Modeling and control of magnetorheological fluid dampers using neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D. H.; Liao, W. H.

2005-02-01

Due to the inherent nonlinear nature of magnetorheological (MR) fluid dampers, one of the challenging aspects for utilizing these devices to achieve high system performance is the development of accurate models and control algorithms that can take advantage of their unique characteristics. In this paper, the direct identification and inverse dynamic modeling for MR fluid dampers using feedforward and recurrent neural networks are studied. The trained direct identification neural network model can be used to predict the damping force of the MR fluid damper on line, on the basis of the dynamic responses across the MR fluid damper and the command voltage, and the inverse dynamic neural network model can be used to generate the command voltage according to the desired damping force through supervised learning. The architectures and the learning methods of the dynamic neural network models and inverse neural network models for MR fluid dampers are presented, and some simulation results are discussed. Finally, the trained neural network models are applied to predict and control the damping force of the MR fluid damper. Moreover, validation methods for the neural network models developed are proposed and used to evaluate their performance. Validation results with different data sets indicate that the proposed direct identification dynamic model using the recurrent neural network can be used to predict the damping force accurately and the inverse identification dynamic model using the recurrent neural network can act as a damper controller to generate the command voltage when the MR fluid damper is used in a semi-active mode.

Collective relaxation dynamics of small-world networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabow, Carsten; Grosskinsky, Stefan; Kurths, Jürgen; Timme, Marc

2015-05-01

Complex networks exhibit a wide range of collective dynamic phenomena, including synchronization, diffusion, relaxation, and coordination processes. Their asymptotic dynamics is generically characterized by the local Jacobian, graph Laplacian, or a similar linear operator. The structure of networks with regular, small-world, and random connectivities are reasonably well understood, but their collective dynamical properties remain largely unknown. Here we present a two-stage mean-field theory to derive analytic expressions for network spectra. A single formula covers the spectrum from regular via small-world to strongly randomized topologies in Watts-Strogatz networks, explaining the simultaneous dependencies on network size N , average degree k , and topological randomness q . We present simplified analytic predictions for the second-largest and smallest eigenvalue, and numerical checks confirm our theoretical predictions for zero, small, and moderate topological randomness q , including the entire small-world regime. For large q of the order of one, we apply standard random matrix theory, thereby overarching the full range from regular to randomized network topologies. These results may contribute to our analytic and mechanistic understanding of collective relaxation phenomena of network dynamical systems.

Collective relaxation dynamics of small-world networks.

PubMed

Grabow, Carsten; Grosskinsky, Stefan; Kurths, Jürgen; Timme, Marc

2015-05-01

Complex networks exhibit a wide range of collective dynamic phenomena, including synchronization, diffusion, relaxation, and coordination processes. Their asymptotic dynamics is generically characterized by the local Jacobian, graph Laplacian, or a similar linear operator. The structure of networks with regular, small-world, and random connectivities are reasonably well understood, but their collective dynamical properties remain largely unknown. Here we present a two-stage mean-field theory to derive analytic expressions for network spectra. A single formula covers the spectrum from regular via small-world to strongly randomized topologies in Watts-Strogatz networks, explaining the simultaneous dependencies on network size N, average degree k, and topological randomness q. We present simplified analytic predictions for the second-largest and smallest eigenvalue, and numerical checks confirm our theoretical predictions for zero, small, and moderate topological randomness q, including the entire small-world regime. For large q of the order of one, we apply standard random matrix theory, thereby overarching the full range from regular to randomized network topologies. These results may contribute to our analytic and mechanistic understanding of collective relaxation phenomena of network dynamical systems.

Structure-based control of complex networks with nonlinear dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanudo, Jorge G. T.; Yang, Gang; Albert, Reka

What can we learn about controlling a system solely from its underlying network structure? Here we use a framework for control of networks governed by a broad class of nonlinear dynamics that includes the major dynamic models of biological, technological, and social processes. This feedback-based framework provides realizable node overrides that steer a system towards any of its natural long term dynamic behaviors, regardless of the dynamic details and system parameters. We use this framework on several real networks, identify the topological characteristics that underlie the predicted node overrides, and compare its predictions to those of classical structural control theory. Finally, we demonstrate this framework's applicability in dynamic models of gene regulatory networks and identify nodes whose override is necessary for control in the general case, but not in specific model instances. This work was supported by NSF Grants PHY 1205840 and IIS 1160995. JGTZ is a recipient of a Stand Up To Cancer - The V Foundation Convergence Scholar Award.

Why do Reservoir Computing Networks Predict Chaotic Systems so Well?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Zhixin; Pathak, Jaideep; Girvan, Michelle; Hunt, Brian; Ott, Edward

Recently a new type of artificial neural network, which is called a reservoir computing network (RCN), has been employed to predict the evolution of chaotic dynamical systems from measured data and without a priori knowledge of the governing equations of the system. The quality of these predictions has been found to be spectacularly good. Here, we present a dynamical-system-based theory for how RCN works. Basically a RCN is thought of as consisting of three parts, a randomly chosen input layer, a randomly chosen recurrent network (the reservoir), and an output layer. The advantage of the RCN framework is that training is done only on the linear output layer, making it computationally feasible for the reservoir dimensionality to be large. In this presentation, we address the underlying dynamical mechanisms of RCN function by employing the concepts of generalized synchronization and conditional Lyapunov exponents. Using this framework, we propose conditions on reservoir dynamics necessary for good prediction performance. By looking at the RCN from this dynamical systems point of view, we gain a deeper understanding of its surprising computational power, as well as insights on how to design a RCN. Supported by Army Research Office Grant Number W911NF1210101.

Network cosmology.

PubMed

Krioukov, Dmitri; Kitsak, Maksim; Sinkovits, Robert S; Rideout, David; Meyer, David; Boguñá, Marián

2012-01-01

Prediction and control of the dynamics of complex networks is a central problem in network science. Structural and dynamical similarities of different real networks suggest that some universal laws might accurately describe the dynamics of these networks, albeit the nature and common origin of such laws remain elusive. Here we show that the causal network representing the large-scale structure of spacetime in our accelerating universe is a power-law graph with strong clustering, similar to many complex networks such as the Internet, social, or biological networks. We prove that this structural similarity is a consequence of the asymptotic equivalence between the large-scale growth dynamics of complex networks and causal networks. This equivalence suggests that unexpectedly similar laws govern the dynamics of complex networks and spacetime in the universe, with implications to network science and cosmology.

Network Cosmology

PubMed Central

Krioukov, Dmitri; Kitsak, Maksim; Sinkovits, Robert S.; Rideout, David; Meyer, David; Boguñá, Marián

2012-01-01

Prediction and control of the dynamics of complex networks is a central problem in network science. Structural and dynamical similarities of different real networks suggest that some universal laws might accurately describe the dynamics of these networks, albeit the nature and common origin of such laws remain elusive. Here we show that the causal network representing the large-scale structure of spacetime in our accelerating universe is a power-law graph with strong clustering, similar to many complex networks such as the Internet, social, or biological networks. We prove that this structural similarity is a consequence of the asymptotic equivalence between the large-scale growth dynamics of complex networks and causal networks. This equivalence suggests that unexpectedly similar laws govern the dynamics of complex networks and spacetime in the universe, with implications to network science and cosmology. PMID:23162688

Flory-Stockmayer analysis on reprocessable polymer networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lingqiao; Chen, Xi; Jin, Kailong; Torkelson, John

Reprocessable polymer networks can undergo structure rearrangement through dynamic chemistries under proper conditions, making them a promising candidate for recyclable crosslinked materials, e.g. tires. This research field has been focusing on various chemistries. However, there has been lacking of an essential physical theory explaining the relationship between abundancy of dynamic linkages and reprocessability. Based on the classical Flory-Stockmayer analysis on network gelation, we developed a similar analysis on reprocessable polymer networks to quantitatively predict the critical condition for reprocessability. Our theory indicates that it is unnecessary for all bonds to be dynamic to make the resulting network reprocessable. As long as there is no percolated permanent network in the system, the material can fully rearrange. To experimentally validate our theory, we used a thiol-epoxy network model system with various dynamic linkage compositions. The stress relaxation behavior of resulting materials supports our theoretical prediction: only 50 % of linkages between crosslinks need to be dynamic for a tri-arm network to be reprocessable. Therefore, this analysis provides the first fundamental theoretical platform for designing and evaluating reprocessable polymer networks. We thank McCormick Research Catalyst Award Fund and ISEN cluster fellowship (L. L.) for funding support.

Complete characterization of the stability of cluster synchronization in complex dynamical networks.

PubMed

Sorrentino, Francesco; Pecora, Louis M; Hagerstrom, Aaron M; Murphy, Thomas E; Roy, Rajarshi

2016-04-01

Synchronization is an important and prevalent phenomenon in natural and engineered systems. In many dynamical networks, the coupling is balanced or adjusted to admit global synchronization, a condition called Laplacian coupling. Many networks exhibit incomplete synchronization, where two or more clusters of synchronization persist, and computational group theory has recently proved to be valuable in discovering these cluster states based on the topology of the network. In the important case of Laplacian coupling, additional synchronization patterns can exist that would not be predicted from the group theory analysis alone. Understanding how and when clusters form, merge, and persist is essential for understanding collective dynamics, synchronization, and failure mechanisms of complex networks such as electric power grids, distributed control networks, and autonomous swarming vehicles. We describe a method to find and analyze all of the possible cluster synchronization patterns in a Laplacian-coupled network, by applying methods of computational group theory to dynamically equivalent networks. We present a general technique to evaluate the stability of each of the dynamically valid cluster synchronization patterns. Our results are validated in an optoelectronic experiment on a five-node network that confirms the synchronization patterns predicted by the theory.

Predicting the Lifetime of Dynamic Networks Experiencing Persistent Random Attacks.

PubMed

Podobnik, Boris; Lipic, Tomislav; Horvatic, Davor; Majdandzic, Antonio; Bishop, Steven R; Eugene Stanley, H

2015-09-21

Estimating the critical points at which complex systems abruptly flip from one state to another is one of the remaining challenges in network science. Due to lack of knowledge about the underlying stochastic processes controlling critical transitions, it is widely considered difficult to determine the location of critical points for real-world networks, and it is even more difficult to predict the time at which these potentially catastrophic failures occur. We analyse a class of decaying dynamic networks experiencing persistent failures in which the magnitude of the overall failure is quantified by the probability that a potentially permanent internal failure will occur. When the fraction of active neighbours is reduced to a critical threshold, cascading failures can trigger a total network failure. For this class of network we find that the time to network failure, which is equivalent to network lifetime, is inversely dependent upon the magnitude of the failure and logarithmically dependent on the threshold. We analyse how permanent failures affect network robustness using network lifetime as a measure. These findings provide new methodological insight into system dynamics and, in particular, of the dynamic processes of networks. We illustrate the network model by selected examples from biology, and social science.

Complexities’ day-to-day dynamic evolution analysis and prediction for a Didi taxi trip network based on complex network theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lin; Lu, Jian; Zhou, Jialin; Zhu, Jinqing; Li, Yunxuan; Wan, Qian

2018-03-01

Didi Dache is the most popular taxi order mobile app in China, which provides online taxi-hailing service. The obtained big database from this app could be used to analyze the complexities’ day-to-day dynamic evolution of Didi taxi trip network (DTTN) from the level of complex network dynamics. First, this paper proposes the data cleaning and modeling methods for expressing Nanjing’s DTTN as a complex network. Second, the three consecutive weeks’ data are cleaned to establish 21 DTTNs based on the proposed big data processing technology. Then, multiple topology measures that characterize the complexities’ day-to-day dynamic evolution of these networks are provided. Third, these measures of 21 DTTNs are calculated and subsequently explained with actual implications. They are used as a training set for modeling the BP neural network which is designed for predicting DTTN complexities evolution. Finally, the reliability of the designed BP neural network is verified by comparing with the actual data and the results obtained from ARIMA method simultaneously. Because network complexities are the basis for modeling cascading failures and conducting link prediction in complex system, this proposed research framework not only provides a novel perspective for analyzing DTTN from the level of system aggregated behavior, but can also be used to improve the DTTN management level.

Dynamics of Opinion Forming in Structurally Balanced Social Networks

PubMed Central

Altafini, Claudio

2012-01-01

A structurally balanced social network is a social community that splits into two antagonistic factions (typical example being a two-party political system). The process of opinion forming on such a community is most often highly predictable, with polarized opinions reflecting the bipartition of the network. The aim of this paper is to suggest a class of dynamical systems, called monotone systems, as natural models for the dynamics of opinion forming on structurally balanced social networks. The high predictability of the outcome of a decision process is explained in terms of the order-preserving character of the solutions of this class of dynamical systems. If we represent a social network as a signed graph in which individuals are the nodes and the signs of the edges represent friendly or hostile relationships, then the property of structural balance corresponds to the social community being splittable into two antagonistic factions, each containing only friends. PMID:22761667

An integrated approach to infer dynamic protein-gene interactions - A case study of the human P53 protein.

PubMed

Wang, Junbai; Wu, Qianqian; Hu, Xiaohua Tony; Tian, Tianhai

2016-11-01

Investigating the dynamics of genetic regulatory networks through high throughput experimental data, such as microarray gene expression profiles, is a very important but challenging task. One of the major hindrances in building detailed mathematical models for genetic regulation is the large number of unknown model parameters. To tackle this challenge, a new integrated method is proposed by combining a top-down approach and a bottom-up approach. First, the top-down approach uses probabilistic graphical models to predict the network structure of DNA repair pathway that is regulated by the p53 protein. Two networks are predicted, namely a network of eight genes with eight inferred interactions and an extended network of 21 genes with 17 interactions. Then, the bottom-up approach using differential equation models is developed to study the detailed genetic regulations based on either a fully connected regulatory network or a gene network obtained by the top-down approach. Model simulation error, parameter identifiability and robustness property are used as criteria to select the optimal network. Simulation results together with permutation tests of input gene network structures indicate that the prediction accuracy and robustness property of the two predicted networks using the top-down approach are better than those of the corresponding fully connected networks. In particular, the proposed approach reduces computational cost significantly for inferring model parameters. Overall, the new integrated method is a promising approach for investigating the dynamics of genetic regulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Asymptotic theory of time-varying social networks with heterogeneous activity and tie allocation.

PubMed

Ubaldi, Enrico; Perra, Nicola; Karsai, Márton; Vezzani, Alessandro; Burioni, Raffaella; Vespignani, Alessandro

2016-10-24

The dynamic of social networks is driven by the interplay between diverse mechanisms that still challenge our theoretical and modelling efforts. Amongst them, two are known to play a central role in shaping the networks evolution, namely the heterogeneous propensity of individuals to i) be socially active and ii) establish a new social relationships with their alters. Here, we empirically characterise these two mechanisms in seven real networks describing temporal human interactions in three different settings: scientific collaborations, Twitter mentions, and mobile phone calls. We find that the individuals' social activity and their strategy in choosing ties where to allocate their social interactions can be quantitatively described and encoded in a simple stochastic network modelling framework. The Master Equation of the model can be solved in the asymptotic limit. The analytical solutions provide an explicit description of both the system dynamic and the dynamical scaling laws characterising crucial aspects about the evolution of the networks. The analytical predictions match with accuracy the empirical observations, thus validating the theoretical approach. Our results provide a rigorous dynamical system framework that can be extended to include other processes shaping social dynamics and to generate data driven predictions for the asymptotic behaviour of social networks.

Asymptotic theory of time-varying social networks with heterogeneous activity and tie allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ubaldi, Enrico; Perra, Nicola; Karsai, Márton; Vezzani, Alessandro; Burioni, Raffaella; Vespignani, Alessandro

2016-10-01

The dynamic of social networks is driven by the interplay between diverse mechanisms that still challenge our theoretical and modelling efforts. Amongst them, two are known to play a central role in shaping the networks evolution, namely the heterogeneous propensity of individuals to i) be socially active and ii) establish a new social relationships with their alters. Here, we empirically characterise these two mechanisms in seven real networks describing temporal human interactions in three different settings: scientific collaborations, Twitter mentions, and mobile phone calls. We find that the individuals’ social activity and their strategy in choosing ties where to allocate their social interactions can be quantitatively described and encoded in a simple stochastic network modelling framework. The Master Equation of the model can be solved in the asymptotic limit. The analytical solutions provide an explicit description of both the system dynamic and the dynamical scaling laws characterising crucial aspects about the evolution of the networks. The analytical predictions match with accuracy the empirical observations, thus validating the theoretical approach. Our results provide a rigorous dynamical system framework that can be extended to include other processes shaping social dynamics and to generate data driven predictions for the asymptotic behaviour of social networks.

Community Landscapes: An Integrative Approach to Determine Overlapping Network Module Hierarchy, Identify Key Nodes and Predict Network Dynamics

PubMed Central

Kovács, István A.; Palotai, Robin; Szalay, Máté S.; Csermely, Peter

2010-01-01

Background Network communities help the functional organization and evolution of complex networks. However, the development of a method, which is both fast and accurate, provides modular overlaps and partitions of a heterogeneous network, has proven to be rather difficult. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we introduce the novel concept of ModuLand, an integrative method family determining overlapping network modules as hills of an influence function-based, centrality-type community landscape, and including several widely used modularization methods as special cases. As various adaptations of the method family, we developed several algorithms, which provide an efficient analysis of weighted and directed networks, and (1) determine pervasively overlapping modules with high resolution; (2) uncover a detailed hierarchical network structure allowing an efficient, zoom-in analysis of large networks; (3) allow the determination of key network nodes and (4) help to predict network dynamics. Conclusions/Significance The concept opens a wide range of possibilities to develop new approaches and applications including network routing, classification, comparison and prediction. PMID:20824084

Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs.

PubMed

Springer, Andrea; Kappeler, Peter M; Nunn, Charles L

2017-05-01

Social networks provide an established tool to implement heterogeneous contact structures in epidemiological models. Dynamic temporal changes in contact structure and ranging behaviour of wildlife may impact disease dynamics. A consensus has yet to emerge, however, concerning the conditions in which network dynamics impact model outcomes, as compared to static approximations that average contact rates over longer time periods. Furthermore, as many pathogens can be transmitted both environmentally and via close contact, it is important to investigate the relative influence of both transmission routes in real-world populations. Here, we use empirically derived networks from a population of wild primates, Verreaux's sifakas (Propithecus verreauxi), and simulated networks to investigate pathogen spread in dynamic vs. static social networks. First, we constructed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model of Cryptosporidium spread in wild Verreaux's sifakas. We incorporated social and environmental transmission routes and parameterized the model for two different climatic seasons. Second, we used simulated networks and greater variation in epidemiological parameters to investigate the conditions in which dynamic networks produce larger outbreak sizes than static networks. We found that average outbreak size of Cryptosporidium infections in sifakas was larger when the disease was introduced in the dry season than in the wet season, driven by an increase in home range overlap towards the end of the dry season. Regardless of season, dynamic networks always produced larger average outbreak sizes than static networks. Larger outbreaks in dynamic models based on simulated networks occurred especially when the probability of transmission and recovery were low. Variation in tie strength in the dynamic networks also had a major impact on outbreak size, while network modularity had a weaker influence than epidemiological parameters that determine transmission and recovery. Our study adds to emerging evidence that dynamic networks can change predictions of disease dynamics, especially if the disease shows low transmissibility and a long infectious period, and when environmental conditions lead to enhanced between-group contact after an infectious agent has been introduced. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Small-World Network Spectra in Mean-Field Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabow, Carsten; Grosskinsky, Stefan; Timme, Marc

2012-05-01

Collective dynamics on small-world networks emerge in a broad range of systems with their spectra characterizing fundamental asymptotic features. Here we derive analytic mean-field predictions for the spectra of small-world models that systematically interpolate between regular and random topologies by varying their randomness. These theoretical predictions agree well with the actual spectra (obtained by numerical diagonalization) for undirected and directed networks and from fully regular to strongly random topologies. These results may provide analytical insights to empirically found features of dynamics on small-world networks from various research fields, including biology, physics, engineering, and social science.

Topological Principles of Control in Dynamical Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jason; Pasqualetti, Fabio; Bassett, Danielle

Networked biological systems, such as the brain, feature complex patterns of interactions. To predict and correct the dynamic behavior of such systems, it is imperative to understand how the underlying topological structure affects and limits the function of the system. Here, we use network control theory to extract topological features that favor or prevent network controllability, and to understand the network-wide effect of external stimuli on large-scale brain systems. Specifically, we treat each brain region as a dynamic entity with real-valued state, and model the time evolution of all interconnected regions using linear, time-invariant dynamics. We propose a simplified feed-forward scheme where the effect of upstream regions (drivers) on the connected downstream regions (non-drivers) is characterized in closed-form. Leveraging this characterization of the simplified model, we derive topological features that predict the controllability properties of non-simplified networks. We show analytically and numerically that these predictors are accurate across a large range of parameters. Among other contributions, our analysis shows that heterogeneity in the network weights facilitate controllability, and allows us to implement targeted interventions that profoundly improve controllability. By assuming an underlying dynamical mechanism, we are able to understand the complex topology of networked biological systems in a functionally meaningful way.

Connectionist Architectures for Time Series Prediction of Dynamical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigend, Andreas Sebastian

We investigate the effectiveness of connectionist networks for predicting the future continuation of temporal sequences. The problem of overfitting, particularly serious for short records of noisy data, is addressed by the method of weight-elimination: a term penalizing network complexity is added to the usual cost function in back-propagation. We describe the dynamics of the procedure and clarify the meaning of the parameters involved. From a Bayesian perspective, the complexity term can be usefully interpreted as an assumption about prior distribution of the weights. We analyze three time series. On the benchmark sunspot series, the networks outperform traditional statistical approaches. We show that the network performance does not deteriorate when there are more input units than needed. In the second example, the notoriously noisy foreign exchange rates series, we pick one weekday and one currency (DM vs. US). Given exchange rate information up to and including a Monday, the task is to predict the rate for the following Tuesday. Weight-elimination manages to extract a significant part of the dynamics and makes the solution interpretable. In the third example, the networks predict the resource utilization of a chaotic computational ecosystem for hundreds of steps forward in time.

Data-driven reverse engineering of signaling pathways using ensembles of dynamic models.

PubMed

Henriques, David; Villaverde, Alejandro F; Rocha, Miguel; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Banga, Julio R

2017-02-01

Despite significant efforts and remarkable progress, the inference of signaling networks from experimental data remains very challenging. The problem is particularly difficult when the objective is to obtain a dynamic model capable of predicting the effect of novel perturbations not considered during model training. The problem is ill-posed due to the nonlinear nature of these systems, the fact that only a fraction of the involved proteins and their post-translational modifications can be measured, and limitations on the technologies used for growing cells in vitro, perturbing them, and measuring their variations. As a consequence, there is a pervasive lack of identifiability. To overcome these issues, we present a methodology called SELDOM (enSEmbLe of Dynamic lOgic-based Models), which builds an ensemble of logic-based dynamic models, trains them to experimental data, and combines their individual simulations into an ensemble prediction. It also includes a model reduction step to prune spurious interactions and mitigate overfitting. SELDOM is a data-driven method, in the sense that it does not require any prior knowledge of the system: the interaction networks that act as scaffolds for the dynamic models are inferred from data using mutual information. We have tested SELDOM on a number of experimental and in silico signal transduction case-studies, including the recent HPN-DREAM breast cancer challenge. We found that its performance is highly competitive compared to state-of-the-art methods for the purpose of recovering network topology. More importantly, the utility of SELDOM goes beyond basic network inference (i.e. uncovering static interaction networks): it builds dynamic (based on ordinary differential equation) models, which can be used for mechanistic interpretations and reliable dynamic predictions in new experimental conditions (i.e. not used in the training). For this task, SELDOM's ensemble prediction is not only consistently better than predictions from individual models, but also often outperforms the state of the art represented by the methods used in the HPN-DREAM challenge.

Data-driven reverse engineering of signaling pathways using ensembles of dynamic models

PubMed Central

Henriques, David; Villaverde, Alejandro F.; Banga, Julio R.

2017-01-01

Despite significant efforts and remarkable progress, the inference of signaling networks from experimental data remains very challenging. The problem is particularly difficult when the objective is to obtain a dynamic model capable of predicting the effect of novel perturbations not considered during model training. The problem is ill-posed due to the nonlinear nature of these systems, the fact that only a fraction of the involved proteins and their post-translational modifications can be measured, and limitations on the technologies used for growing cells in vitro, perturbing them, and measuring their variations. As a consequence, there is a pervasive lack of identifiability. To overcome these issues, we present a methodology called SELDOM (enSEmbLe of Dynamic lOgic-based Models), which builds an ensemble of logic-based dynamic models, trains them to experimental data, and combines their individual simulations into an ensemble prediction. It also includes a model reduction step to prune spurious interactions and mitigate overfitting. SELDOM is a data-driven method, in the sense that it does not require any prior knowledge of the system: the interaction networks that act as scaffolds for the dynamic models are inferred from data using mutual information. We have tested SELDOM on a number of experimental and in silico signal transduction case-studies, including the recent HPN-DREAM breast cancer challenge. We found that its performance is highly competitive compared to state-of-the-art methods for the purpose of recovering network topology. More importantly, the utility of SELDOM goes beyond basic network inference (i.e. uncovering static interaction networks): it builds dynamic (based on ordinary differential equation) models, which can be used for mechanistic interpretations and reliable dynamic predictions in new experimental conditions (i.e. not used in the training). For this task, SELDOM’s ensemble prediction is not only consistently better than predictions from individual models, but also often outperforms the state of the art represented by the methods used in the HPN-DREAM challenge. PMID:28166222

Predicting non-linear dynamics by stable local learning in a recurrent spiking neural network.

PubMed

Gilra, Aditya; Gerstner, Wulfram

2017-11-27

The brain needs to predict how the body reacts to motor commands, but how a network of spiking neurons can learn non-linear body dynamics using local, online and stable learning rules is unclear. Here, we present a supervised learning scheme for the feedforward and recurrent connections in a network of heterogeneous spiking neurons. The error in the output is fed back through fixed random connections with a negative gain, causing the network to follow the desired dynamics. The rule for Feedback-based Online Local Learning Of Weights (FOLLOW) is local in the sense that weight changes depend on the presynaptic activity and the error signal projected onto the postsynaptic neuron. We provide examples of learning linear, non-linear and chaotic dynamics, as well as the dynamics of a two-link arm. Under reasonable approximations, we show, using the Lyapunov method, that FOLLOW learning is uniformly stable, with the error going to zero asymptotically.

Predicting non-linear dynamics by stable local learning in a recurrent spiking neural network

PubMed Central

Gerstner, Wulfram

2017-01-01

The brain needs to predict how the body reacts to motor commands, but how a network of spiking neurons can learn non-linear body dynamics using local, online and stable learning rules is unclear. Here, we present a supervised learning scheme for the feedforward and recurrent connections in a network of heterogeneous spiking neurons. The error in the output is fed back through fixed random connections with a negative gain, causing the network to follow the desired dynamics. The rule for Feedback-based Online Local Learning Of Weights (FOLLOW) is local in the sense that weight changes depend on the presynaptic activity and the error signal projected onto the postsynaptic neuron. We provide examples of learning linear, non-linear and chaotic dynamics, as well as the dynamics of a two-link arm. Under reasonable approximations, we show, using the Lyapunov method, that FOLLOW learning is uniformly stable, with the error going to zero asymptotically. PMID:29173280

Prediction of missing links and reconstruction of complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Cheng-Jun; Zeng, An

2016-04-01

Predicting missing links in complex networks is of great significance from both theoretical and practical point of view, which not only helps us understand the evolution of real systems but also relates to many applications in social, biological and online systems. In this paper, we study the features of different simple link prediction methods, revealing that they may lead to the distortion of networks’ structural and dynamical properties. Moreover, we find that high prediction accuracy is not definitely corresponding to a high performance in preserving the network properties when using link prediction methods to reconstruct networks. Our work highlights the importance of considering the feedback effect of the link prediction methods on network properties when designing the algorithms.

Control of complex networks requires both structure and dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gates, Alexander J.; Rocha, Luis M.

2016-04-01

The study of network structure has uncovered signatures of the organization of complex systems. However, there is also a need to understand how to control them; for example, identifying strategies to revert a diseased cell to a healthy state, or a mature cell to a pluripotent state. Two recent methodologies suggest that the controllability of complex systems can be predicted solely from the graph of interactions between variables, without considering their dynamics: structural controllability and minimum dominating sets. We demonstrate that such structure-only methods fail to characterize controllability when dynamics are introduced. We study Boolean network ensembles of network motifs as well as three models of biochemical regulation: the segment polarity network in Drosophila melanogaster, the cell cycle of budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and the floral organ arrangement in Arabidopsis thaliana. We demonstrate that structure-only methods both undershoot and overshoot the number and which sets of critical variables best control the dynamics of these models, highlighting the importance of the actual system dynamics in determining control. Our analysis further shows that the logic of automata transition functions, namely how canalizing they are, plays an important role in the extent to which structure predicts dynamics.

Spatiotemporal Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Traffic Prediction in Transportation Networks

PubMed Central

Yu, Haiyang; Wu, Zhihai; Wang, Shuqin; Wang, Yunpeng; Ma, Xiaolei

2017-01-01

Predicting large-scale transportation network traffic has become an important and challenging topic in recent decades. Inspired by the domain knowledge of motion prediction, in which the future motion of an object can be predicted based on previous scenes, we propose a network grid representation method that can retain the fine-scale structure of a transportation network. Network-wide traffic speeds are converted into a series of static images and input into a novel deep architecture, namely, spatiotemporal recurrent convolutional networks (SRCNs), for traffic forecasting. The proposed SRCNs inherit the advantages of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. The spatial dependencies of network-wide traffic can be captured by DCNNs, and the temporal dynamics can be learned by LSTMs. An experiment on a Beijing transportation network with 278 links demonstrates that SRCNs outperform other deep learning-based algorithms in both short-term and long-term traffic prediction. PMID:28672867

Spatiotemporal Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Traffic Prediction in Transportation Networks.

PubMed

Yu, Haiyang; Wu, Zhihai; Wang, Shuqin; Wang, Yunpeng; Ma, Xiaolei

2017-06-26

Predicting large-scale transportation network traffic has become an important and challenging topic in recent decades. Inspired by the domain knowledge of motion prediction, in which the future motion of an object can be predicted based on previous scenes, we propose a network grid representation method that can retain the fine-scale structure of a transportation network. Network-wide traffic speeds are converted into a series of static images and input into a novel deep architecture, namely, spatiotemporal recurrent convolutional networks (SRCNs), for traffic forecasting. The proposed SRCNs inherit the advantages of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. The spatial dependencies of network-wide traffic can be captured by DCNNs, and the temporal dynamics can be learned by LSTMs. An experiment on a Beijing transportation network with 278 links demonstrates that SRCNs outperform other deep learning-based algorithms in both short-term and long-term traffic prediction.

Predicting Physical Time Series Using Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Al-Jumeily, Dhiya; Ghazali, Rozaida; Hussain, Abir

2014-01-01

Forecasting naturally occurring phenomena is a common problem in many domains of science, and this has been addressed and investigated by many scientists. The importance of time series prediction stems from the fact that it has wide range of applications, including control systems, engineering processes, environmental systems and economics. From the knowledge of some aspects of the previous behaviour of the system, the aim of the prediction process is to determine or predict its future behaviour. In this paper, we consider a novel application of a higher order polynomial neural network architecture called Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network that combines the properties of higher order and recurrent neural networks for the prediction of physical time series. In this study, four types of signals have been used, which are; The Lorenz attractor, mean value of the AE index, sunspot number, and heat wave temperature. The simulation results showed good improvements in terms of the signal to noise ratio in comparison to a number of higher order and feedforward neural networks in comparison to the benchmarked techniques. PMID:25157950

Predicting physical time series using dynamic ridge polynomial neural networks.

PubMed

Al-Jumeily, Dhiya; Ghazali, Rozaida; Hussain, Abir

2014-01-01

Forecasting naturally occurring phenomena is a common problem in many domains of science, and this has been addressed and investigated by many scientists. The importance of time series prediction stems from the fact that it has wide range of applications, including control systems, engineering processes, environmental systems and economics. From the knowledge of some aspects of the previous behaviour of the system, the aim of the prediction process is to determine or predict its future behaviour. In this paper, we consider a novel application of a higher order polynomial neural network architecture called Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network that combines the properties of higher order and recurrent neural networks for the prediction of physical time series. In this study, four types of signals have been used, which are; The Lorenz attractor, mean value of the AE index, sunspot number, and heat wave temperature. The simulation results showed good improvements in terms of the signal to noise ratio in comparison to a number of higher order and feedforward neural networks in comparison to the benchmarked techniques.

Competitive Dynamics on Complex Networks

PubMed Central

Zhao, Jiuhua; Liu, Qipeng; Wang, Xiaofan

2014-01-01

We consider a dynamical network model in which two competitors have fixed and different states, and each normal agent adjusts its state according to a distributed consensus protocol. The state of each normal agent converges to a steady value which is a convex combination of the competitors' states, and is independent of the initial states of agents. This implies that the competition result is fully determined by the network structure and positions of competitors in the network. We compute an Influence Matrix (IM) in which each element characterizing the influence of an agent on another agent in the network. We use the IM to predict the bias of each normal agent and thus predict which competitor will win. Furthermore, we compare the IM criterion with seven node centrality measures to predict the winner. We find that the competitor with higher Katz Centrality in an undirected network or higher PageRank in a directed network is most likely to be the winner. These findings may shed new light on the role of network structure in competition and to what extent could competitors adjust network structure so as to win the competition. PMID:25068622

Complex Rotation Quantum Dynamic Neural Networks (CRQDNN) using Complex Quantum Neuron (CQN): Applications to time series prediction.

PubMed

Cui, Yiqian; Shi, Junyou; Wang, Zili

2015-11-01

Quantum Neural Networks (QNN) models have attracted great attention since it innovates a new neural computing manner based on quantum entanglement. However, the existing QNN models are mainly based on the real quantum operations, and the potential of quantum entanglement is not fully exploited. In this paper, we proposes a novel quantum neuron model called Complex Quantum Neuron (CQN) that realizes a deep quantum entanglement. Also, a novel hybrid networks model Complex Rotation Quantum Dynamic Neural Networks (CRQDNN) is proposed based on Complex Quantum Neuron (CQN). CRQDNN is a three layer model with both CQN and classical neurons. An infinite impulse response (IIR) filter is embedded in the Networks model to enable the memory function to process time series inputs. The Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm is used for fast parameter learning. The networks model is developed to conduct time series predictions. Two application studies are done in this paper, including the chaotic time series prediction and electronic remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Altered predictive capability of the brain network EEG model in schizophrenia during cognition.

PubMed

Gomez-Pilar, Javier; Poza, Jesús; Gómez, Carlos; Northoff, Georg; Lubeiro, Alba; Cea-Cañas, Benjamín B; Molina, Vicente; Hornero, Roberto

2018-05-12

The study of the mechanisms involved in cognition is of paramount importance for the understanding of the neurobiological substrates in psychiatric disorders. Hence, this research is aimed at exploring the brain network dynamics during a cognitive task. Specifically, we analyze the predictive capability of the pre-stimulus theta activity to ascertain the functional brain dynamics during cognition in both healthy and schizophrenia subjects. Firstly, EEG recordings were acquired during a three-tone oddball task from fifty-one healthy subjects and thirty-five schizophrenia patients. Secondly, phase-based coupling measures were used to generate the time-varying functional network for each subject. Finally, pre-stimulus network connections were iteratively modified according to different models of network reorganization. This adjustment was applied by minimizing the prediction error through recurrent iterations, following the predictive coding approach. Both controls and schizophrenia patients follow a reinforcement of the secondary neural pathways (i.e., pathways between cortical brain regions weakly connected during pre-stimulus) for most of the subjects, though the ratio of controls that exhibited this behavior was statistically significant higher than for patients. These findings suggest that schizophrenia is associated with an impaired ability to modify brain network configuration during cognition. Furthermore, we provide direct evidence that the changes in phase-based brain network parameters from pre-stimulus to cognitive response in the theta band are closely related to the performance in important cognitive domains. Our findings not only contribute to the understanding of healthy brain dynamics, but also shed light on the altered predictive neuronal substrates in schizophrenia. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictive Control of Networked Multiagent Systems via Cloud Computing.

PubMed

Liu, Guo-Ping

2017-01-18

This paper studies the design and analysis of networked multiagent predictive control systems via cloud computing. A cloud predictive control scheme for networked multiagent systems (NMASs) is proposed to achieve consensus and stability simultaneously and to compensate for network delays actively. The design of the cloud predictive controller for NMASs is detailed. The analysis of the cloud predictive control scheme gives the necessary and sufficient conditions of stability and consensus of closed-loop networked multiagent control systems. The proposed scheme is verified to characterize the dynamical behavior and control performance of NMASs through simulations. The outcome provides a foundation for the development of cooperative and coordinative control of NMASs and its applications.

Dynamic optimization of metabolic networks coupled with gene expression.

PubMed

Waldherr, Steffen; Oyarzún, Diego A; Bockmayr, Alexander

2015-01-21

The regulation of metabolic activity by tuning enzyme expression levels is crucial to sustain cellular growth in changing environments. Metabolic networks are often studied at steady state using constraint-based models and optimization techniques. However, metabolic adaptations driven by changes in gene expression cannot be analyzed by steady state models, as these do not account for temporal changes in biomass composition. Here we present a dynamic optimization framework that integrates the metabolic network with the dynamics of biomass production and composition. An approximation by a timescale separation leads to a coupled model of quasi-steady state constraints on the metabolic reactions, and differential equations for the substrate concentrations and biomass composition. We propose a dynamic optimization approach to determine reaction fluxes for this model, explicitly taking into account enzyme production costs and enzymatic capacity. In contrast to the established dynamic flux balance analysis, our approach allows predicting dynamic changes in both the metabolic fluxes and the biomass composition during metabolic adaptations. Discretization of the optimization problems leads to a linear program that can be efficiently solved. We applied our algorithm in two case studies: a minimal nutrient uptake network, and an abstraction of core metabolic processes in bacteria. In the minimal model, we show that the optimized uptake rates reproduce the empirical Monod growth for bacterial cultures. For the network of core metabolic processes, the dynamic optimization algorithm predicted commonly observed metabolic adaptations, such as a diauxic switch with a preference ranking for different nutrients, re-utilization of waste products after depletion of the original substrate, and metabolic adaptation to an impending nutrient depletion. These examples illustrate how dynamic adaptations of enzyme expression can be predicted solely from an optimization principle. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Displacement prediction of Baijiabao landslide based on empirical mode decomposition and long short-term memory neural network in Three Gorges area, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shiluo; Niu, Ruiqing

2018-02-01

Every year, landslides pose huge threats to thousands of people in China, especially those in the Three Gorges area. It is thus necessary to establish an early warning system to help prevent property damage and save peoples' lives. Most of the landslide displacement prediction models that have been proposed are static models. However, landslides are dynamic systems. In this paper, the total accumulative displacement of the Baijiabao landslide is divided into trend and periodic components using empirical mode decomposition. The trend component is predicted using an S-curve estimation, and the total periodic component is predicted using a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). LSTM is a dynamic model that can remember historical information and apply it to the current output. Six triggering factors are chosen to predict the periodic term using the Pearson cross-correlation coefficient and mutual information. These factors include the cumulative precipitation during the previous month, the cumulative precipitation during a two-month period, the reservoir level during the current month, the change in the reservoir level during the previous month, the cumulative increment of the reservoir level during the current month, and the cumulative displacement during the previous month. When using one-step-ahead prediction, LSTM yields a root mean squared error (RMSE) value of 6.112 mm, while the support vector machine for regression (SVR) and the back-propagation neural network (BP) yield values of 10.686 mm and 8.237 mm, respectively. Meanwhile, the Elman network (Elman) yields an RMSE value of 6.579 mm. In addition, when using multi-step-ahead prediction, LSTM obtains an RMSE value of 8.648 mm, while SVR, BP and the Elman network obtains RSME values of 13.418 mm, 13.014 mm, and 13.370 mm. The predicted results indicate that, to some extent, the dynamic model (LSTM) achieves results that are more accurate than those of the static models (i.e., SVR and BP). LSTM even displays better performance than the Elman network, which is also a dynamic method.

Universal Critical Dynamics in High Resolution Neuronal Avalanche Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedman, Nir; Ito, Shinya; Brinkman, Braden A. W.; Shimono, Masanori; DeVille, R. E. Lee; Dahmen, Karin A.; Beggs, John M.; Butler, Thomas C.

2012-05-01

The tasks of neural computation are remarkably diverse. To function optimally, neuronal networks have been hypothesized to operate near a nonequilibrium critical point. However, experimental evidence for critical dynamics has been inconclusive. Here, we show that the dynamics of cultured cortical networks are critical. We analyze neuronal network data collected at the individual neuron level using the framework of nonequilibrium phase transitions. Among the most striking predictions confirmed is that the mean temporal profiles of avalanches of widely varying durations are quantitatively described by a single universal scaling function. We also show that the data have three additional features predicted by critical phenomena: approximate power law distributions of avalanche sizes and durations, samples in subcritical and supercritical phases, and scaling laws between anomalous exponents.

Graph fibrations and symmetries of network dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijholt, Eddie; Rink, Bob; Sanders, Jan

2016-11-01

Dynamical systems with a network structure can display remarkable phenomena such as synchronisation and anomalous synchrony breaking. A methodology for classifying patterns of synchrony in networks was developed by Golubitsky and Stewart. They showed that the robustly synchronous dynamics of a network is determined by its quotient networks. This result was recently reformulated by DeVille and Lerman, who pointed out that the reduction from a network to a quotient is an example of a graph fibration. The current paper exploits this observation and demonstrates the importance of self-fibrations of network graphs. Self-fibrations give rise to symmetries in the dynamics of a network. We show that every network admits a lift with a semigroup or semigroupoid of self-fibrations. The resulting symmetries impact the global dynamics of the network and can therefore be used to explain and predict generic scenarios for synchrony breaking. Also, when the network has a trivial symmetry groupoid, then every robust synchrony in the lift is determined by symmetry. We finish this paper with a discussion of networks with interior symmetries and nonhomogeneous networks.

Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models.

PubMed

Daniels, Bryan C; Nemenman, Ilya

2015-08-21

Dynamics of complex systems is often driven by large and intricate networks of microscopic interactions, whose sheer size obfuscates understanding. With limited experimental data, many parameters of such dynamics are unknown, and thus detailed, mechanistic models risk overfitting and making faulty predictions. At the other extreme, simple ad hoc models often miss defining features of the underlying systems. Here we develop an approach that instead constructs phenomenological, coarse-grained models of network dynamics that automatically adapt their complexity to the available data. Such adaptive models produce accurate predictions even when microscopic details are unknown. The approach is computationally tractable, even for a relatively large number of dynamical variables. Using simulated data, it correctly infers the phase space structure for planetary motion, avoids overfitting in a biological signalling system and produces accurate predictions for yeast glycolysis with tens of data points and over half of the interacting species unobserved.

Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models

PubMed Central

Daniels, Bryan C.; Nemenman, Ilya

2015-01-01

Dynamics of complex systems is often driven by large and intricate networks of microscopic interactions, whose sheer size obfuscates understanding. With limited experimental data, many parameters of such dynamics are unknown, and thus detailed, mechanistic models risk overfitting and making faulty predictions. At the other extreme, simple ad hoc models often miss defining features of the underlying systems. Here we develop an approach that instead constructs phenomenological, coarse-grained models of network dynamics that automatically adapt their complexity to the available data. Such adaptive models produce accurate predictions even when microscopic details are unknown. The approach is computationally tractable, even for a relatively large number of dynamical variables. Using simulated data, it correctly infers the phase space structure for planetary motion, avoids overfitting in a biological signalling system and produces accurate predictions for yeast glycolysis with tens of data points and over half of the interacting species unobserved. PMID:26293508

Dynamic model of time-dependent complex networks.

PubMed

Hill, Scott A; Braha, Dan

2010-10-01

The characterization of the "most connected" nodes in static or slowly evolving complex networks has helped in understanding and predicting the behavior of social, biological, and technological networked systems, including their robustness against failures, vulnerability to deliberate attacks, and diffusion properties. However, recent empirical research of large dynamic networks (characterized by irregular connections that evolve rapidly) has demonstrated that there is little continuity in degree centrality of nodes over time, even when their degree distributions follow a power law. This unexpected dynamic centrality suggests that the connections in these systems are not driven by preferential attachment or other known mechanisms. We present an approach to explain real-world dynamic networks and qualitatively reproduce these dynamic centrality phenomena. This approach is based on a dynamic preferential attachment mechanism, which exhibits a sharp transition from a base pure random walk scheme.

Application of dynamic recurrent neural networks in nonlinear system identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Yun; Wu, Xueli; Sun, Huiqin; Zhang, Suying; Tian, Qiang

2006-11-01

An adaptive identification method of simple dynamic recurrent neural network (SRNN) for nonlinear dynamic systems is presented in this paper. This method based on the theory that by using the inner-states feed-back of dynamic network to describe the nonlinear kinetic characteristics of system can reflect the dynamic characteristics more directly, deduces the recursive prediction error (RPE) learning algorithm of SRNN, and improves the algorithm by studying topological structure on recursion layer without the weight values. The simulation results indicate that this kind of neural network can be used in real-time control, due to its less weight values, simpler learning algorithm, higher identification speed, and higher precision of model. It solves the problems of intricate in training algorithm and slow rate in convergence caused by the complicate topological structure in usual dynamic recurrent neural network.

Core reactivity estimation in space reactors using recurrent dynamic networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parlos, Alexander G.; Tsai, Wei K.

1991-01-01

A recurrent multilayer perceptron network topology is used in the identification of nonlinear dynamic systems from only the input/output measurements. The identification is performed in the discrete time domain, with the learning algorithm being a modified form of the back propagation (BP) rule. The recurrent dynamic network (RDN) developed is applied for the total core reactivity prediction of a spacecraft reactor from only neutronic power level measurements. Results indicate that the RDN can reproduce the nonlinear response of the reactor while keeping the number of nodes roughly equal to the relative order of the system. As accuracy requirements are increased, the number of required nodes also increases, however, the order of the RDN necessary to obtain such results is still in the same order of magnitude as the order of the mathematical model of the system. It is believed that use of the recurrent MLP structure with a variety of different learning algorithms may prove useful in utilizing artificial neural networks for recognition, classification, and prediction of dynamic systems.

Establishing a Dynamic Self-Adaptation Learning Algorithm of the BP Neural Network and Its Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaofeng; Xiang, Suying; Zhu, Pengfei; Wu, Min

2015-12-01

In order to avoid the inherent deficiencies of the traditional BP neural network, such as slow convergence speed, that easily leading to local minima, poor generalization ability and difficulty in determining the network structure, the dynamic self-adaptive learning algorithm of the BP neural network is put forward to improve the function of the BP neural network. The new algorithm combines the merit of principal component analysis, particle swarm optimization, correlation analysis and self-adaptive model, hence can effectively solve the problems of selecting structural parameters, initial connection weights and thresholds and learning rates of the BP neural network. This new algorithm not only reduces the human intervention, optimizes the topological structures of BP neural networks and improves the network generalization ability, but also accelerates the convergence speed of a network, avoids trapping into local minima, and enhances network adaptation ability and prediction ability. The dynamic self-adaptive learning algorithm of the BP neural network is used to forecast the total retail sale of consumer goods of Sichuan Province, China. Empirical results indicate that the new algorithm is superior to the traditional BP network algorithm in predicting accuracy and time consumption, which shows the feasibility and effectiveness of the new algorithm.

Neural dynamics of reward probability coding: a Magnetoencephalographic study in humans

PubMed Central

Thomas, Julie; Vanni-Mercier, Giovanna; Dreher, Jean-Claude

2013-01-01

Prediction of future rewards and discrepancy between actual and expected outcomes (prediction error) are crucial signals for adaptive behavior. In humans, a number of fMRI studies demonstrated that reward probability modulates these two signals in a large brain network. Yet, the spatio-temporal dynamics underlying the neural coding of reward probability remains unknown. Here, using magnetoencephalography, we investigated the neural dynamics of prediction and reward prediction error computations while subjects learned to associate cues of slot machines with monetary rewards with different probabilities. We showed that event-related magnetic fields (ERFs) arising from the visual cortex coded the expected reward value 155 ms after the cue, demonstrating that reward value signals emerge early in the visual stream. Moreover, a prediction error was reflected in ERF peaking 300 ms after the rewarded outcome and showing decreasing amplitude with higher reward probability. This prediction error signal was generated in a network including the anterior and posterior cingulate cortex. These findings pinpoint the spatio-temporal characteristics underlying reward probability coding. Together, our results provide insights into the neural dynamics underlying the ability to learn probabilistic stimuli-reward contingencies. PMID:24302894

Selection on Network Dynamics Drives Differential Rates of Protein Domain Evolution

PubMed Central

Mannakee, Brian K.; Gutenkunst, Ryan N.

2016-01-01

The long-held principle that functionally important proteins evolve slowly has recently been challenged by studies in mice and yeast showing that the severity of a protein knockout only weakly predicts that protein’s rate of evolution. However, the relevance of these studies to evolutionary changes within proteins is unknown, because amino acid substitutions, unlike knockouts, often only slightly perturb protein activity. To quantify the phenotypic effect of small biochemical perturbations, we developed an approach to use computational systems biology models to measure the influence of individual reaction rate constants on network dynamics. We show that this dynamical influence is predictive of protein domain evolutionary rate within networks in vertebrates and yeast, even after controlling for expression level and breadth, network topology, and knockout effect. Thus, our results not only demonstrate the importance of protein domain function in determining evolutionary rate, but also the power of systems biology modeling to uncover unanticipated evolutionary forces. PMID:27380265

Parameter prediction based on Improved Process neural network and ARMA error compensation in Evaporation Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Xiaoshan

2018-01-01

The traditional model of evaporation process parameters have continuity and cumulative characteristics of the prediction error larger issues, based on the basis of the process proposed an adaptive particle swarm neural network forecasting method parameters established on the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) error correction procedure compensated prediction model to predict the results of the neural network to improve prediction accuracy. Taking a alumina plant evaporation process to analyze production data validation, and compared with the traditional model, the new model prediction accuracy greatly improved, can be used to predict the dynamic process of evaporation of sodium aluminate solution components.

Optimization of matrix tablets controlled drug release using Elman dynamic neural networks and decision trees.

PubMed

Petrović, Jelena; Ibrić, Svetlana; Betz, Gabriele; Đurić, Zorica

2012-05-30

The main objective of the study was to develop artificial intelligence methods for optimization of drug release from matrix tablets regardless of the matrix type. Static and dynamic artificial neural networks of the same topology were developed to model dissolution profiles of different matrix tablets types (hydrophilic/lipid) using formulation composition, compression force used for tableting and tablets porosity and tensile strength as input data. Potential application of decision trees in discovering knowledge from experimental data was also investigated. Polyethylene oxide polymer and glyceryl palmitostearate were used as matrix forming materials for hydrophilic and lipid matrix tablets, respectively whereas selected model drugs were diclofenac sodium and caffeine. Matrix tablets were prepared by direct compression method and tested for in vitro dissolution profiles. Optimization of static and dynamic neural networks used for modeling of drug release was performed using Monte Carlo simulations or genetic algorithms optimizer. Decision trees were constructed following discretization of data. Calculated difference (f(1)) and similarity (f(2)) factors for predicted and experimentally obtained dissolution profiles of test matrix tablets formulations indicate that Elman dynamic neural networks as well as decision trees are capable of accurate predictions of both hydrophilic and lipid matrix tablets dissolution profiles. Elman neural networks were compared to most frequently used static network, Multi-layered perceptron, and superiority of Elman networks have been demonstrated. Developed methods allow simple, yet very precise way of drug release predictions for both hydrophilic and lipid matrix tablets having controlled drug release. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pilots Rate Augmented Generalized Predictive Control for Reconfiguration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soloway, Don; Haley, Pam

2004-01-01

The objective of this paper is to report the results from the research being conducted in reconfigurable fight controls at NASA Ames. A study was conducted with three NASA Dryden test pilots to evaluate two approaches of reconfiguring an aircraft's control system when failures occur in the control surfaces and engine. NASA Ames is investigating both a Neural Generalized Predictive Control scheme and a Neural Network based Dynamic Inverse controller. This paper highlights the Predictive Control scheme where a simple augmentation to reduce zero steady-state error led to the neural network predictor model becoming redundant for the task. Instead of using a neural network predictor model, a nominal single point linear model was used and then augmented with an error corrector. This paper shows that the Generalized Predictive Controller and the Dynamic Inverse Neural Network controller perform equally well at reconfiguration, but with less rate requirements from the actuators. Also presented are the pilot ratings for each controller for various failure scenarios and two samples of the required control actuation during reconfiguration. Finally, the paper concludes by stepping through the Generalized Predictive Control's reconfiguration process for an elevator failure.

Dynamic reconfiguration of frontal brain networks during executive cognition in humans

PubMed Central

Braun, Urs; Schäfer, Axel; Walter, Henrik; Erk, Susanne; Romanczuk-Seiferth, Nina; Haddad, Leila; Schweiger, Janina I.; Grimm, Oliver; Heinz, Andreas; Tost, Heike; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Bassett, Danielle S.

2015-01-01

The brain is an inherently dynamic system, and executive cognition requires dynamically reconfiguring, highly evolving networks of brain regions that interact in complex and transient communication patterns. However, a precise characterization of these reconfiguration processes during cognitive function in humans remains elusive. Here, we use a series of techniques developed in the field of “dynamic network neuroscience” to investigate the dynamics of functional brain networks in 344 healthy subjects during a working-memory challenge (the “n-back” task). In contrast to a control condition, in which dynamic changes in cortical networks were spread evenly across systems, the effortful working-memory condition was characterized by a reconfiguration of frontoparietal and frontotemporal networks. This reconfiguration, which characterizes “network flexibility,” employs transient and heterogeneous connectivity between frontal systems, which we refer to as “integration.” Frontal integration predicted neuropsychological measures requiring working memory and executive cognition, suggesting that dynamic network reconfiguration between frontal systems supports those functions. Our results characterize dynamic reconfiguration of large-scale distributed neural circuits during executive cognition in humans and have implications for understanding impaired cognitive function in disorders affecting connectivity, such as schizophrenia or dementia. PMID:26324898

Predictability of Extreme Climate Events via a Complex Network Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhkin, D.; Kurths, J.

2017-12-01

We analyse climate dynamics from a complex network approach. This leads to an inverse problem: Is there a backbone-like structure underlying the climate system? For this we propose a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data generated by a spatio-temporal dynamical system. This approach enables us to uncover relations to global circulation patterns in oceans and atmosphere. This concept is then applied to Monsoon data; in particular, we develop a general framework to predict extreme events by combining a non-linear synchronization technique with complex networks. Applying this method, we uncover a new mechanism of extreme floods in the eastern Central Andes which could be used for operational forecasts. Moreover, we analyze the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and identify two regions of high importance. By estimating an underlying critical point, this leads to an improved prediction of the onset of the ISM; this scheme was successful in 2016 and 2017.

Integration of Structural Dynamics and Molecular Evolution via Protein Interaction Networks: A New Era in Genomic Medicine

PubMed Central

Kumar, Avishek; Butler, Brandon M.; Kumar, Sudhir; Ozkan, S. Banu

2016-01-01

Summary Sequencing technologies are revealing many new non-synonymous single nucleotide variants (nsSNVs) in each personal exome. To assess their functional impacts, comparative genomics is frequently employed to predict if they are benign or not. However, evolutionary analysis alone is insufficient, because it misdiagnoses many disease-associated nsSNVs, such as those at positions involved in protein interfaces, and because evolutionary predictions do not provide mechanistic insights into functional change or loss. Structural analyses can aid in overcoming both of these problems by incorporating conformational dynamics and allostery in nSNV diagnosis. Finally, protein-protein interaction networks using systems-level methodologies shed light onto disease etiology and pathogenesis. Bridging these network approaches with structurally resolved protein interactions and dynamics will advance genomic medicine. PMID:26684487

Controlling infectious disease through the targeted manipulation of contact network structure

PubMed Central

Gates, M. Carolyn; Woolhouse, Mark E.J.

2015-01-01

Individuals in human and animal populations are linked through dynamic contact networks with characteristic structural features that drive the epidemiology of directly transmissible infectious diseases. Using animal movement data from the British cattle industry as an example, this analysis explores whether disease dynamics can be altered by placing targeted restrictions on contact formation to reconfigure network topology. This was accomplished using a simple network generation algorithm that combined configuration wiring with stochastic block modelling techniques to preserve the weighted in- and out-degree of individual nodes (farms) as well as key demographic characteristics of the individual network connections (movement date, livestock market, and animal production type). We then tested a control strategy based on introducing additional constraints into the network generation algorithm to prevent farms with a high in-degree from selling cattle to farms with a high out-degree as these particular network connections are predicted to have a disproportionately strong role in spreading disease. Results from simple dynamic disease simulation models predicted significantly lower endemic disease prevalences on the trade restricted networks compared to the baseline generated networks. As expected, the relative magnitude of the predicted changes in endemic prevalence was greater for diseases with short infectious periods and low transmission probabilities. Overall, our study findings demonstrate that there is significant potential for controlling multiple infectious diseases simultaneously by manipulating networks to have more epidemiologically favourable topological configurations. Further research is needed to determine whether the economic and social benefits of controlling disease can justify the costs of restricting contact formation. PMID:26342238

Controlling infectious disease through the targeted manipulation of contact network structure.

PubMed

Gates, M Carolyn; Woolhouse, Mark E J

2015-09-01

Individuals in human and animal populations are linked through dynamic contact networks with characteristic structural features that drive the epidemiology of directly transmissible infectious diseases. Using animal movement data from the British cattle industry as an example, this analysis explores whether disease dynamics can be altered by placing targeted restrictions on contact formation to reconfigure network topology. This was accomplished using a simple network generation algorithm that combined configuration wiring with stochastic block modelling techniques to preserve the weighted in- and out-degree of individual nodes (farms) as well as key demographic characteristics of the individual network connections (movement date, livestock market, and animal production type). We then tested a control strategy based on introducing additional constraints into the network generation algorithm to prevent farms with a high in-degree from selling cattle to farms with a high out-degree as these particular network connections are predicted to have a disproportionately strong role in spreading disease. Results from simple dynamic disease simulation models predicted significantly lower endemic disease prevalences on the trade restricted networks compared to the baseline generated networks. As expected, the relative magnitude of the predicted changes in endemic prevalence was greater for diseases with short infectious periods and low transmission probabilities. Overall, our study findings demonstrate that there is significant potential for controlling multiple infectious diseases simultaneously by manipulating networks to have more epidemiologically favourable topological configurations. Further research is needed to determine whether the economic and social benefits of controlling disease can justify the costs of restricting contact formation. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mathematical modeling and computational prediction of cancer drug resistance.

PubMed

Sun, Xiaoqiang; Hu, Bin

2017-06-23

Diverse forms of resistance to anticancer drugs can lead to the failure of chemotherapy. Drug resistance is one of the most intractable issues for successfully treating cancer in current clinical practice. Effective clinical approaches that could counter drug resistance by restoring the sensitivity of tumors to the targeted agents are urgently needed. As numerous experimental results on resistance mechanisms have been obtained and a mass of high-throughput data has been accumulated, mathematical modeling and computational predictions using systematic and quantitative approaches have become increasingly important, as they can potentially provide deeper insights into resistance mechanisms, generate novel hypotheses or suggest promising treatment strategies for future testing. In this review, we first briefly summarize the current progress of experimentally revealed resistance mechanisms of targeted therapy, including genetic mechanisms, epigenetic mechanisms, posttranslational mechanisms, cellular mechanisms, microenvironmental mechanisms and pharmacokinetic mechanisms. Subsequently, we list several currently available databases and Web-based tools related to drug sensitivity and resistance. Then, we focus primarily on introducing some state-of-the-art computational methods used in drug resistance studies, including mechanism-based mathematical modeling approaches (e.g. molecular dynamics simulation, kinetic model of molecular networks, ordinary differential equation model of cellular dynamics, stochastic model, partial differential equation model, agent-based model, pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model, etc.) and data-driven prediction methods (e.g. omics data-based conventional screening approach for node biomarkers, static network approach for edge biomarkers and module biomarkers, dynamic network approach for dynamic network biomarkers and dynamic module network biomarkers, etc.). Finally, we discuss several further questions and future directions for the use of computational methods for studying drug resistance, including inferring drug-induced signaling networks, multiscale modeling, drug combinations and precision medicine. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Developing neuronal networks: Self-organized criticality predicts the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pu, Jiangbo; Gong, Hui; Li, Xiangning; Luo, Qingming

2013-01-01

Self-organized criticality emerged in neural activity is one of the key concepts to describe the formation and the function of developing neuronal networks. The relationship between critical dynamics and neural development is both theoretically and experimentally appealing. However, whereas it is well-known that cortical networks exhibit a rich repertoire of activity patterns at different stages during in vitro maturation, dynamical activity patterns through the entire neural development still remains unclear. Here we show that a series of metastable network states emerged in the developing and ``aging'' process of hippocampal networks cultured from dissociated rat neurons. The unidirectional sequence of state transitions could be only observed in networks showing power-law scaling of distributed neuronal avalanches. Our data suggest that self-organized criticality may guide spontaneous activity into a sequential succession of homeostatically-regulated transient patterns during development, which may help to predict the tendency of neural development at early ages in the future.

Predictive Coding of Dynamical Variables in Balanced Spiking Networks

PubMed Central

Boerlin, Martin; Machens, Christian K.; Denève, Sophie

2013-01-01

Two observations about the cortex have puzzled neuroscientists for a long time. First, neural responses are highly variable. Second, the level of excitation and inhibition received by each neuron is tightly balanced at all times. Here, we demonstrate that both properties are necessary consequences of neural networks that represent information efficiently in their spikes. We illustrate this insight with spiking networks that represent dynamical variables. Our approach is based on two assumptions: We assume that information about dynamical variables can be read out linearly from neural spike trains, and we assume that neurons only fire a spike if that improves the representation of the dynamical variables. Based on these assumptions, we derive a network of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons that is able to implement arbitrary linear dynamical systems. We show that the membrane voltage of the neurons is equivalent to a prediction error about a common population-level signal. Among other things, our approach allows us to construct an integrator network of spiking neurons that is robust against many perturbations. Most importantly, neural variability in our networks cannot be equated to noise. Despite exhibiting the same single unit properties as widely used population code models (e.g. tuning curves, Poisson distributed spike trains), balanced networks are orders of magnitudes more reliable. Our approach suggests that spikes do matter when considering how the brain computes, and that the reliability of cortical representations could have been strongly underestimated. PMID:24244113

Molecular inspired models for prediction and control of directional FSO/RF wireless networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llorca, Jaime; Milner, Stuart D.; Davis, Christopher C.

2010-08-01

Directional wireless networks using FSO and RF transmissions provide wireless backbone support for mobile communications in dynamic environments. The heterogeneous and dynamic nature of such networks challenges their robustness and requires self-organization mechanisms to assure end-to-end broadband connectivity. We developed a framework based on the definition of a potential energy function to characterize robustness in communication networks and the study of first and second order variations of the potential energy to provide prediction and control strategies for network performance optimization. In this paper, we present non-convex molecular potentials such as the Morse Potential, used to describe the potential energy of bonds within molecules, for the characterization of communication links in the presence of physical constraints such as the power available at the network nodes. The inclusion of the Morse Potential translates into adaptive control strategies where forces on network nodes drive the release, retention or reconfiguration of communication links for network performance optimization. Simulation results show the effectiveness of our self-organized control mechanism, where the physical topology reorganizes to maximize the number of source to destination communicating pairs. Molecular Normal Mode Analysis (NMA) techniques for assessing network performance degradation in dynamic networks are also presented. Preliminary results show correlation between peaks in the eigenvalues of the Hessian of the network potential and network degradation.

Collective stochastic coherence in recurrent neuronal networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sancristóbal, Belén; Rebollo, Beatriz; Boada, Pol; Sanchez-Vives, Maria V.; Garcia-Ojalvo, Jordi

2016-09-01

Recurrent networks of dynamic elements frequently exhibit emergent collective oscillations, which can show substantial regularity even when the individual elements are considerably noisy. How noise-induced dynamics at the local level coexists with regular oscillations at the global level is still unclear. Here we show that a combination of stochastic recurrence-based initiation with deterministic refractoriness in an excitable network can reconcile these two features, leading to maximum collective coherence for an intermediate noise level. We report this behaviour in the slow oscillation regime exhibited by a cerebral cortex network under dynamical conditions resembling slow-wave sleep and anaesthesia. Computational analysis of a biologically realistic network model reveals that an intermediate level of background noise leads to quasi-regular dynamics. We verify this prediction experimentally in cortical slices subject to varying amounts of extracellular potassium, which modulates neuronal excitability and thus synaptic noise. The model also predicts that this effectively regular state should exhibit noise-induced memory of the spatial propagation profile of the collective oscillations, which is also verified experimentally. Taken together, these results allow us to construe the high regularity observed experimentally in the brain as an instance of collective stochastic coherence.

Dynamic Network Model for Smart City Data-Loss Resilience Case Study: City-to-City Network for Crime Analytics

PubMed Central

Kotevska, Olivera; Kusne, A. Gilad; Samarov, Daniel V.; Lbath, Ahmed; Battou, Abdella

2017-01-01

Today’s cities generate tremendous amounts of data, thanks to a boom in affordable smart devices and sensors. The resulting big data creates opportunities to develop diverse sets of context-aware services and systems, ensuring smart city services are optimized to the dynamic city environment. Critical resources in these smart cities will be more rapidly deployed to regions in need, and those regions predicted to have an imminent or prospective need. For example, crime data analytics may be used to optimize the distribution of police, medical, and emergency services. However, as smart city services become dependent on data, they also become susceptible to disruptions in data streams, such as data loss due to signal quality reduction or due to power loss during data collection. This paper presents a dynamic network model for improving service resilience to data loss. The network model identifies statistically significant shared temporal trends across multivariate spatiotemporal data streams and utilizes these trends to improve data prediction performance in the case of data loss. Dynamics also allow the system to respond to changes in the data streams such as the loss or addition of new information flows. The network model is demonstrated by city-based crime rates reported in Montgomery County, MD, USA. A resilient network is developed utilizing shared temporal trends between cities to provide improved crime rate prediction and robustness to data loss, compared with the use of single city-based auto-regression. A maximum improvement in performance of 7.8% for Silver Spring is found and an average improvement of 5.6% among cities with high crime rates. The model also correctly identifies all the optimal network connections, according to prediction error minimization. City-to-city distance is designated as a predictor of shared temporal trends in crime and weather is shown to be a strong predictor of crime in Montgomery County. PMID:29250476

Dynamic Network Model for Smart City Data-Loss Resilience Case Study: City-to-City Network for Crime Analytics.

PubMed

Kotevska, Olivera; Kusne, A Gilad; Samarov, Daniel V; Lbath, Ahmed; Battou, Abdella

2017-01-01

Today's cities generate tremendous amounts of data, thanks to a boom in affordable smart devices and sensors. The resulting big data creates opportunities to develop diverse sets of context-aware services and systems, ensuring smart city services are optimized to the dynamic city environment. Critical resources in these smart cities will be more rapidly deployed to regions in need, and those regions predicted to have an imminent or prospective need. For example, crime data analytics may be used to optimize the distribution of police, medical, and emergency services. However, as smart city services become dependent on data, they also become susceptible to disruptions in data streams, such as data loss due to signal quality reduction or due to power loss during data collection. This paper presents a dynamic network model for improving service resilience to data loss. The network model identifies statistically significant shared temporal trends across multivariate spatiotemporal data streams and utilizes these trends to improve data prediction performance in the case of data loss. Dynamics also allow the system to respond to changes in the data streams such as the loss or addition of new information flows. The network model is demonstrated by city-based crime rates reported in Montgomery County, MD, USA. A resilient network is developed utilizing shared temporal trends between cities to provide improved crime rate prediction and robustness to data loss, compared with the use of single city-based auto-regression. A maximum improvement in performance of 7.8% for Silver Spring is found and an average improvement of 5.6% among cities with high crime rates. The model also correctly identifies all the optimal network connections, according to prediction error minimization. City-to-city distance is designated as a predictor of shared temporal trends in crime and weather is shown to be a strong predictor of crime in Montgomery County.

Modeling Temporal Behavior in Large Networks: A Dynamic Mixed-Membership Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rossi, R; Gallagher, B; Neville, J

Given a large time-evolving network, how can we model and characterize the temporal behaviors of individual nodes (and network states)? How can we model the behavioral transition patterns of nodes? We propose a temporal behavior model that captures the 'roles' of nodes in the graph and how they evolve over time. The proposed dynamic behavioral mixed-membership model (DBMM) is scalable, fully automatic (no user-defined parameters), non-parametric/data-driven (no specific functional form or parameterization), interpretable (identifies explainable patterns), and flexible (applicable to dynamic and streaming networks). Moreover, the interpretable behavioral roles are generalizable, computationally efficient, and natively supports attributes. We applied ourmore » model for (a) identifying patterns and trends of nodes and network states based on the temporal behavior, (b) predicting future structural changes, and (c) detecting unusual temporal behavior transitions. We use eight large real-world datasets from different time-evolving settings (dynamic and streaming). In particular, we model the evolving mixed-memberships and the corresponding behavioral transitions of Twitter, Facebook, IP-Traces, Email (University), Internet AS, Enron, Reality, and IMDB. The experiments demonstrate the scalability, flexibility, and effectiveness of our model for identifying interesting patterns, detecting unusual structural transitions, and predicting the future structural changes of the network and individual nodes.« less

Dynamic Communicability Predicts Infectiousness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantzaris, Alexander V.; Higham, Desmond J.

Using real, time-dependent social interaction data, we look at correlations between some recently proposed dynamic centrality measures and summaries from large-scale epidemic simulations. The evolving network arises from email exchanges. The centrality measures, which are relatively inexpensive to compute, assign rankings to individual nodes based on their ability to broadcast information over the dynamic topology. We compare these with node rankings based on infectiousness that arise when a full stochastic SI simulation is performed over the dynamic network. More precisely, we look at the proportion of the network that a node is able to infect over a fixed time period, and the length of time that it takes for a node to infect half the network. We find that the dynamic centrality measures are an excellent, and inexpensive, proxy for the full simulation-based measures.

Financial time series prediction using spiking neural networks.

PubMed

Reid, David; Hussain, Abir Jaafar; Tawfik, Hissam

2014-01-01

In this paper a novel application of a particular type of spiking neural network, a Polychronous Spiking Network, was used for financial time series prediction. It is argued that the inherent temporal capabilities of this type of network are suited to non-stationary data such as this. The performance of the spiking neural network was benchmarked against three systems: two "traditional", rate-encoded, neural networks; a Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network and a Dynamic Ridge Polynomial neural network, and a standard Linear Predictor Coefficients model. For this comparison three non-stationary and noisy time series were used: IBM stock data; US/Euro exchange rate data, and the price of Brent crude oil. The experiments demonstrated favourable prediction results for the Spiking Neural Network in terms of Annualised Return and prediction error for 5-Step ahead predictions. These results were also supported by other relevant metrics such as Maximum Drawdown and Signal-To-Noise ratio. This work demonstrated the applicability of the Polychronous Spiking Network to financial data forecasting and this in turn indicates the potential of using such networks over traditional systems in difficult to manage non-stationary environments.

Integration of structural dynamics and molecular evolution via protein interaction networks: a new era in genomic medicine.

PubMed

Kumar, Avishek; Butler, Brandon M; Kumar, Sudhir; Ozkan, S Banu

2015-12-01

Sequencing technologies are revealing many new non-synonymous single nucleotide variants (nsSNVs) in each personal exome. To assess their functional impacts, comparative genomics is frequently employed to predict if they are benign or not. However, evolutionary analysis alone is insufficient, because it misdiagnoses many disease-associated nsSNVs, such as those at positions involved in protein interfaces, and because evolutionary predictions do not provide mechanistic insights into functional change or loss. Structural analyses can aid in overcoming both of these problems by incorporating conformational dynamics and allostery in nSNV diagnosis. Finally, protein-protein interaction networks using systems-level methodologies shed light onto disease etiology and pathogenesis. Bridging these network approaches with structurally resolved protein interactions and dynamics will advance genomic medicine. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ongoing activity in temporally coherent networks predicts intra-subject fluctuation of response time to sporadic executive control demands.

PubMed

Nozawa, Takayuki; Sugiura, Motoaki; Yokoyama, Ryoichi; Ihara, Mizuki; Kotozaki, Yuka; Miyauchi, Carlos Makoto; Kanno, Akitake; Kawashima, Ryuta

2014-01-01

Can ongoing fMRI BOLD signals predict fluctuations in swiftness of a person's response to sporadic cognitive demands? This is an important issue because it clarifies whether intrinsic brain dynamics, for which spatio-temporal patterns are expressed as temporally coherent networks (TCNs), have effects not only on sensory or motor processes, but also on cognitive processes. Predictivity has been affirmed, although to a limited extent. Expecting a predictive effect on executive performance for a wider range of TCNs constituting the cingulo-opercular, fronto-parietal, and default mode networks, we conducted an fMRI study using a version of the color-word Stroop task that was specifically designed to put a higher load on executive control, with the aim of making its fluctuations more detectable. We explored the relationships between the fluctuations in ongoing pre-trial activity in TCNs and the task response time (RT). The results revealed the existence of TCNs in which fluctuations in activity several seconds before the onset of the trial predicted RT fluctuations for the subsequent trial. These TCNs were distributed in the cingulo-opercular and fronto-parietal networks, as well as in perceptual and motor networks. Our results suggest that intrinsic brain dynamics in these networks constitute "cognitive readiness," which plays an active role especially in situations where information for anticipatory attention control is unavailable. Fluctuations in these networks lead to fluctuations in executive control performance.

Interfacial welding of dynamic covalent network polymers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Kai; Shi, Qian; Li, Hao; Jabour, John; Yang, Hua; Dunn, Martin L.; Wang, Tiejun; Qi, H. Jerry

2016-09-01

Dynamic covalent network (or covalent adaptable network) polymers can rearrange their macromolecular chain network by bond exchange reactions (BERs) where an active unit replaces a unit in an existing bond to form a new bond. Such macromolecular events, when they occur in large amounts, can attribute to unusual properties that are not seen in conventional covalent network polymers, such as shape reforming and surface welding; the latter further enables the important attributes of material malleability and powder-based reprocessing. In this paper, a multiscale modeling framework is developed to study the surface welding of thermally induced dynamic covalent network polymers. At the macromolecular network level, a lattice model is developed to describe the chain density evolution across the interface and its connection to bulk stress relaxation due to BERs. The chain density evolution rule is then fed into a continuum level interfacial model that takes into account surface roughness and applied pressure to predict the effective elastic modulus and interfacial fracture energy of welded polymers. The model yields particularly accessible results where the moduli and interfacial strength of the welded samples as a function of temperature and pressure can be predicted with four parameters, three of which can be measured directly. The model identifies the dependency of surface welding efficiency on the applied thermal and mechanical fields: the pressure will affect the real contact area under the consideration of surface roughness of dynamic covalent network polymers; the chain density increment on the real contact area of interface is only dependent on the welding time and temperature. The modeling approach shows good agreement with experiments and can be extended to other types of dynamic covalent network polymers using different stimuli for BERs, such as light and moisture etc.

Small-time Scale Network Traffic Prediction Based on Complex-valued Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Bin

2017-07-01

Accurate models play an important role in capturing the significant characteristics of the network traffic, analyzing the network dynamic, and improving the forecasting accuracy for system dynamics. In this study, complex-valued neural network (CVNN) model is proposed to further improve the accuracy of small-time scale network traffic forecasting. Artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is proposed to optimize the complex-valued and real-valued parameters of CVNN model. Small-scale traffic measurements data namely the TCP traffic data is used to test the performance of CVNN model. Experimental results reveal that CVNN model forecasts the small-time scale network traffic measurement data very accurately

A general stochastic model for studying time evolution of transition networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Choujun; Tse, Chi K.; Small, Michael

2016-12-01

We consider a class of complex networks whose nodes assume one of several possible states at any time and may change their states from time to time. Such networks represent practical networks of rumor spreading, disease spreading, language evolution, and so on. Here, we derive a model describing the dynamics of this kind of network and a simulation algorithm for studying the network evolutionary behavior. This model, derived at a microscopic level, can reveal the transition dynamics of every node. A numerical simulation is taken as an ;experiment; or ;realization; of the model. We use this model to study the disease propagation dynamics in four different prototypical networks, namely, the regular nearest-neighbor (RN) network, the classical Erdös-Renyí (ER) random graph, the Watts-Strogátz small-world (SW) network, and the Barabási-Albert (BA) scalefree network. We find that the disease propagation dynamics in these four networks generally have different properties but they do share some common features. Furthermore, we utilize the transition network model to predict user growth in the Facebook network. Simulation shows that our model agrees with the historical data. The study can provide a useful tool for a more thorough understanding of the dynamics networks.

Discrete dynamic modeling of cellular signaling networks.

PubMed

Albert, Réka; Wang, Rui-Sheng

2009-01-01

Understanding signal transduction in cellular systems is a central issue in systems biology. Numerous experiments from different laboratories generate an abundance of individual components and causal interactions mediating environmental and developmental signals. However, for many signal transduction systems there is insufficient information on the overall structure and the molecular mechanisms involved in the signaling network. Moreover, lack of kinetic and temporal information makes it difficult to construct quantitative models of signal transduction pathways. Discrete dynamic modeling, combined with network analysis, provides an effective way to integrate fragmentary knowledge of regulatory interactions into a predictive mathematical model which is able to describe the time evolution of the system without the requirement for kinetic parameters. This chapter introduces the fundamental concepts of discrete dynamic modeling, particularly focusing on Boolean dynamic models. We describe this method step-by-step in the context of cellular signaling networks. Several variants of Boolean dynamic models including threshold Boolean networks and piecewise linear systems are also covered, followed by two examples of successful application of discrete dynamic modeling in cell biology.

Predicting the global spread range via small subnetworks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Jiachen; Dong, Junyou; Ma, Xiao; Feng, Ling; Hu, Yanqing

2017-04-01

Modern online social network platforms are replacing traditional media due to their effectiveness in both spreading information and communicating opinions. One of the key problems in these online platforms is to predict the global spread range of any given information. Due to its gigantic size as well as time-varying dynamics, an online social network's global structure, however, is usually inaccessible to most researchers. Thus, it raises the very important issue of how to use solely small subnetworks to predict the global influence. In this paper, based on percolation theory, we show that the global spread range can be predicted well from only two small subnetworks. We test our methods in an artificial network and three empirical online social networks, such as the full Sina Weibo network with 99546027 nodes.

Controllability of flow-conservation networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Chen; Zeng, An; Jiang, Rui; Yuan, Zhengzhong; Wang, Wen-Xu

2017-07-01

The ultimate goal of exploring complex networks is to control them. As such, controllability of complex networks has been intensively investigated. Despite recent advances in studying the impact of a network's topology on its controllability, a comprehensive understanding of the synergistic impact of network topology and dynamics on controllability is still lacking. Here, we explore the controllability of flow-conservation networks, trying to identify the minimal number of driver nodes that can guide the network to any desirable state. We develop a method to analyze the controllability on flow-conservation networks based on exact controllability theory, transforming the original analysis on adjacency matrix to Laplacian matrix. With this framework, we systematically investigate the impact of some key factors of networks, including link density, link directionality, and link polarity, on the controllability of these networks. We also obtain the analytical equations by investigating the network's structural properties approximatively and design the efficient tools. Finally, we consider some real networks with flow dynamics, finding that their controllability is significantly different from that predicted by only considering the topology. These findings deepen our understanding of network controllability with flow-conservation dynamics and provide a general framework to incorporate real dynamics in the analysis of network controllability.

Graph distance for complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimada, Yutaka; Hirata, Yoshito; Ikeguchi, Tohru; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2016-10-01

Networks are widely used as a tool for describing diverse real complex systems and have been successfully applied to many fields. The distance between networks is one of the most fundamental concepts for properly classifying real networks, detecting temporal changes in network structures, and effectively predicting their temporal evolution. However, this distance has rarely been discussed in the theory of complex networks. Here, we propose a graph distance between networks based on a Laplacian matrix that reflects the structural and dynamical properties of networked dynamical systems. Our results indicate that the Laplacian-based graph distance effectively quantifies the structural difference between complex networks. We further show that our approach successfully elucidates the temporal properties underlying temporal networks observed in the context of face-to-face human interactions.

Inferring dynamic gene regulatory networks in cardiac differentiation through the integration of multi-dimensional data.

PubMed

Gong, Wuming; Koyano-Nakagawa, Naoko; Li, Tongbin; Garry, Daniel J

2015-03-07

Decoding the temporal control of gene expression patterns is key to the understanding of the complex mechanisms that govern developmental decisions during heart development. High-throughput methods have been employed to systematically study the dynamic and coordinated nature of cardiac differentiation at the global level with multiple dimensions. Therefore, there is a pressing need to develop a systems approach to integrate these data from individual studies and infer the dynamic regulatory networks in an unbiased fashion. We developed a two-step strategy to integrate data from (1) temporal RNA-seq, (2) temporal histone modification ChIP-seq, (3) transcription factor (TF) ChIP-seq and (4) gene perturbation experiments to reconstruct the dynamic network during heart development. First, we trained a logistic regression model to predict the probability (LR score) of any base being bound by 543 TFs with known positional weight matrices. Second, four dimensions of data were combined using a time-varying dynamic Bayesian network model to infer the dynamic networks at four developmental stages in the mouse [mouse embryonic stem cells (ESCs), mesoderm (MES), cardiac progenitors (CP) and cardiomyocytes (CM)]. Our method not only infers the time-varying networks between different stages of heart development, but it also identifies the TF binding sites associated with promoter or enhancers of downstream genes. The LR scores of experimentally verified ESCs and heart enhancers were significantly higher than random regions (p <10(-100)), suggesting that a high LR score is a reliable indicator for functional TF binding sites. Our network inference model identified a region with an elevated LR score approximately -9400 bp upstream of the transcriptional start site of Nkx2-5, which overlapped with a previously reported enhancer region (-9435 to -8922 bp). TFs such as Tead1, Gata4, Msx2, and Tgif1 were predicted to bind to this region and participate in the regulation of Nkx2-5 gene expression. Our model also predicted the key regulatory networks for the ESC-MES, MES-CP and CP-CM transitions. We report a novel method to systematically integrate multi-dimensional -omics data and reconstruct the gene regulatory networks. This method will allow one to rapidly determine the cis-modules that regulate key genes during cardiac differentiation.

Mouse Social Network Dynamics and Community Structure are Associated with Plasticity-Related Brain Gene Expression

PubMed Central

Williamson, Cait M.; Franks, Becca; Curley, James P.

2016-01-01

Laboratory studies of social behavior have typically focused on dyadic interactions occurring within a limited spatiotemporal context. However, this strategy prevents analyses of the dynamics of group social behavior and constrains identification of the biological pathways mediating individual differences in behavior. In the current study, we aimed to identify the spatiotemporal dynamics and hierarchical organization of a large social network of male mice. We also sought to determine if standard assays of social and exploratory behavior are predictive of social behavior in this social network and whether individual network position was associated with the mRNA expression of two plasticity-related genes, DNA methyltransferase 1 and 3a. Mice were observed to form a hierarchically organized social network and self-organized into two separate social network communities. Members of both communities exhibited distinct patterns of socio-spatial organization within the vivaria that was not limited to only agonistic interactions. We further established that exploratory and social behaviors in standard behavioral assays conducted prior to placing the mice into the large group was predictive of initial network position and behavior but were not associated with final social network position. Finally, we determined that social network position is associated with variation in mRNA levels of two neural plasticity genes, DNMT1 and DNMT3a, in the hippocampus but not the mPOA. This work demonstrates the importance of understanding the role of social context and complex social dynamics in determining the relationship between individual differences in social behavior and brain gene expression. PMID:27540359

Predicting Node Degree Centrality with the Node Prominence Profile

PubMed Central

Yang, Yang; Dong, Yuxiao; Chawla, Nitesh V.

2014-01-01

Centrality of a node measures its relative importance within a network. There are a number of applications of centrality, including inferring the influence or success of an individual in a social network, and the resulting social network dynamics. While we can compute the centrality of any node in a given network snapshot, a number of applications are also interested in knowing the potential importance of an individual in the future. However, current centrality is not necessarily an effective predictor of future centrality. While there are different measures of centrality, we focus on degree centrality in this paper. We develop a method that reconciles preferential attachment and triadic closure to capture a node's prominence profile. We show that the proposed node prominence profile method is an effective predictor of degree centrality. Notably, our analysis reveals that individuals in the early stage of evolution display a distinctive and robust signature in degree centrality trend, adequately predicted by their prominence profile. We evaluate our work across four real-world social networks. Our findings have important implications for the applications that require prediction of a node's future degree centrality, as well as the study of social network dynamics. PMID:25429797

Dynamical influence processes on networks: general theory and applications to social contagion.

PubMed

Harris, Kameron Decker; Danforth, Christopher M; Dodds, Peter Sheridan

2013-08-01

We study binary state dynamics on a network where each node acts in response to the average state of its neighborhood. By allowing varying amounts of stochasticity in both the network and node responses, we find different outcomes in random and deterministic versions of the model. In the limit of a large, dense network, however, we show that these dynamics coincide. We construct a general mean-field theory for random networks and show this predicts that the dynamics on the network is a smoothed version of the average response function dynamics. Thus, the behavior of the system can range from steady state to chaotic depending on the response functions, network connectivity, and update synchronicity. As a specific example, we model the competing tendencies of imitation and nonconformity by incorporating an off-threshold into standard threshold models of social contagion. In this way, we attempt to capture important aspects of fashions and societal trends. We compare our theory to extensive simulations of this "limited imitation contagion" model on Poisson random graphs, finding agreement between the mean-field theory and stochastic simulations.

Dynamic network expansion, contraction, and connectivity in the river corridor of mountain stream network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, A. S.; Schmadel, N.; Wondzell, S. M.

2017-12-01

River networks are broadly recognized to expand and contract in response to hydrologic forcing. Additionally, the individual controls on river corridor dynamics of hydrologic forcing and geologic setting are well recognized. However, we currently lack tools to integrate our understanding of process dynamics in the river corridor and make predictions at the scale of river networks. In this study, we develop a perceptual model of the river corridor in mountain river networks, translate this into a reduced-complexity mechanistic model, and implement the model in a well-studied headwater catchment. We found that the river network was most sensitive to hydrologic dynamics under the lowest discharges (Qgauge < 1 L s-1). We also demonstrate a discharge-dependence on the dominant controls on network expansion, contraction, and river corridor exchange. Finally, we suggest this parsimonious model will be useful to managers of water resources who need to estimate connectivity and flow initiation location along the river corridor over broad, unstudied catchments.

Data collapse and critical dynamics in neuronal avalanche data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, Thomas; Friedman, Nir; Dahmen, Karin; Beggs, John; Deville, Lee; Ito, Shinya

2012-02-01

The tasks of information processing, computation, and response to stimuli require neural computation to be remarkably flexible and diverse. To optimally satisfy the demands of neural computation, neuronal networks have been hypothesized to operate near a non-equilibrium critical point. In spite of their importance for neural dynamics, experimental evidence for critical dynamics has been primarily limited to power law statistics that can also emerge from non-critical mechanisms. By tracking the firing of large numbers of synaptically connected cortical neurons and comparing the resulting data to the predictions of critical phenomena, we show that cortical tissues in vitro can function near criticality. Among the most striking predictions of critical dynamics is that the mean temporal profiles of avalanches of widely varying durations are quantitatively described by a single universal scaling function (data collapse). We show for the first time that this prediction is confirmed in neuronal networks. We also show that the data have three additional features predicted by critical phenomena: approximate power law distributions of avalanche sizes and durations, samples in subcritical and supercritical phases, and scaling laws between anomalous exponents.

Long-range correlations improve understanding of the influence of network structure on contact dynamics.

PubMed

Peyrard, N; Dieckmann, U; Franc, A

2008-05-01

Models of infectious diseases are characterized by a phase transition between extinction and persistence. A challenge in contemporary epidemiology is to understand how the geometry of a host's interaction network influences disease dynamics close to the critical point of such a transition. Here we address this challenge with the help of moment closures. Traditional moment closures, however, do not provide satisfactory predictions close to such critical points. We therefore introduce a new method for incorporating longer-range correlations into existing closures. Our method is technically simple, remains computationally tractable and significantly improves the approximation's performance. Our extended closures thus provide an innovative tool for quantifying the influence of interaction networks on spatially or socially structured disease dynamics. In particular, we examine the effects of a network's clustering coefficient, as well as of new geometrical measures, such as a network's square clustering coefficients. We compare the relative performance of different closures from the literature, with or without our long-range extension. In this way, we demonstrate that the normalized version of the Bethe approximation-extended to incorporate long-range correlations according to our method-is an especially good candidate for studying influences of network structure. Our numerical results highlight the importance of the clustering coefficient and the square clustering coefficient for predicting disease dynamics at low and intermediate values of transmission rate, and demonstrate the significance of path redundancy for disease persistence.

Impact of Noise on a Dynamical System: Prediction and Uncertainties from a Swarm-Optimized Neural Network

PubMed Central

López-Caraballo, C. H.; Lazzús, J. A.; Salfate, I.; Rojas, P.; Rivera, M.; Palma-Chilla, L.

2015-01-01

An artificial neural network (ANN) based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) was developed for the time series prediction. The hybrid ANN+PSO algorithm was applied on Mackey-Glass chaotic time series in the short-term x(t + 6). The performance prediction was evaluated and compared with other studies available in the literature. Also, we presented properties of the dynamical system via the study of chaotic behaviour obtained from the predicted time series. Next, the hybrid ANN+PSO algorithm was complemented with a Gaussian stochastic procedure (called stochastic hybrid ANN+PSO) in order to obtain a new estimator of the predictions, which also allowed us to compute the uncertainties of predictions for noisy Mackey-Glass chaotic time series. Thus, we studied the impact of noise for several cases with a white noise level (σ N) from 0.01 to 0.1. PMID:26351449

Impact of Noise on a Dynamical System: Prediction and Uncertainties from a Swarm-Optimized Neural Network.

PubMed

López-Caraballo, C H; Lazzús, J A; Salfate, I; Rojas, P; Rivera, M; Palma-Chilla, L

2015-01-01

An artificial neural network (ANN) based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) was developed for the time series prediction. The hybrid ANN+PSO algorithm was applied on Mackey-Glass chaotic time series in the short-term x(t + 6). The performance prediction was evaluated and compared with other studies available in the literature. Also, we presented properties of the dynamical system via the study of chaotic behaviour obtained from the predicted time series. Next, the hybrid ANN+PSO algorithm was complemented with a Gaussian stochastic procedure (called stochastic hybrid ANN+PSO) in order to obtain a new estimator of the predictions, which also allowed us to compute the uncertainties of predictions for noisy Mackey-Glass chaotic time series. Thus, we studied the impact of noise for several cases with a white noise level (σ(N)) from 0.01 to 0.1.

Time-Ordered Networks Reveal Limitations to Information Flow in Ant Colonies

PubMed Central

Blonder, Benjamin; Dornhaus, Anna

2011-01-01

Background An important function of many complex networks is to inhibit or promote the transmission of disease, resources, or information between individuals. However, little is known about how the temporal dynamics of individual-level interactions affect these networks and constrain their function. Ant colonies are a model comparative system for understanding general principles linking individual-level interactions to network-level functions because interactions among individuals enable integration of multiple sources of information to collectively make decisions, and allocate tasks and resources. Methodology/Findings Here we show how the temporal and spatial dynamics of such individual interactions provide upper bounds to rates of colony-level information flow in the ant Temnothorax rugatulus. We develop a general framework for analyzing dynamic networks and a mathematical model that predicts how information flow scales with individual mobility and group size. Conclusions/Significance Using thousands of time-stamped interactions between uniquely marked ants in four colonies of a range of sizes, we demonstrate that observed maximum rates of information flow are always slower than predicted, and are constrained by regulation of individual mobility and contact rate. By accounting for the ordering and timing of interactions, we can resolve important difficulties with network sampling frequency and duration, enabling a broader understanding of interaction network functioning across systems and scales. PMID:21625450

Prediction of Aerodynamic Coefficient using Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Network for Sparse Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rajkumar, T.; Bardina, Jorge; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Wind tunnels use scale models to characterize aerodynamic coefficients, Wind tunnel testing can be slow and costly due to high personnel overhead and intensive power utilization. Although manual curve fitting can be done, it is highly efficient to use a neural network to define the complex relationship between variables. Numerical simulation of complex vehicles on the wide range of conditions required for flight simulation requires static and dynamic data. Static data at low Mach numbers and angles of attack may be obtained with simpler Euler codes. Static data of stalled vehicles where zones of flow separation are usually present at higher angles of attack require Navier-Stokes simulations which are costly due to the large processing time required to attain convergence. Preliminary dynamic data may be obtained with simpler methods based on correlations and vortex methods; however, accurate prediction of the dynamic coefficients requires complex and costly numerical simulations. A reliable and fast method of predicting complex aerodynamic coefficients for flight simulation I'S presented using a neural network. The training data for the neural network are derived from numerical simulations and wind-tunnel experiments. The aerodynamic coefficients are modeled as functions of the flow characteristics and the control surfaces of the vehicle. The basic coefficients of lift, drag and pitching moment are expressed as functions of angles of attack and Mach number. The modeled and training aerodynamic coefficients show good agreement. This method shows excellent potential for rapid development of aerodynamic models for flight simulation. Genetic Algorithms (GA) are used to optimize a previously built Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that reliably predicts aerodynamic coefficients. Results indicate that the GA provided an efficient method of optimizing the ANN model to predict aerodynamic coefficients. The reliability of the ANN using the GA includes prediction of aerodynamic coefficients to an accuracy of 110% . In our problem, we would like to get an optimized neural network architecture and minimum data set. This has been accomplished within 500 training cycles of a neural network. After removing training pairs (outliers), the GA has produced much better results. The neural network constructed is a feed forward neural network with a back propagation learning mechanism. The main goal has been to free the network design process from constraints of human biases, and to discover better forms of neural network architectures. The automation of the network architecture search by genetic algorithms seems to have been the best way to achieve this goal.

Algorithm for Training a Recurrent Multilayer Perceptron

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parlos, Alexander G.; Rais, Omar T.; Menon, Sunil K.; Atiya, Amir F.

2004-01-01

An improved algorithm has been devised for training a recurrent multilayer perceptron (RMLP) for optimal performance in predicting the behavior of a complex, dynamic, and noisy system multiple time steps into the future. [An RMLP is a computational neural network with self-feedback and cross-talk (both delayed by one time step) among neurons in hidden layers]. Like other neural-network-training algorithms, this algorithm adjusts network biases and synaptic-connection weights according to a gradient-descent rule. The distinguishing feature of this algorithm is a combination of global feedback (the use of predictions as well as the current output value in computing the gradient at each time step) and recursiveness. The recursive aspect of the algorithm lies in the inclusion of the gradient of predictions at each time step with respect to the predictions at the preceding time step; this recursion enables the RMLP to learn the dynamics. It has been conjectured that carrying the recursion to even earlier time steps would enable the RMLP to represent a noisier, more complex system.

Dynamic Connectivity between Brain Networks Supports Working Memory: Relationships to Dopamine Release and Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Cassidy, Clifford M; Van Snellenberg, Jared X; Benavides, Caridad; Slifstein, Mark; Wang, Zhishun; Moore, Holly; Abi-Dargham, Anissa; Horga, Guillermo

2016-04-13

Connectivity between brain networks may adapt flexibly to cognitive demand, a process that could underlie adaptive behaviors and cognitive deficits, such as those observed in neuropsychiatric conditions like schizophrenia. Dopamine signaling is critical for working memory but its influence on internetwork connectivity is relatively unknown. We addressed these questions in healthy humans using functional magnetic resonance imaging (during ann-back working-memory task) and positron emission tomography using the radiotracer [(11)C]FLB457 before and after amphetamine to measure the capacity for dopamine release in extrastriatal brain regions. Brain networks were defined by spatial independent component analysis (ICA) and working-memory-load-dependent connectivity between task-relevant pairs of networks was determined via a modified psychophysiological interaction analysis. For most pairs of task-relevant networks, connectivity significantly changed as a function of working-memory load. Moreover, load-dependent changes in connectivity between left and right frontoparietal networks (Δ connectivity lFPN-rFPN) predicted interindividual differences in task performance more accurately than other fMRI and PET imaging measures. Δ Connectivity lFPN-rFPN was not related to cortical dopamine release capacity. A second study in unmedicated patients with schizophrenia showed no abnormalities in load-dependent connectivity but showed a weaker relationship between Δ connectivity lFPN-rFPN and working memory performance in patients compared with matched healthy individuals. Poor working memory performance in patients was, in contrast, related to deficient cortical dopamine release. Our findings indicate that interactions between brain networks dynamically adapt to fluctuating environmental demands. These dynamic adaptations underlie successful working memory performance in healthy individuals and are not well predicted by amphetamine-induced dopamine release capacity. It is unclear how communication between brain networks responds to changing environmental demands during complex cognitive processes. Also, unknown in regard to these network dynamics is the role of neuromodulators, such as dopamine, and whether their dysregulation could underlie cognitive deficits in neuropsychiatric illness. We found that connectivity between brain networks changes with working-memory load and greater increases predict better working memory performance; however, it was not related to capacity for dopamine release in the cortex. Patients with schizophrenia did show dynamic internetwork connectivity; however, this was more weakly associated with successful performance in patients compared with healthy individuals. Our findings indicate that dynamic interactions between brain networks may support the type of flexible adaptations essential to goal-directed behavior. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/364378-12$15.00/0.

Dynamic Connectivity between Brain Networks Supports Working Memory: Relationships to Dopamine Release and Schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Van Snellenberg, Jared X.; Benavides, Caridad; Slifstein, Mark; Wang, Zhishun; Moore, Holly; Abi-Dargham, Anissa

2016-01-01

Connectivity between brain networks may adapt flexibly to cognitive demand, a process that could underlie adaptive behaviors and cognitive deficits, such as those observed in neuropsychiatric conditions like schizophrenia. Dopamine signaling is critical for working memory but its influence on internetwork connectivity is relatively unknown. We addressed these questions in healthy humans using functional magnetic resonance imaging (during an n-back working-memory task) and positron emission tomography using the radiotracer [11C]FLB457 before and after amphetamine to measure the capacity for dopamine release in extrastriatal brain regions. Brain networks were defined by spatial independent component analysis (ICA) and working-memory-load-dependent connectivity between task-relevant pairs of networks was determined via a modified psychophysiological interaction analysis. For most pairs of task-relevant networks, connectivity significantly changed as a function of working-memory load. Moreover, load-dependent changes in connectivity between left and right frontoparietal networks (Δ connectivity lFPN-rFPN) predicted interindividual differences in task performance more accurately than other fMRI and PET imaging measures. Δ Connectivity lFPN-rFPN was not related to cortical dopamine release capacity. A second study in unmedicated patients with schizophrenia showed no abnormalities in load-dependent connectivity but showed a weaker relationship between Δ connectivity lFPN-rFPN and working memory performance in patients compared with matched healthy individuals. Poor working memory performance in patients was, in contrast, related to deficient cortical dopamine release. Our findings indicate that interactions between brain networks dynamically adapt to fluctuating environmental demands. These dynamic adaptations underlie successful working memory performance in healthy individuals and are not well predicted by amphetamine-induced dopamine release capacity. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT It is unclear how communication between brain networks responds to changing environmental demands during complex cognitive processes. Also, unknown in regard to these network dynamics is the role of neuromodulators, such as dopamine, and whether their dysregulation could underlie cognitive deficits in neuropsychiatric illness. We found that connectivity between brain networks changes with working-memory load and greater increases predict better working memory performance; however, it was not related to capacity for dopamine release in the cortex. Patients with schizophrenia did show dynamic internetwork connectivity; however, this was more weakly associated with successful performance in patients compared with healthy individuals. Our findings indicate that dynamic interactions between brain networks may support the type of flexible adaptations essential to goal-directed behavior. PMID:27076432

Communication Dynamics in Finite Capacity Social Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haerter, Jan O.; Jamtveit, Bjørn; Mathiesen, Joachim

2012-10-01

In communication networks, structure and dynamics are tightly coupled. The structure controls the flow of information and is itself shaped by the dynamical process of information exchanged between nodes. In order to reconcile structure and dynamics, a generic model, based on the local interaction between nodes, is considered for the communication in large social networks. In agreement with data from a large human organization, we show that the flow is non-Markovian and controlled by the temporal limitations of individuals. We confirm the versatility of our model by predicting simultaneously the degree-dependent node activity, the balance between information input and output of nodes, and the degree distribution. Finally, we quantify the limitations to network analysis when it is based on data sampled over a finite period of time.

Competing dynamic phases of active polymer networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freedman, Simon; Banerjee, Shiladitya; Dinner, Aaron R.

Recent experiments on in-vitro reconstituted assemblies of F-actin, myosin-II motors, and cross-linking proteins show that tuning local network properties can changes the fundamental biomechanical behavior of the system. For example, by varying cross-linker density and actin bundle rigidity, one can switch between contractile networks useful for reshaping cells, polarity sorted networks ideal for directed molecular transport, and frustrated networks with robust structural properties. To efficiently investigate the dynamic phases of actomyosin networks, we developed a coarse grained non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulation of model semiflexible filaments, molecular motors, and cross-linkers with phenomenologically defined interactions. The simulation's accuracy was verified by benchmarking the mechanical properties of its individual components and collective behavior against experimental results at the molecular and network scales. By adjusting the model's parameters, we can reproduce the qualitative phases observed in experiment and predict the protein characteristics where phase crossovers could occur in collective network dynamics. Our model provides a framework for understanding cells' multiple uses of actomyosin networks and their applicability in materials research. Supported by the Department of Defense (DoD) through the National Defense Science & Engineering Graduate Fellowship (NDSEG) Program.

Recruitment dynamics in adaptive social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shkarayev, Maxim; Shaw, Leah; Schwartz, Ira

2011-03-01

We model recruitment in social networks in the presence of birth and death processes. The recruitment is characterized by nodes changing their status to that of the recruiting class as a result of contact with recruiting nodes. The recruiting nodes may adapt their connections in order to improve recruitment capabilities, thus changing the network structure. We develop a mean-field theory describing the system dynamics. Using mean-field theory we characterize the dependence of the growth threshold of the recruiting class on the adaptation parameter. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of adaptation on the recruitment dynamics, as well as on network topology. The theoretical predictions are confirmed by the direct simulations of the full system.

Financial Time Series Prediction Using Spiking Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Reid, David; Hussain, Abir Jaafar; Tawfik, Hissam

2014-01-01

In this paper a novel application of a particular type of spiking neural network, a Polychronous Spiking Network, was used for financial time series prediction. It is argued that the inherent temporal capabilities of this type of network are suited to non-stationary data such as this. The performance of the spiking neural network was benchmarked against three systems: two “traditional”, rate-encoded, neural networks; a Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network and a Dynamic Ridge Polynomial neural network, and a standard Linear Predictor Coefficients model. For this comparison three non-stationary and noisy time series were used: IBM stock data; US/Euro exchange rate data, and the price of Brent crude oil. The experiments demonstrated favourable prediction results for the Spiking Neural Network in terms of Annualised Return and prediction error for 5-Step ahead predictions. These results were also supported by other relevant metrics such as Maximum Drawdown and Signal-To-Noise ratio. This work demonstrated the applicability of the Polychronous Spiking Network to financial data forecasting and this in turn indicates the potential of using such networks over traditional systems in difficult to manage non-stationary environments. PMID:25170618

Dynamics of embryonic stem cell differentiation inferred from single-cell transcriptomics show a series of transitions through discrete cell states

PubMed Central

Jang, Sumin; Choubey, Sandeep; Furchtgott, Leon; Zou, Ling-Nan; Doyle, Adele; Menon, Vilas; Loew, Ethan B; Krostag, Anne-Rachel; Martinez, Refugio A; Madisen, Linda; Levi, Boaz P; Ramanathan, Sharad

2017-01-01

The complexity of gene regulatory networks that lead multipotent cells to acquire different cell fates makes a quantitative understanding of differentiation challenging. Using a statistical framework to analyze single-cell transcriptomics data, we infer the gene expression dynamics of early mouse embryonic stem (mES) cell differentiation, uncovering discrete transitions across nine cell states. We validate the predicted transitions across discrete states using flow cytometry. Moreover, using live-cell microscopy, we show that individual cells undergo abrupt transitions from a naïve to primed pluripotent state. Using the inferred discrete cell states to build a probabilistic model for the underlying gene regulatory network, we further predict and experimentally verify that these states have unique response to perturbations, thus defining them functionally. Our study provides a framework to infer the dynamics of differentiation from single cell transcriptomics data and to build predictive models of the gene regulatory networks that drive the sequence of cell fate decisions during development. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.20487.001 PMID:28296635

Predicting Drug Combination Index and Simulating the Network-Regulation Dynamics by Mathematical Modeling of Drug-Targeted EGFR-ERK Signaling Pathway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Lu; Jiang, Yuyang; Chen, Yuzong

2017-01-01

Synergistic drug combinations enable enhanced therapeutics. Their discovery typically involves the measurement and assessment of drug combination index (CI), which can be facilitated by the development and applications of in-silico CI predictive tools. In this work, we developed and tested the ability of a mathematical model of drug-targeted EGFR-ERK pathway in predicting CIs and in analyzing multiple synergistic drug combinations against observations. Our mathematical model was validated against the literature reported signaling, drug response dynamics, and EGFR-MEK drug combination effect. The predicted CIs and combination therapeutic effects of the EGFR-BRaf, BRaf-MEK, FTI-MEK, and FTI-BRaf inhibitor combinations showed consistent synergism. Our results suggest that existing pathway models may be potentially extended for developing drug-targeted pathway models to predict drug combination CI values, isobolograms, and drug-response surfaces as well as to analyze the dynamics of individual and combinations of drugs. With our model, the efficacy of potential drug combinations can be predicted. Our method complements the developed in-silico methods (e.g. the chemogenomic profile and the statistically-inferenced network models) by predicting drug combination effects from the perspectives of pathway dynamics using experimental or validated molecular kinetic constants, thereby facilitating the collective prediction of drug combination effects in diverse ranges of disease systems.

A gene regulatory network model for floral transition of the shoot apex in maize and its dynamic modeling.

PubMed

Dong, Zhanshan; Danilevskaya, Olga; Abadie, Tabare; Messina, Carlos; Coles, Nathan; Cooper, Mark

2012-01-01

The transition from the vegetative to reproductive development is a critical event in the plant life cycle. The accurate prediction of flowering time in elite germplasm is important for decisions in maize breeding programs and best agronomic practices. The understanding of the genetic control of flowering time in maize has significantly advanced in the past decade. Through comparative genomics, mutant analysis, genetic analysis and QTL cloning, and transgenic approaches, more than 30 flowering time candidate genes in maize have been revealed and the relationships among these genes have been partially uncovered. Based on the knowledge of the flowering time candidate genes, a conceptual gene regulatory network model for the genetic control of flowering time in maize is proposed. To demonstrate the potential of the proposed gene regulatory network model, a first attempt was made to develop a dynamic gene network model to predict flowering time of maize genotypes varying for specific genes. The dynamic gene network model is composed of four genes and was built on the basis of gene expression dynamics of the two late flowering id1 and dlf1 mutants, the early flowering landrace Gaspe Flint and the temperate inbred B73. The model was evaluated against the phenotypic data of the id1 dlf1 double mutant and the ZMM4 overexpressed transgenic lines. The model provides a working example that leverages knowledge from model organisms for the utilization of maize genomic information to predict a whole plant trait phenotype, flowering time, of maize genotypes.

Technologies for network-centric C4ISR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunkelberger, Kirk A.

2003-07-01

Three technologies form the heart of any network-centric command, control, communication, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) system: distributed processing, reconfigurable networking, and distributed resource management. Distributed processing, enabled by automated federation, mobile code, intelligent process allocation, dynamic multiprocessing groups, check pointing, and other capabilities creates a virtual peer-to-peer computing network across the force. Reconfigurable networking, consisting of content-based information exchange, dynamic ad-hoc routing, information operations (perception management) and other component technologies forms the interconnect fabric for fault tolerant inter processor and node communication. Distributed resource management, which provides the means for distributed cooperative sensor management, foe sensor utilization, opportunistic collection, symbiotic inductive/deductive reasoning and other applications provides the canonical algorithms for network-centric enterprises and warfare. This paper introduces these three core technologies and briefly discusses a sampling of their component technologies and their individual contributions to network-centric enterprises and warfare. Based on the implied requirements, two new algorithms are defined and characterized which provide critical building blocks for network centricity: distributed asynchronous auctioning and predictive dynamic source routing. The first provides a reliable, efficient, effective approach for near-optimal assignment problems; the algorithm has been demonstrated to be a viable implementation for ad-hoc command and control, object/sensor pairing, and weapon/target assignment. The second is founded on traditional dynamic source routing (from mobile ad-hoc networking), but leverages the results of ad-hoc command and control (from the contributed auctioning algorithm) into significant increases in connection reliability through forward prediction. Emphasis is placed on the advantages gained from the closed-loop interaction of the multiple technologies in the network-centric application environment.

Extended resource allocation index for link prediction of complex network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Shuxin; Ji, Xinsheng; Liu, Caixia; Bai, Yi

2017-08-01

Recently, a number of similarity-based methods have been proposed to predict the missing links in complex network. Among these indices, the resource allocation index performs very well with lower time complexity. However, it ignores potential resources transferred by local paths between two endpoints. Motivated by the resource exchange taking places between endpoints, an extended resource allocation index is proposed. Empirical study on twelve real networks and three synthetic dynamic networks has shown that the index we proposed can achieve a good performance, compared with eight mainstream baselines.

Toxicological Tipping Points: Learning Boolean Networks from High-Content Imaging Data. (BOSC meeting)

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this work is to elucidate biological networks underlying cellular tipping points using time-course data. We discretized the high-content imaging (HCI) data and inferred Boolean networks (BNs) that could accurately predict dynamic cellular trajectories. We found t...

Dynamically induced cascading failures in power grids.

PubMed

Schäfer, Benjamin; Witthaut, Dirk; Timme, Marc; Latora, Vito

2018-05-17

Reliable functioning of infrastructure networks is essential for our modern society. Cascading failures are the cause of most large-scale network outages. Although cascading failures often exhibit dynamical transients, the modeling of cascades has so far mainly focused on the analysis of sequences of steady states. In this article, we focus on electrical transmission networks and introduce a framework that takes into account both the event-based nature of cascades and the essentials of the network dynamics. We find that transients of the order of seconds in the flows of a power grid play a crucial role in the emergence of collective behaviors. We finally propose a forecasting method to identify critical lines and components in advance or during operation. Overall, our work highlights the relevance of dynamically induced failures on the synchronization dynamics of national power grids of different European countries and provides methods to predict and model cascading failures.

Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.

PubMed

Makin, Joseph G; Dichter, Benjamin K; Sabes, Philip N

2015-11-01

Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states.

Dynamic autonomous routing technology for IP-based satellite ad hoc networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaofei; Deng, Jing; Kostas, Theresa; Rajappan, Gowri

2014-06-01

IP-based routing for military LEO/MEO satellite ad hoc networks is very challenging due to network and traffic heterogeneity, network topology and traffic dynamics. In this paper, we describe a traffic priority-aware routing scheme for such networks, namely Dynamic Autonomous Routing Technology (DART) for satellite ad hoc networks. DART has a cross-layer design, and conducts routing and resource reservation concurrently for optimal performance in the fluid but predictable satellite ad hoc networks. DART ensures end-to-end data delivery with QoS assurances by only choosing routing paths that have sufficient resources, supporting different packet priority levels. In order to do so, DART incorporates several resource management and innovative routing mechanisms, which dynamically adapt to best fit the prevailing conditions. In particular, DART integrates a resource reservation mechanism to reserve network bandwidth resources; a proactive routing mechanism to set up non-overlapping spanning trees to segregate high priority traffic flows from lower priority flows so that the high priority flows do not face contention from low priority flows; a reactive routing mechanism to arbitrate resources between various traffic priorities when needed; a predictive routing mechanism to set up routes for scheduled missions and for anticipated topology changes for QoS assurance. We present simulation results showing the performance of DART. We have conducted these simulations using the Iridium constellation and trajectories as well as realistic military communications scenarios. The simulation results demonstrate DART's ability to discriminate between high-priority and low-priority traffic flows and ensure disparate QoS requirements of these traffic flows.

Advances in dynamic modeling of colorectal cancer signaling-network regions, a path toward targeted therapies

PubMed Central

Kolch, Walter; Kholodenko, Boris N.; Ambrosi, Cristina De; Barla, Annalisa; Biganzoli, Elia M.; Nencioni, Alessio; Patrone, Franco; Ballestrero, Alberto; Zoppoli, Gabriele; Verri, Alessandro; Parodi, Silvio

2015-01-01

The interconnected network of pathways downstream of the TGFβ, WNT and EGF-families of receptor ligands play an important role in colorectal cancer pathogenesis. We studied and implemented dynamic simulations of multiple downstream pathways and described the section of the signaling network considered as a Molecular Interaction Map (MIM). Our simulations used Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs), which involved 447 reactants and their interactions. Starting from an initial “physiologic condition”, the model can be adapted to simulate individual pathologic cancer conditions implementing alterations/mutations in relevant onco-proteins. We verified some salient model predictions using the mutated colorectal cancer lines HCT116 and HT29. We measured the amount of MYC and CCND1 mRNAs and AKT and ERK phosphorylated proteins, in response to individual or combination onco-protein inhibitor treatments. Experimental and simulation results were well correlated. Recent independently published results were also predicted by our model. Even in the presence of an approximate and incomplete signaling network information, a predictive dynamic modeling seems already possible. An important long term road seems to be open and can be pursued further, by incremental steps, toward even larger and better parameterized MIMs. Personalized treatment strategies with rational associations of signaling-proteins inhibitors, could become a realistic goal. PMID:25671297

Markets on Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toroczkai, Zoltan; Anghel, Marian; Bassler, Kevin; Korniss, Gyorgy

2003-03-01

The dynamics of human, and most biological populations is characterized by competition for resources. By its own nature, this dynamics creates the group of "elites", formed by those agents who have strategies that are the most successful in the given situation, and therefore the rest of the agents will tend to follow, imitate, or interact with them, creating a social structure of leadership in the agent society. These inter-agent communications generate a complex social network with small-world character which itself forms the substrate for a second network, the action network. The latter is a highly dynamic, adaptive, directed network, defined by those inter-agent communication links on the substrate along which the passed information /prediction is acted upon by the other agents. By using the minority game for competition dynamics, here we show that when the substrate network is highly connected, the action network spontaneously develops hubs with a broad distribution of out-degrees, defining a robust leadership structure that is scale-free. Furthermore, in certain, realistic parameter ranges, facilitated by information passing on the action network, agents can spontaneously generate a high degree of cooperation making the collective almost maximally efficient.

Spectral analysis and slow spreading dynamics on complex networks.

PubMed

Odor, Géza

2013-09-01

The susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model is one of the simplest memoryless systems for describing information or epidemic spreading phenomena with competing creation and spontaneous annihilation reactions. The effect of quenched disorder on the dynamical behavior has recently been compared to quenched mean-field (QMF) approximations in scale-free networks. QMF can take into account topological heterogeneity and clustering effects of the activity in the steady state by spectral decomposition analysis of the adjacency matrix. Therefore, it can provide predictions on possible rare-region effects, thus on the occurrence of slow dynamics. I compare QMF results of SIS with simulations on various large dimensional graphs. In particular, I show that for Erdős-Rényi graphs this method predicts correctly the occurrence of rare-region effects. It also provides a good estimate for the epidemic threshold in case of percolating graphs. Griffiths Phases emerge if the graph is fragmented or if we apply a strong, exponentially suppressing weighting scheme on the edges. The latter model describes the connection time distributions in the face-to-face experiments. In case of a generalized Barabási-Albert type of network with aging connections, strong rare-region effects and numerical evidence for Griffiths Phase dynamics are shown. The dynamical simulation results agree well with the predictions of the spectral analysis applied for the weighted adjacency matrices.

Chronnectome fingerprinting: Identifying individuals and predicting higher cognitive functions using dynamic brain connectivity patterns.

PubMed

Liu, Jin; Liao, Xuhong; Xia, Mingrui; He, Yong

2018-02-01

The human brain is a large, interacting dynamic network, and its architecture of coupling among brain regions varies across time (termed the "chronnectome"). However, very little is known about whether and how the dynamic properties of the chronnectome can characterize individual uniqueness, such as identifying individuals as a "fingerprint" of the brain. Here, we employed multiband resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data from the Human Connectome Project (N = 105) and a sliding time-window dynamic network analysis approach to systematically examine individual time-varying properties of the chronnectome. We revealed stable and remarkable individual variability in three dynamic characteristics of brain connectivity (i.e., strength, stability, and variability), which was mainly distributed in three higher order cognitive systems (i.e., default mode, dorsal attention, and fronto-parietal) and in two primary systems (i.e., visual and sensorimotor). Intriguingly, the spatial patterns of these dynamic characteristics of brain connectivity could successfully identify individuals with high accuracy and could further significantly predict individual higher cognitive performance (e.g., fluid intelligence and executive function), which was primarily contributed by the higher order cognitive systems. Together, our findings highlight that the chronnectome captures inherent functional dynamics of individual brain networks and provides implications for individualized characterization of health and disease. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Boolean Dynamic Modeling Approaches to Study Plant Gene Regulatory Networks: Integration, Validation, and Prediction.

PubMed

Velderraín, José Dávila; Martínez-García, Juan Carlos; Álvarez-Buylla, Elena R

2017-01-01

Mathematical models based on dynamical systems theory are well-suited tools for the integration of available molecular experimental data into coherent frameworks in order to propose hypotheses about the cooperative regulatory mechanisms driving developmental processes. Computational analysis of the proposed models using well-established methods enables testing the hypotheses by contrasting predictions with observations. Within such framework, Boolean gene regulatory network dynamical models have been extensively used in modeling plant development. Boolean models are simple and intuitively appealing, ideal tools for collaborative efforts between theorists and experimentalists. In this chapter we present protocols used in our group for the study of diverse plant developmental processes. We focus on conceptual clarity and practical implementation, providing directions to the corresponding technical literature.

A model of gene expression based on random dynamical systems reveals modularity properties of gene regulatory networks.

PubMed

Antoneli, Fernando; Ferreira, Renata C; Briones, Marcelo R S

2016-06-01

Here we propose a new approach to modeling gene expression based on the theory of random dynamical systems (RDS) that provides a general coupling prescription between the nodes of any given regulatory network given the dynamics of each node is modeled by a RDS. The main virtues of this approach are the following: (i) it provides a natural way to obtain arbitrarily large networks by coupling together simple basic pieces, thus revealing the modularity of regulatory networks; (ii) the assumptions about the stochastic processes used in the modeling are fairly general, in the sense that the only requirement is stationarity; (iii) there is a well developed mathematical theory, which is a blend of smooth dynamical systems theory, ergodic theory and stochastic analysis that allows one to extract relevant dynamical and statistical information without solving the system; (iv) one may obtain the classical rate equations form the corresponding stochastic version by averaging the dynamic random variables (small noise limit). It is important to emphasize that unlike the deterministic case, where coupling two equations is a trivial matter, coupling two RDS is non-trivial, specially in our case, where the coupling is performed between a state variable of one gene and the switching stochastic process of another gene and, hence, it is not a priori true that the resulting coupled system will satisfy the definition of a random dynamical system. We shall provide the necessary arguments that ensure that our coupling prescription does indeed furnish a coupled regulatory network of random dynamical systems. Finally, the fact that classical rate equations are the small noise limit of our stochastic model ensures that any validation or prediction made on the basis of the classical theory is also a validation or prediction of our model. We illustrate our framework with some simple examples of single-gene system and network motifs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen; Niu, Hongli

2016-01-01

In recent years, financial market dynamics forecasting has been a focus of economic research. To predict the price indices of stock markets, we developed an architecture which combined Elman recurrent neural networks with stochastic time effective function. By analyzing the proposed model with the linear regression, complexity invariant distance (CID), and multiscale CID (MCID) analysis methods and taking the model compared with different models such as the backpropagation neural network (BPNN), the stochastic time effective neural network (STNN), and the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN), the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices. PMID:27293423

Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks.

PubMed

Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen; Niu, Hongli

2016-01-01

In recent years, financial market dynamics forecasting has been a focus of economic research. To predict the price indices of stock markets, we developed an architecture which combined Elman recurrent neural networks with stochastic time effective function. By analyzing the proposed model with the linear regression, complexity invariant distance (CID), and multiscale CID (MCID) analysis methods and taking the model compared with different models such as the backpropagation neural network (BPNN), the stochastic time effective neural network (STNN), and the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN), the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices.

Synaptic State Matching: A Dynamical Architecture for Predictive Internal Representation and Feature Detection

PubMed Central

Tavazoie, Saeed

2013-01-01

Here we explore the possibility that a core function of sensory cortex is the generation of an internal simulation of sensory environment in real-time. A logical elaboration of this idea leads to a dynamical neural architecture that oscillates between two fundamental network states, one driven by external input, and the other by recurrent synaptic drive in the absence of sensory input. Synaptic strength is modified by a proposed synaptic state matching (SSM) process that ensures equivalence of spike statistics between the two network states. Remarkably, SSM, operating locally at individual synapses, generates accurate and stable network-level predictive internal representations, enabling pattern completion and unsupervised feature detection from noisy sensory input. SSM is a biologically plausible substrate for learning and memory because it brings together sequence learning, feature detection, synaptic homeostasis, and network oscillations under a single unifying computational framework. PMID:23991161

Dynamical genetic programming in XCSF.

PubMed

Preen, Richard J; Bull, Larry

2013-01-01

A number of representation schemes have been presented for use within learning classifier systems, ranging from binary encodings to artificial neural networks. This paper presents results from an investigation into using a temporally dynamic symbolic representation within the XCSF learning classifier system. In particular, dynamical arithmetic networks are used to represent the traditional condition-action production system rules to solve continuous-valued reinforcement learning problems and to perform symbolic regression, finding competitive performance with traditional genetic programming on a number of composite polynomial tasks. In addition, the network outputs are later repeatedly sampled at varying temporal intervals to perform multistep-ahead predictions of a financial time series.

Airborne Network Optimization with Dynamic Network Update

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

Faculty Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Graduate School of Engineering and Management Air Force Institute of Technology Air University...Member Dr. Barry E. Mullins Member AFIT-ENG-MS-15-M-030 Abstract Modern networks employ congestion and routing management algorithms that can perform...airborne networks. Intelligent agents can make use of Kalman filter predictions to make informed decisions to manage communication in airborne networks. The

Critical behavior of the contact process on small-world networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Ronan S.; Ferreira, Silvio C.

2013-11-01

We investigate the role of clustering on the critical behavior of the contact process (CP) on small-world networks using the Watts-Strogatz (WS) network model with an edge rewiring probability p. The critical point is well predicted by a homogeneous cluster-approximation for the limit of vanishing clustering ( p → 1). The critical exponents and dimensionless moment ratios of the CP are in agreement with those predicted by the mean-field theory for any p > 0. This independence on the network clustering shows that the small-world property is a sufficient condition for the mean-field theory to correctly predict the universality of the model. Moreover, we compare the CP dynamics on WS networks with rewiring probability p = 1 and random regular networks and show that the weak heterogeneity of the WS network slightly changes the critical point but does not alter other critical quantities of the model.

Hot Spots in a Network of Functional Sites

PubMed Central

Ozbek, Pemra; Soner, Seren; Haliloglu, Turkan

2013-01-01

It is of significant interest to understand how proteins interact, which holds the key phenomenon in biological functions. Using dynamic fluctuations in high frequency modes, we show that the Gaussian Network Model (GNM) predicts hot spot residues with success rates ranging between S 8–58%, C 84–95%, P 5–19% and A 81–92% on unbound structures and S 8–51%, C 97–99%, P 14–50%, A 94–97% on complex structures for sensitivity, specificity, precision and accuracy, respectively. High specificity and accuracy rates with a single property on unbound protein structures suggest that hot spots are predefined in the dynamics of unbound structures and forming the binding core of interfaces, whereas the prediction of other functional residues with similar dynamic behavior explains the lower precision values. The latter is demonstrated with the case studies; ubiquitin, hen egg-white lysozyme and M2 proton channel. The dynamic fluctuations suggest a pseudo network of residues with high frequency fluctuations, which could be plausible for the mechanism of biological interactions and allosteric regulation. PMID:24023934

Implementing a Bayes Filter in a Neural Circuit: The Case of Unknown Stimulus Dynamics.

PubMed

Sokoloski, Sacha

2017-09-01

In order to interact intelligently with objects in the world, animals must first transform neural population responses into estimates of the dynamic, unknown stimuli that caused them. The Bayesian solution to this problem is known as a Bayes filter, which applies Bayes' rule to combine population responses with the predictions of an internal model. The internal model of the Bayes filter is based on the true stimulus dynamics, and in this note, we present a method for training a theoretical neural circuit to approximately implement a Bayes filter when the stimulus dynamics are unknown. To do this we use the inferential properties of linear probabilistic population codes to compute Bayes' rule and train a neural network to compute approximate predictions by the method of maximum likelihood. In particular, we perform stochastic gradient descent on the negative log-likelihood of the neural network parameters with a novel approximation of the gradient. We demonstrate our methods on a finite-state, a linear, and a nonlinear filtering problem and show how the hidden layer of the neural network develops tuning curves consistent with findings in experimental neuroscience.

Relating Topological Determinants of Complex Networks to Their Spectral Properties: Structural and Dynamical Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellano, Claudio; Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo

2017-10-01

The largest eigenvalue of a network's adjacency matrix and its associated principal eigenvector are key elements for determining the topological structure and the properties of dynamical processes mediated by it. We present a physically grounded expression relating the value of the largest eigenvalue of a given network to the largest eigenvalue of two network subgraphs, considered as isolated: the hub with its immediate neighbors and the densely connected set of nodes with maximum K -core index. We validate this formula by showing that it predicts, with good accuracy, the largest eigenvalue of a large set of synthetic and real-world topologies. We also present evidence of the consequences of these findings for broad classes of dynamics taking place on the networks. As a by-product, we reveal that the spectral properties of heterogeneous networks built according to the linear preferential attachment model are qualitatively different from those of their static counterparts.

Complex social contagion makes networks more vulnerable to disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Campbell, Ellsworth; Salathé, Marcel

2013-01-01

Social network analysis is now widely used to investigate the dynamics of infectious disease spread. Vaccination dramatically disrupts disease transmission on a contact network, and indeed, high vaccination rates can potentially halt disease transmission altogether. Here, we build on mounting evidence that health behaviors - such as vaccination, and refusal thereof - can spread across social networks through a process of complex contagion that requires social reinforcement. Using network simulations that model health behavior and infectious disease spread, we find that under otherwise identical conditions, the process by which the health behavior spreads has a very strong effect on disease outbreak dynamics. This dynamic variability results from differences in the topology within susceptible communities that arise during the health behavior spreading process, which in turn depends on the topology of the overall social network. Our findings point to the importance of health behavior spread in predicting and controlling disease outbreaks.

Automated identification of functional dynamic networks from X-ray crystallography

PubMed Central

van den Bedem, Henry; Bhabha, Gira; Yang, Kun; Wright, Peter E.; Fraser, James S.

2013-01-01

Protein function often depends on the exchange between conformational substates. Allosteric ligand binding or distal mutations can stabilize specific active site conformations and consequently alter protein function. In addition to comparing independently determined X-ray crystal structures, alternative conformations observed at low levels of electron density have the potential to provide mechanistic insights into conformational dynamics. Here, we report a new multi-conformer contact network algorithm (CONTACT) that identifies networks of conformationally heterogeneous residues directly from high-resolution X-ray crystallography data. Contact networks in Escherichia coli dihydrofolate reductase (ecDHFR) predict the long-range pattern of NMR chemical shift perturbations of an allosteric mutation. A comparison of contact networks in wild type and mutant ecDHFR suggests how mutations that alter optimized networks of coordinated motions can impair catalytic function. Thus, CONTACT-guided mutagenesis will allow the structure-dynamics-function relationship to be exploited in protein engineering and design. PMID:23913260

Multiple tipping points and optimal repairing in interacting networks

PubMed Central

Majdandzic, Antonio; Braunstein, Lidia A.; Curme, Chester; Vodenska, Irena; Levy-Carciente, Sary; Eugene Stanley, H.; Havlin, Shlomo

2016-01-01

Systems composed of many interacting dynamical networks—such as the human body with its biological networks or the global economic network consisting of regional clusters—often exhibit complicated collective dynamics. Three fundamental processes that are typically present are failure, damage spread and recovery. Here we develop a model for such systems and find a very rich phase diagram that becomes increasingly more complex as the number of interacting networks increases. In the simplest example of two interacting networks we find two critical points, four triple points, ten allowed transitions and two ‘forbidden' transitions, as well as complex hysteresis loops. Remarkably, we find that triple points play the dominant role in constructing the optimal repairing strategy in damaged interacting systems. To test our model, we analyse an example of real interacting financial networks and find evidence of rapid dynamical transitions between well-defined states, in agreement with the predictions of our model. PMID:26926803

Structural features that predict real-value fluctuations of globular proteins

PubMed Central

Jamroz, Michal; Kolinski, Andrzej; Kihara, Daisuke

2012-01-01

It is crucial to consider dynamics for understanding the biological function of proteins. We used a large number of molecular dynamics trajectories of non-homologous proteins as references and examined static structural features of proteins that are most relevant to fluctuations. We examined correlation of individual structural features with fluctuations and further investigated effective combinations of features for predicting the real-value of residue fluctuations using the support vector regression. It was found that some structural features have higher correlation than crystallographic B-factors with fluctuations observed in molecular dynamics trajectories. Moreover, support vector regression that uses combinations of static structural features showed accurate prediction of fluctuations with an average Pearson’s correlation coefficient of 0.669 and a root mean square error of 1.04 Å. This correlation coefficient is higher than the one observed for the prediction by the Gaussian network model. An advantage of the developed method over the Gaussian network models is that the former predicts the real-value of fluctuation. The results help improve our understanding of relationships between protein structure and fluctuation. Furthermore, the developed method provides a convienient practial way to predict fluctuations of proteins using easily computed static structural features of proteins. PMID:22328193

Human communication dynamics in digital footsteps: a study of the agreement between self-reported ties and email networks.

PubMed

Wuchty, Stefan; Uzzi, Brian

2011-01-01

Digital communication data has created opportunities to advance the knowledge of human dynamics in many areas, including national security, behavioral health, and consumerism. While digital data uniquely captures the totality of a person's communication, past research consistently shows that a subset of contacts makes up a person's "social network" of unique resource providers. To address this gap, we analyzed the correspondence between self-reported social network data and email communication data with the objective of identifying the dynamics in e-communication that correlate with a person's perception of a significant network tie. First, we examined the predictive utility of three popular methods to derive social network data from email data based on volume and reciprocity of bilateral email exchanges. Second, we observed differences in the response dynamics along self-reported ties, allowing us to introduce and test a new method that incorporates time-resolved exchange data. Using a range of robustness checks for measurement and misreporting errors in self-report and email data, we find that the methods have similar predictive utility. Although e-communication has lowered communication costs with large numbers of persons, and potentially extended our number of, and reach to contacts, our case results suggest that underlying behavioral patterns indicative of friendship or professional contacts continue to operate in a classical fashion in email interactions.

A neural-network-based model for the dynamic simulation of the tire/suspension system while traversing road irregularities.

PubMed

Guarneri, Paolo; Rocca, Gianpiero; Gobbi, Massimiliano

2008-09-01

This paper deals with the simulation of the tire/suspension dynamics by using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). RNNs are derived from the multilayer feedforward neural networks, by adding feedback connections between output and input layers. The optimal network architecture derives from a parametric analysis based on the optimal tradeoff between network accuracy and size. The neural network can be trained with experimental data obtained in the laboratory from simulated road profiles (cleats). The results obtained from the neural network demonstrate good agreement with the experimental results over a wide range of operation conditions. The NN model can be effectively applied as a part of vehicle system model to accurately predict elastic bushings and tire dynamics behavior. Although the neural network model, as a black-box model, does not provide a good insight of the physical behavior of the tire/suspension system, it is a useful tool for assessing vehicle ride and noise, vibration, harshness (NVH) performance due to its good computational efficiency and accuracy.

A novel time series link prediction method: Learning automata approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradabadi, Behnaz; Meybodi, Mohammad Reza

2017-09-01

Link prediction is a main social network challenge that uses the network structure to predict future links. The common link prediction approaches to predict hidden links use a static graph representation where a snapshot of the network is analyzed to find hidden or future links. For example, similarity metric based link predictions are a common traditional approach that calculates the similarity metric for each non-connected link and sort the links based on their similarity metrics and label the links with higher similarity scores as the future links. Because people activities in social networks are dynamic and uncertainty, and the structure of the networks changes over time, using deterministic graphs for modeling and analysis of the social network may not be appropriate. In the time-series link prediction problem, the time series link occurrences are used to predict the future links In this paper, we propose a new time series link prediction based on learning automata. In the proposed algorithm for each link that must be predicted there is one learning automaton and each learning automaton tries to predict the existence or non-existence of the corresponding link. To predict the link occurrence in time T, there is a chain consists of stages 1 through T - 1 and the learning automaton passes from these stages to learn the existence or non-existence of the corresponding link. Our preliminary link prediction experiments with co-authorship and email networks have provided satisfactory results when time series link occurrences are considered.

Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of stream total phosphate concentration by soft computing techniques.

PubMed

Chang, Fi-John; Chen, Pin-An; Chang, Li-Chiu; Tsai, Yu-Hsuan

2016-08-15

This study attempts to model the spatio-temporal dynamics of total phosphate (TP) concentrations along a river for effective hydro-environmental management. We propose a systematical modeling scheme (SMS), which is an ingenious modeling process equipped with a dynamic neural network and three refined statistical methods, for reliably predicting the TP concentrations along a river simultaneously. Two different types of artificial neural network (BPNN-static neural network; NARX network-dynamic neural network) are constructed in modeling the dynamic system. The Dahan River in Taiwan is used as a study case, where ten-year seasonal water quality data collected at seven monitoring stations along the river are used for model training and validation. Results demonstrate that the NARX network can suitably capture the important dynamic features and remarkably outperforms the BPNN model, and the SMS can effectively identify key input factors, suitably overcome data scarcity, significantly increase model reliability, satisfactorily estimate site-specific TP concentration at seven monitoring stations simultaneously, and adequately reconstruct seasonal TP data into a monthly scale. The proposed SMS can reliably model the dynamic spatio-temporal water pollution variation in a river system for missing, hazardous or costly data of interest. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamics and thermodynamics of open chemical networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esposito, Massimiliano

Open chemical networks (OCN) are large sets of coupled chemical reactions where some of the species are chemostated (i.e. continuously restored from the environment). Cell metabolism is a notable example of OCN. Two results will be presented. First, dissipation in OCN operating in nonequilibrium steady-states strongly depends on the network topology (algebraic properties of the stoichiometric matrix). An application to oligosaccharides exchange dynamics performed by so-called D-enzymes will be provided. Second, at low concentration the dissipation of OCN is in general inaccurately predicted by deterministic dynamics (i.e. nonlinear rate equations for the species concentrations). In this case a description in terms of the chemical master equation is necessary. A notable exception is provided by so-called deficiency zero networks, i.e. chemical networks with no hidden cycles present in the graph of reactant complexes.

Structure and dynamics of stock market in times of crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Longfeng; Li, Wei; Cai, Xu

2016-02-01

Daily correlations among 322 S&P 500 constituent stocks are investigated by means of correlation-based (CB) network. By using the heterogeneous time scales, we identify global expansion and local clustering market behaviors during crises, which are mainly caused by community splits and inter-sector edge number decreases. The CB networks display distinctive community and sector structures. Graph edit distance is applied to capturing the dynamics of CB networks in which drastic structure reconfigurations can be observed during crisis periods. Edge statistics reveal the power-law nature of edges' duration time distribution. Despite the networks' strong structural changes during crises, we still find some long-duration edges that serve as the backbone of the stock market. Finally the dynamical change of network structure has shown its capability in predicting the implied volatility index (VIX).

Predicting perturbation patterns from the topology of biological networks.

PubMed

Santolini, Marc; Barabási, Albert-László

2018-06-20

High-throughput technologies, offering an unprecedented wealth of quantitative data underlying the makeup of living systems, are changing biology. Notably, the systematic mapping of the relationships between biochemical entities has fueled the rapid development of network biology, offering a suitable framework to describe disease phenotypes and predict potential drug targets. However, our ability to develop accurate dynamical models remains limited, due in part to the limited knowledge of the kinetic parameters underlying these interactions. Here, we explore the degree to which we can make reasonably accurate predictions in the absence of the kinetic parameters. We find that simple dynamically agnostic models are sufficient to recover the strength and sign of the biochemical perturbation patterns observed in 87 biological models for which the underlying kinetics are known. Surprisingly, a simple distance-based model achieves 65% accuracy. We show that this predictive power is robust to topological and kinetic parameter perturbations, and we identify key network properties that can increase up to 80% the recovery rate of the true perturbation patterns. We validate our approach using experimental data on the chemotactic pathway in bacteria, finding that a network model of perturbation spreading predicts with ∼80% accuracy the directionality of gene expression and phenotype changes in knock-out and overproduction experiments. These findings show that the steady advances in mapping out the topology of biochemical interaction networks opens avenues for accurate perturbation spread modeling, with direct implications for medicine and drug development.

Volunteerism: Social Network Dynamics and Education

PubMed Central

Ajrouch, Kristine J.; Antonucci, Toni C.; Webster, Noah J.

2016-01-01

Objectives . We examine how changes in social networks influence volunteerism through bridging (diversity) and bonding (spending time) mechanisms. We further investigate whether social network change substitutes or amplifies the effects of education on volunteerism. Methods . Data (n = 543) are drawn from a two-wave survey of Social Relations and Health over the Life Course (SRHLC). Zero-inflated negative binomial regressions were conducted to test competing hypotheses about how changes in social network characteristics alone and in conjunction with education level predict likelihood and frequency of volunteering. Results . Changes in social networks were associated with volunteerism: as the proportion of family members decreased and the average number of network members living within a one-hour drive increased over time, participants reported higher odds of volunteering. The substitution hypothesis was supported: social networks that exhibited more geographic proximity and greater contact frequency over-time compensated for lower levels of education to predict volunteering more hours. Discussion . The dynamic role of social networks and the ways in which they may work through bridging and bonding to influence both likelihood and frequency of volunteering are discussed. The potential benefits of volunteerism in light of longer life expectancies and smaller families are also considered. PMID:25512570

From trees to forest: relational complexity network and workload of air traffic controllers.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingyu; Yang, Jiazhong; Wu, Changxu

2015-01-01

In this paper, we propose a relational complexity (RC) network framework based on RC metric and network theory to model controllers' workload in conflict detection and resolution. We suggest that, at the sector level, air traffic showing a centralised network pattern can provide cognitive benefits in visual search and resolution decision which will in turn result in lower workload. We found that the network centralisation index can account for more variance in predicting perceived workload and task completion time in both a static conflict detection task (Study 1) and a dynamic one (Study 2) in addition to other aircraft-level and pair-level factors. This finding suggests that linear combination of aircraft-level or dyad-level information may not be adequate and the global-pattern-based index is necessary. Theoretical and practical implications of using this framework to improve future workload modelling and management are discussed. We propose a RC network framework to model the workload of air traffic controllers. The effect of network centralisation was examined in both a static conflict detection task and a dynamic one. Network centralisation was predictive of perceived workload and task completion time over and above other control variables.

A Combined Adaptive Neural Network and Nonlinear Model Predictive Control for Multirate Networked Industrial Process Control.

PubMed

Wang, Tong; Gao, Huijun; Qiu, Jianbin

2016-02-01

This paper investigates the multirate networked industrial process control problem in double-layer architecture. First, the output tracking problem for sampled-data nonlinear plant at device layer with sampling period T(d) is investigated using adaptive neural network (NN) control, and it is shown that the outputs of subsystems at device layer can track the decomposed setpoints. Then, the outputs and inputs of the device layer subsystems are sampled with sampling period T(u) at operation layer to form the index prediction, which is used to predict the overall performance index at lower frequency. Radial basis function NN is utilized as the prediction function due to its approximation ability. Then, considering the dynamics of the overall closed-loop system, nonlinear model predictive control method is proposed to guarantee the system stability and compensate the network-induced delays and packet dropouts. Finally, a continuous stirred tank reactor system is given in the simulation part to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

SDN-Enabled Dynamic Feedback Control and Sensing in Agile Optical Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Likun

Fiber optic networks are no longer just pipelines for transporting data in the long haul backbone. Exponential growth in traffic in metro-regional areas has pushed higher capacity fiber toward the edge of the network, and highly dynamic patterns of heterogeneous traffic have emerged that are often bursty, severely stressing the historical "fat and dumb pipe" static optical network, which would need to be massively over-provisioned to deal with these loads. What is required is a more intelligent network with a span of control over the optical as well as electrical transport mechanisms which enables handling of service requests in a fast and efficient way that guarantees quality of service (QoS) while optimizing capacity efficiency. An "agile" optical network is a reconfigurable optical network comprised of high speed intelligent control system fed by real-time in situ network sensing. It provides fast response in the control and switching of optical signals in response to changing traffic demands and network conditions. This agile control of optical signals is enabled by pushing switching decisions downward in the network stack to the physical layer. Implementing such agility is challenging due to the response dynamics and interactions of signals in the physical layer. Control schemes must deal with issues such as dynamic power equalization, EDFA transients and cascaded noise effects, impairments due to self-phase modulation and dispersion, and channel-to-channel cross talk. If these issues are not properly predicted and mitigated, attempts at dynamic control can drive the optical network into an unstable state. In order to enable high speed actuation of signal modulators and switches, the network controller must be able to make decisions based on predictive models. In this thesis, we consider how to take advantage of Software Defined Networking (SDN) capabilities for network reconfiguration, combined with embedded models that access updates from deployed network monitoring sensors. In order to maintain signal quality while optimizing network resources, we find that it is essential to model and update estimates of the physical link impairments in real-time. In this thesis, we consider the key elements required to enable an agile optical network, with contributions as follows: • Control Framework: extended the SDN concept to include the optical transport network through extensions to the OpenFlow (OF) protocol. A unified SDN control plane is built to facilitate control and management capability across the electrical/packet-switched and optical/circuit-switched portions of the network seamlessly. The SDN control plane serves as a platform to abstract the resources of multilayer/multivendor networks. Through this platform, applications can dynamically request the network resources to meet their service requirements. • Use of In-situ Monitors: enabled real-time physical impairment sensing in the control plane using in-situ Optical Performance Monitoring (OPM) and bit error rate (BER) analyzers. OPM and BER values are used as quantitative indicators of the link status and are fed to the control plane through a high-speed data collection interface to form a closed-loop feedback system to enable adaptive resource allocation. • Predictive Network Model: used a network model embedded in the control layer to study the link status. The estimated results of network status is fed into the control decisions to precompute the network resources. The performance of the network model can be enhanced by the sensing results. • Real-Time Control Algorithms: investigated various dynamic resource allocation mechanisms supporting an agile optical network. Intelligent routing and wavelength switching for recovering from traffic impairments is achieved experimentally in the agile optical network within one second. A distance-adaptive spectrum allocation scheme to address transmission impairments caused by cascaded Wavelength Selective Switches (WSS) is proposed and evaluated for improving network spectral efficiency.

The signaling petri net-based simulator: a non-parametric strategy for characterizing the dynamics of cell-specific signaling networks.

PubMed

Ruths, Derek; Muller, Melissa; Tseng, Jen-Te; Nakhleh, Luay; Ram, Prahlad T

2008-02-29

Reconstructing cellular signaling networks and understanding how they work are major endeavors in cell biology. The scale and complexity of these networks, however, render their analysis using experimental biology approaches alone very challenging. As a result, computational methods have been developed and combined with experimental biology approaches, producing powerful tools for the analysis of these networks. These computational methods mostly fall on either end of a spectrum of model parameterization. On one end is a class of structural network analysis methods; these typically use the network connectivity alone to generate hypotheses about global properties. On the other end is a class of dynamic network analysis methods; these use, in addition to the connectivity, kinetic parameters of the biochemical reactions to predict the network's dynamic behavior. These predictions provide detailed insights into the properties that determine aspects of the network's structure and behavior. However, the difficulty of obtaining numerical values of kinetic parameters is widely recognized to limit the applicability of this latter class of methods. Several researchers have observed that the connectivity of a network alone can provide significant insights into its dynamics. Motivated by this fundamental observation, we present the signaling Petri net, a non-parametric model of cellular signaling networks, and the signaling Petri net-based simulator, a Petri net execution strategy for characterizing the dynamics of signal flow through a signaling network using token distribution and sampling. The result is a very fast method, which can analyze large-scale networks, and provide insights into the trends of molecules' activity-levels in response to an external stimulus, based solely on the network's connectivity. We have implemented the signaling Petri net-based simulator in the PathwayOracle toolkit, which is publicly available at http://bioinfo.cs.rice.edu/pathwayoracle. Using this method, we studied a MAPK1,2 and AKT signaling network downstream from EGFR in two breast tumor cell lines. We analyzed, both experimentally and computationally, the activity level of several molecules in response to a targeted manipulation of TSC2 and mTOR-Raptor. The results from our method agreed with experimental results in greater than 90% of the cases considered, and in those where they did not agree, our approach provided valuable insights into discrepancies between known network connectivities and experimental observations.

The Signaling Petri Net-Based Simulator: A Non-Parametric Strategy for Characterizing the Dynamics of Cell-Specific Signaling Networks

PubMed Central

Ruths, Derek; Muller, Melissa; Tseng, Jen-Te; Nakhleh, Luay; Ram, Prahlad T.

2008-01-01

Reconstructing cellular signaling networks and understanding how they work are major endeavors in cell biology. The scale and complexity of these networks, however, render their analysis using experimental biology approaches alone very challenging. As a result, computational methods have been developed and combined with experimental biology approaches, producing powerful tools for the analysis of these networks. These computational methods mostly fall on either end of a spectrum of model parameterization. On one end is a class of structural network analysis methods; these typically use the network connectivity alone to generate hypotheses about global properties. On the other end is a class of dynamic network analysis methods; these use, in addition to the connectivity, kinetic parameters of the biochemical reactions to predict the network's dynamic behavior. These predictions provide detailed insights into the properties that determine aspects of the network's structure and behavior. However, the difficulty of obtaining numerical values of kinetic parameters is widely recognized to limit the applicability of this latter class of methods. Several researchers have observed that the connectivity of a network alone can provide significant insights into its dynamics. Motivated by this fundamental observation, we present the signaling Petri net, a non-parametric model of cellular signaling networks, and the signaling Petri net-based simulator, a Petri net execution strategy for characterizing the dynamics of signal flow through a signaling network using token distribution and sampling. The result is a very fast method, which can analyze large-scale networks, and provide insights into the trends of molecules' activity-levels in response to an external stimulus, based solely on the network's connectivity. We have implemented the signaling Petri net-based simulator in the PathwayOracle toolkit, which is publicly available at http://bioinfo.cs.rice.edu/pathwayoracle. Using this method, we studied a MAPK1,2 and AKT signaling network downstream from EGFR in two breast tumor cell lines. We analyzed, both experimentally and computationally, the activity level of several molecules in response to a targeted manipulation of TSC2 and mTOR-Raptor. The results from our method agreed with experimental results in greater than 90% of the cases considered, and in those where they did not agree, our approach provided valuable insights into discrepancies between known network connectivities and experimental observations. PMID:18463702

Robust model predictive control of nonlinear systems with unmodeled dynamics and bounded uncertainties based on neural networks.

PubMed

Yan, Zheng; Wang, Jun

2014-03-01

This paper presents a neural network approach to robust model predictive control (MPC) for constrained discrete-time nonlinear systems with unmodeled dynamics affected by bounded uncertainties. The exact nonlinear model of underlying process is not precisely known, but a partially known nominal model is available. This partially known nonlinear model is first decomposed to an affine term plus an unknown high-order term via Jacobian linearization. The linearization residue combined with unmodeled dynamics is then modeled using an extreme learning machine via supervised learning. The minimax methodology is exploited to deal with bounded uncertainties. The minimax optimization problem is reformulated as a convex minimization problem and is iteratively solved by a two-layer recurrent neural network. The proposed neurodynamic approach to nonlinear MPC improves the computational efficiency and sheds a light for real-time implementability of MPC technology. Simulation results are provided to substantiate the effectiveness and characteristics of the proposed approach.

From link-prediction in brain connectomes and protein interactomes to the local-community-paradigm in complex networks

PubMed Central

Cannistraci, Carlo Vittorio; Alanis-Lobato, Gregorio; Ravasi, Timothy

2013-01-01

Growth and remodelling impact the network topology of complex systems, yet a general theory explaining how new links arise between existing nodes has been lacking, and little is known about the topological properties that facilitate link-prediction. Here we investigate the extent to which the connectivity evolution of a network might be predicted by mere topological features. We show how a link/community-based strategy triggers substantial prediction improvements because it accounts for the singular topology of several real networks organised in multiple local communities - a tendency here named local-community-paradigm (LCP). We observe that LCP networks are mainly formed by weak interactions and characterise heterogeneous and dynamic systems that use self-organisation as a major adaptation strategy. These systems seem designed for global delivery of information and processing via multiple local modules. Conversely, non-LCP networks have steady architectures formed by strong interactions, and seem designed for systems in which information/energy storage is crucial. PMID:23563395

From link-prediction in brain connectomes and protein interactomes to the local-community-paradigm in complex networks.

PubMed

Cannistraci, Carlo Vittorio; Alanis-Lobato, Gregorio; Ravasi, Timothy

2013-01-01

Growth and remodelling impact the network topology of complex systems, yet a general theory explaining how new links arise between existing nodes has been lacking, and little is known about the topological properties that facilitate link-prediction. Here we investigate the extent to which the connectivity evolution of a network might be predicted by mere topological features. We show how a link/community-based strategy triggers substantial prediction improvements because it accounts for the singular topology of several real networks organised in multiple local communities - a tendency here named local-community-paradigm (LCP). We observe that LCP networks are mainly formed by weak interactions and characterise heterogeneous and dynamic systems that use self-organisation as a major adaptation strategy. These systems seem designed for global delivery of information and processing via multiple local modules. Conversely, non-LCP networks have steady architectures formed by strong interactions, and seem designed for systems in which information/energy storage is crucial.

Data based identification and prediction of nonlinear and complex dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wen-Xu; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Grebogi, Celso

2016-07-01

The problem of reconstructing nonlinear and complex dynamical systems from measured data or time series is central to many scientific disciplines including physical, biological, computer, and social sciences, as well as engineering and economics. The classic approach to phase-space reconstruction through the methodology of delay-coordinate embedding has been practiced for more than three decades, but the paradigm is effective mostly for low-dimensional dynamical systems. Often, the methodology yields only a topological correspondence of the original system. There are situations in various fields of science and engineering where the systems of interest are complex and high dimensional with many interacting components. A complex system typically exhibits a rich variety of collective dynamics, and it is of great interest to be able to detect, classify, understand, predict, and control the dynamics using data that are becoming increasingly accessible due to the advances of modern information technology. To accomplish these goals, especially prediction and control, an accurate reconstruction of the original system is required. Nonlinear and complex systems identification aims at inferring, from data, the mathematical equations that govern the dynamical evolution and the complex interaction patterns, or topology, among the various components of the system. With successful reconstruction of the system equations and the connecting topology, it may be possible to address challenging and significant problems such as identification of causal relations among the interacting components and detection of hidden nodes. The "inverse" problem thus presents a grand challenge, requiring new paradigms beyond the traditional delay-coordinate embedding methodology. The past fifteen years have witnessed rapid development of contemporary complex graph theory with broad applications in interdisciplinary science and engineering. The combination of graph, information, and nonlinear dynamical systems theories with tools from statistical physics, optimization, engineering control, applied mathematics, and scientific computing enables the development of a number of paradigms to address the problem of nonlinear and complex systems reconstruction. In this Review, we describe the recent advances in this forefront and rapidly evolving field, with a focus on compressive sensing based methods. In particular, compressive sensing is a paradigm developed in recent years in applied mathematics, electrical engineering, and nonlinear physics to reconstruct sparse signals using only limited data. It has broad applications ranging from image compression/reconstruction to the analysis of large-scale sensor networks, and it has become a powerful technique to obtain high-fidelity signals for applications where sufficient observations are not available. We will describe in detail how compressive sensing can be exploited to address a diverse array of problems in data based reconstruction of nonlinear and complex networked systems. The problems include identification of chaotic systems and prediction of catastrophic bifurcations, forecasting future attractors of time-varying nonlinear systems, reconstruction of complex networks with oscillatory and evolutionary game dynamics, detection of hidden nodes, identification of chaotic elements in neuronal networks, reconstruction of complex geospatial networks and nodal positioning, and reconstruction of complex spreading networks with binary data.. A number of alternative methods, such as those based on system response to external driving, synchronization, and noise-induced dynamical correlation, will also be discussed. Due to the high relevance of network reconstruction to biological sciences, a special section is devoted to a brief survey of the current methods to infer biological networks. Finally, a number of open problems including control and controllability of complex nonlinear dynamical networks are discussed. The methods outlined in this Review are principled on various concepts in complexity science and engineering such as phase transitions, bifurcations, stabilities, and robustness. The methodologies have the potential to significantly improve our ability to understand a variety of complex dynamical systems ranging from gene regulatory systems to social networks toward the ultimate goal of controlling such systems.

The Inverse Contagion Problem (ICP) vs.. Predicting site contagion in real time, when network links are not observable

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mushkin, I.; Solomon, S.

2017-10-01

We study the inverse contagion problem (ICP). As opposed to the direct contagion problem, in which the network structure is known and the question is when each node will be contaminated, in the inverse problem the links of the network are unknown but a sequence of contagion histories (the times when each node was contaminated) is observed. We consider two versions of the ICP: The strong problem (SICP), which is the reconstruction of the network and has been studied before, and the weak problem (WICP), which requires "only" the prediction (at each time step) of the nodes that will be contaminated at the next time step (this is often the real life situation in which a contagion is observed and predictions are made in real time). Moreover, our focus is on analyzing the increasing accuracy of the solution, as a function of the number of contagion histories already observed. For simplicity, we discuss the simplest (deterministic and synchronous) contagion dynamics and the simplest solution algorithm, which we have applied to different network types. The main result of this paper is that the complex problem of the convergence of the ICP for a network can be reduced to an individual property of pairs of nodes: the "false link difficulty". By definition, given a pair of unlinked nodes i and j, the difficulty of the false link (i,j) is the probability that in a random contagion history, the nodes i and j are not contaminated at the same time step (or at consecutive time steps). In other words, the "false link difficulty" of a non-existing network link is the probability that the observations during a random contagion history would not rule out that link. This probability is relatively straightforward to calculate, and in most instances relies only on the relative positions of the two nodes (i,j) and not on the entire network structure. We have observed the distribution of false link difficulty for various network types, estimated it theoretically and confronted it (successfully) with the numerical simulations. Based on it, we estimated analytically the convergence of the ICP solution (as a function of the number of contagion histories observed), and found it to be in perfect agreement with simulation results. Finally, the most important insight we obtained is that SICP and WICP are have quite different properties: if one in interested only in the operational aspect of predicting how contagion will spread, the links which are most difficult to decide about are the least influential on contagion dynamics. In other words, the parts of the network which are harder to reconstruct are also least important for predicting the contagion dynamics, up to the point where a (large) constant number of false links in the network (i.e. non-convergence of the network reconstruction procedure) implies a zero rate of the node contagion prediction errors (perfect convergence of the WICP). Thus, the contagion prediction problem (WICP) difficulty is very different from the network reconstruction problem (SICP), in as far as links which are difficult to reconstruct are quite harmless in terms of contagion prediction capability (WICP).

Synchronization in Random Pulse Oscillator Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Kevin; Hermundstad, Ann

Motivated by synchronization phenomena in neural systems, we study synchronization of random networks of coupled pulse oscillators. We begin by considering binomial random networks whose nodes have intrinsic linear dynamics. We quantify order in the network spiking dynamics using a new measure: the normalized Lev-Zimpel complexity (LZC) of the nodes' spike trains. Starting from a globally-synchronized state, we see two broad classes of behaviors. In one (''temporally random''), the LZC is high and nodes spike independently with no coherent pattern. In another (''temporally regular''), the network does not globally synchronize but instead forms coherent, repeating population firing patterns with low LZC. No topological feature of the network reliably predicts whether an individual network will show temporally random or regular behavior; however, we find evidence that degree heterogeneity in binomial networks has a strong effect on the resulting state. To confirm these findings, we generate random networks with independently-adjustable degree mean and variance. We find that the likelihood of temporally-random behavior increases as degree variance increases. Our results indicate the subtle and complex relationship between network structure and dynamics.

How to turn a genetic circuit into a synthetic tunable oscillator, or a bistable switch.

PubMed

Marucci, Lucia; Barton, David A W; Cantone, Irene; Ricci, Maria Aurelia; Cosma, Maria Pia; Santini, Stefania; di Bernardo, Diego; di Bernardo, Mario

2009-12-07

Systems and Synthetic Biology use computational models of biological pathways in order to study in silico the behaviour of biological pathways. Mathematical models allow to verify biological hypotheses and to predict new possible dynamical behaviours. Here we use the tools of non-linear analysis to understand how to change the dynamics of the genes composing a novel synthetic network recently constructed in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae for In-vivo Reverse-engineering and Modelling Assessment (IRMA). Guided by previous theoretical results that make the dynamics of a biological network depend on its topological properties, through the use of simulation and continuation techniques, we found that the network can be easily turned into a robust and tunable synthetic oscillator or a bistable switch. Our results provide guidelines to properly re-engineering in vivo the network in order to tune its dynamics.

Calculation of precise firing statistics in a neural network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Myoung Won

2017-08-01

A precise prediction of neural firing dynamics is requisite to understand the function of and the learning process in a biological neural network which works depending on exact spike timings. Basically, the prediction of firing statistics is a delicate manybody problem because the firing probability of a neuron at a time is determined by the summation over all effects from past firing states. A neural network model with the Feynman path integral formulation is recently introduced. In this paper, we present several methods to calculate firing statistics in the model. We apply the methods to some cases and compare the theoretical predictions with simulation results.

Adaptive Network Dynamics - Modeling and Control of Time-Dependent Social Contacts

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Ira B.; Shaw, Leah B.; Shkarayev, Maxim S.

2013-01-01

Real networks consisting of social contacts do not possess static connections. That is, social connections may be time dependent due to a variety of individual behavioral decisions based on current network connections. Examples of adaptive networks occur in epidemics, where information about infectious individuals may change the rewiring of healthy people, or in the recruitment of individuals to a cause or fad, where rewiring may optimize recruitment of susceptible individuals. In this paper, we will review some of the dynamical properties of adaptive networks, and show how they predict novel phenomena as well as yield insight into new controls. The applications will be control of epidemic outbreaks and terrorist recruitment modeling. PMID:25414913

Epidemic threshold of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyun Keun; Shim, Pyoung-Seop; Noh, Jae Dong

2013-06-01

We demonstrate that the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks can have an inactive Griffiths phase characterized by a slow relaxation dynamics. It contrasts with the mean-field theoretical prediction that the SIS model on complex networks is active at any nonzero infection rate. The dynamic fluctuation of infected nodes, ignored in the mean field approach, is responsible for the inactive phase. It is proposed that the question whether the epidemic threshold of the SIS model on complex networks is zero or not can be resolved by the percolation threshold in a model where nodes are occupied in degree-descending order. Our arguments are supported by the numerical studies on scale-free network models.

Degenerate time-dependent network dynamics anticipate seizures in human epileptic brain.

PubMed

Tauste Campo, Adrià; Principe, Alessandro; Ley, Miguel; Rocamora, Rodrigo; Deco, Gustavo

2018-04-01

Epileptic seizures are known to follow specific changes in brain dynamics. While some algorithms can nowadays robustly detect these changes, a clear understanding of the mechanism by which these alterations occur and generate seizures is still lacking. Here, we provide crossvalidated evidence that such changes are initiated by an alteration of physiological network state dynamics. Specifically, our analysis of long intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) recordings from a group of 10 patients identifies a critical phase of a few hours in which time-dependent network states become less variable ("degenerate"), and this phase is followed by a global functional connectivity reduction before seizure onset. This critical phase is characterized by an abnormal occurrence of highly correlated network instances and is shown to be particularly associated with the activity of the resected regions in patients with validated postsurgical outcome. Our approach characterizes preseizure network dynamics as a cascade of 2 sequential events providing new insights into seizure prediction and control.

The diminishing role of hubs in dynamical processes on complex networks.

PubMed

Quax, Rick; Apolloni, Andrea; Sloot, Peter M A

2013-11-06

It is notoriously difficult to predict the behaviour of a complex self-organizing system, where the interactions among dynamical units form a heterogeneous topology. Even if the dynamics of each microscopic unit is known, a real understanding of their contributions to the macroscopic system behaviour is still lacking. Here, we develop information-theoretical methods to distinguish the contribution of each individual unit to the collective out-of-equilibrium dynamics. We show that for a system of units connected by a network of interaction potentials with an arbitrary degree distribution, highly connected units have less impact on the system dynamics when compared with intermediately connected units. In an equilibrium setting, the hubs are often found to dictate the long-term behaviour. However, we find both analytically and experimentally that the instantaneous states of these units have a short-lasting effect on the state trajectory of the entire system. We present qualitative evidence of this phenomenon from empirical findings about a social network of product recommendations, a protein-protein interaction network and a neural network, suggesting that it might indeed be a widespread property in nature.

Growing complex network of citations of scientific papers: Modeling and measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golosovsky, Michael; Solomon, Sorin

2017-01-01

We consider the network of citations of scientific papers and use a combination of the theoretical and experimental tools to uncover microscopic details of this network growth. Namely, we develop a stochastic model of citation dynamics based on the copying-redirection-triadic closure mechanism. In a complementary and coherent way, the model accounts both for statistics of references of scientific papers and for their citation dynamics. Originating in empirical measurements, the model is cast in such a way that it can be verified quantitatively in every aspect. Such validation is performed by measuring citation dynamics of physics papers. The measurements revealed nonlinear citation dynamics, the nonlinearity being intricately related to network topology. The nonlinearity has far-reaching consequences including nonstationary citation distributions, diverging citation trajectories of similar papers, runaways or "immortal papers" with infinite citation lifetime, etc. Thus nonlinearity in complex network growth is our most important finding. In a more specific context, our results can be a basis for quantitative probabilistic prediction of citation dynamics of individual papers and of the journal impact factor.

Experimenting with ecosystem interaction networks in search of threshold potentials in real-world marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Thrush, Simon F; Hewitt, Judi E; Parkes, Samantha; Lohrer, Andrew M; Pilditch, Conrad; Woodin, Sarah A; Wethey, David S; Chiantore, Mariachiara; Asnaghi, Valentina; De Juan, Silvia; Kraan, Casper; Rodil, Ivan; Savage, Candida; Van Colen, Carl

2014-06-01

Thresholds profoundly affect our understanding and management of ecosystem dynamics, but we have yet to develop practical techniques to assess the risk that thresholds will be crossed. Combining ecological knowledge of critical system interdependencies with a large-scale experiment, we tested for breaks in the ecosystem interaction network to identify threshold potential in real-world ecosystem dynamics. Our experiment with the bivalves Macomona liliana and Austrovenus stutchburyi on marine sandflats in New Zealand demonstrated that reductions in incident sunlight changed the interaction network between sediment biogeochemical fluxes, productivity, and macrofauna. By demonstrating loss of positive feedbacks and changes in the architecture of the network, we provide mechanistic evidence that stressors lead to break points in dynamics, which theory predicts predispose a system to a critical transition.

MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF STERIODOGENESIS TO PREDICT DYNAMIC RESPONSE TO ENDOCRINE DISRUPTORS

EPA Science Inventory

WE ARE DEVELOPING A MECHANISTIC MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF THE INTRATESTICULAR AND INTRAOVARIAN METABOLIC NETWORK THAT MEDIATES STEROID SYNTHESIS, AND THE KINETICS FOR ENZYME INHIBITION BY EDCs TO PREDICT THE TIME AND DOSE-RESPONSE.

Evolutionary dynamics of the traveler's dilemma and minimum-effort coordination games on complex networks.

PubMed

Iyer, Swami; Killingback, Timothy

2014-10-01

The traveler's dilemma game and the minimum-effort coordination game are social dilemmas that have received significant attention resulting from the fact that the predictions of classical game theory are inconsistent with the results found when the games are studied experimentally. Moreover, both the traveler's dilemma and the minimum-effort coordination games have potentially important applications in evolutionary biology. Interestingly, standard deterministic evolutionary game theory, as represented by the replicator dynamics in a well-mixed population, is also inadequate to account for the behavior observed in these games. Here we study the evolutionary dynamics of both these games in populations with interaction patterns described by a variety of complex network topologies. We investigate the evolutionary dynamics of these games through agent-based simulations on both model and empirical networks. In particular, we study the effects of network clustering and assortativity on the evolutionary dynamics of both games. In general, we show that the evolutionary behavior of the traveler's dilemma and minimum-effort coordination games on complex networks is in good agreement with that observed experimentally. Thus, formulating the traveler's dilemma and the minimum-effort coordination games on complex networks neatly resolves the paradoxical aspects of these games.

Evolutionary dynamics of the traveler's dilemma and minimum-effort coordination games on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, Swami; Killingback, Timothy

2014-10-01

The traveler's dilemma game and the minimum-effort coordination game are social dilemmas that have received significant attention resulting from the fact that the predictions of classical game theory are inconsistent with the results found when the games are studied experimentally. Moreover, both the traveler's dilemma and the minimum-effort coordination games have potentially important applications in evolutionary biology. Interestingly, standard deterministic evolutionary game theory, as represented by the replicator dynamics in a well-mixed population, is also inadequate to account for the behavior observed in these games. Here we study the evolutionary dynamics of both these games in populations with interaction patterns described by a variety of complex network topologies. We investigate the evolutionary dynamics of these games through agent-based simulations on both model and empirical networks. In particular, we study the effects of network clustering and assortativity on the evolutionary dynamics of both games. In general, we show that the evolutionary behavior of the traveler's dilemma and minimum-effort coordination games on complex networks is in good agreement with that observed experimentally. Thus, formulating the traveler's dilemma and the minimum-effort coordination games on complex networks neatly resolves the paradoxical aspects of these games.

Knowledge-guided fuzzy logic modeling to infer cellular signaling networks from proteomic data

PubMed Central

Liu, Hui; Zhang, Fan; Mishra, Shital Kumar; Zhou, Shuigeng; Zheng, Jie

2016-01-01

Modeling of signaling pathways is crucial for understanding and predicting cellular responses to drug treatments. However, canonical signaling pathways curated from literature are seldom context-specific and thus can hardly predict cell type-specific response to external perturbations; purely data-driven methods also have drawbacks such as limited biological interpretability. Therefore, hybrid methods that can integrate prior knowledge and real data for network inference are highly desirable. In this paper, we propose a knowledge-guided fuzzy logic network model to infer signaling pathways by exploiting both prior knowledge and time-series data. In particular, the dynamic time warping algorithm is employed to measure the goodness of fit between experimental and predicted data, so that our method can model temporally-ordered experimental observations. We evaluated the proposed method on a synthetic dataset and two real phosphoproteomic datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that our model can uncover drug-induced alterations in signaling pathways in cancer cells. Compared with existing hybrid models, our method can model feedback loops so that the dynamical mechanisms of signaling networks can be uncovered from time-series data. By calibrating generic models of signaling pathways against real data, our method supports precise predictions of context-specific anticancer drug effects, which is an important step towards precision medicine. PMID:27774993

Learning Traffic as Images: A Deep Convolutional Neural Network for Large-Scale Transportation Network Speed Prediction.

PubMed

Ma, Xiaolei; Dai, Zhuang; He, Zhengbing; Ma, Jihui; Wang, Yong; Wang, Yunpeng

2017-04-10

This paper proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based method that learns traffic as images and predicts large-scale, network-wide traffic speed with a high accuracy. Spatiotemporal traffic dynamics are converted to images describing the time and space relations of traffic flow via a two-dimensional time-space matrix. A CNN is applied to the image following two consecutive steps: abstract traffic feature extraction and network-wide traffic speed prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by taking two real-world transportation networks, the second ring road and north-east transportation network in Beijing, as examples, and comparing the method with four prevailing algorithms, namely, ordinary least squares, k-nearest neighbors, artificial neural network, and random forest, and three deep learning architectures, namely, stacked autoencoder, recurrent neural network, and long-short-term memory network. The results show that the proposed method outperforms other algorithms by an average accuracy improvement of 42.91% within an acceptable execution time. The CNN can train the model in a reasonable time and, thus, is suitable for large-scale transportation networks.

Learning Traffic as Images: A Deep Convolutional Neural Network for Large-Scale Transportation Network Speed Prediction

PubMed Central

Ma, Xiaolei; Dai, Zhuang; He, Zhengbing; Ma, Jihui; Wang, Yong; Wang, Yunpeng

2017-01-01

This paper proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based method that learns traffic as images and predicts large-scale, network-wide traffic speed with a high accuracy. Spatiotemporal traffic dynamics are converted to images describing the time and space relations of traffic flow via a two-dimensional time-space matrix. A CNN is applied to the image following two consecutive steps: abstract traffic feature extraction and network-wide traffic speed prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by taking two real-world transportation networks, the second ring road and north-east transportation network in Beijing, as examples, and comparing the method with four prevailing algorithms, namely, ordinary least squares, k-nearest neighbors, artificial neural network, and random forest, and three deep learning architectures, namely, stacked autoencoder, recurrent neural network, and long-short-term memory network. The results show that the proposed method outperforms other algorithms by an average accuracy improvement of 42.91% within an acceptable execution time. The CNN can train the model in a reasonable time and, thus, is suitable for large-scale transportation networks. PMID:28394270

A network of molecular switches controls the activation of the two-component response regulator NtrC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanatta, Dan K.; Shukla, Diwakar; Lawrenz, Morgan; Pande, Vijay S.

2015-06-01

Recent successes in simulating protein structure and folding dynamics have demonstrated the power of molecular dynamics to predict the long timescale behaviour of proteins. Here, we extend and improve these methods to predict molecular switches that characterize conformational change pathways between the active and inactive state of nitrogen regulatory protein C (NtrC). By employing unbiased Markov state model-based molecular dynamics simulations, we construct a dynamic picture of the activation pathways of this key bacterial signalling protein that is consistent with experimental observations and predicts new mutants that could be used for validation of the mechanism. Moreover, these results suggest a novel mechanistic paradigm for conformational switching.

Automatic Adaptation to Fast Input Changes in a Time-Invariant Neural Circuit

PubMed Central

Bharioke, Arjun; Chklovskii, Dmitri B.

2015-01-01

Neurons must faithfully encode signals that can vary over many orders of magnitude despite having only limited dynamic ranges. For a correlated signal, this dynamic range constraint can be relieved by subtracting away components of the signal that can be predicted from the past, a strategy known as predictive coding, that relies on learning the input statistics. However, the statistics of input natural signals can also vary over very short time scales e.g., following saccades across a visual scene. To maintain a reduced transmission cost to signals with rapidly varying statistics, neuronal circuits implementing predictive coding must also rapidly adapt their properties. Experimentally, in different sensory modalities, sensory neurons have shown such adaptations within 100 ms of an input change. Here, we show first that linear neurons connected in a feedback inhibitory circuit can implement predictive coding. We then show that adding a rectification nonlinearity to such a feedback inhibitory circuit allows it to automatically adapt and approximate the performance of an optimal linear predictive coding network, over a wide range of inputs, while keeping its underlying temporal and synaptic properties unchanged. We demonstrate that the resulting changes to the linearized temporal filters of this nonlinear network match the fast adaptations observed experimentally in different sensory modalities, in different vertebrate species. Therefore, the nonlinear feedback inhibitory network can provide automatic adaptation to fast varying signals, maintaining the dynamic range necessary for accurate neuronal transmission of natural inputs. PMID:26247884

Can investor sentiment be used to predict the stock price? Dynamic analysis based on China stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Kun; Sun, Yi; Qian, Xin

2017-03-01

With the development of the social network, the interaction between investors in stock market became more fast and convenient. Thus, investor sentiment which can influence their investment decisions may be quickly spread and magnified through the network, and to a certain extent the stock market can be affected. This paper collected the user comments data from a popular professional social networking site of China stock market called Xueqiu, then the investor sentiment data can be obtained through semantic analysis. The dynamic analysis on relationship between investor sentiment and stock market is proposed based on Thermal Optimal Path (TOP) method. The results show that the sentiment data was not always leading over stock market price, and it can be used to predict the stock price only when the stock has high investor attention.

Dynamic social networks promote cooperation in experiments with humans

PubMed Central

Rand, David G.; Arbesman, Samuel; Christakis, Nicholas A.

2011-01-01

Human populations are both highly cooperative and highly organized. Human interactions are not random but rather are structured in social networks. Importantly, ties in these networks often are dynamic, changing in response to the behavior of one's social partners. This dynamic structure permits an important form of conditional action that has been explored theoretically but has received little empirical attention: People can respond to the cooperation and defection of those around them by making or breaking network links. Here, we present experimental evidence of the power of using strategic link formation and dissolution, and the network modification it entails, to stabilize cooperation in sizable groups. Our experiments explore large-scale cooperation, where subjects’ cooperative actions are equally beneficial to all those with whom they interact. Consistent with previous research, we find that cooperation decays over time when social networks are shuffled randomly every round or are fixed across all rounds. We also find that, when networks are dynamic but are updated only infrequently, cooperation again fails. However, when subjects can update their network connections frequently, we see a qualitatively different outcome: Cooperation is maintained at a high level through network rewiring. Subjects preferentially break links with defectors and form new links with cooperators, creating an incentive to cooperate and leading to substantial changes in network structure. Our experiments confirm the predictions of a set of evolutionary game theoretic models and demonstrate the important role that dynamic social networks can play in supporting large-scale human cooperation. PMID:22084103

Temporal networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holme, Petter; Saramäki, Jari

2012-10-01

A great variety of systems in nature, society and technology-from the web of sexual contacts to the Internet, from the nervous system to power grids-can be modeled as graphs of vertices coupled by edges. The network structure, describing how the graph is wired, helps us understand, predict and optimize the behavior of dynamical systems. In many cases, however, the edges are not continuously active. As an example, in networks of communication via e-mail, text messages, or phone calls, edges represent sequences of instantaneous or practically instantaneous contacts. In some cases, edges are active for non-negligible periods of time: e.g., the proximity patterns of inpatients at hospitals can be represented by a graph where an edge between two individuals is on throughout the time they are at the same ward. Like network topology, the temporal structure of edge activations can affect dynamics of systems interacting through the network, from disease contagion on the network of patients to information diffusion over an e-mail network. In this review, we present the emergent field of temporal networks, and discuss methods for analyzing topological and temporal structure and models for elucidating their relation to the behavior of dynamical systems. In the light of traditional network theory, one can see this framework as moving the information of when things happen from the dynamical system on the network, to the network itself. Since fundamental properties, such as the transitivity of edges, do not necessarily hold in temporal networks, many of these methods need to be quite different from those for static networks. The study of temporal networks is very interdisciplinary in nature. Reflecting this, even the object of study has many names-temporal graphs, evolving graphs, time-varying graphs, time-aggregated graphs, time-stamped graphs, dynamic networks, dynamic graphs, dynamical graphs, and so on. This review covers different fields where temporal graphs are considered, but does not attempt to unify related terminology-rather, we want to make papers readable across disciplines.

Real-time estimation of incident delay in dynamic and stochastic networks

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

The ability to predict the link travel times is a necessary requirement for most intelligent transportation systems (ITS) applications such as route guidance systems. In an urban traffic environment, these travel times are dynamic and stochastic and ...

Principles of Biomimetic Vascular Network Design Applied to a Tissue-Engineered Liver Scaffold

PubMed Central

Hoganson, David M.; Pryor, Howard I.; Spool, Ira D.; Burns, Owen H.; Gilmore, J. Randall

2010-01-01

Branched vascular networks are a central component of scaffold architecture for solid organ tissue engineering. In this work, seven biomimetic principles were established as the major guiding technical design considerations of a branched vascular network for a tissue-engineered scaffold. These biomimetic design principles were applied to a branched radial architecture to develop a liver-specific vascular network. Iterative design changes and computational fluid dynamic analysis were used to optimize the network before mold manufacturing. The vascular network mold was created using a new mold technique that achieves a 1:1 aspect ratio for all channels. In vitro blood flow testing confirmed the physiologic hemodynamics of the network as predicted by computational fluid dynamic analysis. These results indicate that this biomimetic liver vascular network design will provide a foundation for developing complex vascular networks for solid organ tissue engineering that achieve physiologic blood flow. PMID:20001254

Principles of biomimetic vascular network design applied to a tissue-engineered liver scaffold.

PubMed

Hoganson, David M; Pryor, Howard I; Spool, Ira D; Burns, Owen H; Gilmore, J Randall; Vacanti, Joseph P

2010-05-01

Branched vascular networks are a central component of scaffold architecture for solid organ tissue engineering. In this work, seven biomimetic principles were established as the major guiding technical design considerations of a branched vascular network for a tissue-engineered scaffold. These biomimetic design principles were applied to a branched radial architecture to develop a liver-specific vascular network. Iterative design changes and computational fluid dynamic analysis were used to optimize the network before mold manufacturing. The vascular network mold was created using a new mold technique that achieves a 1:1 aspect ratio for all channels. In vitro blood flow testing confirmed the physiologic hemodynamics of the network as predicted by computational fluid dynamic analysis. These results indicate that this biomimetic liver vascular network design will provide a foundation for developing complex vascular networks for solid organ tissue engineering that achieve physiologic blood flow.

Identifying protein complex by integrating characteristic of core-attachment into dynamic PPI network.

PubMed

Shen, Xianjun; Yi, Li; Jiang, Xingpeng; He, Tingting; Yang, Jincai; Xie, Wei; Hu, Po; Hu, Xiaohua

2017-01-01

How to identify protein complex is an important and challenging task in proteomics. It would make great contribution to our knowledge of molecular mechanism in cell life activities. However, the inherent organization and dynamic characteristic of cell system have rarely been incorporated into the existing algorithms for detecting protein complexes because of the limitation of protein-protein interaction (PPI) data produced by high throughput techniques. The availability of time course gene expression profile enables us to uncover the dynamics of molecular networks and improve the detection of protein complexes. In order to achieve this goal, this paper proposes a novel algorithm DCA (Dynamic Core-Attachment). It detects protein-complex core comprising of continually expressed and highly connected proteins in dynamic PPI network, and then the protein complex is formed by including the attachments with high adhesion into the core. The integration of core-attachment feature into the dynamic PPI network is responsible for the superiority of our algorithm. DCA has been applied on two different yeast dynamic PPI networks and the experimental results show that it performs significantly better than the state-of-the-art techniques in terms of prediction accuracy, hF-measure and statistical significance in biology. In addition, the identified complexes with strong biological significance provide potential candidate complexes for biologists to validate.

Spatiotemporal properties of microsaccades: Model predictions and experimental tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jian-Fang; Yuan, Wu-Jie; Zhou, Zhao

2016-10-01

Microsaccades are involuntary and very small eye movements during fixation. Recently, the microsaccade-related neural dynamics have been extensively investigated both in experiments and by constructing neural network models. Experimentally, microsaccades also exhibit many behavioral properties. It’s well known that the behavior properties imply the underlying neural dynamical mechanisms, and so are determined by neural dynamics. The behavioral properties resulted from neural responses to microsaccades, however, are not yet understood and are rarely studied theoretically. Linking neural dynamics to behavior is one of the central goals of neuroscience. In this paper, we provide behavior predictions on spatiotemporal properties of microsaccades according to microsaccade-induced neural dynamics in a cascading network model, which includes both retinal adaptation and short-term depression (STD) at thalamocortical synapses. We also successfully give experimental tests in the statistical sense. Our results provide the first behavior description of microsaccades based on neural dynamics induced by behaving activity, and so firstly link neural dynamics to behavior of microsaccades. These results indicate strongly that the cascading adaptations play an important role in the study of microsaccades. Our work may be useful for further investigations of the microsaccadic behavioral properties and of the underlying neural dynamical mechanisms responsible for the behavioral properties.

Estimation of Dynamic Systems for Gene Regulatory Networks from Dependent Time-Course Data.

PubMed

Kim, Yoonji; Kim, Jaejik

2018-06-15

Dynamic system consisting of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is a well-known tool for describing dynamic nature of gene regulatory networks (GRNs), and the dynamic features of GRNs are usually captured through time-course gene expression data. Owing to high-throughput technologies, time-course gene expression data have complex structures such as heteroscedasticity, correlations between genes, and time dependence. Since gene experiments typically yield highly noisy data with small sample size, for a more accurate prediction of the dynamics, the complex structures should be taken into account in ODE models. Hence, this study proposes an ODE model considering such data structures and a fast and stable estimation method for the ODE parameters based on the generalized profiling approach with data smoothing techniques. The proposed method also provides statistical inference for the ODE estimator and it is applied to a zebrafish retina cell network.

Voltage Imaging of Waking Mouse Cortex Reveals Emergence of Critical Neuronal Dynamics

PubMed Central

Scott, Gregory; Fagerholm, Erik D.; Mutoh, Hiroki; Leech, Robert; Sharp, David J.; Shew, Woodrow L.

2014-01-01

Complex cognitive processes require neuronal activity to be coordinated across multiple scales, ranging from local microcircuits to cortex-wide networks. However, multiscale cortical dynamics are not well understood because few experimental approaches have provided sufficient support for hypotheses involving multiscale interactions. To address these limitations, we used, in experiments involving mice, genetically encoded voltage indicator imaging, which measures cortex-wide electrical activity at high spatiotemporal resolution. Here we show that, as mice recovered from anesthesia, scale-invariant spatiotemporal patterns of neuronal activity gradually emerge. We show for the first time that this scale-invariant activity spans four orders of magnitude in awake mice. In contrast, we found that the cortical dynamics of anesthetized mice were not scale invariant. Our results bridge empirical evidence from disparate scales and support theoretical predictions that the awake cortex operates in a dynamical regime known as criticality. The criticality hypothesis predicts that small-scale cortical dynamics are governed by the same principles as those governing larger-scale dynamics. Importantly, these scale-invariant principles also optimize certain aspects of information processing. Our results suggest that during the emergence from anesthesia, criticality arises as information processing demands increase. We expect that, as measurement tools advance toward larger scales and greater resolution, the multiscale framework offered by criticality will continue to provide quantitative predictions and insight on how neurons, microcircuits, and large-scale networks are dynamically coordinated in the brain. PMID:25505314

Neural Network Assisted Inverse Dynamic Guidance for Terminally Constrained Entry Flight

PubMed Central

Chen, Wanchun

2014-01-01

This paper presents a neural network assisted entry guidance law that is designed by applying Bézier approximation. It is shown that a fully constrained approximation of a reference trajectory can be made by using the Bézier curve. Applying this approximation, an inverse dynamic system for an entry flight is solved to generate guidance command. The guidance solution thus gotten ensures terminal constraints for position, flight path, and azimuth angle. In order to ensure terminal velocity constraint, a prediction of the terminal velocity is required, based on which, the approximated Bézier curve is adjusted. An artificial neural network is used for this prediction of the terminal velocity. The method enables faster implementation in achieving fully constrained entry flight. Results from simulations indicate improved performance of the neural network assisted method. The scheme is expected to have prospect for further research on automated onboard control of terminal velocity for both reentry and terminal guidance laws. PMID:24723821

A comparison of two types of neural network for weld quality prediction in small scale resistance spot welding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Xiaodong; Wang, Yuanxun; Zhao, Dawei; Huang, YongAn

2017-09-01

Our study aims at developing an effective quality monitoring system in small scale resistance spot welding of titanium alloy. The measured electrical signals were interpreted in combination with the nugget development. Features were extracted from the dynamic resistance and electrode voltage curve. A higher welding current generally indicated a lower overall dynamic resistance level. A larger electrode voltage peak and higher change rate of electrode voltage could be detected under a smaller electrode force or higher welding current condition. Variation of the extracted features and weld quality was found more sensitive to the change of welding current than electrode force. Different neural network model were proposed for weld quality prediction. The back propagation neural network was more proper in failure load estimation. The probabilistic neural network model was more appropriate to be applied in quality level classification. A real-time and on-line weld quality monitoring system may be developed by taking advantages of both methods.

Evaluation and prediction of solar radiation for energy management based on neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldoshina, O. V.; Van Tai, Dinh

2017-08-01

Currently, there is a high rate of distribution of renewable energy sources and distributed power generation based on intelligent networks; therefore, meteorological forecasts are particularly useful for planning and managing the energy system in order to increase its overall efficiency and productivity. The application of artificial neural networks (ANN) in the field of photovoltaic energy is presented in this article. Implemented in this study, two periodically repeating dynamic ANS, that are the concentration of the time delay of a neural network (CTDNN) and the non-linear autoregression of a network with exogenous inputs of the NAEI, are used in the development of a model for estimating and daily forecasting of solar radiation. ANN show good productivity, as reliable and accurate models of daily solar radiation are obtained. This allows to successfully predict the photovoltaic output power for this installation. The potential of the proposed method for controlling the energy of the electrical network is shown using the example of the application of the NAEI network for predicting the electric load.

Dynamical graph theory networks techniques for the analysis of sparse connectivity networks in dementia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahmassebi, Amirhessam; Pinker-Domenig, Katja; Wengert, Georg; Lobbes, Marc; Stadlbauer, Andreas; Romero, Francisco J.; Morales, Diego P.; Castillo, Encarnacion; Garcia, Antonio; Botella, Guillermo; Meyer-Bäse, Anke

2017-05-01

Graph network models in dementia have become an important computational technique in neuroscience to study fundamental organizational principles of brain structure and function of neurodegenerative diseases such as dementia. The graph connectivity is reflected in the connectome, the complete set of structural and functional connections of the graph network, which is mostly based on simple Pearson correlation links. In contrast to simple Pearson correlation networks, the partial correlations (PC) only identify direct correlations while indirect associations are eliminated. In addition to this, the state-of-the-art techniques in brain research are based on static graph theory, which is unable to capture the dynamic behavior of the brain connectivity, as it alters with disease evolution. We propose a new research avenue in neuroimaging connectomics based on combining dynamic graph network theory and modeling strategies at different time scales. We present the theoretical framework for area aggregation and time-scale modeling in brain networks as they pertain to disease evolution in dementia. This novel paradigm is extremely powerful, since we can derive both static parameters pertaining to node and area parameters, as well as dynamic parameters, such as system's eigenvalues. By implementing and analyzing dynamically both disease driven PC-networks and regular concentration networks, we reveal differences in the structure of these network that play an important role in the temporal evolution of this disease. The described research is key to advance biomedical research on novel disease prediction trajectories and dementia therapies.

Dopamine D1 signaling organizes network dynamics underlying working memory.

PubMed

Roffman, Joshua L; Tanner, Alexandra S; Eryilmaz, Hamdi; Rodriguez-Thompson, Anais; Silverstein, Noah J; Ho, New Fei; Nitenson, Adam Z; Chonde, Daniel B; Greve, Douglas N; Abi-Dargham, Anissa; Buckner, Randy L; Manoach, Dara S; Rosen, Bruce R; Hooker, Jacob M; Catana, Ciprian

2016-06-01

Local prefrontal dopamine signaling supports working memory by tuning pyramidal neurons to task-relevant stimuli. Enabled by simultaneous positron emission tomography-magnetic resonance imaging (PET-MRI), we determined whether neuromodulatory effects of dopamine scale to the level of cortical networks and coordinate their interplay during working memory. Among network territories, mean cortical D1 receptor densities differed substantially but were strongly interrelated, suggesting cross-network regulation. Indeed, mean cortical D1 density predicted working memory-emergent decoupling of the frontoparietal and default networks, which respectively manage task-related and internal stimuli. In contrast, striatal D1 predicted opposing effects within these two networks but no between-network effects. These findings specifically link cortical dopamine signaling to network crosstalk that redirects cognitive resources to working memory, echoing neuromodulatory effects of D1 signaling on the level of cortical microcircuits.

Dopamine D1 signaling organizes network dynamics underlying working memory

PubMed Central

Roffman, Joshua L.; Tanner, Alexandra S.; Eryilmaz, Hamdi; Rodriguez-Thompson, Anais; Silverstein, Noah J.; Ho, New Fei; Nitenson, Adam Z.; Chonde, Daniel B.; Greve, Douglas N.; Abi-Dargham, Anissa; Buckner, Randy L.; Manoach, Dara S.; Rosen, Bruce R.; Hooker, Jacob M.; Catana, Ciprian

2016-01-01

Local prefrontal dopamine signaling supports working memory by tuning pyramidal neurons to task-relevant stimuli. Enabled by simultaneous positron emission tomography–magnetic resonance imaging (PET-MRI), we determined whether neuromodulatory effects of dopamine scale to the level of cortical networks and coordinate their interplay during working memory. Among network territories, mean cortical D1 receptor densities differed substantially but were strongly interrelated, suggesting cross-network regulation. Indeed, mean cortical D1 density predicted working memory–emergent decoupling of the frontoparietal and default networks, which respectively manage task-related and internal stimuli. In contrast, striatal D1 predicted opposing effects within these two networks but no between-network effects. These findings specifically link cortical dopamine signaling to network crosstalk that redirects cognitive resources to working memory, echoing neuromodulatory effects of D1 signaling on the level of cortical microcircuits. PMID:27386561

Mean-field approximations of fixation time distributions of evolutionary game dynamics on graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ying, Li-Min; Zhou, Jie; Tang, Ming; Guan, Shu-Guang; Zou, Yong

2018-02-01

The mean fixation time is often not accurate for describing the timescales of fixation probabilities of evolutionary games taking place on complex networks. We simulate the game dynamics on top of complex network topologies and approximate the fixation time distributions using a mean-field approach. We assume that there are two absorbing states. Numerically, we show that the mean fixation time is sufficient in characterizing the evolutionary timescales when network structures are close to the well-mixing condition. In contrast, the mean fixation time shows large inaccuracies when networks become sparse. The approximation accuracy is determined by the network structure, and hence by the suitability of the mean-field approach. The numerical results show good agreement with the theoretical predictions.

Experimental evidence for the effect of habitat loss on the dynamics of migratory networks.

PubMed

Betini, Gustavo S; Fitzpatrick, Mark J; Norris, D Ryan

2015-06-01

Migratory animals present a unique challenge for understanding the consequences of habitat loss on population dynamics because individuals are typically distributed over a series of interconnected breeding and non-breeding sites (termed migratory network). Using replicated breeding and non-breeding populations of Drosophila melanogaster and a mathematical model, we investigated three hypotheses to explain how habitat loss influenced the dynamics of populations in networks with different degrees of connectivity between breeding and non-breeding seasons. We found that habitat loss increased the degree of connectivity in the network and influenced population size at sites that were not directly connected to the site where habitat loss occurred. However, connected networks only buffered global population declines at high levels of habitat loss. Our results demonstrate why knowledge of the patterns of connectivity across a species range is critical for predicting the effects of environmental change and provide empirical evidence for why connected migratory networks are commonly found in nature. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Increasingly diverse brain dynamics in the developmental arc: using Pareto-optimization to infer a mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Evelyn; Giusti, Chad; Baum, Graham; Gu, Shi; Pollock, Eli; Kahn, Ari; Roalf, David; Moore, Tyler; Ruparel, Kosha; Gur, Ruben; Gur, Raquel; Satterthwaite, Theodore; Bassett, Danielle

Motivated by a recent demonstration that the network architecture of white matter supports emerging control of diverse neural dynamics as children mature into adults, we seek to investigate structural mechanisms that support these changes. Beginning from a network representation of diffusion imaging data, we simulate network evolution with a set of simple growth rules built on principles of network control. Notably, the optimal evolutionary trajectory displays a striking correspondence to the progression of child to adult brain, suggesting that network control is a driver of development. More generally, and in comparison to the complete set of available models, we demonstrate that all brain networks from child to adult are structured in a manner highly optimized for the control of diverse neural dynamics. Within this near-optimality, we observe differences in the predicted control mechanisms of the child and adult brains, suggesting that the white matter architecture in children has a greater potential to increasingly support brain state transitions, potentially underlying cognitive switching.

Volunteerism: Social Network Dynamics and Education.

PubMed

Ajrouch, Kristine J; Antonucci, Toni C; Webster, Noah J

2016-03-01

. We examine how changes in social networks influence volunteerism through bridging (diversity) and bonding (spending time) mechanisms. We further investigate whether social network change substitutes or amplifies the effects of education on volunteerism. . Data (n = 543) are drawn from a two-wave survey of Social Relations and Health over the Life Course (SRHLC). Zero-inflated negative binomial regressions were conducted to test competing hypotheses about how changes in social network characteristics alone and in conjunction with education level predict likelihood and frequency of volunteering. . Changes in social networks were associated with volunteerism: as the proportion of family members decreased and the average number of network members living within a one-hour drive increased over time, participants reported higher odds of volunteering. The substitution hypothesis was supported: social networks that exhibited more geographic proximity and greater contact frequency over-time compensated for lower levels of education to predict volunteering more hours. . The dynamic role of social networks and the ways in which they may work through bridging and bonding to influence both likelihood and frequency of volunteering are discussed. The potential benefits of volunteerism in light of longer life expectancies and smaller families are also considered. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Regulatory network rewiring for secondary metabolism in Arabidopsis thaliana under various conditions

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Plant secondary metabolites are critical to various biological processes. However, the regulations of these metabolites are complex because of regulatory rewiring or crosstalk. To unveil how regulatory behaviors on secondary metabolism reshape biological processes, we constructed and analyzed a dynamic regulatory network of secondary metabolic pathways in Arabidopsis. Results The dynamic regulatory network was constructed through integrating co-expressed gene pairs and regulatory interactions. Regulatory interactions were either predicted by conserved transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs) or proved by experiments. We found that integrating two data (co-expression and predicted regulatory interactions) enhanced the number of highly confident regulatory interactions by over 10% compared with using single data. The dynamic changes of regulatory network systematically manifested regulatory rewiring to explain the mechanism of regulation, such as in terpenoids metabolism, the regulatory crosstalk of RAV1 (AT1G13260) and ATHB1 (AT3G01470) on HMG1 (hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA reductase, AT1G76490); and regulation of RAV1 on epoxysqualene biosynthesis and sterol biosynthesis. Besides, we investigated regulatory rewiring with expression, network topology and upstream signaling pathways. Regulatory rewiring was revealed by the variability of genes’ expression: pathway genes and transcription factors (TFs) were significantly differentially expressed under different conditions (such as terpenoids biosynthetic genes in tissue experiments and E2F/DP family members in genotype experiments). Both network topology and signaling pathways supported regulatory rewiring. For example, we discovered correlation among the numbers of pathway genes, TFs and network topology: one-gene pathways (such as δ-carotene biosynthesis) were regulated by a fewer TFs, and were not critical to metabolic network because of their low degrees in topology. Upstream signaling pathways of 50 TFs were identified to comprehend the underlying mechanism of TFs’ regulatory rewiring. Conclusion Overall, this dynamic regulatory network largely improves the understanding of perplexed regulatory rewiring in secondary metabolism in Arabidopsis. PMID:24993737

Human Communication Dynamics in Digital Footsteps: A Study of the Agreement between Self-Reported Ties and Email Networks

PubMed Central

Wuchty, Stefan; Uzzi, Brian

2011-01-01

Digital communication data has created opportunities to advance the knowledge of human dynamics in many areas, including national security, behavioral health, and consumerism. While digital data uniquely captures the totality of a person's communication, past research consistently shows that a subset of contacts makes up a person's “social network” of unique resource providers. To address this gap, we analyzed the correspondence between self-reported social network data and email communication data with the objective of identifying the dynamics in e-communication that correlate with a person's perception of a significant network tie. First, we examined the predictive utility of three popular methods to derive social network data from email data based on volume and reciprocity of bilateral email exchanges. Second, we observed differences in the response dynamics along self-reported ties, allowing us to introduce and test a new method that incorporates time-resolved exchange data. Using a range of robustness checks for measurement and misreporting errors in self-report and email data, we find that the methods have similar predictive utility. Although e-communication has lowered communication costs with large numbers of persons, and potentially extended our number of, and reach to contacts, our case results suggest that underlying behavioral patterns indicative of friendship or professional contacts continue to operate in a classical fashion in email interactions. PMID:22114665

Extended Kalman Filter for Estimation of Parameters in Nonlinear State-Space Models of Biochemical Networks

PubMed Central

Sun, Xiaodian; Jin, Li; Xiong, Momiao

2008-01-01

It is system dynamics that determines the function of cells, tissues and organisms. To develop mathematical models and estimate their parameters are an essential issue for studying dynamic behaviors of biological systems which include metabolic networks, genetic regulatory networks and signal transduction pathways, under perturbation of external stimuli. In general, biological dynamic systems are partially observed. Therefore, a natural way to model dynamic biological systems is to employ nonlinear state-space equations. Although statistical methods for parameter estimation of linear models in biological dynamic systems have been developed intensively in the recent years, the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear dynamic systems remains a challenging task. In this report, we apply extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear state-space models. To evaluate the performance of the EKF for parameter estimation, we apply the EKF to a simulation dataset and two real datasets: JAK-STAT signal transduction pathway and Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK signaling transduction pathways datasets. The preliminary results show that EKF can accurately estimate the parameters and predict states in nonlinear state-space equations for modeling dynamic biochemical networks. PMID:19018286

Atomic switch networks as complex adaptive systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharnhorst, Kelsey S.; Carbajal, Juan P.; Aguilera, Renato C.; Sandouk, Eric J.; Aono, Masakazu; Stieg, Adam Z.; Gimzewski, James K.

2018-03-01

Complexity is an increasingly crucial aspect of societal, environmental and biological phenomena. Using a dense unorganized network of synthetic synapses it is shown that a complex adaptive system can be physically created on a microchip built especially for complex problems. These neuro-inspired atomic switch networks (ASNs) are a dynamic system with inherent and distributed memory, recurrent pathways, and up to a billion interacting elements. We demonstrate key parameters describing self-organized behavior such as non-linearity, power law dynamics, and multistate switching regimes. Device dynamics are then investigated using a feedback loop which provides control over current and voltage power-law behavior. Wide ranging prospective applications include understanding and eventually predicting future events that display complex emergent behavior in the critical regime.

Dynamic weight evolution network with preferential attachment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Meifeng; Xie, Qi; Li, Lei

2014-12-01

A dynamic weight evolution network with preferential attachment is introduced. The network includes two significant characteristics. (i) Topological growth: triggered by newly added node with M links at each time step, each new edge carries an initial weight growing nonlinearly with time. (ii) Weight dynamics: the weight between two existing nodes experiences increasing or decreasing in a nonlinear way. By using continuum theory and mean-field method, we study the strength, the degree, the weight and their distributions. We find that the distributions exhibit a power-law feature. In particular, the relationship between the degree and the strength is nonlinear, and the power-law exponents of the three are the same. All the theoretical predictions are successfully contrasted with numerical simulations.

The many faces of graph dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pignolet, Yvonne Anne; Roy, Matthieu; Schmid, Stefan; Tredan, Gilles

2017-06-01

The topological structure of complex networks has fascinated researchers for several decades, resulting in the discovery of many universal properties and reoccurring characteristics of different kinds of networks. However, much less is known today about the network dynamics: indeed, complex networks in reality are not static, but rather dynamically evolve over time. Our paper is motivated by the empirical observation that network evolution patterns seem far from random, but exhibit structure. Moreover, the specific patterns appear to depend on the network type, contradicting the existence of a ‘one fits it all’ model. However, we still lack observables to quantify these intuitions, as well as metrics to compare graph evolutions. Such observables and metrics are needed for extrapolating or predicting evolutions, as well as for interpolating graph evolutions. To explore the many faces of graph dynamics and to quantify temporal changes, this paper suggests to build upon the concept of centrality, a measure of node importance in a network. In particular, we introduce the notion of centrality distance, a natural similarity measure for two graphs which depends on a given centrality, characterizing the graph type. Intuitively, centrality distances reflect the extent to which (non-anonymous) node roles are different or, in case of dynamic graphs, have changed over time, between two graphs. We evaluate the centrality distance approach for five evolutionary models and seven real-world social and physical networks. Our results empirically show the usefulness of centrality distances for characterizing graph dynamics compared to a null-model of random evolution, and highlight the differences between the considered scenarios. Interestingly, our approach allows us to compare the dynamics of very different networks, in terms of scale and evolution speed.

Static, Dynamic and Semantic Dimensions: Towards a Multidisciplinary Approach of Social Networks Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thovex, Christophe; Trichet, Francky

The objective of our work is to extend static and dynamic models of Social Networks Analysis (SNA), by taking conceptual aspects of enterprises and institutions social graph into account. The originality of our multidisciplinary work is to introduce abstract notions of electro-physic to define new measures in SNA, for new decision-making functions dedicated to Human Resource Management (HRM). This paper introduces a multidimensional system and new measures: (1) a tension measure for social network analysis, (2) an electrodynamic, predictive and semantic system for recommendations on social graphs evolutions and (3) a reactance measure used to evaluate the individual stress at work of the members of a social network.

The combination of circle topology and leaky integrator neurons remarkably improves the performance of echo state network on time series prediction.

PubMed

Xue, Fangzheng; Li, Qian; Li, Xiumin

2017-01-01

Recently, echo state network (ESN) has attracted a great deal of attention due to its high accuracy and efficient learning performance. Compared with the traditional random structure and classical sigmoid units, simple circle topology and leaky integrator neurons have more advantages on reservoir computing of ESN. In this paper, we propose a new model of ESN with both circle reservoir structure and leaky integrator units. By comparing the prediction capability on Mackey-Glass chaotic time series of four ESN models: classical ESN, circle ESN, traditional leaky integrator ESN, circle leaky integrator ESN, we find that our circle leaky integrator ESN shows significantly better performance than other ESNs with roughly 2 orders of magnitude reduction of the predictive error. Moreover, this model has stronger ability to approximate nonlinear dynamics and resist noise than conventional ESN and ESN with only simple circle structure or leaky integrator neurons. Our results show that the combination of circle topology and leaky integrator neurons can remarkably increase dynamical diversity and meanwhile decrease the correlation of reservoir states, which contribute to the significant improvement of computational performance of Echo state network on time series prediction.

Robust co-regulation of tyrosine phosphorylation sites on proteins reveals novel protein interactions†

PubMed Central

Naegle, Kristen M.; White, Forest M.; Lauffenburger, Douglas A.; Yaffe, Michael B.

2012-01-01

Cell signaling networks propagate information from extracellular cues via dynamic modulation of protein–protein interactions in a context-dependent manner. Networks based on receptor tyrosine kinases (RTKs), for example, phosphorylate intracellular proteins in response to extracellular ligands, resulting in dynamic protein–protein interactions that drive phenotypic changes. Most commonly used methods for discovering these protein–protein interactions, however, are optimized for detecting stable, longer-lived complexes, rather than the type of transient interactions that are essential components of dynamic signaling networks such as those mediated by RTKs. Substrate phosphorylation downstream of RTK activation modifies substrate activity and induces phospho-specific binding interactions, resulting in the formation of large transient macromolecular signaling complexes. Since protein complex formation should follow the trajectory of events that drive it, we reasoned that mining phosphoproteomic datasets for highly similar dynamic behavior of measured phosphorylation sites on different proteins could be used to predict novel, transient protein–protein interactions that had not been previously identified. We applied this method to explore signaling events downstream of EGFR stimulation. Our computational analysis of robustly co-regulated phosphorylation sites, based on multiple clustering analysis of quantitative time-resolved mass-spectrometry phosphoproteomic data, not only identified known sitewise-specific recruitment of proteins to EGFR, but also predicted novel, a priori interactions. A particularly intriguing prediction of EGFR interaction with the cytoskeleton-associated protein PDLIM1 was verified within cells using co-immunoprecipitation and in situ proximity ligation assays. Our approach thus offers a new way to discover protein–protein interactions in a dynamic context- and phosphorylation site-specific manner. PMID:22851037

Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes

PubMed Central

Sabes, Philip N.

2015-01-01

Tracking moving objects, including one’s own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, “probabilistic population codes.” We show that a recurrent neural network—a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)—that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states. PMID:26540152

Prediction and validation of protein intermediate states from structurally rich ensembles and coarse-grained simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orellana, Laura; Yoluk, Ozge; Carrillo, Oliver; Orozco, Modesto; Lindahl, Erik

2016-08-01

Protein conformational changes are at the heart of cell functions, from signalling to ion transport. However, the transient nature of the intermediates along transition pathways hampers their experimental detection, making the underlying mechanisms elusive. Here we retrieve dynamic information on the actual transition routes from principal component analysis (PCA) of structurally-rich ensembles and, in combination with coarse-grained simulations, explore the conformational landscapes of five well-studied proteins. Modelling them as elastic networks in a hybrid elastic-network Brownian dynamics simulation (eBDIMS), we generate trajectories connecting stable end-states that spontaneously sample the crystallographic motions, predicting the structures of known intermediates along the paths. We also show that the explored non-linear routes can delimit the lowest energy passages between end-states sampled by atomistic molecular dynamics. The integrative methodology presented here provides a powerful framework to extract and expand dynamic pathway information from the Protein Data Bank, as well as to validate sampling methods in general.

Data-driven Modeling of Metal-oxide Sensors with Dynamic Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosangi, Rakesh; Gutierrez-Osuna, Ricardo

2011-09-01

We present a data-driven probabilistic framework to model the transient response of MOX sensors modulated with a sequence of voltage steps. Analytical models of MOX sensors are usually built based on the physico-chemical properties of the sensing materials. Although building these models provides an insight into the sensor behavior, they also require a thorough understanding of the underlying operating principles. Here we propose a data-driven approach to characterize the dynamical relationship between sensor inputs and outputs. Namely, we use dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), probabilistic models that represent temporal relations between a set of random variables. We identify a set of control variables that influence the sensor responses, create a graphical representation that captures the causal relations between these variables, and finally train the model with experimental data. We validated the approach on experimental data in terms of predictive accuracy and classification performance. Our results show that DBNs can accurately predict the dynamic response of MOX sensors, as well as capture the discriminatory information present in the sensor transients.

Containment control of networked autonomous underwater vehicles: A predictor-based neural DSC design.

PubMed

Peng, Zhouhua; Wang, Dan; Wang, Wei; Liu, Lu

2015-11-01

This paper investigates the containment control problem of networked autonomous underwater vehicles in the presence of model uncertainty and unknown ocean disturbances. A predictor-based neural dynamic surface control design method is presented to develop the distributed adaptive containment controllers, under which the trajectories of follower vehicles nearly converge to the dynamic convex hull spanned by multiple reference trajectories over a directed network. Prediction errors, rather than tracking errors, are used to update the neural adaptation laws, which are independent of the tracking error dynamics, resulting in two time-scales to govern the entire system. The stability property of the closed-loop network is established via Lyapunov analysis, and transient property is quantified in terms of L2 norms of the derivatives of neural weights, which are shown to be smaller than the classical neural dynamic surface control approach. Comparative studies are given to show the substantial improvements of the proposed new method. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social network models predict movement and connectivity in ecological landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fletcher, R.J.; Acevedo, M.A.; Reichert, Brian E.; Pias, Kyle E.; Kitchens, W.M.

2011-01-01

Network analysis is on the rise across scientific disciplines because of its ability to reveal complex, and often emergent, patterns and dynamics. Nonetheless, a growing concern in network analysis is the use of limited data for constructing networks. This concern is strikingly relevant to ecology and conservation biology, where network analysis is used to infer connectivity across landscapes. In this context, movement among patches is the crucial parameter for interpreting connectivity but because of the difficulty of collecting reliable movement data, most network analysis proceeds with only indirect information on movement across landscapes rather than using observed movement to construct networks. Statistical models developed for social networks provide promising alternatives for landscape network construction because they can leverage limited movement information to predict linkages. Using two mark-recapture datasets on individual movement and connectivity across landscapes, we test whether commonly used network constructions for interpreting connectivity can predict actual linkages and network structure, and we contrast these approaches to social network models. We find that currently applied network constructions for assessing connectivity consistently, and substantially, overpredict actual connectivity, resulting in considerable overestimation of metapopulation lifetime. Furthermore, social network models provide accurate predictions of network structure, and can do so with remarkably limited data on movement. Social network models offer a flexible and powerful way for not only understanding the factors influencing connectivity but also for providing more reliable estimates of connectivity and metapopulation persistence in the face of limited data.

Balancing building and maintenance costs in growing transport networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bottinelli, Arianna; Louf, Rémi; Gherardi, Marco

2017-09-01

The costs associated to the length of links impose unavoidable constraints to the growth of natural and artificial transport networks. When future network developments cannot be predicted, the costs of building and maintaining connections cannot be minimized simultaneously, requiring competing optimization mechanisms. Here, we study a one-parameter nonequilibrium model driven by an optimization functional, defined as the convex combination of building cost and maintenance cost. By varying the coefficient of the combination, the model interpolates between global and local length minimization, i.e., between minimum spanning trees and a local version known as dynamical minimum spanning trees. We show that cost balance within this ensemble of dynamical networks is a sufficient ingredient for the emergence of tradeoffs between the network's total length and transport efficiency, and of optimal strategies of construction. At the transition between two qualitatively different regimes, the dynamics builds up power-law distributed waiting times between global rearrangements, indicating a point of nonoptimality. Finally, we use our model as a framework to analyze empirical ant trail networks, showing its relevance as a null model for cost-constrained network formation.

An adaptive transmission protocol for managing dynamic shared states in collaborative surgical simulation.

PubMed

Qin, J; Choi, K S; Ho, Simon S M; Heng, P A

2008-01-01

A force prediction algorithm is proposed to facilitate virtual-reality (VR) based collaborative surgical simulation by reducing the effect of network latencies. State regeneration is used to correct the estimated prediction. This algorithm is incorporated into an adaptive transmission protocol in which auxiliary features such as view synchronization and coupling control are equipped to ensure the system consistency. We implemented this protocol using multi-threaded technique on a cluster-based network architecture.

Predicting and Controlling Complex Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-22

vulnerability and to generate a global view of network security against attacks. By deploying network sensors at particular points in the Internet ...48006, 1-6 (2011). 2 13. L. Huang and Y.-C. Lai, “Cascading dynamics in complex quantum networks,” Chaos 21, 025107, 1-6 (2011). This work was selected...by July 2011 issue of Virtual Journal of Quantum Information (http://www.vjquantuminfo.org). 14. W.-X. Wang, Y.-C. Lai, and D. Armbruster, “Cascading

Spectral properties of the temporal evolution of brain network structure.

PubMed

Wang, Rong; Zhang, Zhen-Zhen; Ma, Jun; Yang, Yong; Lin, Pan; Wu, Ying

2015-12-01

The temporal evolution properties of the brain network are crucial for complex brain processes. In this paper, we investigate the differences in the dynamic brain network during resting and visual stimulation states in a task-positive subnetwork, task-negative subnetwork, and whole-brain network. The dynamic brain network is first constructed from human functional magnetic resonance imaging data based on the sliding window method, and then the eigenvalues corresponding to the network are calculated. We use eigenvalue analysis to analyze the global properties of eigenvalues and the random matrix theory (RMT) method to measure the local properties. For global properties, the shifting of the eigenvalue distribution and the decrease in the largest eigenvalue are linked to visual stimulation in all networks. For local properties, the short-range correlation in eigenvalues as measured by the nearest neighbor spacing distribution is not always sensitive to visual stimulation. However, the long-range correlation in eigenvalues as evaluated by spectral rigidity and number variance not only predicts the universal behavior of the dynamic brain network but also suggests non-consistent changes in different networks. These results demonstrate that the dynamic brain network is more random for the task-positive subnetwork and whole-brain network under visual stimulation but is more regular for the task-negative subnetwork. Our findings provide deeper insight into the importance of spectral properties in the functional brain network, especially the incomparable role of RMT in revealing the intrinsic properties of complex systems.

Spectral properties of the temporal evolution of brain network structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rong; Zhang, Zhen-Zhen; Ma, Jun; Yang, Yong; Lin, Pan; Wu, Ying

2015-12-01

The temporal evolution properties of the brain network are crucial for complex brain processes. In this paper, we investigate the differences in the dynamic brain network during resting and visual stimulation states in a task-positive subnetwork, task-negative subnetwork, and whole-brain network. The dynamic brain network is first constructed from human functional magnetic resonance imaging data based on the sliding window method, and then the eigenvalues corresponding to the network are calculated. We use eigenvalue analysis to analyze the global properties of eigenvalues and the random matrix theory (RMT) method to measure the local properties. For global properties, the shifting of the eigenvalue distribution and the decrease in the largest eigenvalue are linked to visual stimulation in all networks. For local properties, the short-range correlation in eigenvalues as measured by the nearest neighbor spacing distribution is not always sensitive to visual stimulation. However, the long-range correlation in eigenvalues as evaluated by spectral rigidity and number variance not only predicts the universal behavior of the dynamic brain network but also suggests non-consistent changes in different networks. These results demonstrate that the dynamic brain network is more random for the task-positive subnetwork and whole-brain network under visual stimulation but is more regular for the task-negative subnetwork. Our findings provide deeper insight into the importance of spectral properties in the functional brain network, especially the incomparable role of RMT in revealing the intrinsic properties of complex systems.

Distributing flight dynamics products via the World Wide Web

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodard, Mark; Matusow, David

1996-01-01

The NASA Flight Dynamics Products Center (FDPC), which make available selected operations products via the World Wide Web, is reported on. The FDPC can be accessed from any host machine connected to the Internet. It is a multi-mission service which provides Internet users with unrestricted access to the following standard products: antenna contact predictions; ground tracks; orbit ephemerides; mean and osculating orbital elements; earth sensor sun and moon interference predictions; space flight tracking data network summaries; and Shuttle transport system predictions. Several scientific data bases are available through the service.

Modeling Brain Dynamics in Brain Tumor Patients Using the Virtual Brain.

PubMed

Aerts, Hannelore; Schirner, Michael; Jeurissen, Ben; Van Roost, Dirk; Achten, Eric; Ritter, Petra; Marinazzo, Daniele

2018-01-01

Presurgical planning for brain tumor resection aims at delineating eloquent tissue in the vicinity of the lesion to spare during surgery. To this end, noninvasive neuroimaging techniques such as functional MRI and diffusion-weighted imaging fiber tracking are currently employed. However, taking into account this information is often still insufficient, as the complex nonlinear dynamics of the brain impede straightforward prediction of functional outcome after surgical intervention. Large-scale brain network modeling carries the potential to bridge this gap by integrating neuroimaging data with biophysically based models to predict collective brain dynamics. As a first step in this direction, an appropriate computational model has to be selected, after which suitable model parameter values have to be determined. To this end, we simulated large-scale brain dynamics in 25 human brain tumor patients and 11 human control participants using The Virtual Brain, an open-source neuroinformatics platform. Local and global model parameters of the Reduced Wong-Wang model were individually optimized and compared between brain tumor patients and control subjects. In addition, the relationship between model parameters and structural network topology and cognitive performance was assessed. Results showed (1) significantly improved prediction accuracy of individual functional connectivity when using individually optimized model parameters; (2) local model parameters that can differentiate between regions directly affected by a tumor, regions distant from a tumor, and regions in a healthy brain; and (3) interesting associations between individually optimized model parameters and structural network topology and cognitive performance.

Past makes future: role of pFC in prediction.

PubMed

Fuster, Joaquín M; Bressler, Steven L

2015-04-01

The pFC enables the essential human capacities for predicting future events and preadapting to them. These capacities rest on both the structure and dynamics of the human pFC. Structurally, pFC, together with posterior association cortex, is at the highest hierarchical level of cortical organization, harboring neural networks that represent complex goal-directed actions. Dynamically, pFC is at the highest level of the perception-action cycle, the circular processing loop through the cortex that interfaces the organism with the environment in the pursuit of goals. In its predictive and preadaptive roles, pFC supports cognitive functions that are critical for the temporal organization of future behavior, including planning, attentional set, working memory, decision-making, and error monitoring. These functions have a common future perspective and are dynamically intertwined in goal-directed action. They all utilize the same neural infrastructure: a vast array of widely distributed, overlapping, and interactive cortical networks of personal memory and semantic knowledge, named cognits, which are formed by synaptic reinforcement in learning and memory acquisition. From this cortex-wide reservoir of memory and knowledge, pFC generates purposeful, goal-directed actions that are preadapted to predicted future events.

Finite volume solution for two-phase flow in a straight capillary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yelkhovsky, Alexander; Pinczewski, W. Val

2018-04-01

The problem of two-phase flow in straight capillaries of polygonal cross section displays many of the dynamic characteristics of rapid interfacial motions associated with pore-scale displacements in porous media. Fluid inertia is known to be important in these displacements but is usually ignored in network models commonly used to predict macroscopic flow properties. This study presents a numerical model for two-phase flow which describes the spatial and temporal evolution of the interface between the fluids. The model is based on an averaged Navier-Stokes equation and is shown to be successful in predicting the complex dynamics of both capillary rise in round capillaries and imbibition along the corners of polygonal capillaries. The model can form the basis for more realistic network models which capture the effect of capillary, viscous, and inertial forces on pore-scale interfacial dynamics and consequent macroscopic flow properties.

Dynamic modelling of microRNA regulation during mesenchymal stem cell differentiation.

PubMed

Weber, Michael; Sotoca, Ana M; Kupfer, Peter; Guthke, Reinhard; van Zoelen, Everardus J

2013-11-12

Network inference from gene expression data is a typical approach to reconstruct gene regulatory networks. During chondrogenic differentiation of human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs), a complex transcriptional network is active and regulates the temporal differentiation progress. As modulators of transcriptional regulation, microRNAs (miRNAs) play a critical role in stem cell differentiation. Integrated network inference aimes at determining interrelations between miRNAs and mRNAs on the basis of expression data as well as miRNA target predictions. We applied the NetGenerator tool in order to infer an integrated gene regulatory network. Time series experiments were performed to measure mRNA and miRNA abundances of TGF-beta1+BMP2 stimulated hMSCs. Network nodes were identified by analysing temporal expression changes, miRNA target gene predictions, time series correlation and literature knowledge. Network inference was performed using NetGenerator to reconstruct a dynamical regulatory model based on the measured data and prior knowledge. The resulting model is robust against noise and shows an optimal trade-off between fitting precision and inclusion of prior knowledge. It predicts the influence of miRNAs on the expression of chondrogenic marker genes and therefore proposes novel regulatory relations in differentiation control. By analysing the inferred network, we identified a previously unknown regulatory effect of miR-524-5p on the expression of the transcription factor SOX9 and the chondrogenic marker genes COL2A1, ACAN and COL10A1. Genome-wide exploration of miRNA-mRNA regulatory relationships is a reasonable approach to identify miRNAs which have so far not been associated with the investigated differentiation process. The NetGenerator tool is able to identify valid gene regulatory networks on the basis of miRNA and mRNA time series data.

Reconstructing gene regulatory networks from knock-out data using Gaussian Noise Model and Pearson Correlation Coefficient.

PubMed

Mohamed Salleh, Faridah Hani; Arif, Shereena Mohd; Zainudin, Suhaila; Firdaus-Raih, Mohd

2015-12-01

A gene regulatory network (GRN) is a large and complex network consisting of interacting elements that, over time, affect each other's state. The dynamics of complex gene regulatory processes are difficult to understand using intuitive approaches alone. To overcome this problem, we propose an algorithm for inferring the regulatory interactions from knock-out data using a Gaussian model combines with Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC). There are several problems relating to GRN construction that have been outlined in this paper. We demonstrated the ability of our proposed method to (1) predict the presence of regulatory interactions between genes, (2) their directionality and (3) their states (activation or suppression). The algorithm was applied to network sizes of 10 and 50 genes from DREAM3 datasets and network sizes of 10 from DREAM4 datasets. The predicted networks were evaluated based on AUROC and AUPR. We discovered that high false positive values were generated by our GRN prediction methods because the indirect regulations have been wrongly predicted as true relationships. We achieved satisfactory results as the majority of sub-networks achieved AUROC values above 0.5. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Novak, Mark; Wootton, J. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Emmerson, Mark; Estes, James A.; Tinker, M. Timothy

2011-01-01

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (∼25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.

Percolation mechanism drives actin gels to the critically connected state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Chiu Fan; Pruessner, Gunnar

2016-05-01

Cell motility and tissue morphogenesis depend crucially on the dynamic remodeling of actomyosin networks. An actomyosin network consists of an actin polymer network connected by cross-linker proteins and motor protein myosins that generate internal stresses on the network. A recent discovery shows that for a range of experimental parameters, actomyosin networks contract to clusters with a power-law size distribution [J. Alvarado, Nat. Phys. 9, 591 (2013), 10.1038/nphys2715]. Here, we argue that actomyosin networks can exhibit a robust critical signature without fine-tuning because the dynamics of the system can be mapped onto a modified version of percolation with trapping (PT), which is known to show critical behavior belonging to the static percolation universality class without the need for fine-tuning of a control parameter. We further employ our PT model to generate experimentally testable predictions.

Study on the Reduced Traffic Congestion Method Based on Dynamic Guidance Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shu-Bin; Wang, Guang-Min; Wang, Tao; Ren, Hua-Ling; Zhang, Lin

2018-05-01

This paper studies how to generate the reasonable information of travelers’ decision in real network. This problem is very complex because the travelers’ decision is constrained by different human behavior. The network conditions can be predicted by using the advanced dynamic OD (Origin-Destination, OD) estimation techniques. Based on the improved mesoscopic traffic model, the predictable dynamic traffic guidance information can be obtained accurately. A consistency algorithm is designed to investigate the travelers’ decision by simulating the dynamic response to guidance information. The simulation results show that the proposed method can provide the best guidance information. Further, a case study is conducted to verify the theoretical results and to draw managerial insights into the potential of dynamic guidance strategy in improving traffic performance. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 71471104, 71771019, 71571109, and 71471167; The University Science and Technology Program Funding Projects of Shandong Province under Grant No. J17KA211; The Project of Public Security Department of Shandong Province under Grant No. GATHT2015-236; The Major Social and Livelihood Special Project of Jinan under Grant No. 20150905

Signaling mechanisms underlying the robustness and tunability of the plant immune network

PubMed Central

Kim, Yungil; Tsuda, Kenichi; Igarashi, Daisuke; Hillmer, Rachel A.; Sakakibara, Hitoshi; Myers, Chad L.; Katagiri, Fumiaki

2014-01-01

Summary How does robust and tunable behavior emerge in a complex biological network? We sought to understand this for the signaling network controlling pattern-triggered immunity (PTI) in Arabidopsis. A dynamic network model containing four major signaling sectors, the jasmonate, ethylene, PAD4, and salicylate sectors, which together explain up to 80% of the PTI level, was built using data for dynamic sector activities and PTI levels under exhaustive combinatorial sector perturbations. Our regularized multiple regression model had a high level of predictive power and captured known and unexpected signal flows in the network. The sole inhibitory sector in the model, the ethylene sector, was central to the network robustness via its inhibition of the jasmonate sector. The model's multiple input sites linked specific signal input patterns varying in strength and timing to different network response patterns, indicating a mechanism enabling tunability. PMID:24439900

Construction and analysis of gene-gene dynamics influence networks based on a Boolean model.

PubMed

Mazaya, Maulida; Trinh, Hung-Cuong; Kwon, Yung-Keun

2017-12-21

Identification of novel gene-gene relations is a crucial issue to understand system-level biological phenomena. To this end, many methods based on a correlation analysis of gene expressions or structural analysis of molecular interaction networks have been proposed. They have a limitation in identifying more complicated gene-gene dynamical relations, though. To overcome this limitation, we proposed a measure to quantify a gene-gene dynamical influence (GDI) using a Boolean network model and constructed a GDI network to indicate existence of a dynamical influence for every ordered pair of genes. It represents how much a state trajectory of a target gene is changed by a knockout mutation subject to a source gene in a gene-gene molecular interaction (GMI) network. Through a topological comparison between GDI and GMI networks, we observed that the former network is denser than the latter network, which implies that there exist many gene pairs of dynamically influencing but molecularly non-interacting relations. In addition, a larger number of hub genes were generated in the GDI network. On the other hand, there was a correlation between these networks such that the degree value of a node was positively correlated to each other. We further investigated the relationships of the GDI value with structural properties and found that there are negative and positive correlations with the length of a shortest path and the number of paths, respectively. In addition, a GDI network could predict a set of genes whose steady-state expression is affected in E. coli gene-knockout experiments. More interestingly, we found that the drug-targets with side-effects have a larger number of outgoing links than the other genes in the GDI network, which implies that they are more likely to influence the dynamics of other genes. Finally, we found biological evidences showing that the gene pairs which are not molecularly interacting but dynamically influential can be considered for novel gene-gene relationships. Taken together, construction and analysis of the GDI network can be a useful approach to identify novel gene-gene relationships in terms of the dynamical influence.

Topological determinants of self-sustained activity in a simple model of excitable dynamics on graphs

PubMed Central

Fretter, Christoph; Lesne, Annick; Hilgetag, Claus C.; Hütt, Marc-Thorsten

2017-01-01

Simple models of excitable dynamics on graphs are an efficient framework for studying the interplay between network topology and dynamics. This topic is of practical relevance to diverse fields, ranging from neuroscience to engineering. Here we analyze how a single excitation propagates through a random network as a function of the excitation threshold, that is, the relative amount of activity in the neighborhood required for the excitation of a node. We observe that two sharp transitions delineate a region of sustained activity. Using analytical considerations and numerical simulation, we show that these transitions originate from the presence of barriers to propagation and the excitation of topological cycles, respectively, and can be predicted from the network topology. Our findings are interpreted in the context of network reverberations and self-sustained activity in neural systems, which is a question of long-standing interest in computational neuroscience. PMID:28186182

Topological determinants of self-sustained activity in a simple model of excitable dynamics on graphs.

PubMed

Fretter, Christoph; Lesne, Annick; Hilgetag, Claus C; Hütt, Marc-Thorsten

2017-02-10

Simple models of excitable dynamics on graphs are an efficient framework for studying the interplay between network topology and dynamics. This topic is of practical relevance to diverse fields, ranging from neuroscience to engineering. Here we analyze how a single excitation propagates through a random network as a function of the excitation threshold, that is, the relative amount of activity in the neighborhood required for the excitation of a node. We observe that two sharp transitions delineate a region of sustained activity. Using analytical considerations and numerical simulation, we show that these transitions originate from the presence of barriers to propagation and the excitation of topological cycles, respectively, and can be predicted from the network topology. Our findings are interpreted in the context of network reverberations and self-sustained activity in neural systems, which is a question of long-standing interest in computational neuroscience.

Topological determinants of self-sustained activity in a simple model of excitable dynamics on graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fretter, Christoph; Lesne, Annick; Hilgetag, Claus C.; Hütt, Marc-Thorsten

2017-02-01

Simple models of excitable dynamics on graphs are an efficient framework for studying the interplay between network topology and dynamics. This topic is of practical relevance to diverse fields, ranging from neuroscience to engineering. Here we analyze how a single excitation propagates through a random network as a function of the excitation threshold, that is, the relative amount of activity in the neighborhood required for the excitation of a node. We observe that two sharp transitions delineate a region of sustained activity. Using analytical considerations and numerical simulation, we show that these transitions originate from the presence of barriers to propagation and the excitation of topological cycles, respectively, and can be predicted from the network topology. Our findings are interpreted in the context of network reverberations and self-sustained activity in neural systems, which is a question of long-standing interest in computational neuroscience.

Effective prediction of biodiversity in tidal flat habitats using an artificial neural network.

PubMed

Yoo, Jae-Won; Lee, Yong-Woo; Lee, Chang-Gun; Kim, Chang-Soo

2013-02-01

Accurate predictions of benthic macrofaunal biodiversity greatly benefit the efficient planning and management of habitat restoration efforts in tidal flat habitats. Artificial neural network (ANN) prediction models for such biodiversity were developed and tested based on 13 biophysical variables, collected from 50 sites of tidal flats along the coast of Korea during 1991-2006. The developed model showed high predictions during training, cross-validation and testing. Besides the training and testing procedures, an independent dataset from a different time period (2007-2010) was used to test the robustness and practical usage of the model. High prediction on the independent dataset (r = 0.84) validated the networks proper learning of predictive relationship and its generality. Key influential variables identified by follow-up sensitivity analyses were related with topographic dimension, environmental heterogeneity, and water column properties. Study demonstrates the successful application of ANN for the accurate prediction of benthic macrofaunal biodiversity and understanding of dynamics of candidate variables. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Energy prediction using spatiotemporal pattern networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Zhanhong; Liu, Chao; Akintayo, Adedotun

This paper presents a novel data-driven technique based on the spatiotemporal pattern network (STPN) for energy/power prediction for complex dynamical systems. Built on symbolic dynamical filtering, the STPN framework is used to capture not only the individual system characteristics but also the pair-wise causal dependencies among different sub-systems. To quantify causal dependencies, a mutual information based metric is presented and an energy prediction approach is subsequently proposed based on the STPN framework. To validate the proposed scheme, two case studies are presented, one involving wind turbine power prediction (supply side energy) using the Western Wind Integration data set generated bymore » the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for identifying spatiotemporal characteristics, and the other, residential electric energy disaggregation (demand side energy) using the Building America 2010 data set from NREL for exploring temporal features. In the energy disaggregation context, convex programming techniques beyond the STPN framework are developed and applied to achieve improved disaggregation performance.« less

Modeling mesoscopic cortical dynamics using a mean-field model of conductance-based networks of adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Zerlaut, Yann; Chemla, Sandrine; Chavane, Frederic; Destexhe, Alain

2018-02-01

Voltage-sensitive dye imaging (VSDi) has revealed fundamental properties of neocortical processing at macroscopic scales. Since for each pixel VSDi signals report the average membrane potential over hundreds of neurons, it seems natural to use a mean-field formalism to model such signals. Here, we present a mean-field model of networks of Adaptive Exponential (AdEx) integrate-and-fire neurons, with conductance-based synaptic interactions. We study a network of regular-spiking (RS) excitatory neurons and fast-spiking (FS) inhibitory neurons. We use a Master Equation formalism, together with a semi-analytic approach to the transfer function of AdEx neurons to describe the average dynamics of the coupled populations. We compare the predictions of this mean-field model to simulated networks of RS-FS cells, first at the level of the spontaneous activity of the network, which is well predicted by the analytical description. Second, we investigate the response of the network to time-varying external input, and show that the mean-field model predicts the response time course of the population. Finally, to model VSDi signals, we consider a one-dimensional ring model made of interconnected RS-FS mean-field units. We found that this model can reproduce the spatio-temporal patterns seen in VSDi of awake monkey visual cortex as a response to local and transient visual stimuli. Conversely, we show that the model allows one to infer physiological parameters from the experimentally-recorded spatio-temporal patterns.

Predicting Essential Components of Signal Transduction Networks: A Dynamic Model of Guard Cell Abscisic Acid Signaling

PubMed Central

Li, Song; Assmann, Sarah M; Albert, Réka

2006-01-01

Plants both lose water and take in carbon dioxide through microscopic stomatal pores, each of which is regulated by a surrounding pair of guard cells. During drought, the plant hormone abscisic acid (ABA) inhibits stomatal opening and promotes stomatal closure, thereby promoting water conservation. Dozens of cellular components have been identified to function in ABA regulation of guard cell volume and thus of stomatal aperture, but a dynamic description is still not available for this complex process. Here we synthesize experimental results into a consistent guard cell signal transduction network for ABA-induced stomatal closure, and develop a dynamic model of this process. Our model captures the regulation of more than 40 identified network components, and accords well with previous experimental results at both the pathway and whole-cell physiological level. By simulating gene disruptions and pharmacological interventions we find that the network is robust against a significant fraction of possible perturbations. Our analysis reveals the novel predictions that the disruption of membrane depolarizability, anion efflux, actin cytoskeleton reorganization, cytosolic pH increase, the phosphatidic acid pathway, or K+ efflux through slowly activating K+ channels at the plasma membrane lead to the strongest reduction in ABA responsiveness. Initial experimental analysis assessing ABA-induced stomatal closure in the presence of cytosolic pH clamp imposed by the weak acid butyrate is consistent with model prediction. Simulations of stomatal response as derived from our model provide an efficient tool for the identification of candidate manipulations that have the best chance of conferring increased drought stress tolerance and for the prioritization of future wet bench analyses. Our method can be readily applied to other biological signaling networks to identify key regulatory components in systems where quantitative information is limited. PMID:16968132

Joint physical and numerical modeling of water distribution networks.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zimmerman, Adam; O'Hern, Timothy John; Orear, Leslie Jr.

2009-01-01

This report summarizes the experimental and modeling effort undertaken to understand solute mixing in a water distribution network conducted during the last year of a 3-year project. The experimental effort involves measurement of extent of mixing within different configurations of pipe networks, measurement of dynamic mixing in a single mixing tank, and measurement of dynamic solute mixing in a combined network-tank configuration. High resolution analysis of turbulence mixing is carried out via high speed photography as well as 3D finite-volume based Large Eddy Simulation turbulence models. Macroscopic mixing rules based on flow momentum balance are also explored, and in somemore » cases, implemented in EPANET. A new version EPANET code was developed to yield better mixing predictions. The impact of a storage tank on pipe mixing in a combined pipe-tank network during diurnal fill-and-drain cycles is assessed. Preliminary comparison between dynamic pilot data and EPANET-BAM is also reported.« less

A Complex-Valued Firing-Rate Model That Approximates the Dynamics of Spiking Networks

PubMed Central

Schaffer, Evan S.; Ostojic, Srdjan; Abbott, L. F.

2013-01-01

Firing-rate models provide an attractive approach for studying large neural networks because they can be simulated rapidly and are amenable to mathematical analysis. Traditional firing-rate models assume a simple form in which the dynamics are governed by a single time constant. These models fail to replicate certain dynamic features of populations of spiking neurons, especially those involving synchronization. We present a complex-valued firing-rate model derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation and apply it to the linear, quadratic and exponential integrate-and-fire models. Despite being almost as simple as a traditional firing-rate description, this model can reproduce firing-rate dynamics due to partial synchronization of the action potentials in a spiking model, and it successfully predicts the transition to spike synchronization in networks of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons. PMID:24204236

Site-Mutation of Hydrophobic Core Residues Synchronically Poise Super Interleukin 2 for Signaling: Identifying Distant Structural Effects through Affordable Computations.

PubMed

Mei, Longcan; Zhou, Yanping; Zhu, Lizhe; Liu, Changlin; Wu, Zhuo; Wang, Fangkui; Hao, Gefei; Yu, Di; Yuan, Hong; Cui, Yanfang

2018-03-20

A superkine variant of interleukin-2 with six site mutations away from the binding interface developed from the yeast display technique has been previously characterized as undergoing a distal structure alteration which is responsible for its super-potency and provides an elegant case study with which to get insight about how to utilize allosteric effect to achieve desirable protein functions. By examining the dynamic network and the allosteric pathways related to those mutated residues using various computational approaches, we found that nanosecond time scale all-atom molecular dynamics simulations can identify the dynamic network as efficient as an ensemble algorithm. The differentiated pathways for the six core residues form a dynamic network that outlines the area of structure alteration. The results offer potentials of using affordable computing power to predict allosteric structure of mutants in knowledge-based mutagenesis.

A unifying view of synchronization for data assimilation in complex nonlinear networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abarbanel, Henry D. I.; Shirman, Sasha; Breen, Daniel; Kadakia, Nirag; Rey, Daniel; Armstrong, Eve; Margoliash, Daniel

2017-12-01

Networks of nonlinear systems contain unknown parameters and dynamical degrees of freedom that may not be observable with existing instruments. From observable state variables, we want to estimate the connectivity of a model of such a network and determine the full state of the model at the termination of a temporal observation window during which measurements transfer information to a model of the network. The model state at the termination of a measurement window acts as an initial condition for predicting the future behavior of the network. This allows the validation (or invalidation) of the model as a representation of the dynamical processes producing the observations. Once the model has been tested against new data, it may be utilized as a predictor of responses to innovative stimuli or forcing. We describe a general framework for the tasks involved in the "inverse" problem of determining properties of a model built to represent measured output from physical, biological, or other processes when the measurements are noisy, the model has errors, and the state of the model is unknown when measurements begin. This framework is called statistical data assimilation and is the best one can do in estimating model properties through the use of the conditional probability distributions of the model state variables, conditioned on observations. There is a very broad arena of applications of the methods described. These include numerical weather prediction, properties of nonlinear electrical circuitry, and determining the biophysical properties of functional networks of neurons. Illustrative examples will be given of (1) estimating the connectivity among neurons with known dynamics in a network of unknown connectivity, and (2) estimating the biophysical properties of individual neurons in vitro taken from a functional network underlying vocalization in songbirds.

Hebbian Learning is about contingency, not contiguity, and explains the emergence of predictive mirror neurons.

PubMed

Keysers, Christian; Perrett, David I; Gazzola, Valeria

2014-04-01

Hebbian Learning should not be reduced to contiguity, as it detects contingency and causality. Hebbian Learning accounts of mirror neurons make predictions that differ from associative learning: Through Hebbian Learning, mirror neurons become dynamic networks that calculate predictions and prediction errors and relate to ideomotor theories. The social force of imitation is important for mirror neuron emergence and suggests canalization.

How actin network dynamics control the onset of actin-based motility

PubMed Central

Kawska, Agnieszka; Carvalho, Kévin; Manzi, John; Boujemaa-Paterski, Rajaa; Blanchoin, Laurent; Martiel, Jean-Louis; Sykes, Cécile

2012-01-01

Cells use their dynamic actin network to control their mechanics and motility. These networks are made of branched actin filaments generated by the Arp2/3 complex. Here we study under which conditions the microscopic organization of branched actin networks builds up a sufficient stress to trigger sustained motility. In our experimental setup, dynamic actin networks or “gels” are grown on a hard bead in a controlled minimal protein system containing actin monomers, profilin, the Arp2/3 complex and capping protein. We vary protein concentrations and follow experimentally and through simulations the shape and mechanical properties of the actin gel growing around beads. Actin gel morphology is controlled by elementary steps including “primer” contact, growth of the network, entanglement, mechanical interaction and force production. We show that varying the biochemical orchestration of these steps can lead to the loss of network cohesion and the lack of effective force production. We propose a predictive phase diagram of actin gel fate as a function of protein concentrations. This work unveils how, in growing actin networks, a tight biochemical and physical coupling smoothens initial primer-caused heterogeneities and governs force buildup and cell motility. PMID:22908255

The importance of including dynamic social networks when modeling epidemics of airborne infections: does increasing complexity increase accuracy?

PubMed

Blower, Sally; Go, Myong-Hyun

2011-07-19

Mathematical models are useful tools for understanding and predicting epidemics. A recent innovative modeling study by Stehle and colleagues addressed the issue of how complex models need to be to ensure accuracy. The authors collected data on face-to-face contacts during a two-day conference. They then constructed a series of dynamic social contact networks, each of which was used to model an epidemic generated by a fast-spreading airborne pathogen. Intriguingly, Stehle and colleagues found that increasing model complexity did not always increase accuracy. Specifically, the most detailed contact network and a simplified version of this network generated very similar results. These results are extremely interesting and require further exploration to determine their generalizability.

Mechanistic Representation of Soil C Dynamics: for Arctic Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwivedi, D.; Riley, W. J.; Bisht, G.

2013-12-01

Arctic and sub-Arctic soils store vast amounts of carbon, approximately 1700 billion metric tones of frozen organic carbon. This carbon is susceptible to release to the atmosphere due to environmental changes (e.g., rapidly evolving landscape, warming); however, the mechanisms responsible for this susceptibility of soil organic matter (SOM) are not well understood, and uncertainties exist in terms of their representation in Earth System models. The representation of SOM dynamics in Earth System Models is critical for future climate prediction. To investigate the impacts of various physical (e.g., multi-phase transport, sorption, desorption, temperature), chemical (e.g., pH), and biological (e.g., microbial activity, enzyme dynamics) factors on SOM stability, we have developed CENTURY-like (describing labile and recalcitrant pools) and complex (describing multiple archetypal polymers and monomers C substrate groups) reaction networks. These reaction networks are integrated in a three-dimensional, multi-phase reactive transport solver (PFLOTRAN) and include representations of bacterial and fungal activity as well as population dynamics, gaseous and aqueous advection, and adsorption and desorption. We test and compare these reaction networks in PFLOTRAN to accurately predict depth-resolved soil organic matter (SOM) in the subsurface. We present results showing impacts of abiotic controls (e.g., surface interactions and temperature) on the long-term stabilization of SOM under permafrost conditions.

Dynamics of blood flow in a microfluidic ladder network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maddala, Jeevan; Zilberman-Rudenko, Jevgenia; McCarty, Owen

The dynamics of a complex mixture of cells and proteins, such as blood, in perturbed shear flow remains ill-defined. Microfluidics is a promising technology for improving the understanding of blood flow under complex conditions of shear; as found in stent implants and in tortuous blood vessels. We model the fluid dynamics of blood flow in a microfluidic ladder network with dimensions mimicking venules. Interaction of blood cells was modeled using multiagent framework, where cells of different diameters were treated as spheres. This model served as the basis for predicting transition regions, collision pathways, re-circulation zones and residence times of cells dependent on their diameters and device architecture. Based on these insights from the model, we were able to predict the clot formation configurations at various locations in the device. These predictions were supported by the experiments using whole blood. To facilitate platelet aggregation, the devices were coated with fibrillar collagen and tissue factor. Blood was perfused through the microfluidic device for 9 min at a physiologically relevant venous shear rate of 600 s-1. Using fluorescent microscopy, we observed flow transitions near the channel intersections and at the areas of blood flow obstruction, which promoted larger thrombus formation. This study of integrating model predictions with experimental design, aids in defining the dynamics of blood flow in microvasculature and in development of novel biomedical devices.

Popularity versus similarity in growing networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krioukov, Dmitri; Papadopoulos, Fragkiskos; Kitsak, Maksim; Serrano, Mariangeles; Boguna, Marian

2012-02-01

Preferential attachment is a powerful mechanism explaining the emergence of scaling in growing networks. If new connections are established preferentially to more popular nodes in a network, then the network is scale-free. Here we show that not only popularity but also similarity is a strong force shaping the network structure and dynamics. We develop a framework where new connections, instead of preferring popular nodes, optimize certain trade-offs between popularity and similarity. The framework admits a geometric interpretation, in which preferential attachment emerges from local optimization processes. As opposed to preferential attachment, the optimization framework accurately describes large-scale evolution of technological (Internet), social (web of trust), and biological (E.coli metabolic) networks, predicting the probability of new links in them with a remarkable precision. The developed framework can thus be used for predicting new links in evolving networks, and provides a different perspective on preferential attachment as an emergent phenomenon.

Self-Consistent Field Lattice Model for Polymer Networks.

PubMed

Tito, Nicholas B; Storm, Cornelis; Ellenbroek, Wouter G

2017-12-26

A lattice model based on polymer self-consistent field theory is developed to predict the equilibrium statistics of arbitrary polymer networks. For a given network topology, our approach uses moment propagators on a lattice to self-consistently construct the ensemble of polymer conformations and cross-link spatial probability distributions. Remarkably, the calculation can be performed "in the dark", without any prior knowledge on preferred chain conformations or cross-link positions. Numerical results from the model for a test network exhibit close agreement with molecular dynamics simulations, including when the network is strongly sheared. Our model captures nonaffine deformation, mean-field monomer interactions, cross-link fluctuations, and finite extensibility of chains, yielding predictions that differ markedly from classical rubber elasticity theory for polymer networks. By examining polymer networks with different degrees of interconnectivity, we gain insight into cross-link entropy, an important quantity in the macroscopic behavior of gels and self-healing materials as they are deformed.

A universal indicator of critical state transitions in noisy complex networked systems

PubMed Central

Liang, Junhao; Hu, Yanqing; Chen, Guanrong; Zhou, Tianshou

2017-01-01

Critical transition, a phenomenon that a system shifts suddenly from one state to another, occurs in many real-world complex networks. We propose an analytical framework for exactly predicting the critical transition in a complex networked system subjected to noise effects. Our prediction is based on the characteristic return time of a simple one-dimensional system derived from the original higher-dimensional system. This characteristic time, which can be easily calculated using network data, allows us to systematically separate the respective roles of dynamics, noise and topology of the underlying networked system. We find that the noise can either prevent or enhance critical transitions, playing a key role in compensating the network structural defect which suffers from either internal failures or environmental changes, or both. Our analysis of realistic or artificial examples reveals that the characteristic return time is an effective indicator for forecasting the sudden deterioration of complex networks. PMID:28230166

Evolution of the social network of scientific collaborations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo; Jeong, Hawoong; Neda, Zoltan; Ravasz, Erzsebet; Schubert, Andras; Vicsek, Tamas

2002-03-01

The co-authorship network of scientists represents a prototype of complex evolving networks. By mapping the electronic database containing all relevant journals in mathematics and neuro-science for an eight-year period (1991-98), we infer the dynamic and the structural mechanisms that govern the evolution and topology of this complex system. First, empirical measurements allow us to uncover the topological measures that characterize the network at a given moment, as well as the time evolution of these quantities. The results indicate that the network is scale-free, and that the network evolution is governed by preferential attachment, affecting both internal and external links. However, in contrast with most model predictions the average degree increases in time, and the node separation decreases. Second, we propose a simple model that captures the network's time evolution. Third, numerical simulations are used to uncover the behavior of quantities that could not be predicted analytically.

Computational Systems Toxicology: recapitulating the logistical dynamics of cellular response networks in virtual tissue models (Eurotox_2017)

EPA Science Inventory

Translating in vitro data and biological information into a predictive model for human toxicity poses a significant challenge. This is especially true for complex adaptive systems such as the embryo where cellular dynamics are precisely orchestrated in space and time. Computer ce...

An algebra-based method for inferring gene regulatory networks.

PubMed

Vera-Licona, Paola; Jarrah, Abdul; Garcia-Puente, Luis David; McGee, John; Laubenbacher, Reinhard

2014-03-26

The inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from experimental observations is at the heart of systems biology. This includes the inference of both the network topology and its dynamics. While there are many algorithms available to infer the network topology from experimental data, less emphasis has been placed on methods that infer network dynamics. Furthermore, since the network inference problem is typically underdetermined, it is essential to have the option of incorporating into the inference process, prior knowledge about the network, along with an effective description of the search space of dynamic models. Finally, it is also important to have an understanding of how a given inference method is affected by experimental and other noise in the data used. This paper contains a novel inference algorithm using the algebraic framework of Boolean polynomial dynamical systems (BPDS), meeting all these requirements. The algorithm takes as input time series data, including those from network perturbations, such as knock-out mutant strains and RNAi experiments. It allows for the incorporation of prior biological knowledge while being robust to significant levels of noise in the data used for inference. It uses an evolutionary algorithm for local optimization with an encoding of the mathematical models as BPDS. The BPDS framework allows an effective representation of the search space for algebraic dynamic models that improves computational performance. The algorithm is validated with both simulated and experimental microarray expression profile data. Robustness to noise is tested using a published mathematical model of the segment polarity gene network in Drosophila melanogaster. Benchmarking of the algorithm is done by comparison with a spectrum of state-of-the-art network inference methods on data from the synthetic IRMA network to demonstrate that our method has good precision and recall for the network reconstruction task, while also predicting several of the dynamic patterns present in the network. Boolean polynomial dynamical systems provide a powerful modeling framework for the reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks, that enables a rich mathematical structure on the model search space. A C++ implementation of the method, distributed under LPGL license, is available, together with the source code, at http://www.paola-vera-licona.net/Software/EARevEng/REACT.html.

Structure Shapes Dynamics and Directionality in Diverse Brain Networks: Mathematical Principles and Empirical Confirmation in Three Species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Joon-Young; Kim, Junhyeok; Ko, Tae-Wook; Kim, Minkyung; Iturria-Medina, Yasser; Choi, Jee-Hyun; Lee, Joseph; Mashour, George A.; Lee, Uncheol

2017-04-01

Identifying how spatially distributed information becomes integrated in the brain is essential to understanding higher cognitive functions. Previous computational and empirical studies suggest a significant influence of brain network structure on brain network function. However, there have been few analytical approaches to explain the role of network structure in shaping regional activities and directionality patterns. In this study, analytical methods are applied to a coupled oscillator model implemented in inhomogeneous networks. We first derive a mathematical principle that explains the emergence of directionality from the underlying brain network structure. We then apply the analytical methods to the anatomical brain networks of human, macaque, and mouse, successfully predicting simulation and empirical electroencephalographic data. The results demonstrate that the global directionality patterns in resting state brain networks can be predicted solely by their unique network structures. This study forms a foundation for a more comprehensive understanding of how neural information is directed and integrated in complex brain networks.

Cellular automata simulation of topological effects on the dynamics of feed-forward motifs

PubMed Central

Apte, Advait A; Cain, John W; Bonchev, Danail G; Fong, Stephen S

2008-01-01

Background Feed-forward motifs are important functional modules in biological and other complex networks. The functionality of feed-forward motifs and other network motifs is largely dictated by the connectivity of the individual network components. While studies on the dynamics of motifs and networks are usually devoted to the temporal or spatial description of processes, this study focuses on the relationship between the specific architecture and the overall rate of the processes of the feed-forward family of motifs, including double and triple feed-forward loops. The search for the most efficient network architecture could be of particular interest for regulatory or signaling pathways in biology, as well as in computational and communication systems. Results Feed-forward motif dynamics were studied using cellular automata and compared with differential equation modeling. The number of cellular automata iterations needed for a 100% conversion of a substrate into a target product was used as an inverse measure of the transformation rate. Several basic topological patterns were identified that order the specific feed-forward constructions according to the rate of dynamics they enable. At the same number of network nodes and constant other parameters, the bi-parallel and tri-parallel motifs provide higher network efficacy than single feed-forward motifs. Additionally, a topological property of isodynamicity was identified for feed-forward motifs where different network architectures resulted in the same overall rate of the target production. Conclusion It was shown for classes of structural motifs with feed-forward architecture that network topology affects the overall rate of a process in a quantitatively predictable manner. These fundamental results can be used as a basis for simulating larger networks as combinations of smaller network modules with implications on studying synthetic gene circuits, small regulatory systems, and eventually dynamic whole-cell models. PMID:18304325

Distal gap junctions and active dendrites can tune network dynamics.

PubMed

Saraga, Fernanda; Ng, Leo; Skinner, Frances K

2006-03-01

Gap junctions allow direct electrical communication between CNS neurons. From theoretical and modeling studies, it is well known that although gap junctions can act to synchronize network output, they can also give rise to many other dynamic patterns including antiphase and other phase-locked states. The particular network pattern that arises depends on cellular, intrinsic properties that affect firing frequencies as well as the strength and location of the gap junctions. Interneurons or GABAergic neurons in hippocampus are diverse in their cellular characteristics and have been shown to have active dendrites. Furthermore, parvalbumin-positive GABAergic neurons, also known as basket cells, can contact one another via gap junctions on their distal dendrites. Using two-cell network models, we explore how distal electrical connections affect network output. We build multi-compartment models of hippocampal basket cells using NEURON and endow them with varying amounts of active dendrites. Two-cell networks of these model cells as well as reduced versions are explored. The relationship between intrinsic frequency and the level of active dendrites allows us to define three regions based on what sort of network dynamics occur with distal gap junction coupling. Weak coupling theory is used to predict the delineation of these regions as well as examination of phase response curves and distal dendritic polarization levels. We find that a nonmonotonic dependence of network dynamic characteristics (phase lags) on gap junction conductance occurs. This suggests that distal electrical coupling and active dendrite levels can control how sensitive network dynamics are to gap junction modulation. With the extended geometry, gap junctions located at more distal locations must have larger conductances for pure synchrony to occur. Furthermore, based on simulations with heterogeneous networks, it may be that one requires active dendrites if phase-locking is to occur in networks formed with distal gap junctions.

Dynamics of deceptive interactions in social networks.

PubMed

Barrio, Rafael A; Govezensky, Tzipe; Dunbar, Robin; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Kaski, Kimmo

2015-11-06

In this paper, we examine the role of lies in human social relations by implementing some salient characteristics of deceptive interactions into an opinion formation model, so as to describe the dynamical behaviour of a social network more realistically. In this model, we take into account such basic properties of social networks as the dynamics of the intensity of interactions, the influence of public opinion and the fact that in every human interaction it might be convenient to deceive or withhold information depending on the instantaneous situation of each individual in the network. We find that lies shape the topology of social networks, especially the formation of tightly linked, small communities with loose connections between them. We also find that agents with a larger proportion of deceptive interactions are the ones that connect communities of different opinion, and, in this sense, they have substantial centrality in the network. We then discuss the consequences of these results for the social behaviour of humans and predict the changes that could arise due to a varying tolerance for lies in society. © 2015 The Author(s).

A biophysical model of dynamic balancing of excitation and inhibition in fast oscillatory large-scale networks

PubMed Central

Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N.; Brookes, Matthew J.; Woolrich, Mark W.

2018-01-01

Over long timescales, neuronal dynamics can be robust to quite large perturbations, such as changes in white matter connectivity and grey matter structure through processes including learning, aging, development and certain disease processes. One possible explanation is that robust dynamics are facilitated by homeostatic mechanisms that can dynamically rebalance brain networks. In this study, we simulate a cortical brain network using the Wilson-Cowan neural mass model with conduction delays and noise, and use inhibitory synaptic plasticity (ISP) to dynamically achieve a spatially local balance between excitation and inhibition. Using MEG data from 55 subjects we find that ISP enables us to simultaneously achieve high correlation with multiple measures of functional connectivity, including amplitude envelope correlation and phase locking. Further, we find that ISP successfully achieves local E/I balance, and can consistently predict the functional connectivity computed from real MEG data, for a much wider range of model parameters than is possible with a model without ISP. PMID:29474352

Estimating epidemic arrival times using linear spreading theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lawrence M.; Holzer, Matt; Shapiro, Anne

2018-01-01

We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is composed of a system of ordinary differential equations describing a meta-population susceptible-infected-recovered compartmental model defined on a network where each node represents a city and the edges represent the flight paths connecting cities. Making use of the linear determinacy of the system, we consider spreading speeds and arrival times in the system linearized about the unstable disease free state and compare these to arrival times in the nonlinear system. Two predictions are presented. The first is based upon expansion of the heat kernel for the linearized system. The second assumes that the dominant transmission pathway between any two cities can be approximated by a one dimensional lattice or a homogeneous tree and gives a uniform prediction for arrival times independent of the specific network features. We test these predictions on a real network describing worldwide airline traffic.

Form and function in gene regulatory networks: the structure of network motifs determines fundamental properties of their dynamical state space.

PubMed

Ahnert, S E; Fink, T M A

2016-07-01

Network motifs have been studied extensively over the past decade, and certain motifs, such as the feed-forward loop, play an important role in regulatory networks. Recent studies have used Boolean network motifs to explore the link between form and function in gene regulatory networks and have found that the structure of a motif does not strongly determine its function, if this is defined in terms of the gene expression patterns the motif can produce. Here, we offer a different, higher-level definition of the 'function' of a motif, in terms of two fundamental properties of its dynamical state space as a Boolean network. One is the basin entropy, which is a complexity measure of the dynamics of Boolean networks. The other is the diversity of cyclic attractor lengths that a given motif can produce. Using these two measures, we examine all 104 topologically distinct three-node motifs and show that the structural properties of a motif, such as the presence of feedback loops and feed-forward loops, predict fundamental characteristics of its dynamical state space, which in turn determine aspects of its functional versatility. We also show that these higher-level properties have a direct bearing on real regulatory networks, as both basin entropy and cycle length diversity show a close correspondence with the prevalence, in neural and genetic regulatory networks, of the 13 connected motifs without self-interactions that have been studied extensively in the literature. © 2016 The Authors.

Dynamic Network Communication in the Human Functional Connectome Predicts Perceptual Variability in Visual Illusion.

PubMed

Wang, Zhiwei; Zeljic, Kristina; Jiang, Qinying; Gu, Yong; Wang, Wei; Wang, Zheng

2018-01-01

Ubiquitous variability between individuals in visual perception is difficult to standardize and has thus essentially been ignored. Here we construct a quantitative psychophysical measure of illusory rotary motion based on the Pinna-Brelstaff figure (PBF) in 73 healthy volunteers and investigate the neural circuit mechanisms underlying perceptual variation using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We acquired fMRI data from a subset of 42 subjects during spontaneous and 3 stimulus conditions: expanding PBF, expanding modified-PBF (illusion-free) and expanding modified-PBF with physical rotation. Brain-wide graph analysis of stimulus-evoked functional connectivity patterns yielded a functionally segregated architecture containing 3 discrete hierarchical networks, commonly shared between rest and stimulation conditions. Strikingly, communication efficiency and strength between 2 networks predominantly located in visual areas robustly predicted individual perceptual differences solely in the illusory stimulus condition. These unprecedented findings demonstrate that stimulus-dependent, not spontaneous, dynamic functional integration between distributed brain networks contributes to perceptual variability in humans. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

An Evolutionary Game Theory Model of Spontaneous Brain Functioning.

PubMed

Madeo, Dario; Talarico, Agostino; Pascual-Leone, Alvaro; Mocenni, Chiara; Santarnecchi, Emiliano

2017-11-22

Our brain is a complex system of interconnected regions spontaneously organized into distinct networks. The integration of information between and within these networks is a continuous process that can be observed even when the brain is at rest, i.e. not engaged in any particular task. Moreover, such spontaneous dynamics show predictive value over individual cognitive profile and constitute a potential marker in neurological and psychiatric conditions, making its understanding of fundamental importance in modern neuroscience. Here we present a theoretical and mathematical model based on an extension of evolutionary game theory on networks (EGN), able to capture brain's interregional dynamics by balancing emulative and non-emulative attitudes among brain regions. This results in the net behavior of nodes composing resting-state networks identified using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), determining their moment-to-moment level of activation and inhibition as expressed by positive and negative shifts in BOLD fMRI signal. By spontaneously generating low-frequency oscillatory behaviors, the EGN model is able to mimic functional connectivity dynamics, approximate fMRI time series on the basis of initial subset of available data, as well as simulate the impact of network lesions and provide evidence of compensation mechanisms across networks. Results suggest evolutionary game theory on networks as a new potential framework for the understanding of human brain network dynamics.

A Coarse-Grained Elastic Network Atom Contact Model and Its Use in the Simulation of Protein Dynamics and the Prediction of the Effect of Mutations

PubMed Central

Frappier, Vincent; Najmanovich, Rafael J.

2014-01-01

Normal mode analysis (NMA) methods are widely used to study dynamic aspects of protein structures. Two critical components of NMA methods are coarse-graining in the level of simplification used to represent protein structures and the choice of potential energy functional form. There is a trade-off between speed and accuracy in different choices. In one extreme one finds accurate but slow molecular-dynamics based methods with all-atom representations and detailed atom potentials. On the other extreme, fast elastic network model (ENM) methods with Cα−only representations and simplified potentials that based on geometry alone, thus oblivious to protein sequence. Here we present ENCoM, an Elastic Network Contact Model that employs a potential energy function that includes a pairwise atom-type non-bonded interaction term and thus makes it possible to consider the effect of the specific nature of amino-acids on dynamics within the context of NMA. ENCoM is as fast as existing ENM methods and outperforms such methods in the generation of conformational ensembles. Here we introduce a new application for NMA methods with the use of ENCoM in the prediction of the effect of mutations on protein stability. While existing methods are based on machine learning or enthalpic considerations, the use of ENCoM, based on vibrational normal modes, is based on entropic considerations. This represents a novel area of application for NMA methods and a novel approach for the prediction of the effect of mutations. We compare ENCoM to a large number of methods in terms of accuracy and self-consistency. We show that the accuracy of ENCoM is comparable to that of the best existing methods. We show that existing methods are biased towards the prediction of destabilizing mutations and that ENCoM is less biased at predicting stabilizing mutations. PMID:24762569

A network-based dynamical ranking system for competitive sports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motegi, Shun; Masuda, Naoki

2012-12-01

From the viewpoint of networks, a ranking system for players or teams in sports is equivalent to a centrality measure for sports networks, whereby a directed link represents the result of a single game. Previously proposed network-based ranking systems are derived from static networks, i.e., aggregation of the results of games over time. However, the score of a player (or team) fluctuates over time. Defeating a renowned player in the peak performance is intuitively more rewarding than defeating the same player in other periods. To account for this factor, we propose a dynamic variant of such a network-based ranking system and apply it to professional men's tennis data. We derive a set of linear online update equations for the score of each player. The proposed ranking system predicts the outcome of the future games with a higher accuracy than the static counterparts.

Vulnerability of a killer whale social network to disease outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães, Paulo R., Jr.; de Menezes, Márcio Argollo; Baird, Robin W.; Lusseau, David; Guimarães, Paulo; Dos Reis, Sérgio F.

2007-10-01

Emerging infectious diseases are among the main threats to conservation of biological diversity. A crucial task facing epidemiologists is to predict the vulnerability of populations of endangered animals to disease outbreaks. In this context, the network structure of social interactions within animal populations may affect disease spreading. However, endangered animal populations are often small and to investigate the dynamics of small networks is a difficult task. Using network theory, we show that the social structure of an endangered population of mammal-eating killer whales is vulnerable to disease outbreaks. This feature was found to be a consequence of the combined effects of the topology and strength of social links among individuals. Our results uncover a serious challenge for conservation of the species and its ecosystem. In addition, this study shows that the network approach can be useful to study dynamical processes in very small networks.

Dynamic causal modelling of brain-behaviour relationships.

PubMed

Rigoux, L; Daunizeau, J

2015-08-15

In this work, we expose a mathematical treatment of brain-behaviour relationships, which we coin behavioural Dynamic Causal Modelling or bDCM. This approach aims at decomposing the brain's transformation of stimuli into behavioural outcomes, in terms of the relative contribution of brain regions and their connections. In brief, bDCM places the brain at the interplay between stimulus and behaviour: behavioural outcomes arise from coordinated activity in (hidden) neural networks, whose dynamics are driven by experimental inputs. Estimating neural parameters that control network connectivity and plasticity effectively performs a neurobiologically-constrained approximation to the brain's input-outcome transform. In other words, neuroimaging data essentially serves to enforce the realism of bDCM's decomposition of input-output relationships. In addition, post-hoc artificial lesions analyses allow us to predict induced behavioural deficits and quantify the importance of network features for funnelling input-output relationships. This is important, because this enables one to bridge the gap with neuropsychological studies of brain-damaged patients. We demonstrate the face validity of the approach using Monte-Carlo simulations, and its predictive validity using empirical fMRI/behavioural data from an inhibitory control task. Lastly, we discuss promising applications of this work, including the assessment of functional degeneracy (in the healthy brain) and the prediction of functional recovery after lesions (in neurological patients). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Documentation Driven Software Development

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

Applications, Vol. 13, No. 1, March, 2006, pp. 28-38. 3. G. Jacoby, R. Marchany, Davis IV, “Using Battery Constraints Within Mobile Hosts To Improve Network ...2005. 2. Luqi, V. Berzins, William Roof, “Nautical Predictive Routing Protocol (NPRP) for the Dynamic Ad-Hoc Nautical Network (DANN)”, Monterey...Workshop 2005: realization of reliable systems on top of unreliable networked platforms, Laguna Beach, California, September, 2005. 3. B. Lewis, “The

Perturbation propagation in random and evolved Boolean networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fretter, Christoph; Szejka, Agnes; Drossel, Barbara

2009-03-01

In this paper, we investigate the propagation of perturbations in Boolean networks by evaluating the Derrida plot and its modifications. We show that even small random Boolean networks agree well with the predictions of the annealed approximation, but nonrandom networks show a very different behaviour. We focus on networks that were evolved for high dynamical robustness. The most important conclusion is that the simple distinction between frozen, critical and chaotic networks is no longer useful, since such evolved networks can display the properties of all three types of networks. Furthermore, we evaluate a simplified empirical network and show how its specific state space properties are reflected in the modified Derrida plots.

Predictive functional control for active queue management in congested TCP/IP networks.

PubMed

Bigdeli, N; Haeri, M

2009-01-01

Predictive functional control (PFC) as a new active queue management (AQM) method in dynamic TCP networks supporting explicit congestion notification (ECN) is proposed. The ability of the controller in handling system delay along with its simplicity and low computational load makes PFC a privileged AQM method in the high speed networks. Besides, considering the disturbance term (which represents model/process mismatches, external disturbances, and existing noise) in the control formulation adds some level of robustness into the PFC-AQM controller. This is an important and desired property in the control of dynamically-varying computer networks. In this paper, the controller is designed based on a small signal linearized fluid-flow model of the TCP/AQM networks. Then, closed-loop transfer function representation of the system is derived to analyze the robustness with respect to the network and controller parameters. The analytical as well as the packet-level ns-2 simulation results show the out-performance of the developed controller for both queue regulation and resource utilization. Fast response, low queue fluctuations (and consequently low delay jitter), high link utilization, good disturbance rejection, scalability, and low packet marking probability are other features of the developed method with respect to other well-known AQM methods such as RED, PI, and REM which are also simulated for comparison.

Identifying highly connected counties compensates for resource limitations when evaluating national spread of an invasive pathogen.

PubMed

Sutrave, Sweta; Scoglio, Caterina; Isard, Scott A; Hutchinson, J M Shawn; Garrett, Karen A

2012-01-01

Surveying invasive species can be highly resource intensive, yet near-real-time evaluations of invasion progress are important resources for management planning. In the case of the soybean rust invasion of the United States, a linked monitoring, prediction, and communication network saved U.S. soybean growers approximately $200 M/yr. Modeling of future movement of the pathogen (Phakopsora pachyrhizi) was based on data about current disease locations from an extensive network of sentinel plots. We developed a dynamic network model for U.S. soybean rust epidemics, with counties as nodes and link weights a function of host hectarage and wind speed and direction. We used the network model to compare four strategies for selecting an optimal subset of sentinel plots, listed here in order of increasing performance: random selection, zonal selection (based on more heavily weighting regions nearer the south, where the pathogen overwinters), frequency-based selection (based on how frequently the county had been infected in the past), and frequency-based selection weighted by the node strength of the sentinel plot in the network model. When dynamic network properties such as node strength are characterized for invasive species, this information can be used to reduce the resources necessary to survey and predict invasion progress.

Elucidating dynamic metabolic physiology through network integration of quantitative time-course metabolomics

DOE PAGES

Bordbar, Aarash; Yurkovich, James T.; Paglia, Giuseppe; ...

2017-04-07

In this study, the increasing availability of metabolomics data necessitates novel methods for deeper data analysis and interpretation. We present a flux balance analysis method that allows for the computation of dynamic intracellular metabolic changes at the cellular scale through integration of time-course absolute quantitative metabolomics. This approach, termed “unsteady-state flux balance analysis” (uFBA), is applied to four cellular systems: three dynamic and one steady-state as a negative control. uFBA and FBA predictions are contrasted, and uFBA is found to be more accurate in predicting dynamic metabolic flux states for red blood cells, platelets, and Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Notably, only uFBAmore » predicts that stored red blood cells metabolize TCA intermediates to regenerate important cofactors, such as ATP, NADH, and NADPH. These pathway usage predictions were subsequently validated through 13C isotopic labeling and metabolic flux analysis in stored red blood cells. Utilizing time-course metabolomics data, uFBA provides an accurate method to predict metabolic physiology at the cellular scale for dynamic systems.« less

Elucidating dynamic metabolic physiology through network integration of quantitative time-course metabolomics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bordbar, Aarash; Yurkovich, James T.; Paglia, Giuseppe

In this study, the increasing availability of metabolomics data necessitates novel methods for deeper data analysis and interpretation. We present a flux balance analysis method that allows for the computation of dynamic intracellular metabolic changes at the cellular scale through integration of time-course absolute quantitative metabolomics. This approach, termed “unsteady-state flux balance analysis” (uFBA), is applied to four cellular systems: three dynamic and one steady-state as a negative control. uFBA and FBA predictions are contrasted, and uFBA is found to be more accurate in predicting dynamic metabolic flux states for red blood cells, platelets, and Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Notably, only uFBAmore » predicts that stored red blood cells metabolize TCA intermediates to regenerate important cofactors, such as ATP, NADH, and NADPH. These pathway usage predictions were subsequently validated through 13C isotopic labeling and metabolic flux analysis in stored red blood cells. Utilizing time-course metabolomics data, uFBA provides an accurate method to predict metabolic physiology at the cellular scale for dynamic systems.« less

Toward Optimal Transport Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexandrov, Natalia; Kincaid, Rex K.; Vargo, Erik P.

2008-01-01

Strictly evolutionary approaches to improving the air transport system a highly complex network of interacting systems no longer suffice in the face of demand that is projected to double or triple in the near future. Thus evolutionary approaches should be augmented with active design methods. The ability to actively design, optimize and control a system presupposes the existence of predictive modeling and reasonably well-defined functional dependences between the controllable variables of the system and objective and constraint functions for optimization. Following recent advances in the studies of the effects of network topology structure on dynamics, we investigate the performance of dynamic processes on transport networks as a function of the first nontrivial eigenvalue of the network's Laplacian, which, in turn, is a function of the network s connectivity and modularity. The last two characteristics can be controlled and tuned via optimization. We consider design optimization problem formulations. We have developed a flexible simulation of network topology coupled with flows on the network for use as a platform for computational experiments.

Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen; Andrews, Michael A.; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Wang, Lin; Bauch, Chris T.

2015-12-01

It is increasingly recognized that a key component of successful infection control efforts is understanding the complex, two-way interaction between disease dynamics and human behavioral and social dynamics. Human behavior such as contact precautions and social distancing clearly influence disease prevalence, but disease prevalence can in turn alter human behavior, forming a coupled, nonlinear system. Moreover, in many cases, the spatial structure of the population cannot be ignored, such that social and behavioral processes and/or transmission of infection must be represented with complex networks. Research on studying coupled disease-behavior dynamics in complex networks in particular is growing rapidly, and frequently makes use of analysis methods and concepts from statistical physics. Here, we review some of the growing literature in this area. We contrast network-based approaches to homogeneous-mixing approaches, point out how their predictions differ, and describe the rich and often surprising behavior of disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks, and compare them to processes in statistical physics. We discuss how these models can capture the dynamics that characterize many real-world scenarios, thereby suggesting ways that policy makers can better design effective prevention strategies. We also describe the growing sources of digital data that are facilitating research in this area. Finally, we suggest pitfalls which might be faced by researchers in the field, and we suggest several ways in which the field could move forward in the coming years.

Relative stability of core groups in pollination networks in a biodiversity hotspot over four years.

PubMed

Fang, Qiang; Huang, Shuang-Quan

2012-01-01

Plants and their pollinators form pollination networks integral to the evolution and persistence of species in communities. Previous studies suggest that pollination network structure remains nested while network composition is highly dynamic. However, little is known about temporal variation in the structure and function of plant-pollinator networks, especially in species-rich communities where the strength of pollinator competition is predicted to be high. Here we quantify temporal variation of pollination networks over four consecutive years in an alpine meadow in the Hengduan Mountains biodiversity hotspot in China. We found that ranked positions and idiosyncratic temperatures of both plants and pollinators were more conservative between consecutive years than in non-consecutive years. Although network compositions exhibited high turnover, generalized core groups--decomposed by a k-core algorithm--were much more stable than peripheral groups. Given the high rate of turnover observed, we suggest that identical plants and pollinators that persist for at least two successive years sustain pollination services at the community level. Our data do not support theoretical predictions of a high proportion of specialized links within species-rich communities. Plants were relatively specialized, exhibiting less variability in pollinator composition at pollinator functional group level than at the species level. Both specialized and generalized plants experienced narrow variation in functional pollinator groups. The dynamic nature of pollination networks in the alpine meadow demonstrates the potential for networks to mitigate the effects of fluctuations in species composition in a high biodiversity area.

Dynamic fMRI networks predict success in a behavioral weight loss program among older adults.

PubMed

Mokhtari, Fatemeh; Rejeski, W Jack; Zhu, Yingying; Wu, Guorong; Simpson, Sean L; Burdette, Jonathan H; Laurienti, Paul J

2018-06-01

More than one-third of adults in the United States are obese, with a higher prevalence among older adults. Obesity among older adults is a major cause of physical dysfunction, hypertension, diabetes, and coronary heart diseases. Many people who engage in lifestyle weight loss interventions fail to reach targeted goals for weight loss, and most will regain what was lost within 1-2 years following cessation of treatment. This variability in treatment efficacy suggests that there are important phenotypes predictive of success with intentional weight loss that could lead to tailored treatment regimen, an idea that is consistent with the concept of precision-based medicine. Although the identification of biochemical and metabolic phenotypes are one potential direction of research, neurobiological measures may prove useful as substantial behavioral change is necessary to achieve success in a lifestyle intervention. In the present study, we use dynamic brain networks from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data to prospectively identify individuals most likely to succeed in a behavioral weight loss intervention. Brain imaging was performed in overweight or obese older adults (age: 65-79 years) who participated in an 18-month lifestyle weight loss intervention. Machine learning and functional brain networks were combined to produce multivariate prediction models. The prediction accuracy exceeded 95%, suggesting that there exists a consistent pattern of connectivity which correctly predicts success with weight loss at the individual level. Connectivity patterns that contributed to the prediction consisted of complex multivariate network components that substantially overlapped with known brain networks that are associated with behavior emergence, self-regulation, body awareness, and the sensory features of food. Future work on independent datasets and diverse populations is needed to corroborate our findings. Additionally, we believe that efforts can begin to examine whether these models have clinical utility in tailoring treatment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hebbian Learning is about contingency not contiguity and explains the emergence of predictive mirror neurons

PubMed Central

Keysers, Christian; Perrett, David I.; Gazzola, Valeria

2015-01-01

Hebbian Learning should not be reduced to contiguity since it detects contingency and causality. Hebbian Learning accounts of mirror neurons make predictions that differ from associative learning: through Hebbian Learning mirror neurons become dynamic networks that calculate predictions and prediction errors and relate to ideomotor theories. The social force of imitation is important for mirror neuron emergence and suggests canalization. PMID:24775162

Prediction of movement intention using connectivity within motor-related network: An electrocorticography study.

PubMed

Kang, Byeong Keun; Kim, June Sic; Ryun, Seokyun; Chung, Chun Kee

2018-01-01

Most brain-machine interface (BMI) studies have focused only on the active state of which a BMI user performs specific movement tasks. Therefore, models developed for predicting movements were optimized only for the active state. The models may not be suitable in the idle state during resting. This potential maladaptation could lead to a sudden accident or unintended movement resulting from prediction error. Prediction of movement intention is important to develop a more efficient and reasonable BMI system which could be selectively operated depending on the user's intention. Physical movement is performed through the serial change of brain states: idle, planning, execution, and recovery. The motor networks in the primary motor cortex and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex are involved in these movement states. Neuronal communication differs between the states. Therefore, connectivity may change depending on the states. In this study, we investigated the temporal dynamics of connectivity in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and primary motor cortex to predict movement intention. Movement intention was successfully predicted by connectivity dynamics which may reflect changes in movement states. Furthermore, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex is crucial in predicting movement intention to which primary motor cortex contributes. These results suggest that brain connectivity is an excellent approach in predicting movement intention.

G-Protein/β-Arrestin-Linked Fluctuating Network of G-Protein-Coupled Receptors for Predicting Drug Efficacy and Bias Using Short-Term Molecular Dynamics Simulation

PubMed Central

Ichikawa, Osamu; Fujimoto, Kazushi; Yamada, Atsushi; Okazaki, Susumu; Yamazaki, Kazuto

2016-01-01

The efficacy and bias of signal transduction induced by a drug at a target protein are closely associated with the benefits and side effects of the drug. In particular, partial agonist activity and G-protein/β-arrestin-biased agonist activity for the G-protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) family, the family with the most target proteins of launched drugs, are key issues in drug discovery. However, designing GPCR drugs with appropriate efficacy and bias is challenging because the dynamic mechanism of signal transduction induced by ligand—receptor interactions is complicated. Here, we identified the G-protein/β-arrestin-linked fluctuating network, which initiates large-scale conformational changes, using sub-microsecond molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the β2-adrenergic receptor (β2AR) with a diverse collection of ligands and correlation analysis of their G protein/β-arrestin efficacy. The G-protein-linked fluctuating network extends from the ligand-binding site to the G-protein-binding site through the connector region, and the β-arrestin-linked fluctuating network consists of the NPxxY motif and adjacent regions. We confirmed that the averaged values of fluctuation in the fluctuating network detected are good quantitative indexes for explaining G protein/β-arrestin efficacy. These results indicate that short-term MD simulation is a practical method to predict the efficacy and bias of any compound for GPCRs. PMID:27187591

Elementary signaling modes predict the essentiality of signal transduction network components

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Understanding how signals propagate through signaling pathways and networks is a central goal in systems biology. Quantitative dynamic models help to achieve this understanding, but are difficult to construct and validate because of the scarcity of known mechanistic details and kinetic parameters. Structural and qualitative analysis is emerging as a feasible and useful alternative for interpreting signal transduction. Results In this work, we present an integrative computational method for evaluating the essentiality of components in signaling networks. This approach expands an existing signaling network to a richer representation that incorporates the positive or negative nature of interactions and the synergistic behaviors among multiple components. Our method simulates both knockout and constitutive activation of components as node disruptions, and takes into account the possible cascading effects of a node's disruption. We introduce the concept of elementary signaling mode (ESM), as the minimal set of nodes that can perform signal transduction independently. Our method ranks the importance of signaling components by the effects of their perturbation on the ESMs of the network. Validation on several signaling networks describing the immune response of mammals to bacteria, guard cell abscisic acid signaling in plants, and T cell receptor signaling shows that this method can effectively uncover the essentiality of components mediating a signal transduction process and results in strong agreement with the results of Boolean (logical) dynamic models and experimental observations. Conclusions This integrative method is an efficient procedure for exploratory analysis of large signaling and regulatory networks where dynamic modeling or experimental tests are impractical. Its results serve as testable predictions, provide insights into signal transduction and regulatory mechanisms and can guide targeted computational or experimental follow-up studies. The source codes for the algorithms developed in this study can be found at http://www.phys.psu.edu/~ralbert/ESM. PMID:21426566

A Continuum Model of Actin Waves in Dictyostelium discoideum

PubMed Central

Khamviwath, Varunyu; Hu, Jifeng; Othmer, Hans G.

2013-01-01

Actin waves are complex dynamical patterns of the dendritic network of filamentous actin in eukaryotes. We developed a model of actin waves in PTEN-deficient Dictyostelium discoideum by deriving an approximation of the dynamics of discrete actin filaments and combining it with a signaling pathway that controls filament branching. This signaling pathway, together with the actin network, contains a positive feedback loop that drives the actin waves. Our model predicts the structure, composition, and dynamics of waves that are consistent with existing experimental evidence, as well as the biochemical dependence on various protein partners. Simulation suggests that actin waves are initiated when local actin network activity, caused by an independent process, exceeds a certain threshold. Moreover, diffusion of proteins that form a positive feedback loop with the actin network alone is sufficient for propagation of actin waves at the observed speed of . Decay of the wave back can be caused by scarcity of network components, and the shape of actin waves is highly dependent on the filament disassembly rate. The model allows retraction of actin waves and captures formation of new wave fronts in broken waves. Our results demonstrate that a delicate balance between a positive feedback, filament disassembly, and local availability of network components is essential for the complex dynamics of actin waves. PMID:23741312

A reanalysis of "Two types of asynchronous activity in networks of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons".

PubMed

Engelken, Rainer; Farkhooi, Farzad; Hansel, David; van Vreeswijk, Carl; Wolf, Fred

2016-01-01

Neuronal activity in the central nervous system varies strongly in time and across neuronal populations. It is a longstanding proposal that such fluctuations generically arise from chaotic network dynamics. Various theoretical studies predict that the rich dynamics of rate models operating in the chaotic regime can subserve circuit computation and learning. Neurons in the brain, however, communicate via spikes and it is a theoretical challenge to obtain similar rate fluctuations in networks of spiking neuron models. A recent study investigated spiking balanced networks of leaky integrate and fire (LIF) neurons and compared their dynamics to a matched rate network with identical topology, where single unit input-output functions were chosen from isolated LIF neurons receiving Gaussian white noise input. A mathematical analogy between the chaotic instability in networks of rate units and the spiking network dynamics was proposed. Here we revisit the behavior of the spiking LIF networks and these matched rate networks. We find expected hallmarks of a chaotic instability in the rate network: For supercritical coupling strength near the transition point, the autocorrelation time diverges. For subcritical coupling strengths, we observe critical slowing down in response to small external perturbations. In the spiking network, we found in contrast that the timescale of the autocorrelations is insensitive to the coupling strength and that rate deviations resulting from small input perturbations rapidly decay. The decay speed even accelerates for increasing coupling strength. In conclusion, our reanalysis demonstrates fundamental differences between the behavior of pulse-coupled spiking LIF networks and rate networks with matched topology and input-output function. In particular there is no indication of a corresponding chaotic instability in the spiking network.

Empirical Modeling of the Plasmasphere Dynamics Using Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhelavskaya, I. S.; Shprits, Y.; Spasojevic, M.

2017-12-01

We present a new empirical model for reconstructing the global dynamics of the cold plasma density distribution based only on solar wind data and geomagnetic indices. Utilizing the density database obtained using the NURD (Neural-network-based Upper hybrid Resonance Determination) algorithm for the period of October 1, 2012 - July 1, 2016, in conjunction with solar wind data and geomagnetic indices, we develop a neural network model that is capable of globally reconstructing the dynamics of the cold plasma density distribution for 2 ≤ L ≤ 6 and all local times. We validate and test the model by measuring its performance on independent datasets withheld from the training set and by comparing the model predicted global evolution with global images of He+ distribution in the Earth's plasmasphere from the IMAGE Extreme UltraViolet (EUV) instrument. We identify the parameters that best quantify the plasmasphere dynamics by training and comparing multiple neural networks with different combinations of input parameters (geomagnetic indices, solar wind data, and different durations of their time history). We demonstrate results of both local and global plasma density reconstruction. This study illustrates how global dynamics can be reconstructed from local in-situ observations by using machine learning techniques.

Particle Interactions Mediated by Dynamical Networks: Assessment of Macroscopic Descriptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barré, J.; Carrillo, J. A.; Degond, P.; Peurichard, D.; Zatorska, E.

2018-02-01

We provide a numerical study of the macroscopic model of Barré et al. (Multiscale Model Simul, 2017, to appear) derived from an agent-based model for a system of particles interacting through a dynamical network of links. Assuming that the network remodeling process is very fast, the macroscopic model takes the form of a single aggregation-diffusion equation for the density of particles. The theoretical study of the macroscopic model gives precise criteria for the phase transitions of the steady states, and in the one-dimensional case, we show numerically that the stationary solutions of the microscopic model undergo the same phase transitions and bifurcation types as the macroscopic model. In the two-dimensional case, we show that the numerical simulations of the macroscopic model are in excellent agreement with the predicted theoretical values. This study provides a partial validation of the formal derivation of the macroscopic model from a microscopic formulation and shows that the former is a consistent approximation of an underlying particle dynamics, making it a powerful tool for the modeling of dynamical networks at a large scale.

Nonequilibrium dynamics of probe filaments in actin-myosin networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gladrow, J.; Broedersz, C. P.; Schmidt, C. F.

2017-08-01

Active dynamic processes of cells are largely driven by the cytoskeleton, a complex and adaptable semiflexible polymer network, motorized by mechanoenzymes. Small dimensions, confined geometries, and hierarchical structures make it challenging to probe dynamics and mechanical response of such networks. Embedded semiflexible probe polymers can serve as nonperturbing multiscale probes to detect force distributions in active polymer networks. We show here that motor-induced forces transmitted to the probe polymers are reflected in nonequilibrium bending dynamics, which we analyze in terms of spatial eigenmodes of an elastic beam under steady-state conditions. We demonstrate how these active forces induce correlations among the mode amplitudes, which furthermore break time-reversal symmetry. This leads to a breaking of detailed balance in this mode space. We derive analytical predictions for the magnitude of resulting probability currents in mode space in the white-noise limit of motor activity. We relate the structure of these currents to the spatial profile of motor-induced forces along the probe polymers and provide a general relation for observable currents on two-dimensional hyperplanes.

Particle Interactions Mediated by Dynamical Networks: Assessment of Macroscopic Descriptions.

PubMed

Barré, J; Carrillo, J A; Degond, P; Peurichard, D; Zatorska, E

2018-01-01

We provide a numerical study of the macroscopic model of Barré et al. (Multiscale Model Simul, 2017, to appear) derived from an agent-based model for a system of particles interacting through a dynamical network of links. Assuming that the network remodeling process is very fast, the macroscopic model takes the form of a single aggregation-diffusion equation for the density of particles. The theoretical study of the macroscopic model gives precise criteria for the phase transitions of the steady states, and in the one-dimensional case, we show numerically that the stationary solutions of the microscopic model undergo the same phase transitions and bifurcation types as the macroscopic model. In the two-dimensional case, we show that the numerical simulations of the macroscopic model are in excellent agreement with the predicted theoretical values. This study provides a partial validation of the formal derivation of the macroscopic model from a microscopic formulation and shows that the former is a consistent approximation of an underlying particle dynamics, making it a powerful tool for the modeling of dynamical networks at a large scale.

Very long transients, irregular firing, and chaotic dynamics in networks of randomly connected inhibitory integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Zillmer, Rüdiger; Brunel, Nicolas; Hansel, David

2009-03-01

We present results of an extensive numerical study of the dynamics of networks of integrate-and-fire neurons connected randomly through inhibitory interactions. We first consider delayed interactions with infinitely fast rise and decay. Depending on the parameters, the network displays transients which are short or exponentially long in the network size. At the end of these transients, the dynamics settle on a periodic attractor. If the number of connections per neuron is large ( approximately 1000) , this attractor is a cluster state with a short period. In contrast, if the number of connections per neuron is small ( approximately 100) , the attractor has complex dynamics and very long period. During the long transients the neurons fire in a highly irregular manner. They can be viewed as quasistationary states in which, depending on the coupling strength, the pattern of activity is asynchronous or displays population oscillations. In the first case, the average firing rates and the variability of the single-neuron activity are well described by a mean-field theory valid in the thermodynamic limit. Bifurcations of the long transient dynamics from asynchronous to synchronous activity are also well predicted by this theory. The transient dynamics display features reminiscent of stable chaos. In particular, despite being linearly stable, the trajectories of the transient dynamics are destabilized by finite perturbations as small as O(1/N) . We further show that stable chaos is also observed for postsynaptic currents with finite decay time. However, we report in this type of network that chaotic dynamics characterized by positive Lyapunov exponents can also be observed. We show in fact that chaos occurs when the decay time of the synaptic currents is long compared to the synaptic delay, provided that the network is sufficiently large.

Fundamental structures of dynamic social networks.

PubMed

Sekara, Vedran; Stopczynski, Arkadiusz; Lehmann, Sune

2016-09-06

Social systems are in a constant state of flux, with dynamics spanning from minute-by-minute changes to patterns present on the timescale of years. Accurate models of social dynamics are important for understanding the spreading of influence or diseases, formation of friendships, and the productivity of teams. Although there has been much progress on understanding complex networks over the past decade, little is known about the regularities governing the microdynamics of social networks. Here, we explore the dynamic social network of a densely-connected population of ∼1,000 individuals and their interactions in the network of real-world person-to-person proximity measured via Bluetooth, as well as their telecommunication networks, online social media contacts, geolocation, and demographic data. These high-resolution data allow us to observe social groups directly, rendering community detection unnecessary. Starting from 5-min time slices, we uncover dynamic social structures expressed on multiple timescales. On the hourly timescale, we find that gatherings are fluid, with members coming and going, but organized via a stable core of individuals. Each core represents a social context. Cores exhibit a pattern of recurring meetings across weeks and months, each with varying degrees of regularity. Taken together, these findings provide a powerful simplification of the social network, where cores represent fundamental structures expressed with strong temporal and spatial regularity. Using this framework, we explore the complex interplay between social and geospatial behavior, documenting how the formation of cores is preceded by coordination behavior in the communication networks and demonstrating that social behavior can be predicted with high precision.

Fundamental structures of dynamic social networks

PubMed Central

Sekara, Vedran; Stopczynski, Arkadiusz; Lehmann, Sune

2016-01-01

Social systems are in a constant state of flux, with dynamics spanning from minute-by-minute changes to patterns present on the timescale of years. Accurate models of social dynamics are important for understanding the spreading of influence or diseases, formation of friendships, and the productivity of teams. Although there has been much progress on understanding complex networks over the past decade, little is known about the regularities governing the microdynamics of social networks. Here, we explore the dynamic social network of a densely-connected population of ∼1,000 individuals and their interactions in the network of real-world person-to-person proximity measured via Bluetooth, as well as their telecommunication networks, online social media contacts, geolocation, and demographic data. These high-resolution data allow us to observe social groups directly, rendering community detection unnecessary. Starting from 5-min time slices, we uncover dynamic social structures expressed on multiple timescales. On the hourly timescale, we find that gatherings are fluid, with members coming and going, but organized via a stable core of individuals. Each core represents a social context. Cores exhibit a pattern of recurring meetings across weeks and months, each with varying degrees of regularity. Taken together, these findings provide a powerful simplification of the social network, where cores represent fundamental structures expressed with strong temporal and spatial regularity. Using this framework, we explore the complex interplay between social and geospatial behavior, documenting how the formation of cores is preceded by coordination behavior in the communication networks and demonstrating that social behavior can be predicted with high precision. PMID:27555584

A Data-Driven Response Virtual Sensor Technique with Partial Vibration Measurements Using Convolutional Neural Network.

PubMed

Sun, Shan-Bin; He, Yuan-Yuan; Zhou, Si-Da; Yue, Zhen-Jiang

2017-12-12

Measurement of dynamic responses plays an important role in structural health monitoring, damage detection and other fields of research. However, in aerospace engineering, the physical sensors are limited in the operational conditions of spacecraft, due to the severe environment in outer space. This paper proposes a virtual sensor model with partial vibration measurements using a convolutional neural network. The transmissibility function is employed as prior knowledge. A four-layer neural network with two convolutional layers, one fully connected layer, and an output layer is proposed as the predicting model. Numerical examples of two different structural dynamic systems demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. The excellence of the novel technique is further indicated using a simply supported beam experiment comparing to a modal-model-based virtual sensor, which uses modal parameters, such as mode shapes, for estimating the responses of the faulty sensors. The results show that the presented data-driven response virtual sensor technique can predict structural response with high accuracy.

Experimental and Computational Studies of Cortical Neural Network Properties Through Signal Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clawson, Wesley Patrick

Previous studies, both theoretical and experimental, of network level dynamics in the cerebral cortex show evidence for a statistical phenomenon called criticality; a phenomenon originally studied in the context of phase transitions in physical systems and that is associated with favorable information processing in the context of the brain. The focus of this thesis is to expand upon past results with new experimentation and modeling to show a relationship between criticality and the ability to detect and discriminate sensory input. A line of theoretical work predicts maximal sensory discrimination as a functional benefit of criticality, which can then be characterized using mutual information between sensory input, visual stimulus, and neural response,. The primary finding of our experiments in the visual cortex in turtles and neuronal network modeling confirms this theoretical prediction. We show that sensory discrimination is maximized when visual cortex operates near criticality. In addition to presenting this primary finding in detail, this thesis will also address our preliminary results on change-point-detection in experimentally measured cortical dynamics.

A Data-Driven Response Virtual Sensor Technique with Partial Vibration Measurements Using Convolutional Neural Network

PubMed Central

Sun, Shan-Bin; He, Yuan-Yuan; Zhou, Si-Da; Yue, Zhen-Jiang

2017-01-01

Measurement of dynamic responses plays an important role in structural health monitoring, damage detection and other fields of research. However, in aerospace engineering, the physical sensors are limited in the operational conditions of spacecraft, due to the severe environment in outer space. This paper proposes a virtual sensor model with partial vibration measurements using a convolutional neural network. The transmissibility function is employed as prior knowledge. A four-layer neural network with two convolutional layers, one fully connected layer, and an output layer is proposed as the predicting model. Numerical examples of two different structural dynamic systems demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. The excellence of the novel technique is further indicated using a simply supported beam experiment comparing to a modal-model-based virtual sensor, which uses modal parameters, such as mode shapes, for estimating the responses of the faulty sensors. The results show that the presented data-driven response virtual sensor technique can predict structural response with high accuracy. PMID:29231868

Reconstruction of an Immune Dynamic Model to Simulate the Contrasting Role of Auxin and Cytokinin in Plant Immunity.

PubMed

Kaltdorf, Martin; Dandekar, Thomas; Naseem, Muhammad

2017-01-01

In order to increase our understanding of biological dependencies in plant immune signaling pathways, the known interactions involved in plant immune networks are modeled. This allows computational analysis to predict the functions of growth related hormones in plant-pathogen interaction. The SQUAD (Standardized Qualitative Dynamical Systems) algorithm first determines stable system states in the network and then use them to compute continuous dynamical system states. Our reconstructed Boolean model encompassing hormone immune networks of Arabidopsis thaliana (Arabidopsis) and pathogenicity factors injected by model pathogen Pseudomonas syringae pv. tomato DC3000 (Pst DC3000) can be exploited to determine the impact of growth hormones in plant immunity. We describe a detailed working protocol how to use the modified SQUAD-package by exemplifying the contrasting effects of auxin and cytokinins in shaping plant-pathogen interaction.

Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Novak, M.; Wootton, J.T.; Doak, D.F.; Emmerson, M.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.

2011-01-01

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (??25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Using neural networks for prediction of air pollution index in industrial city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, P. A.; Panchenko, A. A.; Safarov, A. M.

2017-10-01

This scientific paper is dedicated to the use of artificial neural networks for the ecological prediction of state of the atmospheric air of an industrial city for capability of the operative environmental decisions. In the paper, there is also the described development of two types of prediction models for determining of the air pollution index on the basis of neural networks: a temporal (short-term forecast of the pollutants content in the air for the nearest days) and a spatial (forecast of atmospheric pollution index in any point of city). The stages of development of the neural network models are briefly overviewed and description of their parameters is also given. The assessment of the adequacy of the prediction models, based on the calculation of the correlation coefficient between the output and reference data, is also provided. Moreover, due to the complexity of perception of the «neural network code» of the offered models by the ordinary users, the software implementations allowing practical usage of neural network models are also offered. It is established that the obtained neural network models provide sufficient reliable forecast, which means that they are an effective tool for analyzing and predicting the behavior of dynamics of the air pollution in an industrial city. Thus, this scientific work successfully develops the urgent matter of forecasting of the atmospheric air pollution index in industrial cities based on the use of neural network models.

A dynamic feedforward neural network based on gaussian particle swarm optimization and its application for predictive control.

PubMed

Han, Min; Fan, Jianchao; Wang, Jun

2011-09-01

A dynamic feedforward neural network (DFNN) is proposed for predictive control, whose adaptive parameters are adjusted by using Gaussian particle swarm optimization (GPSO) in the training process. Adaptive time-delay operators are added in the DFNN to improve its generalization for poorly known nonlinear dynamic systems with long time delays. Furthermore, GPSO adopts a chaotic map with Gaussian function to balance the exploration and exploitation capabilities of particles, which improves the computational efficiency without compromising the performance of the DFNN. The stability of the particle dynamics is analyzed, based on the robust stability theory, without any restrictive assumption. A stability condition for the GPSO+DFNN model is derived, which ensures a satisfactory global search and quick convergence, without the need for gradients. The particle velocity ranges could change adaptively during the optimization process. The results of a comparative study show that the performance of the proposed algorithm can compete with selected algorithms on benchmark problems. Additional simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed combination algorithm in identifying and controlling nonlinear systems with long time delays.

Discovering novel phenotypes with automatically inferred dynamic models: a partial melanocyte conversion in Xenopus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobo, Daniel; Lobikin, Maria; Levin, Michael

2017-01-01

Progress in regenerative medicine requires reverse-engineering cellular control networks to infer perturbations with desired systems-level outcomes. Such dynamic models allow phenotypic predictions for novel perturbations to be rapidly assessed in silico. Here, we analyzed a Xenopus model of conversion of melanocytes to a metastatic-like phenotype only previously observed in an all-or-none manner. Prior in vivo genetic and pharmacological experiments showed that individual animals either fully convert or remain normal, at some characteristic frequency after a given perturbation. We developed a Machine Learning method which inferred a model explaining this complex, stochastic all-or-none dataset. We then used this model to ask how a new phenotype could be generated: animals in which only some of the melanocytes converted. Systematically performing in silico perturbations, the model predicted that a combination of altanserin (5HTR2 inhibitor), reserpine (VMAT inhibitor), and VP16-XlCreb1 (constitutively active CREB) would break the all-or-none concordance. Remarkably, applying the predicted combination of three reagents in vivo revealed precisely the expected novel outcome, resulting in partial conversion of melanocytes within individuals. This work demonstrates the capability of automated analysis of dynamic models of signaling networks to discover novel phenotypes and predictively identify specific manipulations that can reach them.

Dynamic Socialized Gaussian Process Models for Human Behavior Prediction in a Health Social Network

PubMed Central

Shen, Yelong; Phan, NhatHai; Xiao, Xiao; Jin, Ruoming; Sun, Junfeng; Piniewski, Brigitte; Kil, David; Dou, Dejing

2016-01-01

Modeling and predicting human behaviors, such as the level and intensity of physical activity, is a key to preventing the cascade of obesity and helping spread healthy behaviors in a social network. In our conference paper, we have developed a social influence model, named Socialized Gaussian Process (SGP), for socialized human behavior modeling. Instead of explicitly modeling social influence as individuals' behaviors influenced by their friends' previous behaviors, SGP models the dynamic social correlation as the result of social influence. The SGP model naturally incorporates personal behavior factor and social correlation factor (i.e., the homophily principle: Friends tend to perform similar behaviors) into a unified model. And it models the social influence factor (i.e., an individual's behavior can be affected by his/her friends) implicitly in dynamic social correlation schemes. The detailed experimental evaluation has shown the SGP model achieves better prediction accuracy compared with most of baseline methods. However, a Socialized Random Forest model may perform better at the beginning compared with the SGP model. One of the main reasons is the dynamic social correlation function is purely based on the users' sequential behaviors without considering other physical activity-related features. To address this issue, we further propose a novel “multi-feature SGP model” (mfSGP) which improves the SGP model by using multiple physical activity-related features in the dynamic social correlation learning. Extensive experimental results illustrate that the mfSGP model clearly outperforms all other models in terms of prediction accuracy and running time. PMID:27746515

Bringing simulation to engineers in the field: a Web 2.0 approach.

PubMed

Haines, Robert; Khan, Kashif; Brooke, John

2009-07-13

Field engineers working on water distribution systems have to implement day-to-day operational decisions. Since pipe networks are highly interconnected, the effects of such decisions are correlated with hydraulic and water quality conditions elsewhere in the network. This makes the provision of predictive decision support tools (DSTs) for field engineers critical to optimizing the engineering work on the network. We describe how we created DSTs to run on lightweight mobile devices by using the Web 2.0 technique known as Software as a Service. We designed our system following the architectural style of representational state transfer. The system not only displays static geographical information system data for pipe networks, but also dynamic information and prediction of network state, by invoking and displaying the results of simulations running on more powerful remote resources.

Lessons from 15 years of monitoring sudden oak death and forest dynamics in California forests

Treesearch

Margaret Metz; J. Morgan Varner; Ross Meentemeyer; Kerri Frangioso; David Rizzo

2017-01-01

Monitoring host composition and disease impacts began 15 years ago in what would become a network of permanent forest monitoring plots throughout the known and predicted range of Phytophthora ramorum in California coastal forests. Stretching ~500 miles from Big Sur to the Oregon border, the network captures variation in interactions among...

Degradation Prediction Model Based on a Neural Network with Dynamic Windows

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xinghui; Xiao, Lei; Kang, Jianshe

2015-01-01

Tracking degradation of mechanical components is very critical for effective maintenance decision making. Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is a widely used form of degradation prediction. RUL prediction methods when enough run-to-failure condition monitoring data can be used have been fully researched, but for some high reliability components, it is very difficult to collect run-to-failure condition monitoring data, i.e., from normal to failure. Only a certain number of condition indicators in certain period can be used to estimate RUL. In addition, some existing prediction methods have problems which block RUL estimation due to poor extrapolability. The predicted value converges to a certain constant or fluctuates in certain range. Moreover, the fluctuant condition features also have bad effects on prediction. In order to solve these dilemmas, this paper proposes a RUL prediction model based on neural network with dynamic windows. This model mainly consists of three steps: window size determination by increasing rate, change point detection and rolling prediction. The proposed method has two dominant strengths. One is that the proposed approach does not need to assume the degradation trajectory is subject to a certain distribution. The other is it can adapt to variation of degradation indicators which greatly benefits RUL prediction. Finally, the performance of the proposed RUL prediction model is validated by real field data and simulation data. PMID:25806873

Endogenous Molecular-Cellular Network Cancer Theory: A Systems Biology Approach.

PubMed

Wang, Gaowei; Yuan, Ruoshi; Zhu, Xiaomei; Ao, Ping

2018-01-01

In light of ever apparent limitation of the current dominant cancer mutation theory, a quantitative hypothesis for cancer genesis and progression, endogenous molecular-cellular network hypothesis has been proposed from the systems biology perspective, now for more than 10 years. It was intended to include both the genetic and epigenetic causes to understand cancer. Its development enters the stage of meaningful interaction with experimental and clinical data and the limitation of the traditional cancer mutation theory becomes more evident. Under this endogenous network hypothesis, we established a core working network of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) according to the hypothesis and quantified the working network by a nonlinear dynamical system. We showed that the two stable states of the working network reproduce the main known features of normal liver and HCC at both the modular and molecular levels. Using endogenous network hypothesis and validated working network, we explored genetic mutation pattern in cancer and potential strategies to cure or relieve HCC from a totally new perspective. Patterns of genetic mutations have been traditionally analyzed by posteriori statistical association approaches in light of traditional cancer mutation theory. One may wonder the possibility of a priori determination of any mutation regularity. Here, we found that based on the endogenous network theory the features of genetic mutations in cancers may be predicted without any prior knowledge of mutation propensities. Normal hepatocyte and cancerous hepatocyte stable states, specified by distinct patterns of expressions or activities of proteins in the network, provide means to directly identify a set of most probable genetic mutations and their effects in HCC. As the key proteins and main interactions in the network are conserved through cell types in an organism, similar mutational features may also be found in other cancers. This analysis yielded straightforward and testable predictions on an accumulated and preferred mutation spectrum in normal tissue. The validation of predicted cancer state mutation patterns demonstrates the usefulness and potential of a causal dynamical framework to understand and predict genetic mutations in cancer. We also obtained the following implication related to HCC therapy, (1) specific positive feedback loops are responsible for the maintenance of normal liver and HCC; (2) inhibiting proliferation and inflammation-related positive feedback loops, and simultaneously inducing liver-specific positive feedback loop is predicated as the potential strategy to cure or relieve HCC; (3) the genesis and regression of HCC is asymmetric. In light of the characteristic property of the nonlinear dynamical system, we demonstrate that positive feedback loops must be existed as a simple and general molecular basis for the maintenance of phenotypes such as normal liver and HCC, and regulating the positive feedback loops directly or indirectly provides potential strategies to cure or relieve HCC.

Dynamic Divisive Normalization Predicts Time-Varying Value Coding in Decision-Related Circuits

PubMed Central

LoFaro, Thomas; Webb, Ryan; Glimcher, Paul W.

2014-01-01

Normalization is a widespread neural computation, mediating divisive gain control in sensory processing and implementing a context-dependent value code in decision-related frontal and parietal cortices. Although decision-making is a dynamic process with complex temporal characteristics, most models of normalization are time-independent and little is known about the dynamic interaction of normalization and choice. Here, we show that a simple differential equation model of normalization explains the characteristic phasic-sustained pattern of cortical decision activity and predicts specific normalization dynamics: value coding during initial transients, time-varying value modulation, and delayed onset of contextual information. Empirically, we observe these predicted dynamics in saccade-related neurons in monkey lateral intraparietal cortex. Furthermore, such models naturally incorporate a time-weighted average of past activity, implementing an intrinsic reference-dependence in value coding. These results suggest that a single network mechanism can explain both transient and sustained decision activity, emphasizing the importance of a dynamic view of normalization in neural coding. PMID:25429145

Quantifying sleep architecture dynamics and individual differences using big data and Bayesian networks

PubMed Central

Shelton, Christian; Mednick, Sara C.

2018-01-01

The pattern of sleep stages across a night (sleep architecture) is influenced by biological, behavioral, and clinical variables. However, traditional measures of sleep architecture such as stage proportions, fail to capture sleep dynamics. Here we quantify the impact of individual differences on the dynamics of sleep architecture and determine which factors or set of factors best predict the next sleep stage from current stage information. We investigated the influence of age, sex, body mass index, time of day, and sleep time on static (e.g. minutes in stage, sleep efficiency) and dynamic measures of sleep architecture (e.g. transition probabilities and stage duration distributions) using a large dataset of 3202 nights from a non-clinical population. Multi-level regressions show that sex effects duration of all Non-Rapid Eye Movement (NREM) stages, and age has a curvilinear relationship for Wake After Sleep Onset (WASO) and slow wave sleep (SWS) minutes. Bayesian network modeling reveals sleep architecture depends on time of day, total sleep time, age and sex, but not BMI. Older adults, and particularly males, have shorter bouts (more fragmentation) of Stage 2, SWS, and they transition less frequently to these stages. Additionally, we showed that the next sleep stage and its duration can be optimally predicted by the prior 2 stages and age. Our results demonstrate the potential benefit of big data and Bayesian network approaches in quantifying static and dynamic architecture of normal sleep. PMID:29641599

Quantifying sleep architecture dynamics and individual differences using big data and Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Yetton, Benjamin D; McDevitt, Elizabeth A; Cellini, Nicola; Shelton, Christian; Mednick, Sara C

2018-01-01

The pattern of sleep stages across a night (sleep architecture) is influenced by biological, behavioral, and clinical variables. However, traditional measures of sleep architecture such as stage proportions, fail to capture sleep dynamics. Here we quantify the impact of individual differences on the dynamics of sleep architecture and determine which factors or set of factors best predict the next sleep stage from current stage information. We investigated the influence of age, sex, body mass index, time of day, and sleep time on static (e.g. minutes in stage, sleep efficiency) and dynamic measures of sleep architecture (e.g. transition probabilities and stage duration distributions) using a large dataset of 3202 nights from a non-clinical population. Multi-level regressions show that sex effects duration of all Non-Rapid Eye Movement (NREM) stages, and age has a curvilinear relationship for Wake After Sleep Onset (WASO) and slow wave sleep (SWS) minutes. Bayesian network modeling reveals sleep architecture depends on time of day, total sleep time, age and sex, but not BMI. Older adults, and particularly males, have shorter bouts (more fragmentation) of Stage 2, SWS, and they transition less frequently to these stages. Additionally, we showed that the next sleep stage and its duration can be optimally predicted by the prior 2 stages and age. Our results demonstrate the potential benefit of big data and Bayesian network approaches in quantifying static and dynamic architecture of normal sleep.

Self-Adaptive Prediction of Cloud Resource Demands Using Ensemble Model and Subtractive-Fuzzy Clustering Based Fuzzy Neural Network

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhijia; Zhu, Yuanchang; Di, Yanqiang; Feng, Shaochong

2015-01-01

In IaaS (infrastructure as a service) cloud environment, users are provisioned with virtual machines (VMs). To allocate resources for users dynamically and effectively, accurate resource demands predicting is essential. For this purpose, this paper proposes a self-adaptive prediction method using ensemble model and subtractive-fuzzy clustering based fuzzy neural network (ESFCFNN). We analyze the characters of user preferences and demands. Then the architecture of the prediction model is constructed. We adopt some base predictors to compose the ensemble model. Then the structure and learning algorithm of fuzzy neural network is researched. To obtain the number of fuzzy rules and the initial value of the premise and consequent parameters, this paper proposes the fuzzy c-means combined with subtractive clustering algorithm, that is, the subtractive-fuzzy clustering. Finally, we adopt different criteria to evaluate the proposed method. The experiment results show that the method is accurate and effective in predicting the resource demands. PMID:25691896

Computing the Local Field Potential (LFP) from Integrate-and-Fire Network Models.

PubMed

Mazzoni, Alberto; Lindén, Henrik; Cuntz, Hermann; Lansner, Anders; Panzeri, Stefano; Einevoll, Gaute T

2015-12-01

Leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) network models are commonly used to study how the spiking dynamics of neural networks changes with stimuli, tasks or dynamic network states. However, neurophysiological studies in vivo often rather measure the mass activity of neuronal microcircuits with the local field potential (LFP). Given that LFPs are generated by spatially separated currents across the neuronal membrane, they cannot be computed directly from quantities defined in models of point-like LIF neurons. Here, we explore the best approximation for predicting the LFP based on standard output from point-neuron LIF networks. To search for this best "LFP proxy", we compared LFP predictions from candidate proxies based on LIF network output (e.g, firing rates, membrane potentials, synaptic currents) with "ground-truth" LFP obtained when the LIF network synaptic input currents were injected into an analogous three-dimensional (3D) network model of multi-compartmental neurons with realistic morphology, spatial distributions of somata and synapses. We found that a specific fixed linear combination of the LIF synaptic currents provided an accurate LFP proxy, accounting for most of the variance of the LFP time course observed in the 3D network for all recording locations. This proxy performed well over a broad set of conditions, including substantial variations of the neuronal morphologies. Our results provide a simple formula for estimating the time course of the LFP from LIF network simulations in cases where a single pyramidal population dominates the LFP generation, and thereby facilitate quantitative comparison between computational models and experimental LFP recordings in vivo.

Network representations of immune system complexity

PubMed Central

Subramanian, Naeha; Torabi-Parizi, Parizad; Gottschalk, Rachel A.; Germain, Ronald N.; Dutta, Bhaskar

2015-01-01

The mammalian immune system is a dynamic multi-scale system composed of a hierarchically organized set of molecular, cellular and organismal networks that act in concert to promote effective host defense. These networks range from those involving gene regulatory and protein-protein interactions underlying intracellular signaling pathways and single cell responses to increasingly complex networks of in vivo cellular interaction, positioning and migration that determine the overall immune response of an organism. Immunity is thus not the product of simple signaling events but rather non-linear behaviors arising from dynamic, feedback-regulated interactions among many components. One of the major goals of systems immunology is to quantitatively measure these complex multi-scale spatial and temporal interactions, permitting development of computational models that can be used to predict responses to perturbation. Recent technological advances permit collection of comprehensive datasets at multiple molecular and cellular levels while advances in network biology support representation of the relationships of components at each level as physical or functional interaction networks. The latter facilitate effective visualization of patterns and recognition of emergent properties arising from the many interactions of genes, molecules, and cells of the immune system. We illustrate the power of integrating ‘omics’ and network modeling approaches for unbiased reconstruction of signaling and transcriptional networks with a focus on applications involving the innate immune system. We further discuss future possibilities for reconstruction of increasingly complex cellular and organism-level networks and development of sophisticated computational tools for prediction of emergent immune behavior arising from the concerted action of these networks. PMID:25625853

Computing the Local Field Potential (LFP) from Integrate-and-Fire Network Models

PubMed Central

Cuntz, Hermann; Lansner, Anders; Panzeri, Stefano; Einevoll, Gaute T.

2015-01-01

Leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) network models are commonly used to study how the spiking dynamics of neural networks changes with stimuli, tasks or dynamic network states. However, neurophysiological studies in vivo often rather measure the mass activity of neuronal microcircuits with the local field potential (LFP). Given that LFPs are generated by spatially separated currents across the neuronal membrane, they cannot be computed directly from quantities defined in models of point-like LIF neurons. Here, we explore the best approximation for predicting the LFP based on standard output from point-neuron LIF networks. To search for this best “LFP proxy”, we compared LFP predictions from candidate proxies based on LIF network output (e.g, firing rates, membrane potentials, synaptic currents) with “ground-truth” LFP obtained when the LIF network synaptic input currents were injected into an analogous three-dimensional (3D) network model of multi-compartmental neurons with realistic morphology, spatial distributions of somata and synapses. We found that a specific fixed linear combination of the LIF synaptic currents provided an accurate LFP proxy, accounting for most of the variance of the LFP time course observed in the 3D network for all recording locations. This proxy performed well over a broad set of conditions, including substantial variations of the neuronal morphologies. Our results provide a simple formula for estimating the time course of the LFP from LIF network simulations in cases where a single pyramidal population dominates the LFP generation, and thereby facilitate quantitative comparison between computational models and experimental LFP recordings in vivo. PMID:26657024

Message survival and decision dynamics in a class of reactive complex systems subject to external fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez Lucatero, C.; Schaum, A.; Alarcon Ramos, L.; Bernal-Jaquez, R.

2014-07-01

In this study, the dynamics of decisions in complex networks subject to external fields are studied within a Markov process framework using nonlinear dynamical systems theory. A mathematical discrete-time model is derived using a set of basic assumptions regarding the convincement mechanisms associated with two competing opinions. The model is analyzed with respect to the multiplicity of critical points and the stability of extinction states. Sufficient conditions for extinction are derived in terms of the convincement probabilities and the maximum eigenvalues of the associated connectivity matrices. The influences of exogenous (e.g., mass media-based) effects on decision behavior are analyzed qualitatively. The current analysis predicts: (i) the presence of fixed-point multiplicity (with a maximum number of four different fixed points), multi-stability, and sensitivity with respect to the process parameters; and (ii) the bounded but significant impact of exogenous perturbations on the decision behavior. These predictions were verified using a set of numerical simulations based on a scale-free network topology.

Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks

PubMed Central

Holme, Petter

2013-01-01

Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. Mainly owing to the development of data recording and analysis techniques, an increasing amount of social contact data with time stamps has been collected in the last decade. Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. However, they also call for extended analysis tools for network epidemiology, which has, to date, mostly viewed networks as static entities. We review recent results of network epidemiology for such temporal network data and discuss future developments. PMID:23513178

Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks.

PubMed

Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

2013-01-01

Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. Mainly owing to the development of data recording and analysis techniques, an increasing amount of social contact data with time stamps has been collected in the last decade. Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. However, they also call for extended analysis tools for network epidemiology, which has, to date, mostly viewed networks as static entities. We review recent results of network epidemiology for such temporal network data and discuss future developments.

Dynamical predictors of an imminent phenotypic switch in bacteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huijing; Ray, J. Christian J.

2017-08-01

Single cells can stochastically switch across thresholds imposed by regulatory networks. Such thresholds can act as a tipping point, drastically changing global phenotypic states. In ecology and economics, imminent transitions across such tipping points can be predicted using dynamical early warning indicators. A typical example is ‘flickering’ of a fast variable, predicting a longer-lasting switch from a low to a high state or vice versa. Considering the different timescales between metabolite and protein fluctuations in bacteria, we hypothesized that metabolic early warning indicators predict imminent transitions across a network threshold caused by enzyme saturation. We used stochastic simulations to determine if flickering predicts phenotypic transitions, accounting for a variety of molecular physiological parameters, including enzyme affinity, burstiness of enzyme gene expression, homeostatic feedback, and rates of metabolic precursor influx. In most cases, we found that metabolic flickering rates are robustly peaked near the enzyme saturation threshold. The degree of fluctuation was amplified by product inhibition of the enzyme. We conclude that sensitivity to flickering in fast variables may be a possible natural or synthetic strategy to prepare physiological states for an imminent transition.

A functional connectivity-based neuromarker of sustained attention generalizes to predict recall in a reading task.

PubMed

Jangraw, David C; Gonzalez-Castillo, Javier; Handwerker, Daniel A; Ghane, Merage; Rosenberg, Monica D; Panwar, Puja; Bandettini, Peter A

2018-02-01

Sustaining attention to the task at hand is a crucial part of everyday life, from following a lecture at school to maintaining focus while driving. Lapses in sustained attention are frequent and often problematic, with conditions such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder affecting millions of people worldwide. Recent work has had some success in finding signatures of sustained attention in whole-brain functional connectivity (FC) measures during basic tasks, but since FC can be dynamic and task-dependent, it remains unclear how fully these signatures would generalize to a more complex and naturalistic scenario. To this end, we used a previously defined whole-brain FC network - a marker of attention that was derived from a sustained attention task - to predict the ability of participants to recall material during a free-viewing reading task. Though the predictive network was trained on a different task and set of participants, the strength of FC in the sustained attention network predicted reading recall significantly better than permutation tests where behavior was scrambled to simulate chance performance. To test the generalization of the method used to derive the sustained attention network, we applied the same method to our reading task data to find a new FC network whose strength specifically predicts reading recall. Even though the sustained attention network provided significant prediction of recall, the reading network was more predictive of recall accuracy. The new reading network's spatial distribution indicates that reading recall is highest when temporal pole regions have higher FC with left occipital regions and lower FC with bilateral supramarginal gyrus. Right cerebellar to right frontal connectivity is also indicative of poor reading recall. We examine these and other differences between the two predictive FC networks, providing new insight into the task-dependent nature of FC-based performance metrics. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Lack of consensus in social systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benczik, I. J.; Benczik, S. Z.; Schmittmann, B.; Zia, R. K. P.

2008-05-01

We propose an exactly solvable model for the dynamics of voters in a two-party system. The opinion formation process is modeled on a random network of agents. The dynamical nature of interpersonal relations is also reflected in the model, as the connections in the network evolve with the dynamics of the voters. In the infinite time limit, an exact solution predicts the emergence of consensus, for arbitrary initial conditions. However, before consensus is reached, two different metastable states can persist for exponentially long times. One state reflects a perfect balancing of opinions, the other reflects a completely static situation. An estimate of the associated lifetimes suggests that lack of consensus is typical for large systems.

Study protocol for a prospective cohort study examining the predictive potential of dynamic symptom networks for the onset and progression of psychosis: the Mapping Individual Routes of Risk and Resilience (Mirorr) study.

PubMed

Booij, Sanne H; Wichers, Marieke; de Jonge, Peter; Sytema, Sjoerd; van Os, Jim; Wunderink, Lex; Wigman, Johanna T W

2018-01-21

Our current ability to predict the course and outcome of early psychotic symptoms is limited, hampering timely treatment. To improve our understanding of the development of psychosis, a different approach to psychopathology may be productive. We propose to reconceptualise psychopathology from a network perspective, according to which symptoms act as a dynamic, interconnected system, impacting on each other over time and across diagnostic boundaries to form symptom networks. Adopting this network approach, the Mapping Individual Routes of Risk and Resilience study aims to determine whether characteristics of symptom networks can predict illness course and outcome of early psychotic symptoms. The sample consists of n=100 participants aged 18-35 years, divided into four subgroups (n=4×25) with increasing levels of severity of psychopathology, representing successive stages of clinical progression. Individuals representing the initial stage have a relatively low expression of psychotic experiences (general population), whereas individuals representing the end stage are help seeking and display a psychometric expression of psychosis, putting them at ultra-high risk for transition to psychotic disorder. At baseline and 1-year follow-up, participants report their symptoms, affective states and experiences for three consecutive months in short, daily questionnaires on their smartphone, which will be used to map individual networks. Network parameters, including the strength and directionality of symptom connections and centrality indices, will be estimated and associated to individual differences in and within-individual progression through stages of clinical severity and functioning over the next 3 years. The study has been approved by the local medical ethical committee (ABR no. NL52974.042.15). The results of the study will be published in (inter)national peer-reviewed journals, presented at research, clinical and general public conferences. The results will assist in improving and fine-tuning dynamic models of psychopathology, stimulating both clinical and scientific progress. NTR6205 ; Pre-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Dynamics of Multistable States during Ongoing and Evoked Cortical Activity

PubMed Central

Mazzucato, Luca

2015-01-01

Single-trial analyses of ensemble activity in alert animals demonstrate that cortical circuits dynamics evolve through temporal sequences of metastable states. Metastability has been studied for its potential role in sensory coding, memory, and decision-making. Yet, very little is known about the network mechanisms responsible for its genesis. It is often assumed that the onset of state sequences is triggered by an external stimulus. Here we show that state sequences can be observed also in the absence of overt sensory stimulation. Analysis of multielectrode recordings from the gustatory cortex of alert rats revealed ongoing sequences of states, where single neurons spontaneously attain several firing rates across different states. This single-neuron multistability represents a challenge to existing spiking network models, where typically each neuron is at most bistable. We present a recurrent spiking network model that accounts for both the spontaneous generation of state sequences and the multistability in single-neuron firing rates. Each state results from the activation of neural clusters with potentiated intracluster connections, with the firing rate in each cluster depending on the number of active clusters. Simulations show that the model's ensemble activity hops among the different states, reproducing the ongoing dynamics observed in the data. When probed with external stimuli, the model predicts the quenching of single-neuron multistability into bistability and the reduction of trial-by-trial variability. Both predictions were confirmed in the data. Together, these results provide a theoretical framework that captures both ongoing and evoked network dynamics in a single mechanistic model. PMID:26019337

Integrating System Dynamics and Bayesian Networks with Application to Counter-IED Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jarman, Kenneth D.; Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.

2010-06-06

The practice of choosing a single modeling paradigm for predictive analysis can limit the scope and relevance of predictions and their utility to decision-making processes. Considering multiple modeling methods simultaneously may improve this situation, but a better solution provides a framework for directly integrating different, potentially complementary modeling paradigms to enable more comprehensive modeling and predictions, and thus better-informed decisions. The primary challenges of this kind of model integration are to bridge language and conceptual gaps between modeling paradigms, and to determine whether natural and useful linkages can be made in a formal mathematical manner. To address these challenges inmore » the context of two specific modeling paradigms, we explore mathematical and computational options for linking System Dynamics (SD) and Bayesian network (BN) models and incorporating data into the integrated models. We demonstrate that integrated SD/BN models can naturally be described as either state space equations or Dynamic Bayes Nets, which enables the use of many existing computational methods for simulation and data integration. To demonstrate, we apply our model integration approach to techno-social models of insurgent-led attacks and security force counter-measures centered on improvised explosive devices.« less

Integrating dynamic fuzzy C-means, data envelopment analysis and artificial neural network to online prediction performance of companies in stock exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahangoshai Rezaee, Mustafa; Jozmaleki, Mehrdad; Valipour, Mahsa

2018-01-01

One of the main features to invest in stock exchange companies is their financial performance. On the other hand, conventional evaluation methods such as data envelopment analysis are not only a retrospective process, but are also a process, which are incomplete and ineffective approaches to evaluate the companies in the future. To remove this problem, it is required to plan an expert system for evaluating organizations when the online data are received from stock exchange market. This paper deals with an approach for predicting the online financial performance of companies when data are received in different time's intervals. The proposed approach is based on integrating fuzzy C-means (FCM), data envelopment analysis (DEA) and artificial neural network (ANN). The classical FCM method is unable to update the number of clusters and their members when the data are changed or the new data are received. Hence, this method is developed in order to make dynamic features for the number of clusters and clusters members in classical FCM. Then, DEA is used to evaluate DMUs by using financial ratios to provide targets in neural network. Finally, the designed network is trained and prepared for predicting companies' future performance. The data on Tehran Stock Market companies for six consecutive years (2007-2012) are used to show the abilities of the proposed approach.

Hybrid Scheme for Modeling Local Field Potentials from Point-Neuron Networks.

PubMed

Hagen, Espen; Dahmen, David; Stavrinou, Maria L; Lindén, Henrik; Tetzlaff, Tom; van Albada, Sacha J; Grün, Sonja; Diesmann, Markus; Einevoll, Gaute T

2016-12-01

With rapidly advancing multi-electrode recording technology, the local field potential (LFP) has again become a popular measure of neuronal activity in both research and clinical applications. Proper understanding of the LFP requires detailed mathematical modeling incorporating the anatomical and electrophysiological features of neurons near the recording electrode, as well as synaptic inputs from the entire network. Here we propose a hybrid modeling scheme combining efficient point-neuron network models with biophysical principles underlying LFP generation by real neurons. The LFP predictions rely on populations of network-equivalent multicompartment neuron models with layer-specific synaptic connectivity, can be used with an arbitrary number of point-neuron network populations, and allows for a full separation of simulated network dynamics and LFPs. We apply the scheme to a full-scale cortical network model for a ∼1 mm 2 patch of primary visual cortex, predict laminar LFPs for different network states, assess the relative LFP contribution from different laminar populations, and investigate effects of input correlations and neuron density on the LFP. The generic nature of the hybrid scheme and its public implementation in hybridLFPy form the basis for LFP predictions from other and larger point-neuron network models, as well as extensions of the current application with additional biological detail. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

Integrated cellular network of transcription regulations and protein-protein interactions

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background With the accumulation of increasing omics data, a key goal of systems biology is to construct networks at different cellular levels to investigate cellular machinery of the cell. However, there is currently no satisfactory method to construct an integrated cellular network that combines the gene regulatory network and the signaling regulatory pathway. Results In this study, we integrated different kinds of omics data and developed a systematic method to construct the integrated cellular network based on coupling dynamic models and statistical assessments. The proposed method was applied to S. cerevisiae stress responses, elucidating the stress response mechanism of the yeast. From the resulting integrated cellular network under hyperosmotic stress, the highly connected hubs which are functionally relevant to the stress response were identified. Beyond hyperosmotic stress, the integrated network under heat shock and oxidative stress were also constructed and the crosstalks of these networks were analyzed, specifying the significance of some transcription factors to serve as the decision-making devices at the center of the bow-tie structure and the crucial role for rapid adaptation scheme to respond to stress. In addition, the predictive power of the proposed method was also demonstrated. Conclusions We successfully construct the integrated cellular network which is validated by literature evidences. The integration of transcription regulations and protein-protein interactions gives more insight into the actual biological network and is more predictive than those without integration. The method is shown to be powerful and flexible and can be used under different conditions and for different species. The coupling dynamic models of the whole integrated cellular network are very useful for theoretical analyses and for further experiments in the fields of network biology and synthetic biology. PMID:20211003

Integrated cellular network of transcription regulations and protein-protein interactions.

PubMed

Wang, Yu-Chao; Chen, Bor-Sen

2010-03-08

With the accumulation of increasing omics data, a key goal of systems biology is to construct networks at different cellular levels to investigate cellular machinery of the cell. However, there is currently no satisfactory method to construct an integrated cellular network that combines the gene regulatory network and the signaling regulatory pathway. In this study, we integrated different kinds of omics data and developed a systematic method to construct the integrated cellular network based on coupling dynamic models and statistical assessments. The proposed method was applied to S. cerevisiae stress responses, elucidating the stress response mechanism of the yeast. From the resulting integrated cellular network under hyperosmotic stress, the highly connected hubs which are functionally relevant to the stress response were identified. Beyond hyperosmotic stress, the integrated network under heat shock and oxidative stress were also constructed and the crosstalks of these networks were analyzed, specifying the significance of some transcription factors to serve as the decision-making devices at the center of the bow-tie structure and the crucial role for rapid adaptation scheme to respond to stress. In addition, the predictive power of the proposed method was also demonstrated. We successfully construct the integrated cellular network which is validated by literature evidences. The integration of transcription regulations and protein-protein interactions gives more insight into the actual biological network and is more predictive than those without integration. The method is shown to be powerful and flexible and can be used under different conditions and for different species. The coupling dynamic models of the whole integrated cellular network are very useful for theoretical analyses and for further experiments in the fields of network biology and synthetic biology.

Basketball Teams as Strategic Networks

PubMed Central

Fewell, Jennifer H.; Armbruster, Dieter; Ingraham, John; Petersen, Alexander; Waters, James S.

2012-01-01

We asked how team dynamics can be captured in relation to function by considering games in the first round of the NBA 2010 play-offs as networks. Defining players as nodes and ball movements as links, we analyzed the network properties of degree centrality, clustering, entropy and flow centrality across teams and positions, to characterize the game from a network perspective and to determine whether we can assess differences in team offensive strategy by their network properties. The compiled network structure across teams reflected a fundamental attribute of basketball strategy. They primarily showed a centralized ball distribution pattern with the point guard in a leadership role. However, individual play-off teams showed variation in their relative involvement of other players/positions in ball distribution, reflected quantitatively by differences in clustering and degree centrality. We also characterized two potential alternate offensive strategies by associated variation in network structure: (1) whether teams consistently moved the ball towards their shooting specialists, measured as “uphill/downhill” flux, and (2) whether they distributed the ball in a way that reduced predictability, measured as team entropy. These network metrics quantified different aspects of team strategy, with no single metric wholly predictive of success. However, in the context of the 2010 play-offs, the values of clustering (connectedness across players) and network entropy (unpredictability of ball movement) had the most consistent association with team advancement. Our analyses demonstrate the utility of network approaches in quantifying team strategy and show that testable hypotheses can be evaluated using this approach. These analyses also highlight the richness of basketball networks as a dataset for exploring the relationships between network structure and dynamics with team organization and effectiveness. PMID:23139744

Basketball teams as strategic networks.

PubMed

Fewell, Jennifer H; Armbruster, Dieter; Ingraham, John; Petersen, Alexander; Waters, James S

2012-01-01

We asked how team dynamics can be captured in relation to function by considering games in the first round of the NBA 2010 play-offs as networks. Defining players as nodes and ball movements as links, we analyzed the network properties of degree centrality, clustering, entropy and flow centrality across teams and positions, to characterize the game from a network perspective and to determine whether we can assess differences in team offensive strategy by their network properties. The compiled network structure across teams reflected a fundamental attribute of basketball strategy. They primarily showed a centralized ball distribution pattern with the point guard in a leadership role. However, individual play-off teams showed variation in their relative involvement of other players/positions in ball distribution, reflected quantitatively by differences in clustering and degree centrality. We also characterized two potential alternate offensive strategies by associated variation in network structure: (1) whether teams consistently moved the ball towards their shooting specialists, measured as "uphill/downhill" flux, and (2) whether they distributed the ball in a way that reduced predictability, measured as team entropy. These network metrics quantified different aspects of team strategy, with no single metric wholly predictive of success. However, in the context of the 2010 play-offs, the values of clustering (connectedness across players) and network entropy (unpredictability of ball movement) had the most consistent association with team advancement. Our analyses demonstrate the utility of network approaches in quantifying team strategy and show that testable hypotheses can be evaluated using this approach. These analyses also highlight the richness of basketball networks as a dataset for exploring the relationships between network structure and dynamics with team organization and effectiveness.

The prediction of nonlinear dynamic loads on helicopters from flight variables using artificial neural networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, A. B.; Fuller, C. R.; O'Brien, W. F.; Cabell, R. H.

1992-01-01

A method of indirectly monitoring component loads through common flight variables is proposed which requires an accurate model of the underlying nonlinear relationships. An artificial neural network (ANN) model learns relationships through exposure to a database of flight variable records and corresponding load histories from an instrumented military helicopter undergoing standard maneuvers. The ANN model, utilizing eight standard flight variables as inputs, is trained to predict normalized time-varying mean and oscillatory loads on two critical components over a range of seven maneuvers. Both interpolative and extrapolative capabilities are demonstrated with agreement between predicted and measured loads on the order of 90 percent to 95 percent. This work justifies pursuing the ANN method of predicting loads from flight variables.

Disease spreading in real-life networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallos, Lazaros; Argyrakis, Panos

2002-08-01

In recent years the scientific community has shown a vivid interest in the network structure and dynamics of real-life organized systems. Many such systems, covering an extremely wide range of applications, have been recently shown to exhibit scale-free character in their connectivity distribution, meaning that they obey a power law. Modeling of epidemics on lattices and small-world networks suffers from the presence of a critical infection threshold, above which the entire population is infected. For scale-free networks, the original assumption was that the formation of a giant cluster would lead to an epidemic spreading in the same way as in simpler networks. Here we show that modeling epidemics on a scale-free network can greatly improve the predictions on the rate and efficiency of spreading, as compared to lattice models and small-world networks. We also show that the dynamics of a disease are greatly influenced by the underlying population structure. The exact same model can describe a plethora of networks, such as social networks, virus spreading in the Web, rumor spreading, signal transmission etc.

Using System Dynamic Model and Neural Network Model to Analyse Water Scarcity in Sudan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Tang, C.; Xu, L.; Ye, S.

2017-07-01

Many parts of the world are facing the problem of Water Scarcity. Analysing Water Scarcity quantitatively is an important step to solve the problem. Water scarcity in a region is gauged by WSI (water scarcity index), which incorporate water supply and water demand. To get the WSI, Neural Network Model and SDM (System Dynamic Model) that depict how environmental and social factors affect water supply and demand are developed to depict how environmental and social factors affect water supply and demand. The uneven distribution of water resource and water demand across a region leads to an uneven distribution of WSI within this region. To predict WSI for the future, logistic model, Grey Prediction, and statistics are applied in predicting variables. Sudan suffers from severe water scarcity problem with WSI of 1 in 2014, water resource unevenly distributed. According to the result of modified model, after the intervention, Sudan’s water situation will become better.

Dynamic transcriptional signatures and network responses for clinical symptoms in influenza-infected human subjects using systems biology approaches.

PubMed

Linel, Patrice; Wu, Shuang; Deng, Nan; Wu, Hulin

2014-10-01

Recent studies demonstrate that human blood transcriptional signatures may be used to support diagnosis and clinical decisions for acute respiratory viral infections such as influenza. In this article, we propose to use a newly developed systems biology approach for time course gene expression data to identify significant dynamically response genes and dynamic gene network responses to viral infection. We illustrate the methodological pipeline by reanalyzing the time course gene expression data from a study with healthy human subjects challenged by live influenza virus. We observed clear differences in the number of significant dynamic response genes (DRGs) between the symptomatic and asymptomatic subjects and also identified DRG signatures for symptomatic subjects with influenza infection. The 505 common DRGs shared by the symptomatic subjects have high consistency with the signature genes for predicting viral infection identified in previous works. The temporal response patterns and network response features were carefully analyzed and investigated.

An algebra-based method for inferring gene regulatory networks

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from experimental observations is at the heart of systems biology. This includes the inference of both the network topology and its dynamics. While there are many algorithms available to infer the network topology from experimental data, less emphasis has been placed on methods that infer network dynamics. Furthermore, since the network inference problem is typically underdetermined, it is essential to have the option of incorporating into the inference process, prior knowledge about the network, along with an effective description of the search space of dynamic models. Finally, it is also important to have an understanding of how a given inference method is affected by experimental and other noise in the data used. Results This paper contains a novel inference algorithm using the algebraic framework of Boolean polynomial dynamical systems (BPDS), meeting all these requirements. The algorithm takes as input time series data, including those from network perturbations, such as knock-out mutant strains and RNAi experiments. It allows for the incorporation of prior biological knowledge while being robust to significant levels of noise in the data used for inference. It uses an evolutionary algorithm for local optimization with an encoding of the mathematical models as BPDS. The BPDS framework allows an effective representation of the search space for algebraic dynamic models that improves computational performance. The algorithm is validated with both simulated and experimental microarray expression profile data. Robustness to noise is tested using a published mathematical model of the segment polarity gene network in Drosophila melanogaster. Benchmarking of the algorithm is done by comparison with a spectrum of state-of-the-art network inference methods on data from the synthetic IRMA network to demonstrate that our method has good precision and recall for the network reconstruction task, while also predicting several of the dynamic patterns present in the network. Conclusions Boolean polynomial dynamical systems provide a powerful modeling framework for the reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks, that enables a rich mathematical structure on the model search space. A C++ implementation of the method, distributed under LPGL license, is available, together with the source code, at http://www.paola-vera-licona.net/Software/EARevEng/REACT.html. PMID:24669835

Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction.

PubMed

Baker, Christopher M; Gordon, Ascelin; Bode, Michael

2017-04-01

Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Traveller Information System for Heterogeneous Traffic Condition: A Case Study in Thiruvananthapuram City, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satyakumar, M.; Anil, R.; Sreeja, G. S.

2017-12-01

Traffic in Kerala has been growing at a rate of 10-11% every year, resulting severe congestion especially in urban areas. Because of the limitation of spaces it is not always possible to construct new roads. Road users rely on travel time information for journey planning and route choice decisions, while road system managers are increasingly viewing travel time as an important network performance indicator. More recently Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) are being developed to provide real-time information to roadway users. For ATIS various methodologies have been developed for dynamic travel time prediction. For this work the Kalman Filter Algorithm was selected for dynamic travel time prediction of different modes. The travel time data collected using handheld GPS device were used for prediction. Congestion Index were calculated and Range of CI values were determined according to the percentage speed drop. After prediction using Kalman Filter, the predicted values along with the GPS data was integrated to GIS and using Network Analysis of ArcGIS the offline route navigation guide was prepared. Using this database a program for route navigation based on travel time was developed. This system will help the travelers with pre-trip information.

Design and analysis of a model predictive controller for active queue management.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Chen, Hong; Yang, Xiaoping; Ma, Yan

2012-01-01

Model predictive (MP) control as a novel active queue management (AQM) algorithm in dynamic computer networks is proposed. According to the predicted future queue length in the data buffer, early packets at the router are dropped reasonably by the MPAQM controller so that the queue length reaches the desired value with minimal tracking error. The drop probability is obtained by optimizing the network performance. Further, randomized algorithms are applied to analyze the robustness of MPAQM successfully, and also to provide the stability domain of systems with uncertain network parameters. The performances of MPAQM are evaluated through a series of simulations in NS2. The simulation results show that the MPAQM algorithm outperforms RED, PI, and REM algorithms in terms of stability, disturbance rejection, and robustness. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intrinsic Cellular Properties and Connectivity Density Determine Variable Clustering Patterns in Randomly Connected Inhibitory Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Rich, Scott; Booth, Victoria; Zochowski, Michal

2016-01-01

The plethora of inhibitory interneurons in the hippocampus and cortex play a pivotal role in generating rhythmic activity by clustering and synchronizing cell firing. Results of our simulations demonstrate that both the intrinsic cellular properties of neurons and the degree of network connectivity affect the characteristics of clustered dynamics exhibited in randomly connected, heterogeneous inhibitory networks. We quantify intrinsic cellular properties by the neuron's current-frequency relation (IF curve) and Phase Response Curve (PRC), a measure of how perturbations given at various phases of a neurons firing cycle affect subsequent spike timing. We analyze network bursting properties of networks of neurons with Type I or Type II properties in both excitability and PRC profile; Type I PRCs strictly show phase advances and IF curves that exhibit frequencies arbitrarily close to zero at firing threshold while Type II PRCs display both phase advances and delays and IF curves that have a non-zero frequency at threshold. Type II neurons whose properties arise with or without an M-type adaptation current are considered. We analyze network dynamics under different levels of cellular heterogeneity and as intrinsic cellular firing frequency and the time scale of decay of synaptic inhibition are varied. Many of the dynamics exhibited by these networks diverge from the predictions of the interneuron network gamma (ING) mechanism, as well as from results in all-to-all connected networks. Our results show that randomly connected networks of Type I neurons synchronize into a single cluster of active neurons while networks of Type II neurons organize into two mutually exclusive clusters segregated by the cells' intrinsic firing frequencies. Networks of Type II neurons containing the adaptation current behave similarly to networks of either Type I or Type II neurons depending on network parameters; however, the adaptation current creates differences in the cluster dynamics compared to those in networks of Type I or Type II neurons. To understand these results, we compute neuronal PRCs calculated with a perturbation matching the profile of the synaptic current in our networks. Differences in profiles of these PRCs across the different neuron types reveal mechanisms underlying the divergent network dynamics. PMID:27812323

Symmetries and stability of chimera states in small, globally-coupled networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Joseph D.; Bansal, Kanika; Murphy, Thomas E.; Roy, Rajarshi

It has recently been demonstrated that symmetries in a network's topology can help predict the patterns of synchronized clusters that can emerge in a network of coupled oscillators. This and related discoveries have led to increased interest in both network symmetries and cluster synchronization. In parallel with these discoveries, interest in chimera states-dynamical patterns in which a network separates into coherent and incoherent portions-has grown, and chimeras have now been observed in a variety of experimental systems. We present an opto-electronic experiment in which both chimera states and synchronized clusters are observed in a small, globally-coupled network. We show that the symmetries and sub-symmetries of the network permit the formation of the chimera and cluster states. A recently developed group theoretical approach enables us to predict the stability of the observed chimera and cluster states, and highlights the close relationship between chimera and cluster states as belonging to the broader phenomenon of partial synchronization.

Topological structure and mechanics of glassy polymer networks.

PubMed

Elder, Robert M; Sirk, Timothy W

2017-11-22

The influence of chain-level network architecture (i.e., topology) on mechanics was explored for unentangled polymer networks using a blend of coarse-grained molecular simulations and graph-theoretic concepts. A simple extension of the Watts-Strogatz model is proposed to control the graph properties of the network such that the corresponding physical properties can be studied with simulations. The architecture of polymer networks assembled with a dynamic curing approach were compared with the extended Watts-Strogatz model, and found to agree surprisingly well. The final cured structures of the dynamically-assembled networks were nearly an intermediate between lattice and random connections due to restrictions imposed by the finite length of the chains. Further, the uni-axial stress response, character of the bond breaking, and non-affine displacements of fully-cured glassy networks were analyzed as a function of the degree of disorder in the network architecture. It is shown that the architecture strongly affects the network stability, flow stress, onset of bond breaking, and ultimate stress while leaving the modulus and yield point nearly unchanged. The results show that internal restrictions imposed by the network architecture alter the chain-level response through changes to the crosslink dynamics in the flow regime and through the degree of coordinated chain failure at the ultimate stress. The properties considered here are shown to be sensitive to even incremental changes to the architecture and, therefore, the overall network architecture, beyond simple defects, is predicted to be a meaningful physical parameter in the mechanics of glassy polymer networks.

Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review.

PubMed

Wang, Zhen; Andrews, Michael A; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Wang, Lin; Bauch, Chris T

2015-12-01

It is increasingly recognized that a key component of successful infection control efforts is understanding the complex, two-way interaction between disease dynamics and human behavioral and social dynamics. Human behavior such as contact precautions and social distancing clearly influence disease prevalence, but disease prevalence can in turn alter human behavior, forming a coupled, nonlinear system. Moreover, in many cases, the spatial structure of the population cannot be ignored, such that social and behavioral processes and/or transmission of infection must be represented with complex networks. Research on studying coupled disease-behavior dynamics in complex networks in particular is growing rapidly, and frequently makes use of analysis methods and concepts from statistical physics. Here, we review some of the growing literature in this area. We contrast network-based approaches to homogeneous-mixing approaches, point out how their predictions differ, and describe the rich and often surprising behavior of disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks, and compare them to processes in statistical physics. We discuss how these models can capture the dynamics that characterize many real-world scenarios, thereby suggesting ways that policy makers can better design effective prevention strategies. We also describe the growing sources of digital data that are facilitating research in this area. Finally, we suggest pitfalls which might be faced by researchers in the field, and we suggest several ways in which the field could move forward in the coming years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiplex visibility graphs to investigate recurrent neural network dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianchi, Filippo Maria; Livi, Lorenzo; Alippi, Cesare; Jenssen, Robert

2017-03-01

A recurrent neural network (RNN) is a universal approximator of dynamical systems, whose performance often depends on sensitive hyperparameters. Tuning them properly may be difficult and, typically, based on a trial-and-error approach. In this work, we adopt a graph-based framework to interpret and characterize internal dynamics of a class of RNNs called echo state networks (ESNs). We design principled unsupervised methods to derive hyperparameters configurations yielding maximal ESN performance, expressed in terms of prediction error and memory capacity. In particular, we propose to model time series generated by each neuron activations with a horizontal visibility graph, whose topological properties have been shown to be related to the underlying system dynamics. Successively, horizontal visibility graphs associated with all neurons become layers of a larger structure called a multiplex. We show that topological properties of such a multiplex reflect important features of ESN dynamics that can be used to guide the tuning of its hyperparamers. Results obtained on several benchmarks and a real-world dataset of telephone call data records show the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Multiplex visibility graphs to investigate recurrent neural network dynamics

PubMed Central

Bianchi, Filippo Maria; Livi, Lorenzo; Alippi, Cesare; Jenssen, Robert

2017-01-01

A recurrent neural network (RNN) is a universal approximator of dynamical systems, whose performance often depends on sensitive hyperparameters. Tuning them properly may be difficult and, typically, based on a trial-and-error approach. In this work, we adopt a graph-based framework to interpret and characterize internal dynamics of a class of RNNs called echo state networks (ESNs). We design principled unsupervised methods to derive hyperparameters configurations yielding maximal ESN performance, expressed in terms of prediction error and memory capacity. In particular, we propose to model time series generated by each neuron activations with a horizontal visibility graph, whose topological properties have been shown to be related to the underlying system dynamics. Successively, horizontal visibility graphs associated with all neurons become layers of a larger structure called a multiplex. We show that topological properties of such a multiplex reflect important features of ESN dynamics that can be used to guide the tuning of its hyperparamers. Results obtained on several benchmarks and a real-world dataset of telephone call data records show the effectiveness of the proposed methods. PMID:28281563

Adaptation to sensory input tunes visual cortex to criticality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shew, Woodrow L.; Clawson, Wesley P.; Pobst, Jeff; Karimipanah, Yahya; Wright, Nathaniel C.; Wessel, Ralf

2015-08-01

A long-standing hypothesis at the interface of physics and neuroscience is that neural networks self-organize to the critical point of a phase transition, thereby optimizing aspects of sensory information processing. This idea is partially supported by strong evidence for critical dynamics observed in the cerebral cortex, but the impact of sensory input on these dynamics is largely unknown. Thus, the foundations of this hypothesis--the self-organization process and how it manifests during strong sensory input--remain unstudied experimentally. Here we show in visual cortex and in a computational model that strong sensory input initially elicits cortical network dynamics that are not critical, but adaptive changes in the network rapidly tune the system to criticality. This conclusion is based on observations of multifaceted scaling laws predicted to occur at criticality. Our findings establish sensory adaptation as a self-organizing mechanism that maintains criticality in visual cortex during sensory information processing.

A Dynamic Network Model to Explain the Development of Excellent Human Performance

PubMed Central

Den Hartigh, Ruud J. R.; Van Dijk, Marijn W. G.; Steenbeek, Henderien W.; Van Geert, Paul L. C.

2016-01-01

Across different domains, from sports to science, some individuals accomplish excellent levels of performance. For over 150 years, researchers have debated the roles of specific nature and nurture components to develop excellence. In this article, we argue that the key to excellence does not reside in specific underlying components, but rather in the ongoing interactions among the components. We propose that excellence emerges out of dynamic networks consisting of idiosyncratic mixtures of interacting components such as genetic endowment, motivation, practice, and coaching. Using computer simulations we demonstrate that the dynamic network model accurately predicts typical properties of excellence reported in the literature, such as the idiosyncratic developmental trajectories leading to excellence and the highly skewed distributions of productivity present in virtually any achievement domain. Based on this novel theoretical perspective on excellent human performance, this article concludes by suggesting policy implications and directions for future research. PMID:27148140

Mapping the ecological networks of microbial communities.

PubMed

Xiao, Yandong; Angulo, Marco Tulio; Friedman, Jonathan; Waldor, Matthew K; Weiss, Scott T; Liu, Yang-Yu

2017-12-11

Mapping the ecological networks of microbial communities is a necessary step toward understanding their assembly rules and predicting their temporal behavior. However, existing methods require assuming a particular population dynamics model, which is not known a priori. Moreover, those methods require fitting longitudinal abundance data, which are often not informative enough for reliable inference. To overcome these limitations, here we develop a new method based on steady-state abundance data. Our method can infer the network topology and inter-taxa interaction types without assuming any particular population dynamics model. Additionally, when the population dynamics is assumed to follow the classic Generalized Lotka-Volterra model, our method can infer the inter-taxa interaction strengths and intrinsic growth rates. We systematically validate our method using simulated data, and then apply it to four experimental data sets. Our method represents a key step towards reliable modeling of complex, real-world microbial communities, such as the human gut microbiota.

Asymptotically inspired moment-closure approximation for adaptive networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shkarayev, Maxim

2013-03-01

Dynamics of adaptive social networks, in which nodes and network structure co-evolve, are often described using a mean-field system of equations for the density of node and link types. These equations constitute an open system due to dependence on higher order topological structures. We propose a systematic approach to moment closure approximation based on the analytical description of the system in an asymptotic regime. We apply the proposed approach to two examples of adaptive networks: recruitment to a cause model and adaptive epidemic model. We show a good agreement between the mean-field prediction and simulations of the full network system.

Short-Term Load Forecasting Based Automatic Distribution Network Reconfiguration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Huaiguang; Ding, Fei; Zhang, Yingchen

In a traditional dynamic network reconfiguration study, the optimal topology is determined at every scheduled time point by using the real load data measured at that time. The development of the load forecasting technique can provide an accurate prediction of the load power that will happen in a future time and provide more information about load changes. With the inclusion of load forecasting, the optimal topology can be determined based on the predicted load conditions during a longer time period instead of using a snapshot of the load at the time when the reconfiguration happens; thus, the distribution system operatormore » can use this information to better operate the system reconfiguration and achieve optimal solutions. This paper proposes a short-term load forecasting approach to automatically reconfigure distribution systems in a dynamic and pre-event manner. Specifically, a short-term and high-resolution distribution system load forecasting approach is proposed with a forecaster based on support vector regression and parallel parameters optimization. The network reconfiguration problem is solved by using the forecasted load continuously to determine the optimal network topology with the minimum amount of loss at the future time. The simulation results validate and evaluate the proposed approach.« less

Short-Term Load Forecasting Based Automatic Distribution Network Reconfiguration: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Huaiguang; Ding, Fei; Zhang, Yingchen

In the traditional dynamic network reconfiguration study, the optimal topology is determined at every scheduled time point by using the real load data measured at that time. The development of load forecasting technique can provide accurate prediction of load power that will happen in future time and provide more information about load changes. With the inclusion of load forecasting, the optimal topology can be determined based on the predicted load conditions during the longer time period instead of using the snapshot of load at the time when the reconfiguration happens, and thus it can provide information to the distribution systemmore » operator (DSO) to better operate the system reconfiguration to achieve optimal solutions. Thus, this paper proposes a short-term load forecasting based approach for automatically reconfiguring distribution systems in a dynamic and pre-event manner. Specifically, a short-term and high-resolution distribution system load forecasting approach is proposed with support vector regression (SVR) based forecaster and parallel parameters optimization. And the network reconfiguration problem is solved by using the forecasted load continuously to determine the optimal network topology with the minimum loss at the future time. The simulation results validate and evaluate the proposed approach.« less

Short-Term Load Forecasting-Based Automatic Distribution Network Reconfiguration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Huaiguang; Ding, Fei; Zhang, Yingchen

In a traditional dynamic network reconfiguration study, the optimal topology is determined at every scheduled time point by using the real load data measured at that time. The development of the load forecasting technique can provide an accurate prediction of the load power that will happen in a future time and provide more information about load changes. With the inclusion of load forecasting, the optimal topology can be determined based on the predicted load conditions during a longer time period instead of using a snapshot of the load at the time when the reconfiguration happens; thus, the distribution system operatormore » can use this information to better operate the system reconfiguration and achieve optimal solutions. This paper proposes a short-term load forecasting approach to automatically reconfigure distribution systems in a dynamic and pre-event manner. Specifically, a short-term and high-resolution distribution system load forecasting approach is proposed with a forecaster based on support vector regression and parallel parameters optimization. The network reconfiguration problem is solved by using the forecasted load continuously to determine the optimal network topology with the minimum amount of loss at the future time. The simulation results validate and evaluate the proposed approach.« less

A Study of the Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Coupling Using Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jian-Guo; Lundstedt, Henrik

1996-12-01

The interaction between solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and Earth's magnetosphere induces geomagnetic activity. Geomagnetic storms can cause many adverse effects on technical systems in space and on the Earth. It is therefore of great significance to accurately predict geomagnetic activity so as to minimize the amount of disruption to these operational systems and to allow them to work as efficiently as possible. Dynamic neural networks are powerful in modeling the dynamics encoded in time series of data. In this study, we use partially recurrent neural networks to study the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling by predicting geomagnetic storms (as measured by the Dstindex) from solar wind measurements. The solar wind, the IMF and the geomagnetic index Dst data are hourly averaged and read from the National Space Science Data Center's OMNI database. We selected these data from the period 1963 to 1992, which cover 10552h and contain storm time periods 9552h and quiet time periods 1000h. The data are then categorized into three data sets: a training set (6634h), across-validation set (1962h), and a test set (1956h). The validation set is used to determine where the training should be stopped whereas the test set is used for neural networks to get the generalization capability (the out-of-sample performance). Based on the correlation analysis between the Dst index and various solar wind parameters (including various combinations of solar wind parameters), the best coupling functions can be found from the out-of-sample performance of trained neural networks. The coupling functions found are then used to forecast geomagnetic storms one to several hours in advance. The comparisons are made on iterating the single-step prediction several times and on making a non iterated, direct prediction. Thus, we will present the best solar wind-magnetosphere coupling functions and the corresponding prediction results. Interesting Links: Lund Space Weather and AI Center

Spatio-temporal propagation of cascading overload failures in spatially embedded networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jichang; Li, Daqing; Sanhedrai, Hillel; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

2016-01-01

Different from the direct contact in epidemics spread, overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies. Many studies focused on the critical conditions and catastrophic consequences of cascading failures. However, to understand the network vulnerability and mitigate the cascading overload failures, the knowledge of how the failures propagate in time and space is essential but still missing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation behaviour of cascading overload failures analytically and numerically on spatially embedded networks. The cascading overload failures are found to spread radially from the centre of the initial failure with an approximately constant velocity. The propagation velocity decreases with increasing tolerance, and can be well predicted by our theoretical framework with one single correction for all the tolerance values. This propagation velocity is found similar in various model networks and real network structures. Our findings may help to predict the dynamics of cascading overload failures in realistic systems.

Species traits and network structure predict the success and impacts of pollinator invasions.

PubMed

Valdovinos, Fernanda S; Berlow, Eric L; Moisset de Espanés, Pablo; Ramos-Jiliberto, Rodrigo; Vázquez, Diego P; Martinez, Neo D

2018-05-31

Species invasions constitute a major and poorly understood threat to plant-pollinator systems. General theory predicting which factors drive species invasion success and subsequent effects on native ecosystems is particularly lacking. We address this problem using a consumer-resource model of adaptive behavior and population dynamics to evaluate the invasion success of alien pollinators into plant-pollinator networks and their impact on native species. We introduce pollinator species with different foraging traits into network models with different levels of species richness, connectance, and nestedness. Among 31 factors tested, including network and alien properties, we find that aliens with high foraging efficiency are the most successful invaders. Networks exhibiting high alien-native diet overlap, fraction of alien-visited plant species, most-generalist plant connectivity, and number of specialist pollinator species are the most impacted by invaders. Our results mimic several disparate observations conducted in the field and potentially elucidate the mechanisms responsible for their variability.

High-resolution method for evolving complex interface networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Shucheng; Hu, Xiangyu Y.; Adams, Nikolaus A.

2018-04-01

In this paper we describe a high-resolution transport formulation of the regional level-set approach for an improved prediction of the evolution of complex interface networks. The novelty of this method is twofold: (i) construction of local level sets and reconstruction of a global level set, (ii) local transport of the interface network by employing high-order spatial discretization schemes for improved representation of complex topologies. Various numerical test cases of multi-region flow problems, including triple-point advection, single vortex flow, mean curvature flow, normal driven flow, dry foam dynamics and shock-bubble interaction show that the method is accurate and suitable for a wide range of complex interface-network evolutions. Its overall computational cost is comparable to the Semi-Lagrangian regional level-set method while the prediction accuracy is significantly improved. The approach thus offers a viable alternative to previous interface-network level-set method.

Spatio-temporal propagation of cascading overload failures in spatially embedded networks

PubMed Central

Zhao, Jichang; Li, Daqing; Sanhedrai, Hillel; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

2016-01-01

Different from the direct contact in epidemics spread, overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies. Many studies focused on the critical conditions and catastrophic consequences of cascading failures. However, to understand the network vulnerability and mitigate the cascading overload failures, the knowledge of how the failures propagate in time and space is essential but still missing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation behaviour of cascading overload failures analytically and numerically on spatially embedded networks. The cascading overload failures are found to spread radially from the centre of the initial failure with an approximately constant velocity. The propagation velocity decreases with increasing tolerance, and can be well predicted by our theoretical framework with one single correction for all the tolerance values. This propagation velocity is found similar in various model networks and real network structures. Our findings may help to predict the dynamics of cascading overload failures in realistic systems. PMID:26754065

Machine learning molecular dynamics for the simulation of infrared spectra.

PubMed

Gastegger, Michael; Behler, Jörg; Marquetand, Philipp

2017-10-01

Machine learning has emerged as an invaluable tool in many research areas. In the present work, we harness this power to predict highly accurate molecular infrared spectra with unprecedented computational efficiency. To account for vibrational anharmonic and dynamical effects - typically neglected by conventional quantum chemistry approaches - we base our machine learning strategy on ab initio molecular dynamics simulations. While these simulations are usually extremely time consuming even for small molecules, we overcome these limitations by leveraging the power of a variety of machine learning techniques, not only accelerating simulations by several orders of magnitude, but also greatly extending the size of systems that can be treated. To this end, we develop a molecular dipole moment model based on environment dependent neural network charges and combine it with the neural network potential approach of Behler and Parrinello. Contrary to the prevalent big data philosophy, we are able to obtain very accurate machine learning models for the prediction of infrared spectra based on only a few hundreds of electronic structure reference points. This is made possible through the use of molecular forces during neural network potential training and the introduction of a fully automated sampling scheme. We demonstrate the power of our machine learning approach by applying it to model the infrared spectra of a methanol molecule, n -alkanes containing up to 200 atoms and the protonated alanine tripeptide, which at the same time represents the first application of machine learning techniques to simulate the dynamics of a peptide. In all of these case studies we find an excellent agreement between the infrared spectra predicted via machine learning models and the respective theoretical and experimental spectra.

Temporal dynamics of connectivity and epidemic properties of growing networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fotouhi, Babak; Shirkoohi, Mehrdad Khani

2016-01-01

Traditional mathematical models of epidemic disease had for decades conventionally considered static structure for contacts. Recently, an upsurge of theoretical inquiry has strived towards rendering the models more realistic by incorporating the temporal aspects of networks of contacts, societal and online, that are of interest in the study of epidemics (and other similar diffusion processes). However, temporal dynamics have predominantly focused on link fluctuations and nodal activities, and less attention has been paid to the growth of the underlying network. Many real networks grow: Online networks are evidently in constant growth, and societal networks can grow due to migration flux and reproduction. The effect of network growth on the epidemic properties of networks is hitherto unknown, mainly due to the predominant focus of the network growth literature on the so-called steady state. This paper takes a step towards alleviating this gap. We analytically study the degree dynamics of a given arbitrary network that is subject to growth. We use the theoretical findings to predict the epidemic properties of the network as a function of time. We observe that the introduction of new individuals into the network can enhance or diminish its resilience against endemic outbreaks and investigate how this regime shift depends upon the connectivity of newcomers and on how they establish connections to existing nodes. Throughout, theoretical findings are corroborated with Monte Carlo simulations over synthetic and real networks. The results shed light on the effects of network growth on the future epidemic properties of networks and offers insights for devising a priori immunization strategies.

[The research of near-infrared blood glucose measurement using particle swarm optimization and artificial neural network].

PubMed

Dai, Juan; Ji, Zhong; Du, Yubao

2017-08-01

Existing near-infrared non-invasive blood glucose detection modelings mostly detect multi-spectral signals with different wavelength, which is not conducive to the popularization of non-invasive glucose meter at home and does not consider the physiological glucose dynamics of individuals. In order to solve these problems, this study presented a non-invasive blood glucose detection model combining particle swarm optimization (PSO) and artificial neural network (ANN) by using the 1 550 nm near-infrared absorbance as the independent variable and the concentration of blood glucose as the dependent variable, named as PSO-2ANN. The PSO-2ANN model was based on two sub-modules of neural networks with certain structures and arguments, and was built up after optimizing the weight coefficients of the two networks by particle swarm optimization. The results of 10 volunteers were predicted by PSO-2ANN. It was indicated that the relative error of 9 volunteers was less than 20%; 98.28% of the predictions of blood glucose by PSO-2ANN were distributed in the regions A and B of Clarke error grid, which confirmed that PSO-2ANN could offer higher prediction accuracy and better robustness by comparison with ANN. Additionally, even the physiological glucose dynamics of individuals may be different due to the influence of environment, temper, mental state and so on, PSO-2ANN can correct this difference only by adjusting one argument. The PSO-2ANN model provided us a new prospect to overcome individual differences in blood glucose prediction.

Modeling a full-scale primary sedimentation tank using artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Gamal El-Din, A; Smith, D W

2002-05-01

Modeling the performance of full-scale primary sedimentation tanks has been commonly done using regression-based models, which are empirical relationships derived strictly from observed daily average influent and effluent data. Another approach to model a sedimentation tank is using a hydraulic efficiency model that utilizes tracer studies to characterize the performance of model sedimentation tanks based on eddy diffusion. However, the use of hydraulic efficiency models to predict the dynamic behavior of a full-scale sedimentation tank is very difficult as the development of such models has been done using controlled studies of model tanks. In this paper, another type of model, namely artificial neural network modeling approach, is used to predict the dynamic response of a full-scale primary sedimentation tank. The neuralmodel consists of two separate networks, one uses flow and influent total suspended solids data in order to predict the effluent total suspended solids from the tank, and the other makes predictions of the effluent chemical oxygen demand using data of the flow and influent chemical oxygen demand as inputs. An extensive sampling program was conducted in order to collect a data set to be used in training and validating the networks. A systematic approach was used in the building process of the model which allowed the identification of a parsimonious neural model that is able to learn (and not memorize) from past data and generalize very well to unseen data that were used to validate the model. Theresults seem very promising. The potential of using the model as part of a real-time process control system isalso discussed.

Hybrid discrete-time neural networks.

PubMed

Cao, Hongjun; Ibarz, Borja

2010-11-13

Hybrid dynamical systems combine evolution equations with state transitions. When the evolution equations are discrete-time (also called map-based), the result is a hybrid discrete-time system. A class of biological neural network models that has recently received some attention falls within this category: map-based neuron models connected by means of fast threshold modulation (FTM). FTM is a connection scheme that aims to mimic the switching dynamics of a neuron subject to synaptic inputs. The dynamic equations of the neuron adopt different forms according to the state (either firing or not firing) and type (excitatory or inhibitory) of their presynaptic neighbours. Therefore, the mathematical model of one such network is a combination of discrete-time evolution equations with transitions between states, constituting a hybrid discrete-time (map-based) neural network. In this paper, we review previous work within the context of these models, exemplifying useful techniques to analyse them. Typical map-based neuron models are low-dimensional and amenable to phase-plane analysis. In bursting models, fast-slow decomposition can be used to reduce dimensionality further, so that the dynamics of a pair of connected neurons can be easily understood. We also discuss a model that includes electrical synapses in addition to chemical synapses with FTM. Furthermore, we describe how master stability functions can predict the stability of synchronized states in these networks. The main results are extended to larger map-based neural networks.

Collective decision dynamics in the presence of external drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassett, Danielle S.; Alderson, David L.; Carlson, Jean M.

2012-09-01

We develop a sequence of models describing information transmission and decision dynamics for a network of individual agents subject to multiple sources of influence. Our general framework is set in the context of an impending natural disaster, where individuals, represented by nodes on the network, must decide whether or not to evacuate. Sources of influence include a one-to-many externally driven global broadcast as well as pairwise interactions, across links in the network, in which agents transmit either continuous opinions or binary actions. We consider both uniform and variable threshold rules on the individual opinion as baseline models for decision making. Our results indicate that (1) social networks lead to clustering and cohesive action among individuals, (2) binary information introduces high temporal variability and stagnation, and (3) information transmission over the network can either facilitate or hinder action adoption, depending on the influence of the global broadcast relative to the social network. Our framework highlights the essential role of local interactions between agents in predicting collective behavior of the population as a whole.

Novel indexes based on network structure to indicate financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Tao; Peng, Qinke; Wang, Xiao; Zhang, Jing

2016-02-01

There have been various achievements to understand and to analyze the financial market by complex network model. However, current studies analyze the financial network model but seldom present quantified indexes to indicate or forecast the price action of market. In this paper, the stock market is modeled as a dynamic network, in which the vertices refer to listed companies and edges refer to their rank-based correlation based on price series. Characteristics of the network are analyzed and then novel indexes are introduced into market analysis, which are calculated from maximum and fully-connected subnets. The indexes are compared with existing ones and the results confirm that our indexes perform better to indicate the daily trend of market composite index in advance. Via investment simulation, the performance of our indexes is analyzed in detail. The results indicate that the dynamic complex network model could not only serve as a structural description of the financial market, but also work to predict the market and guide investment by indexes.

Topological dynamics of vortex-line networks in hexagonal manganites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Fei; Wang, Nan; Wang, Xueyun; Ji, Yanzhou; Cheong, Sang-Wook; Chen, Long-Qing

2018-01-01

The two-dimensional X Y model is the first well-studied system with topological point defects. On the other hand, although topological line defects are common in three-dimensional systems, the evolution mechanism of line defects is not fully understood. The six domains in hexagonal manganites converge to vortex lines in three dimensions. Using phase-field simulations, we predicted that during the domain coarsening process, the vortex-line network undergoes three types of basic topological changes, i.e., vortex-line loop shrinking, coalescence, and splitting. It is shown that the vortex-antivortex annihilation controls the scaling dynamics.

The transcriptional network that controls growth arrest and differentiation in a human myeloid leukemia cell line.

PubMed

Suzuki, Harukazu; Forrest, Alistair R R; van Nimwegen, Erik; Daub, Carsten O; Balwierz, Piotr J; Irvine, Katharine M; Lassmann, Timo; Ravasi, Timothy; Hasegawa, Yuki; de Hoon, Michiel J L; Katayama, Shintaro; Schroder, Kate; Carninci, Piero; Tomaru, Yasuhiro; Kanamori-Katayama, Mutsumi; Kubosaki, Atsutaka; Akalin, Altuna; Ando, Yoshinari; Arner, Erik; Asada, Maki; Asahara, Hiroshi; Bailey, Timothy; Bajic, Vladimir B; Bauer, Denis; Beckhouse, Anthony G; Bertin, Nicolas; Björkegren, Johan; Brombacher, Frank; Bulger, Erika; Chalk, Alistair M; Chiba, Joe; Cloonan, Nicole; Dawe, Adam; Dostie, Josee; Engström, Pär G; Essack, Magbubah; Faulkner, Geoffrey J; Fink, J Lynn; Fredman, David; Fujimori, Ko; Furuno, Masaaki; Gojobori, Takashi; Gough, Julian; Grimmond, Sean M; Gustafsson, Mika; Hashimoto, Megumi; Hashimoto, Takehiro; Hatakeyama, Mariko; Heinzel, Susanne; Hide, Winston; Hofmann, Oliver; Hörnquist, Michael; Huminiecki, Lukasz; Ikeo, Kazuho; Imamoto, Naoko; Inoue, Satoshi; Inoue, Yusuke; Ishihara, Ryoko; Iwayanagi, Takao; Jacobsen, Anders; Kaur, Mandeep; Kawaji, Hideya; Kerr, Markus C; Kimura, Ryuichiro; Kimura, Syuhei; Kimura, Yasumasa; Kitano, Hiroaki; Koga, Hisashi; Kojima, Toshio; Kondo, Shinji; Konno, Takeshi; Krogh, Anders; Kruger, Adele; Kumar, Ajit; Lenhard, Boris; Lennartsson, Andreas; Lindow, Morten; Lizio, Marina; Macpherson, Cameron; Maeda, Norihiro; Maher, Christopher A; Maqungo, Monique; Mar, Jessica; Matigian, Nicholas A; Matsuda, Hideo; Mattick, John S; Meier, Stuart; Miyamoto, Sei; Miyamoto-Sato, Etsuko; Nakabayashi, Kazuhiko; Nakachi, Yutaka; Nakano, Mika; Nygaard, Sanne; Okayama, Toshitsugu; Okazaki, Yasushi; Okuda-Yabukami, Haruka; Orlando, Valerio; Otomo, Jun; Pachkov, Mikhail; Petrovsky, Nikolai; Plessy, Charles; Quackenbush, John; Radovanovic, Aleksandar; Rehli, Michael; Saito, Rintaro; Sandelin, Albin; Schmeier, Sebastian; Schönbach, Christian; Schwartz, Ariel S; Semple, Colin A; Sera, Miho; Severin, Jessica; Shirahige, Katsuhiko; Simons, Cas; St Laurent, George; Suzuki, Masanori; Suzuki, Takahiro; Sweet, Matthew J; Taft, Ryan J; Takeda, Shizu; Takenaka, Yoichi; Tan, Kai; Taylor, Martin S; Teasdale, Rohan D; Tegnér, Jesper; Teichmann, Sarah; Valen, Eivind; Wahlestedt, Claes; Waki, Kazunori; Waterhouse, Andrew; Wells, Christine A; Winther, Ole; Wu, Linda; Yamaguchi, Kazumi; Yanagawa, Hiroshi; Yasuda, Jun; Zavolan, Mihaela; Hume, David A; Arakawa, Takahiro; Fukuda, Shiro; Imamura, Kengo; Kai, Chikatoshi; Kaiho, Ai; Kawashima, Tsugumi; Kawazu, Chika; Kitazume, Yayoi; Kojima, Miki; Miura, Hisashi; Murakami, Kayoko; Murata, Mitsuyoshi; Ninomiya, Noriko; Nishiyori, Hiromi; Noma, Shohei; Ogawa, Chihiro; Sano, Takuma; Simon, Christophe; Tagami, Michihira; Takahashi, Yukari; Kawai, Jun; Hayashizaki, Yoshihide

2009-05-01

Using deep sequencing (deepCAGE), the FANTOM4 study measured the genome-wide dynamics of transcription-start-site usage in the human monocytic cell line THP-1 throughout a time course of growth arrest and differentiation. Modeling the expression dynamics in terms of predicted cis-regulatory sites, we identified the key transcription regulators, their time-dependent activities and target genes. Systematic siRNA knockdown of 52 transcription factors confirmed the roles of individual factors in the regulatory network. Our results indicate that cellular states are constrained by complex networks involving both positive and negative regulatory interactions among substantial numbers of transcription factors and that no single transcription factor is both necessary and sufficient to drive the differentiation process.

Real-time Adaptive Control Using Neural Generalized Predictive Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haley, Pam; Soloway, Don; Gold, Brian

1999-01-01

The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of a Nonlinear Generalized Predictive Control algorithm by showing real-time adaptive control on a plant with relatively fast time-constants. Generalized Predictive Control has classically been used in process control where linear control laws were formulated for plants with relatively slow time-constants. The plant of interest for this paper is a magnetic levitation device that is nonlinear and open-loop unstable. In this application, the reference model of the plant is a neural network that has an embedded nominal linear model in the network weights. The control based on the linear model provides initial stability at the beginning of network training. In using a neural network the control laws are nonlinear and online adaptation of the model is possible to capture unmodeled or time-varying dynamics. Newton-Raphson is the minimization algorithm. Newton-Raphson requires the calculation of the Hessian, but even with this computational expense the low iteration rate make this a viable algorithm for real-time control.

Incorporating atmospheric uncertainties into estimates of the detection capability of the IMS infrasound network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Pichon, Alexis; Ceranna, Lars; Taillepied, Doriane

2015-04-01

To monitor compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a dedicated network is being deployed. Multi-year observations recorded by the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network confirm that its detection capability is highly variable in space and time. Today, numerical modeling techniques provide a basis to better understand the role of different factors describing the source and the atmosphere that influence propagation predictions. Previous studies estimated the radiated source energy from remote observations using frequency dependent attenuation relation and state-of-the-art specifications of the stratospheric wind. In order to account for a realistic description of the dynamic structure of the atmosphere, model predictions are further enhanced by wind and temperature error distributions as measured in the framework of the ARISE project (http://arise-project.eu/). In the context of the future verification of the CTBT, these predictions quantify uncertainties in the spatial and temporal variability of the IMS infrasound network performance in higher resolution, and will be helpful for the design and prioritizing maintenance of any arbitrary infrasound monitoring network.

Incorporating atmospheric uncertainties into estimates of the detection capability of the IMS infrasound network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Pichon, Alexis; Blanc, Elisabeth; Rüfenacht, Rolf; Kämpfer, Niklaus; Keckhut, Philippe; Hauchecorne, Alain; Ceranna, Lars; Pilger, Christoph; Ross, Ole

2014-05-01

To monitor compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a dedicated network is being deployed. Multi-year observations recorded by the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network confirm that its detection capability is highly variable in space and time. Today, numerical modeling techniques provide a basis to better understand the role of different factors describing the source and the atmosphere that influence propagation predictions. Previous studies estimated the radiated source energy from remote observations using frequency dependent attenuation relation and state-of-the-art specifications of the stratospheric wind. In order to account for a realistic description of the dynamic structure of the atmosphere, model predictions are further enhanced by wind and temperature error distributions as measured in the framework of the ARISE project (http://arise-project.eu/). In the context of the future verification of the CTBT, these predictions quantify uncertainties in the spatial and temporal variability of the IMS infrasound network performance in higher resolution, and will be helpful for the design and prioritizing maintenance of any arbitrary infrasound monitoring network.

A chemical reactor network for oxides of nitrogen emission prediction in gas turbine combustor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Nguyen Thanh

2014-06-01

This study presents the use of a new chemical reactor network (CRN) model and non-uniform injectors to predict the NOx emission pollutant in gas turbine combustor. The CRN uses information from Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) combustion analysis with two injectors of CH4-air mixture. The injectors of CH4-air mixture have different lean equivalence ratio, and they control fuel flow to stabilize combustion and adjust combustor's equivalence ratio. Non-uniform injector is applied to improve the burning process of the turbine combustor. The results of the new CRN for NOx prediction in the gas turbine combustor show very good agreement with the experimental data from Korea Electric Power Research Institute.

Time series analysis of temporal networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikdar, Sandipan; Ganguly, Niloy; Mukherjee, Animesh

2016-01-01

A common but an important feature of all real-world networks is that they are temporal in nature, i.e., the network structure changes over time. Due to this dynamic nature, it becomes difficult to propose suitable growth models that can explain the various important characteristic properties of these networks. In fact, in many application oriented studies only knowing these properties is sufficient. For instance, if one wishes to launch a targeted attack on a network, this can be done even without the knowledge of the full network structure; rather an estimate of some of the properties is sufficient enough to launch the attack. We, in this paper show that even if the network structure at a future time point is not available one can still manage to estimate its properties. We propose a novel method to map a temporal network to a set of time series instances, analyze them and using a standard forecast model of time series, try to predict the properties of a temporal network at a later time instance. To our aim, we consider eight properties such as number of active nodes, average degree, clustering coefficient etc. and apply our prediction framework on them. We mainly focus on the temporal network of human face-to-face contacts and observe that it represents a stochastic process with memory that can be modeled as Auto-Regressive-Integrated-Moving-Average (ARIMA). We use cross validation techniques to find the percentage accuracy of our predictions. An important observation is that the frequency domain properties of the time series obtained from spectrogram analysis could be used to refine the prediction framework by identifying beforehand the cases where the error in prediction is likely to be high. This leads to an improvement of 7.96% (for error level ≤20%) in prediction accuracy on an average across all datasets. As an application we show how such prediction scheme can be used to launch targeted attacks on temporal networks. Contribution to the Topical Issue "Temporal Network Theory and Applications", edited by Petter Holme.

Network analysis applications in hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Katie

2017-04-01

Applied network theory has seen pronounced expansion in recent years, in fields such as epidemiology, computer science, and sociology. Concurrent development of analytical methods and frameworks has increased possibilities and tools available to researchers seeking to apply network theory to a variety of problems. While water and nutrient fluxes through stream systems clearly demonstrate a directional network structure, the hydrological applications of network theory remain under­explored. This presentation covers a review of network applications in hydrology, followed by an overview of promising network analytical tools that potentially offer new insights into conceptual modeling of hydrologic systems, identifying behavioral transition zones in stream networks and thresholds of dynamical system response. Network applications were tested along an urbanization gradient in Atlanta, Georgia, USA. Peachtree Creek and Proctor Creek. Peachtree Creek contains a nest of five long­term USGS streamflow and water quality gages, allowing network application of long­term flow statistics. The watershed spans a range of suburban and heavily urbanized conditions. Summary flow statistics and water quality metrics were analyzed using a suite of network analysis techniques, to test the conceptual modeling and predictive potential of the methodologies. Storm events and low flow dynamics during Summer 2016 were analyzed using multiple network approaches, with an emphasis on tomogravity methods. Results indicate that network theory approaches offer novel perspectives for understanding long­ term and event­based hydrological data. Key future directions for network applications include 1) optimizing data collection, 2) identifying "hotspots" of contaminant and overland flow influx to stream systems, 3) defining process domains, and 4) analyzing dynamic connectivity of various system components, including groundwater­surface water interactions.

Prediction of rainfall anomalies during the dry to wet transition season over the Southern Amazonia using machine learning tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, X.; Zhang, K.; Zhuang, Y.; Fu, R.; Hong, Y.

2017-12-01

Seasonal prediction of rainfall during the dry-to-wet transition season in austral spring (September-November) over southern Amazonia is central for improving planting crops and fire mitigation in that region. Previous studies have identified the key large-scale atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamics pre-conditions during the dry season (June-August) that influence the rainfall anomalies during the dry to wet transition season over Southern Amazonia. Based on these key pre-conditions during dry season, we have evaluated several statistical models and developed a Neural Network based statistical prediction system to predict rainfall during the dry to wet transition for Southern Amazonia (5-15°S, 50-70°W). Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) Analysis is applied to the following four fields during JJA from the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) spanning from year 1979 to 2015: geopotential height at 200 hPa, surface relative humidity, convective inhibition energy (CIN) index and convective available potential energy (CAPE), to filter out noise and highlight the most coherent spatial and temporal variations. The first 10 EOF modes are retained for inputs to the statistical models, accounting for at least 70% of the total variance in the predictor fields. We have tested several linear and non-linear statistical methods. While the regularized Ridge Regression and Lasso Regression can generally capture the spatial pattern and magnitude of rainfall anomalies, we found that that Neural Network performs best with an accuracy greater than 80%, as expected from the non-linear dependence of the rainfall on the large-scale atmospheric thermodynamic conditions and circulation. Further tests of various prediction skill metrics and hindcasts also suggest this Neural Network prediction approach can significantly improve seasonal prediction skill than the dynamic predictions and regression based statistical predictions. Thus, this statistical prediction system could have shown potential to improve real-time seasonal rainfall predictions in the future.

Brain Dynamics in Predicting Driving Fatigue Using a Recurrent Self-Evolving Fuzzy Neural Network.

PubMed

Liu, Yu-Ting; Lin, Yang-Yin; Wu, Shang-Lin; Chuang, Chun-Hsiang; Lin, Chin-Teng

2016-02-01

This paper proposes a generalized prediction system called a recurrent self-evolving fuzzy neural network (RSEFNN) that employs an on-line gradient descent learning rule to address the electroencephalography (EEG) regression problem in brain dynamics for driving fatigue. The cognitive states of drivers significantly affect driving safety; in particular, fatigue driving, or drowsy driving, endangers both the individual and the public. For this reason, the development of brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) that can identify drowsy driving states is a crucial and urgent topic of study. Many EEG-based BCIs have been developed as artificial auxiliary systems for use in various practical applications because of the benefits of measuring EEG signals. In the literature, the efficacy of EEG-based BCIs in recognition tasks has been limited by low resolutions. The system proposed in this paper represents the first attempt to use the recurrent fuzzy neural network (RFNN) architecture to increase adaptability in realistic EEG applications to overcome this bottleneck. This paper further analyzes brain dynamics in a simulated car driving task in a virtual-reality environment. The proposed RSEFNN model is evaluated using the generalized cross-subject approach, and the results indicate that the RSEFNN is superior to competing models regardless of the use of recurrent or nonrecurrent structures.

Dynamical origins of the community structure of an online multi-layer society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klimek, Peter; Diakonova, Marina; Eguíluz, Víctor M.; San Miguel, Maxi; Thurner, Stefan

2016-08-01

Social structures emerge as a result of individuals managing a variety of different social relationships. Societies can be represented as highly structured dynamic multiplex networks. Here we study the dynamical origins of the specific community structures of a large-scale social multiplex network of a human society that interacts in a virtual world of a massive multiplayer online game. There we find substantial differences in the community structures of different social actions, represented by the various layers in the multiplex network. Community sizes distributions are either fat-tailed or appear to be centered around a size of 50 individuals. To understand these observations we propose a voter model that is built around the principle of triadic closure. It explicitly models the co-evolution of node- and link-dynamics across different layers of the multiplex network. Depending on link and node fluctuation probabilities, the model exhibits an anomalous shattered fragmentation transition, where one layer fragments from one large component into many small components. The observed community size distributions are in good agreement with the predicted fragmentation in the model. This suggests that several detailed features of the fragmentation in societies can be traced back to the triadic closure processes.

Integration of Gravitational Torques in Cerebellar Pathways Allows for the Dynamic Inverse Computation of Vertical Pointing Movements of a Robot Arm

PubMed Central

Gentili, Rodolphe J.; Papaxanthis, Charalambos; Ebadzadeh, Mehdi; Eskiizmirliler, Selim; Ouanezar, Sofiane; Darlot, Christian

2009-01-01

Background Several authors suggested that gravitational forces are centrally represented in the brain for planning, control and sensorimotor predictions of movements. Furthermore, some studies proposed that the cerebellum computes the inverse dynamics (internal inverse model) whereas others suggested that it computes sensorimotor predictions (internal forward model). Methodology/Principal Findings This study proposes a model of cerebellar pathways deduced from both biological and physical constraints. The model learns the dynamic inverse computation of the effect of gravitational torques from its sensorimotor predictions without calculating an explicit inverse computation. By using supervised learning, this model learns to control an anthropomorphic robot arm actuated by two antagonists McKibben artificial muscles. This was achieved by using internal parallel feedback loops containing neural networks which anticipate the sensorimotor consequences of the neural commands. The artificial neural networks architecture was similar to the large-scale connectivity of the cerebellar cortex. Movements in the sagittal plane were performed during three sessions combining different initial positions, amplitudes and directions of movements to vary the effects of the gravitational torques applied to the robotic arm. The results show that this model acquired an internal representation of the gravitational effects during vertical arm pointing movements. Conclusions/Significance This is consistent with the proposal that the cerebellar cortex contains an internal representation of gravitational torques which is encoded through a learning process. Furthermore, this model suggests that the cerebellum performs the inverse dynamics computation based on sensorimotor predictions. This highlights the importance of sensorimotor predictions of gravitational torques acting on upper limb movements performed in the gravitational field. PMID:19384420

Topology of Functional Connectivity and Hub Dynamics in the Beta Band As Temporal Prior for Natural Vision in the Human Brain.

PubMed

Betti, Viviana; Corbetta, Maurizio; de Pasquale, Francesco; Wens, Vincent; Della Penna, Stefania

2018-04-11

Networks hubs represent points of convergence for the integration of information across many different nodes and systems. Although a great deal is known on the topology of hub regions in the human brain, little is known about their temporal dynamics. Here, we examine the static and dynamic centrality of hub regions when measured in the absence of a task (rest) or during the observation of natural or synthetic visual stimuli. We used Magnetoencephalography (MEG) in humans (both sexes) to measure static and transient regional and network-level interaction in α- and β-band limited power (BLP) in three conditions: visual fixation (rest), viewing of movie clips (natural vision), and time-scrambled versions of the same clips (scrambled vision). Compared with rest, we observed in both movie conditions a robust decrement of α-BLP connectivity. Moreover, both movie conditions caused a significant reorganization of connections in the α band, especially between networks. In contrast, β-BLP connectivity was remarkably similar between rest and natural vision. Not only the topology did not change, but the joint dynamics of hubs in a core network during natural vision was predicted by similar fluctuations in the resting state. We interpret these findings by suggesting that slow-varying fluctuations of integration occurring in higher-order regions in the β band may be a mechanism to anticipate and predict slow-varying temporal patterns of the visual environment. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT A fundamental question in neuroscience concerns the function of spontaneous brain connectivity. Here, we tested the hypothesis that topology of intrinsic brain connectivity and its dynamics might predict those observed during natural vision. Using MEG, we tracked the static and time-varying brain functional connectivity when observers were either fixating or watching different movie clips. The spatial distribution of connections and the dynamics of centrality of a set of regions were similar during rest and movie in the β band, but not in the α band. These results support the hypothesis that the intrinsic β-rhythm integration occurs with a similar temporal structure during natural vision, possibly providing advanced information about incoming stimuli. Copyright © 2018 the authors 0270-6474/18/383858-14$15.00/0.

Automated analysis of Physarum network structure and dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fricker, Mark D.; Akita, Dai; Heaton, Luke LM; Jones, Nick; Obara, Boguslaw; Nakagaki, Toshiyuki

2017-06-01

We evaluate different ridge-enhancement and segmentation methods to automatically extract the network architecture from time-series of Physarum plasmodia withdrawing from an arena via a single exit. Whilst all methods gave reasonable results, judged by precision-recall analysis against a ground-truth skeleton, the mean phase angle (Feature Type) from intensity-independent, phase-congruency edge enhancement and watershed segmentation was the most robust to variation in threshold parameters. The resultant single pixel-wide segmented skeleton was converted to a graph representation as a set of weighted adjacency matrices containing the physical dimensions of each vein, and the inter-vein regions. We encapsulate the complete image processing and network analysis pipeline in a downloadable software package, and provide an extensive set of metrics that characterise the network structure, including hierarchical loop decomposition to analyse the nested structure of the developing network. In addition, the change in volume for each vein and intervening plasmodial sheet was used to predict the net flow across the network. The scaling relationships between predicted current, speed and shear force with vein radius were consistent with predictions from Murray’s law. This work was presented at PhysNet 2015.

Inhibition delay increases neural network capacity through Stirling transform.

PubMed

Nogaret, Alain; King, Alastair

2018-03-01

Inhibitory neural networks are found to encode high volumes of information through delayed inhibition. We show that inhibition delay increases storage capacity through a Stirling transform of the minimum capacity which stabilizes locally coherent oscillations. We obtain both the exact and asymptotic formulas for the total number of dynamic attractors. Our results predict a (ln2)^{-N}-fold increase in capacity for an N-neuron network and demonstrate high-density associative memories which host a maximum number of oscillations in analog neural devices.

Inhibition delay increases neural network capacity through Stirling transform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogaret, Alain; King, Alastair

2018-03-01

Inhibitory neural networks are found to encode high volumes of information through delayed inhibition. We show that inhibition delay increases storage capacity through a Stirling transform of the minimum capacity which stabilizes locally coherent oscillations. We obtain both the exact and asymptotic formulas for the total number of dynamic attractors. Our results predict a (ln2) -N-fold increase in capacity for an N -neuron network and demonstrate high-density associative memories which host a maximum number of oscillations in analog neural devices.

Neuronal network model of interictal and recurrent ictal activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopes, M. A.; Lee, K.-E.; Goltsev, A. V.

2017-12-01

We propose a neuronal network model which undergoes a saddle node on an invariant circle bifurcation as the mechanism of the transition from the interictal to the ictal (seizure) state. In the vicinity of this transition, the model captures important dynamical features of both interictal and ictal states. We study the nature of interictal spikes and early warnings of the transition predicted by this model. We further demonstrate that recurrent seizures emerge due to the interaction between two networks.

Oscillations and Multiple Equilibria in Microvascular Blood Flow.

PubMed

Karst, Nathaniel J; Storey, Brian D; Geddes, John B

2015-07-01

We investigate the existence of oscillatory dynamics and multiple steady-state flow rates in a network with a simple topology and in vivo microvascular blood flow constitutive laws. Unlike many previous analytic studies, we employ the most biologically relevant models of the physical properties of whole blood. Through a combination of analytic and numeric techniques, we predict in a series of two-parameter bifurcation diagrams a range of dynamical behaviors, including multiple equilibria flow configurations, simple oscillations in volumetric flow rate, and multiple coexistent limit cycles at physically realizable parameters. We show that complexity in network topology is not necessary for complex behaviors to arise and that nonlinear rheology, in particular the plasma skimming effect, is sufficient to support oscillatory dynamics similar to those observed in vivo.

Three-Dimensional Multiscale Modeling of Dendritic Spacing Selection During Al-Si Directional Solidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourret, Damien; Clarke, Amy J.; Imhoff, Seth D.; Gibbs, Paul J.; Gibbs, John W.; Karma, Alain

2015-08-01

We present a three-dimensional extension of the multiscale dendritic needle network (DNN) model. This approach enables quantitative simulations of the unsteady dynamics of complex hierarchical networks in spatially extended dendritic arrays. We apply the model to directional solidification of Al-9.8 wt.%Si alloy and directly compare the model predictions with measurements from experiments with in situ x-ray imaging. We focus on the dynamical selection of primary spacings over a range of growth velocities, and the influence of sample geometry on the selection of spacings. Simulation results show good agreement with experiments. The computationally efficient DNN model opens new avenues for investigating the dynamics of large dendritic arrays at scales relevant to solidification experiments and processes.

A Simple and Accurate Network for Hydrogen and Carbon Chemistry in the Interstellar Medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Munan; Ostriker, Eve C.; Wolfire, Mark G.

2017-07-01

Chemistry plays an important role in the interstellar medium (ISM), regulating the heating and cooling of the gas and determining abundances of molecular species that trace gas properties in observations. Although solving the time-dependent equations is necessary for accurate abundances and temperature in the dynamic ISM, a full chemical network is too computationally expensive to incorporate into numerical simulations. In this paper, we propose a new simplified chemical network for hydrogen and carbon chemistry in the atomic and molecular ISM. We compare results from our chemical network in detail with results from a full photodissociation region (PDR) code, and also with the Nelson & Langer (NL99) network previously adopted in the simulation literature. We show that our chemical network gives similar results to the PDR code in the equilibrium abundances of all species over a wide range of densities, temperature, and metallicities, whereas the NL99 network shows significant disagreement. Applying our network to 1D models, we find that the CO-dominated regime delimits the coldest gas and that the corresponding temperature tracks the cosmic-ray ionization rate in molecular clouds. We provide a simple fit for the locus of CO-dominated regions as a function of gas density and column. We also compare with observations of diffuse and translucent clouds. We find that the CO, {{CH}}x, and {{OH}}x abundances are consistent with equilibrium predictions for densities n=100{--}1000 {{cm}}-3, but the predicted equilibrium C abundance is higher than that seen in observations, signaling the potential importance of non-equilibrium/dynamical effects.

Advanced systems biology methods in drug discovery and translational biomedicine.

PubMed

Zou, Jun; Zheng, Ming-Wu; Li, Gen; Su, Zhi-Guang

2013-01-01

Systems biology is in an exponential development stage in recent years and has been widely utilized in biomedicine to better understand the molecular basis of human disease and the mechanism of drug action. Here, we discuss the fundamental concept of systems biology and its two computational methods that have been commonly used, that is, network analysis and dynamical modeling. The applications of systems biology in elucidating human disease are highlighted, consisting of human disease networks, treatment response prediction, investigation of disease mechanisms, and disease-associated gene prediction. In addition, important advances in drug discovery, to which systems biology makes significant contributions, are discussed, including drug-target networks, prediction of drug-target interactions, investigation of drug adverse effects, drug repositioning, and drug combination prediction. The systems biology methods and applications covered in this review provide a framework for addressing disease mechanism and approaching drug discovery, which will facilitate the translation of research findings into clinical benefits such as novel biomarkers and promising therapies.

The prediction of the residual life of electromechanical equipment based on the artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhukovskiy, Yu L.; Korolev, N. A.; Babanova, I. S.; Boikov, A. V.

2017-10-01

This article is devoted to the prediction of the residual life based on an estimate of the technical state of the induction motor. The proposed system allows to increase the accuracy and completeness of diagnostics by using an artificial neural network (ANN), and also identify and predict faulty states of an electrical equipment in dynamics. The results of the proposed system for estimation the technical condition are probability technical state diagrams and a quantitative evaluation of the residual life, taking into account electrical, vibrational, indirect parameters and detected defects. Based on the evaluation of the technical condition and the prediction of the residual life, a decision is made to change the control of the operating and maintenance modes of the electric motors.

Time Course of Brain Network Reconfiguration Supporting Inhibitory Control.

PubMed

Popov, Tzvetan; Westner, Britta U; Silton, Rebecca L; Sass, Sarah M; Spielberg, Jeffrey M; Rockstroh, Brigitte; Heller, Wendy; Miller, Gregory A

2018-05-02

Hemodynamic research has recently clarified key nodes and links in brain networks implementing inhibitory control. Although fMRI methods are optimized for identifying the structure of brain networks, the relatively slow temporal course of fMRI limits the ability to characterize network operation. The latter is crucial for developing a mechanistic understanding of how brain networks shift dynamically to support inhibitory control. To address this critical gap, we applied spectrally resolved Granger causality (GC) and random forest machine learning tools to human EEG data in two large samples of adults (test sample n = 96, replication sample n = 237, total N = 333, both sexes) who performed a color-word Stroop task. Time-frequency analysis confirmed that recruitment of inhibitory control accompanied by slower behavioral responses was related to changes in theta and alpha/beta power. GC analyses revealed directionally asymmetric exchanges within frontal and between frontal and parietal brain areas: top-down influence of superior frontal gyrus (SFG) over both dorsal ACC (dACC) and inferior frontal gyrus (IFG), dACC control over middle frontal gyrus (MFG), and frontal-parietal exchanges (IFG, precuneus, MFG). Predictive analytics confirmed a combination of behavioral and brain-derived variables as the best set of predictors of inhibitory control demands, with SFG theta bearing higher classification importance than dACC theta and posterior beta tracking the onset of behavioral response. The present results provide mechanistic insight into the biological implementation of a psychological phenomenon: inhibitory control is implemented by dynamic routing processes during which the target response is upregulated via theta-mediated effective connectivity within key PFC nodes and via beta-mediated motor preparation. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Hemodynamic neuroimaging research has recently clarified regional structures in brain networks supporting inhibitory control. However, due to inherent methodological constraints, much of this research has been unable to characterize the temporal dynamics of such networks (e.g., direction of information flow between nodes). Guided by fMRI research identifying the structure of brain networks supporting inhibitory control, results of EEG source analysis in a test sample ( n = 96) and replication sample ( n = 237) using effective connectivity and predictive analytics strategies advance a model of inhibitory control by characterizing the precise temporal dynamics by which this network operates and exemplify an approach by which mechanistic models can be developed for other key psychological processes. Copyright © 2018 the authors 0270-6474/18/384348-09$15.00/0.

[Early warning on measles through the neural networks].

PubMed

Yu, Bin; Ding, Chun; Wei, Shan-bo; Chen, Bang-hua; Liu, Pu-lin; Luo, Tong-yong; Wang, Jia-gang; Pan, Zhi-wei; Lu, Jun-an

2011-01-01

To discuss the effects on early warning of measles, using the neural networks. Based on the available data through monthly and weekly reports on measles from January 1986 to August 2006 in Wuhan city. The modal was developed using the neural networks to predict and analyze the prevalence and incidence of measles. When the dynamic time series modal was established with back propagation (BP) networks consisting of two layers, if p was assigned as 9, the convergence speed was acceptable and the correlation coefficient was equal to 0.85. It was more acceptable for monthly forecasting the specific value, but better for weekly forecasting the classification under probabilistic neural networks (PNN). When data was big enough to serve the purpose, it seemed more feasible for early warning using the two-layer BP networks. However, when data was not enough, then PNN could be used for the purpose of prediction. This method seemed feasible to be used in the system for early warning.

Evolution of the social network of scientific collaborations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barabási, A. L.; Jeong, H.; Néda, Z.; Ravasz, E.; Schubert, A.; Vicsek, T.

2002-08-01

The co-authorship network of scientists represents a prototype of complex evolving networks. In addition, it offers one of the most extensive database to date on social networks. By mapping the electronic database containing all relevant journals in mathematics and neuro-science for an 8-year period (1991-98), we infer the dynamic and the structural mechanisms that govern the evolution and topology of this complex system. Three complementary approaches allow us to obtain a detailed characterization. First, empirical measurements allow us to uncover the topological measures that characterize the network at a given moment, as well as the time evolution of these quantities. The results indicate that the network is scale-free, and that the network evolution is governed by preferential attachment, affecting both internal and external links. However, in contrast with most model predictions the average degree increases in time, and the node separation decreases. Second, we propose a simple model that captures the network's time evolution. In some limits the model can be solved analytically, predicting a two-regime scaling in agreement with the measurements. Third, numerical simulations are used to uncover the behavior of quantities that could not be predicted analytically. The combined numerical and analytical results underline the important role internal links play in determining the observed scaling behavior and network topology. The results and methodologies developed in the context of the co-authorship network could be useful for a systematic study of other complex evolving networks as well, such as the world wide web, Internet, or other social networks.

Detecting the tipping points in a three-state model of complex diseases by temporal differential networks.

PubMed

Chen, Pei; Li, Yongjun; Liu, Xiaoping; Liu, Rui; Chen, Luonan

2017-10-26

The progression of complex diseases, such as diabetes and cancer, is generally a nonlinear process with three stages, i.e., normal state, pre-disease state, and disease state, where the pre-disease state is a critical state or tipping point immediately preceding the disease state. Traditional biomarkers aim to identify a disease state by exploiting the information of differential expressions for the observed molecules, but may fail to detect a pre-disease state because there are generally little significant differences between the normal and pre-disease states. Thus, it is challenging to signal the pre-disease state, which actually implies the disease prediction. In this work, by exploiting the information of differential associations among the observed molecules between the normal and pre-disease states, we propose a temporal differential network based computational method to accurately signal the pre-disease state or predict the occurrence of severe disease. The theoretical foundation of this work is the quantification of the critical state using dynamical network biomarkers. Considering that there is one stationary Markov process before reaching the tipping point, a novel index, inconsistency score (I-score), is proposed to quantitatively measure the change of the stationary processes from the normal state so as to detect the onset of pre-disease state. In other words, a drastic increase of I-score implies the high inconsistency with the preceding stable state and thus signals the upcoming critical transition. This approach is applied to the simulated and real datasets of three diseases, which demonstrates the effectiveness of our method for predicting the deterioration into disease states. Both functional analysis and pathway enrichment also validate the computational results from the perspectives of both molecules and networks. At the molecular network level, this method provides a computational way of unravelling the underlying mechanism of the dynamical progression when a biological system is near the tipping point, and thus detecting the early-warning signal of the imminent critical transition, which may help to achieve timely intervention. Moreover, the rewiring of differential networks effectively extracts discriminatively interpretable features, and systematically demonstrates the dynamical change of a biological system.

The Unification Space implemented as a localist neural net: predictions and error-tolerance in a constraint-based parser.

PubMed

Vosse, Theo; Kempen, Gerard

2009-12-01

We introduce a novel computer implementation of the Unification-Space parser (Vosse and Kempen in Cognition 75:105-143, 2000) in the form of a localist neural network whose dynamics is based on interactive activation and inhibition. The wiring of the network is determined by Performance Grammar (Kempen and Harbusch in Verb constructions in German and Dutch. Benjamins, Amsterdam, 2003), a lexicalist formalism with feature unification as binding operation. While the network is processing input word strings incrementally, the evolving shape of parse trees is represented in the form of changing patterns of activation in nodes that code for syntactic properties of words and phrases, and for the grammatical functions they fulfill. The system is capable, at least qualitatively and rudimentarily, of simulating several important dynamic aspects of human syntactic parsing, including garden-path phenomena and reanalysis, effects of complexity (various types of clause embeddings), fault-tolerance in case of unification failures and unknown words, and predictive parsing (expectation-based analysis, surprisal effects). English is the target language of the parser described.

Logic-based models in systems biology: a predictive and parameter-free network analysis method†

PubMed Central

Wynn, Michelle L.; Consul, Nikita; Merajver, Sofia D.

2012-01-01

Highly complex molecular networks, which play fundamental roles in almost all cellular processes, are known to be dysregulated in a number of diseases, most notably in cancer. As a consequence, there is a critical need to develop practical methodologies for constructing and analysing molecular networks at a systems level. Mathematical models built with continuous differential equations are an ideal methodology because they can provide a detailed picture of a network’s dynamics. To be predictive, however, differential equation models require that numerous parameters be known a priori and this information is almost never available. An alternative dynamical approach is the use of discrete logic-based models that can provide a good approximation of the qualitative behaviour of a biochemical system without the burden of a large parameter space. Despite their advantages, there remains significant resistance to the use of logic-based models in biology. Here, we address some common concerns and provide a brief tutorial on the use of logic-based models, which we motivate with biological examples. PMID:23072820

Dynamic divisive normalization predicts time-varying value coding in decision-related circuits.

PubMed

Louie, Kenway; LoFaro, Thomas; Webb, Ryan; Glimcher, Paul W

2014-11-26

Normalization is a widespread neural computation, mediating divisive gain control in sensory processing and implementing a context-dependent value code in decision-related frontal and parietal cortices. Although decision-making is a dynamic process with complex temporal characteristics, most models of normalization are time-independent and little is known about the dynamic interaction of normalization and choice. Here, we show that a simple differential equation model of normalization explains the characteristic phasic-sustained pattern of cortical decision activity and predicts specific normalization dynamics: value coding during initial transients, time-varying value modulation, and delayed onset of contextual information. Empirically, we observe these predicted dynamics in saccade-related neurons in monkey lateral intraparietal cortex. Furthermore, such models naturally incorporate a time-weighted average of past activity, implementing an intrinsic reference-dependence in value coding. These results suggest that a single network mechanism can explain both transient and sustained decision activity, emphasizing the importance of a dynamic view of normalization in neural coding. Copyright © 2014 the authors 0270-6474/14/3416046-12$15.00/0.

Predicting and Detecting Emerging Cyberattack Patterns Using StreamWorks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, George; Choudhury, Sutanay; Feo, John T.

2014-06-30

The number and sophistication of cyberattacks on industries and governments have dramatically grown in recent years. To counter this movement, new advanced tools and techniques are needed to detect cyberattacks in their early stages such that defensive actions may be taken to avert or mitigate potential damage. From a cybersecurity analysis perspective, detecting cyberattacks may be cast as a problem of identifying patterns in computer network traffic. Logically and intuitively, these patterns may take on the form of a directed graph that conveys how an attack or intrusion propagates through the computers of a network. Such cyberattack graphs could providemore » cybersecurity analysts with powerful conceptual representations that are natural to express and analyze. We have been researching and developing graph-centric approaches and algorithms for dynamic cyberattack detection. The advanced dynamic graph algorithms we are developing will be packaged into a streaming network analysis framework known as StreamWorks. With StreamWorks, a scientist or analyst may detect and identify precursor events and patterns as they emerge in complex networks. This analysis framework is intended to be used in a dynamic environment where network data is streamed in and is appended to a large-scale dynamic graph. Specific graphical query patterns are decomposed and collected into a graph query library. The individual decomposed subpatterns in the library are continuously and efficiently matched against the dynamic graph as it evolves to identify and detect early, partial subgraph patterns. The scalable emerging subgraph pattern algorithms will match on both structural and semantic network properties.« less

On the Selection of Models for Runtime Prediction of System Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casolari, Sara; Colajanni, Michele

Applications and services delivered through large Internet Data Centers are now feasible thanks to network and server improvement, but also to virtualization, dynamic allocation of resources and dynamic migrations. The large number of servers and resources involved in these systems requires autonomic management strategies because no amount of human administrators would be capable of cloning and migrating virtual machines in time, as well as re-distributing or re-mapping the underlying hardware. At the basis of most autonomic management decisions, there is the need of evaluating own global behavior and change it when the evaluation indicates that they are not accomplishing what they were intended to do or some relevant anomalies are occurring. Decisions algorithms have to satisfy different time scales constraints. In this chapter we are interested to short-term contexts where runtime prediction models work on the basis of time series coming from samples of monitored system resources, such as disk, CPU and network utilization. In similar environments, we have to address two main issues. First, original time series are affected by limited predictability because measurements are characterized by noises due to system instability, variable offered load, heavy-tailed distributions, hardware and software interactions. Moreover, there is no existing criteria that can help us to choose a suitable prediction model and related parameters with the purpose of guaranteeing an adequate prediction quality. In this chapter, we evaluate the impact that different choices on prediction models have on different time series, and we suggest how to treat input data and whether it is convenient to choose the parameters of a prediction model in a static or dynamic way. Our conclusions are supported by a large set of analyses on realistic and synthetic data traces.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

D'Huys, Otti, E-mail: otti.dhuys@phy.duke.edu; Haynes, Nicholas D.; Lohmann, Johannes

Autonomous Boolean networks are commonly used to model the dynamics of gene regulatory networks and allow for the prediction of stable dynamical attractors. However, most models do not account for time delays along the network links and noise, which are crucial features of real biological systems. Concentrating on two paradigmatic motifs, the toggle switch and the repressilator, we develop an experimental testbed that explicitly includes both inter-node time delays and noise using digital logic elements on field-programmable gate arrays. We observe transients that last millions to billions of characteristic time scales and scale exponentially with the amount of time delaysmore » between nodes, a phenomenon known as super-transient scaling. We develop a hybrid model that includes time delays along network links and allows for stochastic variation in the delays. Using this model, we explain the observed super-transient scaling of both motifs and recreate the experimentally measured transient distributions.« less

Stimulation-Based Control of Dynamic Brain Networks

PubMed Central

Pasqualetti, Fabio; Gu, Shi; Cieslak, Matthew

2016-01-01

The ability to modulate brain states using targeted stimulation is increasingly being employed to treat neurological disorders and to enhance human performance. Despite the growing interest in brain stimulation as a form of neuromodulation, much remains unknown about the network-level impact of these focal perturbations. To study the system wide impact of regional stimulation, we employ a data-driven computational model of nonlinear brain dynamics to systematically explore the effects of targeted stimulation. Validating predictions from network control theory, we uncover the relationship between regional controllability and the focal versus global impact of stimulation, and we relate these findings to differences in the underlying network architecture. Finally, by mapping brain regions to cognitive systems, we observe that the default mode system imparts large global change despite being highly constrained by structural connectivity. This work forms an important step towards the development of personalized stimulation protocols for medical treatment or performance enhancement. PMID:27611328

Assembly kinetics determine the architecture of α-actinin crosslinked F-actin networks.

PubMed

Falzone, Tobias T; Lenz, Martin; Kovar, David R; Gardel, Margaret L

2012-05-29

The actin cytoskeleton is organized into diverse meshworks and bundles that support many aspects of cell physiology. Understanding the self-assembly of these actin-based structures is essential for developing predictive models of cytoskeletal organization. Here we show that the competing kinetics of bundle formation with the onset of dynamic arrest arising from filament entanglements and crosslinking determine the architecture of reconstituted actin networks formed with α-actinin crosslinks. Crosslink-mediated bundle formation only occurs in dilute solutions of highly mobile actin filaments. As actin polymerization proceeds, filament mobility and bundle formation are arrested concomitantly. By controlling the onset of dynamic arrest, perturbations to actin assembly kinetics dramatically alter the architecture of biochemically identical samples. Thus, the morphology of reconstituted F-actin networks is a kinetically determined structure similar to those formed by physical gels and glasses. These results establish mechanisms controlling the structure and mechanics in diverse semiflexible biopolymer networks.

Economic networks: the new challenges.

PubMed

Schweitzer, Frank; Fagiolo, Giorgio; Sornette, Didier; Vega-Redondo, Fernando; Vespignani, Alessandro; White, Douglas R

2009-07-24

The current economic crisis illustrates a critical need for new and fundamental understanding of the structure and dynamics of economic networks. Economic systems are increasingly built on interdependencies, implemented through trans-national credit and investment networks, trade relations, or supply chains that have proven difficult to predict and control. We need, therefore, an approach that stresses the systemic complexity of economic networks and that can be used to revise and extend established paradigms in economic theory. This will facilitate the design of policies that reduce conflicts between individual interests and global efficiency, as well as reduce the risk of global failure by making economic networks more robust.

Tracking the Evolution of Infrastructure Systems and Mass Responses Using Publically Available Data

PubMed Central

Guan, Xiangyang; Chen, Cynthia; Work, Dan

2016-01-01

Networks can evolve even on a short-term basis. This phenomenon is well understood by network scientists, but receive little attention in empirical literature involving real-world networks. On one hand, this is due to the deceitfully fixed topology of some networks such as many physical infrastructures, whose evolution is often deemed unlikely to occur in short term; on the other hand, the lack of data prohibits scientists from studying subjects such as social networks that seem likely to evolve on a short-term basis. We show that both networks—the infrastructure network and social network—are able to demonstrate evolutionary dynamics at the system level even in the short-term, characterized by shifting between different phases as predicted in network science. We develop a methodology of tracking the evolutionary dynamics of the two networks by incorporating flows and the microstructure of networks such as motifs. This approach is applied to the human interaction network and two transportation networks (subway and taxi) in the context of Hurricane Sandy, using publically available Twitter data and transportation data. Our result shows that significant changes in the system-level structure of networks can be detected on a continuous basis. This result provides a promising channel for real-time tracking in the future. PMID:27907061

The use of artificial neural networks in experimental data acquisition and aerodynamic design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meade, Andrew J., Jr.

1991-01-01

It is proposed that an artificial neural network be used to construct an intelligent data acquisition system. The artificial neural networks (ANN) model has a potential for replacing traditional procedures as well as for use in computational fluid dynamics validation. Potential advantages of the ANN model are listed. As a proof of concept, the author modeled a NACA 0012 airfoil at specific conditions, using the neural network simulator NETS, developed by James Baffes of the NASA Johnson Space Center. The neural network predictions were compared to the actual data. It is concluded that artificial neural networks can provide an elegant and valuable class of mathematical tools for data analysis.

Distributed Learning, Recognition, and Prediction by ART and ARTMAP Neural Networks.

PubMed

Carpenter, Gail A.

1997-11-01

A class of adaptive resonance theory (ART) models for learning, recognition, and prediction with arbitrarily distributed code representations is introduced. Distributed ART neural networks combine the stable fast learning capabilities of winner-take-all ART systems with the noise tolerance and code compression capabilities of multilayer perceptrons. With a winner-take-all code, the unsupervised model dART reduces to fuzzy ART and the supervised model dARTMAP reduces to fuzzy ARTMAP. With a distributed code, these networks automatically apportion learned changes according to the degree of activation of each coding node, which permits fast as well as slow learning without catastrophic forgetting. Distributed ART models replace the traditional neural network path weight with a dynamic weight equal to the rectified difference between coding node activation and an adaptive threshold. Thresholds increase monotonically during learning according to a principle of atrophy due to disuse. However, monotonic change at the synaptic level manifests itself as bidirectional change at the dynamic level, where the result of adaptation resembles long-term potentiation (LTP) for single-pulse or low frequency test inputs but can resemble long-term depression (LTD) for higher frequency test inputs. This paradoxical behavior is traced to dual computational properties of phasic and tonic coding signal components. A parallel distributed match-reset-search process also helps stabilize memory. Without the match-reset-search system, dART becomes a type of distributed competitive learning network.

The value of prior knowledge in machine learning of complex network systems.

PubMed

Ferranti, Dana; Krane, David; Craft, David

2017-11-15

Our overall goal is to develop machine-learning approaches based on genomics and other relevant accessible information for use in predicting how a patient will respond to a given proposed drug or treatment. Given the complexity of this problem, we begin by developing, testing and analyzing learning methods using data from simulated systems, which allows us access to a known ground truth. We examine the benefits of using prior system knowledge and investigate how learning accuracy depends on various system parameters as well as the amount of training data available. The simulations are based on Boolean networks-directed graphs with 0/1 node states and logical node update rules-which are the simplest computational systems that can mimic the dynamic behavior of cellular systems. Boolean networks can be generated and simulated at scale, have complex yet cyclical dynamics and as such provide a useful framework for developing machine-learning algorithms for modular and hierarchical networks such as biological systems in general and cancer in particular. We demonstrate that utilizing prior knowledge (in the form of network connectivity information), without detailed state equations, greatly increases the power of machine-learning algorithms to predict network steady-state node values ('phenotypes') and perturbation responses ('drug effects'). Links to codes and datasets here: https://gray.mgh.harvard.edu/people-directory/71-david-craft-phd. dcraft@broadinstitute.org. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

A Semiquantitative Framework for Gene Regulatory Networks: Increasing the Time and Quantitative Resolution of Boolean Networks

PubMed Central

Kerkhofs, Johan; Geris, Liesbet

2015-01-01

Boolean models have been instrumental in predicting general features of gene networks and more recently also as explorative tools in specific biological applications. In this study we introduce a basic quantitative and a limited time resolution to a discrete (Boolean) framework. Quantitative resolution is improved through the employ of normalized variables in unison with an additive approach. Increased time resolution stems from the introduction of two distinct priority classes. Through the implementation of a previously published chondrocyte network and T helper cell network, we show that this addition of quantitative and time resolution broadens the scope of biological behaviour that can be captured by the models. Specifically, the quantitative resolution readily allows models to discern qualitative differences in dosage response to growth factors. The limited time resolution, in turn, can influence the reachability of attractors, delineating the likely long term system behaviour. Importantly, the information required for implementation of these features, such as the nature of an interaction, is typically obtainable from the literature. Nonetheless, a trade-off is always present between additional computational cost of this approach and the likelihood of extending the model’s scope. Indeed, in some cases the inclusion of these features does not yield additional insight. This framework, incorporating increased and readily available time and semi-quantitative resolution, can help in substantiating the litmus test of dynamics for gene networks, firstly by excluding unlikely dynamics and secondly by refining falsifiable predictions on qualitative behaviour. PMID:26067297

Modeling socio-cultural processes in network-centric environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Eunice E.; Santos, Eugene, Jr.; Korah, John; George, Riya; Gu, Qi; Kim, Keumjoo; Li, Deqing; Russell, Jacob; Subramanian, Suresh

2012-05-01

The major focus in the field of modeling & simulation for network centric environments has been on the physical layer while making simplifications for the human-in-the-loop. However, the human element has a big impact on the capabilities of network centric systems. Taking into account the socio-behavioral aspects of processes such as team building, group decision-making, etc. are critical to realistically modeling and analyzing system performance. Modeling socio-cultural processes is a challenge because of the complexity of the networks, dynamism in the physical and social layers, feedback loops and uncertainty in the modeling data. We propose an overarching framework to represent, model and analyze various socio-cultural processes within network centric environments. The key innovation in our methodology is to simultaneously model the dynamism in both the physical and social layers while providing functional mappings between them. We represent socio-cultural information such as friendships, professional relationships and temperament by leveraging the Culturally Infused Social Network (CISN) framework. The notion of intent is used to relate the underlying socio-cultural factors to observed behavior. We will model intent using Bayesian Knowledge Bases (BKBs), a probabilistic reasoning network, which can represent incomplete and uncertain socio-cultural information. We will leverage previous work on a network performance modeling framework called Network-Centric Operations Performance and Prediction (N-COPP) to incorporate dynamism in various aspects of the physical layer such as node mobility, transmission parameters, etc. We validate our framework by simulating a suitable scenario, incorporating relevant factors and providing analyses of the results.

Hybrid regulatory models: a statistically tractable approach to model regulatory network dynamics.

PubMed

Ocone, Andrea; Millar, Andrew J; Sanguinetti, Guido

2013-04-01

Computational modelling of the dynamics of gene regulatory networks is a central task of systems biology. For networks of small/medium scale, the dominant paradigm is represented by systems of coupled non-linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs). ODEs afford great mechanistic detail and flexibility, but calibrating these models to data is often an extremely difficult statistical problem. Here, we develop a general statistical inference framework for stochastic transcription-translation networks. We use a coarse-grained approach, which represents the system as a network of stochastic (binary) promoter and (continuous) protein variables. We derive an exact inference algorithm and an efficient variational approximation that allows scalable inference and learning of the model parameters. We demonstrate the power of the approach on two biological case studies, showing that the method allows a high degree of flexibility and is capable of testable novel biological predictions. http://homepages.inf.ed.ac.uk/gsanguin/software.html. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

A rapid learning and dynamic stepwise updating algorithm for flat neural networks and the application to time-series prediction.

PubMed

Chen, C P; Wan, J Z

1999-01-01

A fast learning algorithm is proposed to find an optimal weights of the flat neural networks (especially, the functional-link network). Although the flat networks are used for nonlinear function approximation, they can be formulated as linear systems. Thus, the weights of the networks can be solved easily using a linear least-square method. This formulation makes it easier to update the weights instantly for both a new added pattern and a new added enhancement node. A dynamic stepwise updating algorithm is proposed to update the weights of the system on-the-fly. The model is tested on several time-series data including an infrared laser data set, a chaotic time-series, a monthly flour price data set, and a nonlinear system identification problem. The simulation results are compared to existing models in which more complex architectures and more costly training are needed. The results indicate that the proposed model is very attractive to real-time processes.

Accounting for heterogeneity of nutrient dynamics in riverscapes through spatially distributed models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wollheim, W. M.; Stewart, R. J.

2011-12-01

Numerous types of heterogeneity exist within river systems, leading to hotspots of nutrient sources, sinks, and impacts embedded within an underlying gradient defined by river size. This heterogeneity influences the downstream propagation of anthropogenic impacts across flow conditions. We applied a river network model to explore how nitrogen saturation at river network scales is influenced by the abundance and distribution of potential nutrient processing hotspots (lakes, beaver ponds, tributary junctions, hyporheic zones) under different flow conditions. We determined that under low flow conditions, whole network nutrient removal is relatively insensitive to the number of hotspots because the underlying river network structure has sufficient nutrient processing capacity. However, hotspots become more important at higher flows and greatly influence the spatial distribution of removal within the network at all flows, suggesting that identification of heterogeneity is critical to develop predictive understanding of nutrient removal processes under changing loading and climate conditions. New temporally intensive data from in situ sensors can potentially help to better understand and constrain these dynamics.

Higher-order kinetic expansion of quantum dissipative dynamics: mapping quantum networks to kinetic networks.

PubMed

Wu, Jianlan; Cao, Jianshu

2013-07-28

We apply a new formalism to derive the higher-order quantum kinetic expansion (QKE) for studying dissipative dynamics in a general quantum network coupled with an arbitrary thermal bath. The dynamics of system population is described by a time-convoluted kinetic equation, where the time-nonlocal rate kernel is systematically expanded of the order of off-diagonal elements of the system Hamiltonian. In the second order, the rate kernel recovers the expression of the noninteracting-blip approximation method. The higher-order corrections in the rate kernel account for the effects of the multi-site quantum coherence and the bath relaxation. In a quantum harmonic bath, the rate kernels of different orders are analytically derived. As demonstrated by four examples, the higher-order QKE can reliably predict quantum dissipative dynamics, comparing well with the hierarchic equation approach. More importantly, the higher-order rate kernels can distinguish and quantify distinct nontrivial quantum coherent effects, such as long-range energy transfer from quantum tunneling and quantum interference arising from the phase accumulation of interactions.

Dynamics of the middle atmosphere as observed by the ARISE project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, E.

2015-12-01

It has been strongly demonstrated that variations in the circulation of the middle atmosphere influence weather and climate all the way to the Earth's surface. A key part of this coupling occurs through the propagation and breaking of planetary and gravity waves. However, limited observations prevent to faithfully reproduce the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in numerical weather prediction and climate models. The main challenge of the ARISE (Atmospheric dynamics InfraStructure in Europe) project is to combine existing national and international observation networks including: the International infrasound monitoring system developed for the CTBT (Comprehensive nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty) verification, the NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Changes) lidar network, European observation infrastructures at mid latitudes (OHP observatory), tropics (Maïdo observatory), high latitudes (ALOMAR and EISCAT), infrasound stations which form a dense European network and satellites. The ARISE network is unique by its coverage (polar to equatorial regions in the European longitude sector), its altitude range (from troposphere to mesosphere and ionosphere) and the involved scales both in time (from seconds to tens of years) and space (from tens of meters to thousands of kilometers). Advanced data products are produced with the scope to assimilate data in the Weather Prediction models to improve future forecasts over weeks and seasonal time scales. ARISE observations are especially relevant for the monitoring of extreme events such as thunderstorms, volcanoes, meteors and at larger scales, deep convection and stratospheric warming events for physical processes description and study of long term evolution with climate change. Among the applications, ARISE fosters integration of innovative methods for remote detection of non-instrumented volcanoes including distant eruption characterization to provide notifications with reliable confidence indices to the civil aviation.

A Computational Model Predicting Disruption of Blood Vessel Development

EPA Science Inventory

Vascular development is a complex process regulated by dynamic biological networks that vary in topology and state across different tissues and developmental stages. Signals regulating de novo blood vessel formation (vasculogenesis) and remodeling (angiogenesis) come from a varie...

Network congestion control algorithm based on Actor-Critic reinforcement learning model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Tao; Gong, Lina; Zhang, Wei; Li, Xuhong; Wang, Xia; Pan, Wenwen

2018-04-01

Aiming at the network congestion control problem, a congestion control algorithm based on Actor-Critic reinforcement learning model is designed. Through the genetic algorithm in the congestion control strategy, the network congestion problems can be better found and prevented. According to Actor-Critic reinforcement learning, the simulation experiment of network congestion control algorithm is designed. The simulation experiments verify that the AQM controller can predict the dynamic characteristics of the network system. Moreover, the learning strategy is adopted to optimize the network performance, and the dropping probability of packets is adaptively adjusted so as to improve the network performance and avoid congestion. Based on the above finding, it is concluded that the network congestion control algorithm based on Actor-Critic reinforcement learning model can effectively avoid the occurrence of TCP network congestion.

Incorporating Scale-Dependent Fracture Stiffness for Improved Reservoir Performance Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crawford, B. R.; Tsenn, M. C.; Homburg, J. M.; Stehle, R. C.; Freysteinson, J. A.; Reese, W. C.

2017-12-01

We present a novel technique for predicting dynamic fracture network response to production-driven changes in effective stress, with the potential for optimizing depletion planning and improving recovery prediction in stress-sensitive naturally fractured reservoirs. A key component of the method involves laboratory geomechanics testing of single fractures in order to develop a unique scaling relationship between fracture normal stiffness and initial mechanical aperture. Details of the workflow are as follows: tensile, opening mode fractures are created in a variety of low matrix permeability rocks with initial, unstressed apertures in the micrometer to millimeter range, as determined from image analyses of X-ray CT scans; subsequent hydrostatic compression of these fractured samples with synchronous radial strain and flow measurement indicates that both mechanical and hydraulic aperture reduction varies linearly with the natural logarithm of effective normal stress; these stress-sensitive single-fracture laboratory observations are then upscaled to networks with fracture populations displaying frequency-length and length-aperture scaling laws commonly exhibited by natural fracture arrays; functional relationships between reservoir pressure reduction and fracture network porosity, compressibility and directional permeabilities as generated by such discrete fracture network modeling are then exported to the reservoir simulator for improved naturally fractured reservoir performance prediction.

Ensemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting.

PubMed

Men, Zhongxian; Yee, Eugene; Lien, Fue-Sang; Yang, Zhiling; Liu, Yongqian

2014-01-01

Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs in order to provide improved forecasts for wind speed and power, along with the associated uncertainties in these forecasts. More specifically, the ensemble ANN is used to quantify the uncertainties arising from the network weight initialization and from the unknown structure of the ANN. All members forming the ensemble of neural networks were trained using an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the proposed methodology are validated using wind speed and wind power data obtained from an operational wind farm located in Northern China. The assessment demonstrates that this methodology for wind speed and power forecasting generally provides an improvement in predictive skills when compared to the practice of using an "optimal" weight vector from a single ANN while providing additional information in the form of prediction uncertainty bounds.

Ensemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting

PubMed Central

Lien, Fue-Sang; Yang, Zhiling; Liu, Yongqian

2014-01-01

Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs in order to provide improved forecasts for wind speed and power, along with the associated uncertainties in these forecasts. More specifically, the ensemble ANN is used to quantify the uncertainties arising from the network weight initialization and from the unknown structure of the ANN. All members forming the ensemble of neural networks were trained using an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the proposed methodology are validated using wind speed and wind power data obtained from an operational wind farm located in Northern China. The assessment demonstrates that this methodology for wind speed and power forecasting generally provides an improvement in predictive skills when compared to the practice of using an “optimal” weight vector from a single ANN while providing additional information in the form of prediction uncertainty bounds. PMID:27382627

Molecular model for the diffusion of associating telechelic polymer networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, Jorge; Dursch, Thomas; Olsen, Bradley

Understanding the mechanisms of motion and stress relaxation of associating polymers at the molecular level is critical for advanced technological applications such as enhanced oil-recovery, self-healing materials or drug delivery. In associating polymers, the strength and rates of association/dissociation of the reversible physical crosslinks govern the dynamics of the network and therefore all the macroscopic properties, like self-diffusion and rheology. Recently, by means of forced Rayleigh scattering experiments, we have proved that associating polymers of different architectures show super-diffusive behavior when the free motion of single molecular species is slowed down by association/dissociation kinetics. Here we discuss a new molecular picture for unentangled associating telechelic polymers that considers concentration, molecular weight, number of arms of the molecules and equilibrium and rate constants of association/dissociation. The model predicts super-diffusive behavior under the right combination of values of the parameters. We discuss some of the predictions of the model using scaling arguments, show detailed results from Brownian dynamics simulations of the FRS experiments, and attempt to compare the predictions of the model to experimental data.

Nuclear charge radii: density functional theory meets Bayesian neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utama, R.; Chen, Wei-Chia; Piekarewicz, J.

2016-11-01

The distribution of electric charge in atomic nuclei is fundamental to our understanding of the complex nuclear dynamics and a quintessential observable to validate nuclear structure models. The aim of this study is to explore a novel approach that combines sophisticated models of nuclear structure with Bayesian neural networks (BNN) to generate predictions for the charge radii of thousands of nuclei throughout the nuclear chart. A class of relativistic energy density functionals is used to provide robust predictions for nuclear charge radii. In turn, these predictions are refined through Bayesian learning for a neural network that is trained using residuals between theoretical predictions and the experimental data. Although predictions obtained with density functional theory provide a fairly good description of experiment, our results show significant improvement (better than 40%) after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results for nuclear charge radii are supplemented with theoretical error bars. We have successfully demonstrated the ability of the BNN approach to significantly increase the accuracy of nuclear models in the predictions of nuclear charge radii. However, as many before us, we failed to uncover the underlying physics behind the intriguing behavior of charge radii along the calcium isotopic chain.

Modeling and Analysis of Structural Dynamics for a One-Tenth Scale Model NGST Sunshield

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, John; Lienard, Sebastien; Brodeur, Steve (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

New modeling and analysis techniques have been developed for predicting the dynamic behavior of the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) sunshield. The sunshield consists of multiple layers of pretensioned, thin-film membranes supported by deployable booms. Modeling the structural dynamic behavior of the sunshield is a challenging aspect of the problem due to the effects of membrane wrinkling. A finite element model of the sunshield was developed using an approximate engineering approach, the cable network method, to account for membrane wrinkling effects. Ground testing of a one-tenth scale model of the NGST sunshield were carried out to provide data for validating the analytical model. A series of analyses were performed to predict the behavior of the sunshield under the ground test conditions. Modal analyses were performed to predict the frequencies and mode shapes of the test article and transient response analyses were completed to simulate impulse excitation tests. Comparison was made between analytical predictions and test measurements for the dynamic behavior of the sunshield. In general, the results show good agreement with the analytical model correctly predicting the approximate frequency and mode shapes for the significant structural modes.

Recruitment dynamics in adaptive social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shkarayev, Maxim S.; Schwartz, Ira B.; Shaw, Leah B.

2013-06-01

We model recruitment in adaptive social networks in the presence of birth and death processes. Recruitment is characterized by nodes changing their status to that of the recruiting class as a result of contact with recruiting nodes. Only a susceptible subset of nodes can be recruited. The recruiting individuals may adapt their connections in order to improve recruitment capabilities, thus changing the network structure adaptively. We derive a mean-field theory to predict the dependence of the growth threshold of the recruiting class on the adaptation parameter. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of adaptation on the recruitment level, as well as on network topology. The theoretical predictions are compared with direct simulations of the full system. We identify two parameter regimes with qualitatively different bifurcation diagrams depending on whether nodes become susceptible frequently (multiple times in their lifetime) or rarely (much less than once per lifetime).

Recruitment dynamics in adaptive social networks.

PubMed

Shkarayev, Maxim S; Schwartz, Ira B; Shaw, Leah B

2013-01-01

We model recruitment in adaptive social networks in the presence of birth and death processes. Recruitment is characterized by nodes changing their status to that of the recruiting class as a result of contact with recruiting nodes. Only a susceptible subset of nodes can be recruited. The recruiting individuals may adapt their connections in order to improve recruitment capabilities, thus changing the network structure adaptively. We derive a mean field theory to predict the dependence of the growth threshold of the recruiting class on the adaptation parameter. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of adaptation on the recruitment level, as well as on network topology. The theoretical predictions are compared with direct simulations of the full system. We identify two parameter regimes with qualitatively different bifurcation diagrams depending on whether nodes become susceptible frequently (multiple times in their lifetime) or rarely (much less than once per lifetime).

Quantification of Interactions between Dynamic Cellular Network Functionalities by Cascaded Layering

PubMed Central

Prescott, Thomas P.; Lang, Moritz; Papachristodoulou, Antonis

2015-01-01

Large, naturally evolved biomolecular networks typically fulfil multiple functions. When modelling or redesigning such systems, functional subsystems are often analysed independently first, before subsequent integration into larger-scale computational models. In the design and analysis process, it is therefore important to quantitatively analyse and predict the dynamics of the interactions between integrated subsystems; in particular, how the incremental effect of integrating a subsystem into a network depends on the existing dynamics of that network. In this paper we present a framework for simulating the contribution of any given functional subsystem when integrated together with one or more other subsystems. This is achieved through a cascaded layering of a network into functional subsystems, where each layer is defined by an appropriate subset of the reactions. We exploit symmetries in our formulation to exhaustively quantify each subsystem’s incremental effects with minimal computational effort. When combining subsystems, their isolated behaviour may be amplified, attenuated, or be subject to more complicated effects. We propose the concept of mutual dynamics to quantify such nonlinear phenomena, thereby defining the incompatibility and cooperativity between all pairs of subsystems when integrated into any larger network. We exemplify our theoretical framework by analysing diverse behaviours in three dynamic models of signalling and metabolic pathways: the effect of crosstalk mechanisms on the dynamics of parallel signal transduction pathways; reciprocal side-effects between several integral feedback mechanisms and the subsystems they stabilise; and consequences of nonlinear interactions between elementary flux modes in glycolysis for metabolic engineering strategies. Our analysis shows that it is not sufficient to just specify subsystems and analyse their pairwise interactions; the environment in which the interaction takes place must also be explicitly defined. Our framework provides a natural representation of nonlinear interaction phenomena, and will therefore be an important tool for modelling large-scale evolved or synthetic biomolecular networks. PMID:25933116

The ‘prediction imperative’ as the basis for self-awareness

PubMed Central

Llinás, Rodolfo R.; Roy, Sisir

2009-01-01

Here, we propose that global brain function is geared towards the implementation of intelligent motricity. Motricity is the only possible external manifestation of nervous system function (other than endocrine and exocrine secretion and the control of vascular tone). The intelligence component of motricity requires, for its successful wheeling, a prediction imperative to approximate the consequences of the impending motion. We address how such predictive function may originate from the dynamic properties of neuronal networks. PMID:19528011

Using the Networked Fire Chief for ego-depletion research: measuring dynamic decision-making effort and performance.

PubMed

Barber, Larissa K; Smit, Brandon W

2014-01-01

This study replicated ego-depletion predictions from the self-control literature in a computer simulation task that requires ongoing decision-making in relation to constantly changing environmental information: the Network Fire Chief (NFC). Ego-depletion led to decreased self-regulatory effort, but not performance, on the NFC task. These effects were also buffered by task enjoyment so that individuals who enjoyed the dynamic decision-making task did not experience ego-depletion effects. These findings confirm that past ego-depletion effects on decision-making are not limited to static or isolated decision-making tasks and can be extended to dynamic, naturalistic decision-making processes more common to naturalistic settings. Furthermore, the NFC simulation provides a methodological mechanism for independently measuring effort and performance when studying ego-depletion.

Three-dimensional multiscale modeling of dendritic spacing selection during Al-Si directional solidification

DOE PAGES

Tourret, Damien; Clarke, Amy J.; Imhoff, Seth D.; ...

2015-05-27

We present a three-dimensional extension of the multiscale dendritic needle network (DNN) model. This approach enables quantitative simulations of the unsteady dynamics of complex hierarchical networks in spatially extended dendritic arrays. We apply the model to directional solidification of Al-9.8 wt.%Si alloy and directly compare the model predictions with measurements from experiments with in situ x-ray imaging. The focus is on the dynamical selection of primary spacings over a range of growth velocities, and the influence of sample geometry on the selection of spacings. Simulation results show good agreement with experiments. The computationally efficient DNN model opens new avenues formore » investigating the dynamics of large dendritic arrays at scales relevant to solidification experiments and processes.« less

The Virtual Mouse Brain: A Computational Neuroinformatics Platform to Study Whole Mouse Brain Dynamics.

PubMed

Melozzi, Francesca; Woodman, Marmaduke M; Jirsa, Viktor K; Bernard, Christophe

2017-01-01

Connectome-based modeling of large-scale brain network dynamics enables causal in silico interrogation of the brain's structure-function relationship, necessitating the close integration of diverse neuroinformatics fields. Here we extend the open-source simulation software The Virtual Brain (TVB) to whole mouse brain network modeling based on individual diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI)-based or tracer-based detailed mouse connectomes. We provide practical examples on how to use The Virtual Mouse Brain (TVMB) to simulate brain activity, such as seizure propagation and the switching behavior of the resting state dynamics in health and disease. TVMB enables theoretically driven experimental planning and ways to test predictions in the numerous strains of mice available to study brain function in normal and pathological conditions.

Epidemic dynamics on a risk-based evolving social network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antwi, Shadrack; Shaw, Leah

2013-03-01

Social network models have been used to study how behavior affects the dynamics of an infection in a population. Motivated by HIV, we consider how a trade-off between benefits and risks of sexual connections determine network structure and disease prevalence. We define a stochastic network model with formation and breaking of links as changes in sexual contacts. Each node has an intrinsic benefit its neighbors derive from connecting to it. Nodes' infection status is not apparent to others, but nodes with more connections (higher degree) are assumed more likely to be infected. The probability to form and break links is determined by a payoff computed from the benefit and degree-dependent risk. The disease is represented by a SI (susceptible-infected) model. We study network and epidemic evolution via Monte Carlo simulation and analytically predict the behavior with a heterogeneous mean field approach. The dependence of network connectivity and infection threshold on parameters is determined, and steady state degree distribution and epidemic levels are obtained. We also study a situation where system-wide infection levels alter perception of risk and cause nodes to adjust their behavior. This is a case of an adaptive network, where node status feeds back to change network geometry.

The dynamics of discrete-time computation, with application to recurrent neural networks and finite state machine extraction.

PubMed

Casey, M

1996-08-15

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) can learn to perform finite state computations. It is shown that an RNN performing a finite state computation must organize its state space to mimic the states in the minimal deterministic finite state machine that can perform that computation, and a precise description of the attractor structure of such systems is given. This knowledge effectively predicts activation space dynamics, which allows one to understand RNN computation dynamics in spite of complexity in activation dynamics. This theory provides a theoretical framework for understanding finite state machine (FSM) extraction techniques and can be used to improve training methods for RNNs performing FSM computations. This provides an example of a successful approach to understanding a general class of complex systems that has not been explicitly designed, e.g., systems that have evolved or learned their internal structure.

A framework for analyzing the relationship between gene expression and morphological, topological, and dynamical patterns in neuronal networks.

PubMed

de Arruda, Henrique Ferraz; Comin, Cesar Henrique; Miazaki, Mauro; Viana, Matheus Palhares; Costa, Luciano da Fontoura

2015-04-30

A key point in developmental biology is to understand how gene expression influences the morphological and dynamical patterns that are observed in living beings. In this work we propose a methodology capable of addressing this problem that is based on estimating the mutual information and Pearson correlation between the intensity of gene expression and measurements of several morphological properties of the cells. A similar approach is applied in order to identify effects of gene expression over the system dynamics. Neuronal networks were artificially grown over a lattice by considering a reference model used to generate artificial neurons. The input parameters of the artificial neurons were determined according to two distinct patterns of gene expression and the dynamical response was assessed by considering the integrate-and-fire model. As far as single gene dependence is concerned, we found that the interaction between the gene expression and the network topology, as well as between the former and the dynamics response, is strongly affected by the gene expression pattern. In addition, we observed a high correlation between the gene expression and some topological measurements of the neuronal network for particular patterns of gene expression. To our best understanding, there are no similar analyses to compare with. A proper understanding of gene expression influence requires jointly studying the morphology, topology, and dynamics of neurons. The proposed framework represents a first step towards predicting gene expression patterns from morphology and connectivity. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Network community-based model reduction for vortical flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopalakrishnan Meena, Muralikrishnan; Nair, Aditya G.; Taira, Kunihiko

2018-06-01

A network community-based reduced-order model is developed to capture key interactions among coherent structures in high-dimensional unsteady vortical flows. The present approach is data-inspired and founded on network-theoretic techniques to identify important vortical communities that are comprised of vortical elements that share similar dynamical behavior. The overall interaction-based physics of the high-dimensional flow field is distilled into the vortical community centroids, considerably reducing the system dimension. Taking advantage of these vortical interactions, the proposed methodology is applied to formulate reduced-order models for the inter-community dynamics of vortical flows, and predict lift and drag forces on bodies in wake flows. We demonstrate the capabilities of these models by accurately capturing the macroscopic dynamics of a collection of discrete point vortices, and the complex unsteady aerodynamic forces on a circular cylinder and an airfoil with a Gurney flap. The present formulation is found to be robust against simulated experimental noise and turbulence due to its integrating nature of the system reduction.

To trade or not to trade: Link prediction in the virtual water network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuninetti, Marta; Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2017-12-01

In the international trade network, links express the (temporary) presence of a commercial exchange of goods between any two countries. Given the dynamical behaviour of the trade network, where links are created and dismissed every year, predicting the link activation/deactivation is an open research question. Through the international trade network of agricultural goods, water resources are 'virtually' transferred from the country of production to the country of consumption. We propose a novel methodology for link prediction applied to the network of virtual water trade. Starting from the assumption of having links between any two countries, we estimate the associated virtual water flows by means of a gravity-law model using country and link characteristics as drivers. We consider the links with estimated flows higher than 1000 m3/year as active links, while the others as non-active links. Flows traded along estimated active links are then re-estimated using a similar but differently-calibrated gravity-law model. We were able to correctly model 84% of the existing links and 93% of the non-existing links in year 2011. It is worth to note that the predicted active links carry 99% of the global virtual water flow; hence, missed links are mainly those where a minimum volume of virtual water is exchanged. Results indicate that, over the period from 1986 to 2011, population, geographical distances between countries, and agricultural efficiency (through fertilizers use) are the major factors driving the link activation and deactivation. As opposed to other (network-based) models for link prediction, the proposed method is able to reconstruct the network architecture without any prior knowledge of the network topology, using only the nodes and links attributes; it thus represents a general method that can be applied to other networks such as food or value trade networks.

DEFINING THE PLAYERS IN HIGHER-ORDER NETWORKS: PREDICTIVE MODELING FOR REVERSE ENGINEERING FUNCTIONAL INFLUENCE NETWORKS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDermott, Jason E.; Costa, Michelle N.; Stevens, S.L.

A difficult problem that is currently growing rapidly due to the sharp increase in the amount of high-throughput data available for many systems is that of determining useful and informative causative influence networks. These networks can be used to predict behavior given observation of a small number of components, predict behavior at a future time point, or identify components that are critical to the functioning of the system under particular conditions. In these endeavors incorporating observations of systems from a wide variety of viewpoints can be particularly beneficial, but has often been undertaken with the objective of inferring networks thatmore » are generally applicable. The focus of the current work is to integrate both general observations and measurements taken for a particular pathology, that of ischemic stroke, to provide improved ability to produce useful predictions of systems behavior. A number of hybrid approaches have recently been proposed for network generation in which the Gene Ontology is used to filter or enrich network links inferred from gene expression data through reverse engineering methods. These approaches have been shown to improve the biological plausibility of the inferred relationships determined, but still treat knowledge-based and machine-learning inferences as incommensurable inputs. In this paper, we explore how further improvements may be achieved through a full integration of network inference insights achieved through application of the Gene Ontology and reverse engineering methods with specific reference to the construction of dynamic models of transcriptional regulatory networks. We show that integrating two approaches to network construction, one based on reverse-engineering from conditional transcriptional data, one based on reverse-engineering from in situ hybridization data, and another based on functional associations derived from Gene Ontology, using probabilities can improve results of clustering as evaluated by a predictive model of transcriptional expression levels.« less

Monitoring Bloom Dynamics of a Common Coastal Bioluminescent Ctenophore

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-30

photodiodes. IMPACT/APPLICATIONS More frequent and more rapidly developing jellyfish blooms, especially Mnemiopsis leidyi as well as Harmful Algal...To meet the need for a bioluminescent jellyfish monitoring and forecasting system, predictive models will depend upon dense networks of sensor

The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics.

PubMed

Colizza, Vittoria; Barrat, Alain; Barthélemy, Marc; Vespignani, Alessandro

2006-02-14

The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large-scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior of the diffusion processes occurring on networks, determining the ensuing statistical properties of their evolution pattern and dynamics. In this article, we present a stochastic computational framework for the forecast of global epidemics that considers the complete worldwide air travel infrastructure complemented with census population data. We address two basic issues in global epidemic modeling: (i) we study the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global diffusion pattern of emerging diseases; and (ii) we evaluate the reliability of forecasts and outbreak scenarios with respect to the intrinsic stochasticity of disease transmission and traffic flows. To address these issues we define a set of quantitative measures able to characterize the level of heterogeneity and predictability of the epidemic pattern. These measures may be used for the analysis of containment policies and epidemic risk assessment.

System identification of an unmanned quadcopter system using MRAN neural

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pairan, M. F.; Shamsudin, S. S.

2017-12-01

This project presents the performance analysis of the radial basis function neural network (RBF) trained with Minimal Resource Allocating Network (MRAN) algorithm for real-time identification of quadcopter. MRAN’s performance is compared with the RBF with Constant Trace algorithm for 2500 input-output pair data sampling. MRAN utilizes adding and pruning hidden neuron strategy to obtain optimum RBF structure, increase prediction accuracy and reduce training time. The results indicate that MRAN algorithm produces fast training time and more accurate prediction compared with standard RBF. The model proposed in this paper is capable of identifying and modelling a nonlinear representation of the quadcopter flight dynamics.

Encoding Time in Feedforward Trajectories of a Recurrent Neural Network Model.

PubMed

Hardy, N F; Buonomano, Dean V

2018-02-01

Brain activity evolves through time, creating trajectories of activity that underlie sensorimotor processing, behavior, and learning and memory. Therefore, understanding the temporal nature of neural dynamics is essential to understanding brain function and behavior. In vivo studies have demonstrated that sequential transient activation of neurons can encode time. However, it remains unclear whether these patterns emerge from feedforward network architectures or from recurrent networks and, furthermore, what role network structure plays in timing. We address these issues using a recurrent neural network (RNN) model with distinct populations of excitatory and inhibitory units. Consistent with experimental data, a single RNN could autonomously produce multiple functionally feedforward trajectories, thus potentially encoding multiple timed motor patterns lasting up to several seconds. Importantly, the model accounted for Weber's law, a hallmark of timing behavior. Analysis of network connectivity revealed that efficiency-a measure of network interconnectedness-decreased as the number of stored trajectories increased. Additionally, the balance of excitation (E) and inhibition (I) shifted toward excitation during each unit's activation time, generating the prediction that observed sequential activity relies on dynamic control of the E/I balance. Our results establish for the first time that the same RNN can generate multiple functionally feedforward patterns of activity as a result of dynamic shifts in the E/I balance imposed by the connectome of the RNN. We conclude that recurrent network architectures account for sequential neural activity, as well as for a fundamental signature of timing behavior: Weber's law.

Dynamics on networks: the role of local dynamics and global networks on the emergence of hypersynchronous neural activity.

PubMed

Schmidt, Helmut; Petkov, George; Richardson, Mark P; Terry, John R

2014-11-01

Graph theory has evolved into a useful tool for studying complex brain networks inferred from a variety of measures of neural activity, including fMRI, DTI, MEG and EEG. In the study of neurological disorders, recent work has discovered differences in the structure of graphs inferred from patient and control cohorts. However, most of these studies pursue a purely observational approach; identifying correlations between properties of graphs and the cohort which they describe, without consideration of the underlying mechanisms. To move beyond this necessitates the development of computational modeling approaches to appropriately interpret network interactions and the alterations in brain dynamics they permit, which in the field of complexity sciences is known as dynamics on networks. In this study we describe the development and application of this framework using modular networks of Kuramoto oscillators. We use this framework to understand functional networks inferred from resting state EEG recordings of a cohort of 35 adults with heterogeneous idiopathic generalized epilepsies and 40 healthy adult controls. Taking emergent synchrony across the global network as a proxy for seizures, our study finds that the critical strength of coupling required to synchronize the global network is significantly decreased for the epilepsy cohort for functional networks inferred from both theta (3-6 Hz) and low-alpha (6-9 Hz) bands. We further identify left frontal regions as a potential driver of seizure activity within these networks. We also explore the ability of our method to identify individuals with epilepsy, observing up to 80% predictive power through use of receiver operating characteristic analysis. Collectively these findings demonstrate that a computer model based analysis of routine clinical EEG provides significant additional information beyond standard clinical interpretation, which should ultimately enable a more appropriate mechanistic stratification of people with epilepsy leading to improved diagnostics and therapeutics.

Brain State Is a Major Factor in Preseizure Hippocampal Network Activity and Influences Success of Seizure Intervention

PubMed Central

Ewell, Laura A.; Liang, Liang; Armstrong, Caren; Soltész, Ivan; Leutgeb, Stefan

2015-01-01

Neural dynamics preceding seizures are of interest because they may shed light on mechanisms of seizure generation and could be predictive. In healthy animals, hippocampal network activity is shaped by behavioral brain state and, in epilepsy, seizures selectively emerge during specific brain states. To determine the degree to which changes in network dynamics before seizure are pathological or reflect ongoing fluctuations in brain state, dorsal hippocampal neurons were recorded during spontaneous seizures in a rat model of temporal lobe epilepsy. Seizures emerged from all brain states, but with a greater likelihood after REM sleep, potentially due to an observed increase in baseline excitability during periods of REM compared with other brains states also characterized by sustained theta oscillations. When comparing the firing patterns of the same neurons across brain states associated with and without seizures, activity dynamics before seizures followed patterns typical of the ongoing brain state, or brain state transitions, and did not differ until the onset of the electrographic seizure. Next, we tested whether disparate activity patterns during distinct brain states would influence the effectiveness of optogenetic curtailment of hippocampal seizures in a mouse model of temporal lobe epilepsy. Optogenetic curtailment was significantly more effective for seizures preceded by non-theta states compared with seizures that emerged from theta states. Our results indicate that consideration of behavioral brain state preceding a seizure is important for the appropriate interpretation of network dynamics leading up to a seizure and for designing effective seizure intervention. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Hippocampal single-unit activity is strongly shaped by behavioral brain state, yet this relationship has been largely ignored when studying activity dynamics before spontaneous seizures in medial temporal lobe epilepsy. In light of the increased attention on using single-unit activity for the prediction of seizure onset and closed-loop seizure intervention, we show a need for monitoring brain state to interpret correctly whether changes in neural activity before seizure onset is pathological or normal. Moreover, we also find that the brain state preceding a seizure determines the success of therapeutic interventions to curtail seizure duration. Together, these findings suggest that seizure prediction and intervention will be more successful if tailored for the specific brain states from which seizures emerge. PMID:26609157

Global dynamic optimization approach to predict activation in metabolic pathways.

PubMed

de Hijas-Liste, Gundián M; Klipp, Edda; Balsa-Canto, Eva; Banga, Julio R

2014-01-06

During the last decade, a number of authors have shown that the genetic regulation of metabolic networks may follow optimality principles. Optimal control theory has been successfully used to compute optimal enzyme profiles considering simple metabolic pathways. However, applying this optimal control framework to more general networks (e.g. branched networks, or networks incorporating enzyme production dynamics) yields problems that are analytically intractable and/or numerically very challenging. Further, these previous studies have only considered a single-objective framework. In this work we consider a more general multi-objective formulation and we present solutions based on recent developments in global dynamic optimization techniques. We illustrate the performance and capabilities of these techniques considering two sets of problems. First, we consider a set of single-objective examples of increasing complexity taken from the recent literature. We analyze the multimodal character of the associated non linear optimization problems, and we also evaluate different global optimization approaches in terms of numerical robustness, efficiency and scalability. Second, we consider generalized multi-objective formulations for several examples, and we show how this framework results in more biologically meaningful results. The proposed strategy was used to solve a set of single-objective case studies related to unbranched and branched metabolic networks of different levels of complexity. All problems were successfully solved in reasonable computation times with our global dynamic optimization approach, reaching solutions which were comparable or better than those reported in previous literature. Further, we considered, for the first time, multi-objective formulations, illustrating how activation in metabolic pathways can be explained in terms of the best trade-offs between conflicting objectives. This new methodology can be applied to metabolic networks with arbitrary topologies, non-linear dynamics and constraints.

Perspective: Maximum caliber is a general variational principle for dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixit, Purushottam D.; Wagoner, Jason; Weistuch, Corey; Pressé, Steve; Ghosh, Kingshuk; Dill, Ken A.

2018-01-01

We review here Maximum Caliber (Max Cal), a general variational principle for inferring distributions of paths in dynamical processes and networks. Max Cal is to dynamical trajectories what the principle of maximum entropy is to equilibrium states or stationary populations. In Max Cal, you maximize a path entropy over all possible pathways, subject to dynamical constraints, in order to predict relative path weights. Many well-known relationships of non-equilibrium statistical physics—such as the Green-Kubo fluctuation-dissipation relations, Onsager's reciprocal relations, and Prigogine's minimum entropy production—are limited to near-equilibrium processes. Max Cal is more general. While it can readily derive these results under those limits, Max Cal is also applicable far from equilibrium. We give examples of Max Cal as a method of inference about trajectory distributions from limited data, finding reaction coordinates in bio-molecular simulations, and modeling the complex dynamics of non-thermal systems such as gene regulatory networks or the collective firing of neurons. We also survey its basis in principle and some limitations.

Perspective: Maximum caliber is a general variational principle for dynamical systems.

PubMed

Dixit, Purushottam D; Wagoner, Jason; Weistuch, Corey; Pressé, Steve; Ghosh, Kingshuk; Dill, Ken A

2018-01-07

We review here Maximum Caliber (Max Cal), a general variational principle for inferring distributions of paths in dynamical processes and networks. Max Cal is to dynamical trajectories what the principle of maximum entropy is to equilibrium states or stationary populations. In Max Cal, you maximize a path entropy over all possible pathways, subject to dynamical constraints, in order to predict relative path weights. Many well-known relationships of non-equilibrium statistical physics-such as the Green-Kubo fluctuation-dissipation relations, Onsager's reciprocal relations, and Prigogine's minimum entropy production-are limited to near-equilibrium processes. Max Cal is more general. While it can readily derive these results under those limits, Max Cal is also applicable far from equilibrium. We give examples of Max Cal as a method of inference about trajectory distributions from limited data, finding reaction coordinates in bio-molecular simulations, and modeling the complex dynamics of non-thermal systems such as gene regulatory networks or the collective firing of neurons. We also survey its basis in principle and some limitations.

Parkfield, California, liquefaction prediction ( USA).

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holzer, T.L.; Bennett, M.J.; Youd, T.L.; Chen, A.T.F.

1988-01-01

The primary purpose of this short note is to formally record the liquefaction prediction (Holzer et al., 1986) made in connection with this predicted earthquake. In addition, this note serves to alert the seismic engineering community to special instrumentation being installed at the prediction site. The instrumentation will consist of 4 downhole accelerometers at depths ranging from 3-30 m, a surface accelerometer, 7 dynamic piezometers distributed in the sand strata between depths of 5 and 15 m, and a network of bench marks for measuring permanent ground deformation.-from Authors

Normal modes of weak colloidal gels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varga, Zsigmond; Swan, James W.

2018-01-01

The normal modes and relaxation rates of weak colloidal gels are investigated in calculations using different models of the hydrodynamic interactions between suspended particles. The relaxation spectrum is computed for freely draining, Rotne-Prager-Yamakawa, and accelerated Stokesian dynamics approximations of the hydrodynamic mobility in a normal mode analysis of a harmonic network representing several colloidal gels. We find that the density of states and spatial structure of the normal modes are fundamentally altered by long-ranged hydrodynamic coupling among the particles. Short-ranged coupling due to hydrodynamic lubrication affects only the relaxation rates of short-wavelength modes. Hydrodynamic models accounting for long-ranged coupling exhibit a microscopic relaxation rate for each normal mode, λ that scales as l-2, where l is the spatial correlation length of the normal mode. For the freely draining approximation, which neglects long-ranged coupling, the microscopic relaxation rate scales as l-γ, where γ varies between three and two with increasing particle volume fraction. A simple phenomenological model of the internal elastic response to normal mode fluctuations is developed, which shows that long-ranged hydrodynamic interactions play a central role in the viscoelasticity of the gel network. Dynamic simulations of hard spheres that gel in response to short-ranged depletion attractions are used to test the applicability of the density of states predictions. For particle concentrations up to 30% by volume, the power law decay of the relaxation modulus in simulations accounting for long-ranged hydrodynamic interactions agrees with predictions generated by the density of states of the corresponding harmonic networks as well as experimental measurements. For higher volume fractions, excluded volume interactions dominate the stress response, and the prediction from the harmonic network density of states fails. Analogous to the Zimm model in polymer physics, our results indicate that long-ranged hydrodynamic interactions play a crucial role in determining the microscopic dynamics and macroscopic properties of weak colloidal gels.

Theory of Turing Patterns on Time Varying Networks.

PubMed

Petit, Julien; Lauwens, Ben; Fanelli, Duccio; Carletti, Timoteo

2017-10-06

The process of pattern formation for a multispecies model anchored on a time varying network is studied. A nonhomogeneous perturbation superposed to an homogeneous stable fixed point can be amplified following the Turing mechanism of instability, solely instigated by the network dynamics. By properly tuning the frequency of the imposed network evolution, one can make the examined system behave as its averaged counterpart, over a finite time window. This is the key observation to derive a closed analytical prediction for the onset of the instability in the time dependent framework. Continuously and piecewise constant periodic time varying networks are analyzed, setting the framework for the proposed approach. The extension to nonperiodic settings is also discussed.

Chunking dynamics: heteroclinics in mind

PubMed Central

Rabinovich, Mikhail I.; Varona, Pablo; Tristan, Irma; Afraimovich, Valentin S.

2014-01-01

Recent results of imaging technologies and non-linear dynamics make possible to relate the structure and dynamics of functional brain networks to different mental tasks and to build theoretical models for the description and prediction of cognitive activity. Such models are non-linear dynamical descriptions of the interaction of the core components—brain modes—participating in a specific mental function. The dynamical images of different mental processes depend on their temporal features. The dynamics of many cognitive functions are transient. They are often observed as a chain of sequentially changing metastable states. A stable heteroclinic channel (SHC) consisting of a chain of saddles—metastable states—connected by unstable separatrices is a mathematical image for robust transients. In this paper we focus on hierarchical chunking dynamics that can represent several forms of transient cognitive activity. Chunking is a dynamical phenomenon that nature uses to perform information processing of long sequences by dividing them in shorter information items. Chunking, for example, makes more efficient the use of short-term memory by breaking up long strings of information (like in language where one can see the separation of a novel on chapters, paragraphs, sentences, and finally words). Chunking is important in many processes of perception, learning, and cognition in humans and animals. Based on anatomical information about the hierarchical organization of functional brain networks, we propose a cognitive network architecture that hierarchically chunks and super-chunks switching sequences of metastable states produced by winnerless competitive heteroclinic dynamics. PMID:24672469

Chunking dynamics: heteroclinics in mind.

PubMed

Rabinovich, Mikhail I; Varona, Pablo; Tristan, Irma; Afraimovich, Valentin S

2014-01-01

Recent results of imaging technologies and non-linear dynamics make possible to relate the structure and dynamics of functional brain networks to different mental tasks and to build theoretical models for the description and prediction of cognitive activity. Such models are non-linear dynamical descriptions of the interaction of the core components-brain modes-participating in a specific mental function. The dynamical images of different mental processes depend on their temporal features. The dynamics of many cognitive functions are transient. They are often observed as a chain of sequentially changing metastable states. A stable heteroclinic channel (SHC) consisting of a chain of saddles-metastable states-connected by unstable separatrices is a mathematical image for robust transients. In this paper we focus on hierarchical chunking dynamics that can represent several forms of transient cognitive activity. Chunking is a dynamical phenomenon that nature uses to perform information processing of long sequences by dividing them in shorter information items. Chunking, for example, makes more efficient the use of short-term memory by breaking up long strings of information (like in language where one can see the separation of a novel on chapters, paragraphs, sentences, and finally words). Chunking is important in many processes of perception, learning, and cognition in humans and animals. Based on anatomical information about the hierarchical organization of functional brain networks, we propose a cognitive network architecture that hierarchically chunks and super-chunks switching sequences of metastable states produced by winnerless competitive heteroclinic dynamics.

Orientation selectivity in inhibition-dominated networks of spiking neurons: effect of single neuron properties and network dynamics.

PubMed

Sadeh, Sadra; Rotter, Stefan

2015-01-01

The neuronal mechanisms underlying the emergence of orientation selectivity in the primary visual cortex of mammals are still elusive. In rodents, visual neurons show highly selective responses to oriented stimuli, but neighboring neurons do not necessarily have similar preferences. Instead of a smooth map, one observes a salt-and-pepper organization of orientation selectivity. Modeling studies have recently confirmed that balanced random networks are indeed capable of amplifying weakly tuned inputs and generating highly selective output responses, even in absence of feature-selective recurrent connectivity. Here we seek to elucidate the neuronal mechanisms underlying this phenomenon by resorting to networks of integrate-and-fire neurons, which are amenable to analytic treatment. Specifically, in networks of perfect integrate-and-fire neurons, we observe that highly selective and contrast invariant output responses emerge, very similar to networks of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons. We then demonstrate that a theory based on mean firing rates and the detailed network topology predicts the output responses, and explains the mechanisms underlying the suppression of the common-mode, amplification of modulation, and contrast invariance. Increasing inhibition dominance in our networks makes the rectifying nonlinearity more prominent, which in turn adds some distortions to the otherwise essentially linear prediction. An extension of the linear theory can account for all the distortions, enabling us to compute the exact shape of every individual tuning curve in our networks. We show that this simple form of nonlinearity adds two important properties to orientation selectivity in the network, namely sharpening of tuning curves and extra suppression of the modulation. The theory can be further extended to account for the nonlinearity of the leaky model by replacing the rectifier by the appropriate smooth input-output transfer function. These results are robust and do not depend on the state of network dynamics, and hold equally well for mean-driven and fluctuation-driven regimes of activity.

Orientation Selectivity in Inhibition-Dominated Networks of Spiking Neurons: Effect of Single Neuron Properties and Network Dynamics

PubMed Central

Sadeh, Sadra; Rotter, Stefan

2015-01-01

The neuronal mechanisms underlying the emergence of orientation selectivity in the primary visual cortex of mammals are still elusive. In rodents, visual neurons show highly selective responses to oriented stimuli, but neighboring neurons do not necessarily have similar preferences. Instead of a smooth map, one observes a salt-and-pepper organization of orientation selectivity. Modeling studies have recently confirmed that balanced random networks are indeed capable of amplifying weakly tuned inputs and generating highly selective output responses, even in absence of feature-selective recurrent connectivity. Here we seek to elucidate the neuronal mechanisms underlying this phenomenon by resorting to networks of integrate-and-fire neurons, which are amenable to analytic treatment. Specifically, in networks of perfect integrate-and-fire neurons, we observe that highly selective and contrast invariant output responses emerge, very similar to networks of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons. We then demonstrate that a theory based on mean firing rates and the detailed network topology predicts the output responses, and explains the mechanisms underlying the suppression of the common-mode, amplification of modulation, and contrast invariance. Increasing inhibition dominance in our networks makes the rectifying nonlinearity more prominent, which in turn adds some distortions to the otherwise essentially linear prediction. An extension of the linear theory can account for all the distortions, enabling us to compute the exact shape of every individual tuning curve in our networks. We show that this simple form of nonlinearity adds two important properties to orientation selectivity in the network, namely sharpening of tuning curves and extra suppression of the modulation. The theory can be further extended to account for the nonlinearity of the leaky model by replacing the rectifier by the appropriate smooth input-output transfer function. These results are robust and do not depend on the state of network dynamics, and hold equally well for mean-driven and fluctuation-driven regimes of activity. PMID:25569445

Taking sociality seriously: the structure of multi-dimensional social networks as a source of information for individuals

PubMed Central

Barrett, Louise; Henzi, S. Peter; Lusseau, David

2012-01-01

Understanding human cognitive evolution, and that of the other primates, means taking sociality very seriously. For humans, this requires the recognition of the sociocultural and historical means by which human minds and selves are constructed, and how this gives rise to the reflexivity and ability to respond to novelty that characterize our species. For other, non-linguistic, primates we can answer some interesting questions by viewing social life as a feedback process, drawing on cybernetics and systems approaches and using social network neo-theory to test these ideas. Specifically, we show how social networks can be formalized as multi-dimensional objects, and use entropy measures to assess how networks respond to perturbation. We use simulations and natural ‘knock-outs’ in a free-ranging baboon troop to demonstrate that changes in interactions after social perturbations lead to a more certain social network, in which the outcomes of interactions are easier for members to predict. This new formalization of social networks provides a framework within which to predict network dynamics and evolution, helps us highlight how human and non-human social networks differ and has implications for theories of cognitive evolution. PMID:22734054

Information processing by networks of quantum decision makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yukalov, V. I.; Yukalova, E. P.; Sornette, D.

2018-02-01

We suggest a model of a multi-agent society of decision makers taking decisions being based on two criteria, one is the utility of the prospects and the other is the attractiveness of the considered prospects. The model is the generalization of quantum decision theory, developed earlier for single decision makers realizing one-step decisions, in two principal aspects. First, several decision makers are considered simultaneously, who interact with each other through information exchange. Second, a multistep procedure is treated, when the agents exchange information many times. Several decision makers exchanging information and forming their judgment, using quantum rules, form a kind of a quantum information network, where collective decisions develop in time as a result of information exchange. In addition to characterizing collective decisions that arise in human societies, such networks can describe dynamical processes occurring in artificial quantum intelligence composed of several parts or in a cluster of quantum computers. The practical usage of the theory is illustrated on the dynamic disjunction effect for which three quantitative predictions are made: (i) the probabilistic behavior of decision makers at the initial stage of the process is described; (ii) the decrease of the difference between the initial prospect probabilities and the related utility factors is proved; (iii) the existence of a common consensus after multiple exchange of information is predicted. The predicted numerical values are in very good agreement with empirical data.

Simulation for Dynamic Situation Awareness and Prediction III

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

source Java ™ library for capturing and sending network packets; 4) Groovy – an open source, Java -based scripting language (version 1.6 or newer). Open...DMOTH Analyzer application. Groovy is an open source dynamic scripting language for the Java Virtual Machine. It is consistent with Java syntax...between temperature, pressure, wind and relative humidity, and 3) a precipitation editing algorithm. The Editor can be used to prepare scripted changes

Epidemic Process over the Commute Network in a Metropolitan Area

PubMed Central

Yashima, Kenta; Sasaki, Akira

2014-01-01

An understanding of epidemiological dynamics is important for prevention and control of epidemic outbreaks. However, previous studies tend to focus only on specific areas, indicating that application to another area or intervention strategy requires a similar time-consuming simulation. Here, we study the epidemic dynamics of the disease-spread over a commute network, using the Tokyo metropolitan area as an example, in an attempt to elucidate the general properties of epidemic spread over a commute network that could be used for a prediction in any metropolitan area. The model is formulated on the basis of a metapopulation network in which local populations are interconnected by actual commuter flows in the Tokyo metropolitan area and the spread of infection is simulated by an individual-based model. We find that the probability of a global epidemic as well as the final epidemic sizes in both global and local populations, the timing of the epidemic peak, and the time at which the epidemic reaches a local population are mainly determined by the joint distribution of the local population sizes connected by the commuter flows, but are insensitive to geographical or topological structure of the network. Moreover, there is a strong relation between the population size and the time that the epidemic reaches this local population and we are able to determine the reason for this relation as well as its dependence on the commute network structure and epidemic parameters. This study shows that the model based on the connection between the population size classes is sufficient to predict both global and local epidemic dynamics in metropolitan area. Moreover, the clear relation of the time taken by the epidemic to reach each local population can be used as a novel measure for intervention; this enables efficient intervention strategies in each local population prior to the actual arrival. PMID:24905831

Multimodal Classification of Schizophrenia Patients with MEG and fMRI Data Using Static and Dynamic Connectivity Measures

PubMed Central

Cetin, Mustafa S.; Houck, Jon M.; Rashid, Barnaly; Agacoglu, Oktay; Stephen, Julia M.; Sui, Jing; Canive, Jose; Mayer, Andy; Aine, Cheryl; Bustillo, Juan R.; Calhoun, Vince D.

2016-01-01

Mental disorders like schizophrenia are currently diagnosed by physicians/psychiatrists through clinical assessment and their evaluation of patient's self-reported experiences as the illness emerges. There is great interest in identifying biological markers of prognosis at the onset of illness, rather than relying on the evolution of symptoms across time. Functional network connectivity, which indicates a subject's overall level of “synchronicity” of activity between brain regions, demonstrates promise in providing individual subject predictive power. Many previous studies reported functional connectivity changes during resting-state using only functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Nevertheless, exclusive reliance on fMRI to generate such networks may limit the inference of the underlying dysfunctional connectivity, which is hypothesized to be a factor in patient symptoms, as fMRI measures connectivity via hemodynamics. Therefore, combination of connectivity assessments using fMRI and magnetoencephalography (MEG), which more directly measures neuronal activity, may provide improved classification of schizophrenia than either modality alone. Moreover, recent evidence indicates that metrics of dynamic connectivity may also be critical for understanding pathology in schizophrenia. In this work, we propose a new framework for extraction of important disease related features and classification of patients with schizophrenia based on using both fMRI and MEG to investigate functional network components in the resting state. Results of this study show that the integration of fMRI and MEG provides important information that captures fundamental characteristics of functional network connectivity in schizophrenia and is helpful for prediction of schizophrenia patient group membership. Combined fMRI/MEG methods, using static functional network connectivity analyses, improved classification accuracy relative to use of fMRI or MEG methods alone (by 15 and 12.45%, respectively), while combined fMRI/MEG methods using dynamic functional network connectivity analyses improved classification up to 5.12% relative to use of fMRI alone and up to 17.21% relative to use of MEG alone. PMID:27807403

Cohesion, team mental models, and collective efficacy: towards an integrated framework of team dynamics in sport.

PubMed

Filho, Edson; Tenenbaum, Gershon; Yang, Yanyun

2015-01-01

A nomological network on team dynamics in sports consisting of a multiframework perspective is introduced and tested. The aim was to explore the interrelationship among cohesion, team mental models (TMMs), collective efficacy (CE) and perceived performance potential (PPP). Three hundred and forty college-aged soccer players representing 17 different teams (8 female and 9 male) participated in the study. They responded to surveys on team cohesion, TMMs, CE and PPP. Results are congruent with the theoretical conceptualisation of a parsimonious view of team dynamics in sports. Specifically, cohesion was found to be an exogenous variable predicting both TMMs and CE beliefs. TMMs and CE were correlated and predicted PPP, which in turn accounted for 59% of the variance of objective performance scores as measured by teams' season record. From a theoretical standpoint, findings resulted in a parsimonious view of team dynamics, which may represent an initial step towards clarifying the epistemological roots and nomological network of various team-level properties. From an applied standpoint, results suggest that team expertise starts with the establishment of team cohesion. Following the establishment of cohesiveness, teammates are able to advance team-related schemas and a collective sense of confidence. Limitations and key directions for future research are outlined.

Time Series Analysis of the Bacillus subtilis Sporulation Network Reveals Low Dimensional Chaotic Dynamics.

PubMed

Lecca, Paola; Mura, Ivan; Re, Angela; Barker, Gary C; Ihekwaba, Adaoha E C

2016-01-01

Chaotic behavior refers to a behavior which, albeit irregular, is generated by an underlying deterministic process. Therefore, a chaotic behavior is potentially controllable. This possibility becomes practically amenable especially when chaos is shown to be low-dimensional, i.e., to be attributable to a small fraction of the total systems components. In this case, indeed, including the major drivers of chaos in a system into the modeling approach allows us to improve predictability of the systems dynamics. Here, we analyzed the numerical simulations of an accurate ordinary differential equation model of the gene network regulating sporulation initiation in Bacillus subtilis to explore whether the non-linearity underlying time series data is due to low-dimensional chaos. Low-dimensional chaos is expectedly common in systems with few degrees of freedom, but rare in systems with many degrees of freedom such as the B. subtilis sporulation network. The estimation of a number of indices, which reflect the chaotic nature of a system, indicates that the dynamics of this network is affected by deterministic chaos. The neat separation between the indices obtained from the time series simulated from the model and those obtained from time series generated by Gaussian white and colored noise confirmed that the B. subtilis sporulation network dynamics is affected by low dimensional chaos rather than by noise. Furthermore, our analysis identifies the principal driver of the networks chaotic dynamics to be sporulation initiation phosphotransferase B (Spo0B). We then analyzed the parameters and the phase space of the system to characterize the instability points of the network dynamics, and, in turn, to identify the ranges of values of Spo0B and of the other drivers of the chaotic dynamics, for which the whole system is highly sensitive to minimal perturbation. In summary, we described an unappreciated source of complexity in the B. subtilis sporulation network by gathering evidence for the chaotic behavior of the system, and by suggesting candidate molecules driving chaos in the system. The results of our chaos analysis can increase our understanding of the intricacies of the regulatory network under analysis, and suggest experimental work to refine our behavior of the mechanisms underlying B. subtilis sporulation initiation control.

Broken Detailed Balance of Filament Dynamics in Active Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Christoph F.; Gladrow, Jannes; Fakhri, Nikta; Mackintosh, Fred C.; Broedersz, Chase

Endogenous embedded semiflexible filaments such as microtubules, or added filaments such as single- walled carbon nanotubes can be used as novel tools to noninvasively track equilibrium and nonequilibrium fluctuations in biopolymer networks. We analytically calculated shape fluctuations of semi- flexible probe filaments in a viscoelastic environment, driven out of equilibrium by motor activity. Transverse bending fluctuations of the probe filaments can be decomposed into dynamic normal modes. We find that these modes no longer evolve independently under non-equilibrium driving. This effective mode coupling results in nonzero circulatory currents in a conformational phase space, reflecting a violation of detailed balance. We present predictions for the characteristic frequencies associated with these currents and investigate how the temporal signatures of motor activity determine mode correlations, which we find to be consistent with recent experiments on microtubules embedded in cytoskeletal networks.

Application of artificial neural networks to the design optimization of aerospace structural components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berke, Laszlo; Patnaik, Surya N.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

1993-01-01

The application of artificial neural networks to capture structural design expertise is demonstrated. The principal advantage of a trained neural network is that it requires trivial computational effort to produce an acceptable new design. For the class of problems addressed, the development of a conventional expert system would be extremely difficult. In the present effort, a structural optimization code with multiple nonlinear programming algorithms and an artificial neural network code NETS were used. A set of optimum designs for a ring and two aircraft wings for static and dynamic constraints were generated by using the optimization codes. The optimum design data were processed to obtain input and output pairs, which were used to develop a trained artificial neural network with the code NETS. Optimum designs for new design conditions were predicted by using the trained network. Neural net prediction of optimum designs was found to be satisfactory for most of the output design parameters. However, results from the present study indicate that caution must be exercised to ensure that all design variables are within selected error bounds.

Optimum Design of Aerospace Structural Components Using Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berke, L.; Patnaik, S. N.; Murthy, P. L. N.

1993-01-01

The application of artificial neural networks to capture structural design expertise is demonstrated. The principal advantage of a trained neural network is that it requires a trivial computational effort to produce an acceptable new design. For the class of problems addressed, the development of a conventional expert system would be extremely difficult. In the present effort, a structural optimization code with multiple nonlinear programming algorithms and an artificial neural network code NETS were used. A set of optimum designs for a ring and two aircraft wings for static and dynamic constraints were generated using the optimization codes. The optimum design data were processed to obtain input and output pairs, which were used to develop a trained artificial neural network using the code NETS. Optimum designs for new design conditions were predicted using the trained network. Neural net prediction of optimum designs was found to be satisfactory for the majority of the output design parameters. However, results from the present study indicate that caution must be exercised to ensure that all design variables are within selected error bounds.

Predicting impact of multi-paths on phase change in map-based vehicular ad hoc networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmes, Mark; Lemieux, George; Sonnenberg, Jerome; Chester, David B.

2014-05-01

Dynamic Spectrum Access, which through its ability to adapt the operating frequency of a radio, is widely believed to be a solution to the limited spectrum problem. Mobile Ad Hoc Networks (MANETs) can extend high capacity mobile communications over large areas where fixed and tethered-mobile systems are not available. In one use case with high potential impact cognitive radio employs spectrum sensing to facilitate identification of allocated frequencies not currently accessed by their primary users. Primary users own the rights to radiate at a specific frequency and geographic location, secondary users opportunistically attempt to radiate at a specific frequency when the primary user is not using it. We quantify optimal signal detection in map based cognitive radio networks with multiple rapidly varying phase changes and multiple orthogonal signals. Doppler shift occurs due to reflection, scattering, and rapid vehicle movement. Path propagation as well as vehicle movement produces either constructive or destructive interference with the incident wave. Our signal detection algorithms can assist the Doppler spread compensation algorithm by deciding how many phase changes in signals are present in a selected band of interest. Additionally we can populate a spatial radio environment map (REM) database with known information that can be leveraged in an ad hoc network to facilitate Dynamic Spectrum Access. We show how topography can help predict the impact of multi-paths on phase change, as well as about the prediction from dense traffic areas. Utilization of high resolution geospatial data layers in RF propagation analysis is directly applicable.

An equation-free probabilistic steady-state approximation: dynamic application to the stochastic simulation of biochemical reaction networks.

PubMed

Salis, Howard; Kaznessis, Yiannis N

2005-12-01

Stochastic chemical kinetics more accurately describes the dynamics of "small" chemical systems, such as biological cells. Many real systems contain dynamical stiffness, which causes the exact stochastic simulation algorithm or other kinetic Monte Carlo methods to spend the majority of their time executing frequently occurring reaction events. Previous methods have successfully applied a type of probabilistic steady-state approximation by deriving an evolution equation, such as the chemical master equation, for the relaxed fast dynamics and using the solution of that equation to determine the slow dynamics. However, because the solution of the chemical master equation is limited to small, carefully selected, or linear reaction networks, an alternate equation-free method would be highly useful. We present a probabilistic steady-state approximation that separates the time scales of an arbitrary reaction network, detects the convergence of a marginal distribution to a quasi-steady-state, directly samples the underlying distribution, and uses those samples to accurately predict the state of the system, including the effects of the slow dynamics, at future times. The numerical method produces an accurate solution of both the fast and slow reaction dynamics while, for stiff systems, reducing the computational time by orders of magnitude. The developed theory makes no approximations on the shape or form of the underlying steady-state distribution and only assumes that it is ergodic. We demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the method using multiple interesting examples, including a highly nonlinear protein-protein interaction network. The developed theory may be applied to any type of kinetic Monte Carlo simulation to more efficiently simulate dynamically stiff systems, including existing exact, approximate, or hybrid stochastic simulation techniques.

Computational Model of Secondary Palate Fusion and Disruption

EPA Science Inventory

Morphogenetic events are driven by cell-generated physical forces and complex cellular dynamics. To improve our capacity to predict developmental effects from cellular alterations, we built a multi-cellular agent-based model in CompuCell3D that recapitulates the cellular networks...

Relaxation and physical aging in network glasses: a review.

PubMed

Micoulaut, Matthieu

2016-06-01

Recent progress in the description of glassy relaxation and aging are reviewed for the wide class of network-forming materials such as GeO2, Ge x Se1-x , silicates (SiO2-Na2O) or borates (B2O3-Li2O), all of which have an important usefulness in domestic, geological or optoelectronic applications. A brief introduction of the glass transition phenomenology is given, together with the salient features that are revealed both from theory and experiments. Standard experimental methods used for the characterization of the slowing down of the dynamics are reviewed. We then discuss the important role played by aspects of network topology and rigidity for the understanding of the relaxation of the glass transition, while also permitting analytical predictions of glass properties from simple and insightful models based on the network structure. We also emphasize the great utility of computer simulations which probe the dynamics at the molecular level, and permit the calculation of various structure-related functions in connection with glassy relaxation and the physics of aging which reveal the non-equilibrium nature of glasses. We discuss the notion of spatial variations of structure which leads to the concept of 'dynamic heterogeneities', and recent results in relation to this important topic for network glasses are also reviewed.

Improved Dynamic Lightpath Provisioning for Large Wavelength-Division Multiplexed Backbones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Huifang; Phillips, Chris

2007-07-01

Technology already exists that would allow future optical networks to support automatic lightpath configuration in response to dynamic traffic demands. Given appropriate commercial drivers, it is possible to foresee carrier network operators migrating away from semipermanent provisioning to enable on-demand short-duration communications. However, with traditional lightpath reservation protocols, a portion of the lightpath is idly held during the signaling propagation phase, which can significantly reduce the lightpath bandwidth efficiency in large wavelength-division multiplexed backbones. This paper proposes a prebooking mechanism to improve the lightpath efficiency over traditional reactive two-way reservation protocols, consequently liberating network resources to support higher traffic loads. The prebooking mechanism predicts the time when the traffic will appear at the optical cross connects, and intelligently schedules the lightpath components such that resources are only consumed as necessary. We describe the proposed signaling procedure for both centralized and distributed control planes and analyze its performance. This paper also investigates the aggregated flow length characteristics with the self-similar incident traffic and examines the effects of traffic prediction on the blocking probability as well as the ability to support latency sensitive traffic in a wide-area environment.

Spreading paths in partially observed social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Christakis, Nicholas A.

2012-03-01

Understanding how and how far information, behaviors, or pathogens spread in social networks is an important problem, having implications for both predicting the size of epidemics, as well as for planning effective interventions. There are, however, two main challenges for inferring spreading paths in real-world networks. One is the practical difficulty of observing a dynamic process on a network, and the other is the typical constraint of only partially observing a network. Using static, structurally realistic social networks as platforms for simulations, we juxtapose three distinct paths: (1) the stochastic path taken by a simulated spreading process from source to target; (2) the topologically shortest path in the fully observed network, and hence the single most likely stochastic path, between the two nodes; and (3) the topologically shortest path in a partially observed network. In a sampled network, how closely does the partially observed shortest path (3) emulate the unobserved spreading path (1)? Although partial observation inflates the length of the shortest path, the stochastic nature of the spreading process also frequently derails the dynamic path from the shortest path. We find that the partially observed shortest path does not necessarily give an inflated estimate of the length of the process path; in fact, partial observation may, counterintuitively, make the path seem shorter than it actually is.

Spreading paths in partially observed social networks.

PubMed

Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Christakis, Nicholas A

2012-03-01

Understanding how and how far information, behaviors, or pathogens spread in social networks is an important problem, having implications for both predicting the size of epidemics, as well as for planning effective interventions. There are, however, two main challenges for inferring spreading paths in real-world networks. One is the practical difficulty of observing a dynamic process on a network, and the other is the typical constraint of only partially observing a network. Using static, structurally realistic social networks as platforms for simulations, we juxtapose three distinct paths: (1) the stochastic path taken by a simulated spreading process from source to target; (2) the topologically shortest path in the fully observed network, and hence the single most likely stochastic path, between the two nodes; and (3) the topologically shortest path in a partially observed network. In a sampled network, how closely does the partially observed shortest path (3) emulate the unobserved spreading path (1)? Although partial observation inflates the length of the shortest path, the stochastic nature of the spreading process also frequently derails the dynamic path from the shortest path. We find that the partially observed shortest path does not necessarily give an inflated estimate of the length of the process path; in fact, partial observation may, counterintuitively, make the path seem shorter than it actually is.

Reaction-diffusion processes and metapopulation models on duplex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xuan, Qi; Du, Fang; Yu, Li; Chen, Guanrong

2013-03-01

Reaction-diffusion processes, used to model various spatially distributed dynamics such as epidemics, have been studied mostly on regular lattices or complex networks with simplex links that are identical and invariant in transferring different kinds of particles. However, in many self-organized systems, different particles may have their own private channels to keep their purities. Such division of links often significantly influences the underlying reaction-diffusion dynamics and thus needs to be carefully investigated. This article studies a special reaction-diffusion process, named susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics, given by the reaction steps β→α and α+β→2β, on duplex networks where links are classified into two groups: α and β links used to transfer α and β particles, which, along with the corresponding nodes, consist of an α subnetwork and a β subnetwork, respectively. It is found that the critical point of particle density to sustain reaction activity is independent of the network topology if there is no correlation between the degree sequences of the two subnetworks, and this critical value is suppressed or extended if the two degree sequences are positively or negatively correlated, respectively. Based on the obtained results, it is predicted that epidemic spreading may be promoted on positive correlated traffic networks but may be suppressed on networks with modules composed of different types of diffusion links.

Fragmentation alters stream fish community structure in dendritic ecological networks.

PubMed

Perkin, Joshuah S; Gido, Keith B

2012-12-01

Effects of fragmentation on the ecology of organisms occupying dendritic ecological networks (DENs) have recently been described through both conceptual and mathematical models, but few hypotheses have been tested in complex, real-world ecosystems. Stream fishes provide a model system for assessing effects of fragmentation on the structure of communities occurring within DENs, including how fragmentation alters metacommunity dynamics and biodiversity. A recently developed habitat-availability measure, the "dendritic connectivity index" (DCI), allows for assigning quantitative measures of connectivity in DENs regardless of network extent or complexity, and might be used to predict fish community response to fragmentation. We characterized stream fish community structure in 12 DENs in the Great Plains, USA, during periods of dynamic (summer) and muted (fall) discharge regimes to test the DCI as a predictive model of fish community response to fragmentation imposed by road crossings. Results indicated that fish communities in stream segments isolated by road crossings had reduced species richness (alpha diversity) relative to communities that maintained connectivity with the surrounding DEN during summer and fall. Furthermore, isolated communities had greater dissimilarity (beta diversity) to downstream sites notisolated by road crossings during summer and fall. Finally, dissimilarity among communities within DENs decreased as a function of increased habitat connectivity (measured using the DCI) for summer and fall, suggesting that communities within highly connected DENs tend to be more homogeneous. Our results indicate that the DCI is sensitive to community effects of fragmentation in riverscapes and might be used by managers to predict ecological responses to changes in habitat connectivity. Moreover, our findings illustrate that relating structural connectivity of riverscapes to functional connectivity among communities might aid in maintaining metacommunity dynamics and biodiversity in complex dendritic ecosystems.

Geometric phase transition in the cellular network of the pancreatic islets may underlie the onset of type 1diabetes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xujing

Living systems are characterized by complexity in structure and emergent dynamic orders. In many aspects the onset of a chronic disease resembles phase transition in a dynamic system: quantitative changes accumulate largely unnoticed until a critical threshold is reached, which causes abrupt qualitative changes of the system. In this study we investigate this idea in a real example, the insulin-producing pancreatic islet β-cells and the onset of type 1 diabetes. Within each islet, the β-cells are electrically coupled to each other, and function as a network with synchronized actions. Using percolation theory we show how normal islet function is intrinsically linked to network connectivity, and the critical point where the islet cellular network loses site percolation, is consistent with laboratory and clinical observations of the threshold β-cell loss that causes islet functional failure. Numerical simulations confirm that the islet cellular network needs to be percolated for β-cells to synchronize. Furthermore, the interplay between site percolation and bond strength predicts the existence of a transient phase of islet functional recovery after disease onset and introduction of treatment, potentially explaining a long time mystery in the clinical study of type 1 diabetes: the honeymoon phenomenon. Based on these results, we hypothesized that the onset of T1D may be the result of a phase transition of the islet β-cell network. We further discuss the potential applications in identifying disease-driving factors, and the critical parameters that are predictive of disease onset.

Network diffusion accurately models the relationship between structural and functional brain connectivity networks

PubMed Central

Abdelnour, Farras; Voss, Henning U.; Raj, Ashish

2014-01-01

The relationship between anatomic connectivity of large-scale brain networks and their functional connectivity is of immense importance and an area of active research. Previous attempts have required complex simulations which model the dynamics of each cortical region, and explore the coupling between regions as derived by anatomic connections. While much insight is gained from these non-linear simulations, they can be computationally taxing tools for predicting functional from anatomic connectivities. Little attention has been paid to linear models. Here we show that a properly designed linear model appears to be superior to previous non-linear approaches in capturing the brain’s long-range second order correlation structure that governs the relationship between anatomic and functional connectivities. We derive a linear network of brain dynamics based on graph diffusion, whereby the diffusing quantity undergoes a random walk on a graph. We test our model using subjects who underwent diffusion MRI and resting state fMRI. The network diffusion model applied to the structural networks largely predicts the correlation structures derived from their fMRI data, to a greater extent than other approaches. The utility of the proposed approach is that it can routinely be used to infer functional correlation from anatomic connectivity. And since it is linear, anatomic connectivity can also be inferred from functional data. The success of our model confirms the linearity of ensemble average signals in the brain, and implies that their long-range correlation structure may percolate within the brain via purely mechanistic processes enacted on its structural connectivity pathways. PMID:24384152

Control of cancer-related signal transduction networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albert, Reka

2013-03-01

Intra-cellular signaling networks are crucial to the maintenance of cellular homeostasis and for cell behavior (growth, survival, apoptosis, movement). Mutations or alterations in the expression of elements of cellular signaling networks can lead to incorrect behavioral decisions that could result in tumor development and/or the promotion of cell migration and metastasis. Thus, mitigation of the cascading effects of such dysregulations is an important control objective. My group at Penn State is collaborating with wet-bench biologists to develop and validate predictive models of various biological systems. Over the years we found that discrete dynamic modeling is very useful in molding qualitative interaction information into a predictive model. We recently demonstrated the effectiveness of network-based targeted manipulations on mitigating the disease T cell large granular lymphocyte (T-LGL) leukemia. The root of this disease is the abnormal survival of T cells which, after successfully fighting an infection, should undergo programmed cell death. We synthesized the relevant network of within-T-cell interactions from the literature, integrated it with qualitative knowledge of the dysregulated (abnormal) states of several network components, and formulated a Boolean dynamic model. The model indicated that the system possesses a steady state corresponding to the normal cell death state and a T-LGL steady state corresponding to the abnormal survival state. For each node, we evaluated the restorative manipulation consisting of maintaining the node in the state that is the opposite of its T-LGL state, e.g. knocking it out if it is overexpressed in the T-LGL state. We found that such control of any of 15 nodes led to the disappearance of the T-LGL steady state, leaving cell death as the only potential outcome from any initial condition. In four additional cases the probability of reaching the T-LGL state decreased dramatically, thus these nodes are also possible control targets. Our collaborators validated two of these predicted control mechanisms experimentally. Our work suggests that external control of a single node can be a fruitful therapeutic strategy.

Nonlinear Recurrent Neural Network Predictive Control for Energy Distribution of a Fuel Cell Powered Robot

PubMed Central

Chen, Qihong; Long, Rong; Quan, Shuhai

2014-01-01

This paper presents a neural network predictive control strategy to optimize power distribution for a fuel cell/ultracapacitor hybrid power system of a robot. We model the nonlinear power system by employing time variant auto-regressive moving average with exogenous (ARMAX), and using recurrent neural network to represent the complicated coefficients of the ARMAX model. Because the dynamic of the system is viewed as operating- state- dependent time varying local linear behavior in this frame, a linear constrained model predictive control algorithm is developed to optimize the power splitting between the fuel cell and ultracapacitor. The proposed algorithm significantly simplifies implementation of the controller and can handle multiple constraints, such as limiting substantial fluctuation of fuel cell current. Experiment and simulation results demonstrate that the control strategy can optimally split power between the fuel cell and ultracapacitor, limit the change rate of the fuel cell current, and so as to extend the lifetime of the fuel cell. PMID:24707206

Prediction based active ramp metering control strategy with mobility and safety assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Jie; Tu, Lili

2018-04-01

Ramp metering is one of the most direct and efficient motorway traffic flow management measures so as to improve traffic conditions. However, owing to short of traffic conditions prediction, in earlier studies, the impact on traffic flow dynamics of the applied RM control was not quantitatively evaluated. In this study, a RM control algorithm adopting Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework to predict and assess future traffic conditions, which taking both the current traffic conditions and the RM-controlled future traffic states into consideration, was presented. The designed RM control algorithm targets at optimizing the network mobility and safety performance. The designed algorithm is evaluated in a field-data-based simulation. Through comparing the presented algorithm controlled scenario with the uncontrolled scenario, it was proved that the proposed RM control algorithm can effectively relieve the congestion of traffic network with no significant compromises in safety aspect.

Opportunities and challenges of disease biomarkers: a new section in the Journal of Translational Medicine.

PubMed

Wang, Xiangdong; Ward, Peter A

2012-12-05

Disease biomarkers are defined to diagnose various phases of diseases, monitor severities of diseases and responses to therapies, or predict prognosis of patients. Disease-specific biomarkers should benefit drug discovery and development, integrate multidisciplinary sciences, be validated by molecular imaging. The opportunities and challenges in biomarker development are emphasized and considered. The Journal of Translational Medicine opens a new Section of Disease Biomarkers to bridge identification and validation of gene or protein-based biomarkers, network biomarkers, dynamic network biomarkers in human diseases, patient phenotypes, and clinical applications. Disease biomarkers are also important for determining drug effects, target specificities and binding, dynamic metabolism and pharmacological kinetics, or toxicity profiles.

Small-world networks exhibit pronounced intermittent synchronization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhary, Anshul; Mitra, Chiranjit; Kohar, Vivek; Sinha, Sudeshna; Kurths, Jürgen

2017-11-01

We report the phenomenon of temporally intermittently synchronized and desynchronized dynamics in Watts-Strogatz networks of chaotic Rössler oscillators. We consider topologies for which the master stability function (MSF) predicts stable synchronized behaviour, as the rewiring probability (p) is tuned from 0 to 1. MSF essentially utilizes the largest non-zero Lyapunov exponent transversal to the synchronization manifold in making stability considerations, thereby ignoring the other Lyapunov exponents. However, for an N-node networked dynamical system, we observe that the difference in its Lyapunov spectra (corresponding to the N - 1 directions transversal to the synchronization manifold) is crucial and serves as an indicator of the presence of intermittently synchronized behaviour. In addition to the linear stability-based (MSF) analysis, we further provide global stability estimate in terms of the fraction of state-space volume shared by the intermittently synchronized state, as p is varied from 0 to 1. This fraction becomes appreciably large in the small-world regime, which is surprising, since this limit has been otherwise considered optimal for synchronized dynamics. Finally, we characterize the nature of the observed intermittency and its dominance in state-space as network rewiring probability (p) is varied.

Innovation diffusion on time-varying activity driven networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzo, Alessandro; Porfiri, Maurizio

2016-01-01

Since its introduction in the 1960s, the theory of innovation diffusion has contributed to the advancement of several research fields, such as marketing management and consumer behavior. The 1969 seminal paper by Bass [F.M. Bass, Manag. Sci. 15, 215 (1969)] introduced a model of product growth for consumer durables, which has been extensively used to predict innovation diffusion across a range of applications. Here, we propose a novel approach to study innovation diffusion, where interactions among individuals are mediated by the dynamics of a time-varying network. Our approach is based on the Bass' model, and overcomes key limitations of previous studies, which assumed timescale separation between the individual dynamics and the evolution of the connectivity patterns. Thus, we do not hypothesize homogeneous mixing among individuals or the existence of a fixed interaction network. We formulate our approach in the framework of activity driven networks to enable the analysis of the concurrent evolution of the interaction and individual dynamics. Numerical simulations offer a systematic analysis of the model behavior and highlight the role of individual activity on market penetration when targeted advertisement campaigns are designed, or a competition between two different products takes place.

An Artificial Intelligence Approach for Modeling and Prediction of Water Diffusion Inside a Carbon Nanotube

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Modeling of water flow in carbon nanotubes is still a challenge for the classic models of fluid dynamics. In this investigation, an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is presented to solve this problem. The proposed ANFIS approach can construct an input–output mapping based on both human knowledge in the form of fuzzy if-then rules and stipulated input–output data pairs. Good performance of the designed ANFIS ensures its capability as a promising tool for modeling and prediction of fluid flow at nanoscale where the continuum models of fluid dynamics tend to break down. PMID:20596382

An Artificial Intelligence Approach for Modeling and Prediction of Water Diffusion Inside a Carbon Nanotube.

PubMed

Ahadian, Samad; Kawazoe, Yoshiyuki

2009-06-04

Modeling of water flow in carbon nanotubes is still a challenge for the classic models of fluid dynamics. In this investigation, an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is presented to solve this problem. The proposed ANFIS approach can construct an input-output mapping based on both human knowledge in the form of fuzzy if-then rules and stipulated input-output data pairs. Good performance of the designed ANFIS ensures its capability as a promising tool for modeling and prediction of fluid flow at nanoscale where the continuum models of fluid dynamics tend to break down.

Global brain dynamics during social exclusion predict subsequent behavioral conformity

PubMed Central

Wasylyshyn, Nick; Hemenway Falk, Brett; Garcia, Javier O; Cascio, Christopher N; O’Donnell, Matthew Brook; Bingham, C Raymond; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Vettel, Jean M; Falk, Emily B

2018-01-01

Abstract Individuals react differently to social experiences; for example, people who are more sensitive to negative social experiences, such as being excluded, may be more likely to adapt their behavior to fit in with others. We examined whether functional brain connectivity during social exclusion in the fMRI scanner can be used to predict subsequent conformity to peer norms. Adolescent males (n = 57) completed a two-part study on teen driving risk: a social exclusion task (Cyberball) during an fMRI session and a subsequent driving simulator session in which they drove alone and in the presence of a peer who expressed risk-averse or risk-accepting driving norms. We computed the difference in functional connectivity between social exclusion and social inclusion from each node in the brain to nodes in two brain networks, one previously associated with mentalizing (medial prefrontal cortex, temporoparietal junction, precuneus, temporal poles) and another with social pain (dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, anterior insula). Using predictive modeling, this measure of global connectivity during exclusion predicted the extent of conformity to peer pressure during driving in the subsequent experimental session. These findings extend our understanding of how global neural dynamics guide social behavior, revealing functional network activity that captures individual differences. PMID:29529310

Prediction of dynamic behavior of mutant strains from limited wild-type data.

PubMed

Song, Hyun-Seob; Ramkrishna, Doraiswami

2012-03-01

Metabolic engineering is the field of introducing genetic changes in organisms so as to modify their function towards synthesizing new products of high impact to society. However, engineered cells frequently have impaired growth rates thus seriously limiting the rate at which such products are made. The problem is attributable to inadequate understanding of how a metabolic network functions in a dynamic sense. Predictions of mutant strain behavior in the past have been based on steady state theories such as flux balance analysis (FBA), minimization of metabolic adjustment (MOMA), and regulatory on/off minimization (ROOM). Such predictions are restricted to product yields and cannot address productivity, which is of focal interest to applications. We demonstrate that our framework ( [Song and Ramkrishna, 2010] and [Song and Ramkrishna, 2011]), based on a “cybernetic” view of metabolic systems, makes predictions of the dynamic behavior of mutant strains of Escherichia coli from a limited amount of data obtained from the wild-type. Dynamic frameworks must necessarily address the issue of metabolic regulation, which the cybernetic approach does by postulating that metabolism is an optimal dynamic response of the organism to the environment in driving reactions towards ensuring survival. The predictions made in this paper are without parallel in the literature and lay the foundation for rational metabolic engineering. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Boolean network identification from perturbation time series data combining dynamics abstraction and logic programming.

PubMed

Ostrowski, M; Paulevé, L; Schaub, T; Siegel, A; Guziolowski, C

2016-11-01

Boolean networks (and more general logic models) are useful frameworks to study signal transduction across multiple pathways. Logic models can be learned from a prior knowledge network structure and multiplex phosphoproteomics data. However, most efficient and scalable training methods focus on the comparison of two time-points and assume that the system has reached an early steady state. In this paper, we generalize such a learning procedure to take into account the time series traces of phosphoproteomics data in order to discriminate Boolean networks according to their transient dynamics. To that end, we identify a necessary condition that must be satisfied by the dynamics of a Boolean network to be consistent with a discretized time series trace. Based on this condition, we use Answer Set Programming to compute an over-approximation of the set of Boolean networks which fit best with experimental data and provide the corresponding encodings. Combined with model-checking approaches, we end up with a global learning algorithm. Our approach is able to learn logic models with a true positive rate higher than 78% in two case studies of mammalian signaling networks; for a larger case study, our method provides optimal answers after 7min of computation. We quantified the gain in our method predictions precision compared to learning approaches based on static data. Finally, as an application, our method proposes erroneous time-points in the time series data with respect to the optimal learned logic models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Oscillatory Protein Expression Dynamics Endows Stem Cells with Robust Differentiation Potential

PubMed Central

Kaneko, Kunihiko

2011-01-01

The lack of understanding of stem cell differentiation and proliferation is a fundamental problem in developmental biology. Although gene regulatory networks (GRNs) for stem cell differentiation have been partially identified, the nature of differentiation dynamics and their regulation leading to robust development remain unclear. Herein, using a dynamical system modeling cell approach, we performed simulations of the developmental process using all possible GRNs with a few genes, and screened GRNs that could generate cell type diversity through cell-cell interactions. We found that model stem cells that both proliferated and differentiated always exhibited oscillatory expression dynamics, and the differentiation frequency of such stem cells was regulated, resulting in a robust number distribution. Moreover, we uncovered the common regulatory motifs for stem cell differentiation, in which a combination of regulatory motifs that generated oscillatory expression dynamics and stabilized distinct cellular states played an essential role. These findings may explain the recently observed heterogeneity and dynamic equilibrium in cellular states of stem cells, and can be used to predict regulatory networks responsible for differentiation in stem cell systems. PMID:22073296

Delay-induced Turing-like waves for one-species reaction-diffusion model on a network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petit, Julien; Carletti, Timoteo; Asllani, Malbor; Fanelli, Duccio

2015-09-01

A one-species time-delay reaction-diffusion system defined on a complex network is studied. Traveling waves are predicted to occur following a symmetry-breaking instability of a homogeneous stationary stable solution, subject to an external nonhomogeneous perturbation. These are generalized Turing-like waves that materialize in a single-species populations dynamics model, as the unexpected byproduct of the imposed delay in the diffusion part. Sufficient conditions for the onset of the instability are mathematically provided by performing a linear stability analysis adapted to time-delayed differential equations. The method here developed exploits the properties of the Lambert W-function. The prediction of the theory are confirmed by direct numerical simulation carried out for a modified version of the classical Fisher model, defined on a Watts-Strogatz network and with the inclusion of the delay.

An Autonomous Glider Network for the Monterey Bay Predictive Skill Experiment / AOSN-II

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-13

distributed measurements (Figure 1) of temperature and salinity, vertically-averaged velocity, chlorophyll fluorescence , optical backscatter, and PAR. We... Clarence Rowley, and Jerrold Marsden N000140210826 Underwater Glider Dynamics and Control Leonard (PI) N00014-02-1-0861 Autonomous Ocean Sampling

Layer-switching cost and optimality in information spreading on multiplex networks

PubMed Central

Min, Byungjoon; Gwak, Sang-Hwan; Lee, Nanoom; Goh, K. -I.

2016-01-01

We study a model of information spreading on multiplex networks, in which agents interact through multiple interaction channels (layers), say online vs. offline communication layers, subject to layer-switching cost for transmissions across different interaction layers. The model is characterized by the layer-wise path-dependent transmissibility over a contact, that is dynamically determined dependently on both incoming and outgoing transmission layers. We formulate an analytical framework to deal with such path-dependent transmissibility and demonstrate the nontrivial interplay between the multiplexity and spreading dynamics, including optimality. It is shown that the epidemic threshold and prevalence respond to the layer-switching cost non-monotonically and that the optimal conditions can change in abrupt non-analytic ways, depending also on the densities of network layers and the type of seed infections. Our results elucidate the essential role of multiplexity that its explicit consideration should be crucial for realistic modeling and prediction of spreading phenomena on multiplex social networks in an era of ever-diversifying social interaction layers. PMID:26887527

Extinction Dynamics and Control in Adaptive Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Ira; Shaw, Leah; Hindes, Jason

Disease control is of paramount importance in public health. Moreover, models of disease spread are an important component in implementing effective vaccination and treatment campaigns. However, human behavior in response to an outbreak has only recently been included in epidemic models on networks. Here we develop the mathematical machinery to describe the dynamics of extinction in finite populations that include human adaptive behavior. The formalism enables us to compute the optimal, fluctuation-induced path to extinction, and predict the average extinction time in adaptive networks as a function of the adaptation rate. We find that both observables have several unique scalings depending on the relative speed of infection and adaptivity. Finally, we discuss how the theory can be used to design optimal control programs in general networks, by coupling the effective force of noise with treatment and human behavior. Research supported by U.S. Naval Research Laboratory funding (Grant No. N0001414WX00023) and the Office of Naval Research (Grant No. N0001414WX20610).

Encoding sensory and motor patterns as time-invariant trajectories in recurrent neural networks

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Much of the information the brain processes and stores is temporal in nature—a spoken word or a handwritten signature, for example, is defined by how it unfolds in time. However, it remains unclear how neural circuits encode complex time-varying patterns. We show that by tuning the weights of a recurrent neural network (RNN), it can recognize and then transcribe spoken digits. The model elucidates how neural dynamics in cortical networks may resolve three fundamental challenges: first, encode multiple time-varying sensory and motor patterns as stable neural trajectories; second, generalize across relevant spatial features; third, identify the same stimuli played at different speeds—we show that this temporal invariance emerges because the recurrent dynamics generate neural trajectories with appropriately modulated angular velocities. Together our results generate testable predictions as to how recurrent networks may use different mechanisms to generalize across the relevant spatial and temporal features of complex time-varying stimuli. PMID:29537963

Encoding sensory and motor patterns as time-invariant trajectories in recurrent neural networks.

PubMed

Goudar, Vishwa; Buonomano, Dean V

2018-03-14

Much of the information the brain processes and stores is temporal in nature-a spoken word or a handwritten signature, for example, is defined by how it unfolds in time. However, it remains unclear how neural circuits encode complex time-varying patterns. We show that by tuning the weights of a recurrent neural network (RNN), it can recognize and then transcribe spoken digits. The model elucidates how neural dynamics in cortical networks may resolve three fundamental challenges: first, encode multiple time-varying sensory and motor patterns as stable neural trajectories; second, generalize across relevant spatial features; third, identify the same stimuli played at different speeds-we show that this temporal invariance emerges because the recurrent dynamics generate neural trajectories with appropriately modulated angular velocities. Together our results generate testable predictions as to how recurrent networks may use different mechanisms to generalize across the relevant spatial and temporal features of complex time-varying stimuli. © 2018, Goudar et al.

Assembly Kinetics Determine the Architecture of α-actinin Crosslinked F-actin Networks

PubMed Central

Falzone, Tobias T.; Lenz, Martin; Kovar, David R.; Gardel, Margaret L.

2013-01-01

The actin cytoskeleton is organized into diverse meshworks and bundles that support many aspects of cell physiology. Understanding the self-assembly of these actin-based structures is essential for developing predictive models of cytoskeletal organization. Here we show that the competing kinetics of bundle formation with the onset of dynamic arrest arising from filament entanglements and cross-linking determine the architecture of reconstituted actin networks formed with α-actinin cross-links. Cross-link mediated bundle formation only occurs in dilute solutions of highly mobile actin filaments. As actin polymerization proceeds, filament mobility and bundle formation are arrested concomitantly. By controlling the onset of dynamic arrest, perturbations to actin assembly kinetics dramatically alter the architecture of biochemically identical samples. Thus, the morphology of reconstituted F-actin networks is a kinetically determined structure similar to those formed by physical gels and glasses. These results establish mechanisms controlling the structure and mechanics in diverse semi-flexible biopolymer networks. PMID:22643888

Ensemble Kalman Filter for Dynamic State Estimation of Power Grids Stochastically Driven by Time-correlated Mechanical Input Power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosenthal, William Steven; Tartakovsky, Alex; Huang, Zhenyu

State and parameter estimation of power transmission networks is important for monitoring power grid operating conditions and analyzing transient stability. Wind power generation depends on fluctuating input power levels, which are correlated in time and contribute to uncertainty in turbine dynamical models. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard state estimation technique, uses a deterministic forecast and does not explicitly model time-correlated noise in parameters such as mechanical input power. However, this uncertainty affects the probability of fault-induced transient instability and increased prediction bias. Here a novel approach is to model input power noise with time-correlated stochastic fluctuations, and integratemore » them with the network dynamics during the forecast. While the EnKF has been used to calibrate constant parameters in turbine dynamical models, the calibration of a statistical model for a time-correlated parameter has not been investigated. In this study, twin experiments on a standard transmission network test case are used to validate our time-correlated noise model framework for state estimation of unsteady operating conditions and transient stability analysis, and a methodology is proposed for the inference of the mechanical input power time-correlation length parameter using time-series data from PMUs monitoring power dynamics at generator buses.« less

Topology and Dynamics of the Zebrafish Segmentation Clock Core Circuit

PubMed Central

Schröter, Christian; Isakova, Alina; Hens, Korneel; Soroldoni, Daniele; Gajewski, Martin; Jülicher, Frank; Maerkl, Sebastian J.; Deplancke, Bart; Oates, Andrew C.

2012-01-01

During vertebrate embryogenesis, the rhythmic and sequential segmentation of the body axis is regulated by an oscillating genetic network termed the segmentation clock. We describe a new dynamic model for the core pace-making circuit of the zebrafish segmentation clock based on a systematic biochemical investigation of the network's topology and precise measurements of somitogenesis dynamics in novel genetic mutants. We show that the core pace-making circuit consists of two distinct negative feedback loops, one with Her1 homodimers and the other with Her7:Hes6 heterodimers, operating in parallel. To explain the observed single and double mutant phenotypes of her1, her7, and hes6 mutant embryos in our dynamic model, we postulate that the availability and effective stability of the dimers with DNA binding activity is controlled in a “dimer cloud” that contains all possible dimeric combinations between the three factors. This feature of our model predicts that Hes6 protein levels should oscillate despite constant hes6 mRNA production, which we confirm experimentally using novel Hes6 antibodies. The control of the circuit's dynamics by a population of dimers with and without DNA binding activity is a new principle for the segmentation clock and may be relevant to other biological clocks and transcriptional regulatory networks. PMID:22911291

Ensemble Kalman Filter for Dynamic State Estimation of Power Grids Stochastically Driven by Time-correlated Mechanical Input Power

DOE PAGES

Rosenthal, William Steven; Tartakovsky, Alex; Huang, Zhenyu

2017-10-31

State and parameter estimation of power transmission networks is important for monitoring power grid operating conditions and analyzing transient stability. Wind power generation depends on fluctuating input power levels, which are correlated in time and contribute to uncertainty in turbine dynamical models. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard state estimation technique, uses a deterministic forecast and does not explicitly model time-correlated noise in parameters such as mechanical input power. However, this uncertainty affects the probability of fault-induced transient instability and increased prediction bias. Here a novel approach is to model input power noise with time-correlated stochastic fluctuations, and integratemore » them with the network dynamics during the forecast. While the EnKF has been used to calibrate constant parameters in turbine dynamical models, the calibration of a statistical model for a time-correlated parameter has not been investigated. In this study, twin experiments on a standard transmission network test case are used to validate our time-correlated noise model framework for state estimation of unsteady operating conditions and transient stability analysis, and a methodology is proposed for the inference of the mechanical input power time-correlation length parameter using time-series data from PMUs monitoring power dynamics at generator buses.« less

Network structure shapes spontaneous functional connectivity dynamics.

PubMed

Shen, Kelly; Hutchison, R Matthew; Bezgin, Gleb; Everling, Stefan; McIntosh, Anthony R

2015-04-08

The structural organization of the brain constrains the range of interactions between different regions and shapes ongoing information processing. Therefore, it is expected that large-scale dynamic functional connectivity (FC) patterns, a surrogate measure of coordination between brain regions, will be closely tied to the fiber pathways that form the underlying structural network. Here, we empirically examined the influence of network structure on FC dynamics by comparing resting-state FC (rsFC) obtained using BOLD-fMRI in macaques (Macaca fascicularis) to structural connectivity derived from macaque axonal tract tracing studies. Consistent with predictions from simulation studies, the correspondence between rsFC and structural connectivity increased as the sample duration increased. Regions with reciprocal structural connections showed the most stable rsFC across time. The data suggest that the transient nature of FC is in part dependent on direct underlying structural connections, but also that dynamic coordination can occur via polysynaptic pathways. Temporal stability was found to be dependent on structural topology, with functional connections within the rich-club core exhibiting the greatest stability over time. We discuss these findings in light of highly variable functional hubs. The results further elucidate how large-scale dynamic functional coordination exists within a fixed structural architecture. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/355579-10$15.00/0.

Field Measurement-Based System Identification and Dynamic Response Prediction of a Unique MIT Building.

PubMed

Cha, Young-Jin; Trocha, Peter; Büyüköztürk, Oral

2016-07-01

Tall buildings are ubiquitous in major cities and house the homes and workplaces of many individuals. However, relatively few studies have been carried out to study the dynamic characteristics of tall buildings based on field measurements. In this paper, the dynamic behavior of the Green Building, a unique 21-story tall structure located on the campus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA), was characterized and modeled as a simplified lumped-mass beam model (SLMM), using data from a network of accelerometers. The accelerometer network was used to record structural responses due to ambient vibrations, blast loading, and the October 16th 2012 earthquake near Hollis Center (ME, USA). Spectral and signal coherence analysis of the collected data was used to identify natural frequencies, modes, foundation rocking behavior, and structural asymmetries. A relation between foundation rocking and structural natural frequencies was also found. Natural frequencies and structural acceleration from the field measurements were compared with those predicted by the SLMM which was updated by inverse solving based on advanced multiobjective optimization methods using the measured structural responses and found to have good agreement.

Field Measurement-Based System Identification and Dynamic Response Prediction of a Unique MIT Building

PubMed Central

Cha, Young-Jin; Trocha, Peter; Büyüköztürk, Oral

2016-01-01

Tall buildings are ubiquitous in major cities and house the homes and workplaces of many individuals. However, relatively few studies have been carried out to study the dynamic characteristics of tall buildings based on field measurements. In this paper, the dynamic behavior of the Green Building, a unique 21-story tall structure located on the campus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA), was characterized and modeled as a simplified lumped-mass beam model (SLMM), using data from a network of accelerometers. The accelerometer network was used to record structural responses due to ambient vibrations, blast loading, and the October 16th 2012 earthquake near Hollis Center (ME, USA). Spectral and signal coherence analysis of the collected data was used to identify natural frequencies, modes, foundation rocking behavior, and structural asymmetries. A relation between foundation rocking and structural natural frequencies was also found. Natural frequencies and structural acceleration from the field measurements were compared with those predicted by the SLMM which was updated by inverse solving based on advanced multiobjective optimization methods using the measured structural responses and found to have good agreement. PMID:27376303

Variability in personality expression across contexts: a social network approach.

PubMed

Clifton, Allan

2014-04-01

The current research investigated how the contextual expression of personality differs across interpersonal relationships. Two related studies were conducted with college samples (Study 1: N = 52, 38 female; Study 2: N = 111, 72 female). Participants in each study completed a five-factor measure of personality and constructed a social network detailing their 30 most important relationships. Participants used a brief Five-Factor Model scale to rate their personality as they experience it when with each person in their social network. Multiple informants selected from each social network then rated the target participant's personality (Study 1: N = 227, Study 2: N = 777). Contextual personality ratings demonstrated incremental validity beyond standard global self-report in predicting specific informants' perceptions. Variability in these contextualized personality ratings was predicted by the position of the other individuals within the social network. Across both studies, participants reported being more extraverted and neurotic, and less conscientious, with more central members of their social networks. Dyadic social network-based assessments of personality provide incremental validity in understanding personality, revealing dynamic patterns of personality variability unobservable with standard assessment techniques. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modeling of cortical signals using echo state networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Hanying; Wang, Yongji; Huang, Jiangshuai

2009-10-01

Diverse modeling frameworks have been utilized with the ultimate goal of translating brain cortical signals into prediction of visible behavior. The inputs to these models are usually multidimensional neural recordings collected from relevant regions of a monkey's brain while the outputs are the associated behavior which is typically the 2-D or 3-D hand position of a primate. Here our task is to set up a proper model in order to figure out the move trajectories by input the neural signals which are simultaneously collected in the experiment. In this paper, we propose to use Echo State Networks (ESN) to map the neural firing activities into hand positions. ESN is a newly developed recurrent neural network(RNN) model. Besides its dynamic property and short term memory just as other recurrent neural networks have, it has a special echo state property which endows it with the ability to model nonlinear dynamic systems powerfully. What distinguished it from transitional recurrent neural networks most significantly is its special learning method. In this paper we train this net with a refined version of its typical training method and get a better model.

Symmetry Breaking in Space-Time Hierarchies Shapes Brain Dynamics and Behavior.

PubMed

Pillai, Ajay S; Jirsa, Viktor K

2017-06-07

In order to maintain brain function, neural activity needs to be tightly coordinated within the brain network. How this coordination is achieved and related to behavior is largely unknown. It has been previously argued that the study of the link between brain and behavior is impossible without a guiding vision. Here we propose behavioral-level concepts and mechanisms embodied as structured flows on manifold (SFM) that provide a formal description of behavior as a low-dimensional process emerging from a network's dynamics dependent on the symmetry and invariance properties of the network connectivity. Specifically, we demonstrate that the symmetry breaking of network connectivity constitutes a timescale hierarchy resulting in the emergence of an attractive functional subspace. We show that behavior emerges when appropriate conditions imposed upon the couplings are satisfied, justifying the conductance-based nature of synaptic couplings. Our concepts propose design principles for networks predicting how behavior and task rules are represented in real neural circuits and open new avenues for the analyses of neural data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Core regulatory network motif underlies the ocellar complex patterning in Drosophila melanogaster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar-Hidalgo, D.; Lemos, M. C.; Córdoba, A.

2015-03-01

During organogenesis, developmental programs governed by Gene Regulatory Networks (GRN) define the functionality, size and shape of the different constituents of living organisms. Robustness, thus, is an essential characteristic that GRNs need to fulfill in order to maintain viability and reproducibility in a species. In the present work we analyze the robustness of the patterning for the ocellar complex formation in Drosophila melanogaster fly. We have systematically pruned the GRN that drives the development of this visual system to obtain the minimum pathway able to satisfy this pattern. We found that the mechanism underlying the patterning obeys to the dynamics of a 3-nodes network motif with a double negative feedback loop fed by a morphogenetic gradient that triggers the inhibition in a French flag problem fashion. A Boolean modeling of the GRN confirms robustness in the patterning mechanism showing the same result for different network complexity levels. Interestingly, the network provides a steady state solution in the interocellar part of the patterning and an oscillatory regime in the ocelli. This theoretical result predicts that the ocellar pattern may underlie oscillatory dynamics in its genetic regulation.

Using waveform information in nonlinear data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rey, Daniel; Eldridge, Michael; Morone, Uriel; Abarbanel, Henry D. I.; Parlitz, Ulrich; Schumann-Bischoff, Jan

2014-12-01

Information in measurements of a nonlinear dynamical system can be transferred to a quantitative model of the observed system to establish its fixed parameters and unobserved state variables. After this learning period is complete, one may predict the model response to new forces and, when successful, these predictions will match additional observations. This adjustment process encounters problems when the model is nonlinear and chaotic because dynamical instability impedes the transfer of information from the data to the model when the number of measurements at each observation time is insufficient. We discuss the use of information in the waveform of the data, realized through a time delayed collection of measurements, to provide additional stability and accuracy to this search procedure. Several examples are explored, including a few familiar nonlinear dynamical systems and small networks of Colpitts oscillators.

Observing spatio-temporal dynamics of excitable media using reservoir computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmermann, Roland S.; Parlitz, Ulrich

2018-04-01

We present a dynamical observer for two dimensional partial differential equation models describing excitable media, where the required cross prediction from observed time series to not measured state variables is provided by Echo State Networks receiving input from local regions in space, only. The efficacy of this approach is demonstrated for (noisy) data from a (cubic) Barkley model and the Bueno-Orovio-Cherry-Fenton model describing chaotic electrical wave propagation in cardiac tissue.

Highly Dynamic Anion-Quadrupole Networks in Proteins.

PubMed

Kapoor, Karan; Duff, Michael R; Upadhyay, Amit; Bucci, Joel C; Saxton, Arnold M; Hinde, Robert J; Howell, Elizabeth E; Baudry, Jerome

2016-11-01

The dynamics of anion-quadrupole (or anion-π) interactions formed between negatively charged (Asp/Glu) and aromatic (Phe) side chains are for the first time computationally characterized in RmlC (Protein Data Bank entry 1EP0 ), a homodimeric epimerase. Empirical force field-based molecular dynamics simulations predict anion-quadrupole pairs and triplets (anion-anion-π and anion-π-π) are formed by the protein during the simulated trajectory, which suggests that the anion-quadrupole interactions may provide a significant contribution to the overall stability of the protein, with an average of -1.6 kcal/mol per pair. Some anion-π interactions are predicted to form during the trajectory, extending the number of anion-quadrupole interactions beyond those predicted from crystal structure analysis. At the same time, some anion-π pairs observed in the crystal structure exhibit marginal stability. Overall, most anion-π interactions alternate between an "on" state, with significantly stabilizing energies, and an "off" state, with marginal or null stabilizing energies. The way proteins possibly compensate for transient loss of anion-quadrupole interactions is characterized in the RmlC aspartate 84-phenylalanine 112 anion-quadrupole pair observed in the crystal structure. A double-mutant cycle analysis of the thermal stability suggests a possible loss of anion-π interactions compensated by variations of hydration of the residues and formation of compensating electrostatic interactions. These results suggest that near-planar anion-quadrupole pairs can exist, sometimes transiently, which may play a role in maintaining the structural stability and function of the protein, in an otherwise very dynamic interplay of a nonbonded interaction network as well as solvent effects.

Spontaneous eyelid closures link vigilance fluctuation with fMRI dynamic connectivity states

PubMed Central

Wang, Chenhao; Ong, Ju Lynn; Patanaik, Amiya; Chee, Michael W. L.

2016-01-01

Fluctuations in resting-state functional connectivity occur but their behavioral significance remains unclear, largely because correlating behavioral state with dynamic functional connectivity states (DCS) engages probes that disrupt the very behavioral state we seek to observe. Observing spontaneous eyelid closures following sleep deprivation permits nonintrusive arousal monitoring. During periods of low arousal dominated by eyelid closures, sliding-window correlation analysis uncovered a DCS associated with reduced within-network functional connectivity of default mode and dorsal/ventral attention networks, as well as reduced anticorrelation between these networks. Conversely, during periods when participants’ eyelids were wide open, a second DCS was associated with less decoupling between the visual network and higher-order cognitive networks that included dorsal/ventral attention and default mode networks. In subcortical structures, eyelid closures were associated with increased connectivity between the striatum and thalamus with the ventral attention network, and greater anticorrelation with the dorsal attention network. When applied to task-based fMRI data, these two DCS predicted interindividual differences in frequency of behavioral lapsing and intraindividual temporal fluctuations in response speed. These findings with participants who underwent a night of total sleep deprivation were replicated in an independent dataset involving partially sleep-deprived participants. Fluctuations in functional connectivity thus appear to be clearly associated with changes in arousal. PMID:27512040

Emergence of communities and diversity in social networks

PubMed Central

Han, Xiao; Cao, Shinan; Shen, Zhesi; Zhang, Boyu; Wang, Wen-Xu; Cressman, Ross

2017-01-01

Communities are common in complex networks and play a significant role in the functioning of social, biological, economic, and technological systems. Despite widespread interest in detecting community structures in complex networks and exploring the effect of communities on collective dynamics, a deep understanding of the emergence and prevalence of communities in social networks is still lacking. Addressing this fundamental problem is of paramount importance in understanding, predicting, and controlling a variety of collective behaviors in society. An elusive question is how communities with common internal properties arise in social networks with great individual diversity. Here, we answer this question using the ultimatum game, which has been a paradigm for characterizing altruism and fairness. We experimentally show that stable local communities with different internal agreements emerge spontaneously and induce social diversity into networks, which is in sharp contrast to populations with random interactions. Diverse communities and social norms come from the interaction between responders with inherent heterogeneous demands and rational proposers via local connections, where the former eventually become the community leaders. This result indicates that networks are significant in the emergence and stabilization of communities and social diversity. Our experimental results also provide valuable information about strategies for developing network models and theories of evolutionary games and social dynamics. PMID:28235785

Emergence of communities and diversity in social networks.

PubMed

Han, Xiao; Cao, Shinan; Shen, Zhesi; Zhang, Boyu; Wang, Wen-Xu; Cressman, Ross; Stanley, H Eugene

2017-03-14

Communities are common in complex networks and play a significant role in the functioning of social, biological, economic, and technological systems. Despite widespread interest in detecting community structures in complex networks and exploring the effect of communities on collective dynamics, a deep understanding of the emergence and prevalence of communities in social networks is still lacking. Addressing this fundamental problem is of paramount importance in understanding, predicting, and controlling a variety of collective behaviors in society. An elusive question is how communities with common internal properties arise in social networks with great individual diversity. Here, we answer this question using the ultimatum game, which has been a paradigm for characterizing altruism and fairness. We experimentally show that stable local communities with different internal agreements emerge spontaneously and induce social diversity into networks, which is in sharp contrast to populations with random interactions. Diverse communities and social norms come from the interaction between responders with inherent heterogeneous demands and rational proposers via local connections, where the former eventually become the community leaders. This result indicates that networks are significant in the emergence and stabilization of communities and social diversity. Our experimental results also provide valuable information about strategies for developing network models and theories of evolutionary games and social dynamics.

Application of the dynamically allocated virtual clustering management system to emulated tactical network experimentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcus, Kelvin

2014-06-01

The U.S Army Research Laboratory (ARL) has built a "Network Science Research Lab" to support research that aims to improve their ability to analyze, predict, design, and govern complex systems that interweave the social/cognitive, information, and communication network genres. Researchers at ARL and the Network Science Collaborative Technology Alliance (NS-CTA), a collaborative research alliance funded by ARL, conducted experimentation to determine if automated network monitoring tools and task-aware agents deployed within an emulated tactical wireless network could potentially increase the retrieval of relevant data from heterogeneous distributed information nodes. ARL and NS-CTA required the capability to perform this experimentation over clusters of heterogeneous nodes with emulated wireless tactical networks where each node could contain different operating systems, application sets, and physical hardware attributes. Researchers utilized the Dynamically Allocated Virtual Clustering Management System (DAVC) to address each of the infrastructure support requirements necessary in conducting their experimentation. The DAVC is an experimentation infrastructure that provides the means to dynamically create, deploy, and manage virtual clusters of heterogeneous nodes within a cloud computing environment based upon resource utilization such as CPU load, available RAM and hard disk space. The DAVC uses 802.1Q Virtual LANs (VLANs) to prevent experimentation crosstalk and to allow for complex private networks. Clusters created by the DAVC system can be utilized for software development, experimentation, and integration with existing hardware and software. The goal of this paper is to explore how ARL and the NS-CTA leveraged the DAVC to create, deploy and manage multiple experimentation clusters to support their experimentation goals.

The slow-scale linear noise approximation: an accurate, reduced stochastic description of biochemical networks under timescale separation conditions

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background It is well known that the deterministic dynamics of biochemical reaction networks can be more easily studied if timescale separation conditions are invoked (the quasi-steady-state assumption). In this case the deterministic dynamics of a large network of elementary reactions are well described by the dynamics of a smaller network of effective reactions. Each of the latter represents a group of elementary reactions in the large network and has associated with it an effective macroscopic rate law. A popular method to achieve model reduction in the presence of intrinsic noise consists of using the effective macroscopic rate laws to heuristically deduce effective probabilities for the effective reactions which then enables simulation via the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). The validity of this heuristic SSA method is a priori doubtful because the reaction probabilities for the SSA have only been rigorously derived from microscopic physics arguments for elementary reactions. Results We here obtain, by rigorous means and in closed-form, a reduced linear Langevin equation description of the stochastic dynamics of monostable biochemical networks in conditions characterized by small intrinsic noise and timescale separation. The slow-scale linear noise approximation (ssLNA), as the new method is called, is used to calculate the intrinsic noise statistics of enzyme and gene networks. The results agree very well with SSA simulations of the non-reduced network of elementary reactions. In contrast the conventional heuristic SSA is shown to overestimate the size of noise for Michaelis-Menten kinetics, considerably under-estimate the size of noise for Hill-type kinetics and in some cases even miss the prediction of noise-induced oscillations. Conclusions A new general method, the ssLNA, is derived and shown to correctly describe the statistics of intrinsic noise about the macroscopic concentrations under timescale separation conditions. The ssLNA provides a simple and accurate means of performing stochastic model reduction and hence it is expected to be of widespread utility in studying the dynamics of large noisy reaction networks, as is common in computational and systems biology. PMID:22583770

A Dynamic Bayesian Network model for long-term simulation of clinical complications in type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Marini, Simone; Trifoglio, Emanuele; Barbarini, Nicola; Sambo, Francesco; Di Camillo, Barbara; Malovini, Alberto; Manfrini, Marco; Cobelli, Claudio; Bellazzi, Riccardo

2015-10-01

The increasing prevalence of diabetes and its related complications is raising the need for effective methods to predict patient evolution and for stratifying cohorts in terms of risk of developing diabetes-related complications. In this paper, we present a novel approach to the simulation of a type 1 diabetes population, based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks, which combines literature knowledge with data mining of a rich longitudinal cohort of type 1 diabetes patients, the DCCT/EDIC study. In particular, in our approach we simulate the patient health state and complications through discretized variables. Two types of models are presented, one entirely learned from the data and the other partially driven by literature derived knowledge. The whole cohort is simulated for fifteen years, and the simulation error (i.e. for each variable, the percentage of patients predicted in the wrong state) is calculated every year on independent test data. For each variable, the population predicted in the wrong state is below 10% on both models over time. Furthermore, the distributions of real vs. simulated patients greatly overlap. Thus, the proposed models are viable tools to support decision making in type 1 diabetes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computer Simulation of Embryonic Systems: What can a ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

(1) Standard practice for assessing developmental toxicity is the observation of apical endpoints (intrauterine death, fetal growth retardation, structural malformations) in pregnant rats/rabbits following exposure during organogenesis. EPA’s computational toxicology research program (ToxCast) generated vast in vitro cellular and molecular effects data on >1858 chemicals in >600 high-throughput screening (HTS) assays. The diversity of assays has been increased for developmental toxicity with several HTS platforms, including the devTOX-quickPredict assay from Stemina Biomarker Discovery utilizing the human embryonic stem cell line (H9). Translating these HTS data into higher order-predictions of developmental toxicity is a significant challenge. Here, we address the application of computational systems models that recapitulate the kinematics of dynamical cell signaling networks (e.g., SHH, FGF, BMP, retinoids) in a CompuCell3D.org modeling environment. Examples include angiogenesis (angiodysplasia) and dysmorphogenesis. Being numerically responsive to perturbation, these models are amenable to data integration for systems Toxicology and Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs). The AOP simulation outputs predict potential phenotypes based on the in vitro HTS data ToxCast. A heuristic computational intelligence framework that recapitulates the kinematics of dynamical cell signaling networks in the embryo, together with the in vitro profiling data, produce quantitative pr

Computational Modeling and Simulation of Developmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Standard practice for assessing developmental toxicity is the observation of apical endpoints (intrauterine death, fetal growth retardation, structural malformations) in pregnant rats/rabbits following exposure during organogenesis. EPA’s computational toxicology research program (ToxCast) generated vast in vitro cellular and molecular effects data on >1858 chemicals in >600 high-throughput screening (HTS) assays. The diversity of assays has been increased for developmental toxicity with several HTS platforms, including the devTOX-quickPredict assay from Stemina Biomarker Discovery utilizing the human embryonic stem cell line (H9). Translating these HTS data into higher order-predictions of developmental toxicity is a significant challenge. Here, we address the application of computational systems models that recapitulate the kinematics of dynamical cell signaling networks (e.g., SHH, FGF, BMP, retinoids) in a CompuCell3D.org modeling environment. Examples include angiogenesis (angiodysplasia) and dysmorphogenesis. Being numerically responsive to perturbation, these models are amenable to data integration for systems Toxicology and Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs). The AOP simulation outputs predict potential phenotypes based on the in vitro HTS data ToxCast. A heuristic computational intelligence framework that recapitulates the kinematics of dynamical cell signaling networks in the embryo, together with the in vitro profiling data, produce quantitative predic

Minimum requirements for predictive pore-network modeling of solute transport in micromodels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehmani, Yashar; Tchelepi, Hamdi A.

2017-10-01

Pore-scale models are now an integral part of analyzing fluid dynamics in porous materials (e.g., rocks, soils, fuel cells). Pore network models (PNM) are particularly attractive due to their computational efficiency. However, quantitative predictions with PNM have not always been successful. We focus on single-phase transport of a passive tracer under advection-dominated regimes and compare PNM with high-fidelity direct numerical simulations (DNS) for a range of micromodel heterogeneities. We identify the minimum requirements for predictive PNM of transport. They are: (a) flow-based network extraction, i.e., discretizing the pore space based on the underlying velocity field, (b) a Lagrangian (particle tracking) simulation framework, and (c) accurate transfer of particles from one pore throat to the next. We develop novel network extraction and particle tracking PNM methods that meet these requirements. Moreover, we show that certain established PNM practices in the literature can result in first-order errors in modeling advection-dominated transport. They include: all Eulerian PNMs, networks extracted based on geometric metrics only, and flux-based nodal transfer probabilities. Preliminary results for a 3D sphere pack are also presented. The simulation inputs for this work are made public to serve as a benchmark for the research community.

Observability and Controllability of Networks: Symmetry in Representations of Brains and Controllers for Epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiff, Steven

Observability and controllability are essential concepts to the design of predictive observer models and feedback controllers of networked systems. We present a numerical and group representational framework, to quantify the observability and controllability of nonlinear networks with explicit symmetries that shows the connection between symmetries and nonlinear measures of observability and controllability. In addition to the topology of brain networks, we have advanced our ability to represent network nodes within the brain using conservation principles and more accurate biophysics that unifies the dynamics of spikes, seizures, and spreading depression. Lastly, we show how symmetries in controller design can be applied to infectious disease epidemics. NIH Grants 1R01EB014641, 1DP1HD086071.

Reconstruction of metabolic networks from high-throughput metabolite profiling data: in silico analysis of red blood cell metabolism.

PubMed

Nemenman, Ilya; Escola, G Sean; Hlavacek, William S; Unkefer, Pat J; Unkefer, Clifford J; Wall, Michael E

2007-12-01

We investigate the ability of algorithms developed for reverse engineering of transcriptional regulatory networks to reconstruct metabolic networks from high-throughput metabolite profiling data. For benchmarking purposes, we generate synthetic metabolic profiles based on a well-established model for red blood cell metabolism. A variety of data sets are generated, accounting for different properties of real metabolic networks, such as experimental noise, metabolite correlations, and temporal dynamics. These data sets are made available online. We use ARACNE, a mainstream algorithm for reverse engineering of transcriptional regulatory networks from gene expression data, to predict metabolic interactions from these data sets. We find that the performance of ARACNE on metabolic data is comparable to that on gene expression data.

Active Control of Wind-Tunnel Model Aeroelastic Response Using Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, Robert C.

2000-01-01

NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA 23681 Under a joint research and development effort conducted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and The Boeing Company (formerly McDonnell Douglas) three neural-network based control systems were developed and tested. The control systems were experimentally evaluated using a transonic wind-tunnel model in the Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel. One system used a neural network to schedule flutter suppression control laws, another employed a neural network in a predictive control scheme, and the third employed a neural network in an inverse model control scheme. All three of these control schemes successfully suppressed flutter to or near the limits of the testing apparatus, and represent the first experimental applications of neural networks to flutter suppression. This paper will summarize the findings of this project.

Higher Dimensional Meta-State Analysis Reveals Reduced Resting fMRI Connectivity Dynamism in Schizophrenia Patients.

PubMed

Miller, Robyn L; Yaesoubi, Maziar; Turner, Jessica A; Mathalon, Daniel; Preda, Adrian; Pearlson, Godfrey; Adali, Tulay; Calhoun, Vince D

2016-01-01

Resting-state functional brain imaging studies of network connectivity have long assumed that functional connections are stationary on the timescale of a typical scan. Interest in moving beyond this simplifying assumption has emerged only recently. The great hope is that training the right lens on time-varying properties of whole-brain network connectivity will shed additional light on previously concealed brain activation patterns characteristic of serious neurological or psychiatric disorders. We present evidence that multiple explicitly dynamical properties of time-varying whole-brain network connectivity are strongly associated with schizophrenia, a complex mental illness whose symptomatic presentation can vary enormously across subjects. As with so much brain-imaging research, a central challenge for dynamic network connectivity lies in determining transformations of the data that both reduce its dimensionality and expose features that are strongly predictive of important population characteristics. Our paper introduces an elegant, simple method of reducing and organizing data around which a large constellation of mutually informative and intuitive dynamical analyses can be performed. This framework combines a discrete multidimensional data-driven representation of connectivity space with four core dynamism measures computed from large-scale properties of each subject's trajectory, ie., properties not identifiable with any specific moment in time and therefore reasonable to employ in settings lacking inter-subject time-alignment, such as resting-state functional imaging studies. Our analysis exposes pronounced differences between schizophrenia patients (Nsz = 151) and healthy controls (Nhc = 163). Time-varying whole-brain network connectivity patterns are found to be markedly less dynamically active in schizophrenia patients, an effect that is even more pronounced in patients with high levels of hallucinatory behavior. To the best of our knowledge this is the first demonstration that high-level dynamic properties of whole-brain connectivity, generic enough to be commensurable under many decompositions of time-varying connectivity data, exhibit robust and systematic differences between schizophrenia patients and healthy controls.

Higher Dimensional Meta-State Analysis Reveals Reduced Resting fMRI Connectivity Dynamism in Schizophrenia Patients

PubMed Central

Miller, Robyn L.; Yaesoubi, Maziar; Turner, Jessica A.; Mathalon, Daniel; Preda, Adrian; Pearlson, Godfrey; Adali, Tulay; Calhoun, Vince D.

2016-01-01

Resting-state functional brain imaging studies of network connectivity have long assumed that functional connections are stationary on the timescale of a typical scan. Interest in moving beyond this simplifying assumption has emerged only recently. The great hope is that training the right lens on time-varying properties of whole-brain network connectivity will shed additional light on previously concealed brain activation patterns characteristic of serious neurological or psychiatric disorders. We present evidence that multiple explicitly dynamical properties of time-varying whole-brain network connectivity are strongly associated with schizophrenia, a complex mental illness whose symptomatic presentation can vary enormously across subjects. As with so much brain-imaging research, a central challenge for dynamic network connectivity lies in determining transformations of the data that both reduce its dimensionality and expose features that are strongly predictive of important population characteristics. Our paper introduces an elegant, simple method of reducing and organizing data around which a large constellation of mutually informative and intuitive dynamical analyses can be performed. This framework combines a discrete multidimensional data-driven representation of connectivity space with four core dynamism measures computed from large-scale properties of each subject’s trajectory, ie., properties not identifiable with any specific moment in time and therefore reasonable to employ in settings lacking inter-subject time-alignment, such as resting-state functional imaging studies. Our analysis exposes pronounced differences between schizophrenia patients (Nsz = 151) and healthy controls (Nhc = 163). Time-varying whole-brain network connectivity patterns are found to be markedly less dynamically active in schizophrenia patients, an effect that is even more pronounced in patients with high levels of hallucinatory behavior. To the best of our knowledge this is the first demonstration that high-level dynamic properties of whole-brain connectivity, generic enough to be commensurable under many decompositions of time-varying connectivity data, exhibit robust and systematic differences between schizophrenia patients and healthy controls. PMID:26981625