Why Does Working Memory Capacity Predict Variation in Reading Comprehension? On the Influence of Mind Wandering and Executive Attention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McVay, Jennifer C.; Kane, Michael J.

2012-01-01

Some people are better readers than others, and this variation in comprehension ability is predicted by measures of working memory capacity (WMC). The primary goal of this study was to investigate the mediating role of mind-wandering experiences in the association between WMC and normal individual differences in reading comprehension, as predicted…

A Comparison of Individual-Level and Community-Level Predictors of Marijuana and Cocaine Use among a Sample of Newly Arrested Juvenile Offenders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Childs, Kristina; Dembo, Richard; Belenko, Steven; Wareham, Jennifer; Schmeidler, James

2011-01-01

Variations in drug use have been found across individual-level factors and community characteristics, and by type of drug used. Relatively little research, however, has examined this variation among juvenile offenders. Based on a sample of 924 newly arrested juvenile offenders, two multilevel logistic regression models predicting marijuana test…

Variation in perceptions of physical dominance and trustworthiness predicts individual differences in the effect of relationship context on women's preferences for masculine pitch in men's voices.

PubMed

Vukovic, Jovana; Jones, Benedict C; Feinberg, David R; Debruine, Lisa M; Smith, Finlay G; Welling, Lisa L M; Little, Anthony C

2011-02-01

Several studies have found that women tend to demonstrate stronger preferences for masculine men as short-term partners than as long-term partners, though there is considerable variation among women in the magnitude of this effect. One possible source of this variation is individual differences in the extent to which women perceive masculine men to possess antisocial traits that are less costly in short-term relationships than in long-term relationships. Consistent with this proposal, here we show that the extent to which women report stronger preferences for men with low (i.e., masculine) voice pitch as short-term partners than as long-term partners is associated with the extent to which they attribute physical dominance and low trustworthiness to these masculine voices. Thus, our findings suggest that variation in the extent to which women attribute negative personality characteristics to masculine men predicts individual differences in the magnitude of the effect of relationship context on women's masculinity preferences, highlighting the importance of perceived personality attributions for individual differences in women's judgments of men's vocal attractiveness and, potentially, their mate preferences. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Environment-dependence of behavioural consistency in adult male European green lizards (Lacerta viridis)

PubMed Central

Urszán, Tamás János; Bajer, Katalin; Molnár, Orsolya; Garamszegi, László Zsolt; Herczeg, Gábor

2017-01-01

Understanding the background mechanisms affecting the emergence and maintenance of consistent between-individual variation within population in single (animal personality) or across multiple (behavioural syndrome) behaviours has key importance. State-dependence theory suggests that behaviour is ‘anchored’ to individual state (e.g. body condition, gender, age) and behavioural consistency emerges through behavioural-state feedbacks. A number of relevant state variables are labile (e.g. body condition, physiological performance) and expected to be affected by short-term environmental change. Yet, whether short-term environmental shifts affect behavioural consistency during adulthood remains questionable. Here, by employing a full-factorial laboratory experiment, we explored if quantity of food (low vs. high) and time available for thermoregulation (3h vs. 10h per day) had an effect on activity and risk-taking of reproductive adult male European green lizards (Lacerta viridis). We focussed on different components of behavioural variation: (i) strength of behavioural consistency (repeatability for animal personality; between-individual correlation for behavioural syndrome), (ii) behavioural type (individual mean behaviour) and (iii) behavioural predictability (within-individual behavioural variation). Activity was repeatable in all treatments. Risk-taking was repeatable only in the low basking treatments. We found significant between-individual correlation only in the low food × long basking time group. The treatments did not affect behavioural type, but affected behavioural predictability. Activity predictability was higher in the short basking treatment, where it also decreased with size (≈ age). Risk-taking predictability in the short basking treatment increased with size under food limitation, but decreased when food supply was high. We conclude that short-term environmental change can alter various components of behavioural consistency. The effect could be detected in the presence/absence patterns of animal personality and behavioural syndrome and the level of individual behavioural predictability, but not in behavioural type. PMID:29112964

Individually assessed boldness predicts Perca fluviatilis behaviour in shoals, but is not associated with the capture order or angling method.

PubMed

Kekäläinen, J; Podgorniak, T; Puolakka, T; Hyvärinen, P; Vainikka, A

2014-11-01

Selectivity of recreational angling on fish behaviour was studied by examining whether capture order or lure type (natural v. artificial bait) in ice-fishing could explain behavioural variation among perch Perca fluviatilis individuals. It was also tested if individually assessed personality predicts fish behaviour in groups, in the presence of natural predators. Perca fluviatilis showed individually repeatable behaviour both in individual and in group tests. Capture order, capture method, condition factor or past growth rate did not explain variation in individual behaviour. Individually determined boldness as well as fish size, however, were positively associated with first entrance to the predator zone (i.e. initial risk taking) in group behaviour tests. Individually determined boldness also explained long-term activity and total time spent in the vicinity of predators in the group. These findings suggest that individual and laboratory-based boldness tests predict boldness of P. fluviatilis in also ecologically relevant conditions, i.e. in shoals and in the presence of natural predators. The present results, however, also indicate that the above-mentioned two angling methods may not be selective for certain behavioural types in comparison to each other. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Individual stress vulnerability is predicted by short-term memory and AMPA receptor subunit ratio in the hippocampus.

PubMed

Schmidt, Mathias V; Trümbach, Dietrich; Weber, Peter; Wagner, Klaus; Scharf, Sebastian H; Liebl, Claudia; Datson, Nicole; Namendorf, Christian; Gerlach, Tamara; Kühne, Claudia; Uhr, Manfred; Deussing, Jan M; Wurst, Wolfgang; Binder, Elisabeth B; Holsboer, Florian; Müller, Marianne B

2010-12-15

Increased vulnerability to aversive experiences is one of the main risk factors for stress-related psychiatric disorders as major depression. However, the molecular bases of vulnerability, on the one hand, and stress resilience, on the other hand, are still not understood. Increasing clinical and preclinical evidence suggests a central involvement of the glutamatergic system in the pathogenesis of major depression. Using a mouse paradigm, modeling increased stress vulnerability and depression-like symptoms in a genetically diverse outbred strain, and we tested the hypothesis that differences in AMPA receptor function may be linked to individual variations in stress vulnerability. Vulnerable and resilient animals differed significantly in their dorsal hippocampal AMPA receptor expression and AMPA receptor binding. Treatment with an AMPA receptor potentiator during the stress exposure prevented the lasting effects of chronic social stress exposure on physiological, neuroendocrine, and behavioral parameters. In addition, spatial short-term memory, an AMPA receptor-dependent behavior, was found to be predictive of individual stress vulnerability and response to AMPA potentiator treatment. Finally, we provide evidence that genetic variations in the AMPA receptor subunit GluR1 are linked to the vulnerable phenotype. Therefore, we propose genetic variations in the AMPA receptor system to shape individual stress vulnerability. Those individual differences can be predicted by the assessment of short-term memory, thereby opening up the possibility for a specific treatment by enhancing AMPA receptor function.

Can traits predict individual growth performance? A test in a hyperdiverse tropical forest.

PubMed

Poorter, Lourens; Castilho, Carolina V; Schietti, Juliana; Oliveira, Rafael S; Costa, Flávia R C

2018-07-01

The functional trait approach has, as a central tenet, that plant traits are functional and shape individual performance, but this has rarely been tested in the field. Here, we tested the individual-based trait approach in a hyperdiverse Amazonian tropical rainforest and evaluated intraspecific variation in trait values, plant strategies at the individual level, and whether traits are functional and predict individual performance. We evaluated > 1300 tree saplings belonging to > 383 species, measured 25 traits related to growth and defense, and evaluated the effects of environmental conditions, plant size, and traits on stem growth. A total of 44% of the trait variation was observed within species, indicating a strong potential for acclimation. Individuals showed two strategy spectra, related to tissue toughness and organ size vs leaf display. In this nutrient- and light-limited forest, traits measured at the individual level were surprisingly poor predictors of individual growth performance because of convergence of traits and growth rates. Functional trait approaches based on individuals or species are conceptually fundamentally different: the species-based approach focuses on the potential and the individual-based approach on the realized traits and growth rates. Counterintuitively, the individual approach leads to a poor prediction of individual performance, although it provides a more realistic view on community dynamics. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Micro-scale environmental variation amplifies physiological variation among individual mussels.

PubMed

Jimenez, Ana Gabriela; Jayawardene, Sarah; Alves, Shaina; Dallmer, Jeremiah; Dowd, W Wesley

2015-12-07

The contributions of temporal and spatial environmental variation to physiological variation remain poorly resolved. Rocky intertidal zone populations are subjected to thermal variation over the tidal cycle, superimposed with micro-scale variation in individuals' body temperatures. Using the sea mussel (Mytilus californianus), we assessed the consequences of this micro-scale environmental variation for physiological variation among individuals, first by examining the latter in field-acclimatized animals, second by abolishing micro-scale environmental variation via common garden acclimation, and third by restoring this variation using a reciprocal outplant approach. Common garden acclimation reduced the magnitude of variation in tissue-level antioxidant capacities by approximately 30% among mussels from a wave-protected (warm) site, but it had no effect on antioxidant variation among mussels from a wave-exposed (cool) site. The field-acclimatized level of antioxidant variation was restored only when protected-site mussels were outplanted to a high, thermally stressful site. Variation in organismal oxygen consumption rates reflected antioxidant patterns, decreasing dramatically among protected-site mussels after common gardening. These results suggest a highly plastic relationship between individuals' genotypes and their physiological phenotypes that depends on recent environmental experience. Corresponding context-dependent changes in the physiological mean-variance relationships within populations complicate prediction of responses to shifts in environmental variability that are anticipated with global change. © 2015 The Author(s).

Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J

2014-09-01

The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and L∞ (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

Individual variation in cone photoreceptor density in house sparrows: implications for between-individual differences in visual resolution and chromatic contrast.

PubMed

Ensminger, Amanda L; Fernández-Juricic, Esteban

2014-01-01

Between-individual variation has been documented in a wide variety of taxa, especially for behavioral characteristics; however, intra-population variation in sensory systems has not received similar attention in wild animals. We measured a key trait of the visual system, the density of retinal cone photoreceptors, in a wild population of house sparrows (Passer domesticus). We tested whether individuals differed from each other in cone densities given within-individual variation across the retina and across eyes. We further tested whether the existing variation could lead to individual differences in two aspects of perception: visual resolution and chromatic contrast. We found consistent between-individual variation in the densities of all five types of avian cones, involved in chromatic and achromatic vision. Using perceptual modeling, we found that this degree of variation translated into significant between-individual differences in visual resolution and the chromatic contrast of a plumage signal that has been associated with mate choice and agonistic interactions. However, there was no evidence for a relationship between individual visual resolution and chromatic contrast. The implication is that some birds may have the sensory potential to perform "better" in certain visual tasks, but not necessarily in both resolution and contrast simultaneously. Overall, our findings (a) highlight the need to consider multiple individuals when characterizing sensory traits of a species, and (b) provide some mechanistic basis for between-individual variation in different behaviors (i.e., animal personalities) and for testing the predictions of several widely accepted hypotheses (e.g., honest signaling).

Individual Variation in Cone Photoreceptor Density in House Sparrows: Implications for Between-Individual Differences in Visual Resolution and Chromatic Contrast

PubMed Central

Ensminger, Amanda L.; Fernández-Juricic, Esteban

2014-01-01

Between-individual variation has been documented in a wide variety of taxa, especially for behavioral characteristics; however, intra-population variation in sensory systems has not received similar attention in wild animals. We measured a key trait of the visual system, the density of retinal cone photoreceptors, in a wild population of house sparrows (Passer domesticus). We tested whether individuals differed from each other in cone densities given within-individual variation across the retina and across eyes. We further tested whether the existing variation could lead to individual differences in two aspects of perception: visual resolution and chromatic contrast. We found consistent between-individual variation in the densities of all five types of avian cones, involved in chromatic and achromatic vision. Using perceptual modeling, we found that this degree of variation translated into significant between-individual differences in visual resolution and the chromatic contrast of a plumage signal that has been associated with mate choice and agonistic interactions. However, there was no evidence for a relationship between individual visual resolution and chromatic contrast. The implication is that some birds may have the sensory potential to perform “better” in certain visual tasks, but not necessarily in both resolution and contrast simultaneously. Overall, our findings (a) highlight the need to consider multiple individuals when characterizing sensory traits of a species, and (b) provide some mechanistic basis for between-individual variation in different behaviors (i.e., animal personalities) and for testing the predictions of several widely accepted hypotheses (e.g., honest signaling). PMID:25372039

Genotypic richness predicts phenotypic variation in an endangered clonal plant

PubMed Central

Sinclair, Elizabeth A.; Poore, Alistair G.B.; Bain, Keryn F.; Vergés, Adriana

2016-01-01

Declines in genetic diversity within a species can affect the stability and functioning of populations. The conservation of genetic diversity is thus a priority, especially for threatened or endangered species. The importance of genetic variation, however, is dependent on the degree to which it translates into phenotypic variation for traits that affect individual performance and ecological processes. This is especially important for predominantly clonal species, as no single clone is likely to maximise all aspects of performance. Here we show that intraspecific genotypic diversity as measured using microsatellites is a strong predictor of phenotypic variation in morphological traits and shoot productivity of the threatened, predominantly clonal seagrass Posidonia australis, on the east coast of Australia. Biomass and surface area variation was most strongly predicted by genotypic richness, while variation in leaf chemistry (phenolics and nitrogen) was unrelated to genotypic richness. Genotypic richness did not predict tissue loss to herbivores or epiphyte load, however we did find that increased herbivore damage was positively correlated with allelic richness. Although there was no clear relationship between higher primary productivity and genotypic richness, variation in shoot productivity within a meadow was significantly greater in more genotypically diverse meadows. The proportion of phenotypic variation explained by environmental conditions varied among different genotypes, and there was generally no variation in phenotypic traits among genotypes present in the same meadows. Our results show that genotypic richness as measured through the use of presumably neutral DNA markers does covary with phenotypic variation in functionally relevant traits such as leaf morphology and shoot productivity. The remarkably long lifespan of individual Posidonia plants suggests that plasticity within genotypes has played an important role in the longevity of the species. However, the strong link between genotypic and phenotypic variation suggests that a range of genotypes is still the best case scenario for adaptation to and recovery from predicted environmental change. PMID:26925313

A longitudinal survey of anti-Ostertagia ostertagi antibody levels in individual and bulk tank milk in two dairy herds in Normandy.

PubMed

Charlier, Johannes; Camuset, Philippe; Claerebout, Edwin; Courtay, Bruno; Vercruysse, Jozef

2007-10-01

The Ostertagia-specific antibody levels in milk were monitored in 2 dairy herds to investigate seasonal variations and the relationship between individual and bulk tank milk antibody levels. Bulk tank and individual milk samples from all lactating animals were collected over a 1-year period at weekly and monthly intervals, respectively. The Ostertagia-specific antibody levels were measured with an indirect ELISA and the test results were expressed as optical density ratios (ODR). A clear seasonal pattern that followed the expected intake of infectious larvae was observed in the individual and bulk tank milk antibody levels of both herds. Within each herd, there was a large variation in the individual ODRs. This variation remained large when the distribution of individual ODRs was plotted according to high and low bulk tank milk ODR categories. The results suggest that the effect of seasonal variations on cut-off levels that predict production responses after anthelmintic control, needs to be assessed.

Determining Individual Variation in Growth and Its Implication for Life-History and Population Processes Using the Empirical Bayes Method

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J.; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J.

2014-01-01

The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish. PMID:25211603

The stress response and exploratory behaviour in Yucatan minipigs (Sus scrofa): Relations to sex and social rank.

PubMed

Adcock, Sarah J J; Martin, Gerard M; Walsh, Carolyn J

2015-12-01

According to the coping styles hypothesis, an individual demonstrates an integrated behavioural and physiological response to environmental challenge that is consistent over time and across situations. Individual consistency in behavioural responses to challenge has been documented across the animal kingdom. Comparatively few studies, however, have examined inter-individual variation in the physiological response, namely glucocorticoid and catecholamine levels, the stress hormones secreted by the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and the sympathetic nervous system, respectively. Variation in coping styles between individuals may be explained in part by differences in social rank and sex. Using 20 Yucatan minipigs (Sus scrofa) we: (1) investigated the existence of consistent inter-individual variation in exploratory behaviour and the hormonal stress response, and tested for correlations as predicted by the coping styles hypothesis; and (2) evaluated whether inter-individual behavioural and hormonal variation is related to social rank and sex. Salivary stress biomarkers (cortisol, alpha-amylase, chromogranin A) were assessed in the presence and absence of a stressor consisting of social isolation in a crate for 10 min. Principal components analysis on a set of behavioural variables revealed two traits, which we labelled exploratory tendency and neophobia. Neither exploratory tendency nor neophobia predicted the physiological stress response. Subordinate pigs exhibited higher catecholamine levels compared to dominant conspecifics. We observed sex differences in the repeatability of salivary stress markers and reactivity of the stress systems. The results do not provide support for the existence of behavioural-physiological coping styles in pigs. Sex is an important determinant of the physiological stress response and warrants consideration in research addressing behavioural and hormonal variation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting September sea ice: Ensemble skill of the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, Julienne; Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward

2014-04-01

Since 2008, the Study of Environmental Arctic Change Sea Ice Outlook has solicited predictions of September sea-ice extent from the Arctic research community. Individuals and teams employ a variety of modeling, statistical, and heuristic approaches to make these predictions. Viewed as monthly ensembles each with one or two dozen individual predictions, they display a bimodal pattern of success. In years when observed ice extent is near its trend, the median predictions tend to be accurate. In years when the observed extent is anomalous, the median and most individual predictions are less accurate. Statistical analysis suggests that year-to-year variability, rather than methods, dominate the variation in ensemble prediction success. Furthermore, ensemble predictions do not improve as the season evolves. We consider the role of initial ice, atmosphere and ocean conditions, and summer storms and weather in contributing to the challenge of sea-ice prediction.

The renal protective effect of angiotensin receptor blockers depends on intra-individual response variation in multiple risk markers.

PubMed

Schievink, Bauke; de Zeeuw, Dick; Parving, Hans-Henrik; Rossing, Peter; Lambers Heerspink, Hiddo Jan

2015-10-01

Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) are renoprotective and targeted to blood pressure. However, ARBs have multiple other (off-target) effects which may affect renal outcome. It is unknown whether on-target and off-target effects are congruent within individuals. If not, this variation in short term effects may have important implications for the prediction of individual long term renal outcomes. Our aim was to assess intra-individual variability in multiple parameters in response to ARBs in type 2 diabetes. Changes in systolic blood pressure (SBP), albuminuria, potassium, haemoglobin, cholesterol and uric acid after 6 months of losartan treatment were assessed in the RENAAL database. Improvement in predictive performance of renal outcomes (ESRD or doubling serum creatinine) for each individual using ARB-induced changes in all risk markers was assessed by the relative integrative discrimination index (RIDI). SBP response showed high variability (mean -5.7 mmHg, 5(th) to 95(th) percentile -36.5 to +24.0 mmHg) between individuals. Changes in off-target parameters also showed high variability between individuals. No congruency was observed between responses to losartan in multiple parameters within individuals. Using individual responses in all risk markers significantly improved renal risk prediction (RIDI 30.4%, P < 0.01) compared with using only SBP changes. Results were successfully replicated in two independent trials with irbesartan, IDNT and IRMA-2. In this post hoc analysis we showed that ARBs have multiple off-target effects which vary between and within individuals. Combining all ARB-induced responses beyond SBP provides a more accurate prediction of who will benefit from ARB therapy. Prospective trials are required to validate these findings. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird

PubMed Central

Milenkaya, Olga; Catlin, Daniel H.; Legge, Sarah; Walters, Jeffrey R.

2015-01-01

Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch), a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival over four breeding seasons, and sampled them for commonly used condition indices: mass adjusted for body size, muscle and fat scores, packed cell volume, hemoglobin concentration, total plasma protein, and heterophil to lymphocyte ratio. Our study population is well suited for this research because individuals forage in common areas and do not hold territories such that variation in condition between individuals is not confounded by differences in habitat quality. Furthermore, we controlled for factors that are known to impact condition indices in our study population (e.g., breeding stage) such that we assessed individual condition relative to others in the same context. Condition indices that reflect energy reserves predicted both the probability of an individual fledging young and the number of young produced that survived to independence, but only during some years. Those that were relatively heavy for their body size produced about three times more independent young compared to light individuals. That energy reserves are a meaningful predictor of reproductive success in a sedentary passerine supports the idea that energy reserves are at least sometimes predictors of fitness. However, hematological indices failed to predict reproductive success and none of the indices predicted survival. Therefore, some but not all condition indices may be informative, but because we found that most indices did not predict any component of fitness, we question the ubiquitous interpretation of condition indices as surrogates for individual quality and fitness. PMID:26305457

Combining animal personalities with transcriptomics resolves individual variation within a wild-type zebrafish population and identifies underpinning molecular differences in brain function.

PubMed

Rey, S; Boltana, S; Vargas, R; Roher, N; Mackenzie, S

2013-12-01

Resolving phenotype variation within a population in response to environmental perturbation is central to understanding biological adaptation. Relating meaningful adaptive changes at the level of the transcriptome requires the identification of processes that have a functional significance for the individual. This remains a major objective towards understanding the complex interactions between environmental demand and an individual's capacity to respond to such demands. The interpretation of such interactions and the significance of biological variation between individuals from the same or different populations remain a difficult and under-addressed question. Here, we provide evidence that variation in gene expression between individuals in a zebrafish population can be partially resolved by a priori screening for animal personality and accounts for >9% of observed variation in the brain transcriptome. Proactive and reactive individuals within a wild-type population exhibit consistent behavioural responses over time and context that relates to underlying differences in regulated gene networks and predicted protein-protein interactions. These differences can be mapped to distinct regions of the brain and provide a foundation towards understanding the coordination of underpinning adaptive molecular events within populations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

En route noise levels from propfan test assessment airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garber, Donald P.; Willshire, William L., Jr.

1994-01-01

The en route noise test was designed to characterize propagation of propfan noise from cruise altitudes to the ground. In-flight measurements of propfan source levels and directional patterns were made by a chase plane flying in formation with the propfan test assessment (PTA) airplane. Ground noise measurements were taken during repeated flights over a distributed microphone array. The microphone array on the ground was used to provide ensemble-averaged estimates of mean flyover noise levels, establish confidence limits for those means, and measure propagation-induced noise variability. Even for identical nominal cruise conditions, peak sound levels for individual overflights varied substantially about the average, particularly when overflights were performed on different days. Large day-to-day variations in peak level measurements appeared to be caused by large day-to-day differences in propagation conditions and tended to obscure small variations arising from operating conditions. A parametric evaluation of the sensitivity of this prediction method to weather measurement and source level uncertainties was also performed. In general, predictions showed good agreement with measurements. However, the method was unable to predict short-term variability of ensemble-averaged data within individual overflights. Although variations in absorption appear to be the dominant factor in variations of peak sound levels recorded on the ground, accurate predictions of those levels require that a complete description of operational conditions be taken into account. The comprehensive and integrated methods presented in this paper have adequately predicted ground-measured sound levels. On average, peak sound levels were predicted within 3 dB for each of the three different cruise conditions.

Eliminating Unpredictable Variation through Iterated Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Kenny; Wonnacott, Elizabeth

2010-01-01

Human languages may be shaped not only by the (individual psychological) processes of language acquisition, but also by population-level processes arising from repeated language learning and use. One prevalent feature of natural languages is that they avoid unpredictable variation. The current work explores whether linguistic predictability might…

The energetic cost of walking: a comparison of predictive methods.

PubMed

Kramer, Patricia Ann; Sylvester, Adam D

2011-01-01

The energy that animals devote to locomotion has been of intense interest to biologists for decades and two basic methodologies have emerged to predict locomotor energy expenditure: those based on metabolic and those based on mechanical energy. Metabolic energy approaches share the perspective that prediction of locomotor energy expenditure should be based on statistically significant proxies of metabolic function, while mechanical energy approaches, which derive from many different perspectives, focus on quantifying the energy of movement. Some controversy exists as to which mechanical perspective is "best", but from first principles all mechanical methods should be equivalent if the inputs to the simulation are of similar quality. Our goals in this paper are 1) to establish the degree to which the various methods of calculating mechanical energy are correlated, and 2) to investigate to what degree the prediction methods explain the variation in energy expenditure. We use modern humans as the model organism in this experiment because their data are readily attainable, but the methodology is appropriate for use in other species. Volumetric oxygen consumption and kinematic and kinetic data were collected on 8 adults while walking at their self-selected slow, normal and fast velocities. Using hierarchical statistical modeling via ordinary least squares and maximum likelihood techniques, the predictive ability of several metabolic and mechanical approaches were assessed. We found that all approaches are correlated and that the mechanical approaches explain similar amounts of the variation in metabolic energy expenditure. Most methods predict the variation within an individual well, but are poor at accounting for variation between individuals. Our results indicate that the choice of predictive method is dependent on the question(s) of interest and the data available for use as inputs. Although we used modern humans as our model organism, these results can be extended to other species.

Thin-slicing study of the oxytocin receptor (OXTR) gene and the evaluation and expression of the prosocial disposition

PubMed Central

Kogan, Aleksandr; Saslow, Laura R.; Impett, Emily A.; Oveis, Christopher; Keltner, Dacher; Rodrigues Saturn, Sarina

2011-01-01

Individuals who are homozygous for the G allele of the rs53576 SNP of the oxytocin receptor (OXTR) gene tend to be more prosocial than carriers of the A allele. However, little is known about how these differences manifest behaviorally and whether they are readily detectable by outside observers, both critical questions in theoretical accounts of prosociality. In the present study, we used thin-slicing methodology to test the hypotheses that (i) individual differences in rs53576 genotype predict how prosocial observers judge target individuals to be on the basis of brief observations of behavior, and (ii) that variation in targets’ nonverbal displays of affiliative cues would account for these judgment differences. In line with predictions, we found that individuals homozygous for the G allele were judged to be more prosocial than carriers of the A allele. These differences were completely accounted for by variations in the expression of affiliative cues. Thus, individual differences in rs53576 are associated with behavioral manifestations of prosociality, which ultimately guide the judgments others make about the individual. PMID:22084107

Exploring individual quality: Basal metabolic rate and reproductive performance in storm-petrels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blackmer, A.L.; Mauck, R.A.; Ackerman, Joshua T.; Huntington, C.E.; Nevitt, G.A.; Williams, J.B.

2005-01-01

Despite evidence that some individuals achieve both superior reproductive performance and high survivorship, the factors underlying variation in individual quality are not well understood. The compensation and increased-intake hypotheses predict that basal metabolic rate (BMR) influences reproductive performance; if so, variation in BMR may be related to differences in individual quality. We evaluated whether BMR measured during the incubation period provides a proximate explanation for variation in individual quality by measuring the BMRs and reproductive performance of Leach's storm-petrels (Oceanodroma leucorhoa) breeding on Kent Island, New Brunswick, Canada, during 2000 and 2001. We statistically controlled for internal (body mass, breeding age, sex) and external (year, date, time of day) effects on BMR. We found that males with relatively low BMRs hatched their eggs earlier in the season and that their chicks' wing growth rates were faster compared to males with relatively high BMRs. Conversely, BMR was not related to egg volume, hatching date, or chick growth rate for females or to lifetime (???23 years) hatching success for either sex. Thus, for males but not for females, our results support the compensation hypothesis. This hypothesis predicts that animals with low BMRs will achieve better reproductive performance than animals with high BMRs because they have lower self-maintenance costs and therefore can apportion more energy to reproduction. These results provide evidence that intraspecific variation in reproductive performance is related to BMR and suggest that BMR may influence individual quality in males. ?? The Author 2005. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Society for Behavioral Ecology. All rights reserved.

OXTR polymorphism predicts social relationships through its effects on social temperament.

PubMed

Creswell, Kasey G; Wright, Aidan G C; Troxel, Wendy M; Ferrell, Robert E; Flory, Janine D; Manuck, Stephen B

2015-06-01

Humans have a fundamental need for strong interpersonal bonds, yet individuals differ appreciably in their degree of social integration. That these differences are also substantially heritable has spurred interest in biological mechanisms underlying the quality and quantity of individuals' social relationships. We propose that polymorphic variation in the oxytocin receptor gene (OXTR) associates with complex social behaviors and social network composition through intermediate effects on negative affectivity and the psychological processing of socially relevant information. We tested a hypothesized social cascade from the molecular level (OXTR variation) to the social environment, through negative affectivity and inhibited sociality, in a sample of 1295 men and women of European American (N = 1081) and African American (N = 214) ancestry. Compared to European Americans having any T allele of rs1042778, individuals homozygous for the alternate G allele reported significantly lower levels of negative affectivity and inhibited sociality, which in turn predicted significantly higher levels of social support and a larger/more diverse social network. Moreover, the effect of rs1042778 variation on social support was fully accounted for by associated differences in negative affectivity and inhibited sociality. Results replicated in the African American sample. Findings suggest that OXTR variation modulates levels of social support via proximal impacts on individual temperament. © The Author (2014). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Quantifying individual variation in the propensity to attribute incentive salience to reward cues.

PubMed

Meyer, Paul J; Lovic, Vedran; Saunders, Benjamin T; Yager, Lindsay M; Flagel, Shelly B; Morrow, Jonathan D; Robinson, Terry E

2012-01-01

If reward-associated cues acquire the properties of incentive stimuli they can come to powerfully control behavior, and potentially promote maladaptive behavior. Pavlovian incentive stimuli are defined as stimuli that have three fundamental properties: they are attractive, they are themselves desired, and they can spur instrumental actions. We have found, however, that there is considerable individual variation in the extent to which animals attribute Pavlovian incentive motivational properties ("incentive salience") to reward cues. The purpose of this paper was to develop criteria for identifying and classifying individuals based on their propensity to attribute incentive salience to reward cues. To do this, we conducted a meta-analysis of a large sample of rats (N = 1,878) subjected to a classic Pavlovian conditioning procedure. We then used the propensity of animals to approach a cue predictive of reward (one index of the extent to which the cue was attributed with incentive salience), to characterize two behavioral phenotypes in this population: animals that approached the cue ("sign-trackers") vs. others that approached the location of reward delivery ("goal-trackers"). This variation in Pavlovian approach behavior predicted other behavioral indices of the propensity to attribute incentive salience to reward cues. Thus, the procedures reported here should be useful for making comparisons across studies and for assessing individual variation in incentive salience attribution in small samples of the population, or even for classifying single animals.

Application of empirical Bayes methods to predict the rate of decline in ERG at the individual level among patients with retinitis pigmentosa.

PubMed

Qiu, Weiliang; Sandberg, Michael A; Rosner, Bernard

2018-05-31

Retinitis pigmentosa is one of the most common forms of inherited retinal degeneration. The electroretinogram (ERG) can be used to determine the severity of retinitis pigmentosa-the lower the ERG amplitude, the more severe the disease is. In practice for career, lifestyle, and treatment counseling, it is of interest to predict the ERG amplitude of a patient at a future time. One approach is prediction based on the average rate of decline for individual patients. However, there is considerable variation both in initial amplitude and in rate of decline. In this article, we propose an empirical Bayes (EB) approach to incorporate the variations in initial amplitude and rate of decline for the prediction of ERG amplitude at the individual level. We applied the EB method to a collection of ERGs from 898 patients with 3 or more visits over 5 or more years of follow-up tested in the Berman-Gund Laboratory and observed that the predicted values at the last (kth) visit obtained by using the proposed method based on data for the first k-1 visits are highly correlated with the observed values at the kth visit (Spearman correlation =0.93) and have a higher correlation with the observed values than those obtained based on either the population average decline rate or those obtained based on the individual decline rate. The mean square errors for predicted values obtained by the EB method are also smaller than those predicted by the other methods. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Personality and Sociodemographic Variables as Sources of Variation in Environmental Perception.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feimer, Nickolaus R.

This research paper examines the relationship between individual differences in environmental perception, and variables which may be important in predicting, if not explaining those variations. The analyses reported were based upon an environmental perception research study previously conducted at the University of California at Berkeley during…

A novel test for evaluating horses' spontaneous visual attention is predictive of attention in operant learning tasks.

PubMed

Rochais, C; Sébilleau, M; Houdebine, M; Bec, P; Hausberger, M; Henry, S

2017-08-01

Attention is described as the ability to process selectively one aspect of the environment over others. In this study, we characterized horses' spontaneous attention by designing a novel visual attention test (VAT) that is easy to apply in the animal's home environment. The test was repeated over three consecutive days and repeated again 6 months later in order to assess inter-individual variations and intra-individual stability. Different patterns of attention have been revealed: 'overall' attention when the horse merely gazed at the stimulus and 'fixed' attention characterized by fixity and orientation of at least the visual and auditory organs towards the stimulus. The individual attention characteristics remained consistent over time (after 6 months, Spearman correlation test, P < 0.05). The validity of this novel test as a predictor of individual attentional skills was assessed by comparing the results, for the same horses, with those obtained in both a 'classical' experimental attention test the 'five-choice serial reaction time task' (5-CSRTT) and a work situation (lunge working context). Our results revealed that (i) individual variations remained consistent across tests and (ii) the VAT attention measures were not only predictive of attentional skills but also of learning abilities. Differences appeared however between the first day of testing and the following test days: attention structure on the second day was predictive of learning abilities, attention performances in the 5-CSRRT and at work. The VAT appears as a promising easy-to-use tool to assess animals' attention characteristics and the impact of different factors of variation on attention.

A novel test for evaluating horses' spontaneous visual attention is predictive of attention in operant learning tasks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochais, C.; Sébilleau, M.; Houdebine, M.; Bec, P.; Hausberger, M.; Henry, S.

2017-08-01

Attention is described as the ability to process selectively one aspect of the environment over others. In this study, we characterized horses' spontaneous attention by designing a novel visual attention test (VAT) that is easy to apply in the animal's home environment. The test was repeated over three consecutive days and repeated again 6 months later in order to assess inter-individual variations and intra-individual stability. Different patterns of attention have been revealed: `overall' attention when the horse merely gazed at the stimulus and `fixed' attention characterized by fixity and orientation of at least the visual and auditory organs towards the stimulus. The individual attention characteristics remained consistent over time (after 6 months, Spearman correlation test, P < 0.05). The validity of this novel test as a predictor of individual attentional skills was assessed by comparing the results, for the same horses, with those obtained in both a `classical' experimental attention test the `five-choice serial reaction time task' (5-CSRTT) and a work situation (lunge working context). Our results revealed that (i) individual variations remained consistent across tests and (ii) the VAT attention measures were not only predictive of attentional skills but also of learning abilities. Differences appeared however between the first day of testing and the following test days: attention structure on the second day was predictive of learning abilities, attention performances in the 5-CSRRT and at work. The VAT appears as a promising easy-to-use tool to assess animals' attention characteristics and the impact of different factors of variation on attention.

Behavioral Profile Predicts Dominance Status in Mountain Chickadees.

PubMed

Fox, Rebecca A; Ladage, Lara D; Roth, Timothy C; Pravosudov, Vladimir V

2009-06-01

Individual variation in stable behavioral traits may explain variation in ecologically-relevant behaviors such as foraging, dispersal, anti-predator behavior, and dominance. We investigated behavioral variation in mountain chickadees (Poecile gambeli), a North American parid that lives in dominance-structured winter flocks, using two common measures of behavioral profile: exploration of a novel room and novel object exploration. We related those behavioral traits to dominance status in male chickadees following brief, pair-wise encounters. Low-exploring birds (birds that visited less than four locations in the novel room) were significantly more likely to become dominant in brief, pairwise encounters with high-exploring birds (i.e., birds that visited all perching locations within a novel room). On the other hand, there was no relationship between novel object exploration and dominance. Interestingly, novel room exploration was also not correlated with novel object exploration. These results suggest that behavioral profile may predict the social status of group-living individuals. Moreover, our results contradict the idea that novel object exploration and novel room exploration are always interchangeable measures of individuals' sensitivity to environmental novelty.

Individual laboratory-measured discount rates predict field behavior

PubMed Central

Chabris, Christopher F.; Laibson, David; Morris, Carrie L.; Schuldt, Jonathon P.; Taubinsky, Dmitry

2009-01-01

We estimate discount rates of 555 subjects using a laboratory task and find that these individual discount rates predict inter-individual variation in field behaviors (e.g., exercise, BMI, smoking). The correlation between the discount rate and each field behavior is small: none exceeds 0.28 and many are near 0. However, the discount rate has at least as much predictive power as any variable in our dataset (e.g., sex, age, education). The correlation between the discount rate and field behavior rises when field behaviors are aggregated: these correlations range from 0.09-0.38. We present a model that explains why specific intertemporal choice behaviors are only weakly correlated with discount rates, even though discount rates robustly predict aggregates of intertemporal decisions. PMID:19412359

Individual laboratory-measured discount rates predict field behavior.

PubMed

Chabris, Christopher F; Laibson, David; Morris, Carrie L; Schuldt, Jonathon P; Taubinsky, Dmitry

2008-12-01

We estimate discount rates of 555 subjects using a laboratory task and find that these individual discount rates predict inter-individual variation in field behaviors (e.g., exercise, BMI, smoking). The correlation between the discount rate and each field behavior is small: none exceeds 0.28 and many are near 0. However, the discount rate has at least as much predictive power as any variable in our dataset (e.g., sex, age, education). The correlation between the discount rate and field behavior rises when field behaviors are aggregated: these correlations range from 0.09-0.38. We present a model that explains why specific intertemporal choice behaviors are only weakly correlated with discount rates, even though discount rates robustly predict aggregates of intertemporal decisions.

Offspring fitness and individual optimization of clutch size

PubMed Central

Both, C.; Tinbergen, J. M.; Noordwijk, A. J. van

1998-01-01

Within-year variation in clutch size has been claimed to be an adaptation to variation in the individual capacity to raise offspring. We tested this hypothesis by manipulating brood size to one common size, and predicted that if clutch size is individually optimized, then birds with originally large clutches have a higher fitness than birds with originally small clutches. No evidence was found that fitness was related to the original clutch size, and in this population clutch size is thus not related to the parental capacity to raise offspring. However, offspring from larger original clutches recruited better than their nest mates that came from smaller original clutches. This suggests that early maternal or genetic variation in viability is related to clutch size.

Predicting differences in the perceived relevance of crime's costs and benefits in a test of rational choice theory.

PubMed

Bouffard, Jeffrey A

2007-08-01

Previous hypothetical scenario tests of rational choice theory have presented all participants with the same set of consequences, implicitly assuming that these consequences would be relevant for each individual. Recent research demonstrates that those researcher-presented consequences do not accurately reflect those considered by study participants and that there is individual variation in the relevance of various consequences. Despite this and some theoretical propositions that such differences should exist, little empirical research has explored the possibility of predicting such variation. This study allows participants to develop their own set of relevant consequences for three hypothetical offenses and examines how several demographic and theoretical variables impact those consequences' relevance. Exploratory results suggest individual factors impact the perceived relevance of several cost and benefit types, even among a relatively homogenous sample of college students. Implications for future tests of rational choice theory, as well as policy implications are discussed.

OXTR polymorphism predicts social relationships through its effects on social temperament

PubMed Central

Wright, Aidan G. C.; Troxel, Wendy M.; Ferrell, Robert E.; Flory, Janine D.; Manuck, Stephen B.

2015-01-01

Humans have a fundamental need for strong interpersonal bonds, yet individuals differ appreciably in their degree of social integration. That these differences are also substantially heritable has spurred interest in biological mechanisms underlying the quality and quantity of individuals’ social relationships. We propose that polymorphic variation in the oxytocin receptor gene (OXTR) associates with complex social behaviors and social network composition through intermediate effects on negative affectivity and the psychological processing of socially relevant information. We tested a hypothesized social cascade from the molecular level (OXTR variation) to the social environment, through negative affectivity and inhibited sociality, in a sample of 1295 men and women of European American (N = 1081) and African American (N = 214) ancestry. Compared to European Americans having any T allele of rs1042778, individuals homozygous for the alternate G allele reported significantly lower levels of negative affectivity and inhibited sociality, which in turn predicted significantly higher levels of social support and a larger/more diverse social network. Moreover, the effect of rs1042778 variation on social support was fully accounted for by associated differences in negative affectivity and inhibited sociality. Results replicated in the African American sample. Findings suggest that OXTR variation modulates levels of social support via proximal impacts on individual temperament. PMID:25326040

Hormone levels predict individual differences in reproductive success in a passerine bird.

PubMed

Ouyang, Jenny Q; Sharp, Peter J; Dawson, Alistair; Quetting, Michael; Hau, Michaela

2011-08-22

Hormones mediate major physiological and behavioural components of the reproductive phenotype of individuals. To understand basic evolutionary processes in the hormonal regulation of reproductive traits, we need to know whether, and during which reproductive phases, individual variation in hormone concentrations relates to fitness in natural populations. We related circulating concentrations of prolactin and corticosterone to parental behaviour and reproductive success during both the pre-breeding and the chick-rearing stages in both individuals of pairs of free-living house sparrows, Passer domesticus. Prolactin and baseline corticosterone concentrations in pre-breeding females, and prolactin concentrations in pre-breeding males, predicted total number of fledglings. When the strong effect of lay date on total fledgling number was corrected for, only pre-breeding baseline corticosterone, but not prolactin, was negatively correlated with the reproductive success of females. During the breeding season, nestling provisioning rates of both sexes were negatively correlated with stress-induced corticosterone levels. Lastly, individuals of both sexes with low baseline corticosterone before and high baseline corticosterone during breeding raised the most offspring, suggesting that either the plasticity of this trait contributes to reproductive success or that high parental effort leads to increased hormone concentrations. Thus hormone concentrations both before and during breeding, as well as their seasonal dynamics, predict reproductive success, suggesting that individual variation in absolute concentrations and in plasticity is functionally significant, and, if heritable, may be a target of selection.

Aggressive crime, alcohol and drug use, and concentrated poverty in 24 U.S. urban areas.

PubMed

Valdez, Avelardo; Kaplan, Charles D; Curtis, Russell L

2007-01-01

The nexus between substance use and aggressive crime involves a complex interrelationship among mediating individual and community-level variables. Using multilevel logistic regression models, we investigate how community-level concentration of poverty variables mediate the predictive relationships among individual level social attachment variables and substance use on aggressive crime in a large national sample of male arrestees (N = 20,602) drawn from 24 U.S. urban areas. The findings support our hypothesis that individual social attachments to marriage and the labor force (education and employment) are the principal individual-level pathway mediating the substance abuse/aggression nexus. In the random intercept model, 3.17% of the variation not explained by the individual-level predictor variables is attributable to community-level variation in urban area female-headed households and households receiving welfare. This confirms our hypothesis that social structural conditions of an urban environment differentially expose persons to conditions that predict being arrested for an aggressive crime. Our findings tend to counter the cultural theorists who argue for an indigenous culture of violence in inner-city ghettos and barrios.

Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: Is tree size, age, competition, or climate response most important?

PubMed

Foster, Jane R; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Bradford, John B; Banerjee, Sudipto

2016-06-01

As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2 and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests' ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals' size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species like Acer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92-95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Complex Adaptive System Models and the Genetic Analysis of Plasma HDL-Cholesterol Concentration

PubMed Central

Rea, Thomas J.; Brown, Christine M.; Sing, Charles F.

2006-01-01

Despite remarkable advances in diagnosis and therapy, ischemic heart disease (IHD) remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in industrialized countries. Recent efforts to estimate the influence of genetic variation on IHD risk have focused on predicting individual plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) concentration. Plasma HDL-C concentration (mg/dl), a quantitative risk factor for IHD, has a complex multifactorial etiology that involves the actions of many genes. Single gene variations may be necessary but are not individually sufficient to predict a statistically significant increase in risk of disease. The complexity of phenotype-genotype-environment relationships involved in determining plasma HDL-C concentration has challenged commonly held assumptions about genetic causation and has led to the question of which combination of variations, in which subset of genes, in which environmental strata of a particular population significantly improves our ability to predict high or low risk phenotypes. We document the limitations of inferences from genetic research based on commonly accepted biological models, consider how evidence for real-world dynamical interactions between HDL-C determinants challenges the simplifying assumptions implicit in traditional linear statistical genetic models, and conclude by considering research options for evaluating the utility of genetic information in predicting traits with complex etiologies. PMID:17146134

Intraspecific variation in social organization by genetic variation, developmental plasticity, social flexibility or entirely extrinsic factors.

PubMed

Schradin, Carsten

2013-05-19

Previously, it was widely believed that each species has a specific social organization, but we know now that many species show intraspecific variation in their social organization. Four different processes can lead to intraspecific variation in social organization: (i) genetic variation between individuals owing to local adaptation (between populations) or evolutionarily stable strategies within populations; (ii) developmental plasticity evolved in long-term (more than one generation) unpredictable and short-term (one generation) predictable environments, which is mediated by organizational physiological effects during early ontogeny; (iii) social flexibility evolved in highly unpredictable environments, which is mediated by activational physiological effects in adults; (iv) entirely extrinsic factors such as the death of a dominant breeder. Variation in social behaviour occurs between individuals in the case of genetic variation and developmental plasticity, but within individuals in the case of social flexibility. It is important to study intraspecific variation in social organization to understand the social systems of species because it reveals the mechanisms by which species can adapt to changing environments, offers a useful tool to study the ultimate and proximate causes of sociality, and is an interesting phenomenon by itself that needs scientific explanation.

Success-factors in transition to university mathematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bengmark, S.; Thunberg, H.; Winberg, T. M.

2017-11-01

This study examines different factors' relative importance for students' performance in the transition to university mathematics. Students' characteristics (motivation, actions and beliefs) were measured when entering the university and at the end of the first year. Principal component analysis revealed four important constructs: Self-efficacy, Motivation type, Study habits and Views of mathematics. Subsequently, orthogonal partial least squares (OPLS) analysis was used for measuring the constructs' ability to predict students' university mathematics grades. No individual constructs measured at the time of entrance predicted more than 5% of the variation. On the other hand, jointly they predicted 14%, which is almost in pair with upper secondary grades predicting 17%. Constructs measured at the end of the first year were stronger predictors, jointly predicting 37% of the variation in university grades, with Self-efficacy (21%) and Motivation (12%) being the two strongest individual predictors. In general, Study habits were not important for predicting university achievement. However, for students with low upper secondary grades, the textbook and interaction with peers, rather than internet-based resources, contributed positively to achievement. The association between Views of mathematics and performance was weak for all groups and non-existing for students with low grades.

Adjusting the Stems Regional Forest Growth Model to Improve Local Predictions

Treesearch

W. Brad Smith

1983-01-01

A simple procedure using double sampling is described for adjusting growth in the STEMS regional forest growth model to compensate for subregional variations. Predictive accuracy of the STEMS model (a distance-independent, individual tree growth model for Lake States forests) was improved by using this procedure

Predicting Ki67% expression from DCE-MR images of breast tumors using textural kinetic features in tumor habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhury, Baishali; Zhou, Mu; Farhidzadeh, Hamidreza; Goldgof, Dmitry B.; Hall, Lawrence O.; Gatenby, Robert A.; Gillies, Robert J.; Weinfurtner, Robert J.; Drukteinis, Jennifer S.

2016-03-01

The use of Ki67% expression, a cell proliferation marker, as a predictive and prognostic factor has been widely studied in the literature. Yet its usefulness is limited due to inconsistent cut off scores for Ki67% expression, subjective differences in its assessment in various studies, and spatial variation in expression, which makes it difficult to reproduce as a reliable independent prognostic factor. Previous studies have shown that there are significant spatial variations in Ki67% expression, which may limit its clinical prognostic utility after core biopsy. These variations are most evident when examining the periphery of the tumor vs. the core. To date, prediction of Ki67% expression from quantitative image analysis of DCE-MRI is very limited. This work presents a novel computer aided diagnosis framework to use textural kinetics to (i) predict the ratio of periphery Ki67% expression to core Ki67% expression, and (ii) predict Ki67% expression from individual tumor habitats. The pilot cohort consists of T1 weighted fat saturated DCE-MR images from 17 patients. Support vector regression with a radial basis function was used for predicting the Ki67% expression and ratios. The initial results show that texture features from individual tumor habitats are more predictive of the Ki67% expression ratio and spatial Ki67% expression than features from the whole tumor. The Ki67% expression ratio could be predicted with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.67%. Quantitative image analysis of DCE-MRI using textural kinetic habitats, has the potential to be used as a non-invasive method for predicting Ki67 percentage and ratio, thus more accurately reporting high KI-67 expression for patient prognosis.

Quantifying Individual Variation in the Propensity to Attribute Incentive Salience to Reward Cues

PubMed Central

Meyer, Paul J.; Lovic, Vedran; Saunders, Benjamin T.; Yager, Lindsay M.; Flagel, Shelly B.; Morrow, Jonathan D.; Robinson, Terry E.

2012-01-01

If reward-associated cues acquire the properties of incentive stimuli they can come to powerfully control behavior, and potentially promote maladaptive behavior. Pavlovian incentive stimuli are defined as stimuli that have three fundamental properties: they are attractive, they are themselves desired, and they can spur instrumental actions. We have found, however, that there is considerable individual variation in the extent to which animals attribute Pavlovian incentive motivational properties (“incentive salience”) to reward cues. The purpose of this paper was to develop criteria for identifying and classifying individuals based on their propensity to attribute incentive salience to reward cues. To do this, we conducted a meta-analysis of a large sample of rats (N = 1,878) subjected to a classic Pavlovian conditioning procedure. We then used the propensity of animals to approach a cue predictive of reward (one index of the extent to which the cue was attributed with incentive salience), to characterize two behavioral phenotypes in this population: animals that approached the cue (“sign-trackers”) vs. others that approached the location of reward delivery (“goal-trackers”). This variation in Pavlovian approach behavior predicted other behavioral indices of the propensity to attribute incentive salience to reward cues. Thus, the procedures reported here should be useful for making comparisons across studies and for assessing individual variation in incentive salience attribution in small samples of the population, or even for classifying single animals. PMID:22761718

The Enduring Appeal of "Learning Styles"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scott, Catherine

2010-01-01

Individualism is the dominant value system in Western cultures and, as such, it affects the conduct of every aspect of human endeavour, including education. One of the most enduring effects on education has been the search for individual differences that can explain and predict variation in student achievement, with the hope that pedagogical…

Prioritizing Conservation of Ungulate Calving Resources in Multiple-Use Landscapes

PubMed Central

Dzialak, Matthew R.; Harju, Seth M.; Osborn, Robert G.; Wondzell, John J.; Hayden-Wing, Larry D.; Winstead, Jeffrey B.; Webb, Stephen L.

2011-01-01

Background Conserving animal populations in places where human activity is increasing is an ongoing challenge in many parts of the world. We investigated how human activity interacted with maternal status and individual variation in behavior to affect reliability of spatially-explicit models intended to guide conservation of critical ungulate calving resources. We studied Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) that occupy a region where 2900 natural gas wells have been drilled. Methodology/Principal Findings We present novel applications of generalized additive modeling to predict maternal status based on movement, and of random-effects resource selection models to provide population and individual-based inference on the effects of maternal status and human activity. We used a 2×2 factorial design (treatment vs. control) that included elk that were either parturient or non-parturient and in areas either with or without industrial development. Generalized additive models predicted maternal status (parturiency) correctly 93% of the time based on movement. Human activity played a larger role than maternal status in shaping resource use; elk showed strong spatiotemporal patterns of selection or avoidance and marked individual variation in developed areas, but no such pattern in undeveloped areas. This difference had direct consequences for landscape-level conservation planning. When relative probability of use was calculated across the study area, there was disparity throughout 72–88% of the landscape in terms of where conservation intervention should be prioritized depending on whether models were based on behavior in developed areas or undeveloped areas. Model validation showed that models based on behavior in developed areas had poor predictive accuracy, whereas the model based on behavior in undeveloped areas had high predictive accuracy. Conclusions/Significance By directly testing for differences between developed and undeveloped areas, and by modeling resource selection in a random-effects framework that provided individual-based inference, we conclude that: 1) amplified selection or avoidance behavior and individual variation, as responses to increasing human activity, complicate conservation planning in multiple-use landscapes, and 2) resource selection behavior in places where human activity is predictable or less dynamic may provide a more reliable basis from which to prioritize conservation action. PMID:21297866

Copy number variation signature to predict human ancestry

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Copy number variations (CNVs) are genomic structural variants that are found in healthy populations and have been observed to be associated with disease susceptibility. Existing methods for CNV detection are often performed on a sample-by-sample basis, which is not ideal for large datasets where common CNVs must be estimated by comparing the frequency of CNVs in the individual samples. Here we describe a simple and novel approach to locate genome-wide CNVs common to a specific population, using human ancestry as the phenotype. Results We utilized our previously published Genome Alteration Detection Analysis (GADA) algorithm to identify common ancestry CNVs (caCNVs) and built a caCNV model to predict population structure. We identified a 73 caCNV signature using a training set of 225 healthy individuals from European, Asian, and African ancestry. The signature was validated on an independent test set of 300 individuals with similar ancestral background. The error rate in predicting ancestry in this test set was 2% using the 73 caCNV signature. Among the caCNVs identified, several were previously confirmed experimentally to vary by ancestry. Our signature also contains a caCNV region with a single microRNA (MIR270), which represents the first reported variation of microRNA by ancestry. Conclusions We developed a new methodology to identify common CNVs and demonstrated its performance by building a caCNV signature to predict human ancestry with high accuracy. The utility of our approach could be extended to large case–control studies to identify CNV signatures for other phenotypes such as disease susceptibility and drug response. PMID:23270563

Animal movement in the absence of predation: environmental drivers of movement strategies in a partial migration system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Gibbs, James P.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Frair, Jacqueline L.; Cabrera, Fredy; Rousseau, Louis-Philippe

2016-01-01

Animal movement strategies including migration, dispersal, nomadism, and residency are shaped by broad-scale spatial-temporal structuring of the environment, including factors such as the degrees of spatial variation, seasonality and inter-annual predictability. Animal movement strategies, in turn, interact with the characteristics of individuals and the local distribution of resources to determine local patterns of resource selection with complex and poorly understood implications for animal fitness. Here we present a multi-scale investigation of animal movement strategies and resource selection. We consider the degree to which spatial variation, seasonality, and inter-annual predictability in resources drive migration patterns among different taxa and how movement strategies in turn shape local resource selection patterns. We focus on adult Galapagos giant tortoises Chelonoidis spp. as a model system since they display many movement strategies and evolved in the absence of predators of adults. Specifically, our analysis is based on 63 individuals among four taxa tracked on three islands over six years and almost 106 tortoise re-locations. Tortoises displayed a continuum of movement strategies from migration to sedentarism that were linked to the spatio-temporal scale and predictability of resource distributions. Movement strategies shaped patterns of resource selection. Specifically, migratory individuals displayed stronger selection toward areas where resources were more predictable among years than did non-migratory individuals, which indicates a selective advantage for migrants in seasonally structured, more predictable environments. Our analytical framework combines large-scale predictions for movement strategies, based on environmental structuring, with finer-scale analysis of space-use. Integrating different organizational levels of analysis provides a deeper understanding of the eco-evolutionary dynamics at play in the emergence and maintenance of migration and the critical role of resource predictability. Our results highlight that assessing the potential benefits of differential behavioral responses first requires an understanding of the interactions among movement strategies, resource selection and individual characteristics.

Dynamic Variation in Pleasure in Children Predicts Nonlinear Change in Lateral Frontal Brain Electrical Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Light, Sharee N.; Coan, James A.; Frye, Corrina; Goldsmith, H. Hill; Davidson, Richard J.

2009-01-01

Individual variation in the experience and expression of pleasure may relate to differential patterns of lateral frontal activity. Brain electrical measures have been used to study the asymmetric involvement of lateral frontal cortex in positive emotion, but the excellent time resolution of these measures has not been used to capture…

Quantifying rare, deleterious variation in 12 human cytochrome P450 drug-metabolism genes in a large-scale exome dataset.

PubMed

Gordon, Adam S; Tabor, Holly K; Johnson, Andrew D; Snively, Beverly M; Assimes, Themistocles L; Auer, Paul L; Ioannidis, John P A; Peters, Ulrike; Robinson, Jennifer G; Sucheston, Lara E; Wang, Danxin; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Rotter, Jerome I; Psaty, Bruce M; Jackson, Rebecca D; Herrington, David M; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Reiner, Alexander P; Rich, Stephen S; Rieder, Mark J; Bamshad, Michael J; Nickerson, Deborah A

2014-04-15

The study of genetic influences on drug response and efficacy ('pharmacogenetics') has existed for over 50 years. Yet, we still lack a complete picture of how genetic variation, both common and rare, affects each individual's responses to medications. Exome sequencing is a promising alternative method for pharmacogenetic discovery as it provides information on both common and rare variation in large numbers of individuals. Using exome data from 2203 AA and 4300 Caucasian individuals through the NHLBI Exome Sequencing Project, we conducted a survey of coding variation within 12 Cytochrome P450 (CYP) genes that are collectively responsible for catalyzing nearly 75% of all known Phase I drug oxidation reactions. In addition to identifying many polymorphisms with known pharmacogenetic effects, we discovered over 730 novel nonsynonymous alleles across the 12 CYP genes of interest. These alleles include many with diverse functional effects such as premature stop codons, aberrant splicesites and mutations at conserved active site residues. Our analysis considering both novel, predicted functional alleles as well as known, actionable CYP alleles reveals that rare, deleterious variation contributes markedly to the overall burden of pharmacogenetic alleles within the populations considered, and that the contribution of rare variation to this burden is over three times greater in AA individuals as compared with Caucasians. While most of these impactful alleles are individually rare, 7.6-11.7% of individuals interrogated in the study carry at least one newly described potentially deleterious alleles in a major drug-metabolizing CYP.

The Colonization Dynamics of the Gut Microbiota in Tilapia Larvae

PubMed Central

Giatsis, Christos; Sipkema, Detmer; Smidt, Hauke; Verreth, Johan; Verdegem, Marc

2014-01-01

The gut microbiota of fish larvae evolves fast towards a complex community. Both host and environment affect the development of the gut microbiota; however, the relative importance of both is poorly understood. Determining specific changes in gut microbial populations in response to a change in an environmental factor is very complicated. Interactions between factors are difficult to separate and any response could be masked due to high inter-individual variation even for individuals that share a common environment. In this study we characterized and quantified the spatio-temporal variation in the gut microbiota of tilapia larvae, reared in recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) or active suspension tanks (AS). Our results showed that variation in gut microbiota between replicate tanks was not significantly higher than within tank variation, suggesting that there is no tank effect on water and gut microbiota. However, when individuals were reared in replicate RAS, gut microbiota differed significantly. The highest variation was observed between individuals reared in different types of system (RAS vs. AS). Our data suggest that under experimental conditions in which the roles of deterministic and stochastic factors have not been precisely determined, compositional replication of the microbial communities of an ecosystem is not predictable. PMID:25072852

Analysis of baseline gene expression levels from toxicogenomics study control animals to identify sources of variation and predict responses to chemicals

EPA Science Inventory

The use of gene expression profiling to predict chemical mode of action would be enhanced by better characterization of variance due to individual, environmental, and technical factors. Meta-analysis of microarray data from untreated or vehicle-treated animals within the control ...

The Energetic Cost of Walking: A Comparison of Predictive Methods

PubMed Central

Kramer, Patricia Ann; Sylvester, Adam D.

2011-01-01

Background The energy that animals devote to locomotion has been of intense interest to biologists for decades and two basic methodologies have emerged to predict locomotor energy expenditure: those based on metabolic and those based on mechanical energy. Metabolic energy approaches share the perspective that prediction of locomotor energy expenditure should be based on statistically significant proxies of metabolic function, while mechanical energy approaches, which derive from many different perspectives, focus on quantifying the energy of movement. Some controversy exists as to which mechanical perspective is “best”, but from first principles all mechanical methods should be equivalent if the inputs to the simulation are of similar quality. Our goals in this paper are 1) to establish the degree to which the various methods of calculating mechanical energy are correlated, and 2) to investigate to what degree the prediction methods explain the variation in energy expenditure. Methodology/Principal Findings We use modern humans as the model organism in this experiment because their data are readily attainable, but the methodology is appropriate for use in other species. Volumetric oxygen consumption and kinematic and kinetic data were collected on 8 adults while walking at their self-selected slow, normal and fast velocities. Using hierarchical statistical modeling via ordinary least squares and maximum likelihood techniques, the predictive ability of several metabolic and mechanical approaches were assessed. We found that all approaches are correlated and that the mechanical approaches explain similar amounts of the variation in metabolic energy expenditure. Most methods predict the variation within an individual well, but are poor at accounting for variation between individuals. Conclusion Our results indicate that the choice of predictive method is dependent on the question(s) of interest and the data available for use as inputs. Although we used modern humans as our model organism, these results can be extended to other species. PMID:21731693

Inhibition and Updating, but Not Switching, Predict Developmental Dyslexia and Individual Variation in Reading Ability

PubMed Central

Doyle, Caoilainn; Smeaton, Alan F.; Roche, Richard A. P.; Boran, Lorraine

2018-01-01

To elucidate the core executive function profile (strengths and weaknesses in inhibition, updating, and switching) associated with dyslexia, this study explored executive function in 27 children with dyslexia and 29 age matched controls using sensitive z-mean measures of each ability and controlled for individual differences in processing speed. This study found that developmental dyslexia is associated with inhibition and updating, but not switching impairments, at the error z-mean composite level, whilst controlling for processing speed. Inhibition and updating (but not switching) error composites predicted both dyslexia likelihood and reading ability across the full range of variation from typical to atypical. The predictive relationships were such that those with poorer performance on inhibition and updating measures were significantly more likely to have a diagnosis of developmental dyslexia and also demonstrate poorer reading ability. These findings suggest that inhibition and updating abilities are associated with developmental dyslexia and predict reading ability. Future studies should explore executive function training as an intervention for children with dyslexia as core executive functions appear to be modifiable with training and may transfer to improved reading ability. PMID:29892245

Modelling personality, plasticity and predictability in shelter dogs

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Behavioural assessments of shelter dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) typically comprise standardized test batteries conducted at one time point, but test batteries have shown inconsistent predictive validity. Longitudinal behavioural assessments offer an alternative. We modelled longitudinal observational data on shelter dog behaviour using the framework of behavioural reaction norms, partitioning variance into personality (i.e. inter-individual differences in behaviour), plasticity (i.e. inter-individual differences in average behaviour) and predictability (i.e. individual differences in residual intra-individual variation). We analysed data on interactions of 3263 dogs (n = 19 281) with unfamiliar people during their first month after arrival at the shelter. Accounting for personality, plasticity (linear and quadratic trends) and predictability improved the predictive accuracy of the analyses compared to models quantifying personality and/or plasticity only. While dogs were, on average, highly sociable with unfamiliar people and sociability increased over days since arrival, group averages were unrepresentative of all dogs and predictions made at the individual level entailed considerable uncertainty. Effects of demographic variables (e.g. age) on personality, plasticity and predictability were observed. Behavioural repeatability was higher one week after arrival compared to arrival day. Our results highlight the value of longitudinal assessments on shelter dogs and identify measures that could improve the predictive validity of behavioural assessments in shelters. PMID:28989764

Are personality differences in a small iteroparous mammal maintained by a life-history trade-off?

PubMed Central

Dammhahn, Melanie

2012-01-01

Despite increasing interest, animal personality is still a puzzling phenomenon. Several theoretical models have been proposed to explain intraindividual consistency and interindividual variation in behaviour, which have been primarily supported by qualitative data and simulations. Using an empirical approach, I tested predictions of one main life-history hypothesis, which posits that consistent individual differences in behaviour are favoured by a trade-off between current and future reproduction. Data on life-history were collected for individuals of a natural population of grey mouse lemurs (Microcebus murinus). Using open-field and novel-object tests, I quantified variation in activity, exploration and boldness for 117 individuals over 3 years. I found systematic variation in boldness between individuals of different residual reproductive value. Young males with low current but high expected future fitness were less bold than older males with high current fecundity, and males might increase in boldness with age. Females have low variation in assets and in boldness with age. Body condition was not related to boldness and only explained marginal variation in exploration. Overall, these data indicate that a trade-off between current and future reproduction might maintain personality variation in mouse lemurs, and thus provide empirical support of this life-history trade-off hypothesis. PMID:22398164

Individual differences in children's innovative problem-solving are not predicted by divergent thinking or executive functions

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Recent studies of children's tool innovation have revealed that there is variation in children's success in middle-childhood. In two individual differences studies, we sought to identify personal characteristics that might predict success on an innovation task. In Study 1, we found that although measures of divergent thinking were related to each other they did not predict innovation success. In Study 2, we measured executive functioning including: inhibition, working memory, attentional flexibility and ill-structured problem-solving. None of these measures predicted innovation, but, innovation was predicted by children's performance on a receptive vocabulary scale that may function as a proxy for general intelligence. We did not find evidence that children's innovation was predicted by specific personal characteristics. PMID:26926280

Multiple aspects of plasticity in clutch size vary among populations of a globally distributed songbird.

PubMed

Westneat, David F; Bókony, Veronika; Burke, Terry; Chastel, Olivier; Jensen, Henrik; Kvalnes, Thomas; Lendvai, Ádám Z; Liker, András; Mock, Douglas; Schroeder, Julia; Schwagmeyer, P L; Sorci, Gabriele; Stewart, Ian R K

2014-07-01

Plasticity in life-history characteristics can influence many ecological and evolutionary phenomena, including how invading organisms cope with novel conditions in new locations or how environmental change affects organisms in native locations. Variation in reaction norm attributes is a critical element to understanding plasticity in life history, yet we know relatively little about the ways in which reaction norms vary within and among populations. We amassed data on clutch size from marked females in eight populations of house sparrows (Passer domesticus) from North America and Europe. We exploited repeated measures of clutch size to assess both the extent of within-individual phenotypic plasticity and among-individual variation and to test alternative hypotheses about the underlying causes of reaction norm shape, particularly the decline in clutch size with date. Across all populations, females of this multibrooded species altered their clutch size with respect to date, attempt order, and the interaction of date and order, producing a reaction norm in multidimensional environmental space. The reaction norm fits that predicted by a model in which optimal clutch size is driven by a decline with date hatched in the ability of offspring to recruit. Our results do not fit those predicted for other proposed causes of a seasonal decline in clutch size. We also found significant differences between populations in response to date and the date by attempt order interaction. We tested the prediction that the relationship with date should be increasingly negative as breeding season becomes shorter but found steeper declines in clutch size with date in populations with longer seasons, contrary to the prediction. Populations also differed in the level of among-individual variation in reaction norm intercept, but we found no evidence of among-individual variation in reaction norm slope. We show that complex reaction norms in life-history characters exhibit within- and among-population variance. The nature of this variance is only partially consistent with current life-history theory and stimulates expansions of such theory to accommodate complexities in adaptive life history. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

The mathematical limits of genetic prediction for complex chronic disease.

PubMed

Keyes, Katherine M; Smith, George Davey; Koenen, Karestan C; Galea, Sandro

2015-06-01

Attempts at predicting individual risk of disease based on common germline genetic variation have largely been disappointing. The present paper formalises why genetic prediction at the individual level is and will continue to have limited utility given the aetiological architecture of most common complex diseases. Data were simulated on one million populations with 10 000 individuals in each populations with varying prevalences of a genetic risk factor, an interacting environmental factor and the background rate of disease. The determinant risk ratio and risk difference magnitude for the association between a gene variant and disease is a function of the prevalence of the interacting factors that activate the gene, and the background rate of disease. The risk ratio and total excess cases due to the genetic factor increase as the prevalence of interacting factors increase, and decrease as the background rate of disease increases. Germline genetic variations have high predictive capacity for individual disease only under conditions of high heritability of particular genetic sequences, plausible only under rare variant hypotheses. Under a model of common germline genetic variants that interact with other genes and/or environmental factors in order to cause disease, the predictive capacity of common genetic variants is determined by the prevalence of the factors that interact with the variant and the background rate. A focus on estimating genetic associations for the purpose of prediction without explicitly grounding such work in an understanding of modifiable (including environmentally influenced) factors will be limited in its ability to yield important insights about the risk of disease. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Predicting variations of perceptual performance across individuals from neural activity using pattern classifiers.

PubMed

Das, Koel; Giesbrecht, Barry; Eckstein, Miguel P

2010-07-15

Within the past decade computational approaches adopted from the field of machine learning have provided neuroscientists with powerful new tools for analyzing neural data. For instance, previous studies have applied pattern classification algorithms to electroencephalography data to predict the category of presented visual stimuli, human observer decision choices and task difficulty. Here, we quantitatively compare the ability of pattern classifiers and three ERP metrics (peak amplitude, mean amplitude, and onset latency of the face-selective N170) to predict variations across individuals' behavioral performance in a difficult perceptual task identifying images of faces and cars embedded in noise. We investigate three different pattern classifiers (Classwise Principal Component Analysis, CPCA; Linear Discriminant Analysis, LDA; and Support Vector Machine, SVM), five training methods differing in the selection of training data sets and three analyses procedures for the ERP measures. We show that all three pattern classifier algorithms surpass traditional ERP measurements in their ability to predict individual differences in performance. Although the differences across pattern classifiers were not large, the CPCA method with training data sets restricted to EEG activity for trials in which observers expressed high confidence about their decisions performed the highest at predicting perceptual performance of observers. We also show that the neural activity predicting the performance across individuals was distributed through time starting at 120ms, and unlike the face-selective ERP response, sustained for more than 400ms after stimulus presentation, indicating that both early and late components contain information correlated with observers' behavioral performance. Together, our results further demonstrate the potential of pattern classifiers compared to more traditional ERP techniques as an analysis tool for modeling spatiotemporal dynamics of the human brain and relating neural activity to behavior. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Gene Structure Changes Resulting from Genetic Variants via Exon Definition Features.

PubMed

Majoros, William H; Holt, Carson; Campbell, Michael S; Ware, Doreen; Yandell, Mark; Reddy, Timothy E

2018-04-25

Genetic variation that disrupts gene function by altering gene splicing between individuals can substantially influence traits and disease. In those cases, accurately predicting the effects of genetic variation on splicing can be highly valuable for investigating the mechanisms underlying those traits and diseases. While methods have been developed to generate high quality computational predictions of gene structures in reference genomes, the same methods perform poorly when used to predict the potentially deleterious effects of genetic changes that alter gene splicing between individuals. Underlying that discrepancy in predictive ability are the common assumptions by reference gene finding algorithms that genes are conserved, well-formed, and produce functional proteins. We describe a probabilistic approach for predicting recent changes to gene structure that may or may not conserve function. The model is applicable to both coding and noncoding genes, and can be trained on existing gene annotations without requiring curated examples of aberrant splicing. We apply this model to the problem of predicting altered splicing patterns in the genomes of individual humans, and we demonstrate that performing gene-structure prediction without relying on conserved coding features is feasible. The model predicts an unexpected abundance of variants that create de novo splice sites, an observation supported by both simulations and empirical data from RNA-seq experiments. While these de novo splice variants are commonly misinterpreted by other tools as coding or noncoding variants of little or no effect, we find that in some cases they can have large effects on splicing activity and protein products, and we propose that they may commonly act as cryptic factors in disease. The software is available from geneprediction.org/SGRF. bmajoros@duke.edu. Supplementary information is available at Bioinformatics online.

Load Modulation of BOLD Response and Connectivity Predicts Working Memory Performance in Younger and Older Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nagel, Irene E.; Preuschhof, Claudia; Li, Shu-Chen; Nyberg, Lars; Backman, Lars; Lindenberger, Ulman; Heekeren, Hauke R.

2011-01-01

Individual differences in working memory (WM) performance have rarely been related to individual differences in the functional responsivity of the WM brain network. By neglecting person-to-person variation, comparisons of network activity between younger and older adults using functional imaging techniques often confound differences in activity…

Repeatability of circadian behavioural variation revealed in free-ranging marine fish.

PubMed

Alós, Josep; Martorell-Barceló, Martina; Campos-Candela, Andrea

2017-02-01

Repeatable between-individual differences in the behavioural manifestation of underlying circadian rhythms determine chronotypes in humans and terrestrial animals. Here, we have repeatedly measured three circadian behaviours, awakening time, rest onset and rest duration, in the free-ranging pearly razorfish, Xyrithchys novacula , facilitated by acoustic tracking technology and hidden Markov models. In addition, daily travelled distance, a standard measure of daily activity as fish personality trait, was repeatedly assessed using a State-Space Model. We have decomposed the variance of these four behavioural traits using linear mixed models and estimated repeatability scores ( R ) while controlling for environmental co-variates: year of experimentation, spatial location of the activity, fish size and gender and their interactions. Between- and within-individual variance decomposition revealed significant R s in all traits suggesting high predictability of individual circadian behavioural variation and the existence of chronotypes. The decomposition of the correlations among chronotypes and the personality trait studied here into between- and within-individual correlations did not reveal any significant correlation at between-individual level. We therefore propose circadian behavioural variation as an independent axis of the fish personality, and the study of chronotypes and their consequences as a novel dimension in understanding within-species fish behavioural diversity.

Architecture and functional ecology of the human gastrocnemius muscle-tendon unit.

PubMed

Butler, Erin E; Dominy, Nathaniel J

2016-04-01

The gastrocnemius muscle-tendon unit (MTU) is central to human locomotion. Structural variation in the human gastrocnemius MTU is predicted to affect the efficiency of locomotion, a concept most often explored in the context of performance activities. For example, stiffness of the Achilles tendon varies among individuals with different histories of competitive running. Such a finding highlights the functional variation of individuals and raises the possibility of similar variation between populations, perhaps in response to specific ecological or environmental demands. Researchers often assume minimal variation in human populations, or that industrialized populations represent the human species as well as any other. Yet rainforest hunter-gatherers, which often express the human pygmy phenotype, contradict such assumptions. Indeed, the human pygmy phenotype is a potential model system for exploring the range of ecomorphological variation in the architecture of human hindlimb muscles, a concept we review here. © 2015 Anatomical Society.

Good neighbors make good defenses: associational refuges reduce defense investment in African savanna plants.

PubMed

Coverdale, Tyler C; Goheen, Jacob R; Palmer, Todd M; Pringle, Robert M

2018-06-25

Intraspecific variation in plant defense phenotype is common and has wide-ranging ecological consequences. Yet prevailing theories of plant defense allocation, which primarily account for interspecific differences in defense phenotype, often fail to predict intraspecific patterns. Furthermore, although individual variation in defense phenotype is often attributed to ecological interactions, few general mechanisms have been proposed to explain the ubiquity of variable defense phenotype within species. Here, we show experimentally that associational refuges and induced resistance interact to create predictable intraspecific variation in defense phenotype in African savanna plants. Physically defended species from four families (Acanthaceae, Asparagaceae, Cactaceae, and Solanaceae) growing in close association with spinescent Acacia trees had 39-78% fewer spines and thorns than did isolated conspecifics. For a subset of these species, we used a series of manipulative experiments to show that this variability is maintained primarily by a reduction in induced responses among individuals that seldom experience mammalian herbivory, whether due to association with Acacia trees or to experimental herbivore exclusion. Unassociated plants incurred 4- to 16-fold more browsing damage than did associated individuals and increased spine density by 16-38% within one month following simulated browsing. In contrast, experimental clipping induced no net change in spine density among plants growing beneath Acacia canopies or inside long-term herbivore exclosures. Associated and unassociated individuals produced similar numbers of flowers and seeds, but seedling recruitment and survival were vastly greater in refuge habitats, suggesting a net fitness benefit of association. We conclude that plant-plant associations consistently decrease defense investment in this system by reducing both the frequency of herbivory and the intensity of induced responses, and that inducible responses enable plants to capitalize on such associations in heterogeneous environments. Given the prevalence of associational and induced defenses in plant communities worldwide, our results suggest a potentially general mechanism by which biotic interactions might predictably shape intraspecific variation in plant defense phenotype. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

A person based formula for allocating commissioning funds to general practices in England: development of a statistical model.

PubMed

Dixon, Jennifer; Smith, Peter; Gravelle, Hugh; Martin, Steve; Bardsley, Martin; Rice, Nigel; Georghiou, Theo; Dusheiko, Mark; Billings, John; Lorenzo, Michael De; Sanderson, Colin

2011-11-22

To develop a formula for allocating resources for commissioning hospital care to all general practices in England based on the health needs of the people registered in each practice Multivariate prospective statistical models were developed in which routinely collected electronic information from 2005-6 and 2006-7 on individuals and the areas in which they lived was used to predict their costs of hospital care in the next year, 2007-8. Data on individuals included all diagnoses recorded at any inpatient admission. Models were developed on a random sample of 5 million people and validated on a second random sample of 5 million people and a third sample of 5 million people drawn from a random sample of practices. All general practices in England as of 1 April 2007. All NHS inpatient admissions and outpatient attendances for individuals registered with a general practice on that date. All individuals registered with a general practice in England at 1 April 2007. Power of the statistical models to predict the costs of the individual patient or each practice's registered population for 2007-8 tested with a range of metrics (R(2) reported here). Comparisons of predicted costs in 2007-8 with actual costs incurred in the same year were calculated by individual and by practice. Models including person level information (age, sex, and ICD-10 codes diagnostic recorded) and a range of area level information (such as socioeconomic deprivation and supply of health facilities) were most predictive of costs. After accounting for person level variables, area level variables added little explanatory power. The best models for resource allocation could predict upwards of 77% of the variation in costs at practice level, and about 12% at the person level. With these models, the predicted costs of about a third of practices would exceed or undershoot the actual costs by 10% or more. Smaller practices were more likely to be in these groups. A model was developed that performed well by international standards, and could be used for allocations to practices for commissioning. The best formulas, however, could predict only about 12% of the variation in next year's costs of most inpatient and outpatient NHS care for each individual. Person-based diagnostic data significantly added to the predictive power of the models.

Variation in Time of Flowering and Seed Dispersal of Eastern Cottonwood In the Lower Mississippi Valley

Treesearch

Robert E. Farmer

1966-01-01

Flowering of Populus deItoides Bartr. occurred from early March to early April; differences between trees within stands accounted for 98 percent of the significant variation in dates. High correlation (r = .91 to .96) between 1963 and 1964 dates of individual trees indicated that trees within stands flower in a predictable sequence. Seed dispersal...

An examination of social capital and social disorganisation in neighbourhoods in the British household panel study.

PubMed

McCulloch, Andrew

2003-04-01

Recent developments in social science research suggest that social environmental factors may be important for explaining community variations in health. We investigate the structural sources of two mechanisms that produce community variations in health. Using survey data collected from a representative cross-section of British households we examine variations in neighbourhood social capital and neighbourhood social disorganisation across a sample of British neighbourhoods. Adjusting for respondent's attributes, we assess the effects of neighbourhood characteristics measured by the 1991 census in Britain. The results show that concentrated affluence, residential instability and ethnic heterogeneity predict social capital for women. Population density is the only neighbourhood characteristic to predict social capital for men. For both men and women concentrated disadvantage and population density are associated with social disorganisation. Residential instability is additionally associated with social disorganisation for women. For women it was found that neighbourhood characteristics interact with individual social class in accounting for variations in social capital, the effects of neighbourhood characteristics being larger for those in professional and managerial and skilled non-manual occupations. The results show that neighbourhood structural characteristics influence social organisation processes. This helps establish a link between the structural characteristics of neighbourhoods and individual health outcomes.

Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: is tree size, age, competition or climate response most important?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foster, Jane R.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.; Banerjee, Sudipto

2016-01-01

As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests’ ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals’ size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species likeAcer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92–95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone.

Intra-population level variation in thresholds for physical dormancy-breaking temperature

PubMed Central

Liyanage, Ganesha S.; Ooi, Mark K. J.

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Intra-population variation in seed dormancy is an advantage for population persistence in unpredictable environments. The important role played by physically dormant species in these habitats makes understanding the level of variation in their dormancy a key ecological question. Heat produced in the soil is the major dormancy-breaking stimulus and, in fire prone ecosystems, soil temperatures generated by fire may vary spatially and over time. While many studies have investigated variation in initial dormancy, a measure that is of little value in fire-prone ecosystems, where initial dormancy levels are uniformly high, intra-population variation in dormancy-breaking temperature thresholds has never been quantified. This study predicted that species would display variation in dormancy-breaking temperature thresholds within populations, and investigated whether this variation occurred between individual plants from the same maternal environment. Methods The intra-population variation in dormancy-breaking thresholds of five common physically dormant shrub species (family Fabaceae) from fire-prone vegetation in south-eastern Australia was assessed using heat treatments and germination trials. Replicate batches of seeds from each of four maternal plants of Dillwynia floribunda, Viminaria juncea, Bossiaea heterophylla, Aotus ericoides and Acacia linifolia were treated at 40, 60, 80, 100 and 120 °C. Key Results Dormancy-breaking response to heat treatments varied significantly among individual plants for all species, with some individuals able to germinate after heating at low temperatures and others restricting germination to temperatures that only occur as a result of high-severity fires. Germination rate (T50) varied among individuals of three species. Conclusions Variation detected among individuals that were in close proximity to each other indicates that strong differences in dormancy-breaking temperature thresholds occur throughout the broader population. Differences found at the individual plant level could contribute to subsequent variation within the seed bank, providing a bet-hedging strategy, and represent a mechanism for increasing the probability of population persistence in the face of fire regime variability. PMID:25997432

Therapygenetics: Using genetic markers to predict response to psychological treatment for mood and anxiety disorders

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Considerable variation is evident in response to psychological therapies for mood and anxiety disorders. Genetic factors alongside environmental variables and gene-environment interactions are implicated in the etiology of these disorders and it is plausible that these same factors may also be important in predicting individual differences in response to psychological treatment. In this article, we review the evidence that genetic variation influences psychological treatment outcomes with a primary focus on mood and anxiety disorders. Unlike most past work, which has considered prediction of response to pharmacotherapy, this article reviews recent work in the field of therapygenetics, namely the role of genes in predicting psychological treatment response. As this is a field in its infancy, methodological recommendations are made and opportunities for future research are identified. PMID:23388219

Solar radiation and functional traits explain the decline of forest primary productivity along a tropical elevation gradient.

PubMed

Fyllas, Nikolaos M; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Shenkin, Alexander; Asner, Gregory P; Atkin, Owen K; Díaz, Sandra; Enquist, Brian J; Farfan-Rios, William; Gloor, Emanuel; Guerrieri, Rossella; Huasco, Walter Huaraca; Ishida, Yoko; Martin, Roberta E; Meir, Patrick; Phillips, Oliver; Salinas, Norma; Silman, Miles; Weerasinghe, Lasantha K; Zaragoza-Castells, Joana; Malhi, Yadvinder

2017-06-01

One of the major challenges in ecology is to understand how ecosystems respond to changes in environmental conditions, and how taxonomic and functional diversity mediate these changes. In this study, we use a trait-spectra and individual-based model, to analyse variation in forest primary productivity along a 3.3 km elevation gradient in the Amazon-Andes. The model accurately predicted the magnitude and trends in forest productivity with elevation, with solar radiation and plant functional traits (leaf dry mass per area, leaf nitrogen and phosphorus concentration, and wood density) collectively accounting for productivity variation. Remarkably, explicit representation of temperature variation with elevation was not required to achieve accurate predictions of forest productivity, as trait variation driven by species turnover appears to capture the effect of temperature. Our semi-mechanistic model suggests that spatial variation in traits can potentially be used to estimate spatial variation in productivity at the landscape scale. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Predicting diet and consumption rate differences between and within species using gut ecomorphology.

PubMed

Griffen, Blaine D; Mosblack, Hallie

2011-07-01

1. Rapid environmental changes and pressing human needs to forecast the consequences of environmental change are increasingly driving ecology to become a predictive science. The need for effective prediction requires both the development of new tools and the refocusing of existing tools that may have previously been used primarily for purposes other than prediction. One such tool that historically has been more descriptive in nature is ecomorphology (the study of relationships between ecological roles and morphological adaptations of species and individuals). 2. Here, we examine relationships between diet and gut morphology for 15 species of brachyuran crabs, a group of pervasive and highly successful consumers for which trophic predictions would be highly valuable. 3. We show that patterns in crab stomach volume closely match some predictions of metabolic theory and demonstrate that individual diet differences and associated morphological variation reflect, at least in some instances, individual choice or diet specialization. 4. We then present examples of how stomach volume can be used to predict both the per cent herbivory of brachyuran crabs and the relative consumption rates of individual crabs. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Fetal Heart Rate and Variability: Stability and Prediction to Developmental Outcomes in Early Childhood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DiPietro, Janet A.; Bornstein, Marc H.; Hahn, Chun-Shin; Costigan, Kathleen; Achy-Brou, Aristide

2007-01-01

Stability in cardiac indicators before birth and their utility in predicting variation in postnatal development were examined. Fetal heart rate and variability were measured longitudinally from 20 through 38 weeks gestation (n = 137) and again at age 2 (n = 79). Significant within-individual stability during the prenatal period and into childhood…

Influence of Subjectivity in Geological Mapping on the Net Penetration Rate Prediction for a Hard Rock TBM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Yongbeom; Macias, Francisco Javier; Jakobsen, Pål Drevland; Bruland, Amund

2018-05-01

The net penetration rate of hard rock tunnel boring machines (TBM) is influenced by rock mass degree of fracturing. This influence is taken into account in the NTNU prediction model by the rock mass fracturing factor ( k s). k s is evaluated by geological mapping, the measurement of the orientation of fractures and the spacing of fractures and fracture type. Geological mapping is a subjective procedure. Mapping results can therefore contain considerable uncertainty. The mapping data of a tunnel mapped by three researchers were compared, and the influence of the variation in geological mapping was estimated to assess the influence of subjectivity in geological mapping. This study compares predicted net penetration rates and actual net penetration rates for TBM tunneling (from field data) and suggests mapping methods that can reduce the error related to subjectivity. The main findings of this paper are as follows: (1) variation of mapping data between individuals; (2) effect of observed variation on uncertainty in predicted net penetration rates; (3) influence of mapping methods on the difference between predicted and actual net penetration rate.

Sand lizard (Lacerta agilis) phenology in a warming world.

PubMed

Ljungström, Gabriella; Wapstra, Erik; Olsson, Mats

2015-10-08

Present-day climate change has altered the phenology (the timing of periodic life cycle events) of many plant and animal populations worldwide. Some of these changes have been adaptive, leading to an increase in population fitness, whereas others have been associated with fitness decline. Representing short-term responses to an altered weather regime, hitherto observed changes are largely explained by phenotypic plasticity. However, to track climatically induced shifts in optimal phenotype as climate change proceeds, evolutionary capacity in key limiting climate- and fitness-related traits is likely to be crucial. In order to produce realistic predictions about the effects of climate change on species and populations, a main target for conservation biologists is thus to assess the potential of natural populations to respond by these two mechanisms. In this study we use a large 15-year dataset on an ectotherm model, the Swedish sand lizard (Lacerta agilis), to investigate how higher spring temperature is likely to affect oviposition timing in a high latitude population, a trait strongly linked to offspring fitness and survival. With an interest in both the short- and potential long-term effect of rising temperatures, we applied a random regression model, which yields estimates of population-level plasticity and among-individual variation in the average, as well as the plastic, response to temperature. Population plasticity represents capacity for short-term adjustments whereas variation among individuals in a fitness-related trait indicates an opportunity for natural selection and hence for evolutionary adaptation. The analysis revealed both population-level plasticity and individual-level variation in average laying date. In contrast, we found no evidence for variation among females in their plastic responses to spring temperature, which could demonstrate a similarity in responses amongst females, but may also be due to a lack of statistical power to detect such an effect. Our findings indicate that climate warming may have positive fitness effects in this lizard population through an advancement of oviposition date. This prediction is consistent over shorter and potentially also longer time scales as the analysis revealed both population-level plasticity and individual-level variation in average laying date. However, the genetic basis for this variation would have to be examined in order to predict an evolutionary response.

Experience during development triggers between-individual variation in behavioural plasticity.

PubMed

Urszán, Tamás János; Garamszegi, László Zsolt; Nagy, Gergely; Hettyey, Attila; Török, János; Herczeg, Gábor

2018-05-12

1.Behavioural consistency within and across behaviours (animal personality and behavioural syndrome, respectively) have been vigorously studied in the last decade, leading to the emergence of 'animal personality' research. It has been proposed recently that not only mean behaviour (behavioural type), but the environmentally induced behavioural change (behavioural plasticity) might also differ between individuals within populations. 2.While case studies presenting between-individual variation in behavioural plasticity have started to accumulate, the mechanisms behind its emergence are virtually unknown. We have recently demonstrated that ecologically relevant environmental stimuli during ontogeny are necessary for the development of animal personality and behavioural syndromes. However, it is unknown whether between-individual variation in behavioural plasticity is hard-wired or induced. 3.Here, we tested whether experience with predation during development affected predator-induced behavioural plasticity in Rana dalmatina tadpoles. We ran a common garden experiment with two ontogenetic predation treatments: tadpoles developed from hatching in either the presence or absence of olfactory predator stimuli. Then, we assayed all tadpoles repeatedly for activity and risk-taking both in the absence and presence of olfactory predator stimuli. 4. We found that (i) between-individual variation in predator-induced behavioural plasticity was present only in the group that developed in the presence of olfactory stimuli from predators and (ii) previous experience with predatory stimuli resulted in lower plastic response at the group-level. The latter pattern resulted from increased between-individual variation and not from universally lower individual responses. We also found that experience with predation during development increased the predictability (i.e. decreased the within-individual variation unrelated to environmental change) of activity, but not risk-taking. In line with this, tadpoles developing under perceived predatory risk expressed their activity with higher repeatability. 5. We suggest that ecologically relevant environmental stimuli are not only fundamental for the development of animal personality and behavioural syndromes, but also for individual variation in behavioural plasticity. Thus, experience is of central importance for the emergence of individual behavioural variation at many levels. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Individual variation in baseline and stress-induced corticosterone and prolactin levels predicts parental effort by nesting mourning doves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.; Vleck, Carol M.; Otis, David L.

2009-01-01

Endocrine systems have an important mechanistic role in structuring life-history trade-offs. During breeding, individual variation in prolactin (PRL) and corticosterone (CORT) levels affects behavioral and physiological processes that drive trade-offs between reproduction and self-maintenance. We examined patterns in baseline (BL) and stress induced (SI; level following a standard capture-restraint protocol) levels of PRL and CORT for breeding mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). We determined whether the relationship of adult condition and parental effort to hormone levels in wild birds was consistent with life-history predictions. Both BL PRL and BL CORT level in adults were positively related to nestling weight at early nestling ages, consistent with the prediction of a positive relationship of hormone levels to current parental effort of adults and associated increased energy demand. Results are consistent with the two hormones acting together at baseline levels to limit negative effects of CORT on reproduction while maintaining beneficial effects such as increased foraging for nestling feeding. Our data did not support predictions that SI responses would vary in response to nestling or adult condition. The magnitude of CORT response in the parents to our capture-restraint protocol was negatively correlated with subsequent parental effort. Average nestling weights for adults with the highest SI CORT response were on average 10–15% lighter than expected for their age in follow-up visits after the stress event. Our results demonstrated a relationship between individual hormone levels and within population variation in parental effort and suggested that hormonal control plays an important role in structuring reproductive decisions for mourning doves.

Individual variation in baseline and stress-induced corticosterone and prolactin levels predicts parental effort by nesting mourning doves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.; Vleck, Carol M.; Otis, David L.

2009-01-01

Endocrine systems have an important mechanistic role in structuring life-history trade-offs. During breeding, individual variation in prolactin (PRL) and corticosterone (CORT) levels affects behavioral and physiological processes that drive trade-offs between reproduction and self-maintenance. We examined patterns in baseline (BL) and stress induced (SI; level following a standard capture-restraint protocol) levels of PRL and CORT for breeding mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). We determined whether the relationship of adult condition and parental effort to hormone levels in wild birds was consistent with life-history predictions. Both BL PRL and BL CORT level in adults were positively related to nestling weight at early nestling ages, consistent with the prediction of a positive relationship of hormone levels to current parental effort of adults and associated increased energy demand. Results are consistent with the two hormones acting together at baseline levels to limit negative effects of CORT on reproduction while maintaining beneficial effects such as increased foraging for nestling feeding. Our data did not support predictions that SI responses would vary in response to nestling or adult condition. The magnitude of CORT response in the parents to our capture-restraint protocol was negatively correlated with subsequent parental effort. Average nestling weights for adults with the highest SI CORT response were on average 10–15% lighter than expected for their age in follow-up visits after the stress event. Our results demonstrated a relationship between individual hormone levels and within population variation in parental effort and suggested that hormonal control plays an important role in structuring reproductive decisions for mourning doves.

Shy birds play it safe: personality in captivity predicts risk responsiveness during reproduction in the wild

PubMed Central

Cole, Ella F.; Quinn, John L.

2014-01-01

Despite a growing body of evidence linking personality to life-history variation and fitness, the behavioural mechanisms underlying these relationships remain poorly understood. One mechanism thought to play a key role is how individuals respond to risk. Relatively reactive and proactive (or shy and bold) personality types are expected to differ in how they manage the inherent trade-off between productivity and survival, with bold individuals being more risk-prone with lower survival probability, and shy individuals adopting a more risk-averse strategy. In the great tit (Parus major), the shy–bold personality axis has been well characterized in captivity and linked to fitness. Here, we tested whether ‘exploration behaviour’, a captive assay of the shy–bold axis, can predict risk responsiveness during reproduction in wild great tits. Relatively slow-exploring (shy) females took longer than fast-exploring (bold) birds to resume incubation after a novel object, representing an unknown threat, was attached to their nest-box, with some shy individuals not returning within the 40 min trial period. Risk responsiveness was consistent within individuals over days. These findings provide rare, field-based experimental evidence that shy individuals prioritize survival over reproductive investment, supporting the hypothesis that personality reflects life-history variation through links with risk responsiveness. PMID:24829251

The more-individuals hypothesis revisited: the role of community abundance in species richness regulation and the productivity-diversity relationship.

PubMed

Storch, David; Bohdalková, Eliška; Okie, Jordan

2018-06-01

Species richness increases with energy availability, yet there is little consensus as to the exact processes driving this species-energy relationship. The most straightforward explanation is the more-individuals hypothesis (MIH). It states that higher energy availability promotes a higher total number of individuals in a community, which consequently increases species richness by allowing for a greater number of species with viable populations. Empirical support for the MIH is mixed, partially due to the lack of proper formalisation of the MIH and consequent confusion as to its exact predictions. Here, we review the evidence of the MIH and evaluate the reliability of various predictions that have been tested. There is only limited evidence that spatial variation in species richness is driven by variation in the total number of individuals. There are also problems with measures of energy availability, with scale-dependence, and with the direction of causality, as the total number of individuals may sometimes itself be driven by the number of species. However, even in such a case the total number of individuals may be involved in diversity regulation. We propose a formal theory that encompasses these processes, clarifying how the different factors affecting diversity dynamics can be disentangled. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Social support and anomie: a multilevel analysis of anomie in Europe and North America.

PubMed

Liqun Cao; Ruohui Zhao; Ling Ren; Zhao, Jihong Solomon

2010-08-01

On the basis of the reasoning of social support theory, the authors examine the macro effect of social support on anomie at the individual level. Data from international surveys have documented wide variation in anomie across nations, but to what extent this variation among nations can be contributed to structural characteristics has not been explored before. Using hierarchical linear modeling techniques to sort out the effects of structural context and personal characteristics on anomie across 31 European and North American nations, the authors test the hypothesis that variation in social support at the national level is inversely related to individuals' sense of anomie. The study results support the hypothesis that structural characteristics of a nation, such as social support and population growth, influence individuals' sense of anomie. At the individual level, the results are consistent with Merton's predictions about anomie and the reasoning of social support theory. Policy implication is discussed within the limitations of data.

Natal movement in juvenile Atlantic salmon: a body size-dependent strategy?

Treesearch

Sigurd Einum; Anders G. Finstad; Grethe Robertsen; Keith H. Nislow; Simon McKelvey; John D. Armstrong

2012-01-01

If competitive ability depends on body size, then the optimal natal movement from areas of high local population density can also be predicted to be size-dependent. Specifically, small, competitively-inferior individuals would be expected to benefit most from moving to areas of lower local density. Here we evaluate whether individual variation in natal movement...

Relationship status and relationship instability, but not dominance, predict individual differences in baseline cortisol levels.

PubMed

Maestripieri, Dario; Klimczuk, Amanda C E; Seneczko, Marianne; Traficonte, Daniel M; Wilson, M Claire

2013-01-01

We investigated variation in baseline cortisol levels in relation to relationship status (single or in a relationship), relationship characteristics (length, stability, presence or absence of clear dominance), or individual attributes (dominant or subordinate status, relative physical attractiveness, relationship worries). Study participants were 77 men and 75 women aged between 18 and 38 years. Individuals in romantic relationships had lower cortisol levels than singles. Individuals of African ethnicity, however, showed the opposite pattern. Individuals who perceived their relationship to be highly unstable had higher cortisol levels. Aside from African-Americans, married individuals reported the lowest relationship instability and the lowest cortisol levels, followed by individuals in long-term relationships, and by individuals in short-term relationships. The presence or absence of clear dominance in the relationship, dominance status, or relationship worries did not affect cortisol levels. Therefore relationship status and relationship instability were better predictors of variation in cortisol (presumably through stress-related mechanisms) than individual attributes.

Variability in Humoral Immunity to Measles Vaccine: New Developments

PubMed Central

Haralambieva, Iana H.; Kennedy, Richard B.; Ovsyannikova, Inna G.; Whitaker, Jennifer A.; Poland, Gregory A.

2015-01-01

Despite the existence of an effective measles vaccine, resurgence in measles cases in the United States and across Europe has occurred, including in individuals vaccinated with two doses of the vaccine. Host genetic factors result in inter-individual variation in measles vaccine-induced antibodies, and play a role in vaccine failure. Studies have identified HLA and non-HLA genetic influences that individually or jointly contribute to the observed variability in the humoral response to vaccination among healthy individuals. In this exciting era, new high-dimensional approaches and techniques including vaccinomics, systems biology, GWAS, epitope prediction and sophisticated bioinformatics/statistical algorithms, provide powerful tools to investigate immune response mechanisms to the measles vaccine. These might predict, on an individual basis, outcomes of acquired immunity post measles vaccination. PMID:26602762

The effect of individually-induced processes on image-based overlay and diffraction-based overlay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, SeungHwa; Lee, Jeongjin; Lee, Seungyoon; Hwang, Chan; Choi, Gilheyun; Kang, Ho-Kyu; Jung, EunSeung

2014-04-01

In this paper, set of wafers with separated processes was prepared and overlay measurement result was compared in two methods; IBO and DBO. Based on the experimental result, theoretical approach of relationship between overlay mark deformation and overlay variation is presented. Moreover, overlay reading simulation was used in verification and prediction of overlay variation due to deformation of overlay mark caused by induced processes. Through this study, understanding of individual process effects on overlay measurement error is given. Additionally, guideline of selecting proper overlay measurement scheme for specific layer is presented.

Individual Differences in AMY1 Gene Copy Number, Salivary α-Amylase Levels, and the Perception of Oral Starch

PubMed Central

Mandel, Abigail L.; Peyrot des Gachons, Catherine; Plank, Kimberly L.; Alarcon, Suzanne; Breslin, Paul A. S.

2010-01-01

Background The digestion of dietary starch in humans is initiated by salivary α-amylase, an endo-enzyme that hydrolyzes starch into maltose, maltotriose and larger oligosaccharides. Salivary amylase accounts for 40 to 50% of protein in human saliva and rapidly alters the physical properties of starch. Importantly, the quantity and enzymatic activity of salivary amylase show significant individual variation. However, linking variation in salivary amylase levels with the oral perception of starch has proven difficult. Furthermore, the relationship between copy number variations (CNVs) in the AMY1 gene, which influence salivary amylase levels, and starch viscosity perception has not been explored. Principal Findings Here we demonstrate that saliva containing high levels of amylase has sufficient activity to rapidly hydrolyze a viscous starch solution in vitro. Furthermore, we show with time-intensity ratings, which track the digestion of starch during oral manipulation, that individuals with high amylase levels report faster and more significant decreases in perceived starch viscosity than people with low salivary amylase levels. Finally, we demonstrate that AMY1 CNVs predict an individual's amount and activity of salivary amylase and thereby, ultimately determine their perceived rate of oral starch viscosity thinning. Conclusions By linking genetic variation and its consequent salivary enzymatic differences to the perceptual sequellae of these variations, we show that AMY1 copy number relates to salivary amylase concentration and enzymatic activity level, which, in turn, account for individual variation in the oral perception of starch viscosity. The profound individual differences in salivary amylase levels and salivary activity may contribute significantly to individual differences in dietary starch intake and, consequently, to overall nutritional status. PMID:20967220

Cohort-specific imputation of gene expression improves prediction of warfarin dose for African Americans.

PubMed

Gottlieb, Assaf; Daneshjou, Roxana; DeGorter, Marianne; Bourgeois, Stephane; Svensson, Peter J; Wadelius, Mia; Deloukas, Panos; Montgomery, Stephen B; Altman, Russ B

2017-11-24

Genome-wide association studies are useful for discovering genotype-phenotype associations but are limited because they require large cohorts to identify a signal, which can be population-specific. Mapping genetic variation to genes improves power and allows the effects of both protein-coding variation as well as variation in expression to be combined into "gene level" effects. Previous work has shown that warfarin dose can be predicted using information from genetic variation that affects protein-coding regions. Here, we introduce a method that improves dose prediction by integrating tissue-specific gene expression. In particular, we use drug pathways and expression quantitative trait loci knowledge to impute gene expression-on the assumption that differential expression of key pathway genes may impact dose requirement. We focus on 116 genes from the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic pathways of warfarin within training and validation sets comprising both European and African-descent individuals. We build gene-tissue signatures associated with warfarin dose in a cohort-specific manner and identify a signature of 11 gene-tissue pairs that significantly augments the International Warfarin Pharmacogenetics Consortium dosage-prediction algorithm in both populations. Our results demonstrate that imputed expression can improve dose prediction and bridge population-specific compositions. MATLAB code is available at https://github.com/assafgo/warfarin-cohort.

Individual variation in parental workload and breeding productivity in female European starlings: is the effort worth it?

PubMed Central

Fowler, Melinda A; Williams, Tony D

2015-01-01

We analyzed individual variation in work load (nest visit rate) during chick-rearing, and the consequences of this variation in terms of breeding productivity, in a highly synchronous breeder, the European starling (Sturnus vulgaris) focusing on female birds. There was marked (10- to 16-fold) variation in total, female and male nest visit rates, among individuals, but individual variation in female nest visit rate was independent of environment (rainfall, temperature) and metrics of individual quality (laying date, clutch size, amount of male provisioning help), and was only weakly associated with chick demand (i.e., day 6 brood size). Female nest visit rate was independent of date and experimentally delayed birds provisioned at the same rate as peak-nesting birds; supporting a lack of effect of date per se. Brood size at fledging was positively but weakly related to total nest visit rate (male + female), with >fivefold variation in nest visit rate for any given brood size, and in females brood size at fledging and chick mass at fledging were independent of female nest visit rate, that is, individual variation in workload was not associated with higher productivity. Nevertheless, nest visit rate in females was repeatable among consecutive days (6–8 posthatching), and between peak (first) and second broods, but not among years. Our data suggest that individual females behave as if committed to a certain level of parental care at the outset of their annual breeding attempt, but this varies among years, that is, behavior is not fixed throughout an individual's life but represents an annually variable decision. We suggest females are making predictable decisions about their workload during provisioning that maximizes their overall fitness based on an integration of information on their current environment (although these cues currently remain unidentified). PMID:26380688

Individual and contextual determinants of regional variation in prescription drug use: an analysis of administrative data from British Columbia.

PubMed

Morgan, Steven G; Cunningham, Colleen M; Hanley, Gillian E

2010-12-29

Increasing attention is being paid to variations in the use of prescription drugs because their role in health care has grown to the point where their use can be considered a proxy for health system performance. Studies have shown that prescription drug use varies across regions in the US, UK, and Canada by more than would be predicted based on age and health status alone. In this paper, we explore the determinants of variations in the use of prescription drugs, drawing on health services theories of access to care. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using population-based administrative health care data for British Columbia (BC), Canada. We used logistic and hierarchical regressions to analyze the effects of individual- and area-level determinants of use of prescriptions overall and rates of purchase of prescriptions from five therapeutic categories representing a range of indications: antihypertensives, statins, acid reducing drugs, opioid drugs, and antidepressants. To indicate the relative scale of regional variations and the importance of individual- and area-level variables in explaining them, we computed standardized rates of utilization for 49 local health areas in BC. We found that characteristics of individuals and the areas in which they live affect likelihood of prescription drug purchase. Individual-level factors influenced prescription drug purchases in ways generally consistent with behavioral models of health services use. Contextual variables exerted influences that differed by type of drug studied. Population health, education levels, and ethnic composition of local areas were associated with significant differences in the likelihood of purchasing medications. Relatively modest regional variations remained after both individual-level and area-level determinants were taken into account. The results of this study suggest that individual- and area-level factors should be considered when studying variations in the use of prescription drugs. Some sources of such variations, including individual- and area-level socioeconomic status, warrant further investigation and possible intervention to address inequities.

Individual and Contextual Determinants of Regional Variation in Prescription Drug Use: An Analysis of Administrative Data from British Columbia

PubMed Central

Morgan, Steven G.; Cunningham, Colleen M.; Hanley, Gillian E.

2010-01-01

Background Increasing attention is being paid to variations in the use of prescription drugs because their role in health care has grown to the point where their use can be considered a proxy for health system performance. Studies have shown that prescription drug use varies across regions in the US, UK, and Canada by more than would be predicted based on age and health status alone. In this paper, we explore the determinants of variations in the use of prescription drugs, drawing on health services theories of access to care. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using population-based administrative health care data for British Columbia (BC), Canada. We used logistic and hierarchical regressions to analyze the effects of individual- and area-level determinants of use of prescriptions overall and rates of purchase of prescriptions from five therapeutic categories representing a range of indications: antihypertensives, statins, acid reducing drugs, opioid drugs, and antidepressants. To indicate the relative scale of regional variations and the importance of individual- and area-level variables in explaining them, we computed standardized rates of utilization for 49 local health areas in BC. Results We found that characteristics of individuals and the areas in which they live affect likelihood of prescription drug purchase. Individual-level factors influenced prescription drug purchases in ways generally consistent with behavioral models of health services use. Contextual variables exerted influences that differed by type of drug studied. Population health, education levels, and ethnic composition of local areas were associated with significant differences in the likelihood of purchasing medications. Relatively modest regional variations remained after both individual-level and area-level determinants were taken into account. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that individual- and area-level factors should be considered when studying variations in the use of prescription drugs. Some sources of such variations, including individual- and area-level socioeconomic status, warrant further investigation and possible intervention to address inequities. PMID:21209960

Maintenance of genetic variation in human personality: Testing evolutionary models by estimating heritability due to common causal variants and investigating the effect of distant inbreeding

PubMed Central

Verweij, Karin J.H.; Yang, Jian; Lahti, Jari; Veijola, Juha; Hintsanen, Mirka; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Heinonen, Kati; Pouta, Anneli; Pesonen, Anu-Katriina; Widen, Elisabeth; Taanila, Anja; Isohanni, Matti; Miettunen, Jouko; Palotie, Aarno; Penke, Lars; Service, Susan K.; Heath, Andrew C.; Montgomery, Grant W.; Raitakari, Olli; Kähönen, Mika; Viikari, Jorma; Räikkönen, Katri; Eriksson, Johan G; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa; Lehtimäki, Terho; Martin, Nicholas G.; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Visscher, Peter M.; Keller, Matthew C.; Zietsch, Brendan P.

2012-01-01

Personality traits are basic dimensions of behavioural variation, and twin, family, and adoption studies show that around 30% of the between-individual variation is due to genetic variation. There is rapidly-growing interest in understanding the evolutionary basis of this genetic variation. Several evolutionary mechanisms could explain how genetic variation is maintained in traits, and each of these makes predictions in terms of the relative contribution of rare and common genetic variants to personality variation, the magnitude of nonadditive genetic influences, and whether personality is affected by inbreeding. Using genome-wide SNP data from >8,000 individuals, we estimated that little variation in the Cloninger personality dimensions (7.2% on average) is due to the combined effect of common, additive genetic variants across the genome, suggesting that most heritable variation in personality is due to rare variant effects and/or a combination of dominance and epistasis. Furthermore, higher levels of inbreeding were associated with less socially-desirable personality trait levels in three of the four personality dimensions. These findings are consistent with genetic variation in personality traits having been maintained by mutation-selection balance. PMID:23025612

Does morality have a biological basis? An empirical test of the factors governing moral sentiments relating to incest.

PubMed

Lieberman, Debra; Tooby, John; Cosmides, Leda

2003-04-22

Kin-recognition systems have been hypothesized to exist in humans, and adaptively to regulate altruism and incest avoidance among close genetic kin. This latter function allows the architecture of the kin recognition system to be mapped by quantitatively matching individual variation in opposition to incest to individual variation in developmental parameters, such as family structure and co-residence patterns. Methodological difficulties that appear when subjects are asked to disclose incestuous inclinations can be circumvented by measuring their opposition to incest in third parties, i.e. morality. This method allows a direct test of Westermarck's original hypothesis that childhood co-residence with an opposite-sex individual predicts the strength of moral sentiments regarding third-party sibling incest. Results support Westermarck's hypothesis and the model of kin recognition that it implies. Co-residence duration objectively predicts genetic relatedness, making it a reliable cue to kinship. Co-residence duration predicts the strength of opposition to incest, even after controlling for relatedness and even when co-residing individuals are genetically unrelated. This undercuts kin-recognition models requiring matching to self (through, for example, major histocompatibility complex or phenotypic markers). Subjects' beliefs about relatedness had no effect after controlling for co-residence, indicating that systems regulating kin-relevant behaviours are non-conscious, and calibrated by co-residence, not belief.

Does morality have a biological basis? An empirical test of the factors governing moral sentiments relating to incest.

PubMed Central

Lieberman, Debra; Tooby, John; Cosmides, Leda

2003-01-01

Kin-recognition systems have been hypothesized to exist in humans, and adaptively to regulate altruism and incest avoidance among close genetic kin. This latter function allows the architecture of the kin recognition system to be mapped by quantitatively matching individual variation in opposition to incest to individual variation in developmental parameters, such as family structure and co-residence patterns. Methodological difficulties that appear when subjects are asked to disclose incestuous inclinations can be circumvented by measuring their opposition to incest in third parties, i.e. morality. This method allows a direct test of Westermarck's original hypothesis that childhood co-residence with an opposite-sex individual predicts the strength of moral sentiments regarding third-party sibling incest. Results support Westermarck's hypothesis and the model of kin recognition that it implies. Co-residence duration objectively predicts genetic relatedness, making it a reliable cue to kinship. Co-residence duration predicts the strength of opposition to incest, even after controlling for relatedness and even when co-residing individuals are genetically unrelated. This undercuts kin-recognition models requiring matching to self (through, for example, major histocompatibility complex or phenotypic markers). Subjects' beliefs about relatedness had no effect after controlling for co-residence, indicating that systems regulating kin-relevant behaviours are non-conscious, and calibrated by co-residence, not belief. PMID:12737660

Food and fitness: associations between crop yields and life-history traits in a longitudinally monitored pre-industrial human population.

PubMed

Hayward, Adam D; Holopainen, Jari; Pettay, Jenni E; Lummaa, Virpi

2012-10-22

Severe food shortage is associated with increased mortality and reduced reproductive success in contemporary and historical human populations. Studies of wild animal populations have shown that subtle variation in environmental conditions can influence patterns of mortality, fecundity and natural selection, but the fitness implications of such subtle variation on human populations are unclear. Here, we use longitudinal data on local grain production, births, marriages and mortality so as to assess the impact of crop yield variation on individual age-specific mortality and fecundity in two pre-industrial Finnish populations. Although crop yields and fitness traits showed profound year-to-year variation across the 70-year study period, associations between crop yields and mortality or fecundity were generally weak. However, post-reproductive individuals of both sexes, and individuals of lower socio-economic status experienced higher mortality when crop yields were low. This is the first longitudinal, individual-based study of the associations between environmental variation and fitness traits in pre-industrial humans, which emphasizes the importance of a portfolio of mechanisms for coping with low food availability in such populations. The results are consistent with evolutionary ecological predictions that natural selection for resilience to food shortage is likely to weaken with age and be most severe on those with the fewest resources.

The importance of individual variation in the dynamics of animal collective movements.

PubMed

Del Mar Delgado, Maria; Miranda, Maria; Alvarez, Silvia J; Gurarie, Eliezer; Fagan, William F; Penteriani, Vincenzo; di Virgilio, Agustina; Morales, Juan Manuel

2018-05-19

Animal collective movements are a key example of a system that links two clearly defined levels of organization: the individual and the group. Most models investigating collective movements have generated coherent collective behaviours without the inclusion of individual variability. However, new individual-based models, together with emerging empirical information, emphasize that within-group heterogeneity may strongly influence collective movement behaviour. Here we (i) review the empirical evidence for individual variation in animal collective movements, (ii) explore how theoretical investigations have represented individual heterogeneity when modelling collective movements and (iii) present a model to show how within-group heterogeneity influences the collective properties of a group. Our review underscores the need to consider variability at the level of the individual to improve our understanding of how individual decision rules lead to emergent movement patterns, and also to yield better quantitative predictions of collective behaviour.This article is part of the theme issue 'Collective movement ecology'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Mothers' Cognitive References to 2-Year-Olds Predict Theory of Mind at Ages 6 and 10

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ensor, Rosie; Devine, Rory T.; Marks, Alex; Hughes, Claire

2014-01-01

Mothers' mental-state references predict individual differences in preschoolers' false-belief (FB) understanding; less is known about the origins of corresponding variation in school-age children. To address this gap, 105 children completed observations with their mothers at child ages 2 and 6, three FB tasks and a verbal comprehension…

Vortex wakes generated by robins Erithacus rubecula during free flight in a wind tunnel.

PubMed

Hedenström, A; Rosén, M; Spedding, G R

2006-04-22

The wakes of two individual robins were measured in digital particle image velocimetry (DPIV) experiments conducted in the Lund wind tunnel. Wake measurements were compared with each other, and with previous studies in the same facility. There was no significant individual variation in any of the measured quantities. Qualitatively, the wake structure and its gradual variation with flight speed were exactly as previously measured for the thrush nightingale. A procedure that accounts for the disparate sources of circulation spread over the complex wake structure nevertheless can account for the vertical momentum flux required to support the weight, and an example calculation is given for estimating drag from the components of horizontal momentum flux (whose net value is zero). The measured circulations of the largest structures in the wake can be predicted quite well by simple models, and expressions are given to predict these and other measurable quantities in future bird flight experiments.

Variation in probability of first reproduction of Weddell seals.

PubMed

Hadley, Gillian L; Rotella, Jay J; Garrott, Robert A; Nichols, James D

2006-09-01

1. For many species, when to begin reproduction is an important life-history decision that varies by individual and can have substantial implications for lifetime reproductive success and fitness. 2. We estimated age-specific probabilities of first-time breeding and modelled variation in these rates to determine age at first reproduction and understand why it varies in a population of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We used multistate mark-recapture modelling methods and encounter histories of 4965 known-age female seals to test predictions about age-related variation in probability of first reproduction and the effects of annual variation, cohort and population density. 3. Mean age at first reproduction in this southerly located study population (7.62 years of age, SD=1.71) was greater than age at first reproduction for a Weddell seal population at a more northerly and typical latitude for breeding Weddell seals (mean=4-5 years of age). This difference suggests that age at first reproduction may be influenced by whether a population inhabits the core or periphery of its range. 4. Age at first reproduction varied from 4 to 14 years, but there was no age by which all seals recruited to the breeding population, suggesting that individual heterogeneity exists among females in this population. 5. In the best model, the probability of breeding for the first time varied by age and year, and the amount of annual variation varied with age (average variance ratio for age-specific rates=4.3%). 6. Our results affirmed the predictions of life-history theory that age at first reproduction in long-lived mammals will be sensitive to environmental variation. In terms of life-history evolution, this variability suggests that Weddell seals display flexibility in age at first reproduction in order to maximize reproductive output under varying environmental conditions. Future analyses will attempt to test predictions regarding relationships between environmental covariates and annual variation in age at first reproduction and evaluate the relationship between age at first reproduction and lifetime reproductive success.

Rare Copy Number Deletions Predict Individual Variation in Intelligence

PubMed Central

Yeo, Ronald A.; Gangestad, Steven W.; Liu, Jingyu; Calhoun, Vince D.; Hutchison, Kent E.

2011-01-01

Phenotypic variation in human intellectual functioning shows substantial heritability, as demonstrated by a long history of behavior genetic studies. Many recent molecular genetic studies have attempted to uncover specific genetic variations responsible for this heritability, but identified effects capture little variance and have proven difficult to replicate. The present study, motivated an interest in “mutation load” emerging from evolutionary perspectives, examined the importance of the number of rare (or infrequent) copy number variations (CNVs), and the total number of base pairs included in such deletions, for psychometric intelligence. Genetic data was collected using the Illumina 1MDuoBeadChip Array from a sample of 202 adult individuals with alcohol dependence, and a subset of these (N = 77) had been administered the Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence (WASI). After removing CNV outliers, the impact of rare genetic deletions on psychometric intelligence was investigated in 74 individuals. The total length of the rare deletions significantly and negatively predicted intelligence (r = −.30, p = .01). As prior studies have indicated greater heritability in individuals with relatively higher parental socioeconomic status (SES), we also examined the impact of ethnicity (Anglo/White vs. Other), as a proxy measure of SES; these groups did not differ on any genetic variable. This categorical variable significantly moderated the effect of length of deletions on intelligence, with larger effects being noted in the Anglo/White group. Overall, these results suggest that rare deletions (between 5% and 1% population frequency or less) adversely affect intellectual functioning, and that pleotropic effects might partly account for the association of intelligence with health and mental health status. Significant limitations of this research, including issues of generalizability and CNV measurement, are discussed. PMID:21298096

Structure and mechanism of diet specialisation: testing models of individual variation in resource use with sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M. Tim; Guimarães, Paulo R.; Novak, Mark; Marquitti, Flavia Maria Darcie; Bodkin, James L.; Staedler, Michelle; Bentall, Gena B.; Estes, James A.

2012-01-01

Studies of consumer-resource interactions suggest that individual diet specialisation is empirically widespread and theoretically important to the organisation and dynamics of populations and communities. We used weighted networks to analyze the resource use by sea otters, testing three alternative models for how individual diet specialisation may arise. As expected, individual specialisation was absent when otter density was low, but increased at high-otter density. A high-density emergence of nested resource-use networks was consistent with the model assuming individuals share preference ranks. However, a density-dependent emergence of a non-nested modular network for ‘core’ resources was more consistent with the ‘competitive refuge’ model. Individuals from different diet modules showed predictable variation in rank-order prey preferences and handling times of core resources, further supporting the competitive refuge model. Our findings support a hierarchical organisation of diet specialisation and suggest individual use of core and marginal resources may be driven by different selective pressures.

Why does working memory capacity predict variation in reading comprehension? On the influence of mind wandering and executive attention.

PubMed

McVay, Jennifer C; Kane, Michael J

2012-05-01

Some people are better readers than others, and this variation in comprehension ability is predicted by measures of working memory capacity (WMC). The primary goal of this study was to investigate the mediating role of mind-wandering experiences in the association between WMC and normal individual differences in reading comprehension, as predicted by the executive-attention theory of WMC (e.g., Engle & Kane, 2004). We used a latent-variable, structural-equation-model approach, testing skilled adult readers on 3 WMC span tasks, 7 varied reading-comprehension tasks, and 3 attention-control tasks. Mind wandering was assessed using experimenter-scheduled thought probes during 4 different tasks (2 reading, 2 attention-control). The results support the executive-attention theory of WMC. Mind wandering across the 4 tasks loaded onto a single latent factor, reflecting a stable individual difference. Most important, mind wandering was a significant mediator in the relationship between WMC and reading comprehension, suggesting that the WMC-comprehension correlation is driven, in part, by attention control over intruding thoughts. We discuss implications for theories of WMC, attention control, and reading comprehension.

How does variation in the environment and individual cognition explain the existence of consistent behavioral differences?

PubMed Central

Niemelä, Petri T; Vainikka, Anssi; Forsman, Jukka T; Loukola, Olli J; Kortet, Raine

2013-01-01

According to recent studies on animal personalities, the level of behavioral plasticity, which can be viewed as the slope of the behavioral reaction norm, varies among individuals, populations, and species. Still, it is conceptually unclear how the interaction between environmental variation and variation in animal cognition affect the evolution of behavioral plasticity and expression of animal personalities. Here, we (1) use literature to review how environmental variation and individual variation in cognition explain population and individual level expression of behavioral plasticity and (2) draw together empirically yet nontested, conceptual framework to clarify how these factors affect the evolution and expression of individually consistent behavior in nature. The framework is based on simple principles: first, information acquisition requires cognition that is inherently costly to build and maintain. Second, individual differences in animal cognition affect the differences in behavioral flexibility, i.e. the variance around the mean of the behavioral reaction norm, which defines plasticity. Third, along the lines of the evolution of cognition, we predict that environments with moderate variation favor behavioral flexibility. This occurs since in those environments costs of cognition are covered by being able to recognize and use information effectively. Similarly, nonflexible, stereotypic behaviors may be favored in environments that are either invariable or highly variable, since in those environments cognition does not give any benefits to cover the costs or cognition is not able to keep up with environmental change, respectively. If behavioral plasticity develops in response to increasing environmental variability, plasticity should dominate in environments that are moderately variable, and expression of animal personalities and behavioral syndromes may differ between environments. We give suggestions how to test our hypothesis and propose improvements to current behavioral testing protocols in the field of animal personality. PMID:23467316

A person based formula for allocating commissioning funds to general practices in England: development of a statistical model

PubMed Central

Smith, Peter; Gravelle, Hugh; Martin, Steve; Bardsley, Martin; Rice, Nigel; Georghiou, Theo; Dusheiko, Mark; Billings, John; Lorenzo, Michael De; Sanderson, Colin

2011-01-01

Objectives To develop a formula for allocating resources for commissioning hospital care to all general practices in England based on the health needs of the people registered in each practice Design Multivariate prospective statistical models were developed in which routinely collected electronic information from 2005-6 and 2006-7 on individuals and the areas in which they lived was used to predict their costs of hospital care in the next year, 2007-8. Data on individuals included all diagnoses recorded at any inpatient admission. Models were developed on a random sample of 5 million people and validated on a second random sample of 5 million people and a third sample of 5 million people drawn from a random sample of practices. Setting All general practices in England as of 1 April 2007. All NHS inpatient admissions and outpatient attendances for individuals registered with a general practice on that date. Subjects All individuals registered with a general practice in England at 1 April 2007. Main outcome measures Power of the statistical models to predict the costs of the individual patient or each practice’s registered population for 2007-8 tested with a range of metrics (R2 reported here). Comparisons of predicted costs in 2007-8 with actual costs incurred in the same year were calculated by individual and by practice. Results Models including person level information (age, sex, and ICD-10 codes diagnostic recorded) and a range of area level information (such as socioeconomic deprivation and supply of health facilities) were most predictive of costs. After accounting for person level variables, area level variables added little explanatory power. The best models for resource allocation could predict upwards of 77% of the variation in costs at practice level, and about 12% at the person level. With these models, the predicted costs of about a third of practices would exceed or undershoot the actual costs by 10% or more. Smaller practices were more likely to be in these groups. Conclusions A model was developed that performed well by international standards, and could be used for allocations to practices for commissioning. The best formulas, however, could predict only about 12% of the variation in next year’s costs of most inpatient and outpatient NHS care for each individual. Person-based diagnostic data significantly added to the predictive power of the models. PMID:22110252

Towards a richer evolutionary game theory

PubMed Central

McNamara, John M.

2013-01-01

Most examples of the application of evolutionary game theory to problems in biology involve highly simplified models. I contend that it is time to move on and include much more richness in models. In particular, more thought needs to be given to the importance of (i) between-individual variation; (ii) the interaction between individuals, and hence the process by which decisions are reached; (iii) the ecological and life-history context of the situation; (iv) the traits that are under selection, and (v) the underlying psychological mechanisms that lead to behaviour. I give examples where including variation between individuals fundamentally changes predicted outcomes of a game. Variation also selects for real-time responses, again resulting in changed outcomes. Variation can select for other traits, such as choosiness and social sensitivity. More generally, many problems involve coevolution of more than one trait. I identify situations where a reductionist approach, in which a game is isolated from is ecological setting, can be misleading. I also highlight the need to consider flexibility of behaviour, mental states and other issues concerned with the evolution of mechanism. PMID:23966616

Application of bioelectrical impedance analysis in prediction of light kid carcass and muscle chemical composition.

PubMed

Silva, S R; Afonso, J; Monteiro, A; Morais, R; Cabo, A; Batista, A C; Guedes, C M; Teixeira, A

2018-06-01

Carcass data were collected from 24 kids (average live weight of 12.5±5.5 kg; range 4.5 to 22.4 kg) of Jarmelista Portuguese native breed, to evaluate bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) as a technique for prediction of light kid carcass and muscle chemical composition. Resistance (Rs, Ω) and reactance (Xc, Ω), were measured in the cold carcasses with a single frequency bioelectrical impedance analyzer and, together with impedance (Z, Ω), two electrical volume measurements (VolA and VolB, cm2/Ω), carcass cold weight (CCW), carcass compactness and several carcass linear measurements were fitted as independent variables to predict carcass composition by stepwise regression analysis. The amount of variation explained by VolA and VolB only reached a significant level (P<0.01 and P<0.05, respectively) for muscle weight, moisture, protein and fat-free soft tissue content, even so with low accuracy, with VolA providing the best results (0.326⩽R 2⩽0.366). Quite differently, individual BIA parameters (Rs, Xc and Z) explained a very large amount of variation in dissectible carcass fat weight (0.814⩽R 2⩽0.862; P<0.01). These individual BIA parameters also explained a large amount of variation in subcutaneous and intermuscular fat weights (respectively 0.749⩽R 2⩽0.793 and 0.718⩽R 2⩽0.760; P<0.01), and in muscle chemical fat weight (0.663⩽R 2⩽0.684; P<0.01). Still significant but much lower was the variation in muscle, moisture, protein and fat-free soft tissue weights (0.344⩽R 2⩽0.393; P<0.01) explained by BIA parameters. Still, the best models for estimation of muscle, moisture, protein and fat-free soft tissue weights included Rs in addition to CCW, and accounted for 97.1% to 99.8% (P<0.01) of the variation observed, with CCW by itself accounting for 97.0% to 99.6% (P<0.01) of that variation. Resistance was the only independent variable selected for the best model predicting subcutaneous fat weight. It was also selected for the best models predicting carcass fat weight (combined with carcass length, CL; R 2=0.943; P<0.01) and intermuscular fat weight (combined with CCW; R 2=0.945; P<0.01). The best model predicting muscle chemical fat weight combined CCW and Z, explaining 85.6% (P<0.01) of the variation observed. These results indicate BIA as a useful tool for prediction of light kids' carcass composition.

Population-level genetic variation and climate change in a biodiversity hotspot

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Introduction Estimated future climate scenarios can be used to predict where hotspots of endemism may occur over the next century, but life history, ecological and genetic traits will be important in informing the varying responses within myriad taxa. Essential to predicting the consequences of climate change to individual species will be an understanding of the factors that drive genetic structure within and among populations. Here, I review the factors that influence the genetic structure of plant species in California, but are applicable elsewhere; existing levels of genetic variation, life history and ecological characteristics will affect the ability of an individual taxon to persist in the presence of anthropogenic change. Factors influencing the distribution of genetic variation Persistence in the face of climate change is likely determined by life history characteristics: dispersal ability, generation time, reproductive ability, degree of habitat specialization, plant–insect interactions, existing genetic diversity and availability of habitat or migration corridors. Existing levels of genetic diversity in plant populations vary based on a number of evolutionary scenarios that include endemism, expansion since the last glacial maximum, breeding system and current range sizes. Regional priorities and examples A number of well-documented examples are provided from the California Floristic Province. Some predictions can be made for the responses of plant taxa to rapid environmental changes based on geographic position, evolutionary history, existing genetic variation, and ecological amplitude. Conclusions, Solutions and Recommendations The prediction of how species will respond to climate change will require a synthesis drawing from population genetics, geography, palaeontology and ecology. The important integration of the historical factors that have shaped the distribution and existing genetic structure of California’s plant taxa will enable us to predict and prioritize the conservation of species and areas most likely to be impacted by rapid climate change, human disturbance and invasive species. PMID:28069633

Tailor-made heart simulation predicts the effect of cardiac resynchronization therapy in a canine model of heart failure.

PubMed

Panthee, Nirmal; Okada, Jun-ichi; Washio, Takumi; Mochizuki, Youhei; Suzuki, Ryohei; Koyama, Hidekazu; Ono, Minoru; Hisada, Toshiaki; Sugiura, Seiryo

2016-07-01

Despite extensive studies on clinical indices for the selection of patient candidates for cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT), approximately 30% of selected patients do not respond to this therapy. Herein, we examined whether CRT simulations based on individualized realistic three-dimensional heart models can predict the therapeutic effect of CRT in a canine model of heart failure with left bundle branch block. In four canine models of failing heart with dyssynchrony, individualized three-dimensional heart models reproducing the electromechanical activity of each animal were created based on the computer tomographic images. CRT simulations were performed for 25 patterns of three ventricular pacing lead positions. Lead positions producing the best and the worst therapeutic effects were selected in each model. The validity of predictions was tested in acute experiments in which hearts were paced from the sites identified by simulations. We found significant correlations between the experimentally observed improvement in ejection fraction (EF) and the predicted improvements in ejection fraction (P<0.01) or the maximum value of the derivative of left ventricular pressure (P<0.01). The optimal lead positions produced better outcomes compared with the worst positioning in all dogs studied, although there were significant variations in responses. Variations in ventricular wall thickness among the dogs may have contributed to these responses. Thus CRT simulations using the individualized three-dimensional heart models can predict acute hemodynamic improvement, and help determine the optimal positions of the pacing lead. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Metabolic Model-Based Integration of Microbiome Taxonomic and Metabolomic Profiles Elucidates Mechanistic Links between Ecological and Metabolic Variation.

PubMed

Noecker, Cecilia; Eng, Alexander; Srinivasan, Sujatha; Theriot, Casey M; Young, Vincent B; Jansson, Janet K; Fredricks, David N; Borenstein, Elhanan

2016-01-01

Multiple molecular assays now enable high-throughput profiling of the ecology, metabolic capacity, and activity of the human microbiome. However, to date, analyses of such multi-omic data typically focus on statistical associations, often ignoring extensive prior knowledge of the mechanisms linking these various facets of the microbiome. Here, we introduce a comprehensive framework to systematically link variation in metabolomic data with community composition by utilizing taxonomic, genomic, and metabolic information. Specifically, we integrate available and inferred genomic data, metabolic network modeling, and a method for predicting community-wide metabolite turnover to estimate the biosynthetic and degradation potential of a given community. Our framework then compares variation in predicted metabolic potential with variation in measured metabolites' abundances to evaluate whether community composition can explain observed shifts in the community metabolome, and to identify key taxa and genes contributing to the shifts. Focusing on two independent vaginal microbiome data sets, each pairing 16S community profiling with large-scale metabolomics, we demonstrate that our framework successfully recapitulates observed variation in 37% of metabolites. Well-predicted metabolite variation tends to result from disease-associated metabolism. We further identify several disease-enriched species that contribute significantly to these predictions. Interestingly, our analysis also detects metabolites for which the predicted variation negatively correlates with the measured variation, suggesting environmental control points of community metabolism. Applying this framework to gut microbiome data sets reveals similar trends, including prediction of bile acid metabolite shifts. This framework is an important first step toward a system-level multi-omic integration and an improved mechanistic understanding of the microbiome activity and dynamics in health and disease. Studies characterizing both the taxonomic composition and metabolic profile of various microbial communities are becoming increasingly common, yet new computational methods are needed to integrate and interpret these data in terms of known biological mechanisms. Here, we introduce an analytical framework to link species composition and metabolite measurements, using a simple model to predict the effects of community ecology on metabolite concentrations and evaluating whether these predictions agree with measured metabolomic profiles. We find that a surprisingly large proportion of metabolite variation in the vaginal microbiome can be predicted based on species composition (including dramatic shifts associated with disease), identify putative mechanisms underlying these predictions, and evaluate the roles of individual bacterial species and genes. Analysis of gut microbiome data using this framework recovers similar community metabolic trends. This framework lays the foundation for model-based multi-omic integrative studies, ultimately improving our understanding of microbial community metabolism.

Metabolic Model-Based Integration of Microbiome Taxonomic and Metabolomic Profiles Elucidates Mechanistic Links between Ecological and Metabolic Variation

PubMed Central

Noecker, Cecilia; Eng, Alexander; Srinivasan, Sujatha; Theriot, Casey M.; Young, Vincent B.; Jansson, Janet K.; Fredricks, David N.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Multiple molecular assays now enable high-throughput profiling of the ecology, metabolic capacity, and activity of the human microbiome. However, to date, analyses of such multi-omic data typically focus on statistical associations, often ignoring extensive prior knowledge of the mechanisms linking these various facets of the microbiome. Here, we introduce a comprehensive framework to systematically link variation in metabolomic data with community composition by utilizing taxonomic, genomic, and metabolic information. Specifically, we integrate available and inferred genomic data, metabolic network modeling, and a method for predicting community-wide metabolite turnover to estimate the biosynthetic and degradation potential of a given community. Our framework then compares variation in predicted metabolic potential with variation in measured metabolites’ abundances to evaluate whether community composition can explain observed shifts in the community metabolome, and to identify key taxa and genes contributing to the shifts. Focusing on two independent vaginal microbiome data sets, each pairing 16S community profiling with large-scale metabolomics, we demonstrate that our framework successfully recapitulates observed variation in 37% of metabolites. Well-predicted metabolite variation tends to result from disease-associated metabolism. We further identify several disease-enriched species that contribute significantly to these predictions. Interestingly, our analysis also detects metabolites for which the predicted variation negatively correlates with the measured variation, suggesting environmental control points of community metabolism. Applying this framework to gut microbiome data sets reveals similar trends, including prediction of bile acid metabolite shifts. This framework is an important first step toward a system-level multi-omic integration and an improved mechanistic understanding of the microbiome activity and dynamics in health and disease. IMPORTANCE Studies characterizing both the taxonomic composition and metabolic profile of various microbial communities are becoming increasingly common, yet new computational methods are needed to integrate and interpret these data in terms of known biological mechanisms. Here, we introduce an analytical framework to link species composition and metabolite measurements, using a simple model to predict the effects of community ecology on metabolite concentrations and evaluating whether these predictions agree with measured metabolomic profiles. We find that a surprisingly large proportion of metabolite variation in the vaginal microbiome can be predicted based on species composition (including dramatic shifts associated with disease), identify putative mechanisms underlying these predictions, and evaluate the roles of individual bacterial species and genes. Analysis of gut microbiome data using this framework recovers similar community metabolic trends. This framework lays the foundation for model-based multi-omic integrative studies, ultimately improving our understanding of microbial community metabolism. PMID:27239563

To be so bold: boldness is repeatable and related to within individual behavioural variability in North Island robins.

PubMed

He, Ruchuan; Pagani-Núñez, Emilio; Chevallier, Clément; Barnett, Craig R A

2017-07-01

Behavioural research traditionally focusses on the mean responses of a group of individuals rather than variation in behaviour around the mean or among individuals. However, examining the variation in behaviour among and within individuals may also yield important insights into the evolution and maintenance of behaviour. Repeatability is the most commonly used measure of variability among individuals in behavioural research. However, there are other forms of variation within populations that have received less attention. One such measure is intraindividual variation in behaviour (IIV), which is a short-term fluctuation of within-individual behaviour. Such variation in behaviour might be important during interactions because it could decrease the ability of conspecific and heterospecific individuals to predict the behaviour of the subject, thus increasing the cost of the interaction. In this experiment, we made repeated measures of the latency of North Island robins to attack a prey in a novel situation (a form of boldness) and examined (i) repeatability of boldness (the propensity to take a risk), (ii) IIV of boldness, and (iii) whether there was a significant relationship between these two traits (a behavioural syndrome). We found that boldness was highly repeatable, that there were high levels of IIV in boldness, and that there was a negative relationship between boldness and IIV in boldness. This suggests that despite high levels of repeatability for this behaviour, there were also still significant differences in IIV among different individuals within the population. Moreover, bolder individuals had significantly less IIV in their boldness, which suggests that they were forming routines (which reduces behavioural variability) compared to shyer individuals. Our results definitively demonstrate that IIV itself varies across individuals and is linked with key behavioural traits, and we argue for the importance of future studies aimed at understanding its causes and consequences for behavioural interactions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Adaptation Using Environmentally Predicted Traits.

PubMed

van Heerwaarden, Joost; van Zanten, Martijn; Kruijer, Willem

2015-10-01

Current methods for studying the genetic basis of adaptation evaluate genetic associations with ecologically relevant traits or single environmental variables, under the implicit assumption that natural selection imposes correlations between phenotypes, environments and genotypes. In practice, observed trait and environmental data are manifestations of unknown selective forces and are only indirectly associated with adaptive genetic variation. In theory, improved estimation of these forces could enable more powerful detection of loci under selection. Here we present an approach in which we approximate adaptive variation by modeling phenotypes as a function of the environment and using the predicted trait in multivariate and univariate genome-wide association analysis (GWAS). Based on computer simulations and published flowering time data from the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana, we find that environmentally predicted traits lead to higher recovery of functional loci in multivariate GWAS and are more strongly correlated to allele frequencies at adaptive loci than individual environmental variables. Our results provide an example of the use of environmental data to obtain independent and meaningful information on adaptive genetic variation.

Size, sex and individual-level behaviour drive intrapopulation variation in cross-ecosystem foraging of a top-predator.

PubMed

Nifong, James C; Layman, Craig A; Silliman, Brian R

2015-01-01

Large-bodied, top-predators are often highly mobile, with the potential to provide important linkages between spatially distinct food webs. What biological factors contribute to variation in cross-ecosystem movements, however, have rarely been examined. Here, we investigated how ontogeny (body size), sex and individual-level behaviour impacts intrapopulation variation in cross-ecosystem foraging (i.e. between freshwater and marine systems), by the top-predator Alligator mississippiensis. Field surveys revealed A. mississippiensis uses marine ecosystems regularly and are abundant in estuarine tidal creeks (from 0·3 to 6·3 individuals per km of creek, n = 45 surveys). Alligator mississippiensis captured in marine/estuarine habitats were significantly larger than individuals captured in freshwater and intermediate habitats. Stomach content analysis (SCA) showed that small juveniles consumed marine/estuarine prey less frequently (6·7% of individuals) than did large juveniles (57·8%), subadult (73%), and adult (78%) size classes. Isotopic mixing model analysis (SIAR) also suggests substantial variation in use of marine/estuarine prey resources with differences among and within size classes between sexes and individuals (range of median estimates for marine/estuarine diet contribution = 0·05-0·76). These results demonstrate the importance of intrapopulation characteristics (body size, sex and individual specialization) as key determinants of the strength of predator-driven ecosystem connectivity resulting from cross-ecosystem foraging behaviours. Understanding the factors, which contribute to variation in cross-ecosystem foraging behaviours, will improve our predictive understanding of the effects of top-predators on community structure and ecosystem function. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Sensitivity of corneal biomechanical and optical behavior to material parameters using design of experiments method.

PubMed

Xu, Mengchen; Lerner, Amy L; Funkenbusch, Paul D; Richhariya, Ashutosh; Yoon, Geunyoung

2018-02-01

The optical performance of the human cornea under intraocular pressure (IOP) is the result of complex material properties and their interactions. The measurement of the numerous material parameters that define this material behavior may be key in the refinement of patient-specific models. The goal of this study was to investigate the relative contribution of these parameters to the biomechanical and optical responses of human cornea predicted by a widely accepted anisotropic hyperelastic finite element model, with regional variations in the alignment of fibers. Design of experiments methods were used to quantify the relative importance of material properties including matrix stiffness, fiber stiffness, fiber nonlinearity and fiber dispersion under physiological IOP. Our sensitivity results showed that corneal apical displacement was influenced nearly evenly by matrix stiffness, fiber stiffness and nonlinearity. However, the variations in corneal optical aberrations (refractive power and spherical aberration) were primarily dependent on the value of the matrix stiffness. The optical aberrations predicted by variations in this material parameter were sufficiently large to predict clinically important changes in retinal image quality. Therefore, well-characterized individual variations in matrix stiffness could be critical in cornea modeling in order to reliably predict optical behavior under different IOPs or after corneal surgery.

Spatial Working Memory Capacity Predicts Bias in Estimates of Location

PubMed Central

Crawford, L. Elizabeth; Landy, David H.; Salthouse, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

Spatial memory research has attributed systematic bias in location estimates to a combination of a noisy memory trace with a prior structure that people impose on the space. Little is known about intra-individual stability and inter-individual variation in these patterns of bias. In the current work we align recent empirical and theoretical work on working memory capacity limits and spatial memory bias to generate the prediction that those with lower working memory capacity will show greater bias in memory of the location of a single item. Reanalyzing data from a large study of cognitive aging, we find support for this prediction. Fitting separate models to individuals’ data revealed a surprising variety of strategies. Some were consistent with Bayesian models of spatial category use, however roughly half of participants biased estimates outward in a way not predicted by current models and others seemed to combine these strategies. These analyses highlight the importance of studying individuals when developing general models of cognition. PMID:26900708

Shape up or ship out: migratory behaviour predicts morphology across spatial scale in a freshwater fish.

PubMed

Chapman, Ben B; Hulthén, Kaj; Brönmark, Christer; Nilsson, P Anders; Skov, Christian; Hansson, Lars-Anders; Brodersen, Jakob

2015-09-01

1. Migration is a widespread phenomenon, with powerful ecological and evolutionary consequences. Morphological adaptations to reduce the energetic costs associated with migratory transport are commonly documented for migratory species. However, few studies have investigated whether variation in body morphology can be explained by variation in migratory strategy within a species. 2. We address this question in roach Rutilus rutilus, a partially migratory freshwater fish that migrates from lakes into streams during winter. We both compare body shape between populations that differ in migratory opportunity (open vs. closed lakes), and between individuals from a single population that vary in migratory propensity (migrants and residents from a partially migratory population). Following hydrodynamic theory, we posit that migrants should have a more shallow body depth, to reduce the costs associated with migrating into streams with higher flow conditions than the lakes the residents occupy all year round. 3. We find evidence both across and within populations to support our prediction, with individuals from open lakes and migrants from the partially migratory population having a more slender, shallow-bodied morphology than fish from closed lakes and all-year residents. 4. Our data suggest that a shallow body morphology is beneficial to migratory individuals and our study is one of the first to link migratory strategy and intraspecific variation in body shape. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Variations in working memory capacity predict individual differences in general learning abilities among genetically diverse mice.

PubMed

Kolata, Stefan; Light, Kenneth; Townsend, David A; Hale, Gregory; Grossman, Henya C; Matzel, Louis D

2005-11-01

Up to 50% of an individuals' performance across a wide variety of distinct cognitive tests can be accounted for by a single factor (i.e., "general intelligence"). Despite its ubiquity, the processes or mechanisms regulating this factor are a matter of considerable debate. Although it has been hypothesized that working memory may impact cognitive performance across various domains, tests have been inconclusive due to the difficulty in isolating working memory from its overlapping operations, such as verbal ability. We address this problem using genetically diverse mice, which exhibit a trait analogous to general intelligence. The general cognitive abilities of CD-1 mice were found to covary with individuals' working memory capacity, but not with variations in long-term retention. These results provide evidence that independent of verbal abilities, variations in working memory are associated with general cognitive abilities, and further, suggest a conservation across species of mechanisms and/or processes that regulate cognitive abilities.

Nest size is predicted by female identity and the local environment in the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), but is not related to the nest size of the genetic or foster mother

PubMed Central

Parker, Timothy H.; Griffith, Simon C.

2018-01-01

The potential for animals to respond to changing climates has sparked interest in intraspecific variation in avian nest structure since this may influence nest microclimate and protect eggs and offspring from inclement weather. However, there have been relatively few large-scale attempts to examine variation in nests or the determinates of individual variation in nest structure within populations. Using a set of mostly pre-registered analyses, we studied potential predictors of variation in the size of a large sample (803) of blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) nests across three breeding seasons at Wytham Woods, UK. While our pre-registered analyses found that individual females built very similar nests across years, there was no evidence in follow-up (post hoc) analyses that their nest size correlated to that of their genetic mother or, in a cross-fostering experiment, to the nest where they were reared. In further pre-registered analyses, spatial environmental variability explained nest size variability at relatively broad spatial scales, and especially strongly at the scale of individual nest boxes. Our study indicates that nest structure is a characteristic of individuals, but is not strongly heritable, indicating that it will not respond rapidly to selection. Explaining the within-individual and within-location repeatability we observed requires further study. PMID:29765658

Among-Individual Variation in Desert Iguanas (Squamata: Dipsosaurus dorsalis): Endurance Capacity Is Positively Related to Home Range Size.

PubMed

Singleton, Jennifer M; Garland, Theodore

Among species of lizards, endurance capacity measured on a motorized treadmill is positively related to daily movement distance and time spent moving, but few studies have addressed such relationships at the level of individual variation within a sex and age category in a single population. Both endurance capacity and home range size show substantial individual variation in lizards, rendering them suitable for such studies. We predicted that these traits would be positively related because endurance capacity is one of the factors that has the potential to limit home range size. We measured the endurance capacity and home range size of adult male desert iguanas (Dipsosaurus dorsalis). Lizards were field captured for measurements of endurance, and home range data were gathered using visual identification of previously marked individuals. Endurance was significantly repeatable between replicate trials, conducted 1-17 d apart ([Formula: see text] for log-transformed values, [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]). The log of the higher of two endurance trials was positively but not significantly related to log body mass. The log of home range area was positively but not significantly related to log body mass, the number of sightings, or the time span from first to last sighting. As predicted, log endurance was positively correlated with log home range area ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], one-tailed [Formula: see text]; for body-mass residual endurance values: [Formula: see text], one-tailed [Formula: see text]). These results suggest that endurance capacity may have a permissive effect on home range size. Alternatively, individuals with larger home ranges may experience training effects (phenotypic plasticity) that increase their endurance.

Widespread Site-Dependent Buffering of Human Regulatory Polymorphism

PubMed Central

Kutyavin, Tanya; Stamatoyannopoulos, John A.

2012-01-01

The average individual is expected to harbor thousands of variants within non-coding genomic regions involved in gene regulation. However, it is currently not possible to interpret reliably the functional consequences of genetic variation within any given transcription factor recognition sequence. To address this, we comprehensively analyzed heritable genome-wide binding patterns of a major sequence-specific regulator (CTCF) in relation to genetic variability in binding site sequences across a multi-generational pedigree. We localized and quantified CTCF occupancy by ChIP-seq in 12 related and unrelated individuals spanning three generations, followed by comprehensive targeted resequencing of the entire CTCF–binding landscape across all individuals. We identified hundreds of variants with reproducible quantitative effects on CTCF occupancy (both positive and negative). While these effects paralleled protein–DNA recognition energetics when averaged, they were extensively buffered by striking local context dependencies. In the significant majority of cases buffering was complete, resulting in silent variants spanning every position within the DNA recognition interface irrespective of level of binding energy or evolutionary constraint. The prevalence of complex partial or complete buffering effects severely constrained the ability to predict reliably the impact of variation within any given binding site instance. Surprisingly, 40% of variants that increased CTCF occupancy occurred at positions of human–chimp divergence, challenging the expectation that the vast majority of functional regulatory variants should be deleterious. Our results suggest that, even in the presence of “perfect” genetic information afforded by resequencing and parallel studies in multiple related individuals, genomic site-specific prediction of the consequences of individual variation in regulatory DNA will require systematic coupling with empirical functional genomic measurements. PMID:22457641

Modeling the influence of genetic and environmental variation on the expression of plant life cycles across landscapes.

PubMed

Burghardt, Liana T; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Wilczek, Amity M; Schmitt, Johanna; Donohue, Kathleen

2015-02-01

Organisms develop through multiple life stages that differ in environmental tolerances. The seasonal timing, or phenology, of life-stage transitions determines the environmental conditions to which each life stage is exposed and the length of time required to complete a generation. Both environmental and genetic factors contribute to phenological variation, yet predicting their combined effect on life cycles across a geographic range remains a challenge. We linked submodels of the plasticity of individual life stages to create an integrated model that predicts life-cycle phenology in complex environments. We parameterized the model for Arabidopsis thaliana and simulated life cycles in four locations. We compared multiple "genotypes" by varying two parameters associated with natural genetic variation in phenology: seed dormancy and floral repression. The model predicted variation in life cycles across locations that qualitatively matches observed natural phenology. Seed dormancy had larger effects on life-cycle length than floral repression, and results suggest that a genetic cline in dormancy maintains a life-cycle length of 1 year across the geographic range of this species. By integrating across life stages, this approach demonstrates how genetic variation in one transition can influence subsequent transitions and the geographic distribution of life cycles more generally.

A principle of organization which facilitates broad Lamarckian-like adaptations by improvisation.

PubMed

Soen, Yoav; Knafo, Maor; Elgart, Michael

2015-12-02

During the lifetime of an organism, every individual encounters many combinations of diverse changes in the somatic genome, epigenome and microbiome. This gives rise to many novel combinations of internal failures which are unique to each individual. How any individual can tolerate this high load of new, individual-specific scenarios of failure is not clear. While stress-induced plasticity and hidden variation have been proposed as potential mechanisms of tolerance, the main conceptual problem remains unaddressed, namely: how largely non-beneficial random variation can be rapidly and safely organized into net benefits to every individual. We propose an organizational principle which explains how every individual can alleviate a high load of novel stressful scenarios using many random variations in flexible and inherently less harmful traits. Random changes which happen to reduce stress, benefit the organism and decrease the drive for additional changes. This adaptation (termed 'Adaptive Improvisation') can be further enhanced, propagated, stabilized and memorized when beneficial changes reinforce themselves by auto-regulatory mechanisms. This principle implicates stress not only in driving diverse variations in cells tissues and organs, but also in organizing these variations into adaptive outcomes. Specific (but not exclusive) examples include stress reduction by rapid exchange of mobile genetic elements (or exosomes) in unicellular, and rapid changes in the symbiotic microorganisms of animals. In all cases, adaptive changes can be transmitted across generations, allowing rapid improvement and assimilation in a few generations. We provide testable predictions derived from the hypothesis. The hypothesis raises a critical, but thus far overlooked adaptation problem and explains how random variation can self-organize to confer a wide range of individual-specific adaptations beyond the existing outcomes of natural selection. It portrays gene regulation as an inseparable synergy between natural selection and adaptation by improvisation. The latter provides a basis for Lamarckian adaptation that is not limited to a specific mechanism and readily accounts for the remarkable resistance of tumors to treatment.

Robust inference of population structure for ancestry prediction and correction of stratification in the presence of relatedness.

PubMed

Conomos, Matthew P; Miller, Michael B; Thornton, Timothy A

2015-05-01

Population structure inference with genetic data has been motivated by a variety of applications in population genetics and genetic association studies. Several approaches have been proposed for the identification of genetic ancestry differences in samples where study participants are assumed to be unrelated, including principal components analysis (PCA), multidimensional scaling (MDS), and model-based methods for proportional ancestry estimation. Many genetic studies, however, include individuals with some degree of relatedness, and existing methods for inferring genetic ancestry fail in related samples. We present a method, PC-AiR, for robust population structure inference in the presence of known or cryptic relatedness. PC-AiR utilizes genome-screen data and an efficient algorithm to identify a diverse subset of unrelated individuals that is representative of all ancestries in the sample. The PC-AiR method directly performs PCA on the identified ancestry representative subset and then predicts components of variation for all remaining individuals based on genetic similarities. In simulation studies and in applications to real data from Phase III of the HapMap Project, we demonstrate that PC-AiR provides a substantial improvement over existing approaches for population structure inference in related samples. We also demonstrate significant efficiency gains, where a single axis of variation from PC-AiR provides better prediction of ancestry in a variety of structure settings than using 10 (or more) components of variation from widely used PCA and MDS approaches. Finally, we illustrate that PC-AiR can provide improved population stratification correction over existing methods in genetic association studies with population structure and relatedness. © 2015 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Model-Based Individualized Treatment of Chemotherapeutics: Bayesian Population Modeling and Dose Optimization

PubMed Central

Jayachandran, Devaraj; Laínez-Aguirre, José; Rundell, Ann; Vik, Terry; Hannemann, Robert; Reklaitis, Gintaras; Ramkrishna, Doraiswami

2015-01-01

6-Mercaptopurine (6-MP) is one of the key drugs in the treatment of many pediatric cancers, auto immune diseases and inflammatory bowel disease. 6-MP is a prodrug, converted to an active metabolite 6-thioguanine nucleotide (6-TGN) through enzymatic reaction involving thiopurine methyltransferase (TPMT). Pharmacogenomic variation observed in the TPMT enzyme produces a significant variation in drug response among the patient population. Despite 6-MP’s widespread use and observed variation in treatment response, efforts at quantitative optimization of dose regimens for individual patients are limited. In addition, research efforts devoted on pharmacogenomics to predict clinical responses are proving far from ideal. In this work, we present a Bayesian population modeling approach to develop a pharmacological model for 6-MP metabolism in humans. In the face of scarcity of data in clinical settings, a global sensitivity analysis based model reduction approach is used to minimize the parameter space. For accurate estimation of sensitive parameters, robust optimal experimental design based on D-optimality criteria was exploited. With the patient-specific model, a model predictive control algorithm is used to optimize the dose scheduling with the objective of maintaining the 6-TGN concentration within its therapeutic window. More importantly, for the first time, we show how the incorporation of information from different levels of biological chain-of response (i.e. gene expression-enzyme phenotype-drug phenotype) plays a critical role in determining the uncertainty in predicting therapeutic target. The model and the control approach can be utilized in the clinical setting to individualize 6-MP dosing based on the patient’s ability to metabolize the drug instead of the traditional standard-dose-for-all approach. PMID:26226448

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Noecker, Cecilia; Eng, Alexander; Srinivasan, Sujatha

ABSTRACT Multiple molecular assays now enable high-throughput profiling of the ecology, metabolic capacity, and activity of the human microbiome. However, to date, analyses of such multi-omic data typically focus on statistical associations, often ignoring extensive prior knowledge of the mechanisms linking these various facets of the microbiome. Here, we introduce a comprehensive framework to systematically link variation in metabolomic data with community composition by utilizing taxonomic, genomic, and metabolic information. Specifically, we integrate available and inferred genomic data, metabolic network modeling, and a method for predicting community-wide metabolite turnover to estimate the biosynthetic and degradation potential of a given community.more » Our framework then compares variation in predicted metabolic potential with variation in measured metabolites’ abundances to evaluate whether community composition can explain observed shifts in the community metabolome, and to identify key taxa and genes contributing to the shifts. Focusing on two independent vaginal microbiome data sets, each pairing 16S community profiling with large-scale metabolomics, we demonstrate that our framework successfully recapitulates observed variation in 37% of metabolites. Well-predicted metabolite variation tends to result from disease-associated metabolism. We further identify several disease-enriched species that contribute significantly to these predictions. Interestingly, our analysis also detects metabolites for which the predicted variation negatively correlates with the measured variation, suggesting environmental control points of community metabolism. Applying this framework to gut microbiome data sets reveals similar trends, including prediction of bile acid metabolite shifts. This framework is an important first step toward a system-level multi-omic integration and an improved mechanistic understanding of the microbiome activity and dynamics in health and disease. IMPORTANCEStudies characterizing both the taxonomic composition and metabolic profile of various microbial communities are becoming increasingly common, yet new computational methods are needed to integrate and interpret these data in terms of known biological mechanisms. Here, we introduce an analytical framework to link species composition and metabolite measurements, using a simple model to predict the effects of community ecology on metabolite concentrations and evaluating whether these predictions agree with measured metabolomic profiles. We find that a surprisingly large proportion of metabolite variation in the vaginal microbiome can be predicted based on species composition (including dramatic shifts associated with disease), identify putative mechanisms underlying these predictions, and evaluate the roles of individual bacterial species and genes. Analysis of gut microbiome data using this framework recovers similar community metabolic trends. This framework lays the foundation for model-based multi-omic integrative studies, ultimately improving our understanding of microbial community metabolism.« less

The role of individualism and the Five-Factor Model in the prediction of performance in a leaderless group discussion.

PubMed

Waldman, David A; Atwater, Leanne E; Davidson, Ronald A

2004-02-01

Personality has seen a resurgence in the work performance literature. The Five-Factor Model (FFM) represents a set of personality factors that has received the most attention in recent years. Despite its popularity, the FFM may not be sufficiently comprehensive to account for relevant variation across performance dimensions or tasks. Accordingly, the present study also considers how individualism may predict additional variance in performance beyond the FFM. The study involved 152 undergraduate students who experienced a leaderless group discussion (LGD) exercise. Results showed that while the FFM accounted for variance in students' LGD performance, individualism (independence) accounted for additional, unique variance. Furthermore, analyses of the group compositions revealed curvilinear relationships between the relative amount of extraversion, conscientiousness, and individualism in relation to group-level performance.

The Role of Individual Traits and Environmental Factors for Diet Composition of Sheep

PubMed Central

Mysterud, Atle; Austrheim, Gunnar

2016-01-01

Large herbivore consumption of forage is known to affect vegetation composition and thereby ecosystem functions. It is thus important to understand how diet composition arises as a mixture of individual variation in preferences and environmental drivers of availability, but few studies have quantified both. Based on 10 years of data on diet composition by aid of microhistological analysis for sheep kept at high and low population density, we analysed how both individual traits (sex, age, body mass, litter size) linked to preference and environmental variation (density, climate proxies) linked to forage availability affected proportional intake of herbs (high quality/low availability) and Avenella flexuosa (lower quality/high availability). Environmental factors affecting current forage availability such as population density and seasonal and annual variation in diet had the most marked impact on diet composition. Previous environment of sheep (switch between high and low population density) had no impact on diet, suggesting a comparably minor role of learning for density dependent diet selection. For individual traits, only the difference between lambs and ewes affected proportion of A. flexuosa, while body mass better predicted proportion of herbs in diet. Neither sex, body mass, litter size, ewe age nor mass of ewe affected diet composition of lambs, and there was no effect of age, body mass or litter size on diet composition of ewes. Our study highlights that diet composition arises from a combination of preferences being predicted by lamb and ewes’ age and/or body mass differences, and the immediate environment in terms of population density and proxies for vegetation development. PMID:26731411

Effects of resource variation during early life and adult social environment on contest outcomes in burying beetles: a context-dependent silver spoon strategy?

PubMed

Hopwood, Paul E; Moore, Allen J; Royle, Nick J

2014-06-22

Good early nutritional conditions may confer a lasting fitness advantage over individuals suffering poor early conditions (a 'silver spoon' effect). Alternatively, if early conditions predict the likely adult environment, adaptive plastic responses might maximize individual performance when developmental and adult conditions match (environmental-matching effect). Here, we test for silver spoon and environmental-matching effects by manipulating the early nutritional environment of Nicrophorus vespilloides burying beetles. We manipulated nutrition during two specific early developmental windows: the larval environment and the post-eclosion environment. We then tested contest success in relation to variation in adult social environmental quality experienced (defined according to whether contest opponents were smaller (good environment) or larger (poor environment) than the focal individual). Variation in the larval environment influenced adult body size but not contest success per se for a given adult social environment experienced (an 'indirect' silver spoon effect). Variation in post-eclosion environment affected contest success dependent on the quality of the adult environment experienced (a context-dependent 'direct' silver spoon effect). By contrast, there was no evidence for environmental-matching. The results demonstrate the importance of social environmental context in determining how variation in nutrition in early life affects success as an adult.

Rare variation facilitates inferences of fine-scale population structure in humans.

PubMed

O'Connor, Timothy D; Fu, Wenqing; Mychaleckyj, Josyf C; Logsdon, Benjamin; Auer, Paul; Carlson, Christopher S; Leal, Suzanne M; Smith, Joshua D; Rieder, Mark J; Bamshad, Michael J; Nickerson, Deborah A; Akey, Joshua M

2015-03-01

Understanding the genetic structure of human populations has important implications for the design and interpretation of disease mapping studies and reconstructing human evolutionary history. To date, inferences of human population structure have primarily been made with common variants. However, recent large-scale resequencing studies have shown an abundance of rare variation in humans, which may be particularly useful for making inferences of fine-scale population structure. To this end, we used an information theory framework and extensive coalescent simulations to rigorously quantify the informativeness of rare and common variation to detect signatures of fine-scale population structure. We show that rare variation affords unique insights into patterns of recent population structure. Furthermore, to empirically assess our theoretical findings, we analyzed high-coverage exome sequences in 6,515 European and African American individuals. As predicted, rare variants are more informative than common polymorphisms in revealing a distinct cluster of European-American individuals, and subsequent analyses demonstrate that these individuals are likely of Ashkenazi Jewish ancestry. Our results provide new insights into the population structure using rare variation, which will be an important factor to account for in rare variant association studies. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Tolerance and potential for adaptation of a Baltic Sea rockweed under predicted climate change conditions.

PubMed

Rugiu, Luca; Manninen, Iita; Rothäusler, Eva; Jormalainen, Veijo

2018-03-01

Climate change is threating species' persistence worldwide. To predict species responses to climate change we need information not just on their environmental tolerance but also on its adaptive potential. We tested how the foundation species of rocky littoral habitats, Fucus vesiculosus, responds to combined hyposalinity and warming projected to the Baltic Sea by 2070-2099. We quantified responses of replicated populations originating from the entrance, central, and marginal Baltic regions. Using replicated individuals, we tested for the presence of within-population tolerance variation. Future conditions hampered growth and survival of the central and marginal populations whereas the entrance populations fared well. Further, both the among- and within-population variation in responses to climate change indicated existence of genetic variation in tolerance. Such standing genetic variation provides the raw material necessary for adaptation to a changing environment, which may eventually ensure the persistence of the species in the inner Baltic Sea. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Language-independent talker-specificity in first-language and second-language speech production by bilingual talkers: L1 speaking rate predicts L2 speaking rate

PubMed Central

Bradlow, Ann R.; Kim, Midam; Blasingame, Michael

2017-01-01

Second-language (L2) speech is consistently slower than first-language (L1) speech, and L1 speaking rate varies within- and across-talkers depending on many individual, situational, linguistic, and sociolinguistic factors. It is asked whether speaking rate is also determined by a language-independent talker-specific trait such that, across a group of bilinguals, L1 speaking rate significantly predicts L2 speaking rate. Two measurements of speaking rate were automatically extracted from recordings of read and spontaneous speech by English monolinguals (n = 27) and bilinguals from ten L1 backgrounds (n = 86): speech rate (syllables/second), and articulation rate (syllables/second excluding silent pauses). Replicating prior work, L2 speaking rates were significantly slower than L1 speaking rates both across-groups (monolinguals' L1 English vs bilinguals' L2 English), and across L1 and L2 within bilinguals. Critically, within the bilingual group, L1 speaking rate significantly predicted L2 speaking rate, suggesting that a significant portion of inter-talker variation in L2 speech is derived from inter-talker variation in L1 speech, and that individual variability in L2 spoken language production may be best understood within the context of individual variability in L1 spoken language production. PMID:28253679

Vortex wakes generated by robins Erithacus rubecula during free flight in a wind tunnel

PubMed Central

Hedenström, A; Rosén, M; Spedding, G.R

2005-01-01

The wakes of two individual robins were measured in digital particle image velocimetry (DPIV) experiments conducted in the Lund wind tunnel. Wake measurements were compared with each other, and with previous studies in the same facility. There was no significant individual variation in any of the measured quantities. Qualitatively, the wake structure and its gradual variation with flight speed were exactly as previously measured for the thrush nightingale. A procedure that accounts for the disparate sources of circulation spread over the complex wake structure nevertheless can account for the vertical momentum flux required to support the weight, and an example calculation is given for estimating drag from the components of horizontal momentum flux (whose net value is zero). The measured circulations of the largest structures in the wake can be predicted quite well by simple models, and expressions are given to predict these and other measurable quantities in future bird flight experiments. PMID:16849236

Importance of Multimodal MRI in Characterizing Brain Tissue and Its Potential Application for Individual Age Prediction.

PubMed

Cherubini, Andrea; Caligiuri, Maria Eugenia; Peran, Patrice; Sabatini, Umberto; Cosentino, Carlo; Amato, Francesco

2016-09-01

This study presents a voxel-based multiple regression analysis of different magnetic resonance image modalities, including anatomical T1-weighted, T2(*) relaxometry, and diffusion tensor imaging. Quantitative parameters sensitive to complementary brain tissue alterations, including morphometric atrophy, mineralization, microstructural damage, and anisotropy loss, were compared in a linear physiological aging model in 140 healthy subjects (range 20-74 years). The performance of different predictors and the identification of the best biomarker of age-induced structural variation were compared without a priori anatomical knowledge. The best quantitative predictors in several brain regions were iron deposition and microstructural damage, rather than macroscopic tissue atrophy. Age variations were best resolved with a combination of markers, suggesting that multiple predictors better capture age-induced tissue alterations. The results of the linear model were used to predict apparent age in different regions of individual brain. This approach pointed to a number of novel applications that could potentially help highlighting areas particularly vulnerable to disease.

Individual Differences in Newborn Visual Attention Associate with Temperament and Behavioral Difficulties in Later Childhood.

PubMed

Papageorgiou, Kostas A; Farroni, Teresa; Johnson, Mark H; Smith, Tim J; Ronald, Angelica

2015-06-25

Recently it was shown that individual differences in attention style in infants are associated with childhood effortful control, surgency, and hyperactivity-inattention. Here we investigated whether effortful control, surgency and behavioral problems in childhood can be predicted even earlier, from individual differences in newborns' average duration of gaze to stimuli. Eighty newborns participated in visual preference and habituation studies. Parents completed questionnaires at follow up (mean age = 7.5 years, SD = 1.0 year). Newborns' average dwell time was negatively associated with childhood surgency (β = -.25, R(2) = .04, p = .02) and total behavioral difficulties (β = -.28, R(2) = .05, p = .04) but not with effortful control (β = .03, R(2) = .001, p = .76). Individual differences in newborn visual attention significantly associated with individual variation in childhood surgency and behavioral problems, showing that some of the factors responsible for this variation are present at birth.

Individual Differences in Newborn Visual Attention Associate with Temperament and Behavioral Difficulties in Later Childhood

PubMed Central

Papageorgiou, Kostas A.; Farroni, Teresa; Johnson, Mark H.; Smith, Tim J.; Ronald, Angelica

2015-01-01

Recently it was shown that individual differences in attention style in infants are associated with childhood effortful control, surgency, and hyperactivity-inattention. Here we investigated whether effortful control, surgency and behavioral problems in childhood can be predicted even earlier, from individual differences in newborns’ average duration of gaze to stimuli. Eighty newborns participated in visual preference and habituation studies. Parents completed questionnaires at follow up (mean age = 7.5 years, SD = 1.0 year). Newborns’ average dwell time was negatively associated with childhood surgency (β = −.25, R2 = .04, p = .02) and total behavioral difficulties (β = −.28, R2 = .05, p = .04) but not with effortful control (β = .03, R2 = .001, p = .76). Individual differences in newborn visual attention significantly associated with individual variation in childhood surgency and behavioral problems, showing that some of the factors responsible for this variation are present at birth. PMID:26110979

Prediction of Mass Evaporation of During Measurements of Thermophysical Properties Using an Electrostatic Levitator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Matson, D. M.

2014-10-01

This paper describes the prediction of mass evaporation of at% alloys during thermophysical property measurements using the electrostatic levitator at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL. The final mass, final composition, and activity of individual component are considered in the calculation of mass evaporation. The predicted reduction in mass and variation in composition are validated with six ESL samples which underwent different thermal cycles. The predicted mass evaporation and composition shift show good agreement with experiments with the maximum relative errors of 4.8 % and 1.7 %, respectively.

Mass and energy budgets of animals: Behavioral and ecological implications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porter, W.P.

1991-11-01

The two major aims of our lab are as follows: First, to develop and field-test general mechanistic models that predict animal life history characteristics as influenced by climate and the physical, physiological behavioral characteristics of species. This involves: understanding how animal time and energy budgets are affected by climate and animal properties; predicting growth and reproductive potential from time and energy budgets; predicting mortality based on climate and time and energy budgets; and linking these individual based models to population dynamics. Second to conduct empirical studies of animal physiological ecology, particularly the effects of temperature on time and energy budgets.more » The physiological ecology of individual animals is the key link between the physical environment and population-level phenomena. We address the macroclimate to microclimate linkage on a broad spatial scale; address the links between individuals and population dynamics for lizard species; test the endotherm energetics and behavior model using beaver; address the spatial variation in climate and its effects on individual energetics, growth and reproduction; and address patchiness in the environment and constraints they may impose on individual energetics, growth and reproduction. These projects are described individually in the following section. 24 refs., 9 figs.« less

Why Does Working Memory Capacity Predict Variation in Reading Comprehension? On the Influence of Mind Wandering and Executive Attention

PubMed Central

McVay, Jennifer C.; Kane, Michael J.

2012-01-01

Some people are better readers than others, and this variation in comprehension ability is predicted by measures of working memory capacity (WMC). The primary goal of this study was to investigate the mediating role of mind wandering experiences in the association between WMC and normal individual differences in reading comprehension, as predicted by the executive-attention theory of WMC (e.g., Engle & Kane, 2004). We used a latent-variable, structural-equation-model approach, testing skilled adult readers on three WMC span tasks, seven varied reading comprehension tasks, and three attention-control tasks. Mind wandering was assessed using experimenter-scheduled thought probes during four different tasks (two reading, two attention-control tasks). The results support the executive-attention theory of WMC. Mind wandering across the four tasks loaded onto a single latent factor, reflecting a stable individual difference. Most importantly, mind wandering was a significant mediator in the relationship between WMC and reading comprehension, suggesting that the WMC-comprehension correlation is driven, in part, by attention control over intruding thoughts. We discuss implications for theories of WMC, attention control, and reading comprehension. PMID:21875246

Heart Rate Variability Moderates the Association Between Separation-Related Psychological Distress and Blood Pressure Reactivity Over Time.

PubMed

Bourassa, Kyle J; Hasselmo, Karen; Sbarra, David A

2016-08-01

Divorce is a stressor associated with long-term health risk, though the mechanisms of this effect are poorly understood. Cardiovascular reactivity is one biological pathway implicated as a predictor of poor long-term health after divorce. A sample of recently separated and divorced adults (N = 138) was assessed over an average of 7.5 months to explore whether individual differences in heart rate variability-assessed by respiratory sinus arrhythmia-operate in combination with subjective reports of separation-related distress to predict prospective changes in cardiovascular reactivity, as indexed by blood pressure reactivity. Participants with low resting respiratory sinus arrhythmia at baseline showed no association between divorce-related distress and later blood pressure reactivity, whereas participants with high respiratory sinus arrhythmia showed a positive association. In addition, within-person variation in respiratory sinus arrhythmia and between-persons variation in separation-related distress interacted to predict blood pressure reactivity at each laboratory visit. Individual differences in heart rate variability and subjective distress operate together to predict cardiovascular reactivity and may explain some of the long-term health risk associated with divorce. © The Author(s) 2016.

Variation in probability of first reproduction of Weddell seals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hadley, G.L.; Rotella, J.J.; Garrott, R.A.; Nichols, J.D.

2006-01-01

Summary 1. For many species, when to begin reproduction is an important life-history decision that varies by individual and can have substantial implications for lifetime reproductive success and fitness. 2. We estimated age-specific probabilities of first-time breeding and modelled variation in these rates to determine age at first reproduction and understand why it varies in a population of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We used multistate mark?recapture modelling methods and encounter histories of 4965 known-age female seals to test predictions about age-related variation in probability of first reproduction and the effects of annual variation, cohort and population density. 3. Mean age at first reproduction in this southerly located study population (7.62 years of age, SD =1.71) was greater than age at first reproduction for a Weddell seal population at a more northerly and typical latitude for breeding Weddell seals (mean =4?5 years of age). This difference suggests that age at first reproduction may be influenced by whether a population inhabits the core or periphery of its range. 4. Age at first reproduction varied from 4 to 14 years, but there was no age by which all seals recruited to the breeding population, suggesting that individual heterogeneity exists among females in this population. 5. In the best model, the probability of breeding for the first time varied by age and year, and the amount of annual variation varied with age (average variance ratio for age-specific rates =4.3%). 6. Our results affirmed the predictions of life-history theory that age at first reproduction in long-lived mammals will be sensitive to environmental variation. In terms of life history evolution, this variability suggests that Weddell seals display flexibility in age at first reproduction in order to maximize reproductive output under varying environmental conditions. Future analyses will attempt to test predictions regarding relationships between environmental covariates and annual variation in age at first reproduction and evaluate the relationship between age at first reproduction and lifetime reproductive success.

Cognitive Modeling of Individual Variation in Reference Production and Comprehension

PubMed Central

Hendriks, Petra

2016-01-01

A challenge for most theoretical and computational accounts of linguistic reference is the observation that language users vary considerably in their referential choices. Part of the variation observed among and within language users and across tasks may be explained from variation in the cognitive resources available to speakers and listeners. This paper presents a computational model of reference production and comprehension developed within the cognitive architecture ACT-R. Through simulations with this ACT-R model, it is investigated how cognitive constraints interact with linguistic constraints and features of the linguistic discourse in speakers’ production and listeners’ comprehension of referring expressions in specific tasks, and how this interaction may give rise to variation in referential choice. The ACT-R model of reference explains and predicts variation among language users in their referential choices as a result of individual and task-related differences in processing speed and working memory capacity. Because of limitations in their cognitive capacities, speakers sometimes underspecify or overspecify their referring expressions, and listeners sometimes choose incorrect referents or are overly liberal in their interpretation of referring expressions. PMID:27092101

Linking body mass and group dynamics in an obligate cooperative breeder.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Bateman, Andrew W; English, Sinead; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2014-11-01

Social and environmental factors influence key life-history processes and population dynamics by affecting fitness-related phenotypic traits such as body mass. The role of body mass is particularly pronounced in cooperative breeders due to variation in social status and consequent variation in access to resources. Investigating the mechanisms underlying variation in body mass and its demographic consequences can help elucidate how social and environmental factors affect the dynamics of cooperatively breeding populations. In this study, we present an analysis of the effect of individual variation in body mass on the temporal dynamics of group size and structure of a cooperatively breeding mongoose, the Kalahari meerkat, Suricata suricatta. First, we investigate how body mass interacts with social (dominance status and number of helpers) and environmental (rainfall and season) factors to influence key life-history processes (survival, growth, emigration and reproduction) in female meerkats. Next, using an individual-based population model, we show that the models explicitly including individual variation in body mass predict group dynamics better than those ignoring this morphological trait. Body mass influences group dynamics mainly through its effects on helper emigration and dominant reproduction. Rainfall has a trait-mediated, destabilizing effect on group dynamics, whereas the number of helpers has a direct and stabilizing effect. Counteracting effects of number of helpers on different demographic rates, despite generating temporal fluctuations, stabilizes group dynamics in the long term. Our study demonstrates that social and environmental factors interact to produce individual variation in body mass and accounting for this variation helps to explain group dynamics in this cooperatively breeding population. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Ready or Not: Microbial Adaptive Responses in Dynamic Symbiosis Environments.

PubMed

Cao, Mengyi; Goodrich-Blair, Heidi

2017-08-01

In mutually beneficial and pathogenic symbiotic associations, microbes must adapt to the host environment for optimal fitness. Both within an individual host and during transmission between hosts, microbes are exposed to temporal and spatial variation in environmental conditions. The phenomenon of phenotypic variation, in which different subpopulations of cells express distinctive and potentially adaptive characteristics, can contribute to microbial adaptation to a lifestyle that includes rapidly changing environments. The environments experienced by a symbiotic microbe during its life history can be erratic or predictable, and each can impact the evolution of adaptive responses. In particular, the predictability of a rhythmic or cyclical series of environments may promote the evolution of signal transduction cascades that allow preadaptive responses to environments that are likely to be encountered in the future, a phenomenon known as adaptive prediction. In this review, we summarize environmental variations known to occur in some well-studied models of symbiosis and how these may contribute to the evolution of microbial population heterogeneity and anticipatory behavior. We provide details about the symbiosis between Xenorhabdus bacteria and Steinernema nematodes as a model to investigate the concept of environmental adaptation and adaptive prediction in a microbial symbiosis. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Uncertainty analysis of the nonideal competitive adsorption-donnan model: effects of dissolved organic matter variability on predicted metal speciation in soil solution.

PubMed

Groenenberg, Jan E; Koopmans, Gerwin F; Comans, Rob N J

2010-02-15

Ion binding models such as the nonideal competitive adsorption-Donnan model (NICA-Donnan) and model VI successfully describe laboratory data of proton and metal binding to purified humic substances (HS). In this study model performance was tested in more complex natural systems. The speciation predicted with the NICA-Donnan model and the associated uncertainty were compared with independent measurements in soil solution extracts, including the free metal ion activity and fulvic (FA) and humic acid (HA) fractions of dissolved organic matter (DOM). Potentially important sources of uncertainty are the DOM composition and the variation in binding properties of HS. HS fractions of DOM in soil solution extracts varied between 14 and 63% and consisted mainly of FA. Moreover, binding parameters optimized for individual FA samples show substantial variation. Monte Carlo simulations show that uncertainties in predicted metal speciation, for metals with a high affinity for FA (Cu, Pb), are largely due to the natural variation in binding properties (i.e., the affinity) of FA. Predictions for metals with a lower affinity (Cd) are more prone to uncertainties in the fraction FA in DOM and the maximum site density (i.e., the capacity) of the FA. Based on these findings, suggestions are provided to reduce uncertainties in model predictions.

The global obesity pandemic: shaped by global drivers and local environments.

PubMed

Swinburn, Boyd A; Sacks, Gary; Hall, Kevin D; McPherson, Klim; Finegood, Diane T; Moodie, Marjory L; Gortmaker, Steven L

2011-08-27

The simultaneous increases in obesity in almost all countries seem to be driven mainly by changes in the global food system, which is producing more processed, affordable, and effectively marketed food than ever before. This passive overconsumption of energy leading to obesity is a predictable outcome of market economies predicated on consumption-based growth. The global food system drivers interact with local environmental factors to create a wide variation in obesity prevalence between populations. Within populations, the interactions between environmental and individual factors, including genetic makeup, explain variability in body size between individuals. However, even with this individual variation, the epidemic has predictable patterns in subpopulations. In low-income countries, obesity mostly affects middle-aged adults (especially women) from wealthy, urban environments; whereas in high-income countries it affects both sexes and all ages, but is disproportionately greater in disadvantaged groups. Unlike other major causes of preventable death and disability, such as tobacco use, injuries, and infectious diseases, there are no exemplar populations in which the obesity epidemic has been reversed by public health measures. This absence increases the urgency for evidence-creating policy action, with a priority on reduction of the supply-side drivers. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Individual variation and the resolution of conflict over parental care in penduline tits

PubMed Central

van Dijk, René E.; Székely, Tamás; Komdeur, Jan; Pogány, Ákos; Fawcett, Tim W.; Weissing, Franz J.

2012-01-01

Eurasian penduline tits (Remiz pendulinus) have an unusually diverse breeding system consisting of frequent male and female polygamy, and uniparental care by the male or the female. Intriguingly, 30 to 40 per cent of all nests are deserted by both parents. To understand the evolution of this diverse breeding system and frequent clutch desertion, we use 6 years of field data to derive fitness expectations for males and females depending on whether or not they care for their offspring. The resulting payoff matrix corresponds to an asymmetric Snowdrift Game with two alternative evolutionarily stable strategies (ESSs): female-only and male-only care. This, however, does not explain the polymorphism in care strategies and frequent biparental desertion, because theory predicts that one of the two ESSs should have spread to fixation. Using a bootstrapping approach, we demonstrate that taking account of individual variation in payoffs explains the patterns of care better than a model based on the average population payoff matrix. In particular, a model incorporating differences in male attractiveness closely predicts the observed frequencies of male and female desertion. Our work highlights the need for a new generation of individual-based evolutionary game-theoretic models. PMID:22189404

Individual variation and the resolution of conflict over parental care in penduline tits.

PubMed

van Dijk, René E; Székely, Tamás; Komdeur, Jan; Pogány, Akos; Fawcett, Tim W; Weissing, Franz J

2012-05-22

Eurasian penduline tits (Remiz pendulinus) have an unusually diverse breeding system consisting of frequent male and female polygamy, and uniparental care by the male or the female. Intriguingly, 30 to 40 per cent of all nests are deserted by both parents. To understand the evolution of this diverse breeding system and frequent clutch desertion, we use 6 years of field data to derive fitness expectations for males and females depending on whether or not they care for their offspring. The resulting payoff matrix corresponds to an asymmetric Snowdrift Game with two alternative evolutionarily stable strategies (ESSs): female-only and male-only care. This, however, does not explain the polymorphism in care strategies and frequent biparental desertion, because theory predicts that one of the two ESSs should have spread to fixation. Using a bootstrapping approach, we demonstrate that taking account of individual variation in payoffs explains the patterns of care better than a model based on the average population payoff matrix. In particular, a model incorporating differences in male attractiveness closely predicts the observed frequencies of male and female desertion. Our work highlights the need for a new generation of individual-based evolutionary game-theoretic models.

Predator personality and prey behavioural predictability jointly determine foraging performance.

PubMed

Chang, Chia-Chen; Teo, Huey Yee; Norma-Rashid, Y; Li, Daiqin

2017-01-17

Predator-prey interactions play important roles in ecological communities. Personality, consistent inter-individual differences in behaviour, of predators, prey or both are known to influence inter-specific interactions. An individual may also behave differently under the same situation and the level of such variability may differ between individuals. Such intra-individual variability (IIV) or predictability may be a trait on which selection can also act. A few studies have revealed the joint effect of personality types of both predators and prey on predator foraging performance. However, how personality type and IIV of both predators and prey jointly influence predator foraging performance remains untested empirically. Here, we addressed this using a specialized spider-eating jumping spider, Portia labiata (Salticidae), as the predator, and a jumping spider, Cosmophasis umbratica, as the prey. We examined personality types and IIVs of both P. labiata and C. umbratica and used their inter- and intra-individual behavioural variation as predictors of foraging performance (i.e., number of attempts to capture prey). Personality type and predictability had a joint effect on predator foraging performance. Aggressive predators performed better in capturing unpredictable (high IIV) prey than predictable (low IIV) prey, while docile predators demonstrated better performance when encountering predictable prey. This study highlights the importance of the joint effect of both predator and prey personality types and IIVs on predator-prey interactions.

Predator personality and prey behavioural predictability jointly determine foraging performance

PubMed Central

Chang, Chia-chen; Teo, Huey Yee; Norma-Rashid, Y.; Li, Daiqin

2017-01-01

Predator-prey interactions play important roles in ecological communities. Personality, consistent inter-individual differences in behaviour, of predators, prey or both are known to influence inter-specific interactions. An individual may also behave differently under the same situation and the level of such variability may differ between individuals. Such intra-individual variability (IIV) or predictability may be a trait on which selection can also act. A few studies have revealed the joint effect of personality types of both predators and prey on predator foraging performance. However, how personality type and IIV of both predators and prey jointly influence predator foraging performance remains untested empirically. Here, we addressed this using a specialized spider-eating jumping spider, Portia labiata (Salticidae), as the predator, and a jumping spider, Cosmophasis umbratica, as the prey. We examined personality types and IIVs of both P. labiata and C. umbratica and used their inter- and intra-individual behavioural variation as predictors of foraging performance (i.e., number of attempts to capture prey). Personality type and predictability had a joint effect on predator foraging performance. Aggressive predators performed better in capturing unpredictable (high IIV) prey than predictable (low IIV) prey, while docile predators demonstrated better performance when encountering predictable prey. This study highlights the importance of the joint effect of both predator and prey personality types and IIVs on predator-prey interactions. PMID:28094288

A Novel Framework for Characterizing Exposure-Related ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Descriptions of where and how individuals spend their time are important for characterizing exposures to chemicals in consumer products and in indoor environments. Herein we create an agent-based model (ABM) that is able to simulate longitudinal patterns in behaviors. By basing our ABM upon a needs-based artificial intelligence (AI) system, we create agents that mimic human decisions on these exposure-relevant behaviors. In a case study of adults, we use the AI to predict the inter-individual variation in the start time and duration of four behaviors: sleeping, eating, commuting, and working. The results demonstrate that the ABM can capture both inter-individual variation and how decisions on one behavior can affect subsequent behaviors. Preset NERL's research on the use of agent based modeling in exposure assessments. To obtain feed back on the approach from the leading experts in the field.

Female guppies agree to differ: phenotypic and genetic variation in mate-choice behavior and the consequences for sexual selection.

PubMed

Brooks, R; Endler, J A

2001-08-01

Variation among females in mate choice may influence evolution by sexual selection. The genetic basis of this variation is of interest because the elaboration of mating preferences requires additive genetic variation in these traits. Here we measure the repeatability and heritability of two components of female choosiness (responsiveness and discrimination) and of female preference functions for the multiple ornaments borne by male guppies (Poecilia reticulata). We show that there is significant repeatable variation in both components of choosiness and in some preference functions but not in others. There appear to be several male ornaments that females find uniformly attractive and others for which females differ in preference. One consequence is that there is no universally attractive male phenotype. Only responsiveness shows significant additive genetic variation. Variation in responsiveness appears to mask variation in discrimination and some preference functions and may be the most biologically relevant source of phenotypic and genetic variation in mate-choice behavior. To test the potential evolutionary importance of the phenotypic variation in mate choice that we report, we estimated the opportunity for and the intensity of sexual selection under models of mate choice that excluded and that incorporated individual female variation. We then compared these estimates with estimates based on measured mating success. Incorporating individual variation in mate choice generally did not predict the outcome of sexual selection any better than models that ignored such variation.

Within-person variation in security of attachment: a self-determination theory perspective on attachment, need fulfillment, and well-being.

PubMed

La Guardia, J G; Ryan, R M; Couchman, C E; Deci, E L

2000-09-01

Attachment research has traditionally focused on individual differences in global patterns of attachment to important others. The current research instead focuses primarily on within-person variability in attachments across relational partners. It was predicted that within-person variability would be substantial, even among primary attachment figures of mother, father, romantic partner, and best friend. The prediction was supported in three studies. Furthermore, in line with self-determination theory, multilevel modeling and regression analyses showed that, at the relationship level, individuals' experience of fulfillment of the basic needs for autonomy, competence, and relatedness positively predicted overall attachment security, model of self, and model of other. Relations of both attachment and need satisfaction to well-being were also explored.

Plant interactions alter the predictions of metabolic scaling theory.

PubMed

Lin, Yue; Berger, Uta; Grimm, Volker; Huth, Franka; Weiner, Jacob

2013-01-01

Metabolic scaling theory (MST) is an attempt to link physiological processes of individual organisms with macroecology. It predicts a power law relationship with an exponent of -4/3 between mean individual biomass and density during density-dependent mortality (self-thinning). Empirical tests have produced variable results, and the validity of MST is intensely debated. MST focuses on organisms' internal physiological mechanisms but we hypothesize that ecological interactions can be more important in determining plant mass-density relationships induced by density. We employ an individual-based model of plant stand development that includes three elements: a model of individual plant growth based on MST, different modes of local competition (size-symmetric vs. -asymmetric), and different resource levels. Our model is consistent with the observed variation in the slopes of self-thinning trajectories. Slopes were significantly shallower than -4/3 if competition was size-symmetric. We conclude that when the size of survivors is influenced by strong ecological interactions, these can override predictions of MST, whereas when surviving plants are less affected by interactions, individual-level metabolic processes can scale up to the population level. MST, like thermodynamics or biomechanics, sets limits within which organisms can live and function, but there may be stronger limits determined by ecological interactions. In such cases MST will not be predictive.

Human metabolic profiles are stably controlled by genetic and environmental variation

PubMed Central

Nicholson, George; Rantalainen, Mattias; Maher, Anthony D; Li, Jia V; Malmodin, Daniel; Ahmadi, Kourosh R; Faber, Johan H; Hallgrímsdóttir, Ingileif B; Barrett, Amy; Toft, Henrik; Krestyaninova, Maria; Viksna, Juris; Neogi, Sudeshna Guha; Dumas, Marc-Emmanuel; Sarkans, Ugis; The MolPAGE Consortium; Silverman, Bernard W; Donnelly, Peter; Nicholson, Jeremy K; Allen, Maxine; Zondervan, Krina T; Lindon, John C; Spector, Tim D; McCarthy, Mark I; Holmes, Elaine; Baunsgaard, Dorrit; Holmes, Chris C

2011-01-01

1H Nuclear Magnetic Resonance spectroscopy (1H NMR) is increasingly used to measure metabolite concentrations in sets of biological samples for top-down systems biology and molecular epidemiology. For such purposes, knowledge of the sources of human variation in metabolite concentrations is valuable, but currently sparse. We conducted and analysed a study to create such a resource. In our unique design, identical and non-identical twin pairs donated plasma and urine samples longitudinally. We acquired 1H NMR spectra on the samples, and statistically decomposed variation in metabolite concentration into familial (genetic and common-environmental), individual-environmental, and longitudinally unstable components. We estimate that stable variation, comprising familial and individual-environmental factors, accounts on average for 60% (plasma) and 47% (urine) of biological variation in 1H NMR-detectable metabolite concentrations. Clinically predictive metabolic variation is likely nested within this stable component, so our results have implications for the effective design of biomarker-discovery studies. We provide a power-calculation method which reveals that sample sizes of a few thousand should offer sufficient statistical precision to detect 1H NMR-based biomarkers quantifying predisposition to disease. PMID:21878913

Genetic Contributions to Continuity and Change in Attachment Security: A Prospective, Longitudinal Investigation from Infancy to Young Adulthood

PubMed Central

Raby, K. Lee; Cicchetti, Dante; Carlson, Elizabeth A.; Egeland, Byron; Collins, W. Andrew

2013-01-01

Background Longitudinal research has demonstrated that individual differences in attachment security show only modest continuity from infancy to adulthood. Recent findings based on retrospective reports suggest that individuals’ genetic variation may moderate the developmental associations between early attachment-relevant relationship experiences and adult attachment security. The purpose of this study was to use a prospective, longitudinal design to investigate genetic contributions to continuity and changes in attachment security from infancy to young adulthood in a higher risk sample. Methods Infant attachment security was assessed using the Strange Situation Procedure at 12 and 18 months. Adults’ general attachment representations were assessed using the Adult Attachment Interview at age 19 and age 26. Romantic attachment representations were assessed with the Current Relationship Interview at ages 20–21 and ages 26–28. Individuals were genotyped for variants within the oxytocin receptor (OXTR), dopamine D4 receptor (DRD4), and serotonin transporter linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR). Results The continuity of attachment security from infancy into young adulthood was consistently moderated by OXTR genetic variation. Infant attachment security predicted the security of adults’ general and romantic attachment representations only for individuals with the OXTR G/G genotype. This interaction was significant when predicting adult attachment security as measured by the Adult Attachment Interview at age 19 and 26 and the Current Relationship Interview at ages 26–28. DRD4 and 5-HTTLPR genetic variation did not consistently moderate the longitudinal associations between attachment security during infancy and adulthood. Conclusions This study provides initial longitudinal evidence for genetic contributions to continuity and change in attachment security from infancy to young adulthood. Genetic variation related to the oxytocin system may moderate the stability of attachment security across development. PMID:23731038

Estimating Time-Varying PCB Exposures Using Person-Specific Predictions to Supplement Measured Values: A Comparison of Observed and Predicted Values in Two Cohorts of Norwegian Women.

PubMed

Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Breivik, Knut; Wania, Frank; Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

2016-03-01

Studies on the health effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) call for an understanding of past and present human exposure. Time-resolved mechanistic models may supplement information on concentrations in individuals obtained from measurements and/or statistical approaches if they can be shown to reproduce empirical data. Here, we evaluated the capability of one such mechanistic model to reproduce measured PCB concentrations in individual Norwegian women. We also assessed individual life-course concentrations. Concentrations of four PCB congeners in pregnant (n = 310, sampled in 2007-2009) and postmenopausal (n = 244, 2005) women were compared with person-specific predictions obtained using CoZMoMAN, an emission-based environmental fate and human food-chain bioaccumulation model. Person-specific predictions were also made using statistical regression models including dietary and lifestyle variables and concentrations. CoZMoMAN accurately reproduced medians and ranges of measured concentrations in the two study groups. Furthermore, rank correlations between measurements and predictions from both CoZMoMAN and regression analyses were strong (Spearman's r > 0.67). Precision in quartile assignments from predictions was strong overall as evaluated by weighted Cohen's kappa (> 0.6). Simulations indicated large inter-individual differences in concentrations experienced in the past. The mechanistic model reproduced all measurements of PCB concentrations within a factor of 10, and subject ranking and quartile assignments were overall largely consistent, although they were weak within each study group. Contamination histories for individuals predicted by CoZMoMAN revealed variation between study subjects, particularly in the timing of peak concentrations. Mechanistic models can provide individual PCB exposure metrics that could serve as valuable supplements to measurements.

Variation in founder groups promotes establishment success in the wild

PubMed Central

Forsman, Anders; Wennersten, Lena; Karlsson, Magnus; Caesar, Sofia

2012-01-01

Environmental changes currently pose severe threats to biodiversity, and reintroductions and translocations are increasingly used to protect declining populations and species from extinction. Theory predicts that establishment success should be higher for more variable groups of dissimilar individuals. To test this ‘diversity promotes establishment’ hypothesis, we introduced colour polymorphic pygmy grasshoppers (Tetrix subulata) to different sites in the wild. The number of descendants found at the release sites the subsequent year increased with increasing number of colour morphs in the founder group, and variation in founder groups also positively affected colour morph diversity in the established populations. Since colour morphs differ in morphology, physiology, behaviour, reproductive life history and types of niche used, these findings demonstrate that variation among individuals in functionally important traits promotes establishment success under natural conditions, and further indicate that founder diversity may contribute to evolutionary rescue and increased population persistence. PMID:22456885

The God Allusion : Individual Variation in Agency Detection, Mentalizing and Schizotypy and Their Association with Religious Beliefs and Behaviors.

PubMed

Wlodarski, Rafael; Pearce, Eiluned

2016-06-01

It has previously been suggested that the historically and geographically widespread persistence of religious beliefs occurs because it is a by-product of normal cognitive processes, ones which first evolved to confer survival advantages in the social domain. If this theory holds, then it is likely that inter-individual variation in the same biases may predict corresponding variation in religious thoughts and behaviors. Using an online questionnaire, 298 participants answered questions regarding their tendency to detect agency, the degree to which they displayed schizotypal traits, their ability to understand the emotions and motivations of others ("mentalizing"), and their religious beliefs and behaviors. Path analysis suggests that mentalizing, agency detection, and schizotypal thinking were each independently related to religiosity. Furthermore, schizotypal thinking and agency detection were highly interrelated with one another, whereas mentalizing was not. Although the degree to which an individual engages with religious or spiritual beliefs will be influenced by their cultural and historical context, this paper helps to elucidate the interplay between various cognitive processes that might predispose some individuals but not others toward holding such beliefs in the first place.

Population health needs as predictors of variations in NHS practice payments: a cross-sectional study of English general practices in 2013–2014 and 2014–2015

PubMed Central

Levene, Louis S; Baker, Richard; Wilson, Andrew; Walker, Nicola; Boomla, Kambiz; Bankart, M John G

2017-01-01

Background NHS general practice payments in England include pay for performance elements and a weighted component designed to compensate for workload, but without measures of specific deprivation or ethnic groups. Aim To determine whether population factors related to health needs predicted variations in NHS payments to individual general practices in England. Design and setting Cross-sectional study of all practices in England, in financial years 2013–2014 and 2014–2015. Method Descriptive statistics, univariable analyses (examining correlations between payment and predictors), and multivariable analyses (undertaking multivariable linear regressions for each year, with logarithms of payments as the dependent variables, and with population, practice, and performance factors as independent variables) were undertaken. Results Several population variables predicted variations in adjusted total payments, but inconsistently. Higher payments were associated with increases in deprivation, patients of older age, African Caribbean ethnic group, and asthma prevalence. Lower payments were associated with an increase in smoking prevalence. Long-term health conditions, South Asian ethnic group, and diabetes prevalence were not predictive. The adjusted R2 values were 0.359 (2013–2014) and 0.374 (2014–2015). A slightly different set of variables predicted variations in the payment component designed to compensate for workload. Lower payments were associated with increases in deprivation, patients of older age, and diabetes prevalence. Smoking prevalence was not predictive. There was a geographical differential. Conclusion Population factors related to health needs were, overall, poor predictors of variations in adjusted total practice payments and in the payment component designed to compensate for workload. Revising the weighting formula and extending weighting to other payment components might better support practices to address these needs. PMID:27872085

Population health needs as predictors of variations in NHS practice payments: a cross-sectional study of English general practices in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

PubMed

Levene, Louis S; Baker, Richard; Wilson, Andrew; Walker, Nicola; Boomla, Kambiz; Bankart, M John G

2017-01-01

NHS general practice payments in England include pay for performance elements and a weighted component designed to compensate for workload, but without measures of specific deprivation or ethnic groups. To determine whether population factors related to health needs predicted variations in NHS payments to individual general practices in England. Cross-sectional study of all practices in England, in financial years 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. Descriptive statistics, univariable analyses (examining correlations between payment and predictors), and multivariable analyses (undertaking multivariable linear regressions for each year, with logarithms of payments as the dependent variables, and with population, practice, and performance factors as independent variables) were undertaken. Several population variables predicted variations in adjusted total payments, but inconsistently. Higher payments were associated with increases in deprivation, patients of older age, African Caribbean ethnic group, and asthma prevalence. Lower payments were associated with an increase in smoking prevalence. Long-term health conditions, South Asian ethnic group, and diabetes prevalence were not predictive. The adjusted R 2 values were 0.359 (2013-2014) and 0.374 (2014-2015). A slightly different set of variables predicted variations in the payment component designed to compensate for workload. Lower payments were associated with increases in deprivation, patients of older age, and diabetes prevalence. Smoking prevalence was not predictive. There was a geographical differential. Population factors related to health needs were, overall, poor predictors of variations in adjusted total practice payments and in the payment component designed to compensate for workload. Revising the weighting formula and extending weighting to other payment components might better support practices to address these needs. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

Robustness of near-infrared calibration models for the prediction of milk constituents during the milking process.

PubMed

Melfsen, Andreas; Hartung, Eberhard; Haeussermann, Angelika

2013-02-01

The robustness of in-line raw milk analysis with near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was tested with respect to the prediction of the raw milk contents fat, protein and lactose. Near-infrared (NIR) spectra of raw milk (n = 3119) were acquired on three different farms during the milking process of 354 milkings over a period of six months. Calibration models were calculated for: a random data set of each farm (fully random internal calibration); first two thirds of the visits per farm (internal calibration); whole datasets of two of the three farms (external calibration), and combinations of external and internal datasets. Validation was done either on the remaining data set per farm (internal validation) or on data of the remaining farms (external validation). Excellent calibration results were obtained when fully randomised internal calibration sets were used for milk analysis. In this case, RPD values of around ten, five and three for the prediction of fat, protein and lactose content, respectively, were achieved. Farm internal calibrations achieved much poorer prediction results especially for the prediction of protein and lactose with RPD values of around two and one respectively. The prediction accuracy improved when validation was done on spectra of an external farm, mainly due to the higher sample variation in external calibration sets in terms of feeding diets and individual cow effects. The results showed that further improvements were achieved when additional farm information was added to the calibration set. One of the main requirements towards a robust calibration model is the ability to predict milk constituents in unknown future milk samples. The robustness and quality of prediction increases with increasing variation of, e.g., feeding and cow individual milk composition in the calibration model.

Genes, psychological traits and civic engagement

PubMed Central

Dawes, Christopher T.; Settle, Jaime E.; Loewen, Peter John; McGue, Matt; Iacono, William G.

2015-01-01

Civic engagement is a classic example of a collective action problem: while civic participation improves life in the community as a whole, it is individually costly and thus there is an incentive to free ride on the actions of others. Yet, we observe significant inter-individual variation in the degree to which people are in fact civically engaged. Early accounts reconciling the theoretical prediction with empirical reality focused either on variation in individuals’ material resources or their attitudes, but recent work has turned to genetic differences between individuals. We show an underlying genetic contribution to an index of civic engagement (0.41), as well as for the individual acts of engagement of volunteering for community or public service activities (0.33), regularly contributing to charitable causes (0.28) and voting in elections (0.27). There are closer genetic relationships between donating and the other two activities; volunteering and voting are not genetically correlated. Further, we show that most of the correlation between civic engagement and both positive emotionality and verbal IQ can be attributed to genes that affect both traits. These results enrich our understanding of the way in which genetic variation may influence the wide range of collective action problems that individuals face in modern community life. PMID:26503688

Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Adaptation Using Environmentally Predicted Traits

PubMed Central

van Zanten, Martijn

2015-01-01

Current methods for studying the genetic basis of adaptation evaluate genetic associations with ecologically relevant traits or single environmental variables, under the implicit assumption that natural selection imposes correlations between phenotypes, environments and genotypes. In practice, observed trait and environmental data are manifestations of unknown selective forces and are only indirectly associated with adaptive genetic variation. In theory, improved estimation of these forces could enable more powerful detection of loci under selection. Here we present an approach in which we approximate adaptive variation by modeling phenotypes as a function of the environment and using the predicted trait in multivariate and univariate genome-wide association analysis (GWAS). Based on computer simulations and published flowering time data from the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana, we find that environmentally predicted traits lead to higher recovery of functional loci in multivariate GWAS and are more strongly correlated to allele frequencies at adaptive loci than individual environmental variables. Our results provide an example of the use of environmental data to obtain independent and meaningful information on adaptive genetic variation. PMID:26496492

Modeling spatial and temporal variability of residential air exchange rates for the Near-Road Exposures and Effects of Urban Air Pollutants Study (NEXUS).

PubMed

Breen, Michael S; Burke, Janet M; Batterman, Stuart A; Vette, Alan F; Godwin, Christopher; Croghan, Carry W; Schultz, Bradley D; Long, Thomas C

2014-11-07

Air pollution health studies often use outdoor concentrations as exposure surrogates. Failure to account for variability of residential infiltration of outdoor pollutants can induce exposure errors and lead to bias and incorrect confidence intervals in health effect estimates. The residential air exchange rate (AER), which is the rate of exchange of indoor air with outdoor air, is an important determinant for house-to-house (spatial) and temporal variations of air pollution infiltration. Our goal was to evaluate and apply mechanistic models to predict AERs for 213 homes in the Near-Road Exposures and Effects of Urban Air Pollutants Study (NEXUS), a cohort study of traffic-related air pollution exposures and respiratory effects in asthmatic children living near major roads in Detroit, Michigan. We used a previously developed model (LBL), which predicts AER from meteorology and questionnaire data on building characteristics related to air leakage, and an extended version of this model (LBLX) that includes natural ventilation from open windows. As a critical and novel aspect of our AER modeling approach, we performed a cross validation, which included both parameter estimation (i.e., model calibration) and model evaluation, based on daily AER measurements from a subset of 24 study homes on five consecutive days during two seasons. The measured AER varied between 0.09 and 3.48 h(-1) with a median of 0.64 h(-1). For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 29% (0.19 h‑1) for both the LBL and LBLX models. The LBL and LBLX models predicted 59% and 61% of the variance in the AER, respectively. Daily AER predictions for all 213 homes during the three year study (2010-2012) showed considerable house-to-house variations from building leakage differences, and temporal variations from outdoor temperature and wind speed fluctuations. Using this novel approach, NEXUS will be one of the first epidemiology studies to apply calibrated and home-specific AER models, and to include the spatial and temporal variations of AER for over 200 individual homes across multiple years into an exposure assessment in support of improving risk estimates.

Higher cortisol levels at diurnal trough predict greater attentional bias towards threat in healthy young adults.

PubMed

Hakamata, Yuko; Izawa, Shuhei; Sato, Eisuke; Komi, Shotaro; Murayama, Norio; Moriguchi, Yoshiya; Hanakawa, Takashi; Inoue, Yusuke; Tagaya, Hirokuni

2013-11-01

Attentional bias (AB), selective information processing towards threat, can exacerbate anxiety and depression. Despite growing interest, physiological determinants of AB are yet to be understood. We examined whether stress hormone cortisol and its diurnal variation pattern contribute to AB. Eighty-seven healthy young adults underwent assessments for AB, anxious personality traits, depressive symptoms, and attentional function. Salivary cortisol was collected at three time points daily (at awakening, 30 min after awakening, and bedtime) for 2 consecutive days. We performed: (1) multiple regression analysis to examine the relationships between AB and the other measures and (2) analysis of variance (ANOVA) between groups with different cortisol variation patterns for the other measures. Multiple regression analysis revealed that higher cortisol levels at bedtime (p<0.001), an anxious personality trait (p=0.011), and years of education (p=0.036) were included in the optimal model to predict AB (adjusted R(2)=0.234, p<0.001). ANOVA further demonstrated significant mean differences in AB and depressive symptoms; individuals with blunted cortisol variation exhibited significantly greater AB and depression than those with moderate variation (p=0.037 and p=0.009, respectively). Neuropsychological assessment focused on attention and cortisol measurement at three time points daily. We showed that higher cortisol levels at bedtime and blunted cortisol variation are associated with greater AB. Individuals who have higher cortisol levels at diurnal trough might be at risk of clinical anxiety or depression but could also derive more benefits from the attentional-bias-modification program. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Individual heterogeneity in reproductive rates and cost of reproduction in a long-lived vertebrate

PubMed Central

Chambert, Thierry; Rotella, Jay J; Higgs, Megan D; Garrott, Robert A

2013-01-01

Individual variation in reproductive success is a key feature of evolution, but also has important implications for predicting population responses to variable environments. Although such individual variation in reproductive outcomes has been reported in numerous studies, most analyses to date have not considered whether these realized differences were due to latent individual heterogeneity in reproduction or merely random chance causing different outcomes among like individuals. Furthermore, latent heterogeneity in fitness components might be expressed differently in contrasted environmental conditions, an issue that has only rarely been investigated. Here, we assessed (i) the potential existence of latent individual heterogeneity and (ii) the nature of its expression (fixed vs. variable) in a population of female Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii), using a hierarchical modeling approach on a 30-year mark–recapture data set consisting of 954 individual encounter histories. We found strong support for the existence of latent individual heterogeneity in the population, with “robust” individuals expected to produce twice as many pups as “frail” individuals. Moreover, the expression of individual heterogeneity appeared consistent, with only mild evidence that it might be amplified when environmental conditions are severe. Finally, the explicit modeling of individual heterogeneity allowed us to detect a substantial cost of reproduction that was not evidenced when the heterogeneity was ignored. PMID:23919151

Dopamine Receptor D4 Gene Variation Predicts Preschoolers' Developing Theory of Mind

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lackner, Christine; Sabbagh, Mark A.; Hallinan, Elizabeth; Liu, Xudong; Holden, Jeanette J. A.

2012-01-01

Individual differences in preschoolers' understanding that human action is caused by internal mental states, or representational theory of mind (RTM), are heritable, as are developmental disorders such as autism in which RTM is particularly impaired. We investigated whether polymorphisms of genes affecting dopamine (DA) utilization and metabolism…

Environmental Variation and Cohort Effects in an Antarctic Predator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garrott, Robert A.; Rotella, Jay J.; Siniff, Donald B.; Parkinson, Claire L.; Stauffer, Glenn E.

2011-01-01

Understanding the potential influence of environmental variation experienced by animals during early stages of development on their subsequent demographic performance can contribute to our understanding of population processes and aid in predicting impacts of global climate change on ecosystem functioning. Using data from 4,178 tagged female Weddell seal pups born into 20 different cohorts, and 30 years of observations of the tagged seals, we evaluated the hypothesis that environmental conditions experienced by young seals, either indirectly through maternal effects and/or directly during the initial period of juvenile nutritional independence, have long-term effects on individual demographic performance. We documented an approximately 3-fold difference in the proportion of each cohort that returned to the pupping colonies and produced a pup within the first 10 years after birth. We found only weak evidence for a correlation between annual environmental conditions during the juvenile-independence period and cohort recruitment probability. Instead, the data strongly supported an association between cohort recruitment probability and the regional extent of sea ice experienced by the mother during the winter the pup was in utero. We suggest that inter-annual variation in winter sea-ice extent influences the foraging success of pregnant seals by moderating the regional abundance of competing predators that cannot occupy areas of consolidated sea ice, and by directly influencing the abundance of mid-trophic prey species that are sea-ice obligates. We hypothesize that this environmentally-induced variation in maternal nutrition dictates the extent of maternal energetic investment in offspring, resulting in cohort variation in mean size of pups at weaning which, in turn, contributes to an individual?s phenotype and its ultimate fitness. These linkages between sea ice and trophic dynamics, combined with demonstrated and predicted changes in the duration and extent of sea ice associated with climate change, suggest significant alterations in Antarctic marine ecosystems in the future.

Predicting individualized clinical measures by a generalized prediction framework and multimodal fusion of MRI data

PubMed Central

Meng, Xing; Jiang, Rongtao; Lin, Dongdong; Bustillo, Juan; Jones, Thomas; Chen, Jiayu; Yu, Qingbao; Du, Yuhui; Zhang, Yu; Jiang, Tianzi; Sui, Jing; Calhoun, Vince D.

2016-01-01

Neuroimaging techniques have greatly enhanced the understanding of neurodiversity (human brain variation across individuals) in both health and disease. The ultimate goal of using brain imaging biomarkers is to perform individualized predictions. Here we proposed a generalized framework that can predict explicit values of the targeted measures by taking advantage of joint information from multiple modalities. This framework also enables whole brain voxel-wise searching by combining multivariate techniques such as ReliefF, clustering, correlation-based feature selection and multiple regression models, which is more flexible and can achieve better prediction performance than alternative atlas-based methods. For 50 healthy controls and 47 schizophrenia patients, three kinds of features derived from resting-state fMRI (fALFF), sMRI (gray matter) and DTI (fractional anisotropy) were extracted and fed into a regression model, achieving high prediction for both cognitive scores (MCCB composite r = 0.7033, MCCB social cognition r = 0.7084) and symptomatic scores (positive and negative syndrome scale [PANSS] positive r = 0.7785, PANSS negative r = 0.7804). Moreover, the brain areas likely responsible for cognitive deficits of schizophrenia, including middle temporal gyrus, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, striatum, cuneus and cerebellum, were located with different weights, as well as regions predicting PANSS symptoms, including thalamus, striatum and inferior parietal lobule, pinpointing the potential neuromarkers. Finally, compared to a single modality, multimodal combination achieves higher prediction accuracy and enables individualized prediction on multiple clinical measures. There is more work to be done, but the current results highlight the potential utility of multimodal brain imaging biomarkers to eventually inform clinical decision-making. PMID:27177764

Cull sow knife-separable lean content evaluation at harvest and lean mass content prediction equation development.

PubMed

Abell, Caitlyn E; Stalder, Kenneth J; Hendricks, Haven B; Fitzgerald, Robert F

2012-07-01

The objectives of this study were to develop a prediction equation for carcass knife-separable lean within and across USDA cull sow market weight classes (MWC) and to determine carcass and individual primal cut knife separable lean content from cull sows. There were significant percent lean and fat differences in the primal cuts across USDA MWC. The two lighter USDA MWC had a greater percent carcass lean and lower percent fat compared to the two heavier MWC. In general, hot carcass weight explained the majority of carcass lean variation. Additionally, backfat was a significant variation source when predicting cull sow carcass lean. The findings support using a single lean prediction equation across MWC to assist processors when making cull sow purchasing decisions and determine the mix of animals from various USDA MWC that will meet their needs when making pork products with defined lean:fat content. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The psychology of meta-ethics: exploring objectivism.

PubMed

Goodwin, Geoffrey P; Darley, John M

2008-03-01

How do lay individuals think about the objectivity of their ethical beliefs? Do they regard them as factual and objective, or as more subjective and opinion-based, and what might predict such differences? In three experiments, we set out a methodology for assessing the perceived objectivity of ethical beliefs, and use it to document several novel findings. Experiment 1 showed that individuals tend to regard ethical statements as clearly more objective than social conventions and tastes, and almost as objective as scientific facts. Yet, there was considerable variation in objectivism, both across different ethical statements, and across individuals. The extent to which individuals treat ethical beliefs as objective was predicted by the way they grounded their ethical systems. Groundings which emphasize the religious, pragmatic, and self-identity underpinnings of ethical belief each independently predicted greater ethical objectivity. Experiment 2 replicated and extended these findings with a refined measure of ethical objectivism. Experiment 3 demonstrated the robustness of the religious grounding of ethics, and differentiates it from mere religious belief and from political orientation. The results shed light on the nature of ethical belief, and have implications for the resolution of ethical disputes.

Social learning and evolution: the cultural intelligence hypothesis

PubMed Central

van Schaik, Carel P.; Burkart, Judith M.

2011-01-01

If social learning is more efficient than independent individual exploration, animals should learn vital cultural skills exclusively, and routine skills faster, through social learning, provided they actually use social learning preferentially. Animals with opportunities for social learning indeed do so. Moreover, more frequent opportunities for social learning should boost an individual's repertoire of learned skills. This prediction is confirmed by comparisons among wild great ape populations and by social deprivation and enculturation experiments. These findings shaped the cultural intelligence hypothesis, which complements the traditional benefit hypotheses for the evolution of intelligence by specifying the conditions in which these benefits can be reaped. The evolutionary version of the hypothesis argues that species with frequent opportunities for social learning should more readily respond to selection for a greater number of learned skills. Because improved social learning also improves asocial learning, the hypothesis predicts a positive interspecific correlation between social-learning performance and individual learning ability. Variation among primates supports this prediction. The hypothesis also predicts that more heavily cultural species should be more intelligent. Preliminary tests involving birds and mammals support this prediction too. The cultural intelligence hypothesis can also account for the unusual cognitive abilities of humans, as well as our unique mechanisms of skill transfer. PMID:21357223

Social learning and evolution: the cultural intelligence hypothesis.

PubMed

van Schaik, Carel P; Burkart, Judith M

2011-04-12

If social learning is more efficient than independent individual exploration, animals should learn vital cultural skills exclusively, and routine skills faster, through social learning, provided they actually use social learning preferentially. Animals with opportunities for social learning indeed do so. Moreover, more frequent opportunities for social learning should boost an individual's repertoire of learned skills. This prediction is confirmed by comparisons among wild great ape populations and by social deprivation and enculturation experiments. These findings shaped the cultural intelligence hypothesis, which complements the traditional benefit hypotheses for the evolution of intelligence by specifying the conditions in which these benefits can be reaped. The evolutionary version of the hypothesis argues that species with frequent opportunities for social learning should more readily respond to selection for a greater number of learned skills. Because improved social learning also improves asocial learning, the hypothesis predicts a positive interspecific correlation between social-learning performance and individual learning ability. Variation among primates supports this prediction. The hypothesis also predicts that more heavily cultural species should be more intelligent. Preliminary tests involving birds and mammals support this prediction too. The cultural intelligence hypothesis can also account for the unusual cognitive abilities of humans, as well as our unique mechanisms of skill transfer.

Selection on female behaviour fluctuates with offspring environment.

PubMed

Taylor, R W; Boutin, S; Humphries, M M; McAdam, A G

2014-11-01

Temporal variation in selection has long been proposed as a mechanism by which genetic variation could be maintained despite short-term strong directional selection and has been invoked to explain the maintenance of consistent individual differences in behaviour. We tested the hypothesis that ecological changes through time lead to fluctuating selection, which could promote the maintenance of variation in female behavioural traits in a wild population of North American red squirrels. As predicted, linear selection gradients on female aggression and activity significantly fluctuated across years depending on the level of competition among juveniles for vacant territories. This selection acted primarily through juvenile overwinter survival rather than maternal fecundity. Incorporating uncertainty in individual measures of behaviour reduced the magnitude of annual selection gradients and increased uncertainty in these estimates, but did not affect the overall pattern of temporal fluctuations in natural selection that coincided with the intensity of competition for vacant territories. These temporal fluctuations in selection might, therefore, promote the maintenance of heritable individual differences in behaviour in this wild red squirrel population. © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

In situ adaptive response to climate and habitat quality variation: spatial and temporal variation in European badger (Meles meles) body weight.

PubMed

Byrne, Andrew W; Fogarty, Ursula; O'Keeffe, James; Newman, Chris

2015-09-01

Variation in climatic and habitat conditions can affect populations through a variety of mechanisms, and these relationships can act at different temporal and spatial scales. Using post-mortem badger body weight records from 15 878 individuals captured across the Republic of Ireland (7224 setts across ca. 15 000 km(2) ; 2009-2012), we employed a hierarchical multilevel mixed model to evaluate the effects of climate (rainfall and temperature) and habitat quality (landscape suitability), while controlling for local abundance (unique badgers caught/sett/year). Body weight was affected strongly by temperature across a number of temporal scales (preceding month or season), with badgers being heavier if preceding temperatures (particularly during winter/spring) were warmer than the long-term seasonal mean. There was less support for rainfall across different temporal scales, although badgers did exhibit heavier weights when greater rainfall occurred one or 2 months prior to capture. Badgers were also heavier in areas with higher landscape habitat quality, modulated by the number of individuals captured per sett, consistent with density-dependent effects reducing weights. Overall, the mean badger body weight of culled individuals rose during the study period (2009-2012), more so for males than for females. With predicted increases in temperature, and rainfall, augmented by ongoing agricultural land conversion in this region, we project heavier individual badger body weights in the future. Increased body weight has been associated with higher fecundity, recruitment and survival rates in badgers, due to improved food availability and energetic budgets. We thus predict that climate change could increase the badger population across the Republic of Ireland. Nevertheless, we emphasize that, locally, populations could still be vulnerable to extreme weather variability coupled with detrimental agricultural practice, including population management. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Generation of standard gas mixtures of halogenated, aliphatic, and aromatic compounds and prediction of the individual output rates based on molecular formula and boiling point.

PubMed

Thorenz, Ute R; Kundel, Michael; Müller, Lars; Hoffmann, Thorsten

2012-11-01

In this work, we describe a simple diffusion capillary device for the generation of various organic test gases. Using a set of basic equations the output rate of the test gas devices can easily be predicted only based on the molecular formula and the boiling point of the compounds of interest. Since these parameters are easily accessible for a large number of potential analytes, even for those compounds which are typically not listed in physico-chemical handbooks or internet databases, the adjustment of the test gas source to the concentration range required for the individual analytical application is straightforward. The agreement of the predicted and measured values is shown to be valid for different groups of chemicals, such as halocarbons, alkanes, alkenes, and aromatic compounds and for different dimensions of the diffusion capillaries. The limits of the predictability of the output rates are explored and observed to result in an underprediction of the output rates when very thin capillaries are used. It is demonstrated that pressure variations are responsible for the observed deviation of the output rates. To overcome the influence of pressure variations and at the same time to establish a suitable test gas source for highly volatile compounds, also the usability of permeation sources is explored, for example for the generation of molecular bromine test gases.

Natural selection on immune defense: A field experiment.

PubMed

Langeloh, Laura; Behrmann-Godel, Jasminca; Seppälä, Otto

2017-02-01

Predicting the evolution of phenotypic traits requires an understanding of natural selection on them. Despite its indispensability in the fight against parasites, selection on host immune defense has remained understudied. Theory predicts immune traits to be under stabilizing selection due to associated trade-offs with other fitness-related traits. Empirical studies, however, report mainly positive directional selection. This discrepancy could be caused by low phenotypic variation in the examined individuals and/or variation in host resource level that confounds trade-offs in empirical studies. In a field experiment where we maintained Lymnaea stagnalis snails individually in cages in a lake, we investigated phenotypic selection on two immune defense traits, phenoloxidase (PO)-like activity and antibacterial activity, in hemolymph. We used a diverse laboratory population and manipulated snail resource level by limiting their food supply. For six weeks, we followed immune activity, growth, and two fitness components, survival and fecundity of snails. We found that PO-like activity and growth were under stabilizing selection, while antibacterial activity was under positive directional selection. Selection on immune traits was mainly driven by variation in survival. The form of selection on immune defense apparently depends on the particular trait, possibly due to its importance for countering the present parasite community. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Automatic estimation of aquifer parameters using long-term water supply pumping and injection records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Ning; Illman, Walter A.

2016-09-01

Analyses are presented of long-term hydrographs perturbed by variable pumping/injection events in a confined aquifer at a municipal water-supply well field in the Region of Waterloo, Ontario (Canada). Such records are typically not considered for aquifer test analysis. Here, the water-level variations are fingerprinted to pumping/injection rate changes using the Theis model implemented in the WELLS code coupled with PEST. Analyses of these records yield a set of transmissivity ( T) and storativity ( S) estimates between each monitoring and production borehole. These individual estimates are found to poorly predict water-level variations at nearby monitoring boreholes not used in the calibration effort. On the other hand, the geometric means of the individual T and S estimates are similar to those obtained from previous pumping tests conducted at the same site and adequately predict water-level variations in other boreholes. The analyses reveal that long-term municipal water-level records are amenable to analyses using a simple analytical solution to estimate aquifer parameters. However, uniform parameters estimated with analytical solutions should be considered as first rough estimates. More accurate hydraulic parameters should be obtained by calibrating a three-dimensional numerical model that rigorously captures the complexities of the site with these data.

Estimation of genomic prediction accuracy from reference populations with varying degrees of relationship.

PubMed

Lee, S Hong; Clark, Sam; van der Werf, Julius H J

2017-01-01

Genomic prediction is emerging in a wide range of fields including animal and plant breeding, risk prediction in human precision medicine and forensic. It is desirable to establish a theoretical framework for genomic prediction accuracy when the reference data consists of information sources with varying degrees of relationship to the target individuals. A reference set can contain both close and distant relatives as well as 'unrelated' individuals from the wider population in the genomic prediction. The various sources of information were modeled as different populations with different effective population sizes (Ne). Both the effective number of chromosome segments (Me) and Ne are considered to be a function of the data used for prediction. We validate our theory with analyses of simulated as well as real data, and illustrate that the variation in genomic relationships with the target is a predictor of the information content of the reference set. With a similar amount of data available for each source, we show that close relatives can have a substantially larger effect on genomic prediction accuracy than lesser related individuals. We also illustrate that when prediction relies on closer relatives, there is less improvement in prediction accuracy with an increase in training data or marker panel density. We release software that can estimate the expected prediction accuracy and power when combining different reference sources with various degrees of relationship to the target, which is useful when planning genomic prediction (before or after collecting data) in animal, plant and human genetics.

Feeder use predicts both acquisition and transmission of a contagious pathogen in a North American songbird.

PubMed

Adelman, James S; Moyers, Sahnzi C; Farine, Damien R; Hawley, Dana M

2015-09-22

Individual heterogeneity can influence the dynamics of infectious diseases in wildlife and humans alike. Thus, recent work has sought to identify behavioural characteristics that contribute disproportionately to individual variation in pathogen acquisition (super-receiving) or transmission (super-spreading). However, it remains unknown whether the same behaviours enhance both acquisition and transmission, a scenario likely to result in explosive epidemics. Here, we examined this possibility in an ecologically relevant host-pathogen system: house finches and their bacterial pathogen, Mycoplasma gallisepticum, which causes severe conjunctivitis. We examined behaviours likely to influence disease acquisition (feeder use, aggression, social network affiliations) in an observational field study, finding that the time an individual spends on bird feeders best predicted the risk of conjunctivitis. To test whether this behaviour also influences the likelihood of transmitting M. gallisepticum, we experimentally inoculated individuals based on feeding behaviour and tracked epidemics within captive flocks. As predicted, transmission was fastest when birds that spent the most time on feeders initiated the epidemic. Our results suggest that the same behaviour underlies both pathogen acquisition and transmission in this system and potentially others. Identifying individuals that exhibit such behaviours is critical for disease management. © 2015 The Author(s).

Linking behavioural syndromes and cognition: a behavioural ecology perspective.

PubMed

Sih, Andrew; Del Giudice, Marco

2012-10-05

With the exception of a few model species, individual differences in cognition remain relatively unstudied in non-human animals. One intriguing possibility is that variation in cognition is functionally related to variation in personality. Here, we review some examples and present hypotheses on relationships between personality (or behavioural syndromes) and individual differences in cognitive style. Our hypotheses are based largely on a connection between fast-slow behavioural types (BTs; e.g. boldness, aggressiveness, exploration tendency) and cognitive speed-accuracy trade-offs. We also discuss connections between BTs, cognition and ecologically important aspects of decision-making, including sampling, impulsivity, risk sensitivity and choosiness. Finally, we introduce the notion of cognition syndromes, and apply ideas from theories on adaptive behavioural syndromes to generate predictions on cognition syndromes.

Realistic Affective Forecasting: The Role of Personality

PubMed Central

Hoerger, Michael; Chapman, Ben; Duberstein, Paul

2016-01-01

Affective forecasting often drives decision making. Although affective forecasting research has often focused on identifying sources of error at the event level, the present investigation draws upon the ‘realistic paradigm’ in seeking to identify factors that similarly influence predicted and actual emotions, explaining their concordance across individuals. We hypothesized that the personality traits neuroticism and extraversion would account for variation in both predicted and actual emotional reactions to a wide array of stimuli and events (football games, an election, Valentine’s Day, birthdays, happy/sad film clips, and an intrusive interview). As hypothesized, individuals who were more introverted and neurotic anticipated, correctly, that they would experience relatively more unpleasant emotional reactions, and those who were more extraverted and less neurotic anticipated, correctly, that they would experience relatively more pleasant emotional reactions. Personality explained 30% of the concordance between predicted and actual emotional reactions. Findings suggest three purported personality processes implicated in affective forecasting, highlight the importance of individual-differences research in this domain, and call for more research on realistic affective forecasts. PMID:26212463

Realistic affective forecasting: The role of personality.

PubMed

Hoerger, Michael; Chapman, Ben; Duberstein, Paul

2016-11-01

Affective forecasting often drives decision-making. Although affective forecasting research has often focused on identifying sources of error at the event level, the present investigation draws upon the "realistic paradigm" in seeking to identify factors that similarly influence predicted and actual emotions, explaining their concordance across individuals. We hypothesised that the personality traits neuroticism and extraversion would account for variation in both predicted and actual emotional reactions to a wide array of stimuli and events (football games, an election, Valentine's Day, birthdays, happy/sad film clips, and an intrusive interview). As hypothesised, individuals who were more introverted and neurotic anticipated, correctly, that they would experience relatively more unpleasant emotional reactions, and those who were more extraverted and less neurotic anticipated, correctly, that they would experience relatively more pleasant emotional reactions. Personality explained 30% of the concordance between predicted and actual emotional reactions. Findings suggest three purported personality processes implicated in affective forecasting, highlight the importance of individual-differences research in this domain, and call for more research on realistic affective forecasts.

Sleep and organizational citizenship behavior: the mediating role of job satisfaction.

PubMed

Barnes, Christopher M; Ghumman, Sonia; Scott, Brent A

2013-01-01

We examine sleep as an important factor beyond the work domain that is relevant to organizational citizenship behavior. In a field study of 87 employees from a variety of organizations, an objective measure of sleep quantity predicted organizational citizenship behavior directed toward organizations but not organizational citizenship behavior directed toward individuals. Additionally, job satisfaction mediated this relationship. In a second field study of 85 working college students, we found that natural variation in daily sleep over the course of a work week predicted daily variance in organizational citizenship behavior directed toward both individuals and organizations, and that job satisfaction mediated these relationships. Based on these findings, we discuss theoretical and practical implications of sleep-deprived employees.

Dynamic Variation in Sexual Contact Rates in a Cohort of HIV-Negative Gay Men.

PubMed

Romero-Severson, E O; Volz, E; Koopman, J S; Leitner, T; Ionides, E L

2015-08-01

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission models that include variability in sexual behavior over time have shown increased incidence, prevalence, and acute-state transmission rates for a given population risk profile. This raises the question of whether dynamic variation in individual sexual behavior is a real phenomenon that can be observed and measured. To study this dynamic variation, we developed a model incorporating heterogeneity in both between-person and within-person sexual contact patterns. Using novel methodology that we call iterated filtering for longitudinal data, we fitted this model by maximum likelihood to longitudinal survey data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Collaborative HIV Seroincidence Study (1992-1995). We found evidence for individual heterogeneity in sexual behavior over time. We simulated an epidemic process and found that inclusion of empirically measured levels of dynamic variation in individual-level sexual behavior brought the theoretical predictions of HIV incidence into closer alignment with reality given the measured per-act probabilities of transmission. The methods developed here provide a framework for quantifying variation in sexual behaviors that helps in understanding the HIV epidemic among gay men. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Conserved Genetic Architecture Underlying Individual Recombination Rate Variation in a Wild Population of Soay Sheep (Ovis aries)

PubMed Central

Johnston, Susan E.; Bérénos, Camillo; Slate, Jon; Pemberton, Josephine M.

2016-01-01

Meiotic recombination breaks down linkage disequilibrium (LD) and forms new haplotypes, meaning that it is an important driver of diversity in eukaryotic genomes. Understanding the causes of variation in recombination rate is important in interpreting and predicting evolutionary phenomena and in understanding the potential of a population to respond to selection. However, despite attention in model systems, there remains little data on how recombination rate varies at the individual level in natural populations. Here we used extensive pedigree and high-density SNP information in a wild population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) to investigate the genetic architecture of individual autosomal recombination rates. Individual rates were high relative to other mammal systems and were higher in males than in females (autosomal map lengths of 3748 and 2860 cM, respectively). The heritability of autosomal recombination rate was low but significant in both sexes (h2 = 0.16 and 0.12 in females and males, respectively). In females, 46.7% of the heritable variation was explained by a subtelomeric region on chromosome 6; a genome-wide association study showed the strongest associations at locus RNF212, with further associations observed at a nearby ∼374-kb region of complete LD containing three additional candidate loci, CPLX1, GAK, and PCGF3. A second region on chromosome 7 containing REC8 and RNF212B explained 26.2% of the heritable variation in recombination rate in both sexes. Comparative analyses with 40 other sheep breeds showed that haplotypes associated with recombination rates are both old and globally distributed. Both regions have been implicated in rate variation in mice, cattle, and humans, suggesting a common genetic architecture of recombination rate variation in mammals. PMID:27029733

Conserved Genetic Architecture Underlying Individual Recombination Rate Variation in a Wild Population of Soay Sheep (Ovis aries).

PubMed

Johnston, Susan E; Bérénos, Camillo; Slate, Jon; Pemberton, Josephine M

2016-05-01

Meiotic recombination breaks down linkage disequilibrium (LD) and forms new haplotypes, meaning that it is an important driver of diversity in eukaryotic genomes. Understanding the causes of variation in recombination rate is important in interpreting and predicting evolutionary phenomena and in understanding the potential of a population to respond to selection. However, despite attention in model systems, there remains little data on how recombination rate varies at the individual level in natural populations. Here we used extensive pedigree and high-density SNP information in a wild population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) to investigate the genetic architecture of individual autosomal recombination rates. Individual rates were high relative to other mammal systems and were higher in males than in females (autosomal map lengths of 3748 and 2860 cM, respectively). The heritability of autosomal recombination rate was low but significant in both sexes (h(2) = 0.16 and 0.12 in females and males, respectively). In females, 46.7% of the heritable variation was explained by a subtelomeric region on chromosome 6; a genome-wide association study showed the strongest associations at locus RNF212, with further associations observed at a nearby ∼374-kb region of complete LD containing three additional candidate loci, CPLX1, GAK, and PCGF3 A second region on chromosome 7 containing REC8 and RNF212B explained 26.2% of the heritable variation in recombination rate in both sexes. Comparative analyses with 40 other sheep breeds showed that haplotypes associated with recombination rates are both old and globally distributed. Both regions have been implicated in rate variation in mice, cattle, and humans, suggesting a common genetic architecture of recombination rate variation in mammals. Copyright © 2016 by the Genetics Society of America.

The diploid genome sequence of an Asian individual

PubMed Central

Wang, Jun; Wang, Wei; Li, Ruiqiang; Li, Yingrui; Tian, Geng; Goodman, Laurie; Fan, Wei; Zhang, Junqing; Li, Jun; Zhang, Juanbin; Guo, Yiran; Feng, Binxiao; Li, Heng; Lu, Yao; Fang, Xiaodong; Liang, Huiqing; Du, Zhenglin; Li, Dong; Zhao, Yiqing; Hu, Yujie; Yang, Zhenzhen; Zheng, Hancheng; Hellmann, Ines; Inouye, Michael; Pool, John; Yi, Xin; Zhao, Jing; Duan, Jinjie; Zhou, Yan; Qin, Junjie; Ma, Lijia; Li, Guoqing; Yang, Zhentao; Zhang, Guojie; Yang, Bin; Yu, Chang; Liang, Fang; Li, Wenjie; Li, Shaochuan; Li, Dawei; Ni, Peixiang; Ruan, Jue; Li, Qibin; Zhu, Hongmei; Liu, Dongyuan; Lu, Zhike; Li, Ning; Guo, Guangwu; Zhang, Jianguo; Ye, Jia; Fang, Lin; Hao, Qin; Chen, Quan; Liang, Yu; Su, Yeyang; san, A.; Ping, Cuo; Yang, Shuang; Chen, Fang; Li, Li; Zhou, Ke; Zheng, Hongkun; Ren, Yuanyuan; Yang, Ling; Gao, Yang; Yang, Guohua; Li, Zhuo; Feng, Xiaoli; Kristiansen, Karsten; Wong, Gane Ka-Shu; Nielsen, Rasmus; Durbin, Richard; Bolund, Lars; Zhang, Xiuqing; Li, Songgang; Yang, Huanming; Wang, Jian

2009-01-01

Here we present the first diploid genome sequence of an Asian individual. The genome was sequenced to 36-fold average coverage using massively parallel sequencing technology. We aligned the short reads onto the NCBI human reference genome to 99.97% coverage, and guided by the reference genome, we used uniquely mapped reads to assemble a high-quality consensus sequence for 92% of the Asian individual's genome. We identified approximately 3 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) inside this region, of which 13.6% were not in the dbSNP database. Genotyping analysis showed that SNP identification had high accuracy and consistency, indicating the high sequence quality of this assembly. We also carried out heterozygote phasing and haplotype prediction against HapMap CHB and JPT haplotypes (Chinese and Japanese, respectively), sequence comparison with the two available individual genomes (J. D. Watson and J. C. Venter), and structural variation identification. These variations were considered for their potential biological impact. Our sequence data and analyses demonstrate the potential usefulness of next-generation sequencing technologies for personal genomics. PMID:18987735

Use of cumulative mortality data in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice: observational study.

PubMed

Lawrance, R A; Dorsch, M F; Sapsford, R J; Mackintosh, A F; Greenwood, D C; Jackson, B M; Morrell, C; Robinson, M B; Hall, A S

2001-08-11

Use of cumulative mortality adjusted for case mix in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice. Observational study. 20 hospitals across the former Yorkshire region. All 2153 consecutive patients with confirmed acute myocardial infarction identified during three months. Variable life-adjusted displays showing cumulative differences between observed and expected mortality of patients; expected mortality calculated from risk model based on admission characteristics of age, heart rate, and systolic blood pressure. The performance of two individual hospitals over three months was examined as an example. One, the smallest district hospital in the region, had a series of 30 consecutive patients but had five more deaths than predicted. The variable life-adjusted display showed minimal variation from that predicted for the first 15 patients followed by a run of unexpectedly high mortality. The second example was the main tertiary referral centre for the region, which admitted 188 consecutive patients. The display showed a period of apparently poor performance followed by substantial improvement, where the plot rose steadily from a cumulative net lives saved of -4 to 7. These variations in patient outcome are unlikely to have been revealed during conventional audit practice. Variable life-adjusted display has been integrated into surgical care as a graphical display of risk-adjusted survival for individual surgeons or centres. In combination with a simple risk model, it may have a role in monitoring performance and outcome in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

Community patterns of tropical tree phenology derived from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle images: intra- and interspecific variation, association with species plant traits, and response to interannual climate variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohlman, Stephanie; Rifai, Sami; Park, John; Dandois, Jonathan; Muller-Landau, Helene

2017-04-01

Phenology is a key life history trait of plant species and critical driver of ecosystem processes. There is strong evidence that phenology is shifting in temperate ecosystems in response to climate change, but tropical forest phenology remains poorly quantified and understood. A key challenge is that tropical forests contain hundreds of plant species with a wide variety of phenological patterns, which makes it difficult to collect sufficient ground-based field data to characterize individual tropical tree species phenologies. Satellite-based observations, an important source of phenology data in northern latitudes, are hindered by frequent cloud cover in the tropics. To quantify phenology over a large number of individuals and species, we collected bi-weekly images from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the well-studied 50-ha forest inventory plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The objective of this study is to quantify inter- and intra-specific responses of tropical tree leaf phenology to environmental variation over large spatial scales and identify key environmental variables and physiological mechanisms underpinning phenological variation. Between October 2014 and December 2015 and again in May 2015, we collected a total of 35 sets of UAV images, each with continuous coverage of the 50-ha plot, where every tree ≥ 1 cm DBH is mapped. UAV imagery was corrected for exposure, orthorectified, and then processed to extract spectral, texture, and image information for individual tree crowns, which was then used as inputs for a machine learning algorithm that successfully predicted the percentages of leaf, branch, and flower cover for each tree crown (r2=0.76 between observed and predicted percent branch cover for individual tree crowns). We then quantified cumulative annual deciduousness for each crown by fitting a non-parametric curve of flexible shape to its predicted percent branch time series and calculated the area under the curve. We obtained the species identities of 2000 crowns in the images by linking the crowns to stem tags in the field, thus producing a time series of cumulative annual deciduousness for 65 species. Deciduousness showed continuous variation among species rather than distinct phenological categories (ie evergreen and deciduous) that are commonly used in physiological, ecosystem and modeling studies. Some species labelled as evergreen by expert-based classification had annual deciduousness higher than those labelled as deciduous. We found significant, positive relationships between species mean deciduousness and species' leaf phosphorous, photosynthetic capacity and adult relative growth rate, suggesting that higher deciduousness is associated with greater resource acquisition. Comparing May 2015 (during an El Nino drought) and May 2014 (an non El Nino year with normal rainfall), mean deciduousness values for nearly all species was greater in 2015 but with differing levels of intraspecific variation. We discuss how the variation in deciduousness among species, its relationship with plant traits and response to the drought might be incorporated into terrestrial biosphere models of tropical forests to more accurately represent phenology and understand the consequences of community-level variation in phenology for ecosystem processes.

Population-level genetic variation and climate change in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Schierenbeck, Kristina A

2017-01-01

Estimated future climate scenarios can be used to predict where hotspots of endemism may occur over the next century, but life history, ecological and genetic traits will be important in informing the varying responses within myriad taxa. Essential to predicting the consequences of climate change to individual species will be an understanding of the factors that drive genetic structure within and among populations. Here, I review the factors that influence the genetic structure of plant species in California, but are applicable elsewhere; existing levels of genetic variation, life history and ecological characteristics will affect the ability of an individual taxon to persist in the presence of anthropogenic change. Persistence in the face of climate change is likely determined by life history characteristics: dispersal ability, generation time, reproductive ability, degree of habitat specialization, plant-insect interactions, existing genetic diversity and availability of habitat or migration corridors. Existing levels of genetic diversity in plant populations vary based on a number of evolutionary scenarios that include endemism, expansion since the last glacial maximum, breeding system and current range sizes. A number of well-documented examples are provided from the California Floristic Province. Some predictions can be made for the responses of plant taxa to rapid environmental changes based on geographic position, evolutionary history, existing genetic variation, and ecological amplitude. The prediction of how species will respond to climate change will require a synthesis drawing from population genetics, geography, palaeontology and ecology. The important integration of the historical factors that have shaped the distribution and existing genetic structure of California's plant taxa will enable us to predict and prioritize the conservation of species and areas most likely to be impacted by rapid climate change, human disturbance and invasive species. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Timescales alter the inferred strength and temporal consistency of intraspecific diet specialization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Novak, Mark; Tinker, M. Tim

2015-01-01

Many populations consist of individuals that differ substantially in their diets. Quantification of the magnitude and temporal consistency of such intraspecific diet variation is needed to understand its importance, but the extent to which different approaches for doing so reflect instantaneous vs. time-aggregated measures of individual diets may bias inferences. We used direct observations of sea otter individuals (Enhydra lutris nereis) to assess how: (1) the timescale of sampling, (2) under-sampling, and (3) the incidence- vs. frequency-based consideration of prey species affect the inferred strength and consistency of intraspecific diet variation. Analyses of feeding observations aggregated over hourly to annual intervals revealed a substantial bias associated with time aggregation that decreases the inferred magnitude of specialization and increases the inferred consistency of individuals’ diets. Time aggregation also made estimates of specialization more sensitive to the consideration of prey frequency, which decreased estimates relative to the use of prey incidence; time aggregation did not affect the extent to which under-sampling contributed to its overestimation. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of studying intraspecific diet variation with an explicit consideration of time and thereby suggest guidelines for future empirical efforts. Failure to consider time will likely produce inconsistent predictions regarding the effects of intraspecific variation on predator–prey interactions.

Development of a forensic skin colour predictive test.

PubMed

Maroñas, Olalla; Phillips, Chris; Söchtig, Jens; Gomez-Tato, Antonio; Cruz, Raquel; Alvarez-Dios, José; de Cal, María Casares; Ruiz, Yarimar; Fondevila, Manuel; Carracedo, Ángel; Lareu, María V

2014-11-01

There is growing interest in skin colour prediction in the forensic field. However, a lack of consensus approaches for recording skin colour phenotype plus the complicating factors of epistatic effects, environmental influences such as exposure to the sun and unidentified genetic variants, present difficulties for the development of a forensic skin colour predictive test centred on the most strongly associated SNPs. Previous studies have analysed skin colour variation in single unadmixed population groups, including South Asians (Stokowski et al., 2007, Am. J. Hum. Genet, 81: 1119-32) and Europeans (Jacobs et al., 2013, Hum Genet. 132: 147-58). Nevertheless, a major challenge lies in the analysis of skin colour in admixed individuals, where co-ancestry proportions do not necessarily dictate any one person's skin colour. Our study sought to analyse genetic differences between African, European and admixed African-European subjects where direct spectrometric measurements and photographs of skin colour were made in parallel. We identified strong associations to skin colour variation in the subjects studied from a pigmentation SNP discovery panel of 59 markers and developed a forensic online classifier based on naïve Bayes analysis of the SNP profiles made. A skin colour predictive test is described using the ten most strongly associated SNPs in 8 genes linked to skin pigmentation variation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Williams syndrome deletions and duplications: Genetic windows to understanding anxiety, sociality, autism, and schizophrenia.

PubMed

Crespi, Bernard J; Procyshyn, Tanya L

2017-08-01

We describe and evaluate an integrative hypothesis for helping to explain the major neurocognitive features of individuals with Williams syndrome region deletions and duplications. First, we demonstrate how the cognitive differences between Williams syndrome individuals, individuals with duplications of this region, and healthy individuals parallel the differences between individuals subject to effects of increased or decreased oxytocin. Second, we synthesize evidence showing that variation in expression of the gene GTF2I (General Transcription Factor II-I) underlies the primary social phenotypes of Williams syndrome and that common genetic variation in GTF2I mediates oxytocin reactivity, and its correlates, in healthy populations. Third, we describe findings relevant to the hypothesis that the GTF2I gene is subject to parent of origin effects whose behavioral expression fits with predictions from the kinship theory of genomic imprinting. Fourth, we describe how Williams syndrome can be considered, in part, as an autistic syndrome of Lorna Wing's 'active-but-odd' autism subtype, in contrast to associations of duplications with both schizophrenia and autism. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Animal-to-Animal Variation in Odor Preference and Neural Representation of Odors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honegger, Kyle; Smith, Matthew; Turner, Glenn; de Bivort, Benjamin

Across any population of animals, individuals exhibit diverse behaviors and reactions to sensory stimuli like tastes and odors. While idiosyncratic behavior is ubiquitous, its biological basis is poorly understood. In this talk, I will present evidence that individual fruit flies (Drosophila melanogaster) display idiosyncratic olfactory behaviors and discuss our ongoing efforts to map these behavioral differences to variation in neural circuits. Using a high-throughput, single-fly assay for odor preference, we have demonstrated that highly inbred flies display substantial animal-to-animal variability, beyond that expected from experimental error, and that these preferences persist over days. Using in vivo two-photon calcium imaging, we are beginning to examine the idiosyncrasy of neural coding in the fly olfactory pathway and find that the odor responses of individual processing channels in the antennal lobe can vary substantially from fly to fly. These results imply that individual differences in neural coding may be used to predict the idiosyncratic behavior of an individual - a hypothesis we are currently testing by imaging neural activity from flies after measuring their odor preferences.

Variability in expression of anadromy by female Oncorhynchus mykiss within a river network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, Justin S.; Dunham, Jason B.; Reeves, Gordon H.; McMillan, John R.; Zimmerman, Christian E.; Jordan, Chris E.

2012-01-01

We described and predicted spatial variation in marine migration (anadromy) of female Oncorhynchus mykiss in the John Day River watershed, Oregon. We collected 149 juvenile O. mykiss across 72 sites and identified locations used by anadromous females by assigning maternal origin (anadromous versus non-anadromous) to each juvenile. These assignments used comparisons of strontium to calcium ratios in otolith primordia and freshwater growth regions to indicate maternal origin. We used logistic regression to predict probability of anadromy in relation to mean annual stream runoff using data from a subset of individuals. This model correctly predicted anadromy in a second sample of individuals with a moderate level of accuracy (e.g., 68% correctly predicted with a 0.5 classification threshold). Residuals from the models were not spatially autocorrelated, suggesting that remaining variability in the expression of anadromy was due to localized influences, as opposed to broad-scale gradients unrelated to mean annual stream runoff. These results are important for the management of O. mykiss because anadromous individuals (steelhead) within the John Day River watershed are listed as a threatened species, and it is difficult to discern juvenile steelhead from non-anadromous individuals (rainbow trout) in the field. Our results provide a broad-scale description and prediction of locations supporting anadromy, and new insight for habitat restoration, monitoring, and research to better manage and understand the expression of anadromy in O. mykiss.

Modulation of the conflict monitoring intensity: the role of aversive reinforcement, cognitive demand, and trait-BIS.

PubMed

Leue, Anja; Lange, Sebastian; Beauducel, André

2012-06-01

According to Botvinick's (2007) integrative account, conflict monitoring is aversive because individuals anticipate cognitive demand, whereas the revised reinforcement sensitivity theory (rRST) predicts that conflict processing is aversive because individuals anticipate aversive reinforcement of erroneous responses. Because these accounts give different reasons for the aversive aspects of conflict, we manipulated cognitive demand and the aversive reinforcement as a consequence of wrong choices in a go/no-go task. Thereby, we also aimed to investigate whether individual differences in conflict sensitivity (i.e., in trait anxiety, linked to high sensitivity of the behavioral inhibition system [trait-BIS]) represent the effects of aversive reinforcement and cognitive demand in conflict tasks. We expected that these manipulations would have effects on the frontal N2 component representing activity of the anterior cingulate cortex. Moreover, higher-trait-BIS individuals should be more sensitive than lower-trait-BIS individuals to aversive effects in conflict situations, resulting in a more negative frontal N2 for higher-trait-BIS individuals. In Study 1, with N = 104 students, and Study 2, with N = 47 students, aversive reinforcement was manipulated in three levels (within-subjects factor) and cognitive demand in two levels (between-subjects factor). The behavioral findings from the go/no-go task with noncounterbalanced reinforcement levels (Study 1) could be widely replicated in a task with counterbalanced reinforcement levels (Study 2). The frontal mean no-go N2 amplitude and the frontal no-go N2 dipole captured predicted reinforcement-related variations of conflict monitoring, indicating that the anticipation of aversive reinforcement induces variations in conflict monitoring intensity in frontal brain areas. The aversive nature of conflict was underlined by the more pronounced conflict monitoring in higher- than in lower-trait-BIS individuals.

Estimating age from recapture data: integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell J.; Link, William A.

2011-01-01

Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture–recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated to be at nine years. These size benchmarks are believed to represent thresholds for important demographic parameters; improved estimates of age, therefore, will increase the precision of population projection models. The modeling approach that we present can be applied to other species and offers significant advantages when multiple sources of data are available and traditional aging techniques are not practical.

Selenium:Mercury Molar Ratios in Freshwater Fish from Tennessee: Individual, Species, and Geographical Variations have Implications for Management

PubMed Central

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Jeitner, C.; Donio, M.; Pittfield, T.

2014-01-01

Vertebrates, including humans, can experience adverse effects from mercury consumed in fish. Humans often prefer large predatory fish that bioaccumulate high mercury levels. Recent attention has focused on the role of selenium countering mercury toxicity, but there is little research on the selenium:mercury molar ratios in freshwater fish. We examine selenium:mercury molar ratios in freshwater fish from Tennessee at Poplar Creek which receives ongoing inputs of mercury from the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge Y-12 facility. Our objective was to determine variation of the ratios within species that might affect the protectiveness of selenium against mercury toxicity. Within species, the ratio was correlated significantly and positively with fish length only for two species. There was great individual variation in the selenium:mercury molar ratio within each species, except striped bass. The lack of a clear relationship between the selenium:mercury molar ratio and fish length, and the intraspecific variation, suggests that it would be difficult to use the molar ratio in predicting either the risk from mercury toxicity or in devising consumption advisories. PMID:22456727

Individual Differences in Memory Search and Their Relation to Intelligence

PubMed Central

Healey, M. Karl; Crutchley, Patrick; Kahana, Michael J.

2014-01-01

Attempts to understand why memory predicts intelligence have not fully leveraged state-of-the-art measures of recall dynamics. Using data from a multi–session free recall study we examine individual differences in measures of recall initiation and post–initiation transitions. We identify four sources of variation: a recency factor reflecting variation in the tendency to initiate recall from an item near the end of the list, a primacy factor reflecting a tendency to initiate from the beginning of the list, a temporal factor corresponding to transitions mediated by temporal associations, and a semantic factor corresponding to semantically–mediated transitions. Together these four factors account for 83% of the variability in overall recall accuracy, suggesting they provide a nearly complete picture of recall dynamics. We also show that these sources of variability account for over 80% of the variance shared between memory and intelligence. The temporal association factor was the most influential in predicting both recall accuracy and intelligence. We outline a theory of how controlled drift of temporal context may be critical across a range of cognitive activities. PMID:24730719

Target Fortification of Breast Milk: Predicting the Final Osmolality of the Feeds

PubMed Central

Choi, Arum; Fusch, Gerhard; Rochow, Niels; Fusch, Christoph

2016-01-01

For preterm infants, it is common practice to add human milk fortifiers to native breast milk to enhance protein and calorie supply because the growth rates and nutritional requirements of preterm infants are considerably higher than those of term infants. However, macronutrient intake may still be inadequate because the composition of native breast milk has individual inter- and intra-sample variation. Target fortification (TFO) of breast milk is a new nutritional regime aiming to reduce such variations by individually measuring and adding deficient macronutrients. Added TFO components contribute to the final osmolality of milk feeds. It is important to predict the final osmolality of TFO breast milk to ensure current osmolality recommendations are followed to minimize feeding intolerance and necrotizing enterocolitis. This study aims to develop and validate equations to predict the osmolality of TFO milk batches. To establish prediction models, the osmolalities of either native or supplemented breast milk with known amounts of fat, protein, and carbohydrates were analyzed. To validate prediction models, the osmolalities of each macronutrient and combinations of macronutrients were measured in an independent sample set. Additionally, osmolality was measured in TFO milk samples obtained from a previous clinical study and compared with predicted osmolality using the prediction equations. Following the addition of 1 g of carbohydrates (glucose polymer), 1 g of hydrolyzed protein, or 1 g of whey protein per 100 mL breast milk, the average increase in osmolality was 20, 38, and 4 mOsm/kg respectively. Adding fat decreased osmolality only marginally due to dilution effect. Measured and predicted osmolality of combinations of macronutrients as well as single macronutrient (R2 = 0.93) were highly correlated. Using clinical data (n = 696), the average difference between the measured and predicted osmolality was 3 ± 11 mOsm/kg and was not statistically significant. In conclusion, the prediction model can be utilized to estimate osmolality values after fortification. PMID:26863130

Variation in White Matter Connectivity Predicts the Ability to Remember Faces and Discriminate Their Emotions

PubMed Central

Unger, Ashley; Alm, Kylie H.; Collins, Jessica A.; O’Leary, Jacqueline M.; Olson, Ingrid R.

2017-01-01

Objective The extended face network contains clusters of neurons that perform distinct functions on facial stimuli. Regions in the posterior ventral visual stream appear to perform basic perceptual functions on faces, while more anterior regions, such as the ventral anterior temporal lobe and amygdala, function to link mnemonic and affective information to faces. Anterior and posterior regions are interconnected by a long-range white matter tracts however it is not known if variation in connectivity of these pathways explains cognitive performance. Methods Here, we used diffusion imaging and deterministic tractography in a cohort of 28 neurologically normal adults ages 18–28 to examine microstructural properties of visual fiber pathways and their relationship to certain mnemonic and affective functions involved in face processing. We investigated how inter-individual variability in two tracts, the inferior longitudinal fasciculus (ILF) and the inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus (IFOF), related to performance on tests of facial emotion recognition and face memory. Results Results revealed that microstructure of both tracts predicted variability in behavioral performance indexed by both tasks, suggesting that the ILF and IFOF play a role in facilitating our ability to discriminate emotional expressions in faces, as well as to remember unique faces. Variation in a control tract, the uncinate fasciculus, did not predict performance on these tasks. Conclusions These results corroborate and extend the findings of previous neuropsychology studies investigating the effects of damage to the ILF and IFOF, and demonstrate that differences in face processing abilities are related to white matter microstructure, even in healthy individuals. PMID:26888615

Genetic variability in residual feed intake in rainbow trout clones and testing of indirect selection criteria (Open Access publication).

PubMed

Grima, Laure; Quillet, Edwige; Boujard, Thierry; Robert-Granié, Christèle; Chatain, Béatrice; Mambrini, Muriel

2008-01-01

Little is known about the genetic basis of residual feed intake (RFI) variation in fish, since this trait is highly sensitive to environmental influences, and feed intake of individuals is difficult to measure accurately. The purpose of this work was (i) to assess the genetic variability of RFI estimated by an X-ray technique and (ii) to develop predictive criteria for RFI. Two predictive criteria were tested: loss of body weight during feed deprivation and compensatory growth during re-feeding. Ten heterozygous rainbow trout clones were used. Individual intake and body weight were measured three times at three week intervals. Then, individual body weight was recorded after two cycles of a three-week feed deprivation followed by a three-week re-feeding. The ratio of the genetic variance to the phenotypic variance was found high to moderate for growth, feed intake, and RFI (VG/VP = 0.63+/-0.11, 0.29 +/-0.11, 0.29 +/-0.09, respectively). The index that integrates performances achieved during deprivation and re-feeding periods explained 59% of RFI variations. These results provide a basis for further studies on the origin of RFI differences and show that indirect criteria are good candidates for future selective breeding programs.

Explaining biomass growth of tropical canopy trees: the importance of sapwood.

PubMed

van der Sande, Masha T; Zuidema, Pieter A; Sterck, Frank

2015-04-01

Tropical forests are important in worldwide carbon (C) storage and sequestration. C sequestration of these forests may especially be determined by the growth of canopy trees. However, the factors driving variation in growth among such large individuals remain largely unclear. We evaluate how crown traits [total leaf area, specific leaf area and leaf nitrogen (N) concentration] and stem traits [sapwood area (SA) and sapwood N concentration] measured for individual trees affect absolute biomass growth for 43 tropical canopy trees belonging to four species, in a moist forest in Bolivia. Biomass growth varied strongly among trees, between 17.3 and 367.3 kg year(-1), with an average of 105.4 kg year(-1). We found that variation in biomass growth was chiefly explained by a positive effect of SA, and not by tree size or other traits examined. SA itself was positively associated with sapwood growth, sapwood lifespan and basal area. We speculate that SA positively affects the growth of individual trees mainly by increasing water storage, thus securing water supply to the crown. These positive roles of sapwood on growth apparently offset the increased respiration costs incurred by more sapwood. This is one of the first individual-based studies to show that variation in sapwood traits-and not crown traits-explains variation in growth among tropical canopy trees. Accurate predictions of C dynamics in tropical forests require similar studies on biomass growth of individual trees as well as studies evaluating the dual effect of sapwood (water provision vs. respiratory costs) on tropical tree growth.

EVENT PREDICTION AND AFFECTIVE FORECASTING IN DEPRESSIVE COGNITION: USING EMOTION AS INFORMATION ABOUT THE FUTURE.

PubMed

Marroquín, Brett; Nolen-Hoeksema, Susan

2015-02-01

Depression is characterized by a bleak view of the future, but the mechanisms through which depressed mood is integrated into basic processes of future-oriented cognition are unclear. We hypothesized that dysphoric individuals' predictions of what will happen in the future ( likelihood estimation ) and how the future will feel ( affective forecasting ) are attributable to individual differences in incorporating present emotion as judgment-relevant information. Dysphoric individuals ( n = 77) made pessimistic likelihood estimates and blunted positive affective forecasts relative to controls ( n = 84). These differences were mediated by dysphoric individuals' tendencies to rely on negative emotion as information more than controls-and on positive emotion less-independent of anhedonia. These findings suggest that (1) blunted positive affective forecasting is a distinctive component of depressive future-oriented cognition, and (2) future-oriented cognitive processes are linked not just to current emotional state, but also to individual variation in using that emotion as information. This role of individual differences elucidates basic mechanisms in future-oriented cognition, and suggests routes for intervention on interrelated cognitive and affective processes in depression.

The influence of genetic and environmental factors in estimations of current body size, desired body size, and body dissatisfaction.

PubMed

Wade, T D; Bulik, C M; Heath, A C; Martin, N G; Eaves, L J

2001-08-01

The objective was to investigate the genetic epidemiology of figural stimuli. Standard figural stimuli were available from 5,325 complete twin pairs: 1,751 (32.9%) were monozygotic females, 1,068 (20.1%) were dizygotic females, 752 (14.1%) were monozygotic males, 495 (9.3%) were dizygotic males, and 1,259 (23.6%) were dizygotic male-female pairs. Univariate twin analyses were used to examine the influences on the individual variation in current body size and ideal body size. These data were analysed separately for men and women in each of five age groups. A factorial analysis of variance, with polychoric correlations between twin pairs as the dependent variable, and age, sex, zygosity, and the three interaction terms (age x sex, age x zygosity, sex x zygosity) as independent variables, was used to examine trends across the whole data set. Results showed genetic influences had the largest impact on the individual variation in current body size measures, whereas non-shared environmental influences were associated with the majority of individual variation in ideal body size. There was a significant main effect of zygosity (heritability) in predicting polychoric correlations for current body size and body dissatisfaction. There was a significant main effect of gender and zygosity in predicting ideal body size, with a gender x zygosity interaction. In common with BMI, heritability is important in influencing the estimation of current body size. Selection of desired body size for both men and women is more strongly influenced by environmental factors.

Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christoffersen, Bradley O.; Gloor, Manuel; Fauset, Sophie; Fyllas, Nikolaos M.; Galbraith, David R.; Baker, Timothy R.; Kruijt, Bart; Rowland, Lucy; Fisher, Rosie A.; Binks, Oliver J.; Sevanto, Sanna; Xu, Chonggang; Jansen, Steven; Choat, Brendan; Mencuccini, Maurizio; McDowell, Nate G.; Meir, Patrick

2016-11-01

Forest ecosystem models based on heuristic water stress functions poorly predict tropical forest response to drought partly because they do not capture the diversity of hydraulic traits (including variation in tree size) observed in tropical forests. We developed a continuous porous media approach to modeling plant hydraulics in which all parameters of the constitutive equations are biologically interpretable and measurable plant hydraulic traits (e.g., turgor loss point πtlp, bulk elastic modulus ɛ, hydraulic capacitance Cft, xylem hydraulic conductivity ks,max, water potential at 50 % loss of conductivity for both xylem (P50,x) and stomata (P50,gs), and the leaf : sapwood area ratio Al : As). We embedded this plant hydraulics model within a trait forest simulator (TFS) that models light environments of individual trees and their upper boundary conditions (transpiration), as well as providing a means for parameterizing variation in hydraulic traits among individuals. We synthesized literature and existing databases to parameterize all hydraulic traits as a function of stem and leaf traits, including wood density (WD), leaf mass per area (LMA), and photosynthetic capacity (Amax), and evaluated the coupled model (called TFS v.1-Hydro) predictions, against observed diurnal and seasonal variability in stem and leaf water potential as well as stand-scaled sap flux. Our hydraulic trait synthesis revealed coordination among leaf and xylem hydraulic traits and statistically significant relationships of most hydraulic traits with more easily measured plant traits. Using the most informative empirical trait-trait relationships derived from this synthesis, TFS v.1-Hydro successfully captured individual variation in leaf and stem water potential due to increasing tree size and light environment, with model representation of hydraulic architecture and plant traits exerting primary and secondary controls, respectively, on the fidelity of model predictions. The plant hydraulics model made substantial improvements to simulations of total ecosystem transpiration. Remaining uncertainties and limitations of the trait paradigm for plant hydraulics modeling are highlighted.

Carbon dioxide from coal combustion: Variation with rank of US coal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quick, J.C.; Glick, D.C.

2000-01-01

Carbon dioxide from combustion of US coal systematically varies with ASTM rank indices, allowing the amount of CO2 produced per net unit of energy to be predicted for individual coals. No single predictive equation is applicable to all coals. Accordingly, we provide one equation for coals above high volatile bituminous rank and another for lower rank coals. When applied to public data for commercial coals from western US mines these equations show a 15% variation of kg CO2 (net GJ)-1. This range of variation suggests reduction of US CO2 emissions is possible by prudent selection of coal for combustion. Maceral and mineral content are shown to slightly affect CO2 emissions from US coal. We also suggest that CO2 emissions increased between 6 and 8% in instances where Midwestern US power plants stopped burning local, high-sulfur bituminous coal and started burning low-sulfur, subbituminous C rank coal from the western US.

Ecological and evolutionary drivers of the elevational gradient of diversity.

PubMed

Laiolo, Paola; Pato, Joaquina; Obeso, José Ramón

2018-05-02

Ecological, evolutionary, spatial and neutral theories make distinct predictions and provide distinct explanations for the mechanisms that control the relationship between diversity and the environment. Here, we test predictions of the elevational diversity gradient focusing on Iberian bumblebees, grasshoppers and birds. Processes mediated by local abundance and regional diversity concur in explaining local diversity patterns along elevation. Effects expressed through variation in abundance were similar among taxa and point to the overriding role of a physical factor, temperature. This determines how energy is distributed among individuals and ultimately how the resulting pattern of abundance affects species incidence. Effects expressed through variation in regional species pools depended instead on taxon-specific evolutionary history, and lead to diverging responses under similar environmental pressures. Local filters and regional variation also explain functional diversity gradients, in line with results from species richness that indicate an (local) ecological and (regional) historical unfolding of diversity-elevation relationships. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Impact of individual nuclear masses on r -process abundances

DOE PAGES

Mumpower, M. R.; Surman, R.; Fang, D. -L.; ...

2015-09-15

We have performed for the first time a comprehensive study of the sensitivity of r-process nucleosynthesis to individual nuclear masses across the chart of nuclides. Using the latest version (2012) of the Finite-Range Droplet Model, we consider mass variations of ±0.5 MeV and propagate each mass change to all affected quantities, including Q values, reaction rates, and branching ratios. We find such mass variations can result in up to an order of magnitude local change in the final abundance pattern produced in an r-process simulation. As a result, we identify key nuclei whose masses have a substantial impact on abundancemore » predictions for hot, cold, and neutron star merger r-process scenarios and could be measured at future radioactive beam facilities.« less

Linking behavioural syndromes and cognition: a behavioural ecology perspective

PubMed Central

Sih, Andrew; Del Giudice, Marco

2012-01-01

With the exception of a few model species, individual differences in cognition remain relatively unstudied in non-human animals. One intriguing possibility is that variation in cognition is functionally related to variation in personality. Here, we review some examples and present hypotheses on relationships between personality (or behavioural syndromes) and individual differences in cognitive style. Our hypotheses are based largely on a connection between fast–slow behavioural types (BTs; e.g. boldness, aggressiveness, exploration tendency) and cognitive speed–accuracy trade-offs. We also discuss connections between BTs, cognition and ecologically important aspects of decision-making, including sampling, impulsivity, risk sensitivity and choosiness. Finally, we introduce the notion of cognition syndromes, and apply ideas from theories on adaptive behavioural syndromes to generate predictions on cognition syndromes. PMID:22927575

Predicting Individual Differences in Placebo Analgesia: Contributions of Brain Activity during Anticipation and Pain Experience

PubMed Central

Wager, Tor D.; Atlas, Lauren Y.; Leotti, Lauren A.; Rilling, James K.

2012-01-01

Recent studies have identified brain correlates of placebo analgesia, but none have assessed how accurately patterns of brain activity can predict individual differences in placebo responses. We reanalyzed data from two fMRI studies of placebo analgesia (N = 47), using patterns of fMRI activity during the anticipation and experience of pain to predict new subjects’ scores on placebo analgesia and placebo-induced changes in pain processing. We used a cross-validated regression procedure, LASSO-PCR, which provided both unbiased estimates of predictive accuracy and interpretable maps of which regions are most important for prediction. Increased anticipatory activity in a frontoparietal network and decreases in a posterior insular/temporal network predicted placebo analgesia. Patterns of anticipatory activity across the cortex predicted a moderate amount of variance in the placebo response (~12% overall, ~40% for study 2 alone), which is substantial considering the multiple likely contributing factors. The most predictive regions were those associated with emotional appraisal, rather than cognitive control or pain processing. During pain, decreases in limbic and paralimbic regions most strongly predicted placebo analgesia. Responses within canonical pain-processing regions explained significant variance in placebo analgesia, but the pattern of effects was inconsistent with widespread decreases in nociceptive processing. Together, the findings suggest that engagement of emotional appraisal circuits drives individual variation in placebo analgesia, rather than early suppression of nociceptive processing. This approach provides a framework that will allow prediction accuracy to increase as new studies provide more precise information for future predictive models. PMID:21228154

Individual differences in normal body temperature: longitudinal big data analysis of patient records.

PubMed

Obermeyer, Ziad; Samra, Jasmeet K; Mullainathan, Sendhil

2017-12-13

To estimate individual level body temperature and to correlate it with other measures of physiology and health. Observational cohort study. Outpatient clinics of a large academic hospital, 2009-14. 35 488 patients who neither received a diagnosis for infections nor were prescribed antibiotics, in whom temperature was expected to be within normal limits. Baseline temperatures at individual level, estimated using random effects regression and controlling for ambient conditions at the time of measurement, body site, and time factors. Baseline temperatures were correlated with demographics, medical comorbidities, vital signs, and subsequent one year mortality. In a diverse cohort of 35 488 patients (mean age 52.9 years, 64% women, 41% non-white race) with 243 506 temperature measurements, mean temperature was 36.6°C (95% range 35.7-37.3°C, 99% range 35.3-37.7°C). Several demographic factors were linked to individual level temperature, with older people the coolest (-0.021°C for every decade, P<0.001) and African-American women the hottest (versus white men: 0.052°C, P<0.001). Several comorbidities were linked to lower temperature (eg, hypothyroidism: -0.013°C, P=0.01) or higher temperature (eg, cancer: 0.020, P<0.001), as were physiological measurements (eg, body mass index: 0.002 per m/kg 2 , P<0.001). Overall, measured factors collectively explained only 8.2% of individual temperature variation. Despite this, unexplained temperature variation was a significant predictor of subsequent mortality: controlling for all measured factors, an increase of 0.149°C (1 SD of individual temperature in the data) was linked to 8.4% higher one year mortality (P=0.014). Individuals' baseline temperatures showed meaningful variation that was not due solely to measurement error or environmental factors. Baseline temperatures correlated with demographics, comorbid conditions, and physiology, but these factors explained only a small part of individual temperature variation. Unexplained variation in baseline temperature, however, strongly predicted mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Behavioural plasticity across social contexts is regulated by the directionality of inter-individual differences.

PubMed

Guayasamin, Olivia L; Couzin, Iain D; Miller, Noam Y

2017-08-01

An individual's behavioural phenotype is a combination of its unique behavioural propensities and its responsiveness to environmental variation, also known as behavioural plasticity. In social species, we must not only explore how individuals respond to variations in the physical environment but also how they react to changes in their social environment. A growing body of work has demonstrated that the behavioural heterogeneity of a group can alter its responsiveness, decision making, and fitness. Whether an individual is more or less extreme than a partner - what we term its 'relative personality' - may also alter individual behavioural responses. We determined exploratory tendencies of individual zebrafish (Danio rerio) and then constructed pairs with varying differences in 'relative personality' to determine the effect of differences between partners on behavioural plasticity. We find that relative personality, but not the magnitude of the difference between partners, is the most important determinant of behavioural plasticity across social treatments. Despite this overall effect, pairs of fish exhibited no predictable leader-follower interactions, suggesting that details of the experimental paradigm may be important in shaping social dynamics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial working memory capacity predicts bias in estimates of location.

PubMed

Crawford, L Elizabeth; Landy, David; Salthouse, Timothy A

2016-09-01

Spatial memory research has attributed systematic bias in location estimates to a combination of a noisy memory trace with a prior structure that people impose on the space. Little is known about intraindividual stability and interindividual variation in these patterns of bias. In the current work, we align recent empirical and theoretical work on working memory capacity limits and spatial memory bias to generate the prediction that those with lower working memory capacity will show greater bias in memory of the location of a single item. Reanalyzing data from a large study of cognitive aging, we find support for this prediction. Fitting separate models to individuals' data revealed a surprising variety of strategies. Some were consistent with Bayesian models of spatial category use, however roughly half of participants biased estimates outward in a way not predicted by current models and others seemed to combine these strategies. These analyses highlight the importance of studying individuals when developing general models of cognition. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Application of random effects to the study of resource selection by animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gillies, C.S.; Hebblewhite, M.; Nielsen, S.E.; Krawchuk, M.A.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Frair, J.L.; Saher, D.J.; Stevens, C.E.; Jerde, C.L.

2006-01-01

1. Resource selection estimated by logistic regression is used increasingly in studies to identify critical resources for animal populations and to predict species occurrence.2. Most frequently, individual animals are monitored and pooled to estimate population-level effects without regard to group or individual-level variation. Pooling assumes that both observations and their errors are independent, and resource selection is constant given individual variation in resource availability.3. Although researchers have identified ways to minimize autocorrelation, variation between individuals caused by differences in selection or available resources, including functional responses in resource selection, have not been well addressed.4. Here we review random-effects models and their application to resource selection modelling to overcome these common limitations. We present a simple case study of an analysis of resource selection by grizzly bears in the foothills of the Canadian Rocky Mountains with and without random effects.5. Both categorical and continuous variables in the grizzly bear model differed in interpretation, both in statistical significance and coefficient sign, depending on how a random effect was included. We used a simulation approach to clarify the application of random effects under three common situations for telemetry studies: (a) discrepancies in sample sizes among individuals; (b) differences among individuals in selection where availability is constant; and (c) differences in availability with and without a functional response in resource selection.6. We found that random intercepts accounted for unbalanced sample designs, and models with random intercepts and coefficients improved model fit given the variation in selection among individuals and functional responses in selection. Our empirical example and simulations demonstrate how including random effects in resource selection models can aid interpretation and address difficult assumptions limiting their generality. This approach will allow researchers to appropriately estimate marginal (population) and conditional (individual) responses, and account for complex grouping, unbalanced sample designs and autocorrelation.

Application of random effects to the study of resource selection by animals.

PubMed

Gillies, Cameron S; Hebblewhite, Mark; Nielsen, Scott E; Krawchuk, Meg A; Aldridge, Cameron L; Frair, Jacqueline L; Saher, D Joanne; Stevens, Cameron E; Jerde, Christopher L

2006-07-01

1. Resource selection estimated by logistic regression is used increasingly in studies to identify critical resources for animal populations and to predict species occurrence. 2. Most frequently, individual animals are monitored and pooled to estimate population-level effects without regard to group or individual-level variation. Pooling assumes that both observations and their errors are independent, and resource selection is constant given individual variation in resource availability. 3. Although researchers have identified ways to minimize autocorrelation, variation between individuals caused by differences in selection or available resources, including functional responses in resource selection, have not been well addressed. 4. Here we review random-effects models and their application to resource selection modelling to overcome these common limitations. We present a simple case study of an analysis of resource selection by grizzly bears in the foothills of the Canadian Rocky Mountains with and without random effects. 5. Both categorical and continuous variables in the grizzly bear model differed in interpretation, both in statistical significance and coefficient sign, depending on how a random effect was included. We used a simulation approach to clarify the application of random effects under three common situations for telemetry studies: (a) discrepancies in sample sizes among individuals; (b) differences among individuals in selection where availability is constant; and (c) differences in availability with and without a functional response in resource selection. 6. We found that random intercepts accounted for unbalanced sample designs, and models with random intercepts and coefficients improved model fit given the variation in selection among individuals and functional responses in selection. Our empirical example and simulations demonstrate how including random effects in resource selection models can aid interpretation and address difficult assumptions limiting their generality. This approach will allow researchers to appropriately estimate marginal (population) and conditional (individual) responses, and account for complex grouping, unbalanced sample designs and autocorrelation.

Chinese L1 children's English L2 verb morphology over time: individual variation in long-term outcomes.

PubMed

Paradis, Johanne; Tulpar, Yasemin; Arppe, Antti

2016-05-01

This study examined accuracy in production and grammaticality judgements of verb morphology by eighteen Chinese-speaking children learning English as a second language (L2) followed longitudinally from four to six years of exposure to English, and who began to learn English at age 4;2. Children's growth in accuracy with verb morphology reached a plateau by six years, where 11/18 children did not display native-speaker levels of accuracy for one or more morphemes. Variation in children's accuracy with verb morphology was predicted by their English vocabulary size and verbal short-term memories primarily, and quality and quantity of English input at home secondarily. This study shows that even very young L2 learners might not all catch up to native speakers in this time frame and that non-age factors play a role in determining individual variation in child L2 learners' long-term outcomes with English morphology.

Population variation and individual maximum size in two leech populations: energy extraction from cannibalism or niche widening?

PubMed

Persson, Lennart; Elliott, J Malcolm

2013-05-01

The theory of cannibal dynamics predicts a link between population dynamics and individual life history. In particular, increased individual growth has, in both modeling and empirical studies, been shown to result from a destabilization of population dynamics. We used data from a long-term study of the dynamics of two leech (Erpobdella octoculata) populations to test the hypothesis that maximum size should be higher in a cycling population; one of the study populations exhibited a delayed feedback cycle while the other population showed no sign of cyclicity. A hump-shaped relationship between individual mass of 1-year-old leeches and offspring density the previous year was present in both populations. As predicted from the theory, the maximum mass of individuals was much larger in the fluctuating population. In contrast to predictions, the higher growth rate was not related to energy extraction from cannibalism. Instead, the higher individual mass is suggested to be due to increased availability of resources due to a niche widening with increased individual body mass. The larger individual mass in the fluctuating population was related to a stronger correlation between the densities of 1-year-old individuals and 2-year-old individuals the following year in this population. Although cannibalism was the major mechanism regulating population dynamics, its importance was negligible in terms of providing cannibalizing individuals with energy subsequently increasing their fecundity. Instead, the study identifies a need for theoretical and empirical studies on the largely unstudied interplay between ontogenetic niche shifts and cannibalistic population dynamics.

Bimanual coordination positively predicts episodic memory: A combined behavioral and MRI investigation.

PubMed

Lyle, Keith B; Dombroski, Brynn A; Faul, Leonard; Hopkins, Robin F; Naaz, Farah; Switala, Andrew E; Depue, Brendan E

2017-11-01

Some people remember events more completely and accurately than other people, but the origins of individual differences in episodic memory are poorly understood. One way to advance understanding is by identifying characteristics of individuals that reliably covary with memory performance. Recent research suggests motor behavior is related to memory performance, with individuals who consistently use a single preferred hand for unimanual actions performing worse than individuals who make greater use of both hands. This research has relied on self-reports of behavior. It is unknown whether objective measures of motor behavior also predict memory performance. Here, we tested the predictive power of bimanual coordination, an important form of manual dexterity. Bimanual coordination, as measured objectively on the Purdue Pegboard Test, was positively related to correct recall on the California Verbal Learning Test-II and negatively related to false recall. Furthermore, MRI data revealed that cortical surface area in right lateral prefrontal regions was positively related to correct recall. In one of these regions, cortical thickness was negatively related to bimanual coordination. These results suggest that individual differences in episodic memory may partially reflect morphological variation in right lateral prefrontal cortex and suggest a relationship between neural correlates of episodic memory and motor behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Haplotypes in SLC24A5 Gene as Ancestry Informative Markers in Different Populations

PubMed Central

Giardina, Emiliano; Pietrangeli, Ilenia; Martínez-Labarga, Cristina; Martone, Claudia; de Angelis, Flavio; Spinella, Aldo; De Stefano, Gianfranco; Rickards, Olga; Novelli, Giuseppe

2008-01-01

Ancestry informative markers (AIMs) are human polymorphisms that exhibit substantially allele frequency differences among populations. These markers can be useful to provide information about ancestry of samples which may be useful in predicting a perpetrator’s ethnic origin to aid criminal investigations. Variations in human pigmentation are the most obvious phenotypes to distinguish individuals. It has been recently shown that the variation of a G in an A allele of the coding single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs1426654 within SLC24A5 gene varies in frequency among several population samples according to skin pigmentation. Because of these observations, the SLC24A5 locus has been evaluated as Ancestry Informative Region (AIR) by typing rs1426654 together with two additional intragenic markers (rs2555364 and rs16960620) in 471 unrelated individuals originating from three different continents (Africa, Asia and Europe). This study further supports the role of human SLC24A5 gene in skin pigmentation suggesting that variations in SLC24A5 haplotypes can correlate with human migration and ancestry. Furthermore, our data do reveal the utility of haplotype and combined unphased genotype analysis of SLC24A5 in predicting ancestry and provide a good example of usefulness of genetic characterization of larger regions, in addition to single polymorphisms, as candidates for population-specific sweeps in the ancestral population. PMID:19440451

Fight for your breeding right: hierarchy re-establishment predicts aggression in a social queue

PubMed Central

Wong, Marian; Balshine, Sigal

2011-01-01

Social aggression is one of the most conspicuous features of animal societies, yet little is known about the causes of individual variation in aggression within social hierarchies. Recent theory suggests that when individuals form queues for breeding, variation in social aggression by non-breeding group members is related to their probability of inheriting breeding status. However, levels of aggression could also vary as a temporary response to changes in the hierarchy, with individuals becoming more aggressive as they ascend in rank, in order to re-establish dominance relationships. Using the group-living fish, Neolamprologus pulcher, we show that subordinates became more aggressive after they ascended in rank. Female ascenders exhibited more rapid increases in aggression than males, and the increased aggression was primarily directed towards group members of adjacent rather than non-adjacent rank, suggesting that social aggression was related to conflict over rank. Elevated aggression by ascenders was not sustained over time, there was no relationship between rank and aggression in stable groups, and aggression given by ascenders was not sex-biased. Together, these results suggest that the need to re-establish dominance relationships following rank ascension is an important determinant of variation in aggression in animal societies. PMID:20880857

Fight for your breeding right: hierarchy re-establishment predicts aggression in a social queue.

PubMed

Wong, Marian; Balshine, Sigal

2011-04-23

Social aggression is one of the most conspicuous features of animal societies, yet little is known about the causes of individual variation in aggression within social hierarchies. Recent theory suggests that when individuals form queues for breeding, variation in social aggression by non-breeding group members is related to their probability of inheriting breeding status. However, levels of aggression could also vary as a temporary response to changes in the hierarchy, with individuals becoming more aggressive as they ascend in rank, in order to re-establish dominance relationships. Using the group-living fish, Neolamprologus pulcher, we show that subordinates became more aggressive after they ascended in rank. Female ascenders exhibited more rapid increases in aggression than males, and the increased aggression was primarily directed towards group members of adjacent rather than non-adjacent rank, suggesting that social aggression was related to conflict over rank. Elevated aggression by ascenders was not sustained over time, there was no relationship between rank and aggression in stable groups, and aggression given by ascenders was not sex-biased. Together, these results suggest that the need to re-establish dominance relationships following rank ascension is an important determinant of variation in aggression in animal societies.

Ignorance Is No Excuse: Moral Judgments Are Influenced by a Genetic Variation on the Oxytocin Receptor Gene

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walter, Nora T.; Montag, Christian; Markett, Sebastian; Felten, Andrea; Voigt, Gesine; Reuter, Martin

2012-01-01

Perspective-taking has become a main focus of studies on moral judgments. Recent fMRI studies have demonstrated that individual differences in brain activation predict moral decision making. In particular, pharmacological studies highlighted the crucial role for the neuropeptide oxytocin in social behavior and emotional perception. In the present…

The role of territory settlement, individual quality, and nesting initiation on productivity of Bell's vireos

Treesearch

Cara J. Joos; Frank R., III Thompson; John Faaborg

2014-01-01

Variation in habitat quality among territories within a heterogeneous patch should influence reproductive success of territory owners. Further, territory settlement order following an ideal despotic distribution (IDD) should predict the fitness of occupants if territory selection is adaptive. We recorded settlement order and monitored nests in territories occupied by...

Comparison of three models predicting developmental milestones given environmental and individual variation

Treesearch

Estella Gilbert; James A. Powell; Jesse A. Logan; Barbara J. Bentz

2004-01-01

In all organisms, phenotypic variability is an evolutionary stipulation. Because the development of poikilothermic organisms depends directly on the temperature of their habitat, environmental variability is also an integral factor in models of their phenology. In this paper we present two existing phenology models, the distributed delay model and the Sharpe and...

Validity of a Test of Children's Suggestibility for Predicting Responses to Two Interview Situations Differing in Their Degree of Suggestiveness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finnila, Katarina; Mahlberg, Nina; Santtila, Pekka; Sandnabba, Kenneth; Niemi, Pekka

2003-01-01

Examined the relative contributions of internal and external sources of variation in children's suggestibility in interrogative situations. Found that internal sources of individual differences in suggestibility measured on a suggestibility test did influence children's answers during an interview, but that external sources or interview styles had…

Variants at serotonin transporter and 2A receptor genes predict cooperative behavior differentially according to presence of punishment.

PubMed

Schroeder, Kari B; McElreath, Richard; Nettle, Daniel

2013-03-05

Punishment of free-riding has been implicated in the evolution of cooperation in humans, and yet mechanisms for punishment avoidance remain largely uninvestigated. Individual variation in these mechanisms may stem from variation in the serotonergic system, which modulates processing of aversive stimuli. Functional serotonin gene variants have been associated with variation in the processing of aversive stimuli and widely studied as risk factors for psychiatric disorders. We show that variants at the serotonin transporter gene (SLC6A4) and serotonin 2A receptor gene (HTR2A) predict contributions to the public good in economic games, dependent upon whether contribution behavior can be punished. Participants with a variant at the serotonin transporter gene contribute more, leading to group-level differences in cooperation, but this effect dissipates in the presence of punishment. When contribution behavior can be punished, those with a variant at the serotonin 2A receptor gene contribute more than those without it. This variant also predicts a more stressful experience of the games. The diversity of institutions (including norms) that govern cooperation and punishment may create selective pressures for punishment avoidance that change rapidly across time and space. Variant-specific epigenetic regulation of these genes, as well as population-level variation in the frequencies of these variants, may facilitate adaptation to local norms of cooperation and punishment.

Variants at serotonin transporter and 2A receptor genes predict cooperative behavior differentially according to presence of punishment

PubMed Central

Schroeder, Kari B.; McElreath, Richard; Nettle, Daniel

2013-01-01

Punishment of free-riding has been implicated in the evolution of cooperation in humans, and yet mechanisms for punishment avoidance remain largely uninvestigated. Individual variation in these mechanisms may stem from variation in the serotonergic system, which modulates processing of aversive stimuli. Functional serotonin gene variants have been associated with variation in the processing of aversive stimuli and widely studied as risk factors for psychiatric disorders. We show that variants at the serotonin transporter gene (SLC6A4) and serotonin 2A receptor gene (HTR2A) predict contributions to the public good in economic games, dependent upon whether contribution behavior can be punished. Participants with a variant at the serotonin transporter gene contribute more, leading to group-level differences in cooperation, but this effect dissipates in the presence of punishment. When contribution behavior can be punished, those with a variant at the serotonin 2A receptor gene contribute more than those without it. This variant also predicts a more stressful experience of the games. The diversity of institutions (including norms) that govern cooperation and punishment may create selective pressures for punishment avoidance that change rapidly across time and space. Variant-specific epigenetic regulation of these genes, as well as population-level variation in the frequencies of these variants, may facilitate adaptation to local norms of cooperation and punishment. PMID:23431136

Variation in mangrove forest structure and sediment characteristics in Bocas del Toro, Panama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelock, C.E.; Feller, Ilka C.; McKee, K.L.; Thompson, R.

2005-01-01

Mangrove forest structure and sediment characteristics were examined in the extensive mangroves of Bocas del Toro, Republic of Panama. Forest structure was characterized to determine if spatial vegetation patterns were repeated over the Bocas del Toro landscape. Using a series of permanent plots and transects we found that the forests of Bocas del Toro were dominated by Rhizophora mangle with very few individuals of Avicennia germinans and Laguncularia racemosa. Despite this low species diversity, there was large variation in forest structure and in edaphic conditions (salinity, concentration of available phosphorus, Eh and sulphide concentration). Aboveground biomass varied 20-fold, from 6.8 Mg ha-1 in dwarf forests to 194.3 Mg ha-1 in the forests fringing the land. But variation in forest structure was predictable across the intertidal zone. There was a strong tree height gradient from seaward fringe (mean tree height 3.9 m), decreasing in stature in the interior dwarf forests (mean tree height 0.7 m), and increasing in stature in forests adjacent to the terrestrial forest (mean tree height 4.1 m). The predictable variation in forest structure emerges due to the complex interactions among edaphic and plant factors. Identifying predictable patterns in forest structure will aid in scaling up the ecosystem services provided by mangrove forests in coastal landscapes. Copyright 2005 College of Arts and Sciences.

Predictive genomics DNA profiling for athletic performance.

PubMed

Kambouris, Marios; Ntalouka, Foteini; Ziogas, Georgios; Maffulli, Nicola

2012-12-01

Genes control biological processes such as muscle, cartilage and bone formation, muscle energy production and metabolism (mitochondriogenesis, lactic acid removal), blood and tissue oxygenation (erythropoiesis, angiogenesis, vasodilatation), all essential in sport and athletic performance. DNA sequence variations in such genes confer genetic advantages that can be exploited, or genetic 'barriers' that could be overcome to achieve optimal athletic performance. Predictive Genomic DNA Profiling for athletic performance reveals genetic variations that may be associated with better suitability for endurance, strength and speed sports, vulnerability to sports-related injuries and individualized nutritional requirements. Knowledge of genetic 'suitability' in respect to endurance capacity or strength and speed would lead to appropriate sport and athletic activity selection. Knowledge of genetic advantages and barriers would 'direct' an individualized training program, nutritional plan and nutritional supplementation to achieving optimal performance, overcoming 'barriers' that results from intense exercise and pressure under competition with minimum waste of time and energy and avoidance of health risks (hypertension, cardiovascular disease, inflammation, and musculoskeletal injuries) related to exercise, training and competition. Predictive Genomics DNA profiling for Athletics and Sports performance is developing into a tool for athletic activity and sport selection and for the formulation of individualized and personalized training and nutritional programs to optimize health and performance for the athlete. Human DNA sequences are patentable in some countries, while in others DNA testing methodologies [unless proprietary], are non patentable. On the other hand, gene and variant selection, genotype interpretation and the risk and suitability assigning algorithms based on the specific Genomic variants used are amenable to patent protection.

Variability of prediction of maximal oxygen concumption on the cycle ergometer using standard equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenisen, Michael C.; Fortney, Suzanne M.; Lee, Stuart M. C.; Moore, Alan D.; Barrows, Linda H.

1993-01-01

Several investigations within the Exercise Countermeasures Project at the NASA Johnson Space Center focused on the assessment of maximum oxygen consumption (VO2(sub max)) within the Astronaut Corps pre- and postspace flight. Investigations during the Apollo era suggested that there was a significant decrease in postflight VO2(sub max) when compared to preflight values, and current studies have documented that this trend continues in the Space Shuttle era. It is generally accepted and was confirmed in our laboratory that VO2(sub max) can be predicted from submaximal measures taken during graded exercise tests on the cycle ergometer with respect to populations. However, previous work had not examined the effect of day-to-day variations in the physiologic responses that might alter these predictions for individuals. Stability of individual submaximal data over serial tests is important so that predicted changes in VO2(sub max) are reflective of actual VO2(sub max) changes. Therefore, the purpose of this investigation was to determine which of the accepted equations to predict VO2(sub max) would be less affected by normal daily physiologic changes.

Juvenile survival in a tropical population of roseate terns: Interannual variation and effect of tick parasitism

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monticelli, David; Ramos, Jaime A.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Spendelow, Jeffrey A.

2008-01-01

Many demographic studies on long-lived seabirds have focused on the estimation of adult survival, but much less is known about survival during the early years of life, especially in tropical species. We report analyses of a capture–recapture dataset of 685 roseate terns ringed as fledglings and adults between 1998 and 2005 on Aride Island, Seychelles, and recaptured/resighted at the same colony site over a 5 yr (2002 to 2006) period. A multistate model was used to estimate survival for different age classes, including juvenile (first-year) birds returning as non-breeding prospectors. The effect of infestation by parasites (ticks) on survival was also examined. Overall, the estimated return of first-year individuals to the natal colony was very variable, ranging from 2 to 22%. Conditioned on survival, the probability of returning from Age 2 yr onwards increased to 70%. Survival rates were best modeled as time-specific, with estimates varying from 0.02 to 1.00 (mean 0.69) in first-year birds with a marked negative effect of tick infestation. In older birds (minimum age of 2 yr), the annual estimates fell between 0.69 and 0.86 (mean 0.77). Using a components of variance approach for estimation of year-to-year variation, we found high temporal variability for first-year individuals (coefficient of variation [CV] = 65%) compared to much less variation in the survival rate of older birds (CV = 9%). These findings agree with the life-history prediction that demographic rates of juveniles are usually lower and more variable than those of older individuals. Our results are also consistent with the predicted negative effect of tick parasitism on juvenile survival. Compared with data from other roseate tern populations, survival over the first 2 yr (Age 0 to 2 yr) was 18 to 40% higher in this study, suggesting that a high ‘young’ survival rate may be an important demographic trait in this tropical population to compensate for the low annual reproductive success. Our data show that estimating survival of young individuals may be crucial to elucidating the demographic tactics of seabirds.

Genetic variation in adaptability and pleiotropy in budding yeast

PubMed Central

Mitchell, James Kameron; Bloom, Joshua S; Kruglyak, Leonid

2017-01-01

Evolution can favor organisms that are more adaptable, provided that genetic variation in adaptability exists. Here, we quantify this variation among 230 offspring of a cross between diverged yeast strains. We measure the adaptability of each offspring genotype, defined as its average rate of adaptation in a specific environmental condition, and analyze the heritability, predictability, and genetic basis of this trait. We find that initial genotype strongly affects adaptability and can alter the genetic basis of future evolution. Initial genotype also affects the pleiotropic consequences of adaptation for fitness in a different environment. This genetic variation in adaptability and pleiotropy is largely determined by initial fitness, according to a rule of declining adaptability with increasing initial fitness, but several individual QTLs also have a significant idiosyncratic role. Our results demonstrate that both adaptability and pleiotropy are complex traits, with extensive heritable differences arising from naturally occurring variation. PMID:28826486

Genetic variation in adaptability and pleiotropy in budding yeast.

PubMed

Jerison, Elizabeth R; Kryazhimskiy, Sergey; Mitchell, James Kameron; Bloom, Joshua S; Kruglyak, Leonid; Desai, Michael M

2017-08-17

Evolution can favor organisms that are more adaptable, provided that genetic variation in adaptability exists. Here, we quantify this variation among 230 offspring of a cross between diverged yeast strains. We measure the adaptability of each offspring genotype, defined as its average rate of adaptation in a specific environmental condition, and analyze the heritability, predictability, and genetic basis of this trait. We find that initial genotype strongly affects adaptability and can alter the genetic basis of future evolution. Initial genotype also affects the pleiotropic consequences of adaptation for fitness in a different environment. This genetic variation in adaptability and pleiotropy is largely determined by initial fitness, according to a rule of declining adaptability with increasing initial fitness, but several individual QTLs also have a significant idiosyncratic role. Our results demonstrate that both adaptability and pleiotropy are complex traits, with extensive heritable differences arising from naturally occurring variation.

What shall I do now? State-dependent variations of life-history traits with aging in Wandering Albatrosses.

PubMed

Pardo, Deborah; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2014-02-01

Allocation decisions depend on an organism's condition which can change with age. Two opposite changes in life-history traits are predicted in the presence of senescence: either an increase in breeding performance in late age associated with terminal investment or a decrease due to either life-history trade-offs between current breeding and future survival or decreased efficiency at old age. Age variation in several life-history traits has been detected in a number of species, and demographic performances of individuals in a given year are influenced by their reproductive state the previous year. Few studies have, however, examined state-dependent variation in life-history traits with aging, and they focused mainly on a dichotomy of successful versus failed breeding and non-breeding birds. Using a 50-year dataset on the long-lived quasi-biennial breeding wandering albatross, we investigated variations in life-history traits with aging according to a gradient of states corresponding to potential costs of reproduction the previous year (in ascending order): non-breeding birds staying at sea or present at breeding grounds, breeding birds that failed early, late or were successful. We used multistate models to study survival and decompose reproduction into four components (probabilities of return, breeding, hatching, and fledging), while accounting for imperfect detection. Our results suggest the possible existence of two strategies in the population: strict biennial breeders that exhibited almost no reproductive senescence and quasi-biennial breeders that showed an increased breeding frequency with a strong and moderate senescence on hatching and fledging probabilities, respectively. The patterns observed on survival were contrary to our predictions, suggesting an influence of individual quality rather than trade-offs between reproduction and survival at late ages. This work represents a step further into understanding the evolutionary ecology of senescence and its relationship with costs of reproduction at the population level. It paves the way for individual-based studies that could show the importance of intra-population heterogeneity in those processes.

High variation of individual soluble serum CD30 levels of pre-transplantation patients: sCD30 a feasible marker for prediction of kidney allograft rejection?

PubMed

Altermann, Wolfgang; Schlaf, Gerald; Rothhoff, Anita; Seliger, Barbara

2007-10-01

Previous studies have suggested that the pre-transplant levels of the soluble CD30 molecule (sCD30) represent a non-invasive tool which can be used as a biomarker for the prediction of kidney allograft rejections. In order to evaluate the feasibility of sCD30 for pre-transplantation monitoring the sera of potential kidney recipients (n = 652) were collected four times in a 3 months interval. Serum from healthy blood donors (n = 203) served as controls. The sCD30 concentrations of all samples were determined using a commercially available ELISA. This strategy allowed the detection of possible variations of individual sCD30 levels over time. Heterogeneous sCD30 concentrations were found in the samples obtained from individual putative kidney transplant recipients when quarterly measured over 1 year. Total 95% of serum samples obtained from healthy controls exhibited sCD30 values <30 U/ml, whereas most recipients displayed higher serum levels (>30 U/ml). Total 524 patients (80.4%) constantly exhibited serum concentrations of <100 U/ml during the period investigated, whereas 109 patients (16.7%) showed variations by exceeding the proposed 'cut off' of 100 U/ml for one to three times. The frequency of samples exhibiting sCD30 values >100 U/ml was significantly lower than that previously reported. The high degree of variation does not allow the stratification of patients into high and low immunological risk groups based on a single sCD30 value > 100 U/ml. Due to the heterogeneity of sCD30 levels during time course and the high values of SD, its implementation as a pre-transplant marker cannot be justified to generate special provisions for the organ allocation to patients with single sCD30 values > 100 U/ml.

Movement is the glue connecting home ranges and habitat selection.

PubMed

Van Moorter, Bram; Rolandsen, Christer M; Basille, Mathieu; Gaillard, Jean-Michel

2016-01-01

Animal space use has been studied by focusing either on geographic (e.g. home ranges, species' distribution) or on environmental (e.g. habitat use and selection) space. However, all patterns of space use emerge from individual movements, which are the primary means by which animals change their environment. Individuals increase their use of a given area by adjusting two key movement components: the duration of their visit and/or the frequency of revisits. Thus, in spatially heterogeneous environments, animals exploit known, high-quality resource areas by increasing their residence time (RT) in and/or decreasing their time to return (TtoR) to these areas. We expected that spatial variation in these two movement properties should lead to observed patterns of space use in both geographic and environmental spaces. We derived a set of nine predictions linking spatial distribution of movement properties to emerging space-use patterns. We predicted that, at a given scale, high variation in RT and TtoR among habitats leads to strong habitat selection and that long RT and short TtoR result in a small home range size. We tested these predictions using moose (Alces alces) GPS tracking data. We first modelled the relationship between landscape characteristics and movement properties. Then, we investigated how the spatial distribution of predicted movement properties (i.e. spatial autocorrelation, mean, and variance of RT and TtoR) influences home range size and hierarchical habitat selection. In landscapes with high spatial autocorrelation of RT and TtoR, a high variation in both RT and TtoR occurred in home ranges. As expected, home range location was highly selective in such landscapes (i.e. second-order habitat selection); RT was higher and TtoR lower within the selected home range than outside, and moose home ranges were small. Within home ranges, a higher variation in both RT and TtoR was associated with higher selectivity among habitat types (i.e. third-order habitat selection). Our findings show how patterns of geographic and environmental space use correspond to the two sides of a coin, linked by movement responses of individuals to environmental heterogeneity. By demonstrating the potential to assess the consequences of altering RT or TtoR (e.g. through human disturbance or climatic changes) on home range size and habitat selection, our work sets the basis for new theoretical and methodological advances in movement ecology. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

How well does the standard body mass index or variations with a different exponent predict human lifespan?

PubMed

Foster, Dean; Karloff, Howard; Shirley, Kenneth E

2016-02-01

The objective was twofold: (1) to estimate for each individual the body mass index (BMI) which is associated with the lowest risk of death, and (2) to study variants of the BMI formula to determine which gives the best predictions of death. Treating BMI = mass/height(2) as a continuous variable and estimating its interaction effects with several other variables, this study analyzed the NIH-AARP study data set of approximately 566,000 individuals and fit Cox proportional hazards models to the survival times. For each individual, a "personalized optimal BMI," the BMI for that individual which, according to the model, is associated with the lowest risk of death, is estimated. The average personalized optimal BMI is approximately 26, which is in the current "overweight" category. In fact, mass/height is a better predictor of death on the data set than BMI itself. The model suggests that an individual's "optimal" BMI depends on his or her features; "one-size-fits-all" recommendations may be not best. © 2016 The Obesity Society.

Estimating Time-Varying PCB Exposures Using Person-Specific Predictions to Supplement Measured Values: A Comparison of Observed and Predicted Values in Two Cohorts of Norwegian Women

PubMed Central

Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Breivik, Knut; Wania, Frank; Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

2015-01-01

Background Studies on the health effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) call for an understanding of past and present human exposure. Time-resolved mechanistic models may supplement information on concentrations in individuals obtained from measurements and/or statistical approaches if they can be shown to reproduce empirical data. Objectives Here, we evaluated the capability of one such mechanistic model to reproduce measured PCB concentrations in individual Norwegian women. We also assessed individual life-course concentrations. Methods Concentrations of four PCB congeners in pregnant (n = 310, sampled in 2007–2009) and postmenopausal (n = 244, 2005) women were compared with person-specific predictions obtained using CoZMoMAN, an emission-based environmental fate and human food-chain bioaccumulation model. Person-specific predictions were also made using statistical regression models including dietary and lifestyle variables and concentrations. Results CoZMoMAN accurately reproduced medians and ranges of measured concentrations in the two study groups. Furthermore, rank correlations between measurements and predictions from both CoZMoMAN and regression analyses were strong (Spearman’s r > 0.67). Precision in quartile assignments from predictions was strong overall as evaluated by weighted Cohen’s kappa (> 0.6). Simulations indicated large inter-individual differences in concentrations experienced in the past. Conclusions The mechanistic model reproduced all measurements of PCB concentrations within a factor of 10, and subject ranking and quartile assignments were overall largely consistent, although they were weak within each study group. Contamination histories for individuals predicted by CoZMoMAN revealed variation between study subjects, particularly in the timing of peak concentrations. Mechanistic models can provide individual PCB exposure metrics that could serve as valuable supplements to measurements. Citation Nøst TH, Breivik K, Wania F, Rylander C, Odland JØ, Sandanger TM. 2016. Estimating time-varying PCB exposures using person-specific predictions to supplement measured values: a comparison of observed and predicted values in two cohorts of Norwegian women. Environ Health Perspect 124:299–305; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409191 PMID:26186800

Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales.

PubMed

Pepin, Kim M; Kay, Shannon L; Golas, Ben D; Shriner, Susan S; Gilbert, Amy T; Miller, Ryan S; Graham, Andrea L; Riley, Steven; Cross, Paul C; Samuel, Michael D; Hooten, Mevin B; Hoeting, Jennifer A; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Webb, Colleen T; Buhnerkempe, Michael G

2017-03-01

Our ability to infer unobservable disease-dynamic processes such as force of infection (infection hazard for susceptible hosts) has transformed our understanding of disease transmission mechanisms and capacity to predict disease dynamics. Conventional methods for inferring FOI estimate a time-averaged value and are based on population-level processes. Because many pathogens exhibit epidemic cycling and FOI is the result of processes acting across the scales of individuals and populations, a flexible framework that extends to epidemic dynamics and links within-host processes to FOI is needed. Specifically, within-host antibody kinetics in wildlife hosts can be short-lived and produce patterns that are repeatable across individuals, suggesting individual-level antibody concentrations could be used to infer time since infection and hence FOI. Using simulations and case studies (influenza A in lesser snow geese and Yersinia pestis in coyotes), we argue that with careful experimental and surveillance design, the population-level FOI signal can be recovered from individual-level antibody kinetics, despite substantial individual-level variation. In addition to improving inference, the cross-scale quantitative antibody approach we describe can reveal insights into drivers of individual-based variation in disease response, and the role of poorly understood processes such as secondary infections, in population-level dynamics of disease. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pepin, Kim M.; Kay, Shannon L.; Golas, Ben D.; Shriner, Susan A.; Gilbert, Amy T.; Miller, Ryan S.; Graham, Andrea L.; Riley, Steven; Cross, Paul C.; Samuel, Michael D.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Webb, Colleen T.; Buhnerkempe, Michael G.

2017-01-01

Our ability to infer unobservable disease-dynamic processes such as force of infection (infection hazard for susceptible hosts) has transformed our understanding of disease transmission mechanisms and capacity to predict disease dynamics. Conventional methods for inferring FOI estimate a time-averaged value and are based on population-level processes. Because many pathogens exhibit epidemic cycling and FOI is the result of processes acting across the scales of individuals and populations, a flexible framework that extends to epidemic dynamics and links within-host processes to FOI is needed. Specifically, within-host antibody kinetics in wildlife hosts can be short-lived and produce patterns that are repeatable across individuals, suggesting individual-level antibody concentrations could be used to infer time since infection and hence FOI. Using simulations and case studies (influenza A in lesser snow geese and Yersinia pestis in coyotes), we argue that with careful experimental and surveillance design, the population-level FOI signal can be recovered from individual-level antibody kinetics, despite substantial individual-level variation. In addition to improving inference, the cross-scale quantitative antibody approach we describe can reveal insights into drivers of individual-based variation in disease response, and the role of poorly understood processes such as secondary infections, in population-level dynamics of disease.

Circadian Macronutrients Variations over the First 7 Weeks of Human Milk Feeding of Preterm Infants.

PubMed

Moran-Lev, Hadar; Mimouni, Francis B; Ovental, Amit; Mangel, Laurence; Mandel, Dror; Lubetzky, Ronit

2015-09-01

Little is known about circadian variations of macronutrients content of expressed preterm human milk (HM). This study evaluated diurnal variations of macronutrients and energy content of preterm HM over the first 7 weeks of lactation and tested the hypothesis that values obtained during a morning sample are predictive of those obtained from an evening sample. Expressed HM was obtained from 32 mothers of preterm infants (26-33 weeks in gestational age), who routinely expressed all their milk every 3 hours from the beginning of the second to the seventh week after delivery. One aliquot was obtained from the first morning expression and the second from the evening expression. Energy and macronutrients contents were measured using an HM analyzer. Mean fat and energy contents of all samples obtained during the whole period were significantly higher in evening samples (p < 0.0001). There were no significant differences between morning and evening carbohydrates and protein contents. Concentrations of protein, carbohydrates, and fat from morning samples were predictive of evening concentrations to different extents (R(2) = 0.720, R(2) = 0.663, and R(2) = 0.20, respectively; p < 0.02). The predictability of evening values by morning values was not influenced by the week of lactation at sampling or by individual patients. In repeated-measures analysis of variance performed on 11 patients who completed the whole 7-week period, over time, there was a significant decrease in fat, energy, and protein contents, whereas carbohydrates content remained unchanged. Day-night differences remained significant only for fat content. Circadian variations in fat and energy concentrations of HM are consistent over the first 7 weeks of lactation. There are no consistent circadian variations in HM protein and carbohydrates. Over a given day, there are little variations in protein and carbohydrates content, but fat concentrations are more variable, and evening values are less well predicted by morning sample analysis than values for protein or carbohydrates.

Predicting research use in nursing organizations: a multilevel analysis.

PubMed

Estabrooks, Carole A; Midodzi, William K; Cummings, Greta G; Wallin, Lars

2007-01-01

No empirical literature was found that explained how organizational context (operationalized as a composite of leadership, culture, and evaluation) influences research utilization. Similarly, no work was found on the interaction of individuals and contextual factors, or the relative importance or contribution of forces at different organizational levels to either such proposed interactions or, ultimately, to research utilization. To determine independent factors that predict research utilization among nurses, taking into account influences at individual nurse, specialty, and hospital levels. Cross-sectional survey data for 4,421 registered nurses in Alberta, Canada were used in a series of multilevel (three levels) modeling analyses to predict research utilization. A multilevel model was developed in MLwiN version 2.0 and used to: (a) estimate simultaneous effects of several predictors and (b) quantify the amount of explained variance in research utilization that could be apportioned to individual, specialty, and hospital levels. There was significant variation in research utilization (p <.05). Factors (remaining in the final model at statistically significant levels) found to predict more research utilization at the three levels of analysis were as follows. At the individual nurse level (Level 1): time spent on the Internet and lower levels of emotional exhaustion. At the specialty level (Level 2): facilitation, nurse-to-nurse collaboration, a higher context (i.e., of nursing culture, leadership, and evaluation), and perceived ability to control policy. At the hospital level (Level 3): only hospital size was significant in the final model. The total variance in research utilization was 1.04, and the intraclass correlations (the percent contribution by contextual factors) were 4% (variance = 0.04, p <.01) at the hospital level and 8% (variance = 0.09, p <.05) at the specialty level. The contribution attributable to individual factors alone was 87% (variance = 0.91, p <.01). Variation in research utilization was explained mainly by differences in individual characteristics, with specialty- and organizational-level factors contributing relatively little by comparison. Among hospital-level factors, hospital size was the only significant determinant of research utilization. Although organizational determinants explained less variance in the model, they were still statistically significant when analyzed alone. These findings suggest that investigations into mechanisms that influence research utilization must address influences at multiple levels of the organization. Such investigations will require careful attention to both methodological and interpretative challenges present when dealing with multiple units of analysis.

Characterizing behavioural ‘characters’: an evolutionary framework

PubMed Central

Araya-Ajoy, Yimen G.; Dingemanse, Niels J.

2014-01-01

Biologists often study phenotypic evolution assuming that phenotypes consist of a set of quasi-independent units that have been shaped by selection to accomplish a particular function. In the evolutionary literature, such quasi-independent functional units are called ‘evolutionary characters’, and a framework based on evolutionary principles has been developed to characterize them. This framework mainly focuses on ‘fixed’ characters, i.e. those that vary exclusively between individuals. In this paper, we introduce multi-level variation and thereby expand the framework to labile characters, focusing on behaviour as a worked example. We first propose a concept of ‘behavioural characters’ based on the original evolutionary character concept. We then detail how integration of variation between individuals (cf. ‘personality’) and within individuals (cf. ‘individual plasticity’) into the framework gives rise to a whole suite of novel testable predictions about the evolutionary character concept. We further propose a corresponding statistical methodology to test whether observed behaviours should be considered expressions of a hypothesized evolutionary character. We illustrate the application of our framework by characterizing the behavioural character ‘aggressiveness’ in wild great tits, Parus major. PMID:24335984

The Drosophila foraging gene human orthologue PRKG1 predicts individual differences in the effects of early adversity on maternal sensitivity.

PubMed

Sokolowski, H Moriah; Vasquez, Oscar E; Unternaehrer, Eva; Sokolowski, Dustin J; Biergans, Stephanie D; Atkinson, Leslie; Gonzalez, Andrea; Silveira, Patricia P; Levitan, Robert; O'Donnell, Kieran J; Steiner, Meir; Kennedy, James; Meaney, Michael J; Fleming, Alison S; Sokolowski, Marla B

2017-04-01

There is variation in the extent to which childhood adverse experience affects adult individual differences in maternal behavior. Genetic variation in the animal foraging gene, which encodes a cGMP-dependent protein kinase, contributes to variation in the responses of adult fruit flies, Drosophila melanogaster , to early life adversity and is also known to play a role in maternal behavior in social insects. Here we investigate genetic variation in the human foraging gene ( PRKG1 ) as a predictor of individual differences in the effects of early adversity on maternal behavior in two cohorts. We show that the PRKG1 genetic polymorphism rs2043556 associates with maternal sensitivity towards their infants. We also show that rs2043556 moderates the association between self-reported childhood adversity of the mother and her later maternal sensitivity. Mothers with the TT allele of rs2043556 appeared buffered from the effects of early adversity, whereas mothers with the presence of a C allele were not. Our study used the Toronto Longitudinal Cohort (N=288 mother-16 month old infant pairs) and the Maternal Adversity and Vulnerability and Neurodevelopment Cohort (N=281 mother-18 month old infant pairs). Our findings expand the literature on the contributions of both genetics and gene-environment interactions to maternal sensitivity, a salient feature of the early environment relevant for child neurodevelopment.

On The (Un)importance of Working Memory in Speech-in-Noise Processing for Listeners with Normal Hearing Thresholds.

PubMed

Füllgrabe, Christian; Rosen, Stuart

2016-01-01

With the advent of cognitive hearing science, increased attention has been given to individual differences in cognitive functioning and their explanatory power in accounting for inter-listener variability in the processing of speech in noise (SiN). The psychological construct that has received much interest in recent years is working memory. Empirical evidence indeed confirms the association between WM capacity (WMC) and SiN identification in older hearing-impaired listeners. However, some theoretical models propose that variations in WMC are an important predictor for variations in speech processing abilities in adverse perceptual conditions for all listeners, and this notion has become widely accepted within the field. To assess whether WMC also plays a role when listeners without hearing loss process speech in adverse listening conditions, we surveyed published and unpublished studies in which the Reading-Span test (a widely used measure of WMC) was administered in conjunction with a measure of SiN identification, using sentence material routinely used in audiological and hearing research. A meta-analysis revealed that, for young listeners with audiometrically normal hearing, individual variations in WMC are estimated to account for, on average, less than 2% of the variance in SiN identification scores. This result cautions against the (intuitively appealing) assumption that individual variations in WMC are predictive of SiN identification independently of the age and hearing status of the listener.

Schooling and variation in the COMT gene: The devil is in the details

PubMed Central

Campbell, Daniel; Bick, Johanna; Yrigollen, Carolyn M.; Lee, Maria; Joseph, Antony; Chang, Joseph T.; Grigorenko, Elena L.

2013-01-01

Background Schooling is considered to be one of the major contributors to the development of intelligence within societies and individuals. Genetic variation might modulate the impact of schooling and explain, at least partially, the presence of individual differences in classrooms. Method We studied a sample of 1502 children (mean age = 11.7 years) from Zambia. Approximately 57% of these children were enrolled in school, and the rest were not. To quantify genetic variation, we investigated a number of common polymorphisms in the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) gene that controls the production of the protein thought to account for >60% of the dopamine degradation in the prefrontal cortex. Results Haplotype analyses generated results ranging from the presence to absence of significant interactions between a number of COMT haplotypes and indicators of schooling (i.e., in- vs. out-of-school and grade completed) in the prediction of nonverbal intelligence, depending on the parameter specification. However, an investigation of the distribution of corresponding p-values suggested that these positive results were false. Conclusions Convincing evidence that the variation in the COMT gene is associated with individual differences in nonverbal intelligence either directly or through interactions with schooling was not found. P-values produced by the method of testing for haplotype effects employed here may be sensitive to parameter settings, invalid under default settings, and should be checked for validity through simulation. PMID:23952646

Individual differences in normal body temperature: longitudinal big data analysis of patient records

PubMed Central

Samra, Jasmeet K; Mullainathan, Sendhil

2017-01-01

Abstract Objective To estimate individual level body temperature and to correlate it with other measures of physiology and health. Design Observational cohort study. Setting Outpatient clinics of a large academic hospital, 2009-14. Participants 35 488 patients who neither received a diagnosis for infections nor were prescribed antibiotics, in whom temperature was expected to be within normal limits. Main outcome measures Baseline temperatures at individual level, estimated using random effects regression and controlling for ambient conditions at the time of measurement, body site, and time factors. Baseline temperatures were correlated with demographics, medical comorbidities, vital signs, and subsequent one year mortality. Results In a diverse cohort of 35 488 patients (mean age 52.9 years, 64% women, 41% non-white race) with 243 506 temperature measurements, mean temperature was 36.6°C (95% range 35.7-37.3°C, 99% range 35.3-37.7°C). Several demographic factors were linked to individual level temperature, with older people the coolest (–0.021°C for every decade, P<0.001) and African-American women the hottest (versus white men: 0.052°C, P<0.001). Several comorbidities were linked to lower temperature (eg, hypothyroidism: –0.013°C, P=0.01) or higher temperature (eg, cancer: 0.020, P<0.001), as were physiological measurements (eg, body mass index: 0.002 per m/kg2, P<0.001). Overall, measured factors collectively explained only 8.2% of individual temperature variation. Despite this, unexplained temperature variation was a significant predictor of subsequent mortality: controlling for all measured factors, an increase of 0.149°C (1 SD of individual temperature in the data) was linked to 8.4% higher one year mortality (P=0.014). Conclusions Individuals’ baseline temperatures showed meaningful variation that was not due solely to measurement error or environmental factors. Baseline temperatures correlated with demographics, comorbid conditions, and physiology, but these factors explained only a small part of individual temperature variation. Unexplained variation in baseline temperature, however, strongly predicted mortality. PMID:29237616

Free vibrations of thin-walled semicircular graphite-epoxy composite frames

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carden, Huey D.; Noor, Ahmed K.; Peters, Jeanne M.

1990-01-01

A detailed study is made of the effects of variations in lamination and material parameters of thin walled composite frames on their vibrational characteristics. The structures considered are semicircular thin walled frames with I and J sections. The flanges and webs of the frames are modeled by using 2-D shell and plate finite elements. A mixed formulation is used with the fundamental unknowns consisting of both the generalized displacements and stress resultants in the frame. The frequencies and modes predicted by the 2-D finite element model are compared with those obtained from experiments, as well as with the predictions of a non-dimensional thin walled beam finite element model. A detailed study is made of the sensitivity of the vibrational response to variations in the fiber orientation, material properties of the individual layers, and boundary conditions.

Free vibrations of thin-walled semicircular graphite-epoxy composite frames

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K.; Carden, Huey D.; Peters, Jeanne M.

1990-01-01

A detailed study is made of the effects of variations in lamination and material parameters of thin walled composite frames on their vibrational characteristics. The structures considered are semicircular thin walled frames with I and J sections. The flanges and webs of the frames are modelled by using 2-D shell and plate finite elements. A mixed formulation is used with the fundamental unknowns consisting of both the generalized displacements and stress resultants in the frames. The frequencies and modes predicted by the 2-D finite element model are compared with those obtained from experiments, as well as with the predictions of a 1-D thin walled beam finite element model. A detailed study is made of the sensitivity of the vibrational response to variations in the fiber orientation, material properties of the individual layers, and boundary conditions.

Use of posterior predictive checks as an inferential tool for investigating individual heterogeneity in animal population vital rates

PubMed Central

Chambert, Thierry; Rotella, Jay J; Higgs, Megan D

2014-01-01

The investigation of individual heterogeneity in vital rates has recently received growing attention among population ecologists. Individual heterogeneity in wild animal populations has been accounted for and quantified by including individually varying effects in models for mark–recapture data, but the real need for underlying individual effects to account for observed levels of individual variation has recently been questioned by the work of Tuljapurkar et al. (Ecology Letters, 12, 93, 2009) on dynamic heterogeneity. Model-selection approaches based on information criteria or Bayes factors have been used to address this question. Here, we suggest that, in addition to model-selection, model-checking methods can provide additional important insights to tackle this issue, as they allow one to evaluate a model's misfit in terms of ecologically meaningful measures. Specifically, we propose the use of posterior predictive checks to explicitly assess discrepancies between a model and the data, and we explain how to incorporate model checking into the inferential process used to assess the practical implications of ignoring individual heterogeneity. Posterior predictive checking is a straightforward and flexible approach for performing model checks in a Bayesian framework that is based on comparisons of observed data to model-generated replications of the data, where parameter uncertainty is incorporated through use of the posterior distribution. If discrepancy measures are chosen carefully and are relevant to the scientific context, posterior predictive checks can provide important information allowing for more efficient model refinement. We illustrate this approach using analyses of vital rates with long-term mark–recapture data for Weddell seals and emphasize its utility for identifying shortfalls or successes of a model at representing a biological process or pattern of interest. We show how posterior predictive checks can be used to strengthen inferences in ecological studies. We demonstrate the application of this method on analyses dealing with the question of individual reproductive heterogeneity in a population of Antarctic pinnipeds. PMID:24834335

Monitoring interannual variation in global crop yield using long-term AVHRR and MODIS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaoyang; Zhang, Qingyuan

2016-04-01

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data have been extensively applied for crop yield prediction because of their daily temporal resolution and a global coverage. This study investigated global crop yield using daily two band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) derived from AVHRR (1981-1999) and MODIS (2000-2013) observations at a spatial resolution of 0.05° (∼5 km). Specifically, EVI2 temporal trajectory of crop growth was simulated using a hybrid piecewise logistic model (HPLM) for individual pixels, which was used to detect crop phenological metrics. The derived crop phenology was then applied to calculate crop greenness defined as EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration during annual crop growing seasons, which was further aggregated for croplands in each country, respectively. The interannual variations in EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration were combined to correlate to the variation in cereal yield from 1982-2012 for individual countries using a stepwise regression model, respectively. The results show that the confidence level of the established regression models was higher than 90% (P value < 0.1) in most countries in the northern hemisphere although it was relatively poor in the southern hemisphere (mainly in Africa). The error in the yield predication was relatively smaller in America, Europe and East Asia than that in Africa. In the 10 countries with largest cereal production across the world, the prediction error was less than 9% during past three decades. This suggests that crop phenology-controlled greenness from coarse resolution satellite data has the capability of predicting national crop yield across the world, which could provide timely and reliable crop information for global agricultural trade and policymakers.

Genotype-specific relationships among phosphorus use, growth and abundance in Daphnia pulicaria

PubMed Central

Chowdhury, Priyanka Roy; Baker, Kristina D.; Weider, Lawrence J.; Jeyasingh, Punidan D.

2017-01-01

The framework ecological stoichiometry uses elemental composition of species to make predictions about growth and competitive ability in defined elemental supply conditions. Although intraspecific differences in stoichiometry have been observed, we have yet to understand the mechanisms generating and maintaining such variation. We used variation in phosphorus (P) content within a Daphnia species to test the extent to which %P can explain variation in growth and competition. Further, we measured 33P kinetics (acquisition, assimilation, incorporation and retention) to understand the extent to which such variables improved predictions. Genotypes showed significant variation in P content, 33P kinetics and growth rate. P content alone was a poor predictor of growth rate and competitive ability. While most genotypes exhibited the typical growth penalty under P limitation, a few varied little in growth between P diets. These observations indicate that some genotypes can maintain growth under P-limited conditions by altering P use, suggesting that decomposing P content of an individual into physiological components of P kinetics will improve stoichiometric models. More generally, attention to the interplay between nutrient content and nutrient-use is required to make inferences regarding the success of genotypes in defined conditions of nutrient supply. PMID:29308224

Climate and local abundance in freshwater fishes

PubMed Central

Knouft, Jason H.; Anthony, Melissa M.

2016-01-01

Identifying factors regulating variation in numbers of individuals among populations across a species' distribution is a fundamental goal in ecology. A common prediction, often referred to as the abundant-centre hypothesis, suggests that abundance is highest near the centre of a species' range. However, because of the primary focus on the geographical position of a population, this framework provides little insight into the environmental factors regulating local abundance. While range-wide variation in population abundance associated with environmental conditions has been investigated in terrestrial species, the relationship between climate and local abundance in freshwater taxa across species' distributions is not well understood. We used GIS-based temperature and precipitation data to determine the relationships between climatic conditions and range-wide variation in local abundance for 19 species of North American freshwater fishes. Climate predicted a portion of the variation in local abundance among populations for 18 species. In addition, the relationship between climatic conditions and local abundance varied among species, which is expected as lineages partition the environment across geographical space. The influence of local habitat quality on species persistence is well documented; however, our results also indicate the importance of climate in regulating population sizes across a species geographical range, even in aquatic taxa. PMID:27429769

Personality, foraging behavior and specialization: integrating behavioral and food web ecology at the individual level.

PubMed

Toscano, Benjamin J; Gownaris, Natasha J; Heerhartz, Sarah M; Monaco, Cristián J

2016-09-01

Behavioral traits and diet were traditionally thought to be highly plastic within individuals. This view was espoused in the widespread use of optimality models, which broadly predict that individuals can modify behavioral traits and diet across ecological contexts to maximize fitness. Yet, research conducted over the past 15 years supports an alternative view; fundamental behavioral traits (e.g., activity level, exploration, sociability, boldness and aggressiveness) and diet often vary among individuals and this variation persists over time and across contexts. This phenomenon has been termed animal personality with regard to behavioral traits and individual specialization with regard to diet. While these aspects of individual-level phenotypic variation have been thus far studied in isolation, emerging evidence suggests that personality and individual specialization may covary, or even be causally related. Building on this work, we present the overarching hypothesis that animal personality can drive specialization through individual differences in various aspects of consumer foraging behavior. Specifically, we suggest pathways by which consumer personality traits influence foraging activity, risk-dependent foraging, roles in social foraging groups, spatial aspects of foraging and physiological drivers of foraging, which in turn can lead to consistent individual differences in food resource use. These pathways provide a basis for generating testable hypotheses directly linking animal personality to ecological dynamics, a major goal in contemporary behavioral ecology.

Quantifying patterns of change in marine ecosystem response to multiple pressures.

PubMed

Large, Scott I; Fay, Gavin; Friedland, Kevin D; Link, Jason S

2015-01-01

The ability to understand and ultimately predict ecosystem response to multiple pressures is paramount to successfully implement ecosystem-based management. Thresholds shifts and nonlinear patterns in ecosystem responses can be used to determine reference points that identify levels of a pressure that may drastically alter ecosystem status, which can inform management action. However, quantifying ecosystem reference points has proven elusive due in large part to the multi-dimensional nature of both ecosystem pressures and ecosystem responses. We used ecological indicators, synthetic measures of ecosystem status and functioning, to enumerate important ecosystem attributes and to reduce the complexity of the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NES LME). Random forests were used to quantify the importance of four environmental and four anthropogenic pressure variables to the value of ecological indicators, and to quantify shifts in aggregate ecological indicator response along pressure gradients. Anthropogenic pressure variables were critical defining features and were able to predict an average of 8-13% (up to 25-66% for individual ecological indicators) of the variation in ecological indicator values, whereas environmental pressures were able to predict an average of 1-5 % (up to 9-26% for individual ecological indicators) of ecological indicator variation. Each pressure variable predicted a different suite of ecological indicator's variation and the shapes of ecological indicator responses along pressure gradients were generally nonlinear. Threshold shifts in ecosystem response to exploitation, the most important pressure variable, occurred when commercial landings were 20 and 60% of total surveyed biomass. Although present, threshold shifts in ecosystem response to environmental pressures were much less important, which suggests that anthropogenic pressures have significantly altered the ecosystem structure and functioning of the NES LME. Gradient response curves provide ecologically informed transformations of pressure variables to explain patterns of ecosystem structure and functioning. By concurrently identifying thresholds for a suite of ecological indicator responses to multiple pressures, we demonstrate that ecosystem reference points can be evaluated and used to support ecosystem-based management.

Modelling Influence and Opinion Evolution in Online Collective Behaviour

PubMed Central

Gend, Pascal; Rentfrow, Peter J.; Hendrickx, Julien M.; Blondel, Vincent D.

2016-01-01

Opinion evolution and judgment revision are mediated through social influence. Based on a large crowdsourced in vitro experiment (n = 861), it is shown how a consensus model can be used to predict opinion evolution in online collective behaviour. It is the first time the predictive power of a quantitative model of opinion dynamics is tested against a real dataset. Unlike previous research on the topic, the model was validated on data which did not serve to calibrate it. This avoids to favor more complex models over more simple ones and prevents overfitting. The model is parametrized by the influenceability of each individual, a factor representing to what extent individuals incorporate external judgments. The prediction accuracy depends on prior knowledge on the participants’ past behaviour. Several situations reflecting data availability are compared. When the data is scarce, the data from previous participants is used to predict how a new participant will behave. Judgment revision includes unpredictable variations which limit the potential for prediction. A first measure of unpredictability is proposed. The measure is based on a specific control experiment. More than two thirds of the prediction errors are found to occur due to unpredictability of the human judgment revision process rather than to model imperfection. PMID:27336834

Interhost dispersal alters microbiome assembly and can overwhelm host innate immunity in an experimental zebrafish model.

PubMed

Burns, Adam R; Miller, Elizabeth; Agarwal, Meghna; Rolig, Annah S; Milligan-Myhre, Kathryn; Seredick, Steve; Guillemin, Karen; Bohannan, Brendan J M

2017-10-17

The diverse collections of microorganisms associated with humans and other animals, collectively referred to as their "microbiome," are critical for host health, but the mechanisms that govern their assembly are poorly understood. This has made it difficult to identify consistent host factors that explain variation in microbiomes across hosts, despite large-scale sampling efforts. While ecological theory predicts that the movement, or dispersal, of individuals can have profound and predictable consequences on community assembly, its role in the assembly of animal-associated microbiomes remains underexplored. Here, we show that dispersal of microorganisms among hosts can contribute substantially to microbiome variation, and is able to overwhelm the effects of individual host factors, in an experimental test of ecological theory. We manipulated dispersal among wild-type and immune-deficient myd88 knockout zebrafish and observed that interhost dispersal had a large effect on the diversity and composition of intestinal microbiomes. Interhost dispersal was strong enough to overwhelm the effects of host factors, largely eliminating differences between wild-type and immune-deficient hosts, regardless of whether dispersal occurred within or between genotypes, suggesting dispersal can independently alter the ecology of microbiomes. Our observations are consistent with a predictive model that assumes metacommunity dynamics and are likely mediated by dispersal-related microbial traits. These results illustrate the importance of microbial dispersal to animal microbiomes and motivate its integration into the study of host-microbe systems.

Translating natural genetic variation to gene expression in a computational model of the Drosophila gap gene regulatory network

PubMed Central

Kozlov, Konstantin N.; Kulakovskiy, Ivan V.; Zubair, Asif; Marjoram, Paul; Lawrie, David S.; Nuzhdin, Sergey V.; Samsonova, Maria G.

2017-01-01

Annotating the genotype-phenotype relationship, and developing a proper quantitative description of the relationship, requires understanding the impact of natural genomic variation on gene expression. We apply a sequence-level model of gap gene expression in the early development of Drosophila to analyze single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a panel of natural sequenced D. melanogaster lines. Using a thermodynamic modeling framework, we provide both analytical and computational descriptions of how single-nucleotide variants affect gene expression. The analysis reveals that the sequence variants increase (decrease) gene expression if located within binding sites of repressors (activators). We show that the sign of SNP influence (activation or repression) may change in time and space and elucidate the origin of this change in specific examples. The thermodynamic modeling approach predicts non-local and non-linear effects arising from SNPs, and combinations of SNPs, in individual fly genotypes. Simulation of individual fly genotypes using our model reveals that this non-linearity reduces to almost additive inputs from multiple SNPs. Further, we see signatures of the action of purifying selection in the gap gene regulatory regions. To infer the specific targets of purifying selection, we analyze the patterns of polymorphism in the data at two phenotypic levels: the strengths of binding and expression. We find that combinations of SNPs show evidence of being under selective pressure, while individual SNPs do not. The model predicts that SNPs appear to accumulate in the genotypes of the natural population in a way biased towards small increases in activating action on the expression pattern. Taken together, these results provide a systems-level view of how genetic variation translates to the level of gene regulatory networks via combinatorial SNP effects. PMID:28898266

Working Memory Ability Predicts Trajectories of Early Alcohol Use in Adolescents: The Mediational Role of Impulsivity

PubMed Central

Khurana, Atika; Romer, Dan; Betancourt, Laura M.; Brodsky, Nancy L.; Giannetta, Joan M.; Hurt, Hallam

2012-01-01

Aims 1) To evaluate the role of pre-existing weakness in working memory ability (WM) as a risk factor for early alcohol use as mediated by different forms of impulsivity. 2) To assess the adverse effects of progressive alcohol use on variations in WM over time. Design, Setting and Participants A community sample of 358 adolescents [48% males, Meanage(baseline) = 11.4± 0.87 years] from a longitudinal cohort design, assessed annually over four consecutive years with less than 6% attrition. Measurements Repeated assessments were conducted for the following key variables: WM (based on performance on four separate tasks), frequency of alcohol use (AU), and three forms of impulsivity, namely sensation seeking (SS), acting-without-thinking (AWT) and delay discounting (DD). Latent growth curve modeling procedures were used to identify individual trajectories of change for all key variables. Findings Weakness in WM (at baseline) significantly predicted both concurrent alcohol use and increased frequency of use over the four waves (p <.05). This effect was entirely mediated by two forms of impulsivity, AWT and DD, both of which were characterized by underlying weakness in WM. No individual variation was observed in the slopes of WM, which suggests that individual variations in alcohol use were not associated with changes in WM in our early adolescent sample. Conclusions Early adolescent alcohol use may be a consequence of (pre-existing) weaknesses in working memory (WM) rather than a cause of it. Efforts to reduce early alcohol use should consider the distinct roles of different impulsivity dimensions, in addition to WM, as potential targets of intervention. PMID:23033972

The Integrity of the Corpus Callosum Mitigates the Impact of Blood Pressure on the Ventral Attention Network and Information Processing Speed in Healthy Adults

PubMed Central

Wong, Nichol M. L.; Ma, Ernie Po-Wing; Lee, Tatia M. C.

2017-01-01

Hypertension is a risk factor for cognitive impairment in older age. However, evidence of the neural basis of the relationship between the deterioration of cognitive function and elevated blood pressure is sparse. Based on previous research, we speculate that variations in brain connectivity are closely related to elevated blood pressure even before the onset of clinical conditions and apparent cognitive decline in individuals over 60 years of age. Forty cognitively healthy adults were recruited. Each received a blood pressure test before and after the cognitive assessment in various domains. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI) data were collected. Our findings confirm that elevated blood pressure is associated with brain connectivity variations in cognitively healthy individuals. The integrity of the splenium of the corpus callosum is closely related to individual differences in systolic blood pressure. In particular, elevated systolic blood pressure is related to resting-state ventral attention network (VAN) and information processing speed. Serial mediation analyses have further revealed that lower integrity of the splenium statistically predicts elevated systolic blood pressure, which in turn predicts weakened functional connectivity (FC) within the VAN and eventually poorer processing speed. The current study sheds light on how neural correlates are involved in the impact of elevated blood pressure on cognitive functioning. PMID:28484386

Tracking changing environments: innovators are fast, but not flexible learners.

PubMed

Griffin, Andrea S; Guez, David; Lermite, Françoise; Patience, Madeleine

2013-01-01

Behavioural innovations are increasingly thought to provide a rich source of phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary change. Innovation propensity shows substantial variation across avian taxa and provides an adaptive mechanism by which behaviour is flexibly adjusted to changing environmental conditions. Here, we tested for the first time the prediction that inter-individual variation in innovation propensity is equally a measure of behavioural flexibility. We used Indian mynas, Sturnus tristis, a highly successful worldwide invader. Results revealed that mynas that solved an extractive foraging task more quickly learnt to discriminate between a cue that predicted food, and one that did not more quickly. However, fast innovators were slower to change their behaviour when the significance of the food cues changed. This unexpected finding appears at odds with the well-established view that avian taxa with larger brains relative to their body size, and therefore greater neural processing power, are both faster, and more flexible learners. We speculate that the existence of this relationship across taxa can be reconciled with its absence within species by assuming that fast, innovative learners and non innovative, slow, flexible learners constitute two separate individual strategies, which are both underpinned by enhanced neural processing power. This idea is consistent with the recent proposal that individuals may differ consistently in 'cognitive style', differentially trading off speed against accuracy in cognitive tasks.

Next generation sequencing to dissect the genetic architecture of KNG1 and F11 loci using factor XI levels as an intermediate phenotype of thrombosis.

PubMed

Martin-Fernandez, Laura; Gavidia-Bovadilla, Giovana; Corrales, Irene; Brunel, Helena; Ramírez, Lorena; López, Sonia; Souto, Juan Carlos; Vidal, Francisco; Soria, José Manuel

2017-01-01

Venous thromboembolism is a complex disease with a high heritability. There are significant associations among Factor XI (FXI) levels and SNPs in the KNG1 and F11 loci. Our aim was to identify the genetic variation of KNG1 and F11 that might account for the variability of FXI levels. The KNG1 and F11 loci were sequenced completely in 110 unrelated individuals from the GAIT-2 (Genetic Analysis of Idiopathic Thrombophilia 2) Project using Next Generation Sequencing on an Illumina MiSeq. The GAIT-2 Project is a study of 935 individuals in 35 extended Spanish families selected through a proband with idiopathic thrombophilia. Among the 110 individuals, a subset of 40 individuals was chosen as a discovery sample for identifying variants. A total of 762 genetic variants were detected. Several significant associations were established among common variants and low-frequency variants sets in KNG1 and F11 with FXI levels using the PLINK and SKAT packages. Among these associations, those of rs710446 and five low-frequency variant sets in KNG1 with FXI level variation were significant after multiple testing correction and permutation. Also, two putative pathogenic mutations related to high and low FXI levels were identified by data filtering and in silico predictions. This study of KNG1 and F11 loci should help to understand the connection between genotypic variation and variation in FXI levels. The functional genetic variants should be useful as markers of thromboembolic risk.

Do Hormones, Telomere Lengths, and Oxidative Stress form an Integrated Phenotype? A Case Study in Free-Living Tree Swallows.

PubMed

Ouyang, J Q; Lendvai, Á Z; Moore, I T; Bonier, F; Haussmann, M F

2016-08-01

Synopsis All organisms must anticipate and balance energetic demands and available resources in order to maximize fitness. As hormones coordinate many interactions between an organism's internal condition and the external environment, they may be key in mediating the allocation of resources to meet these demands. However, given that individuals differ considerably in how they react to changes in energetic demand, we asked whether variations in endocrine traits also correspond with life history variation. We tested whether natural variation in glucocorticoid hormone levels, oxidative stress measurements, and condition related to reproductive effort in a free-living songbird, the tree swallow, Tachycineta bicolor We then tested whether any of these traits predicted the probability of a particular individual's return to the local population in the following two years, an indicator of survival in this philopatric species. We found that males and females with longer telomeres had lighter nestlings. Moreover, individuals with lower plasma antioxidant capacity and higher reactive oxygen metabolites (i.e., greater oxidative stress) were less likely to return to the population. However, none of these traits were related to glucocorticoid levels. Our findings suggest a trade-off between reproduction and survival, with individuals with shorter telomeres having heavier nestlings but potentially paying a cost in terms of higher oxidative stress and lower survival. Interestingly, the evidence of this trade-off was unrelated to natural variation in glucocorticoids. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A controlled variation scheme for convection treatment in pressure-based algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shyy, Wei; Thakur, Siddharth; Tucker, Kevin

1993-01-01

Convection effect and source terms are two primary sources of difficulties in computing turbulent reacting flows typically encountered in propulsion devices. The present work intends to elucidate the individual as well as the collective roles of convection and source terms in the fluid flow equations, and to devise appropriate treatments and implementations to improve our current capability of predicting such flows. A controlled variation scheme (CVS) has been under development in the context of a pressure-based algorithm, which has the characteristics of adaptively regulating the amount of numerical diffusivity, relative to central difference scheme, according to the variation in local flow field. Both the basic concepts and a pragmatic assessment will be presented to highlight the status of this work.

Modeling wood properties of planted Loblolly pine from pith to bark and stump to tip

Treesearch

Richard F. Daniels; H.E. Rechun; Alexander Clark; Ray A. Souther

2002-01-01

Variation in wood properties follows identifiable patterns within individual trees of Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.j. Wood properties were sampled from disks cut at 1.52 m intervals from 131 mature trees across the natural range of the species. Wood property and mensurational data were used to develop predictive models describing the distribution of...

Individual variation in space use by female spotted hyenas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boydston, Erin E.; Kapheim, Karen M.; Szykman, Micaela; Holekamp, Kay E.

2003-01-01

Large carnivores range more widely than many other terrestrial mammals, and this behavior tends to bring them into frequent conflict with humans. Within any carnivore population, individual variation in patterns of space use should be expected to make some animals more vulnerable than others to risks of mortality from humans and other sources. In this study, our goal was to document variation among individuals in space use by female spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta). We examined predictions of hypotheses suggesting that space use by female hyenas is affected by reproductive state, social rank, and local prey abundance. Home-range size, distance at which females were found from the current communal den, and distance at which they were found from the nearest territorial boundary all varied significantly with the 3 independent variables. Females with den-dwelling cubs had smaller home ranges, were found closer to the communal den, and were found farther from the territorial boundary than were females with no den-dwelling cubs. Neither social rank nor prey availability significantly influenced the space-use patterns of females with den-dwelling cubs. Among females with no den-dwelling cubs, high-ranking females had smaller home ranges, were closer to the communal den, and were farther from the territorial boundary than were low-ranking females. The females ranging most widely were low-ranking individuals with no den-dwelling cubs when they were observed during periods of prey scarcity.

Geobiological Responses to Ocean Acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potts, D. C.

2008-12-01

During 240Ma of evolution, scleractinian corals survived major changes in ocean chemistry, yet recent concerns with rapid acidification after ca. 40Ma of almost constant oceanic pH have tended to distract attention from natural pH variation in coastal waters, where most corals and reefs occur. Unaltered skeletal environmental proxies reflect conditions experienced by individual organisms, with any variation on micro- habitat and micro-time scales appropriate for that individual's ecology, behavior and physiology, but proxy interpretation usually extrapolates to larger spatial (habitat, region to global) and temporal (seasonal, annual, interannual) scales. Therefore, predicting consequences of acidification for both corals and reefs requires greater understanding of: 1. Many potential indirect consequences of pH change that may affect calcification and/or carbonate accretion: e.g. an individual's developmental rates, growth, final size, general physiology and reproductive success; its population's distribution and abundance, symbionts, food availability, predators and pathogens; and its community and ecosystem services. 2. Potentially diverse responses to declining pH, ranging from non-evolutionary, rapid physiological changes (acclimation) or long term (seasonal to interannual) plasticity (acclimatization) of individuals, through genetic adaptation in local populations, and up to directional changes in species" characteristics and/or radiations/extinctions. 3. The evolutionary and environmental history of an organism's lineage, its ecological (own lifetime) exposure to environmental variation, and "pre-adaptation" via other factors acting on correlated characters.

Natural Selection on Individual Variation in Tolerance of Gastrointestinal Nematode Infection

PubMed Central

Hayward, Adam D.; Nussey, Daniel H.; Wilson, Alastair J.; Berenos, Camillo; Pilkington, Jill G.; Watt, Kathryn A.; Pemberton, Josephine M.; Graham, Andrea L.

2014-01-01

Hosts may mitigate the impact of parasites by two broad strategies: resistance, which limits parasite burden, and tolerance, which limits the fitness or health cost of increasing parasite burden. The degree and causes of variation in both resistance and tolerance are expected to influence host–parasite evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics and inform disease management, yet very little empirical work has addressed tolerance in wild vertebrates. Here, we applied random regression models to longitudinal data from an unmanaged population of Soay sheep to estimate individual tolerance, defined as the rate of decline in body weight with increasing burden of highly prevalent gastrointestinal nematode parasites. On average, individuals lost weight as parasite burden increased, but whereas some lost weight slowly as burden increased (exhibiting high tolerance), other individuals lost weight significantly more rapidly (exhibiting low tolerance). We then investigated associations between tolerance and fitness using selection gradients that accounted for selection on correlated traits, including body weight. We found evidence for positive phenotypic selection on tolerance: on average, individuals who lost weight more slowly with increasing parasite burden had higher lifetime breeding success. This variation did not have an additive genetic basis. These results reveal that selection on tolerance operates under natural conditions. They also support theoretical predictions for the erosion of additive genetic variance of traits under strong directional selection and fixation of genes conferring tolerance. Our findings provide the first evidence of selection on individual tolerance of infection in animals and suggest practical applications in animal and human disease management in the face of highly prevalent parasites. PMID:25072883

Early auditory evoked potential is modulated by selective attention and related to individual differences in visual working memory capacity.

PubMed

Giuliano, Ryan J; Karns, Christina M; Neville, Helen J; Hillyard, Steven A

2014-12-01

A growing body of research suggests that the predictive power of working memory (WM) capacity for measures of intellectual aptitude is due to the ability to control attention and select relevant information. Crucially, attentional mechanisms implicated in controlling access to WM are assumed to be domain-general, yet reports of enhanced attentional abilities in individuals with larger WM capacities are primarily within the visual domain. Here, we directly test the link between WM capacity and early attentional gating across sensory domains, hypothesizing that measures of visual WM capacity should predict an individual's capacity to allocate auditory selective attention. To address this question, auditory ERPs were recorded in a linguistic dichotic listening task, and individual differences in ERP modulations by attention were correlated with estimates of WM capacity obtained in a separate visual change detection task. Auditory selective attention enhanced ERP amplitudes at an early latency (ca. 70-90 msec), with larger P1 components elicited by linguistic probes embedded in an attended narrative. Moreover, this effect was associated with greater individual estimates of visual WM capacity. These findings support the view that domain-general attentional control mechanisms underlie the wide variation of WM capacity across individuals.

Episodic autobiographical memory is associated with variation in the size of hippocampal subregions.

PubMed

Palombo, Daniela J; Bacopulos, Agnes; Amaral, Robert S C; Olsen, Rosanna K; Todd, Rebecca M; Anderson, Adam K; Levine, Brian

2018-02-01

Striking individual differences exist in the human capacity to recollect past events, yet, little is known about the neural correlates of such individual differences. Studies investigating hippocampal volume in relation to individual differences in laboratory measures of episodic memory in young adults suggest that whole hippocampal volume is unrelated (or even negatively associated) with episodic memory. However, anatomical and functional specialization across hippocampal subregions suggests that individual differences in episodic memory may be linked to particular hippocampal subregions, as opposed to whole hippocampal volume. Given that the DG/CA 2/3 circuitry is thought to be especially critical for supporting episodic memory in humans, we predicted that the volume of this region would be associated with individual variability in episodic memory. This prediction was supported using high-resolution MRI of the hippocampal subfields and measures of real-world (autobiographical) episodic memory. In addition to the association with DG/CA 2/3 , we further observed a relationship between episodic autobiographical memory and subiculum volume, whereas no association was observed with CA 1 or with whole hippocampal volume. These findings provide insight into the possible neural substrates that mediate individual differences in real-world episodic remembering in humans. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Investigation of Rotor Performance and Loads of a UH-60A Individual Blade Control System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeo, Hyeonsoo; Romander, Ethan A.; Norman, Thomas R.

2011-01-01

Wind tunnel measurements of performance, loads, and vibration of a full-scale UH-60A Black Hawk main rotor with an individual blade control (IBC) system are compared with calculations obtained using the comprehensive helicopter analysis CAMRAD II and a coupled CAMRAD II/OVERFLOW 2 analysis. Measured data show a 5.1% rotor power reduction (8.6% rotor lift to effective-drag ratio increase) using 2/rev IBC actuation with 2.0 amplitude at = 0.4. At the optimum IBC phase for rotor performance, IBC actuator force (pitch link force) decreased, and neither flap nor chord bending moments changed significantly. CAMRAD II predicts the rotor power variations with the IBC phase reasonably well at = 0.35. However, the correlation degrades at = 0.4. Coupled CAMRAD II/OVERFLOW 2 shows excellent correlation with the measured rotor power variations with the IBC phase at both = 0.35 and = 0.4. Maximum reduction of IBC actuator force is better predicted with CAMRAD II, but general trends are better captured with the coupled analysis. The correlation of vibratory hub loads is generally poor by both methods, although the coupled analysis somewhat captures general trends.

Evolution and behavioural responses to human-induced rapid environmental change.

PubMed

Sih, Andrew; Ferrari, Maud C O; Harris, David J

2011-03-01

Almost all organisms live in environments that have been altered, to some degree, by human activities. Because behaviour mediates interactions between an individual and its environment, the ability of organisms to behave appropriately under these new conditions is crucial for determining their immediate success or failure in these modified environments. While hundreds of species are suffering dramatically from these environmental changes, others, such as urbanized and pest species, are doing better than ever. Our goal is to provide insights into explaining such variation. We first summarize the responses of some species to novel situations, including novel risks and resources, habitat loss/fragmentation, pollutants and climate change. Using a sensory ecology approach, we present a mechanistic framework for predicting variation in behavioural responses to environmental change, drawing from models of decision-making processes and an understanding of the selective background against which they evolved. Where immediate behavioural responses are inadequate, learning or evolutionary adaptation may prove useful, although these mechanisms are also constrained by evolutionary history. Although predicting the responses of species to environmental change is difficult, we highlight the need for a better understanding of the role of evolutionary history in shaping individuals' responses to their environment and provide suggestion for future work.

Investigation of Rotor Performance and Loads of a UH-60A Individual Blade Control System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeo, Hyeonsoo; Romander, Ethan A.; Norman, Thomas R.

2011-01-01

Wind tunnel measurements of performance, loads, and vibration of a full-scale UH-60A Black Hawk main rotor with an individual blade control (IBC) system are compared with calculations obtained using the comprehensive helicopter analysis CAMRAD II and a coupled CAMRAD II/OVERFLOW 2 analysis. Measured data show a 5.1% rotor power reduction (8.6% rotor lift to effective-drag ratio increase) using 2/rev IBC actuation with 2.0. amplitude at u = 0.4. At the optimum IBC phase for rotor performance, IBC actuator force (pitch link force) decreased, and neither flap nor chord bending moments changed significantly. CAMRAD II predicts the rotor power variations with IBC phase reasonably well at u = 0.35. However, the correlation degrades at u = 0.4. Coupled CAMRAD II/OVERFLOW 2 shows excellent correlation with the measured rotor power variations with IBC phase at both u = 0.35 and u = 0.4. Maximum reduction of IBC actuator force is better predicted with CAMRAD II, but general trends are better captured with the coupled analysis. The correlation of vibratory hub loads is generally poor by both methods, although the coupled analysis somewhat captures general trends.

Linking melanism to brain development: expression of a melanism-related gene in barn owl feather follicles covaries with sleep ontogeny

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Intra-specific variation in melanocyte pigmentation, common in the animal kingdom, has caught the eye of naturalists and biologists for centuries. In vertebrates, dark, eumelanin pigmentation is often genetically determined and associated with various behavioral and physiological traits, suggesting that the genes involved in melanism have far reaching pleiotropic effects. The mechanisms linking these traits remain poorly understood, and the potential involvement of developmental processes occurring in the brain early in life has not been investigated. We examined the ontogeny of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep, a state involved in brain development, in a wild population of barn owls (Tyto alba) exhibiting inter-individual variation in melanism and covarying traits. In addition to sleep, we measured melanistic feather spots and the expression of a gene in the feather follicles implicated in melanism (PCSK2). Results As in mammals, REM sleep declined with age across a period of brain development in owlets. In addition, inter-individual variation in REM sleep around this developmental trajectory was predicted by variation in PCSK2 expression in the feather follicles, with individuals expressing higher levels exhibiting a more precocial pattern characterized by less REM sleep. Finally, PCSK2 expression was positively correlated with feather spotting. Conclusions We demonstrate that the pace of brain development, as reflected in age-related changes in REM sleep, covaries with the peripheral activation of the melanocortin system. Given its role in brain development, variation in nestling REM sleep may lead to variation in adult brain organization, and thereby contribute to the behavioral and physiological differences observed between adults expressing different degrees of melanism. PMID:23886007

Does Intraspecific Size Variation in a Predator Affect Its Diet Diversity and Top-Down Control of Prey?

PubMed Central

Ingram, Travis; Stutz, William E.; Bolnick, Daniel I.

2011-01-01

It has long been known that intraspecific variation impacts evolutionary processes, but only recently have its potential ecological effects received much attention. Theoretical models predict that genetic or phenotypic variance within species can alter interspecific interactions, and experiments have shown that genotypic diversity in clonal species can impact a wide range of ecological processes. To extend these studies to quantitative trait variation within populations, we experimentally manipulated the variance in body size of threespine stickleback in enclosures in a natural lake environment. We found that body size of stickleback in the lake is correlated with prey size and (to a lesser extent) composition, and that stickleback can exert top-down control on their benthic prey in enclosures. However, a six-fold contrast in body size variance had no effect on the degree of diet variation among individuals, or on the abundance or composition of benthic or pelagic prey. Interestingly, post-hoc analyses revealed suggestive correlations between the degree of diet variation and the strength of top-down control by stickleback. Our negative results indicate that, unless the correlation between morphology and diet is very strong, ecological variation among individuals may be largely decoupled from morphological variance. Consequently we should be cautious in our interpretation both of theoretical models that assume perfect correlations between morphology and diet, and of empirical studies that use morphological variation as a proxy for resource use diversity. PMID:21687670

Does intraspecific size variation in a predator affect its diet diversity and top-down control of prey?

PubMed

Ingram, Travis; Stutz, William E; Bolnick, Daniel I

2011-01-01

It has long been known that intraspecific variation impacts evolutionary processes, but only recently have its potential ecological effects received much attention. Theoretical models predict that genetic or phenotypic variance within species can alter interspecific interactions, and experiments have shown that genotypic diversity in clonal species can impact a wide range of ecological processes. To extend these studies to quantitative trait variation within populations, we experimentally manipulated the variance in body size of threespine stickleback in enclosures in a natural lake environment. We found that body size of stickleback in the lake is correlated with prey size and (to a lesser extent) composition, and that stickleback can exert top-down control on their benthic prey in enclosures. However, a six-fold contrast in body size variance had no effect on the degree of diet variation among individuals, or on the abundance or composition of benthic or pelagic prey. Interestingly, post-hoc analyses revealed suggestive correlations between the degree of diet variation and the strength of top-down control by stickleback. Our negative results indicate that, unless the correlation between morphology and diet is very strong, ecological variation among individuals may be largely decoupled from morphological variance. Consequently we should be cautious in our interpretation both of theoretical models that assume perfect correlations between morphology and diet, and of empirical studies that use morphological variation as a proxy for resource use diversity.

Customizing Countermeasure Prescriptions using Predictive Measures of Sensorimotor Adaptability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloomberg, J. J.; Peters, B. T.; Mulavara, A. P.; Miller, C. A.; Batson, C. D.; Wood, S. J.; Guined, J. R.; Cohen, H. S.; Buccello-Stout, R.; DeDios, Y. E.;

Within-individual variation in bullfrog vocalizations: implications for a vocally mediated social recognition system.

PubMed

Bee, Mark A

2004-12-01

Acoustic signals provide a basis for social recognition in a wide range of animals. Few studies, however, have attempted to relate the patterns of individual variation in signals to behavioral discrimination thresholds used by receivers to discriminate among individuals. North American bullfrogs (Rana catesbeiana) discriminate among familiar and unfamiliar individuals based on individual variation in advertisement calls. The sources, patterns, and magnitudes of variation in eight acoustic properties of multiple-note advertisement calls were examined to understand how patterns of within-individual variation might either constrain, or provide additional cues for, vocal recognition. Six of eight acoustic properties exhibited significant note-to-note variation within multiple-note calls. Despite this source of within-individual variation, all call properties varied significantly among individuals, and multivariate analyses indicated that call notes were individually distinct. Fine-temporal and spectral call properties exhibited less within-individual variation compared to gross-temporal properties and contributed most toward statistically distinguishing among individuals. Among-individual differences in the patterns of within-individual variation in some properties suggest that within-individual variation could also function as a recognition cue. The distributions of among-individual and within-individual differences were used to generate hypotheses about the expected behavioral discrimination thresholds of receivers.

Predictable enriched environment prevents development of hyper-emotionality in the VPA rat model of autism.

PubMed

Favre, Mônica R; La Mendola, Deborah; Meystre, Julie; Christodoulou, Dimitri; Cochrane, Melissa J; Markram, Henry; Markram, Kamila

2015-01-01

Understanding the effects of environmental stimulation in autism can improve therapeutic interventions against debilitating sensory overload, social withdrawal, fear and anxiety. Here, we evaluate the role of environmental predictability on behavior and protein expression, and inter-individual differences, in the valproic acid (VPA) model of autism. Male rats embryonically exposed (E11.5) either to VPA, a known autism risk factor in humans, or to saline, were housed from weaning into adulthood in a standard laboratory environment, an unpredictably enriched environment, or a predictably enriched environment. Animals were tested for sociability, nociception, stereotypy, fear conditioning and anxiety, and for tissue content of glutamate signaling proteins in the primary somatosensory cortex, hippocampus and amygdala, and of corticosterone in plasma, amygdala and hippocampus. Standard group analyses on separate measures were complemented with a composite emotionality score, using Cronbach's Alpha analysis, and with multivariate profiling of individual animals, using Hierarchical Cluster Analysis. We found that predictable environmental enrichment prevented the development of hyper-emotionality in the VPA-exposed group, while unpredictable enrichment did not. Individual variation in the severity of the autistic-like symptoms (fear, anxiety, social withdrawal and sensory abnormalities) correlated with neurochemical profiles, and predicted their responsiveness to predictability in the environment. In controls, the association between socio-affective behaviors, neurochemical profiles and environmental predictability was negligible. This study suggests that rearing in a predictable environment prevents the development of hyper-emotional features in animals exposed to an autism risk factor, and demonstrates that unpredictable environments can lead to negative outcomes, even in the presence of environmental enrichment.

Predictable enriched environment prevents development of hyper-emotionality in the VPA rat model of autism

PubMed Central

Favre, Mônica R.; La Mendola, Deborah; Meystre, Julie; Christodoulou, Dimitri; Cochrane, Melissa J.; Markram, Henry; Markram, Kamila

2015-01-01

Understanding the effects of environmental stimulation in autism can improve therapeutic interventions against debilitating sensory overload, social withdrawal, fear and anxiety. Here, we evaluate the role of environmental predictability on behavior and protein expression, and inter-individual differences, in the valproic acid (VPA) model of autism. Male rats embryonically exposed (E11.5) either to VPA, a known autism risk factor in humans, or to saline, were housed from weaning into adulthood in a standard laboratory environment, an unpredictably enriched environment, or a predictably enriched environment. Animals were tested for sociability, nociception, stereotypy, fear conditioning and anxiety, and for tissue content of glutamate signaling proteins in the primary somatosensory cortex, hippocampus and amygdala, and of corticosterone in plasma, amygdala and hippocampus. Standard group analyses on separate measures were complemented with a composite emotionality score, using Cronbach's Alpha analysis, and with multivariate profiling of individual animals, using Hierarchical Cluster Analysis. We found that predictable environmental enrichment prevented the development of hyper-emotionality in the VPA-exposed group, while unpredictable enrichment did not. Individual variation in the severity of the autistic-like symptoms (fear, anxiety, social withdrawal and sensory abnormalities) correlated with neurochemical profiles, and predicted their responsiveness to predictability in the environment. In controls, the association between socio-affective behaviors, neurochemical profiles and environmental predictability was negligible. This study suggests that rearing in a predictable environment prevents the development of hyper-emotional features in animals exposed to an autism risk factor, and demonstrates that unpredictable environments can lead to negative outcomes, even in the presence of environmental enrichment. PMID:26089770

Regional price differences and food consumption frequency among elementary school children.

PubMed

Sturm, R; Datar, A

2011-03-01

Food prices may affect diet and weight gain among youth and lead to geographic disparities in obesity. This paper examines the association between regional prices and consumption frequency of fruit/vegetables and snack items among elementary school children in the USA. Observational study using individual-level survey data of fifth-grade children (average age 11 years) and regional food prices based on store visits in 2004. Dependent variables are self-reported consumption frequency in fifth grade; primary explanatory variables are metropolitan area food prices relative to cost of living. Multivariate regression analysis. Price variation across metropolitan areas exists, and lower real prices for vegetables and fruits predict significantly higher intake frequency. Higher dairy prices predict lower frequency of milk consumption, while higher meat prices predict increased milk consumption. Similar price effects were not found for fast food or soft drink consumption. The geographic variation in food prices across the USA is sufficiently large to affect dietary patterns among youth for fruit, vegetables and milk. The price variation is either too small to affect children's consumption frequency of fast food or soft drinks, or the consumption of these foods is less price sensitive. Copyright © 2010 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marker-Based Estimates Reveal Significant Non-additive Effects in Clonally Propagated Cassava (Manihot esculenta): Implications for the Prediction of Total Genetic Value and the Selection of Varieties.

PubMed

Wolfe, Marnin D; Kulakow, Peter; Rabbi, Ismail Y; Jannink, Jean-Luc

2016-08-31

In clonally propagated crops, non-additive genetic effects can be effectively exploited by the identification of superior genetic individuals as varieties. Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is a clonally propagated staple food crop that feeds hundreds of millions. We quantified the amount and nature of non-additive genetic variation for three key traits in a breeding population of cassava from sub-Saharan Africa using additive and non-additive genome-wide marker-based relationship matrices. We then assessed the accuracy of genomic prediction for total (additive plus non-additive) genetic value. We confirmed previous findings based on diallel populations, that non-additive genetic variation is significant for key cassava traits. Specifically, we found that dominance is particularly important for root yield and epistasis contributes strongly to variation in CMD resistance. Further, we showed that total genetic value predicted observed phenotypes more accurately than additive only models for root yield but not for dry matter content, which is mostly additive or for CMD resistance, which has high narrow-sense heritability. We address the implication of these results for cassava breeding and put our work in the context of previous results in cassava, and other plant and animal species. Copyright © 2016 Author et al.

Regional price differences and food consumption frequency among elementary school children

PubMed Central

Sturm, R.; Datar, A.

2010-01-01

SUMMARY Objective Food prices may affect diet and weight gain among youth and lead to geographic disparities in obesity. This paper examines the association between regional prices and consumption frequency of fruit/vegetables and snack items among elementary school children in the USA. Study design Observational study using individual-level survey data of fifth-grade children (average age 11 years) and regional food prices based on store visits in 2004. Methods Dependent variables are self-reported consumption frequency in fifth grade; primary explanatory variables are metropolitan area food prices relative to cost of living. Multivariate regression analysis. Results Price variation across metropolitan areas exists, and lower real prices for vegetables and fruits predict significantly higher intake frequency. Higher dairy prices predict lower frequency of milk consumption, while higher meat prices predict increased milk consumption. Similar price effects were not found for fast food or soft drink consumption. Discussion The geographic variation in food prices across the USA is sufficiently large to affect dietary patterns among youth for fruit, vegetables and milk. This suggests that either the price variation is too small to affect children’s consumption frequency of fast food or soft drinks, or that the consumption of these foods is less price sensitive. PMID:21315395

Migrants, health, and happiness: Evidence that health assessments travel with migrants and predict well-being.

PubMed

Ljunge, Martin

2016-09-01

Health assessments correlate with health outcomes and subjective well-being. Immigrants offer an opportunity to study persistent social influences on health where the social conditions are not endogenous to individual outcomes. This approach provides a clear direction of causality from social conditions to health, and in a second stage to well-being. Natives and immigrants from across the world residing in 30 European countries are studied using survey data. The paper applies within country analysis using both linear regressions and two stage least squares. Natives' and immigrants' individual characteristics have similar predictive power for health, except Muslim immigrants who experience a sizeable health penalty. Average health reports in the immigrant's birth country have a significant association with the immigrant's current health. Almost a quarter of the birth country health variation is brought by the immigrants, while conditioning on socioeconomic characteristics. There is no evidence of the birth country predictive power declining neither as the immigrant spends more time in the residence country nor over the life course. The second stage estimates indicate that a one standard deviation improvement in health predicts higher happiness by 1.72 point or 0.82 of a standard deviation, more than four times the happiness difference of changing employment status from unemployed to employed. Studying life satisfaction yields similar results. Health improvements predict substantial increases in individual happiness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of weather on migraine – are migraine attacks predictable?

PubMed Central

Hoffmann, Jan; Schirra, Tonio; Lo, Hendra; Neeb, Lars; Reuter, Uwe; Martus, Peter

2015-01-01

Objective The study aimed at elucidating a potential correlation between specific meteorological variables and the prevalence and intensity of migraine attacks as well as exploring a potential individual predictability of a migraine attack based on meteorological variables and their changes. Methods Attack prevalence and intensity of 100 migraineurs were correlated with atmospheric pressure, relative air humidity, and ambient temperature in 4-h intervals over 12 consecutive months. For each correlation, meteorological parameters at the time of the migraine attack as well as their variation within the preceding 24 h were analyzed. For migraineurs showing a positive correlation, logistic regression analysis was used to assess the predictability of a migraine attack based on meteorological information. Results In a subgroup of migraineurs, a significant weather sensitivity could be observed. In contrast, pooled analysis of all patients did not reveal a significant association. An individual prediction of a migraine attack based on meteorological data was not possible, mainly as a result of the small prevalence of attacks. Interpretation The results suggest that only a subgroup of migraineurs is sensitive to specific weather conditions. Our findings may provide an explanation as to why previous studies, which commonly rely on a pooled analysis, show inconclusive results. The lack of individual attack predictability indicates that the use of preventive measures based on meteorological conditions is not feasible. PMID:25642431

Do polymorphisms in chemosensory genes matter for human ingestive behavior?

PubMed Central

Hayes, John E.; Feeney, Emma L.; Allen, Alissa L.

2013-01-01

In the last decade, basic research in chemoreceptor genetics and neurobiology have revolutionized our understanding of individual differences in chemosensation. From an evolutionary perspective, chemosensory variations appear to have arisen in response to different living environments, generally in the avoidance of toxins and to better detect vital food sources. Today, it is often assumed that these differences may drive variable food preferences and choices, with downstream effects on health and wellness. A growing body of evidence indicates chemosensory variation is far more complex than previously believed. However, just because a genetic polymorphism results in altered receptor function in cultured cells or even behavioral phenotypes in the laboratory, this variation may not be sufficient to influence food choice in free living humans. Still, there is ample evidence to indicate allelic variation in TAS2R38 predicts variation in bitterness of synthetic pharmaceuticals (e.g., propylthiouracil) and natural plant compounds (e.g., goitrin), and this variation associates with differential intake of alcohol and vegetables. Further, this is only one of 25 unique bitter taste genes (TAS2Rs) in humans, and emerging evidence suggests other TAS2Rs may also contain polymorphisms that a functional with respect to ingestive behavior. For example, TAS2R16 polymorphisms are linked to the bitterness of naturally occurring plant compounds and alcoholic beverage intake, a TAS2R19 polymorphism predicts differences in quinine bitterness and grapefruit bitterness and liking, and TAS2R31 polymorphisms associate with differential bitterness of plant compounds like aristolochic acid and the sulfonyl amide sweeteners saccharin and acesulfame-K. More critically with respect to food choices, these polymorphisms may vary independently from each other within and across individuals, meaning a monolithic one-size-fits-all approach to bitterness needs to be abandoned. Nor are genetic differences restricted to bitterness. Perceptual variation has also been associated with polymorphisms in genes involved in odors associated with meat defects (boar taint), green/grassy notes, and cilantro, as well as umami and sweet tastes (TAS1R1/2/3). Here, a short primer on receptor genetics is provided, followed by a summary of current knowledge, and implications for human ingestive behavior are discussed. PMID:23878414

Individual differences in learning predict the return of fear.

PubMed

Gershman, Samuel J; Hartley, Catherine A

2015-09-01

Using a laboratory analogue of learned fear (Pavlovian fear conditioning), we show that there is substantial heterogeneity across individuals in spontaneous recovery of fear following extinction training. We propose that this heterogeneity might stem from qualitative individual differences in the nature of extinction learning. Whereas some individuals tend to form a new memory during extinction, leaving their fear memory intact, others update the original threat association with new safety information, effectively unlearning the fear memory. We formalize this account in a computational model of fear learning and show that individuals who, according to the model, are more likely to form new extinction memories tend to show greater spontaneous recovery compared to individuals who appear to only update a single memory. This qualitative variation in fear and extinction learning may have important implications for understanding vulnerability and resilience to fear-related psychiatric disorders.

A Personalized Predictive Framework for Multivariate Clinical Time Series via Adaptive Model Selection.

PubMed

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2017-11-01

Building of an accurate predictive model of clinical time series for a patient is critical for understanding of the patient condition, its dynamics, and optimal patient management. Unfortunately, this process is not straightforward. First, patient-specific variations are typically large and population-based models derived or learned from many different patients are often unable to support accurate predictions for each individual patient. Moreover, time series observed for one patient at any point in time may be too short and insufficient to learn a high-quality patient-specific model just from the patient's own data. To address these problems we propose, develop and experiment with a new adaptive forecasting framework for building multivariate clinical time series models for a patient and for supporting patient-specific predictions. The framework relies on the adaptive model switching approach that at any point in time selects the most promising time series model out of the pool of many possible models, and consequently, combines advantages of the population, patient-specific and short-term individualized predictive models. We demonstrate that the adaptive model switching framework is very promising approach to support personalized time series prediction, and that it is able to outperform predictions based on pure population and patient-specific models, as well as, other patient-specific model adaptation strategies.

A flexible Bayesian hierarchical approach for analyzing spatial and temporal variation in the fecal corticosterone levels in birds when there is imperfect knowledge of individual identity.

PubMed

Zimmerman, Guthrie S; Millspaugh, Joshua J; Link, William A; Woods, Rami J; Gutiérrez, R J

2013-12-01

Population cycles have long interested biologists. The ruffed grouse, Bonasa umbellus, is one such species whose populations cycle over most of their range. Thus, much effort has been expended to understand the mechanisms that might control cycles in this and other species. Corticosterone metabolites are widely used in studies of animals to measure physiological stress. We evaluated corticosterone metabolites in feces of territorial male grouse as a potential tool to study mechanisms governing grouse cycles. However, like most studies of corticosterone in wild animals, we did not know the identity of all individuals for which we had fecal samples. This presented an analytical problem that resulted in either pseudoreplication or confounding. Therefore, we derived an analytical approach that accommodated for uncertainty in individual identification. Because we had relatively low success capturing birds, we estimated turnover probabilities of birds on territorial display sites based on capture histories of a limited number of birds we captured. Hence, we developed a study design and modeling approach to quantify variation in corticosterone levels among individuals and through time that would be applicable to any field study of corticosterone in wild animals. Specifically, we wanted a sampling design and model that was flexible enough to partition variation among individuals, spatial units, and years, while incorporating environmental covariates that would represent potential mechanisms. We conducted our study during the decline phase of the grouse cycle and found high variation among corticosterone samples (11.33-443.92 ng/g [x=113.99 ng/g, SD=69.08, median=99.03 ng/g]). However, there were relatively small differences in corticosterone levels among years, but levels declined throughout each breeding season, which was opposite our predictions for stress hormones correlating with a declining population. We partitioned the residual variation into site, bird, and repetition (i.e., multiple samples collected from the same bird on the same day). After accounting for years and three general periods within breeding seasons, 42% of the residual variation among observations was attributable to differences among individual birds. Thus, we attribute little influence of site on stress level of birds in our study, but disentangling individual from site effects is difficult because site and bird are confounded. Our model structures provided analytical approaches for studying species having different ecologies. Our approach also demonstrates that even incomplete information on individual identity of birds within samples is useful for analyzing these types of data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Culture-gene coevolution of individualism-collectivism and the serotonin transporter gene.

PubMed

Chiao, Joan Y; Blizinsky, Katherine D

2010-02-22

Culture-gene coevolutionary theory posits that cultural values have evolved, are adaptive and influence the social and physical environments under which genetic selection operates. Here, we examined the association between cultural values of individualism-collectivism and allelic frequency of the serotonin transporter functional polymorphism (5-HTTLPR) as well as the role this culture-gene association may play in explaining global variability in prevalence of pathogens and affective disorders. We found evidence that collectivistic cultures were significantly more likely to comprise individuals carrying the short (S) allele of the 5-HTTLPR across 29 nations. Results further show that historical pathogen prevalence predicts cultural variability in individualism-collectivism owing to genetic selection of the S allele. Additionally, cultural values and frequency of S allele carriers negatively predict global prevalence of anxiety and mood disorder. Finally, mediation analyses further indicate that increased frequency of S allele carriers predicted decreased anxiety and mood disorder prevalence owing to increased collectivistic cultural values. Taken together, our findings suggest culture-gene coevolution between allelic frequency of 5-HTTLPR and cultural values of individualism-collectivism and support the notion that cultural values buffer genetically susceptible populations from increased prevalence of affective disorders. Implications of the current findings for understanding culture-gene coevolution of human brain and behaviour as well as how this coevolutionary process may contribute to global variation in pathogen prevalence and epidemiology of affective disorders, such as anxiety and depression, are discussed.

Expected satiation alone does not predict actual intake of desserts.

PubMed

Guillocheau, Etienne; Davidenko, Olga; Marsset-Baglieri, Agnès; Darcel, Nicolas; Gaudichon, Claire; Tomé, Daniel; Fromentin, Gilles

2018-04-01

The degree to which consumers expect foods to satisfy hunger, referred to as expected satiation, has been reported to predict food intake. Yet this relationship has not been established precisely, at a quantitative level. We sought to explore this relationship in detail by determining whether expected satiation predicts the actual intake of semi-solid desserts. Two separate experiments were performed: the first used variations of a given food (eight apple purées), while the second involved a panel of different foods within a given category (eight desserts). Both experiments studied the consumption of two products assigned to volunteers based on their individual liking and expected satiation ratings, given ad libitum at the end of a standardised meal. A linear model was used to find predictors of food intake and included expected satiation scores, palatability scores, BMI, age, sex, TFEQ-R, TFEQ-D, water consumption during the meal, reported frequency of eating desserts, and reported frequency of consuming tested products as explanatory variables. Expected satiation was a significant predictor of actual food intake in both experiments (apple purée: F(1,97) = 18.60, P < .001; desserts: F(1,106) = 9.05, P < .01), along with other parameters such as product palatability and the volunteers' age, sex and food restriction (variation explained by the model/expected satiation in the experiments: 57%/23% and 36%/17%, respectively). However, we found a significant gap between expected and actual consumption of desserts, on group and on individual level. Our results confirm the importance of expected satiation as a predictor of subsequent food intake, but highlight the need to study individual consumption behaviour and preferences in order to fully understand the role of expected satiation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behaviour in captivity predicts some aspects of natural behaviour, but not others, in a wild cricket population

PubMed Central

Fisher, David N.; James, Adèle; Rodríguez-Muñoz, Rolando; Tregenza, Tom

2015-01-01

Examining the relevance of ‘animal personality’ involves linking consistent among- and within-individual behavioural variation to fitness in the wild. Studies aiming to do this typically assay personality in captivity and rely on the assumption that measures of traits in the laboratory reflect their expression in nature. We examined this rarely tested assumption by comparing laboratory and field measurements of the behaviour of wild field crickets (Gryllus campestris) by continuously monitoring individual behaviour in nature, and repeatedly capturing the same individuals and measuring their behaviour in captivity. We focused on three traits that are frequently examined in personality studies: shyness, activity and exploration. All of them showed repeatability in the laboratory. Laboratory activity and exploration predicted the expression of their equivalent behaviours in the wild, but shyness did not. Traits in the wild were predictably influenced by environmental factors such as temperature and sunlight, but only activity showed appreciable within-individual repeatability. This suggests that some behaviours typically studied as personality traits can be accurately assayed in captivity, but the expression of others may be highly context-specific. Our results highlight the importance of validating the relevance of laboratory behavioural assays to analogous traits measured in the wild. PMID:26019161

Socially Driven Consistent Behavioural Differences during Development in Common Ravens and Carrion Crows.

PubMed

Miller, Rachael; Laskowski, Kate L; Schiestl, Martina; Bugnyar, Thomas; Schwab, Christine

2016-01-01

Consistent individual differences in behaviour, or 'personality', are likely to be influenced by development, social context, and species ecology, though few comparative, longitudinal studies exist. Here, we investigated the role of development and social context on personality variation in two identically reared, social corvids: common ravens and carrion crows. We repeatedly presented subjects with a variety of novel food and objects, while alone and in a primarily sibling subgroup, from fledging to sub-adulthood. We predicted that consistent individual differences would emerge later in development, and that conspecific presence would facilitate behavioural similarities. In contrast to our predictions, we found that individuals of both species were highly inconsistent in their behavioural responses throughout the development period. In line with our predictions, though in the ravens only, conspecific presence promoted behavioural similarities as individuals were strongly shaped by their subgroup, and it is likely that these effects were driven by social context rather than relatedness. We discuss these findings in relation to developmental steps and the role of social relations in these species. Overall, our findings highlight that these two species are highly adaptable in their behaviour, and the ravens in particular are strongly influenced by their social environment, which may facilitate cooperation and social learning.

Socially Driven Consistent Behavioural Differences during Development in Common Ravens and Carrion Crows

PubMed Central

Miller, Rachael; Laskowski, Kate L.; Schiestl, Martina; Bugnyar, Thomas; Schwab, Christine

2016-01-01

Consistent individual differences in behaviour, or ‘personality’, are likely to be influenced by development, social context, and species ecology, though few comparative, longitudinal studies exist. Here, we investigated the role of development and social context on personality variation in two identically reared, social corvids: common ravens and carrion crows. We repeatedly presented subjects with a variety of novel food and objects, while alone and in a primarily sibling subgroup, from fledging to sub-adulthood. We predicted that consistent individual differences would emerge later in development, and that conspecific presence would facilitate behavioural similarities. In contrast to our predictions, we found that individuals of both species were highly inconsistent in their behavioural responses throughout the development period. In line with our predictions, though in the ravens only, conspecific presence promoted behavioural similarities as individuals were strongly shaped by their subgroup, and it is likely that these effects were driven by social context rather than relatedness. We discuss these findings in relation to developmental steps and the role of social relations in these species. Overall, our findings highlight that these two species are highly adaptable in their behaviour, and the ravens in particular are strongly influenced by their social environment, which may facilitate cooperation and social learning. PMID:26848954

Diurnal blood pressure variations are associated with changes in distal-proximal skin temperature gradient.

PubMed

Kräuchi, Kurt; Gompper, Britta; Hauenstein, Daniela; Flammer, Josef; Pflüger, Marlon; Studerus, Erich; Schötzau, Andy; Orgül, Selim

2012-11-01

It is generally assumed that skin vascular resistance contributes only to a small extent to total peripheral resistance and hence to blood pressure (BP). However, little is known about the impact of skin blood flow (SBF) changes on the diurnal variations of BP under ambulatory conditions. The main aim of the study was to determine whether diurnal patterns of distal SBF are related to mean arterial BP (MAP). Twenty-four-hour ambulatory measurements of BP, heart rate (HR) and distal (mean of hands and feet) as well as proximal (mean of sternum and infraclavicular region) skin temperatures were carried out in 51 patients (men/women = 18/33) during a 2-d eye hospital investigation. The standardized ambulatory protocol allowed measurements with minimal interference from uncontrolled parameters and, hence, some conclusive interpretations. The distal minus proximal skin temperature gradient (DPG) provided a measure for distal SBF. Individual cross-correlation analyses revealed that the diurnal pattern of MAP was nearly a mirror image of DPG and hence of distal SBF. Scheduled lunch and dinner induced an increase in DPG and a decline in MAP, while HR increased. Low daytime DPG (i.e. low distal SBF) levels significantly predicted sleep-induced BP dipping (r = -.436, p = .0014). Preliminary path analysis suggested that outdoor air temperature and atmospheric pressure may act on MAP via changed distal SBF. Changes in distal SBF may contribute to diurnal variation in MAP, including sleep-induced BP dipping and changes related to food intake. This finding might have an impact on individual cardiovascular risk prediction with respect to diurnal, seasonal and weather variations; however, the underlying mechanisms remain to be discovered.

A reexamination of age-related variation in body weight and morphometry of Maryland nutria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherfy, M.H.; Mollett, T.A.; McGowan, K.R.; Daugherty, S.L.

2006-01-01

Age-related variation in morphometry has been documented for many species. Knowledge of growth patterns can be useful for modeling energetics, detecting physiological influences on populations, and predicting age. These benefits have shown value in understanding population dynamics of invasive species, particularly in developing efficient control and eradication programs. However, development and evaluation of descriptive and predictive models is a critical initial step in this process. Accordingly, we used data from necropsies of 1,544 nutria (Myocastor coypus) collected in Maryland, USA, to evaluate the accuracy of previously published models for prediction of nutria age from body weight. Published models underestimated body weights of our animals, especially for ages <3. We used cross-validation procedures to develop and evaluate models for describing nutria growth patterns and for predicting nutria age. We derived models from a randomly selected model-building data set (n = 192-193 M, 217-222 F) and evaluated them with the remaining animals (n = 487-488 M, 642-647 F). We used nonlinear regression to develop Gompertz growth-curve models relating morphometric variables to age. Predicted values of morphometric variables fell within the 95% confidence limits of their true values for most age classes. We also developed predictive models for estimating nutria age from morphometry, using linear regression of log-transformed age on morphometric variables. The evaluation data set corresponded with 95% prediction intervals from the new models. Predictive models for body weight and length provided greater accuracy and less bias than models for foot length and axillary girth. Our growth models accurately described age-related variation in nutria morphometry, and our predictive models provided accurate estimates of ages from morphometry that will be useful for live-captured individuals. Our models offer better accuracy and precision than previously published models, providing a capacity for modeling energetics and growth patterns of Maryland nutria as well as an empirical basis for determining population age structure from live-captured animals.

Effects of emergence time and early social rearing environment on behaviour of Atlantic salmon: consequences for juvenile fitness and smolt migration.

PubMed

Larsen, Martin H; Johnsson, Jörgen I; Winberg, Svante; Wilson, Alexander D M; Hammenstig, David; Thörnqvist, Per-Ove; Midwood, Jonathan D; Aarestrup, Kim; Höglund, Erik

2015-01-01

Consistent individual differences in behaviour have been well documented in a variety of animal taxa, but surprisingly little is known about the fitness and life-history consequences of such individual variation. In wild salmonids, the timing of fry emergence from gravel spawning nests has been suggested to be coupled with individual behavioural traits. Here, we further investigate the link between timing of spawning nest emergence and behaviour of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), test effects of social rearing environment on behavioural traits in fish with different emergence times, and assess whether behavioural traits measured in the laboratory predict growth, survival, and migration status in the wild. Atlantic salmon fry were sorted with respect to emergence time from artificial spawning nest into three groups: early, intermediate, and late. These emergence groups were hatchery-reared separately or in co-culture for four months to test effects of social rearing environment on behavioural traits. Twenty fish from each of the six treatment groups were then subjected to three individual-based behavioural tests: basal locomotor activity, boldness, and escape response. Following behavioural characterization, the fish were released into a near-natural experimental stream. Results showed differences in escape behaviour between emergence groups in a net restraining test, but the social rearing environment did not affect individual behavioural expression. Emergence time and social environment had no significant effects on survival, growth, and migration status in the stream, although migration propensity was 1.4 to 1.9 times higher for early emerging individuals that were reared separately. In addition, despite individuals showing considerable variation in behaviour across treatment groups, this was not translated into differences in growth, survival, and migration status. Hence, our study adds to the view that fitness (i.e., growth and survival) and life-history predictions from laboratory measures of behaviour should be made with caution and ideally tested in nature.

Functional Brain Network Modularity Captures Inter- and Intra-Individual Variation in Working Memory Capacity

PubMed Central

Stevens, Alexander A.; Tappon, Sarah C.; Garg, Arun; Fair, Damien A.

2012-01-01

Background Cognitive abilities, such as working memory, differ among people; however, individuals also vary in their own day-to-day cognitive performance. One potential source of cognitive variability may be fluctuations in the functional organization of neural systems. The degree to which the organization of these functional networks is optimized may relate to the effective cognitive functioning of the individual. Here we specifically examine how changes in the organization of large-scale networks measured via resting state functional connectivity MRI and graph theory track changes in working memory capacity. Methodology/Principal Findings Twenty-two participants performed a test of working memory capacity and then underwent resting-state fMRI. Seventeen subjects repeated the protocol three weeks later. We applied graph theoretic techniques to measure network organization on 34 brain regions of interest (ROI). Network modularity, which measures the level of integration and segregation across sub-networks, and small-worldness, which measures global network connection efficiency, both predicted individual differences in memory capacity; however, only modularity predicted intra-individual variation across the two sessions. Partial correlations controlling for the component of working memory that was stable across sessions revealed that modularity was almost entirely associated with the variability of working memory at each session. Analyses of specific sub-networks and individual circuits were unable to consistently account for working memory capacity variability. Conclusions/Significance The results suggest that the intrinsic functional organization of an a priori defined cognitive control network measured at rest provides substantial information about actual cognitive performance. The association of network modularity to the variability in an individual's working memory capacity suggests that the organization of this network into high connectivity within modules and sparse connections between modules may reflect effective signaling across brain regions, perhaps through the modulation of signal or the suppression of the propagation of noise. PMID:22276205

Bridging the Nomothetic and Idiographic Approaches to the Analysis of Clinical Data.

PubMed

Beltz, Adriene M; Wright, Aidan G C; Sprague, Briana N; Molenaar, Peter C M

2016-08-01

The nomothetic approach (i.e., the study of interindividual variation) dominates analyses of clinical data, even though its assumption of homogeneity across people and time is often violated. The idiographic approach (i.e., the study of intraindividual variation) is best suited for analyses of heterogeneous clinical data, but its person-specific methods and results have been criticized as unwieldy. Group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) combines the assets of the nomothetic and idiographic approaches by creating person-specific maps that contain a group-level structure. The maps show how intensively measured variables predict and are predicted by each other at different time scales. In this article, GIMME is introduced conceptually and mathematically, and then applied to an empirical data set containing the negative affect, detachment, disinhibition, and hostility composite ratings from the daily diaries of 25 individuals with personality pathology. Results are discussed with the aim of elucidating GIMME's potential for clinical research and practice.

Chapter 6: Temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Hauer, F. Richard; F. Richard Hauer,; Lamberti, G.A.

2017-01-01

Stream temperature has direct and indirect effects on stream ecology and is critical in determining both abiotic and biotic system responses across a hierarchy of spatial and temporal scales. Temperature variation is primarily driven by solar radiation, while landscape topography, geology, and stream reach scale ecosystem processes contribute to local variability. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in freshwater ecosystems influences habitat distributions, physiological functions, and phenology of all aquatic organisms. In this chapter we provide an overview of methods for monitoring stream temperature, characterization of thermal profiles, and modeling approaches to stream temperature prediction. Recent advances in temperature monitoring allow for more comprehensive studies of the underlying processes influencing annual variation of temperatures and how thermal variability may impact aquatic organisms at individual, population, and community based scales. Likewise, the development of spatially explicit predictive models provide a framework for simulating natural and anthropogenic effects on thermal regimes which is integral for sustainable management of freshwater systems.

A non-destructive selection criterion for fibre content in jute : II. Regression approach.

PubMed

Arunachalam, V; Iyer, R D

1974-01-01

An experiment with ten populations of jute, comprising varieties and mutants of the two species Corchorus olitorius and C.capsularis was conducted at two different locations with the object of evolving an effective criterion for selecting superior single plants for fibre yield. At Delhi, variation existed only between varieties as a group and mutants as a group, while at Pusa variation also existed among the mutant populations of C. capsularis.A multiple regression approach was used to find the optimum combination of characters for prediction of fibre yield. A process of successive elimination of characters based on the coefficient of determination provided by individual regression equations was employed to arrive at the optimal set of characters for predicting fibre yield. It was found that plant height, basal and mid-diameters and basal and mid-dry fibre weights would provide such an optimal set.

Genomic Analysis of Genotype-by-Social Environment Interaction for Drosophila melanogaster Aggressive Behavior.

PubMed

Rohde, Palle Duun; Gaertner, Bryn; Ward, Kirsty; Sørensen, Peter; Mackay, Trudy F C

2017-08-01

Human psychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder often include adverse behaviors including increased aggressiveness. Individuals with psychiatric disorders often exhibit social withdrawal, which can further increase the probability of conducting a violent act. Here, we used the inbred, sequenced lines of the Drosophila Genetic Reference Panel (DGRP) to investigate the genetic basis of variation in male aggressive behavior for flies reared in a socialized and socially isolated environment. We identified genetic variation for aggressive behavior, as well as significant genotype-by-social environmental interaction (GSEI); i.e. , variation among DGRP genotypes in the degree to which social isolation affected aggression. We performed genome-wide association (GWA) analyses to identify genetic variants associated with aggression within each environment. We used genomic prediction to partition genetic variants into gene ontology (GO) terms and constituent genes, and identified GO terms and genes with high prediction accuracies in both social environments and for GSEI. The top predictive GO terms significantly increased the proportion of variance explained, compared to prediction models based on all segregating variants. We performed genomic prediction across environments, and identified genes in common between the social environments that turned out to be enriched for genome-wide associated variants. A large proportion of the associated genes have previously been associated with aggressive behavior in Drosophila and mice. Further, many of these genes have human orthologs that have been associated with neurological disorders, indicating partially shared genetic mechanisms underlying aggression in animal models and human psychiatric disorders. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Feeding habitat quality and behavioral trade-offs in chimpanzees: a case for species distribution models.

PubMed

Foerster, Steffen; Zhong, Ying; Pintea, Lilian; Murray, Carson M; Wilson, Michael L; Mjungu, Deus C; Pusey, Anne E

2016-01-01

The distribution and abundance of food resources are among the most important factors that influence animal behavioral strategies. Yet, spatial variation in feeding habitat quality is often difficult to assess with traditional methods that rely on extrapolation from plot survey data or remote sensing. Here, we show that maximum entropy species distribution modeling can be used to successfully predict small-scale variation in the distribution of 24 important plant food species for chimpanzees at Gombe National Park, Tanzania. We combined model predictions with behavioral observations to quantify feeding habitat quality as the cumulative dietary proportion of the species predicted to occur in a given location. This measure exhibited considerable spatial heterogeneity with elevation and latitude, both within and across main habitat types. We used model results to assess individual variation in habitat selection among adult chimpanzees during a 10-year period, testing predictions about trade-offs between foraging and reproductive effort. We found that nonswollen females selected the highest-quality habitats compared with swollen females or males, in line with predictions based on their energetic needs. Swollen females appeared to compromise feeding in favor of mating opportunities, suggesting that females rather than males change their ranging patterns in search of mates. Males generally occupied feeding habitats of lower quality, which may exacerbate energetic challenges of aggression and territory defense. Finally, we documented an increase in feeding habitat quality with community residence time in both sexes during the dry season, suggesting an influence of familiarity on foraging decisions in a highly heterogeneous landscape.

Temporally dynamic habitat suitability predicts genetic relatedness among caribou.

PubMed

Yannic, Glenn; Pellissier, Loïc; Le Corre, Maël; Dussault, Christian; Bernatchez, Louis; Côté, Steeve D

2014-10-07

Landscape heterogeneity plays a central role in shaping ecological and evolutionary processes. While species utilization of the landscape is usually viewed as constant within a year, the spatial distribution of individuals is likely to vary in time in relation to particular seasonal needs. Understanding temporal variation in landscape use and genetic connectivity has direct conservation implications. Here, we modelled the daily use of the landscape by caribou in Quebec and Labrador, Canada and tested its ability to explain the genetic relatedness among individuals. We assessed habitat selection using locations of collared individuals in migratory herds and static occurrences from sedentary groups. Connectivity models based on habitat use outperformed a baseline isolation-by-distance model in explaining genetic relatedness, suggesting that variations in landscape features such as snow, vegetation productivity and land use modulate connectivity among populations. Connectivity surfaces derived from habitat use were the best predictors of genetic relatedness. The relationship between connectivity surface and genetic relatedness varied in time and peaked during the rutting period. Landscape permeability in the period of mate searching is especially important to allow gene flow among populations. Our study highlights the importance of considering temporal variations in habitat selection for optimizing connectivity across heterogeneous landscape and counter habitat fragmentation. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Intra-Seasonal Flexibility in Avian Metabolic Performance Highlights the Uncoupling of Basal Metabolic Rate and Thermogenic Capacity

PubMed Central

Petit, Magali; Lewden, Agnès; Vézina, François

2013-01-01

Stochastic winter weather events are predicted to increase in occurrence and amplitude at northern latitudes and organisms are expected to cope through phenotypic flexibility. Small avian species wintering in these environments show acclimatization where basal metabolic rate (BMR) and maximal thermogenic capacity (MSUM) are typically elevated. However, little is known on intra-seasonal variation in metabolic performance and on how population trends truly reflect individual flexibility. Here we report intra-seasonal variation in metabolic parameters measured at the population and individual levels in black-capped chickadees ( Poecile atricapillus ). Results confirmed that population patterns indeed reflect flexibility at the individual level. They showed the expected increase in BMR (6%) and MSUM (34%) in winter relative to summer but also, and most importantly, that these parameters changed differently through time. BMR began its seasonal increase in November, while MSUM had already achieved more than 20% of its inter-seasonal increase by October, and declined to its starting level by March, while MSUM remained high. Although both parameters co-vary on a yearly scale, this mismatch in the timing of variation in winter BMR and MSUM likely reflects different constraints acting on different physiological components and therefore suggests a lack of functional link between these parameters. PMID:23840843

Evaluation of Interindividual Human Variation in Bioactivation and DNA Adduct Formation of Estragole in Liver Predicted by Physiologically Based Kinetic/Dynamic and Monte Carlo Modeling.

PubMed

Punt, Ans; Paini, Alicia; Spenkelink, Albertus; Scholz, Gabriele; Schilter, Benoit; van Bladeren, Peter J; Rietjens, Ivonne M C M

2016-04-18

Estragole is a known hepatocarcinogen in rodents at high doses following metabolic conversion to the DNA-reactive metabolite 1'-sulfooxyestragole. The aim of the present study was to model possible levels of DNA adduct formation in (individual) humans upon exposure to estragole. This was done by extending a previously defined PBK model for estragole in humans to include (i) new data on interindividual variation in the kinetics for the major PBK model parameters influencing the formation of 1'-sulfooxyestragole, (ii) an equation describing the relationship between 1'-sulfooxyestragole and DNA adduct formation, (iii) Monte Carlo modeling to simulate interindividual human variation in DNA adduct formation in the population, and (iv) a comparison of the predictions made to human data on DNA adduct formation for the related alkenylbenzene methyleugenol. Adequate model predictions could be made, with the predicted DNA adduct levels at the estimated daily intake of estragole of 0.01 mg/kg bw ranging between 1.6 and 8.8 adducts in 10(8) nucleotides (nts) (50th and 99th percentiles, respectively). This is somewhat lower than values reported in the literature for the related alkenylbenzene methyleugenol in surgical human liver samples. The predicted levels seem to be below DNA adduct levels that are linked with tumor formation by alkenylbenzenes in rodents, which were estimated to amount to 188-500 adducts per 10(8) nts at the BMD10 values of estragole and methyleugenol. Although this does not seem to point to a significant health concern for human dietary exposure, drawing firm conclusions may have to await further validation of the model's predictions.

Geographic Variations in Cardiovascular Health in the United States: Contributions of State- and Individual-Level Factors

PubMed Central

Gebreab, Samson Y; Davis, Sharon K; Symanzik, Jürgen; Mensah, George A; Gibbons, Gary H; Diez-Roux, Ana V

2015-01-01

Background Improving cardiovascular health (CVH) of all Americans by 2020 is a strategic goal of the American Heart Association. Understanding the sources of variation and identifying contextual factors associated with poor CVH may suggest important avenues for prevention. Methods and Results Cross-sectional data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System for the year 2011 were linked to state-level coronary heart disease and stroke mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and to state-level measures of median household income, income inequality, taxes on soda drinks and cigarettes, and food and physical activity environments from various administrative sources. Poor CVH was defined according to the American Heart Association definition using 7 self-reported CVH metrics (current smoking, physical inactivity, obesity, poor diet, hypertension, diabetes, and high cholesterol). Linked micromap plots and multilevel logistic models were used to examine state variation in poor CVH and to investigate the contributions of individual- and state-level factors to this variation. We found significant state-level variation in the prevalence of poor CVH (median odds ratio 1.32, P<0.001). Higher rates of poor CVH and cardiovascular disease mortality were clustered in the southern states. Minority and low socioeconomic groups were strongly associated with poor CVH and explained 51% of the state-level variation in poor CVH; state-level factors explained an additional 28%. State-level median household income (odds ratio 0.89; 95% CI 0.84–0.94), taxes on soda drinks (odds ratio 0.94; 95% CI 0.89–0.99), farmers markets (odds ratio 0.91; 95% CI 0.85–0.98), and convenience stores (odds ratio 1.09; 95% CI 1.01–1.17) were predictive of poor CVH even after accounting for individual-level factors. Conclusions There is significant state-level variation in poor CVH that is partly explained by individual- and state-level factors. Additional longitudinal research is warranted to examine the influence of state-level policies and food and physical activity environments on poor CVH. PMID:26019131

Novel Loci Underlie Natural Variation in Vitamin E Levels in Maize Grain[OPEN

PubMed Central

Diepenbrock, Christine H.; Kandianis, Catherine B.; Lipka, Alexander E.; Magallanes-Lundback, Maria; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Cepela, Jason; Bradbury, Peter J.; Mateos-Hernandez, Maria; Hamilton, John; Owens, Brenda F.; Tiede, Tyler; Rocheford, Torbert

2017-01-01

Tocopherols, tocotrienols, and plastochromanols (collectively termed tocochromanols) are lipid-soluble antioxidants synthesized by all plants. Their dietary intake, primarily from seed oils, provides vitamin E and other health benefits. Tocochromanol biosynthesis has been dissected in the dicot Arabidopsis thaliana, which has green, photosynthetic seeds, but our understanding of tocochromanol accumulation in major crops, whose seeds are nonphotosynthetic, remains limited. To understand the genetic control of tocochromanols in grain, we conducted a joint linkage and genome-wide association study in the 5000-line U.S. maize (Zea mays) nested association mapping panel. Fifty-two quantitative trait loci for individual and total tocochromanols were identified, and of the 14 resolved to individual genes, six encode novel activities affecting tocochromanols in plants. These include two chlorophyll biosynthetic enzymes that explain the majority of tocopherol variation, which was not predicted given that, like most major cereal crops, maize grain is nonphotosynthetic. This comprehensive assessment of natural variation in vitamin E levels in maize establishes the foundation for improving tocochromanol and vitamin E content in seeds of maize and other major cereal crops. PMID:28970338

EVENT PREDICTION AND AFFECTIVE FORECASTING IN DEPRESSIVE COGNITION: USING EMOTION AS INFORMATION ABOUT THE FUTURE

PubMed Central

MARROQUÍN, BRETT; NOLEN-HOEKSEMA, SUSAN

2015-01-01

Depression is characterized by a bleak view of the future, but the mechanisms through which depressed mood is integrated into basic processes of future-oriented cognition are unclear. We hypothesized that dysphoric individuals’ predictions of what will happen in the future (likelihood estimation) and how the future will feel (affective forecasting) are attributable to individual differences in incorporating present emotion as judgment-relevant information. Dysphoric individuals (n = 77) made pessimistic likelihood estimates and blunted positive affective forecasts relative to controls (n = 84). These differences were mediated by dysphoric individuals’ tendencies to rely on negative emotion as information more than controls—and on positive emotion less—independent of anhedonia. These findings suggest that (1) blunted positive affective forecasting is a distinctive component of depressive future-oriented cognition, and (2) future-oriented cognitive processes are linked not just to current emotional state, but also to individual variation in using that emotion as information. This role of individual differences elucidates basic mechanisms in future-oriented cognition, and suggests routes for intervention on interrelated cognitive and affective processes in depression. PMID:26146452

Variation in Chemotherapy Utilization in Ovarian Cancer: The Relative Contribution of Geography

PubMed Central

Polsky, Daniel; Armstrong, Katrina A; Randall, Thomas C; Ross, Richard N; Even-Shoshan, Orit; Rosenbaum, Paul R; Silber, Jeffrey H

2006-01-01

Objective This study investigates geographic variation in chemotherapy utilization for ovarian cancer in both absolute and relative terms and examines area characteristics associated with this variation. Data Sources Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Medicare data from 1990 to 2001 for Medicare patients over 65 with a diagnosis of ovarian cancer between 1990 and 1999. Chemotherapy within a year of diagnosis was identified by Medicare billing codes. The hospital referral region (HRR) represents the geographic unit of analysis. Study Design A logit model predicting the probability of receiving chemotherapy by each of the 39 HRRs. Control variables included medical characteristics (patient age, stage, year of diagnosis, and comorbidities) and socioeconomic characteristics (race, income, and education). The variation among HRRs was tested by the χ2 statistic, and the relative contribution was measured by the ω statistic. HHR market characteristic are then used to explain HRR-level variation. Principal Findings The average chemotherapy rate was 56.6 percent, with a range by HRR from 33 percent to 67 percent. There were large and significant differences in chemotherapy use between HRRs, reflected by a χ2 for HRR of 146 (df=38, p<.001). HRR-level variation in chemotherapy use can be partially explained by higher chemotherapy rates in HRRs with a higher percentage of hospitals with oncology services. However, an ω analysis indicates that, by about 15 to one, the variation between patients in use of chemotherapy reflects variations in patient characteristics rather than unexplained variation among HRRs. Conclusions While absolute levels of chemotherapy variation between geographic areas are large and statistically significant, this analysis suggests that the role of geography in determining who gets chemotherapy is small relative to individual medical characteristics. Nevertheless, while variation by medical characteristics can be medically justified, the same cannot be said for geographic variation. Our finding that density of oncology hospitals predicts chemotherapy use suggests that provider supply is positively correlated with geographic variation. PMID:17116116

Emotional attentional control predicts changes in diurnal cortisol secretion following exposure to a prolonged psychosocial stressor.

PubMed

Lenaert, Bert; Barry, Tom J; Schruers, Koen; Vervliet, Bram; Hermans, Dirk

2016-01-01

Hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis irregularities have been associated with several psychological disorders. Hence, the identification of individual difference variables that predict variations in HPA-axis activity represents an important challenge for psychiatric research. We investigated whether self-reported attentional control in emotionally demanding situations prospectively predicted changes in diurnal salivary cortisol secretion following exposure to a prolonged psychosocial stressor. Low ability to voluntarily control attention has previously been associated with anxiety and depressive symptomatology. Attentional control was assessed using the Emotional Attentional Control Scale. In students who were preparing for academic examination, salivary cortisol was assessed before (time 1) and after (time 2) examination. Results showed that lower levels of self-reported emotional attentional control at time 1 (N=90) predicted higher absolute diurnal cortisol secretion and a slower decline in cortisol throughout the day at time 2 (N=71). Difficulty controlling attention during emotional experiences may lead to chronic HPA-axis hyperactivity after prolonged exposure to stress. These results indicate that screening for individual differences may foster prediction of HPA-axis disturbances, paving the way for targeted disorder prevention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Migration phenology and breeding success are predicted by methylation of a photoperiodic gene in the barn swallow

PubMed Central

Saino, Nicola; Ambrosini, Roberto; Albetti, Benedetta; Caprioli, Manuela; De Giorgio, Barbara; Gatti, Emanuele; Liechti, Felix; Parolini, Marco; Romano, Andrea; Romano, Maria; Scandolara, Chiara; Gianfranceschi, Luca; Bollati, Valentina; Rubolini, Diego

2017-01-01

Individuals often considerably differ in the timing of their life-cycle events, with major consequences for individual fitness, and, ultimately, for population dynamics. Phenological variation can arise from genetic effects but also from epigenetic modifications in DNA expression and translation. Here, we tested if CpG methylation at the poly-Q and 5′-UTR loci of the photoperiodic Clock gene predicted migration and breeding phenology of long-distance migratory barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) that were tracked year-round using light-level geolocators. Increasing methylation at Clock poly-Q was associated with earlier spring departure from the African wintering area, arrival date at the European breeding site, and breeding date. Higher methylation levels also predicted increased breeding success. Thus, we showed for the first time in any species that CpG methylation at a candidate gene may affect phenology and breeding performance. Methylation at Clock may be a candidate mechanism mediating phenological responses of migratory birds to ongoing climate change. PMID:28361883

Towards collaborative filtering recommender systems for tailored health communications.

PubMed

Marlin, Benjamin M; Adams, Roy J; Sadasivam, Rajani; Houston, Thomas K

2013-01-01

The goal of computer tailored health communications (CTHC) is to promote healthy behaviors by sending messages tailored to individual patients. Current CTHC systems collect baseline patient "profiles" and then use expert-written, rule-based systems to target messages to subsets of patients. Our main interest in this work is the study of collaborative filtering-based CTHC systems that can learn to tailor future message selections to individual patients based explicit feedback about past message selections. This paper reports the results of a study designed to collect explicit feedback (ratings) regarding four aspects of messages from 100 subjects in the smoking cessation support domain. Our results show that most users have positive opinions of most messages and that the ratings for all four aspects of the messages are highly correlated with each other. Finally, we conduct a range of rating prediction experiments comparing several different model variations. Our results show that predicting future ratings based on each user's past ratings contributes the most to predictive accuracy.

Towards Collaborative Filtering Recommender Systems for Tailored Health Communications

PubMed Central

Marlin, Benjamin M.; Adams, Roy J.; Sadasivam, Rajani; Houston, Thomas K.

2013-01-01

The goal of computer tailored health communications (CTHC) is to promote healthy behaviors by sending messages tailored to individual patients. Current CTHC systems collect baseline patient “profiles” and then use expert-written, rule-based systems to target messages to subsets of patients. Our main interest in this work is the study of collaborative filtering-based CTHC systems that can learn to tailor future message selections to individual patients based explicit feedback about past message selections. This paper reports the results of a study designed to collect explicit feedback (ratings) regarding four aspects of messages from 100 subjects in the smoking cessation support domain. Our results show that most users have positive opinions of most messages and that the ratings for all four aspects of the messages are highly correlated with each other. Finally, we conduct a range of rating prediction experiments comparing several different model variations. Our results show that predicting future ratings based on each user’s past ratings contributes the most to predictive accuracy. PMID:24551430

Idiosyncratic species effects confound size-based predictions of responses to climate change.

PubMed

Twomey, Marion; Brodte, Eva; Jacob, Ute; Brose, Ulrich; Crowe, Tasman P; Emmerson, Mark C

2012-11-05

Understanding and predicting the consequences of warming for complex ecosystems and indeed individual species remains a major ecological challenge. Here, we investigated the effect of increased seawater temperatures on the metabolic and consumption rates of five distinct marine species. The experimental species reflected different trophic positions within a typical benthic East Atlantic food web, and included a herbivorous gastropod, a scavenging decapod, a predatory echinoderm, a decapod and a benthic-feeding fish. We examined the metabolism-body mass and consumption-body mass scaling for each species, and assessed changes in their consumption efficiencies. Our results indicate that body mass and temperature effects on metabolism were inconsistent across species and that some species were unable to meet metabolic demand at higher temperatures, thus highlighting the vulnerability of individual species to warming. While body size explains a large proportion of the variation in species' physiological responses to warming, it is clear that idiosyncratic species responses, irrespective of body size, complicate predictions of population and ecosystem level response to future scenarios of climate change.

Migration phenology and breeding success are predicted by methylation of a photoperiodic gene in the barn swallow.

PubMed

Saino, Nicola; Ambrosini, Roberto; Albetti, Benedetta; Caprioli, Manuela; De Giorgio, Barbara; Gatti, Emanuele; Liechti, Felix; Parolini, Marco; Romano, Andrea; Romano, Maria; Scandolara, Chiara; Gianfranceschi, Luca; Bollati, Valentina; Rubolini, Diego

2017-03-31

Individuals often considerably differ in the timing of their life-cycle events, with major consequences for individual fitness, and, ultimately, for population dynamics. Phenological variation can arise from genetic effects but also from epigenetic modifications in DNA expression and translation. Here, we tested if CpG methylation at the poly-Q and 5'-UTR loci of the photoperiodic Clock gene predicted migration and breeding phenology of long-distance migratory barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) that were tracked year-round using light-level geolocators. Increasing methylation at Clock poly-Q was associated with earlier spring departure from the African wintering area, arrival date at the European breeding site, and breeding date. Higher methylation levels also predicted increased breeding success. Thus, we showed for the first time in any species that CpG methylation at a candidate gene may affect phenology and breeding performance. Methylation at Clock may be a candidate mechanism mediating phenological responses of migratory birds to ongoing climate change.

The Genetic Basis for Variation in Sensitivity to Lead Toxicity in Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Zhou, Shanshan; Morozova, Tatiana V; Hussain, Yasmeen N; Luoma, Sarah E; McCoy, Lenovia; Yamamoto, Akihiko; Mackay, Trudy F C; Anholt, Robert R H

2016-07-01

Lead toxicity presents a worldwide health problem, especially due to its adverse effects on cognitive development in children. However, identifying genes that give rise to individual variation in susceptibility to lead toxicity is challenging in human populations. Our goal was to use Drosophila melanogaster to identify evolutionarily conserved candidate genes associated with individual variation in susceptibility to lead exposure. To identify candidate genes associated with variation in susceptibility to lead toxicity, we measured effects of lead exposure on development time, viability and adult activity in the Drosophila melanogaster Genetic Reference Panel (DGRP) and performed genome-wide association analyses to identify candidate genes. We used mutants to assess functional causality of candidate genes and constructed a genetic network associated with variation in sensitivity to lead exposure, on which we could superimpose human orthologs. We found substantial heritabilities for all three traits and identified candidate genes associated with variation in susceptibility to lead exposure for each phenotype. The genetic architectures that determine variation in sensitivity to lead exposure are highly polygenic. Gene ontology and network analyses showed enrichment of genes associated with early development and function of the nervous system. Drosophila melanogaster presents an advantageous model to study the genetic underpinnings of variation in susceptibility to lead toxicity. Evolutionary conservation of cellular pathways that respond to toxic exposure allows predictions regarding orthologous genes and pathways across phyla. Thus, studies in the D. melanogaster model system can identify candidate susceptibility genes to guide subsequent studies in human populations. Zhou S, Morozova TV, Hussain YN, Luoma SE, McCoy L, Yamamoto A, Mackay TF, Anholt RR. 2016. The genetic basis for variation in sensitivity to lead toxicity in Drosophila melanogaster. Environ Health Perspect 124:1062-1070; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1510513.

Variability of annoyance response due to aircraft noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dempsey, T. K.; Cawthorn, J. M.

1979-01-01

An investigation was conducted to study the variability in the response of subjects participating in noise experiments. This paper presents a description of a model developed to include this variability which incorporates an aircraft-noise adaptation level or an annoyance calibration for each individual. The results indicate that the use of an aircraft-noise adaption level improved prediction accuracy of annoyance responses (and simultaneously reduced response variation).

Dissection of complex adult traits in a mouse synthetic population.

PubMed

Burke, David T; Kozloff, Kenneth M; Chen, Shu; West, Joshua L; Wilkowski, Jodi M; Goldstein, Steven A; Miller, Richard A; Galecki, Andrzej T

2012-08-01

Finding the causative genetic variations that underlie complex adult traits is a significant experimental challenge. The unbiased search strategy of genome-wide association (GWAS) has been used extensively in recent human population studies. These efforts, however, typically find only a minor fraction of the genetic loci that are predicted to affect variation. As an experimental model for the analysis of adult polygenic traits, we measured a mouse population for multiple phenotypes and conducted a genome-wide search for effector loci. Complex adult phenotypes, related to body size and bone structure, were measured as component phenotypes, and each subphenotype was associated with a genomic spectrum of candidate effector loci. The strategy successfully detected several loci for the phenotypes, at genome-wide significance, using a single, modest-sized population (N = 505). The effector loci each explain 2%-10% of the measured trait variation and, taken together, the loci can account for over 25% of a trait's total population variation. A replicate population (N = 378) was used to confirm initially observed loci for one trait (femur length), and, when the two groups were merged, the combined population demonstrated increased power to detect loci. In contrast to human population studies, our mouse genome-wide searches find loci that individually explain a larger fraction of the observed variation. Also, the additive effects of our detected mouse loci more closely match the predicted genetic component of variation. The genetic loci discovered are logical candidates for components of the genetic networks having evolutionary conservation with human biology.

Emergence of intercolonial variation in termite shelter tube patterns and prediction of its underlying mechanism

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Building behaviours occur in various organisms from bacteria to humans. Social insects build various structures such as large nests and underground galleries, achieved by self-organization. Structures built by social insects have recently been demonstrated to vary widely in size and shape within a species, even under the same environmental conditions. However, little is known about how intraspecific variation in structures emerges from collective behaviours. Here we show that the colony variation of structures can be generated by simply changing two behavioural parameters of group members, even with the same building algorithm. Our laboratory experiment of termite shelter tube construction demonstrated clear intercolonial variation, and a two-dimensional lattice model showed that it can be attributed to the extent of positive feedback and the number of individuals engaged in building. This study contributes to explaining the great diversity of structures emerging from collective building in social insects. PMID:26715997

Schooling and variation in the COMT gene: the devil is in the details.

PubMed

Campbell, Daniel; Bick, Johanna; Yrigollen, Carolyn M; Lee, Maria; Joseph, Antony; Chang, Joseph T; Grigorenko, Elena L

2013-10-01

Schooling is considered one of the major contributors to the development of intelligence within societies and individuals. Genetic variation might modulate the impact of schooling and explain, at least partially, the presence of individual differences in classrooms. We studied a sample of 1,502 children (mean age = 11.7 years) from Zambia. Approximately 57% of these children were enrolled in school, and the rest were not. To quantify genetic variation, we investigated a number of common polymorphisms in the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) gene that controls the production of the protein thought to account for >60% of the dopamine degradation in the prefrontal cortex. Haplotype analyses generated results ranging from the presence to absence of significant interactions between a number of COMT haplotypes and indicators of schooling (i.e., in- vs. out-of-school and grade completed) in the prediction of nonverbal intelligence, depending on the parameter specification. However, an investigation of the distribution of corresponding p-values suggested that these positive results were false. Convincing evidence that the variation in the COMT gene is associated with individual differences in nonverbal intelligence either directly or through interactions with schooling was not found. p-values produced by the method of testing for haplotype effects employed here may be sensitive to parameter settings, invalid under default settings, and should be checked for validity through simulation. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2013 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Melanopsin gene variations interact with season to predict sleep onset and chronotype.

PubMed

Roecklein, Kathryn A; Wong, Patricia M; Franzen, Peter L; Hasler, Brant P; Wood-Vasey, W Michael; Nimgaonkar, Vishwajit L; Miller, Megan A; Kepreos, Kyle M; Ferrell, Robert E; Manuck, Stephen B

2012-10-01

The human melanopsin gene has been reported to mediate risk for seasonal affective disorder (SAD), which is hypothesized to be caused by decreased photic input during winter when light levels fall below threshold, resulting in differences in circadian phase and/or sleep. However, it is unclear if melanopsin increases risk of SAD by causing differences in sleep or circadian phase, or if those differences are symptoms of the mood disorder. To determine if melanopsin sequence variations are associated with differences in sleep-wake behavior among those not suffering from a mood disorder, the authors tested associations between melanopsin gene polymorphisms and self-reported sleep timing (sleep onset and wake time) in a community sample (N = 234) of non-Hispanic Caucasian participants (age 30-54 yrs) with no history of psychological, neurological, or sleep disorders. The authors also tested the effect of melanopsin variations on differences in preferred sleep and activity timing (i.e., chronotype), which may reflect differences in circadian phase, sleep homeostasis, or both. Daylength on the day of assessment was measured and included in analyses. DNA samples were genotyped for melanopsin gene polymorphisms using fluorescence polarization. P10L genotype interacted with daylength to predict self-reported sleep onset (interaction p < .05). Specifically, sleep onset among those with the TT genotype was later in the day when individuals were assessed on longer days and earlier in the day on shorter days, whereas individuals in the other genotype groups (i.e., CC and CT) did not show this interaction effect. P10L genotype also interacted in an analogous way with daylength to predict self-reported morningness (interaction p < .05). These results suggest that the P10L TT genotype interacts with daylength to predispose individuals to vary in sleep onset and chronotype as a function of daylength, whereas other genotypes at P10L do not seem to have effects that vary by daylength. A better understanding of how melanopsin confers heightened responsivity to daylength may improve our understanding of a broad range of behavioral responses to light (i.e., circadian, sleep, mood) as well as the etiology of disorders with seasonal patterns of recurrence or exacerbation.

Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Christoffersen, Bradley O.; Gloor, Manuel; Fauset, Sophie

Forest ecosystem models based on heuristic water stress functions poorly predict tropical forest response to drought partly because they do not capture the diversity of hydraulic traits (including variation in tree size) observed in tropical forests. We developed a continuous porous media approach to modeling plant hydraulics in which all parameters of the constitutive equations are biologically interpretable and measurable plant hydraulic traits (e.g., turgor loss point π tlp, bulk elastic modulus ε, hydraulic capacitance C ft, xylem hydraulic conductivity k s,max, water potential at 50 % loss of conductivity for both xylem ( P 50,x) and stomata ( Pmore » 50,gs), and the leaf : sapwood area ratio A l: A s). We embedded this plant hydraulics model within a trait forest simulator (TFS) that models light environments of individual trees and their upper boundary conditions (transpiration), as well as providing a means for parameterizing variation in hydraulic traits among individuals. We synthesized literature and existing databases to parameterize all hydraulic traits as a function of stem and leaf traits, including wood density (WD), leaf mass per area (LMA), and photosynthetic capacity ( A max ), and evaluated the coupled model (called TFS v.1-Hydro) predictions, against observed diurnal and seasonal variability in stem and leaf water potential as well as stand-scaled sap flux. Our hydraulic trait synthesis revealed coordination among leaf and xylem hydraulic traits and statistically significant relationships of most hydraulic traits with more easily measured plant traits. Using the most informative empirical trait–trait relationships derived from this synthesis, TFS v.1-Hydro successfully captured individual variation in leaf and stem water potential due to increasing tree size and light environment, with model representation of hydraulic architecture and plant traits exerting primary and secondary controls, respectively, on the fidelity of model predictions. The plant hydraulics model made substantial improvements to simulations of total ecosystem transpiration. As a result, remaining uncertainties and limitations of the trait paradigm for plant hydraulics modeling are highlighted.« less

Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro)

DOE PAGES

Christoffersen, Bradley O.; Gloor, Manuel; Fauset, Sophie; ...

2016-11-24

Forest ecosystem models based on heuristic water stress functions poorly predict tropical forest response to drought partly because they do not capture the diversity of hydraulic traits (including variation in tree size) observed in tropical forests. We developed a continuous porous media approach to modeling plant hydraulics in which all parameters of the constitutive equations are biologically interpretable and measurable plant hydraulic traits (e.g., turgor loss point π tlp, bulk elastic modulus ε, hydraulic capacitance C ft, xylem hydraulic conductivity k s,max, water potential at 50 % loss of conductivity for both xylem ( P 50,x) and stomata ( Pmore » 50,gs), and the leaf : sapwood area ratio A l: A s). We embedded this plant hydraulics model within a trait forest simulator (TFS) that models light environments of individual trees and their upper boundary conditions (transpiration), as well as providing a means for parameterizing variation in hydraulic traits among individuals. We synthesized literature and existing databases to parameterize all hydraulic traits as a function of stem and leaf traits, including wood density (WD), leaf mass per area (LMA), and photosynthetic capacity ( A max ), and evaluated the coupled model (called TFS v.1-Hydro) predictions, against observed diurnal and seasonal variability in stem and leaf water potential as well as stand-scaled sap flux. Our hydraulic trait synthesis revealed coordination among leaf and xylem hydraulic traits and statistically significant relationships of most hydraulic traits with more easily measured plant traits. Using the most informative empirical trait–trait relationships derived from this synthesis, TFS v.1-Hydro successfully captured individual variation in leaf and stem water potential due to increasing tree size and light environment, with model representation of hydraulic architecture and plant traits exerting primary and secondary controls, respectively, on the fidelity of model predictions. The plant hydraulics model made substantial improvements to simulations of total ecosystem transpiration. As a result, remaining uncertainties and limitations of the trait paradigm for plant hydraulics modeling are highlighted.« less

Cultural variation in the use of current life satisfaction to predict the future.

PubMed

Oishi, S; Wyer, R S; Colcombe, S J

2000-03-01

Three studies examined cultural and situational influences on the tendency for people to use their current life satisfaction to predict future life events. On the basis of the self-enhancement literature, it was predicted that either writing about a positive personal experience or reading about another's negative experience would lead European Americans to focus their attention on internal attributes and thus would lead them to use their current life satisfaction in predicting the future. Conversely, on the basis of the self-criticism literature, it was predicted that these same conditions would lead Asian Americans to focus their attention on external factors and, therefore, would decrease their likelihood of using their current life satisfaction to predict the future. Studies 1 and 2 supported these hypotheses. Study 3 showed that these patterns could be obtained by subliminally priming concepts associated with individualism and collectivism.

Ecological drivers of group living in two populations of the communally rearing rodent, Octodon degus

PubMed Central

Sobrero, Raúl; Quirici, Verónica; Castro, Rodrigo A.; Tolhuysen, Liliana Ortiz; Vargas, Francisco; Burger, Joseph Robert; Quispe, René; Villavicencio, Camila P.; Vásquez, Rodrigo A.; Hayes, Loren D.

2012-01-01

Intraspecific variation in sociality is thought to reflect a trade-off between current fitness benefits and costs that emerge from individuals' decision to join or leave groups. Since those benefits and costs may be influenced by ecological conditions, ecological variation remains a major, ultimate cause of intraspecific variation in sociality. Intraspecific comparisons of mammalian sociality across populations facing different environmental conditions have not provided a consistent relationship between ecological variation and group-living. Thus, we studied two populations of the communally rearing rodent Octodon degus to determine how co-variation between sociality and ecology supports alternative ecological causes of group living. In particular, we examined how variables linked to predation risk, thermal conditions, burrowing costs, and food availability predicted temporal and population variation in sociality. Our study revealed population and temporal variation in total group size and group composition that covaried with population and yearly differences in ecology. In particular, predation risk and burrowing costs are supported as drivers of this social variation in degus. Thermal differences, food quantity and quality were not significant predictors of social group size. In contrast to between populations, social variation within populations was largely uncoupled from ecological differences. PMID:22344477

Educational Barriers of Rural Youth: Relation of Individual and Contextual Difference Variables

PubMed Central

Irvin, Matthew J.; Byun, Soo-yong; Meece, Judith L.; Farmer, Thomas W.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the relation of several individual and contextual difference factors to the perceived educational barriers of rural youth. Data were from a broader national investigation of students’ postsecondary aspirations and preparation in rural high schools across the United States. The sample involved more than 7,000 rural youth in 73 high schools across 34 states. Results indicated that some individual (e.g., African American race/ethnicity) and contextual (e.g., parent education) difference factors were predictive while others were not. Extensions to, similarities, and variations with previous research are discussed. Implications, limitations, and suggestions for future research are also discussed. PMID:24474843

Sexual selection and physical attractiveness : Implications for mating dynamics.

PubMed

Gangestad, S W

1993-09-01

Sexual selection processes have received much attention in recent years, attention reflected in interest in human mate preferences. Among these mate preferences are preferences for physical attractiveness. Preferences in and of themselves, however, do not fully explain the nature of the relationships that individuals attain. A tacit negotiation process underlies relationship formation and maintenance. The notion that preferences for physical attractiveness evolved under parasite-driven "good genes" sexual selection leads to predictions about the nature of trade-offs that individuals make between mates' physical attractiveness and investment potential. These predictions and relevant data are explored, with a primary emphasis on women's preferences for men's qualities. In addition, further implications of trade-offs are examined, most notably (a) the impact of environmental variations on the nature of mating and (b) some effects of trade-offs on infidelity and male attempts to control women.

Reinforcing loose foundation stones in trait-based plant ecology.

PubMed

Shipley, Bill; De Bello, Francesco; Cornelissen, J Hans C; Laliberté, Etienne; Laughlin, Daniel C; Reich, Peter B

2016-04-01

The promise of "trait-based" plant ecology is one of generalized prediction across organizational and spatial scales, independent of taxonomy. This promise is a major reason for the increased popularity of this approach. Here, we argue that some important foundational assumptions of trait-based ecology have not received sufficient empirical evaluation. We identify three such assumptions and, where possible, suggest methods of improvement: (i) traits are functional to the degree that they determine individual fitness, (ii) intraspecific variation in functional traits can be largely ignored, and (iii) functional traits show general predictive relationships to measurable environmental gradients.

Nature and nurture in the family physician's choice of practice location.

PubMed

Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Lovato, Chris; Bates, Joanna; Slade, Steve; Grand'Maison, Paul; Vanasse, Alain

2011-01-01

An understanding of the contextual, professional, and personal factors that affect choice of practice location for physicians is needed to support successful strategies in addressing geographic maldistribution of physicians. This study compared two categories of predictors of family practice location in non-metropolitan areas among undergraduate medical students: individual characteristics (nature), and the rural program component of their training program (nurture). The study aimed to identify factors that predict the location of practice 2 years post-residency training and determine the predictive value of combining nature and nurture variables using administrative data from two undergraduate medical education programs. Databases were developed from available administrative sources for a retrospective analysis of two undergraduate medical education programs in Canada: Université de Sherbrooke (UdeS) and University of British Columbia (UBC). Both schools have a strong mandate to evaluate the impact of their programs on physician distribution. The dependent variable was location of practice 2 years after completing postgraduate training in family medicine. Independent variables included individual and program characteristics. Separate analyses were conducted for each program using multiple logistic regression. The nature and nurture variables considered in the models explained only 21% to 27% of the variance in the eventual location of practice of family physician graduates. For UdeS, having an address in a rural/small-town environment at application to medical school (OR=2.61, 95% CI: 1.24-6.06) and for UBC, location of high school in a rural/small town (OR=4.03, 95% CI: 1.05-15.41), both increased the chances of practicing in a non-metropolitan area. For UdeS the nurture variable (ie length of clerkship in a non-metropolitan area) was the most significant predictor (OR=1.14, 95% CI: 1.067-1.22). For both medical schools, adding a single nurture variable to the model using only nature variables significantly increased the amount of variation accounted for in predicting location of practice in non-metropolitan areas. Aspects of graduates' rural background increase the chances of practicing in a non-metropolitan area. A third-year clerkship experience in a rural area may increase the chances of non-metropolitan practice. Although the total variation predicted by both nature and nurture variables in this study was small, adding a nurture variable significantly improves the prediction of individuals who will practice in a non-metropolitan area. The fact that total variation predicted was small is likely to be due to the limitations of the administrative databases used. Different strategies are being implemented in each university to improve the quality of existing administrative databases, as well as to collect relevant data about intent-to-practice, training characteristics, and the attitudes, beliefs and backgrounds of students.

Predictors of variation in serum IGF1 and IGFBP3 levels in healthy African American and white men.

PubMed

Hoyo, Cathrine; Grubber, Janet; Demark-Wahnefried, Wendy; Lobaugh, Bruce; Jeffreys, Amy S; Grambow, Steven C; Marks, Jeffrey R; Keku, Temitope O; Walther, Phillip J; Schildkraut, Joellen M

2009-07-01

Individual variation in circulating insulinlike growth factor-1 (IGF1) and its major binding protein, insulinlike growth factor binding protein-3 (IGFBP3), have been etiologically linked to several chronic diseases, including some cancers. Factors associated with variation in circulating levels of these peptide hormones remain unclear. Multiple linear regression models were used to determine the extent to which sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, personal and family history of chronic disease, and common genetic variants, the (CA)n repeat polymorphism in the IGF1 promoter and the IGFBP3-202 A/C polymorphism (rs2854744) predict variation in IGF1 or IGFBP3 serum levels in 33 otherwise healthy African American and 37 white males recruited from Durham Veterans Administration Medical Center. Predictors of serum IGF1, IGFBP3, and the IGF1:IGFBP3 molar ratio varied by race. In African Americans, 17% and 28% of the variation in serum IGF1 and the IGF1:IGFBP3 molar ratio, were explained by cigarette smoking and carrying the IGF1 (CA)19 repeat allele, respectively. Not carrying at least 1 IGF1 (CA)19 repeat allele and a high body mass index explained 8% and 14%, respectively, of the variation IGFBP3 levels. These factors did not predict variation of these peptides in whites. If successfully replicated in larger studies, these findings would add to recent evidence, suggesting known genetic and lifestyle chronic disease risk factors influence IGF1 and IGFBP3 circulating levels differently in African Americans and whites.

Predictors of variation in serum IGFI and IGFBP3 levels in healthy African-American and white men

PubMed Central

Grubber, Janet; Demark-Wahnefried, Wendy; Lobaugh, Bruce; Jeffreys, Amy S.; Grambow, Steven C.; Marks, Jeffrey R.; Keku, Temitope O.; Walther, Phillip J.; Schildkraut, Joellen M.

2010-01-01

Background Individual variation in circulating insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF1) and its major binding protein, insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 (IGFBP3) have been etiologically linked to several chronic diseases, including some cancers. Factors associated with variation in circulating levels of these peptide hormones remain unclear. Methods Multiple linear regression models were used to determine the extent to which socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, personal and family history of chronic disease, and common genetic variants, the (CA)n repeat polymorphism in the IGF1 promoter and the IGFBP3 -202 A/C polymorphism (rs2854744) predict variation in IGF1 or IGFBP3 serum levels in 33 otherwise healthy African American and 37 white males recruited from Durham Veterans Administration Medical Center. Results Predictors of serum IGF1, IGFBP3 and the IGF1:IGFBP3 molar ratio varied by race. In African Americans, 17% and 28% of the variation in serum IGF1 and the IGF1:IGFBP3 molar ratio, respectively, was explained by cigarette smoking and carrying the IGF1 (CA)19 repeat allele, respectively. Not carrying at least one IGF1 (CA)19 repeat allele and a high BMI explained 8% and 14%, respectively, of the variation IGFBP3 levels. These factors did not predict variation of these peptides in whites. Conclusion If successfully replicated in larger studies, these findings add to recent evidence suggesting known genetic and lifestyle chronic disease risk factors influence IGF1 and IGFBP3 circulating levels differently in African Americans and whites. PMID:19634593

Bird-landscape relations in the Chihuahuan Desert: Coping with uncertainties about predictive models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutzwiller, K.J.; Barrow, W.C.

2001-01-01

During the springs of 1995-1997, we studied birds and landscapes in the Chihuahuan Desert along part of the Texas-Mexico border. Our objectives were to assess bird-landscape relations and their interannual consistency and to identify ways to cope with associated uncertainties that undermine confidence in using such relations in conservation decision processes. Bird distributions were often significantly associated with landscape features, and many bird-landscape models were valid and useful for predictive purposes. Differences in early spring rainfall appeared to influence bird abundance, but there was no evidence that annual differences in bird abundance affected model consistency. Model consistency for richness (42%) was higher than mean model consistency for 26 focal species (mean 30%, range 0-67%), suggesting that relations involving individual species are, on average, more subject to factors that cause variation than are richness-landscape relations. Consistency of bird-landscape relations may be influenced by such factors as plant succession, exotic species invasion, bird species' tolerances for environmental variation, habitat occupancy patterns, and variation in food density or weather. The low model consistency that we observed for most species indicates the high variation in bird-landscape relations that managers and other decision makers may encounter. The uncertainty of interannual variation in bird-landscape relations can be reduced by using projections of bird distributions from different annual models to determine the likely range of temporal and spatial variation in a species' distribution. Stochastic simulation models can be used to incorporate the uncertainty of random environmental variation into predictions of bird distributions based on bird-landscape relations and to provide probabilistic projections with which managers can weigh the costs and benefits of various decisions, Uncertainty about the true structure of bird-landscape relations (structural uncertainty) can be reduced by ensuring that models meet important statistical assumptions, designing studies with sufficient statistical power, validating the predictive ability of models, and improving model accuracy through continued field sampling and model fitting. Un certainty associated with sampling variation (partial observability) can be reduced by ensuring that sample sizes are large enough to provide precise estimates of both bird and landscape parameters. By decreasing the uncertainty due to partial observability, managers will improve their ability to reduce structural uncertainty.

Global and disease-associated genetic variation in the human Fanconi anemia gene family

PubMed Central

Rogers, Kai J.; Fu, Wenqing; Akey, Joshua M.; Monnat, Raymond J.

2014-01-01

Fanconi anemia (FA) is a human recessive genetic disease resulting from inactivating mutations in any of 16 FANC (Fanconi) genes. Individuals with FA are at high risk of developmental abnormalities, early bone marrow failure and leukemia. These are followed in the second and subsequent decades by a very high risk of carcinomas of the head and neck and anogenital region, and a small continuing risk of leukemia. In order to characterize base pair-level disease-associated (DA) and population genetic variation in FANC genes and the segregation of this variation in the human population, we identified 2948 unique FANC gene variants including 493 FA DA variants across 57 240 potential base pair variation sites in the 16 FANC genes. We then analyzed the segregation of this variation in the 7578 subjects included in the Exome Sequencing Project (ESP) and the 1000 Genomes Project (1KGP). There was a remarkably high frequency of FA DA variants in ESP/1KGP subjects: at least 1 FA DA variant was identified in 78.5% (5950 of 7578) individuals included in these two studies. Six widely used functional prediction algorithms correctly identified only a third of the known, DA FANC missense variants. We also identified FA DA variants that may be good candidates for different types of mutation-specific therapies. Our results demonstrate the power of direct DNA sequencing to detect, estimate the frequency of and follow the segregation of deleterious genetic variation in human populations. PMID:25104853

Genetic variation in social environment construction influences the development of aggressive behavior in Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Saltz, J B

2017-01-01

Individuals are not merely subject to their social environments; they choose and create them, through a process called social environment (or social niche) construction. When genotypes differ in social environment-constructing behaviors, different genotypes are expected to experience different social environments. As social experience often affects behavioral development, quantitative genetics and psychology theories predict that genetic variation in social environment construction should have an important role in determining phenotypic variation; however, this hypothesis has not been tested directly. I identify multiple mechanisms of social environment construction that differ among natural genotypes of Drosophila melanogaster and investigate their consequences for the development of aggressive behavior. Male genotypes differed in the group sizes that they preferred and in their aggressive behavior; both of these behaviors influenced social experience, demonstrating that these behaviors function as social environment-constructing traits. Further, the effects of social experience—as determined in part by social environment construction—carried over to affect focal male aggression at a later time and with a new opponent. These results provide manipulative experimental support for longstanding hypotheses in psychology, that genetic variation in social environment construction has a causal role in behavioral development. More broadly, these results imply that studies of the genetic basis of complex traits should be expanded to include mechanisms by which genetic variation shapes the environments that individuals experience. PMID:27848947

Air-mediated pollen flow from genetically modified to conventional crops.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Schurr, Frank; Tackenberg, Oliver; O'Hara, Robert B

2007-03-01

Tools for estimating pollen dispersal and the resulting gene flow are necessary to assess the risk of gene flow from genetically modified (GM) to conventional fields, and to quantify the effectiveness of measures that may prevent such gene flow. A mechanistic simulation model is presented and used to simulate pollen dispersal by wind in different agricultural scenarios over realistic pollination periods. The relative importance of landscape-related variables such as isolation distance, topography, spatial configuration of the fields, GM field size and barrier, and environmental variation are examined in order to find ways to minimize gene flow and to detect possible risk factors. The simulations demonstrated a large variation in pollen dispersal and in the predicted amount of contamination between different pollination periods. This was largely due to variation in vertical wind. As this variation in wind conditions is difficult to control through management measures, it should be carefully considered when estimating the risk of gene flow from GM crops. On average, the predicted level of gene flow decreased with increasing isolation distance and with increasing depth of the conventional field, and increased with increasing GM field size. Therefore, at a national scale and over the long term these landscape properties should be accounted for when setting regulations for controlling gene flow. However, at the level of an individual field the level of gene flow may be dominated by uncontrollable variation. Due to the sensitivity of pollen dispersal to the wind, we conclude that gene flow cannot be summarized only by the mean contamination; information about the frequency of extreme events should also be considered. The modeling approach described in this paper offers a way to predict and compare pollen dispersal and gene flow in varying environmental conditions, and to assess the effectiveness of different management measures.

A locus coeruleus-norepinephrine account of individual differences in working memory capacity and attention control.

PubMed

Unsworth, Nash; Robison, Matthew K

2017-08-01

Studies examining individual differences in working memory capacity (WMC) have suggested that low WMC individuals have particular deficits in attention control processes compared to high WMC individuals. In the current article we suggest that part of the WMC-attention control relation is due to variation in the functioning of the locus coeruleus-norepinephrine system (LC-NE). Specifically, we suggest that because of dysregulation of LC-NE functioning, the fronto-parietal control network for low WMC individuals is only weakly activated, resulting in greater default-mode network activity (and greater mind-wandering) for low WMC individuals compared to high WMC individuals. This results in disrupted attention control and overall more erratic performance (more lapses of attention) for low WMC individuals than for high WMC individuals. This framework is used to examine previous studies of individual differences in WMC and attention control, and new evidence is examined on the basis of predictions of the framework to pupillary responses as an indirect marker of LC-NE functioning.

What Happens after Inbreeding Avoidance? Inbreeding by Rejected Relatives and the Inclusive Fitness Benefit of Inbreeding Avoidance

PubMed Central

Duthie, A. Bradley; Reid, Jane M.

2015-01-01

Avoiding inbreeding, and therefore avoiding inbreeding depression in offspring fitness, is widely assumed to be adaptive in systems with biparental reproduction. However, inbreeding can also confer an inclusive fitness benefit stemming from increased relatedness between parents and inbred offspring. Whether or not inbreeding or avoiding inbreeding is adaptive therefore depends on a balance between inbreeding depression and increased parent-offspring relatedness. Existing models of biparental inbreeding predict threshold values of inbreeding depression above which males and females should avoid inbreeding, and predict sexual conflict over inbreeding because these thresholds diverge. However, these models implicitly assume that if a focal individual avoids inbreeding, then both it and its rejected relative will subsequently outbreed. We show that relaxing this assumption of reciprocal outbreeding, and the assumption that focal individuals are themselves outbred, can substantially alter the predicted thresholds for inbreeding avoidance for focal males. Specifically, the magnitude of inbreeding depression below which inbreeding increases a focal male’s inclusive fitness increases with increasing depression in the offspring of a focal female and her alternative mate, and it decreases with increasing relatedness between a focal male and a focal female’s alternative mate, thereby altering the predicted zone of sexual conflict. Furthermore, a focal male’s inclusive fitness gain from avoiding inbreeding is reduced by indirect opportunity costs if his rejected relative breeds with another relative of his. By demonstrating that variation in relatedness and inbreeding can affect intra- and inter-sexual conflict over inbreeding, our models lead to novel predictions for family dynamics. Specifically, parent-offspring conflict over inbreeding might depend on the alternative mates of rejected relatives, and male-male competition over inbreeding might lead to mixed inbreeding strategies. Making testable quantitative predictions regarding inbreeding strategies occurring in nature will therefore require new models that explicitly capture variation in relatedness and inbreeding among interacting population members. PMID:25909185

Clinical utility of therapeutic drug monitoring in biological disease modifying anti-rheumatic drug treatment of rheumatic disorders: a systematic narrative review.

PubMed

Van Herwaarden, Noortje; Van Den Bemt, Bart J F; Wientjes, Maike H M; Kramers, Cornelis; Den Broeder, Alfons A

2017-08-01

Biological Disease Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drugs (bDMARDs) have improved the treatment outcomes of inflammatory rheumatic diseases including Rheumatoid Arthritis and spondyloarthropathies. Inter-individual variation exists in (maintenance of) response to bDMARDs. Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (TDM) of bDMARDs could potentially help in optimizing treatment for the individual patient. Areas covered: Evidence of clinical utility of TDM in bDMARD treatment is reviewed. Different clinical scenarios will be discussed, including: prediction of response after start of treatment, prediction of response to a next bDMARD in case of treatment failure of the first, prediction of successful dose reduction or discontinuation in case of low disease activity, prediction of response to dose-escalation in case of active disease and prediction of response to bDMARD in case of flare in disease activity. Expert opinion: The limited available evidence does often not report important outcomes for diagnostic studies, such as sensitivity and specificity. In most clinical relevant scenarios, predictive value of serum (anti-) drug levels is absent, therefore the use of TDM of bDMARDs cannot be advocated. Well-designed prospective studies should be done to further investigate the promising scenarios to determine the place of TDM in clinical practice.

Personality Polygenes, Positive Affect, and Life Satisfaction

PubMed Central

Weiss, Alexander; Baselmans, Bart M. L.; Hofer, Edith; Yang, Jingyun; Okbay, Aysu; Lind, Penelope A.; Miller, Mike B.; Nolte, Ilja M.; Zhao, Wei; Hagenaars, Saskia P.; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Matteson, Lindsay K.; Snieder, Harold; Faul, Jessica D.; Hartman, Catharina A.; Boyle, Patricia A.; Tiemeier, Henning; Mosing, Miriam A.; Pattie, Alison; Davies, Gail; Liewald, David C.; Schmidt, Reinhold; De Jager, Philip L.; Heath, Andrew C.; Jokela, Markus; Starr, John M.; Oldehinkel, Albertine J.; Johannesson, Magnus; Cesarini, David; Hofman, Albert; Harris, Sarah E.; Smith, Jennifer A.; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Schmidt, Helena; Smith, Jacqui; Iacono, William G.; McGue, Matt; Bennett, David A.; Pedersen, Nancy L.; Magnusson, Patrik K. E.; Deary, Ian J.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Boomsma, Dorret I.; Bartels, Meike; Luciano, Michelle

2016-01-01

Approximately half of the variation in wellbeing measures overlaps with variation in personality traits. Studies of non-human primate pedigrees and human twins suggest that this is due to common genetic influences. We tested whether personality polygenic scores for the NEO Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI) domains and for item response theory (IRT) derived extraversion and neuroticism scores predict variance in wellbeing measures. Polygenic scores were based on published genome-wide association (GWA) results in over 17,000 individuals for the NEO-FFI and in over 63,000 for the IRT extraversion and neuroticism traits. The NEO-FFI polygenic scores were used to predict life satisfaction in 7 cohorts, positive affect in 12 cohorts, and general wellbeing in 1 cohort (maximal N = 46,508). Meta-analysis of these results showed no significant association between NEO-FFI personality polygenic scores and the wellbeing measures. IRT extraversion and neuroticism polygenic scores were used to predict life satisfaction and positive affect in almost 37,000 individuals from UK Biobank. Significant positive associations (effect sizes <0.05%) were observed between the extraversion polygenic score and wellbeing measures, and a negative association was observed between the polygenic neuroticism score and life satisfaction. Furthermore, using GWA data, genetic correlations of −0.49 and −0.55 were estimated between neuroticism with life satisfaction and positive affect, respectively. The moderate genetic correlation between neuroticism and wellbeing is in line with twin research showing that genetic influences on wellbeing are also shared with other independent personality domains. PMID:27546527

Experimental predictions drawn from a computational model of sign-trackers and goal-trackers.

PubMed

Lesaint, Florian; Sigaud, Olivier; Clark, Jeremy J; Flagel, Shelly B; Khamassi, Mehdi

2015-01-01

Gaining a better understanding of the biological mechanisms underlying the individual variation observed in response to rewards and reward cues could help to identify and treat individuals more prone to disorders of impulsive control, such as addiction. Variation in response to reward cues is captured in rats undergoing autoshaping experiments where the appearance of a lever precedes food delivery. Although no response is required for food to be delivered, some rats (goal-trackers) learn to approach and avidly engage the magazine until food delivery, whereas other rats (sign-trackers) come to approach and engage avidly the lever. The impulsive and often maladaptive characteristics of the latter response are reminiscent of addictive behaviour in humans. In a previous article, we developed a computational model accounting for a set of experimental data regarding sign-trackers and goal-trackers. Here we show new simulations of the model to draw experimental predictions that could help further validate or refute the model. In particular, we apply the model to new experimental protocols such as injecting flupentixol locally into the core of the nucleus accumbens rather than systemically, and lesioning of the core of the nucleus accumbens before or after conditioning. In addition, we discuss the possibility of removing the food magazine during the inter-trial interval. The predictions from this revised model will help us better understand the role of different brain regions in the behaviours expressed by sign-trackers and goal-trackers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temperament as a Predictor of Symptomotology and Adaptive Functioning in Adolescents with High-Functioning Autism

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Caley B.; Henderson, Heather A.; Inge, Anne P.; Zahka, Nicole E.; Coman, Drew C.; Kojkowski, Nicole M.; Hileman, Camilla M.; Mundy, Peter C.

2009-01-01

Variation in temperament is characteristic of all people but is rarely studied as a predictor of individual differences among individuals with autism. Relative to a matched comparison sample, adolescents with High-Functioning Autism (HFA) reported lower levels of Surgency and higher levels of Negative Affect. Variability in temperament predicted symptomotology, social skills, and social-emotional outcomes differently for individuals with HFA than for the comparison sample. This study is unique in that temperament was measured by self-report, while all outcome measures were reported by parents. The broader implications of this study suggest that by identifying individual variability in constructs, such as temperament, that may influence adaptive functioning, interventions may be developed to target these constructs and increase the likelihood that individuals with HFA will achieve more adaptive life outcomes. PMID:19165586

Intrapopulation variation in stature and body proportions: social status and sex differences in an Italian medieval population (Trino Vercellese, VC).

PubMed

Vercellotti, Giuseppe; Stout, Sam D; Boano, Rosa; Sciulli, Paul W

2011-06-01

The phenotypic expression of adult body size and shape results from synergistic interactions between hereditary factors and environmental conditions experienced during growth. Variation in body size and shape occurs even in genetically relatively homogeneous groups, due to different occurrence, duration, and timing of growth insults. Understanding the causes and patterns of intrapopulation variation can foster meaningful information on early life conditions in living and past populations. This study assesses the pattern of biological variation in body size and shape attributable to sex and social status in a medieval Italian population. The sample includes 52 (20 female, 32 male) adult individuals from the medieval population of Trino Vercellese, Italy. Differences in element size and overall body size (skeletal height and body mass) were assessed through Monte Carlo methods, while univariate non-parametric tests and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were employed to examine segmental and overall body proportions. Discriminant Analysis was employed to determine the predictive value of individual skeletal elements for social status in the population. Our results highlight a distinct pattern in body size and shape variation in relation to status and sex. Male subsamples exhibit significant postcranial variation in body size, while female subsamples express smaller, nonsignificant differences. The analysis of segmental proportions highlighted differences in trunk/lower limb proportions between different status samples, and PCA indicated that in terms of purely morphological variation high status males were distinct from all other groups. The pattern observed likely resulted from a combination of biological factors and cultural practices. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Personality, Foraging and Fitness Consequences in a Long Lived Seabird

PubMed Central

Patrick, Samantha C.; Weimerskirch, Henri

2014-01-01

While personality differences in animals are defined as consistent behavioural variation between individuals, the widely studied field of foraging specialisation in marine vertebrates has rarely been addressed within this framework. However there is much overlap between the two fields, both aiming to measure the causes and consequences of consistent individual behaviour. Here for the first time we use both a classic measure of personality, the response to a novel object, and an estimate of foraging strategy, derived from GPS data, to examine individual personality differences in black browed albatross and their consequences for fitness. First, we examine the repeatability of personality scores and link these to variation in foraging habitat. Bolder individuals forage nearer the colony, in shallower regions, whereas shyer birds travel further from the colony, and fed in deeper oceanic waters. Interestingly, neither personality score predicted a bird’s overlap with fisheries. Second, we show that both personality scores are correlated with fitness consequences, dependent on sex and year quality. Our data suggest that shyer males and bolder females have higher fitness, but the strength of this relationship depends on year quality. Females who forage further from the colony have higher breeding success in poor quality years, whereas males foraging close to the colony always have higher fitness. Together these results highlight the potential importance of personality variation in seabirds and that the fitness consequences of boldness and foraging strategy may be highly sex dependent. PMID:24504180

Determination of physical height from crown dimensions of deciduous tooth: A dental morphometric study.

PubMed

Ramanna, C; Kamath, Venkatesh V; Sharada, C; Srikanth, N

2016-01-01

Dental morphometrics is a subject of great significance in forensic odontology in identification of an individual. Use of teeth to represent a physical profile is valuable for identification of an individual. The present study aims to assess the clinical crown length (CL) of erupted deciduous teeth and height of the child. A correlation of these parameters was attempted to arrive at a mathematical equation which would formulate a ratio of tooth CL to individual height that would support in estimating the probable height of the child. About 60 children (30 males and 30 females) of age ranged from 3-6 years were included in this study. Clinical vertical CLs of the deciduous dentition (tooth numbers 51, 52, 53, 54, and 55) were calculated using digital Vernier calipers (Aerospace Ltd., Bengaluru, Karnataka, India) on the cast models. Child height was measured using a standard measuring tape. Ratios of deciduous CL to height of the child were recorded. Linear stepwise forward regression analysis was applied to predict the probability of CL of a tooth most likely to support in prediction of physical height of the child. Tabulated results showed a probable correlation between tooth CL and height of the child. Tooth CLs of deciduous upper right second molar (55) among the males, lateral incisor (52) among females, and canine (53) using the combined male and female data were statistically significant, and they approximately predicted the child height with minimal variations. Mathematically derived equations based on linear stepwise forward regression analysis using sixty children data are height prediction (derived from combined data of male and female children) = 400.558 + 90.264 (53 CL), male child height prediction (derived from data of male children) = 660.290 + 72.970 (55 CL), and female child height prediction (derived from data of female children) = -187.942 + 194.818 (52 CL). In conclusion, clinical vertical CL is an important parameter in prediction of individual height and possible identification of the individual. An extension of the similar technique to all the deciduous dentition using a larger group of children would probably give us the best options available among vertical CLs for prediction of the child height.

The real-time prediction and inhibition of linguistic outcomes: Effects of language and literacy skill.

PubMed

Kukona, Anuenue; Braze, David; Johns, Clinton L; Mencl, W Einar; Van Dyke, Julie A; Magnuson, James S; Pugh, Kenneth R; Shankweiler, Donald P; Tabor, Whitney

2016-11-01

Recent studies have found considerable individual variation in language comprehenders' predictive behaviors, as revealed by their anticipatory eye movements during language comprehension. The current study investigated the relationship between these predictive behaviors and the language and literacy skills of a diverse, community-based sample of young adults. We found that rapid automatized naming (RAN) was a key determinant of comprehenders' prediction ability (e.g., as reflected in predictive eye movements to a white cake on hearing "The boy will eat the white…"). Simultaneously, comprehension-based measures predicted participants' ability to inhibit eye movements to objects that shared features with predictable referents but were implausible completions (e.g., as reflected in eye movements to a white but inedible white car). These findings suggest that the excitatory and inhibitory mechanisms that support prediction during language processing are closely linked with specific cognitive abilities that support literacy. We show that a self-organizing cognitive architecture captures this pattern of results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

2017-09-01

Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

Tree community variation in a tropical continental island according to slope aspect and human interference.

PubMed

Gonçalves, Nathan B; Nettesheim, Felipe C; Conde, Marilena M S

2018-01-01

Associating description of unrecorded tropical tree community structure to sampling approaches that can help determine mechanisms behind floristic variation is important to further the comprehension of how plant species coexist at tropical forests. Thus, this study had the goals of (i) evaluating tree community structure on the continental island of Marambaia (23°4'37.09"S; 43°59'2.15"W) and (ii) testing the prediction that there are local scale changes in a tropical tree community structure between slopes facing different geographic orientation and with distinct human interference history. We established 60 (0.6 ha) sampling units in three different slope sites with distinct predominant geographic orientation and human interference. We sampled all woody trees with diameter at breast height (dbh) ≥ 5 cm. We found a total of 1.170 individuals representing 220 species, 120 genera and 50 families. The overall tree community structure and structural descriptors (abundance of individuals, basal area, species richness and diversity) varied extensively between the sites. The evidence presented here supports that local scale topography variations and human interference history can be important factors contributing to the known floristic heterogeneity of the Atlantic Rainforest. Future work on the study area should focus on disentangling effects from distinct causal factors over tree community variation and species occurrence.

Racial/ethnic and socioeconomic variations in duration of smoking: results from 2003, 2006 and 2007 Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey.

PubMed

Siahpush, M; Singh, G K; Jones, P R; Timsina, L R

2010-06-01

Little is known about racial/ethnic and socioeconomic variations in the duration of smoking. The goal of this research was to examine these variations. Data came from the 2003, 2006 and 2007 Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey. The analysis was limited to ever-smokers (n = 117,168). The outcome was number of years of daily smoking. Survival analysis was employed to predict smoking duration. American Indians with 32 years had the highest median duration of smoking, followed by Blacks and 'other' races with 30 years, Whites with 28 years and Hispanics with 24 years. The difference in the duration of smoking between Blacks and Whites disappeared after adjusting for poverty. Individuals in poverty had a median duration of smoking of 40 years, while those with a family income of at least three times that of the poverty threshold had a median duration of 22 years. Median duration of smoking was 40 years among individuals without a high-school diploma and 18 years among those with a bachelors or higher degree. This research revealed large variations in smoking duration between racial/ethnic and socioeconomic groups. Longer exposure to tobacco among groups that are already disadvantaged is likely to exacerbate existing health disparities.

Variable coloration is associated with dampened population fluctuations in noctuid moths

PubMed Central

Forsman, Anders; Betzholtz, Per-Eric; Franzén, Markus

2015-01-01

Theory and recent reviews state that greater genetic and phenotypic variation should be beneficial for population abundance and stability. Experimental evaluations of this prediction are rare, of short duration and conducted under controlled environmental settings. The question whether greater diversity in functionally important traits stabilizes populations under more complex ecological conditions in the wild has not been systematically evaluated. Moths are mainly nocturnal, with a large variation in colour patterns among species, and constitute an important food source for many types of organisms. Here, we report the results of a long-term (2003–2013) monitoring study of 115 100 noctuid moths from 246 species. Analysis of time-series data provide rare evidence that species with higher levels of inter-individual variation in colour pattern have higher average abundances and undergo smaller between-year fluctuations compared with species having less variable colour patterns. The signature of interspecific temporal synchronization of abundance fluctuations was weak, suggesting that the dynamics were driven by species-specific biotic interactions rather than by some common, density-independent factor(s). We conclude that individual variation in colour patterns dampens population abundance fluctuations, and suggest that this may partly reflect that colour pattern polymorphism provides protection from visually oriented predators and parasitoids. PMID:25972462

Genome-wide SNP analysis reveals a genetic basis for sea-age variation in a wild population of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar).

PubMed

Johnston, Susan E; Orell, Panu; Pritchard, Victoria L; Kent, Matthew P; Lien, Sigbjørn; Niemelä, Eero; Erkinaro, Jaakko; Primmer, Craig R

2014-07-01

Delaying sexual maturation can lead to larger body size and higher reproductive success, but carries an increased risk of death before reproducing. Classical life history theory predicts that trade-offs between reproductive success and survival should lead to the evolution of an optimal strategy in a given population. However, variation in mating strategies generally persists, and in general, there remains a poor understanding of genetic and physiological mechanisms underlying this variation. One extreme case of this is in the Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), which can show variation in the age at which they return from their marine migration to spawn (i.e. their 'sea age'). This results in large size differences between strategies, with direct implications for individual fitness. Here, we used an Illumina Infinium SNP array to identify regions of the genome associated with variation in sea age in a large population of Atlantic salmon in Northern Europe, implementing individual-based genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and population-based FST outlier analyses. We identified several regions of the genome which vary in association with phenotype and/or selection between sea ages, with nearby genes having functions related to muscle development, metabolism, immune response and mate choice. In addition, we found that individuals of different sea ages belong to different, yet sympatric populations in this system, indicating that reproductive isolation may be driven by divergence between stable strategies. Overall, this study demonstrates how genome-wide methodologies can be integrated with samples collected from wild, structured populations to understand their ecology and evolution in a natural context. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Neural Activity in the Ventral Pallidum Encodes Variation in the Incentive Value of a Reward Cue

PubMed Central

Meyer, Paul J.; Ferguson, Lindsay M.; Robinson, Terry E.; Aldridge, J. Wayne

2016-01-01

There is considerable individual variation in the extent to which reward cues are attributed with incentive salience. For example, a food-predictive conditioned stimulus (CS; an illuminated lever) becomes attractive, eliciting approach toward it only in some rats (“sign trackers,” STs), whereas others (“goal trackers,” GTs) approach the food cup during the CS period. The purpose of this study was to determine how individual differences in Pavlovian approach responses are represented in neural firing patterns in the major output structure of the mesolimbic system, the ventral pallidum (VP). Single-unit in vivo electrophysiology was used to record neural activity in the caudal VP during the performance of ST and GT conditioned responses. All rats showed neural responses to both cue onset and reward delivery but, during the CS period, STs showed greater neural activity than GTs both in terms of the percentage of responsive neurons and the magnitude of the change in neural activity. Furthermore, neural activity was positively correlated with the degree of attraction to the cue. Given that the CS had equal predictive value in STs and GTs, we conclude that neural activity in the VP largely reflects the degree to which the CS was attributed with incentive salience. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Cues associated with reward can acquire motivational properties (i.e., incentive salience) that cause them to have a powerful influence on desire and motivated behavior. There are individual differences in sensitivity to reward-paired cues, with some individuals attaching greater motivational value to cues than others. Here, we investigated the neural activity associated with these individual differences in incentive salience. We found that cue-evoked neural firing in the ventral pallidum (VP) reflected the strength of incentive motivation, with the greatest neural responses occurring in individuals that demonstrated the strongest attraction to the cue. This suggests that the VP plays an important role in the process by which cues gain control over motivation and behavior. PMID:27466340

Accounting for the impact of short-term variations in the levels of trihalomethane in drinking water on exposure assessment for epidemiological purposes. Part II: biological aspects.

PubMed

Catto, Cyril; Charest-Tardif, Ginette; Rodriguez, Manuel; Tardif, Robert

2013-01-01

The variability of trihalomethane (THM) levels in drinking water raises the question of whether or not short-term variations (within-day) should be accounted for when assessing exposure to contaminants suspected of being carcinogenic and reprotoxic agents. The purpose of this study was to determine the magnitude of the impact on predicted biological levels of THMs (internal doses) exerted by within-day variations of THMs in drinking water. A database extracted from a campaign in the Québec City distribution system served to produce 81, 79 and 64 concentration profiles for the three most abundant THMs, namely chloroform (TCM), dichlorobromomethane (DCBM) and chlorodibromomethane (CDBM), respectively. Using a physiologically based toxicokinetic modeling approach, we simulated exposures (1.5 l water per day and a 10-min shower) based on each of these profiles and predicted, for 2000 individuals (Monte-Carlo simulations), maximum blood concentrations (Cmax), areas under the time versus blood concentrations curve (24 h-AUCcv) and total absorbed doses (ADs). Three different hypotheses were tested: [A] assuming a constant THM concentration in water (e.g., mean value of a day); [B] accounting for within-day variations in THM levels; and [C] a worst-case scenario assuming within-day variations and showering while THM levels were maximal. For each exposure profile, exposure indicator and individual, we calculated the ratios of values obtained according to each hypothesis (e.g., CmaxB/CmaxA and CmaxC/CmaxA) and the values corresponding to the 5th and 95th percentiles of these ratios. The closer these percentiles are to the value of 1, the smaller the error associated with assuming constant THM concentrations rather than their actual variability. Results showed that the minimal gap between these percentiles was TCM-AD(B)/TCM-AD(A) (5th=0.91; 95th=1.09), whereas the maximal gap was CDBM-Cmax(C)/CDBM-Cmax(A) (5th=0.50; 95th=3.40). Overall, TCM and ADs were the less affected (TCM

Effect of culture methods on individual variation in the growth of sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus within a cohort and family

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Tianlong; Zhang, Libin; Zhang, Tao; Bai, Yucen; Yang, Hongsheng

2014-07-01

There is substantial individual variation in the growth rates of sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus individuals. This necessitates additional work to grade the seed stock and lengthens the production period. We evaluated the influence of three culture methods (free-mixed, isolated-mixed, isolated-alone) on individual variation in growth and assessed the relationship between feeding, energy conversion efficiency, and individual growth variation in individually cultured sea cucumbers. Of the different culture methods, animals grew best when reared in the isolated-mixed treatment (i.e., size classes were held separately), though there was no difference in individual variation in growth between rearing treatment groups. The individual variation in growth was primarily attributed to genetic factors. The difference in food conversion efficiency caused by genetic differences among individuals was thought to be the origin of the variance. The level of individual growth variation may be altered by interactions among individuals and environmental heterogeneity. Our results suggest that, in addition to traditional seed grading, design of a new kind of substrate that changes the spatial distribution of sea cucumbers would effectively enhance growth and reduce individual variation in growth of sea cucumbers in culture.

Developmental mechanisms underlying variation in craniofacial disease and evolution.

PubMed

Fish, Jennifer L

2016-07-15

Craniofacial disease phenotypes exhibit significant variation in penetrance and severity. Although many genetic contributions to phenotypic variation have been identified, genotype-phenotype correlations remain imprecise. Recent work in evolutionary developmental biology has exposed intriguing developmental mechanisms that potentially explain incongruities in genotype-phenotype relationships. This review focuses on two observations from work in comparative and experimental animal model systems that highlight how development structures variation. First, multiple genetic inputs converge on relatively few developmental processes. Investigation of when and how variation in developmental processes occurs may therefore help predict potential genetic interactions and phenotypic outcomes. Second, genetic mutation is typically associated with an increase in phenotypic variance. Several models outlining developmental mechanisms underlying mutational increases in phenotypic variance are discussed using Satb2-mediated variation in jaw size as an example. These data highlight development as a critical mediator of genotype-phenotype correlations. Future research in evolutionary developmental biology focusing on tissue-level processes may help elucidate the "black box" between genotype and phenotype, potentially leading to novel treatment, earlier diagnoses, and better clinical consultations for individuals affected by craniofacial anomalies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developing a rich definition of the person/residence to support ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Characterizing interindividual variation in combined chemical exposures from the use of consumer products is a challenge because of the complexity of these exposures. There are many products commercially available and individuals use combinations of products dictated by their specific needs. Product use varies with an individual’s demographics (e.g., age, gender, ethnicity, family structure, and type of residence). Exposures also occur as a result of other individuals using products in the home (e.g., painting a room exposes all individuals in a home and washing a child exposes both child and adult). Finally, characterizing applied and internal doses requires data on the physiology and behaviors of the individual. The U.S. EPA is developing probabilistic methods of modeling variation in exposure-relevant characteristics of individuals, their residences, and their families. The goal of this effort is the generation of synthetic populations whose characteristics can be used to predict chemical doses from the use of consumer products. A database of population demographics is created by linking data from the U.S. Census with data from U.S. housing surveys. Survey data are linked by matching records based on similarities in the characteristics correlated with the parameters of interest. The demographics are also combined with rules controlling product usage to refine the estimates of the products that individuals in a household may use (e.g., only adults with a you

Schmallenberg virus: Predicting within-herd seroprevalence using bulk-tank milk antibody titres and exploring individual animal antibody titres using empirical distribution functions (EDF).

PubMed

Collins, Á B; Grant, J; Barrett, D; Doherty, M L; Hallinan, A; Mee, J F

2017-08-01

Schmallenberg virus (SBV) is transmitted by Culicoides spp. biting midges and can cause abortions and congenital malformations in ruminants and milk drop in dairy cattle. Estimating true within-herd seroprevalence is an essential component of efficient and cost-effective SBV surveillance programs. The objectives of this study were: (1) determine the correlation between bulk-tank milk (BTM)-ELISA results and within-herd seroprevalence, (2) evaluate the ability of BTM-ELISA results to predict within-herd seroprevalence and (3) explore the distributions of individual animal serology results using novel statistical methodology. BTM samples (n=24) and blood samples (n=4019) collected from all lactating cows contributing to the BTM in 26 Irish dairy herds (58-444 cows/herd) in 2014 located in a region exposed to SBV in 2012/2013, were analysed for SBV-specific antibodies using IDVet ® ELISA kits. The correlation between BTM-ELISA results and within-herd seroprevalence was determined by calculating Pearson's correlation coefficient. Linear regression models were used to assess the ability of BTM-ELISA results to predict within-herd seroprevalence. The distributions of individual animal serology results were explored by determining the empirical distribution functions (EDF) of the individual animal serum ELISA results in each herd. EDFs were compared pairwise across herds, using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test. Herds with similar BTM-ELISA results, herds with similar within-herd seroprevalence and herds with similar mean-herd serology ELISA results were stratified in order to explore their respective paired-herd EDF comparisons. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05. Twenty-two herds were BTM-ELISA-positive (within-herd seroprevalence 30.6-100%) and two herds were BTM-ELISA-negative (within-herd seroprevalence 10.7 and 16.2%) indicating BTM-ELISA-negative herds can have seropositive animals present. BTM-ELISA results were highly correlated (r=0.807, p<0.0001) with, and predictive of (R 2 =0.832, p<0.0001) of within-herd seroprevalence. Predictions were most accurate for upper-range BTM-ELISA antibody titres, while they were less accurate at higher and lower antibody titres. This is likely a result of the overall high within-herd seroprevalence. In herds with similar BTM-ELISA results 82% of the paired-herd EDF comparisons were significantly different. In herds with similar within-herd seroprevalence and in herds with similar mean-herd serology ELISA results, 46% and 47% of the paired-herd EDF comparisons were significantly different, respectively. These results demonstrate that BTM antibody titres are highly predictive of within-herd seroprevalence in an SBV exposed region. Furthermore, exploring the serum EDFs revealed that the variation observed in the predicted within-herd seroprevalence in the regression models is likely a result of individual animal variation in serum antibody titres in these herds. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Making the most of sparse clinical data by using a predictive-model-based analysis, illustrated with a stavudine pharmacokinetic study.

PubMed

Zhang, L; Price, R; Aweeka, F; Bellibas, S E; Sheiner, L B

2001-02-01

A small-scale clinical investigation was done to quantify the penetration of stavudine (D4T) into cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). A model-based analysis estimates the steady-state ratio of AUCs of CSF and plasma concentrations (R(AUC)) to be 0.270, and the mean residence time of drug in the CSF to be 7.04 h. The analysis illustrates the advantages of a causal (scientific, predictive) model-based approach to analysis over a noncausal (empirical, descriptive) approach when the data, as here, demonstrate certain problematic features commonly encountered in clinical data, namely (i) few subjects, (ii) sparse sampling, (iii) repeated measures, (iv) imbalance, and (v) individual design variation. These features generally require special attention in data analysis. The causal-model-based analysis deals with features (i) and (ii), both of which reduce efficiency, by combining data from different studies and adding subject-matter prior information. It deals with features (iii)--(v), all of which prevent 'averaging' individual data points directly, first, by adjusting in the model for interindividual data differences due to design differences, secondly, by explicitly differentiating between interpatient, interoccasion, and measurement error variation, and lastly, by defining a scientifically meaningful estimand (R(AUC)) that is independent of design.

Scared and less noisy: glucocorticoids are associated with alarm call entropy

PubMed Central

Blumstein, Daniel T.; Chi, Yvonne Y.

2012-01-01

The nonlinearity and arousal hypothesis predicts that highly aroused mammals will produce nonlinear, noisy vocalizations. We tested this prediction by measuring faecal glucocorticoid metabolites (GCMs) in adult yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris), and asking if variation in GCMs was positively correlated with Wiener entropy—a measure of noise. Contrary to our prediction, we found a significant negative relationship: marmots with more faecal GCMs produced calls with less noise than those with lower levels of GCMs. A previous study suggested that glucocorticoids modulate the probability that a marmot will emit a call. This study suggests that, like some other species, calls emitted from highly aroused individuals are less noisy. Glucocorticoids thus play an important, yet underappreciated role, in alarm call production. PMID:21976625

Scared and less noisy: glucocorticoids are associated with alarm call entropy.

PubMed

Blumstein, Daniel T; Chi, Yvonne Y

2012-04-23

The nonlinearity and arousal hypothesis predicts that highly aroused mammals will produce nonlinear, noisy vocalizations. We tested this prediction by measuring faecal glucocorticoid metabolites (GCMs) in adult yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris), and asking if variation in GCMs was positively correlated with Wiener entropy-a measure of noise. Contrary to our prediction, we found a significant negative relationship: marmots with more faecal GCMs produced calls with less noise than those with lower levels of GCMs. A previous study suggested that glucocorticoids modulate the probability that a marmot will emit a call. This study suggests that, like some other species, calls emitted from highly aroused individuals are less noisy. Glucocorticoids thus play an important, yet underappreciated role, in alarm call production.

Insights from triangulation of two purchase choice elicitation methods to predict social decision making in healthcare.

PubMed

Whitty, Jennifer A; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn R; Scuffham, Paul A

2012-03-01

Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) and the Juster scale are accepted methods for the prediction of individual purchase probabilities. Nevertheless, these methods have seldom been applied to a social decision-making context. To gain an overview of social decisions for a decision-making population through data triangulation, these two methods were used to understand purchase probability in a social decision-making context. We report an exploratory social decision-making study of pharmaceutical subsidy in Australia. A DCE and selected Juster scale profiles were presented to current and past members of the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee and its Economic Subcommittee. Across 66 observations derived from 11 respondents for 6 different pharmaceutical profiles, there was a small overall median difference of 0.024 in the predicted probability of public subsidy (p = 0.003), with the Juster scale predicting the higher likelihood. While consistency was observed at the extremes of the probability scale, the funding probability differed over the mid-range of profiles. There was larger variability in the DCE than Juster predictions within each individual respondent, suggesting the DCE is better able to discriminate between profiles. However, large variation was observed between individuals in the Juster scale but not DCE predictions. It is important to use multiple methods to obtain a complete picture of the probability of purchase or public subsidy in a social decision-making context until further research can elaborate on our findings. This exploratory analysis supports the suggestion that the mixed logit model, which was used for the DCE analysis, may fail to adequately account for preference heterogeneity in some contexts.

Predicting arsenic concentrations in groundwater of San Luis Valley, Colorado: implications for individual-level lifetime exposure assessment.

PubMed

James, Katherine A; Meliker, Jaymie R; Buttenfield, Barbara E; Byers, Tim; Zerbe, Gary O; Hokanson, John E; Marshall, Julie A

2014-08-01

Consumption of inorganic arsenic in drinking water at high levels has been associated with chronic diseases. Risk is less clear at lower levels of arsenic, in part due to difficulties in estimating exposure. Herein we characterize spatial and temporal variability of arsenic concentrations and develop models for predicting aquifer arsenic concentrations in the San Luis Valley, Colorado, an area of moderately elevated arsenic in groundwater. This study included historical water samples with total arsenic concentrations from 595 unique well locations. A longitudinal analysis established temporal stability in arsenic levels in individual wells. The mean arsenic levels for a random sample of 535 wells were incorporated into five kriging models to predict groundwater arsenic concentrations at any point in time. A separate validation dataset (n = 60 wells) was used to identify the model with strongest predictability. Findings indicate that arsenic concentrations are temporally stable (r = 0.88; 95 % CI 0.83-0.92 for samples collected from the same well 15-25 years apart) and the spatial model created using ordinary kriging best predicted arsenic concentrations (ρ = 0.72 between predicted and observed validation data). These findings illustrate the value of geostatistical modeling of arsenic and suggest the San Luis Valley is a good region for conducting epidemiologic studies of groundwater metals because of the ability to accurately predict variation in groundwater arsenic concentrations.

Relationships between the floral neighborhood and individual pollen limitation in two self-incompatible herbs.

PubMed

Jakobsson, Anna; Lázaro, Amparo; Totland, Orjan

2009-07-01

Local flower density can affect pollen limitation and plant reproductive success through changes in pollinator visitation and availability of compatible pollen. Many studies have investigated the relationship between conspecific density and pollen limitation among populations, but less is known about within-population relationships and the effect of heterospecific flower density. In addition, few studies have explicitly assessed how the spatial scales at which flowers are monitored affect relationships. We investigated the effect of floral neighborhood on pollen limitation at four spatial scales in the self-incompatible herbs Armeria maritima spp. maritima and Ranunculus acris spp. acris. Moreover, we measured pollen deposition in Armeria and pollinator visits to Ranunculus. There was substantial variation in pollen limitation among Armeria individuals, and 25% of this variation was explained by the density of compatible and heterospecific flowers within a 3 m circle. Deposition of compatible pollen was affected by the density of compatible and incompatible inflorescences within a 0.5 m circle, and deposition of heterospecific pollen was affected by the density of heterospecific flowers within a 2 m circle. In Ranunculus, the number of pollinator visits was affected by both conspecific and heterospecific flower densities. This did not, however, result in effects of the floral neighborhood on pollen limitation, probably due to an absence of pollen limitation at the population level. Our study shows that considerable variation in pollen limitation may occur among individuals of a population, and that this variation is partly explained by floral neighborhood density. Such individual-based measures provide an important link between pollen limitation theory, which predicts ecological and evolutionary causes and consequences for individual plants, and studies of the effects of landscape fragmentation on plant species persistence. Our study also highlights the importance of considering multiple spatial scales to understand the spatial extent of pollination processes within a population.

Human- Versus System-Level Factors and Their Effect on Electronic Work List Variation: Challenging Radiology's Fundamental Attribution Error.

PubMed

Davenport, Matthew S; Khalatbari, Shokoufeh; Platt, Joel F

2015-09-01

The aim of this study was to analyze sources of variation influencing the unread volume on an electronic abdominopelvic CT work list and to compare those results with blinded radiologist perception. The requirement for institutional review board approval was waived for this HIPAA-compliant quality improvement effort. Data pertaining to an electronic abdominopelvic CT work list were analyzed retrospectively from July 1, 2013, to June 30, 2014, and modeled with respect to the unread case total at 6 pm (Monday through Friday, excluding holidays). Eighteen system-level factors outside individual control (eg, number of workers, workload) and 7 human-level factors within individual control (eg, individual productivity) were studied. Attending radiologist perception was assessed with a blinded anonymous survey (n = 12 of 15 surveys completed). The mean daily unread total was 24 (range, 3-72). The upper control limit (48 CT studies [3 SDs above the mean]) was exceeded 10 times. Multivariate analysis revealed that the rate of unread CT studies was affected principally by system-level factors, including the number of experienced trainees on service (postgraduate year 5 residents [odds ratio, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.92; P = .0008] and fellows [odds ratio, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.95; P = .005]) and the daily workload (P = .02 to P < .0001). Individual faculty productivity had a weak effect (Spearman ρ = 0.13, P = .03; adequacy: 3% of variance explained). The majority (67%) of radiologists (8 of 12) completing the survey believed that variation in faculty effort was the most important influence on the daily unread total. System-level factors best predict the variation in unread CT examinations, but blinded faculty radiologists believe that it relates most strongly to variable individual effort. Copyright © 2015 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sociosexuality predicts women's preferences for symmetry in men's faces.

PubMed

Quist, Michelle C; Watkins, Christopher D; Smith, Finlay G; Little, Anthony C; Debruine, Lisa M; Jones, Benedict C

2012-12-01

Although men displaying cues of good physical condition possess traits that are desirable in a mate (e.g., good health), these men are also more likely to possess antisocial characteristics that are undesirable in a long-term partner (e.g., aggression and tendency to infidelity). How women resolve this trade-off between the costs and benefits associated with choosing a mate in good physical condition may lead to strategic variation in women's mate preferences. Because the costs of choosing a mate with antisocial personality characteristics are greater in long- than short-term relationships, women's sociosexuality (i.e., the extent to which they are interested in uncommitted sexual relationships) may predict individual differences in their mate preferences. Here we investigated variation in 99 heterosexual women's preferences for facial symmetry, a characteristic that is thought to be an important cue of physical condition. Symmetry preferences were assessed using pairs of symmetrized and original (i.e., relatively asymmetric) versions of 10 male and 10 female faces. Analyses showed that women's sociosexuality, and their sociosexual attitude in particular, predicted their preferences for symmetry in men's, but not women's, faces; women who reported being more interested in short-term, uncommitted relationships demonstrated stronger attraction to symmetric men. Our findings present new evidence for potentially adaptive variation in women's symmetry preferences that is consistent with trade-off theories of attraction.

Forensic individual age estimation with DNA: From initial approaches to methylation tests.

PubMed

Freire-Aradas, A; Phillips, C; Lareu, M V

2017-07-01

Individual age estimation is a key factor in forensic science analysis that can provide very useful information applicable to criminal, legal, and anthropological investigations. Forensic age inference was initially based on morphological inspection or radiography and only later began to adopt molecular approaches. However, a lack of accuracy or technical problems hampered the introduction of these DNA-based methodologies in casework analysis. A turning point occurred when the epigenetic signature of DNA methylation was observed to gradually change during an individual´s lifespan. In the last four years, the number of publications reporting DNA methylation age-correlated changes has gradually risen and the forensic community now has a range of age methylation tests applicable to forensic casework. Most forensic age predictor models have been developed based on blood DNA samples, but additional tissues are now also being explored. This review assesses the most widely adopted genes harboring methylation sites, detection technologies, statistical age-predictive analyses, and potential causes of variation in age estimates. Despite the need for further work to improve predictive accuracy and establishing a broader range of tissues for which tests can analyze the most appropriate methylation sites, several forensic age predictors have now been reported that provide consistency in their prediction accuracies (predictive error of ±4 years); this makes them compelling tools with the potential to contribute key information to help guide criminal investigations. Copyright © 2017 Central Police University.

Individual-Area Relationship Best Explains Goose Species Density in Wetlands

PubMed Central

Prins, Herbert H. T.; Cao, Lei; de Boer, Willem Fred

2015-01-01

Explaining and predicting animal distributions is one of the fundamental objectives in ecology and conservation biology. Animal habitat selection can be regulated by top-down and bottom-up processes, and is mediated by species interactions. Species varying in body size respond differently to top-down and bottom-up determinants, and hence understanding these allometric responses to those determinants is important for conservation. In this study, using two differently sized goose species wintering in the Yangtze floodplain, we tested the predictions derived from three different hypotheses (individual-area relationship, food resource and disturbance hypothesis) to explain the spatial and temporal variation in densities of two goose species. Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique, we demonstrated that goose density was positive correlated with patch area size, suggesting that the individual area-relationship best predicts differences in goose densities. Moreover, the other predictions, related to food availability and disturbance, were not significant. Buffalo grazing probably facilitated greater white-fronted geese, as the number of buffalos was positively correlated to the density of this species. We concluded that patch area size is the most important factor determining the density of goose species in our study area. Patch area size is directly determined by water levels in the Yangtze floodplain, and hence modifying the hydrological regimes can enlarge the capacity of these wetlands for migratory birds. PMID:25996502

Re-evaluation of constant versus varied punishers using empirically derived consequences.

PubMed

Toole, Lisa M; DeLeon, Iser G; Kahng, SungWoo; Ruffin, Geri E; Pletcher, Carrie A; Bowman, Lynn G

2004-01-01

Charlop, Burgio, Iwata, and Ivancic [J. Appl. Behav. Anal. 21 (1988) 89] demonstrated that varied punishment procedures produced greater or more consistent reductions of problem behavior than a constant punishment procedure. More recently, Fisher and colleagues [Res. Dev. Disabil. 15 (1994) 133; J. Appl. Behav. Anal. 27 (1994) 447] developed a systematic methodology for predicting the efficacy of various punishment procedures. Their procedure identified reinforcers and punishers (termed "empirically derived consequences" or EDC) that, when used in combination, reduced the destructive behavior of individuals with developmental disabilities who displayed automatically maintained destructive behavior. The current investigation combines these two lines of research by comparing the effects of constant versus varied punishers on the self-injury of two individuals with developmental disabilities. The punishing stimuli were selected via the procedures described by Fisher et al. and were predicted to be at varying levels of effectiveness. The varied presentation of punishers resulted in enhanced suppressive effects over the constant presentation of a punisher for one of two individuals, but only in comparison to a single stimulus predicted to be minimally effective. Even then, the differences were small. These results suggest that the additive effects of varied punishment are negligible if clinicians use stimuli predicted to be effective and are discussed in terms of the conditions under which stimulus variation could potentially enhance the effects of punishers.

Allometric growth and allocation in forests: a perspective from FLUXNET.

PubMed

Wolf, Adam; Field, Christopher B; Berry, Joseph A

2011-07-01

To develop a scheme for partitioning the products of photosynthesis toward different biomass components in land-surface models, a database on component mass and net primary productivity (NPP), collected from FLUXNET sites, was examined to determine allometric patterns of allocation. We found that NPP per individual of foliage (Gfol), stem and branches (Gstem), coarse roots (Gcroot) and fine roots (Gfroot) in individual trees is largely explained (r2 = 67-91%) by the magnitude of total NPP per individual (G). Gfol scales with G isometrically, meaning it is a fixed fraction of G ( 25%). Root-shoot trade-offs were manifest as a slow decline in Gfroot, as a fraction of G, from 50% to 25% as stands increased in biomass, with Gstem and Gcroot increasing as a consequence. These results indicate that a functional trade-off between aboveground and belowground allocation is essentially captured by variations in G, which itself is largely governed by stand biomass and only secondarily by site-specific resource availability. We argue that forests are characterized by strong competition for light, observed as a race for individual trees to ascend by increasing partitioning toward wood, rather than by growing more leaves, and that this competition stronglyconstrains the allocational plasticity that trees may be capable of. The residual variation in partitioning was not related to climatic or edaphic factors, nor did plots with nutrient or water additions show a pattern of partitioning distinct from that predicted by G alone. These findings leverage short-term process studies of the terrestrial carbon cycle to improve decade-scale predictions of biomass accumulation in forests. An algorithm for calculating partitioning in land-surface models is presented.

Differential stress responses among newly received calves: variations in reductant capacity and Hsp gene expression

PubMed Central

Eitam, Harel; Vaya, Jacob; Brosh, Arieh; Orlov, Ala; Khatib, Soliman; Izhaki, Ido

2010-01-01

Bovine respiratory disease complex (BRD), a major economic concern to the beef cattle industry all over the world, is triggered by physical, biological and psychological stresses. It is becoming noticeable that the key to reducing BRD appears to be centered at reducing the response to stress. The aims of the present study were to detect individual variations in the stress response of newly received young calves through their leukocyte heat shock protein (Hsp) response, selected neutrophil-related gene expression and oxidative stress, and relate them to pulmonary adhesions at slaughter, an indicative sign of clinical and subclinical episodes of BRD at an early age. Differential expression patterns of Hsp60 and Hsp70A1A were revealed in newly received calves 1 h, 5 h and 1 day after arrival, distinguishing between stress-responsive and non-stress-responsive individuals. Plasma cortisol was also indicative of stress-responsive and non-stress-responsive individuals, 1 h and 5 h after arrival. At the longer term, β-glycan levels were highest 7 days after arrival and significantly correlated with an adhesion-free phenotype at slaughter. Oxidative stress responses, measured through the oxidation products of the exogenous linoleoyl tyrosine (LT) marker, revealed that hydroperoxidation and epoxidation of membranes may readily occur. Based on the LT oxidation products and levels of β-glycan, we present a discriminant analysis model, according to which vulnerable individuals may be predicted at near 100% probability 7 days after arrival. Since clinical signs of BRD may often go undetected in feedlot calves, such a model, after its examination in large-scale experiments, may be a reliable tool for an early prediction of subclinical signs of BRD. PMID:20401744

Genomic Features That Predict Allelic Imbalance in Humans Suggest Patterns of Constraint on Gene Expression Variation

PubMed Central

Fédrigo, Olivier; Haygood, Ralph; Mukherjee, Sayan; Wray, Gregory A.

2009-01-01

Variation in gene expression is an important contributor to phenotypic diversity within and between species. Although this variation often has a genetic component, identification of the genetic variants driving this relationship remains challenging. In particular, measurements of gene expression usually do not reveal whether the genetic basis for any observed variation lies in cis or in trans to the gene, a distinction that has direct relevance to the physical location of the underlying genetic variant, and which may also impact its evolutionary trajectory. Allelic imbalance measurements identify cis-acting genetic effects by assaying the relative contribution of the two alleles of a cis-regulatory region to gene expression within individuals. Identification of patterns that predict commonly imbalanced genes could therefore serve as a useful tool and also shed light on the evolution of cis-regulatory variation itself. Here, we show that sequence motifs, polymorphism levels, and divergence levels around a gene can be used to predict commonly imbalanced genes in a human data set. Reduction of this feature set to four factors revealed that only one factor significantly differentiated between commonly imbalanced and nonimbalanced genes. We demonstrate that these results are consistent between the original data set and a second published data set in humans obtained using different technical and statistical methods. Finally, we show that variation in the single allelic imbalance-associated factor is partially explained by the density of genes in the region of a target gene (allelic imbalance is less probable for genes in gene-dense regions), and, to a lesser extent, the evenness of expression of the gene across tissues and the magnitude of negative selection on putative regulatory regions of the gene. These results suggest that the genomic distribution of functional cis-regulatory variants in the human genome is nonrandom, perhaps due to local differences in evolutionary constraint. PMID:19506001

Prediction of episodic acidification in North-eastern USA: An empirical/mechanistic approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, T.D.; Tranter, M.; Wigington, P.J.; Eshleman, K.N.; Peters, N.E.; Van Sickle, J.; DeWalle, David R.; Murdoch, Peter S.

1999-01-01

Observations from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Episodic Response Project (ERP) in the North-eastern United States are used to develop an empirical/mechanistic scheme for prediction of the minimum values of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) during episodes. An acidification episode is defined as a hydrological event during which ANC decreases. The pre-episode ANC is used to index the antecedent condition, and the stream flow increase reflects how much the relative contributions of sources of waters change during the episode. As much as 92% of the total variation in the minimum ANC in individual catchments can be explained (with levels of explanation >70% for nine of the 13 streams) by a multiple linear regression model that includes pre-episode ANC and change in discharge as independent variable. The predictive scheme is demonstrated to be regionally robust, with the regional variance explained ranging from 77 to 83%. The scheme is not successful for each ERP stream, and reasons are suggested for the individual failures. The potential for applying the predictive scheme to other watersheds is demonstrated by testing the model with data from the Panola Mountain Research Watershed in the South-eastern United States, where the variance explained by the model was 74%. The model can also be utilized to assess 'chemically new' and 'chemically old' water sources during acidification episodes.Observations from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Episodic Response Project (ERP) in the Northeastern United States are used to develop an empirical/mechanistic scheme for prediction of the minimum values of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) during episodes. An acidification episode is defined as a hydrological event during which ANC decreases. The pre-episode ANC is used to index the antecedent condition, and the stream flow increase reflects how much the relative contributions of sources of waters change during the episode. As much as 92% of the total variation in the minimum ANC in individual catchments can be explained (with levels of explanation >70% for nine of the 13 streams) by a multiple linear regression model that includes pre-episode ANC and change in discharge as independent variables. The predictive scheme is demonstrated to be regionally robust, with the regional variance explained ranging from 77 to 83%. The scheme is not successful for each ERP stream, and reasons are suggested for the individual failures. The potential for applying the predictive scheme to other watersheds is demonstrated by testing the model with data from the Panola Mountain Research Watershed in the South-eastern United States, where the variance explained by the model was 74%. The model can also be utilized to assess `chemically new' and `chemically old' water sources during acidification episodes.

Genetic variations in taste perception modify alcohol drinking behavior in Koreans.

PubMed

Choi, Jeong-Hwa; Lee, Jeonghee; Yang, Sarah; Kim, Jeongseon

2017-06-01

The sensory components of alcohol affect the onset of individual's drinking. Therefore, variations in taste receptor genes may lead to differential sensitivity for alcohol taste, which may modify an individual's drinking behavior. This study examined the influence of genetic variants in the taste-sensing mechanism on alcohol drinking behavior and the choice of alcoholic beverages. A total of 1829 Koreans were analyzed for their alcohol drinking status (drinker/non-drinker), total alcohol consumption (g/day), heavy drinking (≥30 g/day) and type of regularly consumed alcoholic beverages. Twenty-one genetic variations in bitterness, sweetness, umami and fatty acid sensing were also genotyped. Our findings suggested that multiple genetic variants modified individuals' alcohol drinking behavior. Genetic variations in the T2R bitterness receptor family were associated with overall drinking behavior. Subjects with the TAS2R38 AVI haplotype were less likely to be a drinker [odds ratio (OR): 0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.59-0.95], and TAS2R5 rs2227264 predicted the level of total alcohol consumption (p = 0.01). In contrast, the T1R sweet and umami receptor family was associated with heavy drinking. TAS1R3 rs307355 CT carriers were more likely to be heavy drinkers (OR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.06-2.19). The genetic variants were also associated with the choice of alcoholic beverages. The homo-recessive type of TAS2R4 rs2233998 (OR: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.11-2.37) and TAS2R5 rs2227264 (OR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.14-2.58) were associated with consumption of rice wine. However, TAS1R2 rs35874116 was associated with wine drinking (OR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.43-0.98) and the consumption level (p = 0.04). These findings suggest that multiple genetic variations in taste receptors influence drinking behavior in Koreans. Genetic variations are also responsible for the preference of particular alcoholic beverages, which may contribute to an individual's alcohol drinking behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predator and prey activity levels jointly influence the outcome of long-term foraging bouts

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Consistent interindividual differences in behavior (i.e., “behavioral types”) may be a key factor in determining the outcome of species interactions. Studies that simultaneously account for the behavioral types of individuals in multiple interacting species, such as predator–prey systems, may be particularly strong predictors of ecological outcomes. Here, we test the predator–prey locomotor crossover hypothesis, which predicts that active predators are more likely to encounter and consume prey with the opposing locomotor tendency. We test this hypothesis using intraspecific behavioral variation in both a predator and prey species as predictors of foraging outcomes. We use the old field jumping spider, Phidippus clarus (Araneae, Salticidae), and the house cricket, Acheta domesticus (Orthoptera, Gryllidae), as a model predator–prey system in laboratory mesocosm trials. Stable individual differences in locomotor tendencies were identified in both P. clarus and A. domesticus, and the outcome of foraging bouts depended neither on the average activity level of the predator nor on the average activity level of prey. Instead, an interaction between the activity level of spiders and crickets predicted spider foraging success and prey survivorship. Consistent with the locomotor crossover hypothesis, predators exhibiting higher activity levels consumed more prey when in an environment containing low-activity prey items and vice versa. This study highlights 1) the importance of intraspecific variation in determining the outcome of predator–prey interactions and 2) that acknowledging behavioral variation in only a single species may be insufficient to characterize the performance consequences of intraspecific trait variants. PMID:23935257

Role of malnutrition and parasite infections in the spatial variation in children's anaemia risk in northern Angola.

PubMed

Soares Magalhães, Ricardo J; Langa, Antonio; Pedro, João Mário; Sousa-Figueiredo, José Carlos; Clements, Archie C A; Vaz Nery, Susana

2013-05-01

Anaemia is known to have an impact on child development and mortality and is a severe public health problem in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the consistency between ecological and individual-level approaches to anaemia mapping by building spatial anaemia models for children aged ≤15 years using different modelling approaches. We aimed to (i) quantify the role of malnutrition, malaria, Schistosoma haematobium and soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) in anaemia endemicity; and (ii) develop a high resolution predictive risk map of anaemia for the municipality of Dande in northern Angola. We used parasitological survey data for children aged ≤15 years to build Bayesian geostatistical models of malaria (PfPR≤15), S. haematobium, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura and predict small-scale spatial variations in these infections. Malnutrition, PfPR≤15, and S. haematobium infections were significantly associated with anaemia risk. An estimated 12.5%, 15.6% and 9.8% of anaemia cases could be averted by treating malnutrition, malaria and S. haematobium, respectively. Spatial clusters of high risk of anaemia (>86%) were identified. Using an individual-level approach to anaemia mapping at a small spatial scale, we found that anaemia in children aged ≤15 years is highly heterogeneous and that malnutrition and parasitic infections are important contributors to the spatial variation in anaemia risk. The results presented in this study can help inform the integration of the current provincial malaria control programme with ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of neglected tropical diseases such as urogenital schistosomiasis and STH infections.

Predicting risk in space: Genetic markers for differential vulnerability to sleep restriction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, Namni; Dinges, David F.

2012-08-01

Several laboratories have found large, highly reliable individual differences in the magnitude of cognitive performance, fatigue and sleepiness, and sleep homeostatic vulnerability to acute total sleep deprivation and to chronic sleep restriction in healthy adults. Such individual differences in neurobehavioral performance are also observed in space flight as a result of sleep loss. The reasons for these stable phenotypic differential vulnerabilities are unknown: such differences are not yet accounted for by demographic factors, IQ or sleep need, and moreover, psychometric scales do not predict those individuals cognitively vulnerable to sleep loss. The stable, trait-like (phenotypic) inter-individual differences observed in response to sleep loss—with intraclass correlation coefficients accounting for 58-92% of the variance in neurobehavioral measures—point to an underlying genetic component. To this end, we utilized multi-day highly controlled laboratory studies to investigate the role of various common candidate gene variants—each independently—in relation to cumulative neurobehavioral and sleep homeostatic responses to sleep restriction. These data suggest that common genetic variations (polymorphisms) involved in sleep-wake, circadian, and cognitive regulation may serve as markers for prediction of inter-individual differences in sleep homeostatic and neurobehavioral vulnerability to sleep restriction in healthy adults. Identification of genetic predictors of differential vulnerability to sleep restriction—as determined from candidate gene studies—will help identify astronauts most in need of fatigue countermeasures in space flight and inform medical standards for obtaining adequate sleep in space. This review summarizes individual differences in neurobehavioral vulnerability to sleep deprivation and ongoing genetic efforts to identify markers of such differences.

Predicting the disease of Alzheimer with SNP biomarkers and clinical data using data mining classification approach: decision tree.

PubMed

Erdoğan, Onur; Aydin Son, Yeşim

2014-01-01

Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) are the most common genomic variations where only a single nucleotide differs between individuals. Individual SNPs and SNP profiles associated with diseases can be utilized as biological markers. But there is a need to determine the SNP subsets and patients' clinical data which is informative for the diagnosis. Data mining approaches have the highest potential for extracting the knowledge from genomic datasets and selecting the representative SNPs as well as most effective and informative clinical features for the clinical diagnosis of the diseases. In this study, we have applied one of the widely used data mining classification methodology: "decision tree" for associating the SNP biomarkers and significant clinical data with the Alzheimer's disease (AD), which is the most common form of "dementia". Different tree construction parameters have been compared for the optimization, and the most accurate tree for predicting the AD is presented.

Novel droplet platforms for the detection of disease biomarkers.

PubMed

Zec, Helena; Shin, Dong Jin; Wang, Tza-Huei

2014-09-01

Personalized medicine - healthcare based on individual genetic variation - has the potential to transform the way healthcare is delivered to patients. The promise of personalized medicine has been predicated on the predictive and diagnostic power of genomic and proteomic biomarkers. Biomarker screening may help improve health outcomes, for example, by identifying individuals' susceptibility to diseases and predicting how patients will respond to drugs. Microfluidic droplet technology offers an exciting opportunity to revolutionize the accessibility of personalized medicine. A framework for the role of droplet microfluidics in biomarker detection can be based on two main themes. Emulsion-based microdroplet platforms can provide new ways to measure and detect biomolecules. In addition, microdroplet platforms facilitate high-throughput screening of biomarkers. Meanwhile, surface-based droplet platforms provide an opportunity to develop miniaturized diagnostic systems. These platforms may function as portable benchtop environments that dramatically shorten the transition of a benchtop assay into a point-of-care format.

Assessing fitness-for-duty and predicting performance with cognitive neurophysiological measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Michael E.; Gevins, Alan

2005-05-01

Progress is described in developing a novel test of neurocognitive status for fitness-for-duty testing. The Sustained Attention & Memory (SAM) test combines neurophysiologic (EEG) measures of brain activation with performance measures during a psychometric test of sustained attention and working memory, and then gauges changes in neurocognitive status relative to an individual"s normative baseline. In studies of the effects of common psychoactive substances that can affect job performance, including sedating antihistamines, caffeine, alcohol, marijuana, and prescription medications, test sensitivity was greater for the combined neurophysiological and performance measures than for task performance measures by themselves. The neurocognitive effects of overnight sleep deprivation were quite evident, and such effects predicted subsequent performance impairment on a flight simulator task. Sensitivity to diurnal circadian variations was also demonstrated. With further refinement and independent validation, the SAM Test may prove useful for assessing readiness-to-perform in high-asset personnel working in demanding, high risk situations.

Can We Predict Foraging Success in a Marine Predator from Dive Patterns Only? Validation with Prey Capture Attempt Data

PubMed Central

Viviant, Morgane; Monestiez, Pascal; Guinet, Christophe

2014-01-01

Predicting how climatic variations will affect marine predator populations relies on our ability to assess foraging success, but evaluating foraging success in a marine predator at sea is particularly difficult. Dive metrics are commonly available for marine mammals, diving birds and some species of fish. Bottom duration or dive duration are usually used as proxies for foraging success. However, few studies have tried to validate these assumptions and identify the set of behavioral variables that best predict foraging success at a given time scale. The objective of this study was to assess if foraging success in Antarctic fur seals could be accurately predicted from dive parameters only, at different temporal scales. For this study, 11 individuals were equipped with either Hall sensors or accelerometers to record dive profiles and detect mouth-opening events, which were considered prey capture attempts. The number of prey capture attempts was best predicted by descent and ascent rates at the dive scale; bottom duration and descent rates at 30-min, 1-h, and 2-h scales; and ascent rates and maximum dive depths at the all-night scale. Model performances increased with temporal scales, but rank and sign of the factors varied according to the time scale considered, suggesting that behavioral adjustment in response to prey distribution could occur at certain scales only. The models predicted the foraging intensity of new individuals with good accuracy despite high inter-individual differences. Dive metrics that predict foraging success depend on the species and the scale considered, as verified by the literature and this study. The methodology used in our study is easy to implement, enables an assessment of model performance, and could be applied to any other marine predator. PMID:24603534

Pooled individual patient data from five countries were used to derive a clinical prediction rule for coronary artery disease in primary care.

PubMed

Aerts, Marc; Minalu, Girma; Bösner, Stefan; Buntinx, Frank; Burnand, Bernard; Haasenritter, Jörg; Herzig, Lilli; Knottnerus, J André; Nilsson, Staffan; Renier, Walter; Sox, Carol; Sox, Harold; Donner-Banzhoff, Norbert

2017-01-01

To construct a clinical prediction rule for coronary artery disease (CAD) presenting with chest pain in primary care. Meta-Analysis using 3,099 patients from five studies. To identify candidate predictors, we used random forest trees, multiple imputation of missing values, and logistic regression within individual studies. To generate a prediction rule on the pooled data, we applied a regression model that took account of the differing standard data sets collected by the five studies. The most parsimonious rule included six equally weighted predictors: age ≥55 (males) or ≥65 (females) (+1); attending physician suspected a serious diagnosis (+1); history of CAD (+1); pain brought on by exertion (+1); pain feels like "pressure" (+1); pain reproducible by palpation (-1). CAD was considered absent if the prediction score is <2. The area under the ROC curve was 0.84. We applied this rule to a study setting with a CAD prevalence of 13.2% using a prediction score cutoff of <2 (i.e., -1, 0, or +1). When the score was <2, the probability of CAD was 2.1% (95% CI: 1.1-3.9%); when the score was ≥ 2, it was 43.0% (95% CI: 35.8-50.4%). Clinical prediction rules are a key strategy for individualizing care. Large data sets based on electronic health records from diverse sites create opportunities for improving their internal and external validity. Our patient-level meta-analysis from five primary care sites should improve external validity. Our strategy for addressing site-to-site systematic variation in missing data should improve internal validity. Using principles derived from decision theory, we also discuss the problem of setting the cutoff prediction score for taking action. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lake nutrient stoichiometry is less predictable than nutrient concentrations at regional and sub-continental scales.

PubMed

Collins, Sarah M; Oliver, Samantha K; Lapierre, Jean-Francois; Stanley, Emily H; Jones, John R; Wagner, Tyler; Soranno, Patricia A

2017-07-01

Production in many ecosystems is co-limited by multiple elements. While a known suite of drivers associated with nutrient sources, nutrient transport, and internal processing controls concentrations of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in lakes, much less is known about whether the drivers of single nutrient concentrations can also explain spatial or temporal variation in lake N:P stoichiometry. Predicting stoichiometry might be more complex than predicting concentrations of individual elements because some drivers have similar relationships with N and P, leading to a weak relationship with their ratio. Further, the dominant controls on elemental concentrations likely vary across regions, resulting in context dependent relationships between drivers, lake nutrients and their ratios. Here, we examine whether known drivers of N and P concentrations can explain variation in N:P stoichiometry, and whether explaining variation in stoichiometry differs across regions. We examined drivers of N:P in ~2,700 lakes at a sub-continental scale and two large regions nested within the sub-continental study area that have contrasting ecological context, including differences in the dominant type of land cover (agriculture vs. forest). At the sub-continental scale, lake nutrient concentrations were correlated with nutrient loading and lake internal processing, but stoichiometry was only weakly correlated to drivers of lake nutrients. At the regional scale, drivers that explained variation in nutrients and stoichiometry differed between regions. In the Midwestern U.S. region, dominated by agricultural land use, lake depth and the percentage of row crop agriculture were strong predictors of stoichiometry because only phosphorus was related to lake depth and only nitrogen was related to the percentage of row crop agriculture. In contrast, all drivers were related to N and P in similar ways in the Northeastern U.S. region, leading to weak relationships between drivers and stoichiometry. Our results suggest ecological context mediates controls on lake nutrients and stoichiometry. Predicting stoichiometry was generally more difficult than predicting nutrient concentrations, but human activity may decouple N and P, leading to better prediction of N:P stoichiometry in regions with high anthropogenic activity. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Accounting for dominance to improve genomic evaluations of dairy cows for fertility and milk production traits.

PubMed

Aliloo, Hassan; Pryce, Jennie E; González-Recio, Oscar; Cocks, Benjamin G; Hayes, Ben J

2016-02-01

Dominance effects may contribute to genetic variation of complex traits in dairy cattle, especially for traits closely related to fitness such as fertility. However, traditional genetic evaluations generally ignore dominance effects and consider additive genetic effects only. Availability of dense single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) panels provides the opportunity to investigate the role of dominance in quantitative variation of complex traits at both the SNP and animal levels. Including dominance effects in the genomic evaluation of animals could also help to increase the accuracy of prediction of future phenotypes. In this study, we estimated additive and dominance variance components for fertility and milk production traits of genotyped Holstein and Jersey cows in Australia. The predictive abilities of a model that accounts for additive effects only (additive), and a model that accounts for both additive and dominance effects (additive + dominance) were compared in a fivefold cross-validation. Estimates of the proportion of dominance variation relative to phenotypic variation that is captured by SNPs, for production traits, were up to 3.8 and 7.1 % in Holstein and Jersey cows, respectively, whereas, for fertility, they were equal to 1.2 % in Holstein and very close to zero in Jersey cows. We found that including dominance in the model was not consistently advantageous. Based on maximum likelihood ratio tests, the additive + dominance model fitted the data better than the additive model, for milk, fat and protein yields in both breeds. However, regarding the prediction of phenotypes assessed with fivefold cross-validation, including dominance effects in the model improved accuracy only for fat yield in Holstein cows. Regression coefficients of phenotypes on genetic values and mean squared errors of predictions showed that the predictive ability of the additive + dominance model was superior to that of the additive model for some of the traits. In both breeds, dominance effects were significant (P < 0.01) for all milk production traits but not for fertility. Accuracy of prediction of phenotypes was slightly increased by including dominance effects in the genomic evaluation model. Thus, it can help to better identify highly performing individuals and be useful for culling decisions.

Lake nutrient stoichiometry is less predictable than nutrient concentrations at regional and sub-continental scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collins, Sarah M.; Oliver, Samantha K.; Lapierre, Jean-Francois; Stanley, Emily H.; Jones, John R.; Wagner, Tyler; Soranno, Patricia A.

2017-01-01

Production in many ecosystems is co-limited by multiple elements. While a known suite of drivers associated with nutrient sources, nutrient transport, and internal processing controls concentrations of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in lakes, much less is known about whether the drivers of single nutrient concentrations can also explain spatial or temporal variation in lake N:P stoichiometry. Predicting stoichiometry might be more complex than predicting concentrations of individual elements because some drivers have similar relationships with N and P, leading to a weak relationship with their ratio. Further, the dominant controls on elemental concentrations likely vary across regions, resulting in context dependent relationships between drivers, lake nutrients and their ratios. Here, we examine whether known drivers of N and P concentrations can explain variation in N:P stoichiometry, and whether explaining variation in stoichiometry differs across regions. We examined drivers of N:P in ~2,700 lakes at a sub-continental scale and two large regions nested within the sub-continental study area that have contrasting ecological context, including differences in the dominant type of land cover (agriculture vs. forest). At the sub-continental scale, lake nutrient concentrations were correlated with nutrient loading and lake internal processing, but stoichiometry was only weakly correlated to drivers of lake nutrients. At the regional scale, drivers that explained variation in nutrients and stoichiometry differed between regions. In the Midwestern U.S. region, dominated by agricultural land use, lake depth and the percentage of row crop agriculture were strong predictors of stoichiometry because only phosphorus was related to lake depth and only nitrogen was related to the percentage of row crop agriculture. In contrast, all drivers were related to N and P in similar ways in the Northeastern U.S. region, leading to weak relationships between drivers and stoichiometry. Our results suggest ecological context mediates controls on lake nutrients and stoichiometry. Predicting stoichiometry was generally more difficult than predicting nutrient concentrations, but human activity may decouple N and P, leading to better prediction of N:P stoichiometry in regions with high anthropogenic activity.

Individuals in food webs: the relationships between trophic position, omnivory and among-individual diet variation.

PubMed

Svanbäck, Richard; Quevedo, Mario; Olsson, Jens; Eklöv, Peter

2015-05-01

Among-individual diet variation is common in natural populations and may occur at any trophic level within a food web. Yet, little is known about its variation among trophic levels and how such variation could affect phenotypic divergence within populations. In this study we investigate the relationships between trophic position (the population's range and average) and among-individual diet variation. We test for diet variation among individuals and across size classes of Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis), a widespread predatory freshwater fish that undergoes ontogenetic niche shifts. Second, we investigate among-individual diet variation within fish and invertebrate populations in two different lake communities using stable isotopes. Third, we test potential evolutionary implications of population trophic position by assessing the relationship between the proportion of piscivorous perch (populations of higher trophic position) and the degree of phenotypic divergence between littoral and pelagic perch sub-populations. We show that among-individual diet variation is highest at intermediate trophic positions, and that this high degree of among-individual variation likely causes an increase in the range of trophic positions among individuals. We also found that phenotypic divergence was negatively related to trophic position in a population. This study thus shows that trophic position is related to and may be important for among-individual diet variation as well as to phenotypic divergence within populations.

Oceanographic variation influences spatial genomic structure in the sea scallop, Placopecten magellanicus.

PubMed

Van Wyngaarden, Mallory; Snelgrove, Paul V R; DiBacco, Claudio; Hamilton, Lorraine C; Rodríguez-Ezpeleta, Naiara; Zhan, Luyao; Beiko, Robert G; Bradbury, Ian R

2018-03-01

Environmental factors can influence diversity and population structure in marine species and accurate understanding of this influence can both improve fisheries management and help predict responses to environmental change. We used 7163 SNPs derived from restriction site-associated DNA sequencing genotyped in 245 individuals of the economically important sea scallop, Placopecten magellanicus , to evaluate the correlations between oceanographic variation and a previously identified latitudinal genomic cline. Sea scallops span a broad latitudinal area (>10 degrees), and we hypothesized that climatic variation significantly drives clinal trends in allele frequency. Using a large environmental dataset, including temperature, salinity, chlorophyll a, and nutrient concentrations, we identified a suite of SNPs (285-621, depending on analysis and environmental dataset) potentially under selection through correlations with environmental variation. Principal components analysis of different outlier SNPs and environmental datasets revealed similar northern and southern clusters, with significant associations between the first axes of each ( R 2 adj  = .66-.79). Multivariate redundancy analysis of outlier SNPs and the environmental principal components indicated that environmental factors explained more than 32% of the variance. Similarly, multiple linear regressions and random-forest analysis identified winter average and minimum ocean temperatures as significant parameters in the link between genetic and environmental variation. This work indicates that oceanographic variation is associated with the observed genomic cline in this species and that seasonal periods of extreme cold may restrict gene flow along a latitudinal gradient in this marine benthic bivalve. Incorporating this finding into management may improve accuracy of management strategies and future predictions.

Sexual Dimorphism in Melanin Pigmentation, Feather Coloration and Its Heritability in the Barn Swallow (Hirundo rustica)

PubMed Central

Saino, Nicola; Romano, Maria; Rubolini, Diego; Teplitsky, Celine; Ambrosini, Roberto; Caprioli, Manuela; Canova, Luca; Wakamatsu, Kazumasa

2013-01-01

Melanin is the main pigment in animal coloration and considerable variation in the concentrations of the two melanin forms (pheo- and eumlanin) in pigmented tissues exists among populations and individuals. Melanin-based coloration is receiving increasing attention particularly in socio-sexual communication contexts because the melanocortin system has been hypothesized to provide a mechanistic basis for covariation between coloration and fitness traits. However, with few notable exceptions, little detailed information is available on inter-individual and inter-population variation in melanin pigmentation and on its environmental, genetic and ontogenetic components. Here, we investigate melanin-based coloration in an Italian population of a passerine bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica rustica), its sex- and age-related variation, and heritability. The concentrations of eu- and pheomelanin in the throat (brown) and belly (white-to-brownish) feathers differed between sexes but not according to age. The relative concentration of either melanin (Pheo:Eu) differed between sexes in throat but not in belly feathers, and the concentrations in males compared to females were larger in belly than in throat feathers. There were weak correlations between the concentrations of melanins within as well as among plumage regions. Coloration of belly feathers was predicted by the concentration of both melanins whereas coloration of throat feathers was only predicted by pheomelanin in females. In addition, Pheo:Eu predicted coloration of throat feathers in females and that of belly feathers in males. Finally, we found high heritability of color of throat feathers. Melanization was found to differ from that recorded in Hirundo rustica rustica from Scotland or from H. r. erythrogaster from North America. Hence, present results show that pigmentation strategies vary in a complex manner according to sex and plumage region, and also among geographical populations, potentially reflecting adaptation to different natural and sexual selection regimes, and that some coloration components seem to be highly heritable. PMID:23469134

Variability amongst radiographers in the categorization of clinical acceptability for digital trauma radiography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decoster, Robin; Toomey, Rachel; Smits, Dirk; Mol, Harrie; Verhelle, Filip; Butler, Marie-Louise

2016-03-01

Introduction: Radiographers evaluate anatomical structures to judge clinical acceptability of a radiograph. Whether a radiograph is deemed acceptable for diagnosis or not depends on the individual decision of the radiographer. Individual decisions cause variation in the accepted image quality. To minimise these variations definitions of acceptability, such as in RadLex, were developed. On which criteria radiographers attribute a RadLex categories to radiographs is unknown. Insight into these criteria helps to further optimise definitions and reduce variability in acceptance between radiographers. Therefore, this work aims the evaluation of the correlation between the RadLex classification and the evaluation of anatomical structures, using a Visual Grading Analysis (VGA) Methods: Four radiographers evaluated the visibility of five anatomical structures of 25 lateral cervical spine radiographs on a secondary class display with a VGA. They judged clinical acceptability of each radiograph using RadLex. Relations between VGAS and RadLex category were analysed with Kendall's Tau correlation and Nagelkerke pseudo-R². Results: The overall VGA score (VGAS) and the RadLex score correlate (rτ= 0.62, p<0.01, R2=0.72) strongly. The observers' evaluation of contrast between bone, air (trachea) and soft tissue has low value in predicting (rτ=0.55, p<0.01, R2=0.03) the RadLex score. The reproduction of spinous processes (rτ=0.67, p<0.01, R2=0.31) and the evaluation of the exposure (rτ=0.65, p<0.01, R2=0.56) have a strong correlation with high predictive value for the RadLex score. Conclusion: RadLex scores and VGAS correlate positively, strongly and significantly. The predictive value of bony structures may support the use of these in the judgement of clinical acceptability. Considerable inter-observer variations in the VGAS within a certain RadLex category, suggest that observers use of observer specific cut-off values.

Mate-finding as an overlooked critical determinant of dispersal variation in sexually-reproducing animals.

PubMed

Gilroy, James J; Lockwood, Julie L

2012-01-01

Dispersal is a critically important process in ecology, but robust predictive models of animal dispersal remain elusive. We identify a potentially ubiquitous component of variation in animal dispersal that has been largely overlooked until now: the influence of mate encounters on settlement probability. We use an individual-based model to simulate dispersal in sexually-reproducing organisms that follow a simple set of movement rules based on conspecific encounters, within an environment lacking spatial habitat heterogeneity. We show that dispersal distances vary dramatically with fluctuations in population density in such a model, even in the absence of variation in dispersive traits between individuals. In a simple random-walk model with promiscuous mating, dispersal distributions become increasingly 'fat-tailed' at low population densities due to the increasing scarcity of mates. Similar variation arises in models incorporating territoriality. In a model with polygynous mating, we show that patterns of sex-biased dispersal can even be reversed across a gradient of population density, despite underlying dispersal mechanisms remaining unchanged. We show that some widespread dispersal patterns found in nature (e.g. fat tailed distributions) can arise as a result of demographic variability in the absence of heterogeneity in dispersive traits across the population. This implies that models in which individual dispersal distances are considered to be fixed traits might be unrealistic, as dispersal distances vary widely under a single dispersal mechanism when settlement is influenced by mate encounters. Mechanistic models offer a promising means of advancing our understanding of dispersal in sexually-reproducing organisms.

Individual Variation in Incentive Salience Attribution and Accumbens Dopamine Transporter Expression and Function

PubMed Central

Singer, Bryan F.; Guptaroy, Bipasha; Austin, Curtis J.; Wohl, Isabella; Lovic, Vedran; Seiler, Jillian L; Vaughan, Roxanne A.; Gnegy, Margaret E.; Robinson, Terry E.; Aragona, Brandon J.

2015-01-01

Cues (conditioned stimuli; CSs) associated with rewards can come to motivate behavior, but there is considerable individual variation in their ability to do so. For example, a lever-CS that predicts food reward becomes attractive, wanted, and elicits reward-seeking behavior to a greater extent in some rats (“sign-trackers”; STs), than others (“goal-trackers”; GTs). Variation in dopamine (DA) neurotransmission in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) core is thought to contribute to such individual variation. Given that the DA transporter (DAT) exerts powerful regulation over DA signaling, we characterized the expression and function of the DAT in the accumbens of STs and GTs. STs showed greater DAT surface expression in ventral striatal synaptosomes than GTs, and ex vivo fast-scan cyclic voltammetry recordings of electrically-evoked DA release confirmed enhanced DAT function in STs, as indicated by faster DA uptake, specifically in the NAc core. Consistent with this, systemic amphetamine (AMPH) produced greater inhibition of DA uptake in STs than in GTs. Furthermore, injection of AMPH directly into the NAc core enhanced lever-directed approach in STs, presumably by amplifying the incentive value of the CS, but had no effect on goal tracking behavior. On the other hand, there were no differences between STs and GTs in electrically-evoked DA release in slices, or in total ventral striatal DA content. We conclude that greater DAT surface expression may facilitate the attribution of incentive salience to discrete reward cues. Investigating this variability in animal sub-populations may help explain why some people abuse drugs, while others do not. PMID:26613374

Frontal Theta Reflects Uncertainty and Unexpectedness during Exploration and Exploitation

PubMed Central

Figueroa, Christina M.; Cohen, Michael X; Frank, Michael J.

2012-01-01

In order to understand the exploitation/exploration trade-off in reinforcement learning, previous theoretical and empirical accounts have suggested that increased uncertainty may precede the decision to explore an alternative option. To date, the neural mechanisms that support the strategic application of uncertainty-driven exploration remain underspecified. In this study, electroencephalography (EEG) was used to assess trial-to-trial dynamics relevant to exploration and exploitation. Theta-band activities over middle and lateral frontal areas have previously been implicated in EEG studies of reinforcement learning and strategic control. It was hypothesized that these areas may interact during top-down strategic behavioral control involved in exploratory choices. Here, we used a dynamic reward–learning task and an associated mathematical model that predicted individual response times. This reinforcement-learning model generated value-based prediction errors and trial-by-trial estimates of exploration as a function of uncertainty. Mid-frontal theta power correlated with unsigned prediction error, although negative prediction errors had greater power overall. Trial-to-trial variations in response-locked frontal theta were linearly related to relative uncertainty and were larger in individuals who used uncertainty to guide exploration. This finding suggests that theta-band activities reflect prefrontal-directed strategic control during exploratory choices. PMID:22120491

Modeling the influence of local environmental factors on malaria transmission in Benin and its implications for cohort study.

PubMed

Cottrell, Gilles; Kouwaye, Bienvenue; Pierrat, Charlotte; le Port, Agnès; Bouraïma, Aziz; Fonton, Noël; Hounkonnou, Mahouton Norbert; Massougbodji, Achille; Corbel, Vincent; Garcia, André

2012-01-01

Malaria remains endemic in tropical areas, especially in Africa. For the evaluation of new tools and to further our understanding of host-parasite interactions, knowing the environmental risk of transmission--even at a very local scale--is essential. The aim of this study was to assess how malaria transmission is influenced and can be predicted by local climatic and environmental factors.As the entomological part of a cohort study of 650 newborn babies in nine villages in the Tori Bossito district of Southern Benin between June 2007 and February 2010, human landing catches were performed to assess the density of malaria vectors and transmission intensity. Climatic factors as well as household characteristics were recorded throughout the study. Statistical correlations between Anopheles density and environmental and climatic factors were tested using a three-level Poisson mixed regression model. The results showed both temporal variations in vector density (related to season and rainfall), and spatial variations at the level of both village and house. These spatial variations could be largely explained by factors associated with the house's immediate surroundings, namely soil type, vegetation index and the proximity of a watercourse. Based on these results, a predictive regression model was developed using a leave-one-out method, to predict the spatiotemporal variability of malaria transmission in the nine villages.This study points up the importance of local environmental factors in malaria transmission and describes a model to predict the transmission risk of individual children, based on environmental and behavioral characteristics.

Edaphic history over seedling characters predicts integration and plasticity of integration across geologically variable populations of Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Cousins, Elsa A; Murren, Courtney J

2017-12-01

Studies on phenotypic plasticity and plasticity of integration have uncovered functionally linked modules of aboveground traits and seedlings of Arabidopsis thaliana , but we lack details about belowground variation in adult plants. Functional modules can be comprised of additional suites of traits that respond to environmental variation. We assessed whether shoot and root responses to nutrient environments in adult A. thaliana were predictable from seedling traits or population-specific geologic soil characteristics at the site of origin. We compared 17 natural accessions from across the native range of A. thaliana using 14-day-old seedlings grown on agar or sand and plants grown to maturity across nutrient treatments in sand. We measured aboveground size, reproduction, timing traits, root length, and root diameter. Edaphic characteristics were obtained from a global-scale dataset and related to field data. We detected significant among-population variation in root traits of seedlings and adults and in plasticity in aboveground and belowground traits of adult plants. Phenotypic integration of roots and shoots varied by population and environment. Relative integration was greater in roots than in shoots, and integration was predicted by edaphic soil history, particularly organic carbon content, whereas seedling traits did not predict later ontogenetic stages. Soil environment of origin has significant effects on phenotypic plasticity in response to nutrients, and on phenotypic integration of root modules and shoot modules. Root traits varied among populations in reproductively mature individuals, indicating potential for adaptive and integrated functional responses of root systems in annuals. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

Species distribution models predict temporal but not spatial variation in forest growth.

PubMed

van der Maaten, Ernst; Hamann, Andreas; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke; Bergsma, Aldo; Hengeveld, Geerten; van Lammeren, Ron; Mohren, Frits; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; Terhürne, Renske; Sterck, Frank

2017-04-01

Bioclimate envelope models have been widely used to illustrate the discrepancy between current species distributions and their potential habitat under climate change. However, the realism and correct interpretation of such projections has been the subject of considerable discussion. Here, we investigate whether climate suitability predictions correlate to tree growth, measured in permanent inventory plots and inferred from tree-ring records. We use the ensemble classifier RandomForest and species occurrence data from ~200,000 inventory plots to build species distribution models for four important European forestry species: Norway spruce, Scots pine, European beech, and pedunculate oak. We then correlate climate-based habitat suitability with volume measurements from ~50-year-old stands, available from ~11,000 inventory plots. Secondly, habitat projections based on annual historical climate are compared with ring width from ~300 tree-ring chronologies. Our working hypothesis is that habitat suitability projections from species distribution models should to some degree be associated with temporal or spatial variation in these growth records. We find that the habitat projections are uncorrelated with spatial growth records (inventory plot data), but they do predict interannual variation in tree-ring width, with an average correlation of .22. Correlation coefficients for individual chronologies range from values as high as .82 or as low as -.31. We conclude that tree responses to projected climate change are highly site-specific and that local suitability of a species for reforestation is difficult to predict. That said, projected increase or decrease in climatic suitability may be interpreted as an average expectation of increased or reduced growth over larger geographic scales.

Modeling the Influence of Local Environmental Factors on Malaria Transmission in Benin and Its Implications for Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Pierrat, Charlotte; le Port, Agnès; Bouraïma, Aziz; Fonton, Noël; Hounkonnou, Mahouton Norbert; Massougbodji, Achille; Corbel, Vincent; Garcia, André

2012-01-01

Malaria remains endemic in tropical areas, especially in Africa. For the evaluation of new tools and to further our understanding of host-parasite interactions, knowing the environmental risk of transmission—even at a very local scale—is essential. The aim of this study was to assess how malaria transmission is influenced and can be predicted by local climatic and environmental factors. As the entomological part of a cohort study of 650 newborn babies in nine villages in the Tori Bossito district of Southern Benin between June 2007 and February 2010, human landing catches were performed to assess the density of malaria vectors and transmission intensity. Climatic factors as well as household characteristics were recorded throughout the study. Statistical correlations between Anopheles density and environmental and climatic factors were tested using a three-level Poisson mixed regression model. The results showed both temporal variations in vector density (related to season and rainfall), and spatial variations at the level of both village and house. These spatial variations could be largely explained by factors associated with the house's immediate surroundings, namely soil type, vegetation index and the proximity of a watercourse. Based on these results, a predictive regression model was developed using a leave-one-out method, to predict the spatiotemporal variability of malaria transmission in the nine villages. This study points up the importance of local environmental factors in malaria transmission and describes a model to predict the transmission risk of individual children, based on environmental and behavioral characteristics. PMID:22238582

How Sensitive Are Transdermal Transport Predictions by Microscopic Stratum Corneum Models to Geometric and Transport Parameter Input?

PubMed

Wen, Jessica; Koo, Soh Myoung; Lape, Nancy

2018-02-01

While predictive models of transdermal transport have the potential to reduce human and animal testing, microscopic stratum corneum (SC) model output is highly dependent on idealized SC geometry, transport pathway (transcellular vs. intercellular), and penetrant transport parameters (e.g., compound diffusivity in lipids). Most microscopic models are limited to a simple rectangular brick-and-mortar SC geometry and do not account for variability across delivery sites, hydration levels, and populations. In addition, these models rely on transport parameters obtained from pure theory, parameter fitting to match in vivo experiments, and time-intensive diffusion experiments for each compound. In this work, we develop a microscopic finite element model that allows us to probe model sensitivity to variations in geometry, transport pathway, and hydration level. Given the dearth of experimentally-validated transport data and the wide range in theoretically-predicted transport parameters, we examine the model's response to a variety of transport parameters reported in the literature. Results show that model predictions are strongly dependent on all aforementioned variations, resulting in order-of-magnitude differences in lag times and permeabilities for distinct structure, hydration, and parameter combinations. This work demonstrates that universally predictive models cannot fully succeed without employing experimentally verified transport parameters and individualized SC structures. Copyright © 2018 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genetic Variation in Cardiomyopathy and Cardiovascular Disorders.

PubMed

McNally, Elizabeth M; Puckelwartz, Megan J

2015-01-01

With the wider deployment of massively-parallel, next-generation sequencing, it is now possible to survey human genome data for research and clinical purposes. The reduced cost of producing short-read sequencing has now shifted the burden to data analysis. Analysis of genome sequencing remains challenged by the complexity of the human genome, including redundancy and the repetitive nature of genome elements and the large amount of variation in individual genomes. Public databases of human genome sequences greatly facilitate interpretation of common and rare genetic variation, although linking database sequence information to detailed clinical information is limited by privacy and practical issues. Genetic variation is a rich source of knowledge for cardiovascular disease because many, if not all, cardiovascular disorders are highly heritable. The role of rare genetic variation in predicting risk and complications of cardiovascular diseases has been well established for hypertrophic and dilated cardiomyopathy, where the number of genes that are linked to these disorders is growing. Bolstered by family data, where genetic variants segregate with disease, rare variation can be linked to specific genetic variation that offers profound diagnostic information. Understanding genetic variation in cardiomyopathy is likely to help stratify forms of heart failure and guide therapy. Ultimately, genetic variation may be amenable to gene correction and gene editing strategies.

Importance of the habitat choice behavior assumed when modeling the effects of food and temperature on fish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Lamberson, Peter J.

2004-01-01

Various mechanisms of habitat choice in fishes based on food and/or temperature have been proposed: optimal foraging for food alone; behavioral thermoregulation for temperature alone; and behavioral energetics and discounted matching for food and temperature combined. Along with development of habitat choice mechanisms, there has been a major push to develop and apply to fish populations individual-based models that incorporate various forms of these mechanisms. However, it is not known how the wide variation in observed and hypothesized mechanisms of fish habitat choice could alter fish population predictions (e.g. growth, size distributions, etc.). We used spatially explicit, individual-based modeling to compare predicted fish populations using different submodels of patch choice behavior under various food and temperature distributions. We compared predicted growth, temperature experience, food consumption, and final spatial distribution using the different models. Our results demonstrated that the habitat choice mechanism assumed in fish population modeling simulations was critical to predictions of fish distribution and growth rates. Hence, resource managers who use modeling results to predict fish population trends should be very aware of and understand the underlying patch choice mechanisms used in their models to assure that those mechanisms correctly represent the fish populations being modeled.

Estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Childress, Evan; Letcher, Benjamin H.

2017-01-01

Estimating thermal performance of organisms is critical for understanding population distributions and dynamics and predicting responses to climate change. Typically, performance curves are estimated using laboratory studies to isolate temperature effects, but other abiotic and biotic factors influence temperature-performance relationships in nature reducing these models' predictive ability. We present a model for estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations that includes environmental and individual variation. We fit the model in a Bayesian framework using MCMC sampling, which allowed for estimation of unobserved latent growth while propagating uncertainty. Fitting the model to simulated data varying in sampling design and parameter values demonstrated that the parameter estimates were accurate, precise, and unbiased. Fitting the model to individual growth data from wild trout revealed high out-of-sample predictive ability relative to laboratory-derived models, which produced more biased predictions for field performance. The field-based estimates of thermal maxima were lower than those based on laboratory studies. Under warming temperature scenarios, field-derived performance models predicted stronger declines in body size than laboratory-derived models, suggesting that laboratory-based models may underestimate climate change effects. The presented model estimates true, realized field performance, avoiding assumptions required for applying laboratory-based models to field performance, which should improve estimates of performance under climate change and advance thermal ecology.

Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change

PubMed Central

Longo, Marcos; Baccini, Alessandro; Phillips, Oliver L.; Lewis, Simon L.; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina; Brienen, Roel J. W.; Erwin, Terry L.; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo; Nuñez Vargas, Percy; Prieto, Adriana; Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R.

2016-01-01

Amazon forests, which store ∼50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem’s resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest’s response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions. PMID:26711984

Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change.

PubMed

Levine, Naomi M; Zhang, Ke; Longo, Marcos; Baccini, Alessandro; Phillips, Oliver L; Lewis, Simon L; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina; Brienen, Roel J W; Erwin, Terry L; Feldpausch, Ted R; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo; Nuñez Vargas, Percy; Prieto, Adriana; Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R

2016-01-19

Amazon forests, which store ∼ 50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.

Local environmental quality positively predicts breastfeeding in the UK’s Millennium Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Sear, Rebecca

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background and Objectives: Breastfeeding is an important form of parental investment with clear health benefits. Despite this, rates remain low in the UK; understanding variation can therefore help improve interventions. Life history theory suggests that environmental quality may pattern maternal investment, including breastfeeding. We analyse a nationally representative dataset to test two predictions: (i) higher local environmental quality predicts higher likelihood of breastfeeding initiation and longer duration; (ii) higher socioeconomic status (SES) provides a buffer against the adverse influences of low local environmental quality. Methodology: We ran factor analysis on a wide range of local-level environmental variables. Two summary measures of local environmental quality were generated by this analysis—one ‘objective’ (based on an independent assessor’s neighbourhood scores) and one ‘subjective’ (based on respondent’s scores). We used mixed-effects regression techniques to test our hypotheses. Results: Higher objective, but not subjective, local environmental quality predicts higher likelihood of starting and maintaining breastfeeding over and above individual SES and area-level measures of environmental quality. Higher individual SES is protective, with women from high-income households having relatively high breastfeeding initiation rates and those with high status jobs being more likely to maintain breastfeeding, even in poor environmental conditions. Conclusions and Implications: Environmental quality is often vaguely measured; here we present a thorough investigation of environmental quality at the local level, controlling for individual- and area-level measures. Our findings support a shift in focus away from individual factors and towards altering the landscape of women’s decision making contexts when considering behaviours relevant to public health. PMID:29354262

Local environmental quality positively predicts breastfeeding in the UK's Millennium Cohort Study.

PubMed

Brown, Laura J; Sear, Rebecca

2017-01-01

Background and Objectives: Breastfeeding is an important form of parental investment with clear health benefits. Despite this, rates remain low in the UK; understanding variation can therefore help improve interventions. Life history theory suggests that environmental quality may pattern maternal investment, including breastfeeding. We analyse a nationally representative dataset to test two predictions: (i) higher local environmental quality predicts higher likelihood of breastfeeding initiation and longer duration; (ii) higher socioeconomic status (SES) provides a buffer against the adverse influences of low local environmental quality. Methodology: We ran factor analysis on a wide range of local-level environmental variables. Two summary measures of local environmental quality were generated by this analysis-one 'objective' (based on an independent assessor's neighbourhood scores) and one 'subjective' (based on respondent's scores). We used mixed-effects regression techniques to test our hypotheses. Results: Higher objective, but not subjective, local environmental quality predicts higher likelihood of starting and maintaining breastfeeding over and above individual SES and area-level measures of environmental quality. Higher individual SES is protective, with women from high-income households having relatively high breastfeeding initiation rates and those with high status jobs being more likely to maintain breastfeeding, even in poor environmental conditions. Conclusions and Implications: Environmental quality is often vaguely measured; here we present a thorough investigation of environmental quality at the local level, controlling for individual- and area-level measures. Our findings support a shift in focus away from individual factors and towards altering the landscape of women's decision making contexts when considering behaviours relevant to public health.

Global and disease-associated genetic variation in the human Fanconi anemia gene family.

PubMed

Rogers, Kai J; Fu, Wenqing; Akey, Joshua M; Monnat, Raymond J

2014-12-20

Fanconi anemia (FA) is a human recessive genetic disease resulting from inactivating mutations in any of 16 FANC (Fanconi) genes. Individuals with FA are at high risk of developmental abnormalities, early bone marrow failure and leukemia. These are followed in the second and subsequent decades by a very high risk of carcinomas of the head and neck and anogenital region, and a small continuing risk of leukemia. In order to characterize base pair-level disease-associated (DA) and population genetic variation in FANC genes and the segregation of this variation in the human population, we identified 2948 unique FANC gene variants including 493 FA DA variants across 57,240 potential base pair variation sites in the 16 FANC genes. We then analyzed the segregation of this variation in the 7578 subjects included in the Exome Sequencing Project (ESP) and the 1000 Genomes Project (1KGP). There was a remarkably high frequency of FA DA variants in ESP/1KGP subjects: at least 1 FA DA variant was identified in 78.5% (5950 of 7578) individuals included in these two studies. Six widely used functional prediction algorithms correctly identified only a third of the known, DA FANC missense variants. We also identified FA DA variants that may be good candidates for different types of mutation-specific therapies. Our results demonstrate the power of direct DNA sequencing to detect, estimate the frequency of and follow the segregation of deleterious genetic variation in human populations. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impact of volunteer-related and methodology-related factors on the reproducibility of brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilation: analysis of 672 individual repeated measurements.

PubMed

van Mil, Anke C C M; Greyling, Arno; Zock, Peter L; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Hopman, Maria T; Mensink, Ronald P; Reesink, Koen D; Green, Daniel J; Ghiadoni, Lorenzo; Thijssen, Dick H

2016-09-01

Brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD) is a popular technique to examine endothelial function in humans. Identifying volunteer and methodological factors related to variation in FMD is important to improve measurement accuracy and applicability. Volunteer-related and methodology-related parameters were collected in 672 volunteers from eight affiliated centres worldwide who underwent repeated measures of FMD. All centres adopted contemporary expert-consensus guidelines for FMD assessment. After calculating the coefficient of variation (%) of the FMD for each individual, we constructed quartiles (n = 168 per quartile). Based on two regression models (volunteer-related factors and methodology-related factors), statistically significant components of these two models were added to a final regression model (calculated as β-coefficient and R). This allowed us to identify factors that independently contributed to the variation in FMD%. Median coefficient of variation was 17.5%, with healthy volunteers demonstrating a coefficient of variation 9.3%. Regression models revealed age (β = 0.248, P < 0.001), hypertension (β = 0.104, P < 0.001), dyslipidemia (β = 0.331, P < 0.001), time between measurements (β = 0.318, P < 0.001), lab experience (β = -0.133, P < 0.001) and baseline FMD% (β = 0.082, P < 0.05) as contributors to the coefficient of variation. After including all significant factors in the final model, we found that time between measurements, hypertension, baseline FMD% and lab experience with FMD independently predicted brachial artery variability (total R = 0.202). Although FMD% showed good reproducibility, larger variation was observed in conditions with longer time between measurements, hypertension, less experience and lower baseline FMD%. Accounting for these factors may improve FMD% variability.

Segregating YKU80 and TLC1 alleles underlying natural variation in telomere properties in wild yeast.

PubMed

Liti, Gianni; Haricharan, Svasti; Cubillos, Francisco A; Tierney, Anna L; Sharp, Sarah; Bertuch, Alison A; Parts, Leopold; Bailes, Elizabeth; Louis, Edward J

2009-09-01

In yeast, as in humans, telomere length varies among individuals and is controlled by multiple loci. In a quest to define the extent of variation in telomere length, we screened 112 wild-type Saccharomyces sensu stricto isolates. We found extensive telomere length variation in S. paradoxus isolates. This phenotype correlated with their geographic origin: European strains were observed to have extremely short telomeres (<150 bp), whereas American isolates had telomeres approximately three times as long (>400 bp). Insertions of a URA3 gene near telomeres allowed accurate analysis of individual telomere lengths and telomere position effect (TPE). Crossing the American and European strains resulted in F1 spores with a continuum of telomere lengths consistent with what would be predicted if many quantitative trait loci (QTLs) were involved in length maintenance. Variation in TPE is similarly quantitative but only weakly correlated with telomere length. Genotyping F1 segregants indicated several QTLs associated with telomere length and silencing variation. These QTLs include likely candidate genes but also map to regions where there are no known genes involved in telomeric properties. We detected transgressive segregation for both phenotypes. We validated by reciprocal hemizygosity that YKU80 and TLC1 are telomere-length QTLs in the two S. paradoxus subpopulations. Furthermore, we propose that sequence divergence within the Ku heterodimer generates negative epistasis within one of the allelic combinations (American-YKU70 and European-YKU80) resulting in very short telomeres.

Segregating YKU80 and TLC1 Alleles Underlying Natural Variation in Telomere Properties in Wild Yeast

PubMed Central

Liti, Gianni; Haricharan, Svasti; Cubillos, Francisco A.; Tierney, Anna L.; Sharp, Sarah; Bertuch, Alison A.; Parts, Leopold; Bailes, Elizabeth; Louis, Edward J.

2009-01-01

In yeast, as in humans, telomere length varies among individuals and is controlled by multiple loci. In a quest to define the extent of variation in telomere length, we screened 112 wild-type Saccharomyces sensu stricto isolates. We found extensive telomere length variation in S. paradoxus isolates. This phenotype correlated with their geographic origin: European strains were observed to have extremely short telomeres (<150 bp), whereas American isolates had telomeres approximately three times as long (>400 bp). Insertions of a URA3 gene near telomeres allowed accurate analysis of individual telomere lengths and telomere position effect (TPE). Crossing the American and European strains resulted in F1 spores with a continuum of telomere lengths consistent with what would be predicted if many quantitative trait loci (QTLs) were involved in length maintenance. Variation in TPE is similarly quantitative but only weakly correlated with telomere length. Genotyping F1 segregants indicated several QTLs associated with telomere length and silencing variation. These QTLs include likely candidate genes but also map to regions where there are no known genes involved in telomeric properties. We detected transgressive segregation for both phenotypes. We validated by reciprocal hemizygosity that YKU80 and TLC1 are telomere-length QTLs in the two S. paradoxus subpopulations. Furthermore, we propose that sequence divergence within the Ku heterodimer generates negative epistasis within one of the allelic combinations (American-YKU70 and European-YKU80) resulting in very short telomeres. PMID:19763176

Model of Tooth Morphogenesis Predicts Carabelli Cusp Expression, Size, and Symmetry in Humans

PubMed Central

Hunter, John P.; Guatelli-Steinberg, Debbie; Weston, Theresia C.; Durner, Ryan; Betsinger, Tracy K.

2010-01-01

Background The patterning cascade model of tooth morphogenesis accounts for shape development through the interaction of a small number of genes. In the model, gene expression both directs development and is controlled by the shape of developing teeth. Enamel knots (zones of nonproliferating epithelium) mark the future sites of cusps. In order to form, a new enamel knot must escape the inhibitory fields surrounding other enamel knots before crown components become spatially fixed as morphogenesis ceases. Because cusp location on a fully formed tooth reflects enamel knot placement and tooth size is limited by the cessation of morphogenesis, the model predicts that cusp expression varies with intercusp spacing relative to tooth size. Although previous studies in humans have supported the model's implications, here we directly test the model's predictions for the expression, size, and symmetry of Carabelli cusp, a variation present in many human populations. Methodology/Principal Findings In a dental cast sample of upper first molars (M1s) (187 rights, 189 lefts, and 185 antimeric pairs), we measured tooth area and intercusp distances with a Hirox digital microscope. We assessed Carabelli expression quantitatively as an area in a subsample and qualitatively using two typological schemes in the full sample. As predicted, low relative intercusp distance is associated with Carabelli expression in both right and left samples using either qualitative or quantitative measures. Furthermore, asymmetry in Carabelli area is associated with asymmetry in relative intercusp spacing. Conclusions/Significance These findings support the model's predictions for Carabelli cusp expression both across and within individuals. By comparing right-left pairs of the same individual, our data show that small variations in developmental timing or spacing of enamel knots can influence cusp pattern independently of genotype. Our findings suggest that during evolution new cusps may first appear as a result of small changes in the spacing of enamel knots relative to crown size. PMID:20689576

The magnetic sense and its use in long-distance navigation by animals.

PubMed

Walker, Michael M; Dennis, Todd E; Kirschvink, Joseph L

2002-12-01

True navigation by animals is likely to depend on events occurring in the individual cells that detect magnetic fields. Minimum thresholds of detection, perception and 'interpretation' of magnetic field stimuli must be met if animals are to use a magnetic sense to navigate. Recent technological advances in animal tracking devices now make it possible to test predictions from models of navigation based on the use of variations in magnetic intensity.

Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Tao; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Yan; Boote, Kenneth; Adam, Myriam; Bregaglio, Simone; Buis, Samuel; Confalonieri, Roberto; Fumoto, Tamon;

Early Auditory Evoked Potential Is Modulated by Selective Attention and Related to Individual Differences in Visual Working Memory Capacity

PubMed Central

Giuliano, Ryan J.; Karns, Christina M.; Neville, Helen J.; Hillyard, Steven A.

2015-01-01

A growing body of research suggests that the predictive power of working memory (WM) capacity for measures of intellectual aptitude is due to the ability to control attention and select relevant information. Crucially, attentional mechanisms implicated in controlling access to WM are assumed to be domain-general, yet reports of enhanced attentional abilities in individuals with larger WM capacities are primarily within the visual domain. Here, we directly test the link between WM capacity and early attentional gating across sensory domains, hypothesizing that measures of visual WM capacity should predict an individual’s capacity to allocate auditory selective attention. To address this question, auditory ERPs were recorded in a linguistic dichotic listening task, and individual differences in ERP modulations by attention were correlated with estimates of WM capacity obtained in a separate visual change detection task. Auditory selective attention enhanced ERP amplitudes at an early latency (ca. 70–90 msec), with larger P1 components elicited by linguistic probes embedded in an attended narrative. Moreover, this effect was associated with greater individual estimates of visual WM capacity. These findings support the view that domain-general attentional control mechanisms underlie the wide variation of WM capacity across individuals. PMID:25000526

Individual Differences in Typical Reappraisal Use Predict Amygdala and Prefrontal Responses

PubMed Central

Drabant, Emily M.; McRae, Kateri; Manuck, Stephen B.; Hariri, Ahmad R.; Gross, James J.

2010-01-01

Background Participants who are instructed to use reappraisal to downregulate negative emotion show decreased amygdala responses and increased prefrontal responses. However, it is not known whether individual differences in the tendency to use reappraisal manifests in similar neural responses when individuals are spontaneously confronted with negative situations. Such spontaneous emotion regulation might play an important role in normal and pathological responses to the emotional challenges of everyday life. Methods Fifty-six healthy women completed a blood oxygenation-level dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging challenge paradigm involving the perceptual processing of emotionally negative facial expressions. Participants also completed measures of typical emotion regulation use, trait anxiety, and neuroticism. Results Greater use of reappraisal in everyday life was related to decreased amygdala activity and increased prefrontal and parietal activity during the processing of negative emotional facial expressions. These associations were not attributable to variation in trait anxiety, neuroticism, or the use of another common form of emotion regulation, namely suppression. Conclusions These findings suggest that, like instructed reappraisal, individual differences in reappraisal use are associated with decreased activation in ventral emotion generative regions and increased activation in prefrontal control regions in response to negative stimuli. Such individual differences in emotion regulation might predict successful coping with emotional challenges as well as the onset of affective disorders. PMID:18930182

The Maternal Legacy: Female Identity Predicts Offspring Sex Ratio in the Loggerhead Sea Turtle.

PubMed

Reneker, Jaymie L; Kamel, Stephanie J

2016-07-01

In organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination, the incubation environment plays a key role in determining offspring sex ratios. Given that global temperatures have warmed approximately 0.6 °C in the last century, it is necessary to consider how organisms will adjust to climate change. To better understand the degree to which mothers influence the sex ratios of their offspring, we use 24 years of nesting data for individual female loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) observed on Bald Head Island, North Carolina. We find that maternal identity is the best predictor of nest sex ratio in univariate and multivariate predictive models. We find significant variability in estimated nest sex ratios among mothers, but a high degree of consistency within mothers, despite substantial spatial and temporal thermal variation. Our results suggest that individual differences in nesting preferences are the main driver behind divergences in nest sex ratios. As such, a female's ability to plastically adjust her nest sex ratios in response to environmental conditions is constrained, potentially limiting how individuals behaviorally mitigate the effects of environmental change. Given that many loggerhead populations already show female-biased offspring sex ratios, understanding maternal behavioral responses is critical for predicting the future of long-lived species vulnerable to extinction.

The Maternal Legacy: Female Identity Predicts Offspring Sex Ratio in the Loggerhead Sea Turtle

PubMed Central

Reneker, Jaymie L.; Kamel, Stephanie J.

2016-01-01

In organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination, the incubation environment plays a key role in determining offspring sex ratios. Given that global temperatures have warmed approximately 0.6 °C in the last century, it is necessary to consider how organisms will adjust to climate change. To better understand the degree to which mothers influence the sex ratios of their offspring, we use 24 years of nesting data for individual female loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) observed on Bald Head Island, North Carolina. We find that maternal identity is the best predictor of nest sex ratio in univariate and multivariate predictive models. We find significant variability in estimated nest sex ratios among mothers, but a high degree of consistency within mothers, despite substantial spatial and temporal thermal variation. Our results suggest that individual differences in nesting preferences are the main driver behind divergences in nest sex ratios. As such, a female’s ability to plastically adjust her nest sex ratios in response to environmental conditions is constrained, potentially limiting how individuals behaviorally mitigate the effects of environmental change. Given that many loggerhead populations already show female-biased offspring sex ratios, understanding maternal behavioral responses is critical for predicting the future of long-lived species vulnerable to extinction. PMID:27363786

ProMateus—an open research approach to protein-binding sites analysis

PubMed Central

Neuvirth, Hani; Heinemann, Uri; Birnbaum, David; Tishby, Naftali; Schreiber, Gideon

2007-01-01

The development of bioinformatic tools by individual labs results in the abundance of parallel programs for the same task. For example, identification of binding site regions between interacting proteins is done using: ProMate, WHISCY, PPI-Pred, PINUP and others. All servers first identify unique properties of binding sites and then incorporate them into a predictor. Obviously, the resulting prediction would improve if the most suitable parameters from each of those predictors would be incorporated into one server. However, because of the variation in methods and databases, this is currently not feasible. Here, the protein-binding site prediction server is extended into a general protein-binding sites research tool, ProMateus. This web tool, based on ProMate's infrastructure enables the easy exploration and incorporation of new features and databases by the user, providing an evaluation of the benefit of individual features and their combination within a set framework. This transforms the individual research into a community exercise, bringing out the best from all users for optimized predictions. The analysis is demonstrated on a database of protein protein and protein-DNA interactions. This approach is basically different from that used in generating meta-servers. The implications of the open-research approach are discussed. ProMateus is available at http://bip.weizmann.ac.il/promate. PMID:17488838

Explaining leptokurtic movement distributions: intrapopulation variation in boldness and exploration.

PubMed

Fraser, D F; Gilliam, J F; Daley, M J; Le, A N; Skalski, G T

2001-08-01

Leptokurtic distributions of movement distances observed in field-release studies, in which some individuals move long distances while most remain at or near their release point, are a common feature of mobile animals. However, because leptokurtosis is predicted to be transient in homogeneous populations, persistent leptokurtosis suggests a population heterogeneity. We found evidence for a heterogeneity that may generate persistent leptokurtosis. We tested individuals of the Trinidad killifish Rivulus hartii for boldness in a tank test and released them back into their native stream. Boldness in the tank test predicted distance moved in the field releases, even after effects of size and sex were removed. Further, data from a 19-mo mark-recapture study showed that individual growth correlated positively with movement in a predator-threatened river zone where the Rivulus population is spatially fragmented and dispersal is likely to be a hazardous activity. In contrast, no such correlation existed in a predator-absent zone where the population is unfragmented. These results show that a behavioral trait, not discernible from body size or sex, contributes to dispersal and that a component of fitness of surviving "dispersers" is elevated above that of "stayers," a fundamental assumption or prediction of many models of the evolution of dispersal through hazardous habitat.

Bridging the Nomothetic and Idiographic Approaches to the Analysis of Clinical Data

PubMed Central

Beltz, Adriene M.; Wright, Aidan G. C.; Sprague, Briana N.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

2016-01-01

The nomothetic approach (i.e., the study of interindividual variation) dominates analyses of clinical data, even though its assumption of homogeneity across people and time is often violated. The idiographic approach (i.e., the study of intraindividual variation) is best suited for analyses of heterogeneous clinical data, but its person-specific methods and results have been criticized as unwieldy. Group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) combines the assets of the nomothetic and idiographic approaches by creating person-specific maps that contain a group-level structure. The maps show how intensively measured variables predict and are predicted by each other at different time scales. In this article, GIMME is introduced conceptually and mathematically, and then applied to an empirical data set containing the negative affect, detachment, disinhibition, and hostility composite ratings from the daily diaries of 25 individuals with personality pathology. Results are discussed with the aim of elucidating GIMME's potential for clinical research and practice. PMID:27165092

Genetic and caregiving-based contributions to infant attachment: unique associations with distress reactivity and attachment security.

PubMed

Raby, K Lee; Cicchetti, Dante; Carlson, Elizabeth A; Cutuli, J J; Englund, Michelle M; Egeland, Byron

2012-09-01

In the longitudinal study reported here, we examined genetic and caregiving-based contributions to individual differences in infant attachment classifications. For 154 mother-infant pairs, we rated mothers' responsiveness to their 6-month-old infants during naturalistic interactions and classified infants' attachment organization at 12 and 18 months using the Strange Situation procedure. These infants were later genotyped with respect to the serotonin-transporter-linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR). Maternal responsiveness uniquely predicted infants' attachment security. Infants' 5-HTTLPR variation uniquely predicted their subtype of attachment security at 12 months and their subtype of attachment insecurity at 12 and 18 months. The short allele for 5-HTTLPR was associated with attachment classifications characterized by higher emotional distress. These findings suggest that 5-HTTLPR variation contributes to infants' emotional reactivity and that the degree to which caregivers are responsive influences how effectively infants use their caregivers for emotion regulation. Theoretical implications for the study of genetic and caregiving influences are discussed.

Behavioral Impulsivity Does Not Predict Naturalistic Alcohol Consumption or Treatment Outcomes

PubMed Central

Mullen, Jillian; Mathias, Charles W.; Karns, Tara E.; Liang, Yuanyuan; Hill-Kapturczak, Nathalie; Roache, John D.; Lamb, Richard J.; Dougherty, Donald M.

2016-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study was to determine if behavioral impulsivity under multiple conditions (baseline, after alcohol consumption or after serotonin depletion) predicted naturalistic alcohol use or treatment outcomes from a moderation-based contingency management intervention. Method The current data analysis pulls information from three phases of a large study: 1) Phase 1 examined baseline and the effects of alcohol use and serotonin depletion on three types of behavioral impulsivity: response initiation (IMT task), response inhibition (GoStop task), and delay discounting (SKIP task); 2) Phase 2 involved 28 days of naturalistic drinking; and 3) Phase 3 involved 3 months of contingency management. During phases 2 and 3 alcohol use was measured objectively using transdermal alcohol monitors. The results of each individual phase has been previously published showing that at a group level the effects of alcohol consumption on impulsivity were dependent on the component of impulsivity being measured and the dose of alcohol consumed but serotonin depletion had no effect on impulsivity, and that a moderation-based contingency management intervention reduced heavy drinking. Results The current analysis combining data from those who completed all three phases (n = 67) showed that impulsivity measured at baseline, after alcohol consumption, or after serotonin depletion did not predict naturalistic drinking or treatment outcomes from a moderation-based CM treatment. Conclusions Contingency management interventions may prove to be an effective intervention for impulsive individuals, however, normal variations in measured impulsivity do not seem to relate to normal variations in drinking pattern or response to moderation-based contingency management. PMID:27746702

An analysis of dental development in Pleistocene Homo using skeletal growth and chronological age.

PubMed

Šešelj, Maja

2017-07-01

This study takes a new approach to interpreting dental development in Pleistocene Homo in comparison with recent modern humans. As rates of dental development and skeletal growth are correlated given age in modern humans, using age and skeletal growth in tandem yields more accurate dental development estimates. Here, I apply these models to fossil Homo to obtain more individualized predictions and interpretations of their dental development relative to recent modern humans. Proportional odds logistic regression models based on three recent modern human samples (N = 181) were used to predict permanent mandibular tooth development scores in five Pleistocene subadults: Homo erectus/ergaster, Neanderthals, and anatomically modern humans (AMHs). Explanatory variables include a skeletal growth indicator (i.e., diaphyseal femoral length), and chronological age. AMHs Lagar Velho 1 and Qafzeh 10 share delayed incisor development, but exhibit considerable idiosyncratic variation within and across tooth types, relative to each other and to the reference samples. Neanderthals Dederiyeh 1 and Le Moustier 1 exhibit delayed incisor coupled with advanced molar development, but differences are reduced when femoral diaphysis length is considered. Dental development in KNM-WT 15,000 Homo erectus/ergaster, while advanced for his age, almost exactly matches the predictions once femoral length is included in the models. This study provides a new interpretation of dental development in KNM-WT 15000 as primarily reflecting his faster rates of skeletal growth. While the two AMH specimens exhibit considerable individual variation, the Neanderthals exhibit delayed incisor development early and advanced molar development later in ontogeny. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prediction With Dimension Reduction of Multiple Molecular Data Sources for Patient Survival.

PubMed

Kaplan, Adam; Lock, Eric F

2017-01-01

Predictive modeling from high-dimensional genomic data is often preceded by a dimension reduction step, such as principal component analysis (PCA). However, the application of PCA is not straightforward for multisource data, wherein multiple sources of 'omics data measure different but related biological components. In this article, we use recent advances in the dimension reduction of multisource data for predictive modeling. In particular, we apply exploratory results from Joint and Individual Variation Explained (JIVE), an extension of PCA for multisource data, for prediction of differing response types. We conduct illustrative simulations to illustrate the practical advantages and interpretability of our approach. As an application example, we consider predicting survival for patients with glioblastoma multiforme from 3 data sources measuring messenger RNA expression, microRNA expression, and DNA methylation. We also introduce a method to estimate JIVE scores for new samples that were not used in the initial dimension reduction and study its theoretical properties; this method is implemented in the R package R.JIVE on CRAN, in the function jive.predict.

Performance trade-offs and ageing in the 'world's greatest athletes'.

PubMed

Careau, Vincent; Wilson, Robbie S

2017-08-16

The mechanistic foundations of performance trade-offs are clear: because body size and shape constrains movement, and muscles vary in strength and fibre type, certain physical traits should act in opposition with others (e.g. sprint versus endurance). Yet performance trade-offs are rarely detected, and traits are often positively correlated. A potential resolution to this conundrum is that within -individual performance trade-offs can be masked by among -individual variation in 'quality'. Although there is a current debate on how to unambiguously define and account for quality, no previous studies have partitioned trait correlations at the within- and among-individual levels. Here, we evaluate performance trade-offs among and within 1369 elite athletes that performed in a total of 6418 combined-events competitions (decathlon and heptathlon). Controlling for age, experience and wind conditions, we detected strong trade-offs between groups of functionally similar events (throwing versus jumping versus running) occurring at the among-individual level. We further modelled individual (co)variation in age-related plasticity of performance and found previously unseen trade-offs in throwing versus running performance that manifest through ageing. Our results verify that human performance is limited by fundamental genetic, environmental and ageing constraints that preclude the simultaneous improvement of performance in multiple dimensions. Identifying these constraints is fundamental to understanding performance trade-offs and predicting the ageing of motor function. © 2017 The Author(s).

Confronting uncertainty in flood damage predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno

2015-04-01

Reliable flood damage models are a prerequisite for the practical usefulness of the model results. Oftentimes, traditional uni-variate damage models as for instance depth-damage curves fail to reproduce the variability of observed flood damage. Innovative multi-variate probabilistic modelling approaches are promising to capture and quantify the uncertainty involved and thus to improve the basis for decision making. In this study we compare the predictive capability of two probabilistic modelling approaches, namely Bagging Decision Trees and Bayesian Networks. For model evaluation we use empirical damage data which are available from computer aided telephone interviews that were respectively compiled after the floods in 2002, 2005 and 2006, in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. We carry out a split sample test by sub-setting the damage records. One sub-set is used to derive the models and the remaining records are used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Further we stratify the sample according to catchments which allows studying model performance in a spatial transfer context. Flood damage estimation is carried out on the scale of the individual buildings in terms of relative damage. The predictive performance of the models is assessed in terms of systematic deviations (mean bias), precision (mean absolute error) as well as in terms of reliability which is represented by the proportion of the number of observations that fall within the 95-quantile and 5-quantile predictive interval. The reliability of the probabilistic predictions within validation runs decreases only slightly and achieves a very good coverage of observations within the predictive interval. Probabilistic models provide quantitative information about prediction uncertainty which is crucial to assess the reliability of model predictions and improves the usefulness of model results.

Using confirmatory factor analysis to understand executive control in preschool children: sources of variation in emergent mathematic achievement

PubMed Central

Bull, Rebecca; Espy, Kimberly Andrews; Wiebe, Sandra A.; Sheffield, Tiffany D.; Nelson, Jennifer Mize

2010-01-01

Latent variable modeling methods have demonstrated utility for understanding the structure of executive control (EC) across development. These methods are utilized to better characterize the relation between EC and mathematics achievement in the preschool period, and to understand contributing sources of individual variation. Using the sample and battery of laboratory tasks described in Wiebe, Espy and Charak (2008), latent EC was related strongly to emergent mathematics achievement in preschool, and was robust after controlling for crystallized intellectual skills. The relation between crystallized skills and emergent mathematics differed between girls and boys, although the predictive association between EC and mathematics did not. Two dimensions of the child’s social environment contributed to mathematics achievement: social network support through its relation to EC and environmental stressors through its relation with crystallized skills. These findings underscore the need to examine the dimensions, mechanisms, and individual pathways that influence the development of early competence in basic cognitive processes that underpin early academic achievement. PMID:21676089

Population Viability Analysis of Riverine Fishes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bates, P.; Chandler, J.; Jager, H.I.

Many utilities face conflkts between two goals: cost-efficient hydropower generation and protecting riverine fishes. Research to develop ecological simulation tools that can evaluate alternative mitigation strategies in terms of their benefits to fish populations is vital to informed decision-making. In this paper, we describe our approach to population viability analysis of riverine fishes in general and Snake River white sturgeon in particular. We are finding that the individual-based modeling approach used in previous in-stream flow applications is well suited to addressing questions about the viability of species of concern for several reasons. Chief among these are: (1) the abiIity tomore » represent the effects of individual variation in life history characteristics on predicted population viabili~, (2) the flexibili~ needed to quanti~ the ecological benefits of alternative flow management options by representing spatial and temporal variation in flow and temperaturty and (3) the flexibility needed to quantifi the ecological benefits of non-flow related manipulations (i.e., passage, screening and hatchery supplementation).« less

Associations between race, sex and immune response variations to rubella vaccination in two independent cohorts

PubMed Central

Haralambieva, Iana H.; Salk, Hannah M.; Lambert, Nathaniel D.; Ovsyannikova, Inna G.; Kennedy, Richard B.; Warner, Nathaniel D.; Pankratz, V.Shane; Poland, Gregory A.

2014-01-01

Introduction Immune response variations after vaccination are influenced by host genetic factors and demographic variables, such as race, ethnicity and sex. The latter have not been systematically studied in regard to live rubella vaccine, but are of interest for developing next generation vaccines for diverse populations, for predicting immune responses after vaccination, and for better understanding the variables that impact immune response. Methods We assessed associations between demographic variables, including race, ethnicity and sex, and rubella-specific neutralizing antibody levels and secreted cytokines (IFN! , IL-6) in two independent cohorts (1,994 subjects), using linear and linear mixed models approaches, and genetically defined racial and ethnic categorizations. Results Our replicated findings in two independent, large, racially diverse cohorts indicate that individuals of African descent have significantly higher rubella-specific neutralizing antibody levels compared to individuals of European descent and/or Hispanic ethnicity (p! 0.001). Conclusion Our study provides consistent evidence for racial/ethnic differences in humoral immune response following rubella vaccination. PMID:24530932

A gravity model for the spread of a pollinator-borne plant pathogen.

PubMed

Ferrari, Matthew J; Bjørnstad, Ottar N; Partain, Jessica L; Antonovics, Janis

2006-09-01

Many pathogens of plants are transmitted by arthropod vectors whose movement between individual hosts is influenced by foraging behavior. Insect foraging has been shown to depend on both the quality of hosts and the distances between hosts. Given the spatial distribution of host plants and individual variation in quality, vector foraging patterns may therefore produce predictable variation in exposure to pathogens. We develop a "gravity" model to describe the spatial spread of a vector-borne plant pathogen from underlying models of insect foraging in response to host quality using the pollinator-borne smut fungus Microbotryum violaceum as a case study. We fit the model to spatially explicit time series of M. violaceum transmission in replicate experimental plots of the white campion Silene latifolia. The gravity model provides a better fit than a mean field model or a model with only distance-dependent transmission. The results highlight the importance of active vector foraging in generating spatial patterns of disease incidence and for pathogen-mediated selection for floral traits.

Pair Identity and Smooth Variation Rules Applicable for the Spectroscopic Parameters of H2O Transitions Involving High-J States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ma, Q.; Tipping, R. H.; Lavrentieva, N. N.

2010-01-01

Two basic rules (i.e. the pair identity and the smooth variation) applicable for H2O transitions involving high-J states have been discovered. The origins of these rules are the properties of the energy levels and wavefunctions of H2O states with the quantum number J above certain boundaries. As a result, for lines involving high-J states in individually defined groups, all their spectroscopic parameters (i.e. the transition wavenumber, intensity, pressure-broadened half-width, pressure-induced shift, and temperature exponent) must follow these rules. One can use these rules to screen spectroscopic data provided by databases and to identify possible errors. In addition, by using extrapolation methods within the individual groups, one is able to predict the spectroscopic parameters for lines in this group involving very high-J states. The latter are required in developing high-temperature molecular spectroscopic databases such as HITEMP.

Balance decrements are associated with age-related muscle property changes.

PubMed

Hasson, Christopher J; van Emmerik, Richard E A; Caldwell, Graham E

2014-08-01

In this study, a comprehensive evaluation of static and dynamic balance abilities was performed in young and older adults and regression analysis was used to test whether age-related variations in individual ankle muscle mechanical properties could explain differences in balance performance. The mechanical properties included estimates of the maximal isometric force capability, force-length, force-velocity, and series elastic properties of the dorsiflexors and individual plantarflexor muscles (gastrocnemius and soleus). As expected, the older adults performed more poorly on most balance tasks. Muscular maximal isometric force, optimal fiber length, tendon slack length, and velocity-dependent force capabilities accounted for up to 60% of the age-related variation in performance on the static and dynamic balance tests. In general, the plantarflexors had a stronger predictive role than the dorsiflexors. Plantarflexor stiffness was strongly related to general balance performance, particularly in quiet stance; but this effect did not depend on age. Together, these results suggest that age-related differences in balance performance are explained in part by alterations in muscular mechanical properties.

Using confirmatory factor analysis to understand executive control in preschool children: sources of variation in emergent mathematic achievement.

PubMed

Bull, Rebecca; Espy, Kimberly Andrews; Wiebe, Sandra A; Sheffield, Tiffany D; Nelson, Jennifer Mize

2011-07-01

Latent variable modeling methods have demonstrated utility for understanding the structure of executive control (EC) across development. These methods are utilized to better characterize the relation between EC and mathematics achievement in the preschool period, and to understand contributing sources of individual variation. Using the sample and battery of laboratory tasks described in Wiebe, Espy and Charak (2008), latent EC was related strongly to emergent mathematics achievement in preschool, and was robust after controlling for crystallized intellectual skills. The relation between crystallized skills and emergent mathematics differed between girls and boys, although the predictive association between EC and mathematics did not. Two dimensions of the child 's social environment contributed to mathematics achievement: social network support through its relation to EC and environmental stressors through its relation with crystallized skills. These findings underscore the need to examine the dimensions, mechanisms, and individual pathways that influence the development of early competence in basic cognitive processes that underpin early academic achievement. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Neighborhood influences on the association between maternal age and birthweight: a multilevel investigation of age-related disparities in health.

PubMed

Cerdá, Magdalena; Buka, Stephen L; Rich-Edwards, Janet W

2008-05-01

It was hypothesized that the relationship between maternal age and infant birthweight varies significantly across neighborhoods and that such variation can be predicted by neighborhood characteristics. We analyzed 229,613 singleton births of mothers aged 20-45 years from Chicago, USA in 1997-2002. Random coefficient models were used to estimate the between-neighborhood variation in age-birthweight slopes, and both intercepts- and-slopes-as-outcomes models were used to evaluate area-level predictors of such variation. The crude maternal age-birthweight slopes for neighborhoods ranged from a decrease of 17 g to an increase of 10 g per year of maternal age. Adjustment for individual-level covariates reduced but did not eliminate this between-neighborhood variation. Concentrated poverty was a significant neighborhood-level predictor of the age-birthweight slope, explaining 44.4% of the between-neighborhood variation in slopes. Neighborhoods of higher economic disadvantage showed a more negative age-birthweight slope. The findings support the hypothesis that the relationship between maternal age and birthweight varies between neighborhoods. Indicators of neighborhood disadvantage help to explain such differences.

Piecewise multivariate modelling of sequential metabolic profiling data.

PubMed

Rantalainen, Mattias; Cloarec, Olivier; Ebbels, Timothy M D; Lundstedt, Torbjörn; Nicholson, Jeremy K; Holmes, Elaine; Trygg, Johan

2008-02-19

Modelling the time-related behaviour of biological systems is essential for understanding their dynamic responses to perturbations. In metabolic profiling studies, the sampling rate and number of sampling points are often restricted due to experimental and biological constraints. A supervised multivariate modelling approach with the objective to model the time-related variation in the data for short and sparsely sampled time-series is described. A set of piecewise Orthogonal Projections to Latent Structures (OPLS) models are estimated, describing changes between successive time points. The individual OPLS models are linear, but the piecewise combination of several models accommodates modelling and prediction of changes which are non-linear with respect to the time course. We demonstrate the method on both simulated and metabolic profiling data, illustrating how time related changes are successfully modelled and predicted. The proposed method is effective for modelling and prediction of short and multivariate time series data. A key advantage of the method is model transparency, allowing easy interpretation of time-related variation in the data. The method provides a competitive complement to commonly applied multivariate methods such as OPLS and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for modelling and analysis of short time-series data.

Predicting bird song from space

PubMed Central

Smith, Thomas B; Harrigan, Ryan J; Kirschel, Alexander N G; Buermann, Wolfgang; Saatchi, Sassan; Blumstein, Daniel T; de Kort, Selvino R; Slabbekoorn, Hans

2013-01-01

Environmentally imposed selection pressures are well known to shape animal signals. Changes in these signals can result in recognition mismatches between individuals living in different habitats, leading to reproductive divergence and speciation. For example, numerous studies have shown that differences in avian song may be a potent prezygotic isolating mechanism. Typically, however, detailed studies of environmental pressures on variation in animal behavior have been conducted only at small spatial scales. Here, we use remote-sensing data to predict animal behavior, in this case, bird song, across vast spatial scales. We use remotely sensed data to predict the song characteristics of the little greenbul (Andropadus virens), a widely distributed African passerine, found across secondary and mature rainforest habitats and the rainforest-savanna ecotone. Satellite data that captured ecosystem structure and function explained up to 66% of the variation in song characteristics. Song differences observed across habitats, including those between human-altered and mature rainforest, have the potential to lead to reproductive divergence, and highlight the impacts that both natural and anthropogenic change may have on natural populations. Our approach offers a novel means to examine the ecological correlates of animal behavior across large geographic areas with potential applications to both evolutionary and conservation biology. PMID:24062797

Prediction as a humanitarian and pragmatic contribution from human cognitive neuroscience.

PubMed

Gabrieli, John D E; Ghosh, Satrajit S; Whitfield-Gabrieli, Susan

2015-01-07

Neuroimaging has greatly enhanced the cognitive neuroscience understanding of the human brain and its variation across individuals (neurodiversity) in both health and disease. Such progress has not yet, however, propelled changes in educational or medical practices that improve people's lives. We review neuroimaging findings in which initial brain measures (neuromarkers) are correlated with or predict future education, learning, and performance in children and adults; criminality; health-related behaviors; and responses to pharmacological or behavioral treatments. Neuromarkers often provide better predictions (neuroprognosis), alone or in combination with other measures, than traditional behavioral measures. With further advances in study designs and analyses, neuromarkers may offer opportunities to personalize educational and clinical practices that lead to better outcomes for people. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of solar irradiances measured by SBUV, SME, and rockets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schlesinger, Barry M.; Heath, Donald F.

1988-01-01

In this paper, Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) measurements of solar irradiance and predictions from the Mg 280-nm index are compared with each other and with coincident Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) and rocket measurements. The SBUV irradiances show a systematic decrease with time not seen in the rocket measurements; a correction for this decrease is introduced. The scatter and overall structure in the SME spectra is 3-5 percent, of the order of or larger than most of the changes predicted by the Mg index. The corrected SBUV ratio and the Mg index prediction for it agree to within 1 percent. Such agreement supports a common origin for variations between solar maximum and minimum and those for individual rotations: the degree to which active regions cover the visible hemisphere of the sun.

SU-F-T-119: Development of Heart Prediction Model to Increase Accuracy of Dose Reconstruction for Radiotherapy Patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mosher, E; Choi, M; Lee, C

Purpose: To assess individual variation in heart volume and location in order to develop a prediction model of the heart. This heart prediction model will be used to calculate individualized heart doses for radiotherapy patients in epidemiological studies. Methods: Chest CT images for 30 adult male and 30 adult female patients were obtained from NIH Clinical Center. Image-analysis computer programs were used to segment the whole heart and 8 sub-regions and to measure the volume of each sub- region and the dimension of the whole heart. An analytical dosimetry method was used for the 30 adult female patients to estimatemore » mean heart dose during conventional left breast radiotherapy. Results: The average volumes of the whole heart were 803.37 cm{sup 3} (COV 18.8%) and 570.19 cm{sup 3} (COV 18.8%) for adult male and female patients, respectively, which are comparable with the international reference volumes of 807.69 cm{sup 3} for males and 596.15 cm{sup 3} for females. Some patient characteristics were strongly correlated (R{sup 2}>0.5) with heart volume and heart dimensions (e.g., Body Mass Index vs. heart depth in males: R{sup 2}=0.54; weight vs. heart width in the adult females: R{sup 2}=0.63). We found that the mean heart dose 3.805 Gy (assuming prescribed dose of 50 Gy) in the breast radiotherapy simulations of the 30 adult females could be an underestimate (up to 1.6-fold) or overestimate (up to 1.8-fold) of the patient-specific heart dose. Conclusion: The study showed the significant variation in patient heart volumes and dimensions, resulting in substantial dose errors when a single average heart model is used for retrospective dose reconstruction. We are completing a multivariate analysis to develop a prediction model of the heart. This model will increase accuracy in dose reconstruction for radiotherapy patients and allow us to individualize heart dose calculations for patients whose CT images are not available.« less

Rate of egg maturation in marine turtles exhibits 'universal temperature dependence'.

PubMed

Weber, Sam B; Blount, Jonathan D; Godley, Brendan J; Witt, Matthew J; Broderick, Annette C

2011-09-01

1. The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) predicts that, after correcting for body mass variation among organisms, the rates of most biological processes will vary as a universal function of temperature. However, empirical support for 'universal temperature dependence' (UTD) is currently equivocal and based on studies of a limited number of traits. 2. In many ectothermic animals, the rate at which females produce mature eggs is temperature dependent and may be an important factor in determining the costs of reproduction. 3. We tested whether the rate of egg maturation in marine turtles varies with environmental temperature as predicted by MTE, using the time separating successive clutches of individual females to estimate the rate at which eggs are formed. We also assessed the phenotypic contribution to this rate, by using radio telemetry to make repeated measurements of interclutch intervals for individual green turtles (Chelonia mydas). 4. Rates of egg maturation increased with seasonally increasing water temperatures in radio-tracked green turtles, but were not repeatable for individual females, and did not vary according to maternal body size or reproductive investment (number and size of eggs produced). 5. Using a collated data set from several different populations and species of marine turtles, we then show that a single relationship with water temperature explains most of the variation in egg maturation rates, with a slope that is statistically indistinguishable from the UTD predicted by MTE. However, several alternative statistical models also described the relationship between temperature and egg maturation rates equally parsimoniously. 6. Our results offer novel support for the MTE's predicted UTD of biological rates, although the underlying mechanisms require further study. The strong temperature dependence of egg maturation combined with the apparently weak phenotypic contribution to this rate has interesting behavioural implications in ectothermic animals. We suggest that maternal thermoregulatory behaviour in marine turtles, and many other reptiles, is consistent with a strategy of adaptively increasing body temperatures to accelerate egg maturation. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Heritable Individual-Specific and Allele-Specific Chromatin Signatures in Humans

PubMed Central

McDaniell, Ryan; Lee, Bum-Kyu; Song, Lingyun; Liu, Zheng; Boyle, Alan P.; Erdos, Michael R.; Scott, Laura J.; Morken, Mario A.; Kucera, Katerina S.; Battenhouse, Anna; Keefe, Damian; Collins, Francis S.; Willard, Huntington F.; Lieb, Jason D.; Furey, Terrence S.; Crawford, Gregory E.; Iyer, Vishwanath R.; Birney, Ewan

2010-01-01

The extent to which variation in chromatin structure and transcription factor binding may influence gene expression, and thus underlie or contribute to variation in phenotype, is unknown. To address this question, we cataloged both individual-to-individual variation and differences between homologous chromosomes within the same individual (allele-specific variation) in chromatin structure and transcription factor binding in lymphoblastoid cells derived from individuals of geographically diverse ancestry. Ten percent of active chromatin sites were individual-specific; a similar proportion were allele-specific. Both individual-specific and allele-specific sites were commonly transmitted from parent to child, which suggests that they are heritable features of the human genome. Our study shows that heritable chromatin status and transcription factor binding differ as a result of genetic variation and may underlie phenotypic variation in humans. PMID:20299549

The Genetic Basis for Variation in Sensitivity to Lead Toxicity in Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Zhou, Shanshan; Morozova, Tatiana V.; Hussain, Yasmeen N.; Luoma, Sarah E.; McCoy, Lenovia; Yamamoto, Akihiko; Mackay, Trudy F.C.; Anholt, Robert R.H.

2016-01-01

Background: Lead toxicity presents a worldwide health problem, especially due to its adverse effects on cognitive development in children. However, identifying genes that give rise to individual variation in susceptibility to lead toxicity is challenging in human populations. Objectives: Our goal was to use Drosophila melanogaster to identify evolutionarily conserved candidate genes associated with individual variation in susceptibility to lead exposure. Methods: To identify candidate genes associated with variation in susceptibility to lead toxicity, we measured effects of lead exposure on development time, viability and adult activity in the Drosophila melanogaster Genetic Reference Panel (DGRP) and performed genome-wide association analyses to identify candidate genes. We used mutants to assess functional causality of candidate genes and constructed a genetic network associated with variation in sensitivity to lead exposure, on which we could superimpose human orthologs. Results: We found substantial heritabilities for all three traits and identified candidate genes associated with variation in susceptibility to lead exposure for each phenotype. The genetic architectures that determine variation in sensitivity to lead exposure are highly polygenic. Gene ontology and network analyses showed enrichment of genes associated with early development and function of the nervous system. Conclusions: Drosophila melanogaster presents an advantageous model to study the genetic underpinnings of variation in susceptibility to lead toxicity. Evolutionary conservation of cellular pathways that respond to toxic exposure allows predictions regarding orthologous genes and pathways across phyla. Thus, studies in the D. melanogaster model system can identify candidate susceptibility genes to guide subsequent studies in human populations. Citation: Zhou S, Morozova TV, Hussain YN, Luoma SE, McCoy L, Yamamoto A, Mackay TF, Anholt RR. 2016. The genetic basis for variation in sensitivity to lead toxicity in Drosophila melanogaster. Environ Health Perspect 124:1062–1070; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1510513 PMID:26859824

Changes in US extreme sea levels and the role of large scale climate variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Chambers, D. P.

2015-12-01

We analyze a set of 20 tide gauge records covering the contiguous United States (US) coastline and the period from 1929 to 2013 to identify long-term trends and multi-decadal variations in extreme sea levels (ESLs) relative to changes in mean sea level (MSL). Significant but small long-term trends in ESLs above/below MSL are found at individual sites along most coastline stretches, but are mostly confined to the southeast coast and the winter season when storm surges are primarily driven by extra-tropical cyclones. We identify six regions with broadly coherent and considerable multi-decadal ESL variations unrelated to MSL changes. Using a quasi-non-stationary extreme value analysis approach we show that the latter would have caused variations in design relevant return water levels (RWLs; 50 to 200 year return periods) ranging from ~10 cm to as much as 110 cm across the six regions. To explore the origin of these temporal changes and the role of large-scale climate variability we develop different sets of simple and multiple linear regression models with RWLs as dependent variables and climate indices, or tailored (toward the goal of predicting multi-decadal RWL changes) versions of them, and wind stress curl as independent predictors. The models, after being tested for spatial and temporal stability, explain up to 97% of the observed variability at individual sites and almost 80% on average. Using the model predictions as covariates for the quasi-non-stationary extreme value analysis also significantly reduces the range of change in the 100-year RWLs over time, turning a non-stationary process into a stationary one. This highlights that the models - when used with regional and global climate model output of the predictors - should also be capable of projecting future RWL changes to be used by decision makers for improved flood preparedness and long-term resiliency.

Inter-Physician Variation in Follow-Up Colonoscopies after Screening Colonoscopy

PubMed Central

Stock, Christian; Hoffmeister, Michael; Birkner, Berndt; Brenner, Hermann

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Surveillance is an integral part of the colorectal cancer (CRC) screening process. We aimed to investigate inter-physician variation in follow-up procedures after screening colonoscopy in an opportunistic CRC screening program. Methods A historical cohort study in the German statutory health insurance system was conducted. 55,301 individuals who underwent screening colonoscopy in 2006 in Bavaria, Germany, and who were not diagnosed with CRC were included. Utilization of follow-up colonoscopies performed by the same physician (328 physicians overall) within 3 years was ascertained. Mixed effects logistic regression modelling was used to assess the effect of physicians and other potential predictors (screening result, age group, and sex) on re-utilization of colonoscopy. Physicians were grouped into quintiles according to individual effects estimated in a preliminary model. Predicted probabilities of follow-up colonoscopy by screening result and physician group were calculated. Results The observed rate of follow-up colonoscopy was 6.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.9-6.4%), 18.6% (17.8-19.4%), and 37.0% (35.5-38.4%) after negative colonoscopy, low-risk adenoma and high-risk adenoma detection, respectively. All considered predictors were statistically significantly associated with follow-up colonoscopy. The predicted probabilities of follow-up colonoscopy ranged from 1.7% (1.4-2.0%) to 11.0% (10.2-11.7%), from 7.3% (6.2-8.5%) to 35.1% (32.6-37.7%), and from 17.9% (15.5-20.6%) to 56.9% (53.5-60.3%) in the 1st quintile (lowest rates of follow-up) and 5th quintile (highest rates of follow-up) of physicians after negative colonoscopy, low-risk adenoma and high-risk adenoma detection, respectively. Conclusions This study suggests substantial inter-physician variation in follow-up habits after screening colonoscopy. Interventions, including organizational changes in CRC screening should be considered to reduce this variation. PMID:23874941

Thermal and Hydrodynamic Environments Mediate Individual and Aggregative Feeding of a Functionally Important Omnivore in Reef Communities

PubMed Central

Frey, Desta L.; Gagnon, Patrick

2015-01-01

In eastern Canada, the destruction of kelp beds by dense aggregations (fronts) of the omnivorous green sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis, is a key determinant of the structure and dynamics of shallow reef communities. Recent studies suggest that hydrodynamic forces, but not sea temperature, determine the strength of urchin-kelp interactions, which deviates from the tenets of the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE). We tested the hypothesis that water temperature can predict short-term kelp bed destruction by S. droebachiensis in calm hydrodynamic environments. Specifically, we experimentally determined relationships among water temperature, body size, and individual feeding in the absence of waves, as well as among wave velocity, season, and aggregative feeding. We quantified variation in kelp-bed boundary dynamics, sea temperature, and wave height over three months at one subtidal site in Newfoundland to test the validity of thermal tipping ranges and regression equations derived from laboratory results. Consistent with the MTE, individual feeding during early summer (June-July) obeyed a non-linear, size- and temperature-dependent relationship: feeding in large urchins was consistently highest and positively correlated with temperature <12°C and dropped within and above the 12–15°C tipping range. This relationship was more apparent in large than small urchins. Observed and expected rates of kelp loss based on sea temperature and urchin density and size structure at the front were highly correlated and differed by one order of magnitude. The present study speaks to the importance of considering body size and natural variation in sea temperature in studies of urchin-kelp interactions. It provides the first compelling evidence that sea temperature, and not only hydrodynamic forces, can predict kelp bed destruction by urchin fronts in shallow reef communities. Studying urchin-seaweed-predator interactions within the conceptual foundations of the MTE holds high potential for improving capacity to predict and manage shifts in marine food web structure and productivity. PMID:25774674

Modelling individual differences in the form of Pavlovian conditioned approach responses: a dual learning systems approach with factored representations.

PubMed

Lesaint, Florian; Sigaud, Olivier; Flagel, Shelly B; Robinson, Terry E; Khamassi, Mehdi

2014-02-01

Reinforcement Learning has greatly influenced models of conditioning, providing powerful explanations of acquired behaviour and underlying physiological observations. However, in recent autoshaping experiments in rats, variation in the form of Pavlovian conditioned responses (CRs) and associated dopamine activity, have questioned the classical hypothesis that phasic dopamine activity corresponds to a reward prediction error-like signal arising from a classical Model-Free system, necessary for Pavlovian conditioning. Over the course of Pavlovian conditioning using food as the unconditioned stimulus (US), some rats (sign-trackers) come to approach and engage the conditioned stimulus (CS) itself - a lever - more and more avidly, whereas other rats (goal-trackers) learn to approach the location of food delivery upon CS presentation. Importantly, although both sign-trackers and goal-trackers learn the CS-US association equally well, only in sign-trackers does phasic dopamine activity show classical reward prediction error-like bursts. Furthermore, neither the acquisition nor the expression of a goal-tracking CR is dopamine-dependent. Here we present a computational model that can account for such individual variations. We show that a combination of a Model-Based system and a revised Model-Free system can account for the development of distinct CRs in rats. Moreover, we show that revising a classical Model-Free system to individually process stimuli by using factored representations can explain why classical dopaminergic patterns may be observed for some rats and not for others depending on the CR they develop. In addition, the model can account for other behavioural and pharmacological results obtained using the same, or similar, autoshaping procedures. Finally, the model makes it possible to draw a set of experimental predictions that may be verified in a modified experimental protocol. We suggest that further investigation of factored representations in computational neuroscience studies may be useful.

Thermal and hydrodynamic environments mediate individual and aggregative feeding of a functionally important omnivore in reef communities.

PubMed

Frey, Desta L; Gagnon, Patrick

2015-01-01

In eastern Canada, the destruction of kelp beds by dense aggregations (fronts) of the omnivorous green sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis, is a key determinant of the structure and dynamics of shallow reef communities. Recent studies suggest that hydrodynamic forces, but not sea temperature, determine the strength of urchin-kelp interactions, which deviates from the tenets of the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE). We tested the hypothesis that water temperature can predict short-term kelp bed destruction by S. droebachiensis in calm hydrodynamic environments. Specifically, we experimentally determined relationships among water temperature, body size, and individual feeding in the absence of waves, as well as among wave velocity, season, and aggregative feeding. We quantified variation in kelp-bed boundary dynamics, sea temperature, and wave height over three months at one subtidal site in Newfoundland to test the validity of thermal tipping ranges and regression equations derived from laboratory results. Consistent with the MTE, individual feeding during early summer (June-July) obeyed a non-linear, size- and temperature-dependent relationship: feeding in large urchins was consistently highest and positively correlated with temperature <12°C and dropped within and above the 12-15°C tipping range. This relationship was more apparent in large than small urchins. Observed and expected rates of kelp loss based on sea temperature and urchin density and size structure at the front were highly correlated and differed by one order of magnitude. The present study speaks to the importance of considering body size and natural variation in sea temperature in studies of urchin-kelp interactions. It provides the first compelling evidence that sea temperature, and not only hydrodynamic forces, can predict kelp bed destruction by urchin fronts in shallow reef communities. Studying urchin-seaweed-predator interactions within the conceptual foundations of the MTE holds high potential for improving capacity to predict and manage shifts in marine food web structure and productivity.

Modelling Individual Differences in the Form of Pavlovian Conditioned Approach Responses: A Dual Learning Systems Approach with Factored Representations

PubMed Central

Lesaint, Florian; Sigaud, Olivier; Flagel, Shelly B.; Robinson, Terry E.; Khamassi, Mehdi

2014-01-01

Reinforcement Learning has greatly influenced models of conditioning, providing powerful explanations of acquired behaviour and underlying physiological observations. However, in recent autoshaping experiments in rats, variation in the form of Pavlovian conditioned responses (CRs) and associated dopamine activity, have questioned the classical hypothesis that phasic dopamine activity corresponds to a reward prediction error-like signal arising from a classical Model-Free system, necessary for Pavlovian conditioning. Over the course of Pavlovian conditioning using food as the unconditioned stimulus (US), some rats (sign-trackers) come to approach and engage the conditioned stimulus (CS) itself – a lever – more and more avidly, whereas other rats (goal-trackers) learn to approach the location of food delivery upon CS presentation. Importantly, although both sign-trackers and goal-trackers learn the CS-US association equally well, only in sign-trackers does phasic dopamine activity show classical reward prediction error-like bursts. Furthermore, neither the acquisition nor the expression of a goal-tracking CR is dopamine-dependent. Here we present a computational model that can account for such individual variations. We show that a combination of a Model-Based system and a revised Model-Free system can account for the development of distinct CRs in rats. Moreover, we show that revising a classical Model-Free system to individually process stimuli by using factored representations can explain why classical dopaminergic patterns may be observed for some rats and not for others depending on the CR they develop. In addition, the model can account for other behavioural and pharmacological results obtained using the same, or similar, autoshaping procedures. Finally, the model makes it possible to draw a set of experimental predictions that may be verified in a modified experimental protocol. We suggest that further investigation of factored representations in computational neuroscience studies may be useful. PMID:24550719

Behavioural stress responses predict environmental perception in European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax).

PubMed

Millot, Sandie; Cerqueira, Marco; Castanheira, Maria-Filipa; Overli, Oyvind; Oliveira, Rui F; Martins, Catarina I M

2014-01-01

Individual variation in the response to environmental challenges depends partly on innate reaction norms, partly on experience-based cognitive/emotional evaluations that individuals make of the situation. The goal of this study was to investigate whether pre-existing differences in behaviour predict the outcome of such assessment of environmental cues, using a conditioned place preference/avoidance (CPP/CPA) paradigm. A comparative vertebrate model (European sea bass, Dicentrarchus labrax) was used, and ninety juvenile individuals were initially screened for behavioural reactivity using a net restraining test. Thereafter each individual was tested in a choice tank using net chasing as aversive stimulus or exposure to familiar conspecifics as appetitive stimulus in the preferred or non preferred side respectively (called hereafter stimulation side). Locomotor behaviour (i.e. time spent, distance travelled and swimming speed in each tank side) of each individual was recorded and analysed with video software. The results showed that fish which were previously exposed to appetitive stimulus increased significantly the time spent on the stimulation side, while aversive stimulus led to a strong decrease in time spent on the stimulation side. Moreover, this study showed clearly that proactive fish were characterised by a stronger preference for the social stimulus and when placed in a putative aversive environment showed a lower physiological stress responses than reactive fish. In conclusion, this study showed for the first time in sea bass, that the CPP/CPA paradigm can be used to assess the valence (positive vs. negative) that fish attribute to different stimuli and that individual behavioural traits is predictive of how stimuli are perceived and thus of the magnitude of preference or avoidance behaviour.

Behavioural Stress Responses Predict Environmental Perception in European Sea Bass (Dicentrarchus labrax)

PubMed Central

Millot, Sandie; Cerqueira, Marco; Castanheira, Maria-Filipa; Øverli, Øyvind; Oliveira, Rui F.; Martins, Catarina I. M.

2014-01-01

Individual variation in the response to environmental challenges depends partly on innate reaction norms, partly on experience-based cognitive/emotional evaluations that individuals make of the situation. The goal of this study was to investigate whether pre-existing differences in behaviour predict the outcome of such assessment of environmental cues, using a conditioned place preference/avoidance (CPP/CPA) paradigm. A comparative vertebrate model (European sea bass, Dicentrarchus labrax) was used, and ninety juvenile individuals were initially screened for behavioural reactivity using a net restraining test. Thereafter each individual was tested in a choice tank using net chasing as aversive stimulus or exposure to familiar conspecifics as appetitive stimulus in the preferred or non preferred side respectively (called hereafter stimulation side). Locomotor behaviour (i.e. time spent, distance travelled and swimming speed in each tank side) of each individual was recorded and analysed with video software. The results showed that fish which were previously exposed to appetitive stimulus increased significantly the time spent on the stimulation side, while aversive stimulus led to a strong decrease in time spent on the stimulation side. Moreover, this study showed clearly that proactive fish were characterised by a stronger preference for the social stimulus and when placed in a putative aversive environment showed a lower physiological stress responses than reactive fish. In conclusion, this study showed for the first time in sea bass, that the CPP/CPA paradigm can be used to assess the valence (positive vs. negative) that fish attribute to different stimuli and that individual behavioural traits is predictive of how stimuli are perceived and thus of the magnitude of preference or avoidance behaviour. PMID:25264870

Subjective Probabilities in Household Surveys

PubMed Central

Hurd, Michael D.

2011-01-01

Subjective probabilities are now collected on a number of large household surveys with the objective of providing data to better understand inter-temporal decision making. Comparison of subjective probabilities with actual outcomes shows that the probabilities have considerable predictive power in situations where individuals have considerable private information such as survival and retirement. In contrast the subjective probability of a stock market gain varies greatly across individuals even though no one has private information and the outcome is the same for everyone. An explanation is that there is considerable variation in accessing and processing information. Further, the subjective probability of a stock market gain is considerably lower than historical averages, providing an explanation for the relatively low frequency of stock holding. An important research objective will be to understand how individuals form their subjective probabilities. PMID:21643535

Evolutionary conservation advice for despotic populations: habitat heterogeneity favours conflict and reduces productivity in Seychelles magpie robins.

PubMed

López-Sepulcre, Andrés; Kokko, Hanna; Norris, Ken

2010-11-22

Individual preferences for good habitat are often thought to have a beneficial stabilizing effect for populations. However, if individuals preferentially compete for better-quality territories, these may become hotspots of conflict. We show that, in an endangered species, this process decreases the productivity of favoured territories to the extent that differences in productivity between territories disappear. Unlike predictions from current demographic theory on site-dependent population regulation (ideal despotic distribution), we show that population productivity is reduced if resources are distributed unevenly in space. Competition for high-quality habitat can thus have detrimental consequences for populations even though it benefits individuals. Manipulating conflict (e.g. by reducing variation in habitat quality) can therefore prove an effective conservation measure in species with strong social or territorial conflict.

Should congruence between intra- and interspecific ecomorphological relationships be expected? A case study with the great tit, Parus major

PubMed Central

Moreno, E.; Barbosa, A.; Carrascal, L. M.

1997-01-01

We studied the relationship between leg morphology and posture while feeding in a population of great tits (Parus major) under controlled conditions to investigate to what extent morphology and ecology are linked at the individual level. From predictions generated at the interspecific level within the genus Parus (Moreno and Carrascal 1993), we tested whether intra- and interspecific ecomorphological relationships are consistent. Within our population, neither leg bone lengths nor leg muscle morphology were related to the feeding posture of individuals. However, differences in body weight were correlated with inter-individual differences in time spent hanging. These results demonstrate that the association between intra- and interspecific ecomorphological relationships is not uniform. We argue that, at the intraspecific level, body weight overrides the significance of other traits that have a functional meaning at the interspecific level (i.e. leg segment lengths, muscular morphology), due to isometric variation of morphological traits (muscular and skeletal) with body mass. Thus, the discrepancy between the ecomorphological associations at intra- and interspecific levels is the result of a problem of scale (morphological changes in evolutionary time and isometric variation of morphological traits with body mass in ecological time).

The effect of skin reflectance on thermal traits in a small heliothermic ectotherm.

PubMed

Matthews, Genevieve; Goulet, Celine T; Delhey, Kaspar; Chapple, David G

2016-08-01

Variation in colour patterning is prevalent among and within species. A number of theories have been proposed in explaining its evolution. Because solar radiation interacts with the pigmentation of the integument causing light to either be reflected or absorbed into the body, thermoregulation has been considered to be a primary selective agent, particularly among ectotherms. Accordingly, the colour-mediated thermoregulatory hypothesis states that darker individuals will heat faster and reach higher thermal equilibria while paler individuals will have the opposite traits. It was further predicted that dark colouration would promote slower cooling rates and higher thermal performance temperatures. To test these hypotheses we quantified the reflectance, selected body temperatures, performance optima, as well as heating and cooling rates of an ectothermic vertebrate, Lampropholis delicata. Our results indicated that colour had no influence on thermal physiology, as all thermal traits were uncorrelated with reflectance. We suggest that crypsis may instead be the stronger selective agent as it may have a more direct impact on fitness. Our study has improved our knowledge of the functional differences among individuals with different colour patterns, and the evolutionary significance of morphological variation within species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting fish community properties within estuaries: Influence of habitat type and other environmental features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

França, Susana; Vasconcelos, Rita P.; Fonseca, Vanessa F.; Tanner, Susanne E.; Reis-Santos, Patrick; Costa, Maria José; Cabral, Henrique N.

2012-07-01

Statistical models predicting species distributions are essential not only to increase knowledge on species but for their application in conservation and ecologically-based management. The variation of fish species richness and abundance in the most representative habitats (saltmarsh, mudflat and subtidal) in five estuaries along the Portuguese coast was analysed through seasonal sampling surveys in 2009. Generalized additive models (GAM) were developed to describe the variation of species richness and abundances with a set of geomorphologic, hydrologic and environmental characteristics from the sampled estuaries and habitats. GAM were chosen as the complex interactions dominating these ecosystems and species distribution are non-linear. Final models built for each estuary and for all estuaries together performed well during the calibration phase and also during the validation phase, where an unused data sub-set from each estuary was used. There was not a similar combination of variables retained by the models for the studied estuaries but factors such as the area of the habitat, the distance to estuary mouth, percentage of mud in the sediment and depth were commonly retained. The partial effect of these predictor variables on the variation of species richness and abundance in the estuaries varied markedly and the importance of preserving the heterogeneity of habitats within estuaries was highlighted. Models for each individual estuary performed better than models for estuaries combined. Predictive models could be useful as a preliminary tool to prepare long-term conservation plans at different scales.

Prediction of Malignancy in Breast Tumors Using Diffusion Weighted Magnetic Resonance Imaging

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-07-01

Continued) more layers, each individual layer wound at the highest 2.2. Heating density achievable. The inductance variation depicted in Fig. lb indi- The...NOT IN ANY WAY OBLIGATE THE U.S. GOVERNMENT. THE FACT THAT THE GOVERNMENT FORMULATED OR SUPPLIED THE DRAWINGS, SPECIFICATIONS, OR OTHER DATA DOES NOT...vessels that supply nutrients and oxygen to the expanding tumour. Based on recent studies that indicate that the onset of angiogenesis can occur before

The Influence of Cultural Orientation on Associations between Puerto Rican Adolescent Mothers’ Parenting and Toddler Compliance and Defiance

PubMed Central

Wood, Lauren E.; Grau, Josefina M.; Smith, Erin N.; Duran, Petra A.; Castellanos, Patricia

2016-01-01

Objectives It is imperative that individual differences in the cultural contexts of adolescent mothers, whose parenting is often linked to poor child outcomes, be better understood, especially amongst Puerto Rican-origin mothers who experience high rates of poverty. Behaviors that mothers use to elicit compliance from their children are important to investigate, because children’s ability to engage in regulated, compliant behavior has long term consequences for their adjustment. This study tested whether mothers’ orientation to both American and Latino cultures influenced the associations between such maternal behaviors and compliant and defiant child behaviors. Method The sample included 123 young, Puerto Rican-origin mothers and their 24-month old toddlers. Behaviors coded from a toy clean-up task measured maternal guidance and control and child compliance and defiance, and acculturation and enculturation were measured with a self-report questionnaire. Results Maternal guidance predicted more child compliance, with no significant variations by cultural orientation; however, mothers who were more enculturated had children who were more compliant. As predicted, mothers’ more frequent use of control was related to more child defiance for mothers reporting high levels of acculturation, and not for less acculturated mothers. Conclusions Findings support the hypothesis that individual differences in cultural orientation influence variations in associations between certain maternal and child behaviors. PMID:27454887

Brain potentials predict learning, transmission and modification of an artificial symbolic system.

PubMed

Lumaca, Massimo; Baggio, Giosuè

2016-12-01

It has recently been argued that symbolic systems evolve while they are being transmitted across generations of learners, gradually adapting to the relevant brain structures and processes. In the context of this hypothesis, little is known on whether individual differences in neural processing capacity account for aspects of 'variation' observed in symbolic behavior and symbolic systems. We addressed this issue in the domain of auditory processing. We conducted a combined behavioral and EEG study on 2 successive days. On day 1, participants listened to standard and deviant five-tone sequences: as in previous oddball studies, an mismatch negativity (MMN) was elicited by deviant tones. On day 2, participants learned an artificial signaling system from a trained confederate of the experimenters in a coordination game in which five-tone sequences were associated to affective meanings (emotion-laden pictures of human faces). In a subsequent game with identical structure, participants transmitted and occasionally changed the signaling system learned during the first game. The MMN latency from day 1 predicted learning, transmission and structural modification of signaling systems on day 2. Our study introduces neurophysiological methods into research on cultural transmission and evolution, and relates aspects of variation in symbolic systems to individual differences in neural information processing. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Individual personality differences in goats predict their performance in visual learning and non-associative cognitive tasks.

PubMed

Nawroth, Christian; Prentice, Pamela M; McElligott, Alan G

2017-01-01

Variation in common personality traits, such as boldness or exploration, is often associated with risk-reward trade-offs and behavioural flexibility. To date, only a few studies have examined the effects of consistent behavioural traits on both learning and cognition. We investigated whether certain personality traits ('exploration' and 'sociability') of individuals were related to cognitive performance, learning flexibility and learning style in a social ungulate species, the goat (Capra hircus). We also investigated whether a preference for feature cues rather than impaired learning abilities can explain performance variation in a visual discrimination task. We found that personality scores were consistent across time and context. Less explorative goats performed better in a non-associative cognitive task, in which subjects had to follow the trajectory of a hidden object (i.e. testing their ability for object permanence). We also found that less sociable subjects performed better compared to more sociable goats in a visual discrimination task. Good visual learning performance was associated with a preference for feature cues, indicating personality-dependent learning strategies in goats. Our results suggest that personality traits predict the outcome in visual discrimination and non-associative cognitive tasks in goats and that impaired performance in a visual discrimination tasks does not necessarily imply impaired learning capacities, but rather can be explained by a varying preference for feature cues. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cardiorespiratory fitness as a predictor of intestinal microbial diversity and distinct metagenomic functions.

PubMed

Estaki, Mehrbod; Pither, Jason; Baumeister, Peter; Little, Jonathan P; Gill, Sandeep K; Ghosh, Sanjoy; Ahmadi-Vand, Zahra; Marsden, Katelyn R; Gibson, Deanna L

2016-08-08

Reduced microbial diversity in human intestines has been implicated in various conditions such as diabetes, colorectal cancer, and inflammatory bowel disease. The role of physical fitness in the context of human intestinal microbiota is currently not known. We used high-throughput sequencing to analyze fecal microbiota of 39 healthy participants with similar age, BMI, and diets but with varying cardiorespiratory fitness levels. Fecal short-chain fatty acids were analyzed using gas chromatography. We showed that peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak), the gold standard measure of cardiorespiratory fitness, can account for more than 20 % of the variation in taxonomic richness, after accounting for all other factors, including diet. While VO2peak did not explain variation in beta diversity, it did play a significant role in explaining variation in the microbiomes' predicted metagenomic functions, aligning positively with genes related to bacterial chemotaxis, motility, and fatty acid biosynthesis. These predicted functions were supported by measured increases in production of fecal butyrate, a short-chain fatty acid associated with improved gut health, amongst physically fit participants. We also identified increased abundances of key butyrate-producing taxa (Clostridiales, Roseburia, Lachnospiraceae, and Erysipelotrichaceae) amongst these individuals, which likely contributed to the observed increases in butyrate levels. Results from this study show that cardiorespiratory fitness is correlated with increased microbial diversity in healthy humans and that the associated changes are anchored around a set of functional cores rather than specific taxa. The microbial profiles of fit individuals favor the production of butyrate. As increased microbiota diversity and butyrate production is associated with overall host health, our findings warrant the use of exercise prescription as an adjuvant therapy in combating dysbiosis-associated diseases.

Climate and geochemistry as drivers of eucalypt diversification in Australia.

PubMed

Bui, E N; Thornhill, A H; González-Orozco, C E; Knerr, N; Miller, J T

2017-05-01

Eucalypts cover most of Australia. Here, we investigate the relative contribution of climate and geochemistry to the distribution and diversity of eucalypts. Using geostatistics, we estimate major element concentrations, pH, and electrical conductivity at sites where eucalypts have been recorded. We compare the median predicted geochemistry and reported substrate for individual species that appear associated with extreme conditions; this provides a partial evaluation of the predictions. We generate a site-by-species matrix by aggregating observations to the centroids of 100-km-wide grid cells, calculate diversity indices, and use numerical ecology methods (ordination, variation partitioning) to investigate the ecology of eucalypts and their response to climatic and geochemical gradients. We find that β-diversity coincides with variations in climatic and geochemical patterns. Climate and geochemistry together account for less than half of the variation in eucalypt species assemblages across Australia but for greater than 80% in areas of high species richness. Climate is more important than geochemistry in explaining eucalypts species distribution and change in assemblages across Australia as a whole but there are correlations between the two sets of environmental variables. Many individual eucalypt species and entire taxonomic sections (Aromatica, Longistylus of subgenus Eucalyptus, Dumaria, and Liberivalvae of subgenus Symphyomyrtus) have distributions affected strongly by geochemistry. We conclude that eucalypt diversity is driven by steep geochemical gradients that have arisen as climate patterns have fluctuated over Australia over the Cenozoic, generally aridifying since the Miocene. The diversification of eucalypts across Australia is thus an excellent example of co-evolution of landscapes and biota in space and time and challenges accepted notions of macroecology. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

UV-green iridescence predicts male quality during jumping spider contests.

PubMed

Lim, Matthew L M; Li, Daiqin

2013-01-01

Animal colour signals used in intraspecies communications can generally be attributed to a composite effect of structural and pigmentary colours. Notably, the functional role of iridescent coloration that is 'purely' structural (i.e., absence of pigments) is poorly understood. Recent studies reveal that iridescent colorations can reliably indicate individual quality, but evidence of iridescence as a pure structural coloration indicative of male quality during contests and relating to an individual's resource-holding potential (RHP) is lacking. In age- and size-controlled pairwise male-male contests that escalate from visual displays of aggression to more costly physical fights, we demonstrate that the ultraviolet-green iridescence of Cosmophasis umbratica predicts individual persistence and relates to RHP. Contest initiating males exhibited significantly narrower carapace band separation (i.e., relative spectral positions of UV and green hues) than non-initiators. Asymmetries in carapace and abdomen brightness influenced overall contest duration and escalation. As losers retreated upon having reached their own persistence limits in contests that escalated to physical fights, losers with narrower carapace band separation were significantly more persistence. We propose that the carapace UV-green iridescence of C. umbratica predicts individual persistence and is indicative of a male's RHP. As the observed UV-green hues of C. umbratica are 'pure' optical products of a multilayer reflector system, we suggest that intrasexual variations in the optical properties of the scales' chitin-air-chitin microstructures are responsible for the observed differences in carapace band separations.

Tonic and phasic co-variation of peripheral arousal indices in infants

PubMed Central

Wass, S.V.; de Barbaro, K.; Clackson, K.

2015-01-01

Tonic and phasic differences in peripheral autonomic nervous system (ANS) indicators strongly predict differences in attention and emotion regulation in developmental populations. However, virtually all previous research has been based on individual ANS measures, which poses a variety of conceptual and methodlogical challenges to comparing results across studies. Here we recorded heart rate, electrodermal activity (EDA), pupil size, head movement velocity and peripheral accelerometry concurrently while a cohort of 37 typical 12-month-old infants completed a mixed assessment battery lasting approximately 20 min per participant. We analysed covariation of these autonomic indices in three ways: first, tonic (baseline) arousal; second, co-variation in spontaneous (phasic) changes during testing; third, phasic co-variation relative to an external stimulus event. We found that heart rate, head velocity and peripheral accelerometry showed strong positive co-variation across all three analyses. EDA showed no co-variation in tonic activity levels but did show phasic positive co-variation with other measures, that appeared limited to sections of high but not low general arousal. Tonic pupil size showed significant positive covariation, but phasic pupil changes were inconsistent. We conclude that: (i) there is high covariation between autonomic indices in infants, but that EDA may only be sensitive at extreme arousal levels, (ii) that tonic pupil size covaries with other indices, but does not show predicted patterns of phasic change and (iii) that motor activity appears to be a good proxy measure of ANS activity. The strongest patterns of covariation were observed using epoch durations of 40 s per epoch, although significant covariation between indices was also observed using shorter epochs (1 and 5 s). PMID:26316360

Influences of spatial and temporal variation on fish-habitat relationships defined by regression quantiles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, J.B.; Cade, B.S.; Terrell, J.W.

2002-01-01

We used regression quantiles to model potentially limiting relationships between the standing crop of cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarki and measures of stream channel morphology. Regression quantile models indicated that variation in fish density was inversely related to the width:depth ratio of streams but not to stream width or depth alone. The spatial and temporal stability of model predictions were examined across years and streams, respectively. Variation in fish density with width:depth ratio (10th-90th regression quantiles) modeled for streams sampled in 1993-1997 predicted the variation observed in 1998-1999, indicating similar habitat relationships across years. Both linear and nonlinear models described the limiting relationships well, the latter performing slightly better. Although estimated relationships were transferable in time, results were strongly dependent on the influence of spatial variation in fish density among streams. Density changes with width:depth ratio in a single stream were responsible for the significant (P < 0.10) negative slopes estimated for the higher quantiles (>80th). This suggests that stream-scale factors other than width:depth ratio play a more direct role in determining population density. Much of the variation in densities of cutthroat trout among streams was attributed to the occurrence of nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis (a possible competitor) or connectivity to migratory habitats. Regression quantiles can be useful for estimating the effects of limiting factors when ecological responses are highly variable, but our results indicate that spatiotemporal variability in the data should be explicitly considered. In this study, data from individual streams and stream-specific characteristics (e.g., the occurrence of nonnative species and habitat connectivity) strongly affected our interpretation of the relationship between width:depth ratio and fish density.

What do we gain with Probabilistic Flood Loss Models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeter, K.; Kreibich, H.; Vogel, K.; Merz, B.; Lüdtke, S.

2015-12-01

The reliability of flood loss models is a prerequisite for their practical usefulness. Oftentimes, traditional uni-variate damage models as for instance depth-damage curves fail to reproduce the variability of observed flood damage. Innovative multi-variate probabilistic modelling approaches are promising to capture and quantify the uncertainty involved and thus to improve the basis for decision making. In this study we compare the predictive capability of two probabilistic modelling approaches, namely Bagging Decision Trees and Bayesian Networks and traditional stage damage functions which are cast in a probabilistic framework. For model evaluation we use empirical damage data which are available from computer aided telephone interviews that were respectively compiled after the floods in 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2013 in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. We carry out a split sample test by sub-setting the damage records. One sub-set is used to derive the models and the remaining records are used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Further we stratify the sample according to catchments which allows studying model performance in a spatial transfer context. Flood damage estimation is carried out on the scale of the individual buildings in terms of relative damage. The predictive performance of the models is assessed in terms of systematic deviations (mean bias), precision (mean absolute error) as well as in terms of reliability which is represented by the proportion of the number of observations that fall within the 95-quantile and 5-quantile predictive interval. The reliability of the probabilistic predictions within validation runs decreases only slightly and achieves a very good coverage of observations within the predictive interval. Probabilistic models provide quantitative information about prediction uncertainty which is crucial to assess the reliability of model predictions and improves the usefulness of model results.

Consistent Individual Differences Drive Collective Behavior and Group Functioning of Schooling Fish.

PubMed

Jolles, Jolle W; Boogert, Neeltje J; Sridhar, Vivek H; Couzin, Iain D; Manica, Andrea

2017-09-25

The ubiquity of consistent inter-individual differences in behavior ("animal personalities") [1, 2] suggests that they might play a fundamental role in driving the movements and functioning of animal groups [3, 4], including their collective decision-making, foraging performance, and predator avoidance. Despite increasing evidence that highlights their importance [5-16], we still lack a unified mechanistic framework to explain and to predict how consistent inter-individual differences may drive collective behavior. Here we investigate how the structure, leadership, movement dynamics, and foraging performance of groups can emerge from inter-individual differences by high-resolution tracking of known behavioral types in free-swimming stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) shoals. We show that individual's propensity to stay near others, measured by a classic "sociability" assay, was negatively linked to swim speed across a range of contexts, and predicted spatial positioning and leadership within groups as well as differences in structure and movement dynamics between groups. In turn, this trait, together with individual's exploratory tendency, measured by a classic "boldness" assay, explained individual and group foraging performance. These effects of consistent individual differences on group-level states emerged naturally from a generic model of self-organizing groups composed of individuals differing in speed and goal-orientedness. Our study provides experimental and theoretical evidence for a simple mechanism to explain the emergence of collective behavior from consistent individual differences, including variation in the structure, leadership, movement dynamics, and functional capabilities of groups, across social and ecological scales. In addition, we demonstrate individual performance is conditional on group composition, indicating how social selection may drive behavioral differentiation between individuals. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Individual variation in incentive salience attribution and accumbens dopamine transporter expression and function.

PubMed

Singer, Bryan F; Guptaroy, Bipasha; Austin, Curtis J; Wohl, Isabella; Lovic, Vedran; Seiler, Jillian L; Vaughan, Roxanne A; Gnegy, Margaret E; Robinson, Terry E; Aragona, Brandon J

2016-03-01

Cues (conditioned stimuli; CSs) associated with rewards can come to motivate behavior, but there is considerable individual variation in their ability to do so. For example, a lever-CS that predicts food reward becomes attractive and wanted, and elicits reward-seeking behavior, to a greater extent in some rats ('sign-trackers'; STs) than others ('goal-trackers'; GTs). Variation in dopamine (DA) neurotransmission in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) core is thought to contribute to such individual variation. Given that the DA transporter (DAT) exerts powerful regulation over DA signaling, we characterized the expression and function of the DAT in the accumbens of STs and GTs. STs showed greater DAT surface expression in ventral striatal synaptosomes than GTs, and ex vivo fast-scan cyclic voltammetry recordings of electrically evoked DA release confirmed enhanced DAT function in STs, as indicated by faster DA uptake, specifically in the NAc core. Consistent with this, systemic amphetamine (AMPH) produced greater inhibition of DA uptake in STs than in GTs. Furthermore, injection of AMPH directly into the NAc core enhanced lever-directed approach in STs, presumably by amplifying the incentive value of the CS, but had no effect on goal-tracking behavior. On the other hand, there were no differences between STs and GTs in electrically-evoked DA release in slices, or in total ventral striatal DA content. We conclude that greater DAT surface expression may facilitate the attribution of incentive salience to discrete reward cues. Investigating this variability in animal sub-populations may help explain why some people abuse drugs while others do not. © 2015 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Pacific Oyster Hemolymph Microbiota across Multiple Scales

PubMed Central

Lokmer, Ana; Goedknegt, M. Anouk; Thieltges, David W.; Fiorentino, Dario; Kuenzel, Sven; Baines, John F.; Wegner, K. Mathias

2016-01-01

Unveiling the factors and processes that shape the dynamics of host associated microbial communities (microbiota) under natural conditions is an important part of understanding and predicting an organism's response to a changing environment. The microbiota is shaped by host (i.e., genetic) factors as well as by the biotic and abiotic environment. Studying natural variation of microbial community composition in multiple host genetic backgrounds across spatial as well as temporal scales represents a means to untangle this complex interplay. Here, we combined a spatially-stratified with a longitudinal sampling scheme within differentiated host genetic backgrounds by reciprocally transplanting Pacific oysters between two sites in the Wadden Sea (Sylt and Texel). To further differentiate contingent site from host genetic effects, we repeatedly sampled the same individuals over a summer season to examine structure, diversity and dynamics of individual hemolymph microbiota following experimental removal of resident microbiota by antibiotic treatment. While a large proportion of microbiome variation could be attributed to immediate environmental conditions, we observed persistent effects of antibiotic treatment and translocation suggesting that hemolymph microbial community dynamics is subject to within-microbiome interactions and host population specific factors. In addition, the analysis of spatial variation revealed that the within-site microenvironmental heterogeneity resulted in high small-scale variability, as opposed to large-scale (between-site) stability. Similarly, considerable within-individual temporal variability was in contrast with the overall temporal stability at the site level. Overall, our longitudinal, spatially-stratified sampling design revealed that variation in hemolymph microbiota is strongly influenced by site and immediate environmental conditions, whereas internal microbiome dynamics and oyster-related factors add to their long-term stability. The combination of small and large scale resolution of spatial and temporal observations therefore represents a crucial but underused tool to study host-associated microbiome dynamics. PMID:27630625

What explains between-school differences in rates of sexual experience?

PubMed Central

Henderson, Marion; Butcher, Isabella; Wight, Daniel; Williamson, Lisa; Raab, Gillian

2008-01-01

Background Schools have the potential to influence their pupils' behaviour through the school's social organisation and culture, as well as through the formal curriculum. This paper provides the first attempt to explain the differences between schools in rates of reported heterosexual sexual experience amongst 15 and 16 year olds. It first examined whether variations in rates of sexual experience remained after controlling for the known predictors of sexual activity. It then examined whether these residuals, or 'school effects', were attributable to processes within the school, or were more likely to reflect characteristics of the neighbourhood. Methods Longitudinal survey data from 4,926 pupils in 24 Scottish schools were linked to qualitative and quantitative data on school processes including quality of relationships (staff-pupil, etc), classroom discipline, organisation of Personal and Social Education, school appearance and pupil morale. Multi-level modelling was used to test a range of models and the resulting 'school effects' were then interpreted using the process data. Results Overall, 42% of girls and 33% of boys reported experience of sexual intercourse, with rates by school ranging from 23% to 61%. When individual socio-economic and socio-cultural factors were taken into account the school variation dropped sharply, though pupils' attitudes and aspirations had little effect. There was very little correlation between boys' and girls' rates of sexual experience by school, after controlling for known predictors of sexual activity. Girls were more influenced by individual socio-economic factors than boys. School-level socio-economic factors were predictive even after taking account of individual socio-cultural factors, suggesting that the wider socio-economic environment further influenced young people's sexual experience. Conclusion Importantly, school processes did not explain the variation between schools in sexual experience. Rather, the variation may have been due to neighbourhood culture. PMID:18261205

On the implications of the classical ergodic theorems: analysis of developmental processes has to focus on intra-individual variation.

PubMed

Molenaar, Peter C M

2008-01-01

It is argued that general mathematical-statistical theorems imply that standard statistical analysis techniques of inter-individual variation are invalid to investigate developmental processes. Developmental processes have to be analyzed at the level of individual subjects, using time series data characterizing the patterns of intra-individual variation. It is shown that standard statistical techniques based on the analysis of inter-individual variation appear to be insensitive to the presence of arbitrary large degrees of inter-individual heterogeneity in the population. An important class of nonlinear epigenetic models of neural growth is described which can explain the occurrence of such heterogeneity in brain structures and behavior. Links with models of developmental instability are discussed. A simulation study based on a chaotic growth model illustrates the invalidity of standard analysis of inter-individual variation, whereas time series analysis of intra-individual variation is able to recover the true state of affairs. (c) 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Does spatial variation in environmental conditions affect recruitment? A study using a 3-D model of Peruvian anchovy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yi; Rose, Kenneth A.; Chai, Fei; Chavez, Francisco P.; Ayón, Patricia

2015-11-01

We used a 3-dimensional individual-based model (3-D IBM) of Peruvian anchovy to examine how spatial variation in environmental conditions affects larval and juvenile growth and survival, and recruitment. Temperature, velocity, and phytoplankton and zooplankton concentrations generated from a coupled hydrodynamic Nutrients-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) model, mapped to a three dimensional rectangular grid, were used to simulate anchovy populations. The IBM simulated individuals as they progressed from eggs to recruitment at 10 cm. Eggs and yolk-sac larvae were followed hourly through the processes of development, mortality, and movement (advection), and larvae and juveniles were followed daily through the processes of growth, mortality, and movement (advection plus behavior). A bioenergetics model was used to grow larvae and juveniles. The NPZD model provided prey fields which influence both food consumption rate as well as behavior mediated movement with individuals going to grids cells having optimal growth conditions. We compared predicted recruitment for monthly cohorts for 1990 through 2004 between the full 3-D IBM and a point (0-D) model that used spatially-averaged environmental conditions. The 3-D and 0-D versions generated similar interannual patterns in monthly recruitment for 1991-2004, with the 3-D results yielding consistently higher survivorship. Both versions successfully captured the very poor recruitment during the 1997-1998 El Niño event. Higher recruitment in the 3-D simulations was due to higher survival during the larval stage resulting from individuals searching for more favorable temperatures that lead to faster growth rates. The strong effect of temperature was because both model versions provided saturating food conditions for larval and juvenile anchovies. We conclude with a discussion of how explicit treatment of spatial variation affected simulated recruitment, other examples of fisheries modeling analyses that have used a similar approach to assess the influence of spatial variation, and areas for further model development.

Characterization of the genetic variation present in CYP3A4 in three South African populations.

PubMed

Drögemöller, Britt; Plummer, Marieth; Korkie, Lundi; Agenbag, Gloudi; Dunaiski, Anke; Niehaus, Dana; Koen, Liezl; Gebhardt, Stefan; Schneider, Nicol; Olckers, Antonel; Wright, Galen; Warnich, Louise

2013-01-01

The CYP3A4 enzyme is the most abundant human cytochrome P450 (CYP) and is regarded as the most important enzyme involved in drug metabolism. Inter-individual and inter-population variability in gene expression and enzyme activity are thought to be influenced, in part, by genetic variation. Although Southern African individuals have been shown to exhibit the highest levels of genetic diversity, they have been under-represented in pharmacogenetic research to date. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify genetic variation within CYP3A4 in three South African population groups comprising of 29 Khoisan, 65 Xhosa and 65 Mixed Ancestry (MA) individuals. To identify known and novel CYP3A4 variants, 15 individuals were randomly selected from each of the population groups for bi-directional Sanger sequencing of ~600 bp of the 5'-upstream region and all thirteen exons including flanking intronic regions. Genetic variants detected were genotyped in the rest of the cohort. In total, 24 SNPs were detected, including CYP3A4(*)12, CYP3A4(*)15, and the reportedly functional CYP3A4(*)1B promoter polymorphism, as well as two novel non-synonymous variants. These putatively functional variants, p.R162W and p.Q200H, were present in two of the three populations and all three populations, respectively, and in silico analysis predicted that the former would damage the protein product. Furthermore, the three populations were shown to exhibit distinct genetic profiles. These results confirm that South African populations show unique patterns of variation in the genes encoding xenobiotic metabolizing enzymes. This research suggests that population-specific genetic profiles for CYP3A4 and other drug metabolizing genes would be essential to make full use of pharmacogenetics in Southern Africa. Further investigation is needed to determine if the identified genetic variants influence CYP3A4 metabolism phenotype in these populations.

Four-factor justice and daily job satisfaction: a multilevel investigation.

PubMed

Loi, Raymond; Yang, Jixia; Diefendorff, James M

2009-05-01

This study examined the differential effects of 4 types of organizational justice on daily job satisfaction at between- and within-individual levels. Specifically, the authors predicted that interpersonal justice and informational justice would exhibit meaningful daily variations and would have direct impacts on individuals' job satisfaction on a daily basis. They further theorized that distributive justice and procedural justice at a between-person level would moderate the within-person relationships. The authors used hierarchical linear modeling to test their hypotheses with a sample of 231 full-time employees in Hong Kong over the course of 25 working days. The results showed that both daily interpersonal and informational justice were positively related to daily job satisfaction. As hypothesized, between-individual distributive justice moderated the relationship between daily interpersonal justice and daily job satisfaction, and between-individual procedural justice moderated the relationship between daily informational justice and daily job satisfaction. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

The Trail Less Traveled: Individual Decision-Making and Its Effect on Group Behavior

PubMed Central

Lanan, Michele C.; Dornhaus, Anna; Jones, Emily I.; Waser, Andrew; Bronstein, Judith L.

2012-01-01

Social insect colonies are complex systems in which the interactions of many individuals lead to colony-level collective behaviors such as foraging. However, the emergent properties of collective behaviors may not necessarily be adaptive. Here, we examine symmetry breaking, an emergent pattern exhibited by some social insects that can lead colonies to focus their foraging effort on only one of several available food patches. Symmetry breaking has been reported to occur in several ant species. However, it is not clear whether it arises as an unavoidable epiphenomenon of pheromone recruitment, or whether it is an adaptive behavior that can be controlled through modification of the individual behavior of workers. In this paper, we used a simulation model to test how symmetry breaking is affected by the degree of non-linearity of recruitment, the specific mechanism used by individuals to choose between patches, patch size, and forager number. The model shows that foraging intensity on different trails becomes increasingly asymmetric as the recruitment response of individuals varies from linear to highly non-linear, supporting the predictions of previous work. Surprisingly, we also found that the direction of the relationship between forager number (i.e., colony size) and asymmetry varied depending on the specific details of the decision rule used by individuals. Limiting the size of the resource produced a damping effect on asymmetry, but only at high forager numbers. Variation in the rule used by individual ants to choose trails is a likely mechanism that could cause variation among the foraging behaviors of species, and is a behavior upon which selection could act. PMID:23112880

Exploratory behavior is linked to stress physiology and social network centrality in free-living house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus).

PubMed

Moyers, Sahnzi C; Adelman, James S; Farine, Damien R; Moore, Ignacio T; Hawley, Dana M

2018-06-01

Animal personality has been linked to individual variation in both stress physiology and social behaviors, but few studies have simultaneously examined covariation between personality traits, stress hormone levels, and behaviors in free-living animals. We investigated relationships between exploratory behavior (one aspect of animal personality), stress physiology, and social and foraging behaviors in wild house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus). We conducted novel environment assays after collecting samples of baseline and stress-induced plasma corticosterone concentrations from a subset of house finches. We then fitted individuals with Passive Integrated Transponder tags and monitored feeder use and social interactions at radio-frequency identification equipped bird feeders. First, we found that individuals with higher baseline corticosterone concentrations exhibit more exploratory behaviors in a novel environment. Second, more exploratory individuals interacted with more unique conspecifics in the wild, though this result was stronger for female than for male house finches. Third, individuals that were quick to begin exploring interacted more frequently with conspecifics than slow-exploring individuals. Finally, exploratory behaviors were unrelated to foraging behaviors, including the amount of time spent on bird feeders, a behavior previously shown to be predictive of acquiring a bacterial disease that causes annual epidemics in house finches. Overall, our results indicate that individual differences in exploratory behavior are linked to variation in both stress physiology and social network traits in free-living house finches. Such covariation has important implications for house finch ecology, as both traits can contribute to fitness in the wild. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A test of a linear model of glaucomatous structure-function loss reveals sources of variability in retinal nerve fiber and visual field measurements.

PubMed

Hood, Donald C; Anderson, Susan C; Wall, Michael; Raza, Ali S; Kardon, Randy H

2009-09-01

Retinal nerve fiber (RNFL) thickness and visual field loss data from patients with glaucoma were analyzed in the context of a model, to better understand individual variation in structure versus function. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) RNFL thickness and standard automated perimetry (SAP) visual field loss were measured in the arcuate regions of one eye of 140 patients with glaucoma and 82 normal control subjects. An estimate of within-individual (measurement) error was obtained by repeat measures made on different days within a short period in 34 patients and 22 control subjects. A linear model, previously shown to describe the general characteristics of the structure-function data, was extended to predict the variability in the data. For normal control subjects, between-individual error (individual differences) accounted for 87% and 71% of the total variance in OCT and SAP measures, respectively. SAP within-individual error increased and then decreased with increased SAP loss, whereas OCT error remained constant. The linear model with variability (LMV) described much of the variability in the data. However, 12.5% of the patients' points fell outside the 95% boundary. An examination of these points revealed factors that can contribute to the overall variability in the data. These factors include epiretinal membranes, edema, individual variation in field-to-disc mapping, and the location of blood vessels and degree to which they are included by the RNFL algorithm. The model and the partitioning of within- versus between-individual variability helped elucidate the factors contributing to the considerable variability in the structure-versus-function data.

Individualization of pubic hair bacterial communities and the effects of storage time and temperature.

PubMed

Williams, Diana W; Gibson, Greg

2017-01-01

A potential application of microbial genetics in forensic science is detection of transfer of the pubic hair microbiome between individuals during sexual intercourse using high-throughput sequencing. In addition to the primary need to show whether the pubic hair microbiome is individualizing, one aspect that must be addressed before using the microbiome in criminal casework involves the impact of storage on the microbiome of samples recovered for forensic testing. To test the effects of short-term storage, pubic hair samples were collected from volunteers and stored at room temperature (∼20°C), refrigerated (4°C), and frozen (-20°C) for 1 week, 2 weeks, 4 weeks, and 6 weeks along with a baseline sample. Individual microbial profiles (R 2 =0.69) and gender (R 2 =0.17) were the greatest sources of variation between samples. Because of this variation, individual and gender could be predicted using Random Forests supervised classification in this sample set with an overall error rate of 2.7%± 5.8% and 1.7%±5.2%, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference attributable to time of sampling or temperature of storage within individuals. Further work on larger sample sets will quantify the temporal consistency of individual profiles and define whether it is plausible to detect transfer between sexual partners. For short-term storage (≤6 weeks), recovery of the microbiome was not affected significantly by either storage time or temperature, suggesting that investigators and crime laboratories can use existing evidence storage methods. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Habitat Selection and Post-Release Movement of Reintroduced Brown Treecreeper Individuals in Restored Temperate Woodland

PubMed Central

Bennett, Victoria A.; Doerr, Veronica A. J.; Doerr, Erik D.; Manning, Adrian D.; Lindenmayer, David B.; Yoon, Hwan-Jin

2012-01-01

It is essential to choose suitable habitat when reintroducing a species into its former range. Habitat quality may influence an individual’s dispersal decisions and also ultimately where they choose to settle. We examined whether variation in habitat quality (quantified by the level of ground vegetation cover and the installation of nest boxes) influenced the movement, habitat choice and survival of a reintroduced bird species. We experimentally reintroduced seven social groups (43 individuals) of the brown treecreeper (Climacteris picumnus) into two nature reserves in south-eastern Australia. We radio-tracked 18 brown treecreepers from release in November 2009 until February 2010. We observed extensive movements by individuals irrespective of the release environment or an individual’s gender. This indicated that individuals were capable of dispersing and actively selecting optimum habitat. This may alleviate pressure on wildlife planners to accurately select the most optimum release sites, so long as the species’ requirements are met. There was significant variation in movement between social groups, suggesting that social factors may be a more important influence on movement than habitat characteristics. We found a significant effect of ground vegetation cover on the likelihood of settlement by social groups, with high rates of settlement and survival in dry forests, rather than woodland (where the species typically resides), which has implications for the success of woodland restoration. However, overall the effects of variation in habitat quality were not as strong as we had expected, and resulted in some unpredicted effects such as low survival and settlement in woodland areas with medium levels of ground vegetation cover. The extensive movement by individuals and unforeseen effects of habitat characteristics make it difficult to predict the outcome of reintroductions, the movement behaviour and habitat selection of reintroduced individuals, particularly when based on current knowledge of a species’ ecology. PMID:23227192

Individual Quality Explains Variation in Reproductive Success Better than Territory Quality in a Long-Lived Territorial Raptor

PubMed Central

Zabala, Jabi; Zuberogoitia, Iñigo

2014-01-01

Evolution by natural selection depends on the relationship between individual traits and fitness. Variation in individual fitness can result from habitat (territory) quality and individual variation. Individual quality and specialization can have a deep impact on fitness, yet in most studies on territorial species the quality of territory and individuals are confused. We aimed to determine if variation in breeding success is better explained by territories, individual quality or a combination of both. We analysed the number of fledglings and the breeding quality index (the difference between the number of fledglings of an individual/breeding pair and the average number of fledglings of the monitored territories in the same year) as part of a long term (16 years) peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) monitoring program with identification of individuals. Using individual and territory identities as correlates of quality, we built Generalised Linear Models with Mixed effects, in which random factors depicted different hypotheses for sources of variation (territory/individual quality) in the reproductive success of unique breeding pairs, males and females, and assessed their performance. Most evidence supported the hypothesis that variation in breeding success is explained by individual identity, particularly male identity, rather than territory. There is also some evidence for inter year variations in the breeding success of females and a territory effect in the case of males. We argue that, in territorial species, individual quality is a major source of variation in breeding success, often masked by territory. Future ecological and conservation studies on habitat use should consider and include the effect of individuals, in order to avoid misleading results. PMID:24599280

A model of the atmospheric metal deposition by cosmic dust particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeil, W. J.

1993-11-01

We have developed a model of the deposition of meteoric metals in Earth's atmosphere. The model takes as input the total mass influx of material to the Earth and calculates the deposition rate at all altitudes through solution of the drag and subliminal equations in a Monte Carlo-type computation. The diffusion equation is then solved to give steady state concentration of complexes of specific metal species and kinetics are added to calculate the concentration of individual complexes. Concentrating on sodium, we calculate the Na(D) nightglow predicted by the model, and by introduction of seasonal variations in lower tropospheric ozone based on experimental results, we are able to duplicate the seasonal variation of mid-latitude nightglow data.