Towards a National Space Weather Predictive Capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, N. J.; Ryschkewitsch, M. G.; Merkin, V. G.; Stephens, G. K.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Barnes, R. J.; Anderson, B. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Kelly, M. A.; Berger, T. E.; Bonadonna, L. C. M. F.; Hesse, M.; Sharma, S.

2015-12-01

National needs in the area of space weather informational and predictive tools are growing rapidly. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socio-economic losses and impacts on our security. Future space exploration and most modern human endeavors will require major advances in physical understanding and improved transition of space research to operations. At present, only a small fraction of the latest research and development results from NASA, NOAA, NSF and DoD investments are being used to improve space weather forecasting and to develop operational tools. The power of modern research and space weather model development needs to be better utilized to enable comprehensive, timely, and accurate operational space weather tools. The mere production of space weather information is not sufficient to address the needs of those who are affected by space weather. A coordinated effort is required to support research-to-applications transition efforts and to develop the tools required those who rely on this information. In this presentation we will review the space weather system developed for the Van Allen Probes mission, together with other datasets, tools and models that have resulted from research by scientists at JHU/APL. We will look at how these, and results from future missions such as Solar Probe Plus, could be applied to support space weather applications in coordination with other community assets and capabilities.

Recent Progress of Solar Weather Forecasting at Naoc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Han; Wang, Huaning; Du, Zhanle; Zhang, Liyun; Huang, Xin; Yan, Yan; Fan, Yuliang; Zhu, Xiaoshuai; Guo, Xiaobo; Dai, Xinghua

The history of solar weather forecasting services at National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC) can be traced back to 1960s. Nowadays, NAOC is the headquarters of the Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China), which is one of the members of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). NAOC is responsible for exchanging data, information and space weather forecasts of RWC-China with other RWCs. The solar weather forecasting services at NAOC cover short-term prediction (within two or three days), medium-term prediction (within several weeks), and long-term prediction (in time scale of solar cycle) of solar activities. Most efforts of the short-term prediction research are concentrated on the solar eruptive phenomena, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar proton events, which are the key driving sources of strong space weather disturbances. Based on the high quality observation data of the latest space-based and ground-based solar telescopes and with the help of artificial intelligence techniques, new numerical models with quantitative analyses and physical consideration are being developed for the predictions of solar eruptive events. The 3-D computer simulation technology is being introduced for the operational solar weather service platform to visualize the monitoring of solar activities, the running of the prediction models, as well as the presenting of the forecasting results. A new generation operational solar weather monitoring and forecasting system is expected to be constructed in the near future at NAOC.

Third Space Weather Summit Held for Industry and Government Agencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intriligator, Devrie S.

2009-12-01

The potential for space weather effects has been increasing significantly in recent years. For instance, in 2008 airlines flew about 8000 transpolar flights, which experience greater exposure to space weather than nontranspolar flights. This is up from 368 transpolar flights in 2000, and the number of such flights is expected to continue to grow. Transpolar flights are just one example of the diverse technologies susceptible to space weather effects identified by the National Research Council's Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (2008). To discuss issues related to the increasing need for reliable space weather information, experts from industry and government agencies met at the third summit of the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group (CSWIG) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), held 30 April 2009 during Space Weather Week (SWW), in Boulder, Colo.

Presenting Critical Space Weather Information to Customers and Stakeholders (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viereck, R. A.; Singer, H. J.; Murtagh, W. J.; Rutledge, B.

2013-12-01

Space weather involves changes in the near-Earth space environment that impact technological systems such as electric power, radio communication, satellite navigation (GPS), and satellite opeartions. As with terrestrial weather, there are several different kinds of space weather and each presents unique challenges to the impacted technologies and industries. But unlike terrestrial weather, many customers are not fully aware of space weather or how it impacts their systems. This issue is further complicated by the fact that the largest space weather events occur very infrequently with years going by without severe storms. Recent reports have estimated very large potential costs to the economy and to society if a geomagnetic storm were to cause major damage to the electric power transmission system. This issue has come to the attention of emergency managers and federal agencies including the office of the president. However, when considering space weather impacts, it is essential to also consider uncertainties in the frequency of events and the predicted impacts. The unique nature of space weather storms, the specialized technologies that are impacted by them, and the disparate groups and agencies that respond to space weather forecasts and alerts create many challenges to the task of communicating space weather information to the public. Many customers that receive forecasts and alerts are highly technical and knowledgeable about the subtleties of the space environment. Others know very little and require ongoing education and explanation about how a space weather storm will affect their systems. In addition, the current knowledge and understanding of the space environment that goes into forecasting storms is quite immature. It has only been within the last five years that physics-based models of the space environment have played important roles in predictions. Thus, the uncertainties in the forecasts are quite large. There is much that we don't know about space weather and this influences our forecasts. In this presentation, I will discuss the unique challenges that space weather forecasters face when explaining what we know and what we don't know about space weather events to customers and policy makers.

Ensemble flare forecasting: using numerical weather prediction techniques to improve space weather operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, S.; Guerra, J. A.

2017-12-01

One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. Early flare forecasting work focused on statistical methods based on historical flaring rates, but more complex machine learning methods have been developed in recent years. A multitude of flare forecasting methods are now available, however it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are substantially better than climatological forecasts. Current operational space weather centres cannot rely on automated methods, and generally use statistical forecasts with a little human intervention. Space weather researchers are increasingly looking towards methods used in terrestrial weather to improve current forecasting techniques. Ensemble forecasting has been used in numerical weather prediction for many years as a way to combine different predictions in order to obtain a more accurate result. It has proved useful in areas such as magnetospheric modelling and coronal mass ejection arrival analysis, however has not yet been implemented in operational flare forecasting. Here we construct ensemble forecasts for major solar flares by linearly combining the full-disk probabilistic forecasts from a group of operational forecasting methods (ASSA, ASAP, MAG4, MOSWOC, NOAA, and Solar Monitor). Forecasts from each method are weighted by a factor that accounts for the method's ability to predict previous events, and several performance metrics (both probabilistic and categorical) are considered. The results provide space weather forecasters with a set of parameters (combination weights, thresholds) that allow them to select the most appropriate values for constructing the 'best' ensemble forecast probability value, according to the performance metric of their choice. In this way different forecasts can be made to fit different end-user needs.

Predicting Material Performance in the Space Environment from Laboratory Test Data, Static Design Environments, and Space Weather Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minow, Josep I.; Edwards, David L.

2008-01-01

Qualifying materials for use in the space environment is typically accomplished with laboratory exposures to simulated UV/EUV, atomic oxygen, and charged particle radiation environments with in-situ or subsequent measurements of material properties of interest to the particular application. Choice of environment exposure levels are derived from static design environments intended to represent either mean or extreme conditions that are anticipated to be encountered during a mission. The real space environment however is quite variable. Predictions of the on orbit performance of a material qualified to laboratory environments can be done using information on 'space weather' variations in the real environment. This presentation will first review the variability of space environments of concern for material degradation and then demonstrate techniques for using test data to predict material performance in a variety of space environments from low Earth orbit to interplanetary space using historical measurements and space weather models.

New Space Weather Systems Under Development and Their Contribution to Space Weather Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W.; Bouwer, D.; Schunk, R.; Garrett, H.; Mertens, C.; Bowman, B.

2008-12-01

There have been notable successes during the past decade in the development of operational space environment systems. Examples include the Magnetospheric Specification Model (MSM) of the Earth's magnetosphere, 2000; SOLAR2000 (S2K) solar spectral irradiances, 2001; High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) neutral atmosphere densities, 2004; Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) ionosphere specification, 2006; Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind parameters, 2007; Communication Alert and Prediction System (CAPS) ionosphere, high frequency radio, and scintillation S4 index prediction, 2008; and GEO Alert and Prediction System (GAPS) geosynchronous environment satellite charging specification and forecast, 2008. Operational systems that are in active operational implementation include the Jacchia-Bowman 2006/2008 (JB2006/2008) neutral atmosphere, 2009, and the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) aviation radiation model using the Radiation Alert and Prediction System (RAPS), 2010. U.S. national agency and commercial assets will soon reach a state where specification and prediction will become ubiquitous and where coordinated management of the space environment and space weather will become a necessity. We describe the status of the CAPS, GAPS, RAPS, and JB2008 operational development. We additionally discuss the conditions that are laying the groundwork for space weather management and estimate the unfilled needs as we move beyond specification and prediction efforts.

Model Analyses and Guidance

Science.gov Websites

Fire Weather Sun/Moon Long Range Forecasts Climate Prediction Past Weather Past Weather Heating/Cooling Space Weather Sun (Ultraviolet Radiation) Safety Campaigns Wind Drought Winter Weather Information

Space Weather Impacts to Conjunction Assessment: A NASA Robotic Orbital Safety Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghrist, Richard; Ghrist, Richard; DeHart, Russel; Newman, Lauri

2013-01-01

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) recognizes the risk of on-orbit collisions from other satellites and debris objects and has instituted a process to identify and react to close approaches. The charter of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) task is to protect NASA robotic (unmanned) assets from threats posed by other space objects. Monitoring for potential collisions requires formulating close-approach predictions a week or more in the future to determine analyze, and respond to orbital conjunction events of interest. These predictions require propagation of the latest state vector and covariance assuming a predicted atmospheric density and ballistic coefficient. Any differences between the predicted drag used for propagation and the actual drag experienced by the space objects can potentially affect the conjunction event. Therefore, the space environment itself, in particular how space weather impacts atmospheric drag, is an essential element to understand in order effectively to assess the risk of conjunction events. The focus of this research is to develop a better understanding of the impact of space weather on conjunction assessment activities: both accurately determining the current risk and assessing how that risk may change under dynamic space weather conditions. We are engaged in a data-- ]mining exercise to corroborate whether or not observed changes in a conjunction event's dynamics appear consistent with space weather changes and are interested in developing a framework to respond appropriately to uncertainty in predicted space weather. In particular, we use historical conjunction event data products to search for dynamical effects on satellite orbits from changing atmospheric drag. Increased drag is expected to lower the satellite specific energy and will result in the satellite's being 'later' than expected, which can affect satellite conjunctions in a number of ways depending on the two satellites' orbits and the geometry of the conjunction. These satellite time offsets can form the basis of a new technique under development to determine whether space weather perturbations, such as coronal mass ejections, are likely to increase, decrease, or have a neutral effect on the collision risk due to a particular close approach.

Physics-based Space Weather Forecasting in the Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP) in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusano, K.

2016-12-01

Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP) is a Japanese nation-wide research collaboration, which was recently launched. PSTEP aims to develop a synergistic interaction between predictive and scientific studies of the solar-terrestrial environment and to establish the basis for next-generation space weather forecasting using the state-of-the-art observation systems and the physics-based models. For this project, we coordinate the four research groups, which develop (1) the integration of space weather forecast system, (2) the physics-based solar storm prediction, (3) the predictive models of magnetosphere and ionosphere dynamics, and (4) the model of solar cycle activity and its impact on climate, respectively. In this project, we will build the coordinated physics-based model to answer the fundamental questions concerning the onset of solar eruptions and the mechanism for radiation belt dynamics in the Earth's magnetosphere. In this paper, we will show the strategy of PSTEP, and discuss about the role and prospect of the physics-based space weather forecasting system being developed by PSTEP.

Development of a Wake Vortex Spacing System for Airport Capacity Enhancement and Delay Reduction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinton, David A.; OConnor, Cornelius J.

2000-01-01

The Terminal Area Productivity project has developed the technologies required (weather measurement, wake prediction, and wake measurement) to determine the aircraft spacing needed to prevent wake vortex encounters in various weather conditions. The system performs weather measurements, predicts bounds on wake vortex behavior in those conditions, derives safe wake spacing criteria, and validates the wake predictions with wake vortex measurements. System performance to date indicates that the potential runway arrival rate increase with Aircraft VOrtex Spacing System (AVOSS), considering common path effects and ATC delivery variance, is 5% to 12% depending on the ratio of large and heavy aircraft. The concept demonstration system, using early generation algorithms and minimal optimization, is performing the wake predictions with adequate robustness such that only 4 hard exceedances have been observed in 1235 wake validation cases. This performance demonstrates the feasibility of predicting wake behavior bounds with multiple uncertainties present, including the unknown aircraft weight and speed, weather persistence between the wake prediction and the observations, and the location of the weather sensors several kilometers from the approach location. A concept for the use of the AVOSS system for parallel runway operations has been suggested, and an initial study at the JFK International Airport suggests that a simplified AVOSS system can be successfully operated using only a single lidar as both the weather sensor and the wake validation instrument. Such a selfcontained AVOSS would be suitable for wake separation close to the airport, as is required for parallel approach concepts such as SOIA.

Space Weather Forecasting and Supporting Research in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pevtsov, A. A.

2017-12-01

In the United State, scientific research in space weather is funded by several Government Agencies including the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA). For civilian and commercial purposes, space weather forecast is done by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Observational data for modeling come from the network of groundbased observatories funded via various sources, as well as from the instruments on spacecraft. Numerical models used in forecast are developed in framework of individual research projects. The article provides a brief review of current state of space weather-related research and forecasting in the USA.

A survey of of uses and value of space weather information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrijver, C. J.; Rabanal, J.

2013-12-01

We analyze some 2,800 responses to a survey among subscribers of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center email services. Interest in, anticipated impacts from, and responses to solar flares, energetic particle events, and geomagnetic storms are quite uniform across societal sectors. Approximately 40% of the respondents expect serious to very serious impacts from space weather events if no action were taken to mitigate or in the absence of adequate space weather information. The impacts of space weather are deemed to be substantially reduced because of the availability of, and the response to, space-weather forecasts and alerts. Space weather information is primarily used as aid to understand anomalies, to implement mitigating strategies designed to avoid impacts on operations, and to prepare for potential contingencies related directly or indirectly to space weather. Current and near-future space-weather conditions are generally highly valued, considered useful, and generally, though not fully, adequate to avoid or mitigate societal impacts (related most frequently to human safety and reliability of operations). We conclude that even among those receiving space weather information, there is considerable uncertainty about how to act on the information provided.

Community Coordinated Modeling Center: Paving the Way for Progress in Space Science Research to Operational Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, M. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Mays, M. L.; Mullinix, R.; MacNeice, P. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Rastaetter, L.; Shim, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; Zheng, Y.; Wiegand, C.

2013-12-01

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) was established at the dawn of the millennium as an essential element on the National Space Weather Program. One of the CCMC goals was to pave the way for progress in space science research to operational space weather forecasting. Over the years the CCMC acquired the unique experience in preparing complex models and model chains for operational environment, in developing and maintaining powerful web-based tools and systems ready to be used by space weather service providers and decision makers as well as in space weather prediction capabilities assessments. The presentation will showcase latest innovative solutions for space weather research, analysis, forecasting and validation and review on-going community-wide initiatives enabled by CCMC applications.

Using Flow Charts to Visualize the Decision-Making Process in Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aung, M. T. Y.; Myat, T.; Zheng, Y.; Mays, M. L.; Ngwira, C.; Damas, M. C.

2016-12-01

Our society today relies heavily on technological systems such as satellites, navigation systems, power grids and aviation. These systems are very sensitive to space weather disturbances. When Earth-directed space weather driven by the Sun arrives at the Earth, it causes changes to the Earth's radiation environment and the magnetosphere. Strong disturbances in the magnetosphere of the Earth are responsible for geomagnetic storms that can last from hours to days depending on strength of storms. Geomagnetic storms can severely impact critical infrastructure on Earth, such as the electric power grid, and Solar Energetic Particles that can endanger life in outer space. How can we lessen these adverse effects? They can be lessened through the early warning signals sent by space weather forecasters before CME or high-speed stream arrives. A space weather forecaster's duty is to send predicted notifications to high-tech industries and NASA missions so that they could take extra measures for protection. NASA space weather forecasters make prediction decisions by following certain steps and processes from the time an event occurs at the sun all the way to the impact locations. However, there has never been a tool that helps these forecasters visualize the decision process until now. A flow chart is created to help forecasters visualize the decision process. This flow chart provides basic knowledge of space weather and can be used to train future space weather forecasters. It also helps to cut down the training period and increase consistency in forecasting. The flow chart is also a great reference for people who are already familiar with space weather.

The science of space weather.

PubMed

Eastwood, Jonathan P

2008-12-13

The basic physics underpinning space weather is reviewed, beginning with a brief overview of the main causes of variability in the near-Earth space environment. Although many plasma phenomena contribute to space weather, one of the most important is magnetic reconnection, and recent cutting edge research in this field is reviewed. We then place this research in context by discussing a number of specific types of space weather in more detail. As society inexorably increases its dependence on space, the necessity of predicting and mitigating space weather will become ever more acute. This requires a deep understanding of the complexities inherent in the plasmas that fill space and has prompted the development of a new generation of scientific space missions at the international level.

Operational Numerical Weather Prediction at the Met Office and potential ways forward for operational space weather prediction systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, David

NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar-wind, magnetosphere and ionosphere. The three simulations are directly or indirectly connected each other based on real-time observa-tion data to reproduce a virtual geo-space region on the super-computer. Informatics is a new methodology to make precise forecast of space weather. Based on new information and communication technologies (ICT), it provides more information in both quality and quantity. At NICT, we have been developing a cloud-computing system named "space weather cloud" based on a high-speed network system (JGN2+). Huge-scale distributed storage (1PB), clus-ter computers, visualization systems and other resources are expected to derive new findings and services of space weather forecasting. The final goal of NICT space weather service is to predict near-future space weather conditions and disturbances which will be causes of satellite malfunctions, tele-communication problems, and error of GPS navigations. In the present talk, we introduce our recent activities on the space weather services and discuss how we are going to develop the services from the view points of space science and practical uses.

STEREO Space Weather and the Space Weather Beacon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biesecker, D. A.; Webb, D F.; SaintCyr, O. C.

2007-01-01

The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) is first and foremost a solar and interplanetary research mission, with one of the natural applications being in the area of space weather. The obvious potential for space weather applications is so great that NOAA has worked to incorporate the real-time data into their forecast center as much as possible. A subset of the STEREO data will be continuously downlinked in a real-time broadcast mode, called the Space Weather Beacon. Within the research community there has been considerable interest in conducting space weather related research with STEREO. Some of this research is geared towards making an immediate impact while other work is still very much in the research domain. There are many areas where STEREO might contribute and we cannot predict where all the successes will come. Here we discuss how STEREO will contribute to space weather and many of the specific research projects proposed to address STEREO space weather issues. We also discuss some specific uses of the STEREO data in the NOAA Space Environment Center.

Innovative Near Real-Time Data Dissemination Tools Developed by the Space Weather Research Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullinix, R.; Maddox, M. M.; Berrios, D.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Zheng, Y.

2012-12-01

Space weather affects virtually all of NASA's endeavors, from robotic missions to human exploration. Knowledge and prediction of space weather conditions are therefore essential to NASA operations. The diverse nature of currently available space environment measurements and modeling products compels the need for a single access point to such information. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System provides this single point access along with the capability to collect and catalog a vast range of sources including both observational and model data. NASA Goddard Space Weather Research Center heavily utilizes the iSWA System daily for research, space weather model validation, and forecasting for NASA missions. iSWA provides the capabilities to view and analyze near real-time space weather data from any where in the world. This presentation will describe the technology behind the iSWA system and describe how to use the system for space weather research, forecasting, training, education, and sharing.

Using Space Weather for Enhanced, Extreme Terrestrial Weather Predictions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, M. H.; Lee, T. A., III

2017-12-01

Considering the complexities of the Sun-Earth system, the impacts of space weather to weather here on Earth are not fully understood. This study attempts to analyze this interrelationship by providing a theoretical framework for studying the varied modalities of solar inclination and explores the extent to which they contribute, both in formation and intensity, to extreme terrestrial weather. Using basic topologic and ontology engineering concepts (TOEC), the transdisciplinary syntaxes of space physics, geophysics, and meteorology are analyzed as a seamless interrelated system. This paper reports this investigation's initial findings and examines the validity of the question "Does space weather contribute to extreme weather on Earth, and if so, to what degree?"

The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davila, Joseph M.

2010-01-01

The International Heliophysical Year (IHY) provided a successful model for the deployment of arrays of small scientific instruments in new and scientifically interesting geographic locations, and outreach. The new International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is designed to build on this momentum to promote the observation, understanding, and prediction space weather phenomena, and to communicate the scientific results to the public.

A coronagraph for operational space weather predication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Middleton, Kevin F.

2017-09-01

Accurate prediction of the arrival of solar wind phenomena, in particular coronal mass ejections (CMEs), at Earth, and possibly elsewhere in the heliosphere, is becoming increasingly important given our ever-increasing reliance on technology. The potentially severe impact on human technological systems of such phenomena is termed space weather. A coronagraph is arguably the instrument that provides the earliest definitive evidence of CME eruption; from a vantage point on or near the Sun-Earth line, a coronagraph can provide near-definitive identification of an Earth-bound CME. Currently, prediction of CME arrival is critically dependent on ageing science coronagraphs whose design and operation were not optimized for space weather services. We describe the early stages of the conceptual design of SCOPE (the Solar Coronagraph for OPErations), optimized to support operational space weather services.

An abridged history of federal involvement in space weather forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, Becaja; McCarron, Eoin; Jonas, Seth

2017-10-01

Public awareness of space weather and its adverse effects on critical infrastructure systems, services, and technologies (e.g., the electric grid, telecommunications, and satellites) has grown through recent media coverage and scientific research. However, federal interest and involvement in space weather dates back to the decades between World War I and World War II when the National Bureau of Standards led efforts to observe, forecast, and provide warnings of space weather events that could interfere with high-frequency radio transmissions. The efforts to observe and predict space weather continued through the 1960s during the rise of the Cold War and into the present with U.S. government efforts to prepare the nation for space weather events. This paper provides a brief overview of the history of federal involvement in space weather forecasting from World War II, through the Apollo Program, and into the present.

Space Weather Needs of an Evolving Customer Base (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutledge, B.; Viereck, R. A.; Onsager, T. G.

2013-12-01

Great progress has been made in raising the global awareness of space weather and the associated impacts on Earth and our technological systems. However, significant gaps still exist in providing comprehensive and easily understood space weather information, products, and services to the diverse and growing customer base. As technologies, such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), have become more ingrained in applications and fields of work that previously did not rely on systems sensitive to space weather, the customer base has grown substantially. Furthermore, the causes and effects of space weather can be difficult to interpret without a detailed understanding of the scientific underpinnings. In response to this change, space weather service providers must address this evolution by both improving services and by representing space weather information and impacts in ways that are meaningful to each facet of this diverse customer base. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) must work with users, spanning precision agriculture, emergency management, power grid operators and beyond, to both identify unmet space weather service requirements and to ensure information and decision support services are provided in meaningful and more easily understood forms.

A survey of customers of space weather information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrijver, C. J.; Rabanal, J. P.

2013-09-01

We present an analysis of the users of space weather information based on 2783 responses to an online survey among subscribers of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center e-mail services. The survey requested information focused on the three NOAA space weather scales: geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, and radio blackouts. Space weather information is most commonly obtained for reasons of human safety and continuity or reliability of operations. The information is primarily used for situational awareness, as aid to understand anomalies, to avoid impacts on current and near-future operations by implementing mitigating strategies, and to prepare for potential near-future impacts that might occur in conjunction with contingencies that include electric power outages or GPS perturbations. Interest in, anticipated impacts from, and responses to the three main categories of space weather are quite uniform across societal sectors. Approximately 40% of the respondents expect serious to very serious impacts from space weather events if no action were taken to mitigate or in the absence of adequate space weather information. The impacts of space weather are deemed to be substantially reduced because of the availability of, and their response to, space weather forecasts and alerts. Current and near-future space weather conditions are generally highly valued, considered useful, and generally, though not fully, adequate to avoid or mitigate societal impacts. We conclude that even among those receiving space weather information, there is considerable uncertainty about the possible impacts of space weather and thus about how to act on the space weather information that is provided.

Models and applications for space weather forecasting and analysis at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, Maria

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) was established at the dawn of the new millennium as a long-term flexible solution to the problem of transition of progress in space environment modeling to operational space weather forecasting. CCMC hosts an expanding collection of state-of-the-art space weather models developed by the international space science community. Over the years the CCMC acquired the unique experience in preparing complex models and model chains for operational environment and developing and maintaining custom displays and powerful web-based systems and tools ready to be used by researchers, space weather service providers and decision makers. In support of space weather needs of NASA users CCMC is developing highly-tailored applications and services that target specific orbits or locations in space and partnering with NASA mission specialists on linking CCMC space environment modeling with impacts on biological and technological systems in space. Confidence assessment of model predictions is an essential element of space environment modeling. CCMC facilitates interaction between model owners and users in defining physical parameters and metrics formats relevant to specific applications and leads community efforts to quantify models ability to simulate and predict space environment events. Interactive on-line model validation systems developed at CCMC make validation a seamless part of model development circle. The talk will showcase innovative solutions for space weather research, validation, anomaly analysis and forecasting and review on-going community-wide model validation initiatives enabled by CCMC applications.

Nowcasting Ground Magnetic Perturbations with the Space Weather Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, D. T.; Toth, G.; Singer, H. J.; Millward, G. H.; Gombosi, T. I.

2015-12-01

Predicting ground-based magnetic perturbations is a critical step towards specifying and predicting geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in high voltage transmission lines. Currently, the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), a flexible modeling framework for simulating the multi-scale space environment, is being transitioned from research to operational use (R2O) by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. Upon completion of this transition, the SWMF will provide localized B/t predictions using real-time solar wind observations from L1 and the F10.7 proxy for EUV as model input. This presentation describes the operational SWMF setup and summarizes the changes made to the code to enable R2O progress. The framework's algorithm for calculating ground-based magnetometer observations will be reviewed. Metrics from data-model comparisons will be reviewed to illustrate predictive capabilities. Early data products, such as regional-K index and grids of virtual magnetometer stations, will be presented. Finally, early successes will be shared, including the code's ability to reproduce the recent March 2015 St. Patrick's Day Storm.

Space Environment Modelling with the Use of Artificial Intelligence Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundstedt, H.; Wintoft, P.; Wu, J.-G.; Gleisner, H.; Dovheden, V.

1996-12-01

Space based technological systems are affected by the space weather in many ways. Several severe failures of satellites have been reported at times of space storms. Our society also increasingly depends on satellites for communication, navigation, exploration, and research. Predictions of the conditions in the satellite environment have therefore become very important. We will here present predictions made with the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as artificial neural networks (ANN) and hybrids of AT methods. We are developing a space weather model based on intelligence hybrid systems (IHS). The model consists of different forecast modules, each module predicts the space weather on a specific time-scale. The time-scales range from minutes to months with the fundamental time-scale of 1-5 minutes, 1-3 hours, 1-3 days, and 27 days. Solar and solar wind data are used as input data. From solar magnetic field measurements, either made on the ground at Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) at Stanford, or made from space by the satellite SOHO, solar wind parameters can be predicted and modelled with ANN and MHD models. Magnetograms from WSO are available on a daily basis. However, from SOHO magnetograms will be available every 90 minutes. SOHO magnetograms as input to ANNs will therefore make it possible to even predict solar transient events. Geomagnetic storm activity can today be predicted with very high accuracy by means of ANN methods using solar wind input data. However, at present real-time solar wind data are only available during part of the day from the satellite WIND. With the launch of ACE in 1997, solar wind data will on the other hand be available during 24 hours per day. The conditions of the satellite environment are not only disturbed at times of geomagnetic storms but also at times of intense solar radiation and highly energetic particles. These events are associated with increased solar activity. Predictions of these events are therefore also handled with the modules in the Lund Space Weather Model. Interesting Links: Lund Space Weather and AI Center

ScienceCast 121: The Effects of Space Weather on Aviation

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-10-25

Ordinary air travelers can be exposed to significant doses of radiation during solar storms. A new computer model developed by NASA aims to help protect the public by predicting space weather hazards to aviation.

Space Weather affects on Air Transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, J. B. L.; Bentley, R. D.; Dyer, C.; Shaw, A.

In Europe, legislation requires the airline industry to monitor the occupational exposure of aircrew to cosmic radiation. However, there are other significant impacts of space weather phenomena on the technological systems used for day-to-day operations which need to be considered by the airlines. These were highlighted by the disruption caused to the industry by the period of significant solar activity in late October and early November 2003. Next generation aircraft will utilize increasingly complex avionics as well as expanding the performance envelopes. These and future generation platforms will require the development of a new air-space management infrastructure with improved position accuracy (for route navigation and landing in bad weather) and reduced separation minima in order to cope with the expected growth in air travel. Similarly, greater reliance will be placed upon satellites for command, control, communication and information (C3I) of the operation. However, to maximize effectiveness of this globally interoperable C3I and ensure seamless fusion of all components for a safe operation will require a greater understanding of the space weather affects, their risks with increasing technology, and the inclusion of space weather information into the operation. This paper will review space weather effects on air transport and the increasing risks for future operations cause by them. We will examine how well the effects can be predicted, some of the tools that can be used and the practicalities of using such predictions in an operational scenario. Initial results from the SOARS ESA Space Weather Pilot Project will also be discussed,

An overview on the Space Weather in Latin America: from Space Research to Space Weather and its Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Nardin, C. M.; Gonzalez-Esparza, A.; Dasso, S.

2015-12-01

We present an overview on the Space Weather in Latin America, highlighting the main findings from our review the recent advances in the space science investigations in Latin America focusing in the solar-terrestrial interactions, modernly named space weather, which leaded to the creation of forecast centers. Despite recognizing advances in the space research over the whole Latin America, this review is restricted to the evolution observed in three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico) only, due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational center for monitoring the space weather. The work starts with briefly mentioning the first groups that started the space science in Latin America. The current status and research interest of such groups are then described together with the most referenced works and the challenges for the next decade to solve space weather puzzles. A small inventory of the networks and collaborations being built is also described. Finally, the decision process for spinning off the space weather prediction centers from the space science groups is reported with an interpretation of the reason/opportunities that lead to it. Lastly, the constraints for the progress in the space weather monitoring, research, and forecast are listed with recommendations to overcome them.

Validation of the Kp Geomagnetic Index Forecast at CCMC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frechette, B. P.; Mays, M. L.

2017-12-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) sub-team provides space weather services to NASA robotic mission operators and science campaigns and prototypes new models, forecasting techniques, and procedures. The Kp index is a measure of geomagnetic disturbances for space weather in the magnetosphere such as geomagnetic storms and substorms. In this study, we performed validation on the Newell et al. (2007) Kp prediction equation from December 2010 to July 2017. The purpose of this research is to understand the Kp forecast performance because it's critical for NASA missions to have confidence in the space weather forecast. This research was done by computing the Kp error for each forecast (average, minimum, maximum) and each synoptic period. Then to quantify forecast performance we computed the mean error, mean absolute error, root mean square error, multiplicative bias and correlation coefficient. A contingency table was made for each forecast and skill scores were computed. The results are compared to the perfect score and reference forecast skill score. In conclusion, the skill score and error results show that the minimum of the predicted Kp over each synoptic period from the Newell et al. (2007) Kp prediction equation performed better than the maximum or average of the prediction. However, persistence (reference forecast) outperformed all of the Kp forecasts (minimum, maximum, and average). Overall, the Newell Kp prediction still predicts within a range of 1, even though persistence beats it.

Highlights of Space Weather Services/Capabilities at NASA/GSFC Space Weather Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, Mei-Ching; Zheng, Yihua; Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, Maria; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Mays, Leila; Chulaki, Anna; Lee, Hyesook

2012-01-01

The importance of space weather has been recognized world-wide. Our society depends increasingly on technological infrastructure, including the power grid as well as satellites used for communication and navigation. Such technologies, however, are vulnerable to space weather effects caused by the Sun's variability. NASA GSFC's Space Weather Center (SWC) (http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov//674/swx services/swx services.html) has developed space weather products/capabilities/services that not only respond to NASA's needs but also address broader interests by leveraging the latest scientific research results and state-of-the-art models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC: http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov). By combining forefront space weather science and models, employing an innovative and configurable dissemination system (iSWA.gsfc.nasa.gov), taking advantage of scientific expertise both in-house and from the broader community as well as fostering and actively participating in multilateral collaborations both nationally and internationally, NASA/GSFC space weather Center, as a sibling organization to CCMC, is poised to address NASA's space weather needs (and needs of various partners) and to help enhancing space weather forecasting capabilities collaboratively. With a large number of state-of-the-art physics-based models running in real-time covering the whole space weather domain, it offers predictive capabilities and a comprehensive view of space weather events throughout the solar system. In this paper, we will provide some highlights of our service products/capabilities. In particular, we will take the 23 January and the 27 January space weather events as examples to illustrate how we can use the iSWA system to track them in the interplanetary space and forecast their impacts.

Short-term Forecasting Ground Magnetic Perturbations with the Space Weather Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, Daniel; Toth, Gabor; Gombosi, Tamas; Singer, Howard; Millward, George

2016-04-01

Predicting ground-based magnetic perturbations is a critical step towards specifying and predicting geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in high voltage transmission lines. Currently, the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), a flexible modeling framework for simulating the multi-scale space environment, is being transitioned from research to operational use (R2O) by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. Upon completion of this transition, the SWMF will provide localized dB/dt predictions using real-time solar wind observations from L1 and the F10.7 proxy for EUV as model input. This presentation describes the operational SWMF setup and summarizes the changes made to the code to enable R2O progress. The framework's algorithm for calculating ground-based magnetometer observations will be reviewed. Metrics from data-model comparisons will be reviewed to illustrate predictive capabilities. Early data products, such as regional-K index and grids of virtual magnetometer stations, will be presented. Finally, early successes will be shared, including the code's ability to reproduce the recent March 2015 St. Patrick's Day Storm.

Space weather in the EU's FP7 Space Theme. Preface to the special issue on "EU-FP7 funded space weather projects"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiarini, Paola

2013-11-01

Technological infrastructures in space and on ground provide services on which modern society and economies rely. Space weather related research is funded under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (FP7) of the European Union in response to the need of protecting such critical infrastructures from the damage which could be caused by extreme space weather events. The calls for proposals published under the topic "Security of space assets from space weather events" of the FP7 Space Theme aimed to improve forecasts and predictions of disruptive space weather events as well as identify best practices to limit the impacts on space- and ground-based infrastructures and their data provision. Space weather related work was also funded under the topic "Exploitation of space science and exploration data", which aims to add value to space missions and Earth-based observations by contributing to the effective scientific exploitation of collected data. Since 2007 a total of 20 collaborative projects have been funded, covering a variety of physical phenomena associated with space weather, from ionospheric disturbances and scintillation, to geomagnetically induced currents at Earth's surface, to coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particles. This article provides an overview of the funded projects, touching upon some results and referring to specific websites for a more exhaustive description of the projects' outcomes.

Space weather forecasting with a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Eccles, V.; Gardner, L. C.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.; Pi, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Butala, M.; Wilson, B. D.; Komjathy, A.; Wang, C.; Rosen, G.

2016-07-01

The goal of the Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) program is to improve space weather specification and forecasting with ensemble modeling. Space weather can have detrimental effects on a variety of civilian and military systems and operations, and many of the applications pertain to the ionosphere and upper atmosphere. Space weather can affect over-the-horizon radars, HF communications, surveying and navigation systems, surveillance, spacecraft charging, power grids, pipelines, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA's) Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). Because of its importance, numerous space weather forecasting approaches are being pursued, including those involving empirical, physics-based, and data assimilation models. Clearly, if there are sufficient data, the data assimilation modeling approach is expected to be the most reliable, but different data assimilation models can produce different results. Therefore, like the meteorology community, we created a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) for the Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics (ITE) system that is based on different data assimilation models. The MEPS ensemble is composed of seven physics-based data assimilation models for the ionosphere, ionosphere-plasmasphere, thermosphere, high-latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics, and middle to low latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics. Hence, multiple data assimilation models can be used to describe each region. A selected storm event that was reconstructed with four different data assimilation models covering the middle and low latitude ionosphere is presented and discussed. In addition, the effect of different data types on the reconstructions is shown.

Towards the Next Generation of Space Environment Prediction Capabilities.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, M. M.

2015-12-01

Since its establishment more than 15 years ago, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) is serving as an assess point to expanding collection of state-of-the-art space environment models and frameworks as well as a hub for collaborative development of next generation space weather forecasting systems. In partnership with model developers and international research and operational communities the CCMC integrates new data streams and models from diverse sources into end-to-end space weather impacts predictive systems, identifies week links in data-model & model-model coupling and leads community efforts to fill those gaps. The presentation will highlight latest developments, progress in CCMC-led community-wide projects on testing, prototyping, and validation of models, forecasting techniques and procedures and outline ideas on accelerating implementation of new capabilities in space weather operations.

Strategy for future space weather observational assets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, Jackie; Bogdanova, Yulia; Harrison, Richard; Bisi, Mario; Hapgood, Mike

2017-04-01

Observations from an ad-hoc suite of mainly aging, scientific, space-borne assets currently underpin space weather forecasting capabilities world-wide. While efforts have begun to replace / supplement these assets - in particular with the recent launch of the DSCOVR spacecraft - it is widely accepted that there is an urgent need to accelerate these endeavours in order to mitigate the risk of losing these critical observations. It is hence opportune to critically review the possible options for the provision of space weather observations, particularly in terms of identifying the optimum vantage point(s) and the instrumentation that will provide the most beneficial measurements to support space weather prediction. Here we present the results of several recent European studies that aim to identify the best solution for space-based space weather monitoring - obviously within realistic financial constraints and bearing in mind the immediacy with which such a mission needs to be realised.

Challenges in Heliophysics and Space Weather: What Instrumentation for the Future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guhathakurta, Madhulika

A hundred years ago, the sun-Earth connection (the field of heliophysics research and space weather impacts) was of interest to only a small number of scientists. Solar activity had little effect on daily life. Today, a single strong solar flare could bring civilization to its knees. Modern society has come to depend on technologies sensitive to solar radiation and geomagnetic storms. Particularly vulnerable are intercontinental power grids, interplanetary robotic and human exploration, satellite operations and communications, and GPS navigation. These technologies are woven into the fabric of daily life, from health care and finance to basic utilities. Both short- and long-term forecasting models are urgently needed to mitigate the effects of solar storms and to anticipate their collective impact on aviation, astronaut safety, terrestrial climate and others. Even during a relatively weak solar maximum, the potential consequences that such events can have on society are too important to ignore. The challenges associated with space weather affect all developed and developing countries. Work on space weather specification, modeling, and forecasting has great societal benefit: It is basic research with a high public purpose. At present, we have a fleet “Heliophysics System Observatory” of dedicated spacecraft titled (e.g. SOHO, STEREO, SDO, ACE), and serendipitous resources contributing data for space weather modeling from both remote observations of the sun and in-situ measurements to provide sparse space weather situational awareness which were mostly built for a 2-3 year lifetime and are wearing out and won’t be around for very long. Missions currently in formulation will significantly enhance the capability of physics-based models that are used to understand and predict the impact of the variable sun. To enhance current models, and make them effective in predicting space weather throughout the solar system, we need a distributed network of spacecraft collecting relevant data that can be assimilated into models. In this talk I will discuss several additional approaches that could be used for the necessary augmentation of the existing HSO capabilities and replacement of aging HSO instruments, enabling interplanetary space weather and climate predictions.

Assimilating Thor: How Airmen Integrate Weather Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

atmosphere and the earth from the air and from space widened the aperture of data so as to overexpose humans to the panoply of information coming...endurance record flights circled the earth without stopping; aircraft climbed through the atmosphere into space. Weather surveillance radar...advances found congruence in the meteorological advance of ensemble weather modeling. Complex, adaptive systems like the atmosphere lend themselves to

Operationalizing the Space Weather Modeling Framework: Challenges and Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, D. T.; Gombosi, T. I.; Toth, G.; Singer, H. J.; Millward, G. H.; Balch, C. C.; Cash, M. D.

2016-12-01

Predicting ground-based magnetic perturbations is a critical step towards specifying and predicting geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in high voltage transmission lines. Currently, the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), a flexible modeling framework for simulating the multi-scale space environment, is being transitioned from research to operational use (R2O) by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. Upon completion of this transition, the SWMF will provide localized time-varying magnetic field (dB/dt) predictions using real-time solar wind observations from L1 and the F10.7 proxy for EUV as model input. This presentation chronicles the challenges encountered during the R2O transition of the SWMF. Because operations relies on frequent calculations of global surface dB/dt, new optimizations were required to keep the model running faster than real time. Additionally, several singular situations arose during the 30-day robustness test that required immediate attention. Solutions and strategies for overcoming these issues will be presented. This includes new failsafe options for code execution, new physics and coupling parameters, and the development of an automated validation suite that allows us to monitor performance with code evolution. Finally, the operations-to-research (O2R) impact on SWMF-related research is presented. The lessons learned from this work are valuable and instructive for the space weather community as further R2O progress is made.

The Scientific Foundations of Forecasting Magnetospheric Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eastwood, J. P.; Nakamura, R.; Turc, L.; Mejnertsen, L.; Hesse, M.

2017-11-01

The magnetosphere is the lens through which solar space weather phenomena are focused and directed towards the Earth. In particular, the non-linear interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's magnetic field leads to the formation of highly inhomogenous electrical currents in the ionosphere which can ultimately result in damage to and problems with the operation of power distribution networks. Since electric power is the fundamental cornerstone of modern life, the interruption of power is the primary pathway by which space weather has impact on human activity and technology. Consequently, in the context of space weather, it is the ability to predict geomagnetic activity that is of key importance. This is usually stated in terms of geomagnetic storms, but we argue that in fact it is the substorm phenomenon which contains the crucial physics, and therefore prediction of substorm occurrence, severity and duration, either within the context of a longer-lasting geomagnetic storm, but potentially also as an isolated event, is of critical importance. Here we review the physics of the magnetosphere in the frame of space weather forecasting, focusing on recent results, current understanding, and an assessment of probable future developments.

Verification of Space Weather Forecasts Issued by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharpe, M. A.; Murray, S. A.

2017-10-01

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre was founded in 2014 and part of its remit is a daily Space Weather Technical Forecast to help the UK build resilience to space weather impacts; guidance includes 4 day geomagnetic storm forecasts (GMSF) and X-ray flare forecasts (XRFF). It is crucial for forecasters, users, modelers, and stakeholders to understand the strengths and weaknesses of these forecasts; therefore, it is important to verify against the most reliable truth data source available. The present study contains verification results for XRFFs using Geo-Orbiting Earth Satellite 15 satellite data and GMSF using planetary K-index (Kp) values from the GFZ Helmholtz Centre. To assess the value of the verification results, it is helpful to compare them against a reference forecast and the frequency of occurrence during a rolling prediction period is used for this purpose. An analysis of the rolling 12 month performance over a 19 month period suggests that both the XRFF and GMSF struggle to provide a better prediction than the reference. However, a relative operating characteristic and reliability analysis of the full 19 month period reveals that although the GMSF and XRFF possess discriminatory skill, events tend to be overforecast.

The Critical Role of the Research Community in Space Weather Planning and Execution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Robert M.; Behnke, Richard A.; Moretto, Therese

2018-03-01

The explosion of interest in space weather in the last 25 years has been due to a confluence of efforts all over the globe, motivated by the recognition that events on the Sun and the consequent conditions in interplanetary space and Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere can have serious impacts on vital technological systems. The fundamental research conducted at universities, government laboratories, and in the private sector has led to tremendous improvements in the ability to forecast space weather events and predict their impacts on human technology and health. The mobilization of the research community that made this progress possible was the result of a series of actions taken by the National Science Foundation (NSF) to build a national program aimed at space weather. The path forward for space weather is to build on those successes through continued involvement of the research community and support for programs aimed at strengthening basic research and education in academia, the private sector, and government laboratories. Investments in space weather are most effective when applied at the intersection of research and applications. Thus, to achieve the goals set forth originally by the National Space Weather Program, the research community must be fully engaged in the planning, implementation, and execution of space weather activities, currently being coordinated by the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation Subcommittee under the National Science and Technology Council.

Planetary Space Weather Services for the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

André, Nicolas; Grande, Manuel

2016-04-01

Under Horizon 2020, the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure (EPN2020-RI) will include an entirely new Virtual Access Service, WP5 VA1 "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) that will extend the concepts of space weather and space situational awareness to other planets in our Solar System and in particular to spacecraft that voyage through it. VA1 will make five entirely new 'toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: a general planetary space weather toolkit, as well as three toolkits dedicated to the following key planetary environments: Mars (in support ExoMars), comets (building on the expected success of the ESA Rosetta mission), and outer planets (in preparation for the ESA JUICE mission to be launched in 2022). This will give the European planetary science community new methods, interfaces, functionalities and/or plugins dedicated to planetary space weather in the tools and models available within the partner institutes. It will also create a novel event-diary toolkit aiming at predicting and detecting planetary events like meteor showers and impacts. A variety of tools (in the form of web applications, standalone software, or numerical models in various degrees of implementation) are available for tracing propagation of planetary and/or solar events through the Solar System and modelling the response of the planetary environment (surfaces, atmospheres, ionospheres, and magnetospheres) to those events. But these tools were not originally designed for planetary event prediction and space weather applications. So WP10 JRA4 "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) will provide the additional research and tailoring required to apply them for these purposes. The overall objectives of this Joint Research Aactivities will be to review, test, improve and adapt methods and tools available within the partner institutes in order to make prototype planetary event and space weather services operational in Europe at the end of the programme. Europlanet 2020 RI has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 654208.

Comparative Studies of Prediction Strategies for Solar X-ray Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muranushi, T.; Hattori, T.; Jin, Q.; Hishinuma, T.; Tominaga, M.; Nakagawa, K.; Fujiwara, Y.; Nakamura, T.; Sakaue, T.; Takahashi, T.; Seki, D.; Namekata, K.; Tei, A.; Ban, M.; Kawamura, A. D.; Hada-Muranushi, Y.; Asai, A.; Nemoto, S.; Shibata, K.

2016-12-01

Crucial virtues for operational space weather forecast are real-timeforecast ability, forecast precision and customizability to userneeds. The recent development of deep-learning makes it veryattractive to space weather, because (1) it learns gradually incomingdata, (2) it exhibits superior accuracy over conventional algorithmsin many fields, and (3) it makes the customization of the forecasteasier because it accepts raw images.However, the best deep-learning applications are only attainable bycareful human designers that understands both the mechanism of deeplearning and the application field. Therefore, we need to foster youngresearchers to enter the field of machine-learning aided forecast. So,we have held a seminar every Monday with undergraduate and graduatestudents from May to August 2016.We will review the current status of space weather science and theautomated real-time space weather forecast engine UFCORIN. Then, weintroduce the deep-learning space weather forecast environments wehave set up using Python and Chainer on students' laptop computers.We have started from simple image classification neural network, thenimplemented space-weather neural network that predicts future X-rayflux of the Sun based on the past X-ray lightcurve and magnetic fieldline-of-sight images.In order to perform each forecast faster, we have focused on simplelightcurve-to-lightcurve forecast, and performed comparative surveysby changing following parameters: The size and topology of the neural network Batchsize Neural network hyperparameters such as learning rates to optimize the preduction accuracy, and time for prediction.We have found how to design compact, fast but accurate neural networkto perform forecast. Our forecasters can perform predictionexperiment for four-year timespan in a few minutes, and achieveslog-scale errors of the order of 1. Our studies is ongoing, and inour talk we will review our progress till December.

Planetary Space Weather Service: Part of the the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grande, Manuel; Andre, Nicolas

2016-07-01

Over the next four years the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure will set up an entirely new European Planetary Space Weather service (PSWS). Europlanet RI is a part of of Horizon 2020 (EPN2020-RI, http://www.europlanet-2020-ri.eu). The Virtual Access Service, WP5 VA1 "Planetary Space Weather Services" will extend the concepts of space weather and space situational awareness to other planets in our Solar System and in particular to spacecraft that voyage through it. VA1 will make five entirely new 'toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: a general planetary space weather toolkit, as well as three toolkits dedicated to the following key planetary environments: Mars (in support ExoMars), comets (building on the expected success of the ESA Rosetta mission), and outer planets (in preparation for the ESA JUICE mission to be launched in 2022). This will give the European planetary science community new methods, interfaces, functionalities and/or plugins dedicated to planetary space weather in the tools and models available within the partner institutes. It will also create a novel event-diary toolkit aiming at predicting and detecting planetary events like meteor showers and impacts. A variety of tools (in the form of web applications, standalone software, or numerical models in various degrees of implementation) are available for tracing propagation of planetary and/or solar events through the Solar System and modelling the response of the planetary environment (surfaces, atmospheres, ionospheres, and magnetospheres) to those events. But these tools were not originally designed for planetary event prediction and space weather applications. So WP10 JRA4 "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) will provide the additional research and tailoring required to apply them for these purposes. The overall objectives of this Joint Research Aactivities will be to review, test, improve and adapt methods and tools available within the partner institutes in order to make prototype planetary event and space weather services operational in Europe at the end of the programme. Europlanet 2020 RI has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 654208.

Towards a Global Hub and a Network for Collaborative Advancing of Space Weather Predictive Capabilities.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, M. M.; Heynderickz, D.; Grande, M.; Opgenoorth, H. J.

2017-12-01

The COSPAR/ILWS roadmap on space weather published in 2015 (Advances in Space Research, 2015: DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2015.03.023) prioritizes steps to be taken to advance understanding of space environment phenomena and to improve space weather forecasting capabilities. General recommendations include development of a comprehensive space environment specification, assessment of the state of the field on a 5-yr basis, standardization of meta-data and product metrics. To facilitate progress towards roadmap goals there is a need for a global hub for collaborative space weather capabilities assessment and development that brings together research, engineering, operational, educational, and end-user communities. The COSPAR Panel on Space Weather is aiming to build upon past progress and to facilitate coordination of established and new international space weather research and development initiatives. Keys to the success include creating flexible, collaborative, inclusive environment and engaging motivated groups and individuals committed to active participation in international multi-disciplinary teams focused on topics addressing emerging needs and challenges in the rapidly growing field of space weather. Near term focus includes comprehensive assessment of the state of the field and establishing an internationally recognized process to quantify and track progress over time, development of a global network of distributed web-based resources and interconnected interactive services required for space weather research, analysis, forecasting and education.

Predicting the magnetospheric plasma of weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dawson, John M.

1986-01-01

The prediction of the plasma environment in time, the plasma weather, is discussed. It is important to be able to predict when large magnetic storms will produce auroras, which will affect the space station operating in low orbit, and what precautions to take both for personnel and sensitive control (computer) equipment onboard. It is also important to start to establish a set of plasma weather records and a record of the ability to predict this weather. A successful forecasting system requires a set of satellite weather stations to provide data from which predictions can be made and a set of plasma weather codes capable of accurately forecasting the status of the Earth's magnetosphere. A numerical magnetohydrodynamic fluid model which is used to model the flow in the magnetosphere, the currents flowing into and out of the auroral regions, the magnetopause, the bow shock location and the magnetotail of the Earth is discussed.

Development of the Rice Convection Model as a Space Weather Tool

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-31

coupled to the ionosphere that is suitable for both scientific studies as well as a prediction tool. We are able to run the model faster than “real...of work by finding ways to fund a more systematic effort in making the RCM a space weather prediction tool for magnetospheric and ionospheric studies...convection electric field, total electron content, TEC, ionospheric convection, plasmasphere 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT

A new technique for observationally derived boundary conditions for space weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagano, Paolo; Mackay, Duncan Hendry; Yeates, Anthony Robinson

2018-04-01

Context. In recent years, space weather research has focused on developing modelling techniques to predict the arrival time and properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the Earth. The aim of this paper is to propose a new modelling technique suitable for the next generation of Space Weather predictive tools that is both efficient and accurate. The aim of the new approach is to provide interplanetary space weather forecasting models with accurate time dependent boundary conditions of erupting magnetic flux ropes in the upper solar corona. Methods: To produce boundary conditions, we couple two different modelling techniques, MHD simulations and a quasi-static non-potential evolution model. Both are applied on a spatial domain that covers the entire solar surface, although they extend over a different radial distance. The non-potential model uses a time series of observed synoptic magnetograms to drive the non-potential quasi-static evolution of the coronal magnetic field. This allows us to follow the formation and loss of equilibrium of magnetic flux ropes. Following this a MHD simulation captures the dynamic evolution of the erupting flux rope, when it is ejected into interplanetary space. Results.The present paper focuses on the MHD simulations that follow the ejection of magnetic flux ropes to 4 R⊙. We first propose a technique for specifying the pre-eruptive plasma properties in the corona. Next, time dependent MHD simulations describe the ejection of two magnetic flux ropes, that produce time dependent boundary conditions for the magnetic field and plasma at 4 R⊙ that in future may be applied to interplanetary space weather prediction models. Conclusions: In the present paper, we show that the dual use of quasi-static non-potential magnetic field simulations and full time dependent MHD simulations can produce realistic inhomogeneous boundary conditions for space weather forecasting tools. Before a fully operational model can be produced there are a number of technical and scientific challenges that still need to be addressed. Nevertheless, we illustrate that coupling quasi-static and MHD simulations in this way can significantly reduce the computational time required to produce realistic space weather boundary conditions.

Potential Improvements in Space Weather Forecasting using New Products Developed for the Upcoming DSCOVR Solar Wind Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cash, M. D.; Biesecker, D. A.; Reinard, A. A.

2013-05-01

The Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) mission, which is scheduled for launch in late 2014, will provide real-time solar wind thermal plasma and magnetic measurements to ensure continuous monitoring for space weather forecasting. DSCOVR will be located at the L1 Lagrangian point and will include a Faraday cup to measure the proton and alpha components of the solar wind and a triaxial fluxgate magnetometer to measure the magnetic field in three dimensions. The real-time data provided by DSCOVR will be used to generate space weather applications and products that have been demonstrated to be highly accurate and provide actionable information for customers. We present several future space weather products currently under evaluation for development. New potential space weather products for use with DSCOVR real-time data include: automated shock detection, more accurate L1 to Earth delay time, automatic solar wind regime identification, and prediction of rotations in solar wind Bz within magnetic clouds. Additional ideas from the community on future space weather products are encouraged.

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hejduk, Matthew D.; Newman, Lauri K.; Besser, Rebecca L.; Pachura, Daniel A.

2015-01-01

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

Workshop Report on Space Weather Risks and Society

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Langhoff, Stephanie R.; Straume, Tore

2012-01-01

As technological innovations produce new capabilities, complexities, and interdependencies, our susceptibility to the societal impacts of space weather increase. There is real concern in the scientific community that our infrastructure would be at significant risk if a major geomagnetic storm should occur. To discuss the societal impacts of space weather, we brought together an interdisciplinary group of subject matter experts and societal stakeholders to participate in a workshop entitled Space Weather Risks and Society. The workshop was held at Ames Research Center (ARC) on 15-16 October 2011. The workshop was co-sponsored by NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), the Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center (LMATC), the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA), and the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL, part of the UK Science and Technology Facilities Council STFC). The workshop is part of a series of informal weekend workshops hosted by Center Director Pete Worden.

Ion Irradiation Experiments on the Murchison CM2 Carbonaceous Chondrite: Simulating Space Weathering of Primitive Asteroids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, L. P.; Christoffersen, R.; Dukes, C. A.; Baragiola, R. A.; Rahman, Z.

2015-01-01

Remote sensing observations show that space weathering processes affect all airless bodies in the Solar System to some degree. Sample analyses and lab experiments provide insights into the chemical, spectroscopic and mineralogic effects of space weathering and aid in the interpretation of remote- sensing data. For example, analyses of particles returned from the S-type asteroid Itokawa by the Hayabusa mission revealed that space-weathering on that body was dominated by interactions with the solar wind acting on LL ordinary chondrite-like materials [1, 2]. Understanding and predicting how the surface regoliths of primitive carbonaceous asteroids respond to space weathering processes is important for future sample return missions (Hayabusa 2 and OSIRIS-REx) that are targeting objects of this type. Here, we report the results of our preliminary ion irradiation experiments on a hydrated carbonaceous chondrite with emphasis on microstructural and infrared spectral changes.

Space and ground segment performance of the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC mission: four years in orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fong, C.-J.; Whiteley, D.; Yang, E.; Cook, K.; Chu, V.; Schreiner, B.; Ector, D.; Wilczynski, P.; Liu, T.-Y.; Yen, N.

2011-01-01

The FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) mission consisting of six Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) satellites is the world's first demonstration constellation using radio occultation signals from Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. The radio occultation signals are retrieved in near real-time for global weather/climate monitoring, numerical weather prediction, and space weather research. The mission has processed on average 1400 to 1800 high-quality atmospheric sounding profiles per day. The atmospheric radio occultation soundings data are assimilated into operational numerical weather prediction models for global weather prediction, including typhoon/hurricane/cyclone forecasts. The radio occultation data has shown a positive impact on weather predictions at many national weather forecast centers. A proposed follow-on mission transitions the program from the current experimental research system to a significantly improved real-time operational system, which will reliably provide 8000 radio occultation soundings per day. The follow-on mission as planned will consist of 12 satellites with a data latency of 45 min, which will provide greatly enhanced opportunities for operational forecasts and scientific research. This paper will address the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC system and mission overview, the spacecraft and ground system performance after four years in orbit, the lessons learned from the encountered technical challenges and observations, and the expected design improvements for the new spacecraft and ground system.

The application of heliospheric imaging to space weather operations: Lessons learned from published studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Richard A.; Davies, Jackie A.; Biesecker, Doug; Gibbs, Mark

2017-08-01

The field of heliospheric imaging has matured significantly over the last 10 years—corresponding, in particular, to the launch of NASA's STEREO mission and the successful operation of the heliospheric imager (HI) instruments thereon. In parallel, this decade has borne witness to a marked increase in concern over the potentially damaging effects of space weather on space and ground-based technological assets, and the corresponding potential threat to human health, such that it is now under serious consideration at governmental level in many countries worldwide. Hence, in a political climate that recognizes the pressing need for enhanced operational space weather monitoring capabilities most appropriately stationed, it is widely accepted, at the Lagrangian L1 and L5 points, it is timely to assess the value of heliospheric imaging observations in the context of space weather operations. To this end, we review a cross section of the scientific analyses that have exploited heliospheric imagery—particularly from STEREO/HI—and discuss their relevance to operational predictions of, in particular, coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival at Earth and elsewhere. We believe that the potential benefit of heliospheric images to the provision of accurate CME arrival predictions on an operational basis, although as yet not fully realized, is significant and we assert that heliospheric imagery is central to any credible space weather mission, particularly one located at a vantage point off the Sun-Earth line.

Solar Drivers for Space Weather Operations (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, S. M.

2013-12-01

Most space weather effects can be tied back to the Sun, and major research efforts are devoted to understanding the physics of the relevant phenomena with a long-term view of predicting their occurrence. This talk will focus on the current state of knowledge regarding the solar drivers of space weather, and in particular the connection between the science and operational needs. Topics covered will include the effects of solar ionizing flux on communications and navigation, radio interference, flare forecasting, the solar wind and the arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth.

Space Weather Studies at Istanbul Technical University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaymaz, Zerefsan

2016-07-01

This presentation will introduce the Upper Atmosphere and Space Weather Laboratory of Istanbul Technical University (ITU). It has been established to support the educational needs of the Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 2011 to conduct scientific research in Space Weather, Space Environment, Space Environment-Spacecraft Interactions, Space instrumentation and Upper Atmospheric studies. Currently the laboratory has some essential infrastructure and the most instrumentation for ionospheric observations and ground induced currents from the magnetosphere. The laboratory has two subunits: SWIFT dealing with Space Weather Instrumentation and Forecasting unit and SWDPA dealing with Space Weather Data Processing and Analysis. The research area covers wide range of upper atmospheric and space science studies from ionosphere, ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling, magnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms, distant magnetotail, magnetopause and bow shock studies, as well as solar and solar wind disturbances and their interaction with the Earth's space environment. We also study the spacecraft environment interaction and novel plasma instrument design. Several scientific projects have been carried out in the laboratory. Operational objectives of our laboratory will be carried out with the collaboration of NASA's Space Weather Laboratory and the facilities are in the process of integration to their prediction services. Educational and research objectives, as well as the examples from the research carried out in our laboratory will be demonstrated in this presentation.

An outline of the review on space weather in Latin America: space science, research networks and space weather center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Nardin, C. M.; Dasso, S.; Gonzalez-Esparza, A.

2016-12-01

The present work is an outline of a three-part review on space weather in Latin America. The first paper (part 1) comprises the evolution of several Latin American institutions investing in space science since the 1960's, focusing on the solar-terrestrial interactions, which today is commonly called space weather. Despite recognizing advances in space research in all of Latin America, this part 1 is restricted to the development observed in three countries in particular (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational centers for monitoring space weather. The review starts with a brief summary of the first groups to start working with space science in Latin America. This first part of the review closes with the current status and the research interests of these groups, which are described in relation to the most significant works and challenges of the next decade in order to aid in the solving of space weather open issues. The second paper (part 2) comprises a summary of scientific challenges in space weather research that are considered to be open scientific questions and how they are being addressed in terms of instrumentation by the international community, including the Latin American groups. We also provide an inventory of the networks and collaborations being constructed in Latin America, including details on the data processing, capabilities and a basic description of the resulting variables. These instrumental networks currently used for space science research are gradually being incorporated into the space weather monitoring data pipelines as their data provides key variables for monitoring and forecasting space weather, which allow these centers to monitor space weather and issue warnings and alerts. The third paper (part 3) presents the decision process for the spinning off of space weather prediction centers from space science groups with our interpretation of the reason/opportunities that leads to this. Lastly, the constraints for the progress in space weather monitoring, research, and forecast are listed with recommendations to overcome them, which we believe will lead to the access of key variables for the monitoring and forecasting space weather, which will allow these centers to better monitor space weather and issue warnings and alerts.

Synopsis of the Review on Space Weather in Latin America: Space Science, Research Networks and Space Weather Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, Americo

2016-07-01

The present work is a synopsis of a three-part review on space weather in Latin America. The first paper (part 1) comprises the evolution of several Latin American institutions investing in space science since the 1960's, focusing on the solar-terrestrial interactions, which today is commonly called space weather. Despite recognizing advances in space research in all of Latin America, this part 1 is restricted to the development observed in three countries in particular (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational centers for monitoring space weather. The review starts with a brief summary of the first groups to start working with space science in Latin America. This first part of the review closes with the current status and the research interests of these groups, which are described in relation to the most significant works and challenges of the next decade in order to aid in the solving of space weather open issues. The second paper (part 2) comprises a summary of scientific challenges in space weather research that are considered to be open scientific questions and how they are being addressed in terms of instrumentation by the international community, including the Latin American groups. We also provide an inventory of the networks and collaborations being constructed in Latin America, including details on the data processing, capabilities and a basic description of the resulting variables. These instrumental networks currently used for space science research are gradually being incorporated into the space weather monitoring data pipelines as their data provides key variables for monitoring and forecasting space weather, which allow these centers to monitor space weather and issue warnings and alerts. The third paper (part 3) presents the decision process for the spinning off of space weather prediction centers from space science groups with our interpretation of the reason/opportunities that leads to this. Lastly, the constraints for the progress in space weather monitoring, research, and forecast are listed with recommendations to overcome them, which we believe will lead to the access of key variables for the monitoring and forecasting space weather, which will allow these centers to better monitor space weather and issue warnings and alerts.

Forecasting Propagation and Evolution of CMEs in an Operational Setting: What Has Been Learned

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zheng, Yihua; Macneice, Peter; Odstrcil, Dusan; Mays, M. L.; Rastaetter, Lutz; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, M. Masha; Lee, Hyesook;

Forecasting propagation and evolution of CMEs in an operational setting: What has been learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Yihua; Macneice, Peter; Odstrcil, Dusan; Mays, M. L.; Rastaetter, Lutz; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Hesse, Michael; Masha Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna

2013-10-01

of the major types of solar eruption, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) not only impact space weather, but also can have significant societal consequences. CMEs cause intense geomagnetic storms and drive fast mode shocks that accelerate charged particles, potentially resulting in enhanced radiation levels both in ions and electrons. Human and technological assets in space can be endangered as a result. CMEs are also the major contributor to generating large amplitude Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs), which are a source of concern for power grid safety. Due to their space weather significance, forecasting the evolution and impacts of CMEs has become a much desired capability for space weather operations worldwide. Based on our operational experience at Space Weather Research Center at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov), we present here some of the insights gained about accurately predicting CME impacts, particularly in relation to space weather operations. These include: 1. The need to maximize information to get an accurate handle of three-dimensional (3-D) CME kinetic parameters and therefore improve CME forecast; 2. The potential use of CME simulation results for qualitative prediction of regions of space where solar energetic particles (SEPs) may be found; 3. The need to include all CMEs occurring within a 24 h period for a better representation of the CME interactions; 4. Various other important parameters in forecasting CME evolution in interplanetary space, with special emphasis on the CME propagation direction. It is noted that a future direction for our CME forecasting is to employ the ensemble modeling approach.

Realtime Space Weather Forecasts Via Android Phone App

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowley, G.; Haacke, B.; Reynolds, A.

2010-12-01

For the past several years, ASTRA has run a first-principles global 3-D fully coupled thermosphere-ionosphere model in real-time for space weather applications. The model is the Thermosphere-Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIMEGCM). ASTRA also runs the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) in real-time. Using AMIE to drive the high latitude inputs to the TIMEGCM produces high fidelity simulations of the global thermosphere and ionosphere. These simulations can be viewed on the Android Phone App developed by ASTRA. The SpaceWeather app for the Android operating system is free and can be downloaded from the Google Marketplace. We present the current status of realtime thermosphere-ionosphere space-weather forcasting and discuss the way forward. We explore some of the issues in maintaining real-time simulations with assimilative data feeds in a quasi-operational setting. We also discuss some of the challenges of presenting large amounts of data on a smartphone. The ASTRA SpaceWeather app includes the broadest and most unique range of space weather data yet to be found on a single smartphone app. This is a one-stop-shop for space weather and the only app where you can get access to ASTRA’s real-time predictions of the global thermosphere and ionosphere, high latitude convection and geomagnetic activity. Because of the phone's GPS capability, users can obtain location specific vertical profiles of electron density, temperature, and time-histories of various parameters from the models. The SpaceWeather app has over 9000 downloads, 30 reviews, and a following of active users. It is clear that real-time space weather on smartphones is here to stay, and must be included in planning for any transition to operational space-weather use.

NCEP Central Operations

Science.gov Websites

Climate Climate Prediction Climate Archives Weather Safety Storm Ready NOAA Central Library Photo Library NCO's MISSION * Execute the NCEP operational model suite - Create climate, weather, ocean, space and ) NCO Organizational Chart NOAA's Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System is known as

A regressive storm model for extreme space weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terkildsen, Michael; Steward, Graham; Neudegg, Dave; Marshall, Richard

2012-07-01

Extreme space weather events, while rare, pose significant risk to society in the form of impacts on critical infrastructure such as power grids, and the disruption of high end technological systems such as satellites and precision navigation and timing systems. There has been an increased focus on modelling the effects of extreme space weather, as well as improving the ability of space weather forecast centres to identify, with sufficient lead time, solar activity with the potential to produce extreme events. This paper describes the development of a data-based model for predicting the occurrence of extreme space weather events from solar observation. The motivation for this work was to develop a tool to assist space weather forecasters in early identification of solar activity conditions with the potential to produce extreme space weather, and with sufficient lead time to notify relevant customer groups. Data-based modelling techniques were used to construct the model, and an extensive archive of solar observation data used to train, optimise and test the model. The optimisation of the base model aimed to eliminate false negatives (missed events) at the expense of a tolerable increase in false positives, under the assumption of an iterative improvement in forecast accuracy during progression of the solar disturbance, as subsequent data becomes available.

The Art and Science of Long-Range Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.

2006-01-01

Long-range space weather forecasts are akin to seasonal forecasts of terrestrial weather. We don t expect to forecast individual events but we do hope to forecast the underlying level of activity important for satellite operations and mission pl&g. Forecasting space weather conditions years or decades into the future has traditionally been based on empirical models of the solar cycle. Models for the shape of the cycle as a function of its amplitude become reliable once the amplitude is well determined - usually two to three years after minimum. Forecasting the amplitude of a cycle well before that time has been more of an art than a science - usually based on cycle statistics and trends. Recent developments in dynamo theory -the theory explaining the generation of the Sun s magnetic field and the solar activity cycle - have now produced models with predictive capabilities. Testing these models with historical sunspot cycle data indicates that these predictions may be highly reliable one, or even two, cycles into the future.

The DSCOVR Solar Wind Mission and Future Space Weather Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cash, M. D.; Biesecker, D. A.; Reinard, A. A.

2012-12-01

The Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) mission, scheduled for launch in mid-2014, will provide real-time solar wind thermal plasma and magnetic measurements to ensure continuous monitoring for space weather forecasting. DSCOVR will orbit L1 and will serve as a follow-on mission to NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), which was launched in 1997. DSCOVR will have a total of six instruments, two of which will provide real-time data necessary for space weather forecasting: a Faraday cup to measure the proton and alpha components of the solar wind, and a triaxial fluxgate magnetometer to measure the magnetic field in three dimensions. Real-time data provided by DSCOVR will include Vx, Vy, Vz, n, T, Bx, By, and Bz. Such real-time L1 data is used in generating space weather applications and products that have been demonstrated to be highly accurate and provide actionable information for customers. We evaluate current space weather products driven by ACE and discuss future products under development for DSCOVR. New space weather products under consideration include: automated shock detection, more accurate L1 to Earth delay time, and prediction of rotations in solar wind Bz within magnetic clouds. Suggestions from the community on product ideas are welcome.

The Unifying Principle of Coordinated Measurements in Geospace Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotko, William

2017-04-01

Space scientists recognize geospace as a coupled dynamical system extending from the Earth's upper atmosphere, ionosphere, and magnetosphere, through interplanetary space to the Sun. The weather in geospace describes variability in the electromagnetic fields, particle radiation, plasmas, and gases permeating it, usually in response to solar disturbances. Severe space weather poses a significant threat to human activities in space and to modern technological systems deployed both in space and at Earth. The challenge of characterizing and predicting space weather requires widely distributed, coordinated observations. Partnerships among government agencies, international consortia, and the private sector are developing creative solutions to address this challenge. This brief commentary highlights some of the coordinated measurements and data systems that are unifying knowledge of the geospace environment.

Tethered Satellites as Enabling Platforms for an Operational Space Weather Monitoring System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krause, L. Habash; Gilchrist, B. E.; Bilen, S.; Owens, J.; Voronka, N.; Furhop, K.

2013-01-01

Space weather nowcasting and forecasting models require assimilation of near-real time (NRT) space environment data to improve the precision and accuracy of operational products. Typically, these models begin with a climatological model to provide "most probable distributions" of environmental parameters as a function of time and space. The process of NRT data assimilation gently pulls the climate model closer toward the observed state (e.g. via Kalman smoothing) for nowcasting, and forecasting is achieved through a set of iterative physics-based forward-prediction calculations. The issue of required space weather observatories to meet the spatial and temporal requirements of these models is a complex one, and we do not address that with this poster. Instead, we present some examples of how tethered satellites can be used to address the shortfalls in our ability to measure critical environmental parameters necessary to drive these space weather models. Examples include very long baseline electric field measurements, magnetized ionospheric conductivity measurements, and the ability to separate temporal from spatial irregularities in environmental parameters. Tethered satellite functional requirements will be presented for each space weather parameter considered in this study.

Vision for the Future of Lws TR&T

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwadron, N.; Mannucci, A. J.; Antiochos, S. K.; Bhattacharjee, A.; Gombosi, T. I.; Gopalswamy, N.; Kamalabadi, F.; Linker, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Spence, H. E.; Tobiska, W. K.; Weimer, D. R.; Withers, P.; Bisi, M. M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Miller, K. L.; Moretto, T.; Onsager, T. G.; Roussev, I. I.; Viereck, R. A.

2014-12-01

The Living With a Star (LWS) program addresses acute societal needs for understanding the effects of space weather and developing scientific knowledge to support predictive capabilities. Our society's heavy reliance on technologies affected by the space environment, an enormous number of airline customers, interest in space tourism, and the developing plans for long-duration human exploration space missions are clear examples that demonstrate urgent needs for space weather models and detailed understanding of space weather effects and risks. Since its inception, the LWS program has provided a vehicle to innovate new mechanisms for conducting research, building highly effective interdisciplinary teams, and ultimately in developing the scientific understanding needed to transition research tools into operational models that support the predictive needs of our increasingly space-reliant society. The advances needed require broad-based observations that cannot be obtained by large missions alone. The Decadal Survey (HDS, 2012) outlines the nation's needs for scientific development that will build the foundation for tomorrow's space weather services. Addressing these goals, LWS must develop flexible pathways to space utilizing smaller, more diverse and rapid development of observational platforms. Expanding utilization of ground-based assets and shared launches will also significantly enhance opportunities to fulfill the growing LWS data needs. Partnerships between NASA divisions, national/international agencies, and with industry will be essential for leveraging resources to address increasing societal demand for space weather advances. Strengthened connections to user communities will enhance the quality and impact of deliverables from LWS programs. Thus, we outline the developing vision for the future of LWS, stressing the need for deeper scientific understanding to improve forecasting capabilities, for more diverse data resources, and for project deliverables that address the growing needs of user communities.

Future Missions for Space Weather Specifications and Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onsager, T. G.; Biesecker, D. A.; Anthes, R. A.; Maier, M. W.; Gallagher, F. W., III; St Germain, K.

2017-12-01

The progress of technology and the global integration of our economic and security infrastructures have introduced vulnerabilities to space weather that demand a more comprehensive ability to specify and to predict the dynamics of the space environment. This requires a comprehensive network of real-time space-based and ground-based observations with long-term continuity. In order to determine the most cost effective space architectures for NOAA's weather, space weather, and environmental missions, NOAA conducted the NOAA Satellite Observing System Architecture (NSOSA) study. This presentation will summarize the process used to document the future needs and the relative priorities for NOAA's operational space-based observations. This involves specifying the most important observations, defining the performance attributes at different levels of capability, and assigning priorities for achieving the higher capability levels. The highest priority observations recommended by the Space Platform Requirements Working Group (SPRWG) for improvement above a minimal capability level will be described. Finally, numerous possible satellite architectures have been explored to assess the costs and benefits of various architecture configurations.

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes.

PubMed

Campbell, Karen M; Haldeman, Kristin; Lehnig, Chris; Munayco, Cesar V; Halsey, Eric S; Laguna-Torres, V Alberto; Yagui, Martín; Morrison, Amy C; Lin, Chii-Dean; Scott, Thomas W

2015-01-01

Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather. We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5-100% at 1°C x 2% resolution. Local duration in limited areas of temperature-humidity weather-space identifies potential locations, timing, and magnitude of transmission. The weather-space profile of transmission-potential provides needed data that define a systematic and highly-sensitive weather-disease connection, demonstrating separate but coupled roles of temperature and humidity. New insights regarding natural regulation of human-mosquito transmission across diverse ecological settings advance our understanding of risk locally and globally for dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases and support advances in public health policy/operations, providing an evidence-base for modeling, predicting risk, and surveillance-prevention planning.

A NOAA/SWPC Perspective on Space Weather Forecasts That Fail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biesecker, D. A.

2014-12-01

The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) at NOAA is the Official US source for space weather watches, warning and alerts. These alerts are provided to a breadth of customers covering a range of industries, including electric utilities, airlines, emergency managers, and users of precision GPS to name a few. This talk will review the current tools used by SWPC to forecast geomagnetic storms, solar flares, and solar energetic particle events and present the SWPC performance in each of these areas. We will include a discussion of the current limitations and examples of events that proved difficult to forecast.

Space Weather Effects Produced by the Ring Current Particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganushkina, Natalia; Jaynes, Allison; Liemohn, Michael

2017-11-01

One of the definitions of space weather describes it as the time-varying space environment that may be hazardous to technological systems in space and/or on the ground and/or endanger human health or life. The ring current has its contributions to space weather effects, both in terms of particles, ions and electrons, which constitute it, and magnetic and electric fields produced and modified by it at the ground and in space. We address the main aspects of the space weather effects from the ring current starting with brief review of ring current discovery and physical processes and the Dst-index and predictions of the ring current and storm occurrence based on it. Special attention is paid to the effects on satellites produced by the ring current electrons. The ring current is responsible for several processes in the other inner magnetosphere populations, such as the plasmasphere and radiation belts which is also described. Finally, we discuss the ring current influence on the ionosphere and the generation of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC).

High resolution solar observations in the context of space weather prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Guo

Space weather has a great impact on the Earth and human life. It is important to study and monitor active regions on the solar surface and ultimately to predict space weather based on the Sun's activity. In this study, a system that uses the full power of speckle masking imaging by parallel processing to obtain high-spatial resolution images of the solar surface in near real-time has been developed and built. The application of this system greatly improves the ability to monitor the evolution of solar active regions and to predict the adverse effects of space weather. The data obtained by this system have also been used to study fine structures on the solar surface and their effects on the upper solar atmosphere. A solar active region has been studied using high resolution data obtained by speckle masking imaging. Evolution of a pore in an active region presented. Formation of a rudimentary penumbra is studied. The effects of the change of the magnetic fields on the upper level atmosphere is discussed. Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have a great impact on space weather. To study the relationship between CMEs and filament disappearance, a list of 431 filament and prominence disappearance events has been compiled. Comparison of this list with CME data obtained by satellite has shown that most filament disappearances seem to have no corresponding CME events. Even for the limb events, only thirty percent of filament disappearances are associated with CMEs. A CME event that was observed on March 20, 2000 has been studied in detail. This event did not show the three-parts structure of typical CMEs. The kinematical and morphological properties of this event were examined.

Radiation Effects on Emerging Technologies: Implications of Space Weather Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LaBel, Kenneth A.; Barth, Janet L.

2000-01-01

As NASA and its space partners endeavor to develop a network of satellites capable of supporting humankind's needs for advanced space weather prediction and understanding, one of the key challenges is to design a space system to operate in the natural space radiation environment In this paper, we present a description of the natural space radiation environment, the effects of interest to electronic or photonic systems, and a sample of emerging technologies and their specific issues. We conclude with a discussion of operations in the space radiation hazard and considerations for risk management.

Facility Will Help Transition Models Into Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Mohi

2009-02-01

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA SWPC), in partnership with the U.S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), is establishing a center to promote and facilitate the transition of space weather models to operations. The new facility, called the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC), will take models used by researchers and rigorously test them to see if they can withstand continued use as viable warning systems. If a model used in a space weather warning system crashes or fails to perform well, severe consequences can result. These include increased radiation risks to astronauts and people traveling on high-altitude flights, national security vulnerabilities from the loss of military satellite communications, and the cost of replacing damaged military and commercial spacecraft.

Effects of Space Weathering on Reflectance Spectra of Ureilites: First Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodrich, C. A.; Gillis-Davis, J.; Cloutis, E.; Applin, D.; Takir, D.; Hibbitts, C.; Christoffersen, R.; Fries, M.; Klima, R.; Decker, S.

2018-01-01

Ureilites are differentiated meteorites (ultramafic rocks interpreted to be mantle residues) that contain as much carbon as the most carbon-rich carbonaceous chondrites (CCs). Reflectance spectra of ureilites are similar to those of some CCs. Hence, ureilitic asteroids may accidentally be categorized as primitive because their spectra could resemble those of C-complex asteroids, which are thought to be CC-like. We began spectral studies of progressively laser-weathered ureilites with the goals of predicting UV-VIS-IR spectra of ureilitic asteroids, and identifying features that could distinguish differentiated from primitive dark asteroids. Space weathering has not previously been studied for ureilites, and, based on space weathering studies of CCs and other C-rich materials, it could significantly alter their reflectance spectra.

Space Weather Research Presented at the 2007 AGU Fall Meeting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Mohi

2007-12-01

AGU's 47th annual Fall Meeting, held 10-14 December 2007 in San Francisco, Calif., was the largest gathering of geoscientists in the Union's history. More than 14,600 people attended. The Space Physics and Aeronomy (SPA) sections sported excellent turnout, with more than 1300 abstracts submitted over 114 poster and oral sessions. Topics discussed that related to space weather were manifold: the nature of the Sun-Earth system revealed through newly launched satellites, observations and models of ionospheric convection, advances in the understanding of radiation belt physics, Sun-Earth coupling via energetic coupling, data management and archiving into virtual observatories, and the applications of all this research to space weather forecasting and prediction.

Ionospheric Response to Extremes in the Space Environment: Establishing Benchmarks for the Space Weather Action Plan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viereck, R. A.; Azeem, S. I.

2017-12-01

One of the goals of the National Space Weather Action Plan is to establish extreme event benchmarks. These benchmarks are estimates of environmental parameters that impact technologies and systems during extreme space weather events. Quantitative assessment of anticipated conditions during these extreme space weather event will enable operators and users of affected technologies to develop plans for mitigating space weather risks and improve preparedness. The ionosphere is one of the most important regions of space because so many applications either depend on ionospheric space weather for their operation (HF communication, over-the-horizon radars), or can be deleteriously affected by ionospheric conditions (e.g. GNSS navigation and timing, UHF satellite communications, synthetic aperture radar, HF communications). Since the processes that influence the ionosphere vary over time scales from seconds to years, it continues to be a challenge to adequately predict its behavior in many circumstances. Estimates with large uncertainties, in excess of 100%, may result in operators of impacted technologies over or under preparing for such events. The goal of the next phase of the benchmarking activity is to reduce these uncertainties. In this presentation, we will focus on the sources of uncertainty in the ionospheric response to extreme geomagnetic storms. We will then discuss various research efforts required to better understand the underlying processes of ionospheric variability and how the uncertainties in ionospheric response to extreme space weather could be reduced and the estimates improved.

Alexander Hegedus Lightning Talk: Integrating Measurements to Optimize Space Weather Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegedus, A. M.

2017-12-01

Alexander Hegedus is a PhD Candidate at the University of Michigan, and won an Outstanding Student Paper Award at the AGU 2016 Fall Meeting for his poster "Simulating 3D Spacecraft Constellations for Low Frequency Radio Imaging." In this short talk, Alex outlines his current research of analyzing data from both real and simulated instruments to answer Heliophysical questions. He then sketches out future plans to simulate science pipelines in a real-time data assimilation model that uses a Bayesian framework to integrate information from different instruments to determine the efficacy of future Space Weather Alert systems. MHD simulations made with Michigan's own Space Weather Model Framework will provide input to simulated instruments, acting as an Observing System Simulation Experiment to verify that a certain set of measurements can accurately predict different classes of Space Weather events.

The Social and Economic Impacts of Space Weather (US Project)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bisi, M. M.; Webb, D. F.; Oughton, E. J.; Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.; Basoli, D.; Griot, O.

2017-12-01

The National Space Weather Action Plan calls for new research into the social and economic impacts of space weather and for the development of quantitative estimates of potential costs. In response to this call, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and Abt Associates are working together to identify, describe, and quantify the impact of space weather to U.S. interests. This study covers impacts resulting from both moderate and severe space weather events across four technological sectors: Electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) users. It captures the full range of potential impacts, identified from an extensive literature review and from additional conversations with more than 50 sector stakeholders of diverse expertise from engineering to operations to end users. We organize and discuss our findings in terms of five broad but interrelated impact categories including Defensive Investments, Mitigating Actions, Asset Damages, Service Interruptions, and Health Effects. We also present simple, tractable estimates of the potential costs where we focused on quantifying a subset of all identified impacts that are apt to be largest and are also most plausible during moderate and more severe space weather scenarios. We hope that our systematic exploration of the social and economic impacts provides a foundation for the future work that is critical for designing technologies, developing procedures, and implementing policies that can effectively reduce our known and evolving vulnerabilities to this natural hazard.

A Space Weather Forecasting System with Multiple Satellites Based on a Self-Recognizing Network

PubMed Central

Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Ishida, Yoshiteru

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a space weather forecasting system at geostationary orbit for high-energy electron flux (>2 MeV). The forecasting model involves multiple sensors on multiple satellites. The sensors interconnect and evaluate each other to predict future conditions at geostationary orbit. The proposed forecasting model is constructed using a dynamic relational network for sensor diagnosis and event monitoring. The sensors of the proposed model are located at different positions in space. The satellites for solar monitoring equip with monitoring devices for the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed. The satellites orbit near the Earth monitoring high-energy electron flux. We investigate forecasting for typical two examples by comparing the performance of two models with different numbers of sensors. We demonstrate the prediction by the proposed model against coronal mass ejections and a coronal hole. This paper aims to investigate a possibility of space weather forecasting based on the satellite network with in-situ sensing. PMID:24803190

A space weather forecasting system with multiple satellites based on a self-recognizing network.

PubMed

Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Ishida, Yoshiteru

2014-05-05

This paper proposes a space weather forecasting system at geostationary orbit for high-energy electron flux (>2 MeV). The forecasting model involves multiple sensors on multiple satellites. The sensors interconnect and evaluate each other to predict future conditions at geostationary orbit. The proposed forecasting model is constructed using a dynamic relational network for sensor diagnosis and event monitoring. The sensors of the proposed model are located at different positions in space. The satellites for solar monitoring equip with monitoring devices for the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed. The satellites orbit near the Earth monitoring high-energy electron flux. We investigate forecasting for typical two examples by comparing the performance of two models with different numbers of sensors. We demonstrate the prediction by the proposed model against coronal mass ejections and a coronal hole. This paper aims to investigate a possibility of space weather forecasting based on the satellite network with in-situ sensing.

Preliminary Observing System Simulation Experiments for Doppler Wind Lidars Deployed on the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kemp, E.; Jacob, J.; Rosenberg, R.; Jusem, J. C.; Emmitt, G. D.; Wood, S.; Greco, L. P.; Riishojgaard, L. P.; Masutani, M.; Ma, Z.;

The scientific challenges to forecasting the propagation of space weather through the heliosphere (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Holst, B.; Manchester, W.; Sokolov, I.; Toth, G.; Gombosi, T. I.

2013-12-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are a major source of potentially destructive space weather conditions. Understanding and forecasting these events are of utmost importance. In this presentation we discuss the progress towards a physics-based predictive capability within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF). We demonstrate our latest development in the AWSoM (Alfven Wave Solar Model) global model of the solar corona and inner heliosphere. This model accounts for the coupled thermodynamics of the electrons and protons via single fluid magnetohydrodynamics. The coronal heating and solar wind acceleration are addressed with Alfvén wave turbulence. The realistic 3D magnetic field is simulated using data from the photospheric magnetic field measurements. The AWSoM model serves as a workhorse for modeling CMEs from initial eruption to prediction at 1AU. With selected events we will demonstrate the complexity and challenges associated with CME propagation.

Experience Transitioning Models and Data at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Thomas

2016-07-01

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has a long history of transitioning research data and models into operations and with the validation activities required. The first stage in this process involves demonstrating that the capability has sufficient value to customers to justify the cost needed to transition it and to run it continuously and reliably in operations. Once the overall value is demonstrated, a substantial effort is then required to develop the operational software from the research codes. The next stage is to implement and test the software and product generation on the operational computers. Finally, effort must be devoted to establishing long-term measures of performance, maintaining the software, and working with forecasters, customers, and researchers to improve over time the operational capabilities. This multi-stage process of identifying, transitioning, and improving operational space weather capabilities will be discussed using recent examples. Plans for future activities will also be described.

Space Weather Forecasting at NOAA with Michigan's Geospace Model: Results from the First Year in Real-Time Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cash, M. D.; Singer, H. J.; Millward, G. H.; Balch, C. C.; Toth, G.; Welling, D. T.

2017-12-01

In October 2016, the first version of the Geospace model was transitioned into real-time operations at NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). The Geospace model is a part of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) developed at the University of Michigan, and the model simulates the full time-dependent 3D Geospace environment (Earth's magnetosphere, ring current and ionosphere) and predicts global space weather parameters such as induced magnetic perturbations in space and on Earth's surface. The current version of the Geospace model uses three coupled components of SWMF: the BATS-R-US global magnetosphere model, the Rice Convection Model (RCM) of the inner magnetosphere, and the Ridley Ionosphere electrodynamics Model (RIM). In the operational mode, SWMF/Geospace runs continually in real-time as long as there is new solar wind data arriving from a satellite at L1, either DSCOVR or ACE. We present an analysis of the overall performance of the Geospace model during the first year of real-time operations. Evaluation metrics include Kp, Dst, as well as regional magnetometer stations. We will also present initial results from new products, such as the AE index, available with the recent upgrade to the Geospace model.

Design of an Aircraft Vortex Spacing System for Airport Capacity Improvement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinton, David A.; Charnock, James K.; Bagwell, Donald R.

2000-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is addressing airport capacity enhancements through the Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) program. Within TAP, the Reduced Spacing Operations element at the NASA Langley Research Center is developing an Aircraft VOrtex Spacing System (AVOSS). AVOSS will integrate the output of several systems to produce weather dependent, dynamic wake vortex spacing criteria. These systems provide current and predicted weather conditions, models of wake vortex transport and decay in these weather conditions, and real-time feedback of wake vortex behavior from sensors. The goal of the NASA program is to provide the research and development to demonstrate an engineering model AVOSS, in real-time operation, at a major airport. A wake vortex system test facility was established at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) in 1997 and tested in 1998. Results from operation of the initial AVOSS system, plus advances in wake vortex prediction and near-term weather forecast models, "nowcast", have been integrated into a second-generation system. This AVOSS version is undergoing final checkout in preparation for a system demonstration in 2000. This paper describes the revised AVOSS system architecture, subsystem enhancements, and initial results with AVOSS version 2 from a deployment at DFW in the fall of 1999.

Operational specification and forecasting advances for Dst, LEO thermospheric densities, and aviation radiation dose and dose rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W.; Knipp, D. J.; Burke, W. J.; Bouwer, D.; Bailey, J. J.; Hagan, M. P.; Didkovsky, L. V.; Garrett, H. B.; Bowman, B. R.; Gannon, J. L.; Atwell, W.; Blake, J. B.; Crain, W.; Rice, D.; Schunk, R. W.; Fulgham, J.; Bell, D.; Gersey, B.; Wilkins, R.; Fuschino, R.; Flynn, C.; Cecil, K.; Mertens, C. J.; Xu, X.; Crowley, G.; Reynolds, A.; Azeem, S. I.; Wiley, S.; Holland, M.; Malone, K.

2013-12-01

Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the magnetosphere, thermosphere, and even troposphere are key regions that are affected. Space Environment Technologies (SET) has developed and is producing innovative space weather applications. Key operational systems for providing timely information about the effects of space weather on these domains are SET's Magnetosphere Alert and Prediction System (MAPS), LEO Alert and Prediction System (LAPS), and Automated Radiation Measurements for Aviation Safety (ARMAS) system. MAPS provides a forecast Dst index out to 6 days through the data-driven, redundant data stream Anemomilos algorithm. Anemomilos uses observational proxies for the magnitude, location, and velocity of solar ejecta events. This forecast index is used by satellite operations to characterize upcoming geomagnetic storms, for example. LAPS is the SET fully redundant operational system providing recent history, current epoch, and forecast solar and geomagnetic indices for use in operational versions of the JB2008 thermospheric density model. The thermospheric densities produced by that system, driven by the LAPS data, are forecast to 72-hours to provide the global mass densities for satellite operators. ARMAS is a project that has successfully demonstrated the operation of a micro dosimeter on aircraft to capture the real-time radiation environment due to Galactic Cosmic Rays and Solar Energetic Particles. The dose and dose-rates are captured on aircraft, downlinked in real-time via the Iridium satellites, processed on the ground, incorporated into the most recent NAIRAS global radiation climatology data runs, and made available to end users via the web and smart phone apps. ARMAS provides the 'weather' of the radiation environment to improve air-crew and passenger safety. Many of the data products from MAPS, LAPS, and ARMAS are available on the SpaceWx smartphone app for iPhone, iPad, iPod, and Android professional users and public space weather education. We describe recent forecasting advances for moving the space weather information from these automated systems into operational, derivative products for communications, aviation, and satellite operations uses.

Automated shock detection and analysis algorithm for space weather application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorotnikov, Vasiliy S.; Smith, Charles W.; Hu, Qiang; Szabo, Adam; Skoug, Ruth M.; Cohen, Christina M. S.

2008-03-01

Space weather applications have grown steadily as real-time data have become increasingly available. Numerous industrial applications have arisen with safeguarding of the power distribution grids being a particular interest. NASA uses short-term and long-term space weather predictions in its launch facilities. Researchers studying ionospheric, auroral, and magnetospheric disturbances use real-time space weather services to determine launch times. Commercial airlines, communication companies, and the military use space weather measurements to manage their resources and activities. As the effects of solar transients upon the Earth's environment and society grow with the increasing complexity of technology, better tools are needed to monitor and evaluate the characteristics of the incoming disturbances. A need is for automated shock detection and analysis methods that are applicable to in situ measurements upstream of the Earth. Such tools can provide advance warning of approaching disturbances that have significant space weather impacts. Knowledge of the shock strength and speed can also provide insight into the nature of the approaching solar transient prior to arrival at the magnetopause. We report on efforts to develop a tool that can find and analyze shocks in interplanetary plasma data without operator intervention. This method will run with sufficient speed to be a practical space weather tool providing useful shock information within 1 min of having the necessary data to ground. The ability to run without human intervention frees space weather operators to perform other vital services. We describe ways of handling upstream data that minimize the frequency of false positive alerts while providing the most complete description of approaching disturbances that is reasonably possible.

Space weather modeling using artificial neural network. (Slovak Title: Modelovanie kozmického počasia umelou neurónovou sietou)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valach, F.; Revallo, M.; Hejda, P.; Bochníček, J.

2010-12-01

Our modern society with its advanced technology is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the Earth's system disorders originating in explosive processes on the Sun. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) blasted into interplanetary space as gigantic clouds of ionized gas can hit Earth within a few hours or days and cause, among other effects, geomagnetic storms - perhaps the best known manifestation of solar wind interaction with Earth's magnetosphere. Solar energetic particles (SEP), accelerated to near relativistic energy during large solar storms, arrive at the Earth's orbit even in few minutes and pose serious risk to astronauts traveling through the interplanetary space. These and many other threats are the reason why experts pay increasing attention to space weather and its predictability. For research on space weather, it is typically necessary to examine a large number of parameters which are interrelated in a complex non-linear way. One way to cope with such a task is to use an artificial neural network for space weather modeling, a tool originally developed for artificial intelligence. In our contribution, we focus on practical aspects of the neural networks application to modeling and forecasting selected space weather parameters.

Four top tier challenges for Space Weather Research for the next decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spann, James

2017-04-01

The science of space weather is that which (1) develops the knowledge and understanding to predict conditions in space that impact life and society, and (2) leads to operational solutions that protect assets and systems to the benefit of society. Advances over the past decades in this area of research have yielded amazing discoveries and significant strides toward fulfilling the promise of an operational solution to space weather, and have facilitated the enterprise to make its way into the realm of national and international policy. Even if the resources, technologies, and political will were available to take advantage of this progress, our current lack of understanding of space weather would prevent the implementation of a fully operational system. This talk will highlight four distinct areas of research that, if fully understood, could enable operational solutions to space weather impacts, given sufficient resources and political will. These areas are (a) trigger of solar variability, (b) acceleration of mass and energy in interplanetary space, (c) geoeffectiveness of solar wind, and (d) ionospheric variability. A brief description, technical challenges, and possible pathways to resolution will be offered for each of these areas.

The symmetry and mass of halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) as quantitative predictors for severe space weather at Earth.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuselier, S.; Allegrini, F.; Bzowski, M.; Dayeh, M. A.; Desai, M. I.; Funsten, H. O.; Galli, A.; Heirtzler, D.; Janzen, P. H.; Kubiak, M. A.; Kucharek, H.; Lewis, W. S.; Livadiotis, G.; McComas, D. J.; Moebius, E.; Petrinec, S. M.; Quinn, M. S.; Schwadron, N.; Sokol, J. M.; Trattner, K. J.

2014-12-01

The Bureau of Meteorology's Space Weather Service operates an alert service for severe space weather events. The service relies on a statistical model which ingests observations of M and X class solar flares at or shortly after the time of the flare to predict the occurrence and severity of terrestrial impacts with a lead time of 1 to 4 days. This model has been operational since 2012 and caters to the needs of critical infrastructure groups in the Australian region. This paper reports on improvements to the forecast model by including SOHO LASCO coronagraph observations of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The coronagraphs are analysed to determine the Earthward direction parameter and the integrated intensity as a measure of the CME mass. Both of these parameters can help to predict whether a CME will be geo-effective. This work aims to increase the accuracy of the model predictions and lower the rate of false positives, as well as providing an estimate of the expected level of geomagnetic storm intensity.

The symmetry and mass of halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) as quantitative predictors for severe space weather at Earth.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeland, L. E.; Terkildsen, M. B.

2015-12-01

The Bureau of Meteorology's Space Weather Service operates an alert service for severe space weather events. The service relies on a statistical model which ingests observations of M and X class solar flares at or shortly after the time of the flare to predict the occurrence and severity of terrestrial impacts with a lead time of 1 to 4 days. This model has been operational since 2012 and caters to the needs of critical infrastructure groups in the Australian region. This paper reports on improvements to the forecast model by including SOHO LASCO coronagraph observations of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The coronagraphs are analysed to determine the Earthward direction parameter and the integrated intensity as a measure of the CME mass. Both of these parameters can help to predict whether a CME will be geo-effective. This work aims to increase the accuracy of the model predictions and lower the rate of false positives, as well as providing an estimate of the expected level of geomagnetic storm intensity.

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes

PubMed Central

Campbell, Karen M.; Haldeman, Kristin; Lehnig, Chris; Munayco, Cesar V.; Halsey, Eric S.; Laguna-Torres, V. Alberto; Yagui, Martín; Morrison, Amy C.; Lin, Chii-Dean; Scott, Thomas W.

2015-01-01

Background Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5-100% at 1°C x 2% resolution. Conclusions/Significance Local duration in limited areas of temperature-humidity weather-space identifies potential locations, timing, and magnitude of transmission. The weather-space profile of transmission-potential provides needed data that define a systematic and highly-sensitive weather-disease connection, demonstrating separate but coupled roles of temperature and humidity. New insights regarding natural regulation of human-mosquito transmission across diverse ecological settings advance our understanding of risk locally and globally for dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases and support advances in public health policy/operations, providing an evidence-base for modeling, predicting risk, and surveillance-prevention planning. PMID:26222979

Virtual Planetary Space Weather Services offered by the Europlanet H2020 Research Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

André, N.; Grande, M.; Achilleos, N.; Barthélémy, M.; Bouchemit, M.; Benson, K.; Blelly, P.-L.; Budnik, E.; Caussarieu, S.; Cecconi, B.; Cook, T.; Génot, V.; Guio, P.; Goutenoir, A.; Grison, B.; Hueso, R.; Indurain, M.; Jones, G. H.; Lilensten, J.; Marchaudon, A.; Matthiä, D.; Opitz, A.; Rouillard, A.; Stanislawska, I.; Soucek, J.; Tao, C.; Tomasik, L.; Vaubaillon, J.

2018-01-01

Under Horizon 2020, the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure (EPN2020-RI) will include an entirely new Virtual Access Service, "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) that will extend the concepts of space weather and space situational awareness to other planets in our Solar System and in particular to spacecraft that voyage through it. PSWS will make twelve new services accessible to the research community, space agencies, and industrial partners planning for space missions. These services will in particular be dedicated to the following key planetary environments: Mars (in support of the NASA MAVEN and European Space Agency (ESA) Mars Express and ExoMars missions), comets (building on the outstanding success of the ESA Rosetta mission), and outer planets (in preparation for the ESA JUpiter ICy moon Explorer mission), and one of these services will aim at predicting and detecting planetary events like meteor showers and impacts in the Solar System. This will give the European planetary science community new methods, interfaces, functionalities and/or plugins dedicated to planetary space weather as well as to space situational awareness in the tools and models available within the partner institutes. A variety of tools (in the form of web applications, standalone software, or numerical models in various degrees of implementation) are available for tracing propagation of planetary and/or solar events through the Solar System and modelling the response of the planetary environment (surfaces, atmospheres, ionospheres, and magnetospheres) to those events. But these tools were not originally designed for planetary event prediction and space weather applications. PSWS will provide the additional research and tailoring required to apply them for these purposes. PSWS will be to review, test, improve and adapt methods and tools available within the partner institutes in order to make prototype planetary event and space weather services operational in Europe at the end of 2017. To achieve its objectives PSWS will use a few tools and standards developed for the Astronomy Virtual Observatory (VO). This paper gives an overview of the project together with a few illustrations of prototype services based on VO standards and protocols.

GOES-R Space Weather Data: Ensuring Access and Usability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilton, M.; Rowland, W. F.; Wilkinson, D. C.; Denig, W. F.; Darnel, J.; Kress, B. T.; Loto'aniu, P. T. M.; Machol, J. L.; Redmon, R. J.; Rodriguez, J. V.

2015-12-01

The upcoming Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite series, GOES-R, will provide critical space weather data. These data are used to prevent communication outages, mitigate the damage solar weather causes to satellites and power grids, and reduce astronaut radiation exposure. The space weather instruments aboard GOES-R will deliver an operational dataset of unprecedented breadth. However, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)—the organization that provides access to archived GOES-R data—has faced several challenges in delivering this information to customers in usable form. For instance, the GOES-R ground system was contracted to develop higher-level products for terrestrial data but not space weather data. Variations in GOES-R data file formats and archive locations have also threatened to create an inconsistent user experience. This presentation will examine the ways in which NCEI is making GOES-R space weather data more accessible and actionable for customers. These efforts include NCEI's development of high-level data products to meet the requirements of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center—a role NCEI has not previously played. In addition, NCEI is creating a demonstration system to show how these products can be produced in real-time. The organization is also examining customer usage of the GOES-NOP data access system and using these access patterns to drive decisions about the GOES-R user interface.

Flare forecasting at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, S. A.; Bingham, S.; Sharpe, M.; Jackson, D. R.

2017-04-01

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre produces 24/7/365 space weather guidance, alerts, and forecasts to a wide range of government and commercial end-users across the United Kingdom. Solar flare forecasts are one of its products, which are issued multiple times a day in two forms: forecasts for each active region on the solar disk over the next 24 h and full-disk forecasts for the next 4 days. Here the forecasting process is described in detail, as well as first verification of archived forecasts using methods commonly used in operational weather prediction. Real-time verification available for operational flare forecasting use is also described. The influence of human forecasters is highlighted, with human-edited forecasts outperforming original model results and forecasting skill decreasing over longer forecast lead times.

Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strong, Keith; Saba, Julia; Kucera, Therese

2011-01-01

The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations

Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strong, Keith; Saba, Julia; Kucera, Therese

2012-01-01

The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations.

Modeling AWSoM CMEs with EEGGL: A New Approach for Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, M.; Manchester, W.; van der Holst, B.; Sokolov, I.; Toth, G.; Vourlidas, A.; de Koning, C. A.; Gombosi, T. I.

2015-12-01

The major source of destructive space weather is coronal mass ejections (CMEs). However, our understanding of CMEs and their propagation in the heliosphere is limited by the insufficient observations. Therefore, the development of first-principals numerical models plays a vital role in both theoretical investigation and providing space weather forecasts. Here, we present results of the simulation of CME propagation from the Sun to 1AU by combining the analytical Gibson & Low (GL) flux rope model with the state-of-art solar wind model AWSoM. We also provide an approach for transferring this research model to a space weather forecasting tool by demonstrating how the free parameters of the GL flux rope can be prescribed based on remote observations via the new Eruptive Event Generator by Gibson-Low (EEGGL) toolkit. This capability allows us to predict the long-term evolution of the CME in interplanetary space. We perform proof-of-concept case studies to show the capability of the model to capture physical processes that determine CME evolution while also reproducing many observed features both in the corona and at 1 AU. We discuss the potential and limitations of this model as a future space weather forecasting tool.

Extreme Space Weather Events: From Cradle to Grave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, Pete; Baker, Dan; Liu, Ying D.; Verronen, Pekka; Singer, Howard; Güdel, Manuel

2018-02-01

Extreme space weather events, while rare, can have a substantial impact on our technologically-dependent society. And, although such events have only occasionally been observed, through careful analysis of a wealth of space-based and ground-based observations, historical records, and extrapolations from more moderate events, we have developed a basic picture of the components required to produce them. Several key issues, however, remain unresolved. For example, what limits are imposed on the maximum size of such events? What are the likely societal consequences of a so-called "100-year" solar storm? In this review, we summarize our current scientific understanding about extreme space weather events as we follow several examples from the Sun, through the solar corona and inner heliosphere, across the magnetospheric boundary, into the ionosphere and atmosphere, into the Earth's lithosphere, and, finally, its impact on man-made structures and activities, such as spacecraft, GPS signals, radio communication, and the electric power grid. We describe preliminary attempts to provide probabilistic forecasts of extreme space weather phenomena, and we conclude by identifying several key areas that must be addressed if we are better able to understand, and, ultimately, predict extreme space weather events.

KSC-2015-1301

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-02-07

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – A prelaunch briefing at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida brings media up to date on preparations for the liftoff of NOAA’s Deep Space Climate Observatory spacecraft, or DSCOVR. From left are Michael Curie, moderator, NASA Public Affairs, Stephen Volz, assistant administrator of the NOAA Satellite and Information Service, Tom Berger, director of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Steven Clarke, NASA Joint Agency Satellite Division director for the agency’s Science Mission Directorate, Col. D. Jason Cothern, Space Demonstrations Division chief at Kirtland Air Force Base in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Hans Koenigsmann, vice president of mission assurance at SpaceX, and Mike McAleenan, launch weather officer with the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron. DSCOVR will launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. The mission is a partnership between NOAA, NASA and the U.S. Air Force. DSCOVR will maintain the nation's real-time solar wind monitoring capabilities which are critical to the accuracy and lead time of NOAA's space weather alerts and forecasts. To learn more about DSCOVR, visit http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/DSCOVR. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-2015-1300

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-02-07

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Launch and mission officials prepare for the start of a prelaunch briefing at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida regarding NOAA’s Deep Space Climate Observatory mission, or DSCOVR. From left are Michael Curie, moderator, NASA Public Affairs, Stephen Volz, assistant administrator of the NOAA Satellite and Information Service, Tom Berger, director of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Steven Clarke, NASA Joint Agency Satellite Division director for the agency’s Science Mission Directorate, Col. D. Jason Cothern, Space Demonstrations Division chief at Kirtland Air Force Base in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Hans Koenigsmann, vice president of mission assurance at SpaceX, and Mike McAleenan, launch weather officer with the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron. DSCOVR will launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. The mission is a partnership between NOAA, NASA and the U.S. Air Force. DSCOVR will maintain the nation's real-time solar wind monitoring capabilities which are critical to the accuracy and lead time of NOAA's space weather alerts and forecasts. To learn more about DSCOVR, visit http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/DSCOVR. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

Third National Aeronautics and Space Administration Weather and climate program science review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreins, E. R. (Editor)

1977-01-01

Research results of developing experimental and prototype operational systems, sensors, and space facilities for monitoring, and understanding the atmosphere are reported. Major aspects include: (1) detection, monitoring, and prediction of severe storms; (2) improvement of global forecasting; and (3) monitoring and prediction of climate change.

Implementation of a Space Weather VOEvent service at IRAP in the frame of Europlanet H2020 PSWS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangloff, M.; André, N.; Génot, V.; Cecconi, B.; Le Sidaner, P.; Bouchemit, M.; Budnik, E.; Jourdane, N.

2017-09-01

Under Horizon 2020, the Europlanet Research Infrastructure includes PSWS (Planetary Space Weather Services), a set of new services that extend the concepts of space weather and space situation awareness to other planets of our solar system. One of these services is an Alert service associated in particular with an heliospheric propagator tool for solar wind predictions at planets, a meteor shower prediction tool, and a cometary tail crossing prediction tool. This Alert service, is based on VOEvent, an international standard proposed by the IVOA and widely used by the astronomy community. The VOEvent standard provides a means of describing transient celestial events in a machine-readable format. VOEvent is associated with VTP, the VOEvent Transfer Protocol that defines the system by which VOEvents may be disseminated to the community This presentation will focus on the enhancements of the VOEvent standard necessary to take into account the needs of the Solar System community and Comet, a freely available and open source implementation of VTP used by PSWS for its Alert service. Comet is implemented by several partners of PSWS, including IRAP and Observatoire de Paris. A use case will be presented for the heliospheric propagator tool based on extreme solar wind pressure pulses predicted at planets and probes from a 1D MHD model and real time observations of solar wind parameters.

Solar Atmosphere to Earth's Surface: Long Lead Time dB/dt Predictions with the Space Weather Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, D. T.; Manchester, W.; Savani, N.; Sokolov, I.; van der Holst, B.; Jin, M.; Toth, G.; Liemohn, M. W.; Gombosi, T. I.

2017-12-01

The future of space weather prediction depends on the community's ability to predict L1 values from observations of the solar atmosphere, which can yield hours of lead time. While both empirical and physics-based L1 forecast methods exist, it is not yet known if this nascent capability can translate to skilled dB/dt forecasts at the Earth's surface. This paper shows results for the first forecast-quality, solar-atmosphere-to-Earth's-surface dB/dt predictions. Two methods are used to predict solar wind and IMF conditions at L1 for several real-world coronal mass ejection events. The first method is an empirical and observationally based system to estimate the plasma characteristics. The magnetic field predictions are based on the Bz4Cast system which assumes that the CME has a cylindrical flux rope geometry locally around Earth's trajectory. The remaining plasma parameters of density, temperature and velocity are estimated from white-light coronagraphs via a variety of triangulation methods and forward based modelling. The second is a first-principles-based approach that combines the Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson-Low configuration (EEGGL) model with the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM). EEGGL specifies parameters for the Gibson-Low flux rope such that it erupts, driving a CME in the coronal model that reproduces coronagraph observations and propagates to 1AU. The resulting solar wind predictions are used to drive the operational Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) for geospace. Following the configuration used by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, this setup couples the BATS-R-US global magnetohydromagnetic model to the Rice Convection Model (RCM) ring current model and a height-integrated ionosphere electrodynamics model. The long lead time predictions of dB/dt are compared to model results that are driven by L1 solar wind observations. Both are compared to real-world observations from surface magnetometers at a variety of geomagnetic latitudes. Metrics are calculated to examine how the simulated solar wind drivers impact forecast skill. These results illustrate the current state of long-lead-time forecasting and the promise of this technology for operational use.

Smooth Sailing for Weather Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Through a cooperative venture with NASA's Stennis Space Center, WorldWinds, Inc., developed a unique weather and wave vector map using space-based radar satellite information and traditional weather observations. Called WorldWinds, the product provides accurate, near real-time, high-resolution weather forecasts. It was developed for commercial and scientific users. In addition to weather forecasting, the product's applications include maritime and terrestrial transportation, aviation operations, precision farming, offshore oil and gas operations, and coastal hazard response support. Target commercial markets include the operational maritime and aviation communities, oil and gas providers, and recreational yachting interests. Science applications include global long-term prediction and climate change, land-cover and land-use change, and natural hazard issues. Commercial airlines have expressed interest in the product, as it can provide forecasts over remote areas. WorldWinds, Inc., is currently providing its product to commercial weather outlets.

Sheath-accumulating Propagation of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Takuya; Shibata, Kazunari

2017-03-01

Fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are the drivers of strong space weather storms such as solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms. The connection between the space-weather-impacting solar wind disturbances associated with fast ICMEs at Earth and the characteristics of causative energetic CMEs observed near the Sun is a key question in the study of space weather storms, as well as in the development of practical space weather prediction. Such shock-driving fast ICMEs usually expand at supersonic speeds during the propagation, resulting in the continuous accumulation of shocked sheath plasma ahead. In this paper, we propose a “sheath-accumulating propagation” (SAP) model that describes the coevolution of the interplanetary sheath and decelerating ICME ejecta by taking into account the process of upstream solar wind plasma accumulation within the sheath region. Based on the SAP model, we discuss (1) ICME deceleration characteristics; (2) the fundamental condition for fast ICMEs at Earth; (3) the thickness of interplanetary sheaths; (4) arrival time prediction; and (5) the super-intense geomagnetic storms associated with huge solar flares. We quantitatively show that not only the speed but also the mass of the CME are crucial for discussing the above five points. The similarities and differences between the SAP model, the drag-based model, and the“snow-plow” model proposed by Tappin are also discussed.

Transitioning GONG data processing to NOAA SWPC operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinard, A.; Marble, A.; Hill, F.; Berger, T. E.

2015-12-01

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is the nation's official source of space weather watches, warnings, and alerts, providing 24x7 forecasting and support to critical infrastructure operators around the world. Observations of the conditions on the Sun are crucial for determining when and if a warning is needed. The Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) operated by the National Solar Observatory (NSO) consists of six ground stations, allowing continuous observations of the Sun. Of particular interest for space weather purposes are the H-alpha images and magnetograms. The H-alpha data are used to identify filaments and their eruptions, to assess active region evolution and plage extent, and to help localize flare locations. The magnetograms are used to identify neutral lines, to examine potential shearing areas and to characterize the magnetic structure of active regions. GONG magnetograms also provide the initial condition for models of solar wind expansion through the heliosphere such as the WSA-Enlil model. Although beyond the scope of current space weather applications, GONG helioseismology products can be used to assess active region emergence on the far side of the Sun and to indicate the flaring potential of a front-side active region. These products are being examined as future tools in flare prediction. NSO has operated GONG as a science facility since 1995 and has provided processed space weather data products to NOAA via public internet connections for the past several years. In 2014 the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) requested that NOAA transition the GONG network to an operational space weather asset in order to ensure the continued flow of critical magnetogram data for solar wind models. NSO will continue to operate and manage the instruments and sites, but the H-alpha images and 10 minute averaged magnetogram data will be sent directly to SWPC for processing and use in space weather modeling. SWPC will make these data available to NSO and the public via the new NOAA Integrated Dissemination Program (IDP) network. We discuss the progress and details of this change.

Transitioning GONG data processing to NOAA SWPC operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinard, Alysha; Marble, Andrew R.; Berger, Thomas

2016-05-01

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is the nation's official source of space weather watches, warnings, and alerts, providing 24x7 forecasting and support to critical infrastructure operators around the world. Observations of the conditions on the Sun are crucial for determining when and if a warning is needed. The Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) operated by the National Solar Observatory (NSO) consists of six ground stations, allowing continuous observations of the Sun. Of particular interest for space weather purposes are the H-alpha images and magnetograms. The H-alpha data are used to identify filaments and their eruptions, to assess active region evolution and plage extent, and to help localize flare locations. The magnetograms are used to identify neutral lines, to examine potential shearing areas and to characterize the magnetic structure of active regions. GONG magnetograms also provide the initial condition for models of solar wind expansion through the heliosphere such as the WSA-Enlil model. Although beyond the scope of current space weather applications, GONG helioseismology products can be used to assess active region emergence on the far side of the Sun and to indicate the flaring potential of a front-side active region. These products are being examined as future tools in flare prediction.NSO has operated GONG as a science facility since 1995 and has provided processed space weather data products to NOAA via for the past several years. In 2014 the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) requested that NOAA transition the GONG network to an operational space weather asset in order to ensure the continued flow of critical data for solar wind models. NSO will continue to operate and manage the instruments and sites, but the H-alpha images and 10 minute averaged magnetogram data will be sent directly to SWPC for processing and use in space weather modeling. SWPC will make these data available to NSO and the public via the new NOAA Integrated Dissemination Program (IDP) network. We discuss the progress and details of this change.

CME Arrival-time Validation of Real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone Simulations at the CCMC/SWRC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wold, A. M.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Jian, L.; Odstrcil, D.; MacNeice, P. J.

2016-12-01

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations worldwide to model CME propagation, as such it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC/Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). The SWRC is a CCMC sub-team that provides space weather services to NASA robotic mission operators and science campaigns, and also prototypes new forecasting models and techniques. CCMC/SWRC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME shock observations near Earth (ACE, Wind), STEREO-A and B for simulations completed between March 2010 - July 2016 (over 1500 runs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three spacecraft. For hits we compute the bias, RMSE, and average absolute CME arrival time error, and the dependence of these errors on CME input parameters. We compare the predicted geomagnetic storm strength (Kp index) to the CME arrival time error for Earth-directed CMEs. The predicted Kp index is computed using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone plasma parameters at Earth with a modified Newell et al. (2007) coupling function. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations on the CME parameters used initialize the model by comparing model validation results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A side-lobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). This model validation exercise has significance for future space weather mission planning such as L5 missions.

An Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) for Dynamical Wake Vortex Spacing Criteria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinton, D. A.

1996-01-01

A concept is presented for the development and implementation of a prototype Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS). The purpose of the AVOSS is to use current and short-term predictions of the atmospheric state in approach and departure corridors to provide, to ATC facilities, dynamical weather dependent separation criteria with adequate stability and lead time for use in establishing arrival scheduling. The AVOSS will accomplish this task through a combination of wake vortex transport and decay predictions, weather state knowledge, defined aircraft operational procedures and corridors, and wake vortex safety sensors. Work is currently underway to address the critical disciplines and knowledge needs so as to implement and demonstrate a prototype AVOSS in the 1999/2000 time frame.

Real-Time and Near Real-Time Data for Space Weather Applications and Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, H. J.; Balch, C. C.; Biesecker, D. A.; Matsuo, T.; Onsager, T. G.

2015-12-01

Space weather can be defined as conditions in the vicinity of Earth and in the interplanetary environment that are caused primarily by solar processes and influenced by conditions on Earth and its atmosphere. Examples of space weather are the conditions that result from geomagnetic storms, solar particle events, and bursts of intense solar flare radiation. These conditions can have impacts on modern-day technologies such as GPS or electric power grids and on human activities such as astronauts living on the International Space Station or explorers traveling to the moon or Mars. While the ultimate space weather goal is accurate prediction of future space weather conditions, for many applications and services, we rely on real-time and near-real time observations and model results for the specification of current conditions. In this presentation, we will describe the space weather system and the need for real-time and near-real time data that drive the system, characterize conditions in the space environment, and are used by models for assimilation and validation. Currently available data will be assessed and a vision for future needs will be given. The challenges for establishing real-time data requirements, as well as acquiring, processing, and disseminating the data will be described, including national and international collaborations. In addition to describing how the data are used for official government products, we will also give examples of how these data are used by both the public and private sector for new applications that serve the public.

Tutorial on Actual Space Environmental Hazards For Space Systems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazur, J. E.; Fennell, J. F.; Guild, T. B.; O'Brien, T. P.

2013-12-01

It has become common in the space science community to conduct research on diverse physical phenomena because they are thought to contribute to space weather. However, satellites contend with only three primary environmental hazards: single event effects, vehicle charging, and total dose, and not every physical phenomenon that occurs in space contributes in substantial ways to create these hazards. One consequence of the mismatch between actual threats and all-encompassing research is the often-described gap between research and operations; another is the creation of forecasts that provide no actionable information for design engineers or spacecraft operators. An example of the latter is the physics of magnetic field emergence on the Sun; the phenomenon is relevant to the formation and launch of coronal mass ejections and is also causally related to the solar energetic particles that may get accelerated in the interplanetary shock. Unfortunately for the research community, the engineering community mitigates the space weather threat (single-event effects from heavy ions above ~50 MeV/nucleon) with a worst-case specification of the environment and not with a prediction. Worst-case definition requires data mining of past events, while predictions involve large-scale systems science from the Sun to the Earth that is compelling for scientists and their funding agencies but not actionable for design or for most operations. Differing priorities among different space-faring organizations only compounds the confusion over what science research is relevant. Solar particle impacts to human crew arise mainly from the total ionizing dose from the solar protons, so the priority for prediction in the human spaceflight community is therefore much different than in the unmanned satellite community, while both communities refer to the fundamental phenomenon as space weather. Our goal in this paper is the presentation of a brief tutorial on the primary space environmental phenomena that are relevant to satellite design and operations. The tutorial will help space science researchers to understand the differing priorities of communities that operate in space and to better distinguish the science that is actually needed for the design and operation of all-weather space systems.

Space Science

NASA Image and Video Library

2002-06-01

NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and university scientists from the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, Alabama, are watching the Sun in an effort to better predict space weather - blasts of particles and magnetic fields from the Sun that impact the magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble around the Earth. Filled by charged particles trapped in the Earth's magnetic field, the spherical comet-shaped magnetosphere extends out 40,000 miles from Earth's surface in the sunward direction and more in other directions. This image illustrates the Sun-Earth cornection. When massive solar explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, blast through the Sun's outer atmosphere and plow toward Earth at speeds of thousands of miles per second, the resulting effects can be harmful to communication satellites and astronauts outside the Earth's magnetosphere. Like severe weather on Earth, severe space weather can be costly. On the ground, magnetic storms wrought by these solar particles can knock out electric power. By using the Solar Vector Magnetograph, a solar observation facility at MSFC, scientists are learning what signs to look for as indicators of potential severe space weather.

Characteristics of Operational Space Weather Forecasting: Observations and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Thomas; Viereck, Rodney; Singer, Howard; Onsager, Terry; Biesecker, Doug; Rutledge, Robert; Hill, Steven; Akmaev, Rashid; Milward, George; Fuller-Rowell, Tim

2015-04-01

In contrast to research observations, models and ground support systems, operational systems are characterized by real-time data streams and run schedules, with redundant backup systems for most elements of the system. We review the characteristics of operational space weather forecasting, concentrating on the key aspects of ground- and space-based observations that feed models of the coupled Sun-Earth system at the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Building on the infrastructure of the National Weather Service, SWPC is working toward a fully operational system based on the GOES weather satellite system (constant real-time operation with back-up satellites), the newly launched DSCOVR satellite at L1 (constant real-time data network with AFSCN backup), and operational models of the heliosphere, magnetosphere, and ionosphere/thermosphere/mesophere systems run on the Weather and Climate Operational Super-computing System (WCOSS), one of the worlds largest and fastest operational computer systems that will be upgraded to a dual 2.5 Pflop system in 2016. We review plans for further operational space weather observing platforms being developed in the context of the Space Weather Operations Research and Mitigation (SWORM) task force in the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) at the White House. We also review the current operational model developments at SWPC, concentrating on the differences between the research codes and the modified real-time versions that must run with zero fault tolerance on the WCOSS systems. Understanding the characteristics and needs of the operational forecasting community is key to producing research into the coupled Sun-Earth system with maximal societal benefit.

GUMICS-4 Year Run: Ground Magnetic Field Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honkonen, I. J.; Viljanen, A.; Juusola, L.; Facsko, G.; Vanhamäki, H.

2013-12-01

Space weather can have severe effects even at ground level when Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) disrupt power transmission networks, the worst case being a complete blackout affecting millions of people. The importance of space weather forecasting as well as the need for model improvement and validation has been recognized internationally. The recently concluded GUMICS-4 one year run, in which solar wind observations obtained from OMNIWeb for the period 2002-01-29 to 2003-02-02 were given as input to the model, will allow GUMICS to be validated against observations on an unprecedented scale. The performance of GUMICS can be quantified statistically, as a function of, for example, the solar wind driver, various geomagnetic indices, magnetic local time and other parameters. Here we concentrate on the ability of GUMICS to predict ground magnetic field observations for one year of simulated results. The ground magnetic field predictions are compared to observations of the mainland IMAGE magnetometer stations located at CGM latitudes 54-68 N. Furthermore the GIC derived from ground magnetic field predictions are compared to observations along the natural gas pipeline at Mäntsälä, South Finland. Various metrics are used to objectively evaluate the performance of GUMICS as a function of different parameters, thereby providing significant insight into the space weather forecasting ability of models based on first principles.

Transitioning the Rice Realtime Forecast Models to DSCOVR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bala, R.; Reiff, P. H.

2016-12-01

The Rice realtime forecast models of global magnetospheric indices Kp, Dst and AE have been actively running at mms.rice.edu/realtime/forecast.html for nearly a decade now. These neural network models were trained using the ACE archival solar wind data while the near-realtime forecasts are provided using instantaneous upwind solar wind data stream measured at the L1 point through ACE. Additionally, the webpage also provide status of the current space weather condition as an additional resource, updating every ten minutes. Furthermore, the subscribers of our space weather alert system, called `spacalrt', have been receiving email notices based on predefined thresholds. One of the gaps that is currently seen in the Rice neural network models lies in the density dependent models using variants of the solar wind pressure. The anomalous behavior in reporting densities in ACE has been a common issue for some time now. Often such behavior is observed when the solar energetic particle that are associated with solar flares or CMEs are Earth directed. Therefore, it is understood that the subsequent measures of the density reported by ACE will be either very low or, at a minimum, contaminated. Under these circumstances, the density-based Rice models typically underpredict. However, the newly launched DSCOVR satellite will help enhance our prediction models with high-quality data; it has real time space weather data available through the NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center as of July, 2016. We are in the process of transitioning our forecast operations to include data from DSCOVR while running the original ACE data stream in parallel until it lasts. This paper will compare and contrast the forecasted values from the two satellites. Finally, we will discuss our efforts in providing the forecast products for the Rice space weather website that will be a part of the book on "Machine Learning Techniques for Space Weather" to be published by Elsiever.

KSC-2015-1296

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-02-07

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Tom Berger, director of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, prepares to brief media on preparations for the liftoff of NOAA’s Deep Space Climate Observatory spacecraft, or DSCOVR. DSCOVR will launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. The mission is a partnership between NOAA, NASA and the U.S. Air Force. DSCOVR will maintain the nation's real-time solar wind monitoring capabilities which are critical to the accuracy and lead time of NOAA's space weather alerts and forecasts. To learn more about DSCOVR, visit http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/DSCOVR. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossman

Space Weather, Geomagnetic Disturbances and Impact on the High-Voltage Transmission Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pullkkinen, A.

2011-01-01

Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) affecting the performance of high-voltage power transmission systems are one of the most significant hazards space weather poses on the operability of critical US infrastructure. The severity of the threat was emphasized, for example, in two recent reports: the National Research Council (NRC) report "Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report" and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) report "HighImpact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System." The NRC and NERC reports demonstrated the important national security dimension of space weather and GIC and called for comprehensive actions to forecast and mitigate the hazard. In this paper we will give a brief overview of space weather storms and accompanying geomagnetic storm events that lead to GIC. We will also review the fundamental principles of how GIC can impact the power transmission systems. Space weather has been a subject of great scientific advances that have changed the wonder of the past to a quantitative field of physics with true predictive power of today. NASA's Solar Shield system aimed at forecasting of GIC in the North American high-voltage power transmission system can be considered as one of the ultimate fruits of those advances. We will review the fundamental principles of the Solar Shield system and provide our view of the way forward in the science of GIC.

Transforming the "Valley of Death" into a "Valley of Opportunity"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary J.; Merceret, Francis J.; O'Brien, T. P.; Roeder, William P.; Huddleston, Lisa L.; Bauman, William H., III

2014-01-01

Transitioning technology from research to operations (23 R2O) is difficult. The problem's importance is exemplified in the literature and in every failed attempt to do so. Although the R2O gap is often called the "valley of death", a recent a Space Weather editorial called it a "Valley of Opportunity". There are significant opportunities for space weather organizations to learn from the terrestrial experience. Dedicated R2O organizations like those of the various NOAA testbeds and collaborative "proving ground" projects take common approaches to improving terrestrial weather forecasting through the early transition of research capabilities into the operational environment. Here we present experience-proven principles for the establishment and operation of similar space weather organizations, public or private. These principles were developed and currently being demonstrated by NASA at the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center. The AMU was established in 1991 jointly by NASA, the U.S. Air Force (USAF) and the National Weather Service (NWS) to provide tools and techniques for improving weather support to the Space Shuttle Program (Madura et al., 2011). The primary customers were the USAF 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG who provided the weather observing and forecast support for Shuttle operations). SPoRT was established in 2002 to transition NASA satellite and remote-sensing technology to the NWS. The continuing success of these organizations suggests the common principles guiding them may be valuable for similar endeavors in the space weather arena.

HF-START: A Regional Radio Propagation Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hozumi, K.; Maruyama, T.; Saito, S.; Nakata, H.; Rougerie, S.; Yokoyama, T.; Jin, H.; Tsugawa, T.; Ishii, M.

2017-12-01

HF-START (HF Simulator Targeting for All-users' Regional Telecommunications) is a user-friendly simulator developed to meet the needs of space weather users. Prediction of communications failure due to space weather disturbances is of high priority. Space weather users from various backgrounds with high economic impact, i.e. airlines, telecommunication companies, GPS-related companies, insurance companies, international amateur radio union, etc., recently increase. Space weather information provided by Space Weather Information Center of NICT is, however, too professional to be understood and effectively used by the users. To overcome this issue, I try to translate the research level data to the user level data based on users' needs and provide an immediate usable data. HF-START is positioned to be a space weather product out of laboratory based truly on users' needs. It is originally for radio waves in HF band (3-30 MHz) but higher frequencies up to L band are planned to be covered. Regional ionospheric data in Japan and southeast Asia are employed as a reflector of skywave mode propagation. GAIA (Ground-to-topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy) model will be used as ionospheric input for global simulation. To evaluate HF-START, an evaluation campaign for Japan region will be launched in coming months. If the campaign successes, it will be expanded to southeast Asia region as well. The final goal of HF-START is to provide the near-realtime necessary radio parameters as well as the warning message of radio communications failure to the radio and space weather users.

Activities of NICT space weather project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murata, Ken T.; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Ishii, Mamoru

NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar-wind, magnetosphere and ionosphere. The three simulations are directly or indirectly connected each other based on real-time observa-tion data to reproduce a virtual geo-space region on the super-computer. Informatics is a new methodology to make precise forecast of space weather. Based on new information and communication technologies (ICT), it provides more information in both quality and quantity. At NICT, we have been developing a cloud-computing system named "space weather cloud" based on a high-speed network system (JGN2+). Huge-scale distributed storage (1PB), clus-ter computers, visualization systems and other resources are expected to derive new findings and services of space weather forecasting. The final goal of NICT space weather service is to predict near-future space weather conditions and disturbances which will be causes of satellite malfunctions, tele-communication problems, and error of GPS navigations. In the present talk, we introduce our recent activities on the space weather services and discuss how we are going to develop the services from the view points of space science and practical uses.

Operational specification and forecasting advances for Dst, LEO thermospheric densities, and aviation radiation dose and dose rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W. Kent

Space weather’s effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun’s photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the magnetosphere, thermosphere, and even troposphere are key regions that are affected. Space Environment Technologies (SET) has developed and is producing innovative space weather applications. Key operational systems for providing timely information about the effects of space weather on these domains are SET’s Magnetosphere Alert and Prediction System (MAPS), LEO Alert and Prediction System (LAPS), and Automated Radiation Measurements for Aviation Safety (ARMAS) system. MAPS provides a forecast Dst index out to 6 days through the data-driven, redundant data stream Anemomilos algorithm. Anemomilos uses observational proxies for the magnitude, location, and velocity of solar ejecta events. This forecast index is used by satellite operations to characterize upcoming geomagnetic storms, for example. In addition, an ENLIL/Rice Dst prediction out to several days has also been developed and will be described. LAPS is the SET fully redundant operational system providing recent history, current epoch, and forecast solar and geomagnetic indices for use in operational versions of the JB2008 thermospheric density model. The thermospheric densities produced by that system, driven by the LAPS data, are forecast to 72-hours to provide the global mass densities for satellite operators. ARMAS is a project that has successfully demonstrated the operation of a micro dosimeter on aircraft to capture the real-time radiation environment due to Galactic Cosmic Rays and Solar Energetic Particles. The dose and dose-rates are captured on aircraft, downlinked in real-time via the Iridium satellites, processed on the ground, incorporated into the most recent NAIRAS global radiation climatology data runs, and made available to end users via the web and smart phone apps. ARMAS provides the “weather” of the radiation environment to improve air-crew and passenger safety. Many of the data products from MAPS, LAPS, and ARMAS are available on the SpaceWx smartphone app for iPhone, iPad, iPod, and Android professional users and public space weather education. We describe recent forecasting advances for moving the space weather information from these automated systems into operational, derivative products for communications, aviation, and satellite operations uses.

Operational Planetary Space Weather Services for the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

André, Nicolas; Grande, Manuel

2017-04-01

Under Horizon 2020, the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure (EPN2020-RI, http://www.europlanet-2020-ri.eu) includes an entirely new Virtual Access Service, "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) that will extend the concepts of space weather and space situational awareness to other planets in our Solar System and in particular to spacecraft that voyage through it. PSWS will provide at the end of 2017 12 services distributed over 4 different service domains - 1) Prediction, 2) Detection, 3) Modelling, 4) Alerts. These services include 1.1) A 1D MHD solar wind prediction tool, 1.2) Extensions of a Propagation Tool, 1.3) A meteor showers prediction tool, 1.4) A cometary tail crossing prediction tool, 2.1) Detection of lunar impacts, 2.2) Detection of giant planet fireballs, 2.3) Detection of cometary tail events, 3.1) A Transplanet model of magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling, 3.2) A model of the Mars radiation environment, 3.3.) A model of giant planet magnetodisc, 3.4) A model of Jupiter's thermosphere, 4) A VO-event based alert system. We will detail in the present paper some of these services with a particular emphasis on those already operational at the time of the presentation (1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 2.2, 3.1, 4). The proposed Planetary Space Weather Services will be accessible to the research community, amateur astronomers as well as to industrial partners planning for space missions dedicated in particular to the following key planetary environments: Mars, in support of ESA's ExoMars missions; comets, building on the success of the ESA Rosetta mission; and outer planets, in preparation for the ESA JUpiter ICy moon Explorer (JUICE). These services will also be augmented by the future Solar Orbiter and BepiColombo observations. This new facility will not only have an impact on planetary space missions but will also allow the hardness of spacecraft and their components to be evaluated under variety of known conditions, particularly radiation conditions, extending their knownflight-worthiness for terrestrial applications. Europlanet 2020 RI has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 654208.

The GOES-16 Energetic Heavy Ion Instrument Proton and Helium Fluxes for Space Weather Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Connell, J. J.; Lopate, C.

2017-12-01

The Energetic Heavy Ion Sensor (EHIS) was built by the University of New Hampshire, subcontracted to Assurance Technology Corporation, as part of the Space Environmental In-Situ Suite (SEISS) on the new GOES-16 satellite, in geostationary Earth orbit. The EHIS measures energetic ions in space over the range 10-200 MeV for protons, and energy ranges for heavy ions corresponding to the same stopping range. Though an operational satellite instrument, EHIS will supply high quality data for scientific studies. For the GOES Level 1-B and Level 2 data products, protons and helium are distinguished in the EHIS using discriminator trigger logic. Measurements are provided in five energy bands. The instrumental cadence of these rates is 3 seconds. However, the primary Level 1-B proton and helium data products are 1-minute and 5-minute averages. The data latency is 1 minute, so data products can be used for real-time predictions as well as general science studies. Protons and helium, comprising approximately 99% of all energetic ions in space are of great importance for Space Weather predictions. We discuss the preliminary EHIS proton and helium data results and their application to Space Weather. The EHIS instrument development project was funded by NASA under contract NNG06HX01C.

An Automated Solar Synoptic Analysis Software System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, S.; Lee, S.; Oh, S.; Kim, J.; Lee, J.; Kim, Y.; Lee, J.; Moon, Y.; Lee, D.

2012-12-01

We have developed an automated software system of identifying solar active regions, filament channels, and coronal holes, those are three major solar sources causing the space weather. Space weather forecasters of NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center produce the solar synoptic drawings as a daily basis to predict solar activities, i.e., solar flares, filament eruptions, high speed solar wind streams, and co-rotating interaction regions as well as their possible effects to the Earth. As an attempt to emulate this process with a fully automated and consistent way, we developed a software system named ASSA(Automated Solar Synoptic Analysis). When identifying solar active regions, ASSA uses high-resolution SDO HMI intensitygram and magnetogram as inputs and providing McIntosh classification and Mt. Wilson magnetic classification of each active region by applying appropriate image processing techniques such as thresholding, morphology extraction, and region growing. At the same time, it also extracts morphological and physical properties of active regions in a quantitative way for the short-term prediction of flares and CMEs. When identifying filament channels and coronal holes, images of global H-alpha network and SDO AIA 193 are used for morphological identification and also SDO HMI magnetograms for quantitative verification. The output results of ASSA are routinely checked and validated against NOAA's daily SRS(Solar Region Summary) and UCOHO(URSIgram code for coronal hole information). A couple of preliminary scientific results are to be presented using available output results. ASSA will be deployed at the Korean Space Weather Center and serve its customers in an operational status by the end of 2012.

Observations from Space and the Future of Meteorology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tepper, Morris

1974-01-01

Describes space-based observations and other aspects of meterology that will enable weather forecasters to lengthen the scale of predictability from the current day-to-day basis to one week or longer. (Author/GS)

Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Ames Code I Private Cloud Computing Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew; Case, Jonathan; Venner, Jason; Moreno-Madrinan, Max J.; Delgado, Francisco

2012-01-01

Two projects at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have collaborated to develop a high resolution weather forecast model for Mesoamerica: The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, which integrates unique NASA satellite and weather forecast modeling capabilities into the operational weather forecasting community. NASA's SERVIR Program, which integrates satellite observations, ground-based data, and forecast models to improve disaster response in Central America, the Caribbean, Africa, and the Himalayas.

Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manobianco, John T.; Taylor, Gregory E.; Case, Jonathan L.; Dianic, Allan V.; Wheeler, Mark W.; Zack, John W.; Nutter, Paul A.

2003-01-01

Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective (e.g., statistical) verification of point forecasts is a stringent measure of model performance, but when used alone, it is not usually sufficient for quantifying the value of the overall contribution of the model to the weather-forecasting process. This is especially true for mesoscale models with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution that may be capable of predicting meteorologically consistent, though not necessarily accurate, fine-scale weather phenomena. Therefore, subjective (phenomenological) evaluation, focusing on selected case studies and specific weather features, such as sea breezes and precipitation, has been performed to help quantify the added value that cannot be inferred solely from objective evaluation.

Nonlinear dynamics of the magnetosphere and space weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharma, A. Surjalal

1996-01-01

The solar wind-magnetosphere system exhibits coherence on the global scale and such behavior can arise from nonlinearity on the dynamics. The observational time series data were used together with phase space reconstruction techniques to analyze the magnetospheric dynamics. Analysis of the solar wind, auroral electrojet and Dst indices showed low dimensionality of the dynamics and accurate prediction can be made with an input/output model. The predictability of the magnetosphere in spite of the apparent complexity arises from its dynamical synchronism with the solar wind. The electrodynamic coupling between different regions of the magnetosphere yields its coherent, low dimensional behavior. The data from multiple satellites and ground stations can be used to develop a spatio-temporal model that identifies the coupling between different regions. These nonlinear dynamical models provide space weather forecasting capabilities.

GOES-R Space Weather Data: Products and Data Access

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilton, M.; Rowland, W. F.; Codrescu, S.; Denig, W. F.; Seaton, D. B.

2016-12-01

In November 2016 NOAA launched the first in the "R" series of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-R). GOES-R continues a tradition of almost 40 years of continuous space and solar observations at geostationary orbit. Compared to its predecessors, the GOES-R satellite provides improved in situ measurements of charged particle and magnetic field environments. The satellite also offers enhanced remote sensing of the sun through ultraviolet (UV) imagery and X-ray/UV irradiance. After the spacecraft completes early-orbit checkout and calibration, GOES-R space weather data and derived products will be used for operations within NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and publicly released through the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). This presentation will provide an overview of GOES-R space weather data ranging from direct measurements (L0 data) to higher level science (L2+) products developed by NCEI scientists. We will also present planned data access and distribution features. We emphasize our strategy to ensure data discoverability and accessibility, including our participation in NOAA's OneStop project and potential partnerships with NASA's Virtual Solar Observatory and projects like Helioviewer.

Sheath-accumulating Propagation of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Takahashi, Takuya; Shibata, Kazunari, E-mail: takahasi@kusastro.kyoto-u.ac.jp

Fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are the drivers of strong space weather storms such as solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms. The connection between the space-weather-impacting solar wind disturbances associated with fast ICMEs at Earth and the characteristics of causative energetic CMEs observed near the Sun is a key question in the study of space weather storms, as well as in the development of practical space weather prediction. Such shock-driving fast ICMEs usually expand at supersonic speeds during the propagation, resulting in the continuous accumulation of shocked sheath plasma ahead. In this paper, we propose a “sheath-accumulating propagation”more » (SAP) model that describes the coevolution of the interplanetary sheath and decelerating ICME ejecta by taking into account the process of upstream solar wind plasma accumulation within the sheath region. Based on the SAP model, we discuss (1) ICME deceleration characteristics; (2) the fundamental condition for fast ICMEs at Earth; (3) the thickness of interplanetary sheaths; (4) arrival time prediction; and (5) the super-intense geomagnetic storms associated with huge solar flares. We quantitatively show that not only the speed but also the mass of the CME are crucial for discussing the above five points. The similarities and differences between the SAP model, the drag-based model, and the“snow-plow” model proposed by Tappin are also discussed.« less

Space weathering trends on carbonaceous asteroids: A possible explanation for Bennu's blue slope?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lantz, C.; Binzel, R. P.; DeMeo, F. E.

2018-03-01

We compare primitive near-Earth asteroid spectral properties to the irradiated carbonaceous chondrite samples of Lantz et al. (2017) in order to assess how space weathering processes might influence taxonomic classification. Using the same eigenvectors from the asteroid taxonomy by DeMeo et al. (2009), we calculate the principal components for fresh and irradiated meteorites and find that change in spectral slope (blueing or reddening) causes a corresponding shift in the two first principal components along the same line that the C- and X-complexes track. Using a sample of B-, C-, X-, and D-type NEOs with visible and near-infrared spectral data, we further investigated the correlation between prinicipal components and the spectral curvature for the primitive asteroids. We find that space weathering effects are not just slope and albedo, but also include spectral curvature. We show how, through space weathering, surfaces having an original "C-type" reflectance can thus turn into a redder P-type or a bluer B-type, and that space weathering can also decrease (and disguise) the D-type population. Finally we take a look at the case of OSIRIS-REx target (101955) Bennu and propose an explanation for the blue and possibly red spectra that were previously observed on different locations of its surface: parts of Bennu's surface could have become blue due to space weathering, while fresher areas are redder. No clear prediction can be made on Hayabusa-2 target (162173) Ryugu.

Design of a Controllable Weather Balloon to Fly on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivie, Benjamin

As the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) moves closer towards placing humans on Mars, prediction of the weather on the planet becomes more vital to ensure the safety of the astronauts. Currently on Mars NASA has land based weather stations on the rovers and a few satellites orbiting the planet that help to predict the weather. They also use Earth based telescopes to look at the Martian atmosphere similar to what an orbiting satellite would [1]. These resources provide information about what the weather is like on the surface and what the weather looks like from space but there is little information from inside the atmosphere. Having a device that can fly through the atmosphere and collect data would enable scientists to generate more accurate models of the weather on Mars. Another use for these devices could be to get aerial photographs of the planet, which could help to determine possible sites for future exploration. Also the Martian air could be collected and analyzed to determine its composition and whether there could be any airborne signs of life. The research presented in this thesis is a first step towards designing a device to fly on Mars and take weather data. A lifting type is selected and through test flights on Earth the design is modified until a workable platform for flight testing is achieved. Once it is determined, the design is scaled to be able to fly in the Martian atmosphere.

Tethered Satellites as an Enabling Platform for Operational Space Weather Monitoring Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilchrist, Brian E.; Krause, Linda Habash; Gallagher, Dennis Lee; Bilen, Sven Gunnar; Fuhrhop, Keith; Hoegy, Walt R.; Inderesan, Rohini; Johnson, Charles; Owens, Jerry Keith; Powers, Joseph;

Improved Orbit Determination and Forecasts with an Assimilative Tool for Satellite Drag Specification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilinski, M.; Crowley, G.; Sutton, E.; Codrescu, M.

2016-09-01

Much as aircraft are affected by the prevailing winds and weather conditions in which they fly, satellites are affected by the variability in density and motion of the near earth space environment. Drastic changes in the neutral density of the thermosphere, caused by geomagnetic storms or other phenomena, result in perturbations of LEO satellite motions through drag on the satellite surfaces. This can lead to difficulties in locating important satellites, temporarily losing track of satellites, and errors when predicting collisions in space. As the population of satellites in Earth orbit grows, higher space-weather prediction accuracy is required for critical missions, such as accurate catalog maintenance, collision avoidance for manned and unmanned space flight, reentry prediction, satellite lifetime prediction, defining on-board fuel requirements, and satellite attitude dynamics. We describe ongoing work to build a comprehensive nowcast and forecast system for specifying the neutral atmospheric state related to orbital drag conditions. The system outputs include neutral density, winds, temperature, composition, and the satellite drag derived from these parameters. This modeling tool is based on several state-of-the-art coupled models of the thermosphere-ionosphere as well as several empirical models running in real-time and uses assimilative techniques to produce a thermospheric nowcast. This software will also produce 72 hour predictions of the global thermosphere-ionosphere system using the nowcast as the initial condition and using near real-time and predicted space weather data and indices as the inputs. In this paper, we will review the driving requirements for our model, summarize the model design and assimilative architecture, and present preliminary validation results. Validation results will be presented in the context of satellite orbit errors and compared with several leading atmospheric models. As part of the analysis, we compare the drag observed by a variety of satellites which were not used as part of the assimilation-dataset and whose perigee altitudes span a range from 200 km to 700 km.

The New Era in Operational Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Carlson, H. C.; Gardner, L. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Eccles, J. V.; Rice, D. D.; Bouwer, D.; Bailey, J. J.; Knipp, D. J.; Blake, J. B.; Rex, J.; Fuschino, R.; Mertens, C. J.; Gersey, B.; Wilkins, R.; Atwell, W.

2012-12-01

Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere, thermosphere, and even troposphere are key regions that are affected. The Utah State University (USU) Space Weather Center (SWC) and Space Environment Technologies (SET) are developing and producing commercial space weather applications. Key systems for providing timely information about the effects of space weather are SWC's Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system, SET's Magnetosphere Alert and Prediction System (MAPS), and SET's Automated Radiation Measurements for Aviation Safety (ARMAS) system. GAIM, operated by SWC, improves real-time communication and navigation systems by continuously ingesting up to 10,000 slant TEC measurements every 15-minutes from approximately 500 stations. Ionosonde data from several dozen global stations is ingested every 15 minutes to improve the vertical profiles within GAIM. These operational runs enable the reporting of global radio high frequency (HF) signal strengths and near vertical incidence skywave (NVIS) maps used by amateur radio operators and emergency responders via the http://q-upnow.com website. MAPS provides a forecast Dst index out to 6 days through the data-driven Anemomilos algorithm. Anemomilos uses observational proxies for the magnitude, location, and velocity of solar ejecta events. This forecast index is used by satellite operations to characterize upcoming geomagnetic storms, for example. ARMAS is demonstrating a prototype flight of microdosimeters on aircraft to capture the "weather" of the radiation environment for air-crew and passenger safety. It assimilates real-time radiation dose and dose rate data into the global NAIRAS radiation system to correct the global climatology for more accurate radiation fields along flight tracks. This team also provides the space weather smartphone app called SpaceWx for iPhone, iPad, iPod, and Android for professional users and public space weather education. SpaceWx displays the real-time solar, heliosphere, magnetosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere drivers to changes in the total electron content, for example, as well as global NVIS maps. We describe recent forecasting advances for moving space weather information through automated systems into operational, derivative products for communications, aviation, and satellite operations uses.

Using Geostationary Communications Satellites as a Sensor: Telemetry Search Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahoy, K.; Carlton, A.; Lohmeyer, W. Q.

2014-12-01

For decades, operators and manufacturers have collected large amounts of telemetry from geostationary (GEO) communications satellites to monitor system health and performance, yet this data is rarely mined for scientific purposes. The goal of this work is to mine data archives acquired from commercial operators using new algorithms that can detect when a space weather (or non-space weather) event of interest has occurred or is in progress. We have developed algorithms to statistically analyze power amplifier current and temperature telemetry and identify deviations from nominal operations or other trends of interest. We then examine space weather data to see what role, if any, it might have played. We also closely examine both long and short periods of time before an anomaly to determine whether or not the anomaly could have been predicted.

Working Group 5: Measurements technology and active experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whipple, E.; Barfield, J. N.; Faelthammar, C.-G.; Feynman, J.; Quinn, J. N.; Roberts, W.; Stone, N.; Taylor, W. L.

1986-01-01

Technology issues identified by working groups 5 are listed. (1) New instruments are needed to upgrade the ability to measure plasma properties in space. (2) Facilities should be developed for conducting a broad range of plasma experiments in space. (3) The ability to predict plasma weather within magnetospheres should be improved and a capability to modify plasma weather developed. (4) Methods of control of plasma spacecraft and spacecraft plasma interference should be upgraded. (5) The space station laboratory facilities should be designed with attention to problems of flexibility to allow for future growth. These issues are discussed.

KSC-IMG_6548re

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-03-04

Cape Canaveral AFS, Fla. - A United Launch Alliance Delta IV rocket sits poised on its launch pad with the NASA/NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite P (GOES P) at Space Launch Complex-37. GOES P will provide NOAA and NASA scientists with data to support weather, solar and space operations, and will enable future science improvements in weather prediction and remote sensing. Additionally, GOES-P will provide data on global climate changes and capability for search and rescue. Photo credit: Carleton Bailie, The Boeing Company

MESSENGER Observations of Extreme Space Weather in Mercury's Magnetosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slavin, J. A.

2013-09-01

Increasing activity on the Sun is allowing MESSENGER to make its first observations of Mercury's magnetosphere under extreme solar wind conditions. At Earth interplanetary shock waves and coronal mass ejections produce severe "space weather" in the form of large geomagnetic storms that affect telecommunications, space systems, and ground-based power grids. In the case of Mercury the primary effect of extreme space weather in on the degree to which this it's weak global magnetic field can shield the planet from the solar wind. Direct impact of the solar wind on the surface of airless bodies like Mercury results in space weathering of the regolith and the sputtering of atomic species like sodium and calcium to high altitudes where they contribute to a tenuous, but highly dynamic exosphere. MESSENGER observations indicate that during extreme interplanetary conditions the solar wind plasma gains access to the surface of Mercury through three main regions: 1. The magnetospheric cusps, which fill with energized solar wind and planetary ions; 2. The subsolar magnetopause, which is compressed and eroded by reconnection to very low altitudes where the natural gyro-motion of solar wind protons may result in their impact on the surface; 3. The magnetotail where hot plasma sheet ions rapidly convect sunward to impact the surface on the nightside of Mercury. The possible implications of these new MESSENGER observations for our ability to predict space weather at Earth and other planets will be described.

SEM and TEM Observation of the Surfaces of the Fine-Grained Particles Retrieved from the Muses-C Regio on the Asteroid 25413 Itokawa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noguchi, T.; Nakamura, T.; Zolensky, Michael E.; Tanaka, M.; Hashimoto, T.; Konno, M.; Nakato, A.; Ogami, T.; Fujimura, A.; Abe, M.;

Evaluation of Radiation Belt Space Weather Forecasts for Internal Charging Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minow, Joseph I.; Coffey, Victoria N.; Jun, Insoo; Garrett, Henry B.

2007-01-01

A variety of static electron radiation belt models, space weather prediction tools, and energetic electron datasets are used by spacecraft designers and operations support personnel as internal charging code inputs to evaluate electrostatic discharge risks in space systems due to exposure to relativistic electron environments. Evaluating the environment inputs is often accomplished by comparing whether the data set or forecast tool reliability predicts measured electron flux (or fluence over a given period) for some chosen period. While this technique is useful as a model metric, it does not provide the information necessary to evaluate whether short term deviances of the predicted flux is important in the charging evaluations. In this paper, we use a 1-D internal charging model to compute electric fields generated in insulating materials as a function of time when exposed to relativistic electrons in the Earth's magnetosphere. The resulting fields are assumed to represent the "true" electric fields and are compared with electric field values computed from relativistic electron environments derived from a variety of space environment and forecast tools. Deviances in predicted fields compared to the "true" fields which depend on insulator charging time constants will be evaluated as a potential metric for determining the importance of predicted and measured relativistic electron flux deviations over a range of time scales.

Real-time SWMF-Geospace at CCMC: assessing the quality of output from continuous operational simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liemohn, M. W.; Welling, D. T.; De Zeeuw, D.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Ganushkina, N. Y.; Ilie, R.; Toth, G.; Gombosi, T. I.; van der Holst, B.

2016-12-01

The ground-based magnetometer index Dst is a decent measure of the near-Earth current systems, in particular those in the storm-time inner magnetosphere. The ability of a large-scale, physics-based model to reproduce, or even predict, this index is therefore a tangible measure of the overall validity of the code for space weather research and space weather operational usage. Experimental real-time simulations of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) are conducted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), with results available there (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime.php), through the CCMC Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) site (http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/), and the Michigan SWMF site (http://csem.engin.umich.edu/realtime). Presently, two configurations of the SWMF are running in real time at CCMC, both focusing on the geospace modules, using the BATS-R-US magnetohydrodynamic model, the Ridley Ionosphere Model, and with and without the Rice Convection Model for inner magnetospheric drift physics. While both have been running for several years, nearly continuous results are available since July 2015. Dst from the model output is compared against the Kyoto real-time Dst. Various quantitative measures are presented to assess the goodness of fit between the models and observations. In particular, correlation coefficients, RMSE and prediction efficiency are calculated and discussed. In addition, contingency tables are presented, demonstrating the ability of the model to predict "disturbed times" as defined by Dst values below some critical threshold. It is shown that the SWMF run with the inner magnetosphere model is significantly better at reproducing storm-time values, with prediction efficiencies above 0.25 and Heidke skill scores above 0.5. This work was funded by NASA and NSF grants, and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 637302 PROGRESS.

Approach to Integrate Global-Sun Models of Magnetic Flux Emergence and Transport for Space Weather Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mansour, Nagi N.; Wray, Alan A.; Mehrotra, Piyush; Henney, Carl; Arge, Nick; Godinez, H.; Manchester, Ward; Koller, J.; Kosovichev, A.; Scherrer, P.;

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

Science.gov Websites

Tropical Marine Fire Weather Forecast Maps Unified Surface Analysis Climate Climate Prediction Climate forecasts of hazardous flight conditions at all levels within domestic and international air space. Climate Prediction Center monitors and forecasts short-term climate fluctuations and provides information on the

Space weather at planet Venus during the forthcoming BepiColombo flybys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna-Lawlor, S.; Jackson, B.; Odstrcil, D.

2018-03-01

The BepiColombo (BC) Mission which will be launched in 2018, will include during its Cruise Phase two flybys of Venus and five Mercury flybys. It will then enter a one Earth year orbit about Mercury (with a possible one-year extension) during which two spacecraft, one provided by ESA (MPO) and one provided by JAXA (MMO), will perform both autonomous and coordinated observations of the Hermean environment at various separations. The measurements will take place during the minimum of solar cycle 24 and the rise of solar cycle 25. At the start of the minimum of solar cycle 23, four major flares, each associated with the production of MeV particle radiation and CME activity occurred. Predictions of the HAFv.2 model of the arrival of particle radiation and a travelling shock at Venus on 6 December 2006 were verified by in-situ measurements made aboard Venus Express (VEX) by the ASPERA 4 instrument. Interplanetary scintillation observations, as well as the ENLIL 3-D MHD model when employed separately or in combination, enable the making of predictions of the solar wind density and speed at various locations in the inner heliosphere. Both methods, which outdate HAFv.2, are utilized in the present paper to predict (retrospectively) the arrival of the flare related, interplanetary propagating shock recorded at Venus on 6 December 2006 aboard VEX with a view to putting in place the facility to make very reliable space weather predictions for BC during both its Cruise Phase and when in the Hermean environment itself. The successful matching of the December 2006 predictions with in-situ signatures recorded aboard Venus Express provide confidence that the predictive methodology to be adopted will be appropriate to provide space weather predictions for BepiColombo during its Venus flybys and throughout the mission.

Application of Markov chain theory to ASTP natural environment launch criteria at Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graves, M. E.; Perlmutter, M.

1974-01-01

To aid the planning of the Apollo Soyuz Test Program (ASTP), certain natural environment statistical relationships are presented, based on Markov theory and empirical counts. The practical results are in terms of conditional probability of favorable and unfavorable launch conditions at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). They are based upon 15 years of recorded weather data which are analyzed under a set of natural environmental launch constraints. Three specific forecasting problems were treated: (1) the length of record of past weather which is useful to a prediction; (2) the effect of persistence in runs of favorable and unfavorable conditions; and (3) the forecasting of future weather in probabilistic terms.

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, George Morrow, deputy director of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, speaks to members of the media at a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

NASA Aircraft Vortex Spacing System Development Status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinton, David A.; Charnock, James K.; Bagwell, Donald R.; Grigsby, Donner

1999-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is addressing airport capacity enhancements during instrument meteorological conditions through the Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) program. Within TAP, the Reduced Spacing Operations (RSO) subelement at the NASA Langley Research Center is developing an Aircraft VOrtex Spacing System (AVOSS). AVOSS will integrate the output of several systems to produce weather dependent, dynamic wake vortex spacing criteria. These systems provide current and predicted weather conditions, models of wake vortex transport and decay in these weather conditions, and real-time feedback of wake vortex behavior from sensors. The goal of the NASA program is to provide the research and development to demonstrate an engineering model AVOSS in real-time operation at a major airport. The demonstration is only of concept feasibility, and additional effort is required to deploy an operational system for actual aircraft spacing reduction. This paper describes the AVOSS system architecture, a wake vortex facility established at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW), initial operational experience with the AVOSS system, and emerging considerations for subsystem requirements. Results of the initial system operation suggest a significant potential for reduced spacing.

Space-weathering processes and products on volatile-rich asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Britt, D.; Schelling, P.; Consolmagno, G.; Bradley, T.

2014-07-01

Space weathering is a generic term for the effects on atmosphereless solid bodies in the solar system from a range of processes associated with direct exposure to the space environment. These include impact processes (shock, vaporization, fragmentation, heating, melting, and ejecta formation), radiation damage (from galactic and solar cosmic rays), solar-wind effects (irradiation, ion implantation, and sputtering), and the chemical reactions driven by these processes. The classic example of space weathering is the formation of the lunar spectral red slope associated with the production of nanophase Fe (npFe0) in the dusty lunar regolith (C.R. Chapman, 2004, Annual Review of Earth & Planet. Sci. 32, C.M. Pieters, 2000, MAPS 35). Similar npFe0 has been recovered from asteroid (25143) Itokawa and some asteroid classes do exhibit modest spectral red slopes (T. Noguchi, 2011, Science 333). Space weathering can be thought of as driven by a combination of the chemical environment of space (hard vacuum, low oxygen fugacity, solar-wind implantation of hydrogen) along with thermal energy supplied by micrometeorite impacts. The forward modeling of space weathering as thermodynamically-driven decomposition of common rock-forming minerals suggests the production of a range of daughter products: (1) The silicate products typically lose oxygen, other volatile elements (i.e., sulfur and sodium), and metallic cations, producing minerals that are typically more disordered and less optically active than the original parent materials. (2) The decomposed metallic cations form in nano-sized blebs including npFe0, on the surfaces or in condensing rims of mineral grains. This creates a powerful optical component as seen in the lunar red slope. Surfaces with exposed npFe0 are an ideal environment for catalyzing further reactions. (3) The liberated volatile elements and gases (O, S, Na) may form an observable exosphere (e.g., Moon and Mercury) and can either escape from the body or recombine with available solar-wind-implanted hydrogen to form trace amounts of water and OH. Mineral decomposition can be thought of as the first stage of space weathering. It produces weathered surfaces somewhat depleted in volatile elements, creates a predictable set of minor or trace minerals, and leaves the surfaces with catalytic species, primarily npFe0. However, a second stage of further reactions and weathering depends upon the presence of ''feed-stock'' components that can participate in catalyzed chemical reactions on exposed surfaces. For volatile-rich small bodies, the available materials are not only silicates, but a volatile feedstock that can include water, carbon monoxide, ammonia, to name a few. Thermodynamically-driven decomposition of silicates will produce trace amounts of npFe0 which are ideal sites for Fischer-Tropsch type (FTT) catalytic reactions that can produce organics in situ on the asteroids including alkanes, polyaromatic hydrocarbons, and amino acids (J.E. Elsila, 2012, MAPS 47). The mix and range of products depends on the composition and morphology of the mineral surface, energy inputs produced by the micrometeorite impacts or other processes, and the composition of the input volatile feedstock. FFT reactions generate long-chain carbon compounds and amino acids. Secondary reactions that generate more complex carbon compounds and amino acids are likely to occur as the organic material matures. Weathering maturity can be thought of as a function of the abundance and diversity of the weathering products. Since the npFe0 is not destroyed in the reaction, continued micrometeorite bombardment would result in continuing processing and recombination of the existing organic feedstock. More weathering would result in progressively longer-chain carbon compounds as well as more complex and diverse amino acids, and eventually the kerogen-like insoluble-organic matter that forms a large fraction of carbonaceous meteorites. This insight has several major implications for our planetary science and, potentially, the formation of the precursors of life. First, the range of weathering products seen in remotely-sensed data, meteorites, and returned samples are not random, but the predictable outcome of the source region's mineral kinetics and chemical feedstock. Weathering products do not have to be optically active like the npFe0 that produces the lunar red slope; on the contrary, probably most weathering products are spectrally neutral or even suppress an object's near-IR reflectance spectrum. In the case of volatile-rich parent bodies, a major weathering product is a range of carbon-rich compounds. But an additional result of considerable interest is the generation of pre-biotic compounds as a routine and predictable byproduct of common space-weathering processes. Any atmosphereless body around any star with mafic silicate mineral compositions and volatile feedstocks should create amino acids as a standard byproduct of space weathering. The precursors of life are probably abundant in any space-weathered asteroid belt, in any solar system, and only wait being accreted to a hospitable environment.

One-month validation of the Space Weather Modeling Framework geospace model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haiducek, J. D.; Welling, D. T.; Ganushkina, N. Y.; Morley, S.; Ozturk, D. S.

2017-12-01

The Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) geospace model consists of a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation coupled to an inner magnetosphere model and an ionosphere model. This provides a predictive capability for magnetopsheric dynamics, including ground-based and space-based magnetic fields, geomagnetic indices, currents and densities throughout the magnetosphere, cross-polar cap potential, and magnetopause and bow shock locations. The only inputs are solar wind parameters and F10.7 radio flux. We have conducted a rigorous validation effort consisting of a continuous simulation covering the month of January, 2005 using three different model configurations. This provides a relatively large dataset for assessment of the model's predictive capabilities. We find that the model does an excellent job of predicting the Sym-H index, and performs well at predicting Kp and CPCP during active times. Dayside magnetopause and bow shock positions are also well predicted. The model tends to over-predict Kp and CPCP during quiet times and under-predicts the magnitude of AL during disturbances. The model under-predicts the magnitude of night-side geosynchronous Bz, and over-predicts the radial distance to the flank magnetopause and bow shock. This suggests that the model over-predicts stretching of the magnetotail and the overall size of the magnetotail. With the exception of the AL index and the nightside geosynchronous magnetic field, we find the results to be insensitive to grid resolution.

GOES-S Liftoff

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-03-01

A United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station carrying the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. Liftoff was at 5:02 p.m. EST. GOES-S is the second satellite in a series of next-generation weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting.

Quantifying the daily economic impact of extreme space weather due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oughton, Edward J.; Skelton, Andrew; Horne, Richard B.; Thomson, Alan W. P.; Gaunt, Charles T.

2017-01-01

Extreme space weather due to coronal mass ejections has the potential to cause considerable disruption to the global economy by damaging the transformers required to operate electricity transmission infrastructure. However, expert opinion is split between the potential outcome being one of a temporary regional blackout and of a more prolonged event. The temporary blackout scenario proposed by some is expected to last the length of the disturbance, with normal operations resuming after a couple of days. On the other hand, others have predicted widespread equipment damage with blackout scenarios lasting months. In this paper we explore the potential costs associated with failure in the electricity transmission infrastructure in the U.S. due to extreme space weather, focusing on daily economic loss. This provides insight into the direct and indirect economic consequences of how an extreme space weather event may affect domestic production, as well as other nations, via supply chain linkages. By exploring the sensitivity of the blackout zone, we show that on average the direct economic cost incurred from disruption to electricity represents only 49% of the total potential macroeconomic cost. Therefore, if indirect supply chain costs are not considered when undertaking cost-benefit analysis of space weather forecasting and mitigation investment, the total potential macroeconomic cost is not correctly represented. The paper contributes to our understanding of the economic impact of space weather, as well as making a number of key methodological contributions relevant for future work. Further economic impact assessment of this threat must consider multiday, multiregional events.

Assessment of Predictive Capabilities of L1 Orbiters using Realtime Solar Wind Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, J.; Kasper, J. C.; Welling, D. T.

2017-12-01

Realtime measurements of solar wind conditions at L1 point allow us to predict geomagnetic activity at Earth up to an hour in advance. These predictions are quantified in the form of geomagnetic indices such as Kp and Ap, allowing for a concise, standardized prediction and measurement system. For years, the Space Weather Prediction Center used ACE realtime solar wind data to develop its one and four-hour Kp forecasts, but has in the past year switched to using DSCOVR data as its source. In this study, the performance of both orbiters in predicting Kp over the course of one month was assessed in an attempt to determine whether or not switching to DSCOVR data has resulted in improved forecasts. The period of study was chosen to encompass a time when the satellites were close to each other, and when moderate to high activity was observed. Kp predictions were made using the Geospace Model, part of the Space Weather Modeling Framework, to simulate conditions based on observed solar wind parameters. The performance of each satellite was assessed by comparing the model output to observed data.

Cloud-Based Numerical Weather Prediction for Near Real-Time Forecasting and Disaster Response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew; Case, Jonathan; Venners, Jason; Schroeder, Richard; Checchi, Milton; Zavodsky, Bradley; Limaye, Ashutosh; O'Brien, Raymond

2015-01-01

The use of cloud computing resources continues to grow within the public and private sector components of the weather enterprise as users become more familiar with cloud-computing concepts, and competition among service providers continues to reduce costs and other barriers to entry. Cloud resources can also provide capabilities similar to high-performance computing environments, supporting multi-node systems required for near real-time, regional weather predictions. Referred to as "Infrastructure as a Service", or IaaS, the use of cloud-based computing hardware in an on-demand payment system allows for rapid deployment of a modeling system in environments lacking access to a large, supercomputing infrastructure. Use of IaaS capabilities to support regional weather prediction may be of particular interest to developing countries that have not yet established large supercomputing resources, but would otherwise benefit from a regional weather forecasting capability. Recently, collaborators from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center have developed a scripted, on-demand capability for launching the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center (STRC) Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which includes pre-compiled binaries of the latest version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF-EMS provides scripting for downloading appropriate initial and boundary conditions from global models, along with higher-resolution vegetation, land surface, and sea surface temperature data sets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center. This presentation will provide an overview of the modeling system capabilities and benchmarks performed on the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) environment. In addition, the presentation will discuss future opportunities to deploy the system in support of weather prediction in developing countries supported by NASA's SERVIR Project, which provides capacity building activities in environmental monitoring and prediction across a growing number of regional hubs throughout the world. Capacity-building applications that extend numerical weather prediction to developing countries are intended to provide near real-time applications to benefit public health, safety, and economic interests, but may have a greater impact during disaster events by providing a source for local predictions of weather-related hazards, or impacts that local weather events may have during the recovery phase.

Proposed Use of the NASA Ames Nebula Cloud Computing Platform for Numerical Weather Prediction and the Distribution of High Resolution Satellite Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Limaye, Ashutosh S.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Srikishen, Jayanthi

2010-01-01

The development of the Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at NASA Ames Research Center provides an open-source solution for the deployment of scalable computing and storage capabilities relevant to the execution of real-time weather forecasts and the distribution of high resolution satellite data to the operational weather community. Two projects at Marshall Space Flight Center may benefit from use of the Nebula system. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center facilitates the use of unique NASA satellite data and research capabilities in the operational weather community by providing datasets relevant to numerical weather prediction, and satellite data sets useful in weather analysis. SERVIR provides satellite data products for decision support, emphasizing environmental threats such as wildfires, floods, landslides, and other hazards, with interests in numerical weather prediction in support of disaster response. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model Environmental Modeling System (WRF-EMS) has been configured for Nebula cloud computing use via the creation of a disk image and deployment of repeated instances. Given the available infrastructure within Nebula and the "infrastructure as a service" concept, the system appears well-suited for the rapid deployment of additional forecast models over different domains, in response to real-time research applications or disaster response. Future investigations into Nebula capabilities will focus on the development of a web mapping server and load balancing configuration to support the distribution of high resolution satellite data sets to users within the National Weather Service and international partners of SERVIR.

The utility of polarized heliospheric imaging for space weather monitoring.

PubMed

DeForest, C E; Howard, T A; Webb, D F; Davies, J A

2016-01-01

A polarizing heliospheric imager is a critical next generation tool for space weather monitoring and prediction. Heliospheric imagers can track coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they cross the solar system, using sunlight scattered by electrons in the CME. This tracking has been demonstrated to improve the forecasting of impact probability and arrival time for Earth-directed CMEs. Polarized imaging allows locating CMEs in three dimensions from a single vantage point. Recent advances in heliospheric imaging have demonstrated that a polarized imager is feasible with current component technology.Developing this technology to a high technology readiness level is critical for space weather relevant imaging from either a near-Earth or deep-space mission. In this primarily technical review, we developpreliminary hardware requirements for a space weather polarizing heliospheric imager system and outline possible ways to flight qualify and ultimately deploy the technology operationally on upcoming specific missions. We consider deployment as an instrument on NOAA's Deep Space Climate Observatory follow-on near the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point, as a stand-alone constellation of smallsats in low Earth orbit, or as an instrument located at the Sun-Earth L5 Lagrange point. The critical first step is the demonstration of the technology, in either a science or prototype operational mission context.

Harnessing Orbital Debris to Sense the Space Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutschler, S.; Axelrad, P.; Matsuo, T.

A key requirement for accurate space situational awareness (SSA) is knowledge of the non-conservative forces that act on space objects. These effects vary temporally and spatially, driven by the dynamical behavior of space weather. Existing SSA algorithms adjust space weather models based on observations of calibration satellites. However, lack of sufficient data and mismodeling of non-conservative forces cause inaccuracies in space object motion prediction. The uncontrolled nature of debris makes it particularly sensitive to the variations in space weather. Our research takes advantage of this behavior by inverting observations of debris objects to infer the space environment parameters causing their motion. In addition, this research will produce more accurate predictions of the motion of debris objects. The hypothesis of this research is that it is possible to utilize a "cluster" of debris objects, objects within relatively close proximity of each other, to sense their local environment. We focus on deriving parameters of an atmospheric density model to more precisely predict the drag force on LEO objects. An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used for assimilation; the prior ensemble to the posterior ensemble is transformed during the measurement update in a manner that does not require inversion of large matrices. A prior ensemble is utilized to empirically determine the nonlinear relationship between measurements and density parameters. The filter estimates an extended state that includes position and velocity of the debris object, and atmospheric density parameters. The density is parameterized as a grid of values, distributed by latitude and local sidereal time over a spherical shell encompassing Earth. This research focuses on LEO object motion, but it can also be extended to additional orbital regimes for observation and refinement of magnetic field and solar radiation models. An observability analysis of the proposed approach is presented in terms of the measurement cadence necessary to estimate the local space environment.

A Comparison of Science and Technology Funding for DoD’s Space and Nonspace Programs

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-15

Artificial intelligence for HAARP Multispectral signature libraries Environmental conditions that Ionospheric prediction HAARP Weather software for...Hardware and software for solar HAARP Electromagnetic interference for Plasma theory in the space Subproject details were not available Subproject

Nanosatellite standardization and modularization as an asset to space weather measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voss, D.; Carssow, D.; Fritz, T. A.; Voss, H. D.

2009-12-01

The continuity of measurements from satellites in the Magnetosphere and Ionosphere is essential for the space weather community as pointed out by the US National Space Weather Program. Challenges to space budgets and the growing dependence upon space weather prediction have opened the door for extremely small satellites to play a large role in making these measurements. Standardization allows for modularity and the ability to lower satellite cost by reusing instrumentation and satellite systems without redesigning interfaces. Use of nanosatellites gives a designer the freedom to depart from the customary larger satellite design by deploying standardized interfaces throughout the spacecraft bus. Examples from the Boston University Student Satellite for Application and Training (BUSAT), the Thunderstorms and Effects Scientific and Technology nanosatellite (TEST), and the Loss Cone Imaging Instrument (LCI) will be provided. BUSAT is a five instrument nanosatellite with a nine pixel Imaging Electron Spectrometer, a Magnetometer, an Auroral Imager, a Very Low Frequency receiver, and a Langmuir Plasma Probe. Its purpose is to further the understanding of the coupling between energetic particles originating in the magnetosphere and their subsequent effects on the Ionosphere. In addition to their space weather science objective, BUSAT’s subsystems are based on the Cubesat concept and have been standardized, enabling them to be stacked in any orientation. Subsystems are not limited in size to the basic 1U cube, but are able to be any multiple of that size in any direction.

KSC-20180301-VP-CDC01_0001-GOES_S_Launch_Commentary-3182524

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-03-01

A United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station carrying the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. Liftoff was at 5:02 p.m. EST. GOES-S is the second satellite in a series of next-generation weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting.

The NASA Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (NASA STORM) Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Gatlin, Patrick N.; Lang, Timothy J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Bailey, Jeffrey; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2016-01-01

The NASA Severe Storm Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling(NASA STORM) project enhanced NASA’s severe weather research capabilities, building upon existing Earth Science expertise at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). During this project, MSFC extended NASA’s ground-based lightning detection capacity to include a readily deployable lightning mapping array (LMA). NASA STORM also enabled NASA’s Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) to add convection allowing ensemble modeling to its portfolio of regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) capabilities. As a part of NASA STORM, MSFC developed new open-source capabilities for analyzing and displaying weather radar observations integrated from both research and operational networks. These accomplishments enabled by NASA STORM are a step towards enhancing NASA’s capabilities for studying severe weather and positions them for any future NASA related severe storm field campaigns.

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Bauman, William H., III

2008-01-01

NASA prefers to land the space shuttle at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). When weather conditions violate Flight Rules at KSC, NASA will usually divert the shuttle landing to Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in Southern California. But forecasting surface winds at EAFB is a challenge for the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) forecasters due to the complex terrain that surrounds EAFB, One particular phenomena identified by SMG is that makes it difficult to forecast the EAFB surface winds is called "wind cycling". This occurs when wind speeds and directions oscillate among towers near the EAFB runway leading to a challenging deorbit bum forecast for shuttle landings. The large-scale numerical weather prediction models cannot properly resolve the wind field due to their coarse horizontal resolutions, so a properly tuned high-resolution mesoscale model is needed. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model meets this requirement. The AMU assessed the different WRF model options to determine which configuration best predicted surface wind speed and direction at EAFB, To do so, the AMU compared the WRF model performance using two hot start initializations with the Advanced Research WRF and Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical cores and compared model performance while varying the physics options.

Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podladchikova, Tatiana; Petrukovich, Anatoly; Yermolaev, Yuri

2018-04-01

Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study, we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011-2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by Dst index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliability of real-time input data in comparison with the final values, available in archives. In real-time operation 87% of storms were correctly predicted while the reanalysis running on final OMNI data predicts successfully 97% of storms. Thus the main reasons for prediction errors are discrepancies between real-time and final data (Dst, solar wind and IMF) due to processing errors, specifics of datasets.

The STEREO Mission: A New Approach to Space Weather Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaiser, michael L.

2006-01-01

With the launch of the twin STEREO spacecraft in July 2006, a new capability will exist for both real-time space weather predictions and for advances in space weather research. Whereas previous spacecraft monitors of the sun such as ACE and SOH0 have been essentially on the sun-Earth line, the STEREO spacecraft will be in 1 AU orbits around the sun on either side of Earth and will be viewing the solar activity from distinctly different vantage points. As seen from the sun, the two spacecraft will separate at a rate of 45 degrees per year, with Earth bisecting the angle. The instrument complement on the two spacecraft will consist of a package of optical instruments capable of imaging the sun in the visible and ultraviolet from essentially the surface to 1 AU and beyond, a radio burst receiver capable of tracking solar eruptive events from an altitude of 2-3 Rs to 1 AU, and a comprehensive set of fields and particles instruments capable of measuring in situ solar events such as interplanetary magnetic clouds. In addition to normal daily recorded data transmissions, each spacecraft is equipped with a real-time beacon that will provide 1 to 5 minute snapshots or averages of the data from the various instruments. This beacon data will be received by NOAA and NASA tracking stations and then relayed to the STEREO Science Center located at Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland where the data will be processed and made available within a goal of 5 minutes of receipt on the ground. With STEREO's instrumentation and unique view geometry, we believe considerable improvement can be made in space weather prediction capability as well as improved understanding of the three dimensional structure of solar transient events.

Space Weather Effects on Spacecraft Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Janet L.

2003-01-01

Space-based systems are developing into critical infrastructure required to support the quality of life on Earth. Hence, spacecraft reliability is a serious issue that is complicated by exposure to the space environment. Complex mission designs along with rapidly evolving technologies have outpaced efforts to accommodate detrimental space environment impacts on systems. Hazardous space environments, the effects on systems, and the accommodation of the effects are described with a focus on the need to predict space environments.

Assimilating every-30-second 100-m-mesh radar observations for convective weather: implications to non-Gaussian PDF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyoshi, T.; Teramura, T.; Ruiz, J.; Kondo, K.; Lien, G. Y.

2016-12-01

Convective weather is known to be highly nonlinear and chaotic, and it is hard to predict their location and timing precisely. Our Big Data Assimilation (BDA) effort has been exploring to use dense and frequent observations to avoid non-Gaussian probability density function (PDF) and to apply an ensemble Kalman filter under the Gaussian error assumption. The phased array weather radar (PAWR) can observe a dense three-dimensional volume scan with 100-m range resolution and 100 elevation angles in only 30 seconds. The BDA system assimilates the PAWR reflectivity and Doppler velocity observations every 30 seconds into 100 ensemble members of storm-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model at 100-m grid spacing. The 30-second-update, 100-m-mesh BDA system has been quite successful in multiple case studies of local severe rainfall events. However, with 1000 ensemble members, the reduced-resolution BDA system at 1-km grid spacing showed significant non-Gaussian PDF with every-30-second updates. With a 10240-member ensemble Kalman filter with a global NWP model at 112-km grid spacing, we found roughly 1000 members satisfactory to capture the non-Gaussian error structures. With these in mind, we explore how the density of observations in space and time affects the non-Gaussianity in an ensemble Kalman filter with a simple toy model. In this presentation, we will present the most up-to-date results of the BDA research, as well as the investigation with the toy model on the non-Gaussianity with dense and frequent observations.

A gap analysis of meteorological requirements for commercial space operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stapleton, Nicholas James

Commercial space companies will soon be the primary method of launching people and supplies into orbit. Among the critical aspects of space launches are the meteorological concerns. Laws and regulations pertaining to meteorological considerations have been created to ensure the safety of the space industry and those living around spaceports; but, are they adequate? Perhaps the commercial space industry can turn to the commercial aviation industry to help answer that question. Throughout its history, the aviation industry has dealt with lessons learned from mishaps due to failures in understanding the significance of weather impacts on operations. Using lessons from the aviation industry, the commercial space industry can preempt such accidents and maintain viability as an industry. Using Lanicci's Strategic Planning Model, this study identified the weather needs of the commercial space industry by conducting three gap analyses. First, a comparative analysis was done between laws and regulations in commercial aviation and those in the commercial space industry pertaining to meteorological support, finding a "legislative gap" between the two industries, as no legal guarantee is in place to ensure weather products remain available to the commercial space industry. A second analysis was conducted between the meteorological services provided for the commercial aviation industry and commercial space industry, finding a gap at facilities not located at an established launch facility or airport. At such facilities, many weather observational technologies would not be present, and would need to be purchased by the company operating the spaceport facility. A third analysis was conducted between the meteorological products and regulations that are currently in existence, and those needed for safe operations within the commercial space industry, finding gaps in predicting lightning, electric field charge, and space weather. Recommendations to address these deficiencies have been generated for the Federal Aviation Administration, U.S. Congress, commercial space launch companies, and areas are identified for further research.

Benefit assessment of NASA space technology goals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

The socio-economic benefits to be derived from system applications of space technology goals developed by NASA were assessed. Specific studies include: electronic mail; personal telephone communications; weather and climate monitoring, prediction, and control; crop production forecasting and water availability; planetary engineering of the planet Venus; and planetary exploration.

Application of Raytracing Through the High Resolution Numerical Weather Model HIRLAM for the Analysis of European VLBI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garcia-Espada, Susana; Haas, Rudiger; Colomer, Francisco

2010-01-01

An important limitation for the precision in the results obtained by space geodetic techniques like VLBI and GPS are tropospheric delays caused by the neutral atmosphere, see e.g. [1]. In recent years numerical weather models (NWM) have been applied to improve mapping functions which are used for tropospheric delay modeling in VLBI and GPS data analyses. In this manuscript we use raytracing to calculate slant delays and apply these to the analysis of Europe VLBI data. The raytracing is performed through the limited area numerical weather prediction (NWP) model HIRLAM. The advantages of this model are high spatial (0.2 deg. x 0.2 deg.) and high temporal resolution (in prediction mode three hours).

The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT) Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spann, James; Swenson, Charles; Durao, Otavio; Loures, Luis; Heelis, Rod; Bishop, Rebecca; Le, Guan; Abdu, Mangalathayil; Krause, Linda; Denardin, Clezio;

Remote Sensing Global Surface Air Pressure Using Differential Absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Bing; Harrah, Steven; Lawrence, Wes; Hu, Yongxiang; Min, Qilong

2016-01-01

Tropical storms and severe weathers are listed as one of core events that need improved observations and predictions in World Meteorological Organization and NASA Decadal Survey (DS) documents and have major impacts on public safety and national security. This effort tries to observe surface air pressure, especially over open seas, from space using a Differential-absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR) operating at the 50-55 gigahertz O2 absorption band. Air pressure is among the most important variables that affect atmospheric dynamics, and currently can only be measured by limited in-situ observations over oceans. Analyses show that with the proposed space radar the errors in instantaneous (averaged) pressure estimates can be as low as approximately 4 millibars (approximately 1 millibar under all weather conditions). With these sea level pressure measurements, the forecasts of severe weathers such as hurricanes will be significantly improved. Since the development of the DiBAR concept about a decade ago, NASA Langley DiBAR research team has made substantial progress in advancing the concept. The feasibility assessment clearly shows the potential of sea surface barometry using existing radar technologies. The team has developed a DiBAR system design, fabricated a Prototype-DiBAR (P-DiBAR) for proof-of-concept, conducted lab, ground and airborne P-DiBAR tests. The flight test results are consistent with the instrumentation goals. Observational system simulation experiments for space DiBAR performance based on the existing DiBAR technology and capability show substantial improvements in tropical storm predictions, not only for the hurricane track and position but also for the hurricane intensity. DiBAR measurements will lead us to an unprecedented level of the prediction and knowledge on global extreme weather and climate conditions.

The NASA Aircraft VOrtex Spacing System (AVOSS): Concept Demonstration Results and Future Direction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rutishauser, David K.; OConnor, Cornelius J.

2004-01-01

Since the late 1990s the national airspace system has been recognized as approaching a capacity crisis. In the light of this condition, industry, government, user organizations, and educational institutions have been working on procedural and technological solutions to the problem. One aspect of system operations that holds potential for improvement is the separation criteria applied to aircraft for wake vortex avoidance. These criteria, applied when operations are conducted under instrument flight rules (IFR), were designed to represent safe spacing under weather conditions conducive to the longest wake hazards. It is well understood that wake behavior is dependent on meteorological conditions as well as the physical parameters of the generating aircraft. Under many ambient conditions, such as moderate crosswinds or turbulence, wake hazard durations are substantially reduced. To realize this reduction NASA has developed a proof-of-concept Aircraft VOrtex Spacing System (AVOSS). Successfully demonstrated in a realtime field demonstration during July 2000 at the Dallas Ft. Worth International Airport (DFW), AVOSS is a novel integration of weather sensors, wake sensors, and analytical wake prediction algorithms. AVOSS provides dynamic wake separation criteria that are a function of the ambient weather conditions for a particular airport, and the predicted wake behavior under those conditions. Wake sensing subsystems provide safety checks and validation for the predictions. The AVOSS was demonstrated in shadow mode; no actual spacing changes were applied to aircraft. This paper briefly reviews the system architecture and operation, reports the latest performance results from the DFW deployment, and describes the future direction of the project.

Predicting ionospheric scintillation: Recent advancements and future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, B. A.; Currie, J. L.; Terkildsen, M.; Bouya, Z.; Parkinson, M. L.

2017-12-01

Society greatly benefits from space-based infrastructure and technology. For example, signals from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are used across a wide range of industrial sectors; including aviation, mining, agriculture and finance. Current trends indicate that the use of these space-based technologies is likely to increase over the coming decades as the global economy becomes more technology-dependent. Space weather represents a key vulnerability to space-based technology, both in terms of the space environment effects on satellite infrastructure and the influence of the ionosphere on the radio signals used for satellite communications. In recent decades, the impact of the ionosphere on GNSS signals has re-ignited research interest into the equatorial ionosphere, particularly towards understanding Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs). EPBs are a dominant source of nighttime plasma irregularities in the low-latitude ionosphere, which can cause severe scintillation on GNSS signals and subsequent degradation on GNSS product quality. Currently, ionospheric scintillation event forecasts are not being routinely released by any space weather prediction agency around the world, but this is likely to change in the near future. In this contribution, an overview of recent efforts to develop a global ionospheric scintillation prediction capability within Australia will be given. The challenges in understanding user requirements for ionospheric scintillation predictions will be discussed. Next, the use of ground- and space-based datasets for the purpose of near-real time ionospheric scintillation monitoring will be explored. Finally, some modeling that has shown significant promise in transitioning towards an operational ionospheric scintillation forecasting system will be discussed.

Monitoring a local extreme weather event with the scope of hyperspectral sounding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satapathy, Jyotirmayee; Jangid, Buddhi Prakash

2018-06-01

Operational space-based hyperspectral Infrared sounders retrieve atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles from the measured radiances. These sounders like Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder, Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer as well as INSAT-3D sounders on geostationary orbit have proved to be very successful in providing these retrievals on global and regional scales, respectively, with good enough spatio-temporal resolutions and are well competent with that of traditional profiles from radiosondes and models fields. The aim of this work is to show how these new generation hyperspectral Infrared sounders can benefit in real-time weather monitoring. We have considered a regional extreme weather event to demonstrate how the profiles retrieved from these operational sounders are consistent with the environmental conditions which have led to this severe weather event. This work has also made use of data products of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer as well as by radiative transfer simulation of clear and cloudy atmospheric conditions using Numerical Weather Prediction profiles in conjunction with INSAT-3D sounder. Our results indicate the potential use of high-quality hyperspectral atmospheric profiles to aid in delineation of real-time weather prediction.

Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping.

PubMed

Gascard, Jean-Claude; Riemann-Campe, Kathrin; Gerdes, Rüdiger; Schyberg, Harald; Randriamampianina, Roger; Karcher, Michael; Zhang, Jinlun; Rafizadeh, Mehrad

2017-12-01

The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important.

Community Coordinated Modeling Center: Addressing Needs of Operational Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuznetsova, M.; Maddox, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Hesse, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Macneice, P.; Taktakishvili, A.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Zheng, Y.;

Deep Space Ka-band Link Management and the MRO Demonstration: Long-term Weather Statistics Versus Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davarian, Faramaz; Shambayati, Shervin; Slobin, Stephen

2004-01-01

During the last 40 years, deep space radio communication systems have experienced a move toward shorter wavelengths. In the 1960s a transition from L- to S-band occurred which was followed by a transition from S- to X-band in the 1970s. Both these transitions provided deep space links with wider bandwidths and improved radio metrics capability. Now, in the 2000s, a new change is taking place, namely a move to the Ka-band region of the radio frequency spectrum. Ka-band will soon replace X-band as the frequency of choice for deep space communications providing ample spectrum for the high data rate requirements of future missions. The low-noise receivers of deep space networks have a great need for link management techniques that can mitigate weather effects. In this paper, three approaches for managing Ka-band Earth-space links are investigated. The first approach uses aggregate annual statistics, the second one uses monthly statistics, and the third is based on the short-term forecasting of the local weather. An example of weather forecasting for Ka-band link performance prediction is presented. Furthermore, spacecraft commanding schemes suitable for Ka-band link management are investigated. Theses schemes will be demonstrated using NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) spacecraft in the 2007 to 2008 time period, and the demonstration findings will be reported in a future publication.

Validation of Real-time Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections Using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone Heliospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romano, M.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Zheng, Y.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Odstrcil, D.

2013-12-01

Modeling coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is of great interest to the space weather research and forecasting communities. We present recent validation work of real-time CME arrival time predictions at different satellites using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone three-dimensional MHD heliospheric model available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and performed by the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). SWRC is an in-house research-based operations team at the CCMC which provides interplanetary space weather forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and performs real-time model validation. The quality of model operation is evaluated by comparing its output to a measurable parameter of interest such as the CME arrival time and geomagnetic storm strength. The Kp index is calculated from the relation given in Newell et al. (2007), using solar wind parameters predicted by the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model at Earth. The CME arrival time error is defined as the difference between the predicted arrival time and the observed in-situ CME shock arrival time at the ACE, STEREO A, or STEREO B spacecraft. This study includes all real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations performed between June 2011-2013 (over 400 runs) at the CCMC/SWRC. We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three spacecraft. For hits we show the average absolute CME arrival time error, and the dependence of this error on CME input parameters such as speed, width, and direction. We also present the predicted geomagnetic storm strength (using the Kp index) error for Earth-directed CMEs.

SOLAR CYCLE PROPAGATION, MEMORY, AND PREDICTION: INSIGHTS FROM A CENTURY OF MAGNETIC PROXIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; DeLuca, Edward E.; Dasi-Espuig, Maria

The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the lifetime of space-based assets and can create hazards to astronauts in space. In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions (with aims at predicting the long-term evolution of space weather), leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A major contributor to the disagreement is the lack of direct long-term databasesmore » covering different components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal versus poloidal). Here, we use sunspot area and polar faculae measurements spanning a full century (as our toroidal and poloidal field proxies) to study solar cycle propagation, memory, and prediction. Our results substantiate predictions based on the polar magnetic fields, whereas we find sunspot area to be uncorrelated with cycle amplitude unless multiplied by area-weighted average tilt. This suggests that the joint assimilation of tilt and sunspot area is a better choice (with aims to cycle prediction) than sunspot area alone, and adds to the evidence in favor of active region emergence and decay as the main mechanism of poloidal field generation (i.e., the Babcock-Leighton mechanism). Finally, by looking at the correlation between our poloidal and toroidal proxies across multiple cycles, we find solar cycle memory to be limited to only one cycle.« less

The SupraThermal Ion Monitor for space weather predictions.

PubMed

Allegrini, F; Desai, M I; Livi, S; McComas, D J; Ho, G C

2014-05-01

Measurement of suprathermal energy ions in the heliosphere has always been challenging because (1) these ions are situated in the energy regime only a few times higher than the solar wind plasma, where intensities are orders of magnitude higher and (2) ion energies are below or close to the threshold of state-of-art solid-state detectors. Suprathermal ions accelerated at coronal mass ejection-driven shocks propagate out ahead of the shocks. These shocks can cause geomagnetic storms in the Earth's magnetosphere that can affect spacecraft and ground-based power and communication systems. An instrument with sufficient sensitivity to measure these ions can be used to predict the arrival of the shocks and provide an advance warning for potentially geo-effective space weather. In this paper, we present a novel energy analyzer concept, the Suprathermal Ion Monitor (STIM) that is designed to measure suprathermal ions with high sensitivity. We show results from a laboratory prototype and demonstrate the feasibility of the concept. A list of key performances is given, as well as a discussion of various possible detectors at the back end. STIM is an ideal candidate for a future space weather monitor in orbit upstream of the near-earth environment, for example, around L1. A scaled-down version is suitable for a CubeSat mission. Such a platform allows proofing the concept and demonstrating its performance in the space environment.

Active Sensing Air Pressure Using Differential Absorption Barometric Radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, B.

2016-12-01

Tropical storms and other severe weathers cause huge life losses and property damages and have major impacts on public safety and national security. Their observations and predictions need to be significantly improved. This effort tries to develop a feasible active microwave approach that measures surface air pressure, especially over open seas, from space using a Differential-absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR) operating at 50-55 GHz O2 absorption band in order to constrain assimilated dynamic fields of numerical weather Prediction (NWP) models close to actual conditions. Air pressure is the most important variable that drives atmospheric dynamics, and currently can only be measured by limited in-situ observations over oceans. Even over land there is no uniform coverage of surface air pressure measurements. Analyses show that with the proposed space radar the errors in instantaneous (averaged) pressure estimates can be as low as 4mb ( 1mb) under all weather conditions. NASA Langley research team has made substantial progresses in advancing the DiBAR concept. The feasibility assessment clearly shows the potential of surface barometry using existing radar technologies. The team has also developed a DiBAR system design, fabricated a Prototype-DiBAR (P-DiBAR) for proof-of-concept, conducted laboratory, ground and airborne P-DiBAR tests. The flight test results are consistent with the instrumentation goals. The precision and accuracy of radar surface pressure measurements are within the range of the theoretical analysis of the DiBAR concept. Observational system simulation experiments for space DiBAR performance based on the existing DiBAR technology and capability show substantial improvements in tropical storm predictions, not only for the hurricane track and position but also for the hurricane intensity. DiBAR measurements will provide us an unprecedented level of the prediction and knowledge on global extreme weather and climate conditions.

GOES-S NASA Social

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-28

A.J. Sandora, Lockheed Martin's GOES-R Series Mechanical Operations Assembly, Test and Launch Operations (ATLO) manager, speaks to members of social media in the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium. The briefing focused on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. Built by Lockheed Martin Space Systems of Littleton, Colorado, the spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

“Waves” vs. “particles” in the atmosphere's phase space: A pathway to long-range forecasting?

PubMed Central

Ghil, Michael; Robertson, Andrew W.

2002-01-01

Thirty years ago, E. N. Lorenz provided some approximate limits to atmospheric predictability. The details—in space and time—of atmospheric flow fields are lost after about 10 days. Certain gross flow features recur, however, after times of the order of 10–50 days, giving hope for their prediction. Over the last two decades, numerous attempts have been made to predict these recurrent features. The attempts have involved, on the one hand, systematic improvements in numerical weather prediction by increasing the spatial resolution and physical faithfulness in the detailed models used for this prediction. On the other hand, theoretical attempts motivated by the same goal have involved the study of the large-scale atmospheric motions' phase space and the inhomogeneities therein. These “coarse-graining” studies have addressed observed as well as simulated atmospheric data sets. Two distinct approaches have been used in these studies: the episodic or intermittent and the oscillatory or periodic. The intermittency approach describes multiple-flow (or weather) regimes, their persistence and recurrence, and the Markov chain of transitions among them. The periodicity approach studies intraseasonal oscillations, with periods of 15–70 days, and their predictability. We review these two approaches, “particles” vs. “waves,” in the quantum physics analogy alluded to in the title of this article, discuss their complementarity, and outline unsolved problems. PMID:11875201

Space Science

NASA Image and Video Library

2002-04-01

Using the Solar Vector Magnetograph, a solar observation facility at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), scientists from the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, Alabama, are monitoring the explosive potential of magnetic areas of the Sun. This effort could someday lead to better prediction of severe space weather, a phenomenon that occurs when blasts of particles and magnetic fields from the Sun impact the magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble around the Earth. When massive solar explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, blast through the Sun's outer atmosphere and plow toward Earth at speeds of thousands of miles per second, the resulting effects can be harmful to communication satellites and astronauts outside the Earth's magnetosphere. Like severe weather on Earth, severe space weather can be costly. On the ground, magnetic storms wrought by these solar particles can knock out electric power. Photographed are a group of contributing researchers in front of the Solar Vector Magnetograph at MSFC. The researchers are part of NSSTC's solar physics group, which develops instruments for measuring magnetic fields on the Sun. With these instruments, the group studies the origin, structure, and evolution of the solar magnetic fields and the impact they have on Earth's space environment.

Application of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) to determining science and user requirements for space-based missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atlas, R. M.

2016-12-01

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) provide an effective method for evaluating the potential impact of proposed new observing systems, as well as for evaluating trade-offs in observing system design, and in developing and assessing improved methodology for assimilating new observations. As such, OSSEs can be an important tool for determining science and user requirements, and for incorporating these requirements into the planning for future missions. Detailed OSSEs have been conducted at NASA/ GSFC and NOAA/AOML in collaboration with Simpson Weather Associates and operational data assimilation centers over the last three decades. These OSSEs determined correctly the quantitative potential for several proposed satellite observing systems to improve weather analysis and prediction prior to their launch, evaluated trade-offs in orbits, coverage and accuracy for space-based wind lidars, and were used in the development of the methodology that led to the first beneficial impacts of satellite surface winds on numerical weather prediction. In this talk, the speaker will summarize the development of OSSE methodology, early and current applications of OSSEs and how OSSEs will evolve in order to enhance mission planning.

ManUniCast: A Community Weather and Air-Quality Forecasting Teaching Portal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, David M.; Anderson, Stuart; Fairman, Jonathan G.; Lowe, Douglas; McFiggans, Gordon; Lee, Elsa; Seo-Zindy, Ryo

2014-05-01

Manunicast was borne out of the needs of our teaching program: students were entering a world where environmental prediction via numerical model was an essential skill, but were not exposed to the production or output of such models. Our site is an educational testbed to explain to students and the public how weather, air-quality, and air-chemistry forecasts are made using real-time predictions as examples. As far as we know, this site provides the first freely available real-time predictions for the UK. We perform two simulations a day over three domains using the most popular, freely available, community atmospheric mesoscale and chemistry models WRF-ARW and WRF-Chem: 1. a WRF-ARW domain over the North Atlantic and western Europe (20-km horizontal grid spacing) 2. a WRF-ARW domain over the UK and Ireland (4-km grid spacing, nested within the 20-km domain) 3. a WRF-Chem domain over the UK and Ireland (12-km grid spacing) Called ManUniCast (Manchester University Forecast), we offer a suite of products from horizontal maps, time series at stations (meteograms), skew-T-logp charts, and cross sections to help students better visualize the weather and the relationships between the various fields more effectively, specifically through the ability to overlay and fade between different plotted products. This presentation discusses how we funded and built ManUniCast, the struggles we faced, and its use in our classes.

Forecasting Space Weather Events for a Neighboring World

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zheng, Yihua; Mason, Tom; Wood, Erin L.

2015-01-01

Shortly after NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission (MAVEN) spacecraft entered Mars' orbit on 21 September 2014, scientists glimpsed the Martian atmosphere's response to a front of solar energetic particles (SEPs) and an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). In response to some solar flares and CMEs, streams of SEPs burst from the solar atmosphere and are further accelerated in the interplanetary medium between the Sun and the planets. These particles deposit their energy and momentum into anything in their path, including the Martian atmosphere and MAVEN particle detectors. MAVEN scientists had been alerted to the likely CME-Mars encounter by a space weather prediction system that had its origins in space weather forecasting for Earth but now forecasts space weather for Earth's neighboring planets. The two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft and Solar Heliospheric Observatory observed a CME on 26 September, with a trajectory that suggested a Mars intercept. A computer model developed for solar wind prediction, the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil cone model [e.g., Zheng et al., 2013; Parsons et al., 2011], running in real time at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) located at NASA Goddard since 2006, showed the CME propagating in the direction of Mars (Figure 1). According to MAVEN particle detectors, the disturbance and accompanying SEP enhancement at the leading edge of the CME reached Mars at approximately 17 hours Universal Time on 29 September 2014. Such SEPs may have a profound effect on atmospheric escape - they are believed to be a possible means for driving atmospheric loss. SEPs can cause loss of Mars' upper atmosphere through several loss mechanisms including sputtering of the atmosphere. Sputtering occurs when atoms are ejected from the atmosphere due to impacts with energetic particles.

Prediction of CMEs and Type II Bursts from Sun to Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cairns, I. H.; Schmidt, J. M.; Gopalswamy, N.; van der Holst, B.

2017-12-01

Most major space weather events are due to fast CMEs and their shocks interacting with Earth's magnetosphere. SImilarly, type II solar radio bursts are well-known signatures of CMEs and their shocks moving through the corona and solar wind. The properties of the space weather events and the type II radio bursts depend sensitively on the CME velocity, shape, and evolution as functions of position and time, as well as on the magnetic field vector in the coronal and solar wind plasma, downstream of the CME shock, and inside the CME. We report simulations of CMEs and type II bursts from the Sun to Earth with the Space Weather Modelling Framework (2015 and 2016 versions), set up carefully using relevant data, and a kinetic radio emission theory. Excellent agreement between observations, simulations, and theory are found for the coronal (metric) type II burst of 7 September 2014 and associated CME, including the lack of radio emission in the solar wind beyond about 10 solar radii. Similarly, simulation of a CME and type II burst from the Sun to 1 AU over the period 29 November - 1 December 2013 yield excellent agreement for the radio burst from 10 MHz to 30 kHz for STEREO A and B and Wind, arrival of the CME at STEREO A within 1 hour reported time, deceleration of the CME in agreement with the Gopalswamy et al. [2011] observational analyses, and Bz rotations at STEREO A from upstream of the CME shock to within the CME. These results provide strong support for the type II theory and also that the Space WeatherModeling Framework can accurately predict the properties and evolution of CMEs and the interplanetary magnetic field and plasma from the Sun to 1 AU when sufficiently carefully initialized.

CCMC: Serving research and space weather communities with unique space weather services, innovative tools and resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Maddox, Marlo

2015-04-01

With the addition of Space Weather Research Center (a sub-team within CCMC) in 2010 to address NASA’s own space weather needs, CCMC has become a unique entity that not only facilitates research through providing access to the state-of-the-art space science and space weather models, but also plays a critical role in providing unique space weather services to NASA robotic missions, developing innovative tools and transitioning research to operations via user feedback. With scientists, forecasters and software developers working together within one team, through close and direct connection with space weather customers and trusted relationship with model developers, CCMC is flexible, nimble and effective to meet customer needs. In this presentation, we highlight a few unique aspects of CCMC/SWRC’s space weather services, such as addressing space weather throughout the solar system, pushing the frontier of space weather forecasting via the ensemble approach, providing direct personnel and tool support for spacecraft anomaly resolution, prompting development of multi-purpose tools and knowledge bases, and educating and engaging the next generation of space weather scientists.

ESA SSA Programme in support of Space Weather forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luntama, J.; Glover, A.; Hilgers, A. M.

2010-12-01

In 2009 European Space Agency (ESA) started a new programme called Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Preparatory Programme. The objective of the programme is to support the European independent utilisation of and access to space research or services. This will be performed through providing timely and quality data, information, services and knowledge regarding the environment, the threats and the sustainable exploitation of the outer space surrounding the planet Earth. SSA serves the implementation of the strategic missions of the European Space Policy based on the peaceful uses of the outer space by all states, by supporting the autonomous capacity to securely and safely operate the critical European space infrastructures. The SSA Preparatory Program will establish the initial elements that will eventually lead into the full deployment of the European SSA services. The SWE Segment of the SSA will provide user services related to the monitoring of the Sun, the solar wind, the radiation belts, the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. These services will include near real time information and forecasts about the characteristics of the space environment and predictions of space weather impacts on sensitive spaceborne and ground based infrastructure. The SSA SWE system will also include establishment of a permanent database for analysis, model development and scientific research. These services are will support a wide variety of user domains including spacecraft designers, spacecraft operators, human space flights, users and operators of transionospheric radio links, and space weather research community. The precursor SWE services to be established starting in 2010 will include a selected subset of these services based on pre-existing space weather applications and services in Europe. This paper will present the key characteristics of the SSA SWE system that is currently being designed. The presentation will focus on the system characteristics that support space weather forecasting and the related services. The presentation will show results from the analysis of the existing European assets and the identified development needs in the mid and long term future to ensure forecasting capability for the services requested the by SSA SWE users. The analysis covers the future SSA SWE space segment and the service development needs for the ground segment.

Stochastic simulation of predictive space–time scenarios of wind speed using observations and physical model outputs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bessac, Julie; Constantinescu, Emil; Anitescu, Mihai

We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines multiple sources of past physical model outputs and measurements in order to produce a probabilistic wind speed forecast within the prediction window. We illustrate this strategy on wind speed forecasts during several months in 2012 for a region near the Great Lakes in the United States. The results show that the prediction is improved in the mean-squared sense relative to the numerical forecasts as well as in probabilistic scores. Moreover, themore » samples are shown to produce realistic wind scenarios based on sample spectra and space-time correlation structure.« less

Stochastic simulation of predictive space–time scenarios of wind speed using observations and physical model outputs

DOE PAGES

Bessac, Julie; Constantinescu, Emil; Anitescu, Mihai

2018-03-01

We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines multiple sources of past physical model outputs and measurements in order to produce a probabilistic wind speed forecast within the prediction window. We illustrate this strategy on wind speed forecasts during several months in 2012 for a region near the Great Lakes in the United States. The results show that the prediction is improved in the mean-squared sense relative to the numerical forecasts as well as in probabilistic scores. Moreover, themore » samples are shown to produce realistic wind scenarios based on sample spectra and space-time correlation structure.« less

Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew L.; Case, Jonathan L.; Venner, Jason; Moreno-Madrinan, Max. J.; Delgado, Francisco

2012-01-01

Over the past two years, scientists in the Earth Science Office at NASA fs Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have explored opportunities to apply cloud computing concepts to support near real ]time weather forecast modeling via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Collaborators at NASA fs Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the SERVIR project at Marshall Space Flight Center have established a framework that provides high resolution, daily weather forecasts over Mesoamerica through use of the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at Ames Research Center. Supported by experts at Ames, staff at SPoRT and SERVIR have established daily forecasts complete with web graphics and a user interface that allows SERVIR partners access to high resolution depictions of weather in the next 48 hours, useful for monitoring and mitigating meteorological hazards such as thunderstorms, heavy precipitation, and tropical weather that can lead to other disasters such as flooding and landslides. This presentation will describe the framework for establishing and providing WRF forecasts, example applications of output provided via the SERVIR web portal, and early results of forecast model verification against available surface ] and satellite ]based observations.

Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molthan, A.; Case, J.; Venner, J.; Moreno-Madriñán, M. J.; Delgado, F.

2012-12-01

Over the past two years, scientists in the Earth Science Office at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have explored opportunities to apply cloud computing concepts to support near real-time weather forecast modeling via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Collaborators at NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the SERVIR project at Marshall Space Flight Center have established a framework that provides high resolution, daily weather forecasts over Mesoamerica through use of the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at Ames Research Center. Supported by experts at Ames, staff at SPoRT and SERVIR have established daily forecasts complete with web graphics and a user interface that allows SERVIR partners access to high resolution depictions of weather in the next 48 hours, useful for monitoring and mitigating meteorological hazards such as thunderstorms, heavy precipitation, and tropical weather that can lead to other disasters such as flooding and landslides. This presentation will describe the framework for establishing and providing WRF forecasts, example applications of output provided via the SERVIR web portal, and early results of forecast model verification against available surface- and satellite-based observations.

Integrating Research of the Sun-Earth System

DOE PAGES

Jordanova, Vania K.; Borovsky, Joseph E.; Jordanov, Valentin T.

2017-05-02

Understanding the complex interactions between the magnetic fields of the Sun and Earth remains an important challenge to space physics research. Processes that occur near the Sun at tens of thousands of kilometers from the Earth can generate geomagnetic storms that affect the entire magnetosphere, down to the upper atmosphere. These storms also threaten the ever more sophisticated technologies that we place into the space environment to sustain us, for example, GPS, the satellites we rely on to monitor our weather, and relays that guide our radio transmissions. Increasingly, we need to develop space weather models that can provide timelymore » and accurate predictions so that we can safeguard our society and the infrastructure we depend on.« less

Integrating Research of the Sun-Earth System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jordanova, Vania K.; Borovsky, Joseph E.; Jordanov, Valentin T.

Understanding the complex interactions between the magnetic fields of the Sun and Earth remains an important challenge to space physics research. Processes that occur near the Sun at tens of thousands of kilometers from the Earth can generate geomagnetic storms that affect the entire magnetosphere, down to the upper atmosphere. These storms also threaten the ever more sophisticated technologies that we place into the space environment to sustain us, for example, GPS, the satellites we rely on to monitor our weather, and relays that guide our radio transmissions. Increasingly, we need to develop space weather models that can provide timelymore » and accurate predictions so that we can safeguard our society and the infrastructure we depend on.« less

Receivers Gather Data for Climate, Weather Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2012-01-01

Signals from global positioning system (GPS) satellites are now being used for more than just location and navigation information. By looking at the radio waves from GPS satellites, a technology developed at NASA s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) not only precisely calculates its position, but can also use a technique known as radio occultation to help scientists study the Earth s atmosphere and gravity field to improve weather forecasts, monitor climate change, and enhance space weather research. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), a nonprofit group of universities in Boulder, Colorado, compares radio occultation to the appearance of a pencil when viewed though a glass of water. The water molecules change the path of visible light waves so that the pencil appears bent, just like molecules in the air bend GPS radio signals as they pass through (or are occulted by) the atmosphere. Through measurements of the amount of bending in the signals, scientists can construct detailed images of the ionosphere (the energetic upper part of the atmosphere) and also gather information about atmospheric density, pressure, temperature, and moisture. Once collected, this data can be input into weather forecasting and climate models for weather prediction and climate studies. Traditionally, such information is obtained through the use of weather balloons. In 1998, JPL started developing a new class of GPS space science receivers, called Black Jack, that could take precise measurements of how GPS signals are distorted or delayed along their way to the receiver. By 2006, the first demonstration of a GPS radio occultation constellation was launched through a collaboration among Taiwan s National Science Council and National Space Organization, the U.S. National Science Foundation, NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and other Federal entities. Called the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC), JPL was responsible for designing COSMIC s primary instrument - based on its revolutionary Black Jack receiver.

Improving Air Quality (and Weather) Predictions using Advanced Data Assimilation Techniques Applied to Coupled Models during KORUS-AQ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmichael, G. R.; Saide, P. E.; Gao, M.; Streets, D. G.; Kim, J.; Woo, J. H.

2017-12-01

Ambient aerosols are important air pollutants with direct impacts on human health and on the Earth's weather and climate systems through their interactions with radiation and clouds. Their role is dependent on their distributions of size, number, phase and composition, which vary significantly in space and time. There remain large uncertainties in simulated aerosol distributions due to uncertainties in emission estimates and in chemical and physical processes associated with their formation and removal. These uncertainties lead to large uncertainties in weather and air quality predictions and in estimates of health and climate change impacts. Despite these uncertainties and challenges, regional-scale coupled chemistry-meteorological models such as WRF-Chem have significant capabilities in predicting aerosol distributions and explaining aerosol-weather interactions. We explore the hypothesis that new advances in on-line, coupled atmospheric chemistry/meteorological models, and new emission inversion and data assimilation techniques applicable to such coupled models, can be applied in innovative ways using current and evolving observation systems to improve predictions of aerosol distributions at regional scales. We investigate the impacts of assimilating AOD from geostationary satellite (GOCI) and surface PM2.5 measurements on predictions of AOD and PM in Korea during KORUS-AQ through a series of experiments. The results suggest assimilating datasets from multiple platforms can improve the predictions of aerosol temporal and spatial distributions.

Aurorasaurus Database of Real-Time, Soft-Sensor Sourced Aurora Data for Space Weather Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosar, B.; MacDonald, E.; Heavner, M.

2017-12-01

Aurorasaurus is an innovative citizen science project focused on two fundamental objectives i.e., collecting real-time, ground-based signals of auroral visibility from citizen scientists (soft-sensors) and incorporating this new type of data into scientific investigations pertaining to aurora. The project has been live since the Fall of 2014, and as of Summer 2017, the database compiled approximately 12,000 observations (5295 direct reports and 6413 verified tweets). In this presentation, we will focus on demonstrating the utility of this robust science quality data for space weather research needs. These data scale with the size of the event and are well-suited to capture the largest, rarest events. Emerging state-of-the-art computational methods based on statistical inference such as machine learning frameworks and data-model integration methods can offer new insights that could potentially lead to better real-time assessment and space weather prediction when citizen science data are combined with traditional sources.

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service for NOAA, speaks to members of the media at a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket

GOES-S NASA Social

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-28

Joe Pica, director of the Office of Observations for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA’s, National Weather Service, speaks to members of social media in the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium. The briefing focused on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S, the second spacecraft in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

Verification of real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC/SWRC from 2010-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wold, A. M.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Odstrcil, D.; MacNeice, P. J.; Jian, L. K.

2017-12-01

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model CME propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC/Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). CCMC/SWRC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME leading edge measurements near Earth, STEREO-A and STEREO-B for simulations completed between March 2010-December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three spacecraft. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B and we observed an arrival (hit), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 ± 0.9 hours, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 hours. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A side-lobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 hours in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, members of the media participate in a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. Briefing participants from left are: Steve Cole of NASA Communications; Dan Lindsey, GOES-R senior scientific advisor for NOAA; Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service for NOAA; Jim Roberts, a scientist with the Earth System Research Laboratory's Office of Atmospheric Research for NOAA; Kristin Calhoun, a research scientist with NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory, and George Morrow, deputy director of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. GOES-S is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

Solar Storm GIC Forecasting: Solar Shield Extension Development of the End-User Forecasting System Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pulkkinen, A.; Mahmood, S.; Ngwira, C.; Balch, C.; Lordan, R.; Fugate, D.; Jacobs, W.; Honkonen, I.

2015-01-01

A NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Science Division-led team that includes NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, the Catholic University of America, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Electric Research and Management, Inc., recently partnered with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) to better understand the impact of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) on the electric power industry. This effort builds on a previous NASA-sponsored Applied Sciences Program for predicting GIC, known as Solar Shield. The focus of the new DHS S&T funded effort is to revise and extend the existing Solar Shield system to enhance its forecasting capability and provide tailored, timely, actionable information for electric utility decision makers. To enhance the forecasting capabilities of the new Solar Shield, a key undertaking is to extend the prediction system coverage across Contiguous United States (CONUS), as the previous version was only applicable to high latitudes. The team also leverages the latest enhancements in space weather modeling capacity residing at Community Coordinated Modeling Center to increase the Technological Readiness Level, or Applications Readiness Level of the system http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/ExpandedARLDefinitions4813.pdf.

Space-weather Parameters for 1,000 Active Regions Observed by SDO/HMI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobra, M.; Liu, Y.; Hoeksema, J. T.; Sun, X.

2013-12-01

We present statistical studies of several space-weather parameters, derived from observations of the photospheric vector magnetic field by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) aboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory, for a thousand active regions. Each active region has been observed every twelve minutes during the entirety of its disk passage. Some of these parameters, such as energy density and shear angle, indicate the deviation of the photospheric magnetic field from that of a potential field. Other parameters include flux, helicity, field gradients, polarity inversion line properties, and measures of complexity. We show that some of these parameters are useful for event prediction.

Results from the International Heliophysical Year (IHY)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davila, Joseph M.

2010-01-01

The International Heliophysical Year (IHY) involved the effort of thousands of scientists from over 70 countries, ended in February 2009. The major objectives of the IHY included over 60 collaborative studies of universal physical processes in the solar system, the deployment of arrays of small instruments to observe heliophysical processes, a unique program of educational and public outreach, and the preservation of the history of the IGY, during a two year period. A follow on effort, the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is designed to build on the momentum developed during the IHY to develop the capability to observe, understand, and predict space weather phenomena.

KSC-2015-1299

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-02-07

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – A prelaunch briefing at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida brings media up to date on preparations for the liftoff of NOAA’s Deep Space Climate Observatory spacecraft, or DSCOVR. From left are Michael Curie, moderator, NASA Public Affairs, Stephen Volz, assistant administrator of the NOAA Satellite and Information Service, Tom Berger, director of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Steven Clarke, NASA Joint Agency Satellite Division director for the agency’s Science Mission Directorate, Col. D. Jason Cothern, Space Demonstrations Division chief at Kirtland Air Force Base in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Hans Koenigsmann, vice president of mission assurance at SpaceX. DSCOVR will launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. The mission is a partnership between NOAA, NASA and the U.S. Air Force. DSCOVR will maintain the nation's real-time solar wind monitoring capabilities which are critical to the accuracy and lead time of NOAA's space weather alerts and forecasts. To learn more about DSCOVR, visit http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/DSCOVR. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossman

Space physics and policy for contemporary society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassak, P. A.; Emslie, A. G.; Halford, A. J.; Baker, D. N.; Spence, H. E.; Avery, S. K.; Fisk, L. A.

2017-04-01

Space physics is the study of Earth's home in space. Elements of space physics include how the Sun works from its interior to its atmosphere, the environment between the Sun and planets out to the interstellar medium, and the physics of the magnetic barriers surrounding Earth and other planets. Space physics is highly relevant to society. Space weather, with its goal of predicting how Earth's technological infrastructure responds to activity on the Sun, is an oft-cited example, but there are many more. Space physics has important impacts in formulating public policy.

Comparative study of predicted and experimentally detected interplanetary shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kartalev, M. D.; Grigorov, K. G.; Smith, Z.; Dryer, M.; Fry, C. D.; Sun, Wei; Deehr, C. S.

2002-03-01

We compare the real time space weather prediction shock arrival times at 1 AU made by the USAF/NOAA Shock Time of Arrival (STOA) and Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model (ISPM) models, and the Exploration Physics International/University of Alaska Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry Solar Wind Model (HAF-v2) to a real time analysis analysis of plasma and field ACE data. The comparison is made using an algorithm that was developed on the basis of wavelet data analysis and MHD identification procedure. The shock parameters are estimated for selected "candidate events". An appropriate automatically performing Web-based interface periodically utilizes solar wind observations made by the ACE at L1. Near real time results as well an archive of the registered interesting events are available on a specially developed web site. A number of events are considered. These studies are essential for the validation of real time space weather forecasts made from solar data.

Impacts of variability in cellulosic biomass yields on energy security.

PubMed

Mullins, Kimberley A; Matthews, H Scott; Griffin, W Michael; Anex, Robert

2014-07-01

The practice of modeling biomass yields on the basis of deterministic point values aggregated over space and time obscures important risks associated with large-scale biofuel use, particularly risks related to drought-induced yield reductions that may become increasingly frequent under a changing climate. Using switchgrass as a case study, this work quantifies the variability in expected yields over time and space through switchgrass growth modeling under historical and simulated future weather. The predicted switchgrass yields across the United States range from about 12 to 19 Mg/ha, and the 80% confidence intervals range from 20 to 60% of the mean. Average yields are predicted to decrease with increased temperatures and weather variability induced by climate change. Feedstock yield variability needs to be a central part of modeling to ensure that policy makers acknowledge risks to energy supplies and develop strategies or contingency plans that mitigate those risks.

The Complex Relationship between Weather and Dengue Virus Transmission in Thailand

PubMed Central

Campbell, Karen M.; Lin, C. D.; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Scott, Thomas W.

2013-01-01

Using a novel analytical approach, weather dynamics and seasonal dengue virus transmission cycles were profiled for each Thailand province, 1983–2001, using monthly assessments of cases, temperature, humidity, and rainfall. We observed systematic differences in the structure of seasonal transmission cycles of different magnitude, the role of weather in regulating seasonal cycles, necessary versus optimal transmission “weather-space,” basis of large epidemics, and predictive indicators that estimate risk. Larger epidemics begin earlier, develop faster, and are predicted at Onset change-point when case counts are low. Temperature defines a viable range for transmission; humidity amplifies the potential within that range. This duality is central to transmission. Eighty percent of 1.2 million severe dengue cases occurred when mean temperature was 27–29.5°C and mean humidity was > 75%. Interventions are most effective when applied early. Most cases occur near Peak, yet small reductions at Onset can substantially reduce epidemic magnitude. Monitoring the Quiet-Phase is fundamental in effectively targeting interventions pre-emptively. PMID:23958906

NCAR's Experimental Real-time Convection-allowing Ensemble Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, C. S.; Romine, G. S.; Sobash, R.; Fossell, K.

2016-12-01

Since April 2015, the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR's) Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) Laboratory, in collaboration with NCAR's Computational Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), has been producing daily, real-time, 10-member, 48-hr ensemble forecasts with 3-km horizontal grid spacing over the conterminous United States (http://ensemble.ucar.edu). These computationally-intensive, next-generation forecasts are produced on the Yellowstone supercomputer, have been embraced by both amateur and professional weather forecasters, are widely used by NCAR and university researchers, and receive considerable attention on social media. Initial conditions are supplied by NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) software and the forecast model is NCAR's Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; both WRF and DART are community tools. This presentation will focus on cutting-edge research results leveraging the ensemble dataset, including winter weather predictability, severe weather forecasting, and power outage modeling. Additionally, the unique design of the real-time analysis and forecast system and computational challenges and solutions will be described.

The complex relationship between weather and dengue virus transmission in Thailand.

PubMed

Campbell, Karen M; Lin, C D; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Scott, Thomas W

2013-12-01

Using a novel analytical approach, weather dynamics and seasonal dengue virus transmission cycles were profiled for each Thailand province, 1983-2001, using monthly assessments of cases, temperature, humidity, and rainfall. We observed systematic differences in the structure of seasonal transmission cycles of different magnitude, the role of weather in regulating seasonal cycles, necessary versus optimal transmission "weather-space," basis of large epidemics, and predictive indicators that estimate risk. Larger epidemics begin earlier, develop faster, and are predicted at Onset change-point when case counts are low. Temperature defines a viable range for transmission; humidity amplifies the potential within that range. This duality is central to transmission. Eighty percent of 1.2 million severe dengue cases occurred when mean temperature was 27-29.5°C and mean humidity was > 75%. Interventions are most effective when applied early. Most cases occur near Peak, yet small reductions at Onset can substantially reduce epidemic magnitude. Monitoring the Quiet-Phase is fundamental in effectively targeting interventions pre-emptively.

Comparison of different models for ground-level atmospheric turbulence strength (C(n)(2)) prediction with a new model according to local weather data for FSO applications.

PubMed

Arockia Bazil Raj, A; Arputha Vijaya Selvi, J; Durairaj, S

2015-02-01

Atmospheric parameters strongly affect the performance of free-space optical communication (FSOC) systems when the optical wave is propagating through the inhomogeneous turbulence transmission medium. Developing a model to get an accurate prediction of the atmospheric turbulence strength (C(n)(2)) according to meteorological parameters (weather data) becomes significant to understand the behavior of the FSOC channel during different seasons. The construction of a dedicated free-space optical link for the range of 0.5 km at an altitude of 15.25 m built at Thanjavur (Tamil Nadu) is described in this paper. The power level and beam centroid information of the received signal are measured continuously with weather data at the same time using an optoelectronic assembly and the developed weather station, respectively, and are recorded in a data-logging computer. Existing models that exhibit relatively fewer prediction errors are briefed and are selected for comparative analysis. Measured weather data (as input factors) and C(n)(2) (as a response factor) of size [177,147×4] are used for linear regression analysis and to design mathematical models more suitable in the test field. Along with the model formulation methodologies, we have presented the contributions of the input factors' individual and combined effects on the response surface and the coefficient of determination (R(2)) estimated using analysis of variance tools. An R(2) value of 98.93% is obtained using the new model, model equation V, from a confirmatory test conducted with a testing data set of size [2000×4]. In addition, the prediction accuracies of the selected and the new models are investigated during different seasons in a one-year period using the statistics of day, week-averaged, month-averaged, and seasonal-averaged diurnal Cn2 profiles, and are verified in terms of the sum of absolute error (SAE). A Cn2 prediction maximum average SAE of 2.3×10(-13)  m(-2/3) is achieved using the new model in a longer range of dynamic meteorological parameters during the different local seasons.

NASA GSFC Space Weather Center - Innovative Space Weather Dissemination: Web-Interfaces, Mobile Applications, and More

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddox, Marlo; Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna; Hesse, Michael; Mullinix, Richard;

What the Heliophysics System Observatory is teaching us about future constellations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angelopoulos, V.

2017-12-01

Owing to the benign space weather during the recent solar cycle numerous Heliophysics missions have outlived their original purpose and have exceeded expectations in terms of science return. The simultaneous availability of several multi-spacecraft fleets also offers conjunction opportunities that compounds their science yield. It allows the Heliophysics System, a vast region of Sun-Earth interactions, to be peered through the colletive eyes of a fortuitous grand Observatory. The success of this Heliophysics/Geospace System Observatory (H/GSO) has been partly due to fuel resources available on THEMIS, allowing it to reconfigure its orbit lines of apsides, apogees and mean anomalies to optimize conjunctions with the rest of the H/GSO. The other part of the success has been a mandatory open data policy, the accessibility of the data though common data formats, unified analysis tools (e.g. SPEDAS) and distributed data repositories. Future constellations are motivated by the recent science lessons learned: Tight connections between dayside and nightside processes, evidenced by fortuitous conjunctions of ground and space-based assets, suggest that regional activations drive classical global modes of circulation. Like regional tornadoes and hurricanes synthesize global atmospheric weather that cannot be studied with 5 weather stations alone, one per continent, so do dayside reconnection, and nightside injections require more than a handful of point measurements. Like atmospheric weather, space weather too requires networks of stations built to meet a minimum set of requirements to "play together" and build on each other over time. Like Argo's >3000 buoys have revolutionized research, modeling and prediction by global circulation models, "space buoys" can study space weather fronts and double-up as monitors and inputs to space weather models, increasing fidelity and advance warning. Reconfigurability can allow versatility as the scientific targets adjust to the knowledge gained over the years. Classical single-satellite, multi-sensor or imaging missions can benefit from the context that constellations provide. CubeSats, a disruptive technology, are catalysts for the emergence of constellations, a new research and operations asset for Heliophysics.

ESA SSA Space Weather Services Supporting Space Surveillance and Tracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luntama, Juha-Pekka; Glover, Alexi; Hilgers, Alain; Fletcher, Emmet

2012-07-01

ESA Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Preparatory Programme was started in 2009. The objective of the programme is to support the European independent utilisation of and access to space research or services. This will be performed through providing timely and quality data, information, services and knowledge regarding the environment, the threats and the sustainable exploitation of the outer space surrounding the planet Earth. SSA serves the implementation of the strategic missions of the European Space Policy based on the peaceful uses of the outer space by all states, by supporting the autonomous capacity to securely and safely operate the critical European space infrastructures. The Space Weather (SWE) Segment of the SSA will provide user services related to the monitoring of the Sun, the solar wind, the radiation belts, the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. These services will include near real time information and forecasts about the characteristics of the space environment and predictions of space weather impacts on sensitive spaceborne and ground based infrastructure. The SSA SWE system will also include establishment of a permanent database for analysis, model development and scientific research. These services are will support a wide variety of user domains including spacecraft designers, spacecraft operators, human space flights, users and operators of transionospheric radio links, and space weather research community. The precursor SWE services to be established starting in 2010. This presentation provides an overview of the ESA SSA SWE services focused on supporting the Space Surveillance and Tracking users. This services include estimates of the atmospheric drag and archive and forecasts of the geomagnetic and solar indices. In addition, the SSA SWE system will provide nowcasts of the ionospheric group delay to support mitigation of the ionospheric impact on radar signals. The paper will discuss the user requirements for the services, the data requirements and the foreseen development needs for the ESA SSA SWE system before the full service capability is available.

Space Weather and the Ground-Level Solar Proton Events of the 23rd Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

2012-10-01

Solar proton events can adversely affect space and ground-based systems. Ground-level events are a subset of solar proton events that have a harder spectrum than average solar proton events and are detectable on Earth's surface by cosmic radiation ionization chambers, muon detectors, and neutron monitors. This paper summarizes the space weather effects associated with ground-level solar proton events during the 23rd solar cycle. These effects include communication and navigation systems, spacecraft electronics and operations, space power systems, manned space missions, and commercial aircraft operations. The major effect of ground-level events that affect manned spacecraft operations is increased radiation exposure. The primary effect on commercial aircraft operations is the loss of high frequency communication and, at extreme polar latitudes, an increase in the radiation exposure above that experienced from the background galactic cosmic radiation. Calculations of the maximum potential aircraft polar route exposure for each ground-level event of the 23rd solar cycle are presented. The space weather effects in October and November 2003 are highlighted together with on-going efforts to utilize cosmic ray neutron monitors to predict high energy solar proton events, thus providing an alert so that system operators can possibly make adjustments to vulnerable spacecraft operations and polar aircraft routes.

Space Science

NASA Image and Video Library

1990-10-01

Using the Solar Vector Magnetograph, a solar observation facility at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), scientists from the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, Alabama, are monitoring the explosive potential of magnetic areas of the Sun. This effort could someday lead to better prediction of severe space weather, a phenomenon that occurs when blasts of particles and magnetic fields from the Sun impact the magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble around the Earth. When massive solar explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, blast through the Sun's outer atmosphere and plow toward Earth at speeds of thousands of miles per second, the resulting effects can be harmful to communication satellites and astronauts outside the Earth's magnetosphere. Like severe weather on Earth, severe space weather can be costly. On the ground, the magnetic storm wrought by these solar particles can knock out electric power. The researchers from MSFC and NSSTC's solar physics group develop instruments for measuring magnetic fields on the Sun. With these instruments, the group studies the origin, structure, and evolution of the solar magnetic field and the impact it has on Earth's space environment. This photograph shows the Solar Vector Magnetograph and Dr. Mona Hagyard of MSFC, the director of the observatory who leads the development, operation and research program of the Solar Vector Magnetograph.

An Inquiry-Based Approach to Teaching Space Weather to Undergraduate Non-Science Majors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cade, W. B., III

2016-12-01

Undergraduate Space Weather education is an important component of creating a society that is knowledgeable about space weather and its societal impacts. The space physics community has made great strides in providing academic education for students, typically physics and engineering majors, who are interested in pursuing a career in the space sciences or space weather. What is rarely addressed, however, is providing a broader space weather education to undergraduate students as a whole. To help address this gap, I have created an introductory space weather course for non-science majors, with the idea of expanding exposure to space weather beyond the typical physics and engineering students. The philosophy and methodologies used in this course will be presented, as well as the results of the first attempts to teach it. Using an approach more tailored to the non-scientist, courses such as this can be an effective means of broadening space weather education and outreach.

Overview of Goal 1 (Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events) of the National Space Weather Action Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonas, S.; Murtagh, W. J.; Clarke, S. W.

2017-12-01

The National Space Weather Action Plan identifies approximately 100 distinct activities across six strategic goals. Many of these activities depend on the identification of a series of benchmarks that describe the physical characteristics of space weather events on or near Earth. My talk will provide an overview of Goal 1 (Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events) of the National Space Weather Action Plan which will provide an introduction to the panel presentations and discussions.

Global navigation satellite sounding of the atmosphere and GNSS altimetry : prospects for geosciences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yunck, Tom P.; Hajj, George A.

2003-01-01

The vast illuminating power of the Global Positioning System (GPS), which transformed space geodesy in the 199Os, is now serving to probe the earth's fluid envelope in unique ways. Three distinct techniques have emerged: ground-based sensing of the integrated atmospheric moisture; space-based profiling of atmospheric refractivity, pressure, temperature, moisture, and other properties by active limb sounding; and surface (ocean and ice) altimetry and scatterometry with reflected signals detected from space. Ground-based GPS moisture sensing is already in provisional use for numerical weather prediction. Limb sounding, while less mature, offers a bevy of attractions, including high accuracy, stability, and vertical resolution; all-weather operation; and exceptionally low cost. GPS bistatic radar, r 'reflectometry,' is the least advanced but shows promise for a number of niche applications.

A framework of space weather satellite data pipeline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Fuli; Zou, Ziming

Various applications indicate a need of permanent space weather information. The diversity of available instruments enables a big variety of products. As an indispensable part of space weather satellite operation system, space weather data processing system is more complicated than before. The information handled by the data processing system has been used in more and more fields such as space weather monitoring and space weather prediction models. In the past few years, many satellites have been launched by China. The data volume downlinked by these satellites has achieved the so-called big data level and it will continue to grow fast in the next few years due to the implementation of many new space weather programs. Because of the huge amount of data, the current infrastructure is no longer incapable of processing data timely, so we proposed a new space weather data processing system (SWDPS) based on the architecture of cloud computing. Similar to Hadoop, SWDPS decomposes the tasks into smaller tasks which will be executed by many different work nodes. Control Center in SWDPS, just like NameNode and JobTracker within Hadoop which is the bond between the data and the cluster, will establish work plan for the cluster once a client submits data. Control Center will allocate node for the tasks and the monitor the status of all tasks. As the same of TaskTrakcer, Compute Nodes in SWDPS are the salves of Control Center which are responsible for calling the plugins(e.g., dividing and sorting plugins) to execute the concrete jobs. They will also manage all the tasks’ status and report them to Control Center. Once a task fails, a Compute Node will notify Control Center. Control Center decides what to do then; it may resubmit the job elsewhere, it may mark that specific record as something to avoid, and it may even blacklist the Compute Node as unreliable. In addition to these modules, SWDPS has a different module named Data Service which is used to provide file operations such as adding, deleting, modifying and querying for the clients. Beyond that Data Service can also split and combine files based on the timestamp of each record. SWDPS has been used for quite some time and it has been successfully dealt with many satellites, such as FY1C, FY1D, FY2A, FY2B, etc. The good performance in actual operation shows that SWDPS is stable and reliable.

A new class of long-term stable lunar resonance orbits: Space weather applications and the Interstellar Boundary Explorer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McComas, D. J.; Carrico, J. P.; Hautamaki, B.; Intelisano, M.; Lebois, R.; Loucks, M.; Policastri, L.; Reno, M.; Scherrer, J.; Schwadron, N. A.; Tapley, M.; Tyler, R.

2011-11-01

NASA's Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission was recently maneuvered into a unique long-term stable Earth orbit, with apogee at ˜50 Earth radii (RE). The Moon's (˜65 RE) gravity disrupts most highly elliptical Earth orbits, leading to (1) chaotic orbital solutions, (2) the inability to predict orbital positions more than a few years into the future, and ultimately (3) mission-ending possibilities of atmospheric reentry or escape from Earth orbit. By synchronizing the satellite's orbital period to integer fractions of the Moon's sidereal period, PM = 27.3 days (e.g., PM/2 = 13.6 days, PM/3 = 9.1 days), and phasing apogee to stay away from the Moon, very long term stability can be achieved. Our analysis indicates orbital stability for well over a decade, and these IBEX-like orbits represent a new class of Earth orbits that are stable far longer than typical satellite lifetimes. These orbits provide cost-effective and nearly ideal locations for long-term space weather observations from spacecraft that can remotely image the Earth's magnetosphere from outside its boundaries while simultaneously providing external (solar wind or magnetosheath) observation over most of their orbits. Utilized with multiple spacecraft, such orbits would allow continuous and simultaneous monitoring of the magnetosphere in order to help predict and mitigate adverse space weather-driven effects.

Innovative Near Real-Time Data Dissemination Tools Developed by the Space Weather Research Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maddox, Marlo M.; Mullinix, Richard; Mays, M. Leila; Kuznetsova, Maria; Zheng, Yihua; Pulkkinen, Antti; Rastaetter, Lutz

2013-03-01

Access to near real-time and real-time space weather data is essential to accurately specifying and forecasting the space environment. The Space Weather Research Center at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Space Weather Laboratory provides vital space weather forecasting services primarily to NASA robotic mission operators, as well as external space weather stakeholders including the Air Force Weather Agency. A key component in this activity is the iNtegrated Space Weather Analysis System which is a joint development project at NASA GSFC between the Space Weather Laboratory, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Applied Engineering & Technology Directorate, and NASA HQ Office Of Chief Engineer. The iSWA system was developed to address technical challenges in acquiring and disseminating space weather environment information. A key design driver for the iSWA system was to generate and present vast amounts of space weather resources in an intuitive, user-configurable, and adaptable format - thus enabling users to respond to current and future space weather impacts as well as enabling post-impact analysis. Having access to near real-time and real-time data is essential to not only ensuring that relevant observational data is available for analysis - but also in ensuring that models can be driven with the requisite input parameters at proper and efficient temporal and spacial resolutions. The iSWA system currently manages over 300 unique near-real and real-time data feeds from various sources consisting of both observational and simulation data. A comprehensive suite of actionable space weather analysis tools and products are generated and provided utilizing a mixture of the ingested data - enabling new capabilities in quickly assessing past, present, and expected space weather effects. This paper will highlight current and future iSWA system capabilities including the utilization of data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory mission. http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Space Weather Impacts to Mariners

Science.gov Websites

Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's National Weather Service Marine Forecasts SPACE WEATHER IMPACTS TO MARINERS Marine present an even greater danger near shore or any shallow waters? Space Weather Impacts to Mariners Don't ), Notices to Mariners, Special Paragraphs: "(73) SPACE WEATHER IMPACTS. There is a growing potential

Regional input to joint European space weather service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanislawska, I.; Belehaki, A.; Jansen, F.; Heynderickx, D.; Lilensten, J.; Candidi, M.

The basis for elaborating within COST 724 Action Developing the scientific basis for monitoring modeling and predicting Space Weather European space weather service is rich by many national and international activities which provide instruments and tools for global as well as regional monitoring and modeling COST 724 stimulates coordinates and supports Europe s goals of development and global cooperation by providing standards for timely and high quality information and knowledge in space weather Existing local capabilities are taken into account to develop synergies and avoid duplication The enhancement of environment monitoring networks and associated instruments technology yields mutual advantages for European service and regional services specialized for local users needs It structurally increases the integration of limited-area services generates a platform employing the same approach to each task differing mostly in input and output data In doing so it also provides complementary description of the environmental state within issued information A general scheme of regional services concept within COST 724 activity can be the processing chain from measurements trough algorithms to operational knowledge It provides the platform for interaction among the local end users who define what kind of information they need system providers who elaborate tools necessary to obtain required information and local service providers who do the actual processing of data and tailor it to specific user s needs Such initiative creates a unique possibility for small

Optical sensors for mapping temperature and winds in the thermosphere from a CubeSat platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, Stephanie Whalen

The thermosphere is the region between approximately 80 km and 320 or more km above the earth's surface. While many people consider this elevation to be space rather than atmosphere, there is a small quantity of gasses in this region. The behavior of these gasses influences the orbits of satellites, including the International Space Station, causes space weather events, and influences the weather closer to the surface of the earth. Due to the location and characteristics of the thermosphere, even basic properties such as temperature are very difficult to measure. High spatial and temporal resolution data on temperatures and winds in the thermosphere are needed by both the space weather and earth climate modeling communities. To address this need, Space Dynamics Laboratory (SDL) started the Profiling Oxygen Emissions of the Thermosphere (POET) program. POET consists of a series of sensors designed to fly on sounding rockets, CubeSats, or larger platforms, such as IridiumNEXT SensorPODS. While each sensor design is different, they all use characteristics of oxygen optical emissions to measure space weather properties. The POET program builds upon the work of the RAIDS, Odin, and UARS programs. Our intention is to dramatically reduce the costs of building, launching, and operating spectrometers in space, thus allowing for more sensors to be in operation. Continuous long-term data from multiple sensors is necessary to understand the underlying physics required to accurately model and predict weather in the thermosphere. While previous spectrometers have been built to measure winds and temperatures in the thermosphere, they have all been large and expensive. The POET sensors use new focal plane technology and optical designs to overcome these obstacles. This thesis focuses on the testing and calibration of the two POET sensors: the Oxygen Profiling of the Atmospheric Limb (OPAL) temperature sensor and the Split-field Etalon Doppler Imager (SEDI) wind sensor.

Data Products From Particle Detectors On-Board NOAA's Newest Space Weather Monitor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kress, B. T.; Rodriguez, J. V.; Onsager, T. G.

2017-12-01

NOAA's newest Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, GOES-16, was launched on 19 November 2016. Instrumentation on-board GOES-16 includes the new Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS), which has been collecting data since 8 January 2017. SEISS is composed of five magnetospheric particle sensor units: an electrostatic analyzer for measuring 30 eV - 30 keV ions and electrons (MPS-LO), a high energy particle sensor (MPS-HI) that measures keV to MeV electrons and protons, east and west facing Solar and Galactic Proton Sensor (SGPS) units with 13 differential channels between 1-500 MeV, and an Energetic Heavy Ion Sensor (EHIS) that measures 30 species of heavy ions (He-Ni) in five energy bands in the 10-200 MeV/nuc range. Measurement of low energy magnetospheric particles by MPS-LO and heavy ions by EHIS are new capabilities not previously flown on the GOES system. Real-time data from GOES-16 will support space weather monitoring and first-principles space weather modeling by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Space weather level 2+ data products under development at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) include the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) Event Detection algorithm. Legacy components of the SEP event detection algorithm (currently produced by SWPC) include the Solar Radiation Storm Scales. New components will include, e.g., event fluences. New level 2+ data products also include the SEP event Linear Energy Transfer (LET) Algorithm, for transforming energy spectra from EHIS into LET spectra, and the Density and Temperature Moments and Spacecraft Charging algorithm. The moments and charging algorithm identifies electron and ion signatures of spacecraft surface (frame) charging in the MPS-LO fluxes. Densities and temperatures from MPS-LO will also be used to support a magnetopause crossing detection algorithm. The new data products will provide real-time indicators of potential radiation hazards for the satellite community and data for future studies of space weather effects. This presentation will include an overview of these algorithms and examples of their performance during recent co-rotation interaction region (CIR) associated radiation belt enhancements and a solar particle event on 14-15 July 2017.

Flux rope evolution in interplanetary coronal mass ejections: the 13 May 2005 event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manchester, W. B., IV; van der Holst, B.; Lavraud, B.

2014-06-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are a dramatic manifestation of solar activity that release vast amounts of plasma into the heliosphere, and have many effects on the interplanetary medium and on planetary atmospheres, and are the major driver of space weather. CMEs occur with the formation and expulsion of large-scale magnetic flux ropes from the solar corona, which are routinely observed in interplanetary space. Simulating and predicting the structure and dynamics of these interplanetary CME magnetic fields are essential to the progress of heliospheric science and space weather prediction. We discuss the simulation of the 13 May 2005 CME event in which we follow the propagation of a flux rope from the solar corona to beyond Earth orbit. In simulating this event, we find that the magnetic flux rope reconnects with the interplanetary magnetic field, to evolve to an open configuration and later reconnects to reform a twisted structure sunward of the original rope. Observations of the 13 May 2005 CME magnetic field near Earth suggest that such a rearrangement of magnetic flux by reconnection may have occurred.

Space Weather Services of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Park, S.; Kim, Y. Y.; Wi, G.

2015-12-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

Space Weather Services of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, KiChang; Kim, Jae-Hun; Kim, Young Yun; Kwon, Yongki; Wi, Gwan-sik

2016-07-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

Space Weather Services of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.

2016-12-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

2011 Space Weather Workshop to Be Held in April

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peltzer, Thomas

2011-04-01

The annual Space Weather Workshop will be held in Boulder, Colo., 26-29 April 2011. The workshop will bring customers, forecasters, commercial service providers, researchers, and government agencies together in a lively dialogue about space weather. The workshop will include 4 days of plenary sessions on a variety of topics, with poster sessions focusing on the Sun, interplanetary space, the magnetosphere, and the ionosphere. The conference will address the remarkably diverse impacts of space weather on today's technology. Highlights on this year's agenda will include presentations on space weather impacts on the Global Positioning System (GPS), the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory's (STEREO) mission milestone of a 360° view of the Sun, the latest from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), and space weather impacts on emergency response by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Additionally, the vulnerabilities of satellites and the power grid to space weather will be addressed. Additional highlights will include the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group's (CSWIG) roundtable session and a presentation from the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM). The CSWIG roundtable session on the growth of the space weather enterprise will feature distinguished panelists. As always, lively interaction between the audience and the panel is anticipated. The OFCM will present the National Space Weather Program's new strategic plan.

The May 1967 great storm and radio disruption event: Extreme space weather and extraordinary responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knipp, D. J.; Ramsay, A. C.; Beard, E. D.; Boright, A. L.; Cade, W. B.; Hewins, I. M.; McFadden, R. H.; Denig, W. F.; Kilcommons, L. M.; Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

2016-09-01

Although listed as one of the most significant events of the last 80 years, the space weather storm of late May 1967 has been of mostly fading academic interest. The storm made its initial mark with a colossal solar radio burst causing radio interference at frequencies between 0.01 and 9.0 GHz and near-simultaneous disruptions of dayside radio communication by intense fluxes of ionizing solar X-rays. Aspects of military control and communication were immediately challenged. Within hours a solar energetic particle event disrupted high-frequency communication in the polar cap. Subsequently, record-setting geomagnetic and ionospheric storms compounded the disruptions. We explain how the May 1967 storm was nearly one with ultimate societal impact, were it not for the nascent efforts of the United States Air Force in expanding its terrestrial weather monitoring-analysis-warning-prediction efforts into the realm of space weather forecasting. An important and long-lasting outcome of this storm was more formal Department of Defense-support for current-day space weather forecasting. This story develops during the rapid rise of solar cycle 20 and the intense Cold War in the latter half of the twentieth century. We detail the events of late May 1967 in the intersecting categories of solar-terrestrial interactions and the political-military backdrop of the Cold War. This was one of the "Great Storms" of the twentieth century, despite the apparent lack of large geomagnetically induced currents. Radio disruptions like those discussed here warrant the attention of today's radio-reliant, cellular-phone and satellite-navigation enabled world.

Space Weather Products at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Maddox, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Berrios, D.; MacNeice, P.

2010-01-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second CCMC activity is to support Space Weather forecasting at national Space Weather Forecasting Centers. This second activity involves model evaluations, model transitions to operations, and the development of space weather forecasting tools. Owing to the pace of development in the science community, new model capabilities emerge frequently. Consequently, space weather products and tools involve not only increased validity, but often entirely new capabilities. This presentation will review the present state of space weather tools as well as point out emerging future capabilities.

The GOES-R Spacecraft Space Weather Instruments and Level 2+ Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loto'aniu, Paul; Rodriguez, Juan; Machol, Janet; Kress, Brian; Darnel, Jonathan; Redmon, Robert; Rowland, William; Seation, Daniel; Tilton, Margaret; Denig, William

2016-04-01

Since their inception in the 1970s, the GOES satellites have monitored the sources of space weather on the sun and the effects of space weather at Earth. The space weather instruments on GOES-R will monitor: solar X-rays, UV light, solar energetic particles, magnetospheric energetic particles, galactic cosmic rays, and Earth's magnetic field. These measurements are important for providing alerts and warnings to many customers, including satellite operators, the power utilities, and NASA's human activities in space. This presentation reviews the capabilities of the GOES-R space weather instruments and describes the space weather Level 2+ products that are being developed for GOES-R. These new and continuing data products will be an integral part of NOAA space weather operations in the GOES-R era.

Exploring earth's atmosphere with radio occultation: contributions to weather, climate and space weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anthes, R. A.

2011-01-01

The launch of the proof-of-concept mission GPS/MET in 1995 began a revolution in profiling earth's atmosphere through radio occultation (RO). GPS/MET; subsequent single-satellite missions CHAMP, SAC-C, GRACE, METOP-A, and TerraSAR-X; and the six-satellite constellation, FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC, have proven the theoretical capabilities of RO to provide accurate and precise profiles of electron density in the ionosphere and refractivity, containing information on temperature and water vapor, in the stratosphere and troposphere. This paper summarizes results from these RO missions and the applications of RO observations to atmospheric research and operational weather analysis and prediction.

GOES-S NASA Social

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-28

Tim Walsh, GOES-R System Program director for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, speaks to members of social media in the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium. The briefing focused on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S, the second spacecraft in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, Dan Lindsey, GOES-R senior scientific advisor for NOAA, speaks to members of the media at a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

GOES-S NASA Social

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-28

Jason Townsend, NASA's social media manager, speaks to members of social media in the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium. The briefing focused on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, Steve Cole of NASA Communications speaks to members of the media at a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

Communicating space weather to policymakers and the wider public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Bárbara

2014-05-01

As a natural hazard, space weather has the potential to affect space- and ground-based technological systems and cause harm to human health. As such, it is important to properly communicate this topic to policymakers and the general public alike, informing them (without being unnecessarily alarmist) about the potential impact of space-weather phenomena and how these can be monitored and mitigated. On the other hand, space weather is related to interesting phenomena on the Sun such as coronal-mass ejections, and incorporates one of the most beautiful displays in the Earth and its nearby space environment: aurora. These exciting and fascinating aspects of space weather should be cultivated when communicating this topic to the wider public, particularly to younger audiences. Researchers have a key role to play in communicating space weather to both policymakers and the wider public. Space scientists should have an active role in informing policy decisions on space-weather monitoring and forecasting, for example. And they can exercise their communication skills by talking about space weather to school children and the public in general. This presentation will focus on ways to communicate space weather to wider audiences, particularly policymakers. It will also address the role researchers can play in this activity to help bridge the gap between the space science community and the public.

CCMC: bringing space weather awareness to the next generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chulaki, A.; Muglach, K.; Zheng, Y.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Taktakishvili, A.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Mendoza, A. M. M.; Thompson, B. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Pembroke, A. D.

2017-12-01

Making space weather an element of core education is critical for the future of the young field of space weather. Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is an interagency partnership established to aid the transition of modern space science models into space weather forecasting while supporting space science research. Additionally, over the past ten years it has established itself as a global space science education resource supporting undergraduate and graduate education and research, and spreading space weather awareness worldwide. A unique combination of assets, capabilities and close ties to the scientific and educational communities enable our small group to serve as a hub for rising generations of young space scientists and engineers. CCMC offers a variety of educational tools and resources publicly available online and providing access to the largest collection of modern space science models developed by the international research community. CCMC has revolutionized the way these simulations are utilized in classrooms settings, student projects, and scientific labs. Every year, this online system serves hundreds of students, educators and researchers worldwide. Another major CCMC asset is an expert space weather prototyping team primarily serving NASA's interplanetary space weather needs. Capitalizing on its unique capabilities and experiences, the team also provides in-depth space weather training to hundreds of students and professionals. One training module offers undergraduates an opportunity to actively engage in real-time space weather monitoring, analysis, forecasting, tools development and research, eventually serving remotely as NASA space weather forecasters. In yet another project, CCMC is collaborating with Hayden Planetarium and Linkoping University on creating a visualization platform for planetariums (and classrooms) to provide simulations of dynamic processes in the large domain stretching from the solar corona to the Earth's upper atmosphere, for near real-time and historical space weather events.

Squeezing of Particle Distributions by Expanding Magnetic Turbulence and Space Weather Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffolo, D. J.; Tooprakai, P.; Seripienlert, A.; Chuychai, P.; Matthaeus, W. H.

2014-12-01

Among the space weather effects due to gradual solar storms, greatly enhanced high-energy ion fluxes can cause radiation damage to satellites, spacecraft, and astronauts, which motivates examination of the transport of high-energy solar ions to Earth orbit. Ions of low kinetic energy (up to ˜2sim 2 MeV/nucleon) from impulsive solar events exhibit abrupt changes due to filamentation of magnetic connection from the Sun, indicating that anisotropic, field-aligned magnetic flux tube-like structures persist to Earth orbit. By employing a corresponding spherical two-component model of Alfv'enic (slab) and 2D magnetic fluctuations to trace simulated trajectories in the solar wind, we show that the distribution of high-energy (E≥1Egeq1 GeV) protons from gradual solar events is squeezed toward magnetic flux structures with a specific polarity due to the conical shape of the flux structures, which results from the expanding flow of the solar wind. It is difficult to observationally determine what polarity of flux structure the Earth is in at a given time, so this transport phenomenon contributes to event-to-event variability in ground level enhancements of GeV-range ions from solar storms, presenting a fundamental uncertainty in space weather prediction. Partially supported by the Thailand Research Fund, a Postdoctoral Fellowship from the Thailand Center of Excellence in Physics, a Research Fellowship from the Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, the U.S. NSF (AGS-1063439 and SHINE AGS-1156094), NASA (Heliophysics Theory NNX08AI47G & NNX11AJ44G), and the Solar Probe Plus/ISIS project. KEYWORDS: [7807] SPACE PLASMA PHYSICS / Charged particle motion and acceleration, [7863] SPACE PLASMA PHYSICS / Turbulence, [2118] INTERPLANETARY PHYSICS / Energetic particles, solar, [7984] SPACE WEATHER / Space radiation environment

NASA's Advancements in Space-Based Spectrometry Lead to Improvements in Weather Prediction and Understanding of Climate Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel

2010-01-01

AIRS is a precision state of the art High Spectral Resolution Multi-detector IR grating array spectrometer that was launched into a polar orbit on EOS Aqua in 2002. AIRS measures most of the infra-red spectrum with very low noise from 650/cm to 2660/cm with a resolving power of 2400 at a spatial resolution of 13 km. The objectives of AIRS were to perform accurate determination of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles in up to 90% partial cloud cover conditions for the purpose of improving numerical weather prediction and understanding climate processes. AIRS data has also been used to determine accurate trace gas profiles. A brief overview of the retrieval methodology used to analyze AIRS observations under partial cloud cover will be presented and sample results will be shown from the weather and climate perspectives.

Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, Phase II

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrett, Joe H., III

2008-01-01

Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Light Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) created a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display Systems (MIDDS) to indicate the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input.

GOES-R Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-17

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, Joseph A. Pica, director of the National Weather Service Office of Observations, speaks to the media during a mission briefing on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R). GOES-R is the first satellite in a series of next-generation GOES satellites for NOAA, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. It will launch to a geostationary orbit over the western hemisphere to provide images of storms and help meteorologists predict severe weather conditionals and develop long-range forecasts.

Understanding the evolution and propagation of coronal mass ejections and associated plasma sheaths in interplanetary space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, Phillip

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is an eruption of magnetized plasma from the Coronaof the Sun. Understanding the physical process of CMEs is a fundamental challenge in solarphysics, and is also of increasing importance for our technological society. CMEs are knownthe main driver of space weather that has adverse effects on satellites, power grids, com-munication and navigation systems and astronauts. Understanding and predicting CMEs is still in the early stage of research. In this dissertation, improved observational methods and advanced theoretical analysis are used to study CMEs. Unlike many studies in the past that treat CMEs as a single object, this study divides aCME into two separate components: the ejecta from the corona and the sheath region thatis the ambient plasma compressed by the shock/wave running ahead of the ejecta; bothstructures are geo-effective but evolve differently. Stereoscopic observations from multiplespacecraft, including STEREO and SOHO, are combined to provide a three-dimensionalgeometric reconstruction of the structures studied. True distances and velocities of CMEs are accurately determined, free of projection effects, and with continuous tracking from the low corona to 1 AU.To understand the kinematic evolution of CMEs, an advanced drag-based model (DBM) is proposed, with several improvements to the original DBM model. The new model varies the drag parameter with distance; the variation is constrained by thenecessary conservation of physical parameters. Second, the deviation of CME-nose from the Sun-Earth-line is taken into account. Third, the geometric correction of the shape of the ejecta front is considered, based on the assumption that the true front is a flattened croissant-shaped flux rope front. These improvements of the DBM model provide a framework for using measurement data to make accurate prediction of the arrival times of CME ejecta and sheaths. Using a set of seven events to test the model, it is found that the evolution of the ejecta front can be accurately predicted, with a slightly poorer performance on the sheath front. To improve the sheath prediction, the standoff-distance between the ejecta and the sheath front is used to model the evolution. The predicted arrivals of both the sheath and ejecta fronts at Earth are determined to within an average 3.5 hours and 1.5 hours of observed arrivals,respectively. These prediction errors show a significant improvement over predictions made by other researches. The results of this dissertation study demonstrate that accurate space weather prediction is possible, and also reveals what observations are needed in the future for realistic operational space weather prediction.

SPace weather applications in a technology-dependent society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngwira, C. M.

2017-12-01

Space weather can adversely key technology assets, such as, high-voltage electric power transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and communications systems that are critical to national security and economy. However, the term of "space weather" is not well known in our society. This presentation will introduce key concepts related to the space weather problem and show how space weather impacts our everyday life. The goal is to promote awareness among the general public. Also, this presentation will highlight how space weather is being used to promote STEM education for community college students through the NASA internship program.

Explicit simulation of ice particle habits in a Numerical Weather Prediction Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashino, Tempei

2007-05-01

This study developed a scheme for explicit simulation of ice particle habits in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models. The scheme is called Spectral Ice Habit Prediction System (SHIPS), and the goal is to retain growth history of ice particles in the Eulerian dynamics framework. It diagnoses characteristics of ice particles based on a series of particle property variables (PPVs) that reflect history of microphysieal processes and the transport between mass bins and air parcels in space. Therefore, categorization of ice particles typically used in bulk microphysical parameterization and traditional bin models is not necessary, so that errors that stem from the categorization can be avoided. SHIPS predicts polycrystals as well as hexagonal monocrystals based on empirically derived habit frequency and growth rate, and simulates the habit-dependent aggregation and riming processes by use of the stochastic collection equation with predicted PPVs. Idealized two dimensional simulations were performed with SHIPS in a NWP model. The predicted spatial distribution of ice particle habits and types, and evolution of particle size distributions showed good quantitative agreement with observation This comprehensive model of ice particle properties, distributions, and evolution in clouds can be used to better understand problems facing wide range of research disciplines, including microphysics processes, radiative transfer in a cloudy atmosphere, data assimilation, and weather modification.

Improving the Accuracy of a Heliocentric Potential (HCP) Prediction Model for the Aviation Radiation Dose

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Junga; Yoon, Kyoung-Won; Jo, Gyeongbok; Noh, Sung-Jun

2016-12-01

The space radiation dose over air routes including polar routes should be carefully considered, especially when space weather shows sudden disturbances such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, and accompanying solar energetic particle events. We recently established a heliocentric potential (HCP) prediction model for real-time operation of the CARI-6 and CARI-6M programs. Specifically, the HCP value is used as a critical input value in the CARI-6/6M programs, which estimate the aviation route dose based on the effective dose rate. The CARI-6/6M approach is the most widely used technique, and the programs can be obtained from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). However, HCP values are given at a one month delay on the FAA official webpage, which makes it difficult to obtain real-time information on the aviation route dose. In order to overcome this critical limitation regarding the time delay for space weather customers, we developed a HCP prediction model based on sunspot number variations (Hwang et al. 2015). In this paper, we focus on improvements to our HCP prediction model and update it with neutron monitoring data. We found that the most accurate method to derive the HCP value involves (1) real-time daily sunspot assessments, (2) predictions of the daily HCP by our prediction algorithm, and (3) calculations of the resultant daily effective dose rate. Additionally, we also derived the HCP prediction algorithm in this paper by using ground neutron counts. With the compensation stemming from the use of ground neutron count data, the newly developed HCP prediction model was improved.

New Mineral Proves and Old Idea about Space Weathering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, L. M. V.

2004-07-01

Discovered in a lunar meteorite, a new mineral named hapkeite honors the scientist, Bruce Hapke (Emeritis Professor at University of Pittsburgh), who nearly 30 years ago predicted the importance of vaporization as one of the processes in space weathering. The new iron silicide mineral (Fe2Si) was announced by the research team of Mahesh Anand (formerly at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville and now at the Natural History Museum, London), Larry Taylor (University of Tennessee, Knoxville), Mikhail Nazarov (Vernadsky Institute of Geochemistry and Analytical Chemistry, Moscow), Jinfu Shu, Ho-kwang Mao, and Russell Hemley (Carnegie Institution of Washington). This mineral likely formed by impact vaporization of the lunar soil and subsequent condensation of the iron and silicon into tiny metal grains. The researchers conclude that Fe-Si phases are more common in the lunar soil than previously thought. It is nanophase-sized Fe0, these Fe-Si phases, and other space weathering products that profoundly affect the optical properties of the lunar soil at visible and near infrared wavelengths and must be taken into account when interpreting remote sensing data of the Moon.

Workshop Builds Strategies to Address Global Positioning System Vulnerabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Genene

2011-01-01

When we examine the impacts of space weather on society, do we really understand the risks? Can past experiences reliably predict what will happen in the future? As the complexity of technology increases, there is the potential for it to become more fragile, allowing for a single point of failure to bring down the entire system. Take the Global Positioning System (GPS) as an example. GPS positioning, navigation, and timing have become an integral part of daily life, supporting transportation and communications systems vital to the aviation, merchant marine, cargo, cellular phone, surveying, and oil exploration industries. Everyday activities such as banking, mobile phone operations, and even the control of power grids are facilitated by the accurate timing provided by GPS. Understanding the risks of space weather to GPS and the many economic sectors reliant upon it, as well as how to build resilience, was the focus of a policy workshop organized by the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and held on 13-14 October 2010 in Washington, D. C. The workshop brought together a select group of policy makers, space weather scientists, and GPS experts and users.

The Role of Theory and Modeling in the International Living with a Star Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hesse, M.

2004-01-01

Today, theory and modeling play a critical role in our quest to understand the connection between solar eruptive phenomena, and their impacts in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth space environment. This new role is based on two developments, one related to the goal of basic physical understanding, and the other to space weather-related applications. When targeting physical our focus is shifting away from investigations aiming at basic discoveries, to missions and studies that address our basic understanding of processes we know to be important. For these studies, theory and models provide physical explanations that need to be verified or falsified by empirical evidence. Within this paradigm, a much more tight integration between theory modeling, and space flight mission design and execution is not only beneficial, but essential. One of the prime objectives of space weather research, on the other hand, is the prediction of space environmental conditions for the benefit of humans and their assets in near-Earth space and on the ground, as well as on solar system bodies like Mars that are of interest to exploration by humans. By its very nature, prediction requires modeling, which, in turn, requires understanding. We will present an overview of the role of theory and modeling within the International Living With a Star program. Specifically, we will focus on an assessment of present-day and future capabilities, as well as on strategies for tight integration of theory and modeling in space science investigations.

Space weathering on airless planetary bodies: clues from the lunar mineral hapkeite.

PubMed

Anand, Mahesh; Taylor, Lawrence A; Nazarov, Mikhail A; Shu, J; Mao, H-K; Hemley, Russell J

2004-05-04

Physical and chemical reactions occurring as a result of the high-velocity impacts of meteorites and micrometeorites and of cosmic rays and solar-wind particles are major causes of space weathering on airless planetary bodies, such as the Moon, Mercury, and asteroids. These weathering processes are responsible for the formation of their regolith and soil. We report here the natural occurrence of the mineral hapkeite, a Fe2Si phase, and other associated Fe-Si phases (iron-silicides) in a regolith breccia clast of a lunar highland meteorite. These Fe-Si phases are considered to be a direct product of impact-induced, vapor-phase deposition in the lunar soil, all part of space weathering. We have used an in situ synchrotron energy-dispersive, single-crystal x-ray diffraction technique to confirm the crystal structure of hapkeite as similar to the structure of synthetic Fe2Si. This mineral, hapkeite, is named after Bruce Hapke of the University of Pittsburgh, who predicted the presence and importance of vapor-deposited coatings on lunar soil grains some 30 years ago. We propose that this mineral and other Fe-Si phases are probably more common in the lunar regolith than previously thought and are directly related to the formation of vapor-deposited, nanophase elemental iron in the lunar soils.

Space-borne profiling of atmospheric thermodynamic variables with raman lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Girolamo, Paolo; Behrendt, Andreas; Wulfmeyer, Volker

2018-04-01

The performance of a space-borne water vapour and temperature Raman lidar has been simulated, with a specific attention to the Earth Explorer Missions in the frame of ESA's Living Planet Program. We report simulations under a variety of atmospheric scenarios, demonstrating the capability of a space Raman lidar to provide global-scale water vapour and temperature measurements in the troposphere with an accuracy fulfilling most observational requirements for numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate research.

Comparative Science and Space Weather Around the Heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grande, Manuel; Andre, Nicolas; COSPAR/ILWS Roadmap Team

2016-10-01

Space weather refers to the variable state of the coupled space environment related to changing conditions on the Sun and in the terrestrial atmosphere. The presentation will focus on the critical missing knowledge or observables needed to significantly advance our modelling and forecasting capabilities throughout the solar system putting these in perspective to the recommendations in the recent COSPAR/ILWS roadmap. The COSPAR/ILWS RoadMap focuses on high-priority challenges in key areas of research leading to a better understanding of the space environment and a demonstrable improvement in the provision of timely, reliable information pertinent to effects on civilian space- and ground-based systems, for all stakeholders around the world. The RoadMap prioritizes those advances that can be made on short, intermediate and decadal time scales, identifying gaps and opportunities from a predominantly, but not exclusively, geocentric perspective. While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been concerned to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an extreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. One initiative is that under Horizon 2020, Europlanet RI will set up a Europlanet Planetary Space Weather Service (PSWS). PSWS will make five entirely new `toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: - a General planetary space weather toolkit; Mars (in support of the ESA ExoMars missions to be launched in 2016 and 2018); comets (building on the success of the ESA Rosetta mission); outer planets (in preparation for the ESA JUICE mission to be launched in 2022), as well as a novel "event-diary" toolkit aiming at predicting and detecting planetary events like meteor impacts

Comparative science and space weather around the heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grande, Manuel

2016-07-01

Space weather refers to the variable state of the coupled space environment related to changing conditions on the Sun and in the terrestrial atmosphere. The presentation will focus on the critical missing knowledge or observables needed to significantly advance our modelling and forecasting capabilities throughout the solar system putting these in perspective to the recommendations in the recent COSPAR/ILWS roadmap. The COSPAR/ILWS RoadMap focuses on high-priority challenges in key areas of research leading to a better understanding of the space environment and a demonstrable improvement in the provision of timely, reliable information pertinent to effects on civilian space- and ground-based systems, for all stakeholders around the world. The RoadMap prioritizes those advances that can be made on short, intermediate and decadal time scales, identifying gaps and opportunities from a predominantly, but not exclusively, geocentric perspective. While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been confined to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an extreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. One initiative is that under Horizon 2020, Europlanet RI will set up a Europlanet Planetary Space Weather Service (PSWS). PSWS will make five entirely new 'toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: - a General planetary space weather toolkit; Mars (in support of the ESA ExoMars missions to be launched in 2016 and 2018); comets (building on the success of the ESA Rosetta mission); outer planets (in preparation for the ESA JUICE mission to be launched in 2022), as well as a novel "event-diary" toolkit aiming at predicting and detecting planetary events like meteor impacts

Impact of Cloud Analysis on Numerical Weather Prediction in the Galician Region of Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souto, M. J.; Balseiro, C. F.; Pérez-Muñuzuri, V.; Xue, M.; Brewster, K.

2003-01-01

The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) is applied to operational numerical weather prediction in Galicia, northwest Spain. The model is run daily for 72-h forecasts at a 10-km horizontal spacing. Located on the northwest coast of Spain and influenced by the Atlantic weather systems, Galicia has a high percentage (nearly 50%) of rainy days per year. For these reasons, the precipitation processes and the initialization of moisture and cloud fields are very important. Even though the ARPS model has a sophisticated data analysis system (`ADAS') that includes a 3D cloud analysis package, because of operational constraints, the current forecast starts from the 12-h forecast of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Aviation Model (AVN). Still, procedures from the ADAS cloud analysis are being used to construct the cloud fields based on AVN data and then are applied to initialize the microphysical variables in ARPS. Comparisons of the ARPS predictions with local observations show that ARPS can predict very well both the daily total precipitation and its spatial distribution. ARPS also shows skill in predicting heavy rains and high winds, as observed during November 2000, and especially in the prediction of the 5 November 2000 storm that caused widespread wind and rain damage in Galicia. It is demonstrated that the cloud analysis contributes to the success of the precipitation forecasts.

The Applied Meteorology Unit: Nineteen Years Successfully Transitioning Research into Operations for America's Space Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madura, John T.; Bauman, William H.; Merceret, Francis J.; Roeder, William P.; Brody, Frank C.; Hagemeyer, Bartlett C.

2010-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) provides technology transition and technique development to improve operational weather support to the Space Shuttle and the entire American space program. The AMU is funded and managed by NASA and operated by a contractor that provides five meteorologists with a diverse mix of advanced degrees, operational experience, and associated skills including data processing, statistics, and the development of graphical user interfaces. The AMU's primary customers are the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron at Patrick Air Force Base, the National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group at NASA Johnson Space Center, and the National Weather Service Melbourne FL Forecast Office. The AMU has transitioned research into operations for nineteen years and worked on a wide range of topics, including new forecasting techniques for lightning probability, synoptic peak winds,.convective winds, and summer severe weather; satellite tools to predict anvil cloud trajectories and evaluate camera line of sight for Space Shuttle launch; optimized radar scan strategies; evaluated and implemented local numerical models; evaluated weather sensors; and many more. The AMU has completed 113 projects with 5 more scheduled to be completed by the end of 2010. During this rich history, the AMU and its customers have learned many lessons on how to effectively transition research into operations. Some of these lessons learned include collocating with the operational customer and periodically visiting geographically separated customers, operator submitted projects, consensus tasking process, use of operator primary advocates for each project, customer AMU liaisons with experience in both operations and research, flexibility in adapting the project plan based on lessons learned during the project, and incorporating training and other transition assistance into the project plans. Operator involvement has been critical to the AMU's remarkable success and many awards from NASA, the National Weather Association, and two citations from the Navy's Center of Excellence for Best Manufacturing Practices. This paper will present the AMU's proven methods and explain how they may be applied by other organizations to effectively transition research into operations.

Heliophysics Science and the Moon: Potential Solar and Space Physics Science for Lunar Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

This report addresses both these features new science enabled by NASAs exploration initiative and enabling science that is critical to ensuring a safe return to the Moon and onward to Mars. The areas of interest are structured into four main themes: Theme 1: Heliophysics Science of the Moon Studies of the Moons unique magnetodynamic plasma environment. Theme 2: Space Weather, Safeguarding the Journey Studies aimed at developing a predictive capability for space weather hazards. Theme 3: The Moon as a Historical Record Studies of the variation of the lunar regolith to uncover the history of the Sun, solar system, local interstellar medium, galaxy, and universe. Theme 4: The Moon as a Heliophysics Science Platform Using the unique environment of the lunar surface as a platform to provide observations beneficial to advancing heliophysics science.

Deflected Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections: One of the Key Issues in Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Shen, C.; Zhuang, B.; Pan, Z.

2016-12-01

As the most important driver of severe space weather, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their geoeffectiveness have been studied intensively. Previous statistical studies have shown that not all the front-side halo CMEs are geoeffective, and not all non-recurrent geomagnetic storms can be tracked back to a CME. These phenomena may cause some failed predictions of the geoeffectiveness of CMEs. The recent notable event exhibiting such a failure was on 2015 March 15 when a fast CME originated from the west hemisphere. Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) of NOAA initially forecasted that the CME would at most cause a very minor geomagnetic disturbance labeled as G1. However, the CME produced the largest geomagnetic storm so far, at G4 level with the provisional Dst value of -223 nT, in the current solar cycle 24 [e.g., Kataoka et al., 2015; Wang et al., 2016]. Such an unexpected phenomenon naturally raises the first question for the forecasting of the geoeffectiveness of a CME, i.e., whether or not a CME will hit the Earth even though we know the source location and initial kinematic properties of the CME. A full understanding of the propagation trajectory, e.g., the deflected propagation, of a CME from the Sun to 1 AU is the key. With a few cases, we show the importance of the deflection effect in the space weather forecasting. An automated CME arrival forecasting system containing a deflected propagation model is presented. References:[1] Kataoka, R., D. Shiota, E. Kilpua, and K. Keika, Pileup accident hypothesis of magnetic storm on 17 March 2015, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 5155-5161, 2015.[2] Wang, Yuming, Quanhao Zhang, Jiajia Liu, Chenglong Shen, Fang Shen, Zicai Yang, T. Zic, B. Vrsnak, D. F. Webb, Rui Liu, S. Wang, Jie Zhang, Q. Hu, and B. Zhuang, On the Propagation of a Geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection during March 15 - 17, 2015, J. Geophys. Res., accepted, doi:10.1002/2016JA022924, 2016.

A Milestone in Commercial Space Weather: USTAR Center for Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Thompson, D. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Gardner, L. C.

2009-12-01

As of 2009, Utah State University (USU) hosts a new organization to develop commercial space weather applications using funding that has been provided by the State of Utah’s Utah Science Technology and Research (USTAR) initiative. The USTAR Center for Space Weather (UCSW) is located on the USU campus in Logan, Utah and is developing innovative applications for mitigating adverse space weather effects in technological systems. Space weather’s effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the Sun’s photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere is the key region that affects communication and navigation systems. The UCSW has developed products for users of systems that are affected by space weather-driven ionospheric changes. For example, on September 1, 2009 USCW released, in conjunction with Space Environment Technologies, the world’s first real-time space weather via an iPhone app. Space WX displays the real-time, current global ionosphere total electron content along with its space weather drivers; it is available through the Apple iTunes store and is used around the planet. The Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system is now being run operationally in real-time at UCSW with the continuous ingestion of hundreds of global data streams to dramatically improve the ionosphere’s characterization. We discuss not only funding and technical advances that have led to current products but also describe the direction for UCSW that includes partnering opportunities for moving commercial space weather into fully automated specification and forecasting over the next half decade.

NASA Space Environments Technical Discipline Team Space Weather Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minow, J. I.; Nicholas, A. C.; Parker, L. N.; Xapsos, M.; Walker, P. W.; Stauffer, C.

2017-12-01

The Space Environment Technical Discipline Team (TDT) is a technical organization led by NASA's Technical Fellow for Space Environments that supports NASA's Office of the Chief Engineer through the NASA Engineering and Safety Center. The Space Environments TDT conducts independent technical assessments related to the space environment and space weather impacts on spacecraft for NASA programs and provides technical expertise to NASA management and programs where required. This presentation will highlight the status of applied space weather activities within the Space Environment TDT that support development of operational space weather applications and a better understanding of the impacts of space weather on space systems. We will first discuss a tool that has been developed for evaluating space weather launch constraints that are used to protect launch vehicles from hazardous space weather. We then describe an effort to better characterize three-dimensional radiation transport for CubeSat spacecraft and processing of micro-dosimeter data from the International Space Station which the team plans to make available to the space science community. Finally, we will conclude with a quick description of an effort to maintain access to the real-time solar wind data provided by the Advanced Composition Explorer satellite at the Sun-Earth L1 point.

Locations Where Space Weather Energy Impacts the Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sojka, Jan J.

2017-11-01

In this review we consider aspects of space weather that can have a severe impact on the terrestrial atmosphere. We begin by identifying the pre-conditioning role of the Sun on the temperature and density of the upper atmosphere. This effect we define as "space climatology". Space weather effects are then defined as severe departures from this state of the atmospheric energy and density. Three specific forms of space weather are reviewed and we show that each generates severe space weather impacts. The three forms of space weather being considered are the solar photon flux (flares), particle precipitation (aurora), and electromagnetic Joule heating (magnetosphere-ionospheric (M-I) coupling). We provide an overview of the physical processes associated with each of these space weather forms. In each case a very specific altitude range exists over which the processes can most effectively impact the atmosphere. Our argument is that a severe change in the local atmosphere's state leads to atmospheric heating and other dynamic changes at locations beyond the input heat source region. All three space weather forms have their greatest atmospheric impact between 100 and 130 km. This altitude region comprises the transition between the atmosphere's mesosphere and thermosphere and is the ionosphere's E-region. This region is commonly referred to as the Space Atmosphere Interaction Region (SAIR). The SAIR also acts to insulate the lower atmosphere from the space weather impact of energy deposition. A similar space weather zone would be present in atmospheres of other planets and exoplanets.

New Space Weather Forecasting at NOAA with Michigan's Geospace Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, H. J.; Millward, G. H.; Balch, C. C.; Cash, M. D.; Onsager, T. G.; Toth, G.; Welling, D. T.; Gombosi, T. I.

2016-12-01

We will present first results from the University of Michigan's Geospace model that is transitioning, during 2016, from a research capability into operations at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. The first generation of space weather products from this model will be described. These initial products will support power grid operators, as well as other users, with both global and regional, short-term predictions of geomagnetic activity. The Geospace model is a coupled system including three components: the BATS-R-US magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the magnetosphere; the Ridley ionosphere electrodynamics model (RIM); and the Rice Convection Model (RCM), an inner magnetosphere ring-current model developed at Rice University. The model is driven by solar wind data from a satellite at L1 (now NOAA's DSCOVR satellite) and F10.7, a proxy for solar extreme ultra-violet radiation. The Geospace model runs continuously, driven by the 1-minute cadence real-time L1 data that is propagated to the inflow boundary of the MHD code. The model steps back to an earlier time and then continues forward if high-speed solar wind overtakes slower solar wind. This mode of operation is unique among the models at NOAA's National Center for Environment Prediction's Central Operations (NCO), and it is also different from the typical scientific simulation mode. All of this work has involved 3D graphical model displays and validation tools that are being developed to support forecasters and web-based external users. Lessons learned during the transition process will be described, as well as the iterative process that occurs between Research and Operations and the scientific challenges for future model and product improvements.

NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.

2012-01-01

The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

Space Weather Models at the CCMC And Their Capabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hesse, Michael; Rastatter, Lutz; MacNeice, Peter; Kuznetsova, Masha

2007-01-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second focus of CCMC activities is on validation and verification of space weather models, and on the transition of appropriate models to space weather forecast centers. As part of the latter activity, the CCMC develops real-time simulation systems that stress models through routine execution. A by-product of these real-time calculations is the ability to derive model products, which may be useful for space weather operators. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of the community-provided, space weather-relevant, model suite, which resides at CCMC. We will discuss current capabilities, and analyze expected future developments of space weather related modeling.

Partnerships form the basis for implementing a National Space Weather Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spann, James F.; Giles, Barbara L.

2017-08-01

The 2017 Space Weather Enterprise Forum, held June 27, focused on the vital role of partnerships in order to establish an effective and successful national space weather program. Experts and users from the many government agencies, industry, academia, and policy makers gathered to discuss space weather impacts and mitigation strategies, the relevant services and supporting infrastructure, and the vital role cross-cutting partnerships must play for successful implementation of the National Space Weather Action Plan.

Near Real Time Data for Operational Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, T. E.

2014-12-01

Space weather operations presents unique challenges for data systems and providers. Space weather events evolve more quickly than terrestrial weather events. While terrestrial weather occurs on timescales of minutes to hours, space weather storms evolve on timescales of seconds to minutes. For example, the degradation of the High Frequency Radio communications between the ground and commercial airlines is nearly instantaneous when a solar flare occurs. Thus the customer is observing impacts at the same time that the operational forecast center is seeing the event unfold. The diversity and spatial scale of the space weather system is such that no single observation can capture the salient features. The vast space that encompasses space weather and the scarcity of observations further exacerbates the situation and make each observation even more valuable. The physics of interplanetary space, through which many major storms propagate, is very different from the physics of the ionosphere where most of the impacts are felt. And while some observations can be made from ground-based observatories, many of the most critical data comes from satellites, often in unique orbits far from Earth. In this presentation, I will describe some of the more important sources and types of data that feed into the operational alerts, watches, and warnings of space weather storms. Included will be a discussion of some of the new space weather forecast models and the data challenges that they bring forward.

Early Benchmarks of Product Generation Capabilities of the GOES-R Ground System for Operational Weather Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalluri, S. N.; Haman, B.; Vititoe, D.

2014-12-01

The ground system under development for Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) series of weather satellite has completed a key milestone in implementing the science algorithms that process raw sensor data to higher level products in preparation for launch. Real time observations from GOES-R are expected to make significant contributions to Earth and space weather prediction, and there are stringent requirements to product weather products at very low latency to meet NOAA's operational needs. Simulated test data from all the six GOES-R sensors are being processed by the system to test and verify performance of the fielded system. Early results show that the system development is on track to meet functional and performance requirements to process science data. Comparison of science products generated by the ground system from simulated data with those generated by the algorithm developers show close agreement among data sets which demonstrates that the algorithms are implemented correctly. Successful delivery of products to AWIPS and the Product Distribution and Access (PDA) system from the core system demonstrate that the external interfaces are working.

The Future of Operational Space Weather Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, T. E.

2015-12-01

We review the current state of operational space weather observations, the requirements for new or evolved space weather forecasting capablities, and the relevant sections of the new National strategy for space weather developed by the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Task Force chartered by the Office of Science and Technology Policy of the White House. Based on this foundation, we discuss future space missions such as the NOAA space weather mission to the L1 Lagrangian point planned for the 2021 time frame and its synergy with an L5 mission planned for the same period; the space weather capabilities of the upcoming GOES-R mission, as well as GOES-Next possiblities; and the upcoming COSMIC-2 mission for ionospheric observations. We also discuss the needs for ground-based operational networks to supply mission critical and/or backup space weather observations including the NSF GONG solar optical observing network, the USAF SEON solar radio observing network, the USGS real-time magnetometer network, the USCG CORS network of GPS receivers, and the possibility of operationalizing the world-wide network of neutron monitors for real-time alerts of ground-level radiation events.

Verification of real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wold, Alexandra M.; Mays, M. Leila; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Jian, Lan K.; Odstrcil, Dusan; MacNeice, Peter

2018-03-01

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in situ interplanetary coronal mass ejection leading edge measurements at Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B), and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010 and December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 ± 0.9 h, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 h. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 h in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

Space Weather Forecasting at the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nava, O.

2012-12-01

The Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) at Vandenberg Air Force Base is the command and control focal point for the operational employment of worldwide joint space forces. The JSpOC focuses on planning and executing US Strategic Command's Joint Functional Component Command for Space (JFCC SPACE) mission. Through the JSpOC, the Weather Specialty Team (WST) monitors space and terrestrial weather effects, plans and assesses weather impacts on military operations, and provides reach-back support for deployed theater solar and terrestrial needs. This presentation will detail how space weather affects the JSpOC mission set and how the scientific community can enhance the WST's capabilities and effectiveness.

The UCSD Time-dependent Tomography and IPS use for Exploring Space Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H. S.; Jackson, B. V.; Buffington, A.; Hick, P. P.; Tokumaru, M.; Odstrcil, D.; Kim, J.; Yun, J.

2016-12-01

The University of California, San Diego (UCSD) time-dependent, iterative, kinematic reconstruction technique has been used and expanded upon for over two decades. It provides some of the most-accurate predictions and three-dimensional (3D) analyses of heliospheric solar-wind parameters now available using interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data. The parameters provided include reconstructions of velocity, density, and three-component magnetic fields. Precise time-dependent results are now obtained at any solar distance in the inner heliosphere using ISEE (formerly STELab), Japan, IPS data sets, and can be used to drive 3D-MHD models including ENLIL. Using IPS data, these reconstructions provide a real-time prediction of the global solar wind parameters across the whole heliosphere with a time cadence of about one day (see http://ips.ucsd.edu). Here we compare the results (such as density, velocity, and magnetic fields) from the IPS tomography with different in-situ measurements and discuss several specific space weather events that demonstrate the issues resulting from these analyses.

Increasing horizontal resolution in numerical weather prediction and climate simulations: illusion or panacea?

PubMed

Wedi, Nils P

2014-06-28

The steady path of doubling the global horizontal resolution approximately every 8 years in numerical weather prediction (NWP) at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts may be substantially altered with emerging novel computing architectures. It coincides with the need to appropriately address and determine forecast uncertainty with increasing resolution, in particular, when convective-scale motions start to be resolved. Blunt increases in the model resolution will quickly become unaffordable and may not lead to improved NWP forecasts. Consequently, there is a need to accordingly adjust proven numerical techniques. An informed decision on the modelling strategy for harnessing exascale, massively parallel computing power thus also requires a deeper understanding of the sensitivity to uncertainty--for each part of the model--and ultimately a deeper understanding of multi-scale interactions in the atmosphere and their numerical realization in ultra-high-resolution NWP and climate simulations. This paper explores opportunities for substantial increases in the forecast efficiency by judicious adjustment of the formal accuracy or relative resolution in the spectral and physical space. One path is to reduce the formal accuracy by which the spectral transforms are computed. The other pathway explores the importance of the ratio used for the horizontal resolution in gridpoint space versus wavenumbers in spectral space. This is relevant for both high-resolution simulations as well as ensemble-based uncertainty estimation. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Deflected Propagation of CMEs and Its Importance on the CME Arrival Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuming; Zhuang, Bin; Shen, Chenglong

2017-04-01

As the most important driver of severe space weather, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their geoeffectiveness have been studied intensively. Previous statistical studies have shown that not all the front-side halo CMEs are geoeffective, and not all non-recurrent geomagnetic storms can be tracked back to a CME. These phenomena may cause some failed predictions of the geoeffectiveness of CMEs. The recent notable event exhibiting such a failure was on 2015 March 15 when a fast CME originated from the west hemisphere. Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) of NOAA initially forecasted that the CME would at most cause a very minor geomagnetic disturbance labeled as G1. However, the CME produced the largest geomagnetic storm so far, at G4 level with the provisional Dst value of -223 nT, in the current solar cycle 24 [e.g., Kataoka et al., 2015; Wang et al., 2016]. Such an unexpected phenomenon naturally raises the first question for the forecasting of the geoeffectiveness of a CME, i.e., whether or not a CME will hit the Earth even though we know the source location and initial kinematic properties of the CME. A full understanding of the propagation trajectory, e.g., the deflected propagation, of a CME from the Sun to 1 AU is the key. With a few cases, we show the importance of the deflection effect in the space weather forecasting. An automated CME arrival forecasting system containing a deflected propagation model is presented.

Collaboration Between Government and Commercial Space Weather Information Providers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intriligator, Devrie

2007-10-01

Many systems and situations require up-to-date space weather information. These include navigation systems in cars, boats, and commercial freight; the specific location information needed for construction and oil drilling; communications; airline navigation; avionic systems; and passengers and personnel on polar airline flights. Thus, as the world's industries become increasingly more reliant on satellite data and more vulnerable to space weather conditions, new collaborations will have to be formed between commercial providers of space weather information and the government scientists who monitor space weather.

Image-based optimization of coronal magnetic field models for improved space weather forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uritsky, V. M.; Davila, J. M.; Jones, S. I.; MacNeice, P. J.

2017-12-01

The existing space weather forecasting frameworks show a significant dependence on the accuracy of the photospheric magnetograms and the extrapolation models used to reconstruct the magnetic filed in the solar corona. Minor uncertainties in the magnetic field magnitude and direction near the Sun, when propagated through the heliosphere, can lead to unacceptible prediction errors at 1 AU. We argue that ground based and satellite coronagraph images can provide valid geometric constraints that could be used for improving coronal magnetic field extrapolation results, enabling more reliable forecasts of extreme space weather events such as major CMEs. In contrast to the previously developed loop segmentation codes designed for detecting compact closed-field structures above solar active regions, we focus on the large-scale geometry of the open-field coronal regions up to 1-2 solar radii above the photosphere. By applying the developed image processing techniques to high-resolution Mauna Loa Solar Observatory images, we perform an optimized 3D B-line tracing for a full Carrington rotation using the magnetic field extrapolation code developed S. Jones at al. (ApJ 2016, 2017). Our tracing results are shown to be in a good qualitative agreement with the large-scale configuration of the optical corona, and lead to a more consistent reconstruction of the large-scale coronal magnetic field geometry, and potentially more accurate global heliospheric simulation results. Several upcoming data products for the space weather forecasting community will be also discussed.

Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability

DOE PAGES

Deremble, Bruno; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

2009-10-27

In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model’s fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple ''weather regimes.'' To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, ''bred vectors'' and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemblemore » forecasts issued from clouds (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.« less

Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability.

PubMed

Deremble, Bruno; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

2009-12-01

In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model's fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple "weather regimes." To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, "bred vectors" and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemble forecasts issued from "clouds" (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.

Community Coordinated Modeling Center: A Powerful Resource in Space Science and Space Weather Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chulaki, A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; MacNeice, P. J.; Shim, J. S.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Mendoza, A. M. M.; Zheng, Y.; Mullinix, R.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Pembroke, A. D.; Wiegand, C.

2015-12-01

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a NASA affiliated interagency partnership with the primary goal of aiding the transition of modern space science models into space weather forecasting while supporting space science research. Additionally, over the past ten years it has established itself as a global space science education resource supporting undergraduate and graduate education and research, and spreading space weather awareness worldwide. A unique combination of assets, capabilities and close ties to the scientific and educational communities enable this small group to serve as a hub for raising generations of young space scientists and engineers. CCMC resources are publicly available online, providing unprecedented global access to the largest collection of modern space science models (developed by the international research community). CCMC has revolutionized the way simulations are utilized in classrooms settings, student projects, and scientific labs and serves hundreds of educators, students and researchers every year. Another major CCMC asset is an expert space weather prototyping team primarily serving NASA's interplanetary space weather needs. Capitalizing on its unrivaled capabilities and experiences, the team provides in-depth space weather training to students and professionals worldwide, and offers an amazing opportunity for undergraduates to engage in real-time space weather monitoring, analysis, forecasting and research. In-house development of state-of-the-art space weather tools and applications provides exciting opportunities to students majoring in computer science and computer engineering fields to intern with the software engineers at the CCMC while also learning about the space weather from the NASA scientists.

Space Weather Monitoring for ISS Space Environments Engineering and Crew Auroral Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minow, Joseph; Pettit, Donald R.; Hartman, William A.

2012-01-01

Today s presentation describes how real time space weather data is used by the International Space Station (ISS) space environments team to obtain data on auroral charging of the ISS vehicle and support ISS crew efforts to obtain auroral images from orbit. Topics covered include: Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU), . Auroral charging of ISS, . Real ]time space weather monitoring resources, . Examples of ISS auroral charging captured from space weather events, . ISS crew observations of aurora.

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, Kristin Calhoun, a research scientist with NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory, speaks to members of the media at a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, Jim Roberts, a scientist with the Earth System Research Laboratory's Office of Atmospheric Research for NOAA, speaks to members of the media at a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

GOES-S NASA Social

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-28

Gabriel Rodriguez-Mena, a United Launch Alliance systems test engineer, speaks to members of social media in the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium. The briefing focused on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

Browsing Space Weather Data and Models with the Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddox, Marlo M.; Mullinix, Richard E.; Berrios, David H.; Hesse, Michael; Rastaetter, Lutz; Pulkkinen, Antti; Hourcle, Joseph A.; Thompson, Barbara J.

2011-01-01

The Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System is a comprehensive web-based platform for space weather information that combines data from solar, heliospheric and geospace observatories with forecasts based on the most advanced space weather models. The iSWA system collects, generates, and presents a wide array of space weather resources in an intuitive, user-configurable, and adaptable format - thus enabling users to respond to current and future space weather impacts as well as enabling post-impact analysis. iSWA currently provides over 200 data and modeling products, and features a variety of tools that allow the user to browse, combine, and examine data and models from various sources. This presentation will consist of a summary of the iSWA products and an overview of the customizable user interfaces, and will feature several tutorial demonstrations highlighting the interactive tools and advanced capabilities.

Air-Traffic Controllers Evaluate The Descent Advisor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tobias, Leonard; Volckers, Uwe; Erzberger, Heinz

1992-01-01

Report describes study of Descent Advisor algorithm: software automation aid intended to assist air-traffic controllers in spacing traffic and meeting specified times or arrival. Based partly on mathematical models of weather conditions and performances of aircraft, it generates suggested clearances, including top-of-descent points and speed-profile data to attain objectives. Study focused on operational characteristics with specific attention to how it can be used for prediction, spacing, and metering.

Concept for an International Standard related to Space Weather Effects on Space Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W. Kent; Tomky, Alyssa

There is great interest in developing an international standard related to space weather in order to specify the tools and parameters needed for space systems operations. In particular, a standard is important for satellite operators who may not be familiar with space weather. In addition, there are others who participate in space systems operations that would also benefit from such a document. For example, the developers of software systems that provide LEO satellite orbit determination, radio communication availability for scintillation events (GEO-to-ground L and UHF bands), GPS uncertainties, and the radiation environment from ground-to-space for commercial space tourism. These groups require recent historical data, current epoch specification, and forecast of space weather events into their automated or manual systems. Other examples are national government agencies that rely on space weather data provided by their organizations such as those represented in the International Space Environment Service (ISES) group of 14 national agencies. Designers, manufacturers, and launchers of space systems require real-time, operational space weather parameters that can be measured, monitored, or built into automated systems. Thus, a broad scope for the document will provide a useful international standard product to a variety of engineering and science domains. The structure of the document should contain a well-defined scope, consensus space weather terms and definitions, and internationally accepted descriptions of the main elements of space weather, its sources, and its effects upon space systems. Appendices will be useful for describing expanded material such as guidelines on how to use the standard, how to obtain specific space weather parameters, and short but detailed descriptions such as when best to use some parameters and not others; appendices provide a path for easily updating the standard since the domain of space weather is rapidly changing with new advances in scientific and engineering understanding. We present a draft outline that can be used as the basis for such a standard.

Sensitivity of Earth Wheat Markets to Space Weather: Comparative Analysis based on data from Medieval European Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pustil'Nik, Lev

We consider a problem of the possible influence of unfavorable states of the space weather on agriculture markets through the chain of connections: "space weather"-"earth weather"- "agriculture crops"-"price reaction". We show that new manifestations of "space weather"- "earth weather" relations discovered in the recent time allow revising a wide range of the expected solar-terrestrial connections. In the previous works we proposed possible mechanisms of wheat market reaction on the specific unfavorable states of space weather in the form of price bursts and price asymmetry. We point out that implementation of considered "price reaction scenarios" is possible only for the case of simultaneous realization of several necessary conditions: high sensitivity of local earth weather in the selected region to space weather; the state of "high risk agriculture" in the selected agriculture zone; high sensitivity of agricultural market to a possible deficit of yield. Results of our previous works (I, II), including application of this approach to the Medieval England wheat market (1250-1700) and to the modern USA durum market (1910-1992), showed that connection between wheat price bursts and space weather state in these cases was absolutely real. The aim of the present work is to answer the question why wheat markets in one selected region may be sensitive to a space weather factor, while in other regions wheat markets demonstrate absolutely indifferent reaction on the space weather. For this aim, we consider dependence of sensitivity of wheat markets to space weather as a function of their location in different climatic zones of Europe. We analyze a database of 95 European wheat markets from 14 countries for the 600-year period (1260-1912). We show that the observed sensitivity of wheat markets to space weather effects is controlled, first of all, by a type of predominant climate in different zones of agricultural production. Wheat markets in the Northern and, partly, in Central Europe (England, Holland, Belgium) show high sensitivity to space weather in minimum states of solar activity, when excess of the high energy cosmic ray stimulate additional cloudiness and precipitation. In the same time, wheat markets in the Southern Europe (Spain, Italy) show high sensitivity to space weather state in the opposite (maximum) phase of solar activity when a deficit of cosmic ray entering into the earth atmosphere leads to decrease of cloudiness and to increase of probability of drought weather periods. We demonstrate that the large part of markets in the Central Europe zone show absence of any effects of sensitivity to space weather state and show that this North-South asymmetry is in good accordance with the suggested model of expected wheat market reaction. We discuss possible increasing of sensitivity of wheat markets to space weather effects under conditions of fast and drastic change of modern climate with a shift of numerous agriculture regions to the state of "high risk agriculture zone".

Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model for Weather Support to the United States Space Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manobianco, John; Nutter, Paul

1997-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) conducted a year-long evaluation of NCEP's 29-km mesoscale Eta (meso-eta) weather prediction model in order to identify added value to forecast operations in support of the United States space program. The evaluation was stratified over warm and cool seasons and considered both objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective verification results generally indicate that meso-eta model point forecasts at selected stations exhibit minimal error growth in terms of RMS errors and are reasonably unbiased. Conversely, results from the subjective verification demonstrate that model forecasts of developing weather events such as thunderstorms, sea breezes, and cold fronts, are not always as accurate as implied by the seasonal error statistics. Sea-breeze case studies reveal that the model generates a dynamically-consistent thermally direct circulation over the Florida peninsula, although at a larger scale than observed. Thunderstorm verification reveals that the meso-eta model is capable of predicting areas of organized convection, particularly during the late afternoon hours but is not capable of forecasting individual thunderstorms. Verification of cold fronts during the cool season reveals that the model is capable of forecasting a majority of cold frontal passages through east central Florida to within +1-h of observed frontal passage.

Real-Time Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station High-Resolution Model Implementation and Verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shafer, Jaclyn; Watson, Leela R.

2015-01-01

NASA's Launch Services Program, Ground Systems Development and Operations, Space Launch System and other programs at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) use the daily and weekly weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) as decision tools for their day-to-day and launch operations on the Eastern Range (ER). Examples include determining if they need to limit activities such as vehicle transport to the launch pad, protect people, structures or exposed launch vehicles given a threat of severe weather, or reschedule other critical operations. The 45 WS uses numerical weather prediction models as a guide for these weather forecasts, particularly the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) 1.67 km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Considering the 45 WS forecasters' and Launch Weather Officers' (LWO) extensive use of the AFWA model, the 45 WS proposed a task at the September 2013 Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Tasking Meeting requesting the AMU verify this model. Due to the lack of archived model data available from AFWA, verification is not yet possible. Instead, the AMU proposed to implement and verify the performance of an ER version of the high-resolution WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) model configured by the AMU (Watson 2013) in real time. Implementing a real-time version of the ER WRF-EMS would generate a larger database of model output than in the previous AMU task for determining model performance, and allows the AMU more control over and access to the model output archive. The tasking group agreed to this proposal; therefore the AMU implemented the WRF-EMS model on the second of two NASA AMU modeling clusters. The AMU also calculated verification statistics to determine model performance compared to observational data. Finally, the AMU made the model output available on the AMU Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System II (AWIPS II) servers, which allows the 45 WS and AMU staff to customize the model output display on the AMU and Range Weather Operations (RWO) AWIPS II client computers and conduct real-time subjective analyses.

GEM: Geospace Environment Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roederer, Juan G.

Shortly after the beginning of the “space age” with the launching of the first man made object into terrestrial orbit, geospace assumed a fundamental role as a technological resource for all countries, advanced and developing alike. Today, satellite systems for communications, weather prediction, navigation, and remote sensing of natural resources are supporting, in an essential way, many facets of societal operations. We must expect that this trend will continue; for instance, in perhaps less than 3 decades, transatmospheric transportation will be routine and satellite systems will sustain human colonies in space.The medium in which Earth-orbiting systems operate is hostile. Far from a perfect vacuum, it is made up of high-temperature gas and corpuscular radiation of varying densities and intensities; these solar-activity controlled variations can reach proportions dangerous to orbital stability, to electronic systems performance, to shuttle and spaceplane reentry, and to the life of humans in orbit. Dramatic examples of solar-activity-induced satellite failures are the unexpected early degradation of the orbit of Skylab due to unusual upper atmosphere heating and the demise of satellite GOES-5, most probably caused by a large injection of energetic electrons from the outer magnetoshere. The need to predict “weather and climate” in geospace is becoming as important as the need to predict weather and climate in the inhospitable regions on Earth into which industrial activity has moved during the last decades, such as the Arctic and some of the arid lands.

Space Weather Monitoring for ISS Space Environments Engineering and Crew Auroral Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minow, Joseph I.; Pettit, Donald R.; Hartman, William A.

2012-01-01

The awareness of potentially significant impacts of space weather on spaceand ground ]based technological systems has generated a strong desire in many sectors of government and industry to effectively transform knowledge and understanding of the variable space environment into useful tools and applications for use by those entities responsible for systems that may be vulnerable to space weather impacts. Essentially, effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

Superposed epoch analysis of physiological fluctuations: possible space weather connections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanliss, James; Cornélissen, Germaine; Halberg, Franz; Brown, Denzel; Washington, Brien

2018-03-01

There is a strong connection between space weather and fluctuations in technological systems. Some studies also suggest a statistical connection between space weather and subsequent fluctuations in the physiology of living creatures. This connection, however, has remained controversial and difficult to demonstrate. Here we present support for a response of human physiology to forcing from the explosive onset of the largest of space weather events—space storms. We consider a case study with over 16 years of high temporal resolution measurements of human blood pressure (systolic, diastolic) and heart rate variability to search for associations with space weather. We find no statistically significant change in human blood pressure but a statistically significant drop in heart rate during the main phase of space storms. Our empirical findings shed light on how human physiology may respond to exogenous space weather forcing.

Superposed epoch analysis of physiological fluctuations: possible space weather connections.

PubMed

Wanliss, James; Cornélissen, Germaine; Halberg, Franz; Brown, Denzel; Washington, Brien

2018-03-01

There is a strong connection between space weather and fluctuations in technological systems. Some studies also suggest a statistical connection between space weather and subsequent fluctuations in the physiology of living creatures. This connection, however, has remained controversial and difficult to demonstrate. Here we present support for a response of human physiology to forcing from the explosive onset of the largest of space weather events-space storms. We consider a case study with over 16 years of high temporal resolution measurements of human blood pressure (systolic, diastolic) and heart rate variability to search for associations with space weather. We find no statistically significant change in human blood pressure but a statistically significant drop in heart rate during the main phase of space storms. Our empirical findings shed light on how human physiology may respond to exogenous space weather forcing.

Space Weather Forecasting: An Enigma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sojka, J. J.

2012-12-01

The space age began in earnest on October 4, 1957 with the launch of Sputnik 1 and was fuelled for over a decade by very strong national societal concerns. Prior to this single event the adverse effects of space weather had been registered on telegraph lines as well as interference on early WWII radar systems, while for countless eons the beauty of space weather as mid-latitude auroral displays were much appreciated. These prior space weather impacts were in themselves only a low-level science puzzle pursued by a few dedicated researchers. The technology boost and innovation that the post Sputnik era generated has almost single handedly defined our present day societal technology infrastructure. During the decade following Neil's walk on the moon on July 21, 1969 an international thrust to understand the science of space, and its weather, was in progress. However, the search for scientific understand was parsed into independent "stove pipe" categories: The ionosphere-aeronomy, the magnetosphere, the heliosphere-sun. The present day scientific infrastructure of funding agencies, learned societies, and international organizations are still hampered by these 1960's logical divisions which today are outdated in the pursuit of understanding space weather. As this era of intensive and well funded scientific research progressed so did societies innovative uses for space technologies and space "spin-offs". Well over a decade ago leaders in technology, science, and the military realized that there was indeed an adverse side to space weather that with each passing year became more severe. In 1994 several U.S. agencies established the National Space Weather Program (NSWP) to focus scientific attention on the system wide issue of the adverse effects of space weather on society and its technologies. Indeed for the past two decades a significant fraction of the scientific community has actively engaged in understanding space weather and hence crossing the "stove-pipe" disciplines. The perceived progress in space weather understanding differs significantly depending upon which community (scientific, technology, forecaster, society) is addressing the question. Even more divergent are these thoughts when the question is how valuable is the scientific capability of forecasting space weather. This talk will discuss present day as well as future potential for forecasting space weather for a few selected examples. The author will attempt to straddle the divergent community opinions.

Successfully Transitioning Science Research to Space Weather Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spann, James

2012-01-01

The awareness of potentially significant impacts of space weather on spaceand ground ]based technological systems has generated a strong desire in many sectors of government and industry to effectively transform knowledge and understanding of the variable space environment into useful tools and applications for use by those entities responsible for systems that may be vulnerable to space weather impacts. Essentially, effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

Space Weather Drivers in the ACE Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogt, M.; Puhl-Quinn, P.; Jordanova, V. K.; Smith, C. W.; Cohen, C. M.

2004-12-01

The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft was launched Aug.~25, 1997 [Stone et al., 1998]. Beginning shortly after launch and continuing to the present day ACE has provided real-time data telemetry of solar wind conditions upstream of the Earth. The real-time data includes solar wind speed and density, magnetic field direction and magnitude, and a range of energetic particle intensities [Zwickl et al., 1999]. The real-time data product is provided within 5 minutes of observation and many partners from both industry and science use these data for a variety of purposes. The most common purpose of practical industrial application involves mitigation of lost services arising from magnetospheric storm activity. Many space weather efforts are directed at providing improved predictions of magnetospheric response that can be applied to real-time data in the hope of better predicting the vulnerability and required action of industry to approaching disturbances. It therefore seems prudent that following 6 years of activity including one solar maximum period we should evaluate the nature and strength of the largest disturbances observed with the hope of better assessing the industrial response. Simply put: ``Did ACE observe disturbances that were as large as those seen previously during the space age?'' If not, it may be the case that industry must evaluate its response to the real-time warnings and not become complacent by the simple act of survival. We compare the most intense space weather events of the ACE era with those recorded on the Omnitape data set spanning 40+ years of spacecraft measurements in the near-Earth environment. We compare both magnetospheric response parameters and solar wind drivers. In addition, we compare the large energetic particle events over the same time frame. Stone, E.~C., et al., Space Science Rev., 86(1-4), 357-408, 1998. Zwickl, R.~D., et al., Space Science Rev., 86(1-4), 633-648, 1998.

Space Weathering of Lunar Rocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noble, S. K.; Keller, L. P.; Christoffersen, R.; Rahman, Z.

2012-01-01

All materials exposed at the lunar surface undergo space weathering processes. On the Moon, boulders make up only a small percentage of the exposed surface, and areas where such rocks are exposed, like central peaks, are often among the least space weathered regions identified from remote sensing data. Yet space weathered surfaces (patina) are relatively common on returned rock samples, some of which directly sample the surface of larger boulders. Because, as witness plates to lunar space weathering, rocks and boulders experience longer exposure times compared to lunar soil grains, they allow us to develop a deeper perspective on the relative importance of various weathering processes as a function of time.

Weather impacts on space operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madura, J.; Boyd, B.; Bauman, W.; Wyse, N.; Adams, M.

The efforts of the 45th Weather Squadron of the USAF to provide weather support to Patrick Air Force Base, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Eastern Range, and the Kennedy Space Center are discussed. Its weather support to space vehicles, particularly the Space Shuttle, includes resource protection, ground processing, launch, and Ferry Flight, as well as consultations to the Spaceflight Meteorology Group for landing forecasts. Attention is given to prelaunch processing weather, launch support weather, Shuttle launch commit criteria, and range safety weather restrictions. Upper level wind requirements are examined. The frequency of hourly surface observations with thunderstorms at the Shuttle landing facility, and lightning downtime at the Titan launch complexes are illustrated.

Experimental chemical weathering of various bedrock types at different pH-values. 1. Sandstone and granite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Afifi, A.A.; Bricker, O.P.; Chemerys, J.C.

1985-01-01

Experimental chemical weathering of the so-called Old Rag Granite and Massanutten Sandstone, Virginia, U.S.A., has produced a comparison with the natural environment, and prediction of the effect of acid precipitation. The experimental results of the release of elements, dissolution of minerals, total rock weathered and the degree of weathering as function of volume of leachate were plotted. These data were compared with the natural environment. The use of the plots to predict the effect of high levels of rain acidity on weathering of these rocks is demonstrated. A nonexpandable 14-A?? clay was developed from the alteration of biotite during the experimental chemical weathering of the granite at pH 4. This interstratified Al(OH)-mica clay resembles those of the soil developed on the granite and sandstone. Hydroxy-Al may be precipitating between the mica interlayers and producing a 14-A?? spacing. Development of this clay by chemical alteration of biotite may change the current hypotheses about its origin in the soils of northeastern U.S.A. While Al-hydroxide seems to regulate Al concentrations in stream waters at the present level of rain acidity, it was found that at lower pH and in the presence of high sulfate concentrations, Al solubility may be controlled by Al-sulfate phase(s). ?? 1985.

Enhanced Airport Capacity Through Safe, Dynamic Reductions in Aircraft Separation: NASA's Aircraft VOrtex Spacing System (AVOSS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

OConnor, Cornelius J.; Rutishauser, David K.

2001-01-01

An aspect of airport terminal operations that holds potential for efficiency improvements is the separation criteria applied to aircraft for wake vortex avoidance. These criteria evolved to represent safe spacing under weather conditions conducive to the longest wake hazards, and are consequently overly conservative during a significant portion of operations. Under many ambient conditions, such as moderate crosswinds or turbulence, wake hazard durations are substantially reduced. To realize this reduction NASA has developed a proof-of-concept Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS). Successfully operated in a real-time field demonstration during July 2000 at the Dallas Ft. Worth International Airport, AVOSS is a novel integration of weather sensors, wake sensors, and analytical wake prediction algorithms. Gains in airport throughput using AVOSS spacing as compared to the current criteria averaged 6%, with peak values approaching the theoretical maximum of 16%. The average throughput gain translates to 15-40% reductions in delay when applied to realistic capacity ratios at major airports.

Generic magnetohydrodynamic model at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honkonen, I. J.; Rastaetter, L.; Glocer, A.

2016-12-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is a multi-agency partnership to enable, support and perform research and development for next-generation space science and space weather models. CCMC currently hosts nearly 100 numerical models and a cornerstone of this activity is the Runs on Request (RoR) system which allows anyone to request a model run and analyse/visualize the results via a web browser. CCMC is also active in the education community by organizing student research contests, heliophysics summer schools, and space weather forecaster training for students, government and industry representatives. Recently a generic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model was added to the CCMC RoR system which allows the study of a variety of fluid and plasma phenomena in one, two and three dimensions using a dynamic point-and-click web interface. For example students can experiment with the physics of fundamental wave modes of hydrodynamic and MHD theory, behavior of discontinuities and shocks as well as instabilities such as Kelvin-Helmholtz.Students can also use the model to experiments with numerical effects of models, i.e. how the process of discretizing a system of equations and solving them on a computer changes the solution. This can provide valuable background understanding e.g. for space weather forecasters on the effects of model resolution, numerical resistivity, etc. on the prediction.

The National Space Weather Strategy: Policy on Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murtagh, W. J.

2016-12-01

Ensuring that the United States is prepared to respond to and recover from severe space weather storms is a priority to the President and to this Administration. We cannot ignore the potential impact space weather may have on key infrastructures and technologies including aviation and satellite operations, the electric power grid, and GPS applications. These technologies form the very backbone of the critical technology infrastructure we rely on for so much of what we do today. In October 2015, OSTP Director John Holdren announced the release of the National Space Weather Strategy and the National Space Weather Action Plan. The Strategy identifies goals and establishes the principles that will guide efforts to develop national space-weather preparedness in both the near and long term, while the Action Plan identifies specific activities, outcomes, and timelines that the Federal government must pursue to be prepared for and resilient to future space-weather events. The Strategy recognizes that observations are the backbone of forecast and warning capabilities. The Strategy also recognized that to achieve a robust operational program for space-weather observations, the United States must: (1) establish and sustain a foundational set of observations; (2) when feasible and cost effective, use data from multiple sources, including international, Federal, State, and local governments, as well as from the academic and industry sectors; (3) ensure the continuity of critical data sources; (4) continue to support sensors for solar and space physics research; (5) ensure data-assimilation techniques are in place; and (6) maintain archives for ground- and space-based data, which are essential for model development and benchmarking. In this talk we explore elements in the Space Weather Action Plan that will ensure our Nation has the information we need to enhance resilience to the risk of space weather.

GOES-R Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-17

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, members of the media participate in a mission briefing on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R). Briefing participants included Steven Goodman, NOAA's GOES-R program scientist, and Joseph A. Pica, director of the National Weather Service Office of Observations. GOES-R is the first satellite in a series of next-generation GOES satellites for NOAA, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. It will launch to a geostationary orbit over the western hemisphere to provide images of storms and help meteorologists predict severe weather conditionals and develop long-range forecasts.

Severe rainfall prediction systems for civil protection purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comellas, A.; Llasat, M. C.; Molini, L.; Parodi, A.; Siccardi, F.

2010-09-01

One of the most common natural hazards impending on Mediterranean regions is the occurrence of severe weather structures able to produce heavy rainfall. Floods have killed about 1000 people across all Europe in last 10 years. With the aim of mitigating this kind of risk, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and rain probability forecasts are two tools nowadays available for national meteorological services and institutions responsible for weather forecasting in order to and predict rainfall, by using either the deterministic or the probabilistic approach. This study provides an insight of the different approaches used by Italian (DPC) and Catalonian (SMC) Civil Protection and the results they achieved with their peculiar issuing-system for early warnings. For the former, the analysis considers the period between 2006-2009 in which the predictive ability of the forecasting system, based on the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-I7, has been put into comparison with ground based observations (composed by more than 2000 raingauge stations, Molini et al., 2009). Italian system is mainly focused on regional-scale warnings providing forecasts for periods never shorter than 18 hours and very often have a 36-hour maximum duration . The information contained in severe weather bulletins is not quantitative and usually is referred to a specific meteorological phenomena (thunderstorms, wind gales et c.). Updates and refining have a usual refresh time of 24 hours. SMC operates within the Catalonian boundaries and uses a warning system that mixes both quantitative and probabilistic information. For each administrative region ("comarca") Catalonia is divided into, forecasters give an approximate value of the average predicted rainfall and the probability of overcoming that threshold. Usually warnings are re-issued every 6 hours and their duration depends on the predicted time extent of the storm. In order to provide a comprehensive QPF verification, the rainfall predicted by Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5), the SMC forecast operational model, is compared with the local rain gauge network for year 2008 (Comellas et al., 2010). This study presents benefits and drawbacks of both Italian and Catalonian systems. Moreover, a particular attention is paid on the link between system's predictive ability and the predicted severe weather type as a function of its space-time development.

Space Weather Models and Their Validation and Verification at the CCMC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hesse, Michael

2010-01-01

The Community Coordinated l\\lodeling Center (CCMC) is a US multi-agency activity with a dual mission. With equal emphasis, CCMC strives to provide science support to the international space research community through the execution of advanced space plasma simulations, and it endeavors to support the space weather needs of the CS and partners. Space weather support involves a broad spectrum, from designing robust forecasting systems and transitioning them to forecasters, to providing space weather updates and forecasts to NASA's robotic mission operators. All of these activities have to rely on validation and verification of models and their products, so users and forecasters have the means to assign confidence levels to the space weather information. In this presentation, we provide an overview of space weather models resident at CCMC, as well as of validation and verification activities undertaken at CCMC or through the use of CCMC services.

International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Nat; Davila, Joseph M.

2010-01-01

The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is an international scientific program to understand the external drivers of space weather. The science and applications of space weather has been brought to prominence because of the rapid development of space based technology that is useful for all human beings. The ISWI program has its roots in the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program that ran during 2007 - 2009. The primary objective of the ISWI program is to advance the space weather science by a combination of instrument deployment, analysis and interpretation of space weather data from the deployed instruments in conjunction with space data, and communicate the results to the public and students. Like the IHY, the ISWI will be a grass roots organization with key participation from national coordinators in cooperation with an international steering committee. This talk outlines the ISWI program including its organization and proposed activities.

Global Cooperation in the Science of Space Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Nat

2011-01-01

The international space science community had recognized the importance of space weather more than a decade ago, which resulted in a number of international collaborative activities such as the Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System (CAWSES) by SCOSTEP and the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI). The ISWI program is a continuation of the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program. These programs have brought scientists together to tackle the scientific issues behind space weather. In addition to the vast array of space instruments, ground based instruments have been deployed, which not only filled voids in data coverage, but also inducted young scientists from developing countries into the scientific community. This paper presents a summary of CAWSES and ISWI activities that promote space weather science via complementary approaches in international scientific collaborations. capacity building. and public outreach.

Predicting the magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections arriving at Earth: 2. Geomagnetic response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savani, N. P.; Vourlidas, A.; Richardson, I. G.; Szabo, A.; Thompson, B. J.; Pulkkinen, A.; Mays, M. L.; Nieves-Chinchilla, T.; Bothmer, V.

2017-02-01

This is a companion to Savani et al. (2015) that discussed how a first-order prediction of the internal magnetic field of a coronal mass ejection (CME) may be made from observations of its initial state at the Sun for space weather forecasting purposes (Bothmer-Schwenn scheme (BSS) model). For eight CME events, we investigate how uncertainties in their predicted magnetic structure influence predictions of the geomagnetic activity. We use an empirical relationship between the solar wind plasma drivers and Kp index together with the inferred magnetic vectors, to make a prediction of the time variation of Kp (Kp(BSS)). We find a 2σ uncertainty range on the magnetic field magnitude (|B|) provides a practical and convenient solution for predicting the uncertainty in geomagnetic storm strength. We also find the estimated CME velocity is a major source of error in the predicted maximum Kp. The time variation of Kp(BSS) is important for predicting periods of enhanced and maximum geomagnetic activity, driven by southerly directed magnetic fields, and periods of lower activity driven by northerly directed magnetic field. We compare the skill score of our model to a number of other forecasting models, including the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)/SWRC estimates. The BSS model was the most unbiased prediction model, while the other models predominately tended to significantly overforecast. The True skill score of the BSS prediction model (TSS = 0.43 ± 0.06) exceeds the results of two baseline models and the NOAA/SWPC forecast. The BSS model prediction performed equally with CCMC/SWRC predictions while demonstrating a lower uncertainty.

The discovery of silicon oxide nanoparticles in space-weathered of Apollo 15 lunar soil grains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Lixin; Zhang, Bin; Hu, Sen; Noguchi, Takaaki; Hidaka, Hiroshi; Lin, Yangting

2018-03-01

Space weathering is an important process on the Moon and other airless celestial bodies. The most common space weathering effects are amorphization of the top surface of soil grains and formation of nanophase iron particles (npFe) within the partially amorphous rims. Hence, space weathering significantly affects optical properties of the surface of the Moon and other airless celestial bodies. Transmission electron microscope (TEM) analysis of Apollo 15 soil grains displays npFe (≤5 nm in size) embedded in the space-weathered rim (∼60 nm in thickness) of a pyroxene grain, consistent with previous studies. In contrast, submicron-sized fragments that adhere to the pyroxene grain show distinct space weathering features. Silicon oxide nanoparticles (npSiOx) were observed with npFe in a submicron-sized Mg-Fe silicate fragment. This is the first discovery of npSiOx as a product of space weathering. The npSiOx and the coexisting npFe are ∼10-25 nm in size, significantly larger than the typical npFe in the space weathered rim of the pyroxene grain. The coexisting npSiOx and npFe were probably formed directly in micrometeorite shock-induced melt, instead of in a solar-wind generated vapor deposit or irradiated rim. This new observation will shed light on space weathering processes on the Moon and airless celestial bodies.

Innovative Approaches for the Dissemination of Near Real-time Geostationary Satellite Data for Terrestrial and Space Weather Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jedlovec, G.; McGrath, K.; Meyer, P. J.; Berndt, E.

2017-12-01

A GOES-R series receiving station has been installed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to support GOES-16 transition-to-operations projects of NASA's Earth science program and provide a community portal for GOES-16 data access. This receiving station is comprised of a 6.5-meter dish; motor-driven positioners; Quorum feed and demodulator; and three Linux workstations for ingest, processing, display, and subsequent product generation. The Community Satellite Processing Package (CSPP) is used to process GOES Rebroadcast data from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI), Extreme Ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Sensors (EXIS), and Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS) into Level 1b and Level 2 files. GeoTIFFs of the imagery from several of these instruments are ingested into an Esri Arc Enterprise Web Map Service (WMS) server with tiled imagery displayable through a web browser interface or by connecting directly to the WMS with a Geographic Information System software package. These data also drive a basic web interface where users can manually zoom to and animate regions of interest or acquire similar results using a published Application Program Interface. While not as interactive as a WMS-driven interface, this system is much more expeditious with generating and distributing requested imagery. The legacy web capability enacted for the predecessor GOES Imager currently supports approximately 500,000 unique visitors each month. Dissemination capabilities have been refined to support a significantly larger number of anticipated users. The receiving station also supports NASA's Short-term Prediction, Research, and Transition Center's (SPoRT) project activities to dissemination near real-time ABI RGB products to National Weather Service National Centers, including the Satellite Analysis Branch, National Hurricane Center, Ocean Prediction Center, and Weather Prediction Center, where they are displayed in N-AWIPS and AWIPS II. The multitude of additional real-time data users include the U.S. Coast Guard, Federal Aviation Administration, and The Weather Company. A second antenna is being installed for the ingest, processing, and dissemination of GOES-S data.

Transition of R&D into Operations at Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clancy, R. M.

2006-12-01

The U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) plays a significant role in the National capability for operational weather and ocean prediction through its operation of sophisticated global and regional meteorological and oceanographic models, extending from the top of the atmosphere to the bottom of the ocean. FNMOC uniquely satisfies the military's requirement for a global operational weather prediction capability based on software certified to DoD Information Assurance standards and operated in a secure classified computer environment protected from outside intrusion by DoD certified firewalls. FNMOC operates around-the-clock, 365 days per year and distributes products to military and civilian users around the world, both ashore and afloat, through a variety of means. FNMOC's customers include all branches of the Department of Defense, other government organizations such as the National Weather Service, private companies, a number of colleges and universities, and the general public. FNMOC employs three primary models, the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS), and the WaveWatch III model (WW3), along with a number of specialized models and related applications. NOGAPS is a global weather model, driving nearly all other FNMOC models and applications in some fashion. COAMPS is a high- resolution regional model that has proved to be particularly valuable for forecasting weather and ocean conditions in highly complex coastal areas. WW3 is a state-of-the-art ocean wave model that is employed both globally and regionally in support of a wide variety of naval operations. Other models support and supplement the main models with predictions of ocean thermal structure, ocean currents, sea-ice characteristics, and other data. Fleet Numerical operates at the leading edge of science and technology, and benefits greatly from collocation with its supporting R&D activity, the Marine Meteorology Division of the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL Code 7500). NRL Code 7500 is a world-class research organization, with focus on weather-related support for the warfighter. Fleet Numerical and NRL Code 7500 share space, data, software and computer systems, and together represent one of the largest concentrations of weather-related intellectual capital in the nation. As documented, for example, by the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) of the National Research Council, investment in R&D is crucial for maintaining state-of-the-art operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) capabilities (see BASC, 1998). And collocation and close cooperation between research and operations, such as exists between NRL Code 7500 and Fleet Numerical, is the optimum arrangement for transitioning R&D quickly and cost-effectively into new and improved operational weather prediction capabilities.

Aviation & Space Weather Policy Research: Integrating Space Weather Observations & Forecasts into Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, G.; Jones, B.

2006-12-01

The American Meteorological Society and SolarMetrics Limited are conducting a policy research project leading to recommendations that will increase the safety, reliability, and efficiency of the nation's airline operations through more effective use of space weather forecasts and information. This study, which is funded by a 3-year National Science Foundation grant, also has the support of the Federal Aviation Administration and the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) who is planning the Next Generation Air Transportation System. A major component involves interviewing and bringing together key people in the aviation industry who deal with space weather information. This research also examines public and industrial strategies and plans to respond to space weather information. The focus is to examine policy issues in implementing effective application of space weather services to the management of the nation's aviation system. The results from this project will provide government and industry leaders with additional tools and information to make effective decisions with respect to investments in space weather research and services. While space weather can impact the entire aviation industry, and this project will address national and international issues, the primary focus will be on developing a U.S. perspective for the airlines.

Achievements and Challenges in the Science of Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koskinen, Hannu E. J.; Baker, Daniel N.; Balogh, André; Gombosi, Tamas; Veronig, Astrid; von Steiger, Rudolf

2017-11-01

In June 2016 a group of 40 space weather scientists attended the workshop on Scientific Foundations of Space Weather at the International Space Science Institute in Bern. In this lead article to the volume based on the talks and discussions during the workshop we review some of main past achievements in the field and outline some of the challenges that the science of space weather is facing today and in the future.

Progress in Space Weather Modeling and Observations Needed to Improve the Operational NAIRAS Model Aircraft Radiation Exposure Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, C. J.; Kress, B. T.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Tobiska, W.; Xu, X.

2011-12-01

The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a prototype operational model for predicting commercial aircraft radiation exposure from galactic and solar cosmic rays. NAIRAS predictions are currently streaming live from the project's public website, and the exposure rate nowcast is also available on the SpaceWx smartphone app for iPhone, IPad, and Android. Cosmic rays are the primary source of human exposure to high linear energy transfer radiation at aircraft altitudes, which increases the risk of cancer and other adverse health effects. Thus, the NAIRAS model addresses an important national need with broad societal, public health and economic benefits. The processes responsible for the variability in the solar wind, interplanetary magnetic field, solar energetic particle spectrum, and the dynamical response of the magnetosphere to these space environment inputs, strongly influence the composition and energy distribution of the atmospheric ionizing radiation field. During the development of the NAIRAS model, new science questions were identified that must be addressed in order to obtain a more reliable and robust operational model of atmospheric radiation exposure. Addressing these science questions require improvements in both space weather modeling and observations. The focus of this talk is to present these science questions, the proposed methodologies for addressing these science questions, and the anticipated improvements to the operational predictions of atmospheric radiation exposure. The overarching goal of this work is to provide a decision support tool for the aviation industry that will enable an optimal balance to be achieved between minimizing health risks to passengers and aircrew while simultaneously minimizing costs to the airline companies.

The Space Weather and Ultraviolet Solar Variability (SWUSV) Microsatellite Mission

PubMed Central

Damé, Luc; Meftah, Mustapha; Hauchecorne, Alain; Keckhut, Philippe; Sarkissian, Alain; Marchand, Marion; Irbah, Abdenour; Quémerais, Éric; Bekki, Slimane; Foujols, Thomas; Kretzschmar, Matthieu; Cessateur, Gaël; Shapiro, Alexander; Schmutz, Werner; Kuzin, Sergey; Slemzin, Vladimir; Urnov, Alexander; Bogachev, Sergey; Merayo, José; Brauer, Peter; Tsinganos, Kanaris; Paschalis, Antonis; Mahrous, Ayman; Khaled, Safinaz; Ghitas, Ahmed; Marzouk, Besheir; Zaki, Amal; Hady, Ahmed A.; Kariyappa, Rangaiah

2013-01-01

We present the ambitions of the SWUSV (Space Weather and Ultraviolet Solar Variability) Microsatellite Mission that encompasses three major scientific objectives: (1) Space Weather including the prediction and detection of major eruptions and coronal mass ejections (Lyman-Alpha and Herzberg continuum imaging); (2) solar forcing on the climate through radiation and their interactions with the local stratosphere (UV spectral irradiance from 180 to 400 nm by bands of 20 nm, plus Lyman-Alpha and the CN bandhead); (3) simultaneous radiative budget of the Earth, UV to IR, with an accuracy better than 1% in differential. The paper briefly outlines the mission and describes the five proposed instruments of the model payload: SUAVE (Solar Ultraviolet Advanced Variability Experiment), an optimized telescope for FUV (Lyman-Alpha) and MUV (200–220 nm Herzberg continuum) imaging (sources of variability); UPR (Ultraviolet Passband Radiometers), with 64 UV filter radiometers; a vector magnetometer; thermal plasma measurements and Langmuir probes; and a total and spectral solar irradiance and Earth radiative budget ensemble (SERB, Solar irradiance & Earth Radiative Budget). SWUSV is proposed as a small mission to CNES and to ESA for a possible flight as early as 2017–2018. PMID:25685424

The Space Weather and Ultraviolet Solar Variability (SWUSV) Microsatellite Mission.

PubMed

Damé, Luc

2013-05-01

We present the ambitions of the SWUSV (Space Weather and Ultraviolet Solar Variability) Microsatellite Mission that encompasses three major scientific objectives: (1) Space Weather including the prediction and detection of major eruptions and coronal mass ejections (Lyman-Alpha and Herzberg continuum imaging); (2) solar forcing on the climate through radiation and their interactions with the local stratosphere (UV spectral irradiance from 180 to 400 nm by bands of 20 nm, plus Lyman-Alpha and the CN bandhead); (3) simultaneous radiative budget of the Earth, UV to IR, with an accuracy better than 1% in differential. The paper briefly outlines the mission and describes the five proposed instruments of the model payload: SUAVE (Solar Ultraviolet Advanced Variability Experiment), an optimized telescope for FUV (Lyman-Alpha) and MUV (200-220 nm Herzberg continuum) imaging (sources of variability); UPR (Ultraviolet Passband Radiometers), with 64 UV filter radiometers; a vector magnetometer; thermal plasma measurements and Langmuir probes; and a total and spectral solar irradiance and Earth radiative budget ensemble (SERB, Solar irradiance & Earth Radiative Budget). SWUSV is proposed as a small mission to CNES and to ESA for a possible flight as early as 2017-2018.

The New Space Weather Action Center; the Next Level on Space Weather Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Lewis, E. M.; Cline, T. D.; MacDonald, E.

2016-12-01

The Space Weather Action Center (SWAC) provides access for students to near real-time space weather data, and a set of easy instructions and well-defined protocols that allow them to correctly interpret such data. It is a student centered approach to teaching science and technology in classrooms, as students are encouraged to act like real scientists by accessing, collecting, analyzing, recording, and communicating space weather forecasts. Integration and implementation of several programs will enhance and provide a rich education experience for students' grades 5-16. We will enhance the existing data and tutorials available using the Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) tool created by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA GSFC. iSWA is a flexible, turn-key, customer-configurable, Web-based dissemination system for NASA-relevant space weather information that combines data based on the most advanced space weather models available through the CCMC with concurrent space environment information. This tool provides an additional component by the use of videos and still imagery from different sources as a tool for educators to effectively show what happens during an eruption from the surface of the Sun. We will also update content on the net result of space weather forecasting that the public can experience by including Aurorasaurus, a well established, growing, modern, innovative, interdisciplinary citizen science project centered around the public's visibility of the northern lights with mobile applications via the use of social media connections.

Comprehensive Solar-Terrestrial Environment Model (COSTEM) for Space Weather Predictions

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-07-01

research in data assimilation methodologies applicable to the space environment, as well as "threat adaptive" grid computing technologies, where we...SWMF is tested by(SWMF) [29, 43] was designed in 2001 and has sse et xriig mlil ope been developed to integrate and couple several system tests...its components. The night on several computer/compiler platforms. main design goals of the SWMF were to minimizedocumented. mai deigngoas o th SWF

The effort to increase the space weather forecasting accuracy in KSWC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, J. S.

2017-12-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition as the Regional Warning Center of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. Recently, KSWC are focusing on increasing the accuracy of space weather forecasting results and verifying the model generated results. The forecasting accuracy will be calculated based on the probability statistical estimation so that the results can be compared numerically. Regarding the cosmic radiation does, we are gathering the actual measured data of radiation does using the instrument by cooperation with the domestic airlines. Based on the measurement, we are going to verify the reliability of SAFE system which was developed by KSWC to provide the cosmic radiation does information with the airplane cabin crew and public users.

Space Weathering on Airless Bodies.

PubMed

Pieters, Carle M; Noble, Sarah K

2016-10-01

Space weathering refers to alteration that occurs in the space environment with time. Lunar samples, and to some extent meteorites, have provided a benchmark for understanding the processes and products of space weathering. Lunar soils are derived principally from local materials but have accumulated a range of optically active opaque particles (OAOpq) that include nanophase metallic iron on/in rims formed on individual grains (imparting a red slope to visible and near-infrared reflectance) and larger iron particles (which darken across all wavelengths) such as are often found within the interior of recycled grains. Space weathering of other anhydrous silicate bodies, such as Mercury and some asteroids, produce different forms and relative abundance of OAOpq particles depending on the particular environment. If the development of OAOpq particles is minimized (such as at Vesta), contamination by exogenic material and regolith mixing become the dominant space weathering processes. Volatile-rich bodies and those composed of abundant hydrous minerals (dwarf planet Ceres, many dark asteroids, outer solar system satellites) are affected by space weathering processes differently than the silicate bodies of the inner solar system. However, the space weathering products of these bodies are currently poorly understood and the physics and chemistry of space weathering processes in different environments are areas of active research.

Space Weathering on Airless Bodies

PubMed Central

Pieters, Carle M.; Noble, Sarah K.

2018-01-01

Space weathering refers to alteration that occurs in the space environment with time. Lunar samples, and to some extent meteorites, have provided a benchmark for understanding the processes and products of space weathering. Lunar soils are derived principally from local materials but have accumulated a range of optically active opaque particles (OAOpq) that include nanophase metallic iron on/in rims formed on individual grains (imparting a red slope to visible and near-infrared reflectance) and larger iron particles (which darken across all wavelengths) such as are often found within the interior of recycled grains. Space weathering of other anhydrous silicate bodies, such as Mercury and some asteroids, produce different forms and relative abundance of OAOpq particles depending on the particular environment. If the development of OAOpq particles is minimized (such as at Vesta), contamination by exogenic material and regolith mixing become the dominant space weathering processes. Volatile-rich bodies and those composed of abundant hydrous minerals (dwarf planet Ceres, many dark asteroids, outer solar system satellites) are affected by space weathering processes differently than the silicate bodies of the inner solar system. However, the space weathering products of these bodies are currently poorly understood and the physics and chemistry of space weathering processes in different environments are areas of active research. PMID:29862145

Models Required to Mitigate Impacts of Space Weather on Space Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Janet L.

2003-01-01

This viewgraph presentation attempts to develop a model of factors which need to be considered in the design and construction of spacecraft to lessen the effects of space weather on these vehicles. Topics considered include: space environments and effects, radiation environments and effects, space weather drivers, space weather models, climate models, solar proton activity and mission design for the GOES mission. The authors conclude that space environment models need to address issues from mission planning through operations and a program to develop and validate authoritative space environment models for application to spacecraft design does not exist at this time.

Space Weather Status for Exploration Radiation Protection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fry, Dan J.; Lee, Kerry; Zapp, Neal; Barzilla, Janet; Dunegan, Audrey; Johnson, Steve; Stoffle, Nicholas

2011-01-01

Management of crew exposure to radiation is a major concern for manned spaceflight and will be even more important for the modern concept of longer-duration exploration. The inherent protection afforded to astronauts by the magnetic field of the Earth in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) makes operations on the space shuttle or space station very different from operations during an exploration mission. In order to experience significant radiation-derived Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for LEO operations, one is almost driven to dictate extreme duration or to dictate an extreme sequence of solar activity. Outside of the geo-magnetosphere, however, this scenario changes dramatically. Exposures to the same event on the ISS and in free space, for example, may differ by orders of magnitude. This change in magnitude, coupled with the logistical constraints present in implementing any practical operational mitigation make situational awareness with regard to space weather a limiting factor for the ability to conduct exploration operations. We present a current status of developing operational concepts for manned exploration and expectations for asset viability and available predictive and characterization toolsets.

The Economic Impact of Space Weather: Where Do We Stand?

PubMed

Eastwood, J P; Biffis, E; Hapgood, M A; Green, L; Bisi, M M; Bentley, R D; Wicks, R; McKinnell, L-A; Gibbs, M; Burnett, C

2017-02-01

Space weather describes the way in which the Sun, and conditions in space more generally, impact human activity and technology both in space and on the ground. It is now well understood that space weather represents a significant threat to infrastructure resilience, and is a source of risk that is wide-ranging in its impact and the pathways by which this impact may occur. Although space weather is growing rapidly as a field, work rigorously assessing the overall economic cost of space weather appears to be in its infancy. Here, we provide an initial literature review to gather and assess the quality of any published assessments of space weather impacts and socioeconomic studies. Generally speaking, there is a good volume of scientific peer-reviewed literature detailing the likelihood and statistics of different types of space weather phenomena. These phenomena all typically exhibit "power-law" behavior in their severity. The literature on documented impacts is not as extensive, with many case studies, but few statistical studies. The literature on the economic impacts of space weather is rather sparse and not as well developed when compared to the other sections, most probably due to the somewhat limited data that are available from end-users. The major risk is attached to power distribution systems and there is disagreement as to the severity of the technological footprint. This strongly controls the economic impact. Consequently, urgent work is required to better quantify the risk of future space weather events. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

National Space Weather Program Advances on Several Fronts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunzelman, Mark; Babcock, Michael

2008-10-01

The National Space Weather Program (NSWP; http://www.nswp.gov) is a U.S. federal government interagency initiative through the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology that was created to speed the improvement of space weather services for the nation. The Committee for Space Weather (CSW) under the NSWP has continued to advance the program on a number of fronts over the past 12 months.

Space Weather Workshop 2010 to Be Held in April

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peltzer, Thomas

2010-03-01

The annual Space Weather Workshop will be held in Boulder, Colo., 27-30 April 2010. The workshop will bring customers, forecasters, commercial service providers, researchers, and government agencies together in a lively dialogue about space weather. The workshop will include 4 days of plenary sessions on a variety of topics, with poster sessions focusing on the Sun, interplanetary space, the magnetosphere, and the ionosphere. The conference will address the remarkably diverse impacts of space weather on today's technology. Highlights on this year's agenda include ionospheric storms and their impacts on the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), an update on NASA's recently launched Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), and new space weather-related activities in the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Also this year, the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group will feature a presentation by former NOAA administrator, Vice Admiral Conrad Lautenbacher, U.S. Navy (Ret.).

Introduction to the Space Weather Monitoring System at KASI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, J.; Choi, S.; Kim, Y.; Cho, K.; Bong, S.; Lee, J.; Kwak, Y.; Hwang, J.; Park, Y.; Hwang, E.

2014-05-01

We have developed the Space Weather Monitoring System (SWMS) at the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI). Since 2007, the system has continuously evolved into a better system. The SWMS consists of several subsystems: applications which acquire and process observational data, servers which run the applications, data storage, and display facilities which show the space weather information. The applications collect solar and space weather data from domestic and oversea sites. The collected data are converted to other format and/or visualized in real time as graphs and illustrations. We manage 3 data acquisition and processing servers, a file service server, a web server, and 3 sets of storage systems. We have developed 30 applications for a variety of data, and the volume of data is about 5.5 GB per day. We provide our customers with space weather contents displayed at the Space Weather Monitoring Lab (SWML) using web services.

Predicted Weather Display and Decision Support Interface for Flight Deck

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Walter W. (Inventor); Wong, Dominic G. (Inventor); Koteskey, Robert W. (Inventor); Wu, Shu-Chieh (Inventor)

2017-01-01

A system and method for providing visual depictions of a predictive weather forecast for in-route vehicle trajectory planning. The method includes displaying weather information on a graphical display, displaying vehicle position information on the graphical display, selecting a predictive interval, displaying predictive weather information for the predictive interval on the graphical display, and displaying predictive vehicle position information for the predictive interval on the graphical display, such that the predictive vehicle position information is displayed relative to the predictive weather information, for in-route trajectory planning.

A Coupled Probabilistic Wake Vortex and Aircraft Response Prediction Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gloudemans, Thijs; Van Lochem, Sander; Ras, Eelco; Malissa, Joel; Ahmad, Nashat N.; Lewis, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

Wake vortex spacing standards along with weather and runway occupancy time, restrict terminal area throughput and impose major constraints on the overall capacity and efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS). For more than two decades, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been conducting research on characterizing wake vortex behavior in order to develop fast-time wake transport and decay prediction models. It is expected that the models can be used in the systems level design of advanced air traffic management (ATM) concepts that safely increase the capacity of the NAS. It is also envisioned that at a later stage of maturity, these models could potentially be used operationally, in groundbased spacing and scheduling systems as well as on the flight deck.

Latest Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) services and innovative tools supporting the space weather research and operational communities.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, A. M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Shim, J. S.; MacNeice, P. J.; Taktakishvili, A.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Weigand, C.; Zheng, Y.; Mullinix, R.; Patel, K.; Pembroke, A. D.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Boblitt, J. M.; Bakshi, S. S.; Tsui, T.

2017-12-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), with the fundamental goal of aiding the transition of modern space science models into space weather forecasting while supporting space science research, has been serving as an integral hub for over 15 years, providing invaluable resources to both space weather scientific and operational communities. CCMC has developed and provided innovative web-based point of access tools varying from: Runs-On-Request System - providing unprecedented global access to the largest collection of state-of-the-art solar and space physics models, Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) - a powerful dissemination system for space weather information, Advanced Online Visualization and Analysis tools for more accurate interpretation of model results, Standard Data formats for Simulation Data downloads, and Mobile apps to view space weather data anywhere to the scientific community. In addition to supporting research and performing model evaluations, CCMC also supports space science education by hosting summer students through local universities. In this poster, we will showcase CCMC's latest innovative tools and services, and CCMC's tools that revolutionized the way we do research and improve our operational space weather capabilities. CCMC's free tools and resources are all publicly available online (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov).

Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Esparza, J. A.; De la Luz, V.; Corona-Romero, P.; Mejia-Ambriz, J. C.; Gonzalez, L. X.; Sergeeva, M. A.; Romero-Hernandez, E.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.

2017-01-01

Legislative modifications of the General Civil Protection Law in Mexico in 2014 included specific references to space hazards and space weather phenomena. The legislation is consistent with United Nations promotion of international engagement and cooperation on space weather awareness, studies, and monitoring. These internal and external conditions motivated the creation of a space weather service in Mexico. The Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX in Spanish) (www.sciesmex.unam.mx) was initiated in October 2014 and is operated by the Institute of Geophysics at the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM). SCiESMEX became a Regional Warning Center of the International Space Environment Services (ISES) in June 2015. We present the characteristics of the service, some products, and the initial actions for developing a space weather strategy in Mexico. The service operates a computing infrastructure including a web application, data repository, and a high-performance computing server to run numerical models. SCiESMEX uses data of the ground-based instrumental network of the National Space Weather Laboratory (LANCE), covering solar radio burst emissions, solar wind and interplanetary disturbances (by interplanetary scintillation observations), geomagnetic measurements, and analysis of the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere (by employing data from local networks of GPS receiver stations).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Chang; Deng, Na; Wang, Haimin

Adverse space-weather effects can often be traced to solar flares, the prediction of which has drawn significant research interests. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) produces full-disk vector magnetograms with continuous high cadence, while flare prediction efforts utilizing this unprecedented data source are still limited. Here we report results of flare prediction using physical parameters provided by the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) and related data products. We survey X-ray flares that occurred from 2010 May to 2016 December and categorize their source regions into four classes (B, C, M, and X) according to the maximum GOES magnitude ofmore » flares they generated. We then retrieve SHARP-related parameters for each selected region at the beginning of its flare date to build a database. Finally, we train a machine-learning algorithm, called random forest (RF), to predict the occurrence of a certain class of flares in a given active region within 24 hr, evaluate the classifier performance using the 10-fold cross-validation scheme, and characterize the results using standard performance metrics. Compared to previous works, our experiments indicate that using the HMI parameters and RF is a valid method for flare forecasting with fairly reasonable prediction performance. To our knowledge, this is the first time that RF has been used to make multiclass predictions of solar flares. We also find that the total unsigned quantities of vertical current, current helicity, and flux near the polarity inversion line are among the most important parameters for classifying flaring regions into different classes.« less

NSF's Perspective on Space Weather Research for Building Forecasting Capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Webb, D. F.; Oughton, E. J.; Azeem, S. I.

2017-12-01

Space weather research at the National Science Foundation (NSF) is focused on scientific discovery and on deepening knowledge of the Sun-Geospace system. The process of maturation of knowledge base is a requirement for the development of improved space weather forecast models and for the accurate assessment of potential mitigation strategies. Progress in space weather forecasting requires advancing in-depth understanding of the underlying physical processes, developing better instrumentation and measurement techniques, and capturing the advancements in understanding in large-scale physics based models that span the entire chain of events from the Sun to the Earth. This presentation will provide an overview of current and planned programs pertaining to space weather research at NSF and discuss the recommendations of the Geospace Section portfolio review panel within the context of space weather forecasting capabilities.

Storms in Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, John W.

2012-11-01

Introduction; The cast of characters; Vignettes of the storm; 1. Two kinds of weather; 2. The saga of the storm; 3. Weather stations in space; 4. Lights in the night: the signature of the storm; 5. A walking tour of the magnetosphere; 6. The sun: where it all begins; 7. Nowcasting and forecasting storms in space; 8. Technology and the risks from storms in space; 9. A conversation with Joe Allen; 10. Manned exploration and space weather hazards; 11. The present and future of space weather forecasting; Mathematical appendix. A closer look; Glossary; Figure captions.

Space Weather Influence on the Earth wheat markets: past, present, and future.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pustil'Nik, Lev

We consider problem of a possible influence of unfavorable states of the space weather on agriculture market through chain of connections: "space weather"-"earth weather"-"agriculture crops"-"price reaction". We show that new manifestations of "space weather"-"earth weather" relations discovered in the last time allow to revise wide field of expected solar-terrestrial connections. In the previous works we proposed possible mechanisms of wheat market reaction in the form of price bursts on the specific unfavorable states of space weather. We show that implementation of considered "price reaction scenarios" is possible only for condition of simultaneous realization of several necessary conditions: high sensitivity of local earth weather in selected region to space weather; state of "high risk agriculture" in selected agriculture zone; high sensitivity of agricultural market to possible deficit of supply. Results of previous works (I, II) included application of this approach to wheat market in Medieval England and to modern USA durum market showed that real connection between wheat price bursts and space weather state is observed with high confidence level. The aim of present work is answer on the question, why wheat markets in one region are sensitive to space weather factor, while another regional wheat markets demonstrate absolute indifferent reaction on this factor. For this aim we consider distribution of sensitivity of wheat markets in Europe to space weather as function of localization in different climatic zones. We analyze giant database of 95 European wheat markets from 14 countries during about 600-year period (1260-1912). We show that observed sensitivity of wheat market to space weather effects controlled, first of all, by type of predominant climate in different zones of agriculture. Wheat markets in the North and part of Central Europe (England, Iceland, Holland) shows reliable sensitivity to space weather in minimum states of solar activity with low solar wind, high cosmic ray flux and North Atlantic cloudiness, caused by CR excess, with negative sequences for wheat agriculture in this humid zone. In the same time wheat markets in the South Europe (Spain, Italy) show reliable sensitivity to space weather state in the opposite (maximum) phase of solar activity with strong solar wind, low cosmic ray flux and deficit of CR input in cloudiness in North Atlantic with next deficit of precipitations in the arid zones of the South Europe. In the same time the large part of markets in the Central Europe zone, functioned far from "high risk agriculture state" show the absence of any effects-responses on space weather. This asymmetry is in accordance with model expectation in the frame of proposed approach. For extremely case of the Iceland agriculture we show that drop of agriculture production in unfavorable states of space weather leads to mass mortality from famines correlated with phase of solar activity with high confi- dence level. We discuss possible increasing of sensitivity of wheat markets to space weather effects in condition of drastic and fast change of modern climate, caused by global warming of the Earth atmosphere with fast and unexpected shift of numerous agriculture regions in the world to state of "high risk agriculture zone". Publications on the theme of review: I. "INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY ON THE STATE OF THE WHEAT MARKET IN MEDIEVAL ENGLAND", Solar Physics 223: 335-356, 2004. c 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers II. "SPACE CLIMATE MANIFESTATION IN EARTH PRICES - FROM MEDIEVAL ENGLAND UP TO MODERN U.S.A.", LEV PUSTIL'NIK and GREGORY YOM DIN, Solar Physics, 224: 473-481 c Springer 2005

Space Weather Monitoring with GOES-16: Instruments and Data Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loto'aniu, Paul; Rodriguez, Juan; Redmon, Robert; Machol, Janet; Kress, Brian; Seaton, Daniel; Darnel, Jonathan; Rowland, William; Tilton, Margaret; Denig, William; Boudouridis, Athanasios; Codrescu, Stefan; Claycomb, Abram

2017-04-01

Since their inception in the 1970s, the NOAA GOES satellites have monitored the sources of space weather on the sun and the effects of space weather at Earth. The GOES-16 spacecraft, the first of four satellites as part of the GOES-R spacecraft series mission, was launched in November 2016. The space weather instruments on GOES-16 have significantly improved capabilities over older GOES instruments. They will image the sun's atmosphere in extreme-ultraviolet and monitor solar irradiance in X-rays and UV, solar energetic particles, magnetospheric energetic particles, galactic cosmic rays, and the Earth's magnetic field. These measurements are important for providing alerts and warnings to many worldwide customers, including the NOAA National Weather Service, satellite operators, the power utilities, and NASA's human activities in space. This presentation reviews the capabilities of the GOES-16 space weather instruments and presents initial post launch data along with a discussion of calibration activities and the current status of the instruments. We also describe the space weather Level 2+ products that are being developed for the GOES-R series including solar thematic maps, automated magnetopause crossing detection and spacecraft charging estimates. These new and continuing data products will be an integral part of NOAA space weather operations in the GOES-R era.

Atmospheric and oceanographic research review, 1978. [global weather, ocean/air interactions, and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

Research activities related to global weather, ocean/air interactions, and climate are reported. The global weather research is aimed at improving the assimilation of satellite-derived data in weather forecast models, developing analysis/forecast models that can more fully utilize satellite data, and developing new measures of forecast skill to properly assess the impact of satellite data on weather forecasting. The oceanographic research goal is to understand and model the processes that determine the general circulation of the oceans, focusing on those processes that affect sea surface temperature and oceanic heat storage, which are the oceanographic variables with the greatest influence on climate. The climate research objective is to support the development and effective utilization of space-acquired data systems in climate forecast models and to conduct sensitivity studies to determine the affect of lower boundary conditions on climate and predictability studies to determine which global climate features can be modeled either deterministically or statistically.

Quantifying the VNIR Effects of Nanophase Iron Generated through the Space Weathering of Silicates: Reconciling Modeled Data with Laboratory Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legett, C., IV; Glotch, T. D.; Lucey, P. G.

2015-12-01

Space weathering is a diverse set of processes that occur on the surfaces of airless bodies due to exposure to the space environment. One of the effects of space weathering is the generation of nanophase iron particles in glassy rims on mineral grains due to sputtering of iron-bearing minerals. These particles have a size-dependent effect on visible and near infrared (VNIR) reflectance spectra with smaller diameter particles (< 50 nm) causing both reddening and darkening of the spectra with respect to unweathered material (Britt-Pieters particle behavior), while larger particles (> 300 nm) darken without reddening. Between these two sizes, a gradual shift between these two behaviors occurs. In this work, we present results from the Multiple Sphere T-Matrix (MSTM) scattering model in combination with Hapke theory to explore the particle size and iron content parameter spaces with respect to VNIR (700-1700 nm) spectral slope. Previous work has shown that the MSTM-Hapke hybrid model offers improvements over Mie-Hapke models. Virtual particles are constructed out of an arbitrary number of spheres, and each sphere is assigned a refractive index and extinction coefficient for each wavelength of interest. The model then directly solves Maxwell's Equations at every wave-particle interface to predict the scattering, extinction and absorption efficiencies. These are then put into a simplified Hapke bidirectional reflectance model that yields a predicted reflectance. Preliminary results show an area of maximum slopes for iron particle diameters < 80 nm and iron concentrations of ~1-10wt% in an amorphous silica matrix. Further model runs are planned to better refine the extent of this region. Companion laboratory work using mixtures of powdered aerogel and nanophase iron particles provides a point of comparison to modeling efforts. The effects on reflectance and emissivity values due to particle size in a nearly ideal scatterer (aerogel) are also observed with comparisons to model data.

Observations and Impact Assessments of Extreme Space Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, D. N.

2007-05-01

"Space weather" refers to conditions on the Sun, in the solar wind, and in Earth`s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere. Activity on the Sun such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections can lead to high levels of radiation in space and can cause major magnetic storms at the Earth. Space radiation can come as energetic particles or as electromagnetic emissions. Adverse conditions in the near-Earth space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids. This can lead to a variety of socioeconomic losses. Astronauts and airline passengers exposed to high levels of radiation are also at risk. Society`s vulnerability to space weather effects is an issue of increasing concern. We are dependent on technological systems that are becoming more susceptible to space weather disturbances. We also have a permanent human presence in space with the International Space Station and the President and NASA have expressed a desire to expand our human space activities with missions to the moon and Mars. This will make space weather of even greater concern in the future. In this talk I will describe many space weather effects and will describe some of the societal and economic impacts that extreme events have had.

On the interest of combining an analog model to a regression model for the adaptation of the downscaling link. Application to probabilistic prediction of precipitation over France.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chardon, Jérémy; Hingray, Benoit; Favre, Anne-Catherine

2016-04-01

Scenarios of surface weather required for the impact studies have to be unbiased and adapted to the space and time scales of the considered hydro-systems. Hence, surface weather scenarios obtained from global climate models and/or numerical weather prediction models are not really appropriated. Outputs of these models have to be post-processed, which is often carried out thanks to Statistical Downscaling Methods (SDMs). Among those SDMs, approaches based on regression are often applied. For a given station, a regression link can be established between a set of large scale atmospheric predictors and the surface weather variable. These links are then used for the prediction of the latter. However, physical processes generating surface weather vary in time. This is well known for precipitation for instance. The most relevant predictors and the regression link are also likely to vary in time. A better prediction skill is thus classically obtained with a seasonal stratification of the data. Another strategy is to identify the most relevant predictor set and establish the regression link from dates that are similar - or analog - to the target date. In practice, these dates can be selected thanks to an analog model. In this study, we explore the possibility of improving the local performance of an analog model - where the analogy is applied to the geopotential heights 1000 and 500 hPa - using additional local scale predictors for the probabilistic prediction of the Safran precipitation over France. For each prediction day, the prediction is obtained from two GLM regression models - for both the occurrence and the quantity of precipitation - for which predictors and parameters are estimated from the analog dates. Firstly, the resulting combined model noticeably allows increasing the prediction performance by adapting the downscaling link for each prediction day. Secondly, the selected predictors for a given prediction depend on the large scale situation and on the considered region. Finally, even with such an adaptive predictor identification, the downscaling link appears to be robust: for a same prediction day, predictors selected for different locations of a given region are similar and the regression parameters are consistent within the region of interest.

Space Weather in the Machine Learning Era: A Multidisciplinary Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camporeale, E.; Wing, S.; Johnson, J.; Jackman, C. M.; McGranaghan, R.

2018-01-01

The workshop entitled Space Weather: A Multidisciplinary Approach took place at the Lorentz Center, University of Leiden, Netherlands, on 25-29 September 2017. The aim of this workshop was to bring together members of the Space Weather, Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science communities to address the use of advanced techniques such as Machine Learning, Information Theory, and Deep Learning, to better understand the Sun-Earth system and to improve space weather forecasting. Although individual efforts have been made toward this goal, the community consensus is that establishing interdisciplinary collaborations is the most promising strategy for fully utilizing the potential of these advanced techniques in solving Space Weather-related problems.

Space Weather Impacts on Spacecraft Operations: Identifying and Establishing High-Priority Operational Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, G.; Reid, S.; Tranquille, C.; Evans, H.

2013-12-01

Space Weather is a multi-disciplinary and cross-domain system defined as, 'The physical and phenomenological state of natural space environments. The associated discipline aims, through observation, monitoring, analysis and modelling, at understanding and predicting the state of the Sun, the interplanetary and planetary environments, and the solar and non-solar driven perturbations that affect them, and also at forecasting and nowcasting the potential impacts on biological and technological systems'. National and Agency-level efforts to provide services addressing the myriad problems, such as ESA's SSA programme are therefore typically complex and ambitious undertakings to introduce a comprehensive suite of services aimed at a large number and broad range of end users. We focus on some of the particular threats and risks that Space Weather events pose to the Spacecraft Operations community, and the resulting implications in terms of User Requirements. We describe some of the highest-priority service elements identified as being needed by the Operations community, and outline some service components that are presently available, or under development. The particular threats and risks often vary according to orbit, so the particular User Needs for Operators at LEO, MEO and GEO are elaborated. The inter-relationship between these needed service elements and existing service components within the broader Space Weather domain is explored. Some high-priority service elements and potential correlation with Space Weather drivers include: solar array degradation and energetic proton storms; single event upsets at GEO and solar proton events and galactic cosmic rays; surface charging and deep dielectric charging at MEO and radiation belt dynamics; SEUs at LEO and the South Atlantic Anomaly and its variability. We examine the current capability to provide operational services addressing such threats and identify some advances that the Operations community can expect to benefit from in the short- and medium-term, such as: enhanced forecasting eg. using Bayesian statistics; optimization and standardization of effects tools; operations-ready real-time data tools, with customization options tailored around the operator's views; next-generation SWE-specific sensors and provision of key data to Operators.

Spectral decomposition of asteroid Itokawa based on principal component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koga, Sumire C.; Sugita, Seiji; Kamata, Shunichi; Ishiguro, Masateru; Hiroi, Takahiro; Tatsumi, Eri; Sasaki, Sho

2018-01-01

The heliocentric stratification of asteroid spectral types may hold important information on the early evolution of the Solar System. Asteroid spectral taxonomy is based largely on principal component analysis. However, how the surface properties of asteroids, such as the composition and age, are projected in the principal-component (PC) space is not understood well. We decompose multi-band disk-resolved visible spectra of the Itokawa surface with principal component analysis (PCA) in comparison with main-belt asteroids. The obtained distribution of Itokawa spectra projected in the PC space of main-belt asteroids follows a linear trend linking the Q-type and S-type regions and is consistent with the results of space-weathering experiments on ordinary chondrites and olivine, suggesting that this trend may be a space-weathering-induced spectral evolution track for S-type asteroids. Comparison with space-weathering experiments also yield a short average surface age (< a few million years) for Itokawa, consistent with the cosmic-ray-exposure time of returned samples from Itokawa. The Itokawa PC score distribution exhibits asymmetry along the evolution track, strongly suggesting that space weathering has begun saturated on this young asteroid. The freshest spectrum found on Itokawa exhibits a clear sign for space weathering, indicating again that space weathering occurs very rapidly on this body. We also conducted PCA on Itokawa spectra alone and compared the results with space-weathering experiments. The obtained results indicate that the first principal component of Itokawa surface spectra is consistent with spectral change due to space weathering and that the spatial variation in the degree of space weathering is very large (a factor of three in surface age), which would strongly suggest the presence of strong regional/local resurfacing process(es) on this small asteroid.

Data Assimilation in the Solar Wind: Challenges and First Results.

PubMed

Lang, Matthew; Browne, Philip; van Leeuwen, Peter Jan; Owens, Mathew

2017-11-01

Data assimilation (DA) is used extensively in numerical weather prediction (NWP) to improve forecast skill. Indeed, improvements in forecast skill in NWP models over the past 30 years have directly coincided with improvements in DA schemes. At present, due to data availability and technical challenges, DA is underused in space weather applications, particularly for solar wind prediction. This paper investigates the potential of advanced DA methods currently used in operational NWP centers to improve solar wind prediction. To develop the technical capability, as well as quantify the potential benefit, twin experiments are conducted to assess the performance of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) in the solar wind model ENLIL. Boundary conditions are provided by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge coronal model and synthetic observations of density, temperature, and momentum generated every 4.5 h at 0.6 AU. While in situ spacecraft observations are unlikely to be routinely available at 0.6 AU, these techniques can be applied to remote sensing of the solar wind, such as with Heliospheric Imagers or interplanetary scintillation. The LETKF can be seen to improve the state at the observation location and advect that improvement toward the Earth, leading to an improvement in forecast skill in near-Earth space for both the observed and unobserved variables. However, sharp gradients caused by the analysis of a single observation in space resulted in artificial wavelike structures being advected toward Earth. This paper is the first attempt to apply DA to solar wind prediction and provides the first in-depth analysis of the challenges and potential solutions.

Data Assimilation in the Solar Wind: Challenges and First Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, Matthew; Browne, Philip; van Leeuwen, Peter Jan; Owens, Mathew

2017-11-01

Data assimilation (DA) is used extensively in numerical weather prediction (NWP) to improve forecast skill. Indeed, improvements in forecast skill in NWP models over the past 30 years have directly coincided with improvements in DA schemes. At present, due to data availability and technical challenges, DA is underused in space weather applications, particularly for solar wind prediction. This paper investigates the potential of advanced DA methods currently used in operational NWP centers to improve solar wind prediction. To develop the technical capability, as well as quantify the potential benefit, twin experiments are conducted to assess the performance of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) in the solar wind model ENLIL. Boundary conditions are provided by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge coronal model and synthetic observations of density, temperature, and momentum generated every 4.5 h at 0.6 AU. While in situ spacecraft observations are unlikely to be routinely available at 0.6 AU, these techniques can be applied to remote sensing of the solar wind, such as with Heliospheric Imagers or interplanetary scintillation. The LETKF can be seen to improve the state at the observation location and advect that improvement toward the Earth, leading to an improvement in forecast skill in near-Earth space for both the observed and unobserved variables. However, sharp gradients caused by the analysis of a single observation in space resulted in artificial wavelike structures being advected toward Earth. This paper is the first attempt to apply DA to solar wind prediction and provides the first in-depth analysis of the challenges and potential solutions.

Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

2016-12-01

Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

NASA Dryden Flight Research Center's Space Weather Needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiley, Scott

2011-01-01

Presentation involves educating Goddard Space Weather staff about what our needs are, what type of aircraft we have and to learn what we have done in the past to minimize our exposure to Space Weather Hazards.

Space Weathering in the Thermal Infrared: Lessons from LRO Diviner and Next Steps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenhagen, B. T.; Lucey, P. G.; Glotch, T. D.; Arnold, J. A.; Bowles, N. E.; Donaldson Hanna, K. L.; Shirley, K. A.

2018-04-01

Global data from the LRO Diviner show that the thermal infrared is affected by space weathering. We will present and discuss hypotheses for the unanticipated space weathering dependence and next steps.

Lessons learned from recent geomagnetic disturbance model validation activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulkkinen, A. A.; Welling, D. T.

2017-12-01

Due to concerns pertaining to geomagnetically induced current impact on ground-based infrastructure, there has been significantly elevated interest in applying models for local geomagnetic disturbance or "delta-B" predictions. Correspondingly there has been elevated need for testing the quality of the delta-B predictions generated by the modern empirical and physics-based models. To address this need, community-wide activities were launched under the GEM Challenge framework and one culmination of the activities was the validation and selection of models that were transitioned into operations at NOAA SWPC. The community-wide delta-B action is continued under the CCMC-facilitated International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment and its "Ground Magnetic Perturbations: dBdt, delta-B, GICs, FACs" working group. The new delta-B working group builds on the past experiences and expands the collaborations to cover the entire international space weather community. In this paper, we discuss the key lessons learned from the past delta-B validation exercises and lay out the path forward for building on those experience under the new delta-B working group.

Space Weathering Rates in Lunar and Itokawa Samples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, L. P.; Berger, E. L.

2017-01-01

Space weathering alters the chemistry, microstructure, and spectral proper-ties of grains on the surfaces of airless bodies by two major processes: micrometeorite impacts and solar wind interactions. Investigating the nature of space weathering processes both in returned samples and in remote sensing observations provides information fundamental to understanding the evolution of airless body regoliths, improving our ability to determine the surface composition of asteroids, and linking meteorites to specific asteroidal parent bodies. Despite decades of research into space weathering processes and their effects, we still know very little about weathering rates. For example, what is the timescale to alter the reflectance spectrum of an ordinary chondrite meteorite to resemble the overall spectral shape and slope from an S-type asteroid? One approach to answering this question has been to determine ages of asteroid families by dynamical modeling and determine the spectral proper-ties of the daughter fragments. However, large differences exist between inferred space weathering rates and timescales derived from laboratory experiments, analysis of asteroid family spectra and the space weathering styles; estimated timescales range from 5000 years up to 108 years. Vernazza et al. concluded that solar wind interactions dominate asteroid space weathering on rapid timescales of 10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) years. Shestopalov et al. suggested that impact-gardening of regolith particles and asteroid resurfacing counteract the rapid progress of solar wind optical maturation of asteroid surfaces and proposed a space weathering timescale of 10(exp 5)-10(exp 6) years.

A Modeling Framework for Predicting the Size of Sediments Produced on Hillslopes and Supplied to Channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sklar, L. S.; Mahmoudi, M.

2016-12-01

Landscape evolution models rarely represent sediment size explicitly, despite the importance of sediment size in regulating rates of bedload sediment transport, river incision into bedrock, and many other processes in channels and on hillslopes. A key limitation has been the lack of a general model for predicting the size of sediments produced on hillslopes and supplied to channels. Here we present a framework for such a model, as a first step toward building a `geomorphic transport law' that balances mechanistic realism with computational simplicity and is widely applicable across diverse landscapes. The goal is to take as inputs landscape-scale boundary conditions such as lithology, climate and tectonics, and predict the spatial variation in the size distribution of sediments supplied to channels across catchments. The model framework has two components. The first predicts the initial size distribution of particles produced by erosion of bedrock underlying hillslopes, while the second accounts for the effects of physical and chemical weathering during transport down slopes and delivery to channels. The initial size distribution can be related to the spacing and orientation of fractures within bedrock, which depend on the stresses and deformation experienced during exhumation and on rock resistance to fracture propagation. Other controls on initial size include the sizes of mineral grains in crystalline rocks, the sizes of cemented particles in clastic sedimentary rocks, and the potential for characteristic size distributions produced by tree throw, frost cracking, and other erosional processes. To model how weathering processes transform the initial size distribution we consider the effects of erosion rate and the thickness of soil and weathered bedrock on hillslope residence time. Residence time determines the extent of size reduction, for given values of model terms that represent the potential for chemical and physical weathering. Chemical weathering potential is parameterized in terms of mean annual precipitation and temperature, and the fraction of soluble minerals. Physical weathering potential can be parameterized in terms of topographic attributes, including slope, curvature and aspect. Finally, we compare model predictions with field data from Inyo Creek in the Sierra Nevada Mtns, USA.

Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory.

PubMed

Möstl, C; Isavnin, A; Boakes, P D; Kilpua, E K J; Davies, J A; Harrison, R A; Barnes, D; Krupar, V; Eastwood, J P; Good, S W; Forsyth, R J; Bothmer, V; Reiss, M A; Amerstorfer, T; Winslow, R M; Anderson, B J; Philpott, L C; Rodriguez, L; Rouillard, A P; Gallagher, P; Nieves-Chinchilla, T; Zhang, T L

2017-07-01

We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%-35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first-order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point.

Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory

PubMed Central

Isavnin, A.; Boakes, P. D.; Kilpua, E. K. J.; Davies, J. A.; Harrison, R. A.; Barnes, D.; Krupar, V.; Eastwood, J. P.; Good, S. W.; Forsyth, R. J.; Bothmer, V.; Reiss, M. A.; Amerstorfer, T.; Winslow, R. M.; Anderson, B. J.; Philpott, L. C.; Rodriguez, L.; Rouillard, A. P.; Gallagher, P.; Nieves‐Chinchilla, T.; Zhang, T. L.

2017-01-01

Abstract We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self‐similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%–35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide‐angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first‐order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun‐Earth L5 point. PMID:28983209

Spatio-temporal modelling for assessing air pollution in Santiago de Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolis, Orietta; Camaño, Christian; Mařın, Julio C.; Sahu, Sujit K.

2017-01-01

In this work, we propose a space-time approach for studying the PM2.5 concentration in the city of Santiago de Chile. In particular, we apply the autoregressive hierarchical model proposed by [1] using the PM2.5 observations collected by a monitoring network as a response variable and numerical weather forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as covariate together with spatial and temporal (periodic) components. The approach is able to provide short-term spatio-temporal predictions of PM2.5 concentrations on a fine spatial grid (at 1km × 1km horizontal resolution.)

Fifth Space Weather Enterprise Forum Reaches New Heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Samuel P.; Babcock, Michael R.; Bonadonna, Michael F.

2011-09-01

As the world's commercial infrastructure grows more dependent on sensitive electronics and space-based technologies, the global economy is becoming increasingly vulnerable to solar storms. Experts from the federal government, academia, and the private sector met to discuss the societal effects of major solar storms and other space weather at the fifth annual Space Weather Enterprise Forum (SWEF), held on 21 June 2011 at the National Press Club in Washington, D. C. More than 200 members of the space weather community attended this year's SWEF, which focused on the consequences of severe space weather for national security, critical infrastructure, and human safety. Participants also addressed the question of how to prepare for and mitigate those consequences as the current solar cycle approaches and reaches its peak, expected in 2013. This year's forum included details of plans for a "Unified National Space Weather Capability," a new interagency initiative which will be implemented over the next two years, designed to improve forecasting, warning, and other services ahead of the coming solar maximum.

Space Weather and the State of Cardiovascular System of a Healthy Human Being

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samsonov, S. N.; Manykina, V. I.; Krymsky, G. F.; Petrova, P. G.; Palshina, A. M.; Vishnevsky, V. V.

The term "space weather" characterizes a state of the near-Earth environmental space. An organism of human being represents an open system so the change of conditions in the environment including the near-Earth environmental space influences the health state of a human being.In recent years many works devoted to the effect of space weather on the life on the Earth, and the degree of such effect has been represented from a zero-order up to apocalypse. To reveal a real effect of space weather on the health of human being the international Russian- Ukrainian experiment "Geliomed" is carried out since 2005 (http://geliomed.immsp.kiev.ua) [Vishnevsky et al., 2009]. The analysis of observational set of data has allowed to show a synchronism and globality of such effect (simultaneous manifestation of space weather parameters in a state of cardiovascular system of volunteer groups removed from each other at a distance over 6000 km). The response of volunteer' cardiovascular system to the changes of space weather parameters were observed even at insignificant values of the Earth's geomagnetic field. But even at very considerable disturbances of space weather parameters a human being healthy did not feel painful symptoms though measurements of objective physiological indices showed their changes.

Using Haines Index coupled with fire weather model predicted from high resolution LAM forecasts to asses wildfire extreme behaviour in Southern Europe.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaetani, Francesco; Baptiste Filippi, Jean; Simeoni, Albert; D'Andrea, Mirko

2010-05-01

Haines Index (HI) was developed by USDA Forest Service to measure the atmosphere's contribution to the growth potential of a wildfire. The Haines Index combines two atmospheric factors that are known to have an effect on wildfires: Stability and Dryness. As operational tools, HI proved its ability to predict plume dominated high intensity wildfires. However, since HI does not take into account the fuel continuity, composition and moisture conditions and the effects of wind and topography on fire behaviour, its use as forecasting tool should be carefully considered. In this work we propose the use of HI, predicted from HR Limited Area Model forecasts, coupled with a Fire Weather model (i.e., RISICO system) fully operational in Italy since 2003. RISICO is based on dynamic models able to represent in space and in time the effects that environment and vegetal physiology have on fuels and, in turn, on the potential behaviour of wildfires. The system automatically acquires from remote databases a thorough data-set of input information both of in situ and spatial nature. Meteorological observations, radar data, Limited Area Model weather forecasts, EO data, and fuel data are managed by a Unified Interface able to process a wide set of different data. Specific semi-physical models are used in the system to simulate the dynamics of the fuels (load and moisture contents of dead and live fuel) and the potential fire behaviour (rate of spread and linear intensity). A preliminary validation of this approach will be provided with reference to Sardinia and Corsica Islands, two major islands of the Mediterranean See frequently affected by extreme plume dominated wildfires. A time series of about 3000 wildfires burnt in Sardinia and Corsica in 2007 and 2008 will be used to evaluate the capability of HI coupled with the outputs of the Fire Weather model to forecast the actual risk in time and in space.

Space Weather - Current Capabilities, Future Requirements, and the Path to Improved Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, Ian

2016-07-01

We present an overview of Space Weather activities and future opportunities including assessments of current status and capabilities, knowledge gaps, and future directions in relation to both observations and modeling. The review includes input from the scientific community including from SCOSTEP scientific discipline representatives (SDRs), COSPAR Main Scientific Organizers (MSOs), and SCOSTEP/VarSITI leaders. The presentation also draws on results from the recent activities related to the production of the COSPAR-ILWS Space Weather Roadmap "Understanding Space Weather to Shield Society" [Schrijver et al., Advances in Space Research 55, 2745 (2015) http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2015.03.023], from the activities related to the United Nations (UN) Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) actions in relation to the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space (LTS), and most recently from the newly formed and ongoing efforts of the UN COPUOS Expert Group on Space Weather.

Space Weathering of Itokawa Particles: Implications for Regolith Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berger, Eve L.; Keller, Lindsay P.

2015-01-01

Space weathering processes such as solar wind irradiation and micrometeorite impacts are known to alter the the properties of regolith materials exposed on airless bodies. The rates of space weathering processes however, are poorly constrained for asteroid regoliths, with recent estimates ranging over many orders of magnitude. The return of surface samples by JAXA's Hayabusa mission to asteroid 25143 Itokawa, and their laboratory analysis provides "ground truth" to anchor the timescales for space weathering processes on airless bodies. Here, we use the effects of solar wind irradiation and the accumulation of solar flare tracks recorded in Itokawa grains to constrain the rates of space weathering and yield information about regolith dynamics on these timescales.

ICPP: Approach for Understanding Complexity of Plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Tetsuya

2000-10-01

In this talk I wish to present an IT system that could promote Science of Complexity. In order to deal with a seemingly `complex' phenomenon, which means `beyond analytical manipulation', computer simulation is a viable powerful tool. However, complexity implies a concept beyond the horizon of reductionism. Therefore, rather than simply solving a complex phenomenon for a given boundary condition, one must establish an intelligent way of attacking mutual evolution of a system and its environment. NIFS-TCSC has been developing a prototype system that consists of supercomputers, virtual reality devices and high-speed network system. Let us explain this by picking up a global atmospheric circulation group, global oceanic circulation group and local weather prediction group. Local weather prediction group predicts the local change of the weather such as the creation of cloud and rain in the near future under the global conditions obtained by the global atmospheric and ocean groups. The global groups run simulations by modifying the local heat source/sink evaluated by the local weather prediction and then obtain the global conditions in the next time step. By repeating such a feedback performance one can predict the mutual evolution of the local system and its environment. Mutual information exchanges among multiple groups are carried out instantaneously by the networked common virtual reality space in which 3-D global and local images of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation and the cloud and rain maps are arbitrarily manipulated by any of the groups and commonly viewed. The present networking system has a great advantage that any simulation groups can freely and arbitrarily change their alignment, so that mutual evolution of any stratum system can become tractable by utilizing this network system.

Overview of NASA Heliophysics and the Science of Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talaat, E. R.

2017-12-01

In this paper, an overview is presented on the various activities within NASA that address space weather-related observations, model development, and research to operations. Specific to space weather, NASA formulates and implements, through the Heliophysics division, a national research program for understanding the Sun and its interactions with the Earth and the Solar System and how these phenomena impact life and society. NASA researches and prototypes new mission and instrument capabilities in this area, providing new physics-based algorithms to advance the state of solar, space physics, and space weather modeling.

Enhancing the Awareness of the Interaction of the Space Weather and Public: Some Case Studies in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulunay, Y.; Tulunay, E.; Kocabas, Z.; Altuntas, E.; Yapici, T.; Senalp, E. T.; Hippler, R.

2009-04-01

Space Weather has important effects on many systems and peripherals that human interacts with. However, most of the people are not aware of those interactions. During the FP6 SWEETS, COST 724 and the ‘I love my Sun' activities it was aimed to create basis to bring together academicians from universities, experts from industry, scientific institutes, and the public, especially the school children of age 7-11, in order to enhance the awareness of space weather effects and to discuss appropriate countermeasures by different education and promotion methods including non-technical ones. This work mentions the activities performed in Turkey within the framework. Since 1990, a small group at METU has been developing data driven models in order to forecast some critical system parameters related with the near-Earth space processes. With the background on the subject the group feels responsible to organise activities in Turkey to inform public on enhancing the awareness of space weather effects. In order to inform and educate public on their interaction with the Space Weather, distinct social activities which take quick and strong attention were organised. Those include art shows and workshops, quizes, movies and entertainments, special programs for school children of age 7-11 under the ‘I love my Sun' activities, press releases, audio-visual media including webpages [Tulunay, 2007]. The impact of the activities can be evaluated considering the before and after activity record materials of the participants. For instance, under the ‘I love my Sun' activities, the school children drew pictures related with Sun before and after the informative programs. The performance of reaching the school children on the subject is very promising. Sub-activities conducted under the action are: 1. Space Weather Dance Show "Sonnensturm" 2. Web Quiz all over Europe: In Türkiye 3. Space Weather / Sun / Heliospheric Public Science Festivals in 27 Countries: In Türkiye 4. Space Weather on Tour-Mobile Bus 5. Rocket / balloon launch participation for European web quiz winner and journalists 6. Space Weather / Solar / Aurora / Rocket / Balloon movie production for TV 7. Space Weather / Sun /Heliospheric public science festival & public fair in Schwerin castle (main SWEETS festival during ESW 2007) 8. Space Weather telescope video link with Australian (Antarctic Mawson station) and Japanese locations for Schwerin castle festival (no. 7 deliverable) 9. Space Weather planetarium show in Poland, Finland, France and Portugal (4 new languages) 10. Updated Space Weather / Solar CD-Rom / DVD in 7 new languages, poster / flyer 11. Cosmic ray spark chambers 12. Space Weather storm forecast map 13. Mirror system for solar movie 14. FP6 SWEETS / IHY / COST 724 Case Sub-project: "I LOVE MY SUN" (An outreach Activity in Turkey: The Space Weather and the Sun as conceived by the School Children of age 7-11) 15. Press Releases 16. FP6 SWEETS Related Art 17. Turkish Translations in IHY and COST webpages 18. Impact of the SWEETS References Tulunay Y. (2007), FP6 SWEETS (SSA) Activity Report of the Participant No. 16: the METU in Ankara, Türkiye, 31 December 2007, www.ae.metu.edu.tr/~cost.

Employing Numerical Weather Models to Enhance Fire Weather and Fire Behavior Predictions

Treesearch

Joseph J. Charney; Lesley A. Fusina

2006-01-01

This paper presents an assessment of fire weather and fire behavior predictions produced by a numerical weather prediction model similar to those used by operational weather forecasters when preparing their forecasts. The PSU/NCAR MM5 model is used to simulate the weather conditions associated with three fire episodes in June 2005. Extreme fire behavior was reported...

ESA SSA Space Radiation Expert Service Centre: the Importance of Community Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosby, Norma; Dierckxsens, Mark; Kruglanski, Michel; De Donder, Erwin; Calders, Stijn; Messios, Neophytos; Glover, Alexi

2017-04-01

End-users in a wide range of sectors both in space and on the ground are affected by space weather. In the frame of its Space Situational Awareness (SSA) programme (http://swe.ssa.esa.int/) the European Space Agency (ESA) is establishing a Space Weather (SWE) Service Network to support end-users in three ways: mitigate the effects of space weather on their systems, reduce costs, and improve reliability. Almost 40 expert groups from institutes and organisations across Europe contribute to this Network organised in five Expert Service Centres (ESCs) - Solar Weather, Heliospheric Weather, Space Radiation, Ionospheric Weather, Geomagnetic Conditions. To understand the end-user needs, the ESCs are supported by the SSCC (SSA Space Weather Coordination Centre) that offers first line support to the end-users. Here we present the mission of the Space Radiation ESC (R-ESC) (http://swe.ssa.esa.int/space-radiation) and the space domain services it supports. Furthermore, we describe how the R-ESC project complements past and ongoing projects both on national level as well as international (e.g. EU projects), emphasizing the importance of inter-disciplinary communication between different communities ranging from scientists, engineers to end-users. Such collaboration is needed if basic science is to be used most efficiently for the development of products and tools that provide end-users with what they actually need. Additionally, feedback from the various communities (projects) is also essential when defining future projects.

Identifying "Carrington Events" in Solar, Solar Wind, and Magnetospheric Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, C. T.; Riley, P.; Luhmann, J. G.; Lai, H.

2016-12-01

Extreme space weather begins when extraordinary levels of stored magnetic energy in the photosphere rapidly destabilizes. This destabilization generally releases a rapidly expelled plasma and magnetic flux rope. Large fluxes of highly relativistic particles signal the event and at Earth precede the expelled flux rope. The most recent such solar event did not encounter the Earth, but was recorded by STEREO A on July 23, 2012. The energy density in the relativistic particles that preceded the rapidly expanding magnetic cloud was so intense that the compression front expanded with a sub fast mode speed (i.e. `subsonically') and the compression front became a slow mode wave. The peak magnetic field in the rope was 109 nT, larger than any previously reported field at 1 AU in the solar wind. An equally fast disturbance left the Sun on September 1, 1859, and caused intense induced currents when it reached the Earth. It is likely that at least some of the magnetospheric currents were caused by the accompanying magnetic cloud, but magnetospheric diagnostics were scarce during this event. This first space weather event became the defining occurrence of extreme space weather. A second modern event not generally recognized as "Carrington" class, but arguably super-Carrington, arrived on August 4, 1972. Between the Apollo 16 and 17 missions. It was a strong producer of geomagnetic induced currents, but produced only a weak ring current, possibly because the part of the magnetic cloud in contact with the Earth had a polarity that did not couple the solar wind momentum flux to the magnetosphere. The pressure wave reached 1 AU in the shortest time of any recorded solar event and brought an energetic particle flux that would have harmed the astronauts had they been in space. To identify which solar events are capable of producing the most extreme space weather events, we must identify those that are expelled toward the Earth at the highest speeds. How these events manifest their extreme behavior at Earth depends on the magnetic configuration of the rope that interacts with the Earth's magnetosphere. Thus, predicting the magnetic structure of the rope is also important. In this talk, we compare these three Carrington class events to understand both how they might affect modern society, and how their effects might be predicted and mitigated.

Space weather: Why are magnetospheric physicists interested in solar explosive phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koskinen, H. E. J.; Pulkkinen, T. I.

That solar activity drives magnetospheric dynamics has for a long time been the basis of solar-terrestrial physics. Numerous statistical studies correlating sunspots, 10.7 cm radiation, solar flares, etc., with various magnetospheric and geomagnetic parameters have been performed. However, in studies of magnetospheric dynamics the role of the Sun has often remained in the background and only the actual solar wind impinging the magnetosphere has gained most of the attention. During the last few years a new applied field of solar-terrestrial physics, space weather, has emerged. The term refers to variable particle and field conditions in our space environment, which may be hazardous to space-borne or ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life and health. When the modern society is becoming increasingly dependent on space technology, the need for better modelling and also forecasting of space weather becomes urgent. While for post analysis of magnetospheric phenomena it is quite sufficient to include observations from the magnetospheric boundaries out to L1 where SOHO is located, these observations do not provide enough lead-time to run space weather forecasting models and to distribute the forecasts to potential customers. For such purposes we need improved physical understanding and models to predict which active processes on the Sun will impact the magnetosphere and what their expected consequences are. An important change of view on the role of the Sun as the origin of magnetospheric disturbances has taken place during last 10--20 years. For a long time, the solar flares were thought to be the most geoeffective solar phenomena. Now the attention has shifted much more towards coronal mass ejections and the SOHO coronal observations seem to have turned the epoch irreversibly. However, we are not yet ready to make reliable perdictions of the terrestrial environment based on CME observations. From the space weather viewpoint, the key questions are when a CME will be ejected, will it hit the Earth, what will its density and speed be, and how the magnetic field will be wrapped around the plasma cloud. This is clearly an enormous modelling task, but very forthwhile to carry further. Also forecasting of the solar energetic particle events would be very usefule as they form the most hazardous single effect on spaceflight, be that on the Space Station, on the Moon, or even further. We illustrate the chain of effects from the solar atmosphere to near-Earth space using some of the CME-associated magnetic storm events from the SOHO era.

Identifying crash-prone traffic conditions under different weather on freeways.

PubMed

Xu, Chengcheng; Wang, Wei; Liu, Pan

2013-09-01

Understanding the relationships between traffic flow characteristics and crash risk under adverse weather conditions will help highway agencies develop proactive safety management strategies to improve traffic safety in adverse weather conditions. The primary objective is to develop separate crash risk prediction models for different weather conditions. The crash data, weather data, and traffic data used in this study were collected on the I-880N freeway in California in 2008 and 2010. This study considered three different weather conditions: clear weather, rainy weather, and reduced visibility weather. The preliminary analysis showed that there was some heterogeneity in the risk estimates for traffic flow characteristics by weather conditions, and that the crash risk prediction model for all weather conditions cannot capture the impacts of the traffic flow variables on crash risk under adverse weather conditions. The Bayesian random intercept logistic regression models were applied to link the likelihood of crash occurrence with various traffic flow characteristics under different weather conditions. The crash risk prediction models were compared to their corresponding logistic regression model. It was found that the random intercept model improved the goodness-of-fit of the crash risk prediction models. The model estimation results showed that the traffic flow characteristics contributing to crash risk were different across different weather conditions. The speed difference between upstream and downstream stations was found to be significant in each crash risk prediction model. Speed difference between upstream and downstream stations had the largest impact on crash risk in reduced visibility weather, followed by that in rainy weather. The ROC curves were further developed to evaluate the predictive performance of the crash risk prediction models under different weather conditions. The predictive performance of the crash risk model for clear weather was better than those of the crash risk models for adverse weather conditions. The research results could promote a better understanding of the impacts of traffic flow characteristics on crash risk under adverse weather conditions, which will help transportation professionals to develop better crash prevention strategies in adverse weather. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A space weather information service based upon remote and in-situ measurements of coronal mass ejections heading for Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartkorn, O. A.; Ritter, B.; Meskers, A. J. H.; Miles, O.; Russwurm, M.; Scully, S.; Roldan, A.; Juestel, P.; Reville, V.; Lupu, S.; Ruffenach, A.

2014-12-01

The Earth's magnetosphere is formed as a consequence of the interaction between the planet's magnetic field and the solar wind, a continuous plasma stream from the Sun. A number of different solar wind phenomena have been studied over the past forty years with the intention of understandingand forcasting solar behavior and space weather. In particular, Earth-bound interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can significantly disturb the Earth's magnetosphere for a short time and cause geomagnetic storms. We present a mission concept consisting of six spacecraft that are equally spaced in a heliocentric orbit at 0.72 AU. These spacecraft will monitor the plasma properties, the magnetic field's orientation and magnitude, and the 3D-propagation trajectory of CMEs heading for Earth. The primary objective of this mission is to increase space weather forecasting time by means of a near real-time information service, that is based upon in-situ and remote measurements of the CME properties. The mission secondary objective is the improvement of scientific space weather models. In-situ measurements are performed using a Solar Wind Analyzer instrumentation package and flux gate magnetometers. For remote measurements, coronagraphs are employed. The proposed instruments originate from other space missions with the intention to reduce mission costs and to streamline the mission design process. Communication with the six identical spacecraft is realized via a deep space network consisting of six ground stations. This network provides an information service that is in uninterrupted contact with the spacecraft, allowing for continuos space weather monitoring. A dedicated data processing center will handle all the data, and forward the processed data to the SSA Space Weather Coordination Center. This organization will inform the general public through a space weather forecast. The data processing center will additionally archive the data for the scientific community. This concept mission allows for major advances in space weather forecasting and the scientific modeling of space weather.

The building loads analysis system thermodynamics (BLAST) program, Version 2. 0: input booklet. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sowell, E.

1979-06-01

The Building Loads Analysis and System Thermodynamics (BLAST) program is a comprehensive set of subprograms for predicting energy consumption in buildings. There are three major subprograms: (1) the space load predicting subprogram, which computes hourly space loads in a building or zone based on user input and hourly weather data; (2) the air distribution system simulation subprogram, which uses the computed space load and user inputs describing the building air-handling system to calculate hot water or steam, chilled water, and electric energy demands; and (3) the central plant simulation program, which simulates boilers, chillers, onsite power generating equipment and solarmore » energy systems and computes monthly and annual fuel and electrical power consumption and plant life cycle cost.« less

TEM Analyses of Itokawa Regolith Grains and Lunar Soil Grains to Directly Determine Space Weathering Rates on Airless Bodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berger, Eve L.; Keller, Lindsay P.; Christoffersen, Roy

2016-01-01

Samples returned from the moon and Asteroid Itokawa by NASA's Apollo Missions and JAXA's Hayabusa Mission, respectively, provide a unique record of their interaction with the space environment. Space weathering effects result from micrometeorite impact activity and interactions with the solar wind. While the effects of solar wind interactions, ion implantation and solar flare particle track accumulation, have been studied extensively, the rate at which these effects accumulate in samples on airless bodies has not been conclusively determined. Results of numerical modeling and experimental simulations do not converge with observations from natural samples. We measured track densities and rim thicknesses of three olivine grains from Itokawa and multiple olivine and anorthite grains from lunar soils of varying exposure ages. Samples were prepared for analysis using a Leica EM UC6 ultramicrotome and an FEI Quanta 3D dual beam focused ion beam scanning electron microscope (FIB-SEM). Transmission electron microscope (TEM) analyses were performed on the JEOL 2500SE 200kV field emission STEM. The solar wind damaged rims on lunar anorthite grains are amorphous, lack inclusions, and are compositionally similar to the host grain. The rim width increases as a smooth function of exposure age until it levels off at approximately 180 nm after approximately 20 My (Fig. 1). While solar wind ion damage can only accumulate while the grain is in a direct line of sight to the Sun, solar flare particles can penetrate to mm-depths. To assess whether the track density accurately predicts surface exposure, we measured the rim width and track density in olivine and anorthite from the surface of rock 64455, which was never buried and has a surface exposure age of 2 My based on isotopic measurements. The rim width from 64455 (60-70nm) plots within error of the well-defined trend for solar wind amorphized rims in Fig. 1. Measured solar flare track densities are accurately reflecting the surface exposure of the grains. Track densities correlate with the amorphous rim thicknesses. While the space-weathered rims of anorthite grains are amorphous, the space-weathered rims on both Itokawa and lunar olivine grains show solar wind damaged rims that are not amorphous. Instead, the rims are nanocrystalline with high dislocation densities and sparse inclusions of nanophase Fe metal. The rim thicknesses on the olivine grains also correlate with track density. The Itokawa olivine grains have track densities that indicate surface exposures of approximately 10(exp 5) years. Longer exposures (up to approximately 10(exp 7) years) do not amorphize the rims, as evidenced by lunar soil olivines with high track densities (approximately 10(exp 11) cm(exp -2)). From the combined data, shown in Fig. 1, it is clear that olivine is damaged (but not amorphized) more rapidly by the solar wind compared to anorthite. The olivine damaged rim forms quickly (in approximately 10(exp 6) y) and saturates at approximately 120nm with longer exposure time. The anorthite damaged rims form more slowly, amorphize, and grow thicker than the olivine rims. This is in agreement with numerical modeling data which predicts that solar wind damaged rims on anorthite will be thicker than olivine. However, the models predict that both olivine and anorthite rims will amorphize and reach equilibrium widths in less than 10(exp 3) y, in contrast to what is observed for natural samples. Laboratory irradiation experiments, which show rapid formation of fully amorphous and blistered surfaces from simulated solar wind exposures are also in contrast to observations of natural samples. These results suggest that there is a flux dependence on the type and extent of irradiation damage that develops in olivine. This flux dependence suggests that great caution be used in extrapolating between high-flux laboratory experiments and the natural case, as demonstrated by. We constrain the space weathering rate through analysis of returned samples. Provided that the track densities and the solar wind damaged rim widths exhibited by the Itokawa grains are typical of the fine-grained regions of Itokawa, then the space weathering rate is on the order of 10(exp 5) y. Space weathering effects in lunar soils saturate within a few My of exposure while those in Itokawa regolith grains formed in approximately 10(exp 5) y. Olivine and anorthite respond differently to solar wind irradiation. The space weathering effects in olivine are particularly difficult to reconcile with laboratory irradiation studies and numerical models. Additional measurements, experiments, and modeling are required to resolve the discrepancies among the observations and calculations involving solar wind amorphization of different minerals on airless bodies.

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, Jim Roberts, a scientist with the Earth System Research Laboratory's Office of Atmospheric Research for NOAA, left, and Kristin Calhoun, a research scientist with NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory, speak to members of the media at a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

GOES-S NASA Social

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-28

Mic Woltman, chief of the Fleet Systems Integration Branch of NASA's Launch Services Program, left, and Gabriel Rodriguez-Mena, a United Launch Alliance systems test engineer, speak to members of social media in the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium. The briefing focused on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

GOES-S NASA Social

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-28

Pam Sullivan, NASA's GOES-R flight director, left, and A.J. Sandora, Lockheed Martin's GOES-R Series Mechanical Operations Assembly, Test and Launch Operations (ATLO) manager, speak to members of social media in the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium. The briefing focused on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) (1995)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleck, Bernhard; St. Cyr, O. Chris (Editor)

2014-01-01

SOHO is the most comprehensive space mission ever devoted to the study of the Sun and its nearby cosmic environment known as the heliosphere. It was launched in December 1995 and is currently funded at least through the end of 2016. SOHO's twelve instruments observe and measure structures and processes occurring inside as well as outside the Sun, and which reach well beyond Earth's orbit into the heliosphere. While designed to study the "quiet" Sun, the new capabilities and combination of several SOHO instruments have revolutionized space weather research. This article gives a brief mission overview, summarizes selected highlight results, and describes SOHO's contributions to space weather research. These include cotemporaneous EUV imaging of activity in the Sun's corona and white light imaging of coronal mass ejections in the extended corona, magnetometry in the Sun's atmosphere, imaging of far side activity, measurements to predict solar proton storms, and monitoring solar wind plasma at the L1 Lagrangian point, 1.5 million kilometers upstream of Earth.

Validation of the SWMF Magnetosphere: Fields and Particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, D. T.; Ridley, A. J.

2009-05-01

The Space Weather Modeling Framework has been developed at the University of Michigan to allow many independent space environment numerical models to be executed simultaneously and coupled together to create a more accurate, all-encompassing system. This work explores the capabilities of the framework when using the BATS-R-US MHD code, Rice Convection Model (RCM), the Ridley Ionosphere Model (RIM), and the Polar Wind Outflow Model (PWOM). Ten space weather events, ranging from quiet to extremely stormy periods, are modeled by the framework. All simulations are executed in a manner that mimics an operational environment where fewer resources are available and predictions are required in a timely manner. The results are compared against in-situ measurements of magnetic fields from GOES, Polar, Geotail, and Cluster satellites as well as MPA particle measurements from the LANL geosynchronous spacecraft. Various metrics are calculated to quantify performance. Results when using only two to all four components are compared to evaluate the increase in performance as new physics are included in the system.

A contribution towards establishing more comfortable space weather to cope with increased human space passengers for ISS shuttles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalu, A.

Space Weather is a specialized scienctific descipline in Meteorology which has recently emerged from man's continued research efforts to create a familiar spacecraft environment which is physiologically stable and life sustaining for astronauts and human passengers in distant space travels. As the population of human passengers in space shuttles rapidly increases, corresponding research on sustained micro-climate of spacecrafts is considered necessary and timely. This is because existing information is not meant for a large population in spacecrafts. The paper therefore discusses the role of meteorology (specifically micrometeorology) in relation to internal communication, spacecraft instrumentation and physiologic comfort of astronauts and space passengers (the later may not necessarily be trained astronauts, but merely business men or tourist space travellers for business transactions in the International Space Station (ISS)). It is recognized that me eorology which is a fundamental science amongt multidiscplinary sciences has been found to be vital in space travels and communication. Space weather therefore appears in slightly different format where temperature and humidity changes and variability within the spacecraft exert very significant influences on the efficiency of astronauts and the effectiveness of the various delicate instrument gadgets aimed at reducing the frequency of computer failures and malfunction of other instruments on which safety of the spacecraft depends. Apart from the engineering and technological problems which space scientists must have to overcome when human population in space shuttles increases as we now expect, based on evidence from successful missions to ISS, the maint enace of physiologic comfort state of astronauts, which, as far as scientifically possible, should be as near as possible to their Earth-Atmosphere condition. This is one of the most important and also most difficult conditions to attain. It demands a mor e detailed research on space thermodynamics as future passengers to the ISS must be assured of their physiologic comfort and safety before they could accept to pay the huge cost for the space travels. The presentation of the paper is divided into the following four basic sections: (a) Take-off or Blast-off (b) Cruising and SpaceWalk (c) Re-entry into the Terrestial Atmosphere, and (d) Landing and Rescue Operations. Experience shows that each of the above four distinct stages of space travel demands a careful assessment of the micro-climate of the indoor spacecraft and these will each be investigated to ensure that relevant micro - climate information that will maintain effective physiologic comfort level of astronauts and specimen will be attained. Finally, the paper discusses a method to predict indoor weather condition in spacecrafts based on observed ambient data especially temperature and humidity and micro-indoor air circulation for differenct timescales during space shuttles to the ISS. An active multidisciplinary research in which Engineers, Meteorologists, Medical Experts, etc., will work together collaboratively on the problem on ambient indoor space weather for increased human population during proposed International Space Station shuttle missions later this century is strongly recommended.

Surface Exposure Ages of Space-Weathered Grains from Asteroid 25143 Itokawa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, L. P.; Berger, E. L.; Christoffersen, R.

2015-01-01

Space weathering processes such as solar wind ion irradiation and micrometeorite impacts are widely known to alter the properties of regolith materials exposed on airless bodies. The rates of space weathering processes however, are poorly constrained for asteroid regoliths, with recent estimates ranging over many orders of magnitude. The return of surface samples by JAXA's Hayabusa mission to asteroid 25143 Itokawa, and their laboratory analysis provides "ground truth" to anchor the timescales for space weathering processes on airless bodies.

Space Weathering: Laboratory Analyses and In-Situ Instrumentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bentley, M. S.; Ball, A. J.; Dyar, M. D.; Pieters, C. M.; Wright, I. P.; Zarnecki, J. C.

2005-01-01

Space weathering is now understood to be a key modifier of visible and near infrared reflectance spectra of airless bodies. Believed to be caused by vapour recondensation after either ion sputtering or impact vaporization, space weathering has been successfully simulated in the laboratory over the past few years. The optical changes caused by space weathering have been attributed to the accumulation of sub-microscopic iron on regolith grain surfaces. Such fine-grained metallic iron has distinctive magnetic properties that can be used to study it.

Updates on CCMC Activities and GSFC Space Weather Services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhengm Y.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Maddox, M.; Taktakishvili, A.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.;

The Impact of Current and Future Polar Orbiting Satellite Data on Numerical Weather Prediction at NASA/GSFC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, Robert

2004-01-01

The lack of adequate observational data continues to be recognized as a major factor limiting both atmospheric research and numerical prediction on a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Since the advent of meteorological satellites in the 1960's, a considerable research effort has been directed toward the design of space-borne meteorological sensors, the development of optimal methods for the utilization of these data, (and an assessment of the influence of existing satellite data and the potential influence of future satellite observations on numerical weather prediction. This has included both Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). OSEs are conducted to evaluate the impact of specific observations or classes of observations on analyses and forecasts. While OSEs are performed with existing data, OSSEs are conducted to evaluate the potential for future observing systems to improve-NWP, as well as to evaluate trade-offs in observing system design, and to develop and test improved methods for data assimilation. At the conference, results from OSEs to evaluate satellite data sets that have recently become available to the global observing system, such as AIRS and Seawinds, and results from OSSEs to determine the potential impact of space-based lidar winds will be presented.

Space-weather assets developed by the French space-physics community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouillard, A. P.; Pinto, R. F.; Brun, A. S.; Briand, C.; Bourdarie, S.; Dudok De Wit, T.; Amari, T.; Blelly, P.-L.; Buchlin, E.; Chambodut, A.; Claret, A.; Corbard, T.; Génot, V.; Guennou, C.; Klein, K. L.; Koechlin, L.; Lavarra, M.; Lavraud, B.; Leblanc, F.; Lemorton, J.; Lilensten, J.; Lopez-Ariste, A.; Marchaudon, A.; Masson, S.; Pariat, E.; Reville, V.; Turc, L.; Vilmer, N.; Zucarello, F. P.

2016-12-01

We present a short review of space-weather tools and services developed and maintained by the French space-physics community. They include unique data from ground-based observatories, advanced numerical models, automated identification and tracking tools, a range of space instrumentation and interconnected virtual observatories. The aim of the article is to highlight some advances achieved in this field of research at the national level over the last decade and how certain assets could be combined to produce better space-weather tools exploitable by space-weather centres and customers worldwide. This review illustrates the wide range of expertise developed nationally but is not a systematic review of all assets developed in France.

Review on space weather in Latin America. 1. The beginning from space science research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, J. Americo

2016-11-01

The present work is the first of a three-part review on space weather in Latin America. It comprises the evolution of several Latin American institutions investing in space science since the 1960s, focusing on the solar-terrestrial interactions, which today is commonly called space weather. Despite recognizing advances in space research in all of Latin America, this review is restricted to the development observed in three countries in particular (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational centers for monitoring space weather. The review starts with a brief summary of the first groups to start working with space science in Latin America. This first part of the review closes with the current status and the research interests of these groups, which are described in relation to the most significant works and challenges of the next decade in order to aid in the solving of space weather open issues.

Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report - Extended Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2009-01-01

The effects of space weather on modern technological systems are well documented in both the technical literature and popular accounts. Most often cited perhaps is the collapse within 90 seconds of northeastern Canada's Hydro-Quebec power grid during the great geomagnetic storm of March 1989, which left millions of people without electricity for up to 9 hours. This event exemplifies the dramatic impact that severe space weather can have on a technology upon which modern society critically depends. Nearly two decades have passed since the March 1989 event. During that time, awareness of the risks of severe space weather has increased among the affected industries, mitigation strategies have been developed, new sources of data have become available, new models of the space environment have been created, and a national space weather infrastructure has evolved to provide data, alerts, and forecasts to an increasing number of users. Now, 20 years later and approaching a new interval of increased solar activity, how well equipped are we to manage the effects of space weather? Have recent technological developments made our critical technologies more or less vulnerable? How well do we understand the broader societal and economic impacts of severe space weather events? Are our institutions prepared to cope with the effects of a 'space weather Katrina,' a rare, but according to the historical record, not inconceivable eventuality? On May 22 and 23, 2008, a one-and-a-half-day workshop held in Washington, D.C., under the auspices of the National Research Council's (NRC's) Space Studies Board brought together representatives of industry, the federal government, and the social science community to explore these and related questions. The key themes, ideas, and insights that emerged during the presentations and discussions are summarized in 'Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report' (The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2008), which was prepared by the Committee on the Societal and Economic Impacts of Severe Space Weather Events: A Workshop. The present document is an expanded summary of that report.

Exploiting OSPaN (Optical Solar Patrol Network) Data to Understand Large-Scale Solar Eruptions Impacting Space Weather

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-28

shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number...by CMEs; (2) the angular orientation of newly emerged magnetic flux on the solar surface relative to stable filaments plays a role in how rapidly the...potential of exploiting ISOON observations to increase our understanding of solar eruptions, a requirement for improved prediction and mitigation of space

Weather and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Recommendations for using space observations of weather and climate to aid in solving earth based problems are given. Special attention was given to: (1) extending useful forecasting capability of space systems, (2) reducing social, economic, and human losses caused by weather, (3) development of space system capability to manage and control air pollutant concentrations, and (4) establish mechanisms for the national examination of deliberate and inadvertent means for modifying weather and climate.

The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) Code: Description and Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrow, Charles W.; Bartel, Timothy James

The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) computer code was developed at Sandia National Laboratories as part of their nuclear launch accident consequences analysis suite of computer codes. The purpose of IAT is to predict the initial puff/plume rise resulting from either a solid rocket propellant or liquid rocket fuel fire. The code generates initial conditions for subsequent atmospheric transport calculations. The Initial Atmospheric Transfer (IAT) code has been compared to two data sets which are appropriate to the design space of space launch accident analyses. The primary model uncertainties are the entrainment coefficients for the extended Taylor model. The Titan 34Dmore » accident (1986) was used to calibrate these entrainment settings for a prototypic liquid propellant accident while the recent Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL, or simply APL) large propellant block tests (2012) were used to calibrate the entrainment settings for prototypic solid propellant accidents. North American Meteorology (NAM )formatted weather data profiles are used by IAT to determine the local buoyancy force balance. The IAT comparisons for the APL solid propellant tests illustrate the sensitivity of the plume elevation to the weather profiles; that is, the weather profile is a dominant factor in determining the plume elevation. The IAT code performed remarkably well and is considered validated for neutral weather conditions.« less

Recent Applications of Space Weather Research to NASA Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willis, Emily M.; Howard, James W., Jr.; Miller, J. Scott; Minow, Joseph I.; NeergardParker, L.; Suggs, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Marshall Space Flight Center s Space Environments Team is committed to applying the latest research in space weather to NASA programs. We analyze data from an extensive set of space weather satellites in order to define the space environments for some of NASA s highest profile programs. Our goal is to ensure that spacecraft are designed to be successful in all environments encountered during their missions. We also collaborate with universities, industry, and other federal agencies to provide analysis of anomalies and operational impacts to current missions. This presentation is a summary of some of our most recent applications of space weather data, including the definition of the space environments for the initial phases of the Space Launch System (SLS), acquisition of International Space Station (ISS) frame potential variations during geomagnetic storms, and Nascap-2K charging analyses.

Squeezing of particle distributions by expanding magnetic turbulence and space weather variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruffolo, D.; Seripienlert, A.; Tooprakai, P.

Among the space weather effects due to gradual solar storms, greatly enhanced high-energy ion fluxes contribute to radiation damage to satellites, spacecraft, and astronauts and dominate the hazards to air travelers, which motivates examination of the transport of high-energy solar ions to Earth's orbit. Ions of low kinetic energy (up to ∼2 MeV nucleon{sup –1}) from impulsive solar events exhibit abrupt changes due to filamentation of the magnetic connection from the Sun, indicating that anisotropic, field-aligned magnetic flux tubelike structures persist to Earth's orbit. By employing a corresponding spherical two-component model of Alfvénic (slab) and two-dimensional magnetic fluctuations to tracemore » simulated trajectories in the solar wind, we show that the distribution of high-energy (E ≥ 1 GeV) protons from gradual solar events is squeezed toward magnetic flux structures with a specific polarity because of the conical shape of the flux structures. Conical flux structures and the squeezing of energetic particle distributions should occur in any astrophysical wind or jet with expanding, magnetized, turbulent plasma. This transport phenomenon contributes to event-to-event variability in ground level enhancements of GeV-range ions from solar storms, presenting a fundamental uncertainty in space weather prediction.« less

Asteroid age distributions determined by space weathering and collisional evolution models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willman, Mark; Jedicke, Robert

2011-01-01

We provide evidence of consistency between the dynamical evolution of main belt asteroids and their color evolution due to space weathering. The dynamical age of an asteroid's surface (Bottke, W.F., Durda, D.D., Nesvorný, D., Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Vokrouhlický, D., Levison, H. [2005]. Icarus 175 (1), 111-140; Nesvorný, D., Jedicke, R., Whiteley, R.J., Ivezić, Ž. [2005]. Icarus 173, 132-152) is the time since its last catastrophic disruption event which is a function of the object's diameter. The age of an S-complex asteroid's surface may also be determined from its color using a space weathering model (e.g. Willman, M., Jedicke, R., Moskovitz, N., Nesvorný, D., Vokrouhlický, D., Mothé-Diniz, T. [2010]. Icarus 208, 758-772; Jedicke, R., Nesvorný, D., Whiteley, R.J., Ivezić, Ž., Jurić, M. [2004]. Nature 429, 275-277; Willman, M., Jedicke, R., Nesvorny, D., Moskovitz, N., Ivezić, Ž., Fevig, R. [2008]. Icarus 195, 663-673. We used a sample of 95 S-complex asteroids from SMASS and obtained their absolute magnitudes and u, g, r, i, z filter magnitudes from SDSS. The absolute magnitudes yield a size-derived age distribution. The u, g, r, i, z filter magnitudes lead to the principal component color which yields a color-derived age distribution by inverting our color-age relationship, an enhanced version of the 'dual τ' space weathering model of Willman et al. (2010). We fit the size-age distribution to the enhanced dual τ model and found characteristic weathering and gardening times of τw = 2050 ± 80 Myr and τg=4400-500+700Myr respectively. The fit also suggests an initial principal component color of -0.05 ± 0.01 for fresh asteroid surface with a maximum possible change of the probable color due to weathering of Δ PC = 1.34 ± 0.04. Our predicted color of fresh asteroid surface matches the color of fresh ordinary chondritic surface of PC1 = 0.17 ± 0.39.

Discover Space Weather and Sun's Superpowers: Using CCMC's innovative tools and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, A. M. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Chulaki, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Mullinix, R.; Weigand, C.; Boblitt, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Pembroke, A. D.; Mays, M. L.; Zheng, Y.; Shim, J. S.

2015-12-01

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has developed a comprehensive set of tools and applications that are directly applicable to space weather and space science education. These tools, some of which were developed by our student interns, are capable of serving a wide range of student audiences, from middle school to postgraduate research. They include a web-based point of access to sophisticated space physics models and visualizations, and a powerful space weather information dissemination system, available on the web and as a mobile app. In this demonstration, we will use CCMC's innovative tools to engage the audience in real-time space weather analysis and forecasting and will share some of our interns' hands-on experiences while being trained as junior space weather forecasters. The main portals to CCMC's educational material are ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov and iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov

Ionosphere-related products for communication and navigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Carlson, H. C.; Gardner, L. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.

2011-12-01

Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere is the key region that affects communication and navigation systems. The Utah State University (USU) Space Weather Center (SWC) is developing and producing commercial space weather applications. A key system-level component for providing timely information about the effects of space weather is the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system. GAIM, operated by SWC, improves real-time communication and navigation systems by continuously ingesting up to 10,000 slant TEC measurements every 15-minutes from approximately 500 stations. Ionosonde data from several dozen global stations is ingested every 15 minutes to improve the vertical profiles within GAIM. The global, CONUS, Europe, Asia, South America, and other regional sectors are run with a 15-minute cadence. These operational runs enable SWC to calculate and report the global radio high frequency (HF) signal strengths and near vertical incidence skywave (NVIS) maps used by amateur radio operators and emergency responders, especially during the Japan Great Earthquake and tsunami recovery period. SWC has established its first fully commercial enterprise called Q-up as a result of this activity. GPS uncertainty maps are produced by SWC to improve single-frequency GPS applications. SWC also provides the space weather smartphone app called SpaceWx for iPhone, iPad, iPod, and Android for professional users and public space weather education. SpaceWx displays the real-time solar, heliosphere, magnetosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere drivers to changes in the total electron content, for example, as well as global NVIS maps. We describe upcoming improvements for moving space weather information through automated systems into final derivative products.

Global Navigation Satellite Systems and Space Weather: Building upon the International Space Weather Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gadimova, S. H.; Haubold, H. J.

2014-01-01

Globally there is growing interest in better unders tanding solar-terrestrial interactions, particularly patterns and trends in space weather. This is not only for scientific reasons, but also because the reliable operation of ground-based and space-based assets and infrastructures is increasingly dependent on their robustness against the detrimental effects of space weather. Consequently, in 2009, the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) proposed the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI), as a follow-up activity to the International Heliophysical Year 2007 (IHY2007), to be implemented under a three-year workplan from 2010 to 2012 (UNGA Document, A/64/20). All achievements of international cooperation and coordination for ISWI, including instrumentation, data analysis, modelling, education, training and public outreach, are made a vailable through the ISWI Newsletter and the ISWI Website (http://www.iswi-secretariat.org/). Since the last solar maximum in 2000, societal dependence on global navigation satellite system (GNSS) has increased substantially. This situation has brought increasing attention to the subject of space weather and its effects on GNSS systems and users. Results concerning the impact of space weather on GNSS are made available at the Information Portal (www.unoosa.org) of the International Committee on Global Navigati on Satellite Systems (ICG). This paper briefly reviews the curre nt status of ISWI with regard to GNSS.

Operational Space Weather in USAF Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smithtro, C.; Quigley, S.

2006-12-01

Most education programs offering space weather courses are understandably and traditionally heavily weighted with theoretical space physics that is the basis for most of what is researched and modeled. While understanding the theory is a good and necessary grounding for anyone working the field of space weather, few military or commercial jobs employ such theory in real-time operations. The operations sites/centers are much more geared toward use of applied theory-resultant models, tools and products. To ensure its operations centers personnel, commanders, real-time system operators and other customers affected by the space environment are educated on available and soon-to-be operational space weather models and products, the USAF has developed applicable course/lecture material taught at various institutions to include the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) and the Joint Weather Training Complex (335th/TRS/OUA). Less frequent training of operational space weather is available via other venues that will be discussed, and associated course material is also being developed for potential use at the National Security Space Institute (NSSI). This presentation provides an overview of the programs, locations, courses and material developed and/or taught by or for USAF personnel dealing with operational space weather. It also provides general information on student research project results that may be used in operational support, along with observations regarding logistical and professional benefits of teaching such non-theoretical/non-traditional material.

Solar EUV irradiance for space weather applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viereck, R. A.

2015-12-01

Solar EUV irradiance is an important driver of space weather models. Large changes in EUV and x-ray irradiances create large variability in the ionosphere and thermosphere. Proxies such as the F10.7 cm radio flux, have provided reasonable estimates of the EUV flux but as the space weather models become more accurate and the demands of the customers become more stringent, proxies are no longer adequate. Furthermore, proxies are often provided only on a daily basis and shorter time scales are becoming important. Also, there is a growing need for multi-day forecasts of solar EUV irradiance to drive space weather forecast models. In this presentation we will describe the needs and requirements for solar EUV irradiance information from the space weather modeler's perspective. We will then translate these requirements into solar observational requirements such as spectral resolution and irradiance accuracy. We will also describe the activities at NOAA to provide long-term solar EUV irradiance observations and derived products that are needed for real-time space weather modeling.

Training Early Career Space Weather Researchers and other Space Weather Professionals at the CISM Space Weather Summer School

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gross, N. A.; Hughes, W.

2011-12-01

This talk will outline the organization of a summer school designed to introduce young professions to a sub-discipline of geophysics. Through out the 10 year life time of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) the CISM Team has offered a two week summer school that introduces new graduate students and other interested professional to the fundamentals of space weather. The curriculum covers basic concepts in space physics, the hazards of space weather, and the utility of computer models of the space environment. Graduate students attend from both inside and outside CISM, from all the sub-disciplines involved in space weather (solar, heliosphere, geomagnetic, and aeronomy), and from across the nation and around the world. In addition, between 1/4 and 1/3 of the participants each year are professionals involved in space weather in some way, such as: forecasters from NOAA and the Air Force, Air Force satellite program directors, NASA specialists involved in astronaut radiation safety, and representatives from industries affected by space weather. The summer school has adopted modern pedagogy that has been used successfully at the undergraduate level. A typical daily schedule involves three morning lectures followed by an afternoon lab session. During the morning lectures, student interaction is encouraged using "Timeout to Think" questions and peer instruction, along with question cards for students to ask follow up questions. During the afternoon labs students, working in groups of four, answer thought provoking questions using results from simulations and observation data from a variety of source. Through the interactions with each other and the instructors, as well as social interactions during the two weeks, students network and form bonds that will last them through out their careers. We believe that this summer school can be used as a model for summer schools in a wide variety of disciplines.

Between the Rock and a Hard Place: The CCMC as a Transit Station Between Modelers and Forecasters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hesse, Michael

2009-01-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second CCMC activity is to support Space Weather forecasting at national Space Weather Forecasting Centers. This second activity involved model evaluations, model transitions to operations, and the development of draft Space Weather forecasting tools. This presentation will focus on the latter element. Specifically, we will discuss the process of transition research models, or information generated by research models, to Space Weather Forecasting organizations. We will analyze successes as well as obstacles to further progress, and we will suggest avenues for increased transitioning success.

The evaluation and development of the Met Office Unified Model using surface and space borne radar.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petch, J.

2012-12-01

The Met Office Unified Model is used for the prediction of weather and climate on time scales of hours through to centuries. Therefore, the parametrizations in that model need to work on weather and climate timescale, and with grid-lengths from hundres of meters through to several hundred kilometres. Focusing on the development of the cloud and radiation schemes I will discuss how we are using ground-based remote-sensing observations from Chilbolton (England) and a combination of Cloudsat and Calipso data to evaluate and improve the performance of the model. I will show how the prediction of the clouds has improved since the AR5 version of the model and how we have developed an improved cloud generator to rebresent the sub-grid variability of clouds for radiative transfer.

Modeling extreme (Carrington-type) space weather events using three-dimensional MHD code simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngwira, C. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Glocer, A.

2013-12-01

There is growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure and systems. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made towards the modeling of space weather events. Three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, and have played a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for existing global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events that have a ground footprint comparable (or larger) to the Carrington superstorm. Results are presented for an initial simulation run with ``very extreme'' constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated ground induced geoelectric field to such extreme driving conditions. We also discuss the results and what they might mean for the accuracy of the simulations. The model is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in earth conductors such as power transmission grids.

A Perspective of the Science and Mission Challenges in Aeronomy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spann, James F.

2010-01-01

There are significant fundamental problems for which aeronomy can provide solutions and a critical role in applied science and space weather that only aeronomy can address. Examples of unresolved problems include the interaction of neutral and charged, the role of mass and energy transfer across Earth's interface with space, and the predictability of ionospheric density and composition variability. These and other problems impact the productivity of space assets and thus have a tangible applied dimension. This talk will explore open science problems and barriers to potential mission solutions in an era of constrained resources.

ESA's spaceborne lidar mission ADM-Aeolus; project status and preparations for launch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straume, Anne Grete; Elfving, Anders; Wernham, Denny; de Bruin, Frank; Kanitz, Thomas; Schuettemeyer, Dirk; Bismarck, Jonas von; Buscaglione, Fabio; Lecrenier, O.; McGoldrick, Phil

2018-04-01

ESA's Doppler Wind lidar mission, the Atmospheric Dynamics Mission (ADM-Aeolus, hereafter abbreviated to Aeolus), was chosen as an Earth Explorer Core mission within the Living Planet Programme in 1999. It shall demonstrate the potential of space-based Doppler Wind lidars for operational measurements of wind profiles and their use in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate research. Spin-off products are profiles of cloud and aerosol optical properties. Aeolus carries the novel Doppler Wind lidar instrument ALADIN. The mission prime is Airbus Defence & Space UK (ADS-UK), and the instrument prime is Airbus Defence & Space France (ADS-F).

Sun-to-Earth simulations of geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejections with EUHFORIA: a heliospheric-magnetospheric model chain approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scolini, C.; Verbeke, C.; Gopalswamy, N.; Wijsen, N.; Poedts, S.; Mierla, M.; Rodriguez, L.; Pomoell, J.; Cramer, W. D.; Raeder, J.

2017-12-01

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and their interplanetary counterparts are considered to be the major space weather drivers. An accurate modelling of their onset and propagation up to 1 AU represents a key issue for more reliable space weather forecasts, and predictions about their actual geo-effectiveness can only be performed by coupling global heliospheric models to 3D models describing the terrestrial environment, e.g. magnetospheric and ionospheric codes in the first place. In this work we perform a Sun-to-Earth comprehensive analysis of the July 12, 2012 CME with the aim of testing the space weather predictive capabilities of the newly developed EUHFORIA heliospheric model integrated with the Gibson-Low (GL) flux rope model. In order to achieve this goal, we make use of a model chain approach by using EUHFORIA outputs at Earth as input parameters for the OpenGGCM magnetospheric model. We first reconstruct the CME kinematic parameters by means of single- and multi- spacecraft reconstruction methods based on coronagraphic and heliospheric CME observations. The magnetic field-related parameters of the flux rope are estimated based on imaging observations of the photospheric and low coronal source regions of the eruption. We then simulate the event with EUHFORIA, testing the effect of the different CME kinematic input parameters on simulation results at L1. We compare simulation outputs with in-situ measurements of the Interplanetary CME and we use them as input for the OpenGGCM model, so to investigate the magnetospheric response to solar perturbations. From simulation outputs we extract some global geomagnetic activity indexes and compare them with actual data records and with results obtained by the use of empirical relations. Finally, we discuss the forecasting capabilities of such kind of approach and its future improvements.

Satellite Constellations for Space Weather and Ionospheric Studies: Overview of the COSMIC and COSMIC-2 Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schreiner, W. S.; Pedatella, N. M.; Weiss, J.

2016-12-01

Measurements from constellations of low Earth orbiting (LEO) satellites are proving highly useful for ionospheric science and space weather studies. The Constellation Observing System for Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC), a joint US/Taiwan mission launched in April 2006, is a six micro-satellite constellation carrying Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) receivers. COSMIC has collected a large amount of useful data from these scientific payloads and is still currently collecting up to 1,000 RO measurement events per day on average. The GPS RO dual-frequency L-band phase and amplitude measurements can be used to observe absolute Total Electron Content (TEC) and scintillation on lines of sight between the LEO and GPS satellites, and electron density profiles via the RO method. The large number and complete global and local time coverage of COSMIC data are allowing scientists to observe ionospheric and plasmaspheric phenomena that are difficult to see with other instruments. The success of COSMIC has prompted U.S. agencies and Taiwan to execute a COSMIC follow-on mission (called COSMIC-2) that will put twelve satellites with GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) RO payloads into orbit on two launches in the 2017-20 time frame. The first launch in 2017 will place six satellites in a 520-km altitude 24 deg inclination orbit, which is ideal for low latitude ionospheric research and space weather forecasting. The planned second launch (not currently funded) places six additional satellites in a 750 km 72 deg inclination orbit to provide global coverage and increased sampling density. COSMIC-2 will make use of an advanced radio occultation receiver with an innovative beam-forming antenna design, and is expected to produce at least 10,000 high-quality atmospheric and ionospheric profiles per day from GPS and GLONASS signals to support operational weather prediction, climate monitoring, and space weather forecasting. Each COSMIC-2 spacecraft in the first launch will also carry additional space weather payloads: a tri-band RF Beacon transmitter, and an Ion Velocity Meter instrument. This presentation will provide a short summary of the COSMIC mission and then present an overview of the COSMIC-2 mission, including expected data product performance and science goals

Overview of NASA MSFC and UAH Space Weather Modeling and Data Efforts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, Linda Neergaard

2016-01-01

Marshall Space Flight Center, along with its industry and academia neighbors, has a long history of space environment model development and testing. Space weather efforts include research, testing, model development, environment definition, anomaly investigation, and operational support. This presentation will highlight a few of the current space weather activities being performed at Marshall and through collaborative efforts with University of Alabama in Huntsville scientists.

Safety on Earth From MARSS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

ENSCO, Inc., developed the Meteorological and Atmospheric Real-time Safety Support (MARSS) system for real-time assessment of meteorological data displays and toxic material spills. MARSS also provides mock scenarios to guide preparations for emergencies involving meteorological hazards and toxic substances. Developed under a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contract with Kennedy Space Center, MARSS was designed to measure how safe NASA and Air Force range safety personnel are while performing weather sensitive operations around launch pads. The system augments a ground operations safety plan that limits certain work operations to very specific weather conditions. It also provides toxic hazard prediction models to assist safety managers in planning for and reacting to releases of hazardous materials. MARSS can be used in agricultural, industrial, and scientific applications that require weather forecasts and predictions of toxic smoke movement. MARSS is also designed to protect urban areas, seaports, rail facilities, and airports from airborne releases of hazardous chemical substances. The system can integrate with local facility protection units and provide instant threat detection and assessment data that is reportable for local and national distribution.

Improvement of Advanced Storm-scale Analysis and Prediction System (ASAPS) on Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jeong-Gyun; Jee, Joon-Bum

2017-04-01

Dangerous weather such as severe rain, heavy snow, drought and heat wave caused by climate change make more damage in the urban area that dense populated and industry areas. Urban areas, unlike the rural area, have big population and transportation, dense the buildings and fuel consumption. Anthropogenic factors such as road energy balance, the flow of air in the urban is unique meteorological phenomena. However several researches are in process about prediction of urban meteorology. ASAPS (Advanced Storm-scale Analysis and Prediction System) predicts a severe weather with very short range (prediction with 6 hour) and high resolution (every hour with time and 1 km with space) on Seoul metropolitan area based on KLAPS (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). This system configured three parts that make a background field (SUF5), analysis field (SU01) with observation and forecast field with high resolution (SUF1). In this study, we improve a high-resolution ASAPS model and perform a sensitivity test for the rainfall case. The improvement of ASAPS include model domain configuration, high resolution topographic data and data assimilation with WISE observation data.

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.

2007-01-01

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation at the Shuttle Landing Facility is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF5), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. This study specifically addresses the skill of different model configurations in forecasting warm season convective initiation. Numerous factors influence the development of convection over the Florida peninsula. These factors include sea breezes, river and lake breezes, the prevailing low-level flow, and convergent flow due to convex coastlines that enhance the sea breeze. The interaction of these processes produces the warm season convective patterns seen over the Florida peninsula. However, warm season convection remains one of the most poorly forecast meteorological parameters. To determine which configuration options are best to address this specific forecast concern, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) was employed. In addition to the two dynamical cores, there are also two options for a "hot-start" initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; McGinley 1995) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS; Brewster 1996). Both LAPS and ADAS are 3- dimensional weather analysis systems that integrate multiple meteorological data sources into one consistent analysis over the user's domain of interest. This allows mesoscale models to benefit from the addition of highresolution data sources. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and MLB with considerable flexibility as well as challenges. It is the goal of this study to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation.

Flight Deck Weather Avoidance Decision Support: Implementation and Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Shu-Chieh; Luna, Rocio; Johnson, Walter W.

2013-01-01

Weather related disruptions account for seventy percent of the delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). A key component in the weather plan of the Next Generation of Air Transportation System (NextGen) is to assimilate observed weather information and probabilistic forecasts into the decision process of flight crews and air traffic controllers. In this research we explore supporting flight crew weather decision making through the development of a flight deck predicted weather display system that utilizes weather predictions generated by ground-based radar. This system integrates and presents this weather information, together with in-flight trajectory modification tools, within a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) prototype. that the CDTI features 2D and perspective 3D visualization models of weather. The weather forecast products that we implemented were the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) and the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), both developed by MIT Lincoln Lab. We evaluated the use of CIWS and CWAM for flight deck weather avoidance in two part-task experiments. Experiment 1 compared pilots' en route weather avoidance performance in four weather information conditions that differed in the type and amount of predicted forecast (CIWS current weather only, CIWS current and historical weather, CIWS current and forecast weather, CIWS current and forecast weather and CWAM predictions). Experiment 2 compared the use of perspective 3D and 21/2D presentations of weather for flight deck weather avoidance. Results showed that pilots could take advantage of longer range predicted weather forecasts in performing en route weather avoidance but more research will be needed to determine what combinations of information are optimal and how best to present them.

Atmospheric density models comparison and impact on orbit solutions of GRACE-1, Sentinel-1A, TerraSAR-X

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colace, Marco; Hackel, Stefan; Kirschner, Michael; Kahle, Ralph; Circi, Christian

2017-04-01

Satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) are notably affected by the presence of the atmosphere, a predominant source of perturbations of the Keplerian motion at the altitudes of interest. For spacecraft of this class the main source of error in propagated trajectories is due to the mismodeling of the neutral density in the thermosphere and the associated drag force, which steadily decelerates orbital motion with both secular and periodic effects. Thermospheric density varies significantly with space and time because of complex interactions between solar activity and the Earth's atmosphere and magnetic field. Properly reproducing this variability by means of empirical dynamic models has always represented a difficult task but is of vital importance for orbit determination and propagation. The present study shows the influence of different atmospheric density models, predicted space weather proxies, and their related uncertainties on the orbit solutions of representative satellite missions. The study has been carried out by using a routine-like orbit propagation scenario applied to GRACE-1, Sentinel-1A, and TerraSAR-X, three LEO orbiting spacecraft with operational altitudes well spaced within the 400-700 km range. Archived space weather data predictions and some of the most recent and promising empirical atmospheric models (Naval Research Laboratory's NRLMSISE-00 and Jacchia-Bowman 2008) were used side-by-side with the well-known Jacchia 1971 model in order to assess potential gains in prediction accuracy. To evaluate the influence of solar variability on the atmospheric density models and associated orbit quality, two 2-month test time frames, in high and low solar activity periods, have been selected. The scope of the presentation is a detailed comparison of atmospheric density models and their influence on the estimated orbits of GRACE-1, Sentinel-1A and TerraSAR-X.

Space Weather Model Testing And Validation At The Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Falasca, A.; Keller, K.; Reitan, P.

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partner- ship aimed at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to undertake the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to pro- vide models for transition to the rapid prototyping centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires close collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of NASA's Living With aStar initiative, of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Tran- sition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as distributed computing facilities provided by the Air Force. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide updates on CCMC status, on current plans, research and devel- opment accomplishments and goals, and on the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate.

Solar Cycle Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, William Dean

2012-01-01

Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

An Extended Objective Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model for Weather Support to the United States Space Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nutter, Paul; Manobianco, John

1998-01-01

This report describes the Applied Meteorology Unit's objective verification of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 29-km eta model during separate warm and cool season periods from May 1996 through January 1998. The verification of surface and upper-air point forecasts was performed at three selected stations important for 45th Weather Squadron, Spaceflight Meteorology Group, and National Weather Service, Melbourne operational weather concerns. The statistical evaluation identified model biases that may result from inadequate parameterization of physical processes. Since model biases are relatively small compared to the random error component, most of the total model error results from day-to-day variability in the forecasts and/or observations. To some extent, these nonsystematic errors reflect the variability in point observations that sample spatial and temporal scales of atmospheric phenomena that cannot be resolved by the model. On average, Meso-Eta point forecasts provide useful guidance for predicting the evolution of the larger scale environment. A more substantial challenge facing model users in real time is the discrimination of nonsystematic errors that tend to inflate the total forecast error. It is important that model users maintain awareness of ongoing model changes. Such changes are likely to modify the basic error characteristics, particularly near the surface.

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC): Using innovative tools and services to support worldwide space weather scientific communities and networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, A. M.; Bakshi, S.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Evans, R. M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Lee, H.; MacNeice, P. J.; Maddox, M. M.; Mays, M. L.; Mullinix, R. E.; Ngwira, C. M.; Patel, K.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Shim, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; Zheng, Y.

2012-12-01

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) was established to enhance basic solar terrestrial research and to aid in the development of models for specifying and forecasting conditions in the space environment. In achieving this goal, CCMC has developed and provides a set of innovative tools varying from: Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) web -based dissemination system for space weather information, Runs-On-Request System providing access to unique collection of state-of-the-art solar and space physics models (unmatched anywhere in the world), Advanced Online Visualization and Analysis tools for more accurate interpretation of model results, Standard Data formats for Simulation Data downloads, and recently Mobile apps (iPhone/Android) to view space weather data anywhere to the scientific community. The number of runs requested and the number of resulting scientific publications and presentations from the research community has not only been an indication of the broad scientific usage of the CCMC and effective participation by space scientists and researchers, but also guarantees active collaboration and coordination amongst the space weather research community. Arising from the course of CCMC activities, CCMC also supports community-wide model validation challenges and research focus group projects for a broad range of programs such as the multi-agency National Space Weather Program, NSF's CEDAR (Coupling, Energetics and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions), GEM (Geospace Environment Modeling) and Shine (Solar Heliospheric and INterplanetary Environment) programs. In addition to performing research and model development, CCMC also supports space science education by hosting summer students through local universities; through the provision of simulations in support of classroom programs such as Heliophysics Summer School (with student research contest) and CCMC Workshops; training next generation of junior scientists in space weather forecasting; and educating the general public about the importance and impacts of space weather effects. Although CCMC is organizationally comprised of United States federal agencies, CCMC services are open to members of the international science community and encourages interagency and international collaboration. In this poster, we provide an overview of using Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) tools and services to support worldwide space weather scientific communities and networks.;

NOAA Environmental Satellite Measurements of Extreme Space Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denig, W. F.; Wilkinson, D. C.; Redmon, R. J.

2015-12-01

For over 40 years the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has continuously monitored the near-earth space environment in support of space weather operations. Data from this period have covered a wide range of geophysical conditions including periods of extreme space weather such as the great geomagnetic March 1989, the 2003 Halloween storm and the more recent St Patrick's Day storm of 2015. While not specifically addressed here, these storms have stressed our technology infrastructure in unexpected and surprising ways. Space weather data from NOAA geostationary (GOES) and polar (POES) satellites along with supporting data from the Air Force are presented to compare and contrast the space environmental conditions measured during extreme events.

Projecting Future Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest with High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Luong, T. M.; Lahmers, T.; Jares, M.; Carrillo, C. M.

2014-12-01

Most severe weather during the North American monsoon in the Southwest U.S. occurs in association with organized convection, including microbursts, dust storms, flash flooding and lightning. Our objective is to project how monsoon severe weather is changing due to anthropogenic global warming. We first consider a dynamically downscaled reanalysis (35 km grid spacing), generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model during the period 1948-2010. Individual severe weather events, identified by favorable thermodynamic conditions of instability and precipitable water, are then simulated for short-term, numerical weather prediction-type simulations of 24h at a convective-permitting scale (2 km grid spacing). Changes in the character of severe weather events within this period likely reflect long-term climate change driven by anthropogenic forcing. Next, we apply the identical model simulation and analysis procedures to several dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 models for the period 1950-2100, to assess how monsoon severe weather may change in the future and if these changes correspond with what is already occurring per the downscaled renalaysis and available observational data. The CMIP5 models we are downscaling (HadGEM and MPI-ECHAM6) will be included as part of North American CORDEX. The regional model experimental design for severe weather event projection reasonably accounts for the known operational forecast prerequisites for severe monsoon weather. The convective-permitting simulations show that monsoon convection appears to be reasonably well captured with the use of the dynamically downscaled reanalysis, in comparison to Stage IV precipitation data. The regional model tends to initiate convection too early, though correctly simulates the diurnal maximum in convection in the afternoon and subsequent westward propagation of thunderstorms. Projected changes in extreme event precipitation will be described in relation to the long-term changes in thermodynamic and dynamic forcing mechanisms for severe weather. Results from this project will be used for climate change impacts assessment for U.S. military installations in the region.

Monitoring Changes of Tropical Extreme Rainfall Events Using Differential Absorption Barometric Radar (DiBAR)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Bing; Harrah, Steven; Lawrence, R. Wes; Hu, Yongxiang; Min, Qilong

2015-01-01

This work studies the potential of monitoring changes in tropical extreme rainfall events such as tropical storms from space using a Differential-absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR) operating at 50-55 gigahertz O2 absorption band to remotely measure sea surface air pressure. Air pressure is among the most important variables that affect atmospheric dynamics, and currently can only be measured by limited in-situ observations over oceans. Analyses show that with the proposed radar the errors in instantaneous (averaged) pressure estimates can be as low as approximately 5 millibars (approximately 1 millibar) under all weather conditions. With these sea level pressure measurements, the forecasts, analyses and understanding of these extreme events in both short and long time scales can be improved. Severe weathers, especially hurricanes, are listed as one of core areas that need improved observations and predictions in WCRP (World Climate Research Program) and NASA Decadal Survey (DS) and have major impacts on public safety and national security through disaster mitigation. Since the development of the DiBAR concept about a decade ago, our team has made substantial progress in advancing the concept. Our feasibility assessment clearly shows the potential of sea surface barometry using existing radar technologies. We have developed a DiBAR system design, fabricated a Prototype-DiBAR (P-DiBAR) for proof-of-concept, conducted lab, ground and airborne P-DiBAR tests. The flight test results are consistent with our instrumentation goals. Observational system simulation experiments for space DiBAR performance show substantial improvements in tropical storm predictions, not only for the hurricane track and position but also for the hurricane intensity. DiBAR measurements will lead us to an unprecedented level of the prediction and knowledge on tropical extreme rainfall weather and climate conditions.

The Second Annual Space Weather Community Operations Workshop: Advancing Operations Into the Next Decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehan, Jennifer; Fulgham, Jared; Tobiska, W. Kent

2012-07-01

How can we continue to advance the space weather operational community from lessons already learned when it comes to data reliability, maintainability, accessibility, dependability, safety, and quality? How can we make space weather more easily accessible to each other and outside users? Representatives from operational, commercial, academic, and government organizations weighed in on these important questions at the second annual Space Weather Community Operations Workshop, held 22-23 March 2012 in Park City, Utah, with the unofficial workshop motto being Don’t Reinvent the Wheel.

Tools for Understanding Space Weather Impacts to Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, J. C.; Shprits, Y.; Likar, J. J.; Kellerman, A. C.; Quinn, R. A.; Whelan, P.; Reker, N.; Huston, S. L.

2017-12-01

Space weather causes dramatic changes in the near-Earth radiation environment. Intense particle fluxes can damage electronic components on satellites, causing temporary malfunctions, degraded performance, or a complete system/mission loss. Understanding whether space weather is the cause of such problems expedites investigations and guides successful design improvements resulting in a more robust satellite architecture. Here we discuss our progress in developing tools for satellite designers, manufacturers, and decision makers - tools that summarize space weather impacts to specific satellite assets and enable confident identification of the cause and right solution.

Insights into Regolith Dynamics from the Irradiation Record Preserved in Hayabusa Samples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, Lindsay P.; Berger, E. L.

2014-01-01

The rates of space weathering processes are poorly constrained for asteroid surfaces, with recent estimates ranging over 5 orders of magnitude. The return of the first surface samples from a space-weathered asteroid by the Hayabusa mission and their laboratory analysis provides "ground truth" to anchor the timescales for space weathering. We determine the rates of space weathering on Itokawa by measuring solar flare track densities and the widths of solar wind damaged rims on grains. These measurements are made possible through novel focused ion beam (FIB) sample preparation methods.

When Astronomy Gets Closer to Home: Why space weather outreach is important and how to give it impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, B.

2014-12-01

When the public think about natural hazards, space weather is not the first thing to come to mind. Yet, though uncommon, extreme space weather events can have an economic impact similar to that of large floods or earthquakes. Although there have been efforts across various sectors of society to communicate this topic, many people are still quite confused about it, having only a limited understanding of the relevance of space weather in their daily lives. As such, it is crucial to properly communicate this topic to a variety of audiences. This article explores why we should communicate space weather research, how it can be framed for different audiences and how researchers, science communicators, policy makers and the public can raise awareness of the topic.

The Ensemble Space Weather Modeling System (eSWMS): Status, Capabilities and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fry, C. D.; Eccles, J. V.; Reich, J. P.

2010-12-01

Marking a milestone in space weather forecasting, the Space Weather Modeling System (SWMS) successfully completed validation testing in advance of operational testing at Air Force Weather Agency’s primary space weather production center. This is the first coupling of stand-alone, physics-based space weather models that are currently in operations at AFWA supporting the warfighter. Significant development effort went into ensuring the component models were portable and scalable while maintaining consistent results across diverse high performance computing platforms. Coupling was accomplished under the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The coupled space weather models are the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 (HAFv2) solar wind model and GAIM1, the ionospheric forecast component of the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) model. The SWMS was developed by team members from AFWA, Explorations Physics International, Inc. (EXPI) and Space Environment Corporation (SEC). The successful development of the SWMS provides new capabilities beyond enabling extended lead-time, data-driven ionospheric forecasts. These include ingesting diverse data sets at higher resolution, incorporating denser computational grids at finer time steps, and performing probability-based ensemble forecasts. Work of the SWMS development team now focuses on implementing the ensemble-based probability forecast capability by feeding multiple scenarios of 5 days of solar wind forecasts to the GAIM1 model based on the variation of the input fields to the HAFv2 model. The ensemble SWMS (eSWMS) will provide the most-likely space weather scenario with uncertainty estimates for important forecast fields. The eSWMS will allow DoD mission planners to consider the effects of space weather on their systems with more advance warning than is currently possible. The payoff is enhanced, tailored support to the warfighter with improved capabilities, such as point-to-point HF propagation forecasts, single-frequency GPS error corrections, and high cadence, high-resolution Space Situational Awareness (SSA) products. We present the current status of eSWMS, its capabilities, limitations and path of transition to operational use.

Space Weathering on Icy Satellites in the Outer Solar System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, R. N.; Perlman, Z.; Pearson, N.; Cruikshank, D. P.

2014-01-01

Space weathering produces well-known optical effects in silicate minerals in the inner Solar System, for example, on the Moon. Space weathering from solar wind and UV (ultraviolet radiation) is expected to be significantly weaker in the outer Solar System simply because intensities are low. However, cosmic rays and micrometeoroid bombardment would be similar to first order. That, combined with the much higher volatility of icy surfaces means there is the potential for space weathering on icy outer Solar System surfaces to show optical effects. The Cassini spacecraft orbiting Saturn is providing evidence for space weathering on icy bodies. The Cassini Visible and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) instrument has spatially mapped satellite surfaces and the rings from 0.35-5 microns and the Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph (UVIS) instrument from 0.1 to 0.2 microns. These data have sampled a complex mixing space between H2O ice and non-ice components and they show some common spectral properties. Similarly, spectra of the icy Galilean satellites and satellites in the Uranian system have some commonality in spectral properties with those in the Saturn system. The UV absorber is spectrally similar on many surfaces. VIMS has identified CO2, H2 and trace organics in varying abundances on Saturn's satellites. We postulate that through the spatial relationships of some of these compounds that they are created and destroyed through space weathering effects. For example, the trapped H2 and CO2 observed by VIMS in regions with high concentrations of dark material may in part be space weathering products from the destruction of H2O and organic molecules. The dark material, particularly on Iapetus which has the highest concentration in the Saturn system, is well matched by space-weathered silicates in the .4 to 2.6 micron range, and the spectral shapes closely match those of the most mature lunar soils, another indicator of space weathered material.

An Evaluation of Controller and Pilot Performance, Workload and Acceptability under a NextGen Concept for Dynamic Weather Adapted Arrival Routing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Walter W.; Lachter, Joel; Brandt, Summer; Koteskey, Robert; Dao, Arik-Quang; Kraut, Josh; Ligda, Sarah; Battiste, Vernol

2012-01-01

In todays terminal operations, controller workload increases and throughput decreases when fixed standard terminal arrival routes (STARs) are impacted by storms. To circumvent this operational constraint, Prete, Krozel, Mitchell, Kim and Zou (2008) proposed to use automation to dynamically adapt arrival and departure routing based on weather predictions. The present study examined this proposal in the context of a NextGen trajectory-based operation concept, focusing on the acceptability and its effect on the controllers ability to manage traffic flows. Six controllers and twelve transport pilots participated in a human-in-the-loop simulation of arrival operations into Louisville International Airport with interval management requirements. Three types of routing structures were used: Static STARs (similar to current routing, which require the trajectories of individual aircraft to be modified to avoid the weather), Dynamic routing (automated adaptive routing around weather), and Dynamic Adjusted routing (automated adaptive routing around weather with aircraft entry time adjusted to account for differences in route length). Spacing Responsibility, whether responsibility for interval management resided with the controllers (as today), or resided with the pilot (who used a flight deck based automated spacing algorithm), was also manipulated. Dynamic routing as a whole was rated superior to static routing, especially by pilots, both in terms of workload reduction and flight path safety. A downside of using dynamic routing was that the paths flown in the dynamic conditions tended to be somewhat longer than the paths flown in the static condition.

Challenges for Transitioning Science Knowledge to an Operational Environment for Space Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spann, James

2012-01-01

Effectively transitioning science knowledge to an operational environment relevant to space weather is critical to meet the civilian and defense needs, especially considering how technologies are advancing and present evolving susceptibilities to space weather impacts. The effort to transition scientific knowledge to a useful application is not a research task nor is an operational activity, but an effort that bridges the two. Successful transitioning must be an intentional effort that has a clear goal for all parties and measureable outcome and deliverable. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective for terrestrial weather and disaster relief efforts, and how those methodologies can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

Global, real-time ionosphere specification for end-user communication and navigation products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W.; Carlson, H. C.; Schunk, R. W.; Thompson, D. C.; Sojka, J. J.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Gardner, L. C.

2010-12-01

Space weather’s effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun’s photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere is the key region that affects communication and navigation systems. The Utah State University (USU) Space Weather Center (SWC) is a developer and producer of commercial space weather applications. A key system-level component for providing timely information about the effects of space weather is the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system. GAIM, operated by SWC, improves real-time communication and navigation systems by continuously ingesting up to 10,000 slant TEC measurements every 15-minutes from approximately 500 stations. Using a Kalman filter, the background output from the physics-based Ionosphere Forecast Model (IFM) is adjusted to more accurately represent the actual ionosphere. An improved ionosphere leads to more useful derivative products. For example, SWC runs operational code, using GAIM, to calculate and report the global radio high frequency (HF) signal strengths for 24 world cities. This product is updated every 15 minutes at http://spaceweather.usu.edu and used by amateur radio operators. SWC also developed and provides through Apple iTunes the widely used real-time space weather iPhone app called SpaceWx for public space weather education. SpaceWx displays the real-time solar, heliosphere, magnetosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere drivers to changes in the total electron content, for example. This smart phone app is tip of the “iceberg” of automated systems that provide space weather data; it permits instant understanding of the environment surrounding Earth as it dynamically changes. SpaceWx depends upon a distributed network that connects satellite and ground-based data streams with algorithms to quickly process the measurements into geophysical data, incorporate those data into operational space physics models, and finally generate visualization products such as the images, plots, and alerts that can be viewed on SpaceWx. In a real sense, the space weather community is now able to transition research models into operations through “proofing” products such as real-time disseminated of information through smart phones. We describe upcoming improvements for moving space weather information through automated systems into final derivative products.

Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hapgood, Mike

2017-01-01

Space weather-changes in the Earth's environment that can often be traced to physical processes in the Sun-can have a profound impact on critical Earth-based infrastructures such as power grids and civil aviation. Violent eruptions on the solar surface can eject huge clouds of magnetized plasma and particle radiation, which then propagate across interplanetary space and envelop the Earth. These space weather events can drive major changes in a variety of terrestrial environments, which can disrupt, or even damage, many of the technological systems that underpin modern societies. The aim of this book is to offer an insight into our current scientific understanding of space weather, and how we can use that knowledge to mitigate the risks it poses for Earth-based technologies. It also identifies some key challenges for future space-weather research, and considers how emerging technological developments may introduce new risks that will drive continuing investigation.

The International Space Weather Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nat, Gopalswamy; Joseph, Davila; Barbara, Thompson

2010-01-01

The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is a program of international cooperation aimed at understanding the external drivers of space weather. The ISWI program has its roots in the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program that ran during 2007 - 2009 and will continue with those aspects that directly affect life on Earth. The primary objective of the ISWI program is to advance the space weather science by a combination of instrument deployment, analysis and interpretation of space weather data from the deployed instruments in conjunction with space data, and communicate the results to the public and students. Like the IHY, the ISWI will be a grass roots organization with key participation from national coordinators in cooperation with an international steering committee. This presentation outlines the ISWI program including its organizational aspects and proposed activities. The ISWI observatory deployment and outreach activities are highly complementary to the CAWSES II activities of SCOSTEP.

Exploring Space Physics Concepts Using Simulation Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gross, N. A.

2008-05-01

The Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM), a Science and Technology Center (STC) funded by the National Science Foundation, has the goal of developing a suite of integrated physics based computer models of the space environment that can follow the evolution of a space weather event from the Sun to the Earth. In addition to the research goals, CISM is also committed to training the next generation of space weather professionals who are imbued with a system view of space weather. This view should include an understanding of both helio-spheric and geo-space phenomena. To this end, CISM offers a yearly Space Weather Summer School targeted to first year graduate students, although advanced undergraduates and space weather professionals have also attended. This summer school uses a number of innovative pedagogical techniques including devoting each afternoon to a computer lab exercise that use results from research quality simulations and visualization techniques, along with ground based and satellite data to explore concepts introduced during the morning lectures. These labs are suitable for use in wide variety educational settings from formal classroom instruction to outreach programs. The goal of this poster is to outline the goals and content of the lab materials so that instructors may evaluate their potential use in the classroom or other settings.

The potential for geostationary remote sensing of NO2 to improve weather prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Mizzi, A. P.; Anderson, J. L.; Fung, I. Y.; Cohen, R. C.

2017-12-01

Observations of surface winds remain sparse making it challenging to simulate and predict the weather in circumstances of light winds that are most important for poor air quality. Direct measurements of short-lived chemicals from space might be a solution to this challenge. Here we investigate the application of data assimilation of NO­2 columns as will be observed from geostationary orbit to improve predictions and retrospective analysis of surface wind fields. Specifically, synthetic NO2 observations are sampled from a "nature run (NR)" regarded as the true atmosphere. Then NO2 observations are assimilated using EAKF methods into a "control run (CR)" which differs from the NR in the wind field. Wind errors are generated by introducing (1) errors in the initial conditions, (2) creating a model error by using two different formulations for the planetary boundary layer, (3) and by combining both of these effects. Assimilation of NO2 column observations succeeds in reducing wind errors, indicating the prospects for future geostationary atmospheric composition measurements to improve weather forecasting are substantial. We find that due to the temporal heterogeneity of wind errors, the success of this application favors chemical observations of high frequency, such as those from geostationary platform. We also show the potential to improve soil moisture field by assimilating NO­2 columns.

Mexican Space Weather Service (SCIESMEX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Esparza, A.; De la Luz, V.; Mejia-Ambriz, J. C.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.; Corona-Romero, P.; Gonzalez, L. X.

2015-12-01

Recent modifications of the Civil Protection Law in Mexico include now specific mentions to space hazards and space weather phenomena. During the last few years, the UN has promoted international cooperation on Space Weather awareness, studies and monitoring. Internal and external conditions motivated the creation of a Space Weather Service in Mexico (SCIESMEX). The SCIESMEX (www.sciesmex.unam.mx) is operated by the Geophysics Institute at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). The UNAM has the experience of operating several critical national services, including the National Seismological Service (SSN); besides that has a well established scientific group with expertise in space physics and solar- terrestrial phenomena. The SCIESMEX is also related with the recent creation of the Mexican Space Agency (AEM). The project combines a network of different ground instruments covering solar, interplanetary, geomagnetic, and ionospheric observations. The SCIESMEX has already in operation computing infrastructure running the web application, a virtual observatory and a high performance computing server to run numerical models. SCIESMEX participates in the International Space Environment Services (ISES) and in the Inter-progamme Coordination Team on Space Weather (ICTSW) of the Word Meteorological Organization (WMO).

GOES-R Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-17

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, members of the media participate in a mission briefing on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R). Briefing participants from left are: Steven Goodman, NOAA's GOES-R program scientist; Joseph A. Pica, director of the National Weather Service Office of Observations; and Sandra Cauffman, deputy director of NASA's Earth Science Division. GOES-R is the first satellite in a series of next-generation GOES satellites for NOAA, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. It will launch to a geostationary orbit over the western hemisphere to provide images of storms and help meteorologists predict severe weather conditionals and develop long-range forecasts.

Space programs in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Lou-Chuang; Chang, Guey-Shin; Ting, Nan-Hong

2013-10-01

Taiwan's current and future space programs are briefly introduced in this paper. The National Space Organization (NSPO) in Taiwan has successfully carried out three satellite programs (FORMOSAT-1, 2, &3) since its establishment in 1991. FORMOSAT-1 is a scientific satellite performing three scientific experiments for measuring the density, velocity and temperature of ionospheric plasmas, taking the ocean color image, and conducting Ka-band communication experiments. Equipped with a 2m ground resolution remote sensing instrument, FORMOSAT-2 operates in a sun-synchronous orbit with revisit time equal to one day. This unique feature of the daily revisit capability is significantly useful for post disaster assessment and environmental monitoring. FORMOSAT-2 also carries a scientific payload "Imager of Sprites and Upper Atmospheric Lightning (ISUAL)". ISUAL provides the world's first long-term satellite observations on the lighting phenomenon in the earth's upper atmosphere. FORMOSAT-3 is a constellation of six micro-satellites to collect atmospheric and ionospheric data for weather prediction and for climate, ionosphere, and geodesy research. FORMOSAT-3 has demonstrated the ability to significantly increase the accuracy of weather forecasting by utilizing the GPS Radio Occultation (GPS-RO) technique. Currently, NSPO is pursuing the follow-on space missions of FORMOSAT-5 and FORMOSAT-7. FORMOSAT-5 will be the first to utilize a CMOS detector on a high-resolution earth-observation camera. FORMOSAT-7 is a joint mission of Taiwan/US to deploy a 12-satellite constellation operational system to provide dense and timely GNSS RO data to the global communities for real-time weather forecast as well as space science research.

Growing Diversity in Space Weather and Climate Change Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, L. P.; Ng, C.; Marchese, P.; Austin, S.; Frost, J.; Cheung, T. D.; Robbins, I.; Carlson, B. E.; Steiner, J. C.; Tremberger, G.; Paglione, T.; Damas, C.; Howard, A.; Scalzo, F.

2013-12-01

Space Weather and Global Climate Impacts are critical items on the present national and international science agendas. Understanding and forecasting solar activity is increasingly important for manned space flight, unmanned missions (including communications satellites, satellites that monitor the space and earth environment), and regional power grids. The ability to predict the effects of forcings and feedback mechanisms on global and local climate is critical to survival of the inhabitants of planet Earth. It is therefore important to motivate students to continue their studies via advanced degrees and pursue careers related to these areas. This CUNY-based initiative, supported by NASA and NSF, provided undergraduate research experience for more than 70 students in topics ranging from urban impacts of global climate change to magnetic rope structure, solar flares and CMEs. Other research topics included investigations of the ionosphere using a CubeSat, stratospheric aerosols in Jupiter's atmosphere, and ocean climate modeling. Mentors for the primarily summer research experiences included CUNY faculty, GISS and GSFC scientists. Students were recruited from CUNY colleges as well as other colleges including Spelman, Cornell, Rutgers and SUNY colleges. Fifty-eight percent of the undergraduate students were under-represented minorities and thirty-four percent were female. Many of the research teams included high school teachers and students as well as graduate students. Supporting workshops for students included data analysis and visualization tools, space weather, planetary energy balance and BalloonSats. The project is supported by NASA awards NNX10AE72G and NNX09AL77G, and NSF REU Site award 0851932.

Integrating Wind Profiling Radars and Radiosonde Observations with Model Point Data to Develop a Decision Support Tool to Assess Upper-Level Winds for Space Launch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Flinn, Clay

2013-01-01

On the day of launch, the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) monitor the upper-level winds for their launch customers. During launch operations, the payload/launch team sometimes asks the LWOs if they expect the upper-level winds to change during the countdown. The LWOs used numerical weather prediction model point forecasts to provide the information, but did not have the capability to quickly retrieve or adequately display the upper-level observations and compare them directly in the same display to the model point forecasts to help them determine which model performed the best. The LWOs requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a graphical user interface (GUI) that will plot upper-level wind speed and direction observations from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Automated Meteorological Profiling System (AMPS) rawinsondes with point forecast wind profiles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Mesoscale (NAM), Rapid Refresh (RAP) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models to assess the performance of these models. The AMU suggested adding observations from the NASA 50 MHz wind profiler and one of the US Air Force 915 MHz wind profilers, both located near the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Shuttle Landing Facility, to supplement the AMPS observations with more frequent upper-level profiles. Figure 1 shows a map of KSC/CCAFS with the locations of the observation sites and the model point forecasts.

Space Weathering of Rocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noble, Sarah

2011-01-01

Space weathering discussions have generally centered around soils but exposed rocks will also incur the effects of weathering. On the Moon, rocks make up only a very small percentage of the exposed surface and areas where rocks are exposed, like central peaks, are often among the least space weathered regions we find in remote sensing data. However, our studies of weathered Ap 17 rocks 76015 and 76237 show that significant amounts of weathering products can build up on rock surfaces. Because rocks have much longer surface lifetimes than an individual soil grain, and thus record a longer history of exposure, we can study these products to gain a deeper perspective on the weathering process and better assess the relative impo!1ance of various weathering components on the Moon. In contrast to the lunar case, on small asteroids, like Itokowa, rocks make up a large fraction of the exposed surface. Results from the Hayabusa spacecraft at Itokowa suggest that while the low gravity does not allow for the development of a mature regolith, weathering patinas can and do develop on rock surfaces, in fact, the rocky surfaces were seen to be darker and appear spectrally more weathered than regions with finer materials. To explore how weathering of asteroidal rocks may differ from lunar, a set of ordinary chondrite meteorites (H, L, and LL) which have been subjected to artificial space weathering by nanopulse laser were examined by TEM. NpFe(sup 0) bearing glasses were ubiquitous in both the naturally-weathered lunar and the artificially-weathered meteorite samples.

Space weather monitoring and forecasting in South America: products from the user requests to the development of regional magnetic indices and GNSS vertical error maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Padilha, Antonio; Takahashi, Hisao; Souza, Jonas; Mendes, Odim; Batista, Inez S.; SantAnna, Nilson; Gatto, Rubens; Costa, D. Joaquim

On August 2007 the National Institute for Space Research started a task force to develop and operate a space weather program, which is kwon by the acronyms Embrace that stands for the Portuguese statement “Estudo e Monitoramento BRAasileiro de Clima Espacial” Program (Brazilian Space Weather Study and Monitoring program). The main purpose of the Embrace Program is to monitor the space climate and weather from sun, interplanetary space, magnetosphere and ionosphere-atmosphere, and to provide useful information to space related communities, technological, industrial and academic areas. Since then we have being visiting several different space weather costumers and we have host two workshops of Brazilian space weather users at the Embrace facilities. From the inputs and requests collected from the users the Embrace Program decided to monitored several physical parameters of the sun-earth environment through a large ground base network of scientific sensors and under collaboration with space weather centers partners. Most of these physical parameters are daily published on the Brazilian space weather program web portal, related to the entire network sensors available. A comprehensive data bank and an interface layer are under development to allow an easy and direct access to the useful information. Nowadays, the users will count on products derived from a GNSS monitor network that covers most of the South American territory; a digisonde network that monitors the ionospheric profiles in two equatorial sites and in one low latitude site; several solar radio telescopes to monitor solar activity, and a magnetometer network, besides a global ionospheric physical model. Regarding outreach, we publish a daily bulletin in Portuguese with the status of the space weather environment on the Sun, in the Interplanetary Medium and close to the Earth. Since December 2011, all these activities are carried out at the Embrace Headquarter, a building located at the INPE's main campus. Recently, we have release brand new products, among them, some regional magnetic indices and the GNSS vertical error map over South America. Contacting Author: C. M. Denardini (clezio.denardin@inpe.br)

Direct Determination of the Space Weathering Rates in Lunar Soils and Itokawa Regolith from Sample Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, L. P.; Berger, E. L.; Christoffersen, R.; Zhang, S.

2016-01-01

Space weathering effects on airless bodies result largely from micrometeorite impacts and solar wind interactions. Decades of research have provided insights into space weathering processes and their effects, but a major unanswered question still remains: what is the rate at which these space weathering effects are acquired in lunar and asteroidal regolith materials? To determine the space weathering rate for the formation of rims on lunar anorthite grains, we combine the rim width and type with the exposure ages of the grains, as determined by the accumulation of solar flare particle tracks. From these analyses, we recently showed that space weathering effects in mature lunar soils (both vapor-deposited rims and solar wind amorphized rims) accumulate and attain steady state in 10(sup 6)-10(sup 7) y. Regolith grains from Itokawa also show evidence for space weathering effects, but in these samples, solar wind interactions appear to dominate over impactrelated effects such as vapor-deposition. While in our lunar work, we focused on anorthite, given its high abundance on the lunar surface, for the Itokawa grains, we focused on olivine. We previously studied 3 olivine grains from Itokawa and determined their solar flare track densities and described their solar wind damaged rims]. We also analyzed olivine grains from lunar soils, measured their track densities and rim widths, and used this data along with the Itokawa results to constrain the space weathering rate on Itokawa. We observe that olivine and anorthite have different responses to solar wind irradiation.

Forecasting Space Weather-Induced GPS Performance Degradation Using Random Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filjar, R.; Filic, M.; Milinkovic, F.

2017-12-01

Space weather and ionospheric dynamics have a profound effect on positioning performance of the Global Satellite Navigation System (GNSS). However, the quantification of that effect is still the subject of scientific activities around the world. In the latest contribution to the understanding of the space weather and ionospheric effects on satellite-based positioning performance, we conducted a study of several candidates for forecasting method for space weather-induced GPS positioning performance deterioration. First, a 5-days set of experimentally collected data was established, encompassing the space weather and ionospheric activity indices (including: the readings of the Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance (SID) monitors, components of geomagnetic field strength, global Kp index, Dst index, GPS-derived Total Electron Content (TEC) samples, standard deviation of TEC samples, and sunspot number) and observations of GPS positioning error components (northing, easting, and height positioning error) derived from the Adriatic Sea IGS reference stations' RINEX raw pseudorange files in quiet space weather periods. This data set was split into the training and test sub-sets. Then, a selected set of supervised machine learning methods based on Random Forest was applied to the experimentally collected data set in order to establish the appropriate regional (the Adriatic Sea) forecasting models for space weather-induced GPS positioning performance deterioration. The forecasting models were developed in the R/rattle statistical programming environment. The forecasting quality of the regional forecasting models developed was assessed, and the conclusions drawn on the advantages and shortcomings of the regional forecasting models for space weather-caused GNSS positioning performance deterioration.

STEREO as a "Planetary Hazards" Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guhathakurta, M.; Thompson, B. J.

2014-01-01

NASA's twin STEREO probes, launched in 2006, have advanced the art and science of space weather forecasting more than any other spacecraft or solar observatory. By surrounding the Sun, they provide previously-impossible early warnings of threats approaching Earth as they develop on the solar far side. They have also revealed the 3D shape and inner structure of CMEs-massive solar storms that can trigger geomagnetic storms when they collide with Earth. This improves the ability of forecasters to anticipate the timing and severity of such events. Moreover, the unique capability of STEREO to track CMEs in three dimensions allows forecasters to make predictions for other planets, giving rise to the possibility of interplanetary space weather forecasting too. STEREO is one of those rare missions for which "planetary hazards" refers to more than one world. The STEREO probes also hold promise for the study of comets and potentially hazardous asteroids.

X-class Flare Erupts from Sun on April 24

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

The sun emitted a significant solar flare, peaking at 8:27 p.m. EDT on April 24, 2014. Images of the flare were captured by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory. Solar flares are powerful bursts of radiation. Harmful radiation from a flare cannot pass through Earth's atmosphere to physically affect humans on the ground, however -- when intense enough -- they can disturb the atmosphere in the layer where GPS and communications signals travel. To see how this event may impact Earth, please visit NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center at spaceweather.gov, the U.S. government's official source for space weather forecasts, alerts, watches and warnings. This flare is classified as an X1.4 flare. X-class denotes the most intense flares, while the number provides more information about its strength. An X2 is twice as intense as an X1, an X3 is three times as intense, etc. Credit: NASA/Goddard/SDO Credit: NASA/SDO

Advances in Predicting Magnetic Fields on the Far Side of the Sun

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsey, C. A.

2016-12-01

Techniques in local solar seismology applied to observations of seismic oscillations in the Sun's near hemisphere allow us to map large magnetic regions in the Sun's far hemisphere. Seismic signatures are not nearly as sensitive to magnetic flux as observations in electromagnetic radiation. However, they clearly identify and locate the 400 or so largest active regions in a typical solar cycle, i.e., those of most concern for space-weather forecasting. By themselves, seismic observations are insensitive to magnetic polarity. However, the Hale polarity law offers tantalizing avenues for guessing polarity distributions from seismic signatures as they evolve. I will review what we presently know about the relationship between seismic signatures of active regions and their magnetic and radiative properties, and offer a preliminary assessment of the potential of far-side seismic maps for space-weather forecasting in the coming decade.

AFFECTS - Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communications Through Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bothmer, Volker

2013-04-01

Through the AFFECTS project funded by the European Union's 7th Framework Programme, European and US scientists develop an advanced proto-type space weather warning system to safeguard the operation of telecommunication and navigation systems on Earth to the threat of solar storms. The project is led by the University of Göttingen's Institute for Astrophysics and comprises worldwide leading research and academic institutions and industrial enterprises from Germany, Belgium, Ukraine, Norway and the United States. The key objectives of the AFFECTS project are: State-of-the-art analysis and modelling of the Sun-Earth chain of effects on the Earth's ionosphere and their subsequent impacts on communication systems based on multipoint space observations and complementary ground-based data. Development of a prototype space weather early warning system and reliable space weather forecasts, with specific emphasis on ionospheric applications. Dissemination of new space weather products and services to end users, the scientific community and general public. The presentation summarizes the project highlights, with special emphasis on the developed space weather forecast tools.

The Geospace Mission Definition Team report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kintner, P.; Spann, J.

The Geospace Mission Definition Team (GMDT) is the portion of the Living With a Star (LWS) Program that has been charged by NASA to examine how the Geospace environment responds to solar variability. The goal is to provide science recommendations that guide NASA in the formulation of Geospace missions. The GMDT's first meeting with September 10, 2001 and has met on four subsequent dates. The top level space weather effects were initially defined by the LWS Science Architecture Team (SAT). From these effects the GMDT has distilled general objectives and specific objectives. These objectives have been prioritized and compelling science questions have been identified that are required to address the objectives. A set of candidate missions has been defined with minimum, baseline, and augmentation measurements identified. The priority science questions focus on two broad areas: (1) ionospheric variability, especially at mid-latitudes, that affects navigation and communications and (2) the source, acceleration mechanisms, and sinks of the radiation belts that degrade satellite lifetimes, produce surface charging, and threaten manned space flight. In addition the measurements required for understanding ionospheric variability will also address science issues associated with thermospheric satellite drag and orbital prediction. Candidate missions to address these science focii have been developed and studied. The team concludes that it is possible to address the compelling science questions with a cost effective program that yields major advances in our understanding of space weather science, that inspires and validates better ionospheric and magnetospheric models, and that will enable operational advances mitigating the societal impacts of space weather.

Adverse Space Weather at the Solar Cycle Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, D. N.; Kanekal, S. G.; McCollough, J. P.; Singer, H. J.; Chappell, S. P.; Allen, J. H.

2008-05-01

It is commonly understood that many types of adverse space weather (solar flares, coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic storms) occur most commonly around the maximum of the 11-year sunspot activity cycle. Other types of well-known space weather such as relativistic electron events in the Earth's outer magnetosphere (that produce deep dielectric charging in spacecraft systems) are usually associated with the period just after sunspot maximum. At the present time, we are in the very lowest activity phase of the sunspot cycle (solar minimum). As such we would not expect much in the way of adverse space weather events. However, in early to mid-February of 2008 quite prominent solar coronal holes produced two high-speed streams that in turn stimulated very large, long-duration relativistic electron enhancements in Earth's magnetosphere. These seem to have been associated with several spacecraft operational anomalies at various spacecraft orbital locations. We describe these recent space weather events and assess their operational significance in this presentation. These results show that substantial space weather events can and do occur even during the quietest parts of the solar cycle.

White House and agencies focus on space weather concerns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2012-06-01

"Space weather is a serious matter that can affect human economies around the world," Tamara Dickinson, a senior policy analyst with the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), told attendees at the 2012 Space Weather Enterprise Forum, held 5 June in Washington, D. C. With the 2013 solar maximum nearing, researchers and government agencies are focusing on how the greater solar activity could affect our increasingly technological society and what measures can be taken to help prevent or mitigate any threats to the electricity grid, GPS, and other potentially vulnerable technologies. Dickenson said that there has been an increased awareness about space weather in the White House and that President Barack Obama recently has requested briefing memos on the topic. She highlighted several efforts the administration is taking related to space weather, including a forthcoming national Earth observation strategy, which could be released in July and will include an assessment of space weather. She explained that the strategy document will be part of the fiscal year 2014 presidential budget request and that it will be updated every 3 years.

A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability.

PubMed

Jonas, Seth; Fronczyk, Kassandra; Pratt, Lucas M

2018-03-12

An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social well-being. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events are less frequent, with a small number of historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present initial findings on a unified framework approach to visualize space weather event probability, using a Bayesian model average, in the context of historical extreme events. We present disturbance storm time (Dst) probability (a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance intensity) across multiple return periods and discuss parameters of interest to policymakers and planners in the context of past extreme space weather events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policymakers and planners, the current limitations when compared to other hazards, and several gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

KSC-06pd1276

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-28

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - At the Cape Canaveral weather station in Florida, a member of the weather team looks over the weather balloons inside. The release of a Rawinsonde weather balloon was planned as part of a media tour prior to the launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121 July 1. At the facility, which is operated by the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron, media saw the tools used by the weather team to create the forecast for launch day. They received a briefing on how the launch weather forecast is developed by Shuttle Weather Officer Kathy Winters and met the forecasters for the space shuttle and the expendable launch vehicles. Also participating were members of the Applied Meteorology Unit who provide special expertise to the forecasters by analyzing and interpreting unusual or inconsistent weather data. The media were able to see the release of the Rawinsonde weather balloon carrying instruments aloft to be used as part of developing the forecast. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

Sub-kilometer Numerical Weather Prediction in complex urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leroyer, S.; Bélair, S.; Husain, S.; Vionnet, V.

2013-12-01

A Sub-kilometer atmospheric modeling system with grid-spacings of 2.5 km, 1 km and 250 m and including urban processes is currently being developed at the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) in order to provide more accurate weather forecasts at the city scale. Atmospheric lateral boundary conditions are provided with the 15-km Canadian Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS). Surface physical processes are represented with the Town Energy Balance (TEB) model for the built-up covers and with the Interactions between the Surface, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model for the natural covers. In this study, several research experiments over large metropolitan areas and using observational networks at the urban scale are presented, with a special emphasis on the representation of local atmospheric circulations and their impact on extreme weather forecasting. First, numerical simulations are performed over the Vancouver metropolitan area during a summertime Intense Observing Period (IOP of 14-15 August 2008) of the Environmental Prediction in Canadian Cities (EPiCC) observational network. The influence of the horizontal resolution on the fine-scale representation of the sea-breeze development over the city is highlighted (Leroyer et al., 2013). Then severe storms cases occurring in summertime within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are simulated. In view of supporting the 2015 PanAmerican and Para-Pan games to be hold in GTA, a dense observational network has been recently deployed over this region to support model evaluations at the urban and meso scales. In particular, simulations are conducted for the case of 8 July 2013 when exceptional rainfalls were recorded. Leroyer, S., S. Bélair, J. Mailhot, S.Z. Husain, 2013: Sub-kilometer Numerical Weather Prediction in an Urban Coastal Area: A case study over the Vancouver Metropolitan Area, submitted to Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

High-Resolution Mesoscale Model Setup for the Eastern Range and Wallops Flight Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.

2015-01-01

Mesoscale weather conditions can have an adverse effect on space launch, landing, ground processing, and weather advisories, watches, and warnings at the Eastern Range (ER) in Florida and Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) in Virginia. During summer, land-sea interactions across Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lead to sea breeze front formation, which can spawn deep convection that can hinder operations and endanger personnel and resources. Many other weak locally-driven low-level boundaries and their interactions with the sea breeze front and each other can also initiate deep convection in the KSC/CCAFS area. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the local forecasters. Surface winds during the transition seasons (spring and fall) pose the most difficulties for the forecasters at WFF. They also encounter problems forecasting convective activity and temperature during those seasons. Therefore, accurate mesoscale model forecasts are needed to better forecast a variety of unique weather phenomena. Global and national scale models cannot properly resolve important local-scale weather features at each location due to their horizontal resolutions being much too coarse. Therefore, a properly tuned local data assimilation (DA) and forecast model at a high resolution is needed to provide improved capability. To accomplish this, a number of sensitivity tests were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to determine the best DA/model configuration for operational use at each of the space launch ranges to best predict winds, precipitation, and temperature. A set of Perl scripts to run the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)/WRF in real-time were provided by NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT). The GSI can analyze many types of observational data including satellite, radar, and conventional data. The GSI/WRF scripts use a cycled GSI system similar to the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The scripts run a 12-hour pre-cycle in which data are assimilated from 12 hours prior up to the model initialization time. A number of different model configurations were tested for both the ER and WFF by varying the horizontal resolution on which the data assimilation was done. Three different grid configurations were run for the ER and two configurations were run for WFF for archive cases from 27 Aug 2013 through 10 Nov 2013. To quantify model performance, standard model output will be compared to the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) data. The MADIS observation data will be compared to the WRF forecasts using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package. In addition, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Stage IV precipitation data will be used to validate the WRF precipitation forecasts. The author will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for each space launch range.

Investigating Anomalies in the Output Generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decicco, Nicholas; Trout, Joseph; Manson, J. Russell; Rios, Manny; King, David

2015-04-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is an advanced mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model comprised of two numerical cores, the Numerical Mesoscale Modeling (NMM) core, and the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) core. An investigation was done to determine the source of erroneous output generated by the NMM core. In particular were the appearance of zero values at regularly spaced grid cells in output fields and the NMM core's evident (mis)use of static geographic information at a resolution lower than the nesting level for which the core is performing computation. A brief discussion of the high-level modular architecture of the model is presented as well as methods utilized to identify the cause of these problems. Presented here are the initial results from a research grant, ``A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Richard Stockton College of NJ and the FAA''.

About the National Forecast Chart

Science.gov Websites

General Weather WPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for coverage, and weather type from the NWS NDFD Weather Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland 20740 Weather Prediction

Recent Geoeffective Space Weather Events and Technological System Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redmon, R. J.; Denig, W. F.; Loto'aniu, P. T. M.; Singer, H. J.; Wilkinson, D. C.; Knipp, D. J.; Kilcommons, L. M.

2015-12-01

We review the state of the space environment for three recent intense geoeffective storms using NOAA observations and model predictions. On February 27, 2014, the US Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) navigation service over eastern Alaska and northeastern continental US was degraded due to a strong ionospheric storm. Similarly, on March 17, the St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm commenced, resulting in the most intense storm of the solar cycle to date with mid-latitude auroral sightings, intense ionospheric irregularities and WAAS degradation. On June 22, a strong (G4) geomagnetic storm commenced following the impact of 3 coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Late on June 22, solar protons entered the polar regions along open magnetic field lines producing intense radio absorption. We summarize, compare and contrast the space environmental state for each of these events from the perspective of NOAA observations and model predictions. We do so by leveraging GOES and POES/MetOp observations of the space radiation environment, DMSP observations of precipitating particles and bulk plasma parameters, OVATION Prime predictions of the auroral energy input and the US Total Electron Content (USTEC) and D-Region Absorption Prediction (DRAP) modeled response of the ionosphere. We discuss impacts to technological systems as available.

Bringing Space Weather Down to Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reiff, P. H.; Sumners, C.

2005-05-01

Most of the public has no idea what Space Weather is, but a number of innovative programs, web sites, magazine articles, TV shows and planetarium shows have taken space weather from an unknown quantity to a much more visible field. This paper reviews new developments, including the new Space Weather journal, the very popular spaceweather.com website, new immersive planetarium shows that can go "on the road", and well-publicized Sun-Earth Day activities. Real-time data and reasonably accurate spaceweather forecasts are available from several websites, with many subscribers. Even the renaissance of amateur radio because of Homeland Security brings a new generation of learners to wonder what is going on in the Sun today. The NSF Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling has a dedicated team to reach both the public and a greater diversity of new scientists.

Visualizing Space Weather: The Planeterrella Auroral Simulator as a Heliophysics Public Outreach Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masongsong, E. V.; Lilensten, J.; Booth, M. J.; Suri, G.; Heflinger, T. G.; Angelopoulos, V.

2014-12-01

The NASA THEMIS and ARTEMIS satellite missions study "space weather," which describes the solar wind influence on Earth's protective magnetic shield, the magnetosphere. Space weather is important to study and predict because it can damage critical GPS and communications satellites, harm space travelers, and even disable our global electrical grid. The Planeterrella is an innovative heliophysics outreach demonstration, expanding public awareness of space weather by visualizing the sun-Earth connection up close and in-person. Using a glass vacuum chamber, two magnetized spheres and a 1kV power supply, the device can simulate plasma configurations of the solar corona, solar wind, Van Allen radiation belts, and auroral ovals, all of which are observable only by satellites. This "aurora in a bottle" is a modernized version of the original Terrella built by Kristian Birkeland in the 1890s to show that the aurora are electrical in nature. Adapted from plans by Lilensten et al. at CNRS-IPAG, the UCLA Planeterrella was completed in Nov. 2013, the second device of its kind in the U.S., and the centerpiece of the THEMIS/ARTEMIS mobile public outreach exhibit. In combination with captivating posters, 3D magnetic field models, dazzling aurora videos and magnetosphere animations, the Planeterrella has already introduced over 1200 people to the electrical link between our sun and the planets. Most visitors had seen solar flare images in the news, however the Planeterrella experience enhanced their appreciation of the dynamic solar wind and its effects on Earth's invisible magnetic field. Most importantly, visitors young and old realized that magnets are not just cool toys or only for powering hybrid car motors and MRIs, they are a fundamental aspect of ongoing life on Earth and are key to the formation and evolution of planets, moons, and stars, extending far beyond our galaxy to other planetary systems throughout the universe. Novel visualizations such as the Planeterrella can significantly increase awareness of space weather and act as a catalyst for the pursuit of STEM careers by allowing students to form a personalized, emotional connection to the incredible phenomena surrounding our planet. This can translate into greater support for the heliophysics satellite infrastrucure that safeguards our modern society.

Cost-Loss Analysis of Ensemble Solar Wind Forecasting: Space Weather Use of Terrestrial Weather Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henley, E. M.; Pope, E. C. D.

2017-12-01

This commentary concerns recent work on solar wind forecasting by Owens and Riley (2017). The approach taken makes effective use of tools commonly used in terrestrial weather—notably, via use of a simple model—generation of an "ensemble" forecast, and application of a "cost-loss" analysis to the resulting probabilistic information, to explore the benefit of this forecast to users with different risk appetites. This commentary aims to highlight these useful techniques to the wider space weather audience and to briefly discuss the general context of application of terrestrial weather approaches to space weather.

Analysis of Correlation between Ionospheric Spatial Gradients and Space Weather Intensity under Nominal Conditions for Ground-Based Augmentation Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.

2013-12-01

Ground-Based Augmentation Systems (GBAS) support aircraft precision approach and landing by providing differential GPS corrections to aviation users. For GBAS applications, most of ionospheric errors are removed by applying the differential corrections. However, ionospheric correction errors may exist due to ionosphere spatial decorrelation between GBAS ground facility and users. Thus, the standard deviation of ionosphere spatial decorrelation (σvig) is estimated and included in the computation of error bounds on user position solution. The σvig of 4mm/km, derived for the Conterminous United States (CONUS), bounds one-sigma ionospheric spatial gradients under nominal conditions (including active, but not stormy condition) with an adequate safety margin [1]. The conservatism residing in the current σvig by fixing it to a constant value for all non-stormy conditions could be mitigated by subdividing ionospheric conditions into several classes and using different σvig for each class. This new concept, real-time σvig adaptation, will be possible if the level of ionospheric activity can be well classified based on space weather intensity. This paper studies correlation between the statistics of nominal ionospheric spatial gradients and space weather indices. The analysis was carried out using two sets of data collected from Continuous Operating Reference Station (CORS) Network; 9 consecutive (nominal and ionospherically active) days in 2004 and 19 consecutive (relatively 'quiet') days in 2010. Precise ionospheric delay estimates are obtained using the simplified truth processing method and vertical ionospheric gradients are computed using the well-known 'station pair method' [2]. The remaining biases which include carrier-phase leveling errors and Inter-frequency Bias (IFB) calibration errors are reduced by applying linear slip detection thresholds. The σvig was inflated to overbound the distribution of vertical ionospheric gradients with the required confidence level. Using the daily maximum values of σvig, day-to-day variations of spatial gradients are compared to those of two space weather indices; Disturbance, Storm Time (Dst) index and Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz (IMF Bz). The day-to-day variations of both space weather indices showed a good agreement with those of daily maximum σvig. The results demonstrate that ionospheric gradient statistics are highly correlated with space weather indices on nominal and off-nominal days. Further investigation on this relationship would facilitate prediction of upcoming ionospheric behavior based on space weather information and adjusting σvig in real time. Consequently it will improve GBAS availability by adding external information to operation. [1] Lee, J., S. Pullen, S. Datta-Barua, and P. Enge (2007), Assessment of ionosphere spatial decorrelation for GPS-based aircraft landing systems, J. Aircraft, 44(5), 1662-1669, doi:10.2514/1.28199. [2] Jung, S., and J. Lee (2012), Long-term ionospheric anomaly monitoring for ground based augmentation systems, Radio Sci., 47, RS4006, doi:10.1029/2012RS005016.

Space Weather Outreach: Connection to STEM Standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dusenbery, P. B.

2008-12-01

Many scientists are studying the Sun-Earth system and attempting to provide timely, accurate, and reliable space environment observations and forecasts. Research programs and missions serve as an ideal focal point for creating educational content, making this an ideal time to inform the public about the importance and value of space weather research. In order to take advantage of this opportunity, the Space Science Institute (SSI) is developing a comprehensive Space Weather Outreach program to reach students, educators, and other members of the public, and share with them the exciting discoveries from this important scientific discipline. The Space Weather Outreach program has the following five components: (1) the Space Weather Center Website that includes online educational games; (2) Small Exhibits for Libraries, Shopping Malls, and Science Centers; (3) After-School Programs; (4) Professional Development Workshops for Educators, and (5) an innovative Evaluation and Education Research project. Its overarching goal is to inspire, engage, and educate a broad spectrum of the public and make strategic and innovative connections between informal and K-12 education communities. An important factor in the success of this program will be its alignment with STEM standards especially those related to science and mathematics. This presentation will describe the Space Weather Outreach program and how standards are being used in the development of each of its components.

Space Weather Modeling Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hesse, Michael

2006-01-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the Rapid Prototyping Centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires close collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide a description of the current CCMC status, discuss current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and describe the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

Space Weather Modeling at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hesse M.

2005-01-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the rapid prototyping centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires dose collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as distributed computing facilities provided by the US Air Force. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide updates on CCMC status, on current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and on the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

Relationship between coronal holes and high speed streams at L1: arrival times, durations, and intensities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, B.; Bu, X.; Liu, S.; Gong, J.

2017-12-01

Coronal holes are sources of high-speed steams (HSS) of solar wind. When coronal holes appear at mid/low latitudes on the Sun, consequential HSSs may impact Earth and cause recurrent geospace environment disturbances, such as geomagnetic storms, relativistic electron enhancements at the geosynchronous orbit, and thermosphere density enhancements. Thus, it is of interests for space weather forecasters to predict when (arrival times), how long (time durations), and how severe (intensities) HSSs may impact Earth when they notice coronal holes on the sun and are anticipating their geoeffectiveness. In this study, relationship between coronal holes and high speed streams will be statistically investigated. Several coronal hole parameters, including passage times of solar central meridian, coronal hole longitudinal widths, intensities reflected by mean brightness, are derived using Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) images for years 2011 to 2016. These parameters will be correlated with in-situ solar wind measurements measured at the L1 point by the ACE spacecraft, which can give some results that are useful for space weather forecaster in predicting the arrival times, durations, and intensities of coronal hole high-speed streams in about 3 days advance.

Community-wide validation of geospace model local K-index predictions to support model transition to operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glocer, A.; Rastätter, L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Singer, H. J.; Balch, C.; Weimer, D.; Welling, D.; Wiltberger, M.; Raeder, J.; Weigel, R. S.; McCollough, J.; Wing, S.

2016-07-01

We present the latest result of a community-wide space weather model validation effort coordinated among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), model developers, and the broader science community. Validation of geospace models is a critical activity for both building confidence in the science results produced by the models and in assessing the suitability of the models for transition to operations. Indeed, a primary motivation of this work is supporting NOAA/SWPC's effort to select a model or models to be transitioned into operations. Our validation efforts focus on the ability of the models to reproduce a regional index of geomagnetic disturbance, the local K-index. Our analysis includes six events representing a range of geomagnetic activity conditions and six geomagnetic observatories representing midlatitude and high-latitude locations. Contingency tables, skill scores, and distribution metrics are used for the quantitative analysis of model performance. We consider model performance on an event-by-event basis, aggregated over events, at specific station locations, and separated into high-latitude and midlatitude domains. A summary of results is presented in this report, and an online tool for detailed analysis is available at the CCMC.

How Reliable Is the Prediction of Solar Wind Background?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, Lan K.; MacNeice, Peter; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Odstrcil, Dusan; Jackson, Bernard; Yu, Hsiu-Shan; Riley, Pete; Sokolov, Igor

2015-04-01

The prediction of solar wind background is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Multiple coronal and heliospheric models have been installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) to produce the solar wind, including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data. By comparing the modeling results with the OMNI data over 7 Carrington rotations in 2007, we have conducted a third-party validation of these models for the near-Earth solar wind. This work will help the models get ready for the transition from research to operation. Besides visual comparison, we have quantitatively assessed the models’ capabilities in reproducing the time series and statistics of solar wind parameters. Using improved algorithms, we have identified magnetic field sector boundaries (SBs) and slow-to-fast stream interaction regions (SIRs) as focused structures. The success rate of capturing them and the time offset vary largely with models. For this period, the 2014 version of MAS-Enlil model works best for SBs, and the heliospheric tomography works best for SIRs. General strengths and weaknesses for each model are identified to provide an unbiased reference to model developers and users.

Community-Wide Validation of Geospace Model Local K-Index Predictions to Support Model Transition to Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glocer, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Singer, H. J.; Balch, C.; Weimer, D.; Welling, D.; Wiltberger, M.; Raeder, J.;

Big Data Analytics for Modelling and Forecasting of Geomagnetic Field Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, H. L.

2016-12-01

A massive amount of data are produced and stored in research areas of space weather and space climate. However, the value of a vast majority of the data acquired every day may not be effectively or efficiently exploited in our daily practice when we try to forecast solar wind parameters and geomagnetic field indices using these recorded measurements or digital signals, probably due to the challenges stemming from the dealing with big data which are characterized by the 4V futures: volume (a massively large amount of data), variety (a great number of different types of data), velocity (a requirement of quick processing of the data), and veracity (the trustworthiness and usability of the data). In order to obtain more reliable and accurate predictive models for geomagnetic field indices, it requires that models should be developed from the big data analytics perspective (or it at least benefits from such a perspective). This study proposes a few data-based modelling frameworks which aim to produce more efficient predictive models for space weather parameters forecasting by means of system identification and big data analytics. More specifically, it aims to build more reliable mathematical models that characterise the relationship between solar wind parameters and geomagnetic filed indices, for example the dependent relationship of Dst and Kp indices on a few solar wind parameters and magnetic field indices, namely, solar wind velocity (V), southward interplanetary magnetic field (Bs), solar wind rectified electric field (VBs), and dynamic flow pressure (P). Examples are provided to illustrate how the proposed modelling approaches are applied to Dst and Kp index prediction.

Space weather activities in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.

The Sun has long been understood as a source of energy for mankind. Only in the more modern times has it also been seen as a source of disturbances in the space environment of the Earth, but also of the other planets and the heliosphere. Space weather research had an early start in Europe with investigations of Birkeland, Fitzgerald and Lodge, ultimately leading to an understanding of geomagnetic storms and their relation to the Sun. Today, European space weather activities range from the study of the Sun, through the inner heliosphere, to the magnetosphere, ionosphere, atmosphere, down to ground level effects. We will give an overview of European space weather activities and focus on the chain of events from Sun to Earth.

The Perils of Space Weather

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reeves, Geoff

The Sun’s continuous bombardment of the Earth with high-energy electrons, protons, and other nuclei results in space weather that can wreak havoc on the nation’s satellites, aircraft, communications networks, navigation systems, and the electric power grid. Because of the potential for space weather to so critically impact national security, Los Alamos National Laboratory has been studying it for decades, designing and building space-based sensors to detect emissions from potential nuclear events here on Earth and to study natural and man-made radiation in space.

Estimating 1 min rain rate distributions from numerical weather prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paulson, Kevin S.

2017-01-01

Internationally recognized prognostic models of rain fade on terrestrial and Earth-space EHF links rely fundamentally on distributions of 1 min rain rates. Currently, in Rec. ITU-R P.837-6, these distributions are generated using the Salonen-Poiares Baptista method where 1 min rain rate distributions are estimated from long-term average annual accumulations provided by numerical weather prediction (NWP). This paper investigates an alternative to this method based on the distribution of 6 h accumulations available from the same NWPs. Rain rate fields covering the UK, produced by the Nimrod network of radars, are integrated to estimate the accumulations provided by NWP, and these are linked to distributions of fine-scale rain rates. The proposed method makes better use of the available data. It is verified on 15 NWP regions spanning the UK, and the extension to other regions is discussed.

On possible influence of space weather on agricultural markets: Necessary conditions and probable scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pustil'nik, L.; Yom Din, G.

2013-01-01

We present the results of study of a possible relationship between the space weather and terrestrial markets of agricultural products. It is shown that to implement the possible effect of space weather on the terrestrial harvests and prices, a simultaneous fulfillment of three conditions is required: 1) sensitivity of local weather (cloud cover, atmospheric circulation) to the state of space weather; 2) sensitivity of the area-specific agricultural crops to the weather anomalies (belonging to the area of risk farming); 3) relative isolation of the market, making it difficult to damp the price hikes by the external food supplies. Four possible scenarios of the market response to the modulations of local terrestrial weather via the solar activity are described. The data sources and analysismethods applied to detect this relationship are characterized. We describe the behavior of 22 European markets during the medieval period, in particular, during the Maunder minimum (1650-1715). We demonstrate a reliable manifestation of the influence of space weather on prices, discovered in the statistics of intervals between the price hikes and phase price asymmetry. We show that the effects of phase price asymmetry persist even during the early modern period in the U.S. in the production of the durum wheat. Within the proposed approach, we analyze the statistics of depopulation in the eighteenth and nineteenth century Iceland, induced by the famine due to a sharp livestock reduction owing to, in its turn, the lack of foodstuff due to the local weather anomalies. A high statistical significance of temporal matching of these events with the periods of extreme solar activity is demonstrated. We discuss the possible consequences of the observed global climate change in the formation of new areas of risk farming, sensitive to space weather.

Appraisal of Weather Research and Forecasting Model Downscaling of Hydro-meteorological Variables and their Applicability for Discharge Prediction: Prognostic Approach for Ungauged Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, P. K.; Han, D.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.; Bray, M.; Islam, T.; Petropoulos, G.; Gupta, M.

2015-12-01

Hydro-meteorological variables such as Precipitation and Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) are the most important variables for discharge prediction. However, it is not always possible to get access to them from ground based measurements, particularly in ungauged catchments. The mesoscale model WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting model) can be used for prediction of hydro-meteorological variables. However, hydro-meteorologists would like to know how well the downscaled global data products are as compared to ground based measurements and whether it is possible to use the downscaled data for ungauged catchments. Even with gauged catchments, most of the stations have only rain and flow gauges installed. Measurements of other weather hydro-meteorological variables such as solar radiation, wind speed, air temperature, and dew point are usually missing and thus complicate the problems. In this study, for downscaling the global datasets, the WRF model is setup over the Brue catchment with three nested domains (D1, D2 and D3) of horizontal grid spacing of 81 km, 27 km and 9 km are used. The hydro-meteorological variables are downscaled using the WRF model from the National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis datasets and subsequently used for the ETo estimation using the Penman Monteith equation. The analysis of weather variables and precipitation are compared against the ground based datasets, which indicate that the datasets are in agreement with the observed datasets for complete monitoring period as well as during the seasons except precipitation whose performance is poorer in comparison to the measured rainfall. After a comparison, the WRF estimated precipitation and ETo are then used as a input parameter in the Probability Distributed Model (PDM) for discharge prediction. The input data and model parameter sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation are also taken into account for the PDM calibration and prediction following the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach. The overall analysis suggests that the uncertainty estimates in predicted discharge using WRF downscaled ETo have comparable performance to ground based observed datasets and hence is promising for discharge prediction in the absence of ground based measurements.

Cloud Computing Applications in Support of Earth Science Activities at Marshall Space Flight Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew L.; Limaye, Ashutosh S.; Srikishen, Jayanthi

2011-01-01

Currently, the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Platform is available to Agency personnel in a pre-release status as the system undergoes a formal operational readiness review. Over the past year, two projects within the Earth Science Office at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have been investigating the performance and value of Nebula s "Infrastructure as a Service", or "IaaS" concept and applying cloud computing concepts to advance their respective mission goals. The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique NASA satellite observations and weather forecasting capabilities for use within the operational forecasting community through partnerships with NOAA s National Weather Service (NWS). SPoRT has evaluated the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on virtual machines deployed within Nebula and used Nebula instances to simulate local forecasts in support of regional forecast studies of interest to select NWS forecast offices. In addition to weather forecasting applications, rapidly deployable Nebula virtual machines have supported the processing of high resolution NASA satellite imagery to support disaster assessment following the historic severe weather and tornado outbreak of April 27, 2011. Other modeling and satellite analysis activities are underway in support of NASA s SERVIR program, which integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor environmental change and improve disaster response in Central America, the Caribbean, Africa, and the Himalayas. Leveraging SPoRT s experience, SERVIR is working to establish a real-time weather forecasting model for Central America. Other modeling efforts include hydrologic forecasts for Kenya, driven by NASA satellite observations and reanalysis data sets provided by the broader meteorological community. Forecast modeling efforts are supplemented by short-term forecasts of convective initiation, determined by geostationary satellite observations processed on virtual machines powered by Nebula.