Cross-National Analysis of the Associations among Mental Disorders and Suicidal Behavior: Findings from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

PubMed Central

Nock, Matthew K.; Hwang, Irving; Sampson, Nancy; Kessler, Ronald C.; Angermeyer, Matthias; Beautrais, Annette; Borges, Guilherme; Bromet, Evelyn; Bruffaerts, Ronny; de Girolamo, Giovanni; de Graaf, Ron; Florescu, Silvia; Gureje, Oye; Haro, Josep Maria; Hu, Chiyi; Huang, Yueqin; Karam, Elie G.; Kawakami, Norito; Kovess, Viviane; Levinson, Daphna; Posada-Villa, Jose; Sagar, Rajesh; Tomov, Toma; Viana, Maria Carmen; Williams, David R.

2009-01-01

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide. Mental disorders are among the strongest predictors of suicide; however, little is known about which disorders are uniquely predictive of suicidal behavior, the extent to which disorders predict suicide attempts beyond their association with suicidal thoughts, and whether these associations are similar across developed and developing countries. This study was designed to test each of these questions with a focus on nonfatal suicide attempts. Methods and Findings Data on the lifetime presence and age-of-onset of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition (DSM-IV) mental disorders and nonfatal suicidal behaviors were collected via structured face-to-face interviews with 108,664 respondents from 21 countries participating in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. The results show that each lifetime disorder examined significantly predicts the subsequent first onset of suicide attempt (odds ratios [ORs] = 2.9–8.9). After controlling for comorbidity, these associations decreased substantially (ORs = 1.5–5.6) but remained significant in most cases. Overall, mental disorders were equally predictive in developed and developing countries, with a key difference being that the strongest predictors of suicide attempts in developed countries were mood disorders, whereas in developing countries impulse-control, substance use, and post-traumatic stress disorders were most predictive. Disaggregation of the associations between mental disorders and nonfatal suicide attempts showed that these associations are largely due to disorders predicting the onset of suicidal thoughts rather than predicting progression from thoughts to attempts. In the few instances where mental disorders predicted the transition from suicidal thoughts to attempts, the significant disorders are characterized by anxiety and poor impulse-control. The limitations of this study include the use of retrospective self-reports of lifetime occurrence and age-of-onset of mental disorders and suicidal behaviors, as well as the narrow focus on mental disorders as predictors of nonfatal suicidal behaviors, each of which must be addressed in future studies. Conclusions This study found that a wide range of mental disorders increased the odds of experiencing suicide ideation. However, after controlling for psychiatric comorbidity, only disorders characterized by anxiety and poor impulse-control predict which people with suicide ideation act on such thoughts. These findings provide a more fine-grained understanding of the associations between mental disorders and subsequent suicidal behavior than previously available and indicate that mental disorders predict suicidal behaviors similarly in both developed and developing countries. Future research is needed to delineate the mechanisms through which people come to think about suicide and subsequently progress from ideation to attempts. Please see later in the article for Editors' Summary PMID:19668361

Testing the bi-dimensional effects of attitudes on behavioural intentions and subsequent behaviour.

PubMed

Elliott, Mark A; Brewster, Sarah E; Thomson, James A; Malcolm, Carly; Rasmussen, Susan

2015-11-01

Attitudes are typically treated as unidimensional predictors of both behavioural intentions and subsequent behaviour. On the basis of previous research showing that attitudes comprise two independent, positive and negative dimensions, we hypothesized that attitudes would be bi-dimensional predictors of both behavioural intentions and subsequent behaviour. We focused on health-risk behaviours. We therefore also hypothesized that the positive dimension of attitude (evaluations of positive behavioural outcomes) would better predict both behavioural intentions and subsequent behaviour than would the negative dimension, consistent with the positivity bias/offset principle. In Study 1 (cross sectional design), N = 109 university students completed questionnaire measures of their intentions to binge-drink and the positive and negative dimensions of attitude. Consistent with the hypotheses, both attitude dimensions independently predicted behavioural intentions and the positive dimension was a significantly better predictor than was the negative dimension. The same pattern of findings emerged in Study 2 (cross sectional design; N = 186 university students) when we predicted intentions to binge-drink, smoke and consume a high-fat diet. Similarly, in Study 3 (prospective design; N = 1,232 speed limit offenders), both the positive and negative dimensions of attitude predicted subsequent (6-month post-baseline) speeding behaviour on two different road types and the positive dimension was the better predictor. The implications for understanding the motivation of behaviour and the development of behaviour-change interventions are discussed. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Comparative study of biodegradability prediction of chemicals using decision trees, functional trees, and logistic regression.

PubMed

Chen, Guangchao; Li, Xuehua; Chen, Jingwen; Zhang, Ya-Nan; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M

2014-12-01

Biodegradation is the principal environmental dissipation process of chemicals. As such, it is a dominant factor determining the persistence and fate of organic chemicals in the environment, and is therefore of critical importance to chemical management and regulation. In the present study, the authors developed in silico methods assessing biodegradability based on a large heterogeneous set of 825 organic compounds, using the techniques of the C4.5 decision tree, the functional inner regression tree, and logistic regression. External validation was subsequently carried out by 2 independent test sets of 777 and 27 chemicals. As a result, the functional inner regression tree exhibited the best predictability with predictive accuracies of 81.5% and 81.0%, respectively, on the training set (825 chemicals) and test set I (777 chemicals). Performance of the developed models on the 2 test sets was subsequently compared with that of the Estimation Program Interface (EPI) Suite Biowin 5 and Biowin 6 models, which also showed a better predictability of the functional inner regression tree model. The model built in the present study exhibits a reasonable predictability compared with existing models while possessing a transparent algorithm. Interpretation of the mechanisms of biodegradation was also carried out based on the models developed. © 2014 SETAC.

Development of Rationale and Measures of Noncognitive College Student Potential

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmitt, Neal

2012-01-01

In considering and evaluating approaches to the admission of college students, the usual approach is to try to measure past academic achievement and primarily verbal and math ability on the assumption that these abilities will predict subsequent college academic grades and achievement. These measures do predict classroom achievement, though far…

Do somatic complaints predict subsequent symptoms of depression?

PubMed

Terre, Lisa; Poston, Walker S Carlos; Foreyt, John; St Jeor, Sachiko T

2003-01-01

Evidence suggests substantial comorbidity between symptoms of somatization and depression in clinical as well as nonclinical populations. However, as most existing research has been retrospective or cross-sectional in design, very little is known about the specific nature of this relationship. In particular, it is unclear whether somatic complaints may heighten the risk for the subsequent development of depressive symptoms. We report findings on the link between symptoms of somatization (assessed using the SCL-90-R) and depression 5 years later (assessed using the CES-D) in an initially healthy cohort of community adults, based on prospective data from the RENO Diet-Heart Study. Gender-stratified multiple regression analyses revealed that baseline CES-D scores were the best predictors of subsequent depressive symptoms for men and women. Baseline scores on the SCL-90-R somatization subscale significantly predicted subsequent self-reported symptoms of depressed mood 5 years later, but only in women. However, somatic complaints were a somewhat less powerful predictor than income and age. Our findings suggest that somatic complaints may represent one, but not necessarily the most important, risk factor for the subsequent development of depressive symptoms in women in nonclinical populations. The results also highlight the importance of including social variables in studies on women's depression as well as conducting additional research to further examine predictors of depressive symptoms in men. Copyright 2003 S. Karger AG, Basel

Early gross motor skills predict the subsequent development of language in children with autism spectrum disorder

PubMed Central

Pickles, Andrew; Lord, Catherine

2015-01-01

Background: Motor milestones such as the onset of walking are important developmental markers, not only for later motor skills but also for more widespread social‐cognitive development. The aim of the current study was to test whether gross motor abilities, specifically the onset of walking, predicted the subsequent rate of language development in a large cohort of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Methods: We ran growth curve models for expressive and receptive language measured at 2, 3, 5 and 9 years in 209 autistic children. Measures of gross motor, visual reception and autism symptoms were collected at the 2 year visit. In Model 1, walking onset was included as a predictor of the slope of language development. Model 2 included a measure of non‐verbal IQ and autism symptom severity as covariates. The final model, Model 3, additionally covaried for gross motor ability. Results: In the first model, parent‐reported age of walking onset significantly predicted the subsequent rate of language development although the relationship became non‐significant when gross motor skill, non‐verbal ability and autism severity scores were included (Models 2 & 3). Gross motor score, however, did remain a significant predictor of both expressive and receptive language development. Conclusions: Taken together, the model results provide some evidence that early motor abilities in young children with ASD can have longitudinal cross‐domain influences, potentially contributing, in part, to the linguistic difficulties that characterise ASD. Autism Res 2016, 9: 993–1001. © 2015 The Authors Autism Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Autism Research PMID:26692550

Early gross motor skills predict the subsequent development of language in children with autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Bedford, Rachael; Pickles, Andrew; Lord, Catherine

2016-09-01

Motor milestones such as the onset of walking are important developmental markers, not only for later motor skills but also for more widespread social-cognitive development. The aim of the current study was to test whether gross motor abilities, specifically the onset of walking, predicted the subsequent rate of language development in a large cohort of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). We ran growth curve models for expressive and receptive language measured at 2, 3, 5 and 9 years in 209 autistic children. Measures of gross motor, visual reception and autism symptoms were collected at the 2 year visit. In Model 1, walking onset was included as a predictor of the slope of language development. Model 2 included a measure of non-verbal IQ and autism symptom severity as covariates. The final model, Model 3, additionally covaried for gross motor ability. In the first model, parent-reported age of walking onset significantly predicted the subsequent rate of language development although the relationship became non-significant when gross motor skill, non-verbal ability and autism severity scores were included (Models 2 & 3). Gross motor score, however, did remain a significant predictor of both expressive and receptive language development. Taken together, the model results provide some evidence that early motor abilities in young children with ASD can have longitudinal cross-domain influences, potentially contributing, in part, to the linguistic difficulties that characterise ASD. Autism Res 2016, 9: 993-1001. © 2015 The Authors Autism Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Autism Research. © 2015 The Authors Autism Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Autism Research.

Sexual Anxiety and Eroticism Predict the Development of Sexual Problems in Youth With a History of Sexual Abuse

PubMed Central

Simon, Valerie A.; Feiring, Candice

2017-01-01

Youth with confirmed histories of sexual abuse (N = 118) were followed longitudinally to examine associations between their initial sexual reactions to abuse and subsequent sexual functioning. Participants were interviewed at abuse discovery (ages 8 through 15) and again 1 and 6 years later. Eroticism and sexual anxiety emerged as distinct indices of abuse-specific sexual reactions and predicted subsequent sexual functioning. Eroticism was associated with indicators of heightened sexuality, including more sexual risk behavior and views of sexual intimacy focused on partners’ needs. Sexual anxiety was associated with indicators of diminished sexuality, including few sexual partners and avoidant views of sexual intimacy. Age at abuse discovery moderated some associations, suggesting that the timing of abuse-specific reactions affects trajectories of sexual development. Findings point to the need for a developmental approach to understanding how abuse-specific sexual reactions disrupt sexual development and the need for early interventions promoting healthy sexual development. PMID:18408212

Child maltreatment and children's developmental trajectories in early to middle childhood.

PubMed

Font, Sarah A; Berger, Lawrence M

2015-01-01

Associations between experiencing child maltreatment and adverse developmental outcomes are widely studied, yet conclusions regarding the extent to which effects are bidirectional, and whether they are likely causal, remain elusive. This study uses the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a birth cohort of 4,898 children followed from birth through age 9. Hierarchical linear modeling and structural equation modeling are employed to estimate associations of maltreatment with cognitive and social-emotional well-being. Results suggest that effects of early childhood maltreatment emerge immediately, though developmental outcomes are also affected by newly occurring maltreatment over time. Additionally, findings indicate that children's early developmental scores predict their subsequent probability of experiencing maltreatment, though to a lesser extent than early maltreatment predicts subsequent developmental outcomes. © 2014 The Authors. Child Development © 2014 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Does specific psychopathology predict development of psychosis in ultra high-risk (UHR) patients?

PubMed

Thompson, Andrew; Nelson, Barnaby; Bruxner, Annie; O'Connor, Karen; Mossaheb, Nilufar; Simmons, Magenta B; Yung, Alison

2013-04-01

Studies have attempted to identify additional risk factors within the group identified as 'ultra high risk' (UHR) for developing psychotic disorders in order to characterise those at highest risk. However, these studies have often neglected clinical symptom types as additional risk factors. We aimed to investigate the relationship between baseline clinical psychotic or psychotic-like symptoms and the subsequent transition to a psychotic disorder in a UHR sample. A retrospective 'case-control' methodology was used. We identified all individuals from a UHR clinic who had subsequently developed a psychotic disorder (cases) and compared these to a random sample of individuals from the clinic who did not become psychotic within the sampling time frame (controls). The sample consisted of 120 patients (60 cases, 60 controls). An audit tool was used to identify clinical symptoms reported at entry to the clinic (baseline) using the clinical file. Diagnosis at transition was assessed using the Operational Criteria for Psychotic Illness (OPCRIT) computer program. The relationship between transition to a psychotic disorder and baseline symptoms was explored using survival analysis. Presence of thought disorder, any delusions and elevated mood significantly predicted transition to a psychotic disorder. When other symptoms were adjusted for, only the presence of elevated mood significantly predicted subsequent transition (hazard ratio 2.69, p = 0.002). Thought disorder was a predictor of transition to a schizophrenia-like psychotic disorder (hazard ratio 3.69, p = 0.008). Few individual clinical symptoms appear to be predictive of transition to a psychotic disorder in the UHR group. Clinicians should be cautious about the use of clinical profile alone in such individuals when determining who is at highest risk.

Navigating Change and Transformation in Collection Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kleszynski, Margaret A.

2012-01-01

For nearly two decades, librarians have been noting and writing about transformational change in collection development and subsequently predicting future directions for libraries in terms of building digital collections. This paradigm shift caused by the incorporation of more and more electronic resources into existing library collections and…

Progressive failure methodologies for predicting residual strength and life of laminated composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Charles E.; Allen, David H.; Obrien, T. Kevin

1991-01-01

Two progressive failure methodologies currently under development by the Mechanics of Materials Branch at NASA Langley Research Center are discussed. The damage tolerance/fail safety methodology developed by O'Brien is an engineering approach to ensuring adequate durability and damage tolerance by treating only delamination onset and the subsequent delamination accumulation through the laminate thickness. The continuum damage model developed by Allen and Harris employs continuum damage laws to predict laminate strength and life. The philosophy, mechanics framework, and current implementation status of each methodology are presented.

18F-FDG PET/CT Can Predict Development of Thyroiditis due to Immunotherapy for Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Eshghi, Naghmehossadat; Garland, Linda; Nia, Emily Saghar; Betancourt, Robert; Krupinski, Elizabeth; Kuo, Phillip H

2018-03-29

Objective: For patients undergoing immunotherapy with nivolumab for lung cancer, determine if increased 18 F-FDG uptake in the thyroid gland predicts development of thyroiditis with subsequent hypothyroidism. Secondarily, determine if 18 F-FDG uptake in the thyroid gland correlates with administered cycles of nivolumab. Materials and Methods: Retrospective chart review over 2 years found 18 lung cancer patients treated with nivolumab and with 18 F-FDG PET/CT scans pre- and during therapy. Standardized uptake value (SUV) mean and maximum and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) of the thyroid gland were measured. SUVs were also measured for the pituitary gland, liver and spleen. Patients obtained monthly thyroid testing. PET/CT parameters were analyzed by unpaired t-test for differences between two groups (patients who developed hypothyroidism and those who did not). Correlation between development of thyroiditis and number of cycles of nivolumab received was also tested. Results: Six of eighteen patients developed hypothyroidism. T-test comparing the two groups (patients who developed hypothyroidism and those who did not) demonstrated significant differences in SUVmean ( P = 0.04), SUV max ( P = 0.04) and TLG ( P = 0.02) of the thyroid gland. Two of four patients who developed thyroiditis and had increased 18 F-FDG uptake in the thyroid gland, had normal TSH at time of follow-up 18 F-FDG PET/CT. Patients who developed thyroiditis with subsequent hypothyroidism stayed longer on therapy (10.6 cycles) compared to patients without thyroiditis (7.6 cycles), but the trend was not statistically significant. No significant difference in PET/CT parameters was observed for pituitary gland, liver or spleen. Conclusion: 18 F-FDG PET/CT can predict the development of thyroiditis with subsequent hypothyroidism before laboratory testing. Further study is required to confirm the positive trend between thyroiditis and duration of therapy. Copyright © 2018 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Inc.

The Acquired Preparedness Model of Risk for Bulimic Symptom Development

PubMed Central

Combs, Jessica L.; Smith, Gregory T.; Flory, Kate; Simmons, Jean R.; Hill, Kelly K.

2010-01-01

The authors applied person-environment transaction theory to test the acquired preparedness model of eating disorder risk. The model holds that (a) middle school girls high in the trait of ineffectiveness are differentially prepared to acquire high risk expectancies for reinforcement from dieting/thinness; (b) those expectancies predict subsequent binge eating and purging; and (c) the influence of the disposition of ineffectiveness on binge eating and purging is mediated by dieting/thinness expectancies. In a three-wave longitudinal study of 394 middle school girls, they found support for the model. Seventh grade girls’ scores on ineffectiveness predicted their subsequent endorsement of high risk dieting/thinness expectancies, which in turn predicted subsequent increases in binge eating and purging. Statistical tests of mediation supported the hypothesis that the prospective relation between ineffectiveness and binge eating was mediated by dieting/thinness expectancies, as was the prospective relation between ineffectiveness and purging. This application of a basic science theory to eating disorder risk appears fruitful, and the findings suggest the importance of early interventions that address both disposition and learning. PMID:20853933

Intergenerational Transmission of Aggression in Romantic Relationships: The Moderating Role of Attachment Security

PubMed Central

Hare, Amanda L.; Miga, Erin M.; Allen, Joseph P.

2010-01-01

This prospective study used longitudinal, multi-reporter data to examine the influence of parents’ marital relationship functioning on subsequent adolescent romantic relationships. Consistent with Bryant and Conger’s model for the development of early adult romantic relationships (DEARR; 2002), we found that interactional styles, more specifically paternal aggression and satisfaction, exhibited in parents’ marital relationship when their adolescents were age 13, were predictive of qualities of the adolescent’s romantic relationships five years later. Continuities were domain specific: paternal satisfaction predicted adolescent satisfaction and paternal aggression predicted adolescent aggression. Attachment security moderated the link between paternal aggression and subsequent adolescent aggression, with continuities between negative conflictual styles across relationships reduced for secure adolescents. Results are interpreted as suggesting that attachment may help attenuated the transmission of destructive conflict strategies across generations. PMID:20001139

Prefrontal-hippocampal-fusiform activity during encoding predicts intraindividual differences in free recall ability: an event-related functional-anatomic MRI study.

PubMed

Dickerson, B C; Miller, S L; Greve, D N; Dale, A M; Albert, M S; Schacter, D L; Sperling, R A

2007-01-01

The ability to spontaneously recall recently learned information is a fundamental mnemonic activity of daily life, but has received little study using functional neuroimaging. We developed a functional MRI (fMRI) paradigm to study regional brain activity during encoding that predicts free recall. In this event-related fMRI study, ten lists of fourteen pictures of common objects were shown to healthy young individuals and regional brain activity during encoding was analyzed based on subsequent free recall performance. Free recall of items was predicted by activity during encoding in hippocampal, fusiform, and inferior prefrontal cortical regions. Within-subject variance in free recall performance for the ten lists was predicted by a linear combination of condition-specific inferior prefrontal, hippocampal, and fusiform activity. Recall performance was better for lists in which prefrontal activity was greater for all items of the list and hippocampal and fusiform activity were greater specifically for items that were recalled from the list. Thus, the activity of medial temporal, fusiform, and prefrontal brain regions during the learning of new information is important for the subsequent free recall of this information. These fronto-temporal brain regions act together as a large-scale memory-related network, the components of which make distinct yet interacting contributions during encoding that predict subsequent successful free recall performance.

Prefrontal-Hippocampal-Fusiform Activity During Encoding Predicts Intraindividual Differences in Free Recall Ability: An Event-Related Functional-Anatomic MRI Study

PubMed Central

Dickerson, B.C.; Miller, S.L.; Greve, D.N.; Dale, A.M.; Albert, M.S.; Schacter, D.L.; Sperling, R.A.

2009-01-01

The ability to spontaneously recall recently learned information is a fundamental mnemonic activity of daily life, but has received little study using functional neuroimaging. We developed a functional MRI (fMRI) paradigm to study regional brain activity during encoding that predicts free recall. In this event-related fMRI study, ten lists of fourteen pictures of common objects were shown to healthy young individuals and regional brain activity during encoding was analyzed based on subsequent free recall performance. Free recall of items was predicted by activity during encoding in hippocampal, fusiform, and inferior prefrontal cortical regions. Within-subject variance in free recall performance for the ten lists was predicted by a linear combination of condition-specific inferior prefrontal, hippocampal, and fusiform activity. Recall performance was better for lists in which pre-frontal activity was greater for all items of the list and hippocampal and fusi-form activity were greater specifically for items that were recalled from the list. Thus, the activity of medial temporal, fusiform, and prefrontal brain regions during the learning of new information is important for the subsequent free recall of this information. These fronto-temporal brain regions act together as a large-scale memory-related network, the components of which make distinct yet interacting contributions during encoding that predict subsequent successful free recall performance. PMID:17604356

Prediction of recovery of motor function after stroke.

PubMed

Stinear, Cathy

2010-12-01

Stroke is a leading cause of disability. The ability to live independently after stroke depends largely on the reduction of motor impairment and the recovery of motor function. Accurate prediction of motor recovery assists rehabilitation planning and supports realistic goal setting by clinicians and patients. Initial impairment is negatively related to degree of recovery, but inter-individual variability makes accurate prediction difficult. Neuroimaging and neurophysiological assessments can be used to measure the extent of stroke damage to the motor system and predict subsequent recovery of function, but these techniques are not yet used routinely. The use of motor impairment scores and neuroimaging has been refined by two recent studies in which these investigations were used at multiple time points early after stroke. Voluntary finger extension and shoulder abduction within 5 days of stroke predicted subsequent recovery of upper-limb function. Diffusion-weighted imaging within 7 days detected the effects of stroke on caudal motor pathways and was predictive of lasting motor impairment. Thus, investigations done soon after stroke had good prognostic value. The potential prognostic value of cortical activation and neural plasticity has been explored for the first time by two recent studies. Functional MRI detected a pattern of cortical activation at the acute stage that was related to subsequent reduction in motor impairment. Transcranial magnetic stimulation enabled measurement of neural plasticity in the primary motor cortex, which was related to subsequent disability. These studies open interesting new lines of enquiry. WHERE NEXT?: The accuracy of prediction might be increased by taking into account the motor system's capacity for functional reorganisation in response to therapy, in addition to the extent of stroke-related damage. Improved prognostic accuracy could also be gained by combining simple tests of motor impairment with neuroimaging, genotyping, and neurophysiological assessment of neural plasticity. The development of algorithms to guide the sequential combinations of these assessments could also further increase accuracy, in addition to improving rehabilitation planning and outcomes. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using patient self-reports to study heterogeneity of treatment effects in major depressive disorder

PubMed Central

Kessler, R.C.; van Loo, H.M.; Wardenaar, K.J.; Bossarte, R.M.; Brenner, L.A.; Ebert, D.D; de Jonge, P.; Nierenberg, A.A.; Rosellini, A.J.; Sampson, N.A.; Schoevers, R.A.; Wilcox, M.A.; Zaslavsky, A.M.

2016-01-01

Aims Clinicians need guidance to address the heterogeneity of treatment responses of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). While prediction schemes based on symptom clustering and biomarkers have so far not yielded results of sufficient strength to inform clinical decision-making, prediction schemes based on big data predictive analytic models might be more practically useful. Methods We review evidence suggesting that prediction equations based on symptoms and other easily-assessed clinical features found in previous research to predict MDD treatment outcomes might provide a foundation for developing predictive analytic clinical decision support models that could help clinicians select optimal (personalized) MDD treatments. These methods could also be useful in targeting patient subsamples for more expensive biomarker assessments. Results Approximately two dozen baseline variables obtained from medical records or patient reports have been found repeatedly in MDD treatment trials to predict overall treatment outcomes (i.e., intervention versus control) or differential treatment outcomes (i.e., intervention A versus intervention B). Similar evidence has been found in observational studies of MDD persistence-severity. However, no treatment studies have yet attempted to develop treatment outcome equations using the full set of these predictors. Promising preliminary empirical results coupled with recent developments in statistical methodology suggest that models could be developed to provide useful clinical decision support in personalized treatment selection. These tools could also provide a strong foundation to increase statistical power in focused studies of biomarkers and MDD heterogeneity of treatment response in subsequent controlled trials. Conclusions Coordinated efforts are needed to develop a protocol for systematically collecting information about established predictors of heterogeneity of MDD treatment response in large observational treatment studies, applying and refining these models in subsequent pragmatic trials, carrying out pooled secondary analyses to extract the maximum amount of information from these coordinated studies, and using this information to focus future discovery efforts in the segment of the patient population in which continued uncertainty about treatment response exists. PMID:26810628

Using patient self-reports to study heterogeneity of treatment effects in major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Kessler, R C; van Loo, H M; Wardenaar, K J; Bossarte, R M; Brenner, L A; Ebert, D D; de Jonge, P; Nierenberg, A A; Rosellini, A J; Sampson, N A; Schoevers, R A; Wilcox, M A; Zaslavsky, A M

2017-02-01

Clinicians need guidance to address the heterogeneity of treatment responses of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). While prediction schemes based on symptom clustering and biomarkers have so far not yielded results of sufficient strength to inform clinical decision-making, prediction schemes based on big data predictive analytic models might be more practically useful. We review evidence suggesting that prediction equations based on symptoms and other easily-assessed clinical features found in previous research to predict MDD treatment outcomes might provide a foundation for developing predictive analytic clinical decision support models that could help clinicians select optimal (personalised) MDD treatments. These methods could also be useful in targeting patient subsamples for more expensive biomarker assessments. Approximately two dozen baseline variables obtained from medical records or patient reports have been found repeatedly in MDD treatment trials to predict overall treatment outcomes (i.e., intervention v. control) or differential treatment outcomes (i.e., intervention A v. intervention B). Similar evidence has been found in observational studies of MDD persistence-severity. However, no treatment studies have yet attempted to develop treatment outcome equations using the full set of these predictors. Promising preliminary empirical results coupled with recent developments in statistical methodology suggest that models could be developed to provide useful clinical decision support in personalised treatment selection. These tools could also provide a strong foundation to increase statistical power in focused studies of biomarkers and MDD heterogeneity of treatment response in subsequent controlled trials. Coordinated efforts are needed to develop a protocol for systematically collecting information about established predictors of heterogeneity of MDD treatment response in large observational treatment studies, applying and refining these models in subsequent pragmatic trials, carrying out pooled secondary analyses to extract the maximum amount of information from these coordinated studies, and using this information to focus future discovery efforts in the segment of the patient population in which continued uncertainty about treatment response exists.

Carboxyhemoglobin Formation in Preterm Infants Is Related to the Subsequent Development of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia

PubMed Central

Tokuriki, Shuko; Okuno, Takashi; Ohta, Genrei

2015-01-01

Objective. To evaluate the usefulness of carboxyhemoglobin (CO-Hb) levels as a biomarker to predict the development and severity of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). Methods. Twenty-five infants born at <33 wk of gestational age or with a birth weight of <1,500 g were enrolled. CO-Hb levels were measured between postnatal days 5 and 8, 12 and 15, 19 and 22, and 26 and 29. Urinary levels of 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), advanced oxidation protein products, and Nε-(hexanoyl) lysine were measured between postnatal days 5 and 8 and 26 and 29. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to compare the biomarkers' predictive values. Results. Compared with infants in the no-or-mild BPD group, infants with moderate-to-severe BPD exhibited higher CO-Hb levels during the early postnatal period and higher 8-OHdG levels between postnatal days 5 and 8. Using ROC analysis to predict the development of moderate-to-severe BPD, the area under the curve (AUC) for CO-Hb levels between postnatal days 5 and 8 was higher than AUCs for the urinary markers. Conclusions. CO-Hb levels during the early postnatal period may serve as a practical marker for evaluating oxidative stress and the severity of subsequently developing BPD. PMID:26294808

Carboxyhemoglobin Formation in Preterm Infants Is Related to the Subsequent Development of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia.

PubMed

Tokuriki, Shuko; Okuno, Takashi; Ohta, Genrei; Ohshima, Yusei

2015-01-01

To evaluate the usefulness of carboxyhemoglobin (CO-Hb) levels as a biomarker to predict the development and severity of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). Twenty-five infants born at <33 wk of gestational age or with a birth weight of <1,500 g were enrolled. CO-Hb levels were measured between postnatal days 5 and 8, 12 and 15, 19 and 22, and 26 and 29. Urinary levels of 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), advanced oxidation protein products, and Nε-(hexanoyl) lysine were measured between postnatal days 5 and 8 and 26 and 29. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to compare the biomarkers' predictive values. Compared with infants in the no-or-mild BPD group, infants with moderate-to-severe BPD exhibited higher CO-Hb levels during the early postnatal period and higher 8-OHdG levels between postnatal days 5 and 8. Using ROC analysis to predict the development of moderate-to-severe BPD, the area under the curve (AUC) for CO-Hb levels between postnatal days 5 and 8 was higher than AUCs for the urinary markers. CO-Hb levels during the early postnatal period may serve as a practical marker for evaluating oxidative stress and the severity of subsequently developing BPD.

Can parents' concerns predict autism spectrum disorder? A prospective study of high-risk siblings from 6 to 36 months of age.

PubMed

Sacrey, Lori-Ann R; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie; Bryson, Susan; Brian, Jessica; Smith, Isabel M; Roberts, Wendy; Szatmari, Peter; Roncadin, Caroline; Garon, Nancy; Novak, Christopher; Vaillancourt, Tracy; McCormick, Theresa; MacKinnon, Bonnie; Jilderda, Sanne; Armstrong, Vickie

2015-06-01

This prospective study characterized parents' concerns about infants at high risk for developing autism spectrum disorder (ASD; each with an older sibling with ASD) at multiple time points in the first 2 years, and assessed their relation to diagnostic outcome at 3 years. Parents of low-risk controls (LR) and high-risk infant siblings (HR) reported any concerns that they had regarding their children's development between 6 and 24 months of age regarding sleep, diet, sensory behavior, gross/fine motor skills, repetitive movements, communication, communication regression, social skills, play, and behavioral problems, using a parent concern form designed for this study. At 3 years of age, an independent, gold-standard diagnostic assessment for ASD was conducted for all participants. As predicted, parents of HR children who received an ASD diagnosis reported more concerns than parents of LR and HR children who did not have ASD. The total number of concerns predicted a subsequent diagnosis of ASD as early as 12 months within the HR group. Concerns regarding sensory behavior and motor development predicted a subsequent diagnosis of ASD as early as 6 months, whereas concerns about social communication and repetitive behaviors did not predict diagnosis of ASD until after 12 months. Parent-reported concerns can improve earlier recognition of ASD in HR children. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Externalizing problems in childhood and adolescence predict subsequent educational achievement but for different genetic and environmental reasons.

PubMed

Lewis, Gary J; Asbury, Kathryn; Plomin, Robert

2017-03-01

Childhood behavior problems predict subsequent educational achievement; however, little research has examined the etiology of these links using a longitudinal twin design. Moreover, it is unknown whether genetic and environmental innovations provide incremental prediction for educational achievement from childhood to adolescence. We examined genetic and environmental influences on parental ratings of behavior problems across childhood (age 4) and adolescence (ages 12 and 16) as predictors of educational achievement at age 16 using a longitudinal classical twin design. Shared-environmental influences on anxiety, conduct problems, and peer problems at age 4 predicted educational achievement at age 16. Genetic influences on the externalizing behaviors of conduct problems and hyperactivity at age 4 predicted educational achievement at age 16. Moreover, novel genetic and (to a lesser extent) nonshared-environmental influences acting on conduct problems and hyperactivity emerged at ages 12 and 16, adding to the genetic prediction from age 4. These findings demonstrate that genetic and shared-environmental factors underpinning behavior problems in early childhood predict educational achievement in midadolescence. These findings are consistent with the notion that early-childhood behavior problems reflect the initiation of a life-course persistent trajectory with concomitant implications for social attainment. However, we also find evidence that genetic and nonshared-environment innovations acting on behavior problems have implications for subsequent educational achievement, consistent with recent work arguing that adolescence represents a sensitive period for socioaffective development. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Benign Breast Disease: Toward Molecular Prediction of Breast Cancer Risk

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

of benign histology in predicting risk of future breast cancer, examining in detail the role of proliferative disease, atypia , papillomas, radial...who had proliferative disease with atypia , especially those of younger age. • We identified a marked increased risk of breast cancer in women with...imparts an increased risk of developing a subsequent carcinoma similar to other forms of proliferative breast disease without atypia . Atypical

Inventory-based sensitivity analysis of the Large Tree Diameter Growth Submodel of the Southern Variant of the FVS

Treesearch

Giorgio Vacchiano; John D. Shaw; R. Justin DeRose; James N. Long

2008-01-01

Diameter increment is an important variable in modeling tree growth. Most facets of predicted tree development are dependent in part on diameter or diameter increment, the most commonly measured stand variable. The behavior of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) largely relies on the performance of the diameter increment model and the subsequent use of predicted dbh...

Predicting prolonged intensive care unit length of stay in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery--development of an entirely preoperative scorecard.

PubMed

Herman, Christine; Karolak, Wojtek; Yip, Alexandra M; Buth, Karen J; Hassan, Ansar; Légaré, Jean-Francois

2009-10-01

We sought to develop a predictive model based exclusively on preoperative factors to identify patients at risk for PrlICULOS following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Retrospective analysis was performed on patients undergoing isolated CABG at a single center between June 1998 and December 2002. PrlICULOS was defined as initial admission to ICU exceeding 72 h. A parsimonious risk-predictive model was constructed on the basis of preoperative factors, with subsequent internal validation. Of 3483 patients undergoing isolated CABG between June 1998 and December 2002, 411 (11.8%) experienced PrlICULOS. Overall in-hospital mortality was higher among these patients (14.4% vs. 1.2%, P

Predictable and predictive emotions: explaining cheap signals and trust re-extension

PubMed Central

Schniter, Eric; Sheremeta, Roman M.

2014-01-01

Despite normative predictions from economics and biology, unrelated strangers will often develop the trust necessary to reap gains from one-shot economic exchange opportunities. This appears to be especially true when declared intentions and emotions can be cheaply communicated. Perhaps even more puzzling to economists and biologists is the observation that anonymous and unrelated individuals, known to have breached trust, often make effective use of cheap signals, such as promises and apologies, to encourage trust re-extension. We used a pair of trust games with one-way communication and an emotion survey to investigate the role of emotions in regulating the propensity to message, apologize, re-extend trust, and demonstrate trustworthiness. This design allowed us to observe the endogenous emergence and natural distribution of trust-relevant behaviors, remedial strategies used by promise-breakers, their effects on behavior, and subsequent outcomes. We found that emotions triggered by interaction outcomes are predictable and also predict subsequent apology and trust re-extension. The role of emotions in behavioral regulation helps explain why messages are produced, when they can be trusted, and when trust will be re-extended. PMID:25477797

Predictable and predictive emotions: explaining cheap signals and trust re-extension.

PubMed

Schniter, Eric; Sheremeta, Roman M

2014-01-01

Despite normative predictions from economics and biology, unrelated strangers will often develop the trust necessary to reap gains from one-shot economic exchange opportunities. This appears to be especially true when declared intentions and emotions can be cheaply communicated. Perhaps even more puzzling to economists and biologists is the observation that anonymous and unrelated individuals, known to have breached trust, often make effective use of cheap signals, such as promises and apologies, to encourage trust re-extension. We used a pair of trust games with one-way communication and an emotion survey to investigate the role of emotions in regulating the propensity to message, apologize, re-extend trust, and demonstrate trustworthiness. This design allowed us to observe the endogenous emergence and natural distribution of trust-relevant behaviors, remedial strategies used by promise-breakers, their effects on behavior, and subsequent outcomes. We found that emotions triggered by interaction outcomes are predictable and also predict subsequent apology and trust re-extension. The role of emotions in behavioral regulation helps explain why messages are produced, when they can be trusted, and when trust will be re-extended.

The Behaviors of Parents of Children with Autism Predict the Subsequent Development of Their Children's Communication.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siller, Michael; Sigman, Marian

2002-01-01

Comparison of caregiver behaviors of children with either autism, developmental delay, or typical development found no difference between groups in caregiver synchronization with the child's focus of attention. Also, caregivers of children with autism who showed higher levels of synchronization during initial play interactions led to superior…

PREDICTING RETINOID RECEPTOR BINDING AFFINITY: COREPA-M APPLICATION

EPA Science Inventory

Retinoic acid and associated vitamin A derivatives comprise a class of endogenous hormones that activate different retinoic acid receptors RARs). Transcriptional events subsequent to this activation are key to controlling several aspects of vertebrate development. As such, identi...

Predictors of Gleason Score (GS) upgrading on subsequent prostatectomy: a single Institution study in a cohort of patients with GS 6

PubMed Central

Mehta, Vikas; Rycyna, Kevin; Baesens, Bart MM; Barkan, Güliz A; Paner, Gladell P; Flanigan, Robert C; Wojcik, Eva M; Venkataraman, Girish

2012-01-01

Background Biopsy Gleason score (bGS) remains an important prognostic indicator for adverse outcomes in Prostate Cancer (PCA). In the light of recent studies purporting difference in prognostic outcomes for the subgroups of GS7 group (primary Gleason pattern 4 vs. 3), upgrading of a bGS of 6 to a GS≥7 has serious implications. We sought to identify pre-operative factors associated with upgrading in a cohort of GS6 patients who underwent prostatectomy. Design We identified 281 cases of GS6 PCA on biopsy with subsequent prostatectomies. Using data on pre-operative variables (age, PSA, biopsy pathology parameters), logistic regression models (LRM) were developed to identify factors that could be used to predict upgrading to GS≥7 on subsequent prostatectomy. A decision tree (DT) was constructed. Results 92 of 281 cases (32.7%) were upgraded on subsequent prostatectomy. LRM identified a model with two variables with statistically significant ability to predict upgrading, including pre-biopsy PSA (Odds Ratio 8.66; 2.03-37.49, 95% CI) and highest percentage of cancer at any single biopsy site (Odds Ratio 1.03, 1.01-1.05, 95% CI). This two-parameter model yielded an area under curve of 0.67. The decision tree was constructed using only 3 leave nodes; with a test set classification accuracy of 70%. Conclusions A simplistic model using clinical and biopsy data is able to predict the likelihood of upgrading of GS with an acceptable level of certainty. External validation of these findings along with development of a nomogram will aid in better stratifying the cohort of low risk patients as based on the GS. PMID:22949931

Growth and Yield Predictions for Thinned and Unthinned Slash Pine Plantations on Cutover Sites in the West Gulf Region

Treesearch

Stanley J. Zarnoch; Donald P. Feduccia; V. Clark Baldwin; Tommy R. Dell

1991-01-01

A-growth and yield model has been developed for slash pine plantations on problem-free cutover sites in the west gulf region. The model was based on the moment-percentile method using the Weibull distribution for tree diameters. This technique was applied to untbinned and thinned stand projections and, subsequently, to the prediction of residual stands immediately...

Progress in Finite Element Modeling of the Lower Extremities

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

bending and subsequent injury , e.g., the distal tibia motion results in bending of the tibia rather than the tibia rotating about the knee joint...layers, rich anisotropy, and wide variability. Developing a model for predictive injury capability, therefore, needs to be versatile and flexible to... injury capability presents many challenges, the first of which is identifying the types of conditions where injury prediction is needed. Our focus

Variations in neutrophil count in preterm infants with respiratory distress syndrome who subsequently developed chronic lung disease.

PubMed

Kohelet, D; Arbel, E; Ballin, A; Goldberg, M

2000-01-01

Neutrophil counts were studied in 62 preterm infants receiving mechanical ventilation for neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (NRDS). Exploratory analysis indicated that the severity of NRDS, as demonstrated by fractional inspired oxygen (FiO2), mean airway pressure (MAP), arterial-alveolar PO2 ratio (a/APO2) and oxygenation index (OI), was correlated with percentage change of neutrophil counts during the first 5 days of life. Further analysis demonstrated that infants with NRDS who subsequently developed chronic lung disease (CLD) (n = 21) had statistically significant differences in variation of neutrophil counts when compared with the remainder (n = 41) without CLD (-35.0% +/- 4.3 vs. -16.9% +/- 5.8, p < 0.02). It is concluded that significant variations in neutrophil counts during the first 5 days of life may be found in infants with NRDS who subsequently develop CLD and that these changes may have predictive value regarding the development of CLD.

Serum biomarkers predictive of depressive episodes in panic disorder.

PubMed

Gottschalk, M G; Cooper, J D; Chan, M K; Bot, M; Penninx, B W J H; Bahn, S

2016-02-01

Panic disorder with or without comorbid agoraphobia (PD/PDA) has been linked to an increased risk to develop subsequent depressive episodes, yet the underlying pathophysiology of these disorders remains poorly understood. We aimed to identify a biomarker panel predictive for the development of a depressive disorder (major depressive disorder and/or dysthymia) within a 2-year-follow-up period. Blood serum concentrations of 165 analytes were evaluated in 120 PD/PDA patients without depressive disorder baseline diagnosis (6-month-recency) in the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA). We assessed the predictive performance of serum biomarkers, clinical, and self-report variables using receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC) and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). False-discovery-rate corrected logistic regression model selection of serum analytes and covariates identified an optimal predictive panel comprised of tetranectin and creatine kinase MB along with patient gender and scores from the Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology (IDS) rating scale. Combined, an AUC of 0.87 was reached for identifying the PD/PDA patients who developed a depressive disorder within 2 years (n = 44). The addition of biomarkers represented a significant (p = 0.010) improvement over using gender and IDS alone as predictors (AUC = 0.78). For the first time, we report on a combination of biological serum markers, clinical variables and self-report inventories that can detect PD/PDA patients at increased risk of developing subsequent depressive disorders with good predictive performance in a naturalistic cohort design. After an independent validation our proposed biomarkers could prove useful in the detection of at-risk PD/PDA patients, allowing for early therapeutic interventions and improving clinical outcome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pattern recognition and functional neuroimaging help to discriminate healthy adolescents at risk for mood disorders from low risk adolescents.

PubMed

Mourão-Miranda, Janaina; Oliveira, Leticia; Ladouceur, Cecile D; Marquand, Andre; Brammer, Michael; Birmaher, Boris; Axelson, David; Phillips, Mary L

2012-01-01

There are no known biological measures that accurately predict future development of psychiatric disorders in individual at-risk adolescents. We investigated whether machine learning and fMRI could help to: 1. differentiate healthy adolescents genetically at-risk for bipolar disorder and other Axis I psychiatric disorders from healthy adolescents at low risk of developing these disorders; 2. identify those healthy genetically at-risk adolescents who were most likely to develop future Axis I disorders. 16 healthy offspring genetically at risk for bipolar disorder and other Axis I disorders by virtue of having a parent with bipolar disorder and 16 healthy, age- and gender-matched low-risk offspring of healthy parents with no history of psychiatric disorders (12-17 year-olds) performed two emotional face gender-labeling tasks (happy/neutral; fearful/neutral) during fMRI. We used Gaussian Process Classifiers (GPC), a machine learning approach that assigns a predictive probability of group membership to an individual person, to differentiate groups and to identify those at-risk adolescents most likely to develop future Axis I disorders. Using GPC, activity to neutral faces presented during the happy experiment accurately and significantly differentiated groups, achieving 75% accuracy (sensitivity = 75%, specificity = 75%). Furthermore, predictive probabilities were significantly higher for those at-risk adolescents who subsequently developed an Axis I disorder than for those at-risk adolescents remaining healthy at follow-up. We show that a combination of two promising techniques, machine learning and neuroimaging, not only discriminates healthy low-risk from healthy adolescents genetically at-risk for Axis I disorders, but may ultimately help to predict which at-risk adolescents subsequently develop these disorders.

Testing a machine-learning algorithm to predict the persistence and severity of major depressive disorder from baseline self-reports.

PubMed

Kessler, R C; van Loo, H M; Wardenaar, K J; Bossarte, R M; Brenner, L A; Cai, T; Ebert, D D; Hwang, I; Li, J; de Jonge, P; Nierenberg, A A; Petukhova, M V; Rosellini, A J; Sampson, N A; Schoevers, R A; Wilcox, M A; Zaslavsky, A M

2016-10-01

Heterogeneity of major depressive disorder (MDD) illness course complicates clinical decision-making. Although efforts to use symptom profiles or biomarkers to develop clinically useful prognostic subtypes have had limited success, a recent report showed that machine-learning (ML) models developed from self-reports about incident episode characteristics and comorbidities among respondents with lifetime MDD in the World Health Organization World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys predicted MDD persistence, chronicity and severity with good accuracy. We report results of model validation in an independent prospective national household sample of 1056 respondents with lifetime MDD at baseline. The WMH ML models were applied to these baseline data to generate predicted outcome scores that were compared with observed scores assessed 10-12 years after baseline. ML model prediction accuracy was also compared with that of conventional logistic regression models. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve based on ML (0.63 for high chronicity and 0.71-0.76 for the other prospective outcomes) was consistently higher than for the logistic models (0.62-0.70) despite the latter models including more predictors. A total of 34.6-38.1% of respondents with subsequent high persistence chronicity and 40.8-55.8% with the severity indicators were in the top 20% of the baseline ML-predicted risk distribution, while only 0.9% of respondents with subsequent hospitalizations and 1.5% with suicide attempts were in the lowest 20% of the ML-predicted risk distribution. These results confirm that clinically useful MDD risk-stratification models can be generated from baseline patient self-reports and that ML methods improve on conventional methods in developing such models.

Testing a machine-learning algorithm to predict the persistence and severity of major depressive disorder from baseline self-reports

PubMed Central

Kessler, Ronald C.; van Loo, Hanna M.; Wardenaar, Klaas J.; Bossarte, Robert M.; Brenner, Lisa A.; Cai, Tianxi; Ebert, David Daniel; Hwang, Irving; Li, Junlong; de Jonge, Peter; Nierenberg, Andrew A.; Petukhova, Maria V.; Rosellini, Anthony J.; Sampson, Nancy A.; Schoevers, Robert A.; Wilcox, Marsha A.; Zaslavsky, Alan M.

2015-01-01

Heterogeneity of major depressive disorder (MDD) illness course complicates clinical decision-making. While efforts to use symptom profiles or biomarkers to develop clinically useful prognostic subtypes have had limited success, a recent report showed that machine learning (ML) models developed from self-reports about incident episode characteristics and comorbidities among respondents with lifetime MDD in the World Health Organization World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys predicted MDD persistence, chronicity, and severity with good accuracy. We report results of model validation in an independent prospective national household sample of 1,056 respondents with lifetime MDD at baseline. The WMH ML models were applied to these baseline data to generate predicted outcome scores that were compared to observed scores assessed 10–12 years after baseline. ML model prediction accuracy was also compared to that of conventional logistic regression models. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) based on ML (.63 for high chronicity and .71–.76 for the other prospective outcomes) was consistently higher than for the logistic models (.62–.70) despite the latter models including more predictors. 34.6–38.1% of respondents with subsequent high persistence-chronicity and 40.8–55.8% with the severity indicators were in the top 20% of the baseline ML predicted risk distribution, while only 0.9% of respondents with subsequent hospitalizations and 1.5% with suicide attempts were in the lowest 20% of the ML predicted risk distribution. These results confirm that clinically useful MDD risk stratification models can be generated from baseline patient self-reports and that ML methods improve on conventional methods in developing such models. PMID:26728563

Exploring the Effects of Low Power Schemas in Mothers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Rosemary S. L.

1999-01-01

Assessed whether low perceived maternal power and temperamentally fearful preschool-aged daughters predicted subsequent maternal overcontrol and internalizing symptoms in daughters 2 years later. Found that low perceived maternal power predicted subsequent maternal overcontrol with initially fearful daughters but did not predict subsequent…

Lung cancer risk prediction to select smokers for screening CT--a model based on the Italian COSMOS trial.

PubMed

Maisonneuve, Patrick; Bagnardi, Vincenzo; Bellomi, Massimo; Spaggiari, Lorenzo; Pelosi, Giuseppe; Rampinelli, Cristiano; Bertolotti, Raffaella; Rotmensz, Nicole; Field, John K; Decensi, Andrea; Veronesi, Giulia

2011-11-01

Screening with low-dose helical computed tomography (CT) has been shown to significantly reduce lung cancer mortality but the optimal target population and time interval to subsequent screening are yet to be defined. We developed two models to stratify individual smokers according to risk of developing lung cancer. We first used the number of lung cancers detected at baseline screening CT in the 5,203 asymptomatic participants of the COSMOS trial to recalibrate the Bach model, which we propose using to select smokers for screening. Next, we incorporated lung nodule characteristics and presence of emphysema identified at baseline CT into the Bach model and proposed the resulting multivariable model to predict lung cancer risk in screened smokers after baseline CT. Age and smoking exposure were the main determinants of lung cancer risk. The recalibrated Bach model accurately predicted lung cancers detected during the first year of screening. Presence of nonsolid nodules (RR = 10.1, 95% CI = 5.57-18.5), nodule size more than 8 mm (RR = 9.89, 95% CI = 5.84-16.8), and emphysema (RR = 2.36, 95% CI = 1.59-3.49) at baseline CT were all significant predictors of subsequent lung cancers. Incorporation of these variables into the Bach model increased the predictive value of the multivariable model (c-index = 0.759, internal validation). The recalibrated Bach model seems suitable for selecting the higher risk population for recruitment for large-scale CT screening. The Bach model incorporating CT findings at baseline screening could help defining the time interval to subsequent screening in individual participants. Further studies are necessary to validate these models.

Subsequent Vertebral Fractures Post Cement Augmentation of the Thoracolumbar Spine: Does it Correlate With Level-specific Bone Mineral Density Scores?

PubMed

Hey, Hwee Weng Dennis; Hwee Weng, Dennis Hey; Tan, Jun Hao; Jun, Hao Tan; Tan, Chuen Seng; Chuen, Seng Tan; Tan, Hsi Ming Bryan; Ming, Bryan Tan Hsi; Lau, Puang Huh Bernard; Huh, Bernard Lau Puang; Hee, Hwan Tak; Hwan, Tak Hee

2015-12-01

A case-control study. In this study, we investigated the correlation between level-specific preoperative bone mineral density and subsequent vertebral fractures. We also identified factors associated with subsequent vertebral fractures. Complications of cement augmentation of the spine include subsequent vertebral fractures, leading to unnecessary morbidity and more treatment. Ability to predict at-risk vertebra will help guide management. We studied all patients with osteoporotic compression fractures who underwent cement augmentation in a single institution from November 2001 to December 2010 by a single surgeon. Association between level-specific bone mineral density T-scores and subsequent fractures was assessed. Multivariable analysis was performed to identify significant factors associated with subsequent vertebral fractures. 93 patients followed up for a mean duration of 25.1 months (12-96) had a mean age of 76.8 years (47-99). Vertebroplasty was performed in 58 patients (62.4%) on 68 levels and kyphoplasty in 35 patients (37.6%) on 44 levels. Refracture was seen in 16 patients (17.2%). The time to subsequent fracture post cement augmentation was 20.5 months (2-90). For refracture cases, 43.8% (7/16) fractured in the adjacent vertebrae. Subsequently fractured vertebra had a mean T-score of -2.860 (95% confidence interval -3.268 to -2.452) and nonfractured vertebra had a mean T-score of -2.180 (95% confidence interval -2.373 to -1.986). A T-score of -2.2 or lower is predictive of refracture at that vertebra (P = 0.047). Odds ratio increases with decreasing T-scores from -2.2 or lower to -2.6 or lower. A T-score of -2.6 or lower gives no additional predictive advantage. After multivariable analysis, age (P = 0.049) and loss of preoperative anterior vertebral height (P = 0.017) are associated with refracture. Level-specific T-scores are predictive of subsequent fractures and the odds ratio increases with lower T-scores from -2.2 or less to -2.6 or less. They have a low positive predictive value, but a high negative predictive value for subsequent fractures. Other significant associations with subsequent refractures include age and anterior vertebral height. 4.

Childhood and/or Adolescent Sexual Experiences: Predicting Variability in Subsequent Adjustment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seidner, Andrea L.; And Others

There is considerable debate regarding the effects of childhood sexual abuse on an individual's subsequent adjustment. To determine which variables are most useful in predicting subsequent adjustment of individuals who were involved in sexual experiences as children or adolescents, 59 female and 17 male undergraduates who reported having had a…

DNA sequencing and predictions of the cosmic theory of life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickramasinghe, N. Chandra

2013-01-01

The theory of cometary panspermia, developed by the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present author argues that life originated cosmically as a unique event in one of a great multitude of comets or planetary bodies in the Universe. Life on Earth did not originate here but was introduced by impacting comets, and its further evolution was driven by the subsequent acquisition of cosmically derived genes. Explicit predictions of this theory published in 1979-1981, stating how the acquisition of new genes drives evolution, are compared with recent developments in relation to horizontal gene transfer, and the role of retroviruses in evolution. Precisely-stated predictions of the theory of cometary panspermia are shown to have been verified.

DNA Sequencing and Predictions of the Cosmic Theory of Life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickramasinghe, N. Chandra

The theory of cometary panspermia, developed by the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present author argues that life originated cosmically as a unique event in one of a great multitude of comets or planetary bodies in the Universe. Life on Earth did not originate here but was introduced by impacting comets, and its further evolution was driven by the subsequent acquisition of cosmically derived genes. Explicit predictions of this theory published in 1979-1981, stating how the acquisition of new genes drives evolution, are compared with recent developments in relation to horizontal gene transfer, and the role of retroviruses in evolution. Precisely-stated predictions of the theory of cometary panspermia are shown to have been verified.

Diagnostic usefulness of dynamic changes of CMV-specific T-cell responses in predicting CMV infections in HCT recipients.

PubMed

Jung, Jiwon; Lee, Hyun-Jung; Kim, Sun-Mi; Kang, Young-Ah; Lee, Young-Shin; Chong, Yong Pil; Sung, Heungsup; Lee, Sang-Oh; Choi, Sang-Ho; Kim, Yang Soo; Woo, Jun Hee; Lee, Jung-Hee; Lee, Je-Hwan; Lee, Kyoo-Hyung; Kim, Sung-Han

2017-02-01

CMV-specific cell mediated immune responses before and after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT) can categorize patients as at high or low risk of CMV development. We evaluated the usefulness of the CMV-specific T-cell ELISPOT assay for predicting the development of CMV infections after HCT in recipients with donor-positive and recipient-positive CMV serology (D+/R+ ). CMV pp65 and IE1-specific ELISPOT assays were performed before HCT (D0), and at 30 (D30) and 90 (D90) days after HCT. Of the 84 HCT recipients with D+/R+, 42 (50%) developed≥1 episode of CMV infection. Thirty-nine (64%) of 61 patients with Δ(D30-D0) pp65<42 developed CMV infections compared with 3 (14%) of 21 patients with Δ(D30-D0) pp65≥42 (P<0.001). Twenty-three (74%) of 31 patients with Δ(D30-D0) IE1<-4 developed CMV infections compared with 19 (37%) of 51 patients with Δ(D30-D0) IE1≥-4 (P=0.001). pp65 Δ(D30-D0) ≥42 had 93% sensitivity for ruling out subsequent CMV infection, and pp65 Δ(D30-D0)<42 followed by Δ(D30-D0) IE1<-4 had 100% specificity for ruling in the subsequent CMV infection. In addition, 10 (53%) of 19 patients with Δ(D90-D30) pp65<23 had relapsing CMV infections, compared with 3 (15%) of 20 patients with Δ(D90-D30) pp65≥23 (P=0.02). The sensitivity and specificity of Δ(D90-D30) pp65 were 77% (95% CI 50-92) and 65% (95% CI, 46-81). Dynamic change in the CMV-specific ELISPOT assay before versus after HCT appears to predict the subsequent development of CMV infection and relapsing CMV infection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

MEDEX 2015: Heart Rate Variability Predicts Development of Acute Mountain Sickness.

PubMed

Sutherland, Angus; Freer, Joseph; Evans, Laura; Dolci, Alberto; Crotti, Matteo; Macdonald, Jamie Hugo

2017-09-01

Sutherland, Angus, Joseph Freer, Laura Evans, Alberto Dolci, Matteo Crotti, and Jamie Hugo Macdonald. MEDEX 2015: Heart rate variability predicts development of acute mountain sickness. High Alt Med Biol. 18: 199-208, 2017. Acute mountain sickness (AMS) develops when the body fails to acclimatize to atmospheric changes at altitude. Preascent prediction of susceptibility to AMS would be a useful tool to prevent subsequent harm. Changes to peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO 2 ) on hypoxic exposure have previously been shown to be of poor predictive value. Heart rate variability (HRV) has shown promise in the early prediction of AMS, but its use pre-expedition has not previously been investigated. We aimed to determine whether pre- and intraexpedition HRV assessment could predict susceptibility to AMS at high altitude with better diagnostic accuracy than SpO 2 . Forty-four healthy volunteers undertook an expedition in the Nepali Himalaya to >5000 m. SpO 2 and HRV parameters were recorded at rest in normoxia and in a normobaric hypoxic chamber before the expedition. On the expedition HRV parameters and SpO 2 were collected again at 3841 m. A daily Lake Louise Score was obtained to assess AMS symptomology. Low frequency/high frequency (LF/HF) ratio in normoxia (cutpoint ≤2.28 a.u.) and LF following 15 minutes of exposure to normobaric hypoxia had moderate (area under the curve ≥0.8) diagnostic accuracy. LF/HF ratio in normoxia had the highest sensitivity (85%) and specificity (88%) for predicting AMS on subsequent ascent to altitude. In contrast, pre-expedition SpO 2 measurements had poor (area under the curve <0.7) diagnostic accuracy and inferior sensitivity and specificity. Pre-ascent measurement of HRV in normoxia was found to be of better diagnostic accuracy for AMS prediction than all measures of HRV in hypoxia, and better than peripheral oxygen saturation monitoring.

Development and Evaluation of Season-ahead Precipitation and Streamflow Predictions for Sectoral Management in Western Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Block, P. J.; Alexander, S.; WU, S.

2017-12-01

Skillful season-ahead predictions conditioned on local and large-scale hydro-climate variables can provide valuable knowledge to farmers and reservoir operators, enabling informed water resource allocation and management decisions. In Ethiopia, the potential for advancing agriculture and hydropower management, and subsequently economic growth, is substantial, yet evidence suggests a weak adoption of prediction information by sectoral audiences. To address common critiques, including skill, scale, and uncertainty, probabilistic forecasts are developed at various scales - temporally and spatially - for the Finchaa hydropower dam and the Koga agricultural scheme in an attempt to promote uptake and application. Significant prediction skill is evident across scales, particularly for statistical models. This raises questions regarding other potential barriers to forecast utilization at community scales, which are also addressed.

Student–Teacher Relationship Stability Across Early School Years for Children With Intellectual Disability or Typical Development

PubMed Central

Blacher, Jan; Baker, Bruce L.; Eisenhower, Abbey S.

2009-01-01

Student–teacher relationships of 37 children with moderate to borderline intellectual disability and 61 with typical cognitive development were assessed from child ages 6–8 years. Student–teacher relationship quality was moderately stable for the typical development group, but less so for the intellectual disability group. At each assessment these relationships were poorer for children with intellectual disability. Child behavior problems consistently predicted more conflict, whereas social skills predicted more closeness. Accounting for these child characteristics reduced the status group difference to nonsignificance. Earlier student–teacher relationships predicted subsequent changes in child behavior problems and social skills. Student–teacher relationships in the intellectual disability group were significantly lower for children in regular than special classes by age 8. PMID:19928015

MADRS symptom subtypes in ECT-treated depressed patients: relationship to response and subsequent ECT.

PubMed

Spashett, Renee; Fernie, Gordon; Reid, Ian C; Cameron, Isobel M

2014-09-01

This study aimed to explore the relationship of Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) symptom subtypes with response to electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) and subsequent ECT treatment within 12 months. A consecutive sample of 414 patients with depression receiving ECT in the North East of Scotland was assessed by retrospective chart review. Response rate was defined as greater than or equal to 50% decrease in pretreatment total MADRS score or a posttreatment total MADRS less than or equal to 10. Principal component analyses were conducted on a sample with psychotic features (n = 124) and a sample without psychotic features (n = 290). Scores on extracted factor subscales, clinical and demographic characteristics were assessed for association with response and subsequent ECT treatment within 12 months. Where more than 1 variable was associated with response or subsequent ECT, logistic regression analysis was applied. MADRS symptom subtypes formed 3 separate factors in both samples. Logistic regression revealed older age and high "Despondency" subscale score predicted response in the nonpsychotic group. Older age alone predicted response in the group with psychotic features. Nonpsychotic patients subsequently re-treated with ECT were older than those not prescribed subsequent ECT. No association of variables emerged with subsequent ECT treatment in the group with psychotic features. Being of older age and the presence of psychotic features predicted response. Presence of psychotic features alone predicted subsequent retreatment. Subscale scores of the MADRS are of limited use in predicting which patients with depression will respond to ECT, with the exception of "Despondency" subscale scores in patients without psychotic features.

Prediction of Neonatal Hyperbilirubinemia Using 1st Day Serum Bilirubin Levels.

PubMed

Spoorthi, S M; Dandinavar, Siddappa F; Ratageri, Vinod H; Wari, Prakash K

2018-02-15

The study was conducted on Full term neonates with birth weight > 2.5 kg born in KIMS, Hubballi with an objective to determine the first day Total Serum Bilirubin (TSB) value so as to predict subsequent development of significant hyperbilirubinemia in term neonates. All enrolled neonates were sampled for TSB and blood group on Day 1 at 20 ± 4 h and then followed up clinically by Kramer's rule and when the clinical jaundice by Kramer's rule was >10 mg/dl, TSB levels were repeated. A total of 180 newborns were enrolled for the study and 165 babies completed the study. Out of these, 17(10.3%) babies had significant hyperbilirubinemia by day 5 of life. Using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve, a cut off TSB value of 6.15 mg/dl was determined with sensitivity of 82.4%, specificity of 81.8%, positive predictive value of 32.8%, negative predictive value 97.6%. In term neonates, the first day total bilirubin level at 20 ± 4 h of life <6.15 predicts the low risk of subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia with high probability.

A Global Rapid Integrated Monitoring System for Water Cycle and Water Resource Assessment (Global-RIMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roads, John; Voeroesmarty, Charles

2005-01-01

The main focus of our work was to solidify underlying data sets, the data processing tools and the modeling environment needed to perform a series of long-term global and regional hydrological simulations leading eventually to routine hydrometeorological predictions. A water and energy budget synthesis was developed for the Mississippi River Basin (Roads et al. 2003), in order to understand better what kinds of errors exist in current hydrometeorological data sets. This study is now being extended globally with a larger number of observations and model based data sets under the new NASA NEWS program. A global comparison of a number of precipitation data sets was subsequently carried out (Fekete et al. 2004) in which it was further shown that reanalysis precipitation has substantial problems, which subsequently led us to the development of a precipitation assimilation effort (Nunes and Roads 2005). We believe that with current levels of model skill in predicting precipitation that precipitation assimilation is necessary to get the appropriate land surface forcing.

Ionizing radiation-induced mutagenesis: radiation studies in Neurospora predictive for results in mammalian cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, H. H.; DeMarini, D. M.

1999-01-01

Ionizing radiation was the first mutagen discovered and was used to develop the first mutagenicity assay. In the ensuing 70+ years, ionizing radiation became a fundamental tool in understanding mutagenesis and is still a subject of intensive research. Frederick de Serres et al. developed and used the Neurospora crassa ad-3 system initially to explore the mutagenic effects of ionizing radiation. Using this system, de Serres et al. demonstrated the dependence of the frequency and spectra of mutations induced by ionizing radiation on the dose, dose rate, radiation quality, repair capabilities of the cells, and the target gene employed. This work in Neurospora predicted the subsequent observations of the mutagenic effects of ionizing radiation in mammalian cells. Modeled originally on the mouse specific-locus system developed by William L. Russell, the N. crassa ad-3 system developed by de Serres has itself served as a model for interpreting the results in subsequent systems in mammalian cells. This review describes the primary findings on the nature of ionizing radiation-induced mutagenesis in the N. crassa ad-3 system and the parallel observations made years later in mammalian cells.

An Analysis of the Relationship between School-Level AP® Professional Development Activity and Subsequent Student AP Performance. Research Report No. 2012-8

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laitusis, Vytas

2012-01-01

The overarching purpose behind this evaluation was to gauge the impact of AP professional development (PD) on AP student outcomes in a state with a significant rate of PD implementation. The evaluation attempted to predict the level of student AP performance by the number of AP professional development events attended by teachers in that school in…

Achievement Emotions and Academic Performance: Longitudinal Models of Reciprocal Effects.

PubMed

Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; Marsh, Herbert W; Murayama, Kou; Goetz, Thomas

2017-09-01

A reciprocal effects model linking emotion and achievement over time is proposed. The model was tested using five annual waves of the Project for the Analysis of Learning and Achievement in Mathematics (PALMA) longitudinal study, which investigated adolescents' development in mathematics (Grades 5-9; N = 3,425 German students; mean starting age = 11.7 years; representative sample). Structural equation modeling showed that positive emotions (enjoyment, pride) positively predicted subsequent achievement (math end-of-the-year grades and test scores), and that achievement positively predicted these emotions, controlling for students' gender, intelligence, and family socioeconomic status. Negative emotions (anger, anxiety, shame, boredom, hopelessness) negatively predicted achievement, and achievement negatively predicted these emotions. The findings were robust across waves, achievement indicators, and school tracks, highlighting the importance of emotions for students' achievement and of achievement for the development of emotions. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Fathers' challenging parenting behavior prevents social anxiety development in their 4-year-old children: a longitudinal observational study.

PubMed

Majdandžić, Mirjana; Möller, Eline L; de Vente, Wieke; Bögels, Susan M; van den Boom, Dymphna C

2014-02-01

Recent models on parenting propose different roles for fathers and mothers in the development of child anxiety. Specifically, it is suggested that fathers' challenging parenting behavior, in which the child is playfully encouraged to push her limits, buffers against child anxiety. In this longitudinal study, we explored whether the effect of challenging parenting on children's social anxiety differed between fathers and mothers. Fathers and mothers from 94 families were separately observed with their two children (44 % girls), aged 2 and 4 years at Time 1, in three structured situations involving one puzzle task and two games. Overinvolved and challenging parenting behavior were coded. Child social anxiety was measured by observing the child's response to a stranger at Time 1, and half a year later at Time 2, and by parental ratings. In line with predictions, father's challenging parenting behavior predicted less subsequent observed social anxiety of the 4-year-old child. Mothers' challenging behavior, however, predicted more observed social anxiety of the 4-year-old. Parents' overinvolvement at Time 1 did not predict change in observed social anxiety of the 4-year-old child. For the 2-year-old child, maternal and paternal parenting behavior did not predict subsequent social anxiety, but early social anxiety marginally did. Parent-rated social anxiety was predicted by previous parental ratings of social anxiety, and not by parenting behavior. Challenging parenting behavior appears to have favorable effects on observed 4-year-old's social anxiety when displayed by the father. Challenging parenting behavior emerges as an important focus for future research and interventions.

The association between retinal vascular geometry changes and diabetic retinopathy and their role in prediction of progression – an exploratory study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The study describes the relationship of retinal vascular geometry (RVG) to severity of diabetic retinopathy (DR), and its predictive role for subsequent development of proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR). Methods The research project comprises of two stages. Firstly, a comparative study of diabetic patients with different grades of DR. (No DR: Minimal non-proliferative DR: Severe non-proliferative DR: PDR) (10:10: 12: 19). Analysed RVG features including vascular widths and branching angles were compared between patient cohorts. A preliminary statistical model for determination of the retinopathy grade of patients, using these features, is presented. Secondly, in a longitudinal predictive study, RVG features were analysed for diabetic patients with progressive DR over 7 years. RVG at baseline was examined to determine risk for subsequent PDR development. Results In the comparative study, increased DR severity was associated with gradual vascular dilatation (p = 0.000), and widening of the bifurcating angle (p = 0.000) with increase in smaller-child-vessel branching angle (p = 0.027). Type 2 diabetes and increased diabetes duration were associated with increased vascular width (p = <0.05 In the predictive study, at baseline, reduced small-child vascular width (OR = 0.73 (95% CI 0.58-0.92)), was predictive of future progression to PDR. Conclusions The study findings suggest that RVG alterations can act as novel markers indicative of progression of DR severity and establishment of PDR. RVG may also have a potential predictive role in determining the risk of future retinopathy progression. PMID:25001248

Externalizing Problems in Childhood and Adolescence Predict Subsequent Educational Achievement but for Different Genetic and Environmental Reasons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, Gary J.; Asbury, Kathryn; Plomin, Robert

2017-01-01

Background: Childhood behavior problems predict subsequent educational achievement; however, little research has examined the etiology of these links using a longitudinal twin design. Moreover, it is unknown whether genetic and environmental innovations provide incremental prediction for educational achievement from childhood to adolescence.…

Tetanus toxoid IgE may be useful in predicting allergy during childhood.

PubMed

Ciprandi, G; De Amici, M; Quaglini, S; Labò, E; Castellazzi, A M; Miraglia Del Giudice, M; Marseglia, A; Bianchi, L; Moratti, R; Marseglia, G L

2012-01-01

Hypersensitivity reactions after immunization with tetanus toxoid are occasionally observed in atopic and non-atopic individuals. High IgE levels in infancy may predict subsequent allergy. The aims of this study were: i) to evaluate the role of specific IgE to tetanus toxoid in children in response to tetanus immunization and the possible factors associated with specific IgE levels, and ii) to investigate the correlation between specific IgE levels to tetanus toxoid and the late development of allergy (up to 12 years). Initially, 278 healthy infants (152 males and 126 females, aged 12 months) living in an urban city were screened for serum total IgE and specific IgE to tetanus toxoid, after having obtained informed consent from parents. After 12 years, 151 children could be evaluated. Total IgE summed with tetanus specific IgE were significantly associated with allergy at 12 years. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that serum total IgE and tetanus specific IgE may be predictive of subsequent allergy onset.

Off-Time Pubertal Timing Predicts Physiological Reactivity to Postpuberty Interpersonal Stress

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Anne Emilie; Powers, Sally I.

2009-01-01

We investigated associations between retrospectively assessed timing of pubertal development, interpersonal interactions, and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis reactivity to an interpersonal stress task in 110 young adult women. Participants provided salivary cortisol samples at points prior and subsequent to a video-taped conflict discussion…

USE OF WAVE EXPOSURE TECHNIQUE FOR PREDICTING DISTRIBUTION AND ECOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF SEAGRASS ECOSYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

The development of seagrass patches and subsequently, the landscape that they define, is typically thought to be dependent on the phenotypic response of seagrass to environmental factors such as light/nutrients (Dennison et al. 1993), sedimentation (Harlin and Thorne-Miller 1981)...

Maternal Serum and Amniotic Fluid Inhibin A Levels in Women who Subsequently Develop Severe Preeclampsia

PubMed Central

Kim, Shin-Young; Yang, Jae-Hyug; Kim, Moon-Young; Ahn, Hyun-Kyong; Shin, Joong-Sik; Choi, Jun-Seek; Park, So-Yeon; Kim, Jin-Mi; Lee, Bom-Yi; Kim, Do-Jin

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether maternal serum (MS) and amniotic fluid (AF) inhibin A levels are elevated in patients who subsequently develop severe preecalmpsia, and to investigate the correlation between MS and AF inhibin A levels in the second trimester. The study included 40 patients who subsequently developed severe preecalmpsia and 80 normal pregnant women. Inhibin A levels in MS and AF were measured with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The MS and AF inhibin A levels in patients who developed severe preeclampsia were significantly higher than those in the control group (both for p<0.001). There was a positive correlation between MS and AF inhibin A levels in patients who developed severe preeclampsia (r=0.397, p=0.011), but not in the control group (r=0.185, p=0.126). The best cutoff values of MS and AF inhibin A levels for the prediction of severe preeclampsia were 427 pg/mL and 599 pg/mL, respectively; the estimated ORs that were associated with these cut-off values were 9.95 (95% CI 3.8-25.9, p<0.001) and 6.0 (95% CI 2.3-15.8, p<0.001). An elevated level of inhibin A in MS and AF at the time of second trimester amniocentesis may be a risk factor for the subsequent development of severe preeclampsia. PMID:16778388

Predicting the recruitment of established regeneration into the sapling size class following partial cutting in the Acadian Forest Region: Using long-term observations to assess the performance of FVS-NE

Treesearch

David Ray; Chad Keyser; Robert Seymour; John Brissette

2008-01-01

Forest managers are increasingly called upon to provide long-term predictions of forest development. The dynamics of regeneration establishment, survival and subsequent recruitment of established seedlings to larger size classes is a critical component of these forecasts, yet remains a weak link in available models. To test the reliability of FVS-NE for simulating...

Ovary transcriptome profiling via artificial intelligence reveals a transcriptomic fingerprint predicting egg quality in striped bass, Morone saxatilis.

PubMed

Chapman, Robert W; Reading, Benjamin J; Sullivan, Craig V

2014-01-01

Inherited gene transcripts deposited in oocytes direct early embryonic development in all vertebrates, but transcript profiles indicative of embryo developmental competence have not previously been identified. We employed artificial intelligence to model profiles of maternal ovary gene expression and their relationship to egg quality, evaluated as production of viable mid-blastula stage embryos, in the striped bass (Morone saxatilis), a farmed species with serious egg quality problems. In models developed using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and supervised machine learning, collective changes in the expression of a limited suite of genes (233) representing <2% of the queried ovary transcriptome explained >90% of the eventual variance in embryo survival. Egg quality related to minor changes in gene expression (<0.2-fold), with most individual transcripts making a small contribution (<1%) to the overall prediction of egg quality. These findings indicate that the predictive power of the transcriptome as regards egg quality resides not in levels of individual genes, but rather in the collective, coordinated expression of a suite of transcripts constituting a transcriptomic "fingerprint". Correlation analyses of the corresponding candidate genes indicated that dysfunction of the ubiquitin-26S proteasome, COP9 signalosome, and subsequent control of the cell cycle engenders embryonic developmental incompetence. The affected gene networks are centrally involved in regulation of early development in all vertebrates, including humans. By assessing collective levels of the relevant ovarian transcripts via ANNs we were able, for the first time in any vertebrate, to accurately predict the subsequent embryo developmental potential of eggs from individual females. Our results show that the transcriptomic fingerprint evidencing developmental dysfunction is highly predictive of, and therefore likely to regulate, egg quality, a biologically complex trait crucial to reproductive fitness.

Ovary Transcriptome Profiling via Artificial Intelligence Reveals a Transcriptomic Fingerprint Predicting Egg Quality in Striped Bass, Morone saxatilis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Inherited gene transcripts deposited in oocytes direct early embryonic development in all vertebrates, but transcript profiles indicative of embryo developmental competence have not previously been identified. We employed artificial intelligence to model profiles of maternal ovary gene expression and their relationship to egg quality, evaluated as production of viable mid-blastula stage embryos, in the striped bass (Morone saxatilis), a farmed species with serious egg quality problems. In models developed using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and supervised machine learning, collective changes in the expression of a limited suite of genes (233) representing <2% of the queried ovary transcriptome explained >90% of the eventual variance in embryo survival. Egg quality related to minor changes in gene expression (<0.2-fold), with most individual transcripts making a small contribution (<1%) to the overall prediction of egg quality. These findings indicate that the predictive power of the transcriptome as regards egg quality resides not in levels of individual genes, but rather in the collective, coordinated expression of a suite of transcripts constituting a transcriptomic “fingerprint”. Correlation analyses of the corresponding candidate genes indicated that dysfunction of the ubiquitin-26S proteasome, COP9 signalosome, and subsequent control of the cell cycle engenders embryonic developmental incompetence. The affected gene networks are centrally involved in regulation of early development in all vertebrates, including humans. By assessing collective levels of the relevant ovarian transcripts via ANNs we were able, for the first time in any vertebrate, to accurately predict the subsequent embryo developmental potential of eggs from individual females. Our results show that the transcriptomic fingerprint evidencing developmental dysfunction is highly predictive of, and therefore likely to regulate, egg quality, a biologically complex trait crucial to reproductive fitness. PMID:24820964

Simulation of Aluminum Micro-mirrors for Space Applications at Cryogenic Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuhn, J. L.; Dutta, S. B.; Greenhouse, M. A.; Mott, D. B.

2000-01-01

Closed form and finite element models are developed to predict the device response of aluminum electrostatic torsion micro-mirrors fabricated on silicon substrate for space applications at operating temperatures of 30K. Initially, closed form expressions for electrostatic pressure arid mechanical restoring torque are used to predict the pull-in and release voltages at room temperature. Subsequently, a detailed mechanical finite element model is developed to predict stresses and vertical beam deflection induced by the electrostatic and thermal loads. An incremental and iterative solution method is used in conjunction with the nonlinear finite element model and closed form electrostatic equations to solve. the coupled electro-thermo-mechanical problem. The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements at room temperature of fabricated micro-mirror devices.

The Predictive Accuracy of Verbal, Quantitative, and Nonverbal Reasoning Tests: Consequences for Talent Identification and Program Diversity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lakin, Joni M.; Lohman, David F.

2011-01-01

Effective talent-identification procedures minimize the proportion of students whose subsequent performance indicates that they were mistakenly included in or excluded from the program. Classification errors occur when students who were predicted to excel subsequently do not excel or when students who were not predicted to excel do. Using a…

Unique Associations between Childhood Temperament Characteristics and Subsequent Psychopathology Symptom Trajectories from Childhood to Early Adolescence.

PubMed

Forbes, Miriam K; Rapee, Ronald M; Camberis, Anna-Lisa; McMahon, Catherine A

2017-08-01

Existing research suggests that temperamental traits that emerge early in childhood may have utility for early detection and intervention for common mental disorders. The present study examined the unique relationships between the temperament characteristics of reactivity, approach-sociability, and persistence in early childhood and subsequent symptom trajectories of psychopathology (depression, anxiety, conduct disorder, and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder; ADHD) from childhood to early adolescence. Data were from the first five waves of the older cohort from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (n = 4983; 51.2% male), which spanned ages 4-5 to 12-13. Multivariate ordinal and logistic regressions examined whether parent-reported child temperament characteristics at age 4-5 predicted the study child's subsequent symptom trajectories for each domain of psychopathology (derived using latent class growth analyses), after controlling for other presenting symptoms. Temperament characteristics differentially predicted the symptom trajectories for depression, anxiety, conduct disorder, and ADHD: Higher levels of reactivity uniquely predicted higher symptom trajectories for all 4 domains; higher levels of approach-sociability predicted higher trajectories of conduct disorder and ADHD, but lower trajectories of anxiety; and higher levels of persistence were related to lower trajectories of conduct disorder and ADHD. These findings suggest that temperament is an early identifiable risk factor for the development of psychopathology, and that identification and timely interventions for children with highly reactive temperaments in particular could prevent later mental health problems.

Prosocial Behavior in Adolescence: Gender Differences in Development and Links with Empathy.

PubMed

Van der Graaff, Jolien; Carlo, Gustavo; Crocetti, Elisabetta; Koot, Hans M; Branje, Susan

2018-05-01

Although adolescents' prosocial behavior is related to various positive outcomes, longitudinal research on its development and predictors is still sparse. This 6-wave longitudinal study investigated the development of prosocial behavior across adolescence, and examined longitudinal associations with perspective taking and empathic concern. Participants were 497 adolescents (M age t1 =  13.03 years, 43% girls) who reported on their prosocial behaviors, empathic concern, and perspective taking. The results revealed marked gender differences in the development of prosocial behavior. For boys, levels of prosocial behavior were stable until age 14, followed by an increase until age 17, and a slight decrease thereafter. For girls, prosocial behavior increased until age 16 years and then slightly decreased. Regarding longitudinal associations, empathic concern was consistently related to subsequent prosocial behavior. However, perspective taking was only indirectly related to prosocial behavior, via its effect on empathic concern. Tests of the direction of effects showed support for the notion that earlier prosocial behavior predicts subsequent empathy-related traits, but only for girls. The findings support cognitive-developmental and moral socialization theories of prosocial development and the primary role of moral emotions in predicting prosocial behaviors. Our findings inform strategies to foster prosocial behaviors by emphasizing moral emotions rather than moral cognitions during adolescence.

Urinary type IV collagen excretion predicts subsequent declining renal function in type 2 diabetic patients with proteinuria.

PubMed

Katavetin, Pisut; Katavetin, Paravee; Susantitaphong, Paweena; Townamchai, Natavudh; Tiranathanagul, Khajohn; Tungsanga, Kriang; Eiam-Ong, Somchai

2010-08-01

Baseline urinary type IV collagen excretion was negatively correlated with the subsequent GFR change (r(s)=-0.39, p=0.04) in our cohort of 30 type 2 diabetic patients with proteinuria. Therefore, it could be used to predict subsequent declining renal function in type 2 diabetic patients with proteinuria. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forest structure following tornado damage and salvage logging in northern Maine, USA

Treesearch

Shawn Fraver; Kevin J. Dodds; Laura S. Kenefic; Rick Morrill; Robert S. Seymour; Eben Sypitkowski

2017-01-01

Understanding forest structural changes resulting from postdisturbance management practices such as salvage logging is critical for predicting forest recovery and developing appropriate management strategies. In 2013, a tornado and subsequent salvage operations in northern Maine, USA, created three conditions (i.e., treatments) with contrasting forest structure:...

A Model to predict the impact of specification changes on the chloride-induced service life of Virginia bridge decks.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-01-01

A model to determine the time to first repair and subsequent rehabilitation of concrete bridge decks exposed to chloride deicer salts that recognizes and incorporates the statistical nature of factors affecting the corrosion process is developed. The...

Diversity Matters: Parent Input Predicts Toddler Verb Production

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsu, Ning; Hadley, Pamela A.; Rispoli, Matthew

2017-01-01

The contribution of parent input to children's subsequent expressive verb diversity was explored in twenty typically developing toddlers with small verb lexicons. Child developmental factors and parent input measures (i.e. verb quantity, verb diversity, and verb-related structural cues) at age 1;9 were examined as potential predictors of…

Examining the Intergenerational Transmission of Violence in a New Zealand Birth Cohort

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fergusson, David M.; Boden, Joseph M.; Horwood, L. John

2006-01-01

Objective: This paper examines whether exposure to interparental violence in childhood predicts subsequent involvement in interpartner violence and violent crime after controlling for potentially confounding factors. Method: The investigation analyses data from the Christchurch Health and Development Study, a prospective, longitudinal study of a…

Predicting survival of men with recurrent prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Dell'Oglio, Paolo; Suardi, Nazareno; Boorjian, Stephen A; Fossati, Nicola; Gandaglia, Giorgio; Tian, Zhe; Moschini, Marco; Capitanio, Umberto; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Montorsi, Francesco; Karnes, R Jeffrey; Briganti, Alberto

2016-02-01

To develop and externally validate a novel nomogram aimed at predicting cancer-specific mortality (CSM) after biochemical recurrence (BCR) among prostate cancer (PCa) patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) with or without adjuvant external beam radiotherapy (aRT) and/or hormonal therapy (aHT). The development cohort included 689 consecutive PCa patients treated with RP between 1987 and 2011 with subsequent BCR, defined as two subsequent prostate-specific antigen values >0.2 ng/ml. Multivariable competing-risks regression analyses tested the predictors of CSM after BCR for the purpose of 5-year CSM nomogram development. Validation (2000 bootstrap resamples) was internally tested. External validation was performed into a population of 6734 PCa patients with BCR after treatment with RP at the Mayo Clinic from 1987 to 2011. The predictive accuracy (PA) was quantified using the receiver operating characteristic-derived area under the curve and the calibration plot method. The 5-year CSM-free survival rate was 83.6% (confidence interval [CI]: 79.6-87.2). In multivariable analyses, pathologic stage T3b or more (hazard ratio [HR]: 7.42; p = 0.008), pathologic Gleason score 8-10 (HR: 2.19; p = 0.003), lymph node invasion (HR: 3.57; p = 0.001), time to BCR (HR: 0.99; p = 0.03) and age at BCR (HR: 1.04; p = 0.04), were each significantly associated with the risk of CSM after BCR. The bootstrap-corrected PA was 87.4% (bootstrap 95% CI: 82.0-91.7%). External validation of our nomogram showed a good PA at 83.2%. We developed and externally validated the first nomogram predicting 5-year CSM applicable to contemporary patients with BCR after RP with or without adjuvant treatment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do anxiety symptoms predict major depressive disorder in midlife women? The Study of Women’s Health Across the Nation (SWAN) Mental Health Study (MHS)

PubMed Central

Kravitz, H. M.; Schott, L. L.; Joffe, H.; Cyranowski, J.M.; Bromberger, J. T.

2014-01-01

Background In women, anxiety symptoms are common and increase during midlife, but little is known about whether these symptoms predict onsets of major depressive disorder (MDD) episodes. We examined whether anxiety symptoms are associated with subsequent episodes of MDD in midlife African-American and Caucasian women, and whether they confer a different risk for first versus recurrent MDD episodes. Method A longitudinal analysis was conducted using 12 years of data from the Study of Women’s Health Across the Nation (SWAN) Mental Health Study (MHS). The baseline sample comprised 425 Caucasian (n=278) and African American (n=147) community-dwelling women, aged 46.1±2.5 years. Anxiety symptoms measured annually using a self-report questionnaire were examined in relation to MDD episodes in the subsequent year, assessed with the SCID. Multivariable models were estimated with random effects logistic regression. Results Higher anxiety symptoms scores were associated with a significantly higher adjusted odds of developing an episode of MDD at the subsequent annual visit [odds ratio (OR) 1.47, p=0.01], specifically for a recurrent episode (OR 1.49, p=0.03) but non-significant for a first episode (OR 1.32, p=0.27). There were no significant racial effects in the association between anxiety symptoms and subsequent MDD episodes. Conclusions Anxiety symptoms often precede MDD and may increase the vulnerability of midlife women to depressive episodes, particularly recurrences. Women with anxiety symptoms should be monitored clinically during the ensuing year for the development of an MDD episode. PMID:24467997

Novel predictive models for metabolic syndrome risk: a "big data" analytic approach.

PubMed

Steinberg, Gregory B; Church, Bruce W; McCall, Carol J; Scott, Adam B; Kalis, Brian P

2014-06-01

We applied a proprietary "big data" analytic platform--Reverse Engineering and Forward Simulation (REFS)--to dimensions of metabolic syndrome extracted from a large data set compiled from Aetna's databases for 1 large national customer. Our goals were to accurately predict subsequent risk of metabolic syndrome and its various factors on both a population and individual level. The study data set included demographic, medical claim, pharmacy claim, laboratory test, and biometric screening results for 36,944 individuals. The platform reverse-engineered functional models of systems from diverse and large data sources and provided a simulation framework for insight generation. The platform interrogated data sets from the results of 2 Comprehensive Metabolic Syndrome Screenings (CMSSs) as well as complete coverage records; complete data from medical claims, pharmacy claims, and lab results for 2010 and 2011; and responses to health risk assessment questions. The platform predicted subsequent risk of metabolic syndrome, both overall and by risk factor, on population and individual levels, with ROC/AUC varying from 0.80 to 0.88. We demonstrated that improving waist circumference and blood glucose yielded the largest benefits on subsequent risk and medical costs. We also showed that adherence to prescribed medications and, particularly, adherence to routine scheduled outpatient doctor visits, reduced subsequent risk. The platform generated individualized insights using available heterogeneous data within 3 months. The accuracy and short speed to insight with this type of analytic platform allowed Aetna to develop targeted cost-effective care management programs for individuals with or at risk for metabolic syndrome.

Within-person Changes in Individual Symptoms of Depression Predict Subsequent Depressive Episodes in Adolescents: A Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Kouros, Chrystyna D.; Morris, Matthew C.; Garber, Judy

2015-01-01

The current longitudinal study examined which individual symptoms of depression uniquely predicted a subsequent Major Depressive Episode (MDE) in adolescents, and whether these relations differed by sex. Adolescents (N=240) were first interviewed in grade 6 (M=11.86 years old; SD = 0.56; 54% female; 81.5% Caucasian) and then annually through grade 12 regarding their individual symptoms of depression as well as the occurrence of MDEs. Individual symptoms of depression were assessed with the Children’s Depression Rating Scale-Revised (CDRS-R) and depressive episodes were assessed with the Longitudinal Interval Follow-up Evaluation (LIFE). Results showed that within-person changes in sleep problems and low self-esteem/excessive guilt positively predicted an increased likelihood of an MDE for both boys and girls. Significant sex differences also were found. Within-person changes in anhedonia predicted an increased likelihood of a subsequent MDE among boys, whereas irritability predicted a decreased likelihood of a future MDE among boys, and concentration difficulties predicted a decreased likelihood of an MDE in girls. These results identified individual depressive symptoms that predicted subsequent depressive episodes in male and female adolescents, and may be used to guide the early detection, treatment, and prevention of depressive disorders in youth. PMID:26105209

How can we better predict the risk of spontaneous miscarriage among women experiencing threatened miscarriage?

PubMed

Ku, Chee Wai; Allen, John C; Malhotra, Rahul; Chong, Han Chung; Tan, Nguan Soon; Østbye, Truls; Lek, Sze Min; Lie, Desiree; Tan, Thiam Chye

2015-01-01

This study seeks to establish progesterone and progesterone-induced blocking factor (PIBF) levels as predictors of subsequent completed miscarriage among women presenting with threatened miscarriage between 6 and 10 weeks of gestation. Our secondary objective was to assess the known maternal risk factors, toward development of a parsimonious and clinician-friendly risk assessment model for predicting completed miscarriage. In this article, we present a prospective cohort study of 119 patients presenting with threatened miscarriage from gestation weeks 6 to 10 at a tertiary women's hospital emergency unit in Singapore. Thirty (25.2%) women had a spontaneous miscarriage. Low progesterone and PIBF levels are similarly predictive of subsequent completed miscarriage. Study results (OR, 95% CI) showed that higher levels of progesterone (0.91, 95% CI 0.88-0.94) and PIBF (0.99, 95% CI 0.98-0.99) were associated with lower risk of miscarriage. Low progesterone level was a very strong predictor of miscarriage risk in our study despite previous concerns about its pulsatile secretion. Low serum progesterone and PIBF levels predicted spontaneous miscarriage among women presenting with threatened miscarriage between gestation weeks 6 to 10. Predictive models to calculate probability of spontaneous miscarriage based on serum progesterone, together with maternal BMI and fetal heart are proposed.

The union of narrative and executive function: different but complementary

PubMed Central

Friend, Margaret; Bates, Raven Phoenix

2014-01-01

Oral narrative production develops dramatically from 3 to 5 years of age, and is a key factor in a child's ability to communicate about the world. Concomitant with this are developments in executive function (EF). For example, executive attention and behavioral inhibition show marked development beginning around 4 years of age. Both EF and oral narrative abilities have important implications for academic success, but the relationship between them is not well understood. The present paper utilizes a cross-lagged design to assess convergent and predictive relations between EF and narrative ability. As a collateral measure, we collected a Language Sample during 10 min of free play. Language Sample did not share significant variance with Narrative Production, thus general language growth from Wave 1 to Wave 2 cannot account for the predictive relations between EF and Narrative. Our findings suggest that although EF and Narrative ability appear independent at each Wave, they nevertheless support each other over developmental time. Specifically, the ability to maintain focus at 4 years supports subsequent narrative ability and narrative ability at 4 years supports subsequent facility and speed in learning and implementing new rules. PMID:24872811

Prediction of Preeclampsia in Early Pregnancy by Estimating the Spot Urinary Albumin/Creatinine Ratio.

PubMed

Gupta, Nupur; Gupta, Taru; Asthana, Deepti

2017-08-01

To assess whether a spot urinary albumin:creatinine ratio (ACR) measured before 20 weeks of gestation can predict subsequent development of preeclampsia. The ACR was determined from midstream urine sample taken between 17 and 20 weeks of gestation. Urine albumin was measured by immunoturbidimetric method using commercially available kit (Beckman Coulter) through Beckman AU 480 fully automated biochemistry analyzer. Urine creatinine was measured by modified kinetic Jaffe reaction without deproteinization.[Formula: see text]Participants were then followed until delivery. Primary outcome measure was preeclampsia, secondary outcome measures were gestational hypertension, gestational diabetes mellitus, IUGR, and normal range estimate of urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio was established. The median spot urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio measured between 17 and 20 weeks of gestation was 5.2 mg/g of creatinine (2.5-9.6). Women who subsequently developed preeclampsia had higher spot urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (median 30.795 [9.7-92.8]) in comparison with women who developed gestational hypertension (median 5.2 [0.7-7.2]) and unaffected women (median 5.2 [2.5-9.6]). The urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio of the mother who developed IUGR was significantly higher. By ROC analysis, the optimum ACR to predict preeclampsia was 9.85 mg/g of creatinine. The relative risk of developing preeclampsia in women with urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio more than 9.85 mg/g of creatinine was higher than in the women who had urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio less than 9.85 mg/g of creatinine. A spot urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio of more than 9.8 mg/g of creatinine can predict the development of preeclampsia in later pregnancy with the sensitivity and specificity of 67 and 76%, respectively. However, additional studies and cost-benefit analysis are required to confirm these finding before recommending this test for screening purposes.

The prospective relationship between satisfaction with information and symptoms of depression and anxiety in breast cancer: A structural equation modeling analysis.

PubMed

Faller, Hermann; Strahl, André; Richard, Matthias; Niehues, Christiane; Meng, Karin

2017-11-01

Previous research has demonstrated associations between satisfaction with information and reduced emotional distress in cancer patients. However, as most studies were cross-sectional, the direction of this relationship remained unclear. We therefore aimed to test whether information satisfaction predicted subsequent depression and anxiety levels, and, reciprocally, depression and anxiety levels predicted subsequent information satisfaction, thus clarifying the direction of impact. We performed a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study with 436 female breast cancer patients (mean age 51 years). We measured information satisfaction with 2 self-developed items, symptoms of depression with the 2-item Patient Heath Questionnaire and symptoms of anxiety with the 2-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale. We created 2 structural equation models, 1 for depression and 1 for anxiety, that examined the prediction of 1-year depression (or anxiety) levels by baseline information satisfaction and, in the same model, 1-year information satisfaction by baseline depression (or anxiety) levels (cross-lagged panel analysis). Baseline information satisfaction predicted 1-year levels of both depression (beta = -0.17, P < .01) and anxiety (beta = -0.13, P < .01), adjusting for the baseline scores of the outcome variables. Conversely, baseline levels of depression (beta = -0.12, P < .05) and anxiety (beta = -0.16, P < .01) predicted 1-year information satisfaction, adjusting for its baseline score. Our results suggest a bidirectional relationship between information satisfaction and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Thus, provision of information may reduce subsequent depression and anxiety, while reducing depression and anxiety levels may increase satisfaction with received information. Combining the provision of information with emotional support may be particularly beneficial. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A testing strategy to predict risk for drug-induced liver injury in humans using high-content screen assays and the 'rule-of-two' model.

PubMed

Chen, Minjun; Tung, Chun-Wei; Shi, Qiang; Guo, Lei; Shi, Leming; Fang, Hong; Borlak, Jürgen; Tong, Weida

2014-07-01

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a major cause of drug failures in both the preclinical and clinical phase. Consequently, improving prediction of DILI at an early stage of drug discovery will reduce the potential failures in the subsequent drug development program. In this regard, high-content screening (HCS) assays are considered as a promising strategy for the study of DILI; however, the predictive performance of HCS assays is frequently insufficient. In the present study, a new testing strategy was developed to improve DILI prediction by employing in vitro assays that was combined with the RO2 model (i.e., 'rule-of-two' defined by daily dose ≥100 mg/day & logP ≥3). The RO2 model was derived from the observation that high daily doses and lipophilicity of an oral medication were associated with significant DILI risk in humans. In the developed testing strategy, the RO2 model was used for the rational selection of candidates for HCS assays, and only the negatives predicted by the RO2 model were further investigated by HCS. Subsequently, the effects of drug treatment on cell loss, nuclear size, DNA damage/fragmentation, apoptosis, lysosomal mass, mitochondrial membrane potential, and steatosis were studied in cultures of primary rat hepatocytes. Using a set of 70 drugs with clear evidence of clinically relevant DILI, the testing strategy improved the accuracies by 10 % and reduced the number of drugs requiring experimental assessment by approximately 20 %, as compared to the HCS assay alone. Moreover, the testing strategy was further validated by including published data (Cosgrove et al. in Toxicol Appl Pharmacol 237:317-330, 2009) on drug-cytokine-induced hepatotoxicity, which improved the accuracies by 7 %. Taken collectively, the proposed testing strategy can significantly improve the prediction of in vitro assays for detecting DILI liability in an early drug discovery phase.

Reference equation for prediction of a total distance during six-minute walk test using Indonesian anthropometrics.

PubMed

Nusdwinuringtyas, Nury; Widjajalaksmi; Yunus, Faisal; Alwi, Idrus

2014-04-01

to develop a reference equation for prediction of the total distance walk using Indonesian anthropometrics of sedentary healthy subjects. Subsequently, the prediction obtained was compared to those calculated by the Caucasian-based Enright prediction equation. the cross-sectional study was conducted among 123 healthy Indonesian adults with sedentary life style (58 male and 65 female subjects in an age range between 18 and 50 years). Heart rate was recorded using Polar with expectation in the sub-maximal zone (120-170 beats per minute). The subjects performed two six-minute walk tests, the first one on a 15-meter track according to the protocol developed by the investigator. The second walk was carried out on Biodex®gait trainer as gold standard. an average total distance of 547±54.24 m was found, not significantly different from the gold standard of 544.72±54.11 m (p>0.05). Multiple regression analysis was performed to develop the new equation. the reference equation for prediction of the total distance using Indonesian anthropometrics is more applicable in Indonesia.

A study of material damping in large space structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Highsmith, A. L.; Allen, D. H.

1989-01-01

A constitutive model was developed for predicting damping as a function of damage in continuous fiber reinforced laminated composites. The damage model is a continuum formulation, and uses internal state variables to quantify damage and its subsequent effect on material response. The model is sensitive to the stacking sequence of the laminate. Given appropriate baseline data from unidirectional material, and damping as a function of damage in one crossply laminate, damage can be predicted as a function of damage in other crossply laminates. Agreement between theory and experiment was quite good. A micromechanics model was also developed for examining the influence of damage on damping. This model explicitly includes crack surfaces. The model provides reasonable predictions of bending stiffness as a function of damage. Damping predictions are not in agreement with the experiment. This is thought to be a result of dissipation mechanisms such as friction, which are not presently included in the analysis.

Model training across multiple breeding cycles significantly improves genomic prediction accuracy in rye (Secale cereale L.).

PubMed

Auinger, Hans-Jürgen; Schönleben, Manfred; Lehermeier, Christina; Schmidt, Malthe; Korzun, Viktor; Geiger, Hartwig H; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Gordillo, Andres; Wilde, Peer; Bauer, Eva; Schön, Chris-Carolin

2016-11-01

Genomic prediction accuracy can be significantly increased by model calibration across multiple breeding cycles as long as selection cycles are connected by common ancestors. In hybrid rye breeding, application of genome-based prediction is expected to increase selection gain because of long selection cycles in population improvement and development of hybrid components. Essentially two prediction scenarios arise: (1) prediction of the genetic value of lines from the same breeding cycle in which model training is performed and (2) prediction of lines from subsequent cycles. It is the latter from which a reduction in cycle length and consequently the strongest impact on selection gain is expected. We empirically investigated genome-based prediction of grain yield, plant height and thousand kernel weight within and across four selection cycles of a hybrid rye breeding program. Prediction performance was assessed using genomic and pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP and PBLUP). A total of 1040 S 2 lines were genotyped with 16 k SNPs and each year testcrosses of 260 S 2 lines were phenotyped in seven or eight locations. The performance gap between GBLUP and PBLUP increased significantly for all traits when model calibration was performed on aggregated data from several cycles. Prediction accuracies obtained from cross-validation were in the order of 0.70 for all traits when data from all cycles (N CS  = 832) were used for model training and exceeded within-cycle accuracies in all cases. As long as selection cycles are connected by a sufficient number of common ancestors and prediction accuracy has not reached a plateau when increasing sample size, aggregating data from several preceding cycles is recommended for predicting genetic values in subsequent cycles despite decreasing relatedness over time.

Development of Predictive Models for the Growth Kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes on Fresh Pork under Different Storage Temperatures.

PubMed

Luo, Ke; Hong, Sung-Sam; Wang, Jun; Chung, Mi-Ja; Deog-Hwan, Oh

2015-05-01

This study was conducted to develop a predictive model to estimate the growth of Listeria monocytogenes on fresh pork during storage at constant temperatures (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35°C). The Baranyi model was fitted to growth data (log CFU per gram) to calculate the specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT) with a high coefficient of determination (R(2) > 0.98). As expected, SGR increased with a decline in LT with rising temperatures in all samples. Secondary models were then developed to describe the variation of SGR and LT as a function of temperature. Subsequently, the developed models were validated with additional independent growth data collected at 7, 17, 27, and 37°C and from published reports using proportion of relative errors and proportion of standard error of prediction. The proportion of relative errors of the SGR and LT models developed herein were 0.79 and 0.18, respectively. In addition, the standard error of prediction values of the SGR and LT of L. monocytogenes ranged from 25.7 to 33.1% and from 44.92 to 58.44%, respectively. These results suggest that the model developed in this study was capable of predicting the growth of L. monocytogenes under various isothermal conditions.

Generalized additive models and Lucilia sericata growth: assessing confidence intervals and error rates in forensic entomology.

PubMed

Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

2008-07-01

Forensic entomologists use blow fly development to estimate a postmortem interval. Although accurate, fly age estimates can be imprecise for older developmental stages and no standard means of assigning confidence intervals exists. Presented here is a method for modeling growth of the forensically important blow fly Lucilia sericata, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Eighteen GAMs were created to predict the extent of juvenile fly development, encompassing developmental stage, length, weight, strain, and temperature data, collected from 2559 individuals. All measures were informative, explaining up to 92.6% of the deviance in the data, though strain and temperature exerted negligible influences. Predictions made with an independent data set allowed for a subsequent examination of error. Estimates using length and developmental stage were within 5% of true development percent during the feeding portion of the larval life cycle, while predictions for postfeeding third instars were less precise, but within expected error.

Do cognitive attributions for smoking predict subsequent smoking development?

PubMed

Guo, Qian; Unger, Jennifer B; Azen, Stanley P; MacKinnon, David P; Johnson, C Anderson

2012-03-01

To develop more effective anti-smoking programs, it is important to understand the factors that influence people to smoke. Guided by attribution theory, a longitudinal study was conducted to investigate how individuals' cognitive attributions for smoking were associated with subsequent smoking development and through which pathways. Middle and high school students in seven large cities in China (N=12,382; 48.5% boys and 51.5% girls) completed two annual surveys. Associations between cognitive attributions for smoking and subsequent smoking initiation and progression were tested with multilevel analysis, taking into account plausible moderation effects of gender and baseline smoking status. Mediation effects of susceptibility to smoking were investigated using statistical mediation analysis (MacKinnon, 2008). Six out of eight tested themes of cognitive attributions were associated with subsequent smoking development. Curiosity (β=0.11, p<0.001) and autonomy (β=0.08, p=0.019) were associated with smoking initiation among baseline non-smokers. Coping (β=0.07, p<0.001) and social image (β=0.10, p=<.0001) were associated with smoking progression among baseline lifetime smokers. Social image (β=0.05, p=0.043), engagement (β=0.07, p=0.003), and mental enhancement (β=0.15, p<0.001) were associated with smoking progression among baseline past 30-day smokers. More attributions were associated with smoking development among males than among females. Susceptibility to smoking partially mediated most of the associations, with the proportion of mediated effects ranging from 4.3% to 30.8%. This study identifies the roles that cognitive attributions for smoking play in subsequent smoking development. These attributions could be addressed in smoking prevention programs. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Do Cognitive Attributions for Smoking Predict Subsequent Smoking Development?

PubMed Central

Guo, Qian; Unger, Jennifer B.; Azen, Stanley P.; MacKinnon, David P.; Johnson, C. Anderson

2011-01-01

To develop more effective anti-smoking programs, it is important to understand the factors that influence people to smoke. Guided by attribution theory, a longitudinal study was conducted to investigate how individuals’ cognitive attributions for smoking were associated with subsequent smoking development and through which pathways. Middle and high school students in seven large cities in China (N=12,382; 48.5% boys and 51.5% girls) completed two annual surveys. Associations between cognitive attributions for smoking and subsequent smoking initiation and progression were tested with multilevel analysis, taking into account plausible moderation effects of gender and baseline smoking status. Mediation effects of susceptibility to smoking were investigated using statistical mediation analysis (MacKinnon, 2008). Six out of eight tested themes of cognitive attributions were associated with subsequent smoking development. Curiosity (β=0.11, p<0.001) and autonomy (β=0.08, p=0.019) were associated with smoking initiation among baseline non-smokers. Coping (β=0.07, p<0.001) and social image (β=0.10, p=<.0001) were associated with smoking progression among baseline lifetime smokers. Social image (β=0.05, p=0.043), engagement (β=0.07, p=0.003), and mental enhancement (β=0.15, p<0.001) were associated with smoking progression among baseline past 30-day smokers. More attributions were associated with smoking development among males than among females. Susceptibility to smoking partially mediated most of the associations, with the proportion of mediated effects ranging from 4.3% to 30.8%. This study identifies the roles that cognitive attributions for smoking play in subsequent smoking development. These attributions could be addressed in smoking prevention programs. PMID:22112425

Computational Model of the Fathead Minnow Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Gonadal Axis: Incorporating Protein Synthesis in Improving Predictability of Responses to Endocrine Active Chemicals

EPA Science Inventory

There is international concern about chemicals that alter endocrine system function in humans and/or wildlife and subsequently cause adverse effects. We previously developed a mechanistic computational model of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis in female fathead minno...

Stress, Behavior and Health: Developing a Model for Predicting Post-Deployment Morbidity, Mortality and Other Adverse Outcomes

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-07-01

related health outcomes and risk factors for adverse health events. A secondary effort is to link self-reports of stress and subsequent increases in...Gulf War era veterans, information critical to the interpretation of postwar differences between these two groups . We have identified potential

The Impact of Postnatal Depression and Associated Adversity on Early Mother-Infant Interactions and Later Infant Outcome.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murray, Lynne; And Others

1996-01-01

Examined the impact of maternal depression and adversity on mother-infant face-to-face interactions at 2 months, and on subsequent infant cognitive development and attachment. Disturbances in early mother-infant interactions were found to be predictive of poorer infant cognitive outcomes at 18 months. (MDM)

Induced Innovation and Social Inequality: Evidence from Infant Medical Care

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cutler, David M.; Meara, Ellen; Richards-Shubik, Seth

2012-01-01

We develop a model of induced innovation that applies to medical research. Our model yields three empirical predictions. First, initial death rates and subsequent research effort should be positively correlated. Second, research effort should be associated with more rapid mortality declines. Third, as a byproduct of targeting the most common…

Global Contexts of Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lovett, Clara M.

2013-01-01

In his 2008 bestseller, "The Post-American World," Fareed Zakaria argued that the most significant development of the early 21st century is not, as others have predicted, the inevitable decline of the United States as the world's super-power but rather "the rise of the rest." In subsequent works, Zakaria and many others,…

The Relationship between Perceived Transformative Class Experiences and Subsequent Prosocial Intentions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harrell-Levy, Marinda K.; Kerpelman, Jennifer L.

2015-01-01

The present study tested a model showing how different aspects of high school courses focusing on social justice and prosocial development predicted prosocial intentions of students (N = 362) 2 to 29 years after they had completed the courses. Results indicated that students reporting more transformative class experiences (higher critical…

Predicting Adult Occupational Environments from Gender and Childhood Personality Traits

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Stephen A.; Hampson, Sarah E.

2010-01-01

To test aspects of a theory of the role of personality and gender on the development of vocational interests and their subsequent effects on adult occupational choices, the authors of this study examined associations among childhood personality traits, gender, and occupational environments more than 40 years later. Participants (N = 587) were…

Predictive value of impaired evacuation at proctography in diagnosing anismus.

PubMed

Halligan, S; Malouf, A; Bartram, C I; Marshall, M; Hollings, N; Kamm, M A

2001-09-01

We aimed to determine the positive predictive value of impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography for the subsequent diagnosis of anismus. Thirty-one adults with signs of impaired evacuation (defined as the inability to evacuate two thirds of a 120 mL contrast enema within 30 sec) during evacuation proctography underwent subsequent anorectal physiologic testing for anismus. A physiologic diagnosis of anismus was based on a typical clinical history of the condition combined with impaired rectal balloon expulsion or abnormal surface electromyogram. Twenty-eight (90%) of the 31 patients with impaired proctographic evacuation were found to have anismus at subsequent physiologic testing. Among the 28 were all 10 patients who evacuated no contrast medium and all 11 patients with inadequate pelvic floor descent, giving evacuation proctography a positive predictive value of 90% for the diagnosis of anismus. A prominent puborectal impression was seen in only three subjects during proctography, one of whom subsequently showed no physiologic sign of anismus. Impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography is highly predictive for diagnosis of anismus.

Circulating asymmetric dimethylarginine and the risk of preeclampsia: a meta-analysis based on 1338 participants.

PubMed

Yuan, Jing; Wang, Xinguo; Xie, Yudou; Wang, Yuzhi; Dong, Lei; Li, Hong; Zhu, Tongyu

2017-07-04

Patients with preeclampsia have higher circulating asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA). However, whether circulating ADMA is elevated before the diagnosis of preeclampsia has not been determined. A meta-analysis of observational studies that reported circulating ADMA level before the onset of preeclampsia was performed. Pubmed and Embase were searched. Standardized mean differences (SMD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to estimate the differences in circulating ADMA. A random effect model or a fixed effect model was applied depending on the heterogeneity. The predictive efficacy of circulating ADMA for the incidence of preeclampsia was also explored. Eleven comparisons with 1338 pregnant women were included. The pooled results showed that the circulating ADMA was significantly higher in women who subsequently developed preeclampsia as compared with those did not (SMD: 0.71, p < 0.001) with a moderate heterogeneity (I2 = 43%). Stratified analyses suggested elevation of circulating ADMA is more remarkable in studies with GA of ADMA sampling ≥ 20 weeks (SMD: 0.89, p < 0.01) as compared those with GA of ADMA sampling < 20 weeks (SMD: 0.56, p < 0.01; p for subgroup interaction = 0.03). Differences of maternal age, study design, and ADMA measurement methods did not significantly affect the results. Only two studies evaluated the potential predicting ability of circulating ADMA for subsequent preeclampsia, and retrieved moderate predictive efficacy. Circulating ADMA is elevated before the development of preeclampsia. Studies are needed to evaluate the predictive efficacy of ADMA for the incidence of preeclampsia.

Positive thinking about the future in newspaper reports and presidential addresses predicts economic downturn.

PubMed

Sevincer, A Timur; Wagner, Greta; Kalvelage, Johanna; Oettingen, Gabriele

2014-04-01

Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis.

The role of microstructure and phase distribution in the failure mechanisms and life prediction model for PSZ coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sisson, R. D., Jr.; Sone, Ichiro; Biederman, R. R.

1985-01-01

Partially Stabilized Zirconia (PSZ) may become widely used for Thermal Barrier Coatings (TBC). Failure of these coatings can occur due to thermal fatigue in oxidizing atmospheres. The failure is due to the strains that develop due to thermal gradients, differences in thermal expansion coefficients, and oxidation of the bond coating. The role of microstructure and the cubic, tetragonal, and monoclinic phase distribution in the strain development and subsequent failure will be discussed. An X-ray diffraction technique for accurate determination of the fraction of each phase in PSZ will be applied to understanding the phase transformations and strain development. These results will be discussed in terms of developing a model for life prediction in PSZ coatings during thermal cycling.

Do fertility intentions predict subsequent behavior? Evidence from Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Tan, P C; Tey, N P

1994-01-01

Data from the 1984 Malaysian Population and Family Survey were matched with birth registration records for 1985-87 to determine the accuracy of statements regarding desired family size that were reported in a household survey in predicting subsequent reproductive behavior. The findings of this study were that stated fertility intention provides fairly accurate forecasts of fertility behavior in the subsequent period. In other words, whether a woman has another child is predicted closely by whether she wanted an additional child. Informational, educational, and motivational activities of family planning programs would, therefore, have greater success in reducing family size if fertility intentions were taken into account.

Study of journal bearing dynamics using 3-dimensional motion picture graphics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brewe, D. E.; Sosoka, D. J.

1985-01-01

Computer generated motion pictures of three dimensional graphics are being used to analyze journal bearings under dynamically loaded conditions. The motion pictures simultaneously present the motion of the journal and the pressures predicted within the fluid film of the bearing as they evolve in time. The correct prediction of these fluid film pressures can be complicated by the development of cavitation within the fluid. The numerical model that is used predicts the formation of the cavitation bubble and its growth, downstream movement, and subsequent collapse. A complete physical picture is created in the motion picture as the journal traverses through the entire dynamic cycle.

Transactional Relations Between Marital Functioning and Depressive Symptoms

PubMed Central

Kouros, Chrystyna D.; Cummings, E. Mark

2012-01-01

The present study investigated dynamic, longitudinal associations between depressive symptoms and marital processes. Two hundred ninety-six couples reported on marital satisfaction, marital conflict, and depressive symptoms yearly for three years. Observational measures of marital conflict were also collected. Results suggested that different domains of marital functioning related to husbands’ versus wives’ symptoms. For husbands, transactional relations between marital satisfaction and depressive symptoms were identified: high levels of depressive symptoms predicted subsequent decreases in marital satisfaction, and decreased marital satisfaction predicted subsequent elevations in symptoms over time. For wives, high levels of marital conflict predicted subsequent elevations in symptoms over time. Cross-partner results indicated that husbands’ depressive symptoms were also related to subsequent declines in wives’ marital satisfaction. Results are discussed with regard to theoretical perspectives on the marital functioning-depression link and directions for future research are outlined. PMID:21219284

Bidirectional-Compounding Effects of Rumination and Negative Emotion in Predicting Impulsive Behavior: Implications for Emotional Cascades.

PubMed

Selby, Edward A; Kranzler, Amy; Panza, Emily; Fehling, Kara B

2016-04-01

Influenced by chaos theory, the emotional cascade model proposes that rumination and negative emotion may promote each other in a self-amplifying cycle that increases over time. Accordingly, exponential-compounding effects may better describe the relationship between rumination and negative emotion when they occur in impulsive persons, and predict impulsive behavior. Forty-seven community and undergraduate participants who reported frequent engagement in impulsive behaviors monitored their ruminative thoughts and negative emotion multiple times daily for two weeks using digital recording devices. Hypotheses were tested using cross-lagged mixed model analyses. Findings indicated that rumination predicted subsequent elevations in rumination that lasted over extended periods of time. Rumination and negative emotion predicted increased levels of each other at subsequent assessments, and exponential functions for these associations were supported. Results also supported a synergistic effect between rumination and negative emotion, predicting larger elevations in subsequent rumination and negative emotion than when one variable alone was elevated. Finally, there were synergistic effects of rumination and negative emotion in predicting number of impulsive behaviors subsequently reported. These findings are consistent with the emotional cascade model in suggesting that momentary rumination and negative emotion progressively propagate and magnify each other over time in impulsive people, promoting impulsive behavior. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Temporal Sequence of Social Anxiety and Depressive Symptoms following Interpersonal Stressors during Adolescence

PubMed Central

Hamilton, Jessica L.; Potter, Carrie M.; Olino, Thomas M.; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Heimberg, Richard G.; Alloy, Lauren B.

2015-01-01

Social anxiety and depressive symptoms dramatically increase and frequently co-occur during adolescence. Although research indicates that general interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and familial emotional maltreatment predict symptoms of social anxiety and depression, it remains unclear how these stressors contribute to the sequential development of these internalizing symptoms. Thus, the present study examined the sequential development of social anxiety and depressive symptoms following the occurrence of interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and familial emotional maltreatment. Participants included 410 early adolescents (53% female; 51% African American; Mean age =12.84 years) who completed measures of social anxiety and depressive symptoms at three time points (Times 1–3), as well as measures of general interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and emotional maltreatment at Time 2. Path analyses revealed that interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and emotional maltreatment predicted both depressive and social anxiety symptoms concurrently. However, depressive symptoms significantly mediated the pathway from interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and familial emotional maltreatment to subsequent levels of social anxiety symptoms. In contrast, social anxiety did not mediate the relationship between these stressors and subsequent depressive symptoms. There was no evidence of sex or racial differences in these mediational pathways. Findings suggest that interpersonal stressors, including the particularly detrimental stressors of peer victimization and familial emotional maltreatment, may predict both depressive and social anxiety symptoms; however, adolescents who have more immediate depressogenic reactions may be at greater risk for later development of symptoms of social anxiety. PMID:26142495

The Temporal Sequence of Social Anxiety and Depressive Symptoms Following Interpersonal Stressors During Adolescence.

PubMed

Hamilton, Jessica L; Potter, Carrie M; Olino, Thomas M; Abramson, Lyn Y; Heimberg, Richard G; Alloy, Lauren B

2016-04-01

Social anxiety and depressive symptoms dramatically increase and frequently co-occur during adolescence. Although research indicates that general interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and familial emotional maltreatment predict symptoms of social anxiety and depression, it remains unclear how these stressors contribute to the sequential development of these internalizing symptoms. Thus, the present study examined the sequential development of social anxiety and depressive symptoms following the occurrence of interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and familial emotional maltreatment. Participants included 410 early adolescents (53% female; 51% African American; Mean age =12.84 years) who completed measures of social anxiety and depressive symptoms at three time points (Times 1-3), as well as measures of general interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and emotional maltreatment at Time 2. Path analyses revealed that interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and emotional maltreatment predicted both depressive and social anxiety symptoms concurrently. However, depressive symptoms significantly mediated the pathway from interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and familial emotional maltreatment to subsequent levels of social anxiety symptoms. In contrast, social anxiety did not mediate the relationship between these stressors and subsequent depressive symptoms. There was no evidence of sex or racial differences in these mediational pathways. Findings suggest that interpersonal stressors, including the particularly detrimental stressors of peer victimization and familial emotional maltreatment, may predict both depressive and social anxiety symptoms; however, adolescents who have more immediate depressogenic reactions may be at greater risk for later development of symptoms of social anxiety.

Predicting Default from Smoking Cessation Treatment Following Enrolment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Challenger, Alison; Coleman, Tim; Lewis, Sarah

2007-01-01

Objective: To determine which factors predict default from subsequent treatment sessions after initial enrolment and attendance at a large, English smoking cessation service. Design: Cross-sectional survey using data obtained at smokers' initial enrolment attendance to compare the characteristics of those who subsequently default with those who do…

Age at First Concussion Influences the Number of Subsequent Concussions.

PubMed

Schmidt, Julianne D; Rizzone, Katherine; Hoffman, Nicole L; Weber, Michelle L; Jones, Courtney; Bazarian, Jeff; Broglio, Steven P; McCrea, Michael; McAllister, Thomas W

2018-04-01

Individuals who sustain their first concussion during childhood may be at greater risk of sustaining multiple concussions throughout their lifetime because of a longer window of vulnerability. This article aims to estimate the association between age at first concussion and number of subsequent concussions. A total of 23,582 collegiate athletes from 26 universities and military cadets from three military academies completed a concussion history questionnaire (65% males, age 19.9 ± 1.4 years). Participants self-reported concussions and age at time of each injury. Participants with a history of concussion (n = 3,647, 15.5%) were categorized as having sustained their first concussion during childhood (less than ten years old) or adolescence (≥10 and ≤18 years old). Poisson regression was used to model age group (childhood, adolescence) predicting the number of subsequent concussions (0, 1, 2+). A second Poisson regression was developed to determine whether age at first concussion predicted the number of subsequent concussions. Participants self-reporting their first concussion during childhood had an increased risk of subsequent concussions (rate ratio = 2.19, 95% confidence interval: 1.82, 2.64) compared with participants self-reporting their first concussion during adolescence. For every one-year increase in age at first concussion, we observed a 16% reduction in the risk of subsequent concussion (rate ratio = 0.84, 95% confidence interval: 0.82, 0.86). Individuals self-reporting a concussion at a young age sustained a higher number of concussions before age 18. Concussion prevention, recognition, and reporting strategies are of particular need at the youth level. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies: application to regional drought processes in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhenchen; Lu, Guihua; He, Hai; Wu, Zhiyong; He, Jian

2018-01-01

Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for water resource managers to develop and implement drought mitigation measures. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatial-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we developed a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies (SAs). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is first applied to drought-related SAs at 200 and 500 hPa geopotential height (HGT) and sea surface temperature (SST). Subsequently, SA-based predictors are built based on the spatial pattern of the first EOF modes. This drought prediction model is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric-oceanic SA-based predictors and SPI3 (3-month standardized precipitation index), calibrated using a simple stepwise regression method. Predictor computation is based on forecast atmospheric-oceanic products retrieved from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), indicating the lead time of the model depends on that of CFSv2. The model can make seamless drought predictions for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Model application to four recent severe regional drought processes in China indicates its good performance in predicting seasonal drought development, despite its weakness in predicting drought severity. Overall, the model can be a worthy reference for seasonal water resource management in China.

High Resolution PET Imaging Probe for the Detection, Molecular Characterization and Treatment Monitoring of Prostate Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-01

Jitter results from electronic noise and from the fact that the shape of the detector signal used for timing can vary considerably depending on the...photomultiplier technology, several “probe” detectors were developed. It was predicted, and subsequently shown, that probes having good position...high spatial resolution for prostate imaging. Practical proof-of-concept detectors with good depth-of-interactions resolution have been developed and

Induced Innovation and Social Inequality: Evidence from Infant Medical Care.

PubMed

Cutler, David M; Meara, Ellen; Richards-Shubik, Seth

2012-01-01

We develop a model of induced innovation that applies to medical research. Our model yields three empirical predictions. First, initial death rates and subsequent research effort should be positively correlated. Second, research effort should be associated with more rapid mortality declines. Third, as a byproduct of targeting the most common conditions in the population as a whole, induced innovation leads to growth in mortality disparities between minority and majority groups. Using information on infant deaths in the U.S. between 1983 and 1998, we find support for all three empirical predictions.

Idea density measured in late life predicts subsequent cognitive trajectories: implications for the measurement of cognitive reserve.

PubMed

Farias, Sarah Tomaszewski; Chand, Vineeta; Bonnici, Lisa; Baynes, Kathleen; Harvey, Danielle; Mungas, Dan; Simon, Christa; Reed, Bruce

2012-11-01

The Nun Study showed that lower linguistic ability in young adulthood, measured by idea density (ID), increased the risk of dementia in late life. The present study examined whether ID measured in late life continues to predict the trajectory of cognitive change. ID was measured in 81 older adults who were followed longitudinally for an average of 4.3 years. Changes in global cognition and 4 specific neuropsychological domains (episodic memory, semantic memory, spatial abilities, and executive function) were examined as outcomes. Separate random effects models tested the effect of ID on longitudinal change in outcomes, adjusted for age and education. Lower ID was associated with greater subsequent decline in global cognition, semantic memory, episodic memory, and spatial abilities. When analysis was restricted to only participants without dementia at the time ID was collected, results were similar. Linguistic ability in young adulthood, as measured by ID, has been previously proposed as an index of neurocognitive development and/or cognitive reserve. The present study provides evidence that even when ID is measured in old age, it continues to be associated with subsequent cognitive decline and as such may continue to provide a marker of cognitive reserve.

Affective Determinants of Anxiety and Depression Development in Children and Adolescents: An Individual Growth Curve Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Bolle, Marleen; De Clercq, Barbara; Decuyper, Mieke; De Fruyt, Filip

2011-01-01

The tripartite model (in Clark and Watson, "J Abnorm Psychol" 100:316-336, 1991) comprises Negative Affect (NA), Positive Affect (PA), and Physiological Hyperarousal (PH), three temperamental-based dimensions. The current study examined the tripartite model's assumptions that (a) NA interacts with PA to predict subsequent depressive (but not…

Factors Influencing Student Prerequisite Preparation for and Subsequent Performance in College Chemistry Two: A Statistical Investigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Easter, David C.

2010-01-01

For students entering Chemistry Two following a Chemistry One course, an assessment exam was given and the results were evaluated in combination with other variables to develop a predictive model that forecasts student achievement in the course. Variables considered in the analysis included student major, GPA, classification (student standing:…

Thought Disorder and Communication Deviance as Predictors of Outcome in Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bearden, Carrie E.; Wu, Keng Nei; Caplan, Rochelle; Cannon, Tyrone D.

2011-01-01

Objective: Given the fundamental role of thought disorder in schizophrenia, subtle communication disturbance may be a valuable predictor of subsequent development of psychosis. Here we examined the contribution of thought and communication disturbance to the prediction of outcome in adolescents identified as putatively prodromal for psychosis.…

Factors Affecting Student Progression and Achievement: Prediction and Intervention. A Two-Year Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lowis, Mike; Castley, Andrew

2008-01-01

First-year student dropout in the university sector can reach 20% or higher. Over a two-year period, a simple instrument was developed to identify potential student low performance and withdrawal. It was based on a measure of students' early expectation of higher education, matched subsequently with their actual experience. The instrument design…

Predicting the cover-up of dead branches using a simple single regressor equation

Treesearch

Christopher M. Oswalt; Wayne K. Clatterbuck; E.C. Burkhardt

2007-01-01

Information on the effects of branch diameter on branch occlusion is necessary for building models capable of forecasting the effect of management decisions on tree or log grade. We investigated the relationship between branch size and subsequent branch occlusion through diameter growth with special attention toward the development of a simple single regressor equation...

Biomarkers of World Trade Center Particulate Matter Exposure: Physiology of distal airway and blood biomarkers that predict FEV1 decline

PubMed Central

Weiden, Michael D.; Kwon, Sophia; Caraher, Erin; Berger, Kenneth I.; Reibman, Joan; Rom, William N.; Prezant, David J.; Nolan, Anna

2016-01-01

Biomarkers can be important predictors of disease severity and progression. The intense exposure to particulates and other toxins from the destruction of the World Trade Center (WTC) overwhelmed the lung’s normal protective barriers. The Fire Department of New York (FDNY) cohort not only had baseline pre-exposure lung function measures but also had serum samples banked soon after their WTC exposure. This well phenotyped group of highly exposed first responders is an ideal cohort for biomarker discovery and eventual validation. Disease progression was heterogeneous in this group in that some individuals subsequently developed abnormal lung function while others recovered. Airflow obstruction predominated in WTC exposed patients who were symptomatic. Multiple independent disease pathways may cause this abnormal FEV1 after irritant exposure. WTC exposure activates one or more of these pathways causing abnormal FEV1 in an individual. Our hypothesis was that serum biomarkers expressed within 6 months after World Trade Center (WTC) exposure reflect active disease pathways and predict subsequent development or protection from abnormal FEV1

Neural correlates of encoding processes predicting subsequent cued recall and source memory.

PubMed

Angel, Lucie; Isingrini, Michel; Bouazzaoui, Badiâa; Fay, Séverine

2013-03-06

In this experiment, event-related potentials were used to examine whether the neural correlates of encoding processes predicting subsequent successful recall differed from those predicting successful source memory retrieval. During encoding, participants studied lists of words and were instructed to memorize each word and the list in which it occurred. At test, they had to complete stems (the first four letters) with a studied word and then make a judgment of the initial temporal context (i.e. list). Event-related potentials recorded during encoding were segregated according to subsequent memory performance to examine subsequent memory effects (SMEs) reflecting successful cued recall (cued recall SME) and successful source retrieval (source memory SME). Data showed a cued recall SME on parietal electrode sites from 400 to 1200 ms and a late inversed cued recall SME on frontal sites in the 1200-1400 ms period. Moreover, a source memory SME was reported from 400 to 1400 ms on frontal areas. These findings indicate that patterns of encoding-related activity predicting successful recall and source memory are clearly dissociated.

Development and Validation of a Risk Model for Prediction of Hazardous Alcohol Consumption in General Practice Attendees: The PredictAL Study

PubMed Central

King, Michael; Marston, Louise; Švab, Igor; Maaroos, Heidi-Ingrid; Geerlings, Mirjam I.; Xavier, Miguel; Benjamin, Vicente; Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco; Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel; Rotar, Danica; Aluoja, Anu; Saldivia, Sandra; Correa, Bernardo; Nazareth, Irwin

2011-01-01

Background Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women. Results 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse. PMID:21853028

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

PubMed

King, Michael; Marston, Louise; Švab, Igor; Maaroos, Heidi-Ingrid; Geerlings, Mirjam I; Xavier, Miguel; Benjamin, Vicente; Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco; Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel; Rotar, Danica; Aluoja, Anu; Saldivia, Sandra; Correa, Bernardo; Nazareth, Irwin

2011-01-01

Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women. 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Bootstrap Prediction Intervals in Non-Parametric Regression with Applications to Anomaly Detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Sricharan; Srivistava, Ashok N.

2012-01-01

Prediction intervals provide a measure of the probable interval in which the outputs of a regression model can be expected to occur. Subsequently, these prediction intervals can be used to determine if the observed output is anomalous or not, conditioned on the input. In this paper, a procedure for determining prediction intervals for outputs of nonparametric regression models using bootstrap methods is proposed. Bootstrap methods allow for a non-parametric approach to computing prediction intervals with no specific assumptions about the sampling distribution of the noise or the data. The asymptotic fidelity of the proposed prediction intervals is theoretically proved. Subsequently, the validity of the bootstrap based prediction intervals is illustrated via simulations. Finally, the bootstrap prediction intervals are applied to the problem of anomaly detection on aviation data.

Lifetime mental disorders and suicidal behaviour in South Africa.

PubMed

Khasakhala, L; Sorsdahl, K R; Harder, V S; Williams, D R; Stein, D J; Ndetei, D M

2011-05-01

There is relatively little data on the relationship between lifetime mental disorders and suicidal behaviour in low and middle income countries. This study examines the relationship between lifetime mental disorders, and subsequent suicide ideation, plans, and suicide attempts in South Africa. A national survey of 4185 South African adults was conducted using the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) to generate psychiatric diagnoses and suicidal behaviour. Bivariate, multivariate and discrete-time survival analyses were employed to investigate the associations between mental disorders and subsequent suicide ideation, plans, and attempts. Sixty-one percent of people who seriously considered killing themselves at some point in their lifetime reported having a prior DSM-IV disorder. Mental disorders predict the onset of suicidal ideation, but have weaker effects in predicting suicide plans or attempts. After controlling for comorbid mental disorders, PTSD was the strongest predictor of suicidal ideation and attempts. There is a relationship between number of mental disorders and suicidal behaviour, with comorbidity having significantly sub-additive effects. Consistent with data from the developed world, mental disorders are strong predictors of suicidal behaviour, and these associations are more often explained by the prediction of ideation, rather than the prediction of attempts amongst ideators. This suggests some universality of the relevant mechanisms underlying the genesis of suicidal thoughts, and the progression to suicide attempts.

Automatic Tube Compensation versus Pressure Support Ventilation and Extubation Outcome in Children: A Randomized Controlled Study

PubMed Central

El-beleidy, Ahmed Saad El-din; Khattab, Asser Abd EL-Hamied; El-Sherbini, Seham Awad; Al-gebaly, Hebatalla Fadel

2013-01-01

Background. Automatic tube compensation (ATC) has been developed to overcome the imposed work of breathing due to artificial airways during spontaneous breathing trials (SBTs). Objectives. This study aimed to assess extubation outcome after an SBT (spontaneous breathing trial) with ATC compared with pressure support ventilation (PSV) and to determine the risk factors for extubation failure. Methods. Patients ready for extubation were randomly assigned to two-hour spontaneous breathing trial with either ATC or pressure support ventilation. Results. In the ATC group (n = 17), 11 (65%) patients passed the SBT with subsequent extubation failure (9%). While in PSV group (n = 19), 10 (53%) patients passed the SBT with subsequent extubation failure (10%). This represented a positive predictive value for ATC of 91% and PSV of 90% (P = 0.52). Five (83%) of the patients who failed the SBT in ATC group were reintubated. This represented a higher negative predictive value for ATC of 83% than for PSV which was 56%. None of the assessed risk factors were independently associated with extubation failure including failed trial. Conclusion. ATC was equivalent to PSV in predicting patients with successful extubation. A trial failure in ATC group is associated with but does not definitely predict extubation failure. PMID:23533800

Parent-child interaction over time in families of young children with borderline intellectual functioning.

PubMed

Fenning, Rachel M; Baker, Jason K; Baker, Bruce L; Crnic, Keith A

2014-06-01

A previous study suggested that mothers of 5-year-old children with borderline intellectual functioning displayed lower positive engagement with their children as compared with both mothers of typically developing children and mothers of children with significant developmental delays (Fenning, Baker, Baker, & Crnic, 2007). The current study integrated father data and followed these families over the subsequent 1-year period. Parent and child behavior were coded from naturalistic home observations at both waves. Results revealed that mothers of children with borderline intellectual functioning displayed a greater increase in negative-controlling parenting from child age 5 to 6 than did other mothers; fathers displayed more negative-controlling behavior in comparison to fathers of typically developing children. In addition, children with borderline intellectual functioning themselves exhibited a more significant escalation in difficult behavior than did typically developing children. Cross-lagged analyses for the sample as a whole indicated that maternal negative-controlling behavior predicted subsequent child difficulties, whereas negative paternal behavior was predicted by earlier child behavior. In conjunction with evidence from Fenning et al. (2007), these findings suggest a complex, dynamic, and systemic developmental pattern in the emotional behavior of families of children with borderline intellectual functioning. Implications and areas in need of additional research are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Posterior and prefrontal contributions to the development posttraumatic stress disorder symptom severity: an fMRI study of symptom provocation in acute stress disorder.

PubMed

Cwik, Jan C; Sartory, Gudrun; Nuyken, Malte; Schürholt, Benjamin; Seitz, Rüdiger J

2017-09-01

Acute stress disorder (ASD) is predictive of the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). In response to symptom provocation, the exposure to trauma-related pictures, ASD patients showed increased activation of the medial posterior areas of precuneus and posterior cingulate cortex as well as of superior prefrontal cortex in a previous study. The current study aimed at investigating which activated areas are predictive of the development of PTSD. Nineteen ASD patients took part in an fMRI study in which they were shown personalized trauma-related and neutral pictures within 4 weeks of the traumatic event. They were assessed for severity of PTSD 4 weeks later. Activation contrasts between trauma-related and neutral pictures were correlated with subsequent PTSD symptom severity. Greater activation in, among others, right medial precuneus, left retrosplenial cortex, precentral and right superior temporal gyrus as well as less activation in lateral, superior prefrontal and left fusiform gyrus was related to subsequently increased PTSD severity. The results are broadly in line with neural areas related to etiological models of PTSD, namely multisensory associative learning recruiting posterior regions on the one hand and failure to reappraise maladaptive cognitions, thought to involve prefrontal areas, on the other.

High-grade extremity soft tissue sarcomas: factors predictive of local recurrence and its effect on morbidity and mortality.

PubMed

Eilber, Fritz C; Rosen, Gerald; Nelson, Scott D; Selch, Michael; Dorey, Frederick; Eckardt, Jeffery; Eilber, Frederick R

2003-02-01

To identify patient characteristics associated with the development of local recurrence and the effect of local recurrence on subsequent morbidity and mortality in patients with intermediate- to high-grade extremity soft tissue sarcomas. Numerous studies on extremity soft tissue sarcomas have consistently shown that presentation with locally recurrent disease is associated with the development of subsequent local recurrences and that large tumor size and high histologic grade are significant factors associated with decreased survival. However, the effect of local recurrence on patient survival remains unclear. From 1975 to 1997, 753 patients with intermediate- to high-grade extremity soft tissue sarcomas were treated at UCLA. Treatment outcomes and patient characteristics were analyzed to identify factors associated with both local recurrence and survival. Patients with locally recurrent disease were at a significantly increased risk of developing a subsequent local recurrence. Local recurrence was a morbid event requiring amputation in 38% of the cases. The development of a local recurrence was the most significant factor associated with decreased survival. Once a patient developed a local recurrence, he or she was about three times more likely to die of disease compared to similar patients who had not developed a local recurrence. Local recurrence in patients with intermediate- to high-grade extremity soft tissue sarcomas is associated with the development of subsequent local recurrences, a morbid event decreasing functional outcomes and the most significant factor associated with decreased survival. Although 85% to 90% of patients with high-grade extremity soft tissue sarcomas are treatable with a limb salvage approach, patients who develop a local recurrence need aggressive treatment and should be considered for trials of adjuvant systemic therapy.

RANdom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC) algorithm for material-informatics: application to photovoltaic solar cells.

PubMed

Kaspi, Omer; Yosipof, Abraham; Senderowitz, Hanoch

2017-06-06

An important aspect of chemoinformatics and material-informatics is the usage of machine learning algorithms to build Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) models. The RANdom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC) algorithm is a predictive modeling tool widely used in the image processing field for cleaning datasets from noise. RANSAC could be used as a "one stop shop" algorithm for developing and validating QSAR models, performing outlier removal, descriptors selection, model development and predictions for test set samples using applicability domain. For "future" predictions (i.e., for samples not included in the original test set) RANSAC provides a statistical estimate for the probability of obtaining reliable predictions, i.e., predictions within a pre-defined number of standard deviations from the true values. In this work we describe the first application of RNASAC in material informatics, focusing on the analysis of solar cells. We demonstrate that for three datasets representing different metal oxide (MO) based solar cell libraries RANSAC-derived models select descriptors previously shown to correlate with key photovoltaic properties and lead to good predictive statistics for these properties. These models were subsequently used to predict the properties of virtual solar cells libraries highlighting interesting dependencies of PV properties on MO compositions.

Prediction of Tensile Strength of Friction Stir Weld Joints with Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Neural Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dewan, Mohammad W.; Huggett, Daniel J.; Liao, T. Warren; Wahab, Muhammad A.; Okeil, Ayman M.

2015-01-01

Friction-stir-welding (FSW) is a solid-state joining process where joint properties are dependent on welding process parameters. In the current study three critical process parameters including spindle speed (??), plunge force (????), and welding speed (??) are considered key factors in the determination of ultimate tensile strength (UTS) of welded aluminum alloy joints. A total of 73 weld schedules were welded and tensile properties were subsequently obtained experimentally. It is observed that all three process parameters have direct influence on UTS of the welded joints. Utilizing experimental data, an optimized adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model has been developed to predict UTS of FSW joints. A total of 1200 models were developed by varying the number of membership functions (MFs), type of MFs, and combination of four input variables (??,??,????,??????) utilizing a MATLAB platform. Note EFI denotes an empirical force index derived from the three process parameters. For comparison, optimized artificial neural network (ANN) models were also developed to predict UTS from FSW process parameters. By comparing ANFIS and ANN predicted results, it was found that optimized ANFIS models provide better results than ANN. This newly developed best ANFIS model could be utilized for prediction of UTS of FSW joints.

A user-friendly model for spray drying to aid pharmaceutical product development.

PubMed

Grasmeijer, Niels; de Waard, Hans; Hinrichs, Wouter L J; Frijlink, Henderik W

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop a user-friendly model for spray drying that can aid in the development of a pharmaceutical product, by shifting from a trial-and-error towards a quality-by-design approach. To achieve this, a spray dryer model was developed in commercial and open source spreadsheet software. The output of the model was first fitted to the experimental output of a Büchi B-290 spray dryer and subsequently validated. The predicted outlet temperatures of the spray dryer model matched the experimental values very well over the entire range of spray dryer settings that were tested. Finally, the model was applied to produce glassy sugars by spray drying, an often used excipient in formulations of biopharmaceuticals. For the production of glassy sugars, the model was extended to predict the relative humidity at the outlet, which is not measured in the spray dryer by default. This extended model was then successfully used to predict whether specific settings were suitable for producing glassy trehalose and inulin by spray drying. In conclusion, a spray dryer model was developed that is able to predict the output parameters of the spray drying process. The model can aid the development of spray dried pharmaceutical products by shifting from a trial-and-error towards a quality-by-design approach.

Exposure to unpredictable maternal sensory signals influences cognitive development across species.

PubMed

Davis, Elysia Poggi; Stout, Stephanie A; Molet, Jenny; Vegetabile, Brian; Glynn, Laura M; Sandman, Curt A; Heins, Kevin; Stern, Hal; Baram, Tallie Z

2017-09-26

Maternal care is a critical determinant of child development. However, our understanding of processes and mechanisms by which maternal behavior influences the developing human brain remains limited. Animal research has illustrated that patterns of sensory information is important in shaping neural circuits during development. Here we examined the relation between degree of predictability of maternal sensory signals early in life and subsequent cognitive function in both humans ( n = 128 mother/infant dyads) and rats ( n = 12 dams; 28 adolescents). Behaviors of mothers interacting with their offspring were observed in both species, and an entropy rate was calculated as a quantitative measure of degree of predictability of transitions among maternal sensory signals (visual, auditory, and tactile). Human cognitive function was assessed at age 2 y with the Bayley Scales of Infant Development and at age 6.5 y with a hippocampus-dependent delayed-recall task. Rat hippocampus-dependent spatial memory was evaluated on postnatal days 49-60. Early life exposure to unpredictable sensory signals portended poor cognitive performance in both species. The present study provides evidence that predictability of maternal sensory signals early in life impacts cognitive function in both rats and humans. The parallel between experimental animal and observational human data lends support to the argument that predictability of maternal sensory signals causally influences cognitive development.

Evolutionary dynamics of selfish DNA explains the abundance distribution of genomic subsequences

PubMed Central

Sheinman, Michael; Ramisch, Anna; Massip, Florian; Arndt, Peter F.

2016-01-01

Since the sequencing of large genomes, many statistical features of their sequences have been found. One intriguing feature is that certain subsequences are much more abundant than others. In fact, abundances of subsequences of a given length are distributed with a scale-free power-law tail, resembling properties of human texts, such as Zipf’s law. Despite recent efforts, the understanding of this phenomenon is still lacking. Here we find that selfish DNA elements, such as those belonging to the Alu family of repeats, dominate the power-law tail. Interestingly, for the Alu elements the power-law exponent increases with the length of the considered subsequences. Motivated by these observations, we develop a model of selfish DNA expansion. The predictions of this model qualitatively and quantitatively agree with the empirical observations. This allows us to estimate parameters for the process of selfish DNA spreading in a genome during its evolution. The obtained results shed light on how evolution of selfish DNA elements shapes non-trivial statistical properties of genomes. PMID:27488939

First-cycle blood counts and subsequent neutropenia, dose reduction, or delay in early-stage breast cancer therapy.

PubMed

Silber, J H; Fridman, M; DiPaola, R S; Erder, M H; Pauly, M V; Fox, K R

1998-07-01

If patients could be ranked according to their projected need for supportive care therapy, then more efficient and less costly treatment algorithms might be developed. This work reports on the construction of a model of neutropenia, dose reduction, or delay that rank-orders patients according to their need for costly supportive care such as granulocyte growth factors. A case series and consecutive sample of patients treated for breast cancer were studied. Patients had received standard-dose adjuvant chemotherapy for early-stage nonmetastatic breast cancer and were treated by four medical oncologists. Using 95 patients and validated with 80 additional patients, development models were constructed to predict one or more of the following events: neutropenia (absolute neutrophil count [ANC] < or = 250/microL), dose reduction > or = 15% of that scheduled, or treatment delay > or = 7 days. Two approaches to modeling were attempted. The pretreatment approach used only pretreatment predictors such as chemotherapy regimen and radiation history; the conditional approach included, in addition, blood count information obtained in the first cycle of treatment. The pretreatment model was unsuccessful at predicting neutropenia, dose reduction, or delay (c-statistic = 0.63). Conditional models were good predictors of subsequent events after cycle 1 (c-statistic = 0.87 and 0.78 for development and validation samples, respectively). The depth of the first-cycle ANC was an excellent predictor of events in subsequent cycles (P = .0001 to .004). Chemotherapy plus radiation also increased the risk of subsequent events (P = .0011 to .0901). Decline in hemoglobin (HGB) level during the first cycle of therapy was a significant predictor of events in the development study (P = .0074 and .0015), and although the trend was similar in the validation study, HGB decline failed to reach statistical significance. It is possible to rank patients according to their need of supportive care based on blood counts observed in the first cycle of therapy. Such rankings may aid in the choice of appropriate supportive care for patients with early-stage breast cancer.

Aging Theories for Establishing Safe Life Spans of Airborne Critical Structural Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, William L.

2003-01-01

New aging theories have been developed to establish the safe life span of airborne critical structural components such as B-52B aircraft pylon hooks for carrying air-launch drop-test vehicles. The new aging theories use the equivalent-constant-amplitude loading spectrum to represent the actual random loading spectrum with the same damaging effect. The crack growth due to random loading cycling of the first flight is calculated using the half-cycle theory, and then extrapolated to all the crack growths of the subsequent flights. The predictions of the new aging theories (finite difference aging theory and closed-form aging theory) are compared with the classical flight-test life theory and the previously developed Ko first- and Ko second-order aging theories. The new aging theories predict the number of safe flights as considerably lower than that predicted by the classical aging theory, and slightly lower than those predicted by the Ko first- and Ko second-order aging theories due to the inclusion of all the higher order terms.

Preventing the transmission of pathogenic mitochondrial DNA mutations: Can we achieve long-term benefits from germ-line gene transfer?

PubMed

Samuels, David C; Wonnapinij, Passorn; Chinnery, Patrick F

2013-03-01

Mitochondrial medicine is one of the few areas of genetic disease where germ-line transfer is being actively pursued as a treatment option. All of the germ-line transfer methods currently under development involve some carry-over of the maternal mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) heteroplasmy, potentially delivering the pathogenic mutation to the offspring. Rapid changes in mtDNA heteroplasmy have been observed within a single generation, and so any 'leakage' of mutant mtDNA could lead to mtDNA disease in future generations, compromising the reproductive health of the first generation, and leading to repeated interventions in subsequent generations. To determine whether this is a real concern, we developed a model of mtDNA heteroplasmy inheritance by studying 87 mother-child pairs, and predicted the likely outcome of different levels of 'mutant mtDNA leakage' on subsequent maternal generations. This showed that, for a clinical threshold of 60%, reducing the proportion of mutant mtDNA to <5% dramatically reduces the chance of disease recurrence in subsequent generations, but transmitting >5% mutant mtDNA was associated with a significant chance of disease recurrence. Mutations with a lower clinical threshold were associated with a higher risk of recurrence. Our findings provide reassurance that, at least from an mtDNA perspective, methods currently under development have the potential to effectively eradicate pathogenic mtDNA mutations from subsequent generations.

A growth inhibitory model with SOx influenced effective growth rate for estimation of algal biomass concentration under flue gas atmosphere

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A theoretical model for the prediction of biomass concentration under real flue gas emission has been developed. The model considers the CO2 mass transfer rate, the critical SOx concentration and its role on pH based inter-conversion of bicarbonate in model building. The calibration and subsequent v...

The Impacts of Intrusive Advising on the Persistence of First-Year Science, Technology, and Mathematics Students Identified Using a Risk Prediction Instrument

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Matthew A.

2013-01-01

Set in a large, urban, public university, this study explores the use of an institutionally specific risk instrument developed to identify students who had a high risk of attrition and the effectiveness of subsequent interventions deployed through advising. Though implemented throughout the institution, this study identified control and treatment…

A Modified Double Multiple Nonlinear Regression Constitutive Equation for Modeling and Prediction of High Temperature Flow Behavior of BFe10-1-2 Alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Jun; Wang, Kuaishe; Shi, Jiamin; Wang, Wen; Liu, Yingying

2018-01-01

Constitutive analysis for hot working of BFe10-1-2 alloy was carried out by using experimental stress-strain data from isothermal hot compression tests, in a wide range of temperature of 1,023 1,273 K, and strain rate range of 0.001 10 s-1. A constitutive equation based on modified double multiple nonlinear regression was proposed considering the independent effects of strain, strain rate, temperature and their interrelation. The predicted flow stress data calculated from the developed equation was compared with the experimental data. Correlation coefficient (R), average absolute relative error (AARE) and relative errors were introduced to verify the validity of the developed constitutive equation. Subsequently, a comparative study was made on the capability of strain-compensated Arrhenius-type constitutive model. The results showed that the developed constitutive equation based on modified double multiple nonlinear regression could predict flow stress of BFe10-1-2 alloy with good correlation and generalization.

Airfoil deposition model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kohl, F. J.

1982-01-01

The methodology to predict deposit evolution (deposition rate and subsequent flow of liquid deposits) as a function of fuel and air impurity content and relevant aerodynamic parameters for turbine airfoils is developed in this research. The spectrum of deposition conditions encountered in gas turbine operations includes the mechanisms of vapor deposition, small particle deposition with thermophoresis, and larger particle deposition with inertial effects. The focus is on using a simplified version of the comprehensive multicomponent vapor diffusion formalism to make deposition predictions for: (1) simple geometry collectors; and (2) gas turbine blade shapes, including both developing laminar and turbulent boundary layers. For the gas turbine blade the insights developed in previous programs are being combined with heat and mass transfer coefficient calculations using the STAN 5 boundary layer code to predict vapor deposition rates and corresponding liquid layer thicknesses on turbine blades. A computer program is being written which utilizes the local values of the calculated deposition rate and skin friction to calculate the increment in liquid condensate layer growth along a collector surface.

Screening frequency and atypical cells and the prediction of cervical cancer risk.

PubMed

Chen, Yun-Yuan; You, San-Lin; Koong, Shin-Lan; Liu, Jessica; Chen, Chi-An; Chen, Chien-Jen

2014-05-01

To evaluate the screening efficacy and importance of atypical squamous cells and atypical glandular cells in predicting subsequent cervical cancer risk. This national cohort study in Taiwan analyzed associations between Pap test screening frequency and findings in 1995-2000 and subsequent risk of squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma after 2002. Women aged 30 years or older in 1995 without a cervical cancer history were included. Multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were assessed using Cox regression analysis. During a total follow-up of 31,693,980 person-years in 2002-2008, 9,471 squamous cell carcinoma and 1,455 adenocarcinoma cases were newly diagnosed, resulting in 2,067 deaths. The risk of developing and dying from squamous cell carcinoma decreased significantly with increasing attendance frequency between 1995 and 2000 (all P values for trend<.001). Women who attended more than three screenings in 1995-2000 had 0.69-fold and 0.35-fold decrease in incidence and mortality of adenocarcinoma, respectively, compared with women who never attended any screenings. Abnormal cytologic findings were significant predictors of the incidence and mortality of cervical cancers. The adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) of developing squamous cell carcinoma was 29.94 (22.83-39.25) for atypical squamous cells, cannot exclude high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions, and the adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) of developing adenocarcinoma was 49.43 (36.49-66.97) for atypical glandular cells. Significant reductions in cervical adenocarcinoma occurred in women who attend three or more annual screenings in 6 years. High-grade atypical squamous cells and atypical glandular cells are important predictors of subsequent adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma. II.

Peer victimization and social alienation: predicting deviant peer affiliation in middle school.

PubMed

Rudolph, Karen D; Lansford, Jennifer E; Agoston, Anna M; Sugimura, Niwako; Schwartz, David; Dodge, Kenneth A; Pettit, Gregory S; Bates, John E

2014-01-01

Two prospective studies examined a theoretical model wherein exposure to victimization, resulting from early behavioral risk, heightens children's social alienation and subsequent deviant peer affiliation (DPA). Across Study 1 (298 girls, 287 boys; K-7th grade; 5-12 years) and Study 2 (338 girls, 298 boys; 2nd-6th grade; 8-12 years), children, parents, peers, and teachers reported on children's externalizing behavior and internalizing symptoms, peer victimization, social alienation, and DPA. Path analyses supported the proposed pathway: Peer victimization predicted social alienation, which then predicted DPA. Early externalizing behavior set this path in motion and made an independent contribution to DPA. This research identifies an important pathway through which externalizing behavior and consequent peer victimization launch children onto a risky social trajectory. © 2013 The Authors. Child Development © 2013 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Electrophysiological correlates of forming memories for faces, names, and face-name associations.

PubMed

Guo, Chunyan; Voss, Joel L; Paller, Ken A

2005-02-01

The ability to put a name to a face is a vital aspect of human interaction, but many people find this extremely difficult, especially after being introduced to someone for the first time. Creating enduring associations between arbitrary stimuli in this manner is also a prime example of what patients with amnesia find most difficult. To help develop a better understanding of this type of memory, we sought to obtain measures of the neural events responsible for successfully forming a new face-name association. We used event-related potentials (ERPs) extracted from high-density scalp EEG recordings in order to compare (1) memory for faces, (2) memory for names, and (3) memory for face-name associations. Each visual face appeared simultaneously with a unique spoken name. Signals observed 200-800 ms after the onset of face-name pairs predicted subsequent memory for faces, names, or face-name associations. Difference potentials observed as a function of subsequent memory performance were not identical for these three memory tests, nor were potentials predicting associative memory equivalent to the sum of potentials predicting item memory, suggesting that different neural events at the time of encoding are relevant for these distinct aspects of remembering people.

Runoff as a factor in USLE/RUSLE technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinnell, Peter

2014-05-01

Modelling erosion for prediction purposes started with the development of the Universal Soil Loss Equation the focus of which was the prediction of long term (~20) average annul soil loss from field sized areas. That purpose has been maintained in the subsequent revision RUSLE, the most widely used erosion prediction model in the world. The lack of ability to predict short term soil loss saw the development of so-called process based models like WEPP and EUROSEM which focussed on predicting event erosion but failed to improve the prediction of long term erosion where the RUSLE worked well. One of the features of erosion recognised in the so-called process based modes is the fact that runoff is a primary factor in rainfall erosion and some modifications of USLE/RUSLE model have been proposed have included runoff as in independent factor in determining event erosivity. However, these models have ignored fundamental mathematical rules. The USLE-M which replaces the EI30 index by the product of the runoff ratio and EI30 was developed from the concept that soil loss is the product of runoff and sediment concentration and operates in a way that obeys the mathematical rules upon which the USLE/RUSLE model was based. In accounts for event soil loss better that the EI30 index where runoff values are known or predicted adequately. RUSLE2 now includes a capacity to model runoff driven erosion.

Environmental exposure effects on composite materials for commercial aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gibbons, M. N.

1982-01-01

The data base for composite materials' properties as they are affected by the environments encountered in operating conditions, both in flight and at ground terminals is expanded. Absorbed moisture degrades the mechanical properties of graphite/epoxy laminates at elevated temperatures. Since airplane components are frequently exposed to atmospheric moisture, rain, and accumulated water, quantitative data are required to evaluate the amount of fluids absorbed under various environmental conditions and the subsequent effects on material properties. In addition, accelerated laboratory test techniques are developed are reliably capable of predicting long term behavior. An accelerated environmental exposure testing procedure is developed, and experimental results are correlated and compared with analytical results to establish the level of confidence for predicting composite material properties.

Insufficient sleep predicts clinical burnout.

PubMed

Söderström, Marie; Jeding, Kerstin; Ekstedt, Mirjam; Perski, Aleksander; Akerstedt, Torbjörn

2012-04-01

The present prospective study aimed to identify risk factors for subsequent clinical burnout. Three hundred eighty-eight working individuals completed a baseline questionnaire regarding work stress, sleep, mood, health, and so forth. During a 2-year period, 15 subjects (7 women and 8 men) of the total sample were identified as "burnout cases," as they were assessed and referred to treatment for clinical burnout. Questionnaire data from the baseline measurement were used as independent variables in a series of logistic regression analyses to predict clinical burnout. The results identified "too little sleep (< 6 h)" as the main risk factor for burnout development, with adjustment for "work demands," "thoughts of work during leisure time," and "sleep quality." The first two factors were significant predictors in earlier steps of the multivariate regression. The results indicate that insufficient sleep, preoccupation with thoughts of work during leisure time, and high work demands are risk factors for subsequent burnout. The results suggest a chain of causation. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Development and validation of a nomogram to estimate the pretest probability of cancer in Chinese patients with solid solitary pulmonary nodules: A multi-institutional study.

PubMed

She, Yunlang; Zhao, Lilan; Dai, Chenyang; Ren, Yijiu; Jiang, Gening; Xie, Huikang; Zhu, Huiyuan; Sun, Xiwen; Yang, Ping; Chen, Yongbing; Shi, Shunbin; Shi, Weirong; Yu, Bing; Xie, Dong; Chen, Chang

2017-11-01

To develop and validate a nomogram to estimate the pretest probability of malignancy in Chinese patients with solid solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN). A primary cohort of 1798 patients with pathologically confirmed solid SPNs after surgery was retrospectively studied at five institutions from January 2014 to December 2015. A nomogram based on independent prediction factors of malignant solid SPN was developed. Predictive performance also was evaluated using the calibration curve and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The mean age of the cohort was 58.9 ± 10.7 years. In univariate and multivariate analysis, age; history of cancer; the log base 10 transformations of serum carcinoembryonic antigen value; nodule diameter; the presence of spiculation, pleural indentation, and calcification remained the predictive factors of malignancy. A nomogram was developed, and the AUC value (0.85; 95%CI, 0.83-0.88) was significantly higher than other three models. The calibration cure showed optimal agreement between the malignant probability as predicted by nomogram and the actual probability. We developed and validated a nomogram that can estimate the pretest probability of malignant solid SPNs, which can assist clinical physicians to select and interpret the results of subsequent diagnostic tests. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dual Pathways from Reactive Aggression to Depressive Symptoms in Children: Further Examination of the Failure Model.

PubMed

Evans, Spencer C; Fite, Paula J

2018-04-13

The failure model posits that peer rejection and poor academic performance are dual pathways in the association between early aggressive behavior and subsequent depressive symptoms. We examined this model using an accelerated longitudinal design while also incorporating proactive and reactive aggression and gender moderation. Children in 1st, 3rd, and 5th grades (n = 912; ages 6-12; 48% female) were rated three times annually by their primary teachers on measures of proactive and reactive aggression, peer rejection, academic performance, and depressive symptoms. Using Bayesian cross-classified estimation to account for nested and planned-missing data, path models were estimated to examine whether early reactive aggression predicted subsequent peer rejection and academic performance, and whether these, in turn, predicted subsequent depressive symptoms. From 1st to 3rd grade, reactive aggression predicted peer rejection (not academic performance), proactive aggression predicted academic performance (not peer rejection), and academic performance and peer rejection both predicted depressive symptoms. From 3rd to 5th grade, however, neither peer rejection nor academic performance predicted subsequent depressive symptoms. Results were not moderated by gender. Overall, these findings provide mixed and limited support for the failure model among school-age children. Early reactive aggression may be a key risk factor for social problems, whereas proactive aggression may be linked to improved academic functioning. The "dual pathways" of peer rejection and academic performance may operate during early but not later elementary school. Limitations and implications are discussed.

Cognitive Impairment Precedes and Predicts Functional Impairment in Mild Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Liu-Seifert, Hong; Siemers, Eric; Price, Karen; Han, Baoguang; Selzler, Katherine J; Henley, David; Sundell, Karen; Aisen, Paul; Cummings, Jeffrey; Raskin, Joel; Mohs, Richard

2015-01-01

The temporal relationship of cognitive deficit and functional impairment in Alzheimer's disease (AD) is not well characterized. Recent analyses suggest cognitive decline predicts subsequent functional decline throughout AD progression. To better understand the relationship between cognitive and functional decline in mild AD using autoregressive cross-lagged (ARCL) panel analyses in several clinical trials. Data included placebo patients with mild AD pooled from two multicenter, double-blind, Phase 3 solanezumab (EXPEDITION/2) or semagacestat (IDENTITY/2) studies, and from AD patients participating in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Cognitive and functional outcomes were assessed using AD Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog), AD Cooperative Study-Activities of Daily Living instrumental subscale (ADCS-iADL), or Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ), respectively. ARCL panel analyses evaluated relationships between cognitive and functional impairment over time. In EXPEDITION, ARCL panel analyses demonstrated cognitive scores significantly predicted future functional impairment at 5 of 6 time points, while functional scores predicted subsequent cognitive scores in only 1 of 6 time points. Data from IDENTITY and ADNI programs yielded consistent results whereby cognition predicted subsequent function, but not vice-versa. Analyses from three databases indicated cognitive decline precedes and predicts subsequent functional decline in mild AD dementia, consistent with previously proposed hypotheses, and corroborate recent publications using similar methodologies. Cognitive impairment may be used as a predictor of future functional impairment in mild AD dementia and can be considered a critical target for prevention strategies to limit future functional decline in the dementia process.

Genetically optimizing weather predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potter, S. B.; Staats, Kai; Romero-Colmenero, Encarni

2016-07-01

humidity, air pressure, wind speed and wind direction) into a database. Built upon this database, we have developed a remarkably simple approach to derive a functional weather predictor. The aim is provide up to the minute local weather predictions in order to e.g. prepare dome environment conditions ready for night time operations or plan, prioritize and update weather dependent observing queues. In order to predict the weather for the next 24 hours, we take the current live weather readings and search the entire archive for similar conditions. Predictions are made against an averaged, subsequent 24 hours of the closest matches for the current readings. We use an Evolutionary Algorithm to optimize our formula through weighted parameters. The accuracy of the predictor is routinely tested and tuned against the full, updated archive to account for seasonal trends and total, climate shifts. The live (updated every 5 minutes) SALT weather predictor can be viewed here: http://www.saao.ac.za/ sbp/suthweather_predict.html

Emotion regulation predicts symptoms of depression over five years.

PubMed

Berking, Matthias; Wirtz, Carolin M; Svaldi, Jennifer; Hofmann, Stefan G

2014-06-01

Deficits in emotion regulation have been identified as an important risk and maintaining factor for depression. The aim of this study was to examine the long-term effects of emotion regulation on symptoms of depression. Moreover, we investigated which specific emotion regulation skills were associated with subsequent symptoms of depression. Participants were 116 individuals (78% women, average age 35.2 years) who registered for an online-based assessment of depression and its risk-factors and reported at least some symptoms of depression. Successful application of emotion regulation skills and depressive symptom severity were assessed twice over a 5-year period. We utilized cross-lagged panel analyses to assess whether successful skills application would be negatively associated with subsequent depressive symptom severity. Cross-lagged panel analyses identified successful skills application as a significant predictor for depressive symptom severity even when controlling for the effects of initial symptoms of depression. A comparison of the effect sizes for different emotion regulation skills on subsequent depressive symptoms suggests that most of the skills included have similar predictive value. These findings provide preliminary evidence for the hypotheses that deficits in emotion regulation may contribute to the development of depression and that interventions systematically enhancing adaptive emotion regulation skills may help prevent and treat depressive symptoms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Idea Density Measured in Late Life Predicts Subsequent Cognitive Trajectories: Implications for the Measurement of Cognitive Reserve

PubMed Central

Chand, Vineeta; Bonnici, Lisa; Baynes, Kathleen; Harvey, Danielle; Mungas, Dan; Simon, Christa; Reed, Bruce

2012-01-01

Objective. The Nun Study showed that lower linguistic ability in young adulthood, measured by idea density (ID), increased the risk of dementia in late life. The present study examined whether ID measured in late life continues to predict the trajectory of cognitive change. Method. ID was measured in 81 older adults who were followed longitudinally for an average of 4.3 years. Changes in global cognition and 4 specific neuropsychological domains (episodic memory, semantic memory, spatial abilities, and executive function) were examined as outcomes. Separate random effects models tested the effect of ID on longitudinal change in outcomes, adjusted for age and education. Results. Lower ID was associated with greater subsequent decline in global cognition, semantic memory, episodic memory, and spatial abilities. When analysis was restricted to only participants without dementia at the time ID was collected, results were similar. Discussion. Linguistic ability in young adulthood, as measured by ID, has been previously proposed as an index of neurocognitive development and/or cognitive reserve. The present study provides evidence that even when ID is measured in old age, it continues to be associated with subsequent cognitive decline and as such may continue to provide a marker of cognitive reserve. PMID:22357642

Interest level in 2-year-olds with autism spectrum disorder predicts rate of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill acquisition.

PubMed

Klintwall, Lars; Macari, Suzanne; Eikeseth, Svein; Chawarska, Katarzyna

2015-11-01

Recent studies have suggested that skill acquisition rates for children with autism spectrum disorders receiving early interventions can be predicted by child motivation. We examined whether level of interest during an Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule assessment at 2 years predicts subsequent rates of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill acquisition to the age of 3 years. A total of 70 toddlers with autism spectrum disorder, mean age of 21.9 months, were scored using Interest Level Scoring for Autism, quantifying toddlers' interest in toys, social routines, and activities that could serve as reinforcers in an intervention. Adaptive level and mental age were measured concurrently (Time 1) and again after a mean of 16.3 months of treatment (Time 2). Interest Level Scoring for Autism score, Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule score, adaptive age equivalent, verbal and nonverbal mental age, and intensity of intervention were entered into regression models to predict rates of skill acquisition. Interest level at Time 1 predicted subsequent acquisition rate of adaptive skills (R(2) = 0.36) and verbal mental age (R(2) = 0.30), above and beyond the effects of Time 1 verbal and nonverbal mental ages and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule scores. Interest level at Time 1 also contributed (R(2) = 0.30), with treatment intensity, to variance in development of nonverbal mental age. © The Author(s) 2014.

The use of computer graphics in the visual analysis of the proposed Sunshine Ski Area expansion

Treesearch

Mark Angelo

1979-01-01

This paper describes the use of computer graphics in designing part of the Sunshine Ski Area in Banff National Park. The program used was capable of generating perspective landscape drawings from a number of different viewpoints. This allowed managers to predict, and subsequently reduce, the adverse visual impacts of ski-run development. Computer graphics have proven,...

Stability of compressible Taylor-Couette flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kao, K.; Chow, C.

1992-01-01

The objectives of this paper are to: (1) develop both analytical and numerical tools that can be used to predict the onset of instability and subsequently to simulate the transition process by which the originally laminar flow evolves into a turbulent flow; and (2) conduct the preliminary investigations with the purpose of understanding the mechanisms of the vortical structures of the compressible flow between tow concentric cylinders.

Acute liver failure.

PubMed

Slack, Andy; Wendon, Julia

2011-06-01

ALF is a multisystem disorder necessitating both predictive and reactive management strategies to support and protect organs from the initial and subsequent insults encountered. Early referral to a specialist liver centre with the option of liver transplantation is recommended. Furthermore, a good understanding of the poor prognostic variables is necessary to determine those most at risk of developing ALF in order to facilitate timely, safe transfer and listing for liver transplantation.

Locating the Place and Meaning of Physical Activity in the Lives of Young People from Low-Income, Lone-Parent Families

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quarmby, Thomas; Dagkas, Symeon

2013-01-01

Background: In the United Kingdom (UK), it is predicted that economic cuts and a subsequent increase in child poverty will affect those already on the lowest incomes and, in particular, those living in lone-parent families. As a result, the informal pedagogic encounters within the family that contribute to the development of physical…

Stability of phase transformation models for Ti-6Al-4V under cyclic thermal loading imposed during laser metal deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klusemann, Benjamin; Bambach, Markus

2018-05-01

Processing conditions play a crucial role for the resulting microstructure and properties of the material. In particular, processing materials under non-equilibrium conditions can lead to a remarkable improvement of the final properties [1]. Additive manufacturing represents a specific process example considered in this study. Models for the prediction of residual stresses and microstructure in additive manufacturing processes, such as laser metal deposition, are being developed with huge efforts to support the development of materials and processes as well as to support process design [2-4]. Since the microstructure predicted after each heating and cooling cycle induced by the moving laser source enters the phase transformation kinetics and microstucture evolution of the subsequent heating and cooling cycle, a feed-back loop for the microstructure calculation is created. This calculation loop may become unstable so that the computed microstructure and related properties become very sensitive to small variations in the input parameters, e.g. thermal conductivity. In this paper, a model for phase transformation in Ti-6Al-4V, originally proposed by Charles Murgau et al. [5], is adopted and minimal adjusted concerning the decomposition of the martensite phase are made. This model is subsequently used to study the changes in the predictions of the different phase volume fractions during heating and cooling under the conditions of laser metal deposition with respect to slight variations in the thermal process history.

Reciprocal- effects of parenting and borderline personality disorder symptoms in adolescent girls

PubMed Central

Stepp, Stephanie D.; Whalen, Diana J.; Scott, Lori N.; Zalewski, Maureen; Loeber, Rolf; Hipwell, Alison E.

2014-01-01

Theories of borderline personality disorder (BPD) postulate that high-risk transactions between caregiver and child are important for the development and maintenance of the disorder. Little empirical evidence exists regarding the reciprocal effects of parenting on the development of BPD symptoms in adolescence. The impact of child and caregiver characteristics on this reciprocal relationship is also unknown. Thus, the current study examines bidirectional effects of parenting, specifically harsh punishment practices and caregiver low warmth, and BPD symptoms in girls aged 14–17 years based on annual, longitudinal data from the Pittsburgh Girls Study (N = 2,451) in the context of child and caregiver characteristics. We examined these associations through the use of autoregressive latent trajectory models to differentiate time-specific variations in BPD symptoms and parenting from the stable processes that steadily influence repeated measures within an individual. The developmental trajectories of BPD symptoms and parenting were moderately associated, suggesting a reciprocal relationship. There was some support for time-specific elevations in BPD symptoms predicting subsequent increases in harsh punishment and caregiver low warmth. There was little support for increases in harsh punishment and caregiver low warmth predicting subsequent elevations in BPD symptoms. Child impulsivity and negative affectivity, and caregiver psychopathology were related to parenting trajectories, while only child characteristics predicted BPD trajectories. The results highlight the stability of the reciprocal associations between parenting and BPD trajectories in adolescent girls and add to our understanding of the longitudinal course of BPD in youth. PMID:24443951

Applying a new computer-aided detection scheme generated imaging marker to predict short-term breast cancer risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Hollingsworth, Alan B.; Patel, Bhavika; Heidari, Morteza; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

2018-05-01

This study aims to investigate the feasibility of identifying a new quantitative imaging marker based on false-positives generated by a computer-aided detection (CAD) scheme to help predict short-term breast cancer risk. An image dataset including four view mammograms acquired from 1044 women was retrospectively assembled. All mammograms were originally interpreted as negative by radiologists. In the next subsequent mammography screening, 402 women were diagnosed with breast cancer and 642 remained negative. An existing CAD scheme was applied ‘as is’ to process each image. From CAD-generated results, four detection features including the total number of (1) initial detection seeds and (2) the final detected false-positive regions, (3) average and (4) sum of detection scores, were computed from each image. Then, by combining the features computed from two bilateral images of left and right breasts from either craniocaudal or mediolateral oblique view, two logistic regression models were trained and tested using a leave-one-case-out cross-validation method to predict the likelihood of each testing case being positive in the next subsequent screening. The new prediction model yielded the maximum prediction accuracy with an area under a ROC curve of AUC  =  0.65  ±  0.017 and the maximum adjusted odds ratio of 4.49 with a 95% confidence interval of (2.95, 6.83). The results also showed an increasing trend in the adjusted odds ratio and risk prediction scores (p  <  0.01). Thus, this study demonstrated that CAD-generated false-positives might include valuable information, which needs to be further explored for identifying and/or developing more effective imaging markers for predicting short-term breast cancer risk.

Frontoparietal Structural Connectivity in Childhood Predicts Development of Functional Connectivity and Reasoning Ability: A Large-Scale Longitudinal Investigation.

PubMed

Wendelken, Carter; Ferrer, Emilio; Ghetti, Simona; Bailey, Stephen K; Cutting, Laurie; Bunge, Silvia A

2017-08-30

Prior research points to a positive concurrent relationship between reasoning ability and both frontoparietal structural connectivity (SC) as measured by diffusion tensor imaging (Tamnes et al., 2010) and frontoparietal functional connectivity (FC) as measured by fMRI (Cocchi et al., 2014). Further, recent research demonstrates a link between reasoning ability and FC of two brain regions in particular: rostrolateral prefrontal cortex (RLPFC) and the inferior parietal lobe (IPL) (Wendelken et al., 2016). Here, we sought to investigate the concurrent and dynamic, lead-lag relationships among frontoparietal SC, FC, and reasoning ability in humans. To this end, we combined three longitudinal developmental datasets with behavioral and neuroimaging data from 523 male and female participants between 6 and 22 years of age. Cross-sectionally, reasoning ability was most strongly related to FC between RLPFC and IPL in adolescents and adults, but to frontoparietal SC in children. Longitudinal analysis revealed that RLPFC-IPL SC, but not FC, was a positive predictor of future changes in reasoning ability. Moreover, we found that RLPFC-IPL SC at one time point positively predicted future changes in RLPFC-IPL FC, whereas, in contrast, FC did not predict future changes in SC. Our results demonstrate the importance of strong white matter connectivity between RLPFC and IPL during middle childhood for the subsequent development of both robust FC and good reasoning ability. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The human capacity for reasoning develops substantially during childhood and has a profound impact on achievement in school and in cognitively challenging careers. Reasoning ability depends on communication between lateral prefrontal and parietal cortices. Therefore, to understand how this capacity develops, we examined the dynamic relationships over time among white matter tracts connecting frontoparietal cortices (i.e., structural connectivity, SC), coordinated frontoparietal activation (functional connectivity, FC), and reasoning ability in a large longitudinal sample of subjects 6-22 years of age. We found that greater frontoparietal SC in childhood predicts future increases in both FC and reasoning ability, demonstrating the importance of white matter development during childhood for subsequent brain and cognitive functioning. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/378549-10$15.00/0.

Frontoparietal Structural Connectivity in Childhood Predicts Development of Functional Connectivity and Reasoning Ability: A Large-Scale Longitudinal Investigation

PubMed Central

Ferrer, Emilio; Cutting, Laurie

2017-01-01

Prior research points to a positive concurrent relationship between reasoning ability and both frontoparietal structural connectivity (SC) as measured by diffusion tensor imaging (Tamnes et al., 2010) and frontoparietal functional connectivity (FC) as measured by fMRI (Cocchi et al., 2014). Further, recent research demonstrates a link between reasoning ability and FC of two brain regions in particular: rostrolateral prefrontal cortex (RLPFC) and the inferior parietal lobe (IPL) (Wendelken et al., 2016). Here, we sought to investigate the concurrent and dynamic, lead–lag relationships among frontoparietal SC, FC, and reasoning ability in humans. To this end, we combined three longitudinal developmental datasets with behavioral and neuroimaging data from 523 male and female participants between 6 and 22 years of age. Cross-sectionally, reasoning ability was most strongly related to FC between RLPFC and IPL in adolescents and adults, but to frontoparietal SC in children. Longitudinal analysis revealed that RLPFC–IPL SC, but not FC, was a positive predictor of future changes in reasoning ability. Moreover, we found that RLPFC–IPL SC at one time point positively predicted future changes in RLPFC–IPL FC, whereas, in contrast, FC did not predict future changes in SC. Our results demonstrate the importance of strong white matter connectivity between RLPFC and IPL during middle childhood for the subsequent development of both robust FC and good reasoning ability. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The human capacity for reasoning develops substantially during childhood and has a profound impact on achievement in school and in cognitively challenging careers. Reasoning ability depends on communication between lateral prefrontal and parietal cortices. Therefore, to understand how this capacity develops, we examined the dynamic relationships over time among white matter tracts connecting frontoparietal cortices (i.e., structural connectivity, SC), coordinated frontoparietal activation (functional connectivity, FC), and reasoning ability in a large longitudinal sample of subjects 6–22 years of age. We found that greater frontoparietal SC in childhood predicts future increases in both FC and reasoning ability, demonstrating the importance of white matter development during childhood for subsequent brain and cognitive functioning. PMID:28821657

Development of Tract-Specific White Matter Pathways During Early Reading Development in At-Risk Children and Typical Controls.

PubMed

Wang, Yingying; Mauer, Meaghan V; Raney, Talia; Peysakhovich, Barbara; Becker, Bryce L C; Sliva, Danielle D; Gaab, Nadine

2017-04-01

Developmental dyslexia is a neurodevelopmental disorder with a strong genetic basis. Previous studies observed white matter alterations in the left posterior brain regions in adults and school-age children with dyslexia. However, no study yet has examined the development of tract-specific white matter pathways from the pre-reading to the fluent reading stage in children at familial risk for dyslexia (FHD+) versus controls (FHD-). This study examined white matter integrity at pre-reading, beginning, and fluent reading stages cross-sectionally ( n = 78) and longitudinally (n = 45) using an automated fiber-tract quantification method. Our findings depict white matter alterations and atypical lateralization of the arcuate fasciculus at the pre-reading stage in FHD+ versus FHD- children. Moreover, we demonstrate faster white matter development in subsequent good versus poor readers and a positive association between white matter maturation and reading development using a longitudinal design. Additionally, the combination of white matter maturation, familial risk, and psychometric measures best predicted later reading abilities. Furthermore, within FHD+ children, subsequent good readers exhibited faster white matter development in the right superior longitudinal fasciculus compared with subsequent poor readers, suggesting a compensatory mechanism. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of white matter pathway maturation in the development of typical and atypical reading skills. Published by Oxford University Press 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Attendance Rates in a Workplace Predict Subsequent Outcome of Employment-Based Reinforcement of Cocaine Abstinence in Methadone Patients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Donlin, Wendy D.; Knealing, Todd W.; Needham, Mick; Wong, Conrad J.; Silverman, Kenneth

2008-01-01

This study assessed whether attendance rates in a workplace predicted subsequent outcome of employment-based reinforcement of cocaine abstinence. Unemployed adults in Baltimore methadone programs who used cocaine (N = 111) could work in a workplace for 4 hr every weekday and earn $10.00 per hour in vouchers for 26 weeks. During an induction…

Is the First-Year Predictive for Study Success in Subsequent Years? Findings from an Academy of Music

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mennen, Josien; van der Klink, Marcel

2017-01-01

In higher education, departments are under increasing pressure to improve study success. Research in this field focusing on higher music education is scarce. The aim of this study was to gain insight into the predictive capability of the first year for study success of students at an academy of music in subsequent years. Data on study progression…

Reevaluating Hubbert's Prediction of U.S. Peak Oil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Veen, C. J.

2006-05-01

In 1956, M. King Hubbert, chief consultant for the Shell Development Company's exploration and production research division, forecasted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. He subsequently updated this prediction using newer data, but the predicted timing of peaking did not change significantly (see Hubbert [1982] for a review and references to earlier papers). In 1971, U.S. annual production of crude oil peaked at slightly more than three billion barrels (bbl). Yet, Hubbert's model continues to be challenged by some. For instance, according to economist Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc., Winchester, Mass., it was only after Hubbert published his predictions ``that the Hubbert curve came to be seen as explanatory in and of itself, that is, geology requires that production should follow such a curve'' [Lynch, 2003].

A new framework to enhance the interpretation of external validation studies of clinical prediction models.

PubMed

Debray, Thomas P A; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Koffijberg, Hendrik; Nieboer, Daan; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Moons, Karel G M

2015-03-01

It is widely acknowledged that the performance of diagnostic and prognostic prediction models should be assessed in external validation studies with independent data from "different but related" samples as compared with that of the development sample. We developed a framework of methodological steps and statistical methods for analyzing and enhancing the interpretation of results from external validation studies of prediction models. We propose to quantify the degree of relatedness between development and validation samples on a scale ranging from reproducibility to transportability by evaluating their corresponding case-mix differences. We subsequently assess the models' performance in the validation sample and interpret the performance in view of the case-mix differences. Finally, we may adjust the model to the validation setting. We illustrate this three-step framework with a prediction model for diagnosing deep venous thrombosis using three validation samples with varying case mix. While one external validation sample merely assessed the model's reproducibility, two other samples rather assessed model transportability. The performance in all validation samples was adequate, and the model did not require extensive updating to correct for miscalibration or poor fit to the validation settings. The proposed framework enhances the interpretation of findings at external validation of prediction models. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Applying a machine learning model using a locally preserving projection based feature regeneration algorithm to predict breast cancer risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidari, Morteza; Zargari Khuzani, Abolfazl; Danala, Gopichandh; Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Qian, Wei; Zheng, Bin

2018-03-01

Both conventional and deep machine learning has been used to develop decision-support tools applied in medical imaging informatics. In order to take advantages of both conventional and deep learning approach, this study aims to investigate feasibility of applying a locally preserving projection (LPP) based feature regeneration algorithm to build a new machine learning classifier model to predict short-term breast cancer risk. First, a computer-aided image processing scheme was used to segment and quantify breast fibro-glandular tissue volume. Next, initially computed 44 image features related to the bilateral mammographic tissue density asymmetry were extracted. Then, an LLP-based feature combination method was applied to regenerate a new operational feature vector using a maximal variance approach. Last, a k-nearest neighborhood (KNN) algorithm based machine learning classifier using the LPP-generated new feature vectors was developed to predict breast cancer risk. A testing dataset involving negative mammograms acquired from 500 women was used. Among them, 250 were positive and 250 remained negative in the next subsequent mammography screening. Applying to this dataset, LLP-generated feature vector reduced the number of features from 44 to 4. Using a leave-onecase-out validation method, area under ROC curve produced by the KNN classifier significantly increased from 0.62 to 0.68 (p < 0.05) and odds ratio was 4.60 with a 95% confidence interval of [3.16, 6.70]. Study demonstrated that this new LPP-based feature regeneration approach enabled to produce an optimal feature vector and yield improved performance in assisting to predict risk of women having breast cancer detected in the next subsequent mammography screening.

The influence of children's pain memories on subsequent pain experience.

PubMed

Noel, Melanie; Chambers, Christine T; McGrath, Patrick J; Klein, Raymond M; Stewart, Sherry H

2012-08-01

Healthy children are often required to repeatedly undergo painful medical procedures (eg, immunizations). Although memory is often implicated in children's reactions to future pain, there is a dearth of research directly examining the relationship between the 2. The current study investigated the influence of children's memories for a novel pain stimulus on their subsequent pain experience. One hundred ten healthy children (60 boys) between the ages of 8 and 12 years completed a laboratory pain task and provided pain ratings. Two weeks later, children provided pain ratings based on their memories as well as their expectancies about future pain. One month following the initial laboratory visit, children again completed the pain task and provided pain ratings. Results showed that children's memory of pain intensity was a better predictor of subsequent pain reporting than their actual initial reporting of pain intensity, and mediated the relationship between initial and subsequent pain reporting. Children who had negatively estimated pain memories developed expectations of greater pain prior to a subsequent pain experience and showed greater increases in pain ratings over time than children who had accurate or positively estimated pain memories. These findings highlight the influence of pain memories on healthy children's expectations of future pain and subsequent pain experiences and extend predictive models of subsequent pain reporting. Copyright © 2012 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of the translocon-mediated membrane insertion free energies of protein sequences.

PubMed

Park, Yungki; Helms, Volkhard

2008-05-15

Helical membrane proteins (HMPs) play crucial roles in a variety of cellular processes. Unlike water-soluble proteins, HMPs need not only to fold but also get inserted into the membrane to be fully functional. This process of membrane insertion is mediated by the translocon complex. Thus, it is of great interest to develop computational methods for predicting the translocon-mediated membrane insertion free energies of protein sequences. We have developed Membrane Insertion (MINS), a novel sequence-based computational method for predicting the membrane insertion free energies of protein sequences. A benchmark test gives a correlation coefficient of 0.74 between predicted and observed free energies for 357 known cases, which corresponds to a mean unsigned error of 0.41 kcal/mol. These results are significantly better than those obtained by traditional hydropathy analysis. Moreover, the ability of MINS to reasonably predict membrane insertion free energies of protein sequences allows for effective identification of transmembrane (TM) segments. Subsequently, MINS was applied to predict the membrane insertion free energies of 316 TM segments found in known structures. An in-depth analysis of the predicted free energies reveals a number of interesting findings about the biogenesis and structural stability of HMPs. A web server for MINS is available at http://service.bioinformatik.uni-saarland.de/mins

A User-Friendly Model for Spray Drying to Aid Pharmaceutical Product Development

PubMed Central

Grasmeijer, Niels; de Waard, Hans; Hinrichs, Wouter L. J.; Frijlink, Henderik W.

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop a user-friendly model for spray drying that can aid in the development of a pharmaceutical product, by shifting from a trial-and-error towards a quality-by-design approach. To achieve this, a spray dryer model was developed in commercial and open source spreadsheet software. The output of the model was first fitted to the experimental output of a Büchi B-290 spray dryer and subsequently validated. The predicted outlet temperatures of the spray dryer model matched the experimental values very well over the entire range of spray dryer settings that were tested. Finally, the model was applied to produce glassy sugars by spray drying, an often used excipient in formulations of biopharmaceuticals. For the production of glassy sugars, the model was extended to predict the relative humidity at the outlet, which is not measured in the spray dryer by default. This extended model was then successfully used to predict whether specific settings were suitable for producing glassy trehalose and inulin by spray drying. In conclusion, a spray dryer model was developed that is able to predict the output parameters of the spray drying process. The model can aid the development of spray dried pharmaceutical products by shifting from a trial-and-error towards a quality-by-design approach. PMID:24040240

The associations of earlier trauma exposures and history of mental disorders with PTSD after subsequent traumas

PubMed Central

Kessler, Ronald C.; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio; Alonso, Jordi; Bromet, Evelyn J.; Gureje, Oye; Karam, Elie G.; Koenen, Karestan C.; Lee, Sing; Liu, Howard; Pennell, Beth-Ellen; Petukhova, Maria V.; Sampson, Nancy A.; Shahly, Victoria L.; Stein, Dan J.; Atwoli, Lukoye; Borges, Guilherme; Bunting, Brendan; de Girolamo, Giovanni; Gluzman, Semyon; Haro, Josep Maria; Hinkov, Hristo; Kawakami, Norito; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; Posada-Villa, Jose; Scott, Kate M.; Shalev, Arieh Y.; Have, Margreet ten; Torres, Yolanda; Viana, Maria Carmen; Zaslavsky, Alan M.

2017-01-01

Although earlier trauma exposure is known to predict post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after subsequent traumas, it is unclear if this association is limited to cases where the earlier trauma led to PTSD. Resolution of this uncertainty has important implications for research on pre-trauma vulnerability to PTSD. We examined this issue in the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys with 34,676 respondents who reported lifetime trauma exposure. One lifetime trauma was selected randomly for each respondent. DSM-IV PTSD due to that trauma was assessed. We reported in a previous paper that four earlier traumas involving interpersonal violence significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas (OR=1.3–2.5). We also assessed 14 lifetime DSM-IV mood, anxiety, disruptive behavior, and substance disorders prior to random traumas. We show in the current report that only prior anxiety disorders significantly predicted PTSD in a multivariate model (OR=1.5–4.3) and that these disorders interacted significantly with three of the earlier traumas (witnessing atrocities, physical violence victimization, rape). History of witnessing atrocities significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas only among respondents with prior PTSD (OR=5.6). Histories of physical violence victimization (OR=1.5) and rape after age 17 (OR=17.6) significantly predicted only among respondents with no history of prior anxiety disorders. Although only preliminary due to reliance on retrospective reports, these results suggest that history of anxiety disorders and history of a limited number of earlier traumas might usefully be targeted in future prospective studies as distinct foci of research on individual differences in vulnerability to PTSD after subsequent traumas. PMID:28924183

Parent-infant vocalisations at 12 months predict psychopathology at 7 years.

PubMed

Allely, C S; Purves, D; McConnachie, A; Marwick, H; Johnson, P; Doolin, O; Puckering, C; Golding, J; Gillberg, C; Wilson, P

2013-03-01

This study investigated the utility of adult and infant vocalisation in the prediction of child psychopathology. Families were sampled from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort. Vocalisation patterns were obtained from 180 videos (60 cases and 120 randomly selected sex-matched controls) of parent-infant interactions when infants were one year old. Cases were infants who had been subsequently diagnosed aged seven years, with at least one psychiatric diagnostic categorisation using the Development and Wellbeing Assessment. Psychopathologies included in the case group were disruptive behaviour disorders, oppositional-conduct disorders, Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, pervasive development disorder, and emotional disorders. Associations between infant and parent vocalisations and later psychiatric diagnoses were investigated. Low frequencies of maternal vocalisation predicted later development of infant psychopathology. A reduction of five vocalisations per minute predicted a 44% (95%CI: 11-94%; p-value=0.006) increase in the odds of an infant being a case. No association was observed between infant vocalisations and overall case status. In sum, altered vocalisation frequency in mother-infant interactions at one year is a potential risk marker for later diagnosis of a range of child psychopathologies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

First trimester prediction of maternal glycemic status.

PubMed

Gabbay-Benziv, Rinat; Doyle, Lauren E; Blitzer, Miriam; Baschat, Ahmet A

2015-05-01

To predict gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) or normoglycemic status using first trimester maternal characteristics. We used data from a prospective cohort study. First trimester maternal characteristics were compared between women with and without GDM. Association of these variables with sugar values at glucose challenge test (GCT) and subsequent GDM was tested to identify key parameters. A predictive algorithm for GDM was developed and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) statistics was used to derive the optimal risk score. We defined normoglycemic state, when GCT and all four sugar values at oral glucose tolerance test, whenever obtained, were normal. Using same statistical approach, we developed an algorithm to predict the normoglycemic state. Maternal age, race, prior GDM, first trimester BMI, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) were all significantly associated with GDM. Age, BMI, and SBP were also associated with GCT values. The logistic regression analysis constructed equation and the calculated risk score yielded sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 85%, 62%, 13.8%, and 98.3% for a cut-off value of 0.042, respectively (ROC-AUC - area under the curve 0.819, CI - confidence interval 0.769-0.868). The model constructed for normoglycemia prediction demonstrated lower performance (ROC-AUC 0.707, CI 0.668-0.746). GDM prediction can be achieved during the first trimester encounter by integration of maternal characteristics and basic measurements while normoglycemic status prediction is less effective.

Cognitive models for panic disorder with agoraphobia: A study of disaggregated within-person effects.

PubMed

Hoffart, Asle

2016-09-01

The purpose of this study was to test 2 cognitive models of panic disorder with agoraphobia (PDA)-a catastrophic cognitions model and a low self-efficacy model-by examining the within-person effects of model-derived cognitive variables on subsequent anxiety symptoms. Participants were 46 PDA patients with agoraphobic avoidance of moderate to severe degree who were randomly allocated to 6 weeks of either cognitive therapy, based on the catastrophic cognitions model of PDA, or guided mastery (guided exposure) therapy, based on the self-efficacy model of PDA. Cognitions and anxiety were measured weekly over the course of treatment. The data were analyzed with mixed models, using person-mean centering to disaggregate within- and between-person effects. All of the studied variables changed in the expected way over the course of therapy. There was a within-person effect of physical fears, loss of control fears, social fears, and self-efficacy when alone on subsequent state anxiety. On the other hand, within-person changes in anxiety did not predict subsequent cognitions. Loss of control and social fears both predicted subsequent self-efficacy, whereas self-efficacy did not predict catastrophic cognitions. In a multipredictor analysis, within-person catastrophic cognitions still predicted subsequent anxiety, but self-efficacy when alone did not. Overall, the findings indicate that anxiety in PDA, at least in severe and long-standing cases, is driven by catastrophic cognitions. Thus, these cognitions seem to be useful therapeutic targets. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Pretransplant comorbidities predict severity of acute graft-versus-host disease and subsequent mortality

PubMed Central

Martin, Paul J.; Storb, Rainer F.; Bhatia, Smita; Maziarz, Richard T.; Pulsipher, Michael A.; Maris, Michael B.; Davis, Christopher; Deeg, H. Joachim; Lee, Stephanie J.; Maloney, David G.; Sandmaier, Brenda M.; Appelbaum, Frederick R.; Gooley, Theodore A.

2014-01-01

Whether the hematopoietic cell transplantation comorbidity index (HCT-CI) can provide prognostic information about development of acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) and subsequent mortality is unknown. Five institutions contributed information on 2985 patients given human leukocyte antigen-matched grafts to address this question. Proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazards of acute GVHD and post-GVHD mortality after adjustment for known risk variables. Higher HCT-CI scores predicted increased risk of grades 3 to 4 acute GVHD (P < .0001 and c-statistic of 0.64), and tests of interaction suggested that this association was consistent among different conditioning intensities, donor types, and stem cell sources. Probabilities of grades 3 to 4 GVHD were 13%, 18%, and 24% for HCT-CI risk groups of 0, 1 to 4, and ≥5. The HCT-CI was statistically significantly associated with mortality rates following diagnosis of grade 2 (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.24; P < .0001) or grades 3 to 4 acute GVHD (HR = 1.19; P < .0001). Patients with HCT-CI scores of ≥3 who developed grades 3 to 4 acute GVHD had a 2.63-fold higher risk of mortality than those with scores of 0 to 2 and did not develop acute GVHD. Thus, pretransplant comorbidities are associated with the development and severity of acute GVHD and with post-GVHD mortality. The HCT-CI could be useful in designing trials for GVHD prevention and could inform expectations for GVHD treatment trials. PMID:24797298

Does resident ranking during recruitment accurately predict subsequent performance as a surgical resident?

PubMed

Fryer, Jonathan P; Corcoran, Noreen; George, Brian; Wang, Ed; Darosa, Debra

2012-01-01

While the primary goal of ranking applicants for surgical residency training positions is to identify the candidates who will subsequently perform best as surgical residents, the effectiveness of the ranking process has not been adequately studied. We evaluated our general surgery resident recruitment process between 2001 and 2011 inclusive, to determine if our recruitment ranking parameters effectively predicted subsequent resident performance. We identified 3 candidate ranking parameters (United States Medical Licensing Examination [USMLE] Step 1 score, unadjusted ranking score [URS], and final adjusted ranking [FAR]), and 4 resident performance parameters (American Board of Surgery In-Training Examination [ABSITE] score, PGY1 resident evaluation grade [REG], overall REG, and independent faculty rating ranking [IFRR]), and assessed whether the former were predictive of the latter. Analyses utilized Spearman correlation coefficient. We found that the URS, which is based on objective and criterion based parameters, was a better predictor of subsequent performance than the FAR, which is a modification of the URS based on subsequent determinations of the resident selection committee. USMLE score was a reliable predictor of ABSITE scores only. However, when we compared our worst residence performances with the performances of the other residents in this evaluation, the data did not produce convincing evidence that poor resident performances could be reliably predicted by any of the recruitment ranking parameters. Finally, stratifying candidates based on their rank range did not effectively define a ranking cut-off beyond which resident performance would drop off. Based on these findings, we recommend surgery programs may be better served by utilizing a more structured resident ranking process and that subsequent adjustments to the rank list generated by this process should be undertaken with caution. Copyright © 2012 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Defective monocyte oxidative burst predicts infection in alcoholic hepatitis and is associated with reduced expression of NADPH oxidase.

PubMed

Vergis, Nikhil; Khamri, Wafa; Beale, Kylie; Sadiq, Fouzia; Aletrari, Mina O; Moore, Celia; Atkinson, Stephen R; Bernsmeier, Christine; Possamai, Lucia A; Petts, Gemma; Ryan, Jennifer M; Abeles, Robin D; James, Sarah; Foxton, Matthew; Hogan, Brian; Foster, Graham R; O'Brien, Alastair J; Ma, Yun; Shawcross, Debbie L; Wendon, Julia A; Antoniades, Charalambos G; Thursz, Mark R

2017-03-01

In order to explain the increased susceptibility to serious infection in alcoholic hepatitis, we evaluated monocyte phagocytosis, aberrations of associated signalling pathways and their reversibility, and whether phagocytic defects could predict subsequent infection. Monocytes were identified from blood samples of 42 patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis using monoclonal antibody to CD14. Phagocytosis and monocyte oxidative burst (MOB) were measured ex vivo using flow cytometry, luminometry and bacterial killing assays. Defects were related to the subsequent development of infection. Intracellular signalling pathways were investigated using western blotting and PCR. Interferon-γ (IFN-γ) was evaluated for its therapeutic potential in reversing phagocytic defects. Paired longitudinal samples were used to evaluate the effect of in vivo prednisolone therapy. MOB, production of superoxide and bacterial killing in response to Escherichia coli were markedly impaired in patients with alcoholic hepatitis. Pretreatment MOB predicted development of infection within two weeks with sensitivity and specificity that were superior to available clinical markers. Accordingly, defective MOB was associated with death at 28 and 90 days. Expression of the gp91 phox subunit of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADPH) oxidase was reduced in patients with alcoholic hepatitis demonstrating defective MOB. Monocytes were refractory to IFN-γ stimulation and showed high levels of a negative regulator of cytokine signalling, suppressor of cytokine signalling-1. MOB was unaffected by 7 days in vivo prednisolone therapy. Monocyte oxidative burst and bacterial killing is impaired in alcoholic hepatitis while bacterial uptake by phagocytosis is preserved. Defective MOB is associated with reduced expression of NADPH oxidase in these patients and predicts the development of infection and death. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Prediction of oxygen distribution in aortic valve leaflet considering diffusion and convection.

PubMed

Wang, Ling; Korossis, Sotirios; Fisher, John; Ingham, Eileen; Jin, Zhongmin

2011-07-01

Oxygen supply and transport is an important consideration in the development of tissue engineered constructs. Previous studies from our group have focused on the effect of tissue thickness on the oxygen diffusion within a three-dimensional aortic valve leaflet model, and highlighted the necessity for additional transport mechanisms such as oxygen convection. The aims of this study were to investigate the effect of interstitial fluid flow within the aortic valve leaflet, induced by the cyclic loading of the leaflet, on oxygen transport. Indentation testing and finite element modelings were employed to derive the biphasic properties of the leaflet tissue. The biphasic properties were subsequently used in the computational modeling of oxygen convection in the leaflet, which was based on the effective interstitial fluid velocity and the tissue deformation. Subsequently, the oxygen profile was predicted within the valve leaflet model by solving the diffusion and convection equation simultaneously utilizing the finite difference method. The compression modulus (E) and hydraulic permeability were determined by adapting a finite element model to the experimental indentation test on valvular tissue, E = 0.05MPa, and k =2.0 mm4/Ns. Finite element model of oxygen convection in valvular tissue incorporating the predicted biphasic properties was developed and the interstitial fluid flow rate was calculated falling in range of 0.025-0.25 mm/s depending on the tissue depth. Oxygen distribution within valvular tissue was predicted using one-dimensional oxygen diffusion model taking into consider the interstitial fluid effect. It was found that convection did enhance the oxygen transport in valvular tissue by up to 68% increase in the minimum oxygen tension within the tissue, depending on the strain level of the tissue as reaction of the magnitude and frequencies of the cardiac loading. The effective interstitial fluid velocity was found to play an important role in enhancing the oxygen transport within the valve leaflet. Such an understanding is important in the development of valvular tissue engineered constructs.

DNA methylation screening of primary prostate tumors identifies SRD5A2 and CYP11A1 as candidate markers for assessing risk of biochemical recurrence.

PubMed

Horning, Aaron M; Awe, Julius A; Wang, Chiou-Miin; Liu, Joseph; Lai, Zhao; Wang, Vickie Yao; Jadhav, Rohit R; Louie, Anna D; Lin, Chun-Lin; Kroczak, Tad; Chen, Yidong; Jin, Victor X; Abboud-Werner, Sherry L; Leach, Robin J; Hernandez, Javior; Thompson, Ian M; Saranchuk, Jeff; Drachenberg, Darrel; Chen, Chun-Liang; Mai, Sabine; Huang, Tim Hui-Ming

2015-11-01

Altered DNA methylation in CpG islands of gene promoters has been implicated in prostate cancer (PCa) progression and can be used to predict disease outcome. In this study, we determine whether methylation changes of androgen biosynthesis pathway (ABP)-related genes in patients' plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) can serve as prognostic markers for biochemical recurrence (BCR). Methyl-binding domain capture sequencing (MBDCap-seq) was used to identify differentially methylated regions (DMRs) in primary tumors of patients who subsequently developed BCR or not, respectively. Methylation pyrosequencing of candidate loci was validated in cfDNA samples of 86 PCa patients taken at and/or post-radical prostatectomy (RP) using univariate and multivariate prediction analyses. Putative DMRs in 13 of 30 ABP-related genes were found between tumors of BCR (n = 12) versus no evidence of disease (NED) (n = 15). In silico analysis of The Cancer Genome Atlas data confirmed increased DNA methylation of two loci-SRD5A2 and CYP11A1, which also correlated with their decreased expression, in tumors with subsequent BCR development. Their aberrant cfDNA methylation was also associated with detectable levels of PSA taken after patients' post-RP. Multivariate analysis of the change in cfDNA methylation at all of CpG sites measured along with patient's treatment history predicted if a patient will develop BCR with 77.5% overall accuracy. Overall, increased DNA methylation of SRD5A2 and CYP11A1 related to androgen biosynthesis functions may play a role in BCR after patients' RP. The correlation between aberrant cfDNA methylation and detectable PSA in post-RP further suggests their utility as predictive markers for PCa recurrence. . © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Preventing the transmission of pathogenic mitochondrial DNA mutations: can we achieve long-term benefits from germ-line gene transfer?

PubMed Central

Samuels, David C.; Wonnapinij, Passorn; Chinnery, Patrick F.

2013-01-01

Mitochondrial medicine is one of the few areas of genetic disease where germ-line transfer is being actively pursued as a treatment option. All of the germ-line transfer methods currently under development involve some carry-over of the maternal mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) heteroplasmy, potentially delivering the pathogenic mutation to the offspring. Rapid changes in mtDNA heteroplasmy have been observed within a single generation, and so any ‘leakage’ of mutant mtDNA could lead to mtDNA disease in future generations, compromising the reproductive health of the first generation, and leading to repeated interventions in subsequent generations. To determine whether this is a real concern, we developed a model of mtDNA heteroplasmy inheritance by studying 87 mother–child pairs, and predicted the likely outcome of different levels of ‘mutant mtDNA leakage’ on subsequent maternal generations. This showed that, for a clinical threshold of 60%, reducing the proportion of mutant mtDNA to <5% dramatically reduces the chance of disease recurrence in subsequent generations, but transmitting >5% mutant mtDNA was associated with a significant chance of disease recurrence. Mutations with a lower clinical threshold were associated with a higher risk of recurrence. Our findings provide reassurance that, at least from an mtDNA perspective, methods currently under development have the potential to effectively eradicate pathogenic mtDNA mutations from subsequent generations. PMID:23297368

Evaluation of bloodstream infections, Clostridium difficile infections, and gut microbiota in pediatric oncology patients.

PubMed

Nycz, Bryan T; Dominguez, Samuel R; Friedman, Deborah; Hilden, Joanne M; Ir, Diana; Robertson, Charles E; Frank, Daniel N

2018-01-01

Bloodstream infections (BSI) and Clostridium difficile infections (CDI) in pediatric oncology/hematology/bone marrow transplant (BMT) populations are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to explore possible associations between altered microbiome composition and the occurrence of BSI and CDI in a cohort of pediatric oncology patients. Stool samples were collected from all patients admitted to the pediatric oncology floor from Oct.-Dec. 2012. Bacterial profiles from patient stools were determined by bacterial 16S rRNA gene profiling. Differences in overall microbiome composition were assessed by a permutation-based multivariate analysis of variance test, while differences in the relative abundances of specific taxa were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis tests. At admission, 9 of 42 patients (21%) were colonized with C. difficile, while 6 of 42 (14%) subsequently developed a CDI. Furthermore, 3 patients (7%) previously had a BSI and 6 patients (14%) subsequently developed a BSI. Differences in overall microbiome composition were significantly associated with disease type (p = 0.0086), chemotherapy treatment (p = 0.018), BSI following admission from any cause (p < 0.0001) or suspected gastrointestinal organisms (p = 0.00043). No differences in baseline microbiota were observed between individuals who did or did not subsequently develop C. difficile infection. Additionally, multiple bacterial groups varied significantly between subjects with post-admission BSI compared with no BSI. Our results suggest that differences in gut microbiota not only are associated with type of cancer and chemotherapy, but may also be predictive of subsequent bloodstream infection.

Stigma in science: the case of earthquake prediction.

PubMed

Joffe, Helene; Rossetto, Tiziana; Bradley, Caroline; O'Connor, Cliodhna

2018-01-01

This paper explores how earthquake scientists conceptualise earthquake prediction, particularly given the conviction of six earthquake scientists for manslaughter (subsequently overturned) on 22 October 2012 for having given inappropriate advice to the public prior to the L'Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009. In the first study of its kind, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 earthquake scientists and the transcribed interviews were analysed thematically. The scientists primarily denigrated earthquake prediction, showing strong emotive responses and distancing themselves from earthquake 'prediction' in favour of 'forecasting'. Earthquake prediction was regarded as impossible and harmful. The stigmatisation of the subject is discussed in the light of research on boundary work and stigma in science. The evaluation reveals how mitigation becomes the more favoured endeavour, creating a normative environment that disadvantages those who continue to pursue earthquake prediction research. Recommendations are made for communication with the public on earthquake risk, with a focus on how scientists portray uncertainty. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

Fan Noise Prediction with Applications to Aircraft System Noise Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nark, Douglas M.; Envia, Edmane; Burley, Casey L.

2009-01-01

This paper describes an assessment of current fan noise prediction tools by comparing measured and predicted sideline acoustic levels from a benchmark fan noise wind tunnel test. Specifically, an empirical method and newly developed coupled computational approach are utilized to predict aft fan noise for a benchmark test configuration. Comparisons with sideline noise measurements are performed to assess the relative merits of the two approaches. The study identifies issues entailed in coupling the source and propagation codes, as well as provides insight into the capabilities of the tools in predicting the fan noise source and subsequent propagation and radiation. In contrast to the empirical method, the new coupled computational approach provides the ability to investigate acoustic near-field effects. The potential benefits/costs of these new methods are also compared with the existing capabilities in a current aircraft noise system prediction tool. The knowledge gained in this work provides a basis for improved fan source specification in overall aircraft system noise studies.

Predicting human developmental toxicity of pharmaceuticals using human embryonic stem cells and metabolomics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

West, Paul R., E-mail: pwest@stemina.co; Weir, April M.; Smith, Alan M.

2010-08-15

Teratogens, substances that may cause fetal abnormalities during development, are responsible for a significant number of birth defects. Animal models used to predict teratogenicity often do not faithfully correlate to human response. Here, we seek to develop a more predictive developmental toxicity model based on an in vitro method that utilizes both human embryonic stem (hES) cells and metabolomics to discover biomarkers of developmental toxicity. We developed a method where hES cells were dosed with several drugs of known teratogenicity then LC-MS analysis was performed to measure changes in abundance levels of small molecules in response to drug dosing. Statisticalmore » analysis was employed to select for specific mass features that can provide a prediction of the developmental toxicity of a substance. These molecules can serve as biomarkers of developmental toxicity, leading to better prediction of teratogenicity. In particular, our work shows a correlation between teratogenicity and changes of greater than 10% in the ratio of arginine to asymmetric dimethylarginine levels. In addition, this study resulted in the establishment of a predictive model based on the most informative mass features. This model was subsequently tested for its predictive accuracy in two blinded studies using eight drugs of known teratogenicity, where it correctly predicted the teratogenicity for seven of the eight drugs. Thus, our initial data shows that this platform is a robust alternative to animal and other in vitro models for the prediction of the developmental toxicity of chemicals that may also provide invaluable information about the underlying biochemical pathways.« less

A Dual Role of Caspase-8 in Triggering and Sensing Proliferation-Associated DNA Damage, a Key Determinant of Liver Cancer Development.

PubMed

Boege, Yannick; Malehmir, Mohsen; Healy, Marc E; Bettermann, Kira; Lorentzen, Anna; Vucur, Mihael; Ahuja, Akshay K; Böhm, Friederike; Mertens, Joachim C; Shimizu, Yutaka; Frick, Lukas; Remouchamps, Caroline; Mutreja, Karun; Kähne, Thilo; Sundaravinayagam, Devakumar; Wolf, Monika J; Rehrauer, Hubert; Koppe, Christiane; Speicher, Tobias; Padrissa-Altés, Susagna; Maire, Renaud; Schattenberg, Jörn M; Jeong, Ju-Seong; Liu, Lei; Zwirner, Stefan; Boger, Regina; Hüser, Norbert; Davis, Roger J; Müllhaupt, Beat; Moch, Holger; Schulze-Bergkamen, Henning; Clavien, Pierre-Alain; Werner, Sabine; Borsig, Lubor; Luther, Sanjiv A; Jost, Philipp J; Weinlich, Ricardo; Unger, Kristian; Behrens, Axel; Hillert, Laura; Dillon, Christopher; Di Virgilio, Michela; Wallach, David; Dejardin, Emmanuel; Zender, Lars; Naumann, Michael; Walczak, Henning; Green, Douglas R; Lopes, Massimo; Lavrik, Inna; Luedde, Tom; Heikenwalder, Mathias; Weber, Achim

2017-09-11

Concomitant hepatocyte apoptosis and regeneration is a hallmark of chronic liver diseases (CLDs) predisposing to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Here, we mechanistically link caspase-8-dependent apoptosis to HCC development via proliferation- and replication-associated DNA damage. Proliferation-associated replication stress, DNA damage, and genetic instability are detectable in CLDs before any neoplastic changes occur. Accumulated levels of hepatocyte apoptosis determine and predict subsequent hepatocarcinogenesis. Proliferation-associated DNA damage is sensed by a complex comprising caspase-8, FADD, c-FLIP, and a kinase-dependent function of RIPK1. This platform requires a non-apoptotic function of caspase-8, but no caspase-3 or caspase-8 cleavage. It may represent a DNA damage-sensing mechanism in hepatocytes that can act via JNK and subsequent phosphorylation of the histone variant H2AX. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Testosterone Responders to Continuous Androgen Deprivation Therapy Show Considerable Variations in Testosterone Levels on Followup: Implications for Clinical Practice.

PubMed

Sayyid, Rashid K; Sayyid, Abdallah K; Klaassen, Zachary; Fadaak, Kamel; Goldberg, Hanan; Chandrasekar, Thenappan; Ahmad, Ardalanejaz; Leao, Ricardo; Perlis, Nathan; Chadwick, Karen; Hamilton, Robert J; Kulkarni, Girish S; Finelli, Antonio; Zlotta, Alexandre R; Fleshner, Neil E

2018-01-01

We determined whether men on continuous androgen deprivation therapy who achieve testosterone less than 0.7 nmol/l demonstrate subsequent testosterone elevations during followup and whether such events predict worse oncologic outcomes. We evaluated a random, retrospective sample of 514 patients with prostate cancer treated with continuous androgen deprivation therapy in whom serum testosterone was less than 0.7 nmol/l at University Health Network between 2007 and 2016. Patients were followed from the date of the first testosterone measurement of less than 0.7 nmol/l to progression to castrate resistance, death or study period end. Study outcomes were the development of testosterone elevations greater than 0.7, greater than 1.1 and greater than 1.7 nmol/l, and progression to a castrate resistant state. Survival curves were constructed to determine the rate of testosterone elevations. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was done to assess whether elevations predicted progression to castrate resistance. Median patient age was 74 years and median followup was 20.3 months. Within 5 years of followup 82%, 45% and 18% of patients had subsequent testosterone levels greater than 0.7, greater than 1.1 and greater than 1.7 nmol/l, respectively. In 96% to 100% of these patients levels less than 0.7 nmol/l were subsequently reestablished within 5 years. No patient baseline characteristic was associated with elevations and elevations were not a significant predictor of progression to a castrate resistant state. Men on continuous androgen deprivation therapy in whom initial testosterone is less than 0.7 nmol/l frequently show subsequent elevations in serum testosterone. Such a development should not trigger an immediate response from physicians as these events are prognostically insignificant with regard to oncologic outcomes. Levels are eventually reestablished at less than 0.7 nmol/l. Copyright © 2018 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combining Modeling and Gaming for Predictive Analytics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riensche, Roderick M.; Whitney, Paul D.

2012-08-22

Many of our most significant challenges involve people. While human behavior has long been studied, there are recent advances in computational modeling of human behavior. With advances in computational capabilities come increases in the volume and complexity of data that humans must understand in order to make sense of and capitalize on these modeling advances. Ultimately, models represent an encapsulation of human knowledge. One inherent challenge in modeling is efficient and accurate transfer of knowledge from humans to models, and subsequent retrieval. The simulated real-world environment of games presents one avenue for these knowledge transfers. In this paper we describemore » our approach of combining modeling and gaming disciplines to develop predictive capabilities, using formal models to inform game development, and using games to provide data for modeling.« less

A defect density-based constitutive crystal plasticity framework for modeling the plastic deformation of Fe-Cr-Al cladding alloys subsequent to irradiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patra, Anirban; Wen, Wei; Martinez Saez, Enrique

2016-02-05

It is essential to understand the deformation behavior of these Fe-Cr-Al alloys, in order to be able to develop models for predicting their mechanical response under varied loading conditions. Interaction of dislocations with the radiation-induced defects governs the crystallographic deformation mechanisms. A crystal plasticity framework is employed to model these mechanisms in Fe-Cr-Al alloys. This work builds on a previously developed defect density-based crystal plasticity model for bcc metals and alloys, with necessary modifications made to account for the defect substructure observed in Fe-Cr-Al alloys. The model is implemented in a Visco-Plastic Self Consistent (VPSC) framework, to predict the mechanicalmore » behavior under quasi-static loading.« less

Global brain dynamics during social exclusion predict subsequent behavioral conformity

PubMed Central

Wasylyshyn, Nick; Hemenway Falk, Brett; Garcia, Javier O; Cascio, Christopher N; O’Donnell, Matthew Brook; Bingham, C Raymond; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Vettel, Jean M; Falk, Emily B

2018-01-01

Abstract Individuals react differently to social experiences; for example, people who are more sensitive to negative social experiences, such as being excluded, may be more likely to adapt their behavior to fit in with others. We examined whether functional brain connectivity during social exclusion in the fMRI scanner can be used to predict subsequent conformity to peer norms. Adolescent males (n = 57) completed a two-part study on teen driving risk: a social exclusion task (Cyberball) during an fMRI session and a subsequent driving simulator session in which they drove alone and in the presence of a peer who expressed risk-averse or risk-accepting driving norms. We computed the difference in functional connectivity between social exclusion and social inclusion from each node in the brain to nodes in two brain networks, one previously associated with mentalizing (medial prefrontal cortex, temporoparietal junction, precuneus, temporal poles) and another with social pain (dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, anterior insula). Using predictive modeling, this measure of global connectivity during exclusion predicted the extent of conformity to peer pressure during driving in the subsequent experimental session. These findings extend our understanding of how global neural dynamics guide social behavior, revealing functional network activity that captures individual differences. PMID:29529310

Late-Life Depressive Symptoms and Lifetime History of Major Depression: Cognitive Deficits are Largely Due to Incipient Dementia rather than Depression.

PubMed

Heser, Kathrin; Bleckwenn, Markus; Wiese, Birgitt; Mamone, Silke; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G; Stein, Janine; Lühmann, Dagmar; Posselt, Tina; Fuchs, Angela; Pentzek, Michael; Weyerer, Siegfried; Werle, Jochen; Weeg, Dagmar; Bickel, Horst; Brettschneider, Christian; König, Hans-Helmut; Maier, Wolfgang; Scherer, Martin; Wagner, Michael

2016-08-01

Late-life depression is frequently accompanied by cognitive impairments. Whether these impairments indicate a prodromal state of dementia, or are a symptomatic expression of depression per se is not well-studied. In a cohort of very old initially non-demented primary care patients (n = 2,709, mean age = 81.1 y), cognitive performance was compared between groups of participants with or without elevated depressive symptoms and with or without subsequent dementia using ANCOVA (adjusted for age, sex, and education). Logistic regression analyses were computed to predict subsequent dementia over up to six years of follow-up. The same analytical approach was performed for lifetime major depression. Participants with elevated depressive symptoms without subsequent dementia showed only small to medium cognitive deficits. In contrast, participants with depressive symptoms with subsequent dementia showed medium to very large cognitive deficits. In adjusted logistic regression models, learning and memory deficits predicted the risk for subsequent dementia in participants with depressive symptoms. Participants with a lifetime history of major depression without subsequent dementia showed no cognitive deficits. However, in adjusted logistic regression models, learning and orientation deficits predicted the risk for subsequent dementia also in participants with lifetime major depression. Marked cognitive impairments in old age depression should not be dismissed as "depressive pseudodementia", but require clinical attention as a possible sign of incipient dementia. Non-depressed elderly with a lifetime history of major depression, who remained free of dementia during follow-up, had largely normal cognitive performance.

The effect of providing feedback on the characteristics of student responses to a videotaped format for high school physics assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, Michael John

1997-12-01

The problem of science illiteracy has been well documented. The development of the critical thinking skills in science education are often sacrificed in favor of content coverage. Opportunities for critical thinking within a context of science have been recommended to promote science literacy (AAAS, 1993). One means of doing this is to have students make and explain predictions involving physical phenomena, observe feedback, and then revise the prediction. A videotaped assessment using this process served as the focus for this study. High school physics students were asked to predict and explain what would happen in situations involving optics. They were then given different feedback treatments. The purpose of this study was to: (a) examine the effect of providing feedback on the quality of responses in making both revisions and subsequent predictions, and (b) examine the relationship between content knowledge and qualitative performance. Sixty-four high ability students were separated into three treatment groups: no feedback (NF), visual feedback (F), and teacher-explained feedback (TE). These students responded to six items on the Optics Videotape Assessment and ten optics multiple choice items from the National Physics Exam (NPE). Their teachers had previously attended a professional development institute which emphasized the practice and philosophy of assessments like the Optics Assessment. The assessment responses were categorized by two raters who used a taxonomy that ranged from simple descriptions to complete explanations. NPE performance was compared using one-way ANOVA, Optics Assessment performance was compared using a chi-square test of homogeneity, and a point-biserial correlation was done to compare qualitative and quantitative performance. The study found that students were unable to use feedback to make a significant change in the quality of their responses, whether revision or subsequent prediction. There was no correlation between content knowledge and qualitative performance. It was concluded that for students to succeed on an assessment of this type, their classroom teachers must be given the time to implement the appropriate instruction. Instruction and assessment of this nature are crucial to the development of science literacy.

A Novel Approach for Blast-Induced Flyrock Prediction Based on Imperialist Competitive Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network

PubMed Central

Marto, Aminaton; Jahed Armaghani, Danial; Tonnizam Mohamad, Edy; Makhtar, Ahmad Mahir

2014-01-01

Flyrock is one of the major disturbances induced by blasting which may cause severe damage to nearby structures. This phenomenon has to be precisely predicted and subsequently controlled through the changing in the blast design to minimize potential risk of blasting. The scope of this study is to predict flyrock induced by blasting through a novel approach based on the combination of imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) and artificial neural network (ANN). For this purpose, the parameters of 113 blasting operations were accurately recorded and flyrock distances were measured for each operation. By applying the sensitivity analysis, maximum charge per delay and powder factor were determined as the most influential parameters on flyrock. In the light of this analysis, two new empirical predictors were developed to predict flyrock distance. For a comparison purpose, a predeveloped backpropagation (BP) ANN was developed and the results were compared with those of the proposed ICA-ANN model and empirical predictors. The results clearly showed the superiority of the proposed ICA-ANN model in comparison with the proposed BP-ANN model and empirical approaches. PMID:25147856

A novel approach for blast-induced flyrock prediction based on imperialist competitive algorithm and artificial neural network.

PubMed

Marto, Aminaton; Hajihassani, Mohsen; Armaghani, Danial Jahed; Mohamad, Edy Tonnizam; Makhtar, Ahmad Mahir

2014-01-01

Flyrock is one of the major disturbances induced by blasting which may cause severe damage to nearby structures. This phenomenon has to be precisely predicted and subsequently controlled through the changing in the blast design to minimize potential risk of blasting. The scope of this study is to predict flyrock induced by blasting through a novel approach based on the combination of imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) and artificial neural network (ANN). For this purpose, the parameters of 113 blasting operations were accurately recorded and flyrock distances were measured for each operation. By applying the sensitivity analysis, maximum charge per delay and powder factor were determined as the most influential parameters on flyrock. In the light of this analysis, two new empirical predictors were developed to predict flyrock distance. For a comparison purpose, a predeveloped backpropagation (BP) ANN was developed and the results were compared with those of the proposed ICA-ANN model and empirical predictors. The results clearly showed the superiority of the proposed ICA-ANN model in comparison with the proposed BP-ANN model and empirical approaches.

Prediction of the Hydrogen Peroxide-Induced Methionine Oxidation Propensity in Monoclonal Antibodies.

PubMed

Agrawal, Neeraj J; Dykstra, Andrew; Yang, Jane; Yue, Hai; Nguyen, Xichdao; Kolvenbach, Carl; Angell, Nicolas

2018-05-01

Methionine oxidation in therapeutic antibodies can impact the product's stability, clinical efficacy, and safety and hence it is desirable to address the methionine oxidation liability during antibody discovery and development phase. Although the current experimental approaches can identify the oxidation-labile methionine residues, their application is limited mostly to the development phase. We demonstrate an in silico method that can be used to predict oxidation-labile residues based solely on the antibody sequence and structure information. Since antibody sequence information is available in the discovery phase, the in silico method can be applied very early on to identify the oxidation-labile methionine residues and subsequently address the oxidation liability. We believe that the in silico method for methionine oxidation liability assessment can aid in antibody discovery and development phase to address the liability in a more rational way. Copyright © 2018 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Transactions between child social wariness and observed structured parenting: evidence from a prospective adoption study.

PubMed

Natsuaki, Misaki N; Leve, Leslie D; Harold, Gordon T; Neiderhiser, Jenae M; Shaw, Daniel S; Ganiban, Jody; Scaramella, Laura V; Reiss, David

2013-01-01

This investigation examined the mutual influences between structured parenting and child social wariness during toddlerhood using a longitudinal adoption design. The sample consisted of 361 adoption-linked families, each including an adopted child, adoptive parents, and a birth mother. Heightened social wariness in children at age 18 months predicted reduced levels of observed structured parenting (i.e., less directive parenting with fewer commands and requests) in adoptive mothers at age 27 months. Adoptive fathers' lower structured parenting at age 18 months predicted subsequent elevation in child social wariness. Birth mothers' history of fear-related anxiety disorders was not associated with child social wariness. Findings highlight the role of dynamic family transactions in the development of social wariness during toddlerhood. © 2013 The Authors. Child Development © 2013 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Advanced Technology Composite Fuselage-Structural Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, T. H.; Minguet, P. J.; Flynn, B. W.; Carbery, D. J.; Swanson, G. D.; Ilcewicz, L. B.

1997-01-01

Boeing is studying the technologies associated with the application of composite materials to commercial transport fuselage structure under the NASA-sponsored contracts for Advanced Technology Composite Aircraft Structures (ATCAS) and Materials Development Omnibus Contract (MDOC). This report addresses the program activities related to structural performance of the selected concepts, including both the design development and subsequent detailed evaluation. Design criteria were developed to ensure compliance with regulatory requirements and typical company objectives. Accurate analysis methods were selected and/or developed where practical, and conservative approaches were used where significant approximations were necessary. Design sizing activities supported subsequent development by providing representative design configurations for structural evaluation and by identifying the critical performance issues. Significant program efforts were directed towards assessing structural performance predictive capability. The structural database collected to perform this assessment was intimately linked to the manufacturing scale-up activities to ensure inclusion of manufacturing-induced performance traits. Mechanical tests were conducted to support the development and critical evaluation of analysis methods addressing internal loads, stability, ultimate strength, attachment and splice strength, and damage tolerance. Unresolved aspects of these performance issues were identified as part of the assessments, providing direction for future development.

Orbitofrontal Cortex Volume and Effortful Control as Prospective Risk Factors for Substance Use Disorder in Adolescence.

PubMed

Cheetham, Ali; Allen, Nicholas B; Whittle, Sarah; Simmons, Julian; Yücel, Murat; Lubman, Dan I

2017-01-01

Orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) dysfunction has been proposed to increase the risk for developing a substance use disorder (SUD) during adolescence. In this study, we suggest that a reduction in OFC volumes might underlie temperament-based risk factors for SUD, and examined whether smaller OFC volumes during early adolescence could predict later development of SUD. Adolescents (n = 107; 58 male, 49 female) underwent structural MRI and completed a self-report measure of temperamental effortful control at age 12. At 3 subsequent assessments (aged 15, 16, and 18) SUD was assessed via a semi-structured clinical interview. By the third assessment, 24 participants (22.4%) had received a lifetime diagnosis of SUD. Smaller volumes of the left OFC, right OFC, and left medial subregions predicted lifetime history of SUD by age 18. Volumes of the left OFC and left lateral subregions were positively correlated with effortful control, and left OFC volumes mediated the relationship between effortful control and SUD. Smaller volumes of the OFC and low effortful control during adolescence appear to be associated phenotypes that increase the risk of subsequent SUD. Further studies examining the temporal sequence of these risk factors are needed to fully understand this relationship. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Developmental Trajectories of Compensatory Exercise and Fasting Behavior across the Middle School Years

PubMed Central

Davis, Heather A.; Guller, Leila; Smith, Gregory T.

2016-01-01

Compensatory exercise and fasting behavior, in the absence of binge eating and purging, appear to be important eating disorder behaviors that are associated with dysfunction, but little is known about these behaviors in youth. We studied the trajectories of their development in non-binge eating and non-purging girls during early adolescence. Using a longitudinal design, we assessed 564 girls six times over the three years of middle school (grades 6 through 8) and developed trajectories specifying different developmental patterns in relation to the behaviors. Prior to this period, when the girls were in 5th grade (elementary school), we assessed risk factors to predict girls’ subsequent trajectory group membership. Compensatory exercise trajectory groups included a non-engagement group, a group that increased in the behavior, and a group that decreased in the behavior. There were two fasting trajectory groups, one consistently engaging in the behavior and the other consistently not. Elementary school levels of depression, eating expectancies, and thinness expectancies predicted subsequent trajectory group membership. Risk for compensatory exercise and fasting should be evaluated as early as in 5th grade. Targeted interventions should focus on girls in late elementary school or middle school, as this appears to be a critical developmental and maintenance period for compensatory exercise and fasting behavior. PMID:27544806

Learned helplessness: validity and reliability of depressive-like states in mice.

PubMed

Chourbaji, S; Zacher, C; Sanchis-Segura, C; Dormann, C; Vollmayr, B; Gass, P

2005-12-01

The learned helplessness paradigm is a depression model in which animals are exposed to unpredictable and uncontrollable stress, e.g. electroshocks, and subsequently develop coping deficits for aversive but escapable situations (J.B. Overmier, M.E. Seligman, Effects of inescapable shock upon subsequent escape and avoidance responding, J. Comp. Physiol. Psychol. 63 (1967) 28-33 ). It represents a model with good similarity to the symptoms of depression, construct, and predictive validity in rats. Despite an increased need to investigate emotional, in particular depression-like behaviors in transgenic mice, so far only a few studies have been published using the learned helplessness paradigm. One reason may be the fact that-in contrast to rats (B. Vollmayr, F.A. Henn, Learned helplessness in the rat: improvements in validity and reliability, Brain Res. Brain Res. Protoc. 8 (2001) 1-7)--there is no generally accepted learned helplessness protocol available for mice. This prompted us to develop a reliable helplessness procedure in C57BL/6N mice, to exclude possible artifacts, and to establish a protocol, which yields a consistent fraction of helpless mice following the shock exposure. Furthermore, we validated this protocol pharmacologically using the tricyclic antidepressant imipramine. Here, we present a mouse model with good face and predictive validity that can be used for transgenic, behavioral, and pharmacological studies.

Identical anthropometric characteristics of impaired fasting glucose combined with impaired glucose tolerance and newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes: anthropometric indicators to predict hyperglycaemia in a community-based prospective cohort study in southwest China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Fang; Wan, Qin; Cao, Hongyi; Tang, Lizhi; Li, Daigang; Lü, Qingguo; Yan, Zhe; Li, Jing; Yang, Qiu; Zhang, Yuwei; Tong, Nanwei

2018-01-01

Objectives To assess the anthropometric characteristics of normoglycaemic individuals who subsequently developed hyperglycaemia, and to evaluate the validity of these measures to predict prediabetes and diabetes. Design A community-based prospective cohort study. Participants In total, 1885 residents with euglycaemia at baseline from six communities were enrolled. Setting Sichuan, southwest China. Primary outcome measures The incidences of prediabetes and diabetes were the primary outcomes. Methods The waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) of all participants were measured at baseline and during follow-up. A 75 g glucose oral glucose tolerance test was conducted at each survey. Results During a median of 3.00 (IQR: 2.92–4.17) years follow-up, the cumulative incidence of isolated impaired fasting glucose (IFG), isolated impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), IFG combined with IGT (IFG+IGT), and newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus (NDDM) were 8.44%, 18.14%, 8.06% and 13.79%, respectively. WHtR, BMI, WC and WHR were significantly different among subjects who subsequently progressed to isolated IFG or IGT, IFG+IGT or NDDM (p<0.05). The anthropometric characteristics of IFG+IGT subjects were similar to those of the NDDM population (p>0.005). All the baseline anthropometric measurements were useful for the prediction of future prediabetes and NDDM (p<0.05). The optimal thresholds for the four measurements were calculated for the prediction of hyperglycaemia, with a WHtR value of 0.52 performing best to identify isolated IFG or IGT, IFG+IGT and NDDM. Conclusions Anthropometric measures, especially WHtR, could be used to predict hyperglycaemia 3 years in advance. Distinct from isolated IFG and IGT, the individuals who developed combined IFG+IGT had identical anthropometric profiles to those who progressed to NDDM. PMID:29743321

On various metrics used for validation of predictive QSAR models with applications in virtual screening and focused library design.

PubMed

Roy, Kunal; Mitra, Indrani

2011-07-01

Quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) have important applications in drug discovery research, environmental fate modeling, property prediction, etc. Validation has been recognized as a very important step for QSAR model development. As one of the important objectives of QSAR modeling is to predict activity/property/toxicity of new chemicals falling within the domain of applicability of the developed models and QSARs are being used for regulatory decisions, checking reliability of the models and confidence of their predictions is a very important aspect, which can be judged during the validation process. One prime application of a statistically significant QSAR model is virtual screening for molecules with improved potency based on the pharmacophoric features and the descriptors appearing in the QSAR model. Validated QSAR models may also be utilized for design of focused libraries which may be subsequently screened for the selection of hits. The present review focuses on various metrics used for validation of predictive QSAR models together with an overview of the application of QSAR models in the fields of virtual screening and focused library design for diverse series of compounds with citation of some recent examples.

Italian Advisory Board: sFlt-1/PlGF ratio and preeclampsia, state of the art and developments in diagnostic, therapeutic and clinical management.

PubMed

Di Martino, Daniela; Cetin, Irene; Frusca, Tiziana; Ferrazzi, Enrico; Fuse', Federica; Gervasi, Maria Teresa; Plebani, Mario; Todros, Tullia

2016-11-01

Extensive research has been published, showing the usefulness of angiogenic markers in both diagnosis and subsequent prediction and management of preeclampsia and placenta-related disorders. Recent evidence provides a helpful cut off for the Elecsys ratio sFlt-1 to PlGF, that predicts preeclampsia development in women with sign and symptoms, before its clinical onset in the short term. In Europe, no accordance exists for the use of such kind of test in clinical practice; only German guidelines have recently taken it into account, as a diagnostic aid for preeclampsia, in conjunction with other clinical findings. This panel of Italian experts recently met, in order to review the literature and to promote the evaluation of the clinical utility of sFlt-1/PlGF ratio at the Italian country level, as regards: prediction of preeclampsia during the first trimester, prediction or exclusion of new onset or recurrence in patients with risk factors for preeclampsia, triage of patients suffering from gestational hypertension, evaluation of disease severity, prediction of adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rumination, anxiety, depressive symptoms and subsequent depression in adolescents at risk for psychopathology: a longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Paul O; Croudace, Tim J; Goodyer, Ian M

2013-10-08

A ruminative style of responding to low mood is associated with subsequent high depressive symptoms and depressive disorder in children, adolescents and adults. Scores on self-report rumination scales correlate strongly with scores on anxiety and depression symptom scales. This may confound any associations between rumination and subsequent depression. Our sample comprised 658 healthy adolescents at elevated risk for psychopathology. This study applied ordinal item (non-linear) factor analysis to pooled items from three self-report questionnaires to explore whether there were separate, but correlated, constructs of rumination, depression and anxiety. It then tested whether rumination independently predicted depressive disorder and depressive symptoms over the subsequent 12 months, after adjusting for confounding variables. We identified a single rumination factor, which was correlated with factors representing cognitive symptoms of depression, somatic symptoms of depression and anxiety symptoms; and one factor representing adaptive responses to low mood. Elevated rumination scores predicted onset of depressive disorders over the subsequent year (p = 0.035), and levels of depressive symptoms 12 months later (p < 0.0005), after adjustment for prior levels of depressive and anxiety symptoms. High rumination predicts onset of depressive disorder in healthy adolescents. Therapy that reduces rumination and increases distraction/problem-solving may reduce onset and relapse rates of depression.

The effect of current and anticipated body pride and shame on dietary restraint and caloric intake.

PubMed

Troop, Nicholas A

2016-01-01

Studies have established a link between body shame and eating disorder symptoms and behaviours. However, few have differentiated current feelings of body shame from those anticipated with weight change and none has examined the effects of these on subsequent eating behaviour. In this paper, a measure of body pride and shame was developed (Study 1) for the purposes of using it in a subsequent longitudinal study (Study 2). Two hundred and forty two women were recruited from a university and the general population and participated in Study 1, completing the Body Pride and Shame (BPS) scale either online or offline, as well as a number of validating measures. In Study 2, 40 female students completed the BPS, as well as a measure of dietary restraint, and subsequently recorded their dietary intake everyday for the next seven days. Study 1 identified and validated subscales of current body pride/shame as well as pride/shame that is anticipated were the individual to gain weight or lose weight. In Study 2, over and above levels of dietary restraint, current feelings of body shame predicted eating more calories over the next 7 days while the anticipation of shame with weight gain predicted eating fewer calories. Although previous research has only measured current feelings of body shame, the present studies showed that anticipated shame also impacts on subsequent behaviour. Interventions that regulate anticipated as well as current emotions, and that do not merely challenge cognitions, may be important in changing eating behaviour. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting the Individual Risk of Acute Severe Colitis at Diagnosis

PubMed Central

Cesarini, Monica; Collins, Gary S.; Rönnblom, Anders; Santos, Antonieta; Wang, Lai Mun; Sjöberg, Daniel; Parkes, Miles; Keshav, Satish

2017-01-01

Abstract Background and Aims: Acute severe colitis [ASC] is associated with major morbidity. We aimed to develop and externally validate an index that predicted ASC within 3 years of diagnosis. Methods: The development cohort included patients aged 16–89 years, diagnosed with ulcerative colitis [UC] in Oxford and followed for 3 years. Primary outcome was hospitalization for ASC, excluding patients admitted within 1 month of diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression examined the adjusted association of seven risk factors with ASC. Backwards elimination produced a parsimonious model that was simplified to create an easy-to-use index. External validation occurred in separate cohorts from Cambridge, UK, and Uppsala, Sweden. Results: The development cohort [Oxford] included 34/111 patients who developed ASC within a median 14 months [range 1–29]. The final model applied the sum of 1 point each for extensive disease, C-reactive protein [CRP] > 10mg/l, or haemoglobin < 12g/dl F or < 14g/dl M at diagnosis, to give a score from 0/3 to 3/3. This predicted a 70% risk of developing ASC within 3 years [score 3/3]. Validation cohorts included different proportions with ASC [Cambridge = 25/96; Uppsala = 18/298]. Of those scoring 3/3 at diagnosis, 18/18 [Cambridge] and 12/13 [Uppsala] subsequently developed ASC. Discriminant ability [c-index, where 1.0 = perfect discrimination] was 0.81 [Oxford], 0.95 [Cambridge], 0.97 [Uppsala]. Internal validation using bootstrapping showed good calibration, with similar predicted risk across all cohorts. A nomogram predicted individual risk. Conclusions: An index applied at diagnosis reliably predicts the risk of ASC within 3 years in different populations. Patients with a score 3/3 at diagnosis may merit early immunomodulator therapy. PMID:27647858

Remembered or Forgotten?—An EEG-Based Computational Prediction Approach

PubMed Central

Sun, Xuyun; Qian, Cunle; Chen, Zhongqin; Wu, Zhaohui; Luo, Benyan; Pan, Gang

2016-01-01

Prediction of memory performance (remembered or forgotten) has various potential applications not only for knowledge learning but also for disease diagnosis. Recently, subsequent memory effects (SMEs)—the statistical differences in electroencephalography (EEG) signals before or during learning between subsequently remembered and forgotten events—have been found. This finding indicates that EEG signals convey the information relevant to memory performance. In this paper, based on SMEs we propose a computational approach to predict memory performance of an event from EEG signals. We devise a convolutional neural network for EEG, called ConvEEGNN, to predict subsequently remembered and forgotten events from EEG recorded during memory process. With the ConvEEGNN, prediction of memory performance can be achieved by integrating two main stages: feature extraction and classification. To verify the proposed approach, we employ an auditory memory task to collect EEG signals from scalp electrodes. For ConvEEGNN, the average prediction accuracy was 72.07% by using EEG data from pre-stimulus and during-stimulus periods, outperforming other approaches. It was observed that signals from pre-stimulus period and those from during-stimulus period had comparable contributions to memory performance. Furthermore, the connection weights of ConvEEGNN network can reveal prominent channels, which are consistent with the distribution of SME studied previously. PMID:27973531

Power and energy dissipation in subsequent return strokes as predicted by a new return stroke model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooray, Vernon

1991-01-01

Recently, Cooray introduced a new return stroke model which is capable of predicting the temporal behavior of the return stroke current and the return stroke velocity as a function of the height along the return stroke channel. The authors employed this model to calculate the power and energy dissipation in subsequent return strokes. The results of these calculations are presented here. It was concluded that a large fraction of the total energy available for the dart leader-subsequent stroke process is dissipated in the dart leader stage. The peak power per unit length dissipated in a subsequent stroke channel element decreases with increasing height of that channel element from ground level. For a given channel element, the peak power dissipation increases with increasing current in that channel element. The peak electrical power dissipation in a typical subsequent return stroke is about 1.5 times 10(exp 11) W. The energy dissipation in a subsequent stroke increases with increasing current in the return stroke channel, and for a typical subsequent stroke, the energy dissipation per unit length is about 5.0 times 10(exp 3) J/m.

Self-Perceived Cooking Skills in Emerging Adulthood Predict Better Dietary Behaviors and Intake 10 Years Later: A Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Utter, Jennifer; Larson, Nicole; Laska, Melissa N; Winkler, Megan; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

2018-05-01

To determine whether perceived cooking skills in emerging adulthood predicts better nutrition a decade later. Data were collected as part of the Project Eating and Activity in Teens and Young Adults longitudinal study. Participants reported on adequacy of cooking skills in 2002-2003 (age 18-23 years) and subsequently reported on nutrition-related outcomes in 2015-2016 (age 30-35 years) (n = 1,158). Separate regression models were used to examine associations between cooking skills at age 18-23 years and each subsequent outcome. One fourth of participants described their cooking skills as very adequate at 18-23 years, with no statistically significant differences by sociodemographic characteristics. Reports of very adequate cooking skills at age 18-23 years predicted better nutrition-related outcomes 10 years later, such as more frequent preparation of meals including vegetables (P < .001) and less frequent fast food consumption (P < .001). Developing adequate cooking skills by emerging adulthood may have long-term benefits for nutrition over a decade later. Ongoing and new interventions to enhance cooking skills during adolescence and emerging adulthood are warranted but require strong evaluation designs that observe young people over a number of years. Copyright © 2018 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Different Risk Perception Measures in Predicting Seasonal Influenza Vaccination among Healthy Chinese Adults in Hong Kong: A Prospective Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Liao, Qiuyan; Wong, Wing Sze; Fielding, Richard

2013-01-01

Background Risk perception is a reported predictor of vaccination uptake, but which measures of risk perception best predict influenza vaccination uptake remain unclear. Methodology During the main influenza seasons (between January and March) of 2009 (Wave 1) and 2010 (Wave 2),505 Chinese students and employees from a Hong Kong university completed an online survey. Multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to assess how well different risk perceptions measures in Wave 1 predicted vaccination uptake against seasonal influenza in Wave 2. Principal Findings The results of the multivariate logistic regression models showed that feeling at risk (β = 0.25, p = 0.021) was the better predictor compared with probability judgment while probability judgment (β = 0.25, p = 0.029 ) was better than beliefs about risk in predicting subsequent influenza vaccination uptake. Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk seemed to predict the same aspect of subsequent vaccination uptake because their associations with vaccination uptake became insignificant when paired into the logistic regression model. Similarly, to compare the four scales for assessing probability judgment in predicting vaccination uptake, the 7-point verbal scale remained a significant and stronger predictor for vaccination uptake when paired with other three scales; the 6-point verbal scale was a significant and stronger predictor when paired with the percentage scale or the 2-point verbal scale; and the percentage scale was a significant and stronger predictor only when paired with the 2-point verbal scale. Conclusions/Significance Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk are not well differentiated by Hong Kong Chinese people. Feeling at risk, an affective-cognitive dimension of risk perception predicts subsequent vaccination uptake better than do probability judgments. Among the four scales for assessing risk probability judgment, the 7-point verbal scale offered the best predictive power for subsequent vaccination uptake. PMID:23894292

Comparison of different risk perception measures in predicting seasonal influenza vaccination among healthy Chinese adults in Hong Kong: a prospective longitudinal study.

PubMed

Liao, Qiuyan; Wong, Wing Sze; Fielding, Richard

2013-01-01

Risk perception is a reported predictor of vaccination uptake, but which measures of risk perception best predict influenza vaccination uptake remain unclear. During the main influenza seasons (between January and March) of 2009 (Wave 1) and 2010 (Wave 2),505 Chinese students and employees from a Hong Kong university completed an online survey. Multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to assess how well different risk perceptions measures in Wave 1 predicted vaccination uptake against seasonal influenza in Wave 2. The results of the multivariate logistic regression models showed that feeling at risk (β = 0.25, p = 0.021) was the better predictor compared with probability judgment while probability judgment (β = 0.25, p = 0.029 ) was better than beliefs about risk in predicting subsequent influenza vaccination uptake. Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk seemed to predict the same aspect of subsequent vaccination uptake because their associations with vaccination uptake became insignificant when paired into the logistic regression model. Similarly, to compare the four scales for assessing probability judgment in predicting vaccination uptake, the 7-point verbal scale remained a significant and stronger predictor for vaccination uptake when paired with other three scales; the 6-point verbal scale was a significant and stronger predictor when paired with the percentage scale or the 2-point verbal scale; and the percentage scale was a significant and stronger predictor only when paired with the 2-point verbal scale. Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk are not well differentiated by Hong Kong Chinese people. Feeling at risk, an affective-cognitive dimension of risk perception predicts subsequent vaccination uptake better than do probability judgments. Among the four scales for assessing risk probability judgment, the 7-point verbal scale offered the best predictive power for subsequent vaccination uptake.

The PRONE score: an algorithm for predicting doctors’ risks of formal patient complaints using routinely collected administrative data

PubMed Central

Spittal, Matthew J; Bismark, Marie M; Studdert, David M

2015-01-01

Background Medicolegal agencies—such as malpractice insurers, medical boards and complaints bodies—are mostly passive regulators; they react to episodes of substandard care, rather than intervening to prevent them. At least part of the explanation for this reactive role lies in the widely recognised difficulty of making robust predictions about medicolegal risk at the individual clinician level. We aimed to develop a simple, reliable scoring system for predicting Australian doctors’ risks of becoming the subject of repeated patient complaints. Methods Using routinely collected administrative data, we constructed a national sample of 13 849 formal complaints against 8424 doctors. The complaints were lodged by patients with state health service commissions in Australia over a 12-year period. We used multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify predictors of subsequent complaints, defined as another complaint occurring within 2 years of an index complaint. Model estimates were then used to derive a simple predictive algorithm, designed for application at the doctor level. Results The PRONE (Predicted Risk Of New Event) score is a 22-point scoring system that indicates a doctor's future complaint risk based on four variables: a doctor's specialty and sex, the number of previous complaints and the time since the last complaint. The PRONE score performed well in predicting subsequent complaints, exhibiting strong validity and reliability and reasonable goodness of fit (c-statistic=0.70). Conclusions The PRONE score appears to be a valid method for assessing individual doctors’ risks of attracting recurrent complaints. Regulators could harness such information to target quality improvement interventions, and prevent substandard care and patient dissatisfaction. The approach we describe should be replicable in other agencies that handle large numbers of patient complaints or malpractice claims. PMID:25855664

Nonrandom Acts of Kindness: Parasympathetic and Subjective Empathic Responses to Sadness Predict Children’s Prosociality

PubMed Central

Miller, Jonas G.; Nuselovici, Jacob N.; Hastings, Paul D.

2016-01-01

How does empathic physiology unfold as a dynamic process, and which aspect of empathy predicts children’s kindness? In response to empathy induction videos, 4–6 year-old children (N = 180) showed an average pattern of dynamic respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) change characterized by early RSA suppression followed by RSA recovery, and modest subsequent suppression during positive resolution of the empathic event. Children’s capacity for this pattern of flexible RSA change was associated with their subjective empathic feelings, which were concurrently associated with more sympathetic and prosocial responses to others. Conversely, only children’s dynamic RSA change longitudinally predicted prosocial behavior two years later. These findings have implications for understanding the dynamic and multifaceted nature of empathy, and its relation with prosocial development. PMID:28262932

Forecasting ozone concentrations in the east of Croatia using nonparametric Neural Network Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovač-Andrić, Elvira; Sheta, Alaa; Faris, Hossam; Gajdošik, Martina Šrajer

2016-07-01

Ozone is one of the most significant secondary pollutants with numerous negative effects on human health and environment including plants and vegetation. Therefore, more effort is made recently by governments and associations to predict ozone concentrations which could help in establishing better plans and regulation for environment protection. In this study, we use two Artificial Neural Network based approaches (MPL and RBF) to develop, for the first time, accurate ozone prediction models, one for urban and another one for rural area in the eastern part of Croatia. The evaluation of actual against the predicted ozone concentrations revealed that MLP and RBF models are very competitive for the training and testing data in the case of Kopački Rit area whereas in the case of Osijek city, MLP shows better evaluation results with 9% improvement in the correlation coefficient. Furthermore, subsequent feature selection process has improved the prediction power of RBF network.

Process Optimization of Dual-Laser Beam Welding of Advanced Al-Li Alloys Through Hot Cracking Susceptibility Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Yingtao; Robson, Joseph D.; Riekehr, Stefan; Kashaev, Nikolai; Wang, Li; Lowe, Tristan; Karanika, Alexandra

2016-07-01

Laser welding of advanced Al-Li alloys has been developed to meet the increasing demand for light-weight and high-strength aerospace structures. However, welding of high-strength Al-Li alloys can be problematic due to the tendency for hot cracking. Finding suitable welding parameters and filler material for this combination currently requires extensive and costly trial and error experimentation. The present work describes a novel coupled model to predict hot crack susceptibility (HCS) in Al-Li welds. Such a model can be used to shortcut the weld development process. The coupled model combines finite element process simulation with a two-level HCS model. The finite element process model predicts thermal field data for the subsequent HCS hot cracking prediction. The model can be used to predict the influences of filler wire composition and welding parameters on HCS. The modeling results have been validated by comparing predictions with results from fully instrumented laser welds performed under a range of process parameters and analyzed using high-resolution X-ray tomography to identify weld defects. It is shown that the model is capable of accurately predicting the thermal field around the weld and the trend of HCS as a function of process parameters.

Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU): protocol for the development and validation of a bedside clinical prediction rule.

PubMed

Granholm, Anders; Perner, Anders; Krag, Mette; Hjortrup, Peter Buhl; Haase, Nicolai; Holst, Lars Broksø; Marker, Søren; Collet, Marie Oxenbøll; Jensen, Aksel Karl Georg; Møller, Morten Hylander

2017-03-09

Mortality prediction scores are widely used in intensive care units (ICUs) and in research, but their predictive value deteriorates as scores age. Existing mortality prediction scores are imprecise and complex, which increases the risk of missing data and decreases the applicability bedside in daily clinical practice. We propose the development and validation of a new, simple and updated clinical prediction rule: the Simplified Mortality Score for use in the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU). During the first phase of the study, we will develop and internally validate a clinical prediction rule that predicts 90-day mortality on ICU admission. The development sample will comprise 4247 adult critically ill patients acutely admitted to the ICU, enrolled in 5 contemporary high-quality ICU studies/trials. The score will be developed using binary logistic regression analysis with backward stepwise elimination of candidate variables, and subsequently be converted into a point-based clinical prediction rule. The general performance, discrimination and calibration of the score will be evaluated, and the score will be internally validated using bootstrapping. During the second phase of the study, the score will be externally validated in a fully independent sample consisting of 3350 patients included in the ongoing Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit trial. We will compare the performance of the SMS-ICU to that of existing scores. We will use data from patients enrolled in studies/trials already approved by the relevant ethical committees and this study requires no further permissions. The results will be reported in accordance with the Transparent Reporting of multivariate prediction models for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement, and submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Temperamental Differences in Children’s Reactions to Peer Victimization

PubMed Central

Sugimura, Niwako; Rudolph, Karen D.

2015-01-01

Objective This research examined the hypothesis that temperament and sex moderate the contribution of peer victimization to children’s subsequent adjustment (aggression and depressive symptoms). Method Children (125 boys, 158 girls; M age = 7.95 years, SD = 0.32; 77.7% White, 22.3% minority) and teachers reported on overt and relational victimization. Parents rated children’s temperament (inhibitory control and negative emotionality) and depressive symptoms, and teachers reported on children’s overt and relational aggression. Results Across a one-year time period, (a) overt victimization predicted overt aggression in girls with poor inhibitory control; (b) overt and relational victimization predicted depressive symptoms in girls with high negative emotionality; and (c) relational victimization predicted depressive symptoms in boys with low negative emotionality. Conclusions This research helps to explain individual variation in children’s reactions to peer victimization, and has implications for person-by-environment models of development. Moreover, this research informs the development of targeted intervention programs for victimized youth that bolster specific resources depending on their temperament. PMID:22420650

Identification of consensus biomarkers for predicting non-genotoxic hepatocarcinogens

PubMed Central

Huang, Shan-Han; Tung, Chun-Wei

2017-01-01

The assessment of non-genotoxic hepatocarcinogens (NGHCs) is currently relying on two-year rodent bioassays. Toxicogenomics biomarkers provide a potential alternative method for the prioritization of NGHCs that could be useful for risk assessment. However, previous studies using inconsistently classified chemicals as the training set and a single microarray dataset concluded no consensus biomarkers. In this study, 4 consensus biomarkers of A2m, Ca3, Cxcl1, and Cyp8b1 were identified from four large-scale microarray datasets of the one-day single maximum tolerated dose and a large set of chemicals without inconsistent classifications. Machine learning techniques were subsequently applied to develop prediction models for NGHCs. The final bagging decision tree models were constructed with an average AUC performance of 0.803 for an independent test. A set of 16 chemicals with controversial classifications were reclassified according to the consensus biomarkers. The developed prediction models and identified consensus biomarkers are expected to be potential alternative methods for prioritization of NGHCs for further experimental validation. PMID:28117354

Perioperative prediction of agitated (hyperactive) delirium after cardiac surgery in adults - The development of a practical scorecard.

PubMed

Mufti, Hani N; Hirsch, Gregory M

2017-12-01

Delirium is a temporary mental disorder that occurs frequently among hospitalized patients. In this study we sought to develop a user-friendly scorecard based on perioperative features to identify patients at risk of developing agitated delirium after cardiac surgery. Retrospective analysis was performed on adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery in a single center. A parsimonious predictive model was created, with subsequent internal validation. Then a simple scorecard was developed that can be used to predict the probability of agitated delirium. Among the 5584 patients who met the study criteria, 614 (11.4%) developed postoperative agitated delirium. Independent predictors of postoperative agitated delirium were age, male gender, history of cerebrovascular disease, procedure other than isolated Coronary Arteries Bypass Surgery, transfusion of blood products within the first 48h, mechanical ventilation for >24h, length of stay in the Intensive Care Unit. The scorecard stratified patients into 4 categories at risk of postoperative agitated delirium ranging from <5% to >30%. Using a large cohort of adult patient's undergoing cardiac surgery, a user-friendly scorecard was developed and validated, which will facilitate the implementation of timely interventions to mitigate adverse effects of agitated delirium in this high risk population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Journal Article Survival models are developed here to predict response and time-to-response for mortality in rabbits following exposures to single or multiple aerosol doses of Bacillus anthracis spores. Hazard function models were developed for a multiple dose dataset to predict the probability of death through specifying dose-response functions and the time between exposure and the time-to-death (TTD). Among the models developed, the best-fitting survival model (baseline model) has an exponential dose-response model with a Weibull TTD distribution. Alternative models assessed employ different underlying dose-response functions and use the assumption that, in a multiple dose scenario, earlier doses affect the hazard functions of each subsequent dose. In addition, published mechanistic models are analyzed and compared with models developed in this paper. None of the alternative models that were assessed provided a statistically significant improvement in fit over the baseline model. The general approach utilizes simple empirical data analysis to develop parsimonious models with limited reliance on mechanistic assumptions. The baseline model predicts TTDs consistent with reported results from three independent high-dose rabbit datasets. More accurate survival models depend upon future development of dose-response datasets specifically designed to assess potential multiple dose effects on response and time-to-response. The process used in this paper to dev

Combination of blood flow asymmetry in the cerebral and cerebellar hemispheres on brain perfusion SPECT predicts 5-year outcome in patients with symptomatic unilateral major cerebral artery occlusion.

PubMed

Nomura, Jun-ichi; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Saito, Hideo; Terasaki, Kazunori; Matsumoto, Yoshiyasu; Takahashi, Yoshihiro; Ogasawara, Yasushi; Saura, Hiroaki; Yoshida, Koji; Sato, Yuiko; Kubo, Yoshitaka; Ogawa, Akira

2014-03-01

Misery perfusion increases the risk of stroke recurrence in patients with symptomatic major cerebral artery occlusion. The ratio of brain perfusion contralateral-to-affected asymmetry in the cerebellar hemisphere to brain perfusion affected-to-contralateral asymmetry in the cerebral hemisphere (CblPR/CbrPR) indicates affected-to-contralateral asymmetry of oxygen extraction fraction (OEF) in the cerebral hemisphere. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether the CblPR/CbrPR on brain perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) predicts 5-year outcomes in patients with symptomatic unilateral occlusion of the middle cerebral artery (MCA) or internal carotid artery (ICA). Brain perfusion was assessed using N-isopropyl-p-[123I]-iodoamphetamine (123I-IMP) SPECT in 70 patients. A region of interest (ROI) was manually placed in the bilateral MCA territories and in the bilateral cerebellar hemispheres, and the CblPR/CbrPR was calculated. All patients were prospectively followed for 5 years. The primary end points were stroke recurrence or death. A total of 17 patients exhibited the primary end points, 11 of whom experienced subsequent ipsilateral strokes. Multivariate analysis revealed that only high CblPR/CbrPR was significantly associated with the development of the primary end point or subsequent ipsilateral strokes (95% confidential limits [CIs], 1.130-3.145; P  =  0.0114 or 95% CIs, 2.558-5.140; P  =  0.0045, respectively). The CblPR/CbrPR provided 65% (11/17) or 91% (10/11) sensitivity and 88% (47/53) or 88% (52/59) specificity in predicting the primary end point or subsequent ipsilateral strokes, respectively. The CblPR/CbrPR on brain perfusion SPECT predicts 5-year outcomes in patients with symptomatic unilateral occlusion of the MCA or ICA.

Variable selection models for genomic selection using whole-genome sequence data and singular value decomposition.

PubMed

Meuwissen, Theo H E; Indahl, Ulf G; Ødegård, Jørgen

2017-12-27

Non-linear Bayesian genomic prediction models such as BayesA/B/C/R involve iteration and mostly Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which are computationally expensive, especially when whole-genome sequence (WGS) data are analyzed. Singular value decomposition (SVD) of the genotype matrix can facilitate genomic prediction in large datasets, and can be used to estimate marker effects and their prediction error variances (PEV) in a computationally efficient manner. Here, we developed, implemented, and evaluated a direct, non-iterative method for the estimation of marker effects for the BayesC genomic prediction model. The BayesC model assumes a priori that markers have normally distributed effects with probability [Formula: see text] and no effect with probability (1 - [Formula: see text]). Marker effects and their PEV are estimated by using SVD and the posterior probability of the marker having a non-zero effect is calculated. These posterior probabilities are used to obtain marker-specific effect variances, which are subsequently used to approximate BayesC estimates of marker effects in a linear model. A computer simulation study was conducted to compare alternative genomic prediction methods, where a single reference generation was used to estimate marker effects, which were subsequently used for 10 generations of forward prediction, for which accuracies were evaluated. SVD-based posterior probabilities of markers having non-zero effects were generally lower than MCMC-based posterior probabilities, but for some regions the opposite occurred, resulting in clear signals for QTL-rich regions. The accuracies of breeding values estimated using SVD- and MCMC-based BayesC analyses were similar across the 10 generations of forward prediction. For an intermediate number of generations (2 to 5) of forward prediction, accuracies obtained with the BayesC model tended to be slightly higher than accuracies obtained using the best linear unbiased prediction of SNP effects (SNP-BLUP model). When reducing marker density from WGS data to 30 K, SNP-BLUP tended to yield the highest accuracies, at least in the short term. Based on SVD of the genotype matrix, we developed a direct method for the calculation of BayesC estimates of marker effects. Although SVD- and MCMC-based marker effects differed slightly, their prediction accuracies were similar. Assuming that the SVD of the marker genotype matrix is already performed for other reasons (e.g. for SNP-BLUP), computation times for the BayesC predictions were comparable to those of SNP-BLUP.

Why is past depression the best predictor of future depression? Stress generation as a mechanism of depression continuity in girls.

PubMed

Rudolph, Karen D; Flynn, Megan; Abaied, Jamie L; Groot, Alison; Thompson, Renee

2009-07-01

This study examined whether a transactional interpersonal life stress model helps to explain the continuity in depression over time in girls. Youth (86 girls, 81 boys; M age = 12.41, SD = 1.19) and their caregivers participated in a three-wave longitudinal study. Depression and episodic life stress were assessed with semistructured interviews. Path analysis provided support for a transactional interpersonal life stress model in girls but not in boys, wherein depression predicted the generation of interpersonal stress, which predicted subsequent depression. Moreover, self-generated interpersonal stress partially accounted for the continuity of depression over time. Although depression predicted noninterpersonal stress generation in girls (but not in boys), noninterpersonal stress did not predict subsequent depression.

The role of maternal serumbeta-HCG and PAPP-A levels at gestational weeks 10 to 14 in the prediction of pre-eclampsia

PubMed Central

Ozdamar, Ozkan; Gun, Ismet; Keskin, Ugur; Kocak, Necmettin; Mungen, Ercument

2014-01-01

Objective: We aimed to detect whether maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A levels and NT measurements vary between normal pregnancies and those that subsequently develop pre-eclampsia and to evaluate the role of these screening serum analytes in the prediction of pre-eclampsia. Methods: Using a case-control study design, we identified all women who had been screened by double test within 11+0 and 13+6 weeks of gestation and who had developed pre-eclampsia during the subsequent pregnancy course, over a 6-year period between January 2006 and December 2012 at two tertiary referral hospital. All women who had undergone a double test during that time, without a diagnosis of pre-eclampsia and who had not had any adverse obstetric outcomes, were also identified, and three women among them were randomly selected as controls for each case. Maternal and neonatal data were abstracted from the medical records and PAPP-A, β-hCG, NT and CRL MoM values were compared between the two groups. Results: Although β-hCG values show no statistically significant difference (p=0.882), PAPP-A levels were significantly reduced in the pre-eclampsia group compared to the control group (p<0.001). NT and CRL values showed no significant difference between the two groups (p=0.674 and p=0.558, respectively). Conclusion: Measuring PAPP-A in the first trimester may be useful in the prediction of pre-eclampsia. PMID:24948981

Stability of lava lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witham, Fred; Llewellin, Edward W.

2006-11-01

A physical model of a generic lava lake system is developed. We derive the requisite conditions for the existence of an 'equilibrium lava lake' in which magmastatic pressure at the base of the conduit balances the pressure in the underlying magmatic reservoir. The stability of this lava lake system is tested by investigating the response of the system to perturbation. We develop a graphical method, based on the system's pressure-depth profile, to predict the subsequent behaviour of the system. Despite the simplicity of the modelled system, we find a broad behavioural spectrum. Initially, the rise of bubbles through the magma is ignored. In this case, both stable, long-lived lava lakes, and unstable lakes that are prone to sudden draining, are predicted. The stability of the system is shown to be controlled by lake-conduit geometry, the solubility and gas expansion laws and the magma's volatile content. We show that an unstable lake must collapse to a new, stable equilibrium. Subsequent recharge of the system by, for example, conduit overturn, would promote a return to the original equilibrium, giving rise to cyclic behaviour. Such a mechanism is consistent with lava lake behaviour during the 1983-1984 Pu'u 'O'o eruption of Kilauea. When the rise of bubbles through the magma is considered, our model predicts that stable lakes must drain over time. We, therefore, deduce that persistently degassing, stable lava lakes, such as those observed at Mt. Erebus, Antarctica, and Mauna Ulu, Kilauea, Hawaii, must have an effective conduit convection mechanism or an exogenous supply of bubbles from depth.

Serotonin transporter genotype, salivary cortisol, neuroticism and life events: impact on subsequent psychopathology in healthy twins at high and low risk for affective disorder.

PubMed

Vinberg, Maj; Miskowiak, Kamilla; Kessing, Lars Vedel

2014-01-03

To investigate if cortisol alone or in interaction with other risk factors (familial risk, the serotonin transporter genotype, neuroticism and life events (LEs)) predicts onset of psychiatric disorder in healthy individuals at heritable risk. In a high-risk study, 234 healthy monozygotic and dizygotic twins with or without a co-twin history of affective disorder (high and low risk twins) were baseline assessed. Participants were followed up for seven years and then reassessed with a personal interview revealing whether they had developed psychiatric illness. 36 participants (15.4%) developed psychiatric disorder. Using Cox proportional hazards ratio (HR) estimates neither morning nor evening salivary cortisol at baseline did predict illness onset. In multivariate Cox models, the two-way interaction between morning cortisol and LEs lifetime before baseline was significantly associated with onset. Further, the HR of onset was higher concerning individuals carrying the short allele of the 5-HTTPLR and having experienced more LEs lifetime. Familial risk for affective disorder predicted illness and the risk of onset was further increased in individuals at familial risk carrying the short allele of the 5-HTTPLR. Cortisol levels alone do not increase the risk of onset of psychiatric illness but the interaction of a lower cortisol level and the experience of more LEs do. The 5-HTTLPR genotype seems to interact and contribute to increased stress vulnerability in combination with other stress indicators of illness thereby adding to the risk of subsequent psychopathology. © 2013.

Right-ventricular global longitudinal strain may predict neo-aortic arch obstruction after Norwood/Sano procedure in children with hypoplastic left heart syndrome.

PubMed

Raucci, Frank J; Seckeler, Michael D; Saunders, Christine; Gangemi, James J; Peeler, Benjamin B; Jayakumar, K Anitha

2013-01-01

Neo-aortic arch obstruction (NAAO) is a common complication following the Norwood/Sano procedure (NP) for hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS) and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. However, there is currently no objective method for predicting which patients will develop NAAO. This study was designed to test the hypothesis that hemodynamic changes from development of NAAO after NP in patients with HLHS will lead to changes in myocardial dynamics that could be detected before clinical symptoms develop with strain analysis using velocity vector imaging. Patients with HLHS who had at least one cardiac catheterization after NP were identified retrospectively. Strain analysis was performed on all echocardiograms preceding the first catheterization and any subsequent catheterization performed for intervention on NAAO. Twelve patients developed NAAO and 30 patients never developed NAAO. Right ventricular strain was worse in the group that developed NAAO (-6.2 vs. -8.6 %, p = 0.040) at a median of 59 days prior to diagnosis of NAAO. Those patients that developed NAAO following NP were significantly younger at the time of first catheterization than those that did not develop NAAO (92 ± 50 vs. 140 ± 36 days, p = 0.001). This study demonstrates that right ventricular GLS is abnormal in HLHS patients following NP and worsening right ventricular strain may be predictive of the future development of NAAO.

Logistic Mixed Models to Investigate Implicit and Explicit Belief Tracking.

PubMed

Lages, Martin; Scheel, Anne

2016-01-01

We investigated the proposition of a two-systems Theory of Mind in adults' belief tracking. A sample of N = 45 participants predicted the choice of one of two opponent players after observing several rounds in an animated card game. Three matches of this card game were played and initial gaze direction on target and subsequent choice predictions were recorded for each belief task and participant. We conducted logistic regressions with mixed effects on the binary data and developed Bayesian logistic mixed models to infer implicit and explicit mentalizing in true belief and false belief tasks. Although logistic regressions with mixed effects predicted the data well a Bayesian logistic mixed model with latent task- and subject-specific parameters gave a better account of the data. As expected explicit choice predictions suggested a clear understanding of true and false beliefs (TB/FB). Surprisingly, however, model parameters for initial gaze direction also indicated belief tracking. We discuss why task-specific parameters for initial gaze directions are different from choice predictions yet reflect second-order perspective taking.

Competence with Fractions Predicts Gains in Mathematics Achievement

PubMed Central

Bailey, Drew H.; Hoard, Mary K.; Nugent, Lara; Geary, David C.

2012-01-01

Competence with fractions predicts later mathematics achievement, but the co-developmental pattern between fractions knowledge and mathematics achievement is not well understood. We assessed this co-development through examination of the cross-lagged relation between a measure of conceptual knowledge of fractions and mathematics achievement in sixth and seventh grade (n = 212). The cross-lagged effects indicated that performance on the sixth grade fractions concepts measure predicted one year gains in mathematics achievement (β = .14, p<.01), controlling for the central executive component of working memory and intelligence, but sixth grade mathematics achievement did not predict gains on the fractions concepts measure (β = .03, p>.50). In a follow-up assessment, we demonstrated that measures of fluency with computational fractions significantly predicted seventh grade mathematics achievement above and beyond the influence of fluency in computational whole number arithmetic, performance on number fluency and number line tasks, and central executive span and intelligence. Results provide empirical support for the hypothesis that competence with fractions underlies, in part, subsequent gains in mathematics achievement. PMID:22832199

Evaluation of a Novel Global Immunity Assay to Predict Infection in Organ Transplant Recipients.

PubMed

Mian, Muhtashim; Natori, Yoichiro; Ferreira, Victor; Selzner, Nazia; Husain, Shahid; Singer, Lianne; Kim, S Joseph; Humar, Atul; Kumar, Deepali

2018-04-17

Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) are predisposed to infection due to the need for lifelong immunosuppression, although tools to measure the overall degree of immunosuppression are limited. In this study, we used a novel global cell-mediated immunity (CMI) assay to quantify the degree of immunosuppression and predict subsequent infections. Consecutive SOTRs were enrolled and provided whole blood to conduct the global CMI assay (QuantiFERON Monitor) at 1, 3, and 6 months posttransplant. The assay measures plasma interferon gamma (IFN-γ) levels after stimulation of whole blood with antigens that stimulate both innate and adaptive immunity. Bacterial, viral, and fungal infections were prospectively recorded. We enrolled 137 patients who provided CMI measurements on at least 1 study timepoint. Median age was 58 years; transplant types were kidney (32.1%), liver (30.7%), and lung (36.5%). At least 1 episode of infection occurred in 32 of 137 (23.4%) patients between 1 and 3 months, 34 of 135 (25.1%) between 3 and 6 months, and 39 of 132 (29.5%) between 6 and 12 months. IFN-γ levels were significantly lower in those with at least 1 episode of infection vs no infection at month 1 (P = .04), month 3 (P = .05), and month 6 (P = .006). Patients who developed opportunistic infections (OIs) also showed a significantly lower CMI than those without OI at months 3 and 6. Using a cutoff value of ≤10 IU/mL of IFN-γ, there was a 2- to 3-fold greater likelihood of subsequent infection in those with lower CMI. We show that a novel global immunity assay is able to quantify the level of immunosuppression and predict the risk of subsequent infection episodes in organ transplant recipients.

Prediction of subacute infarct size in acute middle cerebral artery stroke: comparison of perfusion-weighted imaging and apparent diffusion coefficient maps.

PubMed

Drier, Aurélie; Tourdias, Thomas; Attal, Yohan; Sibon, Igor; Mutlu, Gurkan; Lehéricy, Stéphane; Samson, Yves; Chiras, Jacques; Dormont, Didier; Orgogozo, Jean-Marc; Dousset, Vincent; Rosso, Charlotte

2012-11-01

To compare perfusion-weighted (PW) imaging and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps in prediction of infarct size and growth in patients with acute middle cerebral artery infarct. This study was approved by the local institutional review board. Written informed consent was obtained from all 80 patients. Subsequent infarct volume and growth on follow-up magnetic resonance (MR) images obtained within 6 days were compared with the predictions based on PW images by using a time-to-peak threshold greater than 4 seconds and ADC maps obtained less than 12 hours after middle cerebral artery infarct. ADC- and PW imaging-predicted infarct growth areas and infarct volumes were correlated with subsequent infarct growth and follow-up diffusion-weighted (DW) imaging volumes. The impact of MR imaging time delay on the correlation coefficient between the predicted and subsequent infarct volumes and individual predictions of infarct growth by using receiver operating characteristic curves were assessed. The infarct volume measurements were highly reproducible (concordance correlation coefficient [CCC] of 0.965 and 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.949, 0.976 for acute DW imaging; CCC of 0.995 and 95% CI: 0.993, 0.997 for subacute DW imaging). The subsequent infarct volume correlated (P<.0001) with ADC- (ρ=0.853) and PW imaging- (ρ=0.669) predicted volumes. The correlation was higher for ADC-predicted volume than for PW imaging-predicted volume (P<.005), but not when the analysis was restricted to patients without recanalization (P=.07). The infarct growth correlated (P<.0001) with PW imaging-DW imaging mismatch (ρ=0.470) and ADC-DW imaging mismatch (ρ=0.438), without significant differences between both methods (P=.71). The correlations were similar among time delays with ADC-predicted volumes but decreased with PW imaging-based volumes beyond the therapeutic window. Accuracies of ADC- and PW imaging-based predictions of infarct growth in an individual prediction were similar (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] of 0.698 and 95% CI: 0.585, 0.796 vs AUC of 0.749 and 95% CI: 0.640, 0.839; P=.48). The ADC-based method was as accurate as the PW imaging-based method for evaluating infarct growth and size in the subacute phase. © RSNA, 2012

Developing and testing a decision model for predicting influenza vaccination compliance.

PubMed Central

Carter, W B; Beach, L R; Inui, T S; Kirscht, J P; Prodzinski, J C

1986-01-01

Influenza vaccination has long been recommended for elderly high-risk patients, yet national surveys indicate that vaccination compliance rates are remarkably low (20 percent). We conducted a study to model prospectively the flu shot decisions and subsequent behavior of an elderly and/or chronically diseased (at high risk for complications of influenza) ambulatory care population at the Seattle VA Medical Center. Prior to the 1980-81 flu shot season, a random (stratified by disease) sample of 63 patients, drawn from the total population of high-risk patients in the general medicine clinic, was interviewed to identify patient-defined concerns regarding flu shots. Six potential consequences of influenza and nine of vaccination were emphasized by patients and provided the content for a weighted hierarchical utility model questionnaire. The utility model provides an operational framework for (1) obtaining subjective value and relative importance judgments from patients; (2) combining these judgments to obtain a prediction of behavioral intention and behavior for each patient; and, if the model is valid (predictive of behavior), (3) identifying those factors which are most salient to patient's decisions and subsequent behavior. Prior to the 1981-82 flu season, the decision model questionnaire was administered to 350 other high-risk patients from the same general medicine clinic population. The decision model correctly predicted behavioral intention for 87 percent and vaccination behavior for 82 percent of this population and, more importantly, differentiated shot "takers" and "nontakers" along several attitudinal dimensions that suggest specific content areas for clinical compliance intervention strategies. PMID:3949541

Predicting client attendance at further treatment following drug and alcohol detoxification: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Implementation Intentions.

PubMed

Kelly, Peter J; Leung, Joanne; Deane, Frank P; Lyons, Geoffrey C B

2016-11-01

Despite clinical recommendations that further treatment is critical for successful recovery following drug and alcohol detoxification, a large proportion of clients fail to attend treatment after detoxification. In this study, individual factors and constructs based on motivational and volitional models of health behaviour were examined as predictors of post-detoxification treatment attendance. The sample consisted of 220 substance-dependent individuals participating in short-term detoxification programs provided by The Australian Salvation Army. The Theory of Planned Behaviour and Implementation Intentions were used to predict attendance at subsequent treatment. Follow-up data were collected for 177 participants (81%), with 104 (80%) of those participants reporting that they had either attended further formal treatment (e.g. residential rehabilitation programs, outpatient counselling) or mutual support groups in the 2 weeks after leaving the detoxification program. Logistic regression examined the predictors of further treatment attendance. The full model accounted for 21% of the variance in treatment attendance, with attitude and Implementation Intentions contributing significantly to the prediction. Findings from the present study would suggest that assisting clients to develop a specific treatment plan, as well as helping clients to build positive perceptions about subsequent treatment, will promote greater attendance at further treatment following detoxification. [Kelly PJ, Leung J, Deane FP, Lyons GCB. Predicting client attendance at further treatment following drug and alcohol detoxification: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Implementation Intentions. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:678-685]. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes after Abnormal First Trimester Screening for Aneuploidy

PubMed Central

Goetzl, Laura

2010-01-01

Women with abnormal first trimester screening but with a normal karyotype are at risk for adverse pregnancy outcomes. A nuchal translucency >3.5mm is associated with an increased risk of subsequent pregnancy loss, fetal infection, fetal heart abnormalities and other structural abnormalities. Abnormal first trimester analytes are also associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes but the predictive value is less impressive. As a single marker, PAPP-A <1st%ile has a good predictive value for subsequent fetal growth restriction. Women with PAPP-A<5th%ile should undergo subsequent risk assessment with routine MSAFP screening with the possible addition of uterine artery PI assessment in the midtrimester. PMID:20638576

Does subsequent criminal justice involvement predict foster care and termination of parental rights for children born to incarcerated women?

PubMed

Kubiak, Sheryl Pimlott; Kasiborski, Natalie; Karim, Nidal; Schmittel, Emily

2012-01-01

This longitudinal study of 83 incarcerated women, who gave birth during incarceration and retained their parental rights through brief sentences, examines the intersection between subsequent criminal justice involvement postrelease and child welfare outcomes. Ten years of multiple state-level administrative data sets are used to determine if arrest or conviction predict foster care and/or termination of parental rights. Findings indicate that only felony arrest is a significant predictor of foster care involvement. Additionally, 69% of mothers retained legal custody, despite subsequent criminal involvement for many, suggesting supportive parenting programs and resources need to be available to these women throughout and after incarceration.

Detection of bloodstream infections and prediction of bronchopulmonary dysplasia in preterm neonates with an electronic nose.

PubMed

Rogosch, Tobias; Herrmann, Nina; Maier, Rolf F; Domann, Eugen; Hattesohl, Akira; Koczulla, Andreas Rembert; Zemlin, Michael

2014-09-01

We show that smellprints of volatile organic components measured with an electronic nose (Cyranose 320; Smiths Detection Group Ltd, Watford, United Kingdom) differ between tracheal aspirates from preterm neonates with or without laboratory-confirmed bloodstream infections and with or without subsequent development of bronchopulmonary dysplasia. Tracheal aspirate smellprints could be useful noninvasive diagnostic markers for preterm neonates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Athermal Mechanisms of Size-Dependent Crystal Flow Gleaned from Three-Dimensional Discrete Dislocation Simulations

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

Sevillano, et. al . directly developed a definition of the single-slip glide-resistance correlation length, 10//5.8 o  , from 2d simulations of single...dislocation percolation through point-obstacle fields [35, 36]. Subsequently, predictions for the size- dependence of * from Gil Sevillano, et. al ...Sevillano, et. al ., and microcrystal deformation experiments was perhaps fortuitous, significant merit remains within their treatment. The more general

Predicting the 10-Year Risks of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Chinese Population: The China-PAR Project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China).

PubMed

Yang, Xueli; Li, Jianxin; Hu, Dongsheng; Chen, Jichun; Li, Ying; Huang, Jianfeng; Liu, Xiaoqing; Liu, Fangchao; Cao, Jie; Shen, Chong; Yu, Ling; Lu, Fanghong; Wu, Xianping; Zhao, Liancheng; Wu, Xigui; Gu, Dongfeng

2016-11-08

The accurate assessment of individual risk can be of great value to guiding and facilitating the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, prediction models in common use were formulated primarily in white populations. The China-PAR project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China) is aimed at developing and validating 10-year risk prediction equations for ASCVD from 4 contemporary Chinese cohorts. Two prospective studies followed up together with a unified protocol were used as the derivation cohort to develop 10-year ASCVD risk equations in 21 320 Chinese participants. The external validation was evaluated in 2 independent Chinese cohorts with 14 123 and 70 838 participants. Furthermore, model performance was compared with the Pooled Cohort Equations reported in the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline. Over 12 years of follow-up in the derivation cohort with 21 320 Chinese participants, 1048 subjects developed a first ASCVD event. Sex-specific equations had C statistics of 0.794 (95% confidence interval, 0.775-0.814) for men and 0.811 (95% confidence interval, 0.787-0.835) for women. The predicted rates were similar to the observed rates, as indicated by a calibration χ 2 of 13.1 for men (P=0.16) and 12.8 for women (P=0.17). Good internal and external validations of our equations were achieved in subsequent analyses. Compared with the Chinese equations, the Pooled Cohort Equations had lower C statistics and much higher calibration χ 2 values in men. Our project developed effective tools with good performance for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction among a Chinese population that will help to improve the primary prevention and management of cardiovascular disease. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Development and application of a three dimensional numerical model for predicting pollutant and sediment transport using an Eulerian-Lagrangian marker particle technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pavish, D. L.; Spaulding, M. L.

1977-01-01

A computer coded Lagrangian marker particle in Eulerian finite difference cell solution to the three dimensional incompressible mass transport equation, Water Advective Particle in Cell Technique, WAPIC, was developed, verified against analytic solutions, and subsequently applied in the prediction of long term transport of a suspended sediment cloud resulting from an instantaneous dredge spoil release. Numerical results from WAPIC were verified against analytic solutions to the three dimensional incompressible mass transport equation for turbulent diffusion and advection of Gaussian dye releases in unbounded uniform and uniformly sheared uni-directional flow, and for steady-uniform plug channel flow. WAPIC was utilized to simulate an analytic solution for non-equilibrium sediment dropout from an initially vertically uniform particle distribution in one dimensional turbulent channel flow.

Life Sciences Implications of Lunar Surface Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Steven P.; Norcross, Jason R.; Abercromby, Andrew F.; Gernhardt, Michael L.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this report is to document preliminary, predicted, life sciences implications of expected operational concepts for lunar surface extravehicular activity (EVA). Algorithms developed through simulation and testing in lunar analog environments were used to predict crew metabolic rates and ground reaction forces experienced during lunar EVA. Subsequently, the total metabolic energy consumption, the daily bone load stimulus, total oxygen needed, and other variables were calculated and provided to Human Research Program and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate stakeholders. To provide context to the modeling, the report includes an overview of some scenarios that have been considered. Concise descriptions of the analog testing and development of the algorithms are also provided. This document may be updated to remain current with evolving lunar or other planetary surface operations, assumptions and concepts, and to provide additional data and analyses collected during the ongoing analog research program.

The Changing Pattern and Implications of Multiple Organ Failure (MOF) After Blunt Injury With Hemorrhagic Shock

PubMed Central

Minei, Joseph P.; Cuschieri, Joseph; Sperry, Jason; Moore, Ernest E.; West, Michael A.; Harbrecht, Brian G.; O’Keefe, Grant E.; Cohen, Mitchell J.; Moldawer, Lyle L.; Tompkins, Ronald G.; Maier, Ronald V.

2012-01-01

Objective To describe the incidence of post-injury multiple organ failure (MOF) and its relationship to nosocomial infection and mortality in trauma centers employing evidence-based standard operating procedures (SOPs). Design Prospective cohort study wherein SOPs were developed and implemented to optimize post-injury care. Setting Seven U.S. Level I trauma centers. Patients Severely injured patients (> 16 years old) with a blunt mechanism, systolic hypotension (< 90 mmHg) and/or base deficit (> 6 meq/L), need for blood transfusion within the first 12 hrs, and an abbreviated injury score (AIS) ≥ two excluding brain injury were eligible for inclusion. Measurements and Main Results 1,002 patients were enrolled and 916 met inclusion criteria. Daily markers of organ dysfunction were prospectively recorded for all patients while receiving intensive care. Overall, 29% of patients developed MOF. Development of MOF was early (median time of two days), short - lived, and predicted an increased incidence of NI, whereas, persistence of MOF predicted mortality. However, surprisingly, NI did not increase subsequent MOF and there was no evidence of a “second-hit” induced late onset MOF. Conclusions MOF remains common after severe injury. Contrary to current paradigms, the onset is only early, and not bimodal, nor is it associated with a “second-hit” induced late onset. MOF is associated with subsequent NI and increased mortality. SOP-driven interventions may be associated with a decrease in late MOF and morbidity. PMID:22020243

Endotoxemia Following Multiple Trauma: Risk Factors and Prognostic Implications.

PubMed

Charbonney, Emmanuel; Tsang, Jennifer Y; Li, Yangmei; Klein, David; Duque, Patricia; Romaschin, Alexander; Marshall, John C

2016-02-01

To evaluate the prevalence and time course of systemic endotoxemia following severe multiple trauma, to define its risk factors, and to explore the correlation between post-trauma endotoxemia and organ dysfunction. Prospective single-center cohort study. Emergency department and ICU of adult tertiary care level I trauma center. Forty-eight severely injured (Injury Severity Score ≥ 16) patients, admitted to ICU within 24 hours of injury. None. Endotoxemia was not evident on initial presentation, but developed subsequently in 75% of patients, even in the absence of Gram-negative infection. Nonsurviving patients had higher endotoxin levels than survivors on day 1 (endotoxemia, 0.48 vs 0.28; p = 0.048). Shock at admission, or surgery within the first 48 hours after trauma, was associated with higher endotoxin levels and predicted subsequent maximal endotoxemia, after adjusting for other significant covariates. Maximal endotoxemia levels were higher in patients who developed organ dysfunction, reflected in a cumulative Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score greater than 25, and patients with an intermediate endotoxemia level (≥ 0.4) had more cardiovascular dysfunction. It is the first study to detect increasing levels of endotoxemia following multiple trauma. Shock and early surgery predict the development of endotoxemia; endotoxemia is particularly associated with cardiovascular dysfunction. However, Gram-negative infections are uncommon in these patients, suggesting that the gastrointestinal tract is the dominant reservoir of endotoxin. Endotoxin may be an appropriate therapeutic target in patients who have sustained severe multiple trauma.

Hopelessness, individualism, collectivism, and substance use among young rural-to-urban migrants in China.

PubMed

Du, Hongfei; Li, Xiaoming; Lin, Danhua; Tam, Cheuk Chi

2014-01-01

The current study aimed to investigate the impact of individualism, collectivism, and hopelessness on substance use. Hopelessness was hypothesized as a mediator between individualism and substance use, and between collectivism and substance use. We tested the hypothesis using a survey of 641 young rural-to-urban migrants in China. Consistent with our hypotheses, individualistic orientation predicted increased hopelessness and subsequently predicted more substance use, whereas collectivistic orientation was associated with decreased hopelessness and subsequently predicted less substance use. Hopelessness fully mediated the relations between individualism and substance use and between collectivism and substance use. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings were discussed.

Assessing Craving and its Relationship to Subsequent Prescription Opioid Use Among Treatment-Seeking Prescription Opioid Dependent Patients

PubMed Central

McHugh, R. Kathryn; Fitzmaurice, Garrett M.; Carroll, Kathleen M.; Griffin, Margaret L.; Hill, Kevin P.; Wasan, Ajay D.; Weiss, Roger D.

2014-01-01

Background Craving is viewed as a core feature of substance use disorders and has been shown to predict future drug use, particularly over the short term. Accordingly, craving is often assessed in treatment settings as a marker of risk for subsequent drug use. The identification of the briefest measure that maintains predictive validity is of particular value for both clinical and research settings to minimize assessment burden while maintaining utility for the prediction of use. Methods Data from a multi-site clinical trial of treatment for prescription opioid dependence were examined to evaluate whether a brief, 3-item craving scale administered each week predicted urine-confirmed self report of prescription opioid use in the subsequent week. Logistic regression models examining the association between craving and presence or absence of opioid use in the following week were conducted, controlling for opioid use in the previous week, treatment condition, and lifetime history of heroin use. Results Greater craving was associated with a higher odds of prescription opioid use in the following week. For each one-unit increase on this 10-point scale, the odds of using opioids in the subsequent week was 17% higher. In addition to an item assessing urges, items assessing cue-induced craving and perceived likelihood of relapse in an environment where drugs were previously used contributed uniquely to this association. Conclusions A brief measure of prescription opioid craving predicted prescription opioid use among individuals in treatment. This measure offers an efficient strategy to inform the assessment of risk for use in this population. PMID:25454409

The unfolding impact of leader identity entrepreneurship on burnout, work engagement, and turnover intentions.

PubMed

Steffens, Niklas K; Yang, Jie; Jetten, Jolanda; Haslam, S Alexander; Lipponen, Jukka

2018-07-01

The present research expands upon previous theory and empirical work concerning the leadership-health link by examining the lagged effects of leader identity entrepreneurship (i.e., leaders' creation of a sense of "we" and "us" among team members) on team members' burnout, work engagement and turnover intentions. We report results from a 2-wave field study with employees from a large solar panel producing organization in China conducted over a 10-month period. Findings indicate that perceived leader identity entrepreneurship predicted greater subsequent work engagement among team members, as well as lower subsequent burnout and turnover intentions. Moreover, effects on reduced turnover intentions were mediated by reduced burnout and increased work engagement. These findings are the first to examine how leader identity entrepreneurship impacts subsequent employee health and turnover intentions and suggest that leaders help to promote health and well-being in the workplace by creating and developing a sense of shared identity among those they lead. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Intergenerational Transmission of Maladaptive Parenting Strategies in Families of Adolescent Mothers: Effects from Grandmothers to Young Children

PubMed Central

Seay, Danielle M.; Jahromi, Laudan B.; Umaña-Taylor, Adriana J.; Updegraff, Kimberly A.

2015-01-01

The current longitudinal study examined the effect of the transmission of maladaptive parenting strategies from grandmothers to adolescent mothers on children’s subsequent development. Mexican-origin adolescent mothers (N = 204) participated in home interviews when the adolescent’s child (89 boys, 60 girls) was 2, 3, 4, and 5 years old. Grandmothers’ psychological control toward the adolescent mother was positively related to adolescents’ potential for abuse 1 year later, which was subsequently positively related to adolescents’ punitive discipline toward their young child. In addition, adolescent mothers’ punitive discipline subsequently predicted greater externalizing problems and less committed compliance among their children. Adolescent mothers’ potential for abuse and punitive discipline mediated the effects of grandmothers’ psychological control on children’s externalizing problems. Finally, adolescent mothers’ potential for abuse mediated the effect of grandmothers’ psychological control on adolescent mothers’ punitive discipline. Results highlight the salience of long-term intergenerational effects of maladaptive parenting on children’s behavior. PMID:26521948

Rumination, anxiety, depressive symptoms and subsequent depression in adolescents at risk for psychopathology: a longitudinal cohort study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A ruminative style of responding to low mood is associated with subsequent high depressive symptoms and depressive disorder in children, adolescents and adults. Scores on self-report rumination scales correlate strongly with scores on anxiety and depression symptom scales. This may confound any associations between rumination and subsequent depression. Methods Our sample comprised 658 healthy adolescents at elevated risk for psychopathology. This study applied ordinal item (non-linear) factor analysis to pooled items from three self-report questionnaires to explore whether there were separate, but correlated, constructs of rumination, depression and anxiety. It then tested whether rumination independently predicted depressive disorder and depressive symptoms over the subsequent 12 months, after adjusting for confounding variables. Results We identified a single rumination factor, which was correlated with factors representing cognitive symptoms of depression, somatic symptoms of depression and anxiety symptoms; and one factor representing adaptive responses to low mood. Elevated rumination scores predicted onset of depressive disorders over the subsequent year (p = 0.035), and levels of depressive symptoms 12 months later (p < 0.0005), after adjustment for prior levels of depressive and anxiety symptoms. Conclusion High rumination predicts onset of depressive disorder in healthy adolescents. Therapy that reduces rumination and increases distraction/problem-solving may reduce onset and relapse rates of depression. PMID:24103296

Early deictic but not other gestures predict later vocabulary in both typical development and autism.

PubMed

Özçalışkan, Şeyda; Adamson, Lauren B; Dimitrova, Nevena

2016-08-01

Research with typically developing children suggests a strong positive relation between early gesture use and subsequent vocabulary development. In this study, we ask whether gesture production plays a similar role for children with autism spectrum disorder. We observed 23 18-month-old typically developing children and 23 30-month-old children with autism spectrum disorder interact with their caregivers (Communication Play Protocol) and coded types of gestures children produced (deictic, give, conventional, and iconic) in two communicative contexts (commenting and requesting). One year later, we assessed children's expressive vocabulary, using Expressive Vocabulary Test. Children with autism spectrum disorder showed significant deficits in gesture production, particularly in deictic gestures (i.e. gestures that indicate objects by pointing at them or by holding them up). Importantly, deictic gestures-but not other gestures-predicted children's vocabulary 1 year later regardless of communicative context, a pattern also found in typical development. We conclude that the production of deictic gestures serves as a stepping-stone for vocabulary development. © The Author(s) 2015.

The associations of earlier trauma exposures and history of mental disorders with PTSD after subsequent traumas.

PubMed

Kessler, R C; Aguilar-Gaxiola, S; Alonso, J; Bromet, E J; Gureje, O; Karam, E G; Koenen, K C; Lee, S; Liu, H; Pennell, B-E; Petukhova, M V; Sampson, N A; Shahly, V; Stein, D J; Atwoli, L; Borges, G; Bunting, B; de Girolamo, G; Gluzman, S F; Haro, J M; Hinkov, H; Kawakami, N; Kovess-Masfety, V; Navarro-Mateu, F; Posada-Villa, J; Scott, K M; Shalev, A Y; Ten Have, M; Torres, Y; Viana, M C; Zaslavsky, A M

2017-09-19

Although earlier trauma exposure is known to predict posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after subsequent traumas, it is unclear whether this association is limited to cases where the earlier trauma led to PTSD. Resolution of this uncertainty has important implications for research on pretrauma vulnerability to PTSD. We examined this issue in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys with 34 676 respondents who reported lifetime trauma exposure. One lifetime trauma was selected randomly for each respondent. DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition) PTSD due to that trauma was assessed. We reported in a previous paper that four earlier traumas involving interpersonal violence significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas (odds ratio (OR)=1.3-2.5). We also assessed 14 lifetime DSM-IV mood, anxiety, disruptive behavior and substance disorders before random traumas. We show in the current report that only prior anxiety disorders significantly predicted PTSD in a multivariate model (OR=1.5-4.3) and that these disorders interacted significantly with three of the earlier traumas (witnessing atrocities, physical violence victimization and rape). History of witnessing atrocities significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas only among respondents with prior PTSD (OR=5.6). Histories of physical violence victimization (OR=1.5) and rape after age 17 years (OR=17.6) significantly predicted only among respondents with no history of prior anxiety disorders. Although only preliminary due to reliance on retrospective reports, these results suggest that history of anxiety disorders and history of a limited number of earlier traumas might usefully be targeted in future prospective studies as distinct foci of research on individual differences in vulnerability to PTSD after subsequent traumas.Molecular Psychiatry advance online publication, 19 September 2017; doi:10.1038/mp.2017.194.

The ARAC-RODOS-WSPEEDI Information Exchange Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sullivan, T J

1999-09-01

Under the auspices of a US DOE-JAPAN Memorandum of Understanding JAERI and LLNL agreed to develop and evaluate a prototype information exchange protocol for nuclear accident emergency situations. This project received some interest from the US DOS and FEMA as it fits nicely under the umbrella of the G-7's GEMINI (Global Emergency Management Information Network Initiative) project. Because of LLNL/ARAC and JAERV WSPEEDI interest in nuclear accident consequence assessment and hazard prediction on all scales, to include global, we were happy to participate. Subsequent to the Spring 1997 RODOS-ARAC Workshop a Memorandum of Agreement was developed to enhance mutual collaborationmore » on matters of emergency systems development. In the summer of 1998 the project leaders of RODOS, WSPEEDI and ARAC met at FZK and agreed to join in a triangular collaboration on the development and demonstration of an emergency information exchange protocol. JAERI and FZK are engaged in developing a formal cooperation agreement. The purpose of this project is to evaluate the prototype information protocol application for technical feasibility and mutual benefit through simulated (real) event; quick exchange of atmospheric modeling products and environmental data during emergencies, distribution of predicted results to other countries having no prediction capabilities, and utilization of the link for collaborative studies.« less

A diagnostic model for the detection of sensitization to wheat allergens was developed and validated in bakery workers.

PubMed

Suarthana, Eva; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Moons, Karel G; de Monchy, Jan; Grobbee, Diederick; Heederik, Dick; Meijer, Evert

2010-09-01

To develop and validate a prediction model to detect sensitization to wheat allergens in bakery workers. The prediction model was developed in 867 Dutch bakery workers (development set, prevalence of sensitization 13%) and included questionnaire items (candidate predictors). First, principal component analysis was used to reduce the number of candidate predictors. Then, multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to develop the model. Internal validation and extent of optimism was assessed with bootstrapping. External validation was studied in 390 independent Dutch bakery workers (validation set, prevalence of sensitization 20%). The prediction model contained the predictors nasoconjunctival symptoms, asthma symptoms, shortness of breath and wheeze, work-related upper and lower respiratory symptoms, and traditional bakery. The model showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area of 0.76 (and 0.75 after internal validation). Application of the model in the validation set gave a reasonable discrimination (ROC area=0.69) and good calibration after a small adjustment of the model intercept. A simple model with questionnaire items only can be used to stratify bakers according to their risk of sensitization to wheat allergens. Its use may increase the cost-effectiveness of (subsequent) medical surveillance.

Numerical modeling of on-orbit propellant motion resulting from an impulsive acceleration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aydelott, John C.; Mjolsness, Raymond C.; Torrey, Martin D.; Hochstein, John I.

1987-01-01

In-space docking and separation maneuvers of spacecraft that have large fluid mass fractions may cause undesirable spacecraft motion in response to the impulsive-acceleration-induced fluid motion. An example of this potential low gravity fluid management problem arose during the development of the shuttle/Centaur vehicle. Experimentally verified numerical modeling techniques were developed to establish the propellant dynamics, and subsequent vehicle motion, associated with the separation of the Centaur vehicle from the shuttle orbiter cargo bay. Although the shuttle/Centaur development activity was suspended, the numerical modeling techniques are available to predict on-orbit liquid motion resulting from impulsive accelerations for other missions and spacecraft.

Identical vs. Conceptual repetition FN400 and Parietal Old/New ERP components occur during encoding and predict subsequent memory

PubMed Central

Griffin, Michael; DeWolf, Melissa; Keinath, Alexander; Liu, Xiaonan; Reder, Lynne

2013-01-01

This Event-Related Potential (ERP) study investigated whether components commonly measured at test, such as the FN400 and the parietal old/new components, could be observed during encoding and, if so, whether they would predict different levels of accuracy on a subsequent memory test. ERPs were recorded while subjects classified pictures of objects as man-made or natural. Some objects were only classified once while others were classified twice during encoding, sometimes with an identical picture, and other times with a different exemplar from the same category. A subsequent surprise recognition test required subjects to judge whether each probe word corresponded to a picture shown earlier, and if so whether there were two identical pictures that corresponded to the word probe, two different pictures, or just one picture. When the second presentation showed a duplicate of an earlier picture, the FN400 effect (a significantly less negative deflection on the second presentation) was observed regardless of subsequent memory response; however, when the second presentation showed a different exemplar of the same concept, the FN400 effect was only marginally significant. In contrast, the parietal old/new effect was robust for the second presentation of conceptual repetitions when the test probe was subsequently recognized, but not for identical repetitions. These findings suggest that ERP components that are typically observed during an episodic memory test can be observed during an incidental encoding task, and that they are predictive of the degree of subsequent memory performance. PMID:23528265

Semiempirical studies of atomic structure. Progress report, 1 July 1984-1 January 1985

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis, L.J.

1985-01-01

Through the acquisition and systematization of empirical data, remarkably precise methods for predicting excitation energies, transition wavelengths, transition probabilities, level lifetimes, ionization potentials, core polarizabilities, and core penetrabilities have been and are being developed and applied. Although the data base for heavy, highly ionized atoms is still sparse, much new information has become available since this program was begun in 1980. The purpose of the project is to perform needed measurements and to utilize the available data through parametrized extrapolations and interpolations along isoelectronic, homologous, and Rydberg sequences to provide predictions for large classes of quantities with a precision thatmore » is sharpened by subsequent measurements.« less

Proteins and Their Interacting Partners: An Introduction to Protein-Ligand Binding Site Prediction Methods.

PubMed

Roche, Daniel Barry; Brackenridge, Danielle Allison; McGuffin, Liam James

2015-12-15

Elucidating the biological and biochemical roles of proteins, and subsequently determining their interacting partners, can be difficult and time consuming using in vitro and/or in vivo methods, and consequently the majority of newly sequenced proteins will have unknown structures and functions. However, in silico methods for predicting protein-ligand binding sites and protein biochemical functions offer an alternative practical solution. The characterisation of protein-ligand binding sites is essential for investigating new functional roles, which can impact the major biological research spheres of health, food, and energy security. In this review we discuss the role in silico methods play in 3D modelling of protein-ligand binding sites, along with their role in predicting biochemical functionality. In addition, we describe in detail some of the key alternative in silico prediction approaches that are available, as well as discussing the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) and the Continuous Automated Model EvaluatiOn (CAMEO) projects, and their impact on developments in the field. Furthermore, we discuss the importance of protein function prediction methods for tackling 21st century problems.

Post processing of protein-compound docking for fragment-based drug discovery (FBDD): in-silico structure-based drug screening and ligand-binding pose prediction.

PubMed

Fukunishi, Yoshifumi

2010-01-01

For fragment-based drug development, both hit (active) compound prediction and docking-pose (protein-ligand complex structure) prediction of the hit compound are important, since chemical modification (fragment linking, fragment evolution) subsequent to the hit discovery must be performed based on the protein-ligand complex structure. However, the naïve protein-compound docking calculation shows poor accuracy in terms of docking-pose prediction. Thus, post-processing of the protein-compound docking is necessary. Recently, several methods for the post-processing of protein-compound docking have been proposed. In FBDD, the compounds are smaller than those for conventional drug screening. This makes it difficult to perform the protein-compound docking calculation. A method to avoid this problem has been reported. Protein-ligand binding free energy estimation is useful to reduce the procedures involved in the chemical modification of the hit fragment. Several prediction methods have been proposed for high-accuracy estimation of protein-ligand binding free energy. This paper summarizes the various computational methods proposed for docking-pose prediction and their usefulness in FBDD.

To what extent do joint attention, imitation, and object play behaviors in infancy predict later communication and intellectual functioning in ASD?

PubMed

Poon, Kenneth K; Watson, Linda R; Baranek, Grace T; Poe, Michele D

2012-06-01

The extent to which early social communication behaviors predict later communication and intellectual outcomes was investigated via retrospective video analysis. Joint attention, imitation, and complex object play behaviors were coded from edited home videos featuring scenes of 29 children with ASD at 9-12 and/or 15-18 months. A quantitative interval recording of behavior and a qualitative rating of the developmental level were applied. Social communication behaviors increased between 9-12 and 15-18 months. Their mean level during infancy, but not the rate of change, predicted both Vineland Communication scores and intellectual functioning at 3-7 years. The two methods of measurement yielded similar results. Thus, early social communicative behaviors may play pivotal roles in the development of subsequent communication and intellectual functioning.

Why is Past Depression the Best Predictor of Future Depression? Stress Generation as a Mechanism of Depression Continuity in Girls

PubMed Central

Rudolph, Karen D.; Flynn, Megan; Abaied, Jamie; Groot, Alison; Thompson, Renee

2009-01-01

This study examined whether a transactional interpersonal life stress model helps to explain the continuity in depression over time in girls. Youth (86 girls, 81 boys; M age = 12.41, SD = 1.19) and their caregivers participated in a three-wave longitudinal study. Depression and episodic life stress were assessed with semi-structured interviews. Path analysis provided support for a transactional interpersonal life stress model in girls but not in boys, wherein depression predicted the generation of interpersonal stress, which predicted subsequent depression. Moreover, self-generated interpersonal stress partially accounted for the continuity of depression over time. Although depression predicted noninterpersonal stress generation in girls (but not in boys), noninterpersonal stress did not predict subsequent depression. PMID:20183635

Analysis of spatial distribution of land cover maps accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatami, R.; Mountrakis, G.; Stehman, S. V.

2017-12-01

Land cover maps have become one of the most important products of remote sensing science. However, classification errors will exist in any classified map and affect the reliability of subsequent map usage. Moreover, classification accuracy often varies over different regions of a classified map. These variations of accuracy will affect the reliability of subsequent analyses of different regions based on the classified maps. The traditional approach of map accuracy assessment based on an error matrix does not capture the spatial variation in classification accuracy. Here, per-pixel accuracy prediction methods are proposed based on interpolating accuracy values from a test sample to produce wall-to-wall accuracy maps. Different accuracy prediction methods were developed based on four factors: predictive domain (spatial versus spectral), interpolation function (constant, linear, Gaussian, and logistic), incorporation of class information (interpolating each class separately versus grouping them together), and sample size. Incorporation of spectral domain as explanatory feature spaces of classification accuracy interpolation was done for the first time in this research. Performance of the prediction methods was evaluated using 26 test blocks, with 10 km × 10 km dimensions, dispersed throughout the United States. The performance of the predictions was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic. Relative to existing accuracy prediction methods, our proposed methods resulted in improvements of AUC of 0.15 or greater. Evaluation of the four factors comprising the accuracy prediction methods demonstrated that: i) interpolations should be done separately for each class instead of grouping all classes together; ii) if an all-classes approach is used, the spectral domain will result in substantially greater AUC than the spatial domain; iii) for the smaller sample size and per-class predictions, the spectral and spatial domain yielded similar AUC; iv) for the larger sample size (i.e., very dense spatial sample) and per-class predictions, the spatial domain yielded larger AUC; v) increasing the sample size improved accuracy predictions with a greater benefit accruing to the spatial domain; and vi) the function used for interpolation had the smallest effect on AUC.

Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

2018-02-01

Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

The First Prediction of a Rift Valley Fever Outbreak

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anyamba, Assaf; Chretien, Jean-Paul; Small, Jennifer; Tucker, Compton J.; Formenty, Pierre; Richardson, Jason H.; Britch, Seth C.; Schnabel, David C.; Erickson, Ralph L.; Linthicum, Kenneth J.

2009-01-01

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related anomalies were analyzed using a combination of satellite measurements of elevated sea surface temperatures, and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite derived normalized difference vegetation index data. A Rift Valley fever risk mapping model using these climate data predicted areas where outbreaks of Rift Valley fever in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa from December 2006 to May 2007. The predictions were subsequently confirmed by entomological and epidemiological field investigations of virus activity in the areas identified as at risk. Accurate spatial and temporal predictions of disease activity, as it occurred first in southern Somalia and then through much of Kenya before affecting northern Tanzania, provided a 2 to 6 week period of warning for the Horn of Africa that facilitated disease outbreak response and mitigation activities. This is the first prospective prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak.

Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak

PubMed Central

Anyamba, Assaf; Chretien, Jean-Paul; Small, Jennifer; Tucker, Compton J.; Formenty, Pierre B.; Richardson, Jason H.; Britch, Seth C.; Schnabel, David C.; Erickson, Ralph L.; Linthicum, Kenneth J.

2009-01-01

El Niño/Southern Oscillation related climate anomalies were analyzed by using a combination of satellite measurements of elevated sea-surface temperatures and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data. A Rift Valley fever (RVF) risk mapping model using these climate data predicted areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa from December 2006 to May 2007. The predictions were subsequently confirmed by entomological and epidemiological field investigations of virus activity in the areas identified as at risk. Accurate spatial and temporal predictions of disease activity, as it occurred first in southern Somalia and then through much of Kenya before affecting northern Tanzania, provided a 2 to 6 week period of warning for the Horn of Africa that facilitated disease outbreak response and mitigation activities. To our knowledge, this is the first prospective prediction of a RVF outbreak. PMID:19144928

Standardized measures of lobular involution and subsequent breast cancer risk among women with benign breast disease: a nested case-control study.

PubMed

Figueroa, Jonine D; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Brinton, Louise A; Palakal, Maya M; Degnim, Amy C; Radisky, Derek; Hartmann, Lynn C; Frost, Marlene H; Stallings Mann, Melody L; Papathomas, Daphne; Gierach, Gretchen L; Hewitt, Stephen M; Duggan, Maire A; Visscher, Daniel; Sherman, Mark E

2016-08-01

Lesser degrees of terminal duct-lobular unit (TDLU) involution predict higher breast cancer risk; however, standardized measures to quantitate levels of TDLU involution have only recently been developed. We assessed whether three standardized measures of TDLU involution, with high intra/inter pathologist reproducibility in normal breast tissue, predict subsequent breast cancer risk among women in the Mayo benign breast disease (BBD) cohort. We performed a masked evaluation of biopsies from 99 women with BBD who subsequently developed breast cancer (cases) after a median of 16.9 years and 145 age-matched controls. We assessed three metrics inversely related to TDLU involution: TDLU count/mm(2), median TDLU span (microns, which approximates acini content), and median category of acini counts/TDLU (0-10; 11-20; 21-30; 31-50; >50). Associations with subsequent breast cancer risk for quartiles (or categories of acini counts) of each of these measures were assessed with multivariable conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI). In multivariable models, women in the highest quartile compared to the lowest quartiles of TDLU counts and TDLU span measures were significantly associated with subsequent breast cancer diagnoses; TDLU counts quartile4 versus quartile1, OR = 2.44, 95 %CI 0.96-6.19, p-trend = 0.02; and TDLU spans, quartile4 versus quartile1, OR = 2.83, 95 %CI = 1.13-7.06, p-trend = 0.03. Significant associations with categorical measures of acini counts/TDLU were also observed: compared to women with median category of <10 acini/TDLU, women with >25 acini counts/TDLU were at significantly higher risk, OR = 3.40, 95 %CI 1.03-11.17, p-trend = 0.032. Women with TDLU spans and TDLU count measures above the median were at further increased risk, OR = 3.75 (95 %CI 1.40-10.00, p-trend = 0.008), compared with women below the median for both of these metrics. Similar results were observed for combinatorial metrics of TDLU acini counts/TDLU, and TDLU count. Standardized quantitative measures of TDLU counts and acini counts approximated by TDLU span measures or visually assessed in categories are independently associated with breast cancer risk. Visual assessment of TDLU numbers and acini content, which are highly reproducible between pathologists, could help identify women at high risk for subsequent breast cancer among the million women diagnosed annually with BBD in the US.

Standardized measures of lobular involution and subsequent breast cancer risk among women with benign breast disease: a nested case–control study

PubMed Central

Figueroa, Jonine D.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Brinton, Louise A.; Palakal, Maya M.; Degnim, Amy C.; Radisky, Derek; Hartmann, Lynn C.; Frost, Marlene H.; Mann, Melody L. Stallings; Papathomas, Daphne; Gierach, Gretchen L.; Hewitt, Stephen M.; Duggan, Maire A.; Visscher, Daniel; Sherman, Mark E.

2016-01-01

Lesser degrees of terminal duct-lobular unit (TDLU) involution predict higher breast cancer risk; however, standardized measures to quantitate levels of TDLU involution have only recently been developed. We assessed whether three standardized measures of TDLU involution, with high intra/inter pathologist reproducibility in normal breast tissue, predict subsequent breast cancer risk among women in the Mayo benign breast disease (BBD) cohort. We performed a masked evaluation of biopsies from 99 women with BBD who subsequently developed breast cancer (cases) after a median of 16.9 years and 145 age-matched controls. We assessed three metrics inversely related to TDLU involution: TDLU count/mm2, median TDLU span (microns, which approximates acini content), and median category of acini counts/TDLU (0–10; 11–20; 21–30; 31–50; >50). Associations with subsequent breast cancer risk for quartiles (or categories of acini counts) of each of these measures were assessed with multivariable conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI). In multivariable models, women in the highest quartile compared to the lowest quartiles of TDLU counts and TDLU span measures were significantly associated with subsequent breast cancer diagnoses; TDLU counts quartile4 versus quartile1, OR = 2.44, 95 %CI 0.96–6.19, p-trend = 0.02; and TDLU spans, quartile4 versus quartile1, OR = 2.83, 95 %CI = 1.13–7.06, p-trend = 0.03. Significant associations with categorical measures of acini counts/TDLU were also observed: compared to women with median category of <10 acini/TDLU, women with >25 acini counts/TDLU were at significantly higher risk, OR = 3.40, 95 %CI 1.03–11.17, p-trend = 0.032. Women with TDLU spans and TDLU count measures above the median were at further increased risk, OR = 3.75 (95 %CI 1.40–10.00, p-trend = 0.008), compared with women below the median for both of these metrics. Similar results were observed for combinatorial metrics of TDLU acini counts/TDLU, and TDLU count. Standardized quantitative measures of TDLU counts and acini counts approximated by TDLU span measures or visually assessed in categories are independently associated with breast cancer risk. Visual assessment of TDLU numbers and acini content, which are highly reproducible between pathologists, could help identify women at high risk for subsequent breast cancer among the million women diagnosed annually with BBD in the US. PMID:27488681

Attributing heart attack and stroke to "Old Age": Implications for subsequent health outcomes among older adults.

PubMed

Stewart, Tara L; Chipperfield, Judith G; Perry, Raymond P; Hamm, Jeremy M

2016-01-01

This study assessed the extent to which older adults attribute a recent heart attack/stroke to "old age," and examined consequences for subsequent lifestyle behavior and health-care service utilization. Community-dwelling adults (N = 57, ages 73-98 years) were interviewed about their heart attack/stroke, and an objective health registry provided data on health-care utilization over a 3-year period. Endorsement of "old age" as a cause of heart attack/stroke negatively predicted lifestyle behavior change, and positively predicted frequency of physician visits and likelihood of hospitalization over the subsequent 3 years. Findings suggest the importance of considering "old age" attributions in the context of cardiovascular health events. © The Author(s) 2014.

Validating and updating a prediction rule for serious bacterial infection in patients with fever without source.

PubMed

Bleeker, S E; Derksen-Lubsen, G; Grobbee, D E; Donders, A R T; Moons, K G M; Moll, H A

2007-01-01

To externally validate and update a previously developed rule for predicting the presence of serious bacterial infections in children with fever without apparent source. Patients, 1-36 mo, presenting with fever without source, were prospectively enrolled. Serious bacterial infection included bacterial meningitis, sepsis, bacteraemia, pneumonia, urinary tract infection, bacterial gastroenteritis, osteomyelitis/ethmoiditis. The generalizability of the original rule was determined. Subsequently, the prediction rule was updated using all available data of the patients with fever without source (1996-1998 and 2000-2001, n = 381) using multivariable logistic regression. the generalizability of the rule appeared insufficient in the new patients (n = 150). In the updated rule, independent predictors from history and examination were duration of fever, vomiting, ill clinical appearance, chest-wall retractions and poor peripheral circulation (ROC area (95%CI): 0.69 (0.63-0.75)). Additional independent predictors from laboratory were serum white blood cell count and C-reactive protein, and in urinalysis > or = 70 white bloods (ROC area (95%CI): 0.83 (0.78-0.88). A previously developed prediction rule for predicting the presence of serious bacterial infection in children with fever without apparent source was updated. Its clinical score can be used as a first screening tool. Additional laboratory testing may specify the individual risk estimate (range: 4-54%) further.

Early prediction of cerebral palsy by computer-based video analysis of general movements: a feasibility study.

PubMed

Adde, Lars; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Jensenius, Alexander R; Taraldsen, Gunnar; Grunewaldt, Kristine H; Støen, Ragnhild

2010-08-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive value of a computer-based video analysis of the development of cerebral palsy (CP) in young infants. A prospective study of general movements used recordings from 30 high-risk infants (13 males, 17 females; mean gestational age 31wks, SD 6wks; range 23-42wks) between 10 and 15 weeks post term when fidgety movements should be present. Recordings were analysed using computer vision software. Movement variables, derived from differences between subsequent video frames, were used for quantitative analyses. CP status was reported at 5 years. Thirteen infants developed CP (eight hemiparetic, four quadriparetic, one dyskinetic; seven ambulatory, three non-ambulatory, and three unknown function), of whom one had fidgety movements. Variability of the centroid of motion had a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 71% in identifying CP. By combining this with variables reflecting the amount of motion, specificity increased to 88%. Nine out of 10 children with CP, and for whom information about functional level was available, were correctly predicted with regard to ambulatory and non-ambulatory function. Prediction of CP can be provided by computer-based video analysis in young infants. The method may serve as an objective and feasible tool for early prediction of CP in high-risk infants.

Adolescent mental health and subsequent parenting: a longitudinal birth cohort study

PubMed Central

Byford, M; Abbott, R A; Maughan, B; Richards, M; Kuh, D

2014-01-01

Background Adolescent mental health problems are associated with a range of adverse outcomes in adulthood but little is known about the effects on adult parenting practices. This study aimed to examine prospective associations between adolescent conduct and emotional problems and subsequent parenting behaviours in adulthood. Methods The study sample comprised 1110 members from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development. Prospective data were collected from teacher reports of conduct and emotional problems at age 13 and 15 years and adult outcome measures of parenting included intellectual environment, cognitive stimulation, coercive discipline, parental interest and parental aspiration. Results In regression models adjusted for the confounding effects of social background, cognition and education, adolescent conduct problems predicted coercive parenting behaviours in adulthood. The effects of adolescent emotional problems on the development of coercive discipline practices were explained by covariates. Likewise, the inability of parents who displayed conduct problems in adolescence to provide an intellectually stimulating home environment was fully explained by the adjustment for education. Conclusions Adolescents who exhibit conduct problems are more likely to develop coercive styles of parenting. PMID:24357583

Adolescent mental health and subsequent parenting: a longitudinal birth cohort study.

PubMed

Byford, M; Abbott, R A; Maughan, B; Kuh, D; Richards, M

2014-05-01

Adolescent mental health problems are associated with a range of adverse outcomes in adulthood but little is known about the effects on adult parenting practices. This study aimed to examine prospective associations between adolescent conduct and emotional problems and subsequent parenting behaviours in adulthood. The study sample comprised 1110 members from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development. Prospective data were collected from teacher reports of conduct and emotional problems at age 13 and 15 years and adult outcome measures of parenting included intellectual environment, cognitive stimulation, coercive discipline, parental interest and parental aspiration. In regression models adjusted for the confounding effects of social background, cognition and education, adolescent conduct problems predicted coercive parenting behaviours in adulthood. The effects of adolescent emotional problems on the development of coercive discipline practices were explained by covariates. Likewise, the inability of parents who displayed conduct problems in adolescence to provide an intellectually stimulating home environment was fully explained by the adjustment for education. Adolescents who exhibit conduct problems are more likely to develop coercive styles of parenting.

Potential uncertainty reduction in model-averaged benchmark dose estimates informed by an additional dose study.

PubMed

Shao, Kan; Small, Mitchell J

2011-10-01

A methodology is presented for assessing the information value of an additional dosage experiment in existing bioassay studies. The analysis demonstrates the potential reduction in the uncertainty of toxicity metrics derived from expanded studies, providing insights for future studies. Bayesian methods are used to fit alternative dose-response models using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation for parameter estimation and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is used to compare and combine the alternative models. BMA predictions for benchmark dose (BMD) are developed, with uncertainty in these predictions used to derive the lower bound BMDL. The MCMC and BMA results provide a basis for a subsequent Monte Carlo analysis that backcasts the dosage where an additional test group would have been most beneficial in reducing the uncertainty in the BMD prediction, along with the magnitude of the expected uncertainty reduction. Uncertainty reductions are measured in terms of reduced interval widths of predicted BMD values and increases in BMDL values that occur as a result of this reduced uncertainty. The methodology is illustrated using two existing data sets for TCDD carcinogenicity, fitted with two alternative dose-response models (logistic and quantal-linear). The example shows that an additional dose at a relatively high value would have been most effective for reducing the uncertainty in BMA BMD estimates, with predicted reductions in the widths of uncertainty intervals of approximately 30%, and expected increases in BMDL values of 5-10%. The results demonstrate that dose selection for studies that subsequently inform dose-response models can benefit from consideration of how these models will be fit, combined, and interpreted. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Imaging Surrogates of Infiltration Obtained Via Multiparametric Imaging Pattern Analysis Predict Subsequent Location of Recurrence of Glioblastoma

PubMed Central

Akbari, Hamed; Macyszyn, Luke; Da, Xiao; Bilello, Michel; Wolf, Ronald L.; Martinez-Lage, Maria; Biros, George; Alonso-Basanta, Michelle; O’Rourke, Donald M.; Davatzikos, Christos

2016-01-01

Background Glioblastoma is an aggressive and highly infiltrative brain cancer. Standard surgical resection is guided by enhancement on postcontrast T1-weighted (T1) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), which is insufficient for delineating surrounding infiltrating tumor. Objective To develop imaging biomarkers that delineate areas of tumor infiltration and predict early recurrence in peritumoral tissue. Such markers would enable intensive, yet targeted, surgery and radiotherapy, thereby potentially delaying recurrence and prolonging survival. Methods Preoperative multiparametric MRIs (T1, T1-Gad, T2-weighted [T2], T2-fluid-attenuated inversion recovery [FLAIR], diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), and dynamic susceptibility contrast-enhanced [DSC]-MRI) from 31 patients were combined using machine learning methods, thereby creating predictive spatial maps of infiltrated peritumoral tissue. Cross validation was used in the retrospective cohort to achieve generalizable biomarkers. Subsequently, the imaging signatures learned from the retrospective study were used in a replication cohort of 34 new patients. Spatial maps representing likelihood of tumor infiltration and future early recurrence were compared to regions of recurrence on postresection follow-up studies with pathology confirmation. Results This technique produced predictions of early recurrence with a mean area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84, sensitivity of 91%, specificity of 93%, and odds ratio estimates of 9.29 (99% CI, 8.95–9.65) for tissue predicted to be heavily infiltrated in the replication study. Regions of tumor recurrence were found to have subtle, yet fairly distinctive multiparametric imaging signatures when analyzed quantitatively by pattern analysis and machine learning. Conclusion Visually imperceptible imaging patterns discovered via multiparametric pattern analysis methods were found to estimate the extent of infiltration and location of future tumor recurrence, paving the way for improved targeted treatment. PMID:26813856

Elastic-plastic analysis of a propagating crack under cyclic loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, J. C., Jr.; Armen, H., Jr.

1974-01-01

Development and application of a two-dimensional finite-element analysis to predict crack-closure and crack-opening stresses during specified histories of cyclic loading. An existing finite-element computer program which accounts for elastic-plastic material behavior under cyclic loading was modified to account for changing boundary conditions - crack growth and intermittent contact of crack surfaces. This program was subsequently used to study the crack-closure behavior under constant-amplitude and simple block-program loading.

Father Involvement and Young, Rural African American Men's Engagement in Substance Misuse and Multiple Sexual Partnerships.

PubMed

Barton, Allen W; Kogan, Steven M; Cho, Junhan; Brown, Geoffrey L

2015-12-01

This study was designed to examine the associations of biological father and social father involvement during childhood with African American young men's development and engagement in risk behaviors. With a sample of 505 young men living in the rural South of the United States, a dual mediation model was tested in which retrospective reports of involvement from biological fathers and social fathers were linked to young men's substance misuse and multiple sexual partnerships through men's relational schemas and future expectations. Results from structural equation modeling indicated that levels of involvement from biological fathers and social fathers predicted young men's relational schemas; only biological fathers' involvement predicted future expectations. In turn, future expectations predicted levels of substance misuse, and negative relational schemas predicted multiple sexual partnerships. Biological fathers' involvement evinced significant indirect associations with young men's substance misuse and multiple sexual partnerships through both schemas and expectations; social fathers' involvement exhibited an indirect association with multiple sexual partnerships through relational schemas. Findings highlight the unique influences of biological fathers and social fathers on multiple domains of African American young men's psychosocial development that subsequently render young men more or less likely to engage in risk behaviors.

THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF SERUM URIC ACID FOR THE OCCURRENCE, SEVERITY AND OUTCOMES OF PRE-ECLAMPSIA AMONG PARTURIENTS AT NNEWI, NIGERIA.

PubMed

Osakwe, Chukwudi Richmond; Ikpeze, Okechukwu C; Ezebialu, Ifeanyi Uzoma; Osakwe, Joy Oluchi; Mbadugha, Norah Nwadiogo

2015-01-01

To determine the predictive value of serum uric acid for preeclampsia, its severity and pregnancy outcome. This is a cohort study that was performed on normal pregnant women attending antenatal clinic at Nnamdi Azikiwe University Teaching Hospital Nnewi Nigeria. Serum uric acid was determined in 200 women attending antenatal clinic between the gestational ages of 14 and 26 weeks. The women were followed up at 2 weekly intervals until 36 weeks and weekly thereafter until delivery. Women who developed pre-eclampsia or eclampsia were identified. Pregnancy outcomes were determined as well as fetal and placental weights. The data was analised with SPSS version 16.0. The chi square was used for test of significance. The positive and negative predictive values were determined. A total of 200 normal pregnant women were recruited for the study. Nine of them were lost to follow up. Subsequently, 10.5% of the women developed preeclampsia. The positive and negative predictive values of serum uric acid for preeclampsia were 78.9% and 97.1%, respectively. Serum uric acid was found to be a useful predictor of the occurrence of preeclampsia and its severity.

The Geographic Concentration of Enterprise in Developing Countries

PubMed Central

Felkner, John S.; Townsend, Robert M.

2011-01-01

A nation’s economic geography can have an enormous impact on its development. In Thailand, we show that a high concentration of enterprise in an area predicts high subsequent growth in and around that area. We also find spatially contiguous convergence of enterprise with stagnant areas left behind. Exogenous physiographic conditions are correlated with enterprise location and growth. We fit a structural, micro-founded model of occupation transitions with fine-tuned geographic capabilities to village data and replicate these salient facts. Key elements of the model include costs, credit constraints on occupation choice, and spatially varying expansion of financial service providers. PMID:22844158

Developmental trajectories of compensatory exercise and fasting behavior across the middle school years.

PubMed

Davis, Heather A; Guller, Leila; Smith, Gregory T

2016-12-01

Compensatory exercise and fasting behavior, in the absence of binge eating and purging, appear to be important eating disorder behaviors that are associated with dysfunction, but little is known about these behaviors in youth. We studied the trajectories of their development in non-binge eating and non-purging girls during early adolescence. Using a longitudinal design, we assessed 564 girls six times over the three years of middle school (grades 6 through 8) and developed trajectories specifying different developmental patterns in relation to the behaviors. Prior to this period, when the girls were in 5th grade (elementary school), we assessed risk factors to predict girls' subsequent trajectory group membership. Compensatory exercise trajectory groups included a non-engagement group, a group that increased in the behavior, and a group that decreased in the behavior. There were two fasting trajectory groups, one consistently engaging in the behavior and the other consistently not. Elementary school levels of depression, eating expectancies, and thinness expectancies predicted subsequent trajectory group membership. Risk for compensatory exercise and fasting should be evaluated as early as in 5th grade. Targeted interventions should focus on girls in late elementary school or middle school, as this appears to be a critical developmental and maintenance period for compensatory exercise and fasting behavior. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The negative and positive self: a longitudinal study examining self-esteem, paranoia and negative symptoms in individuals with first-episode psychosis.

PubMed

Palmier-Claus, Jasper; Dunn, Graham; Drake, Richard; Lewis, Shôn

2011-05-01

Self-esteem has been implicated in the development of psychotic phenomena, especially paranoia. Recent findings suggest that it may be useful to assess the instability of self-esteem instead of the mean score. We examined this construct as two separate factors: positive beliefs about the self (PBS) and negative beliefs about the self (NBS). Theoretical models have implicated NBS in the development of paranoia, whereas research studies have sometimes found an association between PBS and negative symptoms. The first aim of this study was to investigate associations between change in PBS and NBS, and subsequent change in paranoia and negative symptoms. The second aim was to examine whether fluctuations in PBS and NBS predicted mean paranoia levels. Data from a large sample of individuals with first-episode psychosis (n = 256) assessed at baseline, 6 weeks, 3 months and 18 months was analysed. The data suggest that changes in both PBS and NBS in the early stages of disorder are related to change in negative symptoms, but not paranoia. PBS variability and NBS mean scores significantly predicted average paranoia levels when taken from across all four time points, suggesting potential differences in the associations with psychosis of these two constructs. Self-esteem boosting interventions administered in the first 6 weeks after admission to healthcare services may improve the subsequent course of negative symptoms.

Using Single-trial EEG to Predict and Analyze Subsequent Memory

PubMed Central

Noh, Eunho; Herzmann, Grit; Curran, Tim; de Sa, Virginia R.

2013-01-01

We show that it is possible to successfully predict subsequent memory performance based on single-trial EEG activity before and during item presentation in the study phase. Two-class classification was conducted to predict subsequently remembered vs. forgotten trials based on subjects’ responses in the recognition phase. The overall accuracy across 18 subjects was 59.6 % by combining pre- and during-stimulus information. The single-trial classification analysis provides a dimensionality reduction method to project the high-dimensional EEG data onto a discriminative space. These projections revealed novel findings in the pre- and during-stimulus period related to levels of encoding. It was observed that the pre-stimulus information (specifically oscillatory activity between 25–35Hz) −300 to 0 ms before stimulus presentation and during-stimulus alpha (7–12 Hz) information between 1000–1400 ms after stimulus onset distinguished between recollection and familiarity while the during-stimulus alpha information and temporal information between 400–800 ms after stimulus onset mapped these two states to similar values. PMID:24064073

Pretraining Cortical Thickness Predicts Subsequent Perceptual Learning Rate in a Visual Search Task.

PubMed

Frank, Sebastian M; Reavis, Eric A; Greenlee, Mark W; Tse, Peter U

2016-03-01

We report that preexisting individual differences in the cortical thickness of brain areas involved in a perceptual learning task predict the subsequent perceptual learning rate. Participants trained in a motion-discrimination task involving visual search for a "V"-shaped target motion trajectory among inverted "V"-shaped distractor trajectories. Motion-sensitive area MT+ (V5) was functionally identified as critical to the task: after 3 weeks of training, activity increased in MT+ during task performance, as measured by functional magnetic resonance imaging. We computed the cortical thickness of MT+ from anatomical magnetic resonance imaging volumes collected before training started, and found that it significantly predicted subsequent perceptual learning rates in the visual search task. Participants with thicker neocortex in MT+ before training learned faster than those with thinner neocortex in that area. A similar association between cortical thickness and training success was also found in posterior parietal cortex (PPC). © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Evaluation of Carbon Composite Overwrap Pressure Vessels Fabricated Using Ionic Liquid Epoxies Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grugel, Richard

2015-01-01

The intent of the work proposed here is to ascertain the viability of ionic liquid (IL) epoxy based carbon fiber composites for use as storage tanks at cryogenic temperatures. This IL epoxy has been specifically developed to address composite cryogenic tank challenges associated with achieving NASA's in-space propulsion and exploration goals. Our initial work showed that an unadulterated ionic liquid (IL) carbon-fiber composite exhibited improved properties over an optimized commercial product at cryogenic temperatures. Subsequent investigative work has significantly improved the IL epoxy and our first carbon-fiber Composite Overwrap Pressure Vessel (COPV) was successfully fabricated. Here additional COPVs, using a further improved IL epoxy, will be fabricated and pressure tested at cryogenic temperatures with the results rigorously analyzed. Investigation of the IL composite for lower pressure liner-less cryogenic tank applications will also be initiated. It is expected that the current Technology Readiness Level (TRL) will be raised from about TRL 3 to TRL 5 where unambiguous predictions for subsequent development/testing can be made.

Constructing realistic engrams: poststimulus activity of hippocampus and dorsal striatum predicts subsequent episodic memory.

PubMed

Ben-Yakov, Aya; Dudai, Yadin

2011-06-15

Encoding of real-life episodic memory commonly involves integration of information as the episode unfolds. Offline processing immediately following event offset is expected to play a role in encoding the episode into memory. In this study, we examined whether distinct human brain activity time-locked to the offset of short narrative audiovisual episodes could predict subsequent memory for the gist of the episodes. We found that a set of brain regions, most prominently the bilateral hippocampus and the bilateral caudate nucleus, exhibit memory-predictive activity time-locked to the stimulus offset. We propose that offline activity in these regions reflects registration to memory of integrated episodes.

Hopelessness, individualism, collectivism, and substance use among young rural-to-urban migrants in China

PubMed Central

Du, Hongfei; Li, Xiaoming; Lin, Danhua; Tam, Cheuk Chi

2014-01-01

The current study aimed to investigate the impact of individualism, collectivism, and hopelessness on substance use. Hopelessness was hypothesized as a mediator between individualism and substance use, and between collectivism and substance use. We tested the hypothesis using a survey of 641 young rural-to-urban migrants in China. Consistent with our hypotheses, individualistic orientation predicted increased hopelessness and subsequently predicted more substance use, whereas collectivistic orientation was associated with decreased hopelessness and subsequently predicted less substance use. Hopelessness fully mediated the relations between individualism and substance use and between collectivism and substance use. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings were discussed. PMID:25750778

Diurnal Salivary Cortisol Patterns Prior to Pregnancy Predict Infant Birth Weight

PubMed Central

Guardino, Christine M.; Schetter, Christine Dunkel; Saxbe, Darby E.; Adam, Emma K.; Ramey, Sharon Landesman; Shalowitz, Madeleine U.

2016-01-01

Objective Elevated maternal psychosocial stress during pregnancy and accompanying changes in stress hormones may contribute to risk of adverse birth outcomes such as low birth weight and preterm birth. Relatedly, research on fetal programming demonstrates intriguing associations between maternal stress processes during pregnancy and outcomes in offspring that extend into adulthood. The purpose of this study was to test whether HPA patterns in mothers during the period between two pregnancies (i.e., the interpregnancy interval) and the subsequent pregnancy predict infant birth weight, a key birth outcome. Methods This study sampled salivary cortisol both before and during pregnancy in a diverse community sample of 142 women in the Community Child Health Network (CCHN) study. Results Using multilevel modeling, we found that flatter diurnal cortisol slopes in mothers during the interval between one birth and a subsequent pregnancy predicted lower infant birth weight of the subsequent child. This interpregnancy cortisol pattern in mothers also correlated with significantly shorter inter-pregnancy intervals, such that women with flatter cortisol slopes had more closely spaced pregnancies. After adding demographic covariates of household income, cohabitation with partner, and race to the model, these results were unchanged. For participants who provided both interpregnancy and pregnancy cortisol data (n = 73), we found that interpregnancy cortisol slopes predicted infant birth weight independent of pregnancy cortisol slopes. Conclusions These novel findings on interpregnancy HPA axis function and subsequent pregnancy outcomes strongly support lifespan health approaches and underscore the importance of maternal stress physiology between pregnancies. PMID:26844584

Developing predictive models for toxicity of organic chemicals to green algae based on mode of action.

PubMed

Bakire, Serge; Yang, Xinya; Ma, Guangcai; Wei, Xiaoxuan; Yu, Haiying; Chen, Jianrong; Lin, Hongjun

2018-01-01

Organic chemicals in the aquatic ecosystem may inhibit algae growth and subsequently lead to the decline of primary productivity. Growth inhibition tests are required for ecotoxicological assessments for regulatory purposes. In silico study is playing an important role in replacing or reducing animal tests and decreasing experimental expense due to its efficiency. In this work, a series of theoretical models was developed for predicting algal growth inhibition (log EC 50 ) after 72 h exposure to diverse chemicals. In total 348 organic compounds were classified into five modes of toxic action using the Verhaar Scheme. Each model was established by using molecular descriptors that characterize electronic and structural properties. The external validation and leave-one-out cross validation proved the statistical robustness of the derived models. Thus they can be used to predict log EC 50 values of chemicals that lack authorized algal growth inhibition values (72 h). This work systematically studied algal growth inhibition according to toxic modes and the developed model suite covers all five toxic modes. The outcome of this research will promote toxic mechanism analysis and be made applicable to structural diversity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comorbidity of Anxiety and Depression in Children and Adolescents: 20 Years After

PubMed Central

Cummings, Colleen M.; Caporino, Nicole E.; Kendall, Philip C.

2014-01-01

Brady and Kendall (1992) concluded that although anxiety and depression in youth are meaningfully linked, there are important distinctions, and additional research was needed. Since then, studies of anxiety-depression comorbidity in youth have increased exponentially. Following a discussion of comorbidity, we review existing conceptual models and propose a multiple pathways model to anxiety-depression comorbidity. Pathway 1 describes youth with a diathesis for anxiety, with subsequent comorbid depression resulting from anxiety-related impairment. Pathway 2 refers to youth with a shared diathesis for anxiety and depression, who may experience both disorders simultaneously. Pathway 3 describes youth with a diathesis for depression, with subsequent comorbid anxiety resulting from depression-related impairment. Additionally, shared and stratified risk factors contribute to the development of the comorbid disorder, either by interacting with disorder-related impairment or by predicting the simultaneous development of the disorders. Our review addresses descriptive and developmental factors, gender differences, suicidality, assessments, and treatment-outcome research as they relate to comorbid anxiety and depression, and to our proposed pathways. Research since 1992 indicates that comorbidity varies depending on the specific anxiety disorder, with Pathway 1 describing youth with either social phobia or separation anxiety disorder and subsequent depression, Pathway 2 applying to youth with co-primary generalized anxiety disorder and depression, and Pathway 3 including depressed youth with subsequent social phobia. The need to test the proposed multiple pathways model and to examine (a) developmental change and (b) specific anxiety disorders is highlighted. PMID:24219155

Comorbidity of anxiety and depression in children and adolescents: 20 years after.

PubMed

Cummings, Colleen M; Caporino, Nicole E; Kendall, Philip C

2014-05-01

Brady and Kendall (1992) concluded that although anxiety and depression in youths are meaningfully linked, there are important distinctions, and additional research is needed. Since then, studies of anxiety-depression comorbidity in youths have increased exponentially. Following a discussion of comorbidity, we review existing conceptual models and propose a multiple pathways model to anxiety-depression comorbidity. Pathway 1 describes youths with a diathesis for anxiety, with subsequent comorbid depression resulting from anxiety-related impairment. Pathway 2 refers to youths with a shared diathesis for anxiety and depression, who may experience both disorders simultaneously. Pathway 3 describes youths with a diathesis for depression, with subsequent comorbid anxiety resulting from depression-related impairment. Additionally, shared and stratified risk factors contribute to the development of the comorbid disorder, either by interacting with disorder-related impairment or by predicting the simultaneous development of the disorders. Our review addresses descriptive and developmental factors, gender differences, suicidality, assessments, and treatment-outcome research as they relate to comorbid anxiety and depression and to our proposed pathways. Research since 1992 indicates that comorbidity varies depending on the specific anxiety disorder, with Pathway 1 describing youths with either social phobia or separation anxiety disorder and subsequent depression, Pathway 2 applying to youths with coprimary generalized anxiety disorder and depression, and Pathway 3 including depressed youths with subsequent social phobia. The need to test the proposed multiple pathways model and to examine (a) developmental change and (b) specific anxiety disorders is highlighted.

First trimester screening of circulating C19MC microRNAs and the evaluation of their potential to predict the onset of preeclampsia and IUGR.

PubMed

Hromadnikova, Ilona; Kotlabova, Katerina; Ivankova, Katarina; Krofta, Ladislav

2017-01-01

A nested case control study of a longitudinal cohort comparing pregnant women enrolled at 10 to 13 gestational weeks was carried out to evaluate risk assessment for preeclampsia and IUGR based on circulating placental specific C19MC microRNAs in early pregnancy. The expression of placental specific C19MC microRNAs (miR-516b-5p, miR-517-5p, miR-518b, miR-520a-5p, miR-520h, and miR-525-5p) was determined in plasma samples from pregnancies that subsequently developed preeclampsia (n = 21), IUGR (n = 18), and 58 normal pregnancies using real-time PCR and comparative Ct method relative to synthetic Caenorhabditis elegans microRNA (cel-miR-39). Circulating C19MC microRNAs were up-regulated (miR-517-5p, p = 0.005; miR-518b, p = 0.013; miR-520h, p = 0.021) or showed a trend toward up-regulation in patients destined to develop preeclampsia (miR-520a-5p, p = 0.067; miR-525-5p, p = 0.073). MiR-517-5p had the best predictive performance for preeclampsia with a sensitivity of 42.9%, a specificity of 86.2%, a PPV of 52.9% and a NPV of 80.6%. The combination of all examined circulating C19MC microRNAs had no advantage over using only the miR-517-5p biomarker to predict the occurrence of preeclampsia (a sensitivity of 20.6%, a specificity of 90.8%, a PPV of 44.8%, and a NPV of 76.0%). Up-regulation of miR-517-5p, miR-518b and miR-520h was associated with a risk of later development of preeclampsia. First trimester screening of extracellular miR-517-5p identified a proportion of women with subsequent preeclampsia. No circulating C19MC microRNA biomarkers were identified that could predict later occurrence of IUGR.

Prevention of myopia by partial correction of hyperopia: a twins study.

PubMed

Medina, Antonio

2018-04-01

To confirm the prediction of emmetropization feedback theory that myopia can be prevented by correcting the hyperopia of a child at risk of becoming myopic. We conducted such myopia prevention treatment with twins at risk. Their hyperopia was partially corrected by one half at age 7 and in subsequent years until age 16. Hyperopia progressively decreased in all eyes as expected. None of the twins developed myopia. The spherical equivalent refractions of the followed eyes were +1 and +1.25 D at age 16. Feedback theory accurately predicted these values. The treatment of the twins with partial correction of their hyperopia was successful. Prevention of myopia with this technique is relatively simple and powerful. The use of this myopia prevention treatment has no adverse effects. This prevention treatment is indicated in children with a hyperopic reserve at risk of developing myopia.

Explosion/Blast Dynamics for Constellation Launch Vehicles Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baer, Mel; Crawford, Dave; Hickox, Charles; Kipp, Marlin; Hertel, Gene; Morgan, Hal; Ratzel, Arthur; Cragg, Clinton H.

2009-01-01

An assessment methodology is developed to guide quantitative predictions of adverse physical environments and the subsequent effects on the Ares-1 crew launch vehicle associated with the loss of containment of cryogenic liquid propellants from the upper stage during ascent. Development of the methodology is led by a team at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) with guidance and support from a number of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) personnel. The methodology is based on the current Ares-1 design and feasible accident scenarios. These scenarios address containment failure from debris impact or structural response to pressure or blast loading from an external source. Once containment is breached, the envisioned assessment methodology includes predictions for the sequence of physical processes stemming from cryogenic tank failure. The investigative techniques, analysis paths, and numerical simulations that comprise the proposed methodology are summarized and appropriate simulation software is identified in this report.

Investigation of charge weight and shock factor effect on non-linear transient structural response of rectangular plates subjected to underwater explosion (UNDEX) shock loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, Ozgur; Sahin, Abdurrahman; Yilmaz, Tamer

2012-09-01

Underwater explosion induced shock loads are capable of causing considerable structural damage. Investigations of the underwater explosion (UNDEX) effects on structures have seen continuous developments because of security risks. Most of the earlier experimental investigations were performed by military since the World War I. Subsequently; Cole [1] established mathematical relations for modeling underwater explosion shock loading, which were the outcome of many experimental investigations This study predicts and establishes the transient responses of a panel structure to underwater explosion shock loads using non-linear finite element code Ls-Dyna. Accordingly, in this study a new MATLAB code has been developed for predicting shock loading profile for different weight of explosive and different shock factors. Numerical analysis was performed for various test conditions and results are compared with Ramajeyathilagam's experimental study [8].

Pre-trauma individual differences in extinction learning predict posttraumatic stress.

PubMed

Lommen, Miriam J J; Engelhard, Iris M; Sijbrandij, Marit; van den Hout, Marcel A; Hermans, Dirk

2013-02-01

In the aftermath of a traumatic event, many people suffer from psychological distress, but only a minority develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Pre-trauma individual differences in fear conditioning, most notably reduced extinction learning, have been proposed as playing an important role in the etiology of PTSD. However, prospective data are lacking. In this study, we prospectively tested whether reduced extinction was a predictor for later posttraumatic stress. Dutch soldiers (N = 249) were administered a conditioning task before their four-month deployment to Afghanistan to asses individual differences in extinction learning. After returning home, posttraumatic stress was measured. Results showed that reduced extinction learning before deployment predicted subsequent PTSD symptom severity, over and beyond degree of pre-deployment stress symptoms, neuroticism, and exposure to stressors on deployment. The findings suggest that reduced extinction learning may play a role in the development of PTSD. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intrinsic Motivation and Achievement in Mathematics in Elementary School: A Longitudinal Investigation of Their Association.

PubMed

Garon-Carrier, Gabrielle; Boivin, Michel; Guay, Frédéric; Kovas, Yulia; Dionne, Ginette; Lemelin, Jean-Pascal; Séguin, Jean R; Vitaro, Frank; Tremblay, Richard E

2016-01-01

This study examined the associations between intrinsic motivation and achievement in mathematics in a sample of 1,478 Canadian school-age children followed from Grades 1 to 4 (ages 7-10). Children self-reported their intrinsic motivation toward mathematics, whereas achievement was measured through direct assessment of mathematics abilities. Cross-lagged models showed that achievement predicted intrinsic motivation from Grades 1 to 2, and from Grades 2 to 4. However, intrinsic motivation did not predict achievement at any time. This developmental pattern of association was gender invariant. Contrary to the hypothesis that motivation and achievement are reciprocally associated over time, our results point to a directional association from prior achievement to subsequent intrinsic motivation. Results are discussed in light of their theoretical and practical implications. © 2015 The Authors. Child Development © 2015 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Optimizing Chemotherapy Dose and Schedule by Norton-Simon Mathematical Modeling

PubMed Central

Traina, Tiffany A.; Dugan, Ute; Higgins, Brian; Kolinsky, Kenneth; Theodoulou, Maria; Hudis, Clifford A.; Norton, Larry

2011-01-01

Background To hasten and improve anticancer drug development, we created a novel approach to generating and analyzing preclinical dose-scheduling data so as to optimize benefit-to-toxicity ratios. Methods We applied mathematical methods based upon Norton-Simon growth kinetic modeling to tumor-volume data from breast cancer xenografts treated with capecitabine (Xeloda®, Roche) at the conventional schedule of 14 days of treatment followed by a 7-day rest (14 - 7). Results The model predicted that 7 days of treatment followed by a 7-day rest (7 - 7) would be superior. Subsequent preclinical studies demonstrated that this biweekly capecitabine schedule allowed for safe delivery of higher daily doses, improved tumor response, and prolonged animal survival. Conclusions We demonstrated that the application of Norton-Simon modeling to the design and analysis of preclinical data predicts an improved capecitabine dosing schedule in xenograft models. This method warrants further investigation and application in clinical drug development. PMID:20519801

Quantitative assessment of post-concussion syndrome following mild traumatic brain injury using robotic technology.

PubMed

Subbian, Vignesh; Meunier, Jason M; Korfhagen, Joseph J; Ratcliff, Jonathan J; Shaw, George J; Beyette, Fred R

2014-01-01

Post-Concussion Syndrome (PCS) is a common sequelae of mild Traumatic Brain Injury (mTBI). Currently, there is no reliable test to determine which patients will develop PCS following an mTBI. As a result, clinicians are challenged to identify patients at high risk for subsequent PCS. Hence, there is a need to develop an objective test that can guide clinical risk stratification and predict the likelihood of PCS at the initial point of care in an Emergency Department (ED). This paper presents the results of robotic-assisted neurologic testing completed on mTBI patients in the ED and its ability to predict PCS at 3 weeks post-injury. Preliminary results show that abnormal proprioception, as measured using robotic testing is associated with higher risk of developing PCS following mTBI. In this pilot study, proprioceptive measures obtained through robotic testing had a 77% specificity (95CI: 46%-94%) and a 64% sensitivity (95CI: 41%-82%).

Application of elastic and elastic-plastic fracture mechanics methods to surface flaws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCabe, Donald E.; Ernst, Hugo A.; Newman, James C., Jr.

Fuel tanks that are a part of the External Tank assembly for the Space Shuttle are made of relatively thin 2219-T87 aluminum plate. These tanks contain about 917 m of fusion weld seam, all of which is nondestructively inspected for flaws and all those found are repaired. The tanks are subsequently proof-tested to a pressure that is sufficiently severe to cause weld metal yielding in a few local regions of the weld seam. The work undertaken in the present project was to develop a capability to predict flaw growth from undetected surface flaws that are assumed to be located in the highly stressed regions. The technical challenge was to develop R-curve prediction capability for surface cracks in specimens that contain the flaws of unusual sizes and shapes deemed to be of interest. The test techniques developed and the elastic-plastic analysis concepts adopted are presented. The flaws of interest were quite small surface cracks that were narrow-deep ellipses that served to exacerbate the technical difficulties involved.

Application of elastic and elastic-plastic fracture mechanics methods to surface flaws

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccabe, Donald E.; Ernst, Hugo A.; Newman, James C., Jr.

1992-01-01

Fuel tanks that are a part of the External Tank assembly for the Space Shuttle are made of relatively thin 2219-T87 aluminum plate. These tanks contain about 917 m of fusion weld seam, all of which is nondestructively inspected for flaws and all those found are repaired. The tanks are subsequently proof-tested to a pressure that is sufficiently severe to cause weld metal yielding in a few local regions of the weld seam. The work undertaken in the present project was to develop a capability to predict flaw growth from undetected surface flaws that are assumed to be located in the highly stressed regions. The technical challenge was to develop R-curve prediction capability for surface cracks in specimens that contain the flaws of unusual sizes and shapes deemed to be of interest. The test techniques developed and the elastic-plastic analysis concepts adopted are presented. The flaws of interest were quite small surface cracks that were narrow-deep ellipses that served to exacerbate the technical difficulties involved.

Predicting plant biomass accumulation from image-derived parameters

PubMed Central

Chen, Dijun; Shi, Rongli; Pape, Jean-Michel; Neumann, Kerstin; Graner, Andreas; Chen, Ming; Klukas, Christian

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Image-based high-throughput phenotyping technologies have been rapidly developed in plant science recently, and they provide a great potential to gain more valuable information than traditionally destructive methods. Predicting plant biomass is regarded as a key purpose for plant breeders and ecologists. However, it is a great challenge to find a predictive biomass model across experiments. Results In the present study, we constructed 4 predictive models to examine the quantitative relationship between image-based features and plant biomass accumulation. Our methodology has been applied to 3 consecutive barley (Hordeum vulgare) experiments with control and stress treatments. The results proved that plant biomass can be accurately predicted from image-based parameters using a random forest model. The high prediction accuracy based on this model will contribute to relieving the phenotyping bottleneck in biomass measurement in breeding applications. The prediction performance is still relatively high across experiments under similar conditions. The relative contribution of individual features for predicting biomass was further quantified, revealing new insights into the phenotypic determinants of the plant biomass outcome. Furthermore, methods could also be used to determine the most important image-based features related to plant biomass accumulation, which would be promising for subsequent genetic mapping to uncover the genetic basis of biomass. Conclusions We have developed quantitative models to accurately predict plant biomass accumulation from image data. We anticipate that the analysis results will be useful to advance our views of the phenotypic determinants of plant biomass outcome, and the statistical methods can be broadly used for other plant species. PMID:29346559

[Serum PTH levels as a predictive factor of hypocalcaemia after total thyroidectomy].

PubMed

Díez Alonso, Manuel; Sánchez López, José Daniel; Sánchez-Seco Peña, María Isabel; Ratia Jiménez, Tomás; Arribas Gómez, Ignacio; Rodríguez Pascual, Angel; Martín-Duce, Antonio; Guadalix Hidalgo, Gregorio; Hernández Domínguez, Sara; Granell Vicent, Javier

2009-02-01

Postoperative parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels as a predictor of hypocalcaemia in patients subjected to total thyroidectomy is analyzed. Prospective study involving 67 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy due to a benign disease. Serum PTH and ionised calcium were measured 20 h after surgery. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of PTH and ionised calcium levels were calculated to predict clinical and analytical hypocalcaemia. A total of 42 (62.7%) patients developed hypocalcaemia (ionised calcium<0.95 mmol/l), but only 20 (29.9%) presented with symptoms. PTH concentration the day after surgery was significantly lower in the group that developed symptomatic hypocalcaemia (5.57+/-6.4 pg/ml) than in the asymptomatic (21.5+/-15.3 pg/ml) or normocalcaemic (26.8+/-24.9 pg/ml) groups (p=0.001). Taking the value of 13 pg/ml as a cut-off point of PTH levels, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 54%, 72%, 76% and 48%, respectively. On the other hand, sensitivity for predicting symptomatic hypocalcaemia was 95% and specificity was 76%. The test showed a high incidence of false positives (11/30, 36%). Negative predictive value was 97% and positive predictive value was 65%. In multivariate analysis, PTH and ionised calcium were the only perioperative factors that showed an independent predictive value as risk indicators of symptomatic hypocalcaemia. Normal PTH levels 20 h after surgery practically rule out the subsequent appearance of hypocalcaemia symptoms. On the other hand, low PTH levels are not necessarily associated to symptomatic hypocalcaemia due to the high number of false positives.

The reciprocal relationships between changes in adolescent perceived prevalence of smoking in movies and progression of smoking status

PubMed Central

Forster, Jean; Erickson, Darin; Lazovich, DeAnn; Southwell, Brian G.

2014-01-01

Background Smoking in movies is associated with adolescent smoking worldwide. To date, studies of the association mostly are restricted to the exposure to smoking images viewed by 9–15 year-olds. The association among older adolescents is rarely examined. In addition, the reciprocal effect of smoking behavior on subsequent reported exposure to smoking in movies has not been reported. Methods Data were from the Minnesota Adolescent Community Cohort Study collected every six months from 2000–2007 when participants were between the ages of 12 and 18 (n=4745). We estimated the prospective effect of the perceived prevalence of smoking in movies (four levels, from never to most of the time) on smoking stage measured six months later (six stages, from never smoker to established smoker), and the reciprocal prospective association between the two factors. Estimates were adjusted for demographic factors. Results The perceived prevalence of smoking in movies measured between ages 13½–15½ consistently predicted subsequent smoking stage. The association was inconsistent after the age of 15½. Smoking stage did not consistently predict subsequent perception of the prevalence of smoking in movies. Conclusions Perceived exposure to movie smoking primarily influenced teenagers’ smoking behavior at younger ages. If future studies confirm this finding, developing and evaluating interventions to improve young teenagers resistance to these images may complement policies to reduce smoking in movies to reduce prevalence of adolescent smoking. PMID:21828229

The reciprocal relationships between changes in adolescent perceived prevalence of smoking in movies and progression of smoking status.

PubMed

Choi, Kelvin; Forster, Jean; Erickson, Darin; Lazovich, Deann; Southwell, Brian G

2012-09-01

Smoking in movies is associated with adolescent smoking worldwide. To date, studies of the association mostly are restricted to the exposure to smoking images viewed by 9-15-year-olds. The association among older adolescents is rarely examined. In addition, the reciprocal effect of smoking behaviour on subsequent reported exposure to smoking in movies has not been reported. Data were from the Minnesota Adolescent Community Cohort Study collected every 6 months from 2000 to 2007 when participants were between the ages of 12 and 18 (n=4745). We estimated the prospective effect of the perceived prevalence of smoking in movies (four levels, from never to most of the time) on smoking stage (SS) measured 6 months later (six stages, from never-smoker to established smoker) and the reciprocal prospective association between the two factors. Estimates were adjusted for demographic factors. The perceived prevalence of smoking in movies measured between ages 13½ and 15½ consistently predicted subsequent SS. The association was inconsistent after the age of 15½. SS did not consistently predict subsequent perception of the prevalence of smoking in movies. Perceived exposure to movie smoking primarily influenced teenagers' smoking behaviour at younger ages. If future studies confirm this finding, developing and evaluating interventions to improve young teenagers' resistance to these images may complement policies to reduce smoking in movies to reduce prevalence of adolescent smoking.

How physiological and physical processes contribute to the phenology of cyanobacterial blooms in large shallow lakes: A new Euler-Lagrangian coupled model.

PubMed

Feng, Tao; Wang, Chao; Wang, Peifang; Qian, Jin; Wang, Xun

2018-09-01

Cyanobacterial blooms have emerged as one of the most severe ecological problems affecting large and shallow freshwater lakes. To improve our understanding of the factors that influence, and could be used to predict, surface blooms, this study developed a novel Euler-Lagrangian coupled approach combining the Eulerian model with agent-based modelling (ABM). The approach was subsequently verified based on monitoring datasets and MODIS data in a large shallow lake (Lake Taihu, China). The Eulerian model solves the Eulerian variables and physiological parameters, whereas ABM generates the complete life cycle and transport processes of cyanobacterial colonies. This model ensemble performed well in fitting historical data and predicting the dynamics of cyanobacterial biomass, bloom distribution, and area. Based on the calculated physical and physiological characteristics of surface blooms, principal component analysis (PCA) captured the major processes influencing surface bloom formation at different stages (two bloom clusters). Early bloom outbreaks were influenced by physical processes (horizontal transport and vertical turbulence-induced mixing), whereas buoyancy-controlling strategies were essential for mature bloom outbreaks. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) revealed the combined actions of multiple environment variables on different bloom clusters. The effects of buoyancy-controlling strategies (ISP), vertical turbulence-induced mixing velocity of colony (VMT) and horizontal drift velocity of colony (HDT) were quantitatively compared using scenario simulations in the coupled model. VMT accounted for 52.9% of bloom formations and maintained blooms over long periods, thus demonstrating the importance of wind-induced turbulence in shallow lakes. In comparison, HDT and buoyancy controlling strategies influenced blooms at different stages. In conclusion, the approach developed here presents a promising tool for understanding the processes of onshore/offshore algal blooms formation and subsequent predicting. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Corn rootworms (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in space and time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Yong-Lak

Spatial dispersion is a main characteristic of insect populations. Dispersion pattern provides useful information for developing effective sampling and scouting programs because it affects sampling accuracy, efficiency, and precision. Insect dispersion, however, is dynamic in space and time and largely dependent upon interactions among insect, plant and environmental factors. This study investigated the spatial and temporal dynamics of corn rootworm dispersion at different spatial scales by using the global positioning system, the geographic information system, and geostatistics. Egg dispersion pattern was random or uniform in 8-ha cornfields, but could be aggregated at a smaller scale. Larval dispersion pattern was aggregated regardless of spatial scales used in this study. Soil moisture positively affected corn rootworm egg and larval dispersions. Adult dispersion tended to be aggregated during peak population period and random or uniform early and late in the season and corn plant phenology was a major factor to determine dispersion patterns. The dispersion pattern of root injury by corn rootworm larval feeding was aggregated and the degree of aggregation increased as the root injury increased within the range of root injury observed in microscale study. Between-year relationships in dispersion among eggs, larvae, adult, and environment provided a strategy that could predict potential root damage the subsequent year. The best prediction map for the subsequent year's potential root damage was the dispersion maps of adults during population peaked in the cornfield. The prediction map was used to develop site-specific pest management that can reduce chemical input and increase control efficiency by controlling pests only where management is needed. This study demonstrated the spatio-temporal dynamics of insect population and spatial interactions among insects, plants, and environment.

Postoperative Elevation of the Neutrophil: Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts Complications Following Esophageal Resection.

PubMed

Vulliamy, Paul; McCluney, Simon; Mukherjee, Samrat; Ashby, Luke; Amalesh, Thangadorai

2016-06-01

Complications following esophagectomy are a significant source of morbidity. The aim of this study was to investigate the utility of the neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in the early identification of complications following esophagectomy, as compared to other routinely available parameters. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing Ivor-Lewis esophagectomy at a single centre. Baseline characteristics and complications occurring within the first 30 days of surgery were recorded. White blood cell counts and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels immediately following surgery (day 0) and over the subsequent three postoperative days were analysed. Sixty-five patients were included, of whom 29 (45 %) developed complications. The median NLR was similar among patients with and without a complicated recovery on day 0 (12.7 vs 13.6, p = 0.70) and day 1 (10.0 vs 9.3, p = 0.29). Patients who subsequently developed complications had a higher NLR on day 2 (11.8 vs 7.5, p < 0.001) and day 3 (9.0 vs 6.5, p = 0.001) compared to those whose recovery was uncomplicated. Receiver-operating-characteristic plots for the diagnostic performance of the NLR, neutrophil count, lymphocyte count and CRP level at each time point demonstrated that the NLR on day 2 had the greatest discriminatory ability in predicting complications, with an area under the curve of 0.83 (95 % CI 0.73-0.94). An NLR of >8.3 on day 2 had a sensitivity of 93 % and a specificity of 72 % for predicting complications. The NLR is a simple and routinely available parameter which has a high sensitivity in the early detection of complications following esophagectomy.

Assessment of two mammographic density related features in predicting near-term breast cancer risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Bin; Sumkin, Jules H.; Zuley, Margarita L.; Wang, Xingwei; Klym, Amy H.; Gur, David

2012-02-01

In order to establish a personalized breast cancer screening program, it is important to develop risk models that have high discriminatory power in predicting the likelihood of a woman developing an imaging detectable breast cancer in near-term (e.g., <3 years after a negative examination in question). In epidemiology-based breast cancer risk models, mammographic density is considered the second highest breast cancer risk factor (second to woman's age). In this study we explored a new feature, namely bilateral mammographic density asymmetry, and investigated the feasibility of predicting near-term screening outcome. The database consisted of 343 negative examinations, of which 187 depicted cancers that were detected during the subsequent screening examination and 155 that remained negative. We computed the average pixel value of the segmented breast areas depicted on each cranio-caudal view of the initial negative examinations. We then computed the mean and difference mammographic density for paired bilateral images. Using woman's age, subjectively rated density (BIRADS), and computed mammographic density related features we compared classification performance in estimating the likelihood of detecting cancer during the subsequent examination using areas under the ROC curves (AUC). The AUCs were 0.63+/-0.03, 0.54+/-0.04, 0.57+/-0.03, 0.68+/-0.03 when using woman's age, BIRADS rating, computed mean density and difference in computed bilateral mammographic density, respectively. Performance increased to 0.62+/-0.03 and 0.72+/-0.03 when we fused mean and difference in density with woman's age. The results suggest that, in this study, bilateral mammographic tissue density is a significantly stronger (p<0.01) risk indicator than both woman's age and mean breast density.

Response surface models for effects of temperature and previous growth sodium chloride on growth kinetics of Salmonella typhimurium on cooked chicken breast.

PubMed

Oscar, T P

1999-12-01

Response surface models were developed and validated for effects of temperature (10 to 40 degrees C) and previous growth NaCl (0.5 to 4.5%) on lag time (lambda) and specific growth rate (mu) of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast. Growth curves for model development (n = 55) and model validation (n = 16) were fit to a two-phase linear growth model to obtain lambda and mu of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast. Response surface models for natural logarithm transformations of lambda and mu as a function of temperature and previous growth NaCl were obtained by regression analysis. Both lambda and mu of Salmonella Typhimurium were affected (P < 0.0001) by temperature but not by previous growth NaCl. Models were validated against data not used in their development. Mean absolute relative error of predictions (model accuracy) was 26.6% for lambda and 15.4% for mu. Median relative error of predictions (model bias) was 0.9% for lambda and 5.2% for mu. Results indicated that the models developed provided reliable predictions of lambda and mu of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast within the matrix of conditions modeled. In addition, results indicated that previous growth NaCl (0.5 to 4.5%) was not a major factor affecting subsequent growth kinetics of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast. Thus, inclusion of previous growth NaCl in predictive models may not significantly improve our ability to predict growth of Salmonella spp. on food subjected to temperature abuse.

Developing and Testing a Model to Predict Outcomes of Organizational Change

PubMed Central

Gustafson, David H; Sainfort, François; Eichler, Mary; Adams, Laura; Bisognano, Maureen; Steudel, Harold

2003-01-01

Objective To test the effectiveness of a Bayesian model employing subjective probability estimates for predicting success and failure of health care improvement projects. Data Sources Experts' subjective assessment data for model development and independent retrospective data on 221 healthcare improvement projects in the United States, Canada, and the Netherlands collected between 1996 and 2000 for validation. Methods A panel of theoretical and practical experts and literature in organizational change were used to identify factors predicting the outcome of improvement efforts. A Bayesian model was developed to estimate probability of successful change using subjective estimates of likelihood ratios and prior odds elicited from the panel of experts. A subsequent retrospective empirical analysis of change efforts in 198 health care organizations was performed to validate the model. Logistic regression and ROC analysis were used to evaluate the model's performance using three alternative definitions of success. Data Collection For the model development, experts' subjective assessments were elicited using an integrative group process. For the validation study, a staff person intimately involved in each improvement project responded to a written survey asking questions about model factors and project outcomes. Results Logistic regression chi-square statistics and areas under the ROC curve demonstrated a high level of model performance in predicting success. Chi-square statistics were significant at the 0.001 level and areas under the ROC curve were greater than 0.84. Conclusions A subjective Bayesian model was effective in predicting the outcome of actual improvement projects. Additional prospective evaluations as well as testing the impact of this model as an intervention are warranted. PMID:12785571

Clinical assessment is an accurate predictor of which patients will need septoplasty.

PubMed

Sedaghat, Ahmad R; Busaba, Nicolas Y; Cunningham, Michael J; Kieff, David A

2013-01-01

Septoplasty is a frequently performed surgical procedure with the most common indication being nasal airway obstruction. Almost universally, health insurance companies mandate a trial of medical therapy consisting of intranasal corticosteroids prior to performance of septoplasty regardless of clinical assessment. Evidence for this requirement is lacking. We sought to evaluate the initial clinical assessment as a predictor of response to this mandated trial of medical treatment. Retrospective review of prospectively collected data on 137 consecutive patients who presented with symptoms of nasal obstruction and a deviated nasal septum on physical examination. Patients were placed into one of three cohorts based on prediction of 1) failure of medical therapy with subsequent septoplasty, 2) success of medical therapy without subsequent septoplasty, or 3) unable to make a prediction. Patients from each cohort were assessed for subsequent response to medical therapy and ultimate need for septoplasty. Overall clinical assessment had a sensitivity of 86.9%, specificity of 91.8%, positive predictive value of 93.6%, and negative predictive value of 96.4% for detecting/predicting need for septoplasty. The accuracy of the overall clinical assessment is considerably better than severe deviation at any one septal anatomical site. Of patients whose response to medical therapy could not be predicted, 61.3% failed medical therapy and needed surgery; this is statistically equivalent to a 50/50 distribution between either needing septoplasty or not. Clinical assessment at initial presentation of patients with nasal obstruction and deviated septum is highly accurate in predicting which patients will need septoplasty. Copyright © 2012 The American Laryngological, Rhinological, and Otological Society, Inc.

The role of fear in predicting sexually transmitted infection screening.

PubMed

Shepherd, Lee; Smith, Michael A

2017-07-01

This study assessed the extent to which social-cognitive factors (attitude, subjective norm and perceived control) and the fear of a positive test result predict sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening intentions and subsequent behaviour. Study 1 (N = 85) used a longitudinal design to assess the factors that predict STI screening intention and future screening behaviour measured one month later at Time 2. Study 2 (N = 102) used an experimental design to determine whether the relationship between fear and screening varied depending on whether STI or HIV screening was being assessed both before and after controlling for social-cognitive factors. Across the studies the outcome measures were sexual health screening. In both studies, the fear of having an STI positively predicted STI screening intention. In Study 1, fear, but not the social-cognitive factors, also predicted subsequent STI screening behaviour. In Study 2, the fear of having HIV did not predict HIV screening intention, but attitude negatively and response efficacy positively predicted screening intention. This study highlights the importance of considering the nature of the health condition when assessing the role of fear on health promotion.

Improving promoter prediction for the NNPP2.2 algorithm: a case study using Escherichia coli DNA sequences.

PubMed

Burden, S; Lin, Y-X; Zhang, R

2005-03-01

Although a great deal of research has been undertaken in the area of promoter prediction, prediction techniques are still not fully developed. Many algorithms tend to exhibit poor specificity, generating many false positives, or poor sensitivity. The neural network prediction program NNPP2.2 is one such example. To improve the NNPP2.2 prediction technique, the distance between the transcription start site (TSS) associated with the promoter and the translation start site (TLS) of the subsequent gene coding region has been studied for Escherichia coli K12 bacteria. An empirical probability distribution that is consistent for all E.coli promoters has been established. This information is combined with the results from NNPP2.2 to create a new technique called TLS-NNPP, which improves the specificity of promoter prediction. The technique is shown to be effective using E.coli DNA sequences, however, it is applicable to any organism for which a set of promoters has been experimentally defined. The data used in this project and the prediction results for the tested sequences can be obtained from http://www.uow.edu.au/~yanxia/E_Coli_paper/SBurden_Results.xls alh98@uow.edu.au.

Assessing the predictive value of the American Board of Family Practice In-training Examination.

PubMed

Replogle, William H; Johnson, William D

2004-03-01

The American Board of Family Practice In-training Examination (ABFP ITE) is a cognitive examination similar in content to the ABFP Certification Examination (CE). The ABFP ITE is widely used in family medicine residency programs. It was originally developed and intended to be used for assessment of groups of residents. Despite lack of empirical support, however, some residency programs are using ABFP ITE scores as individual resident performance indicators. This study's objective was to estimate the positive predictive value of the ABFP ITE for identifying residents at risk for poor performance on the ABFP CE or a subsequent ABFP ITE. We used a normal distribution model for correlated test scores and Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the effect of test reliability (measurement errors) on the positive predictive value of the ABFP ITE. The positive predictive value of the composite score was .72. The positive predictive value of the eight specialty subscales ranged from .26 to .57. Only the composite score of the ABFP ITE has acceptable positive predictive value to be used as part of a comprehension resident evaluation system. The ABFP ITE specialty subscales do not have sufficient positive predictive value or reliability to warrant use as performance indicators.

Advanced numerical models and material characterisation techniques for composite materials subject to impact and shock wave loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clegg, R. A.; White, D. M.; Hayhurst, C.; Ridel, W.; Harwick, W.; Hiermaier, S.

2003-09-01

The development and validation of an advanced material model for orthotropic materials, such as fibre reinforced composites, is described. The model is specifically designed to facilitate the numerical simulation of impact and shock wave propagation through orthotropic materials and the prediction of subsequent material damage. Initial development of the model concentrated on correctly representing shock wave propagation in composite materials under high and hypervelocity impact conditions [1]. This work has now been extended to further concentrate on the development of improved numerical models and material characterisation techniques for the prediction of damage, including residual strength, in fibre reinforced composite materials. The work is focussed on Kevlar-epoxy however materials such as CFRP are also being considered. The paper describes our most recent activities in relation to the implementation of advanced material modelling options in this area. These enable refined non-liner directional characteristics of composite materials to be modelled, in addition to the correct thermodynamic response under shock wave loading. The numerical work is backed by an extensive experimental programme covering a wide range of static and dynamic tests to facilitate derivation of model input data and to validate the predicted material response. Finally, the capability of the developing composite material model is discussed in relation to a hypervelocity impact problem.

Preclinical screening for retinopathy of prematurity risk using IGF1 levels at 3 weeks post-partum.

PubMed

Pérez-Muñuzuri, Alejandro; Couce-Pico, Maria Luz; Baña-Souto, Ana; López-Suárez, Olalla; Iglesias-Deus, Alicia; Blanco-Teijeiro, José; Fernández-Lorenzo, José Ramón; Fraga-Bermúdez, José María

2014-01-01

Following current recommendations for preventing retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) involves screening a large number of patients. We performed a prospective study to establish a useful screening system for ROP prediction and we have determined that measuring serum levels of IGF1 at week three and the presence of sepsis have a high predictive value for the subsequent development of ROP. A total of 145 premature newborn, with birthweight <1500 g and/or <32 weeks gestational age, were enrolled. 26.9% of them showed some form of retinopathy. A significant association was found between the development of retinopathy and each of the following variables: early gestational age, low birthweight, requiring mechanical ventilation, oxygen treatment, intracranial haemorrhage, sepsis during the first three weeks, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, the need for erythrocyte transfusion, erythropoietin treatment, and low levels of serum IGF1 in the third week. A multiple logistic regression analysis was used to obtain curves for the probability of developing ROP, based on the main factors linked with ROP, namely serum levels of IGF1 and presence of sepsis. Such preclinical screening has the ability to identify patients with high-risk of developing retinopathy and should lead to better prediction for ROP, while at the same time optimising the use of clinical resources, both human and material.

Prior nonhip limb fracture predicts subsequent hip fracture in institutionalized elderly people.

PubMed

Nakamura, K; Takahashi, S; Oyama, M; Oshiki, R; Kobayashi, R; Saito, T; Yoshizawa, Y; Tsuchiya, Y

2010-08-01

This 1-year cohort study of nursing home residents revealed that historical fractures of upper limbs or nonhip lower limbs were associated with hip fracture (hazard ratio = 2.14), independent of activities of daily living (ADL), mobility, dementia, weight, and type of nursing home. Prior nonhip fractures are useful for predicting of hip fracture in institutional settings. The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility of fracture history for the prediction of hip fracture in nursing home residents. This was a cohort study with a 1-year follow-up. Subjects were 8,905 residents of nursing homes in Niigata, Japan (mean age, 84.3 years). Fracture histories were obtained from nursing home medical records. ADL levels were assessed by caregivers. Hip fracture diagnosis was based on hospital medical records. Subjects had fracture histories of upper limbs (5.0%), hip (14.0%), and nonhip lower limbs (4.6%). Among historical single fractures, only prior nonhip lower limbs significantly predicted subsequent fracture (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.43; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.30-4.57). The stepwise method selected the best model, in which a combined historical fracture at upper limbs or nonhip lower limbs (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.30-3.52), dependence, ADL levels, mobility, dementia, weight, and type of nursing home independently predicted subsequent hip fracture. A fracture history at upper or nonhip lower limbs, in combination with other known risk factors, is useful for the prediction of future hip fracture in institutional settings.

Tests of the relative roles of calcium channels and calcium pumps in controlling gravity-directed development in single spore cells of the fern Ceratopteris richardii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roux, Stanley; Porterfield, D. Marshall; Haque, Aeraj Ul; Bushart, Thomas

The vector of gravity sets the direction of polarized development of single spore cells of the fern Ceratopteris richardii after light initiates their germination. Gravity also sets the direction of a trans-cell calcium current, which enters the cell along its bottom and exits it from its top. The direction of this current predicts the subsequent direction of spore development, and blocking this current with calcium channel blockers randomizes the direction of subsequent development. Recently the laboratory of D. Marshall Porterfield (Purdue University) developed a microchip device that can measure the direction and magnitude of the trans-spore calcium current in real time. Our laboratory in collaboration with Porterfield's recently found that this current inverts rapidly when the cells are turned upside down and that the magnitude of the current rises and falls with the magnitude of the g-force when these cells are tested in parabolic flight on the DC-9 aircraft. We assume that the gravity-directed entry of calcium into these cells is through calcium channels and its exit is through calcium pumps. Here we report our studies of a calcium pump that is highly expressed in the spores during the period when gravity is setting the direction of the calcium current, and we describe pharmacological tests of the relative importance of calcium pumps in maintaining the calcium current and in controlling the direction of subsequent spore development. We found that inhibitors that block the activity of calcium pumps also greatly depress the trans-cell current, but, surprisingly, have little effect on the ability of gravity to set the direction of spore development. These results, in combination with earlier findings, indicate that the gravity-directed opening of calcium channels along the bottom of spore cells plays a more important role in directing subsequent spore development than the activity of calcium pumps, despite the importance of these pumps in maintaining the trans-cell calcium current. Supported by NASA grants NAG2-1586 and NAG10-295 to S. J. R.

Assessment of a remote sensing-based model for predicting malaria transmission risk in villages of Chiapas, Mexico

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beck, L. R.; Rodriguez, M. H.; Dister, S. W.; Rodriguez, A. D.; Washino, R. K.; Roberts, D. R.; Spanner, M. A.

1997-01-01

A blind test of two remote sensing-based models for predicting adult populations of Anopheles albimanus in villages, an indicator of malaria transmission risk, was conducted in southern Chiapas, Mexico. One model was developed using a discriminant analysis approach, while the other was based on regression analysis. The models were developed in 1992 for an area around Tapachula, Chiapas, using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite data and geographic information system functions. Using two remotely sensed landscape elements, the discriminant model was able to successfully distinguish between villages with high and low An. albimanus abundance with an overall accuracy of 90%. To test the predictive capability of the models, multitemporal TM data were used to generate a landscape map of the Huixtla area, northwest of Tapachula, where the models were used to predict risk for 40 villages. The resulting predictions were not disclosed until the end of the test. Independently, An. albimanus abundance data were collected in the 40 randomly selected villages for which the predictions had been made. These data were subsequently used to assess the models' accuracies. The discriminant model accurately predicted 79% of the high-abundance villages and 50% of the low-abundance villages, for an overall accuracy of 70%. The regression model correctly identified seven of the 10 villages with the highest mosquito abundance. This test demonstrated that remote sensing-based models generated for one area can be used successfully in another, comparable area.

Driving anger in Ukraine: Appraisals, not trait driving anger, predict anger intensity while driving.

PubMed

Stephens, A N; Hill, T; Sullman, M J M

2016-03-01

Trait driving anger is often, but not always, found to predict both the intensity of anger while driving and subsequent crash-related behaviours. However, a number of studies have not found support for a direct relationship between one's tendency to become angry and anger reported while driving, suggesting that other factors may mediate this relationship. The present self-report study investigated whether, in anger provoking driving situations, the appraisals made by drivers influence the relationship between trait and state anger. A sample of 339 drivers from Ukraine completed the 33-item version of the Driver Anger Scale (DAS; Deffenbacher et al., 1994) and eight questions about their most recent experience of driving anger. A structural equation model found that the intensity of anger experienced was predicted by the negative evaluations of the situation, which was in turn predicted by trait driving anger. However, trait driving anger itself did not predict anger intensity; supporting the hypothesis that evaluations of the driving situation mediate the relationship between trait and state anger. Further, the unique structure of the DAS required to fit the data from the Ukrainian sample, may indicate that the anger inducing situations in Ukraine are different to those of a more developed country. Future research is needed to investigate driving anger in Ukraine in a broader sample and also to confirm the role of the appraisal process in the development of driving anger in both developed and undeveloped countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A web-based tool to predict acute kidney injury in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction: Development, internal validation and comparison.

PubMed

Zambetti, Benjamin R; Thomas, Fridtjof; Hwang, Inyong; Brown, Allen C; Chumpia, Mason; Ellis, Robert T; Naik, Darshan; Khouzam, Rami N; Ibebuogu, Uzoma N; Reed, Guy L

2017-01-01

In ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), acute kidney injury (AKI) may increase subsequent morbidity and mortality. Still, it remains difficult to predict AKI risk in these patients. We sought to 1) determine the frequency and clinical outcomes of AKI and, 2) develop, validate and compare a web-based tool for predicting AKI. In a racially diverse series of 1144 consecutive STEMI patients, Stage 1 or greater AKI occurred in 12.9% and was severe (Stage 2-3) in 2.9%. AKI was associated with increased mortality (5.7-fold, unadjusted) and hospital stay (2.5-fold). AKI was associated with systolic dysfunction, increased left ventricular end-diastolic pressures, hypotension and intra-aortic balloon counterpulsation. A computational algorithm (UT-AKI) was derived and internally validated. It showed higher sensitivity and improved overall prediction for AKI (area under the curve 0.76) vs. other published indices. Higher UT-AKI scores were associated with more severe AKI, longer hospital stay and greater hospital mortality. In a large, racially diverse cohort of STEMI patients, Stage 1 or greater AKI was relatively common and was associated with significant morbidity and mortality. A web-accessible, internally validated tool was developed with improved overall value for predicting AKI. By identifying patients at increased risk, this tool may help physicians tailor post-procedural diagnostic and therapeutic strategies after STEMI to reduce AKI and its associated morbidity and mortality.

PCM-SABRE: a platform for benchmarking and comparing outcome prediction methods in precision cancer medicine.

PubMed

Eyal-Altman, Noah; Last, Mark; Rubin, Eitan

2017-01-17

Numerous publications attempt to predict cancer survival outcome from gene expression data using machine-learning methods. A direct comparison of these works is challenging for the following reasons: (1) inconsistent measures used to evaluate the performance of different models, and (2) incomplete specification of critical stages in the process of knowledge discovery. There is a need for a platform that would allow researchers to replicate previous works and to test the impact of changes in the knowledge discovery process on the accuracy of the induced models. We developed the PCM-SABRE platform, which supports the entire knowledge discovery process for cancer outcome analysis. PCM-SABRE was developed using KNIME. By using PCM-SABRE to reproduce the results of previously published works on breast cancer survival, we define a baseline for evaluating future attempts to predict cancer outcome with machine learning. We used PCM-SABRE to replicate previous work that describe predictive models of breast cancer recurrence, and tested the performance of all possible combinations of feature selection methods and data mining algorithms that was used in either of the works. We reconstructed the work of Chou et al. observing similar trends - superior performance of Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) and logistic regression (LR) algorithms and inconclusive impact of feature pre-selection with the decision tree algorithm on subsequent analysis. PCM-SABRE is a software tool that provides an intuitive environment for rapid development of predictive models in cancer precision medicine.

Monte Carlo simulations guided by imaging to predict the in vitro ranking of radiosensitizing nanoparticles

PubMed Central

Retif, Paul; Reinhard, Aurélie; Paquot, Héna; Jouan-Hureaux, Valérie; Chateau, Alicia; Sancey, Lucie; Barberi-Heyob, Muriel; Pinel, Sophie; Bastogne, Thierry

2016-01-01

This article addresses the in silico–in vitro prediction issue of organometallic nanoparticles (NPs)-based radiosensitization enhancement. The goal was to carry out computational experiments to quickly identify efficient nanostructures and then to preferentially select the most promising ones for the subsequent in vivo studies. To this aim, this interdisciplinary article introduces a new theoretical Monte Carlo computational ranking method and tests it using 3 different organometallic NPs in terms of size and composition. While the ranking predicted in a classical theoretical scenario did not fit the reference results at all, in contrast, we showed for the first time how our accelerated in silico virtual screening method, based on basic in vitro experimental data (which takes into account the NPs cell biodistribution), was able to predict a relevant ranking in accordance with in vitro clonogenic efficiency. This corroborates the pertinence of such a prior ranking method that could speed up the preclinical development of NPs in radiation therapy. PMID:27920524

Development of Thin-Walled Magnesium Alloy Extrusions for Improved Crash Performance Based Upon Texture Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Bruce W.; Agnew, Sean R.; Klein, Robert W.; McKinley, Jonathan

Recent investigations suggest that it is possible to achieve dramatic modifications to both strength and ductility of magnesium alloys through a combination of alloying, grain refinement, and texture control. The current work explores the possibility of altering the texture in extruded thin-walled magnesium alloy tubes for improved ductility during axial crush in which energy is absorbed through progressive buckling. The texture evolution was predicted using the viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) crystal plasticity model, with strain path input from continuum-based finite element simulations of extrusion. A limited diversity of textures can be induced by altering the strain path through the extrusion die design. In some cases, such as for simple bar extrusion, the textures predicted can be connected with simple shape change. In other cases, a subtle influence of strain path involving shear-reverse-shear is predicted. The most promising textures predicted for a variety of strain paths are selected for subsequent experimental study.

Monte Carlo simulations guided by imaging to predict the in vitro ranking of radiosensitizing nanoparticles.

PubMed

Retif, Paul; Reinhard, Aurélie; Paquot, Héna; Jouan-Hureaux, Valérie; Chateau, Alicia; Sancey, Lucie; Barberi-Heyob, Muriel; Pinel, Sophie; Bastogne, Thierry

This article addresses the in silico-in vitro prediction issue of organometallic nanoparticles (NPs)-based radiosensitization enhancement. The goal was to carry out computational experiments to quickly identify efficient nanostructures and then to preferentially select the most promising ones for the subsequent in vivo studies. To this aim, this interdisciplinary article introduces a new theoretical Monte Carlo computational ranking method and tests it using 3 different organometallic NPs in terms of size and composition. While the ranking predicted in a classical theoretical scenario did not fit the reference results at all, in contrast, we showed for the first time how our accelerated in silico virtual screening method, based on basic in vitro experimental data (which takes into account the NPs cell biodistribution), was able to predict a relevant ranking in accordance with in vitro clonogenic efficiency. This corroborates the pertinence of such a prior ranking method that could speed up the preclinical development of NPs in radiation therapy.

Energy prediction using spatiotemporal pattern networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Zhanhong; Liu, Chao; Akintayo, Adedotun

This paper presents a novel data-driven technique based on the spatiotemporal pattern network (STPN) for energy/power prediction for complex dynamical systems. Built on symbolic dynamical filtering, the STPN framework is used to capture not only the individual system characteristics but also the pair-wise causal dependencies among different sub-systems. To quantify causal dependencies, a mutual information based metric is presented and an energy prediction approach is subsequently proposed based on the STPN framework. To validate the proposed scheme, two case studies are presented, one involving wind turbine power prediction (supply side energy) using the Western Wind Integration data set generated bymore » the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for identifying spatiotemporal characteristics, and the other, residential electric energy disaggregation (demand side energy) using the Building America 2010 data set from NREL for exploring temporal features. In the energy disaggregation context, convex programming techniques beyond the STPN framework are developed and applied to achieve improved disaggregation performance.« less

Risk prediction models of breast cancer: a systematic review of model performances.

PubMed

Anothaisintawee, Thunyarat; Teerawattananon, Yot; Wiratkapun, Chollathip; Kasamesup, Vijj; Thakkinstian, Ammarin

2012-05-01

The number of risk prediction models has been increasingly developed, for estimating about breast cancer in individual women. However, those model performances are questionable. We therefore have conducted a study with the aim to systematically review previous risk prediction models. The results from this review help to identify the most reliable model and indicate the strengths and weaknesses of each model for guiding future model development. We searched MEDLINE (PubMed) from 1949 and EMBASE (Ovid) from 1974 until October 2010. Observational studies which constructed models using regression methods were selected. Information about model development and performance were extracted. Twenty-five out of 453 studies were eligible. Of these, 18 developed prediction models and 7 validated existing prediction models. Up to 13 variables were included in the models and sample sizes for each study ranged from 550 to 2,404,636. Internal validation was performed in four models, while five models had external validation. Gail and Rosner and Colditz models were the significant models which were subsequently modified by other scholars. Calibration performance of most models was fair to good (expected/observe ratio: 0.87-1.12), but discriminatory accuracy was poor to fair both in internal validation (concordance statistics: 0.53-0.66) and in external validation (concordance statistics: 0.56-0.63). Most models yielded relatively poor discrimination in both internal and external validation. This poor discriminatory accuracy of existing models might be because of a lack of knowledge about risk factors, heterogeneous subtypes of breast cancer, and different distributions of risk factors across populations. In addition the concordance statistic itself is insensitive to measure the improvement of discrimination. Therefore, the new method such as net reclassification index should be considered to evaluate the improvement of the performance of a new develop model.

Predictive Models of Cognitive Outcomes of Developmental Insults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Yupo; Bouaynaya, Nidhal; Chowdhury, Parimal; Leszczynska, Danuta; Patterson, Tucker A.; Tarasenko, Olga

2010-04-01

Representatives of Arkansas medical, research and educational institutions have gathered over the past four years to discuss the relationship between functional developmental perturbations and their neurological consequences. We wish to track the effect on the nervous system by developmental perturbations over time and across species. Except for perturbations, the sequence of events that occur during neural development was found to be remarkably conserved across mammalian species. The tracking includes consequences on anatomical regions and behavioral changes. The ultimate goal is to develop a predictive model of long-term genotypic and phenotypic outcomes that includes developmental insults. Such a model can subsequently be fostered into an educated intervention for therapeutic purposes. Several datasets were identified to test plausible hypotheses, ranging from evoked potential datasets to sleep-disorder datasets. An initial model may be mathematical and conceptual. However, we expect to see rapid progress as large-scale gene expression studies in the mammalian brain permit genome-wide searches to discover genes that are uniquely expressed in brain circuits and regions. These genes ultimately control behavior. By using a validated model we endeavor to make useful predictions.

Predicting the Individual Risk of Acute Severe Colitis at Diagnosis.

PubMed

Cesarini, Monica; Collins, Gary S; Rönnblom, Anders; Santos, Antonieta; Wang, Lai Mun; Sjöberg, Daniel; Parkes, Miles; Keshav, Satish; Travis, Simon P L

2017-03-01

Acute severe colitis [ASC] is associated with major morbidity. We aimed to develop and externally validate an index that predicted ASC within 3 years of diagnosis. The development cohort included patients aged 16-89 years, diagnosed with ulcerative colitis [UC] in Oxford and followed for 3 years. Primary outcome was hospitalization for ASC, excluding patients admitted within 1 month of diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression examined the adjusted association of seven risk factors with ASC. Backwards elimination produced a parsimonious model that was simplified to create an easy-to-use index. External validation occurred in separate cohorts from Cambridge, UK, and Uppsala, Sweden. The development cohort [Oxford] included 34/111 patients who developed ASC within a median 14 months [range 1-29]. The final model applied the sum of 1 point each for extensive disease, C-reactive protein [CRP] > 10mg/l, or haemoglobin < 12g/dl F or < 14g/dl M at diagnosis, to give a score from 0/3 to 3/3. This predicted a 70% risk of developing ASC within 3 years [score 3/3]. Validation cohorts included different proportions with ASC [Cambridge = 25/96; Uppsala = 18/298]. Of those scoring 3/3 at diagnosis, 18/18 [Cambridge] and 12/13 [Uppsala] subsequently developed ASC. Discriminant ability [c-index, where 1.0 = perfect discrimination] was 0.81 [Oxford], 0.95 [Cambridge], 0.97 [Uppsala]. Internal validation using bootstrapping showed good calibration, with similar predicted risk across all cohorts. A nomogram predicted individual risk. An index applied at diagnosis reliably predicts the risk of ASC within 3 years in different populations. Patients with a score 3/3 at diagnosis may merit early immunomodulator therapy. Copyright © 2016 European Crohn’s and Colitis Organisation (ECCO). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Predicting Free Recalls

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laming, Donald

2006-01-01

This article reports some calculations on free-recall data from B. Murdock and J. Metcalfe (1978), with vocal rehearsal during the presentation of a list. Given the sequence of vocalizations, with the stimuli inserted in their proper places, it is possible to predict the subsequent sequence of recalls--the predictions taking the form of a…

Neural Reactivity to Emotional Faces Mediates the Relationship Between Childhood Empathy and Adolescent Prosocial Behavior

PubMed Central

Flournoy, John C.; Pfeifer, Jennifer H.; Moore, William E.; Tackman, Allison; Masten, Carrie L.; Mazziotta, John C.; Iacoboni, Marco; Dapretto, Mirella

2017-01-01

Reactivity to others' emotions can result in empathic concern (EC), an important motivator of prosocial behavior, but can also result in personal distress (PD), which may hinder prosocial behavior. Examining neural substrates of emotional reactivity may elucidate how EC and PD differentially influence prosocial behavior. Participants (N=57) provided measures of EC, PD, prosocial behavior, and neural responses to emotional expressions at age 10 and 13. Initial EC predicted subsequent prosocial behavior. Initial EC and PD predicted subsequent reactivity to emotions in the inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) and inferior parietal lobule, respectively. Activity in the IFG, a region linked to mirror neuron processes, as well as cognitive control and language, mediated the relation between initial EC and subsequent prosocial behavior. PMID:28262939

Longitudinal evaluation of criteria for subjective cognitive decline and preclinical Alzheimer's disease in a memory clinic sample.

PubMed

Eckerström, Marie; Göthlin, Mattias; Rolstad, Sindre; Hessen, Erik; Eckerström, Carl; Nordlund, Arto; Johansson, Boo; Svensson, Johan; Jonsson, Michael; Sacuiu, Simona; Wallin, Anders

2017-01-01

Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) and biomarker-based "at-risk" concepts such as "preclinical" Alzheimer's disease (AD) have been developed to predict AD dementia before objective cognitive impairment is detectable. We longitudinally evaluated cognitive outcome when using these classifications. Memory clinic patients ( n  = 235) were classified as SCD ( n  = 122): subtle cognitive decline ( n  = 36) and mild cognitive impairment ( n  = 77) and subsequently subclassified into SCDplus and National Institute on Aging-Alzheimer's Association (NIA-AA) stages 0 to 3. Mean (standard deviation) follow-up time was 48 (35) months. Proportion declining cognitively and prognostic accuracy for cognitive decline was calculated for all classifications. Among SCDplus patients, 43% to 48% declined cognitively. Among NIA-AA stage 1 to 3 patients, 50% to 100% declined cognitively. The highest positive likelihood ratios (+LRs) for subsequent cognitive decline (+LR 6.3), dementia (+LR 3.4), and AD dementia (+LR 6.5) were found for NIA-AA stage 2. In a memory clinic setting, NIA-AA stage 2 seems to be the most successful classification in predicting objective cognitive decline, dementia, and AD dementia.

Predictions of Microstreamer Properties in Dielectric Barrier Discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xudong; Kushner, Mark J.

1997-10-01

Dielectric Barrier Discharges (DBD) are being investigated for plasma remediation of toxic gases. The microstreamers in DBD's (10s - 100s μm's diameter) are terminated by dielectric charging which removes voltage from the gap. The microstreamers grow by radial diffusion into regions of high electric field and subsequent avalanche. 1-d and 2-d plasma hydrodynamics models have been developed to investigate these processes in DBDs sustained in air, nonattaching gases (Ar, N_2) and highly attaching gas mixtures (10s to 100s ppm of CCl_4). We found that microstreamers continue to radially expand as long as there is sufficient applied voltage in the absence of dielectric charging in advance of the core of the microstreamer. This observation implies that there is a finite surface conductivity which allows radial flow of current and subsequent charging of the dielectric. Predictions for microstreamer radii using this process agree well with experiments.(J. Coogan, Trans. Plasma Sci. 24, 91 (1996)) We also found that in electronegative gases, voltage collapes in the core of the streamer results in cooling and rapid attachment of electrons, creating a core which is largely converted to a negative ion-positive ion plasma, surrounded by an avalanching shell of hot electrons.

Cerebral radiation necrosis: incidence, outcomes, and risk factors with emphasis on radiation parameters and chemotherapy.

PubMed

Ruben, Jeremy D; Dally, Michael; Bailey, Michael; Smith, Robin; McLean, Catriona A; Fedele, Pasqual

2006-06-01

To investigate radiation necrosis in patients treated for glioma in terms of incidence, outcomes, predictive and prognostic factors. Records were reviewed for 426 patients followed up until death or for at least 3 years. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictive and prognostic factors. Multivariate survival analysis was conducted using Cox proportional hazards regression. Separate analyses were performed for the subset of 352 patients who received a biologically effective dose (BED) > or =85.5 Gy2 (> or =45 Gy/25 fractions) who were at highest risk for radionecrosis. Twenty-one patients developed radionecrosis (4.9%). Actuarial incidence plateaued at 13.3% after 3 years. In the high-risk subset, radiation parameters confirmed as risk factors included total dose (p < 0.001), BED (p < 0.005), neuret (p < 0.001), fraction size (p = 0.028), and the product of total dose and fraction size (p = 0.001). No patient receiving a BED <96 Gy2 developed radionecrosis. Subsequent chemotherapy significantly increased the risk of cerebral necrosis (p = 0.001) even when adjusted for BED (odds ratio [OR], 5.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6-20.3) or length of follow-up (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 1.5-19.3). Concurrent use of valproate appeared to delay the onset of necrosis (p = 0.013). The development of radionecrosis did not affect survival (p = 0.09). Cerebral necrosis is unlikely at doses below 50 Gy in 25 fractions. The risk increases significantly with increasing radiation dose, fraction size, and the subsequent administration of chemotherapy.

A data-based model to locate mass movements triggered by seismic events in Sichuan, China.

PubMed

de Souza, Fabio Teodoro

2014-01-01

Earthquakes affect the entire world and have catastrophic consequences. On May 12, 2008, an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 on the Richter scale occurred in the Wenchuan area of Sichuan province in China. This event, together with subsequent aftershocks, caused many avalanches, landslides, debris flows, collapses, and quake lakes and induced numerous unstable slopes. This work proposes a methodology that uses a data mining approach and geographic information systems to predict these mass movements based on their association with the main and aftershock epicenters, geologic faults, riverbeds, and topography. A dataset comprising 3,883 mass movements is analyzed, and some models to predict the location of these mass movements are developed. These predictive models could be used by the Chinese authorities as an important tool for identifying risk areas and rescuing survivors during similar events in the future.

Predicting adverse hemodynamic events in critically ill patients.

PubMed

Yoon, Joo H; Pinsky, Michael R

2018-06-01

The art of predicting future hemodynamic instability in the critically ill has rapidly become a science with the advent of advanced analytical processed based on computer-driven machine learning techniques. How these methods have progressed beyond severity scoring systems to interface with decision-support is summarized. Data mining of large multidimensional clinical time-series databases using a variety of machine learning tools has led to our ability to identify alert artifact and filter it from bedside alarms, display real-time risk stratification at the bedside to aid in clinical decision-making and predict the subsequent development of cardiorespiratory insufficiency hours before these events occur. This fast evolving filed is primarily limited by linkage of high-quality granular to physiologic rationale across heterogeneous clinical care domains. Using advanced analytic tools to glean knowledge from clinical data streams is rapidly becoming a reality whose clinical impact potential is great.

PARC Navier-Stokes code upgrade and validation for high speed aeroheating predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liver, Peter A.; Praharaj, Sarat C.; Seaford, C. Mark

1990-01-01

Applications of the PARC full Navier-Stokes code for hypersonic flowfield and aeroheating predictions around blunt bodies such as the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) and Aeroassisted Orbital Transfer Vehicle (AOTV) are evaluated. Two-dimensional/axisymmetric and three-dimensional perfect gas versions of the code were upgraded and tested against benchmark wind tunnel cases of hemisphere-cylinder, three-dimensional AFE forebody, and axisymmetric AFE and AOTV aerobrake/wake flowfields. PARC calculations are in good agreement with experimental data and results of similar computer codes. Difficulties encountered in flowfield and heat transfer predictions due to effects of grid density, boundary conditions such as singular stagnation line axis and artificial dissipation terms are presented together with subsequent improvements made to the code. The experience gained with the perfect gas code is being currently utilized in applications of an equilibrium air real gas PARC version developed at REMTECH.

Seizure detection, seizure prediction, and closed-loop warning systems in epilepsy.

PubMed

Ramgopal, Sriram; Thome-Souza, Sigride; Jackson, Michele; Kadish, Navah Ester; Sánchez Fernández, Iván; Klehm, Jacquelyn; Bosl, William; Reinsberger, Claus; Schachter, Steven; Loddenkemper, Tobias

2014-08-01

Nearly one-third of patients with epilepsy continue to have seizures despite optimal medication management. Systems employed to detect seizures may have the potential to improve outcomes in these patients by allowing more tailored therapies and might, additionally, have a role in accident and SUDEP prevention. Automated seizure detection and prediction require algorithms which employ feature computation and subsequent classification. Over the last few decades, methods have been developed to detect seizures utilizing scalp and intracranial EEG, electrocardiography, accelerometry and motion sensors, electrodermal activity, and audio/video captures. To date, it is unclear which combination of detection technologies yields the best results, and approaches may ultimately need to be individualized. This review presents an overview of seizure detection and related prediction methods and discusses their potential uses in closed-loop warning systems in epilepsy. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The effect of acetyl strophanthidin on the hearts of normal dogs.

PubMed

Hayes, A H; McShane, W P; Sidell, F R

1970-05-01

1. The ED50 of acetyl strophanthidin for producing ventricular arrhythmias in normal dogs was 54.5 mug/kg intravenously.2. Doses up to and including those which caused ventricular tachycardia did not produce either atrial arrhythmias or significant aberration of A-V conduction.3. Although the classic digitalis-induced rate and e.c.g. waveform changes may appear after administration of acetyl strophanthidin, their presence or absence have no value in predicting the subsequent development of ventricular arrhythmias.

Logistic Mixed Models to Investigate Implicit and Explicit Belief Tracking

PubMed Central

Lages, Martin; Scheel, Anne

2016-01-01

We investigated the proposition of a two-systems Theory of Mind in adults’ belief tracking. A sample of N = 45 participants predicted the choice of one of two opponent players after observing several rounds in an animated card game. Three matches of this card game were played and initial gaze direction on target and subsequent choice predictions were recorded for each belief task and participant. We conducted logistic regressions with mixed effects on the binary data and developed Bayesian logistic mixed models to infer implicit and explicit mentalizing in true belief and false belief tasks. Although logistic regressions with mixed effects predicted the data well a Bayesian logistic mixed model with latent task- and subject-specific parameters gave a better account of the data. As expected explicit choice predictions suggested a clear understanding of true and false beliefs (TB/FB). Surprisingly, however, model parameters for initial gaze direction also indicated belief tracking. We discuss why task-specific parameters for initial gaze directions are different from choice predictions yet reflect second-order perspective taking. PMID:27853440

Predicting future depression in adolescents using the Short Mood and Feelings Questionnaire: a two-nation study

PubMed Central

McKenzie, Dean P.; Toumbourou, John W.; Forbes, Andrew B.; Mackinnon, Andrew J.; McMorris, Barbara J.; Catalano, Richard F.; Patton, George C.

2011-01-01

Background Adolescence is a key life period for the development of depression. Predicting the development of depression in adolescence through detecting specific early symptoms may aid in the development of timely screening and intervention programs. Methods We administered the Short Mood and Feelings Questionnaire (SMFQ) to 5,769 American and Australian students aged 10 to 15 years, at two time points, separated by 12 months. We attempted to predict high levels of depression symptoms at 12 months from symptoms at baseline, using statistical approaches based upon the quality, as well as the quantity, of depression symptoms present. These approaches included classification and regression trees (CART) and logistic regression. Results A classification tree employing four SMFQ items, such as feelings of self-hatred and of being unloved, performed almost as well as all 13 SMFQ items at predicting subsequent depression symptomatology. Limitations Depression was measured using a self-report instrument, rather than a criterion standard diagnostic interview. Conclusion Further validation on other populations of adolescents is required: however the results suggest that several symptoms of depression, especially feelings of self-hatred, and being unloved, are associated with increased levels of self-reported depression at 12 months. Although screening for depression can be problematic, symptoms such as the ones above should be considered for inclusion in screening tests for adolescents. PMID:21669461

Progress and challenges in the development of physically-based numerical models for prediction of flow and contaminant dispersion in the urban environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lien, F. S.; Yee, E.; Ji, H.; Keats, A.; Hsieh, K. J.

2006-06-01

The release of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) agents by terrorists or rogue states in a North American city (densely populated urban centre) and the subsequent exposure, deposition and contamination are emerging threats in an uncertain world. The modeling of the transport, dispersion, deposition and fate of a CBRN agent released in an urban environment is an extremely complex problem that encompasses potentially multiple space and time scales. The availability of high-fidelity, time-dependent models for the prediction of a CBRN agent's movement and fate in a complex urban environment can provide the strongest technical and scientific foundation for support of Canada's more broadly based effort at advancing counter-terrorism planning and operational capabilities.The objective of this paper is to report the progress of developing and validating an integrated, state-of-the-art, high-fidelity multi-scale, multi-physics modeling system for the accurate and efficient prediction of urban flow and dispersion of CBRN (and other toxic) materials discharged into these flows. Development of this proposed multi-scale modeling system will provide the real-time modeling and simulation tool required to predict injuries, casualties and contamination and to make relevant decisions (based on the strongest technical and scientific foundations) in order to minimize the consequences of a CBRN incident in a populated centre.

The relationship between postpartum depression, domestic violence, childhood violence, and substance use: epidemiologic study of a large community sample.

PubMed

Dennis, Cindy-Lee; Vigod, Simone

2013-04-01

The objective of this study was to determine the contribution of interpersonal violence and substance use to the prediction of postpartum depressive symptomatology. A community-based sample of 634 women in British Columbia, Canada was screened for interpersonal violence and substance use using the Antenatal Psychosocial Health Assessment (ALPHA) form. Of these women, 497 (78%) subsequently completed questionnaires at 8 weeks postpartum to assess for depressive symptomatology using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). A predictive model for postpartum depressive symptomatology (EPDS > 9) was developed using regression analysis. Findings suggest that women who experience past or current interpersonal violence or personal or partner substance use problems should be considered for targeted screening for postpartum depression (PPD).

Eldercare responsibilities, interrole conflict, and employee absence: a daily study.

PubMed

Hepburn, C G; Barling, J

1996-07-01

A model was developed specifying that the number of hours employees spend providing care to or interacting with elderly parents predicts conflict between the roles of employee and caregiver. Interrole conflict was subsequently expected to predict partial absence from work (e.g., arriving late). Seventeen employed eldercare providers completed a daily questionnaire for 20 work days. The data were standardized and pooled, and the proposed model was tested by using structural equation modeling. The proposed model provided a good fit to the data. A competing model that added the direct effects of hours of interacting with and hours of providing care to parents on partial absence provided a significantly better fit. The potential impact of the findings on employees and organizations is discussed.

On splice site prediction using weight array models: a comparison of smoothing techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taher, Leila; Meinicke, Peter; Morgenstern, Burkhard

2007-11-01

In most eukaryotic genes, protein-coding exons are separated by non-coding introns which are removed from the primary transcript by a process called "splicing". The positions where introns are cut and exons are spliced together are called "splice sites". Thus, computational prediction of splice sites is crucial for gene finding in eukaryotes. Weight array models are a powerful probabilistic approach to splice site detection. Parameters for these models are usually derived from m-tuple frequencies in trusted training data and subsequently smoothed to avoid zero probabilities. In this study we compare three different ways of parameter estimation for m-tuple frequencies, namely (a) non-smoothed probability estimation, (b) standard pseudo counts and (c) a Gaussian smoothing procedure that we recently developed.

Next-generation prognostic assessment for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

PubMed Central

Staton, Ashley D; Kof, Jean L; Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Flowers, Christopher R

2015-01-01

Current standard of care therapy for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) cures a majority of patients with additional benefit in salvage therapy and autologous stem cell transplant for patients who relapse. The next generation of prognostic models for DLBCL aims to more accurately stratify patients for novel therapies and risk-adapted treatment strategies. This review discusses the significance of host genetic and tumor genomic alterations seen in DLBCL, clinical and epidemiologic factors, and how each can be integrated into risk stratification algorithms. In the future, treatment prediction and prognostic model development and subsequent validation will require data from a large number of DLBCL patients to establish sufficient statistical power to correctly predict outcome. Novel modeling approaches can augment these efforts. PMID:26289217

Next-generation prognostic assessment for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Staton, Ashley D; Koff, Jean L; Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Flowers, Christopher R

2015-01-01

Current standard of care therapy for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) cures a majority of patients with additional benefit in salvage therapy and autologous stem cell transplant for patients who relapse. The next generation of prognostic models for DLBCL aims to more accurately stratify patients for novel therapies and risk-adapted treatment strategies. This review discusses the significance of host genetic and tumor genomic alterations seen in DLBCL, clinical and epidemiologic factors, and how each can be integrated into risk stratification algorithms. In the future, treatment prediction and prognostic model development and subsequent validation will require data from a large number of DLBCL patients to establish sufficient statistical power to correctly predict outcome. Novel modeling approaches can augment these efforts.

Gender differences in motor skill proficiency from childhood to adolescence: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Barnett, Lisa M; van Beurden, Eric; Morgan, Philip J; Brooks, Lyndon O; Beard, John R

2010-06-01

Students' proficiency in three object control and three locomotor skills were assessed in 2000 (M age = 10.06 years, SD = 0.63) in New South Wales, Australia and in 2006-07 (M age = 16.44 years, SD = 0.64). In 2006-07, 266 students, 138 girls (51.9%) and 128 boys (48.1%), had at least one skill reassessed. Boys were more object control proficient than girls. Childhood object control proficiency significantly predicted (p = .001) adolescent object control proficiency (r2 = .39), and, while gender was significant (p = .001), it did not affect the relationship between these variables (p = .53). Because childhood object control proficiency is predictive of subsequent object control proficiency, developing skills in childhood is important.

Ganymede - A relationship between thermal history and crater statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, R. J.; Malin, M. C.

1980-01-01

An approach for factoring the effects of a planetary thermal history into a predicted set of crater statistics for an icy satellite is developed and forms the basis for subsequent data inversion studies. The key parameter is a thermal evolution-dependent critical time for which craters of a particular size forming earlier do not contribute to present-day statistics. An example is given for the satellite Ganymede and the effect of the thermal history is easily seen in the resulting predicted crater statistics. A preliminary comparison with the data, subject to the uncertainties in ice rheology and impact flux history, suggests a surface age of 3.8 x 10 to the 9th years and a radionuclide abundance of 0.3 times the chondritic value.

Nuclear fuel in a reactor accident.

PubMed

Burns, Peter C; Ewing, Rodney C; Navrotsky, Alexandra

2012-03-09

Nuclear accidents that lead to melting of a reactor core create heterogeneous materials containing hundreds of radionuclides, many with short half-lives. The long-lived fission products and transuranium elements within damaged fuel remain a concern for millennia. Currently, accurate fundamental models for the prediction of release rates of radionuclides from fuel, especially in contact with water, after an accident remain limited. Relatively little is known about fuel corrosion and radionuclide release under the extreme chemical, radiation, and thermal conditions during and subsequent to a nuclear accident. We review the current understanding of nuclear fuel interactions with the environment, including studies over the relatively narrow range of geochemical, hydrological, and radiation environments relevant to geological repository performance, and discuss priorities for research needed to develop future predictive models.

Rational design of new electrolyte materials for electrochemical double layer capacitors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schütter, Christoph; Husch, Tamara; Viswanathan, Venkatasubramanian; Passerini, Stefano; Balducci, Andrea; Korth, Martin

2016-09-01

The development of new electrolytes is a centerpiece of many strategies to improve electrochemical double layer capacitor (EDLC) devices. We present here a computational screening-based rational design approach to find new electrolyte materials. As an example application, the known chemical space of almost 70 million compounds is investigated in search of electrochemically more stable solvents. Cyano esters are identified as especially promising new compound class. Theoretical predictions are validated with subsequent experimental studies on a selected case. These studies show that based on theoretical predictions only, a previously untested, but very well performing compound class was identified. We thus find that our rational design strategy is indeed able to successfully identify completely new materials with substantially improved properties.

Do guilt- and shame-proneness differentially predict prosocial, aggressive, and withdrawn behaviors during early adolescence?

PubMed

Roos, Sanna; Hodges, Ernest V E; Salmivalli, Christina

2014-03-01

In this short-term longitudinal study, we systematically examined the distinctiveness of guilt- and shame-proneness in early adolescents (N = 395, mean age = 11.8 years) in terms of differential relations with peer reported prosocial behavior, withdrawal, and aggression. Results from structural equation modeling indicated that guilt-proneness concurrently predicted more aggressive and less prosocial behavior as well as subsequent increases in prosocial behavior. Shame-proneness predicted subsequent decreases in prosocial behavior. Although girls reported a greater proneness to experience guilt and shame than boys, the associations between the two dispositional emotions and social behaviors were found to be similar across time and gender. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Student Attitudes and Academic Background as Predictors of Achievement in College English.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

House, J. Daniel; Prion, Susan K.

1998-01-01

This study investigated the predictive relationship between student attitudes and their subsequent achievement in a freshman composition course. Results indicated that academic background and student attitudes were significantly correlated with subsequent grade performance. Attitude variables were more closely related to overall grade performance…

Effects of Mother-Infant Social Interactions on Infants' Subsequent Contingency Task Performance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dunham, Philip; Dunham, Frances

1990-01-01

Infants participated in a nonsocial contingency task immediately after a social interaction with their mothers. The amount of time mothers and infants spent in a state of vocal turn-taking predicted individual differences in infants' subsequent performance on the contingency task. (PCB)

Relevant microclimate for determining the development rate of malaria mosquitoes and possible implications of climate change.

PubMed

Paaijmans, Krijn P; Imbahale, Susan S; Thomas, Matthew B; Takken, Willem

2010-07-09

The relationship between mosquito development and temperature is one of the keys to understanding the current and future dynamics and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Many process-based models use mean air temperature to estimate larval development times, and hence adult vector densities and/or malaria risk. Water temperatures in three different-sized water pools, as well as the adjacent air temperature in lowland and highland sites in western Kenya were monitored. Both air and water temperatures were fed into a widely-applied temperature-dependent development model for Anopheles gambiae immatures, and subsequently their impact on predicted vector abundance was assessed. Mean water temperature in typical mosquito breeding sites was 4-6 degrees C higher than the mean temperature of the adjacent air, resulting in larval development rates, and hence population growth rates, that are much higher than predicted based on air temperature. On the other hand, due to the non-linearities in the relationship between temperature and larval development rate, together with a marginal buffering in the increase in water temperature compared with air temperature, the relative increases in larval development rates predicted due to climate change are substantially less. Existing models will tend to underestimate mosquito population growth under current conditions, and may overestimate relative increases in population growth under future climate change. These results highlight the need for better integration of biological and environmental information at the scale relevant to mosquito biology.

IS TREATMENT ADHERENCE CONSISTENT ACROSS TIME, ACROSS DIFFERENT TREATMENTS, AND ACROSS DIAGNOSES?

PubMed Central

Simon, Gregory E; Peterson, Do; Hubbard, Rebecca

2012-01-01

Objective Examine consistency of adherence across depression treatments and consistency of adherence between depression treatments and treatments for chronic medical illness. Methods For 25,456 health plan members beginning psychotherapy for depression between 2003 and 2008, health plan records were used to examine adherence to all episodes of psychotherapy, antidepressant medication, antihypertensive medication, and lipid-lowering medication. Results Within treatments, adherence to psychotherapy in one episode predicted approximately 20% greater likelihood of subsequent psychotherapy adherence (OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.83 to 2.64). Similarly, adherence to antidepressant medication in one episode predicted approximately 20% greater likelihood of subsequent antidepressant adherence (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.74 to 2.28). Across treatments, adherence to antidepressant medication predicted approximately 10% greater likelihood of concurrent or subsequent adherence to psychotherapy (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.63), a 4% greater likelihood of adherence to antihypertensive medication (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.37) and a 3% greater likelihood of adherence to lipid-lowering medication (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.32). Adherence to psychotherapy predicted a 2% greater likelihood of concurrent or subsequent adherence to antihypertensive medication (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.19) and was not a significant predictor of adherence to lipid-lowering medication (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.18). Conclusions Adherence is moderately consistent across episodes of depression treatment. Depression treatment adherence is a statistically significant, but relatively weak, predictor of adherence to antihypertensive or lipid-lowering medication. PMID:23141589

Negative affect and a fluctuating jumping to conclusions bias predict subsequent paranoia in daily life: An online experience sampling study.

PubMed

Lüdtke, Thies; Kriston, Levente; Schröder, Johanna; Lincoln, Tania M; Moritz, Steffen

2017-09-01

Negative affect and a tendency to "jump to conclusions" (JTC) are associated with paranoia. So far, only negative affect has been examined as a precursor of subsequent paranoia in daily life using experience sampling (ESM). We addressed this research gap and used ESM to test whether JTC fluctuates in daily life, whether it predicts subsequent paranoia, and whether it mediates the effect of negative affect on paranoia. Thirty-five participants with schizophrenia spectrum disorders repeatedly self-reported negative affect, JTC, and paranoia via online questionnaires on two consecutive days. We measured JTC with a paradigm consisting of ambiguous written scenarios. Multilevel linear models were conducted. Most participants showed JTC consistently on two days rather than only on one day. When time was used as a predictor of JTC, significant slope variance indicated that for a subgroup of participants JTC fluctuated over time. For 48% of participants, these fluctuations equaled changes of approximately ±1 point on the four-point JTC scale within one day. There was no mediation. However, negative affect and JTC both significantly predicted subsequent paranoia. The ESM assessment period was short and encompassed few assessments (8 in total). Our findings indicate that JTC is both stable (regarding its mere occurrence) and fluctuating simultaneously (regarding its magnitude). Although JTC was not a mediator linking negative affect and paranoia, it did predict paranoia. Further ESM studies on JTC are needed to confirm our findings in longer assessment periods and with other JTC paradigms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of coping strategies on subsequent well-being in older patients with cancer: A comparison with 2 control groups.

PubMed

Baitar, Abdelbari; Buntinx, Frank; De Burghgraeve, Tine; Deckx, Laura; Schrijvers, Dirk; Wildiers, Hans; van den Akker, Marjan

2018-03-01

To evaluate dispositional coping strategies as predictors for changes in well-being after 1 year in older patients with cancer (OCP) and 2 control groups. OCP were compared with 2 control groups: middle-aged patients with cancer (MCP) (aging effect) and older patients without cancer (ONC) (cancer effect). Patients were interviewed shortly after a cancer diagnosis and 1 year later. Dispositional coping was measured with the Short Utrecht Coping List. For well-being, we considered psychological well-being (depression, loneliness, distress) and physical health (fatigue, ADL, IADL). Logistic regression analyses were performed to study baseline coping as predictor for subsequent well-being while controlling for important baseline covariates. A total of 1245 patients were included in the analysis at baseline: 263 OCP, 590 ONC, and 392 MCP. Overall, active tackling was employed most often. With the exception of palliative reacting, OCP utilized each coping strategy less frequently than MCP. At 1-year follow-up, 833 patients (66.9%) were interviewed. Active coping strategies (active tackling and seeking social support) predicted subsequent well-being only in MCP. Avoidance coping strategies did not predict well-being in any of the patient groups. Palliative reacting predicted distress in OCP; depression and dependency for ADL in MCP. Coping strategies influence subsequent well-being in patients with cancer, but the impact is different in the age groups. Palliative reacting was the only coping strategy that predicted well-being (ie, distress) in OCP and is therefore, especially in this population, a target for coping skill interventions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fate of abstracts presented at the 2008 European Congress of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine.

PubMed

Allart, E; Beaucamp, F; Tiffreau, V; Thevenon, A

2015-08-01

The subsequent full-text publication of abstracts presented at a scientific congress reflects the latter's scientific quality. The aim of this paper was to evaluate the publication rate for abstracts presented at the 2008 European Congress of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine (ECPRM), characterize the publications and identify factors that were predictive of publication. It is a bibliography search. We used the PubMed database to search for subsequent publication of abstracts. We screened the abstracts' characteristics for features that were predictive of publication among abstracts features, such the status of the authors, the topic and the type of work. We performed univariate analyses and a logistic regression analysis. Of 779 abstracts presented at ECPRM 2008, 169 (21.2%) were subsequently published. The mean time to publication was 12±15.7 months and the mean impact factor of the publishing journals was 2.05±2.1. In a univariate analysis, university status (P<10-6), geographic origin (P=10-3), oral presentation (P<10-6), and original research (P<10-6) (and particularly multicentre trials [P<0.01] and randomized controlled trials [P=10-3]) were predictive of publication. In a logistic regression analysis, oral presentation (odds ratio [OR]=0.37) and university status (OR=0.36) were significant, independent predictors of publication. ECPRM 2008 publication rate and impact factor were relatively low, when compared with most other national and international conferences in this field. University status, the type of abstract and oral presentation were predictive of subsequent publication.

Effects of aging on functional connectivity of the amygdala for subsequent memory of negative pictures: a network analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging data.

PubMed

St Jacques, Peggy L; Dolcos, Florin; Cabeza, Roberto

2009-01-01

Aging is associated with preserved enhancement of emotional memory, as well as with age-related reductions in memory for negative stimuli, but the neural networks underlying such alterations are not clear. We used a subsequent-memory paradigm to identify brain activity predicting enhanced emotional memory in young and older adults. Activity in the amygdala predicted enhanced emotional memory, with subsequent-memory activity greater for negative stimuli than for neutral stimuli, across age groups, a finding consistent with an overall enhancement of emotional memory. However, older adults recruited greater activity in anterior regions and less activity in posterior regions in general for negative stimuli that were subsequently remembered. Functional connectivity of the amygdala with the rest of the brain was consistent with age-related reductions in memory for negative stimuli: Older adults showed decreased functional connectivity between the amygdala and the hippocampus, but increased functional connectivity between the amygdala and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices. These findings suggest that age-related differences in the enhancement of emotional memory might reflect decreased connectivity between the amygdala and typical subsequent-memory regions, as well as the engagement of regulatory processes that inhibit emotional responses.

Blood test could predict risk of heart attack and subsequent death.

PubMed

2017-01-18

A high-sensitivity blood test, known as a troponin test, could predict the risk of heart attack and death and patients' response to statins, say researchers from the Universities of Edinburgh and Glasgow.

Sex of the baby and future maternal risk of Type 2 diabetes in women who had gestational diabetes.

PubMed

Retnakaran, R; Shah, B R

2016-07-01

Women who develop gestational diabetes mellitus have a chronic defect in the secretion of insulin by the pancreatic β cells that underlies both their diagnostic hyperglycaemia in pregnancy and their elevated lifetime risk of developing Type 2 diabetes in the future. It has recently emerged that carrying a male fetus is associated with poorer maternal β-cell function and an increased risk of gestational diabetes, whereas the development of gestational diabetes when carrying a girl (as compared with a boy) predicts a comparatively higher risk of early progression to Type 2 diabetes before any subsequent pregnancy. In this context, we sought to determine the impact of fetal sex on the long-term risk of Type 2 diabetes in women with gestational diabetes. Using population-based administrative databases, we identified all women in Ontario, Canada, with a singleton live-birth first pregnancy complicated by gestational diabetes between April 2000 and March 2010 (n = 23 363). We compared the risk of subsequent Type 2 diabetes after pregnancy in those who carried a girl (n = 11 229) vs. those who carried a boy (n = 12 134). Over median 5.5 years follow-up, 5483 women (23.5%) were diagnosed with diabetes. Compared with those who carried a boy, women who had a girl had an elevated risk of subsequently developing diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.12). Among women with gestational diabetes, those who are carrying a girl have a slightly higher overall future risk of Type 2 diabetes. © 2015 Diabetes UK.

Gray correlation analysis and prediction models of living refuse generation in Shanghai city.

PubMed

Liu, Gousheng; Yu, Jianguo

2007-01-01

A better understanding of the factors that affect the generation of municipal living refuse (MLF) and the accurate prediction of its generation are crucial for municipal planning projects and city management. Up to now, most of the design efforts have been based on a rough prediction of MLF without any actual support. In this paper, based on published data of socioeconomic variables and MLF generation from 1990 to 2003 in the city of Shanghai, the main factors that affect MLF generation have been quantitatively studied using the method of gray correlation coefficient. Several gray models, such as GM(1,1), GIM(1), GPPM(1) and GLPM(1), have been studied, and predicted results are verified with subsequent residual test. Results show that, among the selected seven factors, consumption of gas, water and electricity are the largest three factors affecting MLF generation, and GLPM(1) is the optimized model to predict MLF generation. Through this model, the predicted MLF generation in 2010 in Shanghai will be 7.65 million tons. The methods and results developed in this paper can provide valuable information for MLF management and related municipal planning projects.

Can Pharmacotherapists be Too Supportive? A Process Study of Active Medication and Placebo in the Treatment of Depression

PubMed Central

Strunk, Daniel R.; Stewart, Michael O.; Hollon, Steven D.; DeRubeis, Robert J.; Fawcett, Jan; Amsterdam, Jay D.; Shelton, Richard C.

2013-01-01

Background This study examined therapist-patient interactions during clinical management with anti-depressant medication and pill-placebo. Methods The sample consisted of 80 patients on active medication and 40 patients in a pill-placebo condition from a randomized controlled trial for moderate to severe depression. Pharmacotherapist-patient interactions were characterized using observer ratings of the therapeutic alliance, pharmacotherapist-offered facilitative conditions, pharmacotherapist adherence to clinical management treatment guidelines, and pharmacotherapist competence. Patients, therapists, and raters were blind to treatment condition and outcome. Results Provision of greater nonspecific support (facilitative conditions) in early sessions predicted less subsequent improvement in depressive symptoms for patients receiving pill-placebo but not those receiving active medications, for which none of the process ratings predicted subsequent change. Early symptom change predicted later alliance and adherence in both conditions and therapist competence in the active condition. Conclusions Higher levels of support in early sessions predict poorer subsequent response among placebo patients. It remains unclear whether patients who are likely to be refractory elicit greater nonspecific support or whether the provision of such support has a deleterious effect in unmedicated patients. Differences in treatment process variables between conditions late in treatment are likely to be largely a consequence of symptom relief produced by active medications. PMID:19891806

An Experimental Study of Incremental Surface Loading of an Elastic Plate: Application to Volcano Tectonics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, K. K.; Zuber, M. T.

1995-01-01

Models of surface fractures due to volcanic loading an elastic plate are commonly used to constrain thickness of planetary lithospheres, but discrepancies exist in predictions of the style of initial failure and in the nature of subsequent fracture evolution. In this study, we perform an experiment to determine the mode of initial failure due to the incremental addition of a conical load to the surface of an elastic plate and compare the location of initial failure with that predicted by elastic theory. In all experiments, the mode of initial failure was tension cracking at the surface of the plate, with cracks oriented circumferential to the load. The cracks nucleated at a distance from load center that corresponds the maximum radial stress predicted by analytical solutions, so a tensile failure criterion is appropriate for predictions of initial failure. With continued loading of the plate, migration of tensional cracks was observed. In the same azimuthal direction as the initial crack, subsequent cracks formed at a smaller radial distance than the initial crack. When forming in a different azimuthal direction, the subsequent cracks formed at a distance greater than the radial distance of the initial crack. The observed fracture pattern may explain the distribution of extensional structures in annular bands around many large scale, circular volcanic features.

Excitation of Cy5 in self-assembled lipid bilayers using optical microresonators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, Lindsay M.; Li, Su; Dayani, Yasaman; Choi, Hong-Seok; Malmstadt, Noah; Armani, Andrea M.

2011-04-01

Due to their sensitivity and temporal response, optical microresonators are used extensively in the biosensor arena, particularly in the development of label-free diagnostics and measurement of protein kinetics. In the present letter, we investigate using microcavities to probe molecules within biomimetic membranes. Specifically, a method for self-assembling lipid bilayers on spherical microresonators is developed and the bilayer-nature is verified. Subsequently, the microcavity is used to excite a Cy5-conjugated lipid located within the bilayer while the optical performance of the microcavity is characterized. The emission wavelength of the dye and the optical behavior of the microcavity agree with theoretical predictions.

Scientific approaches to science policy.

PubMed

Berg, Jeremy M

2013-11-01

The development of robust science policy depends on use of the best available data, rigorous analysis, and inclusion of a wide range of input. While director of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS), I took advantage of available data and emerging tools to analyze training time distribution by new NIGMS grantees, the distribution of the number of publications as a function of total annual National Institutes of Health support per investigator, and the predictive value of peer-review scores on subsequent scientific productivity. Rigorous data analysis should be used to develop new reforms and initiatives that will help build a more sustainable American biomedical research enterprise.

Redox Abnormalities as a Vulnerability Phenotype for Autism and Related Alterations in CNS Development

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-10-14

number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. 1 . REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 10/14/2010 2 . REPORT TYPE Annual 3. DATES COVERED (From...predictive of subsequent development of autism . In Aim 2 , we will determine whether immune cells from autistic children are associated with altered...7 Appendices…………………………………………………………………………… 7 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 All Regression CONTROL to ta l G SH (µ m ol

Development of GP and GEP models to estimate an environmental issue induced by blasting operation.

PubMed

Faradonbeh, Roohollah Shirani; Hasanipanah, Mahdi; Amnieh, Hassan Bakhshandeh; Armaghani, Danial Jahed; Monjezi, Masoud

2018-05-21

Air overpressure (AOp) is one of the most adverse effects induced by blasting in the surface mines and civil projects. So, proper evaluation and estimation of the AOp is important for minimizing the environmental problems resulting from blasting. The main aim of this study is to estimate AOp produced by blasting operation in Miduk copper mine, Iran, developing two artificial intelligence models, i.e., genetic programming (GP) and gene expression programming (GEP). Then, the accuracy of the GP and GEP models has been compared to multiple linear regression (MLR) and three empirical models. For this purpose, 92 blasting events were investigated, and subsequently, the AOp values were carefully measured. Moreover, in each operation, the values of maximum charge per delay and distance from blast points, as two effective parameters on the AOp, were measured. After predicting by the predictive models, their performance prediction was checked in terms of variance account for (VAF), coefficient of determination (CoD), and root mean square error (RMSE). Finally, it was found that the GEP with VAF of 94.12%, CoD of 0.941, and RMSE of 0.06 is a more precise model than other predictive models for the AOp prediction in the Miduk copper mine, and it can be introduced as a new powerful tool for estimating the AOp resulting from blasting.

Deep phenotyping to predict live birth outcomes in in vitro fertilization

PubMed Central

Banerjee, Prajna; Choi, Bokyung; Shahine, Lora K.; Jun, Sunny H.; O’Leary, Kathleen; Lathi, Ruth B.; Westphal, Lynn M.; Wong, Wing H.; Yao, Mylene W. M.

2010-01-01

Nearly 75% of in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments do not result in live births and patients are largely guided by a generalized age-based prognostic stratification. We sought to provide personalized and validated prognosis by using available clinical and embryo data from prior, failed treatments to predict live birth probabilities in the subsequent treatment. We generated a boosted tree model, IVFBT, by training it with IVF outcomes data from 1,676 first cycles (C1s) from 2003–2006, followed by external validation with 634 cycles from 2007–2008, respectively. We tested whether this model could predict the probability of having a live birth in the subsequent treatment (C2). By using nondeterministic methods to identify prognostic factors and their relative nonredundant contribution, we generated a prediction model, IVFBT, that was superior to the age-based control by providing over 1,000-fold improvement to fit new data (p < 0.05), and increased discrimination by receiver–operative characteristic analysis (area-under-the-curve, 0.80 vs. 0.68 for C1, 0.68 vs. 0.58 for C2). IVFBT provided predictions that were more accurate for ∼83% of C1 and ∼60% of C2 cycles that were out of the range predicted by age. Over half of those patients were reclassified to have higher live birth probabilities. We showed that data from a prior cycle could be used effectively to provide personalized and validated live birth probabilities in a subsequent cycle. Our approach may be replicated and further validated in other IVF clinics. PMID:20643955

Conceptual Model for Basement and Surface Structure Relationships in an Oblique Collision, Sawtooth Range, MT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palu, J. M.; Burberry, C. M.

2014-12-01

The reactivation potential of pre-existing basement structures affects the geometry of subsequent deformation structures. A conceptual model depicting the results of these interactions can be applied to multiple fold-thrust systems and lead to valuable deformation predictions. These predictions include the potential for hydrocarbon traps or seismic risk in an actively deforming area. The Sawtooth Range, Montana, has been used as a study area. A model for the development of structures close to the Augusta Syncline in the Sawtooth Range is being developed using: 1) an ArcGIS map of the basement structures of the belt based on analysis of geophysical data indicating gravity anomalies and aeromagnetic lineations, seismic data indicating deformation structures, and well logs for establishing lithologies, previously collected by others and 2) an ArcGIS map of the surface deformation structures of the belt based on interpretation of remote sensing images and verification through the collection of surface field data indicating stress directions and age relationships, resulting in a conceptual model based on the understanding of the interaction of the two previous maps including statistical correlations of data and development of balanced cross-sections using Midland Valley's 2D/3D Move software. An analysis of the model will then indicate viable deformation paths where prominent basement structures influenced subsequently developed deformation structures and reactivated faults. Preliminary results indicate that the change in orientation of thrust faults observed in the Sawtooth Range, from a NNW-SSE orientation near the Gibson Reservoir to a WNW-ESE trend near Haystack Butte correlates with pre-existing deformation structures lying within the Great Falls Tectonic Zone. The Scapegoat-Bannatyne trend appears to be responsible for this orientation change and rather than being a single feature, may be composed of up to 4 NE-SW oriented basement strike-slip faults. This indicates that the pre-existing basement features have a profound effect on the geometry of the later deformation. This conceptual model can also be applied to other deformed belts to provide a prediction for the potential hydrocarbon trap locations of the belt as well as their seismic risk.

Autoantibodies as Biomarkers for the Prediction of Neuropsychiatric Events in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

PubMed Central

Hanly, J G; Urowitz, M B; Su, L; Bae, S-C; Gordon, C; Sanchez-Guerrero, J; Clarke, A; Bernatsky, S; Vasudevan, A; Isenberg, D; Rahman, A; Wallace, D J; Fortin, P R; Gladman, D; Dooley, M A; Bruce, I; Steinsson, K; Khamashta, M; Manzi, S; Ramsey-Goldman, R; Sturfelt, G; Nived, O; van Vollenhoven, R; Ramos-Casals, M; Aranow, C; Mackay, M; Kalunian, K; Alarcón, G S; Fessler, B J; Ruiz-Irastorza, G; Petri, M; Lim, S; Kamen, D; Peschken, C; Farewell, V; Thompson, K; Theriault, C; Merrill, J T

2015-01-01

Objective Neuropsychiatric (NP) events occur unpredictably in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and most biomarker associations remain to be prospectively validated. We examined a disease inception cohort of 1047 SLE patients to determine which autoantibodies at enrollment predicted subsequent NP events. Methods Patients with recent SLE diagnosis were assessed prospectively for up to 10 years for NP events using ACR case definitions. Decision rules of graded stringency determined whether NP events were attributable to SLE. Associations between the first NP event and baseline autoantibodies (lupus anticoagulant, anticardiolipin, anti-β2 glycoprotein-I, anti-ribosomal P and anti-NR2 glutamate receptor) were tested by Cox proportional hazards regression. Results Disease duration at enrollment was 5.4±4.2 months, followup was 3.6±2.6 years. Patients were 89.1% female with mean (±SD) age 35.2±13.7 years. 495/1047 (47.3%) developed ≥1 NP event (total 917 events). NP events attributed to SLE were 15.4% (model A) and 28.2% (model B). At enrollment 21.9% of patients had lupus anticoagulant, 13.4% anticardiolipin, 15.1% anti-β2 glycoprotein-I, 9.2% anti-ribosomal P and 13.7% anti-NR2 antibodies. Lupus anticoagulant at baseline was associated with subsequent intracranial thrombosis (total n=22) attributed to SLE (model B) (Hazard ratio, HR 2.54 (95% CI: 1.08–5.94). Anti-ribosomal P antibody was associated with subsequent psychosis (total n=14) attributed to SLE (model B) (HR: 3.92 (95% CI:1.23–12.5); p=0.02). Other autoantibodies did not predict NP events. Conclusion In a prospective study of 1047 recently diagnosed SLE patients, lupus anticoagulant and anti-ribosomal P antibodies are associated with an increased future risk for intracranial thrombosis and lupus psychosis respectively PMID:21893582

Predicting asthma exacerbations in children.

PubMed

Forno, Erick; Celedón, Juan C

2012-01-01

This review critically assesses recently published literature on predicting asthma exacerbations in children, while also providing general recommendations for future research in this field. Current evidence suggests that every effort should be made to provide optimal treatment to achieve adequate asthma control, as this will significantly reduce the risk of severe disease exacerbations. Children who have had at least one asthma exacerbation in the previous year are at highest risk for subsequent exacerbations, regardless of disease severity and/or control. Although several tools and biomarkers to predict asthma exacerbations have been recently developed, these approaches need further validation and/or have only had partial success in identifying children at risk. Although considerable progress has been made, much remains to be done. Future studies should clearly differentiate severe asthma exacerbations due to inadequate asthma control from those occurring in children whose asthma is well controlled, utilize standardized definitions of asthma exacerbations, and use a systematic approach to identify the best predictors after accounting for the multiple dimensions of the problem. Our ability to correctly predict the development of severe asthma exacerbations in an individual child should improve in parallel with increased knowledge and/or understanding of the complex interactions among genetic, environmental (e.g. viral infections) and lifestyle (e.g. adherence to treatment) factors underlying these events.

Cortical Thickness Predicts the First Onset of Major Depression in Adolescence

PubMed Central

Foland-Ross, Lara C.; Sacchet, Matthew D.; Prasad, Gautam; Gilbert, Brooke; Thompson, Paul M.; Gotlib, Ian H.

2015-01-01

Given the increasing prevalence of Major Depressive Disorder and recent advances in preventative treatments for this disorder, an important challenge in pediatric neuroimaging is the early identification of individuals at risk for depression. We examined whether machine learning can be used to predict the onset of depression at the individual level. Thirty-three never-disordered adolescents (10–15 years old) underwent structural MRI. Participants were followed for 5 years to monitor the emergence of clinically significant depressive symptoms. We used support vector machines (SVMs) to test whether baseline cortical thickness could reliably distinguish adolescents who develop depression from adolescents who remained free of any Axis I disorder. Accuracies from subsampled cross-validated classification were used to assess classifier performance. Baseline cortical thickness correctly predicted the future onset of depression with an overall accuracy of 70% (69% sensitivity, 70% specificity; p = 0.021). Examination of SVM feature weights indicated that the right medial orbitofrontal, right precentral, left anterior cingulate, and bilateral insular cortex contributed most strongly to this classification. These findings indicate that cortical gray matter structure can predict the subsequent onset of depression. An important direction for future research is to elucidate mechanisms by which these anomalies in gray matter structure increase risk for developing this disorder. PMID:26315399

Cortical thickness predicts the first onset of major depression in adolescence.

PubMed

Foland-Ross, Lara C; Sacchet, Matthew D; Prasad, Gautam; Gilbert, Brooke; Thompson, Paul M; Gotlib, Ian H

2015-11-01

Given the increasing prevalence of Major Depressive Disorder and recent advances in preventative treatments for this disorder, an important challenge in pediatric neuroimaging is the early identification of individuals at risk for depression. We examined whether machine learning can be used to predict the onset of depression at the individual level. Thirty-three never-disordered adolescents (10-15 years old) underwent structural MRI. Participants were followed for 5 years to monitor the emergence of clinically significant depressive symptoms. We used support vector machines (SVMs) to test whether baseline cortical thickness could reliably distinguish adolescents who develop depression from adolescents who remained free of any Axis I disorder. Accuracies from subsampled cross-validated classification were used to assess classifier performance. Baseline cortical thickness correctly predicted the future onset of depression with an overall accuracy of 70% (69% sensitivity, 70% specificity; p=0.021). Examination of SVM feature weights indicated that the right medial orbitofrontal, right precentral, left anterior cingulate, and bilateral insular cortex contributed most strongly to this classification. These findings indicate that cortical gray matter structure can predict the subsequent onset of depression. An important direction for future research is to elucidate mechanisms by which these anomalies in gray matter structure increase risk for developing this disorder. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computational predictive models for P-glycoprotein inhibition of in-house chalcone derivatives and drug-bank compounds.

PubMed

Ngo, Trieu-Du; Tran, Thanh-Dao; Le, Minh-Tri; Thai, Khac-Minh

2016-11-01

The human P-glycoprotein (P-gp) efflux pump is of great interest for medicinal chemists because of its important role in multidrug resistance (MDR). Because of the high polyspecificity as well as the unavailability of high-resolution X-ray crystal structures of this transmembrane protein, ligand-based, and structure-based approaches which were machine learning, homology modeling, and molecular docking were combined for this study. In ligand-based approach, individual two-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationship models were developed using different machine learning algorithms and subsequently combined into the Ensemble model which showed good performance on both the diverse training set and the validation sets. The applicability domain and the prediction quality of the developed models were also judged using the state-of-the-art methods and tools. In our structure-based approach, the P-gp structure and its binding region were predicted for a docking study to determine possible interactions between the ligands and the receptor. Based on these in silico tools, hit compounds for reversing MDR were discovered from the in-house and DrugBank databases through virtual screening using prediction models and molecular docking in an attempt to restore cancer cell sensitivity to cytotoxic drugs.

Development of a wound healing index for patients with chronic wounds.

PubMed

Horn, Susan D; Fife, Caroline E; Smout, Randall J; Barrett, Ryan S; Thomson, Brett

2013-01-01

Randomized controlled trials in wound care generalize poorly because they exclude patients with significant comorbid conditions. Research using real-world wound care patients is hindered by lack of validated methods to stratify patients according to severity of underlying illnesses. We developed a comprehensive stratification system for patients with wounds that predicts healing likelihood. Complete medical record data on 50,967 wounds from the United States Wound Registry were assigned a clear outcome (healed, amputated, etc.). Factors known to be associated with healing were evaluated using logistic regression models. Significant variables (p < 0.05) were determined and subsequently tested on a holdout sample of data. A different model predicted healing for each wound type. Some variables predicted significantly in nearly all models: wound size, wound age, number of wounds, evidence of bioburden, tissue type exposed (Wagner grade or stage), being nonambulatory, and requiring hospitalization during the course of care. Variables significant in some models included renal failure, renal transplant, malnutrition, autoimmune disease, and cardiovascular disease. All models validated well when applied to the holdout sample. The "Wound Healing Index" can validly predict likelihood of wound healing among real-world patients and can facilitate comparative effectiveness research to identify patients needing advanced therapeutics. © 2013 by the Wound Healing Society.

The Reciprocal Relationship Between Sexual Victimization and Sexual Assertiveness

PubMed Central

Livingston, Jennifer A.; Testa, Maria; VanZile-Tamsen, Carol

2007-01-01

Low sexual assertiveness has been proposed as a possible mechanism through which sexual revictimization occurs, yet evidence for this has been mixed. In this study, prospective path analysis was used to examine the relationship between sexual refusal assertiveness and sexual victimization over time among a community sample of women. Results provide support for a reciprocal relationship, with historical victimization predicting low sexual assertiveness and low sexual assertiveness predicting subsequent victimization. The effect of recent sexual victimization on subsequent sexual assertiveness also was replicated prospectively. These findings suggest that strengthening sexual assertiveness may help reduce vulnerability to future victimization. PMID:17322273

The reciprocal relationship between sexual victimization and sexual assertiveness.

PubMed

Livingston, Jennifer A; Testa, Maria; VanZile-Tamsen, Carol

2007-03-01

Low sexual assertiveness has been proposed as a possible mechanism through which sexual revictimization occurs, yet evidence for this has been mixed. In this study, prospective path analysis was used to examine the relationship between sexual refusal assertiveness and sexual victimization over time among a community sample of women. Results provide support for a reciprocal relationship, with historical victimization predicting low sexual assertiveness and low sexual assertiveness predicting subsequent victimization. The effect of recent sexual victimization on subsequent sexual assertiveness also was replicated prospectively. These findings suggest that strengthening sexual assertiveness may help reduce vulnerability to future victimization.

Rapid Method Development in Hydrophilic Interaction Liquid Chromatography for Pharmaceutical Analysis Using a Combination of Quantitative Structure-Retention Relationships and Design of Experiments.

PubMed

Taraji, Maryam; Haddad, Paul R; Amos, Ruth I J; Talebi, Mohammad; Szucs, Roman; Dolan, John W; Pohl, Chris A

2017-02-07

A design-of-experiment (DoE) model was developed, able to describe the retention times of a mixture of pharmaceutical compounds in hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (HILIC) under all possible combinations of acetonitrile content, salt concentration, and mobile-phase pH with R 2 > 0.95. Further, a quantitative structure-retention relationship (QSRR) model was developed to predict retention times for new analytes, based only on their chemical structures, with a root-mean-square error of prediction (RMSEP) as low as 0.81%. A compound classification based on the concept of similarity was applied prior to QSRR modeling. Finally, we utilized a combined QSRR-DoE approach to propose an optimal design space in a quality-by-design (QbD) workflow to facilitate the HILIC method development. The mathematical QSRR-DoE model was shown to be highly predictive when applied to an independent test set of unseen compounds in unseen conditions with a RMSEP value of 5.83%. The QSRR-DoE computed retention time of pharmaceutical test analytes and subsequently calculated separation selectivity was used to optimize the chromatographic conditions for efficient separation of targets. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the risk of uncertainty in the model's prediction, and to define the design space where the desired quality criterion was met. Experimental realization of peak selectivity between targets under the selected optimal working conditions confirmed the theoretical predictions. These results demonstrate how discovery of optimal conditions for the separation of new analytes can be accelerated by the use of appropriate theoretical tools.

Clinical predictors of conversion to bipolar disorder in a prospective longitudinal familial high-risk sample: focus on depressive features.

PubMed

Frankland, Andrew; Roberts, Gloria; Holmes-Preston, Ellen; Perich, Tania; Levy, Florence; Lenroot, Rhoshel; Hadzi-Pavlovic, Dusan; Breakspear, Michael; Mitchell, Philip B

2017-11-07

Identifying clinical features that predict conversion to bipolar disorder (BD) in those at high familial risk (HR) would assist in identifying a more focused population for early intervention. In total 287 participants aged 12-30 (163 HR with a first-degree relative with BD and 124 controls (CONs)) were followed annually for a median of 5 years. We used the baseline presence of DSM-IV depressive, anxiety, behavioural and substance use disorders, as well as a constellation of specific depressive symptoms (as identified by the Probabilistic Approach to Bipolar Depression) to predict the subsequent development of hypo/manic episodes. At baseline, HR participants were significantly more likely to report ⩾4 Probabilistic features (40.4%) when depressed than CONs (6.7%; p < .05). Nineteen HR subjects later developed either threshold (n = 8; 4.9%) or subthreshold (n = 11; 6.7%) hypo/mania. The presence of ⩾4 Probabilistic features was associated with a seven-fold increase in the risk of 'conversion' to threshold BD (hazard ratio = 6.9, p < .05) above and beyond the fourteen-fold increase in risk related to major depressive episodes (MDEs) per se (hazard ratio = 13.9, p < .05). Individual depressive features predicting conversion were psychomotor retardation and ⩾5 MDEs. Behavioural disorders only predicted conversion to subthreshold BD (hazard ratio = 5.23, p < .01), while anxiety and substance disorders did not predict either threshold or subthreshold hypo/mania. This study suggests that specific depressive characteristics substantially increase the risk of young people at familial risk of BD going on to develop future hypo/manic episodes and may identify a more targeted HR population for the development of early intervention programs.

Risk Matrix for Prediction of Disease Progression in a Referral Cohort of Patients with Crohn's Disease.

PubMed

Lakatos, Peter L; Sipeki, Nora; Kovacs, Gyorgy; Palyu, Eszter; Norman, Gary L; Shums, Zakera; Golovics, Petra A; Lovasz, Barbara D; Antal-Szalmas, Peter; Papp, Maria

2015-10-01

Early identification of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) at risk of subsequent complications is essential for adapting the treatment strategy. We aimed to develop a prediction model including clinical and serological markers for assessing the probability of developing advanced disease in a prospective referral CD cohort. Two hundred and seventy-one consecutive CD patients (42.4% males, median follow-up 108 months) were included and followed up prospectively. Anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies (ASCA IgA/IgG) were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The final analysis was limited to patients with inflammatory disease behaviour at diagnosis. The final definition of advanced disease outcome was having intestinal resection or disease behaviour progression. Antibody (ASCA IgA and/or IgG) status, disease location and need for early azathioprine were included in a 3-, 5- and 7-year prediction matrix. The probability of advanced disease after 5 years varied from 6.2 to 55% depending on the combination of predictors. Similar findings were obtained in Kaplan-Meier analysis; the combination of ASCA, location and early use of azathioprine was associated with the probability of developing advanced disease (p < 0.001, log rank test). Our prediction models identified substantial differences in the probability of developing advanced disease in the early disease course of CD. Markers identified in this referral cohort were different from those previously published in a population-based cohort, suggesting that different prediction models should be used in the referral setting. Copyright © 2015 European Crohn’s and Colitis Organisation (ECCO). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Development and validation of a prognostic score to predict mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

PubMed

Jalan, Rajiv; Saliba, Faouzi; Pavesi, Marco; Amoros, Alex; Moreau, Richard; Ginès, Pere; Levesque, Eric; Durand, Francois; Angeli, Paolo; Caraceni, Paolo; Hopf, Corinna; Alessandria, Carlo; Rodriguez, Ezequiel; Solis-Muñoz, Pablo; Laleman, Wim; Trebicka, Jonel; Zeuzem, Stefan; Gustot, Thierry; Mookerjee, Rajeshwar; Elkrief, Laure; Soriano, German; Cordoba, Joan; Morando, Filippo; Gerbes, Alexander; Agarwal, Banwari; Samuel, Didier; Bernardi, Mauro; Arroyo, Vicente

2014-11-01

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a frequent syndrome (30% prevalence), characterized by acute decompensation of cirrhosis, organ failure(s) and high short-term mortality. This study develops and validates a specific prognostic score for ACLF patients. Data from 1349 patients included in the CANONIC study were used. First, a simplified organ function scoring system (CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score, CLIF-C OFs) was developed to diagnose ACLF using data from all patients. Subsequently, in 275 patients with ACLF, CLIF-C OFs and two other independent predictors of mortality (age and white blood cell count) were combined to develop a specific prognostic score for ACLF (CLIF Consortium ACLF score [CLIF-C ACLFs]). A concordance index (C-index) was used to compare the discrimination abilities of CLIF-C ACLF, MELD, MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), and Child-Pugh (CPs) scores. The CLIF-C ACLFs was validated in an external cohort and assessed for sequential use. The CLIF-C ACLFs showed a significantly higher predictive accuracy than MELDs, MELD-Nas, and CPs, reducing (19-28%) the corresponding prediction error rates at all main time points after ACLF diagnosis (28, 90, 180, and 365 days) in both the CANONIC and the external validation cohort. CLIF-C ACLFs computed at 48 h, 3-7 days, and 8-15 days after ACLF diagnosis predicted the 28-day mortality significantly better than at diagnosis. The CLIF-C ACLFs at ACLF diagnosis is superior to the MELDs and MELD-Nas in predicting mortality. The CLIF-C ACLFs is a clinically relevant, validated scoring system that can be used sequentially to stratify the risk of mortality in ACLF patients. Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

QSAR models for prediction of chromatographic behavior of homologous Fab variants.

PubMed

Robinson, Julie R; Karkov, Hanne S; Woo, James A; Krogh, Berit O; Cramer, Steven M

2017-06-01

While quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) models have been employed successfully for the prediction of small model protein chromatographic behavior, there have been few reports to date on the use of this methodology for larger, more complex proteins. Recently our group generated focused libraries of antibody Fab fragment variants with different combinations of surface hydrophobicities and electrostatic potentials, and demonstrated that the unique selectivities of multimodal resins can be exploited to separate these Fab variants. In this work, results from linear salt gradient experiments with these Fabs were employed to develop QSAR models for six chromatographic systems, including multimodal (Capto MMC, Nuvia cPrime, and two novel ligand prototypes), hydrophobic interaction chromatography (HIC; Capto Phenyl), and cation exchange (CEX; CM Sepharose FF) resins. The models utilized newly developed "local descriptors" to quantify changes around point mutations in the Fab libraries as well as novel cluster descriptors recently introduced by our group. Subsequent rounds of feature selection and linearized machine learning algorithms were used to generate robust, well-validated models with high training set correlations (R 2  > 0.70) that were well suited for predicting elution salt concentrations in the various systems. The developed models then were used to predict the retention of a deamidated Fab and isotype variants, with varying success. The results represent the first successful utilization of QSAR for the prediction of chromatographic behavior of complex proteins such as Fab fragments in multimodal chromatographic systems. The framework presented here can be employed to facilitate process development for the purification of biological products from product-related impurities by in silico screening of resin alternatives. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2017;114: 1231-1240. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Subsequent donation requests among 2472 unrelated hematopoietic progenitor cell donors are associated with bone marrow harvest

PubMed Central

Lown, Robert N.; Tulpule, Sameer; Russell, Nigel H.; Craddock, Charles F.; Roest, Rochelle; Madrigal, J. Alejandro; Shaw, Bronwen E.

2013-01-01

Approximately 1 in 20 unrelated donors are asked to make a second donation of hematopoietic progenitor cells, the majority for the same patient. Anthony Nolan undertook a study of subsequent hematopoietic progenitor cell donations made by its donors from 2005 to 2011, with the aims of predicting those donors more likely to be called for a second donation, assessing rates of serious adverse reactions and examining harvest yields. This was not a study of factors predictive of second allografts. During the study period 2591 donations were made, of which 120 (4.6%) were subsequent donations. The median time between donations was 179 days (range, 21–4016). Indications for a second allogeneic transplant included primary graft failure (11.7%), secondary graft failure (53.2%), relapse (30.6%) and others (1.8%). On multivariate analysis, bone marrow harvest at first donation was associated with subsequent donation requests (odds ratio 2.00, P=0.001). The rate of serious adverse reactions in donors making a subsequent donation appeared greater than the rate in those making a first donation (relative risk=3.29, P=0.005). Harvest yields per kilogram recipient body weight were equivalent between donations, although females appeared to have a lower yield at the subsequent donation. Knowledge of these factors will help unrelated donor registries to counsel their donors. PMID:23812935

Geomechanical Analysis of Underground Coal Gasification Reactor Cool Down for Subsequent CO2 Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhosis, Vasilis; Yang, Dongmin; Kempka, Thomas; Sheng, Yong

2013-04-01

Underground coal gasification (UCG) is an efficient method for the conversion of conventionally unmineable coal resources into energy and feedstock. If the UCG process is combined with the subsequent storage of process CO2 in the former UCG reactors, a near-zero carbon emission energy source can be realised. This study aims to present the development of a computational model to simulate the cooling process of UCG reactors in abandonment to decrease the initial high temperature of more than 400 °C to a level where extensive CO2 volume expansion due to temperature changes can be significantly reduced during the time of CO2 injection. Furthermore, we predict the cool down temperature conditions with and without water flushing. A state of the art coupled thermal-mechanical model was developed using the finite element software ABAQUS to predict the cavity growth and the resulting surface subsidence. In addition, the multi-physics computational software COMSOL was employed to simulate the cavity cool down process which is of uttermost relevance for CO2 storage in the former UCG reactors. For that purpose, we simulated fluid flow, thermal conduction as well as thermal convection processes between fluid (water and CO2) and solid represented by coal and surrounding rocks. Material properties for rocks and coal were obtained from extant literature sources and geomechanical testings which were carried out on samples derived from a prospective demonstration site in Bulgaria. The analysis of results showed that the numerical models developed allowed for the determination of the UCG reactor growth, roof spalling, surface subsidence and heat propagation during the UCG process and the subsequent CO2 storage. It is anticipated that the results of this study can support optimisation of the preparation procedure for CO2 storage in former UCG reactors. The proposed scheme was discussed so far, but not validated by a coupled numerical analysis and if proved to be applicable it could provide a significant optimisation of the UCG process by means of CO2 storage efficiency. The proposed coupled UCG-CCS scheme allows for meeting EU targets for greenhouse gas emissions and increases the coal yield otherwise impossible to exploit.

An Elevated Maternal Plasma Soluble fms-Like Tyrosine Kinase-1 to Placental Growth Factor Ratio at Midtrimester Is a Useful Predictor for Preeclampsia.

PubMed

Hassan, Mahmoud Fathy; Rund, Nancy Mohamed Ali; Salama, Ahmed Husseiny

2013-01-01

Background. To assess the ability of mid-trimester sFlt-1/PlGF ratio for prediction of preeclampsia in two different Arabic populations. Methods. This study measured levels of sFlt-1, PlGF, and sFlt-1/PlGF ratio at midtrimester in 83 patients who developed preeclampsia with contemporary 250 matched controls. Results. Women subsequently developed preeclampsia had significantly lower PlGF levels and higher sFlt-1 and sFlt-1/PlGF ratio levels than women with normal pregnancies (P < 0.0001 for all). Women who with preterm preeclampsia had significantly higher sFlt-1 and sFlt-1/PlGF ratio than term preeclamptic women (P = 0.01, 0.003, resp.). A cutoff value of 3198 pg/mL for sFlt-1 was able to predict preeclampsia with sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 88%, 83.6%, and 84.7%, respectively, with odds ratio (OR) 37.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 17.7-78.1]. PIGF at cutoff value of 138 pg/mL was able to predict preeclampsia with sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 85.5%, 77.2%, and 79.3%, respectively, with OR 20 [95% CI, 10.2-39.5]. The sFlt-1/PIGF ratio at cutoff value of 24.5 was able to predict preeclampsia with sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 91.6%, 86.4%, and 87.7%, respectively with OR 67 [95% CI, 29.3-162.1]. Conclusion. Midtrimester sFlt-1/PlGF ratio displayed the highest sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and OR for prediction of preeclampsia, demonstrating that it may stipulate more effective prediction of preeclampsia development than individual factor assay.

Management of benign papilloma without atypia diagnosed at ultrasound-guided core needle biopsy: Scoring system for predicting malignancy.

PubMed

Ahn, Soo Kyung; Han, Wonshik; Moon, Hyeong-Gon; Kim, Min Kyoon; Noh, Dong-Young; Jung, Bong-Wha; Kim, Sung-Won; Ko, Eunyoung

2018-01-01

The management of benign intraductal papilloma diagnosed on core needle biopsy (CNB) remains unclear. This study was designed to evaluate factors predicting malignancy in patients diagnosed with benign papilloma without atypia at ultrasound-guided CNB and to develop a scoring system predicting malignancy based on clinical, radiological and pathological factors on further excisional biopsy. The study enrolled patients diagnosed with benign papillomas (including benign and atypical papillary lesions) at CNB. Multivariate analysis was used to identify relevant clinical, radiological and pathological factors that may predict malignancy. A total of 520 CNBs were diagnosed with benign or atypical papilloma. Of these, 452 were benign papilloma without atypia. Of the 250 lesions subsequently excised surgically from 234 women, 17 (6.8%) were diagnosed with malignancy. Multivariate analysis revealed that bloody nipple discharge, size on imaging ≥15 mm, BI-RADS≥4b, peripheral location and palpability were independent predictors of malignancy. A scoring system was developed based on logistic regression models and beta coefficients for each variable. The area under the ROC curve was 0.947 (95% CI: 0.913-0.981, p < 0.001) and a negative predictive value was 100%. In a validation set of 62 patients, an area under the ROC curve was 0.926 (95% CI: 0.857-0.995, p < 0.001). A scoring system predicting malignancy in patients diagnosed by CNB with benign papilloma without atypia was developed. This system was able to identify a subset of patients with lesions likely to be benign, indicating that imaging follow-up rather than surgical excision may be appropriate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd, BASO ~ The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights reserved.

Predicting the Occurrence of Hypotension in Stable Patients With Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Point-of-Care Lactate Testing.

PubMed

Ko, Byuk Sung; Kim, Won Young; Ryoo, Seung Mok; Ahn, Shin; Sohn, Chang Hwan; Seo, Dong Woo; Lee, Yoon-Seon; Lim, Kyoung Soo; Jung, Hwoon-Yong

2015-11-01

It is difficult to assess risk in normotensive patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the initial lactate value can predict the in-hospital occurrence of hypotension in stable patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Retrospective, observational, single-center study. Emergency department of a tertiary-care, university-affiliated hospital during a 5-year period. Medical records of 3,489 patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding who were normotensive at presentation to the emergency department. We analyzed the ability of point-of-care testing of lactate at emergency department admission to predict hypotension development (defined as systolic blood pressure <90 mm Hg) within 24 hours after emergency department admission. None. Of the 1,003 patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding, 157 patients experienced hypotension within 24 hours. Lactate was independently associated with hypotension development (odds ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4-1.7), and the risk of hypotension significantly increased as the lactate increased from 2.5-4.9 mmol/L (odds ratio, 2.2) to 5.0-7.4 mmol/L (odds ratio, 4.0) and to greater than or equal to 7.5 mmol/L (odds ratio, 39.2) (p<0.001). Lactate elevation (≥2.5 mmol/L) was associated with 90% specificity and an 84% negative predictive value for hypotension development. When the lactate levels were greater than 5.0 mmol/L, the specificity and negative predictive value increased to 98% and 87%, respectively. Point-of-care testing of lactate can predict in-hospital occurrence of hypotension in stable patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. However, subsequently, prospective validate research will be required to clarify this.

Ratio of urine and blood urea nitrogen concentration predicts the response of tolvaptan in congestive heart failure.

PubMed

Shimizu, Keisuke; Doi, Kent; Imamura, Teruhiko; Noiri, Eisei; Yahagi, Naoki; Nangaku, Masaomi; Kinugawa, Koichiro

2015-06-01

This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the ratio of urine and blood urea nitrogen concentration (UUN/BUN) as a new predictive factor for the response of an arginine vasopressin receptor 2 antagonist tolvaptan (TLV) in decompensated heart failure patients. This study enrolled 70 decompensated heart failure patients who were administered TLV at University of Tokyo Hospital. We collected the data of clinical parameters including UUN/BUN before administering TLV. Two different outcomes were defined as follows: having over 300 mL increase in urine volume on the first day (immediate urine output response) and having any decrease in body weight within one week after starting TLV treatment (subsequent clinical response). Among the 70 enrolled patients, 37 patients (52.9%) showed immediate urine output response; 51 patients (72.9%) showed a subsequent clinical response of body weight decrease. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis showed good prediction by UUN/BUN for the immediate response (AUC-ROC 0.86 [0.75-0.93]) and a significantly better prediction by UUN/BUN for the subsequent clinical response compared with urinary osmolality (AUC-ROC 0.78 [0.63-0.88] vs. 0.68 [0.52-0.80], P < 0.05). We demonstrated that a clinical parameter of UUN/BUN can predict the response of TLV even when measured before TLV administration. UUN/BUN might enable identification of good responders for this new drug. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

Predictors of Medicare costs in elderly beneficiaries with breast, colorectal, lung, or prostate cancer.

PubMed

Penberthy, L; Retchin, S M; McDonald, M K; McClish, D K; Desch, C E; Riley, G F; Smith, T J; Hillner, B E; Newschaffer, C J

1999-07-01

Determining the apportionment of costs of cancer care and identifying factors that predict costs are important for planning ethical resource allocation for cancer care, especially in markets where managed care has grown. This study linked tumor registry data with Medicare administrative claims to determine the costs of care for breast, colorectal, lung and prostate cancers during the initial year subsequent to diagnosis, and to develop models to identify factors predicting costs. Patients with a diagnosis of breast (n = 1,952), colorectal (n = 2,563), lung (n = 3,331) or prostate cancer (n = 3,179) diagnosed from 1985 through 1988. The average costs during the initial treatment period were $12,141 (s.d. = $10,434) for breast cancer, $24,910 (s.d. = $14,870) for colorectal cancer, $21,351 (s.d. = $14,813) for lung cancer, and $14,361 (s.d. = $11,216) for prostate cancer. Using least squares regression analysis, factors significantly associated with cost included comorbidity, hospital length of stay, type of therapy, and ZIP level income for all four cancer sites. Access to health care resources was variably associated with costs of care. Total R2 ranged from 38% (prostate) to 49% (breast). The prediction error for the regression models ranged from < 1% to 4%, by cancer site. Linking administrative claims with state tumor registry data can accurately predict costs of cancer care during the first year subsequent to diagnosis for cancer patients. Regression models using both data sources may be useful to health plans and providers and in determining appropriate prospective reimbursement for cancer, particularly with increasing HMO penetration and decreased ability to capture complete and accurate utilization and cost data on this population.

Predictive QSAR modeling workflow, model applicability domains, and virtual screening.

PubMed

Tropsha, Alexander; Golbraikh, Alexander

2007-01-01

Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) modeling has been traditionally applied as an evaluative approach, i.e., with the focus on developing retrospective and explanatory models of existing data. Model extrapolation was considered if only in hypothetical sense in terms of potential modifications of known biologically active chemicals that could improve compounds' activity. This critical review re-examines the strategy and the output of the modern QSAR modeling approaches. We provide examples and arguments suggesting that current methodologies may afford robust and validated models capable of accurate prediction of compound properties for molecules not included in the training sets. We discuss a data-analytical modeling workflow developed in our laboratory that incorporates modules for combinatorial QSAR model development (i.e., using all possible binary combinations of available descriptor sets and statistical data modeling techniques), rigorous model validation, and virtual screening of available chemical databases to identify novel biologically active compounds. Our approach places particular emphasis on model validation as well as the need to define model applicability domains in the chemistry space. We present examples of studies where the application of rigorously validated QSAR models to virtual screening identified computational hits that were confirmed by subsequent experimental investigations. The emerging focus of QSAR modeling on target property forecasting brings it forward as predictive, as opposed to evaluative, modeling approach.

Multi-scale simulation of radiation damage accumulation and subsequent hardening in neutron-irradiated α-Fe

DOE PAGES

Dunn, Aaron; Dingreville, Remi; Capolungo, Laurent

2015-11-27

A hierarchical methodology is introduced to predict the effects of radiation damage and irradiation conditions on the yield stress and internal stress heterogeneity developments in polycrystalline α-Fe. Simulations of defect accumulation under displacement cascade damage conditions are performed using spatially resolved stochastic cluster dynamics. The resulting void and dislocation loop concentrations and average sizes are then input into a crystal plasticity formulation that accounts for the change in critical resolved shear stress due to the presence of radiation induced defects. The simulated polycrystalline tensile tests show a good match to experimental hardening data over a wide range of irradiation doses.more » With this capability, stress heterogeneity development and the effect of dose rate on hardening is investigated. The model predicts increased hardening at higher dose rates for low total doses. By contrast, at doses above 10 –2 dpa when cascade overlap becomes significant, the model does not predict significantly different hardening for different dose rates. In conclusion, the development of such a model enables simulation of radiation damage accumulation and associated hardening without relying on experimental data as an input under a wide range of irradiation conditions such as dose, dose rate, and temperature.« less

Predicting the Initial Lapse Using a Mobile Health Application after Alcohol Detoxification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chih, Ming-Yuan

2013-01-01

The prediction and prevention of the initial lapse--which is defined as the first lapse after a period of abstinence--is important because the initial lapse often leads to subsequent lapses (within the same lapse episode) or relapse. The prediction of the initial lapse may allow preemptive intervention to be possible. This dissertation reports on…

Interest Level in 2-Year-Olds with Autism Spectrum Disorder Predicts Rate of Verbal, Nonverbal, and Adaptive Skill Acquisition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klintwall, Lars; Macari, Suzanne; Eikeseth, Svein; Chawarska, Katarzyna

2015-01-01

Recent studies have suggested that skill acquisition rates for children with autism spectrum disorders receiving early interventions can be predicted by child motivation. We examined whether level of interest during an Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule assessment at 2?years predicts subsequent rates of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill…

Prediction of monthly-seasonal precipitation using coupled SVD patterns between soil moisture and subsequent precipitation

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu

2003-01-01

It was suggested in a recent statistical correlation analysis that predictability of monthly-seasonal precipitation could be improved by using coupled singular value decomposition (SVD) pattems between soil moisture and precipitation instead of their values at individual locations. This study provides predictive evidence for this suggestion by comparing skills of two...

Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model

Treesearch

D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

2011-01-01

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltration, runoff, ET) component, which subsequently impacts the rest of the...

Utility of the MMPI Pain Assessment Index in Predicting Outcome After Lumbar Surgery.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, Judith; And Others

1986-01-01

Examined the ability of the Pain Assesment Index, determined from presurgery Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory scores, to predict outcome subsequent to lumbar laminectomy and discectomy. The PAI was found to have good ability to identify patients who were doing well after surgery, but low power in predicting which patients would have…

Using Performance Data Gathered at Several Stages of Achievement in Predicting Subsequent Performance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Owen, Steven V.; Feldhusen, John F.

This study compares the effectiveness of three models of multivariate prediction for academic success in identifying the criterion variance of achievement in nursing education. The first model involves the use of an optimum set of predictors and one equation derived from a regression analysis on first semester grade average in predicting the…

Is the spatial distribution of brain lesions associated with closed-head injury predictive of subsequent development of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder? Analysis with brain-image database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herskovits, E. H.; Megalooikonomou, V.; Davatzikos, C.; Chen, A.; Bryan, R. N.; Gerring, J. P.

1999-01-01

PURPOSE: To determine whether there is an association between the spatial distribution of lesions detected at magnetic resonance (MR) imaging of the brain in children after closed-head injury and the development of secondary attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data obtained from 76 children without prior history of ADHD were analyzed. MR images were obtained 3 months after closed-head injury. After manual delineation of lesions, images were registered to the Talairach coordinate system. For each subject, registered images and secondary ADHD status were integrated into a brain-image database, which contains depiction (visualization) and statistical analysis software. Using this database, we assessed visually the spatial distributions of lesions and performed statistical analysis of image and clinical variables. RESULTS: Of the 76 children, 15 developed secondary ADHD. Depiction of the data suggested that children who developed secondary ADHD had more lesions in the right putamen than children who did not develop secondary ADHD; this impression was confirmed statistically. After Bonferroni correction, we could not demonstrate significant differences between secondary ADHD status and lesion burdens for the right caudate nucleus or the right globus pallidus. CONCLUSION: Closed-head injury-induced lesions in the right putamen in children are associated with subsequent development of secondary ADHD. Depiction software is useful in guiding statistical analysis of image data.

Flood defence in the Blackwater Estuary, Essex, UK: the impact of sedimentological and geochemical changes on salt marsh development in the Tollesbury Managed Realignment site.

PubMed

Chang, Y H; Scrimshaw, M D; Macleod, C L; Lester, J N

2001-06-01

Recent changes in the UK's coastal defence strategy have resulted in the introduction of Managed Realignment (MR), a technique which attempts to establish salt marshes on low-lying coastal farmland. This work investigates the impact of MR, in particular on the interactions between sediment movement, changes in heavy metal concentrations and salt marsh development. Pre- and post-inundation samples were collected and analysed between 1995 and 1997. Sediment transport patterns (1996) demonstrated that sediment particles were distributed by tides around the site, resulting in a change in the spatial distribution of the metals which was related to the sediment particle size distribution. Despite the presence of some metal contaminants found within the MR site, vegetated salt marsh has developed since 1997. However, heavy metals such as Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn exhibited relative depletion in the sediment developing with salt marsh in 1997, which is in agreement with data indicating that concentrations of metals within sediments is related to frequency of tidal inundation. During initial development of the site, sediment transport was the main factor controlling metal distribution, however, subsequently the frequency of tidal inundation became the most significant factor. Further work may allow for prediction of how future MR sites will develop with respect to redistribution of sediments and subsequent transport of contaminants in the dissolved phase.

Prediction of successful memory encoding based on single-trial rhinal and hippocampal phase information.

PubMed

Höhne, Marlene; Jahanbekam, Amirhossein; Bauckhage, Christian; Axmacher, Nikolai; Fell, Juergen

2016-10-01

Mediotemporal EEG characteristics are closely related to long-term memory formation. It has been reported that rhinal and hippocampal EEG measures reflecting the stability of phases across trials are better suited to distinguish subsequently remembered from forgotten trials than event-related potentials or amplitude-based measures. Theoretical models suggest that the phase of EEG oscillations reflects neural excitability and influences cellular plasticity. However, while previous studies have shown that the stability of phase values across trials is indeed a relevant predictor of subsequent memory performance, the effect of absolute single-trial phase values has been little explored. Here, we reanalyzed intracranial EEG recordings from the mediotemporal lobe of 27 epilepsy patients performing a continuous word recognition paradigm. Two-class classification using a support vector machine was performed to predict subsequently remembered vs. forgotten trials based on individually selected frequencies and time points. We demonstrate that it is possible to successfully predict single-trial memory formation in the majority of patients (23 out of 27) based on only three single-trial phase values given by a rhinal phase, a hippocampal phase, and a rhinal-hippocampal phase difference. Overall classification accuracy across all subjects was 69.2% choosing frequencies from the range between 0.5 and 50Hz and time points from the interval between -0.5s and 2s. For 19 patients, above chance prediction of subsequent memory was possible even when choosing only time points from the prestimulus interval (overall accuracy: 65.2%). Furthermore, prediction accuracies based on single-trial phase surpassed those based on single-trial power. Our results confirm the functional relevance of mediotemporal EEG phase for long-term memory operations and suggest that phase information may be utilized for memory enhancement applications based on deep brain stimulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of worsening renal function during the treatment of decompensated heart failure on changes in renal function during subsequent hospitalization.

PubMed

Testani, Jeffrey M; Cappola, Thomas P; McCauley, Brian D; Chen, Jennifer; Shen, James; Shannon, Richard P; Kimmel, Stephen E

2011-05-01

Worsening renal function (WRF) commonly complicates the treatment of acute decompensated heart failure. Despite considerable investigation in this area, it remains unclear to what degree WRF is a reflection of treatment- versus patient-related factors. We hypothesized that if WRF is significantly influenced by factors intrinsic to the patient, then WRF during an index hospitalization should predict WRF during subsequent hospitalization. Consecutive admissions to the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania with a discharge diagnosis of congestive heart failure were reviewed. Patients with >1 hospitalization were retained for analysis. In total, 181 hospitalization pairs met the inclusion criteria. Baseline patient characteristics demonstrated significant correlation between hospitalizations (P ≤ .002 for all) but minimal association with WRF. In contrast, variables related to the aggressiveness of diuresis were weakly correlated between hospitalizations but significantly associated with WRF (P ≤ .024 for all). Consistent with the primary hypothesis, WRF during the index hospitalization was strongly associated with WRF during subsequent hospitalization (odds ratio [OR] 2.7, P = .003). This association was minimally altered after controlling for traditional baseline characteristics (OR 2.5, P = .006) and in-hospital treatment-related parameters (OR 2.8, P = .005). A prior history of WRF is strongly associated with subsequent episodes of WRF, independent of in-hospital treatment received. These results suggest that baseline factors intrinsic to the patient's cardiorenal pathophysiology have substantial influence on the subsequent development of WRF. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of Worsening Renal Function during the Treatment of Decompensated Heart Failure on Changes in Renal Function during Subsequent Hospitalization

PubMed Central

Testani, Jeffrey M.; Cappola, Thomas P.; McCauley, Brian D.; Chen, Jennifer; Shen, James; Shannon, Richard P.; Kimmel, Stephen E.

2011-01-01

Background Worsening renal function (WRF) commonly complicates the treatment of acute decompensated heart failure. Despite considerable investigation in this area, it remains unclear to what degree WRF is a reflection of treatment versus patient related factors. We hypothesized that if WRF is significantly influenced by factors intrinsic to the patient than WRF during an index hospitalization should predict WRF during subsequent hospitalization. Methods Consecutive admissions to the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania with a discharge diagnosis of congestive heart failure were reviewed. Patients with >1 hospitalization were retained for analysis. Results In total 181 hospitalization pairs met the inclusion criteria. Baseline patient characteristics demonstrated significant correlation between hospitalizations (p≤0.002 for all) but minimal association with WRF. In contrast, variables related to the aggressiveness of diuresis were weakly correlated between hospitalizations but significantly associated with WRF (p≤0.024 for all). Consistent with the primary hypothesis, WRF during the index hospitalization was strongly associated with WRF during subsequent hospitalization (OR=2.7, p=0.003). This association was minimally altered after controlling for traditional baseline characteristics (OR=2.5, p=0.006) and in-hospital treatment related parameters (OR=2.8, p=0.005). Conclusions A prior history of WRF is strongly associated with subsequent episodes of WRF, independent of in-hospital treatment received. These results suggest that baseline factors intrinsic to the patient’s cardiorenal pathophysiology have substantial influence on the subsequent development of WRF. PMID:21570527

Exclusive processes and the fundamental structure of hadrons

DOE PAGES

Brodsky, Stanley J.

2015-01-20

I review the historical development of QCD predictions for exclusive hadronic processes, beginning with constituent counting rules and the quark interchange mechanism, phenomena which gave early validation for the quark structure of hadrons. The subsequent development of pQCD factorization theorems for hard exclusive amplitudes and the development of evolution equations for the hadron distribution amplitudes provided a rigorous framework for calculating hadronic form factors and hard scattering exclusive scattering processes at high momentum transfer. I also give a brief introduction to the field of "light-front holography" and the insights it brings to quark confinement, the behavior of the QCD couplingmore » in the nonperturbative domain, as well as hadron spectroscopy and the dynamics of exclusive processes.« less

Exclusive processes and the fundamental structure of hadrons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brodsky, Stanley J.

I review the historical development of QCD predictions for exclusive hadronic processes, beginning with constituent counting rules and the quark interchange mechanism, phenomena which gave early validation for the quark structure of hadrons. The subsequent development of pQCD factorization theorems for hard exclusive amplitudes and the development of evolution equations for the hadron distribution amplitudes provided a rigorous framework for calculating hadronic form factors and hard scattering exclusive scattering processes at high momentum transfer. I also give a brief introduction to the field of "light-front holography" and the insights it brings to quark confinement, the behavior of the QCD couplingmore » in the nonperturbative domain, as well as hadron spectroscopy and the dynamics of exclusive processes.« less

A proposal for a drug product Manufacturing Classification System (MCS) for oral solid dosage forms.

PubMed

Leane, Michael; Pitt, Kendal; Reynolds, Gavin

2015-01-01

This paper proposes the development of a drug product Manufacturing Classification System (MCS) based on processing route. It summarizes conclusions from a dedicated APS conference and subsequent discussion within APS focus groups and the MCS working party. The MCS is intended as a tool for pharmaceutical scientists to rank the feasibility of different processing routes for the manufacture of oral solid dosage forms, based on selected properties of the API and the needs of the formulation. It has many applications in pharmaceutical development, in particular, it will provide a common understanding of risk by defining what the "right particles" are, enable the selection of the best process, and aid subsequent transfer to manufacturing. The ultimate aim is one of prediction of product developability and processability based upon previous experience. This paper is intended to stimulate contribution from a broad range of stakeholders to develop the MCS concept further and apply it to practice. In particular, opinions are sought on what API properties are important when selecting or modifying materials to enable an efficient and robust pharmaceutical manufacturing process. Feedback can be given by replying to our dedicated e-mail address (mcs@apsgb.org); completing the survey on our LinkedIn site; or by attending one of our planned conference roundtable sessions.

Validation of a Deterministic Vibroacoustic Response Prediction Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caimi, Raoul E.; Margasahayam, Ravi

1997-01-01

This report documents the recently completed effort involving validation of a deterministic theory for the random vibration problem of predicting the response of launch pad structures in the low-frequency range (0 to 50 hertz). Use of the Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) methods is not suitable in this range. Measurements of launch-induced acoustic loads and subsequent structural response were made on a cantilever beam structure placed in close proximity (200 feet) to the launch pad. Innovative ways of characterizing random, nonstationary, non-Gaussian acoustics are used for the development of a structure's excitation model. Extremely good correlation was obtained between analytically computed responses and those measured on the cantilever beam. Additional tests are recommended to bound the problem to account for variations in launch trajectory and inclination.

Model-based prognostics for batteries which estimates useful life and uses a probability density function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saha, Bhaskar (Inventor); Goebel, Kai F. (Inventor)

2012-01-01

This invention develops a mathematical model to describe battery behavior during individual discharge cycles as well as over its cycle life. The basis for the form of the model has been linked to the internal processes of the battery and validated using experimental data. Effects of temperature and load current have also been incorporated into the model. Subsequently, the model has been used in a Particle Filtering framework to make predictions of remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles as well as for cycle life. The prediction performance was found to be satisfactory as measured by performance metrics customized for prognostics for a sample case. The work presented here provides initial steps towards a comprehensive health management solution for energy storage devices.

Transactions Between Child Social Wariness and Observed Structured Parenting: Evidence From a Prospective Adoption Study

PubMed Central

Natsuaki, Misaki N.; Leve, Leslie D.; Harold, Gordon T.; Neiderhiser, Jenae M.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Ganiban, Jody; Scaramella, Laura V.; Reiss, David

2013-01-01

This investigation examined the mutual influences between structured parenting and child social wariness during toddlerhood using a longitudinal adoption design. The sample consisted of 361 adoption-linked families, each including an adopted child, adoptive parents, and a birth mother. Heightened social wariness in children at age 18 months predicted reduced levels of observed structured parenting (i.e., less directive parenting with fewer commands and requests) in adoptive mothers at age 27 months. Adoptive fathers’ lower structured parenting at age 18 months predicted subsequent elevation in child social wariness. Birth mothers’ history of fear-related anxiety disorders was not associated with child social wariness. Findings highlight the role of dynamic family transactions in the development of social wariness during toddlerhood. PMID:23448430

Residential Mobility During Adolescence: Do Even “Upward” Moves Predict Dropout Risk?

PubMed Central

Metzger, Molly W.; Fowler, Patrick J.; Anderson, Courtney Lauren; Lindsay, Constance A.

2015-01-01

This paper uses the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to investigate the impact of housing instability in adolescence on the likelihood of subsequent graduation from high school. Combining census data, self-reports, and information about respondents’ residential changes, we use the variation in the number of moves and neighborhood quality to predict whether participants obtain a high school diploma. Controlling for major predictors of housing mobility, students experiencing at least one move over a 12-month period have a roughly 50% decreased likelihood of obtaining a high school diploma by the age of 25. These associations are identified regardless of whether students move to a poorer or less-poor neighborhood. Our results carry implications for the development of housing policies and interventions designed for disadvantaged populations. PMID:26188449

Viii. Attachment and sleep among toddlers: disentangling attachment security and dependency.

PubMed

Bélanger, Marie-Ève; Bernier, Annie; Simard, Valérie; Bordeleau, Stéphanie; Carrier, Julie

2015-03-01

Many scholars have proposed that parent-child attachment security should favor child sleep. Research has yet, however, to provide convincing support for this hypothesis. The current study used objective measures of sleep and attachment to assess the longitudinal links between mother-child attachment security and subsequent sleep, controlling for child dependency. Sixty-two middle-class families (30 girls) were met twice, when children were 15 months (Wave 1; W1) and 2 years of age (Wave 2; W2). At W1, mother-child attachment was assessed with the observer version of the Attachment Q-Sort. At W2, children wore an actigraph monitor for 72 hr. Results indicated that children more securely attached to their mothers subsequently slept more at night and had higher sleep efficiency, and these predictions were not confounded by child dependency. These findings suggest a unique role for secure attachment relationships in the development of young children's sleep regulation, while addressing methodological issues that have long precluded consensus in this literature. © 2015 The Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Personality disorders in early adolescence and the development of later substance use disorders in the general population

PubMed Central

Cohen, Patricia; Chen, Henian; Crawford, Thomas N.; Brook, Judith S.; Gordon, Kathy

2007-01-01

Assessments of personality disorder (PD) and conduct disorder (CD) in a random community sample at mean age 13 were employed to predict subsequent substance abuse disorder (SUD), trajectories of symptoms of abuse or dependence on alcohol, marijuana, or other illicit substances, and hazard of initiating marijuana use over the subsequent decade. Personality disorders and conduct disorder were associated with diagnoses and symptoms of SUDs in every model and their effects were independent of correlated family risks, participant sex, and other Axis I disorders. Specific elevated PD symptoms in early adolescence were also associated with differential trajectories of already initiated SUD symptoms as well as elevated risk for future onset of SUD symptoms. For several models the greatest of these effects were shown for borderline PD and for conduct disorder, the predecessor of adult antisocial PD. Passive-aggressive PD also showed independent elevation effects on substance use symptoms for alcohol and marijuana. Analyses over 30 years suggest that Cluster B PD (borderline, histrionic, narcissistic) are independent risks for development of SUD and warrant clinical attention. PMID:17227697

Personality disorders in early adolescence and the development of later substance use disorders in the general population.

PubMed

Cohen, Patricia; Chen, Henian; Crawford, Thomas N; Brook, Judith S; Gordon, Kathy

2007-04-01

Assessments of personality disorder (PD) and conduct disorder (CD) in a random community sample at mean age 13 were employed to predict subsequent substance abuse disorder (SUD), trajectories of symptoms of abuse or dependence on alcohol, marijuana, or other illicit substances, and hazard of initiating marijuana use over the subsequent decade. Personality disorders and conduct disorder were associated with diagnoses and symptoms of SUDs in every model and their effects were independent of correlated family risks, participant sex, and other Axis I disorders. Specific elevated PD symptoms in early adolescence were also associated with differential trajectories of already initiated SUD symptoms as well as elevated risk for future onset of SUD symptoms. For several models the greatest of these effects were shown for borderline PD and for conduct disorder, the predecessor of adult antisocial PD. Passive-aggressive PD also showed independent elevation effects on substance use symptoms for alcohol and marijuana. Analyses over 30 years suggest that Cluster B PD (borderline, histrionic, narcissistic) are independent risks for development of SUD and warrant clinical attention.

Analysis of phase II studies on targeted agents and subsequent phase III trials: what are the predictors for success?

PubMed

Chan, John K; Ueda, Stefanie M; Sugiyama, Valerie E; Stave, Christopher D; Shin, Jacob Y; Monk, Bradley J; Sikic, Branimir I; Osann, Kathryn; Kapp, Daniel S

2008-03-20

To identify the characteristics of phase II studies that predict for subsequent "positive" phase III trials (those that reached the proposed primary end points of study or those wherein the study drug was superior to the standard regimen investigating targeted agents in advanced tumors. We identified all phase III clinical trials of targeted therapies against advanced cancers published from 1985 to 2005. Characteristics of the preceding phase II studies were reviewed to identify predictive factors for success of the subsequent phase III trial. Data were analyzed using the chi(2) test and logistic regression models. Of 351 phase II studies, 167 (47.6%) subsequent phase III trials were positive and 184 (52.4%) negative. Phase II studies from multiple rather than single institutions were more likely to precede a successful trial (60.4% v 39.4%; P < .001). Positive phase II results were more likely to lead to a successful phase III trial (50.8% v 22.5%; P = .003). The percentage of successful trials from pharmaceutical companies was significantly higher compared with academic, cooperative groups, and research institutes (89.5% v 44.2%, 45.2%, and 46.3%, respectively; P = .002). On multivariate analysis, these factors and shorter time interval between publication of phase II results and III study publication were independent predictive factors for a positive phase III trial. In phase II studies of targeted agents, multiple- versus single-institution participation, positive phase II trial, pharmaceutical company-based trials, and shorter time period between publication of phase II to phase III trial were independent predictive factors of success in a phase III trial. Investigators should be cognizant of these factors in phase II studies before designing phase III trials.

Scanning sequences after Gibbs sampling to find multiple occurrences of functional elements

PubMed Central

Tharakaraman, Kannan; Mariño-Ramírez, Leonardo; Sheetlin, Sergey L; Landsman, David; Spouge, John L

2006-01-01

Background Many DNA regulatory elements occur as multiple instances within a target promoter. Gibbs sampling programs for finding DNA regulatory elements de novo can be prohibitively slow in locating all instances of such an element in a sequence set. Results We describe an improvement to the A-GLAM computer program, which predicts regulatory elements within DNA sequences with Gibbs sampling. The improvement adds an optional "scanning step" after Gibbs sampling. Gibbs sampling produces a position specific scoring matrix (PSSM). The new scanning step resembles an iterative PSI-BLAST search based on the PSSM. First, it assigns an "individual score" to each subsequence of appropriate length within the input sequences using the initial PSSM. Second, it computes an E-value from each individual score, to assess the agreement between the corresponding subsequence and the PSSM. Third, it permits subsequences with E-values falling below a threshold to contribute to the underlying PSSM, which is then updated using the Bayesian calculus. A-GLAM iterates its scanning step to convergence, at which point no new subsequences contribute to the PSSM. After convergence, A-GLAM reports predicted regulatory elements within each sequence in order of increasing E-values, so users have a statistical evaluation of the predicted elements in a convenient presentation. Thus, although the Gibbs sampling step in A-GLAM finds at most one regulatory element per input sequence, the scanning step can now rapidly locate further instances of the element in each sequence. Conclusion Datasets from experiments determining the binding sites of transcription factors were used to evaluate the improvement to A-GLAM. Typically, the datasets included several sequences containing multiple instances of a regulatory motif. The improvements to A-GLAM permitted it to predict the multiple instances. PMID:16961919

Do Children's Executive Functions Account for Associations Between Early Autonomy-Supportive Parenting and Achievement Through High School?

PubMed Central

Bindman, Samantha W.; Pomerantz, Eva M.; Roisman, Glenn I.

2015-01-01

This study evaluated whether the positive association between early autonomy-supportive parenting and children's subsequent achievement is mediated by children's executive functions. Using observations of mothers’ parenting from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (N = 1,306), analyses revealed that mothers’ autonomy support over the first 3 years of life predicted enhanced executive functions (i.e., inhibition, delay of gratification, and sustained attention) during the year prior to kindergarten and academic achievement in elementary and high school even when mothers’ warmth and cognitive stimulation, as well as other factors (e.g., children's early general cognitive skills and mothers’ educational attainment) were covaried. Mediation analyses demonstrated that over and above other attributes (e.g., temperament), children's executive functions partially accounted for the association between early autonomy-supportive parenting and children's subsequent achievement. PMID:26366009

Do Children's Executive Functions Account for Associations Between Early Autonomy-Supportive Parenting and Achievement Through High School?

PubMed

Bindman, Samantha W; Pomerantz, Eva M; Roisman, Glenn I

2015-08-01

This study evaluated whether the positive association between early autonomy-supportive parenting and children's subsequent achievement is mediated by children's executive functions. Using observations of mothers' parenting from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development ( N = 1,306), analyses revealed that mothers' autonomy support over the first 3 years of life predicted enhanced executive functions (i.e., inhibition, delay of gratification, and sustained attention) during the year prior to kindergarten and academic achievement in elementary and high school even when mothers' warmth and cognitive stimulation, as well as other factors (e.g., children's early general cognitive skills and mothers' educational attainment) were covaried. Mediation analyses demonstrated that over and above other attributes (e.g., temperament), children's executive functions partially accounted for the association between early autonomy-supportive parenting and children's subsequent achievement.

Association between background parenchymal enhancement of breast MRI and BIRADS rating change in the subsequent screening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghaei, Faranak; Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Hollingsworth, Alan B.; Stoug, Rebecca G.; Pearce, Melanie; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

2018-03-01

Although breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been used as a breast cancer screening modality for high-risk women, its cancer detection yield remains low (i.e., <= 3%). Thus, increasing breast MRI screening efficacy and cancer detection yield is an important clinical issue in breast cancer screening. In this study, we investigated association between the background parenchymal enhancement (BPE) of breast MRI and the change of diagnostic (BIRADS) status in the next subsequent breast MRI screening. A dataset with 65 breast MRI screening cases was retrospectively assembled. All cases were rated BIRADS-2 (benign findings). In the subsequent screening, 4 cases were malignant (BIRADS-6), 48 remained BIRADS-2 and 13 were downgraded to negative (BIRADS-1). A computer-aided detection scheme was applied to process images of the first set of breast MRI screening. Total of 33 features were computed including texture feature and global BPE features. Texture features were computed from either a gray-level co-occurrence matrix or a gray level run length matrix. Ten global BPE features were also initially computed from two breast regions and bilateral difference between the left and right breasts. Box-plot based analysis shows positive association between texture features and BIRADS rating levels in the second screening. Furthermore, a logistic regression model was built using optimal features selected by a CFS based feature selection method. Using a leave-one-case-out based cross-validation method, classification yielded an overall 75% accuracy in predicting the improvement (or downgrade) of diagnostic status (to BIRAD-1) in the subsequent breast MRI screening. This study demonstrated potential of developing a new quantitative imaging marker to predict diagnostic status change in the short-term, which may help eliminate a high fraction of unnecessary repeated breast MRI screenings and increase the cancer detection yield.

Asthma medication ratio predicts emergency department visits and hospitalizations in children with asthma.

PubMed

Andrews, Annie Lintzenich; Simpson, Annie N; Basco, William T; Teufel, Ronald J

2013-01-01

To determine if the asthma medication ratio predicts subsequent emergency department (ED) visits and hospital admissions in children. Retrospective cohort with two year pairs. 2007-2009 South Carolina Medicaid recipients with persistent asthma age 2-18. Controller-to-total asthma medication ratios were calculated for each patient in 2007 and 2008. Ratios range from 0-1 (1 = ideal, 0 = no controller). 2008 and 2009 asthma related ED visits, hospitalizations, and a combined outcome of ED visit or hospitalization in the subsequent 3, 6, and 12 month time periods. 19,512 patients were included. Mean age 8.9 years, 58% male, and 55% black. The ratio significantly predicted ED visits and hospitalizations over subsequent 3, 6, and 12 month time periods. The cut-point that maximized the ability to predict visits ranged from 0.4-0.6. A cutpoint of 0.5 was used in the final models. After controlling for age, race, gender, and rurality, patients with a ratio <0.5 were significantly more likely to have a subsequent emergent healthcare visit (OR 1.5-2.0). The ratio retained its predictive ability in both year-pairs for all three outcome variables, in all three time periods, with the exception of the 2008 ratio not predicting 2009 3-month and 6-month hospitalizations. The asthma medication ratio is a significant predictor of ED visits and hospitalizations in children. Using a cutoff of <0.5 to signal at-risk patients may be an effective way for populations who would benefit from increased use of controller medications to reduce future emergent asthma visits. CPT only copyright XXXX-2012 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. CPT is a registered trademark of the American Medical Association. Applicable FARS/DFARS Apply to Government Use. Fee schedules, relative value units, conversion factors and/or related components are not assigned by the AMA, are not part of CPT, and the AMA is not recommending their use. The AMA does not directly or indirectly practice medicine or dispense medical services. The AMA assumes no liability for data contained or not contained herein. See attached CMS CPT 2013 end user license.

Cardiac sympathetic denervation and dementia in de novo Parkinson's disease: A 7-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Choi, Mun Hee; Yoon, Jung Han; Yong, Suk Woo

2017-10-15

Postganglionic cardiac sympathetic denervation is evident in patients with early-stage Parkinson's disease (PD). Cardiac iodine-123-meta-iodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) uptake is correlated with the non-motor symptoms of PD, suggesting that low cardiac MIBG uptake may reflect wider alpha-synuclein pathology. In addition, low cardiac MIBG could be related to orthostatic hypotension in PD, which may affect cognition. However, the prognostic validity of baseline MIBG scintigraphy in terms of the risk of subsequent dementia remains unclear. We investigated whether cardiac MIBG uptake was associated with a later risk of dementia. We retrospectively enrolled 93 drug-naive patients with de novo PD who underwent MIBG scanning on initial evaluation. The patients visited our outpatient clinic every 3-6months and were followed-up for a minimum of 4years from the time they were begun on dopaminergic medication. The predictive powers of baseline MIBG cardiac scintigraphic data in terms of dementia development were evaluated using Cox's proportional hazard models. During a mean follow-up period of 6.7years, 27 patients with PD (29.0%) developed dementia. These patients had less baseline MIBG uptake than did others (delayed H/M ratios: 1.19 vs. 1.31). Multivariate Cox's proportional hazard modeling revealed that both MIBG uptake (hazard ratio [HR] 3.40; p=0.004) and age (HR 1.08, p=0.01) significantly predicted dementia development. A reduction in cardiac MIBG uptake by PD patients may be associated with a subsequent risk of dementia; reduced uptake may reflect wider extension of alpha-synuclein pathology in PD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Liver recurrence in endometrial cancer: a multi-institutional analysis of factors predictive of postrecurrence survival.

PubMed

Toptas, Tayfun; Karalok, Alper; Ureyen, Isin; Tasci, Tolga; Erol, Onur; Bozkurt, Selen; Tulunay, Gokhan; Simsek, Tayup; Turan, Taner

2016-10-01

Predictive factors for survival following liver metastasis in endometrial cancer (EC) have not been studied to date. It is expected that patients who initially presented with liver metastasis or developed liver metastasis as the subsequent metastatic site of progressive disease are likely to have poor outcomes. However, patients developing liver metastasis as the first site of recurrence may have a chance of benefiting from the salvage therapies. Therefore, we aimed to determine factors influencing postrecurrence survival in EC patients who developed liver metastasis as the first site of recurrence. Patients with EC who underwent primary surgery at three centers between 1993 and 2013 were reviewed. Liver recurrence was defined as documentation of parenchymal liver metastasis either by radiologically or biopsy, after a disease-free interval of ≥3 months. Patients with liver metastasis at presentation, or liver metastasis as the subsequent metastatic site of progressive disease were excluded. Forty-six patients were identified. Median time to liver recurrence was 12 months, with 91.3 % of recurrences detected within 3 years. Most patients (73.9 %) had liver recurrence concomitant with extra-hepatic disease. Median survival after the diagnosis of liver recurrence was 9 months. While in univariate analysis, time to liver recurrence (p < 0.001) and presence of concomitant extra-hepatic metastasis (p = 0.048) were potential predictors of survival, multivariate analysis revealed that time to liver recurrence (p < 0.001) was the only independent predictor. This criterion may be used as a marker for stratifying patients into different prognostic risk groups and for selection of patients for salvage therapies.

Longitudinal and concurrent links between memory span, anxiety symptoms, and subsequent executive functioning in young children

PubMed Central

Visu-Petra, Laura; Stanciu, Oana; Benga, Oana; Miclea, Mircea; Cheie, Lavinia

2014-01-01

It has been conjectured that basic individual differences in attentional control influence higher-level executive functioning and subsequent academic performance in children. The current study sets out to complement the limited body of research on early precursors of executive functions (EFs). It provides both a cross-sectional, as well as a longitudinal exploration of the relationship between EF and more basic attentional control mechanisms, assessed via children's performance on memory storage tasks, and influenced by individual differences in anxiety. Multiple measures of verbal and visuospatial short-term memory (STM) were administered to children between 3 and 6 years old, alongside a non-verbal measure of intelligence, and a parental report of anxiety symptoms. After 9 months, children were re-tested on the same STM measures, at which time we also administered multiple measures of executive functioning: verbal and visuospatial working memory (WM), inhibition, and shifting. A cross-sectional view of STM development indicated that between 3 and 6 years the trajectory of visuospatial STM and EF underwent a gradual linear improvement. However, between 5 and 6 years progress in verbal STM performance stagnated. Hierarchical regression models revealed that trait anxiety was negatively associated with WM and shifting, while non-verbal intelligence was positively related to WM span. When age, gender, non-verbal intelligence, and anxiety were controlled for, STM (measured at the first assessment) was a very good predictor of overall executive performance. The models were most successful in predicting WM, followed by shifting, yet poorly predicted inhibition measures. Further longitudinal research is needed to directly address the contribution of attentional control mechanisms to emerging executive functioning and to the development of problematic behavior during early development. PMID:24904462

High oolong tea consumption predicts future risk of diabetes among Japanese male workers: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Hayashino, Y; Fukuhara, S; Okamura, T; Tanaka, T; Ueshima, H

2011-07-01

Acute administration of oolong tea decreases blood glucose levels. We investigated the association between long-term oolong tea intake and subsequent risk of developing diabetes among men of working age. Data were analysed from a cohort of participants in the High-risk and Population Strategy for Occupational Health Promotion Study (HIPOP-OHP), conducted in Japan from 1999 to 2004. Oolong tea intake at baseline and subsequent risk of diabetes was evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards model. Of 4975 male workers, a total of 201 cases of diabetes were reported over a median of 3.4 years of follow-up. Mean age and BMI of all participants at baseline were 38.3 years and 22.9 kg/m(2) , respectively. Compared with those not consuming oolong tea, multivariable adjusted hazard ratios for developing diabetes were 1.00 (95% CI 0.67-1.49) for those who drank one cup of oolong tea per day and 1.64 (95% CI 1.11-2.40) for those drinking two or more cups per day. Fasting blood glucose increment per year was 0.11 mmol/l (95% CI 0.09-0.12 mmol/l), 0.12 mmol/l (95% CI 0.09-0.15 mmol/l) and 0.15 mmol/l (95% CI 0.11-0.18 mmol/l), respectively, for oolong tea consumption of 0, 1 and ≥ 2 cups/day, with a significant linear trend (P < 0.0001). Long-term consumption of oolong tea may be a predictive factor for new onset diabetes. Further studies are necessary to elucidate the role of oolong tea in the risk of developing diabetes. © 2011 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2011 Diabetes UK.

Early Elevations of the Complement Activation Fragment C3a and Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes

PubMed Central

Lynch, Anne M.; Gibbs, Ronald S.; Murphy, James R.; Giclas, Patricia C.; Salmon, Jane E.; Holers, V. Michael

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE To estimate whether elevations of complement C3a early in pregnancy are predictive of the subsequent development of adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHODS A plasma sample was obtained from each enrolled pregnant woman before 20 weeks of gestation. The cohort (n=1,002) was evaluated for the development of adverse pregnancy outcomes defined as hypertensive diseases of pregnancy (gestational hypertension or preeclampsia), preterm birth (before 37 weeks of gestation), premature rupture of the membranes, pregnancy loss (during the embryonic and fetal period), intrauterine growth restriction, and the composite outcome of any adverse outcome. RESULTS One or more adverse pregnancy outcomes occurred in 211 (21%) of the cohort. The mean levels (ng/mL) of C3a in early pregnancy were significantly (P=<.001) higher among women with one or more adverse outcomes (858±435) compared with women with an uncomplicated pregnancy (741±407). Adjusted for parity and prepregnancy body mass index, women with levels of C3a in the upper quartile in early pregnancy were three times more likely to have an adverse outcome later in pregnancy compared with women in the lowest quartile (95% confidence interval, 1.8–4.8; P<.001). The link between early elevated C3a levels and adverse pregnancy outcomes was driven primarily by individual significant (P<.05) associations of C3a with hypertensive diseases of pregnancy, preterm birth, and premature rupture of the membranes. CONCLUSION Elevated C3a as early as the first trimester of pregnancy is an independent predictive factor for adverse pregnancy outcomes, suggesting that complement-related inflammatory events in pregnancy contribute to the subsequent development of poor outcomes at later stages of pregnancy. PMID:21173647

Impact of Low Social Preference on the Development of Depressive and Aggressive Symptoms: Buffering by Children's Prosocial Behavior.

PubMed

He, Jin; Koot, Hans M; Buil, J Marieke; van Lier, Pol A C

2017-12-19

Holding a low social position among peers has been widely demonstrated to be associated with the development of depressive and aggressive symptoms in children. However, little is known about potential protective factors in this association. The present study examined whether increases in children's prosocial behavior can buffer the association between their low social preference among peers and the development of depressive and aggressive symptoms in the first few school years. We followed 324 children over 1.5 years with three assessments across kindergarten and first grade elementary school. Children rated the (dis)likability of each of their classroom peers and teachers rated each child's prosocial behavior, depressive and aggressive symptoms. Results showed that low social preference at the start of kindergarten predicted persistent low social preference at the start of first grade in elementary school, which in turn predicted increases in both depressive and aggressive symptoms at the end of first grade. However, the indirect pathways were moderated by change in prosocial behavior. Specifically, for children whose prosocial behavior increased during kindergarten, low social preference in first grade elementary school no longer predicted increases in depressive and aggressive symptoms. In contrast, for children whose prosocial behavior did not increase, their low social preference in first grade elementary school continued to predict increases in both depressive and aggressive symptoms. These results suggest that improving prosocial behavior in children with low social preference as early as kindergarten may reduce subsequent risk of developing depressive and aggressive symptom.

Does stress mediate the development of substance use disorders among youth transitioning to young adulthood?

PubMed

Cornelius, Jack; Kirisci, Levent; Reynolds, Maureen; Tarter, Ralph

2014-05-01

Stress is a well-documented factor in the development of addiction. However, no longitudinal studies to date have assessed the role of stress in mediating the development of substance use disorders (SUD). Our previous results have demonstrated that a measure called Transmissible Liability Index (TLI) assessed during pre-adolescent years serves as a significant predictor of risk for substance use disorder among young adults. However, it remains unclear whether life stress mediates the relationship between TLI and SUD, or whether stress predicts SUD. We conducted a longitudinal study involving 191 male subjects to assess whether life stress mediates the relationship between TLI as assessed at age 10-12 and subsequent development of SUD at age 22, after controlling for other relevant factors. Logistic regression demonstrated that the development of SUD at age 22 was associated with stress at age 19. A path analysis demonstrated that stress at age 19 significantly predicted SUD at age 22. However, stress did not mediate the relationship between the TLI assessed at age 10-12 and SUD in young adulthood. These findings confirm that stress plays a role in the development of SUD, but also shows that stress does not mediate the development of SUD. Further studies are warranted to clarify the role of stress in the etiology of SUD.

Monte Carlo simulation as a tool to predict blasting fragmentation based on the Kuz Ram model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morin, Mario A.; Ficarazzo, Francesco

2006-04-01

Rock fragmentation is considered the most important aspect of production blasting because of its direct effects on the costs of drilling and blasting and on the economics of the subsequent operations of loading, hauling and crushing. Over the past three decades, significant progress has been made in the development of new technologies for blasting applications. These technologies include increasingly sophisticated computer models for blast design and blast performance prediction. Rock fragmentation depends on many variables such as rock mass properties, site geology, in situ fracturing and blasting parameters and as such has no complete theoretical solution for its prediction. However, empirical models for the estimation of size distribution of rock fragments have been developed. In this study, a blast fragmentation Monte Carlo-based simulator, based on the Kuz-Ram fragmentation model, has been developed to predict the entire fragmentation size distribution, taking into account intact and joints rock properties, the type and properties of explosives and the drilling pattern. Results produced by this simulator were quite favorable when compared with real fragmentation data obtained from a blast quarry. It is anticipated that the use of Monte Carlo simulation will increase our understanding of the effects of rock mass and explosive properties on the rock fragmentation by blasting, as well as increase our confidence in these empirical models. This understanding will translate into improvements in blasting operations, its corresponding costs and the overall economics of open pit mines and rock quarries.

IPAC-Inlet Performance Analysis Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnhart, Paul J.

1997-01-01

A series of analyses have been developed which permit the calculation of the performance of common inlet designs. The methods presented are useful for determining the inlet weight flows, total pressure recovery, and aerodynamic drag coefficients for given inlet geometric designs. Limited geometric input data is required to use this inlet performance prediction methodology. The analyses presented here may also be used to perform inlet preliminary design studies. The calculated inlet performance parameters may be used in subsequent engine cycle analyses or installed engine performance calculations for existing uninstalled engine data.

Development of a Multi-Scale Methodology for Prediction of the Microscopic Anisotropic Stress-Strain Response of Textured Metals under Dynamic Loading

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-21

will be denoted by v ⊗ u. Superscript T indicates the transpose operation (AT )ij = Aji for any second-order tensor A while symbol ‘tr‘ denotes the...indicated in red . which was subsequently marked on the plate as shown in Figure 2. Note that the plate exhibits fiber texture resulting from the...specimen deformed to 10% strain reveals that many grains have twinned (twins appear red in Figure 9). The twin volume fraction was estimated to be 17

Nonlinear Visco-Elastic Response of Composites via Micro-Mechanical Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gates, Thomas S.; Sridharan, Srinivasan

2005-01-01

Micro-mechanical models for a study of nonlinear visco-elastic response of composite laminae are developed and their performance compared. A single integral constitutive law proposed by Schapery and subsequently generalized to multi-axial states of stress is utilized in the study for the matrix material. This is used in conjunction with a computationally facile scheme in which hereditary strains are computed using a recursive relation suggested by Henriksen. Composite response is studied using two competing micro-models, viz. a simplified Square Cell Model (SSCM) and a Finite Element based self-consistent Cylindrical Model (FECM). The algorithm is developed assuming that the material response computations are carried out in a module attached to a general purpose finite element program used for composite structural analysis. It is shown that the SSCM as used in investigations of material nonlinearity can involve significant errors in the prediction of transverse Young's modulus and shear modulus. The errors in the elastic strains thus predicted are of the same order of magnitude as the creep strains accruing due to visco-elasticity. The FECM on the other hand does appear to perform better both in the prediction of elastic constants and the study of creep response.

Combining guilt-by-association and guilt-by-profiling to predict Saccharomyces cerevisiae gene function

PubMed Central

Tian, Weidong; Zhang, Lan V; Taşan, Murat; Gibbons, Francis D; King, Oliver D; Park, Julie; Wunderlich, Zeba; Cherry, J Michael; Roth, Frederick P

2008-01-01

Background: Learning the function of genes is a major goal of computational genomics. Methods for inferring gene function have typically fallen into two categories: 'guilt-by-profiling', which exploits correlation between function and other gene characteristics; and 'guilt-by-association', which transfers function from one gene to another via biological relationships. Results: We have developed a strategy ('Funckenstein') that performs guilt-by-profiling and guilt-by-association and combines the results. Using a benchmark set of functional categories and input data for protein-coding genes in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Funckenstein was compared with a previous combined strategy. Subsequently, we applied Funckenstein to 2,455 Gene Ontology terms. In the process, we developed 2,455 guilt-by-profiling classifiers based on 8,848 gene characteristics and 12 functional linkage graphs based on 23 biological relationships. Conclusion: Funckenstein outperforms a previous combined strategy using a common benchmark dataset. The combination of 'guilt-by-profiling' and 'guilt-by-association' gave significant improvement over the component classifiers, showing the greatest synergy for the most specific functions. Performance was evaluated by cross-validation and by literature examination of the top-scoring novel predictions. These quantitative predictions should help prioritize experimental study of yeast gene functions. PMID:18613951

INFANT AVOIDANCE DURING A TACTILE TASK PREDICTS AUTISM SPECTRUM BEHAVIORS IN TODDLERHOOD.

PubMed

Mammen, Micah A; Moore, Ginger A; Scaramella, Laura V; Reiss, David; Ganiban, Jody M; Shaw, Daniel S; Leve, Leslie D; Neiderhiser, Jenae M

2015-01-01

The experience of touch is critical for early communication and social interaction; infants who show aversion to touch may be at risk for atypical development and behavior problems. The current study aimed to clarify predictive associations between infant responses to tactile stimuli and toddler autism spectrum, internalizing, and externalizing behaviors. This study measured 9-month-old infants' (N = 561; 58% male) avoidance and negative affect during a novel tactile task in which parents painted infants' hands and feet and pressed them to paper to make a picture. Parent reports on the Pervasive Developmental Problems (PDP), Internalizing, and Externalizing scales of the Child Behavior Checklist were used to measure toddler behaviors at 18 months. Infant observed avoidance and negative affect were significantly correlated; however, avoidance predicted subsequent PDP scores only, independent of negative affect, which did not predict any toddler behaviors. Findings suggest that incorporating measures of responses to touch in the study of early social interaction may provide an important and discriminating construct for identifying children at greater risk for social impairments related to autism spectrum behaviors. © 2015 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.

Co-occurrence of antisocial behavior and substance use: testing for sex differences in the impact of older male friends, low parental knowledge and friends' delinquency.

PubMed

McAdams, Tom A; Salekin, Randall T; Marti, C Nathan; Lester, Whiney S; Barker, Edward D

2014-04-01

Delinquency and substance use (SU) are commonly comorbid during adolescence. In the present study we investigate this co-morbidity with 3 main objectives: 1. Evaluate reciprocal relationships between delinquency/SU across early adolescence. 2. Assess the impact of older male friends, low parental knowledge and friends' delinquency on subsequent development and inter-relationships of delinquency and SU. 3. Evaluate sex differences in these relationships. We applied cross-lagged structural equation models to the analysis of a longitudinal sample (n=3699). Findings demonstrated: (1) At ages 13-14 delinquency predicted SU more so than vice versa but effects became equal between ages 14 and 15. (2) Low parental knowledge and friends' delinquency predicted delinquency and SU. Older male friends predicted ASB. (3) Sex differences were present. For example, in the absence of antisocial friends low parent knowledge at age 12 indirectly predicted increased age 15 SU for girls more than boys. Copyright © 2014 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of state and material properties during heat-curing molding of composite materials using data assimilation: A numerical study.

PubMed

Matsuzaki, Ryosuke; Tachikawa, Takeshi; Ishizuka, Junya

2018-03-01

Accurate simulations of carbon fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP) molding are vital for the development of high-quality products. However, such simulations are challenging and previous attempts to improve the accuracy of simulations by incorporating the data acquired from mold monitoring have not been completely successful. Therefore, in the present study, we developed a method to accurately predict various CFRP thermoset molding characteristics based on data assimilation, a process that combines theoretical and experimental values. The degree of cure as well as temperature and thermal conductivity distributions during the molding process were estimated using both temperature data and numerical simulations. An initial numerical experiment demonstrated that the internal mold state could be determined solely from the surface temperature values. A subsequent numerical experiment to validate this method showed that estimations based on surface temperatures were highly accurate in the case of degree of cure and internal temperature, although predictions of thermal conductivity were more difficult.

The Changing Science of Urban Transportation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, Tom

2010-03-01

The last half of the 20th Century was the age of the automobile, and the development of bigger and faster roads defined urban planning for more than 50 years. During this period, transportation planners developed sophisticated behavior models to help predict future travel patterns in an attempt to keep pace with ever-growing congestion and public demand for more roads. By the 1990s, however, it was clear that eliminating congestion with new road capacity was an unattainable outcome, and had unintended effects that were never considered when the automobile era first emerged. Today, public expectations are rapidly evolving beyond ``building our way out'' of congestion, and toward more complex definitions of desired outcomes in transportation planning. In this new century, planners must improve behavior models to predict not only the travel patterns of the future, but also the subsequent environmental, social and public health effects associated with growth and changes in travel behavior, and provide alternative transportation solutions that respond to these broader outcomes.

What the stories children tell can tell about their memory: narrative skill and young children's suggestibility.

PubMed

Kulkofsky, Sarah; Klemfuss, J Zoe

2008-09-01

The authors examined the relation between children's narrative ability, which has been identified as an important contributor to memory development, and suggestibility. Across 2 studies, a total of 112 preschool-aged children witnessed a staged event and were subsequently questioned suggestively. Results from Study 1 indicated that children's ability to provide a high-quality narrative of the event was related to resistance to suggestive questions, and narrative ability appeared to supersede age as a predictor of such resistance. In Study 2, children's general language and narrative abilities were measured in addition to their ability to produce a high-quality narrative about the target event. These results replicated Study 1's findings that children's ability to produce a high-quality narrative of a previously experienced event predicted resistance to suggestion. However, the quality of children's autobiographical memory narratives predicted shifting from denial to assent. Findings are considered in light of narrative's role in memory development and underlying mechanisms that may explain children's suggestibility.

Using Monte Carlo/Gaussian Based Small Area Estimates to Predict Where Medicaid Patients Reside.

PubMed

Behrens, Jess J; Wen, Xuejin; Goel, Satyender; Zhou, Jing; Fu, Lina; Kho, Abel N

2016-01-01

Electronic Health Records (EHR) are rapidly becoming accepted as tools for planning and population health 1,2 . With the national dialogue around Medicaid expansion 12 , the role of EHR data has become even more important. For their potential to be fully realized and contribute to these discussions, techniques for creating accurate small area estimates is vital. As such, we examined the efficacy of developing small area estimates for Medicaid patients in two locations, Albuquerque and Chicago, by using a Monte Carlo/Gaussian technique that has worked in accurately locating registered voters in North Carolina 11 . The Albuquerque data, which includes patient address, will first be used to assess the accuracy of the methodology. Subsequently, it will be combined with the EHR data from Chicago to develop a regression that predicts Medicaid patients by US Block Group. We seek to create a tool that is effective in translating EHR data's potential for population health studies.

Cardiovascular reactivity to video game predicts subsequent blood pressure increases in young men: The CARDIA study.

PubMed

Markovitz, J H; Raczynski, J M; Wallace, D; Chettur, V; Chesney, M A

1998-01-01

This study was undertaken to determine the relationship between heightened reactivity of blood pressure (BP) during stress and 5-year changes in blood pressure and hypertensive status, using the CARDIA study. A total of 3364 participants (910 white men, 909 white women, 678 black men, and 867 black women), initially 20 to 32 years old and normotensive, were included. Cardiovascular reactivity to psychological stressors (video game and star-tracing tasks for 3 minutes, cold pressor test for 1 minute) was measured in 1987-1988. We then examined reactivity as a predictor of significant BP change (> or = 8 mm Hg, thought to represent a clinically significant increase) over the next 5 years. Logistic regression models were used to control for potential covariates. Significant BP change and the development of hypertension (BP greater than 140/90 or taking medication for hypertension) over the 5-year follow-up were examined in separate analyses. Increased systolic blood pressure (SBP) reactivity to the video game was associated with a significant 5-year SBP increase among the entire cohort, independent of resting SBP (p < .0001). Subsequent analyses showed that this relationship held for men but not for women. Reactivity to the star-tracing task or the cold pressor test did not predict significant BP change. Among black men only, new hypertensives (N = 36) had greater diastolic blood pressure (DBP) reactivity to the video game (p = .01). Although BP reactivity to all physical and mental stressors used in this study did not consistently predict 5-year change in BP in this young cohort, the results indicate that reactivity to a video game stressor predicts 5-year change in BP and early hypertension among young adult men. These findings are consistent with other studies showing the usefulness of stressors producing a primarily beta-adrenergic response in predicting BP change and hypertension. The results may be limited by the shortened initial rest and recovery periods used in the CARDIA protocol.

Performance during internal medicine residency training and subsequent disciplinary action by state licensing boards.

PubMed

Papadakis, Maxine A; Arnold, Gerald K; Blank, Linda L; Holmboe, Eric S; Lipner, Rebecca S

2008-06-03

Physicians who are disciplined by state licensing boards are more likely to have demonstrated unprofessional behavior in medical school. Information is limited on whether similar performance measures taken during residency can predict performance as practicing physicians. To determine whether performance measures during residency predict the likelihood of future disciplinary actions against practicing internists. Retrospective cohort study. State licensing board disciplinary actions against physicians from 1990 to 2006. 66,171 physicians who entered internal medicine residency training in the United States from 1990 to 2000 and became diplomates. Predictor variables included components of the Residents' Annual Evaluation Summary ratings and American Board of Internal Medicine (ABIM) certification examination scores. 2 performance measures independently predicted disciplinary action. A low professionalism rating on the Residents' Annual Evaluation Summary predicted increased risk for disciplinary action (hazard ratio, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.3 to 2.2]), and high performance on the ABIM certification examination predicted decreased risk for disciplinary action (hazard ratio, 0.7 [CI, 0.60 to 0.70] for American or Canadian medical school graduates and 0.9 [CI, 0.80 to 1.0] for international medical school graduates). Progressively better professionalism ratings and ABIM certification examination scores were associated with less risk for subsequent disciplinary actions; the risk ranged from 4.0% for the lowest professionalism rating to 0.5% for the highest and from 2.5% for the lowest examination scores to 0.0% for the highest. The study was retrospective. Some diplomates may have practiced outside of the United States. Nondiplomates were excluded. Poor performance on behavioral and cognitive measures during residency are associated with greater risk for state licensing board actions against practicing physicians at every point on a performance continuum. These findings support the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education standards for professionalism and cognitive performance and the development of best practices to remediate these deficiencies.

Do Different Dimensions of Male High School Students' Skills Predict Labor Market Success a Decade Later? Evidence from the NLSY.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murnane, Richard J.; Willett, John B.; Braatz, M. Jay; Duhaldeborde, Yves

2001-01-01

Uses National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data to examine whether measures of male teenagers' skills (academic, reasoning, and self-esteem) predict their wages at ages 27 and 28. All three skill types help predict subsequent wages, but have differing importance in explaining white/minority wage gaps. (Contains 37 references.) (MLH)

Freshman Year Alcohol and Marijuana Use Prospectively Predict Time to College Graduation and Subsequent Adult Roles and Independence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilhite, Emily R.; Ashenhurst, James R.; Marino, Elise N.; Fromme, Kim

2017-01-01

Objective: This study examined how freshman year substance use prospectively predicted time to college graduation, and whether delayed graduation predicted postponed adoption of adult roles and future substance use. Participants: Participants were part of a longitudinal study that began in 2004. The first analyses focused on freshman year (N =…

Quitting activity and tobacco brand Switching: findings from the ITC-4 Country Survey

PubMed Central

Cowie, Genevieve A.; Swift, Elena; Partos, Timea; Borland, Ron

2015-01-01

Objective Among Australian smokers, to examine associations between cigarette brand switching, quitting activity and possible causal directions by lagging the relationships in different directions. Methods Current smokers from nine waves (2002 to early 2012) of the ITC-4 Country Survey Australian dataset were surveyed. Measures were brand switching, both brand family and product type (roll-your-own versus factory-made cigarettes) reported in adjacent waves, interest in quitting, recent quit attempts, and one month sustained abstinence. Results Switching at one interval was unrelated to concurrent quit interest. Quit interest predicted switching at the following interval, but the effect disappeared once subsequent quit attempts were controlled for. Recent quit attempts more strongly predicted switching at concurrent (OR 1.34, 95% CI=1.18–1.52, p<0.001) and subsequent intervals (OR 1.31, 95% CI= 1.12–1.53, p=0.001) than switching predicted quit attempts, with greater asymmetry when both types of switching were combined. One month sustained abstinence and switching were unrelated in the same interval; however after controlling for concurrent switching and excluding type switchers, sustained abstinence predicted lower chance of switching at the following interval (OR=0.66, 95% CI=0.47–0.93, p=0.016). Conclusions The asymmetry suggests brand switching does not affect subsequent quitting. Implications Brand switching does not appear to interfere with quitting. PMID:25827182

Quitting activity and tobacco brand switching: findings from the ITC-4 Country Survey.

PubMed

Cowie, Genevieve A; Swift, Elena; Partos, Timea; Borland, Ron

2015-04-01

Among Australian smokers, to examine associations between cigarette brand switching, quitting activity and possible causal directions by lagging the relationships in different directions. Current smokers from nine waves (2002 to early 2012) of the ITC-4 Country Survey Australian dataset were surveyed. Measures were brand switching, both brand family and product type (roll-your-own versus factory-made cigarettes) reported in adjacent waves, interest in quitting, recent quit attempts, and one month sustained abstinence. Switching at one interval was unrelated to concurrent quit interest. Quit interest predicted switching at the following interval, but the effect disappeared once subsequent quit attempts were controlled for. Recent quit attempts more strongly predicted switching at concurrent (OR 1.34, 95%CI=1.18-1.52, p<0.001) and subsequent intervals (OR 1.31, 95%CI=1.12-1.53, p=0.001) than switching predicted quit attempts, with greater asymmetry when both types of switching were combined. One month sustained abstinence and switching were unrelated in the same interval; however, after controlling for concurrent switching and excluding type switchers, sustained abstinence predicted lower chance of switching at the following interval (OR=0.66, 95%CI=0.47-0.93, p=0.016). The asymmetry suggests brand switching does not affect subsequent quitting. Brand switching does not appear to interfere with quitting. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

To branch out or stay focused? Affective shifts differentially predict organizational citizenship behavior and task performance.

PubMed

Yang, Liu-Qin; Simon, Lauren S; Wang, Lei; Zheng, Xiaoming

2016-06-01

We draw from personality systems interaction (PSI) theory (Kuhl, 2000) and regulatory focus theory (Higgins, 1997) to examine how dynamic positive and negative affective processes interact to predict both task and contextual performance. Using a twice-daily diary design over the course of a 3-week period, results from multilevel regression analysis revealed that distinct patterns of change in positive and negative affect optimally predicted contextual and task performance among a sample of 71 employees at a medium-sized technology company. Specifically, within persons, increases (upshifts) in positive affect over the course of a workday better predicted the subsequent day's organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) when such increases were coupled with decreases (downshifts) in negative affect. The optimal pattern of change in positive and negative affect differed, however, in predicting task performance. That is, upshifts in positive affect over the course of the workday better predicted the subsequent day's task performance when such upshifts were accompanied by upshifts in negative affect. The contribution of our findings to PSI theory and the broader affective and motivation regulation literatures, along with practical implications, are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Computer simulation of solder joint failure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burchett, S.N.; Frear, D.R.; Rashid, M.M.

The thermomechanical fatigue failure of solder joints is increasingly becoming an important reliability issue for electronic packages. The purpose of this Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project was to develop computational tools for simulating the behavior of solder joints under strain and temperature cycling, taking into account the microstructural heterogeneities that exist in as-solidified near eutectic Sn-Pb joints, as well as subsequent microstructural evolution. The authors present two computational constitutive models, a two-phase model and a single-phase model, that were developed to predict the behavior of near eutectic Sn-Pb solder joints under fatigue conditions. Unique metallurgical tests provide themore » fundamental input for the constitutive relations. The two-phase model mathematically predicts the heterogeneous coarsening behavior of near eutectic Sn-Pb solder. The finite element simulations with this model agree qualitatively with experimental thermomechanical fatigue tests. The simulations show that the presence of an initial heterogeneity in the solder microstructure could significantly degrade the fatigue lifetime. The single-phase model was developed to predict solder joint behavior using materials data for constitutive relation constants that could be determined through straightforward metallurgical experiments. Special thermomechanical fatigue tests were developed to give fundamental materials input to the models, and an in situ SEM thermomechanical fatigue test system was developed to characterize microstructural evolution and the mechanical behavior of solder joints during the test. A shear/torsion test sample was developed to impose strain in two different orientations. Materials constants were derived from these tests. The simulation results from the two-phase model showed good fit to the experimental test results.« less

Embryonic and postnatal telomere length decrease with ovulation order within clutches

PubMed Central

Noguera, José C.; Metcalfe, Neil B.; Reichert, Sophie; Monaghan, Pat

2016-01-01

Telomere length (TL) in early life has been found to be predictive of subsequent lifespan. Factors such as parental TL, parental age and environmental conditions during development have been shown to contribute to the observed variation in TL among individuals. One factor that has not hitherto been considered is ovulation order, although it is well established that the last hatched/born offspring in a brood or litter often show relatively poor subsequent performance. We examined the within- and across-clutch effect of ovulation order on TL in embryos of zebra finches experiencing the same controlled incubation conditions (N = 151), and tested whether any such ovulation order effects remained detectable in adults (N = 122). Irrespective of clutch and egg size, TL in early-stage embryos (72 h incubation) markedly decreased with within-clutch ovulation order; the difference in TL of first and last-laid embryos was equivalent to the average within-individual telomere loss over the entire period of nestling and juvenile life. This ovulation-order effect occurred only within but not across clutches, and was still evident in adults. Given that TL in early life predicts lifespan, our results suggest that parental effects on telomere length could contribute to the known poor performance of later-ovulated family members. PMID:27174767

A study of process parameters on workpiece anisotropy in the laser engineered net shaping (LENSTM) process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, Shubham; Rao, Balkrishna C.

2017-06-01

The process of laser engineered net shaping (LENSTM) is an additive manufacturing technique that employs the coaxial flow of metallic powders with a high-power laser to form a melt pool and the subsequent deposition of the specimen on a substrate. Although research done over the past decade on the LENSTM processing of alloys of steel, titanium, nickel and other metallic materials typically reports superior mechanical properties in as-deposited specimens, when compared to the bulk material, there is anisotropy in the mechanical properties of the melt deposit. The current study involves the development of a numerical model of the LENSTM process, using the principles of computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and the subsequent prediction of the volume fraction of equiaxed grains to predict process parameters required for the deposition of workpieces with isotropy in their properties. The numerical simulation is carried out on ANSYS-Fluent, whose data on thermal gradient are used to determine the volume fraction of the equiaxed grains present in the deposited specimen. This study has been validated against earlier efforts on the experimental studies of LENSTM for alloys of nickel. Besides being applicable to the wider family of metals and alloys, the results of this study will also facilitate effective process design to improve both product quality and productivity.

Toward a Mechanistic Understanding of Vertical Growth of van der Waals Stacked 2D Materials: A Multiscale Model and Experiments.

PubMed

Ye, Han; Zhou, Jiadong; Er, Dequan; Price, Christopher C; Yu, Zhongyuan; Liu, Yumin; Lowengrub, John; Lou, Jun; Liu, Zheng; Shenoy, Vivek B

2017-12-26

Vertical stacking of monolayers via van der Waals (vdW) interaction opens promising routes toward engineering physical properties of two-dimensional (2D) materials and designing atomically thin devices. However, due to the lack of mechanistic understanding, challenges remain in the controlled fabrication of these structures via scalable methods such as chemical vapor deposition (CVD) onto substrates. In this paper, we develop a general multiscale model to describe the size evolution of 2D layers and predict the necessary growth conditions for vertical (initial + subsequent layers) versus in-plane lateral (monolayer) growth. An analytic thermodynamic criterion is established for subsequent layer growth that depends on the sizes of both layers, the vdW interaction energies, and the edge energy of 2D layers. Considering the time-dependent growth process, we find that temperature and adatom flux from vapor are the primary criteria affecting the self-assembled growth. The proposed model clearly demonstrates the distinct roles of thermodynamic and kinetic mechanisms governing the final structure. Our model agrees with experimental observations of various monolayer and bilayer transition metal dichalcogenides grown by CVD and provides a predictive framework to guide the fabrication of vertically stacked 2D materials.

Disentangling the effects of low self-esteem and stressful events on depression: findings from three longitudinal studies.

PubMed

Orth, Ulrich; Robins, Richard W; Meier, Laurenz L

2009-08-01

Diathesis-stress models of depression suggest that low self-esteem and stressful events jointly influence the development of depressive affect. More specifically, the self-esteem buffering hypothesis states that, in the face of challenging life circumstances, individuals with low self-esteem are prone to depression because they lack sufficient coping resources, whereas those with high self-esteem are able to cope effectively and consequently avoid spiraling downward into depression. The authors used data from 3 longitudinal studies of adolescents and young adults, who were assessed 4 times over a 3-year period (Study 1; N = 359), 3 times over a 6-week period (Study 2; N = 249), and 4 times over a 6-year period (Study 3; N = 2,403). In all 3 studies, low self-esteem and stressful events independently predicted subsequent depression but did not interact in the prediction. Thus, the results did not support the self-esteem buffering hypothesis but suggest that low self-esteem and stressful events operate as independent risk factors for depression. In addition, the authors found evidence in all 3 studies that depression, but not low self-esteem, is reciprocally related to stressful events, suggesting that individuals high in depression are more inclined to subsequently experience stressful events.

Cognitive and emotional factors associated with elective breast augmentation among young women.

PubMed

Moser, Stephanie E; Aiken, Leona S

2011-01-01

The purpose of this research was to propose and evaluate a psychosocial model of young women's intentions to obtain breast implants and the preparatory steps taken towards having breast implant surgery. The model integrated anticipated regret, descriptive norms and image norms from the media into the theory of planned behaviour (TPB). Focus groups (n = 58) informed development of measures of outcome expectancies, preparatory steps and normative influence. The model was tested and replicated among two samples of young women who had ever considered getting breast implants (n = 200, n = 152). Intentions and preparatory steps served as outcomes. Model constructs and outcomes were initially assessed; outcomes were re-assessed 11 weeks later. Evaluative attitudes and anticipated regret predicted intentions; in turn, intentions, along with descriptive norms, predicted subsequent preparatory steps. Perceived risk (susceptibility, severity) of negative medical consequences of breast implants predicted anticipated regret, which predicted evaluative attitudes. Intentions and preparatory steps exhibited interplay over time. This research provides the first comprehensive model predicting intentions and preparatory steps towards breast augmentation surgery. It supports the addition of anticipated regret to the TPB and suggests mutual influence between intentions and preparatory steps towards a final behavioural outcome.

Transactional Associations Between Youths’ Responses to Peer Stress and Depression: The Moderating Roles of Sex and Stress Exposure

PubMed Central

Agoston, Anna Monica; Rudolph, Karen D.

2011-01-01

This study examined transactional associations between responses to peer stress and depression in youth. Specifically, it tested the hypotheses that (a) depression would predict fewer effortful responses and more involuntary, dysregulated responses to peer stress over time; and (b) fewer adaptive and more maladaptive responses would predict subsequent depression. Youth (M age = 12.41; SD = 1.19; 86 girls, 81 boys) and their maternal caregivers completed semi-structured interviews and questionnaires at three annual waves. Multi-group comparison path analyses were conducted to examine sex and stress-level differences in the proposed reciprocal-influence model. In girls and in youth exposed to high levels of peer stress, maladaptive stress responses predicted more depressive symptoms and adaptive stress responses predicted fewer depressive symptoms at each wave. These findings suggest the utility of preventive interventions for depression designed to enhance the quality of girls’ stress responses. In boys, depression predicted less adaptive and more maladaptive stress responses, but only at the second wave. These findings suggest that interventions designed to reduce boys’ depressive symptoms may help them develop more adaptive stress responses. PMID:20852929

Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome in Company Workers: Development of a Two-Step Screening Strategy with a New Questionnaire.

PubMed

Eijsvogel, Michiel M; Wiegersma, Sytske; Randerath, Winfried; Verbraecken, Johan; Wegter-Hilbers, Esther; van der Palen, Job

2016-04-15

To develop and evaluate a screening questionnaire and a two-step screening strategy for obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) in healthy workers. This is a cross-sectional study of 1,861 employees comprising healthy blue- and white-collar workers in two representative plants in the Netherlands from a worldwide consumer electronic company who were approached to participate. Employees were invited to complete various sleep questionnaires, and undergo separate single nasal flow recording and home polysomnography on two separate nights. Of the 1,861 employees, 249 provided informed consent and all nasal flow and polysomnography data were available from 176 (70.7%). OSAS was diagnosed in 65 (36.9%). A combination of age, absence of insomnia, witnessed breathing stops, and three-way scoring of the Berlin and STOPBANG questionnaires best predicted OSAS. Factor analysis identified a six-factor structure of the resulting new questionnaire: snoring, snoring severity, tiredness, witnessed apneas, sleep quality, and daytime well-being. Subsequently, some questions were removed, and the remaining questions were used to construct a new questionnaire. A scoring algorithm, computing individual probabilities of OSAS as high, intermediate, or low risk, was developed. Subsequently, the intermediate risk group was split into low and high probability for OSAS, based on nasal flow recording. This two-step approach showed a sensitivity of 63.1%, and a specificity of 90.1%. Specificity is important for low prevalence populations. A two-step screening strategy with a new questionnaire and subsequent nasal flow recording is a promising way to screen for OSAS in a healthy worker population. Development and validation of a screening instrument for obstructive sleep apnea syndrome in healthy workers. Netherlands Trial Register (www.trailregister.nl), number: NTR2675. © 2016 American Academy of Sleep Medicine.

Adolescent rats are resistant to the development of ethanol-induced chronic tolerance and ethanol-induced conditioned aversion.

PubMed

Pautassi, Ricardo Marcos; Godoy, Juan Carlos; Molina, Juan Carlos

2015-11-01

The analysis of chronic tolerance to ethanol in adult and adolescent rats has yielded mixed results. Tolerance to some effects of ethanol has been reported in adolescents, yet other studies found adults to exhibit greater tolerance than adolescents or comparable expression of the phenomena at both ages. Another unanswered question is how chronic ethanol exposure affects subsequent ethanol-mediated motivational learning at these ages. The present study examined the development of chronic tolerance to ethanol's hypothermic and motor stimulating effects, and subsequent acquisition of ethanol-mediated odor conditioning, in adolescent and adult male Wistar rats given every-other-day intragastric administrations of ethanol. Adolescent and adult rats exhibited lack of tolerance to the hypothermic effects of ethanol during an induction phase; whereas adults, but not adolescents, exhibited a trend towards a reduction in hypothermia at a challenge phase (Experiment 1). Adolescents, unlike adults, exhibited ethanol-induced motor activation after the first ethanol administration. Adults, but not adolescents, exhibited conditioned odor aversion by ethanol. Subsequent experiments conducted only in adolescents (Experiment 2, Experiment 3 and Experiment 4) manipulated the context, length and predictability of ethanol administration. These manipulations did not promote the expression of ethanol-induced tolerance. This study indicated that, when moderate ethanol doses are given every-other day for a relatively short period, adolescents are less likely than adults to develop chronic tolerance to ethanol-induced hypothermia. This resistance to tolerance development could limit long-term maintenance of ethanol intake. Adolescents, however, exhibited greater sensitivity than adults to the acute motor stimulating effects of ethanol and a blunted response to the aversive effects of ethanol. This pattern of response may put adolescents at risk for early initiation of ethanol intake. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Attachment comes of age: adolescents' narrative coherence and reflective functioning predict well-being in emerging adulthood.

PubMed

Borelli, Jessica L; Brugnera, Agostino; Zarbo, Cristina; Rabboni, Massimo; Bondi, Emi; Tasca, Giorgio A; Compare, Angelo

2018-06-04

This study investigated the effects of adolescents' attachment security and reflective functioning (RF) (assessed by the adult attachment interview [AAI]) in the prediction of well-being in adulthood. Adolescents (N = 79; M = 14.6 years old; SD = 3.5 years) completed the AAI at Time 1 (T1), which was subsequently coded for inferred attachment experiences, narrative coherence, and RF by three nonoverlapping teams of raters. Participants completed the Psychological General Well-being Index at T1 and 8 years later (Time 2, T2). Analyses showed that (a) both adolescent narrative coherence and RF were significant predictors of almost all indices of well-being at T2 in adulthood; (b) both narrative coherence and RF indirectly linked inferred loving parental care and T2 well-being; (c) when included in the same model, RF was a significant indirect effect linking inferred loving parental care and T2 well-being. These findings contribute to theory in suggesting that both RF and narrative coherence are predictive of subsequent psychological well-being and operate as links between inferred parental care and subsequent adjustment. Possible mechanisms underlying these findings are discussed.

Binary classification of items of interest in a repeatable process

DOEpatents

Abell, Jeffrey A.; Spicer, John Patrick; Wincek, Michael Anthony; Wang, Hui; Chakraborty, Debejyo

2014-06-24

A system includes host and learning machines in electrical communication with sensors positioned with respect to an item of interest, e.g., a weld, and memory. The host executes instructions from memory to predict a binary quality status of the item. The learning machine receives signals from the sensor(s), identifies candidate features, and extracts features from the candidates that are more predictive of the binary quality status relative to other candidate features. The learning machine maps the extracted features to a dimensional space that includes most of the items from a passing binary class and excludes all or most of the items from a failing binary class. The host also compares the received signals for a subsequent item of interest to the dimensional space to thereby predict, in real time, the binary quality status of the subsequent item of interest.

Adolescents’ Pregnancy Intentions, Wantedness, and Regret: Cross-Lagged Relations With Mental Health and Harsh Parenting

PubMed Central

East, Patricia L.; Chien, Nina C.; Barber, Jennifer S.

2011-01-01

The authors used cross-lagged analyses to examine the across-time influences on and consequences of adolescents’ pregnancy intentions, wantedness, and regret. One hundred pregnant Latina adolescents were studied during pregnancy and at 6 and 12 months postpartum. The results revealed 4 main findings: (a) similar to what has been found in adult women, adolescents’ lower prenatal pregnancy intendedness and wantedness predicted initial difficulties in parenting; (b) frequent depression symptoms predicted subsequent lower pregnancy intendedness and wantedness; (c) adolescents’ poor mental health and harsh parenting of their child predicted subsequent higher childbearing regret, and (d) high childbearing regret and parenting stress were reciprocally related across time. In addition, adolescents’ wantedness of their pregnancy declined prenatally to postbirth, and strong pregnancy intendedness and wantedness were not concurrently related to adolescents’ poor prenatal mental health. The findings reveal how adolescents’ thoughts and feelings about their pregnancies are influenced by and predictive of their mental health and parenting experiences. PMID:22544975

Open-Ended (Extended/Constructed) Response Questions as Predictors of Success on Subsequent State Mathematics Examination: The Influence of Mathematical Awareness and Conceptual Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gullie, Kathy A.

2011-01-01

This study investigated the predictive ability of students' responses to open-ended, constructed/extended questions in third and fourth grade mathematics content subcategories on subsequent fifth grade mathematics achievement proficiency levels. Open-ended, extended/constructed response questions reflected content as outlined by the National…

Early adolescent symptoms of social phobia prospectively predict alcohol use.

PubMed

Dahne, Jennifer; Banducci, Anne N; Kurdziel, Gretchen; MacPherson, Laura

2014-11-01

The current study examined whether social phobia (SP) symptoms in early adolescence prospectively predicted alcohol use through middle adolescence in a community sample of youth. Data from an ongoing longitudinal study (N = 277) of mechanisms of HIV-related risk behaviors in youth were used to assess the extent to which SP symptoms in early adolescence (mean [SD] age = 11.00 years [0.81]) would predict alcohol use across five annual assessment waves. Adolescents completed measures of SP symptoms, depressive symptoms, and alcohol use at each wave. Higher SP symptoms at baseline predicted higher average odds of alcohol consumption during subsequent waves but did not significantly predict an increase in the odds of alcohol use as a function of time. Within a lagged model, SP symptoms measured at a prior assessment point (1 year earlier) predicted greater odds of drinking alcohol at the following assessment point. Importantly, alcohol use did not significantly predict SP symptoms over time. These results suggest that early SP symptoms are an important risk factor for increased odds of subsequent alcohol use. The present findings highlight that elevated SP symptoms place adolescents at risk for early alcohol use. Early interventions targeting SP symptoms may be crucial for the prevention of problematic alcohol use in early to mid-adolescence. Implications for prevention and treatment approaches are discussed.

Maternal hemodynamics, fetal biometry and Dopplers in pregnancies followed up for suspected fetal growth restriction.

PubMed

Roberts, Llinos A; Ling, Hua Zen; Poon, Liona; Nicolaides, Kypros H; Kametas, Nikos A

2018-04-01

To assess whether in a cohort of patients with small for gestational age (SGA) foetuses with estimated fetal weight ≤10 th percentile, maternal hemodynamics, fetal biometry and Dopplers at presentation, can predict the subsequent development of abnormal fetal Dopplers or delivery with birthweight <3 rd percentile. The study population comprised of 86 singleton pregnancies with SGA fetuses presenting at a median gestational age of 32 (range 26-35) weeks. We measured maternal cardiac function with a non-invasive transthoracic bioreactance monitor (NICOM, Cheetah), mean arterial pressure, fetal biometry, umbilical artery (UA), middle cerebral artery (MCA) and uterine artery (UT) pulsatility index (PI) and the deepest vertical pool (DVP) of amniotic fluid. Z-scores of these variables were calculated based on reported reference ranges and the values were compared between those with evidence of abnormal fetal Dopplers at presentation (group 1), those that developed abnormal Dopplers in subsequent visits (group 2) and those who did not develop abnormal Dopplers throughout pregnancy (group 3). Abnormal fetal Dopplers were defined as UAPI >95 th percentile, or MCA PI <5 th percentile. Differences in measured variables at presentation were also compared between pregnancies delivering a baby with birthweight <3 rd and ≥3 rd percentile. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine significant predictors of birthweight <3 rd percentile and evolution from normal fetal Dopplers to abnormal fetal Dopplers in groups 2 and 3. In the study population 14 (16%) cases were in group 1, 19 (22%) in group 2 and 53 (62%) in group 3. The birthweight was <3 rd percentile in 39 (45%) cases and ≥3 rd percentile in 47 (55%). In the study groups, compared to normal populations, there was decreased cardiac output and stroke volume and increased peripheral vascular resistance and mean arterial pressure (MAP) and the deviations from normal were most marked in group 1. Pregnancies with a birthweight <3 rd , compared to those ≥3 rd percentile, had higher deviations from normal in fetal biometry, maternal cardiac output, stroke volume, heart rate and peripheral vascular resistance and UT-PI. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that in the prediction of birth weight ≤3 rd percentile, maternal hemodynamics provided significant improvement to the prediction provided by maternal demographics, fetal biometry and UT-PI, UA-PI and MCA-PI (difference between AUCs 0.18, 95% CI 0.06-0.29, p=0.002). In contrast, there was no significant independent contribution from maternal hemodynamics in the prediction of subsequent abnormal fetal Dopplers. In pregnancies with SGA fetuses there is decreased maternal cardiac output and stroke volume and increased peripheral vascular resistance and MAP and the deviations from normal are most marked in cases of redistribution in the fetal circulation and reduced amniotic fluid volume. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Development and Evaluation of a Mobile Personalized Blood Glucose Prediction System for Patients With Gestational Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Pustozerov, Evgenii; Popova, Polina; Tkachuk, Aleksandra; Bolotko, Yana; Yuldashev, Zafar; Grineva, Elena

2018-01-09

Personalized blood glucose (BG) prediction for diabetes patients is an important goal that is pursued by many researchers worldwide. Despite many proposals, only a few projects are dedicated to the development of complete recommender system infrastructures that incorporate BG prediction algorithms for diabetes patients. The development and implementation of such a system aided by mobile technology is of particular interest to patients with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), especially considering the significant importance of quickly achieving adequate BG control for these patients in a short period (ie, during pregnancy) and a typically higher acceptance rate for mobile health (mHealth) solutions for short- to midterm usage. This study was conducted with the objective of developing infrastructure comprising data processing algorithms, BG prediction models, and an appropriate mobile app for patients' electronic record management to guide BG prediction-based personalized recommendations for patients with GDM. A mobile app for electronic diary management was developed along with data exchange and continuous BG signal processing software. Both components were coupled to obtain the necessary data for use in the personalized BG prediction system. Necessary data on meals, BG measurements, and other events were collected via the implemented mobile app and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system processing software. These data were used to tune and evaluate the BG prediction model, which included an algorithm for dynamic coefficients tuning. In the clinical study, 62 participants (GDM: n=49; control: n=13) took part in a 1-week monitoring trial during which they used the mobile app to track their meals and self-measurements of BG and CGM system for continuous BG monitoring. The data on 909 food intakes and corresponding postprandial BG curves as well as the set of patients' characteristics (eg, glycated hemoglobin, body mass index [BMI], age, and lifestyle parameters) were selected as inputs for the BG prediction models. The prediction results by the models for BG levels 1 hour after food intake were root mean square error=0.87 mmol/L, mean absolute error=0.69 mmol/L, and mean absolute percentage error=12.8%, which correspond to an adequate prediction accuracy for BG control decisions. The mobile app for the collection and processing of relevant data, appropriate software for CGM system signals processing, and BG prediction models were developed for a recommender system. The developed system may help improve BG control in patients with GDM; this will be the subject of evaluation in a subsequent study. ©Evgenii Pustozerov, Polina Popova, Aleksandra Tkachuk, Yana Bolotko, Zafar Yuldashev, Elena Grineva. Originally published in JMIR Mhealth and Uhealth (http://mhealth.jmir.org), 09.01.2018.

Punishing an error improves learning: the influence of punishment magnitude on error-related neural activity and subsequent learning.

PubMed

Hester, Robert; Murphy, Kevin; Brown, Felicity L; Skilleter, Ashley J

2010-11-17

Punishing an error to shape subsequent performance is a major tenet of individual and societal level behavioral interventions. Recent work examining error-related neural activity has identified that the magnitude of activity in the posterior medial frontal cortex (pMFC) is predictive of learning from an error, whereby greater activity in this region predicts adaptive changes in future cognitive performance. It remains unclear how punishment influences error-related neural mechanisms to effect behavior change, particularly in key regions such as pMFC, which previous work has demonstrated to be insensitive to punishment. Using an associative learning task that provided monetary reward and punishment for recall performance, we observed that when recall errors were categorized by subsequent performance--whether the failure to accurately recall a number-location association was corrected at the next presentation of the same trial--the magnitude of error-related pMFC activity predicted future correction. However, the pMFC region was insensitive to the magnitude of punishment an error received and it was the left insula cortex that predicted learning from the most aversive outcomes. These findings add further evidence to the hypothesis that error-related pMFC activity may reflect more than a prediction error in representing the value of an outcome. The novel role identified here for the insular cortex in learning from punishment appears particularly compelling for our understanding of psychiatric and neurologic conditions that feature both insular cortex dysfunction and a diminished capacity for learning from negative feedback or punishment.

The Aeroacoustics of Turbulent Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldstein, M. E.

2008-01-01

Aerodynamic noise prediction has been an important and challenging research area since James Lighthill first introduced his Acoustic Analogy Approach over fifty years ago. This talk attempts to provide a unified framework for the subsequent theoretical developments in this field. It assumes that there is no single approach that is optimal in all situations and uses the framework as a basis for discussing the strengths weaknesses of the various approaches to this topic. But the emphasis here will be on the important problem of predicting the noise from high speed air jets. Specific results will presented for round jets in the 0.5 to 1.4 Mach number range and compared with experimental data taken on the Glenn SHAR rig. It is demonstrated that nonparallel mean flow effects play an important role in predicting the noise at the supersonic Mach numbers. The results explain the failure of previous attempts based on the parallel flow Lilley model (which has served as the foundation for most jet noise analyses during past two decades).

Freeze-cast alumina pore networks: Effects of freezing conditions and dispersion medium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, S. M.; Xiao, X.; Faber, K. T.

Alumina ceramics were freeze-cast from water- and camphene-based slurries under varying freezing conditions and examined using X-ray computed tomography (XCT). Pore network characteristics, i.e., porosity, pore size, geometric surface area, and tortuosity, were measured from XCT reconstructions and the data were used to develop a model to predict feature size from processing conditions. Classical solidification theory was used to examine relationships between pore size, temperature gradients, and freezing front velocity. Freezing front velocity was subsequently predicted from casting conditions via the two-phase Stefan problem. Resulting models for water-based samples agreed with solidification-based theories predicting lamellar spacing of binary eutectic alloys,more » and models for camphene-based samples concurred with those for dendritic growth. Relationships between freezing conditions and geometric surface area were also modeled by considering the inverse relationship between pore size and surface area. Tortuosity was determined to be dependent primarily on the type of dispersion medium. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.« less

Analysis of Neuronal Spike Trains, Deconstructed

PubMed Central

Aljadeff, Johnatan; Lansdell, Benjamin J.; Fairhall, Adrienne L.; Kleinfeld, David

2016-01-01

As information flows through the brain, neuronal firing progresses from encoding the world as sensed by the animal to driving the motor output of subsequent behavior. One of the more tractable goals of quantitative neuroscience is to develop predictive models that relate the sensory or motor streams with neuronal firing. Here we review and contrast analytical tools used to accomplish this task. We focus on classes of models in which the external variable is compared with one or more feature vectors to extract a low-dimensional representation, the history of spiking and other variables are potentially incorporated, and these factors are nonlinearly transformed to predict the occurrences of spikes. We illustrate these techniques in application to datasets of different degrees of complexity. In particular, we address the fitting of models in the presence of strong correlations in the external variable, as occurs in natural sensory stimuli and in movement. Spectral correlation between predicted and measured spike trains is introduced to contrast the relative success of different methods. PMID:27477016

Feasibility of Predicting MCI/AD Using Neuropsychological Tests and Serum β-Amyloid

PubMed Central

Luis, Cheryl A.; Abdullah, Laila; Ait-Ghezala, Ghania; Mouzon, Benoit; Keegan, Andrew P.; Crawford, Fiona; Mullan, Michael

2011-01-01

We examined the usefulness of brief neuropsychological tests and serum Aβ as a predictive test for detecting MCI/AD in older adults. Serum Aβ levels were measured from 208 subjects who were cognitively normal at enrollment and blood draw. Twenty-eight of the subjects subsequently developed MCI (n = 18) or AD (n = 10) over the follow-up period. Baseline measures of global cognition, memory, language fluency, and serum Aβ1–42 and the ratio of serum Aβ1–42/Aβ1–40 were significant predictors for future MCI/AD using Cox regression with demographic variables, APOE ε4, vascular risk factors, and specific medication as covariates. An optimal sensitivity of 85.2% and specificity of 86.5% for predicting MCI/AD was achieved using ROC analyses. Brief neuropsychological tests and measurements of Aβ1–42 obtained via blood warrants further study as a practical and cost effective method for wide-scale screening for identifying older adults who may be at-risk for pathological cognitive decline. PMID:21660215

Prediction of Breeding Values for Dairy Cattle Using Artificial Neural Networks and Neuro-Fuzzy Systems

PubMed Central

Shahinfar, Saleh; Mehrabani-Yeganeh, Hassan; Lucas, Caro; Kalhor, Ahmad; Kazemian, Majid; Weigel, Kent A.

2012-01-01

Developing machine learning and soft computing techniques has provided many opportunities for researchers to establish new analytical methods in different areas of science. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential of two types of intelligent learning methods, artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy systems, in order to estimate breeding values (EBV) of Iranian dairy cattle. Initially, the breeding values of lactating Holstein cows for milk and fat yield were estimated using conventional best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) with an animal model. Once that was established, a multilayer perceptron was used to build ANN to predict breeding values from the performance data of selection candidates. Subsequently, fuzzy logic was used to form an NFS, a hybrid intelligent system that was implemented via a local linear model tree algorithm. For milk yield the correlations between EBV and EBV predicted by the ANN and NFS were 0.92 and 0.93, respectively. Corresponding correlations for fat yield were 0.93 and 0.93, respectively. Correlations between multitrait predictions of EBVs for milk and fat yield when predicted simultaneously by ANN were 0.93 and 0.93, respectively, whereas corresponding correlations with reference EBV for multitrait NFS were 0.94 and 0.95, respectively, for milk and fat production. PMID:22991575

Effect of symptom-based risk stratification on the costs of managing patients with chronic rhinosinusitis symptoms.

PubMed

Tan, Bruce K; Lu, Guanning; Kwasny, Mary J; Hsueh, Wayne D; Shintani-Smith, Stephanie; Conley, David B; Chandra, Rakesh K; Kern, Robert C; Leung, Randy

2013-11-01

Current symptom criteria poorly predict a diagnosis of chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) resulting in excessive treatment of patients with presumed CRS. The objective of this study was analyze the positive predictive value of individual symptoms, or symptoms in combination, in patients with CRS symptoms and examine the costs of the subsequent diagnostic algorithm using a decision tree-based cost analysis. We analyzed previously collected patient-reported symptoms from a cross-sectional study of patients who had received a computed tomography (CT) scan of their sinuses at a tertiary care otolaryngology clinic for evaluation of CRS symptoms to calculate the positive predictive value of individual symptoms. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis then optimized combinations of symptoms and thresholds to identify CRS patients. The calculated positive predictive values were applied to a previously developed decision tree that compared an upfront CT (uCT) algorithm against an empiric medical therapy (EMT) algorithm with further analysis that considered the availability of point of care (POC) imaging. The positive predictive value of individual symptoms ranged from 0.21 for patients reporting forehead pain and to 0.69 for patients reporting hyposmia. The CART model constructed a dichotomous model based on forehead pain, maxillary pain, hyposmia, nasal discharge, and facial pain (C-statistic 0.83). If POC CT were available, median costs ($64-$415) favored using the upfront CT for all individual symptoms. If POC CT was unavailable, median costs favored uCT for most symptoms except intercanthal pain (-$15), hyposmia (-$100), and discolored nasal discharge (-$24), although these symptoms became equivocal on cost sensitivity analysis. The three-tiered CART model could subcategorize patients into tiers where uCT was always favorable (median costs: $332-$504) and others for which EMT was always favorable (median costs -$121 to -$275). The uCT algorithm was always more costly if the nasal endoscopy was positive. Among patients with classic CRS symptoms, the frequency of individual symptoms varied the likelihood of a CRS diagnosis marginally. Only hyposmia, the absence of facial pain, and discolored discharge sufficiently increased the likelihood of diagnosis to potentially make EMT less costly. The development of an evidence-based, multisymptom-based risk stratification model could substantially affect the management costs of the subsequent diagnostic algorithm. © 2013 ARS-AAOA, LLC.

New Tool Released for Engine-Airframe Blade-Out Structural Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawrence, Charles

2004-01-01

Researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center have enhanced a general-purpose finite element code, NASTRAN, for engine-airframe structural simulations during steady-state and transient operating conditions. For steady-state simulations, the code can predict critical operating speeds, natural modes of vibration, and forced response (e.g., cabin noise and component fatigue). The code can be used to perform static analysis to predict engine-airframe response and component stresses due to maneuver loads. For transient response, the simulation code can be used to predict response due to bladeoff events and subsequent engine shutdown and windmilling conditions. In addition, the code can be used as a pretest analysis tool to predict the results of the bladeout test required for FAA certification of new and derivative aircraft engines. Before the present analysis code was developed, all the major aircraft engine and airframe manufacturers in the United States and overseas were performing similar types of analyses to ensure the structural integrity of engine-airframe systems. Although there were many similarities among the analysis procedures, each manufacturer was developing and maintaining its own structural analysis capabilities independently. This situation led to high software development and maintenance costs, complications with manufacturers exchanging models and results, and limitations in predicting the structural response to the desired degree of accuracy. An industry-NASA team was formed to overcome these problems by developing a common analysis tool that would satisfy all the structural analysis needs of the industry and that would be available and supported by a commercial software vendor so that the team members would be relieved of maintenance and development responsibilities. Input from all the team members was used to ensure that everyone's requirements were satisfied and that the best technology was incorporated into the code. Furthermore, because the code would be distributed by a commercial software vendor, it would be more readily available to engine and airframe manufacturers, as well as to nonaircraft companies that did not previously have access to this capability.

p16 Expression and Biological Behavior of Flat Vulvar Low-grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesions (LSIL).

PubMed

Lewis, Natasha; Blanco, Luis Z; Maniar, Kruti P

2017-09-01

Flat low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) of the vulva [vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN) 1, flat condyloma] is an uncommon entity with poorly understood biological behavior. We aimed to determine the risk of subsequent vulvar high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) or carcinoma following a diagnosis of vulvar LSIL/VIN 1, as well as the frequency and predictive value of p16 immunohistochemical expression in this setting. Of the 51 included cases, p16 positivity (diffuse block staining) was identified in 2 (4%). Follow-up data were available in 34 cases, of which 2 (5.9%) developed subsequent vulvar HSIL, including 1/2 p16-positive cases and 1/32 p16-negative cases. The difference in HSIL frequency between p16-positive and p16-negative cases was not statistically significant (P=0.116 for VIN 2+, P=0.061 for VIN 3). For the 18 patients with treatment information available, 10 (56%) received medical or surgical treatment after biopsy. Our results indicate that flat vulvar LSIL is infrequently p16 positive, and that few patients with vulvar LSIL develop subsequent vulvar HSIL. Despite the use of destructive treatment in some cases, the data provide support for the nonpreneoplastic nature of the entity. Immunohistochemical expression of p16 may not be a predictor of HSIL risk in vulvar LSIL, although this result may also be related to the very low rates of both p16 positivity and subsequent vulvar HSIL in our sample. It is clear that vulvar LSIL is distinct from LSIL in other lower anogenital sites in terms of its behavior and p16 expression frequency.

The Association Between Urine Output, Creatinine Elevation, and Death.

PubMed

Engoren, Milo; Maile, Michael D; Heung, Michael; Jewell, Elizabeth S; Vahabzadeh, Christie; Haft, Jonathan W; Kheterpal, Sachin

2017-04-01

Acute kidney injury can be defined by a fall in urine output, and urine output criteria may be more sensitive in identifying acute kidney injury than traditional serum creatinine criteria. However, as pointed out in the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcome guidelines, the association of urine output with subsequent creatinine elevations and death is poorly characterized. The purpose of this study was to determine what degrees of reduced urine output are associated with subsequent creatinine elevation and death. This was a retrospective cohort study of adult patients (age ≥18 years) cared for in a cardiovascular intensive care unit after undergoing cardiac operations in a tertiary care university medical center. All adult patients who underwent cardiac operations and were not receiving dialysis preoperatively were studied. The development of acute kidney injury was defined as an increase in creatinine of more than 0.3 mg/dL or by more than 50% above baseline by postoperative day 3. Acute kidney injury developed in 1,061 of 4,195 patients (25%). Urine output had moderate discrimination in predicting subsequent acute kidney injury (C statistic = .637 ± .054). Lower urine output and longer duration of low urine output were associated with greater odds of developing acute kidney injury and death. We found that there is similar accuracy in using urine output corrected for actual, ideal, or adjusted weight to discriminate future acute kidney injury by creatinine elevation and recommend using actual weight for its simplicity. We also found that low urine output is associated with subsequent acute kidney injury and that the association is greater for lower urine output and for low urine output of longer durations. Low urine output (<0.2 mL · kg -1 · h -1 ), even in the absence of acute kidney injury by creatinine elevation, is independently associated with mortality. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developing leading indicators from OHS management audit data: Determining the measurement properties of audit data from the field.

PubMed

Robson, Lynda S; Ibrahim, Selahadin; Hogg-Johnson, Sheilah; Steenstra, Ivan A; Van Eerd, Dwayne; Amick, Benjamin C

2017-06-01

OHS management audits are one means of obtaining data that may serve as leading indicators. The measurement properties of such data are therefore important. This study used data from Workwell audit program in Ontario, a Canadian province. The audit instrument consisted of 122 items related to 17 OHS management elements. The study sought answers regarding (a) the ability of audit-based scores to predict workers' compensation claims outcomes, (b) structural characteristics of the data in relation to the organization of the audit instrument, and (c) internal consistency of items within audit elements. The sample consisted of audit and claims data from 1240 unique firms that had completed one or two OHS management audits during 2007-2010. Predictors derived from the audit results were used in multivariable negative binomial regression modeling of workers' compensation claims outcomes. Confirmatory factor analyses were used to examine the instrument's structural characteristics. Kuder-Richardson coefficients of internal consistency were calculated for each audit element. The ability of audit scores to predict subsequent claims data could not be established. Factor analysis supported the audit instrument's element-based structure. KR-20 values were high (≥0.83). The Workwell audit data display structural validity and high internal consistency, but not, to date, construct validity, since the audit scores are generally not predictive of subsequent firm claim experience. Audit scores should not be treated as leading indicators of workplace OHS performance without supporting empirical data. Analyses of the measurement properties of audit data can inform decisionmakers about the operation of an audit program, possible future directions in audit instrument development, and the appropriate use of audit data. In particular, decision-makers should be cautious in their use of audit scores as leading indicators, in the absence of supporting empirical data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

A two-stage predictive model to simultaneous control of trihalomethanes in water treatment plants and distribution systems: adaptability to treatment processes.

PubMed

Domínguez-Tello, Antonio; Arias-Borrego, Ana; García-Barrera, Tamara; Gómez-Ariza, José Luis

2017-10-01

The trihalomethanes (TTHMs) and others disinfection by-products (DBPs) are formed in drinking water by the reaction of chlorine with organic precursors contained in the source water, in two consecutive and linked stages, that starts at the treatment plant and continues in second stage along the distribution system (DS) by reaction of residual chlorine with organic precursors not removed. Following this approach, this study aimed at developing a two-stage empirical model for predicting the formation of TTHMs in the water treatment plant and subsequently their evolution along the water distribution system (WDS). The aim of the two-stage model was to improve the predictive capability for a wide range of scenarios of water treatments and distribution systems. The two-stage model was developed using multiple regression analysis from a database (January 2007 to July 2012) using three different treatment processes (conventional and advanced) in the water supply system of Aljaraque area (southwest of Spain). Then, the new model was validated using a recent database from the same water supply system (January 2011 to May 2015). The validation results indicated no significant difference in the predictive and observed values of TTHM (R 2 0.874, analytical variance <17%). The new model was applied to three different supply systems with different treatment processes and different characteristics. Acceptable predictions were obtained in the three distribution systems studied, proving the adaptability of the new model to the boundary conditions. Finally the predictive capability of the new model was compared with 17 other models selected from the literature, showing satisfactory results prediction and excellent adaptability to treatment processes.

Rapid activity prediction of HIV-1 integrase inhibitors: harnessing docking energetic components for empirical scoring by chemometric and artificial neural network approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thangsunan, Patcharapong; Kittiwachana, Sila; Meepowpan, Puttinan; Kungwan, Nawee; Prangkio, Panchika; Hannongbua, Supa; Suree, Nuttee

2016-06-01

Improving performance of scoring functions for drug docking simulations is a challenging task in the modern discovery pipeline. Among various ways to enhance the efficiency of scoring function, tuning of energetic component approach is an attractive option that provides better predictions. Herein we present the first development of rapid and simple tuning models for predicting and scoring inhibitory activity of investigated ligands docked into catalytic core domain structures of HIV-1 integrase (IN) enzyme. We developed the models using all energetic terms obtained from flexible ligand-rigid receptor dockings by AutoDock4, followed by a data analysis using either partial least squares (PLS) or self-organizing maps (SOMs). The models were established using 66 and 64 ligands of mercaptobenzenesulfonamides for the PLS-based and the SOMs-based inhibitory activity predictions, respectively. The models were then evaluated for their predictability quality using closely related test compounds, as well as five different unrelated inhibitor test sets. Weighting constants for each energy term were also optimized, thus customizing the scoring function for this specific target protein. Root-mean-square error (RMSE) values between the predicted and the experimental inhibitory activities were determined to be <1 (i.e. within a magnitude of a single log scale of actual IC50 values). Hence, we propose that, as a pre-functional assay screening step, AutoDock4 docking in combination with these subsequent rapid weighted energy tuning methods via PLS and SOMs analyses is a viable approach to predict the potential inhibitory activity and to discriminate among small drug-like molecules to target a specific protein of interest.

Prediction of android and gynoid body adiposity via a three-dimensional stereovision body imaging system and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry

PubMed Central

Lee, Jane J.; Freeland-Graves, Jeanne H.; Pepper, M. Reese; Stanforth, Philip R.; Xu, Bugao

2017-01-01

Objective Current methods for measuring regional body fat are expensive and inconvenient compared to the relative cost-effectiveness and ease-of-use of a stereovision body imaging (SBI) system. The primary goal of this research is to develop prediction models for android and gynoid fat by body measurements assessed via SBI and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Subsequently, mathematical equations for prediction of total and regional (trunk, leg) body adiposity were established via parameters measured by SBI and DXA. Methods A total of 121 participants were randomly assigned into primary and cross-validation groups. Body measurements were obtained via traditional anthropometrics, SBI, and DXA. Multiple regression analysis was conducted to develop mathematical equations by demographics and SBI assessed body measurements as independent variables and body adiposity (fat mass and percent fat) as dependent variables. The validity of the prediction models was evaluated by a split sample method and Bland-Altman analysis. Results The R2 of the prediction equations for fat mass and percent body fat were 93.2% and 76.4% for android, and 91.4% and 66.5% for gynoid, respectively. The limits of agreement for the fat mass and percent fat were − 0.06 ± 0.87 kg and − 0.11 ± 1.97 % for android and − 0.04 ± 1.58 kg and − 0.19 ± 4.27 % for gynoid. Prediction values for fat mass and percent fat were 94.6% and 88.9% for total body, 93.9% and 71.0% for trunk, and 92.4% and 64.1% for leg, respectively. Conclusions The three-dimensional (3D) SBI produces reliable parameters that can predict android and gynoid, as well as total and regional (trunk, leg) fat mass. PMID:25915106

Prediction of Android and Gynoid Body Adiposity via a Three-dimensional Stereovision Body Imaging System and Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry.

PubMed

Lee, Jane J; Freeland-Graves, Jeanne H; Pepper, M Reese; Stanforth, Philip R; Xu, Bugao

2015-01-01

Current methods for measuring regional body fat are expensive and inconvenient compared to the relative cost-effectiveness and ease of use of a stereovision body imaging (SBI) system. The primary goal of this research is to develop prediction models for android and gynoid fat by body measurements assessed via SBI and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Subsequently, mathematical equations for prediction of total and regional (trunk, leg) body adiposity were established via parameters measured by SBI and DXA. A total of 121 participants were randomly assigned into primary and cross-validation groups. Body measurements were obtained via traditional anthropometrics, SBI, and DXA. Multiple regression analysis was conducted to develop mathematical equations by demographics and SBI assessed body measurements as independent variables and body adiposity (fat mass and percentage fat) as dependent variables. The validity of the prediction models was evaluated by a split sample method and Bland-Altman analysis. The R(2) of the prediction equations for fat mass and percentage body fat were 93.2% and 76.4% for android and 91.4% and 66.5% for gynoid, respectively. The limits of agreement for the fat mass and percentage fat were -0.06 ± 0.87 kg and -0.11% ± 1.97% for android and -0.04 ± 1.58 kg and -0.19% ± 4.27% for gynoid. Prediction values for fat mass and percentage fat were 94.6% and 88.9% for total body, 93.9% and 71.0% for trunk, and 92.4% and 64.1% for leg, respectively. The three-dimensional (3D) SBI produces reliable parameters that can predict android and gynoid as well as total and regional (trunk, leg) fat mass.

Landslide susceptibility assesssment in the Uttarakhand area (India) using GIS: a comparison study of prediction capability of naïve bayes, multilayer perceptron neural networks, and functional trees methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Binh Thai; Tien Bui, Dieu; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Indra, Prakash; Dholakia, M. B.

2017-04-01

The objective of this study is to make a comparison of the prediction performance of three techniques, Functional Trees (FT), Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLP Neural Nets), and Naïve Bayes (NB) for landslide susceptibility assessment at the Uttarakhand Area (India). Firstly, a landslide inventory map with 430 landslide locations in the study area was constructed from various sources. Landslide locations were then randomly split into two parts (i) 70 % landslide locations being used for training models (ii) 30 % landslide locations being employed for validation process. Secondly, a total of eleven landslide conditioning factors including slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, curvature, lithology, soil, land cover, distance to roads, distance to lineaments, distance to rivers, and rainfall were used in the analysis to elucidate the spatial relationship between these factors and landslide occurrences. Feature selection of Linear Support Vector Machine (LSVM) algorithm was employed to assess the prediction capability of these conditioning factors on landslide models. Subsequently, the NB, MLP Neural Nets, and FT models were constructed using training dataset. Finally, success rate and predictive rate curves were employed to validate and compare the predictive capability of three used models. Overall, all the three models performed very well for landslide susceptibility assessment. Out of these models, the MLP Neural Nets and the FT models had almost the same predictive capability whereas the MLP Neural Nets (AUC = 0.850) was slightly better than the FT model (AUC = 0.849). The NB model (AUC = 0.838) had the lowest predictive capability compared to other models. Landslide susceptibility maps were final developed using these three models. These maps would be helpful to planners and engineers for the development activities and land-use planning.

Do positive or negative stressful events predict the development of new brain lesions in people with Multiple Sclerosis?

PubMed Central

Burns, Michelle Nicole; Nawacki, Ewa; Kwasny, Mary J.; Pelletier, Daniel; Mohr, David C.

2014-01-01

Background Stressful life events have long been suspected to contribute to multiple sclerosis (MS) disease activity. The few studies examining the relationship between stressful events and neuroimaging markers have been small and inconsistent. This study examined whether different types of stressful events and perceived stress could predict development of brain lesions. Methods This was a secondary analysis of 121 patients with MS followed for 48 weeks during a randomized controlled trial comparing Stress Management Therapy for MS to a waitlist control. Patients underwent MRI’s every 8 weeks. Monthly, patients completed an interview measure assessing stressful life events, and self-report measures of perceived stress, anxiety, and depressive symptoms, which were used to predict the presence of gadolinium enhancing (Gd+) and T2 lesions on MRI’s 29–62 days later. Participants classified stressful events as positive or negative. Negative events were considered “major” if they involved physical threat or threat to the patient’s family structure, and “moderate” otherwise. Results Positive stressful events predicted decreased risk for subsequent Gd+ lesions in the control group (OR=.53 for each additional positive stressful event, 95% CI=.30–.91) and less risk for new or enlarging T2 lesions regardless of group assignment (OR=.74, 95% CI=.55–.99). Across groups, major negative stressful events predicted Gd+ lesions (OR=1.77, 95% CI=1.18–2.64) and new or enlarging T2 lesions (OR=1.57, 95% CI=1.11–2.23), while moderate negative stressful events, perceived stress, anxiety, and depressive symptoms did not. Conclusions Major negative stressful events predict increased risk for Gd+ and T2 lesions, while positive stressful events predict decreased risk. PMID:23680407

Determination of the optimal training principle and input variables in artificial neural network model for the biweekly chlorophyll-a prediction: a case study of the Yuqiao Reservoir, China.

PubMed

Liu, Yu; Xi, Du-Gang; Li, Zhao-Liang

2015-01-01

Predicting the levels of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is a vital component of water quality management, which ensures that urban drinking water is safe from harmful algal blooms. This study developed a model to predict Chl-a levels in the Yuqiao Reservoir (Tianjin, China) biweekly using water quality and meteorological data from 1999-2012. First, six artificial neural networks (ANNs) and two non-ANN methods (principal component analysis and the support vector regression model) were compared to determine the appropriate training principle. Subsequently, three predictors with different input variables were developed to examine the feasibility of incorporating meteorological factors into Chl-a prediction, which usually only uses water quality data. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed to examine how the Chl-a predictor reacts to changes in input variables. The results were as follows: first, ANN is a powerful predictive alternative to the traditional modeling techniques used for Chl-a prediction. The back program (BP) model yields slightly better results than all other ANNs, with the normalized mean square error (NMSE), the correlation coefficient (Corr), and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) at 0.003 mg/l, 0.880 and 0.754, respectively, in the testing period. Second, the incorporation of meteorological data greatly improved Chl-a prediction compared to models solely using water quality factors or meteorological data; the correlation coefficient increased from 0.574-0.686 to 0.880 when meteorological data were included. Finally, the Chl-a predictor is more sensitive to air pressure and pH compared to other water quality and meteorological variables.

Do levels of immunoglobulin G antibodies to foods predict the development of immunoglobulin E antibodies to cat, dog and/or mite?

PubMed

Eysink, P E D; Bindels, P J E; Stapel, S O; Bottema, B J A M; Van Der Zee, J S; Aalberse, R C

2002-04-01

In children at high risk of inhalation allergy, food sensitization is associated with an increased risk for sensitization to inhalant allergens. Furthermore, this association was also found in a cross-sectional study. To examine in a prospective study, whether levels of IgG to foods (i.e. mixture of wheat and rice, mixture of soy bean and peanut, egg white, cow's milk, meat, orange and potato) indicate an increased risk for the future development of IgE antibodies to inhalant allergens in a low-risk population and whether they can be used as predictors of the subsequent development of IgE antibodies in young, initially IgE-negative children. Coughing children, aged 1-5, visiting their GPs, were tested for IgE antibodies to mite, dog and cat (RAST) and IgG (ELISA) to foods. All IgE-negative children were retested for IgE antibodies after two years. The IgG results (66 percentiles) of the first blood sample were compared to the RAST-scores of the second blood sample. After two years, 51 out of 397 (12.8%) originally IgE-negative children, had become IgE-positive for cat, dog and/or mite. An increased IgG antibody level to wheat-rice (OR = 2.2) and to orange (OR = 2.0) indicated an increased risk of developing IgE to cat, dog or mite allergens. In addition to IgG to a mixture of wheat-rice and orange; total IgE, breastfeeding, eczema as a baby and age were the most important predictors for the subsequent development of IgE to inhalant allergens. An increased IgG antibody level to a mixture of wheat-rice or orange, indicates an increased risk of developing IgE to cat, dog or mite allergens. This indicates that excessive activity of the mucosal immune system is present before IgE antibodies to airborne allergens can be demonstrated. Nevertheless, IgG to foods is not very helpful (with a positive predictive value of 16.5%, and negative predictive value of 90.6%) in identifying individual children at risk in clinical practice. However, besides other risk factors, IgG to wheat-rice and to orange could be useful as a screening test for studies in the early identification, i.e. before IgE antibodies can be detected, of children with an increased risk of developing IgE antibodies in the future.

Integrated Computational Approach for Virtual Hit Identification against Ebola Viral Proteins VP35 and VP40.

PubMed

Mirza, Muhammad Usman; Ikram, Nazia

2016-10-26

The Ebola virus (EBOV) has been recognised for nearly 40 years, with the most recent EBOV outbreak being in West Africa, where it created a humanitarian crisis. Mortalities reported up to 30 March 2016 totalled 11,307. However, up until now, EBOV drugs have been far from achieving regulatory (FDA) approval. It is therefore essential to identify parent compounds that have the potential to be developed into effective drugs. Studies on Ebola viral proteins have shown that some can elicit an immunological response in mice, and these are now considered essential components of a vaccine designed to protect against Ebola haemorrhagic fever. The current study focuses on chemoinformatic approaches to identify virtual hits against Ebola viral proteins (VP35 and VP40), including protein binding site prediction, drug-likeness, pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties, metabolic site prediction, and molecular docking. Retrospective validation was performed using a database of non-active compounds, and early enrichment of EBOV actives at different false positive rates was calculated. Homology modelling and subsequent superimposition of binding site residues on other strains of EBOV were carried out to check residual conformations, and hence to confirm the efficacy of potential compounds. As a mechanism for artefactual inhibition of proteins through non-specific compounds, virtual hits were assessed for their aggregator potential compared with previously reported aggregators. These systematic studies have indicated that a few compounds may be effective inhibitors of EBOV replication and therefore might have the potential to be developed as anti-EBOV drugs after subsequent testing and validation in experiments in vivo.

The Role of Stress Exposure and Family Functioning in Internalizing Outcomes of Urban Families

PubMed Central

Henry, David B.; Tolan, Patrick H.; Strachan, Martha K.

2013-01-01

Although research suggests that stress exposure and family functioning are associated with internalizing problems in adolescents and caregivers, surprisingly few studies have investigated the mechanisms that underlie this association. To determine whether family functioning buffers the development of internalizing problems in stress-exposed families, we assessed the relation between stress exposure, family functioning, and internalizing symptoms among a large sample of inner-city male youth and their caregivers living in poverty across five waves of data collection. We hypothesized that stress exposure and family functioning would predict development of subsequent youth and caregiver internalizing problems and that family functioning would moderate this relation, with higher functioning families demonstrating greater resiliency to stress exposure. We used a longitudinal, prospective design to evaluate whether family functioning (assessed at waves one through four) activated or buffered the effects of stress exposure (assessed at wave one) on subsequent internalizing symptoms (assessed at waves four and five). Stress from Developmental Transitions and family functioning were significant predictors of depressive symptoms and anxiety in youth; however, family functioning did not moderate the relation. Family functioning mediated the relation between stress from Daily Hassles and internalizing outcomes suggesting that poor parenting practices, low structure, and low emotional cohesion activate depression and anxiety in youth exposed to chronic and frequent everyday stressors. Surprisingly, only family functioning predicted depressive symptoms in caregivers. Results validate the use of a comprehensive, multi-informant assessment of stress when investigating internalizing outcomes in youth and support using family-based interventions in the treatment and prevention of internalizing. PMID:25601821

The Role of Stress Exposure and Family Functioning in Internalizing Outcomes of Urban Families.

PubMed

Sheidow, Ashli J; Henry, David B; Tolan, Patrick H; Strachan, Martha K

2014-11-01

Although research suggests that stress exposure and family functioning are associated with internalizing problems in adolescents and caregivers, surprisingly few studies have investigated the mechanisms that underlie this association. To determine whether family functioning buffers the development of internalizing problems in stress-exposed families, we assessed the relation between stress exposure, family functioning, and internalizing symptoms among a large sample of inner-city male youth and their caregivers living in poverty across five waves of data collection. We hypothesized that stress exposure and family functioning would predict development of subsequent youth and caregiver internalizing problems and that family functioning would moderate this relation, with higher functioning families demonstrating greater resiliency to stress exposure. We used a longitudinal, prospective design to evaluate whether family functioning (assessed at waves one through four) activated or buffered the effects of stress exposure (assessed at wave one) on subsequent internalizing symptoms (assessed at waves four and five). Stress from Developmental Transitions and family functioning were significant predictors of depressive symptoms and anxiety in youth; however, family functioning did not moderate the relation. Family functioning mediated the relation between stress from Daily Hassles and internalizing outcomes suggesting that poor parenting practices, low structure, and low emotional cohesion activate depression and anxiety in youth exposed to chronic and frequent everyday stressors. Surprisingly, only family functioning predicted depressive symptoms in caregivers. Results validate the use of a comprehensive, multi-informant assessment of stress when investigating internalizing outcomes in youth and support using family-based interventions in the treatment and prevention of internalizing.

Serum TSH within the reference range as a predictor of future hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism: 11-year follow-up of the HUNT Study in Norway.

PubMed

Åsvold, Bjørn O; Vatten, Lars J; Midthjell, Kristian; Bjøro, Trine

2012-01-01

Serum TSH in the upper part of the reference range may sometimes be a response to autoimmune thyroiditis in early stage and may therefore predict future hypothyroidism. Conversely, relatively low serum TSH could predict future hyperthyroidism. The objective of the study was to assess TSH within the reference range and subsequent risk of hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism. This was a prospective population-based study with linkage to the Norwegian Prescription Database. A total of 10,083 women and 5,023 men without previous thyroid disease who had a baseline TSH of 0.20-4.5 mU/liter and who participated at a follow-up examination 11 yr later. Predicted probabilities of developing hypothyroidism or hyperthyroidism during follow-up, by categories of baseline TSH, were estimated. During 11 yr of follow-up, 3.5% of women and 1.3% of men developed hypothyroidism, and 1.1% of women and 0.6% of men developed hyperthyroidism. In both sexes, the baseline TSH was positively associated with the risk of subsequent hypothyroidism. The risk increased gradually from TSH of 0.50-1.4 mU/liter [women, 1.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.8-1.4; men, 0.3%, 95% CI 0.1-0.6] to a TSH of 4.0-4.5 mU/liter (women, 31.5%, 95% CI 24.6-39.3; men, 14.7%, 95% CI 7.7-26.2). The risk of hyperthyroidism was higher in women with a baseline TSH of 0.20-0.49 mU/liter (3.9%, 95% CI 1.8-8.4) than in women with a TSH of 0.50-0.99 mU/liter (1.4%, 95% CI 0.9-2.1) or higher (∼1.0%). TSH within the reference range is positively and strongly associated with the risk of future hypothyroidism. TSH at the lower limit of the reference range may be associated with an increased risk of hyperthyroidism.