Arnell, T D; de Virgilio, C; Chang, L; Bongard, F; Stabile, B E
The purpose was 1) to prospectively determine the prevalence of adverse events necessitating intensive care unit (ICU) monitoring in gallstone pancreatitis (GP) and 2) To identify admission prognostic indicators that predict the need for ICU unit monitoring. Prospective laboratory data, physiologic parameters, and APACHE II scores were gathered on 102 patients with GP over 14 months. Adverse events were defined as cardiac, respiratory, or renal failure, gastrointestinal bleeding, stroke, sepsis, and necrotizing pancreatitis. Patients were divided into Group 1 (no adverse events, n=95) and Group 2 (adverse events, n=7). There were no deaths and 7 (7%) adverse events, including necrotizing pancreatitis (3), cholangitis (2), and cardiac (2). APACHE 11 > or = 5 (P < 0.005), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) > or = 12 mmol/L (P < 0.005), white blood cell count (WBC) > or = 14.5 x 10(9)/L, (P < 0.001), heart rate > or = 100 bpm (P < 0.001), and glucose > or = 150 mg/dL (P < 0.005) were each independent predictors of adverse events. The sensitivity and specificity of these criteria for predicting severe complications requiring ICU care varied from 71 to 86 per cent and 78 to 87 per cent, respectively. The prevalence of adverse events necessitating ICU care in GP patients is low. Glucose, BUN, WBC, heart rate, and APACHE II scores are independent predictors of adverse events necessitating ICU care. Single criteria predicting the need for ICU care on admission are readily available on admission.
Goulden, Robert; Hoyle, Marie-Claire; Monis, Jessie; Railton, Darran; Riley, Victoria; Martin, Paul; Martina, Reynaldo; Nsutebu, Emmanuel
The third international consensus definition for sepsis recommended use of a new prognostic tool, the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), based on its ability to predict inhospital mortality and prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay in patients with suspected infection. While several studies have compared the prognostic accuracy of qSOFA to the Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) criteria in suspected sepsis, few have compared qSOFA and SIRS to the widely used National Early Warning Score (NEWS). This was a retrospective cohort study carried out in a UK tertiary centre. The study population comprised emergency admissions in whom sepsis was suspected and treated. The accuracy for predicting inhospital mortality and ICU admission was calculated and compared for qSOFA, SIRS and NEWS. Among 1818 patients, 53 were admitted to ICU (3%) and 265 died in hospital (15%). For predicting inhospital mortality, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for NEWS (0.65, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.68) was similar to qSOFA (0.62, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.66) (test for difference, P=0.18) and superior to SIRS (P<0.001), which was not predictive. The sensitivity of NEWS≥5 (74%, 95% CI 68% to 79%) was similar to SIRS≥2 (80%, 95% CI 74% to 84%) and higher than qSOFA≥2 (37%, 95% CI 31% to 43%). The specificity of NEWS≥5 (43%, 95% CI 41% to 46%) was higher than SIRS≥2 (21%, 95% CI 19% to 23%) and lower than qSOFA≥2 (79%, 95% CI 77% to 81%). The negative predictive value was 88% (86%-90%) for qSOFA, 86% (82%-89%) for SIRS and 91% (88%-93%) for NEWS. Results were similar for the secondary outcome of ICU admission. NEWS has equivalent or superior value for most test characteristics relative to SIRS and qSOFA, calling into question the rationale of adopting qSOFA in institutions where NEWS is already in use. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No
Muller, Matthew P; McGeer, Allison J; Hassan, Kazi; Marshall, John; Christian, Michael
The demand for inpatient medical services increases during influenza season. A scoring system capable of identifying influenza patients at low risk death or ICU admission could help clinicians make hospital admission decisions. Hospitalized patients with laboratory confirmed influenza were identified over 3 influenza seasons at 25 Ontario hospitals. Each patient was assigned a score for 6 pneumonia severity and 2 sepsis scores using the first data available following their registration in the emergency room. In-hospital mortality and ICU admission were the outcomes. Score performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the sensitivity and specificity for identifying low risk patients (risk of outcome <5%). The cohort consisted of 607 adult patients. Mean age was 76 years, 12% of patients died (71/607) and 9% required ICU care (55/607). None of the scores examined demonstrated good discriminatory ability (AUC>or=0.80). The Pneumonia Severity Index (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.72-0.83) and the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score (AUC 0.77, 95% 0.71-0.83) demonstrated fair predictive ability (AUC>or=0.70) for in-hospital mortality. The best predictor of ICU admission was SMART-COP (AUC 0.73, 95% CI 0.67-0.79). All other scores were poor predictors (AUC <0.70) of either outcome. If patients classified as low risk for in-hospital mortality using the PSI were discharged, 35% of admissions would have been avoided. None of the scores studied were good predictors of in-hospital mortality or ICU admission. The PSI and MEDS score were fair predictors of death and if these results are validated, their use could reduce influenza admission rates significantly.
Siddiqui, Shahla; Chua, Maureen; Kumaresh, Venkatesan; Choo, Robin
The 2015 sepsis definitions suggest using the quick SOFA score for risk stratification of sepsis patients among other changes in sepsis definition. Our aim was to validate the q sofa score for diagnosing sepsis and comparing it to traditional scores of pre ICU admission sepsis outcome prediction such as EWS and SIRS in our setting in order to predict mortality and length of stay. This was a retrospective cohort study. We retrospectively calculated the q sofa, SIRS and EWS scores of all ICU patients admitted with the diagnosis of sepsis at our center in 2015. This was analysed using STATA 12. Logistic regression and ROC curves were used for analysis in addition to descriptive analysis. 58 patients were included in the study. Based on our one year results we have shown that although q SOFA is more sensitive in predicting LOS in ICU of sepsis patients, the EWS score is more sensitive and specific in predicting mortality in the ICU of such patients when compared to q SOFA and SIRS scores. In conclusion, we find that in our setting, EWS is better than SIRS and q SOFA for predicting mortality and perhaps length of stay as well. The q Sofa score remains validated for diagnosis of sepsis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Fisher, William P; Burton, Elizabeth C
This study employs existing data sources to develop a new measure of intensive care unit (ICU) admission risk for heart failure patients. Outcome measures were constructed from laboratory, accounting, and medical record data for 973 adult inpatients with primary or secondary heart failure. Several scoring interpretations of the laboratory indicators were evaluated relative to their measurement and predictive properties. Cases were restricted to tests within first lab draw that included at least 15 indicators. After optimizing the original clinical observations, a satisfactory heart failure severity scale was calibrated on a 0-1000 continuum. Patients with unadjusted CHF severity measures of 550 or less were 2.7 times more likely to be admitted to the ICU than those with higher measures. Patients with low HF severity measures (550 or less) adjusted for demographic and diagnostic risk factors are about six times more likely to be admitted to the ICU than those with higher adjusted measures. A nomogram facilitates routine clinical application. Existing computerized data systems could be programmed to automatically structure clinical laboratory reports using the results of studies like this one to reduce data volume with no loss of information, make laboratory results more meaningful to clinical end users, improve the quality of care, reduce errors and unneeded tests, prevent unnecessary ICU admissions, lower costs, and improve patient satisfaction. Existing data typically examined piecemeal form a coherent scale measuring heart failure severity sensitive to increased likelihood of ICU admission. Marked improvements in ROC curves were found for the aggregate measures relative to individual clinical indicators.
To develop a regional ICU mortality prediction model during the first 24 h of ICU admission utilizing MODS and NEMS with six other independent variables from the Critical Care Information System (CCIS) Ontario, Canada.
Kao, Raymond; Priestap, Fran; Donner, Allan
Intensive care unit (ICU) scoring systems or prediction models evolved to meet the desire of clinical and administrative leaders to assess the quality of care provided by their ICUs. The Critical Care Information System (CCIS) is province-wide data information for all Ontario, Canada level 3 and level 2 ICUs collected for this purpose. With the dataset, we developed a multivariable logistic regression ICU mortality prediction model during the first 24 h of ICU admission utilizing the explanatory variables including the two validated scores, Multiple Organs Dysfunctional Score (MODS) and Nine Equivalents Nursing Manpower Use Score (NEMS) followed by the variables age, sex, readmission to the ICU during the same hospital stay, admission diagnosis, source of admission, and the modified Charlson Co-morbidity Index (CCI) collected through the hospital health records. This study is a single-center retrospective cohort review of 8822 records from the Critical Care Trauma Centre (CCTC) and Medical-Surgical Intensive Care Unit (MSICU) of London Health Sciences Centre (LHSC), Ontario, Canada between 1 Jan 2009 to 30 Nov 2012. Multivariable logistic regression on training dataset (n = 4321) was used to develop the model and validate by bootstrapping method on the testing dataset (n = 4501). Discrimination, calibration, and overall model performance were also assessed. The predictors significantly associated with ICU mortality included: age (p < 0.001), source of admission (p < 0.0001), ICU admitting diagnosis (p < 0.0001), MODS (p < 0.0001), and NEMS (p < 0.0001). The variables sex and modified CCI were not significantly associated with ICU mortality. The training dataset for the developed model has good discriminating ability between patients with high risk and those with low risk of mortality (c-statistic 0.787). The Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test has a strong correlation between the observed and expected ICU mortality (χ (2) = 5
Cigarroa, Claire L; van den Bosch, Sarah J; Tang, Xiaoqi; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Baird, Christopher W; DiNardo, James A; Kheir, John Nagi
Increased alveolar dead space fraction has been associated with prolonged mechanical ventilation and increased mortality in pediatric patients with respiratory failure. The association of alveolar dead space fraction with clinical outcomes in patients undergoing bidirectional cavopulmonary anastomosis for single ventricle congenital heart disease has not been reported. We describe an association of alveolar dead space fraction with postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing bidirectional cavopulmonary anastomosis. In a retrospective case-control study, we examined for associations between alveolar dead space fraction ([PaCO2 - end-tidal CO2]/PaCO2), arterial oxyhemoglobin saturation, and transpulmonary gradient upon postoperative ICU admission with a composite primary outcome (requirement for surgical or catheter-based intervention, death, or transplant prior to hospital discharge, defining cases) and several secondary endpoints in infants following bidirectional cavopulmonary anastomosis. Cardiac ICU in a tertiary care pediatric hospital. Patients undergoing bidirectional cavopulmonary anastomosis at our institution between 2011 and 2016. None. Of 191 patients undergoing bidirectional cavopulmonary anastomosis, 28 patients were cases and 163 were controls. Alveolar dead space fraction was significantly higher in the case (0.26 ± 0.09) versus control group (0.17 ± 0.09; p < 0.001); alveolar dead space fraction at admission was less than 0.12 in 0% of cases and was greater than 0.28 in 35% of cases. Admission arterial oxyhemoglobin saturation was significantly lower in the case (77% ± 12%) versus control group (83% ± 9%; p < 0.05). Sensitivity and specificity for future case versus control assignment was best when prebidirectional cavopulmonary anastomosis risk factors, admission alveolar dead space fraction (AUC, 0.74), and arterial oxyhemoglobin saturation (AUC, 0.65) were combined in a summarial model (AUC, 0.83). For a given arterial oxyhemoglobin
Gajic, Ognjen; Morales, Ian J.; Keegan, Mark T.; Peters, Steve G.; Hubmayr, Rolf D.
Background: No previous study has evaluated the association between admission to ICUs during round time and patient outcome. The objective of this study was to determine the association between round-time ICU admission and patient outcome. Methods: This retrospective study included 49,844 patients admitted from October 1994 to December 2007 to four ICUs (two surgical, one medical, and one multispecialty) of an academic medical center. Of these patients, 3,580 were admitted to the ICU during round time (8:00 am to 10:59 am) and 46,264 were admitted during nonround time (from 1:00 pm to 6:00 am). The medical ICU had 24-h/7-day per week intensivist coverage during the last 2 years of the study. We compared the baseline characteristics and outcome of patients admitted to the ICU between the two groups. Data were abstracted from the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) III database. Results: The round-time and non-round-groups were similar in gender, ethnicity, and age. The predicted hospital mortality rate of the round time group was higher (17.4% vs 12.3% predicted, respectively; p < 0.001). The hospital length of stay was similar between the two groups. The round-time group had a higher hospital mortality rate (16.2% vs 8.8%, respectively; p < 0.001). Most of the round-time ICU admissions and deaths occurred in the medical ICU. Round-time admission was an independent risk factor for hospital death (odds ratio, 1.321; 95% CI, 1.178 to 1.481). This independent association was present for the whole study period except for the last 2 years. Conclusions: Patients admitted to the ICU during morning rounds have higher severity of illness and mortality rates. PMID:19505985
Vlayen, Annemie; Verelst, Sandra; Bekkering, Geertruida E; Schrooten, Ward; Hellings, Johan; Claes, Nerée
Adverse events are unintended patient injuries or complications that arise from healthcare management resulting in death, disability or prolonged hospital stay. Adverse events that require critical care are a considerable financial burden to the healthcare system. Medical record review seems to be a reliable method for detecting adverse events. To synthesize the best available evidence regarding the estimates of the incidence and preventability of adverse events that necessitate intensive care admission; to determine the type and consequences (patient harm, mortality, length of ICU stay and direct medical costs) of these adverse events. MEDLINE (from 1966 to present), EMBASE (from 1974 to present) and CENTRAL (version 1-2010) were searched for studies reporting on unplanned admissions to intensive care units (ICUs). Databases of reports, conference proceedings, grey literature, ongoing research, relevant patient safety organizations and two journals were searched for additional studies. Reference lists of retrieved papers were searched and authors were contacted in an attempt to find any further published or unpublished work. Only quantitative studies that used chart review for the detection of adverse events requiring intensive care admission were considered for eligibility. Studies that were published in the English, Dutch, German, French or Spanish language were included. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed the methodological quality of the included studies. 28 studies in the English language and one study in French were included. Of these, two were considered duplicate publications and therefore 27 studies were reviewed. Meta-analysis of the data was not appropriate due to statistical heterogeneity between studies; therefore, results are presented in a descriptive way. Studies were categorized according to the population and the providers of care. 1) The majority of the included studies investigated unplanned intensive care admissions after
Lecuyer, Lucien; Chevret, Sylvie; Thiery, Guillaume; Darmon, Michael; Schlemmer, Benoît; Azoulay, Elie
Cancer patients requiring mechanical ventilation are widely viewed as poor candidates for intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We designed a prospective study evaluating a new admission policy titled The ICU Trial. Prospective study. Intensive care unit. One hundred eighty-eight patients requiring mechanical ventilation and having at least one other organ failure. Over a 3-yr period, all patients with hematologic malignancies or solid tumors proposed for ICU admission underwent a triage procedure. Bedridden patients and patients in whom palliative care was the only cancer treatment option were not admitted to the ICU. Patients at earliest phase of the malignancy (diagnosis < 30 days) were admitted without any restriction. All other patients were prospectively included in The ICU Trial, consisting of a full-code ICU admission followed by reappraisal of the level of care on day 5. Among the 188 patients, 103 survived the first 4 ICU days and 85 died from the acute illness. Hospital survival was 21.8% overall. Among the 103 survivors on day 5, none of the characteristics of the malignancy were significantly different between the 62 patients who died and the 41 who survived. Time course of organ dysfunction over the first 6 ICU days differed significantly between survivors and nonsurvivors. Organ failure scores were more accurate on day 6 than at admission or on day 3 for predicting survival. All patients who required initiation of mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, or dialysis after 3 days in the ICU died. Survival was 40% in mechanically ventilated cancer patients who survived to day 5 and 21.8% overall. If these results are confirmed in future interventional studies, we recommend ICU admission with full-code management followed by reappraisal on day 6 in all nonbedridden cancer patients for whom lifespan-extending cancer treatment is available.
Chan, Yik-Kei; Wong, Rity Yk; Ip, Margaret; Lee, Nelson Ls; You, Joyce Hs
To describe direct medical costs of influenza in hospitalized elderly, with and without intensive care unit (ICU) admission, during the 2014-2015 season in Hong Kong. A retrospective study was conducted in 110 inpatients aged ≥65 years with laboratory-confirmed influenza treated by antiviral therapy during season 2014-2015 in a tertiary hospital. Resource utilization of influenza-related diagnostic and laboratory tests, medications for influenza treatment, usage of general medical ward and ICU during the influenza-related length of hospital stay (IR-LOS) were collected. There were 18 (16.4%) and 92 (83.4%) cases with and without ICU admission, respectively. The difference in influenza-related mortality rates between patients with (11.1%) and without ICU admission (2.2%) was not statistically significant (P=0.064). Patients with ICU admission reported longer IR-LOS (12.7 ±6.0 days versus 5.5 ±2.7 days; P<0.001) and higher direct costs (36,588 USD ±21,482 versus 5,773 USD ±2,017; P<0.001; 1 USD=7.8 HKD). Male gender (OR=14.50; 95% CI 1.68, 125.07) and respiratory complications (OR=9.61; 95% CI 1.90, 48.50) were positive predictors of ICU admission. Age ≥70 years (OR=0.09; 95% CI 0.02, 0.46) and antiviral therapy initiation within 7 days (OR=0.05; 95% CI 0.003, 0.79) were negative predictors of ICU admission. Influenza B was a positive predictor of high-cost hospitalization in non-ICU survivors (OR=7.33; 95% CI 1.24, 43.29). No predictor of mortality was identified. Hospitalization cost in elderly for seasonal influenza was substantial in Hong Kong. The cost in patients with ICU admission was significantly higher than those without ICU care. Respiratory complications and male gender predicted ICU admission. Influenza B infection predicted high-cost hospitalization in non-ICU survivors.
Peleg, Kobi; Rozenfeld, Michael; Dolev, Eran
Trauma casualties caused by terror-related events and children injured as a result of trauma may be given preference in hospital emergency departments (EDs) due to their perceived importance. We investigated whether there are differences in the treatment and hospitalization of terror-related casualties compared to other types of injury events and between children and adults injured in terror-related events. Retrospective study of 121 608 trauma patients from the Israel Trauma Registry during the period of October 2000-December 2005. Of the 10 hospitals included in the registry, 6 were level I trauma centers and 4 were regional trauma centers. Patients who were hospitalized or died in the ED or were transferred between hospitals were included in the registry. All analyses were controlled for Injury Severity Score (ISS). All patients with ISS 1-24 terror casualties had the highest frequency of intensive care unit (ICU) admissions when compared with patients after road traffic accidents (RTA) and other trauma. Among patients with terror-related casualties, children were admitted to ICU disproportionally to the severity of their injury. Logistic regression adjusted for injury severity and trauma type showed that both terror casualties and children have a higher probability of being admitted to the ICU. Injured children are admitted to ICU more often than other age groups. Also, terror-related casualties are more frequently admitted to the ICU compared to those from other types of injury events. These differences were not directly related to a higher proportion of severe injuries among the preferred groups.
Leroy, Olivier; Georges, Hugues; Devos, Patrick; Bitton, Steve; De Sa, Nathalie; Dedrie, Céline; Beague, Sébastien; Ducq, Pierre; Boulle-Geronimi, Claire; Thellier, Damien; Saulnier, Fabienne; Preau, Sebastien
Very few studies focused on patients with severe infective endocarditis (IE) and multiple complications leading to Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission. Studied primary outcomes depended on the series and multiple prognostic factors have been identified. Our goal was to determinate characteristics of patients, in-hospital mortality and independent prognostic factors in an overall population of patients admitted to ICU for a left-sided, definite, active and severe IE. Retrospective study performed in 9 ICUs during an 11-year period. Data of 248 patients (mean age = 62.4 ± 13.3 years; 63.7 % male) were studied. Native and prosthetic valves were involved in 195 and 53 patients, respectively. Causative pathogens, identified in 225 patients, were mainly streptococci (45.6 %) and staphylococci (43.4 %). On ICU admission, 127 patients exhibited extra-cardiac involvement. Ninety-five patients had one or more neurological complications, as followed: ischemic stroke (n = 66), cerebral hemorrhage (n = 31), meningitis (n = 16), brain abscess (n = 16), and intracranial mycotic aneurysm (n = 10). Criteria prompting to cardiac surgery appeared during ICU stay for 186 patients and between ICU and hospital discharges in 5 patients. Due to contra-indications, surgery required by IE was only performed during hospitalization in 125 patients. Moreover, surgery was considered adequate according to usual guidelines in 76 of 191 patients with indication(s) of valvular surgery: for patients with surgical procedure considered as emergency (n = 69), 17 surgical procedures underwent within the first 24 h following indication; for patients with urgent surgical indication (n = 102), surgery was performed during the first week following indication in 40 patients; finally, elective surgery (n = 20) was performed for 19 patients. During hospitalization, 103 (41.5 %) patients died. Four independent prognostic factors were identified: SAPS II > 35 (AOR = 2.604; 95 % CI
Holguin, Fernando; Ramadan, Bassel; Gal, Anthony A.; Roman, Jesse
Background The objective of this study was to evaluate the factors predictive of 28-day mortality and admission to Intensive Care Unit (ICU) in patients with ANCA-related pulmonary vasculitis. Methods We reviewed the medical records and imaging studies of 65 patients diagnosed with ANCA-related vasculitis hospitalized with pulmonary complications between February 1985 and November 2002. All patients underwent open or video-assisted thoracoscopic lung biopsy, had a positive ANCA serology, and were negative for glomerular basement membrane antibodies. Results At presentation, 72% had dyspnea, 68% fever, 47% cough, 45% elevated blood pressure, 32.3% hemoptysis, 26.1% sinus involvement, 15% renal failure, and 4.6% scleritis. Pathological findings included alveolar hemorrhage (60%), granulomatous inflammation (46%), and capillaritis (38%). A significant number required mechanical ventilation (27.7%), hemodialysis (24.6%), continuous renal replacement therapy (3.1%), and plasmapheresis (3.1%). The 28-day mortality was 16.9% (11/65). Mechanical ventilation (OR 68, P < 0.005), admission to ICU (OR 18.5, P < 0.01), and blood transfusion (OR 22.4, P < 0.004) were strong predictors of increased mortality within 28 days after admission. Respiratory failure (OR 31, P < 0.0007), hemoptysis (OR 2.9, P < 0.06), smoking (OR 5.9, P < 0.02), and acute renal failure (OR 7.8, P < 0.01) were also predictors for admission to the ICU. Conclusion In patients with ANCA-related pulmonary vasculitis several clinical factors, but not pathologic findings or ANCA titers, are associated with ICU admission and/or 28-day mortality. PMID:18854674
Bangert, K; Borch, J; Ferahli, S; Braune, S A; de Heer, G; Kluge, S
Intensive care medicine (ICM) is increasingly utilized by a growing number of critically ill patients worldwide. The reasons for this are an increasingly ageing and multimorbid population and technological improvements in ICM. Inappropriate patient admissions to the intensive care unit (ICU) can be a threat to rational resource allocation and to patient autonomy. In this study, the incidence, characteristics, and resource utilization of patients inappropriately admitted to ICUs are studied. This prospective study included all consecutive patients admitted from 01 September 2012 to 31 August 2013 to the Department of Intensive Care Medicine of a German university hospital comprised of 10 ICUs and 120 beds. Inappropriate admission was defined according to category 4B of the recommendations of the Society of Critical Care Medicine (SCCM; "futility of ICU treatment" or "ICU declined by patient") and was determined in each suspected case by structured group discussions between the study team and all involved care givers including the referring team. In all, 66 of 6452 ICU admissions (1 %) were suspected to have been inappropriate on retrospective evaluation the day after admission. In 50 patients (0.8 %), an interdisciplinary consensus was reached on the inappropriateness of the ICU admission. Of these 50 patients, 41 (82 %) had previously declined ICU treatment in principle. This information was based on the patient's presumed wish as expressed by next of kin (56 %) or in a written advanced directive (26 %). In 9 patients (18 %), ICU treatment was considered futile. In all cases, a lack of information regarding a patient's wishes or clinical prognosis was the reason for inappropriate ICU admission. In this study, patients were regularly admitted to the ICU despite their contrary wish/directive or an unfavorable clinical condition. Although this was registered in only 1 % of all admissions, optimizing preICU admission information flow with regard to
Champunot, Ratapum; Thawitsri, Thammasak; Kamsawang, Nataya; Sirichote, Visanu; Nopmaneejumruslers, Cherdchai
To assess the cost effectiveness of an initial ICU admissionforpatients with severe sepsis or those in septic shock following the initial resuscitation in the emergency department. Mortality data was generated through retrospective data obtained from 1,048 adult patients with severe sepsis or in septic shock from one tertiary care and eight community hospitals in Phitsanulok during the period of October 2010 to September 2011. These patients were categorized into two groups; as either admitted from the emergency department directly to the ICU (stated as an immediate ICU admission) or admitted from the emergency department to the general hospital ward due to an unavailability of lCU beds (stated as a delayed ICU admission). The overall direct costs and characteristics were simulated from a second group of 994 adult patients, admitted a year later from selected data by the ICD-10 codes [International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition] with the same conditions of severe sepsis and septic shock (September 2011 through September 2012), as there was no collection of costs and characteristics during the first period (October 2010 through September 2011). A decision tree model and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were used for the analyses of the cost-effectiveness. There were no significant differences in either the mean ages or lengths of stay between both groups. All-cause mortality rates have shown an incidence of 22.2% for the immediate ICU admission group and an incidence of 46.3% in the delayed ICUadmission group (odds ratio for the immediate ICU admission group was 0. 479 with a 95% confidence interval, 0.376-0.611). Total costs (mean, 95% CI) of the immediate ICUadmission group [37,194 baht (32,389-44,926)] were higher than had been seen in the delayed ICU admission group [26,275 (24,300-27,936)]. Incremental cost was 10,919 baht. ICER for the immediate ICU admission group was 45,307 baht per life saved. Immediate ICU admission for patients
Mathews, Kusum S; Durst, Matthew S; Vargas-Torres, Carmen; Olson, Ashley D; Mazumdar, Madhu; Richardson, Lynne D
ICU admission delays can negatively affect patient outcomes, but emergency department volume and boarding times may also affect these decisions and associated patient outcomes. We sought to investigate the effect of emergency department and ICU capacity strain on ICU admission decisions and to examine the effect of emergency department boarding time of critically ill patients on in-hospital mortality. A retrospective cohort study. Single academic tertiary care hospital. Adult critically ill emergency department patients for whom a consult for medical ICU admission was requested, over a 21-month period. None. Patient data, including severity of illness (Mortality Probability Model III on Admission), outcomes of mortality and persistent organ dysfunction, and hourly census reports for the emergency department, for all ICUs and all adult wards were compiled. A total of 854 emergency department requests for ICU admission were logged, with 455 (53.3%) as "accept" and 399 (46.7%) as "deny" cases, with median emergency department boarding times 4.2 hours (interquartile range, 2.8-6.3 hr) and 11.7 hours (3.2-20.3 hr) and similar rates of persistent organ dysfunction and/or death 41.5% and 44.6%, respectively. Those accepted were younger (mean ± SD, 61 ± 17 vs 65 ± 18 yr) and more severely ill (median Mortality Probability Model III on Admission score, 15.3% [7.0-29.5%] vs 13.4% [6.3-25.2%]) than those denied admission. In the multivariable model, a full medical ICU was the only hospital-level factor significantly associated with a lower probability of ICU acceptance (odds ratio, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.37-0.81]). Using propensity score analysis to account for imbalances in baseline characteristics between those accepted or denied for ICU admission, longer emergency department boarding time after consult was associated with higher odds of mortality and persistent organ dysfunction (odds ratio, 1.77 [1.07-2.95]/log10 hour increase). ICU admission decisions for
Paton, Lia; Elliott, Sara; Chohan, Sanjiv
The PREdiction of DELIRium for Intensive Care (PRE-DELIRIC) model reliably predicts at 24 h the development of delirium during intensive care admission. However, the model does not take account of alcohol misuse, which has a high prevalence in Scottish intensive care patients. We used the PRE-DELIRIC model to calculate the risk of delirium for patients in our ICU from May to July 2013. These patients were screened for delirium on each day of their ICU stay using the Confusion Assessment Method for ICU (CAM-ICU). Outcomes were ascertained from the national ICU database. In the 39 patients screened daily, the risk of delirium given by the PRE-DELIRIC model was positively associated with prevalence of delirium, length of ICU stay and mortality. The PRE-DELIRIC model can therefore be usefully applied to a Scottish cohort with a high prevalence of substance misuse, allowing preventive measures to be targeted.
Che, Zhengping; Purushotham, Sanjay; Khemani, Robinder; Liu, Yan
Exponential surge in health care data, such as longitudinal data from electronic health records (EHR), sensor data from intensive care unit (ICU), etc., is providing new opportunities to discover meaningful data-driven characteristics and patterns ofdiseases. Recently, deep learning models have been employedfor many computational phenotyping and healthcare prediction tasks to achieve state-of-the-art performance. However, deep models lack interpretability which is crucial for wide adoption in medical research and clinical decision-making. In this paper, we introduce a simple yet powerful knowledge-distillation approach called interpretable mimic learning, which uses gradient boosting trees to learn interpretable models and at the same time achieves strong prediction performance as deep learning models. Experiment results on Pediatric ICU dataset for acute lung injury (ALI) show that our proposed method not only outperforms state-of-the-art approaches for morality and ventilator free days prediction tasks but can also provide interpretable models to clinicians. PMID:28269832
Storms, Aaron D; Chen, Jufu; Jackson, Lisa A; Nordin, James D; Naleway, Allison L; Glanz, Jason M; Jacobsen, Steven J; Weintraub, Eric S; Klein, Nicola P; Gargiullo, Paul M; Fry, Alicia M
Pneumonia poses a significant burden to the U.S. health-care system. However, there are few data focusing on severe pneumonia, particularly cases of pneumonia associated with specialized care in intensive care units (ICU). We used administrative and electronic medical record data from six integrated health care systems to estimate rates of pneumonia hospitalizations with ICU admissions among adults during 2006 through 2010. Pneumonia hospitalization was defined as either a primary discharge diagnosis of pneumonia or a primary discharge diagnosis of sepsis or respiratory failure with a secondary diagnosis of pneumonia in administrative data. ICU admissions were collected from internal electronic medical records from each system. Comorbidities were identified by ICD-9-CM codes coded during the current pneumonia hospitalization, as well as during medical visits that occurred during the year prior to the date of admission. We identified 119,537 adult hospitalizations meeting our definition for pneumonia. Approximately 19% of adult pneumonia hospitalizations had an ICU admission. The rate of pneumonia hospitalizations requiring ICU admission during the study period was 76 per 100,000 population/year; rates increased for each age-group with the highest rates among adults aged ≥85 years. Having a co-morbidity approximately doubled the risk of ICU admission in all age-groups. Our study indicates a significant burden of pneumonia hospitalizations with an ICU admission among adults in our cohort during 2006 through 2010, especially older age-groups and persons with underlying medical conditions. These findings reinforce current strategies aimed to prevent pneumonia among adults.
Nasa, Prashant; Juneja, Deven; Singh, Omender; Dang, Rohit; Arora, Vikas; Saxena, Sanjay
Blood culture is routinely taken at the time of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) for patients suspected to have infection. We undertook this study to determine the incidence of bacteremia at the time of ICU admission and to assess its impact on the outcome. Retrospective cohort study from all the admissions in ICU, in whom blood cultures sent at the time of admission were analyzed. Data regarding patient demographics, probable source of infection, previous antibiotic use and ICU course was recorded. Severity of illness on admission was assessed by acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score. Qualitative data were analyzed using Chi-square or Fisher Exact test and quantitative data were analyzed using Student's t-test. Primary outcome measure was ICU mortality. Of 567 patients, 42% patients were on antibiotics. Sixty-four percent of the patients were direct ICU admission from casualty, 10.76% were from wards and 6.17% from other ICUs, and 19.05% were transfers from other hospitals. Blood cultures were positive in 10.6% patients. Mortality was significantly higher in patients with positive blood cultures (45% vs. 13.6%; P=0.000). On univariate analysis, only previous antibiotic use was statistically associated with higher mortality (P=0.011). Bacteremic patients who were already on antibiotics had a significantly higher mortality (OR 12.9, 95% CI: 1.6-100). Blood cultures may be positive in only minority of the patients with suspected infection admitted to ICU. Nevertheless, the prognosis of those patients with positive blood culture is worse, especially if culture is positive in spite of the patient being on antibiotics.
Nasa, Prashant; Juneja, Deven; Singh, Omender; Dang, Rohit; Arora, Vikas; Saxena, Sanjay
Context: Blood culture is routinely taken at the time of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) for patients suspected to have infection. We undertook this study to determine the incidence of bacteremia at the time of ICU admission and to assess its impact on the outcome. Methods: Retrospective cohort study from all the admissions in ICU, in whom blood cultures sent at the time of admission were analyzed. Data regarding patient demographics, probable source of infection, previous antibiotic use and ICU course was recorded. Severity of illness on admission was assessed by acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score. Statistical Analysis: Qualitative data were analyzed using Chi-square or Fisher Exact test and quantitative data were analyzed using Student's t-test. Primary outcome measure was ICU mortality. Results: Of 567 patients, 42% patients were on antibiotics. Sixty-four percent of the patients were direct ICU admission from casualty, 10.76% were from wards and 6.17% from other ICUs, and 19.05% were transfers from other hospitals. Blood cultures were positive in 10.6% patients. Mortality was significantly higher in patients with positive blood cultures (45% vs. 13.6%; P=0.000). On univariate analysis, only previous antibiotic use was statistically associated with higher mortality (P=0.011). Bacteremic patients who were already on antibiotics had a significantly higher mortality (OR 12.9, 95% CI: 1.6–100). Conclusions: Blood cultures may be positive in only minority of the patients with suspected infection admitted to ICU. Nevertheless, the prognosis of those patients with positive blood culture is worse, especially if culture is positive in spite of the patient being on antibiotics. PMID:22223904
Sobol, Julia B.; Gershengorn, ayley B.; Wunsch, Hannah; Li, Guohua
Background Understanding intensive care unit (ICU) triage decisions for high-risk surgical patients may ultimately facilitate resource allocation and improve outcomes. The surgical Apgar score (SAS) is a simple score that uses intraoperative information on hemodynamics and blood loss to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality, with lower scores associated with worse outcomes. We hypothesized that the SAS would be associated with the decision to admit a patient to the ICU postoperatively. Methods Retrospective cohort study of adults undergoing major intra-abdominal surgery from 2003 to 2010 at an academic medical center. We calculated the SAS (0 – 10) for each patient based on intraoperative heart rate, mean arterial pressure, and estimated blood loss. Using logistic regression, we assessed the association of the SAS with the decision to admit a patient directly to the ICU after surgery. Results The cohort consisted of 8,501 patients, with 72.7% having a SAS of 7-10 and less than 5% a SAS of 0-4. A total of 8.7% of patients were transferred immediately to the ICU postoperatively. After multivariate adjustment, there was a strong association between the SAS and the decision to admit a patient to the ICU (adjusted odds ratio 14.41 [95% CI 6.88 – 30.19, P < 0.001] for SAS 0-2, 4.42 [95% CI 3.19 – 6.13, P <0.001] for SAS 3-4, and 2.60 [95% CI 2.08 – 3.24, P < 0.001] for SAS 5-6 compared with SAS 7-8). Conclusions The SAS is strongly associated with clinical decisions regarding immediate ICU admission after high-risk intra-abdominal surgery. These results provide an initial step towards understanding whether intraoperative hemodynamics and blood loss influence ICU triage for post-surgical patients. PMID:23744956
Mortensen, Eric M.; Rello, Jordi; Brody, Jennifer; Anzueto, Antonio
Background: Limited data are available on the impact of time to ICU admission and outcomes for patients with severe community acquired pneumonia (CAP). Our objective was to examine the association of time to ICU admission and 30-day mortality in patients with severe CAP. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 161 ICU subjects with CAP (by International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition, codes) was conducted over a 3-year period at two tertiary teaching hospitals. Timing of the ICU admission was dichotomized into early ICU admission (EICUA, direct admission or within 24 h) and late ICU admission (LICUA, ≥ day 2). A multivariable analysis using Cox proportional hazard model was created with the primary outcome of 30-day mortality (dependent measure) and the American Thoracic Society (ATS) severity adjustment criteria and time to ICU admission as the independent measures. Results: Eighty-eight percent (n = 142) were EICUA patients compared with 12% (n = 19) LICUA patients. Groups were similar with respect to age, gender, comorbidities, clinical parameters, CAP-related process of care measures, and need for mechanical ventilation. LICUA patients had lower rates of ATS severity criteria at presentation (26.3% vs 53.5%; P = .03). LICUA patients (47.4%) had a higher 30-day mortality compared with EICUA (23.2%) patients (P = .02), which remained after adjusting in the multivariable analysis (hazard ratio 2.6; 95% CI, 1.2-5.5; P = .02). Conclusion: Patients with severe CAP with a late ICU admission have increased 30-day mortality after adjustment for illness severity. Further research should evaluate the risk factors associated and their impact on clinical outcomes in patients admitted late to the ICU. PMID:19880910
Rovina, Nikoletta; Erifaki, Magdalini; Katsaounou, Paraskevi; Lyxi, Georgia; Koutsoukou, Antonia; Koulouris, Nikolaos G; Alchanatis, Manos
The 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus was accompanied by high morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics of patients with documented 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus admitted to a reference chest hospital, the disease outcome, and risk factors associated with ICU admission. We assessed 109 subjects admitted to the respiratory infection unit of a hospital for chest disease with signs and symptoms of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus between April 2009 and December 2010. Demographic data, comorbidities, clinical signs and symptoms, laboratory tests, radiographic findings, treatment, and final outcomes were all recorded. Factors associated with severe disease requiring ICU admission were determined. Ninety subjects (82.5%) had laboratory-confirmed 2009 influenza A (H1N1). Sixty-four percent of these subjects had pneumonia on admission, 26% had respiratory failure, and 11% required care in the ICU. Dyspnea and the presence of infiltrates on chest x-rays were the most common signs among the subjects with H1N1. All subjects were treated with antiviral therapy, and 75% received antibiotic treatment based on their clinical and laboratory findings. The predictive factors of ICU admission were severe hypoxemia and lymphocytosis. The outcome of subjects with influenza A (H1N1) virus infection was influenced by the severity of the disease on admission, the subjects' underlying conditions, and complications during hospitalization. Copyright © 2014 by Daedalus Enterprises.
Nemati, Shamim; Holder, Andre; Razmi, Fereshteh; Stanley, Matthew D; Clifford, Gari D; Buchman, Timothy G
Sepsis is among the leading causes of morbidity, mortality, and cost overruns in critically ill patients. Early intervention with antibiotics improves survival in septic patients. However, no clinically validated system exists for real-time prediction of sepsis onset. We aimed to develop and validate an Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert algorithm for early prediction of sepsis. Observational cohort study. Academic medical center from January 2013 to December 2015. Over 31,000 admissions to the ICUs at two Emory University hospitals (development cohort), in addition to over 52,000 ICU patients from the publicly available Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III ICU database (validation cohort). Patients who met the Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis (Sepsis-3) prior to or within 4 hours of their ICU admission were excluded, resulting in roughly 27,000 and 42,000 patients within our development and validation cohorts, respectively. None. High-resolution vital signs time series and electronic medical record data were extracted. A set of 65 features (variables) were calculated on hourly basis and passed to the Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert algorithm to predict onset of sepsis in the proceeding T hours (where T = 12, 8, 6, or 4). Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert was used to predict onset of sepsis in the proceeding T hours and to produce a list of the most significant contributing factors. For the 12-, 8-, 6-, and 4-hour ahead prediction of sepsis, Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert achieved area under the receiver operating characteristic in the range of 0.83-0.85. Performance of the Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert on the development and validation cohorts was indistinguishable. Using data available in the ICU in real-time, Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert can accurately predict the onset of sepsis in an ICU patient 4-12 hours prior to clinical recognition. A prospective study is necessary to determine the
Juncal, Verena Ribeiro; Britto Neto, Lelivaldo Antonio de; Camelier, Aquiles Assunção; Messeder, Octavio Henrique Coelho; Farias, Augusto Manoel de Carvalho
To describe the clinical characteristics, laboratory data, and clinical outcomes of patients with and without sepsis admitted to the ICU of a private hospital in the city of Salvador, Brazil, and to identify clinical variables related to a worse prognosis in those with sepsis. This was a longitudinal study including all patients admitted to the general ICU of the Hospital Português, in the city of Salvador, Brazil, between June of 2008 and March of 2009. At ICU admission, two groups of patients were identified: with sepsis and without sepsis. Epidemiological, clinical and laboratory data were collected, and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score was calculated. Of the 144 patients in the study, 29 (20.1%) had sepsis. Among the patients with sepsis, males accounted for 55.2%, the mean age was 73.1 ± 14.6 years, and the mean APACHE II score was 23.8 ± 9.1, compared with 36.3%, 68.7 ± 17.7 years, and 18.4 ± 9.5, respectively, among those without sepsis. There were significant associations between a diagnosis of sepsis and the following variables: APACHE II score; in-hospital mortality; ICU mortality; HR; mean arterial pressure; hematocrit level; white blood cell count; and antibiotic use. The use of life support measures and lower hematocrit levels were associated with a worse prognosis in the patients with sepsis. The patients diagnosed with sepsis presented worse clinical outcomes, probably due to their greater severity. Hematocrit level was the only variable that was a predictor of mortality risk in the patients with sepsis.
Becker, R B; Zimmerman, J E
Too much time and effort are wasted in attempts to pass final judgment on whether systems for ICU prognostication are "good or bad" and whether they "do or do not" provide a simple answer to the complex and often unpredictable question of individual mortality in the ICU. A substantial amount of data supports the usefulness of general ICU prognostic systems in comparing ICU performance with respect to a wide variety of endpoints, including ICU and hospital mortality, duration of stay, and efficiency of resource use. Work in progress is analyzing both general resource use and specific therapeutic interventions. It also is time to fully acknowledge that statistics never can predict whether a patient will die with 100% accuracy. There always will be exceptions to the rule, and physicians frequently will have information that is not included in prognostic models. In addition, the values of both physicians and patients frequently lead to differences in how a probability in interpreted; for some, a 95% probability estimate means that death is near and, for others, this estimate represents a tangible 5% chance for survival. This means that physicians must learn how to integrate such estimates into their medical decisions. In doing so, it is our hope that prognostic systems are not viewed as oversimplifying or automating clinical decisions. Rather, such systems provide objective data on which physicians may ground a spectrum of decisions regarding either escalation or withdrawal of therapy in critically ill patients. These systems do not dehumanize our decision-making process but, rather, help eliminate physician reliance on emotional, heuristic, poorly calibrated, or overly pessimistic subjective estimates. No decision regarding patient care can be considered best if the facts upon which it is based on imprecise or biased. Future research will improve the accuracy of individual patient predictions but, even with the highest degree of precision, such predictions are useful
Yang, Muer; Fry, Michael J; Raikhelkar, Jayashree; Chin, Cynthia; Anyanwu, Anelechi; Brand, Jordan; Scurlock, Corey
To develop queuing and simulation-based models to understand the relationship between ICU bed availability and operating room schedule to maximize the use of critical care resources and minimize case cancellation while providing equity to patients and surgeons. Retrospective analysis of 6-month unit admission data from a cohort of cardiothoracic surgical patients, to create queuing and simulation-based models of ICU bed flow. Three different admission policies (current admission policy, shortest-processing-time policy, and a dynamic policy) were then analyzed using simulation models, representing 10 yr worth of potential admissions. Important output data consisted of the "average waiting time," a proxy for unit efficiency, and the "maximum waiting time," a surrogate for patient equity. A cardiothoracic surgical ICU in a tertiary center in New York, NY. Six hundred thirty consecutive cardiothoracic surgical patients admitted to the cardiothoracic surgical ICU. None. Although the shortest-processing-time admission policy performs best in terms of unit efficiency (0.4612 days), it did so at expense of patient equity prolonging surgical waiting time by as much as 21 days. The current policy gives the greatest equity but causes inefficiency in unit bed-flow (0.5033 days). The dynamic policy performs at a level (0.4997 days) 8.3% below that of the shortest-processing-time in average waiting time; however, it balances this with greater patient equity (maximum waiting time could be shortened by 4 days compared to the current policy). Queuing theory and computer simulation can be used to model case flow through a cardiothoracic operating room and ICU. A dynamic admission policy that looks at current waiting time and expected ICU length of stay allows for increased equity between patients with only minimum losses of efficiency. This dynamic admission policy would seem to be a superior in maximizing case-flow. These results may be generalized to other surgical ICUs.
Laserna, Elena; Sibila, Oriol; Aguilar, Patrick R.; Mortensen, Eric M.; Anzueto, Antonio; Blanquer, Jose M.; Sanz, Francisco; Rello, Jordi; Marcos, Pedro J.; Velez, Maria I.; Aziz, Nivin
Objective: The purpose of our study was to examine in patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) the association between abnormal Paco2 and ICU admission and 30-day mortality. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at two tertiary teaching hospitals. Eligible subjects were admitted with a diagnosis of CAP. Arterial blood gas analyses were obtained with measurement of Paco2 on admission. Multivariate analyses were performed using 30-day mortality and ICU admission as the dependent measures. Results: Data were abstracted on 453 subjects with a documented arterial blood gas analysis. One hundred eighty-nine patients (41%) had normal Paco2 (35-45 mm Hg), 194 patients (42%) had a Paco2 < 35 mm Hg (hypocapnic), and 70 patients (15%) had a Paco2 > 45 mm Hg (hypercapnic). In the multivariate analysis, after adjusting for severity of illness, hypocapnic patients had greater 30-day mortality (OR = 2.84; 95% CI, 1.28-6.30) and a higher need for ICU admission (OR = 2.88; 95% CI, 1.68-4.95) compared with patients with normal Paco2. In addition, hypercapnic patients had a greater 30-day mortality (OR = 3.38; 95% CI, 1.38-8.30) and a higher need for ICU admission (OR = 5.35; 95% CI, 2.80-10.23). When patients with COPD were excluded from the analysis, the differences persisted between groups. Conclusion: In hospitalized patients with CAP, both hypocapnia and hypercapnia were associated with an increased need for ICU admission and higher 30-day mortality. These findings persisted after excluding patients with CAP and with COPD. Therefore, Paco2 should be considered for inclusion in future severity stratification criteria to appropriate identified patients who will require a higher level of care and are at risk for increased mortality. PMID:22677348
To perform a serial assessment and compare ability in predicting the intensive care unit (ICU) mortality of the multiple organ dysfunction score (MODS), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and logistic organ dysfunction (LOD) score. The data were collected prospectively on consecutive ICU admissions over a 24-month period at a tertiary referral university hospital. The MODS, SOFA, and LOD scores were calculated on initial and repeated every 24 hrs. Two thousand fifty four patients were enrolled in the present study. The maximum and delta-scores of all the organ dysfunction scores correlated with ICU mortality. The maximum score of all models had better ability for predicting ICU mortality than initial or delta score. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for maximum scores was 0.892 for the MODS, 0.907 for the SOFA, and 0.92for the LOD. No statistical difference existed between all maximum scores and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score. Serial assessment of organ dysfunction during the ICU stay is reliable with ICU mortality. The maximum scores is the best discrimination comparable with APACHE II score in predicting ICU mortality.
Dahn, Cassidy M; Manasco, A Travis; Breaud, Alan H; Kim, Samuel; Rumas, Natalia; Moin, Omer; Mitchell, Patricia M; Nelson, Kerrie P; Baker, William; Feldman, James A
Unplanned intensive care unit (ICU) transfer (UIT) within 48 hours of emergency department (ED) admission increases morbidity and mortality. We hypothesized that a majority of UITs do not have critical interventions (CrIs) and that CrI is associated with worse outcomes. The objective of the study is to characterize all UITs (including patients who died before ICU transfer), the proportion with CrI, and the effect of having CrI on mortality. This is a single-center, retrospective cohort study of UITs within 48 hours from 2008 to 2013 at an urban academic medical center and included patients 18 years or older without advanced directives (ADs). Critical intervention was defined by modified Delphi process. Data included demographics, comorbidities, reasons for UIT, length of stay, CrIs, and mortality. We calculated descriptive statistics with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 837 (0.76%) of 108 732 floor admissions from the ED had a UIT within 48 hours; 86 admitted patients died before ICU. We excluded 23 ADs, 117 postoperative transfers, 177 planned ICU transfers, and 4 with missing data. Of the 516 remaining, 65% (95% CI, 61%-69%) received a CrI. Unplanned ICU transfer reasons are as follows: 33 medical errors, 90 disease processes not present on arrival, and 393 clinical deteriorations. Mortality was 10.5% (95% CI, 8%-14%), and mean length of stay was 258 hours (95% CI, 233-283) for those with CrI, whereas the mortality was 2.8% (95% CI, 1%-6%) and mean length of stay was 177 hours (95% CI, 157-197) for those without CrI. Unplanned ICU transfer is rare, and only 65% had a CrI. Those with CrI had increased morbidity and mortality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Nates, Joseph L; Nunnally, Mark; Kleinpell, Ruth; Blosser, Sandralee; Goldner, Jonathan; Birriel, Barbara; Fowler, Clara S; Byrum, Diane; Miles, William Scherer; Bailey, Heatherlee; Sprung, Charles L
To update the Society of Critical Care Medicine's guidelines for ICU admission, discharge, and triage, providing a framework for clinical practice, the development of institutional policies, and further research. An appointed Task Force followed a standard, systematic, and evidence-based approach in reviewing the literature to develop these guidelines. The assessment of the evidence and recommendations was based on the principles of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation system. The general subject was addressed in sections: admission criteria and benefits of different levels of care, triage, discharge timing and strategies, use of outreach programs to supplement ICU care, quality assurance/improvement and metrics, nonbeneficial treatment in the ICU, and rationing considerations. The literature searches yielded 2,404 articles published from January 1998 to October 2013 for review. Following the appraisal of the literature, discussion, and consensus, recommendations were written. Although these are administrative guidelines, the subjects addressed encompass complex ethical and medico-legal aspects of patient care that affect daily clinical practice. A limited amount of high-quality evidence made it difficult to answer all the questions asked related to ICU admission, discharge, and triage. Despite these limitations, the members of the Task Force believe that these recommendations provide a comprehensive framework to guide practitioners in making informed decisions during the admission, discharge, and triage process as well as in resolving issues of nonbeneficial treatment and rationing. We need to further develop preventive strategies to reduce the burden of critical illness, educate our noncritical care colleagues about these interventions, and improve our outreach, developing early identification and intervention systems.
Liao, Wen-I; Wang, Jen-Chun; Chang, Wei-Chou; Hsu, Chin-Wang; Chu, Chi-Ming; Tsai, Shih-Hung
Stress-induced hyperglycemia (SIH) has been independently associated with an increased risk of mortality in critically ill patients without diabetes. However, it is also necessary to consider preexisting hyperglycemia when investigating the relationship between SIH and mortality in patients with diabetes. We therefore assessed whether the gap between admission glucose and A1C-derived average glucose (ADAG) levels could be a predictor of mortality in critically ill patients with diabetes.We retrospectively reviewed the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) scores and clinical outcomes of patients with diabetes admitted to our medical intensive care unit (ICU) between 2011 and 2014. The glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels were converted to the ADAG by the equation, ADAG = [(28.7 × HbA1c) - 46.7]. We also used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to determine the optimal cut-off value for the glycemic gap when predicting ICU mortality and used the net reclassification improvement (NRI) to measure the improvement in prediction performance gained by adding the glycemic gap to the APACHE-II score.We enrolled 518 patients, of which 87 (17.0%) died during their ICU stay. Nonsurvivors had significantly higher APACHE-II scores and glycemic gaps than survivors (P < 0.001). Critically ill patients with diabetes and a glycemic gap ≥80 mg/dL had significantly higher ICU mortality and adverse outcomes than those with a glycemic gap <80 mg/dL (P < 0.001). Incorporation of the glycemic gap into the APACHE-II score increased the discriminative performance for predicting ICU mortality by increasing the area under the ROC curve from 0.755 to 0.794 (NRI = 13.6%, P = 0.0013).The glycemic gap can be used to assess the severity and prognosis of critically ill patients with diabetes. The addition of the glycemic gap to the APACHE-II score significantly improved its ability to predict ICU mortality.
Mahmoodpoor, Ata; Hamishehkar, Hadi; Shadvar, Kamran; Beigmohammadi, Mohammadtaghi; Iranpour, Afshin; Sanaie, Sarvin
Background and Aims: The association between hyperglycemia and mortality is believed to be influenced by the presence of diabetes mellitus (DM). In this study, we evaluated the effect of preexisting hyperglycemia on the association between acute blood glucose management and mortality in critically ill patients. The primary objective of the study was the relationship between HbA1c and mortality in critically ill patients. Secondary objectives of the study were relationship between Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission blood glucose and glucose control during ICU stay with mortality in critically ill patients. Materials and Methods: Five hundred patients admitted to two ICUs were enrolled. Blood sugar and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) concentrations on ICU admission were measured. Age, sex, history of DM, comorbidities, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, sequential organ failure assessment score, hypoglycemic episodes, drug history, mortality, and development of acute kidney injury and liver failure were noted for all patients. Results: Without considering the history of diabetes, nonsurvivors had significantly higher HbA1c values compared to survivors (7.25 ± 1.87 vs. 6.05 ± 1.22, respectively, P < 0.001). Blood glucose levels in ICU admission showed a significant correlation with risk of death (P < 0.006, confidence interval [CI]: 1.004–1.02, relative risk [RR]: 1.01). Logistic regression analysis revealed that HbA1c increased the risk of death; with each increase in HbA1c level, the risk of death doubled. However, this relationship was not statistically significant (P: 0.161, CI: 0.933–1.58, RR: 1.2). Conclusions: Acute hyperglycemia significantly affects mortality in the critically ill patients; this relation is also influenced by chronic hyperglycemia. PMID:27076705
Douglas, Helen E; Ratcliffe, Andrew; Sandhu, Rajdeep; Anwar, Umair
Many different burns mortality prediction models exist; however most agree that important factors that can be weighted include the age of the patient, the total percentage of body surface area burned and the presence or absence of smoke inhalation. A retrospective review of all burns primarily admitted to Pinderfields Burns ICU under joint care of burns surgeons and intensivists for the past 3 years was completed. Predicted mortality was calculated using the revised Baux score (2010), the Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury score (2009) and the Boston group score by Ryan et al. (1998). Additionally 28 of the 48 patients had APACHE II scores recorded on admission and the predicted and actual mortality of this group were compared. The Belgian score had the highest sensitivity and negative predictive value (72%/85%); followed by the Boston score (66%/78%) and then the revised Baux score (53%/70%). APACHE II scores had higher sensitivity (81%) and NPV (92%) than any of the burns scores. In our group of burns ICU patients the Belgian model was the most sensitive and specific predictor of mortality. In our subgroup of patients with APACHE II data, this score more accurately predicted survival and mortality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.
Aguinis, Herman; Culpepper, Steven A.; Pierce, Charles A.
We introduce the concept of "differential prediction generalization" in the context of college admissions testing. Specifically, we assess the extent to which predicted first-year college grade point average (GPA) based on high-school grade point average (HSGPA) and SAT scores depends on a student's ethnicity and gender and whether this…
Rodríguez, A; Martin-Loeches, I; Bonastre, J; Olaechea, P; Alvarez-Lerma, F; Zaragoza, R; Guerrero, J; Blanco, J; Gordo, F; Pozo, F; Lorente, J; Carratalá, J; Cordero, M; Rello, J; Esteban, A; León, C
During the 2009 influenza pandemic, several reports were published, nevertheless, data on the clinical profiles of critically ill patients with the new virus infection during this second outbreak are still lacking. Prospective, observational, multi-center study conducted in 148 Spanish intensive care units (ICU) during epidemiological weeks 50-52 of 2010 and weeks 1 - 4 of 2011. Three hundred patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with confirmed An/H1N1 infection were analyzed. The median age was 49 years [IQR=38-58] and 62% were male. The mean APACHE II score was 16.9 ± 7.5 and the mean SOFA score was 6.3 ± 3.5 on admission. Comorbidities were present in 76% (n=228) of cases and 111 (37.4%) patients were reportedly obese and 59 (20%) were COPD. The main presentation was viral pneumonia with severe hypoxemia in 65.7% (n=197) of the patients whereas co-infection was identified in 54 (18%) patients. All patients received antiviral treatment and initiated empirically in 194 patients (65.3%), however only 53 patients (17.6%) received early antiviral treatment. Vaccination was only administered in 22 (7.3%) patients. Sixty-seven of 200 patients with ICU discharge died. Haematological disease, severity of illness, infiltrates in chest X-ray and need for mechanical ventilation were variables independently associated with ICU mortality. In patients admitted to the ICU in the post-pandemic seasonal influenza outbreak vaccination was poorly implemented and appear to have higher frequency of severe comorbidities, severity of illness, incidence of primary viral pneumonia and increased mortality when compared with those observed in the 2009 pandemic outbreak. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier España, S.L. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.
Luo, Yen-Fu; Rumshisky, Anna
Electronic health records provide valuable resources for understanding the correlation between various diseases and mortality. The analysis of post-discharge mortality is critical for healthcare professionals to follow up potential causes of death after a patient is discharged from the hospital and give prompt treatment. Moreover, it may reduce the cost derived from readmissions and improve the quality of healthcare. Our work focused on post-discharge ICU mortality prediction. In addition to features derived from physiological measurements, we incorporated ICD-9-CM hierarchy into Bayesian topic model learning and extracted topic features from medical notes. We achieved highest AUCs of 0.835 and 0.829 for 30-day and 6-month post-discharge mortality prediction using baseline and topic proportions derived from Labeled-LDA. Moreover, our work emphasized the interpretability of topic features derived from topic model which may facilitates the understanding and investigation of the complexity between mortality and diseases.
Davidovitch, Nitza; Soen, Dan
This study, conducted at a tertiary education institution in Israel, following two previous studies, was designed to deal again with a question that is a topic of debate in Israel and worldwide: Is there justification for the approach that considers restrictive university admission policies an efficient tool for predicting students' success at the…
Problematic Dichotomization of Risk for Intensive Care Unit (ICU)-Acquired Invasive Candidiasis: Results Using a Risk-Predictive Model to Categorize 3 Levels of Risk From a Multicenter Prospective Cohort of Australian ICU Patients.
Playford, E Geoffrey; Lipman, Jeffrey; Jones, Michael; Lau, Anna F; Kabir, Masrura; Chen, Sharon C-A; Marriott, Deborah J; Seppelt, Ian; Gottlieb, Thomas; Cheung, Winston; Iredell, Jonathan R; McBryde, Emma S; Sorrell, Tania C
Delayed antifungal therapy for invasive candidiasis (IC) contributes to poor outcomes. Predictive risk models may allow targeted antifungal prophylaxis to those at greatest risk. A prospective cohort study of 6685 consecutive nonneutropenic patients admitted to 7 Australian intensive care units (ICUs) for ≥72 hours was performed. Clinical risk factors for IC occurring prior to and following ICU admission, colonization with Candida species on surveillance cultures from 3 sites assessed twice weekly, and the occurrence of IC ≥72 hours following ICU admission or ≤72 hours following ICU discharge were measured. From these parameters, a risk-predictive model for the development of ICU-acquired IC was then derived. Ninety-six patients (1.43%) developed ICU-acquired IC. A simple summation risk-predictive model using the 10 independently significant variables associated with IC demonstrated overall moderate accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.82). No single threshold score could categorize patients into clinically useful high- and low-risk groups. However, using 2 threshold scores, 3 patient cohorts could be identified: those at high risk (score ≥6, 4.8% of total cohort, positive predictive value [PPV] 11.7%), those at low risk (score ≤2, 43.1% of total cohort, PPV 0.24%), and those at intermediate risk (score 3-5, 52.1% of total cohort, PPV 1.46%). Dichotomization of ICU patients into high- and low-risk groups for IC risk is problematic. Categorizing patients into high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups may more efficiently target early antifungal strategies and utilization of newer diagnostic tests. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org.
Clark, Brendan J.; Moss, Marc
Objective Cigarette smoking and unhealthy alcohol use are common causes of preventable morbidity and mortality that frequently result in admission to an intensive care unit. Understanding how to identify and intervene in these conditions is important because critical illness may provide a “teachable moment.” Furthermore, the Joint Commission recently proposed screening and receipt of an intervention for tobacco use and unhealthy alcohol use as candidate performance measures for all hospitalized patients. Understanding the efficacy of these interventions may help drive evidence-based institution of programs, if deemed appropriate. Data Sources A summary of the published medical literature on interventions for unhealthy alcohol use and smoking obtained through a PubMed search. Summary Interventions focusing on behavioral counseling for cigarette smoking in hospitalized patients have been extensively studied. Several studies include or focus on critically ill patients. The evidence demonstrates that behavioral counseling leads to increased rates of smoking cessation but the effect depends on the intensity of the intervention. The identification of unhealthy alcohol use can lead to brief interventions. These interventions are particularly effective in trauma patients with unhealthy alcohol use. However, the current literature would not support routine delivery of brief interventions for unhealthy alcohol use in the medical ICU population. Conclusion ICU admission represents a “teachable moment” for smokers and some patients with unhealthy alcohol use. Future studies should assess the efficacy of brief interventions for unhealthy alcohol use in medical ICU patients. In addition, identification of the timing and optimal individual to conduct the intervention will be necessary. PMID:21494113
Chertoff, Jason; Olson, Angela; Alnuaimat, Hassan
We sought to determine whether black patients admitted to an ICU were less likely than white patients to withdraw life-sustaining treatments. We performed a retrospective cohort study of hospital discharges from October 20, 2015, to October 19, 2016, for inpatients 18 years old or older and recorded those patients, along with their respective races, who had an "Adult Comfort Care" order set placed prior to discharge. A two-sample test for equality of two proportions with continuity correction was performed to compare the proportions between blacks and whites. University of Florida Health. The study cohort included 29,590 inpatient discharges, with 21,212 Caucasians (71.69%), 5,825 African Americans (19.69%), and 2,546 non-Caucasians/non-African Americans (8.62%). Withdrawal of life-sustaining treatments. Of the total discharges (n = 29,590), 525 (1.77%) had the Adult Comfort Care order set placed. Seventy-eight of 5,825 African American patients (1.34%) had the Adult Comfort Care order set placed, whereas 413 of 21,212 Caucasian patients (1.95%) had this order set placed (p = 0.00251; 95% CI, 0.00248-0.00968). Of the 29,590 patients evaluated, 6,324 patients (21.37%) spent at least one night in an ICU. Of these 6,324 patients, 4,821 (76.24%) were white and 1,056 (16.70%) were black. Three hundred fifty of 6,324 (5.53%) were discharged with an Adult Comfort Care order set. Two hundred seventy-one White patients (5.62%) with one night in an ICU were discharged with an Adult Comfort Care order set, whereas 54 Black patients (5.11%) with one night in an ICU had the order set (p = 0.516). This study suggests that Black patients may be less likely to withdraw life-supportive measures than whites, but that this disparity may be absent in patients who spend time in the ICU during their hospitalization.
Choi, Karmel W; Shaffer, Kelly M; Zale, Emily L; Funes, Christopher J; Koenen, Karestan C; Tehan, Tara; Rosand, Jonathan; Vranceanu, Ana-Maria
Informal caregivers-that is, close family and friends providing unpaid emotional or instrumental care-of patients admitted to ICUs are at risk for posttraumatic stress disorder. As a first step toward developing interventions to prevent posttraumatic stress disorder in ICU caregivers, we examined the predictive validity of psychosocial risk screening during admission for caregiver posttraumatic stress disorder at 3 and 6 months post hospitalization. An observational, prospective study. Ninety-nine caregivers were recruited as part of a longitudinal research program of patient-caregiver dyads in a neuroscience ICU. None. Caregiver posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms were assessed during admission (baseline), 3 months, and 6 months post hospitalization. We 1) characterized prevalence of clinically significant symptoms at each time point 2); calculated sensitivity and specificity of baseline posttraumatic stress disorder screening in predicting posttraumatic stress disorder at 3 and 6 months; and 3) used recursive partitioning to select potential baseline factors and examine the extent to which they helped predict clinically significant posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms at each time point. Rates of caregiver posttraumatic stress disorder remained relatively stable over time (16-22%). Screening for posttraumatic stress disorder at baseline predicted posttraumatic stress disorder at 3 and 6 months with moderate sensitivity (75-80%) and high specificity (92-95%). Screening for posttraumatic stress disorder at baseline was associated with caregiver anxiety, mindfulness (i.e., ability to be aware of one's thoughts and feelings in the moment), and bond with patient. Furthermore, baseline posttraumatic stress disorder screening was the single most relevant predictor of posttraumatic stress disorder at 3 and 6 months, such that other baseline factors did not significantly improve predictive ability. Screening neuroscience ICU caregivers for clinically significant
Sagy, I; Fuchs, L; Mizrakli, Y; Codish, S; Politi, L; Fink, L; Novack, V
Despite the evidence that the patient gender is an important component in the intensive care unit (ICU) admission decision, the role of physician gender and the interaction between the two remain unclear. To investigate the association of both the patient and the physician gender with ICU admission rate of critically ill emergency department (ED) medical patients in a hospital with restricted ICU bed capacity operates with 'closed door' policy. A retrospective population-based cohort analysis. We included patients above 18 admitted to an ED resuscitation room (RR) of a tertiary hospital during 2011-12. Data on medical, laboratory and clinical characteristics were obtained. We used an adjusted multivariable logistic regression to analyze the association between both the patient and the physician gender to the ICU admission decision. We included 831 RR admissions, 388 (46.7%) were female patients and 188 (22.6%) were treated by a female physicians. In adjusted multivariable analysis (adjusted for age, diabetes, mode of hospital transportation, first pH and patients who were treated with definitive airway and vasso-pressors in the RR), female-female combination (patient-physician, respectively) showed the lowest likelihood to be admitted to ICU (adjusted OR: 0.21; 95% CI: 0.09-0.51) compared to male-male combination, in addition to a smaller decrease among female-male (adjusted OR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.32-0.86) and male-female (adjusted OR: 0.43; 95% CI: 0.21-0.89) combinations. We demonstrated the existence of the possible gender bias where female gender of the patient and treating physician diminish the likelihood of the restricted health resource use.
Bagdure, Dayanand; Curtis, Donna J; Dobyns, Emily; Glodé, Mary P; Dominguez, Samuel R
Limited data are available describing the clinical presentation and risk factors for admission to the intensive care unit for children with 2009 H1N1 infection. We conducted a retrospective chart review of all hospitalized children with 2009 influenza A (H1N1) and 2008-09 seasonal influenza at The Children's Hospital, Denver, Colorado. Of the 307 children identified with 2009 H1N1 infections, the median age was 6 years, 61% were male, and 66% had underlying medical conditions. Eighty children (26%) were admitted to the ICU. Thirty-two (40%) of the ICU patients required intubation and 17 (53%) of the intubated patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Four patients required extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Eight (3%) of the hospitalized children died. Admission to the ICU was significantly associated with older age and underlying neurological condition. Compared to the 90 children admitted during the 2008-09 season, children admitted with 2009 H1N1 influenza were significantly older, had a shorter length of hospitalization, more use of antivirals, and a higher incidence of ARDS. Compared to the 2008-09 season, hospitalized children with 2009 H1N1 influenza were much older and had more severe respiratory disease. Among children hospitalized with 2009 H1N1 influenza, risk factors for admission to the ICU included older age and having an underlying neurological condition. Children under the age of 2 hospitalized with 2009 H1N1 influenza were significantly less likely to require ICU care compared to older hospitalized children.
Makransky, Guido; Havmose, Philip; Vang, Maria Louison; Andersen, Tonny Elmose; Nielsen, Tine
The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of a two-step admissions procedure that included a cognitive ability test followed by multiple mini-interviews (MMIs) used to assess non-cognitive skills, compared to grade-based admissions relative to subsequent drop-out rates and academic achievement after one and two years of study.…
Granholm, Anders; Perner, Anders; Krag, Mette; Hjortrup, Peter Buhl; Haase, Nicolai; Holst, Lars Broksø; Marker, Søren; Collet, Marie Oxenbøll; Jensen, Aksel Karl Georg; Møller, Morten Hylander
Mortality prediction scores are widely used in intensive care units (ICUs) and in research, but their predictive value deteriorates as scores age. Existing mortality prediction scores are imprecise and complex, which increases the risk of missing data and decreases the applicability bedside in daily clinical practice. We propose the development and validation of a new, simple and updated clinical prediction rule: the Simplified Mortality Score for use in the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU). During the first phase of the study, we will develop and internally validate a clinical prediction rule that predicts 90-day mortality on ICU admission. The development sample will comprise 4247 adult critically ill patients acutely admitted to the ICU, enrolled in 5 contemporary high-quality ICU studies/trials. The score will be developed using binary logistic regression analysis with backward stepwise elimination of candidate variables, and subsequently be converted into a point-based clinical prediction rule. The general performance, discrimination and calibration of the score will be evaluated, and the score will be internally validated using bootstrapping. During the second phase of the study, the score will be externally validated in a fully independent sample consisting of 3350 patients included in the ongoing Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit trial. We will compare the performance of the SMS-ICU to that of existing scores. We will use data from patients enrolled in studies/trials already approved by the relevant ethical committees and this study requires no further permissions. The results will be reported in accordance with the Transparent Reporting of multivariate prediction models for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement, and submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.
Denehy, Linda; de Morton, Natalie A; Skinner, Elizabeth H; Edbrooke, Lara; Haines, Kimberley; Warrillow, Stephen; Berney, Sue
Several tests have recently been developed to measure changes in patient strength and functional outcomes in the intensive care unit (ICU). The original Physical Function ICU Test (PFIT) demonstrates reliability and sensitivity. The aims of this study were to further develop the original PFIT, to derive an interval score (the PFIT-s), and to test the clinimetric properties of the PFIT-s. A nested cohort study was conducted. One hundred forty-four and 116 participants performed the PFIT at ICU admission and discharge, respectively. Original test components were modified using principal component analysis. Rasch analysis examined the unidimensionality of the PFIT, and an interval score was derived. Correlations tested validity, and multiple regression analyses investigated predictive ability. Responsiveness was assessed using the effect size index (ESI), and the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) was calculated. The shoulder lift component was removed. Unidimensionality of combined admission and discharge PFIT-s scores was confirmed. The PFIT-s displayed moderate convergent validity with the Timed "Up & Go" Test (r=-.60), the Six-Minute Walk Test (r=.41), and the Medical Research Council (MRC) sum score (rho=.49). The ESI of the PFIT-s was 0.82, and the MCID was 1.5 points (interval scale range=0-10). A higher admission PFIT-s score was predictive of: an MRC score of ≥48, increased likelihood of discharge home, reduced likelihood of discharge to inpatient rehabilitation, and reduced acute care hospital length of stay. Scoring of sit-to-stand assistance required is subjective, and cadence cutpoints used may not be generalizable. The PFIT-s is a safe and inexpensive test of physical function with high clinical utility. It is valid, responsive to change, and predictive of key outcomes. It is recommended that the PFIT-s be adopted to test physical function in the ICU.
Karimi Moridani, Mohammad; Setarehdan, Seyed Kamaledin; Motie Nasrabadi, Ali; Hajinasrollah, Esmaeil
Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are at risk of in-ICU morbidities and mortality, making specific systems for identifying at-risk patients a necessity for improving clinical care. This study presents a new method for predicting in-hospital mortality using heart rate variability (HRV) collected from the times of a patient's ICU stay. In this paper, a HRV time series processing based method is proposed for mortality prediction of ICU cardiovascular patients. HRV signals were obtained measuring R-R time intervals. A novel method, named return map, is then developed that reveals useful information from the HRV time series. This study also proposed several features that can be extracted from the return map, including the angle between two vectors, the area of triangles formed by successive points, shortest distance to 45° line and their various combinations. Finally, a thresholding technique is proposed to extract the risk period and to predict mortality. The data used to evaluate the proposed algorithm obtained from 80 cardiovascular ICU patients, from the first 48 h of the first ICU stay of 40 males and 40 females. This study showed that the angle feature has on average a sensitivity of 87.5% (with 12 false alarms), the area feature has on average a sensitivity of 89.58% (with 10 false alarms), the shortest distance feature has on average a sensitivity of 85.42% (with 14 false alarms) and, finally, the combined feature has on average a sensitivity of 92.71% (with seven false alarms). The results showed that the last half an hour before the patient's death is very informative for diagnosing the patient's condition and to save his/her life. These results confirm that it is possible to predict mortality based on the features introduced in this paper, relying on the variations of the HRV dynamic characteristics.
Lynch, Kathleen Bodisch; Woode, Moses K.
A study identifying the relationships between quantitative academic characteristics--specifically, grade point average (GPA) and MCAT scores--and admission into medical school for minorities is presented. Explanations are proposed for contradictory findings related to this question that have appeared in literature. Data from 58 minority student…
Schlapbach, Luregn J; MacLaren, Graeme; Festa, Marino; Alexander, Janet; Erickson, Simon; Beca, John; Slater, Anthony; Schibler, Andreas; Pilcher, David; Millar, Johnny; Straney, Lahn
The definitions of sepsis and septic shock have recently been revised in adults, but contemporary data are needed to inform similar approaches in children. Multicenter cohort study including children <16 years admitted with sepsis or septic shock to ICUs in Australia and New Zealand in the period 2012-2015. We assessed septic shock criteria at ICU admission to define sepsis severity, using 30-day mortality as outcome. Through multivariable logistic regression, a pediatric sepsis score was derived using variables available within 60 min of ICU admission. Of 42,523 pediatric admissions, 4403 children were admitted with invasive infection, including 1697 diagnosed as having sepsis/septic shock on admission. Mortality was 8.5% (144/1697) and 50.7% of deaths occurred within 48 h of admission. The presence of septic shock as defined by the 2005 consensus was sensitive but not specific in predicting mortality (AUC = 0.69; 95% CI 0.65-0.72). Combinations of hypotension, vasopressor therapy, and lactate >2 mmol/l discriminated poorly (AUC <0.60). Multivariate models showed that oxygenation markers, ventilatory support, hypotension, cardiac arrest, serum lactate, pupil responsiveness, and immunosuppression were the best-performing predictors (0.843; 0.811-0.875). We derived a pediatric sepsis score (0.817; 0.779-0.855), and every one-point increase was associated with a 28.5% (23.8-33.2%) increase in the odds of death. Children with a score ≥6 had 19.8% mortality and accounted for 74.3% of deaths. The sepsis score performed comparably when applied to all children admitted with invasive infection (0.810; 0.781-0.840). We observed mortality patterns specific to pediatric sepsis that support the need for specialized definitions of sepsis severity in children. We demonstrated the importance of lactate, cardiovascular, and respiratory derangements at ICU admission for the identification of children with substantially higher risk of sepsis mortality.
McAllister, David A; Halbesma, Nynke; Carruthers, Kathryn; Denvir, Martin; Fox, Keith A
Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a common and preventable complication of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Nevertheless, ACS risk scores have not been shown to predict CHF risk. We investigated whether the at-discharge Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score predicts heart failure admission following ACS. Five-year mortality and hospitalization data were obtained for patients admitted with ACS from June 1999 to September 2009 to a single centre of the GRACE registry. CHF was defined as any admission assigned WHO International Classification of Diseases 10 diagnostic code I50. The hazard ratio (HR) for CHF according to GRACE score was estimated in Cox models adjusting for age, gender and the presence of CHF on index admission. Among 1,956 patients, CHF was recorded on index admission in 141 patients (7%), and 243 (12%) were admitted with CHF over 3.8 median years of follow-up. Compared to the lowest quintile, patients in the highest GRACE score quintile had more CHF admissions (116 vs 17) and a shorter time to first admission (1.2 vs 2.0 years, HR 9.87, 95% CI 5.93-16.43). Per standard deviation increment in GRACE score, the instantaneous risk was more than two-fold higher (HR 2.28; 95% CI 2.02-2.57), including after adjustment for CHF on index admission, age and gender (HR 2.49; 95% CI 2.06-3.02). The C-statistic for CHF admission at 1-year was 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79). The GRACE score predicts CHF admission, and may therefore be used to target ACS patients at high risk of CHF with clinical monitoring and therapies. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.
Martin-Loeches, I; Lisboa, T; Rhodes, A; Moreno, R P; Silva, E; Sprung, C; Chiche, J D; Barahona, D; Villabon, M; Balasini, C; Pearse, R M; Matos, R; Rello, J
Early use of corticosteroids in patients affected by pandemic (H1N1)v influenza A infection, although relatively common, remains controversial. Prospective, observational, multicenter study from 23 June 2009 through 11 February 2010, reported in the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine (ESICM) H1N1 registry. Two hundred twenty patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with completed outcome data were analyzed. Invasive mechanical ventilation was used in 155 (70.5%). Sixty-seven (30.5%) of the patients died in ICU and 75 (34.1%) whilst in hospital. One hundred twenty-six (57.3%) patients received corticosteroid therapy on admission to ICU. Patients who received corticosteroids were significantly older and were more likely to have coexisting asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and chronic steroid use. These patients receiving corticosteroids had increased likelihood of developing hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) [26.2% versus 13.8%, p < 0.05; odds ratio (OR) 2.2, confidence interval (CI) 1.1-4.5]. Patients who received corticosteroids had significantly higher ICU mortality than patients who did not (46.0% versus 18.1%, p < 0.01; OR 3.8, CI 2.1-7.2). Cox regression analysis adjusted for severity and potential confounding factors identified that early use of corticosteroids was not significantly associated with mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1.3, 95% CI 0.7-2.4, p = 0.4] but was still associated with an increased rate of HAP (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.0-4.8, p < 0.05). When only patients developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) were analyzed, similar results were observed. Early use of corticosteroids in patients affected by pandemic (H1N1)v influenza A infection did not result in better outcomes and was associated with increased risk of superinfections.
Hernández-Tejedor, A; Martín Delgado, M C; Cabré Pericas, L; Algora Weber, A
Limitation of life-sustaining treatment (LLST) is a recommended practice in certain circumstances. Limitation practices are varied, and their application differs from one center to another. The present study evaluates the current situation of LLST practices in patients with prolonged admission to the ICU who suffer worsening of their condition. A prospective, observational cohort study was carried out. Seventy-five Spanish ICUs. A total of 589 patients suffering 777 complications or adverse events with organ function impairment after day 7 of admission, during a three-month recruitment period. The timing of limitation, the subject proposing LLST, the degree of agreement within the team, the influence of LLST upon the doctor-patient-family relationship, and the way in which LLST is implemented. LLST was proposed in 34.3% of the patients presenting prolonged admission to the ICU with severe complications. The incidence was higher in patients with moderate to severe lung disease, cancer, immunosuppressive treatment or dependence for basic activities of daily living. LLST was finally implemented in 97% of the cases in which it was proposed. The decision within the medical team was unanimous in 87.9% of the cases. The doctor-patient-family relationship usually does not change or even improves in this situation. LLST in ICUs is usually carried out under unanimous decision of the medical team, is performed more frequently in patients with severe comorbidity, and usually does not have a negative impact upon the relationship with the patients and their families. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.
Pfouts, Jane H.; Henley, H. Carl, Jr.
A multivariate predictive index of student field performance to be used as an admissions tool in graduate schools of social work is described. It measures the effect on field performance of (1) a measure of the student's intellectual ability, (2) undergraduate school quality, (3) prior work experience, and (4) student sex. (Author/LBH)
Nayak, N M; Madhumitha, S; Annigeri, R A; Venkataraman, R; Balasubramaian, S; Seshadri, R; Vadamalai, V; Rao, B S; Kowdle, P C; Ramakrishnan, N; Mani, M K
Urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) is a reliable early biomarker of acute kidney injury (AKI) in a homogeneous patient population. However, its utility in a heterogeneous population of critically ill, in whom the time of onset of renal insult is often unclear, is not clearly established. We evaluated the ability of a single measurement of uNGAL in a heterogeneous adult population, on admission to intensive care unit (ICU), to predict the occurrence of AKI and hospital mortality. One hundred and two consecutive adult patients had uNGAL measured within 8 h of admission to ICU. The demographic and laboratory data were collected at admission. The diagnosis of AKI was based on AKI Network (AKIN) criteria. The primary outcome was the development of AKI, and the secondary outcome was hospital mortality. The mean age was 54 ± 16.4 years and 65% were males. Urine NGAL (ng/ml) was 69 ± 42 in patients with AKI (n = 42) and 30.4 ± 41.7 in those without AKI (P < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for prediction of AKI was 0.79 and for serum creatinine (SCr) was 0.88. The sensitivity and specificity for a cut-off value of uNGAL of 75 ng/ml to predict AKI were 0.5 and 0.85 respectively. uNGAL > 75 ng/ml was a strong (odd ratio = 5.17, 95% confidence interval: 1.39-19.3) and independent predictor of hospital mortality. A single measurement of uNGAL at admission to ICU exhibited good predictive ability for AKI though the sensitivity was low. The predictive ability of uNGAL was inferior to simultaneously measured SCr at admission, hence limited its clinical utility to predict AKI. However, admission uNGAL was a strong, independent predictor of hospital mortality.
Nayak, N. M.; Madhumitha, S.; Annigeri, R. A.; Venkataraman, R.; Balasubramaian, S.; Seshadri, R.; Vadamalai, V.; Rao, B. S.; Kowdle, P. C.; Ramakrishnan, N.; Mani, M. K.
Urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) is a reliable early biomarker of acute kidney injury (AKI) in a homogeneous patient population. However, its utility in a heterogeneous population of critically ill, in whom the time of onset of renal insult is often unclear, is not clearly established. We evaluated the ability of a single measurement of uNGAL in a heterogeneous adult population, on admission to intensive care unit (ICU), to predict the occurrence of AKI and hospital mortality. One hundred and two consecutive adult patients had uNGAL measured within 8 h of admission to ICU. The demographic and laboratory data were collected at admission. The diagnosis of AKI was based on AKI Network (AKIN) criteria. The primary outcome was the development of AKI, and the secondary outcome was hospital mortality. The mean age was 54 ± 16.4 years and 65% were males. Urine NGAL (ng/ml) was 69 ± 42 in patients with AKI (n = 42) and 30.4 ± 41.7 in those without AKI (P < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for prediction of AKI was 0.79 and for serum creatinine (SCr) was 0.88. The sensitivity and specificity for a cut-off value of uNGAL of 75 ng/ml to predict AKI were 0.5 and 0.85 respectively. uNGAL > 75 ng/ml was a strong (odd ratio = 5.17, 95% confidence interval: 1.39–19.3) and independent predictor of hospital mortality. A single measurement of uNGAL at admission to ICU exhibited good predictive ability for AKI though the sensitivity was low. The predictive ability of uNGAL was inferior to simultaneously measured SCr at admission, hence limited its clinical utility to predict AKI. However, admission uNGAL was a strong, independent predictor of hospital mortality. PMID:27051136
Kreutziger, Janett; Rafetseder, Andreas; Mathis, Simon; Wenzel, Volker; El Attal, René; Schmid, Stefan
Admission blood glucose is known to be a predictor for outcome in several disease patterns, especially in critically ill trauma patients. The underlying mechanisms for the association of hyperglycaemia and poor outcome are still not proven. It was hypothesised that hyperglycaemia upon hospital admission is associated with haemorrhagic shock and in-hospital mortality. Data was extracted from an observational trauma database of the level 1 trauma centre at Innsbruck Medical University hospital. Trauma patients (≥18 years) with multiple injuries and an Injury Severity Score ≥17 were included and analysed. In total, 279 patients were analysed, of which 42 patients (15.1%) died. With increasing blood glucose upon hospital admission, the rate of patients with haemorrhagic shock rose significantly [from 4.4% (glucose 4.1-5.5mmol/L) to 87.5% (glucose >15mmol/L), p<0.0001]. Mortality was also associated with initial blood glucose [≤5.50mmol/L 8.3%; 5.51-7.50mmol/L 10.9%, 7.51-10mmol/L 12.4%; 10.01-15mmol/L 32.0%; ≥15.01mmol/L 12.5%, p=0.008]. Admission blood glucose was a better indicator for haemorrhagic shock (cut-off 9.4mmol/L, sensitivity 67.1%, specificity 83.9%) than haemoglobin, base excess, bicarbonate, pH, lactate, or vital parameters. Regarding haemorrhagic shock, admission blood glucose is more valuable during initial patient assessment than the second best predictive parameter, which was admission haemoglobin (cut-off value 6.5mmol/L (10.4g/dL): sensitivity 61.3%, specificity 83.9%). In multiple trauma, non-diabetic patients, admission blood glucose predicted the incidence of haemorrhagic shock. Admission blood glucose is an inexpensive, rapidly and easily available laboratory value that might help to identify patients at risk for haemorrhagic shock during initial evaluation upon hospital admission. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Kayaalp, M.; Cooper, G. F.; Clermont, G.
OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates the effectiveness of the stationarity assumption in predicting the mortality of intensive care unit (ICU) patients at the ICU discharge. DESIGN: This is a comparative study. A stationary temporal Bayesian network learned from data was compared to a set of (33) nonstationary temporal Bayesian networks learned from data. A process observed as a sequence of events is stationary if its stochastic properties stay the same when the sequence is shifted in a positive or negative direction by a constant time parameter. The temporal Bayesian networks forecast mortalities of patients, where each patient has one record per day. The predictive performance of the stationary model is compared with nonstationary models using the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. RESULTS: The stationary model usually performed best. However, one nonstationary model using large data sets performed significantly better than the stationary model. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that using a combination of stationary and nonstationary models may predict better than using either alone. PMID:11079917
To compare the validity of the Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and Logistic Organ Dysfunction Score (LOD) for predicting ICU mortality of Thai critically ill patients. A retrospective study was made of prospective data collected between the 1st July 2004 and 31st March 2006 at Songklanagarind Hospital. One thousand seven hundred and eighty two patients were enrolled in the present study. Two hundred and ninety three (16.4%) deaths were recorded in the ICU. The areas under the Receiver Operating Curves (A UC) for the prediction of ICU mortality the results were 0.861 for MODS, 0.879 for SOFA and 0.880 for LOD. The AUC of SOFA and LOD showed a statistical significance higher than the MODS score (p = 0.014 and p = 0.042, respectively). Of all the models, the neurological failure score showed the best correlation with ICU mortality. All three organ dysfunction scores satisfactorily predicted ICU mortality. The LOD and neurological failure had the best correlation with ICU outcome.
Gagné, Mathieu; Moore, Lynne; Sirois, Marie-Josée; Simard, Marc; Beaudoin, Claudia; Kuimi, Brice Lionel Batomen
The International Classification of Diseases (ICD) is the main classification system used for population-based traumatic brain injury (TBI) surveillance activities but does not contain direct information on injury severity. International Classification of Diseases-based injury severity measures can be empirically derived or mapped to the Abbreviated Injury Scale, but no single approach has been formally recommended for TBI. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of different ICD-based injury severity measures for predicting in-hospital mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission in TBI patients. We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study. We identified all patients 16 years or older with a TBI diagnosis who received acute care between April 1, 2006, and March 31, 2013, from the Quebec Hospital Discharge Database. The accuracy of five ICD-based injury severity measures for predicting mortality and ICU admission was compared using measures of discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) and calibration (calibration plot and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic). Of 31,087 traumatic brain-injured patients in the study population, 9.0% died in hospital, and 34.4% were admitted to the ICU. Among ICD-based severity measures that were assessed, the multiplied derivative of ICD-based Injury Severity Score (ICISS-Multiplicative) demonstrated the best discriminative ability for predicting in-hospital mortality (AUC, 0.858; 95% confidence interval, 0.852-0.864) and ICU admissions (AUC, 0.813; 95% confidence interval, 0.808-0.818). Calibration assessments showed good agreement between observed and predicted in-hospital mortality for ICISS measures. All severity measures presented high agreement between observed and expected probabilities of ICU admission for all deciles of risk. The ICD-based injury severity measures can be used to accurately predict in-hospital mortality and ICU admission in TBI
Pothula, Venu M.; Yuan, Stanley C.; Maerz, David A.; Montes, Lucresia; Oleszkiewicz, Stephen M.; Yusupov, Albert; Perline, Richard
Background Advanced predictive analytical techniques are being increasingly applied to clinical risk assessment. This study compared a neural network model to several other models in predicting the length of stay (LOS) in the cardiac surgical intensive care unit (ICU) based on pre-incision patient characteristics. Methods Thirty six variables collected from 185 cardiac surgical patients were analyzed for contribution to ICU LOS. The Automatic Linear Modeling (ALM) module of IBM-SPSS software identified 8 factors with statistically significant associations with ICU LOS; these factors were also analyzed with the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) module of the same software. The weighted contributions of each factor (“trained” data) were then applied to data for a “new” patient to predict ICU LOS for that individual. Results Factors identified in the ALM model were: use of an intra-aortic balloon pump; O2 delivery index; age; use of positive cardiac inotropic agents; hematocrit; serum creatinine ≥ 1.3 mg/deciliter; gender; arterial pCO2. The r2 value for ALM prediction of ICU LOS in the initial (training) model was 0.356, p <0.0001. Cross validation in prediction of a “new” patient yielded r2 = 0.200, p <0.0001. The same 8 factors analyzed with ANN yielded a training prediction r2 of 0.535 (p <0.0001) and a cross validation prediction r2 of 0.410, p <0.0001. Two additional predictive algorithms were studied, but they had lower prediction accuracies. Our validated neural network model identified the upper quartile of ICU LOS with an odds ratio of 9.8(p <0.0001). Conclusions ANN demonstrated a 2-fold greater accuracy than ALM in prediction of observed ICU LOS. This greater accuracy would be presumed to result from the capacity of ANN to capture nonlinear effects and higher order interactions. Predictive modeling may be of value in early anticipation of risks of post-operative morbidity and utilization of ICU facilities. PMID:26710254
Ravn, Bo; Prowle, John R; Mårtensson, Johan; Martling, Claes-Roland; Bell, Max
Renal outcomes after critical illness are seldom assessed despite strong correlation between chronic kidney disease and survival. Outside hospital, renal dysfunction is more strongly associated with mortality when assessed by serum cystatin C than by creatinine. The relationship between creatinine and longer term mortality might be particularly weak in survivors of critical illness. Retrospective observational cohort study. In 3,077 adult ICU survivors, we compared ICU discharge cystatin C and creatinine and their association with 1-year mortality. Exclusions were death within 72 hours of ICU discharge, ICU stay less than 24 hours, and end-stage renal disease. None. During ICU admission, serum cystatin C and creatinine diverged, so that by ICU discharge, almost twice as many patients had glomerular filtration rate less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m when estimated from cystatin C compared with glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine, 44% versus 26%. In 743 patients without acute kidney injury, where ICU discharge renal function should reflect ongoing baseline, discharge glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine consistently overestimated follow-up glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine, whereas ICU discharge glomerular filtration rate estimated from cystatin C well matched follow-up chronic kidney disease status. By 1 year, 535 (17.4%) had died. In survival analysis adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidity, cystatin C was near-linearly associated with increased mortality, hazard ratio equals to 1.78 (95% CI, 1.46-2.18), 75th versus 25th centile. Conversely, creatinine demonstrated a J-shaped relationship with mortality, so that in the majority of patients, there was no significant association with survival, hazard ratio equals to 1.03 (0.87-1.2), 75th versus 25th centile. After adjustment for both creatinine and cystatin C levels, higher discharge creatinine was then associated with lower long-term mortality. In contrast to creatinine
Almog, Yaniv; Perl, Yael; Novack, Victor; Galante, Ori; Klein, Moti; Pencina, Michael J.; Douvdevani, Amos
Aim The aim of the current study is to assess the mortality prediction accuracy of circulating cell-free DNA (CFD) level at admission measured by a new simplified method. Materials and Methods CFD levels were measured by a direct fluorescence assay in severe sepsis patients on intensive care unit (ICU) admission. In-hospital and/or twenty eight day all-cause mortality was the primary outcome. Results Out of 108 patients with median APACHE II of 20, 32.4% have died in hospital/or at 28-day. CFD levels were higher in decedents: median 3469.0 vs. 1659 ng/ml, p<0.001. In multivariable model APACHE II score and CFD (quartiles) were significantly associated with the mortality: odds ratio of 1.05, p = 0.049 and 2.57, p<0.001 per quartile respectively. C-statistics for the models was 0.79 for CFD and 0.68 for APACHE II. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analyses showed that CFD and CFD+APACHE II score models had better discriminatory ability than APACHE II score alone. Conclusions CFD level assessed by a new, simple fluorometric-assay is an accurate predictor of acute mortality among ICU patients with severe sepsis. Comparison of CFD to APACHE II score and Procalcitonin (PCT), suggests that CFD has the potential to improve clinical decision making. PMID:24955978
González-Castro, A; Ortiz-Lasa, M; Leizaola, O; Salgado, E; Irriguible, T; Sánchez-Satorra, M; Lomas-Fernández, C; Barral-Segade, P; Cordero-Vallejo, M; Rodrigo-Calabia, E; Dierssen-Sotos, T
To analyse the association between water balance during the first 24h of admission to ICU and the variables related to chloride levels (chloride loading, type of fluid administered, hyperchloraemia), with the development of acute kidney injury renal replacement therapy (AKI-RRT) during patients' admission to ICU. Multicentre case-control study. Hospital-based, national, carried out in 6 ICUs. Cases were patients older than 18 years who developed an AKI-RRT. Controls were patients older than 18 years admitted to the same institutions during the study period, who did not develop AKI-RRT during ICU admission. Pairing was done by APACHE-II. An analysis of unconditional logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, APACHE-II and water balance (in evaluating the type of fluid). We analysed the variables of 430 patients: 215 cases and 215 controls. An increase of 10% of the possibility of developing AKI-RRT per 500ml of positive water balance was evident (OR: 1.09 [95% CI: 1.05 to 1.14]; P<.001). The study of mean values of chloride load administered did not show differences between the group of cases and controls (299.35±254.91 vs. 301.67±234.63; P=.92). The water balance in the first 24h of ICU admission relates to the development of IRA-TRR, regardless of chloraemia. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Anestesiología, Reanimación y Terapéutica del Dolor. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Cooke, Colin R
The extent to which geographic variability in ICU admission across the United States is driven by patients with lower risk of death is unknown. To determine whether patients at low to moderate risk of death contribute to geographic variation in ICU admission. Retrospective cohort of hospitalizations among Medicare beneficiaries (age > 64 years) admitted for ten common medical and surgical diagnoses (2004 to 2009). We examined population-adjusted rates of ICU admission per 100 hospitalizations in 304 health referral regions (HRR), and estimated the relative risk of ICU admission across strata of regional ICU and risk of death, adjusted for patient and regional characteristics. ICU admission rates varied nearly two-fold across HRR quartiles (quartile 1 to 4: 13.6, 17.3, 20.0, and 25.2 per 100 hospitalizations, respectively). Observed mortality for patients in regions (quartile 4) with the greatest ICU use was 17% compared to 21% in regions with lowest ICU use (quartile 1) (p<0.001). After adjusting for patient and regional characteristics, including regional differences in ICU, skilled nursing, and long-term acute care bed capacity, individuals' risk of death modified the relationship between regional ICU use and an individual's risk of ICU admission (p for interaction<0.001). Region was least important in predicting ICU admission among patients with high (quartile 4) risk of death (RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.22-1.31, for high versus low ICU use regions), and most important for patients with moderate (quartile 2; RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.53-1.72, quartile 3; RR 1.56 95% CI 1.47-1.65) and low (quartile 1) risk of death (RR 1.50, 95% CI 1.41-1.59). There is wide variation in in ICU use by geography, independent of ICU beds and physician supply, for patients with low and moderate risks of death.
Chico-Fernández, M; Llompart-Pou, J A; Sánchez-Casado, M; Alberdi-Odriozola, F; Guerrero-López, F; Mayor-García, M D; Egea-Guerrero, J J; Fernández-Ortega, J F; Bueno-González, A; González-Robledo, J; Servià-Goixart, L; Roldán-Ramírez, J; Ballesteros-Sanz, M Á; Tejerina-Alvarez, E; Pino-Sánchez, F I; Homar-Ramírez, J
To validate Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) methodology as an auditing tool in the Spanish ICU Trauma Registry (RETRAUCI). A prospective, multicenter registry evaluation was carried out. Thirteen Spanish Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Individuals with traumatic disease and available data admitted to the participating ICUs. Predicted mortality using TRISS methodology was compared with that observed in the pilot phase of the RETRAUCI from November 2012 to January 2015. Discrimination was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the corresponding areas under the curves (AUCs) (95% CI), with calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit test. A value of p<0.05 was considered significant. Predicted and observed mortality. A total of 1405 patients were analyzed. The observed mortality rate was 18% (253 patients), while the predicted mortality rate was 16.9%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.889 (95% CI: 0.867-0.911). Patients with blunt trauma (n=1305) had an area under the ROC curve of 0.887 (95% CI: 0.864-0.910), and those with penetrating trauma (n=100) presented an area under the curve of 0.919 (95% CI: 0.859-0.979). In the global sample, the HL test yielded a value of 25.38 (p=0.001): 27.35 (p<0.0001) in blunt trauma and 5.91 (p=0.658) in penetrating trauma. TRISS methodology underestimated mortality in patients with low predicted mortality and overestimated mortality in patients with high predicted mortality. TRISS methodology in the evaluation of severe trauma in Spanish ICUs showed good discrimination, with inadequate calibration - particularly in blunt trauma. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.
Arce-Ferrer, Alvaro J.; Castillo, Irene Borges
The use of face-to-face interviews is controversial for college admissions decisions in light of the lack of availability of validity and reliability evidence for most college admission processes. This study investigated reliability and incremental predictive validity of a face-to-face postgraduate college admission interview with a sample of…
The injury severity score or the new injury severity score for predicting mortality, intensive care unit admission and length of hospital stay: experience from a university hospital in a developing country.
Tamim, Hala; Al Hazzouri, Adina Zeki; Mahfoud, Ziad; Atoui, Maria; El-Chemaly, Souheil
Limited research has been performed to compare the predictive abilities of the injury severity score (ISS) and the new ISS (NISS) in the developing world. From January 2001 until January 2003 all trauma patients admitted to the American University of Beirut Medical Centre were enrolled. The statistical performance of the ISS/NISS in predicting mortality, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and length of hospital stay (LOS dichotomised as <10 or > or =10 days) was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration statistic. A total of 891 consecutive patients were enrolled. The ISS and NISS were equivalent in predicting survival, and both performed better in patients younger than 65 years of age. However, the ISS predicted ICU admission and LOS better than the NISS. However, these predictive abilities were lower for the geriatric trauma patients aged 65 years and above compared to the other age groups. There are conflicting results in the literature about the abilities of ISS and NISS to predict mortality. However, this is the first study to report that ISS has a superior ability in predicting both LOS and ICU admission. The scoring of trauma severity may need to be individualised to different countries and trauma systems.
The purposes of this study were to determine factors and predictors that influence nurses' intention to use the eICU technology, to examine the applicability of the Technology Acceptance Model in explaining nurses' intention to use the eICU technology in healthcare settings, and to provide psychometric evidence of the measurement scales used in the study. The study involved 117 participants from two healthcare systems. The Telemedicine Technology Acceptance Model was developed based on the original Technology Acceptance Model that was initially developed by Fred Davis in 1986. The eICU Acceptance Survey was used as an instrument for the study. Content validity was examined, and the reliability of the instrument was tested. The results show that perceived usefulness is the most influential factor that influences nurses' intention to use the eICU technology. The principal factors that influence perceived usefulness are perceived ease of use, support from physicians, and years working in the hospital. The model fit was reasonably adequate and able to explain 58% of the variance (R = 0.58) in intention to use the eICU technology with the nursing sample.
Cowley, Amy; Newton, Jonathan; Sturmey, Peter; Bouras, Nick; Holt, Geraldine
Information on admission to psychiatric inpatient units is lacking from the literature on contemporary services for people with intellectual disability and mental health needs. Here we report on predictors of admission for a cohort of 752 adults from this population living in community settings; 83 were admitted. We also report on two subsamples…
Blackmore, Amanda Marie; Bear, Natasha; Blair, Eve; Langdon, Katherine; Moshovis, Lisa; Steer, Kellie; Wilson, Andrew C
To determine the early predictors of respiratory hospital admissions in young people with cerebral palsy (CP). A 3-year prospective cohort study using linked data. Children and young people with CP, aged 1 to 26 years. Self-reported and carer-reported respiratory symptoms were linked to respiratory hospital admissions (as defined by the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision codes) during the following 3 years. 482 participants (including 289 males) were recruited. They were aged 1 to 26 years (mean 10 years, 10 months; SD 5 years, 11 months) at the commencement of the study, and represented all Gross Motor Function Classification Scale (GMFCS) levels. During the 3-year period, 55 (11.4%) participants had a total of 186 respiratory hospital admissions, and spent a total of 1475 days in hospital. Statistically significant risk factors for subsequent respiratory hospital admissions over 3 years in univariate analyses were GMFCS level V, at least one respiratory hospital admission in the year preceding the survey, oropharyngeal dysphagia, seizures, frequent respiratory symptoms, gastro-oesophageal reflux disease, at least two courses of antibiotics in the year preceding the survey, mealtime respiratory symptoms and nightly snoring. Most risk factors for respiratory hospital admissions are potentially modifiable. Early identification of oropharyngeal dysphagia and the management of seizures may help prevent serious respiratory illness. One respiratory hospital admission should trigger further evaluation and management to prevent subsequent respiratory illness. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.
Sesate, Diana B.; Milem, Jeffrey F.; McIntosh, Kadian L.; Bryan, W. Patrick
The relative impact of admissions factors and curricular measures on the first medical licensing exam (United States Medical Licensing Exam [USMLE] Step 1) scores is examined. The inclusion of first-year and second-year curricular measures nearly doubled the variance explained in Step 1 scores from the amount explained by the combination of…
Pratt, William R.
Within this study the author examines factors commonly employed as master of business administration applicant evaluation criteria to see if these criteria are important in determining an applicant's potential for success. The findings indicate that the Graduate Management Admissions Test (GMAT) is not a significant predictor of student success…
Bills, James L.; VanHouten, Jacob; Grundy, Michelle M.; Chalkley, Roger; Dermody, Terence S.
The Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) is a quantitative metric used by MD and MD-PhD programs to evaluate applicants for admission. This study assessed the validity of the MCAT in predicting training performance measures and career outcomes for MD-PhD students at a single institution. The study population consisted of 153 graduates of the…
Kramer, Gene A.; Johnston, JoElle
A study examined the relationship between Optometry Admission Test scores and pre-optometry or undergraduate grade point average (GPA) with first and second year performance in optometry schools. The test's predictive validity was limited but significant, and comparable to those reported for other admission tests. In addition, the scores…
Ramiarina, Robert; Almeida, Renan Mvr; Pereira, Wagner Ca
The present work analyzed the association between hospital costs and patient admission characteristics in a general public hospital in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The unit costs method was used to estimate inpatient day costs associated to specific hospital clinics. With this aim, three "cost centers" were defined in order to group direct and indirect expenses pertaining to the clinics. After the costs were estimated, a standard linear regression model was developed for correlating cost units and their putative predictors (the patients gender and age, the admission type (urgency/elective), ICU admission (yes/no), blood transfusion (yes/no), the admission outcome (death/no death), the complexity of the medical procedures performed, and a risk-adjustment index). Data were collected for 3100 patients, January 2001-January 2003. Average inpatient costs across clinics ranged from (US$) 1135 [Orthopedics] to 3101 [Cardiology]. Costs increased according to increases in the risk-adjustment index in all clinics, and the index was statistically significant in all clinics except Urology, General surgery, and Clinical medicine. The occupation rate was inversely correlated to costs, and age had no association with costs. The (adjusted) per cent of explained variance varied between 36.3% [Clinical medicine] and 55.1% [Thoracic surgery clinic]. The estimates are an important step towards the standardization of hospital costs calculation, especially for countries that lack formal hospital accounting systems.
Lunneborg, Clifford E.
A decision-making or utility theory model (which deals effectively with affirmative action goals and allows standardized tests to be placed in the service of those goals) is discussed as an alternative to traditional predictive admissions. (Author/PN)
Marque, Sophie; Cariou, Alain; Chiche, Jean-Daniel; Mallet, Vincent Olivier; Pene, Frédéric; Mira, Jean-Paul; Dhainaut, Jean-François; Claessens, Yann-Erick
Introduction Factors predictive of the need for red blood cell (RBC) transfusion in the intensive care unit (ICU) have been identified, but risk factors for transfusion after ICU discharge are unknown. This study aims identifies risk factors for RBC transfusion after discharge from the ICU. Methods A prospective, monocentric observational study was conducted over a 6-month period in a 24-bed medical ICU in a French university hospital. Between June and December 2003, 550 critically ill patients were consecutively enrolled in the study. Results A total of 428 patients survived after treatment in the ICU; 47 (11% of the survivors, 8.5% of the whole population) required RBC transfusion within 7 days after ICU discharge. Admission for sepsis (odds ratio [OR] 341.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 20.35–5734.51), presence of an underlying malignancy (OR 32.6, 95%CI 3.8–280.1), female sex (OR 5.4, 95% CI 1.2–24.9), Logistic Organ Dysfunction score at ICU discharge (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.1–1.9) and age (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.02–1.12) were independently associated with RBC transfusion after ICU stay. Haemoglobin level at discharge predicted the need for delayed RBC transfusion. Use of vasopressors (OR 0.01, 95%CI 0.001–0.17) and haemoglobin level at discharge from the ICU (OR 0.02, 95% CI 0.007–0.09; P < 0.001) were strong independent predictors of transfusion of RBC 1 week after ICU discharge. Conclusion Sepsis, underlying conditions, unresolved organ failures and haemoglobin level at discharge were related to an increased risk for RBC transfusion after ICU stay. We suggest that strategies to prevent transfusion should focus on homogeneous subgroups of patients and take into account post-ICU needs for RBC transfusion. PMID:16965637
Luo, Gang; Stone, Bryan L; Johnson, Michael D; Nkoy, Flory L
In young children, bronchiolitis is the most common illness resulting in hospitalization. For children less than age 2, bronchiolitis incurs an annual total inpatient cost of $1.73 billion. Each year in the United States, 287,000 emergency department (ED) visits occur because of bronchiolitis, with a hospital admission rate of 32%-40%. Due to a lack of evidence and objective criteria for managing bronchiolitis, ED disposition decisions (hospital admission or discharge to home) are often made subjectively, resulting in significant practice variation. Studies reviewing admission need suggest that up to 29% of admissions from the ED are unnecessary. About 6% of ED discharges for bronchiolitis result in ED returns with admission. These inappropriate dispositions waste limited health care resources, increase patient and parental distress, expose patients to iatrogenic risks, and worsen outcomes. Existing clinical guidelines for bronchiolitis offer limited improvement in patient outcomes. Methodological shortcomings include that the guidelines provide no specific thresholds for ED decisions to admit or to discharge, have an insufficient level of detail, and do not account for differences in patient and illness characteristics including co-morbidities. Predictive models are frequently used to complement clinical guidelines, reduce practice variation, and improve clinicians' decision making. Used in real time, predictive models can present objective criteria supported by historical data for an individualized disease management plan and guide admission decisions. However, existing predictive models for ED patients with bronchiolitis have limitations, including low accuracy and the assumption that the actual ED disposition decision was appropriate. To date, no operational definition of appropriate admission exists. No model has been built based on appropriate admissions, which include both actual admissions that were necessary and actual ED discharges that were unsafe. The
Chokengarmwong, Nalin; Yeh, Daniel Dante; Chang, Yuchiao; Ortiz, Luis Alfonso; Kaafarani, Haytham M A; Fagenholz, Peter; King, David R; DeMoya, Marc; Butler, Kathryn; Lee, Jarone; Velmahos, George; Januzzi, James Louis; Lee-Lewandrowski, Elizabeth; Lewandrowski, Kent
New onset atrial fibrillation (AF) in critically ill surgical patients is associated with significant morbidity and increased mortality. N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is released by cardiomyocytes in response to stress and may predict AF development after surgery. We hypothesized that elevated NT-proBNP level at surgical intensive care unit (ICU) admission predicts AF development in a general surgical and trauma population. From July to October 2015, NT-proBNP concentrations were measured at ICU admission. Abnormal NT-proBNP concentrations were defined by age-adjusted cut-offs. We examined the relationship between the development of AF and demographics, clinical variables, and NT-proBNP level using univariate analysis and a multivariable logistic regression model. Three hundred eighty-seven subjects were included in the cohort, none of whom were in AF at ICU admission. The median age was 63 years (52-73 years), and 40.3% were women. The risk of developing AF was higher for abnormal versus normal NT-proBNP (22% vs. 4%; p < 0.0001). Using optimal derived cutoffs (regardless of age), the risk of developing AF was 2% for NT-proBNP less than 600 ng/L, 15% for NT-proBNP of 600 ng/L to 1,999 ng/L, and 27% for NT-proBNP of 2,000 ng/L or greater. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified three independent predictors for new-onset AF: age, older than 70 years (odds ratio [OR], 3.7, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-9.3), history of AF (OR, 25.3; 95% CI, 9.6-67.0), and NT-proBNP of 600 or greater (OR, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.3-14.2). When none or only one predictor was present, AF incidence was less than 1%. When all three predictors were present, AF incidence was 66%. For subjects 70 years or older but no history of AF, AF incidence was 12.8% when NT-proBNP was 600 or greater compared with 0% when NT-proBNP was less than 600. For subjects younger than 70 years with a history of AF, AF incidence was 44.4% when NT-proBNP was 600 or higher compared to 0
Speiser, Jaime Lynn; Lee, William M; Karvellas, Constantine J
Assessing prognosis for acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure (APAP-ALF) patients often presents significant challenges. King's College (KCC) has been validated on hospital admission, but little has been published on later phases of illness. We aimed to improve determinations of prognosis both at the time of and following admission for APAP-ALF using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) models. CART models were applied to US ALFSG registry data to predict 21-day death or liver transplant early (on admission) and post-admission (days 3-7) for 803 APAP-ALF patients enrolled 01/1998-09/2013. Accuracy in prediction of outcome (AC), sensitivity (SN), specificity (SP), and area under receiver-operating curve (AUROC) were compared between 3 models: KCC (INR, creatinine, coma grade, pH), CART analysis using only KCC variables (KCC-CART) and a CART model using new variables (NEW-CART). Traditional KCC yielded 69% AC, 90% SP, 27% SN, and 0.58 AUROC on admission, with similar performance post-admission. KCC-CART at admission offered predictive 66% AC, 65% SP, 67% SN, and 0.74 AUROC. Post-admission, KCC-CART had predictive 82% AC, 86% SP, 46% SN and 0.81 AUROC. NEW-CART models using MELD (Model for end stage liver disease), lactate and mechanical ventilation on admission yielded predictive 72% AC, 71% SP, 77% SN and AUROC 0.79. For later stages, NEW-CART (MELD, lactate, coma grade) offered predictive AC 86%, SP 91%, SN 46%, AUROC 0.73. CARTs offer simple prognostic models for APAP-ALF patients, which have higher AUROC and SN than KCC, with similar AC and negligibly worse SP. Admission and post-admission predictions were developed. • Prognostication in acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure (APAP-ALF) is challenging beyond admission • Little has been published regarding the use of King's College Criteria (KCC) beyond admission and KCC has shown limited sensitivity in subsequent studies • Classification and Regression Tree (CART) methodology allows the
Cameron, Allan; Rodgers, Kenneth; Ireland, Alastair; Jamdar, Ravi; McKay, Gerard A
To create and validate a simple clinical score to estimate the probability of admission at the time of triage. This was a multicentre, retrospective, cross-sectional study of triage records for all unscheduled adult attendances in North Glasgow over 2 years. Clinical variables that had significant associations with admission on logistic regression were entered into a mixed-effects multiple logistic model. This provided weightings for the score, which was then simplified and tested on a separate validation group by receiving operator characteristic (ROC) analysis and goodness-of-fit tests. 215 231 presentations were used for model derivation and 107 615 for validation. Variables in the final model showing clinically and statistically significant associations with admission were: triage category, age, National Early Warning Score (NEWS), arrival by ambulance, referral source and admission within the last year. The resulting 6-variable score showed excellent admission/discharge discrimination (area under ROC curve 0.8774, 95% CI 0.8752 to 0.8796). Higher scores also predicted early returns for those who were discharged: the odds of subsequent admission within 28 days doubled for every 7-point increase (log odds=+0.0933 per point, p<0.0001). This simple, 6-variable score accurately estimates the probability of admission purely from triage information. Most patients could accurately be assigned to 'admission likely', 'admission unlikely', 'admission very unlikely' etc., by setting appropriate cut-offs. This could have uses in patient streaming, bed management and decision support. It also has the potential to control for demographics when comparing performance over time or between departments. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.
Golmon, Melton E.; Berry, Charles A.
New Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) scores and undergraduate academic achievement were examined for their validity in predicting the performance of two select student populations at Northwestern University Medical School. The data support the hypothesis that New MCAT scores possess substantial predictive validity. (Author/MLW)
Lehmann, Andreas C.
Entrance examinations and auditions are common admission procedures for college music programs, yet few researchers have attempted to look at the long-term predictive validity of such selection processes. In this study, archival data from 93 student records of a German music academy were used to predict development of musicianship skills over the…
Siu, Eric; Reiter, Harold I.
Admissions committees and researchers around the globe have used diligence and imagination to develop and implement various screening measures with the ultimate goal of predicting future clinical and professional performance. What works for predicting future job performance in the human resources world and in most of the academic world may not,…
Sanford, Timothy R.
The way that the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, has tried to depoliticize minority admissions through the use of predicted graduation equations that are race specific is examined. Multiple regression and discriminant analyses were used with nine independent variables (primarily academic) to predict graduation status of 1974 entering…
Dabaliz, Al-Awwab; Kaadan, Samy; Dabbagh, M Marwan; Barakat, Abdulaziz; Shareef, Mohammad Abrar; Al-Tannir, Mohamad; Obeidat, Akef; Mohamed, Ayman
To examine the predictive validity of pre-admission variables on students' performance in a medical school in Saudi Arabia. In this retrospective study, we collected admission and college performance data for 737 students in preclinical and clinical years. Data included high school scores and other standardized test scores, such as those of the National Achievement Test and the General Aptitude Test. Additionally, we included the scores of the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) and the International English Language Testing System (IELTS) exams. Those datasets were then compared with college performance indicators, namely the cumulative Grade Point Average (cGPA) and progress test, using multivariate linear regression analysis. In preclinical years, both the National Achievement Test (p=0.04, B=0.08) and TOEFL (p=0.017, B=0.01) scores were positive predictors of cGPA, whereas the General Aptitude Test (p=0.048, B=-0.05) negatively predicted cGPA. Moreover, none of the pre-admission variables were predictive of progress test performance in the same group. On the other hand, none of the pre-admission variables were predictive of cGPA in clinical years. Overall, cGPA strongly predict-ed students' progress test performance (p<0.001 and B=19.02). Only the National Achievement Test and TOEFL significantly predicted performance in preclinical years. However, these variables do not predict progress test performance, meaning that they do not predict the functional knowledge reflected in the progress test. We report various strengths and deficiencies in the current medical college admission criteria, and call for employing more sensitive and valid ones that predict student performance and functional knowledge, especially in the clinical years.
Dabaliz, Al-Awwab; Kaadan, Samy; Dabbagh, M. Marwan; Barakat, Abdulaziz; Shareef, Mohammad Abrar; Al-Tannir, Mohamad; Obeidat, Akef
Objectives To examine the predictive validity of pre-admission variables on students’ performance in a medical school in Saudi Arabia. Methods In this retrospective study, we collected admission and college performance data for 737 students in preclinical and clinical years. Data included high school scores and other standardized test scores, such as those of the National Achievement Test and the General Aptitude Test. Additionally, we included the scores of the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) and the International English Language Testing System (IELTS) exams. Those datasets were then compared with college performance indicators, namely the cumulative Grade Point Average (cGPA) and progress test, using multivariate linear regression analysis. Results In preclinical years, both the National Achievement Test (p=0.04, B=0.08) and TOEFL (p=0.017, B=0.01) scores were positive predictors of cGPA, whereas the General Aptitude Test (p=0.048, B=-0.05) negatively predicted cGPA. Moreover, none of the pre-admission variables were predictive of progress test performance in the same group. On the other hand, none of the pre-admission variables were predictive of cGPA in clinical years. Overall, cGPA strongly predict-ed students’ progress test performance (p<0.001 and B=19.02). Conclusions Only the National Achievement Test and TOEFL significantly predicted performance in preclinical years. However, these variables do not predict progress test performance, meaning that they do not predict the functional knowledge reflected in the progress test. We report various strengths and deficiencies in the current medical college admission criteria, and call for employing more sensitive and valid ones that predict student performance and functional knowledge, especially in the clinical years. PMID:29176032
Sesodia, Sanjay; Molnar, David; Shaw, Graham P
This study examined the predictive ability of educational background and demographic variables, available at the admission stage, to identify applicants who will graduate in 4 years from podiatric medical school. A logistic regression model was used to identify two predictors of 4-year graduation: age at matriculation and total Medical College Admission Test score. The model was cross-validated using a second independent sample from the same population. Cross-validation gives greater confidence that the results could be more generally applied. Total Medical College Admission Test score was the strongest predictor of 4-year graduation, with age at matriculation being a statistically significant but weaker predictor. Despite the model's capacity to predict 4-year graduation better than random assignment, a sufficient amount of error in prediction remained, suggesting that important predictors are missing from the model. Furthermore, the high rate of false-positives makes it inappropriate to use age and Medical College Admission Test score as admission screens in an attempt to eliminate attrition by not accepting at-risk students.
Hentzien, Maxime; Mestrallet, Stéphanie; Halin, Pascale; Pannet, Laure-Anne; Lebrun, Delphine; Dramé, Moustapha; Bani-Sadr, Firouzé; Galempoix, Jean-Marc; Strady, Christophe; Reynes, Jean-Marc; Penalba, Christian; Servettaz, Amélie
We conducted a multicenter, retrospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with serologically proven nephropathia epidemica (NE) living in Ardennes Department, France, during 2000-2014 to develop a bioclinical test predictive of severe disease. Among 205 patients, 45 (22.0%) had severe NE. We found the following factors predictive of severe NE: nephrotoxic drug exposure (p = 0.005, point value 10); visual disorders (p = 0.02, point value 8); microscopic or macroscopic hematuria (p = 0.04, point value 7); leukocyte count >10 × 10 9 cells/L (p = 0.01, point value 9); and thrombocytopenia <90 × 10 9 /L (p = 0.003, point value 11). When point values for each factor were summed, we found a score of <10 identified low-risk patients (3.3% had severe disease), and a score >20 identified high-risk patients (45.3% had severe disease). If validated in future studies, this test could be used to stratify patients by severity in research studies and in clinical practice.
McIntyre, Lauralyn; Fergusson, Dean; Turgeon, Alexis; dos Santos, Marlise P.; Lum, Cheemun; Chassé, Michaël; Sinclair, John; Forster, Alan; van Walraven, Carl
Objective: To create an accurate prediction model using variables collected in widely available health administrative data records to identify hospitalizations for primary subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods: A previously established complete cohort of consecutive primary SAH patients was combined with a random sample of control hospitalizations. Chi-square recursive partitioning was used to derive and internally validate a model to predict the probability that a patient had primary SAH (due to aneurysm or arteriovenous malformation) using health administrative data. Results: A total of 10,322 hospitalizations with 631 having primary SAH (6.1%) were included in the study (5,122 derivation, 5,200 validation). In the validation patients, our recursive partitioning algorithm had a sensitivity of 96.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 93.9–98.0), a specificity of 99.8% (95% CI 99.6–99.9), and a positive likelihood ratio of 483 (95% CI 254–879). In this population, patients meeting criteria for the algorithm had a probability of 45% of truly having primary SAH. Conclusions: Routinely collected health administrative data can be used to accurately identify hospitalized patients with a high probability of having a primary SAH. This algorithm may allow, upon validation, an easy and accurate method to create validated cohorts of primary SAH from either ruptured aneurysm or arteriovenous malformation. PMID:27629096
Background Thousands of children experience cardiac arrest events every year in pediatric intensive care units. Most of these children die. Cardiac arrest prediction tools are used as part of medical emergency team evaluations to identify patients in standard hospital beds that are at high risk for cardiac arrest. There are no models to predict cardiac arrest in pediatric intensive care units though, where the risk of an arrest is 10 times higher than for standard hospital beds. Current tools are based on a multivariable approach that does not characterize deterioration, which often precedes cardiac arrests. Characterizing deterioration requires a time series approach. The purpose of this study is to propose a method that will allow for time series data to be used in clinical prediction models. Successful implementation of these methods has the potential to bring arrest prediction to the pediatric intensive care environment, possibly allowing for interventions that can save lives and prevent disabilities. Methods We reviewed prediction models from nonclinical domains that employ time series data, and identified the steps that are necessary for building predictive models using time series clinical data. We illustrate the method by applying it to the specific case of building a predictive model for cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Results Time course analysis studies from genomic analysis provided a modeling template that was compatible with the steps required to develop a model from clinical time series data. The steps include: 1) selecting candidate variables; 2) specifying measurement parameters; 3) defining data format; 4) defining time window duration and resolution; 5) calculating latent variables for candidate variables not directly measured; 6) calculating time series features as latent variables; 7) creating data subsets to measure model performance effects attributable to various classes of candidate variables; 8) reducing the number of
Kennedy, Curtis E; Turley, James P
Thousands of children experience cardiac arrest events every year in pediatric intensive care units. Most of these children die. Cardiac arrest prediction tools are used as part of medical emergency team evaluations to identify patients in standard hospital beds that are at high risk for cardiac arrest. There are no models to predict cardiac arrest in pediatric intensive care units though, where the risk of an arrest is 10 times higher than for standard hospital beds. Current tools are based on a multivariable approach that does not characterize deterioration, which often precedes cardiac arrests. Characterizing deterioration requires a time series approach. The purpose of this study is to propose a method that will allow for time series data to be used in clinical prediction models. Successful implementation of these methods has the potential to bring arrest prediction to the pediatric intensive care environment, possibly allowing for interventions that can save lives and prevent disabilities. We reviewed prediction models from nonclinical domains that employ time series data, and identified the steps that are necessary for building predictive models using time series clinical data. We illustrate the method by applying it to the specific case of building a predictive model for cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Time course analysis studies from genomic analysis provided a modeling template that was compatible with the steps required to develop a model from clinical time series data. The steps include: 1) selecting candidate variables; 2) specifying measurement parameters; 3) defining data format; 4) defining time window duration and resolution; 5) calculating latent variables for candidate variables not directly measured; 6) calculating time series features as latent variables; 7) creating data subsets to measure model performance effects attributable to various classes of candidate variables; 8) reducing the number of candidate features; 9
Choudhary, Gaurav; Jankowich, Matthew; Wu, Wen-Chih
Although elevated pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) is associated with heart failure (HF), whether PASP measurement can help predict future HF admissions is not known, especially in African Americans who are at increased risk for HF. We hypothesized that elevated PASP is associated with increased risk of HF admission and improves HF prediction in African American population. We conducted a longitudinal analysis using the Jackson Heart Study cohort (n=3125; 32.2% men) with baseline echocardiography-derived PASP and follow-up for HF admissions. Hazard ratio for HF admission was estimated using Cox proportional hazard model adjusted for variables in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Community (ARIC) HF prediction model. During a median follow-up of 3.46 years, 3.42% of the cohort was admitted for HF. Subjects with HF had a higher PASP (35.6±11.4 versus 27.6±6.9 mm Hg; P<0.001). The hazard of HF admission increased with higher baseline PASP (adjusted hazard ratio per 10 mm Hg increase in PASP: 2.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.67-2.48; adjusted hazard ratio for highest [≥33 mm Hg] versus lowest quartile [<24 mm Hg] of PASP: 2.69; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-5.06) and remained significant irrespective of history of HF or preserved/reduced ejection fraction. Addition of PASP to the ARIC model resulted in a significant improvement in model discrimination (area under the curve=0.82 before versus 0.84 after; P=0.03) and improved net reclassification index (11-15%) using PASP as a continuous or dichotomous (cutoff=33 mm Hg) variable. Elevated PASP predicts HF admissions in African Americans and may aid in early identification of at-risk subjects for aggressive risk factor modification. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.
Kaufman, Elinore J.; Wiebe, Douglas J.; Martin, Niels D.; Pascual, Jose L.; Reilly, Patrick M.; Holena, Daniel N.
Background While trauma patients are frequently cared for in the ICU, admission triage criteria are unclear and may vary among providers and institutions. The benefits of close monitoring must be weighed against the economic and opportunity costs of an ICU admission. Materials and Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients treated for blunt splenic injuries at 30 level I and II Pennsylvania trauma centers, 2011–2014. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess the relationship between ICU admission and mortality, adjusting for patient characteristics, injury characteristics, and physiology. We calculated center-level observed-to-expected ratios for ICU utilization and mortality and evaluated correlations with Spearman’s rho. We compared the proportion of patients receiving critical care procedures, such as mechanical ventilation or central line placement, between high- and low-ICU-utilization centers. Results Of 2,587 patients with blunt splenic injuries, 63.9% (1,654) were admitted to the ICU. Median injury severity score (ISS) was 17 overall, 13 for non-ICU patients and 17 for ICU patients (p < 0.001). In multivariable logistic regression, ICU admission was not significantly associated with mortality. Center-level risk-adjusted ICU admission rates ranged from 17.9% to 87.3%. Risk-adjusted mortality rates ranged from 1.2% to 9.6%. There was no correlation between O:E ratios for ICU utilization and mortality (rs = −0.2595, p=0.2103). Proportionately fewer ICU patients at high-utilization centers received critical care procedures than at low-utilization centers. Conclusions Risk-adjusted ICU utilization rates for splenic trauma varied widely among trauma centers, with no clear relationship to mortality. Standardizing ICU admission criteria could improve resource utilization without increasing mortality. PMID:27363642
Case mix, outcome and activity for patients with severe acute kidney injury during the first 24 hours after admission to an adult, general critical care unit: application of predictive models from a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database
Kolhe, Nitin V; Stevens, Paul E; Crowe, Alex V; Lipkin, Graham W; Harrison, David A
Introduction This study pools data from the UK Intensive Care National Audit and Research Center (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme (CMP) to evaluate the case mix, outcome and activity for 17,326 patients with severe acute kidney injury (AKI) occurring during the first 24 hours of admission to intensive care units (ICU). Methods Severe AKI admissions (defined as serum creatinine ≥300 μmol/l and/or urea ≥40 mmol/l during the first 24 hours) were extracted from the ICNARC CMP database of 276,326 admissions to UK ICUs from 1995 to 2004. Subgroups of oliguric and nonoliguric AKI were identified by daily urine output. Data on surgical status, survival and length of stay were also collected. Severity of illness scores and mortality prediction models were compared (UK Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation [APACHE] II, Stuivenberg Hospital Acute Renal Failure [SHARF] T0, SHARF II0 and the Mehta model). Results Severe AKI occurred in 17,326 out of 276,731 admissions (6.3%). The source of admission was nonsurgical in 83.7%. Sepsis was present in 47.3% and AKI was nonoliguric in 63.9% of cases. Admission to ICU with severe AKI accounted for 9.3% of all ICU bed-days. Oliguric AKI was associated with longer length of stay for survivors and shorter length of stay for nonsurvivors compared with nonoliguric AKI. Oliguric AKI was associated with significantly greater ICU and hospital mortality (55.8% and 77.3%, respectively) compared with nonoliguric AKI (33.4% and 49.3%, respectively). Surgery during the 1 week before admission or during the first week in the CMP unit was associated with decreased odds of mortality. UK APACHE II and the Mehta scores under-predicted the number of deaths, whereas SHARF T0 and SHARF II0 over-predicted the number of deaths. Conclusions Severe AKI accounts for over 9% of all bed-days in adult, general ICUs, representing a considerable drain on resources. Although nonoliguric AKI continues to confer a survival benefit, overall survival from AKI
Fischer, Franziska T.; Schult, Johannes; Hell, Benedikt
This is the first meta-analysis that investigates the differential prediction of undergraduate and graduate college admission tests for women and men. Findings on 130 independent samples representing 493,048 students are summarized. The underprediction of women's academic performance (d = 0.14) and the overprediction of men's academic performance…
Caroline, Jan D.; And Others
The results of a predictive validity study of the new Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) using criteria from the clinical years of undergraduate medical education are discussed. The criteria included course grades and faculty ratings of clerks in internal medicine, surgery, obstetrics and gynecology, pediatrics, and psychiatry. (Author/MLW)
Cullen, Thomas J.; And Others
The predictive validity of the new Medical College Admission Test as it relates to end-of-quarter examinations in anatomy, histology, physiology, biochemistry, and "ages of man" is presented. Results indicate that the Science Knowledge assessment areas of chemistry and physics and the Science Problems subtest were most useful in…
Temple, Michael W; Lehmann, Christoph U; Fabbri, Daniel
Discharging patients from the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) can be delayed for non-medical reasons including the procurement of home medical equipment, parental education, and the need for children's services. We previously created a model to identify patients that will be medically ready for discharge in the subsequent 2-10 days. In this study we use Natural Language Processing to improve upon that model and discern why the model performed poorly on certain patients. We retrospectively examined the text of the Assessment and Plan section from daily progress notes of 4,693 patients (103,206 patient-days) from the NICU of a large, academic children's hospital. A matrix was constructed using words from NICU notes (single words and bigrams) to train a supervised machine learning algorithm to determine the most important words differentiating poorly performing patients compared to well performing patients in our original discharge prediction model. NLP using a bag of words (BOW) analysis revealed several cohorts that performed poorly in our original model. These included patients with surgical diagnoses, pulmonary hypertension, retinopathy of prematurity, and psychosocial issues. The BOW approach aided in cohort discovery and will allow further refinement of our original discharge model prediction. Adequately identifying patients discharged home on g-tube feeds alone could improve the AUC of our original model by 0.02. Additionally, this approach identified social issues as a major cause for delayed discharge. A BOW analysis provides a method to improve and refine our NICU discharge prediction model and could potentially avoid over 900 (0.9%) hospital days.
Hu, Danqing; Huang, Zhengxing; Chan, Tak-Ming; Dong, Wei; Lu, Xudong; Duan, Huilong
Background: Clinical major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) prediction of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is important for a number of applications including physician decision support, quality of care assessment, and efficient healthcare service delivery on ACS patients. Admission records, as typical media to contain clinical information of patients at the early stage of their hospitalizations, provide significant potential to be explored for MACE prediction in a proactive manner. Methods: We propose a hybrid approach for MACE prediction by utilizing a large volume of admission records. Firstly, both a rule-based medical language processing method and a machine learning method (i.e., Conditional Random Fields (CRFs)) are developed to extract essential patient features from unstructured admission records. After that, state-of-the-art supervised machine learning algorithms are applied to construct MACE prediction models from data. Results: We comparatively evaluate the performance of the proposed approach on a real clinical dataset consisting of 2930 ACS patient samples collected from a Chinese hospital. Our best model achieved 72% AUC in MACE prediction. In comparison of the performance between our models and two well-known ACS risk score tools, i.e., GRACE and TIMI, our learned models obtain better performances with a significant margin. Conclusions: Experimental results reveal that our approach can obtain competitive performance in MACE prediction. The comparison of classifiers indicates the proposed approach has a competitive generality with datasets extracted by different feature extraction methods. Furthermore, our MACE prediction model obtained a significant improvement by comparison with both GRACE and TIMI. It indicates that using admission records can effectively provide MACE prediction service for ACS patients at the early stage of their hospitalizations. PMID:27649220
Kassomenos, P.; Papaloukas, C.; Petrakis, M.; Karakitsios, S.
The contribution of air pollution on hospital admissions due to respiratory and heart diseases is a major issue in the health-environmental perspective. In the present study, an attempt was made to run down the relationships between air pollution levels and meteorological indexes, and corresponding hospital admissions in Athens, Greece. The available data referred to a period of eight years (1992-2000) including the daily number of hospital admissions due to respiratory and heart diseases, hourly mean concentrations of CO, NO 2, SO 2, O 3 and particulates in several monitoring stations, as well as, meteorological data (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed/direction). The relations among the above data were studied through widely used statistical techniques (multivariate stepwise analyses) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Both techniques revealed that elevated particulate concentrations are the dominant parameter related to hospital admissions (an increase of 10 μg m -3 leads to an increase of 10.2% in the number of admissions), followed by O 3 and the rest of the pollutants (CO, NO 2 and SO 2). Meteorological parameters also play a decisive role in the formation of air pollutant levels affecting public health. Consequently, increased/decreased daily hospital admissions are related to specific types of meteorological conditions that favor/do not favor the accumulation of pollutants in an urban complex. In general, the role of meteorological factors seems to be underestimated by stepwise analyses, while ANNs attribute to them a more important role. Comparison of the two models revealed that ANN adaptation in complicate environmental issues presents improved modeling results compared to a regression technique. Furthermore, the ANN technique provides a reliable model for the prediction of the daily hospital admissions based on air quality data and meteorological indices, undoubtedly useful for regulatory purposes.
Allyn, Jérôme; Vandroux, David; Jabot, Julien; Brulliard, Caroline; Galliot, Richard; Tabatchnik, Xavier; Combe, Patrice; Martinet, Olivier; Allou, Nicolas
The purpose was to determine prognosis of patients presenting extreme acidosis (pH <7) on admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and to identify mortality risk factors. We retrospectively analyzed all patients who presented with extreme acidosis within 24 hours of admission to a polyvalent ICU in a university hospital between January 2011 and July 2013. Multivariate analysis and survival analysis were used. Among the 2156 patients admitted, 77 patients (3.6%) presented extreme acidosis. Thirty (39%) patients suffered cardiac arrest before admission. Although the mortality rate predicted by severity score was 93.6%, death occurred in 52 cases (67.5%) in a median delay of 13 (5-27) hours. Mortality rate depended on reason for admission, varying between 22% for cases linked to diabetes mellitus and 100% for cases of mesenteric infarction (P = .002), cardiac arrest before admission (P < .001), type of lactic acidosis (P = .007), high Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (P = .008), and low serum creatinine (P = .012). Patients with extreme acidosis on admission to ICU have a less severe than expected prognosis. Whereas mortality is almost 100% in cases of cardiac arrest before admission, mortality is much lower in the absence of cardiac arrest before admission, which justifies aggressive ICU therapies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Muratov, Eugene; Lewis, Margaret; Fourches, Denis; Tropsha, Alexander; Cox, Wendy C
Objective. To develop predictive computational models forecasting the academic performance of students in the didactic-rich portion of a doctor of pharmacy (PharmD) curriculum as admission-assisting tools. Methods. All PharmD candidates over three admission cycles were divided into two groups: those who completed the PharmD program with a GPA ≥ 3; and the remaining candidates. Random Forest machine learning technique was used to develop a binary classification model based on 11 pre-admission parameters. Results. Robust and externally predictive models were developed that had particularly high overall accuracy of 77% for candidates with high or low academic performance. These multivariate models were highly accurate in predicting these groups to those obtained using undergraduate GPA and composite PCAT scores only. Conclusion. The models developed in this study can be used to improve the admission process as preliminary filters and thus quickly identify candidates who are likely to be successful in the PharmD curriculum.
For patients with terminal chronic illness, does more face-to-face time with a healthcare provider decrease aggressive end-of-life (EOL) care such as ICU admission, feeding tube placement, CPR, or intubation?
Seaberg, Preston; Hamm, Robert M.; McCarthy, Laine H.
Clinical Question For patients with terminal chronic illness, does more face-to-face time with a healthcare provider decrease aggressive end-of-life (EOL) care such as ICU admission, feeding tube placement, CPR, or intubation? Answer Inconclusive. Existing evidence does not provide a conclusive answer to this particular question. While multiple prospective, randomized, controlled trials demonstrate an association between increased patient-provider contact time and decreased aggressive EOL care, interventions in those studies contain multiple confounding elements that preclude isolation of the time factor from the other elements in the interventions. There is a need for research focusing on physician-patient communication time and EOL care. Level of Evidence for the Answer A Search Terms Terminal care, palliative care, terminal illness, communication, patient-provider relations, time factors, life support care, resuscitation orders, enteral nutrition Inclusion Criteria Systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and comparative studies published between 2008 and the current date comparing EOL care or EOL care preferences of patients who spend more face-to-face time with a healthcare provider to those of patients who spend less face-to-face time with a healthcare provider. Exclusion Criteria Studies that do not report the primary outcome of interest (EOL care or EOL care preferences) or that do not measure discussion time or provide interventions that include face-to-face discussion. PMID:25796765
Porter, J; Galfano, V J
The purpose of this study was to determine to what extent admission criteria predict graduate school and career performance. The study also analyzed which objective and subjective criteria served as the best predictors. MHA graduates of the University of Minnesota from 1974 to 1977 were surveyed to assess career performance. Student files served as the data base on admission criteria and program performance. Career performance was measured by four variables: total compensation, satisfaction, fiscal responsibility, and level of authority. High levels of MHA program performance were associated with women who had high undergraduate GPAs from highly selective undergraduate colleges, were undergraduate business majors, and participated in extracurricular activities. High levels of compensation were associated with relatively low undergraduate GPAs, high levels of participation in undergraduate extracurricular activities, and being single at admission to graduate school. Admission to MHA programs should be based upon both objective and subjective criteria. Emphasis should be placed upon the selection process for MHA students since admission criteria are shown to explain 30 percent of the variability in graduate program performance, and as much as 65 percent of the variance in level of position authority.
Fernandez, Rafael; Serrano, Jose Manuel; Umaran, Isabel; Abizanda, Ricard; Carrillo, Andres; Lopez-Pueyo, Maria Jesus; Rascado, Pedro; Balerdi, Begoña; Suberviola, Borja; Hernandez, Gonzalo
Tools for predicting post-ICU patients' outcomes are scarce. A single-center study showed that the Sabadell score classified patients into four groups with clear-cut differences in ward mortality. To validate the Sabadell score using a prospective multicenter approach. Thirty-one ICUs in Spain. All patients admitted in the 3-month study period. We recorded variables at ICU admission (age, sex, severity of illness, and do-not-resuscitate orders), during the ICU stay (ICU-specific treatments, ICU-acquired infection, and acute renal failure), and at ICU discharge (Sabadell score). Statistical analyses included one-way ANOVA and multiple regression analysis with ward mortality as the dependent variable. We admitted 4,132 patients (mean age 61.5 +/- 16.7 years) with mean predicted mortality of 23.8 +/- 22.7%; 545 patients (13%) died in the ICU and 3,587 (87%) were discharged to the ward. Overall ward mortality was 6.7%; ward mortality was 1.5% (36/2,422) in patients with score 0 (good prognosis), 9% (64/725) in patients with score 1 (long-term poor prognosis), 23% (79/341) in patients with score 2 (short-term poor prognosis), and 64% (63/99) in patients with score 3 (expected hospital death). Variables associated with ward mortality in the multivariate analysis were predicted risk of death (OR 1.016), ICU readmission (OR 5.9), Sabadell score 1 (OR 4.7), Sabadell score 2 (OR 15.7), and Sabadell score 3 (OR 107.2). We confirm the ability of the Sabadell score at ICU discharge to define four groups of patients with very different likelihoods of hospital survival.
McManus, I C; Ferguson, Eamonn; Wakeford, Richard; Powis, David; James, David
There has been an increase in the use of pre-admission selection tests for medicine. Such tests need to show good psychometric properties. Here, we use a paper by Emery and Bell [2009. The predictive validity of the Biomedical Admissions Test for pre-clinical examination performance. Med Educ 43:557-564] as a case study to evaluate and comment on the reporting of psychometric data in the field of medical student selection (and the comments apply to many papers in the field). We highlight pitfalls when reliability data are not presented, how simple zero-order associations can lead to inaccurate conclusions about the predictive validity of a test, and how biases need to be explored and reported. We show with BMAT that it is the knowledge part of the test which does all the predictive work. We show that without evidence of incremental validity it is difficult to assess the value of any selection tests for medicine.
Ovesen, Christian; Havsteen, Inger; Rosenbaum, Sverre; Christensen, Hanne
Post-admission hematoma expansion in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) comprises a simultaneous major clinical problem and a possible target for medical intervention. In any case, the ability to predict and observe hematoma expansion is of great clinical importance. We review radiological concepts in predicting and observing post-admission hematoma expansion. Hematoma expansion can be observed within the first 24 h after symptom onset, but predominantly occurs in the early hours. Thus capturing markers of on-going bleeding on imaging techniques could predict hematoma expansion. The spot sign observed on computed tomography angiography is believed to represent on-going bleeding and is to date the most well investigated and reliable radiological predictor of hematoma expansion as well as functional outcome and mortality. On non-contrast CT, the presence of foci of hypoattenuation within the hematoma along with the hematoma-size is reported to be predictive of hematoma expansion and outcome. Because patients tend to arrive earlier to the hospital, a larger fraction of acute ICH-patients must be expected to undergo hematoma expansion. This renders observation and radiological follow-up investigations increasingly relevant. Transcranial duplex sonography has in recent years proven to be able to estimate hematoma volume with good precision and could be a valuable tool in bedside serial observation of acute ICH-patients. Future studies will elucidate, if better prediction and observation of post-admission hematoma expansion can help select patients, who will benefit from hemostatic treatment. PMID:25324825
Introduction The interdependence between endotoxemia, gram negative (GN) bacteremia and mortality has been extensively studied. Underlying patient risk and GN bacteremia types are possible confounders of the relationship. Methods Published studies with ≥10 patients in either ICU or non-ICU settings, endotoxemia detection by limulus assay, reporting mortality proportions and ≥1 GN bacteremia were included. Summary odds ratios (OR) for mortality were derived across all studies by meta-analysis for the following contrasts: sub-groups with either endotoxemia (group three), GN bacteremia (group two) or both (group one) each versus the group with neither detected (group four; reference group). The mortality proportion for group four is the proxy measure of study level risk within L'Abbé plots. Results Thirty-five studies were found. Among nine studies in an ICU setting, the OR for mortality was borderline (OR <2) or non-significantly increased for groups two (GN bacteremia alone) and three (endotoxemia alone) and patient group one (GN bacteremia and endotoxemia co-detected) each versus patient group four (neither endotoxemia nor GN bacteremia detected). The ORs were markedly higher for group one versus group four (OR 6.9; 95% confidence interval (CI), 4.4 -to 11.0 when derived from non-ICU studies. The distributions of Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Escherichia coli bacteremias among groups one versus two are significantly unequal. Conclusions The co-detection of GN bacteremia and endotoxemia is predictive of increased mortality risk versus the detection of neither but only in studies undertaken in a non-ICU setting. Variation in GN bacteremia species types and underlying risk are likely unrecognized confounders in the individual studies. PMID:22871090
Emery, Joanne L; Bell, John F
Some medical courses in the UK have many more applicants than places and almost all applicants have the highest possible previous and predicted examination grades. The BioMedical Admissions Test (BMAT) was designed to assist in the student selection process specifically for a number of 'traditional' medical courses with clear pre-clinical and clinical phases and a strong focus on science teaching in the early years. It is intended to supplement the information provided by examination results, interviews and personal statements. This paper reports on the predictive validity of the BMAT and its predecessor, the Medical and Veterinary Admissions Test. Results from the earliest 4 years of the test (2000-2003) were matched to the pre-clinical examination results of those accepted onto the medical course at the University of Cambridge. Correlation and logistic regression analyses were performed for each cohort. Section 2 of the test ('Scientific Knowledge') correlated more strongly with examination marks than did Section 1 ('Aptitude and Skills'). It also had a stronger relationship with the probability of achieving the highest examination class. The BMAT and its predecessor demonstrate predictive validity for the pre-clinical years of the medical course at the University of Cambridge. The test identifies important differences in skills and knowledge between candidates, not shown by their previous attainment, which predict their examination performance. It is thus a valid source of additional admissions information for medical courses with a strong scientific emphasis when previous attainment is very high.
Light, R Bruce
The ability to diagnose and treat infectious diseases and handle infectious disease outbreaks continues to improve. For the most part, the major plagues of antiquity remain historical footnotes, yet, despite many advances, there is clear evidence that major pandemic illness is always just one outbreak away. In addition to the HIV pandemic, the smaller epidemic outbreaks of Legionnaire's disease, hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, and severe acute respiratory syndrome, among many others, points out the potential risk associated with a lack of preplanning and preparedness. Although pandemic influenza is at the top of the list when discussing possible future major infectious disease outbreaks, the truth is that the identity of the next major pandemic pathogen cannot be predicted with any accuracy. We can only hope that general preparedness and the lessons learned from previous outbreaks suffice.
Background The recommendation from the 2009 World Health Organization guidelines for managing dengue suggests that patients with any warning sign can be hospitalized for observation and management. We evaluated the utility of using warning signs to guide hospital admission and predict disease progression in adults. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study from January 2010 to September 2012. Daily demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected from adult dengue patients. Warning signs were recorded. The proportion of admitted patients using current admission criteria and warning signs was compared. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of warning signs in predicting disease progression were also evaluated. Results Four hundred and ninety-nine patients with confirmed dengue were analyzed. Using warning signs instead of the current admission criteria will lead to a 44% and 31% increase in admission for DHF II-IV and SD cases respectively. The proportion of non-severe dengue cases which were admitted also increased by 32% for non DHF II-IV and 33% for non-SD cases. Absence of any warning signs had a NPV of 91%, 100% and 100% for DHF I-IV, DHF II-IV and SD. Of those who progressed to severe illness, 16.3% had warning signs on the same day while 51.3% had warning signs the day before developing severe illness, respectively. Conclusions Our findings demonstrated that patients without any warning signs can be managed safely with ambulatory care to reduce hospital resource burden. No single warning sign can independently predict disease progression. The window from onset of warning sign to severe illness in most cases was within one day. PMID:24152678
Smith, Heidi A.B.; Gangopadhyay, Maalobeeka; Goben, Christina M.; Jacobowski, Natalie L.; Chestnut, Mary Hamilton; Savage, Shane; Rutherford, Michael T.; Denton, Danica; Thompson, Jennifer L.; Chandrasekhar, Rameela; Acton, Michelle; Newman, Jessica; Noori, Hannah P.; Terrell, Michelle K.; Williams, Stacey R.; Griffith, Katherine; Cooper, Timothy J.; Ely, E. Wesley; Fuchs, D. Catherine; Pandharipande, Pratik P.
RATIONALE and OBJECTIVE Delirium assessments in critically ill infants and young children pose unique challenges due to evolution of cognitive and language skills. The objectives of this study were to determine the validity and reliability of a fundamentally objective and developmentally appropriate delirium assessment tool for critically ill infants and preschool-aged children, and to determine delirium prevalence. DESIGN and SETTING Prospective, observational cohort validation study of the PreSchool Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU (psCAM-ICU) in a tertiary medical center pediatric ICU. PATIENTS Participants aged 6 months to 5 years and admitted to the pediatric ICU regardless of admission diagnosis were enrolled. INTERVENTIONS, MEASUREMENTS and MAIN RESULTS An interdisciplinary team created the psCAM-ICU for pediatric delirium monitoring. To assess validity, patients were independently assessed for delirium daily by the research team using the psCAM-ICU and by a child psychiatrist using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders criteria. Reliability was assessed using blinded, concurrent psCAM-ICU evaluations by research staff. A total of 530-paired delirium assessments were completed among 300 patients, with a median age of 20 months (IQR 11, 37) and 43% requiring mechanical ventilation. The psCAM-ICU demonstrated a specificity of 91% (95%CI 90, 93), sensitivity of 75% (72, 78), negative predictive value of 86% (84, 88), positive predictive value of 84% (81, 87), and a reliability kappa statistic of 0.79 (0.76, 0.83). Delirium prevalence was 44% using the psCAM-ICU and 47% by the reference-rater. The rates of delirium were 53% vs. 56% in patients < 2 years of age and 33% vs. 35% in patients ≥ 2 - 5 years of age using the psCAM-ICU and reference-rater respectively. The short-form psCAM-ICU maintained a high specificity (87%) and sensitivity (78%) in post-hoc analysis. CONCLUSIONS The psCAM-ICU is a highly valid and reliable delirium
Dubberke, Erik R.; Kollef, Marin
Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) management has become more daunting over the past decade because of alarming increases in CDI incidence and severity both in the hospital and in the community. This increase has concomitantly caused significant escalation of the health-care economic burden caused by CDI, and it will likely be translated to increased ICU admission and attributable mortality. Some possible causes for difficulty in management of CDI are as follows: (1) inability to predict and prevent development of severe/complicated or relapsing CDI in patients who initially present with mild symptoms; (2) lack of a method to determine who would have benefited a priori from initiating vancomycin treatment first instead of treatment with metronidazole; (3) lack of sensitive and specific CDI diagnostics; (4) changing epidemiology of CDI, including the emergence of a hypervirulent, epidemic C difficile strain associated with increased morbidity and mortality; (5) association of certain high-usage nonantimicrobial medications with CDI; and (6) lack of treatment regimens that leave the normal intestinal flora undisturbed while treating the primary infection. The objective of this article is to present current management and prevention guidelines for CDI based on recommendations by the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America and Infectious Diseases Society of America and potential new clinical management strategies on the horizon. PMID:22147824
Stuart, K; Adderley, N J; Marshall, T; Rayman, G; Sitch, A; Manley, S; Ghosh, S; Toulis, K A; Nirantharakumar, K
To explore whether a quantitative approach to identifying hospitalized patients with diabetes at risk of hypoglycaemia would be feasible through incorporation of routine biochemical, haematological and prescription data. A retrospective cross-sectional analysis of all diabetic admissions (n=9584) from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2014 was performed. Hypoglycaemia was defined as a blood glucose level of <4 mmol/l. The prediction model was constructed using multivariable logistic regression, populated by clinically important variables and routine laboratory data. Using a prespecified variable selection strategy, it was shown that the occurrence of inpatient hypoglycaemia could be predicted by a combined model taking into account background medication (type of insulin, use of sulfonylureas), ethnicity (black and Asian), age (≥75 years), type of admission (emergency) and laboratory measurements (estimated GFR, C-reactive protein, sodium and albumin). Receiver-operating curve analysis showed that the area under the curve was 0.733 (95% CI 0.719 to 0.747). The threshold chosen to maximize both sensitivity and specificity was 0.15. The area under the curve obtained from internal validation did not differ from the primary model [0.731 (95% CI 0.717 to 0.746)]. The inclusion of routine biochemical data, available at the time of admission, can add prognostic value to demographic and medication history. The predictive performance of the constructed model indicates potential clinical utility for the identification of patients at risk of hypoglycaemia during their inpatient stay. © 2017 Diabetes UK.
Development of the Combined Assessment of Risk Encountered in Surgery (CARES) surgical risk calculator for prediction of postsurgical mortality and need for intensive care unit admission risk: a single-center retrospective study.
Chan, Diana Xin Hui; Sim, Yilin Eileen; Chan, Yiong Huak; Poopalalingam, Ruban; Abdullah, Hairil Rizal
Accurate surgical risk prediction is paramount in clinical shared decision making. Existing risk calculators have limited value in local practice due to lack of validation, complexities and inclusion of non-routine variables. We aim to develop a simple, locally derived and validated surgical risk calculator predicting 30-day postsurgical mortality and need for intensive care unit (ICU) stay (>24 hours) based on routinely collected preoperative variables. We postulate that accuracy of a clinical history-based scoring tool could be improved by including readily available investigations, such as haemoglobin level and red cell distribution width. Electronic medical records of 90 785 patients, who underwent non-cardiac and non-neuro surgery between 1 January 2012 and 31 October 2016 in Singapore General Hospital, were retrospectively analysed. Patient demographics, comorbidities, laboratory results, surgical priority and surgical risk were collected. Outcome measures were death within 30 days after surgery and ICU admission. After excluding patients with missing data, the final data set consisted of 79 914 cases, which was divided randomly into derivation (70%) and validation cohort (30%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to construct a single model predicting both outcomes using Odds Ratio (OR) of the risk variables. The ORs were then assigned ranks, which were subsequently used to construct the calculator. Observed mortality was 0.6%. The Combined Assessment of Risk Encountered in Surgery (CARES) surgical risk calculator, consisting of nine variables, was constructed. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) in the derivation and validation cohorts for mortality were 0.934 (0.917-0.950) and 0.934 (0.912-0.956), respectively, while the AUROC for ICU admission was 0.863 (0.848-0.878) and 0.837 (0.808-0.868), respectively. CARES also performed better than the American Society of Anaesthesiologists-Physical Status classification in
Zhang, Xingyu; Kim, Joyce; Patzer, Rachel E; Pitts, Stephen R; Patzer, Aaron; Schrager, Justin D
To describe and compare logistic regression and neural network modeling strategies to predict hospital admission or transfer following initial presentation to Emergency Department (ED) triage with and without the addition of natural language processing elements. Using data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS), a cross-sectional probability sample of United States EDs from 2012 and 2013 survey years, we developed several predictive models with the outcome being admission to the hospital or transfer vs. discharge home. We included patient characteristics immediately available after the patient has presented to the ED and undergone a triage process. We used this information to construct logistic regression (LR) and multilayer neural network models (MLNN) which included natural language processing (NLP) and principal component analysis from the patient's reason for visit. Ten-fold cross validation was used to test the predictive capacity of each model and receiver operating curves (AUC) were then calculated for each model. Of the 47,200 ED visits from 642 hospitals, 6,335 (13.42%) resulted in hospital admission (or transfer). A total of 48 principal components were extracted by NLP from the reason for visit fields, which explained 75% of the overall variance for hospitalization. In the model including only structured variables, the AUC was 0.824 (95% CI 0.818-0.830) for logistic regression and 0.823 (95% CI 0.817-0.829) for MLNN. Models including only free-text information generated AUC of 0.742 (95% CI 0.731- 0.753) for logistic regression and 0.753 (95% CI 0.742-0.764) for MLNN. When both structured variables and free text variables were included, the AUC reached 0.846 (95% CI 0.839-0.853) for logistic regression and 0.844 (95% CI 0.836-0.852) for MLNN. The predictive accuracy of hospital admission or transfer for patients who presented to ED triage overall was good, and was improved with the inclusion of free text data from a patient
Shetty, Amith L; Shankar Raju, Savitha Banagar; Hermiz, Arsalan; Vaghasiya, Milan; Vukasovic, Matthew
Discharge-stream emergency short-stay units (ESSU) improve ED and hospital efficiency. Age of patients and time of hospital presentations have been shown to correlate with increasing complexity of care. We aim to determine whether an age and time cut-off could be derived to subsequently improve short-stay unit success rates. We conducted a retrospective audit on 6703 (5522 inclusions) patients admitted to our discharge-stream short-stay unit. Patients were classified as appropriate or inappropriate admissions, and deemed successful if discharged out of the unit within 24 h; and failures if they needed inpatient admission into the hospital. We calculated short-stay unit length of stay for patients in each of these groups. A 15% failure rate was deemed as acceptable key performance indicator (KPI) for our unit. There were 197 out of 4621 (4.3%, 95% CI 3.7-4.9%) patients up to the age of 70 who failed admission to ESSU compared with 67 out of 901 (7.4%, 95% CI 5.9-9.3%, P < 0.01) of patients over the age of 70, reflecting an increased failure rate in geriatric population. When grouped according to times of admission to the ESSU (in-office 06.00-22.00 hours vs out-of-office 22.00-06.00 hours) no significant difference rates in discharge failure (4.7% vs 5.2%, P = 0.46) were noted. Patients >70 years of age have higher rates of failure after admission to discharge-stream ESSU. Although in appropriately selected discharge-stream patients, no age group or time-band of presentation was associated with increased failure rate beyond the stipulated KPI. © 2014 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.
Wischmeyer, Paul E; Puthucheary, Zudin; San Millán, Iñigo; Butz, Daniel; Grocott, Michael P W
We have significantly improved hospital mortality from sepsis and critical illness in last 10 years; however, over this same period we have tripled the number of 'ICU survivors' going to rehabilitation. Furthermore, as up to half the deaths in the first year following ICU admission occur post-ICU discharge, it is unclear how many of these patients ever returned home or a meaningful quality of life. For those who do survive, recent data reveals many 'ICU survivors' will suffer significant functional impairment or post-ICU syndrome (PICS). Thus, new innovative metabolic and exercise interventions to address PICS are urgently needed. These should focus on optimal nutrition and lean body mass (LBM) assessment, targeted nutrition delivery, anabolic/anticatabolic strategies, and utilization of personalized exercise intervention techniques, such as utilized by elite athletes to optimize preparation and recovery from critical care. New data for novel LBM analysis technique such as computerized tomography scan and ultrasound analysis of LBM are available showing objective measures of LBM now becoming more practical for predicting metabolic reserve and effectiveness of nutrition/exercise interventions. 13C-Breath testing is a novel technique under study to predict infection earlier and predict over-feeding and under-feeding to target nutrition delivery. New technologies utilized routinely by athletes such as muscle glycogen ultrasound also show promise. Finally, the role of personalized cardiopulmonary exercise testing to target preoperative exercise optimization and post-ICU recovery are becoming reality. New innovative techniques are demonstrating promise to target recovery from PICS utilizing a combination of objective LBM and metabolic assessment, targeted nutrition interventions, personalized exercise interventions for prehabilitation and post-ICU recovery. These interventions should provide hope that we will soon begin to create more 'survivors' and fewer victim's post-ICU
Tsai, Jaw-Shiun; Chen, Chao-Hsien; Wu, Chih-Hsun; Chiu, Tai-Yuan; Morita, Tatsuya; Chang, Chin-Hao; Hung, Shou-Hung; Lee, Ya-Ping; Chen, Ching-Yu
Consciousness is an important factor of survival prediction in advanced cancer patients. However, effects on survival of changes over time in consciousness in advanced cancer patients have not been fully explored. This study evaluated changes in consciousness after admission to a palliative care unit and their correlation with prognosis in terminal cancer patients. This is a prospective observational study. From a palliative care unit in Taiwan, 531 cancer patients (51.8% male) were recruited. Consciousness status was assessed at admission and one week afterwards and recorded as normal or impaired. The mean age was 65.28±13.59 years, and the average survival time was 23.41±37.69 days. Patients with normal consciousness at admission (n=317) had better survival than those with impaired consciousness at admission (n=214): (17.0 days versus 6.0 days, p<0.001). In the analysis on survival within one week after admission, those with normal consciousness at admission had a higher percentage of survival than the impaired (78.9% versus 44.3%, p<0.001). Patients were further classified into four groups according to consciousness levels: (1) normal at admission and one week afterwards, (2) impaired at admission but normal one week afterwards, (3) normal at admission but impaired one week afterwards, and (4) impaired both at admission and one week afterwards. The former two groups had significantly better survival than the latter two groups: (median survival counted from day 7 after admission), 25.5, 27.0, 7.0, and 7.0 days, respectively. Consciousness levels one week after admission should be integrated into survival prediction in advanced cancer patients.
Grobman, William A.; Lai, Yinglei; Landon, Mark B.; Spong, Catherine Y.; Leveno, Kenneth J.; Rouse, Dwight J.; Varner, Michael W.; Moawad, Atef H.; Simhan, Hyagriv N.; Harper, Margaret; Wapner, Ronald J.; Sorokin, Yoram; Miodovnik, Menachem; Carpenter, Marshall; O'sullivan, Mary J.; Sibai, Baha M.; Langer, Oded; Thorp, John M.; Ramin, Susan M.; Mercer, Brian M.
Objective To construct a predictive model for vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) that combines factors that can be ascertained only as the pregnancy progresses with those known at initiation of prenatal care. Study design Using multivariable modeling, we constructed a predictive model for VBAC that included patient factors known at the initial prenatal visit as well as those that only became evident as the pregancy progressed to the admission for delivery. Results 9616 women were analyzed. The regression equation for VBAC success included multiple factors that could not be known at the first prenatal visit. The area under the curve for this model was significantly greater (P < .001) than that of a model that included only factors available at the first prenatal visit. Conclusion A prediction model for VBAC success that incorporates factors that can be ascertained only as the pregnancy progresses adds to the predictive accuracy of a model that uses only factors available at a first prenatal visit. PMID:19813165
Hanafy, Amr S
Serum-ascites albumin gradient (SAAG) has been used in the classification of ascites for the last 20 years but it has some drawbacks. This study searches for possible correlations between ascitic fluid viscosity and the etiology of ascites, renal impairment, and length of ICU stay. The study was conducted in Zagazig University Hospital, Egypt. It included 240 patients with ascites due to various causes. The patients were divided into two groups: the cirrhotic ascites group, which included 120 patients, and the noncirrhotic ascites group, which included 120 patients. Ascitic patients on medical management with diuretics, antibiotics, paracentesis, and infusion of plasma or albumin were excluded.The laboratory analysis included routine investigations to detect the cause of ascites as well as specific investigations such as ascitic fluid viscosity using a falling ball viscosimeter (microviscosimeter) at 37°C. The mean ascitic viscosity of patients with SAAG at least 1.1 was 1.16±0.56, which was associated with serum creatinine 1.35±0.52 mg/dl and ICU stay of 3.3±1.2 days. In patients with SAAG less than 1.1 g/dl, the mean ascitic viscosity was 2.98±0.87, with serum creatinine 2.1±0.56 mg/dl and ICU stay of 7.1±1.3 days. Ascitic viscosity can discriminate ascites due to portal hypertension from those associated with nonportal hypertension at a cut-off value of 1.65; it can predict renal impairment in hepatic patients at a cut-off of 1.35 and long ICU stay at a cut-off of 1.995 using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Ascitic viscosity measurement is rapid, inexpensive, and requires small sample volumes. Ascitic viscosity can discriminate ascites due to portal hypertension from those associated with nonportal hypertension at a cut-off value of 1.65. It can predict renal impairment in hepatic patients at a cut-off of 1.35 and long ICU stay at a cut-off of 1.995.
Postels, Douglas G; Wu, Xiaoting; Li, Chenxi; Kaplan, Peter W; Seydel, Karl B; Taylor, Terrie E; Kousa, Youssef A; Idro, Richard; Opoka, Robert; John, Chandy C; Birbeck, Gretchen L
Electroencephalography at hospital presentation may offer important insights regarding prognosis that can inform understanding of cerebral malaria (CM) pathophysiology and potentially guide patient selection and risk stratification for future clinical trials. Electroencephalogram (EEG) findings in children with CM in Uganda and Malawi were compared and associations between admission EEG findings and outcome across this diverse population were assessed. Demographic, clinical and admission EEG data from Ugandan and Malawian children admitted from 2009 to 2012 with CM were gathered, and survivors assessed for neurological abnormalities at discharge. 281 children were enrolled (Uganda n = 122, Malawi n = 159). The Malawian population was comprised only of retinopathy positive children (versus 72.5% retinopathy positive in Uganda) and were older (4.2 versus 3.7 years; p = 0.046), had a higher HIV prevalence (9.0 versus 2.8%; p = 0.042), and worse hyperlactataemia (7.4 versus 5.2 mmol/L; p < 0.001) on admission compared to the Ugandan children. EEG findings differed between the two groups in terms of average voltage and frequencies, reactivity, asymmetry, and the presence/absence of sleep architecture. In univariate analyses pooling EEG and outcomes data for both sites, higher average and maximum voltages, faster dominant frequencies, and retained reactivity were associated with survival (all p < 0.05). Focal slowing was associated with death (OR 2.93; 95% CI 1.77-7.30) and a lower average voltage was associated with neurological morbidity in survivors (p = 0.0032). Despite substantial demographic and clinical heterogeneity between subjects in Malawi and Uganda as well as different EEG readers at each site, EEG findings on admission predicted mortality and morbidity. For CM clinical trials aimed at decreasing mortality or morbidity, EEG may be valuable for risk stratification and/or subject selection.
Billings, John; Georghiou, Theo; Blunt, Ian; Bardsley, Martin
Objectives To test the performance of new variants of models to identify people at risk of an emergency hospital admission. We compared (1) the impact of using alternative data sources (hospital inpatient, A&E, outpatient and general practitioner (GP) electronic medical records) (2) the effects of local calibration on the performance of the models and (3) the choice of population denominators. Design Multivariate logistic regressions using person-level data adding each data set sequentially to test value of additional variables and denominators. Setting 5 Primary Care Trusts within England. Participants 1 836 099 people aged 18–95 registered with GPs on 31 July 2009. Main outcome measures Models to predict hospital admission and readmission were compared in terms of the positive predictive value and sensitivity for various risk strata and with the receiver operating curve C statistic. Results The addition of each data set showed moderate improvement in the number of patients identified with little or no loss of positive predictive value. However, even with inclusion of GP electronic medical record information, the algorithms identified only a small number of patients with no emergency hospital admissions in the previous 2 years. The model pooled across all sites performed almost as well as the models calibrated to local data from just one site. Using population denominators from GP registers led to better case finding. Conclusions These models provide a basis for wider application in the National Health Service. Each of the models examined produces reasonably robust performance and offers some predictive value. The addition of more complex data adds some value, but we were unable to conclude that pooled models performed less well than those in individual sites. Choices about model should be linked to the intervention design. Characteristics of patients identified by the algorithms provide useful information in the design/costing of intervention strategies
Aneman, Anders; Frost, Steven A; Parr, Michael J; Hillman, Ken M
To determine the impact of introducing a two-tier system for responding to deteriorating ward patients on ICU admissions after medical emergency team review. Retrospective database review before (2006-2009) and after (2011-2013) the introduction of a two-tier system. Tertiary, university-affiliated hospital. A total of 1,564 ICU admissions. Two-tier rapid response system. The median number of medical emergency team activations/1,000 hospitalizations increased from 22 to 31 (difference [95% CI], 9 [5-10]; p<0.0001) with a decreased rate of medical emergency team activations leading to ICU admission (from median 11 to 8; difference [95% CI], 3 [3-4]; p=0.03). The median proportion of medical emergency team reviews leading to ICU admission increased for those triggered by tachypnoea (from 11% to 15%; difference [95% CI], 4 [3-5]; p<0.0001) and by hypotension (from 27% to 43%; difference [95% CI], 15 [12-19]; p<0.0001) and decreased for those triggered by reduced level of consciousness (from 20% to 17%; difference [95% CI], 3 [2-4]; p<0.0001) and by clinical concern (from 18% to 9%; difference [95% CI], 10 [9-13]; p<0.0001). The proportions of ICU admissions following medical emergency team review did not change significantly for tachycardia, seizure, or cardiorespiratory arrest. The overall ICU mortality for admissions following medical emergency team review for tachypnoea, tachycardia, and clinical concern decreased (from 29% to 9%: difference [95% CI], 20 [11-29]; p<0.0001) but did not change for the other triggers. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation predicted and observed ICU mortality and the proportion of patients dying with a not-for-resuscitation order decreased. The introduction of a two-tier response to clinical deterioration increased ICU admissions triggered by cardiorespiratory criteria, whereas admissions triggered by more subjective criteria decreased. The overall ICU mortality for patients admitted following medical emergency team review
Timsit, J F; Fosse, J P; Troché, G; De Lassence, A; Alberti, C; Garrouste-Orgeas, M; Azoulay, E; Chevret, S; Moine, P; Cohen, Y
In most databases used to build general severity scores the median duration of intensive care unit (ICU) stay is less than 3 days. Consequently, these scores are not the most appropriate tools for measuring prognosis in studies dealing with ICU patients hospitalized for more than 72 h. To develop a new prognostic model based on a general severity score (SAPS II), an organ dysfunction score (LOD) and evolution of both scores during the first 3 days of ICU stay. Prospective multicenter study. Twenty-eight intensive care units (ICUs) in France. A training data-set was created with four ICUs during an 18-month period (893 patients). Seventy percent of the patients were medical (628) aged 66 years. The median SAPS II was 38. The ICU and hospital mortality rates were 22.7% and 30%, respectively. Forty-seven percent (420 patients) were transferred from hospital wards. In this population, the calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square: 37.4, P = 0.001) and the discrimination [area under the ROC curves: 0.744 (95 % CI: 0.714-0.773)] of the original SAPS II were relatively poor. A validation data set was created with a random panel of 24 French ICUs during March 1999 (312 patients). The LOD and SAPS II scores were calculated during the first (SAPS1, LOD1), second (SAPS2, LOD2), and third (SAPS3, LOD3) calendar days. The LOD and SAPS scores alterations were assigned the value "1" when scores increased with time and "0" otherwise. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to select variables measured during the first three calendar days, and independently associated with death. Selected variables were: SAPS II at admission [OR: 1.04 (95 % CI: 1.027-1.053) per point], LOD [OR: 1.16 (95 % CI: 1.085-1.253) per point], transfer from ward [OR: 1.74 (95 % CI: 1.25-2.42)], as well as SAPS3-SAPS2 alterations [OR: 1.516 (95 % CI: 1.04-2.22)], and LOD3-LOD2 alterations [OR: 2.00 (95 % CI: 1.29-3.11)]. The final model has good calibration and discrimination properties in the
Metz, Torri D; Stoddard, Gregory J; Henry, Erick; Jackson, Marc; Holmgren, Calla; Esplin, Sean
To create a simple tool for predicting the likelihood of successful trial of labor after cesarean delivery (TOLAC) during the pregnancy after a primary cesarean delivery using variables available at the time of admission. Data for all deliveries at 14 regional hospitals over an 8-year period were reviewed. Women with one cesarean delivery and one subsequent delivery were included. Variables associated with successful VBAC were identified using multivariable logistic regression. Points were assigned to these characteristics, with weighting based on the coefficients in the regression model to calculate an integer VBAC score. The VBAC score was correlated with TOLAC success rate and was externally validated in an independent cohort using a logistic regression model. A total of 5,445 women met inclusion criteria. Of those women, 1,170 (21.5%) underwent TOLAC. Of the women who underwent trial of labor, 938 (80%) had a successful VBAC. A VBAC score was generated based on the Bishop score (cervical examination) at the time of admission, with points added for history of vaginal birth, age younger than 35 years, absence of recurrent indication, and body mass index less than 30. Women with a VBAC score less than 10 had a likelihood of TOLAC success less than 50%. Women with a VBAC score more than 16 had a TOLAC success rate more than 85%. The model performed well in an independent cohort with an area under the curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.76-0.84). Prediction of TOLAC success at the time of admission is highly dependent on the initial cervical examination. This simple VBAC score can be utilized when counseling women considering TOLAC. II.
Kosztin, Annamaria; Costa, Jason; Moss, Arthur J; Biton, Yitschak; Nagy, Vivien Klaudia; Solomon, Scott D; Geller, Laszlo; McNitt, Scott; Polonsky, Bronislava; Merkely, Bela; Kutyifa, Valentina
There are limited data on whether clinical presentation at first heart failure (HF) hospitalization predicts recurrent HF events. We aimed to assess predictors of recurrent HF hospitalizations in mild HF patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator or cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator. Data on HF hospitalizations were prospectively collected for patients enrolled in MADIT-CRT. Predictors of recurrent HF hospitalization (HF2) after the first HF hospitalization were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression models including baseline covariates and clinical presentation or management at first HF hospitalization. There were 193 patients with first HF hospitalization, and 156 patients with recurrent HF events. Recurrent HF rate after the first HF hospitalization was 43% at 1 year, 52% at 2 years, and 55% at 2.5 years. Clinical signs and symptoms, medical treatment, or clinical management of HF at first HF admission was not predictive for HF2. Baseline covariates predicting recurrent HF hospitalization included prior HF hospitalization (HR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.15-2.20, P = 0.005), digitalis therapy (HR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.13-2.20, P = 0.008), and left ventricular end-diastolic volume >240 mL (HR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.17-2.25, P = 0.004). Recurrent HF events are frequent following the first HF hospitalization in patients with implanted implantable cardioverter defibrillator or cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator. Neither clinical presentation nor clinical management during first HF admission was predictive of recurrent HF. Prior HF hospitalization, digitalis therapy, and left ventricular end-diastolic volume at enrolment predicted recurrent HF hospitalization, and these covariates could be used as surrogate markers for identifying a high-risk cohort. © 2017 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.
Kaczmarek, Marlena C; Ware, Robert S; Coulthard, Mark G; McEniery, Julie; Lambert, Stephen B
Influenza virus predictably causes an annual epidemic resulting in a considerable burden of illness in Australia. Children are disproportionately affected and can experience severe illness and complications, which occasionally result in death. We conducted a retrospective descriptive study using data collated in the Australian and New Zealand Paediatric Intensive Care (ANZPIC) Registry of influenza-related intensive care unit (ICU) admissions over a 17-year period (1997-2013, inclusive) in children <16 years old. National laboratory-confirmed influenza notifications were used for comparison. Between 1997 and 2013, a total of 704 influenza-related ICU admissions were recorded, at a rate of 6.2 per 1,000 all-cause ICU admissions. Age at admission ranged from 0 days and 15.9 years (median = 2.1 years), with 135 (19.2%) aged <6 months. Pneumonia/pneumonitis and bronchiolitis were the most common primary diagnoses among influenza-related admissions (21.9% and 13.6%, respectively). More than half of total cases (59.2%) were previously healthy (no co-morbidities recorded), and in the remainder, chronic lung disease (16.7%) and asthma (12.5%) were the most common co-morbidities recorded. Pathogen co-detection occurred in 24.7% of cases, most commonly with respiratory syncytial virus or a staphylococcal species. Median length of all ICU admissions was 3.2 days (range 2.0 hours- 107.4 days) and 361 (51.3%) admissions required invasive respiratory support for a median duration of 4.3 days (range 0.2 hours- 107.5 days). There were 27 deaths recorded, 14 (51.9%) in children without a recorded co-morbidity. Influenza causes a substantial number of ICU admissions in Australian children each year with the majority occurring in previously healthy children.
Smuszkiewicz, Piotr; Wiczling, Paweł; Przybyłowski, Krzysztof; Borsuk, Agnieszka; Trojanowska, Iwona; Paterska, Marta; Matysiak, Jan; Kokot, Zenon; Grześkowiak, Edmund; Bienert, Agnieszka
The aim of this study was to characterize the pharmacokinetics (PK) of propofol in ICU patients undergoing long-term sedation and to assess the influence of routinely collected covariates on the PK parameters. Propofol concentration-time profiles were collected from 29 patients. Non-linear mixed-effects modelling in NONMEM 7.2 was used to analyse the observed data. The propofol pharmacokinetics was best described with a three-compartment disposition model. Non-parametric bootstrap and a visual predictive check were used to evaluate the adequacy of the developed model to describe the observations. The typical value of the propofol clearance (1.46 l/min) approximated the hepatic blood flow. The volume of distribution at steady state was high and was equal to 955.1 l, which is consistent with other studies involving propofol in ICU patients. There was no statistically significant covariate relationship between PK parameters and opioid type, SOFA score on the day of admission, APACHE II, predicted death rate, reason for ICU admission (sepsis, trauma or surgery), gender, body weight, age, infusion duration and C-reactive protein concentration. The population PK model was developed successfully to describe the time-course of propofol concentration in ICU patients undergoing prolonged sedation. Despite a very heterogeneous group of patients, consistent PK profiles were observed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Arozullah, Ahsan M; Lee, Shoou-Yih D; Khan, Taha; Kurup, Sindhu; Ryan, Jeffrey; Bonner, Michael; Soltysik, Robert; Yarnold, Paul R
Prior studies found higher hospitalization rates among patients with low literacy, but did not determine the preventability of these admissions or consider other determinants of hospitalization, such as social support. This study evaluated whether low literacy was a predictor for preventability of hospitalization when considered in the context of social support, sociodemographics, health status, and risk behaviors. A convenience sample of 400 patients, admitted to general medicine wards in a university-affiliated Veterans Affairs hospital between August 1, 2001 and April 1, 2003, completed a face-to-face interview to assess literacy, sociodemographics, social support, health status, and risk behaviors. Two Board-certified Internists independently assessed preventability of hospitalization and determined the primary preventable cause through blinded medical chart reviews. Neither low literacy (
Background Both hyperlactatemia and persistence of hyperlactatemia have been associated with bad outcome. We compared lactate and lactate-derived variables in outcome prediction. Methods Retrospective observational study. Case records from 2,251 consecutive intensive care unit (ICU) patients admitted between 2001 and 2007 were analyzed. Baseline characteristics, all lactate measurements, and in-hospital mortality were recorded. The time integral of arterial blood lactate levels above the upper normal threshold of 2.2 mmol/L (lactate-time-integral), maximum lactate (max-lactate), and time-to-first-normalization were calculated. Survivors and nonsurvivors were compared and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were applied. Results A total of 20,755 lactate measurements were analyzed. Data are srpehown as median [interquartile range]. In nonsurvivors (n = 405) lactate-time-integral (192 [0–1881] min·mmol/L) and time-to-first normalization (44.0 [0–427] min) were higher than in hospital survivors (n = 1846; 0 [0–134] min·mmol/L and 0 [0–75] min, respectively; all p < 0.001). Normalization of lactate <6 hours after ICU admission revealed better survival compared with normalization of lactate >6 hours (mortality 16.6% vs. 24.4%; p < 0.001). AUC of ROC curves to predict in-hospital mortality was the largest for max-lactate, whereas it was not different among all other lactate derived variables (all p > 0.05). The area under the ROC curves for admission lactate and lactate-time-integral was not different (p = 0.36). Conclusions Hyperlactatemia is associated with in-hospital mortality in a heterogeneous ICU population. In our patients, lactate peak values predicted in-hospital mortality equally well as lactate-time-integral of arterial blood lactate levels above the upper normal threshold. PMID:23446002
Fournier, A; Voirol, P; Krähenbühl, M; Bonnemain, C-L; Fournier, C; Dupuis-Lozeron, E; Pantet, O; Pagani, J-L; Revelly, J-P; Sadeghipour, F; Eggimann, P; Que, Y-A
Early-onset pneumonia (EOP) is frequent after burn trauma, increasing morbidity in the critical resuscitation phase, which may preclude early aggressive management of burn wounds. Currently, however, preemptive treatment is not recommended. The aim of this study was to identify predictive factors for EOP that may justify early empirical antibiotic treatment. Data for all burn patients requiring ≥4 h mechanical ventilation (MV) who were admitted between January 2001 and October 2012 were extracted from the hospital's computerized information system. We reviewed EOP episodes (≤7 days) among patients who underwent endotracheal aspiration (ETA) within 5 days after admission. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify independent factors associated with EOP. Logistic regression was used to identify factors predicting EOP development. During the study period, 396 burn patients were admitted. ETA was performed within 5 days in 204/290 patients receiving ≥4 h MV. One hundred and eight patients developed EOP; 47 cases were caused by Staphylococcus aureus, 37 by Haemophilus influenzae, and 23 by Streptococcus pneumoniae. Among the 33 patients showing S. aureus positivity on ETA samples, 16 (48.5 %) developed S. aureus EOP. Among the 156 S. aureus non-carriers, 16 (10.2 %) developed EOP. Staphylococcus aureus carriage independently predicted EOP (p < 0.0001). We identified S. aureus carriage as an independent and strong predictor of EOP. As rapid point-of-care testing for S. aureus is readily available, we recommend testing of all patients at admission for burn trauma and the consideration of early preemptive treatment in all positive patients. Further studies are needed to evaluate this new strategy.
Khanna, Raman R; Kim, Sharon B; Jenkins, Ian; El-Kareh, Robert; Afsarmanesh, Nasim; Amin, Alpesh; Sand, Heather; Auerbach, Andrew; Chia, Catherine Y; Maynard, Gregory; Romano, Patrick S; White, Richard H
Hospital-acquired venous thromboembolic (HA-VTE) events are an important, preventable cause of morbidity and death, but accurately identifying HA-VTE events requires labor-intensive chart review. Administrative diagnosis codes and their associated "present-on-admission" (POA) indicator might allow automated identification of HA-VTE events, but only if VTE codes are accurately flagged "not present-on-admission" (POA=N). New codes were introduced in 2009 to improve accuracy. We identified all medical patients with at least 1 VTE "other" discharge diagnosis code from 5 academic medical centers over a 24-month period. We then sampled, within each center, patients with VTE codes flagged POA=N or POA=U (insufficient documentation) and POA=Y or POA=W (timing clinically uncertain) and abstracted each chart to clarify VTE timing. All events that were not clearly POA were classified as HA-VTE. We then calculated predictive values of the POA=N/U flags for HA-VTE and the POA=Y/W flags for non-HA-VTE. Among 2070 cases with at least 1 "other" VTE code, we found 339 codes flagged POA=N/U and 1941 flagged POA=Y/W. Among 275 POA=N/U abstracted codes, 75.6% (95% CI, 70.1%-80.6%) were HA-VTE; among 291 POA=Y/W abstracted events, 73.5% (95% CI, 68.0%-78.5%) were non-HA-VTE. Extrapolating from this sample, we estimated that 59% of actual HA-VTE codes were incorrectly flagged POA=Y/W. POA indicator predictive values did not improve after new codes were introduced in 2009. The predictive value of VTE events flagged POA=N/U for HA-VTE was 75%. However, sole reliance on this flag may substantially underestimate the incidence of HA-VTE.
Palau, Patricia; Domínguez, Eloy; Núñez, Eduardo; Ramón, José María; López, Laura; Melero, Joana; Sanchis, Juan; Bellver, Alejandro; Santas, Enrique; Bayes-Genis, Antoni; Chorro, Francisco J; Núñez, Julio
Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is a highly prevalent syndrome with an elevated risk of morbidity and mortality. To date, there is scarce evidence on the role of peak exercise oxygen uptake (peak VO 2 ) for predicting the morbidity burden in HFpEF. We sought to evaluate the association between peak VO 2 and the risk of recurrent hospitalizations in patients with HFpEF. A total of 74 stable symptomatic patients with HFpEF underwent a cardiopulmonary exercise test between June 2012 and May 2016. A negative binomial regression method was used to determine the association between the percentage of predicted peak VO 2 (pp-peak VO 2 ) and recurrent hospitalizations. Risk estimates are reported as incidence rate ratios. The mean age was 72.5 ± 9.1 years, 53% were women, and all patients were in New York Heart Association functional class II to III. Mean peak VO 2 and median pp-peak VO 2 were 10 ± 2.8mL/min/kg and 60% (range, 47-67), respectively. During a median follow-up of 276 days [interquartile range, 153-1231], 84 all-cause hospitalizations in 31 patients (41.9%) were registered. A total of 15 (20.3%) deaths were also recorded. On multivariate analysis, accounting for mortality as a terminal event, pp-peak VO 2 was independently and linearly associated with the risk of recurrent admission. Thus, and modeled as continuous, a 10% decrease of pp-peak VO 2 increased the risk of recurrent hospitalizations by 32% (IRR, 1.32; 95%CI, 1.03-1.68; P = .028). In symptomatic elderly patients with HFpEF, pp-peak VO 2 predicts all-cause recurrent admission. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Louie, Dennis R; Eng, Janice J
This retrospective cohort study identified inpatient rehabilitation admission variables that predict walking ability at discharge and established Berg Balance Scale cut-off scores to predict the extent of improvement in walking. Participants (n=123) were assessed for various cognitive and physical outcomes at admission to inpatient stroke rehabilitation. Multivariate logistic regression identified admission predictors of regaining community ambulation (gait speed ≥0.8 m/s) or unassisted ambulation (no physical assistance) after 4 weeks. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis identified cut-off admission Berg Balance Scale scores. Mini-Mental State Examination (odds ratio (OR) 1.60, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.19-2.14) was a significant predictor when coupled with admission walking speed for regaining community ambulation speed; stroke type (haemorrhagic/ischaemic) was a significant predictor (OR=0.19, 95% CI 0.05-0.77) when coupled with Berg Balance Scale (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.09-1.20). Only Berg Balance Scale was a significant predictor of regaining unassisted ambulation (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05-1.17). A cut-off Berg Balance Scale score of 29 on admission predicts that an individual will go on to achieve community walking speed (n=123, area under the curve (AUC)=0.88, 95% CI 0.81-0.95); a cut-off score of 12 predicts a non-ambulator to regain unassisted ambulation (n=84, AUC 0.73, 95% CI 0.62-0.84). The Berg Balance Scale can be used at rehabilitation admission to predict the degree of improvement in walking for patients with stroke.
Leegon, Jeffrey; Aronsky, Dominik
The healthcare environment is constantly changing. Probabilistic clinical decision support systems need to recognize and incorporate the changing patterns and adjust the decision model to maintain high levels of accuracy. Using data from >75,000 ED patients during a 19-month study period we examined the impact of various static and dynamic training strategies on a decision support system designed to predict hospital admission status for ED patients. Training durations ranged from 1 to 12 weeks. During the study period major institutional changes occurred that affected the system's performance level. The average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was higher and more stable when longer training periods were used. The system showed higher accuracy when retrained an updated with more recent data as compared to static training period. To adjust for temporal trends the accuracy of decision support systems can benefit from longer training periods and retraining with more recent data.
Panella, L; La Porta, F; Caselli, S; Marchisio, S; Tennant, A
Effective discharge planning is increasingly recognised as a critical component of hospital-based Rehabilitation. The BRASS index is a risk screening tool for identification, shortly after hospital admission, of patients who are at risk of post-discharge problems. To evaluate the internal construct validity and reliability of the Blaylock Risk Assessment Screening Score (BRASS) within the rehabilitation setting. Observational prospective study. Rehabilitation ward of an Italian district hospital. One hundred and four consecutively admitted patients. Using classical psychometric methods and Rasch analysis (RA), the internal construct validity and reliability of the BRASS were examined. Also, external and predictive validity of the Rasch-modified BRASS (RMB) score were determined. Reliability of the original BRASS was low (Cronbach's alpha=0.595) and factor analyses showed that it was clearly multidimensional. A RA, based on a reduced 7-BRASS item set (RMB), satisfied model's expectations. Reliability was 0.777. The RMB scores strongly correlated with the original BRASS (rho=0.952; P<0.000) and with FIM™ admission scores (rho=-0.853; P<0.000). A RMB score of 12 was associated with an increased risk of nursing home admission (RR=2.1, 95%CI=1.7-2.5), whereas a score of 17 was associated to a higher risk of length of stay >28 days (RR=7.6, 95%CI=1.8-31.9). This study demonstrated that the original BRASS was multidimensional and unreliable. However, the RMB holds adequate internal construct validity and is sufficiently reliable as a predictor of discharge problems for group, but not individual use. The application of tools and methods (such as the BRASS Index) developed under the biomedical paradigm in a Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine setting may have limitations. Further research is needed to develop, within the rehabilitation setting, a valid measuring tool of risk of post-discharge problems at the individual level.
Pereira, J M; Moreno, R P; Matos, R; Rhodes, A; Martin-Loeches, I; Cecconi, M; Lisboa, T; Rello, J
The aim of this study was to determine if severity assessment tools (general severity of illness and community-acquired pneumonia specific scores) can be used to guide decisions for patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) due to pandemic influenza A pneumonia. A prospective, observational, multicentre study included 265 patients with a mean age of 42 (±16.1) years and an ICU mortality of 31.7%. On admission to the ICU, the mean pneumonia severity index (PSI) score was 103.2 ± 43.2 points, the CURB-65 score was 1.7 ± 1.1 points and the PIRO-CAP score was 3.2 ± 1.5 points. None of the scores had a good predictive ability: area under the ROC for PSI, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.65-0.78); CURB-65, 0.67 (95% CI, 0.59-0.74); and PIRO-CAP, 0.64 (95% CI, 0.56-0.71). The PSI score (OR, 1.022 (1.009-1.034), p 0.001) was independently associated with ICU mortality; however, none of the three scores, when used at ICU admission, were able to reliably detect a low-risk group of patients. Low risk for mortality was identified in 27.5% of patients using PIRO-CAP, but above 40% when using PSI (I-III) or CURB65 (<2). Observed mortality was 13.7%, 13.5% and 19.4%, respectively. Pneumonia-specific scores undervalued severity and should not be used as instruments to guide decisions in the ICU. © 2011 The Authors. Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2011 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.
Nuutinen, Mikko; Leskelä, Riikka-Leena; Suojalehto, Ella; Tirronen, Anniina; Komssi, Vesa
In previous years a substantial number of studies have identified statistically important predictors of nursing home admission (NHA). However, as far as we know, the analyses have been done at the population-level. No prior research has analysed the prediction accuracy of a NHA model for individuals. This study is an analysis of 3056 longer-term home care customers in the city of Tampere, Finland. Data were collected from the records of social and health service usage and RAI-HC (Resident Assessment Instrument - Home Care) assessment system during January 2011 and September 2015. The aim was to find out the most efficient variable subsets to predict NHA for individuals and validate the accuracy. The variable subsets of predicting NHA were searched by sequential forward selection (SFS) method, a variable ranking metric and the classifiers of logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM) and Gaussian naive Bayes (GNB). The validation of the results was guaranteed using randomly balanced data sets and cross-validation. The primary performance metrics for the classifiers were the prediction accuracy and AUC (average area under the curve). The LR and GNB classifiers achieved 78% accuracy for predicting NHA. The most important variables were RAI MAPLE (Method for Assigning Priority Levels), functional impairment (RAI IADL, Activities of Daily Living), cognitive impairment (RAI CPS, Cognitive Performance Scale), memory disorders (diagnoses G30-G32 and F00-F03) and the use of community-based health-service and prior hospital use (emergency visits and periods of care). The accuracy of the classifier for individuals was high enough to convince the officials of the city of Tampere to integrate the predictive model based on the findings of this study as a part of home care information system. Further work need to be done to evaluate variables that are modifiable and responsive to interventions.
Intarasothonchun, Silada; Thipchaksurat, Sakchai; Varakulsiripunth, Ruttikorn; Onozato, Yoshikuni
In this paper, we propose a modified scheme of MSODB and PMS, called Predictive User Mobility Behavior (PUMB) to improve performance of resource reservation and call admission control for cellular networks. This algorithm is proposed in which bandwidth is allocated more efficiently to neighboring cells by key mobility parameters in order to provide QoS guarantees for transferring traffic. The probability is used to form a cluster of cells and the shadow cluster, where a mobile unit is likely to visit. When a mobile unit may change the direction and migrate to the cell that does not belong to its shadow cluster, we can support it by making efficient use of predicted nonconforming call. Concomitantly, to ensure continuity of on-going calls with better utilization of resources, bandwidth is borrowed from predicted nonconforming calls and existing adaptive calls without affecting the minimum QoS guarantees. The performance of the PUMB is demonstrated by simulation results in terms of new call blocking probability, handoff call dropping probability, bandwidth utilization, call successful probability, and overhead message transmission when arrival rate and speed of mobile units are varied. Our results show that PUMB provides the better performances comparing with those of MSODB and PMS under different traffic conditions.
Kuntz, Jennifer L; Smith, David H; Petrik, Amanda F; Yang, Xiuhai; Thorp, Micah L; Barton, Tracy; Barton, Karen; Labreche, Matthew; Spindel, Steven J; Johnson, Eric S
Increasing morbidity and health care costs related to Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) have heightened interest in methods to identify patients who would most benefit from interventions to mitigate the likelihood of CDI. To develop a risk score that can be calculated upon hospital admission and used by antimicrobial stewards, including pharmacists and clinicians, to identify patients at risk for CDI who would benefit from enhanced antibiotic review and patient education. We assembled a cohort of Kaiser Permanente Northwest patients with a hospital admission from July 1, 2005, through December 30, 2012, and identified CDI in the six months following hospital admission. Using Cox regression, we constructed a score to identify patients at high risk for CDI on the basis of preadmission characteristics. We calculated and plotted the observed six-month CDI risk for each decile of predicted risk. We identified 721 CDIs following 54,186 hospital admissions-a 6-month incidence of 13.3 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. Patients with the highest predicted risk of CDI had an observed incidence of 53 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. The score differentiated between patients who do and do not develop CDI, with values for the extended C-statistic of 0.75. Predicted risk for CDI agreed closely with observed risk. Our risk score accurately predicted six-month risk for CDI using preadmission characteristics. Accurate predictions among the highest-risk patient subgroups allow for the identification of patients who could be targeted for and who would likely benefit from review of inpatient antibiotic use or enhanced educational efforts at the time of discharge planning.
Bills, James L; VanHouten, Jacob; Grundy, Michelle M; Chalkley, Roger; Dermody, Terence S
The Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) is a quantitative metric used by MD and MD-PhD programs to evaluate applicants for admission. This study assessed the validity of the MCAT in predicting training performance measures and career outcomes for MD-PhD students at a single institution. The study population consisted of 153 graduates of the Vanderbilt Medical Scientist Training Program (combined MD-PhD program) who matriculated between 1963 and 2003 and completed dual-degree training. This population was divided into three cohorts corresponding to the version of the MCAT taken at the time of application. Multivariable regression (logistic for binary outcomes and linear for continuous outcomes) was used to analyze factors associated with outcome measures. The MCAT score and undergraduate GPA (uGPA) were treated as independent variables; medical and graduate school grades, time-to-PhD defense, USMLE scores, publication number, and career outcome were dependent variables. For cohort 1 (1963-1977), MCAT score was not associated with any assessed outcome, although uGPA was associated with medical school preclinical GPA and graduate school GPA (gsGPA). For cohort 2 (1978-1991), MCAT score was associated with USMLE Step II score and inversely correlated with publication number, and uGPA was associated with preclinical GPA (mspGPA) and clinical GPA (mscGPA). For cohort 3 (1992-2003), the MCAT score was associated with mscGPA, and uGPA was associated with gsGPA. Overall, MCAT score and uGPA were inconsistent or weak predictors of training metrics and career outcomes for this population of MD-PhD students.
Fabbian, Fabio; De Giorgi, Alfredo; Maietti, Elisa; Gallerani, Massimo; Pala, Marco; Cappadona, Rosaria; Manfredini, Roberto; Fedeli, Ugo
In-hospital mortality (IHM) is an indicator of the quality of care provided. The two most widely used scores for predicting IHM by International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes are the Elixhauser (EI) and the Charlson Comorbidity indexes. Our aim was to obtain new measures based on internal medicine ICD codes for the original EI, to detect risk for IHM. This single-center retrospective study included hospital admissions for any cause in the department of internal medicine between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2013, recorded in the hospital database. The EI was calculated for evaluation of comorbidity, then we added age, gender and diagnosis of ischemic heart disease. IHM was our outcome. Only predictors positively associated with IHM were taken into consideration and the Sullivan's method was applied in order to modify the parameter estimates of the regression model into an index. We analyzed 75,586 admissions (53.4% females) and mean age was 72.7±16.3years. IHM was 7.9% and mean score was 12.1±7.6. The points assigned to each condition ranged from 0 to 16, and the possible range of the score varied between 0 and 89. In our population the score ranged from 0 to 54, and it was higher in the deceased group. Receiver operating characteristic curve of the new score was 0.721 (95% CI 0.714-0.727, p<0.001). In order to make prognostic assessment, the use of a score could be of help in targeting interventions in older adults, identifying subjects at high risk for IHM. Copyright © 2017 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Bonaventura, Aldo; Gallo, Fiorenza; Carbone, Federico; Liberale, Luca; Maggi, Davide; Sacchi, Giovanni; Dallegri, Franco; Montecucco, Fabrizio; Cordera, Renzo
Hypoglycaemia represents a critical burden with clinical and social consequences in the management of diabetes. Serum uric acid (SUA) has been associated with cardiovascular diseases (CVD), but no conclusive findings are available nowadays in patients suffering from hypoglycaemia. We investigated whether SUA levels at the time of hypoglycaemia could predict all-cause mortality after 1-year follow-up. In total, 219 patients admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) of Ospedale Policlinico S. Martino of Genoa (Italy) have been enrolled between January 2011 and December 2014. The primary endpoint of the study consisted in determining whether SUA levels at the time of ED admission could predict the occurrence of death after 1 year. The majority of patients were diabetic, especially type 2. CVD and chronic kidney disease were prevalent comorbidities. By a cut-off value obtained by the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, a Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that patients with SUA levels > 5.43 mg/dL were more prone to death after 1 year compared to those with lower SUA levels. The risk of death increased with high SUA levels both in the univariate and the multivariate models including estimated glomerular filtration rate, C-reactive protein, type of diabetes, and age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index. SUA could be useful as a predictor of 1-year mortality in hypoglycaemic patients, irrespective of severe comorbidities notably increasing the risk of death in these frail patients.
Comparison of the Mortality Probability Admission Model III, National Quality Forum, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV hospital mortality models: implications for national benchmarking*.
Kramer, Andrew A; Higgins, Thomas L; Zimmerman, Jack E
To examine the accuracy of the original Mortality Probability Admission Model III, ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum modification of Mortality Probability Admission Model III, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa models for comparing observed and risk-adjusted hospital mortality predictions. Retrospective paired analyses of day 1 hospital mortality predictions using three prognostic models. Fifty-five ICUs at 38 U.S. hospitals from January 2008 to December 2012. Among 174,001 intensive care admissions, 109,926 met model inclusion criteria and 55,304 had data for mortality prediction using all three models. None. We compared patient exclusions and the discrimination, calibration, and accuracy for each model. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa excluded 10.7% of all patients, ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum 20.1%, and Mortality Probability Admission Model III 24.1%. Discrimination of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa was superior with area under receiver operating curve (0.88) compared with Mortality Probability Admission Model III (0.81) and ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum (0.80). Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa was better calibrated (lowest Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic). The accuracy of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa was superior (adjusted Brier score = 31.0%) to that for Mortality Probability Admission Model III (16.1%) and ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum (17.8%). Compared with observed mortality, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa overpredicted mortality by 1.5% and Mortality Probability Admission Model III by 3.1%; ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum underpredicted mortality by 1.2%. Calibration curves showed that Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation performed well over the entire risk range, unlike the Mortality Probability Admission Model and ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum models. Acute
Yaghoubian, Arezou; de Virgilio, Christian; Dauphine, Christine; Lewis, Roger J; Lin, Matthew
Simple admission laboratory values can be used to classify patients with necrotizing soft-tissue infection (NSTI) into high and low mortality risk groups. Chart review. Public teaching hospital. All patients with NSTI from 1997 through 2006. Variables analyzed included medical history, admission vital signs, laboratory values, and microbiologic findings. Data analyses included univariate and classification and regression tree analyses. Mortality. One hundred twenty-four patients were identified with NSTI. The overall mortality rate was 21 of 124 (17%). On univariate analysis, factors associated with mortality included a history of cancer (P = .03), intravenous drug abuse (P < .001), low systolic blood pressure on admission (P = .03), base deficit (P = .009), and elevated white blood cell count (P = .06). On exploratory classification and regression tree analysis, admission serum lactate and sodium levels were predictors of mortality, with a sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 28%, positive predictive value of 23%, and negative predictive value of 100%. A serum lactate level greater than or equal to 54.1 mg/dL (6 mmol/L) alone was associated with a 32% mortality, whereas a serum sodium level greater than or equal to 135 mEq/L combined with a lactate level less than 54.1 mg/dL was associated with a mortality of 0%. Mortality for NSTIs remains high. A simple model, using admission serum lactate and serum sodium levels, may help identify patients at greatest risk for death.
Becker, Delmiro; Tozo, Tatiane Cristiana; Batista, Saionara Savaris; Mattos, Andréa Luciana; Silva, Mirian Carla Bortolamedi; Rigon, Sabrina; Laynes, Rosane Lucia; Salomão, Edilaine C; Hubner, Karina Drielli Gonçalves; Sorbara, Silvia Garcia Barros; Duarte, Péricles A D
To evaluate the incidence and risk factors of pressure ulcers (PU) in adult patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), as well as the outcome (including ICU and hospital mortality) of these patients. Epidemiological cohort multicenter prospective study, evaluating patients admitted for a period of 31days (June 01 to July 01, 2015) until hospital discharge. Epidemiological and clinical data were collected daily until ICU discharge, as was the incidence of PU, either new or present on admission. 10 general adult ICUs. We evaluated 332 patients, 52.1% male, mean age 63.1 years. The most common cause of admission was medical diseases (50.3%), and the mean APACHE II score was 14.9. A total of 45 patients (13.6%) had PU; the most common sites were sacral, calcaneal, ears, and trochanter. The incidence of PU was related to predictive factors, such as the Braden Scale and length of lack of nutrition. The presence of PU was strongly related to unfavorable outcomes, such as Mechanical Ventilation (MV) duration and ICU and hospital mortality. PU incidence is related to severity of the patient's condition and predicted by Braden Scale score. The presence of PU is also related to adverse outcomes, such as MV duration and ICU and hospital mortality. It was also shown that patients with PU have a higher incidence of medical complications, such as acute renal failure, pneumonia, and the need for vasoactive drugs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Freedberg, Daniel E; Zhou, Margaret J; Cohen, Margot E; Annavajhala, Medini K; Khan, Sabrina; Moscoso, Dagmara I; Brooks, Christian; Whittier, Susan; Chong, David H; Uhlemann, Anne-Catrin; Abrams, Julian A
Loss of colonization resistance within the gastrointestinal microbiome facilitates the expansion of pathogens and has been associated with death and infection in select populations. We tested whether gut microbiome features at the time of intensive care unit (ICU) admission predict death or infection. This was a prospective cohort study of medical ICU adults. Rectal surveillance swabs were performed at admission, selectively cultured for vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE), and assessed using 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Patients were followed for 30 days for death or culture-proven bacterial infection. Of 301 patients, 123 (41%) developed culture-proven infections and 76 (25%) died. Fecal biodiversity (Shannon index) did not differ based on death or infection (p = 0.49). The presence of specific pathogens at ICU admission was associated with subsequent infection with the same organism for Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas spp., Klebsiella spp., and Clostridium difficile, and VRE at admission was associated with subsequent Enterococcus infection. In a multivariable model adjusting for severity of illness, VRE colonization and Enterococcus domination (≥ 30% 16S reads) were both associated with death or all-cause infection (aHR 1.46, 95% CI 1.06-2.00 and aHR 1.47, 95% CI 1.00-2.19, respectively); among patients without VRE colonization, Enterococcus domination was associated with excess risk of death or infection (aHR 2.13, 95% CI 1.06-4.29). Enterococcus status at ICU admission was associated with risk for death or all-cause infection, and rectal carriage of common ICU pathogens predicted specific infections. The gastrointestinal microbiome may have a role in risk stratification and early diagnosis of ICU infections.
Introduction Intensive care is generally regarded as expensive, and as a result beds are limited. This has raised serious questions about rationing when there are insufficient beds for all those referred. However, the evidence for the cost effectiveness of intensive care is weak and the work that does exist usually assumes that those who are not admitted do not survive, which is not always the case. Randomised studies of the effectiveness of intensive care are difficult to justify on ethical grounds; therefore, this observational study examined the cost effectiveness of ICU admission by comparing patients who were accepted into ICU after ICU triage to those who were not accepted, while attempting to adjust such comparison for confounding factors. Methods This multi-centre observational cohort study involved 11 hospitals in 7 EU countries and was designed to assess the cost effectiveness of admission to intensive care after ICU triage. A total of 7,659 consecutive patients referred to the intensive care unit (ICU) were divided into those accepted for admission and those not accepted. The two groups were compared in terms of cost and mortality using multilevel regression models to account for differences across centres, and after adjusting for age, Karnofsky score and indication for ICU admission. The analyses were also stratified by categories of Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II predicted mortality (< 5%, 5% to 40% and >40%). Cost effectiveness was evaluated as cost per life saved and cost per life-year saved. Results Admission to ICU produced a relative reduction in mortality risk, expressed as odds ratio, of 0.70 (0.52 to 0.94) at 28 days. When stratified by predicted mortality, the odds ratio was 1.49 (0.79 to 2.81), 0.7 (0.51 to 0.97) and 0.55 (0.37 to 0.83) for <5%, 5% to 40% and >40% predicted mortality, respectively. Average cost per life saved for all patients was $103,771 (€82,358) and cost per life-year saved was $7,065 (€5,607). These
Koster-Brouwer, Maria E; Verboom, Diana M; Scicluna, Brendon P; van de Groep, Kirsten; Frencken, Jos F; Janssen, Davy; Schuurman, Rob; Schultz, Marcus J; van der Poll, Tom; Bonten, Marc J M; Cremer, Olaf L
Discrimination between infectious and noninfectious causes of acute respiratory failure is difficult in patients admitted to the ICU after a period of hospitalization. Using a novel biomarker test (SeptiCyte LAB), we aimed to distinguish between infection and inflammation in this population. Nested cohort study. Two tertiary mixed ICUs in the Netherlands. Hospitalized patients with acute respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation upon ICU admission from 2011 to 2013. Patients having an established infection diagnosis or an evidently noninfectious reason for intubation were excluded. None. Blood samples were collected upon ICU admission. Test results were categorized into four probability bands (higher bands indicating higher infection probability) and compared with the infection plausibility as rated by post hoc assessment using strict definitions. Of 467 included patients, 373 (80%) were treated for a suspected infection at admission. Infection plausibility was classified as ruled out, undetermined, or confirmed in 135 (29%), 135 (29%), and 197 (42%) patients, respectively. Test results correlated with infection plausibility (Spearman's rho 0.332; p < 0.001). After exclusion of undetermined cases, positive predictive values were 29%, 54%, and 76% for probability bands 2, 3, and 4, respectively, whereas the negative predictive value for band 1 was 76%. Diagnostic discrimination of SeptiCyte LAB and C-reactive protein was similar (p = 0.919). Among hospitalized patients admitted to the ICU with clinical uncertainty regarding the etiology of acute respiratory failure, the diagnostic value of SeptiCyte LAB was limited.
Niven, Alexander S.; Beninati, William; Fang, Ray; Einav, Sharon; Rubinson, Lewis; Kissoon, Niranjan; Devereaux, Asha V.; Christian, Michael D.; Grissom, Colin K.; Christian, Michael D.; Devereaux, Asha V.; Dichter, Jeffrey R.; Kissoon, Niranjan; Rubinson, Lewis; Amundson, Dennis; Anderson, Michael R.; Balk, Robert; Barfield, Wanda D.; Bartz, Martha; Benditt, Josh; Beninati, William; Berkowitz, Kenneth A.; Daugherty Biddison, Lee; Braner, Dana; Branson, Richard D; Burkle, Frederick M.; Cairns, Bruce A.; Carr, Brendan G.; Courtney, Brooke; DeDecker, Lisa D.; De Jong, Marla J.; Dominguez-Cherit, Guillermo; Dries, David; Einav, Sharon; Erstad, Brian L.; Etienne, Mill; Fagbuyi, Daniel B.; Fang, Ray; Feldman, Henry; Garzon, Hernando; Geiling, James; Gomersall, Charles D.; Grissom, Colin K.; Hanfling, Dan; Hick, John L.; Hodge, James G.; Hupert, Nathaniel; Ingbar, David; Kanter, Robert K.; King, Mary A.; Kuhnley, Robert N.; Lawler, James; Leung, Sharon; Levy, Deborah A.; Lim, Matthew L.; Livinski, Alicia; Luyckx, Valerie; Marcozzi, David; Medina, Justine; Miramontes, David A.; Mutter, Ryan; Niven, Alexander S.; Penn, Matthew S.; Pepe, Paul E.; Powell, Tia; Prezant, David; Reed, Mary Jane; Rich, Preston; Rodriquez, Dario; Roxland, Beth E.; Sarani, Babak; Shah, Umair A.; Skippen, Peter; Sprung, Charles L.; Subbarao, Italo; Talmor, Daniel; Toner, Eric S.; Tosh, Pritish K.; Upperman, Jeffrey S.; Uyeki, Timothy M.; Weireter, Leonard J.; West, T. Eoin; Wilgis, John; Ornelas, Joe; McBride, Deborah; Reid, David; Baez, Amado; Baldisseri, Marie; Blumenstock, James S.; Cooper, Art; Ellender, Tim; Helminiak, Clare; Jimenez, Edgar; Krug, Steve; Lamana, Joe; Masur, Henry; Mathivha, L. Rudo; Osterholm, Michael T.; Reynolds, H. Neal; Sandrock, Christian; Sprecher, Armand; Tillyard, Andrew; White, Douglas; Wise, Robert; Yeskey, Kevin
BACKGROUND: Despite the high risk for patient harm during unanticipated ICU evacuations, critical care providers receive little to no training on how to perform safe and effective ICU evacuations. We reviewed the pertinent published literature and offer suggestions for the critical care provider regarding ICU evacuation. The suggestions in this article are important for all who are involved in pandemics or disasters with multiple critically ill or injured patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. METHODS: The Evacuation and Mobilization topic panel used the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) Guidelines Oversight Committee’s methodology to develop seven key questions for which specific literature searches were conducted to identify studies upon which evidence-based recommendations could be made. No studies of sufficient quality were identified. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process. RESULTS: Based on current best evidence, we provide 13 suggestions outlining a systematic approach to prepare for and execute an effective ICU evacuation during a disaster. Interhospital and intrahospital collaboration and functional ICU communication are critical for success. Pre-event planning and preparation are required for a no-notice evacuation. A Critical Care Team Leader must be designated within the Hospital Incident Command System. A three-stage ICU Evacuation Timeline, including (1) no immediate threat, (2) evacuation threat, and (3) evacuation implementation, should be used. Detailed suggestions on ICU evacuation, including regional planning, evacuation drills, patient transport preparation and equipment, patient prioritization and distribution for evacuation, patient information and tracking, and federal and international evacuation assistance systems, are also provided. CONCLUSIONS: Successful ICU evacuation during a disaster requires
Khawaja, Ayaz M; Shiue, Harn; Boehme, Amelia K; Albright, Karen C; Venkatraman, Anand; Kumar, Gyanendra; Lyerly, Michael J; Hays-Shapshak, Angela; Mirza, Maira; Gropen, Toby I; Harrigan, Mark R
Control of systolic blood pressure (SBP) after primary intracerebral hemorrhage improves outcomes. Factors determining the number of blood pressure medications (BPM) required for goal SBP<160 mm Hg at discharge are unknown. We hypothesized that higher admission-SBPs require a greater number of BPM for goal discharge-SBP<160 mm Hg, and investigated factors influencing this goal. We conducted a retrospective review of 288 patients who presented with primary intracerebral hemorrhage. Admission-SBP was obtained. Primary outcome was the number of BPM at discharge. Comparison was made between patients presenting with and without a history of hypertension, and patients discharged on <3 and ≥3 BPM. Patients with hypertension history had a higher median admission-SBP compared with those without (180 vs. 157 mm Hg, P=0.0001). In total, 133 of 288 (46.2%) patients were discharged on <3 BPM; 155/288 (53.8%) were discharged on ≥3 BPM. Hypertension history (P<0.0001) and admission-SBP (P<0.0001) predicted the number of BPM at discharge. In patients without hypertension history, every 10 mm Hg increase in SBP resulted in an absolute increase of 0.5 BPM at discharge (P=0.0011), whereas in those with hypertension, the absolute increase was 1.3 BPM (P=0.0012). In comparison with patients discharged on <3 BPM, patients discharged on ≥3 BPM were more likely to have a higher median admission-SBP, be younger in age, belong to the African-American race, have a history of diabetes, have higher median admission-National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and modified Rankin Scale of 4 to 5 at discharge. An understanding of the factors influencing BPM at discharge may help clinicians better optimize blood pressure control both before and after discharge.
Lord, Robert K; Mayhew, Christopher R; Korupolu, Radha; Mantheiy, Earl C; Friedman, Michael A; Palmer, Jeffrey B; Needham, Dale M
To evaluate the potential annual net cost savings of implementing an ICU early rehabilitation program. Using data from existing publications and actual experience with an early rehabilitation program in the Johns Hopkins Hospital Medical ICU, we developed a model of net financial savings/costs and presented results for ICUs with 200, 600, 900, and 2,000 annual admissions, accounting for both conservative- and best-case scenarios. Our example scenario provided a projected financial analysis of the Johns Hopkins Medical ICU early rehabilitation program, with 900 admissions per year, using actual reductions in length of stay achieved by this program. U.S.-based adult ICUs. Financial modeling of the introduction of an ICU early rehabilitation program. Net cost savings generated in our example scenario, with 900 annual admissions and actual length of stay reductions of 22% and 19% for the ICU and floor, respectively, were $817,836. Sensitivity analyses, which used conservative- and best-case scenarios for length of stay reductions and varied the per-day ICU and floor costs, across ICUs with 200-2,000 annual admissions, yielded financial projections ranging from -$87,611 (net cost) to $3,763,149 (net savings). Of the 24 scenarios included in these sensitivity analyses, 20 (83%) demonstrated net savings, with a relatively small net cost occurring in the remaining four scenarios, mostly when simultaneously combining the most conservative assumptions. A financial model, based on actual experience and published data, projects that investment in an ICU early rehabilitation program can generate net financial savings for U.S. hospitals. Even under the most conservative assumptions, the projected net cost of implementing such a program is modest relative to the substantial improvements in patient outcomes demonstrated by ICU early rehabilitation programs.
Thygesen, Elin; Saevareid, Hans Inge; Lindstrom, Torill Christine; Nygaard, Harald A; Engedal, Knut
Objectives. This study examined predisposing, enabling and need variables (Andersen's Behavioral Model) influencing the need for nursing home admission (NHA) in older people receiving home nursing care. In particular, the potential role of coping ability, measured as 'sense of coherence' (SOC), was studied. Design, sample, and measurements. A survey with baseline- and follow-up data after a 2-year period was undertaken with 208 patients aged 75+. The measures used were: gender, education, age, social visits, SOC, social provision scale (SPS), self-rated health (SRH), general health questionnaire (GHQ), clinical dementia rating (CDR), Barthel activities of daily living (ADL) index, and registered illnesses (RI). A Cox proportional model was used to examine factors that could explain risk of NHA. Results. Measures with predictive properties were Barthel ADL index, SPS, SRH, and gender. SOC, along with subjective health complaints, general health questionnaire, RI and social visits did not predict NHA. Conclusions. It is concluded that the patients' subjective evaluations of both their health and perceived social support were important predictors of future NHA needs, and should be seriously taken into consideration, along with the more commonly used objective measures of ADL and CDR. © 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Mao, Qingqing; Jay, Melissa; Hoffman, Jana L; Calvert, Jacob; Barton, Christopher; Shimabukuro, David; Shieh, Lisa; Chettipally, Uli; Fletcher, Grant; Kerem, Yaniv; Zhou, Yifan; Das, Ritankar
We validate a machine learning-based sepsis-prediction algorithm ( InSight ) for the detection and prediction of three sepsis-related gold standards, using only six vital signs. We evaluate robustness to missing data, customisation to site-specific data using transfer learning and generalisability to new settings. A machine-learning algorithm with gradient tree boosting. Features for prediction were created from combinations of six vital sign measurements and their changes over time. A mixed-ward retrospective dataset from the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) Medical Center (San Francisco, California, USA) as the primary source, an intensive care unit dataset from the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (Boston, Massachusetts, USA) as a transfer-learning source and four additional institutions' datasets to evaluate generalisability. 684 443 total encounters, with 90 353 encounters from June 2011 to March 2016 at UCSF. None. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for detection and prediction of sepsis, severe sepsis and septic shock. For detection of sepsis and severe sepsis, InSight achieves an AUROC curve of 0.92 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.93) and 0.87 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.88), respectively. Four hours before onset, InSight predicts septic shock with an AUROC of 0.96 (95% CI 0.94 to 0.98) and severe sepsis with an AUROC of 0.85 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.91). InSight outperforms existing sepsis scoring systems in identifying and predicting sepsis, severe sepsis and septic shock. This is the first sepsis screening system to exceed an AUROC of 0.90 using only vital sign inputs. InSight is robust to missing data, can be customised to novel hospital data using a small fraction of site data and retains strong discrimination across all institutions. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.
Mao, Qingqing; Jay, Melissa; Calvert, Jacob; Barton, Christopher; Shimabukuro, David; Shieh, Lisa; Chettipally, Uli; Fletcher, Grant; Kerem, Yaniv; Zhou, Yifan; Das, Ritankar
Objectives We validate a machine learning-based sepsis-prediction algorithm (InSight) for the detection and prediction of three sepsis-related gold standards, using only six vital signs. We evaluate robustness to missing data, customisation to site-specific data using transfer learning and generalisability to new settings. Design A machine-learning algorithm with gradient tree boosting. Features for prediction were created from combinations of six vital sign measurements and their changes over time. Setting A mixed-ward retrospective dataset from the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) Medical Center (San Francisco, California, USA) as the primary source, an intensive care unit dataset from the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (Boston, Massachusetts, USA) as a transfer-learning source and four additional institutions’ datasets to evaluate generalisability. Participants 684 443 total encounters, with 90 353 encounters from June 2011 to March 2016 at UCSF. Interventions None. Primary and secondary outcome measures Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for detection and prediction of sepsis, severe sepsis and septic shock. Results For detection of sepsis and severe sepsis, InSight achieves an AUROC curve of 0.92 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.93) and 0.87 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.88), respectively. Four hours before onset, InSight predicts septic shock with an AUROC of 0.96 (95% CI 0.94 to 0.98) and severe sepsis with an AUROC of 0.85 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.91). Conclusions InSight outperforms existing sepsis scoring systems in identifying and predicting sepsis, severe sepsis and septic shock. This is the first sepsis screening system to exceed an AUROC of 0.90 using only vital sign inputs. InSight is robust to missing data, can be customised to novel hospital data using a small fraction of site data and retains strong discrimination across all institutions. PMID:29374661
Zapatero, A; Dot, I; Diaz, Y; Gracia, M P; Pérez-Terán, P; Climent, C; Masclans, J R; Nolla, J
To evaluate the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in critically ill patients upon admission to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and its prognostic implications. A single-center, prospective observational study was carried out from January to November 2015. Patients were followed-up on until death or hospital discharge. The department of Critical Care Medicine of a university hospital. All adults admitted to the ICU during the study period, without known factors capable of altering serum 25(OH)D concentration. Determination of serum 25(OH)D levels within the first 24h following admission to the ICU. Prevalence and mortality at 28 days. The study included 135 patients, of which 74% presented deficient serum 25(OH)D levels upon admission to the ICU. Non-survivors showed significantly lower levels than survivors (8.14ng/ml [6.17-11.53] vs. 12ng/ml [7.1-20.30]; P=.04], and the serum 25(OH)D levels were independently associated to mortality (OR 2.86; 95% CI 1.05-7.86; P=.04]. The area under the ROC curve was 0.61 (95% CI 0.51-0.75), and the best cut-off point for predicting mortality was 10.9ng/ml. Patients with serum 25(OH)D<10.9ng/ml also showed higher acute kidney injury rates (13 vs. 29%; P=.02). Vitamin D deficiency is highly prevalent upon admission to the ICU. Severe Vitamin D deficiency (25[OH]D<10.9ng/ml) upon admission to the ICU is associated to acute kidney injury and mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.
Ogbu, Ogbonna C.; Coopersmith, Craig M.
Improving value within critical care remains a priority because it represents a significant portion of health-care spending, faces high rates of adverse events, and inconsistently delivers evidence-based practices. ICU directors are increasingly required to understand all aspects of the value provided by their units to inform local improvement efforts and relate effectively to external parties. A clear understanding of the overall process of measuring quality and value as well as the strengths, limitations, and potential application of individual metrics is critical to supporting this charge. In this review, we provide a conceptual framework for understanding value metrics, describe an approach to developing a value measurement program, and summarize common metrics to characterize ICU value. We first summarize how ICU value can be represented as a function of outcomes and costs. We expand this equation and relate it to both the classic structure-process-outcome framework for quality assessment and the Institute of Medicine’s six aims of health care. We then describe how ICU leaders can develop their own value measurement process by identifying target areas, selecting appropriate measures, acquiring the necessary data, analyzing the data, and disseminating the findings. Within this measurement process, we summarize common metrics that can be used to characterize ICU value. As health care, in general, and critical care, in particular, changes and data become more available, it is increasingly important for ICU leaders to understand how to effectively acquire, evaluate, and apply data to improve the value of care provided to patients. PMID:25846533
Introduction The role of ICU design and particularly single-patient rooms in decreasing bacterial transmission between ICU patients has been debated. A recent change in our ICU allowed further investigation. Methods Pre-move ICU-A and pre-move ICU-B were open-plan units. In March 2007, ICU-A moved to single-patient rooms (post-move ICU-A). ICU-B remained unchanged (post-move ICU-B). The same physicians cover both ICUs. Cultures of specified resistant organisms in surveillance or clinical cultures from consecutive patients staying >48 hours were compared for the different ICUs and periods to assess the effect of ICU design on acquisition of resistant organisms. Results Data were collected for 62, 62, 44 and 39 patients from pre-move ICU-A, post-move ICU-A, pre-move ICU-B and post-move ICU-B, respectively. Fewer post-move ICU-A patients acquired resistant organisms (3/62, 5%) compared with post-move ICU-B patients (7/39, 18%; P = 0.043, P = 0.011 using survival analysis) or pre-move ICU-A patients (14/62, 23%; P = 0.004, P = 0.012 on survival analysis). Only the admission period was significant for acquisition of resistant organisms comparing pre-move ICU-A with post-move ICU-A (hazard ratio = 5.18, 95% confidence interval = 1.03 to 16.06; P = 0.025). More antibiotic-free days were recorded in post-move ICU-A (median = 3, interquartile range = 0 to 5) versus post-move ICU-B (median = 0, interquartile range = 0 to 4; P = 0.070) or pre-move ICU-A (median = 0, interquartile range = 0 to 4; P = 0.017). Adequate hand hygiene was observed on 140/242 (58%) occasions in post-move ICU-A versus 23/66 (35%) occasions in post-move ICU-B (P < 0.001). Conclusions Improved ICU design, and particularly use of single-patient rooms, decreases acquisition of resistant bacteria and antibiotic use. This observation should be considered in future ICU design. PMID:21914222
Levin, Phillip D; Golovanevski, Mila; Moses, Allon E; Sprung, Charles L; Benenson, Shmuel
The role of ICU design and particularly single-patient rooms in decreasing bacterial transmission between ICU patients has been debated. A recent change in our ICU allowed further investigation. Pre-move ICU-A and pre-move ICU-B were open-plan units. In March 2007, ICU-A moved to single-patient rooms (post-move ICU-A). ICU-B remained unchanged (post-move ICU-B). The same physicians cover both ICUs. Cultures of specified resistant organisms in surveillance or clinical cultures from consecutive patients staying >48 hours were compared for the different ICUs and periods to assess the effect of ICU design on acquisition of resistant organisms. Data were collected for 62, 62, 44 and 39 patients from pre-move ICU-A, post-move ICU-A, pre-move ICU-B and post-move ICU-B, respectively. Fewer post-move ICU-A patients acquired resistant organisms (3/62, 5%) compared with post-move ICU-B patients (7/39, 18%; P = 0.043, P = 0.011 using survival analysis) or pre-move ICU-A patients (14/62, 23%; P = 0.004, P = 0.012 on survival analysis). Only the admission period was significant for acquisition of resistant organisms comparing pre-move ICU-A with post-move ICU-A (hazard ratio = 5.18, 95% confidence interval = 1.03 to 16.06; P = 0.025). More antibiotic-free days were recorded in post-move ICU-A (median = 3, interquartile range = 0 to 5) versus post-move ICU-B (median = 0, interquartile range = 0 to 4; P = 0.070) or pre-move ICU-A (median = 0, interquartile range = 0 to 4; P = 0.017). Adequate hand hygiene was observed on 140/242 (58%) occasions in post-move ICU-A versus 23/66 (35%) occasions in post-move ICU-B (P < 0.001). Improved ICU design, and particularly use of single-patient rooms, decreases acquisition of resistant bacteria and antibiotic use. This observation should be considered in future ICU design.
Of 120 female and 149 male master of business administration (MBA) students, women performed significantly less well on the Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT). There were no differences in overall MBA grade point average, indicating no strong correlation between the GMAT and MBA performance. (SK)
trend. Although limited by available data, several significant findings were noted. Women diagnosed with Bulimia Nervosa (BN) had significantly higher...admission Global Assessment of Functioning versus women with Anorexia Nervosa (AN); those with AN were positively linked to a family history of mood
Anderson, Amie K.
The purpose of this study was to determine if significant relationships exist for any of the variables, age, gender, previous GPA, test scores (ACT, Compass), number of accumulated credits, and student success in Biology. This study strived to determine what academic/admissions data can be used to determine the likelihood of student success in…
Coward, Raymond T.
Uses data from the Longitudinal Studies on Aging (1984-90) to examine a sample who at baseline lived in community settings and reported problems with urinary incontinence (n=719). Analyses indicate that residents of less urbanized and more thinly populated nonmetropolitan counties were more likely to have a nursing home admission than others. (JPS)
Friedman, Susan M.; Steinwachs, Donald M.; Rathouz, Paul J.; Burton, Lynda C.; Mukamel, Dana B.
Long term care in a nursing home prior to enrollment in PACE remain at high risk of readmission, despite the availability of comprehensive services. This study determined overall risk and predictors of long-term nursing home admission within the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). Design and Methods: Data PACE records for 4,646…
Chatindiara, Idah; Allen, Jacqueline; Popman, Amy; Patel, Darshan; Richter, Marilize; Kruger, Marlena; Wham, Carol
Malnutrition in patients admitted to hospital may have detrimental effects on recovery and healing. Malnutrition is preceded by a state of malnutrition risk, yet malnutrition risk is often not detected during admission. The aim of the current study was to investigate the magnitude and potential predictors of malnutrition risk in older adults, at hospital admission. A cross-sectional was study conducted in 234 older adults (age ≥ 65 or ≥ 55 for Māori or Pacific ethnicity) at admission to hospital in Auckland, New Zealand. Assessment of malnutrition risk status was performed using the Mini Nutritional Assessment Short-Form (MNA®-SF), dysphagia risk by the Eating Assessment Tool (EAT-10), muscle strength by hand grip strength and cognitive status by the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) tool. Among 234 participants, mean age 83.6 ± 7.6 years, 46.6% were identified as at malnutrition risk and 26.9% malnourished. After adjusting for age, gender and ethnicity, the study identified [prevalence ratio (95% confidence interval)] high dysphagia risk [EAT-10 score: 0.98 (0.97-0.99)], low body mass index [kg/m 2 : 1.02 (1.02-1.03)], low muscle strength [hand grip strength, kg: 1.01 (1.00-1.02)] and decline in cognition [MoCA score: 1.01 (1.00-1.02)] as significant predictors of malnutrition risk in older adults at hospital admission. Among older adults recently admitted to the hospital, almost three-quarters were malnourished or at malnutrition risk. As the majority (88%) of participants were admitted from the community, this illustrates the need for routine nutrition screening both at hospital admission and in community-dwelling older adults. Factors such as dysphagia, unintentional weight loss, decline in muscle strength, and poor cognition may indicate increased risk of malnutrition.
Chang, Chih-Hsiang; Fan, Pei-Chun; Chang, Ming-Yang; Tian, Ya-Chung; Hung, Cheng-Chieh; Fang, Ji-Tseng; Yang, Chih-Wei; Chen, Yung-Chang
Introduction Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common and serious complication in intensive care unit (ICU) patients and also often part of a multiple organ failure syndrome. The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score is an excellent tool for assessing the extent of organ dysfunction in critically ill patients. This study aimed to evaluate the outcome prediction ability of SOFA and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III score in ICU patients with AKI. Methods A total of 543 critically ill patients were admitted to the medical ICU of a tertiary-care hospital from July 2007 to June 2008. Demographic, clinical and laboratory variables were prospectively recorded for post hoc analysis as predictors of survival on the first day of ICU admission. Results One hundred and eighty-seven (34.4%) patients presented with AKI on the first day of ICU admission based on the risk of renal failure, injury to kidney, failure of kidney function, loss of kidney function, and end-stage renal failure (RIFLE) classification. Major causes of the ICU admissions involved respiratory failure (58%). Overall in-ICU mortality was 37.9% and the hospital mortality was 44.7%. The predictive accuracy for ICU mortality of SOFA (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves: 0.815±0.032) was as good as APACHE III in the AKI group. However, cumulative survival rates at 6-month follow-up following hospital discharge differed significantly (p<0.001) for SOFA score ≤10 vs. ≥11 in these ICU patients with AKI. Conclusions For patients coexisting with AKI admitted to ICU, this work recommends application of SOFA by physicians to assess ICU mortality because of its practicality and low cost. A SOFA score of ≥ “11” on ICU day 1 should be considered an indicator of negative short-term outcome. PMID:25279844
Ekmekci, Ahmet; Cicek, Gokhan; Uluganyan, Mahmut; Gungor, Baris; Osman, Faizel; Ozcan, Kazim Serhan; Bozbay, Mehmet; Ertas, Gokhan; Zencirci, Aycan; Sayar, Nurten; Eren, Mehmet
Admission hyperglycemia is associated with high inhospital and long-term adverse events in patients that undergo primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We aimed to evaluate whether hyperglycemia predicts inhospital mortality. We prospectively analyzed 503 consecutive patients. The patients were divided into tertiles according to the admission glucose levels. Tertile I: glucose <118 mg/dL (n = 166), tertile II: glucose 118 to 145 mg/dL (n = 168), and tertile III: glucose >145 mg/dL (n = 169). Inhospital mortality was 0 in tertile I, 2 in tertile II, and 9 in tertile III (P < .02). Cardiogenic shock occurred more frequently in tertile III compared to tertiles I and II (10% vs 4.1% and 0.6%, respectively, P = .01). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that patients in tertile III had significantly higher risk of inhospital major adverse cardiac events compared to patients in tertile I (odds ratio: 9.55, P < .02). Admission hyperglycemia predicts inhospital adverse cardiac events in mortality and acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in patients that underwent primary PCI.
Azeredo, Leandro M; Nemer, Sérgio N; Barbas, Carmen Sv; Caldeira, Jefferson B; Noé, Rosângela; Guimarães, Bruno L; Caldas, Célia P
With increasing life expectancy and ICU admission of elderly patients, mechanical ventilation, and weaning trials have increased worldwide. We evaluated a cohort with 479 subjects in the ICU. Patients younger than 18 y, tracheostomized, or with neurologic diseases were excluded, resulting in 331 subjects. Subjects ≥70 y old were considered elderly, whereas those <70 y old were considered non-elderly. Besides the conventional weaning indexes, we evaluated the performance of the integrative weaning index (IWI). The probability of successful weaning was investigated using relative risk and logistic regression. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used to calibrate and the C statistic was calculated to evaluate the association between predicted probabilities and observed proportions in the logistic regression model. Prevalence of successful weaning in the sample was 83.7%. There was no difference in mortality between elderly and non-elderly subjects ( P = .16), in days of mechanical ventilation ( P = .22) and days of weaning ( P = .55). In elderly subjects, the IWI was the only respiratory variable associated with mechanical ventilation weaning in this population ( P < .001). The IWI was the independent variable found in weaning of elderly subjects that may contribute to the critical moment of this population in intensive care. Copyright © 2017 by Daedalus Enterprises.
Kontou, Paschalina; Kuti, Joseph L; Nicolau, David P
Severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is usually defined as pneumonia that requires intensive care unit (ICU) admission; the primary pathogen responsible for ICU admission is Streptococcus pneumoniae. In this study, the 2007 Infectious Diseases Society of America/American Thoracic Society (IDSA/ATS) consensus criteria for ICU admission were compared with other severity scores in predicting ICU admission and mortality. We retrospectively studied 158 patients with pneumococcal CAP (1999-2003). Clinical and laboratory features at the emergency department were recorded and used to calculate the 2007 IDSA/ATS rule, the 2001 ATS rule, 2 modified 2007 IDSA/ATS rules, the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), and the CURB (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure) score. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value (NPV) were assessed for the various indices. We also determined the criteria that were independently predictive of ICU admission and of mortality in our population. The 2007 IDSA/ATS criteria performed as well as the 2001 ATS rule in predicting ICU admission both demonstrated high sensitivity (90%) and NPV (97%). For the prediction of mortality, the best tool proved to be the PSI score (sensitivity, 95%; NPV, 99%). The variables associated with ICU admission in this patient population included tachypnea, confusion, Pao(2)/Fio(2) ratio of 250 or lower, and hypotension requiring fluid resuscitation. Mechanical ventilation and PSI class V were independently associated with mortality. This study confirms the usefulness of the new criteria in predicting severe CAP. The 2001 ATS criteria seem an attractive alternative because they are simple and as effective as the 2007 IDSA/ATS criteria.
Huang, Wei; Altaf, Kiran; Jin, Tao; Xiong, Jun-Jie; Wen, Li; Javed, Muhammad A; Johnstone, Marianne; Xue, Ping; Halloran, Christopher M; Xia, Qing
AIM: To undertake a meta-analysis on the value of urinary trypsinogen activation peptide (uTAP) in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis on admission. METHODS: Major databases including Medline, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials in the Cochrane Library were searched to identify all relevant studies from January 1990 to January 2013. Pooled sensitivity, specificity and the diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) with 95%CI were calculated for each study and were compared to other systems/biomarkers if mentioned within the same study. Summary receiver-operating curves were conducted and the area under the curve (AUC) was evaluated. RESULTS: In total, six studies of uTAP with a cut-off value of 35 nmol/L were included in this meta-analysis. Overall, the pooled sensitivity and specificity of uTAP for predicting severity of acute pancreatitis, at time of admission, was 71% and 75%, respectively (AUC = 0.83, DOR = 8.67, 95%CI: 3.70-20.33). When uTAP was compared with plasma C-reactive protein, the pooled sensitivity, specificity, AUC and DOR were 0.64 vs 0.67, 0.77 vs 0.75, 0.82 vs 0.79 and 6.27 vs 6.32, respectively. Similarly, the pooled sensitivity, specificity, AUC and DOR of uTAP vs Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II within the first 48 h of admission were found to be 0.64 vs 0.69, 0.77 vs 0.61, 0.82 vs 0.73 and 6.27 vs 4.61, respectively. CONCLUSION: uTAP has the potential to act as a stratification marker on admission for differentiating disease severity of acute pancreatitis. PMID:23901239
Tabak, Ying P; Johannes, Richard S; Sun, Xiaowu; Nunez, Carlos M; McDonald, L Clifford
To predict the likelihood of hospital-onset Clostridium difficile infection (HO-CDI) based on patient clinical presentations at admission Retrospective data analysis Six US acute care hospitals Adult inpatients We used clinical data collected at the time of admission in electronic health record (EHR) systems to develop and validate a HO-CDI predictive model. The outcome measure was HO-CDI cases identified by a nonduplicate positive C. difficile toxin assay result with stool specimens collected >48 hours after inpatient admission. We fit a logistic regression model to predict the risk of HO-CDI. We validated the model using 1,000 bootstrap simulations. Among 78,080 adult admissions, 323 HO-CDI cases were identified (ie, a rate of 4.1 per 1,000 admissions). The logistic regression model yielded 14 independent predictors, including hospital community onset CDI pressure, patient age ≥65, previous healthcare exposures, CDI in previous admission, admission to the intensive care unit, albumin ≤3 g/dL, creatinine >2.0 mg/dL, bands >32%, platelets ≤150 or >420 109/L, and white blood cell count >11,000 mm3. The model had a c-statistic of 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.81) with good calibration. Among 79% of patients with risk scores of 0-7, 19 HO-CDIs occurred per 10,000 admissions; for patients with risk scores >20, 623 HO-CDIs occurred per 10,000 admissions (P<.0001). Using clinical parameters available at the time of admission, this HO-CDI model demonstrated good predictive ability, and it may have utility as an early risk identification tool for HO-CDI preventive interventions and outcome comparisons.
Chamorro, C; Romera, M A
Pain and fear are still the most common memories that refer patients after ICU admission. Recently an important politician named the UCI as the branch of the hell. It is necessary to carry out profound changes in terms of direct relationships with patients and their relatives, as well as changes in environmental design and work and visit organization, to banish the vision that our society about the UCI. In a step which advocates for early mobilization of critical patients is necessary to improve analgesia and sedation strategies. The ICU is the best place for administering and monitoring analgesic drugs. The correct analgesia should not be a pending matter of the intensivist but a mandatory course. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.
Verlaan, S; Van Ancum, J M; Pierik, V D; Van Wijngaarden, J P; Scheerman, K; Meskers, C G M; Maier, A B
Older adults with sarcopenia and malnutrition are at risk for co-morbidities, hospitalization, institutionalization, and mortality. In case of hospitalization, risks may be further increased, especially in case of suboptimal dietary intake. The aim of our study was to assess whether muscle mass, muscle strength, functional performance, and nutritional status at hospital admission were associated with survival and independent living among older patients three months after discharge. The EMPOWER study was an observational, prospective and longitudinal inception cohort of patients older than 70 years admitted to the VU University Medical Centre in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Patients were assessed for demographic and clinical characteristics, measurements of muscle mass (by bioelectrical impedance analysis), handgrip strength (by dynamometry), functional performance (self-reported ability to walk), and screened for risk of malnutrition (by SNAQ). Three months after hospital discharge, survival and living situation were assessed by a follow-up telephone interview. The majority of the 378 patients enrolled were living independently at the time of hospitalization (90%) and three months post-discharge (83%). Fifty-two patients died in the period from hospital admission to three months after discharge (survival rate 86%). Higher absolute muscle mass measures and not being malnourished at admission were significantly associated with the likelihood of survival. Handgrip strength and self-reported ability to walk were positively associated with a higher chance of living independently three months after discharge, but not with survival. Older patients with greater muscle mass and without malnutrition at hospital admission had a higher survival rate, while measures of muscle strength and functional performance were predictive for living independently three months after hospital discharge. Different components of muscle health relate to different relevant outcomes and therefore
Whitehouse, Tony; Hodson, James; Pemberton, Philip; Veenith, Tonny; Snelson, Catherine; Bion, Julian; Rubenfeld, Gordon D
We hypothesized that intensivists unfamiliar with an ICU team and the context of that ICU would affect patient outcomes. We examined differences in mortality when ICU patients were admitted under intensivists routinely working in that ICU and compared with those admitted by intensivists familiar with an ICU elsewhere in the same hospital. A 5-year natural experimental crossover study involving patients admitted to four ICUs in a large U.K. teaching hospital. During a period of service reconfiguration, intensivists routinely rostered to work in one ICU worked in another of the hospital's four ICUs. "Home" intensivists were those who continued to work in their usual ICU; "visitor" intensivists were those who delivered care in an unfamiliar ICU. Patient data were obtained from electronic patient records to provide analysis on sex, age, admission Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, date and time of admission, and admission type (elective, transfer, or unplanned). We analyzed 9,981 admissions to four separate ICUs over a 5-year period. In total, 34.5% of patients were admitted by intensivists working in nonfamiliar surroundings. Visitor intensivists admitted patients with similar age and gender distributions but with greater physiologic derangement (mean Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, 4.1 ± 2.8 vs 3.9 ± 2.8; p < 0.001) than home intensivists. Overall ICU mortality rates were higher in visitor intensivists, albeit not significantly so (11.5% vs 10.2%; p = 0.052). However, when the ICUs were analyzed separately, visitor mortality rates were found to be significantly higher than for home intensivists in two of the four ICUs (p = 0.017, 0.006). A multivariable analysis adjusting for confounding factors and the clustering of consultants revealed that the overall mortality rate was significantly higher for visitors (odds ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.02-1.37; p = 0.024). A significant interaction between the ICU and visitor status was also detected (p
Kadmon, Guni; Resch, Franz; Duelli, Roman; Kadmon, Martina
Background: The school-leaving GPA and the time since completion of secondary education are the major criteria for admission to German medical schools. However, the predictive value of the school-leaving grade and the admission delay have not been thoroughly examined since the amendment of the Medical Licensing Regulations and the introduction of reformed curricula in 2002. Detailed information on the prognosis of the different admission groups is also missing. Aim: To examine the predictive values of the school-leaving grade and the age at enrolment for academic performance and continuity throughout the reformed medical course. Methods: The study includes the central admission groups “GPA-best” and “delayed admission” as well as the primary and secondary local admission groups of three consecutive cohorts. The relationship between the criteria academic performance and continuity and the predictors school-leaving GPA, enrolment age, and admission group affiliation were examined up to the beginning of the final clerkship year. Results: The academic performance and the prolongation of the pre-clinical part of undergraduate training were significantly related to the school-leaving GPA. Conversely, the dropout rate was related to age at enrolment. The students of the GPA-best group and the primary local admission group performed best and had the lowest dropout rates. The students of the delayed admission group and secondary local admission group performed significantly worse. More than 20% of these students dropped out within the pre-clinical course, half of them due to poor academic performance. However, the academic performance of all of the admission groups was highly variable and only about 35% of the students of each group reached the final clerkship year within the regular time. Discussion: The school-leaving grade and age appear to have different prognostic implications for academic performance and continuity. Both factors have consequences for the
Fanaroff, Alexander C; Chen, Anita Y; Thomas, Laine E; Pieper, Karen S; Garratt, Kirk N; Peterson, Eric D; Newby, L Kristin; de Lemos, James A; Kosiborod, Mikhail N; Amsterdam, Ezra A; Wang, Tracy Y
Intensive care unit (ICU) use for initially stable patients presenting with non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) varies widely across hospitals and minimally correlates with severity of illness. We aimed to develop a bedside risk score to assist in identifying high-risk patients with NSTEMI for ICU admission. Using the Acute Coronary Treatment and Intervention Outcomes Network (ACTION) Registry linked to Medicare data, we identified patients with NSTEMI aged ≥65 years without cardiogenic shock or cardiac arrest on presentation. Complications requiring ICU care were defined as subsequent development of cardiac arrest, shock, high-grade atrioventricular block, respiratory failure, stroke, or death during the index hospitalization. We developed and validated a model and integer risk score (Acute Coronary Treatment and Intervention Outcomes Network (ACTION) ICU risk score) that uses variables present at hospital admission to predict requirement for ICU care. Of 29 973 patients with NSTEMI, 4282 (14%) developed a complication requiring ICU-level care, yet 12 879 (43%) received care in an ICU. Signs or symptoms of heart failure, initial heart rate, initial systolic blood pressure, initial troponin, initial serum creatinine, prior revascularization, chronic lung disease, ST-segment depression, and age had statistically significant associations with requirement for ICU care after adjusting for other risk factors. The ACTION ICU risk score had a C-statistic of 0.72. It identified 11% of patients as having very high risk (>30%) of developing complications requiring ICU care and 49% as having low likelihood (<10%) of requiring an ICU. The ACTION ICU risk score quantifies the risk of initially stable patients with NSTEMI developing a complication requiring ICU care, and could be used to more effectively allocate limited ICU resources. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.
Hars, Mélany; Audet, Marie-Claude; Herrmann, François; De Chassey, Jean; Rizzoli, René; Reny, Jean-Luc; Gold, Gabriel; Ferrari, Serge; Trombetti, Andrea
Falls are common among older inpatients and remain a great challenge for hospitals. Despite the relevance of physical impairments to falls, the prognostic value of performance-based functional measures for in-hospital falls and injurious falls remains unknown. This study aimed to determine the predictive ability and accuracy of various functional tests administered at or close to admission in a geriatric hospital to identify in-hospital fallers and injurious fallers. In this prospective study, conducted in a geriatric hospital in Geneva, Switzerland, 807 inpatients (mean age 85.0 years) were subjected to a battery of functional tests administered by physiotherapists within 3 days (interquartile range 1 to 6) of admission, including Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), simplified Tinetti, and Timed Up and Go tests. Patients were prospectively followed up for falls and injurious falls until discharge using mandatory standardized incident report forms and electronic patients' records. During a median length of hospital stay of 23 days (interquartile range 14 to 36), 329 falls occurred in 189 (23.4%) patients, including 161 injurious falls of which 24 were serious. In-hospital fallers displayed significantly poorer functional performances at admission on all tests compared with non-fallers (p < 0.001 for all). In multivariate analysis controlling for age, sex, previous falls, and fall as cause of admission, poorer functional performances on all functional tests predicted in-hospital falls and injurious falls (p < 0.001 for all). The SPPB only significantly predicted serious injurious falls (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60-0.96) and fractures (adjusted OR = 0.76; 95% CI 0.59-0.98). In conclusion, poor functional performances, as assessed by SPPB, are independent predictors of in-hospital falls, injurious falls, and fractures in patients admitted to a geriatric hospital. These findings should help to design
Wieske, Luuk; Witteveen, Esther; Verhamme, Camiel; Dettling-Ihnenfeldt, Daniela S; van der Schaaf, Marike; Schultz, Marcus J; van Schaik, Ivo N; Horn, Janneke
An early diagnosis of Intensive Care Unit-acquired weakness (ICU-AW) using muscle strength assessment is not possible in most critically ill patients. We hypothesized that development of ICU-AW can be predicted reliably two days after ICU admission, using patient characteristics, early available clinical parameters, laboratory results and use of medication as parameters. Newly admitted ICU patients mechanically ventilated ≥2 days were included in this prospective observational cohort study. Manual muscle strength was measured according to the Medical Research Council (MRC) scale, when patients were awake and attentive. ICU-AW was defined as an average MRC score <4. A prediction model was developed by selecting predictors from an a-priori defined set of candidate predictors, based on known risk factors. Discriminative performance of the prediction model was evaluated, validated internally and compared to the APACHE IV and SOFA score. Of 212 included patients, 103 developed ICU-AW. Highest lactate levels, treatment with any aminoglycoside in the first two days after admission and age were selected as predictors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the prediction model was 0.71 after internal validation. The new prediction model improved discrimination compared to the APACHE IV and the SOFA score. The new early prediction model for ICU-AW using a set of 3 easily available parameters has fair discriminative performance. This model needs external validation.
Witteveen, Esther; Wieske, Luuk; Sommers, Juultje; Spijkstra, Jan-Jaap; de Waard, Monique C; Endeman, Henrik; Rijkenberg, Saskia; de Ruijter, Wouter; Sleeswijk, Mengalvio; Verhamme, Camiel; Schultz, Marcus J; van Schaik, Ivo N; Horn, Janneke
An early diagnosis of intensive care unit-acquired weakness (ICU-AW) is often not possible due to impaired consciousness. To avoid a diagnostic delay, we previously developed a prediction model, based on single-center data from 212 patients (development cohort), to predict ICU-AW at 2 days after ICU admission. The objective of this study was to investigate the external validity of the original prediction model in a new, multicenter cohort and, if necessary, to update the model. Newly admitted ICU patients who were mechanically ventilated at 48 hours after ICU admission were included. Predictors were prospectively recorded, and the outcome ICU-AW was defined by an average Medical Research Council score <4. In the validation cohort, consisting of 349 patients, we analyzed performance of the original prediction model by assessment of calibration and discrimination. Additionally, we updated the model in this validation cohort. Finally, we evaluated a new prediction model based on all patients of the development and validation cohort. Of 349 analyzed patients in the validation cohort, 190 (54%) developed ICU-AW. Both model calibration and discrimination of the original model were poor in the validation cohort. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC-ROC) was 0.60 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.54-0.66). Model updating methods improved calibration but not discrimination. The new prediction model, based on all patients of the development and validation cohort (total of 536 patients) had a fair discrimination, AUC-ROC: 0.70 (95% CI: 0.66-0.75). The previously developed prediction model for ICU-AW showed poor performance in a new independent multicenter validation cohort. Model updating methods improved calibration but not discrimination. The newly derived prediction model showed fair discrimination. This indicates that early prediction of ICU-AW is still challenging and needs further attention.
Background The debate on appropriate financing systems in inpatient psychiatry is ongoing. In this context, it is important to control resource use in terms of length of stay (LOS), which is the most costly factor in inpatient care and the one that can be influenced most easily. Previous studies have shown that psychiatric diagnoses provide only limited justification for explaining variation in LOS, and it has been suggested that measures such as psychopathology might be more appropriate to predict resource use. Therefore, we investigated the relationship between LOS and psychopathological syndromes or symptoms at admission as well as other characteristics such as sociodemographic and clinical variables. Methods We considered routine medical data of patients admitted to the Psychiatric University Hospital Zurich in the years 2008 and 2009. Complete data on psychopathology at hospital admission were available in 3,220 inpatient episodes. A subsample of 2,939 inpatient episodes was considered in final statistical models, including psychopathology as well as complete datasets of further measures (e.g. sociodemographic, clinical, treatment-related and psychosocial variables). We used multivariate linear as well as logistic regression analysis with forward selection procedure to determine the predictors of LOS. Results All but two syndrome scores (mania, hostility) were positively related to the length of stay. Final statistical models showed that syndromes or symptoms explained about 5% of the variation in length of stay. The inclusion of syndromes or symptoms as well as basic treatment variables and other factors led to an explained variation of up to 25%. Conclusions Psychopathological syndromes and symptoms at admission and further characteristics only explained a small proportion of the length of inpatient stay. Thus, according to our sample, psychopathology might not be suitable as a primary indicator for estimating LOS and contingent costs. This might be
Watanabe, Yoko; Suda, Satoshi; Kanamaru, Takuya; Katsumata, Toshiya; Okubo, Seiji; Kaneko, Tomohiro; Mii, Akiko; Sakai, Yukinao; Katayama, Yasuo; Kimura, Kazumi; Tsuruoka, Shuichi
Albuminuria and a low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are widely recognized indices of kidney dysfunction and have been linked to cardiovascular events, including stroke. We evaluated albuminuria, measured using the urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR), and the eGFR in the acute phase of ischaemic stroke, and investigated the clinical characteristics of ischaemic stroke patients with and those without kidney dysfunction. The study included 422 consecutive patients admitted between June 2010 and May 2012. General blood and urine examinations were performed at admission. Kidney dysfunction was defined as a low eGFR (<60 mL/min per 1.73 m 2 ), high albuminuria (≥30 mg/g creatinine), or both. Neurological severity was evaluated using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) at admission and the modified Rankin scale (mRS) at discharge. A poor outcome was defined as a mRS score of 3-5 or death. The impacts of the eGFR and UACR on outcomes at discharge were evaluated using multiple logistic regression analysis. Kidney dysfunction was diagnosed in 278 of the 422 patients (65.9%). The eGFR was significantly lower and UACR was significantly higher in patients with a poor outcome than in those with a good outcome. In multivariate analyses performed after adjusting for confounding factors, UACR >31.2 mg/g creatinine (OR, 2.58; 95% CI, 1.52-4.43; P = 0.0005) was independently associated with a poor outcome, while a low eGFR was not associated. A high UACR at admission may predict a poor outcome at discharge in patients with acute ischaemic stroke. © 2016 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.
Warnke, Ingeborg; Rössler, Wulf; Herwig, Uwe
The debate on appropriate financing systems in inpatient psychiatry is ongoing. In this context, it is important to control resource use in terms of length of stay (LOS), which is the most costly factor in inpatient care and the one that can be influenced most easily. Previous studies have shown that psychiatric diagnoses provide only limited justification for explaining variation in LOS, and it has been suggested that measures such as psychopathology might be more appropriate to predict resource use. Therefore, we investigated the relationship between LOS and psychopathological syndromes or symptoms at admission as well as other characteristics such as sociodemographic and clinical variables. We considered routine medical data of patients admitted to the Psychiatric University Hospital Zurich in the years 2008 and 2009. Complete data on psychopathology at hospital admission were available in 3,220 inpatient episodes. A subsample of 2,939 inpatient episodes was considered in final statistical models, including psychopathology as well as complete datasets of further measures (e.g. sociodemographic, clinical, treatment-related and psychosocial variables). We used multivariate linear as well as logistic regression analysis with forward selection procedure to determine the predictors of LOS. All but two syndrome scores (mania, hostility) were positively related to the length of stay. Final statistical models showed that syndromes or symptoms explained about 5% of the variation in length of stay. The inclusion of syndromes or symptoms as well as basic treatment variables and other factors led to an explained variation of up to 25%. Psychopathological syndromes and symptoms at admission and further characteristics only explained a small proportion of the length of inpatient stay. Thus, according to our sample, psychopathology might not be suitable as a primary indicator for estimating LOS and contingent costs. This might be considered in the development of future costing
Stapel, Sandra N; Looijaard, Wilhelmus G P M; Dekker, Ingeborg M; Girbes, Armand R J; Weijs, Peter J M; Oudemans-van Straaten, Heleen M
A low bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA)-derived phase angle (PA) predicts morbidity and mortality in different patient groups. An association between PA and long-term mortality in ICU patients has not been demonstrated before. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether PA on ICU admission independently predicts 90-day mortality. This prospective observational study was performed in a mixed university ICU. BIA was performed in 196 patients within 24 h of ICU admission. To test the independent association between PA and 90-day mortality, logistic regression analysis was performed using the APACHE IV predicted mortality as confounder. The optimal cutoff value of PA for mortality prediction was determined by ROC curve analysis. Using this cutoff value, patients were categorized into low or normal PA group and the association with 90-day mortality was tested again. The PA of survivors was higher than of the non-survivors (5.0° ± 1.3° vs. 4.1° ± 1.2°, p < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve of PA for 90-day mortality was 0.70 (CI 0.59-0.80). PA was associated with 90-day mortality (OR = 0.56, CI: 0.38-0.77, p = 0.001) on univariate logistic regression analysis and also after adjusting for BMI, gender, age, and APACHE IV on multivariable logistic regression (OR = 0.65, CI: 0.44-0.96, p = 0.031). A PA < 4.8° was an independent predictor of 90-day mortality (adjusted OR = 3.65, CI: 1.34-9.93, p = 0.011). Phase angle at ICU admission is an independent predictor of 90-day mortality. This biological marker can aid in long-term mortality risk assessment of critically ill patients.
Mahmoudian-Dehkordi, Amin; Sadat, Somayeh
Intensive Care Units (ICU) are costly yet critical hospital departments that should be available to care for patients needing highly specialized critical care. Shortage of ICU beds in many regions of the world and the constant fire-fighting to make these beds available through various ICU management policies motivated this study. The paper discusses the application of a generic system dynamics model of emergency patient flow in a typical hospital, populated with empirical evidence found in the medical and hospital administration literature, to explore the dynamics of intended and unintended consequences of such ICU management policies under a natural disaster crisis scenario. ICU management policies that can be implemented by a single hospital on short notice, namely premature transfer from ICU, boarding in ward, and general ward admission control, along with their possible combinations, are modeled and their impact on managerial and health outcome measures are investigated. The main insight out of the study is that the general ward admission control policy outperforms the rest of ICU management policies under such crisis scenarios with regards to reducing total mortality, which is counter intuitive for hospital administrators as this policy is not very effective at alleviating the symptoms of the problem, namely high ED and ICU occupancy rates that are closely monitored by hospital management particularly in times of crisis. A multivariate sensitivity analysis on parameters with diverse range of values in the literature found the superiority of the general ward admission control to hold true in every scenario.
Salem, Raneem O; Al-Mously, Najwa; AlFadil, Sara; Baalash, Amal
Various factors affect medical students' performance during clinical phase. Identifying these factors would help in mentoring weak students and help in selection process for residency programmes. Our study objective is to evaluate the impact of pre-admission criteria, and pre-clinical grade point average (GPA) on undergraduate medical students' performance during clinical phase. This study has a cross-sectional design that includes fifth- and sixth-year female medical students (71). Data of clinical and pre-clinical GPA in medical school and pre-admission to medical school tests scores were collected. A significant correlation between clinical GPA with the pre-clinical GPA was observed (p < 0.05). Such significant correlation was not seen with other variables under study. A regression analysis was performed, and the only significant predictor of students clinical performance was the pre-clinical GPA (p < 0.001). However, no significant difference between students' clinical and pre-clinical GPA for both cohorts was observed (p > 0.05). Pre-clinical GPA is strongly correlated with and can predict medical students' performance during clinical years. Our study highlighted the importance of evaluating the academic performances of students in pre-clinical years before they move into clinical years in order to identify weak students to mentor them and monitor their progress.
Zhao, Xiaohui; Oppler, Scott; Dunleavy, Dana; Kroopnick, Marc
This study investigated the validity of four approaches (the average, most recent, highest-within-administration, and highest-across-administration approaches) of using repeaters' Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) scores to predict Step 1 scores. Using the differential predication method, this study investigated the magnitude of differences in the expected Step 1 total scores between MCAT nonrepeaters and three repeater groups (two-time, three-time, and four-time test takers) for the four scoring approaches. For the average score approach, matriculants with the same MCAT average are expected to achieve similar Step 1 total scores regardless of whether the individual attempted the MCAT exam one or multiple times. For the other three approaches, repeaters are expected to achieve lower Step 1 scores than nonrepeaters; for a given MCAT score, as the number of attempts increases, the expected Step 1 decreases. The effect was strongest for the highest-across-administration approach, followed by the highest-within-administration approach, and then the most recent approach. Using the average score is the best approach for considering repeaters' MCAT scores in medical school admission decisions.
Landry, Elizabeth K; Gabriel, Rodney A; Beutler, Sascha; Dutton, Richard P; Urman, Richard D
Currently, there are only a few retrospective, single-institution studies that have addressed the prevalence and risk factors associated with unplanned admissions to the pediatric intensive care unit (ICU) after surgery. Based on the limited amount of studies, it appears that airway and respiratory complications put a child at increased risk for unplanned ICU admission. A more extensive and diverse analysis of unplanned postoperative admissions to the ICU is needed to address risk factors that have yet to be revealed by the current literature. To establish a rate of unplanned postoperative ICU admissions in pediatric patients using a large, multi-institution data set and to further characterize the associated risk factors. Data from the National Anesthesia Clinical Outcomes Registry were analyzed. We recorded the overall risk of unplanned postoperative ICU admission in patients younger than 18 years and performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify the associated patient, surgical, and anesthetic-related characteristics. Of the 324 818 cases analyzed, 211 reported an unexpected ICU admission. There was an increased likelihood of unplanned postoperative ICU in infants (age <1 year) and children who were classified as American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification of III or IV. Likewise, longer case duration and cases requiring general anesthesia were also associated with unplanned ICU admissions. This study establishes a rate of unplanned ICU admission following surgery in the heterogeneous pediatric population. This is the first study to utilize such a large data set encompassing a wide range of practice environments to identify risk factors leading to unplanned postoperative ICU admissions. Our study revealed that patient, surgical, and anesthetic complexity each contributed to an increased number of unplanned ICU admissions in the pediatric population.
Iapichino, Gaetano; Corbella, Davide; Minelli, Cosetta; Mills, Gary H; Artigas, Antonio; Edbooke, David L; Pezzi, Angelo; Kesecioglu, Jozef; Patroniti, Nicolò; Baras, Mario; Sprung, Charles L
To identify factors influencing triage decisions and investigate whether admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) could reduce mortality compared with treatment on the ward. A multicentre cohort study in 11 university hospitals from seven countries, evaluating triage decisions and outcomes of patients referred for admission to ICU who were either accepted, or refused and treated on the ward. Confounding in the estimation of the effect of ICU admission on mortality was controlled by use of a propensity score approach, which adjusted for the probability of being admitted. Variability across centres was accounted for in both analyses of factors influencing ICU admission and effect of ICU admission on mortality. Eligible were 8,616 triages in 7,877 patients referred for ICU admission. Variables positively associated with probability of being admitted to ICU included: ventilators in ward; bed availability; Karnofsky score; absence of comorbidity; presence of haematological malignancy; emergency surgery and elective surgery (versus medical treatment); trauma, vascular involvement, liver involvement; acute physiologic score II; ICU treatment (versus ICU observation). Multiple triages during patient's hospital stay and age were negatively associated with ICU admission. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the model was 0.83 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.81-0.84], with Hosmer-Lemeshow test P = 0.300. ICU admission was associated with a statistically significant reduction of both 28-day mortality [odds ratio (OR): 0.73; 95% CI: 0.62-0.87] and 90-day mortality (0.79; 0.66-0.93). The benefit of ICU admission increased substantially in patients with greater severity of illness. We suggest that intensivists take great care to avoid ICU admission of patients judged not severe enough for ICU or with low performance status, and they tend to admit surgical patients more readily than medical patients. Interestingly, they do not judge age per se as
Venditti, Angelo; Ronk, Chanda; Kopenhaver, Tracey; Fetterman, Susan
Tele-intensive care unit (ICU) technology has been proven to bridge the gap between available resources and quality care for many health care systems across the country. Tele-ICUs allow the standardization of care and provide a second set of eyes traditionally not available in the ICU. A growing body of literature supports the use of tele-ICUs based on improved outcomes and reduction in errors. To date, the literature has not effectively outlined the limitations of this technology related to response to changes in patient care, interventions, and interaction with the care team. This information can potentially have a profound impact on service expectations. Some misconceptions about tele-ICU technology include the following: tele-ICU is "watching" 24 hours a day, 7 days a week; tele-ICU is a telemetry unit; tele-ICU is a stand-alone crisis intervention tool; tele-ICU decreases staffing at the bedside; tele-ICU clinical roles are clearly defined and understood; and tele-ICUs are not cost-effective to operate. This article outlines the purpose of tele-ICU technology, reviews outcomes, and "busts" myths about tele-ICU technology.
Lilly, Craig M; Motzkus, Christine; Rincon, Teresa; Cody, Shawn E; Landry, Karen; Irwin, Richard S
ICU telemedicine improves access to high-quality critical care, has substantial costs, and can change financial outcomes. Detailed information about financial outcomes and their trends over time following ICU telemedicine implementation and after the addition of logistic center function has not been published to our knowledge. Primary data were collected for consecutive adult patients of a single academic medical center. We compared clinical and financial outcomes across three groups that differed regarding telemedicine support: a group without ICU telemedicine support (pre-ICU intervention group), a group with ICU telemedicine support (ICU telemedicine group), and an ICU telemedicine group with added logistic center functions and support for quality-care standardization (logistic center group). The primary outcome was annual direct contribution margin defined as aggregated annual case revenue minus annual case direct costs (including operating costs of ICU telemedicine and its related programs). All monetary values were adjusted to 2015 US dollars using Producer Price Index for Health-Care Facilities. Annual case volume increased from 4,752 (pre-ICU telemedicine) to 5,735 (ICU telemedicine) and 6,581 (logistic center). The annual direct contribution margin improved from $7,921,584 (pre-ICU telemedicine) to $37,668,512 (ICU telemedicine) to $60,586,397 (logistic center) due to increased case volume, higher case revenue relative to direct costs, and shorter length of stay. The ability of properly modified ICU telemedicine programs to increase case volume and access to high-quality critical care with improved annual direct contribution margins suggests that there is a financial argument to encourage the wider adoption of ICU telemedicine. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Braxton, Carla C; Robinson, Celia N; Awad, Samir S
Escalation of commitment is a business term that describes the continued investment of resources into a project even after there is objective evidence of the project's impending failure. Escalation of commitment may be a contributor to high healthcare costs associated with critically ill patients as it has been shown that, despite almost certain futility, most ICU costs are incurred in the last week of life. Our objective was to determine if escalation of commitment occurs in healthcare settings, specifically in the surgical ICU. We hypothesize that factors previously identified in business and organizational psychology literature including self-justification, accountability, sunk costs, and cognitive dissonance result in escalation of commitment behavior in the surgical ICU setting resulting in increased utilization of resources and cost. A descriptive case study that illustrates common ICU narratives in which escalation of commitment can occur. In addition, we describe factors that are thought to contribute to escalation of commitment behaviors. Escalation of commitment behavior was observed with self-justification, accountability, and cognitive dissonance accounting for the majority of the behavior. Unlike in business decisions, sunk costs was not as evident. In addition, modulating factors such as personality, individual experience, culture, and gender were identified as contributors to escalation of commitment. Escalation of commitment occurs in the surgical ICU, resulting in significant expenditure of resources despite a predicted and often known poor outcome. Recognition of this phenomenon may lead to actions aimed at more rational decision making and may contribute to lowering healthcare costs. Investigation of objective measures that can help aid decision making in the surgical ICU is warranted.
Valverde-López, Francisco; Matas-Cobos, Ana M; Alegría-Motte, Carlos; Jiménez-Rosales, Rita; Úbeda-Muñoz, Margarita; Redondo-Cerezo, Eduardo
The study aims to assess and compare the predicting ability of some scores and biomarkers in acute pancreatitis. We prospectively collected data from 269 patients diagnosed of acute pancreatitis, admitted to Virgen de las Nieves University Hospital between June 2010 and June 2012. Blood urea nitrogen (BUN), C-reactive protein, and creatinine were measured on admission and after 48 h, lactate and bedside index for severity acute pancreatitis (BISAP) only on admission and RANSON within the first 48 h. Definitions from 2012 Atlanta Classification were used. Area under the curve (AUC) was calculated for each scoring system for predicting severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), mortality, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission, obtaining optimal cut-off values from the receiver operating characteristic curves. Eight (3%) patients died, 17 (6.3%) were classified as SAP, and 10 (3.7%) were admitted in ICU. BISAP was the best predictor on admission for SAP, mortality, and ICU admission with an AUC of 0.9 (95% CI 0.83-0.97); 0.97 (95% CI 0.95-0.99); and 0.89 (95% CI 0.79-0.99), respectively. After 48 h, BUN 48 h was the best predictor of SAP (AUC = 0.96 CI: 0.92-0.99); BUN 48 h and BISAP were the best predictors for mortality (AUC = 0.97 CI: 0.95-0.99) and creatinine 48 h for ICU admission (AUC = 0.96 CI: 0.92-0.99). Lactate showed an AUC of 0.79 (CI: 0.71-0.88), 0.87 (CI: 0.78-0.96), and 0.77 (CI: 0.67-0.87) for SAP, mortality, and ICU admission, respectively. All parameters were predictors for SAP, mortality, and ICU admission, but C-reactive protein on admission was only a significant predictor of SAP. Bedside index for severity acute pancreatitis is a good predictive system for SAP, mortality, and ICU admission, being useful for triaging patients for ICU management. Lactate could be useful for developing new scores. © 2017 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.
Weststrate, J T; Hop, W C; Aalbers, A G; Vreeling, A W; Bruining, H A
To evaluate whether the Waterlow pressure sore risk (PSR) scale has prognostic significance for intensive care patients. A prospective study. The surgical intensive care unit (ICU) of the University Hospital Rotterdam. Data were evaluated from 594 patients who had been admitted to the ICU during the year 1994. Each patient was assessed daily with respect to their Waterlow PSR score and the development of pressure sores in the sacral region. Actuarial statistical methods were used to analyse the predictive value of the risk score. When a patient had a Waterlow PSR score > 25 on admission, the risk of developing a pressure sore was significantly increased compared to patients with a PSR score < 25. After admission, the daily Waterlow PSR scores obtained were significantly associated with the risk of developing a pressure sore. For each additional point this risk increased by 23% (95% confidence interval 17 to 28%). The Waterlow PSR scale provides the medical and nursing staff at an early stage with reliable information about the risk patients have in developing a pressure sore.
Lucini, Filipe R; S Fogliatto, Flavio; C da Silveira, Giovani J; L Neyeloff, Jeruza; Anzanello, Michel J; de S Kuchenbecker, Ricardo; D Schaan, Beatriz
Emergency department (ED) overcrowding is a serious issue for hospitals. Early information on short-term inward bed demand from patients receiving care at the ED may reduce the overcrowding problem, and optimize the use of hospital resources. In this study, we use text mining methods to process data from early ED patient records using the SOAP framework, and predict future hospitalizations and discharges. We try different approaches for pre-processing of text records and to predict hospitalization. Sets-of-words are obtained via binary representation, term frequency, and term frequency-inverse document frequency. Unigrams, bigrams and trigrams are tested for feature formation. Feature selection is based on χ 2 and F-score metrics. In the prediction module, eight text mining methods are tested: Decision Tree, Random Forest, Extremely Randomized Tree, AdaBoost, Logistic Regression, Multinomial Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine (Kernel linear) and Nu-Support Vector Machine (Kernel linear). Prediction performance is evaluated by F1-scores. Precision and Recall values are also informed for all text mining methods tested. Nu-Support Vector Machine was the text mining method with the best overall performance. Its average F1-score in predicting hospitalization was 77.70%, with a standard deviation (SD) of 0.66%. The method could be used to manage daily routines in EDs such as capacity planning and resource allocation. Text mining could provide valuable information and facilitate decision-making by inward bed management teams. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Wen, Zhu-zhi; Zhang, Xin-mei; Mai, Zun; Geng, Deng-feng; Wang, Jing-feng
The study compared the predictive value of admission plasma glucose (APG) and first fasting plasma glucose (FPG) in stratifying patients meriting an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Characteristics of APG, FPG and OGTT 2-hour glucose as well as other blood measurements, physical examinations and medical information were assessed in 994 patients without known diabetes. The prevalences of diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance were 24.6% and 37.9%, according to an OGTT, respectively. The first FPG demonstrated stronger predictive value in diagnosing diabetes than APG did both in overall and in patients with less clinical value. Compared to the first FPG, APG provided less value to coronary artery disease, hypertension and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein for diabetes screening. The first FPG exerted more predictive value than APG did and was still a preferable reference prior to APG in stratifying patients for undiagnosed diabetes by an OGTT. Copyright © 2012 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Karabatsou, Dimitra; Tsironi, Maria; Tsigou, Evdoxia; Boutzouka, Eleni; Katsoulas, Theodoros; Baltopoulos, George
Intensive care unit (ICU) costs account for a great part of a hospital's expenses. The objective of the present study was to measure the patient-specific cost of ICU treatment, to identify the most important cost drivers in ICU and to examine the role of various contributing factors in cost configuration. A retrospective cost analysis of all ICU patients who were admitted during 2011 in a Greek General, seven-bed ICU and stayed for at least 24hours was performed, by applying bottom-up analysis. Data collected included demographics and the exact cost of every single material used for patients' care. Prices were yielded from the hospital's purchasing costs and from the national price list of the imaging and laboratory tests, which was provided by the Ministry of Health. A total of 138 patients were included. Variable cost per ICU day was €573.18. A substantial cost variation was found in the total costs obtained for individual patients (median: €3443, range: €243.70-€116,355). Medicines were responsible for more than half of the cost and antibiotics accounted for the largest part of it, followed by blood products and cardiovascular drugs. Medical cause of admission, severe illness and increased length of stay, mechanical ventilation and dialysis were the factors associated with cost escalation. ICU variable cost is patient-specific, varies according to each patient's needs and is influenced by several factors. The exact estimation of variable cost is a pre-requisite in order to control ICU expenses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Awad, Aya; Bader-El-Den, Mohamed; McNicholas, James; Briggs, Jim
Mortality prediction of hospitalized patients is an important problem. Over the past few decades, several severity scoring systems and machine learning mortality prediction models have been developed for predicting hospital mortality. By contrast, early mortality prediction for intensive care unit patients remains an open challenge. Most research has focused on severity of illness scoring systems or data mining (DM) models designed for risk estimation at least 24 or 48h after ICU admission. This study highlights the main data challenges in early mortality prediction in ICU patients and introduces a new machine learning based framework for Early Mortality Prediction for Intensive Care Unit patients (EMPICU). The proposed method is evaluated on the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II) database. Mortality prediction models are developed for patients at the age of 16 or above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU). We employ the ensemble learning Random Forest (RF), the predictive Decision Trees (DT), the probabilistic Naive Bayes (NB) and the rule-based Projective Adaptive Resonance Theory (PART) models. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. The explanatory variables included demographic, physiological, vital signs and laboratory test variables. Performance measures were calculated using cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to minimize bias. 11,722 patients with single ICU stays are considered. Only patients at the age of 16 years old and above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU) are considered in this study. The proposed EMPICU framework outperformed standard scoring systems (SOFA, SAPS-I, APACHE-II, NEWS and qSOFA) in terms of AUROC and time (i.e. at 6h compared to 48h or more after admission). The results show that although there are many values missing in the first few hour of ICU admission
Sarıkaya, Savaş; Aydın, Gülay; Yücel, Hasan; Kaya, Hakkı; Yıldırımlı, Kutay; Başaran, Ahmet; Zorlu, Ali; Sahin, Safak; Akyol, Lütfü; Bulut, Musa
Our aim was to determine whether there is a relationship between admission gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and subsequent heart failure hospitalizations in patients with acute coronary syndrome. We selected 123 patients with newly diagnosed acute coronary syndrome of ejection fraction (EF) <45%. Patients were followed 15±10 months, and the relationship between admission GGT level and hospitalization because of heart failure during the follow-up was examined. Twenty-three (18.7%) patients were hospitalized during the follow-up of 15±10 months. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that the cut-off point of admission GGT related to predict hospitalization was 49 IU/L, with a sensitivity of 81.7% and specificity of 65.2%. Increased GGT >49 IU/L on admission, presence of hypertension and hyperlipidemia, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), right ventricular dysfunction, moderate-to-severe mitral regurgitation, alanine aminotransferase level, and antiplatelet agent usage were found to have prognostic significance in univariate Cox proportional hazards analysis. In multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model, increased GGT >49 IU/L on admission (hazard ratio [HR] 2.663, p=0.047), presence of hypertension (HR 4.107, p=0.007), and LVEF (HR 0.911, p=0.002) were found to be independent factors to predict new-onset heart failure requiring hospitalization. Hospitalization in heart failure was associated with increased admission GGT levels. Increased admission GGT level in acute coronary syndrome with heart failure should be monitored closely and treated aggressively.
Beesley, Sarah J; Hopkins, Ramona O; Holt-Lunstad, Julianne; Wilson, Emily L; Butler, Jorie; Kuttler, Kathryn G; Orme, James; Brown, Samuel M; Hirshberg, Eliotte L
The ICU is a complex and stressful environment and is associated with significant psychologic morbidity for patients and their families. We sought to determine whether salivary cortisol, a physiologic measure of acute stress, was associated with subsequent psychologic distress among family members of ICU patients. This is a prospective, observational study of family members of adult ICU patients. Adult medical and surgical ICU in a tertiary care center. Family members of ICU patients. Participants provided five salivary cortisol samples over 24 hours at the time of the patient ICU admission. The primary measure of cortisol was the area under the curve from ground; the secondary measure was the cortisol awakening response. Outcomes were obtained during a 3-month follow-up telephone call. The primary outcome was anxiety, measured by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-Anxiety. Secondary outcomes included depression and posttraumatic stress disorder. Among 100 participants, 92 completed follow-up. Twenty-nine participants (32%) reported symptoms of anxiety at 3 months, 15 participants (16%) reported depression symptoms, and 14 participants (15%) reported posttraumatic stress symptoms. In our primary analysis, cortisol level as measured by area under the curve from ground was not significantly associated with anxiety (odds ratio, 0.94; p = 0.70). In our secondary analysis, however, cortisol awakening response was significantly associated with anxiety (odds ratio, 1.08; p = 0.02). Roughly one third of family members experience anxiety after an ICU admission for their loved one, and many family members also experience depression and posttraumatic stress. Cortisol awakening response is associated with anxiety in family members of ICU patients 3 months following the ICU admission. Physiologic measurements of stress among ICU family members may help identify individuals at particular risk of adverse psychologic outcomes.
Wallace, Emma; McDowell, Ronald; Bennett, Kathleen; Fahey, Tom; Smith, Susan M
Emergency admission is associated with the potential for adverse events in older people and risk prediction models are available to identify those at highest risk of admission. The aim of this study was to externally validate and compare the performance of the Probability of repeated admission (Pra) risk model and a modified version (incorporating a multimorbidity measure) in predicting emergency admission in older community-dwelling people. 15 general practices (GPs) in the Republic of Ireland. n=862, ≥70 years, community-dwelling people prospectively followed up for 2 years (2010-2012). Pra risk model (original and modified) calculated for baseline year where ≥0.5 denoted high risk (patient questionnaire, GP medical record review) of future emergency admission. Emergency admission over 1 year (GP medical record review). descriptive statistics, model discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic). Of 862 patients, a total of 154 (18%) had ≥1 emergency admission(s) in the follow-up year. 63 patients (7%) were classified as high risk by the original Pra and of these 26 (41%) were admitted. The modified Pra classified 391 (45%) patients as high risk and 103 (26%) were subsequently admitted. Both models demonstrated only poor discrimination (original Pra: c-statistic 0.65 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.70); modified Pra: c-statistic 0.67 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.72)). When categorised according to risk-category model, specificity was highest for the original Pra at cut-point of ≥0.5 denoting high risk (95%), and for the modified Pra at cut-point of ≥0.7 (95%). Both models overestimated the number of admissions across all risk strata. While the original Pra model demonstrated poor discrimination, model specificity was high and a small number of patients identified as high risk. Future validation studies should examine higher cut-points denoting high risk for the modified Pra, which has practical advantages in terms of application in GP. The
Kingston, Mark Rhys; Evans, Bridie Angela; Nelson, Kayleigh; Hutchings, Hayley; Russell, Ian; Snooks, Helen
Emergency admission risk prediction models are increasingly used to identify patients, typically with one or more chronic conditions, for proactive management in primary care to avoid admissions, save costs and improve patient experience. To identify and review the published evidence on the costs, effects and implementation of emergency admission risk prediction models in primary care for patients with, or at risk of, chronic conditions. We shall search for studies of healthcare interventions using routine data-generated emergency admission risk models. We shall report: the effects on emergency admissions and health costs; clinician and patient views; and implementation findings. We shall search ASSIA, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library, HMIC, ISI Web of Science, MEDLINE and Scopus from 2005, review references in and citations of included articles, search key journals and contact experts. Study selection, data extraction and quality assessment will be performed by two independent reviewers. No ethical permissions are required for this study using published data. Findings will be disseminated widely, including publication in a peer-reviewed journal and through conferences in primary and emergency care and chronic conditions. We judge our results will help a wide audience including primary care practitioners and commissioners, and policymakers. CRD42015016874; Pre-results. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
Gupta, Punkaj; Rettiganti, Mallikarjuna; Gossett, Jeffrey M; Daufeldt, Jennifer; Rice, Tom B; Wetzel, Randall C
To create a novel tool to predict favorable neurologic outcomes during ICU stay among children with critical illness. Logistic regression models using adaptive lasso methodology were used to identify independent factors associated with favorable neurologic outcomes. A mixed effects logistic regression model was used to create the final prediction model including all predictors selected from the lasso model. Model validation was performed using a 10-fold internal cross-validation approach. Virtual Pediatric Systems (VPS, LLC, Los Angeles, CA) database. Patients less than 18 years old admitted to one of the participating ICUs in the Virtual Pediatric Systems database were included (2009-2015). None. A total of 160,570 patients from 90 hospitals qualified for inclusion. Of these, 1,675 patients (1.04%) were associated with a decline in Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category scale by at least 2 between ICU admission and ICU discharge (unfavorable neurologic outcome). The independent factors associated with unfavorable neurologic outcome included higher weight at ICU admission, higher Pediatric Index of Morality-2 score at ICU admission, cardiac arrest, stroke, seizures, head/nonhead trauma, use of conventional mechanical ventilation and high-frequency oscillatory ventilation, prolonged hospital length of ICU stay, and prolonged use of mechanical ventilation. The presence of chromosomal anomaly, cardiac surgery, and utilization of nitric oxide were associated with favorable neurologic outcome. The final online prediction tool can be accessed at https://soipredictiontool.shinyapps.io/GNOScore/. Our model predicted 139,688 patients with favorable neurologic outcomes in an internal validation sample when the observed number of patients with favorable neurologic outcomes was among 139,591 patients. The area under the receiver operating curve for the validation model was 0.90. This proposed prediction tool encompasses 20 risk factors into one probability to predict
Zlotnik, Alexander; Alfaro, Miguel Cuchí; Pérez, María Carmen Pérez; Gallardo-Antolín, Ascensión; Martínez, Juan Manuel Montero
The usage of decision support tools in emergency departments, based on predictive models, capable of estimating the probability of admission for patients in the emergency department may give nursing staff the possibility of allocating resources in advance. We present a methodology for developing and building one such system for a large specialized care hospital using a logistic regression and an artificial neural network model using nine routinely collected variables available right at the end of the triage process.A database of 255.668 triaged nonobstetric emergency department presentations from the Ramon y Cajal University Hospital of Madrid, from January 2011 to December 2012, was used to develop and test the models, with 66% of the data used for derivation and 34% for validation, with an ordered nonrandom partition. On the validation dataset areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.8568 (95% confidence interval, 0.8508-0.8583) for the logistic regression model and 0.8575 (95% confidence interval, 0.8540-0. 8610) for the artificial neural network model. χ Values for Hosmer-Lemeshow fixed "deciles of risk" were 65.32 for the logistic regression model and 17.28 for the artificial neural network model. A nomogram was generated upon the logistic regression model and an automated software decision support system with a Web interface was built based on the artificial neural network model.
Garrouste-Orgeas, Maïté; Flahault, Cécile; Fasse, Léonor; Ruckly, Stéphane; Amdjar-Badidi, Nora; Argaud, Laurent; Badie, Julio; Bazire, Amélie; Bige, Naike; Boulet, Eric; Bouadma, Lila; Bretonnière, Cédric; Floccard, Bernard; Gaffinel, Alain; de Forceville, Xavier; Grand, Hubert; Halidfar, Rebecca; Hamzaoui, Olfa; Jourdain, Mercé; Jost, Paul-Henri; Kipnis, Eric; Large, Audrey; Lautrette, Alexandre; Lesieur, Olivier; Maxime, Virginie; Mercier, Emmanuelle; Mira, Jean Paul; Monseau, Yannick; Parmentier-Decrucq, Erika; Rigaud, Jean-Philippe; Rouget, Antoine; Santoli, François; Simon, Georges; Tamion, Fabienne; Thieulot-Rolin, Nathalie; Thirion, Marina; Valade, Sandrine; Vinatier, Isabelle; Vioulac, Christel; Bailly, Sebastien; Timsit, Jean-François
Post-intensive care syndrome includes the multiple consequences of an intensive care unit (ICU) stay for patients and families. It has become a new challenge for intensivists. Prevention programs have been disappointing, except for ICU diaries, which report the patient's story in the ICU. However, the effectiveness of ICU diaries for patients and families is still controversial, as the interpretation of the results of previous studies was open to criticism hampering an expanded use of the diary. The primary objective of the study is to evaluate the post-traumatic stress syndrome in patients. The secondary objectives are to evaluate the post-traumatic stress syndrome in families, anxiety and depression symptoms in patients and families, and the recollected memories of patients. Endpoints will be evaluated 3 months after ICU discharge or death. A prospective, multicenter, randomized, assessor-blind comparative study of the effect of an ICU diary on patients and families. We will compare two groups: one group with an ICU diary written by staff and family and given to the patient at ICU discharge or to the family in case of death, and a control group without any ICU diary. Each of the 35 participating centers will include 20 patients having at least one family member who will likely visit the patient during their ICU stay. Patients must be ventilated within 48 h after ICU admission and not have any previous chronic neurologic or acute condition responsible for cognitive impairments that would hamper their participation in a phone interview. Three months after ICU discharge or death of the patient, a psychologist will contact the patient and family by phone. Post-traumatic stress syndrome will be evaluated using the Impact of Events Scale-Revised questionnaire, anxiety and depression symptoms using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale questionnaire, both in patients and families, and memory recollection using the ICU Memory Tool Questionnaire in patients. The
González-Vicent, Marta; Marín, Catalina; Madero, Luis; Sevilla, Julián; Díaz, Miguel Angel
The authors retrospectively analyzed postransplantation events in 198 children who underwent hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) between 1998 and 2002 to obtain a risk score for pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission and to ascertain variables predicting a poor outcome. Thirty-six patients (18%) were admitted to the PICU. Median age was 9 years (range 1-18). On univariate analysis, variables significantly associated with PICU admission were male gender (P = 0.01), more than first complete remission (P = 0.003), allogeneic transplantation (P = 0.001), engraftment syndrome (P = 0.03), and acute graft-versus-host disease grade of at least two (P = 0.05). According to this, patients were divided in two levels of risk (low and high), with a respective probability of PICU admission of 8.8 +/- 2.2% and 63.8 +/- 8.8% (P < 0.0001). Seventeen (47%) patients were discharged from the PICU. The probability of event-free survival after PICU admission at 3 years was 24.2 +/- 7%. On univariate analysis, variables with a negative impact on event-free survival were type of transplantation, inotropic support, a C-reactive protein level of at least 10 mg/dL, and a high O-PRISM score. On multivariate analysis, the only variable that influenced event-free survival was the O-PRISM score (< or =10 points, 54.6 +/- 15.3%; >10 points, 8.6 +/- 5.8%; P = 0.007). In conclusion, the risk of PICU admission may be easily estimated using simple variables. A high O-PRISM score at the time of PICU admission predicts a dismal outcome.
Beaune, S; Juvin, P; Beauchet, A; Casalino, E; Megarbane, B
Each year, approximately 165,000 poisonings are managed in the emergency departments (ED) in France. We performed a descriptive analysis of self-poisoned patients admitted to a university hospital ED in the Paris metropolitan area (France) aimed at investigating their outcome and the risk factors for transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU). We retrospectively reviewed patients' records and performed multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors for ICU admission. During 4 years, 882 self-poisoned patients (median age, 38 years [IQR, 26-47]; sex-ratio, 1M/3F) were admitted to the ED, representing 0.7% of all referred patients. Poisonings mainly resulted from multidrug exposures (53%), including benzodiazepines (78%), serotonin reuptake inhibitors (17%), acetaminophen (13%), antipsychotics (9.5%), imidazopyridines (9.5%), antihypertensive drugs (3%), and polycyclic antidepressants (1.3%). Ethanol was involved in 20% of the exposures. Patients were briefly (<24h) monitored in the ED (55%), transferred to the psychiatric department (30%), medical ward (2%) or ICU (6%), and took an irregular discharge (7%). Among the patients transferred to the ICU, 25% were mechanically ventilated and only one died. Risk factors for ICU admission included antihypertensive (Odds ratio (OR), 40.6; 95%-confidence interval (CI), 7.5-221.9) or antipsychotic drug ingestion (OR, 5.3; CI, 2.0-14.4), male gender (OR, 3.3; CI, 1.30-8.8), and consciousness impairment (OR, 2.1; CI, 1.8-2.5 per point lost in Glasgow coma score). Deliberate drug exposure represents a frequent cause of ED admission. Psychotropic drugs are most commonly involved. Transfer to the ICU is rare and predicted by male gender, drug class, and coma depth.
Hoover, Eric; Millman, Sierra
Marilee Jones's career had been a remarkable success. She joined Massachusetts Institute of Technology's (MIT's) admissions office in 1979, landing a job in Cambridge at a time when boys ruled the sandbox of the admissions profession. Her job was to help MIT recruit more women, who then made up less than one-fifth of the institute's students. She…
Bobo, Linda D; Dubberke, Erik R; Kollef, Marin
Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) management has become more daunting over the past decade because of alarming increases in CDI incidence and severity both in the hospital and in the community. This increase has concomitantly caused significant escalation of the health-care economic burden caused by CDI, and it will likely be translated to increased ICU admission and attributable mortality. Some possible causes for difficulty in management of CDI are as follows: (1) inability to predict and prevent development of severe/complicated or relapsing CDI in patients who initially present with mild symptoms; (2) lack of a method to determine who would have benefited a priori from initiating vancomycin treatment first instead of treatment with metronidazole; (3) lack of sensitive and specific CDI diagnostics; (4) changing epidemiology of CDI, including the emergence of a hypervirulent, epidemic C difficile strain associated with increased morbidity and mortality; (5) association of certain high-usage nonantimicrobial medications with CDI; and (6) lack of treatment regimens that leave the normal intestinal flora undisturbed while treating the primary infection. The objective of this article is to present current management and prevention guidelines for CDI based on recommendations by the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America and Infectious Diseases Society of America and potential new clinical management strategies on the horizon.
Carpenter, David L; Gregg, Sara R; Xu, Kejun; Buchman, Timothy G; Coopersmith, Craig M
Many patients with diabetes and their care providers are unaware of the presence of the disease. Dysglycemia encompassing hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, and glucose variability is common in the ICU in patients with and without diabetes. The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of unknown diabetes on glycemic control in the ICU. Prospective observational study. Nine ICUs in an academic, tertiary hospital and a hybrid academic/community hospital. Hemoglobin A1c levels were ordered at all ICU admissions from March 1, 2011 to September 30, 2013. Electronic medical records were examined for a history of antihyperglycemic medications or International Classification of Diseases, 9th Edition diagnosis of diabetes. Patients were categorized as having unknown diabetes (hemoglobin A1c > 6.5%, without history of diabetes), no diabetes (hemoglobin A1c < 6.5%, without history of diabetes), controlled known diabetes (hemoglobin A1c < 6.5%, with documented history of diabetes), and uncontrolled known diabetes (hemoglobin A1c > 6.5%, with documented history of diabetes). None. A total of 15,737 patients had an hemoglobin A1c and medical record evaluable for the history of diabetes, and 5,635 patients had diabetes diagnosed by either medical history or an elevated hemoglobin A1c in the ICU. Of these, 1,460 patients had unknown diabetes, accounting for 26.0% of all patients with diabetes. This represented 41.0% of patients with an hemoglobin A1c > 6.5% and 9.3% of all ICU patients. Compared with patients without diabetes, patients with unknown diabetes had a higher likelihood of requiring an insulin infusion (44.3% vs 29.3%; p < 0.0001), a higher average blood glucose (172 vs 126 mg/dL; p < 0.0001), an increased percentage of hyperglycemia (19.7% vs 7.0%; blood glucose > 180 mg/dL; p < 0.0001) and hypoglycemia (8.9% vs 2.5%; blood glucose < 70 mg/dL; p < 0.0001), higher glycemic variability (55.6 vs 28.8, average of patient SD of glucose; p < 0.0001), and increased
Alhadlaq, Adel M; Alshammari, Osama F; Alsager, Saleh M; Neel, Khalid A Fouda; Mohamed, Ashry G
The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of admissions criteria at King Saud University (KSU), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to predict students' early academic performance at three health science colleges (medicine, dentistry, and pharmacy). A retrospective cohort study was conducted with data from the records of students enrolled in the three colleges from the 2008-09 to 2010-11 academic years. The admissions criteria-high school grade average (HSGA), aptitude test (APT) score, and achievement test (ACT) score-were the independent variables. The dependent variable was the average of students' first- and second-year grade point average (GPA). The results showed that the ACT was a better predictor of the students' early academic performance than the HSGA (β=0.368, β=0.254, respectively). No significant relationship was found between the APT and students' early academic performance (β=-0.019, p>0.01). The ACT was most predictive for pharmacy students (β=0.405), followed by dental students (β =0.392) and medical students (β=0.195). Overall, the current admissions criteria explained only 25.5% of the variance in the students' early academic performance. While the ACT and HSGA were found to be predictive of students' early academic performance in health colleges at KSU, the APT was not a strong predictor. Since the combined current admissions criteria for the health science colleges at KSU were weak predictors of the variance in early academic performance, it may be necessary to consider noncognitive evaluation methods during the admission process.
Hossler, Don; Kalsbeek, David
The array of admissions models and the underlying, and sometimes conflicting goals people have for college admissions, create the dynamics and the tensions that define the contemporary context for enrollment management. The senior enrollment officer must ask, for example, how does an institution try to assure transparency, equality of access,…
This study's aim was to determine the prognostic factors and to develop a triage system for intensive care unit (ICU) admission of patients with gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB). This prospective, observational study included 411 adults consecutively hospitalized for GIB. Each patient's selected clinical findings and laboratory values at presentation were obtained. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores were calculated from the initial findings in the emergency department. Poor outcome was defined as recurrent GIB, emergency surgery, or death. The role of hepatic cirrhosis, APACHE II score, active GIB, end-organ dysfunction, and hypotension in predicting outcome was evaluated. Chi-square, Student's t, Mann-Whitney U, and logistic regression analysis tests were used for statistical comparisons. Poor outcome developed in 81 (20%) patients; 39 died, 23 underwent emergency surgery, and 47 rebled. End-organ dysfunction, active bleeding, hepatic cirrhosis, and high APACHE II scores were independent predictors of poor outcome with odds ratios of 3:1, 3:1, 2:3, and 1:1, respectively. The ICU admission rate was 37%. High APACHE II score, active bleeding, end-organ dysfunction, and hepatic cirrhosis are independent predictors of poor outcome in patients with GIB and can be used in the triage of these patients for ICU admission.
Pieris, Lalitha; Sigera, Ponsuge Chathurani; De Silva, Ambepitiyawaduge Pubudu; Munasinghe, Sithum; Rashan, Aasiyah; Athapattu, Priyantha Lakmini; Jayasinghe, Kosala Saroj Amarasiri; Samarasinghe, Kerstein; Beane, Abi; Dondorp, Arjen M; Haniffa, Rashan
Stressful patient experiences during the intensive care unit (ICU) stay is associated with reduced satisfaction in High Income Countries (HICs) but has not been explored in Lower and Middle Income Countries (LMICs). This study describes the recalled experiences, stress and satisfaction as perceived by survivors of ICUs in a LMIC. This follow-up study was carried out in 32 state ICUs in Sri Lanka between July and December 2015.ICU survivors' experiences, stress factors encountered and level of satisfaction were collected 30 days after ICU discharge by a telephone questionnaire adapted from Granja and Wright. Of 1665 eligible ICU survivors, 23.3% died after ICU discharge, 49.1% were uncontactable and 438 (26.3%) patients were included in the study. Whilst 78.1% (n = 349) of patients remembered their admission to the hospital, only 42.3% (n = 189) could recall their admission to the ICU. The most frequently reported stressful experiences were: being bedridden (34.2%), pain (34.0%), general discomfort (31.7%), daily needle punctures (32.9%), family worries (33.6%), fear of dying and uncertainty in the future (25.8%). The majority of patients (376, 84.12%) found the atmosphere of the ICU to be friendly and calm. Overall, the patients found the level of health care received in the ICU to be "very satisfactory" (93.8%, n = 411) with none of the survivors stating they were either "dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied". In common with HIC, survivors were very satisfied with their ICU care. In contrast to HIC settings, specific ICU experiences were frequently not recalled, but those remembered were reported as relatively stress-free. Stressful experiences, in common with HIC, were most frequently related to uncertainty about the future, dependency, family, and economic concerns.
Dickie, H; Vedio, A; Dundas, R; Treacher, D F; Leach, R M
To determine whether the therapeutic intervention scoring system (TISS) reliably reflects the cost of the overall intensive care unit (ICU) population, subgroups of that population and individual ICU patients. Prospective analysis of individual patient costs and comparison with TISS. Adult, 12 bedded general medical and surgical ICU in a university teaching hospital. Two hundred fifty-seven consecutive patients including 52 coronary care (CCU), 99 cardiac surgery (CS) and 106 general ICU (GIC) cases admitted to the ICU during a 12-week period in 1994. A total of 916 TISS-scored patient days were analysed A variable cost (VC) that included consumables and service usage (nursing, physiotherapy, radiology and pathology staff costs) for individual patients was measured daily. Nursing costs were calculated in proportion to a daily nursing dependency score. A fixed cost (FC) was calculated for each patient to include medical, technical and clerical salary costs, capital equipment depreciation, equipment and central hospital costs. The correlation between cost and TISS was analysed using regression analysis. For the whole group (n = 257) the average daily FC was pound sterling 255 and daily VC was pound sterling 541 (SEM 10); range pound sterling 23-pound sterling 2,806. In the patient subgroups average daily cost (FC + VC) for CCU was pound sterling 476 (SEM 17.5), for CS pound sterling 766 (SEM 13.8) and for GIC pound sterling 873 (SEM 13.6). In the group as a whole, a strong correlation was demonstrated between VC and the TISS for each patient day (r = 0.87, p < 0.001) and this improved further when the total TISS score was compared with the total VC of the entire patient episode (r = 0.93, p < 0.001). This correlation was maintained in CCU, CS and GIC patient cohorts with only a small median difference between actual and predicted cost (2.2 % for GIC patients). However, in the individual patient, the range of error was up to +/- 65 % of the true variable cost. For the
Holanda Peña, M S; Talledo, N Marina; Ots Ruiz, E; Lanza Gómez, J M; Ruiz Ruiz, A; García Miguelez, A; Gómez Marcos, V; Domínguez Artiga, M J; Hernández Hernández, M Á; Wallmann, R; Llorca Díaz, J
To study the agreement between the level of satisfaction of patients and their families referred to the care and attention received during admission to the ICU. A prospective, 5-month observational and descriptive study was carried out. ICU of Marqués de Valdecilla University Hospital, Santander (Spain). Adult patients with an ICU stay longer than 24h, who were discharged to the ward during the period of the study, and their relatives. Instrument: FS-ICU 34 for assessing family satisfaction, and an adaptation of the FS-ICU 34 for patients. The Cohen kappa index was calculated to assess agreement between answers. An analysis was made of the questionnaires from one same family unit, obtaining 148 pairs of surveys (296 questionnaires). The kappa index ranged between 0.278-0.558, which is indicative of mild to moderate agreement. The families of patients admitted to the ICU cannot be regarded as good proxies, at least for competent patients. In such cases, we must refer to these patients in order to obtain first hand information on their feelings, perceptions and experiences during admission to the ICU. Only when patients are unable to actively participate in the care process should their relatives be consulted. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.
Chen, Zhao-Ran; Huang, Bi; Lu, Hai-Song; Zhao, Zhen-Hua; Hui, Ru-Tai; Yang, Yan-Min; Fan, Xiao-Han
Inflammation has been shown to be related with acute aortic dissection (AAD). The present study aimed to evaluate the association of white blood cell counts (WBCc) on admission with both in-hospital and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with uncomplicated Stanford type B AAD. From 2008 to 2010, a total of 377 consecutive patients with uncomplicated type B AAD were enrolled and then followed up. Clinical data and WBCc on admission were collected. The primary end points were in-hospital death and long-term all-cause death. The in-hospital death rate was 4.2%, and the long-term all-cause mortality rate was 6.9% during a median follow-up of 18.9 months. WBCc on admission was identified as a risk factor for in-hospital death by univariate Cox regression analysis as both a continuous variable and a categorical variable using a cut off of 11.0 × 10 9 cell/L (all P < 0.05). After adjusting for age, sex and other risk factors, elevated admission WBCc was still a significant predictor for in-hospital death as both a continuous variable [hazard ratio (HR): 1.052, 95% CI: 1.024-1.336, P = 0.002] and a categorical variable using a cut off of 11.0 × 10 9 cell/L (HR: 2.056, 95% CI: 1.673-5.253, P = 0.034). No relationship was observed between WBCc on admission and long-term all-cause death. Our results indicate that elevated WBCc upon admission might be used as a predictor for increased risk of in-hospital death in uncomplicated type B AAD. There might be no predictive value of WBCc for the long-term survival of type B AAD.
Rodríguez, Alejandro H; Avilés-Jurado, Francesc X; Díaz, Emili; Schuetz, Philipp; Trefler, Sandra I; Solé-Violán, Jordi; Cordero, Lourdes; Vidaur, Loreto; Estella, Ángel; Pozo Laderas, Juan C; Socias, Lorenzo; Vergara, Juan C; Zaragoza, Rafael; Bonastre, Juan; Guerrero, José E; Suberviola, Borja; Cilloniz, Catia; Restrepo, Marcos I; Martín-Loeches, Ignacio
To define which variables upon ICU admission could be related to the presence of coinfection using CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) analysis. A secondary analysis from a prospective, multicentre, observational study (2009-2014) in ICU patients with confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infection. We assessed the potential of biomarkers and clinical variables upon admission to the ICU for coinfection diagnosis using CHAID analysis. Performance of cut-off points obtained was determined on the basis of the binominal distributions of the true (+) and true (-) results. Of the 972 patients included, 196 (20.3%) had coinfection. Procalcitonin (PCT; ng/mL 2.4 vs. 0.5, p < 0.001), but not C-reactive protein (CRP; mg/dL 25 vs. 38.5; p = 0.62) was higher in patients with coinfection. In CHAID analyses, PCT was the most important variable for coinfection. PCT <0.29 ng/mL showed high sensitivity (Se = 88.2%), low Sp (33.2%) and high negative predictive value (NPV = 91.9%). The absence of shock improved classification capacity. Thus, for PCT <0.29 ng/mL, the Se was 84%, the Sp 43% and an NPV of 94% with a post-test probability of coinfection of only 6%. PCT has a high negative predictive value (94%) and lower PCT levels seems to be a good tool for excluding coinfection, particularly for patients without shock. Copyright © 2015 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The tele-ICU is designed to leverage, not replace, the need for bedside clinical expertise in the diagnosis, treatment, and assessment of various critical illnesses. Tele-ICUs are primarily decentralized or centralized models with differing advantages and disadvantages. The centralized model has sufficiently powered published data to be associated with improved mortality and ICU length of stay in a cost-effective manner. Factors associated with improved clinical outcomes include improved compliance with best practices; providing off-hours implementation of the bedside physician's care plan; and identification of and rapid response to physiological instability (initial clinical review within 1 hour) and rapid response to alerts, alarms, or direct notification by bedside clinicians. With improved communication and frequent review of patients between the tele-ICU and the bedside clinicians, the bedside clinician can provide the care that only they can provide. Although technology continues to evolve at a rapid pace, technology alone will most likely not improve clinical outcomes. Technology will enable us to process real or near real-time data into complex and powerful predictive algorithms. However, the remote and bedside teams must work collaboratively to develop care processes to better monitor, prioritize, standardize, and expedite care to drive greater efficiencies and improve patient safety.
de Almeida, Cesar Cimonari; Boone, M Dustin; Laviv, Yosef; Kasper, Burkhard S; Chen, Clark C; Kasper, Ekkehard M
Patients who have undergone intracranial neurosurgical procedures have traditionally been admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) for close postoperative neurological observation. The purpose of this study was to systematically review the evidence for routine ICU admission in patients undergoing intracranial neurosurgical procedures and to evaluate the safety of alternative postoperative pathways. We were interested in identifying studies that examined selected patients who presented for elective, non-emergent intracranial surgery whose postoperative outcomes were compared as a function of ICU versus non-ICU admission. A systematic review was performed in July 2016 using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses checklist of the Medline database. The search strategy was created based on the following key words: "craniotomy," "neurosurgical procedure," and "intensive care unit." The nine articles that satisfied the inclusion criteria yielded a total of 2227 patients. Of these patients, 879 were observed in a non-ICU setting. The most frequent diagnoses were supratentorial brain tumors, followed by patients with cerebrovascular diseases and infratentorial brain tumors. Three percent (30/879) of the patients originally assigned to floor or intermediate care status were transferred to the ICU. The most frequently observed neurological complications leading to ICU transfer were delayed postoperative neurological recovery, seizures, worsening of neurological deficits, hemiparesis, and cranial nerves deficits. Our systematic review demonstrates that routine postoperative ICU admission may not benefit carefully selected patients who have undergone elective intracranial neurosurgical procedures. In addition, limiting routine ICU admission may result in significant cost savings.
Aslakson, Rebecca A.; Curtis, J. Randall; Nelson, Judith E.
Objectives Palliative care is an interprofessional specialty as well as an approach to care by all clinicians caring for patients with serious and complex illness. Unlike hospice, palliative care is based not on prognosis but on need and is an essential component of comprehensive care for critically ill patients from the time of ICU admission. In this clinically focused article, we review evidence of opportunities to improve palliative care for critically ill adults, summarize strategies for ICU palliative care improvement, and identify resources to support implementation. Data Sources We searched the MEDLINE database from inception through January 2014. We also searched the Reference Library of The Improving Palliative Care in the ICU Project website sponsored by the National Institutes of Health and the Center to Advance Palliative Care, which is updated monthly. We hand-searched reference lists and author files. Study Selection Selected studies included all English-language articles concerning adult patients using the search terms "intensive care" or "critical care" with "palliative care," "supportive care," "end-of-life care," or "ethics." Data Extraction After examination of peer-reviewed original scientific articles, consensus statements, guidelines, and reviews resulting from our literature search, we made final selections based on author consensus. Data Synthesis Existing evidence is organized to address: 1) opportunities to alleviate physical and emotional symptoms, improve communication, and provide support for patients and families; 2) models and specific interventions for improving ICU palliative care; 3) available resources for ICU palliative care improvement; and 4) ongoing challenges and targets for future research. Key domains of ICU palliative care have been defined and operationalized as measures of quality. There is increasing recognition that effective integration of palliative care during acute and chronic critical illness may help patients and
Hung, Shih-Chiang; Kung, Chia-Te; Hung, Chih-Wei; Liu, Ber-Ming; Liu, Jien-Wei; Chew, Ghee; Chuang, Hung-Yi; Lee, Wen-Huei; Lee, Tzu-Chi
The adverse effects of delayed admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) have been recognized in previous studies. However, the definitions of delayed admission varies across studies. This study proposed a model to define "delayed admission", and explored the effect of ICU-waiting time on patients' outcome. This retrospective cohort study included non-traumatic adult patients on mechanical ventilation in the emergency department (ED), from July 2009 to June 2010. The primary outcomes measures were 21-ventilator-day mortality and prolonged hospital stays (over 30 days). Models of Cox regression and logistic regression were used for multivariate analysis. The non-delayed ICU-waiting was defined as a period in which the time effect on mortality was not statistically significant in a Cox regression model. To identify a suitable cut-off point between "delayed" and "non-delayed", subsets from the overall data were made based on ICU-waiting time and the hazard ratio of ICU-waiting hour in each subset was iteratively calculated. The cut-off time was then used to evaluate the impact of delayed ICU admission on mortality and prolonged length of hospital stay. The final analysis included 1,242 patients. The time effect on mortality emerged after 4 hours, thus we deduced ICU-waiting time in ED > 4 hours as delayed. By logistic regression analysis, delayed ICU admission affected the outcomes of 21 ventilator-days mortality and prolonged hospital stay, with odds ratio of 1.41 (95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 1.89) and 1.56 (95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 2.27) respectively. For patients on mechanical ventilation at the ED, delayed ICU admission is associated with higher probability of mortality and additional resource expenditure. A benchmark waiting time of no more than 4 hours for ICU admission is recommended.
Pilkey, Jana; Demers, Chantale; Chochinov, Harvey; Venkatesan, Nithya
The purpose of this study was to determine whether the presence of gynecologic malignancies predicts the likelihood of a tertiary palliative care unit hospital admission. In this study, patients admitted to a specialized tertiary palliative care unit (TPCU) with gynecologic malignancies were compared to national and provincial death rates to determine if gynecologic malignancy predicts admission, and subsequent death, in a TPCU. Eighty-two gynecologic cancer patients were admitted to our TPCU over the 5- year study period. Out of all cancer deaths in the TPCU, death from ovarian cancer was 3.7% compared with 2.4% (p = 0.0068) of all cancer deaths in Manitoba and 2.3% (p = 0.0043) of all cancer deaths in Canada. Cervical cancer accounted for 1.7% of all our patients deaths compared with 0.7% (p = 0.0001) provincially and 0.6% (p = 0.0001) nationally. Uterine cancer deaths were not significantly different from the provincial and national death rates, whereas vulvar and fallopian cancers were too rare to allow for statistical analysis. Gynecologic cancers may be predictive of admission to a palliative care unit.
Reignier, Jean; Dumont, Romain; Katsahian, Sandrine; Martin-Lefevre, Laurent; Renard, Benoit; Fiancette, Maud; Lebert, Christine; Clementi, Eva; Bontemps, Frederic
To assess decisions to forego life-sustaining treatment (LST) in patients too sick for intensive care unit (ICU) admission, comparatively to patients admitted to the ICU. Prospective observational cohort study. A medical-surgical ICU. Consecutive patients referred to the ICU during a one-yr period. None. Of 898 triaged patients, 147 were deemed too well to benefit from ICU admission. Decisions to forego LST were made in 148 of 666 (22.2%) admitted patients and in all 85 patients deemed too sick for ICU admission. Independent predictors of decisions to forego LST at ICU refusal rather than after ICU admission were: age; underlying disease; living in an institution; preexisting cognitive impairment; admission for medical reasons; and acute cardiac failure, acute central neurologic illness, or sepsis. Hospital mortality after decisions to forego LST was not significantly different in refused and admitted patients (77.5% vs. 86.5%; p = .1). Decisions to forego LST were made via telephone in 58.8% of refused patients and none of the admitted patients. Nurses caring for the patient had no direct contact with the ICU physicians for 62.3% of the decisions in refused patients, whereas meetings between nurses and physicians occurred in 70.3% of decisions to forego LST in the ICU. Patients or relatives were involved in 28.2% of decisions to forego LST at ICU refusal compared with 78.4% of decisions to forego LST in ICU patients (p < .001). All patients deemed too sick for ICU admission had decisions to forego LST. These decisions were made without direct patient examination in two-thirds of refused patients (vs. none of admitted patients) and were associated with less involvement of nurses and relatives compared with decisions in admitted patients. Further work is needed to improve decisions to forego LST made under the distinctive circumstances of triage.
Schmidt, Matthieu; Demoule, Alexandre; Deslandes-Boutmy, Emmanuelle; Chaize, Marine; de Miranda, Sandra; Bèle, Nicolas; Roche, Nicolas; Azoulay, Elie; Similowski, Thomas
ICU admission is required in more than 25% of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) at some time during the course of the disease. However, only limited information is available on how physicians communicate with COPD patients about ICU admission. COPD patients and relatives from 19 French ICUs were interviewed at ICU discharge about their knowledge of COPD. French pulmonologists self-reported their practices for informing and discussing intensive care treatment preferences with COPD patients. Finally, pulmonologists and ICU physicians reported barriers and facilitators for transfer of COPD patients to the ICU and to propose invasive mechanical ventilation. Self-report questionnaires were filled in by 126 COPD patients and 102 relatives, and 173 pulmonologists and 135 ICU physicians were interviewed. For 41% (n = 39) of patients and 54% (n = 51) of relatives, ICU admission had never been expected prior to admission. One half of patients were not routinely informed by their pulmonologist about possible ICU admission at some time during the course of COPD. Moreover, treatment options (that is, non-invasive ventilation, intubation and mechanical ventilation or tracheotomy) were not explained to COPD patients during regular pulmonologist visits. Pulmonologists and ICU physician have different perceptions of the decision-making process pertaining to ICU admission and intubation. The information provided by pulmonologists to patients and families concerning the prognosis of COPD, the risks of ICU admission and specific care could be improved in order to deliver ICU care in accordance with the patient's personal values and preferences. Given the discrepancies in the decision-making process between pulmonologists and intensivists, a more collaborative approach should probably be discussed.
Introduction ICU admission is required in more than 25% of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) at some time during the course of the disease. However, only limited information is available on how physicians communicate with COPD patients about ICU admission. Methods COPD patients and relatives from 19 French ICUs were interviewed at ICU discharge about their knowledge of COPD. French pulmonologists self-reported their practices for informing and discussing intensive care treatment preferences with COPD patients. Finally, pulmonologists and ICU physicians reported barriers and facilitators for transfer of COPD patients to the ICU and to propose invasive mechanical ventilation. Results Self-report questionnaires were filled in by 126 COPD patients and 102 relatives, and 173 pulmonologists and 135 ICU physicians were interviewed. For 41% (n = 39) of patients and 54% (n = 51) of relatives, ICU admission had never been expected prior to admission. One half of patients were not routinely informed by their pulmonologist about possible ICU admission at some time during the course of COPD. Moreover, treatment options (that is, non-invasive ventilation, intubation and mechanical ventilation or tracheotomy) were not explained to COPD patients during regular pulmonologist visits. Pulmonologists and ICU physician have different perceptions of the decision-making process pertaining to ICU admission and intubation. Conclusions The information provided by pulmonologists to patients and families concerning the prognosis of COPD, the risks of ICU admission and specific care could be improved in order to deliver ICU care in accordance with the patient’s personal values and preferences. Given the discrepancies in the decision-making process between pulmonologists and intensivists, a more collaborative approach should probably be discussed. PMID:24898342
Dailey, Robert T; Malinowski, Thomas; Baugher, Mitchel; Rowley, Daniel D
The purpose of this retrospective medical record review was to report on recidivism to the ICU among adult postoperative cardiac and thoracic patients managed with a respiratory therapy assess-and-treat (RTAT) protocol. Our primary null hypothesis was that there would be no difference in all-cause unexpected readmissions and escalations between the RTAT group and the physician-ordered respiratory care group. Our secondary null hypothesis was that there would be no difference in primary respiratory-related readmissions, ICU length of stay, or hospital length of stay. We reviewed 1,400 medical records of cardiac and thoracic postoperative subjects between January 2015 and October 2016. The RTAT is driven by a standardized patient assessment tool, which is completed by a registered respiratory therapist. The tool develops a respiratory severity score for each patient and directs interventions for bronchial hygiene, aerosol therapy, and lung inflation therapy based on an algorithm. The protocol period commenced on December 1, 2015, and continued through October 2016. Data relative to unplanned admissions to the ICU for all causes as well as respiratory-related causes were evaluated. There was a statistically significant difference in the all-cause unplanned ICU admission rate between the RTAT (5.8% [95% CI 4.3-7.9]) and the physician-ordered respiratory care (8.8% [95% CI 6.9-11.1]) groups ( P = .034). There was no statistically significant difference in respiratory-related unplanned ICU admissions with RTAT (36% [95% CI 22.7-51.6]) compared with the physician-ordered respiratory care (53% [95% CI 41.1-64.8]) group ( P = .09). The RTAT protocol group spent 1 d less in the ICU ( P < .001) and in the hospital ( P < .001). RTAT protocol implementation demonstrated a statistically significant reduction in all-cause ICU readmissions. The reduction in respiratory-related ICU readmissions did not reach statistical significance. Copyright © 2017 by Daedalus Enterprises.
Billings, John; Blunt, Ian; Steventon, Adam; Georghiou, Theo; Lewis, Geraint; Bardsley, Martin
Objectives To develop an algorithm for identifying inpatients at high risk of re-admission to a National Health Service (NHS) hospital in England within 30 days of discharge using information that can either be obtained from hospital information systems or from the patient and their notes. Design Multivariate statistical analysis of routinely collected hospital episode statistics (HES) data using logistic regression to build the predictive model. The model's performance was calculated using bootstrapping. Setting HES data covering all NHS hospital admissions in England. Participants The NHS patients were admitted to hospital between April 2008 and March 2009 (10% sample of all admissions, n=576 868). Main outcome measures Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the algorithm, together with its positive predictive value and sensitivity for a range of risk score thresholds. Results The algorithm produces a ‘risk score’ ranging (0–1) for each admitted patient, and the percentage of patients with a re-admission within 30 days and the mean re-admission costs of all patients are provided for 20 risk bands. At a risk score threshold of 0.5, the positive predictive value (ie, percentage of inpatients identified as high risk who were subsequently re-admitted within 30 days) was 59.2% (95% CI 58.0% to 60.5%); representing 5.4% (95% CI 5.2% to 5.6%) of all inpatients who would be re-admitted within 30 days (sensitivity). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.70 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.70). Conclusions We have developed a method of identifying inpatients at high risk of unplanned re-admission to NHS hospitals within 30 days of discharge. Though the models had a low sensitivity, we show how to identify subgroups of patients that contain a high proportion of patients who will be re-admitted within 30 days. Additional work is necessary to validate the model in practice. PMID:22885591
Kahn, Jeremy M; Le, Tri Q.; Barnato, Amber E.; Hravnak, Marilyn; Kuza, Courtney C.; Pike, Francis; Angus, Derek C.
Background Intensive care unit (ICU) telemedicine is an increasingly common strategy for improving the outcome of critical care, but its overall impact is uncertain. Objectives To determine the effectiveness of ICU telemedicine in a national sample of hospitals and quantify variation in effectiveness across hospitals. Research design We performed a multi-center retrospective case-control study using 2001–2010 Medicare claims data linked to a national survey identifying United States hospitals adopting ICU telemedicine. We matched each adopting hospital (cases) to up to 3 non-adopting hospitals (controls) based on size, case-mix and geographic proximity during the year of adoption. Using ICU admissions from 2 years before and after the adoption date, we compared outcomes between case and control hospitals using a difference-in-differences approach. Results 132 adopting case hospitals were matched to 389 similar non-adopting control hospitals. The pre- and post-adoption unadjusted 90-day mortality was similar in both case hospitals (24.0% vs. 24.3%, p=0.07) and control hospitals (23.5% vs. 23.7%, p<0.01). In the difference-in-differences analysis, ICU telemedicine adoption was associated with a small relative reduction in 90-day mortality (ratio of odds ratios: 0.96, 95% CI = 0.95–0.98, p<0.001). However, there was wide variation in the ICU telemedicine effect across individual hospitals (median ratio of odds ratios: 1.01; interquartile range 0.85–1.12; range 0.45–2.54). Only 16 case hospitals (12.2%) experienced statistically significant mortality reductions post-adoption. Hospitals with a significant mortality reduction were more likely to have large annual admission volumes (p<0.001) and be located in urban areas (p=0.04) compared to other hospitals. Conclusions Although ICU telemedicine adoption resulted in a small relative overall mortality reduction, there was heterogeneity in effect across adopting hospitals, with large-volume urban hospitals
Steenman, Sebastiaan C.; Bakker, Wieger E.; van Tartwijk, Jan W. F.
The first-year grade point average (FYGPA) is the predominant measure of student success in most studies on university admission. Previous cognitive achievements measured with high school grades or standardized tests have been found to be the strongest predictors of FYGPA. For this reason, standardized tests measuring cognitive achievement are…
Płaszewska-Żywko, Lucyna; Gazda, Dorota
The aim of the study was to determine emotional reactions and needs of families of ICU patients. The study group included 60 relatives of ICU patients, aged 18-80 years. The diagnostic questionnaire-based survey was conducted. The questionnaire contained questions regarding demographic data, emotions and needs as well as the Courtauld Emotional Control Scale (CECS). The major emotions of patients' families on ICU admission were anxiety, uncertainty, fear, depression, and nervousness (particularly among parents and adult offsprings). On second-third day of hospitalisation, the emotions became less severe (P < 0.001). The anxiety-related emotional reactions were better controlled by men (P < 0.01); most women experienced stronger negative emotions (P < 0.05) and their needs to receive information and to be involved in patient care were expressed more. Negative emotions of ICU patients' relatives were highly intense, especially amongst parents and adult children. Women were characterised by higher levels of emotions and needs compared to men.
Swenne, Ingemar; Ros, Helena Salonen
This study examined predictors of emergency hospitalisation of adolescent girls with restrictive eating disorders and weight loss treated by a family-based intervention programme. We studied 339 girls aged 10-17 years treated in a specialist unit at Uppsala University Children's Hospital, Sweden, from August 2010 to December 2015. Historical weight data were obtained from school health services, and other weight data were determined at presentation. Weight controlling behaviour was recorded, and patients were evaluated using the Eating Disorder Examination Questionnaire. A family-based intervention started after assessment and the early weight gain after one week, one month and three months was assessed. There were 17 emergency admissions of 15 patients for refusing food, progressive weight loss and medical instability. Logistic regression analysis showed that emergency admissions were predicted by a low body mass index standard deviation score at presentation (odds ratio 2.57), a high rate of weight loss before presentation (odds ratio 4.38) and a low rate of weight gain at the start of treatment (odds ratio 4.59). Poor weight gain at the start of a family-based intervention for adolescent girls with restrictive eating disorders predicted emergency hospital admission. ©2017 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Polmear, C M; Nathan, H; Bates, S; French, C; Odisho, J; Skinner, E; Karahalios, A; McGain, F
We sought to estimate the proportion of patients admitted to a metropolitan intensive care unit (ICU) who were current smokers, and the relationships between ICU survivors who smoked and smoking cessation and/or reduction six months post-ICU discharge. We conducted a prospective cohort study at a metropolitan level III ICU in Melbourne, Victoria. One hundred consecutive patients who met the inclusion criteria were included in the study. Inclusion criteria consisted of patients who were smokers at time of ICU admission, had an ICU length of stay greater than one day, survived to ICU discharge, and provided written informed consent. A purpose-designed questionnaire which included the Fagerstrom test for nicotine dependence and evaluation of patients' attitude towards smoking cessation was completed by participants following ICU discharge and prior to hospital discharge. Participants were re-interviewed over the phone at six months post-ICU discharge. Of the 1,062 patients admitted to ICU, 253 (23%) were current smokers and 100 were enrolled. Six months post-ICU discharge, 28 (33%) of the 86 participants who were alive and contactable had quit smoking and 35 (41%) had reduced smoking. The median number of reported cigarettes smoked per day reduced by 40%. Participants who initially believed their ICU admission was smoking-related were more likely to have quit six months post-ICU discharge (odds ratio 2.98; 95% confidence interval 1.07 to 8.26; P=0.036). Six months post-ICU discharge, 63/86 (74%) of participants had quit or reduced their smoking. Further research into targeted smoking cessation counselling for ICU survivors is indicated.
Lotfi, Ghassan; Faraz, Saima; Nasir, Razan; Somini, Sreenisha; Abdeldayem, Rasha M; Koratkar, Raghunandini; Alsawalhi, Nadia; Ammar, Abeer
The purpose of this study is to first compare the performance of the PAMG-1 biomarker test to that of standard clinical assessment (SCA) for the risk assessment of spontaneous preterm delivery (sPTD) among women with symptoms of preterm labor (PTL) and then calculate the potential impact on unnecessary admission reduction. Patients of gestational age 24 0/7 -36 6/7 with PTL symptoms, cervical dilatation ≤3 cm, no intercourse within 24 h, and clinically intact membranes were recruited consecutively into this prospective observational study. Specificity (SP), sensitivity (SN), positive-predictive value (PPV), and negative-predictive value (NPV) for the PAMG-1 test and SCA, for which a positive result was defined as patient admission, for predicting spontaneous delivery ≤7 and ≤14 d of presentation were calculated. One hundred and forty-eight patients were included in the analysis, 132 of which had both SCA and PAMG-1 results available. For the prediction of sPTD ≤7 d for SCA and PAMG-1, the PPV and NPV were 10% and 100%, and 71% and 98%, respectively. For prediction of sPTD ≤14 d for SCA and PAMG-1, the PPV and NPV were 14% and 100%, and 86% and 96%, respectively. Sixty-one per cent (81/132) of patients were admitted for treatment and/or observation. Our study reinforces the critical role of the PAMG-1 biomarker test to aid in risk assessment of imminent spontaneous preterm delivery in patients with symptoms of PTL. The PAMG-1 test was found to be statistically superior to standard clinical assessment alone, with respect to specificity. Based on our data, the introduction of a PAMG-1 test result into clinical decision making could reduce up to 91% of unnecessary admissions for women presenting with threatened preterm labor.
Hioki, Hirofumi; Watanabe, Yusuke; Kozuma, Ken; Yamamoto, Masanori; Naganuma, Toru; Araki, Motoharu; Tada, Norio; Shirai, Shinichi; Yamanaka, Futoshi; Higashimori, Akihiro; Mizutani, Kazuki; Tabata, Minoru; Takagi, Kensuke; Ueno, Hiroshi; Hayashida, Kentaro
The relation between C-reactive protein (CRP) level on admission and mortality after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains unclear. To evaluate the impact of serum CRP level on mortality after TAVI, we assessed 1,016 patients with CRP who underwent TAVI and 538 patients with high-sensitive CRP (hs-CRP) level who underwent TAVI on admission in the OCEAN (Optimized Transcatheter Valvular Intervention)-TAVI registry. Study population was stratified into 2 groups (high/low), according to the median of CRP and hs-CRP on admission. We assessed the impact of high CRP and hs-CRP level on all-cause death after TAVI. During 2-year follow-up, all-cause death after TAVI was 9.4% in patients with CRP and 11.9% in patients with hs-CRP. Median value of serum CRP was 0.10 mg/dl in both CRP and hs-CRP. Patients with high CRP (>0.10 mg/dl) had significantly higher incidence of all-cause death compared with those with low CRP (11.5% vs 7.6%, log-rank p = 0.015). Multivariate Cox regression analysis with a time-varying covariate demonstrated that high CRP was an independent predictor of all-cause death within the first 3 months (hazard ratio 2.78, 95% CI 1.30 to 5.95) compared with from 3 months to 2 years (hazard ratio 0.80, 95% CI 0.47 to 1.36) (P for interaction = 0.008). Inversely, these results were not observed in the stratification using hs-CRP on admission. In conclusion, high CRP on admission was significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause death after TAVI, particularly within the first 3 months after TAVI. Risk stratification using CRP may be a simple and useful strategy to identify high-risk patients who undergo TAVI. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Marafino, Ben J; Boscardin, W John; Dudley, R Adams
Sparsity is often a desirable property of statistical models, and various feature selection methods exist so as to yield sparser and interpretable models. However, their application to biomedical text classification, particularly to mortality risk stratification among intensive care unit (ICU) patients, has not been thoroughly studied. To develop and characterize sparse classifiers based on the free text of nursing notes in order to predict ICU mortality risk and to discover text features most strongly associated with mortality. We selected nursing notes from the first 24h of ICU admission for 25,826 adult ICU patients from the MIMIC-II database. We then developed a pair of stochastic gradient descent-based classifiers with elastic-net regularization. We also studied the performance-sparsity tradeoffs of both classifiers as their regularization parameters were varied. The best-performing classifier achieved a 10-fold cross-validated AUC of 0.897 under the log loss function and full L2 regularization, while full L1 regularization used just 0.00025% of candidate input features and resulted in an AUC of 0.889. Using the log loss (range of AUCs 0.889-0.897) yielded better performance compared to the hinge loss (0.850-0.876), but the latter yielded even sparser models. Most features selected by both classifiers appear clinically relevant and correspond to predictors already present in existing ICU mortality models. The sparser classifiers were also able to discover a number of informative - albeit nonclinical - features. The elastic-net-regularized classifiers perform reasonably well and are capable of reducing the number of features required by over a thousandfold, with only a modest impact on performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Wassenaar, Annelies; Schoonhoven, Lisette; Devlin, John W; van Haren, Frank M P; Slooter, Arjen J C; Jorens, Philippe G; van der Jagt, Mathieu; Simons, Koen S; Egerod, Ingrid; Burry, Lisa D; Beishuizen, Albertus; Matos, Joaquim; Donders, A Rogier T; Pickkers, Peter; van den Boogaard, Mark
Accurate prediction of delirium in the intensive care unit (ICU) may facilitate efficient use of early preventive strategies and stratification of ICU patients by delirium risk in clinical research, but the optimal delirium prediction model to use is unclear. We compared the predictive performance and user convenience of the prediction model for delirium (PRE-DELIRIC) and early prediction model for delirium (E-PRE-DELIRIC) in ICU patients and determined the value of a two-stage calculation. This 7-country, 11-hospital, prospective cohort study evaluated consecutive adults admitted to the ICU who could be reliably assessed for delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method-ICU or the Intensive Care Delirium Screening Checklist. The predictive performance of the models was measured using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Calibration was assessed graphically. A physician questionnaire evaluated user convenience. For the two-stage calculation we used E-PRE-DELIRIC immediately after ICU admission and updated the prediction using PRE-DELIRIC after 24 h. In total 2178 patients were included. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was significantly greater for PRE-DELIRIC (0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.71-0.76)) compared to E-PRE-DELIRIC (0.68 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.71)) (z score of - 2.73 (p < 0.01)). Both models were well-calibrated. The sensitivity improved when using the two-stage calculation in low-risk patients. Compared to PRE-DELIRIC, ICU physicians (n = 68) rated the E-PRE-DELIRIC model more feasible. While both ICU delirium prediction models have moderate-to-good performance, the PRE-DELIRIC model predicts delirium better. However, ICU physicians rated the user convenience of E-PRE-DELIRIC superior to PRE-DELIRIC. In low-risk patients the delirium prediction further improves after an update with the PRE-DELIRIC model after 24 h. ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02518646 . Registered on 21 July 2015.
Cheng, Lee; DeJesus, Alma Y; Rodriguez, Maria A
Accurately estimating the life expectancy of critically ill patients with metastatic or advanced cancer is a crucial step in planning appropriate palliative or supportive care. We evaluated the results of laboratory tests performed within two days of hospital admission to predict the likelihood of death within 14 days. We retrospectively selected patients 18 years or older with metastatic or advanced cancer who were admitted to intensive care units or palliative and supportive care services in our hospital. We evaluated whether the following are independent predictors in a logistic regression model: age, sex, comorbidities, and the results of seven commonly available laboratory tests. The end point was death within 14 days in or out of the hospital. Of 901 patients in the development cohort and 45% died within 14 days. The risk of death within 14 days after admission increased with increasing age, lactate dehydrogenase levels, and white blood cell counts and decreasing albumin levels and platelet counts (P < 0.01). The model predictions were confirmed using a separate validation cohort. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.74 and 0.70 for the development and validation cohorts, respectively, indicating good discriminatory ability for the model. Our results suggest that laboratory test results performed within two days of admission are valuable in predicting death within 14 days for patients with metastatic or advanced cancer. Such results may provide an objective assessment tool for physicians and help them initiate conversations with patients and families about end-of-life care. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Pimentel, Marcio Fernandes; Soares, Marcelo José Ferreira; Murad, Jamil Alli; Oliveira, Marcos Aurelio Barboza de; Faria, Fernanda Luiza; Faveri, Vinicius Zani; Iano, Yuzo; Guido, Rodrigo Capobianco
To test the capacity of the Logistic CASUS Score on the second postoperative day, the total serum bilirubin dosage on the second postoperative day and the extracorporeal circulation time, as possible predictive factors of long-term stay in Intensive Care Unit after cardiac surgery. Eight-two patients submitted to cardiac surgery with extracorporeal circulation were selected. The Logistic CASUS Score on the second postoperative day was calculated and bilirubin dosage on the second postoperative day was measured. The extracorporeal circulation time was also registered. Patients were divided into two groups: Group A, those who were discharged up to the second day of postoperative care; Group B, those who were discharged after the second day of postoperative care. In this study, 40 cases were listed in Group A and 42 cases in Group B. The mean extracorporeal circulation time was 83.9±29.4 min in Group A and 95.8±29.31 min in Group B. Extracorporeal circulation time was not significant in this study (P=0.0735). The level of P significance of bilirubin dosage on the second postoperative day was 0.0003 and an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 with a cut-off point at 0.51 mg/dl was registered. The level of P significance of Logistic CASUS Score on the second postoperative day was 0.0001 and an area under the ROC curve of 0.723 with a cut-off point at 0.40% was registered. The Logistic CASUS Score on the second postoperative day has shown to be better than the bilirubin dosage on the second postoperative day as a predictive tool for calculating the length of stay in intensive care unit during the postoperative care period of patients. Notwithstanding, extracorporeal circulation time has failed to prove itself as an efficient tool to predict an extended length of stay in intensive care unit.
Harrison, David A; Brady, Anthony R; Parry, Gareth J; Carpenter, James R; Rowan, Kathy
To assess the performance of published risk prediction models in common use in adult critical care in the United Kingdom and to recalibrate these models in a large representative database of critical care admissions. Prospective cohort study. A total of 163 adult general critical care units in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, during the period of December 1995 to August 2003. A total of 231,930 admissions, of which 141,106 met inclusion criteria and had sufficient data recorded for all risk prediction models. None. The published versions of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, APACHE II UK, APACHE III, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, and Mortality Probability Models (MPM) II were evaluated for discrimination and calibration by means of a combination of appropriate statistical measures recommended by an expert steering committee. All models showed good discrimination (the c index varied from 0.803 to 0.832) but imperfect calibration. Recalibration of the models, which was performed by both the Cox method and re-estimating coefficients, led to improved discrimination and calibration, although all models still showed significant departures from perfect calibration. Risk prediction models developed in another country require validation and recalibration before being used to provide risk-adjusted outcomes within a new country setting. Periodic reassessment is beneficial to ensure calibration is maintained.
Pimentel, Marcio Fernandes; Soares, Marcelo José Ferreira; Murad Junior, Jamil Alli; de Oliveira, Marcos Aurelio Barboza; Faria, Fernanda Luiza; Faveri, Vinicius Zani; Iano, Yuzo; Guido, Rodrigo Capobianco
Objective To test the capacity of the Logistic CASUS Score on the second postoperative day, the total serum bilirubin dosage on the second postoperative day and the extracorporeal circulation time, as possible predictive factors of long-term stay in Intensive Care Unit after cardiac surgery. Methods Eight-two patients submitted to cardiac surgery with extracorporeal circulation were selected. The Logistic CASUS Score on the second postoperative day was calculated and bilirubin dosage on the second postoperative day was measured. The extracorporeal circulation time was also registered. Patients were divided into two groups: Group A, those who were discharged up to the second day of postoperative care; Group B, those who were discharged after the second day of postoperative care. Results In this study, 40 cases were listed in Group A and 42 cases in Group B. The mean extracorporeal circulation time was 83.9±29.4 min in Group A and 95.8±29.31 min in Group B. Extracorporeal circulation time was not significant in this study (P=0.0735). The level of P significance of bilirubin dosage on the second postoperative day was 0.0003 and an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 with a cut-off point at 0.51 mg/dl was registered. The level of P significance of Logistic CASUS Score on the second postoperative day was 0.0001 and an area under the ROC curve of 0.723 with a cut-off point at 0.40% was registered. Conclusion The Logistic CASUS Score on the second postoperative day has shown to be better than the bilirubin dosage on the second postoperative day as a predictive tool for calculating the length of stay in intensive care unit during the postoperative care period of patients. Notwithstanding, extracorporeal circulation time has failed to prove itself as an efficient tool to predict an extended length of stay in intensive care unit. PMID:29211215
Siegel, Mark D
A large proportion of deaths, particularly in the developed world, follows admission to an ICU. Therefore, end-of life decision making is an essential facet of critical care practice. For intensivists, managing death in the critically ill has become a key professional skill. They must be thoroughly familiar with the ethical framework that guides end-of-life decision making. Decisions should generally be made collaboratively by clinicians partnering with patients' families. Treatment choices should be crafted to meet specific, achievable goals. A rational, empathic approach to working with families should encourage appropriate, mutually satisfactory outcomes.
deBoisblanc, B P; Castro, M; Everret, B; Grender, J; Walker, C D; Summer, W R
We hypothesized that continuous, automatic turning utilizing a patient-friendly, low air loss surface would reduce the incidence of early ICU pneumonia in selected groups of critically ill medical patients. Prospective, randomized, controlled clinical trial. Medical ICU of a large community teaching hospital. One hundred twenty-four critically ill new admissions to the medical ICU at Charity Hospital in New Orleans. Patients were prospectively randomized within one of five diagnosis-related groups (DRG)--sepsis (SEPSIS), obstructive airways disease (OAD), metabolic coma, drug overdose, and stroke--to either routine turning on a standard ICU bed or to continuous turning on an oscillating air-flotation bed for a total of five days. Patients were monitored daily during the treatment period for the development of pneumonia. The incidence of pneumonia during the first five ICU days was 22 percent in patients randomized to the standard ICU bed vs 9 percent for the oscillating bed (p = 0.05). This treatment effect was greatest in the SEPSIS DRG (23 percent vs 3 percent, p = 0.04). Continuous automatic oscillation did not significantly change the number of days of required mechanical ventilation, ICU stay, hospital stay, or hospital mortality overall or within any of the DRGs. We conclude that air-supported automated turning during the first five ICU days reduces the incidence of early ICU pneumonia in selected DRGs; however, this form of automated turning does not reduce other measured clinical outcome parameters.
Kothe, Christian; Hissbach, Johanna; Hampe, Wolfgang
Although some recent studies concluded that dexterity is not a reliable predictor of performance in preclinical laboratory courses in dentistry, they could not disprove earlier findings which confirmed the worth of manual dexterity tests in dental admission. We developed a wire bending test (HAM-Man) which was administered during dental freshmen's first week in 2008, 2009, and 2010. The purpose of our study was to evaluate if the HAM-Man is a useful selection criterion additional to the high school grade point average (GPA) in dental admission. Regression analysis revealed that GPA only accounted for a maximum of 9% of students' performance in preclinical laboratory courses, in six out of eight models the explained variance was below 2%. The HAM-Man incrementally explained up to 20.5% of preclinical practical performance over GPA. In line with findings from earlier studies the HAM-Man test of manual dexterity showed satisfactory incremental validity. While GPA has a focus on cognitive abilities, the HAM-Man reflects learning of unfamiliar psychomotor skills, spatial relationships, and dental techniques needed in preclinical laboratory courses. The wire bending test HAM-Man is a valuable additional selection instrument for applicants of dental schools.
Kokura, Yoji; Maeda, Keisuke; Wakabayashi, Hidetaka; Nishioka, Shinta; Higashi, Sotaro
The aim of the present study was to establish whether high nutritional-related risk on admission predicts less improvement of Functional Independence Measure (FIM) in geriatric stroke patients. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted for stroke at 5 major hospitals in the Noto district of Japan from July 2009 to June 2013. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) at admission. Patient characteristics were compared between the low GNRI (<92) and high GNRI (≥92) groups. We assessed nutritional status using GNRI and activities of daily living using the FIM. A total of 540 participants (mean age, 80 years; interquartile range, 75-85 years) were included in the present study. Patients were admitted because of cerebral infarction (394 patients), intracerebral hemorrhage (123 patients), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (23 patients). Univariate analysis of FIM gain demonstrated significant differences between groups. Multivariate analysis of FIM gain adjusting for confounding factors demonstrated age (β = -.139; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -.629 to -.140), cerebral infarction (β = -.264; 95% CI = -12.956 to -6.729), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (β = -.180; 95% CI = -.688 to -.248), and GNRI score (β = .089; 95% CI = .010-.347) as independent factors associated with FIM gain (P < .05 for all). GNRI at admission may independently predict FIM gain. Poor nutritional status is a predictor of lower FIM improvement in geriatric stroke patients. Copyright © 2016 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Moran, J L; Peisach, A R; Solomon, P J; Martin, J
The ability of various proxy cost measures, including therapeutic activity scores (TISS and Omega) and cumulative daily severity of illness scores, to predict individual ICU patient costs was assessed in a prospective "ground-up" utilization costing study over a six month period in 1991. Daily activity (TISS and Omega scores) and utilization in consecutive admissions to three adult university associated ICUs was recorded by dedicated data collectors. Cost prediction used linear regression with determination (80%) and validation (20%) data sets. The cohort, 1333 patients, had a mean (SD) age 57.5 (19.4) years, (41% female) and admission APACHE III score of 58 (27). ICU length of stay and mortality were 3.9 (6.1) days and 17.6% respectively. Mean total TISS and Omega scores were 117 (157) and 72 (113) respectively. Mean patient costs per ICU episode (1991 dollar AUS) were dollar 6801 (dollar 10311), with median costs of dollar 2534, range dollar 106 to dollar 95,602. Dominant cost fractions were nursing 43.3% and overheads 16.9%. Inflation adjusted year 2002 (mean) costs were dollar 9343 (dollar AUS). Total costs in survivors were predicted by Omega score, summed APACHE III score and ICU length of stay; determination R2, 0.91; validation 0.88. Omega was the preferred activity score. Without the Omega score, predictors were age, summed APACHE III score and ICU length of stay; determination R2, 0.73; validation 0.73. In non-survivors, predictors were age and ICU length of stay (plus interaction), and Omega score (determination R2, 0.97; validation 0.91). Patient costs may be predicted by a combination of ICU activity indices and severity scores.
Plantinga, N L; de Smet, A M G A; Oostdijk, E A N; de Jonge, E; Camus, C; Krueger, W A; Bergmans, D; Reitsma, J B; Bonten, M J M
Selective digestive decontamination (SDD) and selective oropharyngeal decontamination (SOD) improved intensive care unit (ICU), hospital and 28-day survival in ICUs with low levels of antibiotic resistance. Yet it is unclear whether the effect differs between medical and surgical ICU patients. In an individual patient data meta-analysis, we systematically searched PubMed and included all randomized controlled studies published since 2000. We performed a two-stage meta-analysis with separate logistic regression models per study and per outcome (hospital survival and ICU survival) and subsequent pooling of main and interaction effects. Six studies, all performed in countries with low levels of antibiotic resistance, yielded 16 528 hospital admissions and 17 884 ICU admissions for complete case analysis. Compared to standard care or placebo, the pooled adjusted odds ratios for hospital mortality was 0.82 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72-0.93) for SDD and 0.84 (95% CI 0.73-0.97) for SOD. Compared to SOD, the adjusted odds ratio for hospital mortality was 0.90 (95% CI 0.82-0.97) for SDD. The effects on hospital mortality were not modified by type of ICU admission (p values for interaction terms were 0.66 for SDD and control, 0.87 for SOD and control and 0.47 for SDD and SOD). Similar results were found for ICU mortality. In ICUs with low levels of antibiotic resistance, the effectiveness of SDD and SOD was not modified by type of ICU admission. SDD and SOD improved hospital and ICU survival compared to standard care in both patient populations, with SDD being more effective than SOD. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Rispoli, Fabio; Iannuzzi, Michele; De Robertis, Edoardo; Piazza, Ornella; Servillo, Giuseppe; Tufano, Rosalba
At 5:30 pm on December 17, 2010, shortly after a power failure, smoke filled the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of Federico II University Hospital in Naples, Italy, triggering the hospital emergency alarm system. Immediately, staff began emergency procedures and alerted rescue teams. All patients were transferred without harm. The smoke caused pharyngeal and conjunctival irritation in some staff members. After a brief investigation, firefighters discovered the cause of the fire was a failure of the Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS).
Hesser, A; Cregler, L L; Lewis, L
To identify cognitive and noncognitive variables as predictors of the admission into medical school of African American college students who have participated in summer academic enrichment programs (SAEPs). The study sample comprised 309 African American college students who participated in SAEPs at the Medical College of Georgia School of Medicine from 1980 to 1989 and whose educational and occupational statuses were determined by follow-up tracking. A three-step logistic regression was used to analyze the data (with alpha = .05); the criterion variable was admission to medical school. The 17 predictor variables studied were one of two types, cognitive and noncognitive. The cognitive variables were (1) Scholastic Aptitude Test mathematics (SAT-M) score, (2) SAT verbal score, (3) college grade-point average (GPA), (4) college science GPA, (5) SAEP GPA, and (6) SAEP basic science GPA (BSGPA). The noncognitive variables were (1) gender, (2) highest college level at the time of the last SAEP application, (3) type of college attended (historically African American or predominately white), (4) number of SAEPs attended, (5) career aspiration (physician or another health science option) (6) parents who were professionals, (7) parents who were health care role models, (8) evidence of leadership, (9) evidence of community service, (10) evidence of special motivation, and (11) strength of letter of recommendation in the SAEP application. For each student the rating scores for the last four noncognitive variables were determined by averaging the ratings of two judges who reviewed relevant information in each student's file. In step 1, which explained 20% of the admission decision variance, SAT-M score, SAEP BSGPA, and college GPA were the three significant cognitive predictors identified. In step 2, which explained 31% of the variance, the three cognitive predictors identified in step 1 were joined by three noncognitive predictors: career aspiration, type of college, and
Keiser, Heidi N; Sackett, Paul R; Kuncel, Nathan R; Brothen, Thomas
Women typically obtain higher subsequent college GPAs than men with the same admissions test score. A common reaction is to attribute this to a flaw in the admissions test. We explore the possibility that this underprediction of women's performance reflects gender differences in conscientiousness and college course-taking patterns. In Study 1, we focus on using the ACT to predict performance in a single, large course where performance is decomposed into cognitive (exam and quiz scores) and less cognitive, discretionary components (discussion and extra credit points). The ACT does not underpredict female's cognitive performance, but it does underpredict female performance on the less cognitive, discretionary components of academic performance, because it fails to measure and account for the personality trait of conscientiousness. In Study 2, we create 2 course-difficulty indices (Course Challenge and Mean Aptitude in Course) and add them to an HLM regression model to see if they reduce the degree to which SAT scores underpredict female performance. Including Course Challenge does result in a modest reduction of the gender coefficient; however, including Mean Aptitude in Course does not. Thus, differences in course-taking patterns is a partial (albeit small) explanation for the common finding of differential prediction by gender. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).
Parry, Selina M; Denehy, Linda; Beach, Lisa J; Berney, Sue; Williamson, Hannah C; Granger, Catherine L
With growing awareness of the importance of rehabilitation, new measures are being developed specifically for use in the intensive care unit (ICU). There are currently 26 measures reported to assess function in ICU survivors. The Physical Function in Intensive care Test scored (PFIT-s) has established clinimetric properties. It is unknown how other functional measures perform in comparison to the PFIT-s or which functional measure may be the most clinically applicable for use within the ICU. The aims of this study were to determine (1) the criterion validity of the Functional Status Score for the ICU (FSS-ICU), ICU Mobility Scale (IMS) and Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) against the PFIT-s; (2) the construct validity of these tests against muscle strength; (3) predictive utility of these tests to predict discharge to home; and (4) the clinical applicability. This was a nested study within an ongoing controlled study and an observational study. Sixty-six individuals were assessed at awakening and ICU discharge. Measures included: PFIT-s, FSS-ICU, IMS and SPPB. Bivariate relationships (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient) and predictive validity (logistic regression) were determined. Responsiveness (effect sizes); floor and ceiling effects; and minimal important differences were calculated. Mean ± SD PFIT-s at awakening was 4.7 ± 2.3 out of 10. On awakening a large positive relationship existed between PFIT-s and the other functional measures: FSS-ICU (rho = 0.87, p < 0.005), IMS (rho = 0.81, p < 0.005) and SPPB (rho = 0.70, p < 0.005). The PFIT-s had excellent construct validity (rho = 0.8, p < 0.005) and FSS-ICU (rho = 0.69, p < 0.005) and IMS (rho = 0.57, p < 0.005) had moderate construct validity with muscle strength. The PFIT-s and FSS-ICU had small floor/ceiling effects <11% at awakening and ICU discharge. The SPPB had a large floor effect at awakening (78%) and ICU discharge (56%). All
Wang, Anson; Ortega-Gutierrez, Santiago; Petersen, Nils H
The purpose of this review is to briefly describe the concept of cerebral autoregulation, to detail several bedside techniques for measuring and assessing autoregulation, and to outline the impact of impaired autoregulation on clinical and functional outcomes in acute brain injury. Furthermore, we will review several autoregulation studies in select forms of acute brain injuries, discuss the potential for its use in patient management in the ICU, and suggest further avenues for research. Cerebral autoregulation plays a critical role in regulating cerebral blood flow, and impaired autoregulation has been associated with worse functional and clinical outcomes in various acute brain injuries. There exists a multitude of methods to assess the autoregulatory state in patients using both invasive and non-invasive modalities. Continuous monitoring of patients in the ICU has yielded autoregulatory-derived optimal perfusion pressures that may prevent secondary injury and improve outcomes. Measuring autoregulation continuously at the bedside is now a feasible option for clinicians working in the ICU, although there exists a great need to standardize autoregulatory measurement. While the clinical benefits await prospective and randomized trials, autoregulation-derived parameters show enormous potential for creating an optimal physiological environment for the injured brain.
Vilkė, Alina; Bilskienė, Diana; Šaferis, Viktoras; Gedminas, Martynas; Bieliauskaitė, Dalia; Tamašauskas, Arimantas; Macas, Andrius
Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is the leading cause of death and disability in young adults. Study aimed to define the predictive value of early near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) monitoring of TBI patients in a Lithuanian clinical setting. Data of 61 patients was analyzed. Predictive value of early NIRS monitoring, computed tomography data and regular intensive care unit (ICU) parameters was investigated. Twenty-six patients expressed clinically severe TBI; 14 patients deceased. Patients who survived expressed higher NIRS values at the periods of admission to operative room (75.4%±9.8% vs. 71.0%±20.5%; P=0.013) and 1h after admission to ICU (74.7%±1.5% vs. 61.9%±19.4%; P=0.029). The NIRS values discriminated hospital mortality groups more accurately than admission GCS score, blood sugar or hemoglobin levels. Admission INR value and NIRS value at 1h after admission to ICU were selected by discriminant analysis into the optimal set of features when classifying hospital mortality groups. Average efficiency of classification using this method was 88.9%. When rsO2 values at 1h after admission to ICU did not exceed 68.0% in the left hemisphere and 68.3% in the right hemisphere, the hazard ratio for death increased by 17.7 times (P<0.01) and 5.1 times (P<0.05), respectively. NIRS plays an important role in the clinical care of TBI patients. Regional brain saturation monitoring provides accurate predictive data, which can improve the allocation of scarce medical resources, set the treatment goals and alleviate the early communication with patients' relatives. Copyright © 2014 Lithuanian University of Health Sciences. Production and hosting by Elsevier Urban & Partner Sp. z o.o. All rights reserved.
Curtis, J Randall; Ciechanowski, Paul S; Downey, Lois; Gold, Julia; Nielsen, Elizabeth L; Shannon, Sarah E; Treece, Patsy D; Young, Jessica P; Engelberg, Ruth A
The intensive care unit (ICU), where death is common and even survivors of an ICU stay face the risk of long-term morbidity and re-admissions to the ICU, represents an important setting for improving communication about palliative and end-of-life care. Communication about the goals of care in this setting should be a high priority since studies suggest that the current quality of ICU communication is often poor and is associated with psychological distress among family members of critically ill patients. This paper describes the development and evaluation of an intervention designed to improve the quality of care in the ICU by improving communication among the ICU team and with family members of critically ill patients. We developed a multi-faceted, interprofessional intervention based on self-efficacy theory. The intervention involves a "communication facilitator" - a nurse or social worker - trained to facilitate communication among the interprofessional ICU team and with the critically ill patient's family. The facilitators are trained using three specific content areas: a) evidence-based approaches to improving clinician-family communication in the ICU, b) attachment theory allowing clinicians to adapt communication to meet individual family member's communication needs, and c) mediation to facilitate identification and resolution of conflict including clinician-family, clinician-clinician, and intra-family conflict. The outcomes assessed in this randomized trial focus on psychological distress among family members including anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder at 3 and 6 months after the ICU stay. This manuscript also reports some of the lessons that we have learned early in this study. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Rathod, Ashakiran T; Malini, K V
To analyze obstetric admissions to intensive care unit and to identify the risk factors responsible for intensive care admission. This is a retrospective study of all obstetric cases admitted to the intensive care unit over a period of 3 years. Data were collected from case records. The risk factors responsible for ICU admission were analyzed. There were 765 obstetric admissions to ICU accounting for 1.24 % of all deliveries. 56.20 % were in the age group of 20-25 years. 38.43 % were in their first pregnancy. 36.48 % of cases were at 37-40 weeks of gestation. Postpartum admissions were 80.91 %. Major conditions responsible were obstetric hemorrhage in 44.05 %, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in 28.88 %, severe anemia in 14.37 %, heart disease in 12.15 %, and sepsis in 7.97 % of ICU cases. 40.39 % cases required high dependency care. Maternal mortality was seen in 15.55 % of ICU cases. Commonest cause of mortality was hemorrhagic shock (26.89 %) and multiorgan dysfunction syndrome (26.05 %). Commonest risk factors for ICU admissions are obstetric hemorrhage and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. Other major risk factors are severe anemia, heart disease, sepsis, more than one diagnosis on admission, and the need for cesarean delivery.
Moss, Travis J; Lake, Douglas E; Calland, J Forrest; Enfield, Kyle B; Delos, John B; Fairchild, Karen D; Moorman, J Randall
Patients in ICUs are susceptible to subacute potentially catastrophic illnesses such as respiratory failure, sepsis, and hemorrhage that present as severe derangements of vital signs. More subtle physiologic signatures may be present before clinical deterioration, when treatment might be more effective. We performed multivariate statistical analyses of bedside physiologic monitoring data to identify such early subclinical signatures of incipient life-threatening illness. We report a study of model development and validation of a retrospective observational cohort using resampling (Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis type 1b internal validation) and a study of model validation using separate data (type 2b internal/external validation). University of Virginia Health System (Charlottesville), a tertiary-care, academic medical center. Critically ill patients consecutively admitted between January 2009 and June 2015 to either the neonatal, surgical/trauma/burn, or medical ICUs with available physiologic monitoring data. None. We analyzed 146 patient-years of vital sign and electrocardiography waveform time series from the bedside monitors of 9,232 ICU admissions. Calculations from 30-minute windows of the physiologic monitoring data were made every 15 minutes. Clinicians identified 1,206 episodes of respiratory failure leading to urgent unplanned intubation, sepsis, or hemorrhage leading to multi-unit transfusions from systematic individual chart reviews. Multivariate models to predict events up to 24 hours prior had internally validated C-statistics of 0.61-0.88. In adults, physiologic signatures of respiratory failure and hemorrhage were distinct from each other but externally consistent across ICUs. Sepsis, on the other hand, demonstrated less distinct and inconsistent signatures. Physiologic signatures of all neonatal illnesses were similar. Subacute potentially catastrophic illnesses in three diverse ICU
Kelly, Maureen E; Regan, Daniel; Dunne, Fidelma; Henn, Patrick; Newell, John; O'Flynn, Siun
Internationally, tests of general mental ability are used in the selection of medical students. Examples include the Medical College Admission Test, Undergraduate Medicine and Health Sciences Admission Test and the UK Clinical Aptitude Test. The most widely used measure of their efficacy is predictive validity.A new tool, the Health Professions Admission Test- Ireland (HPAT-Ireland), was introduced in 2009. Traditionally, selection to Irish undergraduate medical schools relied on academic achievement. Since 2009, Irish and EU applicants are selected on a combination of their secondary school academic record (measured predominately by the Leaving Certificate Examination) and HPAT-Ireland score. This is the first study to report on the predictive validity of the HPAT-Ireland for early undergraduate assessments of communication and clinical skills. Students enrolled at two Irish medical schools in 2009 were followed up for two years. Data collected were gender, HPAT-Ireland total and subsection scores; Leaving Certificate Examination plus HPAT-Ireland combined score, Year 1 Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) scores (Total score, communication and clinical subtest scores), Year 1 Multiple Choice Questions and Year 2 OSCE and subset scores. We report descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficients and Multiple linear regression models. Data were available for 312 students. In Year 1 none of the selection criteria were significantly related to student OSCE performance. The Leaving Certificate Examination and Leaving Certificate plus HPAT-Ireland combined scores correlated with MCQ marks.In Year 2 a series of significant correlations emerged between the HPAT-Ireland and subsections thereof with OSCE Communication Z-scores; OSCE Clinical Z-scores; and Total OSCE Z-scores. However on multiple regression only the relationship between Total OSCE Score and the Total HPAT-Ireland score remained significant; albeit the predictive power was modest. We found
Background Internationally, tests of general mental ability are used in the selection of medical students. Examples include the Medical College Admission Test, Undergraduate Medicine and Health Sciences Admission Test and the UK Clinical Aptitude Test. The most widely used measure of their efficacy is predictive validity. A new tool, the Health Professions Admission Test- Ireland (HPAT-Ireland), was introduced in 2009. Traditionally, selection to Irish undergraduate medical schools relied on academic achievement. Since 2009, Irish and EU applicants are selected on a combination of their secondary school academic record (measured predominately by the Leaving Certificate Examination) and HPAT-Ireland score. This is the first study to report on the predictive validity of the HPAT-Ireland for early undergraduate assessments of communication and clinical skills. Method Students enrolled at two Irish medical schools in 2009 were followed up for two years. Data collected were gender, HPAT-Ireland total and subsection scores; Leaving Certificate Examination plus HPAT-Ireland combined score, Year 1 Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) scores (Total score, communication and clinical subtest scores), Year 1 Multiple Choice Questions and Year 2 OSCE and subset scores. We report descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficients and Multiple linear regression models. Results Data were available for 312 students. In Year 1 none of the selection criteria were significantly related to student OSCE performance. The Leaving Certificate Examination and Leaving Certificate plus HPAT-Ireland combined scores correlated with MCQ marks. In Year 2 a series of significant correlations emerged between the HPAT-Ireland and subsections thereof with OSCE Communication Z-scores; OSCE Clinical Z-scores; and Total OSCE Z-scores. However on multiple regression only the relationship between Total OSCE Score and the Total HPAT-Ireland score remained significant; albeit the
Cureton-Lane, R A; Fontaine, D K
Although sleep is important for physical and psychological health, no research has assessed the sleep of children in a pediatric ICU and the factors that affect sleep. To observe the sleep of children in a pediatric ICU and to determine the relationship of noise, light, contact with caregivers, parental presence, and severity of illness to the sleep obtained by children in a pediatric ICU during a 10-hour night. At 5-minute intervals from 8 PM until 6 AM, a convenience sample of nine patients was observed. Sleep state, noise and light levels, contact with caregivers, and parental presence were recorded. Severity of illness was measured on admission and within 26 hours of data collection. Subjects slept for a mean total of 4.7 hours (SD = 0.49) during the 10-hour night, interrupted by a mean of 9.8 awakenings (SD = 2.48). The mean length of a sleep episode was only 27.6 minutes (SD = 25.85). Mean noise level was 55.1 dB(A) (SD = 6.82), with sudden, sharp elevations of up to 90 dB(A). Probit analysis indicated that noise, light, and contact with caregivers were significant predictors of sleep. Parental presence and severity of illness were not. Patients in the pediatric ICU sleep significantly less than is normal for children of the same ages, and their patterns of sleep are seriously disturbed. Because noise, light, and contact with caregivers are significant predictors of sleep state, health professionals can use these findings to structure the environment and the care they give to promote the sleep of critically ill children.
Krause, Robert; Halwachs, Bettina; Thallinger, Gerhard G.; Klymiuk, Ingeborg; Gorkiewicz, Gregor; Hoenigl, Martin; Prattes, Jürgen; Valentin, Thomas; Heidrich, Katharina; Buzina, Walter; Salzer, Helmut J. F.; Rabensteiner, Jasmin; Prüller, Florian; Raggam, Reinhard B.; Meinitzer, Andreas; Moissl-Eichinger, Christine; Högenauer, Christoph; Quehenberger, Franz; Kashofer, Karl; Zollner-Schwetz, Ines
Whether the presence of Candida spp. in lower respiratory tract (LRT) secretions is a marker of underlying disease, intensive care unit (ICU) treatment and antibiotic therapy or contributes to poor clinical outcome is unclear. We investigated healthy controls, patients with proposed risk factors for Candida growth in LRT (antibiotic therapy, ICU treatment with and without antibiotic therapy), ICU patients with pneumonia and antibiotic therapy and candidemic patients (for comparison of truly invasive and colonizing Candida spp.). Fungal patterns were determined by conventional culture based microbiology combined with molecular approaches (next generation sequencing, multilocus sequence typing) for description of fungal and concommitant bacterial microbiota in LRT, and host and fungal biomarkes were investigated. Admission to and treatment on ICUs shifted LRT fungal microbiota to Candida spp. dominated fungal profiles but antibiotic therapy did not. Compared to controls, Candida was part of fungal microbiota in LRT of ICU patients without pneumonia with and without antibiotic therapy (63% and 50% of total fungal genera) and of ICU patients with pneumonia with antibiotic therapy (73%) (p<0.05). No case of invasive candidiasis originating from Candida in the LRT was detected. There was no common bacterial microbiota profile associated or dissociated with Candida spp. in LRT. Colonizing and invasive Candida strains (from candidemic patients) did not match to certain clades withdrawing the presence of a particular pathogenic and invasive clade. The presence of Candida spp. in the LRT rather reflected rapidly occurring LRT dysbiosis driven by ICU related factors than was associated with invasive candidiasis. PMID:27206014
Mahmoudian-Dehkordi, Amin; Sadat, Somayeh
Many jurisdictions are facing increased demand for intensive care. There are two long-term investment options: intensive care unit (ICU) versus step-down or intermediate care unit (IMCU) capacity expansion. Relative cost-effectiveness of the two investment strategies with regard to patient lives saved has not been studied to date. We expand a generic system dynamics simulation model of emergency patient flow in a typical hospital, populated with empirical evidence found in the medical and hospital administration literature, to estimate the long-term effects of expanding ICU versus IMCU beds on patient lives saved under a common assumption of 2.1% annual increase in hospital arrivals. Two alternative policies of expanding ICU by two beds versus introducing a two-bed IMCU are compared over a ten-year simulation period. Russel equation is used to calculate total cost of patients' hospitalization. Using two possible values for the ratio of ICU to IMCU cost per inpatient day and four possible values for the percentage of patients transferred from ICU to IMCU found in the literature, nine scenarios are compared against the baseline scenario of no capacity expansion. Expanding ICU capacity by two beds is demonstrated as the most cost-effective scenario with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 3684 (US $) per life saved against the baseline scenario. Sensitivity analyses on the mortality rate of patients in IMCU, direct transfer of IMCU-destined patients to the ward upon completing required IMCU length of stay in the ICU, admission of IMCU patient to ICU, adding two ward beds, and changes in hospital size do not change the superiority of ICU expansion over other scenarios. In terms of operational costs, ICU beds are more cost effective for saving patients than IMCU beds. However, capital costs of setting up ICU versus IMCU beds should be considered for a complete economic analysis.
Knaus, W. A.; Draper, E. A.; Wagner, D. P.
The APACHE III data base reflects the disease, physiologic status, and outcome data from 17,400 ICU patients at 40 hospitals, 26 of which were randomly selected from representative geographic regions, bed size, and teaching status. This provides a nationally representative standard for measuring several important aspects of ICU performance. Results from the study have now been used to develop an automated information system to provide real time information about expected ICU patient outcome, length of stay, production cost, and ICU performance. The information system provides several new capabilities to ICU clinicians, clinic, and hospital administrators. Among the system's capabilities are: the ability to compare local ICU performance against predetermined criteria; the ability to forecast nursing requirements; and, the ability to make both individual and group patient outcome predictions. The system also provides improved administrative support by tracking ICU charges at the point of origin and reduces staff workload eliminating the requirement for several manually maintained logs and patient lists. APACHE III has the capability to electronically interface with and utilize data already captured in existing hospital information systems, automated laboratory information systems, and patient monitoring systems. APACHE III will also be completely integrated with several CIS vendors' products. PMID:1807779
Available reports on critically ill adults with cystic fibrosis (CF) suggest improving short-term outcomes. However, there is marked heterogeneity in reported findings, with studies mostly based on single-centered data, limiting generalizability. We sought to examine population-level patterns of demand for critical care resources, and the characteristics, resource utilization, and outcomes of ICU-managed adults with CF. We used the Texas Inpatient Public Use Data File to identify ICU admissions with CF aged ≥18 years in Texas between 2004-2013. We examined ICU utilization at population level (using CF Foundation annual reports) and, among ICU admissions, socio-demographic characteristics, burden of comorbidities, organ failure, life-support utilization and hospital disposition. Linear regression and multilevel logistic regression were used to examine temporal trends and predictors of short-term mortality (hospital death and discharge to hospice), respectively. Of 9,579 hospitalizations of adults with CF, 1,249 (13%) were admitted to ICU. The incidence of ICU admission among adults with CF in Texas increased between 2004-2005 and 2012-2013 from 16.7 to 19.2 per 100 person-years (p = 0.0181), with ICU admissions aged ≥30 years accounting for 80.3% of the change. Among ICU admissions the following changes were noted between 2004-2005 and 2012-2013: any organ failure 30.2% vs. 56.3% (p = 0.0004), mechanical ventilation 11.5% vs. 19.2% (p = 0.0216), and hemodialysis 1.0% vs. 8.1% (p = 0.0007). Short-term mortality for the whole cohort and for those with mechanical ventilation was 11.4% and 41.8%, respectively, with corresponding home discharge among survivors 84% and 62.1%, respectively. Key predictors (adjusted odds ratios [aOR (95% CI)]) of short-term mortality included age ≥45 years (2.051 [1.231-3.415]), female gender (1.907 [1.237-2.941]), and mechanical ventilation (7.982 [5.001-12.739]). Adults with CF had high and rising population-level burden of critical
Hill, Nicholas S.; Lilly, Craig M.; Angus, Derek C.; Jacobi, Judith; Rubenfeld, Gordon D.; Rothschild, Jeffrey M.; Sales, Anne E.; Scales, Damon C.; Mathers, James A. L.
ICU telemedicine uses audiovisual conferencing technology to provide critical care from a remote location. Research is needed to best define the optimal use of ICU telemedicine, but efforts are hindered by methodological challenges and the lack of an organized delivery approach. We convened an interdisciplinary working group to develop a research agenda in ICU telemedicine, addressing both methodological and knowledge gaps in the field. To best inform clinical decision-making and health policy, future research should be organized around a conceptual framework that enables consistent descriptions of both the study setting and the telemedicine intervention. The framework should include standardized methods for assessing the preimplementation ICU environment and describing the telemedicine program. This framework will facilitate comparisons across studies and improve generalizability by permitting context-specific interpretation. Research based on this framework should consider the multidisciplinary nature of ICU care and describe the specific program goals. Key topic areas to be addressed include the effect of ICU telemedicine on the structure, process, and outcome of critical care delivery. Ideally, future research should attempt to address causation instead of simply associations and elucidate the mechanism of action in order to determine exactly how ICU telemedicine achieves its effects. ICU telemedicine has significant potential to improve critical care delivery, but high-quality research is needed to best inform its use. We propose an agenda to advance the science of ICU telemedicine and generate research with the greatest potential to improve patient care. PMID:21729894
Wunsch, Hannah; Gershengorn, Hayley; Scales, Damon C
The intensive care unit (ICU) is a complex system and the economic implications of altering care patterns in the ICU can be difficult to unravel. Few studies have specifically examined the economics of implementing organizational and management changes or acknowledged the many competing economic interests of patient, hospital,payer, and society. With continuously increasing healthcare costs,there is a great need for more studies focused on the optimal organization of the ICU. These studies should not focus solely on reductions in ICU length of stay but should strive to measure the true costs of care within a given healthcare system.
Johnson, Joyce T; Wilkes, Jacob F; Menon, Shaji C; Tani, Lloyd Y; Weng, Hsin-Yi; Marino, Bradley S; Pinto, Nelangi M
Neonates undergoing congenital heart surgery require highly specialized, resource-intensive care. Location of care and degree of specialization can vary between and within institutions. Using a multi-institutional cohort, we sought to determine whether location of admission is associated with an increase in health care costs, resource use and mortality. We retrospectively analyzed admission for neonates (<30 days) undergoing congenital heart surgery between 2004 and 2013 by using the Pediatric Health Information Systems database (44 children's hospitals). Multivariate generalized estimating equations adjusted for center- and patient-specific risk factors and stratified by age at admission were performed to examine the association of admission intensive care unit (ICU) with total hospital costs, mortality, and length of stay. Of 19,984 neonates (60% male) identified, 39% were initially admitted to a cardiac ICU (CICU), 48% to a neonatal ICU (NICU), and 13% to a pediatric ICU. In adjusted models, admission to a CICU versus NICU was associated with a $20,440 reduction in total hospital cost for infants aged 2 to 7 days at admission (P = .007) and a $23,700 reduction in total cost for infants aged 8 to 14 days at admission (P = .01). Initial admission to a CICU or pediatric ICU versus NICU at <15 days of age was associated with shorter hospital and ICU length of stay and fewer days of mechanical ventilation. There was no difference in adjusted mortality by admission location. Admission to an ICU specializing in cardiac care is associated with significantly decreased hospital costs and more efficient resource use for neonates requiring cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2018 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Stræde, Mia; Brabrand, Mikkel
Clinical scores can be of aid to predict early mortality after admission to a medical admission unit. A developed scoring system needs to be externally validated to minimise the risk of the discriminatory power and calibration to be falsely elevated. We performed the present study with the objective of validating the Simple Clinical Score (SCS) and the HOTEL score, two existing risk stratification systems that predict mortality for medical patients based solely on clinical information, but not only vital signs. Pre-planned prospective observational cohort study. Danish 460-bed regional teaching hospital. We included 3046 consecutive patients from 2 October 2008 until 19 February 2009. 26 (0.9%) died within one calendar day and 196 (6.4%) died within 30 days. We calculated SCS for 1080 patients. We found an AUROC of 0.960 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.932 to 0.988) for 24-hours mortality and 0.826 (95% CI, 0.774-0.879) for 30-day mortality, and goodness-of-fit test, χ(2) = 2.68 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.998 and χ(2) = 4.00, P = 0.947, respectively. We included 1470 patients when calculating the HOTEL score. Discriminatory power (AUROC) was 0.931 (95% CI, 0.901-0.962) for 24-hours mortality and goodness-of-fit test, χ(2) = 5.56 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.234. We find that both the SCS and HOTEL scores showed an excellent to outstanding ability in identifying patients at high risk of dying with good or acceptable precision.
Stræde, Mia; Brabrand, Mikkel
Background Clinical scores can be of aid to predict early mortality after admission to a medical admission unit. A developed scoring system needs to be externally validated to minimise the risk of the discriminatory power and calibration to be falsely elevated. We performed the present study with the objective of validating the Simple Clinical Score (SCS) and the HOTEL score, two existing risk stratification systems that predict mortality for medical patients based solely on clinical information, but not only vital signs. Methods Pre-planned prospective observational cohort study. Setting Danish 460-bed regional teaching hospital. Findings We included 3046 consecutive patients from 2 October 2008 until 19 February 2009. 26 (0.9%) died within one calendar day and 196 (6.4%) died within 30 days. We calculated SCS for 1080 patients. We found an AUROC of 0.960 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.932 to 0.988) for 24-hours mortality and 0.826 (95% CI, 0.774–0.879) for 30-day mortality, and goodness-of-fit test, χ2 = 2.68 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.998 and χ2 = 4.00, P = 0.947, respectively. We included 1470 patients when calculating the HOTEL score. Discriminatory power (AUROC) was 0.931 (95% CI, 0.901–0.962) for 24-hours mortality and goodness-of-fit test, χ2 = 5.56 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.234. Conclusion We find that both the SCS and HOTEL scores showed an excellent to outstanding ability in identifying patients at high risk of dying with good or acceptable precision. PMID:25144186
Barnato, Amber E; Angus, Derek C
In the United States, intensive care unit (ICU) admission at the end of life is commonplace. What is the value and role of ICU mortality prediction models for informing the utility of ICU care?In this article, we review the history, statistical underpinnings,and current deployment of these models in clinical care. We conclude that the use of outcome prediction models to ration care that is unlikely to provide an expected benefit is hampered by imperfect performance, the lack of real-time availability, failure to consider functional outcomes beyond survival, and physician resistance to the use of probabilistic information when death is guaranteed by the decision it informs. Among these barriers, the most important technical deficiency is the lack of automated information systems to provide outcome predictions to decision makers, and the most important research and policy agenda is to understand and address our national ambivalence toward rationing care based on any criterion.
Mohammed, Mohammed A.; Rudge, Gavin; Watson, Duncan; Wood, Gordon; Smith, Gary B.; Prytherch, David R.; Girling, Alan; Stevens, Andrew
Background We explored the use of routine blood tests and national early warning scores (NEWS) reported within ±24 hours of admission to predict in-hospital mortality in emergency admissions, using empirical decision Tree models because they are intuitive and may ultimately be used to support clinical decision making. Methodology A retrospective analysis of adult emergency admissions to a large acute hospital during April 2009 to March 2010 in the West Midlands, England, with a full set of index blood tests results (albumin, creatinine, haemoglobin, potassium, sodium, urea, white cell count and an index NEWS undertaken within ±24 hours of admission). We developed a Tree model by randomly splitting the admissions into a training (50%) and validation dataset (50%) and assessed its accuracy using the concordance (c-) statistic. Emergency admissions (about 30%) did not have a full set of index blood tests and/or NEWS and so were not included in our analysis. Results There were 23248 emergency admissions with a full set of blood tests and NEWS with an in-hospital mortality of 5.69%. The Tree model identified age, NEWS, albumin, sodium, white cell count and urea as significant (p<0.001) predictors of death, which described 17 homogeneous subgroups of admissions with mortality ranging from 0.2% to 60%. The c-statistic for the training model was 0.864 (95%CI 0.852 to 0.87) and when applied to the testing data set this was 0.853 (95%CI 0.840 to 0.866). Conclusions An easy to interpret validated risk adjustment Tree model using blood test and NEWS taken within ±24 hours of admission provides good discrimination and offers a novel approach to risk adjustment which may potentially support clinical decision making. Given the nature of the clinical data, the results are likely to be generalisable but further research is required to investigate this promising approach. PMID:23734195
Geboers, Diederik G P J; de Beer, Friso M; Tuip-de Boer, Anita M; van der Poll, Tom; Horn, Janneke; Cremer, Olaf L; Bonten, Marc J M; Ong, David S Y; Schultz, Marcus J; Bos, Lieuwe D J
We investigated the prognostic value of plasma soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) on day 1 in patients with the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) for intensive care unit (ICU) mortality and compared it with established disease severity scores on day 1. suPAR was determined batchwise in plasma obtained within 24 h after admission. 632 ARDS patients were included. Significantly (P = 0.02) higher median levels of suPAR were found with increasing severity of ARDS: 5.9 ng/ml [IQR 3.1-12.8] in mild ARDS (n = 82), 8.4 ng/ml [IQR 4.1-15.0] in moderate ARDS (n = 333), and 9.0 ng/ml [IQR 4.5-16.0] in severe ARDS (n = 217). Non-survivors had higher median levels of suPAR [12.5 ng/ml (IQR 5.1-19.5) vs. 7.4 ng/ml (3.9-13.6), P < 0.001]. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) for mortality of suPAR (0.62) was lower than the ROC-AUC of the APACHE IV score (0.72, P = 0.007), higher than that of the ARDS definition classification (0.53, P = 0.005), and did not differ from that of the SOFA score (0.68, P = 0.07) and the oxygenation index (OI) (0.58, P = 0.29). Plasma suPAR did not improve the discrimination of the established disease severity scores, but did improve net reclassification of the APACHE score (29%), SOFA score (23%), OI (38%), and Berlin definition classification (39%). As a single biological marker, the prognostic value for death of plasma suPAR in ARDS patients is low. Plasma suPAR, however, improves the net reclassification, suggesting a potential role for suPAR in ICU mortality prediction models.
MacKenzie, R K; Dowell, J; Ayansina, D; Cleland, J A
Traditional methods of assessing personality traits in medical school selection have been heavily criticised. To address this at the point of selection, "non-cognitive" tests were included in the UK Clinical Aptitude Test, the most widely-used aptitude test in UK medical education (UKCAT: http://www.ukcat.ac.uk/ ). We examined the predictive validity of these non-cognitive traits with performance during and on exit from medical school. We sampled all students graduating in 2013 from the 30 UKCAT consortium medical schools. Analysis included: candidate demographics, UKCAT non-cognitive scores, medical school performance data-the Educational Performance Measure (EPM) and national exit situational judgement test (SJT) outcomes. We examined the relationships between these variables and SJT and EPM scores. Multilevel modelling was used to assess the relationships adjusting for confounders. The 3343 students who had taken the UKCAT non-cognitive tests and had both EPM and SJT data were entered into the analysis. There were four types of non-cognitive test: (1) libertariancommunitarian, (2) NACE-narcissism, aloofness, confidence and empathy, (3) MEARS-self-esteem, optimism, control, self-discipline, emotional-nondefensiveness (END) and faking, (4) an abridged version of 1 and 2 combined. Multilevel regression showed that, after correcting for demographic factors, END predicted SJT and EPM decile. Aloofness and empathy in NACE were predictive of SJT score. This is the first large-scale study examining the relationship between performance on non-cognitive selection tests and medical school exit assessments. The predictive validity of these tests was limited, and the relationships revealed do not fit neatly with theoretical expectations. This study does not support their use in selection.
Background Knowledge in natural sciences generally predicts study performance in the first two years of the medical curriculum. In order to reduce delay and dropout in the preclinical years, Hamburg Medical School decided to develop a natural science test (HAM-Nat) for student selection. In the present study, two different approaches to scale construction are presented: a unidimensional scale and a scale composed of three subject specific dimensions. Their psychometric properties and relations to academic success are compared. Methods 334 first year medical students of the 2006 cohort responded to 52 multiple choice items from biology, physics, and chemistry. For the construction of scales we generated two random subsamples, one for development and one for validation. In the development sample, unidimensional item sets were extracted from the item pool by means of weighted least squares (WLS) factor analysis, and subsequently fitted to the Rasch model. In the validation sample, the scales were subjected to confirmatory factor analysis and, again, Rasch modelling. The outcome measure was academic success after two years. Results Although the correlational structure within the item set is weak, a unidimensional scale could be fitted to the Rasch model. However, psychometric properties of this scale deteriorated in the validation sample. A model with three highly correlated subject specific factors performed better. All summary scales predicted academic success with an odds ratio of about 2.0. Prediction was independent of high school grades and there was a slight tendency for prediction to be better in females than in males. Conclusions A model separating biology, physics, and chemistry into different Rasch scales seems to be more suitable for item bank development than a unidimensional model, even when these scales are highly correlated and enter into a global score. When such a combination scale is used to select the upper quartile of applicants, the proportion of
Hissbach, Johanna C; Klusmann, Dietrich; Hampe, Wolfgang
Knowledge in natural sciences generally predicts study performance in the first two years of the medical curriculum. In order to reduce delay and dropout in the preclinical years, Hamburg Medical School decided to develop a natural science test (HAM-Nat) for student selection. In the present study, two different approaches to scale construction are presented: a unidimensional scale and a scale composed of three subject specific dimensions. Their psychometric properties and relations to academic success are compared. 334 first year medical students of the 2006 cohort responded to 52 multiple choice items from biology, physics, and chemistry. For the construction of scales we generated two random subsamples, one for development and one for validation. In the development sample, unidimensional item sets were extracted from the item pool by means of weighted least squares (WLS) factor analysis, and subsequently fitted to the Rasch model. In the validation sample, the scales were subjected to confirmatory factor analysis and, again, Rasch modelling. The outcome measure was academic success after two years. Although the correlational structure within the item set is weak, a unidimensional scale could be fitted to the Rasch model. However, psychometric properties of this scale deteriorated in the validation sample. A model with three highly correlated subject specific factors performed better. All summary scales predicted academic success with an odds ratio of about 2.0. Prediction was independent of high school grades and there was a slight tendency for prediction to be better in females than in males. A model separating biology, physics, and chemistry into different Rasch scales seems to be more suitable for item bank development than a unidimensional model, even when these scales are highly correlated and enter into a global score. When such a combination scale is used to select the upper quartile of applicants, the proportion of successful completion of the curriculum
Riché, Florence; Chousterman, Benjamin G; Valleur, Patrice; Mebazaa, Alexandre; Launay, Jean-Marie; Gayat, Etienne
Sepsis is a leading cause of mortality and critical illness worldwide and is associated with an increased mortality rate in the months following hospital discharge. The occurrence of persistent or new organ dysfunction(s) after septic shock raises questions about the mechanisms involved in the post-sepsis status. The present study aimed to explore the immune profiles of patients one year after being discharged from the intensive care unit (ICU) following treatment for abdominal septic shock. We conducted a prospective, single-center, observational study in the surgical ICU of a university hospital. Eighty-six consecutive patients admitted for septic shock of abdominal origin were included in this study. Fifteen different plasma biomarkers were measured at ICU admission, at ICU discharge and at one year after ICU discharge. Three different clusters of biomarkers were distinguished according to their functions, namely: (1) inflammatory response, (2) cell damage and apoptosis, (3) immunosuppression and resolution of inflammation. The primary objective was to characterize variations in the immune status of septic shock patients admitted to ICU up to one year after ICU discharge. The secondary objective was to evaluate the relationship between these biomarker variations and patient outcomes. At the onset of septic shock, we observed a cohesive pro-inflammatory profile and low levels of inflammation resolution markers. At ICU discharge, the immune status demonstrated decreased but persistent inflammation and increased immunosuppression, with elevated programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1) levels, and a counterbalanced resolution process, with elevated levels of interleukin-10 (IL-10), resolvin D5 (RvD5), and IL-7. One year after hospital discharge, homeostasis was not completely restored with several markers of inflammation remaining elevated. Remarkably, IL-7 was persistently elevated, with levels comparable to those observed after ICU discharge, and PD-1, while lower
Khan, Faheem; Owens, Mark B; Restrepo, Marcos; Povoa, Pedro; Martin-Loeches, Ignacio
Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is one of the most common causes of mortality world-wide. The mortality rate of patients with CAP is influenced by the severity of the disease, treatment failure and the requirement for hospitalization and/or intensive care unit (ICU) management, all of which may be predicted by biomarkers and clinical scoring systems. Areas covered: We review the recent literature examining the efficacy of established and newly-developed clinical scores, biological and inflammatory markers such as C-Reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) and Interleukin-6 (IL-6), whether used alone or in conjunction with clinical severity scores to assess the severity of CAP, predict treatment failure, guide acute in-hospital or ICU admission and predict mortality. Expert commentary: The early prediction of treatment failure using clinical scores and biomarkers plays a developing role in improving survival of patients with CAP by identifying high-risk patients requiring hospitalization or ICU admission; and may enable more efficient allocation of resources. However, it is likely that combinations of scoring systems and biomarkers will be of greater use than individual markers. Further larger studies are needed to corroborate the additive value of these markers to clinical prediction scores to provide a safer and more effective assessment tool for clinicians.
Brown, Samuel M; Azoulay, Elie; Benoit, Dominique; Butler, Terri Payne; Folcarelli, Patricia; Geller, Gail; Rozenblum, Ronen; Sands, Ken; Sokol-Hessner, Lauge; Talmor, Daniel; Turner, Kathleen; Howell, Michael D
Although "respect" and "dignity" are intuitive concepts, little formal work has addressed their systematic application in the ICU setting. After convening a multidisciplinary group of relevant experts, we undertook a review of relevant literature and collaborative discussions focused on the practice of respect in the ICU. We report the output of this process, including a summary of current knowledge, a conceptual framework, and a research program for understanding and improving the practice of respect and dignity in the ICU. We separate our report into findings and proposals. Findings include the following: 1) dignity and respect are interrelated; 2) ICU patients and families are vulnerable to disrespect; 3) violations of respect and dignity appear to be common in the ICU and overlap substantially with dehumanization; 4) disrespect may be associated with both primary and secondary harms; and 5) systemic barriers complicate understanding and the reliable practice of respect in the ICU. Proposals include: 1) initiating and/or expanding a field of research on the practice of respect in the ICU; 2) treating "failures of respect" as analogous to patient safety events and using existing quality and safety mechanisms for improvement; and 3) identifying both benefits and potential unintended consequences of efforts to improve the practice of respect. Respect and dignity are important considerations in the ICU, even as substantial additional research remains to be done.
Chico-Fernández, M; Llompart-Pou, J A; Guerrero-López, F; Sánchez-Casado, M; García-Sáez, I; Mayor-García, M D; Egea-Guerrero, J; Fernández-Ortega, J F; Bueno-González, A; González-Robledo, J; Servià-Goixart, L; Roldán-Ramírez, J; Ballesteros-Sanz, M Á; Tejerina-Alvarez, E; García-Fuentes, C; Alberdi-Odriozola, F
To describe the characteristics and management of severe trauma disease in Spanish Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Registry of trauma in the ICU (RETRAUCI). Pilot phase. A prospective, multicenter registry. Thirteen Spanish ICUs. Patients with trauma disease admitted to the ICU. None. Epidemiology, out-of-hospital attention, registry of injuries, resources utilization, complications and outcome were evaluated. Patients, n=2242. Mean age 47.1±19.02 years. Males 79%. Blunt trauma 93.9%. Injury Severity Score 22.2±12.1, Revised Trauma Score 6.7±1.6. Non-intentional in 84.4% of the cases. The most common causes of trauma were traffic accidents followed by pedestrian and high-energy falls. Up to 12.4% were taking antiplatelet medication or anticoagulants. Almost 28% had a suspected or confirmed toxic influence in trauma. Up to 31.5% required an out-of-hospital artificial airway. The time from trauma to ICU admission was 4.7±5.3hours. At ICU admission, 68.5% were hemodynamically stable. Brain and chest injuries predominated. A large number of complications were documented. Mechanical ventilation was used in 69.5% of the patients (mean 8.2±9.9 days), of which 24.9% finally required a tracheostomy. The median duration of stay in the ICU and in hospital was 5 (range 3-13) and 9 (5-19) days, respectively. The ICU mortality rate was 12.3%, while the in-hospital mortality rate was 16.0%. The pilot phase of the RETRAUCI offers a first impression of the epidemiology and management of trauma disease in Spanish ICUs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.
Admission factors associated with hospital mortality in patients with haematological malignancy admitted to UK adult, general critical care units: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database
model had the best discrimination of the three scores analysed, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78, but all scores were poorly calibrated. APACHE II had the highest accuracy at predicting hospital mortality, with a standardised mortality ratio of 1.01. SAPS II and the ICNARC score both underestimated hospital mortality. Conclusions Increased hospital mortality is associated with the length of hospital stay prior to ICU admission and with severe sepsis, suggesting that, if appropriate, such patients should be treated aggressively with early ICU admission. A low haematocrit was associated with higher mortality and this relationship requires further investigation. The severity-of-illness scores assessed in this study had reasonable discriminative power, but none showed good calibration. PMID:19706163
Admission factors associated with hospital mortality in patients with haematological malignancy admitted to UK adult, general critical care units: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database.
Hampshire, Peter A; Welch, Catherine A; McCrossan, Lawrence A; Francis, Katharine; Harrison, David A
of the three scores analysed, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78, but all scores were poorly calibrated. APACHE II had the highest accuracy at predicting hospital mortality, with a standardised mortality ratio of 1.01. SAPS II and the ICNARC score both underestimated hospital mortality. Increased hospital mortality is associated with the length of hospital stay prior to ICU admission and with severe sepsis, suggesting that, if appropriate, such patients should be treated aggressively with early ICU admission. A low haematocrit was associated with higher mortality and this relationship requires further investigation. The severity-of-illness scores assessed in this study had reasonable discriminative power, but none showed good calibration.
Can paediatric early warning scores (PEWS) be used to guide the need for hospital admission and predict significant illness in children presenting to the emergency department? An assessment of PEWS diagnostic accuracy using sensitivity and specificity.
Lillitos, Peter J; Hadley, Graeme; Maconochie, Ian
Designed to detect early deterioration of the hospitalised child, paediatric early warning scores (PEWS) validity in the emergency department (ED) is less validated. We aimed to evaluate sensitivity and specificity of two commonly used PEWS (Brighton and COAST) in predicting hospital admission and, for the first time, significant illness. Retrospective analysis of PEWS data for paediatric ED attendances at St Mary's Hospital, London, UK, in November 2012. Patients with missing data were excluded. Diagnoses were grouped: medical and surgical. To classify diagnoses as significant, established guidelines were used and, where not available, common agreement between three acute paediatricians. 1921 patients were analysed. There were 211 admissions (11%). 1630 attendances were medical (86%) and 273 (14%) surgical. Brighton and COAST PEWS performed similarly. hospital admission: PEWS of ≥3 was specific (93%) but poorly sensitive (32%). The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was low at 0.690. Significant illness: for medical illness, PEWS ≥3 was highly specific (96%) but poorly sensitive (44%). The AUC was 0.754 and 0.755 for Brighton and COAST PEWS, respectively. Both scores performed poorly for predicting significant surgical illness (AUC 0.642). PEWS ≥3 performed well in predicting significant respiratory illness: sensitivity 75%, specificity 91%. Both Brighton and COAST PEWS scores performed similarly. A score of ≥3 has good specificity but poor sensitivity for predicting hospital admission and significant illness. Therefore, a high PEWS should be taken seriously but a low score is poor at ruling out the requirement for admission or serious underlying illness. PEWS was better at detecting significant medical illness compared with detecting the need for admission. PEWS performed poorly in detecting significant surgical illness. PEWS may be particularly useful in evaluating respiratory illness in a paediatric ED. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group
Herrera-Gutiérrez, M E; Seller-Pérez, G; Maynar-Moliner, J; Sánchez-Izquierdo-Riera, J A
Multicenter study oriented at establishing the incidence and prognosis of acute kidney failure (AKF) in the ICU of our country. Prospective study of adult patients admitted over 8 months in 43 Spanish ICUs to detect AKF defined as creatinine>or=2 mg/dl or diuresis<400 ml/24 hours (in chronic patients 100% increase of creatinine, excluding those with baseline creatinine>or=4 mg/dl). 901 episodes of AKF (AKF episodes (incidence 5.7%), 55% of which occurred on admission. A total of 38.4% of the episodes were due to acute tubular necrosis (ATN), 36.6% to prerenal, and 21.2% to mixed. Renal depuration (RC) was required in 38%. Mortality was 42.3% during the AKF episode (34.1% in those who were admitted with AKF versus 50.9% in those who developed it after admission), 80% in patients with Hepatorenal Syndrome, 51.6% in ATN and 29.9% in prerenal. We detect an independent relationship with mortality for age (OR 1.03), background of diabetes (OR 2.06), development of AKF in the ICU (OR 2.51), oliguria (OR 5.76) and RC (OR 2.32). Recovery of the kidney function occurred in 85.6% of the survivors and RC was maintained in only 1.1% on discharge from the ICU. We calculated the area under the curve of APACHE II on admission (0.62), SOFA on onset of AKF (0.68), Liaño index (0.7) and maximum SOFA (0.79). AKF in ICU patients does not show an elevated incidence but does have high mortality, presenting greater seriousness when it appears after admission. However, recovery is elevated in patients who survive. The usual prognostic indexes are not exact in this patient group, the ISA and maximum SOFA being those which shows a closer relationship with mortality.
El-Fakhouri, Silene; Carrasco, Hugo Victor Cocca Gimenez; Araújo, Guilherme Campos; Frini, Inara Cristina Marciano
To characterize the epidemiological profile of the hospitalized population in the ICU of Hospital das Clínicas de Marília (Famema). A retrospective, descriptive and quantitative study. Data regarding patients admitted to the ICU Famema was obtained from the Technical Information Center (Núcleo Técnico de Informações, NTI, Famema). For data analysis, we used the distribution of absolute and relative frequencies with simple statistical treatment. 2,022 ICU admissions were recorded from June 2010 to July 2012 with 1,936 being coded according to the ICD-10. The epidemiological profile comprised mostly males (57.91%), predominantly seniors ≥ 60 years (48.89%), at an average age of 56.64 years (±19.18), with limited formal education (63.3% complete primary school), mostly white (77.10%), Catholic (75.12%), from the city of Marília, state of São Paulo, Brazil (53.81%). The average occupancy rate was 94.42%. The predominant cause of morbidity was diseases of the circulatory system with 494 admissions (25.5%), followed by traumas and external causes with 446 admissions (23.03%) and neoplasms with 213 admissions (11.00%). The average stay was 8.09 days (±10.73). The longest average stay was due to skin and subcutaneous tissue diseases, with average stay of 12.77 days (±17.07). There were 471 deaths (24.32%), mainly caused by diseases of the circulatory system (30.99%). The age group with the highest mortality was the range from 70 to 79 years with 102 deaths (21.65%). The ICU Famema presents an epidemiological profile similar to other intensive care units in Brazil and worldwide, despite the few studies available in the literature. Thus, we feel in tune with the treatment of critical care patients.
De Berardinis, Benedetta; Gaggin, Hanna K; Magrini, Laura; Belcher, Arianna; Zancla, Benedetta; Femia, Alexandra; Simon, Mandy; Motiwala, Shweta; Bhardwaj, Anju; Parry, Blair A; Nagurney, John T; Coudriou, Charles; Legrand, Matthieu; Sadoune, Malha; Di Somma, Salvatore; Januzzi, James L
In order to predict the occurrence of worsening renal function (WRF) and of WRF plus in-hospital death, 101 emergency department (ED) patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) were evaluated with testing for amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), BNP, sST2, and neutrophil gelatinase associated lipocalin (NGAL). In a prospective international study, biomarkers were collected at the time of admission; the occurrence of subsequent in hospital WRF was evaluated. In total 26% of patients developed WRF. Compared to patients without WRF, those with WRF had a longer in-hospital length of stay (LOS) (mean LOS 13.1±13.4 days vs. 4.8±3.7 days, p<0.001) and higher in-hospital mortality [6/26 (23%) vs. 2/75 (2.6%), p<0.001]. Among the biomarkers assessed, baseline NT-proBNP (4846 vs. 3024 pg/mL; p=0.04), BNP (609 vs. 435 pg/mL; p=0.05) and NGAL (234 vs. 174 pg/mL; p=0.05) were each higher in those who developed WRF. In logistic regression, the combination of elevated natriuretic peptide and NGAL were additively predictive for WRF (ORNT-proBNP+NGAL=2.79; ORBNP+NGAL=3.11; both p<0.04). Rates of WRF were considerably higher in patients with elevation of both classes of biomarker. Comparable results were observed in a separate cohort of 162 patients with ADHF from a different center. In ED patients with ADHF, the combination of NT-proBNP or BNP plus NGAL at presentation may be useful to predict impending WRF (Clinicaltrials.gov NCT#0150153).
Marini, Jessica P.; Shaw, Emily J.; Young, Linda
During the transition period between the use of exclusively old SAT® scores and the use of exclusively new SAT scores, college admission offices will be receiving both types of scores from students. Making an admission decision based on new SAT scores can be challenging at first because institutions have methods, procedures, and models based on…
Tirumala, Suhasini; Behera, Bijayini; Lingala, Shilpa; Kumar, B Vijay; Mishra, Pradeep Kumar; Gurunath, J M; HariCharan; Kartik; Naresh
Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is associated with adverse clinical outcomes in immunosuppressed persons. The incidence and association of CMV reactivation with adverse clinical outcomes in critically ill persons lacking evidence of immunosuppression at ICU admission has received great attention in the practice of critical care medicine. Critically ill patients in ICU who had associated risk factors such as mechanical ventilation, severe sepsis, or blood transfusion are more prone to CMV activation, which in turn led to increased mortality and morbidity in terms of increased ICU stay, longer duration of mechanical ventilation, and higher rates of nosocomial infections. However, severe CMV as initial presentation mimicking dengue infection is rare. We recently came across seven cases with positive CMV serology at ICU admission, which we discuss in the light of current literature. Copyright © 2012 Hainan Medical College. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Wischmeyer, Paul E; San-Millan, Inigo
Over the last 10 years we have significantly reduced hospital mortality from sepsis and critical illness. However, the evidence reveals that over the same period we have tripled the number of patients being sent to rehabilitation settings. Further, given that as many as half of the deaths in the first year following ICU admission occur post ICU discharge, it is unclear how many of these patients ever returned home. For those who do survive, the latest data indicate that 50-70% of ICU "survivors" will suffer cognitive impairment and 60-80% of "survivors" will suffer functional impairment or ICU-acquired weakness (ICU-AW). These observations demand that we as intensive care providers ask the following questions: "Are we creating survivors ... or are we creating victims?" and "Do we accomplish 'Pyrrhic Victories' in the ICU?" Interventions to address ICU-AW must have a renewed focus on optimal nutrition, anabolic/anticatabolic strategies, and in the future employ the personalized muscle and exercise evaluation techniques utilized by elite athletes to optimize performance. Specifically, strategies must include optimal protein delivery (1.2-2.0 g/kg/day), as an athlete would routinely employ. However, as is clear in elite sports performance, optimal nutrition is fundamental but alone is often not enough. We know burn patients can remain catabolic for 2 years post burn; thus, anticatabolic agents (i.e., beta-blockers) and anabolic agents (i.e., oxandrolone) will probably also be essential. In the near future, evaluation techniques such as assessing lean body mass at the bedside using ultrasound to determine nutritional status and ultrasound-measured muscle glycogen as a marker of muscle injury and recovery could be utilized to help find the transition from the acute phase of critical illness to the recovery phase. Finally, exercise physiology testing that evaluates muscle substrate utilization during exercise can be used to diagnose muscle mitochondrial dysfunction and
Gurieva, Tanya; Bootsma, Martin C. J.; Bonten, Marc J. M.
Nosocomial infection rates due to antibiotic-resistant bacteriae, e.g., methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) remain high in most countries. Screening for MRSA carriage followed by barrier precautions for documented carriers (so-called screen and isolate (S&I)) has been successful in some, but not all settings. Moreover, different strategies have been proposed, but comparative studies determining their relative effects and costs are not available. We, therefore, used a mathematical model to evaluate the effect and costs of different S&I strategies and to identify the critical parameters for this outcome. The dynamic stochastic simulation model consists of 3 hospitals with general wards and intensive care units (ICUs) and incorporates readmission of carriers of MRSA. Patient flow between ICUs and wards was based on real observations. Baseline prevalence of MRSA was set at 20% in ICUs and hospital-wide at 5%; ranges of costs and infection rates were based on published data. Four S&I strategies were compared to a do-nothing scenario: S&I of previously documented carriers (“flagged” patients); S&I of flagged patients and ICU admissions; S&I of flagged and group of “frequent” patients; S&I of all hospital admissions (universal screening). Evaluated levels of efficacy of S&I were 10%, 25%, 50% and 100%. Our model predicts that S&I of flagged and S&I of flagged and ICU patients are the most cost-saving strategies with fastest return of investment. For low isolation efficacy universal screening and S&I of flagged and “frequent” patients may never become cost-saving. Universal screening is predicted to prevent hardly more infections than S&I of flagged and “frequent” patients, albeit at higher costs. Whether an intervention becomes cost-saving within 10 years critically depends on costs per infection in ICU, costs of screening and isolation efficacy. PMID:23436984
Gurieva, Tanya; Bootsma, Martin C J; Bonten, Marc J M
Nosocomial infection rates due to antibiotic-resistant bacteriae, e.g., methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) remain high in most countries. Screening for MRSA carriage followed by barrier precautions for documented carriers (so-called screen and isolate (S&I)) has been successful in some, but not all settings. Moreover, different strategies have been proposed, but comparative studies determining their relative effects and costs are not available. We, therefore, used a mathematical model to evaluate the effect and costs of different S&I strategies and to identify the critical parameters for this outcome. The dynamic stochastic simulation model consists of 3 hospitals with general wards and intensive care units (ICUs) and incorporates readmission of carriers of MRSA. Patient flow between ICUs and wards was based on real observations. Baseline prevalence of MRSA was set at 20% in ICUs and hospital-wide at 5%; ranges of costs and infection rates were based on published data. Four S&I strategies were compared to a do-nothing scenario: S&I of previously documented carriers ("flagged" patients); S&I of flagged patients and ICU admissions; S&I of flagged and group of "frequent" patients; S&I of all hospital admissions (universal screening). Evaluated levels of efficacy of S&I were 10%, 25%, 50% and 100%. Our model predicts that S&I of flagged and S&I of flagged and ICU patients are the most cost-saving strategies with fastest return of investment. For low isolation efficacy universal screening and S&I of flagged and "frequent" patients may never become cost-saving. Universal screening is predicted to prevent hardly more infections than S&I of flagged and "frequent" patients, albeit at higher costs. Whether an intervention becomes cost-saving within 10 years critically depends on costs per infection in ICU, costs of screening and isolation efficacy.
Naqvi, Iftikhar Haider; Mahmood, Khalid; Ziaullaha, Syed; Kashif, Syed Mohammad; Sharif, Asim
This study was designed to determine the comparative efficacy of different scoring system in assessing the prognosis of critically ill patients. This was a retrospective study conducted in medical intensive care unit (MICU) and high dependency unit (HDU) Medical Unit III, Civil Hospital, from April 2012 to August 2012. All patients over age 16 years old who have fulfilled the criteria for MICU admission were included. Predictive mortality of APACHE II, SAP II and SOFA were calculated. Calibration and discrimination were used for validity of each scoring model. A total of 96 patients with equal gender distribution were enrolled. The average APACHE II score in non-survivors (27.97+8.53) was higher than survivors (15.82+8.79) with statistically significant p value (<0.001). The average SOFA score in non-survivors (9.68+4.88) was higher than survivors (5.63+3.63) with statistically significant p value (<0.001). SAP II average score in non-survivors (53.71+19.05) was higher than survivors (30.18+16.24) with statistically significant p value (<0.001). All three tested scoring models (APACHE II, SAP II and SOFA) would be accurate enough for a general description of our ICU patients. APACHE II has showed better calibration and discrimination power than SAP II and SOFA.
de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho, Micheline; Luiz Teixeira Gonçalves, Fabio; do Rosário Dias de Oliveira Latorre, Maria
This study is aimed at creating a stochastic model, named Brazilian Climate and Health Model (BCHM), through Poisson regression, in order to predict the occurrence of hospital respiratory admissions (for children under thirteen years of age) as a function of air pollutants, meteorological variables, and thermal comfort indices (effective temperatures, ET). The data used in this study were obtained from the city of São Paulo, Brazil, between 1997 and 2000. The respiratory tract diseases were divided into three categories: URI (Upper Respiratory tract diseases), LRI (Lower Respiratory tract diseases), and IP (Influenza and Pneumonia). The overall results of URI, LRI, and IP show clear correlation with SO2 and CO, PM10 and O3, and PM10, respectively, and the ETw4 (Effective Temperature) for all the three disease groups. It is extremely important to warn the government of the most populated city in Brazil about the outcome of this study, providing it with valuable information in order to help it better manage its resources on behalf of the whole population of the city of Sao Paulo, especially those with low incomes. PMID:20706674
van den Oever, Huub L A; van Dam, Mirja; van 't Riet, Esther; Jansman, Frank G A
Many patients with intentional drug overdose (IDO) are admitted to a medium (MC) or intensive care unit (IC) without ever requiring MC/IC related interventions. The objective of this study was to develop a decision tool, using parameters readily available in the emergency room (ER) for patients with an IDO, to identify patients requiring admission to a monitoring unit. Retrospective cohort study among cases of IDO with drugs having potentially acute effects on neurological, circulatory or ventilatory function, admitted to the MC/IC unit between 2007 and 2013. A decision tool was developed, using 6 criteria, representing intubation, breathing, oxygenation, cardiac conduction, blood pressure, and consciousness. Cases were labeled as 'high acuity' if one or more criteria were present. Among 255 cases of IDO that met the inclusion criteria, 197 were identified as "high acuity". Only 70 of 255 cases underwent one or more MC/IC related interventions, of which 67 were identified as 'high acuity by the decision tool (sensitivity 95.7%). In a population of patients with intentional drug overdose with agents having potentially acute effect on vital functions, 95.7% of MC/IC interventions could be predicted by clinical assessment, supplemented with electrocardiogram and blood gas analysis, in the ER. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Crilly, Julia L; Boyle, Justin; Jessup, Melanie; Wallis, Marianne; Lind, James; Green, David; FitzGerald, Gerry
To evaluate the implementation of a Patient Admission Prediction Tool (PAPT) in terms of patient flow outcomes and decision-making strategies. The PAPT was implemented in 2 Australian public teaching hospitals during October-December 2010 (hospital A) and October-December 2011 (hospital B). A multisite prospective, comparative (before and after) design was used. Patient flow outcomes measured included access block and hospital occupancy. Daily and weekly data were collected from patient flow reports and routinely collected emergency department information by the site champion and researchers. Daily decision-making strategies ranged from business as usual to use of overcensus beds. Weekly strategies included advanced approval to use of overcensus beds and prebooking nursing staff. These strategies resulted in improved weekend discharges to manage incoming demand for the following week. Following the introduction of the PAPT and workflow guidelines, patient access and hospital occupancy levels could be maintained despite increases in patient presentations (hospital A). The use of a PAPT, embedded in patient flow management processes and championed by a manager, can benefit bed and staff management. Further research that incorporates wider evaluation of the use of the tool at other sites is warranted.
Mather, Jeffrey F; Corradi, John P; Waszynski, Christine; Noyes, Adam; Duan, Yinghui; Grady, James; Dicks, Robert
To examine the association between statin use and the risk of delirium in hospitalized patients with an admission to the medical ICU. Retrospective propensity-matched cohort analysis with accrual from September 1, 2012, to September 30, 2015. Hartford Hospital, Hartford, CT. An initial population of patients with an admission to a medical ICU totaling 10,216 visits were screened for delirium by means of the Confusion Assessment Method. After exclusions, a population of 6,664 was used to match statin users and nonstatin users. The propensity-matched cohort resulted in a sample of 1,475 patients receiving statin matched 1:1 with control patients not using statin. None. Delirium defined as a positive Confusion Assessment Method assessment was the primary end point. The prevalence of delirium was 22.3% in the unmatched cohort and 22.8% in the propensity-matched cohort. Statin use was associated with a significant decrease in the risk of delirium (odds ratio, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.38-0.56). Considering the type of statin used, atorvastatin (0.51; 0.41-0.64), pravastatin (0.40; 0.28-0.58), and simvastatin (0.33; 0.21-0.52) were all significantly associated with a reduced frequency of delirium. The use of statins was independently associated with a reduction in the risk of delirium in hospitalized patients. When considering types of statins used, this reduction was significant in patients using atorvastatin, pravastatin, and simvastatin. Randomized trials of various statin types in hospitalized patients prone to delirium should validate their use in protection from delirium.
Ha, Sang Ook; Park, Sang Hyuk; Hong, Sang Bum; Jang, Seongsoo
Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) is a major complication in sepsis patients. We compared the performance of five DIC diagnostic criteria, focusing on the prediction of mortality. One hundred patients with severe sepsis or septic shock admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) were enrolled. Routine DIC laboratory tests were performed over the first 4 days after admission. The overall ICU and 28-day mortality in DIC patients diagnosed from five criteria (International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis [ISTH], the Japanese Association for Acute Medicine [JAAM], the revised JAAM [R-JAAM], the Japanese Ministry of Health and Welfare [JMHW] and the Korean Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis [KSTH]) were compared. Both KSTH and JMHW criteria showed superior performance than ISTH, JAAM and R-JAAM criteria in the prediction of overall ICU mortality in DIC patients (odds ratio 3.828 and 5.181, P = 0.018 and 0.006, 95% confidence interval 1.256-11.667 and 1.622-16.554, respectively) when applied at day 1 after admission, and survival analysis demonstrated significant prognostic impact of KSTH and JMHW criteria on the prediction of 28-day mortality (P = 0.007 and 0.049, respectively) when applied at day 1 after admission. In conclusion, both KSTH and JMHW criteria would be more useful than other three criteria in predicting prognosis in DIC patients with severe sepsis or septic shock.
Grover, Amit S; Kadiyala, Vivek; Banks, Peter A; Grand, Richard J; Conwell, Darwin L; Lightdale, Jenifer R
Pediatric patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) may meet criteria at admission for the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). Early SIRS in adults with AP is associated with severe disease. Our aim was to evaluate the importance of SIRS in children presenting with AP on various outcomes. This is a retrospective cohort study of children hospitalized with AP at Boston Children's Hospital in 2010. Increased length of stay (LOS) and/or admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) served as the primary outcomes. Statistical analyses of measures studied included the presence of SIRS, demographic, and clinical information present on admission. Fifty encounters, in which AP was the primary admitting diagnosis, were documented. Patients had a median LOS of 4.5 (interquartile range, 2-9) days. Systemic inflammatory response syndrome was present in 22 (44%) of 50 patients at admission. Systemic inflammatory response syndrome at admission was an independent predictor of increased LOS (odds ratio, 7.99; P = 0.045) as well as admission to the ICU (odds ratio, 12.06; P = 0.027). The presence of SIRS criteria on admission serves as a useful and easy-to-calculate predictor of increased LOS and admission to ICU in children with AP.
Halpern, Neil A
Successfully designing a new ICU requires clarity of vision and purpose and the recognition that the patient room is the core of the ICU experience for patients, staff, and visitors. The ICU can be conceptualized into three components: the patient room, central areas, and universal support services. Each patient room should be designed for single patient use and be similarly configured and equipped. The design of the room should focus upon functionality, ease of use, healing, safety, infection control, communications, and connectivity. All aspects of the room, including its infrastructure; zones for work, care, and visiting; environment, medical devices, and approaches to privacy; logistics; and waste management, are important elements in the design process. Since most medical devices used at the ICU bedside are really sophisticated computers, the ICU needs to be capable of supporting the full scope of medical informatics. The patient rooms, the central ICU areas (central stations, corridors, supply rooms, pharmacy, laboratory, staff lounge, visitor waiting room, on-call suite, conference rooms, and offices), and the universal support services (infection prevention, finishings and flooring, staff communications, signage and wayfinding, security, and fire and safety) work best when fully interwoven. This coordination helps establish efficient and safe patient throughput and care and fosters physical and social cohesiveness within the ICU. A balanced approach to centralized and decentralized monitoring and logistics also offers great flexibility. Synchronization of the universal support services in the ICU with the hospital's existing systems maintains unity of purpose and continuity across the enterprise and avoids unnecessary duplication of efforts. Copyright © 2014 The American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Frost, Steven A; Alexandrou, Evan; Bogdanovski, Tony; Salamonson, Yenna; Parr, Michael J; Hillman, Ken M
Unplanned admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) is associated with high mortality, having the highest incidence among patients who are emergency admissions to the hospital. This study was designed to identify factors associated with unplanned ICU admission in emergency admissions to hospital and develop an absolute risk tool to individualise the risk of an event during a hospital stay. Emergency department (ED) and in-patient hospital data from a large teaching hospital of consecutive admissions from 1 January 1997 to 31 December 2007 aged over 14 years was included in this study. Patient data extracted from 126826 emergency presentations admitted as in-patients consisted of demographic and clinical variables. During an 11-year period 1582 incident unplanned ICU admissions occurred. Predictors of unplanned ICU admission included older age, being male, having a higher acuity triage category and a history of co-morbid conditions. Emergency department diagnostic groups associated with higher incidence of unplanned ICU admission included: sepsis, acute renal failure, lymphatic-hematopoietic tissue neoplasms, pneumonia, chronic-airways disease and bowel obstruction. The final model used to develop the nomogram had an ROC curve AUC of 0.7. This study identified factors associated with unplanned ICU admission and developed a nomogram to individualise risk prior to a patient being transferred from the ED. This nomogram provides clinicians the opportunity prior to transfer from the ED, to either (1) review the appropriateness of the ward level of planned transfer or (2) flag patients for follow-up on the general ward to assess for deterioration.
Chant, Clarence; Wilson, Gail; Friedrich, Jan O
Introduction Anemia among the critically ill has been described in patients with short to medium length of stay (LOS) in the intensive care unit (ICU), but it has not been described in long-stay ICU patients. This study was performed to characterize anemia, transfusion, and phlebotomy practices in patients with prolonged ICU LOS. Methods We conducted a retrospective chart review of consecutive patients admitted to a medical-surgical ICU in a tertiary care university hospital over three years; patients included had a continuous LOS in the ICU of 30 days or longer. Information on transfusion, phlebotomy, and outcomes were collected daily from days 22 to 112 of the ICU stay. Results A total of 155 patients were enrolled. The mean age, admission Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, and median ICU LOS were 62.3 ± 16.3 years, 23 ± 8, and 49 days (interquartile range 36–70 days), respectively. Mean hemoglobin remained stable at 9.4 ± 1.4 g/dl from day 7 onward. Mean daily phlebotomy volume was 13.3 ± 7.3 ml, and 62% of patients received a mean of 3.4 ± 5.3 units of packed red blood cells at a mean hemoglobin trigger of 7.7 ± 0.9 g/dl after day 21. Transfused patients had significantly greater acuity of illness, phlebotomy volumes, ICU LOS and mortality, and had a lower hemoglobin than did those who were not transfused. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified the following as independently associated with the likelihood of requiring transfusion in nonbleeding patients: baseline hemoglobin, daily phlebotomy volume, ICU LOS, and erythropoietin therapy (used almost exclusively in dialysis dependent renal failure in this cohort of patients). Small increases in average phlebotomy (3.5 ml/day, 95% confidence interval 2.4–6.8 ml/day) were associated with a doubling in the odds of being transfused after day 21. Conclusion Anemia, phlebotomy, and transfusions, despite low hemoglobin triggers, are common in ICU patients long after admission
Ewens, Beverley A; Hendricks, Joyce M; Sundin, Deborah
The aim of this study was to investigate stories of recovery through the lens of intensive care unit (ICU) survivors. Survival from ICUs is increasing, as are associated physical and psychological complications. Despite the significant impact on survivors, there is inadequate support provision in Australia and world-wide for this population. An interpretive biographical approach of intensive care survivors' experiences of recovery. Data were collected during 2014-2015 from diaries, face to face interviews, memos and field notes. Six participants diarized for 3 months commencing 2 months after hospital discharge. At 5 months, participants were interviewed about the content of their diaries and symbols and signifiers in them to create a shared meaning. Analysis of diaries and interviews were undertaken using two frameworks to identify themes throughout participants' stories and provides a unique portrait of recovery through their individual lens. Participants considered their lives had irreparably changed and yet felt unsupported by a healthcare system that had "saved" them. This view through their lens identified turmoil, which existed between their surface and inner worlds as they struggled to conform to what recovery "should be". The novel biographical methods provided a safe and creative way to reveal survivors' inner thoughts and feelings. Participants' considered creating their stories supported their recovery process and in particular enabled them to reflect on their progress. Findings from this study may lead to increased awareness among health care providers about problems survivors face and improved support services more broadly, based on frameworks appropriate for this population. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Petrinec, Amy B; Mazanec, Polly M; Burant, Christopher J; Hoffer, Alan; Daly, Barbara J
To assess the coping strategies used by family decision makers of adult critical care patients during and after the critical care experience and the relationship of coping strategies to posttraumatic stress symptoms experienced 60 days after hospitalization. A single-group descriptive longitudinal correlational study. Medical, surgical, and neurological ICUs in a large tertiary care university hospital. Consecutive family decision makers of adult critical care patients from August 2012 to November 2013. Study inclusion occurred after the patient's fifth day in the ICU. None. Family decision makers of incapacitated adult ICU patients completed the Brief COPE instrument assessing coping strategy use 5 days after ICU admission and 30 days after hospital discharge or death of the patient and completed the Impact of Event Scale-Revised assessing posttraumatic stress symptoms 60 days after hospital discharge. Seventy-seven family decision makers of the eligible 176 completed all data collection time points of this study. The use of problem-focused (p=0.01) and emotion-focused (p<0.01) coping decreased over time while avoidant coping (p=0.20) use remained stable. Coping strategies 30 days after hospitalization (R2=0.50, p<0.001) were better predictors of later posttraumatic stress symptoms than coping strategies 5 days after ICU admission (R2=0.30, p=0.001) controlling for patient and decision-maker characteristics. The role of decision maker for a parent and patient death were the only noncoping predictors of posttraumatic stress symptoms. Avoidant coping use 30 days after hospitalization mediated the relationship between patient death and later posttraumatic stress symptom severity. Coping strategy use is a significant predictor of posttraumatic stress symptom severity 60 days after hospitalization in family decision makers of ICU patients.
Voga, Gorazd; Gabršček-Parežnik, Lucija
The aim of this retrospective study was to analyze differences in the initial hemodynamic assessment and its impact on the treatment in patients aged 80 years or older compared to younger patients during the first 6 h after admission to the medical intensive care unit (ICU). We analyzed 615 consecutive patients admitted to the medical ICU of which 124 (20%) were aged 80 years or more. The older group had a significantly higher acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II) score, an overall mortality in the ICU and a presence of pre-existing cardiac disease. Both groups did not differ in the presence of shock and shock types on admission. In 57% of older and in 56% of younger patients, transthoracic echocardiography was performed with a higher therapeutic impact in the older patients. Transesophageal echocardiography was performed in 3% of the patients in both groups for specific diagnostic problems. Early reassessment with transthoracic echocardiography was necessary in 5% of the older and in 6% of the younger patients and resulted in a change of the treatment in one third of the patients. Continuous invasive hemodynamic monitoring was used in 11% of the older and in 10% of the younger patients and resulted in a therapeutic change in 71% of the older and in 64% of the younger patients. Patients aged 80 years or older represent 20% of all admissions to the medical ICU. Once admitted the older patients were similarly hemodynamically assessed as the younger ones with a similar impact on the treatment.
Lasocki, Sigismond; Chudeau, Nicolas; Papet, Thibaut; Tartiere, Deborah; Roquilly, Antoine; Carlier, Laurence; Mimoz, Olivier; Seguin, Philippe; Malledant, Yannick; Asehnoune, Karim; Hamel, Jean François
Prevalence of iron deficiency (ID) at intensive care (ICU) admission is around 25 to 40%. Blood losses are important during ICU stay, leading to iron losses, but prevalence of ID at ICU discharge is unknown. ID has been associated with fatigue and muscular weakness, and may thus impair post-ICU rehabilitation. This study assessed ID prevalence at ICU discharge, day 28 (D28) and six months (M6) after and its relation with fatigue. We conducted this prospective, multicenter observational study at four University hospitals ICUs. Anemic (hemoglobin (Hb) less than 13 g/dL in male and less than 12 g/dL in female) critically ill adult patients hospitalized for at least five days had an iron profile taken at discharge, D28 and M6. ID was defined as ferritin less than 100 ng/L or less than 300 ng/L together with a transferrin saturation less than 20%. Fatigue was assessed by numerical scale and the Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory-20 questionnaire at D28 and M6 and muscular weakness by a hand grip test at ICU discharge. Among 107 patients (men 77%, median (IQR) age 63 (48 to 73) years) who had a complete iron profile at ICU discharge, 9 (8.4%) had ID. At ICU discharge, their hemoglobin concentration (9.5 (87.7 to 10.3) versus 10.2 (92.2 to 11.7) g/dL, P =0.09), hand grip strength (52.5 (30 to 65) versus 49.5 (15.5 to 67.7)% of normal value, P =0.61) and visual analog scale fatigue scale (57 (40 to 80) versus 60 (47.5 to 80)/100, P =0.82) were not different from non-ID patients. At D28 (n =80 patients) and M6 (n =78 patients), ID prevalence increased (to 25 and 35% respectively) while anemia prevalence decreased (from 100% to 80 and 25% respectively, P <0.0001). ID was associated with increased fatigue at D28, after adjustment for main confounding factors, including anemia (regression coefficient (95%CI), 3.19 (0.74 to 5.64), P =0.012). At M6, this association disappeared. The prevalence of ID increases from 8% at discharge to 35% six months after prolonged ICU stay (more
Mahendra, M; Jayaraj, B S; Lokesh, K S; Chaya, S K; Veerapaneni, Vivek Vardhan; Limaye, Sneha; Dhar, Raja; Swarnakar, Rajesh; Ambalkar, Shrikant; Mahesh, P A
Respiratory infections account for significant morbidity, mortality and expenses to patients getting admitted to ICU. Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide concern in ICU, including India. It is important to know the antibiotic prescribing pattern in ICU, organisms and its resistance pattern as there is sparse data on Indian ICUs. We conducted a prospective study from August 2015 to February 2016. All patients getting admitted to RICU with respiratory infection who were treated with antibiotics were included into study. Demographic details, comorbidities, Clinco-pathological score (CPI) on day1 and 2 of admission, duration of ICU admission, number of antibiotics used, antibiotic prescription, antimicrobial resistance pattern of patients were collected using APRISE questionnaire. During study period 352 patients were screened and 303 patients were included into study. Mean age was 56.05±16.37 and 190 (62.70%) were men. Most common diagnosis was Pneumonia (66%). Piperacillin-tazobactam was most common empirical antibiotic used. We found 60% resistance to piperacillin-tazobactam. Acinetobacter baumanii was the most common organism isolated (29.2%) and was highly resistant to Carbapenem (60%). Klebsiella pneumoniae was resistant to Amikacin (45%), piperacillin (55%) and Ceftazidime (50%). Piperacillin-tazobactam was the most common antibiotic prescribed to patients with respiratory infection admitted to ICU. More than half of patients (60%) had resistance to the empirical antibiotic used in our ICU, highlighting the need for antibiogram for each ICU. Thirty six percent of patient had prior antibiotic use and had mainly gram negative organisms with high resistance to commonly used antibiotics.
Mahendra, M; Jayaraj, BS; Lokesh, KS; Chaya, SK; Veerapaneni, Vivek Vardhan; Limaye, Sneha; Dhar, Raja; Swarnakar, Rajesh; Ambalkar, Shrikant; Mahesh, PA
Aim of Study: Respiratory infections account for significant morbidity, mortality and expenses to patients getting admitted to ICU. Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide concern in ICU, including India. It is important to know the antibiotic prescribing pattern in ICU, organisms and its resistance pattern as there is sparse data on Indian ICUs. Materials and Methods: We conducted a prospective study from August 2015 to February 2016. All patients getting admitted to RICU with respiratory infection who were treated with antibiotics were included into study. Demographic details, comorbidities, Clinco-pathological score (CPI) on day1 and 2 of admission, duration of ICU admission, number of antibiotics used, antibiotic prescription, antimicrobial resistance pattern of patients were collected using APRISE questionnaire. Results: During study period 352 patients were screened and 303 patients were included into study. Mean age was 56.05±16.37 and 190 (62.70%) were men. Most common diagnosis was Pneumonia (66%). Piperacillin-tazobactam was most common empirical antibiotic used. We found 60% resistance to piperacillin-tazobactam. Acinetobacter baumanii was the most common organism isolated (29.2%) and was highly resistant to Carbapenem (60%). Klebsiella pneumoniae was resistant to Amikacin (45%), piperacillin (55%) and Ceftazidime (50%). Conclusion: Piperacillin-tazobactam was the most common antibiotic prescribed to patients with respiratory infection admitted to ICU. More than half of patients (60%) had resistance to the empirical antibiotic used in our ICU, highlighting the need for antibiogram for each ICU. Thirty six percent of patient had prior antibiotic use and had mainly gram negative organisms with high resistance to commonly used antibiotics. PMID:29743760
Nickel, Katelin B; Marsden-Haug, Nicola; Lofy, Kathryn H; Turnberg, Wayne L; Rietberg, Krista; Lloyd, Jennifer K; Marfin, Anthony A
This study evaluated risk factors for intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death among people hospitalized with 2009 pandemic influenza A (pH1N1) virus infection. We based analyses on data collected in Washington State from April 27 to September 18, 2009, on deceased or hospitalized people with laboratory-confirmed pH1N1 infection reported by health-care providers and hospitals as part of enhanced public health surveillance. We used bivariate analyses and multivariable logistic regression to identify risk factors associated with ICU admission or death due to pH1N1. We identified 123 patients admitted to the hospital but not an ICU and 61 patients who were admitted to an ICU or died. Independent of high-risk medical conditions, both older age and delayed time to hospital admission were identified as risk factors for ICU admission or death due to pH1N1. Specifically, the odds of ICU admission or death were 4.44 times greater among adults aged 18-49 years (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.97, 10.02) and 5.93 times greater among adults aged 50-64 years (95% CI 2.24, 15.65) compared with pediatric patients < 18 years of age. Likewise, hospitalized cases admitted more than two days after illness onset had 2.17 times higher odds of ICU admission or death than those admitted within two days of illness onset (95% CI 1.10, 4.25). Although certain medical conditions clearly influence the need for hospitalization among people infected with pH1N1 virus, older age and delayed time to admission each played an independent role in the progression to ICU admission or death among hospitalized patients.
Henning, Daniel J.; Oedorf, Kimie; Day, Danielle E.; Redfield, Colby S.; Huguenel, Colin J.; Roberts, Jonathan C.; Sanchez, Leon D.; Wolfe, Richard E.; Shapiro, Nathan I.
Introduction Strategies to identify high-risk emergency department (ED) patients often use markedly abnormal vital signs and serum lactate levels. Risk stratifying such patients without using the presence of shock is challenging. The objective of the study is to identify independent predictors of in-hospital adverse outcomes in ED patients with abnormal vital signs or lactate levels, but who are not in shock. Methods We performed a prospective observational study of patients with abnormal vital signs or lactate level defined as heart rate ≥130 beats/min, respiratory rate ≥24 breaths/min, shock index ≥1, systolic blood pressure <90mm/Hg, or lactate ≥4mmole/L. We excluded patients with isolated atrial tachycardia, seizure, intoxication, psychiatric agitation, or tachycardia due to pain (ie: extremity fracture). The primary outcome was deterioration, defined as development of acute renal failure (creatinine 2× baseline), non-elective intubation, vasopressor requirement, or mortality. Independent predictors of deterioration after hospitalization were determined using logistic regression. Results Of 1,152 consecutive patients identified with abnormal vital signs or lactate level, 620 were excluded, leaving 532 for analysis. Of these, 53/532 (9.9±2.5%) deteriorated after hospital admission. Independent predictors of in-hospital deterioration were: lactate >4.0mmol/L (OR 5.1, 95% CI [2.1–12.2]), age ≥80 yrs (OR 1.9, CI [1.0–3.7]), bicarbonate <21mEq/L (OR 2.5, CI [1.3–4.9]), and initial HR≥130 (OR 3.1, CI [1.5–6.1]). Conclusion Patients exhibiting abnormal vital signs or elevated lactate levels without shock had significant rates of deterioration after hospitalization. ED clinical data predicted patients who suffered adverse outcomes with reasonable reliability. PMID:26759655
Bagnato, Sergio; Boccagni, Cristina; Sant'Angelo, Antonino; Prestandrea, Caterina; Virgilio, Vittorio; Galardi, Giuseppe
Seizures affect about a quarter of patients with disorders of consciousness (DOC) after a coma. We investigated whether the presence of epileptiform abnormalities (EAs) in the electroencephalogram (EEG) of patients with DOC may predict the occurrence of seizures. Moreover, we evaluated whether EAs have a prognostic role in these patients. This was a retrospective single-center cohort study of patients hospitalized between January 2005 and December 2014 in a rehabilitation department (mean time from acute brain injury: 46.1 days). We analyzed 30-minute EEGs at admittance for 112 patients with unresponsive wakefulness syndrome (UWS) or in a minimally conscious state (MCS), then compared occurrence of seizures over the following three months across patients with absent, unilateral, and bilateral EAs (generalized or bilateral independent). Outcomes at three months were assessed in the same groups using the Coma Recovery Scale Revised. Epileptiform abnormalities were observed in 38 patients (33.9%). Of these, 25 were unilateral, and 13 were bilateral. Seizures occurred in 84.6% of patients with bilateral EAs, which was significantly higher than in patients without EAs (10.8%, p<0.001) or with unilateral EAs (24%, p=0.001). The presence of EAs was not related to etiology or different DOC and did not significantly affect outcomes at three months. Patients with EAs at admission to a rehabilitation department have an increased risk of seizures. Specifically, most patients with bilateral EAs had seizures within the following 3 months. Evaluation of EAs in EEGs of patients with DOC may give valuable information in the management of antiepileptic drug treatment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Chan, Paul S.; Cram, Peter
Background: Remote coverage of ICUs is increasing, but staff acceptance of this new technology is incompletely characterized. We conducted a systematic review to summarize existing research on acceptance of tele-ICU coverage among ICU staff. Methods: We searched for published articles pertaining to critical care telemedicine systems (aka, tele-ICU) between January 1950 and March 2010 using PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Global Health, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library and abstracts and presentations delivered at national conferences. Studies were included if they provided original qualitative or quantitative data on staff perceptions of tele-ICU coverage. Studies were imported into content analysis software and coded by tele-ICU configuration, methodology, participants, and findings (eg, positive and negative staff evaluations). Results: Review of 3,086 citations yielded 23 eligible studies. Findings were grouped into four categories of staff evaluation: overall acceptance level of tele-ICU coverage (measured in 70% of studies), impact on patient care (measured in 96%), impact on staff (measured in 100%), and organizational impact (measured in 48%). Overall acceptance was high, despite initial ambivalence. Favorable impact on patient care was perceived by > 82% of participants. Staff impact referenced enhanced collaboration, autonomy, and training, although scrutiny, malfunctions, and contradictory advice were cited as potential barriers. Staff perceived the organizational impact to vary. An important limitation of available studies was a lack of rigorous methodology and validated survey instruments in many studies. Conclusions: Initial reports suggest high levels of staff acceptance of tele-ICU coverage, but more rigorous methodologic study is required. PMID:21051386
Saha, S K; Shaha, K C; Haque, M F; Khatun, S; Akhter, S M; Akhter, H
The aim of the present study was to investigate the current trends of using antimicrobial drugs in the ICU at a tertiary level teaching hospital in Mymensingh. The study of prescribing patterns seeks to monitor, evaluate and suggest modifications in clinicians prescribing habits so as to make medical care rational. It was an observational type of descriptive study, conducted in the Mymensingh medical college hospital, Mymensingh, during the study period of June 2016 to September 2016.The study was approved by the institutional ethical committee. Most patients in the ICU belonged to the older age group >60 years. Male patients were more than the female patients in ICU. Average duration of stay in ICU was 4.35 days. Admissions in ICU were common due to respiratory system related diseases and the present study showed that 31.68% of the reported cases belong to the respiratory system. Average number of drugs per prescription was 6.46. Average number of anti-microbial drugs per prescription was 1.38. Cephalosporin group and individually ceftriaxone was the most frequently prescribed antimicrobial group and agent respectively in the ICU. Most commonly used antimicrobial combination was Cephalosporin and Metronidazole (43.33%) followed by Carbapenem (Meropenem) and Metronidazole (13.33%). Most antimicrobial agents were prescribed without bacteriological culture and sensivity testing evidence. There is a need for motivating the physicians to prescribe antimicrobial agents with supportive bacteriological evidences.
Huang, Minxuan; Chan, Kitty S.; Zanni, Jennifer M.; Parry, Selina M.; Neto, Saint-Clair G. B.; Neto, Jose A. A.; da Silva, Vinicius Z. M.; Kho, Michelle E.; Needham, Dale M.
Objective To evaluate the internal consistency, validity, responsiveness, and minimal important difference of the Functional Status Score for the Intensive Care Unit (FSS-ICU), a physical function measure designed for the intensive care unit (ICU). Design Clinimetric analysis. Settings Five international data sets from the United States, Australia, and Brazil. Patients 819 ICU patients. Intervention None. Measurements and Main Results Clinimetric analyses were initially conducted separately for each data source and time point to examine generalizability of findings, with pooled analyses performed thereafter to increase power of analyses. The FSS-ICU demonstrated good to excellent internal consistency. There was good convergent and discriminant validity, with significant and positive correlations (r = 0.30 to 0.95) between FSS-ICU and other physical function measures, and generally weaker correlations with non-physical measures (|r| = 0.01 to 0.70). Known group validity was demonstrated by significantly higher FSS-ICU scores among patients without ICU-acquired weakness (Medical Research Council sumscore ≥48 versus <48) and with hospital discharge to home (versus healthcare facility). FSS-ICU at ICU discharge predicted post-ICU hospital length of stay and discharge location. Responsiveness was supported via increased FSS-ICU scores with improvements in muscle strength. Distribution-based methods indicated a minimal important difference of 2.0 to 5.0. Conclusions The FSS-ICU has good internal consistency and is a valid and responsive measure of physical function for ICU patients. The estimated minimal important difference can be used in sample size calculations and in interpreting studies comparing the physical function of groups of ICU patients. PMID:27488220
Lucido, Jerome A.
When one thinks of seminal publications in college admission, the first piece that comes to mind is B. Alden Thresher's "College Admissions in the Public Interest" (1966). Thresher's work, relevant to this day, is credited with being the foundational document of the admission profession. McDonough and Robertson's 1995 study, commissioned by NACAC,…
Chen, Pei-Chi; Chua, Su-Kiat; Hung, Huei-Fong; Huang, Chung-Yen; Lin, Chiu-Mei; Lai, Shih-Ming; Chen, Yen-Ling; Cheng, Jun-Jack; Chiu, Chiung-Zuan; Lee, Shih-Huang; Lo, Huey-Ming; Shyu, Kou-Gi
Admission hyperglycemia is associated with poor outcome in patients with myocardial infarction. The present study evaluated the relationship between admission glucose level and other clinical variables in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The 959 consecutive STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI were divided into five groups based on admission glucose levels of <100, 100-139, 140-189, 190-249 and ≥250 mg/dL. Their short- and long-term outcomes were compared. Higher admission glucose levels were associated with significantly higher in-hospital morbidity and mortality, the overall mortality rate at follow up, and the incidence of reinfarction or heart failure requiring admission or leading to mortality at follow up. The odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for in-hospital morbidity, in-hospital mortality, mortality at follow up and re-infarction or heart failure or mortality at follow up of patients with admission glucose levels ≥190 mg/dL, compared with those with admission glucose levels <190 mg/dL, were 2.12 (1.3-3.4, P = 0.001), 2.74 (1.4-5.5, P = 0.004), 2.52 (1.2-5.1, P = 0.01) and 1.70 (1.03-2.8, P = 0.04), respectively. Previously non-diabetic patients with admission glucose levels ≥250 mg/dL had significantly higher in-hospital morbidity or mortality (44 vs 70%, P = 0.03). Known diabetic patients had higher rates of reinfarction, heart failure or mortality at follow up in the 100-139 mg/dL (8 vs 27%, P = 0.04) and 140-189 mg/dL (11 vs 26%, P = 0.02) groups. Admission hyperglycemia, especially at glucose levels ≥190 mg/dL, is a predictor of poor prognosis in STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI.
Background HIV positive patients are at risk of infectious and non-infectious complications that may necessitate intensive care unit (ICU) admission. While the characteristics of patients requiring ICU admission have been described previously, these studies did not include information on the denominator population from which these cases arose. Methods We conducted an observational cohort study of ICU admissions among 2751 HIV positive patients attending King’s College Hospital, South London, UK. Poisson regression models were used to identify factors associated with ICU admission. Results The overall incidence rate of ICU admission was 1.0 [95% CI 0.8, 1.2] per 100 person-years of follow up, and particularly high early (during the first 3 months) following HIV diagnosis (12.4 [8.7, 17.3] per 100 person-years compared to 0.37 [0.27, 0.50] per 100 person-years thereafter; incidence rate ratio 33.5 [23.4, 48.1], p < 0.001). In time-updated analyses, AIDS and current CD4 cell counts of less than 200 cells/mm3 were associated with an increased incidence of ICU admission while receipt of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) was associated with a reduced incidence of ICU admission. Late HIV diagnosis (initial CD4 cell count <350 or AIDS within 3 months of HIV diagnosis) applied to 81% of patients who were first diagnosed HIV positive during the study period and who required ICU admission. Late HIV diagnosis was significantly associated with ICU admission in the first 3 months following HIV diagnosis (adjusted incidence rate ratio 8.72, 95% CI 2.76, 27.5). Conclusions Late HIV diagnosis was a major risk factor for early ICU admission in our cohort. Earlier HIV diagnosis allowing cART initiation at CD4 cell counts of 350 cells/mm3 is likely to have a significant impact on the need for ICU care. PMID:23331544
Abella, A; Enciso, V; Torrejón, I; Hermosa, C; Mozo, T; Molina, R; Janeiro, D; Díaz, M; Homez, M; Gordo, F; Salinas, I
To determine whether extension to holidays and weekends of the protocol for the early proactive detection of severity in hospital ("ICU without walls" project) results in decreased mortality among patients admitted to the ICU during those days. A quasi-experimental before-after study was carried out. A level 2 hospital with 210 beds and a polyvalent ICU with 8 beds. The control group involved no "ICU without walls" activity on holidays or weekends and included those patients admitted to the ICU on those days between 1 January 2010 and 30 April 2013. The intervention group in turn extended the "ICU without walls" activity to holidays and weekends, and included those patients admitted on those days between 1 May 2013 and 31 October 2014. Patients arriving from the operating room after scheduled surgery were excluded. An analysis was made of the demographic variables (age, gender), origin (emergency room, hospital ward, operating room), type of patient (medical, surgical), reason for admission, comorbidities and SAPS 3 score as a measure of severity upon admission, stay in the ICU and in hospital, and mortality in the ICU and in hospital. A total of 389 and 161 patients were included in the control group and intervention group, respectively. There were no differences between the 2 groups except as regards cardiovascular comorbidity (49% in the control group versus 33% in the intervention group; P<.001), severity upon admission (median SAPS 3 score 52 [percentiles 25-75: 42-63) in the control group versus 48 [percentiles 25-75: 40-56] in the intervention group; P=.008) and mortality in the ICU (11% in the control group [95% CI 8-14] versus 3% [95% CI 1-7] in the intervention group; P=.003). In the multivariate analysis, the only 2 factors associated to mortality in the ICU were the SAPS 3 score (OR 1.08; 95% CI 1.06-1.11) and inclusion in the intervention group (OR 0.33; 95% CI 0.12-0.89). Extension of the "ICU without walls" activity to holidays and weekends results
Scalea, Tom; Sperry, Jason; Coimbra, Raul; Vercruysse, Gary; Jurkovich, Gregory J; Nirula, Ram
Introduction Patients with non-traumatic acute intracranial pathology benefit from neurointensivist care. Similarly, trauma patients with and without TBI fare better when treated by a dedicated trauma team. No study has yet evaluated the role of specialized neurocritical (NICU) and trauma intensive care units (TICU) in the management of TBI patients, and it remains unclear which TBI patients are best served in NICU, TICU, or general (Med/Surg) ICU. Methods This study is a secondary analysis of The American Association for the Surgery of Trauma Multi-Institutional Trials Committee (AAST-MITC) decompressive craniectomy study. Twelve Level 1 trauma centers provided clinical data and head CT scans of patients with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) ≤13 and CT evidence of TBI. Non-ICU admissions were excluded. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to measure the association between ICU-type and survival and calculate the probability of death for increasing ISS. Polytrauma patients (ISS > 15) with TBI and isolated TBI patients (other AIS < 3) were analyzed separately. Results There were 3641 patients with CT evidence of TBI with 2951 admitted to an ICU. Prior to adjustment, patient demographics, injury severity, and survival differed significantly by unit type. After adjustment, unit-type, age and ISS remained independent predictors of death. Unit-type modified the effect of ISS on mortality. TBI-polytrauma patients admitted to a TICU had improved survival across increasing ISS (Fig1). Survival for isolated TBI patients was similar between TICU and NICU. Med/Surg ICU carried the greatest probability of death. Conclusion Polytrauma patients with TBI have lower mortality risk when admitted to a Trauma ICU. This survival benefit increases with increasing injury severity. Isolated TBI patients have similar mortality risk when admitted to a Neuro ICU compared to a Trauma ICU. Med/Surg ICU admission carries the highest mortality risk. PMID:28225527
Reader, Tom W; Flin, Rhona; Mearns, Kathryn; Cuthbertson, Brian H
The ability of medical teams to develop and maintain team situation awareness (team SA) is crucial for patient safety. Limited research has investigated team SA within clinical environments. This study reports the development of a method for investigating team SA during the intensive care unit (ICU) round and describes the results. In one ICU, a sample of doctors and nurses (n = 44, who combined to form 37 different teams) were observed during 34 morning ward rounds. Following the clinical review of each patient (n = 105), team members individually recorded their anticipations for expected patient developments over 48 h. Patient-outcome data were collected to determine the accuracy of anticipations. Anticipations were compared among ICU team members, and the degree of consensus was used as a proxy measure of team SA. Self-report and observational data measured team-member involvement and communication during patient reviews. For over half of 105 patients, ICU team members formed conflicting anticipations as to whether patients would deteriorate within 48 h. Senior doctors were most accurate in their predictions. Exploratory analysis found that team processes did not predict team SA. However, the involvement of junior and senior trainee doctors in the patient decision-making process predicted the extent to which those team members formed team SA with senior doctors. A new method for measuring team SA during the ICU round was successfully employed. A number of areas for future research were identified, including refinement of the situation awareness and teamwork measures.
Foaud, Hala Mohamed Amin; Labib, John Rene; Metwally, Hala Gabr; El-Twab, Khaled Mohamed Abd
Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children. This study aimed at evaluation of the D-dimer blood levels as a new marker to predict prognosis and outcome of traumatic brain injuries among children. This case control study was conducted at the Paediatric Intensive Care Unit (ICU), Alharm Hospital in Giza, Egypt during 2012-2013, on 46 Paediatric cases admitted to ICU with head injury and 20 normal age-matched controls. Clinical data and venous blood samples were prospectively collected at 1(st), 3(rd) and 14(th) day of admission, in addition to examination finding as Glasgow coma scale (GCS), cranial brain computed tomography (CT), routine laboratory investigations (CBC, CRP, SGOT, SGPT, urea, creatinine, random blood glucose, Na, K and arterial blood gases) plasma D-dimer, INR, PT, aPTT and PC. Data analysis was carried out accordingly and ROC curve was performed to explore the discriminating ability of D-dimer through estimation of its accuracy in differentiating temporal survivorship of those with TBI. Cases were classified according to outcome into survivors and non-survivors. Significant difference was observed between cases and controls and between survivors and non-survivors during 1(st), 3(rd) and 14(th) day of the follow up including GCS, blood levels of D-dimer, PT and aPTT. ROC curve analysis for D-dimer showed decline in both sensitivity from 89.5% to 73.7% and specificity from 100% to 81.5% along the study days respectively. D-dimer time measurements showed significant decline among survivors from 4.2 to 0.7, while in the non survivor group this decline was much higher from 27.9 to 1.4. Low plasma D-dimer suggests the absence of brain injury, and good prognosis.
Morgan, David J R; Ho, Kwok Ming; Ong, Yang Jian; Kolybaba, Marlene L
The 'weekend' effect is a controversial theory that links reduced staffing levels, staffing seniority and supportive services at hospitals during 'out-of-office hours' time periods with worsening patient outcomes. It is uncertain whether admitting elective surgery patients to intensive care units (ICU) during 'out-of-office hours' time periods mitigates this affect through higher staffing ratios and seniority. Over a 3-year period in Western Australia's largest private hospital, this retrospective nested-cohort study compared all elective surgical patients admitted to the ICU based on whether their admission occurred 'in-office hours' (Monday-Friday 08.00-18.00 hours) or 'out-of-office hours' (all other times). The main outcomes were surgical complications using the Dindo-Clavien classification and length-of-stay data. Of the total 4363 ICU admissions, 3584 ICU admissions were planned following elective surgery resulting in 2515 (70.2%) in-office hours and 1069 (29.8%) out-of-office hours elective ICU surgical admissions. Out-of-office hours ICU admissions following elective surgery were associated with an increased risk of infection (P = 0.029), blood transfusion (P = 0.020), total parental nutrition (P < 0.001) and unplanned re-operations (P = 0.027). Out-of-office hours ICU admissions were also associated with an increased hospital length-of-stay, with (1.74 days longer, P < 0.0001) and without (2.8 days longer, P < 0.001) adjusting for severity of acute and chronic illnesses and inter-hospital transfers (12.3 versus 9.8%, P = 0.024). Hospital mortality (1.2 versus 0.7%, P = 0.111) was low and similar between both groups. Out-of-office hours ICU admissions following elective surgery is common and associated with serious post-operative complications culminating in significantly longer hospital length-of-stays and greater transfers with important patient and health economic implications. © 2017 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.
Merlani, P; Chenaud, C; Mariotti, N; Ricou, B
Medical developments have allowed the management of patients aged over 70 years with severe abdominal pathologies requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission. These patients require enhanced life support and present a high ICU mortality. We investigated the outcome and quality of life (QOL) of elderly patients 2 years after their ICU stay for abdominal pathologies. Patients aged 70 years or over with abdominal pathologies, admitted to our ICU over a period of 2 years, were included. Two years following their ICU stay, a letter informed the patients about the present study. Consent to participate was obtained by telephone. QOL was assessed by the Euro-QOL and Short Form-36 questionnaires. Other patient-centered outcomes were evaluated. Overall, 2780 patients were admitted to the ICU during the study period; 141 (5%) patients were eligible; 112 of the 141 (79%) survived their ICU stay, 95 (67%) survived their hospital stay and 52 (37%) were alive 2 years after their ICU stay; 36 of the 52 survivors (69%) answered the questionnaire. Their QOL 2 years after their ICU stay was decreased in comparison with an age-matched population. Eighty-one per cent of patients lived at home and 57% were totally independent. They perceived their ICU stay as positive and 75% stated that they would agree to go through intensive care again. Factors associated with 2-year survival were the absence of co-morbidity, absence of malignancy and a lower Simplified Acute Physiology II score on ICU admission. A high mortality rate and a decrease in QOL were observed in elderly patients with severe abdominal pathologies. Nonetheless, these patients were able to adapt well to their physical disabilities.
Halpern, Neil A
This third and final installment of this series on innovative designs for the smart ICU addresses the steps involved in conceptualizing, actualizing, using, and maintaining the advanced ICU informatics infrastructure and systems. The smart ICU comprehensively and electronically integrates the patient in the ICU with all aspects of care, displays data in a variety of formats, converts data to actionable information, uses data proactively to enhance patient safety, and monitors the ICU environment to facilitate patient care and ICU management. The keys to success in this complex informatics design process include an understanding of advanced informatics concepts, sophisticated planning, installation of a robust infrastructure capable of both connectivity and interoperability, and implementation of middleware solutions that provide value. Although new technologies commonly appear compelling, they are also complicated and challenging to incorporate within existing or evolving hospital informatics systems. Therefore, careful analysis, deliberate testing, and a phased approach to the implementation of innovative technologies are necessary to achieve the multilevel solutions of the smart ICU.
Avery, Daniel M., Jr.; Wheat, John R.; Leeper, James D.; McKnight, Jerry T.; Ballard, Brent G.; Chen, Jia
Purpose: The Rural Medical Scholars Program (RMSP) was created to increase production of rural family physicians in Alabama. Literature review reveals reasons medical students choose careers in family medicine, and these reasons can be categorized into domains that medical schools can address through admission, curriculum, and structural…
Vallabhajosyula, Saraschandra; Sakhuja, Ankit; Geske, Jeffrey B; Kumar, Mukesh; Poterucha, Joseph T; Kashyap, Rahul; Kashani, Kianoush; Jaffe, Allan S; Jentzer, Jacob C
Troponin-T elevation is seen commonly in sepsis and septic shock patients admitted to the intensive care unit. We sought to evaluate the role of admission and serial troponin-T testing in the prognostication of these patients. This was a retrospective cohort study from 2007 to 2014 on patients admitted to the intensive care units at the Mayo Clinic with severe sepsis and septic shock. Elevated admission troponin-T and significant delta troponin-T were defined as ≥0.01 ng/mL and ≥0.03 ng/mL in 3 hours, respectively. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included 1-year mortality and lengths of stay. During this 8-year period, 944 patients met the inclusion criteria with 845 (90%) having an admission troponin-T ≥0.01 ng/mL. Serial troponin-T values were available in 732 (78%) patients. Elevated admission troponin-T was associated with older age, higher baseline comorbidity, and severity of illness, whereas significant delta troponin-T was associated with higher severity of illness. Admission log 10 troponin-T was associated with unadjusted in-hospital (odds ratio 1.6; P =0.003) and 1-year mortality (odds ratio 1.3; P =0.04), but did not correlate with length of stay. Elevated delta troponin-T and log 10 delta troponin-T were not significantly associated with any of the primary or secondary outcomes. Admission log 10 troponin-T remained an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.4; P =0.04) and 1-year survival (hazard ratio 1.3; P =0.008). In patients with sepsis and septic shock, elevated admission troponin-T was associated with higher short- and long-term mortality. Routine serial troponin-T testing did not add incremental prognostic value in these patients. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.
Lim, So Yeon; Koh, Shin Ok; Jeon, Kyeongman; Na, Sungwon; Lim, Chae-Man; Choi, Won-Il; Lee, Young-Joo; Kim, Seok Chan; Chon, Gyu Rak; Kim, Je Hyeong; Kim, Jae Yeol; Lim, Jaemin; Rhee, Chin Kook; Park, Sunghoon; Kim, Ho Cheol; Lee, Jin Hwa; Lee, Ji Hyun; Park, Jisook; Koh, Younsuck; Suh, Gee Young
To externally validate the simplified acute physiology score 3 (SAPS3) and to customize it for use in Korean intensive care unit (ICU) patients. This is a prospective multicentre cohort study involving 22 ICUs from 15 centres throughout Korea. The study population comprised patients who were consecutively admitted to participating ICUs from 1 July 2010 to 31 January 2011. A total of 4617 patients were enrolled. ICU mortality was 14.3%, and hospital mortality was 20.6%. The patients were randomly assigned into one of two cohorts: a development (n = 2309) or validation (n = 2308) cohort. In the development cohort, the general SAPS3 had good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve = 0.829), but poor calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test H = 123.06, P < 0.001, C = 118.45, P < 0.001). The Australasia SAPS3 did not improve calibration (H = 73.53, P < 0.001, C = 70.52, P < 0.001). Customization was achieved by altering the logit of the original SAPS3 equation. The new equation for Korean ICU patients was validated in the validation cohort, and demonstrated both good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve = 0.835) and good calibration (H = 4.61, P = 0.799, C = 5.67, P = 0.684). General and regional Australasia SAPS3 admission scores showed poor calibration for use in Korean ICU patients, but the prognostic power of the SAPS3 was significantly improved by customization. Prediction models should be customized before being used to predict mortality in different regions of the world. © 2013 The Authors. Respirology © 2013 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.
Vlayen, Annemie; Verelst, Sandra; Bekkering, Geertruida E; Schrooten, Ward; Hellings, Johan; Claes, Neree
Adverse events are unintended patient injuries or complications that arise from health care management resulting in death, disability or prolonged hospital stay. Adverse events that require critical care are a considerable financial burden to the health care system, but also their global impact on patients and society is probably underestimated. The objectives of this systematic review were to synthesize the best available evidence regarding the estimates of the incidence and preventability of adverse events that necessitate intensive care admission, to determine the type and consequences [mortality, length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay and costs] of these adverse events. MEDLINE (from 1966 to present), EMBASE (from 1974 to present) and CENTRAL (version 1-2010) were searched for studies reporting on unplanned admissions on ICUs. Several other sources were searched for additional studies. Only quantitative studies that used chart review for the detection of adverse events requiring intensive care admission were considered for eligibility. For the purposes of this systematic review, ICUs were defined as specialized hospital facilities which provide continuous monitoring and intensive care for acutely ill patients. Studies that were published in the English, Dutch, German, French or Spanish language were eligible for inclusion. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed the methodological quality of the included studies. A total of 27 studies were reviewed. Meta-analysis of the data was not appropriate because of methodological and statistical heterogeneity between studies; therefore, results are presented in a descriptive way. The percentage of surgical and medical adverse events that required ICU admission ranged from 1.1% to 37.2%. ICU readmissions varied from 0% to 18.3%. Preventability of the adverse events varied from 17% to 76.5%. Preventable adverse events are further synthesized by type of event. Consequences of the adverse events included a
Families of patients are not simple visitors to the ICU. They have just been separated from a loved one, often someone they live with, either abruptly or, in nearly half the cases, because a chronic condition has suddenly worsened. They must cope with a serious illness of a loved one, while having to adapt to the unfamiliar and intimidating ICU environment. In many cases, the outcome of the critical illness is uncertain, a situation that causes considerable distress to the relatives. As shown by our research group and others, families exhibit symptoms of anxiety (70%) and depression (35%) in the first few days after admission, as well as symptoms of stress (33%) and difficulty understanding the information delivered by the healthcare staff (50%). Furthermore, relatives of patients who die in the ICU are at risk for psychiatric syndromes such as generalized anxiety, panic attacks, depression, and posttraumatic stress syndrome. In this setting of psychological distress, families are asked to consider sharing in healthcare decisions about their loved one in the ICU. This article aims to foster the debate about the shared decision-making process. We have three objectives: to transcend the overly simplistic position that opposes paternalism and autonomy, to build a view founded only on an evaluation of actual practice and experience in the field, and to keep the focus squarely on the patient. Families want information and communication time from the staff. Nurses and physicians need to understand that families can share in decisions only if the entire ICU staff actively promotes family involvement and, of course, if the family wants to participate in all or part of the decision-making process. PMID:25593753
Hedlund, Jennifer; Wilt, Jeanne M.; Nebel, Kristina L.; Ashford, Susan J.; Sternberg, Robert J.
The Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT) is the most widely used measure of managerial potential in MBA admissions. GMAT scores, although predictive of grades in business school, leave much of the variance in graduate school performance unexplained. The GMAT also produces disparities in test scores between groups, generating the potential for…
Arihan, Okan; Wernly, Bernhard; Lichtenauer, Michael; Franz, Marcus; Kabisch, Bjoern; Muessig, Johanna; Masyuk, Maryna; Lauten, Alexander; Schulze, Paul Christian; Hoppe, Uta C; Kelm, Malte; Jung, Christian
Blood urea nitrogen (BUN) was reported to be associated with mortality in heart failure patients. We aimed to evaluate admission BUN concentration in a heterogeneous critically ill patient collective admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) for prognostic relevance. A total of 4176 medical patients (67±13 years) admitted to a German ICU between 2004 and 2009 were included. Follow-up of patients was performed retrospectively between May 2013 and November 2013. Association of admission BUN and both intra-hospital and long-term mortality were investigated by Cox regression. An optimal cut-off was calculated by means of the Youden-Index. Patients with higher admission BUN concentration were older, clinically sicker and had more pronounced laboratory signs of multi-organ failure including kidney failure. Admission BUN was associated with adverse long-term mortality (HR 1.013; 95%CI 1.012-1.014; p<0.001). An optimal cut-off was calculated at 28 mg/dL which was associated with adverse outcome even after correction for APACHE2 (HR 1.89; 95%CI 1.59-2.26; p<0.001), SAPS2 (HR 1.85; 95%CI 1.55-2.21; p<0.001) and several parameters including creatinine in an integrative model (HR 3.34; 95%CI 2.89-3.86; p<0.001). We matched 614 patients with admission BUN >28 mg/dL to case-controls ≤ 28mg/dL corrected for APACHE2 scores: BUN above 28 mg/dL remained associated with adverse outcome in a paired analysis with the difference being 5.85% (95%CI 1.23-10.47%; p = 0.02). High BUN concentration at admission was robustly associated with adverse outcome in critically ill patients admitted to an ICU, even after correction for co-founders including renal failure. BUN might constitute an independent, easily available and important parameter for risk stratification in the critically ill.
Lichtenauer, Michael; Franz, Marcus; Kabisch, Bjoern; Muessig, Johanna; Masyuk, Maryna; Lauten, Alexander; Schulze, Paul Christian; Hoppe, Uta C.; Kelm, Malte; Jung, Christian
Purpose Blood urea nitrogen (BUN) was reported to be associated with mortality in heart failure patients. We aimed to evaluate admission BUN concentration in a heterogeneous critically ill patient collective admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) for prognostic relevance. Methods A total of 4176 medical patients (67±13 years) admitted to a German ICU between 2004 and 2009 were included. Follow-up of patients was performed retrospectively between May 2013 and November 2013. Association of admission BUN and both intra-hospital and long-term mortality were investigated by Cox regression. An optimal cut-off was calculated by means of the Youden-Index. Results Patients with higher admission BUN concentration were older, clinically sicker and had more pronounced laboratory signs of multi-organ failure including kidney failure. Admission BUN was associated with adverse long-term mortality (HR 1.013; 95%CI 1.012–1.014; p<0.001). An optimal cut-off was calculated at 28 mg/dL which was associated with adverse outcome even after correction for APACHE2 (HR 1.89; 95%CI 1.59–2.26; p<0.001), SAPS2 (HR 1.85; 95%CI 1.55–2.21; p<0.001) and several parameters including creatinine in an integrative model (HR 3.34; 95%CI 2.89–3.86; p<0.001). We matched 614 patients with admission BUN >28 mg/dL to case-controls ≤ 28mg/dL corrected for APACHE2 scores: BUN above 28 mg/dL remained associated with adverse outcome in a paired analysis with the difference being 5.85% (95%CI 1.23–10.47%; p = 0.02). Conclusions High BUN concentration at admission was robustly associated with adverse outcome in critically ill patients admitted to an ICU, even after correction for co-founders including renal failure. BUN might constitute an independent, easily available and important parameter for risk stratification in the critically ill. PMID:29370259
ICUE (Interactivity Centered Usability Evaluation) is an enhanced usability testing protocol created by the researcher. ICUE augments the facilitator's role for usability testing, and offers strategies in developing and presenting usability tasks during a testing session. ICUE was designed to address weaknesses found in the usability evaluation of…
Wanderer, Jonathan P.; Leffert, Lisa R.; Mhyre, Jill M.; Kuklina, Elena V.; Callaghan, William M.; Bateman, Brian T.
Objective To define the incidence, indications, and temporal trends in obstetric-related intensive care unit (ICU) admissions Design Descriptive analysis of utilization patterns Setting All hospitals within the State of Maryland Patients All antepartum, delivery and postpartum patients who were hospitalized between 1999 and 2008 Interventions None Measurements and Main Results We identified 2,927 ICU admissions from 765,598 admissions for antepartum, delivery, or postpartum conditions using appropriate International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision-Clinical Modification (ICD-9 CM) codes. The overall rate of ICU utilization was 419.1 per 100,000 deliveries, with rates of 162.5, 202.6 and 54.0 per 100,000 deliveries for the antepartum, delivery and postpartum periods, respectively. The leading diagnoses associated with ICU admission were pregnancy-related hypertensive disease (present in 29.9% of admissions), hemorrhage (18.8%), cardiomyopathy or other cardiac disease (18.3%), genitourinary infection (11.5%), complications from ectopic pregnancies and abortions (10.3%), non-genitourinary infection (10.1%), sepsis (7.1%), cerebrovascular disease (5.8%) and pulmonary embolism (3.7%). We assessed for changes in the most common diagnoses in the ICU population over time and found rising rates of sepsis (10.1 per 100,000 deliveries to 16.6 per 100,000 deliveries, p=0.003) and trauma (9.2 per 100,000 deliveries to 13.6 per 100,000 deliveries, p=0.026) with decreasing rates of anesthetic complications (11.3 per 100,000 to 4.7 per 100,000, p=0.006). The overall frequency of obstetric-related ICU admission and the rates for other indications remained relatively stable. Conclusions Between 1999 and 2008, 419.1 per 100,000 deliveries in Maryland were complicated by ICU admission. Hospitals providing obstetric services should plan for appropriate critical care management and/or transfer of women with severe morbidities during pregnancy. PMID:23648568
Vourc'h, Mickael; Feuillet, Fanny; Mahe, Pierre-Joachim; Sebille, Véronique; Asehnoune, Karim
Alcohol is the leading psychoactive substance consumed in France, with about 15 million regular consumers. The National institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) considers alcohol abuse to be more than 14 units of alcohol a week for men and 7 units for women. The specific complication of alcoholism is the alcohol withdrawal syndrome. Its incidence reaches up to 30 % and its main complications are delirium tremens, restlessness, extended hospital stay, higher morbidity, and psychiatric and cognitive impairment. Without appropriate treatment, delirium tremens can lead to death in up to 50 % of patients. This prospective, double-blind, randomised controlled study versus placebo will be conducted in twelve French intensive care units (ICU). Patients with an alcohol intake level higher than the NIAAA threshold, who are under mechanical ventilation, will be included. The primary objective is to determine whether baclofen is more efficient than placebo in preventing restlessness-related side effects in the ICU. Secondary outcomes include mechanical ventilation duration, length of ICU stay, and cumulative doses of sedatives and painkillers received within 28 days of ICU admission. Restlessness-related side effects in the ICU are defined as unplanned extubation, medical disposal removal (such as urinary catheter, venous or arterial line or surgical drain), falling out of bed, ICU runaway (leaving ICU without physician's approval), immobilisation device removal, self-aggression or aggression towards medical staff. Daily doses of baclofen/placebo will be guided by daily creatinine clearance assessment. Restlessness in alcoholic patients is a life-threatening issue in ICUs. BACLOREA is a randomised study assessing the capacity of baclofen to prevent agitation in mechanically ventilated patients. Enrolment of 314 patients will begin in June 2016 and is expected to end in October 2018. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02723383 , registered on 3 March 2016.
Giannini, A; Consonni, D
Physicians' perceptions regarding intensive care unit (ICU) resource allocation and the problem of inappropriate admissions are unknown. We carried out an anonymous, self-administered questionnaire survey to assess the perceptions and attitudes of ICU physicians at all 20 ICUs in Milan, Italy, regarding inappropriate admissions and resource allocation. Eighty-seven percent (225/259) of physicians responded. Inappropriate admissions were acknowledged by 86% of respondents. The reasons given were clinical doubt (33%); limited decision time (32%); assessment error (25%); pressure from superiors (13%), referring clinician (11%) or family (5%); threat of legal action (5%); and an economically advantageous 'Diagnosis Related Group' (1%). Respondents reported being pressurized to make more 'productive' use of ICU beds by Unit heads (frequently 16%), hospital management (frequently 10%) and colleagues (frequently 4%). Five percent reported refusing appropriate admissions following 'indications' not to admit financially disadvantageous cases. Admissions after elective surgery prioritized patients from profitable surgical departments: frequently for 6% of respondents and occasionally for 15%. Sixty-seven percent said they frequently received requests for appropriate admissions when no beds were available. This was considered sufficient reason to withdraw treatment from patients with lower survival probability (sometimes 21%) or for whom nothing more could be done (sometimes 51%, frequently 11%). Inappropriate ICU admissions were perceived as a common event but were mainly attributed to difficulties in assessing suitability. Physicians were aware that their decisions were often influenced by factors other than medical necessity. Economic influences were perceived as limited but not negligible. Decisions to forgo treatment could be influenced by the need to admit other patients.
Cismondi, F; Celi, L A; Fialho, A S; Vieira, S M; Reti, S R; Sousa, J M C; Finkelstein, S N
To reduce unnecessary lab testing by predicting when a proposed future lab test is likely to contribute information gain and thereby influence clinical management in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding. Recent studies have demonstrated that frequent laboratory testing does not necessarily relate to better outcomes. Data preprocessing, feature selection, and classification were performed and an artificial intelligence tool, fuzzy modeling, was used to identify lab tests that do not contribute an information gain. There were 11 input variables in total. Ten of these were derived from bedside monitor trends heart rate, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, temperature, blood pressure, and urine collections, as well as infusion products and transfusions. The final input variable was a previous value from one of the eight lab tests being predicted: calcium, PTT, hematocrit, fibrinogen, lactate, platelets, INR and hemoglobin. The outcome for each test was a binary framework defining whether a test result contributed information gain or not. Predictive modeling was applied to recognize unnecessary lab tests in a real world ICU database extract comprising 746 patients with gastrointestinal bleeding. Classification accuracy of necessary and unnecessary lab tests of greater than 80% was achieved for all eight lab tests. Sensitivity and specificity were satisfactory for all the outcomes. An average reduction of 50% of the lab tests was obtained. This is an improvement from previously reported similar studies with average performance 37% by [1-3]. Reducing frequent lab testing and the potential clinical and financial implications are an important issue in intensive care. In this work we present an artificial intelligence method to predict the benefit of proposed future laboratory tests. Using ICU data from 746 patients with gastrointestinal bleeding, and eleven measurements, we demonstrate high accuracy in predicting the likely information to be gained from proposed future
Cismondi, F.; Celi, L.A.; Fialho, A.S.; Vieira, S.M.; Reti, S.R.; Sousa, J.M.C.; Finkelstein, S.N.
Objectives To reduce unnecessary lab testing by predicting when a proposed future lab test is likely to contribute information gain and thereby influence clinical management in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding. Recent studies have demonstrated that frequent laboratory testing does not necessarily relate to better outcomes. Design Data preprocessing, feature selection, and classification were performed and an artificial intelligence tool, fuzzy modeling, was used to identify lab tests that do not contribute an information gain. There were 11 input variables in total. Ten of these were derived from bedside monitor trends heart rate, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, temperature, blood pressure, and urine collections, as well as infusion products and transfusions. The final input variable was a previous value from one of the eight lab tests being predicted: calcium, PTT, hematocrit, fibrinogen, lactate, platelets, INR and hemoglobin. The outcome for each test was a binary framework defining whether a test result contributed information gain or not. Patients Predictive modeling was applied to recognize unnecessary lab tests in a real world ICU database extract comprising 746 patients with gastrointestinal bleeding. Main results Classification accuracy of necessary and unnecessary lab tests of greater than 80% was achieved for all eight lab tests. Sensitivity and specificity were satisfactory for all the outcomes. An average reduction of 50% of the lab tests was obtained. This is an improvement from previously reported similar studies with average performance 37% by [1–3]. Conclusions Reducing frequent lab testing and the potential clinical and financial implications are an important issue in intensive care. In this work we present an artificial intelligence method to predict the benefit of proposed future laboratory tests. Using ICU data from 746 patients with gastrointestinal bleeding, and eleven measurements, we demonstrate high accuracy in predicting the
In a relatively short time, technology applications have become an essential feature of the admissions business. They make the jobs of international admissions professionals easier in many ways, allowing for more robust communication with applicants and counselors, a streamlined application process, and quicker access to information about…
Chronicle of Higher Education, 2007
Marilee Jones has resigned as a dean of admissions at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology after admitting that she had misrepresented her academic degrees when first applying to work at the university in 1979. As one of the nation's most prominent admissions officers--and a leader in the movement to make the application process less…
Few people set out to become admissions counselors, say people in the profession. But the field is requiring skills that are more demanding and varied than ever. And at a time when universities are looking especially hard at the bottom line, people in admissions need to constantly learn new things and make themselves indispensable. Counselors…
Udy, Andrew A; Baptista, João P; Lim, Noelle L; Joynt, Gavin M; Jarrett, Paul; Wockner, Leesa; Boots, Robert J; Lipman, Jeffrey
To describe the prevalence and natural history of augmented renal clearance in a cohort of recently admitted critically ill patients with normal plasma creatinine concentrations. Multicenter, prospective, observational study. Four, tertiary-level, university-affiliated, ICUs in Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Portugal. Study participants had to have an expected ICU length of stay more than 24 hours, no evidence of absolute renal impairment (admission plasma creatinine < 120 µmol/L), and no history of prior renal replacement therapy or chronic kidney disease. Convenience sampling was used at each participating site. Eight-hour urinary creatinine clearances were collected daily, as the primary method of measuring renal function. Augmented renal clearance was defined by a creatinine clearance more than or equal to 130 mL/min/1.73 m. Additional demographic, physiological, therapeutic, and outcome data were recorded prospectively. Nine hundred thirty-two patients were admitted to the participating ICUs over the study period, and 281 of which were recruited into the study, contributing 1,660 individual creatinine clearance measures. The mean age (95% CI) was 54.4 years (52.5-56.4 yr), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score was 16 (15.2-16.7), and ICU mortality was 8.5%. Overall, 65.1% manifested augmented renal clearance on at least one occasion during the first seven study days; the majority (74%) of whom did so on more than or equal to 50% of their creatinine clearance measures. Using a mixed-effects model, the presence of augmented renal clearance on study day 1 strongly predicted (p = 0.019) sustained elevation of creatinine clearance in these patients over the first week in ICU. Augmented renal clearance appears to be a common finding in this patient group, with sustained elevation of creatinine clearance throughout the first week in ICU. Future studies should focus on the implications for accurate dosing of renally eliminated pharmaceuticals
Vizcarra-Ugalde, Sergio; Rico-Hernández, Montserrat; Monjarás-Ávila, César; Bernal-Silva, Sofía; Garrocho-Rangel, Maria E; Ochoa-Pérez, Uciel R; Noyola, Daniel E
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common etiology for acute respiratory infection hospital admissions in young children. Case fatality rates for hospitalized patients range between 0% and 3.4%. Recent reports indicate that deaths associated with RSV are uncommon in developed countries. However, the role of this virus as a current cause of mortality in other countries requires further examination. Children with RSV infection admitted between May 2003 and December 2014 to a level 2 specialty hospital in Mexico were included in this analysis. Underlying risk factors, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and condition on discharge were assessed to determine the ICU admission and death rates associated to RSV infection. We analyzed data of 1153 patients with RSV infection in whom information regarding underlying illnesses and discharge status was available. Sixty patients (5.2 %) were admitted to the ICU and 12 (1.04 %) died. Relevant underlying conditions were present in 320 (27.7%) patients. Infants with underlying respiratory disorders (excluding asthma) and a history of prematurity had high ICU admission rates (17.1% and 13.8%, respectively). Mortality rates were highest for infants with respiratory disease (excluding asthma) (7.3%), cardiovascular diseases (5.9%) and neurologic disorders (5.3%). The ICU admission and death rates were higher in infants <6 months of age than in other age groups. The ICU admission rate and mortality rate in Mexican infants hospitalized with RSV infection were 5.2% and 1%, respectively. Mortality rates were high in infants with respiratory, cardiovascular and neurologic disorders.
Sethi, Sidharth K; Raghunathan, Veena; Shah, Shilpi; Dhaliwal, Maninder; Jha, Pranaw; Kumar, Maneesh; Paluri, Sravanthi; Bansal, Shyam; Mhanna, Maroun J; Raina, Rupesh
Objectives: We investigated the association of fluid overload and oxygenation in critically sick children, and their correlation with various outcomes (duration of ventilation, ICU stay, and mortality). We also assessed whether renal angina index (RAI) at admission can predict mortality or acute kidney injury (AKI) on day 3 after admission. Design and setting: Prospective study, pediatric intensive care in a tertiary hospital. Duration: June 2013-June 2014. Patients: Patients were included if they needed invasive mechanical ventilation for >24 h and had an indwelling arterial catheter. Patients with congenital heart disease or those who received renal replacement therapy (RRT) were excluded. Methods: Oxygenation index, fluid overload percent (daily, cumulative), RAI at admission and pediatric logistic organ dysfunction (PELOD) score were obtained in all critically ill children. KDIGO classification was used to define AKI, using both creatinine and urine output criteria. Admission data for determination of RAI included the use of vasopressors, invasive mechanical ventilation, percent fluid overload, and change in kidney function (estimated creatinine clearance). Univariable and multivariable approaches were used to assess the relations between fluid overload, oxygenation index and clinical outcomes. An RAI cutoff >8 was used to predict AKI on day 3 of admission and mortality. Results: One hundred and two patients were recruited. Fluid overload predicted oxygenation index in all patients, independent of age, gender and PELOD score ( p < 0.05). Fluid overload was associated with longer duration of ventilation ( p < 0.05), controlled for age, gender, and PELOD score. Day-3 AKI rates were higher in patients with a RAI of 8 or more, and higher areas under the RAI curve had better prediction rates for Day-3 AKI. An RAI <8 had high negative predictive values (80-95%) for Day-3 AKI. RAI was better than traditional markers of pediatric severity of illness (PELOD) score for
Sethi, Sidharth K.; Raghunathan, Veena; Shah, Shilpi; Dhaliwal, Maninder; Jha, Pranaw; Kumar, Maneesh; Paluri, Sravanthi; Bansal, Shyam; Mhanna, Maroun J.; Raina, Rupesh
Objectives: We investigated the association of fluid overload and oxygenation in critically sick children, and their correlation with various outcomes (duration of ventilation, ICU stay, and mortality). We also assessed whether renal angina index (RAI) at admission can predict mortality or acute kidney injury (AKI) on day 3 after admission. Design and setting: Prospective study, pediatric intensive care in a tertiary hospital. Duration: June 2013-June 2014. Patients: Patients were included if they needed invasive mechanical ventilation for >24 h and had an indwelling arterial catheter. Patients with congenital heart disease or those who received renal replacement therapy (RRT) were excluded. Methods: Oxygenation index, fluid overload percent (daily, cumulative), RAI at admission and pediatric logistic organ dysfunction (PELOD) score were obtained in all critically ill children. KDIGO classification was used to define AKI, using both creatinine and urine output criteria. Admission data for determination of RAI included the use of vasopressors, invasive mechanical ventilation, percent fluid overload, and change in kidney function (estimated creatinine clearance). Univariable and multivariable approaches were used to assess the relations between fluid overload, oxygenation index and clinical outcomes. An RAI cutoff >8 was used to predict AKI on day 3 of admission and mortality. Results: One hundred and two patients were recruited. Fluid overload predicted oxygenation index in all patients, independent of age, gender and PELOD score (p < 0.05). Fluid overload was associated with longer duration of ventilation (p < 0.05), controlled for age, gender, and PELOD score. Day-3 AKI rates were higher in patients with a RAI of 8 or more, and higher areas under the RAI curve had better prediction rates for Day-3 AKI. An RAI <8 had high negative predictive values (80–95%) for Day-3 AKI. RAI was better than traditional markers of pediatric severity of illness (PELOD) score for
As the issue of data overload is a problem in critical care today, it is of utmost importance to improve acquisition, storage, integration, and presentation of medical data, which appears only feasible with the help of bedside computers. The data originates from four major sources: (1) the bedside medical devices, (2) the local area network (LAN) of the ICU, (3) the hospital information system (HIS) and (4) manual input. All sources differ markedly in quality and quantity of data and in the demands of the interfaces between source of data and patient database. The demands for data acquisition from bedside medical devices, ICU-LAN and HIS concentrate on technical problems, such as computational power, storage capacity, real-time processing, interfacing with different devices and networks and the unmistakable assignment of data to the individual patient. The main problem of manual data acquisition is the definition and configuration of the user interface that must allow the inexperienced user to interact with the computer intuitively. Emphasis must be put on the construction of a pleasant, logical and easy-to-handle graphical user interface (GUI). Short response times will require high graphical processing capacity. Moreover, high computational resources are necessary in the future for additional interfacing devices such as speech recognition and 3D-GUI. Therefore, in an ICU environment the demands for computational power are enormous. These problems are complicated by the urgent need for friendly and easy-to-handle user interfaces. Both facts place ICU bedside computing at the vanguard of present and future workstation development leaving no room for solutions based on traditional concepts of personal computers.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
Maslove, David M; Lamontagne, Francois; Marshall, John C; Heyland, Daren K
Precision medicine is increasingly touted as a groundbreaking new paradigm in biomedicine. In the ICU, the complexity and ambiguity of critical illness syndromes have been identified as fundamental justifications for the adoption of a precision approach to research and practice. Inherently protean diseases states such as sepsis and acute respiratory distress syndrome have manifestations that are physiologically and anatomically diffuse, and that fluctuate over short periods of time. This leads to considerable heterogeneity among patients, and conditions in which a "one size fits all" approach to therapy can lead to widely divergent results. Current ICU therapy can thus be seen as imprecise, with the potential to realize substantial gains from the adoption of precision medicine approaches. A number of challenges still face the development and adoption of precision critical care, a transition that may occur incrementally rather than wholesale. This article describes a few concrete approaches to addressing these challenges.First, novel clinical trial designs, including registry randomized controlled trials and platform trials, suggest ways in which conventional trials can be adapted to better accommodate the physiologic heterogeneity of critical illness. Second, beyond the "omics" technologies already synonymous with precision medicine, the data-rich environment of the ICU can generate complex physiologic signatures that could fuel precision-minded research and practice. Third, the role of computing infrastructure and modern informatics methods will be central to the pursuit of precision medicine in the ICU, necessitating close collaboration with data scientists. As work toward precision critical care continues, small proof-of-concept studies may prove useful in highlighting the potential of this approach.
Moein, Houshang; Khalili, Hossein A; Keramatian, Kamyar
Traumatic brain injury is one of the major causes of death and disability among young people. Methylphenidate, a neural stimulant and protective drug, which has been mainly used for childhood attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, has shown some benefits in late psychosocial problems in patients with traumatic brain injury. Its effect on arousal and consciousness has been also revealed in the sub-acute phase of traumatic brain injury. We studied its effect on the acute phase of moderate and severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) in relation to the length of ICU and hospital admission. Severely and moderately TBI patients (according to inclusion and exclusion criteria) were randomized to treatment and control groups. The treatment group received methylphenidate 0.3mg/kg per dose PO BID by the second day of admission until the time of discharge, and the control group received a placebo. Admission information and daily Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) were recorded. Medical, surgical, and discharge plans for patients were determined by the attending physician, blinded to the study. Forty patients with severe TBI (GCS = 5-8) and 40 moderately TBI patients (GCS = 9-12) were randomly divided into treatment and control groups on the day of admission. In the severely TBI patients, both hospital and ICU length of stay, on average, were shorter in the treatment group compared with the control group. In the moderately TBI patients while ICU stay was shorter in the treatment group, there was no significant reduction of the period of hospitalization. There were no significant differences between the treatment and control groups in terms of age, sex, post resuscitation GCS, or brain CT scan findings, in either severely or moderately TBI patients. Methylphenidate was associated with reductions in ICU and hospital length of stay by 23% in severely TBI patients (P = 0.06 for ICU and P = 0.029 for hospital stay time). However, in the moderately TBI patients who received methylphenidate
Davydow, Dimitry S.; Zatzick, Douglas; Hough, Catherine L.; Katon, Wayne J.
Background There have been no studies describing post-intensive care unit (ICU) alcohol use among medical-surgical ICU survivors. Objective To examine alcohol use and identify potentially modifiable risk factors, such as in-hospital probable acute stress disorder, for increased alcohol use following medical-surgical ICU admission. Method This longitudinal investigation included 150 medical-surgical ICU survivors. In-hospital interviews obtained baseline characteristics including pre-ICU alcohol use with the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and in-hospital probable acute stress disorder with the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist-civilian version. Clinical factors were obtained from medical records. Post-ICU alcohol use was ascertained via telephone interviews at 3 and 12 months post-discharge using the AUDIT. Mixed-model linear regression was used to examine potential risk factors for increased post-ICU alcohol use. Results There was a significant decline in the mean AUDIT score from baseline (3.9, 95%Confidence Interval [95%CI]: 2.9, 5.0) to 3 months post-ICU (1.5, 95%CI: 1.0, 2.1) (P < 0.001 by one-way analysis of variance [ANOVA]), with a significant increase between 3 and 12 months post-ICU (2.7, 95%CI: 1.8, 3.5) (P < 0.001 by one-way ANOVA). After adjusting for patient and clinical factors, in-hospital probable acute stress disorder (beta: 3.0, 95%CI: 0.9, 5.0) and pre-ICU unhealthy alcohol use (beta: 5.4, 95%CI: 3.4, 7.4) were independently associated with increased post-ICU alcohol use. Conclusions Alcohol use decreases in the early aftermath of medical-surgical ICU admission and then increases significantly by one year post-ICU. Interventions for unhealthy alcohol use among medical-surgical ICU survivors that take into account comorbid psychiatric symptoms are needed. PMID:23414847
Guzman, Oscar; Campbell, Noll L.; Walroth, Todd; Tricker, Jason L.; Hui, Siu L.; Perkins, Anthony; Zawahiri, Mohammed; Buckley, John D.; Farber, Mark O.; Ely, E. Wesley; Boustani, Malaz A.
Background: Delirium evaluation in patients in the ICU requires the use of an arousal/sedation assessment tool prior to assessing consciousness. The Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale (RASS) and the Riker Sedation-Agitation Scale (SAS) are well-validated arousal/sedation tools. We sought to assess the concordance of RASS and SAS assessments in determining eligibility of patients in the ICU for delirium screening using the confusion assessment method for the ICU (CAM-ICU). Methods: We performed a prospective cohort study in the adult medical, surgical, and progressive (step-down) ICUs of a tertiary care, university-affiliated, urban hospital in Indianapolis, Indiana. The cohort included 975 admissions to the ICU between January and October 2009. Results: The outcome measures of interest were the correlation and agreement between RASS and SAS measurements. In 2,469 RASS and SAS paired screens, the rank correlation using the Spearman correlation coefficient was 0.91, and the agreement between the two screening tools for assessing CAM-ICU eligibility as estimated by the κ coefficient was 0.93. Analysis showed that 70.1% of screens were eligible for CAM-ICU assessment using RASS (7.1% sedated [RASS −3 to −1]; 62.6% calm ; and 0.4% restless, agitated [+1 to +3]), compared with 72.1% using SAS (5% sedated [SAS 3]; 66.5% calm ; and 0.6% anxious, agitated [5, 6]). In the mechanically ventilated subgroup, RASS identified 19.1% CAM-ICU eligible patients compared with 24.6% by SAS. The correlation coefficient in this subgroup was 0.70 and the agreement was 0.81. Conclusion: Both SAS and RASS led to similar rates of delirium assessment using the CAM-ICU. PMID:22539644
Sirgo, Gonzalo; Esteban, Federico; Gómez, Josep; Moreno, Gerard; Rodríguez, Alejandro; Blanch, Lluis; Guardiola, Juan José; Gracia, Rafael; De Haro, Lluis; Bodí, María
Big data analytics promise insights into healthcare processes and management, improving outcomes while reducing costs. However, data quality is a major challenge for reliable results. Business process discovery techniques and an associated data model were used to develop data management tool, ICU-DaMa, for extracting variables essential for overseeing the quality of care in the intensive care unit (ICU). To determine the feasibility of using ICU-DaMa to automatically extract variables for the minimum dataset and ICU quality indicators from the clinical information system (CIS). The Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Fisher's exact test were used to compare the values extracted from the CIS with ICU-DaMa for 25 variables from all patients attended in a polyvalent ICU during a two-month period against the gold standard of values manually extracted by two trained physicians. Discrepancies with the gold standard were classified into plausibility, conformance, and completeness errors. Data from 149 patients were included. Although there were no significant differences between the automatic method and the manual method, we detected differences in values for five variables, including one plausibility error and two conformance and completeness errors. Plausibility: 1) Sex, ICU-DaMa incorrectly classified one male patient as female (error generated by the Hospital's Admissions Department). Conformance: 2) Reason for isolation, ICU-DaMa failed to detect a human error in which a professional misclassified a patient's isolation. 3) Brain death, ICU-DaMa failed to detect another human error in which a professional likely entered two mutually exclusive values related to the death of the patient (brain death and controlled donation after circulatory death). Completeness: 4) Destination at ICU discharge, ICU-DaMa incorrectly classified two patients due to a professional failing to fill out the patient discharge form when thepatients died. 5) Length of continuous renal replacement
Kothe, Christian; Hissbach, Johanna; Hampe, Wolfgang
Although some recent studies concluded that dexterity is not a reliable predictor of performance in preclinical laboratory courses in dentistry, they could not disprove earlier findings which confirmed the worth of manual dexterity tests in dental admission. We developed a wire bending test (HAM-Man) which was administered during dental freshmen’s first week in 2008, 2009, and 2010. The purpose of our study was to evaluate if the HAM-Man is a useful selection criterion additional to the high school grade point average (GPA) in dental admission. Regression analysis revealed that GPA only accounted for a maximum of 9% of students’ performance in preclinical laboratory courses, in six out of eight models the explained variance was below 2%. The HAM-Man incrementally explained up to 20.5% of preclinical practical performance over GPA. In line with findings from earlier studies the HAM-Man test of manual dexterity showed satisfactory incremental validity. While GPA has a focus on cognitive abilities, the HAM-Man reflects learning of unfamiliar psychomotor skills, spatial relationships, and dental techniques needed in preclinical laboratory courses. The wire bending test HAM-Man is a valuable additional selection instrument for applicants of dental schools. PMID:24872857
Hinds, Nicholas; Borah, Amit; Yoo, Erika J
To compare outcomes of patients refused medical intensive care unit (MICU) admission overnight to those refused during the day and to examine the impact of the intensivist in triage. Retrospective, observational study of patients refused MICU admission at an urban university hospital. Of 294 patients, 186 (63.3%) were refused admission overnight compared to 108 (36.7%) refused during the day. Severity-of-illness by the Mortality Probability Model was similar between the two groups (P=.20). Daytime triage refusals were more likely to be staffed by an intensivist (P=.01). After risk-adjustment, daytime refusals had a lower odds of subsequent ICU admission (OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.22-0.95, P=.04) than patients triaged at night. There was no evidence for interaction between time of triage and intensivist staffing of the patient (P=.99). Patients refused MICU admission overnight are more likely to be later admitted to an ICU than patients refused during the day. However, the mechanism for this observation does not appear to depend on the intensivist's direct evaluation of the patient. Further investigation into the clinician-specific effects of ICU triage and identification of potentially modifiable hospital triage practices will help to improve both ICU utilization and patient safety. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Rodríguez, A; Socías, L; Guerrero, J E; Figueira, J C; González, N; Maraví-Poma, E; Lorente, L; Martín, M; Albaya-Moreno, A; Algora-Weber, A; Vallés, J; León-Gil, C; Lisboa, T; Balasini, C; Villabón, M; Pérez-Padilla, R; Barahona, D; Rello, J
Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1)v infection is the first pandemic in which intensive care units (ICU) play a fundamental role. It has spread very rapidly since the first cases were diagnosed in Mexico with the subsequent spread of the virus throughout the Southern Cone and Europe during the summer season. This study has aimed to compare the clinical presentation and outcome among the critical patients admitted to the ICU until July 31, 2009 in Spain with some series from Latin America. Six series of critically ill patients admitted to the ICU were considered. Clinical characteristics, complications and outcome were compared between series. Young patients (35-45 years) with viral pneumonia as a predominant ICU admission cause with severe respiratory failure and a high need of mechanical ventilation (60-100%) were affected. Obesity, pregnancy and chronic lung disease were risk factors associated with a worse outcome, however there was a high number of patients without comorbidities (40-50%). Mortality rate was between 25-50% and higher in the Latin America series, demonstrating the specific potential pathogenesis of the new virus. The use of antiviral treatment was delayed (between 3 and 6 days) and not generalized, with greater delay in Latin America in regards to Spain. These data suggest that a more aggressive treatment strategy, with earlier and easier access to the antiviral treatment might reduce the number of ICU admissions and mortality. Copyright 2009 Elsevier España, S.L. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.
Mistraletti, Giovanni; Mantovani, Elena S; Cadringher, Paolo; Cerri, Barbara; Corbella, Davide; Umbrello, Michele; Anania, Stefania; Andrighi, Elisa; Barello, Serena; Di Carlo, Alessandra; Martinetti, Federica; Formenti, Paolo; Spanu, Paolo; Iapichino, Gaetano
A relevant innovation about sedation of long-term Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients is the 'conscious target': patients should be awake even during the critical phases of illness. Enteral sedative administration is nowadays unusual, even though the gastrointestinal tract works soon after ICU admission. The enteral approach cannot produce deep sedation; however, it is as adequate as the intravenous one, if the target is to keep patients awake and adapted to the environment, and has fewer side effects and lower costs. A randomized, controlled, multicenter, single-blind trial comparing enteral and intravenous sedative treatments has been done in 12 Italian ICUs. The main objective was to achieve and maintain the desired sedation level: observed RASS = target RASS ± 1. Three hundred high-risk patients were planned to be randomly assigned to receive either intravenous propofol/midazolam or enteral melatonin/hydroxyzine/lorazepam. Group assignment occurred through online minimization process, in order to balance variables potentially influencing the outcomes (age, sex, SAPS II, type of admission, kidney failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, sepsis) between groups. Once per shift, the staff recorded neurological monitoring using validated tools. Three flowcharts for pain, sedation, and delirium have been proposed; they have been designed to treat potentially correctable factors first, and, only once excluded, to administer neuroactive drugs. The study lasted from January 24 to December 31, 2012. A total of 348 patients have been randomized, through a centralized website, using a specific software expressly designed for this study. The created network of ICUs included a mix of both university and non-university hospitals, with different experience in managing enteral sedation. A dedicated free-access website was also created, in both Italian and English, for continuous education of ICU staff through CME courses. This 'educational research' project aims both to
L'her, Erwan; Martin-Babau, Jérôme; Lellouche, François
Knowledge of patients' height is essential for daily practice in the intensive care unit. However, actual height measurements are unavailable on a daily routine in the ICU and measured height in the supine position and/or visual estimates may lack consistency. Clinicians do need simple and rapid methods to estimate the patients' height, especially in short height and/or obese patients. The objectives of the study were to evaluate several anthropometric formulas for height estimation on healthy volunteers and to test whether several of these estimates will help tidal volume setting in ICU patients. This was a prospective, observational study in a medical intensive care unit of a university hospital. During the first phase of the study, eight limb measurements were performed on 60 healthy volunteers and 18 height estimation formulas were tested. During the second phase, four height estimates were performed on 60 consecutive ICU patients under mechanical ventilation. In the 60 healthy volunteers, actual height was well correlated with the gold standard, measured height in the erect position. Correlation was low between actual and calculated height, using the hand's length and width, the index, or the foot equations. The Chumlea method and its simplified version, performed in the supine position, provided adequate estimates. In the 60 ICU patients, calculated height using the simplified Chumlea method was well correlated with measured height (r = 0.78; ∂ < 1 %). Ulna and tibia estimates also provided valuable estimates. All these height estimates allowed calculating IBW or PBW that were significantly different from the patients' actual weight on admission. In most cases, tidal volume set according to these estimates was lower than what would have been set using the actual weight. When actual height is unavailable in ICU patients undergoing mechanical ventilation, alternative anthropometric methods to obtain patient's height based on lower leg and on forearm
Douglas, Sara L.; O’Toole, Elizabeth; Gordon, Nahida H.; Hejal, Rana; Peerless, Joel; Rowbottom, James; Garland, Allan; Lilly, Craig; Wiencek, Clareen; Hickman, Ronald
Background: Formal family meetings have been recommended as a useful approach to assist in goal setting, facilitate decision making, and reduce use of ineffective resources in the ICU. We examined patient outcomes before and after implementation of an intensive communication system (ICS) to test the effect of regular, structured formal family meetings on patient outcomes among long-stay ICU patients. Methods: One hundred thirty-five patients receiving usual care and communication were enrolled as the control group, followed by enrollment of intervention patients (n = 346), from five ICUs. The ICS included a family meeting within 5 days of ICU admission and weekly thereafter. Each meeting discussed medical update, values and preferences, and goals of care; treatment plan; and milestones for judging effectiveness of treatment. Results: Using multivariate analysis, there were no significant differences between control and intervention patients in length of stay (LOS), the primary end point. Similarly, there were no significant differences in indicators of aggressiveness of care or treatment limitation decisions (ICU mortality, LOS, duration of ventilation, treatment limitation orders, or use of tracheostomy or percutaneous gastrostomy). Exploratory analysis suggested that in the medical ICUs, the intervention was associated with a lower prevalence of tracheostomy among patients who died or had do-not-attempt-resuscitation orders in place. Conclusions: The negative findings of the main analysis, in combination with preliminary evidence of differences among types of unit, suggest that further examination of the influence of patient, family, and unit characteristics on the effects of a system of regular family meetings may be warranted. Despite the lack of influence on patient outcomes, structured family meetings may be an effective approach to meeting information and support needs. Trial registry: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT01057238 ; URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov PMID
Moors, Ine; Pène, Frédéric; Lengline, Étienne; Benoit, Dominique
Over the past decades, survival of critically ill hematological patients has dramatically improved, and these patients are more frequently referred to the ICU for intensive treatment, including a rising need for administering anticancer-therapy in this setting. The scarce literature on this subject provides evidence for feasibility of administering chemotherapy in the ICU, with expected ICU survival of 60-70%, and one in three patients surviving at least 1 year after discharge. We summarize the recent evidence concerning outcome, dosing and indications of chemotherapy in the ICU, and provide practical guidelines for some special oncological situations. Anticancer-therapy in the ICU is feasible and no longer futile as long as it is initiated in a selected, well-informed patient population with reasonable prognostic expectations. Accurate recognition of organ failure and early referral to the ICU for both supportive care and timely administration of chemotherapy is recommended before the development of multisystem organ failure.
Ewig, S; de Roux, A; Bauer, T; Garcia, E; Mensa, J; Niederman, M; Torres, A
Background: A study was undertaken to validate the modified American Thoracic Society (ATS) rule and two British Thoracic Society (BTS) rules for the prediction of ICU admission and mortality of community acquired pneumonia and to provide a validation of these predictions on the basis of the pneumonia severity index (PSI). Method: Six hundred and ninety six consecutive patients (457 men (66%), mean (SD) age 67.8 (17.1) years, range 18–101) admitted to a tertiary care hospital were studied prospectively. Of these, 116 (16.7%) were admitted to the ICU. Results: The modified ATS rule achieved a sensitivity of 69% (95% CI 50.7 to 77.2), specificity of 97% (95% CI 96.4 to 98.9), positive predictive value of 87% (95% CI 78.3 to 93.1), and negative predictive value of 94% (95% CI 91.8 to 95.8) in predicting admission to the ICU. The corresponding predictive indices for mortality were 94% (95% CI 82.5 to 98.7), 93% (95% CI 90.6 to 94.7), 49% (95% CI 38.2 to 59.7), and 99.5% (95% CI 98.5 to 99.9), respectively. These figures compared favourably with both the BTS rules. The BTS-CURB criteria achieved predictions of pneumonia severity and mortality comparable to the PSI. Conclusions: This study confirms the power of the modified ATS rule to predict severe pneumonia in individual patients. It may be incorporated into current guidelines for the assessment of pneumonia severity. The CURB criteria may be used as an alternative tool to PSI for the detection of low risk patients. PMID:15115872
Bashar, Farshid R; Vahedian-Azimi, Amir; Hajiesmaeili, Mohammadreza; Salesi, Mahmood; Farzanegan, Behrooz; Shojaei, Seyedpouzhia; Goharani, Reza; Madani, Seyed J; Moghaddam, Kivan G; Hatamian, Sevak; Moghaddam, Hosseinali J; Mosavinasab, Seyed M M; Elamin, Elamin M; Miller, Andrew C
We investigated the impact of delirium on illness severity, psychological state, and memory in acute respiratory distress syndrome patients with very long ICU stay. Prospective cohort study in the medical-surgical ICUs of 2 teaching hospitals. Very long ICU stay (>75days) and prolonged delirium (≥40days) thresholds were determined by ROC analysis. Subjects were ≥18years, full-code, and provided informed consent. Illness severity was assessed using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV, Simplified Acute Physiology Score-3, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores. Psychological impact was assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Impact of Event Scale-Revised, and the 14-question Post-Traumatic Stress Syndrome (PTSS-14). Memory was assessed using the ICU Memory Tool survey. 181 subjects were included. Illness severity did not correlate with delirium duration. On logistic regression, only PTSS-14<49 correlated with delirium (p=0.001; 95% CI 1.011, 1.041). 49% remembered their ICU stay clearly. 47% had delusional memories, 50% reported intrusive memories, and 44% reported unexplained feelings of panic or apprehension. Delirium was associated with memory impairment and PTSS-14 scores suggestive of PTSD, but not illness severity. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Shi, Shu Jing; Li, Hui; Liu, Meng; Liu, Ying Mei; Zhou, Fei; Liu, Bo; Qu, Jiu Xin; Cao, Bin
Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) severity scores perform well in predicting mortality of CAP patients, but their applicability in influenza pneumonia is powerless. The aim of our research was to test the efficiency of PO 2 /FiO 2 and CAP severity scores in predicting mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission with influenza pneumonia patients. We reviewed all patients with positive influenza virus RNA detection in Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital during the 2009-2014 influenza seasons. Outpatients, inpatients with no pneumonia and incomplete data were excluded. We used receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) to verify the accuracy of severity scores or indices as mortality predictors in the study patients. Among 170 hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia, 30 (17.6%) died. Among those who were classified as low-risk (predicted mortality 0.1%-2.1%) by pneumonia severity index (PSI) or confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥65 year (CURB-65), the actual mortality ranged from 5.9 to 22.1%. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that hypoxia (PO 2 /FiO 2 ≤ 250) and lymphopenia (peripheral blood lymphocyte count <0.8 × 10 9 /L) were independent risk factors for mortality, with OR value of 22.483 (95% confidence interval 4.927-102.598) and 5.853 (95% confidence interval 1.887-18.152), respectively. PO 2 /FiO 2 combined lymphocyte count performed well for mortality prediction with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.945, which was significantly better than current CAP severity scores of PSI, CURB-65 and confusion, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥65 years for mortality prediction (P < 0.001). The scores or indices for ICU admission prediction to hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia confirmed a similar pattern and PO 2 /FiO 2 combined lymphocyte count was also the best predictor for predicting ICU admission. In conclusion, we found that PO 2 /FiO 2 combined lymphocyte count is simple and reliable predictor
Cabrera, Daniel; Thomas, Jonathan F; Wiswell, Jeffrey L; Walston, James M; Anderson, Joel R; Hess, Erik P; Bellolio, M Fernanda
Current cognitive sciences describe decision-making using the dual-process theory, where a System 1 is intuitive and a System 2 decision is hypothetico-deductive. We aim to compare the performance of these systems in determining patient acuity, disposition and diagnosis. Prospective observational study of emergency physicians assessing patients in the emergency department of an academic center. Physicians were provided the patient's chief complaint and vital signs and allowed to observe the patient briefly. They were then asked to predict acuity, final disposition (home, intensive care unit (ICU), non-ICU bed) and diagnosis. A patient was classified as sick by the investigators using previously published objective criteria. We obtained 662 observations from 289 patients. For acuity, the observers had a sensitivity of 73.9% (95% CI [67.7-79.5%]), specificity 83.3% (95% CI [79.5-86.7%]), positive predictive value 70.3% (95% CI [64.1-75.9%]) and negative predictive value 85.7% (95% CI [82.0-88.9%]). For final disposition, the observers made a correct prediction in 80.8% (95% CI [76.1-85.0%]) of the cases. For ICU admission, emergency physicians had a sensitivity of 33.9% (95% CI [22.1-47.4%]) and a specificity of 96.9% (95% CI [94.0-98.7%]). The correct diagnosis was made 54% of the time with the limited data available. System 1 decision-making based on limited information had a sensitivity close to 80% for acuity and disposition prediction, but the performance was lower for predicting ICU admission and diagnosis. System 1 decision-making appears insufficient for final decisions in these domains but likely provides a cognitive framework for System 2 decision-making.
Introduction Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) may contribute to the mortality associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We aimed to determine the incidence, outcome, and risk factors of bacterial VAP complicating severe ARDS in patients ventilated by using a strictly standardized lung-protective strategy. Methods This prospective epidemiologic study was done in all the 339 patients with severe ARDS included in a multicenter randomized, placebo-controlled double-blind trial of cisatracurium besylate in severe ARDS patients. Patients with suspected VAP underwent bronchoalveolar lavage to confirm the diagnosis. Results Ninety-eight (28.9%) patients had at least one episode of microbiologically documented bacterial VAP, including 41 (41.8%) who died in the ICU, compared with 74 (30.7%) of the 241 patients without VAP (P = 0.05). After adjustment, age and severity at baseline, but not VAP, were associated with ICU death. Cisatracurium besylate therapy within 2 days of ARDS onset decreased the risk of ICU death. Factors independently associated with an increased risk to develop a VAP were male sex and worse admission Glasgow Coma Scale score. Tracheostomy, enteral nutrition, and the use of a subglottic secretion-drainage device were protective. Conclusions In patients with severe ARDS receiving lung-protective ventilation, VAP was associated with an increased crude ICU mortality which did not remain significant after adjustment. PMID:22524447
Zieleskiewicz, Laurent; Chantry, Anne; Duclos, Gary; Bourgoin, Aurelie; Mignon, Alexandre; Deneux-Tharaux, Catherine; Leone, Marc
In developed countries, the rate of obstetric ICU admissions (admission during pregnancy or the postpartum period) is between 0.5 and 4 per 1000 deliveries and the overall case-fatality rate is about 2%. The most two common causes of obstetric ICU admissions concerned direct obstetric pathologies: obstetric hemorrhage and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. This review summarized the principles of management of critically ill pregnant patient. Its imply taking care of two patients in the same time. A coordinated multidisciplinary team including intensivists, anesthesiologists, obstetricians, pediatricians and pharmacists is therefore necessary. This team must work effectively together with regular staff aiming to evaluate daily the need to maintain the patient in intensive care unit or to prompt delivery. Keeping mother and baby together and fetal well-being must be balanced with the need of specialized advanced life support for the mother. The maternal physiological changes imply various consequences on management. The uterus aorto-caval compression implies tilting left the parturient. In case of cardiac arrest, uterus displacement and urgent cesarean delivery are needed. The high risk of aspiration and difficult tracheal intubation must be anticipated. Even during acute respiratory distress syndrome, hypoxemia and permissive hypercapnia must be avoided due to their negative impact on the fetus. Careful analysis of the benefit-risk ratio is needed before all drug administration. Streptococcal toxic shock syndrome and perineal fasciitis must be feared and a high level of suspicion of sepsis must be maintained. Finally the potential benefits of an ultrasound-based management are detailed. Copyright © 2016 Société française d'anesthésie et de réanimation (Sfar). Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Lee, Joon; Maslove, David M.; Dubin, Joel A.
Background Clinical outcome prediction normally employs static, one-size-fits-all models that perform well for the average patient but are sub-optimal for individual patients with unique characteristics. In the era of digital healthcare, it is feasible to dynamically personalize decision support by identifying and analyzing similar past patients, in a way that is analogous to personalized product recommendation in e-commerce. Our objectives were: 1) to prove that analyzing only similar patients leads to better outcome prediction performance than analyzing all available patients, and 2) to characterize the trade-off between training data size and the degree of similarity between the training data and the index patient for whom prediction is to be made. Methods and Findings We deployed a cosine-similarity-based patient similarity metric (PSM) to an intensive care unit (ICU) database to identify patients that are most similar to each patient and subsequently to custom-build 30-day mortality prediction models. Rich clinical and administrative data from the first day in the ICU from 17,152 adult ICU admissions were analyzed. The results confirmed that using data from only a small subset of most similar patients for training improves predictive performance in comparison with using data from all available patients. The results also showed that when too few similar patients are used for training, predictive performance degrades due to the effects of small sample sizes. Our PSM-based approach outperformed well-known ICU severity of illness scores. Although the improved prediction performance is achieved at the cost of increased computational burden, Big Data technologies can help realize personalized data-driven decision support at the point of care. Conclusions The present study provides crucial empirical evidence for the promising potential of personalized data-driven decision support systems. With the increasing adoption of electronic medical record (EMR) systems, our
Lee, Joon; Maslove, David M; Dubin, Joel A
Clinical outcome prediction normally employs static, one-size-fits-all models that perform well for the average patient but are sub-optimal for individual patients with unique characteristics. In the era of digital healthcare, it is feasible to dynamically personalize decision support by identifying and analyzing similar past patients, in a way that is analogous to personalized product recommendation in e-commerce. Our objectives were: 1) to prove that analyzing only similar patients leads to better outcome prediction performance than analyzing all available patients, and 2) to characterize the trade-off between training data size and the degree of similarity between the training data and the index patient for whom prediction is to be made. We deployed a cosine-similarity-based patient similarity metric (PSM) to an intensive care unit (ICU) database to identify patients that are most similar to each patient and subsequently to custom-build 30-day mortality prediction models. Rich clinical and administrative data from the first day in the ICU from 17,152 adult ICU admissions were analyzed. The results confirmed that using data from only a small subset of most similar patients for training improves predictive performance in comparison with using data from all available patients. The results also showed that when too few similar patients are used for training, predictive performance degrades due to the effects of small sample sizes. Our PSM-based approach outperformed well-known ICU severity of illness scores. Although the improved prediction performance is achieved at the cost of increased computational burden, Big Data technologies can help realize personalized data-driven decision support at the point of care. The present study provides crucial empirical evidence for the promising potential of personalized data-driven decision support systems. With the increasing adoption of electronic medical record (EMR) systems, our novel medical data analytics contributes to
Chaboyer, Wendy; Lin, Frances; Foster, Michelle; Retallick, Lorraine; Panuwatwanich, Kriengsak; Richards, Brent
To evaluate the impact of a redesigned intensive care unit (ICU) nursing discharge process on ICU discharge delay, hospital mortality, and ICU readmission within 72 hours. A quality improvement study using a time series design and statistical process control analysis was conducted in one Australian general ICU. The primary outcome measure was hours of discharge delay per patient discharged alive per month, measured for 15 months prior to, and for 12 months after the redesigned process was implemented. The redesign process included appointing a change agent to facilitate process improvement, developing a patient handover sheet, requesting ward staff to nominate an estimated transfer time, and designing a daily ICU discharge alert sheet that included an expected date of discharge. A total of 1,787 ICU discharges were included in this study, 1,001 in the 15 months before and 786 in the 12 months after the implementation of the new discharge processes. There was no difference in in-hospital mortality after discharge from ICU or ICU readmission within 72 hours during the study period. However, process improvement was demonstrated by a reduction in the average patient discharge delay time of 3.2 hours (from 4.6 hour baseline to 1.0 hours post-intervention). Involving both ward and ICU staff in the redesign process may have contributed to a shared situational awareness of the problems, which led to more timely and effective ICU discharge processes. The use of a change agent, whose ongoing role involved follow-up of patients discharged from ICU, may have helped to embed the new process into practice. ©2011 Sigma Theta Tau International.
Sakr, Yasser; Alhussami, Ilmi; Nanchal, Rahul; Wunderink, Richard G; Pellis, Tommaso; Wittebole, Xavier; Martin-Loeches, Ignacio; François, Bruno; Leone, Marc; Vincent, Jean-Louis
To assess the effect of body mass index on ICU outcome and on the development of ICU-acquired infection. A substudy of the Intensive Care Over Nations audit. Seven hundred thirty ICUs in 84 countries. All adult ICU patients admitted between May 8 and 18, 2012, except those admitted for less than 24 hours for routine postoperative monitoring (n = 10,069). In this subanalysis, only patients with complete data on height and weight (measured or estimated) on ICU admission in order to calculate the body mass index were included (n = 8,829). None. Underweight was defined as body mass index less than 18.5 kg/m, normal weight as body mass index 18.5-24.9 kg/m, overweight as body mass index 25-29.9 kg/m, obese as body mass index 30-39.9 kg/m, and morbidly obese as body mass index greater than or equal to 40 kg/m. The mean body mass index was 26.4 ± 6.5 kg/m. The ICU length of stay was similar among categories, but overweight and obese patients had longer hospital lengths of stay than patients with normal body mass index (10 [interquartile range, 5-21] and 11 [5-21] vs 9 [4-19] d; p < 0.01 pairwise). ICU mortality was lower in morbidly obese than in normal body mass index patients (11.2% vs 16.6%; p = 0.015). In-hospital mortality was lower in morbidly obese and overweight patients and higher in underweight patients than in those with normal body mass index. In a multilevel Cox proportional hazard analysis, underweight was independently associated with a higher hazard of 60-day in-hospital death (hazard ratio, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.05-1.65; p = 0.018), whereas overweight was associated with a lower hazard (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.71-0.89; p < 0.001). No body mass index category was associated with an increased hazard of ICU-acquired infection. In this large cohort of critically ill patients, underweight was independently associated with a higher hazard of 60-day in-hospital death and overweight with a lower hazard. None of the body mass index categories as independently
Neyra, Javier A; Leaf, David E
Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a complex systemic syndrome associated with high morbidity and mortality. Among critically ill patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), the incidence of AKI is as high as 50% and is associated with dismal outcomes. Thus, the development and validation of clinical risk prediction tools that accurately identify patients at high risk for AKI in the ICU is of paramount importance. We provide a comprehensive review of 3 clinical risk prediction tools that have been developed for incident AKI occurring in the first few hours or days following admission to the ICU. We found substantial heterogeneity among the clinical variables that were examined and included as significant predictors of AKI in the final models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves was ∼0.8 for all 3 models, indicating satisfactory model performance, though positive predictive values ranged from only 23 to 38%. Hence, further research is needed to develop more accurate and reproducible clinical risk prediction tools. Strategies for improved assessment of AKI susceptibility in the ICU include the incorporation of dynamic (time-varying) clinical parameters, as well as biomarker, functional, imaging, and genomic data. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.
Llompart-Pou, J A; Chico-Fernández, M; Sánchez-Casado, M; Salaberria-Udabe, R; Carbayo-Górriz, C; Guerrero-López, F; González-Robledo, J; Ballesteros-Sanz, M Á; Herrán-Monge, R; Servià-Goixart, L; León-López, R; Val-Jordán, E
We evaluated the predictive ability of mechanism, Glasgow coma scale, age and arterial pressure (MGAP), Glasgow coma scale, age and systolic blood pressure (GAP), and triage-revised trauma Score (T-RTS) scores in patients from the Spanish trauma ICU registry using the trauma and injury severity score (TRISS) as a reference standard. Patients admitted for traumatic disease in the participating ICU were included. Quantitative data were reported as median [interquartile range (IQR), categorical data as number (percentage)]. Comparisons between groups with quantitative variables and categorical variables were performed using Student's T Test and Chi Square Test, respectively. We performed receiving operating curves (ROC) and evaluated the area under the curve (AUC) with its 95 % confidence interval (CI). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative predictive values and accuracy were evaluated in all the scores. A value of p < 0.05 was considered significant. The final sample included 1361 trauma ICU patients. Median age was 45 (30-61) years. 1092 patients (80.3 %) were male. Median ISS was 18 (13-26) and median T-RTS was 11 (10-12). Median GAP was 20 (15-22) and median MGAP 24 (20-27). Observed mortality was 17.7 % whilst predicted mortality using TRISS was 16.9 %. The AUC in the scores evaluated was: TRISS 0.897 (95 % CI 0.876-0.918), MGAP 0.860 (95 % CI 0.835-0.886), GAP 0.849 (95 % CI 0.823-0.876) and T-RTS 0.796 (95 % CI 0.762-0.830). Both MGAP and GAP scores performed better than the T-RTS in the prediction of hospital mortality in Spanish trauma ICU patients. Since these are easy-to-perform scores, they should be incorporated in clinical practice as a triaging tool.
It has been a long, litigious road from Heman Sweatt, an African-American mail carrier who wanted to attend the prestigious, all-White law school at the University of Texas at Austin in 1946, to Abigail Fisher, a White high school student who failed to win undergraduate admission to the same university a half-century later. Depending on what the…
Whitfield, Malcolm D; Gillett, Michael; Holmes, Michael; Ogden, Elaine
The brief for this study was to produce a practical, evidence based, financial planning tool, which could be used to present an economic argument for funding a public health-based prevention programme in coronary heart disease (CHD) related illness on the same basis as treatment interventions. To explore the possibility of using multivariate risk prediction equations, derived from the Framingham and other studies, to estimate how many people in a population are likely to be admitted to hospital in the next 5-10 years with cardio vascular disease (CVD) related events such as heart attacks, strokes, heart failure and kidney disease. To estimate the potential financial impact of reductions in hospital admissions, on an 'invest to save' basis, if primary care trusts (PCTs) were to invest in public health based interventions to reduce cardiovascular risk at a population level. The populations of five UK PCTs were entered into a spreadsheet based decision tree model, in terms of age and sex (this equated to around 620,000 adults). An estimation was made to determine how many people, in each age group, were likely to be diabetic. Population risk factors such as smoking rates, mean body mass index (BMI), mean total cholesterol and mean systolic blood pressure were entered by age group. The spreadsheet then used a variant of the Framingham equation to calculate how many non-diabetic people in each age group were likely to have a heart attack or stroke in the next 5 years. In addition heart failure and dialysis admission rates were estimated based upon risk factors for incidence. The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engines 56 and 60 were used to calculate the risk of CHD and stroke, respectively, in people with type 2 diabetes. The spreadsheet deducted the number of people likely to die before reaching hospital and produced a predicted number of hospital admissions for each category over a 5-year period. The final part of the calculation attached a
Shimizu, Helena Eri; Couto, Djalma Ticiani; Merchán-Hamann, Edgar; Branco, Anadergh Barbosa
This study analyzed occupational health hazards for Intensive Care Unit (ICU) nurses and nursing technicians, comparing differences in the number and types of hazards which occur at the beginning and end of their careers. A descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out with 26 nurses and 96 nursing technicians from a public hospital in the Federal District, Brazil. A Likert-type work-related symptom scale (WRSS) was used to evaluate the presence of physical, psychological, and social risks. Data were analyzed with the use of the SPSS, version 12.0, and the Kruskal-Wallis test for statistical significance and differences in occupational health hazards at the beginning and at the end of the workers' careers. As a workplace, ICUs can cause work health hazards, mostly physical, to nurses and nursing technicians due to the frequent use of physical energy and strength to provide care, while psychological and social hazards occur to a lesser degree. PMID:21994814
Pretz, Jean E.; Kaufman, James C.
College admissions decisions have traditionally focused on high school academic performance and standardized test scores. An ongoing debate is the validity of these measures for predicting success in college; part of this debate includes how success is defined. One potential way of defining college success is a student's creative accomplishments.…
Despite retention being a significant focus of higher education research, graduation rates remain of concern. Increased numbers of students are advancing to college bringing with them a wider range of abilities, attributes, and characteristics. There is much we know about what predicts success for these students but our knowledge is far from…
Donovan, Anne L; Aldrich, J Matthew; Gross, A Kendall; Barchas, Denise M; Thornton, Kevin C; Schell-Chaple, Hildy M; Gropper, Michael A; Lipshutz, Angela K M
We describe the importance of interprofessional care in modern critical care medicine. This review highlights the essential roles played by specific members of the interprofessional care team, including patients and family members, and discusses quality improvement initiatives that require interprofessional collaboration for success. Studies were identified through MEDLINE search using a variety of search phrases related to interprofessional care, critical care provider types, and quality improvement initiatives. Additional articles were identified through a review of the reference lists of identified articles. Original articles, review articles, and systematic reviews were considered. Manuscripts were selected for inclusion based on expert opinion of well-designed or key studies and review articles. "Interprofessional care" refers to care provided by a team of healthcare professionals with overlapping expertise and an appreciation for the unique contribution of other team members as partners in achieving a common goal. A robust body of data supports improvement in patient-level outcomes when care is provided by an interprofessional team. Critical care nurses, advanced practice providers, pharmacists, respiratory care practitioners, rehabilitation specialists, dieticians, social workers, case managers, spiritual care providers, intensivists, and nonintensivist physicians each provide unique expertise and perspectives to patient care, and therefore play an important role in a team that must address the diverse needs of patients and families in the ICU. Engaging patients and families as partners in their healthcare is also critical. Many important ICU quality improvement initiatives require an interprofessional approach, including Awakening and Breathing Coordination, Delirium, Early Exercise/Mobility, and Family Empowerment bundle implementation, interprofessional rounding practices, unit-based quality improvement initiatives, Patient and Family Advisory Councils
Sbiti-Rohr, Diana; Kutz, Alexander; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Thomann, Robert; Zimmerli, Werner; Hoess, Claus; Henzen, Christoph; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp
Objective To investigate the accuracy of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) to predict mortality and adverse clinical outcomes for patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) compared to standard risk scores such as the pneumonia severity index (PSI) and CURB-65. Design Secondary analysis of patients included in a previous randomised-controlled trial with a median follow-up of 6.1 years. Settings Patients with CAP included on admission to the emergency departments (ED) of 6 tertiary care hospitals in Switzerland. Participants A total of 925 patients with confirmed CAP were included. NEWS, PSI and CURB-65 scores were calculated on admission to the ED based on admission data. Main outcome measure Our primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 6 years of follow-up. Secondary outcomes were adverse clinical outcome defined as intensive care unit (ICU) admission, empyema and unplanned hospital readmission all occurring within 30 days after admission. We used regression models to study associations of baseline risk scores and outcomes with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) as a measure of discrimination. Results 6-year overall mortality was 45.1% (n=417) with a stepwise increase with higher NEWS categories. For 30 day and 6-year mortality prediction, NEWS showed only low discrimination (AUC 0.65 and 0.60) inferior compared to PSI and CURB-65. For prediction of ICU admission, NEWS showed moderate discrimination (AUC 0.73) and improved the prognostic accuracy of a regression model, including PSI (AUC from 0.66 to 0.74, p=0.001) and CURB-65 (AUC from 0.64 to 0.73, p=0.015). NEWS was also superior to PSI and CURB-65 for prediction of empyema, but did not well predict rehospitalisation. Conclusions NEWS provides additional prognostic information with regard to risk of ICU admission and complications and thereby improves traditional clinical-risk scores in the management of patients with CAP in the ED setting. Trial registration number
Sbiti-Rohr, Diana; Kutz, Alexander; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Thomann, Robert; Zimmerli, Werner; Hoess, Claus; Henzen, Christoph; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp
To investigate the accuracy of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) to predict mortality and adverse clinical outcomes for patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) compared to standard risk scores such as the pneumonia severity index (PSI) and CURB-65. Secondary analysis of patients included in a previous randomised-controlled trial with a median follow-up of 6.1 years. Patients with CAP included on admission to the emergency departments (ED) of 6 tertiary care hospitals in Switzerland. A total of 925 patients with confirmed CAP were included. NEWS, PSI and CURB-65 scores were calculated on admission to the ED based on admission data. Our primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 6 years of follow-up. Secondary outcomes were adverse clinical outcome defined as intensive care unit (ICU) admission, empyema and unplanned hospital readmission all occurring within 30 days after admission. We used regression models to study associations of baseline risk scores and outcomes with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) as a measure of discrimination. 6-year overall mortality was 45.1% (n=417) with a stepwise increase with higher NEWS categories. For 30 day and 6-year mortality prediction, NEWS showed only low discrimination (AUC 0.65 and 0.60) inferior compared to PSI and CURB-65. For prediction of ICU admission, NEWS showed moderate discrimination (AUC 0.73) and improved the prognostic accuracy of a regression model, including PSI (AUC from 0.66 to 0.74, p=0.001) and CURB-65 (AUC from 0.64 to 0.73, p=0.015). NEWS was also superior to PSI and CURB-65 for prediction of empyema, but did not well predict rehospitalisation. NEWS provides additional prognostic information with regard to risk of ICU admission and complications and thereby improves traditional clinical-risk scores in the management of patients with CAP in the ED setting. ISRCTN95122877; Post-results. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not
Probst, Danielle R; Gustin, Jillian L; Goodman, Lauren F; Lorenz, Amanda; Wells-Di Gregorio, Sharla M
Family members of patients who die in an ICU are at increased risk of psychological sequelae compared to those who experience a death in hospice. This study explored differences in rates and levels of complicated grief (CG), posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and depression between family members of patients who died in an ICU versus a non-ICU hospital setting. Differences in family members' most distressing experiences at the patient's end of life were also explored. The study was an observational cohort. Subjects were next of kin of 121 patients who died at a large, Midwestern academic hospital; 77 died in the ICU. Family members completed measures of CG, PTSD, depression, and end-of-life experiences. Participants were primarily Caucasian (93%, N = 111), female (81%, N = 98), spouses (60%, N = 73) of the decedent, and were an average of nine months post-bereavement. Forty percent of family members met the Inventory of Complicated Grief CG cut-off, 31% met the Impact of Events Scale-Revised PTSD cut-off, and 51% met the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale depression cut-off. There were no significant differences in rates or levels of CG, PTSD, or depressive symptoms reported by family members between hospital settings. Several distressing experiences were ranked highly by both groups, but each setting presented unique distressing experiences for family members. Psychological distress of family members did not differ by hospital setting, but the most distressing experiences encountered at end of life in each setting highlight potentially unique interventions to reduce distress post-bereavement for family members.
Introduction Long-term outcomes of elderly patients after medical ICU care are little known. The aim of the study was to evaluate functional status and quality of life of elderly patients 12 months after discharge from a medical ICU. Methods We prospectively studied 112/230 healthy elderly patients (≥65 years surviving at least 12 months after ICU discharge) with full functional autonomy without cognitive impairment prior to ICU entry. The main diagnoses at admission using the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III (APACHE III) classification diagnosis and length of ICU stay and ICU scores (APACHE II, Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and OMEGA) at admission and discharge were collected. Comprehensive geriatric assessment included the presence of the main geriatric syndromes and the application of Lawton, Barthel, and Charlson Indexes and Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline to evaluate functionality, comorbidity and cognitive status, respectively. The EuroQol-5D assessed quality of life. Data were collected at baseline, during ICU and ward stay and 3, 6 and 12 months after hospital discharge. Paired or unpaired T-tests compared differences between groups (continuous variables), whereas the chi-square and Fisher exact tests were used for comparing dichotomous variables. For variables significant (P ≤ 0.1) on univariate analysis, a forward multiple regression analysis was performed. Results Only 48.9% of patients (mean age: 73.4 ± 5.5 years) were alive 12 months after discharge showing a significant decrease in functional autonomy (Lawton and Barthel Indexes) and quality of life (EuroQol-5D) compared to baseline status (P < 0.001, all). Multivariate analysis showed a higher Barthel Index and EQ-5D vas at hospital discharge to be associated factors of full functional recovery (P < 0.01, both). Thus, in patients with a Barthel Index ≥ 60 or EQ-5D vas ≥40 at discharge the hazard ratio for full functional recovery was 4.04 (95
Zhu, Zhecheng; Hen, Bee Hoon; Teow, Kiok Liang
The intensive care unit (ICU) in a hospital caters for critically ill patients. The number of the ICU beds has a direct impact on many aspects of hospital performance. Lack of the ICU beds may cause ambulance diversion and surgery cancellation, while an excess of ICU beds may cause a waste of resources. This paper aims to develop a discrete event simulation (DES) model to help the healthcare service providers determine the proper ICU bed capacity which strikes the balance between service level and cost effectiveness. The DES model is developed to reflect the complex patient flow of the ICU system. Actual operational data, including emergency arrivals, elective arrivals and length of stay, are directly fed into the DES model to capture the variations in the system. The DES model is validated by open box test and black box test. The validated model is used to test two what-if scenarios which the healthcare service providers are interested in: the proper number of the ICU beds in service to meet the target rejection rate and the extra ICU beds in service needed to meet the demand growth. A 12-month period of actual operational data was collected from an ICU department with 13 ICU beds in service. Comparison between the simulation results and the actual situation shows that the DES model accurately captures the variations in the system, and the DES model is flexible to simulate various what-if scenarios. DES helps the healthcare service providers describe the current situation, and simulate the what-if scenarios for future planning.
Zimmermann, Judith; von Davier, Alina; Heinimann, Hans Rudolf
Purpose: Graduate admission has become a critical process for quality assurance in tertiary education. Hitherto, most research has investigated the validity of admissions instruments. However, surprisingly little work has been conducted on the overall organization of admission, which often remains "informal, ad hoc, and lacking in…
Haji, Kavi; Haji, Darsim; Canty, David J; Royse, Alistair G; Tharmaraj, Dhaksha; Azraee, Meor; Hopkins, Lynda; Royse, Collin F
Limited transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) and lung ultrasound increasingly is performed in the intensive care unit (ICU), though used in a goal-directed rather than routine manner. Prospective observational study. Tertiary ICU. Ninety-three critically ill participants within 24 hours of admission to ICU. A treating intensivist documented a clinical diagnosis and management plan before and after combined limited TTE and lung ultrasound. Ultrasound was performed by an independent intensivist and checked for accuracy offline by a second reviewer. Ultrasound images were interpretable in 99%, with good interobserver agreement. The hemodynamic diagnosis was altered in 66% of participants, including new (14%) or altered (25%) abnormal states or exclusion of clinically diagnosed abnormal state (27%). Valve pathology of at least moderate severity was diagnosed for mitral regurgitation (7%), aortic stenosis (1%), aortic stenosis and mitral regurgitation (1%), tricuspid regurgitation (3%), and 1 case of mitral regurgitation was excluded. Lung pathology diagnosis was changed in 58% of participants including consolidation (13%), interstitial syndrome (4%), and pleural effusion (23%), and exclusion of clinically diagnosed consolidation (6%), interstitial syndrome (3%), and pleural effusion (9%). Management changed in 65% of participants including increased (12%) or decreased (23%) fluid therapy, initiation (10%), changing (6%) or cessation (9%) of inotropic, vasoactive or diuretic drugs, non-invasive ventilation (3%), and pleural drainage (2%). Routine screening of patients with combined limited TTE and lung ultrasound on admission to ICU is feasible and frequently alters diagnosis and management. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Lown, Maris A.
Predicting success on the NCLEX-RN is of paramount importance to nursing programs as they are held accountable for this outcome by accrediting agencies and by boards of nursing. This action research study examined the relationship between the NET admission test, anatomy and physiology grades, grade point average (GPA) on admission to the program…
Silverman, Bernie I.; And Others
Cleary's and Thorndike's definition of bias in college admissions criteria (ACT scores and high school percentile rank) were examined for black, white, and Jewish students. Use of the admissions criteria tended to overpredict blacks' performance, accurately predict whites' performance, and underpredict that of Jews. In light of Cleary's…
Coates, Hamish; Friedman, Tim
This paper reports findings from the first national Australian study of the predictive validity of the Special Tertiary Admissions Test (STAT). Background on tertiary admissions procedures in Australia is presented, followed by information on STAT and the research methods. The results affirm that STAT, through the provision of baseline and…
Cockburn, Sally; Hewitt, Gordon; Kelly, Timothy
This paper presents the results of a model that simulates the effects of varying preferential admissions policies on the academic profile of a set of 35 small liberal arts colleges. An underlying assumption is that all schools in the set use the same ratio of preferential to non-preferential admissions. The model predicts that even drastic changes…
Ebrahim, Shanil; Singh, Simran; Parshuram, Christopher S
To describe satisfaction, involvement, presence, and preferences of parents following their child's admission to an intensive care unit (ICU). A survey, administered 1 month after their child's ICU admission, described perceptions of parental satisfaction with their interaction with healthcare providers, their presence during resuscitation, involvement in treatment decision-making, and preferences if events were to be re-enacted. One hundred three parents of 91 patients were enrolled; 64 primary parents (70%) completed the survey at 1 month. The mean (SD) satisfaction rating was 87.6 (±14.8) and involvement rating was 70.2 (±34.4) on a scale from 0 (not satisfied/involved) to 100 (completely satisfied/involved). There were no differences in satisfaction (P = .46), involvement (P = .69) and change in preferences (P = .97) between parents who were present and not present. After adjusting for child's baseline illness, receipt of more ICU therapies was associated with worse parental satisfaction (P = .03). Twenty-four (38%) parents reported that if events were repeated, they would have changed their preferences. Overall, parental satisfaction ratings were high, lower in parents of children receiving more ICU therapies, and not associated with presence during resuscitation. These data contrast the American Heart Association's recommendation and suggestion of benefit from parental presence during periods of intensive therapies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Davis, Adrienne L; Wales, Paul W; Malik, Tahira; Stephens, Derek; Razik, Fathima; Schuh, Suzanne
To examine the association between in-hospital mortality and the BIG (composed of the base deficit [B], International normalized ratio [I], Glasgow Coma Scale [G]) score measured on arrival to the emergency department in pediatric blunt trauma patients, adjusted for pre-hospital intubation, volume administration, and presence of hypotension and head injury. We also examined the association between the BIG score and mortality in patients requiring admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). A retrospective 2001-2012 trauma database review of patients with blunt trauma ≤ 17 years old with an Injury Severity score ≥ 12. Charts were reviewed for in-hospital mortality, components of the BIG score upon arrival to the emergency department, prehospital intubation, crystalloids ≥ 20 mL/kg, presence of hypotension, head injury, and disposition. 50/621 (8%) of the study patients died. Independent mortality predictors were the BIG score (OR 11, 95% CI 6-25), prior fluid bolus (OR 3, 95% CI 1.3-9), and prior intubation (OR 8, 95% CI 2-40). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.95 (CI 0.93-0.98), with the optimal BIG cutoff of 16. With BIG <16, death rate was 3/496 (0.006, 95% CI 0.001-0.007) vs 47/125 (0.38, 95% CI 0.15-0.7) with BIG ≥ 16, (P < .0001). In patients requiring admission to the ICU, the BIG score remained predictive of mortality (OR 14.3, 95% CI 7.3-32, P < .0001). The BIG score accurately predicts mortality in a population of North American pediatric patients with blunt trauma independent of pre-hospital interventions, presence of head injury, and hypotension, and identifies children with a high probability of survival (BIG <16). The BIG score is also associated with mortality in pediatric patients with trauma requiring admission to the ICU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Wijdicks, Eelco F M; Kramer, Andrew A; Rohs, Thomas; Hanna, Susan; Sadaka, Farid; O'Brien, Jacklyn; Bible, Shonna; Dickess, Stacy M; Foss, Michelle
Impaired consciousness has been incorporated in prediction models that are used in the ICU. The Glasgow Coma Scale has value but is incomplete and cannot be assessed in intubated patients accurately. The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score may be a better predictor of mortality in critically ill patients. Thirteen ICUs at five U.S. hospitals. One thousand six hundred ninety-five consecutive unselected ICU admissions during a six-month period in 2012. Glasgow Coma Scale and Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score were recorded within 1 hour of admission. Baseline characteristics and physiologic components of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation system, as well as mortality were linked to Glasgow Coma Scale/Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score information. None. We recruited 1,695 critically ill patients, of which 1,645 with complete data could be linked to data in the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation system. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of predicting ICU mortality using the Glasgow Coma Scale was 0.715 (95% CI, 0.663-0.768) and using the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score was 0.742 (95% CI, 0.694-0.790), statistically different (p = 0.001). A similar but nonsignificant difference was found for predicting hospital mortality (p = 0.078). The respiratory and brainstem reflex components of the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score showed a much wider range of mortality than the verbal component of Glasgow Coma Scale. In multivariable models, the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score was more useful than the Glasgow Coma Scale for predicting mortality. The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score might be a better prognostic tool of ICU mortality than the Glasgow Coma Scale in critically ill patients, most likely a result of incorporating brainstem reflexes and respiration into the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score.
Brotfain, Evgeni; Koyfman, Leonid; Toledano, Ronen; Borer, Abraham; Fucs, Lior; Galante, Ori; Frenkel, Amit; Kutz, Ruslan; Klein, Moti
Sepsis and septic shock continue to be syndromes that carry a high mortality rate worldwide. Early aggressive fluid and vasopressor support have resulted in significant improvement in patient outcomes. The prognostic clinical significance of a positive fluid balance in septic intensive care unit (ICU) patients remains undetermined. We collected data from 297 septic patients hospitalized in our general and medical ICUs at Soroka Medical Center between January 2005 and June 2011 and divided the 4 study groups into the following 4 fluid balances: group 1, patients with fluid balance at discharge from ICU (FBD) less than 10 L; group 2, patients with an FBD of 10 to 20 L; group 3, patients with an FBD of 20 to 30 L; and group 4, patients with FBD in excess of 30 L. The ICU and in-hospital mortality rate was also significantly higher in groups 2 to 4 as compared with group 1 (P < .001 for both ICU and in-hospital mortality). The positive cumulative FBD was found to be an independent predictor of ICU mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.06; P < .001; Table 3) and in-hospital mortality (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.03-1.08; P < .001; Table 5) and also to constitute a risk factor for new organ system dysfunction at hospital discharge (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.01-1.013; P < .001; Table 6) in critically ill patients with severe sepsis/septic shock. Although it is a monocentric retrospective study, we suggest that positive cumulative fluid balance is one of the major factors that can predict the clinical outcome of critically ill patients during their ICU stay and after their discharge from the ICU. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Kirchner, G L; Stone, R G; Holm, M B
The relationships among clinical outcomes, academic success, and predictors used to screen applicants for entrance into a Master in Occupational Therapy Program (MOT) were examined. The dependent variables were grade point average in occupational therapy courses (OT-GPA), client therapy outcomes at the clinic, and ratings of MOT students by Level II Fieldwork supervisors. Predictor variables included undergraduate GPA, scores on the Graduate Record Examination (GRE), and an essay. Both undergraduate GPA and scores on the GRE were found to predict OT-GPA. The analytical section of the GRE was also positively correlated with fieldwork supervisors' ratings of students.
Kongsayreepong, Suneerat; Chittawatanarat, Kaweesak; Thawitsri, Thammasak; Chatmongkolchart, Sunisa; Morakul, Sunthiti; Wacharasint, Petch; Chau-In, Waraporn; Poopipatpab, Sujaree; Kusumaphanyo, Chaiyapruk
Surgical intensive care units (SICUs) are special units for critically ill surgical patients both in the pre and postoperative period. There is little aggregated information about surgical patients who are admitted to the Thai surgical ICU. The objective of this report was to describe patient characteristics, outcomes of ICU care, incidence and outcomes of adverse events in the SICU in the participating SICUs. This multi-center, prospective, observational study of nine university-based SICUs was done. All admitted patients with ages >18 years old were included. Information about patient characteristics, underlying medical problems, indication and type of ICU admission, severity score as ASA physical status in operative patients, APACHE II score and SOFA score, adverse events of interest, ventilator days, ICU and 28 days mortality. The association of outcome and predictors was reported by relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI). Statistical significant difference was defined by p<0.05. During April 2011-January 2013 of total cohort time, a total of 4,652 patients from nine university-based SICUs were included in this study. Mode of patient age was 71-75 year old for both sexes. Median (IQR) of APACHE II scores and SOFA scores were 10 (7-10) and 2 (1-5), respectively. Seventy eight percent of patients were postoperative patients and 50% of them were ASA physical status III. The median of ICU stay was 2 (IQR 1-4) days. Each day of ICU increment was associated with increased 1.4 days of a hospital stay. Three percent of survived at discharge were clinically inappropriate discharge resulting in ICU readmission. Sixty-five percent were discharged home after ICU admission. ICU and 28 days mortality was 9.6% and 13.8%. The seven most common adverse events were sepsis (19.5%), acute kidney injury (AKI) (16.9%), new cardiac arrhythmias (6.2%), acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) (5.8%), cardiac arrest (4.9%), delirium (3.5%) and reintubation within 72
Morgan, D J; Ho, K M; Kolybaba, M L; Ong, Y J
Increasing mortality for patients admitted to hospitals during the weekend is a contentious but well described phenomenon. However, it remains uncertain whether adverse outcomes, including prolonged hospital length-of-stay (LOS), may also occur after patients undergoing major planned surgery are admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) out-of-office-hours, either during weeknights (after 18:00) or on weekends. All planned surgical admissions requiring admission to one of 183 ICUs across Australia and New Zealand between 2006 and 2016 were included in this retrospective population-based cohort study. Primary outcomes were hospital LOS and hospital mortality. Of the total 504 713 planned postoperative ICU admissions, 33.6% occurred during out-of-office-hours. After adjusting for available risk factors, out-of-office-hours ICU admissions were associated with a significant increase in hospital LOS [+2.6 days, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.5-2.6], mortality [odd ratio (OR) 1.5, 95%CI 1.4-1.6], and a reduced chance of being directly discharged home (OR 0.8, 95%CI 0.8-0.8). The strongest association for adverse outcomes occurred with weekend ICU admissions (hospital LOS: +3.0 days, 95%CI 3.2-3.6; hospital mortality: OR 1.7, 95%CI 1.6-1.8). Clustering of adverse outcomes by hospitals was not observed in the generalised estimating equation analyses. Despite a greater clinical staff availability and higher monitoring levels, planned surgery requiring anticipated out-of-office-hours ICU admission was associated with a prolonged hospital LOS, reduced discharge directly home, and increased mortality compared with in-office-hours admissions. Our findings have potential clinical, economic and health policy implications on how complex planned surgery should be planned and managed. Copyright © 2018 British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved.
Parreco, Joshua; Hidalgo, Antonio; Parks, Jonathan J; Kozol, Robert; Rattan, Rishi
Early identification of critically ill patients who will require prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) has proven to be difficult. The purpose of this study was to use machine learning to identify patients at risk for PMV and tracheostomy placement. The Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care III database was queried for all intensive care unit (ICU) stays with mechanical ventilation. PMV was defined as ventilation >7 d. Classifiers with a gradient-boosted decision trees algorithm were created for the outcomes of PMV and tracheostomy placement. The variables used were six different severity-of-illness scores calculated on the first day of ICU admission including their components and 30 comorbidities. Mean receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated for the outcomes, and variable importance was quantified. There were 20,262 ICU stays identified. PMV was required in 13.6%, and tracheostomy was performed in 6.6% of patients. The classifier for predicting PMV was able to achieve a mean area under the curve (AUC) of 0.820 ± 0.016, and tracheostomy was predicted with an AUC of 0.830 ± 0.011. There were 60.7% patients admitted to a surgical ICU, and the classifiers for these patients predicted PMV with an AUC of 0.852 ± 0.017 and tracheostomy with an AUC of 0.869 ± 0.015. The variable with the highest importance for predicting PMV was the logistic organ dysfunction score pulmonary component (13%), and the most important comorbidity in predicting tracheostomy was cardiac arrhythmia (12%). This study demonstrates the use of artificial intelligence through machine-learning classifiers for the early identification of patients at risk for PMV and tracheostomy. Application of these identification techniques could lead to improved outcomes by allowing for early intervention. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Alayed, Abdulrahman S; Lööf, Helena; Johansson, Unn-Britt
The purpose of this paper is to examine nurses' attitudes towards safety culture in six Saudi Arabian intensive care units (ICUs). The study is descriptive with a cross-sectional design. The Safety Attitude Questionnaire (SAQ)-ICU version was distributed and 216 completed questionnaires were returned. The findings provide a basis for further research on Saudi Arabian ICU safety culture. This study showed that the SAQ-ICU can be used to measure safety climate to identify areas for improvement according to nurse attitudes and perceptions. Findings indicate that ICU safety culture is an important issue that hospital managers should prioritise. The SAQ-ICU questionnaire, used to measure safety climate in Saudi Arabian ICUs, identifies service strengths and improvement areas according to attitudes and perceptions. To the knowledge, this is the first study to use SAQ to examine nurses' safety culture attitudes in Saudi Arabian ICUs. The present findings provide a baseline and further details about Saudi Arabian ICU safety. Study participants represented nine nationalities, indicating the nursing workforce's diversity, which is expected to continue in the future. Such a nursing cultural heterogeneity calls for further studies to examine and evaluate attitudes and values to improve ICU safety culture.
Peltonen, Laura-Maria; McCallum, Louise; Siirala, Eriikka; Haataja, Marjaana; Lundgrén-Laine, Heljä; Salanterä, Sanna; Lin, Frances
The literature shows that delayed admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and discharge delays from the ICU are associated with increased adverse events and higher costs. Identifying factors related to delays will provide information to practice improvements, which contribute to better patient outcomes. The aim of this integrative review was to explore the incidence of patients' admission and discharge delays in critical care and to identify organisational factors associated with these delays. Seven studies were included. The major findings are as follows: (1) explanatory research about discharge delays is scarce and one study on admission delays was found, (2) delays are a common problem mostly due to organisational factors, occurring in 38% of admissions and 22–67% of discharges, and (3) redesigning care processes by improving information management and coordination between units and interdisciplinary teams could reduce discharge delays. In conclusion, patient outcomes can be improved through efficient and safe care processes. More exploratory research is needed to identify factors that contribute to admission and discharge delays to provide evidence for clinical practice improvements. Shortening delays requires an interdisciplinary and multifaceted approach to the whole patient flow process. Conclusions should be made with caution due to the limited number of articles included in this review. PMID:26558286
Selim, Abeer; Kandeel, Nahed; Elokl, Mohamed; Khater, Mohamed Shawky; Saleh, Ashraf Nabil; Bustami, Rami; Ely, E Wesley
Accurate diagnosis for Arabic speaking critically ill patients suffering from delirium is limited by the need for a valid/reliable translation of a standardized delirium instrument such as the Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU (CAM-ICU). To determine the validity and reliability of the Arabic version of the CAM-ICU. A prospective cohort study design was used to conduct the current study. Data collection took place in Geriatric, Emergency and Surgical intensive care units. Fifty-eight adult patients met the inclusion criteria and participated in the study. Among the participants 22(38%) patients were on mechanical ventilation. After translating the CAM-ICU into Arabic language, the Arabic CAM-ICU was administered by two well-trained critical care nurses and compared with reference standard assessments by delirium experts using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition, Text Revision (DSM -IV-TR), along with assessment of severity of illness using Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA). Concurrent validity was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV) for the two Arabic CAM-ICU raters, where calculations were based on considering the DSM-IV-TR criterion as the reference standard. The convergent validity of the Arabic CAM-ICU was explored by comparing the Arabic CAM-ICU ratings and the total score of SOFA (severity of illness) and MMSE (cognitive impairment). A total of 58 ICU patients were included, of whom 27 (47%) were diagnosed with delirium during their ICU stay via DSM-IV criteria. Interrater reliability for the Arabic CAM-ICU, overall and for mechanically ventilated patients assessed using Cohen's kappa (κ) were 0.82 and 1, respectively, p < 0.001. The sensitivities (95% CI) for the two critical care nurses when using the Arabic CAM-ICU compared with the reference standard were 81% (60%-93%) and 85% (65%-95%), respectively, whereas specificity (95% CI
Mittal, Manoj K; Rabinstein, Alejandro A; Hocker, Sara E; Pittock, Sean J; Wijdicks, Eelco F M; McKeon, Andrew
To report the clinical and laboratory characteristics, clinical courses, and outcomes of Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, ICU-managed autoimmune encephalitis patients (January 1st 2003-December 31st 2012). Based on medical record review, twenty-five patients were assigned to Group 1 (had ≥1 of classic autoimmune encephalitis-specific IgGs, n = 13) or Group 2 (had ≥3 other characteristics supporting autoimmunity, n = 12). Median admission age was 47 years (range 22-88); 17 were women. Initial symptoms included ≥1 of subacute confusion or cognitive decline, 13; seizures, 12; craniocervical pain, 5; and personality change, 4. Thirteen Group 1 patients were seropositive for ≥1 of VGKC-complex-IgG (6; including Lgi1-IgG in 2), NMDA-R-IgG (4), AMPA-R-IgG (1), ANNA-1 (1), Ma1/Ma2 antibody (1), and PCA-1 (1). Twelve Group 2 patients had ≥3 other findings supportive of an autoimmune diagnosis (median 4; range 3-5): ≥1 other antibody type detected, 9; an inflammatory CSF, 8; ≥1 coexisting autoimmune disease, 7; an immunotherapy response, 7; limbic encephalitic MRI changes, 5; a paraneoplastic cause, 4; and diagnostic neuropathological findings, 2. Among 11 patients ICU-managed for ≥4 days, neurological improvements were attributable to corticosteroids (5/7 treated), plasmapheresis (3/7), or rituximab (1/3). At last follow-up, 10 patients had died. Of the remaining 15 patients, 6 (24%) had mild or no disability, 3 (12%) had moderate cognitive problems, and 6 (24%) had dementia (1 was bed bound). Median modified Rankin score at last follow-up was 3 (range 0-6). Good outcomes may occur in ICU-managed autoimmune encephalitis patients. Clinical and testing characteristics are diverse. Comprehensive diagnostics should be pursued to facilitate timely treatment.
Prendergast, Virginia; Hagell, Peter; Hallberg, Ingalill Rahm
Poor oral hygiene has been associated with ventilator-acquired pneumonia. Yet providing oral care for intubated patients is problematic. Furthermore, concerns that oral care could raise intracranial pressure (ICP) may cause nurses to use foam swabs to provide oral hygiene rather than tooth brushing as recommended by the American Association of Critical-Care Nurses. Evidence is needed to supp