Response prediction techniques and case studies of a path blocking system based on Global Transmissibility Direct Transmissibility method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zengwei; Zhu, Ping; Zhao, Jianxuan

2017-02-01

In this paper, the prediction capabilities of the Global Transmissibility Direct Transmissibility (GTDT) method are further developed. Two path blocking techniques solely using the easily measured variables of the original system to predict the response of a path blocking system are generalized to finite element models of continuous systems. The proposed techniques are derived theoretically in a general form for the scenarios of setting the response of a subsystem to zero and of removing the link between two directly connected subsystems. The objective of this paper is to verify the reliability of the proposed techniques by finite element simulations. Two typical cases, the structural vibration transmission case and the structure-borne sound case, in two different configurations are employed to illustrate the validity of proposed techniques. The points of attention for each case have been discussed, and conclusions are given. It is shown that for the two cases of blocking a subsystem the proposed techniques are able to predict the new response using measured variables of the original system, even though operational forces are unknown. For the structural vibration transmission case of removing a connector between two components, the proposed techniques are available only when the rotational component responses of the connector are very small. The proposed techniques offer relative path measures and provide an alternative way to deal with NVH problems. The work in this paper provides guidance and reference for the engineering application of the GTDT prediction techniques.

Clinical application of a systems model of apoptosis execution for the prediction of colorectal cancer therapy responses and personalisation of therapy.

PubMed

Hector, Suzanne; Rehm, Markus; Schmid, Jasmin; Kehoe, Joan; McCawley, Niamh; Dicker, Patrick; Murray, Frank; McNamara, Deborah; Kay, Elaine W; Concannon, Caoimhin G; Huber, Heinrich J; Prehn, Jochen H M

2012-05-01

Key to the clinical management of colorectal cancer is identifying tools which aid in assessing patient prognosis and determining more effective and personalised treatment strategies. We evaluated whether an experimental systems biology strategy which analyses the susceptibility of cancer cells to undergo caspase activation can be exploited to predict patient responses to 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy and to case-specifically identify potential alternative targeted treatments to reactivate apoptosis. We quantified five essential apoptosis-regulating proteins (Pro-Caspases 3 and 9, APAF-1, SMAC and XIAP) in samples of Stage II (n = 13) and III (n=17) tumour and normal colonic (n = 8) tissue using absolute quantitative immunoblotting and employed systems simulations of apoptosis signalling to predict the susceptibility of tumour cells to execute apoptosis. Additional systems analyses assessed the efficacy of novel apoptosis-inducing therapeutics such as XIAP antagonists, proteasome inhibitors and Pro-Caspase-3-activating compounds in restoring apoptosis execution in apoptosis-incompetent tumours. Comparisons of caspase activity profiles demonstrated that the likelihood of colorectal tumours to undergo apoptosis decreases with advancing disease stage. Systems-level analysis correctly predicted positive or negative outcome in 85% (p=0.004) of colorectal cancer patients receiving 5-fluorouracil based chemotherapy and significantly outperformed common uni- and multi-variate statistical approaches. Modelling of individual patient responses to novel apoptosis-inducing therapeutics revealed markedly different inter-individual responses. Our study represents the first proof-of-concept example demonstrating the significant clinical potential of systems biology-based approaches for predicting patient outcome and responsiveness to novel targeted treatment paradigms.

Qualitative comparison of calculated turbulence responses with wind-tunnel measurements for a DC-10 derivative wing with an active control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perry, B., III

1981-01-01

Comparisons are presented analytically predicted and experimental turbulence responses of a wind tunnel model of a DC-10 derivative wing equipped with an active control system. The active control system was designed for the purpose of flutter suppression, but it had additional benefit of alleviating gust loads (wing bending moment) by about 25%. Comparisions of various wing responses are presented for variations in active control system parameters and tunnel speed. The analytical turbulence responses were obtained using DYLOFLEX, a computer program for dynamic loads analyses of flexible airplanes with active controls. In general, the analytical predictions agreed reasonably well with the experimental data.

Derivation and Validation of a Biomarker-Based Clinical Algorithm to Rule Out Sepsis From Noninfectious Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome at Emergency Department Admission: A Multicenter Prospective Study.

PubMed

Mearelli, Filippo; Fiotti, Nicola; Giansante, Carlo; Casarsa, Chiara; Orso, Daniele; De Helmersen, Marco; Altamura, Nicola; Ruscio, Maurizio; Castello, Luigi Mario; Colonetti, Efrem; Marino, Rossella; Barbati, Giulia; Bregnocchi, Andrea; Ronco, Claudio; Lupia, Enrico; Montrucchio, Giuseppe; Muiesan, Maria Lorenza; Di Somma, Salvatore; Avanzi, Gian Carlo; Biolo, Gianni

2018-05-07

To derive and validate a predictive algorithm integrating a nomogram-based prediction of the pretest probability of infection with a panel of serum biomarkers, which could robustly differentiate sepsis/septic shock from noninfectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome. Multicenter prospective study. At emergency department admission in five University hospitals. Nine-hundred forty-seven adults in inception cohort and 185 adults in validation cohort. None. A nomogram, including age, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, recent antimicrobial therapy, hyperthermia, leukocytosis, and high C-reactive protein values, was built in order to take data from 716 infected patients and 120 patients with noninfectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome to predict pretest probability of infection. Then, the best combination of procalcitonin, soluble phospholypase A2 group IIA, presepsin, soluble interleukin-2 receptor α, and soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cell-1 was applied in order to categorize patients as "likely" or "unlikely" to be infected. The predictive algorithm required only procalcitonin backed up with soluble phospholypase A2 group IIA determined in 29% of the patients to rule out sepsis/septic shock with a negative predictive value of 93%. In a validation cohort of 158 patients, predictive algorithm reached 100% of negative predictive value requiring biomarker measurements in 18% of the population. We have developed and validated a high-performing, reproducible, and parsimonious algorithm to assist emergency department physicians in distinguishing sepsis/septic shock from noninfectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome.

A meta-analysis of response-time tests of the sequential two-systems model of moral judgment.

PubMed

Baron, Jonathan; Gürçay, Burcu

2017-05-01

The (generalized) sequential two-system ("default interventionist") model of utilitarian moral judgment predicts that utilitarian responses often arise from a system-two correction of system-one deontological intuitions. Response-time (RT) results that seem to support this model are usually explained by the fact that low-probability responses have longer RTs. Following earlier results, we predicted response probability from each subject's tendency to make utilitarian responses (A, "Ability") and each dilemma's tendency to elicit deontological responses (D, "Difficulty"), estimated from a Rasch model. At the point where A = D, the two responses are equally likely, so probability effects cannot account for any RT differences between them. The sequential two-system model still predicts that many of the utilitarian responses made at this point will result from system-two corrections of system-one intuitions, hence should take longer. However, when A = D, RT for the two responses was the same, contradicting the sequential model. Here we report a meta-analysis of 26 data sets, which replicated the earlier results of no RT difference overall at the point where A = D. The data sets used three different kinds of moral judgment items, and the RT equality at the point where A = D held for all three. In addition, we found that RT increased with A-D. This result holds for subjects (characterized by Ability) but not for items (characterized by Difficulty). We explain the main features of this unanticipated effect, and of the main results, with a drift-diffusion model.

Getting the Most out of Audience Response Systems: Predicting Student Reactions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trew, Jennifer L.; Nelsen, Jacqueline L.

2012-01-01

Audience response systems (ARS) are effective tools for improving learning outcomes and student engagement in large undergraduate classes. However, if students do not accept ARS and do not find them to be useful, ARS may be less effective. Predicting and improving student perceptions of ARS may help to ensure positive outcomes. The present study…

Modeling human vestibular responses during eccentric rotation and off vertical axis rotation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merfeld, D. M.; Paloski, W. H. (Principal Investigator)

1995-01-01

A mathematical model has been developed to help explain human multi-sensory interactions. The most important constituent of the model is the hypothesis that the nervous system incorporates knowledge of sensory dynamics into an "internal model" of these dynamics. This internal model allows the nervous system to integrate the sensory information from many different sensors into a coherent estimate of self-motion. The essence of the model is unchanged from a previously published model of monkey eye movement responses; only a few variables have been adjusted to yield the prediction of human responses. During eccentric rotation, the model predicts that the axis of eye rotation shifts slightly toward alignment with gravito-inertial force. The model also predicts that the time course of the perception of tilt following the acceleration phase of eccentric rotation is much slower than that during deceleration. During off vertical axis rotation (OVAR) the model predicts a small horizontal bias along with small horizontal, vertical, and torsional oscillations. Following OVAR stimulation, when stopped right- or left-side down, a small vertical component is predicted that decays with the horizontal post-rotatory response. All of the predictions are consistent with measurements of human responses.

Prediction of HR/BP response to the spontaneous breathing trial by fluctuation dissipation theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Man

2014-03-01

We applied the non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation theorem to predict how critically-ill patients respond to treatment, based on both heart rate data and blood pressure data collected by standard hospital monitoring devices. The non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation theorem relates the response of a system to a perturbation to the fluctuations in the stationary state of the system. It is shown that the response of patients to a standard procedure performed on patients, the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT), can be predicted by the non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation approach. We classify patients into different groups according to the patients' characteristics. For each patient group, we extend the fluctuation dissipation theorem to predict interactions between blood pressure and beat-to-beat dynamics of heart rate in response to a perturbation (SBT), We also extract the form of the perturbation function directly from the physiological data, which may help to reduce the prediction error. We note this method is not limited to the analysis of the heart rate dynamics, but also can be applied to analyze the response of other physiological signals to other clinical interventions.

Systems analysis of apoptosis protein expression allows the case-specific prediction of cell death responsiveness of melanoma cells

PubMed Central

Passante, E; Würstle, M L; Hellwig, C T; Leverkus, M; Rehm, M

2013-01-01

Many cancer entities and their associated cell line models are highly heterogeneous in their responsiveness to apoptosis inducers and, despite a detailed understanding of the underlying signaling networks, cell death susceptibility currently cannot be predicted reliably from protein expression profiles. Here, we demonstrate that an integration of quantitative apoptosis protein expression data with pathway knowledge can predict the cell death responsiveness of melanoma cell lines. By a total of 612 measurements, we determined the absolute expression (nM) of 17 core apoptosis regulators in a panel of 11 melanoma cell lines, and enriched these data with systems-level information on apoptosis pathway topology. By applying multivariate statistical analysis and multi-dimensional pattern recognition algorithms, the responsiveness of individual cell lines to tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) or dacarbazine (DTIC) could be predicted with very high accuracy (91 and 82% correct predictions), and the most effective treatment option for individual cell lines could be pre-determined in silico. In contrast, cell death responsiveness was poorly predicted when not taking knowledge on protein–protein interactions into account (55 and 36% correct predictions). We also generated mathematical predictions on whether anti-apoptotic Bcl-2 family members or x-linked inhibitor of apoptosis protein (XIAP) can be targeted to enhance TRAIL responsiveness in individual cell lines. Subsequent experiments, making use of pharmacological Bcl-2/Bcl-xL inhibition or siRNA-based XIAP depletion, confirmed the accuracy of these predictions. We therefore demonstrate that cell death responsiveness to TRAIL or DTIC can be predicted reliably in a large number of melanoma cell lines when investigating expression patterns of apoptosis regulators in the context of their network-level interplay. The capacity to predict responsiveness at the cellular level may contribute to personalizing anti-cancer treatments in the future. PMID:23933815

Impact of Damping Uncertainty on SEA Model Response Variance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schiller, Noah; Cabell, Randolph; Grosveld, Ferdinand

2010-01-01

Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) is commonly used to predict high-frequency vibroacoustic levels. This statistical approach provides the mean response over an ensemble of random subsystems that share the same gross system properties such as density, size, and damping. Recently, techniques have been developed to predict the ensemble variance as well as the mean response. However these techniques do not account for uncertainties in the system properties. In the present paper uncertainty in the damping loss factor is propagated through SEA to obtain more realistic prediction bounds that account for both ensemble and damping variance. The analysis is performed on a floor-equipped cylindrical test article that resembles an aircraft fuselage. Realistic bounds on the damping loss factor are determined from measurements acquired on the sidewall of the test article. The analysis demonstrates that uncertainties in damping have the potential to significantly impact the mean and variance of the predicted response.

Prediction in the service of comprehension: modulated early brain responses to omitted speech segments.

PubMed

Bendixen, Alexandra; Scharinger, Mathias; Strauß, Antje; Obleser, Jonas

2014-04-01

Speech signals are often compromised by disruptions originating from external (e.g., masking noise) or internal (e.g., inaccurate articulation) sources. Speech comprehension thus entails detecting and replacing missing information based on predictive and restorative neural mechanisms. The present study targets predictive mechanisms by investigating the influence of a speech segment's predictability on early, modality-specific electrophysiological responses to this segment's omission. Predictability was manipulated in simple physical terms in a single-word framework (Experiment 1) or in more complex semantic terms in a sentence framework (Experiment 2). In both experiments, final consonants of the German words Lachs ([laks], salmon) or Latz ([lats], bib) were occasionally omitted, resulting in the syllable La ([la], no semantic meaning), while brain responses were measured with multi-channel electroencephalography (EEG). In both experiments, the occasional presentation of the fragment La elicited a larger omission response when the final speech segment had been predictable. The omission response occurred ∼125-165 msec after the expected onset of the final segment and showed characteristics of the omission mismatch negativity (MMN), with generators in auditory cortical areas. Suggestive of a general auditory predictive mechanism at work, this main observation was robust against varying source of predictive information or attentional allocation, differing between the two experiments. Source localization further suggested the omission response enhancement by predictability to emerge from left superior temporal gyrus and left angular gyrus in both experiments, with additional experiment-specific contributions. These results are consistent with the existence of predictive coding mechanisms in the central auditory system, and suggestive of the general predictive properties of the auditory system to support spoken word recognition. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How to predict community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aufderheide, Helge; Rudolf, Lars; Gross, Thilo; Lafferty, Kevin D.

2013-01-01

Recent attempts to predict the response of large food webs to perturbations have revealed that in larger systems increasingly precise information on the elements of the system is required. Thus, the effort needed for good predictions grows quickly with the system's complexity. Here, we show that not all elements need to be measured equally well, suggesting that a more efficient allocation of effort is possible. We develop an iterative technique for determining an efficient measurement strategy. In model food webs, we find that it is most important to precisely measure the mortality and predation rates of long-lived, generalist, top predators. Prioritizing the study of such species will make it easier to understand the response of complex food webs to perturbations.

REVIEW: Widespread access to predictive models in the motor system: a short review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, Paul R.; Wolpert, Daniel M.

2005-09-01

Recent behavioural and computational studies suggest that access to internal predictive models of arm and object dynamics is widespread in the sensorimotor system. Several systems, including those responsible for oculomotor and skeletomotor control, perceptual processing, postural control and mental imagery, are able to access predictions of the motion of the arm. A capacity to make and use predictions of object dynamics is similarly widespread. Here, we review recent studies looking at the predictive capacity of the central nervous system which reveal pervasive access to forward models of the environment.

Systems biology as a conceptual framework for research in family medicine; use in predicting response to influenza vaccination.

PubMed

Majnarić-Trtica, Ljiljana; Vitale, Branko

2011-10-01

To introduce systems biology as a conceptual framework for research in family medicine, based on empirical data from a case study on the prediction of influenza vaccination outcomes. This concept is primarily oriented towards planning preventive interventions and includes systematic data recording, a multi-step research protocol and predictive modelling. Factors known to affect responses to influenza vaccination include older age, past exposure to influenza viruses, and chronic diseases; however, constructing useful prediction models remains a challenge, because of the need to identify health parameters that are appropriate for general use in modelling patients' responses. The sample consisted of 93 patients aged 50-89 years (median 69), with multiple medical conditions, who were vaccinated against influenza. Literature searches identified potentially predictive health-related parameters, including age, gender, diagnoses of the main chronic ageing diseases, anthropometric measures, and haematological and biochemical tests. By applying data mining algorithms, patterns were identified in the data set. Candidate health parameters, selected in this way, were then combined with information on past influenza virus exposure to build the prediction model using logistic regression. A highly significant prediction model was obtained, indicating that by using a systems biology approach it is possible to answer unresolved complex medical uncertainties. Adopting this systems biology approach can be expected to be useful in identifying the most appropriate target groups for other preventive programmes.

An optimal design of wind turbine and ship structure based on neuro-response surface method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae-Chul; Shin, Sung-Chul; Kim, Soo-Young

2015-07-01

The geometry of engineering systems affects their performances. For this reason, the shape of engineering systems needs to be optimized in the initial design stage. However, engineering system design problems consist of multi-objective optimization and the performance analysis using commercial code or numerical analysis is generally time-consuming. To solve these problems, many engineers perform the optimization using the approximation model (response surface). The Response Surface Method (RSM) is generally used to predict the system performance in engineering research field, but RSM presents some prediction errors for highly nonlinear systems. The major objective of this research is to establish an optimal design method for multi-objective problems and confirm its applicability. The proposed process is composed of three parts: definition of geometry, generation of response surface, and optimization process. To reduce the time for performance analysis and minimize the prediction errors, the approximation model is generated using the Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network (BPANN) which is considered as Neuro-Response Surface Method (NRSM). The optimization is done for the generated response surface by non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II). Through case studies of marine system and ship structure (substructure of floating offshore wind turbine considering hydrodynamics performances and bulk carrier bottom stiffened panels considering structure performance), we have confirmed the applicability of the proposed method for multi-objective side constraint optimization problems.

Systematic mapping of two component response regulators to gene targets in a model sulfate reducing bacterium.

PubMed

Rajeev, Lara; Luning, Eric G; Dehal, Paramvir S; Price, Morgan N; Arkin, Adam P; Mukhopadhyay, Aindrila

2011-10-12

Two component regulatory systems are the primary form of signal transduction in bacteria. Although genomic binding sites have been determined for several eukaryotic and bacterial transcription factors, comprehensive identification of gene targets of two component response regulators remains challenging due to the lack of knowledge of the signals required for their activation. We focused our study on Desulfovibrio vulgaris Hildenborough, a sulfate reducing bacterium that encodes unusually diverse and largely uncharacterized two component signal transduction systems. We report the first systematic mapping of the genes regulated by all transcriptionally acting response regulators in a single bacterium. Our results enabled functional predictions for several response regulators and include key processes of carbon, nitrogen and energy metabolism, cell motility and biofilm formation, and responses to stresses such as nitrite, low potassium and phosphate starvation. Our study also led to the prediction of new genes and regulatory networks, which found corroboration in a compendium of transcriptome data available for D. vulgaris. For several regulators we predicted and experimentally verified the binding site motifs, most of which were discovered as part of this study. The gene targets identified for the response regulators allowed strong functional predictions to be made for the corresponding two component systems. By tracking the D. vulgaris regulators and their motifs outside the Desulfovibrio spp. we provide testable hypotheses regarding the functions of orthologous regulators in other organisms. The in vitro array based method optimized here is generally applicable for the study of such systems in all organisms.

Relating Neuronal to Behavioral Performance: Variability of Optomotor Responses in the Blowfly

PubMed Central

Rosner, Ronny; Warzecha, Anne-Kathrin

2011-01-01

Behavioral responses of an animal vary even when they are elicited by the same stimulus. This variability is due to stochastic processes within the nervous system and to the changing internal states of the animal. To what extent does the variability of neuronal responses account for the overall variability at the behavioral level? To address this question we evaluate the neuronal variability at the output stage of the blowfly's (Calliphora vicina) visual system by recording from motion-sensitive interneurons mediating head optomotor responses. By means of a simple modelling approach representing the sensory-motor transformation, we predict head movements on the basis of the recorded responses of motion-sensitive neurons and compare the variability of the predicted head movements with that of the observed ones. Large gain changes of optomotor head movements have previously been shown to go along with changes in the animals' activity state. Our modelling approach substantiates that these gain changes are imposed downstream of the motion-sensitive neurons of the visual system. Moreover, since predicted head movements are clearly more reliable than those actually observed, we conclude that substantial variability is introduced downstream of the visual system. PMID:22066014

Outcome Prediction in Mathematical Models of Immune Response to Infection.

PubMed

Mai, Manuel; Wang, Kun; Huber, Greg; Kirby, Michael; Shattuck, Mark D; O'Hern, Corey S

2015-01-01

Clinicians need to predict patient outcomes with high accuracy as early as possible after disease inception. In this manuscript, we show that patient-to-patient variability sets a fundamental limit on outcome prediction accuracy for a general class of mathematical models for the immune response to infection. However, accuracy can be increased at the expense of delayed prognosis. We investigate several systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that model the host immune response to a pathogen load. Advantages of systems of ODEs for investigating the immune response to infection include the ability to collect data on large numbers of 'virtual patients', each with a given set of model parameters, and obtain many time points during the course of the infection. We implement patient-to-patient variability v in the ODE models by randomly selecting the model parameters from distributions with coefficients of variation v that are centered on physiological values. We use logistic regression with one-versus-all classification to predict the discrete steady-state outcomes of the system. We find that the prediction algorithm achieves near 100% accuracy for v = 0, and the accuracy decreases with increasing v for all ODE models studied. The fact that multiple steady-state outcomes can be obtained for a given initial condition, i.e. the basins of attraction overlap in the space of initial conditions, limits the prediction accuracy for v > 0. Increasing the elapsed time of the variables used to train and test the classifier, increases the prediction accuracy, while adding explicit external noise to the ODE models decreases the prediction accuracy. Our results quantify the competition between early prognosis and high prediction accuracy that is frequently encountered by clinicians.

A history of wind erosion prediction models in the United States Department of Agriculture: The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Development of the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) was officially inaugurated in 1985 by United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) scientists in response to customer requests, particularly those coming from the USDA Soil Conservation Service (SCS), for im...

Surprised at All the Entropy: Hippocampal, Caudate and Midbrain Contributions to Learning from Prediction Errors

PubMed Central

Schiffer, Anne-Marike; Ahlheim, Christiane; Wurm, Moritz F.; Schubotz, Ricarda I.

2012-01-01

Influential concepts in neuroscientific research cast the brain a predictive machine that revises its predictions when they are violated by sensory input. This relates to the predictive coding account of perception, but also to learning. Learning from prediction errors has been suggested for take place in the hippocampal memory system as well as in the basal ganglia. The present fMRI study used an action-observation paradigm to investigate the contributions of the hippocampus, caudate nucleus and midbrain dopaminergic system to different types of learning: learning in the absence of prediction errors, learning from prediction errors, and responding to the accumulation of prediction errors in unpredictable stimulus configurations. We conducted analyses of the regions of interests' BOLD response towards these different types of learning, implementing a bootstrapping procedure to correct for false positives. We found both, caudate nucleus and the hippocampus to be activated by perceptual prediction errors. The hippocampal responses seemed to relate to the associative mismatch between a stored representation and current sensory input. Moreover, its response was significantly influenced by the average information, or Shannon entropy of the stimulus material. In accordance with earlier results, the habenula was activated by perceptual prediction errors. Lastly, we found that the substantia nigra was activated by the novelty of sensory input. In sum, we established that the midbrain dopaminergic system, the hippocampus, and the caudate nucleus were to different degrees significantly involved in the three different types of learning: acquisition of new information, learning from prediction errors and responding to unpredictable stimulus developments. We relate learning from perceptual prediction errors to the concept of predictive coding and related information theoretic accounts. PMID:22570715

Space Shuttle orbiter entry heating and TPS response: STS-1 predictions and flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ried, R. C.; Goodrich, W. D.; Li, C. P.; Scott, C. D.; Derry, S. M.; Maraia, R. J.

1982-01-01

Aerothermodynamic development flight test data from the first orbital flight test of the Space Transportation System (STS) transmitted after entry blackout is given. Engineering predictions of boundary layer transition and numerical simulations of the orbiter flow field were confirmed. The data tended to substantiate preflight predictions of surface catalysis phenomena. The thermal response of the thermal protection system was as expected. The only exception is that internal free convection was found to be significant in limiting the peak temperature of the structure in areas which do not have internal insulation.

Systematic mapping of two component response regulators to gene targets in a model sulfate reducing bacterium

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Two component regulatory systems are the primary form of signal transduction in bacteria. Although genomic binding sites have been determined for several eukaryotic and bacterial transcription factors, comprehensive identification of gene targets of two component response regulators remains challenging due to the lack of knowledge of the signals required for their activation. We focused our study on Desulfovibrio vulgaris Hildenborough, a sulfate reducing bacterium that encodes unusually diverse and largely uncharacterized two component signal transduction systems. Results We report the first systematic mapping of the genes regulated by all transcriptionally acting response regulators in a single bacterium. Our results enabled functional predictions for several response regulators and include key processes of carbon, nitrogen and energy metabolism, cell motility and biofilm formation, and responses to stresses such as nitrite, low potassium and phosphate starvation. Our study also led to the prediction of new genes and regulatory networks, which found corroboration in a compendium of transcriptome data available for D. vulgaris. For several regulators we predicted and experimentally verified the binding site motifs, most of which were discovered as part of this study. Conclusions The gene targets identified for the response regulators allowed strong functional predictions to be made for the corresponding two component systems. By tracking the D. vulgaris regulators and their motifs outside the Desulfovibrio spp. we provide testable hypotheses regarding the functions of orthologous regulators in other organisms. The in vitro array based method optimized here is generally applicable for the study of such systems in all organisms. PMID:21992415

The impact of warming on greenhouse gas fluxes: an experimental comparison which reveals the varied response of ecosystems to climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockdale, James; Ineson, Philip

2016-04-01

Modelled predictions of the response of terrestrial systems to climate change are highly variable, yet the response of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) is a vital ecosystem behaviour to understand due to its inherent feedback to the carbon cycle. The establishment and subsequent monitoring of replicated experimental manipulations are a direct method to reveal these responses, yet are difficult to achieve as they typically resource-heavy and labour intensive. We actively manipulated the temperature at three agricultural grasslands in southern England and deployed novel 'SkyLine' systems, recently developed at the University of York, to continuously monitor GHG fluxes. Each 'SkyLine' is a low-cost and fully autonomous technology yet produces fluxes at a near-continuous temporal frequency and across a wide spatial area. The results produced by 'SkyLine' enable the detail response of each system to increased temperature over diurnal and seasonal timescales. Unexpected differences in NEE are shown between superficially similar ecosystems which, upon investigation, suggest that interactions between a variety of environmental variables are key and that knowledge of pre-existing environmental conditions help to predict a systems response to future climate. For example, the prevailing hydrological conditions at each site appear to affect its response to changing temperature. The high-frequency data shown here, combined with the fully-replicated experimental design reveal complex interactions which must be understood to improve predictions of ecosystem response to a changing climate.

Towards a Rigorous Assessment of Systems Biology Models: The DREAM3 Challenges

PubMed Central

Prill, Robert J.; Marbach, Daniel; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Sorger, Peter K.; Alexopoulos, Leonidas G.; Xue, Xiaowei; Clarke, Neil D.; Altan-Bonnet, Gregoire; Stolovitzky, Gustavo

2010-01-01

Background Systems biology has embraced computational modeling in response to the quantitative nature and increasing scale of contemporary data sets. The onslaught of data is accelerating as molecular profiling technology evolves. The Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM) is a community effort to catalyze discussion about the design, application, and assessment of systems biology models through annual reverse-engineering challenges. Methodology and Principal Findings We describe our assessments of the four challenges associated with the third DREAM conference which came to be known as the DREAM3 challenges: signaling cascade identification, signaling response prediction, gene expression prediction, and the DREAM3 in silico network challenge. The challenges, based on anonymized data sets, tested participants in network inference and prediction of measurements. Forty teams submitted 413 predicted networks and measurement test sets. Overall, a handful of best-performer teams were identified, while a majority of teams made predictions that were equivalent to random. Counterintuitively, combining the predictions of multiple teams (including the weaker teams) can in some cases improve predictive power beyond that of any single method. Conclusions DREAM provides valuable feedback to practitioners of systems biology modeling. Lessons learned from the predictions of the community provide much-needed context for interpreting claims of efficacy of algorithms described in the scientific literature. PMID:20186320

A study on the predictability of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia response to treatment using a hybrid oncosimulator.

PubMed

Ouzounoglou, Eleftherios; Kolokotroni, Eleni; Stanulla, Martin; Stamatakos, Georgios S

2018-02-06

Efficient use of Virtual Physiological Human (VPH)-type models for personalized treatment response prediction purposes requires a precise model parameterization. In the case where the available personalized data are not sufficient to fully determine the parameter values, an appropriate prediction task may be followed. This study, a hybrid combination of computational optimization and machine learning methods with an already developed mechanistic model called the acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) Oncosimulator which simulates ALL progression and treatment response is presented. These methods are used in order for the parameters of the model to be estimated for retrospective cases and to be predicted for prospective ones. The parameter value prediction is based on a regression model trained on retrospective cases. The proposed Hybrid ALL Oncosimulator system has been evaluated when predicting the pre-phase treatment outcome in ALL. This has been correctly achieved for a significant percentage of patient cases tested (approx. 70% of patients). Moreover, the system is capable of denying the classification of cases for which the results are not trustworthy enough. In that case, potentially misleading predictions for a number of patients are avoided, while the classification accuracy for the remaining patient cases further increases. The results obtained are particularly encouraging regarding the soundness of the proposed methodologies and their relevance to the process of achieving clinical applicability of the proposed Hybrid ALL Oncosimulator system and VPH models in general.

Acquisition of automatic imitation is sensitive to sensorimotor contingency.

PubMed

Cook, Richard; Press, Clare; Dickinson, Anthony; Heyes, Cecilia

2010-08-01

The associative sequence learning model proposes that the development of the mirror system depends on the same mechanisms of associative learning that mediate Pavlovian and instrumental conditioning. To test this model, two experiments used the reduction of automatic imitation through incompatible sensorimotor training to assess whether mirror system plasticity is sensitive to contingency (i.e., the extent to which activation of one representation predicts activation of another). In Experiment 1, residual automatic imitation was measured following incompatible training in which the action stimulus was a perfect predictor of the response (contingent) or not at all predictive of the response (noncontingent). A contingency effect was observed: There was less automatic imitation indicative of more learning in the contingent group. Experiment 2 replicated this contingency effect and showed that, as predicted by associative learning theory, it can be abolished by signaling trials in which the response occurs in the absence of an action stimulus. These findings support the view that mirror system development depends on associative learning and indicate that this learning is not purely Hebbian. If this is correct, associative learning theory could be used to explain, predict, and intervene in mirror system development.

Predictive sufficiency and the use of stored internal state

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Musliner, David J.; Durfee, Edmund H.; Shin, Kang G.

1994-01-01

In all embedded computing systems, some delay exists between sensing and acting. By choosing an action based on sensed data, a system is essentially predicting that there will be no significant changes in the world during this delay. However, the dynamic and uncertain nature of the real world can make these predictions incorrect, and thus, a system may execute inappropriate actions. Making systems more reactive by decreasing the gap between sensing and action leaves less time for predictions to err, but still provides no principled assurance that they will be correct. Using the concept of predictive sufficiency described in this paper, a system can prove that its predictions are valid, and that it will never execute inappropriate actions. In the context of our CIRCA system, we also show how predictive sufficiency allows a system to guarantee worst-case response times to changes in its environment. Using predictive sufficiency, CIRCA is able to build real-time reactive control plans which provide a sound basis for performance guarantees that are unavailable with other reactive systems.

An advance forecasting system for ship originated oil spills in the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zodiatis, G.; Lardner, R.; De Dominicis, M.; Coppini, G.; Pinardi, N.

2012-04-01

One of the permanent risks from an oil spill incident in the Mediterranean is associated with the heavy traffic in maritime transport, as well nowadays with the coastal and offshore installations related to the oil and gas industry. Such dense activity imposes on the coastal countries the need for preparing an operational response to major oil spill incidents. In the recent past, several policies related to oil spill response have been adopted internationally. At the regional level the Barcelona convention, recognizing pollution from oil spills as one of the major threats to the marine environment of the Mediterranean, initiated the preparedness for responding to major oil spill incidents, through various national and sub-regional contingency plans. At the European level the Member States was obliged to implement the EU Directive 2005/35, aimed at identifying the polluter and bringing them to prosecution. The response to an oil spill incident employs various measures and equipment. However, the success of such response depends greatly on the prediction of the movement and weathering of the oil spills. Such predictions may obtained through the operational application of advanced numerical oil spill models integrated with met-ocean forecasting data. A well established operational system for oil spill predictions in the Mediterranean is the MEDSLIK three dimensional model that predicts the transport, diffusion and spreading of oil spill and incorporates the fate processes of evaporation, emulsification, viscosity changes, dispersion into the water column and coastal impact and adhesion. MEDSLIK is integrated with the MyOCEAN regional and several downscaled ocean forecasting systems in the Mediterranean, contributing to the development of the GMES marine services. Moreover, MEDSLIK has been coupled with EMSA-CSN and ESA ASAR imageries, for short forward and backward predictions, to assist the response agencies in the implementation of the EU Directive 2005/35. From 2007 to 2011 more than a thousand possible ship originated oil slicks were detected by ASAR imageries in the Levantine Basin and then used for operational predictions by MEDSLIK. The successful operation of the MEDSLIK oil spill prediction system in the Levantine Basin has initiated efforts to implement a multi model approach to oil spill predictions in the Mediterranean through the realization of the recently approved project known as MedDESS4MS-Mediterranean Decision Support System for Maritime Safety, funded under the MED program. MEDESS4MS project is dedicated to the prevention of maritime risks and strengthening of maritime safety related to oil spill pollution in the Mediterranean. MEDESS4MS will deliver an integrated operational multi model oil spill prediction service in the Mediterranean, connected to existing monitoring platforms (EMSA-CSN, REMPEC, AIS), using the well established oil spill modeling systems, the data from the GMES Marine Core Services and the national ocean forecasting systems.

An Expert System For Multispectral Threat Assessment And Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinberg, Alan N.

1987-05-01

A concept has been defined for an automatic system to manage the self-defense of a combat aircraft. Distinctive new features of this concept include: a. the flexible prioritization of tasks and coordinated use of sensor, countermeasures, flight systems and weapons assets by means of an automated planning function; b. the integration of state-of-the-art data fusion algorithms with event prediction processing; c. the use of advanced Artificial Intelligence tools to emulate the decision processes of tactical EW experts. Threat Assessment functions (a) estimate threat identity, lethality and intent on the basis of multi-spectral sensor data, and (b) predict the time to critical events in threat engagements (e.g., target acquisition, tracking, weapon launch, impact). Response Management functions (a) select candidate responses to reported threat situations; (b) estimate the effects of candidate actions on survival; and (c) coordinate the assignment of sensors, weapons and countermeasures with the flight plan. The system employs Finite State Models to represent current engagements and to predict subsequent events. Each state in a model is associated with a set of observable features, allowing interpretation of sensor data and adaptive use of sensor assets. Defined conditions on state transitions allow prediction of times to critical future states and are used in planning self-defensive responses, which are designed either to impede a particular state transition or to force a transition to a lower threat state.

Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation of a Distribution System with Air Conditioners under Model Predictive Control: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sparn, Bethany F; Ruth, Mark F; Krishnamurthy, Dheepak

Many have proposed that responsive load provided by distributed energy resources (DERs) and demand response (DR) are an option to provide flexibility to the grid and especially to distribution feeders. However, because responsive load involves a complex interplay between tariffs and DER and DR technologies, it is challenging to test and evaluate options without negatively impacting customers. This paper describes a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation system that has been developed to reduce the cost of evaluating the impact of advanced controllers (e.g., model predictive controllers) and technologies (e.g., responsive appliances). The HIL simulation system combines large-scale software simulation with a smallmore » set of representative building equipment hardware. It is used to perform HIL simulation of a distribution feeder and the loads on it under various tariff structures. In the reported HIL simulation, loads include many simulated air conditioners and one physical air conditioner. Independent model predictive controllers manage operations of all air conditioners under a time-of-use tariff. Results from this HIL simulation and a discussion of future development work of the system are presented.« less

Analytical design and evaluation of an active control system for helicopter vibration reduction and gust response alleviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, R. B.; Zwicke, P. E.; Gold, P.; Miao, W.

1980-01-01

An analytical study was conducted to define the basic configuration of an active control system for helicopter vibration and gust response alleviation. The study culminated in a control system design which has two separate systems: narrow band loop for vibration reduction and wider band loop for gust response alleviation. The narrow band vibration loop utilizes the standard swashplate control configuration to input controller for the vibration loop is based on adaptive optimal control theory and is designed to adapt to any flight condition including maneuvers and transients. The prime characteristics of the vibration control system is its real time capability. The gust alleviation control system studied consists of optimal sampled data feedback gains together with an optimal one-step-ahead prediction. The prediction permits the estimation of the gust disturbance which can then be used to minimize the gust effects on the helicopter.

Merck Ad5/HIV induces broad innate immune activation that predicts CD8⁺ T-cell responses but is attenuated by preexisting Ad5 immunity.

PubMed

Zak, Daniel E; Andersen-Nissen, Erica; Peterson, Eric R; Sato, Alicia; Hamilton, M Kristina; Borgerding, Joleen; Krishnamurty, Akshay T; Chang, Joanne T; Adams, Devin J; Hensley, Tiffany R; Salter, Alexander I; Morgan, Cecilia A; Duerr, Ann C; De Rosa, Stephen C; Aderem, Alan; McElrath, M Juliana

2012-12-11

To better understand how innate immune responses to vaccination can lead to lasting protective immunity, we used a systems approach to define immune signatures in humans over 1 wk following MRKAd5/HIV vaccination that predicted subsequent HIV-specific T-cell responses. Within 24 h, striking increases in peripheral blood mononuclear cell gene expression associated with inflammation, IFN response, and myeloid cell trafficking occurred, and lymphocyte-specific transcripts decreased. These alterations were corroborated by marked serum inflammatory cytokine elevations and egress of circulating lymphocytes. Responses of vaccinees with preexisting adenovirus serotype 5 (Ad5) neutralizing antibodies were strongly attenuated, suggesting that enhanced HIV acquisition in Ad5-seropositive subgroups in the Step Study may relate to the lack of appropriate innate activation rather than to increased systemic immune activation. Importantly, patterns of chemoattractant cytokine responses at 24 h and alterations in 209 peripheral blood mononuclear cell transcripts at 72 h were predictive of subsequent induction and magnitude of HIV-specific CD8(+) T-cell responses. This systems approach provides a framework to compare innate responses induced by vectors, as shown here by contrasting the more rapid, robust response to MRKAd5/HIV with that to yellow fever vaccine. When applied iteratively, the findings may permit selection of HIV vaccine candidates eliciting innate immune response profiles more likely to drive HIV protective immunity.

Predicting multi-wall structural response to hypervelocity impact using the hull code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonberg, William P.

1993-01-01

Previously, multi-wall structures have been analyzed extensively, primarily through experiment, as a means of increasing the meteoroid/space debris impact protection of spacecraft. As structural configurations become more varied, the number of tests required to characterize their response increases dramatically. As an alternative to experimental testing, numerical modeling of high-speed impact phenomena is often being used to predict the response of a variety of structural systems under different impact loading conditions. The results of comparing experimental tests to Hull Hydrodynamic Computer Code predictions are reported. Also, the results of a numerical parametric study of multi-wall structural response to hypervelocity cylindrical projectile impact are presented.

Predictive Multiple Model Switching Control with the Self-Organizing Map

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motter, Mark A.

2000-01-01

A predictive, multiple model control strategy is developed by extension of self-organizing map (SOM) local dynamic modeling of nonlinear autonomous systems to a control framework. Multiple SOMs collectively model the global response of a nonautonomous system to a finite set of representative prototype controls. Each SOM provides a codebook representation of the dynamics corresponding to a prototype control. Different dynamic regimes are organized into topological neighborhoods where the adjacent entries in the codebook represent the global minimization of a similarity metric. The SOM is additionally employed to identify the local dynamical regime, and consequently implements a switching scheme that selects the best available model for the applied control. SOM based linear models are used to predict the response to a larger family of control sequences which are clustered on the representative prototypes. The control sequence which corresponds to the prediction that best satisfies the requirements on the system output is applied as the external driving signal.

Evaluation of stroke volume variation obtained by arterial pulse contour analysis to predict fluid responsiveness intraoperatively.

PubMed

Lahner, D; Kabon, B; Marschalek, C; Chiari, A; Pestel, G; Kaider, A; Fleischmann, E; Hetz, H

2009-09-01

Fluid management guided by oesophageal Doppler monitor has been reported to improve perioperative outcome. Stroke volume variation (SVV) is considered a reliable clinical predictor of fluid responsiveness. Consequently, the aim of the present trial was to evaluate the accuracy of SVV determined by arterial pulse contour (APCO) analysis, using the FloTrac/Vigileo system, to predict fluid responsiveness as measured by the oesophageal Doppler. Patients undergoing major abdominal surgery received intraoperative fluid management guided by oesophageal Doppler monitoring. Fluid boluses of 250 ml each were administered in case of a decrease in corrected flow time (FTc) to <350 ms. Patients were connected to a monitoring device, obtaining SVV by APCO. Haemodynamic variables were recorded before and after fluid bolus application. Fluid responsiveness was defined as an increase in stroke volume index >10%. The ability of SVV to predict fluid responsiveness was assessed by calculation of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Twenty patients received 67 fluid boluses. Fifty-two of the 67 fluid boluses administered resulted in fluid responsiveness. SVV achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.512 [confidence interval (CI) 0.32-0.70]. A cut-off point for fluid responsiveness was found for SVV > or =8.5% (sensitivity: 77%; specificity: 43%; positive predictive value: 84%; and negative predictive value: 33%). This prospective, interventional observer-blinded study demonstrates that SVV obtained by APCO, using the FloTrac/Vigileo system, is not a reliable predictor of fluid responsiveness in the setting of major abdominal surgery.

ASXL1 and BIM germ line variants predict response and identify CML patients with the greatest risk of imatinib failure

PubMed Central

Marum, Justine E.; Yeung, David T.; Purins, Leanne; Reynolds, John; Parker, Wendy T.; Stangl, Doris; Wang, Paul P. S.; Price, David J.; Tuke, Jonathan; Schreiber, Andreas W.; Scott, Hamish S.; Hughes, Timothy P.

2017-01-01

Scoring systems used at diagnosis of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), such as Sokal risk, provide important response prediction for patients treated with imatinib. However, the sensitivity and specificity of scoring systems could be enhanced for improved identification of patients with the highest risk. We aimed to identify genomic predictive biomarkers of imatinib response at diagnosis to aid selection of first-line therapy. Targeted amplicon sequencing was performed to determine the germ line variant profile in 517 and 79 patients treated with first-line imatinib and nilotinib, respectively. The Sokal score and ASXL1 rs4911231 and BIM rs686952 variants were independent predictors of early molecular response (MR), major MR, deep MRs (MR4 and MR4.5), and failure-free survival (FFS) with imatinib treatment. In contrast, the ASXL1 and BIM variants did not consistently predict MR or FFS with nilotinib treatment. In the imatinib-treated cohort, neither Sokal or the ASXL1 and BIM variants predicted overall survival (OS) or progression to accelerated phase or blast crisis (AP/BC). The Sokal risk score was combined with the ASXL1 and BIM variants in a classification tree model to predict imatinib response. The model distinguished an ultra-high-risk group, representing 10% of patients, that predicted inferior OS (88% vs 97%; P = .041), progression to AP/BC (12% vs 1%; P = .034), FFS (P < .001), and MRs (P < .001). The ultra-high-risk patients may be candidates for more potent or combination first-line therapy. These data suggest that germ line genetic variation contributes to the heterogeneity of response to imatinib and may contribute to a prognostic risk score that allows early optimization of therapy. PMID:29296778

Blood autoantibody and cytokine profiles predict response to anti-tumor necrosis factor therapy in rheumatoid arthritis

PubMed Central

Hueber, Wolfgang; Tomooka, Beren H; Batliwalla, Franak; Li, Wentian; Monach, Paul A; Tibshirani, Robert J; Van Vollenhoven, Ronald F; Lampa, Jon; Saito, Kazuyoshi; Tanaka, Yoshiya; Genovese, Mark C; Klareskog, Lars; Gregersen, Peter K; Robinson, William H

2009-01-01

Introduction Anti-TNF therapies have revolutionized the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), a common systemic autoimmune disease involving destruction of the synovial joints. However, in the practice of rheumatology approximately one-third of patients demonstrate no clinical improvement in response to treatment with anti-TNF therapies, while another third demonstrate a partial response, and one-third an excellent and sustained response. Since no clinical or laboratory tests are available to predict response to anti-TNF therapies, great need exists for predictive biomarkers. Methods Here we present a multi-step proteomics approach using arthritis antigen arrays, a multiplex cytokine assay, and conventional ELISA, with the objective to identify a biomarker signature in three ethnically diverse cohorts of RA patients treated with the anti-TNF therapy etanercept. Results We identified a 24-biomarker signature that enabled prediction of a positive clinical response to etanercept in all three cohorts (positive predictive values 58 to 72%; negative predictive values 63 to 78%). Conclusions We identified a multi-parameter protein biomarker that enables pretreatment classification and prediction of etanercept responders, and tested this biomarker using three independent cohorts of RA patients. Although further validation in prospective and larger cohorts is needed, our observations demonstrate that multiplex characterization of autoantibodies and cytokines provides clinical utility for predicting response to the anti-TNF therapy etanercept in RA patients. PMID:19460157

Evaluation of the Emergency Response Dose Assessment System(ERDAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Randolph J.; Lambert, Winifred C.; Manobianco, John T.; Taylor, Gregory E.; Wheeler, Mark M.; Yersavich, Ann M.

1996-01-01

The emergency response dose assessment system (ERDAS) is a protype software and hardware system configured to produce routine mesoscale meteorological forecasts and enhanced dispersion estimates on an operational basis for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) region. ERDAS provides emergency response guidance to operations at KSC/CCAS in the case of an accidental hazardous material release or an aborted vehicle launch. This report describes the evaluation of ERDAS including: evaluation of sea breeze predictions, comparison of launch plume location and concentration predictions, case study of a toxic release, evaluation of model sensitivity to varying input parameters, evaluation of the user interface, assessment of ERDA's operational capabilities, and a comparison of ERDAS models to the ocean breeze dry gultch diffusion model.

Forced response of mistuned bladed disks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierre, Christophe

1994-01-01

Small mistuning can cause large, catastrophic changes in blade vibrational response whereby the amplitudes of vibration of some blades may increase by several hundred percent. This can produce 'rogue' blades and HCF failure. The free and forced responses may be highly sensitive to mistuning, and the tuned system predictions may be qualitatively in error and grossly underestimate blade forced response and overestimate fatigue life. Manufacturing tolerances, material non-uniformities, nonidentical root fixtures, and in-service degradation result in blade-to-blade differences that destroy cyclic symmetry in bladed discs. Therefore, a credible forced response prediction system for turbomachinery vibration must take mistuning into account. This report addresses these problems, states several objectives, and introduces NASA research program thrusts concerning this problem. This report was given during the NASA LeRC Workshop on Forced Response in Turbomachinery in August of 1993.

Accuracy of stroke volume variation in predicting fluid responsiveness: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhongheng; Lu, Baolong; Sheng, Xiaoyan; Jin, Ni

2011-12-01

Stroke volume variation (SVV) appears to be a good predictor of fluid responsiveness in critically ill patients. However, a wide range of its predictive values has been reported in recent years. We therefore undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical trials that investigated the diagnostic value of SVV in predicting fluid responsiveness. Clinical investigations were identified from several sources, including MEDLINE, EMBASE, WANFANG, and CENTRAL. Original articles investigating the diagnostic value of SVV in predicting fluid responsiveness were considered to be eligible. Participants included critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) or operating room (OR) who require hemodynamic monitoring. A total of 568 patients from 23 studies were included in our final analysis. Baseline SVV was correlated to fluid responsiveness with a pooled correlation coefficient of 0.718. Across all settings, we found a diagnostic odds ratio of 18.4 for SVV to predict fluid responsiveness at a sensitivity of 0.81 and specificity of 0.80. The SVV was of diagnostic value for fluid responsiveness in OR or ICU patients monitored with the PiCCO or the FloTrac/Vigileo system, and in patients ventilated with tidal volume greater than 8 ml/kg. SVV is of diagnostic value in predicting fluid responsiveness in various settings.

A Dynamic Calibration Method for Experimental and Analytical Hub Load Comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreshock, Andrew R.; Thornburgh, Robert P.; Wilbur, Matthew L.

2017-01-01

This paper presents the results from an ongoing effort to produce improved correlation between analytical hub force and moment prediction and those measured during wind-tunnel testing on the Aeroelastic Rotor Experimental System (ARES), a conventional rotor testbed commonly used at the Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT). A frequency-dependent transformation between loads at the rotor hub and outputs of the testbed balance is produced from frequency response functions measured during vibration testing of the system. The resulting transformation is used as a dynamic calibration of the balance to transform hub loads predicted by comprehensive analysis into predicted balance outputs. In addition to detailing the transformation process, this paper also presents a set of wind-tunnel test cases, with comparisons between the measured balance outputs and transformed predictions from the comprehensive analysis code CAMRAD II. The modal response of the testbed is discussed and compared to a detailed finite-element model. Results reveal that the modal response of the testbed exhibits a number of characteristics that make accurate dynamic balance predictions challenging, even with the use of the balance transformation.

Predictive systems ecology

PubMed Central

Evans, Matthew R.; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J.; Dall, Sasha R. X.; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J.; Lewis, Simon L.; Mace, Georgina M.; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K. J.; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M. J.; Benton, Tim G.

2013-01-01

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive. PMID:24089332

Predictive systems ecology.

PubMed

Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

2013-11-22

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

Closed-loop spontaneous baroreflex transfer function is inappropriate for system identification of neural arc but partly accurate for peripheral arc: predictability analysis

PubMed Central

Kamiya, Atsunori; Kawada, Toru; Shimizu, Shuji; Sugimachi, Masaru

2011-01-01

Abstract Although the dynamic characteristics of the baroreflex system have been described by baroreflex transfer functions obtained from open-loop analysis, the predictability of time-series output dynamics from input signals, which should confirm the accuracy of system identification, remains to be elucidated. Moreover, despite theoretical concerns over closed-loop system identification, the accuracy and the predictability of the closed-loop spontaneous baroreflex transfer function have not been evaluated compared with the open-loop transfer function. Using urethane and α-chloralose anaesthetized, vagotomized and aortic-denervated rabbits (n = 10), we identified open-loop baroreflex transfer functions by recording renal sympathetic nerve activity (SNA) while varying the vascularly isolated intracarotid sinus pressure (CSP) according to a binary random (white-noise) sequence (operating pressure ± 20 mmHg), and using a simplified equation to calculate closed-loop-spontaneous baroreflex transfer function while matching CSP with systemic arterial pressure (AP). Our results showed that the open-loop baroreflex transfer functions for the neural and peripheral arcs predicted the time-series SNA and AP outputs from measured CSP and SNA inputs, with r2 of 0.8 ± 0.1 and 0.8 ± 0.1, respectively. In contrast, the closed-loop-spontaneous baroreflex transfer function for the neural arc was markedly different from the open-loop transfer function (enhanced gain increase and a phase lead), and did not predict the time-series SNA dynamics (r2; 0.1 ± 0.1). However, the closed-loop-spontaneous baroreflex transfer function of the peripheral arc partially matched the open-loop transfer function in gain and phase functions, and had limited but reasonable predictability of the time-series AP dynamics (r2, 0.7 ± 0.1). A numerical simulation suggested that a noise predominantly in the neural arc under resting conditions might be a possible mechanism responsible for our findings. Furthermore, the predictabilities of the neural arc transfer functions obtained in open-loop and closed-loop conditions were validated by closed-loop pharmacological (phenylephrine and nitroprusside infusions) pressure interventions. Time-series SNA responses to drug-induced AP changes predicted by the open-loop transfer function matched closely the measured responses (r2, 0.9 ± 0.1), whereas SNA responses predicted by closed-loop-spontaneous transfer function deviated greatly and were the inverse of measured responses (r, −0.8 ± 0.2). These results indicate that although the spontaneous baroreflex transfer function obtained by closed-loop analysis has been believed to represent the neural arc function, it is inappropriate for system identification of the neural arc but is essentially appropriate for the peripheral arc under resting conditions, when compared with open-loop analysis. PMID:21486839

Predicted persistence and response times of linear and cyclic volatile methylsiloxanes in global and local environments.

PubMed

Kim, Jaeshin; Mackay, Donald; Whelan, Michael John

2018-03-01

We investigated the response times of eight volatile methylsiloxanes (VMSs) in environmental systems at different scales from local to global, with a particular focus on overall loss rates after cessation of emissions. In part, this is driven by proposals to restrict the use of some of these compounds in certain products in Europe. The GloboPOP model estimated low absolute Arctic Contamination Potentials for all VMSs and rapid response times in all media except sediment. VMSs are predicted to be distributed predominantly in air where they react with OH radicals, leading to short response times. After cessation of emissions VMSs concentrations in the environment are expected to decrease rapidly from current levels. Response times in specific water and sediment systems were evaluated using a dynamic QWASI model. Response times were sensitive to both physico-chemical properties and environmental characteristics. Degradation was predicted to play the most important role in determining response times in water and sediment. In the case of the lowest molecular weight VMSs such as L2 and D3, response times were essentially independent of environmental characteristics due to fast hydrolysis in water and sediment. However, response times for the other VMSs are system-specific. They are relatively short in shallow water bodies but increase with depth due to the diminishing role of volatilization on concentration change as volume to surface area ratio increases. In sediment, degradation and resuspension rates also contribute most to the response times. The estimated response times for local environments are useful for planning future monitoring programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A priori Prediction of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Response and Survival in Breast Cancer Patients using Quantitative Ultrasound

PubMed Central

Tadayyon, Hadi; Sannachi, Lakshmanan; Gangeh, Mehrdad J.; Kim, Christina; Ghandi, Sonal; Trudeau, Maureen; Pritchard, Kathleen; Tran, William T.; Slodkowska, Elzbieta; Sadeghi-Naini, Ali; Czarnota, Gregory J.

2017-01-01

Quantitative ultrasound (QUS) can probe tissue structure and analyze tumour characteristics. Using a 6-MHz ultrasound system, radiofrequency data were acquired from 56 locally advanced breast cancer patients prior to their neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and QUS texture features were computed from regions of interest in tumour cores and their margins as potential predictive and prognostic indicators. Breast tumour molecular features were also collected and used for analysis. A multiparametric QUS model was constructed, which demonstrated a response prediction accuracy of 88% and ability to predict patient 5-year survival rates (p = 0.01). QUS features demonstrated superior performance in comparison to molecular markers and the combination of QUS and molecular markers did not improve response prediction. This study demonstrates, for the first time, that non-invasive QUS features in the core and margin of breast tumours can indicate breast cancer response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and predict five-year recurrence-free survival. PMID:28401902

A priori Prediction of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Response and Survival in Breast Cancer Patients using Quantitative Ultrasound.

PubMed

Tadayyon, Hadi; Sannachi, Lakshmanan; Gangeh, Mehrdad J; Kim, Christina; Ghandi, Sonal; Trudeau, Maureen; Pritchard, Kathleen; Tran, William T; Slodkowska, Elzbieta; Sadeghi-Naini, Ali; Czarnota, Gregory J

2017-04-12

Quantitative ultrasound (QUS) can probe tissue structure and analyze tumour characteristics. Using a 6-MHz ultrasound system, radiofrequency data were acquired from 56 locally advanced breast cancer patients prior to their neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and QUS texture features were computed from regions of interest in tumour cores and their margins as potential predictive and prognostic indicators. Breast tumour molecular features were also collected and used for analysis. A multiparametric QUS model was constructed, which demonstrated a response prediction accuracy of 88% and ability to predict patient 5-year survival rates (p = 0.01). QUS features demonstrated superior performance in comparison to molecular markers and the combination of QUS and molecular markers did not improve response prediction. This study demonstrates, for the first time, that non-invasive QUS features in the core and margin of breast tumours can indicate breast cancer response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and predict five-year recurrence-free survival.

Generalized Predictive Control of Dynamic Systems with Rigid-Body Modes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kvaternik, Raymond G.

2013-01-01

Numerical simulations to assess the effectiveness of Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) for active control of dynamic systems having rigid-body modes are presented. GPC is a linear, time-invariant, multi-input/multi-output predictive control method that uses an ARX model to characterize the system and to design the controller. Although the method can accommodate both embedded (implicit) and explicit feedforward paths for incorporation of disturbance effects, only the case of embedded feedforward in which the disturbances are assumed to be unknown is considered here. Results from numerical simulations using mathematical models of both a free-free three-degree-of-freedom mass-spring-dashpot system and the XV-15 tiltrotor research aircraft are presented. In regulation mode operation, which calls for zero system response in the presence of disturbances, the simulations showed reductions of nearly 100%. In tracking mode operations, where the system is commanded to follow a specified path, the GPC controllers produced the desired responses, even in the presence of disturbances.

Predicting Bird Response to Alternative Management Scenarios on a Ranch in Campeche, México

Treesearch

Paul A. Wood; Deanna K. Dawson; John R. Sauer; Marcia H. Wilson

2005-01-01

We developed models to predict the potential response of wintering Neotropical migrant and resident bird species to alternative management scenarios, using data from point counts of birds along with habitat variables measured or estimated from remotely sensed data in a Geographic Information System. Expected numbers of occurrences at points were calculated for 100...

Remote Health Monitoring Outcome Success Prediction Using Baseline and First Month Intervention Data.

PubMed

Alshurafa, Nabil; Sideris, Costas; Pourhomayoun, Mohammad; Kalantarian, Haik; Sarrafzadeh, Majid; Eastwood, Jo-Ann

2017-03-01

Remote health monitoring (RHM) systems are becoming more widely adopted by clinicians and hospitals to remotely monitor and communicate with patients while optimizing clinician time, decreasing hospital costs, and improving quality of care. In the Women's heart health study (WHHS), we developed Wanda-cardiovascular disease (CVD), where participants received healthy lifestyle education followed by six months of technology support and reinforcement. Wanda-CVD is a smartphone-based RHM system designed to assist participants in reducing identified CVD risk factors through wireless coaching using feedback and prompts as social support. Many participants benefitted from this RHM system. In response to the variance in participants' success, we developed a framework to identify classification schemes that predicted successful and unsuccessful participants. We analyzed both contextual baseline features and data from the first month of intervention such as activity, blood pressure, and questionnaire responses transmitted through the smartphone. A prediction tool can aid clinicians and scientists in identifying participants who may optimally benefit from the RHM system. Targeting therapies could potentially save healthcare costs, clinician, and participant time and resources. Our classification scheme yields RHM outcome success predictions with an F-measure of 91.9%, and identifies behaviors during the first month of intervention that help determine outcome success. We also show an improvement in prediction by using intervention-based smartphone data. Results from the WHHS study demonstrates that factors such as the variation in first month intervention response to the consumption of nuts, beans, and seeds in the diet help predict patient RHM protocol outcome success in a group of young Black women ages 25-45.

On the prediction of the human response: a recycled mechanistic pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic approach.

PubMed

Meno-Tetang, Guy M L; Lowe, Philip J

2005-03-01

Although it is routine to predict the blood or plasma pharmacokinetics of compounds for man based upon preclinical studies, the real value of such predictions only comes when linked to drug effects. In the first example, the immunomodulator, FTY720, the first sphingosine-1-phosphate receptor agonist, stimulates the sequestration of lymphocytes into lymph nodes thus removing cells from blood circulation. A prior physiology-based pharmacokinetic model fitted the concentration-time course of FTY720 in rats. This was connected to an indirect response model of the lymphocyte system to characterise the cell trafficking effects. The IC(50) of FTY720 was different in the rat compared with the monkey; man was assumed to be similar to the monkey. The systemic lymphocyte half-lives were also different between species. To make predictions of the pharmacodynamic behaviour for man, two elements are required, i) systemic exposure, in this case from an upscaled physiology based model, and ii) an estimate of lymphocyte turnover in man, gained from the literature from other drug treatments. Predictions compared well with clinical results. The second example is the monoclonal antibody Xolair, designed to bind immunoglobulin E for atopic diseases. A mechanism based two-site binding model described the kinetics of both Xolair and endogenous IgE. This model has been reused for other monoclonal antibodies designed to bind fluid-phase ligands. Sensitivity analysis shows that if differences across species in the kinetics of the endogenous system are not accounted for, then pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic models may give misleading predictions of the time course and extent of the response.

State Space Formulation of Nonlinear Vibration Responses Collected from a Dynamic Rotor-Bearing System: An Extension of Bearing Diagnostics to Bearing Prognostics

PubMed Central

Tse, Peter W.; Wang, Dong

2017-01-01

Bearings are widely used in various industries to support rotating shafts. Their failures accelerate failures of other adjacent components and may cause unexpected machine breakdowns. In recent years, nonlinear vibration responses collected from a dynamic rotor-bearing system have been widely analyzed for bearing diagnostics. Numerous methods have been proposed to identify different bearing faults. However, these methods are unable to predict the future health conditions of bearings. To extend bearing diagnostics to bearing prognostics, this paper reports the design of a state space formulation of nonlinear vibration responses collected from a dynamic rotor-bearing system in order to intelligently predict bearing remaining useful life (RUL). Firstly, analyses of nonlinear vibration responses were conducted to construct a bearing health indicator (BHI) so as to assess the current bearing health condition. Secondly, a state space model of the BHI was developed to mathematically track the health evolution of the BHI. Thirdly, unscented particle filtering was used to predict bearing RUL. Lastly, a new bearing acceleration life testing setup was designed to collect natural bearing degradation data, which were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed bearing prognostic method. Results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed bearing prognostic method is promising and the proposed bearing prognostic method is able to reflect future bearing health conditions. PMID:28216586

State Space Formulation of Nonlinear Vibration Responses Collected from a Dynamic Rotor-Bearing System: An Extension of Bearing Diagnostics to Bearing Prognostics.

PubMed

Tse, Peter W; Wang, Dong

2017-02-14

Bearings are widely used in various industries to support rotating shafts. Their failures accelerate failures of other adjacent components and may cause unexpected machine breakdowns. In recent years, nonlinear vibration responses collected from a dynamic rotor-bearing system have been widely analyzed for bearing diagnostics. Numerous methods have been proposed to identify different bearing faults. However, these methods are unable to predict the future health conditions of bearings. To extend bearing diagnostics to bearing prognostics, this paper reports the design of a state space formulation of nonlinear vibration responses collected from a dynamic rotor-bearing system in order to intelligently predict bearing remaining useful life (RUL). Firstly, analyses of nonlinear vibration responses were conducted to construct a bearing health indicator (BHI) so as to assess the current bearing health condition. Secondly, a state space model of the BHI was developed to mathematically track the health evolution of the BHI. Thirdly, unscented particle filtering was used to predict bearing RUL. Lastly, a new bearing acceleration life testing setup was designed to collect natural bearing degradation data, which were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed bearing prognostic method. Results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed bearing prognostic method is promising and the proposed bearing prognostic method is able to reflect future bearing health conditions.

Coupled loads analysis for Space Shuttle payloads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eldridge, J.

1992-01-01

Described here is a method for determining the transient response of, and the resultant loads in, a system exposed to predicted external forces. In this case, the system consists of four racks mounted on the inside of a space station resource node module (SSRNMO) which is mounted in the payload bay of the space shuttle. The predicted external forces are forcing functions which envelope worst case forces applied to the shuttle during liftoff and landing. This analysis, called a coupled loads analysis, is used to couple the payload and shuttle models together, determine the transient response of the system, and then recover payload loads, payload accelerations, and payload to shuttle interface forces.

Translating Addictions Research into Evidence-based Practice: the Polaris CD Outcomes Management System

PubMed Central

Toche-Manley, L.; Grissom, G.; Dietzen, L.; Sangsland, S.

2011-01-01

Converting the findings from addictions studies into information actionable by (non-research) treatment programs is important to improving program outcomes. This paper describes the translation of the findings of studies on Patient-Services matching, prediction of patient response to treatment (Expected Treatment Response) and prediction of dropout to provide evidence-based decision support in routine treatment. The findings of the studies and their application to the development of an outcomes management system are described. Implementation issues in a network of addictions treatment programs are discussed. The work illustrates how outcomes management systems can play an important role in translating research into practice. PMID:21324606

Theory of Mind: A Neural Prediction Problem

PubMed Central

Koster-Hale, Jorie; Saxe, Rebecca

2014-01-01

Predictive coding posits that neural systems make forward-looking predictions about incoming information. Neural signals contain information not about the currently perceived stimulus, but about the difference between the observed and the predicted stimulus. We propose to extend the predictive coding framework from high-level sensory processing to the more abstract domain of theory of mind; that is, to inferences about others’ goals, thoughts, and personalities. We review evidence that, across brain regions, neural responses to depictions of human behavior, from biological motion to trait descriptions, exhibit a key signature of predictive coding: reduced activity to predictable stimuli. We discuss how future experiments could distinguish predictive coding from alternative explanations of this response profile. This framework may provide an important new window on the neural computations underlying theory of mind. PMID:24012000

Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Moran, Edward H.; Dey, Rima; Mader, Helmut; Kraml, Julia

2012-01-01

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

A competitive binding model predicts the response of mammalian olfactory receptors to mixtures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Vijay; Murphy, Nicolle; Mainland, Joel; Balasubramanian, Vijay

Most natural odors are complex mixtures of many odorants, but due to the large number of possible mixtures only a small fraction can be studied experimentally. To get a realistic understanding of the olfactory system we need methods to predict responses to complex mixtures from single odorant responses. Focusing on mammalian olfactory receptors (ORs in mouse and human), we propose a simple biophysical model for odor-receptor interactions where only one odor molecule can bind to a receptor at a time. The resulting competition for occupancy of the receptor accounts for the experimentally observed nonlinear mixture responses. We first fit a dose-response relationship to individual odor responses and then use those parameters in a competitive binding model to predict mixture responses. With no additional parameters, the model predicts responses of 15 (of 18 tested) receptors to within 10 - 30 % of the observed values, for mixtures with 2, 3 and 12 odorants chosen from a panel of 30. Extensions of our basic model with odorant interactions lead to additional nonlinearities observed in mixture response like suppression, cooperativity, and overshadowing. Our model provides a systematic framework for characterizing and parameterizing such mixing nonlinearities from mixture response data.

Homeostatic Regulation of Memory Systems and Adaptive Decisions

PubMed Central

Mizumori, Sheri JY; Jo, Yong Sang

2013-01-01

While it is clear that many brain areas process mnemonic information, understanding how their interactions result in continuously adaptive behaviors has been a challenge. A homeostatic-regulated prediction model of memory is presented that considers the existence of a single memory system that is based on a multilevel coordinated and integrated network (from cells to neural systems) that determines the extent to which events and outcomes occur as predicted. The “multiple memory systems of the brain” have in common output that signals errors in the prediction of events and/or their outcomes, although these signals differ in terms of what the error signal represents (e.g., hippocampus: context prediction errors vs. midbrain/striatum: reward prediction errors). The prefrontal cortex likely plays a pivotal role in the coordination of prediction analysis within and across prediction brain areas. By virtue of its widespread control and influence, and intrinsic working memory mechanisms. Thus, the prefrontal cortex supports the flexible processing needed to generate adaptive behaviors and predict future outcomes. It is proposed that prefrontal cortex continually and automatically produces adaptive responses according to homeostatic regulatory principles: prefrontal cortex may serve as a controller that is intrinsically driven to maintain in prediction areas an experience-dependent firing rate set point that ensures adaptive temporally and spatially resolved neural responses to future prediction errors. This same drive by prefrontal cortex may also restore set point firing rates after deviations (i.e. prediction errors) are detected. In this way, prefrontal cortex contributes to reducing uncertainty in prediction systems. An emergent outcome of this homeostatic view may be the flexible and adaptive control that prefrontal cortex is known to implement (i.e. working memory) in the most challenging of situations. Compromise to any of the prediction circuits should result in rigid and suboptimal decision making and memory as seen in addiction and neurological disease. © 2013 The Authors. Hippocampus Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:23929788

Homeostatic regulation of memory systems and adaptive decisions.

PubMed

Mizumori, Sheri J Y; Jo, Yong Sang

2013-11-01

While it is clear that many brain areas process mnemonic information, understanding how their interactions result in continuously adaptive behaviors has been a challenge. A homeostatic-regulated prediction model of memory is presented that considers the existence of a single memory system that is based on a multilevel coordinated and integrated network (from cells to neural systems) that determines the extent to which events and outcomes occur as predicted. The "multiple memory systems of the brain" have in common output that signals errors in the prediction of events and/or their outcomes, although these signals differ in terms of what the error signal represents (e.g., hippocampus: context prediction errors vs. midbrain/striatum: reward prediction errors). The prefrontal cortex likely plays a pivotal role in the coordination of prediction analysis within and across prediction brain areas. By virtue of its widespread control and influence, and intrinsic working memory mechanisms. Thus, the prefrontal cortex supports the flexible processing needed to generate adaptive behaviors and predict future outcomes. It is proposed that prefrontal cortex continually and automatically produces adaptive responses according to homeostatic regulatory principles: prefrontal cortex may serve as a controller that is intrinsically driven to maintain in prediction areas an experience-dependent firing rate set point that ensures adaptive temporally and spatially resolved neural responses to future prediction errors. This same drive by prefrontal cortex may also restore set point firing rates after deviations (i.e. prediction errors) are detected. In this way, prefrontal cortex contributes to reducing uncertainty in prediction systems. An emergent outcome of this homeostatic view may be the flexible and adaptive control that prefrontal cortex is known to implement (i.e. working memory) in the most challenging of situations. Compromise to any of the prediction circuits should result in rigid and suboptimal decision making and memory as seen in addiction and neurological disease. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Host identity matters in the amphibian-Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis system: fine-scale patterns of variation in responses to a multi-host pathogen

Treesearch

Stephanie Gervasi; Carmen Gondhalekar; Deanna H. Olson; Andrew R. Blaustein

2013-01-01

Species composition within ecological assemblages can drive disease dynamics including pathogen invasion, spread, and persistence. In multi-host pathogen systems, interspecific variation in responses to infection creates important context dependency when predicting the outcome of disease. Here, we examine the responses of three sympatric host species to a single fungal...

Predictive display design for the vehicles with time delay in dynamic response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efremov, A. V.; Tiaglik, M. S.; Irgaleev, I. H.; Efremov, E. V.

2018-02-01

The two ways for the improvement of flying qualities are considered: the predictive display (PD) and the predictive display integrated with the flight control system (FCS). The both ways allow to transforming the controlled element dynamics in the crossover frequency range, to improve the accuracy of tracking and to suppress the effect of time delay in the vehicle response too. The technique for optimization of the predictive law is applied to the landing task. The results of the mathematical modeling and experimental investigations carried out for this task are considered in the paper.

High Resolution Flash Flood Forecasting Using a Wireless Sensor Network in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartos, M. D.; Kerkez, B.; Noh, S.; Seo, D. J.

2017-12-01

In this study, we develop and evaluate a high resolution urban flash flood monitoring system using a wireless sensor network (WSN), a real-time rainfall-runoff model, and spatially-explicit radar rainfall predictions. Flooding is the leading cause of natural disaster fatalities in the US, with flash flooding in particular responsible for a majority of flooding deaths. While many riverine flood models have been operationalized into early warning systems, there is currently no model that is capable of reliably predicting flash floods in urban areas. Urban flash floods are particularly difficult to model due to a lack of rainfall and runoff data at appropriate scales. To address this problem, we develop a wide-area flood-monitoring wireless sensor network for the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, and use this network to characterize rainfall-runoff response over multiple heterogeneous catchments. First, we deploy a network of 22 wireless sensor nodes to collect real-time stream stage measurements over catchments ranging from 2-80 km2 in size. Next, we characterize the rainfall-runoff response of each catchment by combining stream stage data with gage and radar-based precipitation measurements. Finally, we demonstrate the potential for real-time flash flood prediction by joining the derived rainfall-runoff models with real-time radar rainfall predictions. We find that runoff response is highly heterogeneous among catchments, with large variabilities in runoff response detected even among nearby gages. However, when spatially-explicit rainfall fields are included, spatial variability in runoff response is largely captured. This result highlights the importance of increased spatial coverage for flash flood prediction.

DoD-GEIS Rift Valley Fever Monitoring and Prediction System as a Tool for Defense and US Diplomacy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anyamba, Assaf; Tucker, Compton J.; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Witt, Clara J.; Gaydos, Joel C.; Russell, Kevin L.

2011-01-01

Over the last 10 years the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center's Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (GEIS) partnering with NASA'S Goddard Space Flight Center and USDA's USDA-Center for Medical, Agricultural & Veterinary Entomology established and have operated the Rift Valley fever Monitoring and Prediction System to monitor, predict and assess the risk of Rift Valley fever outbreaks and other vector-borne diseases over Africa and the Middle East. This system is built on legacy DoD basic research conducted by Walter Reed Army Institute of Research overseas laboratory (US Army Medical Research Unit-Kenya) and the operational satellite environmental monitoring by NASA GSFC. Over the last 10 years of operation the system has predicted outbreaks of Rift Valley fever in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, South Africa and Mauritania. The ability to predict an outbreak several months before it occurs provides early warning to protect deployed forces, enhance public health in concerned countries and is a valuable tool use.d by the State Department in US Diplomacy. At the international level the system has been used by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAD) and the World Health Organization (WHO) to support their monitoring, surveillance and response programs in the livestock sector and human health. This project is a successful testament of leveraging resources of different federal agencies to achieve objectives of force health protection, health and diplomacy.

Combined mixture-process variable approach: a suitable statistical tool for nanovesicular systems optimization.

PubMed

Habib, Basant A; AbouGhaly, Mohamed H H

2016-06-01

This study aims to illustrate the applicability of combined mixture-process variable (MPV) design and modeling for optimization of nanovesicular systems. The D-optimal experimental plan studied the influence of three mixture components (MCs) and two process variables (PVs) on lercanidipine transfersomes. The MCs were phosphatidylcholine (A), sodium glycocholate (B) and lercanidipine hydrochloride (C), while the PVs were glycerol amount in the hydration mixture (D) and sonication time (E). The studied responses were Y1: particle size, Y2: zeta potential and Y3: entrapment efficiency percent (EE%). Polynomial equations were used to study the influence of MCs and PVs on each response. Response surface methodology and multiple response optimization were applied to optimize the formulation with the goals of minimizing Y1 and maximizing Y2 and Y3. The obtained polynomial models had prediction R(2) values of 0.645, 0.947 and 0.795 for Y1, Y2 and Y3, respectively. Contour, Piepel's response trace, perturbation, and interaction plots were drawn for responses representation. The optimized formulation, A: 265 mg, B: 10 mg, C: 40 mg, D: zero g and E: 120 s, had desirability of 0.9526. The actual response values for the optimized formulation were within the two-sided 95% prediction intervals and were close to the predicted values with maximum percent deviation of 6.2%. This indicates the validity of combined MPV design and modeling for optimization of transfersomal formulations as an example of nanovesicular systems.

Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Methot, Rick; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Eveson, J. Paige; Holsman, Kirstin; Miller, Timothy J.; Gaichas, Sarah; Gehlen, Marion; Pershing, Andrew; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, Tom; Eakin, C. Mark; Haltuch, Melissa A.; Séférian, Roland; Spillman, Claire M.; Hartog, Jason R.; Siedlecki, Samantha; Samhouri, Jameal F.; Muhling, Barbara; Asch, Rebecca G.; Pinsky, Malin L.; Saba, Vincent S.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Gaitan, Carlos F.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Alexander, Michael A.; Xue, Yan; Pegion, Kathleen V.; Lynch, Patrick; Payne, Mark R.; Kristiansen, Trond; Lehodey, Patrick; Werner, Francisco E.

2017-03-01

Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months to decades, before highlighting a range of pioneering case studies using climate predictions to inform LMR decisions. The success of these case studies suggests that many additional applications are possible. Progress, however, is limited by observational and modeling challenges. Priority developments include strengthening of the mechanistic linkages between climate and marine resource responses, development of LMR models able to explicitly represent such responses, integration of climate driven LMR dynamics in the multi-driver context within which marine resources exist, and improved prediction of ecosystem-relevant variables at the fine regional scales at which most marine resource decisions are made. While there are fundamental limits to predictability, continued advances in these areas have considerable potential to make LMR managers and industry decision more resilient to climate variability and help sustain valuable resources. Concerted dialog between scientists, LMR managers and industry is essential to realizing this potential.

Association of Elevated Reward Prediction Error Response With Weight Gain in Adolescent Anorexia Nervosa.

PubMed

DeGuzman, Marisa; Shott, Megan E; Yang, Tony T; Riederer, Justin; Frank, Guido K W

2017-06-01

Anorexia nervosa is a psychiatric disorder of unknown etiology. Understanding associations between behavior and neurobiology is important in treatment development. Using a novel monetary reward task during functional magnetic resonance brain imaging, the authors tested how brain reward learning in adolescent anorexia nervosa changes with weight restoration. Female adolescents with anorexia nervosa (N=21; mean age, 16.4 years [SD=1.9]) underwent functional MRI (fMRI) before and after treatment; similarly, healthy female control adolescents (N=21; mean age, 15.2 years [SD=2.4]) underwent fMRI on two occasions. Brain function was tested using the reward prediction error construct, a computational model for reward receipt and omission related to motivation and neural dopamine responsiveness. Compared with the control group, the anorexia nervosa group exhibited greater brain response 1) for prediction error regression within the caudate, ventral caudate/nucleus accumbens, and anterior and posterior insula, 2) to unexpected reward receipt in the anterior and posterior insula, and 3) to unexpected reward omission in the caudate body. Prediction error and unexpected reward omission response tended to normalize with treatment, while unexpected reward receipt response remained significantly elevated. Greater caudate prediction error response when underweight was associated with lower weight gain during treatment. Punishment sensitivity correlated positively with ventral caudate prediction error response. Reward system responsiveness is elevated in adolescent anorexia nervosa when underweight and after weight restoration. Heightened prediction error activity in brain reward regions may represent a phenotype of adolescent anorexia nervosa that does not respond well to treatment. Prediction error response could be a neurobiological marker of illness severity that can indicate individual treatment needs.

Association of Elevated Reward Prediction Error Response With Weight Gain in Adolescent Anorexia Nervosa

PubMed Central

DeGuzman, Marisa; Shott, Megan E.; Yang, Tony T.; Riederer, Justin; Frank, Guido K.W.

2017-01-01

Objective Anorexia nervosa is a psychiatric disorder of unknown etiology. Understanding associations between behavior and neurobiology is important in treatment development. Using a novel monetary reward task during functional magnetic resonance brain imaging, the authors tested how brain reward learning in adolescent anorexia nervosa changes with weight restoration. Method Female adolescents with anorexia nervosa (N=21; mean age, 15.2 years [SD=2.4]) underwent functional MRI (fMRI) before and after treatment; similarly, healthy female control adolescents (N=21; mean age, 16.4 years [SD=1.9]) underwent fMRI on two occasions. Brain function was tested using the reward prediction error construct, a computational model for reward receipt and omission related to motivation and neural dopamine responsiveness. Results Compared with the control group, the anorexia nervosa group exhibited greater brain response 1) for prediction error regression within the caudate, ventral caudate/nucleus accumbens, and anterior and posterior insula, 2) to unexpected reward receipt in the anterior and posterior insula, and 3) to unexpected reward omission in the caudate body. Prediction error and unexpected reward omission response tended to normalize with treatment, while unexpected reward receipt response remained significantly elevated. Greater caudate prediction error response when underweight was associated with lower weight gain during treatment. Punishment sensitivity correlated positively with ventral caudate prediction error response. Conclusions Reward system responsiveness is elevated in adolescent anorexia nervosa when underweight and after weight restoration. Heightened prediction error activity in brain reward regions may represent a phenotype of adolescent anorexia nervosa that does not respond well to treatment. Prediction error response could be a neurobiological marker of illness severity that can indicate individual treatment needs. PMID:28231717

Investigating Nigerian Primary School Teachers' Preparedness to Adopt Personal Response System in ESL Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Agbatogun, Alaba Olaoluwakotansibe

2012-01-01

This study investigated the extent to which computer literacy dimensions (computer general knowledge, documents and documentations, communication and surfing as well as data inquiry), computer use and academic qualification as independent variables predicted primary school teachers' attitude towards the integration of Personal Response System in…

The spatial structure of a nonlinear receptive field.

PubMed

Schwartz, Gregory W; Okawa, Haruhisa; Dunn, Felice A; Morgan, Josh L; Kerschensteiner, Daniel; Wong, Rachel O; Rieke, Fred

2012-11-01

Understanding a sensory system implies the ability to predict responses to a variety of inputs from a common model. In the retina, this includes predicting how the integration of signals across visual space shapes the outputs of retinal ganglion cells. Existing models of this process generalize poorly to predict responses to new stimuli. This failure arises in part from properties of the ganglion cell response that are not well captured by standard receptive-field mapping techniques: nonlinear spatial integration and fine-scale heterogeneities in spatial sampling. Here we characterize a ganglion cell's spatial receptive field using a mechanistic model based on measurements of the physiological properties and connectivity of only the primary excitatory circuitry of the retina. The resulting simplified circuit model successfully predicts ganglion-cell responses to a variety of spatial patterns and thus provides a direct correspondence between circuit connectivity and retinal output.

Lock-in amplifier error prediction and correction in frequency sweep measurements.

PubMed

Sonnaillon, Maximiliano Osvaldo; Bonetto, Fabian Jose

2007-01-01

This article proposes an analytical algorithm for predicting errors in lock-in amplifiers (LIAs) working with time-varying reference frequency. Furthermore, a simple method for correcting such errors is presented. The reference frequency can be swept in order to measure the frequency response of a system within a given spectrum. The continuous variation of the reference frequency produces a measurement error that depends on three factors: the sweep speed, the LIA low-pass filters, and the frequency response of the measured system. The proposed error prediction algorithm is based on the final value theorem of the Laplace transform. The correction method uses a double-sweep measurement. A mathematical analysis is presented and validated with computational simulations and experimental measurements.

Clinical Predictive Modeling Development and Deployment through FHIR Web Services.

PubMed

Khalilia, Mohammed; Choi, Myung; Henderson, Amelia; Iyengar, Sneha; Braunstein, Mark; Sun, Jimeng

2015-01-01

Clinical predictive modeling involves two challenging tasks: model development and model deployment. In this paper we demonstrate a software architecture for developing and deploying clinical predictive models using web services via the Health Level 7 (HL7) Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) standard. The services enable model development using electronic health records (EHRs) stored in OMOP CDM databases and model deployment for scoring individual patients through FHIR resources. The MIMIC2 ICU dataset and a synthetic outpatient dataset were transformed into OMOP CDM databases for predictive model development. The resulting predictive models are deployed as FHIR resources, which receive requests of patient information, perform prediction against the deployed predictive model and respond with prediction scores. To assess the practicality of this approach we evaluated the response and prediction time of the FHIR modeling web services. We found the system to be reasonably fast with one second total response time per patient prediction.

Clinical Predictive Modeling Development and Deployment through FHIR Web Services

PubMed Central

Khalilia, Mohammed; Choi, Myung; Henderson, Amelia; Iyengar, Sneha; Braunstein, Mark; Sun, Jimeng

2015-01-01

Clinical predictive modeling involves two challenging tasks: model development and model deployment. In this paper we demonstrate a software architecture for developing and deploying clinical predictive models using web services via the Health Level 7 (HL7) Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) standard. The services enable model development using electronic health records (EHRs) stored in OMOP CDM databases and model deployment for scoring individual patients through FHIR resources. The MIMIC2 ICU dataset and a synthetic outpatient dataset were transformed into OMOP CDM databases for predictive model development. The resulting predictive models are deployed as FHIR resources, which receive requests of patient information, perform prediction against the deployed predictive model and respond with prediction scores. To assess the practicality of this approach we evaluated the response and prediction time of the FHIR modeling web services. We found the system to be reasonably fast with one second total response time per patient prediction. PMID:26958207

Modeling and performance assessment in QinetiQ of EO and IR airborne reconnaissance systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, John W.; Potter, Gary E.

2002-11-01

QinetiQ are the technical authority responsible for specifying the performance requirements for the procurement of airborne reconnaissance systems, on behalf of the UK MoD. They are also responsible for acceptance of delivered systems, overseeing and verifying the installed system performance as predicted and then assessed by the contractor. Measures of functional capability are central to these activities. The conduct of these activities utilises the broad technical insight and wide range of analysis tools and models available within QinetiQ. This paper focuses on the tools, methods and models that are applicable to systems based on EO and IR sensors. The tools, methods and models are described, and representative output for systems that QinetiQ has been responsible for is presented. The principle capability applicable to EO and IR airborne reconnaissance systems is the STAR (Simulation Tools for Airborne Reconnaissance) suite of models. STAR generates predictions of performance measures such as GRD (Ground Resolved Distance) and GIQE (General Image Quality) NIIRS (National Imagery Interpretation Rating Scales). It also generates images representing sensor output, using the scene generation software CAMEO-SIM and the imaging sensor model EMERALD. The simulated image 'quality' is fully correlated with the predicted non-imaging performance measures. STAR also generates image and table data that is compliant with STANAG 7023, which may be used to test ground station functionality.

Driver Vision Based Perception-Response Time Prediction and Assistance Model on Mountain Highway Curve.

PubMed

Li, Yi; Chen, Yuren

2016-12-30

To make driving assistance system more humanized, this study focused on the prediction and assistance of drivers' perception-response time on mountain highway curves. Field tests were conducted to collect real-time driving data and driver vision information. A driver-vision lane model quantified curve elements in drivers' vision. A multinomial log-linear model was established to predict perception-response time with traffic/road environment information, driver-vision lane model, and mechanical status (last second). A corresponding assistance model showed a positive impact on drivers' perception-response times on mountain highway curves. Model results revealed that the driver-vision lane model and visual elements did have important influence on drivers' perception-response time. Compared with roadside passive road safety infrastructure, proper visual geometry design, timely visual guidance, and visual information integrality of a curve are significant factors for drivers' perception-response time.

Investigation of air cleaning system response to accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrae, R.W.; Bolstad, J.W.; Foster, R.D.

1980-01-01

Air cleaning system response to the stress of accident conditions are being investigated. A program overview and hghlight recent results of our investigation are presented. The program includes both analytical and experimental investigations. Computer codes for predicting effects of tornados, explosions, fires, and material transport are described. The test facilities used to obtain supportive experimental data to define structural integrity and confinement effectiveness of ventilation system components are described. Examples of experimental results for code verification, blower response to tornado transients, and filter response to tornado and explosion transients are reported.

Extrapolation to Nonequilibrium from Coarse-Grained Response Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Urna; Helden, Laurent; Krüger, Matthias

2018-05-01

Nonlinear response theory, in contrast to linear cases, involves (dynamical) details, and this makes application to many-body systems challenging. From the microscopic starting point we obtain an exact response theory for a small number of coarse-grained degrees of freedom. With it, an extrapolation scheme uses near-equilibrium measurements to predict far-from-equilibrium properties (here, second order responses). Because it does not involve system details, this approach can be applied to many-body systems. It is illustrated in a four-state model and in the near critical Ising model.

Understanding the biological underpinnings of ecohydrological processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huxman, T. E.; Scott, R. L.; Barron-Gafford, G. A.; Hamerlynck, E. P.; Jenerette, D.; Tissue, D. T.; Breshears, D. D.; Saleska, S. R.

2012-12-01

Climate change presents a challenge for predicting ecosystem response, as multiple factors drive both the physical and life processes happening on the land surface and their interactions result in a complex, evolving coupled system. For example, changes in surface temperature and precipitation influence near-surface hydrology through impacts on system energy balance, affecting a range of physical processes. These changes in the salient features of the environment affect biological processes and elicit responses along the hierarchy of life (biochemistry to community composition). Many of these structural or process changes can alter patterns of soil water-use and influence land surface characteristics that affect local climate. Of the many features that affect our ability to predict the future dynamics of ecosystems, it is this hierarchical response of life that creates substantial complexity. Advances in the ability to predict or understand aspects of demography help describe thresholds in coupled ecohydrological system. Disentangling the physical and biological features that underlie land surface dynamics following disturbance are allowing a better understanding of the partitioning of water in the time-course of recovery. Better predicting the timing of phenology and key seasonal events allow for a more accurate description of the full functional response of the land surface to climate. In addition, explicitly considering the hierarchical structural features of life are helping to describe complex time-dependent behavior in ecosystems. However, despite this progress, we have yet to build an ability to fully account for the generalization of the main features of living systems into models that can describe ecohydrological processes, especially acclimation, assembly and adaptation. This is unfortunate, given that many key ecosystem services are functions of these coupled co-evolutionary processes. To date, both the lack of controlled measurements and experimentation has precluded determination of sufficient theoretical development. Understanding the land-surface response and feedback to climate change requires a mechanistic understanding of the coupling of ecological and hydrological processes and an expansion of theory from the life sciences to appropriately contribute to the broader Earth system science goal.

Prediction-based dynamic load-sharing heuristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goswami, Kumar K.; Devarakonda, Murthy; Iyer, Ravishankar K.

1993-01-01

The authors present dynamic load-sharing heuristics that use predicted resource requirements of processes to manage workloads in a distributed system. A previously developed statistical pattern-recognition method is employed for resource prediction. While nonprediction-based heuristics depend on a rapidly changing system status, the new heuristics depend on slowly changing program resource usage patterns. Furthermore, prediction-based heuristics can be more effective since they use future requirements rather than just the current system state. Four prediction-based heuristics, two centralized and two distributed, are presented. Using trace driven simulations, they are compared against random scheduling and two effective nonprediction based heuristics. Results show that the prediction-based centralized heuristics achieve up to 30 percent better response times than the nonprediction centralized heuristic, and that the prediction-based distributed heuristics achieve up to 50 percent improvements relative to their nonprediction counterpart.

Operational atmospheric modeling system CARIS for effective emergency response associated with hazardous chemical releases in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Cheol-Hee; Park, Jin-Ho; Park, Cheol-Jin; Na, Jin-Gyun

2004-03-01

The Chemical Accidents Response Information System (CARIS) was developed at the Center for Chemical Safety Management in South Korea in order to track and predict the dispersion of hazardous chemicals in the case of an accident or terrorist attack involving chemical companies. The main objective of CARIS is to facilitate an efficient emergency response to hazardous chemical accidents by rapidly providing key information in the decision-making process. In particular, the atmospheric modeling system implemented in CARIS, which is composed of a real-time numerical weather forecasting model and an air pollution dispersion model, can be used as a tool to forecast concentrations and to provide a wide range of assessments associated with various hazardous chemicals in real time. This article introduces the components of CARIS and describes its operational modeling system. Some examples of the operational modeling system and its use for emergency preparedness are presented and discussed. Finally, this article evaluates the current numerical weather prediction model for Korea.

Rotor systems research aircraft risk-reduction shake test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wellman, J. Brent

1990-01-01

A shake test and an extensive analysis of results were performed to evaluate the possibility of and the method for dynamically calibrating the Rotor Systems Research Aircraft (RSRA). The RSRA airframe was subjected to known vibratory loads in several degrees of freedom and the responses of many aircraft transducers were recorded. Analysis of the transducer responses using the technique of dynamic force determination showed that the RSRA, when used as a dynamic measurement system, could predict, a posteriori, an excitation force in a single axis to an accuracy of about 5 percent and sometimes better. As the analysis was broadened to include multiple degrees of freedom for the excitation force, the predictive ability of the measurement system degraded to about 20 percent, with the error occasionally reaching 100 percent. The poor performance of the measurement system is explained by the nonlinear response of the RSRA to vibratory forces and the inadequacy of the particular method used in accounting for this nonlinearity.

Comparison of the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score and the Glasgow Coma Scale in predicting mortality in critically ill patients*.

PubMed

Wijdicks, Eelco F M; Kramer, Andrew A; Rohs, Thomas; Hanna, Susan; Sadaka, Farid; O'Brien, Jacklyn; Bible, Shonna; Dickess, Stacy M; Foss, Michelle

2015-02-01

Impaired consciousness has been incorporated in prediction models that are used in the ICU. The Glasgow Coma Scale has value but is incomplete and cannot be assessed in intubated patients accurately. The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score may be a better predictor of mortality in critically ill patients. Thirteen ICUs at five U.S. hospitals. One thousand six hundred ninety-five consecutive unselected ICU admissions during a six-month period in 2012. Glasgow Coma Scale and Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score were recorded within 1 hour of admission. Baseline characteristics and physiologic components of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation system, as well as mortality were linked to Glasgow Coma Scale/Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score information. None. We recruited 1,695 critically ill patients, of which 1,645 with complete data could be linked to data in the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation system. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of predicting ICU mortality using the Glasgow Coma Scale was 0.715 (95% CI, 0.663-0.768) and using the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score was 0.742 (95% CI, 0.694-0.790), statistically different (p = 0.001). A similar but nonsignificant difference was found for predicting hospital mortality (p = 0.078). The respiratory and brainstem reflex components of the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score showed a much wider range of mortality than the verbal component of Glasgow Coma Scale. In multivariable models, the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score was more useful than the Glasgow Coma Scale for predicting mortality. The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score might be a better prognostic tool of ICU mortality than the Glasgow Coma Scale in critically ill patients, most likely a result of incorporating brainstem reflexes and respiration into the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score.

Similar predictions of etravirine sensitivity regardless of genotypic testing method used: comparison of available scoring systems.

PubMed

Vingerhoets, Johan; Nijs, Steven; Tambuyzer, Lotke; Hoogstoel, Annemie; Anderson, David; Picchio, Gaston

2012-01-01

The aims of this study were to compare various genotypic scoring systems commonly used to predict virological outcome to etravirine, and examine their concordance with etravirine phenotypic susceptibility. Six etravirine genotypic scoring systems were assessed: Tibotec 2010 (based on 20 mutations; TBT 20), Monogram, Stanford HIVdb, ANRS, Rega (based on 37, 30, 27 and 49 mutations, respectively) and virco(®)TYPE HIV-1 (predicted fold change based on genotype). Samples from treatment-experienced patients who participated in the DUET trials and with both genotypic and phenotypic data (n=403) were assessed using each scoring system. Results were retrospectively correlated with virological response in DUET. κ coefficients were calculated to estimate the degree of correlation between the different scoring systems. Correlation between the five scoring systems and the TBT 20 system was approximately 90%. Virological response by etravirine susceptibility was comparable regardless of which scoring system was utilized, with 70-74% of DUET patients determined as susceptible to etravirine by the different scoring systems achieving plasma viral load <50 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml. In samples classed as phenotypically susceptible to etravirine (fold change in 50% effective concentration ≤3), correlations with genotypic score were consistently high across scoring systems (≥70%). In general, the etravirine genotypic scoring systems produced similar results, and genotype-phenotype concordance was high. As such, phenotypic interpretations, and in their absence all genotypic scoring systems investigated, may be used to reliably predict the activity of etravirine.

Infrared Imagery of Shuttle (IRIS). Task 2, summary report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chocol, C. J.

1978-01-01

End-to-end tests of a 16 element indium antimonide sensor array and 10 channels of associated electronic signal processing were completed. Quantitative data were gathered on system responsivity, frequency response, noise, stray capacitance effects, and sensor paralleling. These tests verify that the temperature accuracies, predicted in the Task 1 study, can be obtained with a very carefully designed electro-optical flight system. Pre-flight and inflight calibration of a high quality are mandatory to obtain these accuracies. Also, optical crosstalk in the array-dewar assembly must be carefully eliminated by its design. Tests of the scaled up tracking system reticle also demonstrate that the predicted tracking system accuracies can be met in the flight system. In addition, improvements in the reticle pattern and electronics are possible, which will reduce the complexity of the flight system and increase tracking accuracy.

Children's biological responsivity to acute stress predicts concurrent cognitive performance.

PubMed

Roos, Leslie E; Beauchamp, Kathryn G; Giuliano, Ryan; Zalewski, Maureen; Kim, Hyoun K; Fisher, Philip A

2018-04-10

Although prior research has characterized stress system reactivity (i.e. hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, HPAA; autonomic nervous system, ANS) in children, it has yet to examine the extent to which biological reactivity predicts concurrent goal-directed behavior. Here, we employed a stressor paradigm that allowed concurrent assessment of both stress system reactivity and performance on a speeded-response task to investigate the links between biological reactivity and cognitive function under stress. We further investigated gender as a moderator given previous research suggesting that the ANS may be particularly predictive of behavior in males due to gender differences in socialization. In a sociodemographically diverse sample of young children (N = 58, M age = 5.38 yrs; 44% male), individual differences in sociodemographic covariates (age, household income), HPAA (i.e. cortisol), and ANS (i.e. respiratory sinus arrhythmia, RSA, indexing the parasympathetic branch; pre-ejection period, PEP, indexing the sympathetic branch) function were assessed as predictors of cognitive performance under stress. We hypothesized that higher income, older age, and greater cortisol reactivity would be associated with better performance overall, and flexible ANS responsivity (i.e. RSA withdrawal, PEP shortening) would be predictive of performance for males. Overall, females performed better than males. Two-group SEM analyses suggest that, for males, greater RSA withdrawal to the stressor was associated with better performance, while for females, older age, higher income, and greater cortisol reactivity were associated with better performance. Results highlight the relevance of stress system reactivity to cognitive performance under stress. Future research is needed to further elucidate for whom and in what situations biological reactivity predicts goal-directed behavior.

The Implementation and Evaluation of the Emergency Response Dose Assessment System (ERDAS) at Cape Canaveral Air Station/Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Randolph J.; Tremback, Craig J.; Lyons, Walter A.

1996-01-01

The Emergency Response Dose Assessment System (ERDAS) is a system which combines the mesoscale meteorological prediction model RAMS with the diffusion models REEDM and HYPACT. Operators use a graphical user interface to run the models for emergency response and toxic hazard planning at CCAS/KCS. The Applied Meteorology Unit has been evaluating the ERDAS meteorological and diffusion models and obtained the following results: (1) RAMS adequately predicts the occurrence of the daily sea breeze during non-cloudy conditions for several cases. (2) RAMS shows a tendency to predict the sea breeze to occur slightly earlier and to move it further inland than observed. The sea breeze predictions could most likely be improved by better parameterizing the soil moisture and/or sea surface temperatures. (3) The HYPACT/REEDM/RAMS models accurately predict launch plume locations when RAMS winds are accurate and when the correct plume layer is modeled. (4) HYPACT does not adequately handle plume buoyancy for heated plumes since all plumes are presently treated as passive tracers. Enhancements should be incorporated into the ERDAS as it moves toward being a fully operational system and as computer workstations continue to increase in power and decrease in cost. These enhancements include the following: activate RAMS moisture physics; use finer RAMS grid resolution; add RAMS input parameters (e.g. soil moisture, radar, and/or satellite data); automate data quality control; implement four-dimensional data assimilation; modify HYPACT plume rise and deposition physics; and add cumulative dosage calculations in HYPACT.

Spatial segregation of adaptation and predictive sensitization in retinal ganglion cells

PubMed Central

Kastner, David B.; Baccus, Stephen A.

2014-01-01

Sensory systems change their sensitivity based upon recent stimuli to adjust their response range to the range of inputs, and to predict future sensory input. Here we report the presence of retinal ganglion cells that have antagonistic plasticity, showing central adaptation and peripheral sensitization. Ganglion cell responses were captured by a spatiotemporal model with independently adapting excitatory and inhibitory subunits, and sensitization requires GABAergic inhibition. Using a simple theory of signal detection we show that the sensitizing surround conforms to an optimal inference model that continually updates the prior signal probability. This indicates that small receptive field regions have dual functionality—to adapt to the local range of signals, but sensitize based upon the probability of the presence of that signal. Within this framework, we show that sensitization predicts the location of a nearby object, revealing prediction as a new functional role for adapting inhibition in the nervous system. PMID:23932000

[Prediction of the molecular response to pertubations from single cell measurements].

PubMed

Remacle, Françoise; Levine, Raphael D

2014-12-01

The response of protein signalization networks to perturbations is analysed from single cell measurements. This experimental approach allows characterizing the fluctuations in protein expression levels from cell to cell. The analysis is based on an information theoretic approach grounded in thermodynamics leading to a quantitative version of Le Chatelier principle which allows to predict the molecular response. Two systems are investigated: human macrophages subjected to lipopolysaccharide challenge, analogous to the immune response against Gram-negative bacteria and the response of the proteins involved in the mTOR signalizing network of GBM cancer cells to changes in partial oxygen pressure. © 2014 médecine/sciences – Inserm.

Clinical utility of C-reactive protein to predict treatment response during cystic fibrosis pulmonary exacerbations.

PubMed

Sharma, Ashutosh; Kirkpatrick, Gordon; Chen, Virginia; Skolnik, Kate; Hollander, Zsuzsanna; Wilcox, Pearce; Quon, Bradley S

2017-01-01

C-reactive protein (CRP) is a systemic marker of inflammation that correlates with disease status in cystic fibrosis (CF). The clinical utility of CRP measurement to guide pulmonary exacerbation (PEx) treatment decisions remains uncertain. To determine whether monitoring CRP during PEx treatment can be used to predict treatment response. We hypothesized that early changes in CRP can be used to predict treatment response. We reviewed all PEx events requiring hospitalization for intravenous (IV) antibiotics over 2 years at our institution. 83 PEx events met our eligibility criteria. CRP levels from admission to day 5 were evaluated to predict treatment non-response, using a modified version of a prior published composite definition. CRP was also evaluated to predict time until next exacerbation (TUNE). 53% of 83 PEx events were classified as treatment non-response. Paradoxically, 24% of PEx events were characterized by a ≥ 50% increase in CRP levels within the first five days of treatment. Absolute change in CRP from admission to day 5 was not associated with treatment non-response (p = 0.58). Adjusted for FEV1% predicted, admission log10 CRP was associated with treatment non-response (OR: 2.39; 95% CI: 1.14 to 5.91; p = 0.03) and shorter TUNE (HR: 1.60; 95% CI: 1.13 to 2.27; p = 0.008). The area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of admission CRP to predict treatment non-response was 0.72 (95% CI 0.61-0.83; p<0.001). 23% of PEx events were characterized by an admission CRP of > 75 mg/L with a specificity of 90% for treatment non-response. Admission CRP predicts treatment non-response and time until next exacerbation. A very elevated admission CRP (>75mg/L) is highly specific for treatment non-response and might be used to target high-risk patients for future interventional studies aimed at improving exacerbation outcomes.

Prediction of Flutter Boundary Using Flutter Margin for The Discrete-Time System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwi Saputra, Angga; Wibawa Purabaya, R.

2018-04-01

Flutter testing in a wind tunnel is generally conducted at subcritical speeds to avoid damages. Hence, The flutter speed has to be predicted from the behavior some of its stability criteria estimated against the dynamic pressure or flight speed. Therefore, it is quite important for a reliable flutter prediction method to estimates flutter boundary. This paper summarizes the flutter testing of a wing cantilever model in a wind tunnel. The model has two degree of freedom; they are bending and torsion modes. The flutter test was conducted in a subsonic wind tunnel. The dynamic data responses was measured by two accelerometers that were mounted on leading edge and center of wing tip. The measurement was repeated while the wind speed increased. The dynamic responses were used to determine the parameter flutter margin for the discrete-time system. The flutter boundary of the model was estimated using extrapolation of the parameter flutter margin against the dynamic pressure. The parameter flutter margin for the discrete-time system has a better performance for flutter prediction than the modal parameters. A model with two degree freedom and experiencing classical flutter, the parameter flutter margin for the discrete-time system gives a satisfying result in prediction of flutter boundary on subsonic wind tunnel test.

Individual differences in bodily freezing predict emotional biases in decision making

PubMed Central

Ly, Verena; Huys, Quentin J. M.; Stins, John F.; Roelofs, Karin; Cools, Roshan

2014-01-01

Instrumental decision making has long been argued to be vulnerable to emotional responses. Literature on multiple decision making systems suggests that this emotional biasing might reflect effects of a system that regulates innately specified, evolutionarily preprogrammed responses. To test this hypothesis directly, we investigated whether effects of emotional faces on instrumental action can be predicted by effects of emotional faces on bodily freezing, an innately specified response to aversive relative to appetitive cues. We tested 43 women using a novel emotional decision making task combined with posturography, which involves a force platform to detect small oscillations of the body to accurately quantify postural control in upright stance. On the platform, participants learned whole body approach-avoidance actions based on monetary feedback, while being primed by emotional faces (angry/happy). Our data evidence an emotional biasing of instrumental action. Thus, angry relative to happy faces slowed instrumental approach relative to avoidance responses. Critically, individual differences in this emotional biasing effect were predicted by individual differences in bodily freezing. This result suggests that emotional biasing of instrumental action involves interaction with a system that controls innately specified responses. Furthermore, our findings help bridge (animal and human) decision making and emotion research to advance our mechanistic understanding of decision making anomalies in daily encounters as well as in a wide range of psychopathology. PMID:25071491

Navy Enhanced Sierra Mechanics (NESM): Toolbox for predicting Navy shock and damage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moyer, Thomas; Stergiou, Jonathan; Reese, Garth

Here, the US Navy is developing a new suite of computational mechanics tools (Navy Enhanced Sierra Mechanics) for the prediction of ship response, damage, and shock environments transmitted to vital systems during threat weapon encounters. NESM includes fully coupled Euler-Lagrange solvers tailored to ship shock/damage predictions. NESM is optimized to support high-performance computing architectures, providing the physics-based ship response/threat weapon damage predictions needed to support the design and assessment of highly survivable ships. NESM is being employed to support current Navy ship design and acquisition programs while being further developed for future Navy fleet needs.

Navy Enhanced Sierra Mechanics (NESM): Toolbox for predicting Navy shock and damage

DOE PAGES

Moyer, Thomas; Stergiou, Jonathan; Reese, Garth; ...

2016-05-25

Here, the US Navy is developing a new suite of computational mechanics tools (Navy Enhanced Sierra Mechanics) for the prediction of ship response, damage, and shock environments transmitted to vital systems during threat weapon encounters. NESM includes fully coupled Euler-Lagrange solvers tailored to ship shock/damage predictions. NESM is optimized to support high-performance computing architectures, providing the physics-based ship response/threat weapon damage predictions needed to support the design and assessment of highly survivable ships. NESM is being employed to support current Navy ship design and acquisition programs while being further developed for future Navy fleet needs.

Evaluation of acoustic testing techniques for spacecraft systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cockburn, J. A.

1971-01-01

External acoustic environments, structural responses, noise reductions, and the internal acoustic environments have been predicted for a typical shroud/spacecraft system during lift-off and various critical stages of flight. Spacecraft responses caused by energy transmission from the shroud via mechanical and acoustic paths have been compared and the importance of the mechanical path has been evaluated. Theoretical predictions have been compared extensively with available laboratory and in-flight measurements. Equivalent laboratory acoustic fields for simulation of shroud response during the various phases of flight have been derived and compared in detail. Techniques for varying the time-space correlations of laboratory acoustic fields have been examined, together with methods for varying the time and spatial distribution of acoustic amplitudes. Possible acoustic testing configurations for shroud/spacecraft systems have been suggested and trade-off considerations have been reviewed. The problem of simulating the acoustic environments versus simulating the structural responses has been considered and techniques for testing without the shroud installed have been discussed.

Novel biomarker-based model for the prediction of sorafenib response and overall survival in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Kim, Hwi Young; Lee, Dong Hyeon; Lee, Jeong-Hoon; Cho, Young Youn; Cho, Eun Ju; Yu, Su Jong; Kim, Yoon Jun; Yoon, Jung-Hwan

2018-03-20

Prediction of the outcome of sorafenib therapy using biomarkers is an unmet clinical need in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim was to develop and validate a biomarker-based model for predicting sorafenib response and overall survival (OS). This prospective cohort study included 124 consecutive HCC patients (44 with disease control, 80 with progression) with Child-Pugh class A liver function, who received sorafenib. Potential serum biomarkers (namely, hepatocyte growth factor [HGF], fibroblast growth factor [FGF], vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1, CD117, and angiopoietin-2) were tested. After identifying independent predictors of tumor response, a risk scoring system for predicting OS was developed and 3-fold internal validation was conducted. A risk scoring system was developed with six covariates: etiology, platelet count, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, protein induced by vitamin K absence-II, HGF, and FGF. When patients were stratified into low-risk (score ≤ 5), intermediate-risk (score 6), and high-risk (score ≥ 7) groups, the model provided good discriminant functions on tumor response (concordance [c]-index, 0.884) and 12-month survival (area under the curve [AUC], 0.825). The median OS was 19.0, 11.2, and 6.1 months in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk group, respectively (P < 0.001). In internal validation, the model maintained good discriminant functions on tumor response (c-index, 0.825) and 12-month survival (AUC, 0.803), and good calibration functions (all P > 0.05 between expected and observed values). This new model including serum FGF and HGF showed good performance in predicting the response to sorafenib and survival in patients with advanced HCC.

Chemical combination effects predict connectivity in biological systems

PubMed Central

Lehár, Joseph; Zimmermann, Grant R; Krueger, Andrew S; Molnar, Raymond A; Ledell, Jebediah T; Heilbut, Adrian M; Short, Glenn F; Giusti, Leanne C; Nolan, Garry P; Magid, Omar A; Lee, Margaret S; Borisy, Alexis A; Stockwell, Brent R; Keith, Curtis T

2007-01-01

Efforts to construct therapeutically useful models of biological systems require large and diverse sets of data on functional connections between their components. Here we show that cellular responses to combinations of chemicals reveal how their biological targets are connected. Simulations of pathways with pairs of inhibitors at varying doses predict distinct response surface shapes that are reproduced in a yeast experiment, with further support from a larger screen using human tumour cells. The response morphology yields detailed connectivity constraints between nearby targets, and synergy profiles across many combinations show relatedness between targets in the whole network. Constraints from chemical combinations complement genetic studies, because they probe different cellular components and can be applied to disease models that are not amenable to mutagenesis. Chemical probes also offer increased flexibility, as they can be continuously dosed, temporally controlled, and readily combined. After extending this initial study to cover a wider range of combination effects and pathway topologies, chemical combinations may be used to refine network models or to identify novel targets. This response surface methodology may even apply to non-biological systems where responses to targeted perturbations can be measured. PMID:17332758

Modelling and Simulation of the Dynamics of the Antigen-Specific T Cell Response Using Variable Structure Control Theory.

PubMed

Anelone, Anet J N; Spurgeon, Sarah K

2016-01-01

Experimental and mathematical studies in immunology have revealed that the dynamics of the programmed T cell response to vigorous infection can be conveniently modelled using a sigmoidal or a discontinuous immune response function. This paper hypothesizes strong synergies between this existing work and the dynamical behaviour of engineering systems with a variable structure control (VSC) law. These findings motivate the interpretation of the immune system as a variable structure control system. It is shown that dynamical properties as well as conditions to analytically assess the transition from health to disease can be developed for the specific T cell response from the theory of variable structure control. In particular, it is shown that the robustness properties of the specific T cell response as observed in experiments can be explained analytically using a VSC perspective. Further, the predictive capacity of the VSC framework to determine the T cell help required to overcome chronic Lymphocytic Choriomeningitis Virus (LCMV) infection is demonstrated. The findings demonstrate that studying the immune system using variable structure control theory provides a new framework for evaluating immunological dynamics and experimental observations. A modelling and simulation tool results with predictive capacity to determine how to modify the immune response to achieve healthy outcomes which may have application in drug development and vaccine design.

Prefrontal mediation of the reading network predicts intervention response in dyslexia.

PubMed

Aboud, Katherine S; Barquero, Laura A; Cutting, Laurie E

2018-04-01

A primary challenge facing the development of interventions for dyslexia is identifying effective predictors of intervention response. While behavioral literature has identified core cognitive characteristics of response, the distinction of reading versus executive cognitive contributions to response profiles remains unclear, due in part to the difficulty of segregating these constructs using behavioral outputs. In the current study we used functional neuroimaging to piece apart the mechanisms of how/whether executive and reading network relationships are predictive of intervention response. We found that readers who are responsive to intervention have more typical pre-intervention functional interactions between executive and reading systems compared to nonresponsive readers. These findings suggest that intervention response in dyslexia is influenced not only by domain-specific reading regions, but also by contributions from intervening domain-general networks. Our results make a significant gain in identifying predictive bio-markers of outcomes in dyslexia, and have important implications for the development of personalized clinical interventions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ant groups optimally amplify the effect of transiently informed individuals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelblum, Aviram; Pinkoviezky, Itai; Fonio, Ehud; Ghosh, Abhijit; Gov, Nir; Feinerman, Ofer

2015-07-01

To cooperatively transport a large load, it is important that carriers conform in their efforts and align their forces. A downside of behavioural conformism is that it may decrease the group's responsiveness to external information. Combining experiment and theory, we show how ants optimize collective transport. On the single-ant scale, optimization stems from decision rules that balance individuality and compliance. Macroscopically, these rules poise the system at the transition between random walk and ballistic motion where the collective response to the steering of a single informed ant is maximized. We relate this peak in response to the divergence of susceptibility at a phase transition. Our theoretical models predict that the ant-load system can be transitioned through the critical point of this mesoscopic system by varying its size; we present experiments supporting these predictions. Our findings show that efficient group-level processes can arise from transient amplification of individual-based knowledge.

Ant groups optimally amplify the effect of transiently informed individuals

PubMed Central

Gelblum, Aviram; Pinkoviezky, Itai; Fonio, Ehud; Ghosh, Abhijit; Gov, Nir; Feinerman, Ofer

2015-01-01

To cooperatively transport a large load, it is important that carriers conform in their efforts and align their forces. A downside of behavioural conformism is that it may decrease the group's responsiveness to external information. Combining experiment and theory, we show how ants optimize collective transport. On the single-ant scale, optimization stems from decision rules that balance individuality and compliance. Macroscopically, these rules poise the system at the transition between random walk and ballistic motion where the collective response to the steering of a single informed ant is maximized. We relate this peak in response to the divergence of susceptibility at a phase transition. Our theoretical models predict that the ant-load system can be transitioned through the critical point of this mesoscopic system by varying its size; we present experiments supporting these predictions. Our findings show that efficient group-level processes can arise from transient amplification of individual-based knowledge. PMID:26218613

The BUMP model of response planning: intermittent predictive control accounts for 10 Hz physiological tremor.

PubMed

Bye, Robin T; Neilson, Peter D

2010-10-01

Physiological tremor during movement is characterized by ∼10 Hz oscillation observed both in the electromyogram activity and in the velocity profile. We propose that this particular rhythm occurs as the direct consequence of a movement response planning system that acts as an intermittent predictive controller operating at discrete intervals of ∼100 ms. The BUMP model of response planning describes such a system. It forms the kernel of Adaptive Model Theory which defines, in computational terms, a basic unit of motor production or BUMP. Each BUMP consists of three processes: (1) analyzing sensory information, (2) planning a desired optimal response, and (3) execution of that response. These processes operate in parallel across successive sequential BUMPs. The response planning process requires a discrete-time interval in which to generate a minimum acceleration trajectory to connect the actual response with the predicted future state of the target and compensate for executional error. We have shown previously that a response planning time of 100 ms accounts for the intermittency observed experimentally in visual tracking studies and for the psychological refractory period observed in double stimulation reaction time studies. We have also shown that simulations of aimed movement, using this same planning interval, reproduce experimentally observed speed-accuracy tradeoffs and movement velocity profiles. Here we show, by means of a simulation study of constant velocity tracking movements, that employing a 100 ms planning interval closely reproduces the measurement discontinuities and power spectra of electromyograms, joint-angles, and angular velocities of physiological tremor reported experimentally. We conclude that intermittent predictive control through sequential operation of BUMPs is a fundamental mechanism of 10 Hz physiological tremor in movement. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Depression and anxiety predict sex-specific cortisol responses to interpersonal stress.

PubMed

Powers, Sally I; Laurent, Heidemarie K; Gunlicks-Stoessel, Meredith; Balaban, Susan; Bent, Eileen

2016-07-01

Clinical theories posit interpersonal stress as an important factor in the emergence and exacerbation of depression and anxiety, while neuroendocrine research confirms the association of these syndromes with dysregulation in a major stress response system, the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. However, the proposal that depression and anxiety symptoms and diagnoses are associated with problematic HPA responses to close relationship stress has not been directly tested. We examined 196 heterosexual dating couples' depression and anxiety symptoms and diagnoses, assessed with questionnaires and diagnostic interviews, in relation to cortisol responses to discussion of an unresolved relationship conflict. Participants provided seven salivary samples in anticipation of and directly following the discussion, and throughout an hour-long recovery period, which were assayed for cortisol. Multilevel models of the HPA response predicted by symptoms or diagnoses showed that women's depressive symptoms predicted attenuated cortisol levels, with a flatter response curve. In contrast, men's depression symptoms and women's anxiety symptoms and diagnoses predicted higher cortisol levels. These findings highlight the importance of examining sex differences in responses to interpersonal stressors for understanding HPA dysregulation in internalizing psychopathology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Plasmons and Polaritons in Low Dimensional Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Zhiyuan

Nearly everything relies on the electromagnetic (EM) force to be in its current form. Therefore, light-matter interaction is both a fundamental and a practical subject in physics. Focusing on the electromagnetic field, the matter degrees of freedom can be encoded into its response to the EM field in the form of charge density and urrent. Reshaped by the EM response, the photons in condensed matter systems appear as various collective modes. In this doctoral dissertation, I present our investigation of the linear and nonlinear EM response theory especially in the hydrodynamic regime of electron systems. Electrons in pristine solids behave as a hydrodynamic fluid in a certain range of temperatures and frequencies. We show that the response of such a fluid to electromagnetic field is different from what is predicted by the usual kinetic theory. Certain aspects of this response are universal, for example, a direct relation between the linear and second-order nonlinear optical conductivities. Discovery of this relation enriches our understanding of the light-matter interaction in diverse electron systems and new materials such as graphene. Subsequently, I study the properties of the charged collective modes, the plasmons and demons in 2D Dirac fluids, e.g., the electron-hole system in graphene. Under non-equilibrium situation, the amplitudes of these collective modes could possibly grow due to an effect of adiabatic amplification. I also present our study of the hyperbolic polaritons, the EM modes in hyperbolic materials. When confined in cavities, they develop isolated eigen modes which could be efficiently predicted by applying semi-classical quantization rules to fictitious particles. We demonstrate this Hamiltonian Optics analytically for cavities of spheroidal shapes, and predict novel geometric patterns of the electric field distribution due to classical periodic orbits.

An investigation into the blood-flow characteristics of telangiectatic skin lesions in systemic sclerosis using dual-wavelength laser Doppler imaging.

PubMed

Murray, A K; Moore, T L; Griffiths, C E M; Herrick, A L

2009-07-01

Superficial telangiectases associated with systemic sclerosis may be more responsive to treatment than those deeper in the dermis. We investigated whether dual-wavelength laser Doppler imaging (LDI) is sufficiently sensitive to ascertain the distribution of blood flow within telangiectases and whether blood flow relates to telangiectatic diameter. The perfusion and diameter of 20 telangiectases were measured in superficial and deeper layers of the skin using dual-wavelength LDI. Of 20 telangiectases, 18 had higher blood flow in the red (representing deeper blood flow), rather than the green (representing superficial blood flow) wavelength images. Clinically apparent diameters correlated with those of the superficial (r = 0.61, P = 0.01), but not with the deeper blood flow images. Hence, the apparent size of telangiectases at the skin surface does not predict blood flow through the microvessel(s) at deeper levels, and thus clinically apparent size is unlikely to predict treatment response. Dual-wavelength LDI may help predict treatment response.

Prediction of the cause, effects, and prevention of drug-nutrient interactions using attributes and attribute values.

PubMed

Roe, D A

1985-01-01

Drug-nutrient interactions and their adverse outcomes have previously been identified by observation, investigation, and literature reports. Knowing the attributes of the drugs, availability of knowledge base management systems for microcomputer use can facilitate prediction of the mechanism and the effects of drug-nutrient interactions. Examples used to illustrate this approach are prediction of lactose intolerance in drug-induced malabsorption, and prediction of the mechanism responsible for drug-induced flush reactions. In the future we see that there may be many opportunities to use this system further in the investigation of complex drug-nutrient interactions.

Molecular mechanisms of system responses to novel stimuli are predictable from public data

PubMed Central

Danziger, Samuel A.; Ratushny, Alexander V.; Smith, Jennifer J.; Saleem, Ramsey A.; Wan, Yakun; Arens, Christina E.; Armstrong, Abraham M.; Sitko, Katherine; Chen, Wei-Ming; Chiang, Jung-Hsien; Reiss, David J.; Baliga, Nitin S.; Aitchison, John D.

2014-01-01

Systems scale models provide the foundation for an effective iterative cycle between hypothesis generation, experiment and model refinement. Such models also enable predictions facilitating the understanding of biological complexity and the control of biological systems. Here, we demonstrate the reconstruction of a globally predictive gene regulatory model from public data: a model that can drive rational experiment design and reveal new regulatory mechanisms underlying responses to novel environments. Specifically, using ∼1500 publically available genome-wide transcriptome data sets from Saccharomyces cerevisiae, we have reconstructed an environment and gene regulatory influence network that accurately predicts regulatory mechanisms and gene expression changes on exposure of cells to completely novel environments. Focusing on transcriptional networks that induce peroxisomes biogenesis, the model-guided experiments allow us to expand a core regulatory network to include novel transcriptional influences and linkage across signaling and transcription. Thus, the approach and model provides a multi-scalar picture of gene dynamics and are powerful resources for exploiting extant data to rationally guide experimentation. The techniques outlined here are generally applicable to any biological system, which is especially important when experimental systems are challenging and samples are difficult and expensive to obtain—a common problem in laboratory animal and human studies. PMID:24185701

A Bayes network approach to uncertainty quantification in hierarchically developed computational models

DOE PAGES

Urbina, Angel; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Paez, Thomas L.

2012-03-01

Here, performance assessment of complex systems is ideally accomplished through system-level testing, but because they are expensive, such tests are seldom performed. On the other hand, for economic reasons, data from tests on individual components that are parts of complex systems are more readily available. The lack of system-level data leads to a need to build computational models of systems and use them for performance prediction in lieu of experiments. Because their complexity, models are sometimes built in a hierarchical manner, starting with simple components, progressing to collections of components, and finally, to the full system. Quantification of uncertainty inmore » the predicted response of a system model is required in order to establish confidence in the representation of actual system behavior. This paper proposes a framework for the complex, but very practical problem of quantification of uncertainty in system-level model predictions. It is based on Bayes networks and uses the available data at multiple levels of complexity (i.e., components, subsystem, etc.). Because epistemic sources of uncertainty were shown to be secondary, in this application, aleatoric only uncertainty is included in the present uncertainty quantification. An example showing application of the techniques to uncertainty quantification of measures of response of a real, complex aerospace system is included.« less

Multiple network-constrained regressions expand insights into influenza vaccination responses.

PubMed

Avey, Stefan; Mohanty, Subhasis; Wilson, Jean; Zapata, Heidi; Joshi, Samit R; Siconolfi, Barbara; Tsang, Sui; Shaw, Albert C; Kleinstein, Steven H

2017-07-15

Systems immunology leverages recent technological advancements that enable broad profiling of the immune system to better understand the response to infection and vaccination, as well as the dysregulation that occurs in disease. An increasingly common approach to gain insights from these large-scale profiling experiments involves the application of statistical learning methods to predict disease states or the immune response to perturbations. However, the goal of many systems studies is not to maximize accuracy, but rather to gain biological insights. The predictors identified using current approaches can be biologically uninterpretable or present only one of many equally predictive models, leading to a narrow understanding of the underlying biology. Here we show that incorporating prior biological knowledge within a logistic modeling framework by using network-level constraints on transcriptional profiling data significantly improves interpretability. Moreover, incorporating different types of biological knowledge produces models that highlight distinct aspects of the underlying biology, while maintaining predictive accuracy. We propose a new framework, Logistic Multiple Network-constrained Regression (LogMiNeR), and apply it to understand the mechanisms underlying differential responses to influenza vaccination. Although standard logistic regression approaches were predictive, they were minimally interpretable. Incorporating prior knowledge using LogMiNeR led to models that were equally predictive yet highly interpretable. In this context, B cell-specific genes and mTOR signaling were associated with an effective vaccination response in young adults. Overall, our results demonstrate a new paradigm for analyzing high-dimensional immune profiling data in which multiple networks encoding prior knowledge are incorporated to improve model interpretability. The R source code described in this article is publicly available at https://bitbucket.org/kleinstein/logminer . steven.kleinstein@yale.edu or stefan.avey@yale.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Superposition rheology.

PubMed

Dhont, J K; Wagner, N J

2001-02-01

The interpretation of superposition rheology data is still a matter of debate due to lack of understanding of viscoelastic superposition response on a microscopic level. So far, only phenomenological approaches have been described, which do not capture the shear induced microstructural deformation, which is responsible for the viscoelastic behavior to the superimposed flow. Experimentally there are indications that there is a fundamental difference between the viscoelastic response to an orthogonally and a parallel superimposed shear flow. We present theoretical predictions, based on microscopic considerations, for both orthogonal and parallel viscoelastic response functions for a colloidal system of attractive particles near their gas-liquid critical point. These predictions extend to values of the stationary shear rate where the system is nonlinearly perturbed, and are based on considerations on the colloidal particle level. The difference in response to orthogonal and parallel superimposed shear flow can be understood entirely in terms of microstructural distortion, where the anisotropy of the microstructure under shear flow conditions is essential. In accordance with experimental observations we find pronounced negative values for response functions in case of parallel superposition for an intermediate range of frequencies, provided that microstructure is nonlinearly perturbed by the stationary shear component. For the critical colloidal systems considered here, the Kramers-Kronig relations for the superimposed response functions are found to be valid. It is argued, however, that the Kramers-Kronig relations may be violated for systems where the stationary shear flow induces a considerable amount of new microstructure.

Step responses of a torsional system with multiple clearances: Study of vibro-impact phenomenon using experimental and computational methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oruganti, Pradeep Sharma; Krak, Michael D.; Singh, Rajendra

2018-01-01

Recently Krak and Singh (2017) proposed a scientific experiment that examined vibro-impacts in a torsional system under a step down excitation and provided preliminary measurements and limited non-linear model studies. A major goal of this article is to extend the prior work with a focus on the examination of vibro-impact phenomena observed under step responses in a torsional system with one, two or three controlled clearances. First, new measurements are made at several locations with a higher sampling frequency. Measured angular accelerations are examined in both time and time-frequency domains. Minimal order non-linear models of the experiment are successfully constructed, using piecewise linear stiffness and Coulomb friction elements; eight cases of the generic system are examined though only three are experimentally studied. Measured and predicted responses for single and dual clearance configurations exhibit double sided impacts and time varying periods suggest softening trends under the step down torque. Non-linear models are experimentally validated by comparing results with new measurements and with those previously reported. Several metrics are utilized to quantify and compare the measured and predicted responses (including peak to peak accelerations). Eigensolutions and step responses of the corresponding linearized models are utilized to better understand the nature of the non-linear dynamic system. Finally, the effect of step amplitude on the non-linear responses is examined for several configurations, and hardening trends are observed in the torsional system with three clearances.

The Predictive Validity of a Gender-Responsive Needs Assessment: An Exploratory Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salisbury, Emily J.; Van Voorhis, Patricia; Spiropoulos, Georgia V.

2009-01-01

Risk assessment and classification systems for women have been largely derived from male-based systems. As a result, many of the needs unique to women are not formally assessed or treated. Emerging research advocating a gender-responsive approach to the supervision and treatment of women offenders suggests that needs such as abuse, mental health,…

Progress of Aircraft System Noise Assessment with Uncertainty Quantification for the Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, Russell H.; Burley, Casey L.; Guo, Yueping

2016-01-01

Aircraft system noise predictions have been performed for NASA modeled hybrid wing body aircraft advanced concepts with 2025 entry-into-service technology assumptions. The system noise predictions developed over a period from 2009 to 2016 as a result of improved modeling of the aircraft concepts, design changes, technology development, flight path modeling, and the use of extensive integrated system level experimental data. In addition, the system noise prediction models and process have been improved in many ways. An additional process is developed here for quantifying the uncertainty with a 95% confidence level. This uncertainty applies only to the aircraft system noise prediction process. For three points in time during this period, the vehicle designs, technologies, and noise prediction process are documented. For each of the three predictions, and with the information available at each of those points in time, the uncertainty is quantified using the direct Monte Carlo method with 10,000 simulations. For the prediction of cumulative noise of an advanced aircraft at the conceptual level of design, the total uncertainty band has been reduced from 12.2 to 9.6 EPNL dB. A value of 3.6 EPNL dB is proposed as the lower limit of uncertainty possible for the cumulative system noise prediction of an advanced aircraft concept.

Latino children's body mass index at 2-3.5 years predicts sympathetic nervous system activity at 5 years.

PubMed

Alkon, Abbey; Harley, Kim G; Neilands, Torsten B; Tambellini, Katelyn; Lustig, Robert H; Boyce, W Thomas; Eskenazi, Brenda

2014-06-01

To understand whether the relationship between young children's autonomic nervous system (ANS) responses predicted their BMI, or vice versa, the association between standardized BMI (zBMI) at 2, 3.5, and 5 years of age and ANS reactivity at 3.5-5 years of age, and whether zBMI predicts later ANS reactivity or whether early ANS reactivity predicts later zBMI, was studied. Low-income, primarily Latino children (n=112) were part of a larger cohort study of mothers recruited during early pregnancy. Study measures included maternal prenatal weight, children's health behaviors (i.e., time watching television, fast food consumption, and time playing outdoors), children's height and weight at 2, 3.5, and 5 years, and children's ANS reactivity at 3.5 and 5 years. ANS measures of sympathetic nervous system (i.e., pre-ejection period) and parasympathetic nervous system (i.e., respiratory sinus arrhythmia) activity were monitored during rest and four challenges. Reactivity was calculated as the difference between mean challenge response and rest. Structural equation models analyzed the relationship between children's zBMI at 2, 3.5, and 5 years and ANS reactivity at 3.5 and 5 years, adjusting for mother's BMI, children's behaviors, and changes in height. There was no association between zBMI and ANS cross-sectionally. Children with high zBMI at 2 or 3.5 years or large zBMI increases from 2 to 3.5 years of age had decreased sympathetic activity at 5 years. Neither sympathetic nor parasympathetic reactivity at 3.5 years predicted later zBMI. Increased zBMI early in childhood may dampen young children's SNS responses later in life.

A Task-Optimized Neural Network Replicates Human Auditory Behavior, Predicts Brain Responses, and Reveals a Cortical Processing Hierarchy.

PubMed

Kell, Alexander J E; Yamins, Daniel L K; Shook, Erica N; Norman-Haignere, Sam V; McDermott, Josh H

2018-05-02

A core goal of auditory neuroscience is to build quantitative models that predict cortical responses to natural sounds. Reasoning that a complete model of auditory cortex must solve ecologically relevant tasks, we optimized hierarchical neural networks for speech and music recognition. The best-performing network contained separate music and speech pathways following early shared processing, potentially replicating human cortical organization. The network performed both tasks as well as humans and exhibited human-like errors despite not being optimized to do so, suggesting common constraints on network and human performance. The network predicted fMRI voxel responses substantially better than traditional spectrotemporal filter models throughout auditory cortex. It also provided a quantitative signature of cortical representational hierarchy-primary and non-primary responses were best predicted by intermediate and late network layers, respectively. The results suggest that task optimization provides a powerful set of tools for modeling sensory systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Blade loss transient dynamic analysis of turbomachinery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stallone, M. J.; Gallardo, V.; Storace, A. F.; Bach, L. J.; Black, G.; Gaffney, E. F.

1982-01-01

This paper reports on work completed to develop an analytical method for predicting the transient non-linear response of a complete aircraft engine system due to the loss of a fan blade, and to validate the analysis by comparing the results against actual blade loss test data. The solution, which is based on the component element method, accounts for rotor-to-casing rubs, high damping and rapid deceleration rates associated with the blade loss event. A comparison of test results and predicted response show good agreement except for an initial overshoot spike not observed in test. The method is effective for analysis of large systems.

An approximation technique for predicting the transient response of a second order nonlinear equation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laurenson, R. M.; Baumgarten, J. R.

1975-01-01

An approximation technique has been developed for determining the transient response of a nonlinear dynamic system. The nonlinearities in the system which has been considered appear in the system's dissipation function. This function was expressed as a second order polynomial in the system's velocity. The developed approximation is an extension of the classic Kryloff-Bogoliuboff technique. Two examples of the developed approximation are presented for comparative purposes with other approximation methods.

THE DYNAMIC RESPONSE OF THERMOMETER-WELL ASSEMBLIES.

DTIC Science & Technology

parameter models of the thermometric system were constructed and gave acceptable agreement with the experimental results. These models can be used to predict the dynamic behavior of any similar thermometer system. (Author)

Development of a multi-body nonlinear model for a seat-occupant system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizi, Yousof

A car seat is an important component of today's cars, which directly affects ride comfort experienced by occupants. Currently, the process of ride comfort evaluation is subjective. Alternatively, the ride comfort can be evaluated by a series of objective metrics in the dynamic response of the occupant. From previous studies it is well known that the dynamic behavior of a seat-occupant system is greatly affected by soft nonlinear viscoelastic materials used in the seat cushion. Therefore, in this research, especial attention was given to efficiently modeling the behavior of seat cushion. In the first part of this research, a phenomenological nonlinear viscoelastic foam model was proposed and its ability to capture uniaxial behavior of foam was investigated. The model is based on the assumption that the total stress can be decomposed into the sum of a nonlinear elastic component, modeled by a higher order polynomial of strain, and a nonlinear hereditary type viscoelastic component. System identification procedures were developed to estimate the model parameters using uniaxial cyclic compression data from experiments conducted at different rates on two types of low density polyurethane foams and three types of high density CONFOR foams. The performance of the proposed model was compared to that of other traditional continuum models. For each foam type, it was observed that lower order models are sufficient to describe the uniaxial behavior of the foam compressed at different rates. Although, the estimated model parameters were functions of the input strain rate. Alternatively, higher order comprehensive models, with strain independent parameters, were estimated as well. The estimated comprehensive model predicts foam responses under different compression rates. Also, a methodology was proposed to predict the stress-response of a layered foam system using the estimated models of each foam in the layers. Next, the estimated foam model was incorporated into a single-degree of freedom foam-mass model which is also the simplest model of seat-occupant systems. The steady-state response of the system when it is subjected to harmonic base excitation was studied using the incremental harmonic balance method. The incremental harmonic balance method was used to reduce the time required to generate the steady-state response of the system. The incremental harmonic balance method was used to reduce the time required to generate the steady-state response of the system. Experiments are conducted on a single-degree of freedom foam-mass system subjected to harmonic base excitation. Initially, the simulated response predictions were found to deviate from the experimental results. The foam-mass model was then modified to incorporate rate dependency of foam parameters resulting in response predictions that were in good agreement with experimental results. In the second part of this research, the dynamic response of a seat-occupant system was examined through a more realistic planar multi-body seat-occupant model. A constraint Lagrangian formulation was used to derive the governing equations for the seat-occupant model. First, the governing equations were solved numerically to obtain the occupant transient response, the occupant's H-Point location and the interfacial pressure distribution. Variations in the H-Point location and the seat-occupant pressure distribution with changes in the seat-occupant parameters, including the seat geometry and the occupant's characteristics, were studied. The estimated pressure was also investigated experimentally and was found to match with the results obtained using the seat-occupant model. Next, the incremental harmonic balance method was modified and used to obtain the occupant's steady-state response when the seat-occupant system was subjected to harmonic base excitation at different frequencies. The system frequency response and mode shapes at different frequencies were also obtained and compared to the previously measured experimental frequency responses. Finally, variations in the estimated frequency response with changes in the seat-occupant parameters, including the seat geometry and the occupant characteristics, were studied.

Predicting the impact of combined therapies on myeloma cell growth using a hybrid multi-scale agent-based model.

PubMed

Ji, Zhiwei; Su, Jing; Wu, Dan; Peng, Huiming; Zhao, Weiling; Nlong Zhao, Brian; Zhou, Xiaobo

2017-01-31

Multiple myeloma is a malignant still incurable plasma cell disorder. This is due to refractory disease relapse, immune impairment, and development of multi-drug resistance. The growth of malignant plasma cells is dependent on the bone marrow (BM) microenvironment and evasion of the host's anti-tumor immune response. Hence, we hypothesized that targeting tumor-stromal cell interaction and endogenous immune system in BM will potentially improve the response of multiple myeloma (MM). Therefore, we proposed a computational simulation of the myeloma development in the complicated microenvironment which includes immune cell components and bone marrow stromal cells and predicted the effects of combined treatment with multi-drugs on myeloma cell growth. We constructed a hybrid multi-scale agent-based model (HABM) that combines an ODE system and Agent-based model (ABM). The ODEs was used for modeling the dynamic changes of intracellular signal transductions and ABM for modeling the cell-cell interactions between stromal cells, tumor, and immune components in the BM. This model simulated myeloma growth in the bone marrow microenvironment and revealed the important role of immune system in this process. The predicted outcomes were consistent with the experimental observations from previous studies. Moreover, we applied this model to predict the treatment effects of three key therapeutic drugs used for MM, and found that the combination of these three drugs potentially suppress the growth of myeloma cells and reactivate the immune response. In summary, the proposed model may serve as a novel computational platform for simulating the formation of MM and evaluating the treatment response of MM to multiple drugs.

Some aspects of optical feedback with cadmium sulfide and related photoconductors. [for extended frequency response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Katzberg, S. J.

1974-01-01

A primary limitation of many solid state photoconductors used in electro-optical systems is their slow response in converting varying light intensities into electrical signals. An optical feedback technique is presented which can extend the frequency response of systems that use these detectors by orders of magnitude without adversely affecting overall signal-to-noise ratio performance. The technique is analyzed to predict the improvement possible and a system is implemented using cadmium sulfide to demonstrate the effectiveness of the technique and the validity of the analysis.

Risk stratification and prognostic performance of the predisposition, infection, response, and organ dysfunction (PIRO) scoring system in septic patients in the emergency department: a cohort study.

PubMed

Chen, Yun-Xia; Li, Chun-Sheng

2014-04-16

The predisposition, infection, response and organ dysfunction (PIRO) staging system was designed as a stratification tool to deal with the inherent heterogeneity of septic patients. The present study was conducted to assess the performance of PIRO in predicting multiple organ dysfunction (MOD), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and 28-day mortality in septic patients in the emergency department (ED), and to compare this scoring system with the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) scores. Consecutive septic patients (n = 680) admitted to the ED of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital were enrolled. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores were calculated for each patient on ED arrival. Organ function was reassessed within 3 days of enrollment. All patients were followed up for 28 days. Outcome criteria were the development of MOD within 3 days, ICU admission or death within 28 days after enrollment. The predictive ability of the four components of PIRO was analyzed separately. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and logistic regression analysis were used to assess the prognostic and risk stratification value of the scoring systems. Organ dysfunction independently predicted ICU admission, MOD, and 28-day mortality, with areas under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.888, 0.851, and 0.816, respectively. The predictive value of predisposition, infection, and response was weaker than that of organ dysfunction. A negative correlation was found between the response component and MOD, as well as mortality. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores significantly differed between patients who did and did not meet the outcome criteria (P < 0.001). PIRO and APACHE II independently predicted ICU admission and MOD, but MEDS did not. All three systems were independent predictors of 28-day mortality with similar AUC values. The AUC of PIRO was 0.889 for ICU admission, 0.817 for MOD, and 0.744 for 28-day mortality. The AUCs of PIRO were significantly greater than those of APACHE II and MEDS (P < 0.05) in predicting ICU admission and MOD. The study indicates that PIRO is helpful for risk stratification and prognostic determinations in septic patients in the ED.

Anger responses to psychosocial stress predict heart rate and cortisol stress responses in men but not women.

PubMed

Lupis, Sarah B; Lerman, Michelle; Wolf, Jutta M

2014-11-01

While previous research has suggested that anger and fear responses to stress are linked to distinct sympathetic nervous system (SNS) stress responses, little is known about how these emotions predict hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis reactivity. Further, earlier research primarily relied on retrospective self-report of emotion. The current study aimed at addressing both issues in male and female individuals by assessing the role of anger and fear in predicting heart rate and cortisol stress responses using both self-report and facial coding analysis to assess emotion responses. We exposed 32 healthy students (18 female; 19.6±1.7 yr) to an acute psychosocial stress paradigm (TSST) and measured heart rate and salivary cortisol levels throughout the protocol. Anger and fear before and after stress exposure was assessed by self-report, and video recordings of the TSST were assessed by a certified facial coder to determine emotion expression (FACS). Self-reported emotions and emotion expressions did not correlate (all p>.23). Increases in self-reported fear predicted blunted cortisol responses in men (β=0.41, p=.04). Also for men, longer durations of anger expression predicted exaggerated cortisol responses (β=0.67 p=.004), and more anger incidences predicted exaggerated cortisol and heart rate responses (β=0.51, p=.033; β=0.46, p=.066, resp.). Anger and fear did not predict SNS or HPA activity for females (all p>.23). The current differential self-report and facial coding findings support the use of multiple modes of emotion assessment. Particularly, FACS but not self-report revealed a robust anger-stress association that could have important downstream health effects for men. For women, future research may clarify the role of other emotions, such as self-conscious expressions of shame, for physiological stress responses. A better understanding of the emotion-stress link may contribute to behavioral interventions targeting health-promoting ways of responding emotionally to stress. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anger responses to psychosocial stress predict heart rate and cortisol stress responses in men but not women

PubMed Central

Lupis, Sarah B.; Lerman, Michelle; Wolf, Jutta M.

2014-01-01

While previous research has suggested that anger and fear responses to stress are linked to distinct sympathetic nervous system (SNS) stress responses, little is known about how these emotions predict hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis reactivity. Further, earlier research primarily relied on retrospective self-report of emotion. The current study aimed at addressing both issues in male and female individuals by assessing the role of anger and fear in predicting heart rate and cortisol stress responses using both self-report and facial coding analysis to assess emotion responses. We exposed 32 healthy students (18 female; 19.6+/−1.7 yrs.) to an acute psychosocial stress paradigm (TSST) and measured heart rate and salivary cortisol levels throughout the protocol. Anger and fear before and after stress exposure was assessed by self-report, and video recordings of the TSST were assessed by a certified facial coder to determine emotion expression (FACS). Self-reported emotions and emotion expressions did not correlate (all p > .23). Increases in self-reported fear predicted blunted cortisol responses in men (β = 0.41, p = .04). Also for men, longer durations of anger expression predicted exaggerated cortisol responses (β = 0.67 p = .004), and more anger incidences predicted exaggerated cortisol and heart rate responses (β = 0.51, p = .033; β = 0.46, p = .066, resp.). Anger and fear did not predict SNS or HPA activity for females (all p > .23). The current differential self-report and facial coding findings support the use of multiple modes of emotion assessment. Particularly, FACS but not self-report revealed a robust anger-stress association that could have important downstream health effects for men. For women, future research may clarify the role of other emotions, such as self-conscious expressions of shame, for physiological stress responses. A better understanding of the emotion-stress link may contribute to behavioral interventions targeting health-promoting ways of responding emotionally to stress. PMID:25064831

Thermal response of a Fermi-Pasta-Ulam chain with Andersen thermostats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Ambrosio, Federico; Baiesi, Marco

2017-11-01

The linear response to temperature variations is well characterised for equilibrium systems but a similar theory is not available, for example, for inertial heat conducting systems, whose paradigm is the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam (FPU) model driven by two different boundary temperatures. For models of inertial systems out of equilibrium, including relaxing systems, we show that Andersen thermostats are a natural tool for studying the thermal response. We derive a fluctuation-response relation that allows to predict thermal expansion coefficients or the heat capacitance in nonequilibrium regimes. Simulations of the FPU chain of oscillators suggest that estimates of susceptibilities obtained with our relation are better than those obtained via a small perturbation.

Validation of catchment models for predicting land-use and climate change impacts. 2. Case study for a Mediterranean catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkin, G.; O'Donnell, G.; Ewen, J.; Bathurst, J. C.; O'Connell, P. E.; Lavabre, J.

1996-02-01

Validation methods commonly used to test catchment models are not capable of demonstrating a model's fitness for making predictions for catchments where the catchment response is not known (including hypothetical catchments, and future conditions of existing catchments which are subject to land-use or climate change). This paper describes the first use of a new method of validation (Ewen and Parkin, 1996. J. Hydrol., 175: 583-594) designed to address these types of application; the method involves making 'blind' predictions of selected hydrological responses which are considered important for a particular application. SHETRAN (a physically based, distributed catchment modelling system) is tested on a small Mediterranean catchment. The test involves quantification of the uncertainty in four predicted features of the catchment response (continuous hydrograph, peak discharge rates, monthly runoff, and total runoff), and comparison of observations with the predicted ranges for these features. The results of this test are considered encouraging.

A Humidity-Driven Prediction System for Influenza Outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thrastarson, H. T.; Teixeira, J.

2015-12-01

Recent studies have highlighted the role of absolute (or specific) humidity conditions as a leading explanation for the seasonal behavior of influenza outbreaks in temperate regions. If the timing and intensity of seasonal influenza outbreaks can be forecast, this would be of great value for public health response efforts. We have developed and implemented a SIRS (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible) type numerical prediction system that is driven by specific humidity to predict influenza outbreaks. For the humidity, we have explored using both satellite data from the AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder) instrument as well as ERA-Interim re-analysis data. We discuss the development, testing, sensitivities and limitations of the prediction system and show results for influenza outbreaks in the United States during the years 2010-2014 (modeled in retrospect). Comparisons are made with other existing prediction systems and available data for influenza outbreaks from Google Flu Trends and the CDC (Center for Disease Control), and the incorporation of these datasets into the forecasting system is discussed.

Taking stress response out of the box: stability, discontinuity, and temperament effects on HPA and SNS across social stressors in mother-infant dyads.

PubMed

Laurent, Heidemarie K; Ablow, Jennifer C; Measelle, Jeffrey

2012-01-01

This study investigated continuity and stability of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) and sympathetic nervous system (SNS) response measures in mother-infant dyads across 2 different types of social stress sessions. Synchrony of response trajectories across systems (SNS-HPA coordination) and partners (mother-infant attunement) was addressed, as were associations with infant temperament. Primiparous mothers and their 18-month-old infants (n = 86 dyads) completed an attachment stressor--Strange Situation (Ainsworth, Blehar, Waters, & Wall, 1978)--at Session 1 and challenge stressors--cleanup task and emotion task battery--at Session 2. Mother and infant saliva samples collected to index pre-stress, stress, and post-stress response during each session were assayed for cortisol (HPA marker) and salivary alpha-amylase (sAA; SNS marker). Multilevel modeling of cortisol/sAA trajectories across sessions revealed rank-order stability in mother/infant stress measures but discontinuity in absolute levels; cortisol trajectories were higher during attachment stress, and sAA trajectories were higher during challenge stress. Varying degrees of mother-infant attunement were found across sessions/systems. Infant surgency predicted higher stress measures, and negative affect and effortful control predicted lower stress measures, though associations depended on session/system. Findings are discussed in terms of advancing a multisystemic, contextual definition of developing stress responsiveness.

Advanced Computational Modeling Approaches for Shock Response Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Derkevorkian, Armen; Kolaini, Ali R.; Peterson, Lee

2015-01-01

Motivation: (1) The activation of pyroshock devices such as explosives, separation nuts, pin-pullers, etc. produces high frequency transient structural response, typically from few tens of Hz to several hundreds of kHz. (2) Lack of reliable analytical tools makes the prediction of appropriate design and qualification test levels a challenge. (3) In the past few decades, several attempts have been made to develop methodologies that predict the structural responses to shock environments. (4) Currently, there is no validated approach that is viable to predict shock environments overt the full frequency range (i.e., 100 Hz to 10 kHz). Scope: (1) Model, analyze, and interpret space structural systems with complex interfaces and discontinuities, subjected to shock loads. (2) Assess the viability of a suite of numerical tools to simulate transient, non-linear solid mechanics and structural dynamics problems, such as shock wave propagation.

Influence of the Spatial Dimensions of Ultrasonic Transducers on the Frequency Spectrum of Guided Waves.

PubMed

Samaitis, Vykintas; Mažeika, Liudas

2017-08-08

Ultrasonic guided wave (UGW)-based condition monitoring has shown great promise in detecting, localizing, and characterizing damage in complex systems. However, the application of guided waves for damage detection is challenging due to the existence of multiple modes and dispersion. This results in distorted wave packets with limited resolution and the interference of multiple reflected modes. To develop reliable inspection systems, either the transducers have to be optimized to generate a desired single mode of guided waves with known dispersive properties, or the frequency responses of all modes present in the structure must be known to predict wave interaction. Currently, there is a lack of methods to predict the response spectrum of guided wave modes, especially in cases when multiple modes are being excited simultaneously. Such methods are of vital importance for further understanding wave propagation within the structures as well as wave-damage interaction. In this study, a novel method to predict the response spectrum of guided wave modes was proposed based on Fourier analysis of the particle velocity distribution on the excitation area. The method proposed in this study estimates an excitability function based on the spatial dimensions of the transducer, type of vibration, and dispersive properties of the medium. As a result, the response amplitude as a function of frequency for each guided wave mode present in the structure can be separately obtained. The method was validated with numerical simulations on the aluminum and glass fiber composite samples. The key findings showed that it can be applied to estimate the response spectrum of a guided wave mode on any type of material (either isotropic structures, or multi layered anisotropic composites) and under any type of excitation if the phase velocity dispersion curve and the particle velocity distribution of the wave source was known initially. Thus, the proposed method may be a beneficial tool to explain and predict the response spectrum of guided waves throughout the development of any structural health monitoring system.

Influence of the Spatial Dimensions of Ultrasonic Transducers on the Frequency Spectrum of Guided Waves

PubMed Central

Samaitis, Vykintas; Mažeika, Liudas

2017-01-01

Ultrasonic guided wave (UGW)-based condition monitoring has shown great promise in detecting, localizing, and characterizing damage in complex systems. However, the application of guided waves for damage detection is challenging due to the existence of multiple modes and dispersion. This results in distorted wave packets with limited resolution and the interference of multiple reflected modes. To develop reliable inspection systems, either the transducers have to be optimized to generate a desired single mode of guided waves with known dispersive properties, or the frequency responses of all modes present in the structure must be known to predict wave interaction. Currently, there is a lack of methods to predict the response spectrum of guided wave modes, especially in cases when multiple modes are being excited simultaneously. Such methods are of vital importance for further understanding wave propagation within the structures as well as wave-damage interaction. In this study, a novel method to predict the response spectrum of guided wave modes was proposed based on Fourier analysis of the particle velocity distribution on the excitation area. The method proposed in this study estimates an excitability function based on the spatial dimensions of the transducer, type of vibration, and dispersive properties of the medium. As a result, the response amplitude as a function of frequency for each guided wave mode present in the structure can be separately obtained. The method was validated with numerical simulations on the aluminum and glass fiber composite samples. The key findings showed that it can be applied to estimate the response spectrum of a guided wave mode on any type of material (either isotropic structures, or multi layered anisotropic composites) and under any type of excitation if the phase velocity dispersion curve and the particle velocity distribution of the wave source was known initially. Thus, the proposed method may be a beneficial tool to explain and predict the response spectrum of guided waves throughout the development of any structural health monitoring system. PMID:28786924

Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Illing, Sebastian; Kadow, Christopher; Pohlmann, Holger; Timmreck, Claudia

2018-06-01

The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year and consists of 10 ensemble members. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over 4 years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm day-1 is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized in 2012 with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.

TRAC-PF1 code verification with data from the OTIS test facility. [Once-Through Intergral System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Childerson, M.T.; Fujita, R.K.

1985-01-01

A computer code (TRAC-PF1/MOD1) developed for predicting transient thermal and hydraulic integral nuclear steam supply system (NSSS) response was benchmarked. Post-small break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) data from a scaled, experimental facility, designated the One-Through Integral System (OTIS), were obtained for the Babcock and Wilcox NSSS and compared to TRAC predictions. The OTIS tests provided a challenging small break LOCA data set for TRAC verification. The major phases of a small break LOCA observed in the OTIS tests included pressurizer draining and loop saturation, intermittent reactor coolant system circulation, boiler-condenser mode, and the initial stages of refill. The TRAC code wasmore » successful in predicting OTIS loop conditions (system pressures and temperatures) after modification of the steam generator model. In particular, the code predicted both pool and auxiliary-feedwater initiated boiler-condenser mode heat transfer.« less

Real-time open-loop frequency response analysis of flight test data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosworth, J. T.; West, J. C.

1986-01-01

A technique has been developed to compare the open-loop frequency response of a flight test aircraft real time with linear analysis predictions. The result is direct feedback to the flight control systems engineer on the validity of predictions and adds confidence for proceeding with envelope expansion. Further, gain and phase margins can be tracked for trends in a manner similar to the techniques used by structural dynamics engineers in tracking structural modal damping.

Model Predictive Flight Control System with Full State Observer using H∞ Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanwale, Jitu; Singh, Dhan Jeet

2018-03-01

This paper presents the application of the model predictive approach to design a flight control system (FCS) for longitudinal dynamics of a fixed wing aircraft. Longitudinal dynamics is derived for a conventional aircraft. Open loop aircraft response analysis is carried out. Simulation studies are illustrated to prove the efficacy of the proposed model predictive controller using H ∞ state observer. The estimation criterion used in the {H}_{∞} observer design is to minimize the worst possible effects of the modelling errors and additive noise on the parameter estimation.

Infrared heater system for warming tropical forest understory plants and soils

Treesearch

Bruce A. Kimball; Aura M. Alonso-Rodríguez; Molly A. Cavaleri; Sasha C. Reed; Grizelle González; Tana E. Wood

2018-01-01

The response of tropical forests to global warming is one of the largest uncertainties in predicting the future carbon balance of Earth. To determine the likely effects of elevated temperatures on tropical forest understory plants and soils, as well as other ecosystems, an infrared (IR) heater system was developed to provide in situ warming for the Tropical Responses...

International-Domestic Student Differences in Learning: Use of Classroom Response Systems in China versus in Canada

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fan, Hong; Power, Jeffrey W.; Song, Xiaofei

2017-01-01

This study compares the impact of audience response systems (clickers) on the learning experience and classroom behavior of Chinese and Canadian students. Based on differences in student learning styles, which are rooted in the differences in national cultures, we predict that clicker technology will result in a more positive learning experience,…

Assessing the Integration of Audience Response System Technology in Teaching of Anatomical Sciences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alexander, Cara J.; Crescini, Weronika M.; Juskewitch, Justin E.; Lachman, Nirusha; Pawlina, Wojciech

2009-01-01

The goals of our study were to determine the predictive value and usability of an audience response system (ARS) as a knowledge assessment tool in an undergraduate medical curriculum. Over a three year period (2006-2008), data were collected from first year didactic blocks in Genetics/Histology and Anatomy/Radiology (n = 42-50 per class). During…

Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Novak, Mark; Wootton, J. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Emmerson, Mark; Estes, James A.; Tinker, M. Timothy

2011-01-01

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (∼25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.

Prediction of lithium response in first-episode mania using the LITHium Intelligent Agent (LITHIA): Pilot data and proof-of-concept.

PubMed

Fleck, David E; Ernest, Nicholas; Adler, Caleb M; Cohen, Kelly; Eliassen, James C; Norris, Matthew; Komoroski, Richard A; Chu, Wen-Jang; Welge, Jeffrey A; Blom, Thomas J; DelBello, Melissa P; Strakowski, Stephen M

2017-06-01

Individualized treatment for bipolar disorder based on neuroimaging treatment targets remains elusive. To address this shortcoming, we developed a linguistic machine learning system based on a cascading genetic fuzzy tree (GFT) design called the LITHium Intelligent Agent (LITHIA). Using multiple objectively defined functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy ( 1 H-MRS) inputs, we tested whether LITHIA could accurately predict the lithium response in participants with first-episode bipolar mania. We identified 20 subjects with first-episode bipolar mania who received an adequate trial of lithium over 8 weeks and both fMRI and 1 H-MRS scans at baseline pre-treatment. We trained LITHIA using 18 1 H-MRS and 90 fMRI inputs over four training runs to classify treatment response and predict symptom reductions. Each training run contained a randomly selected 80% of the total sample and was followed by a 20% validation run. Over a different randomly selected distribution of the sample, we then compared LITHIA to eight common classification methods. LITHIA demonstrated nearly perfect classification accuracy and was able to predict post-treatment symptom reductions at 8 weeks with at least 88% accuracy in training and 80% accuracy in validation. Moreover, LITHIA exceeded the predictive capacity of the eight comparator methods and showed little tendency towards overfitting. The results provided proof-of-concept that a novel GFT is capable of providing control to a multidimensional bioinformatics problem-namely, prediction of the lithium response-in a pilot data set. Future work on this, and similar machine learning systems, could help assign psychiatric treatments more efficiently, thereby optimizing outcomes and limiting unnecessary treatment. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Renin-angiotensin system phenotyping as a guidance toward personalized medicine for ACE inhibitors: can the response to ACE inhibition be predicted on the basis of plasma renin or ACE?

PubMed

Schilders, Joyce E M; Wu, Haiyan; Boomsma, Frans; van den Meiracker, Anton H; Danser, A H Jan

2014-08-01

Not all hypertensive patients respond well to ACE inhibition. Here we determined whether renin-angiotensin system (RAS) phenotyping, i.e., the measurement of renin or ACE, can predict the individual response to RAS blockade, either chronically (enalapril vs. enalapril + candesartan) or acutely (enalapril ± hydrochlorothiazide, HCT). Chronic enalapril + candesartan induced larger renin rises, but did not lower blood pressure (BP) more than enalapril. Similar observations were made for enalapril + HCT vs. enalapril when given acutely. Baseline renin predicted the peak changes in BP chronically, but not acutely. Baseline ACE levels had no predictive value. Yet, after acute drug intake, the degree of ACE inhibition, like Δrenin, did correlate with ΔBP. Only the relationship with Δrenin remained significant after chronic RAS blockade. Thus, a high degree of ACE inhibition and a steep renin rise associate with larger acute responses to enalapril. However, variation was large, ranging >50 mm Hg for a given degree of ACE inhibition or Δrenin. The same was true for the relationships between Δrenin and ΔBP, and between baseline renin and the maximum reduction in BP in the chronic study. Our data do not support that RAS phenotyping will help to predict the individual BP response to RAS blockade. Notably, these conclusions were reached in a carefully characterized, homogenous population, and when taking into account the known fluctuations in renin that relate to gender, age, ethnicity, salt intake and diuretic treatment, it seems unlikely that a cut-off renin level can be defined that has predictive value.

Data Comparisons and Summary of the Second Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heeg, Jennifer; Wieseman, Carol D.; Chwalowski, Pawel

2016-01-01

This paper presents the computational results generated by participating teams of the second Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop and compare them with experimental data. Aeroelastic and rigid configurations of the Benchmark Supercritical Wing (BSCW) wind tunnel model served as the focus for the workshop. The comparison data sets include unforced ("steady") system responses, forced pitch oscillations and coupled fluid-structure responses. Integrated coefficients, frequency response functions, and flutter onset conditions are compared. The flow conditions studied were in the transonic range, including both attached and separated flow conditions. Some of the technical discussions that took place at the workshop are summarized.

Thermal Response Of Composite Insulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, David A.; Leiser, Daniel B.; Smith, Marnell; Kolodziej, Paul

1988-01-01

Engineering model gives useful predictions. Pair of reports presents theoretical and experimental analyses of thermal responses of multiple-component, lightweight, porous, ceramic insulators. Particular materials examined destined for use in Space Shuttle thermal protection system, test methods and heat-transfer theory useful to chemical, metallurgical, and ceramic engineers needing to calculate transient thermal responses of refractory composites.

Stressor-response modeling using the 2D water quality model and regression trees to predict chlorophyll-a in a reservoir system

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In order to control algal blooms, stressor-response relationships between water quality metrics, environmental variables, and algal growth should be understood and modeled. Machine-learning methods were suggested to express stressor-response relationships found by application of mechanistic water qu...

Valve movement response of the freshwater clam Corbicula fluminea following exposure to waterborne arsenic.

PubMed

Liao, Chung-Min; Jau, Sheng-Feng; Lin, Chieh-Ming; Jou, Li-John; Liu, Chen-Wuing; Liao, Vivian Hsiu-Chuan; Chang, Fi-John

2009-07-01

We developed an inductance-based valvometry technique as a detection system to measure the valve daily activity in freshwater clam Corbicula fluminea in response to waterborne arsenic. Our findings reveal that C. fluminea experiences a valve opening in the absence of arsenic predominantly in the morning hours (03:00-08:00) with a mean daily opening/closing period of 21.32 (95% CI: 20.58-22.05) h. Amplification of daily activity occurred in the presence of arsenic. Behavioral toxicity assays revealed arsenic detection thresholds of 0.60 (95% CI: 0.53-0.66) mg l(-1) and 0.35 (95% CI: 0.30-0.40) mg l(-1) for response times of 60 and 300 min, respectively. The proposed valve daily activity model was linked with response time-specific Hill dose-response functions to predict valve opening/closing behavior in response to arsenic. The predictive capabilities were verified satisfactory with the measurements. Our results implicate a biomonitoring system by valve daily activity in C. fluminea to identify safe water uses in areas with elevated arsenic.

Early warning and response system (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks: Recent advancements towards widespread applications in critical settings

PubMed Central

Kroeger, Axel; Olliaro, Piero; Rocklöv, Joacim; Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo; Tejeda, Gustavo; Benitez, David; Gill, Balvinder; Hakim, S. Lokman; Gomes Carvalho, Roberta; Bowman, Leigh; Petzold, Max

2018-01-01

Background Dengue outbreaks are increasing in frequency over space and time, affecting people’s health and burdening resource-constrained health systems. The ability to detect early emerging outbreaks is key to mounting an effective response. The early warning and response system (EWARS) is a toolkit that provides countries with early-warning systems for efficient and cost-effective local responses. EWARS uses outbreak and alarm indicators to derive prediction models that can be used prospectively to predict a forthcoming dengue outbreak at district level. Methods We report on the development of the EWARS tool, based on users’ recommendations into a convenient, user-friendly and reliable software aided by a user’s workbook and its field testing in 30 health districts in Brazil, Malaysia and Mexico. Findings 34 Health officers from the 30 study districts who had used the original EWARS for 7 to 10 months responded to a questionnaire with mainly open-ended questions. Qualitative content analysis showed that participants were generally satisfied with the tool but preferred open-access vs. commercial software. EWARS users also stated that the geographical unit should be the district, while access to meteorological information should be improved. These recommendations were incorporated into the second-generation EWARS-R, using the free R software, combined with recent surveillance data and resulted in higher sensitivities and positive predictive values of alarm signals compared to the first-generation EWARS. Currently the use of satellite data for meteorological information is being tested and a dashboard is being developed to increase user-friendliness of the tool. The inclusion of other Aedes borne viral diseases is under discussion. Conclusion EWARS is a pragmatic and useful tool for detecting imminent dengue outbreaks to trigger early response activities. PMID:29727447

Early warning and response system (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks: Recent advancements towards widespread applications in critical settings.

PubMed

Hussain-Alkhateeb, Laith; Kroeger, Axel; Olliaro, Piero; Rocklöv, Joacim; Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo; Tejeda, Gustavo; Benitez, David; Gill, Balvinder; Hakim, S Lokman; Gomes Carvalho, Roberta; Bowman, Leigh; Petzold, Max

2018-01-01

Dengue outbreaks are increasing in frequency over space and time, affecting people's health and burdening resource-constrained health systems. The ability to detect early emerging outbreaks is key to mounting an effective response. The early warning and response system (EWARS) is a toolkit that provides countries with early-warning systems for efficient and cost-effective local responses. EWARS uses outbreak and alarm indicators to derive prediction models that can be used prospectively to predict a forthcoming dengue outbreak at district level. We report on the development of the EWARS tool, based on users' recommendations into a convenient, user-friendly and reliable software aided by a user's workbook and its field testing in 30 health districts in Brazil, Malaysia and Mexico. 34 Health officers from the 30 study districts who had used the original EWARS for 7 to 10 months responded to a questionnaire with mainly open-ended questions. Qualitative content analysis showed that participants were generally satisfied with the tool but preferred open-access vs. commercial software. EWARS users also stated that the geographical unit should be the district, while access to meteorological information should be improved. These recommendations were incorporated into the second-generation EWARS-R, using the free R software, combined with recent surveillance data and resulted in higher sensitivities and positive predictive values of alarm signals compared to the first-generation EWARS. Currently the use of satellite data for meteorological information is being tested and a dashboard is being developed to increase user-friendliness of the tool. The inclusion of other Aedes borne viral diseases is under discussion. EWARS is a pragmatic and useful tool for detecting imminent dengue outbreaks to trigger early response activities.

Short and long term improvements in quality of chronic care delivery predict program sustainability.

PubMed

Cramm, Jane Murray; Nieboer, Anna Petra

2014-01-01

Empirical evidence on sustainability of programs that improve the quality of care delivery over time is lacking. Therefore, this study aims to identify the predictive role of short and long term improvements in quality of chronic care delivery on program sustainability. In this longitudinal study, professionals [2010 (T0): n=218, 55% response rate; 2011 (T1): n=300, 68% response rate; 2012 (T2): n=265, 63% response rate] from 22 Dutch disease-management programs completed surveys assessing quality of care and program sustainability. Our study findings indicated that quality of chronic care delivery improved significantly in the first 2 years after implementation of the disease-management programs. At T1, overall quality, self-management support, delivery system design, and integration of chronic care components, as well as health care delivery and clinical information systems and decision support, had improved. At T2, overall quality again improved significantly, as did community linkages, delivery system design, clinical information systems, decision support and integration of chronic care components, and self-management support. Multilevel regression analysis revealed that quality of chronic care delivery at T0 (p<0.001) and quality changes in the first (p<0.001) and second (p<0.01) years predicted program sustainability. In conclusion this study showed that disease-management programs based on the chronic care model improved the quality of chronic care delivery over time and that short and long term changes in the quality of chronic care delivery predicted the sustainability of the projects. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear random response prediction using MSC/NASTRAN

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, J. H.; Chiang, C. K.; Rizzi, S. A.

1993-01-01

An equivalent linearization technique was incorporated into MSC/NASTRAN to predict the nonlinear random response of structures by means of Direct Matrix Abstract Programming (DMAP) modifications and inclusion of the nonlinear differential stiffness module inside the iteration loop. An iterative process was used to determine the rms displacements. Numerical results obtained for validation on simple plates and beams are in good agreement with existing solutions in both the linear and linearized regions. The versatility of the implementation will enable the analyst to determine the nonlinear random responses for complex structures under combined loads. The thermo-acoustic response of a hexagonal thermal protection system panel is used to highlight some of the features of the program.

Functional brain imaging predicts public health campaign success

PubMed Central

O’Donnell, Matthew Brook; Tompson, Steven; Gonzalez, Richard; Dal Cin, Sonya; Strecher, Victor; Cummings, Kenneth Michael; An, Lawrence

2016-01-01

Mass media can powerfully affect health decision-making. Pre-testing through focus groups or surveys is a standard, though inconsistent, predictor of effectiveness. Converging evidence demonstrates that activity within brain systems associated with self-related processing can predict individual behavior in response to health messages. Preliminary evidence also suggests that neural activity in small groups can forecast population-level campaign outcomes. Less is known about the psychological processes that link neural activity and population-level outcomes, or how these predictions are affected by message content. We exposed 50 smokers to antismoking messages and used their aggregated neural activity within a ‘self-localizer’ defined region of medial prefrontal cortex to predict the success of the same campaign messages at the population level (n = 400 000 emails). Results demonstrate that: (i) independently localized neural activity during health message exposure complements existing self-report data in predicting population-level campaign responses (model combined R2 up to 0.65) and (ii) this relationship depends on message content—self-related neural processing predicts outcomes in response to strong negative arguments against smoking and not in response to compositionally similar neutral images. These data advance understanding of the psychological link between brain and large-scale behavior and may aid the construction of more effective media health campaigns. PMID:26400858

Drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds in the ECMWF System 4 and a statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, M. A.; Donat, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

As extreme wind speeds are responsible for large socio-economic losses in Europe, a skillful prediction would be of great benefit for disaster prevention as well as for the actuarial community. Here we evaluate patterns of large-scale atmospheric variability and the seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds (e.g. >95th percentile) in the European domain in the dynamical seasonal forecast system ECMWF System 4, and compare to the predictability based on a statistical prediction model. The dominant patterns of atmospheric variability show distinct differences between reanalysis and ECMWF System 4, with most patterns in System 4 extended downstream in comparison to ERA-Interim. The dissimilar manifestations of the patterns within the two models lead to substantially different drivers associated with the occurrence of extreme winds in the respective model. While the ECMWF System 4 is shown to provide some predictive power over Scandinavia and the eastern Atlantic, only very few grid cells in the European domain have significant correlations for extreme wind speeds in System 4 compared to ERA-Interim. In contrast, a statistical model predicts extreme wind speeds during boreal winter in better agreement with the observations. Our results suggest that System 4 does not seem to capture the potential predictability of extreme winds that exists in the real world, and therefore fails to provide reliable seasonal predictions for lead months 2-4. This is likely related to the unrealistic representation of large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability. Hence our study points to potential improvements of dynamical prediction skill by improving the simulation of large-scale atmospheric dynamics.

Systemic Corticosteroid Responses in Children with Severe Asthma: Phenotypic and Endotypic Features.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, Anne M; Stephenson, Susan T; Brown, Milton R; Nguyen, Khristopher; Douglas, Shaneka; Brown, Lou Ann S

Severe asthma in children is a heterogeneous disorder associated with variable responses to corticosteroid treatment. Criterion standards for corticosteroid responsiveness assessment in children are lacking. This study sought to characterize systemic corticosteroid responses in children with severe asthma after treatment with intramuscular triamcinolone and to identify phenotypic and molecular predictors of an intramuscular triamcinolone response. Asthma-related quality of life, exhaled nitric oxide, blood eosinophils, lung function, and inflammatory cytokine and chemokine mRNA gene expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells were assessed in 56 children with severe asthma at baseline and 14 days after intramuscular triamcinolone injection. The Asthma Control Questionnaire was used to classify children with severe asthma into corticosteroid response groups. Three groups of children with severe asthma were identified: controlled severe asthma, children who achieved control after triamcinolone, and children who did not achieve control. At baseline, these groups were phenotypically similar. After triamcinolone, discordance between symptoms, lung function, exhaled nitric oxide, and blood eosinophils was noted. Clinical phenotypic predictors were of limited utility in predicting the triamcinolone response, whereas systemic mRNA expression of inflammatory cytokines and chemokines related to IL-2, IL-10, and TNF signaling pathways, namely, AIMP1, CCR2, IL10RB, and IL5, strongly differentiated children who failed to achieve control with triamcinolone administration. Systemic corticosteroid responsiveness in children with severe asthma is heterogeneous. Alternative prediction models that include molecular endotypic as well as clinical phenotypic features are needed to identify which children derive the most clinical benefit from systemic corticosteroid step-up therapy given the potential side effects. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Linear dynamic coupling in geared rotor systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

David, J. W.; Mitchell, L. D.

1986-01-01

The effects of high frequency oscillations caused by the gear mesh, on components of a geared system that can be modeled as rigid discs are analyzed using linear dynamic coupling terms. The coupled, nonlinear equations of motion for a disc attached to a rotating shaft are presented. The results of a trial problem analysis show that the inclusion of the linear dynamic coupling terms can produce significant changes in the predicted response of geared rotor systems, and that the produced sideband responses are greater than the unbalanced response. The method is useful in designing gear drives for heavy-lift helicopters, industrial speed reducers, naval propulsion systems, and heavy off-road equipment.

Actual measurement, hygrothermal response experiment and growth prediction analysis of microbial contamination of central air conditioning system in Dalian, China

PubMed Central

Lv, Yang; Hu, Guangyao; Wang, Chunyang; Yuan, Wenjie; Wei, Shanshan; Gao, Jiaoqi; Wang, Boyuan; Song, Fangchao

2017-01-01

The microbial contamination of central air conditioning system is one of the important factors that affect the indoor air quality. Actual measurement and analysis were carried out on microbial contamination in central air conditioning system at a venue in Dalian, China. Illumina miseq method was used and three fungal samples of two units were analysed by high throughput sequencing. Results showed that the predominant fungus in air conditioning unit A and B were Candida spp. and Cladosporium spp., and two fungus were further used in the hygrothermal response experiment. Based on the data of Cladosporium in hygrothermal response experiment, this paper used the logistic equation and the Gompertz equation to fit the growth predictive model of Cladosporium genera in different temperature and relative humidity conditions, and the square root model was fitted based on the two environmental factors. In addition, the models were carried on the analysis to verify the accuracy and feasibility of the established model equation. PMID:28367963

Structural Dynamics of Electronic Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhir, E.

2013-03-01

The published work on analytical ("mathematical") and computer-aided, primarily finite-element-analysis (FEA) based, predictive modeling of the dynamic response of electronic systems to shocks and vibrations is reviewed. While understanding the physics of and the ability to predict the response of an electronic structure to dynamic loading has been always of significant importance in military, avionic, aeronautic, automotive and maritime electronics, during the last decade this problem has become especially important also in commercial, and, particularly, in portable electronics in connection with accelerated testing of various surface mount technology (SMT) systems on the board level. The emphasis of the review is on the nonlinear shock-excited vibrations of flexible printed circuit boards (PCBs) experiencing shock loading applied to their support contours during drop tests. At the end of the review we provide, as a suitable and useful illustration, the exact solution to a highly nonlinear problem of the dynamic response of a "flexible-and-heavy" PCB to an impact load applied to its support contour during drop testing.

Actual measurement, hygrothermal response experiment and growth prediction analysis of microbial contamination of central air conditioning system in Dalian, China.

PubMed

Lv, Yang; Hu, Guangyao; Wang, Chunyang; Yuan, Wenjie; Wei, Shanshan; Gao, Jiaoqi; Wang, Boyuan; Song, Fangchao

2017-04-03

The microbial contamination of central air conditioning system is one of the important factors that affect the indoor air quality. Actual measurement and analysis were carried out on microbial contamination in central air conditioning system at a venue in Dalian, China. Illumina miseq method was used and three fungal samples of two units were analysed by high throughput sequencing. Results showed that the predominant fungus in air conditioning unit A and B were Candida spp. and Cladosporium spp., and two fungus were further used in the hygrothermal response experiment. Based on the data of Cladosporium in hygrothermal response experiment, this paper used the logistic equation and the Gompertz equation to fit the growth predictive model of Cladosporium genera in different temperature and relative humidity conditions, and the square root model was fitted based on the two environmental factors. In addition, the models were carried on the analysis to verify the accuracy and feasibility of the established model equation.

Simulating Quantitative Cellular Responses Using Asynchronous Threshold Boolean Network Ensembles

EPA Science Inventory

With increasing knowledge about the potential mechanisms underlying cellular functions, it is becoming feasible to predict the response of biological systems to genetic and environmental perturbations. Due to the lack of homogeneity in living tissues it is difficult to estimate t...

Exploratory analysis of real personal emergency response call conversations: considerations for personal emergency response spoken dialogue systems.

PubMed

Young, Victoria; Rochon, Elizabeth; Mihailidis, Alex

2016-11-14

The purpose of this study was to derive data from real, recorded, personal emergency response call conversations to help improve the artificial intelligence and decision making capability of a spoken dialogue system in a smart personal emergency response system. The main study objectives were to: develop a model of personal emergency response; determine categories for the model's features; identify and calculate measures from call conversations (verbal ability, conversational structure, timing); and examine conversational patterns and relationships between measures and model features applicable for improving the system's ability to automatically identify call model categories and predict a target response. This study was exploratory and used mixed methods. Personal emergency response calls were pre-classified according to call model categories identified qualitatively from response call transcripts. The relationships between six verbal ability measures, three conversational structure measures, two timing measures and three independent factors: caller type, risk level, and speaker type, were examined statistically. Emergency medical response services were the preferred response for the majority of medium and high risk calls for both caller types. Older adult callers mainly requested non-emergency medical service responders during medium risk situations. By measuring the number of spoken words-per-minute and turn-length-in-words for the first spoken utterance of a call, older adult and care provider callers could be identified with moderate accuracy. Average call taker response time was calculated using the number-of-speaker-turns and time-in-seconds measures. Care providers and older adults used different conversational strategies when responding to call takers. The words 'ambulance' and 'paramedic' may hold different latent connotations for different callers. The data derived from the real personal emergency response recordings may help a spoken dialogue system classify incoming calls by caller type with moderate probability shortly after the initial caller utterance. Knowing the caller type, the target response for the call may be predicted with some degree of probability and the output dialogue could be tailored to this caller type. The average call taker response time measured from real calls may be used to limit the conversation length in a spoken dialogue system before defaulting to a live call taker.

Systems modeling accurately predicts responses to genotoxic agents and their synergism with BCL-2 inhibitors in triple negative breast cancer cells.

PubMed

Lucantoni, Federico; Lindner, Andreas U; O'Donovan, Norma; Düssmann, Heiko; Prehn, Jochen H M

2018-01-19

Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive form of breast cancer which accounts for 15-20% of this disease and is currently treated with genotoxic chemotherapy. The BCL2 (B-cell lymphoma 2) family of proteins controls the process of mitochondrial outer membrane permeabilization (MOMP), which is required for the activation of the mitochondrial apoptosis pathway in response to genotoxic agents. We previously developed a deterministic systems model of BCL2 protein interactions, DR_MOMP that calculates the sensitivity of cells to undergo mitochondrial apoptosis. Here we determined whether DR_MOMP predicts responses of TNBC cells to genotoxic agents and the re-sensitization of resistant cells by BCL2 inhibitors. Using absolute protein levels of BAX, BAK, BCL2, BCL(X)L and MCL1 as input for DR_MOMP, we found a strong correlation between model predictions and responses of a panel of TNBC cells to 24 and 48 h cisplatin (R 2  = 0.96 and 0.95, respectively) and paclitaxel treatments (R 2  = 0.94 and 0.95, respectively). This outperformed single protein correlations (best performer BCL(X)L with R 2 of 0.69 and 0.50 for cisplatin and paclitaxel treatments, respectively) and BCL2 proteins ratio (R 2 of 0.50 for cisplatin and 0.49 for paclitaxel). Next we performed synergy studies using the BCL2 selective antagonist Venetoclax /ABT199, the BCL(X)L selective antagonist WEHI-539, or the MCL1 selective antagonist A-1210477 in combination with cisplatin. In silico predictions by DR_MOMP revealed substantial differences in treatment responses of BCL(X)L, BCL2 or MCL1 inhibitors combinations with cisplatin that were successfully validated in cell lines. Our findings provide evidence that DR_MOMP predicts responses of TNBC cells to genotoxic therapy, and can aid in the choice of the optimal BCL2 protein antagonist for combination treatments of resistant cells.

The Predictive Validity of Interim Assessment Scores Based on the Full-Information Bifactor Model for the Prediction of End-of-Grade Test Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Immekus, Jason C.; Atitya, Ben

2016-01-01

Interim tests are a central component of district-wide assessment systems, yet their technical quality to guide decisions (e.g., instructional) has been repeatedly questioned. In response, the study purpose was to investigate the validity of a series of English Language Arts (ELA) interim assessments in terms of dimensionality and prediction of…

Resolving Mixed Algal Species in Hyperspectral Images

PubMed Central

Mehrubeoglu, Mehrube; Teng, Ming Y.; Zimba, Paul V.

2014-01-01

We investigated a lab-based hyperspectral imaging system's response from pure (single) and mixed (two) algal cultures containing known algae types and volumetric combinations to characterize the system's performance. The spectral response to volumetric changes in single and combinations of algal mixtures with known ratios were tested. Constrained linear spectral unmixing was applied to extract the algal content of the mixtures based on abundances that produced the lowest root mean square error. Percent prediction error was computed as the difference between actual percent volumetric content and abundances at minimum RMS error. Best prediction errors were computed as 0.4%, 0.4% and 6.3% for the mixed spectra from three independent experiments. The worst prediction errors were found as 5.6%, 5.4% and 13.4% for the same order of experiments. Additionally, Beer-Lambert's law was utilized to relate transmittance to different volumes of pure algal suspensions demonstrating linear logarithmic trends for optical property measurements. PMID:24451451

Development and experimental validation of computational methods to simulate abnormal thermal and structural environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moya, J. L.; Skocypec, R. D.; Thomas, R. K.

1993-09-01

Over the past 40 years, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has been actively engaged in research to improve the ability to accurately predict the response of engineered systems to abnormal thermal and structural environments. These engineered systems contain very hazardous materials. Assessing the degree of safety/risk afforded the public and environment by these engineered systems, therefore, is of upmost importance. The ability to accurately predict the response of these systems to accidents (to abnormal environments) is required to assess the degree of safety. Before the effect of the abnormal environment on these systems can be determined, it is necessary to ascertain the nature of the environment. Ascertaining the nature of the environment, in turn, requires the ability to physically characterize and numerically simulate the abnormal environment. Historically, SNL has demonstrated the level of safety provided by these engineered systems by either of two approaches: a purely regulatory approach, or by a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This paper will address the latter of the two approaches.

Influence of trait behavioral inhibition and behavioral approach motivation systems on the LPP and frontal asymmetry to anger pictures.

PubMed

Gable, Philip A; Poole, Bryan D

2014-02-01

Behavioral approach and avoidance are fundamental to the experience of emotion and motivation, but the motivational system associated with anger is not well established. Some theories posit that approach motivational processes underlie anger, whereas others posit that avoidance motivational processes underlie anger. The current experiment sought to address whether traits related to behavioral approach or avoidance influence responses to anger stimuli using multiple measures: ERP, electroencephalographic (EEG) α-asymmetry and self-report. After completing the behavioral inhibition system/behavioral approach system (BIS/BAS) scales, participants viewed anger pictures and neutral pictures. BAS predicted larger late positive potentials (LPPs) to anger pictures, but not to neutral pictures. In addition, BAS predicted greater left-frontal asymmetry to anger pictures. Moreover, larger LPPs to anger pictures related to greater left-frontal EEG asymmetry during anger pictures. These results suggest that trait approach motivation relates to neurophysiological responses of anger.

Influence of trait behavioral inhibition and behavioral approach motivation systems on the LPP and frontal asymmetry to anger pictures

PubMed Central

Poole, Bryan D.

2014-01-01

Behavioral approach and avoidance are fundamental to the experience of emotion and motivation, but the motivational system associated with anger is not well established. Some theories posit that approach motivational processes underlie anger, whereas others posit that avoidance motivational processes underlie anger. The current experiment sought to address whether traits related to behavioral approach or avoidance influence responses to anger stimuli using multiple measures: ERP, electroencephalographic (EEG) α-asymmetry and self-report. After completing the behavioral inhibition system/behavioral approach system (BIS/BAS) scales, participants viewed anger pictures and neutral pictures. BAS predicted larger late positive potentials (LPPs) to anger pictures, but not to neutral pictures. In addition, BAS predicted greater left-frontal asymmetry to anger pictures. Moreover, larger LPPs to anger pictures related to greater left-frontal EEG asymmetry during anger pictures. These results suggest that trait approach motivation relates to neurophysiological responses of anger. PMID:23175676

Predicting Response to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Esophageal Cancer with Textural Features Derived from Pretreatment 18F-FDG PET/CT Imaging.

PubMed

Beukinga, Roelof J; Hulshoff, Jan B; van Dijk, Lisanne V; Muijs, Christina T; Burgerhof, Johannes G M; Kats-Ugurlu, Gursah; Slart, Riemer H J A; Slump, Cornelis H; Mul, Véronique E M; Plukker, John Th M

2017-05-01

Adequate prediction of tumor response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in esophageal cancer (EC) patients is important in a more personalized treatment. The current best clinical method to predict pathologic complete response is SUV max in 18 F-FDG PET/CT imaging. To improve the prediction of response, we constructed a model to predict complete response to nCRT in EC based on pretreatment clinical parameters and 18 F-FDG PET/CT-derived textural features. Methods: From a prospectively maintained single-institution database, we reviewed 97 consecutive patients with locally advanced EC and a pretreatment 18 F-FDG PET/CT scan between 2009 and 2015. All patients were treated with nCRT (carboplatin/paclitaxel/41.4 Gy) followed by esophagectomy. We analyzed clinical, geometric, and pretreatment textural features extracted from both 18 F-FDG PET and CT. The current most accurate prediction model with SUV max as a predictor variable was compared with 6 different response prediction models constructed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regularized logistic regression. Internal validation was performed to estimate the model's performances. Pathologic response was defined as complete versus incomplete response (Mandard tumor regression grade system 1 vs. 2-5). Results: Pathologic examination revealed 19 (19.6%) complete and 78 (80.4%) incomplete responders. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regularization selected the clinical parameters: histologic type and clinical T stage, the 18 F-FDG PET-derived textural feature long run low gray level emphasis, and the CT-derived textural feature run percentage. Introducing these variables to a logistic regression analysis showed areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUCs) of 0.78 compared with 0.58 in the SUV max model. The discrimination slopes were 0.17 compared with 0.01, respectively. After internal validation, the AUCs decreased to 0.74 and 0.54, respectively. Conclusion: The predictive values of the constructed models were superior to the standard method (SUV max ). These results can be considered as an initial step in predicting tumor response to nCRT in locally advanced EC. Further research in refining the predictive value of these models is needed to justify omission of surgery. © 2017 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging.

Regulating task-monitoring systems in response to variable reward contingencies and outcomes in cocaine addicts.

PubMed

Morie, Kristen P; De Sanctis, Pierfilippo; Garavan, Hugh; Foxe, John J

2016-03-01

We investigated anticipatory and consummatory reward processing in cocaine addiction. In addition, we set out to assess whether task-monitoring systems were appropriately recalibrated in light of variable reward schedules. We also examined neural measures of task-monitoring and reward processing as a function of hedonic tone, since anhedonia is a vulnerability marker for addiction that is obviously germane in the context of reward processing. High-density event-related potentials were recorded while participants performed a speeded response task that systematically varied anticipated probabilities of reward receipt. The paradigm dissociated feedback regarding task success (or failure) from feedback regarding the value of reward (or loss), so that task-monitoring and reward processing could be examined in partial isolation. Twenty-three active cocaine abusers and 23 age-matched healthy controls participated. Cocaine abusers showed amplified anticipatory responses to reward predictive cues, but crucially, these responses were not as strongly modulated by reward probability as in controls. Cocaine users also showed blunted responses to feedback about task success or failure and did not use this information to update predictions about reward. In turn, they showed clearly blunted responses to reward feedback. In controls and users, measures of anhedonia were associated with reward motivation. In cocaine users, anhedonia was also associated with diminished monitoring and reward feedback responses. Findings imply that reward anticipation and monitoring deficiencies in addiction are associated with increased responsiveness to reward cues but impaired ability to predict reward in light of task contingencies, compounded by deficits in responding to actual reward outcomes.

SRG110 Stirling Generator Dynamic Simulator Vibration Test Results and Analysis Correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, Edward J.; Suarez, Vicente J.; Goodnight, Thomas W.; Callahan, John

2007-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Lockheed Martin (LM), and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) have been developing the Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG110) for use as a power system for space science missions. The launch environment enveloping potential missions results in a random input spectrum that is significantly higher than historical radioisotope power system (RPS) launch levels and is a challenge for designers. Analysis presented in prior work predicted that tailoring the compliance at the generator-spacecraft interface reduced the dynamic response of the system thereby allowing higher launch load input levels and expanding the range of potential generator missions. To confirm analytical predictions, a dynamic simulator representing the generator structure, Stirling convertors and heat sources were designed and built for testing with and without a compliant interface. Finite element analysis was performed to guide the generator simulator and compliant interface design so that test modes and frequencies were representative of the SRG110 generator. This paper presents the dynamic simulator design, the test setup and methodology, test article modes and frequencies and dynamic responses, and post-test analysis results. With the compliant interface, component responses to an input environment exceeding the SRG110 qualification level spectrum were all within design allowables. Post-test analysis included finite element model tuning to match test frequencies and random response analysis using the test input spectrum. Analytical results were in good overall agreement with the test results and confirmed previous predictions that the SRG110 power system may be considered for a broad range of potential missions, including those with demanding launch environments.

Advanced systems biology methods in drug discovery and translational biomedicine.

PubMed

Zou, Jun; Zheng, Ming-Wu; Li, Gen; Su, Zhi-Guang

2013-01-01

Systems biology is in an exponential development stage in recent years and has been widely utilized in biomedicine to better understand the molecular basis of human disease and the mechanism of drug action. Here, we discuss the fundamental concept of systems biology and its two computational methods that have been commonly used, that is, network analysis and dynamical modeling. The applications of systems biology in elucidating human disease are highlighted, consisting of human disease networks, treatment response prediction, investigation of disease mechanisms, and disease-associated gene prediction. In addition, important advances in drug discovery, to which systems biology makes significant contributions, are discussed, including drug-target networks, prediction of drug-target interactions, investigation of drug adverse effects, drug repositioning, and drug combination prediction. The systems biology methods and applications covered in this review provide a framework for addressing disease mechanism and approaching drug discovery, which will facilitate the translation of research findings into clinical benefits such as novel biomarkers and promising therapies.

A Machine Learning Recommender System to Tailor Preference Assessments to Enhance Person-Centered Care Among Nursing Home Residents.

PubMed

Gannod, Gerald C; Abbott, Katherine M; Van Haitsma, Kimberly; Martindale, Nathan; Heppner, Alexandra

2018-05-21

Nursing homes (NHs) using the Preferences for Everyday Living Inventory (PELI-NH) to assess important preferences and provide person-centered care find the number of items (72) to be a barrier to using the assessment. Using a sample of n = 255 NH resident responses to the PELI-NH, we used the 16 preference items from the MDS 3.0 Section F to develop a machine learning recommender system to identify additional PELI-NH items that may be important to specific residents. Much like the Netflix recommender system, our system is based on the concept of collaborative filtering whereby insights and predictions (e.g., filters) are created using the interests and preferences of many users. The algorithm identifies multiple sets of "you might also like" patterns called association rules, based upon responses to the 16 MDS preferences that recommends an additional set of preferences with a high likelihood of being important to a specific resident. In the evaluation of the combined apriori and logistic regression approach, we obtained a high recall performance (i.e., the ratio of correctly predicted preferences compared with all predicted preferences and nonpreferences) and high precision (i.e., the ratio of correctly predicted rules with respect to the rules predicted to be true) of 80.2% and 79.2%, respectively. The recommender system successfully provides guidance on how to best tailor the preference items asked of residents and can support preference capture in busy clinical environments, contributing to the feasibility of delivering person-centered care.

Context-dependent plasticity in the subcortical encoding of linguistic pitch patterns

PubMed Central

Lau, Joseph C. Y.; Wong, Patrick C. M.

2016-01-01

We examined the mechanics of online experience-dependent auditory plasticity by assessing the influence of prior context on the frequency-following responses (FFRs), which reflect phase-locked responses from neural ensembles within the subcortical auditory system. FFRs were elicited to a Cantonese falling lexical pitch pattern from 24 native speakers of Cantonese in a variable context, wherein the falling pitch pattern randomly occurred in the context of two other linguistic pitch patterns; in a patterned context, wherein, the falling pitch pattern was presented in a predictable sequence along with two other pitch patterns, and in a repetitive context, wherein the falling pitch pattern was presented with 100% probability. We found that neural tracking of the stimulus pitch contour was most faithful and accurate when listening context was patterned and least faithful when the listening context was variable. The patterned context elicited more robust pitch tracking relative to the repetitive context, suggesting that context-dependent plasticity is most robust when the context is predictable but not repetitive. Our study demonstrates a robust influence of prior listening context that works to enhance online neural encoding of linguistic pitch patterns. We interpret these results as indicative of an interplay between contextual processes that are responsive to predictability as well as novelty in the presentation context. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Human auditory perception in dynamic listening environments requires fine-tuning of sensory signal based on behaviorally relevant regularities in listening context, i.e., online experience-dependent plasticity. Our finding suggests what partly underlie online experience-dependent plasticity are interplaying contextual processes in the subcortical auditory system that are responsive to predictability as well as novelty in listening context. These findings add to the literature that looks to establish the neurophysiological bases of auditory system plasticity, a central issue in auditory neuroscience. PMID:27832606

Context-dependent plasticity in the subcortical encoding of linguistic pitch patterns.

PubMed

Lau, Joseph C Y; Wong, Patrick C M; Chandrasekaran, Bharath

2017-02-01

We examined the mechanics of online experience-dependent auditory plasticity by assessing the influence of prior context on the frequency-following responses (FFRs), which reflect phase-locked responses from neural ensembles within the subcortical auditory system. FFRs were elicited to a Cantonese falling lexical pitch pattern from 24 native speakers of Cantonese in a variable context, wherein the falling pitch pattern randomly occurred in the context of two other linguistic pitch patterns; in a patterned context, wherein, the falling pitch pattern was presented in a predictable sequence along with two other pitch patterns, and in a repetitive context, wherein the falling pitch pattern was presented with 100% probability. We found that neural tracking of the stimulus pitch contour was most faithful and accurate when listening context was patterned and least faithful when the listening context was variable. The patterned context elicited more robust pitch tracking relative to the repetitive context, suggesting that context-dependent plasticity is most robust when the context is predictable but not repetitive. Our study demonstrates a robust influence of prior listening context that works to enhance online neural encoding of linguistic pitch patterns. We interpret these results as indicative of an interplay between contextual processes that are responsive to predictability as well as novelty in the presentation context. Human auditory perception in dynamic listening environments requires fine-tuning of sensory signal based on behaviorally relevant regularities in listening context, i.e., online experience-dependent plasticity. Our finding suggests what partly underlie online experience-dependent plasticity are interplaying contextual processes in the subcortical auditory system that are responsive to predictability as well as novelty in listening context. These findings add to the literature that looks to establish the neurophysiological bases of auditory system plasticity, a central issue in auditory neuroscience. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Intelligent seismic risk mitigation system on structure building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryanita, R.; Maizir, H.; Yuniorto, E.; Jingga, H.

2018-01-01

Indonesia located on the Pacific Ring of Fire, is one of the highest-risk seismic zone in the world. The strong ground motion might cause catastrophic collapse of the building which leads to casualties and property damages. Therefore, it is imperative to properly design the structural response of building against seismic hazard. Seismic-resistant building design process requires structural analysis to be performed to obtain the necessary building responses. However, the structural analysis could be very difficult and time consuming. This study aims to predict the structural response includes displacement, velocity, and acceleration of multi-storey building with the fixed floor plan using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method based on the 2010 Indonesian seismic hazard map. By varying the building height, soil condition, and seismic location in 47 cities in Indonesia, 6345 data sets were obtained and fed into the ANN model for the learning process. The trained ANN can predict the displacement, velocity, and acceleration responses with up to 96% of predicted rate. The trained ANN architecture and weight factors were later used to build a simple tool in Visual Basic program which possesses the features for prediction of structural response as mentioned previously.

Comparison of Biophysical Characteristics and Predicted Thermophysiological Responses of Three Prototype Body Armor Systems Versus Baseline U.S. Army Body Armor Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-19

effective and scientifically valid method of making comparisons of clothing and equipment changes prior to conducting human research. predictive modeling...valid method of making comparisons of clothing and equipment changes prior to conducting human research. 2 INTRODUCTION Modern day...clothing and equipment changes prior to conducting human research. METHODS Ensembles Three different body armor (BA) plus clothing ensembles were

Mathematics as a Conduit for Translational Research in Post-Traumatic Osteoarthritis

PubMed Central

Ayati, Bruce P.; Kapitanov, Georgi I.; Coleman, Mitchell C.; Anderson, Donald D.; Martin, James A.

2016-01-01

Biomathematical models offer a powerful method of clarifying complex temporal interactions and the relationships among multiple variables in a system. We present a coupled in silico biomathematical model of articular cartilage degeneration in response to impact and/or aberrant loading such as would be associated with injury to an articular joint. The model incorporates fundamental biological and mechanical information obtained from explant and small animal studies to predict post-traumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA) progression, with an eye toward eventual application in human patients. In this sense, we refer to the mathematics as a “conduit of translation”. The new in silico framework presented in this paper involves a biomathematical model for the cellular and biochemical response to strains computed using finite element analysis. The model predicts qualitative responses presently, utilizing system parameter values largely taken from the literature. To contribute to accurate predictions, models need to be accurately parameterized with values that are based on solid science. We discuss a parameter identification protocol that will enable us to make increasingly accurate predictions of PTOA progression using additional data from smaller scale explant and small animal assays as they become available. By distilling the data from the explant and animal assays into parameters for biomathematical models, mathematics can translate experimental data to clinically relevant knowledge. PMID:27653021

Probabilistic Seeking Prediction in P2P VoD Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weiwei; Xu, Tianyin; Gao, Yang; Lu, Sanglu

In P2P VoD streaming systems, user behavior modeling is critical to help optimise user experience as well as system throughput. However, it still remains a challenging task due to the dynamic characteristics of user viewing behavior. In this paper, we consider the problem of user seeking prediction which is to predict the user's next seeking position so that the system can proactively make response. We present a novel method for solving this problem. In our method, frequent sequential patterns mining is first performed to extract abstract states which are not overlapped and cover the whole video file altogether. After mapping the raw training dataset to state transitions according to the abstract states, we use a simpel probabilistic contingency table to build the prediction model. We design an experiment on the synthetic P2P VoD dataset. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Mid-frequency Band Dynamics of Large Space Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coppolino, Robert N.; Adams, Douglas S.

2004-01-01

High and low intensity dynamic environments experienced by a spacecraft during launch and on-orbit operations, respectively, induce structural loads and motions, which are difficult to reliably predict. Structural dynamics in low- and mid-frequency bands are sensitive to component interface uncertainty and non-linearity as evidenced in laboratory testing and flight operations. Analytical tools for prediction of linear system response are not necessarily adequate for reliable prediction of mid-frequency band dynamics and analysis of measured laboratory and flight data. A new MATLAB toolbox, designed to address the key challenges of mid-frequency band dynamics, is introduced in this paper. Finite-element models of major subassemblies are defined following rational frequency-wavelength guidelines. For computational efficiency, these subassemblies are described as linear, component mode models. The complete structural system model is composed of component mode subassemblies and linear or non-linear joint descriptions. Computation and display of structural dynamic responses are accomplished employing well-established, stable numerical methods, modern signal processing procedures and descriptive graphical tools. Parametric sensitivity and Monte-Carlo based system identification tools are used to reconcile models with experimental data and investigate the effects of uncertainties. Models and dynamic responses are exported for employment in applications, such as detailed structural integrity and mechanical-optical-control performance analyses.

Dynamic Shaping of the Defensive Peripersonal Space through Predictive Motor Mechanisms: When the "Near" Becomes "Far".

PubMed

Bisio, Ambra; Garbarini, Francesca; Biggio, Monica; Fossataro, Carlotta; Ruggeri, Piero; Bove, Marco

2017-03-01

The hand blink reflex is a subcortical defensive response, known to dramatically increase when the stimulated hand is statically positioned inside the defensive peripersonal space (DPPS) of the face. Here, we tested in a group of healthy human subjects the hand blink reflex in dynamic conditions, investigating whether the direction of the hand movements (up-to/down-from the face) could modulate it. We found that, on equal hand position, the response enhancement was present only when the hand approached to (and not receded from) the DPPS of the face. This means that, when the hand is close to the face but the subject is planning to move the hand down, the predictive motor system can anticipate the consequence of the movement: the "near" becomes "far." We found similar results both in passive movement condition, when only afferent (visual and proprioceptive) information can be used to estimate the final state of the system, and in motor imagery task, when only efferent (intentional) information is available to predict the consequences of the movement. All these findings provide evidence that the DPPS is dynamically shaped by predictive mechanisms run by the motor system and based on the integration of feedforward and sensory feedback signals. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The defensive peripersonal space (DPPS) has a crucial role for survival, and its modulation is fundamental when we interact with the environment, as when we move our arms. Here, we focused on a defensive response, the hand blink reflex, known to increase when a static hand is stimulated inside the DPPS of the face. We tested the hand blink reflex in dynamic conditions (voluntary, passive, and imagined movements) and we found that, on equal hand position, the response enhancement was present only when the hand approached to (and not receded from) the DPPS of the face. This suggests that, through the integration of efferent and afferent signals, the safety boundary around the body is continuously shaped by the predictive motor system. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/372415-10$15.00/0.

Dose-Response Calculator for ArcGIS

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanser, Steven E.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Leu, Matthias; Nielsen, Scott E.

2011-01-01

The Dose-Response Calculator for ArcGIS is a tool that extends the Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) ArcGIS 10 Desktop application to aid with the visualization of relationships between two raster GIS datasets. A dose-response curve is a line graph commonly used in medical research to examine the effects of different dosage rates of a drug or chemical (for example, carcinogen) on an outcome of interest (for example, cell mutations) (Russell and others, 1982). Dose-response curves have recently been used in ecological studies to examine the influence of an explanatory dose variable (for example, percentage of habitat cover, distance to disturbance) on a predicted response (for example, survival, probability of occurrence, abundance) (Aldridge and others, 2008). These dose curves have been created by calculating the predicted response value from a statistical model at different levels of the explanatory dose variable while holding values of other explanatory variables constant. Curves (plots) developed using the Dose-Response Calculator overcome the need to hold variables constant by using values extracted from the predicted response surface of a spatially explicit statistical model fit in a GIS, which include the variation of all explanatory variables, to visualize the univariate response to the dose variable. Application of the Dose-Response Calculator can be extended beyond the assessment of statistical model predictions and may be used to visualize the relationship between any two raster GIS datasets (see example in tool instructions). This tool generates tabular data for use in further exploration of dose-response relationships and a graph of the dose-response curve.

Dynamic modulation of decision biases by brainstem arousal systems.

PubMed

de Gee, Jan Willem; Colizoli, Olympia; Kloosterman, Niels A; Knapen, Tomas; Nieuwenhuis, Sander; Donner, Tobias H

2017-04-11

Decision-makers often arrive at different choices when faced with repeated presentations of the same evidence. Variability of behavior is commonly attributed to noise in the brain's decision-making machinery. We hypothesized that phasic responses of brainstem arousal systems are a significant source of this variability. We tracked pupil responses (a proxy of phasic arousal) during sensory-motor decisions in humans, across different sensory modalities and task protocols. Large pupil responses generally predicted a reduction in decision bias. Using fMRI, we showed that the pupil-linked bias reduction was (i) accompanied by a modulation of choice-encoding pattern signals in parietal and prefrontal cortex and (ii) predicted by phasic, pupil-linked responses of a number of neuromodulatory brainstem centers involved in the control of cortical arousal state, including the noradrenergic locus coeruleus. We conclude that phasic arousal suppresses decision bias on a trial-by-trial basis, thus accounting for a significant component of the variability of choice behavior.

Dynamic modulation of decision biases by brainstem arousal systems

PubMed Central

de Gee, Jan Willem; Colizoli, Olympia; Kloosterman, Niels A; Knapen, Tomas; Nieuwenhuis, Sander; Donner, Tobias H

2017-01-01

Decision-makers often arrive at different choices when faced with repeated presentations of the same evidence. Variability of behavior is commonly attributed to noise in the brain’s decision-making machinery. We hypothesized that phasic responses of brainstem arousal systems are a significant source of this variability. We tracked pupil responses (a proxy of phasic arousal) during sensory-motor decisions in humans, across different sensory modalities and task protocols. Large pupil responses generally predicted a reduction in decision bias. Using fMRI, we showed that the pupil-linked bias reduction was (i) accompanied by a modulation of choice-encoding pattern signals in parietal and prefrontal cortex and (ii) predicted by phasic, pupil-linked responses of a number of neuromodulatory brainstem centers involved in the control of cortical arousal state, including the noradrenergic locus coeruleus. We conclude that phasic arousal suppresses decision bias on a trial-by-trial basis, thus accounting for a significant component of the variability of choice behavior. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.23232.001 PMID:28383284

Bladder Cancer Treatment Response Assessment in CT using Radiomics with Deep-Learning.

PubMed

Cha, Kenny H; Hadjiiski, Lubomir; Chan, Heang-Ping; Weizer, Alon Z; Alva, Ajjai; Cohan, Richard H; Caoili, Elaine M; Paramagul, Chintana; Samala, Ravi K

2017-08-18

Cross-sectional X-ray imaging has become the standard for staging most solid organ malignancies. However, for some malignancies such as urinary bladder cancer, the ability to accurately assess local extent of the disease and understand response to systemic chemotherapy is limited with current imaging approaches. In this study, we explored the feasibility that radiomics-based predictive models using pre- and post-treatment computed tomography (CT) images might be able to distinguish between bladder cancers with and without complete chemotherapy responses. We assessed three unique radiomics-based predictive models, each of which employed different fundamental design principles ranging from a pattern recognition method via deep-learning convolution neural network (DL-CNN), to a more deterministic radiomics feature-based approach and then a bridging method between the two, utilizing a system which extracts radiomics features from the image patterns. Our study indicates that the computerized assessment using radiomics information from the pre- and post-treatment CT of bladder cancer patients has the potential to assist in assessment of treatment response.

Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, Virginia R.; Wilcox, Douglas A.; Stottlemyer, Robert; Barrow, Wylie; Fagre, Dan; Baron, Jill S.; Price, Jeff; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Allen, Craig D.; Peterson, David L.; Ruggerone, Greg; Doyle, Thomas

2005-01-01

Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

On the nature of the fragment environment created by the range destruction or random failure of solid rocket motor casings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eck, M.; Mukunda, M.

1988-01-01

Given here are predictions of fragment velocities and azimuths resulting from the Space Transportation System Solid Rocket Motor range destruct, or random failure occurring at any time during the 120 seconds of Solid Rocket Motor burn. Results obtained using the analytical methods described showed good agreement between predictions and observations for two specific events. It was shown that these methods have good potential for use in predicting the fragmentation process of a number of generically similar casing systems. It was concluded that coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian calculational methods of the type described here provide a powerful tool for predicting Solid Rocket Motor response.

Systemic effects of ionizing radiation at the proteome and metabolome levels in the blood of cancer patients treated with radiotherapy: the influence of inflammation and radiation toxicity.

PubMed

Jelonek, Karol; Pietrowska, Monika; Widlak, Piotr

2017-07-01

Blood is the most common replacement tissue used to study systemic responses of organisms to different types of pathological conditions and environmental insults. Local irradiation during cancer radiotherapy induces whole body responses that can be observed at the blood proteome and metabolome levels. Hence, comparative blood proteomics and metabolomics are emerging approaches used in the discovery of radiation biomarkers. These techniques enable the simultaneous measurement of hundreds of molecules and the identification of sets of components that can discriminate different physiological states of the human body. Radiation-induced changes are affected by the dose and volume of irradiated tissues; hence, the molecular composition of blood is a hypothetical source of biomarkers for dose assessment and the prediction and monitoring of systemic responses to radiation. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview on the available evidence regarding molecular responses to ionizing radiation detected at the level of the human blood proteome and metabolome. It focuses on patients exposed to radiation during cancer radiotherapy and emphasizes effects related to radiation-induced toxicity and inflammation. Systemic responses to radiation detected at the blood proteome and metabolome levels are primarily related to the intensity of radiation-induced toxicity, including inflammatory responses. Thus, several inflammation-associated molecules can be used to monitor or even predict radiation-induced toxicity. However, these abundant molecular features have a rather limited applicability as universal biomarkers for dose assessment, reflecting the individual predisposition of the immune system and tissue-specific mechanisms involved in radiation-induced damage.

Bladder cancer treatment response assessment with radiomic, clinical, and radiologist semantic features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, Marshall N.; Cha, Kenny H.; Hadjiiski, Lubomir M.; Chan, Heang-Ping; Cohan, Richard H.; Caoili, Elaine M.; Paramagul, Chintana; Alva, Ajjai; Weizer, Alon Z.

2018-02-01

We are developing a decision support system for assisting clinicians in assessment of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy for bladder cancer. Accurate treatment response assessment is crucial for identifying responders and improving quality of life for non-responders. An objective machine learning decision support system may help reduce variability and inaccuracy in treatment response assessment. We developed a predictive model to assess the likelihood that a patient will respond based on image and clinical features. With IRB approval, we retrospectively collected a data set of pre- and post- treatment CT scans along with clinical information from surgical pathology from 98 patients. A linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifier was used to predict the likelihood that a patient would respond to treatment based on radiomic features extracted from CT urography (CTU), a radiologist's semantic feature, and a clinical feature extracted from surgical and pathology reports. The classification accuracy was evaluated using the area under the ROC curve (AUC) with a leave-one-case-out cross validation. The classification accuracy was compared for the systems based on radiomic features, clinical feature, and radiologist's semantic feature. For the system based on only radiomic features the AUC was 0.75. With the addition of clinical information from examination under anesthesia (EUA) the AUC was improved to 0.78. Our study demonstrated the potential of designing a decision support system to assist in treatment response assessment. The combination of clinical features, radiologist semantic features and CTU radiomic features improved the performance of the classifier and the accuracy of treatment response assessment.

Stochastic ground motion simulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rezaeian, Sanaz; Xiaodan, Sun; Beer, Michael; Kougioumtzoglou, Ioannis A.; Patelli, Edoardo; Siu-Kui Au, Ivan

2014-01-01

Strong earthquake ground motion records are fundamental in engineering applications. Ground motion time series are used in response-history dynamic analysis of structural or geotechnical systems. In such analysis, the validity of predicted responses depends on the validity of the input excitations. Ground motion records are also used to develop ground motion prediction equations(GMPEs) for intensity measures such as spectral accelerations that are used in response-spectrum dynamic analysis. Despite the thousands of available strong ground motion records, there remains a shortage of records for large-magnitude earthquakes at short distances or in specific regions, as well as records that sample specific combinations of source, path, and site characteristics.

Reducing Conservatism of Analytic Transient Response Bounds via Shaping Filters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwan, Aiyueh; Bedrossian, Nazareth; Jan, Jiann-Woei; Grigoriadis, Karolos; Hua, Tuyen (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

Recent results show that the peak transient response of a linear system to bounded energy inputs can be computed using the energy-to-peak gain of the system. However, analytically computed peak response bound can be conservative for a class of class bounded energy signals, specifically pulse trains generated from jet firings encountered in space vehicles. In this paper, shaping filters are proposed as a Methodology to reduce the conservatism of peak response analytic bounds. This Methodology was applied to a realistic Space Station assembly operation subject to jet firings. The results indicate that shaping filters indeed reduce the predicted peak response bounds.

A new method for predicting response in complex linear systems. II. [under random or deterministic steady state excitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bogdanoff, J. L.; Kayser, K.; Krieger, W.

1977-01-01

The paper describes convergence and response studies in the low frequency range of complex systems, particularly with low values of damping of different distributions, and reports on the modification of the relaxation procedure required under these conditions. A new method is presented for response estimation in complex lumped parameter linear systems under random or deterministic steady state excitation. The essence of the method is the use of relaxation procedures with a suitable error function to find the estimated response; natural frequencies and normal modes are not computed. For a 45 degree of freedom system, and two relaxation procedures, convergence studies and frequency response estimates were performed. The low frequency studies are considered in the framework of earlier studies (Kayser and Bogdanoff, 1975) involving the mid to high frequency range.

A Trajectory Forecast Model as an Event Response Tool: Tracking an Anhydrous Ammonia Spill in Tampa Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Havens, H.; Luther, M. E.; Meyers, S. D.

2008-12-01

Response time is critical following a hazardous spill in a marine environment and rapid assessment of circulation patterns can mitigate the damage. Tampa Bay Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System (TB- PORTS) data are used to drive a numerical circulation model of the bay for the purpose of hazardous material spill response, monitoring of human health risks, and environmental protection and management. The model is capable of rapidly producing forecast simulations that, in the event of a human health or ecosystem threat, can alert authorities to areas in Tampa Bay with a high probability of being affected by the material. Responders to an anhydrous ammonia spill in November 2007 in Tampa Bay utilized the numerical model of circulation in the estuary to predict where the spill was likely to be transported. The model quickly generated a week-long simulation predicting how winds and currents might move the spill around the bay. The physical mechanisms transporting ammonium alternated from being tidally driven for the initial two days following the spill to a more classical two-layered circulation for the remainder of the simulation. Velocity profiles of Tampa Bay reveal a strong outward flowing current present at the time of the simulation which acted as a significant transport mechanism for ammonium within the bay. Probability distributions, calculated from the predicted model trajectories, guided sampling in the days after the spill resulting in the detection of a toxic Pseudo-nitzschia bloom that likely was initiated as a result of the anhydrous ammonia spill. The prediction system at present is only accessible to scientists in the Ocean Monitoring and Prediction Lab (OMPL) at the University of South Florida. The forecast simulations are compiled into an animation that is provided to end users at their request. In the future, decision makers will be allowed access to an online component of the coastal prediction system that can be used to manage response and mitigation efforts in order to reduce the risk from such disasters as a hazardous material spills or ship groundings.

A global resource allocation strategy governs growth transition kinetics of Escherichia coli

PubMed Central

Erickson, David W; Schink, Severin J.; Patsalo, Vadim; Williamson, James R.; Gerland, Ulrich; Hwa, Terence

2018-01-01

A grand challenge of systems biology is to predict the kinetic responses of living systems to perturbations starting from the underlying molecular interactions. Changes in the nutrient environment have long been used to study regulation and adaptation phenomena in microorganisms1–3 and they remain a topic of active investigation4–11. Although much is known about the molecular interactions that govern the regulation of key metabolic processes in response to applied perturbations12–17, they are insufficiently quantified for predictive bottom-up modelling. Here we develop a top-down approach, expanding the recently established coarse-grained proteome allocation models15,18–20 from steady-state growth into the kinetic regime. Using only qualitative knowledge of the underlying regulatory processes and imposing the condition of flux balance, we derive a quantitative model of bacterial growth transitions that is independent of inaccessible kinetic parameters. The resulting flux-controlled regulation model accurately predicts the time course of gene expression and biomass accumulation in response to carbon upshifts and downshifts (for example, diauxic shifts) without adjustable parameters. As predicted by the model and validated by quantitative proteomics, cells exhibit suboptimal recovery kinetics in response to nutrient shifts owing to a rigid strategy of protein synthesis allocation, which is not directed towards alleviating specific metabolic bottlenecks. Our approach does not rely on kinetic parameters, and therefore points to a theoretical framework for describing a broad range of such kinetic processes without detailed knowledge of the underlying biochemical reactions. PMID:29072300

Evaluation of Neutron Response of Criticality Accident Alarm System Detector to Quasi-Monoenergetic 24 keV Neutrons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsujimura, Norio; Yoshida, Tadayoshi; Yashima, Hiroshi

The criticality accident alarm system (CAAS), which was recently developed and installed at the Japan Atomic Energy Agency's Tokai Reprocessing Plant, consists of a plastic scintillator combined with a cadmium-lined polyethylene moderator and thereby responds to both neutrons and gamma rays. To evaluate the neutron absorbed dose rate response of the CAAS detector, a 24 keV quasi-monoenergetic neutron irradiation experiment was performed at the B-1 facility of the Kyoto University Research Reactor. The detector's evaluated neutron response was confirmed to agree reasonably well with prior computer-predicted responses.

Response of two-band systems to a single-mode quantized field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Z. C.; Shen, H. Z.; Wang, W.; Yi, X. X.

2016-03-01

The response of topological insulators (TIs) to an external weakly classical field can be expressed in terms of Kubo formula, which predicts quantized Hall conductivity of the quantum Hall family. The response of TIs to a single-mode quantized field, however, remains unexplored. In this work, we take the quantum nature of the external field into account and define a Hall conductance to characterize the linear response of a two-band system to the quantized field. The theory is then applied to topological insulators. Comparisons with the traditional Hall conductance are presented and discussed.

Salience Network Connectivity Modulates Skin Conductance Responses in Predicting Arousal Experience

PubMed Central

Xia, Chenjie; Touroutoglou, Alexandra; Quigley, Karen S.; Barrett, Lisa Feldman; Dickerson, Bradford C.

2017-01-01

Individual differences in arousal experience have been linked to differences in resting-state salience network connectivity strength. In this study, we investigated how adding task-related skin conductance responses (SCR), a measure of sympathetic autonomic nervous system activity, can predict additional variance in arousal experience. Thirty-nine young adults rated their subjective experience of arousal to emotionally evocative images while SCRs were measured. They also underwent a separate resting-state fMRI scan. Greater SCR reactivity (an increased number of task-related SCRs) to emotional images and stronger intrinsic salience network connectivity independently predicted more intense experiences of arousal. Salience network connectivity further moderated the effect of SCR reactivity: In individuals with weak salience network connectivity, SCR reactivity more significantly predicted arousal experience, whereas in those with strong salience network connectivity, SCR reactivity played little role in predicting arousal experience. This interaction illustrates the degeneracy in neural mechanisms driving individual differences in arousal experience and highlights the intricate interplay between connectivity in central visceromotor neural circuitry and peripherally expressed autonomic responses in shaping arousal experience. PMID:27991182

Early tumour response as a survival predictor in previously- treated patients receiving triplet hepatic artery infusion and intravenous cetuximab for unresectable liver metastases from wild-type KRAS colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Bouchahda, Mohamed; Boige, Valérie; Smith, Denis; Karaboué, Abdoulaye; Ducreux, Michel; Hebbar, Mohamed; Lepère, Céline; Focan, Christian; Guimbaud, Rosine; Innominato, Pasquale; Awad, Sameh; Carvalho, Carlos; Tumolo, Salvatore; Truant, Stephanie; De Baere, Thierry; Castaing, Denis; Rougier, Philippe; Morère, Jean-François; Taieb, Julien; Adam, René; Lévi, Francis

2016-11-01

Early tumour shrinkage has been associated with improved survival in patients receiving cetuximab-based systemic chemotherapy for liver metastases from colorectal cancer (LM-CRC). We tested this hypothesis for previously treated LM-CRC patients receiving cetuximab (500 mg/m 2 ) and triplet hepatic artery infusion (HAI) within European trial OPTILIV. Irinotecan (180 mg/m 2 ), 5-fluorouracil (2800 mg/m 2 ) and oxaliplatin (85 mg/m 2 ) were given as chronomodulated or conventional delivery. Patients were retrospectively categorised as early responders (complete or partial RECIST response after three courses) or non-early responders (late or no response). Prognostic factors were determined using multivariate logistic or Cox regression models. Response was assessed in 57 of 64 registered patients (89%), who had previously received one to three prior systemic chemotherapy protocols. An early response occurred at 6 weeks in 16 patients (28%; 9 men, 7 women), aged 33-76 years, with a median of 12 liver metastases (LMs) (2-50), involving five segments (1-8). Ten patients had a late response, and 31 patients had no response. Grade 3-4 fatigue selectively occurred in the non-early responders (0% versus 26%; p = 0.024). Early tumour response was jointly predicted by chronomodulation-odds ratio (OR): 6.0 (1.2-29.8; p = 0.029)-and LM diameter ≤57 mm-OR: 5.3 (1.1-25.0; p = 0.033). Early tumour response predicted for both R0-R1 liver resection-OR: 11.8 (1.4-100.2; p = 0.024) and overall survival-hazard ratio: 0.39 (0.17-0.88; p = 0.023) in multivariate analyses. Early tumour response on triplet HAI and systemic cetuximab predicted for complete macroscopic liver resection and prolonged survival for LM-CRC patients within a multicenter conversion-to-resection medicosurgical strategy. Confirmation is warranted for early response on HAI to guide decision making. Protocol numbers: EUDRACT 2007-004632-24 NCT00852228. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How ecology shapes exploitation: a framework to predict the behavioural response of human and animal foragers along exploration-exploitation trade-offs.

PubMed

Monk, Christopher T; Barbier, Matthieu; Romanczuk, Pawel; Watson, James R; Alós, Josep; Nakayama, Shinnosuke; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Levin, Simon A; Arlinghaus, Robert

2018-06-01

Understanding how humans and other animals behave in response to changes in their environments is vital for predicting population dynamics and the trajectory of coupled social-ecological systems. Here, we present a novel framework for identifying emergent social behaviours in foragers (including humans engaged in fishing or hunting) in predator-prey contexts based on the exploration difficulty and exploitation potential of a renewable natural resource. A qualitative framework is introduced that predicts when foragers should behave territorially, search collectively, act independently or switch among these states. To validate it, we derived quantitative predictions from two models of different structure: a generic mathematical model, and a lattice-based evolutionary model emphasising exploitation and exclusion costs. These models independently identified that the exploration difficulty and exploitation potential of the natural resource controls the social behaviour of resource exploiters. Our theoretical predictions were finally compared to a diverse set of empirical cases focusing on fisheries and aquatic organisms across a range of taxa, substantiating the framework's predictions. Understanding social behaviour for given social-ecological characteristics has important implications, particularly for the design of governance structures and regulations to move exploited systems, such as fisheries, towards sustainability. Our framework provides concrete steps in this direction. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Characterizing the Associative Content of Brain Structures Involved in Habitual and Goal-Directed Actions in Humans: A Multivariate fMRI Study

PubMed Central

Liljeholm, Mimi; Zika, Ondrej; O'Doherty, John P.

2015-01-01

While there is accumulating evidence for the existence of distinct neural systems supporting goal-directed and habitual action selection in the mammalian brain, much less is known about the nature of the information being processed in these different brain regions. Associative learning theory predicts that brain systems involved in habitual control, such as the dorsolateral striatum, should contain stimulus and response information only, but not outcome information, while regions involved in goal-directed action, such as ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and dorsomedial striatum, should be involved in processing information about outcomes as well as stimuli and responses. To test this prediction, human participants underwent fMRI while engaging in a binary choice task designed to enable the separate identification of these different representations with a multivariate classification analysis approach. Consistent with our predictions, the dorsolateral striatum contained information about responses but not outcomes at the time of an initial stimulus, while the regions implicated in goal-directed action selection contained information about both responses and outcomes. These findings suggest that differential contributions of these regions to habitual and goal-directed behavioral control may depend in part on basic differences in the type of information that these regions have access to at the time of decision making. PMID:25740507

Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction.

PubMed

Baker, Christopher M; Gordon, Ascelin; Bode, Michael

2017-04-01

Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Novak, M.; Wootton, J.T.; Doak, D.F.; Emmerson, M.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.

2011-01-01

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (??25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Improving hydrologic disaster forecasting and response for transportation by assimilating and fusing NASA and other data sets : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-15

In this 3-year project, the research team developed the Hydrologic Disaster Forecast and Response (HDFR) system, a set of integrated software tools for end users that streamlines hydrologic prediction workflows involving automated retrieval of hetero...

Predicting catastrophes of non-autonomous networks with visibility graphs and horizontal visibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Haicheng; Xu, Daolin; Wu, Yousheng

2018-05-01

Prediction of potential catastrophes in engineering systems is a challenging problem. We first attempt to construct a complex network to predict catastrophes of a multi-modular floating system in advance of their occurrences. Response time series of the system can be mapped into an virtual network by using visibility graph or horizontal visibility algorithm. The topology characteristics of the networks can be used to forecast catastrophes of the system. Numerical results show that there is an obvious corresponding relationship between the variation of topology characteristics and the onset of catastrophes. A Catastrophe Index (CI) is proposed as a numerical indicator to measure a qualitative change from a stable state to a catastrophic state. The two approaches, the visibility graph and horizontal visibility algorithms, are compared by using the index in the reliability analysis with different data lengths and sampling frequencies. The technique of virtual network method is potentially extendable to catastrophe predictions of other engineering systems.

Visual search for object categories is predicted by the representational architecture of high-level visual cortex

PubMed Central

Alvarez, George A.; Nakayama, Ken; Konkle, Talia

2016-01-01

Visual search is a ubiquitous visual behavior, and efficient search is essential for survival. Different cognitive models have explained the speed and accuracy of search based either on the dynamics of attention or on similarity of item representations. Here, we examined the extent to which performance on a visual search task can be predicted from the stable representational architecture of the visual system, independent of attentional dynamics. Participants performed a visual search task with 28 conditions reflecting different pairs of categories (e.g., searching for a face among cars, body among hammers, etc.). The time it took participants to find the target item varied as a function of category combination. In a separate group of participants, we measured the neural responses to these object categories when items were presented in isolation. Using representational similarity analysis, we then examined whether the similarity of neural responses across different subdivisions of the visual system had the requisite structure needed to predict visual search performance. Overall, we found strong brain/behavior correlations across most of the higher-level visual system, including both the ventral and dorsal pathways when considering both macroscale sectors as well as smaller mesoscale regions. These results suggest that visual search for real-world object categories is well predicted by the stable, task-independent architecture of the visual system. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Here, we ask which neural regions have neural response patterns that correlate with behavioral performance in a visual processing task. We found that the representational structure across all of high-level visual cortex has the requisite structure to predict behavior. Furthermore, when directly comparing different neural regions, we found that they all had highly similar category-level representational structures. These results point to a ubiquitous and uniform representational structure in high-level visual cortex underlying visual object processing. PMID:27832600

Modelling for Understanding AND for Prediction/Classification--The Power of Neural Networks in Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cascallar, Eduardo; Musso, Mariel; Kyndt, Eva; Dochy, Filip

2014-01-01

Two articles, Edelsbrunner and, Schneider (2013), and Nokelainen and Silander (2014) comment on Musso, Kyndt, Cascallar, and Dochy (2013). Several relevant issues are raised and some important clarifications are made in response to both commentaries. Predictive systems based on artificial neural networks continue to be the focus of current…

User-Preference-Driven Model Predictive Control of Residential Building Loads and Battery Storage for Demand Response: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Xin; Baker, Kyri A.; Christensen, Dane T.

This paper presents a user-preference-driven home energy management system (HEMS) for demand response (DR) with residential building loads and battery storage. The HEMS is based on a multi-objective model predictive control algorithm, where the objectives include energy cost, thermal comfort, and carbon emission. A multi-criterion decision making method originating from social science is used to quickly determine user preferences based on a brief survey and derive the weights of different objectives used in the optimization process. Besides the residential appliances used in the traditional DR programs, a home battery system is integrated into the HEMS to improve the flexibility andmore » reliability of the DR resources. Simulation studies have been performed on field data from a residential building stock data set. Appliance models and usage patterns were learned from the data to predict the DR resource availability. Results indicate the HEMS was able to provide a significant amount of load reduction with less than 20% prediction error in both heating and cooling cases.« less

User-Preference-Driven Model Predictive Control of Residential Building Loads and Battery Storage for Demand Response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Xin; Baker, Kyri A; Isley, Steven C

This paper presents a user-preference-driven home energy management system (HEMS) for demand response (DR) with residential building loads and battery storage. The HEMS is based on a multi-objective model predictive control algorithm, where the objectives include energy cost, thermal comfort, and carbon emission. A multi-criterion decision making method originating from social science is used to quickly determine user preferences based on a brief survey and derive the weights of different objectives used in the optimization process. Besides the residential appliances used in the traditional DR programs, a home battery system is integrated into the HEMS to improve the flexibility andmore » reliability of the DR resources. Simulation studies have been performed on field data from a residential building stock data set. Appliance models and usage patterns were learned from the data to predict the DR resource availability. Results indicate the HEMS was able to provide a significant amount of load reduction with less than 20% prediction error in both heating and cooling cases.« less

Reward Dependent Invigoration Relates to Theta Oscillations and Is Predicted by Dopaminergic Midbrain Integrity in Healthy Elderly.

PubMed

Steiger, Tineke K; Bunzeck, Nico

2017-01-01

Motivation can have invigorating effects on behavior via dopaminergic neuromodulation. While this relationship has mainly been established in theoretical models and studies in younger subjects, the impact of structural declines of the dopaminergic system during healthy aging remains unclear. To investigate this issue, we used electroencephalography (EEG) in healthy young and elderly humans in a reward-learning paradigm. Specifically, scene images were initially encoded by combining them with cues predicting monetary reward (high vs. low reward). Subsequently, recognition memory for the scenes was tested. As a main finding, we can show that response times (RTs) during encoding were faster for high reward predicting images in the young but not elderly participants. This pattern was resembled in power changes in the theta-band (4-7 Hz). Importantly, analyses of structural MRI data revealed that individual reward-related differences in the elderlies' response time could be predicted by the structural integrity of the dopaminergic substantia nigra (SN; as measured by magnetization transfer (MT)). These findings suggest a close relationship between reward-based invigoration, theta oscillations and age-dependent changes of the dopaminergic system.

Performance Comparison of Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome with Logistic Regression Models to Predict Sepsis in Neonates

PubMed Central

Thakur, Jyoti; Pahuja, Sharvan Kumar; Pahuja, Roop

2017-01-01

In 2005, an international pediatric sepsis consensus conference defined systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) for children <18 years of age, but excluded premature infants. In 2012, Hofer et al. investigated the predictive power of SIRS for term neonates. In this paper, we examined the accuracy of SIRS in predicting sepsis in neonates, irrespective of their gestational age (i.e., pre-term, term, and post-term). We also created two prediction models, named Model A and Model B, using binary logistic regression. Both models performed better than SIRS. We also developed an android application so that physicians can easily use Model A and Model B in real-world scenarios. The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR) and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) in cases of SIRS were 16.15%, 95.53%, 3.61, and 0.88, respectively, whereas they were 29.17%, 97.82%, 13.36, and 0.72, respectively, in the case of Model A, and 31.25%, 97.30%, 11.56, and 0.71, respectively, in the case of Model B. All models were significant with p < 0.001. PMID:29257099

Modeling Systems-Level Regulation of Host Immune Responses

PubMed Central

Thakar, Juilee; Pilione, Mylisa; Kirimanjeswara, Girish; Harvill, Eric T; Albert, Réka

2007-01-01

Many pathogens are able to manipulate the signaling pathways responsible for the generation of host immune responses. Here we examine and model a respiratory infection system in which disruption of host immune functions or of bacterial factors changes the dynamics of the infection. We synthesize the network of interactions between host immune components and two closely related bacteria in the genus Bordetellae. We incorporate existing experimental information on the timing of immune regulatory events into a discrete dynamic model, and verify the model by comparing the effects of simulated disruptions to the experimental outcome of knockout mutations. Our model indicates that the infection time course of both Bordetellae can be separated into three distinct phases based on the most active immune processes. We compare and discuss the effect of the species-specific virulence factors on disrupting the immune response during their infection of naive, antibody-treated, diseased, or convalescent hosts. Our model offers predictions regarding cytokine regulation, key immune components, and clearance of secondary infections; we experimentally validate two of these predictions. This type of modeling provides new insights into the virulence, pathogenesis, and host adaptation of disease-causing microorganisms and allows systems-level analysis that is not always possible using traditional methods. PMID:17559300

Extending Validated Human Performance Models to Explore NextGen Concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gore, Brian Francis; Hooey, Becky Lee; Mahlstedt, Eric; Foyle, David C.

2012-01-01

To meet the expected increases in air traffic demands, NASA and FAA are researching and developing Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concepts. NextGen will require substantial increases in the data available to pilots on the flight deck (e.g., weather,wake, traffic trajectory predictions, etc.) to support more precise and closely coordinated operations (e.g., self-separation, RNAV/RNP, and closely spaced parallel operations, CSPOs). These NextGen procedures and operations, along with the pilot's roles and responsibilities, must be designed with consideration of the pilot's capabilities and limitations. Failure to do so will leave the pilots, and thus the entire aviation system, vulnerable to error. A validated Man-machine Integration and design Analysis System (MIDAS) v5 model was extended to evaluate anticipated changes to flight deck and controller roles and responsibilities in NextGen approach and Land operations. Compared to conditions when the controllers are responsible for separation on decent to land phase of flight, the output from these model predictions suggest that the flight deck response time to detect the lead aircraft blunder will decrease, pilot scans to the navigation display will increase, and workload will increase.

Modeling the effect of shroud contact and friction dampers on the mistuned response of turbopumps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griffin, Jerry H.; Yang, M.-T.

1994-01-01

The contract has been revised. Under the revised scope of work a reduced order model has been developed that can be used to predict the steady-state response of mistuned bladed disks. The approach has been implemented in a computer code, LMCC. It is concluded that: the reduced order model displays structural fidelity comparable to that of a finite element model of an entire bladed disk system with significantly improved computational efficiency; and, when the disk is stiff, both the finite element model and LMCC predict significantly more amplitude variation than was predicted by earlier models. This second result may have important practical ramifications, especially in the case of integrally bladed disks.

Spatial Attention, Motor Intention, and Bayesian Cue Predictability in the Human Brain.

PubMed

Kuhns, Anna B; Dombert, Pascasie L; Mengotti, Paola; Fink, Gereon R; Vossel, Simone

2017-05-24

Predictions about upcoming events influence how we perceive and respond to our environment. There is increasing evidence that predictions may be generated based upon previous observations following Bayesian principles, but little is known about the underlying cortical mechanisms and their specificity for different cognitive subsystems. The present study aimed at identifying common and distinct neural signatures of predictive processing in the spatial attentional and motor intentional system. Twenty-three female and male healthy human volunteers performed two probabilistic cueing tasks with either spatial or motor cues while lying in the fMRI scanner. In these tasks, the percentage of cue validity changed unpredictably over time. Trialwise estimates of cue predictability were derived from a Bayesian observer model of behavioral responses. These estimates were included as parametric regressors for analyzing the BOLD time series. Parametric effects of cue predictability in valid and invalid trials were considered to reflect belief updating by precision-weighted prediction errors. The brain areas exhibiting predictability-dependent effects dissociated between the spatial attention and motor intention task, with the right temporoparietal cortex being involved during spatial attention and the left angular gyrus and anterior cingulate cortex during motor intention. Connectivity analyses revealed that all three areas showed predictability-dependent coupling with the right hippocampus. These results suggest that precision-weighted prediction errors of stimulus locations and motor responses are encoded in distinct brain regions, but that crosstalk with the hippocampus may be necessary to integrate new trialwise outcomes in both cognitive systems. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The brain is able to infer the environments' statistical structure and responds strongly to expectancy violations. In the spatial attentional domain, it has been shown that parts of the attentional networks are sensitive to the predictability of stimuli. It remains unknown, however, whether these effects are ubiquitous or if they are specific for different cognitive systems. The present study compared the influence of model-derived cue predictability on brain activity in the spatial attentional and motor intentional system. We identified areas with distinct predictability-dependent activation for spatial attention and motor intention, but also common connectivity changes of these regions with the hippocampus. These findings provide novel insights into the generality and specificity of predictive processing signatures in the human brain. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/375334-11$15.00/0.

From vital signs to clinical outcomes for patients with sepsis: a machine learning basis for a clinical decision support system

PubMed Central

Gultepe, Eren; Green, Jeffrey P; Nguyen, Hien; Adams, Jason; Albertson, Timothy; Tagkopoulos, Ilias

2014-01-01

Objective To develop a decision support system to identify patients at high risk for hyperlactatemia based upon routinely measured vital signs and laboratory studies. Materials and methods Electronic health records of 741 adult patients at the University of California Davis Health System who met at least two systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria were used to associate patients’ vital signs, white blood cell count (WBC), with sepsis occurrence and mortality. Generative and discriminative classification (naïve Bayes, support vector machines, Gaussian mixture models, hidden Markov models) were used to integrate heterogeneous patient data and form a predictive tool for the inference of lactate level and mortality risk. Results An accuracy of 0.99 and discriminability of 1.00 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for lactate level prediction was obtained when the vital signs and WBC measurements were analysed in a 24 h time bin. An accuracy of 0.73 and discriminability of 0.73 AUC for mortality prediction in patients with sepsis was achieved with only three features: median of lactate levels, mean arterial pressure, and median absolute deviation of the respiratory rate. Discussion This study introduces a new scheme for the prediction of lactate levels and mortality risk from patient vital signs and WBC. Accurate prediction of both these variables can drive the appropriate response by clinical staff and thus may have important implications for patient health and treatment outcome. Conclusions Effective predictions of lactate levels and mortality risk can be provided with a few clinical variables when the temporal aspect and variability of patient data are considered. PMID:23959843

Response of MDOF strongly nonlinear systems to fractional Gaussian noises.

PubMed

Deng, Mao-Lin; Zhu, Wei-Qiu

2016-08-01

In the present paper, multi-degree-of-freedom strongly nonlinear systems are modeled as quasi-Hamiltonian systems and the stochastic averaging method for quasi-Hamiltonian systems (including quasi-non-integrable, completely integrable and non-resonant, completely integrable and resonant, partially integrable and non-resonant, and partially integrable and resonant Hamiltonian systems) driven by fractional Gaussian noise is introduced. The averaged fractional stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are derived. The simulation results for some examples show that the averaged SDEs can be used to predict the response of the original systems and the simulation time for the averaged SDEs is less than that for the original systems.

Response of MDOF strongly nonlinear systems to fractional Gaussian noises

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deng, Mao-Lin; Zhu, Wei-Qiu, E-mail: wqzhu@zju.edu.cn

2016-08-15

In the present paper, multi-degree-of-freedom strongly nonlinear systems are modeled as quasi-Hamiltonian systems and the stochastic averaging method for quasi-Hamiltonian systems (including quasi-non-integrable, completely integrable and non-resonant, completely integrable and resonant, partially integrable and non-resonant, and partially integrable and resonant Hamiltonian systems) driven by fractional Gaussian noise is introduced. The averaged fractional stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are derived. The simulation results for some examples show that the averaged SDEs can be used to predict the response of the original systems and the simulation time for the averaged SDEs is less than that for the original systems.

Functional brain imaging predicts public health campaign success.

PubMed

Falk, Emily B; O'Donnell, Matthew Brook; Tompson, Steven; Gonzalez, Richard; Dal Cin, Sonya; Strecher, Victor; Cummings, Kenneth Michael; An, Lawrence

2016-02-01

Mass media can powerfully affect health decision-making. Pre-testing through focus groups or surveys is a standard, though inconsistent, predictor of effectiveness. Converging evidence demonstrates that activity within brain systems associated with self-related processing can predict individual behavior in response to health messages. Preliminary evidence also suggests that neural activity in small groups can forecast population-level campaign outcomes. Less is known about the psychological processes that link neural activity and population-level outcomes, or how these predictions are affected by message content. We exposed 50 smokers to antismoking messages and used their aggregated neural activity within a 'self-localizer' defined region of medial prefrontal cortex to predict the success of the same campaign messages at the population level (n = 400,000 emails). Results demonstrate that: (i) independently localized neural activity during health message exposure complements existing self-report data in predicting population-level campaign responses (model combined R(2) up to 0.65) and (ii) this relationship depends on message content-self-related neural processing predicts outcomes in response to strong negative arguments against smoking and not in response to compositionally similar neutral images. These data advance understanding of the psychological link between brain and large-scale behavior and may aid the construction of more effective media health campaigns. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The use of dermal fibroblasts as a predictive tool of the TLR4 response pathway and its development in Holstein heifers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The innate immune system comprises the host’s first line of defense against invading pathogens, and variation in the magnitude of this response between animals has been shown to affect susceptibility to mastitis. The toll-like receptor (TLR) family of proteins initiates the response to invading bact...

Nonlinear rotordynamics analysis. [Space Shuttle Main Engine turbopumps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noah, Sherif T.

1991-01-01

Effective analysis tools were developed for predicting the nonlinear rotordynamic behavior of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) turbopumps under steady and transient operating conditions. Using these methods, preliminary parametric studies were conducted on both generic and actual HPOTP (high pressure oxygen turbopump) models. In particular, a novel modified harmonic balance/alternating Fourier transform (HB/AFT) method was developed and used to conduct a preliminary study of the effects of fluid, bearing and seal forces on the unbalanced response of a multi-disk rotor in the presence of bearing clearances. The method makes it possible to determine periodic, sub-, super-synchronous and chaotic responses of a rotor system. The method also yields information about the stability of the obtained response, thus allowing bifurcation analyses. This provides a more effective capability for predicting the response under transient conditions by searching in proximity of resonance peaks. Preliminary results were also obtained for the nonlinear transient response of an actual HPOTP model using an efficient, newly developed numerical method based on convolution integration. Currently, the HB/AFT is being extended for determining the aperiodic response of nonlinear systems. Initial results show the method to be promising.

Landscape prediction and mapping of game fish biomass, an ecosystem service of Michigan rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esselman, Peter C.; Stevenson, R Jan; Lupi, Frank; Riseng, Catherine M.; Wiley, Michael J.

2015-01-01

The increased integration of ecosystem service concepts into natural resource management places renewed emphasis on prediction and mapping of fish biomass as a major provisioning service of rivers. The goals of this study were to predict and map patterns of fish biomass as a proxy for the availability of catchable fish for anglers in rivers and to identify the strongest landscape constraints on fish productivity. We examined hypotheses about fish responses to total phosphorus (TP), as TP is a growth-limiting nutrient known to cause increases (subsidy response) and/or decreases (stress response) in fish biomass depending on its concentration and the species being considered. Boosted regression trees were used to define nonlinear functions that predicted the standing crops of Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis, Brown Trout Salmo trutta, Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu, panfishes (seven centrarchid species), and Walleye Sander vitreus by using landscape and modeled local-scale predictors. Fitted models were highly significant and explained 22–56% of the variation in validation data sets. Nonlinear and threshold responses were apparent for numerous predictors, including TP concentration, which had significant effects on all except the Walleye fishery. Brook Trout and Smallmouth Bass exhibited both subsidy and stress responses, panfish biomass exhibited a subsidy response only, and Brown Trout exhibited a stress response. Maps of reach-specific standing crop predictions showed patterns of predicted fish biomass that corresponded to spatial patterns in catchment area, water temperature, land cover, and nutrient availability. Maps illustrated predictions of higher trout biomass in coldwater streams draining glacial till in northern Michigan, higher Smallmouth Bass and panfish biomasses in warmwater systems of southern Michigan, and high Walleye biomass in large main-stem rivers throughout the state. Our results allow fisheries managers to examine the biomass potential of streams, describe geographic patterns of fisheries, explore possible nutrient management targets, and identify habitats that are candidates for species management.

Petri Net computational modelling of Langerhans cell Interferon Regulatory Factor Network predicts their role in T cell activation.

PubMed

Polak, Marta E; Ung, Chuin Ying; Masapust, Joanna; Freeman, Tom C; Ardern-Jones, Michael R

2017-04-06

Langerhans cells (LCs) are able to orchestrate adaptive immune responses in the skin by interpreting the microenvironmental context in which they encounter foreign substances, but the regulatory basis for this has not been established. Utilising systems immunology approaches combining in silico modelling of a reconstructed gene regulatory network (GRN) with in vitro validation of the predictions, we sought to determine the mechanisms of regulation of immune responses in human primary LCs. The key role of Interferon regulatory factors (IRFs) as controllers of the human Langerhans cell response to epidermal cytokines was revealed by whole transcriptome analysis. Applying Boolean logic we assembled a Petri net-based model of the IRF-GRN which provides molecular pathway predictions for the induction of different transcriptional programmes in LCs. In silico simulations performed after model parameterisation with transcription factor expression values predicted that human LC activation of antigen-specific CD8 T cells would be differentially regulated by epidermal cytokine induction of specific IRF-controlled pathways. This was confirmed by in vitro measurement of IFN-γ production by activated T cells. As a proof of concept, this approach shows that stochastic modelling of a specific immune networks renders transcriptome data valuable for the prediction of functional outcomes of immune responses.

Efficient search, mapping, and optimization of multi-protein genetic systems in diverse bacteria

PubMed Central

Farasat, Iman; Kushwaha, Manish; Collens, Jason; Easterbrook, Michael; Guido, Matthew; Salis, Howard M

2014-01-01

Developing predictive models of multi-protein genetic systems to understand and optimize their behavior remains a combinatorial challenge, particularly when measurement throughput is limited. We developed a computational approach to build predictive models and identify optimal sequences and expression levels, while circumventing combinatorial explosion. Maximally informative genetic system variants were first designed by the RBS Library Calculator, an algorithm to design sequences for efficiently searching a multi-protein expression space across a > 10,000-fold range with tailored search parameters and well-predicted translation rates. We validated the algorithm's predictions by characterizing 646 genetic system variants, encoded in plasmids and genomes, expressed in six gram-positive and gram-negative bacterial hosts. We then combined the search algorithm with system-level kinetic modeling, requiring the construction and characterization of 73 variants to build a sequence-expression-activity map (SEAMAP) for a biosynthesis pathway. Using model predictions, we designed and characterized 47 additional pathway variants to navigate its activity space, find optimal expression regions with desired activity response curves, and relieve rate-limiting steps in metabolism. Creating sequence-expression-activity maps accelerates the optimization of many protein systems and allows previous measurements to quantitatively inform future designs. PMID:24952589

Adaptive Patterns of Stress Responsivity: A Preliminary Investigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Del Giudice, Marco; Hinnant, J. Benjamin; Ellis, Bruce J.; El-Sheikh, Mona

2012-01-01

The adaptive calibration model (ACM) is an evolutionary-developmental theory of individual differences in stress responsivity. In this article, we tested some key predictions of the ACM in a middle childhood sample (N = 256). Measures of autonomic nervous system activity across the sympathetic and parasympathetic branches validated the 4-pattern…

Implementation of a weather responsive traffic estimation and prediction system (TrEPS) for signal timing at Utah DOT.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-07-01

The overall goal of this project is to integrate and operationalize weather-sensitive TrEPS models calibrated for the Salt Lake City region to support weather-responsive traffic signal timing implementation and evaluation in the Riverdale corridor in...

Therapygenetics: 5-HTTLPR genotype predicts the response to exposure therapy for agoraphobia.

PubMed

Knuts, Inge; Esquivel, Gabriel; Kenis, Gunter; Overbeek, Thea; Leibold, Nicole; Goossens, Lies; Schruers, Koen

2014-08-01

This study was intended to assess the extent to which the low-expression allele of the serotonin transporter gene promoter predicts better response to exposure-based behavior therapy in patients with panic disorder with agoraphobia (PDA). Ninety-nine patients with PDA underwent a 1-week in vivo exposure-based behavior therapy program and provided saliva samples to extract genomic DNA and classify individuals according to four allelic forms (SA, SG, LA, LG) of the 5-HTT-linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR). We determined whether the 5-HTTLPR genotype predicted change in avoidance behavior in PDA following treatment. After controlling for pre-treatment avoidance behavior, the 5-HTTLPR low-expression genotypes showed a more favorable response to exposure therapy two weeks following treatment, compared to the other patients. This study suggests a genetic contribution to treatment outcome following behavior therapy and implicates the serotonergic system in response to exposure-based treatments in PDA. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

Qualitative radiology assessment of tumor response: does it measure up?

PubMed

Gottlieb, Ronald H; Litwin, Alan; Gupta, Bhavna; Taylor, John; Raczyk, Cheryl; Mashtare, Terry; Wilding, Gregory; Fakih, Marwan

2008-01-01

Our purpose was to assess whether a simpler qualitative evaluation of tumor response by computed tomography is as reproducible and predictive of clinical outcome as the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) and World Health Organization (WHO) methods. This study was a two-reader retrospective evaluation in which qualitative assessment resulted in agreement in 21 of 23 patients with metastatic colorectal carcinoma (91.3%, kappa=0.78; 95% CI, 0.51-1.00). Hepatic metastases were classified as increased, decreased, or unchanged, compared with agreement in 20 of 23 patients (87.0%) for RECIST (kappa=0.62; 95% CI, 0.23-1.00) and WHO (kappa=0.67; 95% CI, 0.34-1.00) methods. Patients were placed into partial response, stable disease, and disease progression categories. Time to progression of disease was better predicted qualitatively than by RECIST or WHO. Our pilot data suggest that our qualitative scoring system is more reproducible and predictive of patient clinical outcome than the RECIST and WHO methods.

Constant-Time Pattern Matching For Real-Time Production Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parson, Dale E.; Blank, Glenn D.

1989-03-01

Many intelligent systems must respond to sensory data or critical environmental conditions in fixed, predictable time. Rule-based systems, including those based on the efficient Rete matching algorithm, cannot guarantee this result. Improvement in execution-time efficiency is not all that is needed here; it is important to ensure constant, 0(1) time limits for portions of the matching process. Our approach is inspired by two observations about human performance. First, cognitive psychologists distinguish between automatic and controlled processing. Analogously, we partition the matching process across two networks. The first is the automatic partition; it is characterized by predictable 0(1) time and space complexity, lack of persistent memory, and is reactive in nature. The second is the controlled partition; it includes the search-based goal-driven and data-driven processing typical of most production system programming. The former is responsible for recognition and response to critical environmental conditions. The latter is responsible for the more flexible problem-solving behaviors consistent with the notion of intelligence. Support for learning and refining the automatic partition can be placed in the controlled partition. Our second observation is that people are able to attend to more critical stimuli or requirements selectively. Our match algorithm uses priorities to focus matching. It compares priority of information during matching, rather than deferring this comparison until conflict resolution. Messages from the automatic partition are able to interrupt the controlled partition, enhancing system responsiveness. Our algorithm has numerous applications for systems that must exhibit time-constrained behavior.

New Nuclear Emergency Prognosis system in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyun-Ha; Jeong, Seung-Young; Park, Sang-Hyun; Lee, Kwan-Hee

2016-04-01

This paper reviews the status of assessment and prognosis system for nuclear emergency response in Korea, especially atmospheric dispersion model. The Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) performs the regulation and radiological emergency preparedness of the nuclear facilities and radiation utilizations. Also, KINS has set up the "Radiological Emergency Technical Advisory Plan" and the associated procedures such as an emergency response manual in consideration of the IAEA Safety Standards GS-R-2, GS-G-2.0, and GS-G-2.1. The Radiological Emergency Technical Advisory Center (RETAC) organized in an emergency situation provides the technical advice on radiological emergency response. The "Atomic Computerized Technical Advisory System for nuclear emergency" (AtomCARE) has been developed to implement assessment and prognosis by RETAC. KINS developed Accident Dose Assessment and Monitoring (ADAMO) system in 2015 to reflect the lessons learned from Fukushima accident. It incorporates (1) the dose assessment on the entire Korean peninsula, Asia region, and global region, (2) multi-units accident assessment (3) applying new methodology of dose rate assessment and the source term estimation with inverse modeling, (4) dose assessment and monitoring with the environmental measurements result. The ADAMO is the renovated version of current FADAS of AtomCARE. The ADAMO increases the accuracy of the radioactive material dispersion with applying the LDAPS(Local Data Assimilation Prediction System, Spatial resolution: 1.5 km) and RDAPS(Regional Data Assimilation Prediction System, Spatial resolution: 12km) of weather prediction data, and performing the data assimilation of automatic weather system (AWS) data from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and data from the weather observation tower at NPP site. The prediction model of the radiological material dispersion is based on the set of the Lagrangian Particle model and Lagrangian Puff model. The dose estimation methodology incorporate the dose assessment methods of IAEA, WHO, and USNRC. The dose assessment result will express on the GIS (GIS (Geographic Information System) to provide to the local- governments and the central government. Acknowledgements This research has been supported by the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission [Reference No.1305020-0315-SB110

Apoptosis and other immune biomarkers predict influenza vaccine responsiveness.

PubMed

Furman, David; Jojic, Vladimir; Kidd, Brian; Shen-Orr, Shai; Price, Jordan; Jarrell, Justin; Tse, Tiffany; Huang, Huang; Lund, Peder; Maecker, Holden T; Utz, Paul J; Dekker, Cornelia L; Koller, Daphne; Davis, Mark M

2013-04-16

Despite the importance of the immune system in many diseases, there are currently no objective benchmarks of immunological health. In an effort to identifying such markers, we used influenza vaccination in 30 young (20-30 years) and 59 older subjects (60 to >89 years) as models for strong and weak immune responses, respectively, and assayed their serological responses to influenza strains as well as a wide variety of other parameters, including gene expression, antibodies to hemagglutinin peptides, serum cytokines, cell subset phenotypes and in vitro cytokine stimulation. Using machine learning, we identified nine variables that predict the antibody response with 84% accuracy. Two of these variables are involved in apoptosis, which positively associated with the response to vaccination and was confirmed to be a contributor to vaccine responsiveness in mice. The identification of these biomarkers provides new insights into what immune features may be most important for immune health.

Motivational indicators of protective behaviour in response to urban water shortage threat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankad, Aditi; Greenhill, Murni; Tucker, David; Tapsuwan, Sorada

2013-05-01

The present study examined the role of protection motivation variables in predicting rainwater tank adoption among urban householders. A regression analysis found that subjective knowledge, threat appraisal, response efficacy, response costs, subjective norms and social norms significantly predicted adaptive behavioural intentions (F(6, 399) = 50.769, p < .001, Cohen's f2 = .763). The model accounted for 43% of the variance in intentions to install a rainwater tank as a protective measure against future water shortages. Results further indicated that several variables uniquely contributed to the prediction of rainwater tank adoption (listed in order of relative contribution: response efficacy, threat appraisal, response costs, subjective knowledge and subjective norms). This suggests that people who perceive there is a real water shortage threat, and believe that rainwater tanks are effective in relieving the threat and require minimal or manageable effort to obtain, are more likely to install a tank on their property as a protective measure. Implications of these results are discussed from a research and policy perspective. Recommendations for future motivational research in the area of urban decentralised system acceptance and adoption are presented.

A Systems Perspective on Responses to Climate Change

EPA Science Inventory

The science of climate change integrates many scientific fields to explain and predict the complex effects of greenhouse gas concentrations on the planet’s energy balance, weather patterns, and ecosystems as well as economic and social systems. A changing climate requires respons...

Predictive Software Cost Model Study. Volume I. Final Technical Report.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-06-01

development phase to identify computer resources necessary to support computer programs after transfer of program manangement responsibility and system... classical model development with refinements specifically applicable to avionics systems. The refinements are the result of the Phase I literature search

Modeling the vestibulo-ocular reflex of the squirrel monkey during eccentric rotation and roll tilt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merfeld, D. M.; Paloski, W. H. (Principal Investigator)

1995-01-01

Model simulations of the squirrel monkey vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) are presented for two motion paradigms: constant velocity eccentric rotation and roll tilt about a naso-occipital axis. The model represents the implementation of three hypotheses: the "internal model" hypothesis, the "gravito-inertial force (GIF) resolution" hypothesis, and the "compensatory VOR" hypothesis. The internal model hypothesis is based on the idea that the nervous system knows the dynamics of the sensory systems and implements this knowledge as an internal dynamic model. The GIF resolution hypothesis is based on the idea that the nervous system knows that gravity minus linear acceleration equals GIF and implements this knowledge by resolving the otolith measurement of GIF into central estimates of gravity and linear acceleration, such that the central estimate of gravity minus the central estimate of acceleration equals the otolith measurement of GIF. The compensatory VOR hypothesis is based on the idea that the VOR compensates for the central estimates of angular velocity and linear velocity, which sum in a near-linear manner. During constant velocity eccentric rotation, the model correctly predicts that: (1) the peak horizontal response is greater while "facing-motion" than with "back-to-motion"; (2) the axis of eye rotation shifts toward alignment with GIF; and (3) a continuous vertical response, slow phase downward, exists prior to deceleration. The model also correctly predicts that a torsional response during the roll rotation is the only velocity response observed during roll rotations about a naso-occipital axis. The success of this model in predicting the observed experimental responses suggests that the model captures the essence of the complex sensory interactions engendered by eccentric rotation and roll tilt.

Proposed Use of the NASA Ames Nebula Cloud Computing Platform for Numerical Weather Prediction and the Distribution of High Resolution Satellite Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Limaye, Ashutosh S.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Srikishen, Jayanthi

2010-01-01

The development of the Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at NASA Ames Research Center provides an open-source solution for the deployment of scalable computing and storage capabilities relevant to the execution of real-time weather forecasts and the distribution of high resolution satellite data to the operational weather community. Two projects at Marshall Space Flight Center may benefit from use of the Nebula system. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center facilitates the use of unique NASA satellite data and research capabilities in the operational weather community by providing datasets relevant to numerical weather prediction, and satellite data sets useful in weather analysis. SERVIR provides satellite data products for decision support, emphasizing environmental threats such as wildfires, floods, landslides, and other hazards, with interests in numerical weather prediction in support of disaster response. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model Environmental Modeling System (WRF-EMS) has been configured for Nebula cloud computing use via the creation of a disk image and deployment of repeated instances. Given the available infrastructure within Nebula and the "infrastructure as a service" concept, the system appears well-suited for the rapid deployment of additional forecast models over different domains, in response to real-time research applications or disaster response. Future investigations into Nebula capabilities will focus on the development of a web mapping server and load balancing configuration to support the distribution of high resolution satellite data sets to users within the National Weather Service and international partners of SERVIR.

Analyzing System on A Chip Single Event Upset Responses using Single Event Upset Data, Classical Reliability Models, and Space Environment Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, Melanie; LaBel, Kenneth; Campola, Michael; Xapsos, Michael

2017-01-01

We are investigating the application of classical reliability performance metrics combined with standard single event upset (SEU) analysis data. We expect to relate SEU behavior to system performance requirements. Our proposed methodology will provide better prediction of SEU responses in harsh radiation environments with confidence metrics. single event upset (SEU), single event effect (SEE), field programmable gate array devises (FPGAs)

Modeling the control of the central nervous system over the cardiovascular system using support vector machines.

PubMed

Díaz, José; Acosta, Jesús; González, Rafael; Cota, Juan; Sifuentes, Ernesto; Nebot, Àngela

2018-02-01

The control of the central nervous system (CNS) over the cardiovascular system (CS) has been modeled using different techniques, such as fuzzy inductive reasoning, genetic fuzzy systems, neural networks, and nonlinear autoregressive techniques; the results obtained so far have been significant, but not solid enough to describe the control response of the CNS over the CS. In this research, support vector machines (SVMs) are used to predict the response of a branch of the CNS, specifically, the one that controls an important part of the cardiovascular system. To do this, five models are developed to emulate the output response of five controllers for the same input signal, the carotid sinus blood pressure (CSBP). These controllers regulate parameters such as heart rate, myocardial contractility, peripheral and coronary resistance, and venous tone. The models are trained using a known set of input-output response in each controller; also, there is a set of six input-output signals for testing each proposed model. The input signals are processed using an all-pass filter, and the accuracy performance of the control models is evaluated using the percentage value of the normalized mean square error (MSE). Experimental results reveal that SVM models achieve a better estimation of the dynamical behavior of the CNS control compared to others modeling systems. The main results obtained show that the best case is for the peripheral resistance controller, with a MSE of 1.20e-4%, while the worst case is for the heart rate controller, with a MSE of 1.80e-3%. These novel models show a great reliability in fitting the output response of the CNS which can be used as an input to the hemodynamic system models in order to predict the behavior of the heart and blood vessels in response to blood pressure variations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive Coding in Area V4: Dynamic Shape Discrimination under Partial Occlusion

PubMed Central

Choi, Hannah; Pasupathy, Anitha; Shea-Brown, Eric

2018-01-01

The primate visual system has an exquisite ability to discriminate partially occluded shapes. Recent electrophysiological recordings suggest that response dynamics in intermediate visual cortical area V4, shaped by feedback from prefrontal cortex (PFC), may play a key role. To probe the algorithms that may underlie these findings, we build and test a model of V4 and PFC interactions based on a hierarchical predictive coding framework. We propose that probabilistic inference occurs in two steps. Initially, V4 responses are driven solely by bottom-up sensory input and are thus strongly influenced by the level of occlusion. After a delay, V4 responses combine both feedforward input and feedback signals from the PFC; the latter reflect predictions made by PFC about the visual stimulus underlying V4 activity. We find that this model captures key features of V4 and PFC dynamics observed in experiments. Specifically, PFC responses are strongest for occluded stimuli and delayed responses in V4 are less sensitive to occlusion, supporting our hypothesis that the feedback signals from PFC underlie robust discrimination of occluded shapes. Thus, our study proposes that area V4 and PFC participate in hierarchical inference, with feedback signals encoding top-down predictions about occluded shapes. PMID:29566355

Linearized blade row compression component model. Stability and frequency response analysis of a J85-3 compressor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tesch, W. A.; Moszee, R. H.; Steenken, W. G.

1976-01-01

NASA developed stability and frequency response analysis techniques were applied to a dynamic blade row compression component stability model to provide a more economic approach to surge line and frequency response determination than that provided by time-dependent methods. This blade row model was linearized and the Jacobian matrix was formed. The clean-inlet-flow stability characteristics of the compressors of two J85-13 engines were predicted by applying the alternate Routh-Hurwitz stability criterion to the Jacobian matrix. The predicted surge line agreed with the clean-inlet-flow surge line predicted by the time-dependent method to a high degree except for one engine at 94% corrected speed. No satisfactory explanation of this discrepancy was found. The frequency response of the linearized system was determined by evaluating its Laplace transfer function. The results of the linearized-frequency-response analysis agree with the time-dependent results when the time-dependent inlet total-pressure and exit-flow function amplitude boundary conditions are less than 1 percent and 3 percent, respectively. The stability analysis technique was extended to a two-sector parallel compressor model with and without interstage crossflow and predictions were carried out for total-pressure distortion extents of 180 deg, 90 deg, 60 deg, and 30 deg.

Improved darunavir genotypic mutation score predicting treatment response for patients infected with HIV-1 subtype B and non-subtype B receiving a salvage regimen.

PubMed

De Luca, Andrea; Flandre, Philippe; Dunn, David; Zazzi, Maurizio; Wensing, Annemarie; Santoro, Maria Mercedes; Günthard, Huldrych F; Wittkop, Linda; Kordossis, Theodoros; Garcia, Federico; Castagna, Antonella; Cozzi-Lepri, Alessandro; Churchill, Duncan; De Wit, Stéphane; Brockmeyer, Norbert H; Imaz, Arkaitz; Mussini, Cristina; Obel, Niels; Perno, Carlo Federico; Roca, Bernardino; Reiss, Peter; Schülter, Eugen; Torti, Carlo; van Sighem, Ard; Zangerle, Robert; Descamps, Diane

2016-05-01

The objective of this study was to improve the prediction of the impact of HIV-1 protease mutations in different viral subtypes on virological response to darunavir. Darunavir-containing treatment change episodes (TCEs) in patients previously failing PIs were selected from large European databases. HIV-1 subtype B-infected patients were used as the derivation dataset and HIV-1 non-B-infected patients were used as the validation dataset. The adjusted association of each mutation with week 8 HIV RNA change from baseline was analysed by linear regression. A prediction model was derived based on best subset least squares estimation with mutational weights corresponding to regression coefficients. Virological outcome prediction accuracy was compared with that from existing genotypic resistance interpretation systems (GISs) (ANRS 2013, Rega 9.1.0 and HIVdb 7.0). TCEs were selected from 681 subtype B-infected and 199 non-B-infected adults. Accompanying drugs were NRTIs in 87%, NNRTIs in 27% and raltegravir or maraviroc or enfuvirtide in 53%. The prediction model included weighted protease mutations, HIV RNA, CD4 and activity of accompanying drugs. The model's association with week 8 HIV RNA change in the subtype B (derivation) set was R(2) = 0.47 [average squared error (ASE) = 0.67, P < 10(-6)]; in the non-B (validation) set, ASE was 0.91. Accuracy investigated by means of area under the receiver operating characteristic curves with a binary response (above the threshold value of HIV RNA reduction) showed that our final model outperformed models with existing interpretation systems in both training and validation sets. A model with a new darunavir-weighted mutation score outperformed existing GISs in both B and non-B subtypes in predicting virological response to darunavir. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A Channel Network Evolution Model with Subsurface Saturation Mechanism and Analysis of the Chaotic Behavior of the Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-09-01

between basin shapes and hydrologic responses is fundamental for the purpose of hydrologic predictions , especially in ungaged basins. Another goal is...47] studied this model and showed analitically how very small differences in the c field generated completely different leaf vein network structures... predictability impossible. Complexity is by no means a requirement in order for a system to exhibit SIC. A system as simple as the logistic equation x,,,,=ax,,(l

Predictive Coding: A Possible Explanation of Filling-In at the Blind Spot

PubMed Central

Raman, Rajani; Sarkar, Sandip

2016-01-01

Filling-in at the blind spot is a perceptual phenomenon in which the visual system fills the informational void, which arises due to the absence of retinal input corresponding to the optic disc, with surrounding visual attributes. It is known that during filling-in, nonlinear neural responses are observed in the early visual area that correlates with the perception, but the knowledge of underlying neural mechanism for filling-in at the blind spot is far from complete. In this work, we attempted to present a fresh perspective on the computational mechanism of filling-in process in the framework of hierarchical predictive coding, which provides a functional explanation for a range of neural responses in the cortex. We simulated a three-level hierarchical network and observe its response while stimulating the network with different bar stimulus across the blind spot. We find that the predictive-estimator neurons that represent blind spot in primary visual cortex exhibit elevated non-linear response when the bar stimulated both sides of the blind spot. Using generative model, we also show that these responses represent the filling-in completion. All these results are consistent with the finding of psychophysical and physiological studies. In this study, we also demonstrate that the tolerance in filling-in qualitatively matches with the experimental findings related to non-aligned bars. We discuss this phenomenon in the predictive coding paradigm and show that all our results could be explained by taking into account the efficient coding of natural images along with feedback and feed-forward connections that allow priors and predictions to co-evolve to arrive at the best prediction. These results suggest that the filling-in process could be a manifestation of the general computational principle of hierarchical predictive coding of natural images. PMID:26959812

A model of olfactory associative learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavoni, Gaia; Balasubramanian, Vijay

We propose a mechanism, rooted in the known anatomy and physiology of the vertebrate olfactory system, by which presentations of rewarded and unrewarded odors lead to formation of odor-valence associations between piriform cortex (PC) and anterior olfactory nucleus (AON) which, in concert with neuromodulators release in the bulb, entrains a direct feedback from the AON representation of valence to a group of mitral cells (MCs). The model makes several predictions concerning MC activity during and after associative learning: (a) AON feedback produces synchronous divergent responses in a localized subset of MCs; (b) such divergence propagates to other MCs by lateral inhibition; (c) after learning, MC responses reconverge; (d) recall of the newly formed associations in the PC increases feedback inhibition in the MCs. These predictions have been confirmed in disparate experiments which we now explain in a unified framework. For cortex, our model further predicts that the response divergence developed during learning reshapes odor representations in the PC, with the effects of (a) decorrelating PC representations of odors with different valences, (b) increasing the size and reliability of those representations, and enabling recall correction and redundancy reduction after learning. Simons Foundation for Mathematical Modeling of Living Systems.

Vestibulospinal adaptation to microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paloski, W. H.

1998-01-01

Human balance control is known to be transiently disrupted after spaceflight; however, the mechanisms responsible for postflight postural ataxia are still under investigation. In this report, we propose a conceptual model of vestibulospinal adaptation based on theoretical adaptive control concepts and supported by the results from a comprehensive study of balance control recovery after spaceflight. The conceptual model predicts that immediately after spaceflight the balance control system of a returning astronaut does not expect to receive gravity-induced afferent inputs and that descending vestibulospinal control of balance is disrupted until the central nervous system is able to cope with the newly available vestibular otolith information. Predictions of the model are tested using data from a study of the neurosensory control of balance in astronauts immediately after landing. In that study, the mechanisms of sensorimotor balance control were assessed under normal, reduced, and/or altered (sway-referenced) visual and somatosensory input conditions. We conclude that the adaptive control model accurately describes the neurobehavioral responses to spaceflight and that similar models of altered sensory, motor, or environmental constraints are needed clinically to predict responses that patients with sensorimotor pathologies may have to various visual-vestibular or changing stimulus environments.

The perceptual shaping of anticipatory actions.

PubMed

Maffei, Giovanni; Herreros, Ivan; Sanchez-Fibla, Marti; Friston, Karl J; Verschure, Paul F M J

2017-12-20

Humans display anticipatory motor responses to minimize the adverse effects of predictable perturbations. A widely accepted explanation for this behaviour relies on the notion of an inverse model that, learning from motor errors, anticipates corrective responses. Here, we propose and validate the alternative hypothesis that anticipatory control can be realized through a cascade of purely sensory predictions that drive the motor system, reflecting the causal sequence of the perceptual events preceding the error. We compare both hypotheses in a simulated anticipatory postural adjustment task. We observe that adaptation in the sensory domain, but not in the motor one, supports the robust and generalizable anticipatory control characteristic of biological systems. Our proposal unites the neurobiology of the cerebellum with the theory of active inference and provides a concrete implementation of its core tenets with great relevance both to our understanding of biological control systems and, possibly, to their emulation in complex artefacts. © 2017 The Author(s).

Next-Generation Pathology.

PubMed

Caie, Peter D; Harrison, David J

2016-01-01

The field of pathology is rapidly transforming from a semiquantitative and empirical science toward a big data discipline. Large data sets from across multiple omics fields may now be extracted from a patient's tissue sample. Tissue is, however, complex, heterogeneous, and prone to artifact. A reductionist view of tissue and disease progression, which does not take this complexity into account, may lead to single biomarkers failing in clinical trials. The integration of standardized multi-omics big data and the retention of valuable information on spatial heterogeneity are imperative to model complex disease mechanisms. Mathematical modeling through systems pathology approaches is the ideal medium to distill the significant information from these large, multi-parametric, and hierarchical data sets. Systems pathology may also predict the dynamical response of disease progression or response to therapy regimens from a static tissue sample. Next-generation pathology will incorporate big data with systems medicine in order to personalize clinical practice for both prognostic and predictive patient care.

Analytical modeling of intumescent coating thermal protection system in a JP-5 fuel fire environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, K. J.; Shimizu, A. B.; Suchsland, K. E.; Moyer, C. B.

1974-01-01

The thermochemical response of Coating 313 when exposed to a fuel fire environment was studied to provide a tool for predicting the reaction time. The existing Aerotherm Charring Material Thermal Response and Ablation (CMA) computer program was modified to treat swelling materials. The modified code is now designated Aerotherm Transient Response of Intumescing Materials (TRIM) code. In addition, thermophysical property data for Coating 313 were analyzed and reduced for use in the TRIM code. An input data sensitivity study was performed, and performance tests of Coating 313/steel substrate models were carried out. The end product is a reliable computational model, the TRIM code, which was thoroughly validated for Coating 313. The tasks reported include: generation of input data, development of swell model and implementation in TRIM code, sensitivity study, acquisition of experimental data, comparisons of predictions with data, and predictions with intermediate insulation.

Predicting the practice effects on the blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) function of fMRI in a symbolic manipulation task

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Yulin; Sohn, Myeong-Ho; Anderson, John R.; Stenger, V. Andrew; Fissell, Kate; Goode, Adam; Carter, Cameron S.

2003-04-01

Based on adaptive control of thought-rational (ACT-R), a cognitive architecture for cognitive modeling, researchers have developed an information-processing model to predict the blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) response of functional MRI in symbol manipulation tasks. As an extension of this research, the current event-related functional MRI study investigates the effect of relatively extensive practice on the activation patterns of related brain regions. The task involved performing transformations on equations in an artificial algebra system. This paper shows that the base-level activation learning in the ACT-R theory can predict the change of the BOLD response in practice in a left prefrontal region reflecting retrieval of information. In contrast, practice has relatively little effect on the form of BOLD response in the parietal region reflecting imagined transformations to the equation or the motor region reflecting manual programming.

The habenula encodes negative motivational value associated with primary punishment in humans.

PubMed

Lawson, Rebecca P; Seymour, Ben; Loh, Eleanor; Lutti, Antoine; Dolan, Raymond J; Dayan, Peter; Weiskopf, Nikolaus; Roiser, Jonathan P

2014-08-12

Learning what to approach, and what to avoid, involves assigning value to environmental cues that predict positive and negative events. Studies in animals indicate that the lateral habenula encodes the previously learned negative motivational value of stimuli. However, involvement of the habenula in dynamic trial-by-trial aversive learning has not been assessed, and the functional role of this structure in humans remains poorly characterized, in part, due to its small size. Using high-resolution functional neuroimaging and computational modeling of reinforcement learning, we demonstrate positive habenula responses to the dynamically changing values of cues signaling painful electric shocks, which predict behavioral suppression of responses to those cues across individuals. By contrast, negative habenula responses to monetary reward cue values predict behavioral invigoration. Our findings show that the habenula plays a key role in an online aversive learning system and in generating associated motivated behavior in humans.

AAA gunnermodel based on observer theory. [predicting a gunner's tracking response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kou, R. S.; Glass, B. C.; Day, C. N.; Vikmanis, M. M.

1978-01-01

The Luenberger observer theory is used to develop a predictive model of a gunner's tracking response in antiaircraft artillery systems. This model is composed of an observer, a feedback controller and a remnant element. An important feature of the model is that the structure is simple, hence a computer simulation requires only a short execution time. A parameter identification program based on the least squares curve fitting method and the Gauss Newton gradient algorithm is developed to determine the parameter values of the gunner model. Thus, a systematic procedure exists for identifying model parameters for a given antiaircraft tracking task. Model predictions of tracking errors are compared with human tracking data obtained from manned simulation experiments. Model predictions are in excellent agreement with the empirical data for several flyby and maneuvering target trajectories.

Develop a Systems Approach to Characterizing and Predicting Thyroid Toxicity using an Amphibian Model

EPA Science Inventory

This research makes use of in vitro and in vivo approaches to understand and discriminate the compensatory and toxicological responses of the highly regulated HPT system. Development of an initial systems model will be based on the current understanding of the HPT axis and the co...

Sea surface temperature predictions using a multi-ocean analysis ensemble scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying; Zhu, Jieshun; Li, Zhongxian; Chen, Haishan; Zeng, Gang

2017-08-01

This study examined the global sea surface temperature (SST) predictions by a so-called multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization method which was applied in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). Different from most operational climate prediction practices which are initialized by a specific ocean analysis system, the MAE method is based on multiple ocean analyses. In the paper, the MAE method was first justified by analyzing the ocean temperature variability in four ocean analyses which all are/were applied for operational climate predictions either at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts or at NCEP. It was found that these systems exhibit substantial uncertainties in estimating the ocean states, especially at the deep layers. Further, a set of MAE hindcasts was conducted based on the four ocean analyses with CFSv2, starting from each April during 1982-2007. The MAE hindcasts were verified against a subset of hindcasts from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) Project. Comparisons suggested that MAE shows better SST predictions than CFSRR over most regions where ocean dynamics plays a vital role in SST evolutions, such as the El Niño and Atlantic Niño regions. Furthermore, significant improvements were also found in summer precipitation predictions over the equatorial eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, for which the local SST prediction improvements should be responsible. The prediction improvements by MAE imply a problem for most current climate predictions which are based on a specific ocean analysis system. That is, their predictions would drift towards states biased by errors inherent in their ocean initialization system, and thus have large prediction errors. In contrast, MAE arguably has an advantage by sampling such structural uncertainties, and could efficiently cancel these errors out in their predictions.

Dynamic Modeling of Solar Dynamic Components and Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hochstein, John I.; Korakianitis, T.

1992-01-01

The purpose of this grant was to support NASA in modeling efforts to predict the transient dynamic and thermodynamic response of the space station solar dynamic power generation system. In order to meet the initial schedule requirement of providing results in time to support installation of the system as part of the initial phase of space station, early efforts were executed with alacrity and often in parallel. Initially, methods to predict the transient response of a Rankine as well as a Brayton cycle were developed. Review of preliminary design concepts led NASA to select a regenerative gas-turbine cycle using a helium-xenon mixture as the working fluid and, from that point forward, the modeling effort focused exclusively on that system. Although initial project planning called for a three year period of performance, revised NASA schedules moved system installation to later and later phases of station deployment. Eventually, NASA selected to halt development of the solar dynamic power generation system for space station and to reduce support for this project to two-thirds of the original level.

Quantifying effectiveness of failure prediction and response in HPC systems : methodology and example.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mayo, Jackson R.; Chen, Frank Xiaoxiao; Pebay, Philippe Pierre

2010-06-01

Effective failure prediction and mitigation strategies in high-performance computing systems could provide huge gains in resilience of tightly coupled large-scale scientific codes. These gains would come from prediction-directed process migration and resource servicing, intelligent resource allocation, and checkpointing driven by failure predictors rather than at regular intervals based on nominal mean time to failure. Given probabilistic associations of outlier behavior in hardware-related metrics with eventual failure in hardware, system software, and/or applications, this paper explores approaches for quantifying the effects of prediction and mitigation strategies and demonstrates these using actual production system data. We describe context-relevant methodologies for determining themore » accuracy and cost-benefit of predictors. While many research studies have quantified the expected impact of growing system size, and the associated shortened mean time to failure (MTTF), on application performance in large-scale high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, there has been little if any work to quantify the possible gains from predicting system resource failures with significant but imperfect accuracy. This possibly stems from HPC system complexity and the fact that, to date, no one has established any good predictors of failure in these systems. Our work in the OVIS project aims to discover these predictors via a variety of data collection techniques and statistical analysis methods that yield probabilistic predictions. The question then is, 'How good or useful are these predictions?' We investigate methods for answering this question in a general setting, and illustrate them using a specific failure predictor discovered on a production system at Sandia.« less

Hydroelastic response of a floating runway to cnoidal waves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ertekin, R. C., E-mail: ertekin@hawaii.edu; Xia, Dingwu

2014-02-15

The hydroelastic response of mat-type Very Large Floating Structures (VLFSs) to severe sea conditions, such as tsunamis and hurricanes, must be assessed for safety and survivability. An efficient and robust nonlinear hydroelastic model is required to predict accurately the motion of and the dynamic loads on a VLFS due to such large waves. We develop a nonlinear theory to predict the hydroelastic response of a VLFS in the presence of cnoidal waves and compare the predictions with the linear theory that is also developed here. This hydroelastic problem is formulated by directly coupling the structure with the fluid, by usemore » of the Level I Green-Naghdi theory for the fluid motion and the Kirchhoff thin plate theory for the runway. The coupled fluid structure system, together with the appropriate jump conditions are solved in two-dimensions by the finite-difference method. The numerical model is used to study the nonlinear response of a VLFS to storm waves which are modeled by use of the cnoidal-wave theory. Parametric studies show that the nonlinearity of the waves is very important in accurately predicting the dynamic bending moment and wave run-up on a VLFS in high seas.« less

Predictive optimized adaptive PSS in a single machine infinite bus.

PubMed

Milla, Freddy; Duarte-Mermoud, Manuel A

2016-07-01

Power System Stabilizer (PSS) devices are responsible for providing a damping torque component to generators for reducing fluctuations in the system caused by small perturbations. A Predictive Optimized Adaptive PSS (POA-PSS) to improve the oscillations in a Single Machine Infinite Bus (SMIB) power system is discussed in this paper. POA-PSS provides the optimal design parameters for the classic PSS using an optimization predictive algorithm, which adapts to changes in the inputs of the system. This approach is part of small signal stability analysis, which uses equations in an incremental form around an operating point. Simulation studies on the SMIB power system illustrate that the proposed POA-PSS approach has better performance than the classical PSS. In addition, the effort in the control action of the POA-PSS is much less than that of other approaches considered for comparison. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Striatal GABA-MRS predicts response inhibition performance and its cortical electrophysiological correlates.

PubMed

Quetscher, Clara; Yildiz, Ali; Dharmadhikari, Shalmali; Glaubitz, Benjamin; Schmidt-Wilcke, Tobias; Dydak, Ulrike; Beste, Christian

2015-11-01

Response inhibition processes are important for performance monitoring and are mediated via a network constituted by different cortical areas and basal ganglia nuclei. At the basal ganglia level, striatal GABAergic medium spiny neurons are known to be important for response selection, but the importance of the striatal GABAergic system for response inhibition processes remains elusive. Using a novel combination of behavior al, EEG and magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) data, we examine the relevance of the striatal GABAergic system for response inhibition processes. The study shows that striatal GABA levels modulate the efficacy of response inhibition processes. Higher striatal GABA levels were related to better response inhibition performance. We show that striatal GABA modulate specific subprocesses of response inhibition related to pre-motor inhibitory processes through the modulation of neuronal synchronization processes. To our knowledge, this is the first study providing direct evidence for the relevance of the striatal GABAergic system for response inhibition functions and their cortical electrophysiological correlates in humans.

Rapid response systems.

PubMed

Lyons, Patrick G; Edelson, Dana P; Churpek, Matthew M

2018-07-01

Rapid response systems are commonly employed by hospitals to identify and respond to deteriorating patients outside of the intensive care unit. Controversy exists about the benefits of rapid response systems. We aimed to review the current state of the rapid response literature, including evolving aspects of afferent (risk detection) and efferent (intervention) arms, outcome measurement, process improvement, and implementation. Articles written in English and published in PubMed. Rapid response systems are heterogeneous, with important differences among afferent and efferent arms. Clinically meaningful outcomes may include unexpected mortality, in-hospital cardiac arrest, length of stay, cost, and processes of care at end of life. Both positive and negative interventional studies have been published, although the two largest randomized trials involving rapid response systems - the Medical Early Response and Intervention Trial (MERIT) and the Effect of a Pediatric Early Warning System on All-Cause Mortality in Hospitalized Pediatric Patients (EPOCH) trial - did not find a mortality benefit with these systems, albeit with important limitations. Advances in monitoring technologies, risk assessment strategies, and behavioral ergonomics may offer opportunities for improvement. Rapid responses may improve some meaningful outcomes, although these findings remain controversial. These systems may also improve care for patients at the end of life. Rapid response systems are expected to continue evolving with novel developments in monitoring technologies, risk prediction informatics, and work in human factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulation of magnetoelastic response of iron nanowire loop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Junping; Peng, Xianghe; Wang, Zhongchang; Hu, Xianzhi

2018-03-01

We analyzed the magnetoelastic responses of one-dimensional iron nanowire loop systems with quantum statistical mechanics, treating the particles in the systems as identical bosons with an arbitrary integer spin. Under the assumptions adopted, we demonstrated that the Hamiltonian of the system can be separated into two parts, corresponding to two Ising subsystems, describing the particle spin and the particle displacement, respectively. Because the energy of the particle motion at atomic scale is quantized, there should be more the strict constraint on the particle displacement Ising subsystem. Making use of the existing results for Ising system, the partition function of the system was derived into two parts, corresponding respectively to the two Ising subsystems. Then the Gibbs distribution was obtained by statistical mechanics, and the description for the magnetoelastic response was derived. The magnetoelastic responses were predicted with the developed approach, and the comparison with the results calculated with VASP demonstrates the validity of the developed approach.

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project.

PubMed

Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L L; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R P; Alhusseini, Tamera I; Bedford, Felicity E; Bennett, Dominic J; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J; Chng, Charlotte W T; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L P; Day, Julie; Echeverría-Londoño, Susy; Emerson, Susan R; Gao, Di; Garon, Morgan; Harrison, Michelle L K; Ingram, Daniel J; Jung, Martin; Kemp, Victoria; Kirkpatrick, Lucinda; Martin, Callum D; Pan, Yuan; Pask-Hale, Gwilym D; Pynegar, Edwin L; Robinson, Alexandra N; Sanchez-Ortiz, Katia; Senior, Rebecca A; Simmons, Benno I; White, Hannah J; Zhang, Hanbin; Aben, Job; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Adum, Gilbert B; Aguilar-Barquero, Virginia; Aizen, Marcelo A; Albertos, Belén; Alcala, E L; Del Mar Alguacil, Maria; Alignier, Audrey; Ancrenaz, Marc; Andersen, Alan N; Arbeláez-Cortés, Enrique; Armbrecht, Inge; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Aumann, Tom; Axmacher, Jan C; Azhar, Badrul; Azpiroz, Adrián B; Baeten, Lander; Bakayoko, Adama; Báldi, András; Banks, John E; Baral, Sharad K; Barlow, Jos; Barratt, Barbara I P; Barrico, Lurdes; Bartolommei, Paola; Barton, Diane M; Basset, Yves; Batáry, Péter; Bates, Adam J; Baur, Bruno; Bayne, Erin M; Beja, Pedro; Benedick, Suzan; Berg, Åke; Bernard, Henry; Berry, Nicholas J; Bhatt, Dinesh; Bicknell, Jake E; Bihn, Jochen H; Blake, Robin J; Bobo, Kadiri S; Bóçon, Roberto; Boekhout, Teun; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Bonham, Kevin J; Borges, Paulo A V; Borges, Sérgio H; Boutin, Céline; Bouyer, Jérémy; Bragagnolo, Cibele; Brandt, Jodi S; Brearley, Francis Q; Brito, Isabel; Bros, Vicenç; Brunet, Jörg; Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Buddle, Christopher M; Bugter, Rob; Buscardo, Erika; Buse, Jörn; Cabra-García, Jimmy; Cáceres, Nilton C; Cagle, Nicolette L; Calviño-Cancela, María; Cameron, Sydney A; Cancello, Eliana M; Caparrós, Rut; Cardoso, Pedro; Carpenter, Dan; Carrijo, Tiago F; Carvalho, Anelena L; Cassano, Camila R; Castro, Helena; Castro-Luna, Alejandro A; Rolando, Cerda B; Cerezo, Alexis; Chapman, Kim Alan; Chauvat, Matthieu; Christensen, Morten; Clarke, Francis M; Cleary, Daniel F R; Colombo, Giorgio; Connop, Stuart P; Craig, Michael D; Cruz-López, Leopoldo; Cunningham, Saul A; D'Aniello, Biagio; D'Cruze, Neil; da Silva, Pedro Giovâni; Dallimer, Martin; Danquah, Emmanuel; Darvill, Ben; Dauber, Jens; Davis, Adrian L V; Dawson, Jeff; de Sassi, Claudio; de Thoisy, Benoit; Deheuvels, Olivier; Dejean, Alain; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Diekötter, Tim; Dolia, Jignasu V; Domínguez, Erwin; Dominguez-Haydar, Yamileth; Dorn, Silvia; Draper, Isabel; Dreber, Niels; Dumont, Bertrand; Dures, Simon G; Dynesius, Mats; Edenius, Lars; Eggleton, Paul; Eigenbrod, Felix; Elek, Zoltán; Entling, Martin H; Esler, Karen J; de Lima, Ricardo F; Faruk, Aisyah; Farwig, Nina; Fayle, Tom M; Felicioli, Antonio; Felton, Annika M; Fensham, Roderick J; Fernandez, Ignacio C; Ferreira, Catarina C; Ficetola, Gentile F; Fiera, Cristina; Filgueiras, Bruno K C; Fırıncıoğlu, Hüseyin K; Flaspohler, David; Floren, Andreas; Fonte, Steven J; Fournier, Anne; Fowler, Robert E; Franzén, Markus; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Fredriksson, Gabriella M; Freire, Geraldo B; Frizzo, Tiago L M; Fukuda, Daisuke; Furlani, Dario; Gaigher, René; Ganzhorn, Jörg U; García, Karla P; Garcia-R, Juan C; Garden, Jenni G; Garilleti, Ricardo; Ge, Bao-Ming; Gendreau-Berthiaume, Benoit; Gerard, Philippa J; Gheler-Costa, Carla; Gilbert, Benjamin; Giordani, Paolo; Giordano, Simonetta; Golodets, Carly; Gomes, Laurens G L; Gould, Rachelle K; Goulson, Dave; Gove, Aaron D; Granjon, Laurent; Grass, Ingo; Gray, Claudia L; Grogan, James; Gu, Weibin; Guardiola, Moisès; Gunawardene, Nihara R; Gutierrez, Alvaro G; Gutiérrez-Lamus, Doris L; Haarmeyer, Daniela H; Hanley, Mick E; Hanson, Thor; Hashim, Nor R; Hassan, Shombe N; Hatfield, Richard G; Hawes, Joseph E; Hayward, Matt W; Hébert, Christian; Helden, Alvin J; Henden, John-André; Henschel, Philipp; Hernández, Lionel; Herrera, James P; Herrmann, Farina; Herzog, Felix; Higuera-Diaz, Diego; Hilje, Branko; Höfer, Hubert; Hoffmann, Anke; Horgan, Finbarr G; Hornung, Elisabeth; Horváth, Roland; Hylander, Kristoffer; Isaacs-Cubides, Paola; Ishida, Hiroaki; Ishitani, Masahiro; Jacobs, Carmen T; Jaramillo, Víctor J; Jauker, Birgit; Hernández, F Jiménez; Johnson, McKenzie F; Jolli, Virat; Jonsell, Mats; Juliani, S Nur; Jung, Thomas S; Kapoor, Vena; Kappes, Heike; Kati, Vassiliki; Katovai, Eric; Kellner, Klaus; Kessler, Michael; Kirby, Kathryn R; Kittle, Andrew M; Knight, Mairi E; Knop, Eva; Kohler, Florian; Koivula, Matti; Kolb, Annette; Kone, Mouhamadou; Kőrösi, Ádám; Krauss, Jochen; Kumar, Ajith; Kumar, Raman; Kurz, David J; Kutt, Alex S; Lachat, Thibault; Lantschner, Victoria; Lara, Francisco; Lasky, Jesse R; Latta, Steven C; Laurance, William F; Lavelle, Patrick; Le Féon, Violette; LeBuhn, Gretchen; Légaré, Jean-Philippe; Lehouck, Valérie; Lencinas, María V; Lentini, Pia E; Letcher, Susan G; Li, Qi; Litchwark, Simon A; Littlewood, Nick A; Liu, Yunhui; Lo-Man-Hung, Nancy; López-Quintero, Carlos A; Louhaichi, Mounir; Lövei, Gabor L; Lucas-Borja, Manuel Esteban; Luja, Victor H; Luskin, Matthew S; MacSwiney G, M Cristina; Maeto, Kaoru; Magura, Tibor; Mallari, Neil Aldrin; Malone, Louise A; Malonza, Patrick K; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Mandujano, Salvador; Måren, Inger E; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Marsh, Charles J; Marshall, E J P; Martínez, Eliana; Martínez Pastur, Guillermo; Moreno Mateos, David; Mayfield, Margaret M; Mazimpaka, Vicente; McCarthy, Jennifer L; McCarthy, Kyle P; McFrederick, Quinn S; McNamara, Sean; Medina, Nagore G; Medina, Rafael; Mena, Jose L; Mico, Estefania; Mikusinski, Grzegorz; Milder, Jeffrey C; Miller, James R; Miranda-Esquivel, Daniel R; Moir, Melinda L; Morales, Carolina L; Muchane, Mary N; Muchane, Muchai; Mudri-Stojnic, Sonja; Munira, A Nur; Muoñz-Alonso, Antonio; Munyekenye, B F; Naidoo, Robin; Naithani, A; Nakagawa, Michiko; Nakamura, Akihiro; Nakashima, Yoshihiro; Naoe, Shoji; Nates-Parra, Guiomar; Navarrete Gutierrez, Dario A; Navarro-Iriarte, Luis; Ndang'ang'a, Paul K; Neuschulz, Eike L; Ngai, Jacqueline T; Nicolas, Violaine; Nilsson, Sven G; Noreika, Norbertas; Norfolk, Olivia; Noriega, Jorge Ari; Norton, David A; Nöske, Nicole M; Nowakowski, A Justin; Numa, Catherine; O'Dea, Niall; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Oduro, William; Oertli, Sabine; Ofori-Boateng, Caleb; Oke, Christopher Omamoke; Oostra, Vicencio; Osgathorpe, Lynne M; Otavo, Samuel Eduardo; Page, Navendu V; Paritsis, Juan; Parra-H, Alejandro; Parry, Luke; Pe'er, Guy; Pearman, Peter B; Pelegrin, Nicolás; Pélissier, Raphaël; Peres, Carlos A; Peri, Pablo L; Persson, Anna S; Petanidou, Theodora; Peters, Marcell K; Pethiyagoda, Rohan S; Phalan, Ben; Philips, T Keith; Pillsbury, Finn C; Pincheira-Ulbrich, Jimmy; Pineda, Eduardo; Pino, Joan; Pizarro-Araya, Jaime; Plumptre, A J; Poggio, Santiago L; Politi, Natalia; Pons, Pere; Poveda, Katja; Power, Eileen F; Presley, Steven J; Proença, Vânia; Quaranta, Marino; Quintero, Carolina; Rader, Romina; Ramesh, B R; Ramirez-Pinilla, Martha P; Ranganathan, Jai; Rasmussen, Claus; Redpath-Downing, Nicola A; Reid, J Leighton; Reis, Yana T; Rey Benayas, José M; Rey-Velasco, Juan Carlos; Reynolds, Chevonne; Ribeiro, Danilo Bandini; Richards, Miriam H; Richardson, Barbara A; Richardson, Michael J; Ríos, Rodrigo Macip; Robinson, Richard; Robles, Carolina A; Römbke, Jörg; Romero-Duque, Luz Piedad; Rös, Matthias; Rosselli, Loreta; Rossiter, Stephen J; Roth, Dana S; Roulston, T'ai H; Rousseau, Laurent; Rubio, André V; Ruel, Jean-Claude; Sadler, Jonathan P; Sáfián, Szabolcs; Saldaña-Vázquez, Romeo A; Sam, Katerina; Samnegård, Ulrika; Santana, Joana; Santos, Xavier; Savage, Jade; Schellhorn, Nancy A; Schilthuizen, Menno; Schmiedel, Ute; Schmitt, Christine B; Schon, Nicole L; Schüepp, Christof; Schumann, Katharina; Schweiger, Oliver; Scott, Dawn M; Scott, Kenneth A; Sedlock, Jodi L; Seefeldt, Steven S; Shahabuddin, Ghazala; Shannon, Graeme; Sheil, Douglas; Sheldon, Frederick H; Shochat, Eyal; Siebert, Stefan J; Silva, Fernando A B; Simonetti, Javier A; Slade, Eleanor M; Smith, Jo; Smith-Pardo, Allan H; Sodhi, Navjot S; Somarriba, Eduardo J; Sosa, Ramón A; Soto Quiroga, Grimaldo; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues; Starzomski, Brian M; Stefanescu, Constanti; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stouffer, Philip C; Stout, Jane C; Strauch, Ayron M; Struebig, Matthew J; Su, Zhimin; Suarez-Rubio, Marcela; Sugiura, Shinji; Summerville, Keith S; Sung, Yik-Hei; Sutrisno, Hari; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Teder, Tiit; Threlfall, Caragh G; Tiitsaar, Anu; Todd, Jacqui H; Tonietto, Rebecca K; Torre, Ignasi; Tóthmérész, Béla; Tscharntke, Teja; Turner, Edgar C; Tylianakis, Jason M; Uehara-Prado, Marcio; Urbina-Cardona, Nicolas; Vallan, Denis; Vanbergen, Adam J; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Vassilev, Kiril; Verboven, Hans A F; Verdasca, Maria João; Verdú, José R; Vergara, Carlos H; Vergara, Pablo M; Verhulst, Jort; Virgilio, Massimiliano; Vu, Lien Van; Waite, Edward M; Walker, Tony R; Wang, Hua-Feng; Wang, Yanping; Watling, James I; Weller, Britta; Wells, Konstans; Westphal, Catrin; Wiafe, Edward D; Williams, Christopher D; Willig, Michael R; Woinarski, John C Z; Wolf, Jan H D; Wolters, Volkmar; Woodcock, Ben A; Wu, Jihua; Wunderle, Joseph M; Yamaura, Yuichi; Yoshikura, Satoko; Yu, Douglas W; Zaitsev, Andrey S; Zeidler, Juliane; Zou, Fasheng; Collen, Ben; Ewers, Rob M; Mace, Georgina M; Purves, Drew W; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Purvis, Andy

2017-01-01

The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Predictors of response to Systems Training for Emotional Predictability and Problem Solving (STEPPS) for borderline personality disorder: an exploratory study.

PubMed

Black, D W; Allen, J; St John, D; Pfohl, B; McCormick, B; Blum, N

2009-07-01

Few predictors of treatment outcome or early discontinuation have been identified in persons with borderline personality disorder (BPD). The aim of the study was to examine the relationship between baseline clinical variables and treatment response and early discontinuation in a randomized controlled trial of System Training for Emotional Predictability and Problem Solving, a new cognitive group treatment. Improvement was rated using the Zanarini Rating Scale for BPD, the Clinical Global Impression Scale, the Global Assessment Scale and the Beck Depression Inventory. Subjects were assessed during the 20 week trial and a 1-year follow-up. Higher baseline severity was associated with greater improvement in global functioning and BPD-related symptoms. Higher impulsivity was predictive of early discontinuation. Optimal improvement was associated with attending > or = 15 sessions. Subjects likely to improve have the more severe BPD symptoms at baseline, while high levels of impulsivity are associated with early discontinuation.

Dissociable Learning Processes Underlie Human Pain Conditioning

PubMed Central

Zhang, Suyi; Mano, Hiroaki; Ganesh, Gowrishankar; Robbins, Trevor; Seymour, Ben

2016-01-01

Summary Pavlovian conditioning underlies many aspects of pain behavior, including fear and threat detection [1], escape and avoidance learning [2], and endogenous analgesia [3]. Although a central role for the amygdala is well established [4], both human and animal studies implicate other brain regions in learning, notably ventral striatum and cerebellum [5]. It remains unclear whether these regions make different contributions to a single aversive learning process or represent independent learning mechanisms that interact to generate the expression of pain-related behavior. We designed a human parallel aversive conditioning paradigm in which different Pavlovian visual cues probabilistically predicted thermal pain primarily to either the left or right arm and studied the acquisition of conditioned Pavlovian responses using combined physiological recordings and fMRI. Using computational modeling based on reinforcement learning theory, we found that conditioning involves two distinct types of learning process. First, a non-specific “preparatory” system learns aversive facial expressions and autonomic responses such as skin conductance. The associated learning signals—the learned associability and prediction error—were correlated with fMRI brain responses in amygdala-striatal regions, corresponding to the classic aversive (fear) learning circuit. Second, a specific lateralized system learns “consummatory” limb-withdrawal responses, detectable with electromyography of the arm to which pain is predicted. Its related learned associability was correlated with responses in ipsilateral cerebellar cortex, suggesting a novel computational role for the cerebellum in pain. In conclusion, our results show that the overall phenotype of conditioned pain behavior depends on two dissociable reinforcement learning circuits. PMID:26711494

A comparative study of an innate immune response in Lamprologine cichlid fishes.

PubMed

O'Connor, Constance M; Reddon, Adam R; Marsh-Rollo, Susan E; Hellmann, Jennifer K; Ligocki, Isaac Y; Hamilton, Ian M; Balshine, Sigal

2014-10-01

Social interactions facilitate pathogen transmission and increase virulence. Therefore, species that live in social groups are predicted to suffer a higher pathogen burden, to invest more heavily in immune defence against pathogens, or both. However, there are few empirical tests of whether social species indeed invest more heavily in immune defence than non-social species. In the current study, we conducted a phylogenetically controlled comparison of innate immune response in Lamprologine cichlid fishes. We focused on three species of highly social cichlids that live in permanent groups and exhibit cooperative breeding (Julidochromis ornatus, Neolamprologus pulcher and Neolamprologus savoryi) and three species of non-social cichlids that exhibit neither grouping nor cooperative behaviour (Telmatochromis temporalis, Neolamprologus tetracanthus and Neolamprologus modestus). We quantified the innate immune response by injecting wild fishes with phytohaemagglutinin (PHA), a lectin that causes a cell-mediated immune response. We predicted that the three highly social species would show a greater immune reaction to the PHA treatment, indicating higher investment in immune defence against parasites relative to the three non-social species. We found significant species-level variation in immune response, but contrary to our prediction, this variation did not correspond to social system. However, we found that immune response was correlated with territory size across the six species. Our results indicate that the common assumption of a positive relationship between social system and investment in immune function may be overly simplistic. We suggest that factors such as rates of both in-group and out-group social interactions are likely to be important mediators of the relationship between sociality and immune function.

A comparative study of an innate immune response in Lamprologine cichlid fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connor, Constance M.; Reddon, Adam R.; Marsh-Rollo, Susan E.; Hellmann, Jennifer K.; Ligocki, Isaac Y.; Hamilton, Ian M.; Balshine, Sigal

2014-10-01

Social interactions facilitate pathogen transmission and increase virulence. Therefore, species that live in social groups are predicted to suffer a higher pathogen burden, to invest more heavily in immune defence against pathogens, or both. However, there are few empirical tests of whether social species indeed invest more heavily in immune defence than non-social species. In the current study, we conducted a phylogenetically controlled comparison of innate immune response in Lamprologine cichlid fishes. We focused on three species of highly social cichlids that live in permanent groups and exhibit cooperative breeding ( Julidochromis ornatus, Neolamprologus pulcher and Neolamprologus savoryi) and three species of non-social cichlids that exhibit neither grouping nor cooperative behaviour ( Telmatochromis temporalis, Neolamprologus tetracanthus and Neolamprologus modestus). We quantified the innate immune response by injecting wild fishes with phytohaemagglutinin (PHA), a lectin that causes a cell-mediated immune response. We predicted that the three highly social species would show a greater immune reaction to the PHA treatment, indicating higher investment in immune defence against parasites relative to the three non-social species. We found significant species-level variation in immune response, but contrary to our prediction, this variation did not correspond to social system. However, we found that immune response was correlated with territory size across the six species. Our results indicate that the common assumption of a positive relationship between social system and investment in immune function may be overly simplistic. We suggest that factors such as rates of both in-group and out-group social interactions are likely to be important mediators of the relationship between sociality and immune function.

Stress, Hyperreactivity, and Health.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Plowman, Sharon Ann

1994-01-01

Researchers have not yet agreed upon links between stress and illness. Levels of response mediated by the central nervous system are considered important in predicting and determining health consequences of stress. The paper uses the cardiovascular system to examine experimental evidence for the relationship between stress, health/illness, and…

Systems Biology for Organotypic Cell Cultures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grego, Sonia; Dougherty, Edward R.; Alexander, Francis J.

Translating in vitro biological data into actionable information related to human health holds the potential to improve disease treatment and risk assessment of chemical exposures. While genomics has identified regulatory pathways at the cellular level, translation to the organism level requires a multiscale approach accounting for intra-cellular regulation, inter-cellular interaction, and tissue/organ-level effects. Tissue-level effects can now be probed in vitro thanks to recently developed systems of three-dimensional (3D), multicellular, “organotypic” cell cultures, which mimic functional responses of living tissue. However, there remains a knowledge gap regarding interactions across different biological scales, complicating accurate prediction of health outcomes from molecular/genomicmore » data and tissue responses. Systems biology aims at mathematical modeling of complex, non-linear biological systems. We propose to apply a systems biology approach to achieve a computational representation of tissue-level physiological responses by integrating empirical data derived from organotypic culture systems with computational models of intracellular pathways to better predict human responses. Successful implementation of this integrated approach will provide a powerful tool for faster, more accurate and cost-effective screening of potential toxicants and therapeutics. On September 11, 2015, an interdisciplinary group of scientists, engineers, and clinicians gathered for a workshop in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, to discuss this ambitious goal. Participants represented laboratory-based and computational modeling approaches to pharmacology and toxicology, as well as the pharmaceutical industry, government, non-profits, and academia. Discussions focused on identifying critical system perturbations to model, the computational tools required, and the experimental approaches best suited to generating key data. This consensus report summarizes the discussions held.« less

Workshop Report: Systems Biology for Organotypic Cell Cultures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grego, Sonia; Dougherty, Edward R.; Alexander, Francis Joseph

Translating in vitro biological data into actionable information related to human health holds the potential to improve disease treatment and risk assessment of chemical exposures. While genomics has identified regulatory pathways at the cellular level, translation to the organism level requires a multiscale approach accounting for intra-cellular regulation, inter-cellular interaction, and tissue/organ-level effects. Tissue-level effects can now be probed in vitro thanks to recently developed systems of three-dimensional (3D), multicellular, “organotypic” cell cultures, which mimic functional responses of living tissue. However, there remains a knowledge gap regarding interactions across different biological scales, complicating accurate prediction of health outcomes from molecular/genomicmore » data and tissue responses. Systems biology aims at mathematical modeling of complex, non-linear biological systems. We propose to apply a systems biology approach to achieve a computational representation of tissue-level physiological responses by integrating empirical data derived from organotypic culture systems with computational models of intracellular pathways to better predict human responses. Successful implementation of this integrated approach will provide a powerful tool for faster, more accurate and cost-effective screening of potential toxicants and therapeutics. On September 11, 2015, an interdisciplinary group of scientists, engineers, and clinicians gathered for a workshop in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, to discuss this ambitious goal. Participants represented laboratory-based and computational modeling approaches to pharmacology and toxicology, as well as the pharmaceutical industry, government, non-profits, and academia. Discussions focused on identifying critical system perturbations to model, the computational tools required, and the experimental approaches best suited to generating key data.« less

Workshop Report: Systems Biology for Organotypic Cell Cultures

DOE PAGES

Grego, Sonia; Dougherty, Edward R.; Alexander, Francis Joseph; ...

2016-11-14

Translating in vitro biological data into actionable information related to human health holds the potential to improve disease treatment and risk assessment of chemical exposures. While genomics has identified regulatory pathways at the cellular level, translation to the organism level requires a multiscale approach accounting for intra-cellular regulation, inter-cellular interaction, and tissue/organ-level effects. Tissue-level effects can now be probed in vitro thanks to recently developed systems of three-dimensional (3D), multicellular, “organotypic” cell cultures, which mimic functional responses of living tissue. However, there remains a knowledge gap regarding interactions across different biological scales, complicating accurate prediction of health outcomes from molecular/genomicmore » data and tissue responses. Systems biology aims at mathematical modeling of complex, non-linear biological systems. We propose to apply a systems biology approach to achieve a computational representation of tissue-level physiological responses by integrating empirical data derived from organotypic culture systems with computational models of intracellular pathways to better predict human responses. Successful implementation of this integrated approach will provide a powerful tool for faster, more accurate and cost-effective screening of potential toxicants and therapeutics. On September 11, 2015, an interdisciplinary group of scientists, engineers, and clinicians gathered for a workshop in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, to discuss this ambitious goal. Participants represented laboratory-based and computational modeling approaches to pharmacology and toxicology, as well as the pharmaceutical industry, government, non-profits, and academia. Discussions focused on identifying critical system perturbations to model, the computational tools required, and the experimental approaches best suited to generating key data.« less

Systems biology for organotypic cell cultures.

PubMed

Grego, Sonia; Dougherty, Edward R; Alexander, Francis J; Auerbach, Scott S; Berridge, Brian R; Bittner, Michael L; Casey, Warren; Cooley, Philip C; Dash, Ajit; Ferguson, Stephen S; Fennell, Timothy R; Hawkins, Brian T; Hickey, Anthony J; Kleensang, Andre; Liebman, Michael N J; Martin, Florian; Maull, Elizabeth A; Paragas, Jason; Qiao, Guilin Gary; Ramaiahgari, Sreenivasa; Sumner, Susan J; Yoon, Miyoung

2017-01-01

Translating in vitro biological data into actionable information related to human health holds the potential to improve disease treatment and risk assessment of chemical exposures. While genomics has identified regulatory pathways at the cellular level, translation to the organism level requires a multiscale approach accounting for intra-cellular regulation, inter-cellular interaction, and tissue/organ-level effects. Tissue-level effects can now be probed in vitro thanks to recently developed systems of three-dimensional (3D), multicellular, "organotypic" cell cultures, which mimic functional responses of living tissue. However, there remains a knowledge gap regarding interactions across different biological scales, complicating accurate prediction of health outcomes from molecular/genomic data and tissue responses. Systems biology aims at mathematical modeling of complex, non-linear biological systems. We propose to apply a systems biology approach to achieve a computational representation of tissue-level physiological responses by integrating empirical data derived from organotypic culture systems with computational models of intracellular pathways to better predict human responses. Successful implementation of this integrated approach will provide a powerful tool for faster, more accurate and cost-effective screening of potential toxicants and therapeutics. On September 11, 2015, an interdisciplinary group of scientists, engineers, and clinicians gathered for a workshop in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, to discuss this ambitious goal. Participants represented laboratory-based and computational modeling approaches to pharmacology and toxicology, as well as the pharmaceutical industry, government, non-profits, and academia. Discussions focused on identifying critical system perturbations to model, the computational tools required, and the experimental approaches best suited to generating key data.

Predicting Mountainous Watershed Biogeochemical Dynamics, Including Response to Droughts and Early Snowmelt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubbard, S. S.; Williams, K. H.; Long, P.; Agarwal, D.; Banfield, J. F.; Beller, H. R.; Bouskill, N.; Brodie, E.; Maxwell, R. M.; Nico, P. S.; Steefel, C. I.; Steltzer, H.; Tokunaga, T. K.; Wainwright, H. M.

2016-12-01

Climate change, extreme weather, land-use change, and other perturbations are significantly reshaping interactions with in watersheds throughout the world. While mountainous watersheds are recognized as the water towers for the world, hydrological processes in watersheds also mediate biogeochemical processes that support all terrestrial life. Developing predictive understanding of watershed hydrological and biogeochemical functioning is challenging, as complex interactions occurring within a heterogeneous watershed can lead to a cascade of effects on downstream water availability and quality. Although these interactions can have significant implications for energy production, agriculture, water quality, and other benefits valued by society, uncertainty associated with predicting watershed function is high. The Watershed Function project aims to substantially reduce this uncertainty through developing a predictive understanding of how mountainous watersheds retain and release downgradient water, nutrients, carbon, and metals. In particular, the project is exploring how early snowmelt, drought, and other disturbances will influence mountainous watershed dynamics at seasonal to decadal timescales. The Watershed Function project is being carried out in a headwater mountainous catchment of the Upper Colorado River Basin, within a watershed characterized by significant gradients in elevation, vegetation and hydrogeology. A system-within system project perspective posits that the integrated watershed response to disturbances can be adequately predicted through consideration of interactions and feedbacks occurring within a limited number of subsystems, each having distinct vegetation-subsurface biogeochemical-hydrological characteristics. A key technological goal is the development of scale-adaptive simulation capabilities that can incorporate genomic information where and when it is useful for predicting the overall watershed response to disturbance. Through developing and integrating new microbial ecology, geochemical, hydrological, ecohydrological, computational and geophysical approaches, the project is developing new insights about biogeochemical dynamics from genome to watershed scales.

2018 update to the HIV-TRePS system: the development of new computational models to predict HIV treatment outcomes, with or without a genotype, with enhanced usability for low-income settings.

PubMed

Revell, Andrew D; Wang, Dechao; Perez-Elias, Maria-Jesus; Wood, Robin; Cogill, Dolphina; Tempelman, Hugo; Hamers, Raph L; Reiss, Peter; van Sighem, Ard I; Rehm, Catherine A; Pozniak, Anton; Montaner, Julio S G; Lane, H Clifford; Larder, Brendan A

2018-06-08

Optimizing antiretroviral drug combination on an individual basis can be challenging, particularly in settings with limited access to drugs and genotypic resistance testing. Here we describe our latest computational models to predict treatment responses, with or without a genotype, and compare their predictive accuracy with that of genotyping. Random forest models were trained to predict the probability of virological response to a new therapy introduced following virological failure using up to 50 000 treatment change episodes (TCEs) without a genotype and 18 000 TCEs including genotypes. Independent data sets were used to evaluate the models. This study tested the effects on model accuracy of relaxing the baseline data timing windows, the use of a new filter to exclude probable non-adherent cases and the addition of maraviroc, tipranavir and elvitegravir to the system. The no-genotype models achieved area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.82 and 0.81 using the standard and relaxed baseline data windows, respectively. The genotype models achieved AUC values of 0.86 with the new non-adherence filter and 0.84 without. Both sets of models were significantly more accurate than genotyping with rules-based interpretation, which achieved AUC values of only 0.55-0.63, and were marginally more accurate than previous models. The models were able to identify alternative regimens that were predicted to be effective for the vast majority of cases in which the new regimen prescribed in the clinic failed. These latest global models predict treatment responses accurately even without a genotype and have the potential to help optimize therapy, particularly in resource-limited settings.

A thermal sensation prediction tool for use by the profession

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fountain, M.E.; Huizenga, C.

1997-12-31

As part of a recent ASHRAE research project (781-RP), a thermal sensation prediction tool has been developed. This paper introduces the tool, describes the component thermal sensation models, and presents examples of how the tool can be used in practice. Since the main end product of the HVAC industry is the comfort of occupants indoors, tools for predicting occupant thermal response can be an important asset to designers of indoor climate control systems. The software tool presented in this paper incorporates several existing models for predicting occupant comfort.

Counterbalancing Regulation in Response Memory of a Positively Autoregulated Two-Component System.

PubMed

Gao, Rong; Godfrey, Katherine A; Sufian, Mahir A; Stock, Ann M

2017-09-15

Fluctuations in nutrient availability often result in recurrent exposures to the same stimulus conditions. The ability to memorize the past event and use the "memory" to make adjustments to current behaviors can lead to a more efficient adaptation to the recurring stimulus. A short-term phenotypic memory can be conferred via carryover of the response proteins to facilitate the recurrent response, but the additional accumulation of response proteins can lead to a deviation from response homeostasis. We used the Escherichia coli PhoB/PhoR two-component system (TCS) as a model system to study how cells cope with the recurrence of environmental phosphate (Pi) starvation conditions. We discovered that "memory" of prior Pi starvation can exert distinct effects through two regulatory pathways, the TCS signaling pathway and the stress response pathway. Although carryover of TCS proteins can lead to higher initial levels of transcription factor PhoB and a faster initial response in prestarved cells than in cells not starved, the response enhancement can be overcome by an earlier and greater repression of promoter activity in prestarved cells due to the memory of the stress response. The repression counterbalances the carryover of the response proteins, leading to a homeostatic response whether or not cells are prestimulated. A computational model based on sigma factor competition was developed to understand the memory of stress response and to predict the homeostasis of other PhoB-regulated response proteins. Our insight into the history-dependent PhoBR response may provide a general understanding of how TCSs respond to recurring stimuli and adapt to fluctuating environmental conditions. IMPORTANCE Bacterial cells in their natural environments experience scenarios that are far more complex than are typically replicated in laboratory experiments. The architectures of signaling systems and the integration of multiple adaptive pathways have evolved to deal with such complexity. In this study, we examined the molecular "memory" that is generated by previous exposure to stimulus. Under our experimental conditions, activating effects of autoregulated two-component signaling and inhibitory effects of the stress response counterbalanced the transcriptional output to approach response homeostasis whether or not cells had been preexposed to stimulus. Modeling allows prediction of response behavior in different scenarios and demonstrates both the robustness of the system output and its sensitivity to historical parameters such as timing and levels of exposure to stimuli. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Counterbalancing Regulation in Response Memory of a Positively Autoregulated Two-Component System

PubMed Central

Gao, Rong; Godfrey, Katherine A.; Sufian, Mahir A.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Fluctuations in nutrient availability often result in recurrent exposures to the same stimulus conditions. The ability to memorize the past event and use the “memory” to make adjustments to current behaviors can lead to a more efficient adaptation to the recurring stimulus. A short-term phenotypic memory can be conferred via carryover of the response proteins to facilitate the recurrent response, but the additional accumulation of response proteins can lead to a deviation from response homeostasis. We used the Escherichia coli PhoB/PhoR two-component system (TCS) as a model system to study how cells cope with the recurrence of environmental phosphate (Pi) starvation conditions. We discovered that “memory” of prior Pi starvation can exert distinct effects through two regulatory pathways, the TCS signaling pathway and the stress response pathway. Although carryover of TCS proteins can lead to higher initial levels of transcription factor PhoB and a faster initial response in prestarved cells than in cells not starved, the response enhancement can be overcome by an earlier and greater repression of promoter activity in prestarved cells due to the memory of the stress response. The repression counterbalances the carryover of the response proteins, leading to a homeostatic response whether or not cells are prestimulated. A computational model based on sigma factor competition was developed to understand the memory of stress response and to predict the homeostasis of other PhoB-regulated response proteins. Our insight into the history-dependent PhoBR response may provide a general understanding of how TCSs respond to recurring stimuli and adapt to fluctuating environmental conditions. IMPORTANCE Bacterial cells in their natural environments experience scenarios that are far more complex than are typically replicated in laboratory experiments. The architectures of signaling systems and the integration of multiple adaptive pathways have evolved to deal with such complexity. In this study, we examined the molecular “memory” that is generated by previous exposure to stimulus. Under our experimental conditions, activating effects of autoregulated two-component signaling and inhibitory effects of the stress response counterbalanced the transcriptional output to approach response homeostasis whether or not cells had been preexposed to stimulus. Modeling allows prediction of response behavior in different scenarios and demonstrates both the robustness of the system output and its sensitivity to historical parameters such as timing and levels of exposure to stimuli. PMID:28674072

SRG110 Stirling Generator Dynamic Simulator Vibration Test Results and Analysis Correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Vicente J.; Lewandowski, Edward J.; Callahan, John

2006-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Lockheed Martin (LM), and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) have been developing the Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG110) for use as a power system for space science missions. The launch environment enveloping potential missions results in a random input spectrum that is significantly higher than historical RPS launch levels and is a challenge for designers. Analysis presented in prior work predicted that tailoring the compliance at the generator-spacecraft interface reduced the dynamic response of the system thereby allowing higher launch load input levels and expanding the range of potential generator missions. To confirm analytical predictions, a dynamic simulator representing the generator structure, Stirling convertors and heat sources was designed and built for testing with and without a compliant interface. Finite element analysis was performed to guide the generator simulator and compliant interface design so that test modes and frequencies were representative of the SRG110 generator. This paper presents the dynamic simulator design, the test setup and methodology, test article modes and frequencies and dynamic responses, and post-test analysis results. With the compliant interface, component responses to an input environment exceeding the SRG110 qualification level spectrum were all within design allowables. Post-test analysis included finite element model tuning to match test frequencies and random response analysis using the test input spectrum. Analytical results were in good overall agreement with the test results and confirmed previous predictions that the SRG110 power system may be considered for a broad range of potential missions, including those with demanding launch environments.

Characterization of structural connections using free and forced response test data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawrence, Charles; Huckelbridge, Arthur A.

1989-01-01

The accurate prediction of system dynamic response often has been limited by deficiencies in existing capabilities to characterize connections adequately. Connections between structural components often are complex mechanically, and difficult to accurately model analytically. Improved analytical models for connections are needed to improve system dynamic preditions. A procedure for identifying physical connection properties from free and forced response test data is developed, then verified utilizing a system having both a linear and nonlinear connection. Connection properties are computed in terms of physical parameters so that the physical characteristics of the connections can better be understood, in addition to providing improved input for the system model. The identification procedure is applicable to multi-degree of freedom systems, and does not require that the test data be measured directly at the connection locations.

An experimental design for quantification of cardiovascular responses to music stimuli in humans.

PubMed

Chang, S-H; Luo, C-H; Yeh, T-L

2004-01-01

There have been several researches on the relationship between music and human physiological or psychological responses. However, there are cardiovascular index factors that have not been explored quantitatively due to the qualitative nature of acoustic stimuli. This study proposes and demonstrates an experimental design for quantification of cardiovascular responses to music stimuli in humans. The system comprises two components: a unit for generating and monitoring quantitative acoustic stimuli and a portable autonomic nervous system (ANS) analysis unit for quantitative recording and analysis of the cardiovascular responses. The experimental results indicate that the proposed system can exactly achieve the goal of full control and measurement for the music stimuli, and also effectively support many quantitative indices of cardiovascular response in humans. In addition, the analysis results are discussed and predicted in the future clinical research.

Predicting the Spectral Effects of Soils on Concentrating Photovoltaic Systems

DOE PAGES

Burton, Patrick D.; King, Bruce Hardison; Riley, Daniel M.

2014-12-15

The soiling losses on high concentrating photovoltaic (HCPV) systems may be influenced by the spectral properties of accumulated soil. We predicted the response of an isotype cell to changes in spectral content and reduction in transmission due to soiling using measured UV/vis transmittance through soil films. Artificial soil test blends deposited on glass coupons were used to supply the transmission data, which was then used to calculate the effect on model spectra. Moreover, the wavelength transparency of the test soil was varied by incorporating red and yellow mineral pigments into graded sand. The more spectrally responsive (yellow) soils were predictedmore » to alter the current balance between the top and middle subcells throughout a range of air masses corresponding to daily and seasonal variation.« less

A system identification technique based on the random decrement signatures. Part 1: Theory and simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bedewi, Nabih E.; Yang, Jackson C. S.

1987-01-01

Identification of the system parameters of a randomly excited structure may be treated using a variety of statistical techniques. Of all these techniques, the Random Decrement is unique in that it provides the homogeneous component of the system response. Using this quality, a system identification technique was developed based on a least-squares fit of the signatures to estimate the mass, damping, and stiffness matrices of a linear randomly excited system. The mathematics of the technique is presented in addition to the results of computer simulations conducted to demonstrate the prediction of the response of the system and the random forcing function initially introduced to excite the system.

Auralization Architectures for NASA?s Next Generation Aircraft Noise Prediction Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rizzi, Stephen A.; Lopes, Leonard V.; Burley, Casey L.; Aumann, Aric R.

2013-01-01

Aircraft community noise is a significant concern due to continued growth in air traffic, increasingly stringent environmental goals, and operational limitations imposed by airport authorities. The assessment of human response to noise from future aircraft can only be afforded through laboratory testing using simulated flyover noise. Recent work by the authors demonstrated the ability to auralize predicted flyover noise for a state-of-the-art reference aircraft and a future hybrid wing body aircraft concept. This auralization used source noise predictions from NASA's Aircraft NOise Prediction Program (ANOPP) as input. The results from this process demonstrated that auralization based upon system noise predictions is consistent with, and complementary to, system noise predictions alone. To further develop and validate the auralization process, improvements to the interfaces between the synthesis capability and the system noise tools are required. This paper describes the key elements required for accurate noise synthesis and introduces auralization architectures for use with the next-generation ANOPP (ANOPP2). The architectures are built around a new auralization library and its associated Application Programming Interface (API) that utilize ANOPP2 APIs to access data required for auralization. The architectures are designed to make the process of auralizing flyover noise a common element of system noise prediction.

Characterizing the associative content of brain structures involved in habitual and goal-directed actions in humans: a multivariate FMRI study.

PubMed

McNamee, Daniel; Liljeholm, Mimi; Zika, Ondrej; O'Doherty, John P

2015-03-04

While there is accumulating evidence for the existence of distinct neural systems supporting goal-directed and habitual action selection in the mammalian brain, much less is known about the nature of the information being processed in these different brain regions. Associative learning theory predicts that brain systems involved in habitual control, such as the dorsolateral striatum, should contain stimulus and response information only, but not outcome information, while regions involved in goal-directed action, such as ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and dorsomedial striatum, should be involved in processing information about outcomes as well as stimuli and responses. To test this prediction, human participants underwent fMRI while engaging in a binary choice task designed to enable the separate identification of these different representations with a multivariate classification analysis approach. Consistent with our predictions, the dorsolateral striatum contained information about responses but not outcomes at the time of an initial stimulus, while the regions implicated in goal-directed action selection contained information about both responses and outcomes. These findings suggest that differential contributions of these regions to habitual and goal-directed behavioral control may depend in part on basic differences in the type of information that these regions have access to at the time of decision making. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/353764-08$15.00/0.

Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunstone, Nick; Smith, Doug; Scaife, Adam; Hermanson, Leon; Fereday, David; O'Reilly, Chris; Stirling, Alison; Eade, Rosie; Gordon, Margaret; MacLachlan, Craig; Woollings, Tim; Sheen, Katy; Belcher, Stephen

2018-04-01

Year-to-year variability in Northern European summer rainfall has profound societal and economic impacts; however, current seasonal forecast systems show no significant forecast skill. Here we show that skillful predictions are possible (r 0.5, p < 0.001) using the latest high-resolution Met Office near-term prediction system over 1960-2017. The model predictions capture both low-frequency changes (e.g., wet summers 2007-2012) and some of the large individual events (e.g., dry summer 1976). Skill is linked to predictable North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability changing the supply of water vapor into Northern Europe and so modulating convective rainfall. However, dynamical circulation variability is not well predicted in general—although some interannual skill is found. Due to the weak amplitude of the forced model signal (likely caused by missing or weak model responses), very large ensembles (>80 members) are required for skillful predictions. This work is promising for the development of European summer rainfall climate services.

Putting flow-ecology relationships into practice: A decision-support system to assess fish community response to water-management scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Caldwell, Casey; Nebiker, Steven; Knight, Rodney

2017-01-01

This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

Centralized and Decentralized Control for Demand Response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Shuai; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng

2011-04-29

Demand response has been recognized as an essential element of the smart grid. Frequency response, regulation and contingency reserve functions performed traditionally by generation resources are now starting to involve demand side resources. Additional benefits from demand response include peak reduction and load shifting, which will defer new infrastructure investment and improve generator operation efficiency. Technical approaches designed to realize these functionalities can be categorized into centralized control and decentralized control, depending on where the response decision is made. This paper discusses these two control philosophies and compares their relative advantages and disadvantages in terms of delay time, predictability, complexity,more » and reliability. A distribution system model with detailed household loads and controls is built to demonstrate the characteristics of the two approaches. The conclusion is that the promptness and reliability of decentralized control should be combined with the predictability and simplicity of centralized control to achieve the best performance of the smart grid.« less

Vibration response of buildings to rail transit groundborne vibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, James

2005-09-01

The FTA guidelines for detailed analysis and prediction of groundborne noise and vibration generated by rail transit systems are based on established empirical methods. The procedures for the measurement of vehicle/track system source strength and the attenuation of vibration as it propagates with distance through the ground are generally accepted practice at this time. However, characterization of the building response is open to debate, due in part to the wide array of building construction encountered adjacent to transit systems. Numerous measurements that have been obtained in a variety of building construction types are presented and preliminary conclusions are drawn regarding the responses of several common building types to rail transit groundborne vibration.

Matsu: An Elastic Cloud Connected to a SensorWeb for Disaster Response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mandl, Daniel

2011-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the use of cloud computing combined with the SensorWeb in aiding disaster response planning. Included is an overview of the architecture of the SensorWeb, and overviews of the phase 1 of the EO-1 system and the steps to improve it to transform it to an On-demand product cloud as part of the Open Cloud Consortium (OCC). The effectiveness of this system is demonstrated in the SensorWeb for the Namibia flood in 2010, using information blended from MODIS, TRMM, River Gauge data, and the Google Earth version of Namibia the system enabled river surge predictions and could enable planning for future disaster responses.

A Two-Time Scale Decentralized Model Predictive Controller Based on Input and Output Model

PubMed Central

Niu, Jian; Zhao, Jun; Xu, Zuhua; Qian, Jixin

2009-01-01

A decentralized model predictive controller applicable for some systems which exhibit different dynamic characteristics in different channels was presented in this paper. These systems can be regarded as combinations of a fast model and a slow model, the response speeds of which are in two-time scale. Because most practical models used for control are obtained in the form of transfer function matrix by plant tests, a singular perturbation method was firstly used to separate the original transfer function matrix into two models in two-time scale. Then a decentralized model predictive controller was designed based on the two models derived from the original system. And the stability of the control method was proved. Simulations showed that the method was effective. PMID:19834542

Vibro-acoustic propagation of gear dynamics in a gear-bearing-housing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yi; Eritenel, Tugan; Ericson, Tristan M.; Parker, Robert G.

2014-10-01

This work developed a computational process to predict noise radiation from gearboxes. It developed a system-level vibro-acoustic model of an actual gearbox, including gears, bearings, shafts, and housing structure, and compared the results to experiments. The meshing action of gear teeth causes vibrations to propagate through shafts and bearings to the housing radiating noise. The vibration excitation from the gear mesh and the system response were predicted using finite element and lumped-parameter models. From these results, the radiated noise was calculated using a boundary element model of the housing. Experimental vibration and noise measurements from the gearbox confirmed the computational predictions. The developed tool was used to investigate the influence of standard rolling element and modified journal bearings on gearbox radiated noise.

Discovering a vaccine against neosporosis using computers: is it feasible?

PubMed

Goodswen, Stephen J; Kennedy, Paul J; Ellis, John T

2014-08-01

A vaccine is urgently needed to prevent cattle neosporosis. This infectious disease is caused by the parasite Neospora caninum, a complex biological system with multifaceted life cycles. An in silico vaccine discovery approach attempts to transform digital abstractions of this system into adequate knowledge to predict candidates. Researchers need current information to implement such an approach, such as understanding evasion mechanisms of the immune system, type of immune response to elicit, availability of data and prediction programs, and statistical models to analyze predictions. Taken together, an in silico approach involves assembly of an intricate jigsaw of interdisciplinary and interdependent knowledge. In this review, we focus on the approach influencing vaccine development against Neospora caninum, which can be generalized to other pathogenic apicomplexans. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Challenges and Opportunities with Predicting in Vivo Phase II Metabolism via Glucuronidation from in Vitro Data

PubMed Central

Ge, Shufan; Tu, Yifan; Hu, Ming

2017-01-01

Glucuronidation is the most important phase II metabolic pathway which is responsible for the clearance of many endogenous and exogenous compounds. To better understand the elimination process for compounds undergoing glucuronidation and identify compounds with desirable in vivo pharmacokinetic properties, many efforts have been made to predict in vivo glucuronidation using in vitro data. In this article, we reviewed typical approaches used in previous predictions. The problems and challenges in prediction of glucuronidation were discussed. Besides that different incubation conditions can affect the prediction accuracy, other factors including efflux / uptake transporters, enterohepatic recycling, and deglucuronidation reactions also contribute to the disposition of glucuronides and make the prediction more difficult. PBPK modeling, which can describe more complicated process in vivo, is a promising prediction strategy which may greatly improve the prediction of glucuronidation and potential DDIs involving glucuronidation. Based on previous studies, we proposed a transport-glucuronidation classification system, which was built based on the kinetics of both glucuronidation and transport of the glucuronide. This system could be a very useful tool to achieve better in vivo predictions. PMID:28966903

Development of a nonlinear model for the prediction of response times of glucose affinity sensors using concanavalin A and dextran and the development of a differential osmotic glucose affinity sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reis, Louis G.

With the increasing prevalence of diabetes in the United States and worldwide, blood glucose monitoring must be accurate and reliable. Current enzymatic sensors have numerous disadvantages that make them unreliable and unfavorable among patients. Recent research in glucose affinity sensors correct some of the problems that enzymatic sensors experience. Dextran and concanavalin A are two of the more common components used in glucose affinity sensors. When these sensors were first explored, a model was derived to predict the response time of a glucose affinity sensor using concanavalin A and dextran. However, the model assumed the system was linear and fell short of calculating times representative of the response times determined through experimental tests with the sensors. In this work, a new model that uses the Stokes-Einstein Equation to demonstrate the nonlinear behavior of the glucose affinity assay was developed to predict the response times of similar glucose affinity sensors. In addition to the device tested by the original linear model, additional devices were identified and tested with the proposed model. The nonlinear model was designed to accommodate the many different variations between systems. The proposed model was able to accurately calculate response times for sensors using the concanavalin A-dextran affinity assay with respect to the experimentally reported times by the independent research groups. Parameter studies using the nonlinear model were able to identify possible setbacks that could compromise the response of thesystem. Specifically, the model showed that the improper use of asymmetrical membranes could increase the response time by as little as 20% or more as the device is miniaturized. The model also demonstrated that systems using the concanavalin Adextran assay would experience higher response times in the hypoglycemic range. This work attempted to replicate and improve an osmotic glucose affinity sensor. The system was designed to negate additional effects that could cause artifacts or irregular readings such as external osmotic differences and external pressure differences. However, the experimental setup and execution faced numerous setbacks that highlighted the additional difficulty that sensors using asymmetrical ceramic membranes and the concanavalin A-dextran affinity assay may experience.

Predicting the velocity and azimuth of fragments generated by the range destruction or random failure of rocket casings and tankage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eck, Marshall; Mukunda, Meera

1988-01-01

A calculational method is described which provides a powerful tool for predicting solid rocket motor (SRM) casing and liquid rocket tankage fragmentation response. The approach properly partitions the available impulse to each major system-mass component. It uses the Pisces code developed by Physics International to couple the forces generated by an Eulerian-modeled gas flow field to a Lagrangian-modeled fuel and casing system. The details of the predictive analytical modeling process and the development of normalized relations for momentum partition as a function of SRM burn time and initial geometry are discussed. Methods for applying similar modeling techniques to liquid-tankage-overpressure failures are also discussed. Good agreement between predictions and observations are obtained for five specific events.

Spacecraft Charging and Auroral Boundary Predictions in Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minow, Joseph I.

2016-01-01

Auroral charging of spacecraft is an important class of space weather impacts on technological systems in low Earth orbit. In order for space weather models to accurately specify auroral charging environments, they must provide the appropriate plasma environment characteristics responsible for charging. Improvements in operational space weather prediction capabilities relevant to charging must be tested against charging observations.

Passive cyclic pitch control for horizontal axis wind turbines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bottrell, G. W.

1981-01-01

A flexible rotor concept, called the balanced pitch rotor, is described. The system provides passive adjustment of cyclic pitch in response to unbalanced pitching moments across the rotor disk. Various applications are described and performance predictions are made for wind shear and cross wind operating conditions. Comparisons with the teetered hub are made and significant cost savings are predicted.

Interactions between MAOA Genotype and Receipt of Public Assistance: Predicting Change in Depressive Symptoms and Body Mass Index

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marmorstein, Naomi R.; Hart, Daniel

2011-01-01

Response to stress is determined in part by genetically influenced regulation of the monoamine system (MAOA). We examined the interaction of a stressor (receipt of public assistance) and a gene regulating MAOA in the prediction of change in adolescent depressive symptoms and body mass index (BMI). Participants were drawn from the National…

Evolution of viral virulence: empirical studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kurath, Gael; Wargo, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

The concept of virulence as a pathogen trait that can evolve in response to selection has led to a large body of virulence evolution theory developed in the 1980-1990s. Various aspects of this theory predict increased or decreased virulence in response to a complex array of selection pressures including mode of transmission, changes in host, mixed infection, vector-borne transmission, environmental changes, host vaccination, host resistance, and co-evolution of virus and host. A fundamental concept is prediction of trade-offs between the costs and benefits associated with higher virulence, leading to selection of optimal virulence levels. Through a combination of observational and experimental studies, including experimental evolution of viruses during serial passage, many of these predictions have now been explored in systems ranging from bacteriophage to viruses of plants, invertebrates, and vertebrate hosts. This chapter summarizes empirical studies of viral virulence evolution in numerous diverse systems, including the classic models myxomavirus in rabbits, Marek's disease virus in chickens, and HIV in humans. Collectively these studies support some aspects of virulence evolution theory, suggest modifications for other aspects, and show that predictions may apply in some virus:host interactions but not in others. Finally, we consider how virulence evolution theory applies to disease management in the field.

Surrogate modeling of joint flood risk across coastal watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bass, Benjamin; Bedient, Philip

2018-03-01

This study discusses the development and performance of a rapid prediction system capable of representing the joint rainfall-runoff and storm surge flood response of tropical cyclones (TCs) for probabilistic risk analysis. Due to the computational demand required for accurately representing storm surge with the high-fidelity ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model and its coupling with additional numerical models to represent rainfall-runoff, a surrogate or statistical model was trained to represent the relationship between hurricane wind- and pressure-field characteristics and their peak joint flood response typically determined from physics based numerical models. This builds upon past studies that have only evaluated surrogate models for predicting peak surge, and provides the first system capable of probabilistically representing joint flood levels from TCs. The utility of this joint flood prediction system is then demonstrated by improving upon probabilistic TC flood risk products, which currently account for storm surge but do not take into account TC associated rainfall-runoff. Results demonstrate the source apportionment of rainfall-runoff versus storm surge and highlight that slight increases in flood risk levels may occur due to the interaction between rainfall-runoff and storm surge as compared to the Federal Emergency Management Association's (FEMAs) current practices.

Nonlinearity and Strain-Rate Dependence in the Deformation Response of Polymer Matrix Composites Modeled

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Robert K.

2000-01-01

There has been no accurate procedure for modeling the high-speed impact of composite materials, but such an analytical capability will be required in designing reliable lightweight engine-containment systems. The majority of the models in use assume a linear elastic material response that does not vary with strain rate. However, for containment systems, polymer matrix composites incorporating ductile polymers are likely to be used. For such a material, the deformation response is likely to be nonlinear and to vary with strain rate. An analytical model has been developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field that incorporates both of these features. A set of constitutive equations that was originally developed to analyze the viscoplastic deformation of metals (Ramaswamy-Stouffer equations) was modified to simulate the nonlinear, rate-dependent deformation of polymers. Specifically, the effects of hydrostatic stresses on the inelastic response, which can be significant in polymers, were accounted for by a modification of the definition of the effective stress. The constitutive equations were then incorporated into a composite micromechanics model based on the mechanics of materials theory. This theory predicts the deformation response of a composite material from the properties and behavior of the individual constituents. In this manner, the nonlinear, rate-dependent deformation response of a polymer matrix composite can be predicted.

An investigation of the open-loop amplification of a Reynolds number dependent process by wave distortion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ventrice, M. B.; Purdy, K. R.

1974-01-01

The response of a constant-temperature hot-wire anemometer to sinusoidal and distorted sinusoidal acoustic oscillations is examined. The output of the anemometer is dependent upon the Reynolds number of the flow over the wire. The response is a measure of the interaction between the anemometer output and the acoustic pressure in the neighborhood of the wire. It is an open-loop prediction of the characteristics of actual closed-loop operation of a system. If the open-loop response is large enough, unstable closed-loop operation is predicted. The study was motivated by a need to investigate the stability limits of liquid-propellant rockets when perturbed by pressure oscillations. The sinusoidal and distorted sinusoidal acoustic oscillations used for this study are the same as those characteristic of unstable rocket combustion. Qualitatively, the results are similar--the response of the system to pure sinusoidal acoustic vibration of the fluid surrounding the wire is small, even when the magnitude of the acoustic pressure is quite large; but the response can be increased by as much as an order of magnitude with respect to the sinusoidal case by the addition of distortion. The amplitude and phase of the distortion component, relative to the fundamental component, are the dominant factors in the increase in the response.

The measurement of ultrasound scattering from individual micron-sized objects and its application in single cell scattering.

PubMed

Falou, Omar; Rui, Min; El Kaffas, Ahmed; Kumaradas, J Carl; Kolios, Michael C

2010-08-01

The measurement of the ultrasound backscatter from individual micron-sized objects such as cells is required for various applications such as tissue characterization. However, performing such a measurement remains a challenge. For example, the presence of air bubbles in a suspension of cells during the measurements may lead to the incorrect interpretation of the acoustic signals. This work introduces a technique for measuring the ultrasound backscatter from individual micron-sized objects by combining a microinjection system with a co-registered optical microscope and an ultrasound imaging device. This allowed the measurement of the ultrasound backscatter response from a single object under optical microscope guidance. The optical and ultrasonic data were used to determine the size of the object and to deduce its backscatter responses, respectively. In order to calibrate the system, the backscatter frequency responses from polystyrene microspheres were measured and compared to theoretical predictions. A very good agreement was found between the measured backscatter responses of individual microspheres and theoretical predictions of an elastic sphere. The backscatter responses from single OCI-AML-5 cells were also investigated. It was found that the backscatter responses from AML cells are best modeled using the fluid sphere model. The advantages, limitations, and future applications of the developed technique are discussed.

The Economics of Root Distributions of Terrestrial Biomes in Response to Elevated CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, M.; Hedin, L. O. O.

2017-12-01

Belowground root distributions of terrestrial biomes are central to understanding soil biogeochemical processes and land carbon sink. Yet models are thus far not able to predict root distributions across plant functional groups and major biomes, limiting our ability to predict the response of land systems to elevated CO2 concentration. Of particular concern is the apparent lack of stimulation of the aboveground carbon sink despite 30% increase of atmospheric CO2 over the past half-century, and despite the clear acceleration of the land carbon sink over the same period. This apparent discrepancy in land ecosystem response has led to the proposition that changes in belowground root dynamics might be responsible for the overlooked land sink. We here present a new modeling approach for predicting the response of root biomass and soil carbon storage to increased CO2. Our approach considers the first-principle mechanisms and tradeoffs by which plants and plant roots invest carbon to gain belowground resources, in collaboration with distinct root symbioses. We allow plants to locally compete for nutrients, with the ability to allocate biomass at different depths in the soil profile. We parameterized our model using an unprecedented global dataset of root traits, and validated our biome-level predictions with a recently updated global root biomass database. Our results support the idea that plants "dig deeper" when exposed to increased CO2, and we offer an economic-based mechanism for predicting the plant root response across soil conditions, plant functional groups and major biomes. Our model also recreates the observed responses across a range of free-air CO2 enrichment experiments, including a distinct response between plants associated with ectomycorrhizal and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. Most broadly, our findings suggest that roots may be increasingly important in the land carbon sink, and call for a greater effort to quantify belowground responses to elevated atmospheric CO2.

Neural correlates of sensory prediction errors in monkeys: evidence for internal models of voluntary self-motion in the cerebellum.

PubMed

Cullen, Kathleen E; Brooks, Jessica X

2015-02-01

During self-motion, the vestibular system makes essential contributions to postural stability and self-motion perception. To ensure accurate perception and motor control, it is critical to distinguish between vestibular sensory inputs that are the result of externally applied motion (exafference) and that are the result of our own actions (reafference). Indeed, although the vestibular sensors encode vestibular afference and reafference with equal fidelity, neurons at the first central stage of sensory processing selectively encode vestibular exafference. The mechanism underlying this reafferent suppression compares the brain's motor-based expectation of sensory feedback with the actual sensory consequences of voluntary self-motion, effectively computing the sensory prediction error (i.e., exafference). It is generally thought that sensory prediction errors are computed in the cerebellum, yet it has been challenging to explicitly demonstrate this. We have recently addressed this question and found that deep cerebellar nuclei neurons explicitly encode sensory prediction errors during self-motion. Importantly, in everyday life, sensory prediction errors occur in response to changes in the effector or world (muscle strength, load, etc.), as well as in response to externally applied sensory stimulation. Accordingly, we hypothesize that altering the relationship between motor commands and the actual movement parameters will result in the updating in the cerebellum-based computation of exafference. If our hypothesis is correct, under these conditions, neuronal responses should initially be increased--consistent with a sudden increase in the sensory prediction error. Then, over time, as the internal model is updated, response modulation should decrease in parallel with a reduction in sensory prediction error, until vestibular reafference is again suppressed. The finding that the internal model predicting the sensory consequences of motor commands adapts for new relationships would have important implications for understanding how responses to passive stimulation endure despite the cerebellum's ability to learn new relationships between motor commands and sensory feedback.

Interaction between prenatal risk and infant parasympathetic and sympathetic stress reactivity predicts early aggression.

PubMed

Suurland, J; van der Heijden, K B; Huijbregts, S C J; van Goozen, S H M; Swaab, H

2017-09-01

Nonreciprocal action of the parasympathetic (PNS) and sympathetic (SNS) nervous systems, increases susceptibility to emotional and behavioral problems in children exposed to adversity. Little is known about the PNS and SNS in interaction with early adversity during infancy. Yet this is when the physiological systems involved in emotion regulation are emerging and presumably most responsive to environmental influences. We examined whether parasympathetic respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) and sympathetic pre-ejection period (PEP) response and recovery at six months, moderate the association between cumulative prenatal risk and physical aggression at 20 months (N=113). Prenatal risk predicted physical aggression, but only in infants exhibiting coactivation of PNS and SNS (i.e., increase in RSA and decrease in PEP) in response to stress. These findings indicate that coactivation of the PNS and SNS in combination with prenatal risk is a biological marker for the development of aggression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Consequences of ecological, evolutionary and biogeochemical uncertainty for coral reef responses to climatic stress.

PubMed

Mumby, Peter J; van Woesik, Robert

2014-05-19

Coral reefs are highly sensitive to the stress associated with greenhouse gas emissions, in particular ocean warming and acidification. While experiments show negative responses of most reef organisms to ocean warming, some autotrophs benefit from ocean acidification. Yet, we are uncertain of the response of coral reefs as systems. We begin by reviewing sources of uncertainty and complexity including the translation of physiological effects into demographic processes, indirect ecological interactions among species, the ability of coral reefs to modify their own chemistry, adaptation and trans-generational plasticity. We then incorporate these uncertainties into two simple qualitative models of a coral reef system under climate change. Some sources of uncertainty are far more problematic than others. Climate change is predicted to have an unambiguous negative effect on corals that is robust to several sources of uncertainty but sensitive to the degree of biogeochemical coupling between benthos and seawater. Macroalgal, zoanthid, and herbivorous fish populations are generally predicted to increase, but the ambiguity (confidence) of such predictions are sensitive to the source of uncertainty. For example, reversing the effect of climate-related stress on macroalgae from being positive to negative had no influence on system behaviour. By contrast, the system was highly sensitive to a change in the stress upon herbivorous fishes. Minor changes in competitive interactions had profound impacts on system behaviour, implying that the outcomes of mesocosm studies could be highly sensitive to the choice of taxa. We use our analysis to identify new hypotheses and suggest that the effects of climatic stress on coral reefs provide an exceptional opportunity to test emerging theories of ecological inheritance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive envelope protection methods for aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unnikrishnan, Suraj

Carefree handling refers to the ability of a pilot to operate an aircraft without the need to continuously monitor aircraft operating limits. At the heart of all carefree handling or maneuvering systems, also referred to as envelope protection systems, are algorithms and methods for predicting future limit violations. Recently, envelope protection methods that have gained more acceptance, translate limit proximity information to its equivalent in the control channel. Envelope protection algorithms either use very small prediction horizon or are static methods with no capability to adapt to changes in system configurations. Adaptive approaches maximizing prediction horizon such as dynamic trim, are only applicable to steady-state-response critical limit parameters. In this thesis, a new adaptive envelope protection method is developed that is applicable to steady-state and transient response critical limit parameters. The approach is based upon devising the most aggressive optimal control profile to the limit boundary and using it to compute control limits. Pilot-in-the-loop evaluations of the proposed approach are conducted at the Georgia Tech Carefree Maneuver lab for transient longitudinal hub moment limit protection. Carefree maneuvering is the dual of carefree handling in the realm of autonomous Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Designing a flight control system to fully and effectively utilize the operational flight envelope is very difficult. With the increasing role and demands for extreme maneuverability there is a need for developing envelope protection methods for autonomous UAVs. In this thesis, a full-authority automatic envelope protection method is proposed for limit protection in UAVs. The approach uses adaptive estimate of limit parameter dynamics and finite-time horizon predictions to detect impending limit boundary violations. Limit violations are prevented by treating the limit boundary as an obstacle and by correcting nominal control/command inputs to track a limit parameter safe-response profile near the limit boundary. The method is evaluated using software-in-the-loop and flight evaluations on the Georgia Tech unmanned rotorcraft platform---GTMax. The thesis also develops and evaluates an extension for calculating control margins based on restricting limit parameter response aggressiveness near the limit boundary.

A Relocatable Environmental Prediction System for Volcanic Ash Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, J.; Geiszler, D.

2009-12-01

Timeliness is an essential component for any system generating volcanic ash forecasts for aviation. Timeliness implies that the steps required for estimating the concentration of volcanic ash in the atmosphere are streamlined into a process that can accurately identify the volcano’s source function, utilize atmospheric conditions to predict the movement of the volcanic ash plume, and ultimately produce a volcanic ash forecast product in a useable format for aviation interests. During the past decade, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) has developed a suite of software integrated with the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) that is designed with a similar automated purpose in support of the Navy’s operational (24/7) schedule and diverse mission requirements worldwide. The COAMPS-OS® (On-demand System) provides web-based interfaces to COAMPS that allows Navy users to rapidly (in a few minutes) set up and start a new forecast in response to short-fused requests. A unique capability in COAMPS unlike many regional numerical weather prediction models is the option to initialize a volcanic ash plume and use the model’s full three-dimensional atmospheric grid (e.g. winds and precipitation) to predict the movement and concentration of the plume. This paper will describe the efforts to automate volcanic ash forecasts using COAMPS-OS including the specification of the source function, initialization and configuration of COAMPS, and generation of output products for aviation. This research is in response to requirements and funding by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the FAA. COAMPS® and COAMPS-OS® are registered trademarks of the Naval Research Laboratory.

System identification methods for aircraft flight control development and validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tischler, Mark B.

1995-01-01

System-identification methods compose a mathematical model, or series of models, from measurements of inputs and outputs of dynamic systems. The extracted models allow the characterization of the response of the overall aircraft or component subsystem behavior, such as actuators and on-board signal processing algorithms. This paper discusses the use of frequency-domain system-identification methods for the development and integration of aircraft flight-control systems. The extraction and analysis of models of varying complexity from nonparametric frequency-responses to transfer-functions and high-order state-space representations is illustrated using the Comprehensive Identification from FrEquency Responses (CIFER) system-identification facility. Results are presented for test data of numerous flight and simulation programs at the Ames Research Center including rotorcraft, fixed-wing aircraft, advanced short takeoff and vertical landing (ASTOVL), vertical/short takeoff and landing (V/STOL), tiltrotor aircraft, and rotor experiments in the wind tunnel. Excellent system characterization and dynamic response prediction is achieved for this wide class of systems. Examples illustrate the role of system-identification technology in providing an integrated flow of dynamic response data around the entire life-cycle of aircraft development from initial specifications, through simulation and bench testing, and into flight-test optimization.

Predictions of Cockpit Simulator Experimental Outcome Using System Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sorensen, J. A.; Goka, T.

1984-01-01

This study involved predicting the outcome of a cockpit simulator experiment where pilots used cockpit displays of traffic information (CDTI) to establish and maintain in-trail spacing behind a lead aircraft during approach. The experiments were run on the NASA Ames Research Center multicab cockpit simulator facility. Prior to the experiments, a mathematical model of the pilot/aircraft/CDTI flight system was developed which included relative in-trail and vertical dynamics between aircraft in the approach string. This model was used to construct a digital simulation of the string dynamics including response to initial position errors. The model was then used to predict the outcome of the in-trail following cockpit simulator experiments. Outcome included performance and sensitivity to different separation criteria. The experimental results were then used to evaluate the model and its prediction accuracy. Lessons learned in this modeling and prediction study are noted.

Predicting the persistence of coastal wetlands to global change stressors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guntenspergen, G.; McKee, K.; Cahoon, D.; Grace, J.; Megonigal, P.

2006-01-01

Despite progress toward understanding the response of coastal wetlands to increases in relative sea-level rise and an improved understanding of the effect of elevated CO2 on plant species allocation patterns, we are limited in our ability to predict the response of coastal wetlands to the effects associated with global change. Static simulations of the response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise using LIDAR and GIS lack the biological and physical feedback mechanisms present in such systems. Evidence from current research suggests that biotic processes are likely to have a major influence on marsh vulnerability to future accelerated rates of sea-level rise and the influence of biotic processes likely varies depending on hydrogeomorphic setting and external stressors. We have initiated a new research approach using a series of controlled mesocosm and field experiments, landscape scale studies, a comparative network of brackish coastal wetland monitoring sites and a suite of predictive models that address critical questions regarding the vulnerability of coastal brackish wetland systems to global change. Specifically, this research project evaluates the interaction of sea level rise and elevated CO2 concentrations with flooding, nutrient enrichment and disturbance effects. The study is organized in a hierarchical structure that links mesocosm, field, landscape and biogeographic levels so as to provide important new information that recognizes that coastal wetland systems respond to multiple interacting drivers and feedback effects controlling wetland surface elevation, habitat stability and ecosystem function. We also present a new statistical modelling technique (Structural Equation Modelling) that synthesizes and integrates our environmental and biotic measures in a predictive framework that forecasts ecosystem change and informs managers to consider adaptive shifts in strategies for the sustainable management of coastal wetlands.

Input-output characterization of an ultrasonic testing system by digital signal analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, J. H., Jr.; Lee, S. S.; Karagulle, H.

1986-01-01

Ultrasonic test system input-output characteristics were investigated by directly coupling the transmitting and receiving transducers face to face without a test specimen. Some of the fundamentals of digital signal processing were summarized. Input and output signals were digitized by using a digital oscilloscope, and the digitized data were processed in a microcomputer by using digital signal-processing techniques. The continuous-time test system was modeled as a discrete-time, linear, shift-invariant system. In estimating the unit-sample response and frequency response of the discrete-time system, it was necessary to use digital filtering to remove low-amplitude noise, which interfered with deconvolution calculations. A digital bandpass filter constructed with the assistance of a Blackman window and a rectangular time window were used. Approximations of the impulse response and the frequency response of the continuous-time test system were obtained by linearly interpolating the defining points of the unit-sample response and the frequency response of the discrete-time system. The test system behaved as a linear-phase bandpass filter in the frequency range 0.6 to 2.3 MHz. These frequencies were selected in accordance with the criterion that they were 6 dB below the maximum peak of the amplitude of the frequency response. The output of the system to various inputs was predicted and the results were compared with the corresponding measurements on the system.

Computational Systems Toxicology: recapitulating the logistical dynamics of cellular response networks in virtual tissue models (Eurotox_2017)

EPA Science Inventory

Translating in vitro data and biological information into a predictive model for human toxicity poses a significant challenge. This is especially true for complex adaptive systems such as the embryo where cellular dynamics are precisely orchestrated in space and time. Computer ce...

Quantifying uncertainties in streamflow predictions through signature based inference of hydrological model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenicia, Fabrizio; Reichert, Peter; Kavetski, Dmitri; Albert, Calro

2016-04-01

The calibration of hydrological models based on signatures (e.g. Flow Duration Curves - FDCs) is often advocated as an alternative to model calibration based on the full time series of system responses (e.g. hydrographs). Signature based calibration is motivated by various arguments. From a conceptual perspective, calibration on signatures is a way to filter out errors that are difficult to represent when calibrating on the full time series. Such errors may for example occur when observed and simulated hydrographs are shifted, either on the "time" axis (i.e. left or right), or on the "streamflow" axis (i.e. above or below). These shifts may be due to errors in the precipitation input (time or amount), and if not properly accounted in the likelihood function, may cause biased parameter estimates (e.g. estimated model parameters that do not reproduce the recession characteristics of a hydrograph). From a practical perspective, signature based calibration is seen as a possible solution for making predictions in ungauged basins. Where streamflow data are not available, it may in fact be possible to reliably estimate streamflow signatures. Previous research has for example shown how FDCs can be reliably estimated at ungauged locations based on climatic and physiographic influence factors. Typically, the goal of signature based calibration is not the prediction of the signatures themselves, but the prediction of the system responses. Ideally, the prediction of system responses should be accompanied by a reliable quantification of the associated uncertainties. Previous approaches for signature based calibration, however, do not allow reliable estimates of streamflow predictive distributions. Here, we illustrate how the Bayesian approach can be employed to obtain reliable streamflow predictive distributions based on signatures. A case study is presented, where a hydrological model is calibrated on FDCs and additional signatures. We propose an approach where the likelihood function for the signatures is derived from the likelihood for streamflow (rather than using an "ad-hoc" likelihood for the signatures as done in previous approaches). This likelihood is not easily tractable analytically and we therefore cannot apply "simple" MCMC methods. This numerical problem is solved using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Our result indicate that the proposed approach is suitable for producing reliable streamflow predictive distributions based on calibration to signature data. Moreover, our results provide indications on which signatures are more appropriate to represent the information content of the hydrograph.

Dynamic Response of Control Servo System Installed in NAES-Equipped SB2C-5 Airplane (BuAer No. 83135)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smaus, Louis H.; Stewart, Elwood C.

1950-01-01

Dynamic--response measurements for various conditions of displacement and rate signal input, sensitivity setting, and simulated hinge moment were made of the three control-surface servo systems of an NAES-equipped remote-controlled airplane while on the ground. The basic components of the servo systems are those of the General Electric Company type G-1 autopilot using electrical signal. sources, solenoid-operated valves, and hydraulic pistons. The test procedures and difficulties are discussed, Both frequency and transient-response data, are presented and comparisons are made. The constants describing the servo system, the undamped natural frequency, and the damping ratio, are determined by several methods. The response of the system with the addition of airframe rate signal is calculated. The transfer function of the elevator surface, linkage, and cable system is obtained. The agreement between various methods of measurement and calculation is considered very good. The data are complete enough and in such form that they may be used directly with the frequency-response data of an airplane to predict the stability of the autopilot-airplane combination.

Using landscape limnology to classify freshwater ecosystems for multi-ecosystem management and conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soranno, Patricia A.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Webster, Katherine E.; Bremigan, Mary T.; Wagner, Tyler; Stow, Craig A.

2010-01-01

Governmental entities are responsible for managing and conserving large numbers of lake, river, and wetland ecosystems that can be addressed only rarely on a case-by-case basis. We present a system for predictive classification modeling, grounded in the theoretical foundation of landscape limnology, that creates a tractable number of ecosystem classes to which management actions may be tailored. We demonstrate our system by applying two types of predictive classification modeling approaches to develop nutrient criteria for eutrophication management in 1998 north temperate lakes. Our predictive classification system promotes the effective management of multiple ecosystems across broad geographic scales by explicitly connecting management and conservation goals to the classification modeling approach, considering multiple spatial scales as drivers of ecosystem dynamics, and acknowledging the hierarchical structure of freshwater ecosystems. Such a system is critical for adaptive management of complex mosaics of freshwater ecosystems and for balancing competing needs for ecosystem services in a changing world.

Improved integrating-sphere throughput with a lens and nonimaging concentrator.

PubMed

Chenault, D B; Snail, K A; Hanssen, L M

1995-12-01

A reflectometer design utilizing an integrating sphere with a lens and nonimaging concentrator is described. Compared with previous designs where a collimator was used to restrict the detector field of view, the concentrator-lens combination significantly increases the throughput of the reflectometer. A procedure for designing lens-concentrators is given along with the results of parametric studies. The measured angular response of a lens-concentrator system is compared with ray-trace predictions and with the response of an ideal system.

Dynamic contrast-enhanced perfusion area-detector CT assessed with various mathematical models: Its capability for therapeutic outcome prediction for non-small cell lung cancer patients with chemoradiotherapy as compared with that of FDG-PET/CT.

PubMed

Ohno, Yoshiharu; Fujisawa, Yasuko; Koyama, Hisanobu; Kishida, Yuji; Seki, Shinichiro; Sugihara, Naoki; Yoshikawa, Takeshi

2017-01-01

To directly compare the capability of dynamic first-pass contrast-enhanced (CE-) perfusion area-detector CT (ADCT) and PET/CT for early prediction of treatment response, disease progression and overall survival of non-small cell carcinoma (NSCLC) patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. Fifty-three consecutive Stage IIIB NSCLC patients who had undergone PET/CT, dynamic first-pass CE-perfusion ADCT, chemoradiotherapy, and follow-up examination were enrolled in this study. They were divided into two groups: 1) complete or partial response (CR+PR) and 2) stable or progressive disease (SD+PD). Pulmonary arterial and systemic arterial perfusions and total perfusion were assessed at targeted lesions with the dual-input maximum slope method, permeability surface and distribution volume with the Patlak plot method, tumor perfusion with the single-input maximum slope method, and SUV max , and results were averaged to determine final values for each patient. Next, step-wise regression analysis was used to determine which indices were the most useful for predicting therapeutic effect. Finally, overall survival of responders and non-responders assessed by using the indices that had a significant effect on prediction of therapeutic outcome was statistically compared. The step-wise regression test showed that therapeutic effect (r 2 =0.63, p=0.01) was significantly affected by the following three factors in order of magnitude of impact: systemic arterial perfusion, total perfusion, and SUV max . Mean overall survival showed a significant difference for total perfusion (p=0.003) and systemic arterial perfusion (p=0.04). Dynamic first-pass CE-perfusion ADCT as well as PET/CT are useful for treatment response prediction in NSCLC patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improvement of Varioptic's liquid lens based on electrowetting: how to obtain a short response time and its application in the design of a high resolution iris biometric system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burger, Benjamin; Meimon, Serge C.; Petit, Cyril; Nguyen, Minh Chau

2015-02-01

This communication presents the results obtained for decreasing the response time of electrowetting-based real time focus correctors (liquid lenses). In order to provide a compact iris biometric system demonstrator, we have achieved a response time at 90% of 7.5 ms for a change in focalization from 0 diopter to 10 diopter with a liquid lens having an aperture of 1.9 mm. We have used a hydrodynamic fluid reorganization model to predict the features of these fast liquid lenses and evaluated the sensivity of the response time to the different conception parameters.

Observed Parent-Child Relationship Quality Predicts Antibody Response to Vaccination in Children

PubMed Central

O'Connor, Thomas G; Wang, Hongyue; Moynihan, Jan A; Wyman, Peter A.; Carnahan, Jennifer; Lofthus, Gerry; Quataert, Sally A.; Bowman, Melissa; Burke, Anne S.; Caserta, Mary T

2015-01-01

Background Quality of the parent-child relationship is a robust predictor of behavioral and emotional health for children and adolescents; the application to physical health is less clear. Methods We investigated the links between observed parent-child relationship quality in an interaction task and antibody response to meningococcal conjugate vaccine in a longitudinal study of 164 ambulatory 10-11 year-old children; additional analyses examine associations with cortisol reactivity, BMI, and somatic illness. Results Observed negative/conflict behavior in the interaction task predicted a less robust antibody response to meningococcal serotype C vaccine in the child over a 6 month-period, after controlling for socio-economic and other covariates. Observer rated interaction conflict also predicted increased cortisol reactivity following the interaction task and higher BMI, but these factors did not account for the link between relationship quality and antibody response. Conclusions The results begin to document the degree to which a major source of child stress exposure, parent-child relationship conflict, is associated with altered immune system development in children, and may constitute an important public health consideration. PMID:25862953

Cluster dynamics and cluster size distributions in systems of self-propelled particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peruani, F.; Schimansky-Geier, L.; Bär, M.

2010-12-01

Systems of self-propelled particles (SPP) interacting by a velocity alignment mechanism in the presence of noise exhibit rich clustering dynamics. Often, clusters are responsible for the distribution of (local) information in these systems. Here, we investigate the properties of individual clusters in SPP systems, in particular the asymmetric spreading behavior of clusters with respect to their direction of motion. In addition, we formulate a Smoluchowski-type kinetic model to describe the evolution of the cluster size distribution (CSD). This model predicts the emergence of steady-state CSDs in SPP systems. We test our theoretical predictions in simulations of SPP with nematic interactions and find that our simple kinetic model reproduces qualitatively the transition to aggregation observed in simulations.

Characterization of acute-on-chronic liver failure and prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism.

PubMed

Kim, Hwi Young; Chang, Young; Park, Jae Yong; Ahn, Hongkeun; Cho, Hyeki; Han, Seung Jun; Oh, Sohee; Kim, Donghee; Jung, Yong Jin; Kim, Byeong Gwan; Lee, Kook Lae; Kim, Won

2016-02-01

Alcoholic liver diseases often evolve to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which increases the risk of (multi-)organ failure and death. We investigated the development and characteristics of alcohol-related ACLF and evaluated prognostic scores for prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism. A total of 205 patients who were hospitalized with severe alcoholic liver disease were included in this retrospective cohort study, after excluding those with serious cardiovascular diseases, malignancy, or co-existing viral hepatitis. The Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium Organ Failure score was used in the diagnosis and grading of ACLF, and the CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) was used to predict mortality. Patients with ACLF had higher Maddrey discriminant function, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-sodium scores than those without ACLF. Infections were more frequently documented in patients with ACLF (33.3% vs 53.0%; P = 0.004). Predictive factors for ACLF development were systemic inflammatory response syndrome (odds ratio [OR], 2.239; P < 0.001), serum sodium level (OR, 0.939; P = 0.029), and neutrophil count (OR, 1.000; P = 0.021). For prediction of mortality at predefined time points (28-day and 90-day) in patients with ACLF, areas under the receiver-operating characteristic were significantly greater for the CLIF-C ACLFs than for Child-Pugh, MELD, and MELD-sodium scores. Infection and systemic inflammatory response syndrome play an important role in the development of alcohol-related ACLF in Asian patients with active alcoholism. The CLIF-C ACLFs may be more useful for predicting mortality in ACLF cases than liver-specific scoring systems. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Developmental assessment of the Fort St. Vrain version of the Composite HTGR Analysis Program (CHAP-2)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stroh, K.R.

1980-01-01

The Composite HTGR Analysis Program (CHAP) consists of a model-independent systems analysis mainframe named LASAN and model-dependent linked code modules, each representing a component, subsystem, or phenomenon of an HTGR plant. The Fort St. Vrain (FSV) version (CHAP-2) includes 21 coded modules that model the neutron kinetics and thermal response of the core; the thermal-hydraulics of the reactor primary coolant system, secondary steam supply system, and balance-of-plant; the actions of the control system and plant protection system; the response of the reactor building; and the relative hazard resulting from fuel particle failure. FSV steady-state and transient plant data are beingmore » used to partially verify the component modeling and dynamic smulation techniques used to predict plant response to postulated accident sequences.« less

EUTOS CML prognostic scoring system predicts ELN-based 'event-free survival' better than Euro/Hasford and Sokal systems in CML patients receiving front-line imatinib mesylate.

PubMed

Uz, Burak; Buyukasik, Yahya; Atay, Hilmi; Kelkitli, Engin; Turgut, Mehmet; Bektas, Ozlen; Eliacik, Eylem; Isik, Ayşe; Aksu, Salih; Goker, Hakan; Sayinalp, Nilgun; Ozcebe, Osman I; Haznedaroglu, Ibrahim C

2013-09-01

The validity of the three currently used chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) scoring systems (Sokal CML prognostic scoring system, Euro/Hasford CML scoring system, and the EUTOS CML prognostic scoring system) were compared in the CML patients receiving frontline imatinib mesylate. One hundred and fourty-three chronic phase CML patients (71 males, 72 females) taking imatinib as frontline treatment were included in the study. The median age was 44 (16-82) years. Median total and on-imatinib follow-up durations were 29 (3.8-130) months and 25 (3-125) months, respectively. The complete hematological response (CHR) rate at 3 months was 95%. The best cumulative complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) rate at 24 months was 79.6%. Euro/Hasford scoring system was well-correlated with both Sokal and EUTOS scores (r = 0.6, P < 0.001 and r = 0.455, P < 0.001). However, there was only a weak correlation between Sokal and EUTOS scores (r = 0.2, P = 0.03). The 5-year median estimated event-free survival for low and high EUTOS risk patients were 62.6 (25.7-99.5) and 15.3 (7.4-23.2) months, respectively (P < 0.001). This performance was better than Sokal (P = 0.3) and Euro/Hasford (P = 0.04) scoring systems. Overall survival and CCyR rates were also better predicted by the EUTOS score. EUTOS CML prognostic scoring system, which is the only prognostic system developed during the imatinib era, predicts European LeukemiaNet (ELN)-based event-free survival better than Euro/Hasford and Sokal systems in CML patients receiving frontline imatinib mesylate. This observation might have important clinical implications.

Definition of epitopes and antigens recognized by vaccinia specific immune responses: their conservation in variola virus sequences, and use as a model system to study complex pathogens.

PubMed

Sette, Alessandro; Grey, Howard; Oseroff, Carla; Peters, Bjoern; Moutaftsi, Magdalini; Crotty, Shane; Assarsson, Erika; Greenbaum, Jay; Kim, Yohan; Kolla, Ravi; Tscharke, David; Koelle, David; Johnson, R Paul; Blum, Janice; Head, Steven; Sidney, John

2009-12-30

In the last few years, a wealth of information has become available relating to the targets of vaccinia virus (VACV)-specific CD4(+) T cell, CD8(+) T cell and antibody responses. Due to the large size of its genome, encoding more than 200 different proteins, VACV represents a useful model system to study immunity to complex pathogens. Our data demonstrate that both cellular and humoral responses target a large number of antigens and epitopes. This broad spectrum of targets is detected in both mice and humans. CD4(+) T cell responses target late and structural antigens, while CD8(+) T cells preferentially recognize early antigens. While both CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cell responses target different types of antigens, the antigens recognized by T(H) cells are highly correlated with those recognized by antibody responses. We further show that protein abundance and antibody recognition can be used to predict antigens recognized by CD4(+) T cell responses, while early expression at the mRNA level predicts antigens targeted by CD8(+) T cells. Finally, we find that the vast majority of VACV epitopes are conserved in variola virus (VARV), thus suggesting that the epitopes defined herein also have relevance for the efficacy of VACV as a smallpox vaccine.

An integrated physiology model to study regional lung damage effects and the physiologic response

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background This work expands upon a previously developed exercise dynamic physiology model (DPM) with the addition of an anatomic pulmonary system in order to quantify the impact of lung damage on oxygen transport and physical performance decrement. Methods A pulmonary model is derived with an anatomic structure based on morphometric measurements, accounting for heterogeneous ventilation and perfusion observed experimentally. The model is incorporated into an existing exercise physiology model; the combined system is validated using human exercise data. Pulmonary damage from blast, blunt trauma, and chemical injury is quantified in the model based on lung fluid infiltration (edema) which reduces oxygen delivery to the blood. The pulmonary damage component is derived and calibrated based on published animal experiments; scaling laws are used to predict the human response to lung injury in terms of physical performance decrement. Results The augmented dynamic physiology model (DPM) accurately predicted the human response to hypoxia, altitude, and exercise observed experimentally. The pulmonary damage parameters (shunt and diffusing capacity reduction) were fit to experimental animal data obtained in blast, blunt trauma, and chemical damage studies which link lung damage to lung weight change; the model is able to predict the reduced oxygen delivery in damage conditions. The model accurately estimates physical performance reduction with pulmonary damage. Conclusions We have developed a physiologically-based mathematical model to predict performance decrement endpoints in the presence of thoracic damage; simulations can be extended to estimate human performance and escape in extreme situations. PMID:25044032

Mathematics as a conduit for translational research in post-traumatic osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Ayati, Bruce P; Kapitanov, Georgi I; Coleman, Mitchell C; Anderson, Donald D; Martin, James A

2017-03-01

Biomathematical models offer a powerful method of clarifying complex temporal interactions and the relationships among multiple variables in a system. We present a coupled in silico biomathematical model of articular cartilage degeneration in response to impact and/or aberrant loading such as would be associated with injury to an articular joint. The model incorporates fundamental biological and mechanical information obtained from explant and small animal studies to predict post-traumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA) progression, with an eye toward eventual application in human patients. In this sense, we refer to the mathematics as a "conduit of translation." The new in silico framework presented in this paper involves a biomathematical model for the cellular and biochemical response to strains computed using finite element analysis. The model predicts qualitative responses presently, utilizing system parameter values largely taken from the literature. To contribute to accurate predictions, models need to be accurately parameterized with values that are based on solid science. We discuss a parameter identification protocol that will enable us to make increasingly accurate predictions of PTOA progression using additional data from smaller scale explant and small animal assays as they become available. By distilling the data from the explant and animal assays into parameters for biomathematical models, mathematics can translate experimental data to clinically relevant knowledge. © 2016 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res 35:566-572, 2017. © 2016 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dynamics of a linear system coupled to a chain of light nonlinear oscillators analyzed through a continuous approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charlemagne, S.; Ture Savadkoohi, A.; Lamarque, C.-H.

2018-07-01

The continuous approximation is used in this work to describe the dynamics of a nonlinear chain of light oscillators coupled to a linear main system. A general methodology is applied to an example where the chain has local nonlinear restoring forces. The slow invariant manifold is detected at fast time scale. At slow time scale, equilibrium and singular points are sought around this manifold in order to predict periodic regimes and strongly modulated responses of the system. Analytical predictions are in good accordance with numerical results and represent a potent tool for designing nonlinear chains for passive control purposes.

Forecasting system predicts presence of sea nettles in Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Christopher W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Li, Zhen; Decker, Mary Beth; Gross, Thomas F.; Purcell, Jennifer E.; Wang, Harry V.

Outbreaks of noxious biota, which occur in both aquatic and terrestrial systems, can have considerable negative economic impacts. For example, an increasing frequency of harmful algal blooms worldwide has negatively affected the tourism industry in many regions. Such impacts could be mitigated if the conditions that give rise to these outbreaks were known and could be monitored. Recent advances in technology and communications allow us to continuously measure and model many environmental factors that are responsible for outbreaks of certain noxious organisms. A new prototype ecological forecasting system predicts the likelihood of occurrence of the sea nettle (Chrysaora quinquecirrha), a stinging jellyfish, in the Chesapeake Bay.

Field camera measurements of gradient and shim impulse responses using frequency sweeps.

PubMed

Vannesjo, S Johanna; Dietrich, Benjamin E; Pavan, Matteo; Brunner, David O; Wilm, Bertram J; Barmet, Christoph; Pruessmann, Klaas P

2014-08-01

Applications of dynamic shimming require high field fidelity, and characterizing the shim field dynamics is therefore necessary. Modeling the system as linear and time-invariant, the purpose of this work was to measure the impulse response function with optimal sensitivity. Frequency-swept pulses as inputs are analyzed theoretically, showing that the sweep speed is a key factor for the measurement sensitivity. By adjusting the sweep speed it is possible to achieve any prescribed noise profile in the measured system response. Impulse response functions were obtained for the third-order shim system of a 7 Tesla whole-body MR scanner. Measurements of the shim fields were done with a dynamic field camera, yielding also cross-term responses. The measured shim impulse response functions revealed system characteristics such as response bandwidth, eddy currents and specific resonances, possibly of mechanical origin. Field predictions based on the shim characterization were shown to agree well with directly measured fields, also in the cross-terms. Frequency sweeps provide a flexible tool for shim or gradient system characterization. This may prove useful for applications involving dynamic shimming by yielding accurate estimates of the shim fields and a basis for setting shim pre-emphasis. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cell density dependence of Microcystis aeruginosa responses to copper algaecide concentrations: Implications for microcystin-LR release.

PubMed

Kinley, Ciera M; Iwinski, Kyla J; Hendrikse, Maas; Geer, Tyler D; Rodgers, John H

2017-11-01

Along with mechanistic models, predictions of exposure-response relationships for copper are often derived from laboratory toxicity experiments with standardized experimental exposures and conditions. For predictions of copper toxicity to algae, cell density is a critical factor often overlooked. For pulse exposures of copper-based algaecides in aquatic systems, cell density can significantly influence copper sorbed by the algal population, and consequent responses. A cyanobacterium, Microcystis aeruginosa, was exposed to a copper-based algaecide over a range of cell densities to model the density-dependence of exposures, and effects on microcystin-LR (MC-LR) release. Copper exposure concentrations were arrayed to result in a gradient of MC-LR release, and masses of copper sorbed to algal populations were measured following exposures. While copper exposure concentrations eliciting comparable MC-LR release ranged an order of magnitude (24-h EC50s 0.03-0.3mg Cu/L) among cell densities of 10 6 through 10 7 cells/mL, copper doses (mg Cu/mg algae) were similar (24-h EC50s 0.005-0.006mg Cu/mg algae). Comparisons of MC-LR release as a function of copper exposure concentrations and doses provided a metric of the density dependence of algal responses in the context of copper-based algaecide applications. Combined with estimates of other site-specific factors (e.g. water characteristics) and fate processes (e.g. dilution and dispersion, sorption to organic matter and sediments), measuring exposure-response relationships for specific cell densities can refine predictions for in situ exposures and algal responses. These measurements can in turn decrease the likelihood of amending unnecessary copper concentrations to aquatic systems, and minimize risks for non-target aquatic organisms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the Reliability of Emergency Response Systems for Large-Scale Incident Operations

PubMed Central

Jackson, Brian A.; Faith, Kay Sullivan; Willis, Henry H.

2012-01-01

Abstract The ability to measure emergency preparedness—to predict the likely performance of emergency response systems in future events—is critical for policy analysis in homeland security. Yet it remains difficult to know how prepared a response system is to deal with large-scale incidents, whether it be a natural disaster, terrorist attack, or industrial or transportation accident. This research draws on the fields of systems analysis and engineering to apply the concept of system reliability to the evaluation of emergency response systems. The authors describe a method for modeling an emergency response system; identifying how individual parts of the system might fail; and assessing the likelihood of each failure and the severity of its effects on the overall response effort. The authors walk the reader through two applications of this method: a simplified example in which responders must deliver medical treatment to a certain number of people in a specified time window, and a more complex scenario involving the release of chlorine gas. The authors also describe an exploratory analysis in which they parsed a set of after-action reports describing real-world incidents, to demonstrate how this method can be used to quantitatively analyze data on past response performance. The authors conclude with a discussion of how this method of measuring emergency response system reliability could inform policy discussion of emergency preparedness, how system reliability might be improved, and the costs of doing so. PMID:28083267

Advances on plant-pathogen interactions from molecular toward systems biology perspectives.

PubMed

Peyraud, Rémi; Dubiella, Ullrich; Barbacci, Adelin; Genin, Stéphane; Raffaele, Sylvain; Roby, Dominique

2017-05-01

In the past 2 decades, progress in molecular analyses of the plant immune system has revealed key elements of a complex response network. Current paradigms depict the interaction of pathogen-secreted molecules with host target molecules leading to the activation of multiple plant response pathways. Further research will be required to fully understand how these responses are integrated in space and time, and exploit this knowledge in agriculture. In this review, we highlight systems biology as a promising approach to reveal properties of molecular plant-pathogen interactions and predict the outcome of such interactions. We first illustrate a few key concepts in plant immunity with a network and systems biology perspective. Next, we present some basic principles of systems biology and show how they allow integrating multiomics data and predict cell phenotypes. We identify challenges for systems biology of plant-pathogen interactions, including the reconstruction of multiscale mechanistic models and the connection of host and pathogen models. Finally, we outline studies on resistance durability through the robustness of immune system networks, the identification of trade-offs between immunity and growth and in silico plant-pathogen co-evolution as exciting perspectives in the field. We conclude that the development of sophisticated models of plant diseases incorporating plant, pathogen and climate properties represent a major challenge for agriculture in the future. © 2016 The Authors. The Plant Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Society for Experimental Biology.

Inelastic Deformation of Metal Matrix Composites. Part 1; Plasticity and Damage Mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Majumdar, B. S.; Newaz, G. M.

1992-01-01

The deformation mechanisms of a Ti 15-3/SCS6 (SiC fiber) metal matrix composite (MMC) were investigated using a combination of mechanical measurements and microstructural analysis. The objectives were to evaluate the contributions of plasticity and damage to the overall inelastic response, and to confirm the mechanisms by rigorous microstructural evaluations. The results of room temperature experiments performed on 0 degree and 90 degree systems primarily are reported in this report. Results of experiments performed on other laminate systems and at high temperatures will be provided in a forthcoming report. Inelastic deformation of the 0 degree MMC (fibers parallel to load direction) was dominated by the plasticity of the matrix. In contrast, inelastic deformations of the 90 degree composite (fibers perpendicular to loading direction) occurred by both damage and plasticity. The predictions of a continuum elastic plastic model were compared with experimental data. The model was adequate for predicting the 0 degree response; however, it was inadequate for predicting the 90 degree response largely because it neglected damage. The importance of validating constitutive models using a combination of mechanical measurements and microstructural analysis is pointed out. The deformation mechanisms, and the likely sequence of events associated with the inelastic deformation of MMCs, are indicated in this paper.

Host and parasite thermal ecology jointly determine the effect of climate warming on epidemic dynamics.

PubMed

Gehman, Alyssa-Lois M; Hall, Richard J; Byers, James E

2018-01-23

Host-parasite systems have intricately coupled life cycles, but each interactor can respond differently to changes in environmental variables like temperature. Although vital to predicting how parasitism will respond to climate change, thermal responses of both host and parasite in key traits affecting infection dynamics have rarely been quantified. Through temperature-controlled experiments on an ectothermic host-parasite system, we demonstrate an offset in the thermal optima for survival of infected and uninfected hosts and parasite production. We combine experimentally derived thermal performance curves with field data on seasonal host abundance and parasite prevalence to parameterize an epidemiological model and forecast the dynamical responses to plausible future climate-warming scenarios. In warming scenarios within the coastal southeastern United States, the model predicts sharp declines in parasite prevalence, with local parasite extinction occurring with as little as 2 °C warming. The northern portion of the parasite's current range could experience local increases in transmission, but assuming no thermal adaptation of the parasite, we find no evidence that the parasite will expand its range northward under warming. This work exemplifies that some host populations may experience reduced parasitism in a warming world and highlights the need to measure host and parasite thermal performance to predict infection responses to climate change.

Predicting operator workload during system design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aldrich, Theodore B.; Szabo, Sandra M.

1988-01-01

A workload prediction methodology was developed in response to the need to measure workloads associated with operation of advanced aircraft. The application of the methodology will involve: (1) conducting mission/task analyses of critical mission segments and assigning estimates of workload for the sensory, cognitive, and psychomotor workload components of each task identified; (2) developing computer-based workload prediction models using the task analysis data; and (3) exercising the computer models to produce predictions of crew workload under varying automation and/or crew configurations. Critical issues include reliability and validity of workload predictors and selection of appropriate criterion measures.

Hybrid experimental/analytical models of structural dynamics - Creation and use for predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balmes, Etienne

1993-01-01

An original complete methodology for the construction of predictive models of damped structural vibrations is introduced. A consistent definition of normal and complex modes is given which leads to an original method to accurately identify non-proportionally damped normal mode models. A new method to create predictive hybrid experimental/analytical models of damped structures is introduced, and the ability of hybrid models to predict the response to system configuration changes is discussed. Finally a critical review of the overall methodology is made by application to the case of the MIT/SERC interferometer testbed.

Development of a software based automatic exposure control system for use in image guided radiation therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morton, Daniel R.

Modern image guided radiation therapy involves the use of an isocentrically mounted imaging system to take radiographs of a patient's position before the start of each treatment. Image guidance helps to minimize errors associated with a patients setup, but the radiation dose received by patients from imaging must be managed to ensure no additional risks. The Varian On-Board Imager (OBI) (Varian Medical Systems, Inc., Palo Alto, CA) does not have an automatic exposure control system and therefore requires exposure factors to be manually selected. Without patient specific exposure factors, images may become saturated and require multiple unnecessary exposures. A software based automatic exposure control system has been developed to predict optimal, patient specific exposure factors. The OBI system was modelled in terms of the x-ray tube output and detector response in order to calculate the level of detector saturation for any exposure situation. Digitally reconstructed radiographs are produced via ray-tracing through the patients' volumetric datasets that are acquired for treatment planning. The ray-trace determines the attenuation of the patient and subsequent x-ray spectra incident on the imaging detector. The resulting spectra are used in the detector response model to determine the exposure levels required to minimize detector saturation. Images calculated for various phantoms showed good agreement with the images that were acquired on the OBI. Overall, regions of detector saturation were accurately predicted and the detector response for non-saturated regions in images of an anthropomorphic phantom were calculated to generally be within 5 to 10 % of the measured values. Calculations were performed on patient data and found similar results as the phantom images, with the calculated images being able to determine detector saturation with close agreement to images that were acquired during treatment. Overall, it was shown that the system model and calculation method could potentially be used to predict patients' exposure factors before their treatment begins, thus preventing the need for multiple exposures.

Dynamic characteristic of electromechanical coupling effects in motor-gear system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Wenyu; Qin, Datong; Wang, Yawen; Lim, Teik C.

2018-06-01

Dynamic characteristics of an electromechanical model which combines a nonlinear permeance network model (PNM) of a squirrel-cage induction motor and a coupled lateral-torsional dynamic model of a planetary geared rotor system is analyzed in this study. The simulations reveal the effects of internal excitations or parameters like machine slotting, magnetic saturation, time-varying mesh stiffness and shaft stiffness on the system dynamics. The responses of the electromechanical system with PNM motor model are compared with those responses of the system with dynamic motor model. The electromechanical coupling due to the interactions between the motor and gear system are studied. Furthermore, the frequency analysis of the electromechanical system dynamic characteristics predicts an efficient way to detect work condition of unsymmetrical voltage sag.

A comparative study of the effects of cone-plate and parallel-plate geometries on rheological properties under oscillatory shear flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Hyeong Yong; Salehiyan, Reza; Li, Xiaolei; Lee, Seung Hak; Hyun, Kyu

2017-11-01

In this study, the effects of cone-plate (C/P) and parallel-plate (P/P) geometries were investigated on the rheological properties of various complex fluids, e.g. single-phase (polymer melts and solutions) and multiphase systems (polymer blend and nanocomposite, and suspension). Small amplitude oscillatory shear (SAOS) tests were carried out to compare linear rheological responses while nonlinear responses were compared using large amplitude oscillatory shear (LAOS) tests at different frequencies. Moreover, Fourier-transform (FT)-rheology method was used to analyze the nonlinear responses under LAOS flow. Experimental results were compared with predictions obtained by single-point correction and shear rate correction. For all systems, SAOS data measured by C/P and P/P coincide with each other, but results showed discordance between C/P and P/P measurements in the nonlinear regime. For all systems except xanthan gum solutions, first-harmonic moduli were corrected using a single horizontal shift factor, whereas FT rheology-based nonlinear parameters ( I 3/1, I 5/1, Q 3, and Q 5) were corrected using vertical shift factors that are well predicted by single-point correction. Xanthan gum solutions exhibited anomalous corrections. Their first-harmonic Fourier moduli were superposed using a horizontal shift factor predicted by shear rate correction applicable to highly shear thinning fluids. The distinguished corrections were observed for FT rheology-based nonlinear parameters. I 3/1 and I 5/1 were superposed by horizontal shifts, while the other systems displayed vertical shifts of I 3/1 and I 5/1. Q 3 and Q 5 of xanthan gum solutions were corrected using both horizontal and vertical shift factors. In particular, the obtained vertical shift factors for Q 3 and Q 5 were twice as large as predictions made by single-point correction. Such larger values are rationalized by the definitions of Q 3 and Q 5. These results highlight the significance of horizontal shift corrections in nonlinear oscillatory shear data.

Effects of dynamic long-period ocean tides on changes in earth's rotation rate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nam, Young; Dickman, S. R.

1990-01-01

As a generalization of the zonal response coefficient first introduced by Agnew and Farrell (1978), the zonal response function kappa of the solid earth-ocean system is defined as the ratio, in the frequency domain, of the tidal change in earth's rotation rate to the tide-generating potential. Amplitudes and phases of kappa for the monthly, fortnightly, and nine-day lunar tides are estimated from 2 1/2 years of VLBI UT1 observations, corrected for atmospheric angular momentum effects using NMC wind and pressure series. Using the dynamic ocean tide model of Dickman (1988, 1989), amplitudes and phases of kappa for an elastic earth-ocean system are predicted. The predictions confirm earlier results which found that dynamic effects of the longer-period ocean tides reduce the amplitude of kappa by about 1 percent.

Bistable energy harvesting enhancement with an auxiliary linear oscillator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harne, R. L.; Thota, M.; Wang, K. W.

2013-12-01

Recent work has indicated that linear vibrational energy harvesters with an appended degree-of-freedom (DOF) may be advantageous for introducing new dynamic forms to extend the operational bandwidth. Given the additional interest in bistable harvester designs, which exhibit a propitious snap through effect from one stable state to the other, it is a logical extension to explore the influence of an added DOF to a bistable system. However, bistable snap through is not a resonant phenomenon, which tempers the presumption that the dynamics induced by an additional DOF on bistable designs would inherently be beneficial as for linear systems. This paper presents two analytical formulations to assess the fundamental and superharmonic steady-state dynamics of an excited bistable energy harvester to which is attached an auxiliary linear oscillator. From an energy harvesting perspective, the model predicts that the additional linear DOF uniformly amplifies the bistable harvester response magnitude and generated power for excitation frequencies less than the attachment’s resonance while improved power density spans a bandwidth below this frequency. Analyses predict bandwidths having co-existent responses composed of a unique proportion of fundamental and superharmonic dynamics. Experiments validate key analytical predictions and observe the ability for the coupled system to develop an advantageous multi-harmonic interwell response when the initial conditions are insufficient for continuous high-energy orbit at the excitation frequency. Overall, the addition of an auxiliary linear oscillator to a bistable harvester is found to be an effective means of enhancing the energy harvesting performance and robustness.

Dissociable Learning Processes Underlie Human Pain Conditioning.

PubMed

Zhang, Suyi; Mano, Hiroaki; Ganesh, Gowrishankar; Robbins, Trevor; Seymour, Ben

2016-01-11

Pavlovian conditioning underlies many aspects of pain behavior, including fear and threat detection [1], escape and avoidance learning [2], and endogenous analgesia [3]. Although a central role for the amygdala is well established [4], both human and animal studies implicate other brain regions in learning, notably ventral striatum and cerebellum [5]. It remains unclear whether these regions make different contributions to a single aversive learning process or represent independent learning mechanisms that interact to generate the expression of pain-related behavior. We designed a human parallel aversive conditioning paradigm in which different Pavlovian visual cues probabilistically predicted thermal pain primarily to either the left or right arm and studied the acquisition of conditioned Pavlovian responses using combined physiological recordings and fMRI. Using computational modeling based on reinforcement learning theory, we found that conditioning involves two distinct types of learning process. First, a non-specific "preparatory" system learns aversive facial expressions and autonomic responses such as skin conductance. The associated learning signals-the learned associability and prediction error-were correlated with fMRI brain responses in amygdala-striatal regions, corresponding to the classic aversive (fear) learning circuit. Second, a specific lateralized system learns "consummatory" limb-withdrawal responses, detectable with electromyography of the arm to which pain is predicted. Its related learned associability was correlated with responses in ipsilateral cerebellar cortex, suggesting a novel computational role for the cerebellum in pain. In conclusion, our results show that the overall phenotype of conditioned pain behavior depends on two dissociable reinforcement learning circuits. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

On Predictive Understanding of Extreme Events: Pattern Recognition Approach; Prediction Algorithms; Applications to Disaster Preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Soloviev, A.; Gabrielov, A.

2011-12-01

We describe a uniform approach to predicting different extreme events, also known as critical phenomena, disasters, or crises. The following types of such events are considered: strong earthquakes; economic recessions (their onset and termination); surges of unemployment; surges of crime; and electoral changes of the governing party. A uniform approach is possible due to the common feature of these events: each of them is generated by a certain hierarchical dissipative complex system. After a coarse-graining, such systems exhibit regular behavior patterns; we look among them for "premonitory patterns" that signal the approach of an extreme event. We introduce methodology, based on the optimal control theory, assisting disaster management in choosing optimal set of disaster preparedness measures undertaken in response to a prediction. Predictions with their currently realistic (limited) accuracy do allow preventing a considerable part of the damage by a hierarchy of preparedness measures. Accuracy of prediction should be known, but not necessarily high.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Susandi, Armi, E-mail: armi@meteo.itb.ac.id; Tamamadin, Mamad, E-mail: mamadtama@meteo.itb.ac.id; Djamal, Erizal, E-mail: erizal-jamal@yahoo.com

This paper describes information system of rice planting calendar to help farmers in determining the time for rice planting. The information includes rainfall prediction in ten days (dasarian) scale overlaid to map of rice field to produce map of rice planting in village level. The rainfall prediction was produced by stochastic modeling using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and Non-Linier Least Squares methods to fit the curve of function to the rainfall data. In this research, the Fourier series has been modified become non-linear function to follow the recent characteristics of rainfall that is non stationary. The results have been alsomore » validated in 4 steps, including R-Square, RMSE, R-Skill, and comparison with field data. The development of information system (cyber extension) provides information such as rainfall prediction, prediction of the planting time, and interactive space for farmers to respond to the information submitted. Interfaces for interactive response will be critical to the improvement of prediction accuracy of information, both rainfall and planting time. The method used to get this information system includes mapping on rice planting prediction, converting the format file, developing database system, developing website, and posting website. Because of this map was overlaid with the Google map, the map files must be converted to the .kml file format.« less

A systems approach to integrative biology: an overview of statistical methods to elucidate association and architecture.

PubMed

Ciaccio, Mark F; Finkle, Justin D; Xue, Albert Y; Bagheri, Neda

2014-07-01

An organism's ability to maintain a desired physiological response relies extensively on how cellular and molecular signaling networks interpret and react to environmental cues. The capacity to quantitatively predict how networks respond to a changing environment by modifying signaling regulation and phenotypic responses will help inform and predict the impact of a changing global enivronment on organisms and ecosystems. Many computational strategies have been developed to resolve cue-signal-response networks. However, selecting a strategy that answers a specific biological question requires knowledge both of the type of data being collected, and of the strengths and weaknesses of different computational regimes. We broadly explore several computational approaches, and we evaluate their accuracy in predicting a given response. Specifically, we describe how statistical algorithms can be used in the context of integrative and comparative biology to elucidate the genomic, proteomic, and/or cellular networks responsible for robust physiological response. As a case study, we apply this strategy to a dataset of quantitative levels of protein abundance from the mussel, Mytilus galloprovincialis, to uncover the temperature-dependent signaling network. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Physiological stress responses predict sexual functioning and satisfaction differently in women who have and have not been sexually abused in childhood

PubMed Central

Meston, Cindy M.; Lorenz, Tierney A.

2012-01-01

Physiological responses to sexual stimuli may contribute to the increased rate of sexual problems seen in women with childhood sexual abuse (CSA) histories. We compared two physiological stress responses as predictors of sexual function and satisfaction, sympathetic nervous system (SNS) activation and cortisol in women with (CSA, N = 136) and without CSA histories (NSA, N = 102). In CSA survivors, cortisol response to sexual stimuli did not significantly predict sexual functioning; however, in NSA women, cortisol increases were associated with poorer sexual functioning, and decreases with higher functioning. For women with CSA histories, lower SNS activity was associated with poorer sexual functioning. For CSA survivors with low lifetime trauma, lower SNS activity was associated with higher sexual satisfaction; for women with high lifetime trauma, the reverse was true. Decreased SNS activity during sexual stimuli predicted higher sexual functioning in NSA women with low lifetime exposure to traumatic events, but lower sexual functioning in those with high exposure. Differences between women with and without CSA histories in the association between cortisol and SNS response and sexual functioning and satisfaction suggests that CSA causes disruptions in both short and long-term stress responses to sexual stimuli that perpetuate into adulthood. PMID:24748915

Chlorine truck attack consequences and mitigation.

PubMed

Barrett, Anthony Michael; Adams, Peter J

2011-08-01

We develop and apply an integrated modeling system to estimate fatalities from intentional release of 17 tons of chlorine from a tank truck in a generic urban area. A public response model specifies locations and actions of the populace. A chemical source term model predicts initial characteristics of the chlorine vapor and aerosol cloud. An atmospheric dispersion model predicts cloud spreading and movement. A building air exchange model simulates movement of chlorine from outdoors into buildings at each location. A dose-response model translates chlorine exposures into predicted fatalities. Important parameters outside defender control include wind speed, atmospheric stability class, amount of chlorine released, and dose-response model parameters. Without fast and effective defense response, with 2.5 m/sec wind and stability class F, we estimate approximately 4,000 (half within ∼10 minutes) to 30,000 fatalities (half within ∼20 minutes), depending on dose-response model. Although we assume 7% of the population was outdoors, they represent 60-90% of fatalities. Changing weather conditions result in approximately 50-90% lower total fatalities. Measures such as sheltering in place, evacuation, and use of security barriers and cryogenic storage can reduce fatalities, sometimes by 50% or more, depending on response speed and other factors. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Observations and modelling of shoreline and multiple sandbar behaviour on a high-energy meso-tidal beach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Splinter, Kristen D.; Gonzalez, Maria V. G.; Oltman-Shay, Joan; Rutten, Jantien; Holman, Robert

2018-05-01

This contribution describes 10 years of observed sandbar and shoreline cross-shore position variability at a meso-tidal, high energy, multiple sandbar beach. To examine relationships between the temporal variability in shoreline/sandbar position with offshore wave forcing, a simple equilibrium model is applied to these data. The analysis presented in this paper shows that the equilibrium model is skilled at predicting the alongshore-averaged, time-varying position of the shoreline (R = 0.82) and the outer sandbar position (R = 0.75), suggesting that these end members of the nearshore sediment system are most strongly influenced by offshore wave forcing in a predictable, equilibrium-forced manner. The middle and inner bars are hypothesized to act as sediment transport pathways between the shoreline and the outer bar. Prediction of these more transient features by an equilibrium model was less skilful. Model coefficients reveal that these two end members (outer bar and shoreline) in the sediment system act in opposite directions to changes in the annual offshore wave forcing. During high wave events, sediment is removed from the shoreline and deposited in the nearshore sediment system with simultaneous landward retreat of the shoreline and offshore migration of the outer sandbar. While both end member features have cycles at annual and inter-annual scales, their respective equilibrium response factor differs by almost a factor of 10, with the shoreline responding around an inter-annual mean (ϕ = 1000 days) and the outer bar responding around a seasonal mean (ϕ = 170 days). The model accurately predicts shoreline response to both mild (e.g. 2004/05, 2008/09) and extreme (e.g. 2005/06, 2009/10) winter storms, as well as their summer recovery. The more mobile and dynamic outer sandbar is well-modelled during typical winters. Summer onshore sandbar migration of the outer bar in 2005 and 2006 is under-predicted as the system transitioned between a triple (winter) and double (summer) sandbar system. The changing of the number of bars present in the system is something that this simple model cannot predict. Analysis of the data suggests that this multi-bar system adjusts its cross-shore seasonal movement when there is a significant change in the sediment supply to the system (e.g., nourishment projects, severe storms).

[Identification of Circulating Tumor Cell（CTC）in Breast Cancer Patients Using a Newly Established CTC Detecting System].

PubMed

Nagata, Takuya; Ohnaga, Takashi; Lu, Xiao Long; Watanabe, Toru; Hirano, Katsuhisa; Okumura, Tomoyuki; Tsukada, Kazuhiro

2015-10-01

We developed a new circulating tumor cell (CTC) chip in order to identify CTCs in the peripheral blood of cancer patients. In this study, we aimed to identify CTCs in the blood of breast cancer patients by using this CTC detecting system. In addition, we used this system to evaluate the response to anticancer agents. We were able to identify CTCs in 5 of 6 patients. In addition, the system showed that the number of CTCs had decreased after chemotherapy. Thus, the CTC detecting system was useful in the identification of CTCs in the breast cancer patients and in the early prediction of response to anticancer agents.

The dopamine motive system: implications for drug and food addiction.

PubMed

Volkow, Nora D; Wise, Roy A; Baler, Ruben

2017-11-16

Behaviours such as eating, copulating, defending oneself or taking addictive drugs begin with a motivation to initiate the behaviour. Both this motivational drive and the behaviours that follow are influenced by past and present experience with the reinforcing stimuli (such as drugs or energy-rich foods) that increase the likelihood and/or strength of the behavioural response (such as drug taking or overeating). At a cellular and circuit level, motivational drive is dependent on the concentration of extrasynaptic dopamine present in specific brain areas such as the striatum. Cues that predict a reinforcing stimulus also modulate extrasynaptic dopamine concentrations, energizing motivation. Repeated administration of the reinforcer (drugs, energy-rich foods) generates conditioned associations between the reinforcer and the predicting cues, which is accompanied by downregulated dopaminergic response to other incentives and downregulated capacity for top-down self-regulation, facilitating the emergence of impulsive and compulsive responses to food or drug cues. Thus, dopamine contributes to addiction and obesity through its differentiated roles in reinforcement, motivation and self-regulation, referred to here as the 'dopamine motive system', which, if compromised, can result in increased, habitual and inflexible responding. Thus, interventions to rebalance the dopamine motive system might have therapeutic potential for obesity and addiction.

Quantification of shear stress in a meandering native topographic channel using a physical hydraulic model

Treesearch

Michael E. Ursic; Christopher I. Thornton; Amanda L. Cox; Steven R. Abt

2012-01-01

Fluvial systems respond to changes in boundary conditions in order to sustain the flow and sediment supplied to the system. Local channel responses are typically difficult to predict due to possible affects from upstream, downstream, or local boundary conditions that cause changes in channel or planform geometry. Changes to the system can threaten riverside...

Impact of Pilot Delay and Non-Responsiveness on the Safety Performance of Airborne Separation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Consiglio, Maria; Hoadley, Sherwood; Wing, David; Baxley, Brian; Allen, Bonnie Danette

2008-01-01

Assessing the safety effects of prediction errors and uncertainty on automationsupported functions in the Next Generation Air Transportation System concept of operations is of foremost importance, particularly safety critical functions such as separation that involve human decision-making. Both ground-based and airborne, the automation of separation functions must be designed to account for, and mitigate the impact of, information uncertainty and varying human response. This paper describes an experiment that addresses the potential impact of operator delay when interacting with separation support systems. In this study, we evaluated an airborne separation capability operated by a simulated pilot. The experimental runs are part of the Safety Performance of Airborne Separation (SPAS) experiment suite that examines the safety implications of prediction errors and system uncertainties on airborne separation assistance systems. Pilot actions required by the airborne separation automation to resolve traffic conflicts were delayed within a wide range, varying from five to 240 seconds while a percentage of randomly selected pilots were programmed to completely miss the conflict alerts and therefore take no action. Results indicate that the strategicAirborne Separation Assistance System (ASAS) functions exercised in the experiment can sustain pilot response delays of up to 90 seconds and more, depending on the traffic density. However, when pilots or operators fail to respond to conflict alerts the safety effects are substantial, particularly at higher traffic densities.

Poly-Omic Prediction of Complex Traits: OmicKriging

PubMed Central

Wheeler, Heather E.; Aquino-Michaels, Keston; Gamazon, Eric R.; Trubetskoy, Vassily V.; Dolan, M. Eileen; Huang, R. Stephanie; Cox, Nancy J.; Im, Hae Kyung

2014-01-01

High-confidence prediction of complex traits such as disease risk or drug response is an ultimate goal of personalized medicine. Although genome-wide association studies have discovered thousands of well-replicated polymorphisms associated with a broad spectrum of complex traits, the combined predictive power of these associations for any given trait is generally too low to be of clinical relevance. We propose a novel systems approach to complex trait prediction, which leverages and integrates similarity in genetic, transcriptomic, or other omics-level data. We translate the omic similarity into phenotypic similarity using a method called Kriging, commonly used in geostatistics and machine learning. Our method called OmicKriging emphasizes the use of a wide variety of systems-level data, such as those increasingly made available by comprehensive surveys of the genome, transcriptome, and epigenome, for complex trait prediction. Furthermore, our OmicKriging framework allows easy integration of prior information on the function of subsets of omics-level data from heterogeneous sources without the sometimes heavy computational burden of Bayesian approaches. Using seven disease datasets from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC), we show that OmicKriging allows simple integration of sparse and highly polygenic components yielding comparable performance at a fraction of the computing time of a recently published Bayesian sparse linear mixed model method. Using a cellular growth phenotype, we show that integrating mRNA and microRNA expression data substantially increases performance over either dataset alone. Using clinical statin response, we show improved prediction over existing methods. PMID:24799323

On the predictive control of foveal eye tracking and slow phases of optokinetic and vestibular nystagmus.

PubMed Central

Yasui, S; Young, L R

1984-01-01

Smooth pursuit and saccadic components of foveal visual tracking as well as more involuntary ocular movements of optokinetic (o.k.n.) and vestibular nystagmus slow phase components were investigated in man, with particular attention given to their possible input-adaptive or predictive behaviour. Each component in question was isolated from the eye movement records through a computer-aided procedure. The frequency response method was used with sinusoidal (predictable) and pseudo-random (unpredictable) stimuli. When the target motion was pseudo-random, the frequency response of pursuit eye movements revealed a large phase lead (up to about 90 degrees) at low stimulus frequencies. It is possible to interpret this result as a predictive effect, even though the stimulation was pseudo-random and thus 'unpredictable'. The pseudo-random-input frequency response intrinsic to the saccadic system was estimated in an indirect way from the pursuit and composite (pursuit + saccade) frequency response data. The result was fitted well by a servo-mechanism model, which has a simple anticipatory mechanism to compensate for the inherent neuromuscular saccadic delay by utilizing the retinal slip velocity signal. The o.k.n. slow phase also exhibited a predictive effect with sinusoidal inputs; however, pseudo-random stimuli did not produce such phase lead as found in the pursuit case. The vestibular nystagmus slow phase showed no noticeable sign of prediction in the frequency range examined (0 approximately 0.7 Hz), in contrast to the results of the visually driven eye movements (i.e. saccade, pursuit and o.k.n. slow phase) at comparable stimulus frequencies. PMID:6707954

Increased startle potentiation to unpredictable stressors in alcohol dependence: Possible stress neuroadaptation in humans

PubMed Central

Moberg, Christine A.; Bradford, Daniel E.; Kaye, Jesse T.; Curtin, John J.

2017-01-01

Stress plays a key role in addiction etiology and relapse. Rodent models posit that following repeated periods of alcohol and other drug intoxication, compensatory allostatic changes occur in the central nervous system (CNS) circuits involved in behavioral and emotional response to stressors. We examine a predicted manifestation of this neuroadaptation in recently abstinent alcohol dependent humans. Participants completed a translational laboratory task that uses startle potentiation to unpredictable (vs. predictable) stressors implicated in the putative CNS mechanisms that mediate this neuroadaptation. Alcohol dependent participants displayed significantly greater startle potentiation to unpredictable than predictable stressors relative to non-alcoholic controls. The size of this effect covaried with alcohol-related problems and degree of withdrawal syndrome. This supports the rodent model thesis of a sensitized stress response in abstinent alcoholics. However, this effect could also represent pre-morbid risk or mark more severe and/or comorbid psychopathology. Regardless, pharmacotherapy and psychological interventions may target unpredictable stressor response to reduce stress-induced relapse. PMID:28394145

Prediction and verification of creep behavior in metallic materials and components for the space shuttle thermal protection system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, J. W.; Cramer, B. A.

1976-01-01

A method of analysis was developed for predicting permanent cyclic creep deflections in stiffened panel structures. This method uses creep equations based on cyclic tensile creep tests and a computer program to predict panel deflections as a function of mission cycle. Four materials were investigated - a titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V), a cobalt alloy (L605), and two nickel alloys (Rene'41 and TDNiCr). Steady-state and cyclic creep response data were obtained by testing tensile specimens fabricated from thin gage sheet (0.025 and 0.63 cm nominal). Steady-state and cyclic creep equations were developed which describe creep as a function of time, temperature and load. Tests were also performed on subsize (6.35 x 30.5 cm) rib and corrugation stiffened panels. These tests were used to correlate creep responses between elemental specimens and panels. The panel response was analyzed by use of a specially written computer program.

The GP problem: quantifying gene-to-phenotype relationships.

PubMed

Cooper, Mark; Chapman, Scott C; Podlich, Dean W; Hammer, Graeme L

2002-01-01

In this paper we refer to the gene-to-phenotype modeling challenge as the GP problem. Integrating information across levels of organization within a genotype-environment system is a major challenge in computational biology. However, resolving the GP problem is a fundamental requirement if we are to understand and predict phenotypes given knowledge of the genome and model dynamic properties of biological systems. Organisms are consequences of this integration, and it is a major property of biological systems that underlies the responses we observe. We discuss the E(NK) model as a framework for investigation of the GP problem and the prediction of system properties at different levels of organization. We apply this quantitative framework to an investigation of the processes involved in genetic improvement of plants for agriculture. In our analysis, N genes determine the genetic variation for a set of traits that are responsible for plant adaptation to E environment-types within a target population of environments. The N genes can interact in epistatic NK gene-networks through the way that they influence plant growth and development processes within a dynamic crop growth model. We use a sorghum crop growth model, available within the APSIM agricultural production systems simulation model, to integrate the gene-environment interactions that occur during growth and development and to predict genotype-to-phenotype relationships for a given E(NK) model. Directional selection is then applied to the population of genotypes, based on their predicted phenotypes, to simulate the dynamic aspects of genetic improvement by a plant-breeding program. The outcomes of the simulated breeding are evaluated across cycles of selection in terms of the changes in allele frequencies for the N genes and the genotypic and phenotypic values of the populations of genotypes.

Incorporating Midbrain Adaptation to Mean Sound Level Improves Models of Auditory Cortical Processing

PubMed Central

Schoppe, Oliver; King, Andrew J.; Schnupp, Jan W.H.; Harper, Nicol S.

2016-01-01

Adaptation to stimulus statistics, such as the mean level and contrast of recently heard sounds, has been demonstrated at various levels of the auditory pathway. It allows the nervous system to operate over the wide range of intensities and contrasts found in the natural world. Yet current standard models of the response properties of auditory neurons do not incorporate such adaptation. Here we present a model of neural responses in the ferret auditory cortex (the IC Adaptation model), which takes into account adaptation to mean sound level at a lower level of processing: the inferior colliculus (IC). The model performs high-pass filtering with frequency-dependent time constants on the sound spectrogram, followed by half-wave rectification, and passes the output to a standard linear–nonlinear (LN) model. We find that the IC Adaptation model consistently predicts cortical responses better than the standard LN model for a range of synthetic and natural stimuli. The IC Adaptation model introduces no extra free parameters, so it improves predictions without sacrificing parsimony. Furthermore, the time constants of adaptation in the IC appear to be matched to the statistics of natural sounds, suggesting that neurons in the auditory midbrain predict the mean level of future sounds and adapt their responses appropriately. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT An ability to accurately predict how sensory neurons respond to novel stimuli is critical if we are to fully characterize their response properties. Attempts to model these responses have had a distinguished history, but it has proven difficult to improve their predictive power significantly beyond that of simple, mostly linear receptive field models. Here we show that auditory cortex receptive field models benefit from a nonlinear preprocessing stage that replicates known adaptation properties of the auditory midbrain. This improves their predictive power across a wide range of stimuli but keeps model complexity low as it introduces no new free parameters. Incorporating the adaptive coding properties of neurons will likely improve receptive field models in other sensory modalities too. PMID:26758822

Modeling and control for closed environment plant production systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleisher, David H.; Ting, K. C.; Janes, H. W. (Principal Investigator)

2002-01-01

A computer program was developed to study multiple crop production and control in controlled environment plant production systems. The program simulates crop growth and development under nominal and off-nominal environments. Time-series crop models for wheat (Triticum aestivum), soybean (Glycine max), and white potato (Solanum tuberosum) are integrated with a model-based predictive controller. The controller evaluates and compensates for effects of environmental disturbances on crop production scheduling. The crop models consist of a set of nonlinear polynomial equations, six for each crop, developed using multivariate polynomial regression (MPR). Simulated data from DSSAT crop models, previously modified for crop production in controlled environments with hydroponics under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, were used for the MPR fitting. The model-based predictive controller adjusts light intensity, air temperature, and carbon dioxide concentration set points in response to environmental perturbations. Control signals are determined from minimization of a cost function, which is based on the weighted control effort and squared-error between the system response and desired reference signal.

Structural response of a rotating bladed disk to rotor whirl

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crawley, E. F.

1985-01-01

A set of high speed rotating whirl experiments were performed in the vacuum of the MIT Blowdown Compressor Facility on the MIT Aeroelastic Rotor, which is structurally typical of a modern high bypass ratio turbofan stage. These tests identified the natural frequencies of whirl of the rotor system by forcing its response using an electromagnetic shaker whirl excitation system. The excitation was slowly swept in frequency at constant amplitude for several constant rotor speeds in both a forward and backward whirl direction. The natural frequencies of whirl determined by these experiments were compared to those predicted by an analytical 6 DOF model of a flexible blade-rigid disk-flexible shaft rotor. The model is also presented in terms of nondimensional parameters in order to assess the importance of the interation between the bladed disk dynamics and the shaft-disk dynamics. The correlation between the experimental and predicted natural frequencies is reasonable, given the uncertainty involved in determining the stiffness parameters of the system.

Concept of contrast transfer function for edge illumination x-ray phase-contrast imaging and its comparison with the free-space propagation technique.

PubMed

Diemoz, Paul C; Vittoria, Fabio A; Olivo, Alessandro

2016-05-16

Previous studies on edge illumination (EI) X-ray phase-contrast imaging (XPCi) have investigated the nature and amplitude of the signal provided by this technique. However, the response of the imaging system to different object spatial frequencies was never explicitly considered and studied. This is required in order to predict the performance of a given EI setup for different classes of objects. To this scope, in the present work we derive analytical expressions for the contrast transfer function of an EI imaging system, using the approximation of near-field regime, and study its dependence upon the main experimental parameters. We then exploit these results to compare the frequency response of an EI system with respect of that of a free-space propagation XPCi one. The results achieved in this work can be useful for predicting the signals obtainable for different types of objects and also as a basis for new retrieval methods.

A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, B.T.; Plant, N.G.; Thieler, E.R.

2011-01-01

Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Modeling the reversible, diffusive sink effect in response to transient contaminant sources.

PubMed

Zhao, D; Little, J C; Hodgson, A T

2002-09-01

A physically based diffusion model is used to evaluate the sink effect of diffusion-controlled indoor materials and to predict the transient contaminant concentration in indoor air in response to several time-varying contaminant sources. For simplicity, it is assumed the predominant indoor material is a homogeneous slab, initially free of contaminant, and the air within the room is well mixed. The model enables transient volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations to be predicted based on the material/air partition coefficient (K) and the material-phase diffusion coefficient (D) of the sink. Model predictions are made for three scenarios, each mimicking a realistic situation in a building. Styrene, phenol, and naphthalene are used as representative VOCs. A styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) backed carpet, vinyl flooring (VF), and a polyurethane foam (PUF) carpet cushion are considered as typical indoor sinks. In scenarios involving a sinusoidal VOC input and a double exponential decaying input, the model predicts the sink has a modest impact for SBR/styrene, but the effect increases for VF/phenol and PUF/naphthalene. In contrast, for an episodic chemical spill, SBR is predicted to reduce the peak styrene concentration considerably. A parametric study reveals for systems involving a large equilibrium constant (K), the kinetic constant (D) will govern the shape of the resulting gasphase concentration profile. On the other hand, for systems with a relaxed mass transfer resistance, K will dominate the profile.

Structural Dynamic Behavior of Wind Turbines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thresher, Robert W.; Mirandy, Louis P.; Carne, Thomas G.; Lobitz, Donald W.; James, George H. III

2009-01-01

The structural dynamicist s areas of responsibility require interaction with most other members of the wind turbine project team. These responsibilities are to predict structural loads and deflections that will occur over the lifetime of the machine, ensure favorable dynamic responses through appropriate design and operational procedures, evaluate potential design improvements for their impact on dynamic loads and stability, and correlate load and control test data with design predictions. Load prediction has been a major concern in wind turbine designs to date, and it is perhaps the single most important task faced by the structural dynamics engineer. However, even if we were able to predict all loads perfectly, this in itself would not lead to an economic system. Reduction of dynamic loads, not merely a "design to loads" policy, is required to achieve a cost-effective design. The two processes of load prediction and structural design are highly interactive: loads and deflections must be known before designers and stress analysts can perform structural sizing, which in turn influences the loads through changes in stiffness and mass. Structural design identifies "hot spots" (local areas of high stress) that would benefit most from dynamic load alleviation. Convergence of this cycle leads to a turbine structure that is neither under-designed (which may result in structural failure), nor over-designed (which will lead to excessive weight and cost).

Disease and thermal acclimation in a more variable and unpredictable climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raffel, Thomas R.; Romansic, John M.; Halstead, Neal T.; McMahon, Taegan A.; Venesky, Matthew D.; Rohr, Jason R.

2013-02-01

Global climate change is shifting the distribution of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. As well as increasing mean temperatures, climate change is expected to increase climate variability, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments conducted in 80 independent incubators, and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America, support the framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was opposite to the pattern of growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. If similar acclimation responses influence other host-parasite systems, as seems likely, then present models, which generally ignore small-scale temporal variability in climate, might provide poor predictions for climate effects on disease.

On-Line, Self-Learning, Predictive Tool for Determining Payload Thermal Response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jen, Chian-Li; Tilwick, Leon

2000-01-01

This paper will present the results of a joint ManTech / Goddard R&D effort, currently under way, to develop and test a computer based, on-line, predictive simulation model for use by facility operators to predict the thermal response of a payload during thermal vacuum testing. Thermal response was identified as an area that could benefit from the algorithms developed by Dr. Jeri for complex computer simulations. Most thermal vacuum test setups are unique since no two payloads have the same thermal properties. This requires that the operators depend on their past experiences to conduct the test which requires time for them to learn how the payload responds while at the same time limiting any risk of exceeding hot or cold temperature limits. The predictive tool being developed is intended to be used with the new Thermal Vacuum Data System (TVDS) developed at Goddard for the Thermal Vacuum Test Operations group. This model can learn the thermal response of the payload by reading a few data points from the TVDS, accepting the payload's current temperature as the initial condition for prediction. The model can then be used as a predictive tool to estimate the future payload temperatures according to a predetermined shroud temperature profile. If the error of prediction is too big, the model can be asked to re-learn the new situation on-line in real-time and give a new prediction. Based on some preliminary tests, we feel this predictive model can forecast the payload temperature of the entire test cycle within 5 degrees Celsius after it has learned 3 times during the beginning of the test. The tool will allow the operator to play "what-if' experiments to decide what is his best shroud temperature set-point control strategy. This tool will save money by minimizing guess work and optimizing transitions as well as making the testing process safer and easier to conduct.

Diagnostic Efficiency of easyCBM[R] Math: Oregon. Technical Report #1009

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Daniel; Alonzo, Julie; Tindal, Gerald

2010-01-01

The easyCBM[R] assessment system is an online benchmark and progress monitoring assessment system designed for use within a response to intervention framework. Educators using easyCBM[R] are often interested in using the results to predict students' state test performance. In the following technical document, we report diagnostic efficiency…

Does It Really Matter whether Students' Contributions Are Spoken versus Typed in an Intelligent Tutoring System with Natural Language?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

D'Mello, Sidney K.; Dowell, Nia; Graesser, Arthur

2011-01-01

There is the question of whether learning differs when students speak versus type their responses when interacting with intelligent tutoring systems with natural language dialogues. Theoretical bases exist for three contrasting hypotheses. The "speech facilitation" hypothesis predicts that spoken input will "increase" learning,…

Management filters and species traits: Weed community assembly in long-term organic and conventional systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Community assembly theory provides a useful framework to assess the response of weed communities to agricultural management systems and to improve the predictive power of weed science. Under this framework, weed community assembly is constrained by abiotic and biotic "filters" that act on species tr...

Impact of a Flexible Evaluation System on Effort and Timing of Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pacharn, Parunchana; Bay, Darlene; Felton, Sandra

2012-01-01

This paper examines results of a flexible grading system that allows each student to influence the weight allocated to each performance measure. We construct a stylized model to determine students' optimal responses. Our analytical model predicts different optimal strategies for students with varying academic abilities: a frontloading strategy for…

Magnetic Actuator Modelling for Rotating Machinery Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendes, Ricardo Ugliara; de Castro, Hélio Fiori; Cavalca, Kátia Lucchesi; Ferreira, Luiz Otávio Saraiva

Rotating machines have a wide range of application such as airplanes, factories, laboratories and power plants. Lately, with computer aid design, shafts finite element models including bearings, discs, seals and couplings have been developed, allowing the prediction of the machine behavior. In order to keep confidence during operation, it is necessary to monitor these systems, trying to predict future failures. One of the most applied technique for this purpose is the modal analysis. It consists of applying a perturbation force into the system and then to measure its response. However, there is a difficulty that brings limitations to the excitation of systems with rotating shafts when using impact hammers or shakers, once due to friction, undesired tangential forces and noise can be present in the measurements. Therefore, the study of a non-contact technique of external excitation becomes of high interest. In this sense, the present work deals with the study and development of a finite element model for rotating machines using a magnetic actuator as an external excitation source. This work also brings numerical simulations where the magnetic actuator was used to obtain the frequency response function of the rotating system.

Planner-Based Control of Advanced Life Support Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muscettola, Nicola; Kortenkamp, David; Fry, Chuck; Bell, Scott

2005-01-01

The paper describes an approach to the integration of qualitative and quantitative modeling techniques for advanced life support (ALS) systems. Developing reliable control strategies that scale up to fully integrated life support systems requires augmenting quantitative models and control algorithms with the abstractions provided by qualitative, symbolic models and their associated high-level control strategies. This will allow for effective management of the combinatorics due to the integration of a large number of ALS subsystems. By focusing control actions at different levels of detail and reactivity we can use faster: simpler responses at the lowest level and predictive but complex responses at the higher levels of abstraction. In particular, methods from model-based planning and scheduling can provide effective resource management over long time periods. We describe reference implementation of an advanced control system using the IDEA control architecture developed at NASA Ames Research Center. IDEA uses planning/scheduling as the sole reasoning method for predictive and reactive closed loop control. We describe preliminary experiments in planner-based control of ALS carried out on an integrated ALS simulation developed at NASA Johnson Space Center.

Integrated Modeling for Road Condition Prediction (IMRCP)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-17

Intelligent transportation system deployments have enabled great advances in operational awareness and response based on the data they gather on the current state of the roadways. Operators have better access to traffic and weather condition informat...

Selecting cockpit functions for speech I/O technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simpson, C. A.

1985-01-01

A general methodology for the initial selection of functions for speech generation and speech recognition technology is discussed. The SCR (Stimulus/Central-Processing/Response) compatibility model of Wickens et al. (1983) is examined, and its application is demonstrated for a particular cockpit display problem. Some limits of the applicability of that model are illustrated in the context of predicting overall pilot-aircraft system performance. A program of system performance measurement is recommended for the evaluation of candidate systems. It is suggested that no one measure of system performance can necessarily be depended upon to the exclusion of others. Systems response time, system accuracy, and pilot ratings are all important measures. Finally, these measures must be collected in the context of the total flight task environment.

Thymidine phosphorylase and hypoxia-inducible factor 1-α expression in clinical stage II/III rectal cancer: association with response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy and prognosis.

PubMed

Lin, Shuhan; Lai, Hao; Qin, Yuzhou; Chen, Jiansi; Lin, Yuan

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether pretreatment status of thymidine phosphorylase (TP), and hypoxia-inducible factor alpha (HIF-1α) could predict pathologic response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy with oxaliplatin and capecitabine (XELOXART) and outcomes for clinical stage II/III rectal cancer patients. A total of 180 patients diagnosed with clinical stage II/III rectal cancer received XELOXART. The status of TP, and HIF-1α were determined in pretreatment biopsies by immunohistochemistry (IHC). Tumor response was assessed in resected regimens using the tumor regression grade system and TNM staging system. 5-year disease free survival (DFS) and 5-year overall survival (OS) were evaluated with the Kaplan-Meier method and were compared by the log-rank test. Over expression of TP and low expression of HIF-1α were associated with pathologic response to XELOXART and better outcomes (DFS and OS) in clinical stage II/III rectal cancer patients (P < 0.05). Our result suggested that pretreatment status of TP and HIF-1α were found to predict pathologic response and outcomes in clinical stage II/III rectal cancer received XELOXART. Additional well-designed, large sample, multicenter, prospective studies are needed to confirm the result of this study.

A Summary of the Naval Postgraduate School Research Program.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-30

new model will now be used in a variety of oceanic investigations including the response of the ocean to tropical and extratropical storms (R. L...Numerical Study of Maritime Extratropical e. Cyclones Using FGGE Data ........................... 249 Oceanic Current System Response to Atmospheric...In addition* Professor Jayachandran has performed statistical analyses of the storm tracking methodology used by the Naval Environmental Prediction

Determining the folding and binding free energy of DNA-based nanodevices and nanoswitches using urea titration curves

PubMed Central

Idili, Andrea

2017-01-01

Abstract DNA nanotechnology takes advantage of the predictability of DNA interactions to build complex DNA-based functional nanoscale structures. However, when DNA functional and responsive units that are based on non-canonical DNA interactions are employed it becomes quite challenging to predict, understand and control their thermodynamics. In response to this limitation, here we demonstrate the use of isothermal urea titration experiments to estimate the free energy involved in a set of DNA-based systems ranging from unimolecular DNA-based nanoswitches to more complex DNA folds (e.g. aptamers) and nanodevices. We propose here a set of fitting equations that allow to analyze the urea titration curves of these DNA responsive units based on Watson–Crick and non-canonical interactions (stem-loop, G-quadruplex, triplex structures) and to correctly estimate their relative folding and binding free energy values under different experimental conditions. The results described herein will pave the way toward the use of urea titration experiments in the field of DNA nanotechnology to achieve easier and more reliable thermodynamic characterization of DNA-based functional responsive units. More generally, our results will be of general utility to characterize other complex supramolecular systems based on different biopolymers. PMID:28605461

Predicting consumer liking and preference based on emotional responses and sensory perception: A study with basic taste solutions.

PubMed

Samant, Shilpa S; Chapko, Matthew J; Seo, Han-Seok

2017-10-01

Traditional methods of sensory testing focus on capturing information about multisensory perceptions, but do not necessarily measure emotions elicited by these food and beverages. The objective of this study was to develop an optimum model of predicting overall liking (rating) and preference (choice) based on taste intensity and evoked emotions. One hundred and two participants (51 females) were asked to taste water, sucrose, citric acid, salt, and caffeine solutions. Their emotional responses toward each sample were measured by a combination of a self-reported emotion questionnaire (EsSense25), facial expressions, and autonomic nervous system (ANS) responses. In addition, their perceived intensity and overall liking were measured. After a break, participants re-tasted the samples and ranked them according to their preference. The results showed that emotional responses measured using self-reported emotion questionnaire and facial expression analysis along with perceived taste intensity performed best to predict overall liking as well as preference, while ANS measures showed limited contribution. Contrary to some previous research, this study demonstrated that not only negative emotions, but also positive ones could help predict consumer liking and preference. In addition, since there were subtle differences in the prediction models of overall liking and preference, both aspects should be taken into account to understand consumer behavior. In conclusion, combination of evoked emotions along with sensory perception could help better understand consumer acceptance as well as preference toward basic taste solutions. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Ocean dynamics during the passage of Xynthia storm recorded by GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolas, Joëlle; Ferenc, Marcell; Li, Zhao; van Dam, Tonie; Polidori, Laurent

2014-05-01

When computing the effect of atmospheric loading on geodetic coordinates, we must assign the response of the ocean to pressure loading. A pure inverted barometer and a solid Earth ocean response to pressure loading define the extremes of the response. At periods longer than a few days, the inverted barometer response is sufficient (Wunsch and Stammer, 1997). However, how does the ocean respond to fast moving storms? In this study we investigate the effect of a violent storm that progressed over Western Europe between the 27th of February and the 1st of March 2010 on sub-daily vertical GPS (Global Positioning System) position time series of the French GNSS permanent network (RGP). Xynthia was a huge low-pressure system (pressure drop of 40 mbar and a storm surge of 1.4 m (at La Rochelle tide gauge)) that crossed France from the southwest to the northeast over the course of about 20 hours. We study the different behaviour of the coastal and inland sites based on the comparison of the estimated 6-hourly stand-alone GPS position time series (GINS-PC software) with the local pressure and the predicted atmospheric pressure loading time series derived from the high resolution Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA MERRA) and also the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global dataset. We model the predicted displacements using the inverse barometer (IB) and the non-IB ocean response cases as endpoints. Predicted loading effects due to the atmospheric pressure and IB ocean reach up to 1.0, 1.3 and 13.7 mm for the east, north and up components, respectively. Then we attempt to use the GPS vertical surface displacements, the surface pressure, and tide gauge data (SONEL) to identify the true ocean dynamics on the continental shelf during the passage of this fast moving system. Keywords: GPS, GINS-PC, Xynthia, ocean dynamics, atmospheric pressure loading, deformation

Reduced autonomic responses to faces in Capgras delusion.

PubMed

Ellis, H D; Young, A W; Quayle, A H; De Pauw, K W

1997-07-22

People experiencing the Capgras delusion claim that others, usually those quite close emotionally, have been replaced by near-identical impostors. Ellis & Young suggested in 1990 that the Capgras delusion results from damage to a neurological system involved in orienting responses to seen faces based on their personal significance. This hypothesis predicts that people suffering the Capgras delusion will be hyporesponsive to familiar faces. We tested this prediction in five people with Capgras delusion. Comparison data were obtained from five middle-aged members of the general public, and a psychiatric control group of five patients taking similar anti-psychotic medication. Capgras delusion patients did not reveal autonomic discrimination between familiar and unfamiliar faces, but orienting responses to auditory tones were normal in magnitude and rate of initial habituation, showing that the hyporesponsiveness is circumscribed.

Reduced autonomic responses to faces in Capgras delusion.

PubMed Central

Ellis, H D; Young, A W; Quayle, A H; De Pauw, K W

1997-01-01

People experiencing the Capgras delusion claim that others, usually those quite close emotionally, have been replaced by near-identical impostors. Ellis & Young suggested in 1990 that the Capgras delusion results from damage to a neurological system involved in orienting responses to seen faces based on their personal significance. This hypothesis predicts that people suffering the Capgras delusion will be hyporesponsive to familiar faces. We tested this prediction in five people with Capgras delusion. Comparison data were obtained from five middle-aged members of the general public, and a psychiatric control group of five patients taking similar anti-psychotic medication. Capgras delusion patients did not reveal autonomic discrimination between familiar and unfamiliar faces, but orienting responses to auditory tones were normal in magnitude and rate of initial habituation, showing that the hyporesponsiveness is circumscribed. PMID:9263474

EEG potentials predict upcoming emergency brakings during simulated driving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haufe, Stefan; Treder, Matthias S.; Gugler, Manfred F.; Sagebaum, Max; Curio, Gabriel; Blankertz, Benjamin

2011-10-01

Emergency braking assistance has the potential to prevent a large number of car crashes. State-of-the-art systems operate in two stages. Basic safety measures are adopted once external sensors indicate a potential upcoming crash. If further activity at the brake pedal is detected, the system automatically performs emergency braking. Here, we present the results of a driving simulator study indicating that the driver's intention to perform emergency braking can be detected based on muscle activation and cerebral activity prior to the behavioural response. Identical levels of predictive accuracy were attained using electroencephalography (EEG), which worked more quickly than electromyography (EMG), and using EMG, which worked more quickly than pedal dynamics. A simulated assistance system using EEG and EMG was found to detect emergency brakings 130 ms earlier than a system relying only on pedal responses. At 100 km h-1 driving speed, this amounts to reducing the braking distance by 3.66 m. This result motivates a neuroergonomic approach to driving assistance. Our EEG analysis yielded a characteristic event-related potential signature that comprised components related to the sensory registration of a critical traffic situation, mental evaluation of the sensory percept and motor preparation. While all these components should occur often during normal driving, we conjecture that it is their characteristic spatio-temporal superposition in emergency braking situations that leads to the considerable prediction performance we observed.

Turbomachinery Forced Response Prediction System (FREPS): User's Manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morel, M. R.; Murthy, D. V.

1994-01-01

The turbomachinery forced response prediction system (FREPS), version 1.2, is capable of predicting the aeroelastic behavior of axial-flow turbomachinery blades. This document is meant to serve as a guide in the use of the FREPS code with specific emphasis on its use at NASA Lewis Research Center (LeRC). A detailed explanation of the aeroelastic analysis and its development is beyond the scope of this document, and may be found in the references. FREPS has been developed by the NASA LeRC Structural Dynamics Branch. The manual is divided into three major parts: an introduction, the preparation of input, and the procedure to execute FREPS. Part 1 includes a brief background on the necessity of FREPS, a description of the FREPS system, the steps needed to be taken before FREPS is executed, an example input file with instructions, presentation of the geometric conventions used, and the input/output files employed and produced by FREPS. Part 2 contains a detailed description of the command names needed to create the primary input file that is required to execute the FREPS code. Also, Part 2 has an example data file to aid the user in creating their own input files. Part 3 explains the procedures required to execute the FREPS code on the Cray Y-MP, a computer system available at the NASA LeRC.

EEG potentials predict upcoming emergency brakings during simulated driving.

PubMed

Haufe, Stefan; Treder, Matthias S; Gugler, Manfred F; Sagebaum, Max; Curio, Gabriel; Blankertz, Benjamin

2011-10-01

Emergency braking assistance has the potential to prevent a large number of car crashes. State-of-the-art systems operate in two stages. Basic safety measures are adopted once external sensors indicate a potential upcoming crash. If further activity at the brake pedal is detected, the system automatically performs emergency braking. Here, we present the results of a driving simulator study indicating that the driver's intention to perform emergency braking can be detected based on muscle activation and cerebral activity prior to the behavioural response. Identical levels of predictive accuracy were attained using electroencephalography (EEG), which worked more quickly than electromyography (EMG), and using EMG, which worked more quickly than pedal dynamics. A simulated assistance system using EEG and EMG was found to detect emergency brakings 130 ms earlier than a system relying only on pedal responses. At 100 km h(-1) driving speed, this amounts to reducing the braking distance by 3.66 m. This result motivates a neuroergonomic approach to driving assistance. Our EEG analysis yielded a characteristic event-related potential signature that comprised components related to the sensory registration of a critical traffic situation, mental evaluation of the sensory percept and motor preparation. While all these components should occur often during normal driving, we conjecture that it is their characteristic spatio-temporal superposition in emergency braking situations that leads to the considerable prediction performance we observed.

Nonlinear modal resonances in low-gravity slosh-spacecraft systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, Lee D.

1991-01-01

Nonlinear models of low gravity slosh, when coupled to spacecraft vibrations, predict intense nonlinear eigenfrequency shifts at zero gravity. These nonlinear frequency shifts are due to internal quadratic and cubic resonances between fluid slosh modes and spacecraft vibration modes. Their existence has been verified experimentally, and they cannot be correctly modeled by approximate, uncoupled nonlinear models, such as pendulum mechanical analogs. These predictions mean that linear slosh assumptions for spacecraft vibration models can be invalid, and may lead to degraded control system stability and performance. However, a complete nonlinear modal analysis will predict the correct dynamic behavior. This paper presents the analytical basis for these results, and discusses the effect of internal resonances on the nonlinear coupled response at zero gravity.

Predicting Fire Severity and Hydrogeomorphic Effects for Wildland Fire Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyde, K.; Woods, S. W.; Calkin, D.; Ryan, K.; Keane, R.

2007-12-01

The Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) uses the Fire Spread Probability (FSPro) model to predict the spatial extent of fire, and to assess values-at-risk within probable spread zones. This information is used to support Appropriate Management Response (AMR), which involves decision making regarding fire-fighter deployment, fire suppression requirements, and identification of areas where fire may be safely permitted to take its course. Current WFDSS assessments are generally limited to a binary prediction of whether or not a fire will reach a given location and an assessment of the infrastructure which may be damaged or destroyed by fire. However, an emerging challenge is to expand the capabilities of WFDSS so that it also estimates the probable fire severity, and hence the effect on soil, vegetation and on hydrologic and geomorphic processes such as runoff and soil erosion. We present a conceptual framework within which derivatives of predictive fire modelling are used to predict impacts upon vegetation and soil, from which fire severity and probable post-fire watershed response can be inferred, before a fire actually occurs. Fire severity predictions are validated using Burned Area Reflectance Classification imagery. Recent tests indicate that satellite derived BARC images are a simple and effective means to predict post-fire erosion response based on relative vegetation disturbance. A fire severity prediction which reasonably approximates a BARC image may therefore be used to assess post-fire erosion and flood potential before fire reaches an area. This information may provide a new avenue of reliable support for fire management decisions.

Effect of vibration on retention characteristics of screen acquisition systems. [for surface tension propellant acquisition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tegart, J. R.; Aydelott, J. C.

1978-01-01

The design of surface tension propellant acquisition systems using fine-mesh screen must take into account all factors that influence the liquid pressure differentials within the system. One of those factors is spacecraft vibration. Analytical models to predict the effects of vibration have been developed. A test program to verify the analytical models and to allow a comparative evaluation of the parameters influencing the response to vibration was performed. Screen specimens were tested under conditions simulating the operation of an acquisition system, considering the effects of such parameters as screen orientation and configuration, screen support method, screen mesh, liquid flow and liquid properties. An analytical model, based on empirical coefficients, was most successful in predicting the effects of vibration.

Thermal Response Modeling System for a Mars Sample Return Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Y.-K.; Miles, Frank S.; Arnold, Jim (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A multi-dimensional, coupled thermal response modeling system for analysis of hypersonic entry vehicles is presented. The system consists of a high fidelity Navier-Stokes equation solver (GIANTS), a two-dimensional implicit thermal response, pyrolysis and ablation program (TITAN), and a commercial finite-element thermal and mechanical analysis code (MARC). The simulations performed by this integrated system include hypersonic flowfield, fluid and solid interaction, ablation, shape change, pyrolysis gas eneration and flow, and thermal response of heatshield and structure. The thermal response of the heatshield is simulated using TITAN, and that of the underlying structural is simulated using MARC. The ablating heatshield is treated as an outer boundary condition of the structure, and continuity conditions of temperature and heat flux are imposed at the interface between TITAN and MARC. Aerothermal environments with fluid and solid interaction are predicted by coupling TITAN and GIANTS through surface energy balance equations. With this integrated system, the aerothermal environments for an entry vehicle and the thermal response of the entire vehicle can be obtained simultaneously. Representative computations for a flat-faced arc-jet test model and a proposed Mars sample return capsule are presented and discussed.

Thermal Response Modeling System for a Mars Sample Return Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Y.-K.; Milos, F. S.

2002-01-01

A multi-dimensional, coupled thermal response modeling system for analysis of hypersonic entry vehicles is presented. The system consists of a high fidelity Navier-Stokes equation solver (GIANTS), a two-dimensional implicit thermal response, pyrolysis and ablation program (TITAN), and a commercial finite element thermal and mechanical analysis code (MARC). The simulations performed by this integrated system include hypersonic flowfield, fluid and solid interaction, ablation, shape change, pyrolysis gas generation and flow, and thermal response of heatshield and structure. The thermal response of the heatshield is simulated using TITAN, and that of the underlying structural is simulated using MARC. The ablating heatshield is treated as an outer boundary condition of the structure, and continuity conditions of temperature and heat flux are imposed at the interface between TITAN and MARC. Aerothermal environments with fluid and solid interaction are predicted by coupling TITAN and GIANTS through surface energy balance equations. With this integrated system, the aerothermal environments for an entry vehicle and the thermal response of the entire vehicle can be obtained simultaneously. Representative computations for a flat-faced arc-jet test model and a proposed Mars sample return capsule are presented and discussed.

Realization of BP neural network modeling based on NOXof CFB boiler in DCS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Jianyun; Zhu, Zhujun; Wang, Qi; Ying, Jiang

2018-02-01

In the CFB boiler installed with SNCR denitrification system, the mass concentration of NO X is difficult to be predicted by the conventional mathematical model, and the step response mathematical model, obtained by using the step disturbance test of ammonia injection,is inaccurate. this paper presents two kinds of BP neural network model, according to the relationship between the generated mass concentration of NO X and the load, the ratio of air to coal without using the SNCR system, as well as the relationship between the tested mass concentration of NO X and the load, the ratio of air to coal and the amount of ammonia using the SNCR system. then itrealized the on-line prediction of the mass concentration of NO X and the remaining mass concentration of NO X after reductionreaction in DCS system. the practical results show that the average error per hour between generation and the prediction of the amount of NO X mass concentration is within 10 mg/Nm3,the reducing reaction of measured and predicted hourly average error is within 2 mg/Nm3, all in error range, which provides a more accurate model for solvingthe problem on NO X automatic control of SNCR system.

Evidence-based selection of training compounds for use in the mechanism-based integrated prediction of drug-induced liver injury in man.

PubMed

Dragovic, Sanja; Vermeulen, Nico P E; Gerets, Helga H; Hewitt, Philip G; Ingelman-Sundberg, Magnus; Park, B Kevin; Juhila, Satu; Snoeys, Jan; Weaver, Richard J

2016-12-01

The current test systems employed by pharmaceutical industry are poorly predictive for drug-induced liver injury (DILI). The 'MIP-DILI' project addresses this situation by the development of innovative preclinical test systems which are both mechanism-based and of physiological, pharmacological and pathological relevance to DILI in humans. An iterative, tiered approach with respect to test compounds, test systems, bioanalysis and systems analysis is adopted to evaluate existing models and develop new models that can provide validated test systems with respect to the prediction of specific forms of DILI and further elucidation of mechanisms. An essential component of this effort is the choice of compound training set that will be used to inform refinement and/or development of new model systems that allow prediction based on knowledge of mechanisms, in a tiered fashion. In this review, we focus on the selection of MIP-DILI training compounds for mechanism-based evaluation of non-clinical prediction of DILI. The selected compounds address both hepatocellular and cholestatic DILI patterns in man, covering a broad range of pharmacologies and chemistries, and taking into account available data on potential DILI mechanisms (e.g. mitochondrial injury, reactive metabolites, biliary transport inhibition, and immune responses). Known mechanisms by which these compounds are believed to cause liver injury have been described, where many if not all drugs in this review appear to exhibit multiple toxicological mechanisms. Thus, the training compounds selection offered a valuable tool to profile DILI mechanisms and to interrogate existing and novel in vitro systems for the prediction of human DILI.

The predictive value of external continuous lumbar drainage, with cerebrospinal fluid outflow controlled by medium pressure valve, in normal pressure hydrocephalus.

PubMed

Panagiotopoulos, V; Konstantinou, D; Kalogeropoulos, A; Maraziotis, T

2005-09-01

Although sporadic studies have described temporary external cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lumbar drainage as a highly accurate test for predicting the outcome after ventricular shunting in normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) patients, a more recent study reports that the positive predictive value of external lumbar drainage (ELD) is high but the negative predictive value is deceptively low. Therefore, we conducted a prospective study in order to evaluate the predictive value of a continuous ELD, with CSF outflow controlled by medium pressure valve, in NPH patients. Twenty-seven patients with presumed NPH were admitted to our department and CSF drainage was carried out by a temporary (ELD) with CSF outflow controlled by a medium pressure valve for five days. All patients received a ventriculoperitoneal shunt using a medium pressure valve based upon preoperative clinical and radiographic criteria of NPH, regardless of ELD outcome. Clinical evaluation of gait disturbances, urinary incontinence and mental status, and radiological evaluation with brain CT was performed prior to and after ELD test, as well as three months after shunting. Twenty-two patients were finally shunted and included in this study. In a three-month follow-up, using a previously validated score system, overall improvement after permanent shunting correlated well to improvement after ELD test (Spearman's rho = 0.462, p = 0.03). When considering any degree of improvement as a positive response, ELD test yielded high positive predictive values for all individual parameters (gait disturbances 94%, 95% CI 71%-100%, urinary incontinence 100%, 95% CI 66%-100%, and mental status 100%, 95% CI 66%-100%) but negative predictive values were low (< 50%) except for cognitive impairment (85%, 95% CI 55%-98%). This study suggests that a positive ELD-valve system test should be considered a reliable criterion for preoperative selection of shunt-responsive NPH patients. In case of a negative ELD-valve system test, further investigation of the presumed NPH patients with additional tests should be performed.

Mathematical modeling the radiation effects on humoral immunity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smirnova, O. A.

A mathematical model of humoral immune response in nonirradiated and irradiated mammals is developed. It is based on conventional theories and experimental facts in this field. The model is a system of nonlinear differential equations which describe the dynamics of concentrations of antibody and antigen molecules, immunocompetent B lymphocytes, and the rest blood lymphocytes, as well as the bone-marrow lymphocyte precursors. The interaction of antigen molecules with antibodies and with antibody-like receptors on immunocompetent cells is also incorporated. The model quantitatively reproduces the dynamics of the humoral immune response to the T-independent antigen (capsular antigen of plague microbe) in nonirradiated mammals (CBA mice). It describes the peculiarities of the humoral immune response in CBA mice exposed to acute radiation before or after introducing antigen. The model predicts an adaptation of humoral immune system to low dose rate chronic irradiation in the result of which the intensity of immune response relaxes to a new, lower than normal, stable level. The mechanisms of this phenomenon are revealed. The results obtained show that the developed model, after the appropriate identification, can be used to predict the effects of acute and low-level long-term irradiation on the system of humoral immunity in humans. Employment of the mathematical model identified in the proper way should be important in estimating the radiation risk for cosmonauts and astronauts on long space missions such as a voyage to Mars or a lunar colony.

Predictive potential of IL-28B genetic testing for interferon based hepatitis C virus therapy in Pakistan: Current scenario and future perspective.

PubMed

Afzal, Muhammad Sohail

2016-09-18

In Pakistan which ranked second in terms of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, it is highly needed to have an established diagnostic test for antiviral therapy response prediction. Interleukin 28B (IL-28B) genetic testing is widely used throughout the world for interferon based therapy prediction for HCV patients and is quite helpful not only for health care workers but also for the patients. There is a strong relationship between single nucleotide polymorphisms at or near the IL-28B gene and the sustained virological response with pegylated interferon plus ribavirin treatment for chronic hepatitis C. Pakistan is a resource limited country, with very low per capita income and there is no proper social security (health insurance) system. The allocated health budget by the government is very low and is used on other health emergencies like polio virus and dengue virus infection. Therefore it is proposed that there should be a well established diagnostic test on the basis of IL-28B which can predict the antiviral therapy response to strengthen health care set-up of Pakistan. This test once established will help in better management of HCV infected patients.

Predicting healthcare associated infections using patients' experiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratt, Michael A.; Chu, Henry

2016-05-01

Healthcare associated infections (HAI) are a major threat to patient safety and are costly to health systems. Our goal is to predict the HAI performance of a hospital using the patients' experience responses as input. We use four classifiers, viz. random forest, naive Bayes, artificial feedforward neural networks, and the support vector machine, to perform the prediction of six types of HAI. The six types include blood stream, urinary tract, surgical site, and intestinal infections. Experiments show that the random forest and support vector machine perform well across the six types of HAI.

Predictive models of forest dynamics.

PubMed

Purves, Drew; Pacala, Stephen

2008-06-13

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have shown that forest dynamics could dramatically alter the response of the global climate system to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next century. But there is little agreement between different DGVMs, making forest dynamics one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in predicting future climate. DGVM predictions could be strengthened by integrating the ecological realities of biodiversity and height-structured competition for light, facilitated by recent advances in the mathematics of forest modeling, ecological understanding of diverse forest communities, and the availability of forest inventory data.

The scaling of geographic ranges: implications for species distribution models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackulic, Charles B.; Ginsberg, Joshua R.

2016-01-01

There is a need for timely science to inform policy and management decisions; however, we must also strive to provide predictions that best reflect our understanding of ecological systems. Species distributions evolve through time and reflect responses to environmental conditions that are mediated through individual and population processes. Species distribution models that reflect this understanding, and explicitly model dynamics, are likely to give more accurate predictions.

Mapping the cortical representation of speech sounds in a syllable repetition task.

PubMed

Markiewicz, Christopher J; Bohland, Jason W

2016-11-01

Speech repetition relies on a series of distributed cortical representations and functional pathways. A speaker must map auditory representations of incoming sounds onto learned speech items, maintain an accurate representation of those items in short-term memory, interface that representation with the motor output system, and fluently articulate the target sequence. A "dorsal stream" consisting of posterior temporal, inferior parietal and premotor regions is thought to mediate auditory-motor representations and transformations, but the nature and activation of these representations for different portions of speech repetition tasks remains unclear. Here we mapped the correlates of phonetic and/or phonological information related to the specific phonemes and syllables that were heard, remembered, and produced using a series of cortical searchlight multi-voxel pattern analyses trained on estimates of BOLD responses from individual trials. Based on responses linked to input events (auditory syllable presentation), predictive vowel-level information was found in the left inferior frontal sulcus, while syllable prediction revealed significant clusters in the left ventral premotor cortex and central sulcus and the left mid superior temporal sulcus. Responses linked to output events (the GO signal cueing overt production) revealed strong clusters of vowel-related information bilaterally in the mid to posterior superior temporal sulcus. For the prediction of onset and coda consonants, input-linked responses yielded distributed clusters in the superior temporal cortices, which were further informative for classifiers trained on output-linked responses. Output-linked responses in the Rolandic cortex made strong predictions for the syllables and consonants produced, but their predictive power was reduced for vowels. The results of this study provide a systematic survey of how cortical response patterns covary with the identity of speech sounds, which will help to constrain and guide theoretical models of speech perception, speech production, and phonological working memory. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genomic profiling is predictive of response to cisplatin treatment but not to PI3K inhibition in bladder cancer patient-derived xenografts

PubMed Central

Ramakrishnan, Swathi; Elbanna, May; Wang, Jianmin; Hu, Qiang; Glenn, Sean T.; Murakami, Mitsuko; Liu, Lu; Gomez, Eduardo Cortes; Sun, Yuchen; Conroy, Jacob; Miles, Kiersten Marie; Malathi, Kullappan; Ramaiah, Sudha; Anbarasu, Anand; Woloszynska-Read, Anna; Johnson, Candace S.; Conroy, Jeffrey; Liu, Song; Morrison, Carl D.; Pili, Roberto

2016-01-01

Purpose Effective systemic therapeutic options are limited for bladder cancer. In this preclinical study we tested whether bladder cancer gene alterations may be predictive of treatment response. Experimental design We performed genomic profiling of two bladder cancer patient derived tumor xenografts (PDX). We optimized the exome sequence analysis method to overcome the mouse genome interference. Results We identified a number of somatic mutations, mostly shared by the primary tumors and PDX. In particular, BLCAb001, which is less responsive to cisplatin than BLCAb002, carried non-sense mutations in several genes associated with cisplatin resistance, including MLH1, BRCA2, and CASP8. Furthermore, RNA-Seq analysis revealed the overexpression of cisplatin resistance associated genes such as SLC7A11, TLE4, and IL1A in BLCAb001. Two different PIK3CA mutations, E542K and E545K, were identified in BLCAb001 and BLCAb002, respectively. Thus, we tested whether the genomic profiling was predictive of response to a dual PI3K/mTOR targeting agent, LY3023414. Despite harboring similar PIK3CA mutations, BLCAb001 and BLCAb002 exhibited differential response, both in vitro and in vivo. Sustained target modulation was observed in the sensitive model BLCAb002 but not in BLCAb001, as well as decreased autophagy. Interestingly, computational modelling of mutant structures and affinity binding to PI3K revealed that E542K mutation was associated with weaker drug binding than E545K. Conclusions Our results suggest that the presence of activating PIK3CA mutations may not necessarily predict in vivo treatment response to PI3K targeted therapies, while specific gene alterations may be predictive for cisplatin response in bladder cancer models and, potentially, in patients as well. PMID:27823983

Variation in both IL28B and KIR2DS3 genes influence pegylated interferon and ribavirin hepatitis C treatment outcome in HIV-1 co-infection.

PubMed

Keane, Ciara; O'Shea, Daire; Reiberger, Thomas; Peck-Radosavljevic, Markus; Farrell, Gillian; Bergin, Colm; Gardiner, Clair M

2013-01-01

Pegylated-IFN and ribavirin remains the current treatment for chronic HCV infection in patients co-infected with HIV-1, but this regimen has low efficacy rates, particularly for HCV genotype 1/4 infection, has severe side effects and is extremely costly. Therefore, accurate prediction of treatment response is urgently required. We have recently shown that the NK cell gene, KIR2DS3 and a SNP associated with the IL28B gene synergise to increase the risk of chronic infection in primary HCV mono-infected patients. Identification of SNPs associated with the IL28B gene has also proven very powerful for predicting patient response to treatment. Patients co-infected with HIV-1 are of particular concern given they respond less well to HCV treatment, have more side effects and suffer a more rapid liver disease progression. In this study, we examined both IL28B and KIR2DS3 for their ability to predict treatment response in a cohort of HIV-1/HCV co-infected patients attending two treatment centres in Europe. We found that variation in both host genetic risk factors, IL28B and KIR2DS3, was strongly associated with sustained virological response (SVR) to treatment in our co-infected cohort (n = 149). The majority of patients who achieved a rapid virological response (RVR) achieved a SVR. However, it is currently impossible to predict treatment outcome in patients who fail to achieve an RVR. In our cohort, the presence of host genetic risk factors, IL28B-T and KIR2DS3 alleles, resulted in increased odds of treatment failure in these RVR negative patients (n = 88). Our data suggests that testing for host genetic factors will improve predicting treatment responsiveness in the clinical management of co-infected patients, and provides further evidence of the importance of the innate immune system in the immune response to HCV.

A computer model of the pediatric circulatory system for testing pediatric assist devices.

PubMed

Giridharan, Guruprasad A; Koenig, Steven C; Mitchell, Michael; Gartner, Mark; Pantalos, George M

2007-01-01

Lumped parameter computer models of the pediatric circulatory systems for 1- and 4-year-olds were developed to predict hemodynamic responses to mechanical circulatory support devices. Model parameters, including resistance, compliance and volume, were adjusted to match hemodynamic pressure and flow waveforms, pressure-volume loops, percent systole, and heart rate of pediatric patients (n = 6) with normal ventricles. Left ventricular failure was modeled by adjusting the time-varying compliance curve of the left heart to produce aortic pressures and cardiac outputs consistent with those observed clinically. Models of pediatric continuous flow (CF) and pulsatile flow (PF) ventricular assist devices (VAD) and intraaortic balloon pump (IABP) were developed and integrated into the heart failure pediatric circulatory system models. Computer simulations were conducted to predict acute hemodynamic responses to PF and CF VAD operating at 50%, 75% and 100% support and 2.5 and 5 ml IABP operating at 1:1 and 1:2 support modes. The computer model of the pediatric circulation matched the human pediatric hemodynamic waveform morphology to within 90% and cardiac function parameters with 95% accuracy. The computer model predicted PF VAD and IABP restore aortic pressure pulsatility and variation in end-systolic and end-diastolic volume, but diminish with increasing CF VAD support.

Scalable and responsive event processing in the cloud

PubMed Central

Suresh, Visalakshmi; Ezhilchelvan, Paul; Watson, Paul

2013-01-01

Event processing involves continuous evaluation of queries over streams of events. Response-time optimization is traditionally done over a fixed set of nodes and/or by using metrics measured at query-operator levels. Cloud computing makes it easy to acquire and release computing nodes as required. Leveraging this flexibility, we propose a novel, queueing-theory-based approach for meeting specified response-time targets against fluctuating event arrival rates by drawing only the necessary amount of computing resources from a cloud platform. In the proposed approach, the entire processing engine of a distinct query is modelled as an atomic unit for predicting response times. Several such units hosted on a single node are modelled as a multiple class M/G/1 system. These aspects eliminate intrusive, low-level performance measurements at run-time, and also offer portability and scalability. Using model-based predictions, cloud resources are efficiently used to meet response-time targets. The efficacy of the approach is demonstrated through cloud-based experiments. PMID:23230164

A Data-Driven Response Virtual Sensor Technique with Partial Vibration Measurements Using Convolutional Neural Network.

PubMed

Sun, Shan-Bin; He, Yuan-Yuan; Zhou, Si-Da; Yue, Zhen-Jiang

2017-12-12

Measurement of dynamic responses plays an important role in structural health monitoring, damage detection and other fields of research. However, in aerospace engineering, the physical sensors are limited in the operational conditions of spacecraft, due to the severe environment in outer space. This paper proposes a virtual sensor model with partial vibration measurements using a convolutional neural network. The transmissibility function is employed as prior knowledge. A four-layer neural network with two convolutional layers, one fully connected layer, and an output layer is proposed as the predicting model. Numerical examples of two different structural dynamic systems demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. The excellence of the novel technique is further indicated using a simply supported beam experiment comparing to a modal-model-based virtual sensor, which uses modal parameters, such as mode shapes, for estimating the responses of the faulty sensors. The results show that the presented data-driven response virtual sensor technique can predict structural response with high accuracy.

A Data-Driven Response Virtual Sensor Technique with Partial Vibration Measurements Using Convolutional Neural Network

PubMed Central

Sun, Shan-Bin; He, Yuan-Yuan; Zhou, Si-Da; Yue, Zhen-Jiang

2017-01-01

Measurement of dynamic responses plays an important role in structural health monitoring, damage detection and other fields of research. However, in aerospace engineering, the physical sensors are limited in the operational conditions of spacecraft, due to the severe environment in outer space. This paper proposes a virtual sensor model with partial vibration measurements using a convolutional neural network. The transmissibility function is employed as prior knowledge. A four-layer neural network with two convolutional layers, one fully connected layer, and an output layer is proposed as the predicting model. Numerical examples of two different structural dynamic systems demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. The excellence of the novel technique is further indicated using a simply supported beam experiment comparing to a modal-model-based virtual sensor, which uses modal parameters, such as mode shapes, for estimating the responses of the faulty sensors. The results show that the presented data-driven response virtual sensor technique can predict structural response with high accuracy. PMID:29231868

RF model of the distribution system as a communication channel, phase 2. Volume 3: Appendices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rustay, R. C.; Gajjar, J. T.; Rankin, R. W.; Wentz, R. C.; Wooding, R.

1982-01-01

Program documentation concerning the design, implementation, and verification of a computerized model for predicting the steady-state sinusoidal response of radial configured distribution feeders is presented in these appendices.

Confirmation of linear system theory prediction: Changes in Herrnstein's k as a function of changes in reinforcer magnitude.

PubMed

McDowell, J J; Wood, H M

1984-03-01

Eight human subjects pressed a lever on a range of variable-interval schedules for 0.25 cent to 35.0 cent per reinforcement. Herrnstein's hyperbola described seven of the eight subjects' response-rate data well. For all subjects, the y-asymptote of the hyperbola increased with increasing reinforcer magnitude and its reciprocal was a linear function of the reciprocal of reinforcer magnitude. These results confirm predictions made by linear system theory; they contradict formal properties of Herrnstein's account and of six other mathematical accounts of single-alternative responding.

Confirmation of linear system theory prediction: Changes in Herrnstein's k as a function of changes in reinforcer magnitude

PubMed Central

McDowell, J. J; Wood, Helena M.

1984-01-01

Eight human subjects pressed a lever on a range of variable-interval schedules for 0.25¢ to 35.0¢ per reinforcement. Herrnstein's hyperbola described seven of the eight subjects' response-rate data well. For all subjects, the y-asymptote of the hyperbola increased with increasing reinforcer magnitude and its reciprocal was a linear function of the reciprocal of reinforcer magnitude. These results confirm predictions made by linear system theory; they contradict formal properties of Herrnstein's account and of six other mathematical accounts of single-alternative responding. PMID:16812366

Prediction and monitoring of clear air turbulence: An evaluation of the applicability of the rawinsonde system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, J. L.

1978-01-01

The applicability of rawinsonde data for either detection or prediction of clear air turbulence is discussed. The mechanism currently believed responsible for the development of CAT is reviewed. Since previous studies determined that the most significant factor for the existence of turbulent layers is the magnitude of the vertical shear, certain theoretically derived shear criteria was applied to statistical and diagnostic comparisons of rawinsonde and Jimsphere/Jimsonde conjunctive vertical profiles. It is determined that the Rawinsonde system cannot reliably be used as a CAT detector in a single-station sense.

Operational Challenges In TDRS Post-Maneuver Orbit Determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laing, Jason; Myers, Jessica; Ward, Douglas; Lamb, Rivers

2015-01-01

The GSFC Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) is responsible for daily and post maneuver orbit determination for the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). The most stringent requirement for this orbit determination is 75 meters total position accuracy (3-sigma) predicted over one day for Terra's onboard navigation system. To maintain an accurate solution onboard Terra, a solution is generated and provided by the FDF Four hours after a TDRS maneuver. A number of factors present challenges to this support, such as maneuver prediction uncertainty and potentially unreliable tracking from User satellities. Reliable support is provided by comparing an extended Kalman Filter (estimated using ODTK) against a Batch Least Squares system (estimated using GTDS).

An ASIC memory buffer controller for a high speed disk system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodson, Robert F.; Campbell, Steve

1993-01-01

The need for large capacity, high speed mass memory storage devices has become increasingly evident at NASA during the past decade. High performance mass storage systems are crucial to present and future NASA systems. Spaceborne data storage system requirements have grown in response to the increasing amounts of data generated and processed by orbiting scientific experiments. Predictions indicate increases in the volume of data by orders of magnitude during the next decade. Current predictions are for storage capacities on the order of terabits (Tb), with data rates exceeding one gigabit per second (Gbps). As part of the design effort for a state of the art mass storage system, NASA Langley has designed a 144 CMOS ASIC to support high speed data transfers. This paper discusses the system architecture, ASIC design and some of the lessons learned in the development process.

A Simple Network Architecture Accounts for Diverse Reward Time Responses in Primary Visual Cortex

PubMed Central

Hussain Shuler, Marshall G.; Shouval, Harel Z.

2015-01-01

Many actions performed by animals and humans depend on an ability to learn, estimate, and produce temporal intervals of behavioral relevance. Exemplifying such learning of cued expectancies is the observation of reward-timing activity in the primary visual cortex (V1) of rodents, wherein neural responses to visual cues come to predict the time of future reward as behaviorally experienced in the past. These reward-timing responses exhibit significant heterogeneity in at least three qualitatively distinct classes: sustained increase or sustained decrease in firing rate until the time of expected reward, and a class of cells that reach a peak in firing at the expected delay. We elaborate upon our existing model by including inhibitory and excitatory units while imposing simple connectivity rules to demonstrate what role these inhibitory elements and the simple architectures play in sculpting the response dynamics of the network. We find that simply adding inhibition is not sufficient for obtaining the different distinct response classes, and that a broad distribution of inhibitory projections is necessary for obtaining peak-type responses. Furthermore, although changes in connection strength that modulate the effects of inhibition onto excitatory units have a strong impact on the firing rate profile of these peaked responses, the network exhibits robustness in its overall ability to predict the expected time of reward. Finally, we demonstrate how the magnitude of expected reward can be encoded at the expected delay in the network and how peaked responses express this reward expectancy. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Heterogeneity in single-neuron responses is a common feature of neuronal systems, although sometimes, in theoretical approaches, it is treated as a nuisance and seldom considered as conveying a different aspect of a signal. In this study, we focus on the heterogeneous responses in the primary visual cortex of rodents trained with a predictable delayed reward time. We describe under what conditions this heterogeneity can arise by self-organization, and what information it can convey. This study, while focusing on a specific system, provides insight onto how heterogeneity can arise in general while also shedding light onto mechanisms of reinforcement learning using realistic biological assumptions. PMID:26377457

Extrinsic and Intrinsic Responses to Environmental Change: Insights from Terrestrial Paleoecological Archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seddon, A. W. R.; Mackay, A. W.

2015-12-01

Current understanding of ecological behaviour indicates that systems can experience sudden and abrupt changes in state, driven either by a large external change in environmental conditions (extrinsically forced), or the result of a set local feedbacks and site-specific interactions (intrinsically mediated responses). Responses mediated by intrinsic processes are notoriously diffi- cult to predict, they can occur as slow environmental variables gradually erode the resilience of the system eventually resulting in threshold transitions between alternative stable states. Finding ways to identify, model and predict such complex ecosystem behavior has been identified as a priority research challenge for both ecology and paleoecology. The paleoecological record can play a role in understanding the processes behind abrupt ecological change because it enables the reconstruction of processes occurring over decadal-centennial timescales or longer. Therefore, paleoecological data can be used to identify the existence of ecological thresholds and to investigate the environmental processes that can lead to loss of resilience and abrupt transitions between alternate states. In addition, incidences of abrupt vegetation changes in the past can serve as palaeoecological model systems; analogues of abrupt dynamics which can be used to test theories surrounding ecological responses to climate change. Here, I present examples from a range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holocene environmental changes from a coastal lagoon in the Galapagos Islands; Northern European vegetation changes since the last deglaciation; the North American hemlock decline) demonstrating evidence of abrupt ecosystem change. For each system I present a set of statistical techniques tailored to distin- guish between extrinsic versus intrinsically mediated ecological responses. Examples are provided from both single sites (i.e. landscape scale) and multiple sites (regional-continental scale). These techniques provide a useful way to identify when and where intrinsically mediated responses to environmental change occurs; the next challenge is to understand and quantify the processes that underlie these intrinsic responses.

First Principles Modeling of RFQ Cooling System and Resonant Frequency Responses for Fermilab’s PIP-II Injector Test

DOE PAGES

Edelen, J. P.; Edelen, A. L.; Bowring, D.; ...

2016-12-23

In this study we develop an a priori method for simulating dynamic resonant frequency and temperature responses in a radio frequency quadrupole (RFQ) and its associated water-based cooling system respectively. Our model provides a computationally efficient means to evaluate the transient response of the RFQ over a large range of system parameters. The model was constructed prior to the delivery of the PIP-II Injector Test RFQ and was used to aid in the design of the water-based cooling system, data acquisition system, and resonance control system. Now that the model has been validated with experimental data, it can confidently bemore » used to aid in the design of future RFQ resonance controllers and their associated water-based cooling systems. Finally, without any empirical fitting, it has demonstrated the ability to predict absolute temperature and frequency changes to 11% accuracy on average, and relative changes to 7% accuracy.« less

Stochastic sensitivity measure for mistuned high-performance turbines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murthy, Durbha V.; Pierre, Christophe

1992-01-01

A stochastic measure of sensitivity is developed in order to predict the effects of small random blade mistuning on the dynamic aeroelastic response of turbomachinery blade assemblies. This sensitivity measure is based solely on the nominal system design (i.e., on tuned system information), which makes it extremely easy and inexpensive to calculate. The measure has the potential to become a valuable design tool that will enable designers to evaluate mistuning effects at a preliminary design stage and thus assess the need for a full mistuned rotor analysis. The predictive capability of the sensitivity measure is illustrated by examining the effects of mistuning on the aeroelastic modes of the first stage of the oxidizer turbopump in the Space Shuttle Main Engine. Results from a full analysis mistuned systems confirm that the simple stochastic sensitivity measure predicts consistently the drastic changes due to misturning and the localization of aeroelastic vibration to a few blades.

Covert Network Analysis for Key Player Detection and Event Prediction Using a Hybrid Classifier

PubMed Central

Akram, M. Usman; Khan, Shoab A.; Javed, Muhammad Younus

2014-01-01

National security has gained vital importance due to increasing number of suspicious and terrorist events across the globe. Use of different subfields of information technology has also gained much attraction of researchers and practitioners to design systems which can detect main members which are actually responsible for such kind of events. In this paper, we present a novel method to predict key players from a covert network by applying a hybrid framework. The proposed system calculates certain centrality measures for each node in the network and then applies novel hybrid classifier for detection of key players. Our system also applies anomaly detection to predict any terrorist activity in order to help law enforcement agencies to destabilize the involved network. As a proof of concept, the proposed framework has been implemented and tested using different case studies including two publicly available datasets and one local network. PMID:25136674

Immune response in a wild bird is predicted by oxidative status, but does not cause oxidative stress.

PubMed

Cram, Dominic L; Blount, Jonathan D; York, Jennifer E; Young, Andrew J

2015-01-01

The immune system provides vital protection against pathogens, but extensive evidence suggests that mounting immune responses can entail survival and fecundity costs. The physiological mechanisms that underpin these costs remain poorly understood, despite their potentially important role in shaping life-histories. Recent studies involving laboratory models highlight the possibility that oxidative stress could mediate these costs, as immune-activation can increase the production of reactive oxygen species leading to oxidative stress. However, this hypothesis has rarely been tested in free-ranging wild populations, where natural oxidative statuses and compensatory strategies may moderate immune responses and their impacts on oxidative status. Furthermore, the possibility that individuals scale their immune responses according to their oxidative status, conceivably to mitigate such costs, remains virtually unexplored. Here, we experimentally investigate the effects of a phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) immune-challenge on oxidative status in wild male and female white-browed sparrow weavers, Plocepasser mahali. We also establish whether baseline oxidative status prior to challenge predicts the scale of the immune responses. Contrary to previous work on captive animals, our findings suggest that PHA-induced immune-activation does not elicit oxidative stress. Compared with controls (n = 25 birds), PHA-injected birds (n = 27 birds) showed no evidence of a differential change in markers of oxidative damage or enzymatic and non-enzymatic antioxidant protection 24 hours after challenge. We did, however, find that the activity of a key antioxidant enzyme (superoxide dismutase, SOD) prior to immune-activation predicted the scale of the resulting swelling: birds with stronger initial SOD activity subsequently produced smaller swellings. Our findings (i) suggest that wild birds can mount immune responses without suffering from systemic oxidative stress, and (ii) lend support to biomedical evidence that baseline oxidative status can impact the scale of immune responses; a possibility not yet recognised in ecological studies of immunity.

Predicting and managing primary and secondary non-response to rituximab using B-cell biomarkers in systemic lupus erythematosus

PubMed Central

Md Yusof, Md Yuzaiful; Shaw, Daniel; El-Sherbiny, Yasser M; Dunn, Emma; Rawstron, Andy C; Emery, Paul; Vital, Edward M

2017-01-01

Objective To assess factors associated with primary and secondary non-response to rituximab in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and evaluate management of secondary non-depletion non-response (2NDNR). Methods 125 patients with SLE treated with rituximab over 12 years were studied prospectively. A major clinical response was defined as improvement of all active British Isles Lupus Assessment Group (BILAG)-2004 domains to grade C/better and no A/B flare. Partial responders were defined by one persistent BILAG B. B-cell subsets were measured using highly sensitive flow cytometry. Patients with 2NDNR, defined by infusion reaction and defective depletion, were treated with ocrelizumab or ofatumumab. Results 117 patients had evaluable data. In cycle 1 (C1), 96/117 (82%) achieved BILAG response (major=50%, partial=32%). In multivariable analysis, younger age (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.00) and B-cell depletion at 6 weeks (OR 3.22, 95% CI 1.24 to 8.33) increased the odds of major response. Complete depletion was predicted by normal complement and lower pre-rituximab plasmablasts and was not associated with increased serious infection post-rituximab. Seventy-seven (with data on 72) C1 responders were retreated on clinical relapse. Of these, 61/72 (85%) responded in cycle 2 (C2). Of the 11 C2 non-responders, nine met 2NDNR criteria (incidence=12%) and tested positive for anti-rituximab antibodies. Lack of concomitant immunosuppressant and higher pre-rituximab plasmablasts predicted 2NDNR. Five were switched to ocrelizumab/ofatumumab, and all depleted and responded. Conclusion Treatment with anti-CD20 agents can be guided by B-cell monitoring and should aim to achieve complete depletion. 2NDNR is associated with anti-rituximab antibodies, and switching to humanised agents restores depletion and response. In SLE, alternative anti-CD20 antibodies may be more consistently effective. PMID:28684557

Immune Response in a Wild Bird Is Predicted by Oxidative Status, but Does Not Cause Oxidative Stress

PubMed Central

Cram, Dominic L.; Blount, Jonathan D.; York, Jennifer E.; Young, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

The immune system provides vital protection against pathogens, but extensive evidence suggests that mounting immune responses can entail survival and fecundity costs. The physiological mechanisms that underpin these costs remain poorly understood, despite their potentially important role in shaping life-histories. Recent studies involving laboratory models highlight the possibility that oxidative stress could mediate these costs, as immune-activation can increase the production of reactive oxygen species leading to oxidative stress. However, this hypothesis has rarely been tested in free-ranging wild populations, where natural oxidative statuses and compensatory strategies may moderate immune responses and their impacts on oxidative status. Furthermore, the possibility that individuals scale their immune responses according to their oxidative status, conceivably to mitigate such costs, remains virtually unexplored. Here, we experimentally investigate the effects of a phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) immune-challenge on oxidative status in wild male and female white-browed sparrow weavers, Plocepasser mahali. We also establish whether baseline oxidative status prior to challenge predicts the scale of the immune responses. Contrary to previous work on captive animals, our findings suggest that PHA-induced immune-activation does not elicit oxidative stress. Compared with controls (n = 25 birds), PHA-injected birds (n = 27 birds) showed no evidence of a differential change in markers of oxidative damage or enzymatic and non-enzymatic antioxidant protection 24 hours after challenge. We did, however, find that the activity of a key antioxidant enzyme (superoxide dismutase, SOD) prior to immune-activation predicted the scale of the resulting swelling: birds with stronger initial SOD activity subsequently produced smaller swellings. Our findings (i) suggest that wild birds can mount immune responses without suffering from systemic oxidative stress, and (ii) lend support to biomedical evidence that baseline oxidative status can impact the scale of immune responses; a possibility not yet recognised in ecological studies of immunity. PMID:25815888

Estimation of Sonic Fatigue by Reduced-Order Finite Element Based Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rizzi, Stephen A.; Przekop, Adam

2006-01-01

A computationally efficient, reduced-order method is presented for prediction of sonic fatigue of structures exhibiting geometrically nonlinear response. A procedure to determine the nonlinear modal stiffness using commercial finite element codes allows the coupled nonlinear equations of motion in physical degrees of freedom to be transformed to a smaller coupled system of equations in modal coordinates. The nonlinear modal system is first solved using a computationally light equivalent linearization solution to determine if the structure responds to the applied loading in a nonlinear fashion. If so, a higher fidelity numerical simulation in modal coordinates is undertaken to more accurately determine the nonlinear response. Comparisons of displacement and stress response obtained from the reduced-order analyses are made with results obtained from numerical simulation in physical degrees-of-freedom. Fatigue life predictions from nonlinear modal and physical simulations are made using the rainflow cycle counting method in a linear cumulative damage analysis. Results computed for a simple beam structure under a random acoustic loading demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach and compare favorably with results obtained from the solution in physical degrees-of-freedom.

Flood-tracking chart for the Withlacoochee and Little River Basins in south-central Georgia and northern Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotvald, Anthony J.; McCallum, Brian E.; Painter, Jaime A.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with other Federal, State, and local agencies, operates a flood-monitoring system in the Withlacoochee and Little River Basins. This system is a network of automated river stage stations (ten are shown on page 2 of this publication) that transmit stage data through satellite telemetry to the USGS in Atlanta, Georgia and the National Weather Service (NWS) in Peachtree City, Georgia. During floods, the public and emergency response agencies use this information to make decisions about road closures, evacuations, and other public safety issues. This Withlacoochee and Little River Basins flood-tracking chart can be used by local citizens and emergency response personnel to record the latest river stage and predicted flood-crest information along the Withlacoochee River, Little River, and Okapilco Creek in south-central Georgia and northern Florida. By comparing the current stage (water-surface level above a datum) and predicted flood crest to the recorded peak stages of previous floods, emergency response personnel and residents can make informed decisions concerning the threat to life and property.

Inelastic response of metal matrix composites under biaxial loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lissenden, C. J.; Mirzadeh, F.; Pindera, M.-J.; Herakovich, C. T.

1991-01-01

Theoretical predictions and experimental results were obtained for inelastic response of unidirectional and angle ply composite tubes subjected to axial and torsional loading. The composite material consist of silicon carbide fibers in a titanium alloy matrix. This material is known to be susceptible to fiber matrix interfacial damage. A method to distinguish between matrix yielding and fiber matrix interfacial damage is suggested. Biaxial tests were conducted on the two different layup configurations using an MTS Axial/Torsional load frame with a PC based data acquisition system. The experimentally determined elastic moduli of the SiC/Ti system are compared with those predicted by a micromechanics model. The test results indicate that fiber matrix interfacial damage occurs at relatively low load levels and is a local phenomenon. The micromechanics model used is the method of cells originally proposed by Aboudi. Finite element models using the ABACUS finite element program were used to study end effects and fixture specimen interactions. The results to date have shown good correlation between theory and experiment for response prior to damage initiation.

Circulating levels of FAS/APO-1 in patients with the systemic inflammatory response syndrome.

PubMed

Torre, Donato; Tambini, Roberto; Manfredi, Mariangela; Mangani, Valerio; Livi, Paola; Maldifassi, Viviana; Campi, Paolo; Speranza, Filippo

2003-04-01

Resolution of inflammation/infection involves removal of neutrophils and other inflammatory cells by the induction of apoptosis. Fas/Apo-1 is a widely occurring apoptotic signal receptor molecule expressed by almost any type of cell, which is also released in a soluble circulating form. In this study we investigated the role of circulating Fas/Apo-1 in patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). We evaluated 57 critically ill patients, 34 with infectious SIRS (sepsis and septic shock), and 23 patients with noninfectious SIRS. Circulating Fas/Apo-1 was determined by a commercially available immunoassay. Our results clearly show that levels of Fas/Apo-1 were significantly elevated in patients with infectious and noninfectious SIRS (10.4 +/- 8.1 pg/mL, controls: 5.0 +/- 0.7 pg/mL; p < 0.0001). In addition, Fas/Apo-1 levels were not able in predicting in predicting poor outcome of patients with SIRS. In conclusion, these results show that increased levels of Fas/Apo-1 from patients with SIRS is a mechanism which contribute to inflammatory response through accumulation of neutrophils at sites of inflammation/infection.

Dengue Contingency Planning: From Research to Policy and Practice.

PubMed

Runge-Ranzinger, Silvia; Kroeger, Axel; Olliaro, Piero; McCall, Philip J; Sánchez Tejeda, Gustavo; Lloyd, Linda S; Hakim, Lokman; Bowman, Leigh R; Horstick, Olaf; Coelho, Giovanini

2016-09-01

Dengue is an increasingly incident disease across many parts of the world. In response, an evidence-based handbook to translate research into policy and practice was developed. This handbook facilitates contingency planning as well as the development and use of early warning and response systems for dengue fever epidemics, by identifying decision-making processes that contribute to the success or failure of dengue surveillance, as well as triggers that initiate effective responses to incipient outbreaks. Available evidence was evaluated using a step-wise process that included systematic literature reviews, policymaker and stakeholder interviews, a study to assess dengue contingency planning and outbreak management in 10 countries, and a retrospective logistic regression analysis to identify alarm signals for an outbreak warning system using datasets from five dengue endemic countries. Best practices for managing a dengue outbreak are provided for key elements of a dengue contingency plan including timely contingency planning, the importance of a detailed, context-specific dengue contingency plan that clearly distinguishes between routine and outbreak interventions, surveillance systems for outbreak preparedness, outbreak definitions, alert algorithms, managerial capacity, vector control capacity, and clinical management of large caseloads. Additionally, a computer-assisted early warning system, which enables countries to identify and respond to context-specific variables that predict forthcoming dengue outbreaks, has been developed. Most countries do not have comprehensive, detailed contingency plans for dengue outbreaks. Countries tend to rely on intensified vector control as their outbreak response, with minimal focus on integrated management of clinical care, epidemiological, laboratory and vector surveillance, and risk communication. The Technical Handbook for Surveillance, Dengue Outbreak Prediction/ Detection and Outbreak Response seeks to provide countries with evidence-based best practices to justify the declaration of an outbreak and the mobilization of the resources required to implement an effective dengue contingency plan.

Performance characteristics of the Mayo/IBM PACS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persons, Kenneth R.; Gehring, Dale G.; Pavicic, Mark J.; Ding, Yingjai

1991-07-01

The Mayo Clinic and IBM (at Rochester, Minnesota) have jointly developed a picture archiving system for use with Mayo's MRI and Neuro CT imaging modalities. The communications backbone of the PACS is a portion of the Mayo institutional network: a series of 4-Mbps token rings interconnected by bridges and fiber optic extensions. The performance characteristics of this system are important to understand because they affect the response time a PACS user can expect, and the response time for non-PACS users competing for resources on the institutional network. The performance characteristics of each component and the average load levels of the network were measured for various load distributions. These data were used to quantify the response characteristics of the existing system and to tune a model developed by North Dakota State University Department of Computer Science for predicting response times of more complex topologies.

Epigenetic Alteration by DNA Methylation of ESR1, MYOD1 and hTERT Gene Promoters is Useful for Prediction of Response in Patients of Locally Advanced Invasive Cervical Carcinoma Treated by Chemoradiation.

PubMed

Sood, S; Patel, F D; Ghosh, S; Arora, A; Dhaliwal, L K; Srinivasan, R

2015-12-01

Locally advanced invasive cervical cancer [International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) IIB/III] is treated by chemoradiation. The response to treatment is variable within a given FIGO stage. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the gene promoter methylation profile and corresponding transcript expression of a panel of six genes to identify genes which could predict the response of patients treated by chemoradiation. In total, 100 patients with invasive cervical cancer in FIGO stage IIB/III who underwent chemoradiation treatment were evaluated. Ten patients developed systemic metastases during therapy and were excluded. On the basis of patient follow-up, 69 patients were chemoradiation-sensitive, whereas 21 were chemoradiation-resistant. Gene promoter methylation and gene expression was determined by TaqMan assay and quantitative real-time PCR, respectively, in tissue samples. The methylation frequency of ESR1, BRCA1, RASSF1A, MLH1, MYOD1 and hTERT genes ranged from 40 to 70%. Univariate and hierarchical cluster analysis revealed that gene promoter methylation of MYOD1, ESR1 and hTERT could predict for chemoradiation response. A pattern of unmethylated MYOD1, unmethylated ESR1 and methylated hTERT promoter as well as lower ESR1 transcript levels predicted for chemoradiation resistance. Methylation profiling of a panel of three genes that includes MYOD1, ESR1 and hTERT may be useful to predict the response of invasive cervical carcinoma patients treated with standard chemoradiation therapy. Copyright © 2015 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Brain Regional Blood Flow and Working Memory Performance Predict Change in Blood Pressure Over 2 Years.

PubMed

Jennings, J Richard; Heim, Alicia F; Sheu, Lei K; Muldoon, Matthew F; Ryan, Christopher; Gach, H Michael; Schirda, Claudiu; Gianaros, Peter J

2017-12-01

Hypertension is a presumptive risk factor for premature cognitive decline. However, lowering blood pressure (BP) does not uniformly reverse cognitive decline, suggesting that high BP per se may not cause cognitive decline. We hypothesized that essential hypertension has initial effects on the brain that, over time, manifest as cognitive dysfunction in conjunction with both brain vascular abnormalities and systemic BP elevation. Accordingly, we tested whether neuropsychological function and brain blood flow responses to cognitive challenges among prehypertensive individuals would predict subsequent progression of BP. Midlife adults (n=154; mean age, 49; 45% men) with prehypertensive BP underwent neuropsychological testing and assessment of regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) response to cognitive challenges. Neuropsychological performance measures were derived for verbal and logical memory (memory), executive function, working memory, mental efficiency, and attention. A pseudo-continuous arterial spin labeling magnetic resonance imaging sequence compared rCBF responses with control and active phases of cognitive challenges. Brain areas previously associated with BP were grouped into composites for frontoparietal, frontostriatal, and insular-subcortical rCBF areas. Multiple regression models tested whether BP after 2 years was predicted by initial BP, initial neuropsychological scores, and initial rCBF responses to cognitive challenge. The neuropsychological composite of working memory (standardized beta, -0.276; se=0.116; P =0.02) and the frontostriatal rCBF response to cognitive challenge (standardized beta, 0.234; se=0.108; P =0.03) significantly predicted follow-up BP. Initial BP failed to significantly predict subsequent cognitive performance or rCBF. Changes in brain function may precede or co-occur with progression of BP toward hypertensive levels in midlife. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Priors Engaged in Long-Latency Responses to Mechanical Perturbations Suggest a Rapid Update in State Estimation

PubMed Central

Crevecoeur, Frédéric; Scott, Stephen H.

2013-01-01

In every motor task, our brain must handle external forces acting on the body. For example, riding a bike on cobblestones or skating on irregular surface requires us to appropriately respond to external perturbations. In these situations, motor predictions cannot help anticipate the motion of the body induced by external factors, and direct use of delayed sensory feedback will tend to generate instability. Here, we show that to solve this problem the motor system uses a rapid sensory prediction to correct the estimated state of the limb. We used a postural task with mechanical perturbations to address whether sensory predictions were engaged in upper-limb corrective movements. Subjects altered their initial motor response in ∼60 ms, depending on the expected perturbation profile, suggesting the use of an internal model, or prior, in this corrective process. Further, we found trial-to-trial changes in corrective responses indicating a rapid update of these perturbation priors. We used a computational model based on Kalman filtering to show that the response modulation was compatible with a rapid correction of the estimated state engaged in the feedback response. Such a process may allow us to handle external disturbances encountered in virtually every physical activity, which is likely an important feature of skilled motor behaviour. PMID:23966846

Integrated analysis of drug-induced gene expression profiles predicts novel hERG inhibitors.

PubMed

Babcock, Joseph J; Du, Fang; Xu, Kaiping; Wheelan, Sarah J; Li, Min

2013-01-01

Growing evidence suggests that drugs interact with diverse molecular targets mediating both therapeutic and toxic effects. Prediction of these complex interactions from chemical structures alone remains challenging, as compounds with different structures may possess similar toxicity profiles. In contrast, predictions based on systems-level measurements of drug effect may reveal pharmacologic similarities not evident from structure or known therapeutic indications. Here we utilized drug-induced transcriptional responses in the Connectivity Map (CMap) to discover such similarities among diverse antagonists of the human ether-à-go-go related (hERG) potassium channel, a common target of promiscuous inhibition by small molecules. Analysis of transcriptional profiles generated in three independent cell lines revealed clusters enriched for hERG inhibitors annotated using a database of experimental measurements (hERGcentral) and clinical indications. As a validation, we experimentally identified novel hERG inhibitors among the unannotated drugs in these enriched clusters, suggesting transcriptional responses may serve as predictive surrogates of cardiotoxicity complementing existing functional assays.

Integrated Analysis of Drug-Induced Gene Expression Profiles Predicts Novel hERG Inhibitors

PubMed Central

Babcock, Joseph J.; Du, Fang; Xu, Kaiping; Wheelan, Sarah J.; Li, Min

2013-01-01

Growing evidence suggests that drugs interact with diverse molecular targets mediating both therapeutic and toxic effects. Prediction of these complex interactions from chemical structures alone remains challenging, as compounds with different structures may possess similar toxicity profiles. In contrast, predictions based on systems-level measurements of drug effect may reveal pharmacologic similarities not evident from structure or known therapeutic indications. Here we utilized drug-induced transcriptional responses in the Connectivity Map (CMap) to discover such similarities among diverse antagonists of the human ether-à-go-go related (hERG) potassium channel, a common target of promiscuous inhibition by small molecules. Analysis of transcriptional profiles generated in three independent cell lines revealed clusters enriched for hERG inhibitors annotated using a database of experimental measurements (hERGcentral) and clinical indications. As a validation, we experimentally identified novel hERG inhibitors among the unannotated drugs in these enriched clusters, suggesting transcriptional responses may serve as predictive surrogates of cardiotoxicity complementing existing functional assays. PMID:23936032

Macroscopic behavior and fluctuation-dissipation response of stochastic ecohydrological systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porporato, A. M.

2017-12-01

The coupled dynamics of water, carbon and nutrient cycles in ecohydrological systems is forced by unpredictable and intermittent hydroclimatic fluctuations at different time scales. While modeling and long-term prediction of these complex interactions often requires a probabilistic approach, the resulting stochastic equations however are only solvable in special cases. To obtain information on the behavior of the system one typically has to resort to approximation methods. Here we discuss macroscopic equations for the averages and fluctuation-dissipation estimates for the general correlations between the forcing and the ecohydrological response for the soil moisture-plant biomass interaction and the problem of primary salinization and nitrogen retention in soils.

Study of Dynamic Characteristics of Aeroelastic Systems Utilizing Randomdec Signatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, C. S.

1975-01-01

The feasibility of utilizing the random decrement method in conjunction with a signature analysis procedure to determine the dynamic characteristics of an aeroelastic system for the purpose of on-line prediction of potential on-set of flutter was examined. Digital computer programs were developed to simulate sampled response signals of a two-mode aeroelastic system. Simulated response data were used to test the random decrement method. A special curve-fit approach was developed for analyzing the resulting signatures. A number of numerical 'experiments' were conducted on the combined processes. The method is capable of determining frequency and damping values accurately from randomdec signatures of carefully selected lengths.

Effectiveness and acceptance of the intelligent speeding prediction system (ISPS).

PubMed

Zhao, Guozhen; Wu, Changxu

2013-03-01

The intelligent speeding prediction system (ISPS) is an in-vehicle speed assistance system developed to provide quantitative predictions of speeding. Although the ISPS's prediction of speeding has been validated, whether the ISPS can regulate a driver's speed behavior or whether a driver accepts the ISPS needs further investigation. Additionally, compared to the existing intelligent speed adaptation (ISA) system, whether the ISPS performs better in terms of reducing excessive speeds and improving driving safety needs more direct evidence. An experiment was conducted to assess and compare the effectiveness and acceptance of the ISPS and the ISA. We conducted a driving simulator study with 40 participants. System type served as a between-subjects variable with four levels: no speed assistance system, pre-warning system developed based on the ISPS, post-warning system ISA, and combined pre-warning and ISA system. Speeding criterion served as a within-subjects variable with two levels: lower (posted speed limit plus 1 mph) and higher (posted speed limit plus 5 mph) speed threshold. Several aspects of the participants' driving speed, speeding measures, lead vehicle response, and subjective measures were collected. Both pre-warning and combined systems led to greater minimum time-to-collision. The combined system resulted in slower driving speed, fewer speeding exceedances, shorter speeding duration, and smaller speeding magnitude. The results indicate that both pre-warning and combined systems have the potential to improve driving safety and performance. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genomic Prediction Accounting for Genotype by Environment Interaction Offers an Effective Framework for Breeding Simultaneously for Adaptation to an Abiotic Stress and Performance Under Normal Cropping Conditions in Rice.

PubMed

Ben Hassen, Manel; Bartholomé, Jérôme; Valè, Giampiero; Cao, Tuong-Vi; Ahmadi, Nourollah

2018-05-09

Developing rice varieties adapted to alternate wetting and drying water management is crucial for the sustainability of irrigated rice cropping systems. Here we report the first study exploring the feasibility of breeding rice for adaptation to alternate wetting and drying using genomic prediction methods that account for genotype by environment interactions. Two breeding populations (a reference panel of 284 accessions and a progeny population of 97 advanced lines) were evaluated under alternate wetting and drying and continuous flooding management systems. The predictive ability of genomic prediction for response variables (index of relative performance and the slope of the joint regression) and for multi-environment genomic prediction models were compared. For the three traits considered (days to flowering, panicle weight and nitrogen-balance index), significant genotype by environment interactions were observed in both populations. In cross validation, predictive ability for the index was on average lower (0.31) than that of the slope of the joint regression (0.64) whatever the trait considered. Similar results were found for progeny validation. Both cross-validation and progeny validation experiments showed that the performance of multi-environment models predicting unobserved phenotypes of untested entrees was similar to the performance of single environment models with differences in predictive ability ranging from -6% to 4% depending on the trait and on the statistical model concerned. The predictive ability of multi-environment models predicting unobserved phenotypes of entrees evaluated under both water management systems outperformed single environment models by an average of 30%. Practical implications for breeding rice for adaptation to alternate wetting and drying system are discussed. Copyright © 2018, G3: Genes, Genomes, Genetics.

A computer program for analyzing the energy consumption of automatically controlled lighting systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1982-01-01

A computer code to predict the performance of controlled lighting systems with respect to their energy saving capabilities is presented. The computer program provides a mathematical model from which comparisons of control schemes can be made on an economic basis only. The program does not calculate daylighting, but uses daylighting values as input. The program can analyze any of three power input versus light output relationships, continuous dimming with a linear response, continuous dimming with a nonlinear response, or discrete stepped response. Any of these options can be used with or without daylighting, making six distinct modes of control system operation. These relationships are described in detail. The major components of the program are discussed and examples are included to explain how to run the program.

Validation of Framework Code Approach to a Life Prediction System for Fiber Reinforced Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gravett, Phillip

1997-01-01

The grant was conducted by the MMC Life Prediction Cooperative, an industry/government collaborative team, Ohio Aerospace Institute (OAI) acted as the prime contractor on behalf of the Cooperative for this grant effort. See Figure I for the organization and responsibilities of team members. The technical effort was conducted during the period August 7, 1995 to June 30, 1996 in cooperation with Erwin Zaretsky, the LERC Program Monitor. Phil Gravett of Pratt & Whitney was the principal technical investigator. Table I documents all meeting-related coordination memos during this period. The effort under this grant was closely coordinated with an existing USAF sponsored program focused on putting into practice a life prediction system for turbine engine components made of metal matrix composites (MMC). The overall architecture of the NMC life prediction system was defined in the USAF sponsored program (prior to this grant). The efforts of this grant were focussed on implementing and tailoring of the life prediction system, the framework code within it and the damage modules within it to meet the specific requirements of the Cooperative. T'he tailoring of the life prediction system provides the basis for pervasive and continued use of this capability by the industry/government cooperative. The outputs of this grant are: 1. Definition of the framework code to analysis modules interfaces, 2. Definition of the interface between the materials database and the finite element model, and 3. Definition of the integration of the framework code into an FEM design tool.

Time Span of Discretion and Administrative Work in School Systems: Results of a Pilot Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allison, Derek J.; Morfitt, Grace

This paper presents findings of a study that utilized Elliott Jaques' theories of organizational depth structure and time span of discretion in administrative work to examine administrators' responsibilities in two Ontario (Canada) school systems. The theory predicts that the time-span of discretion associated with the administrative tasks will…

Cortisol Predicts Behavioral Dysregulation and Length of Stay among Children Admitted for Psychiatric Inpatient Treatment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luebbe, Aaron M.; Elledge, L. Christian; Kiel, Elizabeth J.; Stoppelbein, Laura

2012-01-01

Individual differences in behavioral regulation system (BRS) and stress response system (SRS) functioning may reflect greater biological sensitivity to context. The current study tested whether children's cortisol, a measure of the SRS, was related to observed dysregulated behavior, an indicator of the BRS, in a sample of children admitted for…

Predictive microbiology: Quantitative science delivering quantifiable benefits to the meat industry and other food industries.

PubMed

McMeekin, T A

2007-09-01

Predictive microbiology is considered in the context of the conference theme "chance, innovation and challenge", together with the impact of quantitative approaches on food microbiology, generally. The contents of four prominent texts on predictive microbiology are analysed and the major contributions of two meat microbiologists, Drs. T.A. Roberts and C.O. Gill, to the early development of predictive microbiology are highlighted. These provide a segue into R&D trends in predictive microbiology, including the Refrigeration Index, an example of science-based, outcome-focussed food safety regulation. Rapid advances in technologies and systems for application of predictive models are indicated and measures to judge the impact of predictive microbiology are suggested in terms of research outputs and outcomes. The penultimate section considers the future of predictive microbiology and advances that will become possible when data on population responses are combined with data derived from physiological and molecular studies in a systems biology approach. Whilst the emphasis is on science and technology for food safety management, it is suggested that decreases in foodborne illness will also arise from minimising human error by changing the food safety culture.

Arabidopsis Defense against Botrytis cinerea: Chronology and Regulation Deciphered by High-Resolution Temporal Transcriptomic Analysis[C][W

PubMed Central

Windram, Oliver; Madhou, Priyadharshini; McHattie, Stuart; Hill, Claire; Hickman, Richard; Cooke, Emma; Jenkins, Dafyd J.; Penfold, Christopher A.; Baxter, Laura; Breeze, Emily; Kiddle, Steven J.; Rhodes, Johanna; Atwell, Susanna; Kliebenstein, Daniel J.; Kim, Youn-sung; Stegle, Oliver; Borgwardt, Karsten; Zhang, Cunjin; Tabrett, Alex; Legaie, Roxane; Moore, Jonathan; Finkenstadt, Bärbel; Wild, David L.; Mead, Andrew; Rand, David; Beynon, Jim; Ott, Sascha; Buchanan-Wollaston, Vicky; Denby, Katherine J.

2012-01-01

Transcriptional reprogramming forms a major part of a plant’s response to pathogen infection. Many individual components and pathways operating during plant defense have been identified, but our knowledge of how these different components interact is still rudimentary. We generated a high-resolution time series of gene expression profiles from a single Arabidopsis thaliana leaf during infection by the necrotrophic fungal pathogen Botrytis cinerea. Approximately one-third of the Arabidopsis genome is differentially expressed during the first 48 h after infection, with the majority of changes in gene expression occurring before significant lesion development. We used computational tools to obtain a detailed chronology of the defense response against B. cinerea, highlighting the times at which signaling and metabolic processes change, and identify transcription factor families operating at different times after infection. Motif enrichment and network inference predicted regulatory interactions, and testing of one such prediction identified a role for TGA3 in defense against necrotrophic pathogens. These data provide an unprecedented level of detail about transcriptional changes during a defense response and are suited to systems biology analyses to generate predictive models of the gene regulatory networks mediating the Arabidopsis response to B. cinerea. PMID:23023172

Callous-unemotional traits and early life stress predict treatment effects on stress and sex hormone functioning in incarcerated male adolescents.

PubMed

Johnson, Megan; Vitacco, Michael J; Shirtcliff, Elizabeth A

2018-03-01

The stress response system is highly plastic, and hormone rhythms may "adaptively calibrate" in response to treatment. This investigation assessed whether stress and sex hormone diurnal rhythms changed over the course of behavioral treatment, and whether callous-unemotional (CU) traits and history of early adversity affected treatment results on diurnal hormone functioning in a sample of 28 incarcerated adolescent males. It was hypothesized that the treatment would have beneficial effects, such that healthier diurnal rhythms would emerge post-treatment. Diurnal cortisol, testosterone, and dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) were sampled two weeks after admission to the correctional/treatment facility, and again approximately four months later. Positive treatment effects were detected for the whole sample, such that testosterone dampened across treatment. CU traits predicted a non-optimal hormone response to treatment, potentially indicating biological preparedness to respond to acts of social dominance and aggression. The interaction between CU traits and adversity predicted a promising and sensitized response to treatment including increased cortisol and a steeper testosterone drop across treatment. Results suggest that stress and sex hormones are highly receptive to treatment during this window of development.

Foresee: A user-centric home energy management system for energy efficiency and demand response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Xin; Baker, Kyri A.; Christensen, Dane T.

This paper presents foresee, a user-centric home energy management system that can help optimize how a home operates to concurrently meet users' needs, achieve energy efficiency and commensurate utility cost savings, and reliably deliver grid services based on utility signals. Foresee is built on a multiobjective model predictive control framework, wherein the objectives consist of energy cost, thermal comfort, user convenience, and carbon emission. Foresee learns user preferences on different objectives and acts on their behalf to operate building equipment, such as home appliances, photovoltaic systems, and battery storage. In this work, machine-learning algorithms were used to derive data-driven appliancemore » models and usage patterns to predict the home's future energy consumption. This approach enables highly accurate predictions of comfort needs, energy costs, environmental impacts, and grid service availability. Simulation studies were performed on field data from a residential building stock data set collected in the Pacific Northwest. Results indicated that foresee generated up to 7.6% whole-home energy savings without requiring substantial behavioral changes. When responding to demand response events, foresee was able to provide load forecasts upon receipt of event notifications and delivered the committed demand response services with 10% or fewer errors. Foresee fully utilized the potential of the battery storage and controllable building loads and delivered up to 7.0-kW load reduction and 13.5-kW load increase. As a result, these benefits are provided while maintaining the occupants' thermal comfort or convenience in using their appliances.« less

Foresee: A user-centric home energy management system for energy efficiency and demand response

DOE PAGES

Jin, Xin; Baker, Kyri A.; Christensen, Dane T.; ...

2017-08-23

This paper presents foresee, a user-centric home energy management system that can help optimize how a home operates to concurrently meet users' needs, achieve energy efficiency and commensurate utility cost savings, and reliably deliver grid services based on utility signals. Foresee is built on a multiobjective model predictive control framework, wherein the objectives consist of energy cost, thermal comfort, user convenience, and carbon emission. Foresee learns user preferences on different objectives and acts on their behalf to operate building equipment, such as home appliances, photovoltaic systems, and battery storage. In this work, machine-learning algorithms were used to derive data-driven appliancemore » models and usage patterns to predict the home's future energy consumption. This approach enables highly accurate predictions of comfort needs, energy costs, environmental impacts, and grid service availability. Simulation studies were performed on field data from a residential building stock data set collected in the Pacific Northwest. Results indicated that foresee generated up to 7.6% whole-home energy savings without requiring substantial behavioral changes. When responding to demand response events, foresee was able to provide load forecasts upon receipt of event notifications and delivered the committed demand response services with 10% or fewer errors. Foresee fully utilized the potential of the battery storage and controllable building loads and delivered up to 7.0-kW load reduction and 13.5-kW load increase. As a result, these benefits are provided while maintaining the occupants' thermal comfort or convenience in using their appliances.« less

Lowland biotic attrition revisited: body size and variation among climate change ‘winners’ and ‘losers’

PubMed Central

Strimas-Mackey, Matthew; Mohd-Azlan, Jayasilan; Granados, Alys; Bernard, Henry; Giordano, Anthony J.; Helmy, Olga E.

2017-01-01

The responses of lowland tropical communities to climate change will critically influence global biodiversity but remain poorly understood. If species in these systems are unable to tolerate warming, the communities—currently the most diverse on Earth—may become depauperate (‘biotic attrition’). In response to temperature changes, animals can adjust their distribution in space or their activity in time, but these two components of the niche are seldom considered together. We assessed the spatio-temporal niches of rainforest mammal species in Borneo across gradients in elevation and temperature. Most species are not predicted to experience changes in spatio-temporal niche availability, even under pessimistic warming scenarios. Responses to temperature are not predictable by phylogeny but do appear to be trait-based, being much more variable in smaller-bodied taxa. General circulation models and weather station data suggest unprecedentedly high midday temperatures later in the century; predicted responses to this warming among small-bodied species range from 9% losses to 6% gains in spatio-temporal niche availability, while larger species have close to 0% predicted change. Body mass may therefore be a key ecological trait influencing the identity of climate change winners and losers. Mammal species composition will probably change in some areas as temperatures rise, but full-scale biotic attrition this century appears unlikely. PMID:28100818

Lowland biotic attrition revisited: body size and variation among climate change 'winners' and 'losers'.

PubMed

Brodie, Jedediah F; Strimas-Mackey, Matthew; Mohd-Azlan, Jayasilan; Granados, Alys; Bernard, Henry; Giordano, Anthony J; Helmy, Olga E

2017-01-25

The responses of lowland tropical communities to climate change will critically influence global biodiversity but remain poorly understood. If species in these systems are unable to tolerate warming, the communities-currently the most diverse on Earth-may become depauperate ('biotic attrition'). In response to temperature changes, animals can adjust their distribution in space or their activity in time, but these two components of the niche are seldom considered together. We assessed the spatio-temporal niches of rainforest mammal species in Borneo across gradients in elevation and temperature. Most species are not predicted to experience changes in spatio-temporal niche availability, even under pessimistic warming scenarios. Responses to temperature are not predictable by phylogeny but do appear to be trait-based, being much more variable in smaller-bodied taxa. General circulation models and weather station data suggest unprecedentedly high midday temperatures later in the century; predicted responses to this warming among small-bodied species range from 9% losses to 6% gains in spatio-temporal niche availability, while larger species have close to 0% predicted change. Body mass may therefore be a key ecological trait influencing the identity of climate change winners and losers. Mammal species composition will probably change in some areas as temperatures rise, but full-scale biotic attrition this century appears unlikely. © 2017 The Author(s).

Predicting response of fuel load to future changes in climate and atmospheric composition in the Southern United States.

Treesearch

Chi Zhang; Hanqin Tian; Yuhang Wang; Tao Zeng; Yongqiang Liu

2010-01-01

The model projected ecosystem carbon dynamics were incorporated into the default (contemporary) fuel load map developed by FCCS (Fuel Characteristic Classification System) to estimate the dynamics of fuel load in the Southern United States in response to projected changes in climate and atmosphere (CO2 and nitrogen deposition) from 2002 to 2050. The study results...

Genome-to-Watershed Predictive Understanding of Terrestrial Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubbard, S. S.; Agarwal, D.; Banfield, J. F.; Beller, H. R.; Brodie, E.; Long, P.; Nico, P. S.; Steefel, C. I.; Tokunaga, T. K.; Williams, K. H.

2014-12-01

Although terrestrial environments play a critical role in cycling water, greenhouse gasses, and other life-critical elements, the complexity of interactions among component microbes, plants, minerals, migrating fluids and dissolved constituents hinders predictive understanding of system behavior. The 'Sustainable Systems 2.0' project is developing genome-to-watershed scale predictive capabilities to quantify how the microbiome affects biogeochemical watershed functioning, how watershed-scale hydro-biogeochemical processes affect microbial functioning, and how these interactions co-evolve with climate and land-use changes. Development of such predictive capabilities is critical for guiding the optimal management of water resources, contaminant remediation, carbon stabilization, and agricultural sustainability - now and with global change. Initial investigations are focused on floodplains in the Colorado River Basin, and include iterative model development, experiments and observations with an early emphasis on subsurface aspects. Field experiments include local-scale experiments at Rifle CO to quantify spatiotemporal metabolic and geochemical responses to O2and nitrate amendments as well as floodplain-scale monitoring to quantify genomic and biogeochemical response to natural hydrological perturbations. Information obtained from such experiments are represented within GEWaSC, a Genome-Enabled Watershed Simulation Capability, which is being developed to allow mechanistic interrogation of how genomic information stored in a subsurface microbiome affects biogeochemical cycling. This presentation will describe the genome-to-watershed scale approach as well as early highlights associated with the project. Highlights include: first insights into the diversity of the subsurface microbiome and metabolic roles of organisms involved in subsurface nitrogen, sulfur and hydrogen and carbon cycling; the extreme variability of subsurface DOC and hydrological controls on carbon and nitrogen cycling; geophysical identification of floodplain hotspots that are useful for model parameterization; and GEWaSC demonstration of how incorporation of identified microbial metabolic processes improves prediction of the larger system biogeochemical behavior.

Real-time estimation of FES-induced joint torque with evoked EMG : Application to spinal cord injured patients.

PubMed

Li, Zhan; Guiraud, David; Andreu, David; Benoussaad, Mourad; Fattal, Charles; Hayashibe, Mitsuhiro

2016-06-22

Functional electrical stimulation (FES) is a neuroprosthetic technique for restoring lost motor function of spinal cord injured (SCI) patients and motor-impaired subjects by delivering short electrical pulses to their paralyzed muscles or motor nerves. FES induces action potentials respectively on muscles or nerves so that muscle activity can be characterized by the synchronous recruitment of motor units with its compound electromyography (EMG) signal is called M-wave. The recorded evoked EMG (eEMG) can be employed to predict the resultant joint torque, and modeling of FES-induced joint torque based on eEMG is an essential step to provide necessary prediction of the expected muscle response before achieving accurate joint torque control by FES. Previous works on FES-induced torque tracking issues were mainly based on offline analysis. However, toward personalized clinical rehabilitation applications, real-time FES systems are essentially required considering the subject-specific muscle responses against electrical stimulation. This paper proposes a wireless portable stimulator used for estimating/predicting joint torque based on real time processing of eEMG. Kalman filter and recurrent neural network (RNN) are embedded into the real-time FES system for identification and estimation. Prediction results on 3 able-bodied subjects and 3 SCI patients demonstrate promising performances. As estimators, both Kalman filter and RNN approaches show clinically feasible results on estimation/prediction of joint torque with eEMG signals only, moreover RNN requires less computational requirement. The proposed real-time FES system establishes a platform for estimating and assessing the mechanical output, the electromyographic recordings and associated models. It will contribute to open a new modality for personalized portable neuroprosthetic control toward consolidated personal healthcare for motor-impaired patients.

What is the benefit of treatment with multiple lines of chemotherapy for patients with metastatic breast cancer? A retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Bakker, J L; Wever, K; van Waesberghe, J H; Beeker, A; Meijers-Heijboer, H; Konings, I R; Verheul, H M W

2015-12-01

Despite the extensive clinical experience, it is still under debate to what extent patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) benefit from multiple lines of chemotherapy beyond standard first or second line treatment. Selection of patients with MBC who will benefit from treatment is crucial to improve outcome and reduce unnecessary toxicity. In this retrospective study, systemic treatment outcome for patients with metastatic MBC is being evaluated. We evaluated to what extent the clinical benefit of prior chemotherapy can predict the success of a subsequent treatment line. Ninety-one patients treated with chemotherapy for MBC between January 2005 and January 2009 were included in this study. Clinical characteristics of patients, choices of chemotherapy and response at first evaluation of every treatment line was evaluated based on radiologic and clinical data. Patients received multiple systemic cytotoxic and biological (combination) therapies. 30% of these patients received more than five consecutive systemic (combination) treatments. First line chemotherapy was mostly anthracycline-based, followed by taxanes, capecitabine and vinorelbine. The response rate (RR, complete response plus partial response according to RECIST 1.1) decreased from 20% (95% CI 11-28%) upon first line of treatment to 0% upon the fourth line. The clinical benefit rate (combining RR and stable disease) decreased from 85% (95% CI 78-93%) in the first to 54% (95% CI 26-67) upon the fourth line. 24% of the patients with clinical benefit at first evaluation did not receive a subsequent line of treatment when progressive disease occurred, while sixty-one percent of the patients with progressive disease at first evaluation of a treatment did not receive a subsequent line of chemotherapy. When applied, the efficacy of a subsequent line of treatment was similar for patients independent of previous treatment benefit. The clinical benefit at first evaluation from systemic treatment in MBC does not predict for subsequent treatment benefit in this retrospective analysis. The fact that 61% of patients did not receive subsequent treatment after previous treatment failure suggests that either clinical judgement is of critical value in selection of patients to prevent them from unnecessary toxicity or, alternatively indicates that based on the assumption that prior treatment failure predicts for lack of benefit undertreatment of patients occurs. Therefore, a more adequate clinical judgement tool or predictive biomarkers for response are urgently needed to improve treatment outcome. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack thereof) come from?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohino, Elsa; Keenlyside, Noel; Pohlmann, Holger

2016-12-01

Previous works suggest decadal predictions of Sahel rainfall could be skillful. However, the sources of such skill are still under debate. In addition, previous results are based on short validation periods (i.e. less than 50 years). In this work we propose a framework based on multi-linear regression analysis to study the potential sources of skill for predicting Sahel trends several years ahead. We apply it to an extended decadal hindcast performed with the MPI-ESM-LR model that span from 1901 to 2010 with 1 year sampling interval. Our results show that the skill mainly depends on how well we can predict the timing of the global warming (GW), the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and, to a lesser extent, the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation signals, and on how well the system simulates the associated SST and West African rainfall response patterns. In the case of the MPI-ESM-LR decadal extended hindcast, the observed timing is well reproduced only for the GW and AMV signals. However, only the West African rainfall response to the AMV is correctly reproduced. Thus, for most of the lead times the main source of skill in the decadal hindcast of West African rainfall is from the AMV. The GW signal degrades skill because the response of West African rainfall to GW is incorrectly captured. Our results also suggest that initialized decadal predictions of West African rainfall can be further improved by better simulating the response of global SST to GW and AMV. Furthermore, our approach may be applied to understand and attribute prediction skill for other variables and regions.

Micro-RNAs as Potential Predictors of Response to Breast Cancer Systemic Therapy: Future Clinical Implications

PubMed Central

Campos-Parra, Alma D.; Cuamani Mitznahuatl, Gerardo; Pedroza-Torres, Abraham; Vázquez Romo, Rafael; Porras Reyes, Fany Iris; López-Urrutia, Eduardo; Pérez-Plasencia, Carlos

2017-01-01

Despite advances in diagnosis and new treatments such as targeted therapies, breast cancer (BC) is still the most prevalent tumor in women worldwide and the leading cause of death. The principal obstacle for successful BC treatment is the acquired or de novo resistance of the tumors to the systemic therapy (chemotherapy, endocrine, and targeted therapies) that patients receive. In the era of personalized treatment, several studies have focused on the search for biomarkers capable of predicting the response to this therapy; microRNAs (miRNAs) stand out among these markers due to their broad spectrum or potential clinical applications. miRNAs are conserved small non-coding RNAs that act as negative regulators of gene expression playing an important role in several cellular processes, such as cell proliferation, autophagy, genomic stability, and apoptosis. We reviewed recent data that describe the role of miRNAs as potential predictors of response to systemic treatments in BC. Furthermore, upon analyzing the collected published information, we noticed that the overexpression of miR-155, miR-222, miR-125b, and miR-21 predicts the resistance to the most common systemic treatments; nonetheless, the function of these particular miRNAs must be carefully studied and further analyses are still necessary to increase knowledge about their role and future potential clinical uses in BC. PMID:28574440

Micro-RNAs as Potential Predictors of Response to Breast Cancer Systemic Therapy: Future Clinical Implications.

PubMed

Campos-Parra, Alma D; Mitznahuatl, Gerardo Cuamani; Pedroza-Torres, Abraham; Romo, Rafael Vázquez; Reyes, Fany Iris Porras; López-Urrutia, Eduardo; Pérez-Plasencia, Carlos

2017-06-02

Despite advances in diagnosis and new treatments such as targeted therapies, breast cancer (BC) is still the most prevalent tumor in women worldwide and the leading cause of death. The principal obstacle for successful BC treatment is the acquired or de novo resistance of the tumors to the systemic therapy (chemotherapy, endocrine, and targeted therapies) that patients receive. In the era of personalized treatment, several studies have focused on the search for biomarkers capable of predicting the response to this therapy; microRNAs (miRNAs) stand out among these markers due to their broad spectrum or potential clinical applications. miRNAs are conserved small non-coding RNAs that act as negative regulators of gene expression playing an important role in several cellular processes, such as cell proliferation, autophagy, genomic stability, and apoptosis. We reviewed recent data that describe the role of miRNAs as potential predictors of response to systemic treatments in BC. Furthermore, upon analyzing the collected published information, we noticed that the overexpression of miR-155, miR-222, miR-125b, and miR-21 predicts the resistance to the most common systemic treatments; nonetheless, the function of these particular miRNAs must be carefully studied and further analyses are still necessary to increase knowledge about their role and future potential clinical uses in BC.

Comparison between the analysis of the loudness dependency of the auditory N1/P2 component with LORETA and dipole source analysis in the prediction of treatment response to the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor citalopram in major depression.

PubMed

Mulert, C; Juckel, G; Augustin, H; Hegerl, U

2002-10-01

The loudness dependency of the auditory evoked potentials (LDAEP) is used as an indicator of the central serotonergic system and predicts clinical response to serotonin agonists. So far, LDAEP has been typically investigated with dipole source analysis, because with this method the primary and secondary auditory cortex (with a high versus low serotonergic innervation) can be separated at least in parts. We have developed a new analysis procedure that uses an MRI probabilistic map of the primary auditory cortex in Talairach space and analyzed the current density in this region of interest with low resolution electromagnetic tomography (LORETA). LORETA is a tomographic localization method that calculates the current density distribution in Talairach space. In a group of patients with major depression (n=15), this new method can predict the response to an selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (citalopram) at least to the same degree than the traditional dipole source analysis method (P=0.019 vs. P=0.028). The correlation of the improvement in the Hamilton Scale is significant with the LORETA-LDAEP-values (0.56; P=0.031) but not with the dipole source analysis LDAEP-values (0.43; P=0.11). The new tomographic LDAEP analysis is a promising tool in the analysis of the central serotonergic system.

A Biopsychological Model of Anti-drug PSA Processing: Developing Effective Persuasive Messages.

PubMed

Hohman, Zachary P; Keene, Justin Robert; Harris, Breanna N; Niedbala, Elizabeth M; Berke, Collin K

2017-11-01

For the current study, we developed and tested a biopsychological model to combine research on psychological tension, the Limited Capacity Model of Motivated Mediated Message Processing, and the endocrine system to predict and understand how people process anti-drug PSAs. We predicted that co-presentation of pleasant and unpleasant information, vs. solely pleasant or unpleasant, will trigger evaluative tension about the target behavior in persuasive messages and result in a biological response (increase in cortisol, alpha amylase, and heart rate). In experiment 1, we assessed the impact of co-presentation of pleasant and unpleasant information in persuasive messages on evaluative tension (conceptualized as attitude ambivalence), in experiment 2, we explored the impact of co-presentation on endocrine system responses (salivary cortisol and alpha amylase), and in experiment 3, we assessed the impact of co-presentation on heart rate. Across all experiments, we demonstrated that co-presentation of pleasant and unpleasant information, vs. solely pleasant or unpleasant, in persuasive communications leads to increases in attitude ambivalence, salivary cortisol, salivary alpha amylase, and heart rate. Taken together, the results support the initial paths of our biopsychological model of persuasive message processing and indicate that including both pleasant and unpleasant information in a message impacts the viewer. We predict that increases in evaluative tension and biological responses will aid in memory and cognitive processing of the message. However, future research is needed to test that hypothesis.

Children’s cortisol and salivary alpha-amylase interact to predict attention bias to threatening stimuli

PubMed Central

Ursache, Alexandra; Blair, Clancy

2017-01-01

Physiological responses to threat occur through both the autonomic nervous system (ANS) and the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis. Activity in these systems can be measured through salivary alpha-amylase (sAA) and salivary cortisol, respectively. Theoretical work and empirical studies have suggested the importance of examining the coordination of these systems in relation to cognitive functioning and behavior problems. Less is known, however, about whether these systems interactively predict more automatic aspects of attention processing such as attention toward emotionally salient threatening stimuli. We used a dot probe task to assess attention bias toward threatening stimuli in 347 kindergarten children. Cortisol and sAA were assayed from saliva samples collected prior to children’s participation in assessments on a subsequent day. Using regression analyses, we examined relations of sAA and cortisol to attention bias. Results indicate that cortisol and sAA interact in predicting attention bias. Higher levels of cortisol predicted greater bias toward threat for children who had high levels of sAA, but predicted greater bias away from threat for children who had low levels of sAA. These results suggest that greater symmetry in HPA and ANS functioning is associated with greater reliance on automatic attention processes in the face of threat. PMID:25455863

Spin torque and Nernst effects in Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya ferromagnets

DOE PAGES

Kovalev, Alexey A.; Zyuzin, Vladimir

2016-04-11

Here, we predict that a temperature gradient can induce a magnon-mediated intrinsic torque in systems with a nontrivial magnon Berry curvature. With the help of a microscopic linear response theory of nonequilibrium magnon-mediated torques and spin currents we identify the interband and intraband components that manifest in ferromagnets with Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interactions and magnetic textures. To illustrate and assess the importance of such effects, we apply the linear response theory to the magnon-mediated spin Nernst and torque responses in a kagome lattice ferromagnet.

Integrated deployment architecture for predictive real-time traffic routing incorporating human factors considerations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-05-01

As Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) are being more widely accessed by drivers, understanding drivers behavioral responses to real-time travel information through ATIS and its consequential benefits are important to the widespread deplo...

Endogenous Opiate System and Systematic Desensitization.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Egan, Kelly J.; And Others

1988-01-01

Administered intravenous infusions to phobic patients prior to systematic desensitization. Saline-infused subjects significantly demonstrated the predicted symptom decrease in response to systematic desensitization, whereas naloxone-infused subjects showed no change. Subject reports and psychophysiological measures of arousal indicated no…

Integrated Modeling for Road Condition Prediction (IMRCP)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-17

Intelligent transportation system deployments have enabled great advances in operational awareness and response based on the data they gather on the current state of the roadways. The next step in decision support is to forecast road conditions and b...

Spatiotemporal Filter for Visual Motion Integration from Pursuit Eye Movements in Humans and Monkeys

PubMed Central

Liu, Bing

2017-01-01

Despite the enduring interest in motion integration, a direct measure of the space–time filter that the brain imposes on a visual scene has been elusive. This is perhaps because of the challenge of estimating a 3D function from perceptual reports in psychophysical tasks. We take a different approach. We exploit the close connection between visual motion estimates and smooth pursuit eye movements to measure stimulus–response correlations across space and time, computing the linear space–time filter for global motion direction in humans and monkeys. Although derived from eye movements, we find that the filter predicts perceptual motion estimates quite well. To distinguish visual from motor contributions to the temporal duration of the pursuit motion filter, we recorded single-unit responses in the monkey middle temporal cortical area (MT). We find that pursuit response delays are consistent with the distribution of cortical neuron latencies and that temporal motion integration for pursuit is consistent with a short integration MT subpopulation. Remarkably, the visual system appears to preferentially weight motion signals across a narrow range of foveal eccentricities rather than uniformly over the whole visual field, with a transiently enhanced contribution from locations along the direction of motion. We find that the visual system is most sensitive to motion falling at approximately one-third the radius of the stimulus aperture. Hypothesizing that the visual drive for pursuit is related to the filtered motion energy in a motion stimulus, we compare measured and predicted eye acceleration across several other target forms. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT A compact model of the spatial and temporal processing underlying global motion perception has been elusive. We used visually driven smooth eye movements to find the 3D space–time function that best predicts both eye movements and perception of translating dot patterns. We found that the visual system does not appear to use all available motion signals uniformly, but rather weights motion preferentially in a narrow band at approximately one-third the radius of the stimulus. Although not universal, the filter predicts responses to other types of stimuli, demonstrating a remarkable degree of generalization that may lead to a deeper understanding of visual motion processing. PMID:28003348

Supersonic Stall Flutter of High Speed Fans. [in turbofan engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adamczyk, J. J.; Stevens, W.; Jutras, R.

1981-01-01

An analytical model is developed for predicting the onset of supersonic stall bending flutter in axial flow compressors. The analysis is based on a modified two dimensional, compressible, unsteady actuator disk theory. It is applied to a rotor blade row by considering a cascade of airfoils whose geometry and dynamic response coincide with those of a rotor blade element at 85 percent of the span height (measured from the hub). The rotor blades are assumed to be unshrouded (i.e., free standing) and to vibrate in their first flexural mode. The effects of shock waves and flow separation are included in the model through quasi-steady, empirical, rotor total-pressure-loss and deviation-angle correlations. The actuator disk model predicts the unsteady aerodynamic force acting on the cascade blading as a function of the steady flow field entering the cascade and the geometry and dynamic response of the cascade. Calculations show that the present model predicts the existence of a bending flutter mode at supersonic inlet Mach numbers. This flutter mode is suppressed by increasing the reduced frequency of the system or by reducing the steady state aerodynamic loading on the cascade. The validity of the model for predicting flutter is demonstrated by correlating the measured flutter boundary of a high speed fan stage with its predicted boundary. This correlation uses a level of damping for the blade row (i.e., the log decrement of the rotor system) that is estimated from the experimental flutter data. The predicted flutter boundary is shown to be in good agreement with the measured boundary.

Estimation of the full-field dynamic response of a floating bridge using Kalman-type filtering algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, Ø. W.; Øiseth, O.; Nord, T. S.; Lourens, E.

2018-07-01

Numerical predictions of the dynamic response of complex structures are often uncertain due to uncertainties inherited from the assumed load effects. Inverse methods can estimate the true dynamic response of a structure through system inversion, combining measured acceleration data with a system model. This article presents a case study of full-field dynamic response estimation of a long-span floating bridge: the Bergøysund Bridge in Norway. This bridge is instrumented with a network of 14 triaxial accelerometers. The system model consists of 27 vibration modes with natural frequencies below 2 Hz, obtained from a tuned finite element model that takes the fluid-structure interaction with the surrounding water into account. Two methods, a joint input-state estimation algorithm and a dual Kalman filter, are applied to estimate the full-field response of the bridge. The results demonstrate that the displacements and the accelerations can be estimated at unmeasured locations with reasonable accuracy when the wave loads are the dominant source of excitation.

Systems analysis of the single photon response in invertebrate photoreceptors.

PubMed

Pumir, Alain; Graves, Jennifer; Ranganathan, Rama; Shraiman, Boris I

2008-07-29

Photoreceptors of Drosophila compound eye employ a G protein-mediated signaling pathway that transduces single photons into transient electrical responses called "quantum bumps" (QB). Although most of the molecular components of this pathway are already known, the system-level understanding of the mechanism of QB generation has remained elusive. Here, we present a quantitative model explaining how QBs emerge from stochastic nonlinear dynamics of the signaling cascade. The model shows that the cascade acts as an "integrate and fire" device and explains how photoreceptors achieve reliable responses to light although keeping low background in the dark. The model predicts the nontrivial behavior of mutants that enhance or suppress signaling and explains the dependence on external calcium, which controls feedback regulation. The results provide insight into physiological questions such as single-photon response efficiency and the adaptation of response to high incident-light level. The system-level analysis enabled by modeling phototransduction provides a foundation for understanding G protein signaling pathways less amenable to quantitative approaches.

Long latency postural responses are functionally modified by cognitive set.

PubMed

Beckley, D J; Bloem, B R; Remler, M P; Roos, R A; Van Dijk, J G

1991-10-01

We examined how cognitive set influences the long latency components of normal postural responses in the legs. We disturbed the postural stability of standing human subjects with sudden toe-up ankle rotations. To influence the subjects' cognitive set, we varied the rotation amplitude either predictably (serial 4 degrees versus serial 10 degrees) or unpredictably (random mixture of 4 degrees and 10 degrees). The subjects' responses to these ankle rotations were assessed from the EMG activity of the tibialis anterior, the medial gastrocnemius, and the vastus lateralis muscles of the left leg. The results indicate that, when the rotation amplitude is predictable, only the amplitude of the long latency (LL) response in tibialis anterior and vastus lateralis varied directly with perturbation size. Furthermore, when the rotation amplitude is unpredictable, the central nervous system selects a default amplitude for the LL response in the tibialis anterior. When normal subjects are exposed to 2 perturbation amplitudes which include the potential risk of falling, the default LL response in tibialis anterior appropriately anticipates the larger amplitude perturbation rather than the smaller or an intermediate one.

Generation of human auditory steady-state responses (SSRs). II: Addition of responses to individual stimuli.

PubMed

Santarelli, R; Maurizi, M; Conti, G; Ottaviani, F; Paludetti, G; Pettorossi, V E

1995-03-01

In order to investigate the generation of the 40 Hz steady-state response (SSR), auditory potentials evoked by clicks were recorded in 16 healthy subjects in two stimulating conditions. Firstly, repetition rates of 7.9 and 40 Hz were used to obtain individual middle latency responses (MLRs) and 40 Hz-SSRs, respectively. In the second condition, eight click trains were presented at a 40 Hz repetition rate and an inter-train interval of 126 ms. We extracted from the whole train response: (1) the response-segment taking place after the last click of the train (last click response, LCR), (2) a modified LCR (mLCR) obtained by clearing the LCR from the amplitude enhancement due to the overlapping of the responses to the clicks preceding the last within the stimulus train. In comparison to MLRs, the most relevant feature of the evoked activity following the last click of the train (LCRs, mLCRs) was the appearance in the 50-110 ms latency range of one (in 11 subjects) or two (in 2 subjects) additional positive-negative deflections having the same periodicity as that of MLR waves. The grand average (GA) of the 40 Hz-SSRs was compared with three predictions synthesized by superimposing: (1) the GA of MLRs, (2) the GA of LCRs, (3) the GA of mLCRs. Both the MLR and mLCR predictions reproduced the recorded signal in amplitude while the LCR prediction amplitude resulted almost twice that of the 40 Hz-SSR. With regard to the phase, the MLR, LCR and mLCR closely predicted the recorded signal. Our findings confirm the effectiveness of the linear addition mechanism in the generation of the 40 Hz-SSR. However the responses to individual stimuli within the 40 Hz-SSR differ from MLRs because of additional periodic activity. These results suggest that phenomena related to the resonant frequency of the activated system may play a role in the mechanisms which interact to generate the 40 Hz-SSR.

Biomarker-Based Prediction Models for Response to Treatment in Systemic Sclerosis-Related Interstitial Lung Disease

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-01

in the baseline samples of the Scleroderma Lung Study II (SLS II). We are currently analyzing whether these serum proteins have predictive...In this project, we use the valuable samples collected in the Scleroderma Lung Study II (SLSII) clinical trial and the observational cohort, GENISOS...determine key serum protein levels and transcript signatures in whole blood and skin samples collected in the SLSII study . The identified candidate

Mechanical response of unidirectional boron/aluminum under combined loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Becker, Wolfgang; Pindera, Marek-Jerzy; Herakovich, Carl T.

1987-01-01

Three test methods were employed to characterize the response of unidirectional Boron/Aluminum metal matrix composite material under monotonic and cyclic loading conditions, namely, losipescu shear, off-axis tension and compression. The characterization of the elastic and plastic response includes the elastic material properties, yielding and subsequent hardening of the unidirectional composite under different stress ratios in the material principal coordinate system. Yield loci generated for different stress ratios are compared for the three different test methods, taking into account residual stresses and specimen geometry. Subsequently, the yield locus for in-plane shear is compared with the prediction of an analytical, micromechanical model. The influence of the scatter in the experimental data on the predicted yield surface is also analyzed. Lastly, the experimental material strengths in tension and compression are correlated with the maximum stress and the Tsai-Wu failure criterion.

The Application of Bone Marrow Transplantation to the Treatment of Genetic Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkman, Robertson

1986-06-01

Genetic diseases can be treated by transplantation of either normal allogeneic bone marrow or, potentially, autologous bone marrow into which the normal gene has been inserted in vitro (gene therapy). Histocompatible allogeneic bone marrow transplantation is used for the treatment of genetic diseases whose clinical expression is restricted to lymphoid or hematopoietic cells. The therapeutic role of bone marrow transplantation in the treatment of generalized genetic diseases, especially those affecting the central nervous system, is under investigation. The response of a generalized genetic disease to allogeneic bone marrow transplantation may be predicted by experiments in vitro. Gene therapy can be used only when the gene responsible for the disease has been characterized. Success of gene therapy for a specific genetic disease may be predicted by its clinical response to allogeneic bone marrow transplantation.

Are narcissists hardy or vulnerable? The role of narcissism in the production of stress-related biomarkers in response to emotional distress.

PubMed

Cheng, Joey T; Tracy, Jessica L; Miller, Gregory E

2013-12-01

Does narcissism provide a source of hardiness or vulnerability in the face of adversity? The present research addressed this question by testing whether narcissism is associated with increased physiological reactivity to emotional distress, among women. Drawing on the "fragile-ego" account, we predicted that narcissists would show a heightened physiological stress profile in response to everyday frustrations. Results supported this prediction; across a 3-day period, highly narcissistic individuals showed elevated output of 2 biomarkers of stress--cortisol and alpha--amylase-to the extent that they experienced negative emotions. In contrast, among those low in narcissism there was no association between these biomarkers and emotions. These findings suggest that narcissists' stress-response systems are particularly sensitive to everyday negative emotions, consistent with the notion that narcissism comes with physiological costs.

Prediction of chemo-response in serous ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Gonzalez Bosquet, Jesus; Newtson, Andreea M; Chung, Rebecca K; Thiel, Kristina W; Ginader, Timothy; Goodheart, Michael J; Leslie, Kimberly K; Smith, Brian J

2016-10-19

Nearly one-third of serous ovarian cancer (OVCA) patients will not respond to initial treatment with surgery and chemotherapy and die within one year of diagnosis. If patients who are unlikely to respond to current standard therapy can be identified up front, enhanced tumor analyses and treatment regimens could potentially be offered. Using the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) serous OVCA database, we previously identified a robust molecular signature of 422-genes associated with chemo-response. Our objective was to test whether this signature is an accurate and sensitive predictor of chemo-response in serous OVCA. We first constructed prediction models to predict chemo-response using our previously described 422-gene signature that was associated with response to treatment in serous OVCA. Performance of all prediction models were measured with area under the curves (AUCs, a measure of the model's accuracy) and their respective confidence intervals (CIs). To optimize the prediction process, we determined which elements of the signature most contributed to chemo-response prediction. All prediction models were replicated and validated using six publicly available independent gene expression datasets. The 422-gene signature prediction models predicted chemo-response with AUCs of ~70 %. Optimization of prediction models identified the 34 most important genes in chemo-response prediction. These 34-gene models had improved performance, with AUCs approaching 80 %. Both 422-gene and 34-gene prediction models were replicated and validated in six independent datasets. These prediction models serve as the foundation for the future development and implementation of a diagnostic tool to predict response to chemotherapy for serous OVCA patients.

CRISPR-Cas: evolution of an RNA-based adaptive immunity system in prokaryotes.

PubMed

Koonin, Eugene V; Makarova, Kira S

2013-05-01

The CRISPR-Cas (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats, CRISPR-associated genes) is an adaptive immunity system in bacteria and archaea that functions via a distinct self-non-self recognition mechanism that is partially analogous to the mechanism of eukaryotic RNA interference (RNAi). The CRISPR-Cas system incorporates fragments of virus or plasmid DNA into the CRISPR repeat cassettes and employs the processed transcripts of these spacers as guide RNAs to cleave the cognate foreign DNA or RNA. The Cas proteins, however, are not homologous to the proteins involved in RNAi and comprise numerous, highly diverged families. The majority of the Cas proteins contain diverse variants of the RNA recognition motif (RRM), a widespread RNA-binding domain. Despite the fast evolution that is typical of the cas genes, the presence of diverse versions of the RRM in most Cas proteins provides for a simple scenario for the evolution of the three distinct types of CRISPR-cas systems. In addition to several proteins that are directly implicated in the immune response, the cas genes encode a variety of proteins that are homologous to prokaryotic toxins that typically possess nuclease activity. The predicted toxins associated with CRISPR-Cas systems include the essential Cas2 protein, proteins of COG1517 that, in addition to a ligand-binding domain and a helix-turn-helix domain, typically contain different nuclease domains and several other predicted nucleases. The tight association of the CRISPR-Cas immunity systems with predicted toxins that, upon activation, would induce dormancy or cell death suggests that adaptive immunity and dormancy/suicide response are functionally coupled. Such coupling could manifest in the persistence state being induced and potentially providing conditions for more effective action of the immune system or in cell death being triggered when immunity fails.

A urine volume measurement system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poppendiek, H. F.; Mouritzen, G.; Sabin, C. M.

1972-01-01

An improved urine volume measurement system for use in the unusual environment of manned space flight is reported. The system utilizes a low time-constant thermal flowmeter. The time integral of the transient response of the flowmeter gives the urine volume during a void as it occurs. In addition, the two phase flows through the flowmeter present no problem. Developments of the thermal flowmeter and a verification of the predicted performance characteristics are summarized.

Alcoholic hepatitis histological score has high accuracy to predict 90-day mortality and response to steroids.

PubMed

Andrade, Patrícia; Silva, Marco; Rodrigues, Susana; Lopes, Joanne; Lopes, Susana; Macedo, Guilherme

2016-06-01

A histological classification system (AHHS) has been recently proposed to predict 90-day mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis (AH). We analyzed the spectrum of histological features in patients with AH and assessed the ability of AHHS for predicting both response to steroids and 90-day mortality. Retrospective study of patients admitted to our tertiary centre between 2010 and 2014 with biopsy-proven AH. Histological features were analyzed and AHHS value was calculated. Kaplan-Meyer curves were calculated to assess the ability of AHHS to predict response to steroids and 90-day mortality. We included 34 patients (70.6% men, mean age 48.5±8.9 years). Transjugular liver biopsy was performed 3.5±2.9 days after admission. Presence of bilirubinostasis (p=0.049), degree of bilirubinostasis (p<0.001), absence of megamitochondria (p<0.001) and degree of polymorphonuclear infiltration (p=0.018) were significantly associated with higher mortality at 90 days. Patients who responded to steroids had a significantly lower AHHS value than non-responders (5.4±0.9 vs 8.1±1.1, p=0.003). AAHS value was significantly higher in patients who died compared to patients who survived at 90 days (9.0±0.7 vs 5.0±0.9, p<0.001). AHHS predicted response to steroids [AUROC 0.90 (CI95% 0.742-1.000), p=0.004] and 90-day mortality [AUROC 1.0 (CI95% 1.0-1.0), p<0.001] with high accuracy. In this cohort of patients, presence and degree of bilirubinostasis, absence of megamitochondria and degree of PMN infiltration were significantly associated with 90-day mortality. AHHS had a high accuracy for predicting response to steroids and 90-day mortality in this cohort of patients. Copyright © 2016 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of Response and Mechanisms of Change in an Organizational Skills Intervention for Students with ADHD

PubMed Central

Becker, Stephen P.; Epstein, Jeffery N.; Vaughn, Aaron J.; Girio-Herrera, Erin

2013-01-01

The purpose of the study was to evaluate predictors of response and mechanisms of change for the Homework, Organization, and Planning Skills (HOPS) intervention for middle school students with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). Twenty-three middle school students with ADHD (grades 6–8) received the HOPS intervention implemented by school mental health providers and made significant improvements in parent-rated materials organization and planning skills, impairment due to organizational skills problems, and homework problems. Predictors of response examined included demographic and child characteristics, such as gender, ethnicity, intelligence, ADHD and ODD symptom severity, and ADHD medication use. Mechanisms of change examined included the therapeutic alliance and adoption of the organization and planning skills taught during the HOPS intervention. Participant implementation of the HOPS binder materials organization system and the therapeutic alliance as rated by the student significantly predicted post-intervention outcomes after controlling for pre-intervention severity. Adoption of the binder materials organization system predicted parent-rated improvements in organization, planning, and homework problems above and beyond the impact of the therapeutic alliance. These findings demonstrate the importance of teaching students with ADHD to use a structured binder organization system for organizing and filing homework and classwork materials and for transferring work to and from school. PMID:24319323

The Mediterranean Decision Support System for Marine Safety dedicated to oil slicks predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zodiatis, G.; De Dominicis, M.; Perivoliotis, L.; Radhakrishnan, H.; Georgoudis, E.; Sotillo, M.; Lardner, R. W.; Krokos, G.; Bruciaferri, D.; Clementi, E.; Guarnieri, A.; Ribotti, A.; Drago, A.; Bourma, E.; Padorno, E.; Daniel, P.; Gonzalez, G.; Chazot, C.; Gouriou, V.; Kremer, X.; Sofianos, S.; Tintore, J.; Garreau, P.; Pinardi, N.; Coppini, G.; Lecci, R.; Pisano, A.; Sorgente, R.; Fazioli, L.; Soloviev, D.; Stylianou, S.; Nikolaidis, A.; Panayidou, X.; Karaolia, A.; Gauci, A.; Marcati, A.; Caiazzo, L.; Mancini, M.

2016-11-01

In the Mediterranean sea the risk from oil spill pollution is high due to the heavy traffic of merchant vessels for transporting oil and gas, especially after the recent enlargement of the Suez canal and to the increasing coastal and offshore installations related to the oil industry in general. The basic response to major oil spills includes different measures and equipment. However, in order to strengthen the maritime safety related to oil spill pollution in the Mediterranean and to assist the response agencies, a multi-model oil spill prediction service has been set up, known as MEDESS-4MS (Mediterranean Decision Support System for Marine Safety). The concept behind the MEDESS-4MS service is the integration of the existing national ocean forecasting systems in the region with the Copernicus Marine Environmental Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and their interconnection, through a dedicated network data repository, facilitating access to all these data and to the data from the oil spill monitoring platforms, including the satellite data ones, with the well established oil spill models in the region. The MEDESS-4MS offer a range of service scenarios, multi-model data access and interactive capabilities to suite the needs of REMPEC (Regional Marine Pollution Emergency Response Centre for the Mediterranean Sea) and EMSA-CSN (European Maritime Safety Agency-CleanseaNet).

Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.

2009-12-01

To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment,more » and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.« less

METCAN: The metal matrix composite analyzer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hopkins, Dale A.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

1988-01-01

Metal matrix composites (MMC) are the subject of intensive study and are receiving serious consideration for critical structural applications in advanced aerospace systems. MMC structural analysis and design methodologies are studied. Predicting the mechanical and thermal behavior and the structural response of components fabricated from MMC requires the use of a variety of mathematical models. These models relate stresses to applied forces, stress intensities at the tips of cracks to nominal stresses, buckling resistance to applied force, or vibration response to excitation forces. The extensive research in computational mechanics methods for predicting the nonlinear behavior of MMC are described. This research has culminated in the development of the METCAN (METal Matrix Composite ANalyzer) computer code.

High fidelity computational characterization of the mechanical response of thermally aged polycarbonate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zesheng; Zhang, Lili; Jasa, John; Li, Wenlong; Gazonas, George; Negahban, Mehrdad

2017-07-01

A representative all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) system of polycarbonate (PC) is built and conditioned to capture and predict the behaviours of PC in response to a broad range of thermo-mechanical loadings for various thermal aging. The PC system is constructed to have a distribution of molecular weights comparable to a widely used commercial PC (LEXAN 9034), and thermally conditioned to produce models for aged and unaged PC. The MD responses of these models are evaluated through comparisons to existing experimental results carried out at much lower loading rates, but done over a broad range of temperatures and loading modes. These experiments include monotonic extension/compression/shear, unilaterally and bilaterally confined compression, and load-reversal during shear. It is shown that the MD simulations show both qualitative and quantitative similarity with the experimental response. The quantitative similarity is evaluated by comparing the dilatational response under bilaterally confined compression, the shear flow viscosity and the equivalent yield stress. The consistency of the in silico response to real laboratory experiments strongly suggests that the current PC models are physically and mechanically relevant and potentially can be used to investigate thermo-mechanical response to loading conditions that would not easily be possible. These MD models may provide valuable insight into the molecular sources of certain observations, and could possibly offer new perspectives on how to develop constitutive models that are based on better understanding the response of PC under complex loadings. To this latter end, the models are used to predict the response of PC to complex loading modes that would normally be difficult to do or that include characteristics that would be difficult to measure. These include the responses of unaged and aged PC to unilaterally confined extension/compression, cyclic uniaxial/shear loadings, and saw-tooth extension/compression/shear.

Utilizing population variation, vaccination, and systems biology to study human immunology

PubMed Central

Tsang, John S.

2016-01-01

The move toward precision medicine has highlighted the importance of understanding biological variability within and across individuals in the human population. In particular, given the prevalent involvement of the immune system in diverse pathologies, an important question is how much and what information about the state of the immune system is required to enable accurate prediction of future health and response to medical interventions. Towards addressing this question, recent studies using vaccination as a model perturbation and systems-biology approaches are beginning to provide a glimpse of how natural population variation together with multiplexed, high-throughput measurement and computational analysis can be used to uncover predictors of immune response quality in humans. Here I discuss recent developments in this emerging field, with emphasis on baseline correlates of vaccination responses, sources of immune-state variability, as well as relevant features of study design, data generation, and computational analysis. PMID:26187853

Buffering social influence: neural correlates of response inhibition predict driving safety in the presence of a peer.

PubMed

Cascio, Christopher N; Carp, Joshua; O'Donnell, Matthew Brook; Tinney, Francis J; Bingham, C Raymond; Shope, Jean T; Ouimet, Marie Claude; Pradhan, Anuj K; Simons-Morton, Bruce G; Falk, Emily B

2015-01-01

Adolescence is a period characterized by increased sensitivity to social cues, as well as increased risk-taking in the presence of peers. For example, automobile crashes are the leading cause of death for adolescents, and driving with peers increases the risk of a fatal crash. Growing evidence points to an interaction between neural systems implicated in cognitive control and social and emotional context in predicting adolescent risk. We tested such a relationship in recently licensed teen drivers. Participants completed an fMRI session in which neural activity was measured during a response inhibition task, followed by a separate driving simulator session 1 week later. Participants drove alone and with a peer who was randomly assigned to express risk-promoting or risk-averse social norms. The experimentally manipulated social context during the simulated drive moderated the relationship between individual differences in neural activity in the hypothesized cognitive control network (right inferior frontal gyrus, BG) and risk-taking in the driving context a week later. Increased activity in the response inhibition network was not associated with risk-taking in the presence of a risky peer but was significantly predictive of safer driving in the presence of a cautious peer, above and beyond self-reported susceptibility to peer pressure. Individual differences in recruitment of the response inhibition network may allow those with stronger inhibitory control to override risky tendencies when in the presence of cautious peers. This relationship between social context and individual differences in brain function expands our understanding of neural systems involved in top-down cognitive control during adolescent development.

Error-dependent modulation of speech-induced auditory suppression for pitch-shifted voice feedback.

PubMed

Behroozmand, Roozbeh; Larson, Charles R

2011-06-06

The motor-driven predictions about expected sensory feedback (efference copies) have been proposed to play an important role in recognition of sensory consequences of self-produced motor actions. In the auditory system, this effect was suggested to result in suppression of sensory neural responses to self-produced voices that are predicted by the efference copies during vocal production in comparison with passive listening to the playback of the identical self-vocalizations. In the present study, event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded in response to upward pitch shift stimuli (PSS) with five different magnitudes (0, +50, +100, +200 and +400 cents) at voice onset during active vocal production and passive listening to the playback. Results indicated that the suppression of the N1 component during vocal production was largest for unaltered voice feedback (PSS: 0 cents), became smaller as the magnitude of PSS increased to 200 cents, and was almost completely eliminated in response to 400 cents stimuli. Findings of the present study suggest that the brain utilizes the motor predictions (efference copies) to determine the source of incoming stimuli and maximally suppresses the auditory responses to unaltered feedback of self-vocalizations. The reduction of suppression for 50, 100 and 200 cents and its elimination for 400 cents pitch-shifted voice auditory feedback support the idea that motor-driven suppression of voice feedback leads to distinctly different sensory neural processing of self vs. non-self vocalizations. This characteristic may enable the audio-vocal system to more effectively detect and correct for unexpected errors in the feedback of self-produced voice pitch compared with externally-generated sounds.

Buffering Social Influence: Neural Correlates of Response Inhibition Predict Driving Safety in the Presence of a Peer

PubMed Central

Cascio, Christopher N.; Carp, Joshua; O'Donnell, Matthew Brook; Tinney, Francis J.; Bingham, C. Raymond; Shope, Jean T.; Ouimet, Marie Claude; Pradhan, Anuj K.; Simons-Morton, Bruce G.; Falk, Emily B.

2016-01-01

Adolescence is a period characterized by increased sensitivity to social cues, as well as increased risk-taking in the presence of peers. For example, automobile crashes are the leading cause of death for adolescents, and driving with peers increases the risk of a fatal crash. Growing evidence points to an interaction between neural systems implicated in cognitive control and social and emotional context in predicting adolescent risk. We tested such a relationship in recently licensed teen drivers. Participants completed an fMRI session in which neural activity was measured during a response inhibition task, followed by a separate driving simulator session 1 week later. Participants drove alone and with a peer who was randomly assigned to express risk-promoting or risk-averse social norms. The experimentally manipulated social context during the simulated drive moderated the relationship between individual differences in neural activity in the hypothesized cognitive control network (right inferior frontal gyrus, BG) and risk-taking in the driving context a week later. Increased activity in the response inhibition network was not associated with risk-taking in the presence of a risky peer but was significantly predictive of safer driving in the presence of a cautious peer, above and beyond self-reported susceptibility to peer pressure. Individual differences in recruitment of the response inhibition network may allow those with stronger inhibitory control to override risky tendencies when in the presence of cautious peers. This relationship between social context and individual differences in brain function expands our understanding of neural systems involved in top–down cognitive control during adolescent development. PMID:25100217

Development of a flood-induced health risk prediction model for Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D.; Block, P. J.

2017-12-01

Globally, many floods occur in developing or tropical regions where the impact on public health is substantial, including death and injury, drinking water, endemic disease, and so on. Although these flood impacts on public health have been investigated, integrated management of floods and flood-induced health risks is technically and institutionally limited. Specifically, while the use of climatic and hydrologic forecasts for disaster management has been highlighted, analogous predictions for forecasting the magnitude and impact of health risks are lacking, as is the infrastructure for health early warning systems, particularly in developing countries. In this study, we develop flood-induced health risk prediction model for African regions using season-ahead flood predictions with climate drivers and a variety of physical and socio-economic information, such as local hazard, exposure, resilience, and health vulnerability indicators. Skillful prediction of flood and flood-induced health risks can contribute to practical pre- and post-disaster responses in both local- and global-scales, and may eventually be integrated into multi-hazard early warning systems for informed advanced planning and management. This is especially attractive for areas with limited observations and/or little capacity to develop flood-induced health risk warning systems.

Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America.

PubMed

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Widlansky, Matthew J; Balmaseda, Magdalena A; Stott, Lowell

2017-07-26

Past severe droughts over North America have led to massive water shortages and increases in wildfire frequency. Triggering sources for multi-year droughts in this region include randomly occurring atmospheric blocking patterns, ocean impacts on atmospheric circulation, and climate's response to anthropogenic radiative forcings. A combination of these sources translates into a difficulty to predict the onset and length of such droughts on multi-year timescales. Here we present results from a new multi-year dynamical prediction system that exhibits a high degree of skill in forecasting wildfire probabilities and drought for 10-23 and 10-45 months lead time, which extends far beyond the current seasonal prediction activities for southwestern North America. Using a state-of-the-art earth system model along with 3-dimensional ocean data assimilation and by prescribing the external radiative forcings, this system simulates the observed low-frequency variability of precipitation, soil water, and wildfire probabilities in close agreement with observational records and reanalysis data. The underlying source of multi-year predictability can be traced back to variations of the Atlantic/Pacific sea surface temperature gradient, external radiative forcings, and the low-pass filtering characteristics of soils.

Predictive value of preoperative inflammatory response biomarkers for metabolic syndrome and post-PCNL systemic inflammatory response syndrome in patients with nephrolithiasis.

PubMed

Tang, Kun; Liu, Haoran; Jiang, Kehua; Ye, Tao; Yan, Libin; Liu, Peijun; Xia, Ding; Chen, Zhiqiang; Xu, Hua; Ye, Zhangqun

2017-10-17

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), derived neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (dNLR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR) were promising biomarkers used to predict diagnosis and prognosis in various inflammatory responses diseases and cancers. However, there have been no reports regarding these biomarkers in kidney stone patients. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of inflammatory biomarkers for metabolic syndrome (MetS) and post-PCNL SIRS in nephrolithiasis patients. We retrospectively enrolled 513 patients with nephrolithiasis and 204 healthy controls. NLR, dNLR, LMR and PLR in nephrolithiasis patients were significantly higher than control group. Patients with renal stone have higher NLR, dNLR, LMR and PLR than those without. ROC curve analysis indicated NLR, dNLR, LMR and PLR for predicting patients with nephrolithiasis and MetS, displayed AUC of 0.730, 0.717, 0.627 and 0.606. Additionally, ROC curves, using post-PCNL SIRS as the end-point for NLR, dNLR, LMR and PLR with AUC of 0.831, 0.813, 0.723 and 0.685. Multivariate analysis revealed that NLR, dNLR represented independent factors for predicting post-PCNL SIRS. While LMR independently associated with MetS. These resluts demonstrate preoperative NLR, dNLR and LMR appears to be effective predictors of post-PCNL SIRS and LMR of MetS in nephrolithiasis patients.

A 1-D model of the nonlinear dynamics of the human lumbar intervertebral disc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marini, Giacomo; Huber, Gerd; Püschel, Klaus; Ferguson, Stephen J.

2017-01-01

Lumped parameter models of the spine have been developed to investigate its response to whole body vibration. However, these models assume the behaviour of the intervertebral disc to be linear-elastic. Recently, the authors have reported on the nonlinear dynamic behaviour of the human lumbar intervertebral disc. This response was shown to be dependent on the applied preload and amplitude of the stimuli. However, the mechanical properties of a standard linear elastic model are not dependent on the current deformation state of the system. The aim of this study was therefore to develop a model that is able to describe the axial, nonlinear quasi-static response and to predict the nonlinear dynamic characteristics of the disc. The ability to adapt the model to an individual disc's response was a specific focus of the study, with model validation performed against prior experimental data. The influence of the numerical parameters used in the simulations was investigated. The developed model exhibited an axial quasi-static and dynamic response, which agreed well with the corresponding experiments. However, the model needs further improvement to capture additional peculiar characteristics of the system dynamics, such as the change of mean point of oscillation exhibited by the specimens when oscillating in the region of nonlinear resonance. Reference time steps were identified for specific integration scheme. The study has demonstrated that taking into account the nonlinear-elastic behaviour typical of the intervertebral disc results in a predicted system oscillation much closer to the physiological response than that provided by linear-elastic models. For dynamic analysis, the use of standard linear-elastic models should be avoided, or restricted to study cases where the amplitude of the stimuli is relatively small.

Wasp waist or beer belly? Modeling food web structure and energetic control in Alaskan marine ecosystems, with implications for fishing and environmental forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaichas, Sarah; Aydin, Kerim; Francis, Robert C.

2015-11-01

The Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) and Gulf of Alaska (GOA) continental shelf ecosystems show some similar and some distinctive groundfish biomass dynamics. Given that similar species occupy these regions and fisheries management is also comparable, similarities might be expected, but to what can we attribute the differences? Different types of ecosystem structure and control (e.g. top-down, bottom-up, mixed) can imply different ecosystem dynamics and climate interactions. Further, the structural type identified for a given ecosystem may suggest optimal management for sustainable fishing. Here, we use information on the current system state derived from food web models of both the EBS and the GOA combined with dynamic ecosystem models incorporating uncertainty to classify each ecosystem by its structural type. We then suggest how this structure might be generally related to dynamics and predictability. We find that the EBS and GOA have fundamentally different food web structures both overall, and when viewed from the perspective of the same commercially and ecologically important species in each system, walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus). EBS food web structure centers on a large mass of pollock, which appears to contribute to relative system stability and predictability. In contrast, GOA food web structure features high predator biomass, which contributes to a more dynamic, less predictable ecosystem. Mechanisms for climate influence on pollock production in the EBS are increasingly understood, while climate forcing mechanisms contributing to the potentially destabilizing high predator biomass in the GOA remain enigmatic. We present results of identical pollock fishing and climate-driven pollock recruitment simulations in the EBS and GOA which show different system responses, again with less predictable response in the GOA. Overall, our results suggest that identifying structural properties of fished food webs is as important for sustainable fisheries management as attempting to predict climate and fisheries effects within each ecosystem.