagement but not when moral disengagement was low. In contrast, grandiose-manipulative traits were positively related to cyberbullying at low levels of moral disengagement but not when moral disengagement was high. These findings have implications for both prevention and intervention. Integrative approaches that promote moral growth are needed, including a deeper understanding of why bullying is morally wrong and ways to stimulate personality traits that counteract psychopathic traits.

An Evaluation of Population Density Mapping and Built up Area Estimates in Sri Lanka Using Multiple Methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engstrom, R.; Soundararajan, V.; Newhouse, D.

2017-12-01

In this study we examine how well multiple population density and built up estimates that utilize satellite data compare in Sri Lanka. The population relationship is examined at the Gram Niladhari (GN) level, the lowest administrative unit in Sri Lanka from the 2011 census. For this study we have two spatial domains, the whole country and a 3,500km2 sub-sample, for which we have complete high spatial resolution imagery coverage. For both the entire country and the sub-sample we examine how consistent are the existing publicly available measures of population constructed from satellite imagery at predicting population density? For just the sub-sample we examine how well do a suite of values derived from high spatial resolution satellite imagery predict population density and how does our built up area estimate compare to other publicly available estimates. Population measures were obtained from the Sri Lankan census, and were downloaded from Facebook, WorldPoP, GPW, and Landscan. Percentage built-up area at the GN level was calculated from three sources: Facebook, Global Urban Footprint (GUF), and the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL). For the sub-sample we have derived a variety of indicators from the high spatial resolution imagery. Using deep learning convolutional neural networks, an object oriented, and a non-overlapping block, spatial feature approach. Variables calculated include: cars, shadows (a proxy for building height), built up area, and buildings, roof types, roads, type of agriculture, NDVI, Pantex, and Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG) and others. Results indicate that population estimates are accurate at the higher, DS Division level but not necessarily at the GN level. Estimates from Facebook correlated well with census population (GN correlation of 0.91) but measures from GPW and WorldPop are more weakly correlated (0.64 and 0.34). Estimates of built-up area appear to be reliable. In the 32 DSD-subsample, Facebook's built- up area measure is highly correlated with our built-up measure (correlation of 0.9). Preliminary regression results based on variables selected from Lasso-regressions indicate that satellite indicators have exceptionally strong predictive power in predicting GN level population level and density with an out of sample r-squared of 0.75 and 0.72 respectively.

Extremely Long-Lived Stigmas Allow Extended Cross-Pollination Opportunities in a High Andean Plant

PubMed Central

Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Gómez-González, Susana; Stotz, Gisela C.; Torres-Morales, Patricio; Paredes, Brayam; Pérez-Millaqueo, Matías; Gianoli, Ernesto

2011-01-01

High-elevation ecosystems are traditionally viewed as environments in which predominantly autogamous breeding systems should be selected because of the limited pollinator availability. Chaetanthera renifolia (Asteraceae) is an endemic monocarpic triennial herb restricted to a narrow altitudinal range within the high Andes of central Chile (3300–3500 m a.s.l.), just below the vegetation limit. This species displays one of the larger capitulum within the genus. Under the reproductive assurance hypothesis, and considering its short longevity (monocarpic triennial), an autogamous breeding system and low levels of pollen limitation would be predicted for C. renifolia. In contrast, considering its large floral size, a xenogamous breeding system, and significant levels of pollen limitation could be expected. In addition, the increased pollination probability hypothesis predicts prolonged stigma longevity for high alpine plants. We tested these alternative predictions by performing experimental crossings in the field to establish the breeding system and to measure the magnitude of pollen limitation in two populations of C. renifolia. In addition, we measured the stigma longevity in unpollinated and open pollinated capitula, and pollinator visitation rates in the field. We found low levels of self-compatibility and significant levels of pollen limitation in C. renifolia. Pollinator visitation rates were moderate (0.047–0.079 visits per capitulum per 30 min). Although pollinator visitation rate significantly differed between populations, they were not translated into differences in achene output. Finally, C. renifolia stigma longevity of unpollinated plants was extremely long and significantly higher than that of open pollinated plants (26.3±2.8 days vs. 10.1±2.2, respectively), which gives support to the increased pollination probability hypothesis for high-elevation flowering plants. Our results add to a growing number of studies that show that xenogamous breeding systems and mechanisms to increase pollination opportunities can be selected in high-elevation ecosystems. PMID:21573159

Does more mean less? The value of information for conservation planning under sea level rise.

PubMed

Runting, Rebecca K; Wilson, Kerrie A; Rhodes, Jonathan R

2013-02-01

Many studies have explored the benefits of adopting more sophisticated modelling techniques or spatial data in terms of our ability to accurately predict ecosystem responses to global change. However, we currently know little about whether the improved predictions will actually lead to better conservation outcomes once the costs of gaining improved models or data are accounted for. This severely limits our ability to make strategic decisions for adaptation to global pressures, particularly in landscapes subject to dynamic change such as the coastal zone. In such landscapes, the global phenomenon of sea level rise is a critical consideration for preserving biodiversity. Here, we address this issue in the context of making decisions about where to locate a reserve system to preserve coastal biodiversity with a limited budget. Specifically, we determined the cost-effectiveness of investing in high-resolution elevation data and process-based models for predicting wetland shifts in a coastal region of South East Queensland, Australia. We evaluated the resulting priority areas for reserve selection to quantify the cost-effectiveness of investment in better quantifying biological and physical processes. We show that, in this case, it is considerably more cost effective to use a process-based model and high-resolution elevation data, even if this requires a substantial proportion of the project budget to be expended (up to 99% in one instance). The less accurate model and data set failed to identify areas of high conservation value, reducing the cost-effectiveness of the resultant conservation plan. This suggests that when developing conservation plans in areas where sea level rise threatens biodiversity, investing in high-resolution elevation data and process-based models to predict shifts in coastal ecosystems may be highly cost effective. A future research priority is to determine how this cost-effectiveness varies among different regions across the globe. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Measurement and Modeling of Acoustic Fields in a Gel Phantom at High Intensities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canney, Michael S.; Bailey, Michael R.; Khokhlova, Vera A.; Crum, Lawrence A.

2006-05-01

The goal of this work was to compare measured and numerically predicted HIFU pressure waveforms in water and a tissue-mimicking phantom. Waveforms were measured at the focus of a 2-MHz HIFU transducer with a fiber optic hydrophone. The transducer was operated with acoustic powers ranging from 2W to 300W. A KZK-type equation was used for modeling the experimental conditions. Strongly asymmetric nonlinear waves with peak positive pressure up to 80 MPa and peak negative pressure up to 20 MPa were measured in water, while waves up to 50 MPa peak positive pressure and 15 MPa peak negative pressure were measured in tissue phantoms. The values of peak negative pressure corresponded well with numerical simulations and were significantly smaller than predicted by linear extrapolation from low-level measurements. The values of peak positive pressures differed only at high levels of excitation where bandwidth limitations of the hydrophone failed to fully capture the predicted sharp shock fronts.

Understanding the relationships between self-esteem, experiential avoidance, and paranoia: structural equation modelling and experience sampling studies.

PubMed

Udachina, Alisa; Thewissen, Viviane; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Fitzpatrick, Sam; O'kane, Aisling; Bentall, Richard P

2009-09-01

Hypothesized relationships between experiential avoidance (EA), self-esteem, and paranoia were tested using structural equation modeling in a sample of student participants (N = 427). EA in everyday life was also investigated using the Experience Sampling Method in a subsample of students scoring high (N = 17) and low (N = 15) on paranoia. Results showed that paranoid students had lower self-esteem and reported higher levels of EA than nonparanoid participants. The interactive influence of EA and stress predicted negative self-esteem: EA was particularly damaging at high levels of stress. Greater EA and higher social stress independently predicted lower positive self-esteem. Low positive self-esteem predicted engagement in EA. A direct association between EA and paranoia was also found. These results suggest that similar mechanisms may underlie EA and thought suppression. Although people may employ EA to regulate self-esteem, this strategy is maladaptive as it damages self-esteem, incurs cognitive costs, and fosters paranoid thinking.

Definition of perspective scheme of organization of traffic using methods of forecasting and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlasov, V. M.; Novikov, A. N.; Novikov, I. A.; Shevtsova, A. G.

2018-03-01

In the environment of highly developed urban agglomerations, one of the main problems arises - inability of the road network to reach a high level of motorization. The introduction of intelligent transport systems allows solving this problem, but the main issue in their implementation remains open: to what extent this or that method of improving the transport network will be effective and whether it is able to solve the problem of vehicle growth especially for the long-term period. The main goal of this work was the development of an approach to forecasting the increase in the intensity of traffic flow for a long-term period using the population and the level of motorization. The developed approach made it possible to determine the projected population and, taking into account the level of motorization, to determine the growth factor of the traffic flow intensity, which allows calculating the intensity value for a long-term period with high accuracy. The analysis of the main methods for predicting the characteristics of the transport stream is performed. The basic values and parameters necessary for their use are established. The analysis of the urban settlement is carried out and the level of motorization characteristic for the given locality is determined. A new approach to predicting the intensity of the traffic flow has been developed, which makes it possible to predict the change in the transport situation in the long term in high accuracy. Calculations of the magnitude of the intensity increase on the basis of the developed forecasting method are made and the errors in the data obtained are determined. The main recommendations on the use of the developed forecasting approach for the long-term functioning of the road network are formulated.

Sustained medically unexplained physical symptoms in euthymic patients with recurrent depression: predictive value for recurrence and associations with omega 3- and 6 fatty acids and 5-HTTLPR?

PubMed

Lok, Anja; Assies, Johanna; Koeter, Maarten W J; Bockting, Claudi L H; Wouters, Luuk F; Mocking, Roel J T; Schene, Aart H

2012-02-01

Identification of potentially modifiable risk factors for recurrence in recurrent depression could provide opportunities to improve preventive interventions. In this study we aimed to examine the predictive value of medically unexplained physical symptoms (MUPS) on time to recurrence in recurrent depression. Additionally, to elucidate pathophysiological mechanisms that could explain the relations between MUPS and depression, we investigate the association between a sustained high level of MUPS, and (I) omega (ω)-3 and -6 fatty acid (FA)-status and (II) functional polymorphisms in the promoter region of the serotonin transporter gene (5-HTTLPR). Based on three Physical Symptom Checklist (PCS) scores over 12 months, we defined two groups of remitted recurrently depressed patients: 41 patients with a sustained high number of MUPS and 34 patients with a sustained low number or no MUPS. Patients were followed-up for 3.5 years while recurrence of their depression was monitored. In addition, we analyzed patients' erythrocyte's FA-profiles and triallelically genotyped their 5-HTTLPR. A sustained high level of MUPS predicted consecutive depression recurrence over 3.5 years (adjusted relative risk 2.8). FA-status and distribution of 5-HTTLPR variant frequencies did not differ between patients with sustained high compared to low/absent MUPS-levels. Our sample was relatively small. Remitted recurrently depressed patients with sustained MUPS have a considerably increased risk of recurrence. Having sustained MUPS is not associated with either erythrocyte ω-3 or -6 FA-levels or 5-HTTLPR polymorphism. Recognition and reducing MUPS in an early state could prevent a (depressive) relapse. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thin-slice vision: inference of confidence measure from perceptual video quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hameed, Abdul; Balas, Benjamin; Dai, Rui

2016-11-01

There has been considerable research on thin-slice judgments, but no study has demonstrated the predictive validity of confidence measures when assessors watch videos acquired from communication systems, in which the perceptual quality of videos could be degraded by limited bandwidth and unreliable network conditions. This paper studies the relationship between high-level thin-slice judgments of human behavior and factors that contribute to perceptual video quality. Based on a large number of subjective test results, it has been found that the confidence of a single individual present in all the videos, called speaker's confidence (SC), could be predicted by a list of features that contribute to perceptual video quality. Two prediction models, one based on artificial neural network and the other based on a decision tree, were built to predict SC. Experimental results have shown that both prediction models can result in high correlation measures.

Will male advertisement be a reliable indicator of paternal care, if offspring survival depends on male care?

PubMed Central

Kelly, Natasha B.; Alonzo, Suzanne H.

2009-01-01

Existing theory predicts that male signalling can be an unreliable indicator of paternal care, but assumes that males with high levels of mating success can have high current reproductive success, without providing any parental care. As a result, this theory does not hold for the many species where offspring survival depends on male parental care. We modelled male allocation of resources between advertisement and care for species with male care where males vary in quality, and the effect of care and advertisement on male fitness is multiplicative rather than additive. Our model predicts that males will allocate proportionally more of their resources to whichever trait (advertisement or paternal care) is more fitness limiting. In contrast to previous theory, we find that male advertisement is always a reliable indicator of paternal care and male phenotypic quality (e.g. males with higher levels of advertisement never allocate less to care than males with lower levels of advertisement). Our model shows that the predicted pattern of male allocation and the reliability of male signalling depend very strongly on whether paternal care is assumed to be necessary for offspring survival and how male care affects offspring survival and male fitness. PMID:19520802

Will male advertisement be a reliable indicator of paternal care, if offspring survival depends on male care?

PubMed

Kelly, Natasha B; Alonzo, Suzanne H

2009-09-07

Existing theory predicts that male signalling can be an unreliable indicator of paternal care, but assumes that males with high levels of mating success can have high current reproductive success, without providing any parental care. As a result, this theory does not hold for the many species where offspring survival depends on male parental care. We modelled male allocation of resources between advertisement and care for species with male care where males vary in quality, and the effect of care and advertisement on male fitness is multiplicative rather than additive. Our model predicts that males will allocate proportionally more of their resources to whichever trait (advertisement or paternal care) is more fitness limiting. In contrast to previous theory, we find that male advertisement is always a reliable indicator of paternal care and male phenotypic quality (e.g. males with higher levels of advertisement never allocate less to care than males with lower levels of advertisement). Our model shows that the predicted pattern of male allocation and the reliability of male signalling depend very strongly on whether paternal care is assumed to be necessary for offspring survival and how male care affects offspring survival and male fitness.

10-year cumulative and bidirectional associations of domain-specific physical activity and sedentary behaviour with health-related quality of life in French adults: Results from the SU.VI.MAX studies.

PubMed

Omorou, Abdou Y; Vuillemin, Anne; Menai, Medhi; Latarche, Clotilde; Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle; Galan, Pilar; Hercberg, Serge; Oppert, Jean-Michel; Briançon, Serge

2016-07-01

The directionality of the associations of domain-specific physical activity (PA) and sedentary behaviour (SB) with health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in adults remain insufficiently known. This study investigated the longitudinal associations of 10-year cumulative levels of PA and SB with HRQoL and the reverse associations. A sample of 2093 (47.8% men) participants from a cohort of French adult (SU.VI.MAX) was included. Data were collected at 3 time points (1998, 2001 and 2007) using the Modifiable Activity Questionnaire (MAQ) for PA (leisure-time and occupational) and SB (screen-viewing, reading and total sitting time) and the DUKE Health Profile for HRQoL. The cumulative level (from 0 to 3) referred to the number of time points where a high PA level, high SB or good HRQoL was reported. Regression models examined the 10-year cumulative level of PA, SB as predictors of HRQoL and reverse associations. The 10-year cumulative level of high PA, both leisure-time and occupational, predicted a higher HRQoL while the 10-year cumulative level of high screen-viewing time and high total sitting time was associated with lower HRQoL. For the reverse association, cumulative level of good HRQoL predicted more leisure-time PA, less screen-viewing time and less total sitting time but was not related to occupational PA. Relationships between PA, SB and HRQoL are complex and should not be oversimplified in one or the other direction. Taking into account domain-specific PA and SB in health promotion programs appears of prime importance to design interventions aiming at improving HRQoL. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Audience preferences are predicted by temporal reliability of neural processing

PubMed Central

Dmochowski, Jacek P.; Bezdek, Matthew A.; Abelson, Brian P.; Johnson, John S.; Schumacher, Eric H.; Parra, Lucas C.

2014-01-01

Naturalistic stimuli evoke highly reliable brain activity across viewers. Here we record neural activity from a group of naive individuals while viewing popular, previously-broadcast television content for which the broad audience response is characterized by social media activity and audience ratings. We find that the level of inter-subject correlation in the evoked encephalographic responses predicts the expressions of interest and preference among thousands. Surprisingly, ratings of the larger audience are predicted with greater accuracy than those of the individuals from whom the neural data is obtained. An additional functional magnetic resonance imaging study employing a separate sample of subjects shows that the level of neural reliability evoked by these stimuli covaries with the amount of blood-oxygenation-level-dependent (BOLD) activation in higher-order visual and auditory regions. Our findings suggest that stimuli which we judge favourably may be those to which our brains respond in a stereotypical manner shared by our peers. PMID:25072833

The development of callous-unemotional traits and antisocial behavior in children: are there shared and/or unique predictors?

PubMed

Pardini, Dustin A; Lochman, John E; Powell, Nicole

2007-01-01

Callous and unemotional (CU) traits have been linked to severe antisocial behavior in youth, but studies examining the etiology of CU traits are lacking. Based on prior research, it was hypothesized that childhood anxiety and parenting practices would interact to predict changes in CU traits over time. Hypotheses were tested using a sample of 120 moderate to highly aggressive fifth graders followed over a 1-year period. Although CU traits displayed moderate temporal stability and predicted increases in antisocial behavior, evidence suggested that these features were not immutable. Children exposed to lower levels of physical punishment showed decreases in CU traits over time, whereas higher levels of child-reported parental warmth and involvement predicted decreases in both CU traits and antisocial behavior over time. Lower levels of anxiety were uniquely related to increased CU traits for children who described their primary caregiver as exhibiting low warmth and involvement.

Audience preferences are predicted by temporal reliability of neural processing.

PubMed

Dmochowski, Jacek P; Bezdek, Matthew A; Abelson, Brian P; Johnson, John S; Schumacher, Eric H; Parra, Lucas C

2014-07-29

Naturalistic stimuli evoke highly reliable brain activity across viewers. Here we record neural activity from a group of naive individuals while viewing popular, previously-broadcast television content for which the broad audience response is characterized by social media activity and audience ratings. We find that the level of inter-subject correlation in the evoked encephalographic responses predicts the expressions of interest and preference among thousands. Surprisingly, ratings of the larger audience are predicted with greater accuracy than those of the individuals from whom the neural data is obtained. An additional functional magnetic resonance imaging study employing a separate sample of subjects shows that the level of neural reliability evoked by these stimuli covaries with the amount of blood-oxygenation-level-dependent (BOLD) activation in higher-order visual and auditory regions. Our findings suggest that stimuli which we judge favourably may be those to which our brains respond in a stereotypical manner shared by our peers.

Comparison of Methods for Estimating Prevalence of Chronic Diseases and Health Behaviors for Small Geographic Areas: Boston Validation Study, 2013

PubMed Central

Holt, James B.; Zhang, Xingyou; Lu, Hua; Shah, Snehal N.; Dooley, Daniel P.; Matthews, Kevin A.; Croft, Janet B.

2017-01-01

Introduction Local health authorities need small-area estimates for prevalence of chronic diseases and health behaviors for multiple purposes. We generated city-level and census-tract–level prevalence estimates of 27 measures for the 500 largest US cities. Methods To validate the methodology, we constructed multilevel logistic regressions to predict 10 selected health indicators among adults aged 18 years or older by using 2013 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data; we applied their predicted probabilities to census population data to generate city-level, neighborhood-level, and zip-code–level estimates for the city of Boston, Massachusetts. Results By comparing the predicted estimates with their corresponding direct estimates from a locally administered survey (Boston BRFSS 2010 and 2013), we found that our model-based estimates for most of the selected health indicators at the city level were close to the direct estimates from the local survey. We also found strong correlation between the model-based estimates and direct survey estimates at neighborhood and zip code levels for most indicators. Conclusion Findings suggest that our model-based estimates are reliable and valid at the city level for certain health outcomes. Local health authorities can use the neighborhood-level estimates if high quality local health survey data are not otherwise available. PMID:29049020

SOX9 expression predicts relapse of stage II colon cancer patients.

PubMed

Marcker Espersen, Maiken Lise; Linnemann, Dorte; Christensen, Ib Jarle; Alamili, Mahdi; Troelsen, Jesper T; Høgdall, Estrid

2016-06-01

The aim of this study was to investigate if the protein expression of sex-determining region y-box 9 (SOX9) in primary tumors could predict relapse of stage II colon cancer patients. One hundred forty-four patients with stage II primary colon cancer were retrospectively enrolled in the study. SOX9 expression was evaluated by immunohistochemistry, and mismatch repair status was assessed by both immunohistochemistry and promoter hypermethylation assay. High SOX9 expression at the invasive front was significantly associated with lower risk of relapse when including the SOX9 expression as a continuous variable (from low to high expression) in univariate (hazard ratio [HR], 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.56-0.94; P = .01) and multivariate Cox proportional hazards analyses (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.58-0.96; P = .02), adjusting for mismatch repair deficiency and histopathologic risk factors. Conversely, low SOX9 expression at the invasive front was significantly associated with high risk of relapse, when including SOX9 expression as a dichotomous variable, in univariate (HR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.14-4.69; P = .02) and multivariate analyses (HR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.14-4.69; P = .02), adjusting for histopathologic risk factors and mismatch repair deficiency. In conclusion, high levels of SOX9 of primary stage II colon tumors predict low risk of relapse, whereas low levels of SOX9 predict high risk of relapse. SOX9 may have an important value as a biomarker when evaluating risk of relapse for personalized treatment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Authoritative School Climate and High School Dropout Rates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jia, Yuane; Konold, Timothy R.; Cornell, Dewey

2016-01-01

This study tested the association between school-wide measures of an authoritative school climate and high school dropout rates in a statewide sample of 315 high schools. Regression models at the school level of analysis used teacher and student measures of disciplinary structure, student support, and academic expectations to predict overall high…

Measuring the Impact of High School Counselors on College Enrollment. Research Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hurwitz, Michael; Howell, Jessica

2013-01-01

This brief examines high school counselor staffing counts relative to four-year college enrollment rates. Recent evidence from a national survey of counselors provides support for claims by counselors and school administrators that current counselor staffing levels are suboptimal. An additional high school counselor is predicted to induce a 10…

Childhood callous-unemotional traits moderate the relation between parenting distress and conduct problems over time.

PubMed

Fanti, Kostas A; Centifanti, Luna C Munoz

2014-01-01

The present short-term longitudinal study examines the bidirectional effects among paternal-reported and maternal-reported involvement, distress and conduct-problems (CP) in children ages 7–12 years with callous-unemotional (CU) traits as a potential moderator. Latent profile analysis revealed four groups: high, moderate, decreasing, and low on CU traits. Findings suggested that children high on CU traits were at higher risk to exhibit CP and were more likely to experience low parental-involvement and high parental-distress compared to children with low, decreasing, and moderate CU traits. Findings from the cross-lagged structural equation model suggested that high levels of CP predicted increases in parenting distress, and this was shown for youth with high levels of CU traits. In turn, parental-reported distress predicted increases in CP for children in the low and decreasing CU groups. A negative bidirectional association between maternal-involvement and CP was also identified. Findings extend cross-sectional research showing parents become distressed by CP behaviors, particularly when accompanied by high CU traits.

Associations of group level popularity with observed behavior and influence in a dyadic context.

PubMed

Lansu, Tessa A M; Cillessen, Antonius H N

2015-12-01

This study examined the association between popularity in the peer group and adolescents' behavior in a dyadic context. After collecting peer nominations for popularity, 218 early adolescents (M(age) = 11.0 years) in 109 randomly composed same-sex dyads participated in a discussion task where they planned a party for their classroom. From digital recordings of the sessions, each participant's influence, involvement, skillful leadership, coercive resource control, submissiveness, positivity, and negativity were observed. Analyses with the actor-partner interdependence model (APIM) demonstrated that for girls high group level popularity was associated with a socially sensitive interaction style and influence in the dyadic context. For both boys and girls, the interaction partner's group level popularity negatively predicted their use of coercive resource control strategies and negative behavior in the dyad. For girls, in addition, the interaction partner's group level popularity also positively predicted their submissiveness and negatively predicted their task influence. These results indicate that, in particular for girls, adolescents' group level popularity plays an important role in the behavior of both peers in a cooperative dyadic context. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of high incidence of dengue in the Philippines.

PubMed

Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Babin, Steven M; Ramac-Thomas, Liane C; Guven, Erhan; Elbert, Yevgeniy; Koshute, Phillip T; Velasco, John Mark S; Roque, Vito G; Tayag, Enrique A; Yoon, In-Kyu; Lewis, Sheri H

2014-04-01

Accurate prediction of dengue incidence levels weeks in advance of an outbreak may reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with this neglected disease. Therefore, models were developed to predict high and low dengue incidence in order to provide timely forewarnings in the Philippines. Model inputs were chosen based on studies indicating variables that may impact dengue incidence. The method first uses Fuzzy Association Rule Mining techniques to extract association rules from these historical epidemiological, environmental, and socio-economic data, as well as climate data indicating future weather patterns. Selection criteria were used to choose a subset of these rules for a classifier, thereby generating a Prediction Model. The models predicted high or low incidence of dengue in a Philippines province four weeks in advance. The threshold between high and low was determined relative to historical incidence data. Model accuracy is described by Positive Predictive Value (PPV), Negative Predictive Value (NPV), Sensitivity, and Specificity computed on test data not previously used to develop the model. Selecting a model using the F0.5 measure, which gives PPV more importance than Sensitivity, gave these results: PPV = 0.780, NPV = 0.938, Sensitivity = 0.547, Specificity = 0.978. Using the F3 measure, which gives Sensitivity more importance than PPV, the selected model had PPV = 0.778, NPV = 0.948, Sensitivity = 0.627, Specificity = 0.974. The decision as to which model has greater utility depends on how the predictions will be used in a particular situation. This method builds prediction models for future dengue incidence in the Philippines and is capable of being modified for use in different situations; for diseases other than dengue; and for regions beyond the Philippines. The Philippines dengue prediction models predicted high or low incidence of dengue four weeks in advance of an outbreak with high accuracy, as measured by PPV, NPV, Sensitivity, and Specificity.

Prediction of High Incidence of Dengue in the Philippines

PubMed Central

Buczak, Anna L.; Baugher, Benjamin; Babin, Steven M.; Ramac-Thomas, Liane C.; Guven, Erhan; Elbert, Yevgeniy; Koshute, Phillip T.; Velasco, John Mark S.; Roque, Vito G.; Tayag, Enrique A.; Yoon, In-Kyu; Lewis, Sheri H.

2014-01-01

Background Accurate prediction of dengue incidence levels weeks in advance of an outbreak may reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with this neglected disease. Therefore, models were developed to predict high and low dengue incidence in order to provide timely forewarnings in the Philippines. Methods Model inputs were chosen based on studies indicating variables that may impact dengue incidence. The method first uses Fuzzy Association Rule Mining techniques to extract association rules from these historical epidemiological, environmental, and socio-economic data, as well as climate data indicating future weather patterns. Selection criteria were used to choose a subset of these rules for a classifier, thereby generating a Prediction Model. The models predicted high or low incidence of dengue in a Philippines province four weeks in advance. The threshold between high and low was determined relative to historical incidence data. Principal Findings Model accuracy is described by Positive Predictive Value (PPV), Negative Predictive Value (NPV), Sensitivity, and Specificity computed on test data not previously used to develop the model. Selecting a model using the F0.5 measure, which gives PPV more importance than Sensitivity, gave these results: PPV = 0.780, NPV = 0.938, Sensitivity = 0.547, Specificity = 0.978. Using the F3 measure, which gives Sensitivity more importance than PPV, the selected model had PPV = 0.778, NPV = 0.948, Sensitivity = 0.627, Specificity = 0.974. The decision as to which model has greater utility depends on how the predictions will be used in a particular situation. Conclusions This method builds prediction models for future dengue incidence in the Philippines and is capable of being modified for use in different situations; for diseases other than dengue; and for regions beyond the Philippines. The Philippines dengue prediction models predicted high or low incidence of dengue four weeks in advance of an outbreak with high accuracy, as measured by PPV, NPV, Sensitivity, and Specificity. PMID:24722434

Predicting Dropout Using Student- and School-Level Factors: An Ecological Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Laura; Kiperman, Sarah; Esch, Rachel C.; Leroux, Audrey J.; Truscott, Stephen D.

2017-01-01

High school dropout has been associated with negative outcomes, including increased rates of unemployment, incarceration, and mortality. Dropout rates vary significantly depending on individual and environmental factors. The purpose of our study was to use an ecological perspective to concurrently explore student- and school-level predictors…

College Readiness Indicators. Bulletin. Issue 25

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cromwell, Ashley M.; McClarty, Katie Larsen; Larson, Sarah J.

2013-01-01

This paper outlines current student-level indicators at the high school and middle school levels that predict college success. In this bulletin, indicators are divided into three categories: assessment scores (e.g., SAT® exam scores), transcript attributes (e.g., course rigor), and additional indicators (e.g., attendance) that impact achievement.

The Role of Perceptual Load in Object Recognition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lavie, Nilli; Lin, Zhicheng; Zokaei, Nahid; Thoma, Volker

2009-01-01

Predictions from perceptual load theory (Lavie, 1995, 2005) regarding object recognition across the same or different viewpoints were tested. Results showed that high perceptual load reduces distracter recognition levels despite always presenting distracter objects from the same view. They also showed that the levels of distracter recognition were…

Family Instability and Child Maladjustment Trajectories During Elementary School

PubMed Central

Milan, Stephanie; Pinderhughes, Ellen E.

2009-01-01

This study examines the relation between family instability and child maladjustment over a 6-year period in 369 children from four communities. Measures were collected annually from kindergarten through fifth grade. In associative growth curve models, family instability trajectories predicted children's externalizing and internalizing behavior trajectories during this time period. High levels of family instability also incrementally predicted the likelihood of meeting criteria for a DSMIV diagnosis during elementary school, above and beyond prediction from earlier measures of maladjustment. However, the timing of family instability had a different effect on externalizing versus internalizing disorders. In general, stronger relations were found between family instability and externalizing behaviors relative to internalizing behaviors, although children with comorbid disorders experienced the highest levels of family instability. PMID:16557358

Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

PubMed

van der Put, Claudia E; Assink, Mark; Boekhout van Solinge, Noëlle F

2017-11-01

Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictions interact with missing sensory evidence in semantic processing areas.

PubMed

Scharinger, Mathias; Bendixen, Alexandra; Herrmann, Björn; Henry, Molly J; Mildner, Toralf; Obleser, Jonas

2016-02-01

Human brain function draws on predictive mechanisms that exploit higher-level context during lower-level perception. These mechanisms are particularly relevant for situations in which sensory information is compromised or incomplete, as for example in natural speech where speech segments may be omitted due to sluggish articulation. Here, we investigate which brain areas support the processing of incomplete words that were predictable from semantic context, compared with incomplete words that were unpredictable. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), participants heard sentences that orthogonally varied in predictability (semantically predictable vs. unpredictable) and completeness (complete vs. incomplete, i.e. missing their final consonant cluster). The effects of predictability and completeness interacted in heteromodal semantic processing areas, including left angular gyrus and left precuneus, where activity did not differ between complete and incomplete words when they were predictable. The same regions showed stronger activity for incomplete than for complete words when they were unpredictable. The interaction pattern suggests that for highly predictable words, the speech signal does not need to be complete for neural processing in semantic processing areas. Hum Brain Mapp 37:704-716, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

On the predictability of extreme events in records with linear and nonlinear long-range memory: Efficiency and noise robustness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogachev, Mikhail I.; Bunde, Armin

2011-06-01

We study the predictability of extreme events in records with linear and nonlinear long-range memory in the presence of additive white noise using two different approaches: (i) the precursory pattern recognition technique (PRT) that exploits solely the information about short-term precursors, and (ii) the return interval approach (RIA) that exploits long-range memory incorporated in the elapsed time after the last extreme event. We find that the PRT always performs better when only linear memory is present. In the presence of nonlinear memory, both methods demonstrate comparable efficiency in the absence of white noise. When additional white noise is present in the record (which is the case in most observational records), the efficiency of the PRT decreases monotonously with increasing noise level. In contrast, the RIA shows an abrupt transition between a phase of low level noise where the prediction is as good as in the absence of noise, and a phase of high level noise where the prediction becomes poor. In the phase of low and intermediate noise the RIA predicts considerably better than the PRT, which explains our recent findings in physiological and financial records.

Prediction of Neonatal Hyperbilirubinemia Using 1st Day Serum Bilirubin Levels.

PubMed

Spoorthi, S M; Dandinavar, Siddappa F; Ratageri, Vinod H; Wari, Prakash K

2018-02-15

The study was conducted on Full term neonates with birth weight > 2.5 kg born in KIMS, Hubballi with an objective to determine the first day Total Serum Bilirubin (TSB) value so as to predict subsequent development of significant hyperbilirubinemia in term neonates. All enrolled neonates were sampled for TSB and blood group on Day 1 at 20 ± 4 h and then followed up clinically by Kramer's rule and when the clinical jaundice by Kramer's rule was >10 mg/dl, TSB levels were repeated. A total of 180 newborns were enrolled for the study and 165 babies completed the study. Out of these, 17(10.3%) babies had significant hyperbilirubinemia by day 5 of life. Using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve, a cut off TSB value of 6.15 mg/dl was determined with sensitivity of 82.4%, specificity of 81.8%, positive predictive value of 32.8%, negative predictive value 97.6%. In term neonates, the first day total bilirubin level at 20 ± 4 h of life <6.15 predicts the low risk of subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia with high probability.

The role of anxiety in cortisol stress response and cortisol recovery in boys with oppositional defiant disorder/conduct disorder.

PubMed

Schoorl, Jantiene; Rijn, Sophie van; Wied, Minet de; van Goozen, Stephanie; Swaab, Hanna

2016-11-01

Children with antisocial and aggressive behaviors have been found to show abnormal neurobiological responses to stress, specifically impaired cortisol stress reactivity. The role of individual characteristics, such as comorbid anxiety, in the stress response is far less studied. Furthermore, this study extended previous studies in that not only baseline and reactivity to a psychosocial stressor were examined, but also recovery from a stressor. These three phases of cortisol could be impacted differentially in boys with oppositional defiant disorder/conduct disorder (ODD/CD) with (+ANX) and without anxiety (-ANX). The results revealed that cortisol patterns in response to psychosocial stress were different for boys with ODD/CD+ANX (n=32), ODD/CD-ANX (n=22) and non-clinical controls (NC) (n=34), with age range of 7.8-12.9 years. The ODD/CD-ANX group showed lower overall cortisol levels than the NC group. When considering the three phases of cortisol separately, the ODD/CD-ANX group had lower baseline cortisol levels relative to the other groups, whereas the ODD/CD+ANX showed an impaired cortisol recovery response. Within those with ODD/CD, callous-unemotional traits were predictive of high baseline cortisol levels. Also, anxiety predicted high baseline and recovery cortisol levels, whereas a high number of CD symptoms predicted reduced cortisol stress reactivity. These results clearly indicate that comorbid anxiety is an important factor in explaining differences in stress response profiles in boys with ODD/CD; although boys with CD/ODD are generally characterized by an impaired cortisol stress response, we found that those with comorbid anxiety showed impaired cortisol recovery, whereas those without anxiety showed reduced baseline cortisol levels. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mid-infrared fibre evanescent wave spectroscopy of serum allows fingerprinting of the hepatic metabolic status in mice.

PubMed

Le Corvec, Maëna; Allain, Coralie; Lardjane, Salim; Cavey, Thibault; Turlin, Bruno; Fautrel, Alain; Begriche, Karima; Monbet, Valérie; Fromenty, Bernard; Leroyer, Patricia; Guggenbuhl, Pascal; Ropert, Martine; Sire, Olivier; Loréal, Olivier

2016-10-24

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is associated with obesity, diabetes, and metabolic syndrome. The detection of systemic metabolic changes associated with alterations in the liver status during non-alcoholic fatty liver disease could improve patient follow-up. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the potential of mid-infrared fibre evanescent wave spectroscopy as a minimum-invasive method for evaluating the liver status during non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Seventy-five mice were subjected to a control, high-fat or high-fat-high carbohydrate diets. We analysed the serum biochemical parameters and mRNA levels of hepatic genes by quantitative RT-PCR. Steatosis was quantified by image analysis. The mid-infrared spectra were acquired from serum, and then analysed to develop a predictive model of the steatosis level. Animals subjected to enriched diets were obese. Hepatic steatosis was found in all animals. The relationship between the spectroscopy-predicted and observed levels of steatosis, expressed as percentages of the liver biopsy area, was not linear. A transition around 10% steatosis was observed, leading us to consider two distinct predictive models (<10% and >10%) based on two different sets of discriminative spectral variables. The model performance was evaluated using random cross-validation (10%). The hypothesis that additional metabolic changes occur beyond this transition was supported by the fact that it was associated with increased serum ALT levels, and Col1α1 chain mRNA levels. Our data suggest that mid-infrared spectroscopy combined with statistical analysis allows identifying serum mid-infrared signatures that reflect the liver status during non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

Predictive value of serum sST2 in preschool wheezers for development of asthma with high FeNO.

PubMed

Ketelaar, M E; van de Kant, K D; Dijk, F N; Klaassen, E M; Grotenboer, N S; Nawijn, M C; Dompeling, E; Koppelman, G H

2017-11-01

Wheezing is common in childhood. However, current prediction models of pediatric asthma have only modest accuracy. Novel biomarkers and definition of subphenotypes may improve asthma prediction. Interleukin-1-receptor-like-1 (IL1RL1 or ST2) is a well-replicated asthma gene and associates with eosinophilia. We investigated whether serum sST2 predicts asthma and asthma with elevated exhaled NO (FeNO), compared to the commonly used Asthma Prediction Index (API). Using logistic regression modeling, we found that serum sST2 levels in 2-3 years-old wheezers do not predict doctors' diagnosed asthma at age 6 years. Instead, sST2 predicts a subphenotype of asthma characterized by increased levels of FeNO, a marker for eosinophilic airway inflammation. Herein, sST2 improved the predictive value of the API (AUC=0.70, 95% CI 0.56-0.84), but had also significant predictive value on its own (AUC=0.65, 95% CI 0.52-0.79). Our study indicates that sST2 in preschool wheezers has predictive value for the development of eosinophilic airway inflammation in asthmatic children at school age. © 2017 EAACI and John Wiley and Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd.

Using risk-adjustment models to identify high-cost risks.

PubMed

Meenan, Richard T; Goodman, Michael J; Fishman, Paul A; Hornbrook, Mark C; O'Keeffe-Rosetti, Maureen C; Bachman, Donald J

2003-11-01

We examine the ability of various publicly available risk models to identify high-cost individuals and enrollee groups using multi-HMO administrative data. Five risk-adjustment models (the Global Risk-Adjustment Model [GRAM], Diagnostic Cost Groups [DCGs], Adjusted Clinical Groups [ACGs], RxRisk, and Prior-expense) were estimated on a multi-HMO administrative data set of 1.5 million individual-level observations for 1995-1996. Models produced distributions of individual-level annual expense forecasts for comparison to actual values. Prespecified "high-cost" thresholds were set within each distribution. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for "high-cost" prevalences of 1% and 0.5% was calculated, as was the proportion of "high-cost" dollars correctly identified. Results are based on a separate 106,000-observation validation dataset. For "high-cost" prevalence targets of 1% and 0.5%, ACGs, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense are very comparable in overall discrimination (AUCs, 0.83-0.86). Given a 0.5% prevalence target and a 0.5% prediction threshold, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense captured $963,000 (approximately 3%) more "high-cost" sample dollars than other models. DCGs captured the most "high-cost" dollars among enrollees with asthma, diabetes, and depression; predictive performance among demographic groups (Medicaid members, members over 64, and children under 13) varied across models. Risk models can efficiently identify enrollees who are likely to generate future high costs and who could benefit from case management. The dollar value of improved prediction performance of the most accurate risk models should be meaningful to decision-makers and encourage their broader use for identifying high costs.

Prediction of infarct severity from triiodothyronine levels in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction

PubMed Central

Kim, Dong Hun; Kim, Hyun-Wook; Choi, Seo-Won; Kim, Bo-Bae; Chung, Joong-Wha; Koh, Young-Youp; Chang, Kyong-Sig; Hong, Soon-Pyo

2014-01-01

Background/Aims The aim of the present study was to evaluate the relationship between thyroid hormone levels and infarct severity in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Methods We retrospectively reviewed thyroid hormone levels, infarct severity, and the extent of transmurality in 40 STEMI patients evaluated via contrast-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. Results The high triiodothyronine (T3) group (≥ 68.3 ng/dL) exhibited a significantly higher extent of transmural involvement (late transmural enhancement > 75% after administration of gadolinium contrast agent) than did the low T3 group (60% vs. 15%; p = 0.003). However, no significant difference was evident between the high- and low-thyroid-stimulating hormone/free thyroxine (FT4) groups. When the T3 cutoff level was set to 68.3 ng/dL using a receiver operating characteristic curve, the sensitivity was 80% and the specificity 68% in terms of differentiating between those with and without transmural involvement. Upon logistic regression analysis, high T3 level was an independent predictor of transmural involvement after adjustment for the presence of diabetes mellitus (DM) and the use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors (odds ratio, 40.62; 95% confidence interval, 3.29 to 502; p = 0.004). Conclusions The T3 level predicted transmural involvement that was independent of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor use and DM positivity. PMID:25045293

Salience and Attention in Surprisal-Based Accounts of Language Processing.

PubMed

Zarcone, Alessandra; van Schijndel, Marten; Vogels, Jorrig; Demberg, Vera

2016-01-01

The notion of salience has been singled out as the explanatory factor for a diverse range of linguistic phenomena. In particular, perceptual salience (e.g., visual salience of objects in the world, acoustic prominence of linguistic sounds) and semantic-pragmatic salience (e.g., prominence of recently mentioned or topical referents) have been shown to influence language comprehension and production. A different line of research has sought to account for behavioral correlates of cognitive load during comprehension as well as for certain patterns in language usage using information-theoretic notions, such as surprisal. Surprisal and salience both affect language processing at different levels, but the relationship between the two has not been adequately elucidated, and the question of whether salience can be reduced to surprisal / predictability is still open. Our review identifies two main challenges in addressing this question: terminological inconsistency and lack of integration between high and low levels of representations in salience-based accounts and surprisal-based accounts. We capitalize upon work in visual cognition in order to orient ourselves in surveying the different facets of the notion of salience in linguistics and their relation with models of surprisal. We find that work on salience highlights aspects of linguistic communication that models of surprisal tend to overlook, namely the role of attention and relevance to current goals, and we argue that the Predictive Coding framework provides a unified view which can account for the role played by attention and predictability at different levels of processing and which can clarify the interplay between low and high levels of processes and between predictability-driven expectation and attention-driven focus.

Learning and strain among newcomers: a three-wave study on the effects of job demands and job control.

PubMed

Taris, Toon W; Feij, Jan A

2004-11-01

The present 3-wave longitudinal study was an examination of job-related learning and strain as a function of job demand and job control. The participants were 311 newcomers to their jobs. On the basis of R. A. Karasek and T. Theorell's (1990) demand-control model, the authors predicted that high demand and high job control would lead to high levels of learning; low demand and low job control should lead to low levels of learning; high demand and low job control should lead to high levels of strain; and low demand and high job control should lead to low levels of strain. The relation between strain and learning was also examined. The authors tested the hypotheses using ANCOVA and structural equation modeling. The results revealed that high levels of strain have an adverse effect on learning; the reverse effect was not confirmed. It appears that Karasek and Theorell's model is very relevant when examining work socialization processes.

Eating in the absence of hunger during childhood predicts self-reported binge eating in adolescence.

PubMed

Balantekin, Katherine N; Birch, Leann L; Savage, Jennifer S

2017-01-01

The objectives of the current study were to examine whether eating in the absence of hunger (EAH) at age 7 predicted reports of self-reported binge eating at age 15 and to identify factors among girls with high-EAH that moderated risk of later binge eating. Subjects included 158 girls assessed at age 7 and age 15. Logistic regression was used to predict binge eating at age 15 from calories consumed during EAH at age 7. A series of logistic regressions were used to examine the odds of reporting binge eating given levels of risk factors (e.g., anxiety) among those with high-EAH in childhood. Girls' EAH intake predicted reports of binge eating at age 15; after adjusting for age 7 BMI, for each additional 100kcal consumed, girls were 1.7 times more likely to report binge eating in adolescence. Among those with high-EAH, BMI, anxiety, depression, dietary restraint, emotional disinhibition, and body dissatisfaction all predicted binge eating. EAH during childhood predicted reports of binge eating during adolescence; girls with elevated BMI, negative affect, and maladaptive eating- and weight-related cognitions were at increased risk. High-EAH in childhood may be useful for indicating those at risk for developing binge eating. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early antibiotic administration but not antibody therapy directed against IL-6 improves survival in septic mice predicted to die on basis of high IL-6 levels.

PubMed

Vyas, Dinesh; Javadi, Pardis; Dipasco, Peter J; Buchman, Timothy G; Hotchkiss, Richard S; Coopersmith, Craig M

2005-10-01

Elevated interleukin (IL)-6 levels correlate with increased mortality following sepsis. IL-6 levels >14,000 pg/ml drawn 6 h after cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) are associated with 100% mortality in ND4 mice, even if antibiotic therapy is initiated 12 h after septic insult. Our first aim was to see whether earlier institution of antibiotic therapy could improve overall survival in septic mice and rescue the subset of animals predicted to die on the basis of high IL-6 levels. Mice (n = 184) were subjected to CLP, had IL-6 levels drawn 6 h later, and then were randomized to receive imipenem, a broad spectrum antimicrobial agent, beginning 6 or 12 h postoperatively. Overall 1-wk survival improved from 25.5 to 35.9% with earlier administration of antibiotics (P < 0.05). In mice with IL-6 levels >14,000 pg/ml, 25% survived if imipenem was started at 6 h, whereas none survived if antibiotics were started later (P < 0.05). On the basis of these results, we examined whether targeted antibody therapy could improve survival in mice with elevated IL-6 levels. A different cohort of mice (n = 54) had blood drawn 6 h after CLP, and then they were randomized to receive either monoclonal anti-IL-6 IgG or irrelevant rat IgG. Anti-IL-6 antibody failed to improve either overall survival or outcome in mice with IL-6 levels >14,000 pg/ml. These results demonstrate that earlier systemic therapy can improve outcome in a subset of mice predicted to die in sepsis, but we are unable to demonstrate any benefit in similar animals using targeted therapy directed at IL-6.

Early antibiotic administration but not antibody therapy directed against IL-6 improves survival in septic mice predicted to die based upon high IL-6 levels

PubMed Central

Vyas, Dinesh; Javadi, Pardis; DiPasco, Peter J; Buchman, Timothy G; Hotchkiss, Richard S; Coopersmith, Craig M

2005-01-01

Elevated interleukin (IL)-6 levels correlate with increased mortality following sepsis. IL-6 levels >14,000 pg/ml drawn 6 hours following cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) are associated with 100% mortality in ND4 mice, even if antibiotic therapy is initiated 12 hours after the septic insult. The first aim of this study was to see if earlier institution of antibiotic therapy could improve overall survival in septic mice and rescue the subset of animals predicted to die based upon high IL-6 levels. Mice (n=184) were subjected to CLP, had IL-6 levels drawn six hours later and then were randomized to receive imipenem, a broad spectrum antimicrobial agent, beginning six or twelve hours post-operatively. Overall one-week survival improved from 25.5% to 35.9% with earlier administration of antibiotics (p<0.05). In mice with IL-6 levels >14,000 pg/ml, 25% survived if imipenem was started at 6 hours, while none survived if antibiotics were started later (p<0.05). Based upon these results, we examined whether targeted antibody therapy could improve survival in mice with elevated IL-6 levels. A different cohort of mice (n=54) had their blood drawn six hours after CLP and then were randomized to receive either monoclonal anti-IL-6 IgG or irrelevant rat IgG. Anti-IL-6 antibody failed to improve either overall survival or outcome in mice with IL-6 levels >14,000 pg/ml. These results demonstrate that earlier systemic therapy can improve outcome in a subset of mice predicted to die in sepsis, but we are unable to demonstrate any benefit in similar animals using targeted therapy directed at IL-6. PMID:15947070

S100B Serum Levels Predict Treatment Response in Patients with Melancholic Depression

PubMed Central

Bergink, Veerle; Grosse, Laura; Alferink, Judith; Drexhage, Hemmo A.; Rothermundt, Matthias; Arolt, Volker; Birkenhäger, Tom K.

2016-01-01

Background: There is an ongoing search for biomarkers in psychiatry, for example, as diagnostic tools or predictors of treatment response. The neurotrophic factor S100 calcium binding protein B (S100B) has been discussed as a possible predictor of antidepressant response in patients with major depression, but also as a possible biomarker of an acute depressive state. The aim of the present study was to study the association of serum S100B levels with antidepressant treatment response and depression severity in melancholically depressed inpatients. Methods: After a wash-out period of 1 week, 40 inpatients with melancholic depression were treated with either venlafaxine or imipramine. S100B levels and Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAM-D) scores were assessed at baseline, after 7 weeks of treatment, and after 6 months. Results: Patients with high S100B levels at baseline showed a markedly better treatment response defined as relative reduction in HAM-D scores than those with low baseline S100B levels after 7 weeks (P=.002) and 6 months (P=.003). In linear regression models, S100B was a significant predictor for treatment response at both time points. It is of interest to note that nonresponders were detected with a predictive value of 85% and a false negative rate of 7.5%. S100B levels were not associated with depression severity and did not change with clinical improvement. Conclusions: Low S100B levels predict nonresponse to venlafaxine and imipramine with high precision. Future studies have to show which treatments are effective in patients with low levels of S100B so that this biomarker will help to reduce patients’ burden of nonresponding to frequently used antidepressants. PMID:26364276

Quantifying confidence in density functional theory predictions of magnetic ground states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houchins, Gregory; Viswanathan, Venkatasubramanian

2017-10-01

Density functional theory (DFT) simulations, at the generalized gradient approximation (GGA) level, are being routinely used for material discovery based on high-throughput descriptor-based searches. The success of descriptor-based material design relies on eliminating bad candidates and keeping good candidates for further investigation. While DFT has been widely successfully for the former, oftentimes good candidates are lost due to the uncertainty associated with the DFT-predicted material properties. Uncertainty associated with DFT predictions has gained prominence and has led to the development of exchange correlation functionals that have built-in error estimation capability. In this work, we demonstrate the use of built-in error estimation capabilities within the BEEF-vdW exchange correlation functional for quantifying the uncertainty associated with the magnetic ground state of solids. We demonstrate this approach by calculating the uncertainty estimate for the energy difference between the different magnetic states of solids and compare them against a range of GGA exchange correlation functionals as is done in many first-principles calculations of materials. We show that this estimate reasonably bounds the range of values obtained with the different GGA functionals. The estimate is determined as a postprocessing step and thus provides a computationally robust and systematic approach to estimating uncertainty associated with predictions of magnetic ground states. We define a confidence value (c-value) that incorporates all calculated magnetic states in order to quantify the concurrence of the prediction at the GGA level and argue that predictions of magnetic ground states from GGA level DFT is incomplete without an accompanying c-value. We demonstrate the utility of this method using a case study of Li-ion and Na-ion cathode materials and the c-value metric correctly identifies that GGA-level DFT will have low predictability for NaFePO4F . Further, there needs to be a systematic test of a collection of plausible magnetic states, especially in identifying antiferromagnetic (AFM) ground states. We believe that our approach of estimating uncertainty can be readily incorporated into all high-throughput computational material discovery efforts and this will lead to a dramatic increase in the likelihood of finding good candidate materials.

Personality traits predict job stress, depression and anxiety among junior physicians

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background High levels of stress and deteriorating mental health among medical students are commonly reported. In Bergen, Norway, we explored the impact of personality traits measured early in their curriculum on stress reactions and levels of depression and anxiety symptoms as junior physicians following graduation. Methods Medical students (n = 201) from two classes participated in a study on personality traits and mental health early in the curriculum. A questionnaire measuring personality traits (Basic Character Inventory (BCI)) was used during their third undergraduate year. BCI assesses four personality traits: neuroticism, extroversion, conscientiousness and reality weakness. Questionnaires measuring mental health (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and Symptom Checklist 25 (SCL-25)), and stress (Perceived Medical School Stress (PMSS)) were used during their third and sixth undergraduate year. During postgraduate internship, Cooper’s Job Stress Questionnaire (CJSQ) was used to measure perceived job stress, while mental health and stress reactions were reassessed using HADS and SCL-25. Results Extroversion had the highest mean value (5.11) among the total group of participants, while reality weakness had the lowest (1.51). Neuroticism and reality weakness were related to high levels of perceived job stress (neuroticism r = .19, reality weakness r = .17) as well as higher levels of anxiety symptoms (neuroticism r = .23, reality weakness r = .33) and symptoms of depression (neuroticism r = .21, reality weakness r = .36) during internship. Neuroticism indirectly predicted stress reactions and levels of depression and anxiety symptoms. These relations were mediated by perceived job stress, while reality weakness predicted these mental health measures directly. Extroversion, on the other hand, protected against symptoms of depression (r = −.20). Furthermore, females reported higher levels of job stress than males (difference = 7.52). Conclusions Certain personality traits measured early in the course of medical school relates to mental health status as junior physicians during postgraduate internship training. This relation is mediated by high levels of perceived job stress. PMID:24207064

Personality traits predict job stress, depression and anxiety among junior physicians.

PubMed

Gramstad, Thomas Olsen; Gjestad, Rolf; Haver, Brit

2013-11-09

High levels of stress and deteriorating mental health among medical students are commonly reported. In Bergen, Norway, we explored the impact of personality traits measured early in their curriculum on stress reactions and levels of depression and anxiety symptoms as junior physicians following graduation. Medical students (n = 201) from two classes participated in a study on personality traits and mental health early in the curriculum. A questionnaire measuring personality traits (Basic Character Inventory (BCI)) was used during their third undergraduate year. BCI assesses four personality traits: neuroticism, extroversion, conscientiousness and reality weakness. Questionnaires measuring mental health (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and Symptom Checklist 25 (SCL-25)), and stress (Perceived Medical School Stress (PMSS)) were used during their third and sixth undergraduate year. During postgraduate internship, Cooper's Job Stress Questionnaire (CJSQ) was used to measure perceived job stress, while mental health and stress reactions were reassessed using HADS and SCL-25. Extroversion had the highest mean value (5.11) among the total group of participants, while reality weakness had the lowest (1.51). Neuroticism and reality weakness were related to high levels of perceived job stress (neuroticism r = .19, reality weakness r = .17) as well as higher levels of anxiety symptoms (neuroticism r = .23, reality weakness r = .33) and symptoms of depression (neuroticism r = .21, reality weakness r = .36) during internship. Neuroticism indirectly predicted stress reactions and levels of depression and anxiety symptoms. These relations were mediated by perceived job stress, while reality weakness predicted these mental health measures directly. Extroversion, on the other hand, protected against symptoms of depression (r = -.20). Furthermore, females reported higher levels of job stress than males (difference = 7.52). Certain personality traits measured early in the course of medical school relates to mental health status as junior physicians during postgraduate internship training. This relation is mediated by high levels of perceived job stress.

Predicting maximal strength of quadriceps from submaximal performance in individuals with knee joint osteoarthritis.

PubMed

McNair, Peter J; Colvin, Matt; Reid, Duncan

2011-02-01

To compare the accuracy of 12 maximal strength (1-repetition maximum [1-RM]) equations for predicting quadriceps strength in people with osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee joint. Eighteen subjects with OA of the knee joint attended a rehabilitation gymnasium on 3 occasions: 1) a familiarization session, 2) a session where the 1-RM of the quadriceps was established using a weights machine for an open-chain knee extension exercise and a leg press exercise, and 3) a session where the subjects performed with a load at which they could lift for approximately 10 repetitions only. The data were used in 12 prediction equations to calculate 1-RM strength and compared to the actual 1-RM data. Data were examined using Bland and Altman graphs and statistics, intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), and typical error values between the actual 1-RM and the respective 1-RM prediction equation data. Difference scores (predicted 1-RM--actual 1-RM) across the injured and control legs were also compared. For the knee extension exercise, the Brown, Brzycki, Epley, Lander, Mayhew et al, Poliquin, and Wathen prediction equations demonstrated the greatest levels of predictive accuracy. All of the ICCs were high (range 0.96–0.99), and typical errors were between 3% and 4%. For the knee press exercise, the Adams, Berger, Kemmler et al, and O'Conner et al equations demonstrated the greatest levels of predictive accuracy. All of the ICCs were high (range 0.95-0.98), and the typical errors ranged from 5.9-6.3%. This study provided evidence supporting the use of prediction equations to assess maximal strength in individuals with a knee joint with OA.

Out and healthy: Being more "out" about a concealable stigmatized identity may boost the health benefits of social support.

PubMed

Weisz, Bradley M; Quinn, Diane M; Williams, Michelle K

2016-12-01

This research examined whether the relationship between perceived social support and health would be moderated by level of outness for people living with different concealable stigmatized identities (mental illness, substance abuse, domestic violence, rape, or childhood abuse). A total of 394 people living with a concealable stigmatized identity completed a survey. Consistent with hypotheses, at high levels of outness, social support predicted better health; at low levels of outness, social support was less predictive of health. People concealing a stigmatized identity may only be able to reap the health benefits of social support if they are "out" about the stigmatized identity. © The Author(s) 2015.

A test of an interactive model of binge eating among undergraduate men.

PubMed

Minnich, Allison M; Gordon, Kathryn H; Holm-Denoma, Jill M; Troop-Gordon, Wendy

2014-12-01

Past research has shown that a combination of high perfectionism, high body dissatisfaction, and low self-esteem is predictive of binge eating in college women (Bardone-Cone et al., 2006). In the current study, we examined whether this triple interaction model is applicable to men. Male undergraduate college students from a large Midwestern university (n=302) completed self-report measures online at two different time points, a minimum of eight weeks apart. Analyses revealed a significant interaction between the three risk factors, such that high perfectionism, high body dissatisfaction, and low self-esteem at Time 1 were associated with higher levels of Time 2 binge eating symptoms. The triple interaction model did not predict Time 2 anxiety or depressive symptoms, which suggests model specificity. These findings offer a greater understanding of the interactive nature of risk factors in predicting binge eating symptoms among men. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ExoMol molecular line lists XIX: high-accuracy computed hot line lists for H218O and H217O

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polyansky, Oleg L.; Kyuberis, Aleksandra A.; Lodi, Lorenzo; Tennyson, Jonathan; Yurchenko, Sergei N.; Ovsyannikov, Roman I.; Zobov, Nikolai F.

2017-04-01

Hot line lists for two isotopologues of water, H218O and H217O, are presented. The calculations employ newly constructed potential energy surfaces (PES), which take advantage of a novel method for using the large set of experimental energy levels for H216O to give high-quality predictions for H218O and H217O. This procedure greatly extends the energy range for which a PES can be accurately determined, allowing an accurate prediction of higher lying energy levels than are currently known from direct laboratory measurements. This PES is combined with a high-accuracy, ab initio dipole moment surface of water in the computation of all energy levels, transition frequencies and associated Einstein A coefficients for states with rotational excitation up to J = 50 and energies up to 30 000 cm-1. The resulting HotWat78 line lists complement the well-used BT2 H216O line list. Full line lists are made available online as Supporting Information and at www.exomol.com.

Middle cerebral artery peak systolic velocity to predict fetal hemoglobin levels in twin anemia-polycythemia sequence.

PubMed

Slaghekke, F; Pasman, S; Veujoz, M; Middeldorp, J M; Lewi, L; Devlieger, R; Favre, R; Lopriore, E; Oepkes, D

2015-10-01

To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of middle cerebral artery peak systolic velocity (MCA-PSV) Doppler measurements in prediction of hemoglobin levels in twin anemia-polycythemia sequence (TAPS). This study involved a consecutive cohort comprising monochorionic twin pregnancies complicated by TAPS managed at three European fetal medicine centers between 2005 and 2013. The accuracy of MCA-PSV, measured immediately prior to fetal hemoglobin (Hb) measurement by fetal or cord blood sampling, for prediction of anemia and polycythemia was assessed using 2 × 2 tables. A total of 116 measurements (74 recorded in donors and 42 in recipients) from 43 twin pregnancies complicated by TAPS were available for analysis. MCA-PSV multiples of the median (MoM) values correlated well with Hb levels (r = - 0.86; P < 0.001). The sensitivity of MCA-PSV ≥ 1.5 MoM to predict severe anemia (Hb deficit > 5 SD below the mean) in TAPS donors was 94% (95% CI, 85-98%); specificity was 74% (95% CI, 62-83%); positive and negative predictive values were 76% (95% CI, 65-85%) and 94% (95% CI, 83-98%), respectively. The sensitivity of MCA-PSV ≤ 1.0 MoM to predict polycythemia (Hb level > 5 SD above the mean) in TAPS recipients was 97% (95% CI, 87-99%); specificity was 96% (95% CI, 89-99%); positive and negative predictive values were 93% (95% CI, 81-97%) and 99% (95% CI, 93-100%), respectively. MCA-PSV measurement has high diagnostic accuracy for predicting abnormal Hb levels in fetuses with TAPS. Copyright © 2015 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The nature and use of prediction skills in a biological computer simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavoie, Derrick R.; Good, Ron

The primary goal of this study was to examine the science process skill of prediction using qualitative research methodology. The think-aloud interview, modeled after Ericsson and Simon (1984), let to the identification of 63 program exploration and prediction behaviors.The performance of seven formal and seven concrete operational high-school biology students were videotaped during a three-phase learning sequence on water pollution. Subjects explored the effects of five independent variables on two dependent variables over time using a computer-simulation program. Predictions were made concerning the effect of the independent variables upon dependent variables through time. Subjects were identified according to initial knowledge of the subject matter and success at solving three selected prediction problems.Successful predictors generally had high initial knowledge of the subject matter and were formal operational. Unsuccessful predictors generally had low initial knowledge and were concrete operational. High initial knowledge seemed to be more important to predictive success than stage of Piagetian cognitive development.Successful prediction behaviors involved systematic manipulation of the independent variables, note taking, identification and use of appropriate independent-dependent variable relationships, high interest and motivation, and in general, higher-level thinking skills. Behaviors characteristic of unsuccessful predictors were nonsystematic manipulation of independent variables, lack of motivation and persistence, misconceptions, and the identification and use of inappropriate independent-dependent variable relationships.

Theory of Mind: A Neural Prediction Problem

PubMed Central

Koster-Hale, Jorie; Saxe, Rebecca

2014-01-01

Predictive coding posits that neural systems make forward-looking predictions about incoming information. Neural signals contain information not about the currently perceived stimulus, but about the difference between the observed and the predicted stimulus. We propose to extend the predictive coding framework from high-level sensory processing to the more abstract domain of theory of mind; that is, to inferences about others’ goals, thoughts, and personalities. We review evidence that, across brain regions, neural responses to depictions of human behavior, from biological motion to trait descriptions, exhibit a key signature of predictive coding: reduced activity to predictable stimuli. We discuss how future experiments could distinguish predictive coding from alternative explanations of this response profile. This framework may provide an important new window on the neural computations underlying theory of mind. PMID:24012000

Understanding spatial variability in extreme estuarine water levels to inform better coastal management practise.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyddon, Charlotte; Plater, Andy, ,, Prof.; Brown, Jenny, ,, Dr.; Leonardi, Nicoletta, ,, Dr.

2017-04-01

Coastal zones worldwide are subject to short term, local variations in sea-level, particularly communities and industries developed on estuaries. Astronomical high tides, meteorological storm surges and increased river flow present a combined flood hazard. This can elevate water level at the coast above predicted levels, generating extreme water levels. These contributions can also interact to alter the phase and amplitude of tides and surges, and thus cause significant mismatches between the predicted and observed water level. The combined effect of tide, surge, river flow and their interactions are the key to understanding and assessing flood risk in estuarine environments for design purposes. Delft3D-FLOW, a hydrodynamic model which solves the unsteady shallow-water equation, is used to access spatial variability in extreme water levels for a range of historical events of different severity within the Severn Estuary, southwest England. Long-term tide gauge records from Ilfracombe and Mumbles and river level data from Sandhurst are analysed to generate a series of extreme water level events, representing the 90th, 95th and 99th percentile conditions, to force the model boundaries. To separate out the time-varying contributions of tidal, fluvial, meteorological processes and their interactions the model is run with different physical forcing. A low pass filter is applied to "de-tide" the residual water elevation, to separate out the time-varying meteorological residual and the tide-surge interactions within the surge. The filtered surge is recombined with the predicted tide so the peak occurs at different times relative to high water. The resulting time series are used to force the model boundary to identify how the interactive processes influence the timing of extreme water level across the estuarine domain. This methodology is first validated using the most extreme event on record to ensure that modelled extreme water levels can be predicted with confidence. Changes in maximum water level are observed in areas where nuclear assets are located (Hinkley, Oldbury & Berkeley) and further upstream, e.g., close to the tidal limit of the Severn Estuary at Epney. Change in crest shape (area and duration above the MSHW) are analysed to understand changes to flood hazard around the peak of the tide. The work concludes that changes in maximum water level can be attributed to the change in time of the peak of the surge relative to high water, the surge shape (classified by skew and kurtosis) and severity of the event. The results can be used to understand the spatial variability in extreme water levels relative to a tide gauge location, which can then be applied to other management needs in hypertidal estuaries worldwide.

The Utility of a Paired-Choice Preference Assessment in Predicting Reinforcer Effectiveness for an Infant

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rush, Karena S.; Kurtz, Patricia F.; Lieblein, Tara L.; Chin, Michelle D.

2005-01-01

This study examined the utility of a paired-choice preference assessment in predicting reinforcer efficacy for a 13-month old with a history of prenatal drug exposure. First, two paired-choice assessments were conducted one week apart, using the same items. A high level of correspondence between the two assessments was observed. Next, a reinforcer…

Using Subjective and Objective Measures to Predict Level of Reading Fluency at the End of First Grade

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morris, Darrell; Pennell, Ashley M.; Perney, Jan; Trathen, Woodrow

2018-01-01

This study compared reading rate to reading fluency (as measured by a rating scale). After listening to first graders read short passages, we assigned an overall fluency rating (low, average, or high) to each reading. We then used predictive discriminant analyses to determine which of five measures--accuracy, rate (objective); accuracy, phrasing,…

The impact of minority stressors on the mental and physical health of lesbian, gay, and bisexual youths and young adults.

PubMed

Shilo, Guy; Mor, Zohar

2014-08-01

Research relating to minority stressors generally explores mental health outcomes, with limited focus on the physical dimension. In addition, minority stress research is conducted mainly in Christian-oriented societies. To address these pitfalls we used Web sampling targeting Israeli participants ages 12 to 30 (N = 952; 28 percent heterosexuals, 78 percent lesbian, gay, and bisexual [LGB] adolescents and young adults) to assess their mental health, physical and sexual risk behaviors, minority stressors, and coping resources. Results indicate that young LGBs had lower levels of mental and physical health than heterosexuals. Among LGB participants, high levels of minority stressors and low levels of coping resources predicted lower levels of mental health, and lower levels of mental health predicted lower levels of physical health. These results emphasize that minority stressors should be recognized as risk factors for poorer mental health, as well as for physical and sexual risk behaviors.

When does risk perception predict protection motivation for health threats? A person-by-situation analysis.

PubMed

Ferrer, Rebecca A; Klein, William M P; Avishai, Aya; Jones, Katelyn; Villegas, Megan; Sheeran, Paschal

2018-01-01

Although risk perception is a key concept in many health behavior theories, little research has explicitly tested when risk perception predicts motivation to take protective action against a health threat (protection motivation). The present study tackled this question by (a) adopting a multidimensional model of risk perception that comprises deliberative, affective, and experiential components (the TRIRISK model), and (b) taking a person-by-situation approach. We leveraged a highly intensive within-subjects paradigm to test features of the health threat (i.e., perceived severity) and individual differences (e.g., emotion reappraisal) as moderators of the relationship between the three types of risk perception and protection motivation in a within-subjects design. Multi-level modeling of 2968 observations (32 health threats across 94 participants) showed interactions among the TRIRISK components and moderation both by person-level and situational factors. For instance, affective risk perception better predicted protection motivation when deliberative risk perception was high, when the threat was less severe, and among participants who engage less in emotional reappraisal. These findings support the TRIRISK model and offer new insights into when risk perceptions predict protection motivation.

When does risk perception predict protection motivation for health threats? A person-by-situation analysis

PubMed Central

Klein, William M. P.; Avishai, Aya; Jones, Katelyn; Villegas, Megan; Sheeran, Paschal

2018-01-01

Although risk perception is a key concept in many health behavior theories, little research has explicitly tested when risk perception predicts motivation to take protective action against a health threat (protection motivation). The present study tackled this question by (a) adopting a multidimensional model of risk perception that comprises deliberative, affective, and experiential components (the TRIRISK model), and (b) taking a person-by-situation approach. We leveraged a highly intensive within-subjects paradigm to test features of the health threat (i.e., perceived severity) and individual differences (e.g., emotion reappraisal) as moderators of the relationship between the three types of risk perception and protection motivation in a within-subjects design. Multi-level modeling of 2968 observations (32 health threats across 94 participants) showed interactions among the TRIRISK components and moderation both by person-level and situational factors. For instance, affective risk perception better predicted protection motivation when deliberative risk perception was high, when the threat was less severe, and among participants who engage less in emotional reappraisal. These findings support the TRIRISK model and offer new insights into when risk perceptions predict protection motivation. PMID:29494705

Relations among student attention behaviors, teacher practices, and beginning word reading skill.

PubMed

Sáez, Leilani; Folsom, Jessica Sidler; Al Otaiba, Stephanie; Schatschneider, Christopher

2012-01-01

The role of student attention for predicting kindergarten word reading was investigated among 432 students. Using Strengths and Weaknesses of ADHD Symptoms and Normal Behavior Rating Scale behavior rating scores, the authors conducted an exploratory factor analysis, which yielded three distinct factors that reflected selective attention. In this study, the authors focused on the role of one of these factors, which they labeled attention-memory, for predicting reading performance. Teacher ratings of attention-memory predicted word reading above and beyond the contribution of phonological awareness and vocabulary knowledge. In addition, the relations between four teacher practices and attention ratings for predicting reading performance were examined. Using hierarchical linear modeling, the authors found significant interactions between student attention and teacher practices observed during literacy instruction. In general, as ratings of attention improved, better kindergarten word reading performance was associated with high levels of classroom behavior management. However, better word reading performance was not associated with high levels of teacher task orienting. A significant three-way interaction was also found among attention, individualized instruction, and teacher task redirections. The role of regulating kindergarten student attention to support beginning word reading skill development is discussed.

Predicting early adolescent gang involvement from middle school adaptation.

PubMed

Dishion, Thomas J; Nelson, Sarah E; Yasui, Miwa

2005-03-01

This study examined the role of adaptation in the first year of middle school (Grade 6, age 11) to affiliation with gangs by the last year of middle school (Grade 8, age 13). The sample consisted of 714 European American (EA) and African American (AA) boys and girls. Specifically, academic grades, reports of antisocial behavior, and peer relations in 6th grade were used to predict multiple measures of gang involvement by 8th grade. The multiple measures of gang involvement included self-, peer, teacher, and counselor reports. Unexpectedly, self-report measures of gang involvement did not correlate highly with peer and school staff reports. The results, however, were similar for other and self-report measures of gang involvement. Mean level analyses revealed statistically reliable differences in 8th-grade gang involvement as a function of the youth gender and ethnicity. Structural equation prediction models revealed that peer nominations of rejection, acceptance, academic failure, and antisocial behavior were predictive of gang involvement for most youth. These findings suggest that the youth level of problem behavior and the school ecology (e.g., peer rejection, school failure) require attention in the design of interventions to prevent the formation of gangs among high-risk young adolescents.

Sex Differences in the Contribution of Respiratory Sinus Arrhythmia and Trauma to Children's Psychopathology.

PubMed

Gray, Sarah A O; Theall, Katherine; Lipschutz, Rebecca; Drury, Stacy

2017-03-01

Respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), a marker of parasympathetic activity, has been shown to moderate the relation between adversity and child behavioral outcomes; however, this work has been conducted in primarily Caucasian samples and limited in focus to family-level adversity. The current analysis extends the previous literature to examine the co-contribution of exposure to potentially traumatic events (PTEs), baseline RSA, and RSA withdrawal to internalizing and externalizing behavior in a sample of primarily African American youth ( n = 92) recruited using neighborhood mapping techniques from communities high in epidemiological indicators of adversity. Exposure to PTEs was associated with lower baseline RSA. Complex interactions were observed between sex of the child, baseline RSA and RSA withdrawal, and PTE exposure predicting to internalizing behaviors. Among girls with high (4+) levels of PTEs, high baseline RSA and RSA withdrawal predicted higher internalizing; for RSA withdrawal only, the inverse was observed for girls with low PTE exposure, for whom high RSA withdrawal predicted lower internalizing. No associations were observed from RSA to externalizing, or among boys to internalizing. Findings are consistent with distinct patterns among primarily African American samples and suggest the need for sex-specific conceptualizations of the link between environmental adversity, physiological reactivity, and internalizing behaviors.

Sex Differences in the Contribution of Respiratory Sinus Arrhythmia and Trauma to Children’s Psychopathology

PubMed Central

Gray, Sarah A. O.; Theall, Katherine; Lipschutz, Rebecca; Drury, Stacy

2016-01-01

Respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), a marker of parasympathetic activity, has been shown to moderate the relation between adversity and child behavioral outcomes; however, this work has been conducted in primarily Caucasian samples and limited in focus to family-level adversity. The current analysis extends the previous literature to examine the co-contribution of exposure to potentially traumatic events (PTEs), baseline RSA, and RSA withdrawal to internalizing and externalizing behavior in a sample of primarily African American youth (n = 92) recruited using neighborhood mapping techniques from communities high in epidemiological indicators of adversity. Exposure to PTEs was associated with lower baseline RSA. Complex interactions were observed between sex of the child, baseline RSA and RSA withdrawal, and PTE exposure predicting to internalizing behaviors. Among girls with high (4+) levels of PTEs, high baseline RSA and RSA withdrawal predicted higher internalizing; for RSA withdrawal only, the inverse was observed for girls with low PTE exposure, for whom high RSA withdrawal predicted lower internalizing. No associations were observed from RSA to externalizing, or among boys to internalizing. Findings are consistent with distinct patterns among primarily African American samples and suggest the need for sex-specific conceptualizations of the link between environmental adversity, physiological reactivity, and internalizing behaviors. PMID:28479668

[A machine learning model using gut microbiome data for predicting changes of trimethylamine-N-oxide in healthy volunteers after choline consumption].

PubMed

Lu, Jun-Qi; Wang, Shan; Yin, Jia; Wu, Shan; He, Yan; Zheng, Hui-Min; Sheng, Hua-Fang; Zhou, Hong-Wei

2017-03-20

To establish a machine learning model based on gut microbiota for predicting the level of trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) metabolism in vivo after choline intake to provide guidance of individualized precision diet and evidence for screening population at high risks of cardiovascular disease. We quantified plasma levels of TMAO in 18 healthy volunteers before and 8 h after a choline challenge (ingestion of two boiled eggs). The volunteers were divided into two groups with increased or decreased TMAO level following choline challenge. Fresh fecal samples were collected before taking fasting blood samples for amplifying 16S rRNA V4 tags, and the PCR products were sequenced using the platform of Illumina HiSeq 2000. The differences in gut microbiata between subjects with increased and decreased plasma TMAO were analyzed using QIIME. Based on the gut microbiota data and TMAO levels in the two groups, the prediction model was established using the machine learning random forest algorithm, and the validity of the model was tested using a verified dataset. An obvious difference was found in beta diversity of the gut microbota between the subjects with increased and decreased plasma TMAO level following choline challenge. The area under the curve (AUC) of the model was 86.39% (95% CI: 72.7%-100%). Using the verified dataset, the model showed a much higher probability for correctly predicting TMAO variation following choline challenge. The model is feasible and reliable for predicting the level of TMAO metabolism in vivo based on gut microbiota.

Measurements and Predictions of the Noise from Three-Stream Jets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henderson, Brenda S.; Leib, Stewart J.; Wernet, Mark P.

2015-01-01

An experimental and numerical investigation of the noise produced by high-subsonic and supersonic three-stream jets was conducted. The exhaust system consisted of externally-mixed-convergent nozzles and an external plug. Bypass- and tertiary-to-core area ratios between 1.0 and 2.5, and 0.4 and 1.0, respectively, were studied. Axisymmetric and offset tertiary nozzles were investigated for heated and unheated conditions. For axisymmetric configurations, the addition of the third stream was found to reduce peak- and high-frequency acoustic levels in the peak-jet-noise direction, with greater reductions at the lower bypass-to-core area ratios. For the offset configurations, an offset duct was found to decrease acoustic levels on the thick side of the tertiary nozzle relative to those produced by the simulated two-stream jet with up to 8 dB mid-frequency noise reduction at large angles to the jet inlet axis. Noise reduction in the peak-jet-noise direction was greater for supersonic core speeds than for subsonic core speeds. The addition of a tertiary nozzle insert used to divert the third-stream jet to one side of the nozzle system provided no noise reduction. Noise predictions are presented for selected cases using a method based on an acoustic analogy with mean flow interaction effects accounted for using a Green's function, computed in terms of its coupled azimuthal modes for the offset cases, and a source model previously used for round and rectangular jets. Comparisons of the prediction results with data show that the noise model predicts the observed increase in low-frequency noise with the introduction of a third, axisymmetric stream, but not the high-frequency reduction. For an offset third stream, the model predicts the observed trend of decreased sound levels on the thick side of the jet compared with the thin side, but the predicted azimuthal variations are much less than those seen in the data. Also, the shift of the spectral peak to lower frequencies with increasing polar angle is over-predicted. For an offset third stream with a heated core, it is shown that including the enthalpy-flux source terms in the acoustic analogy model improves predictions compared with those obtained using only the momentum flux.

Measurements and Predictions of the Noise from Three-Stream Jets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henderson, Brenda S.; Leib, Stewart J.; Wernet, Mark P.

2015-01-01

An experimental and numerical investigation of the noise produced by high-subsonic and supersonic three-stream jets was conducted. The exhaust system consisted of externally-mixed-convergent nozzles and an external plug. Bypass- and tertiary- to-core area ratios between 1.0 and 2.5, and 0.4 and 1.0, respectively, were studied. Axisymmetric and offset tertiary nozzles were investigated for heated and unheated conditions. For axisymmetric configurations, the addition of the third stream was found to reduce peak- and high-frequency acoustic levels in the peak-jet-noise direction, with greater reductions at the lower bypass-to-core area ratios. For the offset configurations, an offset duct was found to decrease acoustic levels on the thick side of the tertiary nozzle relative to those produced by the simulated two-stream jet with up to 8 dB mid-frequency noise reduction at large angles to the jet inlet axis. Noise reduction in the peak-jet-noise direction was greater for supersonic core speeds than for subsonic core speeds. The addition of a tertiary nozzle insert used to divert the third-stream jet to one side of the nozzle system provided no noise reduction. Noise predictions are presented for selected cases using a method based on an acoustic analogy with mean flow interaction effects accounted for using a Green's function, computed in terms of its coupled azimuthal modes for the offset cases, and a source model previously used for round and rectangular jets. Comparisons of the prediction results with data show that the noise model predicts the observed increase in low-frequency noise with the introduction of a third, axisymmetric stream, but not the high-frequency reduction. For an offset third stream, the model predicts the observed trend of decreased sound levels on the thick side of the jet compared with the thin side, but the predicted azimuthal variations are much less than those seen in the data. Also, the shift of the spectral peak to lower frequencies with increasing polar angle is over-predicted. For an offset third stream with a heated core, it is shown that including the enthalpy-flux source terms in the acoustic analogy model improves predictions compared with those obtained using only the momentum- flux.

K-nearest neighbors based methods for identification of different gear crack levels under different motor speeds and loads: Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong

2016-03-01

Gears are the most commonly used components in mechanical transmission systems. Their failures may cause transmission system breakdown and result in economic loss. Identification of different gear crack levels is important to prevent any unexpected gear failure because gear cracks lead to gear tooth breakage. Signal processing based methods mainly require expertize to explain gear fault signatures which is usually not easy to be achieved by ordinary users. In order to automatically identify different gear crack levels, intelligent gear crack identification methods should be developed. The previous case studies experimentally proved that K-nearest neighbors based methods exhibit high prediction accuracies for identification of 3 different gear crack levels under different motor speeds and loads. In this short communication, to further enhance prediction accuracies of existing K-nearest neighbors based methods and extend identification of 3 different gear crack levels to identification of 5 different gear crack levels, redundant statistical features are constructed by using Daubechies 44 (db44) binary wavelet packet transform at different wavelet decomposition levels, prior to the use of a K-nearest neighbors method. The dimensionality of redundant statistical features is 620, which provides richer gear fault signatures. Since many of these statistical features are redundant and highly correlated with each other, dimensionality reduction of redundant statistical features is conducted to obtain new significant statistical features. At last, the K-nearest neighbors method is used to identify 5 different gear crack levels under different motor speeds and loads. A case study including 3 experiments is investigated to demonstrate that the developed method provides higher prediction accuracies than the existing K-nearest neighbors based methods for recognizing different gear crack levels under different motor speeds and loads. Based on the new significant statistical features, some other popular statistical models including linear discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis, classification and regression tree and naive Bayes classifier, are compared with the developed method. The results show that the developed method has the highest prediction accuracies among these statistical models. Additionally, selection of the number of new significant features and parameter selection of K-nearest neighbors are thoroughly investigated.

PRODUCTION AND ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION OF DIETARY PROTEIN AND CARBOHYDRATE IN THE CULTURE OF JUVENILE SEA URCHIN Lytechinus variegatus

PubMed Central

Heflin, Laura E.; Makowsky, Robert; Taylor, J. Christopher; Williams, Michael B.; Lawrence, Addison L.; Watts, Stephen A.

2016-01-01

Juvenile Lytechinus variegatus (ca. 3.95± 0.54 g) were fed one of 10 formulated diets with different protein (ranging from 11- 43%) and carbohydrate (12 or 18%; brackets determined from previous studies) levels. Urchins (n= 16 per treatment) were fed a daily sub-satiation ration equivalent to 2.0% of average body weight for 10 weeks. Our objective was (1) to create predictive models of growth, production and efficiency outcomes and (2) to generate economic analysis models in relation to these dietary outcomes for juvenile L. variegatus held in culture. At dietary protein levels below ca. 30%, models for most growth and production outcomes predicted increased rates of growth and production among urchins fed diets containing 18% dietary carbohydrate levels as compared to urchins fed diets containing 12% dietary carbohydrate. For most outcomes, growth and production was predicted to increase with increasing level of dietary protein up to ca. 30%, after which, no further increase in growth and production were predicted. Likewise, dry matter production efficiency was predicted to increase with increasing protein level up to ca. 30%, with urchins fed diets with 18% carbohydrate exhibiting greater efficiency than those fed diets with 12% carbohydrate. The energetic cost of dry matter production was optimal at protein levels less than those required for maximal weight gain and gonad production, suggesting an increased energetic cost (decreased energy efficiency) is required to increase gonad production relative to somatic growth. Economic analysis models predict when cost of feed ingredients are low, the lowest cost per gram of wet weight gain will occur at 18% dietary carbohydrate and ca. 25- 30% dietary protein. In contrast, lowest cost per gram of wet weight gain will occur at 12% dietary carbohydrate and ca. 35- 40% dietary protein when feed ingredient costs are high or average. For both 18 and 12% levels of dietary carbohydrate, cost per gram of wet weight gain is predicted to be maximized at low dietary protein levels, regardless of feed ingredient costs. These models will compare dietary requirements and growth outcomes in relation to economic costs and provide insight for future commercialization of sea urchin aquaculture. PMID:28082753

PRODUCTION AND ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION OF DIETARY PROTEIN AND CARBOHYDRATE IN THE CULTURE OF JUVENILE SEA URCHIN Lytechinus variegatus.

PubMed

Heflin, Laura E; Makowsky, Robert; Taylor, J Christopher; Williams, Michael B; Lawrence, Addison L; Watts, Stephen A

2016-10-01

Juvenile Lytechinus variegatus (ca. 3.95± 0.54 g) were fed one of 10 formulated diets with different protein (ranging from 11- 43%) and carbohydrate (12 or 18%; brackets determined from previous studies) levels. Urchins (n= 16 per treatment) were fed a daily sub-satiation ration equivalent to 2.0% of average body weight for 10 weeks. Our objective was (1) to create predictive models of growth, production and efficiency outcomes and (2) to generate economic analysis models in relation to these dietary outcomes for juvenile L. variegatus held in culture. At dietary protein levels below ca. 30%, models for most growth and production outcomes predicted increased rates of growth and production among urchins fed diets containing 18% dietary carbohydrate levels as compared to urchins fed diets containing 12% dietary carbohydrate. For most outcomes, growth and production was predicted to increase with increasing level of dietary protein up to ca. 30%, after which, no further increase in growth and production were predicted. Likewise, dry matter production efficiency was predicted to increase with increasing protein level up to ca. 30%, with urchins fed diets with 18% carbohydrate exhibiting greater efficiency than those fed diets with 12% carbohydrate. The energetic cost of dry matter production was optimal at protein levels less than those required for maximal weight gain and gonad production, suggesting an increased energetic cost (decreased energy efficiency) is required to increase gonad production relative to somatic growth. Economic analysis models predict when cost of feed ingredients are low, the lowest cost per gram of wet weight gain will occur at 18% dietary carbohydrate and ca. 25- 30% dietary protein. In contrast, lowest cost per gram of wet weight gain will occur at 12% dietary carbohydrate and ca. 35- 40% dietary protein when feed ingredient costs are high or average. For both 18 and 12% levels of dietary carbohydrate, cost per gram of wet weight gain is predicted to be maximized at low dietary protein levels, regardless of feed ingredient costs. These models will compare dietary requirements and growth outcomes in relation to economic costs and provide insight for future commercialization of sea urchin aquaculture.

Discovery of the Electronic Spectra of Hps and Dps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimminger, Robert A.; Wei, Jie; Ellis, Blaine; Clouthier, Dennis J.; Wang, Zhong; Sears, Trevor

2009-06-01

The hitherto unknown electronic spectrum of the closed shell transient molecule HPS has been observed in the 685 - 846 nm region by laser-induced fluorescence and single vibronic level emission techniques. HPS (and DPS) were produced in a pulsed electric discharge jet using a precursor mixture of 3% PH_3 and 1% H_2S (or PD_3 and D_2S) in high pressure argon. The weak set of observed bands are assigned to the à ^1A^''-X˜ ^1A^' electronic transition on the basis of chemical evidence, isotope shifts and the correspondence of the vibrational frequencies, excitation energy, and band contours with predictions based on our own high level ab initio calculations. Theory predicts that the HPS bond angle decreases on electronic excitation, contrary to expectations based on Walsh diagrams.

Vibration-rotation transfer in molecular super rotors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaffery, Anthony J.

2000-12-01

The collisional behavior of (X)6Li2 molecules in very high rotational levels of v=0 is considered. Highly efficient vibration-rotation transfer is predicted in these "super rotors" particularly when the conditions for quasiresonant transfer are fulfilled. This requires simultaneous near-resonance in energy and in angular momentum. Values of Δj for which quasiresonant vibration-rotation transfer (QRT) occurs become smaller as initial rotor state increases and transfer is likely to become particularly fast for Δj=2, predicted to occur when ji=130. This behavior is contrasted with the inefficiency of pure rotational transfer within the v=0 level for fast-rotating molecules. QRT will take place for quite cold collisions and thus will provide competition for the spinning-up process used to create the super rotors.

Results of a heart disease risk-factor screening among traditional college students.

PubMed

Spencer, Leslie

2002-05-01

The author collected data on serum cholesterol, blood pressure, and self-reported health behavior in 226 college students aged 18 to 26 years. Twenty-nine percent had undesirable total cholesterol levels, 10% had high cholesterol, 10% had high systolic blood pressure, and 11% had high diastolic blood pressure. Half or more of the participants consumed a diet high in saturated fats, engaged in binge drinking, had a parental risk for high cholesterol or blood pressure, or reported they experienced elevated stress levels. Men had higher risk-factor levels than women. Findings from a regression analysis revealed that smoking, binge drinking, lack of cardiovascular exercise, and eating a high saturated-fat diet were predictive of undesirable cholesterol levels. Study limitations included self-selection of participants and single measurements of blood pressure and cholesterol. Trained students served as screeners in the program for providing an effective, low-cost screening intervention.

Interpreting Black-Box Classifiers Using Instance-Level Visual Explanations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tamagnini, Paolo; Krause, Josua W.; Dasgupta, Aritra

2017-05-14

To realize the full potential of machine learning in diverse real- world domains, it is necessary for model predictions to be readily interpretable and actionable for the human in the loop. Analysts, who are the users but not the developers of machine learning models, often do not trust a model because of the lack of transparency in associating predictions with the underlying data space. To address this problem, we propose Rivelo, a visual analytic interface that enables analysts to understand the causes behind predictions of binary classifiers by interactively exploring a set of instance-level explanations. These explanations are model-agnostic, treatingmore » a model as a black box, and they help analysts in interactively probing the high-dimensional binary data space for detecting features relevant to predictions. We demonstrate the utility of the interface with a case study analyzing a random forest model on the sentiment of Yelp reviews about doctors.« less

Is the AIMS65 score useful in predicting outcomes in peptic ulcer bleeding?

PubMed

Jung, Sung Hoon; Oh, Jung Hwan; Lee, Hye Yeon; Jeong, Joon Won; Go, Se Eun; You, Chan Ran; Jeon, Eun Jung; Choi, Sang Wook

2014-02-21

To evaluate the applicability of AIMS65 scores in predicting outcomes of peptic ulcer bleeding. This was a retrospective study in a single center between January 2006 and December 2011. We enrolled 522 patients with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage who visited the emergency room. High-risk patients were regarded as those who had re-bleeding within 30 d from the first endoscopy as well as those who died within 30 d of visiting the Emergency room. A total of 149 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding were analysed, and the AIMS65 score was used to retrospectively predict the high-risk patients. A total of 149 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding were analysed. The poor outcome group comprised 28 patients [male: 23 (82.1%) vs female: 5 (10.7%)] while the good outcome group included 121 patients [male: 93 (76.9%) vs female: 28 (23.1%)]. The mean age in each group was not significantly different. The mean serum albumin levels in the poor outcome group were slightly lower than those in the good outcome group (P = 0.072). For the prediction of poor outcome, the AIMS65 score had a sensitivity of 35.5% (95%CI: 27.0-44.8) and a specificity of 82.1% (95%CI: 63.1-93.9) at a score of 0. The AIMS65 score was insufficient for predicting outcomes in peptic ulcer bleeding (area under curve = 0.571; 95%CI: 0.49-0.65). The AIMS65 score may therefore not be suitable for predicting clinical outcomes in peptic ulcer bleeding. Low albumin levels may be a risk factor associated with high mortality in peptic ulcer bleeding.

The Validity and Incremental Validity of Knowledge Tests, Low-Fidelity Simulations, and High-Fidelity Simulations for Predicting Job Performance in Advanced-Level High-Stakes Selection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lievens, Filip; Patterson, Fiona

2011-01-01

In high-stakes selection among candidates with considerable domain-specific knowledge and experience, investigations of whether high-fidelity simulations (assessment centers; ACs) have incremental validity over low-fidelity simulations (situational judgment tests; SJTs) are lacking. Therefore, this article integrates research on the validity of…

Total insulinlike growth factor 1 and insulinlike growth factor binding protein levels, functional status, and mortality in older adults.

PubMed

Kaplan, Robert C; McGinn, Aileen P; Pollak, Michael N; Kuller, Lewis; Strickler, Howard D; Rohan, Thomas E; Xue, XiaoNan; Kritchevsky, Stephen B; Newman, Anne B; Psaty, Bruce M

2008-04-01

To assess the association between total insulinlike growth factor (IGF)-1, IGF binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1), and IGFBP-3 levels and functioning and mortality in older adults. Cohort study. One thousand one hundred twenty-two individuals aged 65 and older without prior cardiovascular disease events participating in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Baseline fasting plasma levels of IGF-1, IGFBP-1, and IGFBP-3 (defined as tertiles, T1-T3) were examined in relationship to handgrip strength, time to walk 15 feet, development of new difficulties with activities of daily living (ADLs), and mortality. Higher IGFBP-1 predicted worse handgrip strength (P-trend(T1-T3)<.01) and slower walking speed (P-trend(T1-T3)=.03), lower IGF-1 had a borderline significant association with worse handgrip strength (P-trend(T1-T3)=.06), and better grip strength was observed in the middle IGFBP-3 tertile than in the low or high tertiles (P=.03). Adjusted for age, sex, and race, high IGFBP-1 predicted greater mortality (P-trend(T1-T3)<.001, hazard ratio (HR)(T3vsT1)=1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.15-1.90); this association was borderline significant after additional confounder adjustment (P-trend(T1-T3)=.05, HR(T3vsT1)=1.35, 95% CI=0.98-1.87). High IGFBP-1 was associated with greater risk of incident ADL difficulties after adjustment for age, sex, race, and other confounders (P-trend(T1-T3)=.04, HR(T3vsT1)=1.40, CI=1.01-1.94). Neither IGF-1 nor IGFBP-3 level predicted mortality or incident ADL difficulties. In adults aged 65 and older, high IGFBP-1 levels were associated with greater risk of mortality and poorer functional ability, whereas IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 had little association with these outcomes.

Informativeness of Early Huntington Disease Signs about Gene Status.

PubMed

Oster, Emily; Eberly, Shirley W; Dorsey, E Ray; Kayson-Rubin, Elise; Oakes, David; Shoulson, Ira

2015-01-01

The cohort-level risk of Huntington disease (HD) is related to the age and symptom level of the cohort, but this relationship has not been made precise. To predict the evolving likelihood of carrying the Huntington disease (HD) gene for at-risk adults using age and sign level. Using data from adults with early signs and symptoms of HD linked to information on genetic status, we use Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability that an undiagnosed individual of a certain age and sign level has an expanded CAG repeat. Both age and sign levels have substantial influence on the likelihood of HD onset, and the probability of eventual diagnosis changes as those at risk age and exhibit (or fail to exhibit) symptoms. For example, our data suggest that in a cohort of individuals age 26 with a Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS) motor score of 7-10 70% of them will carry the HD mutation. For individuals age 56, the same motor score suggests only a 40% chance of carrying the mutation. Early motor signs of HD, overall and the chorea subscore, were highly predictive of disease onset at any age. However, body mass index (BMI) and cognitive performance scores were not as highly predictive. These results suggest that if researchers or clinicians are looking for early clues of HD, it may be more foretelling to look at motor rather than cognitive signs. Application of similar approaches could be used with other adult-onset genetic conditions.

Addiction resistance: Definition, validation and association with mastery.

PubMed

Kendler, Kenneth S; Myers, John

2015-09-01

For given levels of psychoactive substance use, symptoms of substance use disorder (SUD) can vary widely. The concept of addiction resistance (AR) seeks to capture this variation so we can understand its causes. In a population-based twin sample, AR was defined as the deviation in the number of reported SUD criteria for a given substance from that predicted from the level of maximal consumption. Therefore, subjects with strong AR demonstrate few symptoms of SUD even at high levels of consumption. Twin modeling was performed by Mx. We assessed AR for alcohol, nicotine and cannabis. Heritability was assessed at two occasions thereby correcting for measurement error and ranged from 35 to 52% with no evidence for shared environment. ARs for alcohol, nicotine and cannabis were relatively stable over time and were substantially predicted by parental history of SUD, early adversity, comorbidity with both internalizing and externalizing disorders, personality and especially by the trait of mastery. AR, which assesses individual variation in sensitivity to the development of SUD for a given level of drug exposure, may be a useful concept for addiction research. As applied to common psychoactive substances, AR is moderately heritable, relatively stable and predicted by family history, comorbidity and personality. The relationship with mastery is of particular interest in that it may reflect an ability to resist the progression of the addictive process into key life domains and to avoid loss of control of intake, even when consuming at high levels. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of polygenic risk scores on lipid levels and dyslipidemia in a psychiatric population receiving weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs.

PubMed

Delacrétaz, Aurélie; Lagares Santos, Patricia; Saigi Morgui, Nuria; Vandenberghe, Frederik; Glatard, Anaïs; Gholam-Rezaee, Mehdi; von Gunten, Armin; Conus, Philippe; Eap, Chin B

2017-12-01

Dyslipidemia represents a major health issue in psychiatry. We determined whether weighted polygenic risk scores (wPRSs) combining multiple single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with lipid levels in the general population are associated with lipid levels [high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), total cholesterol (TC), and triglycerides] and/or dyslipidemia in patients receiving weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs. We also determined whether genetics improve the predictive power of dyslipidemia. The influence of wPRS on lipid levels was firstly assessed in a discovery psychiatric sample (n=332) and was then tested for replication in an independent psychiatric sample (n=140). The contribution of genetic markers to predict dyslipidemia was evaluated in the combined psychiatric sample. wPRSs were significantly associated with the four lipid traits in the discovery (P≤0.02) and in the replication sample (P≤0.03). Patients whose wPRS was higher than the median wPRS had significantly higher LDL, TC, and triglyceride levels (0.20, 0.32 and 0.26 mmol/l, respectively; P≤0.004) and significantly lower HDL levels (0.13 mmol/l; P<0.0001) compared with others. Adding wPRS to clinical data significantly improved dyslipidemia prediction of HDL (P=0.03) and a trend for improvement was observed for the prediction of TC dyslipidemia (P=0.08). Population-based wPRSs have thus significant effects on lipid levels in the psychiatric population. As genetics improved the predictive power of dyslipidemia development, only 24 patients need to be genotyped to prevent the development of one case of HDL hypocholesterolemia. If confirmed by further prospective investigations, the present results could be used for individualizing psychotropic treatment.

High invasion potential of Hydrilla verticillata in the Americas predicted using ecological niche modeling combined with genetic data.

PubMed

Zhu, Jinning; Xu, Xuan; Tao, Qing; Yi, Panpan; Yu, Dan; Xu, Xinwei

2017-07-01

Ecological niche modeling is an effective tool to characterize the spatial distribution of suitable areas for species, and it is especially useful for predicting the potential distribution of invasive species. The widespread submerged plant Hydrilla verticillata (hydrilla) has an obvious phylogeographical pattern: Four genetic lineages occupy distinct regions in native range, and only one lineage invades the Americas. Here, we aimed to evaluate climatic niche conservatism of hydrilla in North America at the intraspecific level and explore its invasion potential in the Americas by comparing climatic niches in a phylogenetic context. Niche shift was found in the invasion process of hydrilla in North America, which is probably mainly attributed to high levels of somatic mutation. Dramatic changes in range expansion in the Americas were predicted in the situation of all four genetic lineages invading the Americas or future climatic changes, especially in South America; this suggests that there is a high invasion potential of hydrilla in the Americas. Our findings provide useful information for the management of hydrilla in the Americas and give an example of exploring intraspecific climatic niche to better understand species invasion.

Angiogenic factors for prediction of preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction onset in high-risk women: AngioPred study.

PubMed

Raia-Barjat, Tiphaine; Prieux, Carole; Gris, Jean-Christophe; Chapelle, Céline; Laporte, Silvy; Chauleur, Céline

2017-09-22

The study aimed to compare the level of two angiogenic factors, soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt1) and soluble endoglin (sEng), for the prediction of preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction in high-risk pregnant women. A prospective multicenter cohort study of 200 pregnant patients was conducted between June 2008 and October 2010. sFlt1 and sEng were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Forty-five patients developed a placenta-mediated adverse pregnancy outcome. Plasma levels of sFlt1 and sEng were higher in patients who will experience a preeclampsia at 28, 32, and 36 weeks compared with patients with no complication. The same results were observed for intrauterine growth restriction. Plasma levels of sFlt1 and sEng were not significantly different for patients with preeclampsia compare to patients with intrauterine growth restriction. Patients with early pre-eclampsia (PE) had very high rates of angiogenic factors at 20, 24, and 28 weeks. Patients with late PE and early and late intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) had high rates at 32 and 36 weeks. In high-risk women, angiogenic factors are disturbed before the onset of preeclampsia and this is true for intrauterine growth restriction.

Urinary 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-oxodG) level can predict acute renal damage in young children with urinary tract infection.

PubMed

Chien, Jien-Wen; Wang, Lien-Yen; Cheng, Yu-Shan; Tsai, Yi-Giien; Liu, Chin-San

2014-06-01

There are no good biomarkers to predict renal parenchymal involvement in children with urinary tract infection (UTI). Children (N = 73) younger than 5 years with UTI were enrolled. Urinary levels of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-oxodG) and total antioxidant capacity (TAC) were checked as markers of oxidative stress and antioxidant capacity, respectively. Tc99m-dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) renal scintigraphy was used to find evidence of renal involvement. Patients with positive DMSA findings had higher levels of urinary 8-oxodG (p = 0.003) and higher urinary TAC (p = 0.001) than patients with normal DMSA findings. High level of urinary 8-oxodG may be a risk factor of severe renal damage.

Predictors of burnout and health status in Samaritans' listening volunteers.

PubMed

Roche, Adeline; Ogden, Jane

2017-12-01

Samaritan listening volunteers provide emotional support to people in distress or suicidal. Samaritans' has high volunteer turnover, which may be due to burnout. This study evaluated the role of demographic and psychosocial factors in predicting Samaritans listening volunteers' burnout and health status. Samaritans' listening volunteers (n = 216) from seven branches across UK completed an online survey to assess their levels of burnout (emotional exhaustion, depersonalisation, personal accomplishment), subjective health status, coping, empathy and social support. Overall, listeners showed low levels of burnout and good health. Regression analysis revealed that higher emotional exhaustion was predicted by younger age and avoidant coping style; higher depersonalisation was predicted by lower empathy fantasy and higher avoidant coping style; lower personal accomplishment scores were predicted by higher empathy personal distress and worse health status was predicted by more hours per week spent on listening duties, lower social support and higher avoidant coping style. Overall, different factors influenced different facets of burnout. However, higher use of avoidant coping style consistently predicted higher burnout and worse health status, suggesting avoidant coping is an important target for intervention.

Cognitive Vulnerability to Depressive Symptoms in Children: The Protective Role of Self-efficacy Beliefs in a Multi-Wave Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Steca, P.; Abela, J. R. Z.; Monzani, D.; Greco, A.; Hazel, N. A.; Hankin, B. L.

2015-01-01

The current multi-wave longitudinal study on childhood examined the role that social and academic self-efficacy beliefs and cognitive vulnerabilities play in predicting depressive symptoms in response to elevations in idiographic stressors. Children (N = 554; males: 51.4%) attending second and third grade completed measures of depressive symptoms, negative cognitive styles, negative life events, and academic and social self-efficacy beliefs at four time-points over 6 months. Results showed that high levels of academic and social self-efficacy beliefs predicted lower levels of depressive symptoms, whereas negative cognitive styles about consequences predicted higher depression. Furthermore, children reporting higher social self-efficacy beliefs showed a smaller elevation in levels of depressive symptoms when reporting an increases in stress than children with lower social self-efficacy beliefs. Findings point to the role of multiple factors in predicting children’s depression in the long term and commend the promotion of self-efficacy beliefs and the modification of cognitive dysfunctional styles as relevant protective factors. PMID:23740171

Predicting Changes in Depressive Symptoms from Pregnancy to Postpartum: The Role of Brooding Rumination and Negative Inferential Styles

PubMed Central

Barnum, Sarah E.; Woody, Mary L.; Gibb, Brandon E.

2014-01-01

The current study examined the role of cognitive factors in the development and maintenance of depressive symptoms from pregnancy into the postpartum period. One hundred and one women were assessed for levels of rumination (brooding and reflection), negative inferential styles, and depressive symptoms in their third trimester of pregnancy and depressive symptom levels again at four and eight weeks postpartum. We found that, although none of the three cognitive variables predicted women’s initial depressive reactions following childbirth (from pregnancy to one month postpartum), brooding rumination and negative inferential styles predicted longer-term depressive symptom changes (from pregnancy to two months postpartum). However, the predictive validity of women’s negative inferential styles was limited to women already exhibiting relatively high depressive symptom levels during pregnancy, suggesting that it was more strongly related to the maintenance of depressive symptoms into the postpartum period rather than increases in depressive symptoms following childbirth. Modifying cognitive risk factors, therefore, may be an important focus of intervention for depression during pregnancy. PMID:25401383

Online gaming and risks predict cyberbullying perpetration and victimization in adolescents.

PubMed

Chang, Fong-Ching; Chiu, Chiung-Hui; Miao, Nae-Fang; Chen, Ping-Hung; Lee, Ching-Mei; Huang, Tzu-Fu; Pan, Yun-Chieh

2015-02-01

The present study examined factors associated with the emergence and cessation of youth cyberbullying and victimization in Taiwan. A total of 2,315 students from 26 high schools were assessed in the 10th grade, with follow-up performed in the 11th grade. Self-administered questionnaires were collected in 2010 and 2011. Multiple logistic regression was conducted to examine the factors. Multivariate analysis results indicated that higher levels of risk factors (online game use, exposure to violence in media, internet risk behaviors, cyber/school bullying experiences) in the 10th grade coupled with an increase in risk factors from grades 10 to 11 could be used to predict the emergence of cyberbullying perpetration/victimization. In contrast, lower levels of risk factors in the 10th grade and higher levels of protective factors coupled with a decrease in risk factors predicted the cessation of cyberbullying perpetration/victimization. Online game use, exposure to violence in media, Internet risk behaviors, and cyber/school bullying experiences can be used to predict the emergence and cessation of youth cyberbullying perpetration and victimization.

The Effects of General Social Support and Social Support for Racial Discrimination on African American Women’s Well-Being

PubMed Central

Seawell, Asani H.; Cutrona, Carolyn E.; Russell, Daniel W.

2012-01-01

The present longitudinal study examined the role of general and tailored social support in mitigating the deleterious impact of racial discrimination on depressive symptoms and optimism in a large sample of African American women. Participants were 590 African American women who completed measures assessing racial discrimination, general social support, tailored social support for racial discrimination, depressive symptoms, and optimism at two time points (2001–2002 and 2003–2004). Our results indicated that higher levels of general and tailored social support predicted optimism one year later; changes in both types of support also predicted changes in optimism over time. Although initial levels of neither measure of social support predicted depressive symptoms over time, changes in tailored support predicted changes in depressive symptoms. We also sought to determine whether general and tailored social support “buffer” or diminish the negative effects of racial discrimination on depressive symptoms and optimism. Our results revealed a classic buffering effect of tailored social support, but not general support on depressive symptoms for women experiencing high levels of discrimination. PMID:24443614

A Short Guide to the Climatic Variables of the Last Glacial Maximum for Biogeographers.

PubMed

Varela, Sara; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S; Terribile, Levi Carina

2015-01-01

Ecological niche models are widely used for mapping the distribution of species during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Although the selection of the variables and General Circulation Models (GCMs) used for constructing those maps determine the model predictions, we still lack a discussion about which variables and which GCM should be included in the analysis and why. Here, we analyzed the climatic predictions for the LGM of 9 different GCMs in order to help biogeographers to select their GCMs and climatic layers for mapping the species ranges in the LGM. We 1) map the discrepancies between the climatic predictions of the nine GCMs available for the LGM, 2) analyze the similarities and differences between the GCMs and group them to help researchers choose the appropriate GCMs for calibrating and projecting their ecological niche models (ENM) during the LGM, and 3) quantify the agreement of the predictions for each bioclimatic variable to help researchers avoid the environmental variables with a poor consensus between models. Our results indicate that, in absolute values, GCMs have a strong disagreement in their temperature predictions for temperate areas, while the uncertainties for the precipitation variables are in the tropics. In spite of the discrepancies between model predictions, temperature variables (BIO1-BIO11) are highly correlated between models. Precipitation variables (BIO12-BIO19) show no correlation between models, and specifically, BIO14 (precipitation of the driest month) and BIO15 (Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)) show the highest level of discrepancy between GCMs. Following our results, we strongly recommend the use of different GCMs for constructing or projecting ENMs, particularly when predicting the distribution of species that inhabit the tropics and the temperate areas of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, because climatic predictions for those areas vary greatly among GCMs. We also recommend the exclusion of BIO14 and BIO15 from ENMs because those variables show a high level of discrepancy between GCMs. Thus, by excluding them, we decrease the level of uncertainty of our predictions. All the climatic layers produced for this paper are freely available in http://ecoclimate.org/.

A Short Guide to the Climatic Variables of the Last Glacial Maximum for Biogeographers

PubMed Central

Varela, Sara; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S.; Terribile, Levi Carina

2015-01-01

Ecological niche models are widely used for mapping the distribution of species during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Although the selection of the variables and General Circulation Models (GCMs) used for constructing those maps determine the model predictions, we still lack a discussion about which variables and which GCM should be included in the analysis and why. Here, we analyzed the climatic predictions for the LGM of 9 different GCMs in order to help biogeographers to select their GCMs and climatic layers for mapping the species ranges in the LGM. We 1) map the discrepancies between the climatic predictions of the nine GCMs available for the LGM, 2) analyze the similarities and differences between the GCMs and group them to help researchers choose the appropriate GCMs for calibrating and projecting their ecological niche models (ENM) during the LGM, and 3) quantify the agreement of the predictions for each bioclimatic variable to help researchers avoid the environmental variables with a poor consensus between models. Our results indicate that, in absolute values, GCMs have a strong disagreement in their temperature predictions for temperate areas, while the uncertainties for the precipitation variables are in the tropics. In spite of the discrepancies between model predictions, temperature variables (BIO1-BIO11) are highly correlated between models. Precipitation variables (BIO12- BIO19) show no correlation between models, and specifically, BIO14 (precipitation of the driest month) and BIO15 (Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)) show the highest level of discrepancy between GCMs. Following our results, we strongly recommend the use of different GCMs for constructing or projecting ENMs, particularly when predicting the distribution of species that inhabit the tropics and the temperate areas of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, because climatic predictions for those areas vary greatly among GCMs. We also recommend the exclusion of BIO14 and BIO15 from ENMs because those variables show a high level of discrepancy between GCMs. Thus, by excluding them, we decrease the level of uncertainty of our predictions. All the climatic layers produced for this paper are freely available in http://ecoclimate.org/. PMID:26068930

A dark past, a restrained present, and an apocalyptic future: time perspective, personality, and life satisfaction among anorexia nervosa patients.

PubMed

Garcia, Danilo; Granjard, Alexandre; Lundblad, Suzanna; Archer, Trevor

2017-01-01

Despite reporting low levels of well-being, anorexia nervosa patients express temperament traits (e.g., extraversion and persistence) necessary for high levels of life satisfaction. Nevertheless, among individuals without eating disorders, a balanced organization of the flow of time, influences life satisfaction beyond temperamental dispositions. A balanced time perspective is defined as: high past positive, low past negative, high present hedonistic, low present fatalistic, and high future. We investigated differences in time perspective dimensions, personality traits, and life satisfaction between anorexia nervosa patients and matched controls. We also investigated if the personality traits and the outlook on time associated to positive levels of life satisfaction among controls also predicted anorexia patients' life satisfaction. Additionally, we investigated if time perspective dimensions predicted life satisfaction beyond personality traits among both patients and controls. A total of 88 anorexia nervosa patients from a clinic in the West of Sweden and 111 gender-age matched controls from a university in the West of Sweden participated in the Study. All participants responded to the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory, the Ten Item Personality Inventory, and the Temporal Satisfaction with Life Scale. A t -test showed that patients scored higher in the past negative, the present fatalistic, and the future dimensions, lower in the past positive and the present hedonistic dimensions, higher in conscientiousness, extraversion, and agreeableness, and lower in life satisfaction. Regression analyses showed that life satisfaction was predicted by openness to experience and emotional stability for controls and by emotional stability among patients. When time dimensions were entered in the regression, emotional stability and the past negative and past positive time dimensions predicted life satisfaction among controls, but only the past positive and present hedonistic time dimensions predicted life satisfaction among patients. Anorexia patients were less satisfied with life despite being more conscientious, social, and agreeable than controls. Moreover, compared to controls, patients had an unbalanced time perspective: a dark view of the past (i.e., high past negative), a restrained present (i.e., low present hedonistic) and an apocalyptic view of the future (i.e., high present fatalistic). It is plausible to suggest that, therapeutic interventions should focus on empowering patients to cultivate a sentimental and positive view of the past (i.e., high past positive) and the desire to experience pleasure without concern for future consequences (i.e., high present hedonistic) so that they can make self-directed and flexible choices for their own well-being. Such interventions might have effects on life satisfaction beyond the patients' temperamental disposition.

Circulating basal anti-Müllerian hormone levels as predictor of ovarian response in women undergoing ovarian stimulation for in vitro fertilization.

PubMed

Nardo, Luciano G; Gelbaya, Tarek A; Wilkinson, Hannah; Roberts, Stephen A; Yates, Allen; Pemberton, Phil; Laing, Ian

2009-11-01

To evaluate the clinical value of basal anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) measurements compared with other available determinants, apart from chronologic age, in the prediction of ovarian response to gonadotrophin stimulation. Prospective cohort study. Tertiary referral center for reproductive medicine and an IVF unit. Women undergoing their first cycle of controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) for in vitro fertilization (IVF). Basal levels of FSH and AMH as well as antral follicle count (AFC) were measured in 165 subjects. All patients were followed prospectively and their cycle outcomes recorded. Predictive value of FSH, AMH, and AFC for extremes of ovarian response to stimulation. Out of the 165 women, 134 were defined as normal responders, 15 as poor responders, and 16 as high responders. Subjects in the poor response group were significantly older then those in the other two groups. Anti-Müllerian hormone levels and AFC were markedly raised in the high responders and decreased in the poor responders. Compared with FSH and AFC, AMH performed better in the prediction of excessive response to ovarian stimulation-AMH area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC(AUC)) 0.81, FSH ROC(AUC) 0.66, AFC ROC(AUC) 0.69. For poor response, AMH (ROC(AUC) 0.88) was a significantly better predictor than FSH (ROC(AUC) 0.63) but not AFC (ROC(AUC) 0.81). AMH prediction of ovarian response was independent of age and PCOS. Anti-Müllerian hormone cutoffs of >3.75 ng/mL and <1.0 ng/mL would have modest sensitivity and specificity in predicting the extremes of response. Circulating AMH has the ability to predict excessive and poor response to stimulation with exogenous gonadotrophins. Overall, this biomarker is superior to basal FSH and AFC, and has the potential to be incorporated in to work-up protocols to predict patient's ovarian response to treatment and to individualize strategies aiming at reducing the cancellation rate and the iatrogenic complications of COH.

High-resolution spatiotemporal mapping of PM2.5 concentrations at Mainland China using a combined BME-GWR technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Lu; Lang, Yichao; Christakos, George

2018-01-01

With rapid economic development, industrialization and urbanization, the ambient air PM2.5 has become a major pollutant linked to respiratory, heart and lung diseases. In China, PM2.5 pollution constitutes an extreme environmental and social problem of widespread public concern. In this work we estimate ground-level PM2.5 from satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD), topography data, meteorological data, and pollutant emission using an integrative technique. In particular, Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) analysis was combined with Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) theory to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of PM2.5 exposure in a large region of China and generate informative PM2.5 space-time predictions (estimates). It was found that, due to its integrative character, the combined BME-GWR method offers certain improvements in the space-time prediction of PM2.5 concentrations over China compared to previous techniques. The combined BME-GWR technique generated realistic maps of space-time PM2.5 distribution, and its performance was superior to that of seven previous studies of satellite-derived PM2.5 concentrations in China in terms of prediction accuracy. The purely spatial GWR model can only be used at a fixed time, whereas the integrative BME-GWR approach accounts for cross space-time dependencies and can predict PM2.5 concentrations in the composite space-time domain. The 10-fold results of BME-GWR modeling (R2 = 0.883, RMSE = 11.39 μg /m3) demonstrated a high level of space-time PM2.5 prediction (estimation) accuracy over China, revealing a definite trend of severe PM2.5 levels from the northern coast toward inland China (Nov 2015-Feb 2016). Future work should focus on the addition of higher resolution AOD data, developing better satellite-based prediction models, and related air pollutants for space-time PM2.5 prediction purposes.

Serum Albumin and High-Sensitivity C-reactive Protein are Independent Risk Factors of Chronic Kidney Disease in Middle-Aged Japanese Individuals: the Circulatory Risk in Communities Study

PubMed Central

Kubo, Sachimi; Kitamura, Akihiko; Imano, Hironori; Cui, Renzhe; Yamagishi, Kazumasa; Umesawa, Mitsumasa; Muraki, Isao; Kiyama, Masahiko; Okada, Takeo

2016-01-01

Aim: It is important to explore predictive markers other than conventional cardiovascular risk factors for early detection and treatment of chronic kidney disease (CKD), a major risk factor for end-stage renal failure. We hypothesized that serum albumin and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) to be independent markers, and examined their associations with the risk of CKD. Methods: We examined the associations of serum albumin and hs-CRP levels with the risk of incident CKD, in 2535 Japanese adults aged 40–69 years without CKD at baseline during a median 9.0-year follow-up after adjustment for known cardiovascular risk factors. Results: During the follow-up period, 367 cases of CKD developed. In multivariable analyses adjusted for known risk factors, the CKD hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for the highest versus lowest quartiles of serum albumin levels were 0.69 (0.40–1.17) for men and 0.42 (0.28–0.64) for women. Corresponding values for hs-CRP were 0.95 (0.54–1.67) for men and 1.85 (1.25 -2.75) for women. The association of combined serum albumin and hs-CRP with the risk of CKD was examined for women. The hazard ratio was 1.72 (1.17–2.54) for low versus higher albumin levels at lower hs-CRP levels, but such an association was not observed at high hs-CRP level. The hazard ratio was 1.96 (1.44–2.66) for high versus lower hs-CRP levels at higher serum albumin levels, but such association was not observed at low serum albumin level. Conclusion: Both low serum albumin and high hs-CRP levels were predictive of CKD for women. PMID:26911856

Are the major risk/need factors predictive of both female and male reoffending?: a test with the eight domains of the level of service/case management inventory.

PubMed

Andrews, Donald A; Guzzo, Lina; Raynor, Peter; Rowe, Robert C; Rettinger, L Jill; Brews, Albert; Wormith, J Stephen

2012-02-01

The Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI) and the Youth version (YLS/CMI) generate an assessment of risk/need across eight domains that are considered to be relevant for girls and boys and for women and men. Aggregated across five data sets, the predictive validity of each of the eight domains was gender-neutral. The composite total score (LS/CMI total risk/need) was strongly associated with the recidivism of males (mean r = .39, mean AUC = .746) and very strongly associated with the recidivism of females (mean r = .53, mean AUC = .827). The enhanced validity of LS total risk/need with females was traced to the exceptional validity of Substance Abuse with females. The intra-data set conclusions survived the introduction of two very large samples composed of female offenders exclusively. Finally, the mean incremental contributions of gender and the gender-by-risk level interactions in the prediction of criminal recidivism were minimal compared to the relatively strong validity of the LS/CMI risk level. Although the variance explained by gender was minimal and although high-risk cases were high-risk cases regardless of gender, the recidivism rates of lower risk females were lower than the recidivism rates of lower risk males, suggesting possible implications for test interpretation and policy.

A Hierarchical Generative Framework of Language Processing: Linking Language Perception, Interpretation, and Production Abnormalities in Schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Brown, Meredith; Kuperberg, Gina R.

2015-01-01

Language and thought dysfunction are central to the schizophrenia syndrome. They are evident in the major symptoms of psychosis itself, particularly as disorganized language output (positive thought disorder) and auditory verbal hallucinations (AVHs), and they also manifest as abnormalities in both high-level semantic and contextual processing and low-level perception. However, the literatures characterizing these abnormalities have largely been separate and have sometimes provided mutually exclusive accounts of aberrant language in schizophrenia. In this review, we propose that recent generative probabilistic frameworks of language processing can provide crucial insights that link these four lines of research. We first outline neural and cognitive evidence that real-time language comprehension and production normally involve internal generative circuits that propagate probabilistic predictions to perceptual cortices — predictions that are incrementally updated based on prediction error signals as new inputs are encountered. We then explain how disruptions to these circuits may compromise communicative abilities in schizophrenia by reducing the efficiency and robustness of both high-level language processing and low-level speech perception. We also argue that such disruptions may contribute to the phenomenology of thought-disordered speech and false perceptual inferences in the language system (i.e., AVHs). This perspective suggests a number of productive avenues for future research that may elucidate not only the mechanisms of language abnormalities in schizophrenia, but also promising directions for cognitive rehabilitation. PMID:26640435

First Trimester Urine and Serum Metabolomics for Prediction of Preeclampsia and Gestational Hypertension: A Prospective Screening Study.

PubMed

Austdal, Marie; Tangerås, Line H; Skråstad, Ragnhild B; Salvesen, Kjell; Austgulen, Rigmor; Iversen, Ann-Charlotte; Bathen, Tone F

2015-09-08

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, including preeclampsia, are major contributors to maternal morbidity. The goal of this study was to evaluate the potential of metabolomics to predict preeclampsia and gestational hypertension from urine and serum samples in early pregnancy, and elucidate the metabolic changes related to the diseases. Metabolic profiles were obtained by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy of serum and urine samples from 599 women at medium to high risk of preeclampsia (nulliparous or previous preeclampsia/gestational hypertension). Preeclampsia developed in 26 (4.3%) and gestational hypertension in 21 (3.5%) women. Multivariate analyses of the metabolic profiles were performed to establish prediction models for the hypertensive disorders individually and combined. Urinary metabolomic profiles predicted preeclampsia and gestational hypertension at 51.3% and 40% sensitivity, respectively, at 10% false positive rate, with hippurate as the most important metabolite for the prediction. Serum metabolomic profiles predicted preeclampsia and gestational hypertension at 15% and 33% sensitivity, respectively, with increased lipid levels and an atherogenic lipid profile as most important for the prediction. Combining maternal characteristics with the urinary hippurate/creatinine level improved the prediction rates of preeclampsia in a logistic regression model. The study indicates a potential future role of clinical importance for metabolomic analysis of urine in prediction of preeclampsia.

Genetic parameters for the prediction of abdominal fat traits using blood biochemical indicators in broilers.

PubMed

Zhang, H L; Xu, Z Q; Yang, L L; Wang, Y X; Li, Y M; Dong, J Q; Zhang, X Y; Jiang, X Y; Jiang, X F; Li, H; Zhang, D X; Zhang, H

2018-02-01

1. Excessive deposition of body fat, especially abdominal fat, is detrimental in chickens and the prevention of excessive fat accumulation is an important problem. The aim of this study was to identify blood biochemical indicators that could be used as criteria to select lean Yellow-feathered chicken lines. 2. Levels of blood biochemical indicators in the fed and fasted states and the abdominal fat traits were measured in 332 Guangxi Yellow chickens. In the fed state, the genetic correlations (r g ) of triglycerides and very low density lipoprotein levels were positive for the abdominal fat traits (0.47 ≤ r g  ≤ 0.67), whereas total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) showed higher negative correlations with abdominal fat traits (-0.59 ≤ r g  ≤ -0.33). Heritabilities of these blood biochemical parameters were high, varying from 0.26 to 0.60. 3. In the fasted state, HDL-C:LDL-C level was positively correlated with abdominal fat traits (0.35 ≤ r g  ≤ 0.38), but triglycerides, total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C, total protein, albumin, aspartate transaminase, uric acid and creatinine levels were negatively correlated with abdominal fat traits (-0.79 ≤ r g  ≤ -0.35). The heritabilities of these 10 blood biochemical parameters were high (0.22 ≤ h 2  ≤ 0.59). 4. In the fed state, optimal multiple regression models were constructed to predict abdominal fat traits by using triglycerides and LDL-C. In the fasted state, triglycerides, total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C, total protein, albumin and uric acid could be used to predict abdominal fat content. 5. It was concluded that these models in both nutritional states could be used to predict abdominal fat content in Guangxi Yellow broiler chickens.

High-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer: Use of Machine Learning to Predict Abdominopelvic Recurrence on CT on the Basis of Serial Cancer Antigen 125 Levels.

PubMed

Shinagare, Atul B; Balthazar, Patricia; Ip, Ivan K; Lacson, Ronilda; Liu, Joyce; Ramaiya, Nikhil; Khorasani, Ramin

2018-05-19

The aim of this study was to use machine learning to predict abdominal recurrence on CT on the basis of serial cancer antigen 125 (CA125) levels in patients with advanced high-grade serous ovarian cancer on surveillance. This institutional review board-approved, HIPAA-compliant, retrospective, hypothesis-generating study included all 57 patients (mean age, 61 ± 11.2 years) with advanced high-grade serous ovarian cancer who underwent cytoreductive surgery from January to December 2012, followed by surveillance abdominopelvic CT and corresponding CA125 levels. A blinded radiologist reviewed abdominopelvic CT studies until recurrence was noted. Four measures of CA125 were assessed: actual CA125 levels at the time of CT, absolute change since prior CT, relative change since prior CT, and rate of change since prior CT. Using machine learning, support vector machine models were optimized and evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation to determine the CA125 measure most predictive of abdominal recurrence. The association of the most accurate CA125 measure was further analyzed using Cox proportional-hazards model along with age, tumor size, stage, and degree of cytoreduction. Rate of change in CA125 was most predictive of abdominal recurrence in a linear kernel support vector machine model and was significantly higher preceding CT studies showing abdominal recurrence (median 13.2 versus 0.6 units/month; P = .007). On multivariate analysis, a higher rate of CA125 increase was significantly associated with recurrence (hazard ratio, 1.02 per 10 units change; 95% confidence interval, 1.0006-1.04; P = .04). A higher rate of CA125 increase is associated with abdominal recurrence. The rate of increase of CA125 may help in the selection of patients who are most likely to benefit from abdominopelvic CT in surveillance of ovarian cancer. Copyright © 2018 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accurate predictions of population-level changes in sequence and structural properties of HIV-1 Env using a volatility-controlled diffusion model

PubMed Central

DeLeon, Orlando; Hodis, Hagit; O’Malley, Yunxia; Johnson, Jacklyn; Salimi, Hamid; Zhai, Yinjie; Winter, Elizabeth; Remec, Claire; Eichelberger, Noah; Van Cleave, Brandon; Puliadi, Ramya; Harrington, Robert D.; Stapleton, Jack T.; Haim, Hillel

2017-01-01

The envelope glycoproteins (Envs) of HIV-1 continuously evolve in the host by random mutations and recombination events. The resulting diversity of Env variants circulating in the population and their continuing diversification process limit the efficacy of AIDS vaccines. We examined the historic changes in Env sequence and structural features (measured by integrity of epitopes on the Env trimer) in a geographically defined population in the United States. As expected, many Env features were relatively conserved during the 1980s. From this state, some features diversified whereas others remained conserved across the years. We sought to identify “clues” to predict the observed historic diversification patterns. Comparison of viruses that cocirculate in patients at any given time revealed that each feature of Env (sequence or structural) exists at a defined level of variance. The in-host variance of each feature is highly conserved among individuals but can vary between different HIV-1 clades. We designate this property “volatility” and apply it to model evolution of features as a linear diffusion process that progresses with increasing genetic distance. Volatilities of different features are highly correlated with their divergence in longitudinally monitored patients. Volatilities of features also correlate highly with their population-level diversification. Using volatility indices measured from a small number of patient samples, we accurately predict the population diversity that developed for each feature over the course of 30 years. Amino acid variants that evolved at key antigenic sites are also predicted well. Therefore, small “fluctuations” in feature values measured in isolated patient samples accurately describe their potential for population-level diversification. These tools will likely contribute to the design of population-targeted AIDS vaccines by effectively capturing the diversity of currently circulating strains and addressing properties of variants expected to appear in the future. PMID:28384158

OAST planning model for space systems technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sadin, S. R.

1978-01-01

The NASA Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) planning model for space systems technology is described, and some space technology forecasts of a general nature are reported. Technology forecasts are presented as a span of technology levels; uncertainties in level of commitment to project and in required time are taken into account, with emphasis on differences resulting from high or low commitment. Forecasts are created by combining several types of data, including information on past technology trends, the trends of past predictions, the rate of advancement predicted by experts in the field, and technology forecasts already published.

Systemic inflammatory response and serum lipopolysaccharide levels predict multiple organ failure and death in alcoholic hepatitis.

PubMed

Michelena, Javier; Altamirano, José; Abraldes, Juan G; Affò, Silvia; Morales-Ibanez, Oriol; Sancho-Bru, Pau; Dominguez, Marlene; García-Pagán, Juan Carlos; Fernández, Javier; Arroyo, Vicente; Ginès, Pere; Louvet, Alexandre; Mathurin, Philippe; Mehal, Wajahat Z; Caballería, Juan; Bataller, Ramón

2015-09-01

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) frequently progresses to multiple organ failure (MOF) and death. However, the driving factors are largely unknown. At admission, patients with AH often show criteria of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) even in the absence of an infection. We hypothesize that the presence of SIRS may predispose to MOF and death. To test this hypothesis, we studied a cohort including 162 patients with biopsy-proven AH. The presence of SIRS and infections was assessed in all patients, and multivariate analyses identified variables independently associated with MOF and 90-day mortality. At admission, 32 (19.8%) patients were diagnosed with a bacterial infection, while 75 (46.3%) fulfilled SIRS criteria; 58 patients (35.8%) developed MOF during hospitalization. Short-term mortality was significantly higher among patients who developed MOF (62.1% versus 3.8%, P < 0.001). The presence of SIRS was a major predictor of MOF (odds ratio = 2.69, P = 0.025) and strongly correlated with mortality. Importantly, the course of patients with SIRS with and without infection was similar in terms of MOF development and short-term mortality. Finally, we sought to identify serum markers that differentiate SIRS with and without infection. We studied serum levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and lipopolysaccharide at admission. All of them predicted mortality. Procalcitonin, but not high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, serum levels identified those patients with SIRS and infection. Lipopolysaccharide serum levels predicted MOF and the response to prednisolone. In the presence or absence of infections, SIRS is a major determinant of MOF and mortality in AH, and the mechanisms involved in the development of SIRS should be investigated; procalcitonin serum levels can help to identify patients with infection, and lipopolysaccharide levels may help to predict mortality and the response to steroids. © 2015 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

The 6-min push test is reliable and predicts low fitness in spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Cowan, Rachel E; Callahan, Morgan K; Nash, Mark S

2012-10-01

The objective of this study is to assess 6-min push test (6MPT) reliability, determine whether the 6MPT is sensitive to fitness differences, and assess if 6MPT distance predicts fitness level in persons with spinal cord injury (SCI) or disease. Forty individuals with SCI who could self-propel a manual wheelchair completed an incremental arm crank peak oxygen consumption assessment and two 6MPTs across 3 d (37% tetraplegia (TP), 63% paraplegia (PP), 85% men, 70% white, 63% Hispanic, mean age = 34 ± 10 yr, mean duration of injury = 13 ± 10 yr, and mean body mass index = 24 ± 5 kg.m). Intraclass correlation and Bland-Altman plots assessed 6MPT distance (m) reliability. Mann-Whitney U test compared 6MPT distance (m) of high and low fitness groups for TP and PP. The fitness status prediction was developed using N = 30 and validated in N = 10 (validation group (VG)). A nonstatistical prediction approach, below or above a threshold distance (TP = 445 m and PP = 604 m), was validated statistically by binomial logistic regression. Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were computed to evaluate the threshold approach. Intraclass correlation coefficients exceeded 0.90 for the whole sample and the TP/PP subsets. High fitness persons propelled farther than low fitness persons for both TP/PP (both P < 0.05). Binomial logistic regression (P < 0.008) predicted the same fitness levels in the VG as the threshold approach. In the VG, overall accuracy was 70%. Eighty-six percent of low fitness persons were correctly identified (sensitivity), and 33% of high fitness persons were correctly identified (specificity). The 6MPT may be a useful tool for SCI clinicians and researchers. 6MPT distance demonstrates excellent reliability and is sensitive to differences in fitness level. 6MPT distances less than a threshold distance may be an effective approach to identify low fitness in person with SCI.

The joint impact of cognitive performance in adolescence and familial cognitive aptitude on risk for major psychiatric disorders: a delineation of four potential pathways to illness.

PubMed

Kendler, K S; Ohlsson, H; Keefe, R S E; Sundquist, K; Sundquist, J

2018-04-01

How do joint measures of premorbid cognitive ability and familial cognitive aptitude (FCA) reflect risk for a diversity of psychiatric and substance use disorders? To address this question, we examined, using Cox models, the predictive effects of school achievement (SA) measured at age 16 and FCA-assessed from SA in siblings and cousins, and educational attainment in parents-on risk for 12 major psychiatric syndromes in 1 140 608 Swedes born 1972-1990. Four developmental patterns emerged. In the first, risk was predicted jointly by low levels of SA and high levels of FCA-that is a level of SA lower than would be predicted from the FCA. This pattern was strongest in autism spectrum disorders and schizophrenia, and weakest in bipolar illness. In these disorders, a pathologic process seems to have caused cognitive functioning to fall substantially short of familial potential. In the second pattern, seen in the internalizing conditions of major depression and anxiety disorders, risk was associated with low SA but was unrelated to FCA. Externalizing disorders-drug abuse and alcohol use disorders-demonstrated the third pattern, in which risk was predicted jointly by low SA and low FCA. The fourth pattern, seen in eating disorders, was directly opposite of that observed in externalizing disorders with risk associated with high SA and high FCA. When measured together, adolescent cognitive ability and FCA identified four developmental patterns leading to diverse psychiatric disorders. The value of cognitive assessments in psychiatric research can be substantially increased by also evaluating familial cognitive potential.

Using conditional probability to identify trends in intra-day high-frequency equity pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rechenthin, Michael; Street, W. Nick

2013-12-01

By examining the conditional probabilities of price movements in a popular US stock over different high-frequency intra-day timespans, varying levels of trend predictability are identified. This study demonstrates the existence of predictable short-term trends in the market; understanding the probability of price movement can be useful to high-frequency traders. Price movement was examined in trade-by-trade (tick) data along with temporal timespans between 1 s to 30 min for 52 one-week periods for one highly-traded stock. We hypothesize that much of the initial predictability of trade-by-trade (tick) data is due to traditional market dynamics, or the bouncing of the price between the stock’s bid and ask. Only after timespans of between 5 to 10 s does this cease to explain the predictability; after this timespan, two consecutive movements in the same direction occur with higher probability than that of movements in the opposite direction. This pattern holds up to a one-minute interval, after which the strength of the pattern weakens.

A High Level of Intestinal Alkaline Phosphatase Is Protective Against Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Irrespective of Obesity☆

PubMed Central

Malo, Madhu S.

2015-01-01

Mice deficient in intestinal alkaline phosphatase (IAP) develop type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We hypothesized that a high level of IAP might be protective against T2DM in humans. We determined IAP levels in the stools of 202 diabetic patients and 445 healthy non-diabetic control people. We found that compared to controls, T2DM patients have approx. 50% less IAP (mean +/− SEM: 67.4 +/− 3.2 vs 35.3 +/− 2.5 U/g stool, respectively; p < 0.000001) indicating a protective role of IAP against T2DM. Multiple logistic regression analyses showed an independent association between the IAP level and diabetes status. With each 25 U/g decrease in stool IAP, there is a 35% increased risk of diabetes. The study revealed that obese people with high IAP (approx. 65 U/g stool) do not develop T2DM. Approx. 65% of the healthy population have < 65.0 U/g stool IAP, and predictably, these people might have ‘the incipient metabolic syndrome’, including ‘incipient diabetes’, and might develop T2DM and other metabolic disorders in the near future. In conclusion, high IAP levels appear to be protective against diabetes irrespective of obesity, and a ‘temporal IAP profile’ might be a valuable tool for predicting ‘the incipient metabolic syndrome’, including ‘incipient diabetes’. PMID:26844282