Why anthropic reasoning cannot predict Lambda.

PubMed

Starkman, Glenn D; Trotta, Roberto

2006-11-17

We revisit anthropic arguments purporting to explain the measured value of the cosmological constant. We argue that different ways of assigning probabilities to candidate universes lead to totally different anthropic predictions. As an explicit example, we show that weighting different universes by the total number of possible observations leads to an extremely small probability for observing a value of Lambda equal to or greater than what we now measure. We conclude that anthropic reasoning within the framework of probability as frequency is ill-defined and that in the absence of a fundamental motivation for selecting one weighting scheme over another the anthropic principle cannot be used to explain the value of Lambda, nor, likely, any other physical parameters.

Observational consistency and future predictions for a 3.5 keV ALP to photon line

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alvarez, Pedro D.; Conlon, Joseph P.; Day, Francesca V.

Motivated by the possibility of explaining the 3.5 keV line through dark matter decaying to axion-like particles that subsequently convert to photons, we study ALP-photon conversion for sightlines passing within 50 pc of the galactic centre. Conversion depends on the galactic centre magnetic field which is highly uncertain. For fields at low or mid-range of observational estimates (10–100 μG), no observable signal is possible. For fields at the high range of observational estimates (a pervasive poloidal mG field over the central 150 pc) it is possible to generate sufficient signal to explain recent observations of a 3.5 keV line inmore » the galactic centre. In this scenario, the galactic centre line signal comes predominantly from the region with  z > 20 pc, reconciling the results from the Chandra and XMM-Newton X-ray telescopes. The dark matter to ALP to photon scenario also naturally predicts the non-observation of the 3.5 keV line in stacked galaxy spectra. We further explore predictions for the line flux in galaxies and suggest a set of galaxies that is optimised for observing the 3.5 keV line in this model.« less

Observational consistency and future predictions for a 3.5 keV ALP to photon line

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alvarez, Pedro D.; Conlon, Joseph P.; Day, Francesca V.

Motivated by the possibility of explaining the 3.5 keV line through dark matter decaying to axion-like particles that subsequently convert to photons, we study ALP-photon conversion for sightlines passing within 50 pc of the galactic centre. Conversion depends on the galactic centre magnetic field which is highly uncertain. For fields at low or mid-range of observational estimates (10–100 μG), no observable signal is possible. For fields at the high range of observational estimates (a pervasive poloidal mG field over the central 150 pc) it is possible to generate sufficient signal to explain recent observations of a 3.5 keV line inmore » the galactic centre. In this scenario, the galactic centre line signal comes predominantly from the region with z>20pc, reconciling the results from the Chandra and XMM-Newton X-ray telescopes. The dark matter to ALP to photon scenario also naturally predicts the non-observation of the 3.5 keV line in stacked galaxy spectra. We further explore predictions for the line flux in galaxies and suggest a set of galaxies that is optimised for observing the 3.5 keV line in this model.« less

Predictable and predictive emotions: explaining cheap signals and trust re-extension

PubMed Central

Schniter, Eric; Sheremeta, Roman M.

2014-01-01

Despite normative predictions from economics and biology, unrelated strangers will often develop the trust necessary to reap gains from one-shot economic exchange opportunities. This appears to be especially true when declared intentions and emotions can be cheaply communicated. Perhaps even more puzzling to economists and biologists is the observation that anonymous and unrelated individuals, known to have breached trust, often make effective use of cheap signals, such as promises and apologies, to encourage trust re-extension. We used a pair of trust games with one-way communication and an emotion survey to investigate the role of emotions in regulating the propensity to message, apologize, re-extend trust, and demonstrate trustworthiness. This design allowed us to observe the endogenous emergence and natural distribution of trust-relevant behaviors, remedial strategies used by promise-breakers, their effects on behavior, and subsequent outcomes. We found that emotions triggered by interaction outcomes are predictable and also predict subsequent apology and trust re-extension. The role of emotions in behavioral regulation helps explain why messages are produced, when they can be trusted, and when trust will be re-extended. PMID:25477797

Predictable and predictive emotions: explaining cheap signals and trust re-extension.

PubMed

Schniter, Eric; Sheremeta, Roman M

2014-01-01

Despite normative predictions from economics and biology, unrelated strangers will often develop the trust necessary to reap gains from one-shot economic exchange opportunities. This appears to be especially true when declared intentions and emotions can be cheaply communicated. Perhaps even more puzzling to economists and biologists is the observation that anonymous and unrelated individuals, known to have breached trust, often make effective use of cheap signals, such as promises and apologies, to encourage trust re-extension. We used a pair of trust games with one-way communication and an emotion survey to investigate the role of emotions in regulating the propensity to message, apologize, re-extend trust, and demonstrate trustworthiness. This design allowed us to observe the endogenous emergence and natural distribution of trust-relevant behaviors, remedial strategies used by promise-breakers, their effects on behavior, and subsequent outcomes. We found that emotions triggered by interaction outcomes are predictable and also predict subsequent apology and trust re-extension. The role of emotions in behavioral regulation helps explain why messages are produced, when they can be trusted, and when trust will be re-extended.

Is the Ratio of Observed X-ray Luminosity to Bolometric Luminosity in Early-type Stars Really a Constant?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waldron, W. L.

1985-01-01

The observed X-ray emission from early-type stars can be explained by the recombination stellar wind model (or base coronal model). The model predicts that the true X-ray luminosity from the base coronal zone can be 10 to 1000 times greater than the observed X-ray luminosity. From the models, scaling laws were found for the true and observed X-ray luminosities. These scaling laws predict that the ratio of the observed X-ray luminosity to the bolometric luminosity is functionally dependent on several stellar parameters. When applied to several other O and B stars, it is found that the values of the predicted ratio agree very well with the observed values.

Predicting Motivation: Computational Models of PFC Can Explain Neural Coding of Motivation and Effort-based Decision-making in Health and Disease.

PubMed

Vassena, Eliana; Deraeve, James; Alexander, William H

2017-10-01

Human behavior is strongly driven by the pursuit of rewards. In daily life, however, benefits mostly come at a cost, often requiring that effort be exerted to obtain potential benefits. Medial PFC (MPFC) and dorsolateral PFC (DLPFC) are frequently implicated in the expectation of effortful control, showing increased activity as a function of predicted task difficulty. Such activity partially overlaps with expectation of reward and has been observed both during decision-making and during task preparation. Recently, novel computational frameworks have been developed to explain activity in these regions during cognitive control, based on the principle of prediction and prediction error (predicted response-outcome [PRO] model [Alexander, W. H., & Brown, J. W. Medial prefrontal cortex as an action-outcome predictor. Nature Neuroscience, 14, 1338-1344, 2011], hierarchical error representation [HER] model [Alexander, W. H., & Brown, J. W. Hierarchical error representation: A computational model of anterior cingulate and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Neural Computation, 27, 2354-2410, 2015]). Despite the broad explanatory power of these models, it is not clear whether they can also accommodate effects related to the expectation of effort observed in MPFC and DLPFC. Here, we propose a translation of these computational frameworks to the domain of effort-based behavior. First, we discuss how the PRO model, based on prediction error, can explain effort-related activity in MPFC, by reframing effort-based behavior in a predictive context. We propose that MPFC activity reflects monitoring of motivationally relevant variables (such as effort and reward), by coding expectations and discrepancies from such expectations. Moreover, we derive behavioral and neural model-based predictions for healthy controls and clinical populations with impairments of motivation. Second, we illustrate the possible translation to effort-based behavior of the HER model, an extended version of PRO model based on hierarchical error prediction, developed to explain MPFC-DLPFC interactions. We derive behavioral predictions that describe how effort and reward information is coded in PFC and how changing the configuration of such environmental information might affect decision-making and task performance involving motivation.

Magnitude and frequency variations of vector-borne infection outbreaks using the Ross-Macdonald model: explaining and predicting outbreaks of dengue fever.

PubMed

Amaku, M; Azevedo, F; Burattini, M N; Coelho, G E; Coutinho, F A B; Greenhalgh, D; Lopez, L F; Motitsuki, R S; Wilder-Smith, A; Massad, E

2016-08-19

The classical Ross-Macdonald model is often utilized to model vector-borne infections; however, this model fails on several fronts. First, using measured (or estimated) parameters, which values are accepted from the literature, the model predicts a much greater number of cases than what is usually observed. Second, the model predicts a single large outbreak that is followed by decades of much smaller outbreaks, which is not consistent with what is observed. Usually towns or cities report a number of recurrences for many years, even when environmental changes cannot explain the disappearance of the infection between the peaks. In this paper, we continue to examine the pitfalls in modelling this class of infections, and explain that, if properly used, the Ross-Macdonald model works and can be used to understand the patterns of epidemics and even, to some extent, be used to make predictions. We model several outbreaks of dengue fever and show that the variable pattern of yearly recurrence (or its absence) can be understood and explained by a simple Ross-Macdonald model modified to take into account human movement across a range of neighbourhoods within a city. In addition, we analyse the effect of seasonal variations in the parameters that determine the number, longevity and biting behaviour of mosquitoes. Based on the size of the first outbreak, we show that it is possible to estimate the proportion of the remaining susceptible individuals and to predict the likelihood and magnitude of the eventual subsequent outbreaks. This approach is described based on actual dengue outbreaks with different recurrence patterns from some Brazilian regions.

Seeing what you want to see: priors for one's own actions represent exaggerated expectations of success

PubMed Central

Wolpe, Noham; Wolpert, Daniel M.; Rowe, James B.

2014-01-01

People perceive the consequences of their own actions differently to how they perceive other sensory events. A large body of psychology research has shown that people also consistently overrate their own performance relative to others, yet little is known about how these “illusions of superiority” are normally maintained. Here we examined the visual perception of the sensory consequences of self-generated and observed goal-directed actions. Across a series of visuomotor tasks, we found that the perception of the sensory consequences of one's own actions is more biased toward success relative to the perception of observed actions. Using Bayesian models, we show that this bias could be explained by priors that represent exaggerated predictions of success. The degree of exaggeration of priors was unaffected by learning, but was correlated with individual differences in trait optimism. In contrast, when observing these actions, priors represented more accurate predictions of the actual performance. The results suggest that the brain internally represents optimistic predictions for one's own actions. Such exaggerated predictions bind the sensory consequences of our own actions with our intended goal, explaining how it is that when acting we tend to see what we want to see. PMID:25018710

Learning Science through the PDEODE Teaching Strategy: Helping Students Make Sense of Everyday Situations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Costu, Bayram

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate effectiveness of PDEODE (Predict-Discuss-Explain-Observe-Discuss-Explain) teaching strategy in helping students make sense of everyday situations. For this, condensation concept was chosen among many science concepts since it is related to many everyday-life events. Forty-eight eleventh graders students…

Investigating the Effectiveness of an Active Learning Based-Interactive Conceptual Instruction (ALBICI) on Electric Field Concept

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samsudin, Achmad; Suhandi, Andi; Rusdiana, Dadi; Kaniawati, Ida; Costu, Bayram

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop an Active Learning Based-Interactive Conceptual Instruction (ALBICI) model through PDEODE*E tasks (stands for Predict, Discuss, Explain, Observe, Discuss, Explore, and Explain) for promoting conceptual change and investigating its effectiveness of pre-service physics teachers' understanding on electric field…

Galaxy Formation At Extreme Redshifts: Semi-Analytic Model Predictions And Challenges For Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yung, L. Y. Aaron; Somerville, Rachel S.

2017-06-01

The well-established Santa Cruz semi-analytic galaxy formation framework has been shown to be quite successful at explaining observations in the local Universe, as well as making predictions for low-redshift observations. Recently, metallicity-based gas partitioning and H2-based star formation recipes have been implemented in our model, replacing the legacy cold-gas based recipe. We then use our revised model to explore the high-redshift Universe and make predictions up to z = 15. Although our model is only calibrated to observations from the local universe, our predictions seem to match incredibly well with mid- to high-redshift observational constraints available-to-date, including rest-frame UV luminosity functions and the reionization history as constrained by CMB and IGM observations. We provide predictions for individual and statistical galaxy properties at a wide range of redshifts (z = 4 - 15), including objects that are too far or too faint to be detected with current facilities. And using our model predictions, we also provide forecasted luminosity functions and other observables for upcoming studies with JWST.

Old models explain new observations of butterfly movement at patch edges.

PubMed

Crone, Elizabeth E; Schultz, Cheryl B

2008-07-01

Understanding movement in heterogeneous environments is central to predicting how landscape changes affect animal populations. Several recent studies point out an intriguing and distinctive looping behavior by butterflies at habitat patch edges and hypothesize that this behavior requires a new framework for analyzing animal movement. We show that this looping behavior could be caused by a longstanding movement model, biased correlated random walk, with bias toward habitat patches. The ability of this longstanding model to explain recent observations reinforces the point that butterflies respond to habitat heterogeneity and do not move randomly through heterogeneous environments. We discuss the implications of different movement models for predicting butterfly responses to landscape change, and our rationale for retaining longstanding movement models, rather than developing new modeling frameworks for looping behavior at patch edges.

Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models: 2. Laboratory earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Beeler, Nicholas M.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Lockner, David A.; Savage, Heather M.

2012-02-01

The behavior of individual stick-slip events observed in three different laboratory experimental configurations is better explained by a "memoryless" earthquake model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. We make similar findings in the companion manuscript for the behavior of natural repeating earthquakes. Taken together, these results allow us to conclude that the predictions of a characteristic earthquake model that assumes either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval should be preferred to the predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models for all earthquakes. Given that the fixed slip and recurrence models are the preferred models for all of the experiments we examine, we infer that in an event-to-event sense the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models does not explain earthquake behavior. This does not indicate that the elastic rebound model should be rejected in a long-term-sense, but it should be rejected for short-term predictions. The time- and slip-predictable models likely offer worse predictions of earthquake behavior because they rely on assumptions that are too simple to explain the behavior of earthquakes. Specifically, the time-predictable model assumes a constant failure threshold and the slip-predictable model assumes that there is a constant minimum stress. There is experimental and field evidence that these assumptions are not valid for all earthquakes.

PeV Neutrinos Observed by IceCube from Cores of Active Galactic Nuclei

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stecker, Floyd W.

2013-01-01

I show that the high energy neutrino flux predicted to arise from active galactic nuclei cores can explain the PeV neutrinos detected by IceCube without conflicting with the constraints from the observed extragalactic cosmic-ray and gamma-ray backgrounds.

Explaining formation of Astronomical Jets using Dynamic Universe Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naga Parameswara Gupta, Satyavarapu

2016-07-01

Astronomical jets are observed from the centres of many Galaxies including our own Milkyway. The formation of such jet is explained using SITA simulations of Dynamic Universe Model. For this purpose the path traced by a test neutron is calculated and depicted using a set up of one densemass of the mass equivalent to mass of Galaxy center, 90 stars with similar masses of stars near Galaxy center, mass equivalents of 23 Globular Cluster groups, 16 Milkyway parts, Andromeda and Triangulum Galaxies at appropriate distances. Five different kinds of theoretical simulations gave positive results The path travelled by this test neutron was found to be an astronomical jet emerging from Galaxy center. This is another result from Dynamic Universe Model. It solves new problems like a. Variable Mass Rocket Trajectory Problem b. Explaining Very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations c. Astronomical jets observed from Milkyway Center d. Prediction of Blue shifted Galaxies e. Explaining Pioneer Anomaly f. Prediction of New Horizons satellite trajectory etc. Dynamic Universe Model never reduces to General relativity on any condition. It uses a different type of mathematics based on Newtonian physics. This mathematics used here is simple and straightforward. As there are no differential equations present in Dynamic Universe Model, the set of equations give single solution in x y z Cartesian coordinates for every point mass for every time step

Mesoscopic model of actin-based propulsion.

PubMed

Zhu, Jie; Mogilner, Alex

2012-01-01

Two theoretical models dominate current understanding of actin-based propulsion: microscopic polymerization ratchet model predicts that growing and writhing actin filaments generate forces and movements, while macroscopic elastic propulsion model suggests that deformation and stress of growing actin gel are responsible for the propulsion. We examine both experimentally and computationally the 2D movement of ellipsoidal beads propelled by actin tails and show that neither of the two models can explain the observed bistability of the orientation of the beads. To explain the data, we develop a 2D hybrid mesoscopic model by reconciling these two models such that individual actin filaments undergoing nucleation, elongation, attachment, detachment and capping are embedded into the boundary of a node-spring viscoelastic network representing the macroscopic actin gel. Stochastic simulations of this 'in silico' actin network show that the combined effects of the macroscopic elastic deformation and microscopic ratchets can explain the observed bistable orientation of the actin-propelled ellipsoidal beads. To test the theory further, we analyze observed distribution of the curvatures of the trajectories and show that the hybrid model's predictions fit the data. Finally, we demonstrate that the model can explain both concave-up and concave-down force-velocity relations for growing actin networks depending on the characteristic time scale and network recoil. To summarize, we propose that both microscopic polymerization ratchets and macroscopic stresses of the deformable actin network are responsible for the force and movement generation.

Ideology and gender: observers' system justification and targets' gender as interactive predictors of citizenship expectations.

PubMed

Chiaburu, Dan S; Harris, T Brad; Smith, Troy A

2014-01-01

We integrate system justification and social role theory to explain how observers' system justification and target employees' gender interact to predict observers' expectations of targets' sportsmanship citizenship behaviors. In contrast with social role theory predictions, observers did not expect greater levels of sportsmanship from women compared to men. Yet observers expected more sportsmanship from women (a) when observers were ideologically motivated by gender-specific beliefs (gender-specific system justification; Study 1) and (b) when system justification was cued experimentally (Study 2). A heretofore-unexamined aspect, observers' ideology, modifies their expectations of sportsmanship citizenship across target genders. This has implications for system justification, social role, and organizational citizenship theoretical perspectives.

Examining INM Accuracy Using Empirical Sound Monitoring and Radar Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Nicholas P.; Anderson, Grant S.; Horonjeff, Richard D.; Kimura, Sebastian; Miller, Jonathan S.; Senzig, David A.; Thompson, Richard H.; Shepherd, Kevin P. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Aircraft noise measurements were made using noise monitoring systems at Denver International and Minneapolis St. Paul Airports. Measured sound exposure levels for a large number of operations of a wide range of aircraft types were compared with predictions using the FAA's Integrated Noise Model. In general it was observed that measured levels exceeded the predicted levels by a significant margin. These differences varied according to the type of aircraft and also depended on the distance from the aircraft. Many of the assumptions which affect the predicted sound levels were examined but none were able to fully explain the observed differences.

Intermittent control: a computational theory of human control.

PubMed

Gawthrop, Peter; Loram, Ian; Lakie, Martin; Gollee, Henrik

2011-02-01

The paradigm of continuous control using internal models has advanced understanding of human motor control. However, this paradigm ignores some aspects of human control, including intermittent feedback, serial ballistic control, triggered responses and refractory periods. It is shown that event-driven intermittent control provides a framework to explain the behaviour of the human operator under a wider range of conditions than continuous control. Continuous control is included as a special case, but sampling, system matched hold, an intermittent predictor and an event trigger allow serial open-loop trajectories using intermittent feedback. The implementation here may be described as "continuous observation, intermittent action". Beyond explaining unimodal regulation distributions in common with continuous control, these features naturally explain refractoriness and bimodal stabilisation distributions observed in double stimulus tracking experiments and quiet standing, respectively. Moreover, given that human control systems contain significant time delays, a biological-cybernetic rationale favours intermittent over continuous control: intermittent predictive control is computationally less demanding than continuous predictive control. A standard continuous-time predictive control model of the human operator is used as the underlying design method for an event-driven intermittent controller. It is shown that when event thresholds are small and sampling is regular, the intermittent controller can masquerade as the underlying continuous-time controller and thus, under these conditions, the continuous-time and intermittent controller cannot be distinguished. This explains why the intermittent control hypothesis is consistent with the continuous control hypothesis for certain experimental conditions.

A Case for a Process Approach: The Warwick Experience.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Screen, P.

1988-01-01

Describes the cyclical nature of a problem-solving sequence produced from observing children involved in the process. Discusses the generic qualities of science: (1) observing; (2) inferring; (3) classifying; (4) predicting; (5) controlling variables; and (6) hypothesizing. Explains the processes in use and advantages of a process-led course. (RT)

PEOR--Engaging Students in Demonstrations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonello, Charles; Scaife, Jon

2009-01-01

Demonstrations are a core part of science teaching. In 1980 a three-part assessment method using demonstrating was proposed. Known as DOE this consisted of demonstration, observation and explanation. DOE quickly evolved into POE: predict, observe, explain. In the light of experiences with POE and insights from constructivist theory we set out in…

The Effectiveness of a Conceptually Focused Out-of-Class Intervention on Promoting Learning of Electricity by Township Learners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stott, Angela Elisabeth

2017-01-01

In this article I report a study into the effectiveness of a 6 week intervention aimed at promoting learning of electricity concepts by 91 Grade 8 and 9 township learners. Each week I taught these learners for an hour and they engaged with educational software for another hour. Analogy usage and predict-explain-observe-explain pedagogy were…

Bounce—the answer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Featonby, David

2018-05-01

In my article (Featonby 2018 Phys. Educ. 53 027002) Three experiments were presented which involved dropping objects and observing the “bounce”. The question was, for each object, can you predict what might happen and explain the differences.

The Formation and Physical Origin of Highly Ionized Cooling Gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordoloi, Rongmon; Wagner, Alexander Y.; Heckman, Timothy M.; Norman, Colin A.

2017-10-01

We present a simple model that explains the origin of warm, diffuse gas seen primarily as highly ionized absorption-line systems in the spectra of background sources. We predict the observed column densities of several highly ionized transitions such as O VI, O vii, Ne viii, N v, and Mg x, and we present a unified comparison of the model predictions with absorption lines seen in the Milky Way disk, Milky Way halo, starburst galaxies, the circumgalactic medium, and the intergalactic medium at low and high redshifts. We show that diffuse gas seen in such diverse environments can be simultaneously explained by a simple model of radiatively cooling gas. We show that most such absorption-line systems are consistent with being collisionally ionized, and we estimate the maximum-likelihood temperature of the gas in each observation. This model satisfactorily explains why O VI is regularly observed around star-forming low-z L* galaxies, and why N v is rarely seen around the same galaxies. We further present some consequences of this model in quantifying the dynamics of the cooling gas around galaxies and predict the shock velocities associated with such flows. A unique strength of this model is that while it has only one free (but physically well-constrained) parameter, it nevertheless successfully reproduces the available data on O VI absorbers in the interstellar, circumgalactic, intragroup, and intergalactic media, as well as the available data on other absorption lines from highly ionized species.

A Bushelful of Science.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van De Walle, Carol

1988-01-01

Describes a multidisciplinary unit which uses 12 varieties of apples. Explains activities for observing, predicting decay, art and science, the process of fermentation, and group and individual projects. Information on description of apples and labeled diagrams are included. (RT)

Dual Processes in Decision Making and Developmental Neuroscience: A Fuzzy-Trace Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reyna, Valerie F.; Brainerd, Charles J.

2011-01-01

From Piaget to the present, traditional and dual-process theories have predicted improvement in reasoning from childhood to adulthood, and improvement has been observed. However, developmental reversals--that reasoning biases emerge with development--have also been observed in a growing list of paradigms. We explain how fuzzy-trace theory predicts…

Formative Assessment Probes: Using the P-E-O Technique

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keeley, Page

2013-01-01

This article describes how observing whether objects sink or float in water using the P-E-O (Predict, Explain, and Observe) technique is an elementary precursor to developing explanations in later grades that involve an understanding of density and buoyancy. Beginning as early as preschool, elementary students engage in activities that encourage…

The Child as Econometrician: A Rational Model of Preference Understanding in Children

PubMed Central

Lucas, Christopher G.; Griffiths, Thomas L.; Xu, Fei; Fawcett, Christine; Gopnik, Alison; Kushnir, Tamar; Markson, Lori; Hu, Jane

2014-01-01

Recent work has shown that young children can learn about preferences by observing the choices and emotional reactions of other people, but there is no unified account of how this learning occurs. We show that a rational model, built on ideas from economics and computer science, explains the behavior of children in several experiments, and offers new predictions as well. First, we demonstrate that when children use statistical information to learn about preferences, their inferences match the predictions of a simple econometric model. Next, we show that this same model can explain children's ability to learn that other people have preferences similar to or different from their own and use that knowledge to reason about the desirability of hidden objects. Finally, we use the model to explain a developmental shift in preference understanding. PMID:24667309

The child as econometrician: a rational model of preference understanding in children.

PubMed

Lucas, Christopher G; Griffiths, Thomas L; Xu, Fei; Fawcett, Christine; Gopnik, Alison; Kushnir, Tamar; Markson, Lori; Hu, Jane

2014-01-01

Recent work has shown that young children can learn about preferences by observing the choices and emotional reactions of other people, but there is no unified account of how this learning occurs. We show that a rational model, built on ideas from economics and computer science, explains the behavior of children in several experiments, and offers new predictions as well. First, we demonstrate that when children use statistical information to learn about preferences, their inferences match the predictions of a simple econometric model. Next, we show that this same model can explain children's ability to learn that other people have preferences similar to or different from their own and use that knowledge to reason about the desirability of hidden objects. Finally, we use the model to explain a developmental shift in preference understanding.

Predicting the spread of all invasive forest pests in the United States

Treesearch

Emma J. Hudgins; Andrew M. Liebhold; Brian Leung; Regan Early

2017-01-01

We tested whether a general spread model could capture macroecological patterns across all damaging invasive forest pests in the United States. We showed that a common constant dispersal kernel model, simulated from the discovery date, explained 67.94% of the variation in range size across all pests, and had 68.00% locational accuracy between predicted and observed...

Tree morphologic plasticity explains deviation from metabolic scaling theory in semi-arid conifer forests, southwestern USA

Treesearch

Tyson L. Swetnam; Christopher D. O' Connor; Ann M. Lynch

2016-01-01

A significant concern about Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST) in real forests relates to consistent differences between the values of power law scaling exponents of tree primary size measures used to estimate mass and those predicted by MST. Here we consider why observed scaling exponents for diameter and height relationships deviate from MST predictions across...

Probabilistic prediction of barrier-island response to hurricanes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.

2012-01-01

Prediction of barrier-island response to hurricane attack is important for assessing the vulnerability of communities, infrastructure, habitat, and recreational assets to the impacts of storm surge, waves, and erosion. We have demonstrated that a conceptual model intended to make qualitative predictions of the type of beach response to storms (e.g., beach erosion, dune erosion, dune overwash, inundation) can be reformulated in a Bayesian network to make quantitative predictions of the morphologic response. In an application of this approach at Santa Rosa Island, FL, predicted dune-crest elevation changes in response to Hurricane Ivan explained about 20% to 30% of the observed variance. An extended Bayesian network based on the original conceptual model, which included dune elevations, storm surge, and swash, but with the addition of beach and dune widths as input variables, showed improved skill compared to the original model, explaining 70% of dune elevation change variance and about 60% of dune and shoreline position change variance. This probabilistic approach accurately represented prediction uncertainty (measured with the log likelihood ratio), and it outperformed the baseline prediction (i.e., the prior distribution based on the observations). Finally, sensitivity studies demonstrated that degrading the resolution of the Bayesian network or removing data from the calibration process reduced the skill of the predictions by 30% to 40%. The reduction in skill did not change conclusions regarding the relative importance of the input variables, and the extended model's skill always outperformed the original model.

How Do Evergreens Stay Ever-Green? Hands on Science.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kepler, Lynne

1993-01-01

Provides instructional techniques, using samples from evergreen trees, to explain to school children the concept of adaptation. The techniques help children develop skills in observation, classification, communication, inferring, and predicting. A teacher's reproducible is included. (GLR)

Prediction of episodic acidification in North-eastern USA: An empirical/mechanistic approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, T.D.; Tranter, M.; Wigington, P.J.; Eshleman, K.N.; Peters, N.E.; Van Sickle, J.; DeWalle, David R.; Murdoch, Peter S.

1999-01-01

Observations from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Episodic Response Project (ERP) in the North-eastern United States are used to develop an empirical/mechanistic scheme for prediction of the minimum values of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) during episodes. An acidification episode is defined as a hydrological event during which ANC decreases. The pre-episode ANC is used to index the antecedent condition, and the stream flow increase reflects how much the relative contributions of sources of waters change during the episode. As much as 92% of the total variation in the minimum ANC in individual catchments can be explained (with levels of explanation >70% for nine of the 13 streams) by a multiple linear regression model that includes pre-episode ANC and change in discharge as independent variable. The predictive scheme is demonstrated to be regionally robust, with the regional variance explained ranging from 77 to 83%. The scheme is not successful for each ERP stream, and reasons are suggested for the individual failures. The potential for applying the predictive scheme to other watersheds is demonstrated by testing the model with data from the Panola Mountain Research Watershed in the South-eastern United States, where the variance explained by the model was 74%. The model can also be utilized to assess 'chemically new' and 'chemically old' water sources during acidification episodes.Observations from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Episodic Response Project (ERP) in the Northeastern United States are used to develop an empirical/mechanistic scheme for prediction of the minimum values of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) during episodes. An acidification episode is defined as a hydrological event during which ANC decreases. The pre-episode ANC is used to index the antecedent condition, and the stream flow increase reflects how much the relative contributions of sources of waters change during the episode. As much as 92% of the total variation in the minimum ANC in individual catchments can be explained (with levels of explanation >70% for nine of the 13 streams) by a multiple linear regression model that includes pre-episode ANC and change in discharge as independent variables. The predictive scheme is demonstrated to be regionally robust, with the regional variance explained ranging from 77 to 83%. The scheme is not successful for each ERP stream, and reasons are suggested for the individual failures. The potential for applying the predictive scheme to other watersheds is demonstrated by testing the model with data from the Panola Mountain Research Watershed in the South-eastern United States, where the variance explained by the model was 74%. The model can also be utilized to assess `chemically new' and `chemically old' water sources during acidification episodes.

Modelling a model?!! Prediction of observed and calculated daily pan evaporation in New Mexico, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beriro, D. J.; Abrahart, R. J.; Nathanail, C. P.

2012-04-01

Data-driven modelling is most commonly used to develop predictive models that will simulate natural processes. This paper, in contrast, uses Gene Expression Programming (GEP) to construct two alternative models of different pan evaporation estimations by means of symbolic regression: a simulator, a model of a real-world process developed on observed records, and an emulator, an imitator of some other model developed on predicted outputs calculated by that source model. The solutions are compared and contrasted for the purposes of determining whether any substantial differences exist between either option. This analysis will address recent arguments over the impact of using downloaded hydrological modelling datasets originating from different initial sources i.e. observed or calculated. These differences can be easily be overlooked by modellers, resulting in a model of a model developed on estimations derived from deterministic empirical equations and producing exceptionally high goodness-of-fit. This paper uses different lines-of-evidence to evaluate model output and in so doing paves the way for a new protocol in machine learning applications. Transparent modelling tools such as symbolic regression offer huge potential for explaining stochastic processes, however, the basic tenets of data quality and recourse to first principles with regard to problem understanding should not be trivialised. GEP is found to be an effective tool for the prediction of observed and calculated pan evaporation, with results supported by an understanding of the records, and of the natural processes concerned, evaluated using one-at-a-time response function sensitivity analysis. The results show that both architectures and response functions are very similar, implying that previously observed differences in goodness-of-fit can be explained by whether models are applied to observed or calculated data.

The Effect of 3D Computer Modeling and Observation-Based Instruction on the Conceptual Change regarding Basic Concepts of Astronomy in Elementary School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kucukozer, Huseyin; Korkusuz, M. Emin; Kucukozer, H. Asuman; Yurumezoglu, Kemal

2009-01-01

This study has examined the impact of teaching certain basic concepts of astronomy through a predict-observe-explain strategy, which includes three-dimensional (3D) computer modeling and observations on conceptual changes seen in sixth-grade elementary school children (aged 11-13; number of students: 131). A pre- and postastronomy instruction…

Prediction of Safety Margin and Optimization of Dosing Protocol for a Novel Antibiotic using Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Modeling.

PubMed

Woodhead, Jeffrey L; Paech, Franziska; Maurer, Martina; Engelhardt, Marc; Schmitt-Hoffmann, Anne H; Spickermann, Jochen; Messner, Simon; Wind, Mathias; Witschi, Anne-Therese; Krähenbühl, Stephan; Siler, Scott Q; Watkins, Paul B; Howell, Brett A

2018-06-07

Elevations of liver enzymes have been observed in clinical trials with BAL30072, a novel antibiotic. In vitro assays have identified potential mechanisms for the observed hepatotoxicity, including electron transport chain (ETC) inhibition and reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation. DILIsym, a quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model of drug-induced liver injury, has been used to predict the likelihood that each mechanism explains the observed toxicity. DILIsym was also used to predict the safety margin for a novel BAL30072 dosing scheme; it was predicted to be low. DILIsym was then used to recommend potential modifications to this dosing scheme; weight-adjusted dosing and a requirement to assay plasma alanine aminotransferase (ALT) daily and stop dosing as soon as ALT increases were observed improved the predicted safety margin of BAL30072 and decreased the predicted likelihood of severe injury. This research demonstrates a potential application for QSP modeling in improving the safety profile of candidate drugs. © 2018 The Authors. Clinical and Translational Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

The Australian electricity market's pre-dispatch process: Some observations on its efficiency using ordered probit model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zainudin, Wan Nur Rahini Aznie; Becker, Ralf; Clements, Adam

2015-12-01

Many market participants in Australia Electricity Market had cast doubts on whether the pre-dispatch process in the electricity market is able to give them good and timely quantity and price information. In a study by [11], they observed a significant bias (mainly indicating that the pre-dispatch process tends to underestimate spot price outcomes), a seasonality features of the bias across seasons and/or trading periods and changes in bias across the years in our sample period (1999 to 2007). In a formal setting of an ordered probit model we establish that there are some exogenous variables that are able to explain increased probabilities of over- or under-predictions of the spot price. It transpires that meteorological data, expected pre-dispatch prices and information on past over- and under-predictions contribute significantly to explaining variation in the probabilities for over- and under-predictions. The results allow us to conjecture that some of the bids and re-bids provided by electricity generators are not made in good faith.

Putting reward in art: A tentative prediction error account of visual art

PubMed Central

Van de Cruys, Sander; Wagemans, Johan

2011-01-01

The predictive coding model is increasingly and fruitfully used to explain a wide range of findings in perception. Here we discuss the potential of this model in explaining the mechanisms underlying aesthetic experiences. Traditionally art appreciation has been associated with concepts such as harmony, perceptual fluency, and the so-called good Gestalt. We observe that more often than not great artworks blatantly violate these characteristics. Using the concept of prediction error from the predictive coding approach, we attempt to resolve this contradiction. We argue that artists often destroy predictions that they have first carefully built up in their viewers, and thus highlight the importance of negative affect in aesthetic experience. However, the viewer often succeeds in recovering the predictable pattern, sometimes on a different level. The ensuing rewarding effect is derived from this transition from a state of uncertainty to a state of increased predictability. We illustrate our account with several example paintings and with a discussion of art movements and individual differences in preference. On a more fundamental level, our theorizing leads us to consider the affective implications of prediction confirmation and violation. We compare our proposal to other influential theories on aesthetics and explore its advantages and limitations. PMID:23145260

Changing ideas about others' intentions: updating prior expectations tunes activity in the human motor system.

PubMed

Jacquet, Pierre O; Roy, Alice C; Chambon, Valérian; Borghi, Anna M; Salemme, Roméo; Farnè, Alessandro; Reilly, Karen T

2016-05-31

Predicting intentions from observing another agent's behaviours is often thought to depend on motor resonance - i.e., the motor system's response to a perceived movement by the activation of its stored motor counterpart, but observers might also rely on prior expectations, especially when actions take place in perceptually uncertain situations. Here we assessed motor resonance during an action prediction task using transcranial magnetic stimulation to probe corticospinal excitability (CSE) and report that experimentally-induced updates in observers' prior expectations modulate CSE when predictions are made under situations of perceptual uncertainty. We show that prior expectations are updated on the basis of both biomechanical and probabilistic prior information and that the magnitude of the CSE modulation observed across participants is explained by the magnitude of change in their prior expectations. These findings provide the first evidence that when observers predict others' intentions, motor resonance mechanisms adapt to changes in their prior expectations. We propose that this adaptive adjustment might reflect a regulatory control mechanism that shares some similarities with that observed during action selection. Such a mechanism could help arbitrate the competition between biomechanical and probabilistic prior information when appropriate for prediction.

Cold dark matter: Controversies on small scales.

PubMed

Weinberg, David H; Bullock, James S; Governato, Fabio; Kuzio de Naray, Rachel; Peter, Annika H G

2015-10-06

The cold dark matter (CDM) cosmological model has been remarkably successful in explaining cosmic structure over an enormous span of redshift, but it has faced persistent challenges from observations that probe the innermost regions of dark matter halos and the properties of the Milky Way's dwarf galaxy satellites. We review the current observational and theoretical status of these "small-scale controversies." Cosmological simulations that incorporate only gravity and collisionless CDM predict halos with abundant substructure and central densities that are too high to match constraints from galaxy dynamics. The solution could lie in baryonic physics: Recent numerical simulations and analytical models suggest that gravitational potential fluctuations tied to efficient supernova feedback can flatten the central cusps of halos in massive galaxies, and a combination of feedback and low star formation efficiency could explain why most of the dark matter subhalos orbiting the Milky Way do not host visible galaxies. However, it is not clear that this solution can work in the lowest mass galaxies, where discrepancies are observed. Alternatively, the small-scale conflicts could be evidence of more complex physics in the dark sector itself. For example, elastic scattering from strong dark matter self-interactions can alter predicted halo mass profiles, leading to good agreement with observations across a wide range of galaxy mass. Gravitational lensing and dynamical perturbations of tidal streams in the stellar halo provide evidence for an abundant population of low-mass subhalos in accord with CDM predictions. These observational approaches will get more powerful over the next few years.

Statistical mechanics explanation for the structure of ocean eddies and currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venaille, A.; Bouchet, F.

2010-12-01

The equilibrium statistical mechanics of two dimensional and geostrophic flows predicts the outcome for the large scales of the flow, resulting from the turbulent mixing. This theory has been successfully applied to describe detailed properties of Jupiter's Great Red Spot. We discuss the range of applicability of this theory to ocean dynamics. It is able to reproduce mesoscale structures like ocean rings. It explains, from statistical mechanics, the westward drift of rings at the speed of non dispersive baroclinic waves, and the recently observed (Chelton and col.) slower northward drift of cyclonic eddies and southward drift of anticyclonic eddies. We also uncover relations between strong eastward mid-basin inertial jets, like the Kuroshio extension and the Gulf Stream, and statistical equilibria. We explain under which conditions such strong mid-basin jets can be understood as statistical equilibria. We claim that these results are complementary to the classical Sverdrup-Munk theory: they explain the inertial part basin dynamics, the jets structure and location, using very simple theoretical arguments. References: A. VENAILLE and F. BOUCHET, Ocean rings and jets as statistical equilibrium states, submitted to JPO F. BOUCHET and A. VENAILLE, Statistical mechanics of two-dimensional and geophysical flows, arxiv ...., submitted to Physics Reports P. BERLOFF, A. M. HOGG, W. DEWAR, The Turbulent Oscillator: A Mechanism of Low- Frequency Variability of the Wind-Driven Ocean Gyres, Journal of Physical Oceanography 37 (2007) 2363-+. D. B. CHELTON, M. G. SCHLAX, R. M. SAMELSON, R. A. de SZOEKE, Global observations of large oceanic eddies, Geo. Res. Lett.34 (2007) 15606-+ b) and c) are snapshots of streamfunction and potential vorticity (red: positive values; blue: negative values) in the upper layer of a three layer quasi-geostrophic model of a mid-latitude ocean basin (from Berloff and co.). a) Streamfunction predicted by statistical mechanics. Even in an out-equilibrium situation like this one, equilibrium statistical mechanics predicts remarkably the overall qualitative flow structure. Observation of westward drift of ocean eddies and of slower northward drift of cyclones and southward drift of anticyclones by Chelton and co. We explain these observations from statistical mechanics.

Student’s mental model, misconceptions, troublesome knowledge, and threshold concept on thermochemistry with DToM-POE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiji, W.; Mulyani, S.

2018-05-01

The purpose of this study is to obtain a profile of students' mental models, misconceptions, troublesome knowledge, and threshold concept on thermochemistry. The subjects in this study were 35 students. The method used in this research was descriptive method with instruments Diagnostic Test of Mental Model - Prediction, Observation, and Explanation (DToM-POE). The results showed that the students' ability to predict, observe, and explain ΔH of neutralization reaction of NaOH with HCl was still lacking. Most students tended to memorize chemical concepts related to symbolic level and they did not understand the meaning of the symbols used. Furthermore, most students were unable to connect the results of observations at the macroscopic level with the symbolic level to determine ΔH of neutralization reaction of NaOH with HCl. Then, most students tended to give an explanation by a net ionic equation or a chemical reaction equation at the symbolic level when explaining ΔH of neutralization reaction at the submicroscopic level. In addition, there are seven misconceptions, three troublesome knowledges, and three threshold concepts held by students on thermochemistry.

A critical assessment of models for the origin of multiple populations in globular clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastian, Nate

2017-03-01

A number of scenarios have been put forward to explain the origin of the chemical anomalies (and resulting complex colour-magnitude diagrams) observed in globular clusters (GCs), namely the AGB, Fast Rotating Massive Star, Very Massive Star, and Early Disc Accretion scenarios. We compare the predictions of these scenarios with a range of observations (including young massive clusters (YMCs), chemical patterns, and GC population properties) and find that all models are inconsistent with observations. In particular, YMCs do not show evidence for multiple epochs of star-formation and appear to be gas free by an age of ~ 3 Myr. Also, the chemical patterns displayed in GCs vary from one to the next in such a way that cannot be reproduced by standard nucleosynthetic yields. Finally, we show that the ``mass budget problem'' for the scenarios cannot be solved by invoking heavy cluster mass loss (i.e. that clusters were 10-100 times more massive at birth) as this solution makes basic predictions about the GC population that are inconsistent with observations. We conclude that none of the proposed scenarios can explain the multiple population phenomenon, hence alternative theories are needed.

A Prominence Puzzle Explained?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeates, A. R.; Mackay, D. H.; van Ballegooijen, A. A.

2009-02-01

Long-standing observations reveal a global organisation of the magnetic field direction in solar prominences (aka filaments), large clouds of cool dense plasma suspended in the Sun's hot corona. However, theorists have thus far been unable to explain the origin of this hemispheric pattern. In particular, simple shearing by large-scale surface motions would appear to lead to the wrong magnetic field direction. To explain the observations, we have developed a new model of the global magnetic field evolution in the solar corona over six months. For the first time our model can follow the build-up of magnetic helicity and shear on a global scale, driven by flux emergence and surface motions. The model is successful in predicting the correct magnetic field direction in the vast majority of prominences tested, and has enabled us to determine the key physical mechanisms behind the mysterious hemispheric pattern.

An empirical model for estimating annual consumption by freshwater fish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, H.; Pierce, C.L.; Larscheid, J.G.

2005-01-01

Population consumption is an important process linking predator populations to their prey resources. Simple tools are needed to enable fisheries managers to estimate population consumption. We assembled 74 individual estimates of annual consumption by freshwater fish populations and their mean annual population size, 41 of which also included estimates of mean annual biomass. The data set included 14 freshwater fish species from 10 different bodies of water. From this data set we developed two simple linear regression models predicting annual population consumption. Log-transformed population size explained 94% of the variation in log-transformed annual population consumption. Log-transformed biomass explained 98% of the variation in log-transformed annual population consumption. We quantified the accuracy of our regressions and three alternative consumption models as the mean percent difference from observed (bioenergetics-derived) estimates in a test data set. Predictions from our population-size regression matched observed consumption estimates poorly (mean percent difference = 222%). Predictions from our biomass regression matched observed consumption reasonably well (mean percent difference = 24%). The biomass regression was superior to an alternative model, similar in complexity, and comparable to two alternative models that were more complex and difficult to apply. Our biomass regression model, log10(consumption) = 0.5442 + 0.9962??log10(biomass), will be a useful tool for fishery managers, enabling them to make reasonably accurate annual population consumption predictions from mean annual biomass estimates. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

Modeling rate sensitivity of exercise transient responses to limb motion.

PubMed

Yamashiro, Stanley M; Kato, Takahide

2014-10-01

Transient responses of ventilation (V̇e) to limb motion can exhibit predictive characteristics. In response to a change in limb motion, a rapid change in V̇e is commonly observed with characteristics different than during a change in workload. This rapid change has been attributed to a feed-forward or adaptive response. Rate sensitivity was explored as a specific hypothesis to explain predictive V̇e responses to limb motion. A simple model assuming an additive feed-forward summation of V̇e proportional to the rate of change of limb motion was studied. This model was able to successfully account for the adaptive phase correction observed during human sinusoidal changes in limb motion. Adaptation of rate sensitivity might also explain the reduction of the fast component of V̇e responses previously reported following sudden exercise termination. Adaptation of the fast component of V̇e response could occur by reduction of rate sensitivity. Rate sensitivity of limb motion was predicted by the model to reduce the phase delay between limb motion and V̇e response without changing the steady-state response to exercise load. In this way, V̇e can respond more quickly to an exercise change without interfering with overall feedback control. The asymmetry between responses to an incremental and decremental ramp change in exercise can also be accounted for by the proposed model. Rate sensitivity leads to predicted behavior, which resembles responses observed in exercise tied to expiratory reserve volume. Copyright © 2014 the American Physiological Society.

Learning Parsimonious Classification Rules from Gene Expression Data Using Bayesian Networks with Local Structure.

PubMed

Lustgarten, Jonathan Lyle; Balasubramanian, Jeya Balaji; Visweswaran, Shyam; Gopalakrishnan, Vanathi

2017-03-01

The comprehensibility of good predictive models learned from high-dimensional gene expression data is attractive because it can lead to biomarker discovery. Several good classifiers provide comparable predictive performance but differ in their abilities to summarize the observed data. We extend a Bayesian Rule Learning (BRL-GSS) algorithm, previously shown to be a significantly better predictor than other classical approaches in this domain. It searches a space of Bayesian networks using a decision tree representation of its parameters with global constraints, and infers a set of IF-THEN rules. The number of parameters and therefore the number of rules are combinatorial to the number of predictor variables in the model. We relax these global constraints to a more generalizable local structure (BRL-LSS). BRL-LSS entails more parsimonious set of rules because it does not have to generate all combinatorial rules. The search space of local structures is much richer than the space of global structures. We design the BRL-LSS with the same worst-case time-complexity as BRL-GSS while exploring a richer and more complex model space. We measure predictive performance using Area Under the ROC curve (AUC) and Accuracy. We measure model parsimony performance by noting the average number of rules and variables needed to describe the observed data. We evaluate the predictive and parsimony performance of BRL-GSS, BRL-LSS and the state-of-the-art C4.5 decision tree algorithm, across 10-fold cross-validation using ten microarray gene-expression diagnostic datasets. In these experiments, we observe that BRL-LSS is similar to BRL-GSS in terms of predictive performance, while generating a much more parsimonious set of rules to explain the same observed data. BRL-LSS also needs fewer variables than C4.5 to explain the data with similar predictive performance. We also conduct a feasibility study to demonstrate the general applicability of our BRL methods on the newer RNA sequencing gene-expression data.

Changing ideas about others’ intentions: updating prior expectations tunes activity in the human motor system

PubMed Central

Jacquet, Pierre O.; Roy, Alice C.; Chambon, Valérian; Borghi, Anna M.; Salemme, Roméo; Farnè, Alessandro; Reilly, Karen T.

2016-01-01

Predicting intentions from observing another agent’s behaviours is often thought to depend on motor resonance – i.e., the motor system’s response to a perceived movement by the activation of its stored motor counterpart, but observers might also rely on prior expectations, especially when actions take place in perceptually uncertain situations. Here we assessed motor resonance during an action prediction task using transcranial magnetic stimulation to probe corticospinal excitability (CSE) and report that experimentally-induced updates in observers’ prior expectations modulate CSE when predictions are made under situations of perceptual uncertainty. We show that prior expectations are updated on the basis of both biomechanical and probabilistic prior information and that the magnitude of the CSE modulation observed across participants is explained by the magnitude of change in their prior expectations. These findings provide the first evidence that when observers predict others’ intentions, motor resonance mechanisms adapt to changes in their prior expectations. We propose that this adaptive adjustment might reflect a regulatory control mechanism that shares some similarities with that observed during action selection. Such a mechanism could help arbitrate the competition between biomechanical and probabilistic prior information when appropriate for prediction. PMID:27243157

Neutrinos from Choked Jets Accompanied by Type-II Supernovae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Hao-Ning; Kusenko, Alexander; Nagataki, Shigehiro; Fan, Yi-Zhong; Wei, Da-Ming

2018-04-01

The origin of the IceCube neutrinos is still an open question. Upper limits from diffuse gamma-ray observations suggest that the neutrino sources are either distant or hidden from gamma-ray observations. It is possible that the neutrinos are produced in jets that are formed in core-collapsing massive stars and fail to break out, the so-called choked jets. We study neutrinos from the jets choked in the hydrogen envelopes of red supergiant stars. Fast photo-meson cooling softens the neutrino spectrum, making it hard to explain the PeV neutrinos observed by IceCube in a one-component scenario, but a two-component model can explain the spectrum. Furthermore, we predict that a newly born jet-driven type-II supernova may be observed to be associated with a neutrino burst detected by IceCube.

Origin of Spinel Nanocheckerboards via First Principles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kornbluth, Mordechai; Marianetti, Chris A.

2015-06-01

Self-organizing nanocheckerboards have been experimentally fabricated in Mn-based spinels but have not yet been explained with first principles. Using density-functional theory, we explain the phase diagram of the ZnMnxGa2 -xO4 system and the origin of nanocheckerboards. We predict total phase separation at zero temperature and then show the combination of kinetics, thermodynamics, and Jahn-Teller physics that generates the system's observed behavior. We find that the {011 } surfaces are strongly preferred energetically, which mandates checkerboard ordering by purely geometrical considerations.

BIOLOGICALLY ENHANCED OXYGEN TRANSFER IN THE ACTIVATED SLUDGE PROCESS (JOURNAL)

EPA Science Inventory

Biologically enhanced oxgyen transfer has been a hypothesis to explain observed oxygen transfer rates in activated sludge systems that were well above that predicted from aerator clean-water testing. The enhanced oxygen transfer rates were based on tests using BOD bottle oxygen ...

Predict-share-observe-explain learning activity for the Torricelli's tank experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panich, Charunya; Puttharugsa, Chokchai; Khemmani, Supitch

2018-01-01

The purpose of this research was to study the students' scientific concept and achievement on fluid mechanics before and after the predict-share-observe-explain (PSOE) learning activity for the Torricelli's tank experiment. The 24 participants, who were selected by purposive sampling, were students at grade 12 at Nannakorn School, Nan province. A one group pre-test/post-test design was employed in the study. The research instruments were 1) the lesson plans using the PSOE learning activity and 2) two-tier multiple choice question and subjective tests. The results indicated that students had better scientific concept about Torricelli's tank experiment and the post-test mean score was significantly higher than the pre-test mean score at a 0.05 level of significance. Moreover, the students had retention of knowledge after the PSOE learning activity for 4 weeks at a 0.05 level of significance. The study showed that the PSOE learning activity is suitable for developing students' scientific concept and achievement.

A necessarily complex model to explain the biogeography of the amphibians and reptiles of Madagascar.

PubMed

Brown, Jason L; Cameron, Alison; Yoder, Anne D; Vences, Miguel

2014-10-09

Pattern and process are inextricably linked in biogeographic analyses, though we can observe pattern, we must infer process. Inferences of process are often based on ad hoc comparisons using a single spatial predictor. Here, we present an alternative approach that uses mixed-spatial models to measure the predictive potential of combinations of hypotheses. Biodiversity patterns are estimated from 8,362 occurrence records from 745 species of Malagasy amphibians and reptiles. By incorporating 18 spatially explicit predictions of 12 major biogeographic hypotheses, we show that mixed models greatly improve our ability to explain the observed biodiversity patterns. We conclude that patterns are influenced by a combination of diversification processes rather than by a single predominant mechanism. A 'one-size-fits-all' model does not exist. By developing a novel method for examining and synthesizing spatial parameters such as species richness, endemism and community similarity, we demonstrate the potential of these analyses for understanding the diversification history of Madagascar's biota.

Application of bioelectrical impedance analysis in prediction of light kid carcass and muscle chemical composition.

PubMed

Silva, S R; Afonso, J; Monteiro, A; Morais, R; Cabo, A; Batista, A C; Guedes, C M; Teixeira, A

2018-06-01

Carcass data were collected from 24 kids (average live weight of 12.5±5.5 kg; range 4.5 to 22.4 kg) of Jarmelista Portuguese native breed, to evaluate bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) as a technique for prediction of light kid carcass and muscle chemical composition. Resistance (Rs, Ω) and reactance (Xc, Ω), were measured in the cold carcasses with a single frequency bioelectrical impedance analyzer and, together with impedance (Z, Ω), two electrical volume measurements (VolA and VolB, cm2/Ω), carcass cold weight (CCW), carcass compactness and several carcass linear measurements were fitted as independent variables to predict carcass composition by stepwise regression analysis. The amount of variation explained by VolA and VolB only reached a significant level (P<0.01 and P<0.05, respectively) for muscle weight, moisture, protein and fat-free soft tissue content, even so with low accuracy, with VolA providing the best results (0.326⩽R 2⩽0.366). Quite differently, individual BIA parameters (Rs, Xc and Z) explained a very large amount of variation in dissectible carcass fat weight (0.814⩽R 2⩽0.862; P<0.01). These individual BIA parameters also explained a large amount of variation in subcutaneous and intermuscular fat weights (respectively 0.749⩽R 2⩽0.793 and 0.718⩽R 2⩽0.760; P<0.01), and in muscle chemical fat weight (0.663⩽R 2⩽0.684; P<0.01). Still significant but much lower was the variation in muscle, moisture, protein and fat-free soft tissue weights (0.344⩽R 2⩽0.393; P<0.01) explained by BIA parameters. Still, the best models for estimation of muscle, moisture, protein and fat-free soft tissue weights included Rs in addition to CCW, and accounted for 97.1% to 99.8% (P<0.01) of the variation observed, with CCW by itself accounting for 97.0% to 99.6% (P<0.01) of that variation. Resistance was the only independent variable selected for the best model predicting subcutaneous fat weight. It was also selected for the best models predicting carcass fat weight (combined with carcass length, CL; R 2=0.943; P<0.01) and intermuscular fat weight (combined with CCW; R 2=0.945; P<0.01). The best model predicting muscle chemical fat weight combined CCW and Z, explaining 85.6% (P<0.01) of the variation observed. These results indicate BIA as a useful tool for prediction of light kids' carcass composition.

Phase distribution of spliceosomal introns: implications for intron origin

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Hung D; Yoshihama, Maki; Kenmochi, Naoya

2006-01-01

Background The origin of spliceosomal introns is the central subject of the introns-early versus introns-late debate. The distribution of intron phases is non-uniform, with an excess of phase-0 introns. Introns-early explains this by speculating that a fraction of present-day introns were present between minigenes in the progenote and therefore must lie in phase-0. In contrast, introns-late predicts that the nonuniformity of intron phase distribution reflects the nonrandomness of intron insertions. Results In this paper, we tested the two theories using analyses of intron phase distribution. We inferred the evolution of intron phase distribution from a dataset of 684 gene orthologs from seven eukaryotes using a maximum likelihood method. We also tested whether the observed intron phase distributions from 10 eukaryotes can be explained by intron insertions on a genome-wide scale. In contrast to the prediction of introns-early, the inferred evolution of intron phase distribution showed that the proportion of phase-0 introns increased over evolution. Consistent with introns-late, the observed intron phase distributions matched those predicted by an intron insertion model quite well. Conclusion Our results strongly support the introns-late hypothesis of the origin of spliceosomal introns. PMID:16959043

Theoretical prediction and direct observation of the 9R structure in Ag

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ernst, F.; Finnis, M. W.; Hofmann, D.; Muschik, T.; Schönberger, U.; Wolf, U.; Methfessel, M.

1992-07-01

Molecular-dynamics simulations of the Σ3<110>(211) twin boundary in Ag predict a thin (1 nm) boundary phase of the 9R (α-Sm) structure. High-resolution electron microscopy shows the presence of the predicted structure. We also calculate the energy ab initio for several hypothetical structures of Cu and Ag. Low energies of the 9R structure and other polytypes, low experimental stacking-fault energies, and the hcp-fcc energy difference are correlated and explained in terms of an effective nearest-neighbor Ising interaction.

Cold dark matter: Controversies on small scales

PubMed Central

Weinberg, David H.; Bullock, James S.; Governato, Fabio; Kuzio de Naray, Rachel; Peter, Annika H. G.

2015-01-01

The cold dark matter (CDM) cosmological model has been remarkably successful in explaining cosmic structure over an enormous span of redshift, but it has faced persistent challenges from observations that probe the innermost regions of dark matter halos and the properties of the Milky Way’s dwarf galaxy satellites. We review the current observational and theoretical status of these “small-scale controversies.” Cosmological simulations that incorporate only gravity and collisionless CDM predict halos with abundant substructure and central densities that are too high to match constraints from galaxy dynamics. The solution could lie in baryonic physics: Recent numerical simulations and analytical models suggest that gravitational potential fluctuations tied to efficient supernova feedback can flatten the central cusps of halos in massive galaxies, and a combination of feedback and low star formation efficiency could explain why most of the dark matter subhalos orbiting the Milky Way do not host visible galaxies. However, it is not clear that this solution can work in the lowest mass galaxies, where discrepancies are observed. Alternatively, the small-scale conflicts could be evidence of more complex physics in the dark sector itself. For example, elastic scattering from strong dark matter self-interactions can alter predicted halo mass profiles, leading to good agreement with observations across a wide range of galaxy mass. Gravitational lensing and dynamical perturbations of tidal streams in the stellar halo provide evidence for an abundant population of low-mass subhalos in accord with CDM predictions. These observational approaches will get more powerful over the next few years. PMID:25646464

Microphysical Modeling of Mineral Clouds in GJ1214 b and GJ436 b: Predicting Upper Limits on the Cloud-top Height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohno, Kazumasa; Okuzumi, Satoshi

2018-05-01

The ubiquity of clouds in the atmospheres of exoplanets, especially of super-Earths, is one of the outstanding issues for the transmission spectra survey. Understanding the formation process of clouds in super-Earths is necessary to interpret the observed spectra correctly. In this study, we investigate the vertical distributions of particle size and mass density of mineral clouds in super-Earths using a microphysical model that takes into account the vertical transport and growth of cloud particles in a self-consistent manner. We demonstrate that the vertical profiles of mineral clouds significantly vary with the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei and atmospheric metallicity. We find that the height of the cloud top increases with increasing metallicity as long as the metallicity is lower than the threshold. If the metallicity is larger than the threshold, the cloud-top height no longer increases appreciably with metallicity because coalescence yields larger particles of higher settling velocities. We apply our cloud model to GJ1214 b and GJ436 b, for which recent transmission observations suggest the presence of high-altitude opaque clouds. For GJ436 b, we show that KCl particles can ascend high enough to explain the observation. For GJ1214 b, by contrast, the height of KCl clouds predicted from our model is too low to explain its flat transmission spectrum. Clouds made of highly porous KCl particles could explain the observations if the atmosphere is highly metal-rich, and hence the particle microstructure might be a key to interpret the flat spectrum of GJ1214 b.

Incorporation of the Time-Varying Postprandial Increase in Splanchnic Blood Flow into a PBPK Model to Predict the Effect of Food on the Pharmacokinetics of Orally Administered High-Extraction Drugs.

PubMed

Rose, Rachel H; Turner, David B; Neuhoff, Sibylle; Jamei, Masoud

2017-07-01

Following a meal, a transient increase in splanchnic blood flow occurs that can result in increased exposure to orally administered high-extraction drugs. Typically, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models have incorporated this increase in blood flow as a time-invariant fed/fasted ratio, but this approach is unable to explain the extent of increased drug exposure. A model for the time-varying increase in splanchnic blood flow following a moderate- to high-calorie meal (TV-Q Splanch ) was developed to describe the observed data for healthy individuals. This was integrated within a PBPK model and used to predict the contribution of increased splanchnic blood flow to the observed food effect for two orally administered high-extraction drugs, propranolol and ibrutinib. The model predicted geometric mean fed/fasted AUC and C max ratios of 1.24 and 1.29 for propranolol, which were within the range of published values (within 1.0-1.8-fold of values from eight clinical studies). For ibrutinib, the predicted geometric mean fed/fasted AUC and C max ratios were 2.0 and 1.84, respectively, which was within 1.1-fold of the reported fed/fasted AUC ratio but underestimated the reported C max ratio by up to 1.9-fold. For both drugs, the interindividual variability in fed/fasted AUC and C max ratios was underpredicted. This suggests that the postprandial change in splanchnic blood flow is a major mechanism of the food effect for propranolol and ibrutinib but is insufficient to fully explain the observations. The proposed model is anticipated to improve the prediction of food effect for high-extraction drugs, but should be considered with other mechanisms.

A whole image approach using field measurements for transforming EO1 Hyperion hyperspectral data into canopy reflectance spectra

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ramsey, Elijah W.; Nelson, G.

2005-01-01

To maximize the spectral distinctiveness (information) of the canopy reflectance, an atmospheric correction strategy was implemented to provide accurate estimates of the intrinsic reflectance from the Earth Observing 1 (EO1) satellite Hyperion sensor signal. In rendering the canopy reflectance, an estimate of optical depth derived from a measurement of downwelling irradiance was used to drive a radiative transfer simulation of atmospheric scattering and attenuation. During the atmospheric model simulation, the input whole-terrain background reflectance estimate was changed to minimize the differences between the model predicted and the observed canopy reflectance spectra at 34 sites. Lacking appropriate spectrally invariant scene targets, inclusion of the field and predicted comparison maximized the model accuracy and, thereby, the detail and precision in the canopy reflectance necessary to detect low percentage occurrences of invasive plants. After accounting for artifacts surrounding prominent absorption features from about 400nm to 1000nm, the atmospheric adjustment strategy correctly explained 99% of the observed canopy reflectance spectra variance. Separately, model simulation explained an average of 88%??9% of the observed variance in the visible and 98% ?? 1% in the near-infrared wavelengths. In the 34 model simulations, maximum differences between the observed and predicted reflectances were typically less than ?? 1% in the visible; however, maximum reflectance differences higher than ?? 1.6% (

Attraction Effect in Risky Choice Can Be Explained by Subjective Distance Between Choice Alternatives.

PubMed

Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Rieskamp, Jörg

2017-08-21

Individuals make decisions under risk throughout daily life. Standard models of economic decision making typically assume that people evaluate choice options independently. There is, however, substantial evidence showing that this independence assumption is frequently violated in decision making without risk. The present study extends these findings to the domain of decision making under risk. To explain the independence violations, we adapted a sequential sampling model, namely Multialternative Decision Field Theory (MDFT), to decision making under risk and showed how this model can account for the observed preference shifts. MDFT not only better predicts choices compared with the standard Expected Utility Theory, but it also explains individual differences in the size of the observed context effect. Evidence in favor of the chosen option, as predicted by MDFT, was positively correlated with brain activity in the medial orbitofrontal cortex (mOFC) and negatively correlated with brain activity in the anterior insula (aINS). From a neuroscience perspective, the results of the present study show that specific brain regions, such as the mOFC and aINS, not only code the value or risk of a single choice option but also code the evidence in favor of the best option compared with other available choice options.

Predicting dynamic knee joint load with clinical measures in people with medial knee osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Hunt, Michael A; Bennell, Kim L

2011-08-01

Knee joint loading, as measured by the knee adduction moment (KAM), has been implicated in the pathogenesis of knee osteoarthritis (OA). Given that the KAM can only currently be accurately measured in the laboratory setting with sophisticated and expensive equipment, its utility in the clinical setting is limited. This study aimed to determine the ability of a combination of four clinical measures to predict KAM values. Three-dimensional motion analysis was used to calculate the peak KAM at a self-selected walking speed in 47 consecutive individuals with medial compartment knee OA and varus malalignment. Clinical predictors included: body mass; tibial angle measured using an inclinometer; walking speed; and visually observed trunk lean toward the affected limb during the stance phase of walking. Multiple linear regression was performed to predict KAM magnitudes using the four clinical measures. A regression model including body mass (41% explained variance), tibial angle (17% explained variance), and walking speed (9% explained variance) explained a total of 67% of variance in the peak KAM. Our study demonstrates that a set of measures easily obtained in the clinical setting (body mass, tibial alignment, and walking speed) can help predict the KAM in people with medial knee OA. Identifying those patients who are more likely to experience high medial knee loads could assist clinicians in deciding whether load-modifying interventions may be appropriate for patients, whilst repeated assessment of joint load could provide a mechanism to monitor disease progression or success of treatment. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

2013-01-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

PubMed

Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

2013-10-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Electrification of organic particles explains apparent absence of small-scale bedforms on Titan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pähtz, T.; Duran Vinent, O.

2017-12-01

Harper et al. (Nat. Geosci., 2017) recently reported measurements that contact electrification tends to charge Titan sand, which is mainly composed of low-density organic particles, much more readily than Earth sand. We here show that this finding has major implications for the formation of bedforms on Titan by incorporating it into a recent unified theory of sediment transport cessation across environments (https://arxiv.org/abs/1602.07079): The modified theory predicts that the cessation threshold and thus the saturation length of sediment transport on Titan increase strongly as a result of contact electrification. We then use the predicted saturation length as an input in a recent unified bedform model by Duran and co-workers to explain the apparent absence of small-scale bedforms on Titan suggested by observations.

Recent global methane trends: an investigation using hierarchical Bayesian methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigby, M. L.; Stavert, A.; Ganesan, A.; Lunt, M. F.

2014-12-01

Following a decade with little growth, methane concentrations began to increase across the globe in 2007, and have continued to rise ever since. The reasons for this renewed growth are currently the subject of much debate. Here, we discuss the recent observed trends, and highlight some of the strengths and weaknesses in current "inverse" methods for quantifying fluxes using observations. In particular, we focus on the outstanding problems of accurately quantifying uncertainties in inverse frameworks. We examine to what extent the recent methane changes can be explained by the current generation of flux models and inventories. We examine the major modes of variability in wetland models along with the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR). Using the Model for Ozone and Related Tracers (MOZART), we determine whether the spatial and temporal atmospheric trends predicted using these emissions can be brought into consistency with in situ atmospheric observations. We use a novel hierarchical Bayesian methodology in which scaling factors applied to the principal components of the flux fields are estimated simultaneously with the uncertainties associated with the a priori fluxes and with model representations of the observations. Using this method, we examine the predictive power of methane flux models for explaining recent fluctuations.

Comparison of two weighted integration models for the cueing task: linear and likelihood

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shimozaki, Steven S.; Eckstein, Miguel P.; Abbey, Craig K.

2003-01-01

In a task in which the observer must detect a signal at two locations, presenting a precue that predicts the location of a signal leads to improved performance with a valid cue (signal location matches the cue), compared to an invalid cue (signal location does not match the cue). The cue validity effect has often been explained with a limited capacity attentional mechanism improving the perceptual quality at the cued location. Alternatively, the cueing effect can also be explained by unlimited capacity models that assume a weighted combination of noisy responses across the two locations. We compare two weighted integration models, a linear model and a sum of weighted likelihoods model based on a Bayesian observer. While qualitatively these models are similar, quantitatively they predict different cue validity effects as the signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) increase. To test these models, 3 observers performed in a cued discrimination task of Gaussian targets with an 80% valid precue across a broad range of SNR's. Analysis of a limited capacity attentional switching model was also included and rejected. The sum of weighted likelihoods model best described the psychophysical results, suggesting that human observers approximate a weighted combination of likelihoods, and not a weighted linear combination.

Filling or Draining a Water Bottle with Two Holes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cross, Rod

2016-01-01

Three simple experiments are described using a small water bottle with two holes in the side of the bottle. The main challenge is to predict and then explain the observations, but the arrangements can also be used for quantitative measurements concerning hydrostatic pressure, Bernoulli's equation, surface tension and bubble formation.

Validation of Ray Tracing Code Refraction Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heath, Stephanie L.; McAninch, Gerry L.; Smith, Charles D.; Conner, David A.

2008-01-01

NASA's current predictive capabilities using the ray tracing program (RTP) are validated using helicopter noise data taken at Eglin Air Force Base in 2007. By including refractive propagation effects due to wind and temperature, the ray tracing code is able to explain large variations in the data observed during the flight test.

The POE in the Primary School: An Evaluation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmer, David

1995-01-01

Evaluates the Predict-Observe-Explain (POE) technique that is used for identifying students' knowledge and understanding of science concepts. Reports that the children responded to the technique enthusiastically and the teachers were able to identify both their understanding and their process skills development. Concludes that the POE is a…

An optical model for the microwave properties of sea ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gloersen, P.; Larabee, J. K.

1981-01-01

The complex refractive index of sea ice is modeled and used to predict the microwave signatures of various sea ice types. Results are shown to correspond well with the observed values of the complex index inferred from dielectic constant and dielectric loss measurements performed in the field, and with observed microwave signatures of sea ice. The success of this modeling procedure vis a vis modeling of the dielectric properties of sea ice constituents used earlier by several others is explained. Multiple layer radiative transfer calculations are used to predict the microwave properties of first-year sea ice with and without snow, and multiyear sea ice.

Genome-Wide Association Mapping and Genomic Prediction Elucidate the Genetic Architecture of Morphological Traits in Arabidopsis.

PubMed

Kooke, Rik; Kruijer, Willem; Bours, Ralph; Becker, Frank; Kuhn, André; van de Geest, Henri; Buntjer, Jaap; Doeswijk, Timo; Guerra, José; Bouwmeester, Harro; Vreugdenhil, Dick; Keurentjes, Joost J B

2016-04-01

Quantitative traits in plants are controlled by a large number of genes and their interaction with the environment. To disentangle the genetic architecture of such traits, natural variation within species can be explored by studying genotype-phenotype relationships. Genome-wide association studies that link phenotypes to thousands of single nucleotide polymorphism markers are nowadays common practice for such analyses. In many cases, however, the identified individual loci cannot fully explain the heritability estimates, suggesting missing heritability. We analyzed 349 Arabidopsis accessions and found extensive variation and high heritabilities for different morphological traits. The number of significant genome-wide associations was, however, very low. The application of genomic prediction models that take into account the effects of all individual loci may greatly enhance the elucidation of the genetic architecture of quantitative traits in plants. Here, genomic prediction models revealed different genetic architectures for the morphological traits. Integrating genomic prediction and association mapping enabled the assignment of many plausible candidate genes explaining the observed variation. These genes were analyzed for functional and sequence diversity, and good indications that natural allelic variation in many of these genes contributes to phenotypic variation were obtained. For ACS11, an ethylene biosynthesis gene, haplotype differences explaining variation in the ratio of petiole and leaf length could be identified. © 2016 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Predicting assemblages and species richness of endemic fish in the upper Yangtze River.

PubMed

He, Yongfeng; Wang, Jianwei; Lek-Ang, Sithan; Lek, Sovan

2010-09-01

The present work describes the ability of two modeling methods, Classification and Regression Tree (CART) and Random Forest (RF), to predict endemic fish assemblages and species richness in the upper Yangtze River, and then to identify the determinant environmental factors contributing to the models. The models included 24 predictor variables and 2 response variables (fish assemblage and species richness) for a total of 46 site units. The predictive quality of the modeling approaches was judged with a leave-one-out validation procedure. There was an average success of 60.9% and 71.7% to assign each site unit to the correct assemblage of fish, and 73% and 84% to explain the variance in species richness, by using CART and RF models, respectively. RF proved to be better than CART in terms of accuracy and efficiency in ecological applications. In any case, the mixed models including both land cover and river characteristic variables were more powerful than either individual one in explaining the endemic fish distribution pattern in the upper Yangtze River. For instance, altitude, slope, length, discharge, runoff, farmland and alpine and sub-alpine meadow played important roles in driving the observed endemic fish assemblage structure, while farmland, slope grassland, discharge, runoff, altitude and drainage area in explaining the observed patterns of endemic species richness. Therefore, the various effects of human activity on natural aquatic ecosystems, in particular, the flow modification of the river and the land use changes may have a considerable effect on the endemic fish distribution patterns on a regional scale. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Magnetization of the oceanic crust: TRM or CRM?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raymond, C. A.; Labrecque, J. L.

1987-01-01

A model was proposed in which chemical remanent magnetization (CRM) acquired within the first 20 Ma of crustal evolution may account for 80% of the bulk natural remanent magnetization (NRM) of older basalts. The CRM of the crust is acquired as the original thermoremanent magnetization (TRM) is lost through low temperature alteration. The CRM intensity and direction are controlled by the post-emplacement polarity history. This model explains several independent observations concerning the magnetization of the oceanic crust. The model accounts for amplitude and skewness discrepancies observed in both the intermediate wavelength satellite field and the short wavelength sea surface magnetic anomaly pattern. It also explains the decay of magnetization away from the spreading axis, and the enhanced magnetization of the Cretaceous Quiet Zones while predicting other systematic variations with age in the bulk magnetization of the oceanic crust. The model also explains discrepancies in the anomaly skewness parameter observed for anomalies of Cretaceous age. Further studies indicate varying rates of TRM decay in very young crust which depicts the advance of low temperature alteration through the magnetized layer.

Magnetization of the oceanic crust - Thermoremanent magnetization of chemical remanent magnetization?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raymond, C. A.; Labrecque, J. L.

1987-01-01

A model was proposed in which chemical remanent magnetization (CRM) acquired within the first 20 Ma of crustal evolution may account for 80 percent of the bulk natural remanent magnetization (NRM) of older basalts. The CRM of the crust is acquired as the original thermoremanent magnetization (TRM) is lost through low temperature alteration. The CRM intensity and direction are controlled by the post-emplacement polarity history. This model explains several independent observations concerning the magnetization of the oceanic crust. The model accounts for amplitude and skewness dicrepancies observed in both the intermediate wavelength satellite field and the short wavelength sea surface magnetic anomaly pattern. It also explains the decay of magnetization away from the spreading axis, and the enhanced magnetization of the Cretaceous Quiet Zones while predicting other systematic variations with age in the bulk magnetization of the oceanic crust. The model also explains discrepancies in the anomaly skewness parameter observed for anomalies of Cretaceous age. Further studies indicate varying rates of TRM decay in very young crust which depicts the advance of low temperature alteration through the magnetized layer.

Performance factors in associative learning: assessment of the sometimes competing retrieval model.

PubMed

Witnauer, James E; Wojick, Brittany M; Polack, Cody W; Miller, Ralph R

2012-09-01

Previous simulations revealed that the sometimes competing retrieval model (SOCR; Stout & Miller, Psychological Review, 114, 759-783, 2007), which assumes local error reduction, can explain many cue interaction phenomena that elude traditional associative theories based on total error reduction. Here, we applied SOCR to a new set of Pavlovian phenomena. Simulations used a single set of fixed parameters to simulate each basic effect (e.g., blocking) and, for specific experiments using different procedures, used fitted parameters discovered through hill climbing. In simulation 1, SOCR was successfully applied to basic acquisition, including the overtraining effect, which is context dependent. In simulation 2, we applied SOCR to basic extinction and renewal. SOCR anticipated these effects with both fixed parameters and best-fitting parameters, although the renewal effects were weaker than those observed in some experiments. In simulation 3a, feature-negative training was simulated, including the often observed transition from second-order conditioning to conditioned inhibition. In simulation 3b, SOCR predicted the observation that conditioned inhibition after feature-negative and differential conditioning depends on intertrial interval. In simulation 3c, SOCR successfully predicted failure of conditioned inhibition to extinguish with presentations of the inhibitor alone under most circumstances. In simulation 4, cue competition, including blocking (4a), recovery from relative validity (4b), and unblocking (4c), was simulated. In simulation 5, SOCR correctly predicted that inhibitors gain more behavioral control than do excitors when they are trained in compound. Simulation 6 demonstrated that SOCR explains the slower acquisition observed following CS-weak shock pairings.

Coupled carbon-water exchange of the Amazon rain forest, II. Comparison of predicted and observed seasonal exchange of energy, CO2, isoprene and ozone at a remote site in Rondônia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, E.; Meixner, F. X.; Rummel, U.; Ganzeveld, L.; Ammann, C.; Kesselmeier, J.

2005-04-01

A one-dimensional multi-layer scheme describing the coupled exchange of energy and CO2, the emission of isoprene and the dry deposition of ozone is applied to a rain forest canopy in southwest Amazonia. The model was constrained using mean diel cycles of micrometeorological quantities observed during two periods in the wet and dry season 1999. Predicted net fluxes and concentration profiles for both seasonal periods are compared to observations made at two nearby towers.

The predicted day- and nighttime thermal stratification of the canopy layer is consistent with observations in dense canopies. The observed and calculated net fluxes above and H2O and CO2 concentration profiles within the canopy show a good agreement. The predicted net carbon sink decreases from 2.5 t C ha-1yr-1 for wet season conditions to 1 t C ha-1yr-1 for dry season conditions, whereas observed and predicted midday Bowen ratio increases from 0.5 to 0.8. The evaluation results confirmed a seasonal variability of leaf physiological parameters, as already suggested in the companion study. The predicted midday canopy net flux of isoprene increased from 7.1 mg C m-2h-1 during the wet season to 11.4 mg C m-2h-1 during the late dry season. Applying a constant emission capacity in all canopy layers, resulted in a disagreement between observed and simulated profiles of isoprene concentrations, suggesting a smaller emission capacity of shade adapted leaves and deposition to the soil or leaf surfaces. Assuming a strong light acclimation of emission capacity, equivalent to a 66% reduction of the standard emission factor for leaves in the lower canopy, resulted in a better agreement of observed and calculated concentration profiles and a 30% reduction of the canopy net flux. The mean calculated ozone flux for dry season condition at noontime was ≍12 nmol m-2s-1, agreeing well with observed values. The corresponding deposition velocity increased from 0.8 cm s-1 to >1.6 cm s-1 in the wet season, which can not be explained by increased stomatal uptake. Considering reasonable physiological changes in stomatal regulation, the predicted value was not larger than 1.05 cm s-1. Instead, the observed fluxes could be explained with the model by decreasing the cuticular resistance to ozone deposition from 5000 to 1000 s m-1. For doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations the model predicts a strong increase of surface temperatures (0.1-1°C) and net assimilation (22%), a considerable shift in the energy budget (≍25% decreasing transpiration and increasing sensible heat), a slight increase of isoprene emissions (10%) and a strong decrease of ozone deposition (35%).

Dynamic Divisive Normalization Predicts Time-Varying Value Coding in Decision-Related Circuits

PubMed Central

LoFaro, Thomas; Webb, Ryan; Glimcher, Paul W.

2014-01-01

Normalization is a widespread neural computation, mediating divisive gain control in sensory processing and implementing a context-dependent value code in decision-related frontal and parietal cortices. Although decision-making is a dynamic process with complex temporal characteristics, most models of normalization are time-independent and little is known about the dynamic interaction of normalization and choice. Here, we show that a simple differential equation model of normalization explains the characteristic phasic-sustained pattern of cortical decision activity and predicts specific normalization dynamics: value coding during initial transients, time-varying value modulation, and delayed onset of contextual information. Empirically, we observe these predicted dynamics in saccade-related neurons in monkey lateral intraparietal cortex. Furthermore, such models naturally incorporate a time-weighted average of past activity, implementing an intrinsic reference-dependence in value coding. These results suggest that a single network mechanism can explain both transient and sustained decision activity, emphasizing the importance of a dynamic view of normalization in neural coding. PMID:25429145

Predicting Directly Measured Trunk and Upper Arm Postures in Paper Mill Work From Administrative Data, Workers' Ratings and Posture Observations.

PubMed

Heiden, Marina; Garza, Jennifer; Trask, Catherine; Mathiassen, Svend Erik

2017-03-01

A cost-efficient approach for assessing working postures could be to build statistical models for predicting results of direct measurements from cheaper data, and apply these models to samples in which only the latter data are available. The present study aimed to build and assess the performance of statistical models predicting inclinometer-assessed trunk and arm posture among paper mill workers. Separate models were built using administrative data, workers' ratings of their exposure, and observations of the work from video recordings as predictors. Trunk and upper arm postures were measured using inclinometry on 28 paper mill workers during three work shifts each. Simultaneously, the workers were video filmed, and their postures were assessed by observation of the videos afterwards. Workers' ratings of exposure, and administrative data on staff and production during the shifts were also collected. Linear mixed models were fitted for predicting inclinometer-assessed exposure variables (median trunk and upper arm angle, proportion of time with neutral trunk and upper arm posture, and frequency of periods in neutral trunk and upper arm inclination) from administrative data, workers' ratings, and observations, respectively. Performance was evaluated in terms of Akaike information criterion, proportion of variance explained (R2), and standard error (SE) of the model estimate. For models performing well, validity was assessed by bootstrap resampling. Models based on administrative data performed poorly (R2 ≤ 15%) and would not be useful for assessing posture in this population. Models using workers' ratings of exposure performed slightly better (8% ≤ R2 ≤ 27% for trunk posture; 14% ≤ R2 ≤ 36% for arm posture). The best model was obtained when using observational data for predicting frequency of periods with neutral arm inclination. It explained 56% of the variance in the postural exposure, and its SE was 5.6. Bootstrap validation of this model showed similar expected performance in other samples (5th-95th percentile: R2 = 45-63%; SE = 5.1-6.2). Observational data had a better ability to predict inclinometer-assessed upper arm exposures than workers' ratings or administrative data. However, observational measurements are typically more expensive to obtain. The results encourage analyses of the cost-efficiency of modeling based on administrative data, workers' ratings, and observation, compared to the performance and cost of measuring exposure directly. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Allometric biomass partitioning under nitrogen enrichment: Evidence from manipulative experiments around the world.

PubMed

Peng, Yunfeng; Yang, Yuanhe

2016-06-28

Allometric and optimal hypotheses have been widely used to explain biomass partitioning in response to resource changes for individual plants; however, little evidence has been reported from measurements at the community level across a broad geographic scale. This study assessed the nitrogen (N) effect on community-level root to shoot (R/S) ratios and biomass partitioning functions by synthesizing global manipulative experiments. Results showed that, in aggregate, N addition decreased the R/S ratios in various biomes. However, the scaling slopes of the allometric equations were not significantly altered by the N enrichment, possibly indicating that N-induced reduction of the R/S ratio is a consequence of allometric allocation as a function of increasing plant size rather than an optimal partitioning model. To further illustrate this point, we developed power function models to explore the relationships between aboveground and belowground biomass for various biomes; then, we generated the predicted root biomass from the observed shoot biomass and predicted R/S ratios. The comparison of predicted and observed N-induced changes of the R/S ratio revealed no significant differences between each other, supporting the allometric allocation hypothesis. These results suggest that allometry, rather than optimal allocation, explains the N-induced reduction in the R/S ratio across global biomes.

Spatial prediction of wheat Septoria leaf blotch (Septoria tritici) disease severity in central Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wakie, Tewodros; Kumar, Sunil; Senay, Gabriel; Takele, Abera; Lencho, Alemu

2016-01-01

A number of studies have reported the presence of wheat septoria leaf blotch (Septoria tritici; SLB) disease in Ethiopia. However, the environmental factors associated with SLB disease, and areas under risk of SLB disease, have not been studied. Here, we tested the hypothesis that environmental variables can adequately explain observed SLB disease severity levels in West Shewa, Central Ethiopia. Specifically, we identified 50 environmental variables and assessed their relationships with SLB disease severity. Geographically referenced disease severity data were obtained from the field, and linear regression and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) modeling approaches were used for developing spatial models. Moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived vegetation indices and land surface temperature (LST) variables highly influenced SLB model predictions. Soil and topographic variables did not sufficiently explain observed SLB disease severity variation in this study. Our results show that wheat growing areas in Central Ethiopia, including highly productive districts, are at risk of SLB disease. The study demonstrates the integration of field data with modeling approaches such as BRT for predicting the spatial patterns of severity of a pathogenic wheat disease in Central Ethiopia. Our results can aid Ethiopia's wheat disease monitoring efforts, while our methods can be replicated for testing related hypotheses elsewhere.

Thermo-hydraulics of the Peruvian accretionary complex at 12°S

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kukowski, Nina; Pecher, Ingo

1999-01-01

The models were constrained by the thermal gradient obtained from the depth of bottomsimulating reflectors (BSRs) at the lower slope and some conventional measurements. We foundthat significant frictional heating is required to explain the observed strong landward increase ofheat flux. This is consistent with results from sandbox modelling which predict strong basalfriction at this margin. A significantly higher heat source is needed to match the observed thermalgradient in the southern line.

On the theory of the type III burst exciter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, R. A.; Goldstein, M. L.; Papadopoulos, K.

1976-01-01

In situ satellite observations of type III burst exciters at 1 AU show that the beam does not evolve into a plateau in velocity space, contrary to the prediction of quasilinear theory. The observations can be explained by a theory that includes mode coupling effects due to excitation of the parametric oscillating two-stream instability and its saturation by anomalous resistivity. The time evolution of the beam velocity distribution is included in the analysis.

Observation of plasmonic dipolar anti-bonding mode in silver nanoring structures.

PubMed

Ye, Jian; Van Dorpe, Pol; Lagae, Liesbet; Maes, Guido; Borghs, Gustaaf

2009-11-18

We report on a clear experimental observation of the plasmonic dipolar anti-bonding resonance in silver nanorings. The data can be explained effectively by the plasmon hybridization model, which is confirmed by the numerical calculations of the electromagnetic field and surface charge distribution profiles. The experimental demonstration of the plasmon hybridization model indicates its usefulness as a valuable tool to understand, design and predict optical properties of metallic nanostructures.

Observation of plasmonic dipolar anti-bonding mode in silver nanoring structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Jian; Van Dorpe, Pol; Lagae, Liesbet; Maes, Guido; Borghs, Gustaaf

2009-11-01

We report on a clear experimental observation of the plasmonic dipolar anti-bonding resonance in silver nanorings. The data can be explained effectively by the plasmon hybridization model, which is confirmed by the numerical calculations of the electromagnetic field and surface charge distribution profiles. The experimental demonstration of the plasmon hybridization model indicates its usefulness as a valuable tool to understand, design and predict optical properties of metallic nanostructures.

Investigating the present and past glacial and frost activity on Pluto with a volatile transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertrand, Tanguy; Forget, Francois

2016-10-01

The high obliquity and eccentricity of the orbit of Pluto induce seasonal cycles of condensation and sublimation of the main volatile ices: N2, CH4, and CO. The New Horizons spacecraft, which flew by Pluto in July 2015, revealed a complex surface composition including a thousand-kilometre nitrogen glacier in the "Sputnik Planum" plain near the Anti-Charon longitude, extensive methane frosts at mid and high latitudes, and equatorial ice-free regions. We present numerical simulations designed to model the evolution of Pluto's volatiles over thousands of years on the basis of straightforward universal physical equations.Our results explain the observed distribution of ices on the surface and the quantities of volatiles in the atmosphere. In particular the model predicts the N2 ice accumulation in the deepest low-latitude basin and the 3-fold increase of pressure observed to occur since 1988. This points to atmospheric-topographic processes at the origin of the Sputnik Planum's nitrogen glacier. The same simulations also show frosts of methane, and sometimes nitrogen, that seasonally cover the mid and high latitudes, explaining the bright northern polar cap reported in the 1990s and the observed ice distribution in 2015. The model also predicts that most of these seasonal frosts should disappear in the next decade, and thus could be tested observationally in the near future.Using prior orbital parameters of Pluto and a realistic glacial flow parametrization, we also simulate past climates of Pluto. The results show that Pluto undergoes cycles of glacial activity (over timescales of few million years) that may explain the rugged eroded-mountain landscapes surrounding Sputnik Planum and the "bladed" methane terrains east of "Tombaugh Regio".

Newton's Third Law on a Scale Balance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nopparatjamjomras, Suchai; Panijpan, Bhinyo; Huntula, Jiradawan

2009-01-01

We propose a series of experiments involving balance readings of an object naturally floating or forced to be partially or fully immersed in water contained in a beaker sitting on an electronic scale balance. Students were asked to predict, observe and explain each case. The teacher facilitated the learning by asking probing questions, giving…

H I-to-H2 Transition Layers in the Star-forming Region W43

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bialy, Shmuel; Bihr, Simon; Beuther, Henrik; Henning, Thomas; Sternberg, Amiel

2017-02-01

The process of atomic-to-molecular (H I-to-H2) gas conversion is fundamental for molecular-cloud formation and star formation. 21 cm observations of the star-forming region W43 revealed extremely high H I column densities, of 120-180 {M}⊙ {{pc}}-2, a factor of 10-20 larger than predicted by H I-to-H2 transition theories. We analyze the observed H I with a theoretical model of the H I-to-H2 transition, and show that the discrepancy between theory and observation cannot be explained by the intense radiation in W43, nor be explained by variations of the assumed volume density or H2 formation rate coefficient. We show that the large observed H I columns are naturally explained by several (9-22) H I-to-H2 transition layers, superimposed along the sightlines of W43. We discuss other possible interpretations such as a non-steady-state scenario and inefficient dust absorption. The case of W43 suggests that H I thresholds reported in extragalactic observations are probably not associated with a single H I-to-H2 transition, but are rather a result of several transition layers (clouds) along the sightlines, beam-diluted with diffuse intercloud gas.

The Formation and Physical Origin of Highly Ionized Cooling Gas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bordoloi, Rongmon; Wagner, Alexander Y.; Heckman, Timothy M.

We present a simple model that explains the origin of warm, diffuse gas seen primarily as highly ionized absorption-line systems in the spectra of background sources. We predict the observed column densities of several highly ionized transitions such as O vi, O vii, Ne viii, N v, and Mg x, and we present a unified comparison of the model predictions with absorption lines seen in the Milky Way disk, Milky Way halo, starburst galaxies, the circumgalactic medium, and the intergalactic medium at low and high redshifts. We show that diffuse gas seen in such diverse environments can be simultaneously explainedmore » by a simple model of radiatively cooling gas. We show that most such absorption-line systems are consistent with being collisionally ionized, and we estimate the maximum-likelihood temperature of the gas in each observation. This model satisfactorily explains why O vi is regularly observed around star-forming low- z L* galaxies, and why N v is rarely seen around the same galaxies. We further present some consequences of this model in quantifying the dynamics of the cooling gas around galaxies and predict the shock velocities associated with such flows. A unique strength of this model is that while it has only one free (but physically well-constrained) parameter, it nevertheless successfully reproduces the available data on O vi absorbers in the interstellar, circumgalactic, intragroup, and intergalactic media, as well as the available data on other absorption lines from highly ionized species.« less

An interfacial mechanism for cloud droplet formation on organic aerosols

DOE PAGES

Ruehl, C. R.; Davies, J. F.; Wilson, K. R.

2016-03-25

Accurate predictions of aerosol/cloud interactions require simple, physically accurate parameterizations of the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity of aerosols. Current models assume that organic aerosol species contribute to CCN activity by lowering water activity. We measured droplet diameters at the point of CCN activation for particles composed of dicarboxylic acids or secondary organic aerosol and ammonium sulfate. Droplet activation diameters were 40 to 60% larger than predicted if the organic was assumed to be dissolved within the bulk droplet, suggesting that a new mechanism is needed to explain cloud droplet formation. A compressed film model explains how surface tension depressionmore » by interfacial organic molecules can alter the relationship between water vapor supersaturation and droplet size (i.e., the Köhler curve), leading to the larger diameters observed at activation.« less

An interfacial mechanism for cloud droplet formation on organic aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruehl, C. R.; Davies, J. F.; Wilson, K. R.

Accurate predictions of aerosol/cloud interactions require simple, physically accurate parameterizations of the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity of aerosols. Current models assume that organic aerosol species contribute to CCN activity by lowering water activity. We measured droplet diameters at the point of CCN activation for particles composed of dicarboxylic acids or secondary organic aerosol and ammonium sulfate. Droplet activation diameters were 40 to 60% larger than predicted if the organic was assumed to be dissolved within the bulk droplet, suggesting that a new mechanism is needed to explain cloud droplet formation. A compressed film model explains how surface tension depressionmore » by interfacial organic molecules can alter the relationship between water vapor supersaturation and droplet size (i.e., the Köhler curve), leading to the larger diameters observed at activation.« less

An interfacial mechanism for cloud droplet formation on organic aerosols.

PubMed

Ruehl, Christopher R; Davies, James F; Wilson, Kevin R

2016-03-25

Accurate predictions of aerosol/cloud interactions require simple, physically accurate parameterizations of the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity of aerosols. Current models assume that organic aerosol species contribute to CCN activity by lowering water activity. We measured droplet diameters at the point of CCN activation for particles composed of dicarboxylic acids or secondary organic aerosol and ammonium sulfate. Droplet activation diameters were 40 to 60% larger than predicted if the organic was assumed to be dissolved within the bulk droplet, suggesting that a new mechanism is needed to explain cloud droplet formation. A compressed film model explains how surface tension depression by interfacial organic molecules can alter the relationship between water vapor supersaturation and droplet size (i.e., the Köhler curve), leading to the larger diameters observed at activation. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Microbial models with data-driven parameters predict stronger soil carbon responses to climate change.

PubMed

Hararuk, Oleksandra; Smith, Matthew J; Luo, Yiqi

2015-06-01

Long-term carbon (C) cycle feedbacks to climate depend on the future dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC). Current models show low predictive accuracy at simulating contemporary SOC pools, which can be improved through parameter estimation. However, major uncertainty remains in global soil responses to climate change, particularly uncertainty in how the activity of soil microbial communities will respond. To date, the role of microbes in SOC dynamics has been implicitly described by decay rate constants in most conventional global carbon cycle models. Explicitly including microbial biomass dynamics into C cycle model formulations has shown potential to improve model predictive performance when assessed against global SOC databases. This study aimed to data-constrained parameters of two soil microbial models, evaluate the improvements in performance of those calibrated models in predicting contemporary carbon stocks, and compare the SOC responses to climate change and their uncertainties between microbial and conventional models. Microbial models with calibrated parameters explained 51% of variability in the observed total SOC, whereas a calibrated conventional model explained 41%. The microbial models, when forced with climate and soil carbon input predictions from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), produced stronger soil C responses to 95 years of climate change than any of the 11 CMIP5 models. The calibrated microbial models predicted between 8% (2-pool model) and 11% (4-pool model) soil C losses compared with CMIP5 model projections which ranged from a 7% loss to a 22.6% gain. Lastly, we observed unrealistic oscillatory SOC dynamics in the 2-pool microbial model. The 4-pool model also produced oscillations, but they were less prominent and could be avoided, depending on the parameter values. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of vorticity flip-over on the premixed flame structure: Experimental observation of type-I inflection flames

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Rabii, Hazem; Kazakov, Kirill A.

2015-12-01

Premixed flames propagating in horizontal tubes are observed to take on a convex shape towards the fresh mixture, which is commonly explained as a buoyancy effect. A recent rigorous analysis has shown, on the contrary, that this process is driven by the balance of vorticity generated by a curved flame front with the baroclinic vorticity, and predicted existence of a regime in which the leading edge of the flame front is concave. We report experimental realization of this regime. Our experiments on ethane and n -butane mixtures with air show that flames with an inflection point on the front are regularly produced in lean mixtures, provided that a sufficiently weak ignition is used. The observed flame shape perfectly agrees with that theoretically predicted.

Low-high junction theory applied to solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Godlewski, M. P.; Baraona, C. R.; Brandhorst, H. W., Jr.

1974-01-01

Recent use of alloying techniques for rear contact formation has yielded a new kind of silicon solar cell, the back surface field (BSF) cell, with abnormally high open-circuit voltage and improved radiation resistance. Several analytical models for open-circuit voltage based on the reverse saturation current are formulated to explain these observations. The zero surface recombination velocity (SRV) case of the conventional cell model, the drift field model, and the low-high junction (LHJ) model can predict the experimental trends. The LHJ model applies the theory of the low-high junction and is considered to reflect a more realistic view of cell fabrication. This model can predict the experimental trends observed for BSF cells.

The gamma ray north-south effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, R. S.; O'Neill, T. J.; Tumer, O. T.; Zych, A. D.

1988-01-01

Theoretical calculations are presented that explain the balloon observations by O'Neill et al. (1987) of a strong north-south anisotropy of atmospheric gamma rays over the Southern Hemisphere, and to predict the north-south ratios. It is shown that the gamma rays that originate at the longest distances from the telescopes give the largest north-south ratios. Comparisons are made of the experimental north-south ratios measured on balloons launched from Alice Springs, Australia, and from Palestine, Texas, U.S., and predictions are made for ratios at other geomagnetic latitudes and longitudes. It is pointed out that observers who measure backgrounds for celestial sources may be misled unless they correct for the north-south effect.

The Hot Horizontal-Branch Stars in omega Centauri

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moehler, S.; Dreizler, S.; Lanz, T.; Bono, G.; Sweigart, A. V.; Calamida, A.; Nonino, M.

2010-01-01

Context. UV observations of some massive globular clusters have revealed a significant population of stars hotter and fainter than the hot end of the horizontal branch (HB), the so-called blue hook stars. This feature might be explained either by the late hot flasher scenario where stars experience the helium flash while on the white dwarf cooling curve or by the progeny of the helium-enriched sub-population recently postulated to exist in some clusters. Previous spectroscopic analyses of blue hook stars in co Cen and NGC 2808 support the late hot flasher scenario, but the stars contain much less helium than expected and the predicted C, N enrichment could not be verified. Aims. We compare observed effective temperatures, surface gravities, helium abundances, and carbon line strengths (where detectable) of our targets stars to the predictions of the two scenarios. Methods. Moderately high resolution spectra of hot HB stars in the globular cluster omega-Cen were analysed for radial velocity variations, atmospheric parameters and abundances using LTE and non-LTE model atmospheres. Results. We find no evidence for close binaries among our target stars. All stars below 30 000 K are helium-poor and very similar to HB stars observed in that temperature range in other globular clusters. In the temperature range 30000 K to 50000 K we find that 28% of our stars are helium-poor (log ((sup n)He/(sup n )H)< - 1.6), while 72% have roughly solar or super-solar helium abundance (log ((sup n)He/(sup n )H) >/= -1.5). We also find carbon enrichment strongly correlated with helium enrichment, with a maximum carbon enrichment of 3% by mass. Conclusions. The strong carbon enrichment in tandem with helium enrichment is predicted by the late hot flasher scenario, but not by the helium-enrichment scenario. We conclude that the helium-rich HB stars in omega-Cen cannot be explained solely by the helium-enrichment scenario invoked to explain the blue main sequence.

Partial migration and transient coexistence of migrants and residents in animal populations.

PubMed

Singh, Navinder J; Leonardsson, Kjell

2014-01-01

Partial migration, whereby a proportion of the population migrates, is common across the animal kingdom. Much of the focus in the literature has been on trying to explain the underlying mechanisms for the coexistence of migrants and residents. In addition, there has been an increasing number of reports on the prevalence and frequency of partially migratory populations. One possible explanation for the occurrence of partial migration, which has received no attention in the literature, is that of 'transient coexistence' during the invasion phase of a superior behaviour. In this study we develop a theoretical basis for explaining partial migration as a transient coexistence and derive a method to predict the frequency of residents and migrants in partially migrating populations. This method is useful to predict the frequencies of migrants and residents in a small set of populations as a complementing hypothesis to 'an Evolutionary Stable Strategy (ESS)'. We use the logistic growth equation to derive a formula for predicting the frequencies of residents and migrants. We also use simulations and empirical data from white perch (Morone americana), moose (Alces alces) and red deer (Cervus elaphus) to demonstrate our approach. We show that the probability of detecting partial migration due to transient coexistence depends upon a minimum number of tracked or marked individuals for a given number of populations. Our approach provides a starting point in searching for explanations to the observed frequencies, by contrasting the observed pattern with both the predicted transient and the uniform random pattern. Aggregating such information on observed patterns (proportions of migrants and residents) may eventually lead to the development of a quantitative theory for the equilibrium (ESS) populations as well.

Terrestrial water cycle induced meridional overturning circulation variability over the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, C. W.; Velicogna, I.

2016-12-01

Terrestrial water cycle has a significant role in the long-term changes of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). With the fresh water input over the ocean from the river runoff or ice melting at the higher latitude, AMOC transport has been predicted to slow down at the end of the century. We compare ocean bottom pressure measured from the GRACE satellite data with the conventional density derived transport observations from the RAPID MOC/MOCHA array to study the impact of the terrestrial water cycle on the seasonal and inter annual AMOC variability detected by the RAPID MOC/MOCHA array observations. We propose that the observed short-term variability is due to coupling of wind driven and terrestrial water cycle changes. We show that the proposed mechanism explains a significant portion of the transport variance and we present new possible mechanism that can explain the residual transport signal in AMOC.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linden, Tim; Hooper, Dan; Yusef-Zadeh, Farhad

The inner degrees of the Galactic center contain a large population of filamentary structures observed at radio frequencies. These so-called non-thermal radio filaments (NRFs) trace magnetic field lines and have attracted significant interest due to their hard (S_v ~ -0.1 +/- 0.4) synchrotron emission spectra. The origin of these filaments remains poorly understood. We show that the electrons and positrons created through the annihilations of a relatively light (~5-10 GeV) dark matter particle with the cross section predicted for a simple thermal relic can provide a compelling match to the intensity, spectral shape, and flux variation of the NRFs. Furthermore,more » the characteristics of the dark matter particle necessary to explain the synchrotron emission from the NRFs is consistent with those required to explain the excess gamma-ray emission observed from the Galactic center by the Fermi-LAT, as well as the direct detection signals observed by CoGeNT and DAMA/LIBRA.« less

RECONCILING AGN-STAR FORMATION, THE SOLTAN ARGUMENT, AND MEIER’S PARADOX

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garofalo, David; Kim, Matthew I.; Christian, Damian J.

2016-02-01

We provide a theoretical context for understanding the recent work of Kalfountzou et al. showing that star formation is enhanced at lower optical luminosity in radio-loud quasars. Our proposal for coupling the assumption of collimated FRII quasar-jet-induced star formation with lower accretion optical luminosity also explains the observed jet power peak in active galaxies at higher redshift compared to the peak in accretion power, doing so in a way that predicts the existence of a family of radio-quiet active galactic nuclei associated with rapidly spinning supermassive black holes at low redshift, as mounting observations suggest. The relevance of this work liesmore » in its promise to explain the observed cosmological evolution of accretion power, jet power, and star formation in a way that is both compatible with the Soltan argument and resolves the so-called “Meier Paradox.”.« less

Hyperfine interaction in K 2Ba[Fe(NO 2) 6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padmakumar, K.; Manoharan, P. T.

2000-04-01

Magnetic hyperfine splitting observed in the low temperature Mössbauer spectrum of potassium barium hexanitro ferrate(II), in the absence of any external field, is attributed to the 5T 2g state of the central metal atom further split into a ground 5E g state and a first excited 5B 2g state under a distorted octahedral symmetry in contrast to the earlier prediction of 1A 1g ground state on the basis of room temperature Mössbauer spectral and other properties. The central iron atom is co-ordianted to six nitrito groups (NO 2-), having an oxidation state of +2. The temperature dependence of Mössbauer spectra is explained on the basis of electronic relaxation among the spin-orbit coupled levels of the 5E g ground state. Various kinds of electronic relaxation mechanisms have been compared to explain the proposed mechanism. The observed temperature dependent spectra with varying internal magnetic field and line width can be explained by simple spin lattice relaxation.

The correlation function for density perturbations in an expanding universe. III The three-point and predictions of the four-point and higher order correlation functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcclelland, J.; Silk, J.

1978-01-01

Higher-order correlation functions for the large-scale distribution of galaxies in space are investigated. It is demonstrated that the three-point correlation function observed by Peebles and Groth (1975) is not consistent with a distribution of perturbations that at present are randomly distributed in space. The two-point correlation function is shown to be independent of how the perturbations are distributed spatially, and a model of clustered perturbations is developed which incorporates a nonuniform perturbation distribution and which explains the three-point correlation function. A model with hierarchical perturbations incorporating the same nonuniform distribution is also constructed; it is found that this model also explains the three-point correlation function, but predicts different results for the four-point and higher-order correlation functions than does the model with clustered perturbations. It is suggested that the model of hierarchical perturbations might be explained by the single assumption of having density fluctuations or discrete objects all of the same mass randomly placed at some initial epoch.

Habitat history improves prediction of biodiversity in rainforest fauna

PubMed Central

Graham, Catherine H.; Moritz, Craig; Williams, Stephen E.

2006-01-01

Patterns of biological diversity should be interpreted in light of both contemporary and historical influences; however, to date, most attempts to explain diversity patterns have largely ignored history or have been unable to quantify the influence of historical processes. The historical effects on patterns of diversity have been hypothesized to be most important for taxonomic groups with poor dispersal abilities. We quantified the relative stability of rainforests over the late Quaternary period by modeling rainforest expansion and contraction in 21 biogeographic subregions in northeast Australia across four time periods. We demonstrate that historical habitat stability can be as important, and in endemic low-dispersal taxa even more important, than current habitat area in explaining spatial patterns of species richness. In contrast, patterns of endemic species richness for taxa with high dispersal capacity are best predicted by using current environmental parameters. We also show that contemporary patterns of species turnover across the region are best explained by historical patterns of habitat connectivity. These results clearly demonstrate that spatially explicit analyses of the historical processes of persistence and colonization are both effective and necessary for understanding observed patterns of biodiversity. PMID:16407139

Thermodynamic ocean-atmosphere Coupling and the Predictability of Nordeste rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Giannini, A.

2003-04-01

The interannual variability of rainfall in the northeastern region of Brazil, or Nordeste, is known to be very strongly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) variability, of Atlantic and Pacific origin. For this reason the potential predictability of Nordeste rainfall is high. The current generation of state-of-the-art atmospheric models can replicate the observed rainfall variability with high skill when forced with the observed record of SST variability. The correlation between observed and modeled indices of Nordeste rainfall, in the AMIP-style integrations with two such models (NSIPP and CCM3) analyzed here, is of the order of 0.8, i.e. the models explain about 2/3 of the observed variability. Assuming that thermodynamic, ocean-atmosphere heat exchange plays the dominant role in tropical Atlantic SST variability on the seasonal to interannual time scale, we analyze its role in Nordeste rainfall predictability using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. Predictability experiments initialized with observed December SST show that thermodynamic coupling plays a significant role in enhancing the persistence of SST anomalies, both in the tropical Pacific and in the tropical Atlantic. We show that thermodynamic coupling is sufficient to provide fairly accurate forecasts of tropical Atlantic SST in the boreal spring that are significantly better than the persistence forecasts. The consequences for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall are analyzed.

Predictive Ensemble Decoding of Acoustical Features Explains Context-Dependent Receptive Fields.

PubMed

Yildiz, Izzet B; Mesgarani, Nima; Deneve, Sophie

2016-12-07

A primary goal of auditory neuroscience is to identify the sound features extracted and represented by auditory neurons. Linear encoding models, which describe neural responses as a function of the stimulus, have been primarily used for this purpose. Here, we provide theoretical arguments and experimental evidence in support of an alternative approach, based on decoding the stimulus from the neural response. We used a Bayesian normative approach to predict the responses of neurons detecting relevant auditory features, despite ambiguities and noise. We compared the model predictions to recordings from the primary auditory cortex of ferrets and found that: (1) the decoding filters of auditory neurons resemble the filters learned from the statistics of speech sounds; (2) the decoding model captures the dynamics of responses better than a linear encoding model of similar complexity; and (3) the decoding model accounts for the accuracy with which the stimulus is represented in neural activity, whereas linear encoding model performs very poorly. Most importantly, our model predicts that neuronal responses are fundamentally shaped by "explaining away," a divisive competition between alternative interpretations of the auditory scene. Neural responses in the auditory cortex are dynamic, nonlinear, and hard to predict. Traditionally, encoding models have been used to describe neural responses as a function of the stimulus. However, in addition to external stimulation, neural activity is strongly modulated by the responses of other neurons in the network. We hypothesized that auditory neurons aim to collectively decode their stimulus. In particular, a stimulus feature that is decoded (or explained away) by one neuron is not explained by another. We demonstrated that this novel Bayesian decoding model is better at capturing the dynamic responses of cortical neurons in ferrets. Whereas the linear encoding model poorly reflects selectivity of neurons, the decoding model can account for the strong nonlinearities observed in neural data. Copyright © 2016 Yildiz et al.

Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeVries, Phoebe M. R.; Evans, Eileen L.

2016-12-01

A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM < 4.0 × 1019 Pa s and ηM > 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.

Intraplate deformation, stress in the lithosphere and the driving mechanism for plate motions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albee, Arden L.

1993-01-01

The initial research proposed was to use the predictions of geodynamical models of mantle flow, combined with geodetic observations of intraplate strain and stress, to better constrain mantle convection and the driving mechanism for plate motions and deformation. It is only now that geodetic observations of intraplate strain are becoming sufficiently well resolved to make them useful for substantial geodynamical inference to be made. A model of flow in the mantle that explains almost 90 percent of the variance in the observed longwavelength nonhydrostatic geoid was developed.

Predicting Pre-planting Risk of Stagonospora nodorum blotch in Winter Wheat Using Machine Learning Models.

PubMed

Mehra, Lucky K; Cowger, Christina; Gross, Kevin; Ojiambo, Peter S

2016-01-01

Pre-planting factors have been associated with the late-season severity of Stagonospora nodorum blotch (SNB), caused by the fungal pathogen Parastagonospora nodorum, in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum). The relative importance of these factors in the risk of SNB has not been determined and this knowledge can facilitate disease management decisions prior to planting of the wheat crop. In this study, we examined the performance of multiple regression (MR) and three machine learning algorithms namely artificial neural networks, categorical and regression trees, and random forests (RF), in predicting the pre-planting risk of SNB in wheat. Pre-planting factors tested as potential predictor variables were cultivar resistance, latitude, longitude, previous crop, seeding rate, seed treatment, tillage type, and wheat residue. Disease severity assessed at the end of the growing season was used as the response variable. The models were developed using 431 disease cases (unique combinations of predictors) collected from 2012 to 2014 and these cases were randomly divided into training, validation, and test datasets. Models were evaluated based on the regression of observed against predicted severity values of SNB, sensitivity-specificity ROC analysis, and the Kappa statistic. A strong relationship was observed between late-season severity of SNB and specific pre-planting factors in which latitude, longitude, wheat residue, and cultivar resistance were the most important predictors. The MR model explained 33% of variability in the data, while machine learning models explained 47 to 79% of the total variability. Similarly, the MR model correctly classified 74% of the disease cases, while machine learning models correctly classified 81 to 83% of these cases. Results show that the RF algorithm, which explained 79% of the variability within the data, was the most accurate in predicting the risk of SNB, with an accuracy rate of 93%. The RF algorithm could allow early assessment of the risk of SNB, facilitating sound disease management decisions prior to planting of wheat.

Territoriality and Conflict Avoidance Explain Asociality (Solitariness) of the Endosymbiotic Pea Crab Tunicotheres moseri

PubMed Central

Ambrosio, Louis J.; Baeza, J. Antonio

2016-01-01

Host monopolization theory predicts symbiotic organisms inhabiting morphologically simple, relatively small and scarce hosts to live solitarily as a result of territorial behaviors. We tested this prediction with Tunicotheres moseri, an endosymbiotic crab dwelling in the atrial chamber of the morphologically simple, small, and relatively scarce ascidian Styela plicata. As predicted, natural populations of T. moseri inhabit ascidian hosts solitarily with greater frequency than expected by chance alone. Furthermore, laboratory experiments demonstrated that intruder crabs take significantly longer to colonize previously infected compared to uninfected hosts, indicating as expected, that resident crabs exhibit monopolization behaviors. While territoriality does occur, agonistic behaviors employed by T. moseri do not mirror the overt behaviors commonly reported for other territorial crustaceans. Documented double and triple cohabitations in the field coupled with laboratory observations demonstrating the almost invariable success of intruder crabs colonizing occupied hosts, suggest that territoriality is ineffective in completely explaining the solitary social habit of this species. Additional experiments showed that T. moseri juveniles and adults, when searching for ascidians use chemical cues to avoid hosts occupied by conspecifics. This conspecific avoidance behavior reported herein is a novel strategy most likely employed to preemptively resolve costly territorial conflicts. In general, this study supports predictions central to host monopolization theory, but also implies that alternative behavioral strategies (i.e., conflict avoidance) may be more important than originally thought in explaining the host use pattern of symbiotic organisms. PMID:26910474

Territoriality and Conflict Avoidance Explain Asociality (Solitariness) of the Endosymbiotic Pea Crab Tunicotheres moseri.

PubMed

Ambrosio, Louis J; Baeza, J Antonio

2016-01-01

Host monopolization theory predicts symbiotic organisms inhabiting morphologically simple, relatively small and scarce hosts to live solitarily as a result of territorial behaviors. We tested this prediction with Tunicotheres moseri, an endosymbiotic crab dwelling in the atrial chamber of the morphologically simple, small, and relatively scarce ascidian Styela plicata. As predicted, natural populations of T. moseri inhabit ascidian hosts solitarily with greater frequency than expected by chance alone. Furthermore, laboratory experiments demonstrated that intruder crabs take significantly longer to colonize previously infected compared to uninfected hosts, indicating as expected, that resident crabs exhibit monopolization behaviors. While territoriality does occur, agonistic behaviors employed by T. moseri do not mirror the overt behaviors commonly reported for other territorial crustaceans. Documented double and triple cohabitations in the field coupled with laboratory observations demonstrating the almost invariable success of intruder crabs colonizing occupied hosts, suggest that territoriality is ineffective in completely explaining the solitary social habit of this species. Additional experiments showed that T. moseri juveniles and adults, when searching for ascidians use chemical cues to avoid hosts occupied by conspecifics. This conspecific avoidance behavior reported herein is a novel strategy most likely employed to preemptively resolve costly territorial conflicts. In general, this study supports predictions central to host monopolization theory, but also implies that alternative behavioral strategies (i.e., conflict avoidance) may be more important than originally thought in explaining the host use pattern of symbiotic organisms.

Embedding A4 into left-right flavor symmetry: Tribimaximal neutrino mixing and fermion hierarchy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazzocchi, F.; Morisi, S.; Picariello, M.

2008-01-01

We address two fundamental aspects of flavor physics: the mass hierarchy and the large lepton mixing angles. On one side, left-right flavor symmetry realizes the democratic mass matrix patterns and explains why one family is much heavier than the others. On the other side, discrete flavor symmetry such as A4 leads to the observed tribimaximal mixing for the leptons. We show that, by explicitly breaking the left-right flavor symmetry into the diagonal A4, it is possible to explain both the observed charged fermion mass hierarchies and quark and lepton mixing angles. In particular we predict a heavy 3rd family, the tribimaximal mixing for the leptons, and we suggest a possible origin of the Cabibbo and other mixing angles for the quarks.

Reactor antineutrino shoulder explained by energy scale nonlinearities?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mention, G.; Vivier, M.; Gaffiot, J.; Lasserre, T.; Letourneau, A.; Materna, T.

2017-10-01

The Daya Bay, Double Chooz and RENO experiments recently observed a significant distortion in their detected reactor antineutrino spectra, being at odds with the current predictions. Although such a result suggests to revisit the current reactor antineutrino spectra modeling, an alternative scenario, which could potentially explain this anomaly, is explored in this letter. Using an appropriate statistical method, a study of the Daya Bay experiment energy scale is performed. While still being in agreement with the γ calibration data and 12B measured spectrum, it is shown that a O (1%) deviation of the energy scale reproduces the distortion observed in the Daya Bay spectrum, remaining within the quoted calibration uncertainties. Potential origins of such a deviation, which challenge the energy calibration of these detectors, are finally discussed.

SU(5) with nonuniversal gaugino masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajaib, M. Adeel

2018-02-01

We explore the sparticle spectroscopy of the supersymmetric SU(5) model with nonuniversal gaugino masses in light of latest experimental searches. We assume that the gaugino mass parameters are independent at the GUT scale. We find that the observed deviation in the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon can be explained in this model. The parameter space that explains this deviation predicts a heavy colored sparticle spectrum whereas the sleptons can be light. We also find a notable region of the parameter space that yields the desired relic abundance for dark matter. In addition, we analyze the model in light of latest limits from direct detection experiments and find that the parameter space corresponding to the observed deviation in the muon anomalous magnetic moment can be probed at some of the future direct detection experiments.

Experimental Observation of Two Features Unexpected from the Classical Theories of Rubber Elasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishi, Kengo; Fujii, Kenta; Chung, Ung-il; Shibayama, Mitsuhiro; Sakai, Takamasa

2017-12-01

Although the elastic modulus of a Gaussian chain network is thought to be successfully described by classical theories of rubber elasticity, such as the affine and phantom models, verification experiments are largely lacking owing to difficulties in precisely controlling of the network structure. We prepared well-defined model polymer networks experimentally, and measured the elastic modulus G for a broad range of polymer concentrations and connectivity probabilities, p . In our experiment, we observed two features that were distinct from those predicted by classical theories. First, we observed the critical behavior G ˜|p -pc|1.95 near the sol-gel transition. This scaling law is different from the prediction of classical theories, but can be explained by analogy between the electric conductivity of resistor networks and the elasticity of polymer networks. Here, pc is the sol-gel transition point. Furthermore, we found that the experimental G -p relations in the region above C* did not follow the affine or phantom theories. Instead, all the G /G0-p curves fell onto a single master curve when G was normalized by the elastic modulus at p =1 , G0. We show that the effective medium approximation for Gaussian chain networks explains this master curve.

On the Controls of Leaf-Water Oxygen Isotope Ratios in the Atmospheric Crassulacean Acid Metabolism Epiphyte Tillandsia usneoides1[W][OA

PubMed Central

Helliker, Brent R.

2011-01-01

Previous theoretical work showed that leaf-water isotope ratio (δ18OL) of Crassulacean acid metabolism epiphytes was controlled by the δ18O of atmospheric water vapor (δ18Oa), and observed δ18OL could be explained by both a non-steady-state model and a “maximum enrichment” steady-state model (δ18OL-M), the latter requiring only δ18Oa and relative humidity (h) as inputs. δ18OL, therefore, should contain an extractable record of δ18Oa. Previous empirical work supported this hypothesis but raised many questions. How does changing δ18Oa and h affect δ18OL? Do hygroscopic trichomes affect observed δ18OL? Are observations of changes in water content required for the prediction of δ18OL? Does the leaf need to be at full isotopic steady state for observed δ18OL to equal δ18OL-M? These questions were examined with a climate-controlled experimental system capable of holding δ18Oa constant for several weeks. Water adsorbed to trichomes required a correction ranging from 0.5‰ to 1‰. δ18OL could be predicted using constant values of water content and even total conductance. Tissue rehydration caused a transitory change in δ18OL, but the consequent increase in total conductance led to a tighter coupling with δ18Oa. The non-steady-state leaf water models explained observed δ18OL (y = 0.93*x − 0.07; r2 = 0.98) over a wide range of δ18Oa and h. Predictions of δ18OL-M agreed with observations of δ18OL (y = 0.87*x − 0.99; r2 = 0.92), and when h > 0.9, the leaf did not need to be at isotopic steady state for the δ18OL-M model to predict δ18OL in the Crassulacean acid metabolism epiphyte Tillandsia usneoides. PMID:21300917

On the controls of leaf-water oxygen isotope ratios in the atmospheric Crassulacean acid metabolism epiphyte Tillandsia usneoides.

PubMed

Helliker, Brent R

2011-04-01

Previous theoretical work showed that leaf-water isotope ratio (δ(18)O(L)) of Crassulacean acid metabolism epiphytes was controlled by the δ(18)O of atmospheric water vapor (δ(18)O(a)), and observed δ(18)O(L) could be explained by both a non-steady-state model and a "maximum enrichment" steady-state model (δ(18)O(L-M)), the latter requiring only δ(18)O(a) and relative humidity (h) as inputs. δ(18)O(L), therefore, should contain an extractable record of δ(18)O(a). Previous empirical work supported this hypothesis but raised many questions. How does changing δ(18)O(a) and h affect δ(18)O(L)? Do hygroscopic trichomes affect observed δ(18)O(L)? Are observations of changes in water content required for the prediction of δ(18)O(L)? Does the leaf need to be at full isotopic steady state for observed δ(18)O(L) to equal δ(18)O(L-M)? These questions were examined with a climate-controlled experimental system capable of holding δ(18)O(a) constant for several weeks. Water adsorbed to trichomes required a correction ranging from 0.5‰ to 1‰. δ(18)O(L) could be predicted using constant values of water content and even total conductance. Tissue rehydration caused a transitory change in δ(18)O(L), but the consequent increase in total conductance led to a tighter coupling with δ(18)O(a). The non-steady-state leaf water models explained observed δ(18)O(L) (y = 0.93*x - 0.07; r(2) = 0.98) over a wide range of δ(18)O(a) and h. Predictions of δ(18)O(L-M) agreed with observations of δ(18)O(L) (y = 0.87*x - 0.99; r(2) = 0.92), and when h > 0.9, the leaf did not need to be at isotopic steady state for the δ(18)O(L-M) model to predict δ(18)O(L) in the Crassulacean acid metabolism epiphyte Tillandsia usneoides.

Observational constraints on the inter-binary stellar flare hypothesis for the gamma-ray bursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, A. R.; Vahia, M. N.

1994-01-01

The Gamma Ray Observatory/Burst and Transient Source Experiment (GRO/BATSE) results on the Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs) have given an internally consistent set of observations of about 260 GRBs which have been released for analysis by the BATSE team. Using this database we investigate our earlier suggestion (Vahia and Rao, 1988) that GRBs are inter-binary stellar flares from a group of objects classified as Magnetically Active Stellar Systems (MASS) which includes flare stars, RS CVn binaries and cataclysmic variables. We show that there exists an observationally consistent parameter space for the number density, scale height and flare luminosity of MASS which explains the complete log(N) - log(P) distribution of GRBs as also the observed isotropic distribution. We further use this model to predict anisotropy in the GRB distribution at intermediate luminosities. We make definite predictions under the stellar flare hypothesis that can be tested in the near future.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yue; Reeves, Geoffrey D.; Cunningham, Gregory S.

Our study demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of using observations from low Earth orbit (LEO) to forecast and nowcast relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt. Furthermore, we first report a high cross-energy, cross-pitch-angle coherence discovered between the trapped MeV electrons and precipitating approximately hundreds (~100s) of keV electrons—observed by satellites with very different altitudes—with correlation coefficients as high as ≳ 0.85. We then tested the feasibility of applying linear prediction filters to LEO data to predict the arrival of new MeV electrons during geomagnetic storms, as well as their evolving distributions afterward, based on the coherence. Reliability of thesemore » predictive filters is quantified by the performance efficiency with values as high as 0.74 when driven merely by LEO observations (or up to 0.94 with the inclusion of in situ MeV electron measurements). Finally, a hypothesis based upon the wave-particle resonance theory is proposed to explain the coherence, and a first-principle electron tracing model yields supporting evidence.« less

Methane Bubble Flame Tower--A Spectacularly Engaging Way to Teach Density

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sandoval, Christopher

2012-01-01

This article presents a demonstration using methane bubble flame tower that offers a fun and relatively cheap way of demonstrating what happens when there is a density difference. Teachers can do this as a predict-observe-explain demonstration after the students have learned about density to extend their learning and get into some higher order…

The Tapioca Bomb: A Demonstration to Enhance Learning about Combustion and Chemical Safety

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keeratichamroen, Wasana; Dechsri, Precharn; Panijpan, Bhinyo; Ruenwongsa, Pintip

2010-01-01

In any demonstration to students, producing light and sound usually ensures interest and can enhance understanding and retention of the concepts involved. A guided inquiry (Predict, Observe, Explain: POE) approach was used to involve the students actively in their learning about the explosive combustion of fine flour particles in air in the…

Conceptual Resources in Self-Developed Explanatory Models: The Importance of Integrating Conscious and Intuitive Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheng, Meng-Fei; Brown, David E.

2010-01-01

This study explores the spontaneous explanatory models children construct, critique, and revise in the context of tasks in which children need to predict, observe, and explain phenomena involving magnetism. It further investigates what conceptual resources students use, and in what ways they use them, to construct explanatory models, and the…

Investigating the Effectiveness of a POE-Based Teaching Activity on Students' Understanding of Condensation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Costu, Bayram; Ayas, Alipasa; Niaz, Mansoor

2012-01-01

This article reports on the development of a Predict-Observe-Explain, POE-based teaching strategy to facilitate conceptual change and its effectiveness on student understanding of condensation. The sample consisted of 52 first-year students in primary science education department. Students' ideas were elicited using a test consisting of five probe…

Multiscale modelling of precipitation in concentrated alloys: from atomistic Monte Carlo simulations to cluster dynamics I thermodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lépinoux, J.; Sigli, C.

2018-01-01

In a recent paper, the authors showed how the clusters free energies are constrained by the coagulation probability, and explained various anomalies observed during the precipitation kinetics in concentrated alloys. This coagulation probability appeared to be a too complex function to be accurately predicted knowing only the cluster distribution in Cluster Dynamics (CD). Using atomistic Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, it is shown that during a transformation at constant temperature, after a short transient regime, the transformation occurs at quasi-equilibrium. It is proposed to use MC simulations until the system quasi-equilibrates then to switch to CD which is mean field but not limited by a box size like MC. In this paper, we explain how to take into account the information available before the quasi-equilibrium state to establish guidelines to safely predict the cluster free energies.

Volcano seismicity and ground deformation unveil the gravity-driven magma discharge dynamics of a volcanic eruption.

PubMed

Ripepe, Maurizio; Donne, Dario Delle; Genco, Riccardo; Maggio, Giuseppe; Pistolesi, Marco; Marchetti, Emanuele; Lacanna, Giorgio; Ulivieri, Giacomo; Poggi, Pasquale

2015-05-18

Effusive eruptions are explained as the mechanism by which volcanoes restore the equilibrium perturbed by magma rising in a chamber deep in the crust. Seismic, ground deformation and topographic measurements are compared with effusion rate during the 2007 Stromboli eruption, drawing an eruptive scenario that shifts our attention from the interior of the crust to the surface. The eruption is modelled as a gravity-driven drainage of magma stored in the volcanic edifice with a minor contribution of magma supplied at a steady rate from a deep reservoir. Here we show that the discharge rate can be predicted by the contraction of the volcano edifice and that the very-long-period seismicity migrates downwards, tracking the residual volume of magma in the shallow reservoir. Gravity-driven magma discharge dynamics explain the initially high discharge rates observed during eruptive crises and greatly influence our ability to predict the evolution of effusive eruptions.

Redox effects in ordinary chondrites and implications for asteroid spectrophotometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcsween, Harry Y., Jr.

1992-01-01

The sensitivity of reflectance spectra to mean ferrous iron content and olivine and pyroxene proportion enhancements in the course of metamorphic oxidation is presently used to examine whether metamorphically-induced ranges in mineralogy, and corresponding spectral parameters, may explain the observed variations in S-asteroid rotational spectra. The predicted spectral variations within any one chondrite class are, however, insufficient to account for S-asteroid rotational spectra, and predicted spectral-range slopes have a sign opposite to the rotational measurements. Metamorphic oxidation is found unable to account for S-asteroid rotational spectra.

Development of a Novel Simplified PBPK Absorption Model to Explain the Higher Relative Bioavailability of the OROS® Formulation of Oxybutynin.

PubMed

Olivares-Morales, Andrés; Ghosh, Avijit; Aarons, Leon; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin

2016-11-01

A new minimal Segmented Transit and Absorption model (mSAT) model has been recently proposed and combined with intrinsic intestinal effective permeability (P eff,int ) to predict the regional gastrointestinal (GI) absorption (f abs ) of several drugs. Herein, this model was extended and applied for the prediction of oral bioavailability and pharmacokinetics of oxybutynin and its enantiomers to provide a mechanistic explanation of the higher relative bioavailability observed for oxybutynin's modified-release OROS® formulation compared to its immediate-release (IR) counterpart. The expansion of the model involved the incorporation of mechanistic equations for the prediction of release, transit, dissolution, permeation and first-pass metabolism. The predicted pharmacokinetics of oxybutynin enantiomers after oral administration for both the IR and OROS® formulations were in close agreement with the observed data. The predicted absolute bioavailability for the IR formulation was within 5% of the observed value, and the model adequately predicted the higher relative bioavailability observed for the OROS® formulation vs. the IR counterpart. From the model predictions, it can be noticed that the higher bioavailability observed for the OROS® formulation was mainly attributable to differences in the intestinal availability (F G ) rather than due to a higher colonic f abs , thus confirming previous hypotheses. The predicted f abs was almost 70% lower for the OROS® formulation compared to the IR formulation, whereas the F G was almost eightfold higher than in the IR formulation. These results provide further support to the hypothesis of an increased F G as the main factor responsible for the higher bioavailability of oxybutynin's OROS® formulation vs. the IR.

Biomarker progressions explain higher variability in stage-specific cognitive decline than baseline values in Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Dodge, Hiroko H; Zhu, Jian; Harvey, Danielle; Saito, Naomi; Silbert, Lisa C; Kaye, Jeffrey A; Koeppe, Robert A; Albin, Roger L

2014-11-01

It is unknown which commonly used Alzheimer disease (AD) biomarker values-baseline or progression-best predict longitudinal cognitive decline. 526 subjects from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). ADNI composite memory and executive scores were the primary outcomes. Individual-specific slope of the longitudinal trajectory of each biomarker was first estimated. These estimates and observed baseline biomarker values were used as predictors of cognitive declines. Variability in cognitive declines explained by baseline biomarker values was compared with variability explained by biomarker progression values. About 40% of variability in memory and executive function declines was explained by ventricular volume progression among mild cognitive impairment patients. A total of 84% of memory and 65% of executive function declines were explained by fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) score progression and ventricular volume progression, respectively, among AD patients. For most biomarkers, biomarker progressions explained higher variability in cognitive decline than biomarker baseline values. This has important implications for clinical trials targeted to modify AD biomarkers. Copyright © 2014 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tropical forests are non-equilibrium ecosystems governed by interspecific competition based on universal 1/6 niche width.

PubMed

Fort, Hugo; Inchausti, Pablo

2013-01-01

Tropical forests are mega-diverse ecosystems that display complex and non-equilibrium dynamics. However, theoretical approaches have largely focused on explaining steady-state behaviour and fitting snapshots of data. Here we show that local and niche interspecific competition can realistically and parsimoniously explain the observed non-equilibrium regime of permanent plots of nine tropical forests, in eight different countries. Our spatially-explicit model, besides predicting with accuracy the main biodiversity metrics for these plots, can also reproduce their dynamics. A central finding is that tropical tree species have a universal niche width of approximately 1/6 of the niche axis that echoes the observed widespread convergence in their functional traits enabling them to exploit similar resources and to coexist despite of having large niche overlap. This niche width yields an average ratio of 0.25 between interspecific and intraspecific competition that corresponds to an intermediate value between the extreme claims of the neutral model and the classical niche-based model of community assembly (where interspecific competition is dominant). In addition, our model can explain and yield observed spatial patterns that classical niche-based and neutral theories cannot.

Observational viability and stability of nonlocal cosmology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deser, S.; Woodard, R.P., E-mail: deser@brandeis.edu, E-mail: woodard@phys.ufl.edu

2013-11-01

We show that the nonlocal gravity models, proposed to explain current cosmic acceleration without dark energy, pass two essential tests: first, they can be defined so as not to alter the, observationally correct, general relativity predictions for gravitationally bound systems. Second, they are stable, ghost-free, with no additional excitations beyond those of general relativity. In this they differ from their, ghostful, localized versions. The systems' initial value constraints are the same as in general relativity, and our nonlocal modifications never convert the original gravitons into ghosts.

Task relevance modulates the behavioural and neural effects of sensory predictions

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Nobre, Anna C.

2017-01-01

The brain is thought to generate internal predictions to optimize behaviour. However, it is unclear whether predictions signalling is an automatic brain function or depends on task demands. Here, we manipulated the spatial/temporal predictability of visual targets, and the relevance of spatial/temporal information provided by auditory cues. We used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to measure participants’ brain activity during task performance. Task relevance modulated the influence of predictions on behaviour: spatial/temporal predictability improved spatial/temporal discrimination accuracy, but not vice versa. To explain these effects, we used behavioural responses to estimate subjective predictions under an ideal-observer model. Model-based time-series of predictions and prediction errors (PEs) were associated with dissociable neural responses: predictions correlated with cue-induced beta-band activity in auditory regions and alpha-band activity in visual regions, while stimulus-bound PEs correlated with gamma-band activity in posterior regions. Crucially, task relevance modulated these spectral correlates, suggesting that current goals influence PE and prediction signalling. PMID:29206225

Modelling seasonal variations in presentations at a paediatric emergency department.

PubMed

Takase, Miyuki; Carlin, John

2012-09-01

Overcrowding is a phenomenon commonly observed at emergency departments (EDs) in many hospitals, and negatively impacts patients, healthcare professionals and organisations. Health care organisations are expected to act proactively to cope with a high patient volume by understanding and predicting the patterns of ED presentations. The aim of this study was, therefore, to identify the patterns of patient flow at a paediatric ED in order to assist the management of EDs. Data for ED presentations were collected from the Royal Children's Hospital in Melbourne, Australia, with the time-frame of July 2003 to June 2008. A linear regression analysis with trigonometric functions was used to identify the pattern of patient flow at the ED. The results showed that a logarithm of the daily average ED presentations was increasing exponentially (as explained by 0.004t + 0.00005t2 with t representing time, p<0.001). The model also indicated that there was a yearly oscillation in the frequency of ED presentations, in which lower frequencies were observed in summer and higher frequencies during winter (as explained by -0.046 sin(2(pi)t/12)-0.083 cos(2(pi)t/12), p<0.001). In addition, the variation of the oscillations was increasing over time (as explained by -0.002t*sin(2(pi)t/12)-0.001t*cos(2(pi)t/12), p<0.05). The identified regression model explained a total of 96% of the variance in the pattern of ED presentations. This model can be used to understand the trend of the current patient flow as well as to predict the future flow at the ED. Such an understanding will assist health care managers to prepare resources and environment more effectively to cope with overcrowding.

Befriending Risky Peers: Factors Driving Adolescents’ Selection of Friends with Similar Marijuana Use

PubMed Central

de la Haye, Kayla; Green, Harold D.; Pollard, Michael S.; Kennedy, David P.; Tucker, Joan S.

2014-01-01

Adolescents often befriend peers who are similar to themselves on a range of demographic, behavioral, and social characteristics, including substance use. Similarities in lifetime history of marijuana use have even been found to predict adolescent friendships, and we examine whether this finding is explained by youth’s selection of friends who are similar on a range of more proximate, observable characteristics that are risk factors for marijuana use. Using two waves of individual and social network data from two high schools that participated in Add Health (N = 1,612; 52.7% male), we apply longitudinal models for social networks to test whether or not several observable risky attributes (psychological, behavioral, and social) predict adolescent friendship choices, and if these preferences explain friend’s similarities on lifetime marijuana use. Findings show that similarities on several risk factors predict friendship choices, however controlling for this, the preference to befriend peers with a similar history of marijuana use largely persists. The results highlight the range of social selection processes that lead to similarities in marijuana use among friends and larger peer groups, and that also give rise to friendship groups whose members share similar risk factors for substance use. Friends with high “collective risk” are likely to be important targets for preventing the onset and social diffusion of substance use in adolescents. PMID:25365913

High-energy gamma-ray and neutrino production in star-forming galaxies across cosmic time: Difficulties in explaining the IceCube data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudoh, Takahiro; Totani, Tomonori; Kawanaka, Norita

2018-06-01

We present new theoretical modeling to predict the luminosity and spectrum of gamma-ray and neutrino emission of a star-forming galaxy, from the star formation rate (ψ), gas mass (Mgas), stellar mass, and disk size, taking into account production, propagation, and interactions of cosmic rays. The model reproduces the observed gamma-ray luminosities of nearby galaxies detected by Fermi better than the simple power-law models as a function of ψ or ψMgas. This model is then used to predict the cosmic background flux of gamma-rays and neutrinos from star-forming galaxies, by using a semi-analytical model of cosmological galaxy formation that reproduces many observed quantities of local and high-redshift galaxies. Calibration of the model using gamma-ray luminosities of nearby galaxies allows us to make a more reliable prediction than previous studies. In our baseline model, star-forming galaxies produce about 20% of the isotropic gamma-ray background unresolved by Fermi, and only 0.5% of IceCube neutrinos. Even with an extreme model assuming a hard injection cosmic-ray spectral index of 2.0 for all galaxies, at most 22% of IceCube neutrinos can be accounted for. These results indicate that it is difficult to explain most of the IceCube neutrinos by star-forming galaxies, without violating the gamma-ray constraints from nearby galaxies.

High-energy gamma-ray and neutrino production in star-forming galaxies across cosmic time: Difficulties in explaining the IceCube data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudoh, Takahiro; Totani, Tomonori; Kawanaka, Norita

2018-04-01

We present new theoretical modeling to predict the luminosity and spectrum of gamma-ray and neutrino emission of a star-forming galaxy, from the star formation rate (ψ), gas mass (Mgas), stellar mass, and disk size, taking into account production, propagation, and interactions of cosmic rays. The model reproduces the observed gamma-ray luminosities of nearby galaxies detected by Fermi better than the simple power-law models as a function of ψ or ψMgas. This model is then used to predict the cosmic background flux of gamma-rays and neutrinos from star-forming galaxies, by using a semi-analytical model of cosmological galaxy formation that reproduces many observed quantities of local and high-redshift galaxies. Calibration of the model using gamma-ray luminosities of nearby galaxies allows us to make a more reliable prediction than previous studies. In our baseline model, star-forming galaxies produce about 20% of the isotropic gamma-ray background unresolved by Fermi, and only 0.5% of IceCube neutrinos. Even with an extreme model assuming a hard injection cosmic-ray spectral index of 2.0 for all galaxies, at most 22% of IceCube neutrinos can be accounted for. These results indicate that it is difficult to explain most of the IceCube neutrinos by star-forming galaxies, without violating the gamma-ray constraints from nearby galaxies.

Gravitational redshift of galaxies in clusters as predicted by general relativity.

PubMed

Wojtak, Radosław; Hansen, Steen H; Hjorth, Jens

2011-09-28

The theoretical framework of cosmology is mainly defined by gravity, of which general relativity is the current model. Recent tests of general relativity within the Lambda Cold Dark Matter (ΛCDM) model have found a concordance between predictions and the observations of the growth rate and clustering of the cosmic web. General relativity has not hitherto been tested on cosmological scales independently of the assumptions of the ΛCDM model. Here we report an observation of the gravitational redshift of light coming from galaxies in clusters at the 99 per cent confidence level, based on archival data. Our measurement agrees with the predictions of general relativity and its modification created to explain cosmic acceleration without the need for dark energy (the f(R) theory), but is inconsistent with alternative models designed to avoid the presence of dark matter. © 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, R.; Sáez, D., E-mail: rdale@umh.es, E-mail: diego.saez@uv.es

The vector-tensor (VT) theory of gravitation revisited in this article was studied in previous papers, where it was proved that VT works and deserves attention. New observational data and numerical codes have motivated further development which is presented here. New research has been planed with the essential aim of proving that current cosmological observations, including Planck data, baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), and so on, may be explained with VT, a theory which accounts for a kind of dark energy which has the same equation of state as vacuum. New versions of the codes CAMB and COSMOMC have been designed formore » applications to VT, and the resulting versions have been used to get the cosmological parameters of the VT model at suitable confidence levels. The parameters to be estimated are the same as in general relativity (GR), plus a new parameter D . For D = 0, VT linear cosmological perturbations reduces to those of GR, but the VT background may explain dark energy. The fits between observations and VT predictions lead to non vanishing | D | upper limits at the 1σ confidence level. The value D = 0 is admissible at this level, but this value is not that of the best fit in any case. Results strongly suggest that VT may explain current observations, at least, as well as GR; with the advantage that, as it is proved in this paper, VT has an additional parameter which facilitates adjustments to current observational data.« less

Differentiation and cryovolcanism on Charon: A view before and after New Horizons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desch, S. J.; Neveu, M.

2017-05-01

Before the arrival of the New Horizons probe at the Pluto-Charon system, we developed a series of models that predicted that Kuiper Belt Objects, even as small and as cold as Charon, have experienced internal ice-rock differentiation and possibly cryovolcanism. Confronting these predictions is a wide array of spectroscopy, imagery, and other data from New Horizons. In this article we compare the predictions against the new observations, and find that they largely support the expected history of the Pluto system and the evolution of Charon. Following the collision of two partially differentiated impactors with radii ≈1000 km, a disk of material formed around Pluto, from which Charon and Pluto's other moons formed. Because the impactors did not completely differentiate, the disk contained rocky material from their crusts, explaining the moons' different densities and compositions. Long-lived radionuclides in Charon, assisted by ammonia antifreeze in the ice, melted ice and created a subsurface ocean that eventually refroze ≈ 1.7 - 2.5 Gyr ago. The freezing of this ocean would have created extensional stresses that possibly created Serenity Chasma, and could have led to widespread resurfacing, explaining the apparently younger age of Vulcan Planum. Buildup of radiogenic heat then created a second, smaller ocean that refroze 0.5-1.7 Gyr ago. As it froze, cryovolcanism would have been enabled, possibly creating Kubrick Mons. Charon's ;moated mountains; such as Kubrick Mons have a natural explanation as cryovolcanoes depressing a thin lithosphere over a cryomagma chamber. We offer further predictions about other aspects of Charon's surface. Our previous predictions that Charon is a world shaped by geological activity have been largely borne out by New Horizons observations.

Dynamic divisive normalization predicts time-varying value coding in decision-related circuits.

PubMed

Louie, Kenway; LoFaro, Thomas; Webb, Ryan; Glimcher, Paul W

2014-11-26

Normalization is a widespread neural computation, mediating divisive gain control in sensory processing and implementing a context-dependent value code in decision-related frontal and parietal cortices. Although decision-making is a dynamic process with complex temporal characteristics, most models of normalization are time-independent and little is known about the dynamic interaction of normalization and choice. Here, we show that a simple differential equation model of normalization explains the characteristic phasic-sustained pattern of cortical decision activity and predicts specific normalization dynamics: value coding during initial transients, time-varying value modulation, and delayed onset of contextual information. Empirically, we observe these predicted dynamics in saccade-related neurons in monkey lateral intraparietal cortex. Furthermore, such models naturally incorporate a time-weighted average of past activity, implementing an intrinsic reference-dependence in value coding. These results suggest that a single network mechanism can explain both transient and sustained decision activity, emphasizing the importance of a dynamic view of normalization in neural coding. Copyright © 2014 the authors 0270-6474/14/3416046-12$15.00/0.

Influence of Wind Model Performance on Wave Forecasts of the Naval Oceanographic Office

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gay, P. S.; Edwards, K. L.

2017-12-01

Significant discrepancies between the Naval Oceanographic Office's significant wave height (SWH) predictions and observations have been noted in some model domains. The goal of this study is to evaluate these discrepancies and identify to what extent inaccuracies in the wind predictions may explain inaccuracies in SWH predictions. A one-year time series of data is evaluated at various locations in Southern California and eastern Florida. Correlations are generally quite good, ranging from 73% at Pendleton to 88% at both Santa Barbara, California, and Cape Canaveral, Florida. Correlations for month-long periods off Southern California drop off significantly in late spring through early autumn - less so off eastern Florida - likely due to weaker local wind seas and generally smaller SWH in addition to the influence of remotely-generated swell, which may not propagate accurately into and through the wave models. The results of this study suggest that it is likely that a change in meteorological and/or oceanographic conditions explains the change in model performance, partially as a result of a seasonal reduction in wind model performance in the summer months.

Understanding earthquake from the granular physics point of view — Causes of earthquake, earthquake precursors and predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Kunquan; Hou, Meiying; Jiang, Zehui; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Gang; Liu, Jixing

2018-03-01

We treat the earth crust and mantle as large scale discrete matters based on the principles of granular physics and existing experimental observations. Main outcomes are: A granular model of the structure and movement of the earth crust and mantle is established. The formation mechanism of the tectonic forces, which causes the earthquake, and a model of propagation for precursory information are proposed. Properties of the seismic precursory information and its relevance with the earthquake occurrence are illustrated, and principle of ways to detect the effective seismic precursor is elaborated. The mechanism of deep-focus earthquake is also explained by the jamming-unjamming transition of the granular flow. Some earthquake phenomena which were previously difficult to understand are explained, and the predictability of the earthquake is discussed. Due to the discrete nature of the earth crust and mantle, the continuum theory no longer applies during the quasi-static seismological process. In this paper, based on the principles of granular physics, we study the causes of earthquakes, earthquake precursors and predictions, and a new understanding, different from the traditional seismological viewpoint, is obtained.

Systematic bias of correlation coefficient may explain negative accuracy of genomic prediction.

PubMed

Zhou, Yao; Vales, M Isabel; Wang, Aoxue; Zhang, Zhiwu

2017-09-01

Accuracy of genomic prediction is commonly calculated as the Pearson correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed phenotypes in the inference population by using cross-validation analysis. More frequently than expected, significant negative accuracies of genomic prediction have been reported in genomic selection studies. These negative values are surprising, given that the minimum value for prediction accuracy should hover around zero when randomly permuted data sets are analyzed. We reviewed the two common approaches for calculating the Pearson correlation and hypothesized that these negative accuracy values reflect potential bias owing to artifacts caused by the mathematical formulas used to calculate prediction accuracy. The first approach, Instant accuracy, calculates correlations for each fold and reports prediction accuracy as the mean of correlations across fold. The other approach, Hold accuracy, predicts all phenotypes in all fold and calculates correlation between the observed and predicted phenotypes at the end of the cross-validation process. Using simulated and real data, we demonstrated that our hypothesis is true. Both approaches are biased downward under certain conditions. The biases become larger when more fold are employed and when the expected accuracy is low. The bias of Instant accuracy can be corrected using a modified formula. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Explaining prescription drug use and expenditures using the adjusted clinical groups case-mix system in the population of British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Hanley, Gillian E; Morgan, Steve; Reid, Robert J

2010-05-01

Given that prescription drugs have become a major financial component of health care, there is an increased need to explain variations in the use of and expenditure on medicines. Case-mix systems built from existing administrative datasets may prove very useful for such prediction. We estimated the concurrent and prospective predictive validity of the adjusted clinical groups (ACG) system in pharmaceutical research and compared the ACG system with the Charlson index of comorbidity. We ran a generalized linear models to examine the predictive validity of the ACG system and the Charlson index and report the correlation between the predicted and observed expenditures. We reported mean predictive ratios across medical condition and cost-defined groups. When predicting use of medicines, we used C-statistics to summarize the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The 3,908,533 British Columbia residents who were registered for the universal health care plan for 275+ days in the calendar years 2004 and 2005. Outcomes were total pharmaceutical expenditures, use of any medicines, and use of medicines from 4+ different therapeutic categories. The ACG case mix system predicted drug expenditures better than the Charlson index. The mean predictive ratios for the ACG system models were all within 4% of the actual costs when examining medical condition group and the C-stats for the 2 dichotomous outcomes were between 0.82 and 0.89. ACG case-mix adjusters are a valuable predictor of pharmaceutical use and expenditures with much higher predictive power than age, sex, and the Charlson index of comorbidity.

Increased sensory noise and not muscle weakness explains changes in non-stepping postural responses following stance perturbations in healthy elderly.

PubMed

Afschrift, Maarten; De Groote, Friedl; Verschueren, Sabine; Jonkers, Ilse

2018-01-01

The response to stance perturbations changes with age. The shift from an ankle to a hip strategy with increasing perturbation magnitude occurs at lower accelerations in older than in young adults. This strategy shift has been related to age-related changes in muscle and sensory function. However, the effect of isolated changes in muscle or sensory function on the responses following stance perturbations cannot be determined experimentally since changes in muscle and sensory function occur simultaneously. Therefore, we used predictive simulations to estimate the effect of isolated changes in (rates of change in) maximal joint torques, functional base of support, and sensory noise on the response to backward platform translations. To evaluate whether these modeled changes in muscle and sensory function could explain the observed changes in strategy; simulated postural responses with a torque-driven double inverted pendulum model controlled using optimal state feedback were compared to measured postural responses in ten healthy young and ten healthy older adults. The experimentally observed peak hip angle during the response was significantly larger (5°) and the functional base of support was smaller (0.04m) in the older than in the young adults but peak joint torques and rates of joint torque were similar during the recovery. The addition of noise to the sensed states in the predictive simulations could explain the observed increase in peak hip angle in the elderly, whereas changes in muscle function could not. Hence, our results suggest that strength training alone might be insufficient to improve postural control in elderly. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of internal noise methods for Hotelling observers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yani; Pham, Binh T.; Eckstein, Miguel P.

2005-04-01

Including internal noise in computer model observers to degrade model observer performance to human levels is a common method to allow for quantitatively comparisons of human and model performance. In this paper, we studied two different types of methods for injecting internal noise to Hotelling model observers. The first method adds internal noise to the output of the individual channels: a) Independent non-uniform channel noise, b) Independent uniform channel noise. The second method adds internal noise to the decision variable arising from the combination of channel responses: a) internal noise standard deviation proportional to decision variable's standard deviation due to the external noise, b) internal noise standard deviation proportional to decision variable's variance caused by the external noise. We tested the square window Hotelling observer (HO), channelized Hotelling observer (CHO), and Laguerre-Gauss Hotelling observer (LGHO). The studied task was detection of a filling defect of varying size/shape in one of four simulated arterial segment locations with real x-ray angiography backgrounds. Results show that the internal noise method that leads to the best prediction of human performance differs across the studied models observers. The CHO model best predicts human observer performance with the channel internal noise. The HO and LGHO best predict human observer performance with the decision variable internal noise. These results might help explain why previous studies have found different results on the ability of each Hotelling model to predict human performance. Finally, the present results might guide researchers with the choice of method to include internal noise into their Hotelling models.

Small Schools Science Curriculum, K-3: Reading, Language Arts, Mathematics, Science, Social Studies. Scope, Objectives, Activities, Resources, Monitoring Procedures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartl, David, Ed.; And Others

Learning objectives and suggested activities, monitoring procedures and resources for the Washington K-3 Small Schools Science Curriculum are based on the rationale that "young children need the opportunity to observe, classify, predict, test ideas again and again in a variety of contexts, ask questions, explain, discuss ideas, fail, and succeed.…

The Use of Interactive Computer Animations Based on POE as a Presentation Tool in Primary Science Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akpinar, Ercan

2014-01-01

This study investigates the effects of using interactive computer animations based on predict-observe-explain (POE) as a presentation tool on primary school students' understanding of the static electricity concepts. A quasi-experimental pre-test/post-test control group design was utilized in this study. The experiment group consisted of 30…

Do macroeconomic contractions induce or 'harvest' suicides? A test of competing hypotheses.

PubMed

Gemmill, Alison; Falconi, April; Karasek, Deborah; Hartig, Terry; Anderson, Elizabeth; Catalano, Ralph

2015-11-01

Researchers often invoke a mortality displacement or 'harvesting' mechanism to explain mortality patterns, such that those with underlying health vulnerabilities die sooner than expected in response to environmental phenomena, such as heat waves, cold spells and air pollution. It is unclear if this displacement mechanism might also explain observed increases in suicide following economic contraction, or if suicides are induced in persons otherwise unlikely to engage in self-destructive behaviour. Here, we test two competing hypotheses explaining an observed increase in suicides following unemployment-induction or displacement. We apply time series methods to monthly suicide and unemployment data from Sweden for the years 2000-2011. Tests are conducted separately for working age (20-64 years old) men and women as well as older (aged 65 years and older) men and women. Displacement appeared among older men and women; an unexpected rise in unemployment predicted an increase in suicides 6 months later, followed by a significant decrease 8 months later. Induction appeared among working age men, but not among working age women; an unexpected rise in unemployment predicted an increase in suicides 4-6 months later. Displacement and induction both appear to have operated following unexpected labour market contractions in Sweden, though with different population segments. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Quantitative Testing of Bedrock Incision Models, Clearwater River, WA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomkin, J. H.; Brandon, M.; Pazzaglia, F.; Barbour, J.; Willet, S.

2001-12-01

The topographic evolution of many active orogens is dominated by the process of bedrock channel incision. Several incision models based around the detachment limited shear-stress model (or stream power model) which employs an area (A) and slope (S) power law (E = K Sn Am) have been proposed to explain this process. They require quantitative assessment. We evaluate the proposed incision models by comparing their predictions with observations obtained from a river in a tectonically active mountain range: the Clearwater River in northwestern Washington State. Previous work on river terraces along the Clearwater have provided long-term incision rates for the river, and in conjunction with previous fission track studies it has also been determined that there is a long-term balance between river incision and rock uplift. This steady-state incision rate data allows us, through the use of inversion methods and statistical tests, to determine the applicability of the different incision models for the Clearwater. None of the models successfully explain the observations. This conclusion particularly applies to the commonly used detachment limited shear-stress model (or stream power model), which has a physically implausible best fit solution and systematic residuals for all the predicted combinations of m and n.

Coulomb Blockade in a Two-Dimensional Conductive Polymer Monolayer.

PubMed

Akai-Kasaya, M; Okuaki, Y; Nagano, S; Mitani, T; Kuwahara, Y

2015-11-06

Electronic transport was investigated in poly(3-hexylthiophene-2,5-diyl) monolayers. At low temperatures, nonlinear behavior was observed in the current-voltage characteristics, and a nonzero threshold voltage appeared that increased with decreasing temperature. The current-voltage characteristics could be best fitted using a power law. These results suggest that the nonlinear conductivity can be explained using a Coulomb blockade (CB) mechanism. A model is proposed in which an isotropic extended charge state exists, as predicted by quantum calculations, and percolative charge transport occurs within an array of small conductive islands. Using quantitatively evaluated capacitance values for the islands, this model was found to be capable of explaining the observed experimental data. It is, therefore, suggested that percolative charge transport based on the CB effect is a significant factor giving rise to nonlinear conductivity in organic materials.

Ensemble projections of wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations over the western United States in the mid-21st century

PubMed Central

Yue, Xu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Kaplan, Jed O.

2013-01-01

We estimate future wildfire activity over the western United States during the mid-21st century (2046–2065), based on results from 15 climate models following the A1B scenario. We develop fire prediction models by regressing meteorological variables from the current and previous years together with fire indexes onto observed regional area burned. The regressions explain 0.25–0.60 of the variance in observed annual area burned during 1980–2004, depending on the ecoregion. We also parameterize daily area burned with temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. This approach explains ~0.5 of the variance in observed area burned over forest ecoregions but shows no predictive capability in the semi-arid regions of Nevada and California. By applying the meteorological fields from 15 climate models to our fire prediction models, we quantify the robustness of our wildfire projections at mid-century. We calculate increases of 24–124% in area burned using regressions and 63–169% with the parameterization. Our projections are most robust in the southwestern desert, where all GCMs predict significant (p<0.05) meteorological changes. For forested ecoregions, more GCMs predict significant increases in future area burned with the parameterization than with the regressions, because the latter approach is sensitive to hydrological variables that show large inter-model variability in the climate projections. The parameterization predicts that the fire season lengthens by 23 days in the warmer and drier climate at mid-century. Using a chemical transport model, we find that wildfire emissions will increase summertime surface organic carbon aerosol over the western United States by 46–70% and black carbon by 20–27% at midcentury, relative to the present day. The pollution is most enhanced during extreme episodes: above the 84th percentile of concentrations, OC increases by ~90% and BC by ~50%, while visibility decreases from 130 km to 100 km in 32 Federal Class 1 areas in Rocky Mountains Forest. PMID:24015109

Can primordial magnetic fields seeded by electroweak strings cause an alignment of quasar axes on cosmological scales?

PubMed

Poltis, Robert; Stojkovic, Dejan

2010-10-15

The decay of nontopological electroweak strings may leave an observable imprint in the Universe today in the form of primordial magnetic fields. Protogalaxies preferentially tend to form with their axis of rotation parallel to an external magnetic field, and, moreover, an external magnetic field produces torque which tends to align the galaxy axis with the magnetic field. We demonstrate that the shape of a magnetic field left over from two looped electroweak strings can explain the observed nontrivial alignment of quasar polarization vectors and make predictions for future observations.

Formation and evolution of Lakshmi Planum, Venus: Assessment of models using observations from geological mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, M. A.; Head, J. W.

2008-12-01

Detailed geological analysis of the Lakshmi Planum region of western Ishtar Terra results in the establishment of the sequence of major events during the formation and evolution of western Ishtar Terra, an important and somewhat unique area on Venus characterized by a raised volcanic plateau surrounded by distinctive folded mountain belts, such as Maxwell Montes. These mapping results and the stratigraphic and structural relationships provide a basis for addressing the complicated problem of Lakshmi Planum formation and for testing the suite of models previously proposed to explain this structure. We review and classify previous models of formation for western Ishtar Terra into "downwelling" models (generally involving convergence and underthrusting) and "upwelling" models (generally involving plume-like upwelling and divergence). The interpreted nature of units and the sequence of events derived from geological mapping are in contrast to the predictions of the divergent models. The major contradictions are as follows: (1) The very likely presence of an ancient (craton-like) tessera massif in the core of Lakshmi, which is inconsistent with the model of formation of Lakshmi due to rise and collapse of a mantle diapir; (2) The absence of rift zones in the interior of Lakshmi that are predicted by the divergent models; (3) The apparent migration of volcanic activity toward the center of Lakshmi, whereas divergent models predict the opposite trend; (4) The abrupt cessation of ridges of the mountain ranges at the edge of Lakshmi Planum and propagation of these ridges over hundreds of kilometers outside Lakshmi; the divergent models predict the opposite progression in the development of major contractional features. In contrast, convergent models of formation and evolution of Lakshmi Planum appear to be more consistent with the observations and explain this structure by collision and underthrusting/subduction of lower-lying plains with the elevated and rigid block of tessera. These models are capable of explaining formation of the major features of western Ishtar (for example, the mountain belts), the sequences of events, and principal volcanic and tectonic trends during the evolution of Lakshmi. To explain the pronounced north-south asymmetry of Lakshmi these models need to consider the likelihood that the major focal points of collision are at the north and north-west margins of the plateau. We note that pure downwelling models, however, face three important difficulties: (1) The possibly unrealistically long time span that appears to be required to produce the major features of Lakshmi; (2) The strong north-south asymmetry of the Planum; the pure downwelling models predict the formation of a more symmetrical structure; and (3) The absence of radial contractional structures (arches and ridges) in the interior of Lakshmi that would represent the predictions of the downwelling models.

Statistical analysis for understanding and predicting battery degradations in real-life electric vehicle use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barré, Anthony; Suard, Frédéric; Gérard, Mathias; Montaru, Maxime; Riu, Delphine

2014-01-01

This paper describes the statistical analysis of recorded data parameters of electrical battery ageing during electric vehicle use. These data permit traditional battery ageing investigation based on the evolution of the capacity fade and resistance raise. The measured variables are examined in order to explain the correlation between battery ageing and operating conditions during experiments. Such study enables us to identify the main ageing factors. Then, detailed statistical dependency explorations present the responsible factors on battery ageing phenomena. Predictive battery ageing models are built from this approach. Thereby results demonstrate and quantify a relationship between variables and battery ageing global observations, and also allow accurate battery ageing diagnosis through predictive models.

Prediction of recirculation zones in isothermal coaxial jet flows relevant to combustors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nallasamy, M.

1987-01-01

The characteristics of the recirculation zones in confined coaxial turbulent jets are investigated numerically employing the kappa - epsilon turbulence model. The geometrical arrangement corresponds to the experimental study of Owen (AIAA J. 1976) and the investigation is undertaken to provide information for isothermal flow relevant to combustor flows. For the first time, the shape, size, and location of the recirculation zones for the above experimental configuration are correctly predicted. The processes leading to the observed results are explained. Detailed comparisons of the prediction with measurements are made. It is shown that the recirculation zones are very sensitive to the central jet exit configuration and the velocity ratio of the jets.

A novel principal component analysis for spatially misaligned multivariate air pollution data.

PubMed

Jandarov, Roman A; Sheppard, Lianne A; Sampson, Paul D; Szpiro, Adam A

2017-01-01

We propose novel methods for predictive (sparse) PCA with spatially misaligned data. These methods identify principal component loading vectors that explain as much variability in the observed data as possible, while also ensuring the corresponding principal component scores can be predicted accurately by means of spatial statistics at locations where air pollution measurements are not available. This will make it possible to identify important mixtures of air pollutants and to quantify their health effects in cohort studies, where currently available methods cannot be used. We demonstrate the utility of predictive (sparse) PCA in simulated data and apply the approach to annual averages of particulate matter speciation data from national Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulatory monitors.

Scalable Joint Models for Reliable Uncertainty-Aware Event Prediction.

PubMed

Soleimani, Hossein; Hensman, James; Saria, Suchi

2017-08-21

Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty due to missingness. Alternatively, state-of-the-art joint modeling techniques can be used for jointly modeling the longitudinal and event data and compute event probabilities conditioned on the longitudinal observations. These approaches, however, make strong parametric assumptions and do not easily scale to multivariate signals with many observations. Our proposed approach consists of several key innovations. First, we develop a flexible and scalable joint model based upon sparse multiple-output Gaussian processes. Unlike state-of-the-art joint models, the proposed model can explain highly challenging structure including non-Gaussian noise while scaling to large data. Second, we derive an optimal policy for predicting events using the distribution of the event occurrence estimated by the joint model. The derived policy trades-off the cost of a delayed detection versus incorrect assessments and abstains from making decisions when the estimated event probability does not satisfy the derived confidence criteria. Experiments on a large dataset show that the proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in event prediction.

Effects of environmental change on plant species density: Comparing predictions with experiments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gough, L.; Grace, J.B.

1999-01-01

Ideally, general ecological relationships may be used to predict responses of natural communities to environmental change, but few attempts have been made to determine the reliability of predictions based on descriptive data. Using a previously published structural equation model (SEM) of descriptive data from a coastal marsh landscape, we compared these predictions against observed changes in plant species density resulting from field experiments (manipulations of soil fertility, flooding, salinity, and mammalian herbivory) in two areas within the same marsh. In general, observed experimental responses were fairly consistent with predictions. The largest discrepancy occurred when sods were transplanted from high- to low-salinity sites and herbivores selectively consumed a particularly palatable plant species in the transplanted sods. Individual plot responses to some treatments were predicted more accurately than others. Individual fertilized plot responses were not consistent with predictions (P > 0.05), nor were fenced plots (herbivore exclosures; R2 = 0.15) compared to unfenced plots (R2 = 0.53). For the remaining treatments, predictions reasonably matched responses (R2 = 0.63). We constructed an SEM for the experimental data; it explained 60% of the variance in species density and showed that fencing and fertilization led to decreases in species density that were not predicted from treatment effects on community biomass or observed disturbance levels. These treatments may have affected the ratio of live to dead biomass, and competitive exclusion likely decreased species density in fenced and fertilized plots. We conclude that experimental validation is required to determine the predictive value of comparative relationships derived from descriptive data.

Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Devries, Phoebe M. R.; Evans, Eileen

2016-01-01

A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM <~ 4.0 × 1019 Pa s and ηM >~ 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.

Reionization and the Abundance of Galactic Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bullock, James S.; Kravtsov, Andrey V.; Weinberg, David H.

2000-08-01

One of the main challenges facing standard hierarchical structure formation models is that the predicted abundance of Galactic subhalos with circular velocities vc~10-30 km s-1 is an order of magnitude higher than the number of satellites actually observed within the Local Group. Using a simple model for the formation and evolution of dark halos, based on the extended Press-Schechter formalism and tested against N-body results, we show that the theoretical predictions can be reconciled with observations if gas accretion in low-mass halos is suppressed after the epoch of reionization. In this picture, the observed dwarf satellites correspond to the small fraction of halos that accreted substantial amounts of gas before reionization. The photoionization mechanism naturally explains why the discrepancy between predicted halos and observed satellites sets in at vc~30 km s-1, and for reasonable choices of the reionization redshift (zre~5-12) the model can reproduce both the amplitude and shape of the observed velocity function of galactic satellites. If this explanation is correct, then typical bright galaxy halos contain many low-mass dark matter subhalos. These might be detectable through their gravitational lensing effects, through their influence on stellar disks, or as dwarf satellites with very high mass-to-light ratios. This model also predicts a diffuse stellar component produced by large numbers of tidally disrupted dwarfs, perhaps sufficient to account for most of the Milky Way's stellar halo.

Middle school students' experiences on a science museum field trip as Preparation for Future Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, William A.

Exhibits in informal science institutions, like science centers and museums, are often designed to help people learn, but research showing the immediate impact of experiences with exhibits on understanding is limited. This dissertation tested the hypothesis that the value of first-hand experience with an exhibit is not necessarily in its immediate impact on understanding the topic it addresses, but rather in providing the foundation for understanding in the future. The study was guided by the Preparation for Future Learning (PFL) framework (Bransford & Schwartz, 1999), which was applied to a sixth grade class field trip to a science museum (N = 243). A goal of the field trip was to learn about mechanical advantage by engaging with a Giant Lever exhibit. The PFL framework predicted that students who noticed differences in contrasting cases of mechanical advantage at the exhibit and then attempted to explain the reason for the differences would learn better from an expert explanation heard later in school than their peers who engaged with the exhibit in different ways. A quasi-experimental 2 x 2 x 2 factorial design allowed the effects of three independent variables to be examined: first, kinesthetic vs. observation activity as the mechanism to notice the contrast; second, attempting to explain differences vs. not making the attempt; third, hearing an expert explanation in school vs. not hearing it. The dependent variable was conceptual understanding. Results indicated, unexpectedly, that kinesthetic experience and observation of peers were equally effective in helping students to notice differences in mechanical advantage among several lever configurations. As expected, producing a response to explain the differences predicted understanding only for students who subsequently heard the expert explanation at school the following day. Likewise, hearing the explanation only predicted understanding for students who had attempted to explain the phenomenon beforehand. The results provide support for the PFL framework and for the position that learning from exhibits in science museums is most evident when subsequent reinforcing events (Falk & Dierking, 2000), such as the explanation in school, are taken into account.

Victor Henri: 111 years of his equation.

PubMed

Cornish-Bowden, Athel; Mazat, Jean-Pierre; Nicolas, Serge

2014-12-01

Victor Henri's great contribution to the understanding of enzyme kinetics and mechanism is not always given the credit that it deserves. In addition, his earlier work in experimental psychology is totally unknown to biochemists, and his later work in spectroscopy and photobiology almost equally so. Applying great rigour to his analysis he succeeded in obtaining a model of enzyme action that explained all of the observations available to him, and he showed why the considerable amount of work done in the preceding decade had not led to understanding. His view was that only physical chemistry could explain the behaviour of enzymes, and that models should be judged in accordance with their capacity not only to explain previously known facts but also to predict new observations against which they could be tested. The kinetic equation usually attributed to Michaelis and Menten was in reality due to him. His thesis of 1903 is now available in English. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. and Société française de biochimie et biologie Moléculaire (SFBBM). All rights reserved.

A spectacular coronal mass ejection event and associated phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yuan; Li, Chun-Sheng; Song, Qian

Based on the data taken from S. G. D. and relevant simultaneous observations of solar radio bursts, gamma-ray emission and geophysical effects on June 15, 1991 the relationships among these phenomena are discussed in this paper. Through the analyses it is considered that proton events and GLE events occurred on June 15 in 1991, which were the geophysic responses caused by CME (V>=750 km/s). Simultaneous observation of the bursts at the centimetric and decimetric wavelengths can obtain the U-shape spectrum of speak fluxes, which is still one of the effective tools for predicting proton events and its production mechanism can be explained by using the acceleration of the direct current field parallel to the magnetic field in the electric current sheet formed in the process of the production of spray prominences. However, the process in which electrons are accelerated up to the high energy state remains to be explained. The whole event of June 15 1991, from the coronal matter ejection (or the spray prominences in active regions) to the production of various geophysic effects, has explained and verified.

Coseismic landsliding associated with the 2015 April 25th Gorkha earthquake, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Marin; Zekkos, Dimitrios; West, A. Joshua; Gallen, Sean; Roback, Kevin; Chamlagain, Deepak; Athanasopoulos-Zekkos, Adda; Greenwood, William; Bateman, Julie; Partenio, Michael; Li, Gen; Cook, Kristen; Godt, Jonathan; Howat, Ian; Morin, Paul

2016-04-01

The characteristics of earthquake-triggered landslides have the potential to inform us about the ground motions during large earthquakes and the rock properties of the near surface environment. From the recent Mw7.8 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, we use satellite imagery to identify over 20,000 landslides that are associated with the main shock. While most landslides are located on steep hillslopes, we also present field measurements of alluvial terraces that have either failed or remained stable during the earthquake. We show how both hillslope and terrace failures can be used to better understand the earthquake. These local, site-specific surveys and analyses of alluvial terraces can be used to constrain co-seismic peak ground acceleration (PGA) and large landslide inventories can be used to gain insight into regional patterns of strong ground motion. Our regional landslide mapping reveals two principal patterns: (1) landslides are concentrated in the steep Greater Himalaya in the north, with conspicuously fewer landslides in the moderately-steep Lesser Himalaya in the south, and (2) within the Greater Himalaya, landslide density increases from west to east across the rupture area. We have compared our observed map of landslide occurrence to predictions from forward models using hillslope angles, average rock strength, and PGA estimated from ground motion prediction equations (GMPE). The higher concentration of landslides in the Greater Himalaya compared to the Lesser Himalaya can be predicted by the models and explained by the steeper topography of the Greater Himalaya. However, these forward models do not reproduce the east to west variation in observed landslide density, which is lower than model predictions near the epicenter, and greater than model predictions toward the eastern limit of the rupture. From limit equilibrium stability analysis of both failed and stable fluvial terraces, we constrain local PGA values in the eastern region of dense landsliding. We estimate higher PGA values than those predicted based on GMPE, which could in part explain the concentration of hillslope landsliding. An additional effect that may explain higher landslide density may be the concentration of high-frequency seismic energy, which is observed from high-rate GPS and teleseismic back-projections, since high-frequency spectra promote slope failure. Spatial variability in rock strength could also influence regional landslide distributions; this factor will be investigated with future shallow seismic and field observations. If the observed rupture characteristics of the Gorkha earthquake are typical of large earthquakes in the Himalaya, concentrated landsliding could locally deliver coarse sediment to river channels. Over the long term, spatially focused delivery of coarse sediment may lead to steepened river gradients and higher erosion rates that vary along strike of the Himalaya, provided that coseismic sediment production is mobilized and transported efficiently during the interseismic period. Ongoing work includes evaluating river sediment grain size. If a spatial correlation between coseismic landsliding, increased sediment grain size, and elevated erosion rates can be shown, it would demonstrate a new example of tectonic-erosion coupling based on the seismic cycle and fault behavior.

Spatial Distribution of Large Cloud Drops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshak, A.; Knyazikhin, Y.; Larsen, M.; Wiscombe, W.

2004-01-01

By analyzing aircraft measurements of individual drop sizes in clouds, we have shown in a companion paper (Knyazikhin et al., 2004) that the probability of finding a drop of radius r at a linear scale l decreases as l(sup D(r)) where 0 less than or equal to D(r) less than or equal to 1. This paper shows striking examples of the spatial distribution of large cloud drops using models that simulate the observed power laws. In contrast to currently used models that assume homogeneity and therefore a Poisson distribution of cloud drops, these models show strong drop clustering, the more so the larger the drops. The degree of clustering is determined by the observed exponents D(r). The strong clustering of large drops arises naturally from the observed power-law statistics. This clustering has vital consequences for rain physics explaining how rain can form so fast. It also helps explain why remotely sensed cloud drop size is generally biased and why clouds absorb more sunlight than conventional radiative transfer models predict.

Synthesis of line profiles from models of structured winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Puls, J.; Feldmeier, A.; Springmann, U. W. E.; Owocki, S. P.; Fullerton, A. W.

1994-01-01

On the basis of a careful analysis of resonance line formation (both for singlets and doublets) in structured winds, present time dependent models of the line driven winds of hot stars are shown to be able to explain a number of observational features with respect to variability and structure: they are (in principle) able to reproduce the black and broad troughs (without any artificial 'turbulence velocity') and the 'blue edge variability' observed in saturate resonance lines: they might explain the 'long lived narrow absorption components' often observed in unsaturated lines at high velocities; they predict a relation between the 'edge velocity' of UV-lines and the radiation temperature of the observed X-ray emission. As a first example of the extent to which theoretical models can be constrained by comparisons between observations and profiles calculated by spectrum synthesis from structured winds, we show here that models with deep-seated onset of structure formation (approximately greater than 1.1 R(sub *)) produce resonance lines which agree qualitatively with observational findings; in contrast, the here presented models with structure formation only well out in the wind (approximately greater than 1.6 R(sub *) fail in this respect.

Methodologic Guide for Evaluating Clinical Performance and Effect of Artificial Intelligence Technology for Medical Diagnosis and Prediction.

PubMed

Park, Seong Ho; Han, Kyunghwa

2018-03-01

The use of artificial intelligence in medicine is currently an issue of great interest, especially with regard to the diagnostic or predictive analysis of medical images. Adoption of an artificial intelligence tool in clinical practice requires careful confirmation of its clinical utility. Herein, the authors explain key methodology points involved in a clinical evaluation of artificial intelligence technology for use in medicine, especially high-dimensional or overparameterized diagnostic or predictive models in which artificial deep neural networks are used, mainly from the standpoints of clinical epidemiology and biostatistics. First, statistical methods for assessing the discrimination and calibration performances of a diagnostic or predictive model are summarized. Next, the effects of disease manifestation spectrum and disease prevalence on the performance results are explained, followed by a discussion of the difference between evaluating the performance with use of internal and external datasets, the importance of using an adequate external dataset obtained from a well-defined clinical cohort to avoid overestimating the clinical performance as a result of overfitting in high-dimensional or overparameterized classification model and spectrum bias, and the essentials for achieving a more robust clinical evaluation. Finally, the authors review the role of clinical trials and observational outcome studies for ultimate clinical verification of diagnostic or predictive artificial intelligence tools through patient outcomes, beyond performance metrics, and how to design such studies. © RSNA, 2018.

Vibrational spectroscopic study of terbutaline hemisulphate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, H. R. H.; Edwards, H. G. M.; Kendrick, J.; Scowen, I. J.

2009-05-01

The Raman spectrum of terbutaline hemisulphate is reported for the first time, and molecular assignments are proposed on the basis of ab initio BLYP DFT calculations with a 6-31G* basis set and vibrational frequencies predicted within the quasi-harmonic approximation; these predictions compare favourably with the observed vibrational spectra. Comparison with previously published infrared data explains several spectral features. The results from this study provide data that can be used for the preparative process monitoring of terbutaline hemisulphate, an important β 2 agonist drug in various dosage forms and its interaction with excipients and other components.

Nonreciprocal reflection-beam isolators for far-infrared use

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanda, M.; May, W. G.

1973-01-01

Magnetoplasma reflection-beam isolators for submillimeter-wave use are discussed in theory and experiment. The basic device uses the Kerr transverse magnetooptic effect (plane of polarization of the EM wave in the plane of incidence, which is perpendicular to a dc magnetic field) in InSb near room temperature. When the semiconductor slab is covered with a thin dielectric layer acting as a matching transformer, improved performance is predicted and observed at 337 microns, and very efficient isolator performance is predicted for 118 microns. Physical arguments are presented to explain the nonreciprocal phenomenon and lead to better device design.

Nuclear Reactions in Micro/Nano-Scale Metal Particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y. E.

2013-03-01

Low-energy nuclear reactions in micro/nano-scale metal particles are described based on the theory of Bose-Einstein condensation nuclear fusion (BECNF). The BECNF theory is based on a single basic assumption capable of explaining the observed LENR phenomena; deuterons in metals undergo Bose-Einstein condensation. The BECNF theory is also a quantitative predictive physical theory. Experimental tests of the basic assumption and theoretical predictions are proposed. Potential application to energy generation by ignition at low temperatures is described. Generalized theory of BECNF is used to carry out theoretical analyses of recently reported experimental results for hydrogen-nickel system.

Three waves for quantum gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calmet, Xavier; Latosh, Boris

2018-03-01

Using effective field theoretical methods, we show that besides the already observed gravitational waves, quantum gravity predicts two further massive classical fields leading to two new massive waves. We set a limit on the masses of these new modes using data from the Eöt-Wash experiment. We point out that the existence of these new states is a model independent prediction of quantum gravity. We then explain how these new classical fields could impact astrophysical processes and in particular the binary inspirals of neutron stars or black holes. We calculate the emission rate of these new states in binary inspirals astrophysical processes.

Compaction of North-sea chalk by pore-failure and pressure solution in a producing reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keszthelyi, Daniel; Dysthe, Dag; Jamtveit, Bjorn

2016-02-01

The Ekofisk field, Norwegian North sea,is an example of compacting chalk reservoir with considerable subsequent seafloor subsidence due to petroleum production. Previously, a number of models were created to predict the compaction using different phenomenological approaches. Here we present a different approach, we use a new creep model based on microscopic mechanisms with no fitting parameters to predict strain rate at core scale and at reservoir scale. The model is able to reproduce creep experiments and the magnitude of the observed subsidence making it the first microstructural model which can explain the Ekofisk compaction.

Gender discrimination and prediction on the basis of facial metric information.

PubMed

Fellous, J M

1997-07-01

Horizontal and vertical facial measurements are statistically independent. Discriminant analysis shows that five of such normalized distances explain over 95% of the gender differences of "training" samples and predict the gender of 90% novel test faces exhibiting various facial expressions. The robustness of the method and its results are assessed. It is argued that these distances (termed fiducial) are compatible with those found experimentally by psychophysical and neurophysiological studies. In consequence, partial explanations for the effects observed in these experiments can be found in the intrinsic statistical nature of the facial stimuli used.

Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, E. M.; Knutti, R.

2016-12-01

Environmental phenomena are often first observed, and then explained or simulated quantitatively. The complexity and diversity of processes, the range of scales involved, and the lack of first principles to describe many processes make it challenging to predict conditions beyond the ones observed. Here we use the intensification of heavy precipitation as a counterexample, where seemingly complex and potentially computationally intractable processes to first order manifest themselves in simple ways: the intensification of heavy precipitation is now emerging in the observed record across many regions of the world, confirming both theory and a variety of model predictions made decades ago, before robust evidence arose from observations. We here compare heavy precipitation changes over Europe and the contiguous United States across station series and gridded observations, theoretical considerations and multi-model ensembles of GCMs and RCMs. We demonstrate that the observed heavy precipitation intensification aggregated over large areas agrees remarkably well with Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. The observed changes in heavy precipitation are consistent yet somewhat larger than predicted by very coarse resolution GCMs in the 1980s and simulated by the newest generation of GCMs and RCMs. For instance the number of days with very heavy precipitation over Europe has increased by about 45% in observations (years 1981-2013 compared to 1951-1980) and by about 25% in the model average in both GCMs and RCMs, although with substantial spread across models and locations. As the anthropogenic climate signal strengthens, there will be more opportunities to test climate predictions for other variables against observations and across a hierarchy of different models and theoretical concepts. *Fischer, E.M., and R. Knutti, 2016, Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models, Nature Climate Change, in press.

Observing golden-mean universality class in the scaling of thermal transport.

PubMed

Xiong, Daxing

2018-02-01

We address the issue of whether the golden-mean [ψ=(sqrt[5]+1)/2≃1.618] universality class, as predicted by several theoretical models, can be observed in the dynamical scaling of thermal transport. Remarkably, we show strong evidence that ψ appears to be the scaling exponent of heat mode correlation in a purely quartic anharmonic chain. This observation seems to somewhat deviate from the previous expectation and we explain it by the unusual slow decay of the cross correlation between heat and sound modes. Whenever the cubic anharmonicity is included, this cross correlation gradually dies out and another universality class with scaling exponent γ=5/3, as commonly predicted by theories, seems recovered. However, this recovery is accompanied by two interesting phase transition processes characterized by a change of symmetry of the potential and a clear variation of the dynamic structure factor, respectively. Due to these transitions, an additional exponent close to γ≃1.580 emerges. All this evidence suggests that, to gain a full prediction of the scaling of thermal transport, more ingredients should be taken into account.

Forecasting and remote sensing outer belt relativistic electrons from low Earth orbit

DOE PAGES

Chen, Yue; Reeves, Geoffrey D.; Cunningham, Gregory S.; ...

2016-02-15

Our study demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of using observations from low Earth orbit (LEO) to forecast and nowcast relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt. Furthermore, we first report a high cross-energy, cross-pitch-angle coherence discovered between the trapped MeV electrons and precipitating approximately hundreds (~100s) of keV electrons—observed by satellites with very different altitudes—with correlation coefficients as high as ≳ 0.85. We then tested the feasibility of applying linear prediction filters to LEO data to predict the arrival of new MeV electrons during geomagnetic storms, as well as their evolving distributions afterward, based on the coherence. Reliability of thesemore » predictive filters is quantified by the performance efficiency with values as high as 0.74 when driven merely by LEO observations (or up to 0.94 with the inclusion of in situ MeV electron measurements). Finally, a hypothesis based upon the wave-particle resonance theory is proposed to explain the coherence, and a first-principle electron tracing model yields supporting evidence.« less

Paleoclassical transport explains electron transport barriers in RTP and TEXTOR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogeweij, G. M. D.; Callen, J. D.; RTP Team; TEXTOR Team

2008-06-01

The recently developed paleoclassical transport model sets the minimum level of electron thermal transport in a tokamak. This transport level has proven to be in good agreement with experimental observations in many cases when fluctuation-induced anomalous transport is small, i.e. in (near-)ohmic plasmas in small to medium size tokamaks, inside internal transport barriers (ITBs) or edge transport barriers (H-mode pedestal). In this paper predictions of the paleoclassical transport model are compared in detail with data from such kinds of discharges: ohmic discharges from the RTP tokamak, EC heated RTP discharges featuring both dynamic and shot-to-shot scans of the ECH power deposition radius and off-axis EC heated discharges from the TEXTOR tokamak. For ohmically heated RTP discharges the Te profiles predicted by the paleoclassical model are in reasonable agreement with the experimental observations, and various parametric dependences are captured satisfactorily. The electron thermal ITBs observed in steady state EC heated RTP discharges and transiently after switch-off of off-axis ECH in TEXTOR are predicted very well by the paleoclassical model.

Observing golden-mean universality class in the scaling of thermal transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Daxing

2018-02-01

We address the issue of whether the golden-mean [ψ =(√{5 }+1 ) /2 ≃1.618 ] universality class, as predicted by several theoretical models, can be observed in the dynamical scaling of thermal transport. Remarkably, we show strong evidence that ψ appears to be the scaling exponent of heat mode correlation in a purely quartic anharmonic chain. This observation seems to somewhat deviate from the previous expectation and we explain it by the unusual slow decay of the cross correlation between heat and sound modes. Whenever the cubic anharmonicity is included, this cross correlation gradually dies out and another universality class with scaling exponent γ =5 /3 , as commonly predicted by theories, seems recovered. However, this recovery is accompanied by two interesting phase transition processes characterized by a change of symmetry of the potential and a clear variation of the dynamic structure factor, respectively. Due to these transitions, an additional exponent close to γ ≃1.580 emerges. All this evidence suggests that, to gain a full prediction of the scaling of thermal transport, more ingredients should be taken into account.

Using a LIDAR Vegetation Model to Predict UHF SAR Attenuation in Coniferous Forests

PubMed Central

Swanson, Alan; Huang, Shengli; Crabtree, Robert

2009-01-01

Attenuation of radar signals by vegetation can be a problem for target detection and GPS reception, and is an important parameter in models describing vegetation backscatter. Here we first present a model describing the 3D distribution of stem and foliage structure based on small footprint scanning LIDAR data. Secondly we present a model that uses ray-tracing methodology to record detailed interactions between simulated radar beams and vegetation components. These interactions are combined over the SAR aperture and used to predict two-way attenuation of the SAR signal. Accuracy of the model is demonstrated using UHF SAR observations of large trihedral corner reflectors in coniferous forest stands. Our study showed that the model explains between 66% and 81% of the variability in observed attenuation. PMID:22573972

Teaching Enzymes to Pre-Service Science Teachers through POE (Predict, Observe, Explain) Method: The Case of Catalase

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Güngör, Sema Nur; Özkan, Muhlis

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to teach enzymes, which are one of the biology subjects in understanding which students have a big difficulty, to pre-service teachers through POE method in the case of catalase, which is an oxidoreductase. Descriptive analysis method was employed in this study in which 38 second grade pre-service teachers attending Uludag…

The Effects of 3D Computer Modelling on Conceptual Change about Seasons and Phases of the Moon

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kucukozer, Huseyin

2008-01-01

In this study, prospective science teachers' misconceptions about the seasons and the phases of the Moon were determined, and then the effects of 3D computer modelling on their conceptual changes were investigated. The topics were covered in two classes with a total of 76 students using a predict-observe-explain strategy supported by 3D computer…

Are some CEMP-s stars the daughters of spinstars?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choplin, Arthur; Hirschi, Raphael; Meynet, Georges; Ekström, Sylvia

2017-11-01

Carbon-enhanced metal-poor (CEMP)-s stars are long-lived low-mass stars with a very low iron content as well as overabundances of carbon and s-elements. Their peculiar chemical pattern is often explained by pollution from an asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star companion. Recent observations have shown that most CEMP-s stars are in binary systems, providing support to the AGB companion scenario. A few CEMP-s stars, however, appear to be single. We inspect four apparently single CEMP-s stars and discuss the possibility that they formed from the ejecta of a previous-generation massive star, referred to as the "source" star. In order to investigate this scenario, we computed low-metallicity massive-star models with and without rotation and including complete s-process nucleosynthesis. We find that non-rotating source stars cannot explain the observed abundance of any of the four CEMP-s stars. Three out of the four CEMP-s stars can be explained by a 25M⊙ source star with vini 500 km s-1 (spinstar). The fourth CEMP-s star has a high Pb abundance that cannot be explained by any of the models we computed. Since spinstars and AGB predict different ranges of [O/Fe] and [ls/hs], these ratios could be an interesting way to further test these two scenarios.

Exploring students' perceptions and performance on predict-observe-explain tasks in high school chemistry laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vadapally, Praveen

This study sought to understand the impact of gender and reasoning level on students' perceptions and performances of Predict-Observe-Explain (POE) laboratory tasks in a high school chemistry laboratory. Several literature reviews have reported that students at all levels have not developed the specific knowledge and skills that were expected from their laboratory work. Studies conducted over the last several decades have found that boys tend to be more successful than girls in science and mathematics courses. However, some recent studies have suggested that girls may be reducing this gender gap. This gender difference is the focal point of this research study, which was conducted at a mid-western, rural high school. The participants were 24 boys and 25 girls enrolled in two physical science classes taught by the same teacher. In this mixed methods study, qualitative and quantitative methods were implemented simultaneously over the entire period of the study. MANOVA statistics revealed significant effects due to gender and level of reasoning on the outcome variables, which were POE performances and perceptions of the chemistry laboratory environment. There were no significant interactions between these effects. For the qualitative method, IRB-approved information was collected, coded, grouped, and analyzed. This method was used to derive themes from students' responses on questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. Students with different levels of reasoning and gender were interviewed, and many of them expressed positive themes, which was a clear indication that they had enjoyed participating in the POE learning tasks and they had developed positive perceptions towards POE inquiry laboratory learning environment. When students are capable of formal reasoning, they can use an abstract scientific concept effectively and then relate it to the ideas they generate in their minds. Thus, instructors should factor the nature of students' thinking abilities into their instructional strategies and strive to create a learning environment where students are engaged in thinking, learning, and acting in meaningful and beneficial ways. POE learning tasks enhance students' laboratory experiences and can help deepen their understanding of the empirical nature of science. Key words: predict observe explain, gender, science laboratory inquiry, reasoning ability, social constructivism, mixed methods.

Long-term evolution of Oort Cloud comets: capture of comets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurmi, P.; Valtonen, M. J.; Zheng, J. Q.; Rickman, H.

2002-07-01

We test different possibilities for the origin of short-period comets captured from the Oort Cloud. We use an efficient Monte Carlo simulation method that takes into account non-gravitational forces, Galactic perturbations, observational selection effects, physical evolution and tidal splittings of comets. We confirm previous results and conclude that the Jupiter family comets cannot originate in the spherically distributed Oort Cloud, since there is no physically possible model of how these comets can be captured from the Oort Cloud flux and produce the observed inclination and Tisserand constant distributions. The extended model of the Oort Cloud predicted by the planetesimal theory consisting of a non-randomly distributed inner core and a classical Oort Cloud also cannot explain the observed distributions of Jupiter family comets. The number of comets captured from the outer region of the Solar system are too high compared with the observations if the inclination distribution of Jupiter family comets is matched with the observed distribution. It is very likely that the Halley-type comets are captured mainly from the classical Oort Cloud, since the distributions in inclination and Tisserand value can be fitted to the observed distributions with very high confidence. Also the expected number of comets is in agreement with the observations when physical evolution of the comets is included. However, the solution is not unique, and other more complicated models can also explain the observed properties of Halley-type comets. The existence of Jupiter family comets can be explained only if they are captured from the extended disc of comets with semimajor axes of the comets a<5000au. The original flattened distribution of comets is conserved as the cometary orbits evolve from the outer Solar system era to the observed region.

People learn other people's preferences through inverse decision-making.

PubMed

Jern, Alan; Lucas, Christopher G; Kemp, Charles

2017-11-01

People are capable of learning other people's preferences by observing the choices they make. We propose that this learning relies on inverse decision-making-inverting a decision-making model to infer the preferences that led to an observed choice. In Experiment 1, participants observed 47 choices made by others and ranked them by how strongly each choice suggested that the decision maker had a preference for a specific item. An inverse decision-making model generated predictions that were in accordance with participants' inferences. Experiment 2 replicated and extended a previous study by Newtson (1974) in which participants observed pairs of choices and made judgments about which choice provided stronger evidence for a preference. Inverse decision-making again predicted the results, including a result that previous accounts could not explain. Experiment 3 used the same method as Experiment 2 and found that participants did not expect decision makers to be perfect utility-maximizers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How bumps on whale flippers delay stall: an aerodynamic model.

PubMed

van Nierop, Ernst A; Alben, Silas; Brenner, Michael P

2008-02-08

Wind tunnel experiments have shown that bumps on the leading edge of model humpback whale flippers cause them to "stall" (i.e., lose lift dramatically) more gradually and at a higher angle of attack. Here we develop an aerodynamic model which explains the observed increase in stall angle. The model predicts that as the amplitude of the bumps is increased, the lift curve flattens out, leading to potentially desirable control properties. We find that stall delay is insensitive to the wavelength of the bumps, in accordance with experimental observations.

Minimal Unified Resolution to R_{K^{(*)}} and R(D^{(*)}) Anomalies with Lepton Mixing.

PubMed

Choudhury, Debajyoti; Kundu, Anirban; Mandal, Rusa; Sinha, Rahul

2017-10-13

It is a challenging task to explain, in terms of a simple and compelling new physics scenario, the intriguing discrepancies between the standard model expectations and the data for the neutral-current observables R_{K} and R_{K^{*}}, as well as the charged-current observables R(D) and R(D^{*}). We show that this can be achieved in an effective theory with only two unknown parameters. In addition, this class of models predicts some interesting signatures in the context of both B decays as well as high-energy collisions.

TRANSIT OF EXOMOON PLASMA TORI: NEW DIAGNOSIS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ben-Jaffel, Lotfi; Ballester, Gilda E., E-mail: bjaffel@iap.fr, E-mail: gilda@pirl.lpl.arizona.edu

2014-04-20

In the solar system, moons largely exceed planets in number. The Kepler database has been shown to be sensitive to exomoon detection down to the mass of Mars, but the first search has been unsuccessful. Here, we use a particles-in-cell code to predict the transit of the plasma torus produced by a satellite. Despite the small size of a moon, the spatial extent of its plasma torus can be large enough to produce substantial transit absorptions. The model is used for the interpretation of Hubble Space Telescope early ingress absorptions apparently observed during the WASP-12 b and HD 189733 bmore » UV transits for which no consistent explanation exists. For HD 189733 b an exomoon transiting ∼16 R{sub p} ahead of the planet and loading ∼10{sup 29} C II ions s{sup –1} into space is required to explain the tentative early ingress absorption observed for C II. For WASP-12b, a moon transiting ∼6 R{sub p} ahead from the planet and ejecting ∼10{sup 28} Mg II ions per second is required to explain the NUV early ingress absorption feature. Interestingly, both HD 189733 b and WASP-12b predicted satellites are outside the Hill sphere of their planets, an indication that the moons, if present, were not formed in situ but probably captured later. Finally, our simulations show a strong electromagnetic coupling between the polar regions of planets and the orbital position of the moons, an expected outcome of the unipolar induction DC circuit model. Future observations should test our predictions with a potential opportunity to unambiguously detect the first exomoon plasma torus.« less

Interpreting tracer breakthrough tailing from different forced-gradient tracer experiment configurations in fractured bedrock

USGS Publications Warehouse

Becker, M.W.; Shapiro, A.M.

2003-01-01

Conceptual and mathematical models are presented that explain tracer breakthrough tailing in the absence of significant matrix diffusion. Model predictions are compared to field results from radially convergent, weak-dipole, and push-pull tracer experiments conducted in a saturated crystalline bedrock. The models are based upon the assumption that flow is highly channelized, that the mass of tracer in a channel is proportional to the cube of the mean channel aperture, and the mean transport time in the channel is related to the square of the mean channel aperture. These models predict the consistent -2 straight line power law slope observed in breakthrough from radially convergent and weak-dipole tracer experiments and the variable straight line power law slope observed in push-pull tracer experiments with varying injection volumes. The power law breakthrough slope is predicted in the absence of matrix diffusion. A comparison of tracer experiments in which the flow field was reversed to those in which it was not indicates that the apparent dispersion in the breakthrough curve is partially reversible. We hypothesize that the observed breakthrough tailing is due to a combination of local hydrodynamic dispersion, which always increases in the direction of fluid velocity, and heterogeneous advection, which is partially reversed when the flow field is reversed. In spite of our attempt to account for heterogeneous advection using a multipath approach, a much smaller estimate of hydrodynamic dispersivity was obtained from push-pull experiments than from radially convergent or weak dipole experiments. These results suggest that although we can explain breakthrough tailing as an advective phenomenon, we cannot ignore the relationship between hydrodynamic dispersion and flow field geometry at this site. The design of the tracer experiment can severely impact the estimation of hydrodynamic dispersion and matrix diffusion in highly heterogeneous geologic media.

Anomalously low amplitude of S waves produced by the 3D structures in the lower mantle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

To, Akiko; Capdeville, Yann; Romanowicz, Barbara

2016-07-01

Direct S and Sdiff phases with anomalously low amplitudes are recorded for the earthquakes in Papua New Guinea by seismographs in northern America. According to the prediction by a standard 1D model, the amplitudes are the lowest at stations in southern California, at a distance and azimuth of around 95° and 55°, respectively, from the earthquake. The amplitude anomaly is more prominent at frequencies higher than 0.03 Hz. We checked and ruled out the possibility of the anomalies appearing because of the errors in the focal mechanism used in the reference synthetic waveform calculations. The observed anomaly distribution changes drastically with a relatively small shift in the location of the earthquake. The observations indicate that the amplitude reduction is likely due to the 3D shear velocity (Vs) structure, which deflects the wave energy away from the original ray paths. Moreover, some previous studies suggested that some of the S and Sdiff phases in our dataset are followed by a prominent postcursor and show a large travel time delay, which was explained by placing a large ultra-low velocity zone (ULVZ) located on the core-mantle boundary southwest of Hawaii. In this study, we evaluated the extent of amplitude anomalies that can be explained by the lower mantle structures in the existing models, including the previously proposed ULVZ. In addition, we modified and tested some models and searched for the possible causes of low amplitudes. Full 3D synthetic waveforms were calculated and compared with the observations. Our results show that while the existing models explain the trends of the observed amplitude anomalies, the size of such anomalies remain under-predicted especially at large distances. Adding a low velocity zone, which is spatially larger and has less Vs reduction than ULVZ, on the southwest side of ULVZ, contributes to explain the low amplitudes observed at distances larger than 100° from the earthquake. The newly proposed low velocity zone mostly overlaps with the northern part of the Pacific large low shear velocity province (LLSVP) revealed in tomographic models. Although the very low amplitudes observed at a distance of about 95° remain unexplained, our results indicate that the boundary of the Pacific LLSVP is sharp, and the amplitude of S waves at these large distances is lowered by strong vertical and/or lateral deflection at the boundary toward the interior of the low velocity province.

Eye-hand coordination during a double-step task: evidence for a common stochastic accumulator

PubMed Central

Gopal, Atul

2015-01-01

Many studies of reaching and pointing have shown significant spatial and temporal correlations between eye and hand movements. Nevertheless, it remains unclear whether these correlations are incidental, arising from common inputs (independent model); whether these correlations represent an interaction between otherwise independent eye and hand systems (interactive model); or whether these correlations arise from a single dedicated eye-hand system (common command model). Subjects were instructed to redirect gaze and pointing movements in a double-step task in an attempt to decouple eye-hand movements and causally distinguish between the three architectures. We used a drift-diffusion framework in the context of a race model, which has been previously used to explain redirect behavior for eye and hand movements separately, to predict the pattern of eye-hand decoupling. We found that the common command architecture could best explain the observed frequency of different eye and hand response patterns to the target step. A common stochastic accumulator for eye-hand coordination also predicts comparable variances, despite significant difference in the means of the eye and hand reaction time (RT) distributions, which we tested. Consistent with this prediction, we observed that the variances of the eye and hand RTs were similar, despite much larger hand RTs (∼90 ms). Moreover, changes in mean eye RTs, which also increased eye RT variance, produced a similar increase in mean and variance of the associated hand RT. Taken together, these data suggest that a dedicated circuit underlies coordinated eye-hand planning. PMID:26084906

A new theory for X-ray diffraction.

PubMed

Fewster, Paul F

2014-05-01

This article proposes a new theory of X-ray scattering that has particular relevance to powder diffraction. The underlying concept of this theory is that the scattering from a crystal or crystallite is distributed throughout space: this leads to the effect that enhanced scatter can be observed at the `Bragg position' even if the `Bragg condition' is not satisfied. The scatter from a single crystal or crystallite, in any fixed orientation, has the fascinating property of contributing simultaneously to many `Bragg positions'. It also explains why diffraction peaks are obtained from samples with very few crystallites, which cannot be explained with the conventional theory. The intensity ratios for an Si powder sample are predicted with greater accuracy and the temperature factors are more realistic. Another consequence is that this new theory predicts a reliability in the intensity measurements which agrees much more closely with experimental observations compared to conventional theory that is based on `Bragg-type' scatter. The role of dynamical effects (extinction etc.) is discussed and how they are suppressed with diffuse scattering. An alternative explanation for the Lorentz factor is presented that is more general and based on the capture volume in diffraction space. This theory, when applied to the scattering from powders, will evaluate the full scattering profile, including peak widths and the `background'. The theory should provide an increased understanding of the reliability of powder diffraction measurements, and may also have wider implications for the analysis of powder diffraction data, by increasing the accuracy of intensities predicted from structural models.

COAGULATION CALCULATIONS OF ICY PLANET FORMATION AT 15-150 AU: A CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM RADIUS AND THE SLOPE OF THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION FOR TRANS-NEPTUNIAN OBJECTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kenyon, Scott J.; Bromley, Benjamin C., E-mail: skenyon@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: bromley@physics.utah.edu

2012-03-15

We investigate whether coagulation models of planet formation can explain the observed size distributions of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs). Analyzing published and new calculations, we demonstrate robust relations between the size of the largest object and the slope of the size distribution for sizes 0.1 km and larger. These relations yield clear, testable predictions for TNOs and other icy objects throughout the solar system. Applying our results to existing observations, we show that a broad range of initial disk masses, planetesimal sizes, and fragmentation parameters can explain the data. Adding dynamical constraints on the initial semimajor axis of 'hot' Kuiper Beltmore » objects along with probable TNO formation times of 10-700 Myr restricts the viable models to those with a massive disk composed of relatively small (1-10 km) planetesimals.« less

A basal magma ocean dynamo to explain the early lunar magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheinberg, Aaron L.; Soderlund, Krista M.; Elkins-Tanton, Linda T.

2018-06-01

The source of the ancient lunar magnetic field is an unsolved problem in the Moon's evolution. Theoretical work invoking a core dynamo has been unable to explain the magnitude of the observed field, falling instead one to two orders of magnitude below it. Since surface magnetic field strength is highly sensitive to the depth and size of the dynamo region, we instead hypothesize that the early lunar dynamo was driven by convection in a basal magma ocean formed from the final stages of an early lunar magma ocean; this material is expected to be dense, radioactive, and metalliferous. Here we use numerical convection models to predict the longevity and heat flow of such a basal magma ocean and use scaling laws to estimate the resulting magnetic field strength. We show that, if sufficiently electrically conducting, a magma ocean could have produced an early dynamo with surface fields consistent with the paleomagnetic observations.

Simulation and Modeling in High Entropy Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toda-Caraballo, I.; Wróbel, J. S.; Nguyen-Manh, D.; Pérez, P.; Rivera-Díaz-del-Castillo, P. E. J.

2017-11-01

High entropy alloys (HEAs) is a fascinating field of research, with an increasing number of new alloys discovered. This would hardly be conceivable without the aid of materials modeling and computational alloy design to investigate the immense compositional space. The simplicity of the microstructure achieved contrasts with the enormous complexity of its composition, which, in turn, increases the variety of property behavior observed. Simulation and modeling techniques are of paramount importance in the understanding of such material performance. There are numerous examples of how different models have explained the observed experimental results; yet, there are theories and approaches developed for conventional alloys, where the presence of one element is predominant, that need to be adapted or re-developed. In this paper, we review of the current state of the art of the modeling techniques applied to explain HEAs properties, identifying the potential new areas of research to improve the predictability of these techniques.

Soft gamma-ray repeaters and anomalous X-ray pulsars as highly magnetized white dwarfs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mukhopadhyay, Banibrata; Rao, A.R., E-mail: bm@physics.iisc.ernet.in, E-mail: arrao@tifr.res.in

We explore the possibility that soft gamma-ray repeaters (SGRs) and anomalous X-ray pulsars (AXPs) are powered by highly magnetized white dwarfs (B-WDs). We take a sample of SGRs and AXPs and provide the possible parameter space in mass, radius, and surface magnetic field based on their observed properties (period and its derivative) and the assumption that these sources obey the mass-radius relation derived for the B-WDs. The radius and magnetic field of B-WDs are adequate to explain energies in SGRs/AXPs as the rotationally powered energy. In addition, B-WDs also adequately explain the perplexing radio transient GCRT J1745-3009 as a whitemore » dwarf pulsar. Note that the radius and magnetic fields of B-WDs are neither extreme (unlike of highly magnetized neutron stars) nor ordinary (unlike of magnetized white dwarfs, yet following the Chandrasekhar's mass-radius relation (C-WDs)). In order to explain SGRs/AXPs, while the highly magnetized neutron stars require an extra, observationally not well established yet, source of energy, the C-WDs predict large ultra-violet luminosity which is observationally constrained from a strict upper limit. Finally, we provide a set of basic differences between the magnetar and B-WD hypotheses for SGRs/AXPs.« less

Event-rate and delta inflation when evaluating mortality as a primary outcome from randomized controlled trials of nutritional interventions during critical illness: a systematic review.

PubMed

Summers, Matthew J; Chapple, Lee-anne S; McClave, Stephen A; Deane, Adam M

2016-04-01

There is a lack of high-quality evidence that proves that nutritional interventions during critical illness reduce mortality. We evaluated whether power calculations for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of nutritional interventions that used mortality as the primary outcome were realistic, and whether overestimation was systematic in the studies identified to determine whether this was due to overestimates of event rate or delta. A systematic review of the literature between 2005 and 2015 was performed to identify RCTs of nutritional interventions administered to critically ill adults that had mortality as the primary outcome. Predicted event rate (predicted mortality during the control), predicted mortality during intervention, predicted delta (predicted difference between mortality during the control and intervention), actual event rate (observed mortality during control), observed mortality during intervention, and actual delta (difference between observed mortality during the control and intervention) were recorded. The event-rate gap (predicted event rate minus observed event rate), the delta gap (predicted delta minus observed delta), and the predicted number needed to treat were calculated. Data are shown as median (range). Fourteen articles were extracted, with power calculations provided for 10 studies. The predicted event rate was 29.9% (20.0–52.4%), and the predicted delta was 7.9% (3.0–20.0%). If the study hypothesis was proven correct then, on the basis of the power calculations, the number needed to treat would have been 12.7 (5.0–33.3) patients. The actual event rate was 25.3% (6.1–50.0%), the observed mortality during the intervention was 24.4% (6.3–39.7%), and the actual delta was 0.5% (−10.2–10.3%), such that the event-rate gap was 2.6% (−3.9–23.7%) and delta gap was 7.5% (3.2–25.2%). Overestimates of delta occur frequently in RCTs of nutritional interventions in the critically ill that are powered to determine a mortality benefit. Delta inflation may explain the number of "negative" studies in this field of research.

Food-Sharing Networks in Lamalera, Indonesia: Status, Sharing, and Signaling

PubMed Central

Nolin, David A.

2012-01-01

Costly signaling has been proposed as a possible mechanism to explain food sharing in foraging populations. This sharing-as-signaling hypothesis predicts an association between sharing and status. Using exponential random graph modeling (ERGM), this prediction is tested on a social network of between-household food-sharing relationships in the fishing and sea-hunting village of Lamalera, Indonesia. Previous analyses (Nolin 2010) have shown that most sharing in Lamalera is consistent with reciprocal altruism. The question addressed here is whether any additional variation may be explained as sharing-as-signaling by high-status households. The results show that high-status households both give and receive more than other households, a pattern more consistent with reciprocal altruism than costly signaling. However, once the propensity to reciprocate and household productivity are controlled, households of men holding leadership positions show greater odds of unreciprocated giving when compared to households of non-leaders. This pattern of excessive giving by leaders is consistent with the sharing-as-signaling hypothesis. Wealthy households show the opposite pattern, giving less and receiving more than other households. These households may reciprocate in a currency other than food or their wealth may attract favor-seeking behavior from others. Overall, status covariates explain little variation in the sharing network as a whole, and much of the sharing observed by high-status households is best explained by the same factors that explain sharing by other households. This pattern suggests that multiple mechanisms may operate simultaneously to promote sharing in Lamalera and that signaling may motivate some sharing by some individuals even within sharing regimes primarily maintained by other mechanisms. PMID:22822299

Insect density-plant density relationships: a modified view of insect responses to resource concentrations.

PubMed

Andersson, Petter; Löfstedt, Christer; Hambäck, Peter A

2013-12-01

Habitat area is an important predictor of spatial variation in animal densities. However, the area often correlates with the quantity of resources within habitats, complicating our understanding of the factors shaping animal distributions. We addressed this problem by investigating densities of insect herbivores in habitat patches with a constant area but varying numbers of plants. Using a mathematical model, predictions of scale-dependent immigration and emigration rates for insects into patches with different densities of host plants were derived. Moreover, a field experiment was conducted where the scaling properties of odour-mediated attraction in relation to the number of odour sources were estimated, in order to derive a prediction of immigration rates of olfactory searchers. The theoretical model predicted that we should expect immigration rates of contact and visual searchers to be determined by patch area, with a steep scaling coefficient, μ = -1. The field experiment suggested that olfactory searchers should show a less steep scaling coefficient, with μ ≈ -0.5. A parameter estimation and analysis of published data revealed a correspondence between observations and predictions, and density-variation among groups could largely be explained by search behaviour. Aphids showed scaling coefficients corresponding to the prediction for contact/visual searchers, whereas moths, flies and beetles corresponded to the prediction for olfactory searchers. As density responses varied considerably among groups, and variation could be explained by a certain trait, we conclude that a general theory of insect responses to habitat heterogeneity should be based on shared traits, rather than a general prediction for all species.

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability

PubMed Central

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-01-01

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation. PMID:25897996

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability.

PubMed

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-04-21

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.

Peer-to-Peer Instruction with Interactive Demonstrations in Upper Level Astronomy Courses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelderman, Richard

2013-06-01

Spectral and polarization properties of light are topics that most intro physics courses barely touch. Students therefore rarely have any useful experience to draw on when those topics come up in an upper level astronomy class. This means that they approach problems dealing with spectra or polarization as plug-and-chug mathematics applications, devoid of physical context. We have been addressing such dilemmas by using interactive demonstrations in the lecture meeting to give students direct experience with polarization filters, diffraction gratings, spectral sources, and situations requiring them to analyze sources based on the observed polarization of spectral properties. Each student individually predicts the outcomes for a demonstration. Students then collaborate within in a group of three to discuss their prediction, reporting the group’s consensus prediction. After observing the demonstration, students in the group compare their predictions to the results, and attempt to explain the phenomena. Based on curricular reforms in physics education, these methods have provided our students with the ability to much more than just manipulate equations related to spectroscopic and polarization analysis.

The Intrinsic Temperature Sensitivity of Ecosystem Respiration as Explained by Thermodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, K. D.; Arcus, V. L.; Schipper, L. A.; Schwalm, C.

2016-12-01

Biological processes exhibit thermal optima; a range within which processes such as photosynthesis and respiration reach a maximum rate. The response of these processes to temperature is well observed in the field and lab experiments, but is poorly captured or explained by widely used Arrhenius equations and Q10 constants. Both Arrhenius and Q10-based explanations of respiration misleadingly project an exponential increase in rate with temperature and rely on concepts such as enzyme denaturation to explain decreases at higher temperatures. This explanation is problematic in that it ignores observed declines which are far below experimental observations of enzyme denaturation. Here, we present a novel theory which explains the intrinsic temperature dependence of plant, soil, and ecosystem respiration based on the thermodynamics of enzyme-catalysed reactions. MacroMolecular Rate Theory (MMRT) allows for the calculation of thermal optima for respiration and photosynthesis (an important input substrate for respiration), as well as for the calculation of the curvature of response which defines temperatures where changes in rates are maximal. To test this theory, we used the recently released FLUXNET2015 dataset which is comprised of 165 sites and 23 years of data. We accounted for the effect of water through partial correlation analysis and extracted the temperature signal of respiration and photosynthesis to fit MacroMolecular Rate Theory. Across ecosystems and biomes, photosynthesis and respiration rates maximized at 7-18oC and 15-27oC respectively. At 16-25oC, and 26-36oC rates photosynthesis and respiration declined. These points, and this method for explaining changes in these processes are important for understanding and predicting net ecosystem carbon gain or loss. They demonstrate temperatures where the sign and magnitude of carbon exchange undergoes important shifts, holding important implications for future carbon cycling.

Mach-Effect thruster model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tajmar, M.

2017-12-01

The Mach-Effect thruster is a propellantless propulsion concept that has been in development by J.F. Woodward for more than two decades. It consists of a piezo stack that produces mass fluctuations, which in turn can lead to net time-averaged thrusts. So far, thrust predictions had to use an efficiency factor to explain some two orders of magnitude discrepancy between model and observations. Here, a detailed 1D analytical model is presented that takes piezo material parameters and geometry dimensions into account leading to correct thrust predictions in line with experimental measurements. Scaling laws can now be derived to improve thrust range and efficiency. An important difference in this study is that only the mechanical power developed by the piezo stack is considered to be responsible for the mass fluctuations, whereas prior works focused on the electrical energy into the system. This may explain why some previous designs did not work as expected. The good match between this new mathematical formulation and experiments should boost confidence in the Mach effect thruster concept to stimulate further developments.

Counter ion induced irreversible denaturation of hen egg white lysozyme upon electrostatic interaction with iron oxide nanoparticles: a predicted model.

PubMed

Ghosh, Goutam; Panicker, Lata; Ningthoujam, R S; Barick, K C; Tewari, R

2013-03-01

The effects of electrostatic interaction between the hen egg white lysozyme (HEWL) and the functionalized iron oxide nanoparticles (IONPs) have been investigated using several techniques, e.g., CD, DSC, ζ-potential, UV-visible spectroscopy, DLS, TEM. Nanoparticles (IONPs) were functionalized with three hydrophilic ligands, viz., poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG), trisodium citrate (TSC) and sodium triphosphate (STP); where both TSC and STP contain Na(+) counter ions. It has been observed that the secondary structure of HEWL was not affected by PEG functionalized IONPs, but was partially and almost completely perturbed by TSC and STP functionalized IONPs, respectively. The perturbation of the secondary structure was irreversible. We have predicted an interaction model to explain the origin of perturbation of HEWL structure. We have also investigated the stability of nanoparticles dispersions after interaction with HEWL and used the DLVO theory to explain results. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The limits of a limited future time perspective in explaining age differences in emotional functioning.

PubMed

Grühn, Daniel; Sharifian, Neika; Chu, Qiao

2016-09-01

Although a limited future time perspective (FTP) has been theorized to be the underlying mechanism of positive emotional functioning later in life, there is scant empirical evidence for this position. Using an integrative data-analytic approach, we investigated the predictive value of FTP, age, and subjective health in explaining emotional functioning in a sample of 2,504 adults (17 to 87 years, M = 35.5, SD = 14.2). Although older adults reported a more limited FTP than younger adults, age and a limited FTP had opposite effects in predicting subjective well-being, affect, positive emotions, empathy, and attitudes toward emotions. That is, old age was linked to a more adaptive emotional profile, whereas a limited FTP was linked to a more maladaptive emotional profile. This was the case even after controlling for health-related aspects. The findings question the usage of FTP as an explanatory variable for observed age differences in emotional functioning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

The probabilistic nature of preferential choice.

PubMed

Rieskamp, Jörg

2008-11-01

Previous research has developed a variety of theories explaining when and why people's decisions under risk deviate from the standard economic view of expected utility maximization. These theories are limited in their predictive accuracy in that they do not explain the probabilistic nature of preferential choice, that is, why an individual makes different choices in nearly identical situations, or why the magnitude of these inconsistencies varies in different situations. To illustrate the advantage of probabilistic theories, three probabilistic theories of decision making under risk are compared with their deterministic counterparts. The probabilistic theories are (a) a probabilistic version of a simple choice heuristic, (b) a probabilistic version of cumulative prospect theory, and (c) decision field theory. By testing the theories with the data from three experimental studies, the superiority of the probabilistic models over their deterministic counterparts in predicting people's decisions under risk become evident. When testing the probabilistic theories against each other, decision field theory provides the best account of the observed behavior.

A critical review of noise production models for turbulent, gas-fueled burners

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahan, J. R.

1984-01-01

The combustion noise literature for the period between 1952 and early 1984 is critically reviewed. Primary emphasis is placed on past theoretical and semi-empirical attempts to predict or explain observed direct combustion noise characteristics of turbulent, gas-fueled burners; works involving liquid-fueled burners are reviewed only when ideas equally applicable to gas-fueled burners are pesented. The historical development of the most important contemporary direct combustion noise theories is traced, and the theories themselves are compared and criticized. While most theories explain combustion noise production by turbulent flames in terms of randomly distributed acoustic monopoles produced by turbulent mixing of products and reactants, none is able to predict the sound pressure in the acoustic farfield of a practical burner because of the lack of a proven model which relates the combustion noise source strenght at a given frequency to the design and operating parameters of the burner. Recommendations are given for establishing a benchmark-quality data base needed to support the development of such a model.

Haze heats Pluto's atmosphere yet explains its cold temperature.

PubMed

Zhang, Xi; Strobel, Darrell F; Imanaka, Hiroshi

2017-11-15

Pluto's atmosphere is cold and hazy. Recent observations have shown it to be much colder than predicted theoretically, suggesting an unknown cooling mechanism. Atmospheric gas molecules, particularly water vapour, have been proposed as a coolant; however, because Pluto's thermal structure is expected to be in radiative-conductive equilibrium, the required water vapour would need to be supersaturated by many orders of magnitude under thermodynamic equilibrium conditions. Here we report that atmospheric hazes, rather than gases, can explain Pluto's temperature profile. We find that haze particles have substantially larger solar heating and thermal cooling rates than gas molecules, dominating the atmospheric radiative balance from the ground to an altitude of 700 kilometres, above which heat conduction maintains an isothermal atmosphere. We conclude that Pluto's atmosphere is unique among Solar System planetary atmospheres, as its radiative energy equilibrium is controlled primarily by haze particles instead of gas molecules. We predict that Pluto is therefore several orders of magnitude brighter at mid-infrared wavelengths than previously thought-a brightness that could be detected by future telescopes.

Paleomagnetic tests of tectonic reconstructions of the India-Asia collision zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wentao; Hinsbergen, Douwe J. J.; Lippert, Peter C.; Guo, Zhaojie; Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume

2015-04-01

Several solutions have been proposed to explain the long-standing kinematic observation that postcollisional upper crustal shortening within the Himalaya and Asia is much less than the magnitude of India-Asia convergence. Here we implement these hypotheses in global plate reconstructions and test paleolatitudes predicted by the global apparent polar wander path against independent, and the most robust paleomagnetic data. Our tests demonstrate that (1) reconstructed 600-750 km postcollisional intra-Asian shortening is a minimum value; (2) a 52 Ma collision age is only consistent with paleomagnetic data if intra-Asian shortening was ~900 km; a ~56-58 Ma collision age requires greater intra-Asian shortening; (3) collision ages of 34 or 65 Ma incorrectly predict Late Cretaceous and Paleogene paleolatitudes of the Tibetan Himalaya (TH); and (4) Cretaceous counterclockwise rotation of India cannot explain the paleolatitudinal divergence between the TH and India. All hypotheses, regardless of collision age, require major Cretaceous extension within Greater India.

Increased shell entropy as an explanation for observed decreased shell areal densities in OMEGA implosions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, Nelson; Herrmann, Hans; Kim, Yongho

2014-10-01

A reduced ion-kinetic (RIK) model used in hydrodynamic simulations has had some success in explaining time- and space-averaged observables characterizing the fusion fuel in hot low-density ICF capsule implosions driven by 1-ns 60-beam laser pulses at OMEGA. But observables characterizing the capsule shell, e.g., the areal density of 12C in a plastic shell, have proved harder to explain. Recently we have found that assuming the shell has higher entropy than expected in a 1D laser-driven RIK simulation allows an explanation of the observed values of 12C areal density, and its dependence on initial shell thickness in a set of DT-filled plastic capsules. If, for example, a 15- μm CH shell implodes on an adiabat two to three times higher than predicted in a typical unmodified RIK simulation, the calculated burn-averaged shell areal density decreases from ~80 mg/cm2 in the unmodified simulation to the observed value of ~25 mg/cm2. We discuss possible mechanisms that could lead to increased entropy in such implosions. Research supported by U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC52-06NA25396.

Evaluating Antarctic sea ice predictability at seasonal to interannual timescales in global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchi, Sylvain; Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues; Zunz, Violette; Tietsche, Steffen; Day, Jonny; Hawkins, Ed

2016-04-01

Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent over recent decades. Although many processes have already been suggested to explain this positive trend, it remains the subject of current investigations. Understanding the evolution of the Antarctic sea ice turns out to be more complicated than for the Arctic for two reasons: the lack of observations and the well-known biases of climate models in the Southern Ocean. Irrespective of those issues, another one is to determine whether the positive trend in sea ice extent would have been predictable if adequate observations and models were available some decades ago. This study of Antarctic sea ice predictability is carried out using 6 global climate models (HadGEM1.2, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL CM3, EC-Earth V2, MIROC 5.2 and ECHAM 6-FESOM) which are all part of the APPOSITE project. These models are used to perform hindcast simulations in a perfect model approach. The predictive skill is estimated thanks to the PPP (Potential Prognostic Predictability) and the ACC (Anomaly Correlation Coefficient). The former is a measure of the uncertainty of the ensemble while the latter assesses the accuracy of the prediction. These two indicators are applied to different variables related to sea ice, in particular the total sea ice extent and the ice edge location. This first model intercomparison study about sea ice predictability in the Southern Ocean aims at giving a general overview of Antarctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models.

Dopaminergic control of motivation and reinforcement learning: a closed-circuit account for reward-oriented behavior.

PubMed

Morita, Kenji; Morishima, Mieko; Sakai, Katsuyuki; Kawaguchi, Yasuo

2013-05-15

Humans and animals take actions quickly when they expect that the actions lead to reward, reflecting their motivation. Injection of dopamine receptor antagonists into the striatum has been shown to slow such reward-seeking behavior, suggesting that dopamine is involved in the control of motivational processes. Meanwhile, neurophysiological studies have revealed that phasic response of dopamine neurons appears to represent reward prediction error, indicating that dopamine plays central roles in reinforcement learning. However, previous attempts to elucidate the mechanisms of these dopaminergic controls have not fully explained how the motivational and learning aspects are related and whether they can be understood by the way the activity of dopamine neurons itself is controlled by their upstream circuitries. To address this issue, we constructed a closed-circuit model of the corticobasal ganglia system based on recent findings regarding intracortical and corticostriatal circuit architectures. Simulations show that the model could reproduce the observed distinct motivational effects of D1- and D2-type dopamine receptor antagonists. Simultaneously, our model successfully explains the dopaminergic representation of reward prediction error as observed in behaving animals during learning tasks and could also explain distinct choice biases induced by optogenetic stimulation of the D1 and D2 receptor-expressing striatal neurons. These results indicate that the suggested roles of dopamine in motivational control and reinforcement learning can be understood in a unified manner through a notion that the indirect pathway of the basal ganglia represents the value of states/actions at a previous time point, an empirically driven key assumption of our model.

Modeling and Predicting the Stress Relaxation of Composites with Short and Randomly Oriented Fibers

PubMed Central

Obaid, Numaira; Sain, Mohini

2017-01-01

The addition of short fibers has been experimentally observed to slow the stress relaxation of viscoelastic polymers, producing a change in the relaxation time constant. Our recent study attributed this effect of fibers on stress relaxation behavior to the interfacial shear stress transfer at the fiber-matrix interface. This model explained the effect of fiber addition on stress relaxation without the need to postulate structural changes at the interface. In our previous study, we developed an analytical model for the effect of fully aligned short fibers, and the model predictions were successfully compared to finite element simulations. However, in most industrial applications of short-fiber composites, fibers are not aligned, and hence it is necessary to examine the time dependence of viscoelastic polymers containing randomly oriented short fibers. In this study, we propose an analytical model to predict the stress relaxation behavior of short-fiber composites where the fibers are randomly oriented. The model predictions were compared to results obtained from Monte Carlo finite element simulations, and good agreement between the two was observed. The analytical model provides an excellent tool to accurately predict the stress relaxation behavior of randomly oriented short-fiber composites. PMID:29053601

Role of viscosity in the magnetic field effect on pyrene-DMA exciplex emission at different permittivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jana, Amit Kumar; Roy, Partha; Nath, Deb Narayan

2014-02-01

Effect of viscosity variation on the magnetic field effect in pyrene-N,N-dimethylaniline exciplex luminescence has been studied at different permittivity values. The data is compatible to the model of Krissinel et al. (1999) [10] reported earlier to explain the effect probing the escape yield of radical pairs. It is shown that the data can also be explained on the basis of a simple model. It is interesting to note that the present letter also demonstrates the positive slope of MFE with diffusivity at extremely high viscous condition as predicted by Krissinel et al. (1999) [10] which has not been observed in earlier experiments.

Muon-Induced Neutrons Do Not Explain the DAMA Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klinger, J.; Kudryavtsev, V. A.

2015-04-01

We present an accurate model of the muon-induced background in the DAMA/LIBRA experiment. Our work challenges proposed mechanisms which seek to explain the observed DAMA signal modulation with muon-induced backgrounds. Muon generation and transport are performed using the MUSIC /MUSUN code, and subsequent interactions in the vicinity of the DAMA detector cavern are simulated with Geant4. We estimate the total muon-induced neutron flux in the detector cavern to be Φnν=1.0 ×10-9 cm-2 s-1 . We predict 3.49 ×10-5 counts /day /kg /keV , which accounts for less than 0.3% of the DAMA signal modulation amplitude.

Masked priming effect reflects evidence accumulated by the prime.

PubMed

Kinoshita, Sachiko; Norris, Dennis

2010-01-01

In the same-different match task, masked priming is observed with the same responses but not different responses. Norris and Kinoshita's (2008) Bayesian reader account of masked priming explains this pattern based on the same principle as that explaining the absence of priming for nonwords in the lexical decision task. The pattern of priming follows from the way the model makes optimal decisions in the two tasks; priming does not depend on first activating the prime and then the target. An alternative explanation is in terms of a bias towards responding "same" that exactly counters the facilitatory effect of lexical access. The present study tested these two views by varying both the degree to which the prime predicts the response and the visibility of the prime. Unmasked primes produced effects expected from the view that priming is influenced by the degree to which the prime predicts the response. In contrast, with masked primes, the size of priming for the same response was completely unaffected by predictability. These results rule out response bias as an explanation of the absence of masked priming for different responses and, in turn, indicate that masked priming is not a consequence of automatic lexical access of the prime.

Adaptation can explain evidence for encoding of probabilistic information in macaque inferior temporal cortex.

PubMed

Vinken, Kasper; Vogels, Rufin

2017-11-20

In predictive coding theory, the brain is conceptualized as a prediction machine that constantly constructs and updates expectations of the sensory environment [1]. In the context of this theory, Bell et al.[2] recently studied the effect of the probability of task-relevant stimuli on the activity of macaque inferior temporal (IT) neurons and observed a reduced population response to expected faces in face-selective neurons. They concluded that "IT neurons encode long-term, latent probabilistic information about stimulus occurrence", supporting predictive coding. They manipulated expectation by the frequency of face versus fruit stimuli in blocks of trials. With such a design, stimulus repetition is confounded with expectation. As previous studies showed that IT neurons decrease their response with repetition [3], such adaptation (or repetition suppression), instead of expectation suppression as assumed by the authors, could explain their effects. The authors attempted to control for this alternative interpretation with a multiple regression approach. Here we show by using simulation that adaptation can still masquerade as expectation effects reported in [2]. Further, the results from the regression model used for most analyses cannot be trusted, because the model is not uniquely defined. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP): Towards Predicting Next Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imada, S.; Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Shiota, D.; Kanou, O.; Fujiyama, M.; Kusano, K.

2016-10-01

It is believed that the longer-term variations of the solar activity can affect the Earth's climate. Therefore, predicting the next solar cycle is crucial for the forecast of the "solar-terrestrial environment". To build prediction schemes for the activity level of the next solar cycle is a key for the long-term space weather study. Although three-years prediction can be almost achieved, the prediction of next solar cycle is very limited, so far. We are developing a five-years prediction scheme by combining the Surface Flux Transport (SFT) model and the most accurate measurements of solar magnetic fields as a part of the PSTEP (Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction),. We estimate the meridional flow, differential rotation, and turbulent diffusivity from recent modern observations (Hinode and Solar Dynamics Observatory). These parameters are used in the SFT models to predict the polar magnetic fields strength at the solar minimum. In this presentation, we will explain the outline of our strategy to predict the next solar cycle. We also report the present status and the future perspective of our project.

The Role of Genome Accessibility in Transcription Factor Binding in Bacteria.

PubMed

Gomes, Antonio L C; Wang, Harris H

2016-04-01

ChIP-seq enables genome-scale identification of regulatory regions that govern gene expression. However, the biological insights generated from ChIP-seq analysis have been limited to predictions of binding sites and cooperative interactions. Furthermore, ChIP-seq data often poorly correlate with in vitro measurements or predicted motifs, highlighting that binding affinity alone is insufficient to explain transcription factor (TF)-binding in vivo. One possibility is that binding sites are not equally accessible across the genome. A more comprehensive biophysical representation of TF-binding is required to improve our ability to understand, predict, and alter gene expression. Here, we show that genome accessibility is a key parameter that impacts TF-binding in bacteria. We developed a thermodynamic model that parameterizes ChIP-seq coverage in terms of genome accessibility and binding affinity. The role of genome accessibility is validated using a large-scale ChIP-seq dataset of the M. tuberculosis regulatory network. We find that accounting for genome accessibility led to a model that explains 63% of the ChIP-seq profile variance, while a model based in motif score alone explains only 35% of the variance. Moreover, our framework enables de novo ChIP-seq peak prediction and is useful for inferring TF-binding peaks in new experimental conditions by reducing the need for additional experiments. We observe that the genome is more accessible in intergenic regions, and that increased accessibility is positively correlated with gene expression and anti-correlated with distance to the origin of replication. Our biophysically motivated model provides a more comprehensive description of TF-binding in vivo from first principles towards a better representation of gene regulation in silico, with promising applications in systems biology.

Normative morphometric data for cerebral cortical areas over the lifetime of the adult human brain.

PubMed

Potvin, Olivier; Dieumegarde, Louis; Duchesne, Simon

2017-08-01

Proper normative data of anatomical measurements of cortical regions, allowing to quantify brain abnormalities, are lacking. We developed norms for regional cortical surface areas, thicknesses, and volumes based on cross-sectional MRI scans from 2713 healthy individuals aged 18 to 94 years using 23 samples provided by 21 independent research groups. The segmentation was conducted using FreeSurfer, a widely used and freely available automated segmentation software. Models predicting regional cortical estimates of each hemisphere were produced using age, sex, estimated total intracranial volume (eTIV), scanner manufacturer, magnetic field strength, and interactions as predictors. The explained variance for the left/right cortex was 76%/76% for surface area, 43%/42% for thickness, and 80%/80% for volume. The mean explained variance for all regions was 41% for surface areas, 27% for thicknesses, and 46% for volumes. Age, sex and eTIV predicted most of the explained variance for surface areas and volumes while age was the main predictors for thicknesses. Scanner characteristics generally predicted a limited amount of variance, but this effect was stronger for thicknesses than surface areas and volumes. For new individuals, estimates of their expected surface area, thickness and volume based on their characteristics and the scanner characteristics can be obtained using the derived formulas, as well as Z score effect sizes denoting the extent of the deviation from the normative sample. Models predicting normative values were validated in independent samples of healthy adults, showing satisfactory validation R 2 . Deviations from the normative sample were measured in individuals with mild Alzheimer's disease and schizophrenia and expected patterns of deviations were observed. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A robust classic.

PubMed

Kutzner, Florian; Vogel, Tobias; Freytag, Peter; Fiedler, Klaus

2011-01-01

In the present research, we argue for the robustness of illusory correlations (ICs, Hamilton & Gifford, 1976) regarding two boundary conditions suggested in previous research. First, we argue that ICs are maintained under extended experience. Using simulations, we derive conflicting predictions. Whereas noise-based accounts predict ICs to be maintained (Fielder, 2000; Smith, 1991), a prominent account based on discrepancy-reducing feedback learning predicts ICs to disappear (Van Rooy et al., 2003). An experiment involving 320 observations with majority and minority members supports the claim that ICs are maintained. Second, we show that actively using the stereotype to make predictions that are met with reward and punishment does not eliminate the bias. In addition, participants' operant reactions afford a novel online measure of ICs. In sum, our findings highlight the robustness of ICs that can be explained as a result of unbiased but noisy learning.

Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland, 1991-2011 (I): the role of incomes, effects of socio-economic and political adversity and demographic change.

PubMed

McCartney, G; Bouttell, J; Craig, N; Craig, P; Graham, L; Lakha, F; Lewsey, J; McAdams, R; MacPherson, M; Minton, J; Parkinson, J; Robinson, M; Shipton, D; Taulbut, M; Walsh, D; Beeston, C

2016-03-01

This paper tests the extent to which differing trends in income, demographic change and the consequences of an earlier period of social, economic and political change might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality between 1991 and 2011 in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W). Comparative time trend analyses and arithmetic modelling. Three approaches were utilised to compare Scotland with E&W: 1. We modelled the impact of changes in income on alcohol-related deaths between 1991-2001 and 2001-2011 by applying plausible assumptions of the effect size through an arithmetic model. 2. We used contour plots, graphical exploration of age-period-cohort interactions and calculation of Intrinsic Estimator coefficients to investigate the effect of earlier exposure to social, economic and political adversity on alcohol-related mortality. 3. We recalculated the trends in alcohol-related deaths using the white population only to make a crude approximation of the maximal impact of changes in ethnic diversity. Real incomes increased during the 1990s but declined from around 2004 in the poorest 30% of the population of Great Britain. The decline in incomes for the poorest decile, the proportion of the population in the most deprived decile, and the inequality in alcohol-related deaths, were all greater in Scotland than in E&W. The model predicted less of the observed rise in Scotland (18% of the rise in men and 29% of the rise in women) than that in E&W (where 60% and 68% of the rise in men and women respectively was explained). One-third of the decline observed in alcohol-related mortality in Scottish men between 2001 and 2011 was predicted by the model, and the model was broadly consistent with the observed trends in E&W and amongst women in Scotland. An age-period interaction in alcohol-related mortality was evident for men and women during the 1990s and 2000s who were aged 40-70 years and who experienced rapidly increasing alcohol-related mortality rates. Ethnicity is unlikely to be important in explaining the trends or differences between Scotland and E&W. The decline in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland since the early 2000s and the differing trend to E&W were partly described by a model predicting the impact of declining incomes. Lagged effects from historical social, economic and political change remain plausible from the available data. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Further Insight into the Cardiovascular Risk Calculator Controversy: The Roles of Statins, Revascularizations, and Under-Ascertainment in the Women's Health Study

PubMed Central

Cook, Nancy R.; Ridker, Paul M

2015-01-01

Importance While the Pooled Cohort Equations from the recent ACC/AHA Guideline on the Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk have over-estimated cardiovascular risk in multiple external cohorts, the reasons for the discrepancy are unclear. Objective To determine whether increased use of statins over time, incident coronary revascularization procedures, or under-ascertainment of vascular events explain over-estimation of risk in a more contemporary population. Design, Setting, and Participants 27,542 women aged 45-79 with complete ascertainment of plasma lipids and other risk factors from the Women's Health Study (WHS), a nationwide cohort of US women free of cardiovascular disease, cancer or other major illness at baseline in 1992-95. Women were followed for a median of 10 years. Main Outcomes and Measures Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), defined as any myocardial infarction, any stroke, or death due to cardiovascular cause. Results 632 women experienced an ASCVD event over follow-up. The average predicted risk from the Pooled Cohort Equations was 3.6% over 10 years, compared to an actual observed risk of 2.2%. Predicted rates were 90% higher than the observed rates in the 0-<5% and 5-<7.5% risk groups and 40% higher in the 7.5-<10% and 10%+ risk groups. Rates of statin use and revascularizations increased over follow-up time and by risk group, and in sensitivity analyses, we estimated the hypothetical rates if no women were on statins or underwent revascularization procedures. After adjustment for intervention effects of statins and revascularization as well as hypothetical confounding by indication, predicted rates remained 80% higher than observed rates in the lower two risk groups and 30% higher in the upper two risk groups. Under-ascertainment is unlikely since follow-up rates in the WHS were 97%, and overall we would need 60% more events to match the numbers predicted using the Pooled Cohort Equations. Conclusions and Relevance Neither statin use, revascularization procedures, nor under-ascertainment of events explain the discrepancy between observed rates of ASCVD in the WHS and those predicted by the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations. Other explanations include changing patterns of risk within more contemporary populations. PMID:25285455

Far-Field and Middle-Field Vertical Velocities Associated with Megathrust Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleitout, L.; Trubienko, O.; Klein, E.; Vigny, C.; Garaud, J.; Shestakov, N.; Satirapod, C.; Simons, W. J.

2013-12-01

The recent megathrust earthquakes (Sumatra, Chili and Japan) have induced far-field postseismic subsidence with velocities from a few mm/yr to more than 1cm/yr at distances from 500 to 1500km from the earthquake epicentre, for several years following the earthquake. This subsidence is observed in Argentina, China, Korea, far-East Russia and in Malaysia and Thailand as reported by Satirapod et al. ( ASR, 2013). In the middle-field a very pronounced uplift is localized on the flank of the volcanic arc facing the trench. This is observed both over Honshu, in Chile and on the South-West coast of Sumatra. In Japan, the deformations prior to Tohoku earthquake are well measured by the GSI GPS network: While the East coast was slightly subsiding, the West coast was raising. A 3D finite element code (Zebulon-Zset) is used to understand the deformations through the seismic cycle in the areas surrounding the last three large subduction earthquakes. The meshes designed for each region feature a broad spherical shell portion with a viscoelastic asthenosphere. They are refined close to the subduction zones. Using these finite element models, we find that the pattern of the predicted far-field vertical postseismic displacements depends upon the thicknesses of the elastic plate and of the low viscosity asthenosphere. A low viscosity asthenosphere at shallow depth, just below the lithosphere is required to explain the subsidence at distances from 500 to 1500km. A thick (for example 600km) asthenosphere with a uniform viscosity predicts subsidence too far away from the trench. Slip on the subduction interface is unable tot induce the observed far-field subsidence. However, a combination of relaxation in a low viscosity wedge and slip or relaxation on the bottom part of the subduction interface is necessary to explain the observed postseismic uplift in the middle-field (volcanic arc area). The creep laws of the various zones used to explain the postseismic data can be injected in models predicting deformations through the whole seismic cycle. In the far-field, the uplift compensating the postseismic subsidence occurs at a rather moderate rate. In the middle field, a slight subsidence or a velocity close to zero is expected on the subduction side of the volcanic arc while uplift is expected on the continent side of the arc. This is in good agreement with the pattern of vertical velocities observed in Northern Honshu previous to Tohoku earthquake.

Evaluation of WRF-Predicted Near-Hub-Height Winds and Ramp Events over a Pacific Northwest Site with Complex Terrain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Qing; Berg, Larry K.; Pekour, Mikhail

The WRF model version 3.3 is used to simulate near hub-height winds and power ramps utilizing three commonly used planetary boundary-layer (PBL) schemes: Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), University of Washington (UW), and Yonsei University (YSU). The predicted winds have small mean biases compared with observations. Power ramps and step changes (changes within an hour) consistently show that the UW scheme performed better in predicting up ramps under stable conditions with higher prediction accuracy and capture rates. Both YSU and UW scheme show good performance predicting up- and down- ramps under unstable conditions with YSU being slightly better for ramp durations longer thanmore » an hour. MYJ is the most successful simulating down-ramps under stable conditions. The high wind speed and large shear associated with low-level jets are frequently associated with power ramps, and the biases in predicted low-level jet explain some of the shown differences in ramp predictions among different PBL schemes. Low-level jets were observed as low as ~200 m in altitude over the Columbia Basin Wind Energy Study (CBWES) site, located in an area of complex terrain. The shear, low-level peak wind speeds, as well as the height of maximum wind speed are not well predicted. Model simulations with 3 PBL schemes show the largest variability among them under stable conditions.« less

Ecosystem CO2/H2O fluxes are explained by hydraulically limited gas exchange during tree mortality from spruce bark beetles

Treesearch

John M. Frank; William J. Massman; Brent E. Ewers; Laurie S. Huckaby; Jose F. Negron

2014-01-01

Disturbances are increasing globally due to anthropogenic changes in land use and climate. This study determines whether a disturbance that affects the physiology of individual trees can be used to predict the response of the ecosystem by weighing two competing hypothesis at annual time scales: (a) changes in ecosystem fluxes are proportional to observable patterns of...

An Exploration of Students' Science Learning Interest Related to Their Cognitive Anxiety, Cognitive Load, Self-Confidence and Learning Progress Using Inquiry-Based Learning with an iPad

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hong, Jon-Chao; Hwang, Ming-Yueh; Tai, Kai-Hsin; Tsai, Chi-Ruei

2017-01-01

Based on the cognitive-affective theory, the present study designed a science inquiry learning model, "predict-observe-explain" (POE), and implemented it in an app called "WhyWhy" to examine the effectiveness of students' science inquiry learning practice. To understand how POE can affect the cognitive-affective learning…

Does a Fitness Factor Contribute to the Association between Intelligence and Health Outcomes? Evidence from Medical Abnormality Counts among 3654 US Veterans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arden, Rosalind; Gottfredson, Linda S.; Miller, Geoffrey

2009-01-01

We suggest that an over-arching "fitness factor" (an index of general genetic quality that predicts survival and reproductive success) partially explains the observed associations between health outcomes and intelligence. As a proof of concept, we tested this idea in a sample of 3654 US Vietnam veterans aged 31-49 who completed five cognitive…

Decision-Making in National Security Affairs: Toward a Typology.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-06-07

decisional model, and thus provide the necessary linkage between observation and application of theory in explaining and/or predicting policy decisions . r...examines theories and models of decision -making processes from an interdisciplinary perspective, with a view toward deriving means by which the behavior of...processes, game theory , linear programming, network and graph theory , time series analysis, and the like. The discipline of decision analysis is a relatively

Modeling and evaluation of urban pollution events of atmospheric heavy metals from a large Cu-smelter.

PubMed

Chen, Bing; Stein, Ariel F; Castell, Nuria; Gonzalez-Castanedo, Yolanda; Sanchez de la Campa, A M; de la Rosa, J D

2016-01-01

Metal smelting and processing are highly polluting activities that have a strong influence on the levels of heavy metals in air, soil, and crops. We employ an atmospheric transport and dispersion model to predict the pollution levels originated from the second largest Cu-smelter in Europe. The model predicts that the concentrations of copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), and arsenic (As) in an urban area close to the Cu-smelter can reach 170, 70, and 30 ng m−3, respectively. The model captures all the observed urban pollution events, but the magnitude of the elemental concentrations is predicted to be lower than that of the observed values; ~300, ~500, and ~100 ng m−3 for Cu, Zn, and As, respectively. The comparison between model and observations showed an average correlation coefficient of 0.62 ± 0.13. The simulation shows that the transport of heavy metals reaches a peak in the afternoon over the urban area. The under-prediction in the peak is explained by the simulated stronger winds compared with monitoring data. The stronger simulated winds enhance the transport and dispersion of heavy metals to the regional area, diminishing the impact of pollution events in the urban area. This model, driven by high resolution meteorology (2 km in horizontal), predicts the hourly-interval evolutions of atmospheric heavy metal pollutions in the close by urban area of industrial hotspot.

On the Mass and Luminosity Functions of Tidal Disruption Flares: Rate Suppression due to Black Hole Event Horizons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Velzen, S.

2018-01-01

The tidal disruption of a star by a massive black hole is expected to yield a luminous flare of thermal emission. About two dozen of these stellar tidal disruption flares (TDFs) may have been detected in optical transient surveys. However, explaining the observed properties of these events within the tidal disruption paradigm is not yet possible. This theoretical ambiguity has led some authors to suggest that optical TDFs are due to a different process, such as a nuclear supernova or accretion disk instabilities. Here we present a test of a fundamental prediction of the tidal disruption event scenario: a suppression of the flare rate due to the direct capture of stars by the black hole. Using a recently compiled sample of candidate TDFs with black hole mass measurements, plus a careful treatment of selection effects in this flux-limited sample, we confirm that the dearth of observed TDFs from high-mass black holes is statistically significant. All the TDF impostor models we consider fail to explain the observed mass function; the only scenario that fits the data is a suppression of the rate due to direct captures. We find that this suppression can explain the low volumetric rate of the luminous TDF candidate ASASSN-15lh, thus supporting the hypothesis that this flare belongs to the TDF family. Our work is the first to present the optical TDF luminosity function. A steep power law is required to explain the observed rest-frame g-band luminosity, {dN}/{{dL}}g\\propto {L}g-2.5. The mean event rate of the flares in our sample is ≈ 1× {10}-4 galaxy‑1 yr‑1, consistent with the theoretically expected tidal disruption rate.

Turbulence evolution and transport behavior during current ramp-up in ITER-like plasmas on DIII-D

DOE PAGES

McKee, George R.; Austin, Max E.; Boedo, Jose A.; ...

2017-07-12

Low-wavenumber density fluctuations exhibit unique characteristics during the current ramp-up phase of ITER-like discharges that can partially explain the challenges of correctly modeling transport behavior and predicting global plasma parameters during this period. A strong interaction takes place between the evolving transport, safety factor (q) and kinetic profiles as well as the appearance and evolution of low-order rational surfaces. Density fluctuations from 0.75 < ρ < 0.9 are transiently reduced to exceptionally low levels during early times and from 0.8 < ρ < 0.9 at late times in the ramp-up in a manner that is different from behavior observed duringmore » steady-state plasma conditions with similar values of q 95. Turbulence is suppressed as low-order-rational q-surfaces enter the plasma; the local electron temperature likewise exhibits transient increases during these periods of reduced fluctuations indicating changes in transport that impact temperature and consequently the evolution of current density and plasma inductance. These observations can explain discrepancies between CORSICA modelling and the higher electron temperature found previously over the outer half radius. Comparison of turbulence properties with time-varying linear growth rates with GYRO and GENE demonstrate qualitative consistency with measured fluctuation levels, but calculations don’t exhibit reduced growth rates near low-order rational surfaces, which is inconsistent with experimental observations. Here, this indicates a mechanism that can contribute to reconciling observed turbulence behavior with transport models, allowing for the development of more accurate predictive tools.« less

Turbulence evolution and transport behavior during current ramp-up in ITER-like plasmas on DIII-D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKee, G. R.; Austin, M.; Boedo, J.; Bravenec, R.; Holland, C.; Jackson, G.; Luce, T. C.; Rhodes, T. L.; Rudakov, D.; Wang, G.; Yan, Z.; Zeng, L.; Zhao, Y.

2017-08-01

Low-wavenumber density fluctuations exhibit unique characteristics during the current ramp-up phase of ITER-like discharges that can partially explain the challenges of correctly modeling transport behavior and predicting global plasma parameters during this period. A strong interaction takes place between the evolving transport, safety factor (q) and kinetic profiles as well as the appearance and evolution of low-order rational surfaces. Density fluctuations from 0.75  <  ρ  <  0.9 are transiently reduced to exceptionally low levels during early times and from 0.8  <  ρ  <  0.9 at late times in the ramp-up in a manner that is different from behavior observed during steady-state plasma conditions with similar values of q 95. Turbulence is suppressed as low-order-rational q-surfaces enter the plasma; the local electron temperature likewise exhibits transient increases during these periods of reduced fluctuations indicating changes in transport that impact temperature and consequently the evolution of current density and plasma inductance. These observations can explain discrepancies between CORSICA modelling and the higher electron temperature found previously over the outer half radius. Comparison of turbulence properties with time-varying linear growth rates with GYRO and GENE demonstrate qualitative consistency with measured fluctuation levels, but calculations don’t exhibit reduced growth rates near low-order rational surfaces, which is inconsistent with experimental observations. This indicates a mechanism that can contribute to reconciling observed turbulence behavior with transport models, allowing for the development of more accurate predictive tools.

Master plot analysis of microcracking in graphite/epoxy and graphite/PEEK laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nairn, John A.; Hu, Shoufeng; Bark, Jong Song

1993-01-01

We used a variational stress analysis and an energy release rate failure criterion to construct a master plot analysis of matrix microcracking. In the master plot, the results for all laminates of a single material are predicted to fall on a single line whose slope gives the microcracking toughness of the material. Experimental results from 18 different layups of AS4/3501-6 laminates show that the master plot analysis can explain all observations. In particular, it can explain the differences between microcracking of central 90 deg plies and of free-surface 90 deg plies. Experimental results from two different AS4/PEEK laminates tested at different temperatures can be explained by a modified master plot that accounts for changes in the residual thermal stresses. Finally, we constructed similar master plot analyses for previous literature microcracking models. All microcracking theories that ignore the thickness dependence of the stresses gave poor results.

Satellite remote sensing data can be used to model marine microbial metabolite turnover

PubMed Central

Larsen, Peter E; Scott, Nicole; Post, Anton F; Field, Dawn; Knight, Rob; Hamada, Yuki; Gilbert, Jack A

2015-01-01

Sampling ecosystems, even at a local scale, at the temporal and spatial resolution necessary to capture natural variability in microbial communities are prohibitively expensive. We extrapolated marine surface microbial community structure and metabolic potential from 72 16S rRNA amplicon and 8 metagenomic observations using remotely sensed environmental parameters to create a system-scale model of marine microbial metabolism for 5904 grid cells (49 km2) in the Western English Chanel, across 3 years of weekly averages. Thirteen environmental variables predicted the relative abundance of 24 bacterial Orders and 1715 unique enzyme-encoding genes that encode turnover of 2893 metabolites. The genes' predicted relative abundance was highly correlated (Pearson Correlation 0.72, P-value <10−6) with their observed relative abundance in sequenced metagenomes. Predictions of the relative turnover (synthesis or consumption) of CO2 were significantly correlated with observed surface CO2 fugacity. The spatial and temporal variation in the predicted relative abundances of genes coding for cyanase, carbon monoxide and malate dehydrogenase were investigated along with the predicted inter-annual variation in relative consumption or production of ∼3000 metabolites forming six significant temporal clusters. These spatiotemporal distributions could possibly be explained by the co-occurrence of anaerobic and aerobic metabolisms associated with localized plankton blooms or sediment resuspension, which facilitate the presence of anaerobic micro-niches. This predictive model provides a general framework for focusing future sampling and experimental design to relate biogeochemical turnover to microbial ecology. PMID:25072414

Assessing the stability of human locomotion: a review of current measures

PubMed Central

Bruijn, S. M.; Meijer, O. G.; Beek, P. J.; van Dieën, J. H.

2013-01-01

Falling poses a major threat to the steadily growing population of the elderly in modern-day society. A major challenge in the prevention of falls is the identification of individuals who are at risk of falling owing to an unstable gait. At present, several methods are available for estimating gait stability, each with its own advantages and disadvantages. In this paper, we review the currently available measures: the maximum Lyapunov exponent (λS and λL), the maximum Floquet multiplier, variability measures, long-range correlations, extrapolated centre of mass, stabilizing and destabilizing forces, foot placement estimator, gait sensitivity norm and maximum allowable perturbation. We explain what these measures represent and how they are calculated, and we assess their validity, divided up into construct validity, predictive validity in simple models, convergent validity in experimental studies, and predictive validity in observational studies. We conclude that (i) the validity of variability measures and λS is best supported across all levels, (ii) the maximum Floquet multiplier and λL have good construct validity, but negative predictive validity in models, negative convergent validity and (for λL) negative predictive validity in observational studies, (iii) long-range correlations lack construct validity and predictive validity in models and have negative convergent validity, and (iv) measures derived from perturbation experiments have good construct validity, but data are lacking on convergent validity in experimental studies and predictive validity in observational studies. In closing, directions for future research on dynamic gait stability are discussed. PMID:23516062

Satellite remote sensing data can be used to model marine microbial metabolite turnover

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larsen, Peter E.; Scott, Nicole; Post, Anton F.

Sampling ecosystems, even at a local scale, at the temporal and spatial resolution necessary to capture natural variability in microbial communities are prohibitively expensive. We extrapolated marine surface microbial community structure and metabolic potential from 72 16S rRNA amplicon and 8 metagenomic observations using remotely sensed environmental parameters to create a system-scale model of marine microbial metabolism for 5904 grid cells (49 km2) in the Western English Chanel, across 3 years of weekly averages. Thirteen environmental variables predicted the relative abundance of 24 bacterial Orders and 1715 unique enzyme-encoding genes that encode turnover of 2893 metabolites. The genes’ predicted relativemore » abundance was highly correlated (Pearson Correlation 0.72, P-value <10-6) with their observed relative abundance in sequenced metagenomes. Predictions of the relative turnover (synthesis or consumption) of CO2 were significantly correlated with observed surface CO2 fugacity. The spatial and temporal variation in the predicted relative abundances of genes coding for cyanase, carbon monoxide and malate dehydrogenase were investigated along with the predicted inter-annual variation in relative consumption or production of ~3000 metabolites forming six significant temporal clusters. These spatiotemporal distributions could possibly be explained by the co-occurrence of anaerobic and aerobic metabolisms associated with localized plankton blooms or sediment resuspension, which facilitate the presence of anaerobic micro-niches. This predictive model provides a general framework for focusing future sampling and experimental design to relate biogeochemical turnover to microbial ecology.« less

Telluric currents: A meeting of theory and observation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boteler, D.H.; Seager, W.H.

Pipe-to-soil (P/S) potential variations resulting from telluric currents have been observed on pipelines in many locations. However, it has never teen clear which parts of a pipeline will experience the worst effects. Two studies were conducted to answer this question. Distributed-source transmission line (DSTL) theory was applied to the problem of modeling geomagnetic induction in pipelines. This theory predicted that the largest P/S potential variations would occur at the ends of the pipeline. The theory also predicted that large P/S potential variations, of opposite sign, should occur on either side of an insulating flange. Independently, an observation program was conductedmore » to determine the change in telluric current P/S potential variations and to design counteractive measures along a pipeline in northern Canada. Observations showed that the amplitude of P/S potential fluctuations had maxima at the northern and southern ends of the pipeline. A further set of recordings around an insulating flange showed large P/S potential variations, of opposite sign, on either side of the flange. Agreement between the observations and theoretical predictions was remarkable. While the observations confirmed the theory, the theory explains how P/S potential variations are produced by telluric currents and provides the basis for design of cathodic protection systems for pipelines that can counteract any adverse telluric effects.« less

Resilience of honeybee colonies via common stomach: A model of self-regulation of foraging

PubMed Central

Schmickl, Thomas

2017-01-01

We propose a new regulation mechanism based on the idea of the “common stomach” to explain several aspects of the resilience and homeostatic regulation of honeybee colonies. This mechanism exploits shared pools of substances (pollen, nectar, workers, brood) that modulate recruitment, abandonment and allocation patterns at the colony-level and enable bees to perform several survival strategies to cope with difficult circumstances: Lack of proteins leads to reduced feeding of young brood, to early capping of old brood and to regaining of already spent proteins through brood cannibalism. We modeled this system by linear interaction terms and mass-action law. To test the predictive power of the model of this regulatory mechanism we compared our model predictions to experimental data of several studies. These comparisons show that the proposed regulation mechanism can explain a variety of colony level behaviors. Detailed analysis of the model revealed that these mechanisms could explain the resilience, stability and self-regulation observed in honeybee colonies. We found that manipulation of material flow and applying sudden perturbations to colony stocks are quickly compensated by a resulting counter-acting shift in task selection. Selective analysis of feedback loops allowed us to discriminate the importance of different feedback loops in self-regulation of honeybee colonies. We stress that a network of simple proximate mechanisms can explain significant colony-level abilities that can also be seen as ultimate reasoning of the evolutionary trajectory of honeybees. PMID:29161278

A model for longitudinal and shear wave propagation in viscoelastic media

PubMed

Szabo; Wu

2000-05-01

Relaxation models fail to predict and explain loss characteristics of many viscoelastic materials which follow a frequency power law. A model based on a time-domain statement of causality is presented that describes observed power-law behavior of many viscoelastic materials. A Hooke's law is derived from power-law loss characteristics; it reduces to the Hooke's law for the Voigt model for the specific case of quadratic frequency loss. Broadband loss and velocity data for both longitudinal and shear elastic types of waves agree well with predictions. These acoustic loss models are compared to theories for loss mechanisms in dielectrics based on isolated polar molecules and cooperative interactions.

The effectiveness of research-based physics learning module with predict-observe-explain strategies to improve the student’s competence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usmeldi

2018-05-01

The preliminary study shows that many students are difficult to master the concept of physics. There are still many students who have not mastery learning physics. Teachers and students still use textbooks. Students rarely do experiments in the laboratory. One model of learning that can improve students’ competence is a research-based learning with Predict- Observe-Explain (POE) strategies. To implement this learning, research-based physics learning modules with POE strategy are used. The research aims to find out the effectiveness of implementation of research-based physics learning modules with POE strategy to improving the students’ competence. The research used a quasi-experimental with pretest-posttest group control design. Data were collected using observation sheets, achievement test, skill assessment sheets, questionnaire of attitude and student responses to learning implementation. The results of research showed that research-based physics learning modules with POE strategy was effective to improve the students’ competence, in the case of (1) mastery learning of physics has been achieved by majority of students, (2) improving the students competency of experimental class including high category, (3) there is a significant difference between the average score of students’ competence of experimental class and the control class, (4) the average score of the students competency of experimental class is higher than the control class, (5) the average score of the students’ responses to the learning implementation is very good category, this means that most students can implement research-based learning with POE strategies.

[Mechanistic modelling allows to assess pathways of DNA lesion interactions underlying chromosome aberration formation].

PubMed

Eĭdel'man, Iu A; Slanina, S V; Sal'nikov, I V; Andreev, S G

2012-12-01

The knowledge of radiation-induced chromosomal aberration (CA) mechanisms is required in many fields of radiation genetics, radiation biology, biodosimetry, etc. However, these mechanisms are yet to be quantitatively characterised. One of the reasons is that the relationships between primary lesions of DNA/chromatin/chromosomes and dose-response curves for CA are unknown because the pathways of lesion interactions in an interphase nucleus are currently inaccessible for direct experimental observation. This article aims for the comparative analysis of two principally different scenarios of formation of simple and complex interchromosomal exchange aberrations: by lesion interactions at chromosome territories' surface vs. in the whole space of the nucleus. The analysis was based on quantitative mechanistic modelling of different levels of structures and processes involved in CA formation: chromosome structure in an interphase nucleus, induction, repair and interactions of DNA lesions. It was shown that the restricted diffusion of chromosomal loci, predicted by computational modelling of chromosome organization, results in lesion interactions in the whole space of the nucleus being impossible. At the same time, predicted features of subchromosomal dynamics agrees well with in vivo observations and does not contradict the mechanism of CA formation at the surface of chromosome territories. On the other hand, the "surface mechanism" of CA formation, despite having certain qualities, proved to be insufficient to explain high frequency of complex exchange aberrations observed by mFISH technique. The alternative mechanism, CA formation on nuclear centres is expected to be sufficient to explain frequent complex exchanges.

Suprathermal Electrons in the Solar Corona: Can Nonlocal Transport Explain Heliospheric Charge States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cranmer, Steven R.

2014-08-01

There have been several ideas proposed to explain how the Sun's corona is heated and how the solar wind is accelerated. Some models assume that open magnetic field lines are heated by Alfvén waves driven by photospheric motions and dissipated after undergoing a turbulent cascade. Other models posit that much of the solar wind's mass and energy is injected via magnetic reconnection from closed coronal loops. The latter idea is motivated by observations of reconnecting jets and also by similarities of ion composition between closed loops and the slow wind. Wave/turbulence models have also succeeded in reproducing observed trends in ion composition signatures versus wind speed. However, the absolute values of the charge-state ratios predicted by those models tended to be too low in comparison with observations. This Letter refines these predictions by taking better account of weak Coulomb collisions for coronal electrons, whose thermodynamic properties determine the ion charge states in the low corona. A perturbative description of nonlocal electron transport is applied to an existing set of wave/turbulence models. The resulting electron velocity distributions in the low corona exhibit mild suprathermal tails characterized by "kappa" exponents between 10 and 25. These suprathermal electrons are found to be sufficiently energetic to enhance the charge states of oxygen ions, while maintaining the same relative trend with wind speed that was found when the distribution was assumed to be Maxwellian. The updated wave/turbulence models are in excellent agreement with solar wind ion composition measurements.

The Continuing Allure of Cure: A Response to Alex Broadbent's "Prediction, Understanding, and Medicine".

PubMed

Harris, Chadwin

2018-05-09

In "Prediction, Understanding, and Medicine," Alex Broadbent rejects the curative thesis, the view that the core medical competence is to cure, in favor of his predictive thesis that the main intellectual medical competence is to explain and the main practical medical competence is to predict. Broadbent thinks his account explains the phenomenon of multiple consultation, which is the fact that people persist in consulting alternative medical traditions despite having access to mainstream medicine. I argue that Broadbent's explanation of multiple consultation makes sense only from the perspective of patients who migrate from mainstream to alternative consultation. His explanation is not as convincing when we consider alternative-to-mainstream migration. I also provide an argument against Broadbent's view that prediction is medicine's main practical competence and argue that, when it comes to explaining most cases of multiple consultation, the curative thesis provides a more convincing explanation than the predictive thesis.

Confirming psychogenic nonepileptic seizures with video-EEG: sex matters.

PubMed

Noe, Katherine H; Grade, Madeline; Stonnington, Cynthia M; Driver-Dunckley, Erika; Locke, Dona E C

2012-03-01

The influence of gender on psychogenic nonepileptic seizures (PNES) diagnosis was examined retrospectively in 439 subjects undergoing video-EEG (vEEG) for spell classification, of whom 142 women and 42 men had confirmed PNES. The epileptologist's predicted diagnosis was correct in 72% overall. Confirmed epilepsy was correctly predicted in 94% men and 88% women. In contrast, confirmed PNES was accurately predicted in 86% women versus 61% men (p=0.003). Sex-based differences in likelihood of an indeterminate admission were not observed for predicted epilepsy or physiologic events, but were for predicted PNES (39% men, 12% women, p=0.0002). More frequent failure to record spells in men than women with predicted PNES was not explained by spell frequency, duration of monitoring, age, medication use, or personality profile. PNES are not only less common in men, but also more challenging to recognize in the clinic, and even when suspected more difficult to confirm with vEEG. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Teammate Prosocial and Antisocial Behaviors Predict Task Cohesion and Burnout: The Mediating Role of Affect.

PubMed

Al-Yaaribi, Ali; Kavussanu, Maria

2017-06-01

The manner in which teammates behave toward each other when playing sport could have important achievement-related consequences. However, this issue has received very little research attention. In this study, we investigated whether (a) prosocial and antisocial teammate behaviors predict task cohesion and burnout, and (b) positive and negative affect mediates these relationships. In total, 272 (M age  = 21.86, SD = 4.36) team-sport players completed a multisection questionnaire assessing the aforementioned variables. Structural equation modeling indicated that prosocial teammate behavior positively predicted task cohesion and negatively predicted burnout, and these relationships were mediated by positive affect. The reverse pattern of relationships was observed for antisocial teammate behavior which negatively predicted task cohesion and positively predicted burnout, and these relationships were mediated by negative affect. Our findings underscore the importance of promoting prosocial and reducing antisocial behaviors in sport and highlight the role of affect in explaining the identified relationships.

Random Wiring, Ganglion Cell Mosaics, and the Functional Architecture of the Visual Cortex

PubMed Central

Coppola, David; White, Leonard E.; Wolf, Fred

2015-01-01

The architecture of iso-orientation domains in the primary visual cortex (V1) of placental carnivores and primates apparently follows species invariant quantitative laws. Dynamical optimization models assuming that neurons coordinate their stimulus preferences throughout cortical circuits linking millions of cells specifically predict these invariants. This might indicate that V1’s intrinsic connectome and its functional architecture adhere to a single optimization principle with high precision and robustness. To validate this hypothesis, it is critical to closely examine the quantitative predictions of alternative candidate theories. Random feedforward wiring within the retino-cortical pathway represents a conceptually appealing alternative to dynamical circuit optimization because random dimension-expanding projections are believed to generically exhibit computationally favorable properties for stimulus representations. Here, we ask whether the quantitative invariants of V1 architecture can be explained as a generic emergent property of random wiring. We generalize and examine the stochastic wiring model proposed by Ringach and coworkers, in which iso-orientation domains in the visual cortex arise through random feedforward connections between semi-regular mosaics of retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) and visual cortical neurons. We derive closed-form expressions for cortical receptive fields and domain layouts predicted by the model for perfectly hexagonal RGC mosaics. Including spatial disorder in the RGC positions considerably changes the domain layout properties as a function of disorder parameters such as position scatter and its correlations across the retina. However, independent of parameter choice, we find that the model predictions substantially deviate from the layout laws of iso-orientation domains observed experimentally. Considering random wiring with the currently most realistic model of RGC mosaic layouts, a pairwise interacting point process, the predicted layouts remain distinct from experimental observations and resemble Gaussian random fields. We conclude that V1 layout invariants are specific quantitative signatures of visual cortical optimization, which cannot be explained by generic random feedforward-wiring models. PMID:26575467

Electron-impact vibrational excitation of the hydroxyl radical in the nighttime upper atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, Laurence; Brunger, Michael J.

2018-02-01

Chemical processes produce vibrationally excited hydroxyl (OH) in a layer centred at an altitude of about 87 km in the Earth's atmosphere. Observations of this layer are used to deduce temperatures in the mesosphere and to observe the passage of atmospheric gravity waves. Due to the low densities and energies at night of electrons at the relevant altitude, it is not expected that electron-impact excitation of OH would be significant. However, there are unexplained characteristics of OH densities and radiative emissions that might be explained by electron impact. These are measurements of higher than expected densities of OH above 90 km and of emissions at higher energies that cannot be explained by the chemical production processes. This study simulates the role of electron impact in these processes, using theoretical cross sections for electron-impact excitation of OH. The simulations show that electron impact, even in a substantial aurora, cannot fully explain these phenomena. However, in the process of this investigation, apparent inconsistencies in the theoretical cross sections and reaction rates were found, indicating that measurements of electron-impact excitation of OH are needed to resolve these problems and scale the theoretical predictions to allow more accurate simulations.

EXPLAINING THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN INCARCERATION AND DIVORCE*

PubMed Central

Siennick, Sonja E.; Stewart, Eric A.; Staff, Jeremy

2014-01-01

Recent studies have suggested that incarceration dramatically increases the odds of divorce, but we know little about the mechanisms that explain the association. This study uses prospective longitudinal data from a subset of married young adults in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (N = 1,919) to examine whether incarceration is associated with divorce indirectly via low marital love, economic strain, relationship violence, and extramarital sex. The findings confirmed that incarcerations occurring during, but not before, a marriage were associated with an increased hazard of divorce. Incarcerations occurring during marriage also were associated with less marital love, more relationship violence, more economic strain, and greater odds of extramarital sex. Above-average levels of economic strain were visible among respondents observed preincarceration, but only respondents observed postincarceration showed less marital love, more relationship violence, and higher odds of extramarital sex than did respondents who were not incarcerated during marriage. These relationship problems explained approximately 40 percent of the association between incarceration and marital dissolution. These findings are consistent with theoretical predictions that a spouse’s incarceration alters the rewards and costs of the marriage and the relative attractiveness of alternative partners. PMID:25598544

Bioenergetic evaluation of diel vertical migration by bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a thermally stratified reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eckmann, Madeleine; Dunham, Jason B.; Connor, Edward J.; Welch, Carmen A.

2018-01-01

Many species living in deeper lentic ecosystems exhibit daily movements that cycle through the water column, generally referred to as diel vertical migration (DVM). In this study, we applied bioenergetics modelling to evaluate growth as a hypothesis to explain DVM by bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a thermally stratified reservoir (Ross Lake, WA, USA) during the peak of thermal stratification in July and August. Bioenergetics model parameters were derived from observed vertical distributions of temperature, prey and bull trout. Field sampling confirmed that bull trout prey almost exclusively on recently introduced redside shiner (Richardsonius balteatus). Model predictions revealed that deeper (>25 m) DVMs commonly exhibited by bull trout during peak thermal stratification cannot be explained by maximising growth. Survival, another common explanation for DVM, may have influenced bull trout depth use, but observations suggest there may be additional drivers of DVM. We propose these deeper summertime excursions may be partly explained by an alternative hypothesis: the importance of colder water for gametogenesis. In Ross Lake, reliance of bull trout on warm water prey (redside shiner) for consumption and growth poses a potential trade-off with the need for colder water for gametogenesis.

Gamma–Gamma Absorption in the γ-ray Binary System PSR B1259-63/LS 2883

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sushch, Iurii; Van Soelen, Brian, E-mail: iurii.sushch@desy.de, E-mail: vansoelenb@ufs.ac.za

2017-03-10

The observed TeV light curve from the γ -ray binary PSR B1259-63/LS 2883 shows a decrease in the flux at periastron that has not been fully explained by emission mechanisms alone. This observed decrease can, however, be explained by γγ absorption due to the stellar and disk photons. We calculate the γγ absorption in PSR B1259-63/LS 2883 taking into account photons from both the circumstellar disk and star, assuming that the γ -rays originate at the position of the pulsar. The γγ absorption due to the circumstellar disk photons produces a ≈14% decrease in the flux, and there is amore » total decrease of ≈52% (>1 TeV) within a few days before periastron, accompanied by a hardening of the γ -ray photon index. While the γγ absorption alone is not sufficient to explain the full complexity of the H.E.S.S. γ -ray light curve, it results in a significant decrease in the predicted flux, which is coincident with the observed decrease. In addition, we have calculated an upper limit on the γγ absorption, assuming that the emission is produced at the apex of the bow shock. Future observations with CTA during the 2021 periastron passage may be able to confine the location of the emission based on the degree of γγ absorption, as well as measure the hardening of the spectrum around periastron.« less

Only 7% of the variation in feed efficiency in veal calves can be predicted from variation in feeding motivation, digestion, metabolism, immunology, and behavioral traits in early life.

PubMed

Gilbert, M S; van den Borne, J J G C; van Reenen, C G; Gerrits, W J J

2017-10-01

High interindividual variation in growth performance is commonly observed in veal calf production and appears to depend on milk replacer (MR) composition. Our first objective was to examine whether variation in growth performance in healthy veal calves can be predicted from early life characterization of these calves. Our second objective was to determine whether these predictions differ between calves that are fed a high- or low-lactose MR in later life. A total of 180 male Holstein-Friesian calves arrived at the facilities at 17 ± 3.4 d of age, and blood samples were collected before the first feeding. Subsequently, calves were characterized in the following 9 wk (period 1) using targeted challenges related to traits within each of 5 categories: feeding motivation, digestion, postabsorptive metabolism, behavior and stress, and immunology. In period 2 (wk 10-26), 130 calves were equally divided over 2 MR treatments: a control MR that contained lactose as the only carbohydrate source and a low-lactose MR in which 51% of the lactose was isocalorically replaced by glucose, fructose, and glycerol (2:1:2 ratio). Relations between early life characteristics and growth performance in later life were assessed in 117 clinically healthy calves. Average daily gain (ADG) in period 2 tended to be greater for control calves (1,292 ± 111 g/d) than for calves receiving the low-lactose MR (1,267 ± 103 g/d). Observations in period 1 were clustered per category using principal component analysis, and the resulting principal components were used to predict performance in period 2 using multiple regression procedures. Variation in observations in period 1 predicted 17% of variation in ADG in period 2. However, this was mainly related to variation in solid feed refusals. When ADG was adjusted to equal solid feed intake, only 7% of the variation in standardized ADG in period 2, in fact reflecting feed efficiency, could be explained by early life measurements. This indicates that >90% of the variation in feed efficiency in later life could not be explained by early life characterization of the calves. It is speculated that variation in health status explains a substantial portion of variation in feed efficiency in later life. Significant relations between fasting plasma glucose concentrations, fecal pH, drinking speed, and plasma natural antibodies in early life (i.e., not exposed to the lactose replacer) and feed efficiency in later life depended on MR composition. These measurements are therefore potential tools for screening calves in early life on their ability to cope with MR varying in lactose content. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

EEG oscillations during sleep and dream recall: state- or trait-like individual differences?

PubMed Central

Scarpelli, Serena; D’Atri, Aurora; Gorgoni, Maurizio; Ferrara, Michele; De Gennaro, Luigi

2015-01-01

Dreaming represents a peculiar form of cognitive activity during sleep. On the basis of the well-known relationship between sleep and memory, there has been a growing interest in the predictive role of human brain activity during sleep on dream recall. Neuroimaging studies indicate that rapid eye movement (REM) sleep is characterized by limbic activation and prefrontal cortex deactivation. This pattern could explain the presence of emotional contents in dream reports. Furthermore, the morphoanatomical measures of amygdala and hippocampus predict some features of dream contents (bizarreness, vividness, and emotional load). More relevant for a general view of dreaming mechanisms, empirical data from neuropsychological and electroencephalographic (EEG) studies support the hypothesis that there is a sort of continuity between the neurophysiological mechanisms of encoding and retrieval of episodic memories across sleep and wakefulness. A notable overlap between the electrophysiological mechanisms underlying emotional memory formation and some peculiar EEG features of REM sleep has been suggested. In particular, theta (5–8 Hz) EEG oscillations on frontal regions in the pre-awakening sleep are predictive of dream recall, which parallels the predictive relation during wakefulness between theta activity and successful retrieval of episodic memory. Although some observations support an interpretation more in terms of an intraindividual than interindividual mechanism, the existing empirical evidence still precludes from definitely disentangling if this relation is explained by state- or trait-like differences. PMID:25999908

Root traits explain observed tundra vegetation nitrogen uptake patterns: Implications for trait-based land models: Tundra N Uptake Model-Data Comparison

DOE PAGES

Zhu, Qing; Iversen, Colleen M.; Riley, William J.; ...

2016-12-23

Ongoing climate warming will likely perturb vertical distributions of nitrogen availability in tundra soils through enhancing nitrogen mineralization and releasing previously inaccessible nitrogen from frozen permafrost soil. But, arctic tundra responses to such changes are uncertain, because of a lack of vertically explicit nitrogen tracer experiments and untested hypotheses of root nitrogen uptake under the stress of microbial competition implemented in land models. We conducted a vertically explicit 15N tracer experiment for three dominant tundra species to quantify plant N uptake profiles. Then we applied a nutrient competition model (N-COM), which is being integrated into the ACME Land Model, tomore » explain the observations. Observations using an 15N tracer showed that plant N uptake profiles were not consistently related to root biomass density profiles, which challenges the prevailing hypothesis that root density always exerts first-order control on N uptake. By considering essential root traits (e.g., biomass distribution and nutrient uptake kinetics) with an appropriate plant-microbe nutrient competition framework, our model reasonably reproduced the observed patterns of plant N uptake. Additionally, we show that previously applied nutrient competition hypotheses in Earth System Land Models fail to explain the diverse plant N uptake profiles we observed. These results cast doubt on current climate-scale model predictions of arctic plant responses to elevated nitrogen supply under a changing climate and highlight the importance of considering essential root traits in large-scale land models. Finally, we provided suggestions and a short synthesis of data availability for future trait-based land model development.« less

Root traits explain observed tundra vegetation nitrogen uptake patterns: Implications for trait-based land models: Tundra N Uptake Model-Data Comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Qing; Iversen, Colleen M.; Riley, William J.

Ongoing climate warming will likely perturb vertical distributions of nitrogen availability in tundra soils through enhancing nitrogen mineralization and releasing previously inaccessible nitrogen from frozen permafrost soil. But, arctic tundra responses to such changes are uncertain, because of a lack of vertically explicit nitrogen tracer experiments and untested hypotheses of root nitrogen uptake under the stress of microbial competition implemented in land models. We conducted a vertically explicit 15N tracer experiment for three dominant tundra species to quantify plant N uptake profiles. Then we applied a nutrient competition model (N-COM), which is being integrated into the ACME Land Model, tomore » explain the observations. Observations using an 15N tracer showed that plant N uptake profiles were not consistently related to root biomass density profiles, which challenges the prevailing hypothesis that root density always exerts first-order control on N uptake. By considering essential root traits (e.g., biomass distribution and nutrient uptake kinetics) with an appropriate plant-microbe nutrient competition framework, our model reasonably reproduced the observed patterns of plant N uptake. Additionally, we show that previously applied nutrient competition hypotheses in Earth System Land Models fail to explain the diverse plant N uptake profiles we observed. These results cast doubt on current climate-scale model predictions of arctic plant responses to elevated nitrogen supply under a changing climate and highlight the importance of considering essential root traits in large-scale land models. Finally, we provided suggestions and a short synthesis of data availability for future trait-based land model development.« less

Hot chemistry in the diffuse medium: spectral signature in the H2 rotational lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verstraete, L.; Falgarone, E.; Pineau des Forets, G.; Flower, D.; Puget, J. L.

1999-03-01

Most of the diffuse interstellar medium is cold, but it must harbor pockets of hot gas to explain the large observed abundances of molecules like CH+ and HCO+. Because they dissipate locally large amounts of kinetic energy, MHD shocks and coherent vortices in turbulence can drive endothermic chemical reactions or reactions with large activation barriers. We predict the spectroscopic signatures in the H2 rotational lines of MHD shocks and vortices and compare them to those observed with the ISO-SWS along a line of sight through the Galaxy which samples 20 magnitudes of mostly diffuse gas.

Grayness-dependent emission of dispersive waves from dark solitons in optical fibers.

PubMed

Marest, T; Arabí, C Mas; Conforti, M; Mussot, A; Milián, C; Skryabin, D V; Kudlinski, A

2018-04-01

We report the experimental observation of dispersive wave emission from gray solitons propagating in the normal dispersion region of an optical fiber. Besides observing for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, the emission of a dispersive wave from an isolated dark soliton, we show that the dispersive wave frequency and amplitude strongly depend on soliton grayness. This process can be explained by the higher-order dispersion contribution into the phase-matching condition and the grayness of the soliton. Numerical simulations and theoretical predictions are in good agreement with the experiments.

Chemical kinetics of homogeneous atmospheric oxidation of sulfur dioxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sander, S. P.; Seinfeld, J. H.

1976-01-01

A systematic evaluation of known homogeneous SO2 reactions which might be important in air pollution chemistry is carried out. A mechanism is developed to represent the chemistry of NOx/hydrocarbon/SO2 systems, and the mechanism is used to analyze available experimental data appropriate for quantitative analysis of SO2 oxidation kinetics. Detailed comparisons of observed and predicted concentration behavior are presented. In all cases, observed SO2 oxidation rates cannot be explained solely on the basis of those SO2 reactions for which rate constants have been measured. The role of ozone-olefin reactions in SO2 oxidation is elucidated.

Gas liquid flow at microgravity conditions - Flow patterns and their transitions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dukler, A. E.; Fabre, J. A.; Mcquillen, J. B.; Vernon, R.

1987-01-01

The prediction of flow patterns during gas-liquid flow in conduits is central to the modern approach for modeling two phase flow and heat transfer. The mechanisms of transition are reasonably well understood for flow in pipes on earth where it has been shown that body forces largely control the behavior observed. This work explores the patterns which exist under conditions of microgravity when these body forces are suppressed. Data are presented which were obtained for air-water flow in tubes during drop tower experiments and Learjet trajectories. Preliminary models to explain the observed flow pattern map are evolved.

Influence of cognition and symptoms of schizophrenia on IADL performance.

PubMed

Lipskaya, Lena; Jarus, Tal; Kotler, Moshe

2011-09-01

People with schizophrenia experience difficulties with instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), which are required for independent living. Yet, factors that influence IADL performance are still poorly understood. Identification of such factors will contribute to the rehabilitation process and recovery. The present study aimed to examine the influence of cognitive abilities, schizophrenia symptoms, and demographic variables on IADL functioning during acute hospital admission. The participants were 81 adults with DSM-IV chronic schizophrenia. They were assessed on the Revised Observed Tasks of Daily Living (OTDL-R), the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), the Neurobehavioral Cognitive Status Examination (Cognistat), and the Kitchen Task Assessment (KTA) at acute hospitalization. The prediction model of IADL performance at this time consists of executive functioning (explained 21% of variance), memory and abstract thinking (explained 13.5%), negative symptoms (explained 13%), age of illness onset and years of education (explained 8%). The total explained variance is 53.5%. These results provide evidence-based guidelines for the evaluation process in inpatient settings. Such guidelines are important since planning of intervention processes and appropriate community integration programs often occurs during acute hospitalization, while the structured nature of inpatient settings limits natural variability in occupational performance.

EXTREMELY METAL-POOR STARS AND A HIERARCHICAL CHEMICAL EVOLUTION MODEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Komiya, Yutaka

2011-07-20

Early phases of the chemical evolution of the Galaxy and formation history of extremely metal-poor (EMP) stars are investigated using hierarchical galaxy formation models. We build a merger tree of the Galaxy according to the extended Press-Schechter theory. We follow the chemical evolution along the tree and compare the model results to the metallicity distribution function and abundance ratio distribution of the Milky Way halo. We adopt three different initial mass functions (IMFs). In a previous study, we argued that the typical mass, M{sub md}, of EMP stars should be high, M{sub md} {approx} 10 M{sub sun}, based on studiesmore » of binary origin carbon-rich EMP stars. In this study, we show that only the high-mass IMF can explain an observed small number of EMP stars. For relative element abundances, the high-mass IMF and the Salpeter IMF predict similar distributions. We also investigate dependence on nucleosynthetic yields of supernovae (SNe). The theoretical SN yields by Kobayashi et al. and Chieffi and Limongi show reasonable agreement with observations for {alpha}-elements. Our model predicts a significant scatter of element abundances at [Fe/H] < -3. We adopted the stellar yields derived in the work of Francois et al., which produce the best agreement between the observational data and the one-zone chemical evolution model. Their yields well reproduce a trend of the averaged abundances of EMP stars but predict much larger scatter than do the observations. The model with hypernovae predicts Zn abundance, in agreement with the observations, but other models predict lower [Zn/Fe]. Ejecta from the hypernovae with large explosion energy is mixed in large mass and decreases the scatter of the element abundances.« less

THE ORIGIN OF THE HOT GAS IN THE GALACTIC HALO: TESTING GALACTIC FOUNTAIN MODELS' X-RAY EMISSION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henley, David B.; Shelton, Robin L.; Kwak, Kyujin

2015-02-20

We test the X-ray emission predictions of galactic fountain models against XMM-Newton measurements of the emission from the Milky Way's hot halo. These measurements are from 110 sight lines, spanning the full range of Galactic longitudes. We find that a magnetohydrodynamical simulation of a supernova-driven interstellar medium, which features a flow of hot gas from the disk to the halo, reproduces the temperature but significantly underpredicts the 0.5-2.0 keV surface brightness of the halo (by two orders of magnitude, if we compare the median predicted and observed values). This is true for versions of the model with and without anmore » interstellar magnetic field. We consider different reasons for the discrepancy between the model predictions and the observations. We find that taking into account overionization in cooled halo plasma, which could in principle boost the predicted X-ray emission, is unlikely in practice to bring the predictions in line with the observations. We also find that including thermal conduction, which would tend to increase the surface brightnesses of interfaces between hot and cold gas, would not overcome the surface brightness shortfall. However, charge exchange emission from such interfaces, not included in the current model, may be significant. The faintness of the model may also be due to the lack of cosmic ray driving, meaning that the model may underestimate the amount of material transported from the disk to the halo. In addition, an extended hot halo of accreted material may be important, by supplying hot electrons that could boost the emission of the material driven out from the disk. Additional model predictions are needed to test the relative importance of these processes in explaining the observed halo emission.« less

The Origin of the Hot Gas in the Galactic Halo: Testing Galactic Fountain Models' X-Ray Emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henley, David B.; Shelton, Robin L.; Kwak, Kyujin; Hill, Alex S.; Mac Low, Mordecai-Mark

2015-02-01

We test the X-ray emission predictions of galactic fountain models against XMM-Newton measurements of the emission from the Milky Way's hot halo. These measurements are from 110 sight lines, spanning the full range of Galactic longitudes. We find that a magnetohydrodynamical simulation of a supernova-driven interstellar medium, which features a flow of hot gas from the disk to the halo, reproduces the temperature but significantly underpredicts the 0.5-2.0 keV surface brightness of the halo (by two orders of magnitude, if we compare the median predicted and observed values). This is true for versions of the model with and without an interstellar magnetic field. We consider different reasons for the discrepancy between the model predictions and the observations. We find that taking into account overionization in cooled halo plasma, which could in principle boost the predicted X-ray emission, is unlikely in practice to bring the predictions in line with the observations. We also find that including thermal conduction, which would tend to increase the surface brightnesses of interfaces between hot and cold gas, would not overcome the surface brightness shortfall. However, charge exchange emission from such interfaces, not included in the current model, may be significant. The faintness of the model may also be due to the lack of cosmic ray driving, meaning that the model may underestimate the amount of material transported from the disk to the halo. In addition, an extended hot halo of accreted material may be important, by supplying hot electrons that could boost the emission of the material driven out from the disk. Additional model predictions are needed to test the relative importance of these processes in explaining the observed halo emission.

The Lore of the Hair

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yunes, Nicolas; Yagi, Kent; Stein, Leo

2016-03-01

Stars can be hairy beasts, especially in theories that go beyond Einstein's. In the latter, a scalar field can be sourced and anchored to a neutron star, and if the later is in a binary system, the scalar field will emit dipole radiation. This radiation removes energy from the binary, forcing the orbit to adiabatically decay much more rapidly than due to the emission of gravitational waves as predicted in General Relativity. The detailed radio observation of binary pulsars has constrained the orbital decay of compact binaries stringently, so much so that theories that predict neutron stars with scalar hair are believed to be essentially ruled out. In this talk I will explain why this ``lore'' is actually incorrect, providing a counter-example in which scalar hair is sourced by neutron stars, yet dipole radiation is absent. I will then describe what binary systems need to be observed to constrain such theories with future astrophysical observations. I acknowledge support from NSF CAREER Grant PHY-1250636.

Cometary compact H II regions are stellar-wind bow shocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Buren, Dave; Mac Low, Mordecai-Mark; Wood, Douglas O. S.; Churchwell, ED

1990-01-01

Comet-shaped H II regions, like G34.3 + 0.2, are easily explained as bow shocks created by wind-blowing massive stars moving supersonically through molecular clouds. The required velocities of the stars through dense clumps are less than about 10 km/s, comparable to the velocity dispersion of stars in OB associations. An analytic model of bow shocks matches the gross characteristics seen in the radio continuum and the velocity structure inferred from hydrogen recombination and molecular line observations. The champagne flow model cannot account for these structures. VLBI observations of masers associated with the shells of cometary compact H II regions should reveal tailward proper motions predominantly parallel to the shell, rather than perpendicular. It is predicted that over a decade baseline, high signal-to-noise VLA observations of this class of objects will show headward pattern motion in the direction of the symmetry axis, but not expansion. Finally, shock-generated and coronal infrared lines are also predicted.

The constitution of the atmospheric layers and the extreme ultraviolet spectrum of hot hydrogen-rich white dwarfs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vennes, Stephane

1992-01-01

An analysis is presented of the atmospheric properties of hot, H-rich, DA white dwarfs that is based on optical, UV, and X-ray observations aimed at predicting detailed spectral properties of these stars in the range 80-800 A. The divergences between observations from a sample of 15 hot DA white dwarfs emitting in the EUV/soft X-ray range and pure H synthetic spectra calculated from a grid of model atmospheres characterized by Teff and g are examined. Seven out of 15 DA stars are found to consistently exhibit pure hydrogen atmospheres, the remaining seven stars showing inconsistency between FUV and EUV/soft X-ray data that can be explained by the presence of trace EUV/soft X-ray absorbers. Synthetic data are computed assuming two other possible chemical structures: photospheric traces of radiatively levitated heavy elements and a stratified hydrogen/helium distribution. Predictions about forthcoming medium-resolution observations of the EUV spectrum of selected hot H-rich white dwarfs are made.

WASP-12b: Orbital Decay or Apsidal Precession?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winn, Joshua; Knutson, Heather

2018-05-01

Over the last decade, the interval between the transits of the hot Jupiter WASP-12b has been steadily shrinking by 29 milliseconds per year. This may represent the first direct detection of tidal orbital decay, a phenomenon that has long been predicted to occur for hot Jupiters and that features in many theories to explain their properties. Another viable explanation for the apparent period decrease is that the orbit is slightly eccentric and apsidally precessing, in which case the data could be used to measure the planet's Love number. This would be a rare and precious constraint on its interior density distribution. The best way to tell the difference is to combine new Spitzer observations of secondary eclipses with ongoing ground-based transit observations. Orbital decay predicts that the transit and eclipse timing residuals will have the same sign, while apsidal precession would produce anti-correlated residuals. We propose to observe 4 eclipses with Spitzer during Cycle 14, which will allow the two hypotheses to be distinguished with high confidence.

Analysis of the backscatter spectrum in an ionospheric modification experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, H.; Crawford, F. W.; Harker, K. J.

1974-01-01

Predictions of the backscatter spectrum, including effects of ionospheric inhomogeneity, are compared with experimental observations of incoherent backscatter from an artificially heated region. Our calculations show that the strongest backscatter echo received is not from the reflection level, but from a region some distance below. Certain asymmetrical features are explained of the up-shifted and down-shifted plasma lines in the backscatter spectrum, and the several satellite peaks accompanying them.

Preview of Our Changing Planet. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2008

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-04-01

reduce the uncertainty in predictions of the global and regional water cycle and surface climate. Sunlight not reflected back to space provides the...research elements include atmospheric composition, climate variability and change, the global water cycle , land-use and land-cover change, the global...entire planet, and researchers with the ability to better explain observed changes in the climate system. Global Water Cycle – Research associated with

Geochemical Constraints on Core Formation in the Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, John H.; Drake, Michael J.

1986-01-01

New experimental data on the partitioning of siderophile and chalcophile elements among metallic and silicate phases may be used to constrain hypotheses of core formation in the Earth. Three current hypotheses can explain gross features of mantle geochemistry, but none predicts siderophile and chalcophile element abundances to within a factor of two of observed values. Either our understanding of metal-silicate interactions and/or our understanding of the early Earth requires revision.

Resolving the inconsistency between the ice giants and cometary D/H ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali-Dib, M.; Mousis, O.; Petit, J.-M.; Lunine, J. I.

2014-12-01

The properties and chemical compositions of giant planets strongly depend on their formation locations. The formation mechanisms of the ice giants Uranus and Neptune, and their elemental and isotopic compositions, have long been debated. The density of solids in the outer protosolar nebula is too low to explain their formation within a timescale consistent with the presence of the gaseous protoplanetary disk, and spectroscopic observations show that both planets are highly enriched in carbon, very poor in nitrogen, and the ices from which they originally formed might had deuterium-to-hydrogen ratios lower than the predicted cometary value, unexplained properties observed in no other planets. Here we show that all these properties can be explained naturally if Uranus and Neptune both formed at the carbon monoxide iceline location, namely the region where this gas condensates in the protosolar nebula. This outer region of the protosolar nebula intrinsically has enough surface density to form both planets from carbon-rich solids but nitrogen-depleted gas, in abundances consistent with their observed values. Water rich interiors originating mostly from transformed CO ices reconcile the D/H value observed in Uranus and Neptune with the cometary value.

A new theory for X-ray diffraction

PubMed Central

Fewster, Paul F.

2014-01-01

This article proposes a new theory of X-ray scattering that has particular relevance to powder diffraction. The underlying concept of this theory is that the scattering from a crystal or crystallite is distributed throughout space: this leads to the effect that enhanced scatter can be observed at the ‘Bragg position’ even if the ‘Bragg condition’ is not satisfied. The scatter from a single crystal or crystallite, in any fixed orientation, has the fascinating property of contributing simultaneously to many ‘Bragg positions’. It also explains why diffraction peaks are obtained from samples with very few crystallites, which cannot be explained with the conventional theory. The intensity ratios for an Si powder sample are predicted with greater accuracy and the temperature factors are more realistic. Another consequence is that this new theory predicts a reliability in the intensity measurements which agrees much more closely with experimental observations compared to conventional theory that is based on ‘Bragg-type’ scatter. The role of dynamical effects (extinction etc.) is discussed and how they are suppressed with diffuse scattering. An alternative explanation for the Lorentz factor is presented that is more general and based on the capture volume in diffraction space. This theory, when applied to the scattering from powders, will evaluate the full scattering profile, including peak widths and the ‘background’. The theory should provide an increased understanding of the reliability of powder diffraction measurements, and may also have wider implications for the analysis of powder diffraction data, by increasing the accuracy of intensities predicted from structural models. PMID:24815975

Key seabird areas in southern New England identified using a community occupancy model

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connell, Allan F.; Flanders, Nicholas P.; Gardner, Beth; Winiarski, Kristopher J.; Paton, Peter W. C.; Allison, Taber

2015-01-01

Seabirds are of conservation concern, and as new potential risks to seabirds are arising, the need to provide unbiased estimates of species’ distributions is growing. We applied community occupancy models to detection/non-detection data collected from repeated aerial strip-transect surveys conducted in 2 large study plots off southern New England, USA; one off the coast of Rhode Island and the other in Nantucket Sound. A total of 17 seabird species were observed at least once in each study plot. We found that detection varied by survey date and effort for most species and the average detection probability across species was less than 0.4. We estimated the influence of water depth, sea surface temperature, and sea surface chl a concentration on species-specific occupancy. Diving species showed large differences between the 2 study plots in their predicted winter distributions, which were largely explained by water depth acting as a stronger predictor of occupancy in Rhode Island than in Nantucket Sound. Conversely, similarities between the 2 study plots in predicted winter distributions of surface-feeding species were explained by sea surface temperature or chlorophyll a concentration acting as predictors of these species’ occupancy in both study plots. We predicted the number of species at each site using the observed data in order to detect ‘hot-spots’ of seabird diversity and use in the 2 study plots. These results provide new information on detection of species, areas of use, and relationships with environmental variables that will be valuable for biologists and planners interested in seabird conservation in the region.

Seasonal and diurnal variability of the meteor flux at high latitudes observed using PFISR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparks, J. J.; Janches, D.; Nicolls, M. J.; Heinselman, C. J.

2009-05-01

We report in this and a companion paper [Fentzke, J.T., Janches, D., Sparks, J.J., 2008. Latitudinal and seasonal variability of the micrometeor input function: A study using model predictions and observations from Arecibo and PFISR. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, this issue, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2008.07.015] a complete seasonal study of the micrometeor input function (MIF) at high latitudes using meteor head-echo radar observations performed with the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR). This flux is responsible for a number of atmospheric phenomena; for example, it could be the source of meteoric smoke that is thought to act as condensation nuclei in the formation of ice particles in the polar mesosphere. The observations presented here were performed for full 24-h periods near the summer and winter solstices and spring and autumn equinoxes, times at which the seasonal variability of the MIF is predicted to be large at high latitudes [Janches, D., Heinselman, C.J., Chau, J.L., Chandran, A., Woodman, R., 2006. Modeling of the micrometeor input function in the upper atmosphere observed by High Power and Large Aperture Radars, JGR, 11, A07317, doi:10.1029/2006JA011628]. Precise altitude and radar instantaneous line-of-sight (radial) Doppler velocity information are obtained for each of the hundreds of events detected every day. We show that meteor rates, altitude, and radial velocity distributions have a large seasonal dependence. This seasonal variability can be explained by a change in the relative location of the meteoroid sources with respect to the observer. Our results show that the meteor flux into the upper atmosphere is strongly anisotropic and its characteristics must be accounted for when including this flux into models attempting to explain related aeronomical phenomena. In addition, the measured acceleration and received signal strength distribution do not seem to depend on season; which may suggest that these observed quantities do not have a strong dependence on entry angle.

Panchromatic Observations of GRB 110205A and Other GRB Optical Prompt Observations Obtained by ROTSE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Weikang; with a larger Collaboration

2011-09-01

The leading radiation mechanisms for gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), as predicted by the standard GRB fireball model, include synchrotron radiation, synchrotron self-Compton (SSC), and inverse Compton scattering from thermal photons. Panchromatic observations during GRB prompt emission are important to distinguish the mechanisms. GRB 110205A, triggered by Swift, is also detected by Suzaku, ROTSE-IIIb and BOOTES telescopes when the GRB is still radiating gamma-rays. These panchromatic observations, covering 6 orders of energy range from 1 eV to 5 MeV, will be presented. We clearly discover an interesting two-break energy spectrum for the first time, roughly consistent with the synchrotron spectrum predicted by the standard GRB fireball model. The two break energies can be explained as νc, the synchrotron cooling frequency, and νm, the synchrotron typical frequency. With a sample of GRBs with optical prompt detections from ROTSE observations, one can also constrain the self-absorption frequency, νa. These detailed prompt observations are important to discriminate different mechanisms and thus lead us to a better and deeper understanding of the GRB fireball model. This research is supported by the NASA grant NNX08AV63G and the NSF grant PHY-0801007.

Electron holes observed in the Moon Plasma Wake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchinson, I. H.; Malaspina, D.; Zhou, C.

2017-10-01

Electrostatic instabilities are predicted in the magnetized wake of plasma flowing past a non-magnetic absorbing object such as a probe or the moon. Analysis of the data from the Artemis satellites, now orbiting the moon at distances ten moon radii and less, shows very clear evidence of fast-moving isolated solitary potential structures causing bipolar electric field excursions as they pass the satellite's probes. These structures have all the hallmarks of electron holes: BGK solitons typically a few Debye-lengths in size, self-sustaining by a deficit of phase-space density on trapped orbits. Electron holes are now observed to be widespread in space plasmas. They have been observed in PIC simulations of the moon wake to be the non-linear consequence of the predicted electron instabilities. Simulations document hole prevalence, speed, length, and depth; and theory can explain many of these features from kinetic analysis. The solar wind wake is certainly the cause of the overwhelming majority of the holes observed by Artemis, because we observe almost all holes to be in or very near to the wake. We compare theory and simulation of the hole generation, lifetime, and transport mechanisms with observations. Work partially supported by NASA Grant NNX16AG82G.

Potential role of sea spray generation in the atmospheric transport of perfluorocarboxylic acids.

PubMed

Webster, Eva; Ellis, David A

2010-08-01

The observed environmental concentrations of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and its conjugate base (PFO) in remote regions such as the Arctic have been primarily ascribed to the atmospheric transport and degradation of fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs) and to direct PFO transport in ocean currents. These mechanisms are each capable of only partially explaining observations. Transport within marine aerosols has been proposed and may explain transport over short distances but will contribute little over longer distances. However, PFO(A) has been shown to have a very short half-life in aqueous aerosols and thus sea spray was proposed as a mechanism for the generation of PFOA in the gas phase from PFO in a water body. Using the observed PFO concentrations in oceans of the Northern Hemisphere and estimated spray generation rates, this mechanism is shown to have the potential for contributing large amounts of PFOA to the atmosphere and may therefore contribute significantly to the concentrations observed in remote locations. Specifically, the rate of PFOA release into the gas phase from oceans in the Northern Hemisphere is calculated to be potentially comparable to global stack emissions to the atmosphere. The subsequent potential for atmospheric degradation of PFOA and its global warming potential are considered. Observed isomeric ratios and predicted atmospheric concentrations due to FTOH degradation are used to elucidate the likely relative importance of transport pathways. It is concluded that gas phase PFOA released from oceans may help to explain observed concentrations in remote regions. The model calculations performed in the present study strongly suggest that oceanic aerosol and gas phase field monitoring is of vital importance to obtain a complete understanding of the global dissemination of PFCAs. Copyright 2010 SETAC

Modeling of SAR signatures of shallow water ocean topography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shuchman, R. A.; Kozma, A.; Kasischke, E. S.; Lyzenga, D. R.

1984-01-01

A hydrodynamic/electromagnetic model was developed to explain and quantify the relationship between the SEASAT synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observed signatures and the bottom topography of the ocean in the English Channel region of the North Sea. The model uses environmental data and radar system parameters as inputs and predicts SAR-observed backscatter changes over topographic changes in the ocean floor. The model results compare favorably with the actual SEASAT SAR observed backscatter values. The developed model is valid for only relatively shallow water areas (i.e., less than 50 meters in depth) and suggests that for bottom features to be visible on SAR imagery, a moderate to high velocity current and a moderate wind must be present.

The Fundamental Structure of Coronal Loops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winebarger, Amy; Warren, Harry; Cirtain, Jonathan; Kobayashi, Ken; Korreck, Kelly; Golub, Leon; Kuzin, Sergey; Walsh, Robert; DePontieu, Bart; Title, Alan;

Why Good Is More Alike Than Bad: Processing Implications.

PubMed

Alves, Hans; Koch, Alex; Unkelbach, Christian

2017-02-01

Humans process positive information and negative information differently. These valence asymmetries in processing are often summarized under the observation that 'bad is stronger than good', meaning that negative information has stronger psychological impact (e.g., in feedback, learning, or social interactions). This stronger impact is usually attributed to people's affective or motivational reactions to evaluative information. We present an alternative interpretation of valence asymmetries based on the observation that positive information is more similar than negative information. We explain this higher similarity based on the non-extremity of positive attributes, discuss how it accounts for observable valence asymmetries in cognitive processing, and show how it predicts hitherto undiscovered phenomena. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anomalously high intercombination line ratios in symbiotic stars - Extreme Bowen pumping?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kastner, S. O.; Bhatia, A. K.; Feibelman, W. A.

1989-01-01

International Ultraviolet Explorer observations of the ratio of the O III intercombination lines near 1660 A are assembled, showing that the observed ratios in symbiotic stars are significantly higher than the theoretically predicted optically thin limit of 2.5. The presence of an enhancing physical process is thereby indicated. It is suggested that Bowen pumping of the lower level of the 1666.2 A line in an 'external saturation' limit, coupled with appreciable optical depth, could logically explain the high ratios. Some tentative evidence for this is presented and the relevance of far-infrared observations of the O III 51.8 and 88.3 micron lines in symbiotic sources is emphasized.

Modeling the formation and aging of secondary organic aerosols in Los Angeles during CalNex 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, P. L.; Carlton, A. G.; Baker, K. R.; Ahmadov, R.; Washenfelder, R. A.; Alvarez, S.; Rappenglück, B.; Gilman, J. B.; Kuster, W. C.; de Gouw, J. A.; Zotter, P.; Prévôt, A. S. H.; Szidat, S.; Kleindienst, T. E.; Offenberg, J. H.; Jimenez, J. L.

2014-12-01

Four different parameterizations for the formation and evolution of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) are evaluated using a 0-D box model representing the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region during the CalNex 2010 field campaign. We constrain the model predictions with measurements from several platforms and compare predictions with particle and gas-phase observations from the CalNex Pasadena ground site. That site provides a unique opportunity to study aerosol formation close to anthropogenic emission sources with limited recirculation. The model SOA formed only from the oxidation of VOCs (V-SOA) is insufficient to explain the observed SOA concentrations, even when using SOA parameterizations with multi-generation oxidation that produce much higher yields than have been observed in chamber experiments, or when increasing yields to their upper limit estimates accounting for recently reported losses of vapors to chamber walls. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model (version 5.0.1) provides excellent predictions of secondary inorganic particle species but underestimates the observed SOA mass by a factor of 25 when an older VOC-only parameterization is used, which is consistent with many previous model-measurement comparisons for pre-2007 anthropogenic SOA modules in urban areas. Including SOA from primary semi-volatile and intermediate volatility organic compounds (P-S/IVOCs) following the parameterizations of Robinson et al. (2007), Grieshop et al. (2009), or Pye and Seinfeld (2010) improves model/measurement agreement for mass concentration. When comparing the three parameterizations, the Grieshop et al. (2009) parameterization more accurately reproduces both the SOA mass concentration and oxygen-to-carbon ratio inside the urban area. Our results strongly suggest that other precursors besides VOCs, such as P-S/IVOCs, are needed to explain the observed SOA concentrations in Pasadena. All the parameterizations over-predict urban SOA formation at long photochemical ages (≈ 3 days) compared to observations from multiple sites, which can lead to problems in regional and global modeling. Among the explicitly modeled VOCs, the precursor compounds that contribute the greatest SOA mass are methylbenzenes. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are less important precursors and contribute less than 4% of the SOA mass. The amounts of SOA mass from diesel vehicles, gasoline vehicles, and cooking emissions are estimated to be 16-27, 35-61, and 19-35%, respectively, depending on the parameterization used, which is consistent with the observed fossil fraction of urban SOA, 71 (±3) %. In-basin biogenic VOCs are predicted to contribute only a few percent to SOA. A regional SOA background of approximately 2.1 μg m-3 is also present due to the long distance transport of highly aged OA. The percentage of SOA from diesel vehicle emissions is the same, within the estimated uncertainty, as reported in previous work that analyzed the weekly cycles in OA concentrations (Bahreini et al., 2012; Hayes et al., 2013). However, the modeling work presented here suggests a strong anthropogenic source of modern carbon in SOA, due to cooking emissions, which was not accounted for in those previous studies. Lastly, this work adapts a simple two-parameter model to predict SOA concentration and O/C from urban emissions. This model successfully predicts SOA concentration, and the optimal parameter combination is very similar to that found for Mexico City. This approach provides a computationally inexpensive method for predicting urban SOA in global and climate models. We estimate pollution SOA to account for 26 Tg yr-1 of SOA globally, or 17% of global SOA, 1/3 of which is likely to be non-fossil.

Assessment of terrestrial water contributions to polar motion from GRACE and hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, S. G.; Hassan, A. A.; Feng, G. P.

2012-12-01

The hydrological contribution to polar motion is a major challenge in explaining the observed geodetic residual of non-atmospheric and non-oceanic excitations since hydrological models have limited input of comprehensive global direct observations. Although global terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provides a new opportunity to study the hydrological excitation of polar motion, the GRACE gridded data are subject to the post-processing de-striping algorithm, spatial gridded mapping and filter smoothing effects as well as aliasing errors. In this paper, the hydrological contributions to polar motion are investigated and evaluated at seasonal and intra-seasonal time scales using the recovered degree-2 harmonic coefficients from all GRACE spherical harmonic coefficients and hydrological models data with the same filter smoothing and recovering methods, including the Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (GLDAS) model, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) model, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis products and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational model (opECMWF). It is shown that GRACE is better in explaining the geodetic residual of non-atmospheric and non-oceanic polar motion excitations at the annual period, while the models give worse estimates with a larger phase shift or amplitude bias. At the semi-annual period, the GRACE estimates are also generally closer to the geodetic residual, but with some biases in phase or amplitude due mainly to some aliasing errors at near semi-annual period from geophysical models. For periods less than 1-year, the hydrological models and GRACE are generally worse in explaining the intraseasonal polar motion excitations.

Progression of coronary artery calcification seems to be inevitable, but predictable - results of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) study.

PubMed

Erbel, Raimund; Lehmann, Nils; Churzidse, Sofia; Rauwolf, Michael; Mahabadi, Amir A; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Moebus, Susanne; Bauer, Marcus; Kälsch, Hagen; Budde, Thomas; Montag, Michael; Schmermund, Axel; Stang, Andreas; Führer-Sakel, Dagmar; Weimar, Christian; Roggenbuck, Ulla; Dragano, Nico; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz

2014-11-07

Coronary artery calcification (CAC), as a sign of atherosclerosis, can be detected and progression quantified using computed tomography (CT). We develop a tool for predicting CAC progression. In 3481 participants (45-74 years, 53.1% women) CAC percentiles at baseline (CACb) and after five years (CAC₅y) were evaluated, demonstrating progression along gender-specific percentiles, which showed exponentially shaped age-dependence. Using quantile regression on the log-scale (log(CACb+1)) we developed a tool to individually predict CAC₅y, and compared to observed CAC₅y. The difference between observed and predicted CAC₅y (log-scale, mean±SD) was 0.08±1.11 and 0.06±1.29 in men and women. Agreement reached a kappa-value of 0.746 (95% confidence interval: 0.732-0.760) and concordance correlation (log-scale) of 0.886 (0.879-0.893). Explained variance of observed by predicted log(CAC₅y+1) was 80.1% and 72.0% in men and women, and 81.0 and 73.6% including baseline risk factors. Evaluating the tool in 1940 individuals with CACb>0 and CACb<400 at baseline, of whom 242 (12.5%) developed CAC₅y>400, yielded a sensitivity of 59.5%, specificity 96.1%, (+) and (-) predictive values of 68.3% and 94.3%. A pre-defined acceptance range around predicted CAC₅y contained 68.1% of observed CAC₅y; only 20% were expected by chance. Age, blood pressure, lipid-lowering medication, diabetes, and smoking contributed to progression above the acceptance range in men and, excepting age, in women. CAC nearly inevitably progresses with limited influence of cardiovascular risk factors. This allowed the development of a mathematical tool for prediction of individual CAC progression, enabling anticipation of the age when CAC thresholds of high risk are reached. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

On the missing second generation AGB stars in NGC 6752

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassisi, Santi; Salaris, Maurizio; Pietrinferni, Adriano; Vink, Jorick S.; Monelli, Matteo

2014-11-01

In recent years the view of Galactic globular clusters as simple stellar populations has changed dramatically, it is now thought that basically all globular clusters host multiple stellar populations, each with its own chemical abundance pattern and colour-magnitude diagram sequence. Recent spectroscopic observations of asymptotic giant branch stars in the globular cluster NGC 6752 have disclosed a low [Na/Fe] abundance for the whole sample, suggesting that they are all first generation stars, and that all second generation stars fail to reach the AGB in this cluster. A scenario proposed to explain these observations invokes strong mass loss in second generation horizontal branch stars - all located at the hot side of the blue and extended horizontal branch of this cluster - possibly induced by the metal enhancement associated to radiative levitation. This enhanced mass loss would prevent second generation stars from reaching the asymptotic giant branch phase, thus explaining at the same time the low value of the ratio between horizontal branch and asymptotic giant branch stars (the R2 parameter) observed in NGC 6752. We have critically discussed this mass-loss scenario, finding that the required mass-loss rates are of the order of 10-9 M⊙ yr-1, significantly higher than current theoretical and empirical constraints. By making use of synthetic horizontal branch simulations, we demonstrate that our modelling correctly predicts the R2 parameter for NGC 6752, without the need to invoke very efficient mass loss during the core He-burning stage. As a test of our stellar models we show that we can reproduce the observed value of R2 for both M 3, a cluster of approximately the same metallicity and with a redder horizontal branch morphology, and M 13, a cluster with a horizontal branch very similar to NGC 6752. However, our simulations for the NGC 6752 horizontal branch predict however the presence of a significant fraction of second generation stars (about 50%) along the cluster asymptotic giant branch. We conclude that there is no simple explanation for the lack of second generation stars in the spectroscopically surveyed sample, although the interplay between mass loss (with low rates) and radiative levitation may play a role in explaining this puzzle.

Polarization observables in hard rescattering mechanism of deuteron photodisintegration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sargsian, Misak M.

2004-05-01

Polarization properties of high energy photodisintegration of the deuteron are studied within the framework of the hard rescattering mechanism (HRM). In HRM, a quark of one nucleon knocked-out by the incoming photon rescatters with a quark of the other nucleon leading to the production of two nucleons with high relative momentum. Summation of all relevant quark rescattering amplitudes allows us to express the scattering amplitude of the reaction through the convolution of a hard photon-quark interaction vertex, the large angle p-n scattering amplitude and the low momentum deuteron wave function. Within HRM, it is demonstrated that the polarization observables in hard photodisintegration of the deuteron can be expressed through the five helicity amplitudes of NN scattering at high momentum transfer. At 90° CM scattering HRM predicts the dominance of the isovector channel of hard pn rescattering, and it explains the observed smallness of induced, Py and transfered, Cx polarizations without invoking the argument of helicity conservation. Namely, HRM predicts that Py and Cx are proportional to the φ5 helicity amplitude which vanishes at θcm=90° due to symmetry reasons. HRM predicts also a nonzero value for Cz in the helicity-conserving regime and a positive Σ asymmetry which is related to the dominance of the isovector channel in the hard reinteraction. We extend our calculations to the region where large polarization effects are observed in pp scattering as well as give predictions for angular dependences.

Systems-based biological concordance and predictive reproducibility of gene set discovery methods in cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Azuaje, Francisco; Zheng, Huiru; Camargo, Anyela; Wang, Haiying

2011-08-01

The discovery of novel disease biomarkers is a crucial challenge for translational bioinformatics. Demonstration of both their classification power and reproducibility across independent datasets are essential requirements to assess their potential clinical relevance. Small datasets and multiplicity of putative biomarker sets may explain lack of predictive reproducibility. Studies based on pathway-driven discovery approaches have suggested that, despite such discrepancies, the resulting putative biomarkers tend to be implicated in common biological processes. Investigations of this problem have been mainly focused on datasets derived from cancer research. We investigated the predictive and functional concordance of five methods for discovering putative biomarkers in four independently-generated datasets from the cardiovascular disease domain. A diversity of biosignatures was identified by the different methods. However, we found strong biological process concordance between them, especially in the case of methods based on gene set analysis. With a few exceptions, we observed lack of classification reproducibility using independent datasets. Partial overlaps between our putative sets of biomarkers and the primary studies exist. Despite the observed limitations, pathway-driven or gene set analysis can predict potentially novel biomarkers and can jointly point to biomedically-relevant underlying molecular mechanisms. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Observations of the Hot Horizontal Branch Stars in the Metal-Rich Bulge Globular Cluster NGC 6388

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moehler, S.; Sweigart, A. V.

2006-01-01

The metal-rich bulge globular cluster NGC 6388 shows a distinct blue horizontal-branch tail in its colour-magnitude diagram (Rich et al. 1997) and is thus a strong case of the well-known 2nd Parameter Problem. In addition, its horizontal branch (HB) shows an upward tilt toward bluer colours, which cannot be explained by canonical evolutionary models. Several non-canonical scenarios have been proposed to explain these puzzling observations. In order to test the predictions of these scenarios, we have obtained medium resolution spectra to determine the atmospheric parameters of a sample of the blue HB stars in NGC 6388.Using the medium resolution spectra, we determine effective temperatures, surface gravities and helium abundances by fitting the observed Balmer and helium lines with appropriate theoretical stellar spectra. As we know the distance to the cluster, we can verify our results by determining masses for the stars. During the data reduction we took special care to correctly subtract the background, which is dominated by the overlapping spectra of cool stars. The cool blue tail stars in our sample with T(sub eff) approximately 10000 K have lower than canonical surface gravities, suggesting that these stars are, on average, approximately equal to 0.4 mag brighter than canonical HB stars in agreement with the observed upward slope of the HB in NGC 6388. Moreover, the mean mass of these stars agrees well with theoretical predictions. In contrast, the hot blue tail stars in our sample with T(sub eff) greater than or equal to 12000 K show significantly lower surface gravities than predicted by any scenario, which can reproduce the photometric observations. Their masses are also too low by about a factor of 2 compared to theoretical predictions. The physical parameters of the blue HB stars at about 10,000 K support the helium pollution scenario. The low gravities and masses of the hot blue tail stars, however, are probably caused by problems with the data reduction, most likely due to remaining background light in the spectra, which would affect the fainter hot blue tail stars much more strongly than the brighter cool blue tail stars. Our study of the hot blue tail stars in NGC 6388 illustrates the obstacles which are encountered when attempting to determine the atmospheric parameters of hot HB stars in very crowded fields using ground-based observations. We discuss these obstacles and offer possible solutions for future projects.

Measuring Socioeconomic Inequalities With Predicted Absolute Incomes Rather Than Wealth Quintiles: A Comparative Assessment Using Child Stunting Data From National Surveys.

PubMed

Fink, Günther; Victora, Cesar G; Harttgen, Kenneth; Vollmer, Sebastian; Vidaletti, Luís Paulo; Barros, Aluisio J D

2017-04-01

To compare the predictive power of synthetic absolute income measures with that of asset-based wealth quintiles in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) using child stunting as an outcome. We pooled data from 239 nationally representative household surveys from LMICs and computed absolute incomes in US dollars based on households' asset rank as well as data on national consumption and inequality levels. We used multivariable regression models to compare the predictive power of the created income measure with the predictive power of existing asset indicator measures. In cross-country analysis, log absolute income predicted 54.5% of stunting variation observed, compared with 20% of variation explained by wealth quintiles. For within-survey analysis, we also found absolute income gaps to be predictive of the gaps between stunting in the wealthiest and poorest households (P < .001). Our results suggest that absolute income levels can greatly improve the prediction of stunting levels across and within countries over time, compared with models that rely solely on relative wealth quintiles.

Low-high junction theory applied to solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Godlewski, M. P.; Baraona, C. R.; Brandhorst, H. W., Jr.

1973-01-01

Recent use of alloying techniques for rear contact formation has yielded a new kind of silicon solar cell, the back surface field (BSF) cell, with abnormally high open circuit voltage and improved radiation resistance. Several analytical models for open circuit voltage based on the reverse saturation current are formulated to explain these observations. The zero SRV case of the conventional cell model, the drift field model, and the low-high junction (LHJ) model can predict the experimental trends. The LHJ model applies the theory of the low-high junction and is considered to reflect a more realistic view of cell fabrication. This model can predict the experimental trends observed for BSF cells. Detailed descriptions and derivations for the models are included. The correspondences between them are discussed. This modeling suggests that the meaning of minority carrier diffusion length measured in BSF cells be reexamined.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaggero, Daniele; Urbano, Alfredo; Valli, Mauro

We compute the γ-ray and neutrino diffuse emission of the Galaxy on the basis of a recently proposed phenomenological model characterized by radially dependent cosmic-ray (CR) transport properties. We show how this model, designed to reproduce both Fermi-LAT γ-ray data and local CR observables, naturally reproduces the anomalous TeV diffuse emission observed by Milagro in the inner Galactic plane. Above 100 TeV our picture predicts a neutrino flux that is about five (two) times larger than the neutrino flux computed with conventional models in the Galactic Center region (full-sky). Explaining in that way up to ∼25% of the flux measuredmore » by IceCube, we reproduce the full-sky IceCube spectrum adding an extra-Galactic component derived from the muonic neutrinos flux in the northern hemisphere. We also present precise predictions for the Galactic plane region where the flux is dominated by the Galactic emission.« less

Predicting spiral wave patterns from cell properties in a model of biological self-organization.

PubMed

Geberth, Daniel; Hütt, Marc-Thorsten

2008-09-01

In many biological systems, biological variability (i.e., systematic differences between the system components) can be expected to outrank statistical fluctuations in the shaping of self-organized patterns. In principle, the distribution of single-element properties should thus allow predicting features of such patterns. For a mathematical model of a paradigmatic and well-studied pattern formation process, spiral waves of cAMP signaling in colonies of the slime mold Dictyostelium discoideum, we explore this possibility and observe a pronounced anticorrelation between spiral waves and cell properties (namely, the firing rate) and particularly a clustering of spiral wave tips in regions devoid of spontaneously firing (pacemaker) cells. Furthermore, we observe local inhomogeneities in the distribution of spiral chiralities, again induced by the pacemaker distribution. We show that these findings can be explained by a simple geometrical model of spiral wave generation.

The solar flare extreme ultraviolet to hard X-ray ratio

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcclymont, A. N.; Canfield, R. C.

1986-01-01

Simultaneous measurements of the peak 10-1030 A extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flux enhancement and more than 10 keV hard X-ray (HXR) peak flux of many solar flare bursts, ranging over about four orders of magnitude in HXR intensity, are studied. A real departure from linearity is found in the relationship between the peak EUV and HXR fluxes in impulsive flare bursts. This relationship is well described by a given power law. Comparison of the predictions of the impulsive nonthermal thick-target electron beam model with observations shows that the model satisfactorily predicts the observed time differences between the HXR and EUV peaks and explains the data very well under given specific assumptions. It is concluded that the high-energy fluxes implied by the invariant area thick-target model cannot be completely ruled out, while the invariant area model with smaller low cutoff requires impossibly large beam densities. A later alternative thick-target model is suggested.

Personality and job stress: a comparison of direct effects on parenting.

PubMed

Blanch, Angel; Aluja, Anton

2011-11-01

The impact of personality and job characteristics on parental rearing styles was compared in 353 employees. Hypotheses concerning the relationships between personality and job variables were formulated in accordance with findings in past research and the Belsky's model (1984). Structural equation nested models showed that Aggression-hostility, Sociability and job Demand were predictive of Rejection and Emotional Warmth parenting styles, providing support for some of the hypothesized relationships. The findings suggest a well-balanced association of personality variables with both parenting styles: Aggression-Hostility was positively related to Rejection and negatively to Emotional Warmth, whereas Sociability was positively related to Emotional Warmth and negatively related to Rejection. Personality dimensions explained a higher amount of variance in observed parenting styles. However, a model that considered both, personality and job dimensions as antecedent variables of parenting was the best representation of observed data, as both systems play a role in the prediction of parenting behavior.

Constructing and Deconstructing Concepts.

PubMed

Doan, Charles A; Vigo, Ronaldo

2016-09-01

Several empirical investigations have explored whether observers prefer to sort sets of multidimensional stimuli into groups by employing one-dimensional or family-resemblance strategies. Although one-dimensional sorting strategies have been the prevalent finding for these unsupervised classification paradigms, several researchers have provided evidence that the choice of strategy may depend on the particular demands of the task. To account for this disparity, we propose that observers extract relational patterns from stimulus sets that facilitate the development of optimal classification strategies for relegating category membership. We conducted a novel constrained categorization experiment to empirically test this hypothesis by instructing participants to either add or remove objects from presented categorical stimuli. We employed generalized representational information theory (GRIT; Vigo, 2011b , 2013a , 2014 ) and its associated formal models to predict and explain how human beings chose to modify these categorical stimuli. Additionally, we compared model performance to predictions made by a leading prototypicality measure in the literature.

Melodic sound enhances visual awareness of congruent musical notes, but only if you can read music.

PubMed

Lee, Minyoung; Blake, Randolph; Kim, Sujin; Kim, Chai-Youn

2015-07-07

Predictive influences of auditory information on resolution of visual competition were investigated using music, whose visual symbolic notation is familiar only to those with musical training. Results from two experiments using different experimental paradigms revealed that melodic congruence between what is seen and what is heard impacts perceptual dynamics during binocular rivalry. This bisensory interaction was observed only when the musical score was perceptually dominant, not when it was suppressed from awareness, and it was observed only in people who could read music. Results from two ancillary experiments showed that this effect of congruence cannot be explained by differential patterns of eye movements or by differential response sluggishness associated with congruent score/melody combinations. Taken together, these results demonstrate robust audiovisual interaction based on high-level, symbolic representations and its predictive influence on perceptual dynamics during binocular rivalry.

Predicting spiral wave patterns from cell properties in a model of biological self-organization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geberth, Daniel; Hütt, Marc-Thorsten

2008-09-01

In many biological systems, biological variability (i.e., systematic differences between the system components) can be expected to outrank statistical fluctuations in the shaping of self-organized patterns. In principle, the distribution of single-element properties should thus allow predicting features of such patterns. For a mathematical model of a paradigmatic and well-studied pattern formation process, spiral waves of cAMP signaling in colonies of the slime mold Dictyostelium discoideum, we explore this possibility and observe a pronounced anticorrelation between spiral waves and cell properties (namely, the firing rate) and particularly a clustering of spiral wave tips in regions devoid of spontaneously firing (pacemaker) cells. Furthermore, we observe local inhomogeneities in the distribution of spiral chiralities, again induced by the pacemaker distribution. We show that these findings can be explained by a simple geometrical model of spiral wave generation.

Prediction of prosocial and emotional competence from maternal behavior in African American preschoolers.

PubMed

Garner, Pamela W

2006-04-01

This research investigates whether individual differences in African American preschoolers' prosocial behavior and emotional regulation ability were differentially predicted by parenting practices around prosocial behavior and emotions, once variance due to SES was explained. Seventy African American preschoolers were visited at their preschools and their prosocial and emotion regulation behaviors were observed. Mothers' emotion and prosocial-related socialization behaviors were observed during a separate home visit. Positive prosocial-related maternal variables (i.e., social approval of the act and praise of the child) were positively associated with prosocial behavior, above and beyond SES. On the other hand, positive emotion-related maternal variables, such as matching and discussion of emotions were more strongly related to emotion regulation behavior. Findings are discussed in terms of the lack of research on higher SES African American children and the associated methodological challenges of conducting developmental research on diverse populations.

Solving puzzles of GW150914 by primordial black holes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blinnikov, S.; Dolgov, A.; Porayko, N.K.

The black hole binary properties inferred from the LIGO gravitational wave signal GW150914 posed several serious problems. The high masses and low effective spin of black hole binary can be explained if they are primordial (PBH) rather than the products of the stellar binary evolution. Such PBH properties are postulated ad hoc but not derived from fundamental theory. We show that the necessary features of PBHs naturally follow from the slightly modified Affleck-Dine (AD) mechanism of baryogenesis. The log-normal distribution of PBHs, predicted within the AD paradigm, is adjusted to provide an abundant population of low-spin stellar mass black holes.more » The same distribution gives a sufficient number of quickly growing seeds of supermassive black holes observed at high redshifts and may comprise an appreciable fraction of Dark Matter which does not contradict any existing observational limits. Testable predictions of this scenario are discussed.« less

An Application of Evolutionary Game Theory to Social Dilemmas: The Traveler's Dilemma and the Minimum Effort Coordination Game

PubMed Central

Iyer, Swami; Reyes, Joshua; Killingback, Timothy

2014-01-01

The Traveler's Dilemma game and the Minimum Effort Coordination game are two social dilemmas that have attracted considerable attention due to the fact that the predictions of classical game theory are at odds with the results found when the games are studied experimentally. Moreover, a direct application of deterministic evolutionary game theory, as embodied in the replicator dynamics, to these games does not explain the observed behavior. In this work, we formulate natural variants of these two games as smoothed continuous-strategy games. We study the evolutionary dynamics of these continuous-strategy games, both analytically and through agent-based simulations, and show that the behavior predicted theoretically is in accord with that observed experimentally. Thus, these variants of the Traveler's Dilemma and the Minimum Effort Coordination games provide a simple resolution of the paradoxical behavior associated with the original games. PMID:24709851

An application of evolutionary game theory to social dilemmas: the traveler's dilemma and the minimum effort coordination game.

PubMed

Iyer, Swami; Reyes, Joshua; Killingback, Timothy

2014-01-01

The Traveler's Dilemma game and the Minimum Effort Coordination game are two social dilemmas that have attracted considerable attention due to the fact that the predictions of classical game theory are at odds with the results found when the games are studied experimentally. Moreover, a direct application of deterministic evolutionary game theory, as embodied in the replicator dynamics, to these games does not explain the observed behavior. In this work, we formulate natural variants of these two games as smoothed continuous-strategy games. We study the evolutionary dynamics of these continuous-strategy games, both analytically and through agent-based simulations, and show that the behavior predicted theoretically is in accord with that observed experimentally. Thus, these variants of the Traveler's Dilemma and the Minimum Effort Coordination games provide a simple resolution of the paradoxical behavior associated with the original games.

Individual differences in emotion word processing: A diffusion model analysis.

PubMed

Mueller, Christina J; Kuchinke, Lars

2016-06-01

The exploratory study investigated individual differences in implicit processing of emotional words in a lexical decision task. A processing advantage for positive words was observed, and differences between happy and fear-related words in response times were predicted by individual differences in specific variables of emotion processing: Whereas more pronounced goal-directed behavior was related to a specific slowdown in processing of fear-related words, the rate of spontaneous eye blinks (indexing brain dopamine levels) was associated with a processing advantage of happy words. Estimating diffusion model parameters revealed that the drift rate (rate of information accumulation) captures unique variance of processing differences between happy and fear-related words, with highest drift rates observed for happy words. Overall emotion recognition ability predicted individual differences in drift rates between happy and fear-related words. The findings emphasize that a significant amount of variance in emotion processing is explained by individual differences in behavioral data.

The Evolution of Low-Metallicity Massive Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szécsi, Dorottya

2016-07-01

Massive star evolution taking place in astrophysical environments consisting almost entirely of hydrogen and helium - in other words, low-metallicity environments - is responsible for some of the most intriguing and energetic cosmic phenomena, including supernovae, gamma-ray bursts and gravitational waves. This thesis aims to investigate the life and death of metal-poor massive stars, using theoretical simulations of the stellar structure and evolution. Evolutionary models of rotating, massive stars (9-600 Msun) with an initial metal composition appropriate for the low-metallicity dwarf galaxy I Zwicky 18 are presented and analyzed. We find that the fast rotating models (300 km/s) become a particular type of objects predicted only at low-metallicity: the so-called Transparent Wind Ultraviolet INtense (TWUIN) stars. TWUIN stars are fast rotating massive stars that are extremely hot (90 kK), very bright and as compact as Wolf-Rayet stars. However, as opposed to Wolf-Rayet stars, their stellar winds are optically thin. As these hot objects emit intense UV radiation, we show that they can explain the unusually high number of ionizing photons of the dwarf galaxy I Zwicky 18, an observational quantity that cannot be understood solely based on the normal stellar population of this galaxy. On the other hand, we find that the most massive, slowly rotating models become another special type of object predicted only at low-metallicity: core-hydrogen-burning cool supergiant stars. Having a slow but strong stellar wind, these supergiants may be important contributors in the chemical evolution of young galactic globular clusters. In particular, we suggest that the low mass stars observed today could form in a dense, massive and cool shell around these, now dead, supergiants. This scenario is shown to explain the anomalous surface abundances observed in these low mass stars, since the shell itself, having been made of the mass ejected by the supergiant’s wind, contains nuclear burning products in the same ratio as observed today in globular clusters stars. Further elaborating the fast rotating TWUIN star models, we predict that some of them will become Wolf-Rayet stars near the end of their lives. From this we show that our models can self-consistently explain both the high ionizing flux and the number of Wolf-Rayet stars in I Zwicky 18. Moreover, some of our models are predicted to explode as long-duration gamma-ray bursts. Thus, we speculate that the high ionizing flux observed can be a signpost for upcoming gamma-ray bursts in dwarf galaxies. Although our models have been applied to interpret observations of globular clusters and dwarf galaxies, we point out that they could also be used in the context of other low-metallicity environments as well. Understanding the early Universe, for example, requires to have a solid knowledge of how massive stars at low-metallicity live and interact with their environments. Thus, we expect that the models and results presented in this thesis will be beneficial for not only the massive star community, but for the broader astronomy and cosmology community as well.

Empirical models based on the universal soil loss equation fail to predict sediment discharges from Chesapeake Bay catchments.

PubMed

Boomer, Kathleen B; Weller, Donald E; Jordan, Thomas E

2008-01-01

The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its derivatives are widely used for identifying watersheds with a high potential for degrading stream water quality. We compared sediment yields estimated from regional application of the USLE, the automated revised RUSLE2, and five sediment delivery ratio algorithms to measured annual average sediment delivery in 78 catchments of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We did the same comparisons for another 23 catchments monitored by the USGS. Predictions exceeded observed sediment yields by more than 100% and were highly correlated with USLE erosion predictions (Pearson r range, 0.73-0.92; p < 0.001). RUSLE2-erosion estimates were highly correlated with USLE estimates (r = 0.87; p < 001), so the method of implementing the USLE model did not change the results. In ranked comparisons between observed and predicted sediment yields, the models failed to identify catchments with higher yields (r range, -0.28-0.00; p > 0.14). In a multiple regression analysis, soil erodibility, log (stream flow), basin shape (topographic relief ratio), the square-root transformed proportion of forest, and occurrence in the Appalachian Plateau province explained 55% of the observed variance in measured suspended sediment loads, but the model performed poorly (r(2) = 0.06) at predicting loads in the 23 USGS watersheds not used in fitting the model. The use of USLE or multiple regression models to predict sediment yields is not advisable despite their present widespread application. Integrated watershed models based on the USLE may also be unsuitable for making management decisions.

Functional dissociation of stimulus intensity encoding and predictive coding of pain in the insula

PubMed Central

Geuter, Stephan; Boll, Sabrina; Eippert, Falk; Büchel, Christian

2017-01-01

The computational principles by which the brain creates a painful experience from nociception are still unknown. Classic theories suggest that cortical regions either reflect stimulus intensity or additive effects of intensity and expectations, respectively. By contrast, predictive coding theories provide a unified framework explaining how perception is shaped by the integration of beliefs about the world with mismatches resulting from the comparison of these beliefs against sensory input. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging during a probabilistic heat pain paradigm, we investigated which computations underlie pain perception. Skin conductance, pupil dilation, and anterior insula responses to cued pain stimuli strictly followed the response patterns hypothesized by the predictive coding model, whereas posterior insula encoded stimulus intensity. This novel functional dissociation of pain processing within the insula together with previously observed alterations in chronic pain offer a novel interpretation of aberrant pain processing as disturbed weighting of predictions and prediction errors. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.24770.001 PMID:28524817

Body Composition Predicts Growth in Infants and Toddlers With Chronic Liver Disease.

PubMed

Hurtado-López, Erika F; Vásquez-Garibay, Edgar M; Trujillo, Xóchitl; Larrosa-Haro, Alfredo

2017-12-01

This cross-sectional study was conducted on 15 infants and toddlers with chronic liver disease to validate arm anthropometry as an accurate measure of body composition (BC) compared to dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry and to predict growth from BC. The z score means of the anthropometric indicators were <-2 standard deviation, except for body fat index and subscapular skinfold, which were between -2 and +2 standard deviation. Fat mass was predicted by arm adiposity indicators and fat-free mass by arm muscle area. Bone mineral content explained 87% of variation in length. Two multiple regression models predicted length: 1 with fat mass plus fat-free mass; and the second with fat mass and bone mineral content. These observations suggest that arm anthropometry is a useful tool to estimate BC and the nutritional status in infants and toddlers with chronic liver disease. Length and head circumference can be predicted by fat mass, fat-free mass, and bone mineral content.

Implications of Stellar Feedback for Dynamical Modeling of the Milky Way and Dwarf Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetzel, Andrew

2018-04-01

I will present recent results on dynamical modeling of stellar populations from the FIRE cosmological zoom-in baryonic simulations of Milky Way-like and dwarf galaxies. First, I will discuss the dynamical formation of the Milky Way, including the origin of thin+thick stellar disk morphology. I also will discuss the curious origin of metal-rich stars on halo-like orbits near the Sun, as recently measured by Gaia, with new insights from FIRE simulations on stellar radial migration/heating. Next, I will discuss role of stellar feedback in generating non-equilibrium fluctuations of the gravitational potential in low-mass 'dwarf' galaxies, which can explain the origin of cores in their dark-matter density profiles. In particular, we predict significant observable effects on stellar dynamics, including radial migration, size fluctuations, and population gradients, which can provide observational tests of feedback-driven core formation. Finally, this scenario can explain the formation of newly discovered 'ultra-diffuse' galaxies.

Posttransplant Immune Activation

PubMed Central

Bamoulid, Jamal; Crepin, Thomas; Rebibou, Jean-Michel; Courivaud, Cecile; Saas, Philippe

2017-01-01

Cardiovascular disease is a major cause of morbidity, disability, and mortality in kidney transplant patients. Cumulative reports indicate that the excessive risk of cardiovascular events is not entirely explained by the increased prevalence of traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory disease, and it has been postulated that posttransplant immune disturbances may explain the gap between the predicted and observed risks of cardiovascular events. Although concordant data suggest that innate immunity contributes to the posttransplant accelerated atherosclerosis, only few arguments plead for a role of adaptive immunity. We report and discuss here consistent data demonstrating that CD8+ T cell activation is a frequent posttransplant immune feature that may have pro-atherogenic effects. Expansion of exhausted/activated CD8+ T cells in kidney transplant recipients is stimulated by several factors including cytomegalovirus infections, lymphodepletive therapy (e.g., antithymocyte globulins), chronic allogeneic stimulation, and a past history of renal insufficiency. This is observed in the setting of decreased thymic activity, a process also found in elderly individuals and reflecting accelerated immune senescence. PMID:29113470

Discrepancies between self and observer ratings of depression. The relationship to demographic, clinical and personality variables.

PubMed

Enns, M W; Larsen, D K; Cox, B J

2000-10-01

The observer-rated Hamilton depression scale (HamD) and the self-report Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) are among the most commonly used rating scales for depression, and both have well demonstrated reliability and validity. However, many depressed subjects have discrepant scores on these two assessment methods. The present study evaluated the ability of demographic, clinical and personality factors to account for the discrepancies observed between BDI and HamD ratings. The study group consisted of 94 SCID-diagnosed outpatients with a current major depressive disorder. Subjects were rated with the 21-item HamD and completed the BDI and the NEO-Five Factor Inventory. Younger age, higher educational attainment, and depressive subtype (atypical, non-melancholic) were predictive of higher BDI scores relative to HamD observer ratings. In addition, high neuroticism, low extraversion and low agreeableness were associated with higher endorsement of depressive symptoms on the BDI relative to the HamD. In general, these predictive variables showed a greater ability to explain discrepancies between self and observer ratings of psychological symptoms of depression compared to somatic symptoms of depression. The study does not determine which aspects of neuroticism and extraversion contribute to the observed BDI/HamD discrepancies. Depression ratings obtained with the BDI and HamD are frequently discordant and a number of patient characteristics robustly predict the discrepancy between these two rating methods. The value of multi-modal assessment in the conduct of research on depressive disorders is re-affirmed.

Stability and dynamics of the edge pedestal in the low collisionality regime: physics mechanisms for steady-state ELM-free operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, P. B.; Burrell, K. H.; Wilson, H. R.; Chu, M. S.; Fenstermacher, M. E.; Leonard, A. W.; Moyer, R. A.; Osborne, T. H.; Umansky, M.; West, W. P.; Xu, X. Q.

2007-08-01

Understanding the physics of the edge pedestal and edge localized modes (ELMs) is of great importance for ITER and the optimization of the tokamak concept. The peeling-ballooning model has quantitatively explained many observations, including ELM onset and pedestal constraints, in the standard H-mode regime. The ELITE code has been developed to efficiently evaluate peeling-ballooning stability for comparison with observation and predictions for future devices. We briefly review recent progress in the peeling-ballooning model, including experimental validation of ELM onset and pedestal height predictions, and nonlinear 3D simulations of ELM dynamics, which together lead to an emerging understanding of the physics of the onset and dynamics of ELMs in the standard intermediate to high collisionality regime. We also discuss new studies of the apparent power dependence of the pedestal, and studies of the impact of sheared toroidal flow. Recently, highly promising low collisionality regimes without ELMs have been discovered, including the quiescent H-mode (QH) and resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) regimes. We present recent observations from the DIII-D tokamak of the density, shape and rotation dependence of QH discharges, and studies of the peeling-ballooning stability in this regime. We propose a model of the QH-mode in which the observed edge harmonic oscillation (EHO) is a saturated kink/peeling mode which is destabilized by current and rotation, and drives significant transport, allowing a near steady-state edge plasma. The model quantitatively predicts the observed density dependence and qualitatively predicts observed mode structure, rotation dependence and outer gap dependence. Low density RMP discharges are found to operate in a similar regime, but with the EHO replaced by an applied magnetic perturbation.

Surface induced phonon decay rates in thin film nano-structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Photiadis, D. M.

2007-12-01

Nano-scale structure significantly impacts phonon transport and related phonon relaxation rates, with order of magnitude effects on the thermal conductivity of dielectric thin films and quantum wires, and even larger effects on the lifetimes of ultrasonic phonons of micro- (nano-) oscillators. In both cases, efforts to explain the data have been hampered by our lack of knowledge of the effects of confined dimensionality on phonon-phonon scattering rates. Using a phonon Boltzmann equation with appropriate boundary conditions on the free surfaces to take surface roughness into account, we have obtained an expression yielding phonon lifetimes in 2-D dielectric nanostructures(thin films) resulting from phonon-phonon scattering in conjunction with phonon-surface scattering. We present these theoretical results and, in the limit in which surface induced losses dominate, obtain explicit predictions for the phonon lifetimes. The predicted temperature dependence of the ultrason! ic loss does not explain the observed saturation of the loss at low temperatures(τ(T) → const), but does give results of the order of magnitude of measured ultrasonic lifetimes.

Scaling of Perceptual Errors Can Predict the Shape of Neural Tuning Curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shouval, Harel Z.; Agarwal, Animesh; Gavornik, Jeffrey P.

2013-04-01

Weber’s law, first characterized in the 19th century, states that errors estimating the magnitude of perceptual stimuli scale linearly with stimulus intensity. This linear relationship is found in most sensory modalities, generalizes to temporal interval estimation, and even applies to some abstract variables. Despite its generality and long experimental history, the neural basis of Weber’s law remains unknown. This work presents a simple theory explaining the conditions under which Weber’s law can result from neural variability and predicts that the tuning curves of neural populations which adhere to Weber’s law will have a log-power form with parameters that depend on spike-count statistics. The prevalence of Weber’s law suggests that it might be optimal in some sense. We examine this possibility, using variational calculus, and show that Weber’s law is optimal only when observed real-world variables exhibit power-law statistics with a specific exponent. Our theory explains how physiology gives rise to the behaviorally characterized Weber’s law and may represent a general governing principle relating perception to neural activity.

Cool Cosmology: ``WHISPER" better than ``BANG"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carr, Paul

2007-10-01

Cosmologist Fred Hoyle coined ``big bang'' as a term of derision for Belgian priest George Lemaitre's prediction that the universe had originated from the expansion of a ``primeval atom'' in space-time. Hoyle referred to Lamaitre's hypothesis sarcastically as ``this big bang idea'' during a program broadcast on March 28, 1949 on the BBC. Hoyle's continuous creation or steady state theory can not explain the microwave background radiation or cosmic whisper discovered by Penzias and Wilson in 1964. The expansion and subsequent cooling of Lemaitre's hot ``primeval atom'' explains the whisper. ``Big bang'' makes no physical sense, as there was no matter (or space) to carry the sound that Hoyle's term implies. The ``big bang'' is a conjecture. New discoveries may be able to predict the observed ``whispering cosmos'' as well as dark matter and the nature of dark energy. The ``whispering universe'' is cooler cosmology than the big bang. Reference: Carr, Paul H. 2006. ``From the 'Music of the Spheres' to the 'Whispering Cosmos.' '' Chapter 3 of Beauty in Science and Spirit. Beech River Books. Center Ossipee, NH, http://www.MirrorOfNature.org.

A molecular topology approach to predicting pesticide pollution of groundwater

USGS Publications Warehouse

Worrall , Fred

2001-01-01

Various models have proposed methods for the discrimination of polluting and nonpolluting compounds on the basis of simple parameters, typically adsorption and degradation constants. However, such attempts are prone to site variability and measurement error to the extent that compounds cannot be reliably classified nor the chemistry of pollution extrapolated from them. Using observations of pesticide occurrence in U.S. groundwater it is possible to show that polluting from nonpolluting compounds can be distinguished purely on the basis of molecular topology. Topological parameters can be derived without measurement error or site-specific variability. A logistic regression model has been developed which explains 97% of the variation in the data, with 86% of the variation being explained by the rule that a compound will be found in groundwater if 6 < 0.55. Where 6χp is the sixth-order molecular path connectivity. One group of compounds cannot be classified by this rule and prediction requires reference to higher order connectivity parameters. The use of molecular approaches for understanding pollution at the molecular level and their application to agrochemical development and risk assessment is discussed.

Trace element evaluation of a suite of rocks from Reunion Island, Indian Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zielinski, R.A.

1975-01-01

Reunion Island consists of an olivine-basalt shield capped by a series of flows and intrusives ranging from hawaiite through trachyte. Eleven rocks representing the total compositional sequence have been analyzed for U, Th and REE. Eight of the rocks (group 1) have positive-slope, parallel, chondrite-normalized REE fractionation patterns. Using a computer model, the major element compositions of group 1 whole rocks and observed phenocrysts were used to predict the crystallization histories of increasingly residual liquids, and allowed semi-quantitative verification of origin by fractional crystallization of the olivine-basalt parent magma. Results were combined with mineral-liquid distribution coefficient data to predict trace element abundances, and existing data on Cr, Ni, Sr and Ba were also successfully incorporated in the model. The remaining three rocks (group 2) have nonuniform positive-slope REE fractionation patterns not parallel to group 1 patterns. Rare earth fractionation in a syenite is explained by partial melting of a source rich in clinopyroxene and/or hornblende. The other two rocks of group 2 are explained as hybrids resulting from mixing of syenite and magmas of group 1. ?? 1975.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilkerson, Andrea M.; Sullivan, Gregory P.; Davis, Robert G.

Documentation of the Yuma Sector Border Patrol Area lighting LED trial demonstration continues to provide a better understanding of LED technology performance in a high ambient temperature and high solar radiation environment. Measured data at the project site showed illuminances changing more rapidly than anticipated. As previously predicted, the causes for these observed changes are mostly if not completely explained by dirt accumulation. The laboratory measurements showed not only the effect of dirt on lumen output, but also on the distribution of light exiting the luminaire.

The Effectiveness of Predict-Observe-Explain Technique in Probing Students' Understanding about Acid-Base Chemistry: A Case for the Concepts of pH, pOH, and Strength

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kala, Nesli; Yaman, Fatma; Ayas, Alipasa

2013-01-01

The present study describes high school students' conceptions about acids and bases in terms of pH, pOH, microscopic level, strength, and concentration. A total of 27 high school students participated in the study. The data was collected using 3 POE tasks and a semi-structured interview. The data analysis demonstrated that most of the students had…

Determinants of the Pace of Global Innovation in Energy Technologies

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-14

quality (see Figures S1 and S2 in File S1), a comprehensive patent database is a powerful tool for investigating the determinants of innovative...model in order to avoid overfitting the data and to maximize predictive power . We develop a model that explains the observed trends in energy...patents. (A.) World map of cumulative patents in photovoltaics (solar). Japan is the leading nation in terms of patent numbers, followed by the US and China

A complete diet-based algorithm for predicting nonheme iron absorption in adults.

PubMed

Armah, Seth M; Carriquiry, Alicia; Sullivan, Debra; Cook, James D; Reddy, Manju B

2013-07-01

Many algorithms have been developed in the past few decades to estimate nonheme iron absorption from the diet based on single meal absorption studies. Yet single meal studies exaggerate the effect of diet and other factors on absorption. Here, we propose a new algorithm based on complete diets for estimating nonheme iron absorption. We used data from 4 complete diet studies each with 12-14 participants for a total of 53 individuals (19 men and 34 women) aged 19-38 y. In each study, each participant was observed during three 1-wk periods during which they consumed different diets. The diets were typical, high, or low in meat, tea, calcium, or vitamin C. The total sample size was 159 (53 × 3) observations. We used multiple linear regression to quantify the effect of different factors on iron absorption. Serum ferritin was the most important factor in explaining differences in nonheme iron absorption, whereas the effect of dietary factors was small. When our algorithm was validated with single meal and complete diet data, the respective R(2) values were 0.57 (P < 0.001) and 0.84 (P < 0.0001). The results also suggest that between-person variations explain a large proportion of the differences in nonheme iron absorption. The algorithm based on complete diets we propose is useful for predicting nonheme iron absorption from the diets of different populations.

Tunable quantum interference in a 3D integrated circuit.

PubMed

Chaboyer, Zachary; Meany, Thomas; Helt, L G; Withford, Michael J; Steel, M J

2015-04-27

Integrated photonics promises solutions to questions of stability, complexity, and size in quantum optics. Advances in tunable and non-planar integrated platforms, such as laser-inscribed photonics, continue to bring the realisation of quantum advantages in computation and metrology ever closer, perhaps most easily seen in multi-path interferometry. Here we demonstrate control of two-photon interference in a chip-scale 3D multi-path interferometer, showing a reduced periodicity and enhanced visibility compared to single photon measurements. Observed non-classical visibilities are widely tunable, and explained well by theoretical predictions based on classical measurements. With these predictions we extract Fisher information approaching a theoretical maximum. Our results open a path to quantum enhanced phase measurements.

Atomic bonding effects in annular dark field scanning transmission electron microscopy. II. Experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Odlyzko, Michael L.; Held, Jacob T.; Mkhoyan, K. Andre, E-mail: mkhoyan@umn.edu

2016-07-15

Quantitatively calibrated annular dark field scanning transmission electron microscopy (ADF-STEM) imaging experiments were compared to frozen phonon multislice simulations adapted to include chemical bonding effects. Having carefully matched simulation parameters to experimental conditions, a depth-dependent bonding effect was observed for high-angle ADF-STEM imaging of aluminum nitride. This result is explained by computational predictions, systematically examined in the preceding portion of this study, showing the propagation of the converged STEM beam to be highly sensitive to net interatomic charge transfer. Thus, although uncertainties in experimental conditions and simulation accuracy remain, the computationally predicted experimental bonding effect withstands the experimental testing reportedmore » here.« less

Confidence in word detection predicts word identification: implications for an unconscious perception paradigm.

PubMed

Haase, S J; Fisk, G

2001-01-01

The present experiments extend the scope of the independent observation model based on signal detection theory (Macmillan & Creelman, 1991) to complex (word) stimulus sets. In the first experiment, the model predicts the relationship between uncertain detection and subsequent correct identification, thereby providing an alternative interpretation to a phenomenon often described as unconscious perception. Our second experiment used an exclusion task (Jacoby, Toth, & Yonelinas, 1993), which, according to theories of unconscious perception, should show qualitative differences in performance based on stimulus detection accuracy and provide a relative measure of conscious versus unconscious influences (Merikle, Joordens, & Stoltz, 1995). Exclusion performance was also explained by the model, suggesting that undetected words did not unconsciously influence identification responses.

Particle drift model for Z-pinch-driven magneto-Rayleigh-Taylor instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dan, Jia Kun; Xu, Qiang; Wang, Kun Lun; Ren, Xiao Dong; Huang, Xian Bin

2016-09-01

A theoretical model of Z-pinch driven magneto-Rayleigh-Taylor instability is proposed based on the particle drift point of view, which can explain the helical instability structure observed in premagnetized imploding liner experiments. It is demonstrated that all possible drift motions, including polarization drift, gradient drift, and curvature drift, which can lead to charge separations, each will attribute to an effective gravity acceleration. Theoretical predictions given by this model are dramatically different from those given by previous theories which have been readily recovered in the theory presented here as a limiting case. The theory shows qualitative agreement with available experimental data of the pitch angle and provides certain predictions to be verified.

Strike-Slip Fault Patterns on Europa: Obliquity or Polar Wander?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhoden, Alyssa Rose; Hurford, Terry A.; Manga, Michael

2011-01-01

Variations in diurnal tidal stress due to Europa's eccentric orbit have been considered as the driver of strike-slip motion along pre-existing faults, but obliquity and physical libration have not been taken into account. The first objective of this work is to examine the effects of obliquity on the predicted global pattern of fault slip directions based on a tidal-tectonic formation model. Our second objective is to test the hypothesis that incorporating obliquity can reconcile theory and observations without requiring polar wander, which was previously invoked to explain the mismatch found between the slip directions of 192 faults on Europa and the global pattern predicted using the eccentricity-only model. We compute predictions for individual, observed faults at their current latitude, longitude, and azimuth with four different tidal models: eccentricity only, eccentricity plus obliquity, eccentricity plus physical libration, and a combination of all three effects. We then determine whether longitude migration, presumably due to non-synchronous rotation, is indicated in observed faults by repeating the comparisons with and without obliquity, this time also allowing longitude translation. We find that a tidal model including an obliquity of 1.2?, along with longitude migration, can predict the slip directions of all observed features in the survey. However, all but four faults can be fit with only 1? of obliquity so the value we find may represent the maximum departure from a lower time-averaged obliquity value. Adding physical libration to the obliquity model improves the accuracy of predictions at the current locations of the faults, but fails to predict the slip directions of six faults and requires additional degrees of freedom. The obliquity model with longitude migration is therefore our preferred model. Although the polar wander interpretation cannot be ruled out from these results alone, the obliquity model accounts for all observations with a value consistent with theoretical expectations and cycloid modeling.

Surface Brightness Test and Plasma Redshift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brynjolfsson, Ari

2006-03-01

The plasma redshift of photons in a hot sparse plasma follows from basic axioms of physics. It has no adjustable parameters (arXiv:astro-ph/0406437). Both the distance-redshift relation and the magnitude-redshift relation for supernovae and galaxies are well-defined functions of the average electron densities in intergalactic space. We have previously shown that the predictions of the magnitude-redshift relation in plasma- redshift cosmology match well the observed relations for the type Ia supernovae (SNe). No adjustable parameters such as the time variable ``dark energy'' and ``dark matter'' are needed. We have also shown that plasma redshift cosmology predicts well the intensity and black body spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). Plasma redshift explains also the spectrum below and above the 2.73 K black body CMB, and the X-ray background. In the following, we will show that the good observations and analyses of the relation between surface brightness and redshift for galaxies, as determined by Allan Sandage and Lori M. Lubin in 2001, are well predicted by the plasma redshift. All these relations are inconsistent with cosmic time dilation and the contemporary big-bang cosmology.

Rigorously testing multialternative decision field theory against random utility models.

PubMed

Berkowitsch, Nicolas A J; Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg

2014-06-01

Cognitive models of decision making aim to explain the process underlying observed choices. Here, we test a sequential sampling model of decision making, multialternative decision field theory (MDFT; Roe, Busemeyer, & Townsend, 2001), on empirical grounds and compare it against 2 established random utility models of choice: the probit and the logit model. Using a within-subject experimental design, participants in 2 studies repeatedly choose among sets of options (consumer products) described on several attributes. The results of Study 1 showed that all models predicted participants' choices equally well. In Study 2, in which the choice sets were explicitly designed to distinguish the models, MDFT had an advantage in predicting the observed choices. Study 2 further revealed the occurrence of multiple context effects within single participants, indicating an interdependent evaluation of choice options and correlations between different context effects. In sum, the results indicate that sequential sampling models can provide relevant insights into the cognitive process underlying preferential choices and thus can lead to better choice predictions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

SUPRATHERMAL ELECTRONS IN THE SOLAR CORONA: CAN NONLOCAL TRANSPORT EXPLAIN HELIOSPHERIC CHARGE STATES?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cranmer, Steven R., E-mail: scranmer@cfa.harvard.edu

There have been several ideas proposed to explain how the Sun's corona is heated and how the solar wind is accelerated. Some models assume that open magnetic field lines are heated by Alfvén waves driven by photospheric motions and dissipated after undergoing a turbulent cascade. Other models posit that much of the solar wind's mass and energy is injected via magnetic reconnection from closed coronal loops. The latter idea is motivated by observations of reconnecting jets and also by similarities of ion composition between closed loops and the slow wind. Wave/turbulence models have also succeeded in reproducing observed trends inmore » ion composition signatures versus wind speed. However, the absolute values of the charge-state ratios predicted by those models tended to be too low in comparison with observations. This Letter refines these predictions by taking better account of weak Coulomb collisions for coronal electrons, whose thermodynamic properties determine the ion charge states in the low corona. A perturbative description of nonlocal electron transport is applied to an existing set of wave/turbulence models. The resulting electron velocity distributions in the low corona exhibit mild suprathermal tails characterized by ''kappa'' exponents between 10 and 25. These suprathermal electrons are found to be sufficiently energetic to enhance the charge states of oxygen ions, while maintaining the same relative trend with wind speed that was found when the distribution was assumed to be Maxwellian. The updated wave/turbulence models are in excellent agreement with solar wind ion composition measurements.« less

Accelerated autoantibody clearance by intravenous immunoglobulin therapy: studies in experimental models to determine the magnitude and time course of the effect.

PubMed

Bleeker, W K; Teeling, J L; Hack, C E

2001-11-15

Recently, it has been postulated that the beneficial effect of intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIGs) in antibody-mediated autoimmune disorders is based on accelerated catabolism of autoantibodies. In the current study, in vivo experiments were performed with mice in which autoantibody production was mimicked by continuous infusion of monoclonal antibodies. In this model, a single dose of IVIG reduced the plasma concentrations of the infused immunoglobulin (Ig)G1 monoclonal antibody (mAb) by approximately 40% after 3 days, whereas the concentration of an IgA mAb was not affected. To extrapolate these findings to humans, a computational model for IgG clearance was established that accurately predicted the time course and magnitude of the decrease in IgG plasma levels observed in mice. Adapted for humans, this model predicted a gradually occurring decrease in autoantibody levels after IVIG administration (2 g/kg), with a maximum reduction of approximately 25% after 3 to 4 weeks and a continued decrease of several months. In conclusion, a single high dose of IVIG induces a relatively small but long-lasting reduction of autoantibody levels by accelerated IgG clearance. This mechanism has clinical relevance in the sense that it can fully explain, as the sole mechanism, the gradual decrease in autoantibody levels observed in several patient studies. However, in some clinical studies, larger or more rapid effects have been observed that cannot be explained by accelerated clearance. Hence, IVIG can also reduce autoantibody levels through mechanisms such as down-regulation of antibody production or neutralization by anti-idiotypic antibodies.

Cabauw experimental results from the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, T.H.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Milly, P.C.D.; Pitman, A.J.; Beljaars, A.C.M.; Polcher, J.; Abramopoulos, F.; Boone, A.; Chang, S.; Chen, F.; Dai, Y.; Desborough, C.E.; Dickinson, R.E.; Dumenil, L.; Ek, M.; Garratt, J.R.; Gedney, N.; Gusev, Y.M.; Kim, J.; Koster, R.; Kowalczyk, E.A.; Laval, K.; Lean, J.; Lettenmaier, D.; Liang, X.; Mahfouf, Jean-Francois; Mengelkamp, H.-T.; Mitchell, Ken; Nasonova, O.N.; Noilhan, J.; Robock, A.; Rosenzweig, C.; Schaake, J.; Schlosser, C.A.; Schulz, J.-P.; Shao, Y.; Shmakin, A.B.; Verseghy, D.L.; Wetzel, P.; Wood, E.F.; Xue, Y.; Yang, Z.-L.; Zeng, Q.

1997-01-01

In the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes phase 2a experiment, meteorological data for the year 1987 from Cabauw, the Netherlands, were used as inputs to 23 land-surface flux schemes designed for use in climate and weather models. Schemes were evaluated by comparing their outputs with long-term measurements of surface sensible heat fluxes into the atmosphere and the ground, and of upward longwave radiation and total net radiative fluxes, and also comparing them with latent heat fluxes derived from a surface energy balance. Tuning of schemes by use of the observed flux data was not permitted. On an annual basis, the predicted surface radiative temperature exhibits a range of 2 K across schemes, consistent with the range of about 10 W m-2 in predicted surface net radiation. Most modeled values of monthly net radiation differ from the observations by less than the estimated maximum monthly observational error (±10 W m-2). However, modeled radiative surface temperature appears to have a systematic positive bias in most schemes; this might be explained by an error in assumed emissivity and by models' neglect of canopy thermal heterogeneity. Annual means of sensible and latent heat fluxes, into which net radiation is partitioned, have ranges across schemes of 30 W m-2 and 25 W m-2, respectively. Annual totals of evapotranspiration and runoff, into which the precipitation is partitioned, both have ranges of 315 mm. These ranges in annual heat and water fluxes were approximately halved upon exclusion of the three schemes that have no stomatal resistance under non-water-stressed conditions. Many schemes tend to underestimate latent heat flux and overestimate sensible heat flux in summer, with a reverse tendency in winter. For six schemes, root-mean-square deviations of predictions from monthly observations are less than the estimated upper bounds on observation errors (5 W m-2 for sensible heat flux and 10 W m-2 for latent heat flux). Actual runoff at the site is believed to be dominated by vertical drainage to groundwater, but several schemes produced significant amounts of runoff as overland flow or interflow. There is a range across schemes of 184 mm (40% of total pore volume) in the simulated annual mean root-zone soil moisture. Unfortunately, no measurements of soil moisture were available for model evaluation. A theoretical analysis suggested that differences in boundary conditions used in various schemes are not sufficient to explain the large variance in soil moisture. However, many of the extreme values of soil moisture could be explained in terms of the particulars of experimental setup or excessive evapotranspiration.

Cabauw Experimental Results from the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, T. H.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Milly, P. C. D.; Pitman, A. J.; Beljaars, A. C. M.; Polcher, J.; Abramopoulos, F.; Boone, A.; Chang, S.; Chen, F.; Dai, Y.; Desborough, C. E.; Dickinson, R. E.; Dümenil, L.; Ek, M.; Garratt, J. R.; Gedney, N.; Gusev, Y. M.;  Kim, J.;  Koster, R.;  Kowalczyk, E. A.;  Laval, K.;  Lean, J.;  Lettenmaier, D.;  Liang, X.;  Mahfouf, J.-F.;  Mengelkamp, H.-T.;  Mitchell, K.;  Nasonova, O. N.;  Noilhan, J.;  Robock, A.;  Rosenzweig, C.;  Schaake, J.;  Schlosser, C. A.;  Schulz, J.-P.;  Shao, Y.;  Shmakin, A. B.;  Verseghy, D. L.;  Wetzel, P.;  Wood, E. F.;  Xue, Y.;  Yang, Z.-L.;  Zeng, Q.

1997-06-01

In the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes phase 2a experiment, meteorological data for the year 1987 from Cabauw, the Netherlands, were used as inputs to 23 land-surface flux schemes designed for use in climate and weather models. Schemes were evaluated by comparing their outputs with long-term measurements of surface sensible heat fluxes into the atmosphere and the ground, and of upward longwave radiation and total net radiative fluxes, and also comparing them with latent heat fluxes derived from a surface energy balance. Tuning of schemes by use of the observed flux data was not permitted. On an annual basis, the predicted surface radiative temperature exhibits a range of 2 K across schemes, consistent with the range of about 10 W m2 in predicted surface net radiation. Most modeled values of monthly net radiation differ from the observations by less than the estimated maximum monthly observational error (±10 W m2). However, modeled radiative surface temperature appears to have a systematic positive bias in most schemes; this might be explained by an error in assumed emissivity and by models' neglect of canopy thermal heterogeneity. Annual means of sensible and latent heat fluxes, into which net radiation is partitioned, have ranges across schemes of30 W m2 and 25 W m2, respectively. Annual totals of evapotranspiration and runoff, into which the precipitation is partitioned, both have ranges of 315 mm. These ranges in annual heat and water fluxes were approximately halved upon exclusion of the three schemes that have no stomatal resistance under non-water-stressed conditions. Many schemes tend to underestimate latent heat flux and overestimate sensible heat flux in summer, with a reverse tendency in winter. For six schemes, root-mean-square deviations of predictions from monthly observations are less than the estimated upper bounds on observation errors (5 W m2 for sensible heat flux and 10 W m2 for latent heat flux). Actual runoff at the site is believed to be dominated by vertical drainage to groundwater, but several schemes produced significant amounts of runoff as overland flow or interflow. There is a range across schemes of 184 mm (40% of total pore volume) in the simulated annual mean root-zone soil moisture. Unfortunately, no measurements of soil moisture were available for model evaluation. A theoretical analysis suggested that differences in boundary conditions used in various schemes are not sufficient to explain the large variance in soil moisture. However, many of the extreme values of soil moisture could be explained in terms of the particulars of experimental setup or excessive evapotranspiration.

Can turned inward patella predict an excess of femoral anteversion during gait in spastic diplegic children?

PubMed

Simon, Anne-Laure; Presedo, Ana; Ilharreborde, Brice; Mallet, Cindy; Mazda, Keyvan; Penneçot, Georges-François

2014-06-01

Determining patellar orientation in the transverse plane during observational gait analysis is a fundamental aspect of physical examinations. Many physicians consider that an abnormal position of the patella in the transverse planes is only explained by a rotational abnormality of the proximal femur. A total of 188 spastic diplegic children with cerebral palsy were reviewed (376 lower limbs). The physical examination included observation of patellar orientation at midstride and measuring femoral anteversion (FA). All patients also underwent 3-dimensional (3D) computerized gait analysis of pelvic and hip rotation kinematics. Observational gait analysis and videotapes found 103 children (206 lower limbs) with inturned patella at midstance. Kinematic data from 3D gait analysis showed that the visual impression of turned inward patella was erroneous in 48 limbs. Of the remaining 158 lower limbs, 117 (74%) exhibited excessive FA and 41 (26%) did not. Of the 117 with excessive FA, kinematics showed only 66 (56%) with excessive internal hip rotation (with or without excessive internal pelvic rotation). Of the 41 lower limbs without excessive FA, 25 were explained by excessive internal pelvic rotation and 16 were explained by excessive internal hip rotation (isolated spasticity and/or contracture of internal rotator muscles). Turned inward patella was caused by isolated excessive internal pelvic rotation in 48%, excessive internal hip rotation in 35% (including 44 cases with excessive FA and 12 cases with isolated spasticity and/or contracture of internal hip rotators), and excessive internal hip rotation combined with excessive internal pelvic rotation in 17%. Excessive FA was not the only cause of turned inward patella gait and could not explain this gait anomaly by itself. Excessive internal pelvic rotation was the most frequent cause of turned inward patella gait. Level IV.

Testing constitutive relations by running and walking on cornstarch and water suspensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhopadhyay, Shomeek; Allen, Benjamin; Brown, Eric

2018-05-01

The ability of a person to run on the surface of a suspension of cornstarch and water has fascinated scientists and the public alike. However, the constitutive relation obtained from traditional steady-state rheology of cornstarch and water suspensions has failed to explain this behavior. In another paper we presented an averaged constitutive relation for impact rheology consisting of an effective compressive modulus of a system-spanning dynamically jammed structure [R. Maharjan et al., this issue, Phys. Rev. E 97, 052602 (2018), 10.1103/PhysRevE.97.052602]. Here we show that this constitutive model can be used to quantitatively predict, for example, the trajectory and penetration depth of the foot of a person walking or running on cornstarch and water. The ability of the constitutive relation to predict the material behavior in a case with different forcing conditions and flow geometry than it was obtained from suggests that the constitutive relation could be applied more generally. We also present a detailed calculation of the added mass effect to show that while it may be able to explain some cases of people running or walking on the surface of cornstarch and water for pool depths H >1.2 m and foot impact velocities VI>1.7 m/s, it cannot explain observations of people walking or running on the surface of cornstarch and water for smaller H or VI.

A landslide susceptibility map of Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broeckx, Jente; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Duchateau, Rica; Poesen, Jean

2017-04-01

Studies on landslide risks and fatalities indicate that landslides are a global threat to humans, infrastructure and the environment, certainly in Africa. Nonetheless our understanding of the spatial patterns of landslides and rockfalls on this continent is very limited. Also in global landslide susceptibility maps, Africa is mostly underrepresented in the inventories used to construct these maps. As a result, predicted landslide susceptibilities remain subject to very large uncertainties. This research aims to produce a first continent-wide landslide susceptibility map for Africa, calibrated with a well-distributed landslide dataset. As a first step, we compiled all available landslide inventories for Africa. This data was supplemented by additional landslide mapping with Google Earth in underrepresented regions. This way, we compiled 60 landslide inventories from the literature (ca. 11000 landslides) and an additional 6500 landslides through mapping in Google Earth (including 1500 rockfalls). Various environmental variables such as slope, lithology, soil characteristics, land use, precipitation and seismic activity, were investigated for their significance in explaining the observed spatial patterns of landslides. To account for potential mapping biases in our dataset, we used Monte Carlo simulations that selected different subsets of mapped landslides, tested the significance of the considered environmental variables and evaluated the performance of the fitted multiple logistic regression model against another subset of mapped landslides. Based on these analyses, we constructed two landslide susceptibility maps for Africa: one for all landslide types and one excluding rockfalls. In both maps, topography, lithology and seismic activity were the most significant variables. The latter factor may be surprising, given the overall limited degree of seismicity in Africa. However, its significance indicates that frequent seismic events may serve as in important preparatory factor for landslides. This finding concurs with several other recent studies. Rainfall explains a significant, but limited part of the observed landslide pattern and becomes insignificant when also rockfalls are considered. This may be explained by the fact that a significant fraction of the mapped rockfalls occurred in the Sahara desert. Overall, both maps perform well in predicting intra-continental patterns of mass movements in Africa and explain about 80% of the observed variance in landslide occurrence. As a result, these maps may be a valuable tool for planning and risk reduction strategies.

Increasing leaf temperature reduces the suppression of isoprene emission by elevated CO₂ concentration.

PubMed

Potosnak, Mark J; Lestourgeon, Lauren; Nunez, Othon

2014-05-15

Including algorithms to account for the suppression of isoprene emission by elevated CO2 concentration affects estimates of global isoprene emission for future climate change scenarios. In this study, leaf-level measurements of isoprene emission were made to determine the short-term interactive effect of leaf temperature and CO2 concentration. For both greenhouse plants and plants grown under field conditions, the suppression of isoprene emission was reduced by increasing leaf temperature. For each of the four different tree species investigated, aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), cottonwood (Populus deltoides W. Bartram ex Marshall), red oak (Quercus rubra L.), and tundra dwarf willow (Salix pulchra Cham.), the suppression of isoprene by elevated CO2 was eliminated at increased temperature, and the maximum temperature where suppression was observed ranged from 25 to 35°C. Hypotheses proposed to explain the short-term suppression of isoprene emission by increased CO2 concentration were tested against this observation. Hypotheses related to cofactors in the methylerythritol phosphate (MEP) pathway were consistent with reduced suppression at elevated leaf temperature. Also, reduced solubility of CO2 with increased temperature can explain the reduced suppression for the phosphoenolpyruvate (PEP) carboxylase competition hypothesis. Some global models of isoprene emission include the short-term suppression effect, and should be modified to include the observed interaction. If these results are consistent at longer timescales, there are implications for predicting future global isoprene emission budgets and the reduced suppression at increased temperature could explain some of the variable responses observed in long-term CO2 exposure experiments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stress in junior enlisted air force women with and without children.

PubMed

Hopkins-Chadwick, Denise L; Ryan-Wenger, Nancy

2009-04-01

The objective was to determine if there are differences between young enlisted military women with and without preschool children on role strain, stress, health, and military career aspiration and to identify the best predictors of these variables. The study used a cross-sectional descriptive design of 50 junior Air Force women with preschool children and 50 women without children. There were no differences between women with and without children in role strain, stress, health, and military career aspiration. In all women, higher stress was moderately predictive of higher role strain (39.9% of variance explained) but a poor predictor of career aspiration (3.8% of variance explained). Lower mental health scores were predicted by high stress symptoms (27.9% of variance explained), low military career aspiration (4.1% of variance explained), high role strain (4.0% of variance explained), and being non-White (3.9% of variance explained). Aspiration for a military career was predicted by high perceived availability of military resources (16.8% of variance explained), low family of origin socioeconomic status (4.5% of variance explained), and better mental health status (3.3% of variance explained). Contrary to theoretical expectations, in this sample, motherhood was not a significant variable. Increased role strain, stress, and decreased health as well as decreased military career aspiration were evident in both groups and may have more to do with individual coping skills and other unmeasured resources. More research is needed to determine what nursing interventions are needed to best support both groups of women.

Forecasting Total Water Storage Changes in the Amazon basin using Atlantic and Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Linage, C.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Randerson, J. T.

2013-12-01

Floods and droughts frequently affect the Amazon River basin, impacting the transportation, river navigation, agriculture, economy and the carbon balance and biodiversity of several South American countries. The present study aims to find the main variables controlling the natural interannual variability of terrestrial water storage in the Amazon region and to propose a modeling framework for flood and drought forecasting. We propose three simple empirical models using a linear combination of lagged spatial averages of central Pacific (Niño 4 index) and tropical North Atlantic (TNAI index) sea surface temperatures (SST) to predict a decade-long record of 3°, monthly terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) observed by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. In addition to a SST forcing term, the models included a relaxation term to simulate the memory of water storage anomalies in response to external variability in forcing. Model parameters were spatially-variable and individually optimized for each 3° grid cell. We also investigated the evolution of the predictive capability of our models with increasing minimum lead times for TWSA forecasts. TNAI was the primary external forcing for the central and western regions of the southern Amazon (35% of variance explained with a 3-month forecast), whereas Niño 4 was dominant in the northeastern part of the basin (61% of variance explained with a 3-month forecast). Forcing the model with a combination of the two indices improved the fit significantly (p<0.05) for at least 64% of the grid cells, compared to models forced solely with Niño 4 or TNAI. The combined model was able to explain 43% of the variance in the Amazon basin as a whole with a 3-month lead time. While 66% of the observed variance was explained in the northeastern Amazon, only 39% of the variance was captured by the combined model in the central and western regions, suggesting that other, more local, forcing sources were important in these regions. The predictive capability of the combined model was monotonically degraded with increasing lead times. Degradation was smaller in the northeastern Amazon (where 49% of the variance was explained using a 8-month lead time versus 69% for a 1 month lead time) compared to the western and central regions of southern Amazon (where 22% of the variance was explained at 8 months versus 43% at 1 month). Our model may provide early warning information about flooding in the northeastern region of the Amazon basin, where floodplain areas are extensive and the sensitivity of floods to external SST forcing was shown to be high. This work also strengthens our understanding of the mechanisms regulating interannual variability in Amazon fires, as TWSA deficits may subsequently lead to atmospheric water vapor deficits and reduced cloudiness via water-limited evapotranspiration. Finally, this work helps to bridge the gap between the current GRACE mission and the follow-on gravity mission.

Associations among self-concept, verbal behaviors, and group climate early in the group counseling process.

PubMed

Jen Der Pan, Peter; Fan, Ai Chun; Bhat, Christine Suniti; Chang, Shona Shih Hua

2012-12-01

In this study, relations among group members' self-concept, verbal behaviors, and group climate early in the group counseling process were assessed for college students who were randomly assigned to four counseling groups. Based on measures from the hill interaction matrix, it was observed that family, social, and action self-concepts, as well as engagement, avoidance, and conflict group climate, were correlated with several verbal behaviors. Silence and quadrant 4 (Q4), which consists of speculative and confrontative verbal behaviors at personal and relationship levels, significantly predicted and explained 43% of the variance in engagement group climate. Silence and Q3, comprised of conventional and assertive verbal behaviors at personal and relationship levels, and Q1, conventional and assertive verbal behaviors at topic and group levels, explained 66% of variance in avoidance climate. Q4 and Silence explained 33% of conflict climate variance early in the group sessions. Implications for research and counseling practice are suggested.

A novel observational test of momentum balance in a solar flare

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Canfield, Richard C.; Metcalf, Thomas R.; Strong, Keith T.; Zarro, Dominic M.

1987-01-01

A unique combination of SMM X-ray spectra and Sacramento Peak Observatory H-alpha imaging spectra has been used, for the first time, to measure and compare momentum values of upflowing and downflowing plasmas during the impulsive phase of a solar flare. The well-known blue asymmetry of X-ray spectral lines, indicative of upflow, was observed in the coronal Ca XIX line. The red asymmetry of H-alpha line profiles, indicative of downflow, was simultaneously observed in bright H-alpha kernels. It is found that, to within observational uncertainty, the momentum transported by the upflowing X-ray plasma was the same as that of the downflowing H-alpha material. Of the several physical mechanisms advanced to explain the observed blue asymmetry of X-ray lines, only explosive chromospheric evaporation predicts oppositely directed momenta of equal magnitude.

Strong regularities in world wide web surfing

PubMed

Huberman; Pirolli; Pitkow; Lukose

1998-04-03

One of the most common modes of accessing information in the World Wide Web is surfing from one document to another along hyperlinks. Several large empirical studies have revealed common patterns of surfing behavior. A model that assumes that users make a sequence of decisions to proceed to another page, continuing as long as the value of the current page exceeds some threshold, yields the probability distribution for the number of pages that a user visits within a given Web site. This model was verified by comparing its predictions with detailed measurements of surfing patterns. The model also explains the observed Zipf-like distributions in page hits observed at Web sites.

Lessons Learned from AIRS: Improved Determination of Surface and Atmospheric Temperatures Using Only Shortwave AIRS Channels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel

2011-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the use of shortwave channels available to the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) to improve the determination of surface and atmospheric temperatures. The AIRS instrument is compared with the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on-board the MetOp-A satellite. The objectives of the AIRS/AMSU were to (1) provide real time observations to improve numerical weather prediction via data assimilation, (2) Provide observations to measure and explain interannual variability and trends and (3) Use of AIRS product error estimates allows for QC optimized for each application. Successive versions in the AIRS retrieval methodology have shown significant improvement.

Neurobiological mechanisms underlying the blocking effect in aversive learning.

PubMed

Eippert, Falk; Gamer, Matthias; Büchel, Christian

2012-09-19

Current theories of classical conditioning assume that learning depends on the predictive relationship between events, not just on their temporal contiguity. Here we employ the classic experiment substantiating this reasoning-the blocking paradigm-in combination with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate whether human amygdala responses in aversive learning conform to these assumptions. In accordance with blocking, we demonstrate that significantly stronger behavioral and amygdala responses are evoked by conditioned stimuli that are predictive of the unconditioned stimulus than by conditioned stimuli that have received the same pairing with the unconditioned stimulus, yet have no predictive value. When studying the development of this effect, we not only observed that it was related to the strength of previous conditioned responses, but also that predictive compared with nonpredictive conditioned stimuli received more overt attention, as measured by fMRI-concurrent eye tracking, and that this went along with enhanced amygdala responses. We furthermore observed that prefrontal regions play a role in the development of the blocking effect: ventromedial prefrontal cortex (subgenual anterior cingulate) only exhibited responses when conditioned stimuli had to be established as nonpredictive for an outcome, whereas dorsolateral prefrontal cortex also showed responses when conditioned stimuli had to be established as predictive. Most importantly, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex connectivity to amygdala flexibly switched between positive and negative coupling, depending on the requirements posed by predictive relationships. Together, our findings highlight the role of predictive value in explaining amygdala responses and identify mechanisms that shape these responses in human fear conditioning.

Coal workers' pneumoconiosis in the United States: regional differences 40 years after implementation of the 1969 Federal Coal Mine Health and Safety Act.

PubMed

Suarthana, Eva; Laney, A Scott; Storey, Eileen; Hale, Janet M; Attfield, Michael D

2011-12-01

To assess whether the recent increases in the prevalence of coal workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP) in the USA reflect increased measured exposures over recent decades, and to identify other potential causative factors. The observed CWP prevalence was calculated for 12,408 underground coal miner participants in the Coal Workers' Health Surveillance Program for the period 2005-2009, stratified by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) geographical districts. The predicted prevalence was estimated using a published exposure-response model from a large epidemiological study among U.S. coal miners using dust exposure, tenure, miner's age and coal rank as predictors. χ2 Testing was performed to compare the observed versus predicted CWP prevalence. Observed prevalence was significantly higher than predicted prevalence in MSHA districts 4-7 (central Appalachian region) (10.1% vs. 4.2%; prevalence ratio (PR) 2.4; p<0.001) and significantly lower than predicted in other regions (1.6% vs. 3.6%; PR 0.4; p<0.001). The central Appalachian region had a significantly older workforce with greater mining tenure, a lower proportion of mines with 200 or more employees, and lower seam heights. Significant lower average compliance dust concentrations were reported for this region. The observed CWP prevalence substantially exceeded predicted levels in central Appalachia. However, the increased prevalence was not explained by the measured levels of dust exposures. Likely contributing factors include mine size and low seam mining, which may be associated with higher exposure to silica. Further study is needed to characterise the responsible factors for the elevated CWP rates in central Appalachia.

Mixture toxicity of wood preservative products in the fish embryo toxicity test.

PubMed

Coors, Anja; Dobrick, Jan; Möder, Monika; Kehrer, Anja

2012-06-01

Wood preservative products are used globally to protect wood from fungal decay and insects. We investigated the aquatic toxicity of five commercial wood preservative products, the biocidal active substances and some formulation additives contained therein, as well as six generic binary mixtures of the active substances in the fish embryo toxicity test (FET). Median lethal concentrations (LC50) of the single substances, the mixtures, and the products were estimated from concentration-response curves and corrected for concentrations measured in the test medium. The comparison of the experimentally observed mixture toxicity with the toxicity predicted by the concept of concentration addition (CA) showed less than twofold deviation for all binary mixtures of the active substances and for three of the biocidal products. A more than 60-fold underestimation of the toxicity of the fourth product by the CA prediction was detected and could be explained fully by the toxicity of one formulation additive, which had been labeled as a hazardous substance. The reason for the 4.6-fold underestimation of toxicity of the fifth product could not be explained unambiguously. Overall, the FET was found to be a suitable screening tool to verify whether the toxicity of formulated wood preservatives can reliably be predicted by CA. Applied as a quick and simple nonanimal screening test, the FET may support approaches of applying component-based mixture toxicity predictions within the environmental risk assessment of biocidal products, which is required according to European regulations. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Population Dynamics of a Salmonella Lytic Phage and Its Host: Implications of the Host Bacterial Growth Rate in Modelling

PubMed Central

Santos, Sílvio B.; Carvalho, Carla; Azeredo, Joana; Ferreira, Eugénio C.

2014-01-01

The prevalence and impact of bacteriophages in the ecology of bacterial communities coupled with their ability to control pathogens turn essential to understand and predict the dynamics between phage and bacteria populations. To achieve this knowledge it is essential to develop mathematical models able to explain and simulate the population dynamics of phage and bacteria. We have developed an unstructured mathematical model using delay-differential equations to predict the interactions between a broad-host-range Salmonella phage and its pathogenic host. The model takes into consideration the main biological parameters that rule phage-bacteria interactions likewise the adsorption rate, latent period, burst size, bacterial growth rate, and substrate uptake rate, among others. The experimental validation of the model was performed with data from phage-interaction studies in a 5 L bioreactor. The key and innovative aspect of the model was the introduction of variations in the latent period and adsorption rate values that are considered as constants in previous developed models. By modelling the latent period as a normal distribution of values and the adsorption rate as a function of the bacterial growth rate it was possible to accurately predict the behaviour of the phage-bacteria population. The model was shown to predict simulated data with a good agreement with the experimental observations and explains how a lytic phage and its host bacteria are able to coexist. PMID:25051248

Timing of birth: Parsimony favors strategic over dysregulated parturition.

PubMed

Catalano, Ralph; Goodman, Julia; Margerison-Zilko, Claire; Falconi, April; Gemmill, Alison; Karasek, Deborah; Anderson, Elizabeth

2016-01-01

The "dysregulated parturition" narrative posits that the human stress response includes a cascade of hormones that "dysregulates" and accelerates parturition but provides questionable utility as a guide to understand or prevent preterm birth. We offer and test a "strategic parturition" narrative that not only predicts the excess preterm births that dysregulated parturition predicts but also makes testable, sex-specific predictions of the effect of stressful environments on the timing of birth among term pregnancies. We use interrupted time-series modeling of cohorts conceived over 101 months to test for lengthening of early term male gestations in stressed population. We use an event widely reported to have stressed Americans and to have increased the incidence of low birth weight and fetal death across the country-the terrorist attacks of September 2001. We tested the hypothesis that the odds of male infants conceived in December 2000 (i.e., at term in September 2001) being born early as opposed to full term fell below the value expected from those conceived in the 50 prior and 50 following months. We found that term male gestations exposed to the terrorist attacks exhibited 4% lower likelihood of early, as opposed to full or late, term birth. Strategic parturition explains observed data for which the dysregulated parturition narrative offers no prediction-the timing of birth among gestations stressed at term. Our narrative may help explain why findings from studies examining associations between population- and/or individual-level stressors and preterm birth are generally mixed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Extended X-Ray Emission around Quasars at Intermediate Redshift

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiore, Fabrizio

1998-01-01

We compare the optical to soft X-ray spectral energy distribution (SED) of a sample of bright low-redshift (0.048 less than z less than 0.155), radio-quiet quasars, with a range of thermal models which have been proposed to explain the optical/UV/soft X-ray quasar emission: (a) optically thin emission from an ionized plasma, (b) optically thick emission from the innermost regions of an accretion disk in Schwarzschild and Kerr geometries. We presented ROSAT PSPC observations of these quasars in an earlier paper. Here our goals are to search for the signature of thermal emission in the quasar SED, and to investigate whether a single component is dominating at different frequencies. We find that isothermal optically thin plasma models can explain the observed soft X-ray color and the mean OUV color. However, they predict an ultraviolet (1325 Angstrom) luminosity a factor of 3 to 10 times lower than observed. Pure disk models, even in a Kerr geometry, do not have the necessary flexibility to account for the observed OUV and soft X-ray luminosities. Additional components are needed both in the optical and in the soft X-rays (e.g. a hot corona can explain the soft X-ray color). The most constrained modification of pure disk models, is the assumption of an underlying power law component extending from the infrared (3 micrometers) to the X-ray. This can explain both the OUV and soft X-ray colors and luminosities and does not exceed the 3 micrometers luminosity, where a contribution from hot dust is likely to be important. We also discuss the possibility that the observed soft X-ray color and luminosity are dominated by reflection from the ionized surface of the accretion disk. While modifications of both optically thin plasma models and pure disk models might account for the observed SED, we do not find any strong evidence that the OUV bump and soft X-ray emission are one and the same component. Likewise, we do not find any strong argument which definitely argues in favor of thermal models.

Biomechanics of ant adhesive pads: frictional forces are rate- and temperature-dependent.

PubMed

Federle, Walter; Baumgartner, Werner; Hölldobler, Bert

2004-01-01

Tarsal adhesive pads enable insects to hold on to smooth plant surfaces. Using a centrifuge technique, we tested whether a "wet adhesion" model of a thin film of liquid secreted between the pad and the surface can explain adhesive and frictional forces in Asian Weaver ants (Oecophylla smaragdina). When forces are acting parallel to the surface, pads in contact with the surface can slide smoothly. Force per unit pad contact area was strongly dependent on sliding velocity and temperature. Seemingly consistent with the effect of a thin liquid film in the contact zone, (1) frictional force linearly increased with sliding velocity, (2) the increment was greater at lower temperatures and (3) no temperature dependence was detected for low-rate perpendicular detachment forces. However, we observed a strong, temperature-independent static friction that was inconsistent with a fully lubricated contact. Static friction was too large to be explained by the contribution of other (sclerotized) body parts. Moreover, the rate-specific increase of shear stress strongly exceeded predictions derived from estimates of the adhesive liquid film's thickness and viscosity. Both lines of evidence indicate that the adhesive secretion alone is insufficient to explain the observed forces and that direct interaction of the soft pad cuticle with the surface ("rubber friction") is involved.

Public understanding of cyclone warning in India: Can wind be predicted?

PubMed

Dash, Biswanath

2015-11-01

In spite of meteorological warning, many human lives are lost every year to cyclone mainly because vulnerable populations were not evacuated on time to a safe shelter as per recommendation. It raises several questions, most prominently what explains people's behaviour in the face of such danger from a cyclonic storm? How do people view meteorological advisories issued for cyclone and what role they play in defining the threat? What shapes public response during such situation? This article based on an ethnographic study carried out in coastal state of Odisha, India, argues that local public recognising inherent limitations of meteorological warning, fall back on their own system of observation and forecasting. Not only are the contents of cyclone warning understood, its limitations are accommodated and explained. © The Author(s) 2014.

Theory of Planned Behavior explains gender difference in fruit and vegetable consumption.

PubMed

Emanuel, Amber S; McCully, Scout N; Gallagher, Kristel M; Updegraff, John A

2012-12-01

A gender difference in fruit and vegetable intake (FVI) is widely documented, but not well understood. Using data from the National Cancer Institute's Food Attitudes and Behavior Survey, we assessed the extent to which gender differences in FVI are attributable to gender differences in constructs from the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Females reported more favorable attitudes and greater perceived behavior control regarding FVI than males, and these beliefs mediated the observed gender difference. Males reported greater perceived norms for FVI, but norms did not predict FVI. Gender did not moderate the influence of TPB constructs on FVI. Thus, TPB constructs substantially explained the gender difference. Interventions targeted toward adult males may benefit by promoting favorable attitudes and perceived behavioral control over FVI. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

First Optical Observations of Interhemispheric Electron Reflections Within Pulsating Aurora

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samara, M.; Michell, R. G.; Khazanov, G. V.

2017-01-01

A case study of a pulsating auroral event imaged optically at high time resolution presents direct observational evidence in agreement with the interhemispheric electron bouncing predicted by the Super Thermal Electron Transport model. Pulsation-on times are identified and subsequent equally spaced fainter pulsations are also noted and can be explained by a portion/percentage of the primary precipitating electrons reflecting upward from the ionosphere, traveling to the opposite hemisphere and reflecting upward again. The high time resolution of these data, combined with the short duration of the pulsation-on time (approx. 1 s) and the relatively long spacing between pulsations (approx. 6 to 9 s) made it possible to observe the faint optical pulses caused by the reflected electrons coming from the opposite hemisphere.

Ozone depletion, greenhouse gases, and climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mooney, Harold A.; Baker, D. James, Jr.; Bretherton, Francis P.; Burke, Kevin C.; Clark, William C.; Davis, Margaret B.; Dickinson, Robert E.; Imbrie, John; Malone, Thomas F.; Mcelroy, Michael B.

1989-01-01

This symposium was organized to study the unusual convergence of a number of observations, both short and long term that defy an integrated explanation. Of particular importance are surface temperature observations and observations of upper atmospheric temperatures, which have declined significantly in parts of the stratosphere. There has also been a dramatic decline in ozone concentration over Antarctica that was not predicted. Significant changes in precipitation that seem to be latitude dependent have occurred. There has been a threefold increase in methane in the last 100 years; this is a problem because a source does not appear to exist for methane of the right isotopic composition to explain the increase. These and other meteorological global climate changes are examined in detail.

Life-history and habitat features influence the within-river genetic structure of Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Vähä, Juha-Pekka; Erkinaro, Jaakko; Niemelä, Eero; Primmer, Craig R

2007-07-01

Defining populations and identifying ecological and life-history characteristics affecting genetic structure is important for understanding species biology and hence, for managing threatened or endangered species or populations. In this study, populations of the world's largest indigenous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) stock were first inferred using model-based clustering methods, following which life-history and habitat variables best predicting the genetic diversity of populations were identified. This study revealed that natal homing of Atlantic salmon within the Teno River system is accurate at least to the tributary level. Generally, defining populations by main tributaries was observed to be a reasonable approach in this large river system, whereas in the mainstem of the river, the number of inferred populations was fewer than the number of distinct sampling sites. Mainstem and headwater populations were genetically more diverse and less diverged, while each tributary fostered a distinct population with high genetic differentiation and lower genetic diversity. Population structure and variation in genetic diversity among populations were poorly explained by geographical distance. In contrast, age-structure, as estimated by the proportion of multisea-winter spawners, was the most predictive variable in explaining the variation in the genetic diversity of the populations. This observation, being in agreement with theoretical predictions, emphasizes the essence of large multisea-winter females in maintaining the genetic diversity of populations. In addition, the unique genetic diversity of populations, as estimated by private allele richness, was affected by the ease of accessibility of a site, with more difficult to access sites having lower unique genetic diversity. Our results show that despite this species' high capacity for migration, tributaries foster relatively closed populations with little gene flow which will be important to consider when developing management strategies for the system.

Abnormal Striatal BOLD Responses to Reward Anticipation and Reward Delivery in ADHD

PubMed Central

Furukawa, Emi; Bado, Patricia; Tripp, Gail; Mattos, Paulo; Wickens, Jeff R.; Bramati, Ivanei E.; Alsop, Brent; Ferreira, Fernanda Meireles; Lima, Debora; Tovar-Moll, Fernanda; Sergeant, Joseph A.; Moll, Jorge

2014-01-01

Altered reward processing has been proposed to contribute to the symptoms of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The neurobiological mechanism underlying this alteration remains unclear. We hypothesize that the transfer of dopamine release from reward to reward-predicting cues, as normally observed in animal studies, may be deficient in ADHD. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) was used to investigate striatal responses to reward-predicting cues and reward delivery in a classical conditioning paradigm. Data from 14 high-functioning and stimulant-naïve young adults with elevated lifetime symptoms of ADHD (8 males, 6 females) and 15 well-matched controls (8 males, 7 females) were included in the analyses. During reward anticipation, increased blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) responses in the right ventral and left dorsal striatum were observed in controls, but not in the ADHD group. The opposite pattern was observed in response to reward delivery; the ADHD group demonstrated significantly greater BOLD responses in the ventral striatum bilaterally and the left dorsal striatum relative to controls. In the ADHD group, the number of current hyperactivity/impulsivity symptoms was inversely related to ventral striatal responses during reward anticipation and positively associated with responses to reward. The BOLD response patterns observed in the striatum are consistent with impaired predictive dopamine signaling in ADHD, which may explain altered reward-contingent behaviors and symptoms of ADHD. PMID:24586543

Modeling chlorophyll-a and dissolved oxygen concentration in tropical floodplain lakes (Paraná River, Brazil).

PubMed

Rocha, R R A; Thomaz, S M; Carvalho, P; Gomes, L C

2009-06-01

The need for prediction is widely recognized in limnology. In this study, data from 25 lakes of the Upper Paraná River floodplain were used to build models to predict chlorophyll-a and dissolved oxygen concentrations. Akaike's information criterion (AIC) was used as a criterion for model selection. Models were validated with independent data obtained in the same lakes in 2001. Predictor variables that significantly explained chlorophyll-a concentration were pH, electrical conductivity, total seston (positive correlation) and nitrate (negative correlation). This model explained 52% of chlorophyll variability. Variables that significantly explained dissolved oxygen concentration were pH, lake area and nitrate (all positive correlations); water temperature and electrical conductivity were negatively correlated with oxygen. This model explained 54% of oxygen variability. Validation with independent data showed that both models had the potential to predict algal biomass and dissolved oxygen concentration in these lakes. These findings suggest that multiple regression models are valuable and practical tools for understanding the dynamics of ecosystems and that predictive limnology may still be considered a powerful approach in aquatic ecology.

Multiple model analysis with discriminatory data collection (MMA-DDC): A new method for improving measurement selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kikuchi, C.; Ferre, P. A.; Vrugt, J. A.

2011-12-01

Hydrologic models are developed, tested, and refined based on the ability of those models to explain available hydrologic data. The optimization of model performance based upon mismatch between model outputs and real world observations has been extensively studied. However, identification of plausible models is sensitive not only to the models themselves - including model structure and model parameters - but also to the location, timing, type, and number of observations used in model calibration. Therefore, careful selection of hydrologic observations has the potential to significantly improve the performance of hydrologic models. In this research, we seek to reduce prediction uncertainty through optimization of the data collection process. A new tool - multiple model analysis with discriminatory data collection (MMA-DDC) - was developed to address this challenge. In this approach, multiple hydrologic models are developed and treated as competing hypotheses. Potential new data are then evaluated on their ability to discriminate between competing hypotheses. MMA-DDC is well-suited for use in recursive mode, in which new observations are continuously used in the optimization of subsequent observations. This new approach was applied to a synthetic solute transport experiment, in which ranges of parameter values constitute the multiple hydrologic models, and model predictions are calculated using likelihood-weighted model averaging. MMA-DDC was used to determine the optimal location, timing, number, and type of new observations. From comparison with an exhaustive search of all possible observation sequences, we find that MMA-DDC consistently selects observations which lead to the highest reduction in model prediction uncertainty. We conclude that using MMA-DDC to evaluate potential observations may significantly improve the performance of hydrologic models while reducing the cost associated with collecting new data.

Drought sensitivity predicts habitat size sensitivity in an aquatic ecosystem.

PubMed

Amundrud, Sarah L; Srivastava, Diane S

2015-07-01

Species and trophic richness often increase with habitat size. Although many ecological processes have been evoked to explain both patterns, the environmental stress associated with small habitats has rarely been considered. We propose that larger habitats may be species rich simply because their environmental conditions are within the fundamental niche of more species; larger habitats may also have more trophic levels if traits of predators render them vulnerable to environmental stress. We test this hypothesis using the aquatic insect larvae in water-filled bromeliads. In bromeliads, the probability of desiccation is greatest in small plants. For the 10 most common bromeliad insect taxa, we ask whether differences in drought tolerance and regional abundances between taxa predict community and trophic composition over a gradient of bromeliad size. First, we used bromeliad survey data to calculate the mean habitat size of occurrence of each taxon. Comparing the observed mean habitat size of occurrence to that expected from random species assembly based on differences in their regional abundances allowed us to obtain habitat size sensitivity indices (as Z scores) for the various insect taxa. Second, we obtained drought sensitivity indices by subjecting individual insects to drought and measuring the effects on relative growth rates in a mesocosm experiment. We found that drought sensitivity strongly, predicts habitat size sensitivity in bromeliad insects. However, an increase in trophic richness with habitat size could not be explained by an increased sensitivity of predators to drought, but rather by sampling effects, as predators were rare compared to lower trophic levels. This finding suggests that physiological tolerance to environmental stress can be relevant in explaining the universal increase in species with habitat size.

One wouldn't expect an expert bowler to hit only two pins: Hierarchical predictive processing of agent-caused events.

PubMed

Heil, Lieke; Kwisthout, Johan; van Pelt, Stan; van Rooij, Iris; Bekkering, Harold

2018-01-01

Evidence is accumulating that our brains process incoming information using top-down predictions. If lower level representations are correctly predicted by higher level representations, this enhances processing. However, if they are incorrectly predicted, additional processing is required at higher levels to "explain away" prediction errors. Here, we explored the potential nature of the models generating such predictions. More specifically, we investigated whether a predictive processing model with a hierarchical structure and causal relations between its levels is able to account for the processing of agent-caused events. In Experiment 1, participants watched animated movies of "experienced" and "novice" bowlers. The results are in line with the idea that prediction errors at a lower level of the hierarchy (i.e., the outcome of how many pins fell down) slow down reporting of information at a higher level (i.e., which agent was throwing the ball). Experiments 2 and 3 suggest that this effect is specific to situations in which the predictor is causally related to the outcome. Overall, the study supports the idea that a hierarchical predictive processing model can account for the processing of observed action outcomes and that the predictions involved are specific to cases where action outcomes can be predicted based on causal knowledge.

An Unusual Transient in the Extremely Metal-Poor Galaxy SDSS J094332.35+332657.6 (Leoncino Dwarf)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filho, Mercedes E.; Sánchez Almeida, J.

2018-05-01

We have serendipitously discovered that Leoncino Dwarf, an ultra-faint, low-metallicity record-holder dwarf galaxy, may have hosted a transient source, and possibly exhibited a change in morphology, a shift in the center of brightness, and peak variability of the main (host) source in images taken approximately 40 yr apart; it is highly likely that these phenomena are related. Scenarios involving a Solar System object, a stellar cluster, dust enshrouding, and accretion variability have been considered, and discarded, as the origin of the transient. Although a combination of time-varying strong and weak lensing effects, induced by an intermediate mass black hole (104 - 5 × 105 M⊙) moving within the Milky Way halo (0.1 - 4 kpc), can conceivably explain all of the observed variable galaxy properties, it is statistically highly unlikely according to current theoretical predictions, and, therefore, also discarded. A cataclysmic event such as a supernova/hypernova could have occurred, as long as the event was observed towards the later/late-stage descent of the light curve, but this scenario fails to explain the absence of a post-explosion source and/or host HII region in recent optical images. An episode related to the giant eruption of a luminous blue variable star, a stellar merger or a nova, observed at, or near, peak magnitude may explain the transient source and possibly the change in morphology/center of brightness, but can not justify the main source peak variability, unless stellar variability is evoked.

On the angle and wavelength dependencies of the radar backscatter from the icy Galilean moons of Jupiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gurrola, Eric M.; Eshleman, Von R.

1990-01-01

This paper reports new developments in the buried crater model that has proved successful in explaining the anomalous strengths and polarizations of the radar echoes from the icy Galilean moons of Jupiter (Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto). The theory is extended to make predictions of the radar cross sections at all points on the surface of the moon, to compute the shape and strength of the power spectra, and to model a wavelength dependence that has been observed.

Ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation, microstructure, and mechanical property interrelations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vary, A.

1984-01-01

Ultrasonic techniques for mechanical property characterizations are reviewed and conceptual models are advanced for explaining and interpreting the empirically based results. At present, the technology is generally empirically based and is emerging from the research laboratory. Advancement of the technology will require establishment of theoretical foundations for the experimentally observed interrelations among ultrasonic measurements, mechanical properties, and microstructure. Conceptual models are applied to ultrasonic assessment of fracture toughness to illustrate an approach for predicting correlations found among ultrasonic measurements, microstructure, and mechanical properties.

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics (in Geology)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermeesch, Pieter

2009-11-01

According to Karl Popper's epistemology of critical rationalism, scientists should formulate falsifiable hypotheses rather than produce ad hoc answers to empirical observations. In other words, we should predict and test rather than merely explain [Popper, 1959]. Sometimes, statistical tests such as chi-square, t, or Kolmogorov-Smirnov are used to make deductions more “objective.” Such tests are used in a wide range of geological subdisciplines [see Reimann and Filzmoser, 2000; Anderson and Johnson, 1999; Lørup et al., 1998; Sircombe and Hazelton, 2004].

Narrowband supercontinuum control using phase shaping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austin, Dane R.; Bolger, Jeremy A.; de Sterke, C. Martijn; Eggleton, Benjamin J.; Brown, Thomas G.

2006-12-01

We study theoretically, numerically and experimentally the effect of self-phase modulation of ultrashort pulses with spectrally narrow phase features. We show that spectral enhancement and depletion is caused by changing the relative phase between the initial field and the nonlinearly generated components. Our theoretical results explain observations of supercontinuum enhancement by fiber Bragg gratings, and predict similar enhancements for spectrally shaped pulses in uniform fiber. As proof of principle, we demonstrate this effect in the laboratory using a femtosecond pulse shaper.

Determining vehicle operating speed and lateral position along horizontal curves using linear mixed-effects models.

PubMed

Fitzsimmons, Eric J; Kvam, Vanessa; Souleyrette, Reginald R; Nambisan, Shashi S; Bonett, Douglas G

2013-01-01

Despite recent improvements in highway safety in the United States, serious crashes on curves remain a significant problem. To assist in better understanding causal factors leading to this problem, this article presents and demonstrates a methodology for collection and analysis of vehicle trajectory and speed data for rural and urban curves using Z-configured road tubes. For a large number of vehicle observations at 2 horizontal curves located in Dexter and Ames, Iowa, the article develops vehicle speed and lateral position prediction models for multiple points along these curves. Linear mixed-effects models were used to predict vehicle lateral position and speed along the curves as explained by operational, vehicle, and environmental variables. Behavior was visually represented for an identified subset of "risky" drivers. Linear mixed-effect regression models provided the means to predict vehicle speed and lateral position while taking into account repeated observations of the same vehicle along horizontal curves. Speed and lateral position at point of entry were observed to influence trajectory and speed profiles. Rural horizontal curve site models are presented that indicate that the following variables were significant and influenced both vehicle speed and lateral position: time of day, direction of travel (inside or outside lane), and type of vehicle.

Temporal Characteristics and Energy Deposition of Pulsating Auroral Patches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Humberset, B. K.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Samara, M.; Michell, R. G.; Mann, I. R.

2016-01-01

We present a careful statistical analysis of pulsating aurora (PA) using all-sky green line (557.7 nm) images obtained at 3.3 Hz. Six well-defined individual PA patches are identified and extracted using a contouring technique. Quantitative parameters such as the patch duration (on-time and off-time), peak intensity, and integrated intensity are determined for each patch and each pulsation. The resulting characteristics serve as strict observational constraints that any of the many competing theories attempting to explain PA must predict. The purpose of this paper is to determine the characteristics of PA patches in order to provide better observational constraints on the suggested mechanisms. All aspects of the temporal behavior of the individual patches appear to be erratic. Historically, PA has been defined very loosely and we argue that the use of the term pulsating is inappropriate since our findings and other published results are not regularly periodic and thus a more appropriate term may be fluctuating aurora. Further, we find that the observational constraints do not fit well with the flow cyclotron maser theory, which in particular is suggested to create PA patches. There is no clear candidate of the suggested mechanisms and drivers to explain the observational constraints set by the PA patches in a satisfactory manner.

Understanding and Observing Subglacial Friction Using Seismology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, V. C.

2017-12-01

Glaciology began with a focus on understanding basic mechanical processes and producing physical models that could explain the principal observations. Recently, however, more attention has been paid to the wealth of recent observations, with many modeling efforts relying on data assimilation and empirical scalings, rather than being based on first-principles physics. Notably, ice sheet models commonly assume that subglacial friction is characterized by a "slipperiness" coefficient that is determined by inverting surface velocity observations. Predictions are usually then made by assuming these slipperiness coefficients are spatially and temporally fixed. However, this is only valid if slipperiness is an unchanging material property of the bed and, despite decades of work on subglacial friction, it has remained unclear how to best account for such subglacial physics in ice sheet models. Here, we describe how basic seismological concepts and observations can be used to improve our understanding and determination of subglacial friction. First, we discuss how standard models of granular friction can and should be used in basal friction laws for marine ice sheets, where very low effective pressures exist. We show that under realistic West Antarctic Ice Sheet conditions, standard Coulomb friction should apply in a relatively narrow zone near the grounding line and that this should transition abruptly as one moves inland to a different, perhaps Weertman-style, dependence of subglacial stress on velocity. We show that this subglacial friction law predicts significantly different ice sheet behavior even as compared with other friction laws that include effective pressure. Secondly, we explain how seismological observations of water flow noise and basal icequakes constrain subglacial physics in important ways. Seismically observed water flow noise can provide constraints on water pressures and channel sizes and geometry, leading to important data on subglacial friction. Basal icequake mechanisms also provide unique constraints on subglacial stress state as well as variations in water pressures. Together, the use of standard seismological concepts and new observations thus promises to provide new constraints on subglacial mechanics and focus attention back on the basic physical processes involved.

Optical methods in nano-biotechnology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruno, Luigi; Gentile, Francesco

2016-01-01

A scientific theory is not a mathematical paradigm. It is a framework that explains natural facts and may predict future observations. A scientific theory may be modified, improved, or rejected. Science is less a collection of theories and more the process that brings either to deny some hypothesis, maintain or accept somehow universal beliefs (or disbeliefs), and create new models that may improve or replace precedent theories. This process cannot be entrusted to common sense, personal experiences or anecdotes (many precepts in physics are indeed counterintuitive), but on a rigorous design, observation and rational to statistical analysis of new experiments. Scientific results are always provisional: scientists rarely proclaim an absolute truth or absolute certainty. Uncertainty is inevitable at the frontiers of knowledge. Notably, this is the definition of the scientific method and what we have written in the above echoes the opinion Marcia McNutt who is the Editor of Science 'Science is a method for deciding whether what we choose to believe has a basis in the laws of nature or not'. A new discovery, a new theory that explains that discovery and the scientific method itself need observations, verifications and are susceptible of falsification.

Modeling of Powder Bed Manufacturing Defects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mindt, H.-W.; Desmaison, O.; Megahed, M.; Peralta, A.; Neumann, J.

2018-01-01

Powder bed additive manufacturing offers unmatched capabilities. The deposition resolution achieved is extremely high enabling the production of innovative functional products and materials. Achieving the desired final quality is, however, hampered by many potential defects that have to be managed in due course of the manufacturing process. Defects observed in products manufactured via powder bed fusion have been studied experimentally. In this effort we have relied on experiments reported in the literature and—when experimental data were not sufficient—we have performed additional experiments providing an extended foundation for defect analysis. There is large interest in reducing the effort and cost of additive manufacturing process qualification and certification using integrated computational material engineering. A prerequisite is, however, that numerical methods can indeed capture defects. A multiscale multiphysics platform is developed and applied to predict and explain the origin of several defects that have been observed experimentally during laser-based powder bed fusion processes. The models utilized are briefly introduced. The ability of the models to capture the observed defects is verified. The root cause of the defects is explained by analyzing the numerical results thus confirming the ability of numerical methods to provide a foundation for rapid process qualification.

A reanalysis of ozone on Mars from assimilation of SPICAM observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, James A.; Lewis, Stephen R.; Patel, Manish R.; Lefèvre, Franck

2018-03-01

We have assimilated for the first time SPICAM retrievals of total ozone into a Martian global circulation model to provide a global reanalysis of the ozone cycle. Disagreement in total ozone between model prediction and assimilation is observed between 45°S-10°S from LS = 135-180° and at northern polar (60°N-90°N) latitudes during northern fall (LS = 150-195°). Large percentage differences in total ozone at northern fall polar latitudes identified through the assimilation process are linked with excessive northward transport of water vapour west of Tharsis and over Arabia Terra. Modelling biases in water vapour can also explain the underestimation of total ozone between 45°S-10°S from LS = 135-180°. Heterogeneous uptake of odd hydrogen radicals are unable to explain the outstanding underestimation of northern polar total ozone in late northern fall. Assimilation of total ozone retrievals results in alterations of the modelled spatial distribution of ozone in the southern polar winter high altitude ozone layer. This illustrates the potential use of assimilation methods in constraining total ozone where SPICAM cannot observe, in a region where total ozone is especially important for potential investigations of the polar dynamics.

Drug disposition and modelling before and after gastric bypass: immediate and controlled-release metoprolol formulations.

PubMed

Gesquiere, Ina; Darwich, Adam S; Van der Schueren, Bart; de Hoon, Jan; Lannoo, Matthias; Matthys, Christophe; Rostami, Amin; Foulon, Veerle; Augustijns, Patrick

2015-11-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the disposition of metoprolol after oral administration of an immediate and controlled-release formulation before and after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery in the same individuals and to validate a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for predicting oral bioavailability following RYGB. A single-dose pharmacokinetic study of metoprolol tartrate 200 mg immediate release and controlled release was performed in 14 volunteers before and 6-8 months after RYGB. The observed data were compared with predicted results from the PBPK modelling and simulation of metoprolol tartrate immediate and controlled-release formulation before and after RYGB. After administration of metoprolol immediate and controlled release, no statistically significant difference in the observed area under the curve (AUC(0-24 h)) was shown, although a tendency towards an increased oral exposure could be observed as the AUC(0-24 h) was 32.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.36, 63.5] and 55.9% (95% CI 5.73, 106) higher following RYGB for the immediate and controlled-release formulation, respectively. This could be explained by surgery-related weight loss and a reduced presystemic biotransformation in the proximal gastrointestinal tract. The PBPK values predicted by modelling and simulation were similar to the observed data, confirming its validity. The disposition of metoprolol from an immediate-release and a controlled-release formulation was not significantly altered after RYGB; there was a tendency to an increase, which was also predicted by PBPK modelling and simulation. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

Drug disposition and modelling before and after gastric bypass: immediate and controlled-release metoprolol formulations

PubMed Central

Gesquiere, Ina; Darwich, Adam S; Van der Schueren, Bart; de Hoon, Jan; Lannoo, Matthias; Matthys, Christophe; Rostami, Amin; Foulon, Veerle; Augustijns, Patrick

2015-01-01

Aims The aim of the present study was to evaluate the disposition of metoprolol after oral administration of an immediate and controlled-release formulation before and after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery in the same individuals and to validate a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for predicting oral bioavailability following RYGB. Methods A single-dose pharmacokinetic study of metoprolol tartrate 200 mg immediate release and controlled release was performed in 14 volunteers before and 6–8 months after RYGB. The observed data were compared with predicted results from the PBPK modelling and simulation of metoprolol tartrate immediate and controlled-release formulation before and after RYGB. Results After administration of metoprolol immediate and controlled release, no statistically significant difference in the observed area under the curve (AUC0–24 h) was shown, although a tendency towards an increased oral exposure could be observed as the AUC0–24 h was 32.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.36, 63.5] and 55.9% (95% CI 5.73, 106) higher following RYGB for the immediate and controlled-release formulation, respectively. This could be explained by surgery-related weight loss and a reduced presystemic biotransformation in the proximal gastrointestinal tract. The PBPK values predicted by modelling and simulation were similar to the observed data, confirming its validity. Conclusions The disposition of metoprolol from an immediate-release and a controlled-release formulation was not significantly altered after RYGB; there was a tendency to an increase, which was also predicted by PBPK modelling and simulation. PMID:25917170

HOT PLASMA FROM SOLAR ACTIVE-REGION CORES: CONSTRAINTS FROM THE HINODE X-RAY TELESCOPE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmelz, J. T.; Christian, G. M.; Matheny, P. O., E-mail: jschmelz@usra.edu

2016-12-20

Mechanisms invoked to heat the solar corona to millions of degrees kelvin involve either magnetic waves or magnetic reconnections. Turbulence in the convection zone produces MHD waves, which travel upward and dissipate. Photospheric motions continuously build up magnetic energy, which is released through magnetic reconnection. In this paper, we concentrate on hot non-flaring plasma with temperatures of 5 MK <  T  < 10 MK because it is one of the few observables for which wave and reconnection models make different predictions. Wave models predict no (or little) hot plasma, whereas reconnection models predict it, although in amounts that are challenging to detectmore » with current instrumentation. We used data from the X-ray Telescope (XRT) and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). We requested a special XRT observing sequence, which cycled through the thickest XRT filter several times per hour so we could average these images and improve the signal-to-noise. We did differential emission measure (DEM) analysis using the time-averaged thick-filter data as well as all available channels from both the XRT and AIA for regions observed on 2014 December 11. Whereas our earlier work was only able to determine that plasma with a temperature greater than 5 MK was present , we are now able to find a well-constrained DEM distribution. We have therefore added a strong observational constraint that must be explained by any viable coronal heating model. Comparing state-of-the-art wave and reconnection model predictions, we can conclude that reconnection is heating the hot plasma in these active regions.« less

Development and validation of equations utilizing lamb vision system output to predict lamb carcass fabrication yields.

PubMed

Cunha, B C N; Belk, K E; Scanga, J A; LeValley, S B; Tatum, J D; Smith, G C

2004-07-01

This study was performed to validate previous equations and to develop and evaluate new regression equations for predicting lamb carcass fabrication yields using outputs from a lamb vision system-hot carcass component (LVS-HCC) and the lamb vision system-chilled carcass LM imaging component (LVS-CCC). Lamb carcasses (n = 149) were selected after slaughter, imaged hot using the LVS-HCC, and chilled for 24 to 48 h at -3 to 1 degrees C. Chilled carcasses yield grades (YG) were assigned on-line by USDA graders and by expert USDA grading supervisors with unlimited time and access to the carcasses. Before fabrication, carcasses were ribbed between the 12th and 13th ribs and imaged using the LVS-CCC. Carcasses were fabricated into bone-in subprimal/primal cuts. Yields calculated included 1) saleable meat yield (SMY); 2) subprimal yield (SPY); and 3) fat yield (FY). On-line (whole-number) USDA YG accounted for 59, 58, and 64%; expert (whole-number) USDA YG explained 59, 59, and 65%; and expert (nearest-tenth) USDA YG accounted for 60, 60, and 67% of the observed variation in SMY, SPY, and FY, respectively. The best prediction equation developed in this trial using LVS-HCC output and hot carcass weight as independent variables explained 68, 62, and 74% of the variation in SMY, SPY, and FY, respectively. Addition of output from LVS-CCC improved predictive accuracy of the equations; the combined output equations explained 72 and 66% of the variability in SMY and SPY, respectively. Accuracy and repeatability of measurement of LM area made with the LVS-CCC also was assessed, and results suggested that use of LVS-CCC provided reasonably accurate (R2 = 0.59) and highly repeatable (repeatability = 0.98) measurements of LM area. Compared with USDA YG, use of the dual-component lamb vision system to predict cut yields of lamb carcasses improved accuracy and precision, suggesting that this system could have an application as an objective means for pricing carcasses in a value-based marketing system.

The effect of providing feedback on the characteristics of student responses to a videotaped format for high school physics assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, Michael John

1997-12-01

The problem of science illiteracy has been well documented. The development of the critical thinking skills in science education are often sacrificed in favor of content coverage. Opportunities for critical thinking within a context of science have been recommended to promote science literacy (AAAS, 1993). One means of doing this is to have students make and explain predictions involving physical phenomena, observe feedback, and then revise the prediction. A videotaped assessment using this process served as the focus for this study. High school physics students were asked to predict and explain what would happen in situations involving optics. They were then given different feedback treatments. The purpose of this study was to: (a) examine the effect of providing feedback on the quality of responses in making both revisions and subsequent predictions, and (b) examine the relationship between content knowledge and qualitative performance. Sixty-four high ability students were separated into three treatment groups: no feedback (NF), visual feedback (F), and teacher-explained feedback (TE). These students responded to six items on the Optics Videotape Assessment and ten optics multiple choice items from the National Physics Exam (NPE). Their teachers had previously attended a professional development institute which emphasized the practice and philosophy of assessments like the Optics Assessment. The assessment responses were categorized by two raters who used a taxonomy that ranged from simple descriptions to complete explanations. NPE performance was compared using one-way ANOVA, Optics Assessment performance was compared using a chi-square test of homogeneity, and a point-biserial correlation was done to compare qualitative and quantitative performance. The study found that students were unable to use feedback to make a significant change in the quality of their responses, whether revision or subsequent prediction. There was no correlation between content knowledge and qualitative performance. It was concluded that for students to succeed on an assessment of this type, their classroom teachers must be given the time to implement the appropriate instruction. Instruction and assessment of this nature are crucial to the development of science literacy.

How Well Can We Predict Salmonid Spawning Habitat with LiDAR?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeiffer, A.; Finnegan, N. J.; Hayes, S.

2013-12-01

Suitable salmonid spawning habitat is, to a great extent, determined by physical, landscape driven characteristics such as channel morphology and grain size. Identifying reaches with high-quality spawning habitat is essential to restoration efforts in areas where salmonid species are endangered or threatened. While both predictions of suitable habitat and observations of utilized habitat are common in the literature, they are rarely combined. Here we exploit a unique combination of high-resolution LiDAR data and seven years of 387 individually surveyed Coho and Steelhead redds in Scott Creek, a 77 km2 un-glaciated coastal California drainage in the Santa Cruz Mountains, to both make and test predictions of spawning habitat. Using a threshold channel assumption, we predict grain size throughout Scott Creek via a shear stress model that incorporates channel width, instead of height, using Manning's equation (Snyder et al., 2013). Slope and drainage area are computed from a LiDAR-derived DEM, and channel width is calculated via hydraulic modeling. Our results for median grain size predictions closely match median grain sizes (D50) measured in the field, with the majority of sites having predicted D50's within a factor of two of the observed values, especially for reaches with D50 > 0.02m. This success suggests that the threshold model used to predict grain size is appropriate for un-glaciated alluvial channel systems. However, it appears that grain size alone is not a strong predictor of salmon spawning. Reaches with a high (>0.1m) average predicted D50 do have lower redd densities, as expected based on spawning gravel sizes in the literature. However, reaches with lower (<0.1m) predicted D50 have a wide range of redd densities, suggesting that reach-average grain size alone cannot explain spawning site selection in the finer-grained reaches of Scott Creek. We turn to analysis of bedform morphology in order to explain the variation in redd density in the low-slope, finer-grained reaches of Lower Scott Creek. Because spawning is strongly correlated with riffle locations, we use a LiDAR-derived longitudinal profile to predict where riffle habitat is located within the watershed. To accomplish this, we use previous studies that constrain pool-riffle habitat to slopes <1.5%, then use wavelet analysis of the longitudinal profile within these pool-riffle reaches to investigate the spacing of drops in water surface slope, with the goal of identifying reaches with high riffle density. Our slope-based predictions of pool-riffle morphology closely match the extent of pool-riffle reaches observed in the field. Average redd density in pool-riffle reaches is more than double the average redd density in reaches of other channel morphologies. Initial wavelet analysis suggests that riffle spacing may be longer in the lower reaches of Scott Creek and shorter in the high-redd density upper reaches, a finding that agrees with the hypothesis that spawning habitat is limited by riffle density. Our results suggest that high resolution topographic data can be successfully used to identify reaches of utilized spawning habitat based on grain size predictions and wavelet analysis of bedform spacing.

Model-Derived Dispersal Pathways from Multiple Source Populations Explain Variability of Invertebrate Larval Supply

PubMed Central

Domingues, Carla P.; Nolasco, Rita; Dubert, Jesus; Queiroga, Henrique

2012-01-01

Background Predicting the spatial and temporal patterns of marine larval dispersal and supply is a challenging task due to the small size of the larvae and the variability of oceanographic processes. Addressing this problem requires the use of novel approaches capable of capturing the inherent variability in the mechanisms involved. Methodology/Principal Findings In this study we test whether dispersal and connectivity patterns generated from a bio-physical model of larval dispersal of the crab Carcinus maenas, along the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, can predict the highly variable daily pattern of wind-driven larval supply to an estuary observed during the peak reproductive season (March–June) in 2006 and 2007. Cross-correlations between observed and predicted supply were significant (p<0.05) and strong, ranging from 0.34 to 0.81 at time lags of −6 to +5 d. Importantly, the model correctly predicted observed cross-shelf distributions (Pearson r = 0.82, p<0.001, and r = 0.79, p<0.01, in 2006 and 2007) and indicated that all supply events were comprised of larvae that had been retained within the inner shelf; larvae transported to the outer shelf and beyond never recruited. Estimated average dispersal distances ranged from 57 to 198 km and were only marginally affected by mortality. Conclusions/Significance The high degree of predicted demographic connectivity over relatively large geographic scales is consistent with the lack of genetic structuring in C. maenas along the Iberian Peninsula. These findings indicate that the dynamic nature of larval dispersal can be captured by mechanistic biophysical models, which can be used to provide meaningful predictions of the patterns and causes of fine-scale variability in larval supply to marine populations. PMID:22558225

Real-time forecasting at weekly timescales of the SST and SLA of the Ligurian Sea with a satellite-based ocean forecasting (SOFT) system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ÁLvarez, A.; Orfila, A.; Tintoré, J.

2004-03-01

Satellites are the only systems able to provide continuous information on the spatiotemporal variability of vast areas of the ocean. Relatively long-term time series of satellite data are nowadays available. These spatiotemporal time series of satellite observations can be employed to build empirical models, called satellite-based ocean forecasting (SOFT) systems, to forecast certain aspects of future ocean states. SOFT systems can predict satellite-observed fields at different timescales. The forecast skill of SOFT systems forecasting the sea surface temperature (SST) at monthly timescales has been extensively explored in previous works. In this work we study the performance of two SOFT systems forecasting, respectively, the SST and sea level anomaly (SLA) at weekly timescales, that is, providing forecasts of the weekly averaged SST and SLA fields with 1 week in advance. The SOFT systems were implemented in the Ligurian Sea (Western Mediterranean Sea). Predictions from the SOFT systems are compared with observations and with the predictions obtained from persistence models. Results indicate that the SOFT system forecasting the SST field is always superior in terms of predictability to persistence. Minimum prediction errors in the SST are obtained during winter and spring seasons. On the other hand, the biggest differences between the performance of SOFT and persistence models are found during summer and autumn. These changes in the predictability are explained on the basis of the particular variability of the SST field in the Ligurian Sea. Concerning the SLA field, no improvements with respect to persistence have been found for the SOFT system forecasting the SLA field.

Retrocausation Or Extant Indefinite Reality?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houtkooper, Joop M.

2006-10-01

The possibility of retrocausation has been considered to explain the occurrence of anomalous phenomena in which the ostensible effects are preceded by their causes. A scrutiny of both experimental methodology and the experimental data is called for. A review of experimental data reveals the existence of such effects to be a serious possibility. The experimental methodology entails some conceptual difficulties, these depending on the underlying assumptions about the effects. A major point is an ambiguity between anomalous acquisition of information and retrocausation in exerted influences. A unifying theory has been proposed, based upon the fundamental randomness of quantum mechanics. Quantum mechanical randomness may be regarded as a tenacious phenomenon, that apparently is only resolved by the human observer of the random variable in question. This has led to the "observational theory" of anomalous phenomena, which is based upon the assumption that the preference of a motivated observer is able to interact with the extant indefinite random variable that is being observed. This observational theory has led to a novel prediction, which has been corroborated in experiments. Moreover, different classes of anomalous phenomena can be explained by the same basic mechanism. This foregoes retroactive causation, but, instead, requires that macroscopic physical variables remain in a state of indefinite reality and thus remain influenceable by mental efforts until these are observed. More work is needed to discover the relevant psychological and neurophysiological variables involved in effective motivated observation. Besides these practicalities, the fundamentals still have some interesting loose ends.

Non-traditional stable isotope behaviors in immiscible silica-melts in a mafic magma chamber.

PubMed

Zhu, Dan; Bao, Huiming; Liu, Yun

2015-12-01

Non-traditional stable isotopes have increasingly been applied to studies of igneous processes including planetary differentiation. Equilibrium isotope fractionation of these elements in silicates is expected to be negligible at magmatic temperatures (δ(57)Fe difference often less than 0.2 per mil). However, an increasing number of data has revealed a puzzling observation, e.g., the δ(57)Fe for silicic magmas ranges from 0‰ up to 0.6‰, with the most positive δ(57)Fe almost exclusively found in A-type granitoids. Several interpretations have been proposed by different research groups, but these have so far failed to explain some aspects of the observations. Here we propose a dynamic, diffusion-induced isotope fractionation model that assumes Si-melts are growing and ascending immiscibly in a Fe-rich bulk magma chamber. Our model offers predictions on the behavior of non-traditional stable isotope such as Fe, Mg, Si, and Li that are consistent with observations from many A-type granitoids, especially those associated with layered intrusions. Diffusion-induced isotope fractionation may be more commonly preserved in magmatic rocks than was originally predicted.

Chemistry in dynamically evolving clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tarafdar, S. P.; Prasad, S. S.; Huntress, W. T., Jr.; Villere, K. R.; Black, D. C.

1985-01-01

A unified model of chemical and dynamical evolution of isolated, initially diffuse and quiescent interstellar clouds is presented. The model uses a semiempirically derived dependence of the observed cloud temperatures on the visual extinction and density. Even low-mass, low-density, diffuse clouds can collapse in this model, because the inward pressure gradient force assists gravitational contraction. In contrast, previous isothermal collapse models required the low-mass diffuse clouds to be unrealistically cold before gravitational contraction could start. Theoretically predicted dependences of the column densities of various atoms and molecules, such as C and CO, on visual extinction in diffuse clouds are in accord with observations. Similarly, the predicted dependences of the fractional abundances of various chemical species (e.g., CO, H2CO, HCN, HCO(+)) on the total hydrogen density in the core of the dense clouds also agree with observations reported to date in the literature. Compared with previous models of interstellar chemistry, the present model has the potential to explain the wide spectrum of chemical and physical properties of both diffuse and dense clouds with a common formalism employing only a few simple initial conditions.

Continuum mechanics analysis of fracture progression in the vitrified cryoprotective agent DP6

PubMed Central

Steif, Paul S.; Palastro, Matthew C.; Rabin, Yoed

2008-01-01

As part of an ongoing effort to study the continuum mechanics effects associated with cryopreservation, the current report focuses on the prediction of fracture formation in cryoprotective agents. Fractures had been previously observed in 1 mℓ samples of the cryoprotective agent cocktail DP6, contained in a standard 15 mℓ glass vial, and subjected to various cooling rates. These experimental observations were obtained by means of a cryomacroscope, which has been recently presented by the current research team. High and low cooling rates were found to produce very distinct patterns of cracking. The current study seeks to explain the observed patterns on the basis of stresses predicted from finite element analysis, which relies on a simple viscoelastic constitutive model and on estimates of the critical stress for cracking. The current study demonstrates that the stress which results in instantaneous fracture at low cooling rates is consistent with the stress to initiate fracture at high cooling rate. This consistency supports the credibility of the proposed constitutive model and analysis, and the unified criterion for fracturing, that is, a critical stress threshold. PMID:18412493

GUT-inspired supersymmetric model for h → γ γ and the muon g - 2

DOE PAGES

Ajaib, M. Adeel; Gogoladze, Ilia; Shafi, Qaisar

2015-05-06

We study a grand unified theories inspired supersymmetric model with nonuniversal gaugino masses that can explain the observed muon g-2 anomaly while simultaneously accommodating an enhancement or suppression in the h→γγ decay channel. In order to accommodate these observations and m h≅125 to 126 GeV, the model requires a spectrum consisting of relatively light sleptons whereas the colored sparticles are heavy. The predicted stau mass range corresponding to R γγ≥1.1 is 100 GeV≲m τ˜≲200 GeV. The constraint on the slepton masses, particularly on the smuons, arising from considerations of muon g-2 is somewhat milder. The slepton masses in this casemore » are predicted to lie in the few hundred GeV range. The colored sparticles turn out to be considerably heavier with m g˜≳4.5 TeV and m t˜₁≳3.5 TeV, which makes it challenging for these to be observed at the 14 TeV LHC.« less

Secondary organic aerosol formation from semi- and intermediate-volatility organic compounds and glyoxal: Relevance of O/C as a tracer for aqueous multiphase chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waxman, Eleanor M.; Dzepina, Katja; Ervens, Barbara; Lee-Taylor, Julia; Aumont, Bernard; Jimenez, Jose L.; Madronich, Sasha; Volkamer, Rainer

2013-03-01

The role of aqueous multiphase chemistry in the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) remains difficult to quantify. We investigate it here by testing the rapid formation of moderate oxygen-to-carbon (O/C) SOA during a case study in Mexico City. A novel laboratory-based glyoxal-SOA mechanism is applied to the field data, and explains why less gas-phase glyoxal mass is observed than predicted. Furthermore, we compare an explicit gas-phase chemical mechanism for SOA formation from semi- and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (S/IVOCs) with empirical parameterizations of S/IVOC aging. The mechanism representing our current understanding of chemical kinetics of S/IVOC oxidation combined with traditional SOA sources and mixing of background SOA underestimates the observed O/C by a factor of two at noon. Inclusion of glyoxal-SOA with O/C of 1.5 brings O/C predictions within measurement uncertainty, suggesting that field observations can be reconciled on reasonable time scales using laboratory-based empirical relationships for aqueous chemistry.

Testing universality of Efimov Physics based on a mass-imbalanced Li-Cs mixture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johansen, Jacob; Desalvo, Brian; Patel, Krutik; Chin, Cheng

2017-04-01

Efimov states are notable for their universal geometric scaling and are observable in ultracold atomic systems employing magnetic Feshbach resonances. In addition to geometric scaling, which we observed previously by taking advantage of a reduced Efimov scaling constant in our mass imbalanced 6Li-133Cs system, an interesting pattern has emerged in Efimov measurements: while expected to be non-universal, the absolute positions of Efimov resonances appear to scale simply with van der Waals length. Theories attempting to explain this observation have predicted a dependence on the strength of the Feshbach resonance for narrow resonances, yet experiments attempting to probe this regime have so far been inconsistent with the predicted dependence. In this talk, we focus primarily on our recent measurements showing dependence on Feshbach resonance strength. We directly compare two Feshbach resonances, one broad and one very narrow, which are nearly identical with the exception of the resonance strength, and find a striking difference in the first Efimov resonance position. Our measurement makes significant strides toward resolving the discrepancy between experiment and theory which exists in the field today.

Private Information and Insurance Rejections

PubMed Central

Hendren, Nathaniel

2013-01-01

Across a wide set of non-group insurance markets, applicants are rejected based on observable, often high-risk, characteristics. This paper argues that private information, held by the potential applicant pool, explains rejections. I formulate this argument by developing and testing a model in which agents may have private information about their risk. I first derive a new no-trade result that theoretically explains how private information could cause rejections. I then develop a new empirical methodology to test whether this no-trade condition can explain rejections. The methodology uses subjective probability elicitations as noisy measures of agents beliefs. I apply this approach to three non-group markets: long-term care, disability, and life insurance. Consistent with the predictions of the theory, in all three settings I find significant amounts of private information held by those who would be rejected; I find generally more private information for those who would be rejected relative to those who can purchase insurance; and I show it is enough private information to explain a complete absence of trade for those who would be rejected. The results suggest private information prevents the existence of large segments of these three major insurance markets. PMID:24187381

A new look at children's understanding of mind and emotion: the case of prayer.

PubMed

Bamford, Christi; Lagattuta, Kristin Hansen

2010-01-01

Multiple methods were used to examine children's awareness of connections between emotion and prayer. Four-, 6-, and 8-year-olds and adults (N = 100) predicted whether people would pray when feeling different emotions, explained why characters in different situations decided to pray, and predicted whether characters' emotions would change after praying. Four- and 6-year-olds exclusively judged that positive emotions motivate prayer, whereas 8-year-olds and adults most often predicted that negative emotions would cause people to pray and that praying could improve emotions. There was also a significant increase between 4 and 8 years in explaining prayer as motivated by need for assistance, for thanksgiving, and for conversation, as well as for explaining postprayer emotions in relation to God or prayer. Religious background predicted individual differences in reasoning only for 4-year-olds. Copyright 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

A meta-analysis and statistical modelling of nitrates in groundwater at the African scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouedraogo, Issoufou; Vanclooster, Marnik

2016-06-01

Contamination of groundwater with nitrate poses a major health risk to millions of people around Africa. Assessing the space-time distribution of this contamination, as well as understanding the factors that explain this contamination, is important for managing sustainable drinking water at the regional scale. This study aims to assess the variables that contribute to nitrate pollution in groundwater at the African scale by statistical modelling. We compiled a literature database of nitrate concentration in groundwater (around 250 studies) and combined it with digital maps of physical attributes such as soil, geology, climate, hydrogeology, and anthropogenic data for statistical model development. The maximum, medium, and minimum observed nitrate concentrations were analysed. In total, 13 explanatory variables were screened to explain observed nitrate pollution in groundwater. For the mean nitrate concentration, four variables are retained in the statistical explanatory model: (1) depth to groundwater (shallow groundwater, typically < 50 m); (2) recharge rate; (3) aquifer type; and (4) population density. The first three variables represent intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater systems to pollution, while the latter variable is a proxy for anthropogenic pollution pressure. The model explains 65 % of the variation of mean nitrate contamination in groundwater at the African scale. Using the same proxy information, we could develop a statistical model for the maximum nitrate concentrations that explains 42 % of the nitrate variation. For the maximum concentrations, other environmental attributes such as soil type, slope, rainfall, climate class, and region type improve the prediction of maximum nitrate concentrations at the African scale. As to minimal nitrate concentrations, in the absence of normal distribution assumptions of the data set, we do not develop a statistical model for these data. The data-based statistical model presented here represents an important step towards developing tools that will allow us to accurately predict nitrate distribution at the African scale and thus may support groundwater monitoring and water management that aims to protect groundwater systems. Yet they should be further refined and validated when more detailed and harmonized data become available and/or combined with more conceptual descriptions of the fate of nutrients in the hydrosystem.

Determinants of the Spatial Distributions of Elemental Carbon and Particulate Matter in Eight Southern Californian Communities

PubMed Central

Urman, Robert; Gauderman, James; Fruin, Scott; Lurmann, Fred; Liu, Feifei; Hosseini, Reza; Franklin, Meredith; Avol, Edward; Penfold, Bryan; Gilliland, Frank; Brunekreef, Bert; McConnell, Rob

2014-01-01

Emerging evidence indicates that near-roadway pollution (NRP) in ambient air has adverse health effects. However, specific components of the NRP mixture responsible for these effects have not been established. A major limitation for health studies is the lack of exposure models that estimate NRP components observed in epidemiological studies over fine spatial scale of tens to hundreds of meters. In this study, exposure models were developed for fine-scale variation in biologically relevant elemental carbon (EC). Measurements of particulate matter (PM) and EC less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (EC2.5) and of PM and EC of nanoscale size less than 0.2 μm were made at up to 29 locations in each of eight Southern California Children's Health Study communities. Regression-based prediction models were developed using a guided forward selection process to identify traffic variables and other pollutant sources, community physical characteristics and land use as predictors of PM and EC variation in each community. A combined eight-community model including only CALINE4 near-roadway dispersion-estimated vehicular emissions accounting for distance, distance-weighted traffic volume, and meteorology, explained 51% of the EC0.2 variability. Community-specific models identified additional predictors in some communities; however, in most communities the correlation between predicted concentrations from the eight-community model and observed concentrations stratified by community were similar to those for the community-specific models. EC2.5 could be predicted as well as EC0.2. EC2.5 estimated from CALINE4 and population density explained 53% of the within-community variation. Exposure prediction was further improved after accounting for between-community heterogeneity of CALINE4 effects associated with average distance to Pacific Ocean shoreline (to 61% for EC0.2) and for regional NOx pollution (to 57% for EC2.5). PM fine spatial scale variation was poorly predicted in both size fractions. In conclusion, models of exposure that include traffic measures such as CALINE4 can provide useful estimates for EC0.2 and EC2.5 on a spatial scale appropriate for health studies of NRP in selected Southern California communities. PMID:25313293

Tell me who you are and I tell you how you feel: expected emotional reactions to success and failure are influenced by knowledge about a person's personality.

PubMed

Hareli, Shlomo; Sharabi, Moshe; Hess, Ursula

2011-08-01

The present research investigated the influence of knowledge about a person's modesty or arrogance on people's expectations regarding that person's emotional reactions to success and failure. Arrogance and modesty reflect the extent to which someone is likely to publicize their ability. Accordingly, we predicted that observers' expectations regarding a person's tendency to publicize their ability should inform expectations about the person's emotional reactions to success and failure. In two vignette studies, observers predicted the emotional state of a protagonist, as well as the probability that s/he will actually express that emotion and share the experience with others. For success, participants predicted a protagonist's pride, happiness, schadenfreude, and embarrassment if praised for a positive outcome. For failure, participants predicted anger, shame, guilt, sadness, and fear reactions. Across studies, personality information explained more variance than did gender or status. Results showed that the expectations for an arrogant person matched modal expectations for success, whereas for failure the expectations for the modest individual were closest to the modal expectations. Specifically, both modest and arrogant individuals were expected to suppress emotions that do not fit their self-presentational styles rather than to exaggerate expressions that do. This paper adds to our understanding of the information that people use to predict others' emotional reactions.

From link-prediction in brain connectomes and protein interactomes to the local-community-paradigm in complex networks

PubMed Central

Cannistraci, Carlo Vittorio; Alanis-Lobato, Gregorio; Ravasi, Timothy

2013-01-01

Growth and remodelling impact the network topology of complex systems, yet a general theory explaining how new links arise between existing nodes has been lacking, and little is known about the topological properties that facilitate link-prediction. Here we investigate the extent to which the connectivity evolution of a network might be predicted by mere topological features. We show how a link/community-based strategy triggers substantial prediction improvements because it accounts for the singular topology of several real networks organised in multiple local communities - a tendency here named local-community-paradigm (LCP). We observe that LCP networks are mainly formed by weak interactions and characterise heterogeneous and dynamic systems that use self-organisation as a major adaptation strategy. These systems seem designed for global delivery of information and processing via multiple local modules. Conversely, non-LCP networks have steady architectures formed by strong interactions, and seem designed for systems in which information/energy storage is crucial. PMID:23563395

From link-prediction in brain connectomes and protein interactomes to the local-community-paradigm in complex networks.

PubMed

Cannistraci, Carlo Vittorio; Alanis-Lobato, Gregorio; Ravasi, Timothy

2013-01-01

Growth and remodelling impact the network topology of complex systems, yet a general theory explaining how new links arise between existing nodes has been lacking, and little is known about the topological properties that facilitate link-prediction. Here we investigate the extent to which the connectivity evolution of a network might be predicted by mere topological features. We show how a link/community-based strategy triggers substantial prediction improvements because it accounts for the singular topology of several real networks organised in multiple local communities - a tendency here named local-community-paradigm (LCP). We observe that LCP networks are mainly formed by weak interactions and characterise heterogeneous and dynamic systems that use self-organisation as a major adaptation strategy. These systems seem designed for global delivery of information and processing via multiple local modules. Conversely, non-LCP networks have steady architectures formed by strong interactions, and seem designed for systems in which information/energy storage is crucial.

Students' mental models on the solubility and solubility product concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmi, Chusnur; Katmiati, Siti; Wiji, Mulyani, Sri

2017-05-01

This study aims to obtain some information regarding profile of students' mental models on the solubility and solubility product concept. A descriptive qualitative method was the method employed in the study. The participants of the study were students XI grade of a senior high school in Bandung. To collect the data, diagnostic test on mental model-prediction, observation, explanation (TDM-POE) instrument was employed in the study. The results of the study revealed that on the concept of precipitation formation of a reaction, 30% of students were not able to explain the precipitation formation of a reaction either in submicroscopic or symbolic level although the microscopic have been shown; 26% of students were able to explain the precipitation formation of a reaction based on the relation of Qsp and Ksp, but they were not able to explain the interaction of particles that involved in the reaction and to calculate Qsp; 26% of students were able to explain the precipitation formation of a reaction based on the relation of Qsp and Ksp, and determine the particles involved, but they did not have the knowledge about the interactions occured and were uncapable of calculating Qsp; and 18% of students were able to explain the precipitation formation of a reaction based on the relation of Qsp and Ksp, and determine the interactions of the particles involved in the reactions but they were not able to calculate Qsp. On the effect of adding common ions and decreasing pH towards the solubility concept, 96% of students were not able to explain the effect of adding common ions and decreasing pH towards the solubility either in submicroscopic or symbolic level although the microscopic have been shown; while 4% of students were only able to explain the effect of adding common ions towards the solubility based on the chemical equilibrium shifts and predict the effect of decreasing pH towards the solubility. However, they were not able to calculate the solubility before and after adding common ions and explain it up to the submicroscopic level either based on the shift of equilibrium solubility or the comparison of solubility calculation results before and after decreasing pH. Overall, the present study showed that most students obtain incomplete mental model on the solubility and solubility product concept. From the findings, it is recommended for the teachers to improve students' learning activity.

Big Mysteries: The Higgs Mass

ScienceCinema

Lincoln, Don

2018-01-16

With the discovery of what looks to be the Higgs boson, LHC researchers are turning their attention to the next big question, which is the predicted mass of the newly discovered particles. When the effects of quantum mechanics is taken into account, the mass of the Higgs boson should be incredibly high...perhaps upwards of a quadrillion times higher than what was observed. In this video, Fermilab's Dr. Don Lincoln explains how it is that the theory predicts that the mass is so large and gives at least one possible theoretical idea that might solve the problem. Whether the proposed idea is the answer or not, this question must be answered by experiments at the LHC or today's entire theoretical paradigm could be in jeopardy.

Julius Edgar Lilienfeld Prize Lecture: The Higgs Boson, String Theory, and the Real World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kane, Gordon

2012-03-01

In this talk I'll describe how string theory is exciting because it can address most, perhaps all, of the questions we hope to understand about our world: why quarks and leptons make up our world, what forces form our world, cosmology, parity violation, and much more. I'll explain why string theory is testable in basically the same ways as the rest of physics, and why much of what is written about that is misleading. String theory is already or soon being tested in several ways, including correctly predicting the recently observed Higgs boson properties and mass, and predictions for dark matter, LHC physics, cosmological history, and more, from work in the increasingly active subfield ``string phenomenology.''

Why are Buckyonions Round?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bates, Kevin R.; Scuseria, Gustavo E.

1998-01-01

Multi-layered round carbon particles (onions) containing tens to hundreds of thousands of atoms form during electron irradiation of graphite. However. theoretical models or large icosahedral fullerenes predict highly faceted shapes for molecules with more than a few hundred atoms. This discrepancy in shape may be explained by the presence of defects during the formation of carbon onions. Here, we use the semi-empirical tight-binding method for carbon to simulate the incorporation of pentagon-heptagon defects on to the surface of large icosahedral fullerenes. We show a simple mechanism that results in energetically competitive derivative structures and a global change in molecular shape from faceted to round. Our results provide a plausible explanation of the apparent discrepancy between experimental observations or round buckyonions and theoretical predictions of faceted icosahedral fullerenes.

Big Mysteries: The Higgs Mass

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lincoln, Don

2014-04-28

With the discovery of what looks to be the Higgs boson, LHC researchers are turning their attention to the next big question, which is the predicted mass of the newly discovered particles. When the effects of quantum mechanics is taken into account, the mass of the Higgs boson should be incredibly high...perhaps upwards of a quadrillion times higher than what was observed. In this video, Fermilab's Dr. Don Lincoln explains how it is that the theory predicts that the mass is so large and gives at least one possible theoretical idea that might solve the problem. Whether the proposed ideamore » is the answer or not, this question must be answered by experiments at the LHC or today's entire theoretical paradigm could be in jeopardy.« less

Accounting for the Down syndrome advantage?

PubMed

Esbensen, Anna J; Seltzer, Marsha Mailick

2011-01-01

The authors examined factors that could explain the higher levels of psychosocial well being observed in past research in mothers of individuals with Down syndrome compared with mothers of individuals with other types of intellectual disabilities. The authors studied 155 mothers of adults with Down syndrome, contrasting factors that might validly account for the ?Down syndrome advantage? (behavioral phenotype) with those that have been portrayed in past research as artifactual (maternal age, social supports). The behavioral phenotype predicted less pessimism, more life satisfaction, and a better quality of the mother?child relationship. However, younger maternal age and fewer social supports, as well as the behavioral phenotype, predicted higher levels of caregiving burden. Implications for future research on families of individuals with Down syndrome are discussed.

Creating and validating cis-regulatory maps of tissue-specific gene expression regulation

PubMed Central

O'Connor, Timothy R.; Bailey, Timothy L.

2014-01-01

Predicting which genomic regions control the transcription of a given gene is a challenge. We present a novel computational approach for creating and validating maps that associate genomic regions (cis-regulatory modules–CRMs) with genes. The method infers regulatory relationships that explain gene expression observed in a test tissue using widely available genomic data for ‘other’ tissues. To predict the regulatory targets of a CRM, we use cross-tissue correlation between histone modifications present at the CRM and expression at genes within 1 Mbp of it. To validate cis-regulatory maps, we show that they yield more accurate models of gene expression than carefully constructed control maps. These gene expression models predict observed gene expression from transcription factor binding in the CRMs linked to that gene. We show that our maps are able to identify long-range regulatory interactions and improve substantially over maps linking genes and CRMs based on either the control maps or a ‘nearest neighbor’ heuristic. Our results also show that it is essential to include CRMs predicted in multiple tissues during map-building, that H3K27ac is the most informative histone modification, and that CAGE is the most informative measure of gene expression for creating cis-regulatory maps. PMID:25200088

An Experimental Study of Incremental Surface Loading of an Elastic Plate: Application to Volcano Tectonics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, K. K.; Zuber, M. T.

1995-01-01

Models of surface fractures due to volcanic loading an elastic plate are commonly used to constrain thickness of planetary lithospheres, but discrepancies exist in predictions of the style of initial failure and in the nature of subsequent fracture evolution. In this study, we perform an experiment to determine the mode of initial failure due to the incremental addition of a conical load to the surface of an elastic plate and compare the location of initial failure with that predicted by elastic theory. In all experiments, the mode of initial failure was tension cracking at the surface of the plate, with cracks oriented circumferential to the load. The cracks nucleated at a distance from load center that corresponds the maximum radial stress predicted by analytical solutions, so a tensile failure criterion is appropriate for predictions of initial failure. With continued loading of the plate, migration of tensional cracks was observed. In the same azimuthal direction as the initial crack, subsequent cracks formed at a smaller radial distance than the initial crack. When forming in a different azimuthal direction, the subsequent cracks formed at a distance greater than the radial distance of the initial crack. The observed fracture pattern may explain the distribution of extensional structures in annular bands around many large scale, circular volcanic features.

Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change

PubMed Central

Longo, Marcos; Baccini, Alessandro; Phillips, Oliver L.; Lewis, Simon L.; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina; Brienen, Roel J. W.; Erwin, Terry L.; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo; Nuñez Vargas, Percy; Prieto, Adriana; Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R.

2016-01-01

Amazon forests, which store ∼50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem’s resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest’s response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions. PMID:26711984

Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change.

PubMed

Levine, Naomi M; Zhang, Ke; Longo, Marcos; Baccini, Alessandro; Phillips, Oliver L; Lewis, Simon L; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina; Brienen, Roel J W; Erwin, Terry L; Feldpausch, Ted R; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo; Nuñez Vargas, Percy; Prieto, Adriana; Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R

2016-01-19

Amazon forests, which store ∼ 50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.

Dark matter and color octets beyond the Standard Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krnjaic, Gordan Z.

Although the Standard Model (SM) of particles and interactions has survived forty years of experimental tests, it does not provide a complete description of nature. From cosmological and astrophysical observations, it is now clear that the majority of matter in the universe is not baryonic and interacts very weakly (if at all) via non-gravitational forces. The SM does not provide a dark matter candidate, so new particles must be introduced. Furthermore, recent Tevatron results suggest that SM predictions for benchmark collider observables are in tension with experimental observations. In this thesis, we will propose extensions to the SM that address each of these issues. Although there is abundant indirect evidence for the existence of dark matter, terrestrial efforts to observe its interactions have yielded conflicting results. We address this situation with a simple model of dark matter that features hydrogen-like bound states that scatter off SM nuclei by undergoing inelastic hyperfine transitions. We explore the available parameter space that results from demanding that DM self-interactions satisfy experimental bounds and ameliorate the tension between positive and null signals at the DAMA and CDMS experiments respectively. However, this simple model does not explain the cosmological abundance of dark matter and also encounters a Landau pole at a low energy scale. We, therefore, extend the field content and gauge group of the dark sector to resolve these issues with a renormalizable UV completion. We also explore the galactic dynamics of unbound dark matter and find that "dark ions" settle into a diffuse isothermal halo that differs from that of the bound states. This suppresses the local dark-ion density and expands the model's viable parameter space. We also consider the > 3σ excess in W plus dijet events recently observed at the Tevatron collider. We show that decays of a color-octet, electroweak-triplet scalar particle ("octo-triplet") can yield the requisite final state to explain the data. We also find that octotriplets can induce mixing in the B - B¯ system and may give rise to additional CP violation. The model makes concrete predictions for several final states accessible at the LHC, so it can promptly be discovered or falsified. Finally we address the anomalous top forward-backward asymmetry observed the Tevatron. We find that a spin-1 color octet particle with flavor blind axial interactions can explain this anomaly if the mass is in the 50 - 90 GeV range. We explore the multitude of experimental constrains in this mass window and present the viable parameter space as a function of the axigluon mass and coupling constant.

Bayesian Mapping Reveals That Attention Boosts Neural Responses to Predicted and Unpredicted Stimuli.

PubMed

Garrido, Marta I; Rowe, Elise G; Halász, Veronika; Mattingley, Jason B

2018-05-01

Predictive coding posits that the human brain continually monitors the environment for regularities and detects inconsistencies. It is unclear, however, what effect attention has on expectation processes, as there have been relatively few studies and the results of these have yielded contradictory findings. Here, we employed Bayesian model comparison to adjudicate between 2 alternative computational models. The "Opposition" model states that attention boosts neural responses equally to predicted and unpredicted stimuli, whereas the "Interaction" model assumes that attentional boosting of neural signals depends on the level of predictability. We designed a novel, audiospatial attention task that orthogonally manipulated attention and prediction by playing oddball sequences in either the attended or unattended ear. We observed sensory prediction error responses, with electroencephalography, across all attentional manipulations. Crucially, posterior probability maps revealed that, overall, the Opposition model better explained scalp and source data, suggesting that attention boosts responses to predicted and unpredicted stimuli equally. Furthermore, Dynamic Causal Modeling showed that these Opposition effects were expressed in plastic changes within the mismatch negativity network. Our findings provide empirical evidence for a computational model of the opposing interplay of attention and expectation in the brain.

Emergent Constraints for Cloud Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity

DOE PAGES

Klein, Stephen A.; Hall, Alex

2015-10-26

Emergent constraints are physically explainable empirical relationships between characteristics of the current climate and long-term climate prediction that emerge in collections of climate model simulations. With the prospect of constraining long-term climate prediction, scientists have recently uncovered several emergent constraints related to long-term cloud feedbacks. We review these proposed emergent constraints, many of which involve the behavior of low-level clouds, and discuss criteria to assess their credibility. With further research, some of the cases we review may eventually become confirmed emergent constraints, provided they are accompanied by credible physical explanations. Because confirmed emergent constraints identify a source of model errormore » that projects onto climate predictions, they deserve extra attention from those developing climate models and climate observations. While a systematic bias cannot be ruled out, it is noteworthy that the promising emergent constraints suggest larger cloud feedback and hence climate sensitivity.« less

The (in)dependence of articulation and lexical planning during isolated word production.

PubMed

Buz, Esteban; Jaeger, T Florian

The number of phonological neighbors to a word (PND) can affect its lexical planning and pronunciation. Similar parallel effects on planning and articulation have been observed for other lexical variables, such as a word's contextual predictability. Such parallelism is frequently taken to indicate that effects on articulation are mediated by effects on the time course of lexical planning. We test this mediation assumption for PND and find it unsupported. In a picture naming experiment, we measure speech onset latencies (planning), word durations, and vowel dispersion (articulation). We find that PND predicts both latencies and durations. Further, latencies predict durations. However, the effects of PND and latency on duration are independent: parallel effects do not imply mediation. We discuss the consequences for accounts of lexical planning, articulation, and the link between them. In particular, our results suggest that ease of planning does not explain effects of PND on articulation.

The (in)dependence of articulation and lexical planning during isolated word production

PubMed Central

Buz, Esteban; Jaeger, T. Florian

2016-01-01

The number of phonological neighbors to a word (PND) can affect its lexical planning and pronunciation. Similar parallel effects on planning and articulation have been observed for other lexical variables, such as a word’s contextual predictability. Such parallelism is frequently taken to indicate that effects on articulation are mediated by effects on the time course of lexical planning. We test this mediation assumption for PND and find it unsupported. In a picture naming experiment, we measure speech onset latencies (planning), word durations, and vowel dispersion (articulation). We find that PND predicts both latencies and durations. Further, latencies predict durations. However, the effects of PND and latency on duration are independent: parallel effects do not imply mediation. We discuss the consequences for accounts of lexical planning, articulation, and the link between them. In particular, our results suggest that ease of planning does not explain effects of PND on articulation. PMID:27376094

Tandem internal models execute motor learning in the cerebellum.

PubMed

Honda, Takeru; Nagao, Soichi; Hashimoto, Yuji; Ishikawa, Kinya; Yokota, Takanori; Mizusawa, Hidehiro; Ito, Masao

2018-06-25

In performing skillful movement, humans use predictions from internal models formed by repetition learning. However, the computational organization of internal models in the brain remains unknown. Here, we demonstrate that a computational architecture employing a tandem configuration of forward and inverse internal models enables efficient motor learning in the cerebellum. The model predicted learning adaptations observed in hand-reaching experiments in humans wearing a prism lens and explained the kinetic components of these behavioral adaptations. The tandem system also predicted a form of subliminal motor learning that was experimentally validated after training intentional misses of hand targets. Patients with cerebellar degeneration disease showed behavioral impairments consistent with tandemly arranged internal models. These findings validate computational tandemization of internal models in motor control and its potential uses in more complex forms of learning and cognition. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Seeing Eye to Eye: Predicting Teacher-Student Agreement on Classroom Social Networks

PubMed Central

Neal, Jennifer Watling; Cappella, Elise; Wagner, Caroline; Atkins, Marc S.

2010-01-01

This study examines the association between classroom characteristics and teacher-student agreement in perceptions of students’ classroom peer networks. Social network, peer nomination, and observational data were collected from a sample of second through fourth grade teachers (N=33) and students (N=669) in 33 classrooms across five high poverty urban schools. Results demonstrate that variation in teacher-student agreement on the structure of students’ peer networks can be explained, in part, by developmental factors and classroom characteristics. Developmental increases in network density partially mediated the positive relationship between grade level and teacher-student agreement. Larger class sizes and higher levels of normative aggressive behavior resulted in lower levels of teacher-student agreement. Teachers’ levels of classroom organization had mixed influences, with behavior management negatively predicting agreement, and productivity positively predicting agreement. These results underscore the importance of the classroom context in shaping teacher and student perceptions of peer networks. PMID:21666768

Survival of the Friendliest: Homo sapiens Evolved via Selection for Prosociality.

PubMed

Hare, Brian

2017-01-03

The challenge of studying human cognitive evolution is identifying unique features of our intelligence while explaining the processes by which they arose. Comparisons with nonhuman apes point to our early-emerging cooperative-communicative abilities as crucial to the evolution of all forms of human cultural cognition, including language. The human self-domestication hypothesis proposes that these early-emerging social skills evolved when natural selection favored increased in-group prosociality over aggression in late human evolution. As a by-product of this selection, humans are predicted to show traits of the domestication syndrome observed in other domestic animals. In reviewing comparative, developmental, neurobiological, and paleoanthropological research, compelling evidence emerges for the predicted relationship between unique human mentalizing abilities, tolerance, and the domestication syndrome in humans. This synthesis includes a review of the first a priori test of the self-domestication hypothesis as well as predictions for future tests.

The Evolution of Energetic Scaling across the Vertebrate Tree of Life.

PubMed

Uyeda, Josef C; Pennell, Matthew W; Miller, Eliot T; Maia, Rafael; McClain, Craig R

2017-08-01

Metabolism is the link between ecology and physiology-it dictates the flow of energy through individuals and across trophic levels. Much of the predictive power of metabolic theories of ecology derives from the scaling relationship between organismal size and metabolic rate. There is growing evidence that this scaling relationship is not universal, but we have little knowledge of how it has evolved over macroevolutionary time. Here we develop a novel phylogenetic comparative method to investigate how often and in which clades the macroevolutionary dynamics of the metabolic scaling have changed. We find strong evidence that the metabolic scaling relationship has shifted multiple times across the vertebrate phylogeny. However, shifts are rare and otherwise strongly constrained. Importantly, both the estimated slope and intercept values vary widely across regimes, with slopes that spanned across theoretically predicted values such as 2/3 or 3/4. We further tested whether traits such as ecto-/endothermy, genome size, and quadratic curvature with body mass (i.e., energetic constraints at extreme body sizes) could explain the observed pattern of shifts. Though these factors help explain some of the variation in scaling parameters, much of the remaining variation remains elusive. Our results lay the groundwork for further exploration of the evolutionary and ecological drivers of major transitions in metabolic strategy and for harnessing this information to improve macroecological predictions.

Does lifetime exposure to hormones predict pretreatment cognitive function in women before adjuvant therapy for breast cancer?

PubMed Central

Bender, Catherine M.; Sereika, Susan M.; Ryan, Christopher M.; Brufsky, Adam M.; Puhalla, Shannon; Berga, Sarah L.

2013-01-01

Objective Women with breast cancer have been found to have poorer cognitive function before the initiation of systemic adjuvant therapy than their age- and education-matched counterparts. The basis for this may partly include hormone exposure during the course of a woman’s life. Methods We compared cognitive function between postmenopausal women with breast cancer before the initiation of systemic adjuvant therapy and healthy age- and education-matched postmenopausal women and examined whether factors related to lifetime exposure to hormones predicted cognitive function before therapy. Results We found that, compared with healthy women, women with breast cancer had poorer memory (P = 0.05) and attention (P = 0.006). Controlling for the covariates age and estimated verbal intelligence, we found that factors related to greater lifetime hormone exposure (oral contraceptive use, greater years since menopause, and longer duration of hormone therapy) predicted cognitive function (executive function, verbal learning and memory, attention, psychomotor efficiency, and visual sustained attention) in women with and without breast cancer but did not explain the differences in cognitive function observed at pretreatment in women with breast cancer. Conclusions Other factors may explain the poorer pretreatment cognitive function in women with breast cancer, including persistent effects of surgical operation and anesthesia, sleep problems, and tumor-related factors. Additional studies are needed to explicate the basis of poorer pretherapy cognitive function in this population. PMID:23481123

Ion Thermal Decoupling and Species Separation in Shock-Driven Implosions

DOE PAGES

Rinderknecht, Hans G.; Rosenberg, M. J.; Li, C. K.; ...

2015-01-14

Here, anomalous reduction of the fusion yields by 50% and anomalous scaling of the burn-averaged ion temperatures with the ion-species fraction has been observed for the first time in D 3He-filled shock-driven inertial confinement fusion implosions. Two ion kinetic mechanisms are used to explain the anomalous observations: thermal decoupling of the D and 3He populations and diffusive species separation. The observed insensitivity of ion temperature to a varying deuterium fraction is shown to be a signature of ion thermal decoupling in shock-heated plasmas. The burn-averaged deuterium fraction calculated from the experimental data demonstrates a reduction in the average core deuteriummore » density, as predicted by simulations that use a diffusion model. Accounting for each of these effects in simulations reproduces the observed yield trends.« less

Tilt observations using borehole tiltmeters: 2. Analysis of data from Yellowstone National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meertens, Charles; Levine, Judah; Busby, Robert

1989-01-01

We have installed borehole tiltmeters at five sites in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, and have used these instruments to measure the spatial variation of the amplitude and phase of the principal semidiurnal tide. The measured tides vary both with position and azimuth and differ from the sum of the body tide and the ocean load by up to 50%. The difference predicted by a finite element model constructed from seismic, refraction, and gravity data has a maximum value of only 12%, although the discrepancy between our observations and the model is only marginally significant at some sites. The disagreement between the model and our observations is much larger than we observed using the same instruments at other sites and cannot be attributed to an instrumental effect. We have been unable to modify the model to explain our results while keeping it consistent with the previous observations.

OBSERVATIONAL SIGNATURES OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WAVES IN MASSIVE STARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aerts, C.; Rogers, T. M.

We demonstrate observational evidence for the occurrence of convectively driven internal gravity waves (IGWs) in young massive O-type stars observed with high-precision CoRoT space photometry. This evidence results from a comparison between velocity spectra based on two-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations of IGWs in a differentially rotating massive star and the observed spectra. We also show that the velocity spectra caused by IGWs may lead to detectable line-profile variability and explain the occurrence of macroturbulence in the observed line profiles of OB stars. Our findings provide predictions that can readily be tested by including a sample of bright, slowly and rapidly rotatingmore » OB-type stars in the scientific program of the K2 mission accompanied by high-precision spectroscopy and their confrontation with multi-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of IGWs for various masses and ages.« less

The temperature-ballast hypothesis explains carbon export efficiency observations in the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Britten, Gregory L.; Wakamatsu, Lael; Primeau, François W.

2017-02-01

Carbon export from the Southern Ocean exerts a strong control on the ocean carbon sink, yet recent observations from the region demonstrate poorly understood relationships in which carbon export efficiency is weakly related to temperature. These observations conflict with traditional theory where export efficiency increases in colder waters. A recently proposed "temperature-ballast hypothesis" suggests an explanatory mechanism where the effect of temperature-dependent respiration is masked by variation in particle-ballast as upwelling waters move northward from Antarctica. We use observations and statistical models to test this mechanism and find positive support for the hypothesized temperature-ballast interactions. Best fitting models indicate a significant relation between export efficiency and silica-ballast while simultaneously revealing the expected inverse effect of temperature once ballast is accounted for. These findings reconcile model predictions, metabolic theory, and carbon export observations in the Southern Ocean and have consequences for how the ocean carbon sink responds to climate change.

Anosognosia, neglect, extinction and lesion site predict impairment of daily living after right-hemispheric stroke.

PubMed

Vossel, Simone; Weiss, Peter H; Eschenbeck, Philipp; Fink, Gereon R

2013-01-01

Right-hemispheric stroke can give rise to manifold neuropsychological deficits, in particular, impairments of spatial perception which are often accompanied by reduced self-awareness of these deficits (anosognosia). To date, the specific contribution of these deficits to a patient's difficulties in daily life activities remains to be elucidated. In 55 patients with right-hemispheric stroke we investigated the predictive value of different neglect-related symptoms, visual extinction and anosognosia for the performance of standardized activities of daily living (ADL). The additional impact of lesion location was examined using voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping. Step-wise linear regression revealed that anosognosia for visuospatial deficits was the most important predictor for performance in standardized ADL. In addition, motor-intentional and perceptual-attentional neglect, extinction and cancellation task performance significantly predicted ADL performance. Lesions comprising the right frontal and cingulate cortex and adjacent white matter explained additional variance in the performance of standardized ADL, in that damage to these areas was related to lower performance than predicted by the regression model only. Our data show a decisive role of anosognosia for visuospatial deficits for impaired ADL and therefore outcome/disability after stroke. The findings further demonstrate that the severity of neglect and extinction also predicts ADL performance. Our results thus strongly suggest that right-hemispheric stroke patients should not only be routinely assessed for neglect and extinction but also for anosognosia to initiate appropriate rehabilitative treatment. The observation that right frontal lesions explain additional variance in ADL most likely reflects that dysfunction of the supervisory system also significantly impacts upon rehabilitation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting success on the certification examinations of the American Board of Anesthesiology.

PubMed

McClintock, Joseph C; Gravlee, Glenn P

2010-01-01

Currently, residency programs lack objective predictors for passing the sequenced American Board of Anesthesiology (ABA) certification examinations on the first attempt. Our hypothesis was that performance on the ABA/American Society of Anesthesiologists In-Training Examination (ITE) and other variables can predict combined success on the ABA Part 1 and Part 2 examinations. The authors studied 2,458 subjects who took the ITE immediately after completing the first year of clinical anesthesia training and took the ABA Part 1 examination for primary certification immediately after completing residency training 2 yr later. ITE scores and other variables were used to predict which residents would complete the certification process (passing the ABA Part 1 and Part 2 examinations) in the shortest possible time after graduation. ITE scores alone accounted for most of the explained variation in the desired outcome of certification in the shortest possible time. In addition, almost half of the observed variation and most of the explained variance in ABA Part 1 scores was accounted for by ITE scores. A combined model using ITE scores, residency program accreditation cycle length, country of medical school, and gender best predicted which residents would complete the certification examinations in the shortest possible time. The principal implication of this study is that higher ABA/ American Society of Anesthesiologists ITE scores taken at the end of the first clinical anesthesia year serve as a significant and moderately strong predictor of high performance on the ABA Part 1 (written) examination, and a significant predictor of success in completing both the Part 1 and Part 2 examinations within the calendar year after the year of graduation from residency. Future studies may identify other predictors, and it would be helpful to identify factors that predict clinical performance as well.

Warfarin pharmacogenetics: a single VKORC1 polymorphism is predictive of dose across 3 racial groups.

PubMed

Limdi, Nita A; Wadelius, Mia; Cavallari, Larisa; Eriksson, Niclas; Crawford, Dana C; Lee, Ming-Ta M; Chen, Chien-Hsiun; Motsinger-Reif, Alison; Sagreiya, Hersh; Liu, Nianjun; Wu, Alan H B; Gage, Brian F; Jorgensen, Andrea; Pirmohamed, Munir; Shin, Jae-Gook; Suarez-Kurtz, Guilherme; Kimmel, Stephen E; Johnson, Julie A; Klein, Teri E; Wagner, Michael J

2010-05-06

Warfarin-dosing algorithms incorporating CYP2C9 and VKORC1 -1639G>A improve dose prediction compared with algorithms based solely on clinical and demographic factors. However, these algorithms better capture dose variability among whites than Asians or blacks. Herein, we evaluate whether other VKORC1 polymorphisms and haplotypes explain additional variation in warfarin dose beyond that explained by VKORC1 -1639G>A among Asians (n = 1103), blacks (n = 670), and whites (n = 3113). Participants were recruited from 11 countries as part of the International Warfarin Pharmacogenetics Consortium effort. Evaluation of the effects of individual VKORC1 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and haplotypes on warfarin dose used both univariate and multi variable linear regression. VKORC1 -1639G>A and 1173C>T individually explained the greatest variance in dose in all 3 racial groups. Incorporation of additional VKORC1 SNPs or haplotypes did not further improve dose prediction. VKORC1 explained greater variability in dose among whites than blacks and Asians. Differences in the percentage of variance in dose explained by VKORC1 across race were largely accounted for by the frequency of the -1639A (or 1173T) allele. Thus, clinicians should recognize that, although at a population level, the contribution of VKORC1 toward dose requirements is higher in whites than in nonwhites; genotype predicts similar dose requirements across racial groups.

Langevin dynamics encapsulate the microscopic and emergent macroscopic properties of midge swarms

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

In contrast to bird flocks, fish schools and animal herds, midge swarms maintain cohesion but do not possess global order. High-speed imaging techniques are now revealing that these swarms have surprising properties. Here, I show that simple models found on the Langevin equation are consistent with this wealth of recent observations. The models predict correctly that large accelerations, exceeding 10 g, will be common and they predict correctly the coexistence of core condensed phases surrounded by dilute vapour phases. The models also provide new insights into the influence of environmental conditions on swarm dynamics. They predict that correlations between midges increase the strength of the effective force binding the swarm together. This may explain why such correlations are absent in laboratory swarms but present in natural swarms which contend with the wind and other disturbances. Finally, the models predict that swarms have fluid-like macroscopic mechanical properties and will slosh rather than slide back and forth after being abruptly displaced. This prediction offers a promising avenue for future experimentation that goes beyond current quasi-static testing which has revealed solid-like responses. PMID:29298958

The Role of Crustal Strength in Controlling Magmatism and Melt Chemistry During Rifting and Breakup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armitage, John J.; Petersen, Kenni D.; Pérez-Gussinyé, Marta

2018-02-01

The strength of the crust has a strong impact on the evolution of continental extension and breakup. Strong crust may promote focused narrow rifting, while wide rifting might be due to a weaker crustal architecture. The strength of the crust also influences deeper processes within the asthenosphere. To quantitatively test the implications of crustal strength on the evolution of continental rift zones, we developed a 2-D numerical model of lithosphere extension that can predict the rare Earth element (REE) chemistry of erupted lava. We find that a difference in crustal strength leads to a different rate of depletion in light elements relative to heavy elements. By comparing the model predictions to rock samples from the Basin and Range, USA, we can demonstrate that slow extension of a weak continental crust can explain the observed depletion in melt chemistry. The same comparison for the Main Ethiopian Rift suggests that magmatism within this narrow rift zone can be explained by the localization of strain caused by a strong lower crust. We demonstrate that the slow extension of a strong lower crust above a mantle of potential temperature of 1,350 °C can fit the observed REE trends and the upper mantle seismic velocity for the Main Ethiopian Rift. The thermo-mechanical model implies that melt composition could provide quantitative information on the style of breakup and the initial strength of the continental crust.

How important are coastal fronts to albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) habitat in the Northeast Pacific Ocean?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieto, Karen; Xu, Yi; Teo, Steven L. H.; McClatchie, Sam; Holmes, John

2017-01-01

We used satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data to characterize coastal fronts and then tested the effects of the fronts and other environmental variables on the distribution of the albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) catches in the coastal areas (from the coast to 200 nm offshore) of the Northeast Pacific Ocean. A boosted regression tree (BRT) model was used to explain the spatial and temporal patterns in albacore tuna catch per unit effort (CPUE) (1988-2011), using frontal features (distance to the front and temperature gradient), and other environmental variables like SST, surface chlorophyll concentration (chlorophyll), and geostrophic currents as explanatory variables. Based on over two decades of high-resolution data, the modeled results confirmed previous findings that albacore CPUE distribution is strongly influenced by SST and chlorophyll at fishing locations, and the distance of fronts from the coast (DFRONT-COAST), albeit with substantial seasonal and interannual variation. Albacore CPUEs were higher near warm, low chlorophyll oceanic waters, and near SST fronts. We performed sequential leave-one-year-out cross-validations for all years and found that the relationships in the BRT models were robust for the entire study period. Spatial distributions of model-predicted albacore CPUE were similar to observations, but the model was unable to predict very high CPUEs in some areas. These results help to explain previously observed variability in albacore CPUE and will likely help improve international fisheries management in the face of environmental changes.

Dissection of complex adult traits in a mouse synthetic population.

PubMed

Burke, David T; Kozloff, Kenneth M; Chen, Shu; West, Joshua L; Wilkowski, Jodi M; Goldstein, Steven A; Miller, Richard A; Galecki, Andrzej T

2012-08-01

Finding the causative genetic variations that underlie complex adult traits is a significant experimental challenge. The unbiased search strategy of genome-wide association (GWAS) has been used extensively in recent human population studies. These efforts, however, typically find only a minor fraction of the genetic loci that are predicted to affect variation. As an experimental model for the analysis of adult polygenic traits, we measured a mouse population for multiple phenotypes and conducted a genome-wide search for effector loci. Complex adult phenotypes, related to body size and bone structure, were measured as component phenotypes, and each subphenotype was associated with a genomic spectrum of candidate effector loci. The strategy successfully detected several loci for the phenotypes, at genome-wide significance, using a single, modest-sized population (N = 505). The effector loci each explain 2%-10% of the measured trait variation and, taken together, the loci can account for over 25% of a trait's total population variation. A replicate population (N = 378) was used to confirm initially observed loci for one trait (femur length), and, when the two groups were merged, the combined population demonstrated increased power to detect loci. In contrast to human population studies, our mouse genome-wide searches find loci that individually explain a larger fraction of the observed variation. Also, the additive effects of our detected mouse loci more closely match the predicted genetic component of variation. The genetic loci discovered are logical candidates for components of the genetic networks having evolutionary conservation with human biology.

Capillary fracture of soft gels.

PubMed

Bostwick, Joshua B; Daniels, Karen E

2013-10-01

A liquid droplet resting on a soft gel substrate can deform that substrate to the point of material failure, whereby fractures develop on the gel surface that propagate outwards from the contact line in a starburst pattern. In this paper, we characterize (i) the initiation process, in which the number of arms in the starburst is controlled by the ratio of the surface tension contrast to the gel's elastic modulus, and (ii) the propagation dynamics showing that once fractures are initiated they propagate with a universal power law L[proportional]t(3/4). We develop a model for crack initiation by treating the gel as a linear elastic solid and computing the deformations within the substrate from the liquid-solid wetting forces. The elastic solution shows that both the location and the magnitude of the wetting forces are critical in providing a quantitative prediction for the number of fractures and, hence, an interpretation of the initiation of capillary fractures. This solution also reveals that the depth of the gel is an important factor in the fracture process, as it can help mitigate large surface tractions; this finding is confirmed with experiments. We then develop a model for crack propagation by considering the transport of an inviscid fluid into the fracture tip of an incompressible material and find that a simple energy-conservation argument can explain the observed material-independent power law. We compare predictions for both linear elastic and neo-Hookean solids, finding that the latter better explains the observed exponent.

Circumferential graben and the structural evolution of Alba Mons, Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Öhman, Teemu; McGovern, Patrick J.

2014-05-01

Alba Mons is a unique, very extensive but shallow volcanotectonic construct in northern Tharsis, Mars. Numerous models have been presented to explain the formation of Alba Mons and its most characteristic feature, a wristwatch-like pattern of radial and circumferential graben. We used a wide selection of topographic datasets to characterize the fault throw variation on nine topographic transects across the circumferential graben in order to provide observational constraints for the different formation models, and to gain further insight into the evolution of Alba Mons. In most of the transects, summed throws from outwards-facing (away from the center of the volcano) faults are larger than from the inwards-facing (towards the center) ones. Only the very gently sloping western transects show the opposite, emphasizing the east-west-asymmetry of Alba Mons. 10-40% of the observed topographic relief of Alba Mons along the nine transects can be accounted for by this throw difference between the inwards- and outwards-facing faults. These results are consistent with predictions of models suggesting an uplift mechanism to explain the formation of the circumferential graben, but not with models invoking central subsidence. Horizontal extensional strain along the transects varies between 0.5% and 2%, consistent with strain predictions of the late-stage sill complex inflation model of McGovern et al. (McGovern, P.J., Solomon, S.C., Head J.W. III, Smith, D.E., Zuber M.T., Neumann, G.A. [2001]. J. Geophys. Res. 106(E10), 23769-23809).

Biological maturity-associated variance in peak power output and momentum in academy rugby union players.

PubMed

Howard, Sean M A; Cumming, Sean P; Atkinson, Mark; Malina, Robert M

2016-11-01

The study aimed to evaluate the mediating effect of biological maturation on anthropometrical measurements, performance indicators and subsequent selection in a group of academy rugby union players. Fifty-one male players 14-17 years of age were assessed for height, weight and BMI, and percentage of predicted mature status attained at the time of observation was used as an indicator of maturity status. Following this, initial sprint velocity (ISV), Wattbike peak power output (PPO) and initial sprint momentum (ISM) were assessed. A bias towards on-time (n = 44) and early (n = 7) maturers was evident in the total sample and magnified with age cohort. Relative to UK reference values, weight and height were above the 90th and 75th centiles, respectively. Significant (p ≤ .01) correlations were observed between maturity status and BMI (r = .48), weight (r = .63) and height (r = .48). Regression analysis (controlling for age) revealed that maturity status and height explained 68% of ISM variance; however, including BMI in the model attenuated the influence of maturity status below statistical significance (p = .72). Height and BMI explained 51% of PPO variance, while no initial significant predictors were identified for ISV. The sample consisted of players who were on-time and early in maturation with no late maturers represented. This was attributable, in part, to the mediating effect of maturation on body size, which, in turn, predicted performance variables.

Prediction of drinking water intake by dairy cows.

PubMed

Appuhamy, J A D R N; Judy, J V; Kebreab, E; Kononoff, P J

2016-09-01

Mathematical models that predict water intake by drinking, also known as free water intake (FWI), are useful in understanding water supply needed by animals on dairy farms. The majority of extant mathematical models for predicting FWI of dairy cows have been developed with data sets representing similar experimental conditions, not evaluated with modern cows, and often require dry matter intake (DMI) data, which may not be routinely available. The objectives of the study were to (1) develop a set of new empirical models for predicting FWI of lactating and dry cows with and without DMI using literature data, and (2) evaluate the new and the extant models using an independent set of FWI measurements made on modern cows. Random effect meta-regression analyses were conducted using 72 and 188 FWI treatment means with and without dietary electrolyte and daily mean ambient temperature (TMP) records, respectively, for lactating cows, and 19 FWI treatment means for dry cows. Milk yield, DMI, body weight, days in milk, dietary macro-nutrient contents, an aggregate milliequivalent concentration of dietary sodium and potassium (NaK), and TMP were used as potential covariates to the models. A model having positive relationships of DMI, dietary dry matter (DM%), and CP (CP%) contents, NaK, and TMP explained 76% of variability in FWI treatment means of lactating cows. When challenged on an independent data set (n=261), the model more accurately predicted FWI [root mean square prediction error as a percentage of average observed value (RMSPE%)=14.4%] compared with a model developed without NaK and TMP (RMSPE%=17.3%), and all extant models (RMSPE%≥15.7%). A model without DMI included positive relationships of milk yield, DM%, NaK, TMP, and days in milk, and explained 63% of variability in the FWI treatment means and performed well (RMSPE%=17.9%), when challenged on the independent data. New models for dry cows included positive relationships of DM% and TMP along with DMI or body weight. The new models with and without DMI explained 75 and 54% of the variability in FWI treatment means of dry cows and had RMSPE% of 12.8 and 15.2%, respectively, when evaluated with the literature data. The study offers a set of empirical models that can assist in determining drinking water needs of dairy farms. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Differences in energy expenditures and growth dilution explain higher PCB concentrations in male summer flounder

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, Charles P.; Jensen, Olaf P.; Rediske, Richard R.; O'Keefe, James P.; Vastano, Anthony R.; Pothoven, Steven A.

2016-01-01

Comparison of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations between the sexes of mature fish may reveal important behavioral and physiological differences between the sexes. We determined whole-fish PCB concentrations in 23 female summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus and 27 male summer flounder from New Jersey coastal waters. To investigate the potential for differences in diet or habitat utilization between the sexes, carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios were also determined. In 5 of the 23 female summer flounder, PCB concentrations in the somatic tissue and ovaries were determined. In addition, we used bioenergetics modeling to assess the contribution of the growth dilution effect to the observed difference in PCB concentrations between the sexes. Whole-fish PCB concentrations for females and males averaged 87 and 124 ng/g, respectively; thus males were 43% higher in PCB concentration compared with females. Carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios did not significantly differ between the sexes, suggesting that diet composition and habitat utilization did not vary between the sexes. Based on PCB determinations in the somatic tissue and ovaries, we predicted that PCB concentration of females would increase by 0.6%, on average, immediately after spawning due to release of eggs. Thus, the change in PCB concentration due to release of eggs did not explain the higher PCB concentrations observed in males. Bioenergetics modeling results indicated that the growth dilution effect could account for males being 19% higher in PCB concentration compared with females. Thus, the bulk of the observed difference in PCB concentrations between the sexes was not explained by growth dilution. We concluded that a higher rate of energy expenditure in males, stemming from greater activity and a greater resting metabolic rate, was most likely the primary driver for the observed difference in PCB concentrations between the sexes.

Heavy Tail Behavior of Rainfall Extremes across Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellarin, A.; Kreibich, H.; Vorogushyn, S.; Merz, B.

2017-12-01

Distributions are termed heavy-tailed if extreme values are more likely than would be predicted by probability distributions that have exponential asymptotic behavior. Heavy-tail behavior often leads to surprise, because historical observations can be a poor guide for the future. Heavy-tail behavior seems to be widespread for hydro-meteorological extremes, such as extreme rainfall and flood events. To date there have been only vague hints to explain under which conditions these extremes show heavy-tail behavior. We use an observational data set consisting of 11 climate variables at 1440 stations across Germany. This homogenized, gap-free data set covers 110 years (1901-2010) at daily resolution. We estimate the upper tail behavior, including its uncertainty interval, of daily precipitation extremes for the 1,440 stations at the annual and seasonal time scales. Different tail indicators are tested, including the shape parameter of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, the upper tail ratio and the obesity index. In a further step, we explore to which extent the tail behavior can be explained by geographical and climate factors. A large number of characteristics is derived, such as station elevation, degree of continentality, aridity, measures for quantifying the variability of humidity and wind velocity, or event-triggering large-scale atmospheric situation. The link between the upper tail behavior and these characteristics is investigated via data mining methods capable of detecting non-linear relationships in large data sets. This exceptionally rich observational data set, in terms of number of stations, length of time series and number of explaining variables, allows insights into the upper tail behavior which is rarely possible given the typical observational data sets available.

Can the relativistic light-bending model explain X-ray spectral variations of Seyfert galaxies?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizumoto, Misaki; Moriyama, Kotaro; Ebisawa, Ken; Mineshige, Shin; Kawanaka, Norita; Tsujimoto, Masahiro

2018-04-01

Many Seyfert galaxies are known to exhibit Fe-K broad emission line features in their X-ray energy spectra. The observed lines have three distinct features: (1) the line profiles are skewed and show significant low-energy tails, (2) the Fe-K band has low variability, which produces a broad and deep dip in the root-mean-square (rms) spectra, and (3) photons in this band have time lags behind those in the adjacent energy bands with amplitudes of several Rg/c, where Rg is the gravitational radius. The "relativistic light-bending model" is proposed to explain these observed features, where a compact X-ray source ("lamp post") above an extreme Kerr black hole illuminates the innermost area of the accretion disc. In this paper, we critically examine the relativistic light-bending model by computing the rms spectra and the lag features using a ray-tracing technique, when a lamp post moves vertically on the black hole spin axis. As a result, we found that the observed deep rms dip requires that the iron is extremely overabundant (≳10 solar), whereas the observed lag amplitude is consistent with the normal iron abundance. Furthermore, disappearance of the lag in the high-flux state requires a source height as high as ˜40 Rg, which contradicts the relativistically broad emission line feature. Our simulations agree with the data that the reverberation feature moves to lower frequencies with larger source height; however, if this scenario is correct, the simulations predict the detection of a clear Fe-K lag at low frequencies, which is not constrained in the data. Therefore, we conclude that the relativistic light-bending model may not explain the characteristic Fe-K spectral variations in Seyfert galaxies.

Differences in Energy Expenditures and Growth Dilution Explain Higher PCB Concentrations in Male Summer Flounder.

PubMed

Madenjian, Charles P; Jensen, Olaf P; Rediske, Richard R; O'Keefe, James P; Vastano, Anthony R; Pothoven, Steven A

2016-01-01

Comparison of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations between the sexes of mature fish may reveal important behavioral and physiological differences between the sexes. We determined whole-fish PCB concentrations in 23 female summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus and 27 male summer flounder from New Jersey coastal waters. To investigate the potential for differences in diet or habitat utilization between the sexes, carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios were also determined. In 5 of the 23 female summer flounder, PCB concentrations in the somatic tissue and ovaries were determined. In addition, we used bioenergetics modeling to assess the contribution of the growth dilution effect to the observed difference in PCB concentrations between the sexes. Whole-fish PCB concentrations for females and males averaged 87 and 124 ng/g, respectively; thus males were 43% higher in PCB concentration compared with females. Carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios did not significantly differ between the sexes, suggesting that diet composition and habitat utilization did not vary between the sexes. Based on PCB determinations in the somatic tissue and ovaries, we predicted that PCB concentration of females would increase by 0.6%, on average, immediately after spawning due to release of eggs. Thus, the change in PCB concentration due to release of eggs did not explain the higher PCB concentrations observed in males. Bioenergetics modeling results indicated that the growth dilution effect could account for males being 19% higher in PCB concentration compared with females. Thus, the bulk of the observed difference in PCB concentrations between the sexes was not explained by growth dilution. We concluded that a higher rate of energy expenditure in males, stemming from greater activity and a greater resting metabolic rate, was most likely the primary driver for the observed difference in PCB concentrations between the sexes.

Can the relativistic light-bending model explain X-ray spectral variations of Seyfert galaxies?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizumoto, Misaki; Moriyama, Kotaro; Ebisawa, Ken; Mineshige, Shin; Kawanaka, Norita; Tsujimoto, Masahiro

2018-06-01

Many Seyfert galaxies are known to exhibit Fe-K broad emission line features in their X-ray energy spectra. The observed lines have three distinct features: (1) the line profiles are skewed and show significant low-energy tails, (2) the Fe-K band has low variability, which produces a broad and deep dip in the root-mean-square (rms) spectra, and (3) photons in this band have time lags behind those in the adjacent energy bands with amplitudes of several Rg/c, where Rg is the gravitational radius. The "relativistic light-bending model" is proposed to explain these observed features, where a compact X-ray source ("lamp post") above an extreme Kerr black hole illuminates the innermost area of the accretion disc. In this paper, we critically examine the relativistic light-bending model by computing the rms spectra and the lag features using a ray-tracing technique, when a lamp post moves vertically on the black hole spin axis. As a result, we found that the observed deep rms dip requires that the iron is extremely overabundant (≳10 solar), whereas the observed lag amplitude is consistent with the normal iron abundance. Furthermore, disappearance of the lag in the high-flux state requires a source height as high as ˜40 Rg, which contradicts the relativistically broad emission line feature. Our simulations agree with the data that the reverberation feature moves to lower frequencies with larger source height; however, if this scenario is correct, the simulations predict the detection of a clear Fe-K lag at low frequencies, which is not constrained in the data. Therefore, we conclude that the relativistic light-bending model may not explain the characteristic Fe-K spectral variations in Seyfert galaxies.

Differences in Energy Expenditures and Growth Dilution Explain Higher PCB Concentrations in Male Summer Flounder

PubMed Central

Madenjian, Charles P.; Jensen, Olaf P.; Rediske, Richard R.; O’Keefe, James P.; Vastano, Anthony R.; Pothoven, Steven A.

2016-01-01

Comparison of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations between the sexes of mature fish may reveal important behavioral and physiological differences between the sexes. We determined whole-fish PCB concentrations in 23 female summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus and 27 male summer flounder from New Jersey coastal waters. To investigate the potential for differences in diet or habitat utilization between the sexes, carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios were also determined. In 5 of the 23 female summer flounder, PCB concentrations in the somatic tissue and ovaries were determined. In addition, we used bioenergetics modeling to assess the contribution of the growth dilution effect to the observed difference in PCB concentrations between the sexes. Whole-fish PCB concentrations for females and males averaged 87 and 124 ng/g, respectively; thus males were 43% higher in PCB concentration compared with females. Carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios did not significantly differ between the sexes, suggesting that diet composition and habitat utilization did not vary between the sexes. Based on PCB determinations in the somatic tissue and ovaries, we predicted that PCB concentration of females would increase by 0.6%, on average, immediately after spawning due to release of eggs. Thus, the change in PCB concentration due to release of eggs did not explain the higher PCB concentrations observed in males. Bioenergetics modeling results indicated that the growth dilution effect could account for males being 19% higher in PCB concentration compared with females. Thus, the bulk of the observed difference in PCB concentrations between the sexes was not explained by growth dilution. We concluded that a higher rate of energy expenditure in males, stemming from greater activity and a greater resting metabolic rate, was most likely the primary driver for the observed difference in PCB concentrations between the sexes. PMID:26794728

An upper bound on the electrical conductivity of hydrated oceanic mantle at the onset of dehydration melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naif, Samer

2018-01-01

Electrical conductivity soundings provide important constraints on the thermal and hydration state of the mantle. Recent seafloor magnetotelluric surveys have imaged the electrical conductivity structure of the oceanic upper mantle over a variety of plate ages. All regions show high conductivity (0.02 to 0.2 S/m) at 50 to 150 km depths that cannot be explained with a sub-solidus dry mantle regime without unrealistic temperature gradients. Instead, the conductivity observations require either a small amount of water stored in nominally anhydrous minerals or the presence of interconnected partial melts. This ambiguity leads to dramatically different interpretations on the origin of the asthenosphere. Here, I apply the damp peridotite solidus together with plate cooling models to determine the amount of H2O needed to induce dehydration melting as a function of depth and plate age. Then, I use the temperature and water content estimates to calculate the electrical conductivity of the oceanic mantle with a two-phase mixture of olivine and pyroxene from several competing empirical conductivity models. This represents the maximum potential conductivity of sub-solidus oceanic mantle at the limit of hydration. The results show that partial melt is required to explain the subset of the high conductivity observations beneath young seafloor, irrespective of which empirical model is applied. In contrast, the end-member empirical models predict either nearly dry (<20 wt ppm H2O) or slightly damp (<200 wt ppm H2O) asthenosphere for observations of mature seafloor. Since the former estimate is too dry compared with geochemical constraints from mid-ocean ridge basalts, this suggests the effect of water on mantle conductivity is less pronounced than currently predicted by the conductive end-member empirical model.

In silico Evolution of Lysis-Lysogeny Strategies Reproduces Observed Lysogeny Propensities in Temperate Bacteriophages

PubMed Central

Sinha, Vaibhhav; Goyal, Akshit; Svenningsen, Sine L.; Semsey, Szabolcs; Krishna, Sandeep

2017-01-01

Bacteriophages are the most abundant organisms on the planet and both lytic and temperate phages play key roles as shapers of ecosystems and drivers of bacterial evolution. Temperate phages can choose between (i) lysis: exploiting their bacterial hosts by producing multiple phage particles and releasing them by lysing the host cell, and (ii) lysogeny: establishing a potentially mutually beneficial relationship with the host by integrating their chromosome into the host cell's genome. Temperate phages exhibit lysogeny propensities in the curiously narrow range of 5–15%. For some temperate phages, the propensity is further regulated by the multiplicity of infection, such that single infections go predominantly lytic while multiple infections go predominantly lysogenic. We ask whether these observations can be explained by selection pressures in environments where multiple phage variants compete for the same host. Our models of pairwise competition, between phage variants that differ only in their propensity to lysogenize, predict the optimal lysogeny propensity to fall within the experimentally observed range. This prediction is robust to large variation in parameters such as the phage infection rate, burst size, decision rate, as well as bacterial growth rate, and initial phage to bacteria ratio. When we compete phage variants whose lysogeny strategies are allowed to depend upon multiplicity of infection, we find that the optimal strategy is one which switches from full lysis for single infections to full lysogeny for multiple infections. Previous attempts to explain lysogeny propensity have argued for bet-hedging that optimizes the response to fluctuating environmental conditions. Our results suggest that there is an additional selection pressure for lysogeny propensity within phage populations infecting a bacterial host, independent of environmental conditions. PMID:28798729

Alcohol-induced defects in hepatic transcytosis may be explained by impaired dynein function.

PubMed

Groebner, Jennifer L; Fernandez, David J; Tuma, Dean J; Tuma, Pamela L

2014-12-01

Alcoholic liver disease has been clinically well described, but the molecular mechanisms leading to hepatotoxicity have not been fully elucidated. Previously, we determined that microtubules are hyperacetylated and more stable in ethanol-treated WIF-B cells, VL-17A cells, liver slices, and in livers from ethanol-fed rats. From our recent studies, we believe that these modifications can explain alcohol-induced defects in microtubule motor-dependent protein trafficking including nuclear translocation of a subset of transcription factors. Since cytoplasmic dynein/dynactin is known to mediate both microtubule-dependent translocation and basolateral to apical/canalicular transcytosis, we predicted that transcytosis is impaired in ethanol-treated hepatic cells. We monitored transcytosis of three classes of newly synthesized canalicular proteins in polarized, hepatic WIF-B cells, an emerging model system for the study of liver disease. As predicted, canalicular delivery of all proteins tested was impaired in ethanol-treated cells. Unlike in control cells, transcytosing proteins were observed in discrete sub-canalicular puncta en route to the canalicular surface that aligned along acetylated microtubules. We further determined that the stalled transcytosing proteins colocalized with dynein/dynactin in treated cells. No changes in vesicle association were observed for either dynein or dynactin in ethanol-treated cells, but significantly enhanced dynein binding to microtubules was observed. From these results, we propose that enhanced dynein binding to microtubules in ethanol-treated cells leads to decreased motor processivity resulting in vesicle stalling and in impaired canalicular delivery. Our studies also importantly indicate that modulating cellular acetylation levels with clinically tolerated deacetylase agonists may be a novel therapeutic strategy for treating alcoholic liver disease.

Alcohol-induced defects in hepatic transcytosis may be explained by impaired dynein function

PubMed Central

Groebner, Jennifer L.; Fernandez, David J.; Tuma, Dean J.; Tuma, Pamela L.

2016-01-01

Alcoholic liver disease has been clinically well described, but the molecular mechanisms leading to hepatotoxicity have not been fully elucidated. Previously, we determined that microtubules are hyperacetylated and more stable in ethanol-treated WIF-B cells, VL-17A cells, liver slices, and in livers from ethanol-fed rats. From our recent studies, we believe that these modifications can explain alcohol-induced defects in microtubule motor-dependent protein trafficking including nuclear translocation of a subset of transcription factors. Since cytoplasmic dynein/dynactin is known to mediate both microtubule-dependent translocation and basolateral to apical/canalicular transcytosis, we predicted that transcytosis is impaired in ethanol-treated hepatic cells. We monitored transcytosis of three classes of newly synthesized canalicular proteins in polarized, hepatic WIF-B cells, an emerging model system for the study of liver disease. As predicted, canalicular delivery of all proteins tested was impaired in ethanol-treated cells. Unlike in control cells, transcytosing proteins were observed in discrete sub-canalicular puncta en route to the canalicular surface that aligned along acetylated microtubules. We further determined that the stalled transcytosing proteins colocalized with dynein/dynactin in treated cells. No changes in vesicle association were observed for either dynein or dynactin in ethanol-treated cells, but significantly enhanced dynein binding to micro-tubules was observed. From these results, we propose that enhanced dynein binding to microtubules in ethanol-treated cells leads to decreased motor processivity resulting in vesicle stalling and in impaired canalicular delivery. Our studies also importantly indicate that modulating cellular acetylation levels with clinically tolerated deacetylase agonists may be a novel therapeutic strategy for treating alcoholic liver disease. PMID:25148871

Effect prediction of identified SNPs linked to fruit quality and chilling injury in peach [Prunus persica (L.) Batsch].

PubMed

Martínez-García, Pedro J; Fresnedo-Ramírez, Jonathan; Parfitt, Dan E; Gradziel, Thomas M; Crisosto, Carlos H

2013-01-01

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are a fundamental source of genomic variation. Large SNP panels have been developed for Prunus species. Fruit quality traits are essential peach breeding program objectives since they determine consumer acceptance, fruit consumption, industry trends and cultivar adoption. For many cultivars, these traits are negatively impacted by cold storage, used to extend fruit market life. The major symptoms of chilling injury are lack of flavor, off flavor, mealiness, flesh browning, and flesh bleeding. A set of 1,109 SNPs was mapped previously and 67 were linked with these complex traits. The prediction of the effects associated with these SNPs on downstream products from the 'peach v1.0' genome sequence was carried out. A total of 2,163 effects were detected, 282 effects (non-synonymous, synonymous or stop codon gained) were located in exonic regions (13.04 %) and 294 placed in intronic regions (13.59 %). An extended list of genes and proteins that could be related to these traits was developed. Two SNP markers that explain a high percentage of the observed phenotypic variance, UCD_SNP_1084 and UCD_SNP_46, are associated with zinc finger (C3HC4-type RING finger) family protein and AOX1A (alternative oxidase 1a) protein groups, respectively. In addition, phenotypic variation suggests that the observed polymorphism for SNP UCD_SNP_1084 [A/G] mutation could be a candidate quantitative trait nucleotide affecting quantitative trait loci for mealiness. The interaction and expression of affected proteins could explain the variation observed in each individual and facilitate understanding of gene regulatory networks for fruit quality traits in peach.

Mortality predictors in a 60-year follow-up of adolescent males: exploring delinquency, socioeconomic status, IQ, high-school drop-out status, and personality.

PubMed

Trumbetta, Susan L; Seltzer, Benjamin K; Gottesman, Irving I; McIntyre, Kathleen M

2010-01-01

To examine whether socioeconomic status (SES), high school (HS) completion, IQ, and personality traits that predict delinquency in adolescence also could explain men's delinquency-related (Dq-r) mortality risk across the life span. Through a 60-year Social Security Death Index (SSDI) follow-up of 1812 men from Hathaway's adolescent normative Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) sample, we examined mortality risk at various ages and at various levels of prior delinquency severity. We examined SES (using family rent level), HS completion, IQ, and MMPI indicators simultaneously as mortality predictors and tested for SES (rent level) interactions with IQ and personality. We ascertained 418 decedents. Dq-r mortality peaked between ages 45 years to 64 years and continued through age 75 years, with high delinquency severity showing earlier and higher mortality risk. IQ and rent level failed to explain Dq-r mortality. HS completion robustly conferred mortality protection through ages 55 years and 75 years, explained IQ and rent level-related risk, but did not fully explain Dq-r risk. Dq-r MMPI scales, Psychopathic Deviate, and Social Introversion, respectively, predicted risk for and protection from mortality by age 75 years, explaining mortality risk otherwise attributable to delinquency. Wiggins' scales also explained Dq-r mortality risk, as Authority Conflict conferred risk for and Social Maladjustment and Hypomania conferred protection from mortality by age 75 years. HS completion robustly predicts mortality by ages 55 years and 75 years. Dq-r personality traits predict mortality by age 75 years, accounting, in part, for Dq-r mortality.

Exploring the Accretion Model of M87 and 3C 84 with the Faraday Rotation Measure Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ya-Ping; Yuan, Feng; Xie, Fu-Guo

2016-10-01

Low-luminosity active galactic nuclei (LLAGNs) are believed to be powered by an accretion-jet model, consisting of an inner advection-dominated accretion flow (ADAF), an outer truncated standard thin disk, and a jet; however, model degeneracy still exists in this framework. For example, the X-ray emission can originate from either the ADAF or the jet. The aim of the present work is to check these models with the Faraday rotation measure (RM) observations recently detected for two LLAGNs, M87 and 3C 84, in the sub-mm band. For M87, we find that the RM predicted by the model in which the X-ray emission originates from the ADAF is larger than the observed upper limit of RM by over two orders of magnitude, while the model in which the X-ray emission originates from the jet predicts a RM lower than the observed upper limit. For 3C 84, the sub-mm emission is found to be dominated by the jet component, while the Faraday screen is attributed to the ADAFs. This scenario can naturally explain the observed external origin of the RM and why the RM is found to be stable during a two-year interval although the sub-mm emission increases at the same period.

Vectorlike chiral fourth family to explain muon anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raby, Stuart; Trautner, Andreas

2018-05-01

The Standard Model (SM) is amended by one generation of quarks and leptons which are vectorlike (VL) under the SM gauge group but chiral with respect to a new U(1 ) 3 -4 gauge symmetry. We show that this model can simultaneously explain the deviation of the muon g -2 as well as the observed anomalies in b →s μ+μ- transitions without conflicting with the data on Higgs decays, lepton flavor violation, or Bs-B¯s mixing. The model is string theory motivated and Grand Unified Theory compatible, i.e. UV complete, and fits the data predicting VL quarks, leptons, and a massive Z' at the TeV scale, as well as τ →3 μ and τ →μ γ within reach of future experiments. The Higgs couplings to SM generations are automatically aligned in flavor space.

Improving students’ conceptions on fluid dynamics through peer teaching model with PDEODE (PTM-PDEODE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samsudin, A.; Fratiwi, N.; Amin, N.; Wiendartun; Supriyatman; Wibowo, F.; Faizin, M.; Costu, B.

2018-05-01

This study based on an importance of improving students’ conceptions and reduces students’ misconceptions on fluid dynamics concepts. Consequently, should be done the study through combining Peer Teaching Model (PTM) and PDEODE (Prediction, Discuss, Explain, Observe, Discuss and Explain) learning strategy (PTM-PDEODE). For the research methods, we used the 4D model (Defining, Designing, Developing, and Disseminating). The samples are 38 students (their ages were an average of 17 years-old) at one of the senior high schools in Bandung. The improvement of students’ conceptions was diagnosed through a four-tier test of fluid dynamics. At the disseminating phase, students’ conceptions of fluid dynamics concepts are increase after the use of PTM-PDEODE. In conclusion, the development of PTM-PDEODE is respectable enough to improve students’ conceptions on dinamics fluid.

Empirical evaluation of neutral interactions in host-parasite networks.

PubMed

Canard, E F; Mouquet, N; Mouillot, D; Stanko, M; Miklisova, D; Gravel, D

2014-04-01

While niche-based processes have been invoked extensively to explain the structure of interaction networks, recent studies propose that neutrality could also be of great importance. Under the neutral hypothesis, network structure would simply emerge from random encounters between individuals and thus would be directly linked to species abundance. We investigated the impact of species abundance distributions on qualitative and quantitative metrics of 113 host-parasite networks. We analyzed the concordance between neutral expectations and empirical observations at interaction, species, and network levels. We found that species abundance accurately predicts network metrics at all levels. Despite host-parasite systems being constrained by physiology and immunology, our results suggest that neutrality could also explain, at least partially, their structure. We hypothesize that trait matching would determine potential interactions between species, while abundance would determine their realization.

SCORE should be preferred to Framingham to predict cardiovascular death in French population.

PubMed

Marchant, Ivanny; Boissel, Jean-Pierre; Kassaï, Behrouz; Bejan, Theodora; Massol, Jacques; Vidal, Chrystelle; Amsallem, Emmanuel; Naudin, Florence; Galan, Pilar; Czernichow, Sébastien; Nony, Patrice; Gueyffier, François

2009-10-01

Numerous studies have examined the validity of available scores to predict the absolute cardiovascular risk. We developed a virtual population based on data representative of the French population and compared the performances of the two most popular risk equations to predict cardiovascular death: Framingham and SCORE. A population was built based on official French demographic statistics and summarized data from representative observational studies. The 10-year coronary and cardiovascular death risk and their ratio were computed for each individual by SCORE and Framingham equations. The resulting rates were compared with those derived from national vital statistics. Framingham overestimated French coronary deaths by 2.8 in men and 1.9 in women, and cardiovascular deaths by 1.5 in men and 1.3 in women. SCORE overestimated coronary death by 1.6 in men and 1.7 in women, and underestimated cardiovascular death by 0.94 in men and 0.85 in women. Our results revealed an exaggerated representation of coronary among cardiovascular death predicted by Framingham, with coronary death exceeding cardiovascular death in some individual profiles. Sensitivity analyses gave some insights to explain the internal inconsistency of the Framingham equations. Evidence is that SCORE should be preferred to Framingham to predict cardiovascular death risk in French population. This discrepancy between prediction scores is likely to be observed in other populations. To improve the validation of risk equations, specific guidelines should be issued to harmonize the outcomes definition across epidemiologic studies. Prediction models should be calibrated for risk differences in the space and time dimensions.

Mechanics model for actin-based motility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yuan

2009-02-01

We present here a mechanics model for the force generation by actin polymerization. The possible adhesions between the actin filaments and the load surface, as well as the nucleation and capping of filament tips, are included in this model on top of the well-known elastic Brownian ratchet formulation. A closed form solution is provided from which the force-velocity relationship, summarizing the mechanics of polymerization, can be drawn. Model predictions on the velocity of moving beads driven by actin polymerization are consistent with experiment observations. This model also seems capable of explaining the enhanced actin-based motility of Listeria monocytogenes and beads by the presence of Vasodilator-stimulated phosphoprotein, as observed in recent experiments.

The beam-driven chromospheric evaporation model of solar flares - A model not supported by observations from nonimpulsive large flares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feldman, U.

1990-01-01

Most large solar flares exhibit hard X-ray emission which is usually impulsive, as well as thermal soft X-ray emission, which is gradual. The beam-driven chromospheric evaporation model of solar flares was proposed to explain the origin of the soft X-ray emitting flare plasma. A careful evaluation of the issue under discussion reveals contradictions between predictions from the theoretical chromospheric evaporation model and actual observations from a set of large X- and M-type flares. It is shown that although the soft X-ray and hard X-ray emissions are a result of the same flare, one is not a result of the other.

The Real Problem with MOND

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dodelson, Scott

Gravitational potentials in the cosmos are deeper than expected from observed visible objects, a phenomenon usually attributed to dark matter, presumably in the form of a new fundamental particle. Until such a particle is observed, the jury remains out on dark matter, and modified gravity models must be considered. The class of models reducing to modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND) in the weak field limit does an excellent job fitting the rotation curves of galaxies, predicting the relation between baryonic mass and velocity in gas-dominated galaxies, and explaining the properties of the local group. Several of the initial challenges facing MOND have been overcome, while others remain. Here we point out the most severe challenge facing MOND.

Stochastic Growth Theory of Spatially-Averaged Distributions of Langmuir Fields in Earth's Foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boshuizen, Christopher R.; Cairns, Iver H.; Robinson, P. A.

2001-01-01

Langmuir-like waves in the foreshock of Earth are characteristically bursty and irregular, and are the subject of a number of recent studies. Averaged over the foreshock, it is observed that the probability distribution is power-law P(bar)(log E) in the wave field E with the bar denoting this averaging over position, In this paper it is shown that stochastic growth theory (SGT) can explain a power-law spatially-averaged distributions P(bar)(log E), when the observed power-law variations of the mean and standard deviation of log E with position are combined with the log normal statistics predicted by SGT at each location.

Mechanics model for actin-based motility.

PubMed

Lin, Yuan

2009-02-01

We present here a mechanics model for the force generation by actin polymerization. The possible adhesions between the actin filaments and the load surface, as well as the nucleation and capping of filament tips, are included in this model on top of the well-known elastic Brownian ratchet formulation. A closed form solution is provided from which the force-velocity relationship, summarizing the mechanics of polymerization, can be drawn. Model predictions on the velocity of moving beads driven by actin polymerization are consistent with experiment observations. This model also seems capable of explaining the enhanced actin-based motility of Listeria monocytogenes and beads by the presence of Vasodilator-stimulated phosphoprotein, as observed in recent experiments.

A Reevaluation of Airborne HO(x) Observations from NASA Field Campaigns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, Jennifer; Crawford, James H.; Chen, Gao; Brune, William H.; Faloona, Ian C.; Tan, David; Harder, Hartwig; Martinez, Monica

2006-01-01

In-situ observations of tropospheric HO(x) (OH and HO2) obtained during four NASA airborne campaigns (SUCCESS, SONEX, PEM-Tropics B and TRACE-P) are reevaluated using the NASA Langley time-dependent photochemical box model. Special attention is given to previously diagnosed discrepancies between observed and predicted HO2 which increase with higher NO(x) levels and at high solar zenith angles. This analysis shows that much of the model discrepancy at high NO(x) during SUCCESS can be attributed to modeling observations at time-scales too long to capture the nonlinearity of HO(x) chemistry under highly variable conditions for NO(x). Discrepancies at high NO(x) during SONEX can be moderated to a large extent by complete use of all available precursor observations. Differences in kinetic rate coefficients and photolysis frequencies available for previous studies versus current recommendations also explain some of the disparity. Each of these causes is shown to exert greater influence with increasing NO(x) due to both the chemical nonlinearity between HO(x) and NO(x) and the increased sensitivity of HO(x) to changes in sources at high NO(x). In contrast, discrepancies at high solar zenith angles will persist until an adequate nighttime source of HO(x) can be identified. It is important to note that this analysis falls short of fully eliminating the issue of discrepancies between observed and predicted HO(x) for high NO(x) environments. These discrepancies are not resolved with the above causes in other data sets from ground-based field studies. Nevertheless, these results highlight important considerations in the application of box models to observationally based predictions of HO(x) radicals.

Quasar Probing Galaxies: New Constraints on Cold Gas Accretion at Z=0.2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Stephanie H.

2017-07-01

Galactic disks grow by accreting cooling gas from the circumgalactic medium, and yet direct observations of inflowing gas remain sparse. We observed quasars behind star-forming galaxies and measured the kinematics of circumgalactic absorption. Near the galaxy plane, the Mg II Doppler shifts share the same sign as the galactic rotation, which implies the gas co-rotates with the galaxy disk. However, a rotating disk model fails to explain the observed broad velocity range. Gas spiraling inward near the disk plane offers a plausible explanation for the lower velocity gas. We will discuss the sizes of these circumgalactic disks, the properties of their host galaxies, and predictions for the spiral arms. Our results provide direct evidence for cold gas accretion at redshift z=0.2.

Hard two-photon contribution to elastic lepton-proton scattering determined by the OLYMPUS experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasell, D. K.; OLYMPUS Collaboration

2018-02-01

The OLYMPUS collaboration has recently made a precise measurement of the positron-proton to electron-proton elastic scattering cross section ratio, R 2γ, over a wide range of the virtual photon polarization, 0.456 < ɛ < 0.978. This provides a direct measure of hard two-photon exchange in elastic lepton-proton scattering widely thought to explain the discrepancy observed between unpolarized and polarized measurements of the proton form factor ratio, {μ }p{G}Ep/{G}Mp. The OLYMPUS results are small, within 1% on unity, over the range of momentum transfers measured and significantly lower than theoretical calculations that can explain part of the observed discrepancy in terms of two-photon exchange at higher momentum transfers. However, the results are in reasonable agreement with predictions based on phenomenological fits to the available form factor data. The motivation for measuring R 2γ will be presented followed by a description of the OLYMPUS experiment. The importance of radiative corrections in the analysis will be shown also. Then we will present the OLYMPUS results and compare with results from two similar experiments and theoretical calculations.

THE ANATOMY OF A LONG GAMMA-RAY BURST: A SIMPLE CLASSIFICATION SCHEME FOR THE EMISSION MECHANISM(S)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bégué, D.; Burgess, J. Michael, E-mail: jamesb@kth.se, E-mail: damienb@kth.se

2016-03-20

Ultra-relativistic motion and efficient conversion of kinetic energy to radiation are required by gamma-ray burst (GRB) observations, yet they are difficult to simultaneously achieve. Three leading mechanisms have been proposed to explain the observed emission emanating from GRB outflows: radiation from either relativistic internal or external shocks, or thermal emission from a photosphere. Previous works were dedicated to independently treating these three mechanisms and arguing for a sole, unique origin of the prompt emission of GRBs. In contrast, herein, we first explain why all three models are valid mechanisms and that a contribution from each of them is expected inmore » the prompt phase. Additionally, we show that a single parameter, the dimensionless entropy of the GRB outflow, determines which mechanism contributes the most to the emission. More specifically, internal shocks dominate for low values of the dimensionless entropy, external shocks for intermediate values, and finally, photospheric emission for large values. We present a unified framework for the emission mechanisms of GRBs with easily testable predictions for each process.« less

Cognitive Modeling of Individual Variation in Reference Production and Comprehension

PubMed Central

Hendriks, Petra

2016-01-01

A challenge for most theoretical and computational accounts of linguistic reference is the observation that language users vary considerably in their referential choices. Part of the variation observed among and within language users and across tasks may be explained from variation in the cognitive resources available to speakers and listeners. This paper presents a computational model of reference production and comprehension developed within the cognitive architecture ACT-R. Through simulations with this ACT-R model, it is investigated how cognitive constraints interact with linguistic constraints and features of the linguistic discourse in speakers’ production and listeners’ comprehension of referring expressions in specific tasks, and how this interaction may give rise to variation in referential choice. The ACT-R model of reference explains and predicts variation among language users in their referential choices as a result of individual and task-related differences in processing speed and working memory capacity. Because of limitations in their cognitive capacities, speakers sometimes underspecify or overspecify their referring expressions, and listeners sometimes choose incorrect referents or are overly liberal in their interpretation of referring expressions. PMID:27092101

Can nuclear physics explain the anomaly observed in the internal pair production in the Beryllium-8 nucleus?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xilin; Miller, Gerald A.

2017-10-01

Recently the experimentalists in Krasznahorkay (2016) [1] announced observing an unexpected enhancement of the e+-e- pair production signal in one of the 8Be nuclear transitions. The subsequent studies have been focused on possible explanations based on introducing new types of particle. In this work, we improve the nuclear physics modeling of the reaction by studying the pair emission anisotropy and the interferences between different multipoles in an effective field theory inspired framework, and examine their possible relevance to the anomaly. The connection between the previously measured on-shell photon production and the pair production in the same nuclear transitions is established. These improvements, absent in the original experimental analysis, should be included in extracting new particle's properties from the experiment of this type. However, the improvements can not explain the anomaly. We then explore the nuclear transition form factor as a possible origin of the anomaly, and find the required form factor to be unrealistic for the 8Be nucleus. The reduction of the anomaly's significance by simply rescaling our predicted event count is also investigated.

Anisotropy of Earth's D'' layer and stacking faults in the MgSiO3 post-perovskite phase.

PubMed

Oganov, Artem R; Martonák, Roman; Laio, Alessandro; Raiteri, Paolo; Parrinello, Michele

2005-12-22

The post-perovskite phase of (Mg,Fe)SiO3 is believed to be the main mineral phase of the Earth's lowermost mantle (the D'' layer). Its properties explain numerous geophysical observations associated with this layer-for example, the D'' discontinuity, its topography and seismic anisotropy within the layer. Here we use a novel simulation technique, first-principles metadynamics, to identify a family of low-energy polytypic stacking-fault structures intermediate between the perovskite and post-perovskite phases. Metadynamics trajectories identify plane sliding involving the formation of stacking faults as the most favourable pathway for the phase transition, and as a likely mechanism for plastic deformation of perovskite and post-perovskite. In particular, the predicted slip planes are {010} for perovskite (consistent with experiment) and {110} for post-perovskite (in contrast to the previously expected {010} slip planes). Dominant slip planes define the lattice preferred orientation and elastic anisotropy of the texture. The {110} slip planes in post-perovskite require a much smaller degree of lattice preferred orientation to explain geophysical observations of shear-wave anisotropy in the D'' layer.

Error-based analysis of optimal tuning functions explains phenomena observed in sensory neurons.

PubMed

Yaeli, Steve; Meir, Ron

2010-01-01

Biological systems display impressive capabilities in effectively responding to environmental signals in real time. There is increasing evidence that organisms may indeed be employing near optimal Bayesian calculations in their decision-making. An intriguing question relates to the properties of optimal encoding methods, namely determining the properties of neural populations in sensory layers that optimize performance, subject to physiological constraints. Within an ecological theory of neural encoding/decoding, we show that optimal Bayesian performance requires neural adaptation which reflects environmental changes. Specifically, we predict that neuronal tuning functions possess an optimal width, which increases with prior uncertainty and environmental noise, and decreases with the decoding time window. Furthermore, even for static stimuli, we demonstrate that dynamic sensory tuning functions, acting at relatively short time scales, lead to improved performance. Interestingly, the narrowing of tuning functions as a function of time was recently observed in several biological systems. Such results set the stage for a functional theory which may explain the high reliability of sensory systems, and the utility of neuronal adaptation occurring at multiple time scales.

Failed Supernovae Explain the Compact Remnant Mass Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kochanek, C. S.

2014-04-01

One explanation for the absence of higher mass red supergiants (16.5 M ⊙ <~ M <~ 25 M ⊙) as the progenitors of Type IIP supernovae (SNe) is that they die in failed SNe creating black holes. Simulations show that such failed SNe still eject their hydrogen envelopes in a weak transient, leaving a black hole with the mass of the star's helium core (5-8 M ⊙). Here we show that this naturally explains the typical masses of observed black holes and the gap between neutron star and black hole masses without any fine-tuning of stellar mass loss, binary mass transfer, or the SN mechanism, beyond having it fail in a mass range where many progenitor models have density structures that make the explosions more likely to fail. There is no difficulty including this ~20% population of failed SNe in any accounting of SN types over the progenitor mass function. And, other than patience, there is no observational barrier to either detecting these black hole formation events or limiting their rates to be well below this prediction.

Posttransplant Immune Activation: Innocent Bystander or Insidious Culprit of Posttransplant Accelerated Atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Ducloux, Didier; Bamoulid, Jamal; Crepin, Thomas; Rebibou, Jean-Michel; Courivaud, Cecile; Saas, Philippe

2017-09-01

Cardiovascular disease is a major cause of morbidity, disability, and mortality in kidney transplant patients. Cumulative reports indicate that the excessive risk of cardiovascular events is not entirely explained by the increased prevalence of traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory disease, and it has been postulated that posttransplant immune disturbances may explain the gap between the predicted and observed risks of cardiovascular events. Although concordant data suggest that innate immunity contributes to the posttransplant accelerated atherosclerosis, only few arguments plead for a role of adaptive immunity. We report and discuss here consistent data demonstrating that CD8 + T cell activation is a frequent posttransplant immune feature that may have pro-atherogenic effects. Expansion of exhausted/activated CD8 + T cells in kidney transplant recipients is stimulated by several factors including cytomegalovirus infections, lymphodepletive therapy (e.g., antithymocyte globulins), chronic allogeneic stimulation, and a past history of renal insufficiency. This is observed in the setting of decreased thymic activity, a process also found in elderly individuals and reflecting accelerated immune senescence.

First Test of Stochastic Growth Theory for Langmuir Waves in Earth's Foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cairns, Iver H.; Robinson, P. A.

1997-01-01

This paper presents the first test of whether stochastic growth theory (SGT) can explain the detailed characteristics of Langmuir-like waves in Earth's foreshock. A period with unusually constant solar wind magnetic field is analyzed. The observed distributions P(logE) of wave fields E for two intervals with relatively constant spacecraft location (DIFF) are shown to agree well with the fundamental prediction of SGT, that P(logE) is Gaussian in log E. This stochastic growth can be accounted for semi-quantitatively in terms of standard foreshock beam parameters and a model developed for interplanetary type III bursts. Averaged over the entire period with large variations in DIFF, the P(logE) distribution is a power-law with index approximately -1; this is interpreted in terms of convolution of intrinsic, spatially varying P(logE) distributions with a probability function describing ISEE's residence time at a given DIFF. Wave data from this interval thus provide good observational evidence that SGT can sometimes explain the clumping, burstiness, persistence, and highly variable fields of the foreshock Langmuir-like waves.

First test of stochastic growth theory for Langmuir waves in Earth's foreshock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cairns, Iver H.; Robinson, P. A.

This paper presents the first test of whether stochastic growth theory (SGT) can explain the detailed characteristics of Langmuir-like waves in Earth's foreshock. A period with unusually constant solar wind magnetic field is analyzed. The observed distributions P(log E) of wave fields E for two intervals with relatively constant spacecraft location (DIFF) are shown to agree well with the fundamental prediction of SGT, that P(log E) is Gaussian in log E. This stochastic growth can be accounted for semi-quantitatively in terms of standard foreshock beam parameters and a model developed for interplanetary type III bursts. Averaged over the entire period with large variations in DIFF, the P(log E) distribution is a power-law with index ˜ -1 this is interpreted in terms of convolution of intrinsic, spatially varying P(log E) distributions with a probability function describing ISEE's residence time at a given DIFF. Wave data from this interval thus provide good observational evidence that SGT can sometimes explain the clumping, burstiness, persistence, and highly variable fields of the foreshock Langmuir-like waves.

Synaptic Transmission Optimization Predicts Expression Loci of Long-Term Plasticity.

PubMed

Costa, Rui Ponte; Padamsey, Zahid; D'Amour, James A; Emptage, Nigel J; Froemke, Robert C; Vogels, Tim P

2017-09-27

Long-term modifications of neuronal connections are critical for reliable memory storage in the brain. However, their locus of expression-pre- or postsynaptic-is highly variable. Here we introduce a theoretical framework in which long-term plasticity performs an optimization of the postsynaptic response statistics toward a given mean with minimal variance. Consequently, the state of the synapse at the time of plasticity induction determines the ratio of pre- and postsynaptic modifications. Our theory explains the experimentally observed expression loci of the hippocampal and neocortical synaptic potentiation studies we examined. Moreover, the theory predicts presynaptic expression of long-term depression, consistent with experimental observations. At inhibitory synapses, the theory suggests a statistically efficient excitatory-inhibitory balance in which changes in inhibitory postsynaptic response statistics specifically target the mean excitation. Our results provide a unifying theory for understanding the expression mechanisms and functions of long-term synaptic transmission plasticity. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

CFD Validation with Experiment and Verification with Physics of a Propellant Damping Device

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, H. Q.; Peugeot, John

2011-01-01

This paper will document our effort in validating a coupled fluid-structure interaction CFD tool in predicting a damping device performance in the laboratory condition. Consistently good comparisons of "blind" CFD predictions against experimental data under various operation conditions, design parameters, and cryogenic environment will be presented. The power of the coupled CFD-structures interaction code in explaining some unexpected phenomena of the device observed during the technology development will be illustrated. The evolution of the damper device design inside the LOX tank will be used to demonstrate the contribution of the tool in understanding, optimization and implementation of LOX damper in Ares I vehicle. It is due to the present validation effort, the LOX damper technology has matured to TRL 5. The present effort has also contributed to the transition of the technology from an early conceptual observation to the baseline design of thrust oscillation mitigation for the Ares I within a 10 month period.

Crossover from equilibration to aging: Nonequilibrium theory versus simulations.

PubMed

Mendoza-Méndez, P; Lázaro-Lázaro, E; Sánchez-Díaz, L E; Ramírez-González, P E; Pérez-Ángel, G; Medina-Noyola, M

2017-08-01

Understanding glasses and the glass transition requires comprehending the nature of the crossover from the ergodic (or equilibrium) regime, in which the stationary properties of the system have no history dependence, to the mysterious glass transition region, where the measured properties are nonstationary and depend on the protocol of preparation. In this work we use nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations to test the main features of the crossover predicted by the molecular version of the recently developed multicomponent nonequilibrium self-consistent generalized Langevin equation theory. According to this theory, the glass transition involves the abrupt passage from the ordinary pattern of full equilibration to the aging scenario characteristic of glass-forming liquids. The same theory explains that this abrupt transition will always be observed as a blurred crossover due to the unavoidable finiteness of the time window of any experimental observation. We find that within their finite waiting-time window, the simulations confirm the general trends predicted by the theory.

Relatedness predicts multiple measures of investment in cooperative nest construction in sociable weavers

PubMed Central

Leighton, Gavin M.; Echeverri, Sebastian; Heinrich, Dirk; Kolberg, Holger

2015-01-01

Although communal goods are often critical to society, they are simultaneously susceptible to exploitation and are evolutionarily stable only if mechanisms exist to curtail exploitation. Mechanisms such as punishment and kin selection have been offered as general explanations for how communal resources can be maintained. Evidence for these mechanisms comes largely from humans and social insects, leaving their generality in question. To assess how communal resources are maintained, we observed cooperative nest construction in sociable weavers (Philetairus socius). The communal nest of sociable weavers provides thermal benefits for all individuals but requires continual maintenance. We observed cooperative nest construction and also recorded basic morphological characteristics. We also collected blood samples, performed next-generation sequencing, and isolated 2358 variable single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to estimate relatedness. We find that relatedness predicts investment in cooperative nest construction, while no other morphological characters significantly explain cooperative output. We argue that indirect benefits are a critical fitness component for maintaining the cooperative behavior that maintains the communal good. PMID:26726282

Experiments and Model for Serration Statistics in Low-Entropy, Medium-Entropy, and High-Entropy Alloys

DOE PAGES

Carroll, Robert; Lee, Chi; Tsai, Che-Wei; ...

2015-11-23

In this study, high-entropy alloys (HEAs) are new alloys that contain five or more elements in roughly-equal proportion. We present new experiments and theory on the deformation behavior of HEAs under slow stretching (straining), and observe differences, compared to conventional alloys with fewer elements. For a specific range of temperatures and strain-rates, HEAs deform in a jerky way, with sudden slips that make it difficult to precisely control the deformation. An analytic model explains these slips as avalanches of slipping weak spots and predicts the observed slip statistics, stress-strain curves, and their dependence on temperature, strain-rate, and material composition. Themore » ratio of the weak spots’ healing rate to the strain-rate is the main tuning parameter, reminiscent of the Portevin- LeChatellier effect and time-temperature superposition in polymers. Our model predictions agree with the experimental results. The proposed widely-applicable deformation mechanism is useful for deformation control and alloy design.« less

Effect of body size and temperature on respiration of Galaxias maculatus (Pisces: Galaxiidae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milano, D.; Vigliano, P.H.; Beauchamp, David A.

2017-01-01

Body mass and temperature are primary determinants of metabolic rate in ectothermic animals. Oxygen consumption of post-larval Galaxias maculatus was measured in respirometry trials under different temperatures (5–21°C) and varying body masses (0.1–>1.5 g) spanning a relevant range of thermal conditions and sizes. Specific respiration rates (R in g O2 g−1 d−1) declined as a power function of body mass and increased exponentially with temperature and was expressed as: R = 0.0007 * W −0.31 * e 0.13 * T. The ability of this model to predict specific respiration rate was evaluated by comparing observed values with those predicted by the model. Our findings suggest that the respiration rate of G. maculatus is the result of multiple interactive processes (intrinsic and extrinsic factors) that modulate each other in ‘meta-mechanistic’ ways; this would help to explain the species’ ability to undergo the complex ontogenetic habitat shifts observed in the lakes of the Andean Patagonic range.

Magnetoconductance oscillations at a nanoparticle film-superconductor interface: a means for probing flux penetration depth.

PubMed

Dunford, Jeffrey L; Dhirani, Al-Amin

2008-11-12

Interfaces between disordered normal materials and superconductors (S) can exhibit 'reflectionless tunnelling' (RT)-a phenomenon that arises from repeated disorder-driven elastic scattering, multiple Andreev reflections, and electron/hole interference. RT has been used to explain zero-bias conductance peaks (ZBCPs) observed using doped semiconductors and evaporated granular metal films as the disordered normal materials. Recently, in addition to ZBCPs, magnetoconductance oscillations predicted by RT theory have been observed using a novel normal disordered material: self-assembled nanoparticle films. In the present study, we find that the period of these oscillations decreases as temperature (T) increases. This suggests that the magnetic flux associated with interfering pathways increases accordingly. We propose that the increasing flux can be attributed to magnetic field penetration into S as [Formula: see text]. This model agrees remarkably well with known T dependence of penetration depth predicted by Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer theory. Our study shows that this additional region of flux is significant and must be considered in experimental and theoretical studies of RT.

Coactivation of response initiation processes with redundant signals.

PubMed

Maslovat, Dana; Hajj, Joëlle; Carlsen, Anthony N

2018-05-14

During reaction time (RT) tasks, participants respond faster to multiple stimuli from different modalities as compared to a single stimulus, a phenomenon known as the redundant signal effect (RSE). Explanations for this effect typically include coactivation arising from the multiple stimuli, which results in enhanced processing of one or more response production stages. The current study compared empirical RT data with the predictions of a model in which initiation-related activation arising from each stimulus is additive. Participants performed a simple wrist extension RT task following either a visual go-signal, an auditory go-signal, or both stimuli with the auditory stimulus delayed between 0 and 125 ms relative to the visual stimulus. Results showed statistical equivalence between the predictions of an additive initiation model and the observed RT data, providing novel evidence that the RSE can be explained via a coactivation of initiation-related processes. It is speculated that activation summation occurs at the thalamus, leading to the observed facilitation of response initiation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Individual variation and the resolution of conflict over parental care in penduline tits

PubMed Central

van Dijk, René E.; Székely, Tamás; Komdeur, Jan; Pogány, Ákos; Fawcett, Tim W.; Weissing, Franz J.

2012-01-01

Eurasian penduline tits (Remiz pendulinus) have an unusually diverse breeding system consisting of frequent male and female polygamy, and uniparental care by the male or the female. Intriguingly, 30 to 40 per cent of all nests are deserted by both parents. To understand the evolution of this diverse breeding system and frequent clutch desertion, we use 6 years of field data to derive fitness expectations for males and females depending on whether or not they care for their offspring. The resulting payoff matrix corresponds to an asymmetric Snowdrift Game with two alternative evolutionarily stable strategies (ESSs): female-only and male-only care. This, however, does not explain the polymorphism in care strategies and frequent biparental desertion, because theory predicts that one of the two ESSs should have spread to fixation. Using a bootstrapping approach, we demonstrate that taking account of individual variation in payoffs explains the patterns of care better than a model based on the average population payoff matrix. In particular, a model incorporating differences in male attractiveness closely predicts the observed frequencies of male and female desertion. Our work highlights the need for a new generation of individual-based evolutionary game-theoretic models. PMID:22189404

Individual variation and the resolution of conflict over parental care in penduline tits.

PubMed

van Dijk, René E; Székely, Tamás; Komdeur, Jan; Pogány, Akos; Fawcett, Tim W; Weissing, Franz J

2012-05-22

Eurasian penduline tits (Remiz pendulinus) have an unusually diverse breeding system consisting of frequent male and female polygamy, and uniparental care by the male or the female. Intriguingly, 30 to 40 per cent of all nests are deserted by both parents. To understand the evolution of this diverse breeding system and frequent clutch desertion, we use 6 years of field data to derive fitness expectations for males and females depending on whether or not they care for their offspring. The resulting payoff matrix corresponds to an asymmetric Snowdrift Game with two alternative evolutionarily stable strategies (ESSs): female-only and male-only care. This, however, does not explain the polymorphism in care strategies and frequent biparental desertion, because theory predicts that one of the two ESSs should have spread to fixation. Using a bootstrapping approach, we demonstrate that taking account of individual variation in payoffs explains the patterns of care better than a model based on the average population payoff matrix. In particular, a model incorporating differences in male attractiveness closely predicts the observed frequencies of male and female desertion. Our work highlights the need for a new generation of individual-based evolutionary game-theoretic models.

Differential coactivation in a redundant signals task with weak and strong go/no-go stimuli.

PubMed

Minakata, Katsumi; Gondan, Matthias

2018-05-01

When participants respond to stimuli of two sources, response times (RTs) are often faster when both stimuli are presented together relative to the RTs obtained when presented separately (redundant signals effect [RSE]). Race models and coactivation models can explain the RSE. In race models, separate channels process the two stimulus components, and the faster processing time determines the overall RT. In audiovisual experiments, the RSE is often higher than predicted by race models, and coactivation models have been proposed that assume integrated processing of the two stimuli. Where does coactivation occur? We implemented a go/no-go task with randomly intermixed weak and strong auditory, visual, and audiovisual stimuli. In one experimental session, participants had to respond to strong stimuli and withhold their response to weak stimuli. In the other session, these roles were reversed. Interestingly, coactivation was only observed in the experimental session in which participants had to respond to strong stimuli. If weak stimuli served as targets, results were widely consistent with the race model prediction. The pattern of results contradicts the inverse effectiveness law. We present two models that explain the result in terms of absolute and relative thresholds.

A Bragg glass phase in the vortex lattice of a type II superconductor.

PubMed

Klein, T; Joumard, I; Blanchard, S; Marcus, J; Cubitt, R; Giamarchi, T; Le Doussal, P

2001-09-27

Although crystals are usually quite stable, they are sensitive to a disordered environment: even an infinitesimal amount of impurities can lead to the destruction of crystalline order. The resulting state of matter has been a long-standing puzzle. Until recently it was believed to be an amorphous state in which the crystal would break into 'crystallites'. But a different theory predicts the existence of a novel phase of matter: the so-called Bragg glass, which is a glass and yet nearly as ordered as a perfect crystal. The 'lattice' of vortices that contain magnetic flux in type II superconductors provide a good system to investigate these ideas. Here we show that neutron-diffraction data of the vortex lattice provides unambiguous evidence for a weak, power-law decay of the crystalline order characteristic of a Bragg glass. The theory also predicts accurately the electrical transport properties of superconductors; it naturally explains the observed phase transitions and the dramatic jumps in the critical current associated with the melting of the Bragg glass. Moreover, the model explains experiments as diverse as X-ray scattering in disordered liquid crystals and the conductivity of electronic crystals.

Protein hydrogen exchange: Testing current models

PubMed Central

Skinner, John J; Lim, Woon K; Bédard, Sabrina; Black, Ben E; Englander, S Walter

2012-01-01

To investigate the determinants of protein hydrogen exchange (HX), HX rates of most of the backbone amide hydrogens of Staphylococcal nuclease were measured by NMR methods. A modified analysis was used to improve accuracy for the faster hydrogens. HX rates of both near surface and well buried hydrogens are spread over more than 7 orders of magnitude. These results were compared with previous hypotheses for HX rate determination. Contrary to a common assumption, proximity to the surface of the native protein does not usually produce fast exchange. The slow HX rates for unprotected surface hydrogens are not well explained by local electrostatic field. The ability of buried hydrogens to exchange is not explained by a solvent penetration mechanism. The exchange rates of structurally protected hydrogens are not well predicted by algorithms that depend only on local interactions or only on transient unfolding reactions. These observations identify some of the present difficulties of HX rate prediction and suggest the need for returning to a detailed hydrogen by hydrogen analysis to examine the bases of structure-rate relationships, as described in the companion paper (Skinner et al., Protein Sci 2012;21:996–1005). PMID:22544567

Realized niches explain spatial gradients in seasonal abundance of phytoplankton groups in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Wupeng; Wang, Lei; Laws, Edward; Xie, Yuyuan; Chen, Jixin; Liu, Xin; Chen, Bingzhang; Huang, Bangqin

2018-03-01

A basic albeit elusive goal of ocean science is to predict the structure of biological communities from the multitude of environmental conditions they experience. Estimates of the realized niche-based traits (realized traits) of phytoplankton species or functional groups in temperate seas have shown that response traits can help reveal the mechanisms responsible for structuring phytoplankton communities, but such approaches have not been tested in tropical and subtropical marginal seas. Here, we used decadal-scale studies of pigment-based phytoplankton groups and environmental conditions in the South China Sea to test whether realized traits could explain the biogeographic patterns of phytoplankton variability. We estimated the mean and breadth of the phytoplankton realized niches based on responses of the group-specific phytoplankton composition to key environmental factors, and we showed that variations of major phytoplankton groups in this system can be explained by different adaptive trade-offs to constraints imposed by temperature, irradiance, and nutrient concentrations. Differences in the patterns of trade-offs clearly separated the dominant groups from one another and generated four sets of realized traits that mirrored the observed biogeographic distribution patterns. The phytoplankton realized niches and their associated traits that we characterized in the present study could help to predict responses of phytoplankton to changes in environmental conditions in the South China Sea and could be incorporated into global biogeochemical models to anticipate shifts in community structure under future climate scenarios.

Plant community responses to simultaneous changes in temperature, nitrogen availability, and invasion.

PubMed

Gornish, Elise S; Miller, Thomas E

2015-01-01

Increasing rates of change in climate have been observed across the planet and have contributed to the ongoing range shifts observed for many species. Although ecologists are now using a variety of approaches to study how much and through what mechanisms increasing temperature and nutrient pollution may influence the invasions inherent in range shifts, accurate predictions are still lacking. In this study, we conducted a factorial experiment, simultaneously manipulating warming, nitrogen addition and introduction of Pityopsis aspera, to determine how range-shifting species affect a plant community. We quantified the resident community using ordination scores, then used structural equation modeling to examine hypotheses related to how plants respond to a network of experimental treatments and environmental variables. Variation in soil pH explained plant community response to nitrogen addition in the absence of invasion. However, in the presence of invasion, the direct effect of nitrogen on the community was negligible and soil moisture was important for explaining nitrogen effects. We did not find effects of warming on the native plant community in the absence of invasion. In the presence of invasion, however, warming had negative effects on functional richness directly and invasion and herbivory explained the overall positive effect of warming on the plant community. This work highlights the variation in the biotic and abiotic factors responsible for explaining independent and collective climate change effects over a short time scale. Future work should consider the complex and non-additive relationships among factors of climate change and invasion in order to capture more ecologically relevant features of our changing environment.

The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on boreal winter rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richard, Sandra; Walsh, Kevin J. E.

2017-09-01

Multi-scale interactions between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Boreal Winter Monsoon contribute to rainfall variations over Malaysia. Understanding the physical mechanisms that control these spatial variations in local rainfall is crucial for improving weather and climate prediction and related risk management. Analysis using station observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) reanalysis reveals a significant decrease in rainfall during El Niño (EL) and corresponding increase during La Niña particularly north of 2°N over Peninsular Malaysia (PM). It is noted that the southern tip of PM shows a small increase in rainfall during El Niño although not significant. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of rainfall and winds indicates that there are no significant changes in morning and evening rainfall over PM that could explain the north-south disparity. Thus, we suggest that the key factor which might explain the north-south rainfall disparity is the moisture flux convergence (MFC). During the December to January (DJF) period of EL years, except for the southern tip of PM, significant negative MFC causes drying as well as suppression of uplift over most areas. In addition, lower specific humidity combined with moisture flux divergence results in less moisture over PM. Thus, over the areas north of 2°N, less rainfall (less heavy rain days) with smaller diurnal rainfall amplitude explains the negative rainfall anomaly observed during DJF of EL. The same MFC argument might explain the dipolar pattern over other areas such as Borneo if further analysis is performed.

War, space, and the evolution of Old World complex societies.

PubMed

Turchin, Peter; Currie, Thomas E; Turner, Edward A L; Gavrilets, Sergey

2013-10-08

How did human societies evolve from small groups, integrated by face-to-face cooperation, to huge anonymous societies of today, typically organized as states? Why is there so much variation in the ability of different human populations to construct viable states? Existing theories are usually formulated as verbal models and, as a result, do not yield sharply defined, quantitative predictions that could be unambiguously tested with data. Here we develop a cultural evolutionary model that predicts where and when the largest-scale complex societies arose in human history. The central premise of the model, which we test, is that costly institutions that enabled large human groups to function without splitting up evolved as a result of intense competition between societies-primarily warfare. Warfare intensity, in turn, depended on the spread of historically attested military technologies (e.g., chariots and cavalry) and on geographic factors (e.g., rugged landscape). The model was simulated within a realistic landscape of the Afroeurasian landmass and its predictions were tested against a large dataset documenting the spatiotemporal distribution of historical large-scale societies in Afroeurasia between 1,500 BCE and 1,500 CE. The model-predicted pattern of spread of large-scale societies was very similar to the observed one. Overall, the model explained 65% of variance in the data. An alternative model, omitting the effect of diffusing military technologies, explained only 16% of variance. Our results support theories that emphasize the role of institutions in state-building and suggest a possible explanation why a long history of statehood is positively correlated with political stability, institutional quality, and income per capita.

War, space, and the evolution of Old World complex societies

PubMed Central

Turchin, Peter; Currie, Thomas E.; Turner, Edward A. L.; Gavrilets, Sergey

2013-01-01

How did human societies evolve from small groups, integrated by face-to-face cooperation, to huge anonymous societies of today, typically organized as states? Why is there so much variation in the ability of different human populations to construct viable states? Existing theories are usually formulated as verbal models and, as a result, do not yield sharply defined, quantitative predictions that could be unambiguously tested with data. Here we develop a cultural evolutionary model that predicts where and when the largest-scale complex societies arose in human history. The central premise of the model, which we test, is that costly institutions that enabled large human groups to function without splitting up evolved as a result of intense competition between societies—primarily warfare. Warfare intensity, in turn, depended on the spread of historically attested military technologies (e.g., chariots and cavalry) and on geographic factors (e.g., rugged landscape). The model was simulated within a realistic landscape of the Afroeurasian landmass and its predictions were tested against a large dataset documenting the spatiotemporal distribution of historical large-scale societies in Afroeurasia between 1,500 BCE and 1,500 CE. The model-predicted pattern of spread of large-scale societies was very similar to the observed one. Overall, the model explained 65% of variance in the data. An alternative model, omitting the effect of diffusing military technologies, explained only 16% of variance. Our results support theories that emphasize the role of institutions in state-building and suggest a possible explanation why a long history of statehood is positively correlated with political stability, institutional quality, and income per capita. PMID:24062433