Implicit attitudes towards smoking predict long-term relapse in abstinent smokers.

PubMed

Spruyt, Adriaan; Lemaigre, Valentine; Salhi, Bihiyga; Van Gucht, Dinska; Tibboel, Helen; Van Bockstaele, Bram; De Houwer, Jan; Van Meerbeeck, Jan; Nackaerts, Kristiaan

2015-07-01

It has previously been argued that implicit attitudes toward substance-related cues drive addictive behavior. Nevertheless, it remains an open question whether behavioral markers of implicit attitude activation can be used to predict long-term relapse. The main objective of this study was to examine the relationship between implicit attitudes toward smoking-related cues and long-term relapse in abstaining smokers. Implicit attitudes toward smoking-related cues were assessed by means of the Implicit Association Test (IAT) and the evaluative priming task (EPT). Both measures were completed by a group of smokers who volunteered to quit smoking (patient group) and a group of nonsmokers (control group). Participants in the patient group completed these measures twice: once prior to smoking cessation and once after smoking cessation. Relapse was assessed by means of short telephone survey, 6 months after completion of the second test session. EPT scores obtained prior to smoking cessation were related to long-term relapse and correlated with self-reported nicotine dependence as well as daily cigarette consumption. In contrast, none of the behavioral outcome measures were found to correlate with the IAT scores. These findings corroborate the idea that implicit attitudes toward substance-related cues are critically involved in long-term relapse. A potential explanation for the divergent findings obtained with the IAT and EPT is provided.

Combined Experimental and Computational Approach to Predict the Glass-Water Reaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pierce, Eric M.; Bacon, Diana H.

2011-10-01

The use of mineral and glass dissolution rates measured in laboratory experiments to predict the weathering of primary minerals and volcanic and nuclear waste glasses in field studies requires the construction of rate models that accurately describe the weathering process over geologic timescales. Additionally, the need to model the long-term behavior of nuclear waste glass for the purpose of estimating radionuclide release rates requires that rate models be validated with long-term experiments. Several long-term test methods have been developed to accelerate the glass-water reaction [drip test, vapor hydration test, product consistency test B, and pressurized unsaturated flow (PUF)], thereby reducingmore » the duration required to evaluate long-term performance. Currently, the PUF test is the only method that mimics the unsaturated hydraulic properties expected in a subsurface disposal facility and simultaneously monitors the glass-water reaction. PUF tests are being conducted to accelerate the weathering of glass and validate the model parameters being used to predict long-term glass behavior. A one-dimensional reactive chemical transport simulation of glass dissolution and secondary phase formation during a 1.5-year-long PUF experiment was conducted with the Subsurface Transport Over Reactive Multiphases (STORM) code. Results show that parameterization of the computer model by combining direct bench scale laboratory measurements and thermodynamic data provides an integrated approach to predicting glass behavior over the length of the experiment. Over the 1.5-year-long test duration, the rate decreased from 0.2 to 0.01 g/(m2 day) based on B release for low-activity waste glass LAWA44. The observed decrease is approximately two orders of magnitude higher than the decrease observed under static conditions with the SON68 glass (estimated to be a decrease by four orders of magnitude) and suggests that the gel-layer properties are less protective under these dynamic conditions.« less

Combined Experimental and Computational Approach to Predict the Glass-Water Reaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pierce, Eric M; Bacon, Diana

2011-01-01

The use of mineral and glass dissolution rates measured in laboratory experiments to predict the weathering of primary minerals and volcanic and nuclear waste glasses in field studies requires the construction of rate models that accurately describe the weathering process over geologic time-scales. Additionally, the need to model the long-term behavior of nuclear waste glass for the purpose of estimating radionuclide release rates requires that rate models are validated with long-term experiments. Several long-term test methods have been developed to accelerate the glass-water reaction [drip test, vapor hydration test, product consistency test-B, and pressurized unsaturated flow (PUF)], thereby reducing themore » duration required to evaluate long-term performance. Currently, the PUF test is the only method that mimics the unsaturated hydraulic properties expected in a subsurface disposal facility and simultaneously monitors the glass-water reaction. PUF tests are being conducted to accelerate the weathering of glass and validate the model parameters being used to predict long-term glass behavior. A one-dimensional reactive chemical transport simulation of glass dissolution and secondary phase formation during a 1.5-year long PUF experiment was conducted with the subsurface transport over reactive multi-phases code. Results show that parameterization of the computer model by combining direct bench-scale laboratory measurements and thermodynamic data provides an integrated approach to predicting glass behavior over the length of the experiment. Over the 1.5-year long test duration, the rate decreased from 0.2 to 0.01 g/(m2 d) base on B release. The observed decrease is approximately two orders of magnitude higher than the decrease observed under static conditions with the SON68 glass (estimated to be a decrease by 4 orders of magnitude) and suggest the gel-layer properties are less protective under these dynamic conditions.« less

Long-Term Mechanical Behavior of Yucca Mountain Tuff and its Variability, Final Technical Report for Task ORD-FY04-021

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daemen, Jaak J.K.; Ma, Lumin; Zhao, Guohua

The study of the long term mechanical behavior of Yucca Mountain tuffs is important for several reasons. Long term stability of excavations will affect accessibility (e.g. for inspection purposes), and retrievability. Long term instabilities may induce loading of drip shields and/or emplaced waste, thus affecting drip shield and/or waste package corrosion. Failure of excavations will affect airflow, may affect water flow, and may affect temperature distributions. The long term mechanical behavior of rocks remains an elusive topic, loaded with uncertainties. A variety of approaches have been used to improve the understanding of this complex subject, but it is doubtful thatmore » it has reached a stage where firm predictions can be considered feasible. The long term mechanical behavior of "soft" rocks, especially evaporites, and in particular rock salt, has been the subject of numerous investigations (e.g. Cristescu and Hunsche, 1998, Cristescu et al, 2002), and basic approaches towards engineering taking into account the long term behavior of such materials have long been well established (e.g. Dreyer, 1972, 1982). The same is certainly not true of "hard" rocks. While it long has been recognized that the long term strength of ?hard? rocks almost certainly is significantly less than that measured during "short", i.e. standard (ASTM D 2938), ISRM suggested (Bieniawski et al, 1978) and conventionally used test procedures (e.g. Bieniawski, 1970, Wawersik, 1972, Hoek and Brown, 1980, p. 150), what limited approaches have been taken to develop strategies toward determining the long term mechanical behavior of "hard" rock remain in the early research and investigation stage, at best. One early model developed specifically for time dependent analysis of underground "hard" rock structures is the phenomenological model by Kaiser and Morgenstern (1981). Brady and Brown (1985, p. 93) state that over a wide range of strain rates, from 10^-8 to 10^2/s the difference in strength is only a factor of 2, and that "the observed behavior of rock is not significantly influenced by varying the strain rate within the range that is convenient to use in quasi-static laboratory compression tests." While this is undoubtedly true, it does not really address the question as to whether or not strengths thus measured can be considered appropriate for estimating long term strengths. One objective of this investigation was to evaluate the applicability of the approaches by Cruden (e.g. Cruden, 1971, 1974, 1983, 1987) and by Lajtai (e.g. Lajtai and Schmidtke, 1986, 1987) to the prediction of the long term mechanical behavior of the investigated tuffs. This involves in particular static fatigue testing, by conducting uniaxial, triaxial, and indirect splitting (Brazilian) tests over a wide range of strain (or stress, or displacement) rates.« less

Effects of Aging-Time Reference on the Long Term Behavior of the IM7/K3B Composite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veazie, David R.; Gates, Thomas S.

1998-01-01

An analytical study was undertaken to investigate the effects of the time-based shift reference on the long term behavior of the graphite reinforced thermoplastic polyimide composite IM7/K3B at elevated temperature. Creep compliance and the effects of physical aging on the time dependent response was measured for uniaxial loading at several isothermal conditions below the glass transition temperature (T(sub g). Two matrix dominated loading modes, shear and transverse, were investigated in tension and compression. The momentary sequenced creep/aging curves were collapsed through a horizontal (time) shift using the shortest, middle and longest aging time curve as the reference curve. Linear viscoelasticity was used to characterize the creep/recovery behavior and superposition techniques were used to establish the physical aging related material constants. The use of effective time expressions in a laminated plate model allowed for the prediction of long term creep compliance. The effect of using different reference curves with time/aging-time superposition was most sensitive to the physical aging shift rate at lower test temperatures. Depending on the loading mode, the reference curve used can result in a more accurate long term prediction, especially at lower test temperatures.

Accelerated Weathering of Waste Glass at 90°C with the Pressurized Unsaturated Flow (PUF) Apparatus: Implications for Predicting Glass Corrosion with a Reactive Transport Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pierce, Eric M.; Bacon, Diana H.

2009-09-21

The interest in the long-term durability of waste glass stems from the need to predict radionuclide release rates from the corroding glass over geologic time-scales. Several long-term test methods have been developed to accelerate the glass-water reaction [drip test, vapor hydration test, product consistency test-B, and pressurized unsaturated flow (PUF)]. Currently, the PUF test is the only method that can mimic the unsaturated hydraulic properties expected in a subsurface disposal facility and simultaneously monitor the glass-water reaction. PUF tests are being conducted to accelerate the weathering of glass and validate the model parameters being used to predict long-term glass behavior.more » One dimensional reactive chemical transport simulations of glass dissolution and secondary phase formation during a 1.5-year long PUF experiment was conducted with the subsurface transport over reactive multi-phases (STORM) code. Results show that parameterization of the computer model by combining direct laboratory measurements and thermodynamic data provides an integrated approach to predicting glass behavior over geologic-time scales.« less

Greater emotional arousal predicts poorer long-term memory of communication skills in couples.

PubMed

Baucom, Brian R; Weusthoff, Sarah; Atkins, David C; Hahlweg, Kurt

2012-06-01

Many studies have examined the importance of learning skills in behaviorally based couple interventions but none have examined predictors of long-term memory for skills. Associations between emotional arousal and long-term recall of communication skills delivered to couples during a behaviorally based relationship distress prevention program were examined in a sample of 49 German couples. Fundamental frequency (f(0)), a vocal measure of encoded emotional arousal, was measured during pre-treatment couple conflict. Higher levels of f(0) were linked to fewer skills remembered 11 years after completing the program, and women remembered more skills than men. Implications of results for behaviorally based couple interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of narcissism in health-risk and health-protective behaviors.

PubMed

Hill, Erin M

2016-09-01

This study examined the role of narcissism in health-risk and health-protective behaviors in a sample of 365 undergraduate students. Regression analyses were used to test the influence of narcissism on health behaviors. Narcissism was positively predictive of alcohol use, marijuana use, and risky driving behaviors, and it was associated with an increased likelihood of consistently having a healthy eating pattern. Narcissism was also positively predictive of physical activity. Results are discussed with reference to the potential short-term and long-term health implications and the need for future research on the factors involved in the relationship between narcissism and health behaviors. © The Author(s) 2015.

Maternal beliefs as long-term predictors of mother-child interaction and report.

PubMed

Kochanska, G

1990-12-01

2 kinds of parental beliefs: endorsed rearing philosophy (authoritative-authoritarian dimension) and affective attitude toward child (positive-negative affect dimension) were examined in 20 normal and 36 depressed mothers as long-term predictors of their rearing behaviors and interaction patterns with their children, and of their ratings of child externalizing problems (Achenbach CBCL). The beliefs were measured when the children were toddlers (Time 1), and maternal behaviors 2-3 years later (Time 2). Mothers' endorsement of the belief in authoritative parenting predicted their frequent avoidance of prohibitive interventions. It also predicted maternal autonomy-granting to the child (more compliant and liberal responses to child-initiated control interventions). Endorsed child-rearing philosophy was a relatively more important predictor of behavior for normal mothers, and affective attitude toward child for the behavior of depressed mothers. Both actual child noncompliance and parental beliefs predicted mothers' ratings of externalizing problems in their children. The former was relatively more important for normal and latter for depressed mothers.

A new model integrating short- and long-term aging of copper added to soils

PubMed Central

Zeng, Saiqi; Li, Jumei; Wei, Dongpu

2017-01-01

Aging refers to the processes by which the bioavailability/toxicity, isotopic exchangeability, and extractability of metals added to soils decline overtime. We studied the characteristics of the aging process in copper (Cu) added to soils and the factors that affect this process. Then we developed a semi-mechanistic model to predict the lability of Cu during the aging process with descriptions of the diffusion process using complementary error function. In the previous studies, two semi-mechanistic models to separately predict short-term and long-term aging of Cu added to soils were developed with individual descriptions of the diffusion process. In the short-term model, the diffusion process was linearly related to the square root of incubation time (t1/2), and in the long-term model, the diffusion process was linearly related to the natural logarithm of incubation time (lnt). Both models could predict short-term or long-term aging processes separately, but could not predict the short- and long-term aging processes by one model. By analyzing and combining the two models, we found that the short- and long-term behaviors of the diffusion process could be described adequately using the complementary error function. The effect of temperature on the diffusion process was obtained in this model as well. The model can predict the aging process continuously based on four factors—soil pH, incubation time, soil organic matter content and temperature. PMID:28820888

DYT1 dystonia increases risk taking in humans.

PubMed

Arkadir, David; Radulescu, Angela; Raymond, Deborah; Lubarr, Naomi; Bressman, Susan B; Mazzoni, Pietro; Niv, Yael

2016-06-01

It has been difficult to link synaptic modification to overt behavioral changes. Rodent models of DYT1 dystonia, a motor disorder caused by a single gene mutation, demonstrate increased long-term potentiation and decreased long-term depression in corticostriatal synapses. Computationally, such asymmetric learning predicts risk taking in probabilistic tasks. Here we demonstrate abnormal risk taking in DYT1 dystonia patients, which is correlated with disease severity, thereby supporting striatal plasticity in shaping choice behavior in humans.

The effects of physical aging at elevated temperatures on the viscoelastic creep on IM7/K3B

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gates, Thomas S.; Feldman, Mark

1994-01-01

Physical aging at elevated temperature of the advanced composite IM7/K3B was investigated through the use of creep compliance tests. Testing consisted of short term isothermal, creep/recovery with the creep segments performed at constant load. The matrix dominated transverse tensile and in-plane shear behavior were measured at temperatures ranging from 200 to 230 C. Through the use of time based shifting procedures, the aging shift factors, shift rates and momentary master curve parameters were found at each temperature. These material parameters were used as input to a predictive methodology, which was based upon effective time theory and linear viscoelasticity combined with classical lamination theory. Long term creep compliance test data was compared to predictions to verify the method. The model was then used to predict the long term creep behavior for several general laminates.

Creep behavior of bone cement: a method for time extrapolation using time-temperature equivalence.

PubMed

Morgan, R L; Farrar, D F; Rose, J; Forster, H; Morgan, I

2003-04-01

The clinical lifetime of poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) bone cement is considerably longer than the time over which it is convenient to perform creep testing. Consequently, it is desirable to be able to predict the long term creep behavior of bone cement from the results of short term testing. A simple method is described for prediction of long term creep using the principle of time-temperature equivalence in polymers. The use of the method is illustrated using a commercial acrylic bone cement. A creep strain of approximately 0.6% is predicted after 400 days under a constant flexural stress of 2 MPa. The temperature range and stress levels over which it is appropriate to perform testing are described. Finally, the effects of physical aging on the accuracy of the method are discussed and creep data from aged cement are reported.

Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

PubMed Central

Finlay, Andrea; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer L.

2014-01-01

Adolescent future values – beliefs about what will matter to them in the future – may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic privilege) predicted adult social roles, civic behaviors, and alcohol use. Future values positively predicted behaviors within the same domain; fewer cross-domain associations were evident. Civic responsibility positively predicted adult civic behaviors, but negatively predicted having children. Hedonistic privilege positively predicted adult alcohol use and negatively predicted civic behaviors. Results suggest that attention should be paid to how adolescents are thinking about their futures due to the associated links with long-term social and health behaviors. PMID:26279595

Short- and long-term eating habit modification predict weight change in overweight, post-menopausal women: results from the WOMAN Study

PubMed Central

Gibbs, Bethany Barone; Kinzel, Laura S.; Gabriel, Kelley Pettee; Chang, Yue-fang; Kuller, Lewis H.

2012-01-01

Background Standard behavioral obesity treatment produces poor long-term results. Focusing on healthy eating behaviors, rather than caloric intake, may be an alternative strategy. Furthermore, important behaviors might differ for short- vs. long-term weight control. Objective To describe and compare associations between changes in eating behaviors and weight after 6 and 48 months Design Secondary analysis of data collected during a randomized weight loss intervention trial with 48-month follow-up Participants 465 overweight and obese postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women on the Move through Activity and Nutrition (WOMAN) Study Main outcome measures Changes in weight from baseline to 6 and 48 months. Statistical analyses performed Linear regression models examined the associations between 6- and 48-month changes in eating habits assessed by the Conner Diet Habit Survey and changes in weight. Analyses were conducted in the combined study population and stratified by randomization group. Results At 6 months in the combined population, weight loss was independently associated with decreased desserts (p<0.001), restaurant eating (p=0.042), sugar-sweetened beverages (p=0.009), and fried foods (p<0.001), and increased fish consumption (p=0.003). Results were similar in intervention participants; only reduced desserts and fried foods associated with weight loss in controls. At 48 months in the combined population, weight loss was again associated with decreased desserts (p=0.003) and sugar-sweetened beverages (p=0.011), but also decreased meats/cheeses (p=0.024) and increased fruits/vegetables (p<0.001). Decreased meats/cheeses predicted weight loss in intervention participants; desserts, sugar-sweetened beverages, and fruits/vegetables were independently associated in controls. Conclusions Changes in eating behaviors were associated with weight change, though important behaviors differed for short- and long-term weight change and by randomization group. Future studies should determine whether interventions targeting these behaviors could improve long-term obesity treatment outcomes. PMID:22939439

An exotic long-term pattern in stock price dynamics.

PubMed

Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

2012-01-01

To accurately predict the movement of stock prices is always of both academic importance and practical value. So far, a lot of research has been reported to help understand the behavior of stock prices. However, some of the existing theories tend to render us the belief that the time series of stock prices are unpredictable on a long-term timescale. The question arises whether the long-term predictability exists in stock price dynamics. In this work, we analyze the price reversals in the US stock market and the Chinese stock market on the basis of a renormalization method. The price reversals are divided into two types: retracements (the downward trends after upward trends) and rebounds (the upward trends after downward trends), of which the intensities are described by dimensionless quantities, R(t) and R(b), respectively. We reveal that for both mature and emerging markets, the distribution of either retracements R(t) or rebounds R(b) shows two characteristic values, 0.335 and 0.665, both of which are robust over the long term. The methodology presented here provides a way to quantify the stock price reversals. Our findings strongly support the existence of the long-term predictability in stock price dynamics, and may offer a hint on how to predict the long-term movement of stock prices.

Implementing unpredictability in feeding enrichment for Malayan sun bears (Helarctos malayanus).

PubMed

Schneider, Marion; Nogge, Gunther; Kolter, Lydia

2014-01-01

Bears in the wild spend large proportions of time in foraging activities. In zoos their time budgets differ markedly from those of their wild counterparts. Feeding enrichment has been documented to increase foraging behavior and to reduce stereotypies. But in general these procedures have no long-term effects and result in habituation. As can be expected by the predictions of the optimal foraging theory, foraging activities are restricted as long as the availability of food is predictable. To quantify the effect of spatial unpredictability, three feeding methods have been designed to stimulate functional foraging behavior in captive Malayan sun bears in the long-term. In order to examine if habituation occurs, the most effective method was tested for 12 consecutive days. Activities of four adult sun bears at the Cologne Zoo were recorded by focal animal recording of foraging behaviors and time sampling of activities for a total of 360 hr. Implementing unpredictability significantly increased the time the bears spent foraging and led to a higher diversity of foraging behaviors. The effects lasted throughout the entire day and no habituation occurred in the course of 12 consecutive days. The study shows how functional species typical behavior in captive Malayan sun bears can be stimulated in the long-term by simulating natural characteristics of food availability. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long-Term Predictive and Feedback Encoding of Motor Signals in the Simple Spike Discharge of Purkinje Cells

PubMed Central

Popa, Laurentiu S.; Streng, Martha L.

2017-01-01

Abstract Most hypotheses of cerebellar function emphasize a role in real-time control of movements. However, the cerebellum’s use of current information to adjust future movements and its involvement in sequencing, working memory, and attention argues for predicting and maintaining information over extended time windows. The present study examines the time course of Purkinje cell discharge modulation in the monkey (Macaca mulatta) during manual, pseudo-random tracking. Analysis of the simple spike firing from 183 Purkinje cells during tracking reveals modulation up to 2 s before and after kinematics and position error. Modulation significance was assessed against trial shuffled firing, which decoupled simple spike activity from behavior and abolished long-range encoding while preserving data statistics. Position, velocity, and position errors have the most frequent and strongest long-range feedforward and feedback modulations, with less common, weaker long-term correlations for speed and radial error. Position, velocity, and position errors can be decoded from the population simple spike firing with considerable accuracy for even the longest predictive (-2000 to -1500 ms) and feedback (1500 to 2000 ms) epochs. Separate analysis of the simple spike firing in the initial hold period preceding tracking shows similar long-range feedforward encoding of the upcoming movement and in the final hold period feedback encoding of the just completed movement, respectively. Complex spike analysis reveals little long-term modulation with behavior. We conclude that Purkinje cell simple spike discharge includes short- and long-range representations of both upcoming and preceding behavior that could underlie cerebellar involvement in error correction, working memory, and sequencing. PMID:28413823

Long-term changes in cognitive bias and coping response as a result of chronic unpredictable stress during adolescence.

PubMed

Chaby, Lauren E; Cavigelli, Sonia A; White, Amanda; Wang, Kayllie; Braithwaite, Victoria A

2013-01-01

Animals that experience adverse events in early life often have life-long changes to their physiology and behavior. Long-term effects of stress during early life have been studied extensively, but less attention has been given to the consequences of negative experiences solely during the adolescent phase. Adolescence is a particularly sensitive period of life when regulation of the glucocorticoid "stress" hormone response matures and specific regions in the brain undergo considerable change. Aversive experiences during this time might, therefore, be expected to generate long-term consequences for the adult phenotype. Here we investigated the long-term effects of exposure to chronic unpredictable stress during adolescence on adult decision-making, coping response, cognitive bias, and exploratory behavior in rats. Rats exposed to chronic unpredictable stress (e.g., isolation, crowding, cage tilt) were compared to control animals that were maintained in standard, predictable conditions throughout development. Unpredictable stress during adolescence resulted in a suite of long-term behavioral and cognitive changes including a negative cognitive bias [F (1, 12) = 5.000, P < 0.05], altered coping response [T (1, 14) = 2.216, P = 0.04], and accelerated decision-making [T (1, 14) = 3.245, P = 0.01]. Exposure to chronic stress during adolescence also caused a short-term increase in boldness behaviors; in a novel object test 15 days after the last stressor, animals exposed to chronic unpredictable stress had decreased latencies to leave a familiar shelter and approach a novel object [T (1, 14) = 2.240, P = 0.04; T (1, 14) = 2.419, P = 0.03, respectively]. The results showed that stress during adolescence has long-term impacts on behavior and cognition that affect the interpretation of ambiguous stimuli, behavioral response to adverse events, and how animals make decisions.

Effects of physical aging on long-term behavior of composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brinson, L. Catherine

1993-01-01

The HSCT plane, envisioned to have a lifetime of over 60,000 flight hours and to travel at speeds in excess of Mach 2, is the source of intensive study at NASA. In particular, polymer matrix composites are being strongly considered for use in primary and secondary structures due to their high strength to weight ratio and the options of property tailoring. However, an added difficulty in the use of polymer based materials is that their properties change significantly over time, especially at the elevated temperatures that will be experienced during flight, and prediction of properties based on irregular thermal and mechanical loading is extremely difficult. This study focused on one aspect of long-term polymer composite behavior: physical aging. When a polymer is cooled to below its glass transition temperature, the material is not in thermodynamic equilibrium and the free volume and enthalpy evolve over time to approach their equilibrium values. During this time, the mechanical properties change significantly and this change is termed physical aging. This work begins with a review of the concepts of physical aging on a pure polymer system. The effective time theory, which can be used to predict long term behavior based on short term data, is mathematically formalized. The effects of aging to equilibrium are proven and discussed. The theory developed for polymers is then applied first to a unidirectional composite, then to a general laminate. Comparison to experimental data is excellent. It is shown that the effects of aging on the long-term properties of composites can be counter-intuitive, stressing the importance of the development and use of a predictive theory to analyze structures.

Time-series modeling of long-term weight self-monitoring data.

PubMed

Helander, Elina; Pavel, Misha; Jimison, Holly; Korhonen, Ilkka

2015-08-01

Long-term self-monitoring of weight is beneficial for weight maintenance, especially after weight loss. Connected weight scales accumulate time series information over long term and hence enable time series analysis of the data. The analysis can reveal individual patterns, provide more sensitive detection of significant weight trends, and enable more accurate and timely prediction of weight outcomes. However, long term self-weighing data has several challenges which complicate the analysis. Especially, irregular sampling, missing data, and existence of periodic (e.g. diurnal and weekly) patterns are common. In this study, we apply time series modeling approach on daily weight time series from two individuals and describe information that can be extracted from this kind of data. We study the properties of weight time series data, missing data and its link to individuals behavior, periodic patterns and weight series segmentation. Being able to understand behavior through weight data and give relevant feedback is desired to lead to positive intervention on health behaviors.

Self-concept and quality of object relations as predictors of outcome in short- and long-term psychotherapy.

PubMed

Lindfors, Olavi; Knekt, Paul; Heinonen, Erkki; Virtala, Esa

2014-01-01

Quality of object relations and self-concept reflect clinically relevant aspects of personality functioning, but their prediction as suitability factors for psychotherapies of different lengths has not been compared. This study compared their prediction on psychiatric symptoms and work ability in short- and long-term psychotherapy. Altogether 326 patients, 20-46 years of age, with mood and/or anxiety disorder, were randomized to short-term (solution-focused or short-term psychodynamic) psychotherapy and long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy. The Quality of Object Relations Scale (QORS) and the Structural Analysis of Social Behavior (SASB) self-concept questionnaire were measured at baseline, and their prediction on outcome during the 3-year follow-up was assessed by the Symptom Check List Global Severity Index and the Anxiety Scale, the Beck Depression Inventory and by the Work Ability Index, Social Adjustment Scale work subscale and the Perceived Psychological Functioning scale. Negative self-concept strongly and self-controlling characteristics modestly predicted better 3-year outcomes in long-term therapy, after faster early gains in short-term therapy. Patients with a more positive or self-emancipating self-concept, or more mature object relations, experienced more extensive benefits after long-term psychotherapy. The importance of length vs. long-term therapy technique on the differences found is not known. Patients with mild to moderate personality pathology, indicated by poor self-concept, seem to benefit more from long-term than short-term psychotherapy, in reducing risk of depression. Long-term therapy may also be indicated for patients with relatively good psychological functioning. More research is needed on the relative importance of these characteristics in comparison with other patient-related factors. © 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Processing short-term and long-term information with a combination of polynomial approximation techniques and time-delay neural networks.

PubMed

Fuchs, Erich; Gruber, Christian; Reitmaier, Tobias; Sick, Bernhard

2009-09-01

Neural networks are often used to process temporal information, i.e., any kind of information related to time series. In many cases, time series contain short-term and long-term trends or behavior. This paper presents a new approach to capture temporal information with various reference periods simultaneously. A least squares approximation of the time series with orthogonal polynomials will be used to describe short-term trends contained in a signal (average, increase, curvature, etc.). Long-term behavior will be modeled with the tapped delay lines of a time-delay neural network (TDNN). This network takes the coefficients of the orthogonal expansion of the approximating polynomial as inputs such considering short-term and long-term information efficiently. The advantages of the method will be demonstrated by means of artificial data and two real-world application examples, the prediction of the user number in a computer network and online tool wear classification in turning.

Acute and Chronic Stress: The Effects of Loss of Control

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-07-31

stressor affecting the health and well-being of the unemployed and their families. This study was designed to test how loss of control associated with...status: short-term ( unemployed for less than two months); long-term ( unemployed for longer than two months); and, employed controls. Perceptions of...the laboratory stressor resulting in performance deficits and helpless behavior. As predicted. compared to the other two groups. long-term unemployed

Reaction modeling of drainage quality in the Duluth Complex, northern Minnesota, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Seal, Robert; Lapakko, Kim; Piatak, Nadine; Woodruff, Laurel G.

2015-01-01

Reaction modeling can be a valuable tool in predicting the long-term behavior of waste material if representative rate constants can be derived from long-term leaching tests or other approaches. Reaction modeling using the REACT program of the Geochemist’s Workbench was conducted to evaluate long-term drainage quality affected by disseminated Cu-Ni-(Co-)-PGM sulfide mineralization in the basal zone of the Duluth Complex where significant resources have been identified. Disseminated sulfide minerals, mostly pyrrhotite and Cu-Fe sulfides, are hosted by clinopyroxene-bearing troctolites. Carbonate minerals are scarce to non-existent. Long-term simulations of up to 20 years of weathering of tailings used two different sets of rate constants: one based on published laboratory single-mineral dissolution experiments, and one based on leaching experiments using bulk material from the Duluth Complex conducted by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR). The simulations included only plagioclase, olivine, clinopyroxene, pyrrhotite, and water as starting phases. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were assumed to be in equilibrium with atmospheric oxygen. The simulations based on the published single-mineral rate constants predicted that pyrrhotite would be effectively exhausted in less than two years and pH would rise accordingly. In contrast, only 20 percent of the pyrrhotite was depleted after two years using the MNDNR rate constants. Predicted pyrrhotite depletion by the simulation based on the MNDNR rate constant matched well with published results of laboratory tests on tailings. Modeling long-term weathering of mine wastes also can provide important insights into secondary reactions that may influence the permeability of tailings and thereby affect weathering behavior. Both models predicted the precipitation of a variety of secondary phases including goethite, gibbsite, and clay (nontronite).

Perceived stress and anhedonia predict short-and long-term weight change, respectively, in healthy adults.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Mostafa; Thearle, Marie S; Krakoff, Jonathan; Gluck, Marci E

2016-04-01

Perceived stress; emotional eating; anhedonia; depression and dietary restraint, hunger, and disinhibition have been studied as risk factors for obesity. However, the majority of studies have been cross-sectional and the directionality of these relationships remains unclear. In this longitudinal study, we assess their impact on future weight change. Psychological predictors of weight change in short- (6month) and long-term (>1year) periods were studied in 65 lean and obese individuals in two cohorts. Subjects participated in studies of food intake and metabolism that did not include any type of medication or weight loss interventions. They completed psychological questionnaires at baseline and weight change was monitored at follow-up visits. At six months, perceived stress predicted weight gain (r(2)=0.23, P=0.02). There was a significant interaction (r(2)=.38, P=0.009) between perceived stress and positive emotional eating, such that higher scores in both predicted greater weight gain, while those with low stress but high emotional eating scores lost weight. For long-term, higher anhedonia scores predicted weight gain (r(2)=0.24, P=0.04). Depression moderated these effects such that higher scores in both predicted weight gain but higher depression and lower anhedonia scores predicted weight loss. There are different behavioral determinants for short- and long-term weight change. Targeting perceived stress may help with short-term weight loss while depression and anhedonia may be better targets for long-term weight regulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Familial transient financial difficulties during infancy and long-term developmental concerns.

PubMed

Ramanathan, S; Balasubramanian, N; Faraone, S V

2017-09-01

Socioeconomic difficulties affect the cognitive and emotional development of children. However, the focus of prior studies has largely been on poverty and material hardship. This study expands on the existing literature by examining the impact of familial transient financial difficulties during infancy on long-term cognitive and behavioral outcomes. The National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth (79) were used to assess the association between a transient drop in family income by 50% or more (called transient income decline or TID) during the first 3 years of life and later-life Peabody Individual Achievement Math and Reading scores and behavior problem index (BPI) scores (N = 8272-17 348; median assessment age = 9 years). A subsample of matched siblings (N = 2049-4238) was examined to tease out maternal and intra-familial effects. Exposure to TID predicted increased total and externalizing BPI scores (std. coefficients of 0.10 and 0.09, respectively, p < 0.01) in the overall sample. Among matched siblings, exposure to TID predicted increased total, externalizing, and internalizing BPI scores (std. coefficients of 0.27, 0.25, and 0.23, respectively, p < 0.01). Familial transient financial difficulties can have long-lasting behavioral effects for infants. The study identifies an early risk factor and at-risk children, thus providing insight into developing early intervention measures for infants to avoid long-term behavioral problems.

Personality as a predictor of weight loss maintenance after surgery for morbid obesity.

PubMed

Larsen, Junilla K; Geenen, Rinie; Maas, Cora; de Wit, Pieter; van Antwerpen, Tiny; Brand, Nico; van Ramshorst, Bert

2004-11-01

Personality characteristics are assumed to underlie health behaviors and, thus, a variety of health outcomes. Our aim was to examine prospectively whether personality traits predict short- and long-term weight loss after laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding. Of patients undergoing laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding, 168 (143 women, 25 men, 18 to 58 years old, mean 37 years, preoperative BMI 45.9 +/- 5.6 kg/m(2)) completed the Dutch Personality Questionnaire on average 1.5 years before the operation. The relationship between preoperative personality and short- and long-term postoperative weight loss was determined using multilevel regression analysis. The average weight loss of patients progressively increased to 10 BMI points until 18 months after surgery and stabilized thereafter. A lower baseline BMI, being a man, and a higher educational level were associated with a lower weight loss. None of the personality variables was associated with weight outcome at short-term follow-up. Six of seven personality variables did not predict long-term weight outcome. Egoism was associated with less weight loss in the long-term postoperative period. The effect sizes of the significant predictions were small. None of the personality variables predicted short-term weight outcome, and only one variable showed a small and unexpected association with long-term weight outcome that needs confirmation. This suggests that personality assessment as intake psychological screening is of little use for the prediction of a poor or successful weight outcome after bariatric surgery.

DYT1 dystonia increases risk taking in humans

PubMed Central

Arkadir, David; Radulescu, Angela; Raymond, Deborah; Lubarr, Naomi; Bressman, Susan B; Mazzoni, Pietro; Niv, Yael

2016-01-01

It has been difficult to link synaptic modification to overt behavioral changes. Rodent models of DYT1 dystonia, a motor disorder caused by a single gene mutation, demonstrate increased long-term potentiation and decreased long-term depression in corticostriatal synapses. Computationally, such asymmetric learning predicts risk taking in probabilistic tasks. Here we demonstrate abnormal risk taking in DYT1 dystonia patients, which is correlated with disease severity, thereby supporting striatal plasticity in shaping choice behavior in humans. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.14155.001 PMID:27249418

Chronic Intranasal Oxytocin Causes Long-term Impairments in Partner Preference Formation in Male Prairie Voles

PubMed Central

Bales, Karen L.; Perkeybile, Allison M.; Conley, Olivia G.; Lee, Meredith H.; Guoynes, Caleigh D.; Downing, Griffin M.; Yun, Catherine R.; Solomon, Marjorie; Jacob, Suma; Mendoza, Sally P.

2012-01-01

Background Oxytocin (OT) is a hormone shown to be involved in social bonding in animal models. Intranasal OT is currently in clinical trials for use in disorders such as autism and schizophrenia. We examined long-term effects of intranasal OT given developmentally in the prairie vole (Microtus ochrogaster), a socially monogamous rodent, often used as an animal model to screen drugs that have therapeutic potential for social disorders. Methods We treated voles with one of three dosages of intranasal OT, or saline, from day 21 (weaning) through day 42 (sexual maturity). We examined both social behavior immediately following administration, as well as long-term changes in social and anxiety behavior after treatment ceased. Group sizes varied from 8 to 15 voles (n = 89 voles total). Results Treatment with OT resulted in acute increases in social behavior in males with familiar partners, as seen in humans. However, long-term developmental treatment with low doses of intranasal OT resulted in a deficit in partner preference behavior (a reduction of contact with a familiar opposite-sex partner, used to index pair-bond formation) by males. Conclusions Long-term developmental treatment with OT may show results different to those predicted by short-term studies, as well as significant sex differences and dosage effects. Further animal study is crucial to determining safe and effective strategies for use of chronic intranasal OT, especially during development. PMID:23079235

Long-term changes in neurocognition and behavior following treatment of sleep disordered breathing in school-aged children.

PubMed

Biggs, Sarah N; Vlahandonis, Anna; Anderson, Vicki; Bourke, Robert; Nixon, Gillian M; Davey, Margot J; Horne, Rosemary S C

2014-01-01

Sleep disordered breathing (SDB) in children is associated with detrimental neurocognitive and behavioral consequences. The long term impact of treatment on these outcomes is unknown. This study examined the long-term effect of treatment of SDB on neurocognition, academic ability, and behavior in a cohort of school-aged children. Four-year longitudinal study. Children originally diagnosed with SDB and healthy non-snoring controls underwent repeat polysomnography and age-standardized neurocognitive and behavioral assessment 4y following initial testing. Melbourne Children's Sleep Centre, Melbourne, Australia. Children 12-16 years of age, originally assessed at 7-12 years, were categorized into Treated (N = 12), Untreated (N = 26), and Control (N = 18) groups. Adenotonsillectomy, Tonsillectomy, Nasal Steroids. Decision to treat was independent of this study. Changes in sleep and respiratory parameters over time were assessed. A decrease in obstructive apnea hypopnea index (OAHI) from Time 1 to Time 2 was seen in 63% and 100% of the Untreated and Treated groups, respectively. The predictive relationship between change in OAHI and standardized neurocognitive, academic, and behavioral scores over time was examined. Improvements in OAHI were predictive of improvements in Performance IQ, but not Verbal IQ or academic measures. Initial group differences in behavioral assessment on the Child Behavior Checklist did not change over time. Children with SDB at baseline continued to exhibit significantly poorer behavior than Controls at follow-up, irrespective of treatment. After four years, improvements in SDB are concomitant with improvements in some areas of neurocognition, but not academic ability or behavior in school-aged children.

Short- and long-term eating habit modification predicts weight change in overweight, postmenopausal women: results from the WOMAN study.

PubMed

Barone Gibbs, Bethany; Kinzel, Laura S; Pettee Gabriel, Kelley; Chang, Yue-Fang; Kuller, Lewis H

2012-09-01

Standard behavioral obesity treatment produces poor long-term results. Focusing on healthy eating behaviors rather than energy intake may be an alternative strategy. In addition, important behaviors might differ for short- vs long-term weight control. Our aim was to describe and compare associations between changes in eating behaviors and weight after 6 and 48 months. We performed secondary analysis of data collected during a randomized weight-loss intervention trial with 48-month follow-up. We studied 481 overweight and obese postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women on the Move through Activity and Nutrition (WOMAN) Study. We measured changes in weight from baseline to 6 and 48 months. Linear regression models were used to examine the associations between 6- and 48-month changes in eating habits assessed by the Conner Diet Habit Survey and changes in weight. Analyses were conducted in the combined study population and stratified by randomization group. At 6 months in the combined population, weight loss was independently associated with decreased desserts (P<0.001), restaurant eating (P=0.042), sugar-sweetened beverages (P=0.009), and fried foods (P<0.001), and increased fish consumption (P=0.003). Results were similar in intervention participants; only reduced desserts and fried foods associated with weight loss in controls. At 48 months in the combined population, weight loss was again associated with decreased desserts (P=0.003) and sugar-sweetened beverages (P=0.011), but also decreased meats/cheeses (P=0.024) and increased fruits/vegetables (P<0.001). Decreased meats/cheeses predicted weight loss in intervention participants; desserts, sugar-sweetened beverages, and fruits/vegetables were independently associated in controls. Changes in eating behaviors were associated with weight change, although important behaviors differed for short- and long-term weight change and by randomization group. Future studies should determine whether interventions targeting these behaviors could improve long-term obesity treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Testing a Model of Self-Management of Fluid Intake in Community-Residing Long-Term Indwelling Urinary Catheter Users

PubMed Central

Wilde, Mary H.; Crean, Hugh F.; McMahon, James M.; McDonald, Margaret V.; Tang, Wan; Brasch, Judith; Fairbanks, Eileen; Shah, Shivani; Zhang, Feng

2015-01-01

Background Urinary tract infection and blockage are serious and recurrent challenges for people with long-term indwelling catheters, and these catheter problems cause worry and anxiety when they disrupt normal daily activities. Objectives The goal was to determine whether urinary catheter-related self-management behaviors focusing on fluid intake would mediate fluid intake related self-efficacy toward decreasing catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) and/or catheter blockage. Method The sample involved data collected from 180 adult community-living, long-term indwelling urinary catheter users. The authors tested a model of fluid intake self-management (F-SMG) related to fluid intake self-efficacy (F-SE) for key outcomes of CAUTI and blockage. To account for the large number of zeros in both outcomes, a zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) structural equation model was tested. Results Structurally, F-SE was positively associated with F-SMG, suggesting that higher F-SE predicts more (higher) F-SMG; however, F-SMG was not associated with either the frequency of CAUTI’s or the presence or absence of CAUTI. F-SE was positively related to F-SMG and F-SMG predicted less frequency of catheter blockage, but neither F-SE nor F-SMG predicted the presence or absence of blockage. Discussion Further research is needed to better understand determinants of CAUTI in long-term catheter users and factors which might influence or prevent its occurrence. Increased confidence (self-efficacy) and self-management behaviors to promote fluid intake could be of value in long-term urinary catheter users to decrease catheter blockage. PMID:26938358

Immediate perception of a reward is distinct from the reward’s long-term salience

PubMed Central

McGinnis, John P; Jiang, Huoqing; Agha, Moutaz Ali; Sanchez, Consuelo Perez; Lange, Jeff; Yu, Zulin; Marion-Poll, Frederic; Si, Kausik

2016-01-01

Reward perception guides all aspects of animal behavior. However, the relationship between the perceived value of a reward, the latent value of a reward, and the behavioral response remains unclear. Here we report that, given a choice between two sweet and chemically similar sugars—L- and D-arabinose—Drosophila melanogaster prefers D- over L- arabinose, but forms long-term memories of L-arabinose more reliably. Behavioral assays indicate that L-arabinose-generated memories require sugar receptor Gr43a, and calcium imaging and electrophysiological recordings indicate that L- and D-arabinose differentially activate Gr43a-expressing neurons. We posit that the immediate valence of a reward is not always predictive of the long-term reinforcement value of that reward, and that a subset of sugar-sensing neurons may generate distinct representations of similar sugars, allowing for rapid assessment of the salient features of various sugar rewards and generation of reward-specific behaviors. However, how sensory neurons communicate information about L-arabinose quality and concentration—features relevant for long-term memory—remains unknown. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.22283.001 PMID:28005005

Flexural creep behaviour of jute polypropylene composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandekar, Harichandra; Chaudhari, Vikas

2016-09-01

Present study is about the flexural creep behaviour of jute fabric reinforced polypropylene (Jute-PP) composites. The PP sheet and alkali treated jute fabric is stacked alternately and hot pressed in compression molding machine to get Jute-PP composite laminate. The flexural creep study is carried out on dynamic mechanical analyzer. The creep behaviour of the composite is modeled using four-parameter Burgers model. Short-term accelerated creep testing is conducted which is later used to predict long term creep behaviour. The feasibility of the construction of a master curve using the time-temperature superposition (TTS) principle to predict long term creep behavior of unreinforced PP and Jute-PP composite is investigated.

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Ex-Vessel Prediction: Core Concrete Interaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robb, Kevin R; Farmer, Mitchell; Francis, Matthew W

Lower head failure and corium concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, an analysis was carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 were used as input.more » MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. The results of the MELTSPREAD analysis are reported in a companion paper. This information was used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH.« less

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 ex-vessel prediction: Core melt spreading

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farmer, M. T.; Robb, K. R.; Francis, M. W.

Lower head failure and corium-concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, an analysis has been carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 were used as input.more » MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially-dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. Lastly, this information was then used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH that is reported in a companion paper.« less

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 ex-vessel prediction: Core melt spreading

DOE PAGES

Farmer, M. T.; Robb, K. R.; Francis, M. W.

2016-10-31

Lower head failure and corium-concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, an analysis has been carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 were used as input.more » MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially-dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. Lastly, this information was then used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH that is reported in a companion paper.« less

Extinction of alcohol seeking is enhanced by compound extinction and the noradrenaline reuptake inhibitor atomoxetine.

PubMed

Leung, Hiu T; Corbit, Laura H

2017-01-01

Alcohol-related stimuli can trigger relapse of alcohol-seeking behaviors even after extended periods of abstinence. Extinction of such stimuli provides a means for reducing their impact on relapse. However, the expression of extinction can be disrupted by exposure to the previous reinforcer as well as the simple passage of time. We investigated whether augmentation of prediction error or of noradrenaline neurotransmission by the reuptake inhibitor atomoxetine would enhance long-term extinction of alcohol-seeking behavior. Rats received Pavlovian conditioning of multiple stimuli signaling the delivery of an alcohol reward before individual extinction was given to each of these stimuli. Further extinction was then given to a target stimulus presented in compound with another alcohol-predictive stimulus intended to augment prediction error (Experiment 1) or after a systemic injection of atomoxetine (1.0 mg/kg; Experiment 2). Experiment 3 examined whether the compound stimulus effect relied on noradrenergic activity by testing the effects of the β-adrenergic antagonist propranolol, given prior to compound stimulus trials. Long-term retention of extinction learning was assessed a week later. Compound stimulus presentations enhanced long-term extinction as the stimulus extinguished in compound elicited less responding than a stimulus receiving equal extinction alone when tested a week later. This effect was mimicked by atomoxetine and blocked by propranolol given during extinction training. Thus, extinction of alcohol-seeking behavior can be improved by extinguishing multiple alcohol-predictive stimuli or enhancing noradrenaline neurotransmission during extinction training. Both behavioral and neurobiological processes could be exploited to enhance the outcome of extinction-based treatments for alcohol use disorders. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Emergent Constraints for Cloud Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity

DOE PAGES

Klein, Stephen A.; Hall, Alex

2015-10-26

Emergent constraints are physically explainable empirical relationships between characteristics of the current climate and long-term climate prediction that emerge in collections of climate model simulations. With the prospect of constraining long-term climate prediction, scientists have recently uncovered several emergent constraints related to long-term cloud feedbacks. We review these proposed emergent constraints, many of which involve the behavior of low-level clouds, and discuss criteria to assess their credibility. With further research, some of the cases we review may eventually become confirmed emergent constraints, provided they are accompanied by credible physical explanations. Because confirmed emergent constraints identify a source of model errormore » that projects onto climate predictions, they deserve extra attention from those developing climate models and climate observations. While a systematic bias cannot be ruled out, it is noteworthy that the promising emergent constraints suggest larger cloud feedback and hence climate sensitivity.« less

Cognitive-behavioral therapy for obsessive–compulsive disorder: access to treatment, prediction of long-term outcome with neuroimaging

PubMed Central

O’Neill, Joseph; Feusner, Jamie D

2015-01-01

This article reviews issues related to a major challenge to the field for obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD): improving access to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Patient-related barriers to access include the stigma of OCD and reluctance to take on the demands of CBT. Patient-external factors include the shortage of trained CBT therapists and the high costs of CBT. The second half of the review focuses on one partial, yet plausible aid to improve access – prediction of long-term response to CBT, particularly using neuroimaging methods. Recent pilot data are presented revealing a potential for pretreatment resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopy of the brain to forecast OCD symptom severity up to 1 year after completing CBT. PMID:26229514

Predicting Prognosis for the Conduct-Problem Boy: Can Family History Help?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odgers, Candice L.; Milne, Barry J.; Caspi, Avshalom; Crump, Raewyn; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E.

2007-01-01

Objective: Many children with conduct disorder develop life-course persistent antisocial behavior; however, other children exhibit childhood-limited or adolescence-limited conduct disorder symptoms and escape poor adult outcomes. Prospective prediction of long-term prognosis in pediatric and adolescent clinical settings is difficult. Improved…

Prevention of ADHD Related Problems: A Universal Preschool Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christiansen, Hanna; Hirsch, Oliver; König, Anika; Steinmayr, Ricarda; Roehrle, Bernd

2015-01-01

Purpose: Early onset of behavioral disorders is predictive of long term adverse outcomes. There are some indicated and selective early prevention programs for attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), one of the most common behavioral disorders in childhood and adolescence. The purpose of this paper is to present a universal preschool…

Density-dependent microbial turnover improves soil carbon model predictions of long-term litter manipulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgiou, Katerina; Abramoff, Rose; Harte, John; Riley, William; Torn, Margaret

2017-04-01

Climatic, atmospheric, and land-use changes all have the potential to alter soil microbial activity via abiotic effects on soil or mediated by changes in plant inputs. Recently, many promising microbial models of soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition have been proposed to advance understanding and prediction of climate and carbon (C) feedbacks. Most of these models, however, exhibit unrealistic oscillatory behavior and SOC insensitivity to long-term changes in C inputs. Here we diagnose the sources of instability in four models that span the range of complexity of these recent microbial models, by sequentially adding complexity to a simple model to include microbial physiology, a mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. We propose a formulation that introduces density-dependence of microbial turnover, which acts to limit population sizes and reduce oscillations. We compare these models to results from 24 long-term C-input field manipulations, including the Detritus Input and Removal Treatment (DIRT) experiments, to show that there are clear metrics that can be used to distinguish and validate the inherent dynamics of each model structure. We find that widely used first-order models and microbial models without density-dependence cannot readily capture the range of long-term responses observed across the DIRT experiments as a direct consequence of their model structures. The proposed formulation improves predictions of long-term C-input changes, and implies greater SOC storage associated with CO2-fertilization-driven increases in C inputs over the coming century compared to common microbial models. Finally, we discuss our findings in the context of improving microbial model behavior for inclusion in Earth System Models.

Protective resources and long-term recovery from alcohol use disorders.

PubMed

Moos, Rudolf H; Moos, Bernice S

2007-01-05

This study examined indices of personal and social resources drawn from social learning, behavioral economics, and social control theories as predictors of medium- and long-term alcohol use disorder outcomes. Individuals (N = 461) who initiated help-seeking for alcohol-related problems were surveyed at baseline and 1, 3, 8, and 16 years later. At baseline and each follow-up, participants provided information about their personal and social resources and alcohol-related and psychosocial functioning. In general, protective resources associated with social learning (self-efficacy and approach coping), behavioral economics (health and financial resources and resources associated with Alcoholics Anonymous), and social control theory (bonding with family members, friends, and coworkers) predicted better alcohol-related and psychosocial outcomes. A summary index of protective resources associated with all three theories significantly predicted remission. Protective resources strengthened the positive influence of treatment on short-term remission and partially mediated the association between treatment and remission. Application of social learning, behavior economic, and social control theories may help to identify predictors of remission and thus to allocate treatment more efficiently.

Stirling engine - Approach for long-term durability assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tong, Michael T.; Bartolotta, Paul A.; Halford, Gary R.; Freed, Alan D.

1992-01-01

The approach employed by NASA Lewis for the long-term durability assessment of the Stirling engine hot-section components is summarized. The approach consists of: preliminary structural assessment; development of a viscoplastic constitutive model to accurately determine material behavior under high-temperature thermomechanical loads; an experimental program to characterize material constants for the viscoplastic constitutive model; finite-element thermal analysis and structural analysis using a viscoplastic constitutive model to obtain stress/strain/temperature at the critical location of the hot-section components for life assessment; and development of a life prediction model applicable for long-term durability assessment at high temperatures. The approach should aid in the provision of long-term structural durability and reliability of Stirling engines.

BEHAVIORAL ASSESSMENTS OF LONG EVANS RATS FOLLOWING A 13-WEEK SUBCHRONIC TOLUENE EXPOSURE.

EPA Science Inventory

The current study sought to develop an animal model of the neurotoxicity of long-term exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) which may be used to predict the effects of chronic exposure to VOCs on public health. The effects of Subchronic inhalation exposure to toluene (0,...

Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models: 2. Laboratory earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Beeler, Nicholas M.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Lockner, David A.; Savage, Heather M.

2012-02-01

The behavior of individual stick-slip events observed in three different laboratory experimental configurations is better explained by a "memoryless" earthquake model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. We make similar findings in the companion manuscript for the behavior of natural repeating earthquakes. Taken together, these results allow us to conclude that the predictions of a characteristic earthquake model that assumes either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval should be preferred to the predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models for all earthquakes. Given that the fixed slip and recurrence models are the preferred models for all of the experiments we examine, we infer that in an event-to-event sense the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models does not explain earthquake behavior. This does not indicate that the elastic rebound model should be rejected in a long-term-sense, but it should be rejected for short-term predictions. The time- and slip-predictable models likely offer worse predictions of earthquake behavior because they rely on assumptions that are too simple to explain the behavior of earthquakes. Specifically, the time-predictable model assumes a constant failure threshold and the slip-predictable model assumes that there is a constant minimum stress. There is experimental and field evidence that these assumptions are not valid for all earthquakes.

The behavioral economics of violence.

PubMed

Rachlin, Howard

2004-12-01

From the viewpoint of teleological behaviorism the first question to ask in attempting to understand any behavior, including violent behavior, is: What are its contingencies of reward and punishment? Or, to put the question in economic terms: What are the short-term and long-term costs and benefits that such behavior entails? Let us therefore consider the costs and benefits of youth violence. Among the short-term costs of violent behavior are the physical effort of the act, the possibility of immediate physical retaliation, immediate social disapproval, and the opportunity cost of other social acts that the violent behavior takes the place of (you can't be affectionate and violent at the same time, for instance). Among the immediate benefits of violent behavior are the intrinsic satisfaction of the violent act itself and any extrinsic benefit; if A violently appropriates B's new sneakers then obtaining the sneakers reinforces A's violence. These immediate benefits may well outweigh the costs in many contexts. Among the long-term costs of violent behavior are delayed retaliation, possible social disapproval and loss of social support, rejection from a social group, job loss, and health risks associated with a violent lifestyle. Among the long-term benefits are long-term intimidation of others (your neighbor is less likely to build a fence on your property if you have a reputation for violence), and a possibly exciting lifestyle. These long-term benefits may well be outweighed by the long-term costs. Opposition of long-term net costs to short-term net benefits, where it exists, creates a personal self-control trap: Overall satisfaction may decrease monotonically with rate of the target behavior but, regardless of its rate, the immediate satisfaction of doing it is always higher than that of not doing it. In the case of violent behavior, this trap is exacerbated by the fact that as a person's violence increases, net immediate reinforcement also increases (due to membership in violence-reinforcing subgroups). This contingency fits the "primrose path" addiction model of Prelec and Herrnstein. Violence is thus a paradigm case of behavioral addiction. I consider three ways of controlling such addictive behavior: by punishment, by extinction, and by substitution. The problem with punishment in the case of violence is that physical punishment tends to increase violent behavior while incarceration drives the punished person into the very social subgroup (the prison culture) where violence is maximally reinforced. The problem with extinction is that the immediate benefits of violent behavior are largely intrinsic and some costs (immediate retaliation by unidentified others) are difficult to control. The best way to control violent behavior, as well as other addictive behaviors, is by decreasing the price of economic substitutes. There is much evidence that addictions, such as to cocaine, heroin, alcohol, and tobacco, may be reduced by decreasing the price of social support. The same is predicted for violent behavior--either by providing social support directly or by training in social skills. In addition, in considering control of violent behavior, we need to examine the immediate benefits and long-term costs to society of having violent individuals and violence-reinforcing subcultures among us. And we need to act to reduce our own dependence on those benefits.

Psychosocial Outcomes in Long-Term Cochlear Implant Users.

PubMed

Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G; Pisoni, David B

The objectives of this study were to investigate psychosocial outcomes in a sample of prelingually deaf, early-implanted children, adolescents, and young adults who are long-term cochlear implant (CI) users and to examine the extent to which language and executive functioning predict psychosocial outcomes. Psychosocial outcomes were measured using two well-validated, parent-completed checklists: the Behavior Assessment System for Children and the Conduct Hyperactive Attention Problem Oppositional Symptom. Neurocognitive skills were measured using gold standard, performance-based assessments of language and executive functioning. CI users were at greater risk for clinically significant deficits in areas related to attention, oppositional behavior, hyperactivity-impulsivity, and social-adaptive skills compared with their normal-hearing peers, although the majority of CI users scored within average ranges relative to Behavior Assessment System for Children norms. Regression analyses revealed that language, visual-spatial working memory, and inhibition-concentration skills predicted psychosocial outcomes. Findings suggest that underlying delays and deficits in language and executive functioning may place some CI users at a risk for difficulties in psychosocial adjustment.

Intertemporal bargaining predicts moral behavior, even in anonymous, one-shot economic games.

PubMed

Ainslie, George

2013-02-01

To the extent that acting fairly is in an individual’s long-term interest, short-term impulses to cheat present a self-control problem. The only effective solution is to interpret the problem as a variant of repeated prisoner’s dilemma, with each choice as a test case predicting future choices. Moral choice appears to be the product of a contract because it comes from self-enforcing intertemporal cooperation.

Exploring Dynamical Assessments of Affect, Behavior, and Cognition and Math State Test Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

San Pedro, Maria Ofelia Z.; Snow, Erica L.; Baker, Ryan S.; McNamara, Danielle S.; Heffernan, Neil T.

2015-01-01

There is increasing evidence that fine-grained aspects of student performance and interaction within educational software are predictive of long-term learning. Machine learning models have been used to provide assessments of affect, behavior, and cognition based on analyses of system log data, estimating the probability of a student's particular…

Environment assisted degradation mechanisms in advanced light metals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gangloff, Richard P.; Stoner, Glenn E.; Swanson, Robert E.

1988-01-01

The general goals of the research program are to characterize alloy behavior quantitatively and to develop predictive mechanisms for environmental failure modes. Successes in this regard will provide the basis for metallurgical optimization of alloy performance, for chemical control of aggressive environments, and for engineering life prediction with damage tolerance and long term reliability.

Long-term outcome of social skills intervention based on interactive LEGO play.

PubMed

Legoff, Daniel B; Sherman, Michael

2006-07-01

LEGO building materials have been adapted as a therapeutic modality for increasing motivation to participate in social skills intervention, and providing a medium through which children with social and communication handicaps can effectively interact. A 3 year retrospective study of long-term outcome for autistic spectrum children participating in LEGO therapy (N = 60) compared Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scale socialization domain (VABS-SD) and Gilliam Autism Rating Scale social interaction subscale (GARS-SI) scores preand post-treatment with a matched comparison sample (N = 57) who received comparable non-LEGO therapy. Although both groups made significant gains on the two outcome measures, LEGO participants improved significantly more than the comparison subjects. Diagnosis and pre-treatment full-scale IQ scores did not predict outcome scores; however, Vineland adaptive behavior composite, Vineland communication domain, and verbal IQ all predicted outcome on the VABS-SD, especially for the LEGO therapy group. Results are discussed in terms of implications for methods of social skills intervention for autistic spectrum disorders.

Creep-rupture reliability analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peralta-Duran, A.; Wirsching, P. H.

1984-01-01

A probabilistic approach to the correlation and extrapolation of creep-rupture data is presented. Time temperature parameters (TTP) are used to correlate the data, and an analytical expression for the master curve is developed. The expression provides a simple model for the statistical distribution of strength and fits neatly into a probabilistic design format. The analysis focuses on the Larson-Miller and on the Manson-Haferd parameters, but it can be applied to any of the TTP's. A method is developed for evaluating material dependent constants for TTP's. It is shown that optimized constants can provide a significant improvement in the correlation of the data, thereby reducing modelling error. Attempts were made to quantify the performance of the proposed method in predicting long term behavior. Uncertainty in predicting long term behavior from short term tests was derived for several sets of data. Examples are presented which illustrate the theory and demonstrate the application of state of the art reliability methods to the design of components under creep.

Understanding Eating Behaviors through Parental Communication and the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction.

PubMed

Scheinfeld, Emily; Shim, Minsun

2017-05-01

Emerging adulthood (EA) is an important yet overlooked period for developing long-term health behaviors. During these years, emerging adults adopt health behaviors that persist throughout life. This study applies the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction (IMBP) to examine the role of childhood parental communication in predicting engagement in healthful eating during EA. Participants included 239 college students, ages 18 to 25, from a large university in the southern United States. Participants were recruited and data collection occurred spring 2012. Participants responded to measures to assess perceived parental communication, eating behaviors, attitudes, subjective norms, and behavioral control over healthful eating. SEM and mediation analyses were used to address the hypotheses posited. Data demonstrated that perceived parent-child communication - specifically, its quality and target-specific content - significantly predicted emerging adults' eating behaviors, mediated through subjective norm and perceived behavioral control. This study sets the stage for further exploration and understanding of different ways parental communication influences emerging adults' healthy behavior enactment.

Prospective Predictors of Suicidal Behavior in BPD at 6 Year Follow-up

PubMed Central

Soloff, Paul H.; Chiappetta, Laurel

2012-01-01

Objective Recurrent suicidal behavior is a defining characteristic of BPD. Although most patients achieve remission of suicidal behaviors over time, 3% to 10% die by suicide, raising the question of whether there is a high risk suicidal subtype in BPD. We are conducting the first longitudinal study of suicidal behavior in BPD to identify prospective predictors of suicide attempts, and characterize BPD patients at highest risk for suicide completion. Method Demographic, diagnostic, clinical and psychosocial risk factors assessed at baseline were examined for predictive association with medically significant suicide attempts using Cox proportional hazards models. Prospective predictors were defined for subjects completing 6 or more years in the study and compared to earlier intervals. Results Among 90 subjects, 25 (27.8%) made at least one suicide attempt in the interval, most occurring in the first two years. Risk of attempt was increased by: a.) low socioeconomic status, b.) poor psychosocial adjustment, c.) a family history of suicide d.) prior psychiatric hospitalization; e.) absence of any outpatient treatment prior to the attempt. Higher global functioning at baseline decreased risk. Conclusion Risk factors predictive of suicide attempts change over time. Acute stressors such as MDD were predictive only in the short term (12 mos.), while poor psychosocial functioning had persistent and long term effects on suicide risk. Half of BPD patients have poor psychosocial outcomes despite symptomatic improvement. A social and vocational rehabilitation model of treatment is needed to decrease suicide risk and optimize long term outcomes in BPD. PMID:22549208

Long-Term Impact of Parental Well-Being on Adult Outcomes and Dementia Status in Individuals with Down Syndrome

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Esbensen, Anna J.; Mailick, Marsha R.; Silverman, Wayne

2013-01-01

Parental characteristics were significant predictors of health, functional abilities, and behavior problems in adults with Down syndrome ("n" ?=? 75) over a 22-year time span, controlling for initial levels and earlier changes in these outcomes. Lower levels of behavior problems were predicted by improvements in maternal depressive…

Mate attraction, retention and expulsion.

PubMed

Miner, Emily J; Shackelford, Todd K

2010-02-01

Sexual selection theory and parental investment theory have guided much of the evolutionary psychological research on human mating. Based on these theories, researchers have predicted and found sex differences in mating preferences and behaviors. Men generally prefer that their long-term partners are youthful and physically attractive. Women generally prefer that their long-term partners have existing resources or clear potential for securing resources and display a willingness to invest those resources in children the relationship might produce. Both men and women, however, desire long-term partners who are kind and intelligent. Once a partner is obtained, men and women act in sex-specific ways to ensure the continuation and exclusivity of the relationship. Men, in particular, engage in behaviors designed to prevent, correct, and anticipate their partner's sexual infidelity. Relationships dissolve for evolutionarily-relevant reasons: infidelity, childlessness, and infertility. The discussion addresses directions for future research.

Sleep Disturbance, Inflammation and Depression Risk in Cancer Survivors

PubMed Central

Irwin, Michael R.; Olmstead, Richard E.; Ganz, Patricia A.; Haque, Reina

2012-01-01

Over two-thirds of the 11.4 million cancer survivors in the United States can expect long-term survival, with many others living with cancer as a chronic disease controlled by ongoing therapy. However, behavioral co-morbidities often arise during treatment and persist long-term to complicate survival and reduce quality of life. In this review, the inter-relationships between cancer, depression, and sleep disturbance are described, with a focus on the role of sleep disturbance as a risk factor for depression. Increasing evidence also links alterations in inflammatory biology dynamics to these long-term effects of cancer diagnosis and treatment, and the hypothesis that sleep disturbance drives inflammation, which together contribute to depression, is discussed. Better understanding of the associations between inflammation and behavioral co-morbidities has the potential to refine prediction of risk and development of strategies for the prevention and treatment of sleep disturbance and depression in cancer survivors. PMID:22634367

Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 1: repeating earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki

2012-01-01

The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.

Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.

PubMed

Kliem, Sören; Weusthoff, Sarah; Hahlweg, Kurt; Baucom, Katherine J W; Baucom, Brian R

2015-12-01

Identifying risk factors for divorce or separation is an important step in the prevention of negative individual outcomes and societal costs associated with relationship dissolution. Programs that aim to prevent relationship distress and dissolution typically focus on changing processes that occur during couple conflict, although the predictive ability of conflict-specific variables has not been examined in the context of other factors related to relationship dissolution. The authors examine whether emotional responding and communication during couple conflict predict relationship dissolution after controlling for overall relationship quality and individual well-being. Using nonparametric conditional survival trees, the study at hand simultaneously examined the predictive abilities of physiological (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, cortisol) and behavioral (fundamental frequency; f0) indices of emotional responding, as well as observationally coded positive and negative communication behavior, on long-term relationship stability after controlling for relationship satisfaction and symptoms of depression. One hundred thirty-six spouses were assessed after participating in a randomized clinical trial of a relationship distress prevention program as well as 11 years thereafter; 32.5% of the couples' relationships had dissolved by follow up. For men, the only significant predictor of relationship dissolution was cortisol change score (p = .012). For women, only f0 range was a significant predictor of relationship dissolution (p = .034). These findings highlight the importance of emotional responding during couple conflict for long-term relationship stability. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Neuroimaging in Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury: Current and Future Predictors of Functional Outcome

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suskauer, Stacy J.; Huisman, Thierry A. G. M.

2009-01-01

Although neuroimaging has long played a role in the acute management of pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI), until recently, its use as a tool for understanding and predicting long-term brain-behavior relationships after TBI has been limited by the relatively poor sensitivity of routine clinical imaging for detecting diffuse axonal injury…

Disease Management: The Need for a Focus on Broader Self-Management Abilities and Quality of Life

PubMed Central

Nieboer, Anna Petra

2015-01-01

Abstract The study objective was to investigate long-term effects of disease management programs (DMPs) on (1) health behaviors (smoking, physical exercise); (2) self-management abilities (self-efficacy, investment behavior, initiative taking); and (3) physical and mental quality of life among chronically ill patients. The study also examined whether (changes in) health behaviors and self-management abilities predicted quality of life. Questionnaires were sent to all 5076 patients participating in 18 Dutch DMPs in 2010 (T0; 2676 [53%] respondents). Two years later (T1), questionnaires were sent to 4350 patients still participating in DMPs (1722 [40%] respondents). Structured interviews were held with the 18 DMP project leaders. DMP implementation improved patients' health behavior and physical quality of life, but mental quality of life and self-management abilities declined over time. Changes in patients' investment behavior predicted physical quality of life at T1 (P<.001); physical activity, investment behavior (both P<.05), and self-efficacy (P<.01) at T0, and changes in self-efficacy and investment behavior (both P<.001) predicted patients' mental quality of life at T1. The long-term benefits of these DMPs include successful improvement of chronically ill patients' health behaviors and physical quality of life. However, these programs were not able to improve or maintain broader self-management abilities or mental quality of life, highlighting the need to focus on these abilities and overall quality of life. As coproducers of care, patients should be stimulated and enabled to manage their health and quality of life. (Population Health Management 2015;18:246–255) PMID:25607246

Disease Management: The Need for a Focus on Broader Self-Management Abilities and Quality of Life.

PubMed

Cramm, Jane Murray; Nieboer, Anna Petra

2015-08-01

The study objective was to investigate long-term effects of disease management programs (DMPs) on (1) health behaviors (smoking, physical exercise); (2) self-management abilities (self-efficacy, investment behavior, initiative taking); and (3) physical and mental quality of life among chronically ill patients. The study also examined whether (changes in) health behaviors and self-management abilities predicted quality of life. Questionnaires were sent to all 5076 patients participating in 18 Dutch DMPs in 2010 (T0; 2676 [53%] respondents). Two years later (T1), questionnaires were sent to 4350 patients still participating in DMPs (1722 [40%] respondents). Structured interviews were held with the 18 DMP project leaders. DMP implementation improved patients' health behavior and physical quality of life, but mental quality of life and self-management abilities declined over time. Changes in patients' investment behavior predicted physical quality of life at T1 (P<.001); physical activity, investment behavior (both P<.05), and self-efficacy (P<.01) at T0, and changes in self-efficacy and investment behavior (both P<.001) predicted patients' mental quality of life at T1. The long-term benefits of these DMPs include successful improvement of chronically ill patients' health behaviors and physical quality of life. However, these programs were not able to improve or maintain broader self-management abilities or mental quality of life, highlighting the need to focus on these abilities and overall quality of life. As coproducers of care, patients should be stimulated and enabled to manage their health and quality of life.

Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects of nonmetallic materials, second phase

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

Changes in the functional properties of a number of nonmetallic materials were evaluated experimentally as a function of simulated space environments and to use such data to develop models for accelerated test methods useful for predicting such behavioral changes. The effects of changed particle irradiations on candidate space materials are evaluated.

Evolution with Reinforcement Learning in Negotiation

PubMed Central

Zou, Yi; Zhan, Wenjie; Shao, Yuan

2014-01-01

Adaptive behavior depends less on the details of the negotiation process and makes more robust predictions in the long term as compared to in the short term. However, the extant literature on population dynamics for behavior adjustment has only examined the current situation. To offset this limitation, we propose a synergy of evolutionary algorithm and reinforcement learning to investigate long-term collective performance and strategy evolution. The model adopts reinforcement learning with a tradeoff between historical and current information to make decisions when the strategies of agents evolve through repeated interactions. The results demonstrate that the strategies in populations converge to stable states, and the agents gradually form steady negotiation habits. Agents that adopt reinforcement learning perform better in payoff, fairness, and stableness than their counterparts using classic evolutionary algorithm. PMID:25048108

Evolution with reinforcement learning in negotiation.

PubMed

Zou, Yi; Zhan, Wenjie; Shao, Yuan

2014-01-01

Adaptive behavior depends less on the details of the negotiation process and makes more robust predictions in the long term as compared to in the short term. However, the extant literature on population dynamics for behavior adjustment has only examined the current situation. To offset this limitation, we propose a synergy of evolutionary algorithm and reinforcement learning to investigate long-term collective performance and strategy evolution. The model adopts reinforcement learning with a tradeoff between historical and current information to make decisions when the strategies of agents evolve through repeated interactions. The results demonstrate that the strategies in populations converge to stable states, and the agents gradually form steady negotiation habits. Agents that adopt reinforcement learning perform better in payoff, fairness, and stableness than their counterparts using classic evolutionary algorithm.

Use long short-term memory to enhance Internet of Things for combined sewer overflow monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Duo; Lindholm, Geir; Ratnaweera, Harsha

2018-01-01

Combined sewer overflow causes severe water pollution, urban flooding and reduced treatment plant efficiency. Understanding the behavior of CSO structures is vital for urban flooding prevention and overflow control. Neural networks have been extensively applied in water resource related fields. In this study, we collect data from an Internet of Things monitoring CSO structure and build different neural network models for simulating and predicting the water level of the CSO structure. Through a comparison of four different neural networks, namely multilayer perceptron (MLP), wavelet neural network (WNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU), the LSTM and GRU present superior capabilities for multi-step-ahead time series prediction. Furthermore, GRU achieves prediction performances similar to LSTM with a quicker learning curve.

A prospective study of short- and long-term outcomes after traumatic brain injury in children: behavior and achievement.

PubMed

Taylor, H Gerry; Yeates, Keith Owen; Wade, Shari L; Drotar, Dennis; Stancin, Terry; Minich, Nori

2002-01-01

Longitudinal behavior and achievement outcomes of traumatic brain injury (TBI) were investigated in 53 children with severe TBI, 56 children with moderate TBI, and 80 children with orthopedic injuries not involving brain insult. Measures of preinjury child and family status and of postinjury achievement skills were administered shortly after injury. Assessments were repeated 3 times across a mean follow-up interval of 4 years. Results from mixed model analysis revealed persisting sequelae of TBI. Recovery of math skills was observed in the severe TBI group but only for children from less stressed families. Social disadvantage in children with TBI predicted more adverse behavioral sequelae and less favorable changes in some outcome measures. The findings suggest that pediatric TBI has long-term effects on behavior and achievement but that postinjury progress is influenced by the family environment.

A longitudinal study of the association between violent video game play and aggression among adolescents.

PubMed

Willoughby, Teena; Adachi, Paul J C; Good, Marie

2012-07-01

In the past 2 decades, correlational and experimental studies have found a positive association between violent video game play and aggression. There is less evidence, however, to support a long-term relation between these behaviors. This study examined sustained violent video game play and adolescent aggressive behavior across the high school years and directly assessed the socialization (violent video game play predicts aggression over time) versus selection hypotheses (aggression predicts violent video game play over time). Adolescents (N = 1,492, 50.8% female) were surveyed annually from Grade 9 to Grade 12 about their video game play and aggressive behaviors. Nonviolent video game play, frequency of overall video game play, and a comprehensive set of potential 3rd variables were included as covariates in each analysis. Sustained violent video game play was significantly related to steeper increases in adolescents' trajectory of aggressive behavior over time. Moreover, greater violent video game play predicted higher levels of aggression over time, after controlling for previous levels of aggression, supporting the socialization hypothesis. In contrast, no support was found for the selection hypothesis. Nonviolent video game play also did not predict higher levels of aggressive behavior over time. Our findings, and the fact that many adolescents play video games for several hours every day, underscore the need for a greater understanding of the long-term relation between violent video games and aggression, as well as the specific game characteristics (e.g., violent content, competition, pace of action) that may be responsible for this association.

Lithium-manganese dioxide cells for implantable defibrillator devices-Discharge voltage models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Root, Michael J.

The discharge potential behavior of lithium-manganese dioxide cells designed for implantable cardiac defibrillators was characterized as a function of extent of cell depletion for tests designed to discharge the cells for times between 1 and 7 years. The discharge potential curves may be separated into two segments from 0 ≤ x ≤ ∼0.51 and ∼0.51 ≤ x ≤ 1.00, where x is the dimensionless extent of discharge referenced to the rated cell capacity. The discharge potentials conform to Tafel kinetics in each segment. This behavior allows the discharge potential curves to be predicted for an arbitrary discharge load and long term discharge performance may be predicted from short term test results. The discharge potentials may subsequently be modeled by fitting the discharge curves to empirical functions like polynomials and Padé approximants. A function based on the Nernst equation that includes a term accounting for nonideal interactions between lithium ions and the cathode host material, such as the Redlich-Kister relationship, also may be used to predict discharge behavior.

Influence of family environment on long-term psychosocial functioning of adolescents with juvenile fibromyalgia.

PubMed

Sil, Soumitri; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Ting, Tracy V; Peugh, James; Noll, Jennie; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

2013-06-01

Little is known about the impact of family environment on the long-term adjustment of patients with juvenile-onset fibromyalgia (JFM). Our objective was to evaluate whether family environment in early adolescence predicted later physical functioning and depressive symptoms of adolescents with JFM as they transitioned to early adulthood in the context of a controlled long-term followup study. Participants consisted of 39 youth (mean age 18.7 years) with JFM and 38 healthy matched controls who completed web-based surveys about their health status (Short Form 36 health survey) and depressive symptoms (Beck Depression Inventory II) ~4 years after a home-based, in-person assessment of child and family functioning. During the initial assessment, parents of the participants (94% mothers) completed the Family Environment Scale and adolescents (mean age 14.8 years) completed self-report questionnaires about pain (visual analog scale) and depressive symptoms (Children's Depression Inventory). The results indicated that family environment during early adolescence significantly predicted greater depressive symptoms in early adulthood for both the JFM group and the healthy controls. In particular, a controlling family environment (use of rules to control the family and allowing little independence) during early adolescence was the driving factor in predicting poorer long-term emotional functioning for patients with JFM. Family environment did not significantly predict longer-term physical impairment for either group. Adolescents with JFM from controlling family environments are at an increased risk for poorer emotional functioning in early adulthood. Behavioral and family interventions should foster independent coping among adolescents with JFM and greater parenting flexibility to enhance successful long-term coping. Copyright © 2013 by the American College of Rheumatology.

Prediction of exercise in patients across various stages of bariatric surgery: a comparison of the merits of the theory of reasoned action versus the theory of planned behavior.

PubMed

Hunt, Hillary R; Gross, Alan M

2009-11-01

Obesity is a world-wide health concern approaching epidemic proportions. Successful long-term treatment involves a combination of bariatric surgery, diet, and exercise. Social cognitive models, such as the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), are among the most commonly tested theories utilized in the prediction of exercise. As exercise is not a completely volitional behavior, it is hypothesized that the TPB is a superior theoretical model for the prediction of exercise intentions and behavior. This study tested validity of the TPB in a sample of bariatric patients and further validated its improvement over the TRA in predicting exercise adherence at different operative stages. Results generally confirmed research hypotheses. Superiority of the TPB model was validated in this sample of bariatric patients, and Perceived Behavioral Control emerged as the single-best predictor of both exercise intentions and self-reported behavior. Finally, results suggested that both subjective norms and attitudes toward exercise played a larger role in the prediction of intention and behavior than previously reported.

Comparison of Neural Network and Linear Regression Models in Statistically Predicting Mental and Physical Health Status of Breast Cancer Survivors

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-15

Long-term effects on cancer survivors’ quality of life of physical training versus physical training combined with cognitive-behavioral therapy ...COMPARISON OF NEURAL NETWORK AND LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS IN STATISTICALLY PREDICTING MENTAL AND PHYSICAL HEALTH STATUS OF BREAST...34Comparison of Neural Network and Linear Regression Models in Statistically Predicting Mental and Physical Health Status of Breast Cancer Survivors

Predictive aging results in radiation environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillen, Kenneth T.; Clough, Roger L.

1993-06-01

We have previously derived a time-temperature-dose rate superposition methodology, which, when applicable, can be used to predict polymer degradation versus dose rate, temperature and exposure time. This methodology results in predictive capabilities at the low dose rates and long time periods appropriate, for instance, to ambient nuclear power plant environments. The methodology was successfully applied to several polymeric cable materials and then verified for two of the materials by comparisons of the model predictions with 12 year, low-dose-rate aging data on these materials from a nuclear environment. In this paper, we provide a more detailed discussion of the methodology and apply it to data obtained on a number of additional nuclear power plant cable insulation (a hypalon, a silicone rubber and two ethylene-tetrafluoroethylenes) and jacket (a hypalon) materials. We then show that the predicted, low-dose-rate results for our materials are in excellent agreement with long-term (7-9 year) low-dose-rate results recently obtained for the same material types actually aged under bnuclear power plant conditions. Based on a combination of the modelling and long-term results, we find indications of reasonably similar degradation responses among several different commercial formulations for each of the following "generic" materials: hypalon, ethylene-tetrafluoroethylene, silicone rubber and PVC. If such "generic" behavior can be further substantiated through modelling and long-term results on additional formulations, predictions of cable life for other commercial materials of the same generic types would be greatly facilitated.

A cross-sectional assessment of the long term effects of brief strategic family therapy for adolescent substance use.

PubMed

Horigian, Viviana E; Feaster, Daniel J; Robbins, Michael S; Brincks, Ahnalee M; Ucha, Jessica; Rohrbaugh, Michael J; Shoham, Varda; Bachrach, Ken; Miller, Michael; Burlew, A Kathleen; Hodgkins, Candace C; Carrion, Ibis S; Silverstein, Meredith; Werstlein, Robert; Szapocznik, José

2015-10-01

Young adult drug use and law-breaking behaviors often have roots in adolescence. These behaviors are predicted by early drug use, parental substance use disorders, and disrupted and conflict-ridden family environments. To examine long-term outcomes of Brief Strategic Family Therapy (BSFT) compared to treatment as usual (TAU) in the rates of drug use, number of arrests and externalizing behaviors in young adults who were randomized into treatment conditions as adolescents. 261 of 480 adolescents who had been randomized to BSFT or TAU in the BSFT effectiveness study were assessed at a single time, 3-7 years post randomization. Assessments of drug use, externalizing behaviors, arrests and incarcerations were conducted using Timeline Follow Back, Adult Self Report, and self-report, respectively. Drug use, arrests and incarcerations were examined using negative binomial models and externalizing behaviors were examined using linear regression. When compared with TAU, BSFT youth reported lower incidence of lifetime (IRR = 0.68, 95%CI [0.57, 0.81]) and past year (IRR = 0.54, 95%CI [0.40, 0.71]) arrests; lower rates of lifetime (IRR = 0.63, 95%CI [0.49, 0.81]) and past year (IRR = 0.70, 95%CI [0.53, 0.92]) incarcerations; and lower scores on externalizing behaviors at follow-up (B = -0.42, SE = .15, p = .005). There were no differences in drug use. BSFT may have long term effects in reducing the number of arrests, incarcerations and externalizing problems. These effects could be explained by the improvements in family functioning that occurred during the effectiveness study. This study contributes to the literature by reporting on the long term outcomes of family therapy for adolescent drug abuse. © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

Creep rupture behavior of unidirectional advanced composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeow, Y. T.

1980-01-01

A 'material modeling' methodology for predicting the creep rupture behavior of unidirectional advanced composites is proposed. In this approach the parameters (obtained from short-term tests) required to make the predictions are the three principal creep compliance master curves and their corresponding quasi-static strengths tested at room temperature (22 C). Using these parameters in conjunction with a failure criterion, creep rupture envelopes can be generated for any combination of in-plane loading conditions and ambient temperature. The analysis was validated experimentally for one composite system, the T300/934 graphite-epoxy system. This was done by performing short-term creep tests (to generate the principal creep compliance master curves with the time-temperature superposition principle) and relatively long-term creep rupture tensile tests of off-axis specimens at 180 C. Good to reasonable agreement between experimental and analytical results is observed.

Tank System Integrated Model: A Cryogenic Tank Performance Prediction Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolshinskiy, L. G.; Hedayat, A.; Hastings, L. J.; Sutherlin, S. G.; Schnell, A. R.; Moder, J. P.

2017-01-01

Accurate predictions of the thermodynamic state of the cryogenic propellants, pressurization rate, and performance of pressure control techniques in cryogenic tanks are required for development of cryogenic fluid long-duration storage technology and planning for future space exploration missions. This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the analytical tool, Tank System Integrated Model (TankSIM), which can be used for modeling pressure control and predicting the behavior of cryogenic propellant for long-term storage for future space missions. Utilizing TankSIM, the following processes can be modeled: tank self-pressurization, boiloff, ullage venting, mixing, and condensation on the tank wall. This TM also includes comparisons of TankSIM program predictions with the test data andexamples of multiphase mission calculations.

Phase 1 report on the development of predictive model for bridge deck cracking and strength development.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

Early-age cracking, typically caused by drying shrinkage (and often coupled with autogenous and thermal : shrinkage), can have several detrimental effects on long-term behavior and durability. Cracking can also provide : ingress of water that can dri...

Market Efficiency and the Risks and Returns of Dynamic Trading Strategies with Commodity Futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Switzer, Lorne N.; Jiang, Hui

This paper investigates relationships between profits from dynamic trading strategies, risk premium, convenience yields, and net hedging pressures for commodity futures. As a market efficiency study, it crosses a number of disciplines, including traditional finance, behavioral finance, and behavioral psychology. The term structure of oil, gold, copper and soybeans futures markets contains predictive power for the corresponding term premium. However, only oil futures and soybean futures lead their spot premium. Significant momentum profits are identified in both outright futures and spread trading strategies when the spot premium and the term premium are used to form winner and loser portfolios. Profits from active strategies based on winner and loser portfolios are conditioned on market structure and net hedging pressure effects. Dynamic trading strategies based on contracts with extreme backwardation, extreme contango, and extreme hedging pressures are also tested. On average, spread trading outperforms outright futures trading in capturing the term structure risk and hedging pressure risk. For such strategies, long-short the long-term spread offers the greatest and most significant return and it offers the only exploitable trading profits built on the past hedging pressure. The existence of profits from active trading strategies based on winners is consistent with behavioral finance and behavioral psychology models in which market participants irrationally overreact to information and trends.

Experimental characterization and modeling of isothermal and nonisothermal physical aging in glassy polymer films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yunlong

This dissertation focuses on nonisothermal physical aging of polymers from both experimental and theoretical aspects. The study concentrates on pure polymers rather than fiber-reinforced composites; this step removes several complicating factors to simplify the study. It is anticipated that the findings of this work can then be applied to composite materials applications. The physical aging tests in this work are performed using a dynamic mechanical analyzer (DMA). The viscoelastic response of glassy polymers under various loading and thermal histories are observed as stress-strain data at a series of time points. The first stage of the experimental work involves the characterization of the isothermal physical aging behavior of two advanced thermoplastics. The second stage conducts tests on the same materials with varying thermal histories and with long-term test duration. This forms the basis to assess and modify a nonisothermal physical aging model (KAHR-ate model). Based on the experimental findings, the KAHR-ate model has been revised by new correlations between aging shift factors and volume response; this revised model performed well in predicting the nonisothermal physical aging behavior of glassy polymers. In the work on isothermal physical aging, short-term creep and stress relaxation tests were performed at several temperatures within 15-35°C below the glass transition temperature (Tg) at various aging times, using the short-term test method established by Struik. Stress and strain levels were such that the materials remained in the linear viscoelastic regime. These curves were then shifted together to determine momentary master curves and shift rates. In order to validate the obtained isothermal physical aging behavior, the results of creep and stress relaxation testing were compared and shown to be consistent with one another using appropriate interconversion of the viscoelastic material functions. Time-temperature superposition of the master curves was also performed. The temperature shift factors and aging shift rates for both PEEK and PPS were consistent for both creep and stress relaxation test results. Nonisothermal physical aging was monitored by sequential short-term creep tests after a series of temperature jumps; the resulting strain histories were analyzed to determine aging shift factors (ate) for each of the creep tests. The nonisothermal aging response was predicted using the KAHR-ate model, which combines the KAHR model of volume recovery with a suitable linear relationship between aging shift factors and specific volume. The KAHR-ate model can be utilized to both predict aging response and to determine necessary model parameters from a set of aging shift factor data. For the PEEK and PPS materials considered in the current study, predictions of mechanical response were demonstrated to be in good agreement with the experimental results for several complicated thermal histories. In addition to short-term nonisothermal aging, long-term creep tests under identical thermal conditions were also analyzed. Effective time theory was unitized to predict long-term response under both isothermal and nonisothermal temperature histories. The long-term compliance after a series of temperature changes was predicted by the KAHR- ate model, and the theoretical predictions and experimental data showed good agreement for various thermal histories. Lastly, physical aging behavior of PPS near the glass transition temperature was investigated, in order to observe the mechanical response in the process of the evolution of the material into equilibrium. At several temperatures near Tg, the time need to reach equilibrium were determined by the creep test results at various aging times. In addition to isothermal physical aging, mechanical shift factors in the period of approaching equilibrium at a common temperature after temperature up-jumps and down-jumps are monitored from creep tests; prior to these temperature jumps, the materials were aged to reach equilibrium states. From these tests, asymmetry of approaching equilibrium phenomenon in ate was observed, which is first-time reported in the literature. This finding shows the similarity between the thermodynamic and mechanical properties during structural relaxation. This work will lead to improved understanding of the viscoelastic behavior of glassy polymers, which is important for better understanding and design of PMCs in elevated temperature applications. With the above findings, this dissertation deals with nonisothermal physical aging of glassy polymers, including both experimental characterization and constructing a framework for predictions of mechanical behavior of polymeric materials under complicated thermal conditions. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Prediction of Exercise in Patients across Various Stages of Bariatric Surgery: A Comparison of the Merits of the Theory of Reasoned Action versus the Theory of Planned Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hunt, Hillary R.; Gross, Alan M.

2009-01-01

Obesity is a world-wide health concern approaching epidemic proportions. Successful long-term treatment involves a combination of bariatric surgery, diet, and exercise. Social cognitive models, such as the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), are among the most commonly tested theories utilized in the…

Officer Individual Differences: Predicting Long-Term Continuance and Performance in the U.S. Army

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-01

Psychology, 51, 321-355. doi: 10.1111/j.1744-6570.1998.tb00728.x Wood, R., & Bandura , A. (1989). Social cognitive theory of organizational management...for the Behavioral and Social Sciences Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. U.S...Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences Department of the Army Deputy Chief of Staff, G1 Authorized and approved for

Cumulative contextual risk at birth in relation to adolescent substance use, conduct problems, and risky sex: General and specific predictive associations in a Finnish birth cohort.

PubMed

Mason, W Alex; January, Stacy-Ann A; Chmelka, Mary B; Parra, Gilbert R; Savolainen, Jukka; Miettunen, Jouko; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Taanila, Anja; Moilanen, Irma

2016-07-01

Research indicates that risk factors cluster in the most vulnerable youth, increasing their susceptibility for adverse developmental outcomes. However, most studies of cumulative risk are cross-sectional or short-term longitudinal, and have been based on data from the United States or the United Kingdom. Using data from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 Study (NFBC1986), we examined cumulative contextual risk (CCR) at birth as a predictor of adolescent substance use and co-occurring conduct problems and risky sex to determine the degree to which CCR predicts specific outcomes over-and-above its effect on general problem behavior, while testing for moderation of associations by gender. Analyses of survey data from 6963 participants of the NFBC1986 followed from the prenatal/birth period into adolescence were conducted using structural equation modeling. CCR had long-term positive associations with first-order substance use, conduct problems, and risky sex factors, and, in a separate analysis, with a second-order general problem behavior factor. Further analyses showed that there was a positive specific effect of CCR on risky sex, over-and-above general problem behavior, for girls only. This study, conducted within the Finnish context, showed that CCR at birth had long-term general and specific predictive associations with substance use and co-occurring problem behaviors in adolescence; effects on risky sex were stronger for girls. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that early exposure to CCR can have lasting adverse consequences, suggesting the need for early identification and intervention efforts for vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model and prediction of stress relaxation of polyurethane fiber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Gexin; Wang, Chunyan; Mei, Shuqin; Yang, Bo; Zhou, Xiuwen

2018-03-01

In this study, the effect of small strain (less than 10%) on hydrogen bond (H-bond) and crystallinity of dry-spun polyurethane fiber was investigated with fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and x-ray diffractometer, respectively. The results showed that the H-bond of hard segments hardly broke and its degree of crystallinity scarcely varied below strain of 10%. The fiber stress relaxation behavior at 25 °C under small strain was researched using dynamic mechanical analyzer. The stress relaxation modulus constitutive equation was obtained by transforming the non-linear relationship between stress and time into the linear relationship between stress and strain. The stress relaxation modulus master curve at 25 °C was established in terms of short-term stress relaxation tests at elevated temperatures (35 °C, 45 °C, 65 °C and 75 °C) according to time-temperature superposition principle (TTS) to predict long-term behavior within 353 year.

Long-Term Cognitive and Behavioral Outcomes following Resolution of Sleep Disordered Breathing in Preschool Children.

PubMed

Biggs, Sarah N; Walter, Lisa M; Jackman, Angela R; Nisbet, Lauren C; Weichard, Aidan J; Hollis, Samantha L; Davey, Margot J; Anderson, Vicki; Nixon, Gillian M; Horne, Rosemary S C

2015-01-01

This study aimed to determine the long term effects of resolution of SDB in preschool children, either following treatment or spontaneous recovery, on cognition and behavior. Children diagnosed with SDB at 3-5y (N = 35) and non-snoring controls (N = 25), underwent repeat polysomnography (PSG) and cognitive and behavioral assessment 3 years following a baseline study. At follow-up, children with SDB were grouped into Resolved and Unresolved. Resolution was defined as: obstructive apnea hypopnea index (OAHI) ≤1 event/h; no snoring detected on PSG; and no parental report of habitual snoring. 57% (20/35) of children with SDB received treatment, with SDB resolving in 60% (12/20). 43% (15/35) were untreated, of whom 40% (6/15) had spontaneous resolution of SDB. Cognitive reduced between baseline and follow-up, however this was not related to persistent disease, with no difference in cognitive outcomes between Resolved, Unresolved or Control groups. Behavioral functioning remained significantly worse in children originally diagnosed with SDB compared to control children, regardless of resolution. Change in OAHI did not predict cognitive or behavioral outcomes, however a reduction in nocturnal arousals, irrespective of full resolution, was associated with improvement in attention and aggressive behavior. These results suggest that resolution of SDB in preschool children has little effect on cognitive or behavioral outcomes over the long term. The association between sleep fragmentation and behavior appears independent of SDB, however may be moderated by concomitant SDB. This challenges the assumption that treatment of SDB will ameliorate associated cognitive and behavioural deficits and supports the possibility of a SDB phenotype.

Chaos in the sunspot cycle - Analysis and prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mundt, Michael D.; Maguire, W. Bruce, II; Chase, Robert R. P.

1991-01-01

The variability of solar activity over long time scales, given semiquantitatively by measurements of sunspot numbers, is examined as a nonlinear dynamical system. First, a discussion of the data set used and the techniques utilized to reduce the noise and capture the long-term dynamics inherent in the data is presented. Subsequently, an attractor is reconstructed from the data set using the method of time delays. The reconstructed attractor is then used to determine both the dimension of the underlying system and also the largest Lyapunov exponent, which together indicate that the sunspot cycle is indeed chaotic and also low dimensional. In addition, recent techniques of exploiting chaotic dynamics to provide accurate, short-term predictions are utilized in order to improve upon current forecasting methods and also to place theoretical limits on predictability extent. The results are compared to chaotic solar-dynamo models as a possible physically motivated source of this chaotic behavior.

Iron Status in Toddlerhood Predicts Sensitivity to Psychostimulants in Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, Catharyn A.; Xie, Diqiong; Zimmerman, Bridget M.; Calarge, Chadi A.

2012-01-01

Objective: Iron deficiency is associated with impaired dopaminergic signaling and externalizing behavior. The authors examine, whether iron stores in toddlerhood influence later response to psychostimulants. Method: Youth participating in a study monitoring the long-term safety of risperidone were included in this analysis if they had received…

Predicting Adult Criminal Behavior from Juvenile Delinquency: Ex-Ante vs. Ex-Post Benefits of Early Intervention

PubMed Central

White, Barry A. B.; Temple, Judy A.; Reynolds, Arthur J.

2016-01-01

Recent analyses of the long-term societal benefits from early intervention (prenatal care, home visitation, and high quality preschool) for at-risk children commonly include significant savings to society in the form of reduced juvenile delinquency and adult criminal behavior. However, a nontrivial proportion of the reported benefits of several early intervention programs are based on forecasts of criminal behavior throughout adulthood conditional on intervention effects on delinquency in adolescence. Data from the Chicago Longitudinal Study (CLS), an investigation of the life course of 1,539 children from low-income families born in 1979–1980, are used to investigate the bias resulting from predicting the effect of early intervention on adult criminal behavior from the effect on delinquency in adolescence. The investigation concludes that the general method used to predict adult criminal behavior results in a conservative estimate of the reduction in the cost of adult criminal behavior attributed to early intervention. PMID:27867324

Predicting Adult Criminal Behavior from Juvenile Delinquency: Ex-Ante vs. Ex-Post Benefits of Early Intervention.

PubMed

White, Barry A B; Temple, Judy A; Reynolds, Arthur J

2010-12-01

Recent analyses of the long-term societal benefits from early intervention (prenatal care, home visitation, and high quality preschool) for at-risk children commonly include significant savings to society in the form of reduced juvenile delinquency and adult criminal behavior. However, a nontrivial proportion of the reported benefits of several early intervention programs are based on forecasts of criminal behavior throughout adulthood conditional on intervention effects on delinquency in adolescence. Data from the Chicago Longitudinal Study (CLS), an investigation of the life course of 1,539 children from low-income families born in 1979-1980, are used to investigate the bias resulting from predicting the effect of early intervention on adult criminal behavior from the effect on delinquency in adolescence. The investigation concludes that the general method used to predict adult criminal behavior results in a conservative estimate of the reduction in the cost of adult criminal behavior attributed to early intervention.

Dilatancy Criteria for Salt Cavern Design: A Comparison Between Stress- and Strain-Based Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labaune, P.; Rouabhi, A.; Tijani, M.; Blanco-Martín, L.; You, T.

2018-02-01

This paper presents a new approach for salt cavern design, based on the use of the onset of dilatancy as a design threshold. In the proposed approach, a rheological model that includes dilatancy at the constitutive level is developed, and a strain-based dilatancy criterion is defined. As compared to classical design methods that consist in simulating cavern behavior through creep laws (fitted on long-term tests) and then using a criterion (derived from short-terms tests or experience) to determine the stability of the excavation, the proposed approach is consistent both with short- and long-term conditions. The new strain-based dilatancy criterion is compared to a stress-based dilatancy criterion through numerical simulations of salt caverns under cyclic loading conditions. The dilatancy zones predicted by the strain-based criterion are larger than the ones predicted by the stress-based criteria, which is conservative yet constructive for design purposes.

Predictive aging results for cable materials in nuclear power plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gillen, K.T.; Clough, R.L.

1990-11-01

In this report, we provide a detailed discussion of methodology of predicting cable degradation versus dose rate, temperature, and exposure time and its application to data obtained on a number of additional nuclear power plant cable insulation (a hypalon, a silicon rubber and two ethylenetetrafluoroethylenes) and jacket (a hypalon) materials. We then show that the predicted, low-dose-rate results for our materials are in excellent agreement with long-term (7 to 9 years), low dose-rate results recently obtained for the same material types actually aged under nuclear power plant conditions. Based on a combination of the modelling and long-term results, we findmore » indications of reasonably similar degradation responses among several different commercial formulations for each of the following generic'' materials: hypalon, ethylenetetrafluoroethylene, silicone rubber and PVC. If such generic'' behavior can be further substantiated through modelling and long-term results on additional formulations, predictions of cable life for other commercial materials of the same generic types would be greatly facilitated. Finally, to aid utilities in their cable life extension decisions, we utilize our modelling results to generate lifetime prediction curves for the materials modelled to data. These curves plot expected material lifetime versus dose rate and temperature down to the levels of interest to nuclear power plant aging. 18 refs., 30 figs., 3 tabs.« less

The Impact of Adolescent Deviance on Marital Trajectories.

PubMed

Doherty, Elaine Eggleston; Green, Kerry M; Ensminger, Margaret E

2012-01-01

Marriage is a key life event that has numerous benefits. Recent research extends these benefits to include desistance from crime and drug use yet there has been little investigation regarding whether deviant behavior in adolescence impacts long-term marital patterns. Since rates of marriage are low among African Americans and rates of adolescent deviance and crime are high, we investigate the long-term relationship between the two drawing on longitudinal data from the Woodlawn cohort of urban African Americans. This article investigates whether serious adolescent delinquency and marijuana use predict marital trajectories, controlling for known correlates. Multivariate findings indicate that within this African-American population, deviance predicts the probability of marriage, stability of marriage, and timing of marriage for men yet deviance relates solely to the probability of marriage for women.

The Impact of Adolescent Deviance on Marital Trajectories

PubMed Central

Doherty, Elaine Eggleston; Green, Kerry M.; Ensminger, Margaret E.

2014-01-01

Marriage is a key life event that has numerous benefits. Recent research extends these benefits to include desistance from crime and drug use yet there has been little investigation regarding whether deviant behavior in adolescence impacts long-term marital patterns. Since rates of marriage are low among African Americans and rates of adolescent deviance and crime are high, we investigate the long-term relationship between the two drawing on longitudinal data from the Woodlawn cohort of urban African Americans. This article investigates whether serious adolescent delinquency and marijuana use predict marital trajectories, controlling for known correlates. Multivariate findings indicate that within this African-American population, deviance predicts the probability of marriage, stability of marriage, and timing of marriage for men yet deviance relates solely to the probability of marriage for women. PMID:25284919

Alternative reproductive tactics in snail shell-brooding cichlids diverge in energy reserve allocation.

PubMed

von Kuerthy, Corinna; Tschirren, Linda; Taborsky, Michael

2015-05-01

Life history theory predicts that the amount of resources allocated to reproduction should maximize an individual's lifetime reproductive success. So far, resource allocation in reproduction has been studied mainly in females. Intraspecific variation of endogenous energy storage and utilization patterns of males has received little attention, although these patterns may vary greatly between individuals pursuing alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs). ARTs are characterized by systematic variation of behavioral, physiological, and often morphological traits among same-sex conspecifics. Some individuals may rely on previously accumulated reserves, because of limited foraging opportunities during reproduction. Others may be able to continue foraging during reproduction, thus relying on reserves to a lesser extent. We therefore predicted that, if male tactics involve such divergent limitations and trade-offs within a species, ARTs should correspondingly differ in energy reserve allocation and utilization. To test this prediction, we studied short-term and long-term reserve storage patterns of males in the shell-brooding cichlid Lamprologus callipterus. In this species, bourgeois males investing in territory defense, courtship, and guarding of broods coexist with two distinct parasitic male tactics: (1) opportunistic sneaker males attempting to fertilize eggs by releasing sperm into the shell opening when a female is spawning; and (2) specialized dwarf males attempting to enter the shell past the spawning female to fertilize eggs from inside the shell. Sneaker males differed from other male types by showing the highest amount of accumulated short-term and long-term fat stores, apparently anticipating their upcoming adoption of the nest male status. In contrast, nest males depleted previously accumulated energy reserves with increasing nest holding period, as they invest heavily into costly reproductive behaviors while not taking up any food. This conforms to a capital breeder strategy. Dwarf males did not accumulate long-term fat stores at all, which they can afford due to their small behavioral effort during reproduction and their continued feeding activity, conforming to an income breeder strategy. Our data confirm that the resource storage patterns of males pursuing ARTs can diverge substantially, which adds to our understanding of the coexistence and maintenance of alternative reproductive patterns within species.

Alternative reproductive tactics in snail shell-brooding cichlids diverge in energy reserve allocation

PubMed Central

von Kuerthy, Corinna; Tschirren, Linda; Taborsky, Michael

2015-01-01

Life history theory predicts that the amount of resources allocated to reproduction should maximize an individual's lifetime reproductive success. So far, resource allocation in reproduction has been studied mainly in females. Intraspecific variation of endogenous energy storage and utilization patterns of males has received little attention, although these patterns may vary greatly between individuals pursuing alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs). ARTs are characterized by systematic variation of behavioral, physiological, and often morphological traits among same-sex conspecifics. Some individuals may rely on previously accumulated reserves, because of limited foraging opportunities during reproduction. Others may be able to continue foraging during reproduction, thus relying on reserves to a lesser extent. We therefore predicted that, if male tactics involve such divergent limitations and trade-offs within a species, ARTs should correspondingly differ in energy reserve allocation and utilization. To test this prediction, we studied short-term and long-term reserve storage patterns of males in the shell-brooding cichlid Lamprologus callipterus. In this species, bourgeois males investing in territory defense, courtship, and guarding of broods coexist with two distinct parasitic male tactics: (1) opportunistic sneaker males attempting to fertilize eggs by releasing sperm into the shell opening when a female is spawning; and (2) specialized dwarf males attempting to enter the shell past the spawning female to fertilize eggs from inside the shell. Sneaker males differed from other male types by showing the highest amount of accumulated short-term and long-term fat stores, apparently anticipating their upcoming adoption of the nest male status. In contrast, nest males depleted previously accumulated energy reserves with increasing nest holding period, as they invest heavily into costly reproductive behaviors while not taking up any food. This conforms to a capital breeder strategy. Dwarf males did not accumulate long-term fat stores at all, which they can afford due to their small behavioral effort during reproduction and their continued feeding activity, conforming to an income breeder strategy. Our data confirm that the resource storage patterns of males pursuing ARTs can diverge substantially, which adds to our understanding of the coexistence and maintenance of alternative reproductive patterns within species. PMID:26045956

Effects of elevated temperature on the viscoplastic modeling of graphite/polymeric composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gates, Thomas S.

1991-01-01

To support the development of new materials for the design of next generation supersonic transports, a research program is underway at NASA to assess the long term durability of advanced polymer matrix composites (PMC's). One of main objectives of the program was to explore the effects of elevated temperature (23 to 200 C) on the constitutive model's material parameters. To achieve this goal, test data on the observed nonlinear, stress-strain behavior of IM7/5260 and IM7/8320 composites under tension and compression loading were collected and correlated against temperature. These tests, conducted under isothermal conditions using variable strain rates, included such phenomena as stress relaxation and short term creep. The second major goal was the verification of the model by comparison of analytical predictions and test results for off axis and angle ply laminates. Correlation between test and predicted behavior was performed for specimens of both material systems over a range of temperatures. Results indicated that the model provided reasonable predictions of material behavior in load or strain controlled tests. Periods of loading, unloading, stress relaxation, and creep were accounted for.

Environment assisted degradation mechanisms in advanced light metals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gangloff, R. P.; Stoner, G. E.; Swanson, R. E.

1989-01-01

A multifaceted research program on the performance of advanced light metallic alloys in aggressive aerospace environments, and associated environmental failure mechanisms was initiated. The general goal is to characterize alloy behavior quantitatively and to develop predictive mechanisms for environmental failure modes. Successes in this regard will provide the basis for metallurgical optimization of alloy performance, for chemical control of aggressive environments, and for engineering life prediction with damage tolerance and long term reliability.

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Ex-Vessel Prediction: Core-Concrete Interaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robb, Kevin R.; Farmer, Mitchell T.; Francis, Matthew W.

Lower head failure and corium-concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for the analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, in this paper an analysis was carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 weremore » used as input. MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. The results of the MELTSPREAD analysis are reported in a companion paper. This information was used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH. For the MELCOR-based melt pour scenario, CORQUENCH predicted the melt would readily cool within 2.5 h after the pour, and the sumps would experience limited ablation (approximately 18 cm) under water-flooded conditions. Finally, for the MAAP-based melt pour scenarios, CORQUENCH predicted that the melt would cool in approximately 22.5 h, and the sumps would experience approximately 65 cm of concrete ablation under water-flooded conditions.« less

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Ex-Vessel Prediction: Core-Concrete Interaction

DOE PAGES

Robb, Kevin R.; Farmer, Mitchell T.; Francis, Matthew W.

2016-10-31

Lower head failure and corium-concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for the analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, in this paper an analysis was carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 weremore » used as input. MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. The results of the MELTSPREAD analysis are reported in a companion paper. This information was used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH. For the MELCOR-based melt pour scenario, CORQUENCH predicted the melt would readily cool within 2.5 h after the pour, and the sumps would experience limited ablation (approximately 18 cm) under water-flooded conditions. Finally, for the MAAP-based melt pour scenarios, CORQUENCH predicted that the melt would cool in approximately 22.5 h, and the sumps would experience approximately 65 cm of concrete ablation under water-flooded conditions.« less

Towards an understanding of the role of the environment in the development of early callous behavior

PubMed Central

Waller, Rebecca; Shaw, Daniel S.; Neiderhiser, Jenae M.; Ganiban, Jody M.; Natsuaki, Misaki N.; Reiss, David; Trentacosta, Christopher; Leve, Leslie D.; Hyde, Luke W.

2015-01-01

Key to understanding the long-term impact of social inequalities is identifying early behaviors that may signal higher risk for later poor psychosocial outcomes, such as psychopathology. A set of early-emerging characteristics that may signal risk for later externalizing psychopathology is Callous-Unemotional (CU) behavior. CU behavior predict severe and chronic trajectories of externalizing behaviors in youth. However, much research on CU behavior has focused on late childhood and adolescence, with little attention paid to early childhood when preventative interventions may be most effective. In this paper, we summarize our recent work showing that: (1) CU behavior can be identified in early childhood using items from common behavior checklists; (2) CU behavior predicts worse outcomes across early childhood; (3) CU behavior exhibits a distinct nomological network from other early externalizing behaviors; and (4) malleable environmental factors, particularly parenting, may play a role in the development of early CU behaviors. We discuss the challenges of studying contextual contributors to the development of CU behavior in terms of gene-environment correlations and present initial results from work examining CU behavior in an adoption study in which gene-environment correlations are examined in early childhood. We find that parenting is a predictor of early CU behavior even in a sample in which parents are not genetically related to the children. PMID:26291075

Predicting Couples' Response to Marital Therapy: A Comparison of Short- and Long-Term Predictors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snyder, Douglas K.; And Others

1993-01-01

Examined couples' response to marital therapy at termination and 4 years posttreatment for 55 couples receiving either behavioral or insight-oriented marital therapy. Couples were more likely to be divorced or maritally distressed four years posttreatment if intake measures reflected high levels of negative marital affect, poor problem-solving…

Effect of Prior Aging on Fatigue Behavior of IM7/BMI 5250-4 Composite at 191 C

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

6 Figure 4. Three stages of fatigue life cycle for general material ....................................... 9 Figure 5...calibration ........ 24 vii Figure 17. Omega thermocouple reader setup .................................................................. 26 Figure...cost and fleet readiness. To assure long- term durability and structural integrity of HTPMC components, reliable experimentally- based life -prediction

Video games and aggressive thoughts, feelings, and behavior in the laboratory and in life.

PubMed

Anderson, C A; Dill, K E

2000-04-01

Two studies examined violent video game effects on aggression-related variables. Study 1 found that real-life violent video game play was positively related to aggressive behavior and delinquency. The relation was stronger for individuals who are characteristically aggressive and for men. Academic achievement was negatively related to overall amount of time spent playing video games. In Study 2, laboratory exposure to a graphically violent video game increased aggressive thoughts and behavior. In both studies, men had a more hostile view of the world than did women. The results from both studies are consistent with the General Affective Aggression Model, which predicts that exposure to violent video games will increase aggressive behavior in both the short term (e.g., laboratory aggression) and the long term (e.g., delinquency).

Mechanical characterization and numerical simulation of a subcutaneous implantable 3D printed cell encapsulation system.

PubMed

Adamo, Federica; Farina, Marco; Thekkedath, Usha R; Grattoni, Alessandro; Sesana, Raffaella

2018-06-01

Cell transplantation in bioengineered scaffolds and encapsulation systems has shown great promise in regenerative medicine. Depending on the site of implantation, type of cells and their expected function, these systems are designed to provide cells with a physiological-like environment while providing mechanical support and promoting long-term viability and function of the graft. A minimally invasive 3D printed system termed neovascularized implantable cell homing and encapsulation (NICHE) was developed in polylactic acid for subcutaneous transplantation of endocrine cells, including pancreatic islets. The suitability of the NICHE for long term in vivo deployment is investigated by assessing mechanical behavior of both fresh devices under simulated subcutaneous conditions and NICHE retrieved from subcutaneous implantation in pigs. Both experimental and numerical studies were performed with a focus on validating the constitutive material model used in the numerical analysis for accuracy and reliability. Notably, homogeneous isotropic constitutive material model calibrated by means of uniaxial testing well suited experimental results. The results highlight the long term durability for in vivo applications and the potential applicability of the model to predict the mechanical behavior of similar devices in various physiological settings. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shared weight and dietary changes in parent-child dyads following family-based obesity treatment.

PubMed

Best, John R; Goldschmidt, Andrea B; Mockus-Valenzuela, Danyte S; Stein, Richard I; Epstein, Leonard H; Wilfley, Denise E

2016-01-01

The primary objective was to determine whether children and their participating parents undergoing family-based behavioral treatment (FBT) for obesity show similar dietary changes following treatment, and if so, whether these shared dietary changes explain the similarity in weight change within the parent-child dyad. Data come from a randomized controlled trial of 148 parent-child dyads who completed FBT and were followed over a 2-year maintenance phase. Energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods ("RED" foods) and fruit and vegetable intake were assessed across time. Maintenance of lower RED food intake following FBT predicted weight maintenance in children and in parents (ps < .01), and dietary and weight changes were correlated within parent-child dyads (ps < .01). Most interesting, the similarity in long-term weight maintenance between children and their parents was predicted by the similarity in long-term changes in RED food intake between children and their parents (p < .001). These findings point to the important role of maintaining low energy-dense, nutrient-poor food intake for long-term weight maintenance in children and parents. Furthermore, these results suggest that the correlation between parent and child weight maintenance can be explained in part by similar long-term changes in energy-dense, nutrient-poor food intake. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Prosocial Behavior: Long-Term Trajectories and Psychosocial Outcomes.

PubMed

Flynn, Elinor; Ehrenreich, Samuel E; Beron, Kurt J; Underwood, Marion K

2015-08-01

This study investigated developmental trajectories for prosocial behavior for a sample followed from age 10 - 18 and examined possible adjustment outcomes associated with membership in different trajectory groups. Participants were 136 boys and 148 girls, their teachers, and their parents (19.4% African American, 2.4% Asian, 51.9% Caucasian, 19.5% Hispanic, and 5.8% other). Teachers rated children's prosocial behavior yearly in grades 4 - 12. At the end of the 12 th grade year, teachers, parents, and participants reported externalizing behaviors and participants reported internalizing symptoms, narcissism, and features of borderline personality disorder. Results suggested that prosocial behavior remained stable from middle childhood through late adolescence. Group-based mixture modeling revealed three prosocial trajectory groups: low (18.7%), medium (52.8%), and high (29.6%). Membership in the high prosocial trajectory group predicted lower levels of externalizing behavior as compared to the low prosocial trajectory group, and for girls, lower levels of internalizing symptoms. Membership in the medium prosocial trajectory group also predicted being lower on externalizing behaviors. Membership in the high prosocial trajectory group predicted lower levels of borderline personality features for girls only.

A 12 year EDF study of concrete creep under uniaxial and biaxial loading

DOE PAGES

Charpin, Laurent; Le Pape, Yann; Coustabeau, Eric; ...

2017-11-04

This paper presents a 12-year-long creep and shrinkage experimental campaign on cylindrical and prismatic concrete samples under uniaxial and biaxial stress, respectively. The motivation for the study is the need for predicting the delayed strains and the pre-stress loss of concrete containment buildings of nuclear power plants. Two subjects are central in this regard: the creep strain's long-term evolution and the creep Poisson's ratio. A greater understanding of these areas is necessary to ensure reliable predictions of the long-term behavior of the concrete containment buildings.Long-term basic creep appears to evolve as a logarithm function of time in the range ofmore » 3 to 10 years of testing. Similar trends are observed for drying creep, autogenous shrinkage, and drying shrinkage testing, which suggests that all delayed strains obtained using different loading and drying conditions originate from a common mechanism.The creep Poisson's ratio derived from the biaxial tests is approximately constant over time for both the basic and drying creep tests (creep strains corrected by the shrinkage strain).It is also shown that the biaxial non-drying samples undergo a significant increase in Young's modulus after 10 years.« less

A 12 year EDF study of concrete creep under uniaxial and biaxial loading

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Charpin, Laurent; Le Pape, Yann; Coustabeau, Eric

This paper presents a 12-year-long creep and shrinkage experimental campaign on cylindrical and prismatic concrete samples under uniaxial and biaxial stress, respectively. The motivation for the study is the need for predicting the delayed strains and the pre-stress loss of concrete containment buildings of nuclear power plants. Two subjects are central in this regard: the creep strain's long-term evolution and the creep Poisson's ratio. A greater understanding of these areas is necessary to ensure reliable predictions of the long-term behavior of the concrete containment buildings.Long-term basic creep appears to evolve as a logarithm function of time in the range ofmore » 3 to 10 years of testing. Similar trends are observed for drying creep, autogenous shrinkage, and drying shrinkage testing, which suggests that all delayed strains obtained using different loading and drying conditions originate from a common mechanism.The creep Poisson's ratio derived from the biaxial tests is approximately constant over time for both the basic and drying creep tests (creep strains corrected by the shrinkage strain).It is also shown that the biaxial non-drying samples undergo a significant increase in Young's modulus after 10 years.« less

Compound stimulus presentation and the norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor atomoxetine enhance long-term extinction of cocaine-seeking behavior.

PubMed

Janak, Patricia H; Bowers, M Scott; Corbit, Laura H

2012-03-01

Drug abstinence is frequently compromised when addicted individuals are re-exposed to environmental stimuli previously associated with drug use. Research with human addicts and in animal models has demonstrated that extinction learning (non-reinforced cue-exposure) can reduce the capacity of such stimuli to induce relapse, yet extinction therapies have limited long-term success under real-world conditions (Bouton, 2002; O'Brien, 2008). We hypothesized that enhancing extinction would reduce the later ability of drug-predictive cues to precipitate drug-seeking behavior. We, therefore, tested whether compound stimulus presentation and pharmacological treatments that augment noradrenergic activity (atomoxetine; norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor) during extinction training would facilitate the extinction of drug-seeking behaviors, thus reducing relapse. Rats were trained that the presentation of a discrete cue signaled that a lever press response would result in cocaine reinforcement. Rats were subsequently extinguished and spontaneous recovery of drug-seeking behavior following presentation of previously drug-predictive cues was tested 4 weeks later. We find that compound stimulus presentations or pharmacologically increasing noradrenergic activity during extinction training results in less future recovery of responding, whereas propranolol treatment reduced the benefit seen with compound stimulus presentation. These data may have important implications for understanding the biological basis of extinction learning, as well as for improving the outcome of extinction-based therapies.

Applying the concept of ecohydrological equilibrium to predict steady-state leaf area index for Australian ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Medlyn, B.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Duursma, R.

2017-12-01

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a key variable in modelling terrestrial vegetation, because it has a major impact on carbon, water and energy fluxes. However, LAI is difficult to predict: several recent intercomparisons have shown that modelled LAI differs significantly among models, and between models and satellite-derived estimates. Empirical studies show that long-term mean LAI is strongly related to mean annual precipitation. This observation is predicted by the theory of ecohydrological equilibrium, which provides a promising alternative means to predict steady-state LAI. We implemented this theory in a simple optimisation model. We hypothesized that, when water availability is limited, plants should adjust long-term LAI and stomatal behavior (g1) to maximize net canopy carbon export, under the constraint that canopy transpiration is a fixed fraction of total precipitation. We evaluated the predicted LAI (Lopt) for Australia against ground-based observations of LAI at 135 sites, and continental-scale satellite-derived estimates. For the site-level data, the RMSE of predicted Lopt was 0.14 m2 m-2, which was similar to the RMSE of a comparison of the data against nine-year mean satellite-derived LAI at those sites. Continentally, Lopt had a R2 of over 70% when compared to satellite-derived LAI, which is comparable to the R2 obtained when different satellite products are compared against each other. The predicted response of Lopt to the increase in atmospheric CO2 over the last 30 years also agreed with the estimate based on satellite-derivatives. Our results indicate that long-term equilibrium LAI can be successfully predicted from a simple application of ecohydrological theory. We suggest that this theory could be usefully incorporated into terrestrial vegetation models to improve their predictions of LAI.

Prediction of long-term transverse creep compliance in high-temperature IM7/LaRC-RP46 composites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yuan, F.G.; Potter, B.D.

1994-12-31

An experimental study is performed which predicts long-term tensile transverse creep compliance of high-temperature IM7/LaRC-RP46 composites from short-term creep and recovery tests. The short-term tests were conducted for various stress levels at various fixed temperatures. Predictive nonlinear viscoelastic model developed by Schapery and experimental procedure were used to predict the long-term results in terms of master curve extrapolated from short-term tests.

Investigation of the effect of aggregates' morphology on concrete creep properties by numerical simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lavergne, F.; Sab, K., E-mail: karam.sab@enpc.fr; Sanahuja, J.

2015-05-15

Prestress losses due to creep of concrete is a matter of interest for long-term operations of nuclear power plants containment buildings. Experimental studies by Granger (1995) have shown that concretes with similar formulations have different creep behaviors. The aim of this paper is to numerically investigate the effect of size distribution and shape of elastic inclusions on the long-term creep of concrete. Several microstructures with prescribed size distribution and spherical or polyhedral shape of inclusions are generated. By using the 3D numerical homogenization procedure for viscoelastic microstructures proposed by Šmilauer and Bažant (2010), it is shown that the size distributionmore » and shape of inclusions have no measurable influence on the overall creep behavior. Moreover, a mean-field estimate provides close predictions. An Interfacial Transition Zone was introduced according to the model of Nadeau (2003). It is shown that this feature of concrete's microstructure can explain differences between creep behaviors.« less

Maternal postpartum depression and infant social withdrawal among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive mother-infant dyads.

PubMed

Hartley, C; Pretorius, K; Mohamed, A; Laughton, B; Madhi, S; Cotton, M F; Steyn, B; Seedat, S

2010-05-01

Maternal postpartum depression poses significant risks for mother-child interaction and long-term infant outcomes. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status has also been implicated in the development of postpartum depression, but the association between maternal depression and infant social behavior in the context of HIV infection has not been fully investigated. First, we examined the relationship between maternal postpartum depression and infant social withdrawal at 10-12 months of age in HIV-infected mothers and infants. Second, we ascertained whether infant social withdrawal could be significantly predicted by maternal postpartum depression. The sample consisted of 83 HIV-infected mother-infant dyads. Mothers were assessed for postpartum depression with the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), and infant social withdrawal behavior was rated using the Modified Alarm Distress Baby Scale (m-ADBB). 42.2% of the mothers scored above the cut-off point for depression on the EPDS, and a third of infants (31%) were socially withdrawn. Notably, maternal depression did not predict infant social withdrawal as measured by the m-ADBB. Infant social withdrawal was also not significantly associated with failure to thrive or gender. These preliminary findings need further investigation with respect to the impact on long-term neurodevelopmental and behavioral outcomes.

The continuity of psychopathology from early childhood to preadolescence: a prospective cohort study of 3-12-year-old children.

PubMed

Pihlakoski, Leena; Sourander, Andre; Aromaa, Minna; Rautava, Päivi; Helenius, Hans; Sillanpää, Matti

2006-10-01

To study the continuity of psychopathology from the age of 3-12 years. In a population-based birth cohort, children's emotional and behavioral problems were assessed at age 3 using the Child Behavior Checklist 2-3 (CBCL 2-3), and at age 12 by parents using the CBCL 11-18, and the Youth Self Report (YSR) completed by the children. Behavioral ratings were obtained from 800 subjects at both time points. externalizing problems at age 3 predicted both externalizing and internalizing problems among both genders in preadolescence. In girls, internalizing behavior at age 3 predicted parent-reported internalizing behavior, and associated negatively with externalizing behavior in self-reports at age 12. Aggressive behavior was found to be remarkably stable, and both aggressive and destructive behavior independently predicted a wide range of later externalizing and internalizing problems. Parent ratings of withdrawal showed stability from early childhood to preadolescence in both genders. Somatic complaints of 3-year-old girls independently predicted both externalizing and internalizing problems. The results show the complexity of pathways in psychopathology from early childhood to preadolescence. In particular, aggressive and destructive behaviors in very early childhood predict later problems and necessitate early recognition and possible intervention at an early age. An instrument like the CBCL 2-3 is valuable in the early detection of children at risk of long-term problems.

“Everyone Needs a Friend Sometimes” – Social Predictors of Long-Term Remission In First Episode Psychosis

PubMed Central

Bjornestad, Jone; Joa, Inge; Larsen, Tor K.; Langeveld, Johannes; Davidson, Larry; ten Velden Hegelstad, Wenche; Anda, Liss G.; Veseth, Marius; Melle, Ingrid; Johannessen, Jan O.; Bronnick, Kolbjorn

2016-01-01

Background: Predictors of long-term symptomatic remission are crucial to the successful tailoring of treatment in first episode psychosis. There is lack of studies distinguishing the predictive effects of different social factors. This prevents a valid evaluating of their independent effects. Objectives: To test specific social baseline predictors of long-term remission. We hypothesized that first, satisfaction with social relations predicts remission; second, that frequency of social interaction predicts remission; and third, that the effect of friend relationship satisfaction and frequency will be greater than that of family relations satisfaction and frequency. Material and Methods: A sample of first episode psychosis (n = 186) completed baseline measures of social functioning, as well as clinical assessments. We compared groups of remitted and non-remitted individuals using generalized estimating equations analyses. Results: Frequency of social interaction with friends was a significant positive predictor of remission over a two-year period. Neither global perceived social satisfaction nor frequency of family interaction showed significant effects. Conclusions: The study findings are of particular clinical importance since frequency of friendship interaction is a possibly malleable factor. Frequency of interaction could be affected through behavioral modification and therapy already from an early stage in the course, and thus increase remission rates. PMID:27757090

Transport and discrete particle noise in gyrokinetic simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, Thomas; Lee, W. W.

2006-10-01

We present results from our recent investigations regarding the effects of discrete particle noise on the long-time behavior and transport properties of gyrokinetic particle-in-cell simulations. It is found that the amplitude of nonlinearly saturated drift waves is unaffected by discreteness-induced noise in plasmas whose behavior is dominated by a single mode in the saturated state. We further show that the scaling of this noise amplitude with particle count is correctly predicted by the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, even though the drift waves have driven the plasma from thermal equilibrium. As well, we find that the long-term behavior of the saturated system is unaffected by discreteness-induced noise even when multiple modes are included. Additional work utilizing a code with both total-f and δf capabilities is also presented, as part of our efforts to better understand the long- time balance between entropy production, collisional dissipation, and particle/heat flux in gyrokinetic plasmas.

A Hippocampal Cognitive Prosthesis: Multi-Input, Multi-Output Nonlinear Modeling and VLSI Implementation

PubMed Central

Berger, Theodore W.; Song, Dong; Chan, Rosa H. M.; Marmarelis, Vasilis Z.; LaCoss, Jeff; Wills, Jack; Hampson, Robert E.; Deadwyler, Sam A.; Granacki, John J.

2012-01-01

This paper describes the development of a cognitive prosthesis designed to restore the ability to form new long-term memories typically lost after damage to the hippocampus. The animal model used is delayed nonmatch-to-sample (DNMS) behavior in the rat, and the “core” of the prosthesis is a biomimetic multi-input/multi-output (MIMO) nonlinear model that provides the capability for predicting spatio-temporal spike train output of hippocampus (CA1) based on spatio-temporal spike train inputs recorded presynaptically to CA1 (e.g., CA3). We demonstrate the capability of the MIMO model for highly accurate predictions of CA1 coded memories that can be made on a single-trial basis and in real-time. When hippocampal CA1 function is blocked and long-term memory formation is lost, successful DNMS behavior also is abolished. However, when MIMO model predictions are used to reinstate CA1 memory-related activity by driving spatio-temporal electrical stimulation of hippocampal output to mimic the patterns of activity observed in control conditions, successful DNMS behavior is restored. We also outline the design in very-large-scale integration for a hardware implementation of a 16-input, 16-output MIMO model, along with spike sorting, amplification, and other functions necessary for a total system, when coupled together with electrode arrays to record extracellularly from populations of hippocampal neurons, that can serve as a cognitive prosthesis in behaving animals. PMID:22438335

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Puskar, Joseph David; Quintana, Michael A.; Sorensen, Neil Robert

A program is underway at Sandia National Laboratories to predict long-term reliability of photovoltaic (PV) systems. The vehicle for the reliability predictions is a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), which models system behavior. Because this model is based mainly on field failure and repair times, it can be used to predict current reliability, but it cannot currently be used to accurately predict lifetime. In order to be truly predictive, physics-informed degradation processes and failure mechanisms need to be included in the model. This paper describes accelerated life testing of metal foil tapes used in thin-film PV modules, and how tape jointmore » degradation, a possible failure mode, can be incorporated into the model.« less

Rules, culture, and fitness

PubMed Central

Baum, William M.

1995-01-01

Behavior analysis risks intellectual isolation unless it integrates its explanations with evolutionary theory. Rule-governed behavior is an example of a topic that requires an evolutionary perspective for a full understanding. A rule may be defined as a verbal discriminative stimulus produced by the behavior of a speaker under the stimulus control of a long-term contingency between the behavior and fitness. As a discriminative stimulus, the rule strengthens listener behavior that is reinforced in the short run by socially mediated contingencies, but which also enters into the long-term contingency that enhances the listener's fitness. The long-term contingency constitutes the global context for the speaker's giving the rule. When a rule is said to be “internalized,” the listener's behavior has switched from short- to long-term control. The fitness-enhancing consequences of long-term contingencies are health, resources, relationships, or reproduction. This view ties rules both to evolutionary theory and to culture. Stating a rule is a cultural practice. The practice strengthens, with short-term reinforcement, behavior that usually enhances fitness in the long run. The practice evolves because of its effect on fitness. The standard definition of a rule as a verbal statement that points to a contingency fails to distinguish between a rule and a bargain (“If you'll do X, then I'll do Y”), which signifies only a single short-term contingency that provides mutual reinforcement for speaker and listener. In contrast, the giving and following of a rule (“Dress warmly; it's cold outside”) can be understood only by reference also to a contingency providing long-term enhancement of the listener's fitness or the fitness of the listener's genes. Such a perspective may change the way both behavior analysts and evolutionary biologists think about rule-governed behavior. ImagesFigure 1 PMID:22478201

Dispersion of Self-Propelled Rods Undergoing Fluctuation-Driven Flips

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takagi, Daisuke; Braunschweig, Adam B.; Zhang, Jun; Shelley, Michael J.

2013-01-01

Synthetic microswimmers may someday perform medical and technological tasks, but predicting their motion and dispersion is challenging. Here we show that chemically propelled rods tend to move on a surface along large circles but curiously show stochastic changes in the sign of the orbit curvature. By accounting for fluctuation-driven flipping of slightly curved rods, we obtain analytical predictions for the ensemble behavior in good agreement with our experiments. This shows that minor defects in swimmer shape can yield major long-term effects on macroscopic dispersion.

Brain connectivity changes occurring following cognitive behavioural therapy for psychosis predict long-term recovery.

PubMed

Mason, L; Peters, E; Williams, S C; Kumari, V

2017-01-17

Little is known about the psychobiological mechanisms of cognitive behavioural therapy for psychosis (CBTp) and which specific processes are key in predicting favourable long-term outcomes. Following theoretical models of psychosis, this proof-of-concept study investigated whether the long-term recovery path of CBTp completers can be predicted by the neural changes in threat-based social affective processing that occur during CBTp. We followed up 22 participants who had undergone a social affective processing task during functional magnetic resonance imaging along with self-report and clinician-administered symptom measures, before and after receiving CBTp. Monthly ratings of psychotic and affective symptoms were obtained retrospectively across 8 years since receiving CBTp, plus self-reported recovery at final follow-up. We investigated whether these long-term outcomes were predicted by CBTp-led changes in functional connections with dorsal prefrontal cortical and amygdala during the processing of threatening and prosocial facial affect. Although long-term psychotic symptoms were predicted by changes in prefrontal connections during prosocial facial affective processing, long-term affective symptoms were predicted by threat-related amygdalo-inferior parietal lobule connectivity. Greater increases in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex connectivity with amygdala following CBTp also predicted higher subjective ratings of recovery at long-term follow-up. These findings show that reorganisation occurring at the neural level following psychological therapy can predict the subsequent recovery path of people with psychosis across 8 years. This novel methodology shows promise for further studies with larger sample size, which are needed to better examine the sensitivity of psychobiological processes, in comparison to existing clinical measures, in predicting long-term outcomes.

The impact of experimental measurement errors on long-term viscoelastic predictions. [of structural materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tuttle, M. E.; Brinson, H. F.

1986-01-01

The impact of flight error in measured viscoelastic parameters on subsequent long-term viscoelastic predictions is numerically evaluated using the Schapery nonlinear viscoelastic model. Of the seven Schapery parameters, the results indicated that long-term predictions were most sensitive to errors in the power law parameter n. Although errors in the other parameters were significant as well, errors in n dominated all other factors at long times. The process of selecting an appropriate short-term test cycle so as to insure an accurate long-term prediction was considered, and a short-term test cycle was selected using material properties typical for T300/5208 graphite-epoxy at 149 C. The process of selection is described, and its individual steps are itemized.

Effects of historical and predictive information on ability of transport pilot to predict an alert

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trujillo, Anna C.

1994-01-01

In the aviation community, the early detection of the development of a possible subsystem problem during a flight is potentially useful for increasing the safety of the flight. Commercial airlines are currently using twin-engine aircraft for extended transport operations over water, and the early detection of a possible problem might increase the flight crew's options for safely landing the aircraft. One method for decreasing the severity of a developing problem is to predict the behavior of the problem so that appropriate corrective actions can be taken. To investigate the pilots' ability to predict long-term events, a computer workstation experiment was conducted in which 18 airline pilots predicted the alert time (the time to an alert) using 3 different dial displays and 3 different parameter behavior complexity levels. The three dial displays were as follows: standard (resembling current aircraft round dial presentations); history (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec in the past); and predictive (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec into the future). The time profiles describing the behavior of the parameter consisted of constant rate-of-change profiles, decelerating profiles, and accelerating-then-decelerating profiles. Although the pilots indicated that they preferred the near term predictive dial, the objective data did not support its use. The objective data did show that the time profiles had the most significant effect on performance in estimating the time to an alert.

Long-term effects of infant attachment organization on adult behavior and health in nursery-reared, captive chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes).

PubMed

Clay, Andrea W; Bloomsmith, Mollie A; Bard, Kim A; Maple, Terry L; Marr, Marcus J

2015-05-01

This research traces the long-term effects on health, well-being, personality, and behavior of adult chimpanzees as a function of their attachment to a primary human caregiver assessed when they were 1 year of age. Of the 46 chimpanzees assessed at 1 year of age, we assessed health in 43 individuals, adult behavior in 20 individuals, and adult well-being and personality in 21 individuals. Attachment disorganization was found to be a significant predictor of stereotypic rocking in adult chimpanzees, F(1, 18) = 7.50, p = .013. For those subjects (N = 24) with a full 20 years (birth through age 20 years) of health data available, both rearing experience and disorganized attachment were significant predictors of upper respiratory infection frequency, F(2, 21) = 8.86, p = .002. Chimpanzees with disorganized attachment exhibited average subjective well-being as adults, whereas chimpanzees with organized strategies exhibited higher than average subjective well-being as adults. These results support the findings of human attachment research and are in line with attachment-based predictions for chimpanzees, such that the consequences of an early history of disorganized attachment may be adverse and long lasting. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Health-related quality of life and emotional and behavioral difficulties after extreme preterm birth: developmental trajectories.

PubMed

Vederhus, Bente Johanne; Eide, Geir Egil; Natvig, Gerd Karin; Markestad, Trond; Graue, Marit; Halvorsen, Thomas

2015-01-01

Background. Knowledge of long-term health related outcomes in contemporary populations born extremely preterm (EP) is scarce. We aimed to explore developmental trajectories of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and behavior from mid-childhood to early adulthood in extremely preterm and term-born individuals. Methods. Subjects born at gestational age ≤28 weeks or with birth weight ≤1,000 g within a region of Norway in 1991-92 and matched term-born control subjects were assessed at 10 and 18 years. HRQoL was measured with the Child Health Questionnaire (CHQ) and behavior with the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL), using parent assessment at both ages and self-assessment at 18 years. Results. All eligible EP (n = 35) and control children participated at 10 years, and 31 (89%) and 29 (83%) at 18 years. At 10 years, the EP born boys were given significantly poorer scores by their parents than term-born controls on most CHQ and CBCL scales, but the differences were minor at 18 years; i.e., significant improvements had occurred in several CHQ (self-esteem, general health and parental impact-time) and CBCL (total problem, internalizing and anxious/depressed) scales. For the girls, the differences were smaller at 10 years and remained unchanged by 18 years. Emotional/behavioral difficulties at 10 years similarly predicted poorer improvement on CHQ-scales for both EP and term-born subjects at 18 years. Self-assessment of HRQoL and behavior at 18 years was similar in the EP and term-born groups on most scales. Conclusions. HRQoL and behavior improved towards adulthood for EP born boys, while the girls remained relatively similar, and early emotional and behavioral difficulties predicted poorer development in HRQoL through adolescence. These data indicate that gender and a longitudinal perspective should be considered when addressing health and wellbeing after extremely preterm birth.

Role of Subdural Electrocorticography in Prediction of Long-Term Seizure Outcome in Epilepsy Surgery

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asano, Eishi; Juhasz, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

2009-01-01

Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age…

Future missions studies: Combining Schatten's solar activity prediction model with a chaotic prediction model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashrafi, S.

1991-01-01

K. Schatten (1991) recently developed a method for combining his prediction model with our chaotic model. The philosophy behind this combined model and his method of combination is explained. Because the Schatten solar prediction model (KS) uses a dynamo to mimic solar dynamics, accurate prediction is limited to long-term solar behavior (10 to 20 years). The Chaotic prediction model (SA) uses the recently developed techniques of nonlinear dynamics to predict solar activity. It can be used to predict activity only up to the horizon. In theory, the chaotic prediction should be several orders of magnitude better than statistical predictions up to that horizon; beyond the horizon, chaotic predictions would theoretically be just as good as statistical predictions. Therefore, chaos theory puts a fundamental limit on predictability.

Long-term leaching of photovoltaic modules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nover, Jessica; Zapf-Gottwick, Renate; Feifel, Carolin; Koch, Michael; Metzger, Jörg W.; Werner, Jürgen H.

2017-08-01

Some photovoltaic module technologies use toxic materials. We report long-term leaching on photovoltaic module pieces of 5 × 5 cm2 size. The pieces are cut out from modules of the four major commercial photovoltaic technologies: crystalline and amorphous silicon, cadmium telluride as well as from copper indium gallium diselenide. To simulate different environmental conditions, leaching occurs at room temperature in three different water-based solutions with pH 3, 7, and 11. No agitation is performed to simulate more representative field conditions. After 360 days, about 1.4% of lead from crystalline silicon module pieces and 62% of cadmium from cadmium telluride module pieces are leached out in acidic solutions. The leaching depends heavily on the pH and the redox potential of the aqueous solutions and it increases with time. The leaching behavior is predictable by thermodynamic stability considerations. These predictions are in good agreement with the experimental results.

Negative affect as a moderator of the relationship between hookup motives and hookup consequences.

PubMed

Montes, Kevin S; Napper, Lucy E; Froidevaux, Nicole M; Kenney, Shannon; LaBrie, Joseph W

2016-01-01

The current study examined the extent to which negative affect moderates the relationships between distinct hookup motives and hookup consequences. Data were collected from 271 heavy-drinking undergraduate college students. Students from 3 US universities completed online surveys assessing hooking up-related motives, behaviors, and consequences. The results showed that conformity motives to hookup and negative affect predicted hookup consequences. Furthermore, negative affect moderated the relationship between hooking up for relationship reasons and hookup consequences. Specifically, among students with high negative affect, hooking up to secure a long-term relationship was positively associated with hookup consequences whereas among students with low negative affect, securing a long-term relationship was negatively associated with hookup consequences. These findings highlight the role that motives and negative affect play in the prediction of negative hookup consequences. Moreover, the findings from the current study have the potential to inform prevention efforts designed to reduce hookup consequences.

An empirical approach to predicting long term behavior of metal particle based recording media

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hadad, Allan S.

1992-01-01

Alpha iron particles used for magnetic recording are prepared through a series of dehydration and reduction steps of alpha-Fe2O3-H2O resulting in acicular, polycrystalline, body centered cubic (bcc) alpha-Fe particles that are single magnetic domains. Since fine iron particles are pyrophoric by nature, stabilization processes had to be developed in order for iron particles to be considered as a viable recording medium for long term archival (i.e., 25+ years) information storage. The primary means of establishing stability is through passivation or controlled oxidation of the iron particle's surface. A study was undertaken to examine the degradation in magnetic properties as a function of both temperature and humidity on silicon-containing iron particles between 50-120 C and 3-89 percent relative humidity. The methodology to which experimental data was collected and analyzed leading to predictive capability is discussed.

Long-Term Post-CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions.

PubMed

Carr, Brendan M; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C; Zhu, Wei; Shroyer, A Laurie

2016-01-01

Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short-term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long-term mortality. The added value of long-term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long-term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Long-term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c-index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one-, three-, and five years, respectively (median follow-up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long-term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Long-term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long-term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher-risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow-up care. More research appears warranted to refine long-term CABG clinical risk models. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Cardiac Surgery Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Nonlinear viscoelastic characterization of polymer materials using a dynamic-mechanical methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strganac, Thomas W.; Payne, Debbie Flowers; Biskup, Bruce A.; Letton, Alan

1995-01-01

Polymer materials retrieved from LDEF exhibit nonlinear constitutive behavior; thus the authors present a method to characterize nonlinear viscoelastic behavior using measurements from dynamic (oscillatory) mechanical tests. Frequency-derived measurements are transformed into time-domain properties providing the capability to predict long term material performance without a lengthy experimentation program. Results are presented for thin-film high-performance polymer materials used in the fabrication of high-altitude scientific balloons. Predictions based upon a linear test and analysis approach are shown to deteriorate for moderate to high stress levels expected for extended applications. Tests verify that nonlinear viscoelastic response is induced by large stresses. Hence, an approach is developed in which the stress-dependent behavior is examined in a manner analogous to modeling temperature-dependent behavior with time-temperature correspondence and superposition principles. The development leads to time-stress correspondence and superposition of measurements obtained through dynamic mechanical tests. Predictions of material behavior using measurements based upon linear and nonlinear approaches are compared with experimental results obtained from traditional creep tests. Excellent agreement is shown for the nonlinear model.

Prosocial Behavior: Long-Term Trajectories and Psychosocial Outcomes

PubMed Central

Flynn, Elinor; Ehrenreich, Samuel E.; Beron, Kurt J.; Underwood, Marion K.

2015-01-01

This study investigated developmental trajectories for prosocial behavior for a sample followed from age 10 – 18 and examined possible adjustment outcomes associated with membership in different trajectory groups. Participants were 136 boys and 148 girls, their teachers, and their parents (19.4% African American, 2.4% Asian, 51.9% Caucasian, 19.5% Hispanic, and 5.8% other). Teachers rated children’s prosocial behavior yearly in grades 4 – 12. At the end of the 12th grade year, teachers, parents, and participants reported externalizing behaviors and participants reported internalizing symptoms, narcissism, and features of borderline personality disorder. Results suggested that prosocial behavior remained stable from middle childhood through late adolescence. Group-based mixture modeling revealed three prosocial trajectory groups: low (18.7%), medium (52.8%), and high (29.6%). Membership in the high prosocial trajectory group predicted lower levels of externalizing behavior as compared to the low prosocial trajectory group, and for girls, lower levels of internalizing symptoms. Membership in the medium prosocial trajectory group also predicted being lower on externalizing behaviors. Membership in the high prosocial trajectory group predicted lower levels of borderline personality features for girls only. PMID:26236108

The role of objective personality inventories in suicide risk assessment: an evaluation and proposal.

PubMed

Johnson, W B; Lall, R; Bongar, B; Nordlund, M D

1999-01-01

Objective personality assessment instruments offer a comparatively underutilized source of clinical data in attempts to evaluate and predict risk for suicide. In contrast to focal suicide risk measures, global personality inventories may be useful in identification of long-standing styles that predispose persons to eventual suicidal behavior. This article reviews the empirical literature regarding the efficacy of established personality inventories in predicting suicidality. The authors offer several recommendations for future research with these measures and conclude that such objective personality instruments offer only marginal utility as sources of clinical information in comprehensive suicide risk evaluations. Personality inventories may offer greatest utility in long-term assessment of suicide risk.

Ancient Chinese Observations and Modern Cometary Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeomans, D. K.

1995-01-01

Ancient astronomical observations, primarily by Chinese, represent the only data source for discerning the long-term behavior of comets. These sky watchers produced astrological forecasts for their emperors. The comets Halley, Swift-Tuttle, and Tempel-Tuttle have been observed for 2000 years. Records of the Leonid meteor showers, starting from A.D.902, are used to guide predictions for the 1998-1999 reoccurrence.

Practice makes perfect: self-reported adherence a positive marker of inhaler technique maintenance.

PubMed

Azzi, Elizabeth; Srour, Pamela; Armour, Carol; Rand, Cynthia; Bosnic-Anticevich, Sinthia

2017-04-24

Poor inhaler technique and non-adherence to treatment are major problems in the management of asthma. Patients can be taught how to achieve good inhaler technique, however maintenance remains problematic, with 50% of patients unable to demonstrate correct technique. The aim of this study was to determine the clinical, patient-related and/or device-related factors that predict inhaler technique maintenance. Data from a quality-controlled longitudinal community care dataset was utilized. 238 patients using preventer medications where included. Data consisted of patient demographics, clinical data, medication-related factors and patient-reported outcomes. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to identify predictors of inhaler technique maintenance at 1 month. The variables found to be independently associated with inhaler technique maintenance using logistic regression (Χ 2 (3,n = 238) = 33.24, p < 0.000) were inhaler technique at Visit 1 (OR 7.1), device type (metered dose inhaler and dry powder inhalers) (OR 2.2) and self-reported adherent behavior in the prior 7 days (OR 1.3). This research is the first to unequivocally establish a predictive relationship between inhaler technique maintenance and actual patient adherence, reinforcing the notion that inhaler technique maintenance is more than just a physical skill. Inhaler technique maintenance has an underlying behavioral component, which future studies need to investigate. BEHAVIORAL ELEMENT TO CORRECT LONG-TERM INHALER TECHNIQUES: Patients who consciously make an effort to perfect asthma inhaler technique will maintain their skills long-term. Elizabeth Azzi at the University of Sydney, Australia, and co-workers further add evidence that there is a strong behavioral component to patients retaining correct inhaler technique over time. Poor inhaler technique can limit asthma control, affecting quality of life and increasing the chances of severe exacerbations. Azzi's team followed 238 patients to determine the key predictors of inhaler technique maintenance from factors including age, asthma knowledge and perceived future risks. Correct inhaler technique at initial assessment was the strongest predictor of long-term success, but this was strengthened further when patients reported good adherence to their own medication regimen. This suggests that maintaining correct inhaler technique is more than just a physical skill. Careful guidance towards this 'practice makes perfect' approach may improve patients' long-term technique maintenance.

Subjective Life Expectancy Among College Students.

PubMed

Rodemann, Alyssa E; Arigo, Danielle

2017-09-14

Establishing healthy habits in college is important for long-term health. Despite existing health promotion efforts, many college students fail to meet recommendations for behaviors such as healthy eating and exercise, which may be due to low perceived risk for health problems. The goals of this study were to examine: (1) the accuracy of life expectancy predictions, (2) potential individual differences in accuracy (i.e., gender and conscientiousness), and (3) potential change in accuracy after inducing awareness of current health behaviors. College students from a small northeastern university completed an electronic survey, including demographics, initial predictions of their life expectancy, and their recent health behaviors. At the end of the survey, participants were asked to predict their life expectancy a second time. Their health data were then submitted to a validated online algorithm to generate calculated life expectancy. Participants significantly overestimated their initial life expectancy, and neither gender nor conscientiousness was related to the accuracy of these predictions. Further, subjective life expectancy decreased from initial to final predictions. These findings suggest that life expectancy perceptions present a unique-and potentially modifiable-psychological process that could influence college students' self-care.

Creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and long-term deformation analysis of landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Liangchao; Wang, Shimei; Zhang, Yeming

2015-04-01

Sliding zone soil is a special soil layer formed in the development of a landslide. Its creep behavior plays a significant role in long-term deformation of landslides. Due to rainfall infiltration and reservoir water level fluctuation, the soils in the slide zone are often in unsaturated state. Therefore, the investigation of creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils is of great importance for understanding the mechanism of the long-term deformation of a landslide in reservoir areas. In this study, the full-process creep curves of the unsaturated soils in the sliding zone in different net confining pressure, matric suctions and stress levels were obtained from a large number of laboratory triaxial creep tests. A nonlinear creep model for unsaturated soils and its three-dimensional form was then deduced based on the component model theory and unsaturated soil mechanics. This creep model was validated with laboratory creep data. The results show that this creep model can effectively and accurately describe the nonlinear creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils. In order to apply this creep model to predict the long-term deformation process of landslides, a numerical model for simulating the coupled seepage and creep deformation of unsaturated sliding zone soils was developed based on this creep model through the finite element method (FEM). By using this numerical model, we simulated the deformation process of the Shuping landslide located in the Three Gorges reservoir area, under the cycling reservoir water level fluctuation during one year. The simulation results of creep displacement were then compared with the field deformation monitoring data, showing a good agreement in trend. The results show that the creeping deformations of landslides have strong connections with the changes of reservoir water level. The creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and the findings obtained by numerical simulations in this study are conducive to reveal the mechanisms of the dynamic process of landslide deformation, and serve as an important basis for the prediction and evaluation of landslides.

Acceptance and relationship context: a model of substance use disorder treatment outcome.

PubMed

Gifford, Elizabeth V; Ritsher, Jennifer B; McKellar, John D; Moos, Rudolf H

2006-08-01

This study presented and tested a model of behavior change in long-term substance use disorder recovery, the acceptance and relationship context (ARC) model. The model specifies that acceptance-based behavior and constructive social relationships lead to recovery, and that treatment programs with supportive, involved relationships facilitate the development of these factors. This study used a prospective longitudinal naturalistic design and controlled for baseline levels of study variables. The model was tested on a sample of 2549 patients in 15 residential substance use disorder treatment programs. Acceptance-based responding (ABR), social relationship quality (SRQ), treatment program alliance (TPA) and substance use-related impairment were assessed using interviews and self-report questionnaires. TPA predicted ABR and SRQ and, in turn, ABR predicted better 2-year and 5-year treatment outcomes. The baseline-controlled model accounted for 41% of the variance in outcome at 2-year follow-up and 28% of the variance in outcome at 5-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Patients from treatment programs with an affiliative relationship network are more likely to respond adaptively to internal states associated previously with substance use, develop constructive social relationships and achieve long-term treatment benefits.

Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects of nonmetallic materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Papazian, H.

1985-01-01

The properties of a number of nonmetallic materials were evaluated experimentally in simulated space environments in order to develop models for accelerated test methods useful for predicting such behavioral changes. Graphite-epoxy composites were exposed to thermal cycling. Adhesive foam tapes were subjected to a vacuum environment. Metal-matrix composites were tested for baseline data. Predictive modeling designed to include strength and aging effects on composites, polymeric films, and metals under such space conditions (including the atomic oxygen environment) is discussed. The Korel 8031-00 high strength adhesive foam tape was shown to be superior to the other two tested.

Prediction of Long-Term Outcomes in Young Adults with a History of Adolescent Alcohol-Related Hospitalization.

PubMed

Groß, Cornelius; Kraus, Ludwig; Piontek, Daniela; Reis, Olaf; Zimmermann, Ulrich S

2016-01-01

Empirical data concerning the long-term psychosocial development of adolescents admitted to inpatient treatment with alcohol intoxication (AIA) are lacking. The aim of this study was to identify the factors that, at the time of admission, predict future substance use, alcohol use disorders (AUD), mental health treatment, delinquency and life satisfaction. We identified 1603 cases of AIA treated between 2000 and 2007 in one of five pediatric departments in Germany. These former patients were invited to participate in a telephone interview. Medical records were retrospectively analyzed extracting potential variables predicting long-term outcomes. Interviews were conducted with 277 individuals, 5-13 [mean 8.3 (SD 2.3)] years after treatment, with a response rate of 22.7%; of these, 44.8% were female. Mean age at the interview was 24.4 (SD 2.2) years. Logistic and linear regression models revealed that being male, using illicit substances and truancy or runaway behavior in adolescence predicted binge drinking, alcohol dependence, use of illicit substances and poor general life satisfaction in young adulthood, explaining between 13 and 24% of the variance for the different outcome variables. This naturalistic study confirms that known risk factors for the development of AUD also apply to AIA. This finding facilitates targeted prevention efforts for those cases of AIA who need more than the standard brief intervention for aftercare. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Chaos and unpredictability in evolution.

PubMed

Doebeli, Michael; Ispolatov, Iaroslav

2014-05-01

The possibility of complicated dynamic behavior driven by nonlinear feedbacks in dynamical systems has revolutionized science in the latter part of the last century. Yet despite examples of complicated frequency dynamics, the possibility of long-term evolutionary chaos is rarely considered. The concept of "survival of the fittest" is central to much evolutionary thinking and embodies a perspective of evolution as a directional optimization process exhibiting simple, predictable dynamics. This perspective is adequate for simple scenarios, when frequency-independent selection acts on scalar phenotypes. However, in most organisms many phenotypic properties combine in complicated ways to determine ecological interactions, and hence frequency-dependent selection. Therefore, it is natural to consider models for evolutionary dynamics generated by frequency-dependent selection acting simultaneously on many different phenotypes. Here we show that complicated, chaotic dynamics of long-term evolutionary trajectories in phenotype space is very common in a large class of such models when the dimension of phenotype space is large, and when there are selective interactions between the phenotypic components. Our results suggest that the perspective of evolution as a process with simple, predictable dynamics covers only a small fragment of long-term evolution. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

An empirical approach to predicting long term behavior of metal particle based recording media

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hadad, Allan S.

1991-01-01

Alpha iron particles used for magnetic recording are prepared through a series of dehydration and reduction steps of alpha-Fe2O3-H2O resulting in acicular, polycrystalline, body centered cubic (bcc) alpha-Fe particles that are single magnetic domains. Since fine iron particles are pyrophoric by nature, stabilization processes had to be developed in order for iron particles to be considered as a viable recording medium for long term archival (i.e., 25+ years) information storage. The primary means of establishing stability is through passivation or controlled oxidation of the iron particle's surface. Since iron particles used for magnetic recording are small, additional oxidation has a direct impact on performance especially where archival storage of recorded information for long periods of time is important. Further stabilization chemistry/processes had to be developed to guarantee that iron particles could be considered as a viable long term recording medium. In an effort to retard the diffusion of iron ions through the oxide layer, other elements such as silicon, aluminum, and chromium have been added to the base iron to promote more dense scale formation or to alleviate some of the non-stoichiometric behavior of the oxide or both. The presence of water vapor has been shown to disrupt the passive layer, subsequently increasing the oxidation rate of the iron. A study was undertaken to examine the degradation in magnetic properties as a function of both temperature and humidity on silicon-containing iron particles between 50-120 deg C and 3-89 percent relative humidity. The methodology to which experimental data was collected and analyzed leading to predictive capability is discussed.

Preadoption adversity and long-term clinical-range behavior problems in adopted Chinese girls.

PubMed

Tan, Tony Xing; Camras, Linda A; Kim, Eun Sook

2016-04-01

In this study, we report findings on the role of preadoption adversity on long-term clinical-range problems in adopted Chinese girls. Four waves (2005, 2007, 2009 and 2011) of problem behavior data on 1,223 adopted Chinese girls (M = 4.86 years, SD = 2.82 in 2005) were collected from the adoptive mothers with the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL). At Wave 1 (2005), data on the following indicators of preadoption adversity was collected: age at adoption, physical signs/symptoms (e.g., sores) of preadoption adversity, developmental delays at arrival, refusal/avoidance behaviors and crying/clinging behaviors toward adoptive parents during the first 3 weeks of adoption. We found that the percentage of clinical-range internalizing problems was 11.1%, 16.5%, 11.3%, and 16.1% at Wave 1, Wave 2, Wave 3, and Wave 4, respectively; the corresponding percentage of clinical-range externalizing problems was 8.4%, 10.5%, 8.4% and 9.9% respectively; and the corresponding percentage of clinical-range total CBCL problems was 9.3%, 13.0%, 9.8% and 12.6% respectively. Analyses with Mplus showed that controlling for demographic variables, indicators of preadoption adversity, except age at adoption, increased the odds for clinical-range behavior problems. Longitudinal path models revealed that controlling for demographic variables and the children's adjustment status in the previous wave, refusal/avoidance remained significant in predicting clinical-range internalizing, externalizing and total CBCL problems at Wave 2, delays at arrival and signs/symptoms were significant in predicting clinical-range internalizing problems at Wave 3. Overall, adoptees with clinical-range CBCL problems in earlier waves were 9-28 times as likely to show clinical-range CBCL problems in subsequent waves. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Corticosterone stress response shows long-term repeatability and links to personality in free-living Nazca boobies.

PubMed

Grace, Jacquelyn K; Anderson, David J

2014-11-01

The concept of "coping styles", or consistently different responses to stressors, is of broad interest in behavioral ecology and biomedicine. Two critical predictions of this concept are individual consistency of neurophysiological and behavioral responses (relative to population variability) and a negative relationship between aggression/proactivity and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis reactivity. Recent studies failed to provide strong support for these predictions, especially outside of strictly controlled conditions, and long-term measures to test the first prediction are rare. Here, we demonstrate individual repeatability across 2-3years of maximum circulating corticosterone concentration [CORT] and area under the [CORT] response curve (AUCI) during a standard capture-restraint test in wild, free-living adult Nazca boobies (Sula granti). We also show that the stress response predicts the personality traits aggression and anxiety in these birds (measured in the wild); however, the strength of these results was weak. Maximum [CORT] and AUCI showed higher repeatability between years than baseline [CORT]. After controlling breeding status, sex, mass, date sampled, and their interactions, baseline [CORT] was most closely related to personality traits, followed by AUCI, and then maximum [CORT]. The direction of these relationships depended on whether the testing context was social or non-social. [CORT] parameters had little to no relationship with cross-context plasticity in personality traits. Our results generally affirm two critical predictions of coping styles, but match the emerging trend that these relationships are weak in the wild, and may depend on testing context. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Moisture-induced phase separation and recrystallization in amorphous solid dispersions.

PubMed

Luebbert, Christian; Sadowski, Gabriele

2017-10-30

Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) are often dissolved in polymeric matrices to control the gastrointestinal dissolution and to stabilize the amorphous state of the API. During the pharmaceutical development of new formulations, stability studies via storage at certain temperature and relative humidity (RH) have to be carried out to verify the long-term thermodynamic stability of these formulations against unwanted recrystallization and moisture-induced amorphous-amorphous phase separation (MIAPS). This study focuses on predicting the MIAPS of API/polymer formulations at elevated RH. In a first step, the phase behavior of water-free formulations of ibuprofen (IBU) and felodipine (FEL) combined with the polymers poly(vinyl pyrrolidone) (PVP), poly(vinyl acetate) (PVAC) and poly (vinyl pyrrolidone-co-vinyl acetate) (PVPVA64) was determined experimentally by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The phase behavior of these water-free formulations was modeled using the Perturbed-Chain Statistical Associating Fluid Theory (PC-SAFT). Based on this, the API solubility and MIAPS in the above-mentioned formulations at humid conditions was predicted in perfect agreement with the results of two-year lasting stability studies at 25°C/0% RH and 40°C/75% RH. MIAPS was predicted and also experimentally found for the FEL/PVP, FEL/PVPVA64 and IBU/PVP formulations, whereas MIAPS was neither predicted nor measured for the IBU/PVPVA64 system and PVAC-containing formulations. It was thus shown that the results of time-consuming long-term stability tests can be correctly predicted via thermodynamic modeling with PC-SAFT. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effects of prosocial video games on prosocial behaviors: international evidence from correlational, longitudinal, and experimental studies.

PubMed

Gentile, Douglas A; Anderson, Craig A; Yukawa, Shintaro; Ihori, Nobuko; Saleem, Muniba; Ming, Lim Kam; Shibuya, Akiko; Liau, Albert K; Khoo, Angeline; Bushman, Brad J; Rowell Huesmann, L; Sakamoto, Akira

2009-06-01

Although dozens of studies have documented a relationship between violent video games and aggressive behaviors, very little attention has been paid to potential effects of prosocial games. Theoretically, games in which game characters help and support each other in nonviolent ways should increase both short-term and long-term prosocial behaviors. We report three studies conducted in three countries with three age groups to test this hypothesis. In the correlational study, Singaporean middle-school students who played more prosocial games behaved more prosocially. In the two longitudinal samples of Japanese children and adolescents, prosocial game play predicted later increases in prosocial behavior. In the experimental study, U.S. undergraduates randomly assigned to play prosocial games behaved more prosocially toward another student. These similar results across different methodologies, ages, and cultures provide robust evidence of a prosocial game content effect, and they provide support for the General Learning Model.

The Effects of Prosocial Video Games on Prosocial Behaviors: International Evidence from Correlational, Longitudinal, and Experimental Studies

PubMed Central

Gentile, Douglas A.; Anderson, Craig A.; Yukawa, Shintaro; Ihori, Nobuko; Saleem, Muniba; Ming, Lim Kam; Shibuya, Akiko; Liau, Albert K.; Khoo, Angeline; Bushman, Brad J.; Huesmann, L. Rowell; Sakamoto, Akira

2009-01-01

Although dozens of studies have documented a relation between violent video games and aggressive behaviors, very little attention has been paid to potential effects of prosocial games. Theoretically, games in which game characters help and support each other in nonviolent ways should increase both short-term and long-term prosocial behaviors. We report three studies conducted in three countries with three age groups to test this hypothesis. In the correlational study, Singaporean middle-school students who played more prosocial games behaved more prosocially. In the two longitudinal samples of Japanese children and adolescents, prosocial game play predicted later increases in prosocial behavior. In the experimental study, U.S. undergraduates randomly assigned to play prosocial games behaved more prosocially toward another student. These similar results across different methodologies, ages, and cultures provide robust evidence a prosocial game content effect, and provide support for the General Learning Model. PMID:19321812

Opioid Attentional Bias and Cue-Elicited Craving Predict Future Risk of Prescription Opioid Misuse Among Chronic Pain Patients*

PubMed Central

Garland, Eric L.; Howard, Matthew O.

2014-01-01

Background Some chronic pain patients receiving long-term opioid analgesic pharmacotherapy are at risk for misusing opioids. Like other addictive behaviors, risk of opioid misuse may be signaled by an attentional bias (AB) towards drug-related cues. The purpose of this study was to examine opioid AB as a potential predictor of opioid misuse among chronic pain patients following behavioral treatment. Methods Chronic pain patients taking long-term opioid analgesics (N = 47) completed a dot probe task designed to assess opioid AB, as well as self-report measures of opioid misuse and pain severity, and then participated in behavioral treatment. Regression analyses examined opioid AB and cue-elicited craving as predictors of opioid misuse at 3-months posttreatment follow-up. Results Patients who scored high on a measure of opioid misuse risk following treatment exhibited significantly greater opioid AB scores than patients at low risk for opioid misuse. Opioid AB for 200 ms cues and cue-elicited craving significantly predicted opioid misuse risk 20 weeks later, even after controlling for pre-treatment opioid dependence diagnosis, opioid misuse, and pain severity (Model R2 = .50). Conclusion Biased initial attentional orienting to prescription opioid cues and cue-elicited craving may reliably signal future opioid misuse risk following treatment. These measures may therefore provide potential prognostic indicators of treatment outcome. PMID:25282309

Beyond abuse: the association among parenting style, abdominal pain, and somatization in IBS patients.

PubMed

Lackner, Jeffrey M; Gudleski, Gregory D; Blanchard, Edward B

2004-01-01

This study assessed the relative strength of the association between abuse, negative parenting style, and somatization in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) patients. Drawing from preclinical stress physiology and abuse research identifying the family social climate as a frequently stronger and independent determinant of long-term health effects than abuse-specific variables, we predicted that negative parenting behaviors would more strongly correlate with somatization than abuse. Subjects were 81 consecutively evaluated patients, who at baseline underwent psychological testing, measuring perceived parental style, abuse history, somatization, and pain. Although abuse correlated with maternal and paternal rejection, abuse was not associated with somatization. Higher levels of rejection and/or hostility among fathers (not mothers) were more strongly correlated with somatization than was abuse. Further, paternal parenting behaviors were more predictive of somatization than abuse, age, and gender. The lack of an association between abuse and somatization is discussed in light of limitations of biopsychosocial IBS models, whose strong focus on "pathological stressors" (e.g., abuse, trauma) as risk factors may overlook the importance of "less extreme" parenting variables in influencing somatic complaints. The relationship between parenting and somatization is discussed in the context of broader behavioral science research linking disruptions in the quality of parenting to dramatic and long-term changes in patterns of stress reactivity and brain abnormalities seen in IBS patients.

Reciprocal Relations Between Parents’ Physical Discipline and Children’s Externalizing Behavior During Middle Childhood and Adolescence

PubMed Central

Lansford, Jennifer E.; Criss, Michael M.; Laird, Robert D.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Pettit, Gregory S.; Bates, John E.; Dodge, Kenneth A.

2010-01-01

Using data from two long-term longitudinal projects, we investigated reciprocal relations between maternal reports of physical discipline and teacher and self ratings of child externalizing behavior, accounting for continuity in both discipline and externalizing over time. In Study 1, which followed a community sample of 562 boys and girls from age 6–9, high levels of physical discipline in a given year predicted high levels of externalizing behavior in the next year, and externalizing behavior in a given year predicted high levels of physical discipline in the next year. In Study 2, which followed an independent sample of 290 lower income, higher risk boys from age 10–15, mother-reported physical discipline in a given year predicted child ratings of antisocial behavior in the next year, but child antisocial behavior in a given year did not predict parents’ use of physical discipline in the next year. In neither sample was there evidence that associations between physical discipline and child externalizing changed as the child aged, and findings were not moderated by gender, race, socioeconomic status, or the severity of the physical discipline. Implications for the reciprocal nature of the socialization process and the risks associated with physical discipline are discussed. PMID:21262050

Reciprocal relations between parents' physical discipline and children's externalizing behavior during middle childhood and adolescence.

PubMed

Lansford, Jennifer E; Criss, Michael M; Laird, Robert D; Shaw, Daniel S; Pettit, Gregory S; Bates, John E; Dodge, Kenneth A

2011-02-01

Using data from two long-term longitudinal projects, we investigated reciprocal relations between maternal reports of physical discipline and teacher and self-ratings of child externalizing behavior, accounting for continuity in both discipline and externalizing over time. In Study 1, which followed a community sample of 562 boys and girls from age 6 to 9, high levels of physical discipline in a given year predicted high levels of externalizing behavior in the next year, and externalizing behavior in a given year predicted high levels of physical discipline in the next year. In Study 2, which followed an independent sample of 290 lower income, higher risk boys from age 10 to 15, mother-reported physical discipline in a given year predicted child ratings of antisocial behavior in the next year, but child antisocial behavior in a given year did not predict parents' use of physical discipline in the next year. In neither sample was there evidence that associations between physical discipline and child externalizing changed as the child aged, and findings were not moderated by gender, race, socioeconomic status, or the severity of the physical discipline. Implications for the reciprocal nature of the socialization process and the risks associated with physical discipline are discussed.

Dispositional optimism as predictor of outcome in short- and long-term psychotherapy.

PubMed

Heinonen, Erkki; Heiskanen, Tiia; Lindfors, Olavi; Härkäpää, Kristiina; Knekt, Paul

2017-09-01

Dispositional optimism predicts various beneficial outcomes in somatic health and treatment, but has been little studied in psychotherapy. This study investigated whether an optimistic disposition differentially predicts patients' ability to benefit from short-term versus long-term psychotherapy. A total of 326 adult outpatients with mood and/or anxiety disorder were randomized into short-term (solution-focused or short-term psychodynamic) or long-term psychodynamic therapy and followed up for 3 years. Dispositional optimism was assessed by patients at baseline with the self-rated Life Orientation Test (LOT) questionnaire. Outcome was assessed at baseline and seven times during the follow-up, in terms of depressive (BDI, HDRS), anxiety (SCL-90-ANX, HARS), and general psychiatric symptoms (SCL-90-GSI), all seven follow-up points including patients' self-reports and three including interview-based measures. Lower dispositional optimism predicted faster symptom reduction in short-term than in long-term psychotherapy. Higher optimism predicted equally rapid and eventually greater benefits in long-term, as compared to short-term, psychotherapy. Weaker optimism appeared to predict sustenance of problems early in long-term therapy. Stronger optimism seems to best facilitate engaging in and benefiting from a long-term therapy process. Closer research might clarify the psychological processes responsible for these effects and help fine-tune both briefer and longer interventions to optimize treatment effectiveness for particular patients and their psychological qualities. Weaker dispositional optimism does not appear to inhibit brief therapy from effecting symptomatic recovery. Patients with weaker optimism do not seem to gain added benefits from long-term therapy, but instead may be susceptible to prolonged psychiatric symptoms in the early stages of long-term therapy. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Electrochemical Corrosion Studies for Modeling Metallic Waste Form Release Rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Poineau, Frederic; Tamalis, Dimitri

The isotope 99Tc is an important fission product generated from nuclear power production. Because of its long half-life (t 1/2 = 2.13 ∙ 10 5 years) and beta-radiotoxicity (β⁻ = 292 keV), it is a major concern in the long-term management of spent nuclear fuel. In the spent nuclear fuel, Tc is present as an alloy with Mo, Ru, Rh, and Pd called the epsilon-phase, the relative amount of which increases with fuel burn-up. In some separation schemes for spent nuclear fuel, Tc would be separated from the spent fuel and disposed of in a durable waste form. Technetium wastemore » forms under consideration include metallic alloys, oxide ceramics and borosilicate glass. In the development of a metallic waste form, after separation from the spent fuel, Tc would be converted to the metal, incorporated into an alloy and the resulting waste form stored in a repository. Metallic alloys under consideration include Tc–Zr alloys, Tc–stainless steel alloys and Tc–Inconel alloys (Inconel is an alloy of Ni, Cr and iron which is resistant to corrosion). To predict the long-term behavior of the metallic Tc waste form, understanding the corrosion properties of Tc metal and Tc alloys in various chemical environments is needed, but efforts to model the behavior of Tc metallic alloys are limited. One parameter that should also be considered in predicting the long-term behavior of the Tc waste form is the ingrowth of stable Ru that occurs from the radioactive decay of 99Tc ( 99Tc → 99Ru + β⁻). After a geological period of time, significant amounts of Ru will be present in the Tc and may affect its corrosion properties. Studying the effect of Ru on the corrosion behavior of Tc is also of importance. In this context, we studied the electrochemical behavior of Tc metal, Tc-Ni alloys (to model Tc-Inconel alloy) and Tc-Ru alloys in acidic media. The study of Tc-U alloys has also been performed in order to better understand the nature of Tc in metallic spent fuel. Computational modeling and simulations were performed to shed light on experimental results and explain structural and kinetics trends.« less

SBUV/2 Long-Term Measurements of Solar Spectral Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

1997-01-01

The NOAA-11 SBUV/2 spectral solar data have been corrected for long-term instrument changes to produce a 5.5 year data record during solar cycle 22 (December 1988 - October 1994). Residual drifts in the data at long wavelengths are +/- 1% or less. At 200-205 nm, where solar variations drive stratospheric photochemistry, these data indicate long-term solar changes of 5-7% from the maximum of Cycle 22 in April 1991 through the end of the NOAA-11 data record. Comparisons of NOAA-11 data with UARS SUSIM and SOLSTICE for the period October 1991 - October 1994, when all 3 instruments were operating simultaneously, show that the observed long-term variations in 200-205 nm irradiance agree to within 2%. This result is consistent with predictions from the Mg-2 proxy index. The SBUV/2 instruments represent a valuable resource for long-term solar UV activity studies because of their overlapping data records. In addition to the NOAA-11 data presented here, the NOAA-9 SBUV/2 instrument began taking data in March 1985 and is still operating, providing a complete record of Cycle 22 behavior from a single instrument. Three additional SBUV/2 instruments are scheduled to be launched between 1997 and 2003, which should permit full coverage of solar cycle 23.

Solar Cycle Response and Long-Term Trends in the Mesospheric Metal Layers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dawkins, E. C. M.; Plane, J. M. C.; Chipperfield, M.; Feng, W.; Marsh, D. R.; Hoffner, J.; Janches, D.

2016-01-01

The meteoric metal layers (Na, Fe, and K) which form as a result of the ablation of incoming meteors act as unique tracers for chemical and dynamical processes that occur within the upper mesosphere lower thermosphere region. In this work, we examine whether these metal layers are sensitive Fe indicators of decadal long-term changes within the upper atmosphere. Output from a whole-atmosphere climate model is used to assess the response of the Na, K, and Fe layers across a 50 year period (1955-2005). At short timescales, the K layer has previously been shown to exhibit a very different seasonal behavior compared to the other metals. Here we show that this unusual behavior is also exhibited at longer time scales (both the 11 year solar cycle and 50 year periods), where K displays a much more pronounced response to atmospheric temperature changes than either Na or Fe. The contrasting solar cycle behavior of the K and Na layers predicted by the model is confirmed using satellite and lidar observations for the period 2004-2013.

Liquid crystalline phase behavior of protein fibers in water: experiments versus theory.

PubMed

Jung, Jin-Mi; Mezzenga, Raffaele

2010-01-05

We have developed a new method allowing the study of the thermodynamic phase behavior of mesoscopic colloidal systems consisting of amyloid protein fibers in water, obtained by heat denaturation and aggregation of beta-lactoglobulin, a dairy protein. The fibers have a cross section of about 5.2 nm and two groups of polydisperse contour lengths: (i) long fibers of 1-20 microm, showing semiflexible behavior, and (ii) short rods of 100-200 nm long, obtained by cutting the long fibers via high-pressure homogenization. At pH 2 without salt, these fibers are highly charged and stable in water. We have studied the isotropic-nematic phase transition for both systems and compared our results with the theoretical values predicted by Onsager's theory. The experimentally measured isotropic-nematic phase transition was found to occur at 0.4% and at 3% for the long and short fibers, respectively. For both systems, this phase transition occurs at concentrations more than 1 order of magnitude lower than what is expected based on Onsager's theory. Moreover, at low enough pH, no intermediate biphasic region was observed between the isotropic phase and the nematic phase. The phase diagrams of both systems (pH vs concentration) showed similar, yet complex and rich, phase behavior. We discuss the possible physical fundamentals ruling the phase diagram as well as the discrepancy we observe for the isotropic-nematic phase transition between our experimental results and the predicted theoretical results. Our work highlights that systems formed by water-amyloid protein fibers are way too complex to be understood based solely on Onsager's theories. Experimental results are revisited in terms of the Flory's theory (1956) for suspensions of rods, which allows accounting for rod-solvent hydrophobic interactions. This theoretical approach allows explaining, on a semiquantitative basis, most of the discrepancies observed between the experimental results and Onsager's predictions. The sources of protein fibers complex colloidal behavior are analyzed and discussed at length.

A chaotic-dynamical conceptual model to describe fluid flow and contaminant transport in a fractured vadose zone. 1997 progress report and presentations at the annual meeting, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, December 3--4, 1997

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faybishenko, B.; Doughty, C.; Geller, J.

1998-07-01

Understanding subsurface flow and transport processes is critical for effective assessment, decision-making, and remediation activities for contaminated sites. However, for fluid flow and contaminant transport through fractured vadose zones, traditional hydrogeological approaches are often found to be inadequate. In this project, the authors examine flow and transport through a fractured vadose zone as a deterministic chaotic dynamical process, and develop a model of it in these terms. Initially, the authors examine separately the geometric model of fractured rock and the flow dynamics model needed to describe chaotic behavior. Ultimately they will put the geometry and flow dynamics together to developmore » a chaotic-dynamical model of flow and transport in a fractured vadose zone. They investigate water flow and contaminant transport on several scales, ranging from small-scale laboratory experiments in fracture replicas and fractured cores, to field experiments conducted in a single exposed fracture at a basalt outcrop, and finally to a ponded infiltration test using a pond of 7 by 8 m. In the field experiments, they measure the time-variation of water flux, moisture content, and hydraulic head at various locations, as well as the total inflow rate to the subsurface. Such variations reflect the changes in the geometry and physics of water flow that display chaotic behavior, which they try to reconstruct using the data obtained. In the analysis of experimental data, a chaotic model can be used to predict the long-term bounds on fluid flow and transport behavior, known as the attractor of the system, and to examine the limits of short-term predictability within these bounds. This approach is especially well suited to the need for short-term predictions to support remediation decisions and long-term bounding studies. View-graphs from ten presentations made at the annual meeting held December 3--4, 1997 are included in an appendix to this report.« less

Dietary and body weight control: therapeutic education, motivational interviewing and cognitive-behavioral approaches for long-term weight loss maintenance.

PubMed

Golay, Alain

2006-01-01

A diet always induces weight loss in the short term. The loss does not depend on the dietary composition but rather on the caloric deficit. However, a drastic diet often induces binge eating disorders and can lead to a weight gain in the long term. A cognitive-behavioral-nutritional approach allows lasting weight loss and best results with low fat diets in the long term. Therapeutic education is a patient-centered humanistic approach which allows patients to be actors in their own treatment and own diet to improve their success in losing weight and their quality of life. Motivational interviewing and cognitive-behavioral approaches are perfect complements to therapeutic education for long-term weight loss maintenance. Finally, the best diet is the one that the patient can follow in the long term.

The Theory of Planned Behavior as It Predicts Potential Intention to Seek Mental Health Services for Depression among College Students

PubMed Central

Bohon, Lisa M.; Cotter, Kelly A.; Kravitz, Richard L.; Cello, Philip C.; Garcia, Erik Fernandez y

2016-01-01

Between 9.5% and 31.3% of College students suffer from depression1, 2. Universities need to understand the factors that relate to care-seeking behavior. Objective Across 3 studies, to relate attitude, social norms, and perceived behavioral control to intention to seek mental health services, and to investigate barriers to care-seeking. Participants University college students (N = 845, 64% female, 26% male, and 10% unspecified). Method New measures were created in studies 1 and 2, and were examined using structural equation modeling in study 3. Results Partially consistent with the Theory of Planned Behavior3, a model with an excellent fit revealed that more positive attitudes about care and higher perceived behavioral control directly predicted higher intention to seek mental health services. Conclusions Educating college students about mental health disorders and treatments, enhancing knowledge about available services, and addressing limited access to long-term care might improve treatment rates for students suffering from depression. PMID:27386898

Observed Macro- and Micro-Level Parenting Behaviors During Preadolescent Family Interactions as Predictors of Adjustment in Emerging Adults With and Without Spina Bifida

PubMed Central

Amaro, Christina M.; Devine, Katie A.; Psihogios, Alexandra M.; Murphy, Lexa K.; Holmbeck, Grayson N.

2015-01-01

Objective To examine observed autonomy-promoting and -inhibiting parenting behaviors during preadolescence as predictors of adjustment outcomes in emerging adults with and without spina bifida (SB). Methods Demographic and videotaped interaction data were collected from families with 8/9-year-old children with SB (n = 68) and a matched group of typically developing youth (n = 68). Observed interaction data were coded with macro- and micro-coding schemes. Measures of emerging adulthood adjustment were collected 10 years later (ages 18/19 years; n = 50 and n = 60 for SB and comparison groups, respectively). Results Autonomy-promoting (behavioral control, autonomy-relatedness) and -inhibiting (psychological control) observed preadolescent parenting behaviors prospectively predicted emerging adulthood adjustment, particularly within educational, social, and emotional domains. Interestingly, high parent undermining of relatedness predicted better educational and social adjustment in the SB sample. Conclusions Parenting behaviors related to autonomy have long-term consequences for adjustment in emerging adults with and without SB. PMID:24864277

Short-term and long-term effects of violent media on aggression in children and adults.

PubMed

Bushman, Brad J; Huesmann, L Rowell

2006-04-01

To test whether the results of the accumulated studies on media violence and aggressive behavior are consistent with the theories that have evolved to explain the effects. We tested for the existence of both short-term and long-term effects for aggressive behavior. We also tested the theory-driven hypothesis that short-term effects should be greater for adults and long-term effects should be greater for children. Meta-analysis. Children younger than 18 years and adults. Violent media, including TV, movies, video games, music, and comic books. Measures of aggressive behavior, aggressive thoughts, angry feelings, physiological arousal (eg, heart rate, blood pressure), and helping behavior. Effect size estimates were combined using meta-analytic procedures. As expected, the short-term effects of violent media were greater for adults than for children whereas the long-term effects were greater for children than for adults. The results also showed that there were overall modest but significant effect sizes for exposure to media violence on aggressive behaviors, aggressive thoughts, angry feelings, arousal levels, and helping behavior. The results are consistent with the theory that short-term effects are mostly due to the priming of existing well-encoded scripts, schemas, or beliefs, which adults have had more time to encode. In contrast, long-term effects require the learning (encoding) of scripts, schemas, or beliefs. Children can encode new scripts, schemas, and beliefs via observational learning with less interference and effort than adults.

Evidence from a rare case study for Hebbian-like changes in structural connectivity induced by long-term deep brain stimulation.

PubMed

van Hartevelt, Tim J; Cabral, Joana; Møller, Arne; FitzGerald, James J; Green, Alexander L; Aziz, Tipu Z; Deco, Gustavo; Kringelbach, Morten L

2015-01-01

It is unclear whether Hebbian-like learning occurs at the level of long-range white matter connections in humans, i.e., where measurable changes in structural connectivity (SC) are correlated with changes in functional connectivity. However, the behavioral changes observed after deep brain stimulation (DBS) suggest the existence of such Hebbian-like mechanisms occurring at the structural level with functional consequences. In this rare case study, we obtained the full network of white matter connections of one patient with Parkinson's disease (PD) before and after long-term DBS and combined it with a computational model of ongoing activity to investigate the effects of DBS-induced long-term structural changes. The results show that the long-term effects of DBS on resting-state functional connectivity is best obtained in the computational model by changing the structural weights from the subthalamic nucleus (STN) to the putamen and the thalamus in a Hebbian-like manner. Moreover, long-term DBS also significantly changed the SC towards normality in terms of model-based measures of segregation and integration of information processing, two key concepts of brain organization. This novel approach using computational models to model the effects of Hebbian-like changes in SC allowed us to causally identify the possible underlying neural mechanisms of long-term DBS using rare case study data. In time, this could help predict the efficacy of individual DBS targeting and identify novel DBS targets.

Teacher and Teaching Effects on Students' Attitudes and Behaviors.

PubMed

Blazar, David; Kraft, Matthew A

2017-03-01

Research has focused predominantly on how teachers affect students' achievement on tests despite evidence that a broad range of attitudes and behaviors are equally important to their long-term success. We find that upper-elementary teachers have large effects on self-reported measures of students' self-efficacy in math, and happiness and behavior in class. Students' attitudes and behaviors are predicted by teaching practices most proximal to these measures, including teachers' emotional support and classroom organization. However, teachers who are effective at improving test scores often are not equally effective at improving students' attitudes and behaviors. These findings lend empirical evidence to well-established theory on the multidimensional nature of teaching and the need to identify strategies for improving the full range of teachers' skills.

Accelerated/abbreviated test methods of the low-cost silicon solar array project. Study 4, task 3: Encapsulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolyer, J. M.; Mann, N. R.

1977-01-01

Methods of accelerated and abbreviated testing were developed and applied to solar cell encapsulants. These encapsulants must provide protection for as long as 20 years outdoors at different locations within the United States. Consequently, encapsulants were exposed for increasing periods of time to the inherent climatic variables of temperature, humidity, and solar flux. Property changes in the encapsulants were observed. The goal was to predict long term behavior of encapsulants based upon experimental data obtained over relatively short test periods.

Pressurization of a Flightweight, Liquid Hydrogen Tank: Evaporation and Condensation at a Liquid Vapor Interface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, Mark E.

2017-01-01

Evaporation and condensation at a liquidvapor interface is important for long-term, in-space cryogenic propellant storage. Yet the current understanding of interfacial physics does not predict behavior or evaporation condensation rates. The proposed paper will present a physical model, based on the 1-D Heat equation and Schrages equation which demonstrates thin thermal layers at the fluidvapor interface.

Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change with the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Q. B.; Wang, Q. J.; Lei, M. F.

2015-09-01

It is known that the accuracies of medium- and long-term prediction of changes of length of day (LOD) based on the combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) decrease gradually. The leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model is more accurate and stable in medium- and long-term prediction, therefore it is used to forecast the LOD changes in this work. Then the LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) is used to compare the effectiveness of the LSAR and traditional AR methods. The predicted series resulted from the two models show that the prediction accuracy with the LSAR model is better than that from AR model in medium- and long-term prediction.

The long-run dynamic relationship between exchange rate and its attention index: Based on DCCA and TOP method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xuan; Guo, Kun; Lu, Xiaolin

2016-07-01

The behavior information of financial market plays a more and more important role in modern economic system. The behavior information reflected in INTERNET search data has already been used in short-term prediction for exchange rate, stock market return, house price and so on. However, the long-run relationship between behavior information and financial market fluctuation has not been studied systematically. Further, most traditional statistic methods and econometric models could not catch the dynamic and non-linear relationship. An attention index of CNY/USD exchange rate is constructed based on search data from 360 search engine of China in this paper. Then the DCCA and Thermal Optimal Path methods are used to explore the long-run dynamic relationship between CNY/USD exchange rate and the corresponding attention index. The results show that the significant interdependency exists and the change of exchange rate is 1-2 days lag behind the attention index.

Fractal and chaotic laws on seismic dissipated energy in an energy system of engineering structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Yu-Hong; Nie, Yong-An; Yan, Zong-Da; Wu, Guo-You

1998-09-01

Fractal and chaotic laws of engineering structures are discussed in this paper, it means that the intrinsic essences and laws on dynamic systems which are made from seismic dissipated energy intensity E d and intensity of seismic dissipated energy moment I e are analyzed. Based on the intrinsic characters of chaotic and fractal dynamic system of E d and I e, three kinds of approximate dynamic models are rebuilt one by one: index autoregressive model, threshold autoregressive model and local-approximate autoregressive model. The innate laws, essences and systematic error of evolutional behavior I e are explained over all, the short-term behavior predictability and long-term behavior probability of which are analyzed in the end. That may be valuable for earthquake-resistant theory and analysis method in practical engineering structures.

Influence of punishment, emotional rejection, child abuse, and broken home on aggression in adolescence: an examination of aggressive adolescents in Germany.

PubMed

Barnow, S; Lucht, M; Freyberger, H J

2001-01-01

The results of this study provide evidence for the importance of psychosocial risks in childhood for aggressive behavior in adolescence. This study demonstrated that aggressive adolescents differed from a nonaggressive control group in an increased exposure to prior psychotraumatic events, such as sexual abuse (tendency), physical abuse, and broken homes. However, in predicting later aggressive behavior, long-term and chronically effective negative living conditions seem of greater importance. Parenting behavior which includes harsh punishment and emotional rejection as well as separation of the parents early in life are particularly important factors. Whereas aggressive girls do not differ from the nonaggressive control group in terms of self-reported mental health, the aggressive boys reported more attention deficits, depression, anxiety, delinquency, and social problems. Copyright 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel

Evaluation and prediction of long term space environmental effects on non-metallic materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepic, J. A.

1980-01-01

The effects of prolonged spacecraft materials were determined and the results compared with predicted behavior. The adhesion and dielectric properties of poly-thermaleze and therm-amid magnet wire insulation were studied. The tensile properties of Lexan, polyurethane, polyethelyne, lucite, and nylon were studied well as the flexure and tensile characteristic of Adlock 851, a phenolic laminate. The volume resistivity of Cho-seal, a conductive elastomer was also a examined. Tables show the time exposed at thermal vacuum, and the high, low, and average MPA and KSI.

Reduced tyrosine kinase inhibitor dose is predicted to be as effective as standard dose in chronic myeloid leukemia: A simulation study based on phase 3 trial data.

PubMed

Fassoni, Artur C; Baldow, Christoph; Roeder, Ingo; Glauche, Ingmar

2018-06-28

Continuing tyrosine kinase inhibitor mediated targeting of the BCR-ABL1 oncoprotein is the standard therapy for chronic myeloid leukemia and allows for a sustained disease control in the majority of patients. While therapy cessation for patients appeared as a safe option for about half of the optimally responding patients, a systematic assessment of long-term tyrosine kinase inhibitor dose de-escalation is missing. We use a mathematical model to analyze and consistently describe biphasic treatment responses from tyrosine kinase inhibitor treated patients from two independent clinical phase-3 trials. Scale estimates reveal that drug efficiency determines the initial response while the long-term behavior is limited by the rare activation of leukemic stem cells. We use this mathematical framework to investigate the influence of different dosing regimens on the treatment outcome. We provide strong evidence suggesting that tyrosine kinase inhibitor dose de-escalation (at least 50%) does not lead to a reduction of long-term treatment efficiency for most patients, which have already achieved sustained remission, and maintains the secondary decline of BCR-ABL1 levels. We demonstrate that continuous BCR-ABL1 monitoring provides patient-specific predictions of an optimal reduced dose not decreasing the anti-leukemic effect on residual leukemic stem cells. Our results are consistent with the interim results of the DESTINY trial and provide clinically testable predictions. Our results suggest that dose halving should be considered as a long-term treatment option for well-responding chronic myeloid leukemia patients under continuing maintenance therapy with tyrosine kinase inhibitors. We emphasize the clinical potential of this approach to reduce treatment-related side-effects and therapy costs. Copyright © 2018, Ferrata Storti Foundation.

The work ability index and single-item question: associations with sick leave, symptoms, and health--a prospective study of women on long-term sick leave.

PubMed

Ahlstrom, Linda; Grimby-Ekman, Anna; Hagberg, Mats; Dellve, Lotta

2010-09-01

This study investigated the association between the work ability index (WAI) and the single-item question on work ability among women working in human service organizations (HSO) currently on long-term sick leave. It also examined the association between the WAI and the single-item question in relation to sick leave, symptoms, and health. Predictive values of the WAI, the changed WAI, the single-item question and the changed single-item question were investigated for degree of sick leave, symptoms, and health. This cohort study comprised 324 HSO female workers on long-term (>60 days) sick leave, with follow-ups at 6 and 12 months. Participants responded to questionnaires. Data on work ability, sick leave, health, and symptoms were analyzed with regard to associations and predictability. Spearman correlation and mixed-model analysis were performed for repeated measurements over time. The study showed a very strong association between the WAI and the single-item question among all participants. Both the WAI and the single-item question showed similar patterns of associations with sick leave, health, and symptoms. The predictive value for the degree of sick leave and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was strong for both the WAI and the single-item question, and slightly less strong for vitality, neck pain, both self-rated general and mental health, and behavioral and current stress. This study suggests that the single-item question on work ability could be used as a simple indicator for assessing the status and progress of work ability among women on long-term sick leave.

ZERODUR®: new stress corrosion data improve strength fatigue prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Peter; Kleer, Günter; Rist, Tobias

2015-09-01

The extremely low thermal expansion glass ceramic ZERODUR® finds more and more applications as sophisticated light weight structures with thin ribs or as thin shells. Quite often they will be subject to higher mechanical loads such as rocket launches or modulating wobbling vibrations. Designing such structures requires calculation methods and data taking into account their long term fatigue. With brittle materials fatigue is not only given by the material itself but to a high extent also by its surface condition and the environmental media especially humidity. This work extends the latest data and information gathered on the bending strength of ZERODUR® with new results concerning its long term behavior under tensile stress. The parameter needed for prediction calculations which combines the influences of time and environmental media is the stress corrosion constant n. Results of the past differ significantly from each other. In order to obtain consistent data the stress corrosion constant has been measured with the method comparing the breakage statistical distributions at different stress increase rates. For better significance the stress increase rate was varied over four orders of magnitude from 0.004 MPa/s to 40 MPa/s. Experiments were performed under normal humidity for long term earth bound applications and under nitrogen atmosphere as equivalent to dry environment occurring for example with telescopes in deserts and also equivalent to vacuum for space applications. As shown earlier the bending strength of diamond ground surfaces of ZERODUR® can be represented with a three parameter Weibull distribution. Predictions on the long term strength change of ZERODUR® structures under tensile stress are possible with reduced uncertainty if Weibull threshold strength values are considered and more reliable stress corrosion constant data are applied.

Low self-esteem during adolescence predicts poor health, criminal behavior, and limited economic prospects during adulthood.

PubMed

Trzesniewski, Kali H; Donnellan, M Brent; Moffitt, Terrie E; Robins, Richard W; Poulton, Richie; Caspi, Avshalom

2006-03-01

Using prospective data from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study birth cohort, the authors found that adolescents with low self-esteem had poorer mental and physical health, worse economic prospects, and higher levels of criminal behavior during adulthood, compared with adolescents with high self-esteem. The long-term consequences of self-esteem could not be explained by adolescent depression, gender, or socioeconomic status. Moreover, the findings held when the outcome variables were assessed using objective measures and informant reports; therefore, the findings cannot be explained by shared method variance in self-report data. The findings suggest that low self-esteem during adolescence predicts negative real-world consequences during adulthood. Copyright (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved.

Upregulation of CREB-mediated transcription enhances both short- and long-term memory.

PubMed

Suzuki, Akinobu; Fukushima, Hotaka; Mukawa, Takuya; Toyoda, Hiroki; Wu, Long-Jun; Zhao, Ming-Gao; Xu, Hui; Shang, Yuze; Endoh, Kengo; Iwamoto, Taku; Mamiya, Nori; Okano, Emiko; Hasegawa, Shunsuke; Mercaldo, Valentina; Zhang, Yue; Maeda, Ryouta; Ohta, Miho; Josselyn, Sheena A; Zhuo, Min; Kida, Satoshi

2011-06-15

Unraveling the mechanisms by which the molecular manipulation of genes of interest enhances cognitive function is important to establish genetic therapies for cognitive disorders. Although CREB is thought to positively regulate formation of long-term memory (LTM), gain-of-function effects of CREB remain poorly understood, especially at the behavioral level. To address this, we generated four lines of transgenic mice expressing dominant active CREB mutants (CREB-Y134F or CREB-DIEDML) in the forebrain that exhibited moderate upregulation of CREB activity. These transgenic lines improved not only LTM but also long-lasting long-term potentiation in the CA1 area in the hippocampus. However, we also observed enhanced short-term memory (STM) in contextual fear-conditioning and social recognition tasks. Enhanced LTM and STM could be dissociated behaviorally in these four lines of transgenic mice, suggesting that the underlying mechanism for enhanced STM and LTM are distinct. LTM enhancement seems to be attributable to the improvement of memory consolidation by the upregulation of CREB transcriptional activity, whereas higher basal levels of BDNF, a CREB target gene, predicted enhanced shorter-term memory. The importance of BDNF in STM was verified by microinfusing BDNF or BDNF inhibitors into the hippocampus of wild-type or transgenic mice. Additionally, increasing BDNF further enhanced LTM in one of the lines of transgenic mice that displayed a normal BDNF level but enhanced LTM, suggesting that upregulation of BDNF and CREB activity cooperatively enhances LTM formation. Our findings suggest that CREB positively regulates memory consolidation and affects memory performance by regulating BDNF expression.

Prediction of mechanical property loss in polyamide during immersion in sea water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Gac, Pierre Yves; Arhant, Mael; Le Gall, Maelenn; Burtin, Christian; Davies, Peter

2016-05-01

It is well known that the water absorption in polyamide leads to a large reduction in the mechanical properties of the polymer, which is induced by the plasticization of the amorphous phase. However, predicting such a loss in a marine environment is not straightforward, especially when thick samples are considered. This study presents a modeling study of the water absorption in polyamide 6 based on the free volume theory. Using this modeling coupled with a description of the stress yield changes with Tg, it is possible to predict the long term behavior of thick samples when immersed in sea water. Reliability of the prediction is checked by a comparison with experimental results.

Temperature and food mediate long-term thermotactic behavioral plasticity by association-independent mechanisms in C. elegans.

PubMed

Chi, Cynthia A; Clark, Damon A; Lee, Stella; Biron, David; Luo, Linjiao; Gabel, Christopher V; Brown, Jeffrey; Sengupta, Piali; Samuel, Aravinthan D T

2007-11-01

Thermotactic behavior in the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans exhibits long-term plasticity. On a spatial thermal gradient, C. elegans tracks isotherms near a remembered set-point (T(S)) corresponding to its previous cultivation temperature. When navigating at temperatures above its set-point (T>T(S)), C. elegans crawls down spatial thermal gradients towards the T(S) in what is called cryophilic movement. The T(S) retains plasticity in the adult stage and is reset by approximately 4 h of sustained exposure to a new temperature. Long-term plasticity in C. elegans thermotactic behavior has been proposed to represent an associative learning of specific temperatures conditioned in the presence or absence of bacterial food. Here, we use quantitative behavioral assays to define the temperature and food-dependent determinants of long-term plasticity in the different modes of thermotactic behavior. Under our experimental conditions, we find that starvation at a specific temperature neither disrupts T(S) resetting toward the starvation temperature nor induces learned avoidance of the starvation temperature. We find that prolonged starvation suppresses the cryophilic mode of thermotactic behavior. The hen-1 and tax-6 genes have been reported to affect associative learning between temperature and food-dependent cues. Under our experimental conditions, mutation in the hen-1 gene, which encodes a secreted protein with an LDL receptor motif, does not significantly affect thermotactic behavior or long-term plasticity. Mutation in the tax-6 calcineurin gene abolishes thermotactic behavior altogether. In summary, we do not find evidence that long-term plasticity requires association between temperature and the presence or absence of bacterial food.

Childhood bullying behavior and later psychiatric hospital and psychopharmacologic treatment: findings from the Finnish 1981 birth cohort study.

PubMed

Sourander, Andre; Ronning, John; Brunstein-Klomek, Anat; Gyllenberg, David; Kumpulainen, Kirsti; Niemelä, Solja; Helenius, Hans; Sillanmäki, Lauri; Ristkari, Terja; Tamminen, Tuula; Moilanen, Irma; Piha, Jorma; Almqvist, Fredrik

2009-09-01

No prospective population-based study examining predictive associations between childhood bullying behavior and long-term mental health outcomes in both males and females exists. To study predictive associations between bullying and victimization in childhood and later psychiatric hospital and psychopharmacologic treatment. Nationwide birth cohort study from age 8 to 24 years. Five thousand thirty-eight Finnish children born in 1981 with complete information about bullying and victimization at age 8 years from parents, teachers, and self-reports. National register-based lifetime information about psychiatric hospital treatments and psychopharmacologic medication prescriptions. When controlled for psychopathology score, frequent victim status at age 8 years among females independently predicted psychiatric hospital treatment and use of antipsychotic, antidepressant, and anxiolytic drugs. Among males, frequent bully-victim and bully-only statuses predicted use of antidepressant and anxiolytic drugs. Frequent bully-victim status among males also predicted psychiatric hospital treatment and use of antipsychotics. However, when the analysis was controlled with total psychopathology score at age 8 years, frequent bully, victim, or bully-victim status did not predict any psychiatric outcomes among males. Boys and girls who display frequent bullying behavior should be evaluated for possible psychiatric problems, as bullying behaviors in concert with psychiatric symptoms are early markers of risk of psychiatric outcome. Among females, frequent childhood victimization predicts later psychiatric problems irrespective of psychiatric problems at baseline.

Childrearing Violence and Child Adjustment Following Exposure to Kenyan Post-election Violence

PubMed Central

Skinner, Ann T.; Oburu, Paul; Lansford, Jennifer E.; Bacchini, Dario

2014-01-01

Objective This study examines parents' and children's exposure to short-term political violence and the relation between childrearing violence and child adjustment following widespread violence that erupted in Kisumu, Kenya after the disputed presidential election in December 2007. Method Mothers of 100 Luo children (mean age = 8.46 years, 61% female) reported on their own use of childrearing violence at Time 1, approximately 4 months after the disputed election, and again at Times 2 (n = 95) and 3 (n = 95), approximately 12 and 24 months later, respectively. At Time 2, mothers reported about post-election violence directed at them and about their children's exposure to post-election violence. Children reported about their own externalizing behaviors at Times 1, 2, and 3. Results Children's exposure to post-election violence was related to Time 2 externalizing behavior, and childrearing violence at Time 1 predicted child externalizing behavior at Time 2. Exposure to post-election violence was not directly related to either childrearing violence or children's externalizing behavior by Time 3, although children's externalizing at Time 2 predicted more childrearing violence at Time 3. Conclusion These results support earlier work that links childrearing violence and children's exposure to political violence with increases in child externalizing behavior, but examined these links in the under-studied area of short-term political violence. Even though sudden and severe political violence may subside significantly in weeks or months, increased attention to long-term effects on parenting and child adjustment is warranted. PMID:24639914

Childrearing Violence and Child Adjustment Following Exposure to Kenyan Post-election Violence.

PubMed

Skinner, Ann T; Oburu, Paul; Lansford, Jennifer E; Bacchini, Dario

2014-01-01

This study examines parents' and children's exposure to short-term political violence and the relation between childrearing violence and child adjustment following widespread violence that erupted in Kisumu, Kenya after the disputed presidential election in December 2007. Mothers of 100 Luo children (mean age = 8.46 years, 61% female) reported on their own use of childrearing violence at Time 1, approximately 4 months after the disputed election, and again at Times 2 ( n = 95) and 3 ( n = 95), approximately 12 and 24 months later, respectively. At Time 2, mothers reported about post-election violence directed at them and about their children's exposure to post-election violence. Children reported about their own externalizing behaviors at Times 1, 2, and 3. Children's exposure to post-election violence was related to Time 2 externalizing behavior, and childrearing violence at Time 1 predicted child externalizing behavior at Time 2. Exposure to post-election violence was not directly related to either childrearing violence or children's externalizing behavior by Time 3, although children's externalizing at Time 2 predicted more childrearing violence at Time 3. These results support earlier work that links childrearing violence and children's exposure to political violence with increases in child externalizing behavior, but examined these links in the under-studied area of short-term political violence. Even though sudden and severe political violence may subside significantly in weeks or months, increased attention to long-term effects on parenting and child adjustment is warranted.

Strong anticipation and long-range cross-correlation: Application of detrended cross-correlation analysis to human behavioral data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delignières, Didier; Marmelat, Vivien

2014-01-01

In this paper, we analyze empirical data, accounting for coordination processes between complex systems (bimanual coordination, interpersonal coordination, and synchronization with a fractal metronome), by using a recently proposed method: detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA). This work is motivated by the strong anticipation hypothesis, which supposes that coordination between complex systems is not achieved on the basis of local adaptations (i.e., correction, predictions), but results from a more global matching of complexity properties. Indeed, recent experiments have evidenced a very close correlation between the scaling properties of the series produced by two coordinated systems, despite a quite weak local synchronization. We hypothesized that strong anticipation should result in the presence of long-range cross-correlations between the series produced by the two systems. Results allow a detailed analysis of the effects of coordination on the fluctuations of the series produced by the two systems. In the long term, series tend to present similar scaling properties, with clear evidence of long-range cross-correlation. Short-term results strongly depend on the nature of the task. Simulation studies allow disentangling the respective effects of noise and short-term coupling processes on DCCA results, and suggest that the matching of long-term fluctuations could be the result of short-term coupling processes.

Preliminary Development of a Unified Viscoplastic Constitutive Model for Alloy 617 with Special Reference to Long Term Creep Behavior

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sham, Sam; Walker, Kevin P.

The expected service life of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant is 60 years. Structural analyses of the Intermediate Heat Exchanger (IHX) will require the development of unified viscoplastic constitutive models that address the material behavior of Alloy 617, a construction material of choice, over a wide range of strain rates. Many unified constitutive models employ a yield stress state variable which is used to account for cyclic hardening and softening of the material. For low stress values below the yield stress state variable these constitutive models predict that no inelastic deformation takes place which is contrary to experimental results. Themore » ability to model creep deformation at low stresses for the IHX application is very important as the IHX operational stresses are restricted to very small values due to the low creep strengths at elevated temperatures and long design lifetime. This paper presents some preliminary work in modeling the unified viscoplastic constitutive behavior of Alloy 617 which accounts for the long term, low stress, creep behavior and the hysteretic behavior of the material at elevated temperatures. The preliminary model is presented in one-dimensional form for ease of understanding, but the intent of the present work is to produce a three-dimensional model suitable for inclusion in the user subroutines UMAT and USERPL of the ABAQUS and ANSYS nonlinear finite element codes. Further experiments and constitutive modeling efforts are planned to model the material behavior of Alloy 617 in more detail.« less

Getting off on the right foot: subjective value versus economic value in predicting longitudinal job outcomes from job offer negotiations.

PubMed

Curhan, Jared R; Elfenbein, Hillary Anger; Kilduff, Gavin J

2009-03-01

Although negotiation experiences can affect a negotiator's ensuing attitudes and behavior, little is known about their long-term consequences. Using a longitudinal survey design, the authors tested the degree to which economic and subjective value achieved in job offer negotiations predicts employees' subsequent job attitudes and intentions concerning turnover. Results indicate that subjective value predicts greater compensation satisfaction and job satisfaction and lower turnover intention measured 1 year later. Surprisingly, the economic outcomes that negotiators achieved had no apparent effects on these factors. Implications, limitations, and future directions are discussed. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Predicting isoproturon long-term mineralization from short-term experiment: Can this be a suitable approach?

PubMed

Wang, Fang; Dörfler, Ulrike; Jiang, Xin; Schroll, Reiner

2016-02-01

A worldwide used pesticide - isoproturon (IPU) - was selected to test whether short-term experiments can be used to predict long-term mineralization of IPU in soil. IPU-mineralization was measured for 39 and 265 days in four different agricultural soils with a low mineralization dynamic. Additionally, in one soil IPU dissipation, formation and dissipation of metabolites, formation of non-extractable residues (NER) and (14)C-microbial biomass from (14)C-IPU were monitored for 39 and 265 days. The data from short-term and long-term experiments were used for model fitting. The long-term dynamics of IPU mineralization were considerably overestimated by the short-term experiments in two soils with neutral pH, while in two other soils with low pH and lower mineralization, the long-term mineralization of IPU could be sufficiently predicted. Additional investigations in one of the soils with neutral pH showed that dissipation of IPU and metabolites could be correctly predicted by the short-term experiment. However, the formation of NER and (14)C-microbial biomass were remarkably overestimated by the short-term experiment. Further, it could be shown that the released NER and (14)C-microbial biomass were the main contributors of (14)CO2 formation at later incubation stages. Taken together, our results indicate that in soils with neutral pH short-term experiments were inadequate to predict the long-term mineralization of IPU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust retention and transfer of tool construction techniques in chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes).

PubMed

Vale, Gill L; Flynn, Emma G; Pender, Lydia; Price, Elizabeth; Whiten, Andrew; Lambeth, Susan P; Schapiro, Steven J; Kendal, Rachel L

2016-02-01

Long-term memory can be critical to a species' survival in environments with seasonal and even longer-term cycles of resource availability. The present, longitudinal study investigated whether complex tool behaviors used to gain an out-of-reach reward, following a hiatus of about 3 years and 7 months since initial experiences with a tool use task, were retained and subsequently executed more quickly by experienced than by naïve chimpanzees. Ten of the 11 retested chimpanzees displayed impressive long-term procedural memory, creating elongated tools using the same methods employed years previously, either combining 2 tools or extending a single tool. The complex tool behaviors were also transferred to a different task context, showing behavioral flexibility. This represents some of the first evidence for appreciable long-term procedural memory, and improvements in the utility of complex tool manufacture in chimpanzees. Such long-term procedural memory and behavioral flexibility have important implications for the longevity and transmission of behavioral traditions. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Robust Retention and Transfer of Tool Construction Techniques in Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes)

PubMed Central

Vale, Gill L.; Flynn, Emma G.; Pender, Lydia; Price, Elizabeth; Whiten, Andrew; Lambeth, Susan P.; Schapiro, Steven J.; Kendal, Rachel L.

2016-01-01

Long-term memory can be critical to a species’ survival in environments with seasonal and even longer-term cycles of resource availability. The present, longitudinal study investigated whether complex tool behaviors used to gain an out-of-reach reward, following a hiatus of about 3 years and 7 months since initial experiences with a tool use task, were retained and subsequently executed more quickly by experienced than by naïve chimpanzees. Ten of the 11 retested chimpanzees displayed impressive long-term procedural memory, creating elongated tools using the same methods employed years previously, either combining 2 tools or extending a single tool. The complex tool behaviors were also transferred to a different task context, showing behavioral flexibility. This represents some of the first evidence for appreciable long-term procedural memory, and improvements in the utility of complex tool manufacture in chimpanzees. Such long-term procedural memory and behavioral flexibility have important implications for the longevity and transmission of behavioral traditions. PMID:26881941

Beat them or ban them: the characteristics and social functions of anger and contempt.

PubMed

Fischer, Agneta H; Roseman, Ira J

2007-07-01

This article reports 3 studies in which the authors examined (a) the distinctive characteristics of anger and contempt responses and (b) the interpersonal causes and effects of both emotions. In the 1st study, the authors examined the distinction between the 2 emotions; in the 2nd study, the authors tested whether contempt could be predicted from previous anger incidents with the same person; and in the 3rd study, the authors examined the effects of type of relationship on anger and contempt reactions. The results of the 3 studies show that anger and contempt often occur together but that there are clear distinctions between the 2 emotions: Anger is characterized more by short-term attack responses but long-term reconciliation, whereas contempt is characterized by rejection and social exclusion of the other person, both in the short-term and in the long-term. The authors also found that contempt may develop out of previously experienced anger and that a lack of intimacy with and perceived control over the behavior of the other person, as well as negative dispositional attributions about the other person, predicted the emergence of contempt. Copyright 2007 APA, all rights reserved.

Crosslink Density and Molecular Weight Effects on the Viscoelastic Response of a Glassy High-Performance Polyimide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicholson, Lee M.; Whitley, Karen S.; Gates, Thomas S.

2001-01-01

Durability and long-term performance are among the primary concerns for the use of advanced polymer matrix composites (PMCs) in modern aerospace structural applications. For a PMC subJected to long-term exposure at elevated temperatures. the viscoelastic nature of the polymer matrix will contribute to macroscopic changes in composite stiffness, strength and fatigue life. Over time. changes in the polymer due to physical aging will have profound effects on tile viscoelastic compliance of the material, hence affecting its long-term durability. Thus, the ability to predict material performance using intrinsic properties, such as crosslink density and molecular weight, would greatly enhance the efficiency of design and development of PMCs. The objective of this paper is to discuss and present the results of an experimental study that considers the effects of crosslink density, molecular weight and temperature on the viscoelastic behavior including physical aging of an advanced polymer. Five distinct variations in crosslink density were used to evaluate the differences in mechanical performance of an advanced polyimide. The physical aging behavior was isolated by conducting sequenced, short-term isothermal creep compliance tests in tension. These tests were performed over a range of sub-glass transition temperatures. The material constants, material master curves and physical aging-related parameters were evaluated as a function of temperature crosslink density and molecular weight using time-temperature and time-aging time superposition techniques.

The role of short- and long-term cognitive empathy activation in preventing cyberbystander reinforcing cyberbullying behavior.

PubMed

Barlińska, Julia; Szuster, Anna; Winiewski, Mikołaj

2015-04-01

The long- versus short-term effectiveness of empathy activation on reducing bystander behavior reinforcing cyberbullying was tested. The focus was on limiting the frequency of forwarding a message ridiculing a peer. Experimental research on adolescent students was conducted in conditions simulating online contact. The results confirmed the significance of cognitive empathy activated immediately prior to decision making on limiting involvement in reinforcing cyberbullying behavior. The long-term impact of empathy was markedly limited.

Long-term outcomes and predictors of internet-delivered cognitive behavioral therapy for childhood anxiety disorders.

PubMed

Vigerland, Sarah; Serlachius, Eva; Thulin, Ulrika; Andersson, Gerhard; Larsson, Jan-Olov; Ljótsson, Brjánn

2017-03-01

This study investigated the long-term outcomes of internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy (ICBT) for children with anxiety disorders, and potential pre-treatment predictors of treatment outcome. The sample included eighty-four children (8-12 years old) with anxiety disorders, from both a treatment group and a waitlist control (after participants had crossed over to treatment) of a previous randomized controlled study. Participants were assessed at post-treatment and three- and twelve-months after treatment using a semi-structured interview and parent ratings. Pre-treatment data were used to investigate predictors of treatment outcome at three-month follow-up. Intention-to-treat analysis showed that treatment gains were maintained at twelve-month follow-up, including clinician rated severity of the principal anxiety disorder, parent rated anxiety symptoms and global functioning, with mainly large effect sizes (Cohen's d = 0.63-2.35). Completer analyses showed that suspected autism spectrum disorder was associated with less change in symptom severity. No other pre-treatment measures significantly predicted treatment outcome. This study suggests that internet-delivered CBT can have long-term beneficial effects for children with anxiety disorders. Predictors of treatment outcome need to be evaluated further. Clinicaltrials.gov; NCT01533402. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Space-Bounded Church-Turing Thesis and Computational Tractability of Closed Systems.

PubMed

Braverman, Mark; Schneider, Jonathan; Rojas, Cristóbal

2015-08-28

We report a new limitation on the ability of physical systems to perform computation-one that is based on generalizing the notion of memory, or storage space, available to the system to perform the computation. Roughly, we define memory as the maximal amount of information that the evolving system can carry from one instant to the next. We show that memory is a limiting factor in computation even in lieu of any time limitations on the evolving system-such as when considering its equilibrium regime. We call this limitation the space-bounded Church-Turing thesis (SBCT). The SBCT is supported by a simulation assertion (SA), which states that predicting the long-term behavior of bounded-memory systems is computationally tractable. In particular, one corollary of SA is an explicit bound on the computational hardness of the long-term behavior of a discrete-time finite-dimensional dynamical system that is affected by noise. We prove such a bound explicitly.

Early behavioral adherence predicts short and long-term weight loss in the POUNDS LOST study

PubMed Central

Anton, Stephen D.; Han, Hongmei; Champagne, Catherine M.; Allen, Ray; LeBlanc, Eric; Ryan, Donna H.; Rood, Jennifer; McManus, Katherine; Laranjo, Nancy; Carey, Vincent J.; Loria, Catherine M.; Bray, George A.; Sacks, Frank M.

2011-01-01

The primary aim of this study was to test the association of early (first 6 months) adherence related to diet, self-monitoring, and attendance with changes in adiposity and cardiovascular risk factors. This study used data from the 24-month POUNDS LOST trial that tested the efficacy of four dietary macronutrient compositions for short-and long-term weight loss. A computer tracking system was used to record data on eight indicator variables related to adherence. Using canonical correlations at the 6 and 24 month measurement periods, early behavioral adherence was associated with changes in percent weight loss and waist circumference at 6 months (R = 0.52) and 24 months (R = 0.37), but was not associated with cardiovascular disease risk factor levels. Early dietary adherence was associated with changes in insulin at 6 months (R = 0.19), but not at 24 months (R = 0.08, ns). Early dietary adherence was not associated with changes in adiposity. PMID:20195742

Space-Bounded Church-Turing Thesis and Computational Tractability of Closed Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braverman, Mark; Schneider, Jonathan; Rojas, Cristóbal

2015-08-01

We report a new limitation on the ability of physical systems to perform computation—one that is based on generalizing the notion of memory, or storage space, available to the system to perform the computation. Roughly, we define memory as the maximal amount of information that the evolving system can carry from one instant to the next. We show that memory is a limiting factor in computation even in lieu of any time limitations on the evolving system—such as when considering its equilibrium regime. We call this limitation the space-bounded Church-Turing thesis (SBCT). The SBCT is supported by a simulation assertion (SA), which states that predicting the long-term behavior of bounded-memory systems is computationally tractable. In particular, one corollary of SA is an explicit bound on the computational hardness of the long-term behavior of a discrete-time finite-dimensional dynamical system that is affected by noise. We prove such a bound explicitly.

A new experimental method for the accelerated characterization of composite materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brinson, H. F.; Morris, D. H.; Yeow, Y. T.

1978-01-01

A method which permits the prediction of long-term properties of graphite/epoxy laminates on the basis of short-term (15 min) laboratory tests is described. Demonstration of delayed viscoelastic fracture in one laminate configuration, and data on the time and temperature response of a matrix-dominated unidirectional laminate contributed to a characterization of the viscoelastic process in the graphite/epoxy composites. Master curves from short-term tests of certain laminate configurations can be employed to generate long-term master curves. In addition, analytical predictions from short-term results can be used to predict long-term (25-hour) laminate properties.

African American adolescent mothers' early caregiving involvement and childrens' behavior and academic performance at age 7.

PubMed

Oberlander, Sarah E; Black, Maureen M

2011-01-01

The United States continues to have the highest incidence of adolescent births among industrialized nations. This study used transactional and life span theories of development to examine whether caregiving patterns assessed over the first 24 months postpartum predicted children's behavior and academic achievement at 7 years. Participants included 120 primiparous, urban, low-income, African American adolescent mothers who participated in a randomized controlled trial of home intervention. Group-based trajectories were used to examine the pattern of caregiving involvement over time. Two distinct, consistent trajectories of caregiving involvement were found: maternal and shared. Maternal caregiving involvement over the first 24 months postpartum predicted positive child behavior and academic achievement at 7 years. In keeping with both transactional and life span theories, findings suggest that adoption of the parent role may lead to positive long-term outcomes for children of adolescent mothers.

Anticipatory eye movements and long-term memory in early infancy.

PubMed

Wong-Kee-You, Audrey M B; Adler, Scott A

2016-11-01

Advances in our understanding of long-term memory in early infancy have been made possible by studies that have used the Rovee-Collier's mobile conjugate reinforcement paradigm and its variants. One function that has been attributed to long-term memory is the formation of expectations (Rovee-Collier & Hayne, 1987); consequently, a long-term memory representation should be established during expectation formation. To examine this prediction and potentially open the door on a new paradigm for exploring infants' long-term memory, using the Visual Expectation Paradigm (Haith, Hazan, & Goodman, 1988), 3-month-old infants were trained to form an expectation for predictable color and spatial information of picture events and emit anticipatory eye movements to those events. One day later, infants' anticipatory eye movements decreased in number relative to the end of training when the predictable colors were changed but not when the spatial location of the predictable color events was changed. These findings confirm that information encoded during expectation formation are stored in long-term memory, as hypothesized by Rovee-Collier and colleagues. Further, this research suggests that eye movements are potentially viable measures of long-term memory in infancy, providing confirmatory evidence for early mnemonic processes. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long-term effects of self-control on alcohol use and sexual behavior among urban minority young women.

PubMed

Griffin, Kenneth W; Scheier, Lawrence M; Acevedo, Bianca; Grenard, Jerry L; Botvin, Gilbert J

2012-01-01

High risk alcohol use and sexual behaviors peak in young adulthood and often occur in the same individuals. Alcohol use has been found to impair decision-making and contribute to high risk sexual activity. However, the association between alcohol use and risky sexual behavior may also reflect enduring individual differences in risk taking, sociability, self-control, and related variables. Both behaviors can serve similar functions related to recreation, interpersonal connection, and the pursuit of excitement or pleasure. The present study examined the extent to which high risk drinking and sexual behavior clustered together in a sample of urban minority young adult women, a demographic group at elevated risk for negative outcomes related to sexual health. We tested whether psychosocial functioning measured at the beginning of high school predicted classes of risk behaviors when girls were tracked longitudinally into young adulthood. Latent class analysis indicated three distinct profiles based on high risk drinking and sexual behavior (i.e., multiple sex partners) in young adulthood. The largest class (73% of the sample) reported low levels of risky drinking and sexual behavior. The next largest class (19%) reported high risk drinking and low risk sexual behavior, and the smallest class (8%) reported high levels of both behaviors. Compared to women from other racial/ethnic groups, black women were more likely to be categorized in the high risk drinking/low risk sex class. Multinomial logistic regression indicated that self-control in adolescence had a broad and enduring protective effect on risk behaviors eight years later and was associated with a greater probability of being in the low risk drinking/low risk sex class. Findings are discussed in terms of understanding the phenotypic expressions of risk behavior as they relate to early psychosocial development and the long-term protective function of self-control in reducing high risk drinking and sexual behaviors.

Long-Term Effects of Self-Control on Alcohol Use and Sexual Behavior among Urban Minority Young Women

PubMed Central

Griffin, Kenneth W.; Scheier, Lawrence M.; Acevedo, Bianca; Grenard, Jerry L.; Botvin, Gilbert J.

2011-01-01

High risk alcohol use and sexual behaviors peak in young adulthood and often occur in the same individuals. Alcohol use has been found to impair decision-making and contribute to high risk sexual activity. However, the association between alcohol use and risky sexual behavior may also reflect enduring individual differences in risk taking, sociability, self-control, and related variables. Both behaviors can serve similar functions related to recreation, interpersonal connection, and the pursuit of excitement or pleasure. The present study examined the extent to which high risk drinking and sexual behavior clustered together in a sample of urban minority young adult women, a demographic group at elevated risk for negative outcomes related to sexual health. We tested whether psychosocial functioning measured at the beginning of high school predicted classes of risk behaviors when girls were tracked longitudinally into young adulthood. Latent class analysis indicated three distinct profiles based on high risk drinking and sexual behavior (i.e., multiple sex partners) in young adulthood. The largest class (73% of the sample) reported low levels of risky drinking and sexual behavior. The next largest class (19%) reported high risk drinking and low risk sexual behavior, and the smallest class (8%) reported high levels of both behaviors. Compared to women from other racial/ethnic groups, black women were more likely to be categorized in the high risk drinking/low risk sex class. Multinomial logistic regression indicated that self-control in adolescence had a broad and enduring protective effect on risk behaviors eight years later and was associated with a greater probability of being in the low risk drinking/low risk sex class. Findings are discussed in terms of understanding the phenotypic expressions of risk behavior as they relate to early psychosocial development and the long-term protective function of self-control in reducing high risk drinking and sexual behaviors. PMID:22470274

Pressurization of a Flightweight, Liquid Hydrogen Tank: Evaporation and Condensation at a Liquid Vapor Interface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, Mark

2017-01-01

Evaporation and condensation at a liquid-vapor interface is important for long-term, in-space cryogenic propellant storage. Yet the current understanding of inter-facial physics does not consistently predict behavior of evaporation or condensation rates. The proposed paper will present a physical model, based on the 1-D Heat equation and Schrage's equation, which demonstrates thin thermal layers at the fluid vapor interface.

The intergenerational transfer of psychosocial risk: mediators of vulnerability and resilience.

PubMed

Serbin, Lisa A; Karp, Jennifer

2004-01-01

The recurrence of social, behavioral, and health problems in successive generations of families is a prevalent theme in both the scientific and popular literatures. This review discusses recent conceptual models and findings from longitudinal studies concerning the intergenerational transfer of psychosocial risk, including intergenerational continuity, and the processes whereby a generation of parents may place their offspring at elevated risk for social, behavioral, and health problems. Key findings include the mediational effects of parenting and environmental factors in the transfer of risk. In both girls and boys, childhood aggression and antisocial behavior appear to predict long-term trajectories that place offspring at risk. Sequelae of childhood aggression that may threaten the well-being of offspring include school failure, adolescent risk-taking behavior, early and single parenthood, and family poverty. These childhood and adolescent behavioral styles also predict harsh, aggressive, neglectful, and unstimulating parenting behavior toward offspring. Buffering factors within at-risk families include maternal educational attainment and constructive parenting practices (e.g., emotional warmth, consistent disciplinary practices, and cognitive scaffolding). These findings highlight the potential application and relevance of intergenerational studies for social, educational, and health policy.

Suicidal Behavior in Long-Term Care Facilities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osgood, Nancy J.; Brant, Barbara A.

1990-01-01

Surveyed administrators of 463 long-term care facilities concerning overt suicides and intentional life-threatening behaviors. Data revealed that White males were highest risk group. Refusal to eat, drink, or take medications were most common suicidal behaviors. Depression, loneliness, feelings of family rejection, and loss were significant…

Modified creep and shrinkage prediction model B3 for serviceability limit state analysis of composite slabs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gholamhoseini, Alireza

2016-03-01

Relatively little research has been reported on the time-dependent in-service behavior of composite concrete slabs with profiled steel decking as permanent formwork and little guidance is available for calculating long-term deflections. The drying shrinkage profile through the thickness of a composite slab is greatly affected by the impermeable steel deck at the slab soffit, and this has only recently been quantified. This paper presents the results of long-term laboratory tests on composite slabs subjected to both drying shrinkage and sustained loads. Based on laboratory measurements, a design model for the shrinkage strain profile through the thickness of a slab is proposed. The design model is based on some modifications to an existing creep and shrinkage prediction model B3. In addition, an analytical model is developed to calculate the time-dependent deflection of composite slabs taking into account the time-dependent effects of creep and shrinkage. The calculated deflections are shown to be in good agreement with the experimental measurements.

Relationship between Physical Disabilities or Long-Term Health Problems and Health Risk Behaviors or Conditions among US High School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Sherry Everett; Lollar, Donald J.

2008-01-01

Background: This study explores the relationship between self-reported physical disabilities or long-term health problems and health risk behaviors or adverse health conditions (self-reported engagement in violent behaviors, attempted suicide, cigarette smoking, alcohol and other drug use, sexual activity, physical activity, dietary behaviors,…

Effects of Sustained Abstinence Among Treated Substance-Abusing Homeless Persons on Housing and Employment

PubMed Central

Schumacher, Joseph E.; Wallace, Dennis; Vuchinich, Rudy; Mennemeyer, Stephen T.; Kertesz, Stefan G.

2010-01-01

Objectives. We examined whether cocaine-dependent homeless persons had stable housing and were employed 6, 12, and 18 months after they entered a randomized controlled trial comparing 2 treatments. Methods. One group (n = 103) received abstinence-contingent housing, vocational training, and work; another group (n = 103) received the same intervention plus cognitive behavioral day treatment. We examined baseline and early treatment variables for association with long-term housing and employment. Results. Although the enhanced-treatment group achieved better abstinence rates, the groups did not differ in long-term housing and employment stability. However, consecutive weeks of abstinence during treatment (and to a lesser extent, older age and male gender) predicted long-term housing and employment stability after adjustment for baseline differences in employment, housing, and treatment. Conclusions. Our data showed a relationship of abstinence with housing stability. Contrasting these results with the increasingly popular Housing First interventions reveals important gaps in our knowledge to be addressed in future research. PMID:19833998

Higher integrity of the motor and visual pathways in long-term video game players.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Du, Guijin; Yang, Yongxin; Qin, Wen; Li, Xiaodong; Zhang, Quan

2015-01-01

Long term video game players (VGPs) exhibit superior visual and motor skills compared with non-video game control subjects (NVGCs). However, the neural basis underlying the enhanced behavioral performance remains largely unknown. To clarify this issue, the present study compared the whiter matter integrity within the corticospinal tracts (CST), the superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF), the inferior longitudinal fasciculus (ILF), and the inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus (IFOF) between the VGPs and the NVGCs using diffusion tensor imaging. Compared with the NVGCs, voxel-wise comparisons revealed significantly higher fractional anisotropy (FA) values in some regions within the left CST, left SLF, bilateral ILF, and IFOF in VGPs. Furthermore, higher FA values in the left CST at the level of cerebral peduncle predicted a faster response in visual attention tasks. These results suggest that higher white matter integrity in the motor and higher-tier visual pathways is associated with long-term video game playing, which may contribute to the understanding on how video game play influences motor and visual performance.

Higher integrity of the motor and visual pathways in long-term video game players

PubMed Central

Du, Guijin; Yang, Yongxin; Qin, Wen; Li, Xiaodong; Zhang, Quan

2015-01-01

Long term video game players (VGPs) exhibit superior visual and motor skills compared with non-video game control subjects (NVGCs). However, the neural basis underlying the enhanced behavioral performance remains largely unknown. To clarify this issue, the present study compared the whiter matter integrity within the corticospinal tracts (CST), the superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF), the inferior longitudinal fasciculus (ILF), and the inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus (IFOF) between the VGPs and the NVGCs using diffusion tensor imaging. Compared with the NVGCs, voxel-wise comparisons revealed significantly higher fractional anisotropy (FA) values in some regions within the left CST, left SLF, bilateral ILF, and IFOF in VGPs. Furthermore, higher FA values in the left CST at the level of cerebral peduncle predicted a faster response in visual attention tasks. These results suggest that higher white matter integrity in the motor and higher-tier visual pathways is associated with long-term video game playing, which may contribute to the understanding on how video game play influences motor and visual performance. PMID:25805981

Long-term effects of a single exposure to stress in adult rats on behavior and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal responsiveness: comparison of two outbred rat strains.

PubMed

Belda, Xavier; Márquez, Cristina; Armario, Antonio

2004-10-05

We have previously observed that a single exposure to immobilization (IMO), a severe stressor, caused long-term (days to weeks) desensitization of the response of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis to the homotypic stressor, with no changes in behavioral reactivity to novel environments. In contrast, other laboratories have reported that a single exposure to footshock induced a long-term sensitization of both HPA and behavioral responses to novel environments. To test whether these apparent discrepancies can be explained by the use of different stressors or different strains of rats, we studied in the present work the long-term effects of a single exposure to two different stressors (footshock or IMO) in two different strains of rats (Sprague-Dawley from Iffa-Credo and Wistar rats from Harlan). We found that both strains showed desensitization of the HPA response to the same (homotypic) stressor after a previous exposure to either shock or IMO. The long-term effects were higher after IMO than shock. No major changes in behavior in two novel environments (circular corridor, CC and elevated plus-maze, EPM) were observed after a single exposure to shock or IMO in neither strain, despite the fact that shocked rats showed a conditioned freezing response to the shock boxes. The present results demonstrate that long-term stress-induced desensitization of the HPA axis is a reliable phenomenon that can be observed with different stressors and strains. However, only behavioral changes related to shock-induced conditioned fear were found, which suggests that so far poorly characterized factors are determining the long-term behavioral consequences of a single exposure to stress.

Modeling Interdependent and Periodic Real-World Action Sequences

PubMed Central

Kurashima, Takeshi; Althoff, Tim; Leskovec, Jure

2018-01-01

Mobile health applications, including those that track activities such as exercise, sleep, and diet, are becoming widely used. Accurately predicting human actions in the real world is essential for targeted recommendations that could improve our health and for personalization of these applications. However, making such predictions is extremely difficult due to the complexities of human behavior, which consists of a large number of potential actions that vary over time, depend on each other, and are periodic. Previous work has not jointly modeled these dynamics and has largely focused on item consumption patterns instead of broader types of behaviors such as eating, commuting or exercising. In this work, we develop a novel statistical model, called TIPAS, for Time-varying, Interdependent, and Periodic Action Sequences. Our approach is based on personalized, multivariate temporal point processes that model time-varying action propensities through a mixture of Gaussian intensities. Our model captures short-term and long-term periodic interdependencies between actions through Hawkes process-based self-excitations. We evaluate our approach on two activity logging datasets comprising 12 million real-world actions (e.g., eating, sleep, and exercise) taken by 20 thousand users over 17 months. We demonstrate that our approach allows us to make successful predictions of future user actions and their timing. Specifically, TIPAS improves predictions of actions, and their timing, over existing methods across multiple datasets by up to 156%, and up to 37%, respectively. Performance improvements are particularly large for relatively rare and periodic actions such as walking and biking, improving over baselines by up to 256%. This demonstrates that explicit modeling of dependencies and periodicities in real-world behavior enables successful predictions of future actions, with implications for modeling human behavior, app personalization, and targeting of health interventions. PMID:29780977

Longitudinal Examination of Peer and Partner Influences on Gender-specific Pathways From Child Abuse to Adult Crime

PubMed Central

Lee, Jungeun Olivia; Herrenkohl, Todd I.; Jung, Hyunzee; Skinner, Martie L.; Klika, J. Bart

2015-01-01

Research provides increasing evidence of the association of child abuse with adult antisocial behavior. However, less is known about the developmental pathways that underlie this association. Building on the life course model of antisocial behavior, the present study examined possible developmental pathways linking various forms of child abuse (physical, emotional, sexual) to adult antisocial behavior. These pathways include child and adolescent antisocial behavior, as well as adulthood measures of partner risk taking, warmth, and antisocial peer influences. Data are from the Lehigh Longitudinal Study, a prospective longitudinal study examining long-term developmental outcomes subsequent to child maltreatment. Participant families in the Lehigh Longitudinal Study were followed from preschool age into adulthood. Analyses of gender differences addressed the consistency of path coefficients across genders. Results for 297 adult participants followed from early childhood showed that, for both genders, physical and emotional child abuse predicted adult crime indirectly through child and adolescent antisocial behavior, as well as adult partner and antisocial peer influences. However, for females, having an antisocial partner predicted an affiliation with antisocial peers, and that in turn predicted adult crime. For males, having an antisocial partner was associated with less partner warmth, which in turn predicted an affiliation with antisocial peers, itself a proximal predictor of adult crime. Sexual abuse also predicted adolescent antisocial behavior, but only for males, supporting what some have called “a delayed-onset pathway” for females, whereby the exposure to early risks produce much later developmental outcomes. PMID:26271556

Was that cheating? Perceptions vary by sex, attachment anxiety, and behavior.

PubMed

Kruger, Daniel J; Fisher, Maryanna L; Edelstein, Robin S; Chopik, William J; Fitzgerald, Carey J; Stout, Sarah L

2013-02-13

We generated an inventory of 27 interpersonal behaviors and examined the extent to which participants judged each behavior as cheating on a long-term partner. We predicted variation in these judgments based on participant sex and attachment insecurity. Ratings for items ranged considerably; participants rated sexual behaviors as most indicative of cheating, then erotic behaviors, followed by behaviors consistent with a romantic relationship, and then behaviors related to financial support. Women rated ten items higher than did men, and men's ratings were higher on a minor financial support item. Higher attachment anxiety was associated with higher ratings for 18 of 27 behaviors; higher attachment avoidance was associated with lower scores on five items and higher scores on one item. Principle Axis Factoring identified three dimensions; sexual interaction, behaviors indicating close relationships, and casual social interaction. We discuss these results using the framework of attachment theory and sex-specific mating strategies.

Executive Functioning Mediates the Effect of Behavioral Problems on Depression in Mothers of Children With Developmental Disabilities

PubMed Central

Chan, Wai; Smith, Leann E.; Greenberg, Jan S.; Hong, Jinkuk; Mailick, Marsha R.

2017-01-01

The present investigation explored long-term relationships of behavioral symptoms of adolescents and adults with developmental disabilities with the mental health of their mothers. Fragile X premutation carrier mothers of an adolescent or adult child with fragile X syndrome (n = 95), and mothers of a grown child with autism (n = 213) were included. Behavioral symptoms at Time 1 were hypothesized to predict maternal depressive symptoms at Time 3 via maternal executive dysfunction at Time 2. Results provided support for the mediating pathway of executive dysfunction. Additionally, the association of behavioral symptoms with executive dysfunction differed across the two groups, suggesting that premutation carriers may be more susceptible to caregiving stress due to their genotype. PMID:28095060

Research on the time-temperature-damage superposition principle of NEPE propellant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Long; Chen, Xiong; Xu, Jin-sheng; Zhou, Chang-sheng; Yu, Jia-quan

2015-11-01

To describe the relaxation behavior of NEPE (Nitrate Ester Plasticized Polyether) propellant, we analyzed the equivalent relationships between time, temperature, and damage. We conducted a series of uniaxial tensile tests and employed a cumulative damage model to calculate the damage values for relaxation tests at different strain levels. The damage evolution curve of the tensile test at 100 mm/min was obtained through numerical analysis. Relaxation tests were conducted over a range of temperature and strain levels, and the equivalent relationship between time, temperature, and damage was deduced based on free volume theory. The equivalent relationship was then used to generate predictions of the long-term relaxation behavior of the NEPE propellant. Subsequently, the equivalent relationship between time and damage was introduced into the linear viscoelastic model to establish a nonlinear model which is capable of describing the mechanical behavior of composite propellants under a uniaxial tensile load. The comparison between model prediction and experimental data shows that the presented model provides a reliable forecast of the mechanical behavior of propellants.

Teacher and Teaching Effects on Students’ Attitudes and Behaviors

PubMed Central

Blazar, David; Kraft, Matthew A.

2017-01-01

Research has focused predominantly on how teachers affect students’ achievement on tests despite evidence that a broad range of attitudes and behaviors are equally important to their long-term success. We find that upper-elementary teachers have large effects on self-reported measures of students’ self-efficacy in math, and happiness and behavior in class. Students’ attitudes and behaviors are predicted by teaching practices most proximal to these measures, including teachers’ emotional support and classroom organization. However, teachers who are effective at improving test scores often are not equally effective at improving students’ attitudes and behaviors. These findings lend empirical evidence to well-established theory on the multidimensional nature of teaching and the need to identify strategies for improving the full range of teachers’ skills. PMID:28931959

Water conservation behavior in Australia.

PubMed

Dolnicar, Sara; Hurlimann, Anna; Grün, Bettina

2012-08-30

Ensuring a nation's long term water supply requires the use of both supply-sided approaches such as water augmentation through water recycling, and demand-sided approaches such as water conservation. Conservation behavior can only be increased if the key drivers of such behavior are understood. The aim of this study is to reveal the main drivers from a comprehensive pool of hypothesized factors. An empirical study was conducted with 3094 Australians. Data was analyzed using multivariate linear regression analysis and decision trees to determine which factors best predict self-reported water conservation behavior. Two key factors emerge: high level of pro-environmental behavior; and pro-actively seeking out information about water. A number of less influential factors are also revealed. Public communication strategy implications are derived. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

42 CFR 483.13 - Resident behavior and facility practices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Resident behavior and facility practices. 483.13... SERVICES (CONTINUED) STANDARDS AND CERTIFICATION REQUIREMENTS FOR STATES AND LONG TERM CARE FACILITIES Requirements for Long Term Care Facilities § 483.13 Resident behavior and facility practices. (a) Restraints...

FY17 Status Report on the Micromechanical Finite Element Modeling of Creep Fracture of Grade 91 Steel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Messner, M. C.; Truster, T. J.; Cochran, K. B.

Advanced reactors designed to operate at higher temperatures than current light water reactors require structural materials with high creep strength and creep-fatigue resistance to achieve long design lives. Grade 91 is a ferritic/martensitic steel designed for long creep life at elevated temperatures. It has been selected as a candidate material for sodium fast reactor intermediate heat exchangers and other advanced reactor structural components. This report focuses on the creep deformation and rupture life of Grade 91 steel. The time required to complete an experiment limits the availability of long-life creep data for Grade 91 and other structural materials. Design methodsmore » often extrapolate the available shorter-term experimental data to longer design lives. However, extrapolation methods tacitly assume the underlying material mechanisms causing creep for long-life/low-stress conditions are the same as the mechanisms controlling creep in the short-life/high-stress experiments. A change in mechanism for long-term creep could cause design methods based on extrapolation to be non-conservative. The goal for physically-based microstructural models is to accurately predict material response in experimentally-inaccessible regions of design space. An accurate physically-based model for creep represents all the material mechanisms that contribute to creep deformation and damage and predicts the relative influence of each mechanism, which changes with loading conditions. Ideally, the individual mechanism models adhere to the material physics and not an empirical calibration to experimental data and so the model remains predictive for a wider range of loading conditions. This report describes such a physically-based microstructural model for Grade 91 at 600° C. The model explicitly represents competing dislocation and diffusional mechanisms in both the grain bulk and grain boundaries. The model accurately recovers the available experimental creep curves at higher stresses and the limited experimental data at lower stresses, predominately primary creep rates. The current model considers only one temperature. However, because the model parameters are, for the most part, directly related to the physics of fundamental material processes, the temperature dependence of the properties are known. Therefore, temperature dependence can be included in the model with limited additional effort. The model predicts a mechanism shift for 600° C at approximately 100 MPa from a dislocation- dominated regime at higher stress to a diffusion-dominated regime at lower stress. This mechanism shift impacts the creep life, notch-sensitivity, and, likely, creep ductility of Grade 91. In particular, the model predicts existing extrapolation methods for creep life may be non-conservative when attempting to extrapolate data for higher stress creep tests to low stress, long-life conditions. Furthermore, the model predicts a transition from notchstrengthening behavior at high stress to notch-weakening behavior at lower stresses. Both behaviors may affect the conservatism of existing design methods.« less

Estimating human cochlear tuning behaviorally via forward masking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oxenham, Andrew J.; Kreft, Heather A.

2018-05-01

The cochlea is where sound vibrations are transduced into the initial neural code for hearing. Despite the intervening stages of auditory processing, a surprising number of auditory perceptual phenomena can be explained in terms of the cochlea's biomechanical transformations. The quest to relate perception to these transformations has a long and distinguished history. Given its long history, it is perhaps surprising that something as fundamental as the link between frequency tuning in the cochlea and perception remains a controversial and active topic of investigation. Here we review some recent developments in our understanding of the relationship between cochlear frequency tuning and behavioral measures of frequency selectivity in humans. We show that forward masking using the notched-noise technique can produce reliable estimates of tuning that are in line with predictions from stimulus frequency otoacoustic emissions.

The 5-HTTLPR Polymorphism in the Serotonin Transporter Gene Moderates the Association between Emotional Behavior and Changes in Marital Satisfaction over Time

PubMed Central

Haase, Claudia M.; Saslow, Laura R.; Bloch, Lian; Saturn, Sarina R.; Casey, James J.; Seider, Benjamin H.; Lane, Jessica; Coppola, Giovanni; Levenson, Robert W.

2014-01-01

Why do some individuals become dissatisfied with their marriages when levels of negative emotion are high and levels of positive emotions are low, whereas others remain unaffected? Using data from a 13-year longitudinal study of middle-aged and older adults in long-term marriages, we examined whether the 5-HTTLPR polymorphism in the serotonin transporter gene moderates the association between negative and positive emotional behavior (objectively measured during marital conflict) and changes in marital satisfaction over time. For individuals with two short alleles of 5-HTTLPR, higher negative and lower positive emotional behavior at Time 1 predicted declines in marital satisfaction over time (even after controlling for depression and other covariates). For individuals with one or two long alleles, emotional behavior did not predict changes in marital satisfaction. We also found evidence for a crossover interaction (individuals with two short alleles of 5-HTTLPR and low levels of negative or high levels of positive emotion had the highest levels of marital satisfaction). These findings provide the first evidence of a specific genetic polymorphism that moderates the association between emotional behavior and changes in marital satisfaction over time and are consistent with increasing evidence that the short allele of this polymorphism serves as a susceptibility factor that amplifies sensitivity to both negative and positive emotional influences. PMID:24098925

Long-Term Outcomes of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Adolescent Body Dysmorphic Disorder.

PubMed

Krebs, Georgina; de la Cruz, Lorena Fernández; Monzani, Benedetta; Bowyer, Laura; Anson, Martin; Cadman, Jacinda; Heyman, Isobel; Turner, Cynthia; Veale, David; Mataix-Cols, David

2017-07-01

Emerging evidence suggests that cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) is an efficacious treatment for adolescent body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) in the short term, but longer-term outcomes remain unknown. The current study aimed to follow up a group of adolescents who had originally participated in a randomized controlled trial of CBT for BDD to determine whether treatment gains were maintained. Twenty-six adolescents (mean age = 16.2, SD = 1.6) with a primary diagnosis of BDD received a course of developmentally tailored CBT and were followed up over 12 months. Participants were assessed at baseline, midtreatment, posttreatment, 2-, 6-, and 12-month follow-up. The primary outcome measure was the clinician-rated Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale Modified for BDD. Secondary outcomes included measures of insight, depression, quality of life, and global functioning. BDD symptoms decreased significantly from pre- to posttreatment and remained stable over the 12-month follow-up. At this time point, 50% of participants were classified as responders and 23% as remitters. Participants remained significantly improved on all secondary outcomes at 12-month follow-up. Neither baseline insight nor baseline depression predicted long-term outcomes. The positive effects of CBT appear to be durable up to 12-month follow-up. However, the majority of patients remained symptomatic and vulnerable to a range of risks at 12-month follow-up, indicating that longer-term monitoring is advisable in this population. Future research should focus on enhancing the efficacy of CBT in order to improve long-term outcomes. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The Theory of Planned Behavior as it predicts potential intention to seek mental health services for depression among college students.

PubMed

Bohon, Lisa M; Cotter, Kelly A; Kravitz, Richard L; Cello, Philip C; Fernandez Y Garcia, Erik

2016-01-01

Between 9.5% and 31.3% of college students suffer from depression (American college health association national college health assessment II: reference group executive summary spring 2013. Amer. Coll. Health Assoc. 2013; Eagan K, Stolzenberg EB, Ramirez JJ, Aragon, MC, Suchard, RS, Hurtado S. The American freshman: national norms fall 2014. Higher Educ. Res. Inst.; 2015). Universities need to understand the factors that relate to care-seeking behavior. Across 3 studies, to relate attitudes, social norms, and perceived behavioral control to intention to seek mental health services, and to investigate barriers to care-seeking. University college students (N = 845, 64% female, 26% male, and 10% unspecified). New measures were created in Studies 1 and 2, and were examined using structural equation modeling in Study 3. Partially consistent with the Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen, I, Fishbein, M. Understanding Attitudes and Predicting Social Behavior. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall; 1980), a model with an excellent fit revealed that more positive attitudes about care and higher perceived behavioral control directly predicted higher intention to seek mental health services. Educating college students about mental health disorders and treatments, enhancing knowledge about available services, and addressing limited access to long-term care might improve treatment rates for students suffering from depression.

Parallel basal ganglia circuits for decision making.

PubMed

Hikosaka, Okihide; Ghazizadeh, Ali; Griggs, Whitney; Amita, Hidetoshi

2018-03-01

The basal ganglia control body movements, mainly, based on their values. Critical for this mechanism is dopamine neurons, which sends unpredicted value signals, mainly, to the striatum. This mechanism enables animals to change their behaviors flexibly, eventually choosing a valuable behavior. However, this may not be the best behavior, because the flexible choice is focused on recent, and, therefore, limited, experiences (i.e., short-term memories). Our old and recent studies suggest that the basal ganglia contain separate circuits that process value signals in a completely different manner. They are insensitive to recent changes in value, yet gradually accumulate the value of each behavior (i.e., movement or object choice). These stable circuits eventually encode values of many behaviors and then retain the value signals for a long time (i.e., long-term memories). They are innervated by a separate group of dopamine neurons that retain value signals, even when no reward is predicted. Importantly, the stable circuits can control motor behaviors (e.g., hand or eye) quickly and precisely, which allows animals to automatically acquire valuable outcomes based on historical life experiences. These behaviors would be called 'skills', which are crucial for survival. The stable circuits are localized in the posterior part of the basal ganglia, separately from the flexible circuits located in the anterior part. To summarize, the flexible and stable circuits in the basal ganglia, working together but independently, enable animals (and humans) to reach valuable goals in various contexts.

Predicting clinical image delivery time by monitoring PACS queue behavior.

PubMed

King, Nelson E; Documet, Jorge; Liu, Brent

2006-01-01

The expectation of rapid image retrieval from PACS users contributes to increased information technology (IT) infrastructure investments to increase performance as well as continuing demands upon PACS administrators to respond to "slow" system performance. The ability to provide predicted delivery times to a PACS user may curb user expectations for "fastest" response especially during peak hours. This, in turn, could result in a PACS infrastructure tailored to more realistic performance demands. A PACS with a stand-alone architecture under peak load typically holds study requests in a queue until the DICOM C-Move command can take place. We investigate the contents of a stand-alone architecture PACS RetrieveSend queue and identified parameters and behaviors that enable a more accurate prediction of delivery time. A prediction algorithm for studies delayed in a stand-alone PACS queue can be extendible to other potential bottlenecks such as long-term storage archives. Implications of a queue monitor in other PACS architectures are also discussed.

Reliability of Modern Scores to Predict Long-Term Mortality After Isolated Aortic Valve Operations.

PubMed

Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Ventura, Martina; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo; Parolari, Alessandro

2016-02-01

Contemporary scores for estimating perioperative death have been proposed to also predict also long-term death. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the updated European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score, and the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score for predicting long-term mortality in a contemporary cohort of isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). We also sought to develop for each score a simple algorithm based on predicted perioperative risk to predict long-term survival. Complete data on 1,444 patients who underwent isolated AVR in a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Data were evaluated with performance analyses and time-to-event semiparametric regression. Survival was 83.0% ± 1.1% at 5 years and 67.8 ± 1.9% at 8 years. Discrimination and calibration of all three scores both worsened for prediction of death at 1 year and 5 years. Nonetheless, a significant relationship was found between long-term survival and quartiles of scores (p < 0.0001). The estimated perioperative risk by each model was used to develop an algorithm to predict long-term death. The hazard ratios for death were 1.1 (95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.12) for European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, 1.34 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.40) for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.10) for the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score. The predicted risk generated by European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction scores cannot also be considered a direct estimate of the long-term risk for death. Nonetheless, the three scores can be used to derive an estimate of long-term risk of death in patients who undergo isolated AVR with the use of a simple algorithm. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Limitations on scientific prediction and how they could affect repository licensing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Konynenburg, R.A.

The best possibility for gaining an understanding of the likely future behavior of a high level nuclear waste disposal system is to use the scientific method. However, the scientific approach has inherent limitations when it comes to making long-term predictions with confidence. This paper examines some of these limiting factors as well as the criteria for admissibility of scientific evidence in the legal arena, and concludes that the prospects are doubtful for successful licensing of a potential repository under the regulations that are now being reconsidered. Suggestions am made for remedying this situation.

Sexual Disgust Trumps Pathogen Disgust in Predicting Voter Behavior During the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election.

PubMed

Billingsley, Joseph; Lieberman, Debra; Tybur, Joshua M

2018-01-01

Why is disgust sensitivity associated with socially conservative political views? Is it because socially conservative ideologies mitigate the risks of infectious disease, whether by promoting out-group avoidance or by reinforcing norms that sustain antipathogenic practices? Or might it be because socially conservative ideologies promote moral standards that advance a long-term, as opposed to a short-term, sexual strategy? Recent attempts to test these two explanations have yielded differing results and conflicting interpretations. Here, we contribute to the literature by examining the relationship between disgust sensitivity and political orientation, political party affiliation, and an often overlooked outcome-actual voter behavior. We focus on voter behavior and affiliation for the 2016 U.S. presidential election to determine whether pathogen or sexual disgust better predicts socially conservative ideology. Although many prominent aspects of Donald Trump's campaign-particularly his anti-foreign message-align with the pathogen-avoidance model of conservatism, we found that pathogen-related disgust sensitivity exerted no influence on political ideology, political party affiliation, or voter behavior, after controlling for sexual disgust sensitivity. In contrast, sexual disgust sensitivity was associated with increased odds of voting for Donald Trump versus each other major presidential candidate, as well as with increased odds of affiliating with the Republican versus the Democratic or Libertarian parties. In fact, for every unit increase in sexual disgust sensitivity, the odds of a participant voting for Trump versus Clinton increased by approximately 30%. It seems, then, that sexual disgust trumps pathogen disgust in predicting socially conservative voting behavior.

Applying Psychological Theories to Promote Long-Term Maintenance of Health Behaviors

PubMed Central

Joseph, Rodney P.; Daniel, Casey L.; Thind, Herpreet; Benitez, Tanya J.; Pekmezi, Dori

2014-01-01

Behavioral health theory provides a framework for researchers to design, implement, and evaluate the effects of health promotion programs. However, limited research has examined theories used in interventions to promote long-term maintenance of health behaviors. The purpose of this review was to evaluate the available literature and identify prominent behavioral health theories used in intervention research to promote maintenance of health behaviors. We reviewed theories used in intervention research assessing long-term maintenance (≥ 6 months post-intervention) of physical activity, weight loss, and smoking cessation. Five prominent behavioral theories were referenced by the 34 studies included in the review: Self-Determination Theory, Theory of Planned Behavior, Social Cognitive Theory, Transtheoretical Model, and Social Ecological Model. Descriptions and examples of applications of these theories are provided. Implications for future research are discussed. PMID:28217036

Early Postimplant Speech Perception and Language Skills Predict Long-Term Language and Neurocognitive Outcomes Following Pediatric Cochlear Implantation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hunter, Cynthia R.; Kronenberger, William G.; Castellanos, Irina; Pisoni, David B.

2017-01-01

Purpose: We sought to determine whether speech perception and language skills measured early after cochlear implantation in children who are deaf, and early postimplant growth in speech perception and language skills, predict long-term speech perception, language, and neurocognitive outcomes. Method: Thirty-six long-term users of cochlear…

Treatment expectancy affects the outcome of cognitive-behavioral interventions in chronic pain.

PubMed

Goossens, Mariëlle E J B; Vlaeyen, Johan W S; Hidding, Alita; Kole-Snijders, Ank; Evers, Silvia M A A

2005-01-01

Patients' initial beliefs about the success of a given pain treatment are shown to have an important influence on the final treatment outcome. The aims of the paper are to assess determinants of patients' treatment expectancy and to examine the extent to which treatment expectancy predicts the short-term and long-term outcome of cognitive-behavioral treatment of chronic pain. This study employs the data of 2 pooled randomized clinical trials evaluating the effectiveness of cognitive-behavioral interventions for 171 patients with fibromyalgia and chronic low back pain. Pretreatment and posttreatment expectancy were measured by a short questionnaire, which was based on the procedure by Borkovec and Nau. Four composite outcome variables (pain coping and control, motoric behavior, negative affect, and quality of life) were measured before and after the intervention and at 12 months follow-up. Furthermore, several patient characteristics were taken into account. Patients with higher treatment expectancies significantly received less disability compensation and were less fearful. A regression model of 3 factors (better pain coping and control, active and positive interpretation of pain, and less disability compensation) significantly explained 10% of the variance in pretreatment expectancy. Pretreatment expectancy significantly predicted each of the 4 outcome measures immediately after treatment and at 12 months follow-up. This study corroborates the importance of treatment expectation before entering a cognitive-behavioral intervention in patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain.

Alterations in task-induced activity and resting-state fluctuations in visual and DMN areas revealed in long-term meditators.

PubMed

Berkovich-Ohana, Aviva; Harel, Michal; Hahamy, Avital; Arieli, Amos; Malach, Rafael

2016-07-15

Recently we proposed that the information contained in spontaneously emerging (resting-state) fluctuations may reflect individually unique neuro-cognitive traits. One prediction of this conjecture, termed the "spontaneous trait reactivation" (STR) hypothesis, is that resting-state activity patterns could be diagnostic of unique personalities, talents and life-styles of individuals. Long-term meditators could provide a unique experimental group to test this hypothesis. Using fMRI we found that, during resting-state, the amplitude of spontaneous fluctuations in long-term mindfulness meditation (MM) practitioners was enhanced in the visual cortex and significantly reduced in the DMN compared to naïve controls. Importantly, during a visual recognition memory task, the MM group showed heightened visual cortex responsivity, concomitant with weaker negative responses in Default Mode Network (DMN) areas. This effect was also reflected in the behavioral performance, where MM practitioners performed significantly faster than the control group. Thus, our results uncover opposite changes in the visual and default mode systems in long-term meditators which are revealed during both rest and task. The results support the STR hypothesis and extend it to the domain of local changes in the magnitude of the spontaneous fluctuations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Operational improvements of long-term predicted ephemerides of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRSs)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kostoff, J. L.; Ward, D. T.; Cuevas, O. O.; Beckman, R. M.

1995-01-01

Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) orbit determination and prediction are supported by the Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). TDRS System (TDRSS)-user satellites require predicted TDRS ephemerides that are up to 10 weeks in length. Previously, long-term ephemerides generated by the FDF included predictions from the White Sands Complex (WSC), which plans and executes TDRS maneuvers. TDRSs typically have monthly stationkeeping maneuvers, and predicted postmaneuver state vectors are received from WSC up to a month in advance. This paper presents the results of an analysis performed in the FDF to investigate more accurate and economical long-term ephemerides for the TDRSs. As a result of this analysis, two new methods for generating long-term TDRS ephemeris predictions have been implemented by the FDF. The Center-of-Box (COB) method models a TDRS as fixed at the center of its stationkeeping box. Using this method, long-term ephemeris updates are made semiannually instead of weekly. The impulse method is used to model more maneuvers. The impulse method yields better short-term accuracy than the COB method, especially for larger stationkeeping boxes. The accuracy of the impulse method depends primarily on the accuracy of maneuver date forecasting.

Monsoon Variability in the Arabian Sea from Global 0.08 deg HYCOM Simulations

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

modes to help explain the series of events leading up to the anomalous behavior in the SC, the GW and upwelling strength . WORK COMPLETED...Number: N00014-15-1-2189 LONG-TERM GOALS The Arabian Sea upper ocean circulation switches direction seasonally due to the change in direction ...of the prevailing winds associated with the Indian Monsoon. Predictability of the monsoon circulation however is uncertain due to incomplete

Solidarity.com: is there a link between offline behavior and online donations?

PubMed

Eller, Anja

2008-10-01

Solidarity websites, such as The Hunger Site, where people can donate food at no financial cost and minimal effort, have become immensely popular and effective since 1999. These new forms of philanthropy are characterized by wide participation and direct assistance and feedback. The present longitudinal, quasi-experimental study aimed to examine whether online solidarity can be predicted by offline contact with, attitudes about, and altruistic behavior tendencies towards a population in need, asylum seekers. Fifty-seven university students completed two surveys, separated by 1 year. Prior to T1, only 9% of respondents had visited solidarity websites, while at T2 47% reported clicking. Multiple regression analysis showed that T2 visits to solidarity websites were (negatively) predicted by T1 quantity of contact, and marginally, by T1 general evaluation of asylum seekers. These long-term, offline-to-online effects are intriguing, although there were no effects of offline contact quality and altruistic behavior tendencies. Future research should further investigate the causal direction between offline and online behavior and the factors that might influence the link between offline and online attitudes and behavior.

School outcomes of aggressive-disruptive children: prediction from kindergarten risk factors and impact of the fast track prevention program.

PubMed

Bierman, Karen L; Coie, John; Dodge, Kenneth; Greenberg, Mark; Lochman, John; McMohan, Robert; Pinderhughes, Ellen

2013-01-01

A multi-gate screening process identified 891 children with aggressive-disruptive behavior problems at school entry. Fast Track provided a multi-component preventive intervention in the context of a randomized-controlled design. In addition to psychosocial support and skill training for parents and children, the intervention included intensive reading tutoring in first grade, behavioral management consultation with teachers, and the provision of homework support (as needed) through tenth grade. This study examined the impact of the intervention, as well as the impact of the child's initial aggressive-disruptive behaviors and associated school readiness skills (cognitive ability, reading readiness, attention problems) on academic progress and educational placements during elementary school (Grades 1-4) and during the secondary school years (Grades 7-10), as well as high school graduation. Child behavior problems and skills at school entry predicted school difficulties (low grades, grade retention, placement in a self-contained classroom, behavior disorder classification, and failure to graduate). Disappointingly, intervention did not significantly improve these long-term school outcomes. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

School Outcomes of Aggressive-Disruptive Children: Prediction From Kindergarten Risk Factors and Impact of the Fast Track Prevention Program

PubMed Central

Bierman, Karen L.; Coie, John; Dodge, Kenneth; Greenberg, Mark; Lochman, John; McMohan, Robert; Pinderhughes, Ellen

2013-01-01

A multi-gate screening process identified 891 children with aggressive-disruptive behavior problems at school entry. Fast Track provided a multi-component preventive intervention in the context of a randomized-controlled design. In addition to psychosocial support and skill training for parents and children, the intervention included intensive reading tutoring in first grade, behavioral management consultation with teachers, and the provision of homework support (as needed) through tenth grade. This study examined the impact of the intervention, as well as the impact of the child's initial aggressive-disruptive behaviors and associated school readiness skills (cognitive ability, reading readiness, attention problems) on academic progress and educational placements during elementary school (Grades 1–4) and during the secondary school years (Grades 7–10), as well as high school graduation. Child behavior problems and skills at school entry predicted school difficulties (low grades, grade retention, placement in a self-contained classroom, behavior disorder classification, and failure to graduate). Disappointingly, intervention did not significantly improve these long-term school outcomes. PMID:23386568

Peer Rejection and Friendships in Children with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder: Contributions to Long-Term Outcomes

PubMed Central

Molina, Brooke S. G.; Hoza, Betsy; Gerdes, Alyson C.; Hinshaw, Stephen P.; Hechtman, Lily; Arnold, L. Eugene

2012-01-01

Even after evidence-based treatment, Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is associated with poor long-term outcomes. These outcomes may be partly explained by difficulties in peer functioning, which are common among children with ADHD and which do not respond optimally to standard ADHD treatments. We examined whether peer rejection and lack of dyadic friendships experienced by children with ADHD after treatment contribute to long-term emotional and behavioral problems and global impairment, and whether having a reciprocal friend buffers the negative effects of peer rejection. Children with Combined type ADHD (N=300) enrolled in the Multimodal Treatment Study of Children with ADHD (MTA) were followed for 8 years. Peer rejection and dyadic friendships were measured with sociometric assessments after the active treatment period (14 or 24 months after baseline; M ages 9.7 and 10.5 years, respectively). Outcomes included delinquency, depression, anxiety, substance use, and general impairment at 6 and 8 years after baseline (Mean ages 14.9 and 16.8 years, respectively). With inclusion of key covariates, including demographics, symptoms of ADHD, ODD, and CD, and level of the outcome variable at 24 months, peer rejection predicted cigarette smoking, delinquency, anxiety, and global impairment at 6 years and global impairment at 8 years after baseline. Having a reciprocal friend was not, however, uniquely predictive of any outcomes and did not reduce the negative effects of peer rejection. Evaluating and addressing peer rejection in treatment planning may be necessary to improve long-term outcomes in children with ADHD. PMID:22331455

Predictive Validity of the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale for Short-Term Suicidal Behavior: A Danish Study of Adolescents at a High Risk of Suicide.

PubMed

Conway, Paul Maurice; Erlangsen, Annette; Teasdale, Thomas William; Jakobsen, Ida Skytte; Larsen, Kim Juul

2017-07-03

Using the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS), we examined the predictive and incremental predictive validity of past-month suicidal behavior and ideation for short-term suicidal behavior among adolescents at high risk of suicide. The study was conducted in 2014 on a sample of 85 adolescents (90.6% females) who participated at follow-up (85.9%) out of the 99 (49.7%) baseline respondents. All adolescents were recruited from a specialized suicide-prevention clinic in Denmark. Through multivariate logistic regression analyses, we examined whether baseline suicidal behavior predicted subsequent suicidal behavior (actual attempts and suicidal behavior of any type, including preparatory acts, aborted, interrupted and actual attempts; mean follow-up of 80.8 days, SD = 52.4). Furthermore, we examined whether suicidal ideation severity and intensity incrementally predicted suicidal behavior at follow-up over and above suicidal behavior at baseline. Actual suicide attempts at baseline strongly predicted suicide attempts at follow-up. Baseline suicidal ideation severity and intensity did not significantly predict future actual attempts over and above baseline attempts. The suicidal ideation intensity items deterrents and duration were significant predictors of subsequent actual attempts after adjustment for baseline suicide attempts and suicidal behavior of any type, respectively. Suicidal ideation severity and intensity, and the intensity items frequency, duration and deterrents, all significantly predicted any type of suicidal behavior at follow-up, also after adjusting for baseline suicidal behavior. The present study points to an incremental predictive validity of the C-SSRS suicidal ideation scales for short-term suicidal behavior of any type among high-risk adolescents.

Modelling seagrass growth and development to evaluate transplanting strategies for restoration.

PubMed

Renton, Michael; Airey, Michael; Cambridge, Marion L; Kendrick, Gary A

2011-10-01

Seagrasses are important marine plants that are under threat globally. Restoration by transplanting vegetative fragments or seedlings into areas where seagrasses have been lost is possible, but long-term trial data are limited. The goal of this study is to use available short-term data to predict long-term outcomes of transplanting seagrass. A functional-structural plant model of seagrass growth that integrates data collected from short-term trials and experiments is presented. The model was parameterized for the species Posidonia australis, a limited validation of the model against independent data and a sensitivity analysis were conducted and the model was used to conduct a preliminary evaluation of different transplanting strategies. The limited validation was successful, and reasonable long-term outcomes could be predicted, based only on short-term data. This approach for modelling seagrass growth and development enables long-term predictions of the outcomes to be made from different strategies for transplanting seagrass, even when empirical long-term data are difficult or impossible to collect. More validation is required to improve confidence in the model's predictions, and inclusion of more mechanism will extend the model's usefulness. Marine restoration represents a novel application of functional-structural plant modelling.

Microstructure-sensitive Crystal Viscoplasticity for Ni-base Superalloys Targeting Long-term Creep-Fatigue Interaction Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neu, Richard W.

The aim of this project is to develop a microstructure-sensitive crystal viscoplasticity (CVP) model for single-crystal Ni-base superalloys to model the behavior of the material and components in the hot gas path sections of industrial gas turbines (IGT). Microstructure degradation associated with aging critical to predicting long-term creep-fatigue interactions will be embedded into the model through the γ' precipitate morphology evolution by coupling the coarsening drivers and kinetics into the constitutive equations of the CVP model. Model parameters will be determined using new experimental protocols that involve systematically artificially aging the alloy under different stress conditions to determine the relationshipmore » between the size and morphology g' precipitates on the creep and thermomechanical fatigue response.« less

Microstructure-sensitive Crystal Viscoelasticity for Ni-base Superalloys Targeting Long-term Creep-Fatigue Interaction Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neu, Richard W

The aim of this project is to develop a microstructure-sensitive crystal viscoplasticity (CVP) model for single-crystal Ni-base superalloys to model the behavior of the material and components in the hot gas path sections of industrial gas turbines (IGT). Microstructure degradation associated with aging critical to predicting long-term creep-fatigue interactions will be embedded into the model through the γ' precipitate morphology evolution by coupling the coarsening drivers and kinetics into the constitutive equations of the CVP model. Model parameters will be determined using new experimental protocols that involve systematically artificially aging the alloy under different stress conditions to determine the relationshipmore » between the size and morphology g' precipitates on the creep and thermomechanical fatigue response.« less

View-Based Organization and Interplay of Spatial Working and Long-Term Memories

PubMed Central

Röhrich, Wolfgang G.; Hardiess, Gregor; Mallot, Hanspeter A.

2014-01-01

Space perception provides egocentric, oriented views of the environment from which working and long-term memories are constructed. “Allocentric” (i.e. position-independent) long-term memories may be organized as graphs of recognized places or views but the interaction of such cognitive graphs with egocentric working memories is unclear. Here we present a simple coherent model of view-based working and long-term memories, together with supporting evidence from behavioral experiments. The model predicts that within a given place, memories for some views may be more salient than others, that imagery of a target square should depend on the location where the recall takes place, and that recall favors views of the target square that would be obtained when approaching it from the current recall location. In two separate experiments in an outdoor urban environment, pedestrians were approached at various interview locations and asked to draw sketch maps of one of two well-known squares. Orientations of the sketch map productions depended significantly on distance and direction of the interview location from the target square, i.e. different views were recalled at different locations. Further analysis showed that location-dependent recall is related to the respective approach direction when imagining a walk from the interview location to the target square. The results are consistent with a view-based model of spatial long-term and working memories and their interplay. PMID:25409437

The predictive validity of common risk assessment tools in men with intellectual disabilities and problematic sexual behaviors.

PubMed

Fedoroff, J Paul; Richards, Deborah; Ranger, Rebekah; Curry, Susan

2016-10-01

This CIHR-funded study examined whether certain current risk assessment tools were effective in appraising risk of recidivism in a sample of sex offenders with intellectual disabilities (ID). Fifty men with ID who had engaged in problematic sexual behavior (PSB) were followed for an average of 2.5 years. Recidivism was defined and measured as any illegal or problematic behavior, as well as any problematic but not necessarily illegal behavior. At the beginning of the study, each participant was rated on two risk assessment tools: the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG). During each month of follow-up, participants were also rated on the Short-Dynamic Risk Scale (SDRS), an assessment tool intended to measure the risk of future problematic behaviors. Data was analyzed using t-tests, Cohen's d and area under the curve (AUC) to test predictive validity of the assessment tools. Using the AUC, results showed that the VRAG was predictive of sexual (AUC=0.74), sexual and/or violent (AUC=0.71) and of any criminally chargeable event (AUC=0.69). The SORAG was only significantly predictive of sexual events (AUC=0.70) and the SDRS was predictive of violent events (AUC=0.71). The t-test and Cohen's d analyses, which are less robust to deviations from the assumptions of normal and continuous distribution than AUC, did not yield significant results in each category, and therefore, while the results of this study suggest that the VRAG and the SORAG may be effective tools in measuring the short term risk of sexual recidivism; and the VRAG and SDRS may be effective tools in appraising long term risk of sexual and/or violent recidivism in this population, it should be used with caution. Regardless of the assessment tool used, risk assessments should take into account the differences between sex offenders with and without ID to ensure effective measurement. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

ECHO-AGE: an innovative model of geriatric care for long-term care residents with dementia and behavioral issues.

PubMed

Catic, Angela G; Mattison, Melissa L P; Bakaev, Innokentiy; Morgan, Marisa; Monti, Sara M; Lipsitz, Lewis

2014-12-01

To design, implement, and assess the pilot phase of an innovative, remote case-based video-consultation program called ECHO-AGE that links experts in the management of behavior disorders in patients with dementia to nursing home care providers. Pilot study involving surveying of participating long-term care sites regarding utility of recommendations and resident outcomes. Eleven long-term care sites in Massachusetts and Maine. An interprofessional specialty team at a tertiary care center and staff from 11 long-term care sites. Long-term care sites presented challenging cases regarding residents with dementia and/or delirium related behavioral issues to specialists via video-conferencing. Baseline resident characteristics and follow-up data regarding compliance with ECHO-AGE recommendations, resident improvement, hospitalization, and mortality were collected from the long-term care sites. Forty-seven residents, with a mean age of 82 years, were presented during the ECHO-AGE pilot period. Eighty-three percent of residents had a history of dementia and 44% were taking antipsychotic medications. The most common reasons for presentation were agitation, intrusiveness, and paranoia. Behavioral plans were recommended in 72.3% of patients. Suggestions for medication adjustments were also frequent. ECHO-AGE recommendations were completely or partially followed in 88.6% of residents. When recommendations were followed, sites were much more likely to report clinical improvement (74% vs 20%, P < .03). Hospitalization was also less common among residents for whom recommendations were followed. The results suggest that a case-based video-consultation program can be successful in improving the care of elders with dementia and/or delirium related behavioral issues by linking specialists with long-term care providers. Published by Elsevier Inc.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wildung, R E; Drucker, H

Any assessment of the long-term behavior of the transuranics in the terrestrial environment must be based on determination of the factors influencing solubility in soil. The influence of soil properties and abiotic and biotic processes on the long-term solubility of the transuranics entering soils is reviewed in detail. Principal emphasis is directed toward the role of soil microorganisms. Emphasis is given to plutonium, but, where possible, the available information is used to discuss long-term behavior of other transuranics.

Long-term mass transfer and mixing-controlled reactions of a DNAPL plume from persistent residuals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yuan; Illangasekare, Tissa H.; Kitanidis, Peter K.

2014-02-01

Understanding and being able to predict the long-term behavior of DNAPL (i.e., PCE and TCE) residuals after active remediation has ceased have become increasingly important as attention at many sites turns from aggressive remediation to monitored natural attenuation and long-term stewardship. However, plume behavior due to mass loading and reactions during these later phases is less studied as they involve large spatial and temporal scales. We apply both theoretical analysis and pore-scale simulations to investigate mass transfer from DNAPL residuals and subsequent reactions within the generated plume, and, in particular, to show the differences between early- and late-time behaviors of the plume. In the zone of entry of the DNAPL entrapment zone where the concentration boundary layer in the flowing groundwater has not fully developed, the pore-scale simulations confirm the past findings based on laboratory studies that the mass transfer increases as a power-law function of the Peclét number, and is enhanced due to reactions in the plume. Away from the entry zone and further down gradient, the long-term reactions are limited by the available additive and mixing in the porous medium, thereby behave considerably differently from the entry zone. For the reaction between the contaminant and an additive with intrinsic second-order bimolecular kinetics, the late-time reaction demonstrates a first-order decay macroscopically with respect to the mass of the limiting additive, not with respect to that of the contaminant. The late-time decay rate only depends on the intrinsic reaction rate and the solubility of the entrapped DNAPL. At the intermediate time, the additive decays exponentially with the square of time (t2), instead of time (t). Moreover, the intermediate decay rate also depends on the initial conditions, the spatial distribution of DNAPL residuals, and the effective dispersion coefficient.

Learning in Noise: Dynamic Decision-Making in a Variable Environment

PubMed Central

Gureckis, Todd M.; Love, Bradley C.

2009-01-01

In engineering systems, noise is a curse, obscuring important signals and increasing the uncertainty associated with measurement. However, the negative effects of noise and uncertainty are not universal. In this paper, we examine how people learn sequential control strategies given different sources and amounts of feedback variability. In particular, we consider people’s behavior in a task where short- and long-term rewards are placed in conflict (i.e., the best option in the short-term is worst in the long-term). Consistent with a model based on reinforcement learning principles (Gureckis & Love, in press), we find that learners differentially weight information predictive of the current task state. In particular, when cues that signal state are noisy and uncertain, we find that participants’ ability to identify an optimal strategy is strongly impaired relative to equivalent amounts of uncertainty that obscure the rewards/valuations of those states. In other situations, we find that noise and uncertainty in reward signals may paradoxically improve performance by encouraging exploration. Our results demonstrate how experimentally-manipulated task variability can be used to test predictions about the mechanisms that learners engage in dynamic decision making tasks. PMID:20161328

Exploring Behavioral Markers of Long-Term Physical Activity Maintenance: A Case Study of System Identification Modeling within a Behavioral Intervention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hekler, Eric B.; Buman, Matthew P.; Poothakandiyil, Nikhil; Rivera, Daniel E.; Dzierzewski, Joseph M.; Aiken Morgan, Adrienne; McCrae, Christina S.; Roberts, Beverly L.; Marsiske, Michael; Giacobbi, Peter R., Jr.

2013-01-01

Efficacious interventions to promote long-term maintenance of physical activity are not well understood. Engineers have developed methods to create dynamical system models for modeling idiographic (i.e., within-person) relationships within systems. In behavioral research, dynamical systems modeling may assist in decomposing intervention effects…

Behavior Change Strategies for Successful Long-Term Weight Loss: Focusing on Dietary and Physical Activity Adherence, Not Weight Loss

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hongu, Nobuko; Kataura, Martha P.; Block, Linda M.

2011-01-01

This article helps Extension professionals guide individuals in a successful long-term weight loss program. A program should focus on behavioral changes (improving eating habits and physical activity), not just weight loss. In order to do this, Extension professionals should implement behavior change strategies that motivate individuals to…

Timescale Correlation between Marine Atmospheric Exposure and Accelerated Corrosion Testing - Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montgomery, Eliza L.; Calle, Luz Marina; Curran, Jerome C.; Kolody, Mark R.

2012-01-01

Evaluation of metals to predict service life of metal-based structures in corrosive environments has long relied on atmospheric exposure test sites. Traditional accelerated corrosion testing relies on mimicking the exposure conditions, often incorporating salt spray and ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and exposing the metal to continuous or cyclic conditions similar to those of the corrosive environment. Their reliability to correlate to atmospheric exposure test results is often a concern when determining the timescale to which the accelerated tests can be related. Accelerated corrosion testing has yet to be universally accepted as a useful tool in predicting the long-term service life of a metal, despite its ability to rapidly induce corrosion. Although visual and mass loss methods of evaluating corrosion are the standard, and their use is crucial, a method that correlates timescales from accelerated testing to atmospheric exposure would be very valuable. This paper presents work that began with the characterization of the atmospheric environment at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Beachside Corrosion Test Site. The chemical changes that occur on low carbon steel, during atmospheric and accelerated corrosion conditions, were investigated using surface chemistry analytical methods. The corrosion rates and behaviors of panels subjected to long-term and accelerated corrosion conditions, involving neutral salt fog and alternating seawater spray, were compared to identify possible timescale correlations between accelerated and long-term corrosion performance. The results, as well as preliminary findings on the correlation investigation, are presented.

At-sea behavior varies with lunar phase in a nocturnal pelagic seabird, the swallow-tailed gull

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cruz, Sebastian M.; Hooten, Mevin; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; Proaño, Carolina B.; Anderson, David J.; Afanasyev, Vsevolod; Wikelski, Martin

2013-01-01

Strong and predictable environmental variability can reward flexible behaviors among animals. We used long-term records of activity data that cover several lunar cycles to investigate whether behavior at-sea of swallow-tailed gulls Creagrus furcatus, a nocturnal pelagic seabird, varied with lunar phase in the Galápagos Islands. A Bayesian hierarchical model showed that nighttime at-sea activity of 37 breeding swallow-tailed gulls was clearly associated with changes in moon phase. Proportion of nighttime spent on water was highest during darker periods of the lunar cycle, coinciding with the cycle of the diel vertical migration (DVM) that brings prey to the sea surface at night. Our data show that at-sea behavior of a tropical seabird can vary with environmental changes, including lunar phase.

At-sea behavior varies with lunar phase in a nocturnal pelagic seabird, the swallow-tailed gull.

PubMed

Cruz, Sebastian M; Hooten, Mevin; Huyvaert, Kathryn P; Proaño, Carolina B; Anderson, David J; Afanasyev, Vsevolod; Wikelski, Martin

2013-01-01

Strong and predictable environmental variability can reward flexible behaviors among animals. We used long-term records of activity data that cover several lunar cycles to investigate whether behavior at-sea of swallow-tailed gulls Creagrus furcatus, a nocturnal pelagic seabird, varied with lunar phase in the Galápagos Islands. A Bayesian hierarchical model showed that nighttime at-sea activity of 37 breeding swallow-tailed gulls was clearly associated with changes in moon phase. Proportion of nighttime spent on water was highest during darker periods of the lunar cycle, coinciding with the cycle of the diel vertical migration (DVM) that brings prey to the sea surface at night. Our data show that at-sea behavior of a tropical seabird can vary with environmental changes, including lunar phase.

Novel model coupling approach for resilience analysis of coastal plant communities.

PubMed

Schibalski, Anett; Körner, Katrin; Maier, Martin; Jeltsch, Florian; Schröder, Boris

2018-06-04

Resilience is a major research focus covering a wide range of topics from biodiversity conservation to ecosystem (service) management. Model simulations can assess the resilience of, e.g., plant species, measured as the return time to conditions prior to a disturbance. This requires process-based models (PBM) that implement relevant processes like regeneration and reproduction and thus successfully reproduce transient dynamics after disturbances. Such models are often complex and thus limited to either short-term or small-scale applications, whereas many research questions require species predictions across larger spatial and temporal scales. We suggest a framework to couple a PBM and a statistical species distribution model (SDM), which transfers the results of a resilience analysis by the PBM to SDM predictions. The resulting hybrid model combines the advantages of both approaches: the convenient applicability of SDMs and the relevant process detail of PBMs in abrupt environmental change situations. First, we simulate dynamic responses of species communities to a disturbance event with a PBM. We aggregate the response behavior in two resilience metrics: return time and amplitude of the response peak. These metrics are then used to complement long-term SDM projections with dynamic short-term responses to disturbance. To illustrate our framework, we investigate the effect of abrupt short-term groundwater level and salinity changes on coastal vegetation at the German Baltic Sea. We found two example species to be largely resilient, and, consequently, modifications of SDM predictions consisted mostly of smoothing out peaks in the occurrence probability that were not confirmed by the PBM. Discrepancies between SDM- and PBM-predicted species responses were caused by community dynamics simulated in the PBM and absent from the SDM. Although demonstrated with boosted regression trees (SDM) and an existing individual-based model, IBC-grass (PBM), our flexible framework can easily be applied to other PBM and SDM types, as well as other definitions of short-term disturbances or long-term trends of environmental change. Thus, our framework allows accounting for biological feedbacks in the response to short- and long-term environmental changes as a major advancement in predictive vegetation modeling. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Outcomes of the ATHENA (Athletes Targeting Healthy Exercise & Nutrition Alternatives) Program for Female High School Athletes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elliot, Diane L.; Goldberg, Linn; Moe, Esther L.; DeFrancesco, Carol A.; Durham, Melissa B.; McGinnis, Wendy; Lockwood, Chondra

2008-01-01

Adolescence and emerging adulthood are critical windows for establishing life-long behaviors. We assessed long-term outcomes of a prospective randomized harm reduction/health promotion program for female high school athletes. The intervention's immediate beneficial effects on diet pill use and unhealthy eating behaviors have been reported;…

Effects on CO2 Reduction Potential of the Accelerated Introduction of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle in the Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shinoda, Yukio; Yabe, Kuniaki; Tanaka, Hideo; Akisawa, Atsushi; Kashiwagi, Takao

In this paper we consider that there are two economical social behaviors when new technologies are introduced. One is on the short-term economic basis, the other one is on the long-tem economic basis. If we consider a learning curve on the technology, it is more economical than short-term behavior to accelerate the introduction of the technology much wider in the earlier term than that on short-term economic basis. The costs in the accelerated term are higher, but the introduction costs in the later terms are cheaper by learning curve. This paper focuses on the plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). The ways to derive the results on short-term economic basis and the results on long-term economic basis are shown. The result of short-term behaviors can be derived by using the iteration method in which the battery costs in every term are adjusted to the learning curve. The result of long-term behaviors can be derived by seeking to the way where the amount of battery capacity is increased. We also estimate that how much subsidy does it need to get close to results on the long-term economic basis when social behavior is on the short-term economic basis. We assume subsidy for PHEV's initial costs, which can be financed by charging fee on petroleum consumption. In that case, there is no additional cost in the system. We show that the greater the total amount of money to that subsidy is, the less the amount of both CO2 emissions and system costs.

LONG TERM OPERATION ISSUES FOR ELECTRICAL CABLE SYSTEMS IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fifield, Dr Leonard S; Duckworth, Robert C; Glass III, Dr. Samuel W.

Nuclear power plants contain hundreds of kilometers of electrical cables including cables used for power, for instrumentation, and for control. It is essential that safety-related cable systems continue to perform following a design-basis event. Wholesale replacement of electrical cables in existing plants facing licensing period renewal is both impractical and cost-prohibitive. It is therefore important to understand the long term aging of cable materials to have confidence that aged cables will perform when needed. It is equally important in support of cable aging management to develop methods to evaluate the health of installed cables and inform selective cable replacement decisions.more » The most common insulation materials for electrical cables in nuclear power plants are cross-linked polyethylene and ethylene-propylene rubber. The mechanical properties of these materials degrade over time in the presence of environmental stresses including heat, gamma irradiation, and moisture. Mechanical degradation of cable insulation beyond a certain threshold is unacceptable because it can lead to insulation cracking, exposure of energized conductors, arcing and burning or loss of the ability of the cable system to function during a design-basis accident. While thermal-, radiation-, and moisture-related degradation of polymer insulation materials has been extensively studied over the last few decades, questions remain regarding the long-term performance of cable materials in nuclear plant-specific environments. Identified knowledge gaps include an understanding of the temperature-dependence of activation energies for thermal damage and an understanding of the synergistic effects of radiation and thermal stress on polymer degradation. Many of the outstanding questions in the aging behavior of cable materials relate to the necessity of predicting long-term field degradation using accelerated aging results from the laboratory. Materials degrade faster under more extreme conditions, but extension of behavior to long term degradation under more mild conditions, such as those experienced by most installed cables in nuclear power plants, is complicated by the fact that different degradation mechanisms may be involved in extreme and mild scenarios. The discrepancy in predicted results from short term, more extreme exposure and actual results from longer term, more mild exposures can be counter intuitive. For instance, due to the attenuation of oxidation penetration in material samples rapidly aged through exposure to high temperatures, the bulk of the samples may be artificially protected from thermal aging. In another example, simultaneous exposure of cable insulation material to heat and radiation may actually lead to less damage at higher temperatures than may be observed at lower temperatures. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability program of the United States (US) Department of Energy Office (DOE) of Nuclear Energy is funding research to increase the predictive understanding of electrical cable material aging and degradation in existing nuclear power plants in support of continued safe operation of plants beyond their initial license periods. This research includes the evaluation and development of methods to assess installed cable condition.« less

Stochastic Short-term High-resolution Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power Output

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melin, Alexander M.; Olama, Mohammed M.; Dong, Jin

The increased penetration of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy sources into electric grids has increased the need for accurate modeling and prediction of solar irradiance and power production. Existing modeling and prediction techniques focus on long-term low-resolution prediction over minutes to years. This paper examines the stochastic modeling and short-term high-resolution prediction of solar irradiance and PV power output. We propose a stochastic state-space model to characterize the behaviors of solar irradiance and PV power output. This prediction model is suitable for the development of optimal power controllers for PV sources. A filter-based expectation-maximization and Kalman filtering mechanism is employed tomore » estimate the parameters and states in the state-space model. The mechanism results in a finite dimensional filter which only uses the first and second order statistics. The structure of the scheme contributes to a direct prediction of the solar irradiance and PV power output without any linearization process or simplifying assumptions of the signal’s model. This enables the system to accurately predict small as well as large fluctuations of the solar signals. The mechanism is recursive allowing the solar irradiance and PV power to be predicted online from measurements. The mechanism is tested using solar irradiance and PV power measurement data collected locally in our lab.« less

Evolution of neurocognitive function in long-term survivors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated with chemotherapy only.

PubMed

Liu, Wei; Cheung, Yin Ting; Conklin, Heather M; Jacola, Lisa M; Srivastava, DeoKumar; Nolan, Vikki G; Zhang, Hongmei; Gurney, James G; Huang, I-Chan; Robison, Leslie L; Pui, Ching-Hon; Hudson, Melissa M; Krull, Kevin R

2018-06-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the evolution of neurocognitive problems from therapy completion to long-term follow-up in survivors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated with chemotherapy only. We evaluated whether attention problems observed at therapy completion evolve into long-term executive dysfunction in 158 survivors treated on a single institution protocol. Treatment data (high-dose intravenous methotrexate exposure [serum concentration] and triple intrathecal chemotherapy injections) were collected. Parent report of behavior and direct cognitive testing of survivors was conducted at end of therapy, and survivors completed neurocognitive testing when > 5 years post-diagnosis. At the end of chemotherapy, survivors (52% female; mean age 9.2 years) demonstrated higher frequency of impairment in sustained attention (38%) and parent-reported inattention (20%) compared to population expectations (10%). At long-term follow-up, survivors (mean age 13.7 years; 7.6 years post-diagnosis) demonstrated higher impairment in executive function (flexibility 24%, fluency 21%), sustained attention (15%), and processing speed (15%). Sustained attention improved from end of therapy to long-term follow-up (p < 0.001). Higher methotrexate AUC and greater number of intrathecal injections were associated with attention problems (p = 0.009, p = 0.002, respectively) at the end of chemotherapy and executive function (p < 0.001, p = 0.02, respectively) problems at long-term follow-up. Attention problems at the end of therapy were not associated with executive function problems at long-term follow-up (p's > 0.05). The direct effect of chemotherapy exposure predicted outcomes at both time points. Survivors should be monitored for neurocognitive problems well into long-term survivorship, regardless of whether they show attention problems at the end of therapy. Treatment exposures are the best predictor of long-term complications.

Longitudinal examination of peer and partner influences on gender-specific pathways from child abuse to adult crime.

PubMed

Lee, Jungeun Olivia; Herrenkohl, Todd I; Jung, Hyunzee; Skinner, Martie L; Klika, J Bart

2015-09-01

Research provides increasing evidence of the association of child abuse with adult antisocial behavior. However, less is known about the developmental pathways that underlie this association. Building on the life course model of antisocial behavior, the present study examined possible developmental pathways linking various forms of child abuse (physical, emotional, sexual) to adult antisocial behavior. These pathways include child and adolescent antisocial behavior, as well as adulthood measures of partner risk taking, warmth, and antisocial peer influences. Data are from the Lehigh Longitudinal Study, a prospective longitudinal study examining long-term developmental outcomes subsequent to child maltreatment. Participant families in the Lehigh Longitudinal Study were followed from preschool age into adulthood. Analyses of gender differences addressed the consistency of path coefficients across genders. Results for 297 adult participants followed from early childhood showed that, for both genders, physical and emotional child abuse predicted adult crime indirectly through child and adolescent antisocial behavior, as well as adult partner and antisocial peer influences. However, for females, having an antisocial partner predicted an affiliation with antisocial peers, and that in turn predicted adult crime. For males, having an antisocial partner was associated with less partner warmth, which in turn predicted an affiliation with antisocial peers, itself a proximal predictor of adult crime. Sexual abuse also predicted adolescent antisocial behavior, but only for males, supporting what some have called "a delayed-onset pathway" for females, whereby the exposure to early risks produce much later developmental outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting long-term graft survival in adult kidney transplant recipients.

PubMed

Pinsky, Brett W; Lentine, Krista L; Ercole, Patrick R; Salvalaggio, Paolo R; Burroughs, Thomas E; Schnitzler, Mark A

2012-07-01

The ability to accurately predict a population's long-term survival has important implications for quantifying the benefits of transplantation. To identify a model that can accurately predict a kidney transplant population's long-term graft survival, we retrospectively studied the United Network of Organ Sharing data from 13,111 kidney-only transplants completed in 1988- 1989. Nineteen-year death-censored graft survival (DCGS) projections were calculated and compared with the population's actual graft survival. The projection curves were created using a two-part estimation model that (1) fits a Kaplan-Meier survival curve immediately after transplant (Part A) and (2) uses truncated observational data to model a survival function for long-term projection (Part B). Projection curves were examined using varying amounts of time to fit both parts of the model. The accuracy of the projection curve was determined by examining whether predicted survival fell within the 95% confidence interval for the 19-year Kaplan-Meier survival, and the sample size needed to detect the difference in projected versus observed survival in a clinical trial. The 19-year DCGS was 40.7% (39.8-41.6%). Excellent predictability (41.3%) can be achieved when Part A is fit for three years and Part B is projected using two additional years of data. Using less than five total years of data tended to overestimate the population's long-term survival, accurate prediction of long-term DCGS is possible, but requires attention to the quantity data used in the projection method.

Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance.

PubMed

Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

2018-02-01

Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term memory system separate from long-term knowledge. Using natural language corpora, we show experimentally and computationally that performance on three widely used measures of short-term memory (digit span, nonword repetition, and sentence recall) can be predicted from simple associative learning operating on the linguistic environment to which a typical child may have been exposed. The findings support the broad view that short-term verbal memory performance reflects the application of long-term language knowledge to the experimental setting.

Biokinetics of zinc oxide nanoparticles: toxicokinetics, biological fates, and protein interaction

PubMed Central

Choi, Soo-Jin; Choy, Jin-Ho

2014-01-01

Biokinetic studies of zinc oxide (ZnO) nanoparticles involve systematic and quantitative analyses of absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion in plasma and tissues of whole animals after exposure. A full understanding of the biokinetics provides basic information about nanoparticle entry into systemic circulation, target organs of accumulation and toxicity, and elimination time, which is important for predicting the long-term toxic potential of nanoparticles. Biokinetic behaviors can be dependent on physicochemical properties, dissolution property in biological fluids, and nanoparticle–protein interaction. Moreover, the determination of biological fates of ZnO nanoparticles in the systemic circulation and tissues is critical in interpreting biokinetic behaviors and predicting toxicity potential as well as mechanism. This review focuses on physicochemical factors affecting the biokinetics of ZnO nanoparticles, in concert with understanding bioavailable fates and their interaction with proteins. PMID:25565844

Dieting and unhealthy weight control behaviors during adolescence: Associations with 10-year changes in body mass index

PubMed Central

Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Wall, Melanie; Story, Mary; Standish, Amber R

2011-01-01

Background Dieting and unhealthy weight control behaviors are common among adolescents and questions exist regarding their long-term effect on weight status. Objective To examine 10-year longitudinal associations between dieting and unhealthy weight control behaviors and changes in body mass index (BMI) from adolescence to young adulthood. Methods and Procedures A diverse population-based sample of middle school and high school adolescents was followed for 10 years. Participants (N=1,902) completed surveys in 1998–99 (Project EAT-I), 2003–04 (Project EAT-II), and 2008–09 (Project EAT-III). Dieting and unhealthy weight control behaviors at Time 1 and Time 2 were used to predict 10-year changes in BMI at Time 3, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and Time 1 BMI. Results Dieting and unhealthy weight control behaviors at both Time 1 and Time 2 predicted greater BMI increases at Time 3 in males and females, as compared to no use of these behaviors. For example, females using unhealthy weight control behaviors at both Time 1 and Time 2 increased their BMI by 4.63 units as compared to 2.29 units in females not using these behaviors (p<.001). Associations were found in both overweight and non-overweight respondents. Specific weight control behaviors at Time 1 that predicted larger BMI increases at Time 3 included skipping meals and reporting eating very little (females and males), use of food substitutes (males), and diet pill use (females). Conclusions Findings clearly indicate that dieting and unhealthy weight control behaviors, as reported by adolescents, predict significant weight gain over time. PMID:22188838

Executive functioning deficits in young adult survivors of bronchopulmonary dysplasia.

PubMed

Gough, Aisling; Linden, Mark A; Spence, Dale; Halliday, Henry L; Patterson, Christopher C; McGarvey, Lorcan

2015-01-01

To assess long-term impairments of executive functioning in adult survivors of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). Participants were assessed on measures of executive functioning, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and social functioning. Survivors of BPD (n = 63; 34 males; mean age 24.2 years) were compared with groups comprising preterm (without BPD) (<1500 g; n = 45) and full-term controls (n = 63). Analysis of variance was used to explore differences among groups for outcome measures. Multiple regression analyzes were performed to identify factors predictive of long-term outcomes. Significantly more BPD adults, compared with preterm and term controls, showed deficits in executive functioning relating to problem solving (OR: 5.1, CI: 1.4-19.3), awareness of behavior (OR: 12.7, CI: 1.5-106.4) and organization of their environment (OR: 13.0, CI: 1.6-107.1). Birth weight, HRQoL and social functioning were predictive of deficits in executive functioning. This study represents the largest sample of survivors into adulthood of BPD and is the first to show that deficits in executive functioning persist. Children with BPD should be assessed to identify cognitive impairments and allow early intervention aimed at ameliorating their effects. Implications for Rehabilitation Adults born preterm with very-low birth weight, and particularly those who develop BPD, are at increased risk of exhibiting defects in executive functioning. Clinicians and educators should be made aware of the impact that BPD can have on the long-term development of executive functions. Children and young adults identified as having BPD should be periodically monitored to identify the need for possible intervention.

A model of excitation and adaptation in bacterial chemotaxis.

PubMed Central

Hauri, D C; Ross, J

1995-01-01

We present a model of the chemotactic mechanism of Escherichia coli that exhibits both initial excitation and eventual complete adaptation to any and all levels of stimulus ("exact" adaptation). In setting up the reaction network, we use only known interactions and experimentally determined cytosolic concentrations. Whenever possible, rate coefficients are first assigned experimentally measured values; second, we permit some variation in these rate coefficients by using a multiple-well optimization technique and incremental adjustment to obtain values that are sufficient to engender initial response to stimuli (excitation) and an eventual return of behavior to baseline (adaptation). The predictions of the model are similar to the observed behavior of wild-type bacteria in regard to the time scale of excitation in the presence of both attractant and repellent. The model predicts a weaker response to attractant than that observed experimentally, and the time scale of adaptation does not depend as strongly upon stimulant concentration as does that for wild-type bacteria. The mechanism responsible for long-term adaptation is local rather than global: on addition of a repellent or attractant, the receptor types not sensitive to that attractant or repellent do not change their average methylation level in the long term, although transient changes do occur. By carrying out a phenomenological simulation of bacterial chemotaxis, we find that the model is insufficiently sensitive to effect taxis in a gradient of attractant. However, by arbitrarily increasing the sensitivity of the motor to the tumble effector (phosphorylated CheY), we can obtain chemotactic behavior. Images FIGURE 6 FIGURE 7 PMID:7696522

Dynamic-compliance and viscosity of PET and PEN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weick, Brian L.

2016-05-01

Complex dynamic-compliance and in-phase dynamic-viscosity data are presented and analyzed for PET and PEN advanced polyester substrates used for magnetic tapes. Frequency-temperature superposition is used to predict long-term behavior. Temperature and frequency ranges for the primary glass transition and secondary transitions are discussed and compared for PET and PEN. Shift factors from frequency-temperature superposition are used to determine activation energies for the transitions, and WLF parameters are determined for the polyester substrates.

Dynamic-compliance and viscosity of PET and PEN

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weick, Brian L.

Complex dynamic-compliance and in-phase dynamic-viscosity data are presented and analyzed for PET and PEN advanced polyester substrates used for magnetic tapes. Frequency-temperature superposition is used to predict long-term behavior. Temperature and frequency ranges for the primary glass transition and secondary transitions are discussed and compared for PET and PEN. Shift factors from frequency-temperature superposition are used to determine activation energies for the transitions, and WLF parameters are determined for the polyester substrates.

Social and Behavioral Outcomes following Childhood Traumatic Brain Injury: What Predicts Outcome at 12 Months Post-Insult?

PubMed

Catroppa, Cathy; Hearps, Stephen; Crossley, Louise; Yeates, Keith; Beauchamp, Miriam; Fusella, Jessica; Anderson, Vicki

2017-04-01

This study sought to investigate social and behavioral outcomes 12 months following childhood traumatic brain injury (TBI) and to identify predictors of these outcomes. The study also compared rates of impairment in social and behavioral outcomes at 12 months post-injury between children with TBI and a typically developing (TD) control group. The study comprised 114 children ages 5.5 to 16.0 years, 79 with mild, moderate, or severe TBI and 35 TD children, group-matched for age, sex and socio-economic status. Children with TBI were recruited via consecutive hospital admissions and TD children from the community. Social and behavioral outcomes were measured via parent-rated questionnaires. Analysis of covariance models identified a significant mean difference between the mild and moderate groups for social problems only, but the moderate and severe TBI groups showed a higher rate of impairment, particularly in externalizing problems. Pre-injury function, injury severity, parent mental health, and child self-esteem all contributed significantly to predicting social and behavioral outcomes. Both injury and non-injury factors should be considered when identifying children at risk for long-term difficulties in social and behavioral domains.

Macroscopic behavior and fluctuation-dissipation response of stochastic ecohydrological systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porporato, A. M.

2017-12-01

The coupled dynamics of water, carbon and nutrient cycles in ecohydrological systems is forced by unpredictable and intermittent hydroclimatic fluctuations at different time scales. While modeling and long-term prediction of these complex interactions often requires a probabilistic approach, the resulting stochastic equations however are only solvable in special cases. To obtain information on the behavior of the system one typically has to resort to approximation methods. Here we discuss macroscopic equations for the averages and fluctuation-dissipation estimates for the general correlations between the forcing and the ecohydrological response for the soil moisture-plant biomass interaction and the problem of primary salinization and nitrogen retention in soils.

Long-Term Effects of Interparental Violence and Child Physical Maltreatment Experiences on PTSD and Behavior Problems: A National Survey of Taiwanese College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shen, April Chiung-Tao

2009-01-01

Objectives: This study investigated the joint long-term impact of witnessing interparental violence and experiencing child physical maltreatment on young adults' trauma symptoms and behavior problems. It also explored Chinese traditional beliefs as a possible contributor to young adults' trauma and behavior. Methods: This study used self-reporting…

Two-Year Follow-Up of a Sexual Health Promotion Program for Spanish Adolescents.

PubMed

Espada, Jose P; Escribano, Silvia; Morales, Alexandra; Orgilés, Mireia

2017-12-01

The aim is to evaluate the effects of the Competencias para adolescentes con una sexualidad saludable (COMPAS) program and compare them with an evidence-based program ( ¡Cuídate!) and a control group (CG). Eighteen public high schools were randomly assigned to one of the three experimental conditions. Initially, 1,563 Spanish adolescents between 14 and 16 years of age participated, and 24 months after their implementation, 635 of them completed a survey. Self-report measures collected data on sexual behavior, knowledge, attitudes, intention, sexual risk perception, and perceived norm. Compared to the CG, COMPAS increased the level of knowledge about sexually transmitted infections and improved the attitudes toward people living with human immunodeficiency virus at the 2-year follow-up. Neither intervention had a long-term impact on behavioral variables. Results suggest that COMPAS has a comparable impact to the other intervention on the variables predicting consistent condom use. Reinforcing the messages and skills that have the greatest impact on condom use and adding booster sessions following program completion as strategies to maintain long-term effects are necessary.

Investigation of the Behavior of Hardening Masonry Exposed to Variable Stresses

PubMed Central

Šlivinskas, Tomas; Jonaitis, Bronius; Marčiukaitis, Jonas Gediminas

2018-01-01

This paper analyzes the behavior of masonry under variable loads during execution (construction stage). It specifies the creep coefficient for calcium silicate brick masonry, presenting the research data of masonry deformation under variable and constant long-term loads. The interaction of separate layers of composite material in masonry is introduced and the formulae for determining long-term deformations are offered. The research results of masonry’s compressive strength and deformation properties under variable and constant long-term loads are presented. These are then compared to calculated ones. According to the presented comparison, the calculated long-term deformations coincide quite well with those determined experimentally. PMID:29710802

Investigation of the Behavior of Hardening Masonry Exposed to Variable Stresses.

PubMed

Šlivinskas, Tomas; Jonaitis, Bronius; Marčiukaitis, Jonas Gediminas; Zavalis, Robertas

2018-04-28

This paper analyzes the behavior of masonry under variable loads during execution (construction stage). It specifies the creep coefficient for calcium silicate brick masonry, presenting the research data of masonry deformation under variable and constant long-term loads. The interaction of separate layers of composite material in masonry is introduced and the formulae for determining long-term deformations are offered. The research results of masonry’s compressive strength and deformation properties under variable and constant long-term loads are presented. These are then compared to calculated ones. According to the presented comparison, the calculated long-term deformations coincide quite well with those determined experimentally.

Treatment Techniques and Outcomes in Multidimensional Family Therapy for Adolescent Behavior Problems

PubMed Central

Hogue, Aaron; Dauber, Sarah; Samuolis, Jessica; Liddle, Howard A.

2010-01-01

The link between treatment techniques and long-term treatment outcome was examined in an empirically supported family-based treatment for adolescent drug abuse. Observational ratings of therapist interventions were used to predict outcomes at 6 and 12 months posttreatment for 63 families receiving multidimensional family therapy. Greater use of in-session family-focused techniques predicted reduction in internalizing symptoms and improvement in family cohesion. Greater use of family-focused techniques also predicted reduced externalizing symptoms and family conflict, but only when adolescent focus was also high. In addition, greater use of adolescent-focused techniques predicted improvement in family cohesion and family conflict. Results suggest that both individual and multiperson interventions can exert an influential role in family-based therapy for clinically referred adolescents. PMID:17176187

Modelling seagrass growth and development to evaluate transplanting strategies for restoration

PubMed Central

Renton, Michael; Airey, Michael; Cambridge, Marion L.; Kendrick, Gary A.

2011-01-01

Background and Aims Seagrasses are important marine plants that are under threat globally. Restoration by transplanting vegetative fragments or seedlings into areas where seagrasses have been lost is possible, but long-term trial data are limited. The goal of this study is to use available short-term data to predict long-term outcomes of transplanting seagrass. Methods A functional–structural plant model of seagrass growth that integrates data collected from short-term trials and experiments is presented. The model was parameterized for the species Posidonia australis, a limited validation of the model against independent data and a sensitivity analysis were conducted and the model was used to conduct a preliminary evaluation of different transplanting strategies. Key Results The limited validation was successful, and reasonable long-term outcomes could be predicted, based only on short-term data. Conclusions This approach for modelling seagrass growth and development enables long-term predictions of the outcomes to be made from different strategies for transplanting seagrass, even when empirical long-term data are difficult or impossible to collect. More validation is required to improve confidence in the model's predictions, and inclusion of more mechanism will extend the model's usefulness. Marine restoration represents a novel application of functional–structural plant modelling. PMID:21821624

Prolonged Financial Distress After the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Predicts Behavioral Health.

PubMed

Buckingham-Howes, Stacy; Holmes, Katherine; Glenn Morris, J; Grattan, Lynn M

2018-03-13

The economic impact of disasters is well known; however, the link between financial loss and behavioral health problems is unknown. Participants included 198 adults of ages 21 to 82, living within 10 miles of the Gulf Coast during the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and were involved in the fishing, harvesting, seafood processing, or service/tourism industries. The functional impact of financial resource loss at 2.5 years post spill was measured using the 26-item Financial Life Events Checklist (FLEC). Individuals responded to financial distress by reducing social events and utility bills and changing food-shopping habits. The FLEC significantly predicted higher drug use (Drug Abuse Screening Test), alcohol use (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test), mood problems (Profile of Mood States), and depressive symptoms (Beck Depression Inventory II) (p values ≤ 0.05) 4.5 years after the spill. This preliminary study supports the notion that the functional impact of financial loss has a long-term impact on behavioral health after an oil spill.

Intention to receive the seasonal influenza vaccine among nurses working in a long-term care facility.

PubMed

Shahar, Irit; Mendelson, Gad; Ben Natan, Merav

2017-04-01

The factors affecting influenza vaccine uptake among nurses might vary between different medical facilities. The purpose of the present study was to explore factors that affect the intention of nurses at a long-term care facility to receive the influenza vaccine and whether the health belief model predicts this intention. In this cross-sectional quantitative correlational study, a convenience sample of 150 nurses employed at a large long-term care facility in central Israel completed a questionnaire based on the health belief model. Data collection took place between January and February of 2016. Forty-two percent of the respondents reported having been vaccinated against influenza in the current year. The health belief model explained 53% of the variance (p < .01), with perceived (personal) benefits of the vaccine being the most significant factor. The number of times of receiving the influenza vaccine in the past was strongly correlated with the intention to receive the vaccine (p < .01). To improve nurses' compliance with influenza vaccination at long-term care facilities, we find that it is necessary to emphasize the benefits of vaccination and, particularly, the personal benefits. Annual vaccination behavior should be promoted to make it become a routine. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Long-Term Evolution of Email Networks: Statistical Regularities, Predictability and Stability of Social Behaviors.

PubMed

Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Guimerà, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta

2016-01-01

In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical patterns, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of social ties and of individuals' social strength. At the same time, we find that individuals have social signatures and communication strategies that are remarkably stable over the scale of several years.

The Sleeper Effect of Intimate Partner Violence Exposure: Long-Term Consequences on Young Children's Aggressive Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holmes, Megan R.

2013-01-01

Background: Children who have been exposed to intimate partner violence (IPV) experience a wide variety of short-term social adjustment and emotional difficulties, including externalizing behavioral problems such as aggression. While children are affected by IPV at all ages, little is known about the long-term consequences of IPV exposure at…

Addictive behaviors related to opioid use for chronic pain: a population-based study.

PubMed

Højsted, Jette; Ekholm, Ola; Kurita, Geana Paula; Juel, Knud; Sjøgren, Per

2013-12-01

The growing body of research showing increased opioid use in patients with chronic pain coupled with concerns regarding addiction encouraged the development of this population-based study. The goal of the study was to investigate the co-occurrence of indicators of addictive behaviors in patients with chronic non-cancer pain in long-term opioid treatment. The study combined data from the individual-based Danish Health Survey in 2010 and the official Danish health and socio-economic, individual-based registers. From a simple random sample of 25,000 adults (16 years or older) living in Denmark, 13,281 individuals were analyzed through multiple logistic regression analyses to assess the association between chronic pain (lasting ≥6 months), opioid use, health behavior, and body mass index. Six potential addictive behaviors were identified: daily smoking; high alcohol intake; illicit drug use in the past year; obesity; long-term use of benzodiazepines; and long-term use of benzodiazepine-related drugs. At least 2 of the 6 addictive behaviors were observed in 22.6% of the long-term opioid users with chronic pain compared with 11.5% of the non-opioid users with chronic pain and 8.9% of the individuals without chronic pain. Thus, a strong association was demonstrated between long-term opioid use and the clustering of addictive behaviors. An intricate relationship between chronic pain, opioid use, and addictive behaviors was observed in this study, which deserves both clinical attention and further research. Copyright © 2013 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Why computational models are better than verbal theories: the case of nonword repetition.

PubMed

Jones, Gary; Gobet, Fernand; Freudenthal, Daniel; Watson, Sarah E; Pine, Julian M

2014-03-01

Tests of nonword repetition (NWR) have often been used to examine children's phonological knowledge and word learning abilities. However, theories of NWR primarily explain performance either in terms of phonological working memory or long-term knowledge, with little consideration of how these processes interact. One theoretical account that focuses specifically on the interaction between short-term and long-term memory is the chunking hypothesis. Chunking occurs because of repeated exposure to meaningful stimulus items, resulting in the items becoming grouped (or chunked); once chunked, the items can be represented in short-term memory using one chunk rather than one chunk per item. We tested several predictions of the chunking hypothesis by presenting 5-6-year-old children with three tests of NWR that were either high, medium, or low in wordlikeness. The results did not show strong support for the chunking hypothesis, suggesting that chunking fails to fully explain children's NWR behavior. However, simulations using a computational implementation of chunking (namely CLASSIC, or Chunking Lexical And Sub-lexical Sequences In Children) show that, when the linguistic input to 5-6-year-old children is estimated in a reasonable way, the children's data are matched across all three NWR tests. These results have three implications for the field: (a) a chunking account can explain key NWR phenomena in 5-6-year-old children; (b) tests of chunking accounts require a detailed specification both of the chunking mechanism itself and of the input on which the chunking mechanism operates; and (c) verbal theories emphasizing the role of long-term knowledge (such as chunking) are not precise enough to make detailed predictions about experimental data, but computational implementations of the theories can bridge the gap. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Long-Term Creep and Creep Rupture Behavior of Woven Ceramic Matrix Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haque, A.; Rahman, M.; Mach, A.; Jeelani, S.; Verrilli, Michael J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Tensile creep behavior of SiC/SiNC ceramic matrix composites at elevated temperatures and at various stress levels have been investigated for turbine engine applications. The objective of this research is to present creep behavior of SiC/SiCN composites at stress levels above and below the monotonic proportional limit strength and predict the life at creep rupture conditions. Tensile creep-rupture tests were performed on an Instron 8502 servohydraulic testing machine at constant load conditions up to a temperature limit of 1000 C. Individual creep curves indicate three stages such as primary, secondary, and tertiary. The creep rate increased linearly at an early stage and then gradually became exponential at higher strains. The stress exponent and activation energy were also obtained at 700 and 1000 C. The specimen lifetime was observed to be 55 hrs at 121 MPa and at 700 C. The life span reduced to 35 hrs at 143 MPa and at 1000 C. Scanning electron microscopy observations revealed significant changes in the crystalline phases and creep damage development. Creep failures were accompanied by extensive fiber pullout, matrix cracking, and debonding along with fiber fracture. The creep data was applied to Time-Temperature-Stress superposition model and the Manson-Haferd parametric model for long-time life prediction.

Predictability of a favorable outcome in anorexia nervosa.

PubMed

Deter, H C; Schellberg, D; Köpp, W; Friederich, H C; Herzog, W

2005-03-01

In a long-term follow-up of anorexia nervosa (AN) patients, somatic, psychological and social variables at clinical presentation should be investigated using a multilevel approach. This study isolated predictors known from the literature over longer time periods and carried out a separate investigation of predictors in a sample of 81 AN patients of the Heidelberg-Mannheim study over a mean period of 12 years (range 9-19 years). Separate hierarchic regression analyses on the basis of the course of the Morgan-Russell categories were calculated for four individually recorded areas: anamnestic, psychological, somatic and social data sets. Age at the onset of the disease, purging behavior, low serum albumin, high glutamic-oxalo acetic transaminase (GOT) psychopathology (ANSS) and social pathology had the highest predictive value qualities. In survival analysis overall assessment of all six main predictors at clinical presentation could differentiate all patients who recovered from those who remained ill (log-rank test P = 0.019). A small number of variables were important for detecting a good or poor long-term course of AN. At onset of the disease, it seems necessary to evaluate these psychological, somatic and social predictors.

Long-term trends in fire behavior and changes in population at risk

EPA Science Inventory

Long-term trends in fire behavior and changes in population at risk Rappold AG, Peterson GC, US EPA Matt Jolly, USFS Air pollution regulations and technological advances have successfully reduced emissions of air pollutants from many anthropogenic sources in recent decades. Duri...

The Cerebellum and Neurodevelopmental Disorders.

PubMed

Stoodley, Catherine J

2016-02-01

Cerebellar dysfunction is evident in several developmental disorders, including autism, attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and developmental dyslexia, and damage to the cerebellum early in development can have long-term effects on movement, cognition, and affective regulation. Early cerebellar damage is often associated with poorer outcomes than cerebellar damage in adulthood, suggesting that the cerebellum is particularly important during development. Differences in cerebellar development and/or early cerebellar damage could impact a wide range of behaviors via the closed-loop circuits connecting the cerebellum with multiple cerebral cortical regions. Based on these anatomical circuits, behavioral outcomes should depend on which cerebro-cerebellar circuits are affected. Here, we briefly review cerebellar structural and functional differences in autism, ADHD, and developmental dyslexia, and discuss clinical outcomes following pediatric cerebellar damage. These data confirm the prediction that abnormalities in different cerebellar subregions produce behavioral symptoms related to the functional disruption of specific cerebro-cerebellar circuits. These circuits might also be crucial to structural brain development, as peri-natal cerebellar lesions have been associated with impaired growth of the contralateral cerebral cortex. The specific contribution of the cerebellum to typical development may therefore involve the optimization of both the structure and function of cerebro-cerebellar circuits underlying skill acquisition in multiple domains; when this process is disrupted, particularly in early development, there could be long-term alterations of these neural circuits, with significant impacts on behavior.

The cerebellum and neurodevelopmental disorders

PubMed Central

Stoodley, Catherine J.

2015-01-01

Cerebellar dysfunction is evident in several developmental disorders, including autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and developmental dyslexia, and damage to the cerebellum early in development can have long-term effects on movement, cognition, and affective regulation. Early cerebellar damage is often associated with poorer outcomes than cerebellar damage in adulthood, suggesting that the cerebellum is particularly important during development. Differences in cerebellar development and/or early cerebellar damage could impact a wide range of behaviors via the closed-loop circuits connecting the cerebellum with multiple cerebral cortical regions. Based on these anatomical circuits, behavioral outcomes should depend on which cerebro-cerebellar circuits are affected. Here, we briefly review cerebellar structural and functional differences in autism, ADHD, and developmental dyslexia, and discuss clinical outcomes following pediatric cerebellar damage. These data confirm the prediction that abnormalities in different cerebellar subregions produce behavioral symptoms related to the functional disruption of specific cerebro-cerebellar circuits. These circuits might also be crucial to structural brain development, as peri-natal cerebellar lesions have been associated with impaired growth of the contralateral cerebral cortex. The specific contribution of the cerebellum to typical development may therefore involve the optimization of both the structure and function of cerebro-cerebellar circuits underlying skill acquisition in multiple domains; when this process is disrupted, particularly in early development, there could be long-term alterations of these neural circuits, with significant impacts on behavior. PMID:26298473

Healthy, wealthy, and wise: retirement planning predicts employee health improvements.

PubMed

Gubler, Timothy; Pierce, Lamar

2014-09-01

Are poor physical and financial health driven by the same underlying psychological factors? We found that the decision to contribute to a 401(k) retirement plan predicted whether an individual acted to correct poor physical-health indicators revealed during an employer-sponsored health examination. Using this examination as a quasi-exogenous shock to employees' personal-health knowledge, we examined which employees were more likely to improve their health, controlling for differences in initial health, demographics, job type, and income. We found that existing retirement-contribution patterns and future health improvements were highly correlated. Employees who saved for the future by contributing to a 401(k) showed improvements in their abnormal blood-test results and health behaviors approximately 27% more often than noncontributors did. These findings are consistent with an underlying individual time-discounting trait that is both difficult to change and domain interdependent, and that predicts long-term individual behaviors in multiple dimensions. © The Author(s) 2014.

Long-Term Survival Prediction for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Validation of the ASCERT Model Compared With The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality.

PubMed

Lancaster, Timothy S; Schill, Matthew R; Greenberg, Jason W; Ruaengsri, Chawannuch; Schuessler, Richard B; Lawton, Jennifer S; Maniar, Hersh S; Pasque, Michael K; Moon, Marc R; Damiano, Ralph J; Melby, Spencer J

2018-05-01

The recently developed American College of Cardiology Foundation-Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Collaboration on the Comparative Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategy (ASCERT) Long-Term Survival Probability Calculator is a valuable addition to existing short-term risk-prediction tools for cardiac surgical procedures but has yet to be externally validated. Institutional data of 654 patients aged 65 years or older undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting between 2005 and 2010 were reviewed. Predicted survival probabilities were calculated using the ASCERT model. Survival data were collected using the Social Security Death Index and institutional medical records. Model calibration and discrimination were assessed for the overall sample and for risk-stratified subgroups based on (1) ASCERT 7-year survival probability and (2) the predicted risk of mortality (PROM) from the STS Short-Term Risk Calculator. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate additional perioperative variables contributing to death. Overall survival was 92.1% (569 of 597) at 1 year and 50.5% (164 of 325) at 7 years. Calibration assessment found no significant differences between predicted and actual survival curves for the overall sample or for the risk-stratified subgroups, whether stratified by predicted 7-year survival or by PROM. Discriminative performance was comparable between the ASCERT and PROM models for 7-year survival prediction (p < 0.001 for both; C-statistic = 0.815 for ASCERT and 0.781 for PROM). Prolonged ventilation, stroke, and hospital length of stay were also predictive of long-term death. The ASCERT survival probability calculator was externally validated for prediction of long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting in all risk groups. The widely used STS PROM performed comparably as a predictor of long-term survival. Both tools provide important information for preoperative decision making and patient counseling about potential outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigation of long-term prestress losses in pretensioned high performance concrete girders.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-01-01

Effective determination of long-term prestress losses is important in the design of prestressed concrete bridges. Over-predicting prestress losses results in an overly conservative design for service load stresses, and under-predicting prestress loss...

Circulating complexes between tumour necrosis factor-alpha and etanercept predict long-term efficacy of etanercept in juvenile idiopathic arthritis.

PubMed

Kahn, Robin; Berthold, Elisabet; Gullstrand, Birgitta; Schmidt, Tobias; Kahn, Fredrik; Geborek, Pierre; Saxne, Tore; Bengtsson, Anders A; Månsson, Bengt

2016-04-01

The relationship between tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) and drug survival had not been studied in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), and there were no laboratory tests to predict the long-term efficacy of biological drugs for JIA. We studied whether serum levels of TNF-α, free or bound to etanercept, could predict long-term efficacy of etanercept in children with JIA. We included 41 biologic-naïve patients with JIA who started treatment with etanercept at Skåne University Hospital between 1999 and 2010. Serum taken at the start of treatment and at the six-week follow-up were analysed for TNF-α and the long-term efficacy of etanercept was assessed using the drug survival time. Levels of TNF-α increased significantly at the six-week follow-up, and this was almost exclusively comprised of TNF-α in complex with etanercept. The increase in TNF-α showed a dose-dependent correlation to long-term drug survival (p < 0.01). Increasing levels of circulating TNF-α at treatment initiation predicted long-term efficacy of etanercept in children with JIA, which may have been due to different pathophysiological mechanisms of inflammation. Our result may provide a helpful clinical tool, as high levels of circulating TNF-α/etanercept complexes could be used as a marker for the long-term efficacy of etanercept. ©2015 The Authors. Acta Paediatrica published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

Short- and long-term antidepressant effects of ketamine in a rat chronic unpredictable stress model.

PubMed

Jiang, Yinghong; Wang, Yiqiang; Sun, Xiaoran; Lian, Bo; Sun, Hongwei; Wang, Gang; Du, Zhongde; Li, Qi; Sun, Lin

2017-08-01

This research was aimed to evaluate the behaviors of short- or long-term antidepressant effects of ketamine in rats exposed to chronic unpredictable stress (CUS). Ketamine, a glutamate noncompetitive NMDA receptor antagonist, regulates excitatory amino acid functions, such as anxiety disorders and major depression, and plays an important role in synaptic plasticity and learning and memory. After 42 days of CUS model, male rats received either a single injection of ketamine (10 mg/kg; day 43) or 15 daily injections (days 43-75). The influence of ketamine on behavioral reactivity was assessed 24 hr (short-term) or 7 weeks after ketamine treatment (long-term). Behavioral tests used to assess the effects of these treatments included the sucrose preference (SP), open field (OF), elevated plus maze (EPM), forced swimming (FS), and water maze (WM) to detect anxiety-like behavior (OF and EPM), forced swimming (FS), and water maze (WM). Results: Short-term ketamine administration resulted in increases of body weight gain, higher sensitivity to sucrose, augmented locomotor activity in the OF, more entries into the open arms of the EPM, along increased activity in the FS test; all responses indicative of reductions in depression/despair in anxiety-eliciting situations. No significant differences in these behaviors were obtained under conditions of long-term ketamine administration ( p  > .05). The CUS + Ketamine group showed significantly increased activity as compared with the CUS + Vehicle group for analysis of the long-term effects of ketamine (* p  < .05). Nor were significant differences obtained in learning and memory performance in rats receiving ketamine ( p  > .05). Taken together these findings demonstrate that a short-term administration of ketamine induced rapid antidepressant-like effects in adult male rats exposed to CUS conditions, effects that were not observed in response to the long-term treatment regime.

How Do You Motivate Long-Term Behavior Change to Prevent Cancer?

Cancer.gov

John P. Pierce PhD, a professor in the Department of Family and Preventive Medicine at the University of California, San Diego and Director of Population Science at Moores Cancer Center, presented "How Do You Motivate Long-Term Behavior Change to Prevent Cancer?" 

Reliability and Validity of the Work and Well-Being Inventory (WBI) for Employees.

PubMed

Vendrig, A A; Schaafsma, F G

2018-06-01

Purpose The purpose of this study is to measure the psychometric properties of the Work and Wellbeing Inventory (WBI) (in Dutch: VAR-2), a screening tool that is used within occupational health care and rehabilitation. Our research question focused on the reliability and validity of this inventory. Methods Over the years seven different samples of workers, patients and sick listed workers varying in size between 89 and 912 participants (total: 2514), were used to measure the test-retest reliability, the internal consistency, the construct and concurrent validity, and the criterion and predictive validity. Results The 13 scales displayed good internal consistency and test-retest reliability. The constructive validity of the WBI could clearly be demonstrated in both patients and healthy workers. Confirmative factor analyses revealed a CFI >.90 for all scales. The depression scale predicted future work absenteeism (>6 weeks) because of a common mental disorder in healthy workers. The job strain scale and the illness behavior scale predicted long term absenteeism (>3 months) in workers with short-term absenteeism. The illness behavior scale moderately predicted return to work in rehab patients attending an intensive multidisciplinary program. Conclusions The WBI is a valid and reliable tool for occupational health practitioners to screen for risk factors for prolonged or future sickness absence. With this tool they will have reliable indications for further advice and interventions to restore the work ability.

At–Sea Behavior Varies with Lunar Phase in a Nocturnal Pelagic Seabird, the Swallow-Tailed Gull

PubMed Central

Cruz, Sebastian M.; Hooten, Mevin; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; Proaño, Carolina B.; Anderson, David J.; Afanasyev, Vsevolod; Wikelski, Martin

2013-01-01

Strong and predictable environmental variability can reward flexible behaviors among animals. We used long-term records of activity data that cover several lunar cycles to investigate whether behavior at-sea of swallow-tailed gulls Creagrus furcatus, a nocturnal pelagic seabird, varied with lunar phase in the Galápagos Islands. A Bayesian hierarchical model showed that nighttime at-sea activity of 37 breeding swallow-tailed gulls was clearly associated with changes in moon phase. Proportion of nighttime spent on water was highest during darker periods of the lunar cycle, coinciding with the cycle of the diel vertical migration (DVM) that brings prey to the sea surface at night. Our data show that at-sea behavior of a tropical seabird can vary with environmental changes, including lunar phase. PMID:23468889

The 4-D approach to visual control of autonomous systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dickmanns, Ernst D.

1994-01-01

Development of a 4-D approach to dynamic machine vision is described. Core elements of this method are spatio-temporal models oriented towards objects and laws of perspective projection in a foward mode. Integration of multi-sensory measurement data was achieved through spatio-temporal models as invariants for object recognition. Situation assessment and long term predictions were allowed through maintenance of a symbolic 4-D image of processes involving objects. Behavioral capabilities were easily realized by state feedback and feed-foward control.

Determination of tube-to-tube support interaction characteristics. [PWR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haslinger, K.H.

Tube-to-tube support interaction characteristics were determined on a multi-span tube geometry representative of the hot-leg side of the C-E, System 80 steam generator design. Results will become input for an autoclave type wear test program on steam generator tubes, performed by Kraftwerk Union (KWU). Correlation of test data reported here with similar data obtained from the wear tests will be performed in an attempt to make predictions about the long-term fretting behavior of steam generator tubes.

A Simplified Model of Choice Behavior under Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Lin, Ching-Hung; Lin, Yu-Kai; Song, Tzu-Jiun; Huang, Jong-Tsun; Chiu, Yao-Chu

2016-01-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007). Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU) model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002) to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated that models with the prospect utility (PU) function are more effective than the EU models in the IGT (Ahn et al., 2008). Nevertheless, after some preliminary tests based on our behavioral dataset and modeling, it was determined that the Ahn et al. (2008) PU model is not optimal due to some incompatible results. This study aims to modify the Ahn et al. (2008) PU model to a simplified model and used the IGT performance of 145 subjects as the benchmark data for comparison. In our simplified PU model, the best goodness-of-fit was found mostly as the value of α approached zero. More specifically, we retested the key parameters α, λ, and A in the PU model. Notably, the influence of the parameters α, λ, and A has a hierarchical power structure in terms of manipulating the goodness-of-fit in the PU model. Additionally, we found that the parameters λ and A may be ineffective when the parameter α is close to zero in the PU model. The present simplified model demonstrated that decision makers mostly adopted the strategy of gain-stay loss-shift rather than foreseeing the long-term outcome. However, there are other behavioral variables that are not well revealed under these dynamic-uncertainty situations. Therefore, the optimal behavioral models may not have been found yet. In short, the best model for predicting choice behavior under dynamic-uncertainty situations should be further evaluated. PMID:27582715

Long-Term Habituation of the C-Start Escape Response in Zebrafish Larvae

PubMed Central

Roberts, Adam C.; Pearce, Kaycey C.; Choe, Ronny C.; Alzagatiti, Joseph B.; Yeung, Anthony K.; Bill, Brent R.; Glanzman, David L.

2016-01-01

The cellular and molecular basis of long-term memory in vertebrates remains poorly understood. Knowledge regarding long-term memory has been impeded by the enormous complexity of the vertebrate brain, particularly the mammalian brain, as well as by the relative complexity of the behavioral alterations examined in most studies of long-term memory in vertebrates. Here, we demonstrate a long-term form of nonassociative learning—specifically, long-term habituation (LTH)—of a simple reflexive escape response, the C-start, in zebrafish larvae. The C-start is triggered by the activation of one of a pair of giant neurons in the zebrafish’s hindbrain, the Mauthner cells. We show that LTH of the C-start requires the activity of NMDA receptors and involves macromolecular synthesis. We further show that the long-term habituated reflex can by rapidly dishabituated by a brief tactile stimulus. Our results set the stage for rigorous, mechanistic investigations of the long-term memory for habituation of a reflexive behavioral response, one that is mediated by a relatively simple, neurobiologically tractable, neural circuit. Moreover, the demonstration of NMDAR and transcriptionally dependent LTH in a translucent vertebrate organism should facilitate the use of optical recording, and optogenetic manipulation, of neuronal activity to elucidate the cellular basis of a long-term vertebrate memory. PMID:27555232

Few long-term consequences after prolonged maternal separation in female Wistar rats

PubMed Central

Abelson, Klas S. P.; Nylander, Ingrid; Roman, Erika

2017-01-01

Environmental factors during the early-life period are known to have long-term consequences for the adult phenotype. An intimate interplay between genes and environment shape the individual and may affect vulnerability for psychopathology in a sex-dependent manner. A rodent maternal separation model was here used to study the long-term effects of different early-life rearing conditions on adult behavior, HPA axis activity and long-term voluntary alcohol intake in female rats. Litters were subjected to 15 min (MS15) or 360 min (MS360) of daily maternal separation during postnatal day 1–21. In adulthood, the behavioral profiles were investigated using the multivariate concentric square field™ (MCSF) test or examined for HPA axis reactivity by cat-odor exposure with subsequent characterization of voluntary alcohol intake and associated changes in HPA axis activity. Adult female MS360 offspring showed mostly no, or only minor, effects on behavior, HPA axis reactivity and long-term alcohol intake relative to MS15. Instead, more pronounced effects were found dependent on changes in the natural hormonal cycle or by the choice of animal supplier. However, changes were revealed in corticosterone load after long-term alcohol access, as females subjected to MS360 had higher concentrations of fecal corticosterone. The present findings are in line with and expand on previous studies on the long-term effects of maternal separation in female rats with regard to behavior, HPA axis activity and voluntary alcohol intake. It can also be a window into further studies detailing how early-life experiences interact with other risk and protective factors to impact the adult phenotype and how possible sex differences play a role. PMID:29267376

Impact of long-term care insurance on institutional dementia care in Japan.

PubMed

Ito, Hiroto; Miyamoto, Yuki

2003-06-01

Japan started long-term care insurance for nursing and home help services in April 2000 to cope with growing medical expenditures for the population aged over 65. To study the impact of the new insurance on utilization of dementia care, we compared demographic and clinical characteristics including diagnosis, degree of disability and behavioral disturbance before and after the launch among people with dementia covered by either long-term care or medical insurance. The subjects of the study were randomly selected patients/residents of specialized dementia care units in both psychiatric hospitals and geriatric care facilities before (1145 patients/residents in early 2000) and after (262 for medical insurance and 205 for long-term care insurance in 2001) the new system was launched. Although patients/residents in 2000 and 2001 were similar as a whole, the 2001 sample showed differences between patients in each of the types of insurance systems. Logistic regression analysis revealed that patients/residents covered by long-term care insurance were significantly more likely to be females and require higher levels of care. Patients covered by long-term care insurance were significantly less likely to be transferred from a psychiatric department nor did they display behavioral disturbance or an inability to put out or deal with fire. These results suggest that health care facilities have shifted to the new insurance system for patients requiring higher levels of care but without behavioral disturbances as it was intended. On the other hand, there were policy concerns of that demented persons with moderate activities of daily living impairments and behavioral disturbances would be at risk being excluded from the long-term care scheme.

Is Life better after motor cortex stimulation for pain control? Results at long-term and their prediction by preoperative rTMS.

PubMed

André-Obadia, Nathalie; Mertens, Patrick; Lelekov-Boissard, Taïssia; Afif, Afif; Magnin, Michel; Garcia-Larrea, Luis

2014-01-01

A positive effect of motor cortex stimulation (MCS) (defined as subjective estimations of pain relief ≥ 30%) has been reported in 55 - 64% of patients. Repetitive magnetic cortical stimulation (rTMS) is considered a predictor of MCS effect. These figures are, however, mostly based on subjective reports of pain intensity, and have not been confirmed in the long-term. This study assessed long-term pain relief (2 - 9 years) after epidural motor cortex stimulation and its pre-operative prediction by rTMS, using both intensity and Quality of Life (QoL) scales. Analysis of the long-term evolution of pain patients treated by epidural motor cortex stimulation, and predictive value of preoperative response to rTMS. University Neurological Hospital Pain Center. Twenty patients suffering chronic pharmaco-resistant neuropathic pain. All patients received first randomized sham vs. active 20 Hz-rTMS, before being submitted to MCS surgery. Postoperative pain relief was evaluated at 6 months and then up to 9 years post-MCS (average 6.1 ± 2.6 y) using (i) pain numerical rating scores (NRS); (ii) a combined assessment (CPA) including NRS, drug intake, and subjective quality of life; and (iii) a short questionnaire (HowRu) exploring discomfort, distress, disability, and dependence. Pain scores were significantly reduced by active (but not sham) rTMS and by subsequent MCS. Ten out of 20 patients kept a long-term benefit from MCS, both on raw pain scores and on CPA. The CPA results were strictly comparable when obtained by the surgeon or by a third-party on telephonic survey (r = 0.9). CPA scores following rTMS and long-term MCS were significantly associated (Fisher P = 0.02), with 90% positive predictive value and 67% negative predictive value of preoperative rTMS over long-term MCS results. On the HowRu questionnaire, long-term MCS-related improvement concerned "discomfort" (physical pain) and "dependence" (autonomy for daily activities), whereas "disability" (work, home, and leisure activities) and "distress" (anxiety, stress, depression) did not significantly improve. Limited cohort of patients with inhomogeneous pain etiology. Subjectivity of the reported items by the patient after a variable and long delay after surgery. Predictive evaluation based on a single rTMS session compared to chronic MCS. Half of the patients still retain a significant benefit after 2 - 9 years of continuous MCS, and this can be reasonably predicted by preoperative rTMS. Adding drug intake and QoL estimates to raw pain scores allows a more realistic assessment of long-term benefits and enhance the rTMS predictive value. The aims of this study and its design were approved by the local ethics committee (University Hospitals St Etienne and Lyon, France).

Do guilt- and shame-proneness differentially predict prosocial, aggressive, and withdrawn behaviors during early adolescence?

PubMed

Roos, Sanna; Hodges, Ernest V E; Salmivalli, Christina

2014-03-01

In this short-term longitudinal study, we systematically examined the distinctiveness of guilt- and shame-proneness in early adolescents (N = 395, mean age = 11.8 years) in terms of differential relations with peer reported prosocial behavior, withdrawal, and aggression. Results from structural equation modeling indicated that guilt-proneness concurrently predicted more aggressive and less prosocial behavior as well as subsequent increases in prosocial behavior. Shame-proneness predicted subsequent decreases in prosocial behavior. Although girls reported a greater proneness to experience guilt and shame than boys, the associations between the two dispositional emotions and social behaviors were found to be similar across time and gender. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Long-term oxytocin administration improves social behaviors in a girl with autistic disorder.

PubMed

Kosaka, Hirotaka; Munesue, Toshio; Ishitobi, Makoto; Asano, Mizuki; Omori, Masao; Sato, Makoto; Tomoda, Akemi; Wada, Yuji

2012-08-13

Patients with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) exhibit core autistic symptoms including social impairments from early childhood and mostly show secondary disabilities such as irritability and aggressive behavior based on core symptoms. However, there are still no radical treatments of social impairments in these patients. Oxytocin has been reported to play important roles in multiple social behaviors dependent on social recognition, and has been expected as one of the effective treatments of social impairments of patients with ASDs. We present a case of a 16-year-old girl with autistic disorder who treated by long-term administration of oxytocin nasal spray. Her autistic symptoms were successfully treated by two month administration; the girl's social interactions and social communication began to improve without adverse effects. Her irritability and aggressive behavior also improved dramatically with marked decreases in aberrant behavior checklist scores from 69 to 7. This case is the first to illustrate long-term administration of oxytocin nasal spray in the targeted treatment of social impairments in a female with autistic disorder. This case suggests that long-term nasal oxytocin spray is promising and well-tolerated for treatment of social impairments of patients with ASDs.

Long-term oxytocin administration improves social behaviors in a girl with autistic disorder

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Patients with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) exhibit core autistic symptoms including social impairments from early childhood and mostly show secondary disabilities such as irritability and aggressive behavior based on core symptoms. However, there are still no radical treatments of social impairments in these patients. Oxytocin has been reported to play important roles in multiple social behaviors dependent on social recognition, and has been expected as one of the effective treatments of social impairments of patients with ASDs. Case presentation We present a case of a 16-year-old girl with autistic disorder who treated by long-term administration of oxytocin nasal spray. Her autistic symptoms were successfully treated by two month administration; the girl’s social interactions and social communication began to improve without adverse effects. Her irritability and aggressive behavior also improved dramatically with marked decreases in aberrant behavior checklist scores from 69 to 7. Conclusion This case is the first to illustrate long-term administration of oxytocin nasal spray in the targeted treatment of social impairments in a female with autistic disorder. This case suggests that long-term nasal oxytocin spray is promising and well-tolerated for treatment of social impairments of patients with ASDs. PMID:22888794

Genetic Mapping in Mice Reveals the Involvement of Pcdh9 in Long-Term Social and Object Recognition and Sensorimotor Development.

PubMed

Bruining, Hilgo; Matsui, Asuka; Oguro-Ando, Asami; Kahn, René S; Van't Spijker, Heleen M; Akkermans, Guus; Stiedl, Oliver; van Engeland, Herman; Koopmans, Bastijn; van Lith, Hein A; Oppelaar, Hugo; Tieland, Liselotte; Nonkes, Lourens J; Yagi, Takeshi; Kaneko, Ryosuke; Burbach, J Peter H; Yamamoto, Nobuhiko; Kas, Martien J

2015-10-01

Quantitative genetic analysis of basic mouse behaviors is a powerful tool to identify novel genetic phenotypes contributing to neurobehavioral disorders. Here, we analyzed genetic contributions to single-trial, long-term social and nonsocial recognition and subsequently studied the functional impact of an identified candidate gene on behavioral development. Genetic mapping of single-trial social recognition was performed in chromosome substitution strains, a sophisticated tool for detecting quantitative trait loci (QTL) of complex traits. Follow-up occurred by generating and testing knockout (KO) mice of a selected QTL candidate gene. Functional characterization of these mice was performed through behavioral and neurological assessments across developmental stages and analyses of gene expression and brain morphology. Chromosome substitution strain 14 mapping studies revealed an overlapping QTL related to long-term social and object recognition harboring Pcdh9, a cell-adhesion gene previously associated with autism spectrum disorder. Specific long-term social and object recognition deficits were confirmed in homozygous (KO) Pcdh9-deficient mice, while heterozygous mice only showed long-term social recognition impairment. The recognition deficits in KO mice were not associated with alterations in perception, multi-trial discrimination learning, sociability, behavioral flexibility, or fear memory. Rather, KO mice showed additional impairments in sensorimotor development reflected by early touch-evoked biting, rotarod performance, and sensory gating deficits. This profile emerged with structural changes in deep layers of sensory cortices, where Pcdh9 is selectively expressed. This behavior-to-gene study implicates Pcdh9 in cognitive functions required for long-term social and nonsocial recognition. This role is supported by the involvement of Pcdh9 in sensory cortex development and sensorimotor phenotypes. Copyright © 2015 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Acoustic Behavior of North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis) Mother-Calf Pairs

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Acoustic Behavior of North Atlantic Right Whale ...LONG-TERM GOALS The long-term goal of this project is to quantify the behavior of mother-calf pairs from the North Atlantic right whale ...The primary objectives of this project are to: 1) determine the visual detectability of right whale mother-calf pairs from surface observations

Acoustic Behavior of North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis) Mother-Calf Pairs

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Acoustic Behavior of North Atlantic Right Whale ...LONG-TERM GOALS The long-term goal of this project is to quantify the behavior of mother-calf pairs from the North Atlantic right whale ...The primary objectives of this project are to: 1) determine the visual detectability of right whale mother-calf pairs from surface observations

Effects of calcium leaching on diffusion properties of hardened and altered cement pastes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurumisawa, Kiyofumi; Haga, Kazuko; Hayashi, Daisuke; Owada, Hitoshi

2017-06-01

It is very important to predict alterations in the concrete used for fabricating disposal containers for radioactive waste. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the alteration of cementitious materials caused by calcium leaching when they are in contact with ground water in the long term. To evaluate the long-term transport characteristics of cementitious materials, the microstructural behavior of these materials should be considered. However, many predictive models of transport characteristics focus on the pore structure, while only few such models consider both, the spatial distribution of calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H), portlandite, and the pore spaces. This study focused on the spatial distribution of these cement phases. The auto-correlation function of each phase of cementitious materials was calculated from two-dimensional backscattered electron imaging, and the three-dimensional spatial image of the cementitious material was produced using these auto-correlation functions. An attempt was made to estimate the diffusion coefficient of chloride from the three-dimensional spatial image. The estimated diffusion coefficient of the altered sample from the three-dimensional spatial image was found to be comparable to the measured value. This demonstrated that it is possible to predict the diffusion coefficient of the altered cement paste by using the proposed model.

Autonomous orientation predicts longevity: New findings from the Nun Study.

PubMed

Weinstein, Netta; Legate, Nicole; Ryan, William S; Hemmy, Laura

2018-03-10

Work on longevity has found protective social, cognitive, and emotional factors, but to date we have little understanding of the impact of motivational dynamics. Autonomy orientation, or stable patterns of self-regulation, is theorized to be a protective factor for long-term mental and physical health (Ryan & Deci, 2017), and it is therefore a prime candidate for examining how stable psychosocial factors are linked to longevity, or life expectancy. Essays written in the 1930s by participants in the Nun Study were coded for indicators of an autonomy orientation. These were selected in line with an extensive theoretical literature based in self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 1985). Essays were coded for the propensity for choice in action, susceptibility to pressure, self-reflection, integration of experiences, and parental support for autonomy. These coded variables were used to predict age of death. Using 176 codable essays provided by now-deceased participants, linear regression analyses revealed that choiceful behavior, self-reflection, and parent autonomy support predicted age of death. Participants who demonstrated these stable and beneficial motivational characteristics lived longer. Personality constructs reflecting a healthy form of self-regulation are associated with long-term health. Implications for health interventions are discussed. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Personality Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Neural Conflict–Control Mechanisms Improve Memory for Target Stimuli

PubMed Central

Krebs, Ruth M.; Boehler, Carsten N.; De Belder, Maya; Egner, Tobias

2015-01-01

According to conflict-monitoring models, conflict serves as an internal signal for reinforcing top-down attention to task-relevant information. While evidence based on measures of ongoing task performance supports this idea, implications for long-term consequences, that is, memory, have not been tested yet. Here, we evaluated the prediction that conflict-triggered attentional enhancement of target-stimulus processing should be associated with superior subsequent memory for those stimuli. By combining functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) with a novel variant of a face-word Stroop task that employed trial-unique face stimuli as targets, we were able to assess subsequent (incidental) memory for target faces as a function of whether a given face had previously been accompanied by congruent, neutral, or incongruent (conflicting) distracters. In line with our predictions, incongruent distracters not only induced behavioral conflict, but also gave rise to enhanced memory for target faces. Moreover, conflict-triggered neural activity in prefrontal and parietal regions was predictive of subsequent retrieval success, and displayed conflict-enhanced functional coupling with medial-temporal lobe regions. These data provide support for the proposal that conflict evokes enhanced top-down attention to task-relevant stimuli, thereby promoting their encoding into long-term memory. Our findings thus delineate the neural mechanisms of a novel link between cognitive control and memory. PMID:24108799

Ex-Vessel Core Melt Modeling Comparison between MELTSPREAD-CORQUENCH and MELCOR 2.1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robb, Kevin R.; Farmer, Mitchell; Francis, Matthew W.

System-level code analyses by both United States and international researchers predict major core melting, bottom head failure, and corium-concrete interaction for Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1). Although system codes such as MELCOR and MAAP are capable of capturing a wide range of accident phenomena, they currently do not contain detailed models for evaluating some ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes containing more detailed modeling are available for melt spreading such as MELTSPREAD as well as long-term molten corium-concrete interaction (MCCI) and debris coolability such as CORQUENCH. In a preceding study, Enhanced Ex-Vessel Analysis for Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1: Meltmore » Spreading and Core-Concrete Interaction Analyses with MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH, the MELTSPREAD-CORQUENCH codes predicted the 1F1 core melt readily cooled in contrast to predictions by MELCOR. The user community has taken notice and is in the process of updating their systems codes; specifically MAAP and MELCOR, to improve and reduce conservatism in their ex-vessel core melt models. This report investigates why the MELCOR v2.1 code, compared to the MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH 3.03 codes, yield differing predictions of ex-vessel melt progression. To accomplish this, the differences in the treatment of the ex-vessel melt with respect to melt spreading and long-term coolability are examined. The differences in modeling approaches are summarized, and a comparison of example code predictions is provided.« less

Effects of episodic rainfall on a subterranean estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xiayang; Xin, Pei; Lu, Chunhui; Robinson, Clare; Li, Ling; Barry, D. A.

2017-07-01

Numerical simulations were conducted to examine the effect of episodic rainfall on nearshore groundwater dynamics in a tidally influenced unconfined coastal aquifer, with a focus on both long-term (yearly) and short-term (daily) behavior of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and seawater intrusion (SWI). The results showed nonlinear interactions among the processes driven by rainfall, tides, and density gradients. Rainfall-induced infiltration increased the yearly averaged fresh groundwater discharge to the ocean but reduced the extents of the saltwater wedge and upper saline plume as well as the total rate of seawater circulation through both zones. Overall, the net effect of the interactions led to an increase of the SGD. The nearshore groundwater responded to individual rainfall events in a delayed and cumulative fashion, as evident in the variations of daily averaged SGD and salt stored in the saltwater wedge (quantifying the extent of SWI). A generalized linear model (GLM) along with a Gamma distribution function was developed to describe the delayed and prolonged effect of rainfall events on short-term groundwater behavior. This model validated with results of daily averaged SGD and SWI from the simulations of groundwater and solute transport using independent rainfall data sets, performed well in predicting the behavior of the nearshore groundwater system under the combined influence of episodic rainfall, tides, and density gradients. The findings and developed GLM form a basis for evaluating and predicting SGD, SWI, and associated mass fluxes from unconfined coastal aquifers under natural conditions, including episodic rainfall.

Behavioral Specifications of Reward-Associated Long-Term Memory Enhancement in Humans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wittmann, Bianca C.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Duzel, Emrah

2011-01-01

Recent functional imaging studies link reward-related activation of the midbrain substantia nigra-ventral tegmental area (SN/VTA), the site of origin of ascending dopaminergic projections, with improved long-term episodic memory. Here, we investigated in two behavioral experiments how (1) the contingency between item properties and reward, (2) the…

"Old" Habits Die Hard in a Long-Term Care Facility.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

VanDomelen, Cindy; And Others

Older Americans are suffering from both physical and social losses as they age. These losses are sometimes accompanied by the elderly person's entrance into a long-term care facility. Some researchers have suggested that such facilities fail to maintain the residents' independent behavior. Others contend that behavior is plastic and can be…

Teaching adolescents safe driving and passenger behaviors: effectiveness of the You Hold the Key Teen Driving Countermeasure.

PubMed

King, Keith A; Vidourek, Rebecca A; Love, Jaime; Wegley, Stacey; Alles-White, Monica

2008-01-01

Unsafe driving and passenger behaviors place teens at increased risk for fatal and nonfatal crashes. This study evaluated the short-and long-term efficacy of the You Hold the Key (YHTK) Teen Driving Countermeasure. A two-page survey was completed by high school students at pretest, posttest, and long-term (6-month) posttest. YHTK was associated with significant immediate and long-term improvements in teen seatbelt use, safe driving, and perceived confidence in preventing drunk driving. Compared to pretests, students at immediate and long-term posttest more frequently wore seatbelts when driving or riding, required passengers to wear seatbelts, and limited the number of passengers to the number of seatbelts in the vehicle. Students were more likely at both posttests to avoid drinking and driving and to say no to riding with a friend who had been drinking. YHTK was associated with increases in safe teen driving and passenger behaviors. Success of YHTK is most notably due to its comprehensive nature. Future programs should consider comprehensive strategies when attempting to modify teen behaviors.

Body odor quality predicts behavioral attractiveness in humans.

PubMed

Roberts, S Craig; Kralevich, Alexandra; Ferdenzi, Camille; Saxton, Tamsin K; Jones, Benedict C; DeBruine, Lisa M; Little, Anthony C; Havlicek, Jan

2011-12-01

Growing effort is being made to understand how different attractive physical traits co-vary within individuals, partly because this might indicate an underlying index of genetic quality. In humans, attention has focused on potential markers of quality such as facial attractiveness, axillary odor quality, the second-to-fourth digit (2D:4D) ratio and body mass index (BMI). Here we extend this approach to include visually-assessed kinesic cues (nonverbal behavior linked to movement) which are statistically independent of structural physical traits. The utility of such kinesic cues in mate assessment is controversial, particularly during everyday conversational contexts, as they could be unreliable and susceptible to deception. However, we show here that the attractiveness of nonverbal behavior, in 20 male participants, is predicted by perceived quality of their axillary body odor. This finding indicates covariation between two desirable traits in different sensory modalities. Depending on two different rating contexts (either a simple attractiveness rating or a rating for long-term partners by 10 female raters not using hormonal contraception), we also found significant relationships between perceived attractiveness of nonverbal behavior and BMI, and between axillary odor ratings and 2D:4D ratio. Axillary odor pleasantness was the single attribute that consistently predicted attractiveness of nonverbal behavior. Our results demonstrate that nonverbal kinesic cues could reliably reveal mate quality, at least in males, and could corroborate and contribute to mate assessment based on other physical traits.

The use of logistic regression to enhance risk assessment and decision making by mental health administrators.

PubMed

Menditto, Anthony A; Linhorst, Donald M; Coleman, James C; Beck, Niels C

2006-04-01

Development of policies and procedures to contend with the risks presented by elopement, aggression, and suicidal behaviors are long-standing challenges for mental health administrators. Guidance in making such judgments can be obtained through the use of a multivariate statistical technique known as logistic regression. This procedure can be used to develop a predictive equation that is mathematically formulated to use the best combination of predictors, rather than considering just one factor at a time. This paper presents an overview of logistic regression and its utility in mental health administrative decision making. A case example of its application is presented using data on elopements from Missouri's long-term state psychiatric hospitals. Ultimately, the use of statistical prediction analyses tempered with differential qualitative weighting of classification errors can augment decision-making processes in a manner that provides guidance and flexibility while wrestling with the complex problem of risk assessment and decision making.

State-space prediction model for chaotic time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alparslan, A. K.; Sayar, M.; Atilgan, A. R.

1998-08-01

A simple method for predicting the continuation of scalar chaotic time series ahead in time is proposed. The false nearest neighbors technique in connection with the time-delayed embedding is employed so as to reconstruct the state space. A local forecasting model based upon the time evolution of the topological neighboring in the reconstructed phase space is suggested. A moving root-mean-square error is utilized in order to monitor the error along the prediction horizon. The model is tested for the convection amplitude of the Lorenz model. The results indicate that for approximately 100 cycles of the training data, the prediction follows the actual continuation very closely about six cycles. The proposed model, like other state-space forecasting models, captures the long-term behavior of the system due to the use of spatial neighbors in the state space.

Integration of animal behaviors under stresses with different time courses

PubMed Central

Zheng, Lun; Zheng, Xigeng

2014-01-01

We used animal models of “forced swim stress” and “chronic unpredictable stress”, and tried to reveal whether a passive coping style of high flotation behavior in forced swim stress predicts anhedonia behavior after chronic unpredictable stress, and whether the dopamine system regulates floating and anhedonia behaviors. Our results confirmed that depression-prone rats use “floating behavior” as a coping strategy in forced swim stress and more readily suffer from anhedonia during chronic unpredictable stress. Intraperitoneal injection or nucleus accumbens microinjection of the dopamine 2/3 receptor subtype agonist ropinirole reduced floating behaviors in depression-prone animals, but increased sucrose preference in rats showing anhedonia. These data indicate that floating behavior is a defensive mode that is preferred by susceptible individuals under conditions of acute stress. Simultaneously, these animals more readily experienced anhedonia under long-term stress; that is, they were more readily affected by depression. Our results suggest that dopamine 2/3 receptor subtypes in the nucleus accumbens play an important role in floating behaviors and anhedonia. PMID:25317159

Effects of controlled discontinuation of long-term used antipsychotics on weight and metabolic parameters in individuals with intellectual disability.

PubMed

de Kuijper, Gerda; Mulder, Hans; Evenhuis, Heleen; Visser, Frank; Hoekstra, Pieter J

2013-08-01

Antipsychotics are frequently prescribed agents in individuals with intellectual disability, often for behavioral symptoms. Efficacy of antipsychotics for this is ambiguous, so discontinuation should be considered. Weight gain and metabolic dysregulation are well-known adverse effects of antipsychotics which increase the risk of the metabolic syndrome. We performed a discontinuation study in 99 adults with intellectual disability, living in residential facilities who used antipsychotics for behavioral symptoms for more than 1 year. The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of discontinuation of long-term used antipsychotics on weight, body mass index (BMI), and parameters of the metabolic syndrome and to investigate the influence of genetic polymorphisms and medication factors on these outcomes. Discontinuation of antipsychotics led to a mean decrease of 4 cm waist circumference, of 3.5 kg weight, 1.4 kg/m2 BMI, and 7.1 mm Hg systolic blood pressure. In those participants who had not completely discontinued use of antipsychotics we found a decrease in weight and BMI and an increase in fasting glucose. The presence of the C-allele of serotonin 5-hydroxytryptamine receptor polymorphism rs141334 was associated with higher waist circumference and higher plasma levels of triglycerides and lower levels of high-density lipoprotein. Achievement of complete discontinuation predicted a larger decrease in waist circumference and BMI. In conclusion, results of the study show the beneficial effects of discontinuation of long-term used antipsychotics on metabolic outcomes.

Strain partitioning in shales during elastic and creep deformation observed by synchrotron X-ray micro-tomography.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sone, H.; Cheung, C.; Rivers, M. L.; Wang, Y.; Yu, T.

2016-12-01

Knowledge about the ductile time-dependent constitutive behavior of geological materials is essential when evaluating the long-term integrity of subsurface structures and predicting the long-term geomechanical response of the surrounding formations. To this end, it is not only important to measure the bulk time-dependent behavior but also essential to understand the microscale mechanism by which rocks exhibit time-dependence, because laboratory data needs to be extrapolated to time-scales much beyond laboratory experiments. We conducted long-term creep experiments using Green River shale samples and obtained synchrotron X-ray images during the tests in an attempt to capture the microscale strain-partitioning that occurs within the sample. Shale samples of few millimeter dimensions were stressed up to several tens of MPa by a spring-loaded device within an X-ray transparent load frame, and the load was held constant for up to several months to allow creep deformation. Tomographic images of about 5 micron resolution were reconstructed from images collected at different timings of the experiment, which allows us to investigate where and how much strain localized during elastic and creep deformation. Tracking the position of some outstanding features in the rock texture (e.g. pyrite grains, organic material patches) indicate that strain magnitudes expected from the sample elastic and relaxation modulus can be successfully recovered from the tomographic images. We also attempt to use digital volume correlation to track sub-voxel displacements and to characterize the spatial heterogeneity of the deformation.

The behavioral dynamics of clinical trials.

PubMed

Leventhal, H; Nerenz, D R; Leventhal, E A; Love, R R; Bendena, L M

1991-01-01

Two ways of approaching the design of long-term clinical trials are presented and contrasted. The first, termed the "static" view, emphasizes close adherence to formal rules of study design. The second, termed the "dynamic" view, emphasizes the behavioral aspects of patient participation in trials of long duration. The dynamic view is discussed in detail, with discussion of how recruitment of participants, random assignment to conditions, compliance with protocol, and measurement of outcomes are affected by behavioral dynamics. Data from a recently completed tamoxifen toxicity trial are used to illustrate the points and to focus the discussion of behavioral dynamics on the design of a chemoprevention trial for breast cancer using tamoxifen.

The Additional Contribution of White Matter Hyperintensity Location to Post-stroke Cognitive Impairment: Insights From a Multiple-Lesion Symptom Mapping Study.

PubMed

Zhao, Lei; Wong, Adrian; Luo, Yishan; Liu, Wenyan; Chu, Winnie W C; Abrigo, Jill M; Lee, Ryan K L; Mok, Vincent; Shi, Lin

2018-01-01

White matter hyperintensities (WMH) are common in acute ischemic stroke patients. Although WMH volume has been reported to influence post-stroke cognition, it is still not clear whether WMH location, independent of acute ischemic lesion (AIL) volume and location, contributes to cognitive impairment after stroke. Here, we proposed a multiple-lesion symptom mapping model that considers both the presence of WMH and AIL to measure the additional contribution of WMH locations to post-stroke cognitive impairment. Seventy-six first-ever stroke patients with AILs in the left hemisphere were examined by Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) at baseline and 1 year after stroke. The association between the location of AIL and WMH and global cognition was investigated by a multiple-lesion symptom mapping (MLSM) model based on support vector regression (SVR). To explore the relative merits of MLSM over the existing lesion-symptom mapping approaches with only AIL considered (mass-univariate VLSM and SVR-LSM), we measured the contribution of the significant AIL and/or WMH clusters from these models to post-stroke cognitive impairment. In addition, we compared the significant WMH locations identified by the optimal SVR-MLSM model for cognitive impairment at baseline and 1 year post stroke. The identified strategic locations of WMH significantly contributed to the prediction of MoCA at baseline (short-term) and 1 year (long-term) after stroke independent of the strategic locations of AIL. The significant clusters of WMH for short-term and long-term post-stroke cognitive impairment were mainly in the corpus callosum, corona radiata, and posterior thalamic radiation. We noted that in some regions, the AIL clusters that were significant for short-term outcome were no longer significant for long-term outcome, and interestingly more WMH clusters in these regions became significant for long-term outcome compared to short-term outcome. This indicated that there are some regions where local WMH burden has larger impact than AIL burden on the long-term post-stroke cognitive impairment. In consequence, SVR-MLSM was effective in identifying the WMH locations that have additional impact on post-stroke cognition on top of AIL locations. Such a method can also be applied to other lesion-behavior studies where multiple types of lesions may have potential contributions to a specific behavior.

Chronic Adolescent Δ9-Tetrahydrocannabinol Treatment of Male Mice Leads to Long-Term Cognitive and Behavioral Dysfunction, Which Are Prevented by Concurrent Cannabidiol Treatment.

PubMed

Murphy, Michelle; Mills, Sierra; Winstone, Joanna; Leishman, Emma; Wager-Miller, Jim; Bradshaw, Heather; Mackie, Ken

2017-01-01

Introduction: The high prevalence of adolescent cannabis use, the association between this use and later psychiatric disease, and increased access to high-potency cannabis highlight the need for a better understanding of the long-term effects of adolescent cannabis use on cognitive and behavioral outcomes. Furthermore, increasing Δ 9 -tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) in high-potency cannabis is accompanied by a decrease in cannabidiol (CBD), thus an understanding of the interactions between CBD and THC in the neurodevelopmental effects of THC is also important. The current study examined the immediate and long-term behavioral consequences of THC, CBD, and their combination in a mouse model of adolescent cannabis use. Materials and Methods: Male CD1 mice received daily injections of THC (3 mg/kg), CBD (3 mg/kg), CBD+THC (3 mg/kg each), vehicle, or remained undisturbed in their home cage (no handling/injections), either during adolescence (postnatal day [PND] 28-48) or during early adulthood (PND 69-89). Animals were then evaluated with a battery of behavioral tests 1 day after drug treatment, and again after 42 drug-free days. The tests included the following: open field (day 1), novel object recognition (NOR; day 2), marble burying (day 3), elevated plus maze (EPM; day 4), and Nestlet shredding (day 5). Results: Chronic administration of THC during adolescence led to immediate and long-term impairments in object recognition/working memory, as measured by the NOR task. In contrast, adult administration of THC caused immediate, but not long term, impairment of object/working memory. Adolescent chronic exposure to THC increased repetitive and compulsive-like behaviors, as measured by the Nestlet shredding task. Chronic administration of THC, either during adolescence or during adulthood, led to a delayed increase in anxiety as measured by the EPM. All THC-induced behavioral abnormalities were prevented by the coadministration of CBD+THC, whereas CBD alone did not influence behavioral outcomes. Conclusion: These data suggest that chronic exposure to THC during adolescence leads to some of the behavioral abnormalities common in schizophrenia. Interestingly, CBD appeared to antagonize all THC-induced behavioral abnormalities. These findings support the hypothesis that adolescent THC use can impart long-term behavioral deficits; however, cotreatment with CBD prevents these deficits.

Chronic Adolescent Δ9-Tetrahydrocannabinol Treatment of Male Mice Leads to Long-Term Cognitive and Behavioral Dysfunction, Which Are Prevented by Concurrent Cannabidiol Treatment

PubMed Central

Murphy, Michelle; Mills, Sierra; Winstone, Joanna; Leishman, Emma; Wager-Miller, Jim; Bradshaw, Heather; Mackie, Ken

2017-01-01

Abstract Introduction: The high prevalence of adolescent cannabis use, the association between this use and later psychiatric disease, and increased access to high-potency cannabis highlight the need for a better understanding of the long-term effects of adolescent cannabis use on cognitive and behavioral outcomes. Furthermore, increasing Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) in high-potency cannabis is accompanied by a decrease in cannabidiol (CBD), thus an understanding of the interactions between CBD and THC in the neurodevelopmental effects of THC is also important. The current study examined the immediate and long-term behavioral consequences of THC, CBD, and their combination in a mouse model of adolescent cannabis use. Materials and Methods: Male CD1 mice received daily injections of THC (3 mg/kg), CBD (3 mg/kg), CBD+THC (3 mg/kg each), vehicle, or remained undisturbed in their home cage (no handling/injections), either during adolescence (postnatal day [PND] 28–48) or during early adulthood (PND 69–89). Animals were then evaluated with a battery of behavioral tests 1 day after drug treatment, and again after 42 drug-free days. The tests included the following: open field (day 1), novel object recognition (NOR; day 2), marble burying (day 3), elevated plus maze (EPM; day 4), and Nestlet shredding (day 5). Results: Chronic administration of THC during adolescence led to immediate and long-term impairments in object recognition/working memory, as measured by the NOR task. In contrast, adult administration of THC caused immediate, but not long term, impairment of object/working memory. Adolescent chronic exposure to THC increased repetitive and compulsive-like behaviors, as measured by the Nestlet shredding task. Chronic administration of THC, either during adolescence or during adulthood, led to a delayed increase in anxiety as measured by the EPM. All THC-induced behavioral abnormalities were prevented by the coadministration of CBD+THC, whereas CBD alone did not influence behavioral outcomes. Conclusion: These data suggest that chronic exposure to THC during adolescence leads to some of the behavioral abnormalities common in schizophrenia. Interestingly, CBD appeared to antagonize all THC-induced behavioral abnormalities. These findings support the hypothesis that adolescent THC use can impart long-term behavioral deficits; however, cotreatment with CBD prevents these deficits. PMID:29098186

A single mild fluid percussion injury induces short-term behavioral and neuropathological changes in the Long-Evans rat: support for an animal model of concussion.

PubMed

Shultz, Sandy R; MacFabe, Derrick F; Foley, Kelly A; Taylor, Roy; Cain, Donald P

2011-10-31

Brain concussion is a serious public health concern and is associated with short-term cognitive impairments and behavioral disturbances that typically occur in the absence of significant brain damage. The current study addresses the need to better understand the effects of a mild lateral fluid percussion injury on rat behavior and neuropathology in an animal model of concussion. Male Long-Evans rats received either a single mild fluid percussion injury or a sham-injury, and either a short (24h) or long (4 weeks) post-injury recovery period. After recovery, rats underwent a detailed behavioral analysis consisting of tests for rodent anxiety, cognition, social behavior, sensorimotor function, and depression-like behavior. After testing all rats were sacrificed and brains were examined immunohistochemically with markers for microglia/macrophage activation, reactive astrocytosis, and axonal injury. Injured rats (mean injury force: 1.20 ±.03 atm) displayed significant short-term cognitive impairments in the water maze and significantly more anxiolytic-like behavior in the elevated-plus maze compared to sham controls. Neuropathological analysis of the brains of injured rats showed an acute increase in reactive astrogliosis and activated microglia in cortex and evidence of axonal injury in the corpus callosum. There were no significant long-term effects on any behavioral or neuropathological measure 4 weeks after injury. These short-term behavioral and neuropathological changes are consistent with findings in human patients suffering a brain concussion, and provide further evidence for the use of a single mild lateral fluid percussion injury to study concussion in the rat. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Evolution of Autistic-Like and Schizotypal Traits: A Sexual Selection Hypothesis

PubMed Central

Del Giudice, Marco; Angeleri, Romina; Brizio, Adelina; Elena, Marco R.

2010-01-01

In this paper we present a new hypothesis on the evolution of autistic-like and schizotypal personality traits. We argue that autistic-like and schizotypal traits contribute in opposite ways to individual differences in reproductive and mating strategies, and have been maintained – at least in part – by sexual selection through mate choice. Whereas positive schizotypy can be seen as a psychological phenotype oriented to high-mating effort and good genes displays in both sexes, autistic-like traits in their non-pathological form contribute to a male-typical strategy geared toward high parental investment, low-mating effort, and long-term resource allocation. At the evolutionary-genetic level, this sexual selection hypothesis is consistent with Crespi and Badcock's “imprinted brain” theory of autism and psychosis; the effect of offspring mating behavior on resource flow within the family connects sexual selection with genomic imprinting in the context of human biparental care. We conclude by presenting the results of an empirical study testing one of the predictions derived from our hypothesis. In a sample of 199 college students, autistic-like traits predicted lower interest in short-term mating, higher partner-specific investment, and stronger commitment to long-term romantic relations, whereas positive schizotypy showed the opposite pattern of effects. PMID:21833210

The Ease of Language Understanding (ELU) model: theoretical, empirical, and clinical advances

PubMed Central

Rönnberg, Jerker; Lunner, Thomas; Zekveld, Adriana; Sörqvist, Patrik; Danielsson, Henrik; Lyxell, Björn; Dahlström, Örjan; Signoret, Carine; Stenfelt, Stefan; Pichora-Fuller, M. Kathleen; Rudner, Mary

2013-01-01

Working memory is important for online language processing during conversation. We use it to maintain relevant information, to inhibit or ignore irrelevant information, and to attend to conversation selectively. Working memory helps us to keep track of and actively participate in conversation, including taking turns and following the gist. This paper examines the Ease of Language Understanding model (i.e., the ELU model, Rönnberg, 2003; Rönnberg et al., 2008) in light of new behavioral and neural findings concerning the role of working memory capacity (WMC) in uni-modal and bimodal language processing. The new ELU model is a meaning prediction system that depends on phonological and semantic interactions in rapid implicit and slower explicit processing mechanisms that both depend on WMC albeit in different ways. It is based on findings that address the relationship between WMC and (a) early attention processes in listening to speech, (b) signal processing in hearing aids and its effects on short-term memory, (c) inhibition of speech maskers and its effect on episodic long-term memory, (d) the effects of hearing impairment on episodic and semantic long-term memory, and finally, (e) listening effort. New predictions and clinical implications are outlined. Comparisons with other WMC and speech perception models are made. PMID:23874273

Visibility Graph Based Time Series Analysis.

PubMed

Stephen, Mutua; Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie

2015-01-01

Network based time series analysis has made considerable achievements in the recent years. By mapping mono/multivariate time series into networks, one can investigate both it's microscopic and macroscopic behaviors. However, most proposed approaches lead to the construction of static networks consequently providing limited information on evolutionary behaviors. In the present paper we propose a method called visibility graph based time series analysis, in which series segments are mapped to visibility graphs as being descriptions of the corresponding states and the successively occurring states are linked. This procedure converts a time series to a temporal network and at the same time a network of networks. Findings from empirical records for stock markets in USA (S&P500 and Nasdaq) and artificial series generated by means of fractional Gaussian motions show that the method can provide us rich information benefiting short-term and long-term predictions. Theoretically, we propose a method to investigate time series from the viewpoint of network of networks.

Accelerated Weathering of Fluidized Bed Steam Reformation Material Under Hydraulically Unsaturated Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pierce, Eric M.

2007-09-16

To predict the long-term fate of low- and high-level waste forms in the subsurface over geologic time scales, it is important to understand the behavior of the corroding waste forms under conditions the mimic to the open flow and transport properties of a subsurface repository. Fluidized bed steam reformation (FBSR), a supplemental treatment technology option, is being considered as a waste form for the immobilization of low-activity tank waste. To obtain the fundamental information needed to evaluate the behavior of the FBSR waste form under repository relevant conditions and to monitor the long-term behavior of this material, an accelerated weatheringmore » experiment is being conducted with the pressurized unsaturated flow (PUF) apparatus. Unlike other accelerated weathering test methods (product consistency test, vapor hydration test, and drip test), PUF experiments are conducted under hydraulically unsaturated conditions. These experiments are unique because they mimic the vadose zone environment and allow the corroding waste form to achieve its final reaction state. Results from this on-going experiment suggest the volumetric water content varied as a function of time and reached steady state after 160 days of testing. Unlike the volumetric water content, periodic excursions in the solution pH and electrical conductivity have been occurring consistently during the test. Release of elements from the column illustrates a general trend of decreasing concentration with increasing reaction time. Normalized concentrations of K, Na, P, Re (a chemical analogue for 99Tc), and S are as much as 1 × 104 times greater than Al, Cr, Si, and Ti. After more than 600 days of testing, the solution chemistry data collected to-date illustrate the importance of understanding the long-term behavior of the FBSR product under conditions that mimic the open flow and transport properties of a subsurface repository.« less

Personalized query suggestion based on user behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wanyu; Hao, Zepeng; Shao, Taihua; Chen, Honghui

Query suggestions help users refine their queries after they input an initial query. Previous work mainly concentrated on similarity-based and context-based query suggestion approaches. However, models that focus on adapting to a specific user (personalization) can help to improve the probability of the user being satisfied. In this paper, we propose a personalized query suggestion model based on users’ search behavior (UB model), where we inject relevance between queries and users’ search behavior into a basic probabilistic model. For the relevance between queries, we consider their semantical similarity and co-occurrence which indicates the behavior information from other users in web search. Regarding the current user’s preference to a query, we combine the user’s short-term and long-term search behavior in a linear fashion and deal with the data sparse problem with Bayesian probabilistic matrix factorization (BPMF). In particular, we also investigate the impact of different personalization strategies (the combination of the user’s short-term and long-term search behavior) on the performance of query suggestion reranking. We quantify the improvement of our proposed UB model against a state-of-the-art baseline using the public AOL query logs and show that it beats the baseline in terms of metrics used in query suggestion reranking. The experimental results show that: (i) for personalized ranking, users’ behavioral information helps to improve query suggestion effectiveness; and (ii) given a query, merging information inferred from the short-term and long-term search behavior of a particular user can result in a better performance than both plain approaches.

Influence of changes in initial conditions for the simulation of dynamic systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kotyrba, Martin

2015-03-10

Chaos theory is a field of study in mathematics, with applications in several disciplines including meteorology, sociology, physics, engineering, economics, biology, and philosophy. Chaos theory studies the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions—a paradigm popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Small differences in initial conditions field widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general. This happens even though these systems are deterministic, meaning that their future behavior is fully determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved. In this paperinfluence of changes in initial conditions will bemore » presented for the simulation of Lorenz system.« less

Relationship of Religiousness and Religious Coping with Quality of Life among War Trauma Survivors.

PubMed

Fadilpašić, Senadin; Maleč, Daniel; Džubur-Kulenović, Alma

2017-09-01

Long-term posttraumatic outcomes such as quality of life are dependent on a series of factors from the very exposure to traumatic events and stress appraisals, personality traits, posttraumatic growth, symptoms of Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and different coping strategies to religiousness and religious coping styles. Except of exposure to traumatic events and related stress, all other variables may have indirect mediating effects on long-term posttraumatic outcomes. The main aim of this cross-sectional study is to explore relative independent contribution of these variables in the explanation of quality of life among war trauma survivors, with a special emphasis on the variables of religiousness and religious coping. The research was conducted on 353 subjects who experienced war related traumatic events during the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H). The data was collected through several self-report measuring instruments: Manchester Short Assessment of Quality of Life, Stressors Check List (SCL); Religiousness Scale, Social Support Resources Scale; Religious Problem-Solving Scale, Brief RCOPE, Posttraumatic Growth Inventory and Mississippi Scale for PTSD. According to the results of the study, experience of loss and frequent exposure to war trauma and high levels on the primary stress appraisals, self-directing coping style and PTSD-symptoms were associated with lower perceived quality of life among the subjects. High levels of extrinsic religious orientation, effect of religiousness on social behavior, positive religious coping and posttraumatic growth were associated with higher perceived quality of life among subjects. These variables showed significant independent contribution to the prediction of the values on quality of life. Results of the study have a scientific significance in understanding the importance and mediating role of religiousness and religious coping for quality of life perception as one of long-term posttraumatic outcomes. Effects of religiousness on social behavior and positive religious coping showed particularly significant contribution across all prediction models for the quality of life.

Early Seizure Frequency and Aetiology Predict Long-Term Medical Outcome in Childhood-Onset Epilepsy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sillanpaa, Matti; Schmidt, Dieter

2009-01-01

In clinical practice, it is important to predict as soon as possible after diagnosis and starting treatment, which children are destined to develop medically intractable seizures and be at risk of increased mortality. In this study, we determined factors predictive of long-term seizure and mortality outcome in a population-based cohort of 102…

Short and long-lasting behavioral consequences of agonistic encounters between male Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Trannoy, Séverine; Penn, Jill; Lucey, Kenia; Popovic, David; Kravitz, Edward A

2016-04-26

In many animal species, learning and memory have been found to play important roles in regulating intra- and interspecific behavioral interactions in varying environments. In such contexts, aggression is commonly used to obtain desired resources. Previous defeats or victories during aggressive interactions have been shown to influence the outcome of later contests, revealing loser and winner effects. In this study, we asked whether short- and/or long-term behavioral consequences accompany victories and defeats in dyadic pairings between male Drosophila melanogaster and how long those effects remain. The results demonstrated that single fights induced important behavioral changes in both combatants and resulted in the formation of short-term loser and winner effects. These decayed over several hours, with the duration depending on the level of familiarity of the opponents. Repeated defeats induced a long-lasting loser effect that was dependent on de novo protein synthesis, whereas repeated victories had no long-term behavioral consequences. This suggests that separate mechanisms govern the formation of loser and winner effects. These studies aim to lay a foundation for future investigations exploring the molecular mechanisms and circuitry underlying the nervous system changes induced by winning and losing bouts during agonistic encounters.

Weight-control behaviors and subsequent weight change among adolescents and young adult females123

PubMed Central

Haines, Jess; Rosner, Bernard; Willett, Walter C

2010-01-01

Background: Little is known about the effectiveness of behavioral strategies to prevent long-term weight gain among adolescents and young adults. Objective: The objective was to assess the relation of dietary and physical activity weight-control strategies, alone and together, with subsequent weight change. Design: This was a prospective study of 4456 female adolescents and young adults aged 14–22 y in the ongoing Growing Up Today Study. Weight-control behaviors, including dietary approaches and physical activity, were self-reported in 2001 and were used to predict weight change from 2001 to 2005. Results: In 2001–2002, 23.7% of female adolescents and young adults were trying to maintain their weight and another 54.4% were trying to lose weight. Approximately 25% used each of the following weight-control strategies: not eating snacks, following low-calorie or low-fat diets, and limiting portion sizes. In addition, 47.7% reported exercising at least occasionally for weight control. During 4 y of follow-up, participants gained an average of 3.3 kg. None of the dietary approaches to weight control predicted less weight change; however, females who exercised ≥5 d/wk gained significantly less weight than did their peers (−0.9 kg; 95% CI: −1.4, −0.4). The most successful strategy for weight-gain prevention among the females was to limit portion sizes (−1.9 kg; 95% CI: −2.6, −1.1) combined with frequent exercise. Conclusions: Our results suggest that physical activity is a necessary strategy for long-term weight control among adolescents and young adult females. Combining dietary weight-control approaches with physical activity is the most effective method for reducing weight gain. PMID:19889827

FY15 Report on Thermomechanical Testing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Francis D.; Buchholz, Stuart

2015-08-01

Sandia is participating in the third phase of a United States (US)-German Joint Project that compares constitutive models and simulation procedures on the basis of model calculations of the thermomechanical behavior and healing of rock salt (Salzer et al. 2015). The first goal of the project is to evaluate the ability of numerical modeling tools to correctly describe the relevant deformation phenomena in rock salt under various influences. Among the numerical modeling tools required to address this are constitutive models that are used in computer simulations for the description of the thermal, mechanical, and hydraulic behavior of the host rockmore » under various influences and for the long-term prediction of this behavior. Achieving this goal will lead to increased confidence in the results of numerical simulations related to the secure disposal of radioactive wastes in rock salt. Results of the Joint Project may ultimately be used to make various assertions regarding stability analysis of an underground repository in salt during the operating phase as well as long-term integrity of the geological barrier in the post-operating phase A primary evaluation of constitutive model capabilities comes by way of predicting large-scale field tests. The Joint Project partners decided to model Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Rooms B & D which are full-scale rooms having the same dimensions. Room D deformed under natural, ambient conditions while Room B was thermally driven by an array of waste-simulating heaters (Munson et al. 1988; 1990). Existing laboratory test data for WIPP salt were carefully scrutinized and the partners decided that additional testing would be needed to help evaluate advanced features of the constitutive models. The German partners performed over 140 laboratory tests on WIPP salt at no charge to the US Department of Energy (DOE).« less

Predictors of work status and quality of life 9-13 years after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrahage.

PubMed

Vilkki, Juhani; Juvela, Seppo; Malmivaara, Kirsi; Siironen, Jari; Hernesniemi, Juha

2012-08-01

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) causes long-term psychosocial impairments even in patients who regain functional independence. Little is known about predictors of these impairments. We studied how early clinical data and neuropsychological results predict work status and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) 9-13 years after SAH. One hundred one patients performed a neuropsychological test battery and returned their self-rating and partner's rating of a psychosocial impairment questionnaire approximately 1 year after SAH. These data were analyzed for association to the patients' work status and self-rated HRQoL approximately 10 years later. Age inversely, lower levels of self-rated impairments, employment and higher levels of education at the first follow-up independently predicted employment at the long-term follow-up. Although most cognitive test results were significantly associated with employment status at the long-term follow-up, they were of limited additional value as predictors of work status. The best predictor combination for long-term high HRQoL was good performance in a face recognition test and lower levels of self-rated impairments at the first follow-up as well as male sex. Problems in usual activities at the long-term follow-up were predicted by poor results in the face recognition and in a word list-learning task. Questionnaire ratings of patients' psychosocial impairments 1 year after SAH give important information for the long-term prediction of their work status and HRQoL. In the long run, patients' unemployment becomes strongly associated with higher age, while their performance of usual activities can be predicted with learning and memory results.

Amphetamine Challenge: A Marker of Brain Function That Mediates Risk for Drug and Alcohol Abuse

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-05

sexual behavior, even if the long-term consequences of those behaviors are harmful. In this study the relationship between the response to a stimulant... sexual behavior, even if the long-term consequences may be harmful. When these tendencies occur together, individuals are more likely to try...this characteristic is sometimes associated with poor control. One possibility is that the same neural system—namely, the mesolimbic dopamine system

Use and acceptability of unsupported online computerized cognitive behavioral therapy for depression and associations with clinical outcome.

PubMed

de Graaf, L Esther; Huibers, Marcus J H; Riper, Heleen; Gerhards, Sylvia A H; Arntz, Arnoud

2009-08-01

In a recent randomized trial, we were unable to confirm the previously reported high effectiveness of CCBT. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to have a closer look at usage and acceptability (i.e. expectancy, credibility, and satisfaction) of the intervention. Depressed participants (N=200) were given login codes for unsupported online CCBT. A track-and-trace system tracked which components were used. We used a 9-month follow-up period. Uptake was sufficient, but dropout was high. Many usage indices were positively associated with short-term depressive improvement, whereas only homework was related to long-term improvement. Acceptability was good and expectancy could predict long-term, but not short-term outcome. Associations between use of CCBT and improvement are merely correlational. Our sample was too depressed in relation to the scope of the intervention. We relied on online self-report measures. Analyses were exploratory in nature. Although CCBT might be a feasible and acceptable treatment for depression, means to improve treatment adherence are needed for moderately to severely depressed individuals.

The Duration of Auditory Sensory Memory for Vowel Processing: Neurophysiological and Behavioral Measures.

PubMed

Yu, Yan H; Shafer, Valerie L; Sussman, Elyse S

2018-01-01

Speech perception behavioral research suggests that rates of sensory memory decay are dependent on stimulus properties at more than one level (e.g., acoustic level, phonemic level). The neurophysiology of sensory memory decay rate has rarely been examined in the context of speech processing. In a lexical tone study, we showed that long-term memory representation of lexical tone slows the decay rate of sensory memory for these tones. Here, we tested the hypothesis that long-term memory representation of vowels slows the rate of auditory sensory memory decay in a similar way to that of lexical tone. Event-related potential (ERP) responses were recorded to Mandarin non-words contrasting the vowels /i/ vs. /u/ and /y/ vs. /u/ from first-language (L1) Mandarin and L1 American English participants under short and long interstimulus interval (ISI) conditions (short ISI: an average of 575 ms, long ISI: an average of 2675 ms). Results revealed poorer discrimination of the vowel contrasts for English listeners than Mandarin listeners, but with different patterns for behavioral perception and neural discrimination. As predicted, English listeners showed the poorest discrimination and identification for the vowel contrast /y/ vs. /u/, and poorer performance in the long ISI condition. In contrast to Yu et al. (2017), however, we found no effect of ISI reflected in the neural responses, specifically the mismatch negativity (MMN), P3a and late negativity ERP amplitudes. We did see a language group effect, with Mandarin listeners generally showing larger MMN and English listeners showing larger P3a. The behavioral results revealed that native language experience plays a role in echoic sensory memory trace maintenance, but the failure to find an effect of ISI on the ERP results suggests that vowel and lexical tone memory traces decay at different rates. Highlights : We examined the interaction between auditory sensory memory decay and language experience. We compared MMN, P3a, LN and behavioral responses in short vs. long interstimulus intervals. We found that different from lexical tone contrast, MMN, P3a, and LN changes to vowel contrasts are not influenced by lengthening the ISI to 2.6 s. We also found that the English listeners discriminated the non-native vowel contrast with lower accuracy under the long ISI condition.

Long term impact of emotional, social and cognitive intelligence competencies and GMAT on career and life satisfaction and career success

PubMed Central

Amdurer, Emily; Boyatzis, Richard E.; Saatcioglu, Argun; Smith, Melvin L.; Taylor, Scott N.

2014-01-01

Career scholars have called for a broader definition of career success by inviting greater exploration of its antecedents. While success in various jobs has been predicted by intelligence and in other studies by competencies, especially in management, long term impact of having intelligence and using competencies has not been examined. Even in collegiate outcome studies, few have examined the longer term impact on graduates' careers or lives. This study assesses the impact of demonstrated emotional, social, and cognitive intelligence competencies assessed at graduation and g measured through GMAT at entry from an MBA program on career and life satisfaction, and career success assessed 5 to 19 years after graduation. Using behavioral measures of competencies (i.e., as assessed by others), we found that emotional intelligence competencies predict career satisfaction and success. Adaptability had a positive impact, but influence had the opposite effect on these career measures and life satisfaction. Life satisfaction was negatively affected by achievement orientation and positively affected by teamwork. Current salary, length of marriage, and being younger at time of graduation positively affect all three measures of life and career satisfaction and career success. GMAT (as a measure of g) predicted life satisfaction and career success to a slight but significant degree in the final model analyzed. Meanwhile, being female and number of children positively affected life satisfaction but cognitive intelligence competencies negatively affected it, and in particular demonstrated systems thinking was negative. PMID:25566128

Long term impact of emotional, social and cognitive intelligence competencies and GMAT on career and life satisfaction and career success.

PubMed

Amdurer, Emily; Boyatzis, Richard E; Saatcioglu, Argun; Smith, Melvin L; Taylor, Scott N

2014-01-01

Career scholars have called for a broader definition of career success by inviting greater exploration of its antecedents. While success in various jobs has been predicted by intelligence and in other studies by competencies, especially in management, long term impact of having intelligence and using competencies has not been examined. Even in collegiate outcome studies, few have examined the longer term impact on graduates' careers or lives. This study assesses the impact of demonstrated emotional, social, and cognitive intelligence competencies assessed at graduation and g measured through GMAT at entry from an MBA program on career and life satisfaction, and career success assessed 5 to 19 years after graduation. Using behavioral measures of competencies (i.e., as assessed by others), we found that emotional intelligence competencies predict career satisfaction and success. Adaptability had a positive impact, but influence had the opposite effect on these career measures and life satisfaction. Life satisfaction was negatively affected by achievement orientation and positively affected by teamwork. Current salary, length of marriage, and being younger at time of graduation positively affect all three measures of life and career satisfaction and career success. GMAT (as a measure of g) predicted life satisfaction and career success to a slight but significant degree in the final model analyzed. Meanwhile, being female and number of children positively affected life satisfaction but cognitive intelligence competencies negatively affected it, and in particular demonstrated systems thinking was negative.

Influence of humidity on the phase behavior of API/polymer formulations.

PubMed

Prudic, Anke; Ji, Yuanhui; Luebbert, Christian; Sadowski, Gabriele

2015-08-01

Amorphous formulations of APIs in polymers tend to absorb water from the atmosphere. This absorption of water can induce API recrystallization, leading to reduced long-term stability during storage. In this work, the phase behavior of different formulations was investigated as a function of relative humidity. Indomethacin and naproxen were chosen as model APIs and poly(vinyl pyrrolidone) (PVP) and poly(vinyl pyrrolidone-co-vinyl acetate) (PVPVA64) as excipients. The formulations were prepared by spray drying. The water sorption in pure polymers and in formulations was measured at 25°C and at different values of relative humidity (RH=25%, 50% and 75%). Most water was absorbed in PVP-containing systems, and water sorption was decreasing with increasing API content. These trends could also be predicted in good agreement with the experimental data using the thermodynamic model PC-SAFT. Furthermore, the effect of absorbed water on API solubility in the polymer and on the glass-transition temperature of the formulations was predicted with PC-SAFT and the Gordon-Taylor equation, respectively. The absorbed water was found to significantly decrease the API solubility in the polymer as well as the glass-transition temperature of the formulation. Based on a quantitative modeling of the API/polymer phase diagrams as a function of relative humidity, appropriate API/polymer compositions can now be selected to ensure long-term stable amorphous formulations at given storage conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A phenomenological memristor model for short-term/long-term memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ling; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen; Ahmad, Hafiz Gulfam; Chen, Yiran

2014-08-01

Memristor is considered to be a natural electrical synapse because of its distinct memory property and nanoscale. In recent years, more and more similar behaviors are observed between memristors and biological synapse, e.g., short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM). The traditional mathematical models are unable to capture the new emerging behaviors. In this article, an updated phenomenological model based on the model of the Hewlett-Packard (HP) Labs has been proposed to capture such new behaviors. The new dynamical memristor model with an improved ion diffusion term can emulate the synapse behavior with forgetting effect, and exhibit the transformation between the STM and the LTM. Further, this model can be used in building new type of neural networks with forgetting ability like biological systems, and it is verified by our experiment with Hopfield neural network.

Depletion of Serotonin Selectively Impairs Short-Term Memory without Affecting Long-Term Memory in Odor Learning in the Terrestrial Slug "Limax Valentianus"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santa, Tomofumi; Kirino, Yutaka; Watanabe, Satoshi; Shirahata, Takaaki; Tsunoda, Makoto

2006-01-01

The terrestrial slug "Limax" is able to acquire short-term and long-term memories during aversive odor-taste associative learning. We investigated the effect of the selective serotonergic neurotoxin 5,7-dihydroxytryptamine (5,7-DHT) on memory. Behavioral studies indicated that 5,7-DHT impaired short-term memory but not long-term memory. HPLC…

Lung to head ratio in infants with congenital diaphragmatic hernia does not predict long term pulmonary hypertension.

PubMed

Garcia, Alejandro V; Fingeret, Abbey L; Thirumoorthi, Arul S; Hahn, Eunice; Leskowitz, Matthew J; Aspelund, Gudrun; Krishnan, Usha S; Stolar, Charles J H

2013-01-01

Lung-to-head ratio (LHR) has been used for antenatal evaluation of infants with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). We hypothesized that LHR was predictive of acute and chronic pulmonary hypertension in infants with CDH. Echocardiograms on all inborn infants with CDH (December 2001-March 2011) were reviewed. Echocardiograms at 1 and 3 months post-repair and most recent follow-up were assessed for presence of pulmonary hypertension (PAH). LHR, gestational age, birth weight, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), and death rate were obtained. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed. 106 infants with CDH had LHR obtained at median 28 weeks gestation (median LHR=1.25 [range 0.4-5.3]). Median follow-up was 26.6 months (range 4.6-97.5). The long-term incidence of pulmonary hypertension was 16%. LHR was significantly associated with pulmonary hypertension at one month (p=0.0001) but not at 3 months (p=0.22) or long-term (p=0.54). LHR was predictive of ECMO use (p=0.01) and death (p=0.001). The overall incidence of PAH in infants with CDH decreases over time. Prenatal LHR predicts PAH at one month but not long-term in infants with CDH. The ability for LHR to predict PAH at one month but not long term may suggest remodeling of the pulmonary vasculature over time. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neonatal Sleep-Wake Analyses Predict 18-month Neurodevelopmental Outcomes.

PubMed

Shellhaas, Renée A; Burns, Joseph W; Hassan, Fauziya; Carlson, Martha D; Barks, John D E; Chervin, Ronald D

2017-11-01

The neurological examination of critically ill neonates is largely limited to reflexive behavior. The exam often ignores sleep-wake physiology that may reflect brain integrity and influence long-term outcomes. We assessed whether polysomnography and concurrent cerebral near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) might improve prediction of 18-month neurodevelopmental outcomes. Term newborns with suspected seizures underwent standardized neurologic examinations to generate Thompson scores and had 12-hour bedside polysomnography with concurrent cerebral NIRS. For each infant, the distribution of sleep-wake stages and electroencephalogram delta power were computed. NIRS-derived fractional tissue oxygen extraction (FTOE) was calculated across sleep-wake stages. At age 18-22 months, surviving participants were evaluated with Bayley Scales of Infant Development (Bayley-III), 3rd edition. Twenty-nine participants completed Bayley-III. Increased newborn time in quiet sleep predicted worse 18-month cognitive and motor scores (robust regression models, adjusted r2 = 0.22, p = .007, and 0.27, .004, respectively). Decreased 0.5-2 Hz electroencephalograph (EEG) power during quiet sleep predicted worse 18-month language and motor scores (adjusted r2 = 0.25, p = .0005, and 0.33, .001, respectively). Predictive values remained significant after adjustment for neonatal Thompson scores or exposure to phenobarbital. Similarly, an attenuated difference in FTOE, between neonatal wakefulness and quiet sleep, predicted worse 18-month cognitive, language, and motor scores in adjusted analyses (each p < .05). These prospective, longitudinal data suggest that inefficient neonatal sleep-as quantified by increased time in quiet sleep, lower electroencephalogram delta power during that stage, and muted differences in FTOE between quiet sleep and wakefulness-may improve prediction of adverse long-term outcomes for newborns with neurological dysfunction. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

"I've Actually Changed How I Live"-Patients' Long-Term Perceptions of a Cognitive Behavioral Pain Management Program.

PubMed

Egan, Aine; Lennon, Olive; Power, Camillus K; Fullen, Brona M

2017-02-01

To determine patients’ perceptions regarding cognitive behavioral pain management programs, and to determine what, if any, strategies learned on the program patients continue to use long-term to manage their pain. A qualitative, focus-group based study. An outpatient multidisciplinary pain management program in a university teaching hospital. Patients with chronic pain who had previously completed a 4-week cognitive behavioral pain management program (2001–2014). Sixteen patients attended one of four focus groups. A battery of semi-structured questions explored their perceptions of the cognitive behavioral program, and which strategies they found useful and continued to use long-term to manage their pain. Six key themes emerged: 1) universal long-term positive feedback on the utility of the program; 2) the program facilitated long-term changes in daily life; 3) participants now considered themselves as the “new me”; 4) request for more updates on emerging new treatments/pain knowledge; 5) recognizing that the key to maximizing gain from the program was to be open, to listen, and accept; and 6) participants sharing pain management knowledge with others in pain. There was universal positive feedback for the pain management program. Despite the years since they participated in one, patients continue to use key strategies to effectively manage their pain (pacing, relaxation), embedding them in their daily lives to maximize their quality of life.

[The effects of multimedia-assisted instruction on the skin care learning of nurse aides in long-term care facilities].

PubMed

Wu, Yu-Ling; Kao, Yu-Hsiu

2014-08-01

Skin care is an important responsibility of nurse aides in long-term care facilities, and the nursing knowledge, attitudes, and skills of these aides significantly affects quality of care. However, the work schedule of nurse aides often limits their ability to obtain further education and training. Therefore, developing appropriate and effective training programs for nurse aides is critical to maintaining and improving quality of care in long-term care facilities. This study investigates the effects of multimedia assisted instruction on the skin care learning of nurse aides working in long-term care facilities. A quasi-experimental design and convenient sampling were adopted in this study. Participants included 96 nurse aides recruited from 5 long-term care facilities in Taoyuan County, Taiwan. The experimental group received 3 weeks of multimedia assisted instruction. The control group did not receive this instruction. The Skin Care Questionnaire for Nurse Aides in Long-term Care Facilities and the Skin Care Behavior Checklist were used for assessment before and after the intervention. (1) Posttest scores for skin care knowledge, attitudes, behavior, and the skin care checklist were significantly higher than pretest scores for the intervention group. There was no significant difference between pretest and posttest scores for the control group. (2) A covariance analysis of pretest scores for the two groups showed that the experimental group earned significantly higher average scores than their control group peers for skin care knowledge, attitudes, behavior, and the skin care checklist. The multimedia assisted instruction demonstrated significant and positive effects on the skin care leaning of nurse aides in long-term care facilities. This finding supports the use of multimedia assisted instruction in the education and training of nurse aides in long-term care facilities in the future.

Time perspective and environmental engagement: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Milfont, Taciano L; Wilson, Jessie; Diniz, Pollyane

2012-01-01

Environmental issues entail both a social conflict (private vs. public interests) and a temporal conflict (short- vs. long-term interests). This paper focuses on the role temporal concerns play in influencing environmental engagement by quantitatively integrating results of studies that assessed the associations between time perspective and proenvironmental attitudes and behaviors. The meta-analysis included a total of 19 independent samples and 6,301 participants from seven countries (Australia, Brazil, Germany, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, and the United States). Results showed that the associations between time perspective and proenvironmental behaviors were higher than those for proenvironmental attitudes. Supporting predictions, the associations between future time perspective and proenvironmental behaviors were strong and nontrivial compared to those for the combined past-present time perspective. The findings indicate that future time perspective seems to play an important role in influencing individuals' attitudes and behaviors towards the environment. Implications of the findings for theory and practice are discussed.

First-grade classroom behavior: its short- and long-term consequences for school performance.

PubMed

Alexander, K L; Entwisle, D R; Dauber, S L

1993-06-01

Effects of children's classroom behavior on school performance over a 4-year period are examined for a large, representative panel of beginning first graders. Scales developed from homeroom teachers' ratings of children in the spring of their first, second, and fourth years of school are used to predict spring marks in reading and math and spring scores on verbal and quantitative subtests from the CAT battery. The teachers' ratings cluster in three domains: Interest-Participation (I-P), Cooperation-Compliance (C-C), and Attention Span-Restlessness (A-R). The I-P and A-R ratings, but not C-C ratings, affect test score gains in first grade and marks in all 3 years. Behavior ratings from Year 1 also affect Year 2 and Year 4 performance, with indications that effects are understated over single-year periods. The importance of assessing classroom behavior in a longitudinal framework that allows for lagged and cumulative effects is discussed.

Executive Control Goes to School: Implications of Preschool Executive Performance for Observed Elementary Classroom Learning Engagement

PubMed Central

Nelson, Timothy D.; Nelson, Jennifer Mize; James, Tiffany D.; Clark, Caron A.C.; Kidwell, Katherine M.; Espy, Kimberly Andrews

2017-01-01

The transition to elementary school is accompanied by increasing demands for children to regulate their attention and behavior within the classroom setting. Executive control (EC) may be critical for meeting these demands; however, few studies have rigorously examined the association between EC and observed classroom behavior. This study examined EC in preschool (age 5 years, 3 months) as a predictor of classroom learning engagement behaviors in first grade, using a battery of performance-based EC tasks and live classroom observations in a longitudinal sample of 313 children. Multilevel modeling results indicated that stronger EC predicted more focused engagement and fewer task management and competing responses, controlling for socioeconomic status, child sex, and age at observations. Results suggest that early EC may support subsequent classroom engagement behaviors that are critical for successful transition to elementary school and long-term learning trajectories. PMID:28358540

Marital Processes, Arranged Marriage, and Contraception to Limit Fertility

PubMed Central

Ghimire, Dirgha J.; Axinn, William G.

2013-01-01

An international transition away from familially-arranged marriages toward participation in spouse choice has endured for decades and continues to spread through rural Asia today. Though we know this transformation has important consequences for childbearing early in marriage, we know much less about longer-term consequences of this marital revolution. This study draws upon theories of family and fertility change and a rural Asian panel study designed to investigate changes in both marital and childbearing behaviors to investigate these long-term consequences. Controlling for social changes that shape both marital practices and childbearing behaviors, and explicitly considering multiple dimensions of marital processes, we find evidence consistent with an independent, long-standing association of participation in spouse choice with higher rates of contraception to terminate childbearing. These results add a new dimension to the evidence linking revolutions in marital behavior to long-term declines in fertility, but also motivate new research to consider a broader range of long-term consequences of changing marital processes. PMID:23709184

Neuropeptide Y2 Receptor (NPY2R) Expression in Saliva Predicts Feeding Immaturity in the Premature Neonate

PubMed Central

Maron, Jill L.; Johnson, Kirby L.; Dietz, Jessica A.; Chen, Minghua L.; Bianchi, Diana W.

2012-01-01

Background The current practice in newborn medicine is to subjectively assess when a premature infant is ready to feed by mouth. When the assessment is inaccurate, the resulting feeding morbidities may be significant, resulting in long-term health consequences and millions of health care dollars annually. We hypothesized that the developmental maturation of hypothalamic regulation of feeding behavior is a predictor of successful oral feeding in the premature infant. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed the gene expression of neuropeptide Y2 receptor (NPY2R), a known hypothalamic regulator of feeding behavior, in neonatal saliva to determine its role as a biomarker in predicting oral feeding success in the neonate. Methodology/Principal Findings Salivary samples (n = 116), were prospectively collected from 63 preterm and 13 term neonates (post-conceptual age (PCA) 26 4/7 to 41 4/7 weeks) from five predefined feeding stages. Expression of NPY2R in neonatal saliva was determined by multiplex RT-qPCR amplification. Expression results were retrospectively correlated with feeding status at time of sample collection. Statistical analysis revealed that expression of NPY2R had a 95% positive predictive value for feeding immaturity. NPY2R expression statistically significantly decreased with advancing PCA (Wilcoxon test p value<0.01), and was associated with feeding status (chi square p value  =  0.013). Conclusions/Significance Developmental maturation of hypothalamic regulation of feeding behavior is an essential component of oral feeding success in the newborn. NPY2R expression in neonatal saliva is predictive of an immature feeding pattern. It is a clinically relevant biomarker that may be monitored in saliva to improve clinical care and reduce significant feeding-associated morbidities that affect the premature neonate. PMID:22629465

A behavioral economic reward index predicts drinking resolutions: moderation revisited and compared with other outcomes.

PubMed

Tucker, Jalie A; Roth, David L; Vignolo, Mary J; Westfall, Andrew O

2009-04-01

Data were pooled from 3 studies of recently resolved community-dwelling problem drinkers to determine whether a behavioral economic index of the value of rewards available over different time horizons distinguished among moderation (n = 30), abstinent (n = 95), and unresolved (n = 77) outcomes. Moderation over 1- to 2-year prospective follow-up intervals was hypothesized to involve longer term behavior regulation processes than abstinence or relapse and to be predicted by more balanced preresolution monetary allocations between short-term and longer term objectives (i.e., drinking and saving for the future). Standardized odds ratios (ORs) based on changes in standard deviation units from a multinomial logistic regression indicated that increases on this "Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure" index predicted higher rates of abstinence (OR = 1.93, p = .004) and relapse (OR = 2.89, p < .0001) compared with moderation outcomes. The index had incremental utility in predicting moderation in complex models that included other established predictors. The study adds to evidence supporting a behavioral economic analysis of drinking resolutions and shows that a systematic analysis of preresolution spending patterns aids in predicting moderation.

Predicting long-term absenteeism from work in construction industry: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Hoonakker, Peter; van Duivenbooden, Cor

2012-01-01

In this study we examine whether the Work Ability Index (WAI) has additional value in predicting long-term absenteeism in construction industry. Results of the study show that the WAI has additional value in predicting absenteeism, but that the amount of explained variance is low. This is partly due to the definition of absenteeism in The Netherlands, where this study took place.

Sevoflurane exposure during the neonatal period induces long-term memory impairment but not autism-like behaviors.

PubMed

Chung, Woosuk; Park, Saegeun; Hong, Jiso; Park, Sangil; Lee, Soomin; Heo, Junyoung; Kim, Daesoo; Ko, Youngkwon

2015-10-01

To examine whether neonatal exposure to sevoflurane induces autism-like behaviors in mice. There are continuing reports regarding the potential negative effects of anesthesia on the developing brain. Recently, several studies suggest that neurotoxicity caused by anesthesia may lead to neurodevelopmental impairments. However, unlike reports focusing on learning and memory, there are only a few animal studies focusing on neurodevelopmental disorders after general anesthesia. Therefore, we have focused on autism, a representative neurodevelopmental disorder. Neonatal mice (P6-7) were exposed to a titrated dose of sevoflurane for 6 h. Apoptosis was evaluated by assessing the expression level of cleaved (activated) caspase-3. Autism-like behaviors, general activity, anxiety level, and long-term memory were evaluated with multiple behavioral assays. Western blotting confirmed that neonatal exposure to sevoflurane increased the expression level of activated caspase-3, indicative of apoptosis. Mice exposed to sevoflurane also showed impaired long-term memory in fear tests. However, sevoflurane-exposed mice did not exhibit autism-like features in all of the following assays: social interaction (three-chamber test, caged social interaction), social communication (ultrasonic vocalization test), or repetitive behavior (self-grooming test, digging). There were also no differences in general activity (open field test, home cage activity) and anxiety (open field test, light-dark box) after sevoflurane exposure. Our results confirm previous studies that neonatal sevoflurane exposure causes neurodegeneration and long-term memory impairment in mice. However, sevoflurane did not induce autism-like features. Our study suggests that mice are more vulnerable to long-term memory deficits than autism-like behaviors after exposure to sevoflurane. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Craving Behavior Intervention in Ameliorating College Students' Internet Game Disorder: A Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Deng, Lin-Yuan; Liu, Lu; Xia, Cui-Cui; Lan, Jing; Zhang, Jin-Tao; Fang, Xiao-Yi

2017-01-01

Craving, as a central feature of addiction and a precursor of relapse, is targeted recently in addiction intervention. While Internet gaming disorder (IGD), conceptualized as a behavioral addiction, is lack of effective treatment practice and exploration of its mechanism. This research aims to test the effectiveness and detect the active ingredients of craving behavior intervention (CBI) in mitigation of IGD among young adults. A total of 63 male college students with IGD were assigned into the intervention group (six-session CBI intervention) or the waiting-list control group. Structured questionnaires were administered at pre-intervention (T1), post-intervention (T2), 3-month follow-up (T3), and 6-month follow-up (T4). Compared to the control group, a significant decrease in the severity of IGD in intervention group was found at post-intervention and lasting to 6 months after intervention. The value changes of craving could partially mediate the relationship between intervention and changes of IGD among all effects tests (immediate, T2-T1; short-term, T3-T1; and long-term effects, T4-T1). Further, explorations of the active ingredients of intervention found depression relief and shift of psychological needs from Internet to real life significantly predict craving amelioration at both post-intervention and 6-month follow-up. Although preliminary, the current study provides evidence for the value of craving-aimed intervention practice in IGD treatment and identifies two potential active ingredients for mitigation of craving, and the long-term therapeutic benefits are further conferred. Registry name: The behavioral and brain mechanism of IGD; URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02550405; Registration number: NCT02550405. PMID:28443046

Craving Behavior Intervention in Ameliorating College Students' Internet Game Disorder: A Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Deng, Lin-Yuan; Liu, Lu; Xia, Cui-Cui; Lan, Jing; Zhang, Jin-Tao; Fang, Xiao-Yi

2017-01-01

Craving, as a central feature of addiction and a precursor of relapse, is targeted recently in addiction intervention. While Internet gaming disorder (IGD), conceptualized as a behavioral addiction, is lack of effective treatment practice and exploration of its mechanism. This research aims to test the effectiveness and detect the active ingredients of craving behavior intervention (CBI) in mitigation of IGD among young adults. A total of 63 male college students with IGD were assigned into the intervention group (six-session CBI intervention) or the waiting-list control group. Structured questionnaires were administered at pre-intervention (T1), post-intervention (T2), 3-month follow-up (T3), and 6-month follow-up (T4). Compared to the control group, a significant decrease in the severity of IGD in intervention group was found at post-intervention and lasting to 6 months after intervention. The value changes of craving could partially mediate the relationship between intervention and changes of IGD among all effects tests (immediate, T2-T1; short-term, T3-T1; and long-term effects, T4-T1). Further, explorations of the active ingredients of intervention found depression relief and shift of psychological needs from Internet to real life significantly predict craving amelioration at both post-intervention and 6-month follow-up. Although preliminary, the current study provides evidence for the value of craving-aimed intervention practice in IGD treatment and identifies two potential active ingredients for mitigation of craving, and the long-term therapeutic benefits are further conferred. Registry name: The behavioral and brain mechanism of IGD; URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02550405; Registration number: NCT02550405.

Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects on nonmetallic materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

Changes in functional properties of a broad spectrum of nonmetallic materials as a function of environment and exposure time were evaluated. Models for predicting long-term material performance are discussed. A literature search on specific materials in the space and simulated space environment was carried out and evaluated.

Enhanced Predictability Through Lagrangian Observations and Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-30

Newark, DE 19716 phone: (302) 831-6836 fax: (302) 831-6521 email: brucel @udel.edu Award Number: N0014-05-1-0092 http://newark.cms.udel.edu... brucel /slmaps LONG-TERM GOALS The long-term goal of this project is develop the capability to predict the origin and fate of ocean water

A Kinetic Model for Calcium Dynamics in RAW 264.7 Cells: 2. Knockdown Response and Long-Term Response

PubMed Central

Maurya, Mano Ram; Subramaniam, Shankar

2007-01-01

This article addresses how quantitative models such as the one proposed in the companion article can be used to study cellular network perturbations such as knockdowns and pharmacological perturbations in a predictive manner. Using the kinetic model for cytosolic calcium dynamics in RAW 264.7 cells developed in the companion article, the calcium response to complement 5a (C5a) for the knockdown of seven proteins (C5a receptor; G-β-2; G-α,i-2,3; regulator of G-protein signaling-10; G-protein coupled receptor kinase-2; phospholipase C β-3; arrestin) is predicted and validated against the data from the Alliance for Cellular Signaling. The knockdown responses provide insights into how altered expressions of important proteins in disease states result in intermediate measurable phenotypes. Long-term response and long-term dose response have also been predicted, providing insights into how the receptor desensitization, internalization, and recycle result in tolerance. Sensitivity analysis of long-term response shows that the mechanisms and parameters in the receptor recycle path are important for long-term calcium dynamics. PMID:17483189

Long-Term Implications of Welfare Reform for the Development of Adolescents and Young Adults

PubMed Central

Chase-Lansdale, P. Lindsay; Cherlin, Andrew J.; Guttmannova, Katarina; Fomby, Paula; Ribar, David C.; Coley, Rebekah Levine

2011-01-01

We draw upon the 3-wave longitudinal dataset called Welfare Children and Families: A Three-City Study to examine the long-term implications for adolescents and young adults (N=783) of mothers’ welfare receipt and labor force participation from 1999 to 2005. In general, changes in mothers’ work and welfare patterns were not associated with deterioration or improvement in youth development (ages 16 to 20 years at wave 3). The few significant associations suggested that youth whose mothers increased employment (net of welfare participation) were more likely to show declines in serious behavior problems and delinquency compared to youth whose mothers were unemployed or employed part-time during the study period. Welfare roll exits (controlling for employment experiences) were unrelated to adolescent and young adult outcomes. Mothers’ employment transitions were linked to improvements in household income and mothers’ self esteem in addition to reductions in financial strain and their own illegal activities. However, these associations did not explain the relation between maternal employment and youths’ improved behavior. These results do not support the predictions of either the supporters or the opponents of welfare reform, an outcome we discuss. PMID:21966077

Earth Orientation Products - Naval Oceanography Portal

Science.gov Websites

Earth Orientation Products Daily Solutions Weekly Solutions Long-term Delta T GPS-based Products VLBI report for contributed series. Long-term Delta T Monthly determination of Delta T (TT - UT1) since 1973 and long-term predictions. Determinations of Delta T are updated approximately quarterly, and long

On the Determination of Magnesium Degradation Rates under Physiological Conditions.

PubMed

Nidadavolu, Eshwara Phani Shubhakar; Feyerabend, Frank; Ebel, Thomas; Willumeit-Römer, Regine; Dahms, Michael

2016-07-28

The current physiological in vitro tests of Mg degradation follow the procedure stated according to the ASTM standard. This standard, although useful in predicting the initial degradation behavior of an alloy, has its limitations in interpreting the same for longer periods of immersion in cell culture media. This is an important consequence as the alloy's degradation is time dependent. Even if two different alloys show similar corrosion rates in a short term experiment, their degradation characteristics might differ with increased immersion times. Furthermore, studies concerning Mg corrosion extrapolate the corrosion rate from a single time point measurement to the order of a year (mm/y), which might not be appropriate because of time dependent degradation behavior. In this work, the above issues are addressed and a new methodology of performing long-term immersion tests in determining the degradation rates of Mg alloys was put forth. For this purpose, cast and extruded Mg-2Ag and powder pressed and sintered Mg-0.3Ca alloy systems were chosen. DMEM Glutamax +10% FBS (Fetal Bovine Serum) +1% Penicillin streptomycin was used as cell culture medium. The advantages of such a method in predicting the degradation rates in vivo deduced from in vitro experiments are discussed.

Forecasting client transitions in British Columbia's Long-Term Care Program.

PubMed Central

Lane, D; Uyeno, D; Stark, A; Gutman, G; McCashin, B

1987-01-01

This article presents a model for the annual transitions of clients through various home and facility placements in a long-term care program. The model, an application of Markov chain analysis, is developed, tested, and applied to over 9,000 clients (N = 9,483) in British Columbia's Long Term Care Program (LTC) over the period 1978-1983. Results show that the model gives accurate forecasts of the progress of groups of clients from state to state in the long-term care system from time of admission until eventual death. Statistical methods are used to test the modeling hypothesis that clients' year-over-year transitions occur in constant proportions from state to state within the long-term care system. Tests are carried out by examining actual year-over-year transitions of each year's new admission cohort (1978-1983). Various subsets of the available data are analyzed and, after accounting for clear differences among annual cohorts, the most acceptable model of the actual client transition data occurred when clients were separated into male and female groups, i.e., the transition behavior of each group is describable by a different Markov model. To validate the model, we develop model estimates for the numbers of existing clients in each state of the long-term care system for the period (1981-1983) for which actual data are available. When these estimates are compared with the actual data, total weighted absolute deviations do not exceed 10 percent of actuals. Finally, we use the properties of the Markov chain probability transition matrix and simulation methods to develop three-year forecasts with prediction intervals for the distribution of the existing total clients into each state of the system. The tests, forecasts, and Markov model supplemental information are contained in a mechanized procedure suitable for a microcomputer. The procedure provides a powerful, efficient tool for decision makers planning facilities and services in response to the needs of long-term care clients. PMID:3121537

Long-time predictions in nonlinear dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szebehely, V.

1980-01-01

It is known that nonintegrable dynamical systems do not allow precise predictions concerning their behavior for arbitrary long times. The available series solutions are not uniformly convergent according to Poincare's theorem and numerical integrations lose their meaningfulness after the elapse of arbitrary long times. Two approaches are the use of existing global integrals and statistical methods. This paper presents a generalized method along the first approach. As examples long-time predictions in the classical gravitational satellite and planetary problems are treated.

Brief post-stressor treatment with pregabalin in an animal model for PTSD: short-term anxiolytic effects without long-term anxiogenic effect.

PubMed

Zohar, Joseph; Matar, Michael A; Ifergane, Gal; Kaplan, Zeev; Cohen, Hagit

2008-09-01

The short- and long-term behavioral effects of a brief course of pregabalin, an antiepileptic structural analogue of alpha-aminobyturic acid with analgesic and anxiolytic effects, were assessed in an animal model of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Two-hundred thirty-three adult male Sprague-Dawley rats were employed. Behavioral responses to traumatic stress exposure (predator urine scent) were assessed immediately after (1 h) and 30 days after treatment with saline or pregabalin (at doses of 30, 100 and 300 mg/kg) in terms of behavior in the elevated plus maze (EPM) and the acoustic startle response (ASR) paradigms. At day 31 the freezing response to a trauma cue (clean cat litter) was assessed. The same treatment regimen initiated at day 7 was assessed at day 30 and in response to the trauma cue on day 31 in a separate experiment. In the short term, doses of 100 mg/kg and 300 mg/kg of pregabalin effectively attenuated anxiety-like behaviors. In the longer-term, pregabalin did not attenuate the onset of PTSD-like behaviors or the prevalence rates of severe cue-responses, for either the immediate or the delayed treatment regimens. Pregabalin may present an alternative compound for acute anxiolytic treatment after exposure to trauma, but has no long-term protective/preventive effects.

3D Holographic Observatory for Long-term Monitoring of Complex Behaviors in Drosophila

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S. Santosh; Sun, Yaning; Zou, Sige; Hong, Jiarong

2016-09-01

Drosophila is an excellent model organism towards understanding the cognitive function, aging and neurodegeneration in humans. The effects of aging and other long-term dynamics on the behavior serve as important biomarkers in identifying such changes to the brain. In this regard, we are presenting a new imaging technique for lifetime monitoring of Drosophila in 3D at spatial and temporal resolutions capable of resolving the motion of limbs and wings using holographic principles. The developed system is capable of monitoring and extracting various behavioral parameters, such as ethograms and spatial distributions, from a group of flies simultaneously. This technique can image complicated leg and wing motions of flies at a resolution, which allows capturing specific landing responses from the same data set. Overall, this system provides a unique opportunity for high throughput screenings of behavioral changes in 3D over a long term in Drosophila.

Response to Intervention as a Predictor of Long-Term Reading Outcomes in Children with Dyslexia.

PubMed

van der Kleij, Sanne W; Segers, Eliane; Groen, Margriet A; Verhoeven, Ludo

2017-08-01

The goal of this study was to investigate how growth during a phonics-based intervention, as well as reading levels at baseline testing, predicted long-term reading outcomes of children with dyslexia. Eighty Dutch children with dyslexia who had completed a 50-week phonics-based intervention in grade 4 were tested in grade 5 on both word and pseudoword (following regular Dutch orthographic patterns) reading efficiency and compared to 93 typical readers. In grade 5 the children with dyslexia were still significantly slower in word and pseudoword reading than their typically developing peers. Results showed that long-term pseudoword reading in the group with dyslexia was predicted by pseudoword reading at pretest and growth in pseudoword reading during the intervention, which was itself predicted by pseudoword reading at pretest. This was not the case for word reading. We found that long-term word reading was directly predicted from pretest word reading, and indirectly via pretest pseudoword reading, via growth in pseudoword and word reading. It can be concluded that pseudoword reading is not only a good indicator of severity of reading difficulties in children with dyslexia, it is also an indicator of who will profit from intervention in the long-term. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change by the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qijie

2015-08-01

The accuracy of medium- and long-term prediction of length of day (LOD) change base on combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) deteriorates gradually. Leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model can significantly reduce the edge effect of the observation sequence. Especially, LSAR model greatly improves the resolution of signals’ low-frequency components. Therefore, it can improve the efficiency of prediction. In this work, LSAR is used to forecast the LOD change. The LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS is modeled by both the LSAR and AR models. The results of the two models are analyzed and compared. When the prediction length is between 10-30 days, the accuracy improvement is less than 10%. When the prediction length amounts to above 30 day, the accuracy improved obviously, with the maximum being around 19%. The results show that the LSAR model has higher prediction accuracy and stability in medium- and long-term prediction.

Comment on “Symplectic integration of magnetic systems”: A proof that the Boris algorithm is not variational

DOE PAGES

Ellison, C. L.; Burby, J. W.; Qin, H.

2015-11-01

One popular technique for the numerical time advance of charged particles interacting with electric and magnetic fields according to the Lorentz force law [1], [2], [3] and [4] is the Boris algorithm. Its popularity stems from simple implementation, rapid iteration, and excellent long-term numerical fidelity [1] and [5]. Excellent long-term behavior strongly suggests the numerical dynamics exhibit conservation laws analogous to those governing the continuous Lorentz force system [6]. Moreover, without conserved quantities to constrain the numerical dynamics, algorithms typically dissipate or accumulate important observables such as energy and momentum over long periods of simulated time [6]. Identification of themore » conservative properties of an algorithm is important for establishing rigorous expectations on the long-term behavior; energy-preserving, symplectic, and volume-preserving methods each have particular implications for the qualitative numerical behavior [6], [7], [8], [9], [10] and [11].« less

An Extended View of Mars Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fast, Kelly

2011-01-01

We present an ongoing effort to characterize chemistry in Mars' atmosphere in multiple seasons on timescales longer than flight missions through coordinated efforts by GSFC's HIPWAC spectrometer and Mars Express SPICAM, archival measurements, and tests/application of photochemical models. The trace species ozone (O3) is an effective probe of atmospheric chemistry because it is destroyed by chemically active odd hydrogen species (HO(sub x)) that result from water vapor photolysis. Observed ozone abundance on Mars is a critical test for three-dimensional photochemistry coupled general circulation models (GCM) that make specific predictions for the spatial, diurnal, and seasonal behavior of ozone and related chemistry and climatological conditions. Coordinated measurements by HIPWAC and SPICAM quantitatively linked mission data to the 23-year GSFC ozone data record and also revealed unanticipated inter-decadal variability of same-season ozone abundances, a possible indicator of changing cloud activity (heterogeneous sink for HO(sub x)). A detailed study of long-term conditions is critical to characterizing the predictability of Mars' seasonal chemical behavior, particularly in light of the implications of and the lack of explanation for reported methane behavior.

SPR Hydrostatic Column Model Verification and Validation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bettin, Giorgia; Lord, David; Rudeen, David Keith

2015-10-01

A Hydrostatic Column Model (HCM) was developed to help differentiate between normal "tight" well behavior and small-leak behavior under nitrogen for testing the pressure integrity of crude oil storage wells at the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This effort was motivated by steady, yet distinct, pressure behavior of a series of Big Hill caverns that have been placed under nitrogen for extended period of time. This report describes the HCM model, its functional requirements, the model structure and the verification and validation process. Different modes of operation are also described, which illustrate how the software can be used to model extendedmore » nitrogen monitoring and Mechanical Integrity Tests by predicting wellhead pressures along with nitrogen interface movements. Model verification has shown that the program runs correctly and it is implemented as intended. The cavern BH101 long term nitrogen test was used to validate the model which showed very good agreement with measured data. This supports the claim that the model is, in fact, capturing the relevant physical phenomena and can be used to make accurate predictions of both wellhead pressure and interface movements.« less

Accelerated characterization of graphite/epoxy composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griffith, W. I.; Morris, D. H.; Brinson, H. F.

1980-01-01

A method to predict the long term compliance of unidirectional off-axis laminates from short term laboratory tests is presented. The method uses an orthotropic transformation equation and the time-stress-temperature superposition principle. Short term tests are used to construct master curves for two off-axis unidirectional laminates with fiber angles of 10 and 90 degrees. Analytical predictions of long term compliance for 30 and 60 degrees laminates are made. Comparisons with experimental data are also given.

Brain and cognitive-behavioural development after asphyxia at term birth.

PubMed

de Haan, Michelle; Wyatt, John S; Roth, Simon; Vargha-Khadem, Faraneh; Gadian, David; Mishkin, Mortimer

2006-07-01

Perinatal asphyxia occurs in approximately 1-6 per 1000 live full-term births. Different patterns of brain damage can result, though the relation of these patterns to long-term cognitive-behavioural outcome remains under investigation. The hippocampus is one brain region that can be damaged (typically not in isolation), and this site of damage has been implicated in two different long-term outcomes, cognitive memory impairment and the psychiatric disorder schizophrenia. Factors in addition to the acute episode of asphyxia likely contribute to these specific outcomes, making prediction difficult. Future studies that better document long-term cognitive-behavioural outcome, quantitatively identify patterns of brain injury over development and consider additional variables that may modulate the impact of asphyxia on cognitive and behavioural function will forward the goals of predicting long-term outcome and understanding the mechanisms by which it unfolds.

Cognitive function, behavioral problems, and physical function in long-term care insurance beneficiaries with dementia in South Korea: comparison of home care and institutional care services.

PubMed

Lee, Tae Wha; Yim, Eunsil; Cho, Eunhee; Chung, Jane

2014-08-01

To examine, in beneficiaries with long-term care (LTC) insurance (LTCI) with dementia in Korea, changes in cognitive function, behavioral symptoms, and physical function over time in relation to LTCI service type and to determine the 2-year effects of service type on those health outcomes. Secondary analyses of the existing LTCI data set from 2008 to 2010. South Korea. LTCI beneficiaries with dementia aged 65 and older (N=31,319). Participants were divided according to the service type that they were receiving home care (HC), institutional care (IC), and combined care (CC). A LTC approval checklist was used to determine the level of LTCI coverage of each participant and to assess cognitive function, behavioral symptoms, and physical function. Linear mixed models and multiple regression models were used. There were significant differences in cognitive function, behavioral symptoms, and physical function at baseline between individuals receiving the three service types (P<.001) and overall improvements in those outcomes over 2 years in the three groups (P<.001). After limiting the sample to those who had received LTCI services for the full 2 years (2008-2010) and adjusting for baseline characteristics, individuals receiving HC were more likely to have better cognitive and physical function than those receiving IC or CC but were likely to have more behavioral symptoms 2 years after the LTCI enrollment (P<.001). LTCI service type (HC, IC, CC) predicted cognitive function, behavioral symptoms, and physical function at 2-year follow-up in beneficiaries with dementia. Further research is necessary to examine the effect of LTC services on health outcomes in a longer observational cohort. © 2014, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2014, The American Geriatrics Society.

Mediation of self-regulation and mood in the relationship of changes in high emotional eating and nutritional behaviors: Moderating effects of physical activity.

PubMed

Annesi, James J; Mareno, Nicole; McEwen, Kristin L

2016-12-01

High emotional eating (EE) is prevalent in women with obesity. A previous study's subsample of obese women classified as high emotional eaters participated in either a physical activity-focused experimental (n = 29) or an educationally focused comparison (n = 22) behavioral treatment and was assessed over phases of expected weight loss (baseline-month 6) and short- and long-term regain (months 6-12 and 6-24, respectively). The study's aim was to assess theory-based psychological and behavioral mediation and moderation of changes in nutritional behaviors via emotional eating change in order to inform behavioral weight-loss treatments. During the weight-loss phase, significant improvements in eating self-regulation and mood significantly mediated the relationship of reduced EE and intake of both fruits and vegetables (FV) and sweets. Self-regulation was a significant independent mediator. Physical activity significantly moderated the relationship between EE and self-regulation changes. All variables demonstrated large positive effects and significant time × group interactions favoring the experimental group. During the short and long-term phases of expected weight regain, there were no significant changes in FV intake, although consumption of sweets significantly increased during months 6-24. Change in FV and sweets significantly predicted weight change, which was significantly greater in the experimental vs. comparison group over both the initial 6 months (-6.1% vs. -2.6%) and full 24 months of the study (-7.6% vs. -1.3%). Findings suggest that behavioral treatments should address EE through improvements in self-regulation and mood, and supported physical activity will aid in that process. The need for an improved understanding of weight-loss maintenance remains. © 2016 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Perinatal androgens and adult behavior vary with nestling social system in siblicidal boobies.

PubMed

Müller, Martina S; Brennecke, Julius F; Porter, Elaine T; Ottinger, Mary Ann; Anderson, David J

2008-06-18

Exposure to androgens early in development, while activating adaptive aggressive behavior, may also exert long-lasting effects on non-target components of phenotype. Here we compare these organizational effects of perinatal androgens in closely related Nazca (Sula granti) and blue-footed (S. nebouxii) boobies that differ in neonatal social system. The older of two Nazca booby hatchlings unconditionally attacks and ejects the younger from the nest within days of hatching, while blue-footed booby neonates lack lethal aggression. Both Nazca booby chicks facultatively upregulate testosterone (T) during fights, motivating the prediction that baseline androgen levels differ between obligately siblicidal and other species. We show that obligately siblicidal Nazca boobies hatch with higher circulating androgen levels than do facultatively siblicidal blue-footed boobies, providing comparative evidence of the role of androgens in sociality. Although androgens confer a short-term benefit of increased aggression to Nazca booby neonates, exposure to elevated androgen levels during this sensitive period in development can also induce long-term organizational effects on behavior or morphology. Adult Nazca boobies show evidence of organizational effects of early androgen exposure in aberrant adult behavior: they visit unattended non-familial chicks in the colony and direct mixtures of aggression, affiliative, and sexual behavior toward them. In a longitudinal analysis, we found that the most active Non-parental Adult Visitors (NAVs) were those with a history of siblicidal behavior as a neonate, suggesting that the tendency to show social interest in chicks is programmed, in part, by the high perinatal androgens associated with obligate siblicide. Data from closely related blue-footed boobies provide comparative support for this interpretation. Lacking obligate siblicide, they hatch with a corresponding low androgen level, and blue-footed booby adults show a much lower frequency of NAV behavior and a lower probability of behaving aggressively during NAV interactions. This species difference in adult social behavior appears to have roots in both pleiotropic and experiential effects of nestling social system. Our results indicate that Nazca boobies experience life-long consequences of androgenic preparation for an early battle to the death.

Unsaturated consolidation theory for the prediction of long-term municipal solid waste landfill settlement.

PubMed

Liu, Chia-Nan; Chen, Rong-Her; Chen, Kuo-Sheng

2006-02-01

The understanding of long-term landfill settlement is important for landfill design and rehabilitation. However, suitable models that can consider both the mechanical and biodecomposition mechanisms in predicting the long-term landfill settlement are generally not available. In this paper, a model based on unsaturated consolidation theory and considering the biodegradation process is introduced to simulate the landfill settlement behaviour. The details of problem formulations and the derivation of the solution for the formulated differential equation of gas pressure are presented. A step-by-step analytical procedure employing this approach for estimating settlement is proposed. The proposed model can generally model the typical features of short-term and long-term behaviour. The proposed model also yields results that are comparable with the field measurements.

Temperament in infancy and behavioral and emotional problems at age 5.5: The EDEN mother-child cohort.

PubMed

Abulizi, Xian; Pryor, Laura; Michel, Grégory; Melchior, Maria; van der Waerden, Judith

2017-01-01

Early temperamental characteristics may influence children's developmental pathways and predict future psychopathology. However, the environmental context may also shape or interact with infant temperament and indirectly contribute to increased vulnerability to adverse developmental outcomes. The aim of the present study is to explore the long-term contribution of temperamental traits at twelve months of age to the presence of emotional and behavioral problems later in childhood, and whether this association varies with the child's sex, parental separation, family socioeconomic status and maternal depression. 1184 mother-child pairs from the EDEN mother-child birth cohort study based in France (2003-2011), were followed from 24-28 weeks of pregnancy to the child's fifth birthday. Infant temperament at 12 months was assessed with the Emotionality Activity and Sociability (EAS) questionnaire and behavior at 5.5 years was assessed with the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Emotional temperament in infancy predicts children's overall behavioral scores (β = 1.16, p<0.001), emotional difficulties (β = 0.30, p<0.001), conduct problems (β = 0.51, p<0.001) and symptoms of hyperactivity/inattention (β = 0.31, p = 0.01) at 5.5 years. Infants' active temperament predicts later conduct problems (β = 0.30, p = 0.02), while shyness predicts later emotional problems (β = 0.22, p = 0.04). The association between the child's temperament in infancy and later behavior did not vary with children's own or family characteristics. An emotional temperament in infancy is associated with higher levels of emotional and behavioral difficulties at the age of 5.5 years. Children who show high emotionality early on may require early prevention and intervention efforts to divert possible adverse developmental pathways.

Temperament in infancy and behavioral and emotional problems at age 5.5: The EDEN mother-child cohort

PubMed Central

Abulizi, Xian; Pryor, Laura; Michel, Grégory; Melchior, Maria

2017-01-01

Objective Early temperamental characteristics may influence children’s developmental pathways and predict future psychopathology. However, the environmental context may also shape or interact with infant temperament and indirectly contribute to increased vulnerability to adverse developmental outcomes. The aim of the present study is to explore the long-term contribution of temperamental traits at twelve months of age to the presence of emotional and behavioral problems later in childhood, and whether this association varies with the child’s sex, parental separation, family socioeconomic status and maternal depression. Method 1184 mother-child pairs from the EDEN mother-child birth cohort study based in France (2003–2011), were followed from 24–28 weeks of pregnancy to the child’s fifth birthday. Infant temperament at 12 months was assessed with the Emotionality Activity and Sociability (EAS) questionnaire and behavior at 5.5 years was assessed with the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Results Emotional temperament in infancy predicts children’s overall behavioral scores (β = 1.16, p<0.001), emotional difficulties (β = 0.30, p<0.001), conduct problems (β = 0.51, p<0.001) and symptoms of hyperactivity/inattention (β = 0.31, p = 0.01) at 5.5 years. Infants’ active temperament predicts later conduct problems (β = 0.30, p = 0.02), while shyness predicts later emotional problems (β = 0.22, p = 0.04). The association between the child’s temperament in infancy and later behavior did not vary with children’s own or family characteristics. Conclusion An emotional temperament in infancy is associated with higher levels of emotional and behavioral difficulties at the age of 5.5 years. Children who show high emotionality early on may require early prevention and intervention efforts to divert possible adverse developmental pathways. PMID:28199415

Predictive Models of Cognitive Outcomes of Developmental Insults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Yupo; Bouaynaya, Nidhal; Chowdhury, Parimal; Leszczynska, Danuta; Patterson, Tucker A.; Tarasenko, Olga

2010-04-01

Representatives of Arkansas medical, research and educational institutions have gathered over the past four years to discuss the relationship between functional developmental perturbations and their neurological consequences. We wish to track the effect on the nervous system by developmental perturbations over time and across species. Except for perturbations, the sequence of events that occur during neural development was found to be remarkably conserved across mammalian species. The tracking includes consequences on anatomical regions and behavioral changes. The ultimate goal is to develop a predictive model of long-term genotypic and phenotypic outcomes that includes developmental insults. Such a model can subsequently be fostered into an educated intervention for therapeutic purposes. Several datasets were identified to test plausible hypotheses, ranging from evoked potential datasets to sleep-disorder datasets. An initial model may be mathematical and conceptual. However, we expect to see rapid progress as large-scale gene expression studies in the mammalian brain permit genome-wide searches to discover genes that are uniquely expressed in brain circuits and regions. These genes ultimately control behavior. By using a validated model we endeavor to make useful predictions.

Using LSTMs to learn physiological models of blood glucose behavior.

PubMed

Mirshekarian, Sadegh; Bunescu, Razvan; Marling, Cindy; Schwartz, Frank

2017-07-01

For people with type 1 diabetes, good blood glucose control is essential to keeping serious disease complications at bay. This entails carefully monitoring blood glucose levels and taking corrective steps whenever they are too high or too low. If blood glucose levels could be accurately predicted, patients could take proactive steps to prevent blood glucose excursions from occurring. However, accurate predictions require complex physiological models of blood glucose behavior. Factors such as insulin boluses, carbohydrate intake, and exercise influence blood glucose in ways that are difficult to capture through manually engineered equations. In this paper, we describe a recursive neural network (RNN) approach that uses long short-term memory (LSTM) units to learn a physiological model of blood glucose. When trained on raw data from real patients, the LSTM networks (LSTMs) obtain results that are competitive with a previous state-of-the-art model based on manually engineered physiological equations. The RNN approach can incorporate arbitrary physiological parameters without the need for sophisticated manual engineering, thus holding the promise of further improvements in prediction accuracy.

Coupling detrended fluctuation analysis for multiple warehouse-out behavioral sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Can-Zhong; Lin, Ji-Nan; Zheng, Xu-Zhou

2017-01-01

Interaction patterns among different warehouses could make the warehouse-out behavioral sequences less predictable. We firstly take a coupling detrended fluctuation analysis on the warehouse-out quantity, and find that the multivariate sequences exhibit significant coupling multifractal characteristics regardless of the types of steel products. Secondly, we track the sources of multifractal warehouse-out sequences by shuffling and surrogating original ones, and we find that fat-tail distribution contributes more to multifractal features than the long-term memory, regardless of types of steel products. From perspective of warehouse contribution, some warehouses steadily contribute more to multifractal than other warehouses. Finally, based on multiscale multifractal analysis, we propose Hurst surface structure to investigate coupling multifractal, and show that multiple behavioral sequences exhibit significant coupling multifractal features that emerge and usually be restricted within relatively greater time scale interval.

Analysis Methods for Post Occupancy Evaluation of Energy-Use in High Performance Buildings Using Short-Term Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Vipul

2011-12-01

The green building movement has been an effective catalyst in reducing energy demands of buildings and a large number of 'green' certified buildings have been in operation for several years. Whether these buildings are actually performing as intended, and if not, identifying specific causes for this discrepancy falls into the general realm of post-occupancy evaluation (POE). POE involves evaluating building performance in terms of energy-use, indoor environmental quality, acoustics and water-use; the first aspect i.e. energy-use is addressed in this thesis. Normally, a full year or more of energy-use and weather data is required to determine the actual post-occupancy energy-use of buildings. In many cases, either measured building performance data is not available or the time and cost implications may not make it feasible to invest in monitoring the building for a whole year. Knowledge about the minimum amount of measured data needed to accurately capture the behavior of the building over the entire year can be immensely beneficial. This research identifies simple modeling techniques to determine best time of the year to begin in-situ monitoring of building energy-use, and the least amount of data required for generating acceptable long-term predictions. Four analysis procedures are studied. The short-term monitoring for long-term prediction (SMLP) approach and dry-bulb temperature analysis (DBTA) approach allow determining the best time and duration of the year for in-situ monitoring to be performed based only on the ambient temperature data of the location. Multivariate change-point (MCP) modeling uses simulated/monitored data to determine best monitoring period of the year. This is also used to validate the SMLP and DBTA approaches. The hybrid inverse modeling method-1 predicts energy-use by combining a short dataset of monitored internal loads with a year of utility-bills, and hybrid inverse method-2 predicts long term building performance using utility-bills only. The results obtained show that often less than three to four months of monitored data is adequate for estimating the annual building energy use, provided that the monitoring is initiated at the right time, and the seasonal as well as daily variations are adequately captured by the short dataset. The predictive accuracy of the short data-sets is found to be strongly influenced by the closeness of the dataset's mean temperature to the annual average temperature. The analysis methods studied would be very useful for energy professionals involved in POE.

Long-term exposure to noise impairs cortical sound processing and attention control.

PubMed

Kujala, Teija; Shtyrov, Yury; Winkler, Istvan; Saher, Marieke; Tervaniemi, Mari; Sallinen, Mikael; Teder-Sälejärvi, Wolfgang; Alho, Kimmo; Reinikainen, Kalevi; Näätänen, Risto

2004-11-01

Long-term exposure to noise impairs human health, causing pathological changes in the inner ear as well as other anatomical and physiological deficits. Numerous individuals are daily exposed to excessive noise. However, there is a lack of systematic research on the effects of noise on cortical function. Here we report data showing that long-term exposure to noise has a persistent effect on central auditory processing and leads to concurrent behavioral deficits. We found that speech-sound discrimination was impaired in noise-exposed individuals, as indicated by behavioral responses and the mismatch negativity brain response. Furthermore, irrelevant sounds increased the distractibility of the noise-exposed subjects, which was shown by increased interference in task performance and aberrant brain responses. These results demonstrate that long-term exposure to noise has long-lasting detrimental effects on central auditory processing and attention control.

Rating curve estimation of nutrient loads in Iowa rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stenback, G.A.; Crumpton, W.G.; Schilling, K.E.; Helmers, M.J.

2011-01-01

Accurate estimation of nutrient loads in rivers and streams is critical for many applications including determination of sources of nutrient loads in watersheds, evaluating long-term trends in loads, and estimating loading to downstream waterbodies. Since in many cases nutrient concentrations are measured on a weekly or monthly frequency, there is a need to estimate concentration and loads during periods when no data is available. The objectives of this study were to: (i) document the performance of a multiple regression model to predict loads of nitrate and total phosphorus (TP) in Iowa rivers and streams; (ii) determine whether there is any systematic bias in the load prediction estimates for nitrate and TP; and (iii) evaluate streamflow and concentration factors that could affect the load prediction efficiency. A commonly cited rating curve regression is utilized to estimate riverine nitrate and TP loads for rivers in Iowa with watershed areas ranging from 17.4 to over 34,600km2. Forty-nine nitrate and 44 TP datasets each comprising 5-22years of approximately weekly to monthly concentrations were examined. Three nitrate data sets had sample collection frequencies averaging about three samples per week. The accuracy and precision of annual and long term riverine load prediction was assessed by direct comparison of rating curve load predictions with observed daily loads. Significant positive bias of annual and long term nitrate loads was detected. Long term rating curve nitrate load predictions exceeded observed loads by 25% or more at 33% of the 49 measurement sites. No bias was found for TP load prediction although 15% of the 44 cases either underestimated or overestimate observed long-term loads by more than 25%. The rating curve was found to poorly characterize nitrate and phosphorus variation in some rivers. ?? 2010 .

Validation of the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) pulmonary hypertension prediction model in a unique population and utility in the prediction of long-term survival.

PubMed

Cogswell, Rebecca; Kobashigawa, Erin; McGlothlin, Dana; Shaw, Robin; De Marco, Teresa

2012-11-01

The Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial (PAH) Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) model was designed to predict 1-year survival in patients with PAH. Multivariate prediction models need to be evaluated in cohorts distinct from the derivation set to determine external validity. In addition, limited data exist on the utility of this model in the prediction of long-term survival. REVEAL model performance was assessed to predict 1-year and 5-year outcomes, defined as survival or composite survival or freedom from lung transplant, in 140 patients with PAH. The validation cohort had a higher proportion of human immunodeficiency virus (7.9% vs 1.9%, p < 0.0001), methamphetamine use (19.3% vs 4.9%, p < 0.0001), and portal hypertension PAH (16.4% vs 5.1%, p < 0.0001) compared with the development cohort. The C-index of the model to predict survival was 0.765 at 1 year and 0.712 at 5 years of follow-up. The C-index of the model to predict composite survival or freedom from lung transplant was 0.805 and 0.724 at 1 and 5 years of follow-up, respectively. Prediction by the model, however, was weakest among patients with intermediate-risk predicted survival. The REVEAL model had adequate discrimination to predict 1-year survival in this small but clinically distinct validation cohort. Although the model also had predictive ability out to 5 years, prediction was limited among patients of intermediate risk, suggesting our prediction methods can still be improved. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Reasoning, learning, and creativity: frontal lobe function and human decision-making.

PubMed

Collins, Anne; Koechlin, Etienne

2012-01-01

The frontal lobes subserve decision-making and executive control--that is, the selection and coordination of goal-directed behaviors. Current models of frontal executive function, however, do not explain human decision-making in everyday environments featuring uncertain, changing, and especially open-ended situations. Here, we propose a computational model of human executive function that clarifies this issue. Using behavioral experiments, we show that unlike others, the proposed model predicts human decisions and their variations across individuals in naturalistic situations. The model reveals that for driving action, the human frontal function monitors up to three/four concurrent behavioral strategies and infers online their ability to predict action outcomes: whenever one appears more reliable than unreliable, this strategy is chosen to guide the selection and learning of actions that maximize rewards. Otherwise, a new behavioral strategy is tentatively formed, partly from those stored in long-term memory, then probed, and if competitive confirmed to subsequently drive action. Thus, the human executive function has a monitoring capacity limited to three or four behavioral strategies. This limitation is compensated by the binary structure of executive control that in ambiguous and unknown situations promotes the exploration and creation of new behavioral strategies. The results support a model of human frontal function that integrates reasoning, learning, and creative abilities in the service of decision-making and adaptive behavior.

Reasoning, Learning, and Creativity: Frontal Lobe Function and Human Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Collins, Anne; Koechlin, Etienne

2012-01-01

The frontal lobes subserve decision-making and executive control—that is, the selection and coordination of goal-directed behaviors. Current models of frontal executive function, however, do not explain human decision-making in everyday environments featuring uncertain, changing, and especially open-ended situations. Here, we propose a computational model of human executive function that clarifies this issue. Using behavioral experiments, we show that unlike others, the proposed model predicts human decisions and their variations across individuals in naturalistic situations. The model reveals that for driving action, the human frontal function monitors up to three/four concurrent behavioral strategies and infers online their ability to predict action outcomes: whenever one appears more reliable than unreliable, this strategy is chosen to guide the selection and learning of actions that maximize rewards. Otherwise, a new behavioral strategy is tentatively formed, partly from those stored in long-term memory, then probed, and if competitive confirmed to subsequently drive action. Thus, the human executive function has a monitoring capacity limited to three or four behavioral strategies. This limitation is compensated by the binary structure of executive control that in ambiguous and unknown situations promotes the exploration and creation of new behavioral strategies. The results support a model of human frontal function that integrates reasoning, learning, and creative abilities in the service of decision-making and adaptive behavior. PMID:22479152

Derivation and Evaluation of a Risk-Scoring Tool to Predict Participant Attrition in a Lifestyle Intervention Project.

PubMed

Jiang, Luohua; Yang, Jing; Huang, Haixiao; Johnson, Ann; Dill, Edward J; Beals, Janette; Manson, Spero M; Roubideaux, Yvette

2016-05-01

Participant attrition in clinical trials and community-based interventions is a serious, common, and costly problem. In order to develop a simple predictive scoring system that can quantify the risk of participant attrition in a lifestyle intervention project, we analyzed data from the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Diabetes Prevention Program (SDPI-DP), an evidence-based lifestyle intervention to prevent diabetes in 36 American Indian and Alaska Native communities. SDPI-DP participants were randomly divided into a derivation cohort (n = 1600) and a validation cohort (n = 801). Logistic regressions were used to develop a scoring system from the derivation cohort. The discriminatory power and calibration properties of the system were assessed using the validation cohort. Seven independent factors predicted program attrition: gender, age, household income, comorbidity, chronic pain, site's user population size, and average age of site staff. Six factors predicted long-term attrition: gender, age, marital status, chronic pain, site's user population size, and average age of site staff. Each model exhibited moderate to fair discriminatory power (C statistic in the validation set: 0.70 for program attrition, and 0.66 for long-term attrition) and excellent calibration. The resulting scoring system offers a low-technology approach to identify participants at elevated risk for attrition in future similar behavioral modification intervention projects, which may inform appropriate allocation of retention resources. This approach also serves as a model for other efforts to prevent participant attrition.

Forward Inferences: From Activation to Long-Term Memory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klin, Celia M.; Murray, John D.; Levine, William H.; Guzman, Alexandria E.

1999-01-01

Investigates the extent to which forward inferences are activated and encoded during reading, as well as their prevalence and their time course. Finds that inferences were encoded and retained in working memory in both high- and low-predictability conditions, and that high-predictability forward inferences were encoded into long-term memory.…

Predicting Long-Term Growth in Students' Mathematics Achievement: The Unique Contributions of Motivation and Cognitive Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; vom Hofe, Rudolf

2013-01-01

This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10;…

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data

Treesearch

Brooke L. Bateman; Anna M. Pidgeon; Volker C. Radeloff; Curtis H. Flather; Jeremy VanDerWal; H. Resit Akcakaya; Wayne E. Thogmartin; Thomas P. Albright; Stephen J. Vavrus; Patricia J. Heglund

2016-01-01

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in...

The Role of Violent Media Preference in Cumulative Developmental Risk for Violence and General Aggression

PubMed Central

Huesmann, L. Rowell; Bushman, Brad J.; O'Brien, Maureen; Moceri, Dominic

2015-01-01

The impact of exposure to violence in the media on the long-term development and short-term expression of aggressive behavior has been well documented. However, gaps in this literature remain, and in particular the role of violent media exposure in shaping violent and other serious antisocial behavior has not been investigated. Further, studies of violent media effects typically have not sampled from populations with confirmed histories of violent and/or nonviolent antisocial behavior. In this study, we analyzed data on 820 youth, including 390 juvenile delinquents and 430 high school students, to examine the relation of violent media use to involvement in violence and general aggression. Using criterion scores developed through cross-informant modeling of data from self, parent/guardian, and teacher/staff reports, we observed that childhood and adolescent violent media preferences contributed significantly to the prediction of violence and general aggression from cumulative risk totals. Findings represent a new and important direction for research on the role of violent media use in the broader matrix of risk factors for youth violence. PMID:19636754

The role of violent media preference in cumulative developmental risk for violence and general aggression.

PubMed

Boxer, Paul; Huesmann, L Rowell; Bushman, Brad J; O'Brien, Maureen; Moceri, Dominic

2009-03-01

The impact of exposure to violence in the media on the long-term development and short-term expression of aggressive behavior has been well documented. However, gaps in this literature remain, and in particular the role of violent media exposure in shaping violent and other serious antisocial behavior has not been investigated. Further, studies of violent media effects typically have not sampled from populations with confirmed histories of violent and/or nonviolent antisocial behavior. In this study, we analyzed data on 820 youth, including 390 juvenile delinquents and 430 high school students, to examine the relation of violent media use to involvement in violence and general aggression. Using criterion scores developed through cross-informant modeling of data from self, parent/guardian, and teacher/staff reports, we observed that childhood and adolescent violent media preferences contributed significantly to the prediction of violence and general aggression from cumulative risk totals. Findings represent a new and important direction for research on the role of violent media use in the broader matrix of risk factors for youth violence.

Long-Term Refugee Health: Health Behaviors and Outcomes of Cambodian Refugee and Immigrant Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson-Peterman, Jerusha L.; Toof, Robin; Liang, Sidney L.; Grigg-Saito, Dorcas C.

2015-01-01

Refugees in the United States have high rates of chronic disease. Both long-term effects of the refugee experience and adjustment to the U.S. health environment may contribute. While there is significant research on health outcomes of newly resettled refugees and long-term mental health experiences of established refugees, there is currently…

Long-term bed degradation in Maryland streams (phase 2) : Blue Ridge and Western Piedmont provinces.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-03-01

Estimation of potential long-term down-cutting of the stream bed is necessary for evaluation and design of bridges for scour and culverts for fish passage. The purpose of this study has been to improve predictions of this potential long-term bed degr...

Characterization, Long-Term Behavior Evaluation and Thermomechanical Properties of Untreated and Treated Flax Fiber-Reinforced Composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amiri, Ali

In recent years there has been a resurgence of interest in the usage of natural fiber reinforced composites in more advanced structural applications. Consequently, the need for improving their mechanical properties as well as service life and long-term behavior modeling and predictions has arisen. In a step towards further development of these materials, in this study, two newly developed biobased resins, derived from soybean oil, methacrylated epoxidized sucrose soyate and double methacrylated epoxidized sucrose soyate are combined with untreated and alkaline treated flax fiber to produce novel biocomposites. Vinyl ester reinforced with flax fiber is used as control in addition to comparing properties of biobased composites against commercial pultruded composites. Effects of alkaline treatment of flax fiber as well as addition of 1% acrylic resin to vinyl ester and the two mentioned biobased resins on mechanical properties are studied. Properties are evaluated in short-term and also, after being exposed to accelerated weathering (i.e. UV and moisture). Moreover, long-term creep of these novel biobased composites and effect of fiber and matrix treatment on viscoelastic behavior is investigated using Time-temperature superposition (TTS) principle. Based on the results of this study, the TTS provides an accelerated method for evaluation of mechanical properties of biobased composites, and satisfactory master curves are achieved by use of this principle. Also, fiber and matrix treatments were effective in increasing mechanical properties of biobased composites in short-term, and treatments delayed the creep response and slowed the process of creep in composites under study in the steady state region. Overall, results of this study reveal the successful production of biocomposites having properties that meet or exceed those of conventional pultruded members while maintaining high biocontent. Composites using treated flax fiber and newly developed resins showed less degradation in properties after accelerated weather exposure. Procedures and methods developed throughout this study, as well as results presented are essential to further development of these novel materials and utilizing them in more advanced structural applications. Results presented in this dissertation have been published as 5 peer reviewed journal articles, 2 book chapters and have been presented in 6 national and international conferences.

Exploration of the short-term and long-term effects of parental illness on children's educational and behavioral functioning using a large Taiwanese sample.

PubMed

Chen, Yung-Chi

2014-05-01

This study used data from Waves I and II of the Taiwan Educational Panel Survey (TEPS) to explore the potential short-term and long-term effects of parental illness and health condition on children's behavioral and educational functioning. A sample of 11,018 junior high school students and their parents and teachers in Taiwan were included in this present study. The results supported previous work that parental illness may place children at slight risk for poor psychosocial adjustment and behavioral problems. Parental illness was associated with lower adaptive skills and more behavioral problems in children. Children of ill parents showed resilience in their educational functioning in the event of parental illness as children's academic achievement and learning skills were not related to parental illness/health condition.

Reconciling long-term cultural diversity and short-term collective social behavior.

PubMed

Valori, Luca; Picciolo, Francesco; Allansdottir, Agnes; Garlaschelli, Diego

2012-01-24

An outstanding open problem is whether collective social phenomena occurring over short timescales can systematically reduce cultural heterogeneity in the long run, and whether offline and online human interactions contribute differently to the process. Theoretical models suggest that short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity are mutually excluding, since they require very different levels of social influence. The latter jointly depends on two factors: the topology of the underlying social network and the overlap between individuals in multidimensional cultural space. However, while the empirical properties of social networks are intensively studied, little is known about the large-scale organization of real societies in cultural space, so that random input specifications are necessarily used in models. Here we use a large dataset to perform a high-dimensional analysis of the scientific beliefs of thousands of Europeans. We find that interopinion correlations determine a nontrivial ultrametric hierarchy of individuals in cultural space. When empirical data are used as inputs in models, ultrametricity has strong and counterintuitive effects. On short timescales, it facilitates a symmetry-breaking phase transition triggering coordinated social behavior. On long timescales, it suppresses cultural convergence by restricting it within disjoint groups. Moreover, ultrametricity implies that these results are surprisingly robust to modifications of the dynamical rules considered. Thus the empirical distribution of individuals in cultural space appears to systematically optimize the coexistence of short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity, which can be realized simultaneously for the same moderate level of mutual influence in a diverse range of online and offline settings.

Predicting the response of populations to environmental change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ives, A.R.

1995-04-01

When subject to long-term directional environmental perturbations, changes in population densities depend on the positive and negative feedbacks operating through interactions within and among species in a community. This paper develops techniques to predict the long-term responses of population densities to environmental changes using data on short-term population fluctuations driven by short-term environmental variability. In addition to giving quantitative predictions, the techniques also reveal how different qualitative patterns of species interactions either buffer or accentuate population responses to environmental trends. All of the predictions are based on regression coefficients extracted from time series data, and they can therefore be appliedmore » with a minimum of mathematical and statistical gymnastics. 48 refs., 10 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Temporal Prediction Errors Affect Short-Term Memory Scanning Response Time.

PubMed

Limongi, Roberto; Silva, Angélica M

2016-11-01

The Sternberg short-term memory scanning task has been used to unveil cognitive operations involved in time perception. Participants produce time intervals during the task, and the researcher explores how task performance affects interval production - where time estimation error is the dependent variable of interest. The perspective of predictive behavior regards time estimation error as a temporal prediction error (PE), an independent variable that controls cognition, behavior, and learning. Based on this perspective, we investigated whether temporal PEs affect short-term memory scanning. Participants performed temporal predictions while they maintained information in memory. Model inference revealed that PEs affected memory scanning response time independently of the memory-set size effect. We discuss the results within the context of formal and mechanistic models of short-term memory scanning and predictive coding, a Bayes-based theory of brain function. We state the hypothesis that our finding could be associated with weak frontostriatal connections and weak striatal activity.

Accelerated characterization of graphite/epoxy composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griffith, W. I.; Morris, D. H.; Brinson, H. F.

1980-01-01

A method to predict the long-term compliance of unidirectional off-axis laminates from short-term laboratory tests is presented. The method uses an orthotropic transformation equation and the time-stress-temperature superposition principle. Short-term tests are used to construct master curves for two off-axis unidirectional laminates with fiber angles of 10 deg and 90 deg. In addition, analytical predictions of long-term compliance for 30 deg and 60 deg laminates are made. Comparisons with experimental data are also given.

Oscillations, neural computations and learning during wake and sleep.

PubMed

Penagos, Hector; Varela, Carmen; Wilson, Matthew A

2017-06-01

Learning and memory theories consider sleep and the reactivation of waking hippocampal neural patterns to be crucial for the long-term consolidation of memories. Here we propose that precisely coordinated representations across brain regions allow the inference and evaluation of causal relationships to train an internal generative model of the world. This training starts during wakefulness and strongly benefits from sleep because its recurring nested oscillations may reflect compositional operations that facilitate a hierarchical processing of information, potentially including behavioral policy evaluations. This suggests that an important function of sleep activity is to provide conditions conducive to general inference, prediction and insight, which contribute to a more robust internal model that underlies generalization and adaptive behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cognitive Behavioral Treatment for Childhood Anxiety Disorders: Long-Term Effects on Anxiety and Secondary Disorders in Young Adulthood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saavedra, Lissette M.; Silverman, Wendy K.; Morgan-Lopez, Antonio A.; Kurtines, William M.

2010-01-01

Background: The present study's aim was to examine the long-term effects (8 to 13 years post-treatment; M = 9.83 years; SD = 1.71) of the most widely used treatment approaches of exposure-based cognitive behavioral treatment for phobic and anxiety disorders in children and adolescents (i.e., group treatment and two variants of individual…

Preventive Intervention for Preschoolers at High Risk for Antisocial Behavior: Long-Term Effects on Child Physical Aggression and Parenting Practices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brotman, Laurie Miller; Gouley, Kathleen Kiely; Huang, Keng-Yen; Rosenfelt, Amanda; O'Neal, Colleen; Klein, Rachel G.; Shrout, Patrick

2008-01-01

This article presents long-term effects of a preventive intervention for young children at high risk for antisocial behavior. Ninety-two children (M age = 4 years) were randomly assigned to an 8-month family intervention or no-intervention control condition and assessed 4 times over a 24-month period. Intent-to-treat analyses revealed significant…

Response to Nadler's Commentary on Arch and Craske's (2011) "Addressing Relapse in Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Panic Disorder: Methods for Optimizing Long-Term Treatment Outcomes"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arch, Joanna J.; Craske, Michelle G.

2012-01-01

Nadler (this issue), in his commentary of our article, "Addressing Relapse in Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Panic Disorder: Methods for Optimizing Long-Term Treatment Outcomes" (Arch & Craske, 2011), argues that we misrepresent the role of panic attacks within learning theory and overlook cognitive treatment targets. He presents several case…

Neural conflict-control mechanisms improve memory for target stimuli.

PubMed

Krebs, Ruth M; Boehler, Carsten N; De Belder, Maya; Egner, Tobias

2015-03-01

According to conflict-monitoring models, conflict serves as an internal signal for reinforcing top-down attention to task-relevant information. While evidence based on measures of ongoing task performance supports this idea, implications for long-term consequences, that is, memory, have not been tested yet. Here, we evaluated the prediction that conflict-triggered attentional enhancement of target-stimulus processing should be associated with superior subsequent memory for those stimuli. By combining functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) with a novel variant of a face-word Stroop task that employed trial-unique face stimuli as targets, we were able to assess subsequent (incidental) memory for target faces as a function of whether a given face had previously been accompanied by congruent, neutral, or incongruent (conflicting) distracters. In line with our predictions, incongruent distracters not only induced behavioral conflict, but also gave rise to enhanced memory for target faces. Moreover, conflict-triggered neural activity in prefrontal and parietal regions was predictive of subsequent retrieval success, and displayed conflict-enhanced functional coupling with medial-temporal lobe regions. These data provide support for the proposal that conflict evokes enhanced top-down attention to task-relevant stimuli, thereby promoting their encoding into long-term memory. Our findings thus delineate the neural mechanisms of a novel link between cognitive control and memory. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Long-term effects of child punishment on Mexican women: a structural model.

PubMed

Frias-Armenta, Martha

2002-04-01

The aim of this study was to investigate long-term effects of parental use of physical and verbal punishment on Mexican women. To study both direct and indirect effects of these phenomena, a structural model was developed and tested. One hundred and fifty Mexican women were interviewed with regard to their history of child abuse, their level of depression, alcohol use, antisocial behavior, and punishment of their own children. Factors representing such constructs were specified within a structural equation model and their inter-relations were estimated. Women's history of abuse was considered as an exogenous latent variable directly affecting three other factors: mothers' antisocial behavior, their alcohol consumption, and their levels of depression or anxiety. These factors, in turn, were specified as influencing mothers' harsh discipline of their own children. Data supported this model, indicating that a history of abuse has long-term effects on women's behavior and psychological functioning, which in turn cause women's punitive behavior against their children. These results are discussed in terms of the theoretical framework of intergenerational transmission of violence. The direct consequences (depression, anxiety, alcohol consumption, and antisocial behavior) of child punishment act as risk factors for the next generation of child abuse.

Mild Concussion, but Not Moderate Traumatic Brain Injury, Is Associated with Long-Term Depression-Like Phenotype in Mice

PubMed Central

Hamer, Mary; Semple, Bridgette D.; Noble-Haeusslein, Linda J.; Baghchechi, Mohsen; Hiroto, Alex; Hartman, Richard E.; Obenaus, André

2016-01-01

Mild traumatic brain injuries can lead to long-lasting cognitive and motor deficits, increasing the risk of future behavioral, neurological, and affective disorders. Our study focused on long-term behavioral deficits after repeated injury in which mice received either a single mild CHI (mCHI), a repeated mild CHI (rmCHI) consisting of one impact to each hemisphere separated by 3 days, or a moderate controlled cortical impact injury (CCI). Shams received only anesthesia. Behavioral tests were administered at 1, 3, 5, 7, and 90 days post-injury (dpi). CCI animals showed significant motor and sensory deficits in the early (1–7 dpi) and long-term (90 dpi) stages of testing. Interestingly, sensory and subtle motor deficits in rmCHI animals were found at 90 dpi. Most importantly, depression-like behaviors and social passiveness were observed in rmCHI animals at 90 dpi. These data suggest that mild concussive injuries lead to motor and sensory deficits and affective disorders that are not observed after moderate TBI. PMID:26796696

Assessing the Effectiveness of First Step to Success: Are Short-Term Results the First Step to Long-Term Behavioral Improvements?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sumi, W. Carl; Woodbridge, Michelle W.; Javitz, Harold S.; Thornton, S. Patrick; Wagner, Mary; Rouspil, Kristen; Yu, Jennifer W.; Seeley, John R.; Walker, Hill M.; Golly, Annemieke; Small, Jason W.; Feil, Edward G.; Severson, Herbert H.

2013-01-01

This article reports on the effectiveness of First Step to Success, a secondary-level intervention appropriate for students in early elementary school who experience moderate to severe behavior problems and are at risk for academic failure. The authors demonstrate the intervention's short-term effects on multiple behavioral and academic outcomes…

Enhancing the quality of supportive supervisory behavior in long-term care facilities.

PubMed

McGillis Hall, Linda; McGilton, Katherine S; Krejci, Janet; Pringle, Dorothy; Johnston, Erin; Fairley, Laura; Brown, Maryanne

2005-04-01

The practices of managers and registered nurses (RNs) in long-term care facilities are frequently ineffective in assisting the licensed practical nurses (LPNs) and healthcare aides (HCAs) whom they supervise. Little research exists that examines the area of supportive relationships between nursing staff and supervisors in these settings. The purpose of this study was to gather data that could improve management practices in long-term care residential facilities and enhance the quality of the supervisory relationships between supervisors (nurse managers and RNs) and care providers (HCAs and LPNs) in these settings. The study also identified factors that influence the supervisors' ability to establish supportive relationships with care providers. The challenges and barriers to nurse managers and leaders related to enacting supportive behaviors are discussed as well as their implications for long-term care settings.

Early Postimplant Speech Perception and Language Skills Predict Long-Term Language and Neurocognitive Outcomes Following Pediatric Cochlear Implantation

PubMed Central

Kronenberger, William G.; Castellanos, Irina; Pisoni, David B.

2017-01-01

Purpose We sought to determine whether speech perception and language skills measured early after cochlear implantation in children who are deaf, and early postimplant growth in speech perception and language skills, predict long-term speech perception, language, and neurocognitive outcomes. Method Thirty-six long-term users of cochlear implants, implanted at an average age of 3.4 years, completed measures of speech perception, language, and executive functioning an average of 14.4 years postimplantation. Speech perception and language skills measured in the 1st and 2nd years postimplantation and open-set word recognition measured in the 3rd and 4th years postimplantation were obtained from a research database in order to assess predictive relations with long-term outcomes. Results Speech perception and language skills at 6 and 18 months postimplantation were correlated with long-term outcomes for language, verbal working memory, and parent-reported executive functioning. Open-set word recognition was correlated with early speech perception and language skills and long-term speech perception and language outcomes. Hierarchical regressions showed that early speech perception and language skills at 6 months postimplantation and growth in these skills from 6 to 18 months both accounted for substantial variance in long-term outcomes for language and verbal working memory that was not explained by conventional demographic and hearing factors. Conclusion Speech perception and language skills measured very early postimplantation, and early postimplant growth in speech perception and language, may be clinically relevant markers of long-term language and neurocognitive outcomes in users of cochlear implants. Supplemental materials https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.5216200 PMID:28724130

Emotion regulation predicts marital satisfaction: more than a wives' tale.

PubMed

Bloch, Lian; Haase, Claudia M; Levenson, Robert W

2014-02-01

Emotion regulation is generally thought to be a critical ingredient for successful interpersonal relationships. Ironically, few studies have investigated the link between how well spouses regulate emotion and how satisfied they are with their marriages. We utilized data from a 13-year, 3-wave longitudinal study of middle-aged (40-50 years old) and older (60-70 years old) long-term married couples, focusing on the associations between downregulation of negative emotion (measured during discussions of an area of marital conflict at Wave 1) and marital satisfaction (measured at all 3 waves). Downregulation of negative emotion was assessed by determining how quickly spouses reduced signs of negative emotion (in emotional experience, emotional behavior, and physiological arousal) after negative emotion events. Data were analyzed using actor-partner interdependence modeling. Findings showed that (a) greater downregulation of wives' negative experience and behavior predicted greater marital satisfaction for wives and husbands concurrently and (b) greater downregulation of wives' negative behavior predicted increases in wives' marital satisfaction longitudinally. Wives' use of constructive communication (measured between Waves 1 and 2) mediated the longitudinal associations. These results show the benefits of wives' downregulation of negative emotion during conflict for marital satisfaction and point to wives' constructive communication as a mediating pathway. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Emotion regulation predicts marital satisfaction: More than a wives’ tale

PubMed Central

Bloch, Lian; Haase, Claudia M.; Levenson, Robert W.

2014-01-01

Emotion regulation is generally thought to be a critical ingredient for successful interpersonal relationships. Ironically, few studies have investigated the link between how well spouses regulate emotion and how satisfied they are with their marriages. We utilized data from a 13-year, 3-wave longitudinal study of middle-aged (40–50 years old) and older (60–70 years old) long-term married couples, focusing on the associations between downregulation of negative emotion (measured during discussions of an area of marital conflict at Wave 1) and marital satisfaction (measured at all three waves). Downregulation of negative emotion was assessed by determining how quickly spouses reduced signs of negative emotion (in emotional experience, emotional behavior, and physiological arousal) after negative emotion events. Data were analyzed using actor-partner interdependence modeling. Findings showed that (a) greater downregulation of wives’ negative experience and behavior predicted greater marital satisfaction for wives and husbands concurrently and (b) greater downregulation of wives’ negative behavior predicted increases in wives’ marital satisfaction longitudinally. Wives’ use of constructive communication (measured between Waves 1 and 2) mediated the longitudinal associations. These results show the benefits of wives’ downregulation of negative emotion during conflict for marital satisfaction and point to wives’ constructive communication as a mediating pathway. PMID:24188061

Long-term orbit prediction for China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft based on mean atmosphere model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Miao, Manqian

Tiangong-1 is China's test module for future space station. It has gone through three successful rendezvous and dockings with Shenzhou spacecrafts from 2011 to 2013. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit sometimes needs to be predicted for a long period of time. As Tiangong-1 works in a low-Earth orbit with an altitude of about 300-400 km, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 10-20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce the semi-major axis error and the overall position error up to a few kilometers and several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSIS00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during precise orbit determination (POD). For applications in the long-term orbit prediction, the observations are first accumulated. With sufficiently long period of observations, we are able to obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series bears the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periods. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. We show that the densities predicted with this approach can serve to increase the accuracy of the predicted orbit. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700m and overall position errors better than 600km.

Predictors of Short- and Long-Term Attrition From the Parents as Agents of Change Randomized Controlled Trial for Managing Pediatric Obesity.

PubMed

Spence, Nicholas D; Newton, Amanda S; Keaschuk, Rachel A; Ambler, Kathryn A; Jetha, Mary M; Holt, Nicholas L; Rosychuk, Rhonda J; Spence, John C; Sharma, Arya M; Ball, Geoff D C

Attrition in pediatric weight management is a substantial problem. This study examined factors associated with short- and long-term attrition from a lifestyle and behavioral intervention for parents of children with overweight or obesity. Fifty-two families with children ages 6 to 12 years old and body mass index at or above the 85th percentile participated in a randomized controlled trial focused on parents, comparing parent-based cognitive behavioral therapy with parent-based psychoeducation for pediatric weight management. We examined program attrition using two clinical phases of the intervention: short-term and long-term attrition, modeled using the general linear model. Predictors included intervention type, child/parent weight status, sociodemographic factors, and health of the family system. Higher self-assessed health of the family system was associated with lower short-term attrition; higher percentage of intervention sessions attended by parents was associated with lower long-term attrition. Different variables were significant in our short- and long-term models. Attrition might best be conceptualized based on short- and long-term phases of clinical, parent-based interventions for pediatric weight management. Copyright © 2016 National Association of Pediatric Nurse Practitioners. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Environmental exposure effects on composite materials for commercial aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gibbons, M. N.

1982-01-01

The data base for composite materials' properties as they are affected by the environments encountered in operating conditions, both in flight and at ground terminals is expanded. Absorbed moisture degrades the mechanical properties of graphite/epoxy laminates at elevated temperatures. Since airplane components are frequently exposed to atmospheric moisture, rain, and accumulated water, quantitative data are required to evaluate the amount of fluids absorbed under various environmental conditions and the subsequent effects on material properties. In addition, accelerated laboratory test techniques are developed are reliably capable of predicting long term behavior. An accelerated environmental exposure testing procedure is developed, and experimental results are correlated and compared with analytical results to establish the level of confidence for predicting composite material properties.

A Neuroprotective Effect of the Glutamate Receptor Antagonist MK801 on Long-Term Cognitive and Behavioral Outcomes Secondary to Experimental Cerebral Malaria.

PubMed

de Miranda, Aline Silva; Brant, Fátima; Vieira, Luciene Bruno; Rocha, Natália Pessoa; Vieira, Érica Leandro Marciano; Rezende, Gustavo Henrique Souza; de Oliveira Pimentel, Pollyana Maria; Moraes, Marcio F D; Ribeiro, Fabíola Mara; Ransohoff, Richard M; Teixeira, Mauro Martins; Machado, Fabiana Simão; Rachid, Milene Alvarenga; Teixeira, Antônio Lúcio

2017-11-01

Cerebral malaria (CM) is a life-threatening complication of Plasmodium falciparum infection, which can result in long-term cognitive and behavioral deficits despite successful anti-malarial therapy. Due to the substantial social and economic burden of CM, the development of adjuvant therapies is a scientific goal of highest priority. Apart from vascular and immune responses, changes in glutamate system have been reported in CM pathogenesis suggesting a potential therapeutic target. Based on that, we hypothesized that interventions in the glutamatergic system induced by blockage of N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors could attenuate experimental CM long-term cognitive and behavioral outcomes. Before the development of evident CM signs, susceptible mice infected with Plasmodium berghei ANKA (PbA) strain were initiated on treatment with dizocilpine maleate (MK801, 0.5 mg/kg), a noncompetitive NMDA receptor antagonist. On day 5 post-infection, mice were treated orally with a 10-day course chloroquine (CQ, 30 mg/kg). Control mice also received saline, CQ or MK801 + CQ therapy. After 10 days of cessation of CQ treatment, magnetic resonance images (MRI), behavioral and immunological assays were performed. Indeed, MK801 combined with CQ prevented long-term memory impairment and depressive-like behavior following successful PbA infection resolution. In addition, MK801 also modulated the immune system by promoting a balance of TH1/TH2 response and upregulating neurotrophic factors levels in the frontal cortex and hippocampus. Moreover, hippocampus abnormalities observed by MRI were partially prevented by MK801 treatment. Our results indicate that NMDA receptor antagonists can be neuroprotective in CM and could be a valuable adjuvant strategy for the management of the long-term impairment observed in CM.

Linking molar organizational climate and strategic implementation climate to clinicians' use of evidence-based psychotherapy techniques: cross-sectional and lagged analyses from a 2-year observational study.

PubMed

Williams, Nathaniel J; Ehrhart, Mark G; Aarons, Gregory A; Marcus, Steven C; Beidas, Rinad S

2018-06-25

Behavioral health organizations are characterized by multiple organizational climates, including molar climate, which encompasses clinicians' shared perceptions of how the work environment impacts their personal well-being, and strategic implementation climate, which includes clinicians' shared perceptions of the extent to which evidence-based practice implementation is expected, supported, and rewarded by the organization. Theory suggests these climates have joint, cross-level effects on clinicians' implementation of evidence-based practice and that these effects may be long term (i.e., up to 2 years); however, no empirical studies have tested these relationships. We hypothesize that molar climate moderates implementation climate's concurrent and long-term relationships with clinicians' use of evidence-based practice such that strategic implementation climate will have its most positive effects when it is accompanied by a positive molar climate. Hypotheses were tested using data collected from 235 clinicians in 20 behavioral health organizations. At baseline, clinicians reported on molar climate and implementation climate. At baseline and at a 2-year follow-up, all clinicians who were present in the organizations reported on their use of cognitive-behavioral psychotherapy techniques, an evidence-based practice for youth psychiatric disorders. Two-level mixed-effects regression models tested whether baseline molar climate and implementation climate interacted in predicting clinicians' evidence-based practice use at baseline and at 2-year follow-up. In organizations with more positive molar climates at baseline, higher levels of implementation climate predicted increased evidence-based practice use among clinicians who were present at baseline and among clinicians who were present in the organizations at 2-year follow-up; however, in organizations with less positive molar climates, implementation climate was not related to clinicians' use of evidence-based practice at either time point. Optimizing clinicians' implementation of evidence-based practice in behavioral health requires attention to both molar climate and strategic implementation climate. Strategies that focus exclusively on implementation climate may not be effective levers for behavior change if the organization does not also engender a positive molar climate. These findings have implications for the development of implementation theory and effective implementation strategies.

Technical reference for the use of the slow crack growth test for modeling and predicting the long-term performance of polyethylene gas pipes. Final report, March 1987-May 1992. Volume 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kanninen, M.F.; O'Donoghue, P.E.; Popelar, C.F.

1993-02-01

The project was undertaken for the purposes of quantifying the Battelle slow crack growth (SCG) test for predicting long-term performance of polyethylene gas distribution pipes, and of demonstrating the applicability of the methodology for use by the gas industry for accelerated characterization testing, thereby bringing the SCG test development effort to a closure. The work has revealed that the Battelle SCG test, and the linear fracture mechanics interpretation that it currently utilizes, is valid for a class of PE materials. The long-term performance of these materials in various operating conditions can therefore be effectively predicted.

Developing a Referral Protocol for Community-Based Occupational Therapy Services in Taiwan: A Logistic Regression Analysis

PubMed Central

Chang, Ling-Hui; Tsai, Athena Yi-Jung; Huang, Wen-Ni

2016-01-01

Because resources for long-term care services are limited, timely and appropriate referral for rehabilitation services is critical for optimizing clients’ functions and successfully integrating them into the community. We investigated which client characteristics are most relevant in predicting Taiwan’s community-based occupational therapy (OT) service referral based on experts’ beliefs. Data were collected in face-to-face interviews using the Multidimensional Assessment Instrument (MDAI). Community-dwelling participants (n = 221) ≥ 18 years old who reported disabilities in the previous National Survey of Long-term Care Needs in Taiwan were enrolled. The standard for referral was the judgment and agreement of two experienced occupational therapists who reviewed the results of the MDAI. Logistic regressions and Generalized Additive Models were used for analysis. Two predictive models were proposed, one using basic activities of daily living (BADLs) and one using instrumental ADLs (IADLs). Dementia, psychiatric disorders, cognitive impairment, joint range-of-motion limitations, fear of falling, behavioral or emotional problems, expressive deficits (in the BADL-based model), and limitations in IADLs or BADLs were significantly correlated with the need for referral. Both models showed high area under the curve (AUC) values on receiver operating curve testing (AUC = 0.977 and 0.972, respectively). The probability of being referred for community OT services was calculated using the referral algorithm. The referral protocol facilitated communication between healthcare professionals to make appropriate decisions for OT referrals. The methods and findings should be useful for developing referral protocols for other long-term care services. PMID:26863544

Developing a Referral Protocol for Community-Based Occupational Therapy Services in Taiwan: A Logistic Regression Analysis.

PubMed

Mao, Hui-Fen; Chang, Ling-Hui; Tsai, Athena Yi-Jung; Huang, Wen-Ni; Wang, Jye

2016-01-01

Because resources for long-term care services are limited, timely and appropriate referral for rehabilitation services is critical for optimizing clients' functions and successfully integrating them into the community. We investigated which client characteristics are most relevant in predicting Taiwan's community-based occupational therapy (OT) service referral based on experts' beliefs. Data were collected in face-to-face interviews using the Multidimensional Assessment Instrument (MDAI). Community-dwelling participants (n = 221) ≥ 18 years old who reported disabilities in the previous National Survey of Long-term Care Needs in Taiwan were enrolled. The standard for referral was the judgment and agreement of two experienced occupational therapists who reviewed the results of the MDAI. Logistic regressions and Generalized Additive Models were used for analysis. Two predictive models were proposed, one using basic activities of daily living (BADLs) and one using instrumental ADLs (IADLs). Dementia, psychiatric disorders, cognitive impairment, joint range-of-motion limitations, fear of falling, behavioral or emotional problems, expressive deficits (in the BADL-based model), and limitations in IADLs or BADLs were significantly correlated with the need for referral. Both models showed high area under the curve (AUC) values on receiver operating curve testing (AUC = 0.977 and 0.972, respectively). The probability of being referred for community OT services was calculated using the referral algorithm. The referral protocol facilitated communication between healthcare professionals to make appropriate decisions for OT referrals. The methods and findings should be useful for developing referral protocols for other long-term care services.

Lifestyle modification in the management of the metabolic syndrome: achievements and challenges

PubMed Central

Grave, Riccardo Dalle; Calugi, Simona; Centis, Elena; Marzocchi, Rebecca; Ghoch, Marwan El; Marchesini, Giulio

2010-01-01

Lifestyle modification based on behavior therapy is the most important and effective strategy to manage the metabolic syndrome. Modern lifestyle modification therapy combines specific recommendations on diet and exercise with behavioral and cognitive strategies. The intervention may be delivered face-to-face or in groups, or in groups combined with individual sessions. The main challenge of treatment is helping patients maintain healthy behavior changes in the long term. In the last few years, several strategies have been evaluated to improve the long-term effect of lifestyle modification. Promising results have been achieved by combining lifestyle modification with pharmacotherapy, using meals replacement, setting higher physical activity goals, and long-term care. The key role of cognitive processes in the success/failure of weight loss and maintenance suggests that new cognitive procedures and strategies should be included in the traditional lifestyle modification interventions, in order to help patients build a mind-set favoring long-term lifestyle changes. These new strategies raise optimistic expectations for an effective treatment of metabolic syndrome with lifestyle modifications, provided public health programs to change the environment where patients live support them. PMID:21437107

Drinking High Amounts of Alcohol as a Short-Term Mating Strategy: The Impact of Short-Term Mating Motivations on Young Adults' Drinking Behavior.

PubMed

Vincke, Eveline

2017-01-01

Previous research indicates that drinking large quantities of alcohol could function as a short-term mating strategy for young adults in mating situations. However, no study investigated whether this is actually the case. Therefore, in this article, the link between short-term mating motivations and drinking high amounts of alcohol is tested. First, a survey study ( N = 345) confirmed that young adults who engage in binge drinking are more short-term oriented in their mating strategy than young adults who never engage in binge drinking. Also, the more short-term-oriented young adults were in their mating strategy, the more often binge drinking behavior was conducted. In addition, an experimental study ( N = 229) empirically verified that short-term mating motivations increase young adults' drinking behavior, more so than long-term mating motivations. Results of the experiment clearly showed that young men and young women are triggered to drink more alcoholic beverages in a short-term mating situation compared to a long-term mating situation. Furthermore, the mating situation also affected young adults' perception of drinking behavior. Young adults in a short-term mating context perceived a higher amount of alcoholic beverages as heavy drinking compared to peers in a long-term mating context. These findings confirm that a high alcohol consumption functions as a short-term mating strategy for both young men and young women. Insights gained from this article might be of interest to institutions aimed at targeting youth alcohol (ab)use.

Approaches for predicting long-term sickness absence. Re: Schouten et al. "Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence: cut-off points for the Work Ability Index".

PubMed

van Amelsvoort, Ludovic Gpm; Jansen, Nicole W H; Kant, I Jmert

2015-05-01

We read with much interest the article of Schouten et al (1) on identifying workers with a high risk for future long-term sickness absence using the Work Ability Index (WAI). The ability to identify high-risk workers might facilitate targeted interventions for such workers and, consequently, can reduce sickness absence levels and improve workers' health. Earlier studies by both Tamela et al (2), Kant et al (3), and Lexis et al (4) have demonstrated that such an approach, based on the identification of high-risk workers and a subsequent intervention, can be effectively applied in practice to reduce sickness absence significantly. The reason for our letter on Schouten et al's article is twofold. First, by including workers already on sick leave in a study predicting long-term sick leave will result in an overestimation of the predictive properties of the instrument and biased predictors, especially when also the outcome of interest is included as a factor in the prediction model. Second, we object to the use of the term "screening" when subjects with the condition screened for are included in the study. Reinforced by the inclusion of sickness absence in the prediction model, including workers already on sick leave will shift the focus of the study findings towards the prediction of (re)current sickness absence and workers with a below-average return-to-work rate, rather than the identification of workers at high risk for the onset of future long-term sickness absence. The possibilities for prevention will shift from pure secondary prevention to a mix of secondary and tertiary prevention. As a consequence, the predictors of the model presented in the Schouten et al article can be used as a basis for tailoring neither preventive measures nor interventions. Moreover, including the outcome (sickness absence) as a predictor in the model, especially in a mixed population including workers with and without the condition (on sick leave), will result in biased predictors and an overestimation of the predictive value. A methodological approach of related issues is provided in the works of Glymour et al (5) and Hamilton et al (6). This phenomenon is even more clearly illustrated by the predictive properties of the workability index, as described by Alavinia et al (7, page 328), which reported that "when adjusted for individual characteristics, lifestyle factors, and work characteristics, two dimensions of the WAI were significant predictors for both moderate and long durations of sickness absence: (i) the presence of sickness absence in the past 12 months prior to the medical examination and (ii) experienced limitations due to health problems." So, when applied to the study by Schouten et al (1), this means that most of the predictive value would be related to the factors "sickness absence in the past 12 months". In addition, we object to the use of the term "screening" in the Schouten et al study as it includes workers with the intended outcome (long-term sickness absence). One can identify three separate aims to study the longitudinal association between risk factors and subsequent long-term sickness absence: (i) to establish causal risk factors for long-term sickness absence, often to find clues for primary preventive strategies (beyond the scope here); (ii) to identify high-risk workers who are still at work and might benefit from an intervention before sickness absence occurs (secondary prevention); and (iii) to identify workers on sick leave who might suffer a below-average return-to-work rate or have a high risk for the recurrence of (long-term) sickness absence and might benefit from intensification or optimization of the return-to-work process (tertiary prevention). In this light, one needs to separate screening instruments from predictive instruments and reserve the term "screening" for the situation as defined by Wilson and Junger (8, page 7): "The object of screening for disease is to discover those among the apparently well who are in fact suffering from disease" (ie, situations of secondary prevention). This means that, when applying this definition on long-term sickness absence under the precondition that the individuals are still at work, screening enables the identification of high-risk individuals in the early "stages" of a "disease" that can progress into long-term sickness absence. In the case of the Schouten et al study, the population at risk, as derived from their predictive instrument, consists of workers with and without sickness absence, and as such excludes the use of the term "screening" in this case. To conclude, we have substantiated that, in addition to correct usage of the term "screening", careful selection of the study population, predictors and most importantly the aim of the predictive model are essential in the process of developing predictive instruments aimed at identifying workers at high risk of long-term sickness absence. Two fundamentally different approaches are possible. One approach aims at identifying workers on sick leave with either a below-average chance to return to work an/or a high risk for a successive episode of long-term sickness absence. From a methodological and practical point of view, such an instrument should be developed and validated among workers already on sick leave. A second approach aims at identifying workers who are still at work but at high risk for future long-term sickness absence. To develop and validate such an instrument, a study sample where workers already on sick leave are excluded is a prerequisite. Such instruments fit in a pro-active approach of preventing future sickness absence, where an early intervention can be offered to those workers with an increased risk for future sickness absence.

Caring about Tomorrow: Future Orientation, Environmental Attitudes and Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carmi, Nurit

2013-01-01

Almost any pro-environmental behavior arouses a temporal conflict, as protecting long-term interests requires the sacrifice of short-term ones. Similarly, many health promoting behaviors may involve present discomfort for the sake of future well-being. In both contexts, health or environmental, developed future orientation (FO) is required to…

Long-term bed degradation in Maryland streams (phase 3, part I) : urban streams in the Piedmont Plateau province.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-05-01

Estimation of potential long-term down-cutting of the stream bed is necessary for evaluation and design of bridges for scour and culverts for fish passage. The purpose of this study has been to improve predictions of this potential long-term bed degr...

Modeling the Sustainability of a Ceramic Water Filter Intervention

PubMed Central

Mellor, Jonathan; Abebe, Lydia; Ehdaie, Beeta; Dillingham, Rebecca; Smith, James

2014-01-01

Ceramic water filters (CWFs) are a point-of-use water treatment technology that has shown promise in preventing early childhood diarrhea (ECD) in resource-limited settings. Despite this promise, some researchers have questioned their ability to reduce ECD incidences over the long term since most effectiveness trials conducted to date are less than one year in duration limiting their ability to assess long-term sustainability factors. Most trials also suffer from lack of blinding making them potentially biased. This study uses an agent-based model (ABM) to explore factors related to the long-term sustainability of CWFs in preventing ECD and was based on a three year longitudinal field study. Factors such as filter user compliance, microbial removal effectiveness, filter cleaning and compliance declines were explored. Modeled results indicate that broadly defined human behaviors like compliance and declining microbial effectiveness due to improper maintenance are primary drivers of the outcome metrics of household drinking water quality and ECD rates. The model predicts that a ceramic filter intervention can reduce ECD incidence amongst under two year old children by 41.3%. However, after three years, the average filter is almost entirely ineffective at reducing ECD incidence due to declining filter microbial removal effectiveness resulting from improper maintenance. The model predicts very low ECD rates are possible if compliance rates are 80-90%, filter log reduction efficiency is 3 or greater and there are minimal long-term compliance declines. Cleaning filters at least once every 4 months makes it more likely to achieve very low ECD rates as does the availability of replacement filters for purchase. These results help to understand the heterogeneity seen in previous intervention-control trials and reemphasize the need for researchers to accurately measure confounding variables and ensure that field trials are at least 2-3 years in duration. In summary, the CWF can be a highly effective tool in the fight against ECD, but every effort should be made by implementing agencies to ensure consistent use and maintenance. PMID:24355289

Ultra-Sensitive Elemental Analysis Using Plasmas 4.Application of Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry to the Study of Environmental Radioactivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, Satoshi

Applications of inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) to the determination of long-lived radionuclides in environmental samples were summarized. In order to predict the long-term behavior of the radionuclides, related stable elements were also determined. Compared with radioactivity measurements, the ICP-MS method has advantages in terms of its simple analytical procedures, prompt measurement time, and capability of determining the isotope ratio such as240Pu/239Pu, which can not be separated by radiation. Concentration of U and Th in Japanese surface soils were determined in order to determine the background level of the natural radionuclides. The 235U/238U ratio was successfully used to detect the release of enriched U from reconversion facilities to the environment and to understand the source term. The 240Pu/239Pu ratios in environmental samples varied widely depending on the Pu sources. Applications of ICP-MS to the measurement of I and Tc isotopes were also described. The ratio between radiocesium and stable Cs is useful for judging the equilibrium of deposited radiocesium in a forest ecosystem.

Bupropion (Wellbutrin) and Pregnancy

MedlinePlus

... have any long-term effect on my baby’s behavior and development? There is very little known about long term effects on children exposed to bupropion during pregnancy. One study has suggested an association between prenatal exposure to ...

Assessing the value of post-processed state-of-the-art long-term weather forecast ensembles for agricultural water management mediated by farmers' behaviours

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yu; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

2016-04-01

Recent advances in modelling of coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics significantly improved skills of long-term climate forecast from global circulation models (GCMs). These more accurate weather predictions are supposed to be a valuable support to farmers in optimizing farming operations (e.g. crop choice, cropping and watering time) and for more effectively coping with the adverse impacts of climate variability. Yet, assessing how actually valuable this information can be to a farmer is not straightforward and farmers' response must be taken into consideration. Indeed, in the context of agricultural systems potentially useful forecast information should alter stakeholders' expectation, modify their decisions, and ultimately produce an impact on their performance. Nevertheless, long-term forecast are mostly evaluated in terms of accuracy (i.e., forecast quality) by comparing hindcast and observed values and only few studies investigated the operational value of forecast looking at the gain of utility within the decision-making context, e.g. by considering the derivative of forecast information, such as simulated crop yields or simulated soil moisture, which are essential to farmers' decision-making process. In this study, we contribute a step further in the assessment of the operational value of long-term weather forecasts products by embedding these latter into farmers' behavioral models. This allows a more critical assessment of the forecast value mediated by the end-users' perspective, including farmers' risk attitudes and behavioral patterns. Specifically, we evaluate the operational value of thirteen state-of-the-art long-range forecast products against climatology forecast and empirical prediction (i.e. past year climate and historical average) within an integrated agronomic modeling framework embedding an implicit model of the farmers' decision-making process. Raw ensemble datasets are bias-corrected and downscaled using a stochastic weather generator, in order to address the mismatch of the spatio-temporal scale between forecast data from GCMs and our model. For each product, the experiment is composed by two cascade simulations: 1) an ex-ante simulation using forecast data, and 2) an ex-post simulation with observations. Multi-year simulations are performed to account for climate variability, and the operational value of the different forecast products is evaluated against the perfect foresight on the basis of expected crop productivity as well as the final decisions under different decision-making criterions. Our results show that not all products generate beneficial effects to farmers' performance, and the forecast errors might be amplified due to farmers' decision-making process and risk attitudes, yielding little or even worse performance compared with the empirical approaches.

An Extended View of Ozone and Chemistry in the Atmosphere of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Ramsey L.; Fast, Kelly E.; Kostiuk, T.; Lefevre, Frank; Hewagama, Tilak; Livengood, Timothy A.

2011-01-01

We present an ongoing effort to characterize chemistry in Mars' atmosphere in multiple seasons on timescales longer than spaceflight missions through coordinated efforts by GSFC's HIPWAC spectrometer and Mars Express SPICAM, archival measurements, and tests/application of photochemical models. The trace species ozone (03) is an effective probe of Mars' atmospheric chemistry because it is destroyed by odd-hydrogen species (HOx, from water vapor photolysis). Observed ozone is a critical test for specific predictions by 3-D photochemical models (spatial, diurnal, seasonal). Coordinated measurements by HIPWAC and SPICAM quantitatively linked mission data to the 23-year GSFC ozone data record and also revealed unanticipated inter-decadal variability of same-season ozone abundances, a possible indicator of changing cloud activity (heterogeneous sink for HOx). A detailed study of long-term conditions is critical to characterizing the predictability of Mars' seasonal chemical behavior, particularly in light of the implications of and the lack of explanation for reported methane behavior.

Fast Quantum Algorithm for Predicting Descriptive Statistics of Stochastic Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams Colin P.

1999-01-01

Stochastic processes are used as a modeling tool in several sub-fields of physics, biology, and finance. Analytic understanding of the long term behavior of such processes is only tractable for very simple types of stochastic processes such as Markovian processes. However, in real world applications more complex stochastic processes often arise. In physics, the complicating factor might be nonlinearities; in biology it might be memory effects; and in finance is might be the non-random intentional behavior of participants in a market. In the absence of analytic insight, one is forced to understand these more complex stochastic processes via numerical simulation techniques. In this paper we present a quantum algorithm for performing such simulations. In particular, we show how a quantum algorithm can predict arbitrary descriptive statistics (moments) of N-step stochastic processes in just O(square root of N) time. That is, the quantum complexity is the square root of the classical complexity for performing such simulations. This is a significant speedup in comparison to the current state of the art.

Measuring short-term and long-term physiological stress effects by cortisol reactivity in saliva and hair.

PubMed

van Holland, Berry J; Frings-Dresen, Monique H W; Sluiter, Judith K

2012-11-01

The aims of this study were to investigate (1) the concurrent relationship between short-term and long-term stress reactivity measured by cortisol excretion and (2) the relationship of these physiological stress effects with self-reported stress and need for recovery after work (NFR). Participants were production workers in the meat-processing industry. Short-term cortisol excretion was calculated by summing 18 saliva samples, sampled over a 3-day period. Samples were delivered by 37 participants. Twenty-nine of them also supplied one hair sample of at least 3 cm in length for an analysis of long-term (3 months) cortisol excretion. All of them filled in a short questionnaire on self-reported stress and NFR. Self-reported stress was assessed by a three-item stress screener; NFR was assessed by an 11-item scale. Short-term and long-term cortisol excretion are significantly, but moderately, associated (r = 0.41, P = 0.03). Short-term and long-term cortisol excretion correlated weakly to self-reported stress and NFR (correlations varied from -0.04 to 0.21). Short-term and long-term physiological stress excretion levels are moderately associated. Physiological stress effects assessed from saliva and hair cannot be used interchangeably with self-reported stress because they only correlate weakly. To better predict long-term cortisol excretion in workers, the predictive value of short-term cortisol excretion must be evaluated in a prognostic longitudinal study in a working population.

Predictors of outcomes and refractoriness in status epilepticus: A prospective study.

PubMed

Atmaca, Murat Mert; Bebek, Nerses; Baykan, Betül; Gökyiğit, Ayşen; Gürses, Candan

2017-10-01

The objective of this study was to determine the predictors of outcomes and refractoriness in status epilepticus (SE). This is a prospective study of 59 adult patients with SE who were admitted to the Emergency Department between February 2012 and December 2013. The effects of clinical, demographic, and electrophysiologic features of patients with SE were evaluated. To evaluate outcome in SE, STESS, mSTESS, and EMSE scales were used. Logistic regression analysis showed that being aged ≥65years (p=0.02, OR: 17.68, 95% CI: [1.6-198.4]) for the short term and having potentially fatal etiology (p=0.027, OR: 11.7, 95% CI: [1.3-103]) for the long term were the only independent predictors of poor outcomes; whereas, the presence of periodic epileptiform discharges (PEDs) in EEG was the only independent predictor of refractoriness (p=0.032, OR: 13.7, 95% CI: [1.3-148.5]). The patients with ≥3 Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) did not have poorer outcomes in the short- (p=0.157) and long term (p=0.065). There was no difference between patients with 0-2, 3-4, and ≥4 mSTESS in the short- and long term in terms of outcome (p=0.28 and 0.063, respectively). Also, there was no difference between subgroups (convulsive SE [CSE], nonconvulsive SE [NCSE], and epilepsia partialis continua [EPC]) in terms of STESS and mSTESS. When patients with EPC were excluded, both STESS and mSTESS scores of the patients correlated with poorer long-term outcomes (p=0.025 and 0.017, respectively). The patients with ≥64 points in the Epidemiology-based Mortality in SE-Etiology, age, comorbidity, EEG (EMSE-EACE) score and those with ≥27 points in EMSE-Etiology, age, comorbidity (EMSE-EAC) score did not have poorer outcomes in the short term (p=0.06 and 0.274, respectively) while they had significantly poorer outcome in the long term (p<0.001 and 0.002, respectively). In subgroup analysis, patients with CSE with ≥64 points in EMSE-EACE had significantly poorer outcome in the both short- and long term (p=0.014 and 0.012, respectively), and patients with CSE with ≥27 points in EMSE-EAC had significantly poorer outcome in the long term (p=0.03) but not in the short term (p=0.186). Outcomes did not correlate with EMSE scores in patients with NCSE and EPC. Status epilepticus was terminated with intravenous (IV) levetiracetam (LEV) in 68.75% of patients and with IV phenytoin (PHT) in 83.3% of patients. No statistically significant difference was found between the two groups in terms of efficacy (p=0.334). Being aged ≥65years predicts poor short-term outcomes, and having potentially fatal etiology predicts poor long-term outcomes, which highlight the importance of SE treatment management in the elderly. Both STESS and mSTESS are not predictive for poor outcomes in EPC. Excluding patients with EPC, STESS, and mSTESS could predict poor long-term outcomes but not in the short term in SE. Epidemiology-based Mortality in Status Epilepticus score could predict poor outcome in the long term better than STESS and mSTESS. Specifically, EMSE scores correlated with poor outcome in patients with CSE but not with NCSE and EPC. New scales are needed to predict outcome especially in patients with NCSE and EPC. The presence of PEDs in EEG is a predictor of RSE, and EMSE score can also be used to predict RSE. There was no difference in the efficacy of IV LEV and IV PHT in SE. This study is significant for having one of the longest follow-up periods in the literature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Influence of Cultural Orientation on Associations between Puerto Rican Adolescent Mothers’ Parenting and Toddler Compliance and Defiance

PubMed Central

Wood, Lauren E.; Grau, Josefina M.; Smith, Erin N.; Duran, Petra A.; Castellanos, Patricia

2016-01-01

Objectives It is imperative that individual differences in the cultural contexts of adolescent mothers, whose parenting is often linked to poor child outcomes, be better understood, especially amongst Puerto Rican-origin mothers who experience high rates of poverty. Behaviors that mothers use to elicit compliance from their children are important to investigate, because children’s ability to engage in regulated, compliant behavior has long term consequences for their adjustment. This study tested whether mothers’ orientation to both American and Latino cultures influenced the associations between such maternal behaviors and compliant and defiant child behaviors. Method The sample included 123 young, Puerto Rican-origin mothers and their 24-month old toddlers. Behaviors coded from a toy clean-up task measured maternal guidance and control and child compliance and defiance, and acculturation and enculturation were measured with a self-report questionnaire. Results Maternal guidance predicted more child compliance, with no significant variations by cultural orientation; however, mothers who were more enculturated had children who were more compliant. As predicted, mothers’ more frequent use of control was related to more child defiance for mothers reporting high levels of acculturation, and not for less acculturated mothers. Conclusions Findings support the hypothesis that individual differences in cultural orientation influence variations in associations between certain maternal and child behaviors. PMID:27454887

The influence of personality traits and emotional and behavioral problems on repetitive nonsuicidal self-injury in a school sample.

PubMed

Lüdtke, Janine; Weizenegger, Benedict; Rauber, Rachel; Contin, Brigitte; In-Albon, Tina; Schmid, Marc

2017-04-01

Nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) is highly prevalent among adolescents and associated with various mental health problems and suicidality. Previous studies have found that certain personality traits are related to NSSI behavior, however only few studies examined personality traits in adolescents with NSSI. Our study aimed to assess the relationship between personality traits and emotional and behavioral problems in predicting repetitive NSSI among adolescents from a school sample. Four hundred and forty-seven students (M=14.95years, SD=0.74, 52% male) completed self-report measures on NSSI, personality traits, and emotional and behavioral problems. The past year prevalence of occasional and repetitive NSSI was 4.9% and 6.3% respectively. Repetitive NSSI was significantly associated with female gender, higher levels of age, novelty seeking, harm avoidance, self-transcendence, antisocial behavior, and positive self and lower levels of persistence and self-directedness in univariate analyses. However, multivariate logistic regression analyses indicated that only high levels of antisocial behavior and low levels of self-directedness significantly predicted repetitive NSSI. The association between a lack of self-directedness and NSSI emphasizes the significance of targeting self-directedness in psychotherapy by strengthening self-awareness, affect tolerance and emotion regulation, as well as establishing and pursuing long-term goals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis

PubMed Central

Kim, Tae Yeob; Lee, Jae Gon; Kim, Ji Yeoun; Kim, Sun Min; Kim, Jinoo; Jeong, Woo Kyoung

2016-01-01

Purpose The present study aimed to investigate the role of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) for prediction of long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Materials and Methods Clinical data from 97 non-critically-ill cirrhotic patients with HVPG measurements were retrospectively and consecutively collected between 2009 and 2012. Patients were classified according to clinical stages and presence of ascites. The prognostic accuracy of HVPG for death, survival curves, and hazard ratios were analyzed. Results During a median follow-up of 24 (interquartile range, 13-36) months, 22 patients (22.7%) died. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves of HVPG for predicting 1-year, 2-year, and overall mortality were 0.801, 0.737, and 0.687, respectively (all p<0.01). The best cut-off value of HVPG for predicting long-term overall mortality in all patients was 17 mm Hg. The mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 8.9% and 19.2%, respectively: 1.9% and 11.9% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 16.2% and 29.4% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.015). In the ascites group, the mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 3.9% and 17.6% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 17.5% and 35.2% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.044). Regarding the risk factors for mortality, both HVPG and model for end-stage liver disease were positively related with long-term mortality in all patients. Particularly, for the patients with ascites, both prothrombin time and HVPG were independent risk factors for predicting poor outcomes. Conclusion HVPG is useful for predicting the long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, especially in the presence of ascites. PMID:26632394

Promoting Healthy Weight with "Stability Skills First": A Randomized Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kiernan, Michaela; Brown, Susan D.; Schoffman, Danielle E.; Lee, Katherine; King, Abby C.; Taylor, C. Barr; Schleicher, Nina C.; Perri, Michael G.

2013-01-01

Objective: Although behavioral weight-loss interventions produce short-term weight loss, long-term maintenance remains elusive. This randomized trial examined whether learning a novel set of "stability skills" before losing weight improved long-term weight management. Stability skills were designed to optimize individuals' current…

The Psychometricization of Sigfluence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loase, John Frederick

The English language lacks a word that means long-term interpersonal influence of one person toward another. This failing likely conditions people to be superficial in their thinking, and consequently in their behavior. A new term, sigfluence, has been coined to define positive, long-term, significant, impactful, interpersonal influence. One of…

Puppy Temperament Assessments Predict Breed and American Kennel Club Group but Not Adult Temperament.

PubMed

Robinson, Lauren M; Skiver Thompson, Rebekah; Ha, James C

2016-01-01

Puppy assessments for companion dogs have shown mixed long-term reliability. Temperament is cited among the reasons for surrendering dogs to shelters. A puppy temperament test that reliably predicts adult behavior is one potential way to lower the number of dogs given to shelters. This study used a longitudinal design to assess temperament in puppies from 8 different breeds at 7 weeks old (n = 52) and 6 years old (n = 34) using modified temperament tests, physiological measures, and a follow-up questionnaire. For 7-week-old puppies, results revealed (a) puppy breed was predictable using 3 variables, (b) 4 American Kennel Club breed groups had some validity based on temperament, (c) temperament was variable within litters of puppies, and (d) certain measures of temperament were related to physiological measures (heart rate). Finally, puppy temperament assessments were reliable in predicting the scores of 2 of the 8 adult dog temperament measures. However, overall, the puppy temperament scores were unreliable in predicting adult temperament.

Low back pain and widespread pain predict sickness absence among industrial workers

PubMed Central

Morken, Tone; Riise, Trond; Moen, Bente; Hauge, Signe HV; Holien, Solrun; Langedrag, Anne; Pedersen, Svein; Saue, Inger Lise L; Seljebø, Guri M; Thoppil, Varughese

2003-01-01

Background The prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) in the aluminium industry is high, and there is a considerable work-related fraction. More knowledge about the predictors of sickness absence from MSD in this industry will be valuable in determining strategies for prevention. The aim of this study was to analyse the relative impact of body parts, psychosocial and individual factors as predictors for short- and long-term sickness absence from MSD among industrial workers. Methods A follow-up study was conducted among all the workers at eight aluminium plants in Norway. A questionnaire was completed by 5654 workers at baseline in 1998. A total of 3320 of these participated in the follow-up study in 2000. Cox regression analysis was applied to investigate the relative impact of MSD in various parts of the body and of psychosocial and individual factors reported in 1998 on short-term and long-term sickness absence from MSD reported in 2000. Results MSD accounted for 45% of all working days lost the year prior to follow-up in 2000. Blue-collar workers had significantly higher risk than white-collar workers for both short- and long-term sickness absence from MSD (long-term sickness absence: RR = 3.04, 95% CI 2.08–4.45). Widespread and low back pain in 1998 significantly predicted both short- and long-term sickness absence in 2000. In addition, shoulder pain predicted long-term sickness absence. Low social support predicted short-term sickness absence (RR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.11–1.49). Conclusions Reducing sickness absence from MSD among industrial workers requires focusing on the working conditions of blue-collar workers and risk factors for low back pain and widespread pain. Increasing social support in the work environment may have effects in reducing short-term sickness absence from MSD. PMID:12956891

Identifying and treating agitated behaviors in the long-term care setting.

PubMed

Hastings, S N; Thompson-Heisterman, A; Farrell, S P

1999-01-01

This article provides information on identification, assessment, and intervention techniques for agitated behaviors in the long-term care setting. Although the emphasis is on prevention and management of agitation, the article offers suggestions to assist health care providers in differentiating between delirium, psychosis, depression, anxiety, and dementia, which may place a resident at risk for agitation. Basic treatment approaches for each of these disorders is also reviewed.

Behavior Analysis of Forgiveness in Couples Therapy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cordova, James; Cautilli, Joseph; Simon, Corrina; Sabag, Robin Axelrod

2006-01-01

Behavioral couples' therapy has a long history of success with couples and is an empirically validated treatment for marital discord (Task Force on Promotion and Dissemination of Psychological Procedures, 1995). However, only about 50% of all couples in treatment experience long-term change (2 years). One of the founders of behavioral couples'…

Associations Between Long-Term Gang Membership and Informal Social Control Processes, Drug Use, and Delinquent Behavior Among Mexican American Youth

PubMed Central

Cepeda, Alice; Saint Onge, Jarron M.; Nowotny, Kathryn M.; Valdez, Avelardo

2018-01-01

Research has found that among juveniles weak ties to informal social control entities such as parents, school, and conventional peers increase the probability of the initiation and continuation of deviant behaviors such as drug use and crime. Given the weak ties of formal social control mechanisms in highly disadvantaged communities, informal social control mechanisms are often an important deterrent that reduce or moderate engagement in deviant behaviors among serious and persistent offenders. This analysis examines the association between long-term gang membership and adolescent informal social control processes, drug use, and delinquency. This research is based on data from a study of 160 Mexican American male gang members between the ages of 16 and 20. Findings suggest that among gang members in this context, commonly studied informal control mechanisms such as the family and schools do not function to deter long-term gang membership that is associated with serious criminal and violent behavior and drug use. The implications for future research on desistance or continuation of antisocial behavior across the life course are discussed. PMID:25979430

Decoupling processes and scales of shoreline morphodynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Henderson, Rachel E.; Schwab, William C.; Nelson, Timothy R.

2016-01-01

Behavior of coastal systems on time scales ranging from single storm events to years and decades is controlled by both small-scale sediment transport processes and large-scale geologic, oceanographic, and morphologic processes. Improved understanding of coastal behavior at multiple time scales is required for refining models that predict potential erosion hazards and for coastal management planning and decision-making. Here we investigate the primary controls on shoreline response along a geologically-variable barrier island on time scales resolving extreme storms and decadal variations over a period of nearly one century. An empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to a time series of shoreline positions at Fire Island, NY to identify patterns of shoreline variance along the length of the island. We establish that there are separable patterns of shoreline behavior that represent response to oceanographic forcing as well as patterns that are not explained by this forcing. The dominant shoreline behavior occurs over large length scales in the form of alternating episodes of shoreline retreat and advance, presumably in response to storms cycles. Two secondary responses include long-term response that is correlated to known geologic variations of the island and the other reflects geomorphic patterns with medium length scale. Our study also includes the response to Hurricane Sandy and a period of post-storm recovery. It was expected that the impacts from Hurricane Sandy would disrupt long-term trends and spatial patterns. We found that the response to Sandy at Fire Island is not notable or distinguishable from several other large storms of the prior decade.

Nonlinear dynamics and instability of aqueous dissolution of silicate glasses and minerals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Yifeng; Jove-Colon, Carlos F.; Kuhlman, Kristopher L.

2016-07-22

Aqueous dissolution of silicate glasses and minerals plays a critical role in global biogeochemical cycles and climate evolution. The reactivity of these materials is also important to numerous engineering applications including nuclear waste disposal. The dissolution process has long been considered to be controlled by a leached surface layer in which cations in the silicate framework are gradually leached out and replaced by protons from the solution. This view has recently been challenged by observations of extremely sharp corrosion fronts and oscillatory zonings in altered rims of the materials, suggesting that corrosion of these materials may proceed directly through congruentmore » dissolution followed by secondary mineral precipitation. Here we show that complex silicate material dissolution behaviors can emerge from a simple positive feedback between dissolution-induced cation release and cation-enhanced dissolution kinetics. This self-accelerating mechanism enables a systematic prediction of the occurrence of sharp dissolution fronts (vs. leached surface layers), oscillatory dissolution behaviors and multiple stages of glass dissolution (in particular the alteration resumption at a late stage of a corrosion process). In conclusion, our work provides a new perspective for predicting long-term silicate weathering rates in actual geochemical systems and developing durable silicate materials for various engineering applications.« less

Self-affinity in the dengue fever time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azevedo, S. M.; Saba, H.; Miranda, J. G. V.; Filho, A. S. Nascimento; Moret, M. A.

2016-06-01

Dengue is a complex public health problem that is common in tropical and subtropical regions. This disease has risen substantially in the last three decades, and the physical symptoms depict the self-affine behavior of the occurrences of reported dengue cases in Bahia, Brazil. This study uses detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to verify the scale behavior in a time series of dengue cases and to evaluate the long-range correlations that are characterized by the power law α exponent for different cities in Bahia, Brazil. The scaling exponent (α) presents different long-range correlations, i.e. uncorrelated, anti-persistent, persistent and diffusive behaviors. The long-range correlations highlight the complex behavior of the time series of this disease. The findings show that there are two distinct types of scale behavior. In the first behavior, the time series presents a persistent α exponent for a one-month period. For large periods, the time series signal approaches subdiffusive behavior. The hypothesis of the long-range correlations in the time series of the occurrences of reported dengue cases was validated. The observed self-affinity is useful as a forecasting tool for future periods through extrapolation of the α exponent behavior. This complex system has a higher predictability in a relatively short time (approximately one month), and it suggests a new tool in epidemiological control strategies. However, predictions for large periods using DFA are hidden by the subdiffusive behavior.

Psychosocial issues in long-term space flight: overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palinkas, L. A.

2001-01-01

Anecdotal evidence of the individual and interpersonal problems that occurred during the Shuttle-Mir Space Program (SMSP) and other long-duration Russian/Soviet missions, and studies of personnel in other isolated and confined extreme (ICE) environments suggest that psychosocial elements of behavior and performance are likely to have a significant impact on the outcome of long-duration missions in space. This impact may range from individual decrements in performance, health and well being, to catastrophic mission failure. This paper reviews our current understanding of the psychosocial issues related to long duration space missions according to three different domains of behavior: the individual domain, the interpersonal domain and the organizational domain. Individual issues include: personality characteristics that predict successful performance, stress due to isolation and confinement and its effect on emotions and cognitive performance, adaptive and maladaptive coping styles and strategies, and requirements for the psychological support of astronauts and their families during the mission. Interpersonal issues include: impact of crew diversity and leadership styles on small group dynamics, adaptive and maladaptive features of ground-crew interactions, and processes of crew cohesion, tension and conflict. Organizational issues include: the influence of organizational culture and mission duration on individual and group performance, and managerial requirements for long duration missions. Improved screening and selection of astronaut candidates, leadership, coping and interpersonal skills training of personnel, and organizational change are key elements in the prevention of performance decrements on long-duration missions.

An Account of Performance in Accessing Information Stored in Long-Term Memory. A Fixed-Links Model Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Altmeyer, Michael; Schweizer, Karl; Reiss, Siegbert; Ren, Xuezhu; Schreiner, Michael

2013-01-01

Performance in working memory and short-term memory tasks was employed for predicting performance in a long-term memory task in order to find out about the underlying processes. The types of memory were represented by versions of the Posner Task, the Backward Counting Task and the Sternberg Task serving as measures of long-term memory, working…

The role of young adult social bonds, substance problems, and sexual risk in pathways between adolescent substance use and midlife risky sexual behavior among urban African Americans.

PubMed

Zebrak, Katarzyna A; Green, Kerry M

2017-11-01

African Americans are disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted infections relative to other racial groups. Although substance use has been linked to risky sexual behavior, the understanding of how these associations develop over the life course remains limited, particularly the role of social bonds. This study uses structural equation modeling to examine pathways from adolescent substance use to young adult sexual risk, substance problems, and social bonds and then to midlife risky sexual behavior among African American men and women, controlling for childhood confounders. Data come from 4 assessments, 1 per developmental period, of a community-based urban African American cohort (N = 1,242) followed prospectively from ages 6 to 42 years. We found that greater adolescent substance use predicts greater young adult substance problems and increased risky sexual behavior, both of which in turn predict greater midlife sexual risk. Although greater adolescent substance use predicts fewer young adult social bonds for both genders, less young adult social bonding is unexpectedly associated with decreased midlife risky sexual behavior among women and not related for men. Substance use interventions among urban African American adolescents may have both immediate and long-term effects on decreasing sexual risk behaviors. Given the association between young adult social bonding and midlife risky sex among females, number of social bonds should not be used as a criterion for determining whom to screen for sexual risk among African American women. Future studies should explore other aspects of social bonding in linking substance use and risky sexual behavior over time. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Biodiesel: Characterization by DSC and P-DSC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiriac, Rodica; Toche, François; Brylinski, Christian

Thermal analytical methods such as differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) have been successfully applied to neat petrodiesel and engine oils in the last 25 years. This chapter shows how DSC and P-DSC (pressurized DSC) techniques can be used to compare, characterize, and predict some properties of alternative non-petroleum fuels, such as cold flow behavior and oxidative stability. These two properties are extremely important with respect to the operability, transport, and long-term storage of biodiesel fuel. It is shown that the quantity of unsaturated fatty acids in the fuel composition has an important impact on both properties. In addition, it is shown that the impact of fuel additives on the oxidative stability or the cold flow behavior of biodiesel can be studied by means of DSC and P-DSC techniques. Thermomicroscopy can also be used to study the cold flow behavior of biodiesel, giving information on the size and the morphology of crystals formed at low temperature.

Treatment preference in hypochondriasis.

PubMed

Walker, J; Vincent, N; Furer, P; Cox, B; Kjernisted, K

1999-12-01

Promising cognitive-behavioral and medication treatments for hypochondriasis are in the early stages of evaluation. Little is known about the treatment preferences and opinions of individuals seeking help for this problem. In this exploratory study, 23 volunteers from the community with a DSM-IV diagnosis of hypochondriasis were recruited through a newspaper advertisement. Participants were presented with a survey which included balanced descriptions of both a medication and a cognitive-behavioral treatment for intense illness concerns (hypochondriasis). The brief descriptions of the treatments discussed the time commitment required as well as the major advantages and disadvantages of each. Results showed that, relative to medication treatment, cognitive-behavioral treatment was predicted to be more effective in both the short and long terms and was rated as more acceptable. Psychological treatment was indicated as the first choice by 74% of respondents, medication by 4%, and 22% indicated an equal preference. Forty-eight percent of respondents would only accept the psychological treatment.

Visibility Graph Based Time Series Analysis

PubMed Central

Stephen, Mutua; Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie

2015-01-01

Network based time series analysis has made considerable achievements in the recent years. By mapping mono/multivariate time series into networks, one can investigate both it’s microscopic and macroscopic behaviors. However, most proposed approaches lead to the construction of static networks consequently providing limited information on evolutionary behaviors. In the present paper we propose a method called visibility graph based time series analysis, in which series segments are mapped to visibility graphs as being descriptions of the corresponding states and the successively occurring states are linked. This procedure converts a time series to a temporal network and at the same time a network of networks. Findings from empirical records for stock markets in USA (S&P500 and Nasdaq) and artificial series generated by means of fractional Gaussian motions show that the method can provide us rich information benefiting short-term and long-term predictions. Theoretically, we propose a method to investigate time series from the viewpoint of network of networks. PMID:26571115

Modeling forest biomass and growth: Coupling long-term inventory and LiDAR data

Treesearch

Chad Babcock; Andrew O. Finley; Bruce D. Cook; Aaron Weiskittel; Christopher W. Woodall

2016-01-01

Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB...

Uniaxial creep property and viscoelastic-plastic modelling of ethylene tetrafluoroethylene (ETFE) foil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yintang; Wu, Minger

2015-02-01

Ethylene tetrafluoroethylene (ETFE) foil has been widely used in spatial structures for its light weight and high transparency. This paper studies short- and long-term creep properties of ETFE foil. Two series of short-term creep and recovery tests were performed, in which residual strain was observed. A long-term creep test of ETFE foil was also conducted and lasted about 400 days. A viscoelastic-plastic model was then established to describe short-term creep and recovery behaviour of ETFE foil. This model contains a traditional generalised Kelvin part and an added steady-flow component to represent viscoelastic and viscoplastic behaviour, respectively. The model can fit tests' data well at three stresses and six temperatures. Additionally, time-temperature superposition was adopted to simulate long-term creep behaviour of ETFE foil. Horizontal shifting factors were determined by W.L.F. equation in which transition temperature was simulated by shifting factors. Using this equation, long-term creep behaviours at three temperatures were predicted. The results of the long-term creep test showed that a short-term creep test at identical temperatures was insufficient to predict additional creep behaviour, and the long-term creep test verified horizontal shifting factors which were derived from the time-temperature superposition.

Entangled time in flocking: Multi-time-scale interaction reveals emergence of inherent noise

PubMed Central

Murakami, Hisashi

2018-01-01

Collective behaviors that seem highly ordered and result in collective alignment, such as schooling by fish and flocking by birds, arise from seamless shuffling (such as super-diffusion) and bustling inside groups (such as Lévy walks). However, such noisy behavior inside groups appears to preclude the collective behavior: intuitively, we expect that noisy behavior would lead to the group being destabilized and broken into small sub groups, and high alignment seems to preclude shuffling of neighbors. Although statistical modeling approaches with extrinsic noise, such as the maximum entropy approach, have provided some reasonable descriptions, they ignore the cognitive perspective of the individuals. In this paper, we try to explain how the group tendency, that is, high alignment, and highly noisy individual behavior can coexist in a single framework. The key aspect of our approach is multi-time-scale interaction emerging from the existence of an interaction radius that reflects short-term and long-term predictions. This multi-time-scale interaction is a natural extension of the attraction and alignment concept in many flocking models. When we apply this method in a two-dimensional model, various flocking behaviors, such as swarming, milling, and schooling, emerge. The approach also explains the appearance of super-diffusion, the Lévy walk in groups, and local equilibria. At the end of this paper, we discuss future developments, including extending our model to three dimensions. PMID:29689074

Mediation and Moderation of Divorce Effects on Children’s Behavior Problems

PubMed Central

Weaver, Jennifer; Schofield, Thomas

2016-01-01

Using data from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, we examined children’s internalizing and externalizing behavior problems from age 5 to age 15 in relation to whether they had experienced a parental divorce. Children from divorced families had more behavior problems compared with a propensity score-matched sample of children from intact families according to both teachers and mothers. They exhibited more internalizing and externalizing problems at the first assessment after the parents’ separation and at the last available assessment (age 11 for teacher reports, or age 15 for mother reports). Divorce also predicted both short-term and long-term rank-order increases in behavior problems. Associations between divorce and child behavior problems were moderated by family income (assessed before the divorce) such that children from families with higher incomes prior to the separation had fewer internalizing problems than children from families with lower incomes prior to the separation. Higher levels of pre-divorce maternal sensitivity and child IQ also functioned as protective factors for children of divorce. Mediation analyses showed that children were more likely to exhibit behavior problems after the divorce if their post-divorce home environment was less supportive and stimulating, their mother was less sensitive and more depressed, and their household income was lower. We discuss avenues for intervention, particularly efforts to improve the quality of home environments in divorced families. PMID:25419913

The Influence of Differential "Power" and "Solidarity" upon the Predictability of Behavior: A Peruvian Example

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moles, Jerry A.

1978-01-01

The usage of Spanish address terms is investigated to explore the predictability and variability in the behavior of non-Indians and Quechua Indians in Peru. The behavior variations are related to differential "power" and "solidarity" between the two ethnic groups and differential "solidarity" within the Quecha group.…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mcwilliams, A. J.; Daugherty, W. L.; Skidmore, T. E.

The 9975 Type B shipping package is used within the DOE complex for shipping special nuclear materials. This package is re-certified annually in accordance with Safety Analysis Report for Packaging (SARP) requirements. The package is also used at the Savannah River Site as part of the long-term storage configuration of special nuclear materials. As such, the packages do not undergo annual recertification during storage, with uncertainty as to how long some of the package components will meet their functional requirements in the storage environment. The packages are currently approved for up to 15 years storage, and work continues to providemore » a technical basis to extend that period. This report describes efforts by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) to extend the service life estimate of Viton® GLT and GLT-S fluoroelastomer O-rings used in the 9975 shipping package. O-rings of both GLT and GLT-S compositions are undergoing accelerated aging at elevated temperature, and are periodically tested for compression stress relaxation (CSR) behavior. The CSR behavior of O-rings was evaluated at temperatures from 175 to 400 °F. These collective data were used to develop predictive models for extrapolation of CSR behavior to relevant service temperatures (< 156 °F). The predictive model developed from the CSR data conservatively indicates a service life of approximately 37 years for Viton GLT O-rings at the maximum effective service temperature of 156 °F. The estimated service life for Viton GLT-S O-rings is significantly longer.« less

Congress of Neurological Surgeons Systematic Review and Evidence-Based Guidelines on Intraoperative Cranial Nerve Monitoring in Vestibular Schwannoma Surgery.

PubMed

Vivas, Esther X; Carlson, Matthew L; Neff, Brian A; Shepard, Neil T; McCracken, D Jay; Sweeney, Alex D; Olson, Jeffrey J

2018-02-01

Does intraoperative facial nerve monitoring during vestibular schwannoma surgery lead to better long-term facial nerve function? This recommendation applies to adult patients undergoing vestibular schwannoma surgery regardless of tumor characteristics. Level 3: It is recommended that intraoperative facial nerve monitoring be routinely utilized during vestibular schwannoma surgery to improve long-term facial nerve function. Can intraoperative facial nerve monitoring be used to accurately predict favorable long-term facial nerve function after vestibular schwannoma surgery? This recommendation applies to adult patients undergoing vestibular schwannoma surgery. Level 3: Intraoperative facial nerve can be used to accurately predict favorable long-term facial nerve function after vestibular schwannoma surgery. Specifically, the presence of favorable testing reliably portends a good long-term facial nerve outcome. However, the absence of favorable testing in the setting of an anatomically intact facial nerve does not reliably predict poor long-term function and therefore cannot be used to direct decision-making regarding the need for early reinnervation procedures. Does an anatomically intact facial nerve with poor electromyogram (EMG) electrical responses during intraoperative testing reliably predict poor long-term facial nerve function? This recommendation applies to adult patients undergoing vestibular schwannoma surgery. Level 3: Poor intraoperative EMG electrical response of the facial nerve should not be used as a reliable predictor of poor long-term facial nerve function. Should intraoperative eighth cranial nerve monitoring be used during vestibular schwannoma surgery? This recommendation applies to adult patients undergoing vestibular schwannoma surgery with measurable preoperative hearing levels and tumors smaller than 1.5 cm. Level 3: Intraoperative eighth cranial nerve monitoring should be used during vestibular schwannoma surgery when hearing preservation is attempted. Is direct monitoring of the eighth cranial nerve superior to the use of far-field auditory brain stem responses? This recommendation applies to adult patients undergoing vestibular schwannoma surgery with measurable preoperative hearing levels and tumors smaller than 1.5 cm. Level 3: There is insufficient evidence to make a definitive recommendation.  The full guideline can be found at: https://www.cns.org/guidelines/guidelines-manage-ment-patients-vestibular-schwannoma/chapter_4. Copyright © 2017 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

Long-term bed degradation in Maryland streams (Phase III Part 2) : urban streams in the Piedmont Plateau Province : research report : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-02-01

Estimation of potential long-term down-cutting of the stream bed is necessary for evaluation and design of bridges for scour and culverts for fish passage. The purpose of this study has been to improve predictions of this potential long-term bed degr...

An expectancy-value theory approach to the long-term modification of smoking behavior.

PubMed

Rogers, R W; Deckner, C W; Mewborn, C R

1978-04-01

Despite the research interest in modifying smoking behavior, therapeutic treatments that can produce long-term cessation have not been demonstrated rigorously. A follow-up study of two attitude change experiments (N = 173) examined the effects of a fear appeal, that is, increasing smokers' awareness and appreciation of the highly noxious consequences of smoking. Although this familiar type of information may be an integral component of many smoking treatment programs, its long-term suppressive effect has not been demonstrated in well-controlled experiments. The results disclosed that 3 months and also 1 year after treatment, a high-fear manipulation had increased significantly the percentage of smokers who were able to stop smoking completely.

Synaptic Transmission Optimization Predicts Expression Loci of Long-Term Plasticity.

PubMed

Costa, Rui Ponte; Padamsey, Zahid; D'Amour, James A; Emptage, Nigel J; Froemke, Robert C; Vogels, Tim P

2017-09-27

Long-term modifications of neuronal connections are critical for reliable memory storage in the brain. However, their locus of expression-pre- or postsynaptic-is highly variable. Here we introduce a theoretical framework in which long-term plasticity performs an optimization of the postsynaptic response statistics toward a given mean with minimal variance. Consequently, the state of the synapse at the time of plasticity induction determines the ratio of pre- and postsynaptic modifications. Our theory explains the experimentally observed expression loci of the hippocampal and neocortical synaptic potentiation studies we examined. Moreover, the theory predicts presynaptic expression of long-term depression, consistent with experimental observations. At inhibitory synapses, the theory suggests a statistically efficient excitatory-inhibitory balance in which changes in inhibitory postsynaptic response statistics specifically target the mean excitation. Our results provide a unifying theory for understanding the expression mechanisms and functions of long-term synaptic transmission plasticity. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Descriptive, Multiyear Examination of Positive Behavior Support

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dunlap, Glen; Carr, Edward G.; Horner, Robert H.; Koegel, Robert L.; Sailor, Wayne; Clarke, Shelley; Koegel, Lynn Kern; Albin, Richard W.; Vaughn, Bobbie J.; McLaughlin, Darlene Magito; James, Kim Mullen; Todd, Anne W.; Newton, J. Stephen; Lucyshyn, Joseph; Griggs, Peter; Bohanon, Hank; Choi, Jeong Hoon; Vismara, Laurie; Minjarez, Mendy Boettcher; Buschbacher, Pamelazita; Fox, Lise

2010-01-01

A major goal of positive behavior support (PBS) is to produce broad-based, long-term improvements in adaptive behavior; however, the empirical base, at present, is mainly composed of relatively short-term studies carried out in circumscribed contexts. Therefore, a need exists for reliable data that can inform the field regarding the comprehensive…

Long-term memory deficits in Pavlovian fear conditioning in Ca2+/calmodulin kinase kinase alpha-deficient mice.

PubMed

Blaeser, Frank; Sanders, Matthew J; Truong, Nga; Ko, Shanelle; Wu, Long Jun; Wozniak, David F; Fanselow, Michael S; Zhuo, Min; Chatila, Talal A

2006-12-01

Signaling by the Ca(2+)/calmodulin kinase (CaMK) cascade has been implicated in neuronal gene transcription, synaptic plasticity, and long-term memory consolidation. The CaM kinase kinase alpha (CaMKKalpha) isoform is an upstream component of the CaMK cascade whose function in different behavioral and learning and memory paradigms was analyzed by targeted gene disruption in mice. CaMKKalpha mutants exhibited normal long-term spatial memory formation and cued fear conditioning but showed deficits in context fear during both conditioning and long-term follow-up testing. They also exhibited impaired activation of the downstream kinase CaMKIV/Gr and its substrate, the transcription factor cyclic AMP-responsive element binding protein (CREB) upon fear conditioning. Unlike CaMKIV/Gr-deficient mice, the CaMKKalpha mutants exhibited normal long-term potentiation and normal levels of anxiety-like behavior. These results demonstrate a selective role for CaMKKalpha in contextual fear memory and suggest that different combinations of upstream and downstream components of the CaMK cascade may serve distinct physiological functions.

Does improvement in self-management skills predict improvement in quality of life and depressive symptoms? A prospective study in patients with heart failure up to one year after self-management education.

PubMed

Musekamp, Gunda; Schuler, Michael; Seekatz, Bettina; Bengel, Jürgen; Faller, Hermann; Meng, Karin

2017-02-15

Heart failure (HF) patient education aims to foster patients' self-management skills. These are assumed to bring about, in turn, improvements in distal outcomes such as quality of life. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that change in self-reported self-management skills observed after participation in self-management education predicts changes in physical and mental quality of life and depressive symptoms up to one year thereafter. The sample comprised 342 patients with chronic heart failure, treated in inpatient rehabilitation clinics, who received a heart failure self-management education program. Latent change modelling was used to analyze relationships between both short-term (during inpatient rehabilitation) and intermediate-term (after six months) changes in self-reported self-management skills and both intermediate-term and long-term (after twelve months) changes in physical and mental quality of life and depressive symptoms. Short-term changes in self-reported self-management skills predicted intermediate-term changes in mental quality of life and long-term changes in physical quality of life. Intermediate-term changes in self-reported self-management skills predicted long-term changes in all outcomes. These findings support the assumption that improvements in self-management skills may foster improvements in distal outcomes.

Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

PubMed

Kanamori, H

1996-04-30

For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding.

Chaotic behavior in Casimir oscillators: A case study for phase-change materials.

PubMed

Tajik, Fatemeh; Sedighi, Mehdi; Khorrami, Mohammad; Masoudi, Amir Ali; Palasantzas, George

2017-10-01

Casimir forces between material surfaces at close proximity of less than 200 nm can lead to increased chaotic behavior of actuating devices depending on the strength of the Casimir interaction. We investigate these phenomena for phase-change materials in torsional oscillators, where the amorphous to crystalline phase transitions lead to transitions between high and low Casimir force and torque states, respectively, without material compositions. For a conservative system bifurcation curve and Poincare maps analysis show the absence of chaotic behavior but with the crystalline phase (high force-torque state) favoring more unstable behavior and stiction. However, for a nonconservative system chaotic behavior can take place introducing significant risk for stiction, which is again more pronounced for the crystalline phase. The latter illustrates the more general scenario that stronger Casimir forces and torques increase the possibility for chaotic behavior. The latter is making it impossible to predict whether stiction or stable actuation will occur on a long-term basis, and it is setting limitations in the design of micronano devices operating at short-range nanoscale separations.

Predicting long-term performance of engineered geologic carbon dioxide storage systems to inform decisions amidst uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawar, R.

2016-12-01

Risk assessment and risk management of engineered geologic CO2 storage systems is an area of active investigation. The potential geologic CO2 storage systems currently under consideration are inherently heterogeneous and have limited to no characterization data. Effective risk management decisions to ensure safe, long-term CO2 storage requires assessing and quantifying risks while taking into account the uncertainties in a storage site's characteristics. The key decisions are typically related to definition of area of review, effective monitoring strategy and monitoring duration, potential of leakage and associated impacts, etc. A quantitative methodology for predicting a sequestration site's long-term performance is critical for making key decisions necessary for successful deployment of commercial scale geologic storage projects where projects will require quantitative assessments of potential long-term liabilities. An integrated assessment modeling (IAM) paradigm which treats a geologic CO2 storage site as a system made up of various linked subsystems can be used to predict long-term performance. The subsystems include storage reservoir, seals, potential leakage pathways (such as wellbores, natural fractures/faults) and receptors (such as shallow groundwater aquifers). CO2 movement within each of the subsystems and resulting interactions are captured through reduced order models (ROMs). The ROMs capture the complex physical/chemical interactions resulting due to CO2 movement and interactions but are computationally extremely efficient. The computational efficiency allows for performing Monte Carlo simulations necessary for quantitative probabilistic risk assessment. We have used the IAM to predict long-term performance of geologic CO2 sequestration systems and to answer questions related to probability of leakage of CO2 through wellbores, impact of CO2/brine leakage into shallow aquifer, etc. Answers to such questions are critical in making key risk management decisions. A systematic uncertainty quantification approach can been used to understand how uncertain parameters associated with different subsystems (e.g., reservoir permeability, wellbore cement permeability, wellbore density, etc.) impact the overall site performance predictions.

Reliability of Long-Term Wave Conditions Predicted with Data Sets of Short Duration

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-03-01

the validity and reliability of predicted probable wave heights obtained from data of limited duration. BACKGROUND: The basic steps listed by...interest to perform the analysis outlined in steps 2 to 5, the prediction would only be reliable for up to a 3year return period. For a 5-year data set...for long-term hindcast data . The data retrieval and analysis program known as the Sea State Engineering Analysis System (SEAS) makes handling of the

The nature of earthquake prediction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindh, A.G.

1991-01-01

Earthquake prediction is inherently statistical. Although some people continue to think of earthquake prediction as the specification of the time, place, and magnitude of a future earthquake, it has been clear for at least a decade that this is an unrealistic and unreasonable definition. the reality is that earthquake prediction starts from the long-term forecasts of place and magnitude, with very approximate time constraints, and progresses, at least in principle, to a gradual narrowing of the time window as data and understanding permit. Primitive long-term forecasts are clearly possible at this time on a few well-characterized fault systems. Tightly focuses monitoring experiments aimed at short-term prediction are already underway in Parkfield, California, and in the Tokai region in Japan; only time will tell how much progress will be possible. 

Comparative study on short- and long-term behavioral consequences of organophosphate exposure: relationship to AChE mRNA expression.

PubMed

López-Granero, Caridad; Cardona, Diana; Giménez, Estela; Lozano, Rafael; Barril, José; Aschner, Michael; Sánchez-Santed, Fernando; Cañadas, Fernando

2014-01-01

Organophosphates (OPs) affect behavior by inhibiting acetylcholinesterase (AChE). While the cognitive short-term effects may be directly attributed to this inhibition, the mechanisms that underlie OP's long-term cognitive effects remain controversial and poorly understood. Accordingly, two experiments were designed to assess the effects of OPs on cognition, and to ascertain whether both the short- and long-term effects of are AChE-dependent. A single subcutaneous dose of 250 mg/kg chlorpyrifos (CPF), 1.5mg/kg diisopropylphosphorofluoridate (DFP) or 15 mg/kg parathion (PTN) was administered to male Wistar rats. Spatial learning was evaluated 72 h or 23 weeks after exposure, and impulsive choice was tested at 10 and 30 weeks following OPs administration (experiment 1 and 2, respectively). Brain soluble and membrane-bound AChE activity, synaptic AChE-S mRNA, read-through AChE-R mRNA and brain acylpeptide hydrolase (APH) activity (as alternative non-cholinergic target) were analyzed upon completion of the behavioral testing (17 and 37 weeks after OPs exposure). Both short- and long-term CPF treatment caused statistically significant effects on spatial learning, while PTN treatment led only to statistically significant short-term effects. Neither CPF, DFP nor PTN affected the long-term impulsivity response. Long-term exposure to CPF and DFP significantly decreased AChE-S and AChE-R mRNA, while in the PTN treated group only AChE-S mRNA levels were decreased. However, after long-term OP exposure, soluble and membrane-bound AChE activity was indistinguishable from controls. Finally, no changes were noted in brain APH activity in response to OP treatment. Taken together, this study demonstrates long-term effects of OPs on AChE-S and AChE-R mRNA in the absence of changes in AChE soluble and membrane-bound activity. Thus, changes in AChE mRNA expression imply non-catalytic properties of the AChE enzyme. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

FORMULATION AND STABILITY EVALUATION OF BAUHINIA VARIEGATA EXTRACT TOPICAL EMULSION.

PubMed

Mohsin, Sabeeh; Akhtar, Naveed

2017-05-01

This study presents the results for the development of water in oil (W/O) emulsion containing 2 % Bauhinia variegata (BV) extract with good antioxidant potential for cosmetic application. Different ratios of surfactant, oil and water were investigated to optimize the ratio of ingredients. It was found that emulsifier and oil4ratio were important in improving the stability of emulsion. The formulation having 2.5% Abil EM90, 12% liquid paraffin, 83.5% distilled water and 2% BV extract was found to be most stable. Stability of the formulation was further evaluated by characterizing for organoleptic, sedimentation, microscopic and rheological properties at a range of storage conditions for a period of 12 weeks. Experimental findings showed stable formulation behavior with respect to color change, liquefaction and phase separation. Centrifugation test was carried out to predict the long term stability..The rheological parameters were evaluated from Power Law and the flow index value less than 1 suggested non-Newtonian behavior of the W/O emulsion. The mean droplet size of the internal phase of freshly prepared formulation was 4.06 ? 1.99 pm that did not change significantly (p > 0.05) during the storage. The newly developed formulation exhibited promising attributes over long term storage and open opportunities for the topical delivery of natural antioxidants for cosmetic and pharmaceutical objectives.

Mice heterozygous for an inactivated allele of the schizophrenia associated Brd1 gene display selective cognitive deficits with translational relevance to schizophrenia.

PubMed

Qvist, Per; Rajkumar, Anto P; Redrobe, John P; Nyegaard, Mette; Christensen, Jane H; Mors, Ole; Wegener, Gregers; Didriksen, Michael; Børglum, Anders D

2017-05-01

Schizophrenia is a debilitating brain disorder characterized by disturbances of emotion, perception and cognition. Cognitive impairments predict functional outcome in schizophrenia and are detectable even in the prodromal stage of the disorder. However, our understanding of the underlying neurobiology is limited and procognitive treatments remain elusive. We recently demonstrated that mice heterozygous for an inactivated allele of the schizophrenia-associated Brd1 gene (Brd1 +/ - mice) display behaviors reminiscent of schizophrenia, including impaired social cognition and long-term memory. Here, we further characterize performance of these mice by following the preclinical guidelines recommended by the 'Measurement and Treatment Research to Improve Cognition in Schizophrenia (MATRICS)' and 'Cognitive Neuroscience Treatment Research to Improve Cognition in Schizophrenia (CNTRICS)' initiatives to maximize translational value. Brd1 +/- mice exhibit relational encoding deficits, compromised working and long term memory, as well as impaired executive cognitive functioning with cognitive behaviors relying on medial prefrontal cortex being particularly affected. Akin to patients with schizophrenia, the cognitive deficits displayed by Brd1 +/ - mice are not global, but selective. Our results underline the value of Brd1 +/ - mice as a promising tool for studying the neurobiology of cognitive deficits in schizophrenia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.