Numerical Investigation of Temperature Distribution in an Eroded Bend Pipe and Prediction of Erosion Reduced Thickness

PubMed Central

Zhu, Hongjun; Feng, Guang; Wang, Qijun

2014-01-01

Accurate prediction of erosion thickness is essential for pipe engineering. The objective of the present paper is to study the temperature distribution in an eroded bend pipe and find a new method to predict the erosion reduced thickness. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations with FLUENT software are carried out to investigate the temperature field. And effects of oil inlet rate, oil inlet temperature, and erosion reduced thickness are examined. The presence of erosion pit brings about the obvious fluctuation of temperature drop along the extrados of bend. And the minimum temperature drop presents at the most severe erosion point. Small inlet temperature or large inlet velocity can lead to small temperature drop, while shallow erosion pit causes great temperature drop. The dimensionless minimum temperature drop is analyzed and the fitting formula is obtained. Using the formula we can calculate the erosion reduced thickness, which is only needed to monitor the outer surface temperature of bend pipe. This new method can provide useful guidance for pipeline monitoring and replacement. PMID:24719576

Testing Planetary Volcanism Models with Multi-Wavelength Near Infrared Observations of Kilauea Flows and Fountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howell, Robert R.; Radebaugh, Jani; M. C Lopes, Rosaly; Kerber, Laura; Solomonidou, Anezina; Watkins, Bryn

2017-10-01

Using remote sensing of planetary volcanism on objects such as Io to determine eruption conditions is challenging because the emitting region is typically not resolved and because exposed lava cools so quickly. A model of the cooling rate and eruption mechanism is typically used to predict the amount of surface area at different temperatures, then that areal distribution is convolved with a Planck blackbody emission curve, and the predicted spectra is compared with observation. Often the broad nature of the Planck curve makes interpretation non-unique. However different eruption mechanisms (for example cooling fire fountain droplets vs. cooling flows) have very different area vs. temperature distributions which can often be characterized by simple power laws. Furthermore different composition magmas have significantly different upper limit cutoff temperatures. In order to test these models in August 2016 and May 2017 we obtained spatially resolved observations of spreading Kilauea pahoehoe flows and fire fountains using a three-wavelength near-infrared prototype camera system. We have measured the area vs. temperature distribution for the flows and find that over a relatively broad temperature range the distribution does follow a power law matching the theoretical predictions. As one approaches the solidus temperature the observed area drops below the simple model predictions by an amount that seems to vary inversely with the vigor of the spreading rate. At these highest temperatures the simple models are probably inadequate. It appears necessary to model the visco-elastic stretching of the very thin crust which covers even the most recently formed surfaces. That deviation between observations and the simple models may be particularly important when using such remote sensing observations to determine magma eruption temperatures.

Prediction of Skin Temperature Distribution in Cosmetic Laser Surgery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, Kuen; Chen, Kuen-Tasnn; Cheng, Shih-Feng; Lin, Wen-Shiung; Chang, Cheng-Ren

2008-01-01

The use of lasers in cosmetic surgery has increased dramatically in the past decade. To achieve minimal damage to tissues, the study of the temperature distribution of skin in laser irradiation is very important. The phenomenon of the thermal wave effect is significant due to the highly focused light energy of lasers in very a short time period. The conventional Pennes equation does not take the thermal wave effect into account, which the thermal relaxation time (τ) is neglected, so it is not sufficient to solve instantaneous heating and cooling problem. The purpose of this study is to solve the thermal wave equation to determine the realistic temperature distribution during laser surgery. The analytic solutions of the thermal wave equation are compared with those of the Pennes equation. Moreover, comparisons are made between the results of the above equations and the results of temperature measurement using an infrared thermal image instrument. The thermal wave equation could likely to predict the skin temperature distribution in cosmetic laser surgery.

Temperature-dependent development, cold tolerance, and potential distribution of Cricotopus lebetis (Diptera: Chironomidae), a tip miner of Hydrilla verticillata (Hydrocharitaceae).

PubMed

Stratman, Karen N; Overholt, William A; Cuda, James P; Mukherjee, A; Diaz, R; Netherland, Michael D; Wilson, Patrick C

2014-10-15

A chironomid midge, Cricotopus lebetis (Sublette) (Diptera: Chironomidae), was discovered attacking the apical meristems of Hydrilla verticillata (L.f. Royle) in Crystal River, Citrus Co., Florida in 1992. The larvae mine the stems of H. verticillata and cause basal branching and stunting of the plant. Temperature-dependent development, cold tolerance, and the potential distribution of the midge were investigated. The results of the temperature-dependent development study showed that optimal temperatures for larval development were between 20 and 30°C, and these data were used to construct a map of the potential number of generations per year of C. lebetis in Florida. Data from the cold tolerance study, in conjunction with historical weather data, were used to generate a predicted distribution of C. lebetis in the United States. A distribution was also predicted using an ecological niche modeling approach by characterizing the climate at locations where C. lebetis is known to occur and then finding other locations with similar climate. The distributions predicted using the two modeling approaches were not significantly different and suggested that much of the southeastern United States was climatically suitable for C. lebetis. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

Predicting fundamental and realized distributions based on thermal niche: A case study of a freshwater turtle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigues, João Fabrício Mota; Coelho, Marco Túlio Pacheco; Ribeiro, Bruno R.

2018-04-01

Species distribution models (SDM) have been broadly used in ecology to address theoretical and practical problems. Currently, there are two main approaches to generate SDMs: (i) correlative, which is based on species occurrences and environmental predictor layers and (ii) process-based models, which are constructed based on species' functional traits and physiological tolerances. The distributions estimated by each approach are based on different components of species niche. Predictions of correlative models approach species realized niches, while predictions of process-based are more akin to species fundamental niche. Here, we integrated the predictions of fundamental and realized distributions of the freshwater turtle Trachemys dorbigni. Fundamental distribution was estimated using data of T. dorbigni's egg incubation temperature, and realized distribution was estimated using species occurrence records. Both types of distributions were estimated using the same regression approaches (logistic regression and support vector machines), both considering macroclimatic and microclimatic temperatures. The realized distribution of T. dorbigni was generally nested in its fundamental distribution reinforcing theoretical assumptions that the species' realized niche is a subset of its fundamental niche. Both modelling algorithms produced similar results but microtemperature generated better results than macrotemperature for the incubation model. Finally, our results reinforce the conclusion that species realized distributions are constrained by other factors other than just thermal tolerances.

Experimental Analysis of Steel Beams Subjected to Fire Enhanced by Brillouin Scattering-Based Fiber Optic Sensor Data

PubMed Central

Bao, Yi; Chen, Yizheng; Hoehler, Matthew S.; Smith, Christopher M.; Bundy, Matthew; Chen, Genda

2016-01-01

This paper presents high temperature measurements using a Brillouin scattering-based fiber optic sensor and the application of the measured temperatures and building code recommended material parameters into enhanced thermomechanical analysis of simply supported steel beams subjected to combined thermal and mechanical loading. The distributed temperature sensor captures detailed, nonuniform temperature distributions that are compared locally with thermocouple measurements with less than 4.7% average difference at 95% confidence level. The simulated strains and deflections are validated using measurements from a second distributed fiber optic (strain) sensor and two linear potentiometers, respectively. The results demonstrate that the temperature-dependent material properties specified in the four investigated building codes lead to strain predictions with less than 13% average error at 95% confidence level and that the Europe building code provided the best predictions. However, the implicit consideration of creep in Europe is insufficient when the beam temperature exceeds 800°C. PMID:28239230

Statistics of particle time-temperature histories.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hewson, John C.; Lignell, David O.; Sun, Guangyuan

2014-10-01

Particles in non - isothermal turbulent flow are subject to a stochastic environment tha t produces a distribution of particle time - temperature histories. This distribution is a function of the dispersion of the non - isothermal (continuous) gas phase and the distribution of particles relative to that gas phase. In this work we extend the one - dimensional turbulence (ODT) model to predict the joint dispersion of a dispersed particle phase and a continuous phase. The ODT model predicts the turbulent evolution of continuous scalar fields with a model for the cascade of fluctuations to smaller sc ales (themore » 'triplet map') at a rate that is a function of the fully resolved one - dimens ional velocity field . Stochastic triplet maps also drive Lagrangian particle dispersion with finite Stokes number s including inertial and eddy trajectory - crossing effect s included. Two distinct approaches to this coupling between triplet maps and particle dispersion are developed and implemented along with a hybrid approach. An 'instantaneous' particle displacement model matches the tracer particle limit and provide s an accurate description of particle dispersion. A 'continuous' particle displacement m odel translates triplet maps into a continuous velocity field to which particles respond. Particles can alter the turbulence, and modifications to the stochastic rate expr ession are developed for two - way coupling between particles and the continuous phase. Each aspect of model development is evaluated in canonical flows (homogeneous turbulence, free - shear flows and wall - bounded flows) for which quality measurements are ava ilable. ODT simulations of non - isothermal flows provide statistics for particle heating. These simulations show the significance of accurately predicting the joint statistics of particle and fluid dispersion . Inhomogeneous turbulence coupled with the in fluence of the mean flow fields on particles of varying properties alter s particle dispersion. The joint particle - temperature dispersion leads to a distribution of temperature histories predicted by the ODT . Predictions are shown for the lower moments an d the full distributions of the particle positions, particle - observed gas temperatures and particle temperatures. An analysis of the time scales affecting particle - temperature interactions covers Lagrangian integral time scales based on temperature autoco rrelations, rates of temperature change associated with particle motion relative to the temperature field and rates of diffusional change of temperatures. These latter two time scales have not been investigated previously; they are shown to be strongly in termittent having peaked distributions with long tails. The logarithm of the absolute value of these time scales exhibits a distribution closer to normal. A cknowledgements This work is supported by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under their Counter - Weapons of Mass Destruction Basic Research Program in the area of Chemical and Biological Agent Defeat under award number HDTRA1 - 11 - 4503I to Sandia National Laboratories. The authors would like to express their appreciation for the guidance provi ded by Dr. Suhithi Peiris to this project and to the Science to Defeat Weapons of Mass Destruction program.« less

On-board monitoring of 2-D spatially-resolved temperatures in cylindrical lithium-ion batteries: Part I. Low-order thermal modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Robert R.; Zhao, Shi; Howey, David A.

2016-09-01

Estimating the temperature distribution within Li-ion batteries during operation is critical for safety and control purposes. Although existing control-oriented thermal models - such as thermal equivalent circuits (TEC) - are computationally efficient, they only predict average temperatures, and are unable to predict the spatially resolved temperature distribution throughout the cell. We present a low-order 2D thermal model of a cylindrical battery based on a Chebyshev spectral-Galerkin (SG) method, capable of predicting the full temperature distribution with a similar efficiency to a TEC. The model accounts for transient heat generation, anisotropic heat conduction, and non-homogeneous convection boundary conditions. The accuracy of the model is validated through comparison with finite element simulations, which show that the 2-D temperature field (r, z) of a large format (64 mm diameter) cell can be accurately modelled with as few as 4 states. Furthermore, the performance of the model for a range of Biot numbers is investigated via frequency analysis. For larger cells or highly transient thermal dynamics, the model order can be increased for improved accuracy. The incorporation of this model in a state estimation scheme with experimental validation against thermocouple measurements is presented in the companion contribution (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378775316308163)

The intrinsic growth rate as a predictor of population viability under climate warming.

PubMed

Amarasekare, Priyanga; Coutinho, Renato M

2013-11-01

1. Lately, there has been interest in using the intrinsic growth rate (rm) to predict the effects of climate warming on ectotherm population viability. However, because rm is calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, its reliability in predicting population persistence depends on whether ectotherm populations can achieve a stable age/stage distribution in thermally variable environments. Here, we investigate this issue using a mathematical framework that incorporates mechanistic descriptions of temperature effects on vital rates into a stage-structured population model that realistically captures the temperature-induced variability in developmental delays that characterize ectotherm life cycles. 2. We find that populations experiencing seasonal temperature variation converge to a stage distribution whose intra-annual pattern remains invariant across years. As a result, the mean annual per capita growth rate also remains constant between years. The key insight is the mechanism that allows populations converge to a stationary stage distribution. Temperature effects on the biochemical processes (e.g. enzyme kinetics, hormonal regulation) that underlie life-history traits (reproduction, development and mortality) exhibit well-defined thermodynamical properties (e.g. changes in entropy and enthalpy) that lead to predictable outcomes (e.g. reduction in reaction rates or hormonal action at temperature extremes). As a result, life-history traits exhibit a systematic and predictable response to seasonal temperature variation. This in turn leads to temporally predictable temperature responses of the stage distribution and the per capita growth rate. 3. When climate warming causes an increase in the mean annual temperature and/or the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations, the population model predicts the mean annual per capita growth rate to decline to zero within 100 years when warming is slow relative to the developmental period of the organism (0.03-0.05°C per year) and to become negative, causing population extinction, well before 100 years when warming is fast (e.g. 0.1°C per year). The Euler-Lotka equation predicts a slower decrease in rm when warming is slow and a longer persistence time when warming is fast, with the deviation between the two metrics increasing with increasing developmental period. These results suggest that predictions of ectotherm population viability based on rm may be valid only for species with short developmental delays, and even then, only over short time-scales and under slow warming regimes. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Prediction of temperature and HAZ in thermal-based processes with Gaussian heat source by a hybrid GA-ANN model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazli Shahri, Hamid Reza; Mahdavinejad, Ramezanali

2018-02-01

Thermal-based processes with Gaussian heat source often produce excessive temperature which can impose thermally-affected layers in specimens. Therefore, the temperature distribution and Heat Affected Zone (HAZ) of materials are two critical factors which are influenced by different process parameters. Measurement of the HAZ thickness and temperature distribution within the processes are not only difficult but also expensive. This research aims at finding a valuable knowledge on these factors by prediction of the process through a novel combinatory model. In this study, an integrated Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and genetic algorithm (GA) was used to predict the HAZ and temperature distribution of the specimens. To end this, a series of full factorial design of experiments were conducted by applying a Gaussian heat flux on Ti-6Al-4 V at first, then the temperature of the specimen was measured by Infrared thermography. The HAZ width of each sample was investigated through measuring the microhardness. Secondly, the experimental data was used to create a GA-ANN model. The efficiency of GA in design and optimization of the architecture of ANN was investigated. The GA was used to determine the optimal number of neurons in hidden layer, learning rate and momentum coefficient of both output and hidden layers of ANN. Finally, the reliability of models was assessed according to the experimental results and statistical indicators. The results demonstrated that the combinatory model predicted the HAZ and temperature more effective than a trial-and-error ANN model.

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Quasi-distributed fiber bragg grating array sensor for furnace applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, P. Saidi; Sai Prasad, R. L. N.; Sen Gupta, D.; Sai Shankar, M.; Srimannarayana, K.; Ravinder Reddy, P.

2012-05-01

An experimental work on distributed temperature sensing making use of the fiber Bragg grating (FBG) array sensor for possible applications in the monitoring of the temperature profile in high temperature boilers is presented. A special sensor has been designed for this purpose which consists of four FBGs (of wavelengths λ B1 =1545.8 nm, λ B2 =1547 nm, λ B3 =1550.8 nm, λ B4 =1555.5 nm at 30 °C) written in the hydrogen-loaded fiber in line. All the FBGs are encapsulated inside a stainless steel tube using the rigid probe technique for avoiding micro cracks. The spatial distribution of the temperature profile inside a prototype boiler was measured experimentally both in horizontal and vertical directions employing the above sensor, and the results are presented. Further, the finite element simulation has been carried out by using ANSYS R11 software to predict temperature contours in the boiler, and the experimental and predicted results were found to be closely matching.

Anomalous polymer collapse winding angle distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narros, A.; Owczarek, A. L.; Prellberg, T.

2018-03-01

In two dimensions polymer collapse has been shown to be complex with multiple low temperature states and multi-critical points. Recently, strong numerical evidence has been provided for a long-standing prediction of universal scaling of winding angle distributions, where simulations of interacting self-avoiding walks show that the winding angle distribution for N-step walks is compatible with the theoretical prediction of a Gaussian with a variance growing asymptotically as Clog N . Here we extend this work by considering interacting self-avoiding trails which are believed to be a model representative of some of the more complex behaviour. We provide robust evidence that, while the high temperature swollen state of this model has a winding angle distribution that is also Gaussian, this breaks down at the polymer collapse point and at low temperatures. Moreover, we provide some evidence that the distributions are well modelled by stretched/compressed exponentials, in contradistinction to the behaviour found in interacting self-avoiding walks. Dedicated to Professor Stu Whittington on the occasion of his 75th birthday.

Three-dimensional fuel pin model validation by prediction of hydrogen distribution in cladding and comparison with experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aly, A.; Avramova, Maria; Ivanov, Kostadin

To correctly describe and predict this hydrogen distribution there is a need for multi-physics coupling to provide accurate three-dimensional azimuthal, radial, and axial temperature distributions in the cladding. Coupled high-fidelity reactor-physics codes with a sub-channel code as well as with a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool have been used to calculate detailed temperature distributions. These high-fidelity coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics code systems are coupled further with the fuel-performance BISON code with a kernel (module) for hydrogen. Both hydrogen migration and precipitation/dissolution are included in the model. Results from this multi-physics analysis is validated utilizing calculations of hydrogen distribution using models informed bymore » data from hydrogen experiments and PIE data.« less

Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates.

PubMed

Mathewson, Paul D; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik A; Briscoe, Natalie J; Kearney, Michael; Yahn, Jeremiah M; Porter, Warren P

2017-03-01

How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: The American pika under current, past, and future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mathewson, Paul; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik; Briscoe, Natalie; Kearney, Michael T.; Yahn, Jeremiah; Porter, Warren P.

2017-01-01

How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8–19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3–5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans.

Predicting River Macroinvertebrate Communities Distributional Shifts under Future Global Change Scenarios in the Spanish Mediterranean Area

PubMed Central

Sáinz-Bariáin, Marta; Poquet, José Manuel; Rodríguez-López, Roberto

2017-01-01

Several studies on global change over the next century predict increases in mean air temperatures of between 1°C to 5°C that would affect not only water temperature but also river flow. Climate is the predominant environmental driver of thermal and flow regimes of freshwater ecosystems, determining survival, growth, metabolism, phenology and behaviour as well as biotic interactions of aquatic fauna. Thus, these changes would also have consequences for species phenology, their distribution range, and the composition and dynamics of communities. These effects are expected to be especially severe in the Mediterranean basin due its particular climate conditions, seriously threatening Southern European ecosystems. In addition, species with restricted distributions and narrow ecological requirements, such as those living in the headwaters of rivers, will be severely affected. The study area corresponds to the Spanish Mediterranean and Balearic Islands, delimited by the Köppen climate boundary. With the application of the MEDPACS (MEDiterranean Prediction And Classification System) predictive approach, the macroinvertebrate community was predicted for current conditions and compared with three posible scenarios of watertemperature increase and its associated water flow reductions. The results indicate that the aquatic macroinvertebrate communities will undergo a drastic impact, with reductions in taxa richness for each scenario in relation to simulated current conditions, accompanied by changes in the taxa distribution pattern. Accordingly, the distribution area of most of the taxa (65.96%) inhabiting the mid-high elevations would contract and rise in altitude. Thus, families containing a great number of generalist species will move upstream to colonize new zones with lower water temperatures. By contrast, more vulnerable taxa will undergo reductions in their distribution area. PMID:28135280

Experimental and numerical studies of micro PEM fuel cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Rong-Gui; Chung, Chen-Chung; Chen, Chiun-Hsun

2011-10-01

A single micro proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) has been produced using Micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS) technology with the active area of 2.5 cm2 and channel depth of about 500 µm. A theoretical analysis is performed in this study for a novel MEMS-based design of amicro PEMFC. Themodel consists of the conservation equations of mass, momentum, species and electric current in a fully integrated finite-volume solver using the CFD-ACE+ commercial code. The polarization curves of simulation are well correlated with experimental data. Three-dimensional simulations are carried out to treat prediction and analysis of micro PEMFC temperature, current density and water distributions in two different fuel flow rates (15 cm3/min and 40 cm3/min). Simulation results show that temperature distribution within the micro PEMFC is affected by water distribution in the membrane and indicate that low and uniform temperature distribution in the membrane at low fuel flow rates leads to increased membrane water distribution and obtains superior micro PEMFC current density distribution under 0.4V operating voltage. Model predictions are well within those known for experimental mechanism phenomena.

Body temperature null distributions in reptiles with nonzero heat capacity: seasonal thermoregulation in the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis).

PubMed

Seebacher, Frank; Elsey, Ruth M; Trosclair, Phillip L

2003-01-01

Regulation of body temperature may increase fitness of animals by ensuring that biochemical and physiological processes proceed at an optimal rate. The validity of current methods of testing whether or not thermoregulation in reptiles occurs is often limited to very small species that have near zero heat capacity. The aim of this study was to develop a method that allows estimation of body temperature null distributions of large reptiles and to investigate seasonal thermoregulation in the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis). Continuous body temperature records of wild alligators were obtained from implanted dataloggers in winter (n=7, mass range: 1.6-53.6 kg) and summer (n=7, mass range: 1.9-54.5 kg). Body temperature null distributions were calculated by randomising behavioural postures, thereby randomly altering relative animal surface areas exposed to different avenues of heat transfer. Core body temperatures were predicted by calculations of transient heat transfer by conduction and blood flow. Alligator body temperatures follow regular oscillations during the day. Occasionally, body temperature steadied during the day to fall within a relatively narrow range. Rather than indicating shuttling thermoregulation, however, this pattern could be predicted from random movements. Average daily body temperature increases with body mass in winter but not in summer. Daily amplitudes of body temperature decrease with increasing body mass in summer but not in winter. These patterns result from differential exposure to heat transfer mechanisms at different seasons. In summer, alligators are significantly cooler than predictions for a randomly moving animal, and the reverse is the case in winter. Theoretical predictions show, however, that alligators can be warmer in winter if they maximised their sun exposure. We concluded that alligators may not rely exclusively on regulation of body temperature but that they may also acclimatise biochemically to seasonally changing environmental conditions.

Non-equilibrium thermionic electron emission for metals at high temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domenech-Garret, J. L.; Tierno, S. P.; Conde, L.

2015-08-01

Stationary thermionic electron emission currents from heated metals are compared against an analytical expression derived using a non-equilibrium quantum kappa energy distribution for the electrons. The latter depends on the temperature decreasing parameter κ ( T ) , which decreases with increasing temperature and can be estimated from raw experimental data and characterizes the departure of the electron energy spectrum from equilibrium Fermi-Dirac statistics. The calculations accurately predict the measured thermionic emission currents for both high and moderate temperature ranges. The Richardson-Dushman law governs electron emission for large values of kappa or equivalently, moderate metal temperatures. The high energy tail in the electron energy distribution function that develops at higher temperatures or lower kappa values increases the emission currents well over the predictions of the classical expression. This also permits the quantitative estimation of the departure of the metal electrons from the equilibrium Fermi-Dirac statistics.

Atmospheric Ozone 1985. Assessment of our understanding of the processes controlling its present distribution and change, volume 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Topics addressed include: assessment models; model predictions of ozone changes; ozone and temperature trends; trace gas effects on climate; kinetics and photchemical data base; spectroscopic data base (infrared to microwave); instrument intercomparisons and assessments; and monthly mean distribution of ozone and temperature.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, J.; Stewart, J.S.; Mitro, M.

2010-01-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56.0-93.5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1?? C and water 0.8?? C), moderate warming (air 3?? C and water 2.4?? C) and major warming (air 5?? C and water 4?? C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology ?? 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Jana S.; Lyons, John D.; Matt Mitro,

2010-01-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0–93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin.

What Limits the Distribution of Liriomyza huidobrensis and Its Congener Liriomyza sativae in Their Native Niche: When Temperature and Competition Affect Species' Distribution Range in Guatemala.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Castañeda, G; MacVean, C; Cardona, C; Hof, A R

2017-07-01

Factors limiting distribution range for most species are generally unknown regardless of whether they are native or invasive. We studied factors that could enable or restrict the distribution of two cosmopolitan invasive leafminer fly species, Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard) and Liriomyza sativae (Blanchard) in their native niche. In order to test which ecological and environmental factors affect leafminer distribution we conducted thermal tolerance assays, sampled along elevation gradients and modeled species distribution. Findings from the field and rearing chambers showed a physiological restriction due to high temperatures for L. huidobrensis at 28-29 °C, above which adult emergence is compromised. We also found that maximum temperatures below 22 °C, typical of tropical highlands, favored L. huidobrensis. L. sativae was found across a wider temperature range (i.e., from 21 to 36 °C) in Guatemala. Our finding of a physiological threshold in temperature for L. huidobrensis may enable us to predict its invasive risk when combined with the environmental conditions at horticultural ports of entry and the global agricultural landscape. Further, it strengthens our predictions on shifts in distribution of the leafminer fly under future climate. We also found a temperature mediated competitive exclusion interaction between the two herbivore species, where L. sativae occurred at temperatures < 22 °C only in the absence of L. huidobrensis. We show that parasitoids had a negative effect on the leafminer flies, which varied with host plant. Finally, we show the importance of taking a multiaspect approach when investigating what limits distribution and invasiveness of a species. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America.

Simulation of Escherichia coli O157:H7 behavior in fresh-cut lettuce under dynamic temperature conditions during distribution from processing to retail.

PubMed

McKellar, Robin C; LeBlanc, Denyse I; Lu, Jianbo; Delaquis, Pascal

2012-03-01

The temperature of packaged lettuce was recorded throughout a retail supply chain in Canada during the various stages of storage and shipping from the processor to retail. Temperatures were monitored in 27 cases of lettuce destined for three stores in three replicate trials conducted during the winter. A dynamic model that predicts the effect of temperature on the growth or die-off of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in packaged fresh-cut lettuce was applied to simulate the behavior of E. coli O157:H7 in the system. Simulations were carried out using distributions to account for variation in the temperature parameter and the die-off coefficient of the dynamic growth/death model. The results indicate that there was a predicted overall mean decline in cell numbers of 0.983 log cfu g⁻¹ and that the extent of cell death was proportional to the total time spent in the cold chain. Slight growth was predicted in a few instances when the dynamic temperature was above the permissive temperature of 5°C. These results suggest that generally there would be little or no growth of E. coli O157:H7 in product maintained at the proper temperature in the chain. Moreover, the predicted decline in cell numbers at refrigeration temperatures suggests that storage at 5°C or below prior to consumption would reduce populations of the pathogen in fresh-cut lettuce.

A spatially distributed model for the assessment of land use impacts on stream temperature in small urban watersheds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Ning; Yearsley, John; Voisin, Nathalie

2015-05-15

Stream temperatures in urban watersheds are influenced to a high degree by anthropogenic impacts related to changes in landscape, stream channel morphology, and climate. These impacts can occur at small time and length scales, hence require analytical tools that consider the influence of the hydrologic regime, energy fluxes, topography, channel morphology, and near-stream vegetation distribution. Here we describe a modeling system that integrates the Distributed Hydrologic Soil Vegetation Model, DHSVM, with the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model RBM, which has the capability to simulate the hydrology and water temperature of urban streams at high time and space resolutions, as well asmore » a representation of the effects of riparian shading on stream energetics. We demonstrate the modeling system through application to the Mercer Creek watershed, a small urban catchment near Bellevue, Washington. The results suggest that the model is able both to produce realistic streamflow predictions at fine temporal and spatial scales, and to provide spatially distributed water temperature predictions that are consistent with observations throughout a complex stream network. We use the modeling construct to characterize impacts of land use change and near-stream vegetation change on stream temperature throughout the Mercer Creek system. We then explore the sensitivity of stream temperature to land use changes and modifications in vegetation along the riparian corridor.« less

Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection.

PubMed

DeWeber, Jefferson T; Wagner, Tyler

2018-06-01

Predictions of the projected changes in species distributions and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30-day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) known to limit a species' distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold-water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern United States. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid-century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as .2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation actions. Our study demonstrates that even relatively small differences in the definitions of climate metrics can result in very different projections and reveal high uncertainty in predicted climate change effects. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeWeber, Jefferson T.; Wagner, Tyler

2018-01-01

Predictions of the projected changes in species distributions and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30‐day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) known to limit a species’ distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold‐water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern United States. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid‐century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as .2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation actions. Our study demonstrates that even relatively small differences in the definitions of climate metrics can result in very different projections and reveal high uncertainty in predicted climate change effects.

Coupled thermal-fluid-mechanics analysis of twin roll casting of A7075 aluminum alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Yun-Soo; Kim, Hyoung-Wook; Cho, Jae-Hyung; Chun, Se-Hwan

2017-09-01

Better understanding of temperature distribution and roll separation force during twin roll casting of aluminum alloys is critical to successfully fabricate good quality of aluminum strips. Therefore, the simulation techniques are widely applied to understand the twin roll casting process in a comprehensive way and to reduce the experimental time and cost of trial and error. However, most of the conventional approaches are considered thermally coupled flow, or thermally coupled mechanical behaviors. In this study, a fully coupled thermal-fluid-mechanical analysis of twin roll casting of A7075 aluminum strips was carried out using the finite element method. Temperature profile, liquid fraction and metal flow of aluminum strips with different thickness were predicted. Roll separation force and roll temperatures were experimentally obtained from a pilot-scale twin roll caster, and those results were compared with model predictions. Coupling the fluid of the liquid melt to the thermal and mechanical modeling reasonably predicted roll temperature distribution and roll separation force during twin roll casting.

Finite Element Simulation of Temperature and Strain Distribution during Friction Stir Welding of AA2024 Aluminum Alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Rahul; Pal, Surjya Kanta; Singh, Shiv Brat

2017-02-01

Friction Stir Welding (FSW) is a solid state joining process and is handy for welding aluminum alloys. Finite Element Method (FEM) is an important tool to predict state variables of the process but numerical simulation of FSW is highly complex due to non-linear contact interactions between tool and work piece and interdependency of displacement and temperature. In the present work, a three dimensional coupled thermo-mechanical method based on Lagrangian implicit method is proposed to study the thermal history, strain distribution and thermo-mechanical process in butt welding of Aluminum alloy 2024 using DEFORM-3D software. Workpiece is defined as rigid-visco plastic material and sticking condition between tool and work piece is defined. Adaptive re-meshing is used to tackle high mesh distortion. Effect of tool rotational and welding speed on plastic strain is studied and insight is given on asymmetric nature of FSW process. Temperature distribution on the workpiece and tool is predicted and maximum temperature is found in workpiece top surface.

Numerical simulation of the laser welding process for the prediction of temperature distribution on welded aluminium aircraft components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsirkas, S. A.

2018-03-01

The present investigation is focused to the modelling of the temperature field in aluminium aircraft components welded by a CO2 laser. A three-dimensional finite element model has been developed to simulate the laser welding process and predict the temperature distribution in T-joint laser welded plates with fillet material. The simulation of the laser beam welding process was performed using a nonlinear heat transfer analysis, based on a keyhole formation model analysis. The model employs the technique of element ;birth and death; in order to simulate the weld fillet. Various phenomena associated with welding like temperature dependent material properties and heat losses through convection and radiation were accounted for in the model. The materials considered were 6056-T78 and 6013-T4 aluminium alloys, commonly used for aircraft components. The temperature distribution during laser welding process has been calculated numerically and validated by experimental measurements on different locations of the welded structure. The numerical results are in good agreement with the experimental measurements.

General kinetic solution for the Biermann battery with an associated pressure anisotropy generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoeffler, K. M.; Silva, L. O.

2018-01-01

Fully kinetic analytic calculations of an initially Maxwellian distribution with arbitrary density and temperature gradients exhibit the development of temperature anisotropies and magnetic field growth associated with the Biermann battery. The calculation, performed by taking a small order expansion of the ratio of the Debye length to the gradient scale, predicts anisotropies and magnetic fields as a function of space given an arbitrary temperature and density profile. These predictions are shown to qualitatively match the values measured from particle-in-cell simulations, where the development of the Weibel instability occurs at the same location and with a wavenumber aligned with the predicted temperature anisotropy.

Waning habitats due to climate change: the effects of changes in streamflow and temperature at the rear edge of the distribution of a cold-water fish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

María Santiago, José; Muñoz-Mas, Rafael; Solana-Gutiérrez, Joaquín; García de Jalón, Diego; Alonso, Carlos; Martínez-Capel, Francisco; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert; Ribalaygua, Jaime

2017-08-01

Climate changes affect aquatic ecosystems by altering temperatures and precipitation patterns, and the rear edges of the distributions of cold-water species are especially sensitive to these effects. The main goal of this study was to predict in detail how changes in air temperature and precipitation will affect streamflow, the thermal habitat of a cold-water fish (the brown trout, Salmo trutta), and the synergistic relationships among these variables at the rear edge of the natural distribution of brown trout. Thirty-one sites in 14 mountain rivers and streams were studied in central Spain. Models of streamflow were built for several of these sites using M5 model trees, and a non-linear regression method was used to estimate stream temperatures. Nine global climate models simulations for Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were downscaled to the local level. Significant reductions in streamflow were predicted to occur in all of the basins (max. -49 %) by the year 2099, and seasonal differences were noted between the basins. The stream temperature models showed relationships between the model parameters, geology and hydrologic responses. Temperature was sensitive to streamflow in one set of streams, and summer reductions in streamflow contributed to additional stream temperature increases (max. 3.6 °C), although the sites that are most dependent on deep aquifers will likely resist warming to a greater degree. The predicted increases in water temperatures were as high as 4.0 °C. Temperature and streamflow changes will cause a shift in the rear edge of the distribution of this species. However, geology will affect the extent of this shift. Approaches like the one used herein have proven to be useful in planning the prevention and mitigation of the negative effects of climate change by differentiating areas based on the risk level and viability of fish populations.

Summer temperature metrics for predicting brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) distribution in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrish, Donna; Butryn, Ryan S.; Rizzo, Donna M.

2012-01-01

We developed a methodology to predict brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) distribution using summer temperature metrics as predictor variables. Our analysis used long-term fish and hourly water temperature data from the Dog River, Vermont (USA). Commonly used metrics (e.g., mean, maximum, maximum 7-day maximum) tend to smooth the data so information on temperature variation is lost. Therefore, we developed a new set of metrics (called event metrics) to capture temperature variation by describing the frequency, area, duration, and magnitude of events that exceeded a user-defined temperature threshold. We used 16, 18, 20, and 22°C. We built linear discriminant models and tested and compared the event metrics against the commonly used metrics. Correct classification of the observations was 66% with event metrics and 87% with commonly used metrics. However, combined event and commonly used metrics correctly classified 92%. Of the four individual temperature thresholds, it was difficult to assess which threshold had the “best” accuracy. The 16°C threshold had slightly fewer misclassifications; however, the 20°C threshold had the fewest extreme misclassifications. Our method leveraged the volumes of existing long-term data and provided a simple, systematic, and adaptable framework for monitoring changes in fish distribution, specifically in the case of irregular, extreme temperature events.

Visualizing In Situ Microstructure Dependent Crack Tip Stress Distribution in IN-617 Using Nano-mechanical Raman Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yang; Mohanty, Debapriya P.; Tomar, Vikas

2016-11-01

Inconel 617 (IN-617) is a solid solution alloy, which is widely used in applications that require high-temperature component operation due to its high-temperature stability and strength as well as strong resistance to oxidation and carburization. The current work focuses on in situ measurements of stress distribution under 3-point bending at elevated temperature in IN-617. A nanomechanical Raman spectroscopy measurement platform was designed and built based on a combination of a customized open Raman spectroscopy (NMRS) system incorporating a motorized scanning and imaging system with a nanomechanical loading platform. Based on the scanning of the crack tip notch area using the NMRS notch tip, stress distribution under applied load with micron-scale resolution for analyzed microstructures is predicted. A finite element method-based formulation to predict crack tip stresses is presented and validated using the presented experimental data.

Effect of annealing on structural changes and oxygen diffusion in amorphous HfO2 using classical molecular dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Wenqing; Kumari, Niru; Gibson, Gary; Jeon, Yoocharn; Henze, Dick; Silverthorn, Sarah; Bash, Cullen; Kumar, Satish

2018-02-01

Non-volatile memory is a promising alternative to present memory technologies. Oxygen vacancy diffusion has been widely accepted as one of the reasons for the resistive switching mechanism of transition-metal-oxide based resistive random access memory. In this study, molecular dynamics simulation is applied to investigate the diffusion coefficient and activation energy of oxygen in amorphous hafnia. Two sets of empirical potential, Charge-Optimized Many-Body (COMB) and Morse-BKS (MBKS), were considered to investigate the structural and diffusion properties at different temperatures. COMB predicts the activation energy of 0.53 eV for the temperature range of 1000-2000 K, while MBKS predicts 2.2 eV at high temperature (1600-2000 K) and 0.36 eV at low temperature (1000-1600 K). Structural changes and appearance of nano-crystalline phases with increasing temperature might affect the activation energy of oxygen diffusion predicted by MBKS, which is evident from the change in coordination number distribution and radial distribution function. None of the potentials make predictions that are fully consistent with density functional theory simulations of both the structure and diffusion properties of HfO2. This suggests the necessity of developing a better multi-body potential that considers charge exchange.

Predicting Individual Tree and Shrub Species Distributions with Empirically Derived Microclimate Surfaces in a Complex Mountain Ecosystem in Northern Idaho, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holden, Z.; Cushman, S.; Evans, J.; Littell, J. S.

2009-12-01

The resolution of current climate interpolation models limits our ability to adequately account for temperature variability in complex mountainous terrain. We empirically derive 30 meter resolution models of June-October day and nighttime temperature and April nighttime Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) using hourly data from 53 Hobo dataloggers stratified by topographic setting in mixed conifer forests near Bonners Ferry, ID. 66%, of the variability in average June-October daytime temperature is explained by 3 variables (elevation, relative slope position and topographic roughness) derived from 30 meter digital elevation models. 69% of the variability in nighttime temperatures among stations is explained by elevation, relative slope position and topographic dissection (450 meter window). 54% of variability in April nighttime VPD is explained by elevation, soil wetness and the NDVIc derived from Landsat. We extract temperature and VPD predictions at 411 intensified Forest Inventory and Analysis plots (FIA). We use these variables with soil wetness and solar radiation indices derived from a 30 meter DEM to predict the presence and absence of 10 common forest tree species and 25 shrub species. Classification accuracies range from 87% for Pinus ponderosa , to > 97% for most other tree species. Shrub model accuracies are also high with greater than 90% accuracy for the majority of species. Species distribution models based on the physical variables that drive species occurrence, rather than their topographic surrogates, will eventually allow us to predict potential future distributions of these species with warming climate at fine spatial scales.

MLITemp: A computer program to predict the thermal effects associated with hypervelocity impact damage to space station MLI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rule, W. K.; Giridharan, V.

1991-01-01

A family of user-friendly, DOS PC based, Microsoft BASIC programs written to provide spacecraft designers with empirical predictions of space debris damage to orbiting spacecraft are described. Spacecraft wall temperatures and condensate formation is also predicted. The spacecraft wall configuration is assumed to consist of multilayered insulation (MLI) placed between a Whipple style bumper and the pressure wall. Impact damage predictions are based on data sets of experimental results obtained from simulating debris impacts on spacecraft using light gas guns on earth. A module of the program facilitates the creation of the database of experimental results that is used by the damage prediction modules to predict damage to the bumper, the MLI, and the pressure wall. A finite difference technique is used to predict temperature distributions in the pressure wall, the MLI, and the bumper. Condensate layer thickness is predicted for the case where the pressure wall temperature drops below the dew point temperature of the spacecraft atmosphere.

Predictive microbiology in a dynamic environment: a system theory approach.

PubMed

Van Impe, J F; Nicolaï, B M; Schellekens, M; Martens, T; De Baerdemaeker, J

1995-05-01

The main factors influencing the microbial stability of chilled prepared food products for which there is an increased consumer interest-are temperature, pH, and water activity. Unlike the pH and the water activity, the temperature may vary extensively throughout the complete production and distribution chain. The shelf life of this kind of foods is usually limited due to spoilage by common microorganisms, and the increased risk for food pathogens. In predicting the shelf life, mathematical models are a powerful tool to increase the insight in the different subprocesses and their interactions. However, the predictive value of the sigmoidal functions reported in the literature to describe a bacterial growth curve as an explicit function of time is only guaranteed at a constant temperature within the temperature range of microbial growth. As a result, they are less appropriate in optimization studies of a whole production and distribution chain. In this paper a more general modeling approach, inspired by system theory concepts, is presented if for instance time varying temperature profiles are to be taken into account. As a case study, we discuss a recently proposed dynamic model to predict microbial growth and inactivation under time varying temperature conditions from a system theory point of view. Further, the validity of this methodology is illustrated with experimental data of Brochothrix thermosphacta and Lactobacillus plantarum. Finally, we propose some possible refinements of this model inspired by experimental results.

The Effects of Cylinder Head Gasket Opening on Engine Temperature Distribution for a Water-Cooled Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, J. Y.; Chi, G. X.

2017-02-01

In a liquid-cooled engine, coolant is pumped throughout the water jacket of the engine, drawing heat from the cylinder head, pistons, combustion chambers, cylinder walls, and valves, etc. If the engine temperature is too high or too low, various problems will occur. These include overheating of the lubricating oil and engine parts, excessive stresses between engine parts, loss of power, incomplete burning of fuel, etc. Thus, the engine should be maintained at the proper operating temperature. This study investigated the effects of different cylinder head gasket opening on the engine temperature distributions in a water-cooled motorcycle engine. The numerical predictions for the temperature distribution are in good agreement with the experimental data within 20%.

Predicting the Distribution of Commercially Important Invertebrate Stocks under Future Climate

PubMed Central

Russell, Bayden D.; Connell, Sean D.; Mellin, Camille; Brook, Barry W.; Burnell, Owen W.; Fordham, Damien A.

2012-01-01

The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata) inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM) and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery. PMID:23251326

Climatic Factors Driving Invasion of the Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into New Areas of Trentino, Northern Italy

PubMed Central

Castellani, Cristina; Arnoldi, Daniele; Rizzoli, Annapaola

2011-01-01

Background The tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases transmitted by this species in Europe. Therefore, predicting suitable areas of future establishment and spread is essential for planning early prevention and control strategies. Methodology/Principal Findings To identify the areas currently most suitable for the occurrence of the tiger mosquito in the Province of Trento, we combined field entomological observations with analyses of satellite temperature data (MODIS Land Surface Temperature: LST) and human population data. We determine threshold conditions for the survival of overwintering eggs and for adult survival using both January mean temperatures and annual mean temperatures. We show that the 0°C LST threshold for January mean temperatures and the 11°C threshold for annual mean temperatures provide the best predictors for identifying the areas that could potentially support populations of this mosquito. In fact, human population density and distance to human settlements appear to be less important variables affecting mosquito distribution in this area. Finally, we evaluated the future establishment and spread of this species in relation to predicted climate warming by considering the A2 scenario for 2050 statistically downscaled at regional level in which winter and annual temperatures increase by 1.5 and 1°C, respectively. Conclusions/Significance MODIS satellite LST data are useful for accurately predicting potential areas of tiger mosquito distribution and for revealing the range limits of this species in mountainous areas, predictions which could be extended to an European scale. We show that the observed trend of increasing temperatures due to climate change could facilitate further invasion of Ae. albopictus into new areas. PMID:21525991

The response of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to interannual climate variation changes across its range.

PubMed

Kleinhesselink, Andrew R; Adler, Peter B

2018-05-01

Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species' range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species' range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8,175 observations of year-to-year change in sagebrush cover or production from 131 monitoring sites in western North America. We coupled these observations with seasonal weather data for each site and analyzed the effects of spring through fall temperatures and fall through spring accumulated precipitation on annual changes in sagebrush abundance. Sensitivity to annual temperature variation supported our hypothesis: years with above average temperatures were beneficial to sagebrush in colder locations and detrimental to sagebrush in hotter locations. In contrast, sensitivity to precipitation did not change significantly across the distribution of sagebrush. This pattern of responses suggests that regional abundance of this species may be more limited by temperature than by precipitation. We also found important differences in how the ecologically distinct subspecies of sagebrush responded to the effects of precipitation and temperature. Our model predicts that a short-term temperature increase could produce an increase in sagebrush cover at the cold edge of its range and a decrease in cover at the warm edge of its range. This prediction is qualitatively consistent with predictions from species distribution models for sagebrush based on spatial occurrence data, but it provides new mechanistic insight and helps estimate how much and how fast sagebrush cover may change within its range. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Fundamental solutions to the bioheat equation and their application to magnetic fluid hyperthermia.

PubMed

Giordano, Mauricio A; Gutierrez, Gustavo; Rinaldi, Carlos

2010-01-01

Methods of predicting temperature profiles during local hyperthermia treatment are very important to avoid damage to healthy tissue. With this aim, fundamental solutions of Pennes' bioheat equation are derived in rectangular, cylindrical, and spherical coordinates. The medium is idealised as isotropic with effective thermal properties. Temperature distributions due to space- and time-dependent heat sources are obtained by the solution method presented. Applications of the fundamental solutions are addressed with emphasis on a particular problem of Magnetic Fluid Hyperthermia (MFH) consisting of a thin shell of magnetic nanoparticles in the outer surface of a spherical solid tumour. It is observed from the solution of this particular problem that the temperature profiles are strongly dependent on the distribution of the magnetic nanoparticles within the tissue. An almost uniform temperature profile is obtained inside the tumour with little penetration of therapeutic temperatures to the outer region of healthy tissue. The fundamental solutions obtained can be used to develop boundary element methods to predict temperature profiles with more complicated geometries.

Microclimate Data Improve Predictions of Insect Abundance Models Based on Calibrated Spatiotemporal Temperatures.

PubMed

Rebaudo, François; Faye, Emile; Dangles, Olivier

2016-01-01

A large body of literature has recently recognized the role of microclimates in controlling the physiology and ecology of species, yet the relevance of fine-scale climatic data for modeling species performance and distribution remains a matter of debate. Using a 6-year monitoring of three potato moth species, major crop pests in the tropical Andes, we asked whether the spatiotemporal resolution of temperature data affect the predictions of models of moth performance and distribution. For this, we used three different climatic data sets: (i) the WorldClim dataset (global dataset), (ii) air temperature recorded using data loggers (weather station dataset), and (iii) air crop canopy temperature (microclimate dataset). We developed a statistical procedure to calibrate all datasets to monthly and yearly variation in temperatures, while keeping both spatial and temporal variances (air monthly temperature at 1 km² for the WorldClim dataset, air hourly temperature for the weather station, and air minute temperature over 250 m radius disks for the microclimate dataset). Then, we computed pest performances based on these three datasets. Results for temperature ranging from 9 to 11°C revealed discrepancies in the simulation outputs in both survival and development rates depending on the spatiotemporal resolution of the temperature dataset. Temperature and simulated pest performances were then combined into multiple linear regression models to compare predicted vs. field data. We used an additional set of study sites to test the ability of the results of our model to be extrapolated over larger scales. Results showed that the model implemented with microclimatic data best predicted observed pest abundances for our study sites, but was less accurate than the global dataset model when performed at larger scales. Our simulations therefore stress the importance to consider different temperature datasets depending on the issue to be solved in order to accurately predict species abundances. In conclusion, keeping in mind that the mismatch between the size of organisms and the scale at which climate data are collected and modeled remains a key issue, temperature dataset selection should be balanced by the desired output spatiotemporal scale for better predicting pest dynamics and developing efficient pest management strategies.

Microclimate Data Improve Predictions of Insect Abundance Models Based on Calibrated Spatiotemporal Temperatures

PubMed Central

Rebaudo, François; Faye, Emile; Dangles, Olivier

2016-01-01

A large body of literature has recently recognized the role of microclimates in controlling the physiology and ecology of species, yet the relevance of fine-scale climatic data for modeling species performance and distribution remains a matter of debate. Using a 6-year monitoring of three potato moth species, major crop pests in the tropical Andes, we asked whether the spatiotemporal resolution of temperature data affect the predictions of models of moth performance and distribution. For this, we used three different climatic data sets: (i) the WorldClim dataset (global dataset), (ii) air temperature recorded using data loggers (weather station dataset), and (iii) air crop canopy temperature (microclimate dataset). We developed a statistical procedure to calibrate all datasets to monthly and yearly variation in temperatures, while keeping both spatial and temporal variances (air monthly temperature at 1 km² for the WorldClim dataset, air hourly temperature for the weather station, and air minute temperature over 250 m radius disks for the microclimate dataset). Then, we computed pest performances based on these three datasets. Results for temperature ranging from 9 to 11°C revealed discrepancies in the simulation outputs in both survival and development rates depending on the spatiotemporal resolution of the temperature dataset. Temperature and simulated pest performances were then combined into multiple linear regression models to compare predicted vs. field data. We used an additional set of study sites to test the ability of the results of our model to be extrapolated over larger scales. Results showed that the model implemented with microclimatic data best predicted observed pest abundances for our study sites, but was less accurate than the global dataset model when performed at larger scales. Our simulations therefore stress the importance to consider different temperature datasets depending on the issue to be solved in order to accurately predict species abundances. In conclusion, keeping in mind that the mismatch between the size of organisms and the scale at which climate data are collected and modeled remains a key issue, temperature dataset selection should be balanced by the desired output spatiotemporal scale for better predicting pest dynamics and developing efficient pest management strategies. PMID:27148077

[Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Alhagi sparsifolia under climate change].

PubMed

Yang, Xia; Zheng, Jiang-Hua; Mu, Chen; Lin, Jun

2017-02-01

Specific information on geographic distribution of a species is important for its conservation. This study was conducted to determine the potential geographic distribution of Alhagi sparsifolia, which is a plant used in traditional Uighur medicine, and predict how climate change would affect its geographic range. The potential geographic distribution of A. sparsifolia under the current conditions in China was simulated with MaxEnt software based on species presence data at 42 locations and 19 climatic variables. The future distributions of A. sparsifolia were also projected in 2050 and 2070 under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 described in 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).The result showed that mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual mean temperature, precipitation of the coldest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and the temperature annual range were the seven climatic factors influencing the geographic distribution of A. sparsifolia under current climate, the suitable habitats are mainly located in the Xinjiang, in the middle and north of Gansu, in the west of Neimeng, in the north of Nei Monggol. From 2050 to 2070, the model simulations indicated that the suitable habitats of A. sparsifolia would decrease under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and scenarios of RCP8.5 on the whole. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

The prediction of tropopause height from clusters of brightness temperatures and its application in the stratified regression temperature retrievals using microwave and infrared satellite measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Munteanu, M. J.; Piraino, P.; Jakubowicz, O.

1984-01-01

A total of 1575 radiosondes and the corresponding simulated brightness temperatures were used in an effort to derive a temperature retrieval based on the clusters of brightness temperatures. The 8 simulated channels, namely, 3 MSU and 5 IR of the TIROS-N satellite are used by the GLAS temperature retrieval method. The 3 MSU and 5 IR brightness temperatures were clustered into 17 cluster groups and a regression for the prediction of the tropopause height in mb was generated. The overall r.m.s. for the tropopause prediction is excellent, namely, around 16 mb for the summer and 23 mb for the winter. The correct cluster of brightness temperatures can be identified 98% of the time by the method of discriminatory classification if it is approximately a normal distribution or, in general, by the method of the nearest neighbor.

Distribution trends and influence of 4d transition metal elements (Ru, Rh and Pd) doping on mechanical properties and martensitic transformation temperature of B2-ZrCu phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Fuda; Zhan, Yongzhong

2017-12-01

The prediction for distribution trends and effect of three 4d transition metal elements (Ru, Rh and Pd) on mechanical properties and martensitic transformation temperature of B2-ZrCu phase were investigated by first-principles calculations. The convex surface of formation energy suggests that the alloying elements prefer to occupy the Cu sites in B2-ZrCu phase and the dopants studied in present are able to strengthen the phase stability. The calculated results of substitutional formation energy suggest that the distribution trend of dopants in B2-ZrCu phase is Ru > Rh > Pd below the dopant concentration 9 at. %, and the distribution trend is Rh > Pd > Ru from 9 at. % to 12.5 at. %. The elastic constants and mechanical properties including bulk modulus and shear modulus were calculated and discussed. The brittleness/ductility characteristic was investigated using the B/G ratio, Poisson's ratio v and Cauchy pressure Cp. The martensitic transformation temperature (Ms) and melting point (Tm) were predicted by using two cubic elastic moduli (C‧ and C44). The prediction results suggest that only the Ms of Zr8Cu7Pd is higher than the parent. The martensitic transformation temperatures of other compounds decrease with the addition of 4d transition metal dopants. Finally, the electronic structures and electron density different were discussed to reveal the bonding characteristics.

A basin-scale approach to estimating stream temperatures of tributaries to the lower Klamath River, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, L.E.; Flint, A.L.

2008-01-01

Stream temperature is an important component of salmonid habitat and is often above levels suitable for fish survival in the Lower Klamath River in northern California. The objective of this study was to provide boundary conditions for models that are assessing stream temperature on the main stem for the purpose of developing strategies to manage stream conditions using Total Maximum Daily Loads. For model input, hourly stream temperatures for 36 tributaries were estimated for 1 Jan. 2001 through 31 Oct. 2004. A basin-scale approach incorporating spatially distributed energy balance data was used to estimate the stream temperatures with measured air temperature and relative humidity data and simulated solar radiation, including topographic shading and corrections for cloudiness. Regression models were developed on the basis of available stream temperature data to predict temperatures for unmeasured periods of time and for unmeasured streams. The most significant factor in matching measured minimum and maximum stream temperatures was the seasonality of the estimate. Adding minimum and maximum air temperature to the regression model improved the estimate, and air temperature data over the region are available and easily distributed spatially. The addition of simulated solar radiation and vapor saturation deficit to the regression model significantly improved predictions of maximum stream temperature but was not required to predict minimum stream temperature. The average SE in estimated maximum daily stream temperature for the individual basins was 0.9 ?? 0.6??C at the 95% confidence interval. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Generalized statistical mechanics of cosmic rays: Application to positron-electron spectral indices.

PubMed

Yalcin, G Cigdem; Beck, Christian

2018-01-29

Cosmic ray energy spectra exhibit power law distributions over many orders of magnitude that are very well described by the predictions of q-generalized statistical mechanics, based on a q-generalized Hagedorn theory for transverse momentum spectra and hard QCD scattering processes. QCD at largest center of mass energies predicts the entropic index to be [Formula: see text]. Here we show that the escort duality of the nonextensive thermodynamic formalism predicts an energy split of effective temperature given by Δ [Formula: see text] MeV, where T H is the Hagedorn temperature. We carefully analyse the measured data of the AMS-02 collaboration and provide evidence that the predicted temperature split is indeed observed, leading to a different energy dependence of the e + and e - spectral indices. We also observe a distinguished energy scale E *  ≈ 50 GeV where the e + and e - spectral indices differ the most. Linear combinations of the escort and non-escort q-generalized canonical distributions yield excellent agreement with the measured AMS-02 data in the entire energy range.

Fiber optic distributed temperature sensing for fire source localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Miao; Tang, Yuquan; Yang, Shuang; Sigrist, Markus W.; Li, Jun; Dong, Fengzhong

2017-08-01

A method for localizing a fire source based on a distributed temperature sensor system is proposed. Two sections of optical fibers were placed orthogonally to each other as the sensing elements. A tray of alcohol was lit to act as a fire outbreak in a cabinet with an uneven ceiling to simulate a real scene of fire. Experiments were carried out to demonstrate the feasibility of the method. Rather large fluctuations and systematic errors with respect to predicting the exact room coordinates of the fire source caused by the uneven ceiling were observed. Two mathematical methods (smoothing recorded temperature curves and finding temperature peak positions) to improve the prediction accuracy are presented, and the experimental results indicate that the fluctuation ranges and systematic errors are significantly reduced. The proposed scheme is simple and appears reliable enough to locate a fire source in large spaces.

Statistical time-dependent model for the interstellar gas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gerola, H.; Kafatos, M.; Mccray, R.

1974-01-01

We present models for temperature and ionization structure of low, uniform-density (approximately 0.3 per cu cm) interstellar gas in a galactic disk which is exposed to soft X rays from supernova outbursts occurring randomly in space and time. The structure was calculated by computing the time record of temperature and ionization at a given point by Monte Carlo simulation. The calculation yields probability distribution functions for ionized fraction, temperature, and their various observable moments. These time-dependent models predict a bimodal temperature distribution of the gas that agrees with various observations. Cold regions in the low-density gas may have the appearance of clouds in 21-cm absorption. The time-dependent model, in contrast to the steady-state model, predicts large fluctuations in ionization rate and the existence of cold (approximately 30 K), ionized (ionized fraction equal to about 0.1) regions.

Relativistic distribution function for particles with spin at local thermodynamical equilibrium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Becattini, F., E-mail: becattini@fi.infn.it; INFN Sezione di Firenze, Florence; Universität Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main

2013-11-15

We present an extension of relativistic single-particle distribution function for weakly interacting particles at local thermodynamical equilibrium including spin degrees of freedom, for massive spin 1/2 particles. We infer, on the basis of the global equilibrium case, that at local thermodynamical equilibrium particles acquire a net polarization proportional to the vorticity of the inverse temperature four-vector field. The obtained formula for polarization also implies that a steady gradient of temperature entails a polarization orthogonal to particle momentum. The single-particle distribution function in momentum space extends the so-called Cooper–Frye formula to particles with spin 1/2 and allows us to predict theirmore » polarization in relativistic heavy ion collisions at the freeze-out. -- Highlights: •Single-particle distribution function in local thermodynamical equilibrium with spin. •Polarization of spin 1/2 particles in a fluid at local thermodynamical equilibrium. •Prediction of a new effect: a steady gradient of temperature induces a polarization. •Application to the calculation of polarization in relativistic heavy ion collisions.« less

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, USA.

PubMed

Lyons, J; Stewart, J S; Mitro, M

2010-11-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0-93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Finite element method simulating temperature distribution in skin induced by 980-nm pulsed laser based on pain stimulation.

PubMed

Wang, Han; Dong, Xiao-Xi; Yang, Ji-Chun; Huang, He; Li, Ying-Xin; Zhang, Hai-Xia

2017-07-01

For predicting the temperature distribution within skin tissue in 980-nm laser-evoked potentials (LEPs) experiments, a five-layer finite element model (FEM-5) was constructed based on Pennes bio-heat conduction equation and the Lambert-Beer law. The prediction results of the FEM-5 model were verified by ex vivo pig skin and in vivo rat experiments. Thirty ex vivo pig skin samples were used to verify the temperature distribution predicted by the model. The output energy of the laser was 1.8, 3, and 4.4 J. The laser spot radius was 1 mm. The experiment time was 30 s. The laser stimulated the surface of the ex vivo pig skin beginning at 10 s and lasted for 40 ms. A thermocouple thermometer was used to measure the temperature of the surface and internal layers of the ex vivo pig skin, and the sampling frequency was set to 60 Hz. For the in vivo experiments, nine adult male Wistar rats weighing 180 ± 10 g were used to verify the prediction results of the model by tail-flick latency. The output energy of the laser was 1.4 and 2.08 J. The pulsed width was 40 ms. The laser spot radius was 1 mm. The Pearson product-moment correlation and Kruskal-Wallis test were used to analyze the correlation and the difference of data. The results of all experiments showed that the measured and predicted data had no significant difference (P > 0.05) and good correlation (r > 0.9). The safe laser output energy range (1.8-3 J) was also predicted. Using the FEM-5 model prediction, the effective pain depth could be accurately controlled, and the nociceptors could be selectively activated. The FEM-5 model can be extended to guide experimental research and clinical applications for humans.

Effects of elevated mean and extremely high temperatures on the physio-ecological characteristics of geographically distinctive populations of Cunninghamia lanceolata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiaorong; Liao, Huixuan; Peng, Shijia; Peng, Shaolin

2016-12-01

Conventional models for predicting species distribution under global warming scenarios often treat one species as a homogeneous whole. In the present study, we selected Cunninghamia lanceolata (C. lanceolata), a widely distributed species in China, to investigate the physio-ecological responses of five populations under different temperature regimes. The results demonstrate that increased mean temperatures induce increased growth performance among northern populations, which exhibited the greatest germination capacity and largest increase in the overlap between the growth curve and the monthly average temperature. However,tolerance of the southern population to extremely high temperatures was stronger than among the population from the northern region,shown by the best growth and the most stable photosynthetic system of the southern population under extremely high temperature. This result indicates that the growth advantage among northern populations due to increased mean temperatures may be weakened by lower tolerance to extremely high temperatures. This finding is antithetical to the predicted results. The theoretical coupling model constructed here illustrates that the difference in growth between populations at high and low latitudes and altitudes under global warming will decrease because of the frequent occurrence of extremely high temperatures.

Effect of Interfacial Turbulence and Accommodation Coefficient on CFD Predictions of Pressurization and Pressure Control in Cryogenic Storage Tank

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kassemi, Mohammad; Kartuzova, Olga; Hylton, Sonya

2015-01-01

Laminar models agree closely with the pressure evolution and vapor phase temperature stratification but under-predict liquid temperatures. Turbulent SST k-w and k-e models under-predict the pressurization rate and extent of stratification in the vapor but represent liquid temperature distributions fairly well. These conclusions seem to equally apply to large cryogenic tank simulations as well as small scale simulant fluid pressurization cases. Appropriate turbulent models that represent both interfacial and bulk vapor phase turbulence with greater fidelity are needed. Application of LES models to the tank pressurization problem can serve as a starting point.

Numerical investigations of arc behaviour in gas metal arc welding using ANSYS CFX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnick, M.; Fuessel, U.; Hertel, M.; Spille-Kohoff, A.; Murphy, A. B.

2011-06-01

Current numerical models of gas metal arc welding (GMAW) are trying to combine magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models of the arc and volume of fluid (VoF) models of metal transfer. They neglect vaporization and assume an argon atmosphere for the arc region, as it is common practice for models of gas tungsten arc welding. These models predict temperatures above 20 000 K and a temperature distribution similar to tungsten inert gas (TIG) arcs. However, current spectroscopic temperature measurements in GMAW arcs demonstrate much lower arc temperatures. In contrast to TIG arcs they found a central local minimum of the radial temperature distribution. The paper presents a GMAW arc model that considers metal vapour and which is in a very good agreement with experimentally observed temperatures. Furthermore, the model is able to predict the local central minimum in the radial temperature and the radial electric current density distributions for the first time. The axially symmetric model of the welding torch, the work piece, the wire and the arc (fluid domain) implements MHD as well as turbulent mixing and thermal demixing of metal vapour in argon. The mass fraction of iron vapour obtained from the simulation shows an accumulation in the arc core and another accumulation on the fringes of the arc at 2000 to 5000 K. The demixing effects lead to very low concentrations of iron between these two regions. Sensitive analyses demonstrate the influence of the transport and radiation properties of metal vapour, and the evaporation rate relative to the wire feed. Finally the model predictions are compared with the measuring results of Zielińska et al.

Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds illustrate strong distributional responses of tropical montane species to global warming

PubMed Central

Freeman, Benjamin G.; Class Freeman, Alexandra M.

2014-01-01

Temperate-zone species have responded to warming temperatures by shifting their distributions poleward and upslope. Thermal tolerance data suggests that tropical species may respond to warming temperatures even more strongly than temperate-zone species, but this prediction has yet to be tested. We addressed this data gap by conducting resurveys to measure distributional responses to temperature increases in the elevational limits of the avifaunas of two geographically and faunally independent New Guinean mountains, Mt. Karimui and Karkar Island, 47 and 44 y after they were originally surveyed. Although species richness is roughly five times greater on mainland Mt. Karimui than oceanic Karkar Island, distributional shifts at both sites were similar: upslope shifts averaged 113 m (Mt. Karimui) and 152 m (Karkar Island) for upper limits and 95 m (Mt. Karimui) and 123 m (Karkar Island) for lower limits. We incorporated these results into a metaanalysis to compare distributional responses of tropical species with those of temperate-zone species, finding that average upslope shifts in tropical montane species match local temperature increases significantly more closely than in temperate-zone montane species. That tropical species appear to be strong responders has global conservation implications and provides empirical support to hitherto untested models that predict widespread extinctions in upper-elevation tropical endemics with small ranges. PMID:24550460

What are the most crucial soil factors for predicting the distribution of alpine plant species?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buri, A.; Pinto-Figueroa, E.; Yashiro, E.; Guisan, A.

2017-12-01

Nowadays the use of species distribution models (SDM) is common to predict in space and time the distribution of organisms living in the critical zone. The realized environmental niche concept behind the development of SDM imply that many environmental factors must be accounted for simultaneously to predict species distributions. Climatic and topographic factors are often primary included, whereas soil factors are frequently neglected, mainly due to the paucity of soil information available spatially and temporally. Furthermore, among existing studies, most included soil pH only, or few other soil parameters. In this study we aimed at identifying what are the most crucial soil factors for explaining alpine plant distributions and, among those identified, which ones further improve the predictive power of plant SDMs. To test the relative importance of the soil factors, we performed plant SDMs using as predictors 52 measured soil properties of various types such as organic/inorganic compounds, chemical/physical properties, water related variables, mineral composition or grain size distribution. We added them separately to a standard set of topo-climatic predictors (temperature, slope, solar radiation and topographic position). We used ensemble forecasting techniques combining together several predictive algorithms to model the distribution of 116 plant species over 250 sites in the Swiss Alps. We recorded the variable importance for each model and compared the quality of the models including different soil proprieties (one at a time) as predictors to models having only topo-climatic variables as predictors. Results show that 46% of the soil proprieties tested become the second most important variable, after air temperature, to explain spatial distribution of alpine plants species. Moreover, we also assessed that addition of certain soil factors, such as bulk soil water density, could improve over 80% the quality of some plant species models. We confirm that soil pH remains one of the most important soil factor for predicting plant species distributions, closely followed by water, organic and inorganic carbon related properties. Finally, we were able to extract three main categories of important soil properties for plant species distributions: grain size distribution, acidity and water in the soil.

A physically-based Mie–Gruneisen equation of state to determine hot spot temperature distributions

DOE PAGES

Kittell, David Erik; Yarrington, Cole Davis

2016-07-14

Here, a physically-based form of the Mie–Grüneisen equation of state (EOS) is derived for calculating 1d planar shock temperatures, as well as hot spot temperature distributions from heterogeneous impact simulations. This form utilises a multi-term Einstein oscillator model for specific heat, and is completely algebraic in terms of temperature, volume, an integrating factor, and the cold curve energy. Moreover, any empirical relation for the reference pressure and energy may be substituted into the equations via the use of a generalised reference function. The complete EOS is then applied to calculations of the Hugoniot temperature and simulation of hydrodynamic pore collapsemore » using data for the secondary explosive, hexanitrostilbene (HNS). From these results, it is shown that the choice of EOS is even more significant for determining hot spot temperature distributions than planar shock states. The complete EOS is also compared to an alternative derivation assuming that specific heat is a function of temperature alone, i.e. cv(T). Temperature discrepancies on the order of 100–600 K were observed corresponding to the shock pressures required to initiate HNS (near 10 GPa). Overall, the results of this work will improve confidence in temperature predictions. By adopting this EOS, future work may be able to assign physical meaning to other thermally sensitive constitutive model parameters necessary to predict the shock initiation and detonation of heterogeneous explosives.« less

Nanoscale hotspots due to nonequilibrium thermal transport.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sinha, Sanjiv; Goodson, Kenneth E.

2004-01-01

Recent experimental and modeling efforts have been directed towards the issue of temperature localization and hotspot formation in the vicinity of nanoscale heat generating devices. The nonequilibrium transport conditions which develop around these nanoscale devices results in elevated temperatures near the heat source which can not be predicted by continuum diffusion theory. Efforts to determine the severity of this temperature localization phenomena in silicon devices near and above room temperature are of technological importance to the development of microelectronics and other nanotechnologies. In this work, we have developed a new modeling tool in order to explore the magnitude of themore » additional thermal resistance which forms around nanoscale hotspots from temperatures of 100-1000K. The models are based on a two fluid approximation in which thermal energy is transferred between ''stationary'' optical phonons and fast propagating acoustic phonon modes. The results of the model have shown excellent agreement with experimental results of localized hotspots in silicon at lower temperatures. The model predicts that the effect of added thermal resistance due to the nonequilibrium phonon distribution is greatest at lower temperatures, but is maintained out to temperatures of 1000K. The resistance predicted by the numerical code can be easily integrated with continuum models in order to predict the temperature distribution around nanoscale heat sources with improved accuracy. Additional research efforts also focused on the measurements of the thermal resistance of silicon thin films at higher temperatures, with a focus on polycrystalline silicon. This work was intended to provide much needed experimental data on the thermal transport properties for micro and nanoscale devices built with this material. Initial experiments have shown that the exposure of polycrystalline silicon to high temperatures may induce recrystallization and radically increase the thermal transport properties at room temperature. In addition, the defect density was observed to play a major role in the rate of change in thermal resistivity as a function of temperature.« less

The Importance of Biologically Relevant Microclimates in Habitat Suitability Assessments

PubMed Central

Varner, Johanna; Dearing, M. Denise

2014-01-01

Predicting habitat suitability under climate change is vital to conserving biodiversity. However, current species distribution models rely on coarse scale climate data, whereas fine scale microclimate data may be necessary to assess habitat suitability and generate predictive models. Here, we evaluate disparities between temperature data at the coarse scale from weather stations versus fine-scale data measured in microhabitats required for a climate-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). We collected two years of temperature data in occupied talus habitats predicted to be suitable (high elevation) and unsuitable (low elevation) by the bioclimatic envelope approach. At low elevations, talus surface and interstitial microclimates drastically differed from ambient temperatures measured on-site and at a nearby weather station. Interstitial talus temperatures were frequently decoupled from high ambient temperatures, resulting in instantaneous disparities of over 30°C between these two measurements. Microhabitat temperatures were also highly heterogeneous, such that temperature measurements within the same patch of talus were not more correlated than measurements at distant patches. An experimental manipulation revealed that vegetation cover may cool the talus surface by up to 10°C during the summer, which may contribute to this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, low elevation microclimates were milder and less variable than typical alpine habitat, suggesting that, counter to species distribution model predictions, these seemingly unsuitable habitats may actually be better refugia for this species under climate change. These results highlight the importance of fine-scale microhabitat data in habitat assessments and underscore the notion that some critical refugia may be counterintuitive. PMID:25115894

The importance of biologically relevant microclimates in habitat suitability assessments.

PubMed

Varner, Johanna; Dearing, M Denise

2014-01-01

Predicting habitat suitability under climate change is vital to conserving biodiversity. However, current species distribution models rely on coarse scale climate data, whereas fine scale microclimate data may be necessary to assess habitat suitability and generate predictive models. Here, we evaluate disparities between temperature data at the coarse scale from weather stations versus fine-scale data measured in microhabitats required for a climate-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). We collected two years of temperature data in occupied talus habitats predicted to be suitable (high elevation) and unsuitable (low elevation) by the bioclimatic envelope approach. At low elevations, talus surface and interstitial microclimates drastically differed from ambient temperatures measured on-site and at a nearby weather station. Interstitial talus temperatures were frequently decoupled from high ambient temperatures, resulting in instantaneous disparities of over 30 °C between these two measurements. Microhabitat temperatures were also highly heterogeneous, such that temperature measurements within the same patch of talus were not more correlated than measurements at distant patches. An experimental manipulation revealed that vegetation cover may cool the talus surface by up to 10 °C during the summer, which may contribute to this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, low elevation microclimates were milder and less variable than typical alpine habitat, suggesting that, counter to species distribution model predictions, these seemingly unsuitable habitats may actually be better refugia for this species under climate change. These results highlight the importance of fine-scale microhabitat data in habitat assessments and underscore the notion that some critical refugia may be counterintuitive.

Modelling of gas-metal arc welding taking into account metal vapour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnick, M.; Fuessel, U.; Hertel, M.; Haessler, M.; Spille-Kohoff, A.; Murphy, A. B.

2010-11-01

The most advanced numerical models of gas-metal arc welding (GMAW) neglect vaporization of metal, and assume an argon atmosphere for the arc region, as is also common practice for models of gas-tungsten arc welding (GTAW). These models predict temperatures above 20 000 K and a temperature distribution similar to GTAW arcs. However, spectroscopic temperature measurements in GMAW arcs demonstrate much lower arc temperatures. In contrast to measurements of GTAW arcs, they have shown the presence of a central local minimum of the radial temperature distribution. This paper presents a GMAW model that takes into account metal vapour and that is able to predict the local central minimum in the radial distributions of temperature and electric current density. The influence of different values for the net radiative emission coefficient of iron vapour, which vary by up to a factor of hundred, is examined. It is shown that these net emission coefficients cause differences in the magnitudes, but not in the overall trends, of the radial distribution of temperature and current density. Further, the influence of the metal vaporization rate is investigated. We present evidence that, for higher vaporization rates, the central flow velocity inside the arc is decreased and can even change direction so that it is directed from the workpiece towards the wire, although the outer plasma flow is still directed towards the workpiece. In support of this thesis, we have attempted to reproduce the measurements of Zielińska et al for spray-transfer mode GMAW numerically, and have obtained reasonable agreement.

Thermal and hydrologic responses to climate change predict marked alterations in boreal stream invertebrate assemblages.

PubMed

Mustonen, Kaisa-Riikka; Mykrä, Heikki; Marttila, Hannu; Sarremejane, Romain; Veijalainen, Noora; Sippel, Kalle; Muotka, Timo; Hawkins, Charles P

2018-06-01

Air temperature at the northernmost latitudes is predicted to increase steeply and precipitation to become more variable by the end of the 21st century, resulting in altered thermal and hydrological regimes. We applied five climate scenarios to predict the future (2070-2100) benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages at 239 near-pristine sites across Finland (ca. 1200 km latitudinal span). We used a multitaxon distribution model with air temperature and modeled daily flow as predictors. As expected, projected air temperature increased the most in northernmost Finland. Predicted taxonomic richness also increased the most in northern Finland, congruent with the predicted northwards shift of many species' distributions. Compositional changes were predicted to be high even without changes in richness, suggesting that species replacement may be the main mechanism causing climate-induced changes in macroinvertebrate assemblages. Northern streams were predicted to lose much of the seasonality of their flow regimes, causing potentially marked changes in stream benthic assemblages. Sites with the highest loss of seasonality were predicted to support future assemblages that deviate most in compositional similarity from the present-day assemblages. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were also predicted to change more in headwaters than in larger streams, as headwaters were particularly sensitive to changes in flow patterns. Our results emphasize the importance of focusing protection and mitigation on headwater streams with high-flow seasonality because of their vulnerability to climate change. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Temporal and spatial temperature distribution in the glabrous skin of rats induced by short-pulse CO2 laser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Pen-Li; Hsu, Shu-Shen; Tsai, Meng-Li; Jaw, Fu-Shan; Wang, An-Bang; Yen, Chen-Tung

2012-11-01

Pain is a natural alarm that aids the body in avoiding potential danger and can also present as an important indicator in clinics. Infrared laser-evoked potentials can be used as an objective index to evaluate nociception. In animal studies, a short-pulse laser is crucial because it completes the stimulation before escape behavior. The objective of the present study was to obtain the temporal and spatial temperature distributions in the skin caused by the irradiation of a short-pulse laser. A fast speed infrared camera was used to measure the surface temperature caused by a CO2 laser of different durations (25 and 35 ms) and power. The measured results were subsequently implemented with a three-layer finite element model to predict the subsurface temperature. We found that stratum corneum was crucial in the modeling of fast temperature response, and escape behaviors correlated with predictions of temperature at subsurface. Results indicated that the onset latency and duration of activated nociceptors must be carefully considered when interpreting physiological responses evoked by infrared irradiation.

Predicting Long-term Temperature Increase for Time-Dependent SAR Levels with a Single Short-term Temperature Response

PubMed Central

Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M.

2015-01-01

Purpose Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). Methods After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and Impulse-Response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes’ bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. Results The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time, and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. Conclusion With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. (200/200 words) PMID:26096947

Predicting long-term temperature increase for time-dependent SAR levels with a single short-term temperature response.

PubMed

Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M

2016-05-01

Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and impulse-response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes' bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long-term climate change on a poleward range shift.

PubMed

Crickenberger, Sam; Wethey, David S

2018-05-10

Range shifts due to annual variation in temperature are more tractable than range shifts linked to decadal to century long temperature changes due to climate change, providing natural experiments to determine the mechanisms responsible for driving long-term distributional shifts. In this study we couple physiologically grounded mechanistic models with biogeographic surveys in 2 years with high levels of annual temperature variation to disentangle the drivers of a historical range shift driven by climate change. The distribution of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides has shifted 350 km poleward in the past half century along the east coast of the United States. Recruits were present throughout the historical range following the 2015 reproductive season, when temperatures were similar to those in the past century, and absent following the 2016 reproductive season when temperatures were warmer than they have been since 1870, the earliest date for temperature records. Our dispersal dependent mechanistic models of reproductive success were highly accurate and predicted patterns of reproduction success documented in field surveys throughout the historical range in 2015 and 2016. Our mechanistic models of reproductive success not only predicted recruitment dynamics near the range edge but also predicted interior range fragmentation in a number of years between 1870 and 2016. All recruits monitored within the historical range following the 2015 colonization died before 2016 suggesting juvenile survival was likely the primary driver of the historical range retraction. However, if 2016 is indicative of future temperatures mechanisms of range limitation will shift and reproductive failure will lead to further range retraction in the future. Mechanistic models are necessary for accurately predicting the effects of climate change on ranges of species. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Environmental temperature affects prevalence of blood parasites of birds on an elevation gradient: implications for disease in a warming climate.

PubMed

Zamora-Vilchis, Itzel; Williams, Stephen E; Johnson, Christopher N

2012-01-01

The rising global temperature is predicted to expand the distribution of vector-borne diseases both in latitude and altitude. Many host communities could be affected by increased prevalence of disease, heightening the risk of extinction for many already threatened species. To understand how host communities could be affected by changing parasite distributions, we need information on the distribution of parasites in relation to variables like temperature and rainfall that are predicted to be affected by climate change. We determined relations between prevalence of blood parasites, temperature, and seasonal rainfall in a bird community of the Australian Wet Tropics along an elevation gradient. We used PCR screening to investigate the prevalence and lineage diversity of four genera of blood parasites (Plasmodium, Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon and Trypanosoma) in 403 birds. The overall prevalence of the four genera of blood parasites was 32.3%, with Haemoproteus the predominant genus. A total of 48 unique lineages were detected. Independent of elevation, parasite prevalence was positively and strongly associated with annual temperature. Parasite prevalence was elevated during the dry season. Low temperatures of the higher elevations can help to reduce both the development of avian haematozoa and the abundance of parasite vectors, and hence parasite prevalence. In contrast, high temperatures of the lowland areas provide an excellent environment for the development and transmission of haematozoa. We showed that rising temperatures are likely to lead to increased prevalence of parasites in birds, and may force shifts of bird distribution to higher elevations. We found that upland tropical areas are currently a low-disease habitat and their conservation should be given high priority in management plans under climate change.

Environmental Temperature Affects Prevalence of Blood Parasites of Birds on an Elevation Gradient: Implications for Disease in a Warming Climate

PubMed Central

Zamora-Vilchis, Itzel; Williams, Stephen E.; Johnson, Christopher N.

2012-01-01

Background The rising global temperature is predicted to expand the distribution of vector-borne diseases both in latitude and altitude. Many host communities could be affected by increased prevalence of disease, heightening the risk of extinction for many already threatened species. To understand how host communities could be affected by changing parasite distributions, we need information on the distribution of parasites in relation to variables like temperature and rainfall that are predicted to be affected by climate change. Methodology/Principal Findings We determined relations between prevalence of blood parasites, temperature, and seasonal rainfall in a bird community of the Australian Wet Tropics along an elevation gradient. We used PCR screening to investigate the prevalence and lineage diversity of four genera of blood parasites (Plasmodium, Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon and Trypanosoma) in 403 birds. The overall prevalence of the four genera of blood parasites was 32.3%, with Haemoproteus the predominant genus. A total of 48 unique lineages were detected. Independent of elevation, parasite prevalence was positively and strongly associated with annual temperature. Parasite prevalence was elevated during the dry season. Conclusions/Significance Low temperatures of the higher elevations can help to reduce both the development of avian haematozoa and the abundance of parasite vectors, and hence parasite prevalence. In contrast, high temperatures of the lowland areas provide an excellent environment for the development and transmission of haematozoa. We showed that rising temperatures are likely to lead to increased prevalence of parasites in birds, and may force shifts of bird distribution to higher elevations. We found that upland tropical areas are currently a low-disease habitat and their conservation should be given high priority in management plans under climate change. PMID:22723966

Distribution analysis for F100(3) engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walter, W. A.; Shaw, M.

1980-01-01

The F100(3) compression system response to inlet circumferential distortion was investigated using an analytical compressor flow model. Compression system response to several types of distortion, including pressure, temperature, and combined pressure/temperature distortions, was investigated. The predicted response trends were used in planning future F100(3) distortion tests. Results show that compression system response to combined temperature and pressure distortions depends upon the relative orientation, as well as the individual amplitudes and circumferential extents of the distortions. Also the usefulness of the analytical predictions in planning engine distortion tests is indicated.

Numerical and neutron diffraction measurement of residual stress distribution in dissimilar weld

DOE PAGES

Eisazadeh, Hamid; Bunn, Jeffrey R.; Aidun, Daryush K.

2017-01-01

In this study, a model considering an asymmetric power heat distribution, temperature-dependent material properties, strain hardening and phase transformation was developed to predict temperature field and residual stress distribution in GTA dissimilar weld between austenitic stainless steel (304) and low carbon steel (1018). The effect of martensite formation on longitudinal and transverse residual stress distributions were investigated using both FE model and neutron diffraction measurement. The results indicate that martensitic phase has a significant influence on both residual stress components, i.e., transverse and longitudinal, and it not only can change the distribution shape of residual stress near the weld centermore » line but, also, can alter the peak value of the residual stresses. The calculated temperature and weld zone profile were in agreement with the experimental results. Favorable general agreement was also found between the calculated residual stress distribution and residual stress measurements by the neutron diffraction method.« less

Numerical and neutron diffraction measurement of residual stress distribution in dissimilar weld

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eisazadeh, Hamid; Bunn, Jeffrey R.; Aidun, Daryush K.

In this study, a model considering an asymmetric power heat distribution, temperature-dependent material properties, strain hardening and phase transformation was developed to predict temperature field and residual stress distribution in GTA dissimilar weld between austenitic stainless steel (304) and low carbon steel (1018). The effect of martensite formation on longitudinal and transverse residual stress distributions were investigated using both FE model and neutron diffraction measurement. The results indicate that martensitic phase has a significant influence on both residual stress components, i.e., transverse and longitudinal, and it not only can change the distribution shape of residual stress near the weld centermore » line but, also, can alter the peak value of the residual stresses. The calculated temperature and weld zone profile were in agreement with the experimental results. Favorable general agreement was also found between the calculated residual stress distribution and residual stress measurements by the neutron diffraction method.« less

Distributed snow modeling suitable for use with operational data for the American River watershed.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamir, E.; Georgakakos, K. P.

2004-12-01

The mountainous terrain of the American River watershed (~4300 km2) at the Western slope of the Northern Sierra Nevada is subject to significant variability in the atmospheric forcing that controls the snow accumulation and ablations processes (i.e., precipitation, surface temperature, and radiation). For a hydrologic model that attempts to predict both short- and long-term streamflow discharges, a plausible description of the seasonal and intermittent winter snow pack accumulation and ablation is crucial. At present the NWS-CNRFC operational snow model is implemented in a semi distributed manner (modeling unit of about 100-1000 km2) and therefore lump distinct spatial variability of snow processes. In this study we attempt to account for the precipitation, temperature, and radiation spatial variability by constructing a distributed snow accumulation and melting model suitable for use with commonly available sparse data. An adaptation of the NWS-Snow17 energy and mass balance that is used operationally at the NWS River Forecast Centers is implemented at 1 km2 grid cells with distributed input and model parameters. The input to the model (i.e., precipitation and surface temperature) is interpolated from observed point data. The surface temperature was interpolated over the basin based on adiabatic lapse rates using topographic information whereas the precipitation was interpolated based on maps of climatic mean annual rainfall distribution acquired from PRISM. The model parameters that control the melting rate due to radiation were interpolated based on aspect. The study was conducted for the entire American basin for the snow seasons of 1999-2000. Validation of the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) prediction is done by comparing to observation from 12 snow Sensors. The Snow Cover Area (SCA) prediction was evaluated by comparing to remotely sensed 500m daily snow cover derived from MODIS. The results that the distribution of snow over the area is well captured and the quantity compared to the snow gauges are well estimated in the high elevation.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands

PubMed Central

Upson, Rebecca; Williams, Jennifer J.; Wilkinson, Tim P.; Maclean, Ilya M. D.; McAdam, Jim H.; Moat, Justin F.

2016-01-01

The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020–2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements. PMID:27880846

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands.

PubMed

Upson, Rebecca; Williams, Jennifer J; Wilkinson, Tim P; Clubbe, Colin P; Maclean, Ilya M D; McAdam, Jim H; Moat, Justin F

2016-01-01

The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020-2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements.

Superheating of kerosene-surfactant-water interface formed in capillary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kitamura, Y.; Huang, Q.; Takahashi, T.

1993-03-01

To provide fundamental information about the microexplosion of emulsified fuels, the effect of surfactants on the superheating of a kerosene-water interface was experimentally investigated. Surfactants such as Span 80, NPE[sub 2], NPE[sub 5], and NPE[sub 7.5] were used. The three-layer sample was prepared in a capillary; the bottom layer was kerosene, the middle layer was water, and the upper layer was kerosene. The surfactants were dissolved in the upper kerosene layer. The 30-40 samples were used to determine the superheating temperature distribution. The superheating temperature decreases with increasing concentration of surfactant and approaches a constant distribution over a critical concentration.more » The superheating temperature also depends on the hydrophilic group of NPE[sub x]. To explain such an effect, the authors assumed that the surfactant was absorbed on the interface and accelerated the nucleation rate. The authors suggest a modified nucleation rate which includes the surface coverage by a surfactant. The model predicts that the presence of surfactants reduces the superheating temperature and makes the distribution broader. The prediction from this model is in good agreement with the experimental data.« less

Measurement of the temperature distribution inside the power cable using distributed temperature system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaros, Jakub; Liner, Andrej; Papes, Martin; Vasinek, Vladimir; Mach, Veleslav; Hruby, David; Kajnar, Tomas; Perecar, Frantisek

2015-01-01

Nowadays, the power cables are manufactured to fulfill the following condition - the highest allowable temperature of the cable during normal operation and the maximum allowable temperature at short circuit conditions cannot exceed the condition of the maximum allowable internal temperature. The distribution of the electric current through the conductor leads to the increase of the amplitude of electrons in the crystal lattice of the cables material. The consequence of this phenomenon is the increase of friction and the increase of collisions between particles inside the material, which causes the temperature increase of the carrying elements. The temperature increase is unwanted phenomena, because it is causing losses. In extreme cases, the long-term overload leads to the cable damaging or fire. This paper deals with the temperature distribution measurement inside the power cables using distributed temperature system. With cooperation with Kabex company, the tube containing optical fibers was installed into the center of power cables. These fibers, except telecommunications purposes, can be also used as sensors in measurements carrying out with distributed temperature system. These systems use the optical fiber as a sensor and allow the continual measurement of the temperature along the whole cable in real time with spatial resolution 1 m. DTS systems are successfully deployed in temperature measurement applications in industry areas yet. These areas include construction, drainage, hot water etc. Their advantages are low cost, resistance to electromagnetic radiation and the possibility of real time monitoring at the distance of 8 km. The location of the optical fiber in the center of the power cable allows the measurement of internal distribution of the temperature during overloading the cable. This measurement method can be also used for prediction of short-circuit and its exact location.

Using Species Distribution Model to Estimate the Wintering Population Size of the Endangered Scaly-Sided Merganser in China

PubMed Central

Zeng, Qing; Zhang, Yamian; Sun, Gongqi; Duo, Hairui; Wen, Li; Lei, Guangchun

2015-01-01

Scaly-sided Merganser is a globally endangered species restricted to eastern Asia. Estimating its population is difficult and considerable gap exists between populations at its breeding grounds and wintering sites. In this study, we built a species distribution model (SDM) using Maxent with presence-only data to predict the potential wintering habitat for Scaly-sided Merganser in China. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) method suggests high predictive power of the model (training and testing AUC were 0.97 and 0.96 respectively). The most significant environmental variables included annual mean temperature, mean temperature of coldest quarter, minimum temperature of coldest month and precipitation of driest quarter. Suitable conditions for Scaly-sided Merganser are predicted in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, especially in Jiangxi, Hunan and Hubei Provinces. The predicted suitable habitat embraces 6,984 km of river. Based on survey results from three consecutive winters (2010–2012) and previous studies, we estimated that the entire wintering population of Scaly-sided Merganser in China to be 3,561 ± 478 individuals, which is consistent with estimate in its breeding ground. PMID:25646969

Does greater thermal plasticity facilitate range expansion of an invasive terrestrial anuran into higher latitudes?

PubMed

Winwood-Smith, Hugh S; Alton, Lesley A; Franklin, Craig E; White, Craig R

2015-01-01

Temperature has pervasive effects on physiological processes and is critical in setting species distribution limits. Since invading Australia, cane toads have spread rapidly across low latitudes, but slowly into higher latitudes. Low temperature is the likely factor limiting high-latitude advancement. Several previous attempts have been made to predict future cane toad distributions in Australia, but understanding the potential contribution of phenotypic plasticity and adaptation to future range expansion remains challenging. Previous research demonstrates the considerable thermal metabolic plasticity of the cane toad, but suggests limited thermal plasticity of locomotor performance. Additionally, the oxygen-limited thermal tolerance hypothesis predicts that reduced aerobic scope sets thermal limits for ectotherm performance. Metabolic plasticity, locomotor performance and aerobic scope are therefore predicted targets of natural selection as cane toads invade colder regions. We measured these traits at temperatures of 10, 15, 22.5 and 30°C in low- and high-latitude toads acclimated to 15 and 30°C, to test the hypothesis that cane toads have adapted to cooler temperatures. High-latitude toads show increased metabolic plasticity and higher resting metabolic rates at lower temperatures. Burst locomotor performance was worse for high-latitude toads. Other traits showed no regional differences. We conclude that increased metabolic plasticity may facilitate invasion into higher latitudes by maintaining critical physiological functions at lower temperatures.

Development and Testing of a Coupled Ocean-atmosphere Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-28

wind, temperature, and moisture variables, while the oceanographic ET is derived from ocean current, temperature, and salinity variables. Estimates of...wind, temperature, and moisture variables while the oceanographic ET is derived from ocean current temperature, and salinity variables. Estimates of...uncertainty in the model. Rigorously accurate ensemble methods for describing the distribution of future states given past information include particle

Modelling transient temperature distribution for injecting hot water through a well to an aquifer thermal energy storage system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Shaw-Yang; Yeh, Hund-Der; Li, Kuang-Yi

2010-10-01

Heat storage systems are usually used to store waste heat and solar energy. In this study, a mathematical model is developed to predict both the steady-state and transient temperature distributions of an aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) system after hot water is injected through a well into a confined aquifer. The ATES has a confined aquifer bounded by aquicludes with different thermomechanical properties and geothermal gradients along the depth. Consider that the heat is transferred by conduction and forced convection within the aquifer and by conduction within the aquicludes. The dimensionless semi-analytical solutions of temperature distributions of the ATES system are developed using Laplace and Fourier transforms and their corresponding time-domain results are evaluated numerically by the modified Crump method. The steady-state solution is obtained from the transient solution through the final-value theorem. The effect of the heat transfer coefficient on aquiclude temperature distribution is appreciable only near the outer boundaries of the aquicludes. The present solutions are useful for estimating the temperature distribution of heat injection and the aquifer thermal capacity of ATES systems.

Global climate change and potential effects on Pacific salmonids in freshwater ecosystems of southeast Alaska

Treesearch

M. D. Bryant

2009-01-01

General circulation models predict increases in air temperatures from 1ºC to 5ºC as atmospheric CO2 continues to rise during the next 100 years. Thermal regimes in freshwater ecosystems will change as air temperatures increase regionally. As air temperatures increase, the distribution and intensity of precipitation will change...

Ranking site vulnerability to increasing temperatures in southern Appalachian brook trout streams in Virginia: An exposure-sensitivity approach

Treesearch

Bradly A. Trumbo; Keith H. Nislow; Jonathan Stallings; Mark Hudy; Eric P. Smith; Dong-Yun Kim; Bruce Wiggins; Charles A. Dolloff

2014-01-01

Models based on simple air temperature–water temperature relationships have been useful in highlighting potential threats to coldwater-dependent species such as Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis by predicting major losses of habitat and substantial reductions in geographic distribution. However, spatial variability in the relationship between changes...

Comparing techniques for estimating flame temperature of prescribed fires

Treesearch

Deborah K. Kennard; Kenneth W. Outcalt; David Jones; Joseph J. O' Brien

2005-01-01

A variety of techniques that estimate temperature and/or heat output during fires are available. We assessed the predictive ability of metal and tile pyrometers, calorimeters of different sizes, and fuel consumption to time-temperature metrics derived from thick and thin thermocouples at 140 points distributed over 9 management-scale burns in a longleaf pine forest in...

Friction Stir Welding in Wrought and Cast Aluminum Alloys: Heat Transfer Modeling and Thermal History Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Yi; Lados, Diana A.

2017-02-01

Friction stir welding (FSW) is a technique that can be used for materials joining and local microstructural refinement. Owing to the solid-state character of the process, FSW has significant advantages over traditional fusion welding, including reduced part distortion and overheating. In this study, a novel heat transfer model was developed to predict weld temperature distributions and quantify peak temperatures under various combinations of processing parameters for different wrought and cast Al alloys. Specifically, an analytical analysis was first developed to characterize and predict heat generation rate within the weld nugget, and then a two-dimensional (2D) numerical simulation was performed to evaluate the temperature distribution in the weld cross-section and top-view planes. A further three-dimensional (3D) simulation was developed based on the heat generation analysis. The model was validated by measuring actual temperatures near the weld nugget using thermocouples, and good agreement was obtained for all studied materials and conditions.

Swelling Kinetics of Waxy Maize Starch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desam, Gnana Prasuna Reddy

Starch pasting behavior greatly influences the texture of a variety of food products such as canned soup, sauces, baby foods, batter mixes etc. The annual consumption of starch in the U.S. is 3 million metric tons. It is important to characterize the relationship between the structure, composition and architecture of the starch granules with its pasting behavior in order to arrive at a rational methodology to design modified starch of desirable digestion rate and texture. In this research, polymer solution theory was applied to predict the evolution of average granule size of starch at different heating temperatures in terms of its molecular weight, second virial coefficient and extent of cross-link. Evolution of granule size distribution of waxy native maize starch when subjected to heating at constant temperatures of 65, 70, 75, 80, 85 and 90 C was characterized using static laser light scattering. As expected, granule swelling was more pronounced at higher temperatures and resulted in a shift of granule size distribution to larger sizes with a corresponding increase in the average size by 100 to 120% from 13 mum to 25-28 mum. Most of the swelling occurred within the first 10 min of heating. Pasting behavior of waxy maize at different temperatures was also characterized from the measurements of G' and G" for different heating times. G' was found to increase with temperature at holding time of 2 min followed by its decrease at larger holding times. This behavior is believed to be due to the predominant effect of swelling at small times. However, G" was insensitive to temperature and holding times. The structure of waxy maize starch was characterized by cryoscanning electron microscopy. Experimental data of average granule size vs time at different temperatures were compared with model predictions. Also the Experimental data of particle size distribution vs particle size at different times and temperatures were compared with model predictions.

Temperature dependence of electron magnetic resonance spectra of iron oxide nanoparticles mineralized in Listeria innocua protein cages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usselman, Robert J.; Russek, Stephen E.; Klem, Michael T.; Allen, Mark A.; Douglas, Trevor; Young, Mark; Idzerda, Yves U.; Singel, David J.

2012-10-01

Electron magnetic resonance (EMR) spectroscopy was used to determine the magnetic properties of maghemite (γ-Fe2O3) nanoparticles formed within size-constraining Listeria innocua (LDps)-(DNA-binding protein from starved cells) protein cages that have an inner diameter of 5 nm. Variable-temperature X-band EMR spectra exhibited broad asymmetric resonances with a superimposed narrow peak at a gyromagnetic factor of g ≈ 2. The resonance structure, which depends on both superparamagnetic fluctuations and inhomogeneous broadening, changes dramatically as a function of temperature, and the overall linewidth becomes narrower with increasing temperature. Here, we compare two different models to simulate temperature-dependent lineshape trends. The temperature dependence for both models is derived from a Langevin behavior of the linewidth resulting from "anisotropy melting." The first uses either a truncated log-normal distribution of particle sizes or a bi-modal distribution and then a Landau-Liftshitz lineshape to describe the nanoparticle resonances. The essential feature of this model is that small particles have narrow linewidths and account for the g ≈ 2 feature with a constant resonance field, whereas larger particles have broad linewidths and undergo a shift in resonance field. The second model assumes uniform particles with a diameter around 4 nm and a random distribution of uniaxial anisotropy axes. This model uses a more precise calculation of the linewidth due to superparamagnetic fluctuations and a random distribution of anisotropies. Sharp features in the spectrum near g ≈ 2 are qualitatively predicted at high temperatures. Both models can account for many features of the observed spectra, although each has deficiencies. The first model leads to a nonphysical increase in magnetic moment as the temperature is increased if a log normal distribution of particles sizes is used. Introducing a bi-modal distribution of particle sizes resolves the unphysical increase in moment with temperature. The second model predicts low-temperature spectra that differ significantly from the observed spectra. The anisotropy energy density K1, determined by fitting the temperature-dependent linewidths, was ˜50 kJ/m3, which is considerably larger than that of bulk maghemite. The work presented here indicates that the magnetic properties of these size-constrained nanoparticles and more generally metal oxide nanoparticles with diameters d < 5 nm are complex and that currently existing models are not sufficient for determining their magnetic resonance signatures.

Environmental Determinants of the Distribution of Chagas Disease Vector Triatoma dimidiata in Colombia.

PubMed

Parra-Henao, Gabriel; Quirós-Gómez, Oscar; Jaramillo-O, Nicolas; Cardona, Ángela Segura

2016-04-01

Triatoma dimidiata (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) is a secondary vector of Trypanosoma cruzi in Colombia and represents an important epidemiological risk mainly in the central and oriental regions of the country where it occupies sylvatic, peridomestic, and intradomestic ecotopes, and because of this complex distribution, its distribution and abundance could be conditioned by environmental factors. In this work, we explored the relationship between T. dimidiata distribution and environmental factors in the northwest, northeast, and central zones of Colombia and developed predictive models of infestation in the country. The associations between the presence ofT. dimidiata and environmental variables were studied using logistic regression models and ecological niche modeling for a sample of villages in Colombia. The analysis was based on the information collected in field about the presence ofT. dimidiata and the environmental data for each village extracted from remote sensing images. The presence of Triatoma dimidiata(Latreille, 1811) was found to be significantly associated with the maximum vegetation index, minimum land surface temperature (LST), and the digital elevation for the statistical model. Temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, and vegetation index were the variables that most influenced the ecological niche model ofT. dimidiata distribution. The logistic regression model showed a good fit and predicted suitable habitats in the Andean and Caribbean regions, which agrees with the known distribution of the species, but predicted suitable habitats in the Pacific and Orinoco regions proposing new areas of research. Improved models to predict suitable habitats forT. dimidiata hold promise for spatial targeting of integrated vector management. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Environmental Determinants of the Distribution of Chagas Disease Vector Triatoma dimidiata in Colombia

PubMed Central

Parra-Henao, Gabriel; Quirós-Gómez, Oscar; Jaramillo-O, Nicolas; Cardona, Ángela Segura

2016-01-01

Triatoma dimidiata (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) is a secondary vector of Trypanosoma cruzi in Colombia and represents an important epidemiological risk mainly in the central and oriental regions of the country where it occupies sylvatic, peridomestic, and intradomestic ecotopes, and because of this complex distribution, its distribution and abundance could be conditioned by environmental factors. In this work, we explored the relationship between T. dimidiata distribution and environmental factors in the northwest, northeast, and central zones of Colombia and developed predictive models of infestation in the country. The associations between the presence of T. dimidiata and environmental variables were studied using logistic regression models and ecological niche modeling for a sample of villages in Colombia. The analysis was based on the information collected in field about the presence of T. dimidiata and the environmental data for each village extracted from remote sensing images. The presence of Triatoma dimidiata (Latreille, 1811) was found to be significantly associated with the maximum vegetation index, minimum land surface temperature (LST), and the digital elevation for the statistical model. Temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, and vegetation index were the variables that most influenced the ecological niche model of T. dimidiata distribution. The logistic regression model showed a good fit and predicted suitable habitats in the Andean and Caribbean regions, which agrees with the known distribution of the species, but predicted suitable habitats in the Pacific and Orinoco regions proposing new areas of research. Improved models to predict suitable habitats for T. dimidiata hold promise for spatial targeting of integrated vector management. PMID:26856910

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among-population demographic responses to climatic variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amburgey, Staci M.; Miller, David A. W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Rittenhouse, Tracy A. G.; Benard, Michael F.; Richardson, Jonathan L.; Urban, Mark C.; Hughson, Ward; Brand, Adrianne B,; Davis, Christopher J.; Hardin, Carmen R.; Paton, Peter W. C.; Raithel, Christopher J.; Relyea, Rick A.; Scott, A. Floyd; Skelly, David K.; Skidds, Dennis E.; Smith, Charles K.; Werner, Earl E.

2018-01-01

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long-term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long-term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species-interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.

Terra and Aqua satellites track tiger mosquito invasion: modelling the potential distribution of Aedes albopictus in north-eastern Italy

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The continuing spread of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in Europe is of increasing public health concern due to the potential risk of new outbreaks of exotic vector-borne diseases that this species can transmit as competent vector. We predicted the most favorable areas for a short term invasion of Ae. albopictus in north-eastern Italy using reconstructed daily satellite data time series (MODIS Land Surface Temperature maps, LST). We reconstructed more than 11,000 daily MODIS LST maps for the period 2001-09 (i.e. performed spatial and temporal gap-filling) in an Open Source GIS framework. We aggregated these LST maps over time and identified the potential distribution areas of Ae. albopictus by adapting published temperature threshold values using three variables as predictors (0°C for mean January temperatures, 11°C for annual mean temperatures and 1350 growing degree days filtered for areas with autumnal mean temperatures > 11°C). The resulting maps were integrated into the final potential distribution map and this was compared with the known current distribution of Ae. albopictus in north-eastern Italy. Results LST maps show the microclimatic characteristics peculiar to complex terrains, which would not be visible in maps commonly derived from interpolated meteorological station data. The patterns of the three indicator variables partially differ from each other, while winter temperature is the determining limiting factor for the distribution of Ae. albopictus. All three variables show a similar spatial pattern with some local differences, in particular in the northern part of the study area (upper Adige valley). Conclusions Reconstructed daily land surface temperature data from satellites can be used to predict areas of short term invasion of the tiger mosquito with sufficient accuracy (200 m pixel resolution size). Furthermore, they may be applied to other species of arthropod of medical interest for which temperature is a relevant limiting factor. The results indicate that, during the next few years, the tiger mosquito will probably spread toward northern latitudes and higher altitudes in north-eastern Italy, which will considerably expand the range of the current distribution of this species. PMID:21812983

Current Analogues of Future Climate Indicate the Likely Response of a Sensitive Montane Tropical Avifauna to a Warming World

PubMed Central

Anderson, Alexander S.; Storlie, Collin J.; Shoo, Luke P.; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.

2013-01-01

Among birds, tropical montane species are likely to be among the most vulnerable to climate change, yet little is known about how climate drives their distributions, nor how to predict their likely responses to temperature increases. Correlative models of species’ environmental niches have been widely used to predict changes in distribution, but direct tests of the relationship between key variables, such as temperature, and species’ actual distributions are few. In the absence of historical data with which to compare observations and detect shifts, space-for-time substitutions, where warmer locations are used as analogues of future conditions, offer an opportunity to test for species’ responses to climate. We collected density data for rainforest birds across elevational gradients in northern and southern subregions within the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). Using environmental optima calculated from elevational density profiles, we detected a significant elevational difference between the two regions in ten of 26 species. More species showed a positive (19 spp.) than negative (7 spp.) displacement, with a median difference of ∼80.6 m across the species analysed that is concordant with that expected due to latitudinal temperature differences (∼75.5 m). Models of temperature gradients derived from broad-scale climate surfaces showed comparable performance to those based on in-situ measurements, suggesting the former is sufficient for modeling impacts. These findings not only confirm temperature as an important factor driving elevational distributions of these species, but also suggest species will shift upslope to track their preferred environmental conditions. Our approach uses optima calculated from elevational density profiles, offering a data-efficient alternative to distribution limits for gauging climate constraints, and is sensitive enough to detect distribution shifts in this avifauna in response to temperature changes of as little as 0.4 degrees. We foresee important applications in the urgent task of detecting and monitoring impacts of climate change on montane tropical biodiversity. PMID:23936005

Current analogues of future climate indicate the likely response of a sensitive montane tropical avifauna to a warming world.

PubMed

Anderson, Alexander S; Storlie, Collin J; Shoo, Luke P; Pearson, Richard G; Williams, Stephen E

2013-01-01

Among birds, tropical montane species are likely to be among the most vulnerable to climate change, yet little is known about how climate drives their distributions, nor how to predict their likely responses to temperature increases. Correlative models of species' environmental niches have been widely used to predict changes in distribution, but direct tests of the relationship between key variables, such as temperature, and species' actual distributions are few. In the absence of historical data with which to compare observations and detect shifts, space-for-time substitutions, where warmer locations are used as analogues of future conditions, offer an opportunity to test for species' responses to climate. We collected density data for rainforest birds across elevational gradients in northern and southern subregions within the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). Using environmental optima calculated from elevational density profiles, we detected a significant elevational difference between the two regions in ten of 26 species. More species showed a positive (19 spp.) than negative (7 spp.) displacement, with a median difference of ∼80.6 m across the species analysed that is concordant with that expected due to latitudinal temperature differences (∼75.5 m). Models of temperature gradients derived from broad-scale climate surfaces showed comparable performance to those based on in-situ measurements, suggesting the former is sufficient for modeling impacts. These findings not only confirm temperature as an important factor driving elevational distributions of these species, but also suggest species will shift upslope to track their preferred environmental conditions. Our approach uses optima calculated from elevational density profiles, offering a data-efficient alternative to distribution limits for gauging climate constraints, and is sensitive enough to detect distribution shifts in this avifauna in response to temperature changes of as little as 0.4 degrees. We foresee important applications in the urgent task of detecting and monitoring impacts of climate change on montane tropical biodiversity.

Transport lattice models of heat transport in skin with spatially heterogeneous, temperature-dependent perfusion.

PubMed

Gowrishankar, T R; Stewart, Donald A; Martin, Gregory T; Weaver, James C

2004-11-17

Investigation of bioheat transfer problems requires the evaluation of temporal and spatial distributions of temperature. This class of problems has been traditionally addressed using the Pennes bioheat equation. Transport of heat by conduction, and by temperature-dependent, spatially heterogeneous blood perfusion is modeled here using a transport lattice approach. We represent heat transport processes by using a lattice that represents the Pennes bioheat equation in perfused tissues, and diffusion in nonperfused regions. The three layer skin model has a nonperfused viable epidermis, and deeper regions of dermis and subcutaneous tissue with perfusion that is constant or temperature-dependent. Two cases are considered: (1) surface contact heating and (2) spatially distributed heating. The model is relevant to the prediction of the transient and steady state temperature rise for different methods of power deposition within the skin. Accumulated thermal damage is estimated by using an Arrhenius type rate equation at locations where viable tissue temperature exceeds 42 degrees C. Prediction of spatial temperature distributions is also illustrated with a two-dimensional model of skin created from a histological image. The transport lattice approach was validated by comparison with an analytical solution for a slab with homogeneous thermal properties and spatially distributed uniform sink held at constant temperatures at the ends. For typical transcutaneous blood gas sensing conditions the estimated damage is small, even with prolonged skin contact to a 45 degrees C surface. Spatial heterogeneity in skin thermal properties leads to a non-uniform temperature distribution during a 10 GHz electromagnetic field exposure. A realistic two-dimensional model of the skin shows that tissue heterogeneity does not lead to a significant local temperature increase when heated by a hot wire tip. The heat transport system model of the skin was solved by exploiting the mathematical analogy between local thermal models and local electrical (charge transport) models, thereby allowing robust, circuit simulation software to obtain solutions to Kirchhoff's laws for the system model. Transport lattices allow systematic introduction of realistic geometry and spatially heterogeneous heat transport mechanisms. Local representations for both simple, passive functions and more complex local models can be easily and intuitively included into the system model of a tissue.

Reconstruction method for inversion problems in an acoustic tomography based temperature distribution measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Sha; Liu, Shi; Tong, Guowei

2017-11-01

In industrial areas, temperature distribution information provides a powerful data support for improving system efficiency, reducing pollutant emission, ensuring safety operation, etc. As a noninvasive measurement technology, acoustic tomography (AT) has been widely used to measure temperature distribution where the efficiency of the reconstruction algorithm is crucial for the reliability of the measurement results. Different from traditional reconstruction techniques, in this paper a two-phase reconstruction method is proposed to ameliorate the reconstruction accuracy (RA). In the first phase, the measurement domain is discretized by a coarse square grid to reduce the number of unknown variables to mitigate the ill-posed nature of the AT inverse problem. By taking into consideration the inaccuracy of the measured time-of-flight data, a new cost function is constructed to improve the robustness of the estimation, and a grey wolf optimizer is used to solve the proposed cost function to obtain the temperature distribution on the coarse grid. In the second phase, the Adaboost.RT based BP neural network algorithm is developed for predicting the temperature distribution on the refined grid in accordance with the temperature distribution data estimated in the first phase. Numerical simulations and experiment measurement results validate the superiority of the proposed reconstruction algorithm in improving the robustness and RA.

Image-based modeling and characterization of RF ablation lesions in cardiac arrhythmia therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linte, Cristian A.; Camp, Jon J.; Rettmann, Maryam E.; Holmes, David R.; Robb, Richard A.

2013-03-01

In spite of significant efforts to enhance guidance for catheter navigation, limited research has been conducted to consider the changes that occur in the tissue during ablation as means to provide useful feedback on the progression of therapy delivery. We propose a technique to visualize lesion progression and monitor the effects of the RF energy delivery using a surrogate thermal ablation model. The model incorporates both physical and physiological tissue parameters, and uses heat transfer principles to estimate temperature distribution in the tissue and geometry of the generated lesion in near real time. The ablation model has been calibrated and evaluated using ex vivo beef muscle tissue in a clinically relevant ablation protocol. To validate the model, the predicted temperature distribution was assessed against that measured directly using fiberoptic temperature probes inserted in the tissue. Moreover, the model-predicted lesions were compared to the lesions observed in the post-ablation digital images. Results showed an agreement within 5°C between the model-predicted and experimentally measured tissue temperatures, as well as comparable predicted and observed lesion characteristics and geometry. These results suggest that the proposed technique is capable of providing reasonably accurate and sufficiently fast representations of the created RF ablation lesions, to generate lesion maps in near real time. These maps can be used to guide the placement of successive lesions to ensure continuous and enduring suppression of the arrhythmic pathway.

Predicting the Effect of Changing Precipitation Extremes and Land Cover Change on Urban Water Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SUN, N.; Yearsley, J. R.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2013-12-01

Recent research shows that precipitation extremes in many of the largest U.S. urban areas have increased over the last 60 years. These changes have important implications for stormwater runoff and water quality, which in urban areas are dominated by the most extreme precipitation events. We assess the potential implications of changes in extreme precipitation and changing land cover in urban and urbanizing watersheds at the regional scale using a combination of hydrology and water quality models. Specifically, we describe the integration of a spatially distributed hydrological model - the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the urban water quality model in EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model RBM10, and dynamical and statistical downscaling methods applied to global climate predictions. Key output water quality parameters include total suspended solids (TSS), toal nitrogen, total phosphorous, fecal coliform bacteria and stream temperature. We have evaluated the performance of the modeling system in the highly urbanized Mercer Creek watershed in the rapidly growing Bellevue urban area in WA, USA. The results suggest that the model is able to (1) produce reasonable streamflow predictions at fine temporal and spatial scales; (2) provide spatially distributed water temperature predictions that mostly agree with observations throughout a complex stream network, and characterize impacts of climate, landscape, near-stream vegetation change on stream temperature at local and regional scales; and (3) capture plausibly the response of water quality constituents to varying magnitude of precipitation events in urban environments. Next we will extend the scope of the study from the Mercer Creek watershed to include the entire Puget Sound Basin, WA, USA.

Predicting presence and absence of trout (Salmo trutta) in Iran

PubMed Central

Mostafavi, Hossein; Pletterbauer, Florian; Coad, Brian W.; Mahini, Abdolrassoul Salman; Schinegger, Rafaela; Unfer, Günther; Trautwein, Clemens; Schmutz, Stefan

2014-01-01

Species distribution modelling, as a central issue in freshwater ecology, is an important tool for conservation and management of aquatic ecosystems. The brown trout (Salmo trutta) is a sensitive species which reacts to habitat changes induced by human impacts. Therefore, the identification of suitable habitats is essential. This study explores the potential distribution of brown trout by a species distribution modelling approach for Iran. Furthermore, modelling results are compared to the distribution described in the literature. Areas outside the currently known distribution which may offer potential habitats for brown trout are identified. The species distribution modelling was based on five different modelling techniques: Generalised Linear Model, Generalised Additive Model, Generalised Boosting Model, Classification Tree Analysis and Random Forests, which are finally summarised in an ensemble forecasting approach. We considered four environmental descriptors at the local scale (slope, bankfull width, wetted width, and elevation) and three climatic parameters (mean air temperature, range of air temperature and annual precipitation) which were extracted on three different spatial extents (1/5/10 km). The performance of all models was excellent (≥0.8) according to the TSS (True Skill Statistic) criterion. Slope, mean and range of air temperature were the most important variables in predicting brown trout occurrence. Presented results deepen the knowledge about distribution patterns of brown trout in Iran. Moreover, this study gives a basic background for the future development of assessment methods for riverine ecosystems in Iran. PMID:24707064

Large eddy simulation of turbulent premixed combustion using tabulated detailed chemistry and presumed probability density function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongda; Han, Chao; Ye, Taohong; Ren, Zhuyin

2016-03-01

A method of chemistry tabulation combined with presumed probability density function (PDF) is applied to simulate piloted premixed jet burner flames with high Karlovitz number using large eddy simulation. Thermo-chemistry states are tabulated by the combination of auto-ignition and extended auto-ignition model. To evaluate the predictive capability of the proposed tabulation method to represent the thermo-chemistry states under the condition of different fresh gases temperature, a-priori study is conducted by performing idealised transient one-dimensional premixed flame simulations. Presumed PDF is used to involve the interaction of turbulence and flame with beta PDF to model the reaction progress variable distribution. Two presumed PDF models, Dirichlet distribution and independent beta distribution, respectively, are applied for representing the interaction between two mixture fractions that are associated with three inlet streams. Comparisons of statistical results show that two presumed PDF models for the two mixture fractions are both capable of predicting temperature and major species profiles, however, they are shown to have a significant effect on the predictions for intermediate species. An analysis of the thermo-chemical state-space representation of the sub-grid scale (SGS) combustion model is performed by comparing correlations between the carbon monoxide mass fraction and temperature. The SGS combustion model based on the proposed chemistry tabulation can reasonably capture the peak value and change trend of intermediate species. Aspects regarding model extensions to adequately predict the peak location of intermediate species are discussed.

Spatial distribution estimation of malaria in northern China and its scenarios in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050.

PubMed

Song, Yongze; Ge, Yong; Wang, Jinfeng; Ren, Zhoupeng; Liao, Yilan; Peng, Junhuan

2016-07-07

Malaria is one of the most severe parasitic diseases in the world. Spatial distribution estimation of malaria and its future scenarios are important issues for malaria control and elimination. Furthermore, sophisticated nonlinear relationships for prediction between malaria incidence and potential variables have not been well constructed in previous research. This study aims to estimate these nonlinear relationships and predict future malaria scenarios in northern China. Nonlinear relationships between malaria incidence and predictor variables were constructed using a genetic programming (GP) method, to predict the spatial distributions of malaria under climate change scenarios. For this, the examples of monthly average malaria incidence were used in each county of northern China from 2004 to 2010. Among the five variables at county level, precipitation rate and temperature are used for projections, while elevation, water density index, and gross domestic product are held at their present-day values. Average malaria incidence was 0.107 ‰ per annum in northern China, with incidence characteristics in significant spatial clustering. A GP-based model fit the relationships with average relative error (ARE) = 8.127 % for training data (R(2) = 0.825) and 17.102 % for test data (R(2) = 0.532). The fitness of GP results are significantly improved compared with those by generalized additive models (GAM) and linear regressions. With the future precipitation rate and temperature conditions in Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) family B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, spatial distributions and changes in malaria incidences in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 were predicted and mapped. The GP method increases the precision of predicting the spatial distribution of malaria incidence. With the assumption of varied precipitation rate and temperature, and other variables controlled, the relationships between incidence and the varied variables appear sophisticated nonlinearity and spatially differentiation. Using the future fluctuated precipitation and the increased temperature, median malaria incidence in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 would significantly increase that it might increase 19 to 29 % in 2020, but currently China is in the malaria elimination phase, indicating that the effective strategies and actions had been taken. While the mean incidences will not increase even reduce due to the incidence reduction in high-risk regions but the simultaneous expansion of the high-risk areas.

A new prospect in magnetic nanoparticle-based cancer therapy: Taking credit from mathematical tissue-mimicking phantom brain models.

PubMed

Saeedi, Mostafa; Vahidi, Omid; Goodarzi, Vahabodin; Saeb, Mohammad Reza; Izadi, Leila; Mozafari, Masoud

2017-11-01

Distribution patterns/performance of magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) was visualized by computer simulation and experimental validation on agarose gel tissue-mimicking phantom (AGTMP) models. The geometry of a complex three-dimensional mathematical phantom model of a cancer tumor was examined by tomography imaging. The capability of mathematical model to predict distribution patterns/performance in AGTMP model was captured. The temperature profile vs. hyperthermia duration was obtained by solving bio-heat equations for four different MNPs distribution patterns and correlated with cell death rate. The outcomes indicated that bio-heat model was able to predict temperature profile throughout the tissue model with a reasonable precision, to be applied for complex tissue geometries. The simulation results on the cancer tumor model shed light on the effectiveness of the studied parameters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Drilling in bone: modeling heat generation and temperature distribution.

PubMed

Davidson, Sean R; James, David F

2003-06-01

Thermo-mechanical equations were developed from machining theory to predict heat generation due to drilling and were coupled with a heat transfer FEM simulation to predict the temperature rise and thermal injury in bone during a drilling operation. The rotational speed, feed rate, drill geometry and bone material properties were varied in a parametric analysis to determine the importance of each on temperature rise and therefore on thermal damage. It was found that drill speed, feed rate and drill diameter had the most significant thermal impact while changes in drill helix angle, point angle and bone thermal properties had relatively little effect.

[Prediction of potential geographic distribution of Lyme disease in Qinghai province with Maximum Entropy model].

PubMed

Zhang, Lin; Hou, Xuexia; Liu, Huixin; Liu, Wei; Wan, Kanglin; Hao, Qin

2016-01-01

To predict the potential geographic distribution of Lyme disease in Qinghai by using Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt). The sero-diagnosis data of Lyme disease in 6 counties (Huzhu, Zeku, Tongde, Datong, Qilian and Xunhua) and the environmental and anthropogenic data including altitude, human footprint, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature in Qinghai province since 1990 were collected. By using the data of Huzhu Zeku and Tongde, the prediction of potential distribution of Lyme disease in Qinghai was conducted with MaxEnt. The prediction results were compared with the human sero-prevalence of Lyme disease in Datong, Qilian and Xunhua counties in Qinghai. Three hot spots of Lyme disease were predicted in Qinghai, which were all in the east forest areas. Furthermore, the NDVI showed the most important role in the model prediction, followed by human footprint. Datong, Qilian and Xunhua counties were all in eastern Qinghai. Xunhua was in hot spot areaⅡ, Datong was close to the north of hot spot area Ⅲ, while Qilian with lowest sero-prevalence of Lyme disease was not in the hot spot areas. The data were well modeled in MaxEnt (Area Under Curve=0.980). The actual distribution of Lyme disease in Qinghai was in consistent with the results of the model prediction. MaxEnt could be used in predicting the potential distribution patterns of Lyme disease. The distribution of vegetation and the range and intensity of human activity might be related with Lyme disease distribution.

3D-modelling of the thermal circumstances of a lake under artificial aeration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Xiaoqing; Pan, Huachen; Köngäs, Petrina; Horppila, Jukka

2017-12-01

A 3D-model was developed to study the effects of hypolimnetic aeration on the temperature profile of a thermally stratified Lake Vesijärvi (southern Finland). Aeration was conducted by pumping epilimnetic water through the thermocline to the hypolimnion without breaking the thermal stratification. The model used time transient equation based on Navier-Stokes equation. The model was fitted to the vertical temperature distribution and environmental parameters (wind, air temperature, and solar radiation) before the onset of aeration, and the model was used to predict the vertical temperature distribution 3 and 15 days after the onset of aeration (1 August and 22 August). The difference between the modelled and observed temperature was on average 0.6 °C. The average percentage model error was 4.0% on 1 August and 3.7% on 22 August. In the epilimnion, model accuracy depended on the difference between the observed temperature and boundary conditions. In the hypolimnion, the model residual decreased with increasing depth. On 1 August, the model predicted a homogenous temperature profile in the hypolimnion, while the observed temperature decreased moderately from the thermocline to the bottom. This was because the effect of sediment was not included in the model. On 22 August, the modelled and observed temperatures near the bottom were identical demonstrating that the heat transfer by the aerator masked the effect of sediment and that exclusion of sediment heat from the model does not cause considerable error unless very short-term effects of aeration are studied. In all, the model successfully described the effects of the aerator on the lake's temperature profile. The results confirmed the validity of the applied computational fluid dynamic in artificial aeration; based on the simulated results, the effect of aeration can be predicted.

Three-dimensional thermal finite element modeling of lithium-ion battery in thermal abuse application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Guifang; Long, Bo; Cheng, Bo; Zhou, Shiqiong; Xu, Peng; Cao, Binggang

In order to better understand the thermal abuse behavior of high capacities and large power lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicle application, a three-dimensional thermal model has been developed for analyzing the temperature distribution under abuse conditions. The model takes into account the effects of heat generation, internal conduction and convection, and external heat dissipation to predict the temperature distribution in a battery. Three-dimensional model also considers the geometrical features to simulate oven test, which are significant in larger cells for electric vehicle application. The model predictions are compared to oven test results for VLP 50/62/100S-Fe (3.2 V/55 Ah) LiFePO 4/graphite cells and shown to be in great agreement.

Predicting cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients for the SAMPL5 challenge using MOSCED and the SMD solvation model.

PubMed

Diaz-Rodriguez, Sebastian; Bozada, Samantha M; Phifer, Jeremy R; Paluch, Andrew S

2016-11-01

We present blind predictions using the solubility parameter based method MOSCED submitted for the SAMPL5 challenge on calculating cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients at 298 K. Reference data to parameterize MOSCED was generated with knowledge only of chemical structure by performing solvation free energy calculations using electronic structure calculations in the SMD continuum solvent. To maintain simplicity and use only a single method, we approximate the distribution coefficient with the partition coefficient of the neutral species. Over the final SAMPL5 set of 53 compounds, we achieved an average unsigned error of [Formula: see text] log units (ranking 15 out of 62 entries), the correlation coefficient (R) was [Formula: see text] (ranking 35), and [Formula: see text] of the predictions had the correct sign (ranking 30). While used here to predict cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients at 298 K, MOSCED is broadly applicable, allowing one to predict temperature dependent infinite dilution activity coefficients in any solvent for which parameters exist, and provides a means by which an excess Gibbs free energy model may be parameterized to predict composition dependent phase-equilibrium.

Thermal stress analysis of a planar SOFC stack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Chih-Kuang; Chen, Tsung-Ting; Chyou, Yau-Pin; Chiang, Lieh-Kwang

The aim of this study is, by using finite element analysis (FEA), to characterize the thermal stress distribution in a planar solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) stack during various stages. The temperature profiles generated by an integrated thermo-electrochemical model were applied to calculate the thermal stress distributions in a multiple-cell SOFC stack by using a three-dimensional (3D) FEA model. The constructed 3D FEA model consists of the complete components used in a practical SOFC stack, including positive electrode-electrolyte-negative electrode (PEN) assembly, interconnect, nickel mesh, and gas-tight glass-ceramic seals. Incorporation of the glass-ceramic sealant, which was never considered in previous studies, into the 3D FEA model would produce more realistic results in thermal stress analysis and enhance the reliability of predicting potential failure locations in an SOFC stack. The effects of stack support condition, viscous behavior of the glass-ceramic sealant, temperature gradient, and thermal expansion mismatch between components were characterized. Modeling results indicated that a change in the support condition at the bottom frame of the SOFC stack would not cause significant changes in thermal stress distribution. Thermal stress distribution did not differ significantly in each unit cell of the multiple-cell stack due to a comparable in-plane temperature profile. By considering the viscous characteristics of the glass-ceramic sealant at temperatures above the glass-transition temperature, relaxation of thermal stresses in the PEN was predicted. The thermal expansion behavior of the metallic interconnect/frame had a greater influence on the thermal stress distribution in the PEN than did that of the glass-ceramic sealant due to the domination of interconnect/frame in the volume of a planar SOFC assembly.

Anisotropic Azimuthal Power and Temperature distribution on FuelRod. Impact on Hydride Distribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Motta, Arthur; Ivanov, Kostadin; Arramova, Maria

2015-04-29

The degradation of the zirconium cladding may limit nuclear fuel performance. In the high temperature environment of a reactor, the zirconium in the cladding corrodes, releasing hydrogen in the process. Some of this hydrogen is absorbed by the cladding in a highly inhomogeneous manner. The distribution of the absorbed hydrogen is extremely sensitive to temperature and stress concentration gradients. The absorbed hydrogen tends to concentrate near lower temperatures. This hydrogen absorption and hydride formation can cause cladding failure. This project set out to improve the hydrogen distribution prediction capabilities of the BISON fuel performance code. The project was split intomore » two primary sections, first was the use of a high fidelity multi-physics coupling to accurately predict temperature gradients as a function of r, θ , and z, and the second was to use experimental data to create an analytical hydrogen precipitation model. The Penn State version of thermal hydraulics code COBRA-TF (CTF) was successfully coupled to the DeCART neutronics code. This coupled system was verified by testing and validated by comparison to FRAPCON data. The hydrogen diffusion and precipitation experiments successfully calculated the heat of transport and precipitation rate constant values to be used within the hydrogen model in BISON. These values can only be determined experimentally. These values were successfully implemented in precipitation, diffusion and dissolution kernels that were implemented in the BISON code. The coupled output was fed into BISON models and the hydrogen and hydride distributions behaved as expected. Simulations were conducted in the radial, axial and azimuthal directions to showcase the full capabilities of the hydrogen model.« less

Roughness induced transition and heat transfer augmentation in hypersonic environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wassel, A. T.; Shih, W. C. L.; Courtney, J. F.

Boundary layer transition and surface heating distributions on graphite, fine weave carbon-carbon, and metallic nosetip materials were derived from surface temperature responses measured in nitrogen environments during both free-flight and track-guided testing in hypersonic environments. Innovative test procedures were developed, and heat transfer results were validated against established theory through experiments using a super-smooth tungsten model. Quantitative definitions of mean transition front locations were established by deriving heat flux distributions from measured temperatures, and comparisons made with existing nosetip transition correlations. Qualitative transition locations were inferred directly from temperature distributions to investigate preferred orientations on fine weave nosetips. Levels of roughness augmented heat transfer were generally shown to be below values predicted by state-of-the-art methods.

Calculation of change in brain temperatures due to exposure to a mobile phone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Leeuwen, G. M. J.; Lagendijk, J. J. W.; Van Leersum, B. J. A. M.; Zwamborn, A. P. M.; Hornsleth, S. N.; Kotte, A. N. T. J.

1999-10-01

In this study we evaluated for a realistic head model the 3D temperature rise induced by a mobile phone. This was done numerically with the consecutive use of an FDTD model to predict the absorbed electromagnetic power distribution, and a thermal model describing bioheat transfer both by conduction and by blood flow. We calculated a maximum rise in brain temperature of 0.11 °C for an antenna with an average emitted power of 0.25 W, the maximum value in common mobile phones, and indefinite exposure. Maximum temperature rise is at the skin. The power distributions were characterized by a maximum averaged SAR over an arbitrarily shaped 10 g volume of approximately 1.6 W kg-1. Although these power distributions are not in compliance with all proposed safety standards, temperature rises are far too small to have lasting effects. We verified our simulations by measuring the skin temperature rise experimentally. Our simulation method can be instrumental in further development of safety standards.

Numerical simulation of high intensity focused ultrasound temperature distribution for transcranial brain therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qian; Wang, Yizhe; Zhou, Wenzheng; Zhang, Ji; Jian, Xiqi

2017-03-01

To provide a reference for the HIFU clinical therapeutic planning, the temperature distribution and lesion volume are analyzed by the numerical simulation. The adopted numerical simulation is based on a transcranial ultrasound therapy model, including an 8 annular-element curved phased array transducer. The acoustic pressure and temperature elevation are calculated by using the approximation of Westervelt Formula and the Pennes Heat Transfer Equation. In addition, the Time Reversal theory and eliminating hot spot technique are combined to optimize the temperature distribution. With different input powers and exposure times, the lesion volume is evaluated based on temperature threshold theory. The lesion region could be restored at the expected location by the time reversal theory. Although the lesion volume reduces after eliminating the peak temperature in the skull and more input power and exposure time is required, the injury of normal tissue around skull could be reduced during the HIFU therapy. The prediction of thermal deposition in the skull and the lesion region could provide a reference for clinical therapeutic dose.

Ecoregional analysis of nearshore sea-surface temperature in the North Pacific

EPA Science Inventory

Aim Sea surface temperature (SST) has been a parameter widely-identified to be useful to the investigation of marine species distribution, migration, and invasion, especially as SSTs are predicted to be affected by climate change. Here we use a remotely-sensed dataset to focus on...

Predicting the variation in Echinogammarus marinus at its southernmost limits under global warming scenarios: can the sex-ratio make a difference?

PubMed

Guerra, Alexandra; Leite, Nuno; Marques, João Carlos; Ford, Alex T; Martins, Irene

2014-01-01

Understanding the environmental parameters that constrain the distribution of a species at its latitudinal extremes is critical for predicting how ecosystems react to climate change. Our first aim was to predict the variation in the amphipod populations of Echinogammarus marinus from the southernmost limit of its distribution under global warming scenarios. Our second aim was to test whether sex-ratio fluctuations - a mechanism frequently displayed by amphipods - respond to the variations in populations under altered climate conditions. To achieve these aims, scenarios were run with a validated model of E. marinus populations. Simulations were divided into: phase I - simulation of the effect of climate change on amphipod populations, and phase II - simulation of the effect of climate change on populations with male and female proportions. In both phases, temperature (T), salinity (S) and temperature and salinity (T-S) were tested. Results showed that E. marinus populations are highly sensitive to increases in temperature (>2 °C), which has adverse effects on amphipod recruitment and growth. Results from the climate change scenarios coupled with the sex-ratio fluctuations depended largely on the degree of female bias within population. Temperature increase of 2 °C had less impact on female-biased populations, particularly when conjugated with increases in salinity. Male-biased populations were highly sensitive to any variation in temperature and/or salinity; these populations exhibited a long-term decline in density. Simulations in which temperature increased more than 4 °C led to a continuous decline in the E. marinus population. According to this work, E. marinus populations at their southernmost limit are vulnerable to global warming. We anticipate that in Europe, temperature increases of 2 °C will incite a withdrawal of the population of 5°N from the amphipod species located at southernmost geographical borders. This effect is discussed in relation to the distribution of E. marinus along the Atlantic coast. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of the potential global distribution for Biomphalaria straminea, an intermediate host for Schistosoma mansoni

PubMed Central

Yang, Ya; Cheng, Wanting; Wu, Xiaoying; Huang, Shaoyu; Deng, Zhuohui; Zeng, Xin; Yang, Yu; Wu, Zhongdao; Chen, Yue; Zhou, Yibiao; Jiang, Qingwu

2018-01-01

Background Schistosomiasis is a snail-borne parasitic disease and is endemic in many tropical and subtropical countries. Biomphalaria straminea, an intermediate host for Schistosoma mansoni, is native to the southeastern part of South America and has established in other regions of South America, Central America and southern China during the last decades. S. mansoni is endemic in Africa, the Middle East, South America and the Caribbean. Knowledge of the potential global distribution of this snail is essential for risk assessment, monitoring, disease prevention and control. Methods and findings A comprehensive database of cross-continental occurrence for B. straminea was compiled to construct ecological models. We used several approaches to investigate the distribution of B. straminea, including direct comparison of climatic conditions, principal component analysis and niche overlap analyses to detect niche shifts. We also investigated the impacts of bioclimatic and human factors, and then used the bioclimatic and footprint layers to predict the potential distribution of B. straminea at global scale. We detected niche shifts accompanying the invasions of B. straminea in the Americas and China. The introduced populations had enlarged its habitats to subtropical regions where annual mean temperature is relatively low. Annual mean temperature, isothermality and temperature seasonality were identified as most important climatic features for the occurrence of B. straminea. Additionally, human factors improved the model prediction (P<0.001). Our model showed that under current climate conditions the snail should mostly be confined to the tropic and subtropic regions, including South America, Central America, Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. Conclusions Our results confirmed that niche shifts took place in the invasions of B. straminea, in which bioclimatic and human factors played an important role. Our model predicted the global distribution of B. straminea based on habitat suitability, which would help for prioritizing monitoring and management efforts for B. straminea control in the context of ongoing climate change and human disturbances. PMID:29813073

Localized magnetism in liquid Al80Mn20 alloys: A first-principles investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakse, N.; LeBacq, O.; Pasturel, A.

2006-04-01

We present first-principles investigations of the formation of magnetic moments in liquid Al80Mn20 alloys as a function of temperature. We predict the existence of large magnetic moments on Mn atoms which are close to that of the single-impurity limit. The wide distribution of moments can be understood in terms of fluctuations in the local environment. Our calculations also predict that thermal expansion effects within the single-impurity model mainly explain the striking increase of magnetism with temperature.

Kinetic model for the collisionless sheath of a collisional plasma

DOE PAGES

Tang, Xian-Zhu; Guo, Zehua

2016-08-04

Collisional plasmas typically have mean-free-path still much greater than the Debye length, so the sheath is mostly collisionless. Once the plasma density, temperature, and flow are specified at the sheath entrance, the profile variation of electron and ion density, temperature, flow speed, and conductive heat fluxes inside the sheath is set by collisionless dynamics, and can be predicted by an analytical kinetic model distribution. Finally, these predictions are contrasted in this paper with direct kinetic simulations, showing good agreement.

Predicting species richness and distribution ranges of centipedes at the northern edge of Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgopoulou, Elisavet; Djursvoll, Per; Simaiakis, Stylianos M.

2016-07-01

In recent decades, interest in understanding species distributions and exploring processes that shape species diversity has increased, leading to the development of advanced methods for the exploitation of occurrence data for analytical and ecological purposes. Here, with the use of georeferenced centipede data, we explore the importance and contribution of bioclimatic variables and land cover, and predict distribution ranges and potential hotspots in Norway. We used a maximum entropy analysis (Maxent) to model species' distributions, aiming at exploring centres of distribution, latitudinal spans and northern range boundaries of centipedes in Norway. The performance of all Maxent models was better than random with average test area under the curve (AUC) values above 0.893 and True Skill Statistic (TSS) values above 0.593. Our results showed a highly significant latitudinal gradient of increased species richness in southern grid-cells. Mean temperatures of warmest and coldest quarters explained much of the potential distribution of species. Predictive modelling analyses revealed that south-eastern Norway and the Atlantic coast in the west (inclusive of the major fjord system of Sognefjord), are local biodiversity hotspots with regard to high predictive species co-occurrence. We conclude that our predicted northward shifts of centipedes' distributions in Norway are likely a result of post-glacial recolonization patterns, species' ecological requirements and dispersal abilities.

Evaluation of distributed hydrologic impacts of temperature-index and energy-based snow models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Proper characterizations of snow melt and accumulation processes in the snow-dominated mountain environment are needed to understand and predict spatiotemporal distribution of water cycle components. Two commonly used strategies in modeling of snow accumulation and melt are the full energy based and...

Heat transfer analysis of skin during thermal therapy using thermal wave equation.

PubMed

Kashcooli, Meisam; Salimpour, Mohammad Reza; Shirani, Ebrahim

2017-02-01

Specifying exact geometry of vessel network and its effect on temperature distribution in living tissues is one of the most complicated problems of the bioheat field. In this paper, the effects of blood vessels on temperature distribution in a skin tissue subjected to various thermal therapy conditions are investigated. Present model consists of counter-current multilevel vessel network embedded in a three-dimensional triple-layered skin structure. Branching angles of vessels are calculated using the physiological principle of minimum work. Length and diameter ratios are specified using length doubling rule and Cube law, respectively. By solving continuity, momentum and energy equations for blood flow and Pennes and modified Pennes bioheat equations for the tissue, temperature distributions in the tissue are measured. Effects of considering modified Pennes bioheat equation are investigated, comprehensively. It is also observed that blood has an impressive role in temperature distribution of the tissue, especially at high temperatures. The effects of different parameters such as boundary conditions, relaxation time, thermal properties of skin, metabolism and pulse heat flux on temperature distribution are investigated. Tremendous effect of boundary condition type at the lower boundary is noted. It seems that neither insulation nor constant temperature at this boundary can completely describe the real physical phenomena. It is expected that real temperature at the lower levels is somewhat between two predicted values. The effect of temperature on the thermal properties of skin tissue is considered. It is shown that considering temperature dependent values for thermal conductivity is important in the temperature distribution estimation of skin tissue; however, the effect of temperature dependent values for specific heat capacity is negligible. It is seen that considering modified Pennes equation in processes with high heat flux during low times is significant. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projected climate-induced habitat loss for salmonids in the John Day River network, Oregon, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruesch, Aaron S.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Olden, Julian D.; Peterson, Erin E.; Volk, Carol J.; Lawrence, David J.

2012-01-01

Climate change will likely have profound effects on cold-water species of freshwater fishes. As temperatures rise, cold-water fish distributions may shift and contract in response. Predicting the effects of projected stream warming in stream networks is complicated by the generally poor correlation between water temperature and air temperature. Spatial dependencies in stream networks are complex because the geography of stream processes is governed by dimensions of flow direction and network structure. Therefore, forecasting climate-driven range shifts of stream biota has lagged behind similar terrestrial modeling efforts. We predicted climate-induced changes in summer thermal habitat for 3 cold-water fish species—juvenile Chinook salmon, rainbow trout, and bull trout (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, O. mykiss, and Salvelinus confluentus, respectively)—in the John Day River basin, northwestern United States. We used a spatially explicit statistical model designed to predict water temperature in stream networks on the basis of flow and spatial connectivity. The spatial distribution of stream temperature extremes during summers from 1993 through 2009 was largely governed by solar radiation and interannual extremes of air temperature. For a moderate climate change scenario, estimated declines by 2100 in the volume of habitat for Chinook salmon, rainbow trout, and bull trout were 69–95%, 51–87%, and 86–100%, respectively. Although some restoration strategies may be able to offset these projected effects, such forecasts point to how and where restoration and management efforts might focus.

A numerical study on dual-phase-lag model of bio-heat transfer during hyperthermia treatment.

PubMed

Kumar, P; Kumar, Dinesh; Rai, K N

2015-01-01

The success of hyperthermia in the treatment of cancer depends on the precise prediction and control of temperature. It was absolutely a necessity for hyperthermia treatment planning to understand the temperature distribution within living biological tissues. In this paper, dual-phase-lag model of bio-heat transfer has been studied using Gaussian distribution source term under most generalized boundary condition during hyperthermia treatment. An approximate analytical solution of the present problem has been done by Finite element wavelet Galerkin method which uses Legendre wavelet as a basis function. Multi-resolution analysis of Legendre wavelet in the present case localizes small scale variations of solution and fast switching of functional bases. The whole analysis is presented in dimensionless form. The dual-phase-lag model of bio-heat transfer has compared with Pennes and Thermal wave model of bio-heat transfer and it has been found that large differences in the temperature at the hyperthermia position and time to achieve the hyperthermia temperature exist, when we increase the value of τT. Particular cases when surface subjected to boundary condition of 1st, 2nd and 3rd kind are discussed in detail. The use of dual-phase-lag model of bio-heat transfer and finite element wavelet Galerkin method as a solution method helps in precise prediction of temperature. Gaussian distribution source term helps in control of temperature during hyperthermia treatment. So, it makes this study more useful for clinical applications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determining solid-fluid interface temperature distribution during phase change of cryogenic propellants using transient thermal modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellur, K.; Médici, E. F.; Hermanson, J. C.; Choi, C. K.; Allen, J. S.

2018-04-01

Control of boil-off of cryogenic propellants is a continuing technical challenge for long duration space missions. Predicting phase change rates of cryogenic liquids requires an accurate estimation of solid-fluid interface temperature distributions in regions where a contact line or a thin liquid film exists. This paper described a methodology to predict inner wall temperature gradients with and without evaporation using discrete temperature measurements on the outer wall of a container. Phase change experiments with liquid hydrogen and methane in cylindrical test cells of various materials and sizes were conducted at the Neutron Imaging Facility at the National Institute of Standards and Technology. Two types of tests were conducted. The first type of testing involved thermal cycling of an evacuated cell (dry) and the second involved controlled phase change with cryogenic liquids (wet). During both types of tests, temperatures were measured using Si-diode sensors mounted on the exterior surface of the test cells. Heat is transferred to the test cell by conduction through a helium exchange gas and through the cryostat sample holder. Thermal conduction through the sample holder is shown to be the dominant mode with the rate of heat transfer limited by six independent contact resistances. An iterative methodology is employed to determine contact resistances between the various components of the cryostat stick insert, test cell and lid using the dry test data. After the contact resistances are established, inner wall temperature distributions during wet tests are calculated.

Thickness distribution of a cooling pyroclastic flow deposit on Augustine Volcano, Alaska: Optimization using InSAR, FEMs, and an adaptive mesh algorithm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterlark, Timothy; Lu, Zhong; Rykhus, Russell P.

2006-01-01

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) imagery documents the consistent subsidence, during the interval 1992–1999, of a pyroclastic flow deposit (PFD) emplaced during the 1986 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska. We construct finite element models (FEMs) that simulate thermoelastic contraction of the PFD to account for the observed subsidence. Three-dimensional problem domains of the FEMs include a thermoelastic PFD embedded in an elastic substrate. The thickness of the PFD is initially determined from the difference between post- and pre-eruption digital elevation models (DEMs). The initial excess temperature of the PFD at the time of deposition, 640 °C, is estimated from FEM predictions and an InSAR image via standard least-squares inverse methods. Although the FEM predicts the major features of the observed transient deformation, systematic prediction errors (RMSE = 2.2 cm) are most likely associated with errors in the a priori PFD thickness distribution estimated from the DEM differences. We combine an InSAR image, FEMs, and an adaptive mesh algorithm to iteratively optimize the geometry of the PFD with respect to a minimized misfit between the predicted thermoelastic deformation and observed deformation. Prediction errors from an FEM, which includes an optimized PFD geometry and the initial excess PFD temperature estimated from the least-squares analysis, are sub-millimeter (RMSE = 0.3 mm). The average thickness (9.3 m), maximum thickness (126 m), and volume (2.1 × 107m3) of the PFD, estimated using the adaptive mesh algorithm, are about twice as large as the respective estimations for the a priori PFD geometry. Sensitivity analyses suggest unrealistic PFD thickness distributions are required for initial excess PFD temperatures outside of the range 500–800 °C.

Stress studies in EFG

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

Stress distributions were calculated for a creep law to predict a rate of plastic deformation. The expected reduction in stresses is obtained. Improved schemes for calculating growth system temperature distributions were evaluated. Temperature field modeling examined the possibility of using horizontal temperature gradients to influence stress distribution in ribbon. The defect structure of 10 cm wide ribbon grown in the cartridge system was examined. A new feature is identified from an examination of cross sectional micrographs. It consists of high density dislocation bands extending through the ribbon thickness. A four point bending apparatus was constructed for high temperature study of the creep response of silicon, to be used to generate defects for comparison with as grown defects in ribbon. The feasibility of laser interferometric techniques for sheet residual stress distribution measurement is examined. The mathematical formalism for calculating residual stress from changes in surface topology caused by an applied stress in a rectangular specimen was developed, and the system for laser interferometric measurement to obtain surface topology data was tested on CZ silicon.

The energetic and carbon economic origins of leaf thermoregulation.

PubMed

Michaletz, Sean T; Weiser, Michael D; McDowell, Nate G; Zhou, Jizhong; Kaspari, Michael; Helliker, Brent R; Enquist, Brian J

2016-08-22

Leaf thermoregulation has been documented in a handful of studies, but the generality and origins of this pattern are unclear. We suggest that leaf thermoregulation is widespread in both space and time, and originates from the optimization of leaf traits to maximize leaf carbon gain across and within variable environments. Here we use global data for leaf temperatures, traits and photosynthesis to evaluate predictions from a novel theory of thermoregulation that synthesizes energy budget and carbon economics theories. Our results reveal that variation in leaf temperatures and physiological performance are tightly linked to leaf traits and carbon economics. The theory, parameterized with global averaged leaf traits and microclimate, predicts a moderate level of leaf thermoregulation across a broad air temperature gradient. These predictions are supported by independent data for diverse taxa spanning a global air temperature range of ∼60 °C. Moreover, our theory predicts that net carbon assimilation can be maximized by means of a trade-off between leaf thermal stability and photosynthetic stability. This prediction is supported by globally distributed data for leaf thermal and photosynthetic traits. Our results demonstrate that the temperatures of plant tissues, and not just air, are vital to developing more accurate Earth system models.

Experimental investigation of interfacial energy transport in an evaporating sessile droplet for evaporative cooling applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, Md. Almostasim; MacDonald, Brendan D.

2017-01-01

In this paper we experimentally examine evaporation flux distributions and modes of interfacial energy transport for continuously fed evaporating spherical sessile water droplets in a regime that is relevant for applications, particularly for evaporative cooling systems. The contribution of the thermal conduction through the vapor phase was found to be insignificant compared to the thermal conduction through the liquid phase for the conditions we investigated. The local evaporation flux distributions associated with thermal conduction were found to vary along the surface of the droplet. Thermal conduction provided a majority of the energy required for evaporation but did not account for all of the energy transport, contributing 64 ±3 % , 77 ±3 % , and 77 ±4 % of the energy required for the three cases we examined. Based on the temperature profiles measured along the interface we found that thermocapillary flow was predicted to occur in our experiments, and two convection cells were consistent with the temperature distributions for higher substrate temperatures while a single convection cell was consistent with the temperature distributions for a lower substrate temperature.

Summer stream water temperature models for Great Lakes streams: New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murphy, Marilyn K.; McKenna, James E.; Butryn, Ryan S.; McDonald, Richard P.

2010-01-01

Temperature is one of the most important environmental influences on aquatic organisms. It is a primary driver of physiological rates and many abiotic processes. However, despite extensive research and measurements, synoptic estimates of water temperature are not available for most regions, limiting our ability to make systemwide and large-scale assessments of aquatic resources or estimates of aquatic species abundance and biodiversity. We used subwatershed averaging of point temperature measurements and associated multiscale landscape habitat conditions from over 3,300 lotic sites throughout New York State to develop and train artificial neural network models. Separate models predicting water temperature (in cold, cool, and warm temperature classes) within small catchment–stream order groups were developed for four modeling units, which together encompassed the entire state. Water temperature predictions were then made for each stream segment in the state. All models explained more than 90% of data variation. Elevation, riparian forest cover, landscape slope, and growing degree-days were among the most important model predictors of water temperature classes. Geological influences varied among regions. Predicted temperature distributions within stream networks displayed patterns of generally increasing temperature downstream but were patchy due to the averaging of water temperatures within stream size-classes of small drainages. Models predicted coldwater streams to be most numerous and warmwater streams to be generally associated with the largest rivers and relatively flat agricultural areas and urban areas. Model predictions provide a complete, georeferenced map of summer daytime mean stream temperature potential throughout New York State that can be used for planning and assessment at spatial scales from the stream segment class to the entire state.

The forecasting of menstruation based on a state-space modeling of basal body temperature time series.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Kawamori, Ai; Osada, Yutaka; Kitazawa, Masumi; Ishiguro, Makio

2017-09-20

Women's basal body temperature (BBT) shows a periodic pattern that associates with menstrual cycle. Although this fact suggests a possibility that daily BBT time series can be useful for estimating the underlying phase state as well as for predicting the length of current menstrual cycle, little attention has been paid to model BBT time series. In this study, we propose a state-space model that involves the menstrual phase as a latent state variable to explain the daily fluctuation of BBT and the menstruation cycle length. Conditional distributions of the phase are obtained by using sequential Bayesian filtering techniques. A predictive distribution of the next menstruation day can be derived based on this conditional distribution and the model, leading to a novel statistical framework that provides a sequentially updated prediction for upcoming menstruation day. We applied this framework to a real data set of women's BBT and menstruation days and compared prediction accuracy of the proposed method with that of previous methods, showing that the proposed method generally provides a better prediction. Because BBT can be obtained with relatively small cost and effort, the proposed method can be useful for women's health management. Potential extensions of this framework as the basis of modeling and predicting events that are associated with the menstrual cycles are discussed. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global climate change and potential effects on pacific salmonids in freshwater ecosystems of southeast Alaska

Treesearch

M.D. Bryant

2009-01-01

General circulation models predict increases in air temperatures from 1◦C to 5◦C as atmospheric CO2 continues to rise during the next 100 years. Thermal regimes in freshwater ecosystems will change as air temperatures increase regionally. As air temperatures increase, the distribution and intensity of precipitation will change which will in turn...

Diode-Laser Absorption Sensor for Line-of-Sight Gas Temperature Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, Scott T.; Wang, Jian; Jeffries, Jay B.; Hanson, Ronald K.

2001-08-01

Line-of-sight diode-laser absorption techniques have been extended to enable temperature measurements in nonuniform-property flows. The sensing strategy for such flows exploits the broad wavelength-scanning abilities ( >1.7 nm ~ 30 cm-1 ) of a vertical cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) to interrogate multiple absorption transitions along a single line of sight. To demonstrate the strategy, a VCSEL-based sensor for oxygen gas temperature distributions was developed. A VCSEL beam was directed through paths containing atmospheric-pressure air with known (and relatively simple) temperature distributions in the 200 -700 K range. The VCSEL was scanned over ten transitions in the R branch of the oxygen A band near 760 nm and optionally over six transitions in the P branch. Temperature distribution information can be inferred from these scans because the line strength of each probed transition has a unique temperature dependence; the measurement accuracy and resolution depend on the details of this temperature dependence and on the total number of lines scanned. The performance of the sensing strategy can be optimized and predicted theoretically. Because the sensor exhibits a fast time response ( ~30 ms) and can be adapted to probe a variety of species over a range of temperatures and pressures, it shows promise for industrial application.

Thermal sensitivity of cold climate lizards and the importance of distributional ranges.

PubMed

Bonino, Marcelo F; Moreno Azócar, Débora L; Schulte, James A; Abdala, Cristian S; Cruz, Félix B

2015-08-01

One of the fundamental goals in macroecology is to understand the relationship among species' geographic ranges, ecophysiology, and climate; however, the mechanisms underlying the distributional geographic patterns observed remain unknown for most organisms. In the case of ectotherms this is particularly important because the knowledge of these interactions may provide a robust framework for predicting the potential consequences of climate change in these organisms. Here we studied the relationship of thermal sensitivity and thermal tolerance in Patagonian lizards and their geographic ranges, proposing that species with wider distributions have broader plasticity and thermal tolerance. We predicted that lizard thermal physiology is related to the thermal characteristics of the environment. We also explored the presence of trade-offs of some thermal traits and evaluated the potential effects of a predicted scenario of climate change for these species. We examined sixteen species of Liolaemini lizards from Patagonia representing species with different geographic range sizes. We obtained thermal tolerance data and performance curves for each species in laboratory trials. We found evidence supporting the idea that higher physiological plasticity allows species to achieve broader distribution ranges compared to species with restricted distributions. We also found a trade-off between broad levels of plasticity and higher optimum temperatures of performance. Finally, results from contrasting performance curves against the highest environmental temperatures that lizards may face in a future scenario (year 2080) suggest that the activity of species occurring at high latitudes may be unaffected by predicted climatic changes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Northward shifts of the distributions of Spanish reptiles in association with climate change.

PubMed

Moreno-Rueda, Gregorio; Pleguezuelos, Juan M; Pizarro, Manuel; Montori, Albert

2012-04-01

It is predicted that climate change will drive extinctions of some reptiles and that the number of these extinctions will depend on whether reptiles are able to change their distribution. Whether the latitudinal distribution of reptiles may change in response to increases in temperature is unknown. We used data on reptile distributions collected during the 20th century to analyze whether changes in the distributions of reptiles in Spain are associated with increases in temperature. We controlled for biases in sampling effort and found a mean, statistically significant, northward shift of the northern extent of reptile distributions of about 15.2 km from 1940-1975 to 1991-2005. The southern extent of the distributions did not change significantly. Thus, our results suggest that the latitudinal distributions of reptiles may be changing in response to climate change. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Listening In on the Past: What Can Otolith δ18O Values Really Tell Us about the Environmental History of Fishes?

PubMed Central

Darnaude, Audrey M.; Sturrock, Anna; Trueman, Clive N.; Mouillot, David; EIMF; Campana, Steven E.; Hunter, Ewan

2014-01-01

Oxygen isotope ratios from fish otoliths are used to discriminate marine stocks and reconstruct past climate, assuming that variations in otolith δ18O values closely reflect differences in temperature history of fish when accounting for salinity induced variability in water δ18O. To investigate this, we exploited the environmental and migratory data gathered from a decade using archival tags to study the behaviour of adult plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) in the North Sea. Based on the tag-derived monthly distributions of the fish and corresponding temperature and salinity estimates modelled across three consecutive years, we first predicted annual otolith δ18O values for three geographically discrete offshore sub-stocks, using three alternative plausible scenarios for otolith growth. Comparison of predicted vs. measured annual δ18O values demonstrated >96% correct prediction of sub-stock membership, irrespective of the otolith growth scenario. Pronounced inter-stock differences in δ18O values, notably in summer, provide a robust marker for reconstructing broad-scale plaice distribution in the North Sea. However, although largely congruent, measured and predicted annual δ18O values of did not fully match. Small, but consistent, offsets were also observed between individual high-resolution otolith δ18O values measured during tag recording time and corresponding δ18O predictions using concomitant tag-recorded temperatures and location-specific salinity estimates. The nature of the shifts differed among sub-stocks, suggesting specific vital effects linked to variation in physiological response to temperature. Therefore, although otolith δ18O in free-ranging fish largely reflects environmental temperature and salinity, we counsel prudence when interpreting otolith δ18O data for stock discrimination or temperature reconstruction until the mechanisms underpinning otolith δ18O signature acquisition, and associated variation, are clarified. PMID:25279667

Finite element thermal analysis of multispectral coatings for the ABL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, Rashmi S.; Bettis, Jerry R.; Stewart, Alan F.; Bonsall, Lynn; Copland, James; Hughes, William; Echeverry, Juan C.

1999-04-01

The thermal response of a coated optical surface is an important consideration in the design of any high average power system. Finite element temperature distribution were calculated for both coating witness samples and calorimetry wafers and were compared to actual measured data under tightly controlled conditions. Coatings for ABL were deposited on various substrates including fused silica, ULE, Zerodur, and silicon. The witness samples were irradiate data high power levels at 1.315micrometers to evaluate laser damage thresholds and study absorption levels. Excellent agreement was obtained between temperature predictions and measured thermal response curves. When measured absorption values were not available, the code was used to predict coating absorption based on the measured temperature rise on the back surface. Using the finite element model, the damaging temperature rise can be predicted for a coating with known absorption based on run time, flux, and substrate material.

An ecophysiological background for biogeographic patterns of two island lizards?

PubMed

Carretero, Miguel A; Lopes, Evandro P; Vasconcelos, Raquel

2016-12-01

Distributions of sedentary ectotherms are dependent on temperature and humidity due to their low homeostatic and dispersal abilities. Lizards are strongly conditioned by temperature, but hydric environment may be also important, at least in arid environments. Biotic interactions may also play a role in range patterns, but they are of minor importance in islands where native species monopolize well-delimited niche spaces. On the arid island of São Vicente (Cabo Verde), two endemic lizards display different spatial patterns. While the gecko Tarentola substituta is widely distributed across the island, the skink Chioninia stangeri is restricted to the NE, which is cooler, more humid, and vegetated. We hypothesized that this is due to differences in the fundamental niche, specifically in ecophysiology. We predict that C. stangeri should select for lower temperatures and lose more water by evaporation than T. substituta. We submitted adults of each species to standard experiments to assess preferred body temperatures (T p ) and evaporative water loss (EWL) rates, and examined the variation between species and through time using repeated-measures AN(C)OVAs. Results only partially supported our expectations. Contrary to the prediction, skinks attained higher Tp than geckos but in the long term showed a trend for higher EWL as predicted. Thus, while ecophysiology certainly contributes to functional interpretation of species distributions, it needs to be combined with other evidence such as habitat use and evolutionary history. These findings will be useful to perform mechanistic models to better understand the impact of climate change and habitat disturbance on these endemic species.

An ecophysiological background for biogeographic patterns of two island lizards?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carretero, Miguel A.; Lopes, Evandro P.; Vasconcelos, Raquel

2016-12-01

Distributions of sedentary ectotherms are dependent on temperature and humidity due to their low homeostatic and dispersal abilities. Lizards are strongly conditioned by temperature, but hydric environment may be also important, at least in arid environments. Biotic interactions may also play a role in range patterns, but they are of minor importance in islands where native species monopolize well-delimited niche spaces. On the arid island of São Vicente (Cabo Verde), two endemic lizards display different spatial patterns. While the gecko Tarentola substituta is widely distributed across the island, the skink Chioninia stangeri is restricted to the NE, which is cooler, more humid, and vegetated. We hypothesized that this is due to differences in the fundamental niche, specifically in ecophysiology. We predict that C. stangeri should select for lower temperatures and lose more water by evaporation than T. substituta. We submitted adults of each species to standard experiments to assess preferred body temperatures (Tp) and evaporative water loss (EWL) rates, and examined the variation between species and through time using repeated-measures AN(C)OVAs. Results only partially supported our expectations. Contrary to the prediction, skinks attained higher Tp than geckos but in the long term showed a trend for higher EWL as predicted. Thus, while ecophysiology certainly contributes to functional interpretation of species distributions, it needs to be combined with other evidence such as habitat use and evolutionary history. These findings will be useful to perform mechanistic models to better understand the impact of climate change and habitat disturbance on these endemic species.

Beyond the Mean: Biological Impacts of Cryptic Temperature Change.

PubMed

Sheldon, Kimberly S; Dillon, Michael E

2016-07-01

Studies have typically used shifts in mean temperatures to make predictions about the biotic impacts of climate change. Though shifts in mean temperatures correlate with changes in phenology and distributions, other hidden, or cryptic, changes in temperature, such as temperature variation and extreme temperatures, could pose greater risks to species and ecological communities. Yet, these cryptic temperature changes have received relatively little attention because mean temperatures are readily available and the organism-appropriate temperature response is often elusive. An alternative to using mean temperatures is to view organisms as physiological filters of hourly temperature data. We explored three classes of physiological filters: (1) nonlinear thermal responses using performance curves of insect fitness, (2) cumulative thermal effects using degree-day models for corn emergence, and (3) threshold temperature effects using critical thermal maxima and minima for diverse ectotherms. For all three physiological filters, we determined the change in biological impacts of hourly temperature data from a standard reference period (1961-90) to a current period (2005-10). We then examined how well mean temperature changes during the same time period predicted the biotic impacts we determined from hourly temperature data. In all cases, mean temperature alone provided poor predictions of the impacts of climate change. These results suggest that incorporating high frequency temperature data can provide better predictions for how species will respond to temperature change. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The potential effect of global warming on the geographic and seasonal distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in Southwest Asia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cross, E.R.; Hyams, K.C.

1996-07-01

The distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in Southwest Asia is thought to be highly dependent on temperature and relative humidity. A discriminant analysis model based on weather data and reported vector surveys was developed to predict the seasonal and geographic distribution of P. papatasi in this region. To simulate global warming, temperature values for 115 weather stations were increased by 1 {degrees}C, 3{degrees}C, and 5{degrees}C, and the outcome variable coded as unknown in the model. Probability of occurrence values were then predicted for each location with a weather station. Stations with positive probability of occurrence values for May, June, July, andmore » August were considered locations where two or more life cycles of P. papatasi could occur and which could support endemic transmission of leishmaniasis and sandfly fever. Among 115 weather stations, 71 (62%) would be considered endemic with current temperature conditions; 14 (12%) additional station could become endemic with an increase of 1 {degrees}C; 17 (15%) more than a 3{degrees}C increase; and 12 (10%) more (all but one station) with a t{degrees}C increase. In addition to increased geographic distribution, seasonality of disease transmission could be extended throughout 12 months of the year in 7 (6%) locations with at least a 3{degrees}C rise in temperature and in 29 (25%) locations with a 5{degrees}C rise. 15 refs., 4 figs.« less

Combining abundance and performance data reveals how temperature regulates coastal occurrences and activity of a roaming apex predator.

PubMed

Payne, Nicholas L; Meyer, Carl G; Smith, James A; Houghton, Jonathan D R; Barnett, Adam; Holmes, Bonnie J; Nakamura, Itsumi; Papastamatiou, Yannis P; Royer, Mark A; Coffey, Daniel M; Anderson, James M; Hutchinson, Melanie R; Sato, Katsufumi; Halsey, Lewis G

2018-05-01

The redistribution of species has emerged as one of the most pervasive impacts of anthropogenic climate warming, and presents many societal challenges. Understanding how temperature regulates species distributions is particularly important for mobile marine fauna such as sharks given their seemingly rapid responses to warming, and the socio-political implications of human encounters with some dangerous species. The predictability of species distributions can potentially be improved by accounting for temperature's influence on performance, an elusive relationship for most large animals. We combined multi-decadal catch data and bio-logging to show that coastal abundance and swimming performance of tiger sharks Galeocerdo cuvier are both highest at ~22°C, suggesting thermal constraints on performance may regulate this species' distribution. Tiger sharks are responsible for a large proportion of shark bites on humans, and a focus of controversial control measures in several countries. The combination of distribution and performance data moves towards a mechanistic understanding of tiger shark's thermal niche, and delivers a simple yet powerful indicator for predicting the location and timing of their occurrences throughout coastlines. For example, tiger sharks are mostly caught at Australia's popular New South Wales beaches (i.e. near Sydney) in the warmest months, but our data suggest similar abundances will occur in winter and summer if annual sea surface temperatures increase by a further 1-2°C. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Relative mass distributions of neutron-rich thermally fissile nuclei within a statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Bharat; Kannan, M. T. Senthil; Balasubramaniam, M.; Agrawal, B. K.; Patra, S. K.

2017-09-01

We study the binary mass distribution for the recently predicted thermally fissile neutron-rich uranium and thorium nuclei using a statistical model. The level density parameters needed for the study are evaluated from the excitation energies of the temperature-dependent relativistic mean field formalism. The excitation energy and the level density parameter for a given temperature are employed in the convolution integral method to obtain the probability of the particular fragmentation. As representative cases, we present the results for the binary yields of 250U and 254Th. The relative yields are presented for three different temperatures: T =1 , 2, and 3 MeV.

Nanoscale dynamics of Joule heating and bubble nucleation in a solid-state nanopore.

PubMed

Levine, Edlyn V; Burns, Michael M; Golovchenko, Jene A

2016-01-01

We present a mathematical model for Joule heating of an electrolytic solution in a nanopore. The model couples the electrical and thermal dynamics responsible for rapid and extreme superheating of the electrolyte within the nanopore. The model is implemented numerically with a finite element calculation, yielding a time and spatially resolved temperature distribution in the nanopore region. Temperatures near the thermodynamic limit of superheat are predicted to be attained just before the explosive nucleation of a vapor bubble is observed experimentally. Knowledge of this temperature distribution enables the evaluation of related phenomena including bubble nucleation kinetics, relaxation oscillation, and bubble dynamics.

Velocity statistics for interacting edge dislocations in one dimension from Dyson's Coulomb gas model.

PubMed

Jafarpour, Farshid; Angheluta, Luiza; Goldenfeld, Nigel

2013-10-01

The dynamics of edge dislocations with parallel Burgers vectors, moving in the same slip plane, is mapped onto Dyson's model of a two-dimensional Coulomb gas confined in one dimension. We show that the tail distribution of the velocity of dislocations is power law in form, as a consequence of the pair interaction of nearest neighbors in one dimension. In two dimensions, we show the presence of a pairing phase transition in a system of interacting dislocations with parallel Burgers vectors. The scaling exponent of the velocity distribution at effective temperatures well below this pairing transition temperature can be derived from the nearest-neighbor interaction, while near the transition temperature, the distribution deviates from the form predicted by the nearest-neighbor interaction, suggesting the presence of collective effects.

Effect of Channel Geometry and Properties of a Vapor-Gas Mixture on Volume Condensation in a Flow through a Nozzle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidorov, A. A.; Yastrebov, A. K.

2018-01-01

A method of direct numerical solution of the kinetic equation for the droplet size distribution function was used for the numerical investigation of volume condensation in a supersonic vapor-gas flow. Distributions of temperature for the gas phase and droplets, degree of supersaturation, pressure, fraction of droplets by weight, the number of droplets per unit mass, and of the nucleation rate along the channel were determined. The influence of nozzle geometry, mixture composition, and temperature dependence of the mixture properties on the investigated process was evaluated. It has been found that the nozzle divergence angle determines the vapor-gas mixture expansion rate: an increase in the divergence angle enhances the temperature decrease rate and the supersaturation degree raise rate. With an increase or decrease in the partial pressure of incondensable gas, the droplet temperature approaches the gas phase temperature or the saturation temperature at the partial gas pressure, respectively. A considerable effect of the temperature dependence of the liquid surface tension and properties on gas phase parameters and the integral characteristics of condensation aerosol was revealed. However, the difference in results obtained with or without considering the temperature dependence of evaporation heat is negligible. The predictions are compared with experimental data of other investigations for two mixtures: a mixture of heavy water vapor with nitrogen (incondensable gas) or n-nonane vapor with nitrogen. The predictions agree quite well qualitatively and quantitatively with the experiment. The comparison of the predictions with numerical results from other publications obtained using the method of moments demonstrates the usefulness of the direct numerical solution method and the method of moments in a wide range of input data.

Indirect downscaling of global circulation model data based on atmospheric circulation and temperature for projections of future precipitation in hourly resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, F.; Bárdossy, A.

2013-07-01

Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.

Chapter 6: Temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Hauer, F. Richard; F. Richard Hauer,; Lamberti, G.A.

2017-01-01

Stream temperature has direct and indirect effects on stream ecology and is critical in determining both abiotic and biotic system responses across a hierarchy of spatial and temporal scales. Temperature variation is primarily driven by solar radiation, while landscape topography, geology, and stream reach scale ecosystem processes contribute to local variability. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in freshwater ecosystems influences habitat distributions, physiological functions, and phenology of all aquatic organisms. In this chapter we provide an overview of methods for monitoring stream temperature, characterization of thermal profiles, and modeling approaches to stream temperature prediction. Recent advances in temperature monitoring allow for more comprehensive studies of the underlying processes influencing annual variation of temperatures and how thermal variability may impact aquatic organisms at individual, population, and community based scales. Likewise, the development of spatially explicit predictive models provide a framework for simulating natural and anthropogenic effects on thermal regimes which is integral for sustainable management of freshwater systems.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kittell, David Erik; Yarrington, Cole Davis

Here, a physically-based form of the Mie–Grüneisen equation of state (EOS) is derived for calculating 1d planar shock temperatures, as well as hot spot temperature distributions from heterogeneous impact simulations. This form utilises a multi-term Einstein oscillator model for specific heat, and is completely algebraic in terms of temperature, volume, an integrating factor, and the cold curve energy. Moreover, any empirical relation for the reference pressure and energy may be substituted into the equations via the use of a generalised reference function. The complete EOS is then applied to calculations of the Hugoniot temperature and simulation of hydrodynamic pore collapsemore » using data for the secondary explosive, hexanitrostilbene (HNS). From these results, it is shown that the choice of EOS is even more significant for determining hot spot temperature distributions than planar shock states. The complete EOS is also compared to an alternative derivation assuming that specific heat is a function of temperature alone, i.e. cv(T). Temperature discrepancies on the order of 100–600 K were observed corresponding to the shock pressures required to initiate HNS (near 10 GPa). Overall, the results of this work will improve confidence in temperature predictions. By adopting this EOS, future work may be able to assign physical meaning to other thermally sensitive constitutive model parameters necessary to predict the shock initiation and detonation of heterogeneous explosives.« less

INTELLIGENT MONITORING SYSTEM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTED FIBEROPTIC SENSOR FOR POWER PLANT COMBUSTION PROCESSES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kwang Y. Lee; Stuart S. Yin; Andre Boheman

2004-12-26

The objective of the proposed work is to develop an intelligent distributed fiber optical sensor system for real-time monitoring of high temperature in a boiler furnace in power plants. Of particular interest is the estimation of spatial and temporal distributions of high temperatures within a boiler furnace, which will be essential in assessing and controlling the mechanisms that form and remove pollutants at the source, such as NOx. The basic approach in developing the proposed sensor system is three fold: (1) development of high temperature distributed fiber optical sensor capable of measuring temperatures greater than 2000 C degree with spatialmore » resolution of less than 1 cm; (2) development of distributed parameter system (DPS) models to map the three-dimensional (3D) temperature distribution for the furnace; and (3) development of an intelligent monitoring system for real-time monitoring of the 3D boiler temperature distribution. Under Task 1, improvement was made on the performance of in-fiber grating fabricated in single crystal sapphire fibers, test was performed on the grating performance of single crystal sapphire fiber with new fabrication methods, and the fabricated grating was applied to high temperature sensor. Under Task 2, models obtained from 3-D modeling of the Demonstration Boiler were used to study relationships between temperature and NOx, as the multi-dimensionality of such systems are most comparable with real-life boiler systems. Studies show that in boiler systems with no swirl, the distributed temperature sensor may provide information sufficient to predict trends of NOx at the boiler exit. Under Task 3, we investigate a mathematical approach to extrapolation of the temperature distribution within a power plant boiler facility, using a combination of a modified neural network architecture and semigroup theory. The 3D temperature data is furnished by the Penn State Energy Institute using FLUENT. Given a set of empirical data with no analytic expression, we first develop an analytic description and then extend that model along a single axis.« less

A theoretical and computational study of lithium-ion battery thermal management for electric vehicles using heat pipes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greco, Angelo; Cao, Dongpu; Jiang, Xi; Yang, Hong

2014-07-01

A simplified one-dimensional transient computational model of a prismatic lithium-ion battery cell is developed using thermal circuit approach in conjunction with the thermal model of the heat pipe. The proposed model is compared to an analytical solution based on variable separation as well as three-dimensional (3D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. The three approaches, i.e. the 1D computational model, analytical solution, and 3D CFD simulations, yielded nearly identical results for the thermal behaviours. Therefore the 1D model is considered to be sufficient to predict the temperature distribution of lithium-ion battery thermal management using heat pipes. Moreover, a maximum temperature of 27.6 °C was predicted for the design of the heat pipe setup in a distributed configuration, while a maximum temperature of 51.5 °C was predicted when forced convection was applied to the same configuration. The higher surface contact of the heat pipes allows a better cooling management compared to forced convection cooling. Accordingly, heat pipes can be used to achieve effective thermal management of a battery pack with confined surface areas.

Predicting cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients for the SAMPL5 challenge using MOSCED and the SMD solvation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz-Rodriguez, Sebastian; Bozada, Samantha M.; Phifer, Jeremy R.; Paluch, Andrew S.

2016-11-01

We present blind predictions using the solubility parameter based method MOSCED submitted for the SAMPL5 challenge on calculating cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients at 298 K. Reference data to parameterize MOSCED was generated with knowledge only of chemical structure by performing solvation free energy calculations using electronic structure calculations in the SMD continuum solvent. To maintain simplicity and use only a single method, we approximate the distribution coefficient with the partition coefficient of the neutral species. Over the final SAMPL5 set of 53 compounds, we achieved an average unsigned error of 2.2± 0.2 log units (ranking 15 out of 62 entries), the correlation coefficient ( R) was 0.6± 0.1 (ranking 35), and 72± 6 % of the predictions had the correct sign (ranking 30). While used here to predict cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients at 298 K, MOSCED is broadly applicable, allowing one to predict temperature dependent infinite dilution activity coefficients in any solvent for which parameters exist, and provides a means by which an excess Gibbs free energy model may be parameterized to predict composition dependent phase-equilibrium.

Transport lattice models of heat transport in skin with spatially heterogeneous, temperature-dependent perfusion

PubMed Central

Gowrishankar, TR; Stewart, Donald A; Martin, Gregory T; Weaver, James C

2004-01-01

Background Investigation of bioheat transfer problems requires the evaluation of temporal and spatial distributions of temperature. This class of problems has been traditionally addressed using the Pennes bioheat equation. Transport of heat by conduction, and by temperature-dependent, spatially heterogeneous blood perfusion is modeled here using a transport lattice approach. Methods We represent heat transport processes by using a lattice that represents the Pennes bioheat equation in perfused tissues, and diffusion in nonperfused regions. The three layer skin model has a nonperfused viable epidermis, and deeper regions of dermis and subcutaneous tissue with perfusion that is constant or temperature-dependent. Two cases are considered: (1) surface contact heating and (2) spatially distributed heating. The model is relevant to the prediction of the transient and steady state temperature rise for different methods of power deposition within the skin. Accumulated thermal damage is estimated by using an Arrhenius type rate equation at locations where viable tissue temperature exceeds 42°C. Prediction of spatial temperature distributions is also illustrated with a two-dimensional model of skin created from a histological image. Results The transport lattice approach was validated by comparison with an analytical solution for a slab with homogeneous thermal properties and spatially distributed uniform sink held at constant temperatures at the ends. For typical transcutaneous blood gas sensing conditions the estimated damage is small, even with prolonged skin contact to a 45°C surface. Spatial heterogeneity in skin thermal properties leads to a non-uniform temperature distribution during a 10 GHz electromagnetic field exposure. A realistic two-dimensional model of the skin shows that tissue heterogeneity does not lead to a significant local temperature increase when heated by a hot wire tip. Conclusions The heat transport system model of the skin was solved by exploiting the mathematical analogy between local thermal models and local electrical (charge transport) models, thereby allowing robust, circuit simulation software to obtain solutions to Kirchhoff's laws for the system model. Transport lattices allow systematic introduction of realistic geometry and spatially heterogeneous heat transport mechanisms. Local representations for both simple, passive functions and more complex local models can be easily and intuitively included into the system model of a tissue. PMID:15548324

Effects of life-history requirements on the distribution of a threatened reptile.

PubMed

Thompson, Denise M; Ligon, Day B; Patton, Jason C; Papeş, Monica

2017-04-01

Survival and reproduction are the two primary life-history traits essential for species' persistence; however, the environmental conditions that support each of these traits may not be the same. Despite this, reproductive requirements are seldom considered when estimating species' potential distributions. We sought to examine potentially limiting environmental factors influencing the distribution of an oviparous reptile of conservation concern with respect to the species' survival and reproduction and to assess the implications of the species' predicted climatic constraints on current conservation practices. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the probability of environmental suitability for the alligator snapping turtle (Macrochelys temminckii). We built an annual climate model to examine survival and a nesting climate model to examine reproduction. We combined incubation temperature requirements, products of modeled soil temperature data, and our estimated distributions to determine whether embryonic development constrained the northern distribution of the species. Low annual precipitation constrained the western distribution of alligator snapping turtles, whereas the northern distribution was constrained by thermal requirements during embryonic development. Only a portion of the geographic range predicted to have a high probability of suitability for alligator snapping turtle survival was estimated to be capable of supporting successful embryonic development. Historic occurrence records suggest adult alligator snapping turtles can survive in regions with colder climes than those associated with consistent and successful production of offspring. Estimated egg-incubation requirements indicated that current reintroductions at the northern edge of the species' range are within reproductively viable environmental conditions. Our results highlight the importance of considering survival and reproduction when estimating species' ecological niches, implicating conservation plans, and benefits of incorporating physiological data when evaluating species' distributions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Inverse geothermal modelling applied to Danish sedimentary basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poulsen, Søren E.; Balling, Niels; Bording, Thue S.; Mathiesen, Anders; Nielsen, Søren B.

2017-10-01

This paper presents a numerical procedure for predicting subsurface temperatures and heat-flow distribution in 3-D using inverse calibration methodology. The procedure is based on a modified version of the groundwater code MODFLOW by taking advantage of the mathematical similarity between confined groundwater flow (Darcy's law) and heat conduction (Fourier's law). Thermal conductivity, heat production and exponential porosity-depth relations are specified separately for the individual geological units of the model domain. The steady-state temperature model includes a model-based transient correction for the long-term palaeoclimatic thermal disturbance of the subsurface temperature regime. Variable model parameters are estimated by inversion of measured borehole temperatures with uncertainties reflecting their quality. The procedure facilitates uncertainty estimation for temperature predictions. The modelling procedure is applied to Danish onshore areas containing deep sedimentary basins. A 3-D voxel-based model, with 14 lithological units from surface to 5000 m depth, was built from digital geological maps derived from combined analyses of reflection seismic lines and borehole information. Matrix thermal conductivity of model lithologies was estimated by inversion of all available deep borehole temperature data and applied together with prescribed background heat flow to derive the 3-D subsurface temperature distribution. Modelled temperatures are found to agree very well with observations. The numerical model was utilized for predicting and contouring temperatures at 2000 and 3000 m depths and for two main geothermal reservoir units, the Gassum (Lower Jurassic-Upper Triassic) and Bunter/Skagerrak (Triassic) reservoirs, both currently utilized for geothermal energy production. Temperature gradients to depths of 2000-3000 m are generally around 25-30 °C km-1, locally up to about 35 °C km-1. Large regions have geothermal reservoirs with characteristic temperatures ranging from ca. 40-50 °C, at 1000-1500 m depth, to ca. 80-110 °C, at 2500-3500 m, however, at the deeper parts, most likely, with too low permeability for non-stimulated production.

Real-Time Aircraft Engine-Life Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, Richard

2014-01-01

This project developed an inservice life-monitoring system capable of predicting the remaining component and system life of aircraft engines. The embedded system provides real-time, inflight monitoring of the engine's thrust, exhaust gas temperature, efficiency, and the speed and time of operation. Based upon this data, the life-estimation algorithm calculates the remaining life of the engine components and uses this data to predict the remaining life of the engine. The calculations are based on the statistical life distribution of the engine components and their relationship to load, speed, temperature, and time.

Using a spatially-distributed hydrologic biogeochemistry model with nitrogen transport to study the spatial variation of carbon stocks and fluxes in a Critical Zone Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Y.; Eissenstat, D. M.; He, Y.; Davis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Most current biogeochemical models are 1-D and represent one point in space. Therefore, they cannot resolve topographically driven land surface heterogeneity (e.g., lateral water flow, soil moisture, soil temperature, solar radiation) or the spatial pattern of nutrient availability. A spatially distributed forest biogeochemical model with nitrogen transport, Flux-PIHM-BGC, has been developed by coupling a 1-D mechanistic biogeochemical model Biome-BGC (BBGC) with a spatially distributed land surface hydrologic model, Flux-PIHM, and adding an advection dominated nitrogen transport module. Flux-PIHM is a coupled physically based model, which incorporates a land-surface scheme into the Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM). The land surface scheme is adapted from the Noah land surface model, and is augmented by adding a topographic solar radiation module. Flux-PIHM is able to represent the link between groundwater and the surface energy balance, as well as land surface heterogeneities caused by topography. In the coupled Flux-PIHM-BGC model, each Flux-PIHM model grid couples a 1-D BBGC model, while nitrogen is transported among model grids via surface and subsurface water flow. In each grid, Flux-PIHM provides BBGC with soil moisture, soil temperature, and solar radiation, while BBGC provides Flux-PIHM with spatially-distributed leaf area index. The coupled Flux-PIHM-BGC model has been implemented at the Susquehanna/Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory. The model-predicted aboveground vegetation carbon and soil carbon distributions generally agree with the macro patterns observed within the watershed. The importance of abiotic variables (including soil moisture, soil temperature, solar radiation, and soil mineral nitrogen) in predicting aboveground carbon distribution is calculated using a random forest. The result suggests that the spatial pattern of aboveground carbon is controlled by the distribution of soil mineral nitrogen. A Flux-PIHM-BGC simulation without the nitrogen transport module is also executed. The model without nitrogen transport fails in predicting the spatial patterns of vegetation carbon, which indicates the importance of having a nitrogen transport module in spatially distributed ecohydrologic modeling.

Behavioural thermoregulation in a temperature-sensitive coral reef fish, the five-lined cardinalfish ( Cheilodipterus quinquelineatus)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nay, Tiffany J.; Johansen, Jacob L.; Habary, Adam; Steffensen, John F.; Rummer, Jodie L.

2015-12-01

As global temperatures increase, fish populations at low latitudes are thought to be at risk as they are adapted to narrow temperature ranges and live at temperatures close to their thermal tolerance limits. Behavioural movements, based on a preference for a specific temperature ( T pref), may provide a strategy to cope with changing conditions. A temperature-sensitive coral reef cardinalfish ( Cheilodipterus quinquelineatus) was exposed to 28 °C (average at collection site) or 32 °C (predicted end-of-century) for 6 weeks. T pref was determined using a shuttlebox system, which allowed fish to behaviourally manipulate their thermal environment. Regardless of treatment temperature, fish preferred 29.5 ± 0.25 °C, approximating summer average temperatures in the wild. However, 32 °C fish moved more frequently to correct their thermal environment than 28 °C fish, and daytime movements were more frequent than night-time movements. Understanding temperature-mediated movements is imperative for predicting how ocean warming will influence coral reef species and distribution patterns.

The role of abiotic conditions in shaping the long-term patterns of a high-elevation Argentine ant invasion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krushelnycky, P.D.; Joe, S.M.; Medeiros, A.C.; Daehler, C.C.; Loope, L.L.

2005-01-01

Analysis of long-term patterns of invasion can reveal the importance of abiotic factors in influencing invasion dynamics, and can help predict future patterns of spread. In the case of the invasive Argentine ant (Linepithema humile), most prior studies have investigated this species' limitations in hot and dry climates. However, spatial and temporal patterns of spread involving two ant populations over the course of 30 years at a high elevation site in Hawaii suggest that cold and wet conditions have influenced both the ant's distribution and its rate of invasion. In Haleakala National Park on Maui, we found that a population invading at lower elevation is limited by increasing rainfall and presumably by associated decreasing temperatures. A second, higher elevation population has spread outward in all directions, but rates of spread in different directions appear to have been strongly influenced by differences in elevation and temperature. Patterns of foraging activity were strongly tied to soil temperatures, supporting the hypothesis that variation in temperature can influence rates of spread. Based on past patterns of spread, we predicted a total potential range that covers nearly 50% of the park and 75% of the park's subalpine habitats. We compared this rough estimate with point predictions derived from a degree-day model for Argentine ant colony reproduction, and found that the two independent predictions match closely when soil temperatures are used in the model. The cold, wet conditions that have influenced Argentine ant invasion at this site are likely to be influential at other locations in this species' current and future worldwide distribution. ?? 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Contemporary formulation and distribution practices for cold-filled acid products: Australian industry survey and modeling of published pathogen inactivation data.

PubMed

Chapman, B; Scurrah, K J; Ross, T

2010-05-01

A survey of 12 Australian manufacturers indicated that mild-tasting acids and preservatives are used to partially replace acetic acid in cold-filled acid dressings and sauces. In contrast to traditional ambient temperature distribution practices, some manufacturers indicated that they supply the food service sector with cold-filled acid products prechilled for incorporation into ready-to-eat foods. The Comité des Industries des Mayonnaises et Sauces Condimentaires de la Communauté Economique Européenne (CIMSCEE) Code, a formulation guideline used by the industry to predict the safety of cold-filled acid formulations with respect to Salmonella enterica and Escherichia coli, does not extend to the use of acids and preservatives other than acetic acid nor does it consider the effects of chill distribution. We found insufficient data in the published literature to comprehensively model the response of S. enterica and E. coli to all of the predictor variables (i.e., pH, acetic acid, NaCl, sugars, other acids, preservatives, and storage temperature) of relevance for contemporary cold-filled acid products in Australia. In particular, we noted a lack of inactivation data for S. enterica at aqueous-phase NaCl concentrations of >3% (wt/wt). However, our simple models clearly identified pH and 1/absolute temperature of storage as the most important variables generally determining inactivation. To develop robust models to predict the effect of contemporary formulation and storage variables on product safety, additional empirical data are required. Until such models are available, our results support challenge testing of cold-filled acid products to ascertain their safety, as suggested by the CIMSCEE, but suggest consideration of challenging with both E. coli and S. enterica at incubation temperatures relevant to intended product distribution temperatures.

Predicted altitudinal shifts and reduced spatial distribution of Leishmania infantum vector species under climate change scenarios in Colombia.

PubMed

González, Camila; Paz, Andrea; Ferro, Cristina

2014-01-01

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is caused by the trypanosomatid parasite Leishmania infantum (=Leishmania chagasi), and is epidemiologically relevant due to its wide geographic distribution, the number of annual cases reported and the increase in its co-infection with HIV. Two vector species have been incriminated in the Americas: Lutzomyia longipalpis and Lutzomyia evansi. In Colombia, L. longipalpis is distributed along the Magdalena River Valley while L. evansi is only found in the northern part of the Country. Regarding the epidemiology of the disease, in Colombia the incidence of VL has decreased over the last few years without any intervention being implemented. Additionally, changes in transmission cycles have been reported with urban transmission occurring in the Caribbean Coast. In Europe and North America climate change seems to be driving a latitudinal shift of leishmaniasis transmission. Here, we explored the spatial distribution of the two known vector species of L. infantum in Colombia and projected its future distribution into climate change scenarios to establish the expansion potential of the disease. An updated database including L. longipalpis and L. evansi collection records from Colombia was compiled. Ecological niche models were performed for each species using the Maxent software and 13 Worldclim bioclimatic coverages. Projections were made for the pessimistic CSIRO A2 scenario, which predicts the higher increase in temperature due to non-emission reduction, and the optimistic Hadley B2 Scenario predicting the minimum increase in temperature. The database contained 23 records for L. evansi and 39 records for L. longipalpis, distributed along the Magdalena River Valley and the Caribbean Coast, where the potential distribution areas of both species were also predicted by Maxent. Climate change projections showed a general overall reduction in the spatial distribution of the two vector species, promoting a shift in altitudinal distribution for L. longipalpis and confining L. evansi to certain regions in the Caribbean Coast. Altitudinal shifts have been reported for cutaneous leishmaniasis vectors in Colombia and Peru. Here, we predict the same outcome for VL vectors in Colombia. Changes in spatial distribution patterns could be affecting local abundances due to climatic pressures on vector populations thus reducing the incidence of human cases. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting potential distribution of poorly known species with small database: the case of four-horned antelope Tetracerus quadricornis on the Indian subcontinent.

PubMed

Pokharel, Krishna Prasad; Ludwig, Tobias; Storch, Ilse

2016-04-01

Information gaps on the distribution of data deficient and rare species such as four-horned antelope (FHA) in Nepal may impair their conservation. We aimed to empirically predict the distribution of FHA in Nepal with the help of data from the Indian subcontinent. Additionally, we wanted to identify core areas and gaps within the reported range limits and to assess the degree of isolation of known Nepalese populations from the main distribution areas in India. The tropical part of the Indian subcontinent (65°-90° eastern longitude, 5°-30° northern latitude), that is, the areas south of the Himalayan Mountains. Using MaxEnt and accounting for sampling bias, we developed predictive distribution models from environmental and topographical variables, and known presence locations of the study species in India and Nepal. We address and discuss the use of target group vs. random background. The prediction map reveals a disjunct distribution of FHA with core areas in the tropical parts of central to southern-western India. At the scale of the Indian subcontinent, suitable FHA habitat area in Nepal was small. The Indo-Gangetic Plain isolates Nepalese from the Indian FHA populations, but the distribution area extends further south than proposed by the current IUCN map. A low to intermediate temperature seasonality as well as low precipitation during the dry and warm season contributed most to the prediction of FHA distribution. The predicted distribution maps confirm other FHA range maps but also indicate that suitable areas exist south of the known range. Results further highlight that small populations in the Nepalese Terai Arc are isolated from the Indian core distribution and therefore might be under high extinction risk.

Distribution modelling of pre-Columbian California grasslands with soil phytoliths: New insights for prehistoric grassland ecology and restoration

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Historical reconstructions of plant community distributions are useful for biogeographic studies and restoration planning, but the quality of insights gained depends on the depth and reliability of historical information available. For the Central Valley of California, one of the most altered terrestrial ecosystems on the planet, this task is particularly difficult given poor historical documentation and sparse relict assemblages of pre-invasion plant species. Coastal and interior prairies were long assumed to have been dominated by perennial bunchgrasses, but this hypothesis has recently been challenged. We evaluated this hypothesis by creating species distribution models (SDMs) using a novel approach based on the abundance of soil phytoliths (microscopic particles of biogenic silica used as a proxy for long-term grass presence) extracted from soil samples at locations statewide. Modeled historical grass abundance was consistently high along the coast and to a lesser extent in higher elevation foothills surrounding the Central Valley. SDMs found strong associations with mean temperature, temperature variability, and precipitation variability, with higher predicted abundance in regions with cooler, equable temperatures and moderated rainfall, mirroring the pattern for modern perennial grass distribution across the state. The results of this study strongly suggest that the pre-Columbian Central Valley of California was not dominated by grasses. Using soil phytolith data as input for SDMs is a promising new method for predicting the extent of prehistoric grass distributions where alternative historical datasets are lacking. PMID:29617400

Distribution modelling of pre-Columbian California grasslands with soil phytoliths: New insights for prehistoric grassland ecology and restoration.

PubMed

Fick, Stephen E; Evett, Rand R

2018-01-01

Historical reconstructions of plant community distributions are useful for biogeographic studies and restoration planning, but the quality of insights gained depends on the depth and reliability of historical information available. For the Central Valley of California, one of the most altered terrestrial ecosystems on the planet, this task is particularly difficult given poor historical documentation and sparse relict assemblages of pre-invasion plant species. Coastal and interior prairies were long assumed to have been dominated by perennial bunchgrasses, but this hypothesis has recently been challenged. We evaluated this hypothesis by creating species distribution models (SDMs) using a novel approach based on the abundance of soil phytoliths (microscopic particles of biogenic silica used as a proxy for long-term grass presence) extracted from soil samples at locations statewide. Modeled historical grass abundance was consistently high along the coast and to a lesser extent in higher elevation foothills surrounding the Central Valley. SDMs found strong associations with mean temperature, temperature variability, and precipitation variability, with higher predicted abundance in regions with cooler, equable temperatures and moderated rainfall, mirroring the pattern for modern perennial grass distribution across the state. The results of this study strongly suggest that the pre-Columbian Central Valley of California was not dominated by grasses. Using soil phytolith data as input for SDMs is a promising new method for predicting the extent of prehistoric grass distributions where alternative historical datasets are lacking.

Formation of Silicate and Titanium Clouds on Hot Jupiters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, Diana; Zhang, Xi; Gao, Peter; Parmentier, Vivien

2018-06-01

We present the first application of a bin-scheme microphysical and vertical transport model to determine the size distribution of titanium and silicate cloud particles in the atmospheres of hot Jupiters. We predict particle size distributions from first principles for a grid of planets at four representative equatorial longitudes, and investigate how observed cloud properties depend on the atmospheric thermal structure and vertical mixing. The predicted size distributions are frequently bimodal and irregular in shape. There is a negative correlation between the total cloud mass and equilibrium temperature as well as a positive correlation between the total cloud mass and atmospheric mixing. The cloud properties on the east and west limbs show distinct differences that increase with increasing equilibrium temperature. Cloud opacities are roughly constant across a broad wavelength range, with the exception of features in the mid-infrared. Forward-scattering is found to be important across the same wavelength range. Using the fully resolved size distribution of cloud particles as opposed to a mean particle size has a distinct impact on the resultant cloud opacities. The particle size that contributes the most to the cloud opacity depends strongly on the cloud particle size distribution. We predict that it is unlikely that silicate or titanium clouds are responsible for the optical Rayleigh scattering slope seen in many hot Jupiters. We suggest that cloud opacities in emission may serve as sensitive tracers of the thermal state of a planet’s deep interior through the existence or lack of a cold trap in the deep atmosphere.

Quantifying the Δ63-Δ47 offset: Determining mineral- and temperature-dependent acid fractionation factors through mass spectrometric analyses of stochastically-reordered carbonates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitsunaga, B.; Mosenfelder, J. L.; Tripati, A.

2017-12-01

"Clumped" isotope thermometry—the relationship between the formation temperature of a carbonate mineral and the relative abundance of 13C—18O bonds in its crystal lattice—is a novel geochemical proxy with a wide range of applications in paleoclimatology, geobiology, and paleoceanography. It is based on the thermodynamic propensity for rare, heavy isotopes to bond at greater rates at lower temperatures, while at high temperatures, a stochastic distribution of heavy isotopologues is achieved. Unfortunately, precision mass spectrometric determination of the abundance of isotopologues in solid materials has proven difficult; instead, the isotopic composition of carbonates has traditionally been measured through acid digestion and subsequent analysis of the product CO2 gas. For example, clumped isotope thermometry typically relates formation temperature to Δ47, the abundance of 47-amu isotopologues relative to the predicted stochastic distribution. As a consequence, the degree of fractionation that occurs between solid (Δ63) and gaseous (Δ47) phases has largely gone unstudied. By melting calcite and witherite powder at high pressures and temperatures ( 1650ºC), we have produced a suite of carbonates predicted to have stochastic distributions of CO32- isotopologues (i.e., Δ63 values of 0‰). Thus, the measured Δ47 values of CO2 produced from these samples through acid digestion should equal the degree of fractionation that occurs. We perform these measurements at a range of acid temperatures on several digestion apparatuses in order to deduce and quantify controls on acid digestion fractionation factors. We also calculate acid digestion fractionation factors using different sets of constants and compare our results to previously published estimates.

Integrating environmental variables and geospatial technologies in landscape scale habitat modelling of edible stink bugs in Zimbabwe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masocha, Mhosisi; Dube, Timothy; Maziva, Tendai

2018-06-01

Encosternum delegorguei spinola (edible stink bugs) is renowned for its high protein and contribution to the local economies of the people in Africa. Although many studies have evaluated the economic and nutritional importance of E. delegorguei, little is known about its geographic distribution and habitat yet the insects are an important source of protein and money for many people in Southern Africa. In this study maximum entropy model was used to predict the probability of presence of E. delegorguei in southern Zimbabwe. The environmental factors governing its geographic distribution in Zimbabwe were also evaluated. Presence/absence data were selected along thirty-five randomly selected transects. The climatic and topographic variables used to predict the distribution of E. delegorguei were: maximum temperature of the warmest month; minimum temperature of the coldest month; the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI); altitude; slope; and aspect. It was found that E. delegorguei is most likely to occur on steep slopes with high NDVI located at an altitude ranging of 856 and 1450 m above sea level. These suitable habitats are characterised by mild temperatures ranging from 17 °C to 28 °C. These results are in agreement with previous studies indicating that E. delegorguei is sensitive to temperature, as well as tree cover and may contribute towards conserving its habitat, which is being fragmented by anthropogenic disturbance.

Reliability formulation for the strength and fire endurance of glued-laminated beams

Treesearch

D. A. Bender

A model was developed for predicting the statistical distribution of glued-laminated beam strength and stiffness under normal temperature conditions using available long span modulus of elasticity data, end joint tension test data, and tensile strength data for laminating-grade lumber. The beam strength model predictions compared favorably with test data for glued-...

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data

Treesearch

Brooke L. Bateman; Anna M. Pidgeon; Volker C. Radeloff; Curtis H. Flather; Jeremy VanDerWal; H. Resit Akcakaya; Wayne E. Thogmartin; Thomas P. Albright; Stephen J. Vavrus; Patricia J. Heglund

2016-01-01

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in...

Performance Technology Program (PTP-S 2). Volume 9: Evaluation of reentry vehicle nosetip transition and heat transfer in the AEDC hyperballistics track G

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wassel, A. T.; Shih, W. C. L.; Curtis, R. J.

1981-01-01

Boundary layer transition and surface heating distributions on graphite fine weave carbon-carbon, and metallic nosetip materials were derived from surface temperature responses measured in nitrogen environments during both free-flight and track-guided testing in the AEDC Hyperballistics Range/Track G. Innovative test procedures were developed, and heat transfer results were validated against established theory through experiments using a super-smooth tungsten model. Quantitative definitions of mean transition front locations were established by deriving heat flux distributions from measured temperatures, and comparisons made with existing nosetip transition correlations. Qualitative transition locations were inferred directly from temperature distributions to investigate preferred orientations on fine weave nosetips. Levels of roughness augmented heat transfer were generally shown to be below values predicted by state of the art methods.

Approach to thermal equilibrium in atomic collisions.

PubMed

Zhang, P; Kharchenko, V; Dalgarno, A; Matsumi, Y; Nakayama, T; Takahashi, K

2008-03-14

The energy relaxation of fast atoms moving in a thermal bath gas is explored experimentally and theoretically. Two time scales characterize the equilibration, one a short time, in which the isotropic energy distribution profile relaxes to a Maxwellian shape at some intermediate effective temperature, and the second, a longer time in which the relaxation preserves a Maxwellian distribution and its effective temperature decreases continuously to the bath gas temperature. The formation and preservation of a Maxwellian distribution does not depend on the projectile to bath gas atom mass ratio. This two-stage behavior arises due to the dominance of small angle scattering and small energy transfer in the collisions of neutral particles. Measurements of the evolving Doppler profiles of emission from excited initially energetic nitrogen atoms traversing bath gases of helium and argon confirm the theoretical predictions.

High frequency electromagnetism, heat transfer and fluid flow coupling in ANSYS multiphysics.

PubMed

Sabliov, Cristina M; Salvi, Deepti A; Boldor, Dorin

2007-01-01

The goal of this study was to numerically predict the temperature of a liquid product heated in a continuous-flow focused microwave system by coupling high frequency electromagnetism, heat transfer, and fluid flow in ANSYS Multiphysics. The developed model was used to determine the temperature change in water processed in a 915 MHz microwave unit, under steady-state conditions. The influence of the flow rates on the temperature distribution in the liquid was assessed. Results showed that the average temperature of water increased from 25 degrees C to 34 degrees C at 2 l/min, and to 42 degrees C at 1 l/min. The highest temperature regions were found in the liquid near the center of the tube, followed by progressively lower temperature regions as the radial distance from the center increased, and finally followed by a slightly higher temperature region near the tube's wall corresponding to the energy distribution given by the Mathieu function. The energy distribution resulted in a similar temperature pattern, with the highest temperatures close to the center of the tube and lower at the walls. The presented ANSYS Multiphysics model can be easily improved to account for complex boundary conditions, phase change, temperature dependent properties, and non-Newtonian flows, which makes for an objective of future studies.

Use of a Blended Satellite and In situ Sea Surface Temperature Climate Data Record for Evaluating Long-term Impacts on Coral and Marine Mammal Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banzon, P. V. F.; Liu, G.; Forney, K.; Becker, E.; Arzayus, K. M.; Sun, L.

2016-02-01

The NOAA ¼° daily Optimum Interpolation (OI) Sea Surface temperature (SST), an in situ and satellite-based climate data record of SST available from 1981, was used to examine potential impacts of long-term temperature change on marine ecosystems. As a benthic example, historical heat stress in key tropical coral reef regions was calculated from the daily temperature data, using the NOAA Coral Reef Watch methodology. The regions with long-term ocean warming trend and experiencing more frequent thermal stress are identified as the regions with high vulnerability. While corals may be able to adapt to slow changes, no systematic adaptation has been reported with temperature increase over the past few decades. In contrast to the attached corals, marine mammals respond to changes in their environment by changing their distributions, often over large geographic areas. Habitat-based species distribution models can be developed to predict changes in the spatial distribution and abundance of marine mammals. OISST is a good predictor of the distribution of some marine mammal species, including Bryde's whales, false killer whales, and striped dolphins, and SST-based distribution models provide a foundation for projecting potential impacts of future temperature changes on marine mammals. Preliminary results from some of our research activities will be presented.

Predicting plant invasions under climate change: are species distribution models validated by field trials?

PubMed

Sheppard, Christine S; Burns, Bruce R; Stanley, Margaret C

2014-09-01

Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird-dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced frosts with climate change may provide more suitable habitats and enable the spread of these species. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Rinke, A.; Moore, J. C.; Cui, X.; Ji, D.; Li, Q.; Zhang, N.; Wang, C.; Zhang, S.; Lawrence, D. M.; McGuire, A. D.; Zhang, W.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; Saito, K.; MacDougall, A.; Burke, E.; Decharme, B.

2015-03-01

We perform a land surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies between 6 modern stand-alone land surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by 5 different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99-135 x 104 km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the best current observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 x 104 km2). However the uncertainty (1-128 x 104 km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air temperature based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0°C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.

Evaluation of an improved finite-element thermal stress calculation technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Camarda, C. J.

1982-01-01

A procedure for generating accurate thermal stresses with coarse finite element grids (Ojalvo's method) is described. The procedure is based on the observation that for linear thermoelastic problems, the thermal stresses may be envisioned as being composed of two contributions; the first due to the strains in the structure which depend on the integral of the temperature distribution over the finite element and the second due to the local variation of the temperature in the element. The first contribution can be accurately predicted with a coarse finite-element mesh. The resulting strain distribution can then be combined via the constitutive relations with detailed temperatures from a separate thermal analysis. The result is accurate thermal stresses from coarse finite element structural models even where the temperature distributions have sharp variations. The range of applicability of the method for various classes of thermostructural problems such as in-plane or bending type problems and the effect of the nature of the temperature distribution and edge constraints are addressed. Ojalvo's method is used in conjunction with the SPAR finite element program. Results are obtained for rods, membranes, a box beam and a stiffened panel.

Thermal optimization of second harmonic generation at high pump powers.

PubMed

Sahm, Alexander; Uebernickel, Mirko; Paschke, Katrin; Erbert, Götz; Tränkle, Günther

2011-11-07

We measure the temperature distribution of a 3 cm long periodically poled LiNbO₃ crystal in a single-pass second harmonic generation (SHG) setup at 488 nm. By means of three resistance heaters and directly mounted Pt100 sensors the crystal is subdivided in three sections. 9.4 W infrared pump light and 1.3 W of SHG light cause a de-homogenized temperature distribution of 0.2 K between the middle and back section. A sectional offset heating is used to homogenize the temperature in those two sections and thus increasing the conversion efficiency. A 15% higher SHG output power matching the prediction of our theoretical model is achieved.

Probabilistic micromechanics for metal matrix composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engelstad, S. P.; Reddy, J. N.; Hopkins, Dale A.

A probabilistic micromechanics-based nonlinear analysis procedure is developed to predict and quantify the variability in the properties of high temperature metal matrix composites. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the probabilistic distributions of the constituent level properties including fiber, matrix, and interphase properties, volume and void ratios, strengths, fiber misalignment, and nonlinear empirical parameters. The procedure predicts the resultant ply properties and quantifies their statistical scatter. Graphite copper and Silicon Carbide Titanlum Aluminide (SCS-6 TI15) unidirectional plies are considered to demonstrate the predictive capabilities. The procedure is believed to have a high potential for use in material characterization and selection to precede and assist in experimental studies of new high temperature metal matrix composites.

Evaluating simplistic methods to understand current distributions and forecast distribution changes under climate change scenarios: An example with coypu (Myocastor coypus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E; Sheffels, Trevor R.; Carter, Jacoby; Systma, Mark D.; Talbert, Colin

2017-01-01

Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions.

Improved fluid dynamics similarity, analysis and verification. Part 5: Analytical and experimental studies of thermal stratification phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winter, E. R. F.; Schoenhals, R. J.; Haug, R. I.; Libby, T. L.; Nelson, R. N.; Stevenson, W. H.

1968-01-01

The stratification behavior of a contained fluid subjected to transient free convection heat transfer was studied. A rectangular vessel was employed with heat transfer from two opposite walls of the vessel to the fluid. The wall temperature was increased suddenly to initiate the process and was then maintained constant throughout the transient stratification period. Thermocouples were positioned on a post at the center of the vessel. They were adjusted so that temperatures could be measured at the fluid surface and at specific depths beneath the surface. The predicted values of the surface temperature and the stratified layer thickness were found to agree reasonably well with the experimental measurements. The experiments also provided information on the transient centerline temperature distribution and the transient flow distribution.

The Momentum Distribution of Liquid ⁴He

DOE PAGES

Prisk, T. R.; Bryan, M. S.; Sokol, P. E.; ...

2017-07-24

We report a high-resolution neutron Compton scattering study of liquid ⁴He under milli-Kelvin temperature control. To interpret the scattering data, we performed Quantum Monte Carlo calculations of the atomic momentum distribution and final state effects for the conditions of temperature and density considered in the experiment. There is excellent agreement between the observed scattering and ab initio calculations of its lineshape at all temperatures. We also used model fit functions to obtain from the scattering data empirical estimates of the average atomic kinetic energy and Bose condensate fraction. These quantities are also in excellent agreement with ab initio calculations. Wemore » conclude that contemporary Quantum Monte Carlo methods can furnish accurate predictions for the properties of Bose liquids, including the condensate fraction, close to the superfluid transition temperature.« less

Temperature dosimetry using MR relaxation characteristics of poly(vinyl alcohol) cryogel (PVA-C).

PubMed

Lukas, L A; Surry, K J; Peters, T M

2001-11-01

Hyperthermic therapy is being used for a variety of medical treatments, such as tumor ablation and the enhancement of radiation therapy. Research in this area requires a tool to record the temperature distribution created by a heat source, similar to the dosimetry gels used in radiation therapy to record dose distribution. Poly(vinyl alcohol) cryogel (PVA-C) is presented as a material capable of recording temperature distributions between 45 and 70 degrees C, with less than a 1 degrees C error. An approximately linear, positive relationship between MR relaxation times and applied temperature is demonstrated, with a maximum of 16.3 ms/ degrees C change in T(1) and 10.2 ms/ degrees C in T(2) for a typical PVA-C gel. Applied heat reduces the amount of cross-linking in PVA-C, which is responsible for a predictable change in T(1) and T(2) times. Temperature distributions in PVA-C volumes may be determined by matching MR relaxation times across the volumes to calibration values produced in samples subjected to known temperatures. Factors such as thermotolerance, perfusion effects, and thermal conductivity of PVA-C are addressed for potentially extending this method to modeling thermal doses in tissue. Copyright 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Thermal Stress Analysis of a Continuous and Pulsed End-Pumped Nd:YAG Rod Crystal Using Non-Classic Conduction Heat Transfer Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mojahedi, Mahdi; Shekoohinejad, Hamidreza

2018-02-01

In this paper, temperature distribution in the continuous and pulsed end-pumped Nd:YAG rod crystal is determined using nonclassical and classical heat conduction theories. In order to find the temperature distribution in crystal, heat transfer differential equations of crystal with consideration of boundary conditions are derived based on non-Fourier's model and temperature distribution of the crystal is achieved by an analytical method. Then, by transferring non-Fourier differential equations to matrix equations, using finite element method, temperature and stress of every point of crystal are calculated in the time domain. According to the results, a comparison between classical and nonclassical theories is represented to investigate rupture power values. In continuous end pumping with equal input powers, non-Fourier theory predicts greater temperature and stress compared to Fourier theory. It also shows that with an increase in relaxation time, crystal rupture power decreases. Despite of these results, in single rectangular pulsed end-pumping condition, with an equal input power, Fourier theory indicates higher temperature and stress rather than non-Fourier theory. It is also observed that, when the relaxation time increases, maximum amounts of temperature and stress decrease.

The Effect of Background Plasma Temperature on Growth and Damping of Whistler Mode Wave Power in the Earth's Magnetosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxworth, A. S.; Golkowski, M.; Malaspina, D.; Jaynes, A. N.

2017-12-01

Whistler mode waves play a dominant role in the energy dynamics of the Earth's magnetosphere. Trajectory of whistler mode waves can be predicted by raytracing. Raytracing is a numerical method which solves the Haselgrove's equations at each time step taking the background plasma parameters in to account. The majority of previous raytracing work was conducted assuming a cold (0 K) background magnetospheric plasma. Here we perform raytracing in a finite temperature plasma with background electron and ion temperatures of a few eV. When encountered with a high energy (>10 keV) electron distribution, whistler mode waves can undergo a power attenuation and/or growth, depending on resonance conditions which are a function of wave frequency, wave normal angle and particle energy. In this work we present the wave power attenuation and growth analysis of whistler mode waves, during the interaction with a high energy electron distribution. We have numerically modelled the high energy electron distribution as an isotropic velocity distribution, as well as an anisotropic bi-Maxwellian distribution. Both cases were analyzed with and without the temperature effects for the background magnetospheric plasma. Finally we compare our results with the whistler mode energy distribution obtained by the EMFISIS instrument hosted at the Van Allen Probe spacecraft.

Predicted impacts of climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation due to climate change are expected to alter the spatial distribution of malaria transmission. This is especially true in West Africa, where malaria prevalence follows the current north-south gradients in temperature and precipitation. We assess the skill of GCMs at simulating past and present climate in West Africa in order to select the most credible climate predictions for the periods 2030-2060 and 2070-2100. We then use the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS), a mechanistic model of malaria transmission, to translate the predicted changes in climate into predicted changes availability of mosquito breeding sites, mosquito populations, and malaria prevalence. We investigate the role of acquired immunity in determining a population's response to changes in exposure to the malaria parasite.

Predictive analysis of thermal distribution and damage in thermotherapy on biological tissue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fanjul-Vélez, Félix; Arce-Diego, José Luis

2007-05-01

The use of optical techniques is increasing the possibilities and success of medical praxis in certain cases, either in tissue characterization or treatment. Photodynamic therapy (PDT) or low intensity laser treatment (LILT) are two examples of the latter. Another very interesting implementation is thermotherapy, which consists of controlling temperature increase in a pathological biological tissue. With this method it is possible to provoke an improvement on specific diseases, but a previous analysis of treatment is needed in order for the patient not to suffer any collateral damage, an essential point due to security margins in medical procedures. In this work, a predictive analysis of thermal distribution in a biological tissue irradiated by an optical source is presented. Optical propagation is based on a RTT (Radiation Transport Theory) model solved via a numerical Monte Carlo method, in a multi-layered tissue. Data obtained are included in a bio-heat equation that models heat transference, taking into account conduction, convection, radiation, blood perfusion and vaporization depending on the specific problem. Spatial-temporal differential bio-heat equation is solved via a numerical finite difference approach. Experimental temperature distributions on animal tissue irradiated by laser radiation are shown. From thermal distribution in tissue, thermal damage is studied, based on an Arrhenius analysis, as a way of predicting harmful effects. The complete model can be used for concrete treatment proposals, as a way of predicting treatment effects and consequently decide which optical source parameters are appropriate for the specific disease, mainly wavelength and optical power, with reasonable security margins in the process.

A simplified model to predict diurnal water temperature dynamics in a shallow tropical water pool.

PubMed

Paaijmans, Krijn P; Heusinkveld, Bert G; Jacobs, Adrie F G

2008-11-01

Water temperature is a critical regulator in the growth and development of malaria mosquito immatures, as they are poikilothermic. Measuring or estimating the diurnal temperature ranges to which these immatures are exposed is of the utmost importance, as these immatures will develop into adults that can transmit malaria. Recent attempts to predict the daily water temperature dynamics in mosquito breeding sites in Kenya have been successful. However, the developed model may be too complex, as the sophisticated equipment that was used for detailed meteorological observations is not widely distributed in Africa, making it difficult to predict the daily water temperature dynamics on a local scale. Therefore, we compared two energy budget models with earlier made observations of the daily water temperature dynamics in a small, shallow and clear water pool (diameter 0.96 m, depth 0.32 m) in Kenya. This paper describes (1) a complex 1-Dimensional model, and (2) a simplified second model, and (3) shows that both models mimic the water temperature dynamics in the water pool accurately. The latter model has the advantage that it only needs common weather data (air temperature, air humidity, wind speed and cloud cover) to estimate the diurnal temperature dynamics in breeding sites of African malaria mosquitoes.

Distribution drivers and physiological responses in geothermal bryophyte communities.

PubMed

García, Estefanía Llaneza; Rosenstiel, Todd N; Graves, Camille; Shortlidge, Erin E; Eppley, Sarah M

2016-04-01

Our ability to explain community structure rests on our ability to define the importance of ecological niches, including realized ecological niches, in shaping communities, but few studies of plant distributions have combined predictive models with physiological measures. Using field surveys and statistical modeling, we predicted distribution drivers in geothermal bryophyte (moss) communities of Lassen Volcanic National Park (California, USA). In the laboratory, we used drying and rewetting experiments to test whether the strong species-specific effects of relative humidity on distributions predicted by the models were correlated with physiological characters. We found that the three most common bryophytes in geothermal communities were significantly affected by three distinct distribution drivers: temperature, light, and relative humidity. Aulacomnium palustre, whose distribution is significantly affected by relative humidity according to our model, and which occurs in high-humidity sites, showed extreme signs of stress after drying and never recovered optimal values of PSII efficiency after rewetting. Campylopus introflexus, whose distribution is not affected by humidity according to our model, was able to maintain optimal values of PSII efficiency for 48 hr at 50% water loss and recovered optimal values of PSII efficiency after rewetting. Our results suggest that species-specific environmental stressors tightly constrain the ecological niches of geothermal bryophytes. Tests of tolerance to drying in two bryophyte species corresponded with model predictions of the comparative importance of relative humidity as distribution drivers for these species. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Configuration of the thermal landscape determines thermoregulatory performance of ectotherms

PubMed Central

Sears, Michael W.; Angilletta, Michael J.; Schuler, Matthew S.; Borchert, Jason; Dilliplane, Katherine F.; Stegman, Monica; Rusch, Travis W.; Mitchell, William A.

2016-01-01

Although most organisms thermoregulate behaviorally, biologists still cannot easily predict whether mobile animals will thermoregulate in natural environments. Current models fail because they ignore how the spatial distribution of thermal resources constrains thermoregulatory performance over space and time. To overcome this limitation, we modeled the spatially explicit movements of animals constrained by access to thermal resources. Our models predict that ectotherms thermoregulate more accurately when thermal resources are dispersed throughout space than when these resources are clumped. This prediction was supported by thermoregulatory behaviors of lizards in outdoor arenas with known distributions of environmental temperatures. Further, simulations showed how the spatial structure of the landscape qualitatively affects responses of animals to climate. Biologists will need spatially explicit models to predict impacts of climate change on local scales. PMID:27601639

Linking phytoplankton community metabolism to the individual size distribution.

PubMed

Padfield, Daniel; Buckling, Angus; Warfield, Ruth; Lowe, Chris; Yvon-Durocher, Gabriel

2018-05-25

Quantifying variation in ecosystem metabolism is critical to predicting the impacts of environmental change on the carbon cycle. We used a metabolic scaling framework to investigate how body size and temperature influence phytoplankton community metabolism. We tested this framework using phytoplankton sampled from an outdoor mesocosm experiment, where communities had been either experimentally warmed (+ 4 °C) for 10 years or left at ambient temperature. Warmed and ambient phytoplankton communities differed substantially in their taxonomic composition and size structure. Despite this, the response of primary production and community respiration to long- and short-term warming could be estimated using a model that accounted for the size- and temperature dependence of individual metabolism, and the community abundance-body size distribution. This work demonstrates that the key metabolic fluxes that determine the carbon balance of planktonic ecosystems can be approximated using metabolic scaling theory, with knowledge of the individual size distribution and environmental temperature. © 2018 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Studying the effects of the heat stress on the various layers of human skin using damage function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aijaz, Mir; Khanday, M. A.

2016-03-01

This paper develops a model to identify the effects of thermal stress on temperature distribution and damage in human dermal regions. The design and selection of the model takes into account many factors effecting the temperature distribution of skin, e.g., thermal conductance, perfusion, metabolic heat generation and thermal protective capabilities of the skin. The transient temperature distribution within the region is simulated using a two-dimensional finite element model of the Pennes’ bioheat equation. The relationship between temperature and time is integrated to view the damage caused to human skin by using Henriques’ model Henriques, F. C., Arch. Pathol. 43 (1947) 489-502]. The Henriques’ damage model is found to be more desirable for use in predicting the threshold of thermal damage. This work can be helpful in both emergency medicines as well as to plastic surgeon in deciding upon a course of action for the treatment of different burn injuries.

Effects of transverse temperature field nonuniformity on stress in silicon sheet growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mataga, P. A.; Hutchinson, J. W.; Chalmers, B.; Bell, R. O.; Kalejs, J. P.

1987-01-01

Stress and strain rate distributions are calculated using finite element analysis for steady-state growth of thin silicon sheet temperature nonuniformities imposed in the transverse (sheet width) dimension. Significant reductions in residual stress are predicted to occur for the case where the sheet edge is cooled relative to its center provided plastic deformation with high creep rates is present.

Transverse limited phase space model with Glauber geometry for high-energy nucleus-nucleus collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ding Wei; Yen, Edward

1989-08-01

We propose a detailed model, combining the concepts from a partition temperature model and wounded nucleon model, to describe high-energy nucleus-nucleus collisions. One partition temperature is associated with collisions at a fixed wounded nucleon number. The (pseudo-) rapidity distributions are calculated and compared with experimental data. Predictions at higher energy are also presented.

The influence of coarse-scale environmental features on current and predicted future distributions of narrow-range endemic crayfish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dyer, Joseph J.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas A.; Bergey, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

1.A major limitation to effective management of narrow-range crayfish populations is the paucity of information on the spatial distribution of crayfish species and a general understanding of the interacting environmental variables that drive current and future potential distributional patterns. 2.Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling Software (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current and future potential distributions of four endemic crayfish species in the Ouachita Mountains. Current distributions were modelled using climate, geology, soils, land use, landform and flow variables thought to be important to lotic crayfish. Potential changes in the distribution were forecast by using models trained on current conditions and projecting onto the landscape predicted under climate-change scenarios. 3.The modelled distribution of the four species closely resembled the perceived distribution of each species but also predicted populations in streams and catchments where they had not previously been collected. Soils, elevation and winter precipitation and temperature most strongly related to current distributions and represented 6587% of the predictive power of the models. Model accuracy was high for all models, and model predictions of new populations were verified through additional field sampling. 4.Current models created using two spatial resolutions (1 and 4.5km2) showed that fine-resolution data more accurately represented current distributions. For three of the four species, the 1-km2 resolution models resulted in more conservative predictions. However, the modelled distributional extent of Orconectes leptogonopodus was similar regardless of data resolution. Field validations indicated 1-km2 resolution models were more accurate than 4.5-km2 resolution models. 5.Future projected (4.5-km2 resolution models) model distributions indicated three of the four endemic species would have truncated ranges with low occurrence probabilities under the low-emission scenario, whereas two of four species would be severely restricted in range under moderatehigh emissions. Discrepancies in the two emission scenarios probably relate to the exclusion of behavioural adaptations from species-distribution models. 6.These model predictions illustrate possible impacts of climate change on narrow-range endemic crayfish populations. The predictions do not account for biotic interactions, migration, local habitat conditions or species adaptation. However, we identified the constraining landscape features acting on these populations that provide a framework for addressing habitat needs at a fine scale and developing targeted and systematic monitoring programmes.

Using Streamflow and Stream Temperature to Assess the Potential Responses of Freshwater Fish to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

VanCompernolle, M.; Ficklin, D. L.; Knouft, J.

2017-12-01

Streamflow and stream temperature are key variables influencing growth, reproduction, and mortality of freshwater fish. Climate-induced changes in these variables are expected to alter the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. Using Maxent, a species distribution model (SDM) based on the principal of maximum entropy, we predicted potential distributional responses of 100 fish species in the Mobile River Basin (MRB) to changes in climate based on contemporary and future streamflow and stream temperature estimates. Geologic, topographic, and landcover data were also included in each SDM to determine the contribution of these physical variables in defining areas of suitable habitat for each species. Using an ensemble of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections under a high emissions scenario, predicted distributions for each species across the MRB were produced for both a historical time period, 1975-1994, and a future time period, 2060-2079, and changes in total area and the percent change in historical suitable habitat for each species were calculated. Results indicate that flow (28%), temperature (29%), and geology (29%), on average, contribute evenly to determining areas of suitable habitat for fish species in the MRB, with landcover and slope playing more limited roles. Temperature contributed slightly more predictive ability to SDMs (31%) for the 77 species experiencing overall declines in areas of suitable habitat, but only 21% for the 23 species gaining habitat across all GCMs. Species are expected to lose between 15-24% of their historical suitable habitat, with threatened and endangered species losing 22-30% and those endemic to the MRB losing 19-28%. Sculpins (Cottidae) are expected to lose the largest amount of historical habitat (up to 84%), while pygmy sunfish (Elassomatidae) are expected to lose less than 1% of historical habitat. Understanding which species may be at risk of habitat loss under future projections of climate change can help fisheries managers better prepare for potential alterations in species composition not only within the MRB, but other watersheds throughout the world.

Overlooked habitat of a vulnerable gorgonian revealed in the Mediterranean and Eastern Atlantic by ecological niche modelling

PubMed Central

Boavida, Joana; Assis, Jorge; Silva, Inga; Serrão, Ester A.

2016-01-01

Factors shaping the distribution of mesophotic octocorals (30–200 m depth) remain poorly understood, potentially leaving overlooked coral areas, particularly near their bathymetric and geographic distributional limits. Yet, detailed knowledge about habitat requirements is crucial for conservation of sensitive gorgonians. Here we use Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) relating thirteen environmental predictors and a highly comprehensive presence dataset, enhanced by SCUBA diving surveys, to investigate the suitable habitat of an important structuring species, Paramuricea clavata, throughout its distribution (Mediterranean and adjacent Atlantic). Models showed that temperature (11.5–25.5 °C) and slope are the most important predictors carving the niche of P. clavata. Prediction throughout the full distribution (TSS 0.9) included known locations of P. clavata alongside with previously unknown or unreported sites along the coast of Portugal and Africa, including seamounts. These predictions increase the understanding of the potential distribution for the northern Mediterranean and indicate suitable hard bottom areas down to >150 m depth. Poorly sampled habitats with predicted presence along Algeria, Alboran Sea and adjacent Atlantic coasts encourage further investigation. We propose that surveys of target areas from the predicted distribution map, together with local expert knowledge, may lead to discoveries of new P. clavata sites and identify priority conservation areas. PMID:27841263

Predicting the melting temperature of ice-Ih with only electronic structure information as input.

PubMed

Pinnick, Eric R; Erramilli, Shyamsunder; Wang, Feng

2012-07-07

The melting temperature of ice-Ih was calculated with only electronic structure information as input by creating a problem-specific force field. The force field, Water model by AFM for Ice and Liquid (WAIL), was developed with the adaptive force matching (AFM) method by fitting to post-Hartree-Fock quality forces obtained in quantum mechanics∕molecular mechanics calculations. WAIL predicts the ice-Ih melting temperature to be 270 K. The model also predicts the densities of ice and water, the temperature of maximum density of water, the heat of vaporizations, and the radial distribution functions for both ice and water in good agreement with experimental measurements. The non-dissociative WAIL model is very similar to a flexible version of the popular TIP4P potential and has comparable computational cost. By customizing to problem-specific configurations with the AFM approach, the resulting model is remarkably more accurate than any variants of TIP4P for simulating ice-Ih and water in the temperature range from 253 K and 293 K under ambient pressure.

Shelf-life prediction models for ready-to-eat fresh cut salads: Testing in real cold chain.

PubMed

Tsironi, Theofania; Dermesonlouoglou, Efimia; Giannoglou, Marianna; Gogou, Eleni; Katsaros, George; Taoukis, Petros

2017-01-02

The aim of the study was to develop and test the applicability of predictive models for shelf-life estimation of ready-to-eat (RTE) fresh cut salads in realistic distribution temperature conditions in the food supply chain. A systematic kinetic study of quality loss of RTE mixed salad (lollo rosso lettuce-40%, lollo verde lettuce-45%, rocket-15%) packed under modified atmospheres (3% O 2 , 10% CO 2 , 87% N 2 ) was conducted. Microbial population (total viable count, Pseudomonas spp., lactic acid bacteria), vitamin C, colour and texture were the measured quality parameters. Kinetic models for these indices were developed to determine the quality loss and calculate product remaining shelf-life (SL R ). Storage experiments were conducted at isothermal (2.5-15°C) and non-isothermal temperature conditions (T eff =7.8°C defined as the constant temperature that results in the same quality value as the variable temperature distribution) for validation purposes. Pseudomonas dominated spoilage, followed by browning and chemical changes. The end of shelf-life correlated with a Pseudomonas spp. level of 8 log(cfu/g), and 20% loss of the initial vitamin C content. The effect of temperature on these quality parameters was expressed by the Arrhenius equation; activation energy (E a ) value was 69.1 and 122.6kJ/mol for Pseudomonas spp. growth and vitamin C loss rates, respectively. Shelf-life prediction models were also validated in real cold chain conditions (including the stages of transport to and storage at retail distribution center, transport to and display at 7 retail stores, transport to and storage in domestic refrigerators). The quality level and SL R estimated after 2-3days of domestic storage (time of consumption) ranged between 1 and 8days at 4°C and was predicted within satisfactory statistical error by the kinetic models. T eff in the cold chain ranged between 3.7 and 8.3°C. Using the validated models, SL R of RTE fresh cut salad can be estimated at any point of the cold chain if the temperature history is known. Shelf-life models of validated applicability can serve as an effective tool for shelf-life assessment and the development of new products in the fresh produce food sector. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Shifts in the potential distribution of Sky Island plant communities in response to climate change

Treesearch

John A. Kupfer; Jeff Balmat; Jacqueline L. Smith

2005-01-01

To examine potential responses of sky island ecosystem pattern to projected climate changes, we used topographic and climatic data to develop a predictive model of plant community distribution in Saguaro National Park East, AZ. Increasing temperatures led to an upslope movement of communities and increased the area of desert scrub at the expense of montane conifer...

A TEX86 surface sediment database and extended Bayesian calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tierney, Jessica E.; Tingley, Martin P.

2015-06-01

Quantitative estimates of past temperature changes are a cornerstone of paleoclimatology. For a number of marine sediment-based proxies, the accuracy and precision of past temperature reconstructions depends on a spatial calibration of modern surface sediment measurements to overlying water temperatures. Here, we present a database of 1095 surface sediment measurements of TEX86, a temperature proxy based on the relative cyclization of marine archaeal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) lipids. The dataset is archived in a machine-readable format with geospatial information, fractional abundances of lipids (if available), and metadata. We use this new database to update surface and subsurface temperature calibration models for TEX86 and demonstrate the applicability of the TEX86 proxy to past temperature prediction. The TEX86 database confirms that surface sediment GDGT distribution has a strong relationship to temperature, which accounts for over 70% of the variance in the data. Future efforts, made possible by the data presented here, will seek to identify variables with secondary relationships to GDGT distributions, such as archaeal community composition.

Minimizing hot spot temperature in asymmetric gradient coil design.

PubMed

While, Peter T; Forbes, Larry K; Crozier, Stuart

2011-08-01

Heating caused by gradient coils is a considerable concern in the operation of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanners. Hot spots can occur in regions where the gradient coil windings are closely spaced. These problem areas are particularly common in the design of gradient coils with asymmetrically located target regions. In this paper, an extension of an existing coil design method is described, to enable the design of asymmetric gradient coils with reduced hot spot temperatures. An improved model is presented for predicting steady-state spatial temperature distributions for gradient coils. A great amount of flexibility is afforded by this model to consider a wide range of geometries and system material properties. A feature of the temperature distribution related to the temperature gradient is used in a relaxed fixed point iteration routine for successively altering coil windings to have a lower hot spot temperature. Results show that significant reductions in peak temperature are possible at little or no cost to coil performance when compared to minimum power coils of equivalent field error.

Geostatistics and remote sensing using NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery as predictive tools in tick distribution and habitat suitability estimations for Boophilus microplus (Acari: Ixodidae) in South America. National Oceanographic and Atmosphere Administration-Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer.

PubMed

Estrada-Peña, A

1999-02-01

Remote sensing based on NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmosphere Administration) satellite imagery was used, together with geostatistics (cokriging) to model the correlation between the temperature and vegetation variables and the distribution of the cattle tick, Boophilus microplus (Canestrini), in the Neotropical region. The results were used to map the B. microplus habitat suitability on a continental scale. A database of B. microplus capture localities was used, which was tabulated with the AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) images from the NOAA satellite series. They were obtained at 10 days intervals between 1983 and 1994, with an 8 km resolution. A cokriging system was generated to extrapolate the results. The data for habitat suitability obtained through two vegetation and four temperature variables were strongly correlated with the known distribution of B. microplus (sensitivity 0.91; specificity 0.88) and provide a good estimation of the tick habitat suitability. This model could be used as a guide to the correct interpretation of the distribution limits of B. microplus. It can be also used to prepare eradication campaigns or to make predictions about the effects of global change on the distribution of the parasite.

Disturbance Impacts on Thermal Hot Spots and Hot Moments at the Peatland-Atmosphere Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, R. M.; Kettridge, N.; Devito, K. J.; Petrone, R. M.; Mendoza, C. A.; Waddington, J. M.; Krause, S.

2018-01-01

Soil-surface temperature acts as a master variable driving nonlinear terrestrial ecohydrological, biogeochemical, and micrometeorological processes, inducing short-lived or spatially isolated extremes across heterogeneous landscape surfaces. However, subcanopy soil-surface temperatures have been, to date, characterized through isolated, spatially discrete measurements. Using spatially complex forested northern peatlands as an exemplar ecosystem, we explore the high-resolution spatiotemporal thermal behavior of this critical interface and its response to disturbances by using Fiber-Optic Distributed Temperature Sensing. Soil-surface thermal patterning was identified from 1.9 million temperature measurements under undisturbed, trees removed and vascular subcanopy removed conditions. Removing layers of the structurally diverse vegetation canopy not only increased mean temperatures but it shifted the spatial and temporal distribution, range, and longevity of thermal hot spots and hot moments. We argue that linking hot spots and/or hot moments with spatially variable ecosystem processes and feedbacks is key for predicting ecosystem function and resilience.

Structural assessment of a Space Station solar dynamic heat receiver thermal energy storage canister

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tong, M. T.; Kerslake, T. W.; Thompson, R. L.

1988-01-01

This paper assesses the structural performance of a Space Station thermal energy storage (TES) canister subject to orbital solar flux variation and engine cold start-up operating conditions. The impact of working fluid temperature and salt-void distribution on the canister structure are assessed. Both analytical and experimental studies were conducted to determine the temperature distribution of the canister. Subsequent finite-element structural analyses of the canister were performed using both analytically and experimentally obtained temperatures. The Arrhenius creep law was incorporated into the procedure, using secondary creep data for the canister material, Haynes-188 alloy. The predicted cyclic creep strain accumulations at the hot spot were used to assess the structural performance of the canister. In addition, the structural performance of the canister based on the analytically-determined temperature was compared with that based on the experimentally-measured temperature data.

Structural assessment of a space station solar dynamic heat receiver thermal energy storage canister

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, R. L.; Kerslake, T. W.; Tong, M. T.

1988-01-01

The structural performance of a space station thermal energy storage (TES) canister subject to orbital solar flux variation and engine cold start up operating conditions was assessed. The impact of working fluid temperature and salt-void distribution on the canister structure are assessed. Both analytical and experimental studies were conducted to determine the temperature distribution of the canister. Subsequent finite element structural analyses of the canister were performed using both analytically and experimentally obtained temperatures. The Arrhenius creep law was incorporated into the procedure, using secondary creep data for the canister material, Haynes 188 alloy. The predicted cyclic creep strain accumulations at the hot spot were used to assess the structural performance of the canister. In addition, the structural performance of the canister based on the analytically determined temperature was compared with that based on the experimentally measured temperature data.

Finite Element Analysis in the Estimation of Air-Gap Torque and Surface Temperature of Induction Machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mr., J. Ravi Kumar; Banakara, Basavaraja, Dr.

2017-08-01

This paper presents electromagnetic and thermal behavior of Induction Motor (IM) through the modeling and analysis by applying multiphysics coupled Finite Element Analysis (FEA). Therefore prediction of the magnetic flux, electromagnetic torque, stator and rotor losses and temperature distribution inside an operating electric motor are the most important issues during its design. Prediction and estimation of these parameters allows design engineers to decide capability of the machine for the proposed load, temperature rating and its application for which it is being designed ensuring normal motor operation at rated conditions. In this work, multiphysics coupled electromagnetic - thermal modeling and analysis of induction motor at rated and high frequency has carried out applying Arkkio’s torque method. COMSOL Multiphysics software is used for modeling and finite element analysis of IM. Transient electromagnetic torque, magnetic field distribution, speed-torque characteristics of IM were plotted and studied at different frequencies. This proposed work helps in the design and prediction of accurate performance of induction motor specific to various industrial drive applications. Results obtained are also validated with experimental analysis. The main purpose of this model is to use it as an integral part of the design aiming to system optimization of Variable Speed Drive (VSD) and its components using coupled simulations.

Scavenging of radioactive soluble gases from inhomogeneous atmosphere by evaporating rain droplets.

PubMed

Elperin, Tov; Fominykh, Andrew; Krasovitov, Boris

2015-05-01

We analyze effects of inhomogeneous concentration and temperature distributions in the atmosphere, rain droplet evaporation and radioactive decay of soluble gases on the rate of trace gas scavenging by rain. We employ a one-dimensional model of precipitation scavenging of radioactive soluble gaseous pollutants that is valid for small gradients and non-uniform initial altitudinal distributions of temperature and concentration in the atmosphere. We assume that conditions of equilibrium evaporation of rain droplets are fulfilled. It is demonstrated that transient altitudinal distribution of concentration under the influence of rain is determined by the linear wave equation that describes propagation of a scavenging wave front. The obtained equation is solved by the method of characteristics. Scavenging coefficients are calculated for wet removal of gaseous iodine-131 and tritiated water vapor (HTO) for the exponential initial distribution of trace gases concentration in the atmosphere and linear temperature distribution. Theoretical predictions of the dependence of the magnitude of the scavenging coefficient on rain intensity for tritiated water vapor are in good agreement with the available atmospheric measurements. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determination of fluence rate and temperature distributions in the rat brain; implications for photodynamic therapy.

PubMed

Angell-Petersen, Even; Hirschberg, Henry; Madsen, Steen J

2007-01-01

Light and heat distributions are measured in a rat glioma model used in photodynamic therapy. A fiber delivering 632-nm light is fixed in the brain of anesthetized BDIX rats. Fluence rates are measured using calibrated isotropic probes that are positioned stereotactically. Mathematical models are then used to derive tissue optical properties, enabling calculation of fluence rate distributions for general tumor and light application geometries. The fluence rates in tumor-free brains agree well with the models based on diffusion theory and Monte Carlo simulation. In both cases, the best fit is found for absorption and reduced scattering coefficients of 0.57 and 28 cm(-1), respectively. In brains with implanted BT(4)C tumors, a discrepancy between diffusion and Monte Carlo-derived two-layer models is noted. Both models suggest that tumor tissue has higher absorption and less scattering than normal brain. Temperatures are measured by inserting thermocouples directly into tumor-free brains. A model based on diffusion theory and the bioheat equation is found to be in good agreement with the experimental data and predict a thermal penetration depth of 0.60 cm in normal rat brain. The predicted parameters can be used to estimate the fluences, fluence rates, and temperatures achieved during photodynamic therapy.

Data-Conditioned Distributions of Groundwater Recharge Under Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaughlin, D.; Ng, G. C.; Entekhabi, D.; Scanlon, B.

2008-12-01

Groundwater recharge is likely to be impacted by climate change, with changes in precipitation amounts altering moisture availability and changes in temperature affecting evaporative demand. This could have major implications for sustainable aquifer pumping rates and contaminant transport into groundwater reservoirs in the future, thus making predictions of recharge under climate change very important. Unfortunately, in dry environments where groundwater resources are often most critical, low recharge rates are difficult to resolve due to high sensitivity to modeling and input errors. Some recent studies on climate change and groundwater have considered recharge using a suite of general circulation model (GCM) weather predictions, an obvious and key source of uncertainty. This work extends beyond those efforts by also accounting for uncertainty in other land-surface model inputs in a probabilistic manner. Recharge predictions are made using a range of GCM projections for a rain-fed cotton site in the semi-arid Southern High Plains region of Texas. Results showed that model simulations using a range of unconstrained literature-based parameter values produce highly uncertain and often misleading recharge rates. Thus, distributional recharge predictions are found using soil and vegetation parameters conditioned on current unsaturated zone soil moisture and chloride concentration observations; assimilation of observations is carried out with an ensemble importance sampling method. Our findings show that the predicted distribution shapes can differ for the various GCM conditions considered, underscoring the importance of probabilistic analysis over deterministic simulations. The recharge predictions indicate that the temporal distribution (over seasons and rain events) of climate change will be particularly critical for groundwater impacts. Overall, changes in recharge amounts and intensity were often more pronounced than changes in annual precipitation and temperature, thus suggesting high susceptibility of groundwater systems to future climate change. Our approach provides a probabilistic sensitivity analysis of recharge under potential climate changes, which will be critical for future management of water resources.

Spatial glass transition temperature variations in polymer glass: application to a maltodextrin-water system.

PubMed

van Sleeuwen, Rutger M T; Zhang, Suying; Normand, Valéry

2012-03-12

A model was developed to predict spatial glass transition temperature (T(g)) distributions in glassy maltodextrin particles during transient moisture sorption. The simulation employed a numerical mass transfer model with a concentration dependent apparent diffusion coefficient (D(app)) measured using Dynamic Vapor Sorption. The mass average moisture content increase and the associated decrease in T(g) were successfully modeled over time. Large spatial T(g) variations were predicted in the particle, resulting in a temporary broadening of the T(g) region. Temperature modulated differential scanning calorimetry confirmed that the variation in T(g) in nonequilibrated samples was larger than in equilibrated samples. This experimental broadening was characterized by an almost doubling of the T(g) breadth compared to the start of the experiment. Upon reaching equilibrium, both the experimental and predicted T(g) breadth contracted back to their initial value.

Energy gradients and the geographic distribution of local ant diversity.

PubMed

Kaspari, Michael; Ward, Philip S; Yuan, May

2004-08-01

Geographical diversity gradients, even among local communities, can ultimately arise from geographical differences in speciation and extinction rates. We evaluated three models--energy-speciation, energy-abundance, and area--that predict how geographic trends in net diversification rates generate trends in diversity. We sampled 96 litter ant communities from four provinces: Australia, Madagascar, North America, and South America. The energy-speciation hypothesis best predicted ant species richness by accurately predicting the slope of the temperature diversity curve, and accounting for most of the variation in diversity. The communities showed a strong latitudinal gradient in species richness as well as inter-province differences in diversity. The former vanished in the temperature-diversity residuals, suggesting that the latitudinal gradient arises primarily from higher diversification rates in the tropics. However, inter-province differences in diversity persisted in those residuals--South American communities remained more diverse than those in North America and Australia even after the effects of temperature were removed.

Predictions of avian Plasmodium expansion under climate change.

PubMed

Loiseau, Claire; Harrigan, Ryan J; Bichet, Coraline; Julliard, Romain; Garnier, Stéphane; Lendvai, Adám Z; Chastel, Olivier; Sorci, Gabriele

2013-01-01

Vector-borne diseases are particularly responsive to changing environmental conditions. Diurnal temperature variation has been identified as a particularly important factor for the development of malaria parasites within vectors. Here, we conducted a survey across France, screening populations of the house sparrow (Passer domesticus) for malaria (Plasmodium relictum). We investigated whether variation in remotely-sensed environmental variables accounted for the spatial variation observed in prevalence and parasitemia. While prevalence was highly correlated to diurnal temperature range and other measures of temperature variation, environmental conditions could not predict spatial variation in parasitemia. Based on our empirical data, we mapped malaria distribution under climate change scenarios and predicted that Plasmodium occurrence will spread to regions in northern France, and that prevalence levels are likely to increase in locations where transmission already occurs. Our findings, based on remote sensing tools coupled with empirical data suggest that climatic change will significantly alter transmission of malaria parasites.

Derivation of hydrous pyrolysis kinetic parameters from open-system pyrolysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, Yu-Hsin; Huang, Wuu-Liang

2010-05-01

Kinetic information is essential to predict the temperature, timing or depth of hydrocarbon generation within a hydrocarbon system. The most common experiments for deriving kinetic parameters are mainly by open-system pyrolysis. However, it has been shown that the conditions of open-system pyrolysis are deviant from nature by its low near-ambient pressure and high temperatures. Also, the extrapolation of heating rates in open-system pyrolysis to geological conditions may be questionable. Recent study of Lewan and Ruble shows hydrous-pyrolysis conditions can simulate the natural conditions better and its applications are supported by two case studies with natural thermal-burial histories. Nevertheless, performing hydrous pyrolysis experiment is really tedious and requires large amount of sample, while open-system pyrolysis is rather convenient and efficient. Therefore, the present study aims at the derivation of convincing distributed hydrous pyrolysis Ea with only routine open-system Rock-Eval data. Our results unveil that there is a good correlation between open-system Rock-Eval parameter Tmax and the activation energy (Ea) derived from hydrous pyrolysis. The hydrous pyrolysis single Ea can be predicted from Tmax based on the correlation, while the frequency factor (A0) is estimated based on the linear relationship between single Ea and log A0. Because the Ea distribution is more rational than single Ea, we modify the predicted single hydrous pyrolysis Ea into distributed Ea by shifting the pattern of Ea distribution from open-system pyrolysis until the weight mean Ea distribution equals to the single hydrous pyrolysis Ea. Moreover, it has been shown that the shape of the Ea distribution is very much alike the shape of Tmax curve. Thus, in case of the absence of open-system Ea distribution, we may use the shape of Tmax curve to get the distributed hydrous pyrolysis Ea. The study offers a new approach as a simple method for obtaining distributed hydrous pyrolysis Ea with only routine open-system Rock-Eval data, which will allow for better estimating hydrocarbon generation.

Response to climate change of montane herbaceous plants in the genus Rhodiola predicted by ecological niche modelling.

PubMed

You, Jianling; Qin, Xiaoping; Ranjitkar, Sailesh; Lougheed, Stephen C; Wang, Mingcheng; Zhou, Wen; Ouyang, Dongxin; Zhou, Yin; Xu, Jianchu; Zhang, Wenju; Wang, Yuguo; Yang, Ji; Song, Zhiping

2018-04-12

Climate change profoundly influences species distributions. These effects are evident in poleward latitudinal range shifts for many taxa, and upward altitudinal range shifts for alpine species, that resulted from increased annual global temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 22,000 BP). For the latter, the ultimate consequence of upward shifts may be extinction as species in the highest alpine ecosystems can migrate no further, a phenomenon often characterized as "nowhere to go". To predict responses to climate change of the alpine plants on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), we used ecological niche modelling (ENM) to estimate the range shifts of 14 Rhodiola species, beginning with the Last Interglacial (ca. 120,000-140,000 BP) through to 2050. Distributions of Rhodiola species appear to be shaped by temperature-related variables. The southeastern QTP, and especially the Hengduan Mountains, were the origin and center of distribution for Rhodiola, and also served as refugia during the LGM. Under future climate scenario in 2050, Rhodiola species might have to migrate upward and northward, but many species would expand their ranges contra the prediction of the "nowhere to go" hypothesis, caused by the appearance of additional potential habitat concomitant with the reduction of permafrost with climate warming.

THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODEL FOR HYPERTHERMIA CALCULATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Realistic three-dimensional models that predict temperature distributions with a high degree of spatial resolution in bodies exposed to electromagnetic (EM) fields are required in the application of hyperthermia for cancer treatment. To ascertain the thermophysiologic response of...

Improving the Representation of Snow Crystal Properties Within a Single-Moment Microphysics Scheme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew L.; Petersen, Walter A.; Case, Jonathan L.; Dembek, S. R.

2010-01-01

As computational resources continue their expansion, weather forecast models are transitioning to the use of parameterizations that predict the evolution of hydrometeors and their microphysical processes, rather than estimating the bulk effects of clouds and precipitation that occur on a sub-grid scale. These parameterizations are referred to as single-moment, bulk water microphysics schemes, as they predict the total water mass among hydrometeors in a limited number of classes. Although the development of single moment microphysics schemes have often been driven by the need to predict the structure of convective storms, they may also provide value in predicting accumulations of snowfall. Predicting the accumulation of snowfall presents unique challenges to forecasters and microphysics schemes. In cases where surface temperatures are near freezing, accumulated depth often depends upon the snowfall rate and the ability to overcome an initial warm layer. Precipitation efficiency relates to the dominant ice crystal habit, as dendrites and plates have relatively large surface areas for the accretion of cloud water and ice, but are only favored within a narrow range of ice supersaturation and temperature. Forecast models and their parameterizations must accurately represent the characteristics of snow crystal populations, such as their size distribution, bulk density and fall speed. These properties relate to the vertical distribution of ice within simulated clouds, the temperature profile through latent heat release, and the eventual precipitation rate measured at the surface. The NASA Goddard, single-moment microphysics scheme is available to the operational forecast community as an option within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The NASA Goddard scheme predicts the occurrence of up to six classes of water mass: vapor, cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow and either graupel or hail.

Magnetic pumping of particles in the outer Jovian magnetosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Borovsky, J. E.

1980-01-01

The mechanism of magnetic pumping consists of two processes, the adiabatic motion of charged particles in a time varying magnetic field and their pitch-angle diffusion. The result is a systematic increase in the energy of charged particles trapped in mirror (and particularly, magnetospheric) magnetic fields. A numerical model of the mechanism is constructed, compared with analytic theory where possible, and, through elementary exercises, is used to predict the consequences of the process for cases that are not tractable by analytical means. For energy dependent pitch angle diffusion rates, characteristic 'two temperature' distributions are produced. Application of the model to the outer Jovian magnetosphere shows that beyond 20 Jupiter radii in the outer magnetosphere, particles may be magnetically pumped to energies of the order of 1 - 2 MeV. Two temperature distribution functions with "break points" at 1 - 4 KeV for electrons and 8 - 35 KeV for ions are predicted.

Axisymmetric Eigenmodes of Spheroidal Pure Electron Plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawai, Yosuke; Saitoh, Haruhiko; Yoshida, Zensho; Kiwamoto, Yasuhito

2010-11-01

The axisymmetric electrostatic eigenmodes of spheroidal pure electron plasmas have been studied experimentally. It is confirmed that the observed spheroidal plasma attains a theoretically expected equilibrium density distribution, with the exception of a low-density halo distribution surrounding the plasma. When the eigenmode frequency observed for the plasma is compared with the frequency predicted by the dispersion relation derived under ideal conditions wherein the temperature is zero and the boundary is located at an infinite distance from the plasma, it is observed that the absolute value of the observed frequency is systematically higher than the theoretical prediction. Experimental examinations and numerical calculations indicate that the upward shift of the eigenmode frequency cannot be accounted for solely by the finite temperature effect, but is significantly affected by image charges induced on the conducting boundary and the resulting distortion of the density profile from the theoretical expectation.

Heat and momentum transfer model studies applicable to once-through, forced convection potassium boiling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sabin, C. M.; Poppendiek, H. F.

1971-01-01

A number of heat transfer and fluid flow mechanisms that control once-through, forced convection potassium boiling are studied analytically. The topics discussed are: (1) flow through tubes containing helical wire inserts, (2) motion of droplets entrained in vapor flow, (3) liquid phase distribution in boilers, (4) temperature distributions in boiler tube walls, (5) mechanisms of heat transfer regime change, and (6) heat transfer in boiler tubes. Whenever possible, comparisons of predicted and actual performances are made. The model work presented aids in the prediction of operating characteristics of actual boilers.

A simple 2-d thermal model for GMA welds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matteson, M.A.; Franke, G.L.; Vassilaros, M.G.

1996-12-31

The Rosenthal model of heat distribution from a moving source has been used in many applications to predict the temperature distribution during welding. The equation has performed well in its original form or as modified. The expression has a significant limitation for application to gas metal arc welds (GMAW) that have a papilla extending from the root of the weld bead. The shape of the fusion line between the papilla and the plate surface has a concave shape rather than the expected convex shape. However, at some distance from the fusion line the heat affected zone (HAZ) made visible bymore » etching has the expected convex shape predicted by the Rosenthal expression. This anomaly creates a limitation to the use of the Rosenthal expression for predicting GMAW bead shapes or HAZ temperature histories. Current research at the Naval Surface Warfare Center--Carderock Division (NSWC--CD) to develop a computer based model to predict the microstructure of multi-pass GMAW requires a simple expression to predict the fusion line and temperature history of the HAZ for each weld pass. The solution employed for the NSWC--CD research is a modified Rosenthal expression that has a dual heat source. One heat source is a disk source above the plate surface supplying the majority of the heat. The second heat source is smaller and below the surface of the plate. This second heat source helps simulate the penetration power of many GMAW welds that produces the papilla. The assumptions, strengths and limitations of the model are presented along with some applications.« less

Predicting the effect of climate change on African trypanosomiasis: integrating epidemiology with parasite and vector biology

PubMed Central

Moore, Sean; Shrestha, Sourya; Tomlinson, Kyle W.; Vuong, Holly

2012-01-01

Climate warming over the next century is expected to have a large impact on the interactions between pathogens and their animal and human hosts. Vector-borne diseases are particularly sensitive to warming because temperature changes can alter vector development rates, shift their geographical distribution and alter transmission dynamics. For this reason, African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness), a vector-borne disease of humans and animals, was recently identified as one of the 12 infectious diseases likely to spread owing to climate change. We combine a variety of direct effects of temperature on vector ecology, vector biology and vector–parasite interactions via a disease transmission model and extrapolate the potential compounding effects of projected warming on the epidemiology of African trypanosomiasis. The model predicts that epidemics can occur when mean temperatures are between 20.7°C and 26.1°C. Our model does not predict a large-range expansion, but rather a large shift of up to 60 per cent in the geographical extent of the range. The model also predicts that 46–77 million additional people may be at risk of exposure by 2090. Future research could expand our analysis to include other environmental factors that influence tsetse populations and disease transmission such as humidity, as well as changes to human, livestock and wildlife distributions. The modelling approach presented here provides a framework for using the climate-sensitive aspects of vector and pathogen biology to predict changes in disease prevalence and risk owing to climate change. PMID:22072451

Predicting the potential distributions of the invasive cycad scale Aulacaspis yasumatsui (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) under different climate change scenarios and the implications for management.

PubMed

Wei, Jiufeng; Zhao, Qing; Zhao, Wanqing; Zhang, Hufang

2018-01-01

Cycads are an ancient group of gymnosperms that are popular as landscaping plants, though nearly all of them are threatened or endangered in the wild. The cycad aulacaspis scale (CAS), Aulacaspis yasumatsui Takagi (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), has become one of the most serious pests of cycads in recent years; however, the potential distribution range and the management approach for this pest are unclear. A potential risk map of cycad aulacaspis scale was created based on occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors in this study. Furthermore, the future potential distributions of CAS were projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (GFDL-CM3, HADGEM2-AO and MIROC5) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The model suggested high environmental suitability for the continents of Asia and North America, where the species has already been recorded. The potential distribution expansions or reductions were also predicted under different climate change conditions. Temperature of Driest Quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor, explaining 48.1% of the distribution of the species. The results also suggested that highly suitable habitat for CAS would exist in the study area if the mean temperature of 15-20 °C in the driest quarter and a mean temperature of 25-28 °C the wettest quarter. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policy to manage and control this invasive pest.

Heat transfer models for predicting Salmonella enteritidis in shell eggs through supply chain distribution.

PubMed

Almonacid, S; Simpson, R; Teixeira, A

2007-11-01

Egg and egg preparations are important vehicles for Salmonella enteritidis infections. The influence of time-temperature becomes important when the presence of this organism is found in commercial shell eggs. A computer-aided mathematical model was validated to estimate surface and interior temperature of shell eggs under variable ambient and refrigerated storage temperature. A risk assessment of S. enteritidis based on the use of this model, coupled with S. enteritidis kinetics, has already been reported in a companion paper published earlier in JFS. The model considered the actual geometry and composition of shell eggs and was solved by numerical techniques (finite differences and finite elements). Parameters of interest such as local (h) and global (U) heat transfer coefficient, thermal conductivity, and apparent volumetric specific heat were estimated by an inverse procedure from experimental temperature measurement. In order to assess the error in predicting microbial population growth, theoretical and experimental temperatures were applied to a S. enteritidis growth model taken from the literature. Errors between values of microbial population growth calculated from model predicted compared with experimentally measured temperatures were satisfactorily low: 1.1% and 0.8% for the finite difference and finite element model, respectively.

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, B. C.

1991-01-01

A new diagnostic tool is developed for examining relationships between the synoptic scale circulation and regional temperature distributions in GCMs. The 4 x 5 deg GISS GCM is shown to produce accurate simulations of the variance in the synoptic scale sea level pressure distribution over the U.S. An analysis of the observational data set from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) also shows a strong relationship between the synoptic circulation and grid point temperatures. This relationship is demonstrated by deriving transfer functions between a time-series of circulation parameters and temperatures at individual grid points. The circulation parameters are derived using rotated principal components analysis, and the temperature transfer functions are based on multivariate polynomial regression models. The application of these transfer functions to the GCM circulation indicates that there is considerable spatial bias present in the GCM temperature distributions. The transfer functions are also used to indicate the possible changes in U.S. regional temperatures that could result from differences in synoptic scale circulation between a 1XCO2 and a 2xCO2 climate, using a doubled CO2 version of the same GISS GCM.

Nanoscale Dynamics of Joule heating and Bubble Nucleation in a Solid-State Nanopore

PubMed Central

Levine, Edlyn V.; Burns, Michael M.; Golovchenko, Jene A.

2016-01-01

We present a mathematical model for Joule heating of an electrolytic solution in a nanopore. The model couples the electrical and thermal dynamics responsible for rapid and extreme superheating of the electrolyte within the nanopore. The model is implemented numerically with a finite element calculation, yielding a time and spatially resolved temperature distribution in the nanopore region. Temperatures near the thermodynamic limit of superheat are predicted to be attained just before the explosive nucleation of a vapor bubble is observed experimentally. Knowledge of this temperature distribution enables the evaluation of related phenomena including bubble nucleation kinetics, relaxation oscillation, and bubble dynamics. PACS numbers 47.55.dp, 47.55.db, 85.35.-p, 05.70Fh PMID:26871171

Acceleration of auroral electrons in parallel electric fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufmann, R. L.; Walker, D. N.; Arnoldy, R. L.

1976-01-01

Rocket observations of auroral electrons are compared with the predictions of a number of theoretical acceleration mechanisms that involve an electric field parallel to the earth's magnetic field. The theoretical models are discussed in terms of required plasma sources, the location of the acceleration region, and properties of necessary wave-particle scattering mechanisms. We have been unable to find any steady state scatter-free electric field configuration that predicts electron flux distributions in agreement with the observations. The addition of a fluctuating electric field or wave-particle scattering several thousand kilometers above the rocket can modify the theoretical flux distributions so that they agree with measurements. The presence of very narrow energy peaks in the flux contours implies a characteristic temperature of several tens of electron volts or less for the source of field-aligned auroral electrons and a temperature of several hundred electron volts or less for the relatively isotropic 'monoenergetic' auroral electrons. The temperature of the field-aligned electrons is more representative of the magnetosheath or possibly the ionosphere as a source region than of the plasma sheet.

Computational modeling of the pressurization process in a NASP vehicle propellant tank experimental simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sasmal, G. P.; Hochstein, J. I.; Wendl, M. C.; Hardy, T. L.

1991-01-01

A multidimensional computational model of the pressurization process in a slush hydrogen propellant storage tank was developed and its accuracy evaluated by comparison to experimental data measured for a 5 ft diameter spherical tank. The fluid mechanic, thermodynamic, and heat transfer processes within the ullage are represented by a finite-volume model. The model was shown to be in reasonable agreement with the experiment data. A parameter study was undertaken to examine the dependence of the pressurization process on initial ullage temperature distribution and pressurant mass flow rate. It is shown that for a given heat flux rate at the ullage boundary, the pressurization process is nearly independent of initial temperature distribution. Significant differences were identified between the ullage temperature and velocity fields predicted for pressurization of slush and those predicted for pressurization of liquid hydrogen. A simplified model of the pressurization process was constructed in search of a dimensionless characterization of the pressurization process. It is shown that the relationship derived from this simplified model collapses all of the pressure history data generated during this study into a single curve.

Warming rays in cluster cool cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colafrancesco, S.; Marchegiani, P.

2008-06-01

Context: Cosmic rays are confined in the atmospheres of galaxy clusters and, therefore, they can play a crucial role in the heating of their cool cores. Aims: We discuss here the thermal and non-thermal features of a model of cosmic ray heating of cluster cores that can provide a solution to the cooling-flow problems. To this aim, we generalize a model originally proposed by Colafrancesco, Dar & DeRujula (2004) and we show that our model predicts specific correlations between the thermal and non-thermal properties of galaxy clusters and enables various observational tests. Methods: The model reproduces the observed temperature distribution in clusters by using an energy balance condition in which the X-ray energy emitted by clusters is supplied, in a quasi-steady state, by the hadronic cosmic rays, which act as “warming rays” (WRs). The temperature profile of the intracluster (IC) gas is strictly correlated with the pressure distribution of the WRs and, consequently, with the non-thermal emission (radio, hard X-ray and gamma-ray) induced by the interaction of the WRs with the IC gas and the IC magnetic field. Results: The temperature distribution of the IC gas in both cool-core and non cool-core clusters is successfully predicted from the measured IC plasma density distribution. Under this contraint, the WR model is also able to reproduce the thermal and non-thermal pressure distribution in clusters, as well as their radial entropy distribution, as shown by the analysis of three clusters studied in detail: Perseus, A2199 and Hydra. The WR model provides other observable features of galaxy clusters: a correlation of the pressure ratio (WRs to thermal IC gas) with the inner cluster temperature (P_WR/P_th) ˜ (kT_inner)-2/3, a correlation of the gamma-ray luminosity with the inner cluster temperature Lγ ˜ (kT_inner)4/3, a substantial number of cool-core clusters observable with the GLAST-LAT experiment, a surface brightness of radio halos in cool-core clusters that recovers the observed one, a hard X-ray ICS emission from cool-core clusters that is systematically lower than the observed limits and yet observable with the next generation high-sensitivity and spatial resolution HXR experiments like Simbol-X. Conclusions: The specific theoretical properties and the multi-frequency distribution of the e.m. signals predicted in the WR model render it quite different from the other models so far proposed for the heating of clusters' cool-cores. Such differences make it possible to prove or disprove our model as an explanation for the cooling-flow problems on the basis of multi-frequency observations of galaxy clusters.

Temperature Inversions and Permafrost Distribution in a Mountain Valley: Preliminary Results From Wolf Creek, Yukon Territory, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewkowicz, A. G.; Smith, K. M.

2004-12-01

The BTS (Basal Temperature of Snow) method to predict permafrost probability in mountain basins uses elevation as an easily available and spatially distributed independent variable. The elevation coefficient in the BTS regression model is, in effect, a substitute for ground temperature lapse rates. Previous work in Wolf Creek (60° 8'N 135° W), a mountain basin near Whitehorse, has shown that the model breaks down in a mid-elevation valley (1250 m asl) where actual permafrost probability is roughly twice that predicted by the model (60% vs. 20-30%). The existence of a double tree-line at the site suggested that air temperature inversions might be the cause of this inaccuracy (Lewkowicz and Ednie, 2004). This paper reports on a first year (08/2003-08/2004) of hourly air and ground temperature data collected along an altitudinal transect within the valley in upper Wolf Creek. Measurements were made at sites located 4, 8, 22, 82 and 162 m above the valley floor. Air temperature inversions between the lowest and highest measurement points occurred 42% of the time and in all months, but were most frequent and intense in winter (>60% of December and January) and least frequent in September (<25% of time). They generally developed after sunset and reached a maximum amplitude before sunrise. Only 11 inversions that lasted through more than one day occurred during the year, and only from October to February. The longest continuous duration was 145 h while the greatest inversion magnitude measured over the 160 m transect was 19° C. Ground surface temperatures are more difficult to interpret because of differences in soils and vegetation cover along the transect and the effects of seasonal snow cover. In many cases, however, air temperature inversions are not duplicated in the ground temperature record. Nevertheless, the annual altitudinal ground temperature gradient is much lower than would be expected from a standard atmospheric lapse rate, suggesting that the inversions do have an important impact on permafrost distribution at this site. More generally, therefore, it appears probable that any reduction in inversion frequency resulting from a more vigorous atmospheric circulation in the context of future climate change, would have a significant effect on permafrost distribution in mountain basins.

Estimation Methods for Non-Homogeneous Regression - Minimum CRPS vs Maximum Likelihood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebetsberger, Manuel; Messner, Jakob W.; Mayr, Georg J.; Zeileis, Achim

2017-04-01

Non-homogeneous regression models are widely used to statistically post-process numerical weather prediction models. Such regression models correct for errors in mean and variance and are capable to forecast a full probability distribution. In order to estimate the corresponding regression coefficients, CRPS minimization is performed in many meteorological post-processing studies since the last decade. In contrast to maximum likelihood estimation, CRPS minimization is claimed to yield more calibrated forecasts. Theoretically, both scoring rules used as an optimization score should be able to locate a similar and unknown optimum. Discrepancies might result from a wrong distributional assumption of the observed quantity. To address this theoretical concept, this study compares maximum likelihood and minimum CRPS estimation for different distributional assumptions. First, a synthetic case study shows that, for an appropriate distributional assumption, both estimation methods yield to similar regression coefficients. The log-likelihood estimator is slightly more efficient. A real world case study for surface temperature forecasts at different sites in Europe confirms these results but shows that surface temperature does not always follow the classical assumption of a Gaussian distribution. KEYWORDS: ensemble post-processing, maximum likelihood estimation, CRPS minimization, probabilistic temperature forecasting, distributional regression models

Climate controls on C3 vs. C4 productivity in North American grasslands from carbon isotope composition of soil organic matter

USGS Publications Warehouse

von Fischer, J.C.; Tieszen, L.L.; Schimel, D.S.

2008-01-01

We analyzed the ??13 C of soil organic matter (SOM) and fine roots from 55 native grassland sites widely distributed across the US and Canadian Great Plains to examine the relative production of C3 vs. C4 plants (hereafter %C4) at the continental scale. Our climate vs. %C4 results agreed well with North American field studies on %C4, but showed bias with respect to %C4 from a US vegetation database (statsgo) and weak agreement with a physiologically based prediction that depends on crossover temperature. Although monthly average temperatures have been used in many studies to predict %C4, our analysis shows that high temperatures are better predictors of %C4. In particular, we found that July climate (average of daily high temperature and month's total rainfall) predicted %C4 better than other months, seasons or annual averages, suggesting that the outcome of competition between C3 and C4 plants in North American grasslands was particularly sensitive to climate during this narrow window of time. Root ??13 C increased about 1??? between the A and B horizon, suggesting that C 4 roots become relatively more common than C3 roots with depth. These differences in depth distribution likely contribute to the isotopic enrichment with depth in SOM where both C3 and C4 grasses are present. ?? 2008 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Simulation of Crack Propagation in Engine Rotating Components under Variable Amplitude Loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonacuse, P. J.; Ghosn, L. J.; Telesman, J.; Calomino, A. M.; Kantzos, P.

1998-01-01

The crack propagation life of tested specimens has been repeatedly shown to strongly depend on the loading history. Overloads and extended stress holds at temperature can either retard or accelerate the crack growth rate. Therefore, to accurately predict the crack propagation life of an actual component, it is essential to approximate the true loading history. In military rotorcraft engine applications, the loading profile (stress amplitudes, temperature, and number of excursions) can vary significantly depending on the type of mission flown. To accurately assess the durability of a fleet of engines, the crack propagation life distribution of a specific component should account for the variability in the missions performed (proportion of missions flown and sequence). In this report, analytical and experimental studies are described that calibrate/validate the crack propagation prediction capability ]or a disk alloy under variable amplitude loading. A crack closure based model was adopted to analytically predict the load interaction effects. Furthermore, a methodology has been developed to realistically simulate the actual mission mix loading on a fleet of engines over their lifetime. A sequence of missions is randomly selected and the number of repeats of each mission in the sequence is determined assuming a Poisson distributed random variable with a given mean occurrence rate. Multiple realizations of random mission histories are generated in this manner and are used to produce stress, temperature, and time points for fracture mechanics calculations. The result is a cumulative distribution of crack propagation lives for a given, life limiting, component location. This information can be used to determine a safe retirement life or inspection interval for the given location.

Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

2010-01-01

Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

Disease and thermal acclimation in a more variable and unpredictable climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raffel, Thomas R.; Romansic, John M.; Halstead, Neal T.; McMahon, Taegan A.; Venesky, Matthew D.; Rohr, Jason R.

2013-02-01

Global climate change is shifting the distribution of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. As well as increasing mean temperatures, climate change is expected to increase climate variability, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments conducted in 80 independent incubators, and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America, support the framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was opposite to the pattern of growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. If similar acclimation responses influence other host-parasite systems, as seems likely, then present models, which generally ignore small-scale temporal variability in climate, might provide poor predictions for climate effects on disease.

Temperature drives abundance fluctuations, but spatial dynamics is constrained by landscape configuration: Implications for climate-driven range shift in a butterfly.

PubMed

Fourcade, Yoan; Ranius, Thomas; Öckinger, Erik

2017-10-01

Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins. Here, using a butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future. Second, we used a 13-year monitoring dataset including the majority of all habitat patches at the species northern range margin to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on abundance and colonization-extinction dynamics. The fluctuation in abundance between years was almost entirely determined by the variation in temperature during the species larval development. In contrast, colonization and extinction dynamics were better explained by patch area, between-patch connectivity and host plant density. This suggests that the response of the species to future climate change may be limited by future land use and how its host plants respond to climate change. It is, thus, probable that dispersal limitation will prevent P. armoricanus from reaching its potential future distribution. We argue that models of range dynamics should consider the factors influencing metapopulation dynamics, especially at the range edges, and not only broad-scale climate. It includes factors acting at the scale of habitat patches such as habitat quality and microclimate and landscape-scale factors such as the spatial configuration of potentially suitable patches. Knowledge of population dynamics under various environmental conditions, and the incorporation of realistic scenarios of future land use, appears essential to provide predictions useful for actions mitigating the negative effects of climate change. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Computational modeling of GTA (gas tungsten arc) welding with emphasis on surface tension effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zacharia, T.; David, S.A.

1990-01-01

A computational study of the convective heat transfer in the weld pool during gas tungsten arch (GTA) welding of Type 304 stainless steel is presented. The solution of the transport equations is based on a control volume approach which utilized directly, the integral form of the governing equations. The computational model considers buoyancy and electromagnetic and surface tension forces in the solution of convective heat transfer in the weld pool. In addition, the model treats the weld pool surface as a deformable free surface. The computational model includes weld metal vaporization and temperature dependent thermophysical properties. The results indicate thatmore » consideration of weld pool vaporization effects and temperature dependent thermophysical properties significantly influence the weld model predictions. Theoretical predictions of the weld pool surface temperature distributions and the cross-sectional weld pool size and shape wee compared with corresponding experimental measurements. Comparison of the theoretically predicted and the experimentally obtained surface temperature profiles indicated agreement with {plus minus} 8%. The predicted weld cross-section profiles were found to agree very well with actual weld cross-sections for the best theoretical models. 26 refs., 8 figs.« less

Relevant microclimate for determining the development rate of malaria mosquitoes and possible implications of climate change.

PubMed

Paaijmans, Krijn P; Imbahale, Susan S; Thomas, Matthew B; Takken, Willem

2010-07-09

The relationship between mosquito development and temperature is one of the keys to understanding the current and future dynamics and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Many process-based models use mean air temperature to estimate larval development times, and hence adult vector densities and/or malaria risk. Water temperatures in three different-sized water pools, as well as the adjacent air temperature in lowland and highland sites in western Kenya were monitored. Both air and water temperatures were fed into a widely-applied temperature-dependent development model for Anopheles gambiae immatures, and subsequently their impact on predicted vector abundance was assessed. Mean water temperature in typical mosquito breeding sites was 4-6 degrees C higher than the mean temperature of the adjacent air, resulting in larval development rates, and hence population growth rates, that are much higher than predicted based on air temperature. On the other hand, due to the non-linearities in the relationship between temperature and larval development rate, together with a marginal buffering in the increase in water temperature compared with air temperature, the relative increases in larval development rates predicted due to climate change are substantially less. Existing models will tend to underestimate mosquito population growth under current conditions, and may overestimate relative increases in population growth under future climate change. These results highlight the need for better integration of biological and environmental information at the scale relevant to mosquito biology.

Development of thermal models of footwear using finite element analysis.

PubMed

Covill, D; Guan, Z W; Bailey, M; Raval, H

2011-03-01

Thermal comfort is increasingly becoming a crucial factor to be considered in footwear design. The climate inside a shoe is controlled by thermal and moisture conditions and is crucial to attain comfort. Research undertaken has shown that thermal conditions play a dominant role in shoe climate. Development of thermal models that are capable of predicting in-shoe temperature distributions is an effective way forward to undertake extensive parametric studies to assist optimized design. In this paper, two-dimensional and three-dimensional thermal models of in-shoe climate were developed using finite element analysis through commercial code Abaqus. The thermal material properties of the upper shoe, sole, and air were considered. Dry heat flux from the foot was calculated on the basis of typical blood flow in the arteries on the foot. Using the thermal models developed, in-shoe temperatures were predicted to cover various locations for controlled ambient temperatures of 15, 25, and 35 degrees C respectively. The predicted temperatures were compared with multipoint measured temperatures through microsensor technology. Reasonably good correlation was obtained, with averaged errors of 6, 2, and 1.5 per cent, based on the averaged in-shoe temperature for the above three ambient temperatures. The models can be further used to help design shoes with optimized thermal comfort.

A dynamic model for plant growth: validation study under changing temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wann, M.; Raper, C. D. Jr; Raper CD, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1984-01-01

A dynamic simulation model to describe vegetative growth of plants, for which some functions and parameter values have been estimated previously by optimization search techniques and numerical experimentation based on data from constant temperature experiments, is validated under conditions of changing temperatures. To test the predictive capacity of the model, dry matter accumulation in the leaves, stems, and roots of tobacco plants (Nicotiana tabacum L.) was measured at 2- or 3-day intervals during a 5-week period when temperatures in controlled-environment rooms were programmed for changes at weekly and daily intervals and in ascending or descending sequences within a range of 14 to 34 degrees C. Simulations of dry matter accumulation and distribution were carried out using the programmed changes for experimental temperatures and compared with the measured values. The agreement between measured and predicted values was close and indicates that the temperature-dependent functional forms derived from constant-temperature experiments are adequate for modelling plant growth responses to conditions of changing temperatures with switching intervals as short as 1 day.

Stream temperature response to three riparian vegetation scenarios by use of a distributed temperature validated model.

PubMed

Roth, T R; Westhoff, M C; Huwald, H; Huff, J A; Rubin, J F; Barrenetxea, G; Vetterli, M; Parriaux, A; Selkeer, J S; Parlange, M B

2010-03-15

Elevated in-stream temperature has led to a surge in the occurrence of parasitic intrusion proliferative kidney disease and has resulted in fish kills throughout Switzerland's waterways. Data from distributed temperature sensing (DTS) in-stream measurements for three cloud-free days in August 2007 over a 1260 m stretch of the Boiron de Merges River in southwest Switzerland were used to calibrate and validate a physically based one-dimensional stream temperature model. Stream temperature response to three distinct riparian conditions were then modeled: open, in-stream reeds, and forest cover. Simulation predicted a mean peak stream temperature increase of 0.7 °C if current vegetation was removed, an increase of 0.1 °C if dense reeds covered the entire stream reach, and a decrease of 1.2 °C if a mature riparian forest covered the entire reach. Understanding that full vegetation canopy cover is the optimal riparian management option for limiting stream temperature, in-stream reeds, which require no riparian set-aside and grow very quickly, appear to provide substantial thermal control, potentially useful for land-use management.

Thermal analysis of the intact mandibular premolar: a finite element analysis.

PubMed

Oskui, I Z; Ashtiani, M N; Hashemi, A; Jafarzadeh, H

2013-09-01

To obtain temperature distribution data through human teeth focusing on the pulp-dentine junction (PDJ). A three-dimensional tooth model was reconstructed using computer-aided design software from computed tomographic images. Subsequently, temperature distribution was numerically determined through the tooth for three different heat loads. Loading type I was equivalent to a 60° C mouth temperature for 1 s. Loading type II started with a 60° C mouth temperature, decreasing linearly to 37° C over 10 s. Loading type III repeated the pattern of type II in three consecutive cycles, with a 5 s resting time between cycles. The maximum temperatures of the pulp were 37.9° C, 39.0° C and 41.2° C for loading types I, II, and III, respectively. The largest temperature rise occurred with the cyclic loading, that is, type III. For the heat loads considered, the predicted peak temperatures at the PDJ were less than the reported temperature thresholds of irreversible pulpal damage. © 2013 International Endodontic Journal. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The temperature dependence of inelastic light scattering from small particles for use in combustion diagnostic instrumentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cloud, Stanley D.

1987-01-01

A computer calculation of the expected angular distribution of coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS) from micrometer size polystyrene spheres based on a Mie-type model, and a pilot experiment to test the feasibility of measuring CARS angular distributions from micrometer size polystyrene spheres by simply suspending them in water are discussed. The computer calculations predict a very interesting structure in the angular distributions that depends strongly on the size and relative refractive index of the spheres.

Seasonal Prediction of Regional Surface Air Temperature and First-flowering Date in South Korea using Dynamical Downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, J. B.; Hur, J.

2015-12-01

The seasonal prediction of both the surface air temperature and the first-flowering date (FFD) over South Korea are produced using dynamical downscaling (Hur and Ahn, 2015). Dynamical downscaling is performed using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) v3.0 with the lateral forcing from hourly outputs of Pusan National University (PNU) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) v1.1. Gridded surface air temperature data with high spatial (3km) and temporal (daily) resolution are obtained using the physically-based dynamical models. To reduce systematic bias, simple statistical correction method is then applied to the model output. The FFDs of cherry, peach and pear in South Korea are predicted for the decade of 1999-2008 by applying the corrected daily temperature predictions to the phenological thermal-time model. The WRF v3.0 results reflect the detailed topographical effect, despite having cold and warm biases for warm and cold seasons, respectively. After applying the correction, the mean temperature for early spring (February to April) well represents the general pattern of observation, while preserving the advantages of dynamical downscaling. The FFD predictabilities for the three species of trees are evaluated in terms of qualitative, quantitative and categorical estimations. Although FFDs derived from the corrected WRF results well predict the spatial distribution and the variation of observation, the prediction performance has no statistical significance or appropriate predictability. The approach used in the study may be helpful in obtaining detailed and useful information about FFD and regional temperature by accounting for physically-based atmospheric dynamics, although the seasonal predictability of flowering phenology is not high enough. Acknowledgements This work was carried out with the support of the Rural Development Administration Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development under Grant Project No. PJ009953 and Project No. PJ009353, Republic of Korea. Reference Hur, J., J.-B. Ahn, 2015. Seasonal Prediction of Regional Surface Air Temperature and First-flowering Date over South Korea, Int. J. Climatol., DOI: 10.1002/joc.4323.

Factors affecting summer distributions of Bering Sea forage fish species: Assessing competing hypotheses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker-Stetter, Sandra; Urmy, Samuel; Horne, John; Eisner, Lisa; Farley, Edward

2016-12-01

Hypotheses on the factors affecting forage fish species distributions are often proposed but rarely evaluated using a comprehensive suite of indices. Using 24 predictor indices, we compared competing hypotheses and calculated average models for the distributions of capelin, age-0 Pacific cod, and age-0 pollock in the eastern Bering Sea from 2006 to 2010. Distribution was described using a two stage modeling approach: probability of occurrence ("presence") and density when fish were present. Both local (varying by location and year) and annual (uniform in space but varying by year) indices were evaluated, the latter accounting for the possibility that distributions were random but that overall presence or densities changed with annual conditions. One regional index, distance to the location of preflexion larvae earlier in the year, was evaluated for age-0 pollock. Capelin distributions were best predicted by local indices such as bottom depth, temperature, and salinity. Annual climate (May sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice extent anomaly) and wind (June wind speed cubed) indices were often important for age-0 Pacific cod in addition to local indices (temperature and depth). Surface, midwater, and water column age-0 pollock distributions were best described by a combination of local (depth, temperature, salinity, zooplankton) and annual (May SST, sea ice anomaly, June wind speed cubed) indices. Our results corroborated some of those in previous distribution studies, but suggested that presence and density may also be influenced by other factors. Even though there were common environmental factors that influenced all species' distributions, it is not possible to generalize conditions for forage fish as a group.

Multi-scale predictions of coniferous forest mortality in the northern hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDowell, N. G.

2015-12-01

Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our incomplete understanding of the fundamental physiological thresholds of vegetation mortality during drought limits our ability to accurately simulate future vegetation distributions and associated climate feedbacks. Here we integrate experimental evidence with models to show potential widespread loss of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET; ~ conifers) within the Southwest USA by 2100; with rising temperature being the primary cause of mortality. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ypd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, stomatal and hydraulic conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. Empirical and mechanistic models accurately predicted NET Ypd, and 91% of predictions (10/11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the 21st century due to temperature rise. Completely independent global models predicted >50% loss of northern hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the findings for Southwest USA. The global models disagreed with the ecosystem process models in regards to future mortality in Southwest USA, however, highlighting the potential underestimates of future NET mortality as simulated by the global models and signifying the importance of improving regional predictions. Taken together, these results from the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict global-scale conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

Do Aphids Alter Leaf Surface Temperature Patterns During Early Infestation?

PubMed Central

Cahon, Thomas; Caillon, Robin

2018-01-01

Arthropods at the surface of plants live in particular microclimatic conditions that can differ from atmospheric conditions. The temperature of plant leaves can deviate from air temperature, and leaf temperature influences the eco-physiology of small insects. The activity of insects feeding on leaf tissues, may, however, induce changes in leaf surface temperatures, but this effect was only rarely demonstrated. Using thermography analysis of leaf surfaces under controlled environmental conditions, we quantified the impact of presence of apple green aphids on the temperature distribution of apple leaves during early infestation. Aphids induced a slight change in leaf surface temperature patterns after only three days of infestation, mostly due to the effect of aphids on the maximal temperature that can be found at the leaf surface. Aphids may induce stomatal closure, leading to a lower transpiration rate. This effect was local since aphids modified the configuration of the temperature distribution over leaf surfaces. Aphids were positioned at temperatures near the maximal leaf surface temperatures, thus potentially experiencing the thermal changes. The feedback effect of feeding activity by insects on their host plant can be important and should be quantified to better predict the response of phytophagous insects to environmental changes. PMID:29538342

The Short-Term Effect of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Wuhan, China: A Time-Series Study Using a Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yunquan; Li, Cunlu; Feng, Renjie; Zhu, Yaohui; Wu, Kai; Tan, Xiaodong; Ma, Lu

2016-01-01

Less evidence concerning the association between ambient temperature and mortality is available in developing countries/regions, especially inland areas of China, and few previous studies have compared the predictive ability of different temperature indictors (minimum, mean, and maximum temperature) on mortality. We assessed the effects of temperature on daily mortality from 2003 to 2010 in Jiang’an District of Wuhan, the largest city in central China. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear models combined with both non-threshold and double-threshold distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to examine the associations between different temperature indictors and cause-specific mortality. We found a U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality in Wuhan. Double-threshold DLNM with mean temperature performed best in predicting temperature-mortality relationship. Cold effect was delayed, whereas hot effect was acute, both of which lasted for several days. For cold effects over lag 0–21 days, a 1 °C decrease in mean temperature below the cold thresholds was associated with a 2.39% (95% CI: 1.71, 3.08) increase in non-accidental mortality, 3.65% (95% CI: 2.62, 4.69) increase in cardiovascular mortality, 3.87% (95% CI: 1.57, 6.22) increase in respiratory mortality, 3.13% (95% CI: 1.88, 4.38) increase in stroke mortality, and 21.57% (95% CI: 12.59, 31.26) increase in ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality. For hot effects over lag 0–7 days, a 1 °C increase in mean temperature above the hot thresholds was associated with a 25.18% (95% CI: 18.74, 31.96) increase in non-accidental mortality, 34.10% (95% CI: 25.63, 43.16) increase in cardiovascular mortality, 24.27% (95% CI: 7.55, 43.59) increase in respiratory mortality, 59.1% (95% CI: 41.81, 78.5) increase in stroke mortality, and 17.00% (95% CI: 7.91, 26.87) increase in IHD mortality. This study suggested that both low and high temperature were associated with increased mortality in Wuhan, and that mean temperature had better predictive ability than minimum and maximum temperature in the association between temperature and mortality. PMID:27438847

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, A.; Moore, J.C.; Cui, Xingquan; Ji, D.; Li, Q.; Zhang, N.; Wang, C.; Zhang, S.; Lawrence, D.M.; McGuire, A.D.; Zhang, W.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; Saito, K.; MacDougall, A.; Burke, E.; Decharme, B.

2016-01-01

 We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135  ×  104 km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101  × 104 km2). However the uncertainty (1 to 128  ×  104 km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0 °C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Rinke, A.; Moore, J. C.; Cui, X.; Ji, D.; Li, Q.; Zhang, N.; Wang, C.; Zhang, S.; Lawrence, D. M.; McGuire, A. D.; Zhang, W.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; Saito, K.; MacDougall, A.; Burke, E.; Decharme, B.

2016-02-01

We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135 × 104 km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 × 104 km2). However the uncertainty (1 to 128 × 104 km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0 °C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.

Predicting the potential distribution of the amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in East and Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Moriguchi, Sachiko; Tominaga, Atsushi; Irwin, Kelly J; Freake, Michael J; Suzuki, Kazutaka; Goka, Koichi

2015-04-08

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is the pathogen responsible for chytridiomycosis, a disease that is associated with a worldwide amphibian population decline. In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of Bd in East and Southeast Asia based on limited occurrence data. Our goal was to design an effective survey area where efforts to detect the pathogen can be focused. We generated ecological niche models using the maximum-entropy approach, with alleviation of multicollinearity and spatial autocorrelation. We applied eigenvector-based spatial filters as independent variables, in addition to environmental variables, to resolve spatial autocorrelation, and compared the model's accuracy and the degree of spatial autocorrelation with those of a model estimated using only environmental variables. We were able to identify areas of high suitability for Bd with accuracy. Among the environmental variables, factors related to temperature and precipitation were more effective in predicting the potential distribution of Bd than factors related to land use and cover type. Our study successfully predicted the potential distribution of Bd in East and Southeast Asia. This information should now be used to prioritize survey areas and generate a surveillance program to detect the pathogen.

Effect of Particle Size Distribution on Wall Heat Flux in Pulverized-Coal Furnaces and Boilers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Jun

A mathematical model of combustion and heat transfer within a cylindrical enclosure firing pulverized coal has been developed and tested against two sets of measured data (one is 1993 WSU/DECO Pilot test data, the other one is the International Flame Research Foundation 1964 Test (Beer, 1964)) and one independent code FURN3D from the Argonne National Laboratory (Ahluwalia and IM, 1992). The model called PILC assumes that the system is a sequence of many well-stirred reactors. A char burnout model combining diffusion to the particle surface, pore diffusion, and surface reaction is employed for predicting the char reaction, heat release, and evolution of char. The ash formation model included relates the ash particle size distribution to the particle size distribution of pulverized coal. The optical constants of char and ash particles are calculated from dispersion relations derived from reflectivity, transmissivity and extinction measurements. The Mie theory is applied to determine the extinction and scattering coefficients. The radiation heat transfer is modeled using the virtual zone method, which leads to a set of simultaneous nonlinear algebraic equations for the temperature field within the furnace and on its walls. This enables the heat fluxes to be evaluated. In comparisons with the experimental data and one independent code, the model is successful in predicting gas temperature, wall temperature, and wall radiative flux. When the coal with greater fineness is burnt, the particle size of pulverized coal has a consistent influence on combustion performance: the temperature peak was higher and nearer to burner, the radiation flux to combustor wall increased, and also the absorption and scattering coefficients of the combustion products increased. The effect of coal particle size distribution on absorption and scattering coefficients and wall heat flux is significant. But there is only a small effect on gas temperature and fuel fraction burned; it is speculated that this may be a characteristic special to the test combustor used.

The Joint Statistics of California Temperature and Precipitation as a Function of the Large-scale State of the Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

OBrien, J. P.; O'Brien, T. A.

2015-12-01

Single climatic extremes have a strong and disproportionate effect on society and the natural environment. However, the joint occurrence of two or more concurrent extremes has the potential to negatively impact these areas of life in ways far greater than any single event could. California, USA, home to nearly 40 million people and the largest agricultural producer in the United States, is currently experiencing an extreme drought, which has persisted for several years. While drought is commonly thought of in terms of only precipitation deficits, above average temperatures co-occurring with precipitation deficits greatly exacerbate drought conditions. The 2014 calendar year in California was characterized both by extremely low precipitation and extremely high temperatures, which has significantly deepened the already extreme drought conditions leading to severe water shortages and wildfires. While many studies have shown the statistics of 2014 temperature and precipitation anomalies as outliers, none have demonstrated a connection with large-scale, long-term climate trends, which would provide useful relationships for predicting the future trajectory of California climate and water resources. We focus on understanding non-stationarity in the joint distribution of California temperature and precipitation anomalies in terms of large-scale, low-frequency trends in climate such as global mean temperature rise and oscillatory indices such as ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation among others. We consider temperature and precipitation data from the seven distinct climate divisions in California and employ a novel, high-fidelity kernel density estimation method to directly infer the multivariate distribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies conditioned on the large-scale state of the climate. We show that the joint distributions and associated statistics of temperature and precipitation are non-stationary and vary regionally in California. Further, we show that recurrence intervals of extreme concurrent events vary as a function of time and of teleconnections. This research has implications for predicting and forecasting future temperature and precipitation anomalies, which is critically important for city, water, and agricultural planning in California.

Circumferential distortion modeling of the TF30-P-3 compression system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mazzawy, R. S.; Banks, G. A.

1977-01-01

Circumferential inlet pressure and temperature distortion testing of the TF30 P-3 turbofan engine was conducted. The compressor system at the test conditions run was modelled according to a multiple segment parallel compressor model. Aspects of engine operation and distortion configuration modelled include the effects of compressor bleeds, relative pressure-temperature distortion alignment and circumferential distortion extent. Model predictions for limiting distortion amplitudes and flow distributions within the compression system were compared with test results in order to evaluate predicted trends. Relatively good agreement was obtained. The model also identified the low pressure compressor as the stall-initiating component, which was in agreement with the data.

Simulation on friction taper plug welding of AA6063-20Gr metal matrix composite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hynes, N. Rajesh Jesudoss; Nithin, Abeyram M.

2016-05-01

Friction taper plug welding a variant of friction welding is useful in welding of similar and dissimilar materials. It could be used for joining of composites to metals in sophisticated aerospace applications. In the present work numerical simulation of friction taper plug welding process is carried out using finite element based software. Graphite reinforced AA6063 is modelled using the software ANSYS 15.0 and temperature distribution is predicted. Effect of friction time on temperature distribution is numerically investigated. When the friction time is increased to 30 seconds, the tapered part of plug gets detached and fills the hole in the AA6063 plate perfectly.

Climate change, humidity, and mortality in the United States

PubMed Central

Barreca, Alan I.

2014-01-01

This paper estimates the effects of humidity and temperature on mortality rates in the United States (c. 1973–2002) in order to provide an insight into the potential health impacts of climate change. I find that humidity, like temperature, is an important determinant of mortality. Coupled with Hadley CM3 climate-change predictions, I project that mortality rates are likely to change little on the aggregate for the United States. However, distributional impacts matter: mortality rates are likely to decline in cold and dry areas, but increase in hot and humid areas. Further, accounting for humidity has important implications for evaluating these distributional effects. PMID:25328254

Enhanced pinning in superconducting thin films with graded pinning landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motta, M.; Colauto, F.; Ortiz, W. A.; Fritzsche, J.; Cuppens, J.; Gillijns, W.; Moshchalkov, V. V.; Johansen, T. H.; Sanchez, A.; Silhanek, A. V.

2013-05-01

A graded distribution of antidots in superconducting a-Mo79Ge21 thin films has been investigated by magnetization and magneto-optical imaging measurements. The pinning landscape has maximum density at the sample border, decreasing linearly towards the center. Its overall performance is noticeably superior than that for a sample with uniformly distributed antidots: For high temperatures and low fields, the critical current is enhanced, whereas the region of thermomagnetic instabilities in the field-temperature diagram is significantly suppressed. These findings confirm the relevance of graded landscapes on the enhancement of pinning efficiency, as recently predicted by Misko and Nori [Phys. Rev. B 85, 184506 (2012)].

Assessing trait-based scaling theory in tropical and temperate forests spanning a broad temperature gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enquist, B. J.

2017-12-01

Tropical and temperate elevation gradients are natural laboratories to assess how changing climate can influence tropical forests. However, there is a need for theory and integrated data collection to scale from traits to ecosystems. We assess predictions of a novel trait-based metabolic scaling theory including whether observed shifts in forest traits across a broad tropical temperature gradient is consistent with local phenotypic optima and adaptive compensation for temperature. We tested a new anaytical theory - Trait Driver Theory - that is capable of scaling from traits to entire stands and ecosystems across several elevation gradients spanning 3300m. Each gradient consists of thousands of tropical and temperate tree trait measures taken from forest plots. In several of these plots, in particular in southern Perú, gross and net primary productivity (GPP and NPP) were measured. We measured multiple traits linked to variation in tree growth and assessed their frequency distributions within and across the elevation gradient. We paired these trait measures across individuals within forests with simultaneous measures of ecosystem net and gross primary productivity. Consistent with theory, variation in forest NPP and GPP primarily scaled with forest biomass but the secondary effect of temperature on productivity was much less than expected. This weak temperature dependency appears to reflect directional shifts in several mean community traits that underlie tree growth with decreases in site temperature. The observed shift in traits of trees that dominant more cold environments appear to reflect `adaptive/acclimatory' compensation for the kinetic effects of temperature on leaf photosynthesis and tree growth. Forest trait distributions across the gradient showed peaked and skewed distributions, consistent with the importance of local filtering of optimal growth traits and recent shifts in species composition and dominance due to warming from climate change. Trait-based metabolic scaling theory provides a basis to predict how shifts in climate have and will influence the trait composition and ecosystem functioning of temperate and tropical forests.

Climate Change Impact Assessment in Pacific North West Using Copula based Coupling of Temperature and Precipitation variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Y.; Rana, A.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

The multi downscaled-scenario products allow us to better assess the uncertainty of the changes/variations of precipitation and temperature in the current and future periods. Joint Probability distribution functions (PDFs), of both the climatic variables, might help better understand the interdependence of the two, and thus in-turn help in accessing the future with confidence. Using the joint distribution of temperature and precipitation is also of significant importance in hydrological applications and climate change studies. In the present study, we have used multi-modelled statistically downscaled-scenario ensemble of precipitation and temperature variables using 2 different statistically downscaled climate dataset. The datasets used are, 10 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled products from CMIP5 daily dataset, namely, those from the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, leading to 2 ensemble time series from 20 GCM products. Thereafter the ensemble PDFs of both precipitation and temperature is evaluated for summer, winter, and yearly periods for all the 10 sub-basins across Columbia River Basin (CRB). Eventually, Copula is applied to establish the joint distribution of two variables enabling users to model the joint behavior of the variables with any level of correlation and dependency. Moreover, the probabilistic distribution helps remove the limitations on marginal distributions of variables in question. The joint distribution is then used to estimate the change trends of the joint precipitation and temperature in the current and future, along with estimation of the probabilities of the given change. Results have indicated towards varied change trends of the joint distribution of, summer, winter, and yearly time scale, respectively in all 10 sub-basins. Probabilities of changes, as estimated by the joint precipitation and temperature, will provide useful information/insights for hydrological and climate change predictions.

Temperature effects on deformation and serration behavior of high-entropy alloys (HEAs)

DOE PAGES

Antonaglia, J.; Xie, X.; Tang, Z.; ...

2014-09-16

Many materials are known to deform under shear in an intermittent way with slip avalanches detected as acoustic emission and serrations in the stress–strain curves. Similar serrations have recently been observed in a new class of materials, called high-entropy alloys (HEAs). Here, we discuss the serration behaviors of several HEAs from cryogenic to elevated temperatures. The experimental results of slow compression and tension tests are compared with the predictions of a slip-avalanche model for the deformation of a broad range of solids. The results shed light on the deformation processes in HEAs. Temperature effects on the distributions of stress dropsmore » and the decrease of the cutoff (i.e., of the largest observed slip size) for increasing temperature qualitatively agree with the model predictions. As a result, the model is used to quantify the serration characteristics of HEAs, and pertinent implications are discussed.« less

Subsurface thermal behaviour of tissue mimics embedded with large blood vessels during plasmonic photo-thermal therapy.

PubMed

Paul, Anup; Narasimhan, Arunn; Das, Sarit K; Sengupta, Soujit; Pradeep, Thalappil

2016-11-01

The purpose of this study was to understand the subsurface thermal behaviour of a tissue phantom embedded with large blood vessels (LBVs) when exposed to near-infrared (NIR) radiation. The effect of the addition of nanoparticles to irradiated tissue on the thermal sink behaviour of LBVs was also studied. Experiments were performed on a tissue phantom embedded with a simulated blood vessel of 2.2 mm outer diameter (OD)/1.6 mm inner diameter (ID) with a blood flow rate of 10 mL/min. Type I collagen from bovine tendon and agar gel were used as tissue. Two different nanoparticles, gold mesoflowers (AuMS) and graphene nanostructures, were synthesised and characterised. Energy equations incorporating a laser source term based on multiple scattering theories were solved using finite element-based commercial software. The rise in temperature upon NIR irradiation was seen to vary according to the position of the blood vessel and presence of nanoparticles. While the maximum rise in temperature was about 10 °C for bare tissue, it was 19 °C for tissue embedded with gold nanostructures and 38 °C for graphene-embedded tissues. The axial temperature distribution predicted by computational simulation matched the experimental observations. A different subsurface temperature distribution has been obtained for different tissue vascular network models. The position of LBVs must be known in order to achieve optimal tissue necrosis. The simulation described here helps in predicting subsurface temperature distributions within tissues during plasmonic photo-thermal therapy so that the risks of damage and complications associated with in vivo experiments and therapy may be avoided.

Cross-scale modeling of surface temperature and tree seedling establishment inmountain landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dingman, John; Sweet, Lynn C.; McCullough, Ian M.; Davis, Frank W.; Flint, Alan L.; Franklin, Janet; Flint, Lorraine E.

2013-01-01

Abstract: Introduction: Estimating surface temperature from above-ground field measurements is important for understanding the complex landscape patterns of plant seedling survival and establishment, processes which occur at heights of only several centimeters. Currently, future climate models predict temperature at 2 m above ground, leaving ground-surface microclimate not well characterized. Methods: Using a network of field temperature sensors and climate models, a ground-surface temperature method was used to estimate microclimate variability of minimum and maximum temperature. Temperature lapse rates were derived from field temperature sensors and distributed across the landscape capturing differences in solar radiation and cold air drainages modeled at a 30-m spatial resolution. Results: The surface temperature estimation method used for this analysis successfully estimated minimum surface temperatures on north-facing, south-facing, valley, and ridgeline topographic settings, and when compared to measured temperatures yielded an R2 of 0.88, 0.80, 0.88, and 0.80, respectively. Maximum surface temperatures generally had slightly more spatial variability than minimum surface temperatures, resulting in R2 values of 0.86, 0.77, 0.72, and 0.79 for north-facing, south-facing, valley, and ridgeline topographic settings. Quasi-Poisson regressions predicting recruitment of Quercus kelloggii (black oak) seedlings from temperature variables were significantly improved using these estimates of surface temperature compared to air temperature modeled at 2 m. Conclusion: Predicting minimum and maximum ground-surface temperatures using a downscaled climate model coupled with temperature lapse rates estimated from field measurements provides a method for modeling temperature effects on plant recruitment. Such methods could be applied to improve projections of species’ range shifts under climate change. Areas of complex topography can provide intricate microclimates that may allow species to redistribute locally as climate changes.

Ultrathin Injectable Sensors of Temperature, Thermal Conductivity, and Heat Capacity for Cardiac Ablation Monitoring

PubMed Central

Koh, Ahyeon; Gutbrod, Sarah R.; Meyers, Jason D.; Lu, Chaofeng; Webb, Richard Chad; Shin, Gunchul; Li, Yuhang; Kang, Seung-Kyun; Huang, Yonggang

2016-01-01

Knowledge of the distributions of temperature in cardiac tissue during and after ablation is important in advancing a basic understanding of this process, and for improving its efficacy in treating arrhythmias. Technologies that enable real-time temperature detection and thermal characterization in the transmural direction can help to predict the depths and sizes of lesion that form. Herein, materials and designs for an injectable device platform that supports precision sensors of temperature and thermal transport properties distributed along the length of an ultrathin and flexible needle-type polymer substrate are introduced. The resulting system can insert into the myocardial tissue, in a minimally invasive manner, to monitor both radiofrequency ablation and cryoablation, in a manner that has no measurable effects on the natural mechanical motions of the heart. The measurement results exhibit excellent agreement with thermal simulations, thereby providing improved insights into lesion transmurality. PMID:26648177

Multiple jet study data correlations. [data correlation for jet mixing flow of air jets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, R. E.; Eberhardt, R. G.

1975-01-01

Correlations are presented which allow determination of penetration and mixing of multiple cold air jets injected normal to a ducted subsonic heated primary air stream. Correlations were obtained over jet-to-primary stream momentum flux ratios of 6 to 60 for locations from 1 to 30 jet diameters downstream of the injection plane. The range of geometric and operating variables makes the correlations relevant to gas turbine combustors. Correlations were obtained for the mixing efficiency between jets and primary stream using an energy exchange parameter. Also jet centerplane velocity and temperature trajectories were correlated and centerplane dimensionless temperature distributions defined. An assumption of a Gaussian vertical temperature distribution at all stations is shown to result in a reasonable temperature field model. Data are presented which allow comparison of predicted and measured values over the range of conditions specified above.

Climate Warming and Seasonal Precipitation Change Interact to Limit Species Distribution Shifts across Western North America

PubMed Central

Harsch, Melanie A.; HilleRisLambers, Janneke

2016-01-01

Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations)–despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region- to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as 32% of species shifting upward). To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts of plant species, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction that distribution limits shifted was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species were more likely to shift upward at their upper elevational limit when minimum temperatures increased and snowfall was unchanging or declined at slower rates (<0.5 mm/year). This suggests that both low temperature and water availability limit upward shifts at upper elevation limits. By contrast, species were more likely to shift upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased, but also shifted upwards under conditions of cooling temperatures when precipitation decreased. This suggests increased water stress may drive upward shifts at lower elevation limits. Our results suggest that species’ elevational distribution shifts are not predictable by climate warming alone but depend on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change. PMID:27447834

Predictive Modeling of Risk Associated with Temperature Extremes over Continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravtsov, S.; Roebber, P.; Brazauskas, V.

2016-12-01

We build an extremely statistically accurate, essentially bias-free empirical emulator of atmospheric surface temperature and apply it for meteorological risk assessment over the domain of continental US. The resulting prediction scheme achieves an order-of-magnitude or larger gain of numerical efficiency compared with the schemes based on high-resolution dynamical atmospheric models, leading to unprecedented accuracy of the estimated risk distributions. The empirical model construction methodology is based on our earlier work, but is further modified to account for the influence of large-scale, global climate change on regional US weather and climate. The resulting estimates of the time-dependent, spatially extended probability of temperature extremes over the simulation period can be used as a risk management tool by insurance companies and regulatory governmental agencies.

Experimental study of thermocapillary flows in a thin liquid layer with heat fluxes imposed on the free surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lai, Chun-Liang; Greenberg, Paul S.; Chai, An-Ti

1988-01-01

To study thermocapillary flows in a two-dimensional thin liquid layer with heat fluxes imposed on the free surface experimentally, a long tray configuration was employed to simulate the infinite layer. The surface temperature distribution due to thermocapillary convective for different flow regimes was measured and compared with theoretical predictions. A short tray configuration was also employed to study the end wall effects (insulating or conducting). The results show that for a strong convection flow with an insulating wall as the boundary the surface temperature distribution became quite uniform. Consequently, the thermocapillary driving force was greatly reduced. On the other hand, a strong fluid motion always existed adjacent to the conducting wall because of the large surface temperature gradient near the wall.

Comparative Study of Shrinkage and Non-Shrinkage Model of Food Drying

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahari, N.; Jamil, N.; Rasmani, KA.

2016-08-01

A single phase heat and mass model has always been used to represent the moisture and temperature distribution during the drying of food. Several effects of the drying process, such as physical and structural changes, have been considered in order to increase understanding of the movement of water and temperature. However, the comparison between the heat and mass equation with and without structural change (in terms of shrinkage), which can affect the accuracy of the prediction model, has been little investigated. In this paper, two mathematical models to describe the heat and mass transfer in food, with and without the assumption of structural change, were analysed. The equations were solved using the finite difference method. The converted coordinate system was introduced within the numerical computations for the shrinkage model. The result shows that the temperature with shrinkage predicts a higher temperature at a specific time compared to that of the non-shrinkage model. Furthermore, the predicted moisture content decreased faster at a specific time when the shrinkage effect was included in the model.

Hydrocarbon pyrolysis reactor experimentation and modeling for the production of solar absorbing carbon nanoparticles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederickson, Lee Thomas

Much of combustion research focuses on reducing soot particulates in emissions. However, current research at San Diego State University (SDSU) Combustion and Solar Energy Laboratory (CSEL) is underway to develop a high temperature solar receiver which will utilize carbon nanoparticles as a solar absorption medium. To produce carbon nanoparticles for the small particle heat exchange receiver (SPHER), a lab-scale carbon particle generator (CPG) has been built and tested. The CPG is a heated ceramic tube reactor with a set point wall temperature of 1100-1300°C operating at 5-6 bar pressure. Natural gas and nitrogen are fed to the CPG where natural gas undergoes pyrolysis resulting in carbon particles. The gas-particle mixture is met downstream with dilution air and sent to the lab scale solar receiver. To predict soot yield and general trends in CPG performance, a model has been setup in Reaction Design CHEMKIN-PRO software. One of the primary goals of this research is to accurately measure particle properties. Mean particle diameter, size distribution, and index of refraction are calculated using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and a Diesel Particulate Scatterometer (DPS). Filter samples taken during experimentation are analyzed to obtain a particle size distribution with SEM images processed in ImageJ software. These results are compared with the DPS, which calculates the particle size distribution and the index of refraction from light scattering using Mie theory. For testing with the lab scale receiver, a particle diameter range of 200-500 nm is desired. Test conditions are varied to understand effects of operating parameters on particle size and the ability to obtain the size range. Analysis of particle loading is the other important metric for this research. Particle loading is measured downstream of the CPG outlet and dilution air mixing point. The air-particle mixture flows through an extinction tube where opacity of the mixture is measured with a 532 nm laser and detector. Beer's law is then used to calculate particle loading. The CPG needs to produce a certain particle loading for a corresponding receiver test. By obtaining the particle loading in the system, the reaction conversion to solid carbon in the CPG can be calculated to measure the efficiency of the CPG. To predict trends in reaction conversion and particle size from experimentation, the CHEMKIN-PRO computer model for the CPG is run for various flow rates and wall temperature profiles. These predictions were a reason for testing at higher wall set point temperatures. Based on these research goals, it was shown that the CPG consistently produces a mean particle diameter of 200-400 nm at the conditions tested, fitting perfectly inside the desired range. This led to successful lab scale SPHER testing which produced a 10-point efficiency increase and 150°C temperature difference with particles present. Also, at 3 g/s dilution air flow rate, an efficiency of 80% at an outlet temperature above 800°C was obtained. Promise was shown at higher CPG experimental temperatures to produce higher reaction conversion, both experimentally and in the model. However, based on wall temperature data taken during experimentation, it is apparent that the CPG needs to have multiple heating zones with separate temperature controllers in order to have an isothermal zone rather than a parabolic temperature profile. As for the computer model, it predicted much higher reaction conversion at higher temperature. The mass fraction of fuel in the inlet stream was shown to not affect conversion while increasing residence time led to increasing conversion. Particle size distribution in the model was far off and showed a bimodal distribution for one of the statistical methods. Using the results from experimentation and modeling, a preliminary CPG design is presented that will operate in a 5MWth receiver system.

An Improved Simulation of the Diurnally Varying Street Canyon Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaghoobian, Neda; Kleissl, Jan; Paw U, Kyaw Tha

2012-11-01

The impact of diurnal variation of temperature distribution over building and ground surfaces on the wind flow and scalar transport in street canyons is numerically investigated using the PArallelized LES Model (PALM). The Temperature of Urban Facets Indoor-Outdoor Building Energy Simulator (TUF-IOBES) is used for predicting urban surface heat fluxes as boundary conditions for a modified version of PALM. TUF-IOBES dynamically simulates indoor and outdoor building surface temperatures and heat fluxes in an urban area taking into account weather conditions, indoor heat sources, building and urban material properties, composition of the building envelope (e.g. windows, insulation), and HVAC equipment. Temperature (and heat flux) distribution over urban surfaces of the 3-D raster-type geometry of TUF-IOBES makes it possible to provide realistic, high resolution boundary conditions for the numerical simulation of flow and scalar transport in an urban canopy. Compared to some previous analyses using uniformly distributed thermal forcing associated with urban surfaces, the present analysis shows that resolving non-uniform thermal forcings can provide more detailed and realistic patterns of the local air flow and pollutant dispersion in urban canyons.

Life prediction and mechanical reliability of NT551 silicon nitride

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, Mark Jay

The inert strength and fatigue performance of a diesel engine exhaust valve made from silicon nitride (Si3N4) ceramic were assessed. The Si3N4 characterized in this study was manufactured by Saint Gobain/Norton Industrial Ceramics and was designated as NT551. The evaluation was made utilizing a probabilistic life prediction algorithm that combined censored test specimen strength data with a Weibull distribution function and the stress field of the ceramic valve obtained from finite element analysis. The major assumptions of the life prediction algorithm are that the bulk ceramic material is isotropic and homogeneous and that the strength-limiting flaws are uniformly distributed. The results from mechanical testing indicated that NT551 was not a homogeneous ceramic and that its strength were functions of temperature, loading rate, and machining orientation. Fractographic analysis identified four different failure modes; 2 were identified as inhomogeneities that were located throughout the bulk of NT551 and were due to processing operations. The fractographic analysis concluded that the strength degradation of NT551 observed from the temperature and loading rate test parameters was due to a change of state that occurred in its secondary phase. Pristine and engine-tested valves made from NT551 were loaded to failure and the inert strengths were obtained. Fractographic analysis of the valves identified the same four failure mechanisms as found with the test specimens. The fatigue performance and the inert strength of the Si3N 4 valves were assessed from censored and uncensored test specimen strength data, respectively. The inert strength failure probability predictions were compared to the inert strength of the Si3N4 valves. The inert strength failure probability predictions were more conservative than the strength of the valves. The lack of correlation between predicted and actual valve strength was due to the nonuniform distribution of inhomogeneities present in NT551. For the same reasons, the predicted and actual fatigue performance did not correlate well. The results of this study should not be considered a limitation of the life prediction algorithm but emphasize the requirement that ceramics be homogeneous and strength-limiting flaws uniformly distributed as a perquisite for accurate life prediction and reliability analyses.

Frequent long-distance plant colonization in the changing Arctic.

PubMed

Alsos, Inger Greve; Eidesen, Pernille Bronken; Ehrich, Dorothee; Skrede, Inger; Westergaard, Kristine; Jacobsen, Gro Hilde; Landvik, Jon Y; Taberlet, Pierre; Brochmann, Christian

2007-06-15

The ability of species to track their ecological niche after climate change is a major source of uncertainty in predicting their future distribution. By analyzing DNA fingerprinting (amplified fragment-length polymorphism) of nine plant species, we show that long-distance colonization of a remote arctic archipelago, Svalbard, has occurred repeatedly and from several source regions. Propagules are likely carried by wind and drifting sea ice. The genetic effect of restricted colonization was strongly correlated with the temperature requirements of the species, indicating that establishment limits distribution more than dispersal. Thus, it may be appropriate to assume unlimited dispersal when predicting long-term range shifts in the Arctic.

On the temperature prediction in a fire escape passage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casano, G.; Piva, S.

2017-11-01

Fire safety engineering requires a detailed understanding of fire behaviour and of its effects on structures and people. Many factors may condition the fire scenario, as for example, heat transfer between the flame and the boundary structures. Currently advanced numerical codes for the prediction of the fire behaviour are available. However, these solutions often require heavy calculations and long times. In this context analytical solutions can be useful for a fast analysis of simplified schematizations. After that, it is more effective the final utilization of the advanced fire codes. In this contribution, the temperature in a fire escape passage, separated with a thermally resistant wall from a fire room, is analysed. The escape space is included in a building where the neighbouring rooms are at a constant undisturbed temperature. The presence of the neighbouring rooms is considered with an equivalent heat transfer coefficient, in a boundary condition of the third type. An analytical solution is used to predict the temperature distribution during the fire. It allows to obtain useful information on the temperature reached in the escape area in contact with a burning room; it is useful also for a fast choice of the thermal characteristics of a firewall.

Chemical kinetic modeling of propene oxidation at low and intermediate temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilk, R.D.; Cernansky, N.P.; Pitz, W.J.

1986-01-13

A detailed chemical kinetic mechanism for propene oxidation is developed and used to model reactions in a static reactor at temperatures of 590 to 740/sup 0/K, equivalence ratios of 0.8 to 2.0, and a pressure of 600 torr. Modeling of hydrocarbon oxidation in this temperature range is important for the validation of detailed models to be used for performing calculations related to automotive engine knock. The model predicted induction periods and species concentrations for all the species measured experimentally in a static reactor by Wilk, Cernansky, and Cohen. The detailed model predicted a temperature region of approximately constant induction periodmore » which corresponded very closely to the region of negative temperature coefficient behavior found in the experiment. Overall, the calculated concentrations of acetaldehyde, ethene, and methane were somewhat low compared to the experimental measurements, and the calculated concentrations of formaldehyde and methanol were high. The characteristic s-shape of the fuel concentration history was well predicted. The importance of OH+C/sub 3/H/sub 6/ and related rections in determining product distributions and the importance of consumption reactions for allyl radicals was demonstrated by the modeling calculations. 18 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.« less

Thermal/Pyrolysis Gas Flow Analysis of Carbon Phenolic Material

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayton, J. Louie

2001-01-01

Provided in this study are predicted in-depth temperature and pyrolysis gas pressure distributions for carbon phenolic materials that are externally heated with a laser source. Governing equations, numerical techniques and comparisons to measured temperature data are also presented. Surface thermochemical conditions were determined using the Aerotherm Chemical Equilibrium (ACE) program. Surface heating simulation used facility calibrated radiative and convective flux levels. Temperatures and pyrolysis gas pressures are predicted using an upgraded form of the SINDA/CMA program that was developed by NASA during the Solid Propulsion Integrity Program (SPIP). Multispecie mass balance, tracking of condensable vapors, high heat rate kinetics, real gas compressibility and reduced mixture viscosity's have been added to the algorithm. In general, surface and in-depth temperature comparisons are very good. Specie partial pressures calculations show that a saturated water-vapor mixture is the main contributor to peak in-depth total pressure. Further, for most of the cases studied, the water-vapor mixture is driven near the critical point and is believed to significantly increase the local heat capacity of the composite material. This phenomenon if not accounted for in analysis models may lead to an over prediction in temperature response in charring regions of the material.

Temperature Distribution Within a Defect-Free Silicon Carbide Diode Predicted by a Computational Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuczmarski, Maria A.; Neudeck, Philip G.

2000-01-01

Most solid-state electronic devices diodes, transistors, and integrated circuits are based on silicon. Although this material works well for many applications, its properties limit its ability to function under extreme high-temperature or high-power operating conditions. Silicon carbide (SiC), with its desirable physical properties, could someday replace silicon for these types of applications. A major roadblock to realizing this potential is the quality of SiC material that can currently be produced. Semiconductors require very uniform, high-quality material, and commercially available SiC tends to suffer from defects in the crystalline structure that have largely been eliminated in silicon. In some power circuits, these defects can focus energy into an extremely small area, leading to overheating that can damage the device. In an effort to better understand the way that these defects affect the electrical performance and reliability of an SiC device in a power circuit, the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field began an in-house three-dimensional computational modeling effort. The goal is to predict the temperature distributions within a SiC diode structure subjected to the various transient overvoltage breakdown stresses that occur in power management circuits. A commercial computational fluid dynamics computer program (FLUENT-Fluent, Inc., Lebanon, New Hampshire) was used to build a model of a defect-free SiC diode and generate a computational mesh. A typical breakdown power density was applied over 0.5 msec in a heated layer at the junction between the p-type SiC and n-type SiC, and the temperature distribution throughout the diode was then calculated. The peak temperature extracted from the computational model agreed well (within 6 percent) with previous first-order calculations of the maximum expected temperature at the end of the breakdown pulse. This level of agreement is excellent for a model of this type and indicates that three-dimensional computational modeling can provide useful predictions for this class of problem. The model is now being extended to include the effects of crystal defects. The model will provide unique insights into how high the temperature rises in the vicinity of the defects in a diode at various power densities and pulse durations. This information also will help researchers in understanding and designing SiC devices for safe and reliable operation in high-power circuits.

Combined Loads Test Fixture for Thermal-Structural Testing Aerospace Vehicle Panel Concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fields, Roger A.; Richards, W. Lance; DeAngelis, Michael V.

2004-01-01

A structural test requirement of the National Aero-Space Plane (NASP) program has resulted in the design, fabrication, and implementation of a combined loads test fixture. Principal requirements for the fixture are testing a 4- by 4-ft hat-stiffened panel with combined axial (either tension or compression) and shear load at temperatures ranging from room temperature to 915 F, keeping the test panel stresses caused by the mechanical loads uniform, and thermal stresses caused by non-uniform panel temperatures minimized. The panel represents the side fuselage skin of an experimental aerospace vehicle, and was produced for the NASP program. A comprehensive mechanical loads test program using the new test fixture has been conducted on this panel from room temperature to 500 F. Measured data have been compared with finite-element analyses predictions, verifying that uniform load distributions were achieved by the fixture. The overall correlation of test data with analysis is excellent. The panel stress distributions and temperature distributions are very uniform and fulfill program requirements. This report provides details of an analytical and experimental validation of the combined loads test fixture. Because of its simple design, this unique test fixture can accommodate panels from a variety of aerospace vehicle designs.

Digitally controlled chirped pulse laser for sub-terahertz-range fiber structure interrogation.

PubMed

Chen, Zhen; Hefferman, Gerald; Wei, Tao

2017-03-01

This Letter reports a sweep velocity-locked laser pulse generator controlled using a digital phase-locked loop (DPLL) circuit. This design is used for the interrogation of sub-terahertz-range fiber structures for sensing applications that require real-time data collection with millimeter-level spatial resolution. A distributed feedback laser was employed to generate chirped laser pulses via injection current modulation. A DPLL circuit was developed to lock the optical frequency sweep velocity. A high-quality linearly chirped laser pulse with a frequency excursion of 117.69 GHz at an optical communication band was demonstrated. The system was further adopted to interrogate a continuously distributed sub-terahertz-range fiber structure (sub-THz-fs) for sensing applications. A strain test was conducted in which the sub-THz-fs showed a linear response to longitudinal strain change with predicted sensitivity. Additionally, temperature testing was conducted in which a heat source was used to generate a temperature distribution along the fiber structure to demonstrate its distributed sensing capability. A Gaussian temperature profile was measured using the described system and tracked in real time, as the heat source was moved.

A kinetic model for the thermal nitridation of SiO2/Si

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vasquez, R. P.; Madhukar, A.

1986-01-01

To explain the observed nitrogen distributions in thermally nitridated SiO2 films, a kinetic model is proposed in which the nitridation process is simulated, using the first-order chemical kinetics and Arrhenius dependence of the diffusion and reaction rates on temperature. The calculations show that initially, as the substrate reacts with diffusing nitrogen, a nitrogen-rich oxynitride forms at the SiO2-Si interface, while at nitridation temperatures above 1000 C, an oxygen-rich oxynitride subsequently forms at the interface, due to reaction of the substrate with an increasingly concentrated oxygen displaced by the slower nitridation of the SiO2. This sequence of events results in a nitrogen distribution in which the peak of the interfacial nitrogen concentration occurs away from the interface. The results are compared with the observed nitrogen distribution. The calculated results have correctly predicted the positions of the interfacial nitrogen peaks at the temperatures of 800, 1000, and 1150 C. To account for the observed width of the interfacial nitrogen distribution, it was found necessary to include in the simulations the effect of interfacial strain.

Development of Improved Accelerated Corrosion Qualification Test Methodology for Aerospace Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-01

irradiation and ozone gas • Cumulative damage model for predicting atmospheric corrosion rates of 1010 steel was developed using inputs from weather...data: – Temperature, – Relative humidity (%RH) – Atmospheric contaminants (chloride, SO2, and ozone ) levels Silver Al Alloy 7075 Al Alloy...2024 Al Alloy 6061 Copper Steel Ozone generator Ozone monitor 10 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

The rank correlated FSK model for prediction of gas radiation in non-uniform media, and its relationship to the rank correlated SLW model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solovjov, Vladimir P.; Webb, Brent W.; Andre, Frederic

2018-07-01

Following previous theoretical development based on the assumption of a rank correlated spectrum, the Rank Correlated Full Spectrum k-distribution (RC-FSK) method is proposed. The method proves advantageous in modeling radiation transfer in high temperature gases in non-uniform media in two important ways. First, and perhaps most importantly, the method requires no specification of a reference gas thermodynamic state. Second, the spectral construction of the RC-FSK model is simpler than original correlated FSK models, requiring only two cumulative k-distributions. Further, although not exhaustive, example problems presented here suggest that the method may also yield improved accuracy relative to prior methods, and may exhibit less sensitivity to the blackbody source temperature used in the model predictions. This paper outlines the theoretical development of the RC-FSK method, comparing the spectral construction with prior correlated spectrum FSK method formulations. Further the RC-FSK model's relationship to the Rank Correlated Spectral Line Weighted-sum-of-gray-gases (RC-SLW) model is defined. The work presents predictions using the Rank Correlated FSK method and previous FSK methods in three different example problems. Line-by-line benchmark predictions are used to assess the accuracy.

Fundamental niche prediction of the pathogenic yeasts Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii in Europe.

PubMed

Cogliati, Massimo; Puccianti, Erika; Montagna, Maria T; De Donno, Antonella; Susever, Serdar; Ergin, Cagri; Velegraki, Aristea; Ellabib, Mohamed S; Nardoni, Simona; Macci, Cristina; Trovato, Laura; Dipineto, Ludovico; Rickerts, Volker; Akcaglar, Sevim; Mlinaric-Missoni, Emilija; Bertout, Sebastien; Vencà, Ana C F; Sampaio, Ana C; Criseo, Giuseppe; Ranque, Stéphane; Çerikçioğlu, Nilgün; Marchese, Anna; Vezzulli, Luigi; Ilkit, Macit; Desnos-Ollivier, Marie; Pasquale, Vincenzo; Polacheck, Itzhack; Scopa, Antonio; Meyer, Wieland; Ferreira-Paim, Kennio; Hagen, Ferry; Boekhout, Teun; Dromer, Françoise; Varma, Ashok; Kwon-Chung, Kyung J; Inácio, Joäo; Colom, Maria F

2017-10-01

Fundamental niche prediction of Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii in Europe is an important tool to understand where these pathogenic yeasts have a high probability to survive in the environment and therefore to identify the areas with high risk of infection. In this study, occurrence data for C. neoformans and C. gattii were compared by MaxEnt software with several bioclimatic conditions as well as with soil characteristics and land use. The results showed that C. gattii distribution can be predicted with high probability along the Mediterranean coast. The analysis of variables showed that its distribution is limited by low temperatures during the coldest season, and by heavy precipitations in the driest season. C. neoformans var. grubii is able to colonize the same areas of C. gattii but is more tolerant to cold winter temperatures and summer precipitations. In contrast, the C. neoformans var. neoformans map was completely different. The best conditions for its survival were displayed in sub-continental areas and not along the Mediterranean coasts. In conclusion, we produced for the first time detailed prediction maps of the species and varieties of the C. neoformans and C. gattii species complex in Europe and Mediterranean area. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Predicting the impact of global warming on the geographical distribution pattern of Quercus variabilis in China].

PubMed

Li, Yao; Zhang, Xing-wang; Fang, Yan-ming

2014-12-01

The geographical distribution of Quercus variabilis in China with its climate characteristics was analyzed based on DIVA-GIS which was also used to estimate the response of future potential distribution to global warming by Bioclim and Domain models. Analysis results showed the geographical distribution of Q. variabilis could be divided into 7 subregions: Henduan Mountains, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, North China, East China, Liaodong-Shandong Peninsula, Taiwan Island, and Qinling-Daba Mountains. These subregions are across 7 temperature zones, 2 moisture regions and 17 climatic subregions, including 8 climate types. The modern abundance center of Q. variabilis is Qinling, Daba and Funiu mountains. The condition of mean annual temperature 7.5-19.8 degrees C annual precipitation 471-1511 mm, is suitable for Q. variabilis. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC values), of Domain and Boiclim models were 0.910, 0.779; the former predicted that the potential regions of high suitability for Q. variabilis are Qinling, Daba, Funiu, Tongbai, and Dabie mountains, eastern and western Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, hills of southern Jiangsu and Anhui, part of the mountains in North China. Global warming might lead to the shrinking in suitable region and retreating from the south for Q. variabilis.

Global potential distribution of Drosophila suzukii (Diptera, Drosophilidae)

PubMed Central

dos Santos, Luana A.; Mendes, Mayara F.; Krüger, Alexandra P.; Blauth, Monica L.; Gottschalk, Marco S.

2017-01-01

Drosophila suzukii (Matsumura) is a species native to Western Asia that is able to pierce intact fruit during egg laying, causing it to be considered a fruit crop pest in many countries. Drosophila suzukii have a rapid expansion worldwide; occurrences were recorded in North America and Europe in 2008, and South America in 2013. Due to this rapid expansion, we modeled the potential distribution of this species using the Maximum Entropy Modeling (MaxEnt) algorithm and the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production (GARP) using 407 sites with known occurrences worldwide and 11 predictor variables. After 1000 replicates, the value of the average area under the curve (AUC) of the model predictions with 1000 replicates was 0.97 for MaxEnt and 0.87 for GARP, indicating that both models had optimal performances. The environmental variables that most influenced the prediction of the MaxEnt model were the annual mean temperature, the maximum temperature of the warmest month, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and the annual precipitation. The models indicated high environmental suitability, mainly in temperate and subtropical areas in the continents of Asia, Europe and North and South America, where the species has already been recorded. The potential for further invasions of the African and Australian continents is predicted due to the environmental suitability of these areas for this species. PMID:28323903

Cosmological constraints from Chandra observations of galaxy clusters.

PubMed

Allen, Steven W

2002-09-15

Chandra observations of rich, relaxed galaxy clusters allow the properties of the X-ray gas and the total gravitating mass to be determined precisely. Here, we present results for a sample of the most X-ray luminous, dynamically relaxed clusters known. We show that the Chandra data and independent gravitational lensing studies provide consistent answers on the mass distributions in the clusters. The mass profiles exhibit a form in good agreement with the predictions from numerical simulations. Combining Chandra results on the X-ray gas mass fractions in the clusters with independent measurements of the Hubble constant and the mean baryonic matter density in the Universe, we obtain a tight constraint on the mean total matter density of the Universe, Omega(m), and an interesting constraint on the cosmological constant, Omega(Lambda). We also describe the 'virial relations' linking the masses, X-ray temperatures and luminosities of galaxy clusters. These relations provide a key step in linking the observed number density and spatial distribution of clusters to the predictions from cosmological models. The Chandra data confirm the presence of a systematic offset of ca. 40% between the normalization of the observed mass-temperature relation and the predictions from standard simulations. This finding leads to a significant revision of the best-fit value of sigma(8) inferred from the observed temperature and luminosity functions of clusters.

Influence of patient mispositioning on SAR distribution and simulated temperature in regional deep hyperthermia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aklan, Bassim; Gierse, Pia; Hartmann, Josefin; Ott, Oliver J.; Fietkau, Rainer; Bert, Christoph

2017-06-01

Patient positioning plays an important role in regional deep hyperthermia to obtain a successful hyperthermia treatment. In this study, the influence of possible patient mispositioning was systematically assessed on specific absorption rate (SAR) and temperature distribution. With a finite difference time domain approach, the SAR and temperature distributions were predicted for six patients at 312 positions. Patient displacements and rotations as well as the combination of both were considered inside the Sigma-Eye applicator. Position sensitivity is assessed for hyperthermia treatment planning -guided steering, which relies on model-based optimization of the SAR and temperature distribution. The evaluation of the patient mispositioning was done with and without optimization. The evaluation without optimization was made by creating a treatment plan for the patient reference position in the center of the applicator and applied for all other positions, while the evaluation with optimization was based on creating an individual plan for each position. The parameter T90 was used for the temperature evaluation, which was defined as the temperature that covers 90% of the gross tumor volume (GTV). Furthermore, the hotspot tumor quotient (HTQ) was used as a goal function to assess the quality of the SAR and temperature distribution. The T90 was shown considerably dependent on the position within the applicator. Without optimization, the T90 was clearly decreased below 40 °C by patient shifts and the combination of shifts and rotations. However, the application of optimization for each positon led to an increase of T90 in the GTV. Position inaccuracies of less than 1 cm in the X-and Y-directions and 2 cm in the Z-direction, resulted in an increase of HTQ of less than 5%, which does not significantly affect the SAR and temperature distribution. Current positioning precision is sufficient in the X (right-left)-direction, but position accuracy is required in the Y-and Z-directions.

Plant molecular responses to the elevated ambient temperatures expected under global climate change.

PubMed

Fei, Qionghui; Li, Jingjing; Luo, Yunhe; Ma, Kun; Niu, Bingtao; Mu, Changjun; Gao, Huanhuan; Li, Xiaofeng

2018-01-02

Environmental temperatures affect plant distribution, growth, and development. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global temperatures will rise by at least 1.5°C by the end of this century. Global temperature changes have already had a discernable impact on agriculture, phenology, and ecosystems. At the molecular level, extensive literature exists on the mechanism controlling plant responses to high temperature stress. However, few studies have focused on the molecular mechanisms behind plant responses to mild increases in ambient temperature. Previous research has found that moderately higher ambient temperatures can induce hypocotyl elongation and early flowering. Recent evidence demonstrates roles for the phytohormones auxin and ethylene in adaptive growth of plant roots to slightly higher ambient temperatures.

Tropical and Extratropical Cyclone Damages under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranson, M.; Kousky, C.; Ruth, M.; Jantarasami, L.; Crimmins, A.; Tarquinio, L.

2014-12-01

This paper provides the first quantitative synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on future tropical and extratropical cyclone losses under climate change. We estimate a probability distribution for the predicted impact of changes in global surface air temperatures on future storm damages, using an ensemble of 296 estimates of the temperature-damage relationship from twenty studies. Our analysis produces three main empirical results. First, we find strong but not conclusive support for the hypothesis that climate change will cause damages from tropical cyclones and wind storms to increase, with most models (84 and 92 percent, respectively) predicting higher future storm damages due to climate change. Second, there is substantial variation in projected changes in losses across regions. Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where the multi-model average predicts that a 2.5°C increase in global surface air temperature would cause hurricane damages to increase by 62 percent. The ensemble predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones and European wind storms (extratropical cyclones) are approximately one third of that magnitude. Finally, our analysis shows that existing models of storm damages under climate change generate a wide range of predictions, ranging from moderate decreases to very large increases in losses.

Seasonal Changes in Titan's Surface Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jennins, Donald E.; Cottini, V.; Nixon, C. A.; Flasar, F. M.; Kunde, V. G.; Samuelson, R. E.; Romani, P. N.; Hesman, B. E.; Carlson, R. C.; Gorius, N. J. P.;

Satellite-derived potential evapotranspiration for distributed hydrologic runoff modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spies, R. R.; Franz, K. J.; Bowman, A.; Hogue, T. S.; Kim, J.

2012-12-01

Distributed models have the ability of incorporating spatially variable data, especially high resolution forcing inputs such as precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration in hydrologic modeling. Use of distributed hydrologic models for operational streamflow prediction has been partially hindered by a lack of readily available, spatially explicit input observations. Potential evapotranspiration (PET), for example, is currently accounted for through PET input grids that are based on monthly climatological values. The goal of this study is to assess the use of satellite-based PET estimates that represent the temporal and spatial variability, as input to the National Weather Service (NWS) Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM). Daily PET grids are generated for six watersheds in the upper Mississippi River basin using a method that applies only MODIS satellite-based observations and the Priestly Taylor formula (MODIS-PET). The use of MODIS-PET grids will be tested against the use of the current climatological PET grids for simulating basin discharge. Gridded surface temperature forcing data are derived by applying the inverse distance weighting spatial prediction method to point-based station observations from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) and Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS). Precipitation data are obtained from the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis (CCPA). A-priori gridded parameters for the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA), Snow-17 model, and routing model are initially obtained from the Office of Hydrologic Development and further calibrated using an automated approach. The potential of the MODIS-PET to be used in an operational distributed modeling system will be assessed with the long-term goal of promoting research to operations transfers and advancing the science of hydrologic forecasting.

[Geographical distribution of the Serum creatinine reference values of healthy adults].

PubMed

Wei, De-Zhi; Ge, Miao; Wang, Cong-Xia; Lin, Qian-Yi; Li, Meng-Jiao; Li, Peng

2016-11-20

To explore the relationship between serum creatinine (Scr) reference values in healthy adults and geographic factors and provide evidence for establishing Scr reference values in different regions. We collected 29 697 Scr reference values from healthy adults measured by 347 medical facilities from 23 provinces, 4 municipalities and 5 autonomous regions. We chose 23 geographical factors and analyzed their correlation with Scr reference values to identify the factors correlated significantly with Scr reference values. According to the Principal component analysis and Ridge regression analysis, two predictive models were constructed and the optimal model was chosen after comparison of the two model's fitting degree of predicted results and measured results. The distribution map of Scr reference values was drawn using the Kriging interpolation method. Seven geographic factors, including latitude, annual sunshine duration, annual average temperature, annual average relative humidity, annual precipitation, annual temperature range and topsoil (silt) cation exchange capacity were found to correlate significantly with Scr reference values. The overall distribution of Scr reference values featured a pattern that the values were high in the south and low in the north, varying consistently with the latitude change. The data of the geographic factors in a given region allows the prediction of the Scr values in healthy adults. Analysis of these geographical factors can facilitate the determination of the reference values specific to a region to improve the accuracy for clinical diagnoses.

Untangling the roles of microclimate, behaviour and physiological polymorphism in governing vulnerability of intertidal snails to heat stress.

PubMed

Dong, Yun-Wei; Li, Xiao-Xu; Choi, Francis M P; Williams, Gray A; Somero, George N; Helmuth, Brian

2017-05-17

Biogeographic distributions are driven by cumulative effects of smaller scale processes. Thus, vulnerability of animals to thermal stress is the result of physiological sensitivities to body temperature ( T b ), microclimatic conditions, and behavioural thermoregulation. To understand interactions among these variables, we analysed the thermal tolerances of three species of intertidal snails from different latitudes along the Chinese coast, and estimated potential T b in different microhabitats at each site. We then empirically determined the temperatures at which heart rate decreased sharply with rising temperature (Arrhenius breakpoint temperature, ABT) and at which it fell to zero (flat line temperature, FLT) to calculate thermal safety margins (TSM). Regular exceedance of FLT in sun-exposed microhabitats, a lethal effect, was predicted for only one mid-latitude site. However, ABTs of some individuals were exceeded at sun-exposed microhabitats in most sites, suggesting physiological impairment for snails with poor behavioural thermoregulation and revealing inter-individual variations (physiological polymorphism) of thermal limits. An autocorrelation analysis of T b showed that predictability of extreme temperatures was lowest at the hottest sites, indicating that the effectiveness of behavioural thermoregulation is potentially lowest at these sites. These results illustrate the critical roles of mechanistic studies at small spatial scales when predicting effects of climate change. © 2017 The Author(s).

Untangling the roles of microclimate, behaviour and physiological polymorphism in governing vulnerability of intertidal snails to heat stress

PubMed Central

Li, Xiao-xu; Choi, Francis M. P.; Williams, Gray A.; Somero, George N.; Helmuth, Brian

2017-01-01

Biogeographic distributions are driven by cumulative effects of smaller scale processes. Thus, vulnerability of animals to thermal stress is the result of physiological sensitivities to body temperature (Tb), microclimatic conditions, and behavioural thermoregulation. To understand interactions among these variables, we analysed the thermal tolerances of three species of intertidal snails from different latitudes along the Chinese coast, and estimated potential Tb in different microhabitats at each site. We then empirically determined the temperatures at which heart rate decreased sharply with rising temperature (Arrhenius breakpoint temperature, ABT) and at which it fell to zero (flat line temperature, FLT) to calculate thermal safety margins (TSM). Regular exceedance of FLT in sun-exposed microhabitats, a lethal effect, was predicted for only one mid-latitude site. However, ABTs of some individuals were exceeded at sun-exposed microhabitats in most sites, suggesting physiological impairment for snails with poor behavioural thermoregulation and revealing inter-individual variations (physiological polymorphism) of thermal limits. An autocorrelation analysis of Tb showed that predictability of extreme temperatures was lowest at the hottest sites, indicating that the effectiveness of behavioural thermoregulation is potentially lowest at these sites. These results illustrate the critical roles of mechanistic studies at small spatial scales when predicting effects of climate change. PMID:28469014

Contrasting growth forecasts across the geographical range of Scots pine due to altitudinal and latitudinal differences in climatic sensitivity.

PubMed

Matías, Luis; Linares, Juan C; Sánchez-Miranda, Ángela; Jump, Alistair S

2017-10-01

Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of a species' geographical distribution, where differences in growth or population dynamics may result in range expansions or contractions. Understanding population responses to different climatic drivers along wide latitudinal and altitudinal gradients is necessary in order to gain a better understanding of plant responses to ongoing increases in global temperature and drought severity. We selected Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a model species to explore growth responses to climatic variability (seasonal temperature and precipitation) over the last century through dendrochronological methods. We developed linear models based on age, climate and previous growth to forecast growth trends up to year 2100 using climatic predictions. Populations were located at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the northern, central and southernmost populations and across an altitudinal gradient at the southern edge of the distribution (treeline, medium and lower elevations). Radial growth was maximal at medium altitude and treeline of the southernmost populations. Temperature was the main factor controlling growth variability along the gradients, although the timing and strength of climatic variables affecting growth shifted with latitude and altitude. Predictive models forecast a general increase in Scots pine growth at treeline across the latitudinal distribution, with southern populations increasing growth up to year 2050, when it stabilizes. The highest responsiveness appeared at central latitude, and moderate growth increase is projected at the northern limit. Contrastingly, the model forecasted growth declines at lowland-southern populations, suggesting an upslope range displacement over the coming decades. Our results give insight into the geographical responses of tree species to climate change and demonstrate the importance of incorporating biogeographical variability into predictive models for an accurate prediction of species dynamics as climate changes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate-driven changes to the spatio-temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe.

PubMed

Rose, Hannah; Caminade, Cyril; Bolajoko, Muhammad Bashir; Phelan, Paul; van Dijk, Jan; Baylis, Matthew; Williams, Diana; Morgan, Eric R

2016-03-01

Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio-temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q0 , adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan-European spatio-temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q0 simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within-host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q0 simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2-3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary control strategies, and potentially drive local adaptation to climate change in parasite populations. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimation of state and material properties during heat-curing molding of composite materials using data assimilation: A numerical study.

PubMed

Matsuzaki, Ryosuke; Tachikawa, Takeshi; Ishizuka, Junya

2018-03-01

Accurate simulations of carbon fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP) molding are vital for the development of high-quality products. However, such simulations are challenging and previous attempts to improve the accuracy of simulations by incorporating the data acquired from mold monitoring have not been completely successful. Therefore, in the present study, we developed a method to accurately predict various CFRP thermoset molding characteristics based on data assimilation, a process that combines theoretical and experimental values. The degree of cure as well as temperature and thermal conductivity distributions during the molding process were estimated using both temperature data and numerical simulations. An initial numerical experiment demonstrated that the internal mold state could be determined solely from the surface temperature values. A subsequent numerical experiment to validate this method showed that estimations based on surface temperatures were highly accurate in the case of degree of cure and internal temperature, although predictions of thermal conductivity were more difficult.

Program to develop a performance and heat load prediction system for multistage turbines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharma, OM

1994-01-01

Flows in low-aspect ratio turbines, such as the SSME fuel turbine, are three dimensional and highly unsteady due to the relative motion of adjacent airfoil rows and the circumferential and spanwise gradients in total pressure and temperature, The systems used to design these machines, however, are based on the assumption that the flow is steady. The codes utilized in these design systems are calibrated against turbine rig and engine data through the use of empirical correlations and experience factors. For high aspect ratio turbines, these codes yield reasonably accurate estimates of flow and temperature distributions. However, future design trends will see lower aspect ratio (reduced number of parts) and higher inlet temperature which will result in increased three dimensionality and flow unsteadiness in turbines. Analysis of recently acquired data indicate that temperature streaks and secondary flows generated in combustors and up-stream airfoils can have a large impact on the time-averaged temperature and angle distributions in downstream airfoil rows.

Predicting the spatial and temporal distributions of marine fish species utilizing earth system data in a MaxEnt model framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Kerr, L. A.; Bridger, E.

2016-02-01

Changes in species distributions have been widely associated with climate change. Understanding how ocean temperatures influence species distributions is critical for elucidating the role of climate in ecosystem change as well as for forecasting how species may be distributed in the future. As such, species distribution modeling (SDM) is increasingly useful in marine ecosystems research, as it can enable estimation of the likelihood of encountering marine fish in space or time as a function of a set of environmental and ecosystem conditions. Many traditional SDM approaches are applied to species data collected through standardized methods that include both presence and absence records, but are incapable of using presence-only data, such as those collected from fisheries or through citizen science programs. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models provide promising tools as they can predict species distributions from incomplete information (presence-only data). We developed a MaxEnt framework to relate the occurrence records of several marine fish species (e.g. Atlantic herring, Atlantic mackerel, and butterfish) to environmental conditions. Environmental variables derived from remote sensing, such as monthly average sea surface temperature (SST), are matched with fish species data, and model results indicate the relative occurrence rate of the species as a function of the environmental variables. The results can be used to provide hindcasts of where species might have been in the past in relation to historical environmental conditions, nowcasts in relation to current conditions, and forecasts of future species distributions. In this presentation, we will assess the relative influence of several environmental factors on marine fish species distributions, and evaluate the effects of data coverage on these presence-only models. We will also discuss how the information from species distribution forecasts can support climate adaptation planning in marine fisheries.

Non-invasive, transient determination of the core temperature of a heat-generating solid body

PubMed Central

Anthony, Dean; Sarkar, Daipayan; Jain, Ankur

2016-01-01

While temperature on the surface of a heat-generating solid body can be easily measured using a variety of methods, very few techniques exist for non-invasively measuring the temperature inside the solid body as a function of time. Measurement of internal temperature is very desirable since measurement of just the surface temperature gives no indication of temperature inside the body, and system performance and safety is governed primarily by the highest temperature, encountered usually at the core of the body. This paper presents a technique to non-invasively determine the internal temperature based on the theoretical relationship between the core temperature and surface temperature distribution on the outside of a heat-generating solid body as functions of time. Experiments using infrared thermography of the outside surface of a thermal test cell in a variety of heating and cooling conditions demonstrate good agreement of the predicted core temperature as a function of time with actual core temperature measurement using an embedded thermocouple. This paper demonstrates a capability to thermally probe inside solid bodies in a non-invasive fashion. This directly benefits the accurate performance prediction and control of a variety of engineering systems where the time-varying core temperature plays a key role. PMID:27804981

Non-invasive, transient determination of the core temperature of a heat-generating solid body

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anthony, Dean; Sarkar, Daipayan; Jain, Ankur

2016-11-01

While temperature on the surface of a heat-generating solid body can be easily measured using a variety of methods, very few techniques exist for non-invasively measuring the temperature inside the solid body as a function of time. Measurement of internal temperature is very desirable since measurement of just the surface temperature gives no indication of temperature inside the body, and system performance and safety is governed primarily by the highest temperature, encountered usually at the core of the body. This paper presents a technique to non-invasively determine the internal temperature based on the theoretical relationship between the core temperature and surface temperature distribution on the outside of a heat-generating solid body as functions of time. Experiments using infrared thermography of the outside surface of a thermal test cell in a variety of heating and cooling conditions demonstrate good agreement of the predicted core temperature as a function of time with actual core temperature measurement using an embedded thermocouple. This paper demonstrates a capability to thermally probe inside solid bodies in a non-invasive fashion. This directly benefits the accurate performance prediction and control of a variety of engineering systems where the time-varying core temperature plays a key role.

An integrated approch to the foraging ecology of marine birds and mammals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croll, Donald A.; Tershy, Bernie R.; Hewitt, Roger P.; Demer, David A.; Fiedler, Paul C.; Smith, Susan E.; Armstrong, Wesley; Popp, Jacqueline M.; Kiekhefer, Thomas; Lopez, Vanesa R.; Urban, Jorge; Gendron, Diane

Birds and mammals are important components of pelagic marine ecosystems, but our knowledge of their foraging ecology is limited. We distinguish six distinct types of data that can be used in various combinations to understand their foraging behavior and ecology. We describe methods that combine concurrent dive recorder deployment, oceanographic sampling, and hydroacoustic surveys to generate hypotheses about interactions between the physical environment and the distribution, abundance, and behavior of pelagic predators and their prey. Our approach is to (1) map the distribution of whales in relation to the distribution of their prey and the physical features of the study area (bottom topography, temperature, and salinity); and (2) measure the foraging behavior and diet of instrumented whales in the context of the fine-scale distribution and composition of their prey and the physical environment. We use this approach to demonstrate a relationship between blue whale distribution, sea surface temperature, and concentrations of their euphausiid prey at different spatial scales offshore of the Channel Islands, California. Blue whale horizontal spatial distribution was correlated with regions of high acoustic backscatter. Blue whale dive depths closely tracked the depth distribution of krill. Net sampling and whale diet revealed that whales fed exclusively upon dense schools of Euphausia pacifica (between 100 and 200 m) and Thysanoessa spinifera (from the surface to 100 m). Whales concentrated foraging efforts upon those dense euphausiid schools that form downstream from an upwelling center in close proximity to regions of steep topographic relief. We propose that (1) the distribution of Balaenoptera whales in the coastal California Current region is defined by their attraction to areas of predictably high prey density; (2) the preferred prey of these whales are several species of euphausiids ( E. pacifica, T. spinifera, and N. simplex) that are abundant in the California Current region; (3) blue whales concentrate their foraging efforts on dense aggregations of euphausiids found at discrete depths in the water column; (4) these localized areas of high euphausiid densities are predictable and sustained by enhanced levels of primary productivity in regions which are located downstream from coastal upwelling centers (indicated by sea surface temperature); (5) topographic breaks in the continental shelf located downstream from these upwelling centers work in concert with euphausiid behavior to collect and maintain large concentrations of euphausiids swarms, and (6) despite seasonal and inter-annual variability, these processes are sufficiently consistent that the distribution of Balaenoptera whales can be predicted.

Spatial variation in water loss predicts terrestrial salamander distribution and population dynamics.

PubMed

Peterman, W E; Semlitsch, R D

2014-10-01

Many patterns observed in ecology, such as species richness, life history variation, habitat use, and distribution, have physiological underpinnings. For many ectothermic organisms, temperature relationships shape these patterns, but for terrestrial amphibians, water balance may supersede temperature as the most critical physiologically limiting factor. Many amphibian species have little resistance to water loss, which restricts them to moist microhabitats, and may significantly affect foraging, dispersal, and courtship. Using plaster models as surrogates for terrestrial plethodontid salamanders (Plethodon albagula), we measured water loss under ecologically relevant field conditions to estimate the duration of surface activity time across the landscape. Surface activity time was significantly affected by topography, solar exposure, canopy cover, maximum air temperature, and time since rain. Spatially, surface activity times were highest in ravine habitats and lowest on ridges. Surface activity time was a significant predictor of salamander abundance, as well as a predictor of successful recruitment; the probability of a juvenile salamander occupying an area with high surface activity time was two times greater than an area with limited predicted surface activity. Our results suggest that survival, recruitment, or both are demographic processes that are affected by water loss and the ability of salamanders to be surface-active. Results from our study extend our understanding of plethodontid salamander ecology, emphasize the limitations imposed by their unique physiology, and highlight the importance of water loss to spatial population dynamics. These findings are timely for understanding the effects that fluctuating temperature and moisture conditions predicted for future climates will have on plethodontid salamanders.

Experimental und numerical investigations on cooling efficiency of Air-Mist nozzles on steel during continuous casting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arth, G.; Taferner, M.; Bernhard, C.; Michelic, S.

2016-07-01

Cooling strategies in continuous casting of steel can vary from rapid cooling to slow cooling, mainly controlled by adjusting the amount of water sprayed onto the surface of the product. Inadequate adjustment however can lead to local surface undercooling or reheating, leading to surface and inner defects. This paper focuses on cooling efficiency of Air-Mist nozzles on casted steel and the experimental and numerical prediction of surface temperature distributions over the product width. The first part explains the determination of heat transfer coefficients (HTC) on laboratory scale, using a so called nozzle measuring stand (NMS). Based on measured water distributions and determined HTC's for air-mist nozzles using the NMS, surface temperatures are calculated by a transient 2D-model on a simple steel plate, explained in the second part of this paper. Simulations are carried out varying water impact density and spray water distribution, consequently influencing the local HTC distribution over the plate width. Furthermore, these results will be interpreted with regard to their consequence for surface and internal quality of the cast product. The results reveal the difficulty of correct adjustment of the amount of sprayed water, concurrent influencing water distribution and thus changing HTC distribution and surface temperature.

INFLUENCE OF MATERIAL MODELS ON PREDICTING THE FIRE BEHAVIOR OF STEEL COLUMNS.

PubMed

Choe, Lisa; Zhang, Chao; Luecke, William E; Gross, John L; Varma, Amit H

2017-01-01

Finite-element (FE) analysis was used to compare the high-temperature responses of steel columns with two different stress-strain models: the Eurocode 3 model and the model proposed by National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The comparisons were made in three different phases. The first phase compared the critical buckling temperatures predicted using forty seven column data from five different laboratories. The slenderness ratios varied from 34 to 137, and the applied axial load was 20-60 % of the room-temperature capacity. The results showed that the NIST model predicted the buckling temperature as or more accurately than the Eurocode 3 model for four of the five data sets. In the second phase, thirty unique FE models were developed to analyze the W8×35 and W14×53 column specimens with the slenderness ratio about 70. The column specimens were tested under steady-heating conditions with a target temperature in the range of 300-600 °C. The models were developed by combining the material model, temperature distributions in the specimens, and numerical scheme for non-linear analyses. Overall, the models with the NIST material properties and the measured temperature variations showed the results comparable to the test data. The deviations in the results from two different numerical approaches (modified Newton Raphson vs. arc-length) were negligible. The Eurocode 3 model made conservative predictions on the behavior of the column specimens since its retained elastic moduli are smaller than those of the NIST model at elevated temperatures. In the third phase, the column curves calibrated using the NIST model was compared with those prescribed in the ANSI/AISC-360 Appendix 4. The calibrated curve significantly deviated from the current design equation with increasing temperature, especially for the slenderness ratio from 50 to 100.

Spatial variation in the climatic predictors of species compositional turnover and endemism.

PubMed

Di Virgilio, Giovanni; Laffan, Shawn W; Ebach, Malte C; Chapple, David G

2014-08-01

Previous research focusing on broad-scale or geographically invariant species-environment dependencies suggest that temperature-related variables explain more of the variation in reptile distributions than precipitation. However, species-environment relationships may exhibit considerable spatial variation contingent upon the geographic nuances that vary between locations. Broad-scale, geographically invariant analyses may mask this local variation and their findings may not generalize to different locations at local scales. We assess how reptile-climatic relationships change with varying spatial scale, location, and direction. Since the spatial distributions of diversity and endemism hotspots differ for other species groups, we also assess whether reptile species turnover and endemism hotspots are influenced differently by climatic predictors. Using New Zealand reptiles as an example, the variation in species turnover, endemism and turnover in climatic variables was measured using directional moving window analyses, rotated through 360°. Correlations between the species turnover, endemism and climatic turnover results generated by each rotation of the moving window were analysed using multivariate generalized linear models applied at national, regional, and local scales. At national-scale, temperature turnover consistently exhibited the greatest influence on species turnover and endemism, but model predictive capacity was low (typically r (2) = 0.05, P < 0.001). At regional scales the relative influence of temperature and precipitation turnover varied between regions, although model predictive capacity was also generally low. Climatic turnover was considerably more predictive of species turnover and endemism at local scales (e.g., r (2) = 0.65, P < 0.001). While temperature turnover had the greatest effect in one locale (the northern North Island), there was substantial variation in the relative influence of temperature and precipitation predictors in the remaining four locales. Species turnover and endemism hotspots often occurred in different locations. Climatic predictors had a smaller influence on endemism. Our results caution against assuming that variability in temperature will always be most predictive of reptile biodiversity across different spatial scales, locations and directions. The influence of climatic turnover on the species turnover and endemism of other taxa may exhibit similar patterns of spatial variation. Such intricate variation might be discerned more readily if studies at broad scales are complemented by geographically variant, local-scale analyses.

On-line consolidation of thermoplastic composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, Po-Jen

An on-line consolidation system, which includes a computer-controlled filament winding machine and a consolidation head assembly, has been designed and constructed to fabricate composite parts from thermoplastic towpregs. A statistical approach was used to determine the significant processing parameters and their effect on the mechanical and physical properties of composite cylinders fabricated by on-line consolidation. A central composite experimental design was used to select the processing conditions for manufacturing the composite cylinders. The thickness, density, void content, degree of crystallinity and interlaminar shear strength (ILSS) were measured for each composite cylinder. Micrographs showed that complete intimate contact and uniform fiber-matrix distribution were achieved. The degree of crystallinity of the cylinders was found to be in the range of 25-30%. Under optimum processing conditions, an ILSS of 58 MPa and a void content of <1% were achieved for APC-2 (PEEK/Carbon fiber) composite cylinders. An in-situ measurement system which uses a slip ring assembly and a computer data acquisition system was developed to obtain temperature data during winding. Composite cylinders were manufactured with eight K-type thermocouples installed in various locations inside the cylinder. The temperature distribution inside the composite cylinder during winding was measured for different processing conditions. ABAQUS finite element models of the different processes that occur during on-line consolidation were constructed. The first model was used to determine the convective heat transfer coefficient for the hot-air heat source. A convective heat transfer coefficient of 260 w/msp{2°}K was obtained by matching the calculated temperature history to the in-situ measurement data. To predict temperature distribution during winding an ABAQUS winding simulation model was developed. The winding speed was modeled by incrementally moving the convective boundary conditions around the outer surface of the composite cylinder. A towpreg heating model was constructed to predict the temperature distribution on the cross section of the incoming towpreg. For the process-induced thermal stresses analysis, a thermoelastic finite element model was constructed. Using the temperature history obtained from thermal analysis as the initial conditions, the thermal stresses during winding and cooling were investigated.

Multivariate Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forcasts of Precipitation and Temperature over four River Basins in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheuerer, Michael; Hamill, Thomas M.; Whitin, Brett; He, Minxue; Henkel, Arthur

2017-04-01

Hydrological forecasts strongly rely on predictions of precipitation amounts and temperature as meteorological inputs to hydrological models. Ensemble weather predictions provide a number of different scenarios that reflect the uncertainty about these meteorological inputs, but are often biased and underdispersive, and therefore require statistical postprocessing. In hydrological applications it is crucial that spatial and temporal (i.e. between different forecast lead times) dependencies as well as dependence between the two weather variables is adequately represented by the recalibrated forecasts. We present a study with temperature and precipitation forecasts over four river basins over California that are postprocessed with a variant of the nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression method (Gneiting et al., 2005) and the censored, shifted gamma distribution approach (Scheuerer and Hamill, 2015) respectively. For modelling spatial, temporal and inter-variable dependence we propose a variant of the Schaake Shuffle (Clark et al., 2005) that uses spatio-temporal trajectories of observed temperture and precipitation as a dependence template, and chooses the historic dates in such a way that the divergence between the marginal distributions of these trajectories and the univariate forecast distributions is minimized. For the four river basins considered in our study, this new multivariate modelling technique consistently improves upon the Schaake Shuffle and yields reliable spatio-temporal forecast trajectories of temperature and precipitation that can be used to force hydrological forecast systems. References: Clark, M., Gangopadhyay, S., Hay, L., Rajagopalan, B., Wilby, R., 2004. The Schaake Shuffle: A method for reconstructing space-time variability in forecasted precipitation and temperature fields. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5, pp.243-262. Gneiting, T., Raftery, A.E., Westveld, A.H., Goldman, T., 2005. Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS. Monthly Weather Review, 133, pp.1098-1118. Scheuerer, M., Hamill, T.M., 2015. Statistical postprocessing of ensemble precipitation forecasts by fitting censored, shifted gamma distributions. Monthly Weather Review, 143, pp.4578-4596. Scheuerer, M., Hamill, T.M., Whitin, B., He, M., and Henkel, A., 2016: A method for preferential selection of dates in the Schaake shuffle approach to constructing spatio-temporal forecast fields of temperature and precipitation. Water Resources Research, submitted.

Lowland biotic attrition revisited: body size and variation among climate change ‘winners’ and ‘losers’

PubMed Central

Strimas-Mackey, Matthew; Mohd-Azlan, Jayasilan; Granados, Alys; Bernard, Henry; Giordano, Anthony J.; Helmy, Olga E.

2017-01-01

The responses of lowland tropical communities to climate change will critically influence global biodiversity but remain poorly understood. If species in these systems are unable to tolerate warming, the communities—currently the most diverse on Earth—may become depauperate (‘biotic attrition’). In response to temperature changes, animals can adjust their distribution in space or their activity in time, but these two components of the niche are seldom considered together. We assessed the spatio-temporal niches of rainforest mammal species in Borneo across gradients in elevation and temperature. Most species are not predicted to experience changes in spatio-temporal niche availability, even under pessimistic warming scenarios. Responses to temperature are not predictable by phylogeny but do appear to be trait-based, being much more variable in smaller-bodied taxa. General circulation models and weather station data suggest unprecedentedly high midday temperatures later in the century; predicted responses to this warming among small-bodied species range from 9% losses to 6% gains in spatio-temporal niche availability, while larger species have close to 0% predicted change. Body mass may therefore be a key ecological trait influencing the identity of climate change winners and losers. Mammal species composition will probably change in some areas as temperatures rise, but full-scale biotic attrition this century appears unlikely. PMID:28100818

Lowland biotic attrition revisited: body size and variation among climate change 'winners' and 'losers'.

PubMed

Brodie, Jedediah F; Strimas-Mackey, Matthew; Mohd-Azlan, Jayasilan; Granados, Alys; Bernard, Henry; Giordano, Anthony J; Helmy, Olga E

2017-01-25

The responses of lowland tropical communities to climate change will critically influence global biodiversity but remain poorly understood. If species in these systems are unable to tolerate warming, the communities-currently the most diverse on Earth-may become depauperate ('biotic attrition'). In response to temperature changes, animals can adjust their distribution in space or their activity in time, but these two components of the niche are seldom considered together. We assessed the spatio-temporal niches of rainforest mammal species in Borneo across gradients in elevation and temperature. Most species are not predicted to experience changes in spatio-temporal niche availability, even under pessimistic warming scenarios. Responses to temperature are not predictable by phylogeny but do appear to be trait-based, being much more variable in smaller-bodied taxa. General circulation models and weather station data suggest unprecedentedly high midday temperatures later in the century; predicted responses to this warming among small-bodied species range from 9% losses to 6% gains in spatio-temporal niche availability, while larger species have close to 0% predicted change. Body mass may therefore be a key ecological trait influencing the identity of climate change winners and losers. Mammal species composition will probably change in some areas as temperatures rise, but full-scale biotic attrition this century appears unlikely. © 2017 The Author(s).

Predicting the Global Potential Distribution of Four Endangered Panax Species in Middle-and Low-Latitude Regions of China by the Geographic Information System for Global Medicinal Plants (GMPGIS).

PubMed

Du, Zhixia; Wu, Jie; Meng, Xiangxiao; Li, Jinhua; Huang, Linfang

2017-09-28

Global biodiversity is strongly influenced by the decrease in endangered biological species. Predicting the distribution of endangered medicinal plants is necessary for resource conservation. A spatial distribution model-geographic information system for global medicinal plants (GMPGIS)-is used to predict the global potential suitable distribution of four endangered Panax species, including Panax japonicas (T. Nees) C. A. Meyer and Panax japonicas var. major (Burkill) C. Y. Wu & K. M. Feng distributed in low- and middle-latitude, Panax zingiberensis C. Y. Wu & K. M. Feng and Panax stipuleanatus C. T. Tsai & K. M. Feng in low-latitude regions of China based on seven bioclimatic variables and 600 occurrence points. Results indicate that areas of P. japonicus and P. japonicus var. major are 266.29 × 10⁵ and 77.5 × 10⁵ km², respectively, which are mainly distributed in China and America. By contrast, the areas of P. zingiberensis and P. stipuleanatus are 5.09 × 10⁵ and 2.05 × 10⁵ km², respectively, which are mainly distributed in Brazil and China. P. japonicus has the widest distribution among the four species. The data also indicate that the mean temperature of coldest quarter is the most critical factor. This scientific prediction can be used as reference for resource conservation of endangered plants and as a guide to search for endangered species in previously unknown areas.

Current and Future Patterns of Global Marine Mammal Biodiversity

PubMed Central

Kaschner, Kristin; Tittensor, Derek P.; Ready, Jonathan; Gerrodette, Tim; Worm, Boris

2011-01-01

Quantifying the spatial distribution of taxa is an important prerequisite for the preservation of biodiversity, and can provide a baseline against which to measure the impacts of climate change. Here we analyse patterns of marine mammal species richness based on predictions of global distributional ranges for 115 species, including all extant pinnipeds and cetaceans. We used an environmental suitability model specifically designed to address the paucity of distributional data for many marine mammal species. We generated richness patterns by overlaying predicted distributions for all species; these were then validated against sightings data from dedicated long-term surveys in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, the Northeast Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. Model outputs correlated well with empirically observed patterns of biodiversity in all three survey regions. Marine mammal richness was predicted to be highest in temperate waters of both hemispheres with distinct hotspots around New Zealand, Japan, Baja California, the Galapagos Islands, the Southeast Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. We then applied our model to explore potential changes in biodiversity under future perturbations of environmental conditions. Forward projections of biodiversity using an intermediate Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) temperature scenario predicted that projected ocean warming and changes in sea ice cover until 2050 may have moderate effects on the spatial patterns of marine mammal richness. Increases in cetacean richness were predicted above 40° latitude in both hemispheres, while decreases in both pinniped and cetacean richness were expected at lower latitudes. Our results show how species distribution models can be applied to explore broad patterns of marine biodiversity worldwide for taxa for which limited distributional data are available. PMID:21625431

Transient conduction-radiation analysis of an absolute active cavity radiometer using finite elements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahan, J. R.; Kowsary, F.; Tira, N.; Gardiner, B. D.

1987-01-01

A NASA-developed finite element-based model of a generic active cavity radiometer (ACR) has been developed in order to study the dependence on operating temperature of the closed-loop and open-loop transient response of the instrument. Transient conduction within the sensing element is explored, and the transient temperature distribution resulting from the application of a time-varying radiative boundary condition is calculated. The results verify the prediction that operation of an ACR at cryogenic temperatures results in large gains in frequency response.

Potential Environmental and Ecological Effects of Global Climate Change on Venomous Terrestrial Species in the Wilderness.

PubMed

Needleman, Robert K; Neylan, Isabelle P; Erickson, Timothy

2018-06-01

Climate change has been scientifically documented, and its effects on wildlife have been prognosticated. We sought to predict the overall impact of climate change on venomous terrestrial species. We hypothesize that given the close relationship between terrestrial venomous species and climate, a changing global environment may result in increased species migration, geographical redistribution, and longer seasons for envenomation, which would have repercussions on human health. A retrospective analysis of environmental, ecological, and medical literature was performed with a focus on climate change, toxinology, and future modeling specific to venomous terrestrial creatures. Species included venomous reptiles, snakes, arthropods, spiders, and Hymenoptera (ants and bees). Animals that are vectors of hemorrhagic infectious disease (eg, mosquitos, ticks) were excluded. Our review of the literature indicates that changes to climatic norms will have a potentially dramatic effect on terrestrial venomous creatures. Empirical evidence demonstrates that geographic distributions of many species have already shifted due to changing climatic conditions. Given that most terrestrial venomous species are ectotherms closely tied to ambient temperature, and that climate change is shifting temperature zones away from the equator, further significant distribution and population changes should be anticipated. For those species able to migrate to match the changing temperatures, new geographical locations may open. For those species with limited distribution capabilities, the rate of climate change may accelerate faster than species can adapt, causing population declines. Specifically, poisonous snakes and spiders will likely maintain their population numbers but will shift their geographic distribution to traditionally temperate zones more often inhabited by humans. Fire ants and Africanized honey bees are expected to have an expanded range distribution due to predicted warming trends. Human encounters with these types of creatures are likely to increase, resulting in potential human morbidity and mortality. Temperature extremes and changes to climatic norms may have a dramatic effect on venomous terrestrial species. As climate change affects the distribution, populations, and life histories of these organisms, the chance of encounters could be altered, thus affecting human health and the survivability of these creatures. Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sixty-Five Million Years of Change in Temperature and Topography Explain Evolutionary History in Eastern North American Plethodontid Salamanders.

PubMed

Barnes, Richard; Clark, Adam Thomas

2017-07-01

For many taxa and systems, species richness peaks at midelevations. One potential explanation for this pattern is that large-scale changes in climate and geography have, over evolutionary time, selected for traits that are favored under conditions found in contemporary midelevation regions. To test this hypothesis, we use records of historical temperature and topographic changes over the past 65 Myr to construct a general simulation model of plethodontid salamander evolution in eastern North America. We then explore possible mechanisms constraining species to midelevation bands by using the model to predict plethodontid evolutionary history and contemporary geographic distributions. Our results show that models that incorporate both temperature and topographic changes are better able to predict these patterns, suggesting that both processes may have played an important role in driving plethodontid evolution in the region. Additionally, our model (whose annotated source code is included as a supplement) represents a proof of concept to encourage future work that takes advantage of recent advances in computing power to combine models of ecology, evolution, and earth history to better explain the abundance and distribution of species over time.

Incorporation of nonlinear thermorheological complexity into the phenomenologies of structural relaxation.

PubMed

Hodge, Ian M

2005-09-22

A distribution of activation energies is introduced into the nonlinear Adam-Gibbs ("Hodge-Scherer") phenomenology for structural relaxation. The resulting dependencies of the stretched exponential beta parameter on thermodynamic temperature and fictive temperature (nonlinear thermorheological complexity) are derived. No additional adjustable parameters are introduced, and contact is made with the predictions of the random first-order transition theory of aging of Lubchenko and Wolynes [J. Chem. Physics121, 2852 (2004)].

Effect of temperature and nutrients on the growth and development of seedlings of an invasive plant.

PubMed

Skálová, Hana; Moravcová, Lenka; Dixon, Anthony F G; Kindlmann, P; Pyšek, Petr

2015-04-28

Plant species distributions are determined by the response of populations to regional climates; however, little is known about how alien plants that arrive in central Europe from climatically warmer regions cope with the temperature conditions at the early stage of population development. Ambrosia artemisiifolia (common ragweed) is an invasive annual plant causing considerable health and economic problems in Europe. Although climate-based models predict that the whole of the Czech Republic is climatically suitable for this species, it is confined to the warmest regions. To determine the factors possibly responsible for its restricted occurrence, we investigated the effects of temperature and nutrient availability on its seedlings. The plants were cultivated at one of seven temperature regimes ranging from 10 to 34 °C, combined with three nutrient levels. The data on the rate of leaf development were used to calculate the lower developmental threshold (LDT, the temperature, in °C, below which development ceases), the sum of effective temperatures (SET, the amount of heat needed to complete a developmental stage measured in degree days above LDT) and width of the thermal window. The rate of development decreased with decrease in temperature and nutrient supply. Besides this, the decrease in the availability of nutrients resulted in decreased LDT, increased SET and wider thermal window. The dependence of LDT and SET on the availability of nutrients contradicts the concept that thermal constants do not vary. Our results highlight temperature as the main determinant of common ragweed's distribution and identify nutrient availability as a factor that results in the realized niche being smaller than the fundamental niche; both of these need to be taken into account when predicting the future spread of A. artemisiifolia. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Influence of predicted climage change elements on Z. japonica distribution in Washington State

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate change (GCC) is expected to have pronounced impacts on estuarine and marine habitats including sea level rise, increased storm intensity, increased air and water temperatures, changes in upwelling dynamics and ocean acidification. All of these elements are likely ...

Safety of High Speed Magnetic Levitation Transportation Systems : Thermal Effects and Related Safety Issues of Typical Maglev Steel Guideways

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-09-01

This report presents a theoretical analysis predicting the temperature distribution, thermal deflections, and thermal stresses that may occur in typical steel Maglev guideways under the proposed Orlando FL thermal environment. Transient, finite eleme...

An Autonomous Glider Network for the Monterey Bay Predictive Skill Experiment / AOSN-II

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-13

distributed measurements (Figure 1) of temperature and salinity, vertically-averaged velocity, chlorophyll fluorescence , optical backscatter, and PAR. We... Clarence Rowley, and Jerrold Marsden N000140210826 Underwater Glider Dynamics and Control Leonard (PI) N00014-02-1-0861 Autonomous Ocean Sampling

Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.

PubMed

Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri

2011-01-01

1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics is feasible for different populations using a common methodological framework. Our approach was limited to single populations and have neglected population settlement in new favourable habitats or changes in inter-specific relations as a potential response to future climate change. Predictions may be enhanced by merging demographic population models and climatic envelope models. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 British Ecological Society.

User's Manual: Routines for Radiative Heat Transfer and Thermometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Risch, Timothy K.

2016-01-01

Determining the intensity and spectral distribution of radiation emanating from a heated surface has applications in many areas of science and engineering. Areas of research in which the quantification of spectral radiation is used routinely include thermal radiation heat transfer, infrared signature analysis, and radiation thermometry. In the analysis of radiation, it is helpful to be able to predict the radiative intensity and the spectral distribution of the emitted energy. Presented in this report is a set of routines written in Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington) and incorporating functions specific to Microsoft Excel (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington) that are useful for predicting the radiative behavior of heated surfaces. These routines include functions for calculating quantities of primary importance to engineers and scientists. In addition, the routines also provide the capability to use such information to determine surface temperatures from spectral intensities and for calculating the sensitivity of the surface temperature measurements to unknowns in the input parameters.

Recent and projected future climatic suitability of North America for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus.

PubMed

Ogden, Nicholas H; Milka, Radojević; Caminade, Cyril; Gachon, Philippe

2014-12-02

Since the 1980s, populations of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus have become established in south-eastern, eastern and central United States, extending to approximately 40°N. Ae. albopictus is a vector of a wide range of human pathogens including dengue and chikungunya viruses, which are currently emerging in the Caribbean and Central America and posing a threat to North America. The risk of Ae. albopictus expanding its geographic range in North America under current and future climate was assessed using three climatic indicators of Ae. albopictus survival: overwintering conditions (OW), OW combined with annual air temperature (OWAT), and a linear index of precipitation and air temperature suitability expressed through a sigmoidal function (SIG). The capacity of these indicators to predict Ae. albopictus occurrence was evaluated using surveillance data from the United States. Projected future climatic suitability for Ae. albopictus was obtained using output of nine Regional Climate Model experiments (RCMs). OW and OWAT showed >90% specificity and sensitivity in predicting observed Ae. albopictus occurrence and also predicted moderate to high risk of Ae. albopictus invasion in Pacific coastal areas of the Unites States and Canada under current climate. SIG also well predicted observed Ae. albopictus occurrence (ROC area under the curve was 0.92) but predicted wider current climatic suitability in the north-central and north-eastern United States and south-eastern Canada. RCM output projected modest (circa 500 km) future northward range expansion of Ae. albopictus by the 2050s when using OW and OWAT indicators, but greater (600-1000 km) range expansion, particularly in eastern and central Canada, when using the SIG indicator. Variation in future possible distributions of Ae. albopictus was greater amongst the climatic indicators used than amongst the RCM experiments. Current Ae. albopictus distributions were well predicted by simple climatic indicators and northward range expansion was predicted for the future with climate change. However, current and future predicted geographic distributions of Ae. albopictus varied amongst the climatic indicators used. Further field studies are needed to assess which climatic indicator is the most accurate in predicting regions suitable for Ae. albopictus survival in North America.

Extraordinary range expansion in a common bat: the potential roles of climate change and urbanisation.

PubMed

Ancillotto, L; Santini, L; Ranc, N; Maiorano, L; Russo, D

2016-04-01

Urbanisation and climate change are two global change processes that affect animal distributions, posing critical threats to biodiversity. Due to its versatile ecology and synurbic habits, Kuhl's pipistrelle (Pipistrellus kuhlii) offers a unique opportunity to explore the relative effects of climate change and urbanisation on species distributions. In a climate change scenario, this typically Mediterranean species is expected to expand its range in response to increasing temperatures. We collected 25,132 high-resolution occurrence records from P. kuhlii European range between 1980 and 2013 and modelled the species' distribution with a multi-temporal approach, using three bioclimatic variables and one proxy of urbanisation. Temperature in the coldest quarter of the year was the most important factor predicting the presence of P. kuhlii and showed an increasing trend in the study period; mean annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality were also relevant, but to a lower extent. Although urbanisation increased in recently colonised areas, it had little effect on the species' presence predictability. P. kuhlii expanded its geographical range by about 394 % in the last four decades, a process that can be interpreted as a response to climate change.

Extraordinary range expansion in a common bat: the potential roles of climate change and urbanisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ancillotto, L.; Santini, L.; Ranc, N.; Maiorano, L.; Russo, D.

2016-04-01

Urbanisation and climate change are two global change processes that affect animal distributions, posing critical threats to biodiversity. Due to its versatile ecology and synurbic habits, Kuhl's pipistrelle ( Pipistrellus kuhlii) offers a unique opportunity to explore the relative effects of climate change and urbanisation on species distributions. In a climate change scenario, this typically Mediterranean species is expected to expand its range in response to increasing temperatures. We collected 25,132 high-resolution occurrence records from P. kuhlii European range between 1980 and 2013 and modelled the species' distribution with a multi-temporal approach, using three bioclimatic variables and one proxy of urbanisation. Temperature in the coldest quarter of the year was the most important factor predicting the presence of P. kuhlii and showed an increasing trend in the study period; mean annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality were also relevant, but to a lower extent. Although urbanisation increased in recently colonised areas, it had little effect on the species' presence predictability. P. kuhlii expanded its geographical range by about 394 % in the last four decades, a process that can be interpreted as a response to climate change.

Brine Pockets in the Icy Shell on Europa: Distribution, Chemistry, and Habitability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zolotov, M. Yu; Shock, E. L.; Barr, A. C.; Pappalardo, R. T.

2004-01-01

On Earth, sea ice is rich in brine, salt, and gas inclusions that form through capturing of seawater during ice formation. Cooling of the ice over time leads to sequential freezing of captured sea-water, precipitation of salts, exsolution of gases, and formation of brine channels and pockets. Distribution and composition of brines in sea ice depend on the rate of ice formation, vertical temperature gradient, and the age of the ice. With aging, the abundance of brine pockets decreases through downward migration. De- spite low temperatures and elevated salinities, brines in sea ice provide a habitat for photosynthetic and chemosynthetic organisms. On Europa, brine pockets and channels could exist in the icy shell that may be from a few km to a few tens of km thick and is probably underlain by a water ocean. If the icy shell is relatively thick, convection could develop, affecting the temperature pattern in the ice. To predict the distribution and chemistry of brine pockets in the icy shell we have combined numerical models of the temperature distribution within a convecting shell, a model for oceanic chemistry, and a model for freezing of Europan oceanic water. Possible effects of brine and gas inclusions on ice rheology and tectonics are discussed.

Stem mortality in surface fires: Part II, experimental methods for characterizing the thermal response of tree stems to heating by fires

Treesearch

D. M. Jimenez; B. W. Butler; J. Reardon

2003-01-01

Current methods for predicting fire-induced plant mortality in shrubs and trees are largely empirical. These methods are not readily linked to duff burning, soil heating, and surface fire behavior models. In response to the need for a physics-based model of this process, a detailed model for predicting the temperature distribution through a tree stem as a function of...

Coupling Behavior and Vertical Distribution of Pteropods in Coastal Waters using Data from the Video Plankton Recorder

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-09-30

Coupling Behavior and Vertical Distribution of Pteropods in Coastal Waters using Data from the Video Plankton Recorder Scott M. Gallager Biology...the pteropod Limacina retroversa (Pteropoda, Thecosomata) over its ontogeny is predictable as a function of light, temperature, salinity, food...images from the mesocosms using the mini-VPR are being used to infer behavior of individual pteropods . Third, a random walk turbulence model with

Effects of climate and atmospheric CO2 partial pressure on the global distribution of C4 grasses: present, past, and future.

PubMed

Collatz, G James; Berry, Joseph A; Clark, James S

1998-05-01

C 4 photosynthetic physiologies exhibit fundamentally different responses to temperature and atmospheric CO 2 partial pressures (pCO 2 ) compared to the evolutionarily more primitive C 3 type. All else being equal, C 4 plants tend to be favored over C 3 plants in warm humid climates and, conversely, C 3 plants tend to be favored over C 4 plants in cool climates. Empirical observations supported by a photosynthesis model predict the existence of a climatological crossover temperature above which C 4 species have a carbon gain advantage and below which C 3 species are favored. Model calculations and analysis of current plant distribution suggest that this pCO 2 -dependent crossover temperature is approximated by a mean temperature of 22°C for the warmest month at the current pCO 2 (35 Pa). In addition to favorable temperatures, C 4 plants require sufficient precipitation during the warm growing season. C 4 plants which are predominantly graminoids of short stature can be competitively excluded by trees (nearly all C 3 plants) - regardless of the photosynthetic superiority of the C 4 pathway - in regions otherwise favorable for C 4 . To construct global maps of the distribution of C 4 grasses for current, past and future climate scenarios, we make use of climatological data sets which provide estimates of the mean monthly temperature to classify the globe into areas which should favor C 4 photosynthesis during at least 1 month of the year. This area is further screened by excluding areas where precipitation is <25 mm per month during the warm season and by selecting areas classified as grasslands (i.e., excluding areas dominated by woody vegetation) according to a global vegetation map. Using this approach, grasslands of the world are designated as C 3 , C 4 , and mixed under current climate and pCO 2 . Published floristic studies were used to test the accuracy of these predictions in many regions of the world, and agreement with observations was generally good. We then make use of this protocol to examine changes in the global abundance of C 4 grasses in the past and the future using plausible estimates for the climates and pCO 2 . When pCO 2 is lowered to pre-industrial levels, C 4 grasses expanded their range into large areas now classified as C 3 grasslands, especially in North America and Eurasia. During the last glacial maximum (∼18 ka BP) when the climate was cooler and pCO 2 was about 20 Pa, our analysis predicts substantial expansion of C 4 vegetation - particularly in Asia, despite cooler temperatures. Continued use of fossil fuels is expected to result in double the current pCO 2 by sometime in the next century, with some associated climate warming. Our analysis predicts a substantial reduction in the area of C 4 grasses under these conditions. These reductions from the past and into the future are based on greater stimulation of C 3 photosynthetic efficiency by higher pCO 2 than inhibition by higher temperatures. The predictions are testable through large-scale controlled growth studies and analysis of stable isotopes and other data from regions where large changes are predicted to have occurred.

A numerical study of diurnally varying surface temperature on flow patterns and pollutant dispersion in street canyons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Zijing; Dong, Jingliang; Xiao, Yimin; Tu, Jiyuan

2015-03-01

The impacts of the diurnal variation of surface temperature on street canyon flow pattern and pollutant dispersion are investigated based on a two-dimensional street canyon model under different thermal stratifications. Uneven distributed street temperature conditions and a user-defined wall function representing the heat transfer between the air and the street canyon are integrated into the current numerical model. The prediction accuracy of this model is successfully validated against a published wind tunnel experiment. Then, a series of numerical simulations representing four time scenarios (Morning, Afternoon, Noon and Night) are performed at different Bulk Richardson number (Rb). The results demonstrate that uneven distributed street temperature conditions significantly alters street canyon flow structure and pollutant dispersion characteristics compared with conventional uniform street temperature assumption, especially for the morning event. Moreover, air flow patterns and pollutant dispersion are greatly influenced by diurnal variation of surface temperature under unstable stratification conditions. Furthermore, the residual pollutant in near-ground-zone decreases as Rb increases in noon, afternoon and night events under all studied stability conditions.

Climate-Induced Range Shifts and Possible Hybridisation Consequences in Insects

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Guillén, Rosa Ana; Muñoz, Jesús; Rodríguez-Tapia, Gerardo; Feria Arroyo, T. Patricia; Córdoba-Aguilar, Alex

2013-01-01

Many ectotherms have altered their geographic ranges in response to rising global temperatures. Current range shifts will likely increase the sympatry and hybridisation between recently diverged species. Here we predict future sympatric distributions and risk of hybridisation in seven Mediterranean ischnurid damselfly species (I. elegans, I. fountaineae, I. genei, I. graellsii, I. pumilio, I. saharensis and I. senegalensis). We used a maximum entropy modelling technique to predict future potential distribution under four different Global Circulation Models and a realistic emissions scenario of climate change. We carried out a comprehensive data compilation of reproductive isolation (habitat, temporal, sexual, mechanical and gametic) between the seven studied species. Combining the potential distribution and data of reproductive isolation at different instances (habitat, temporal, sexual, mechanical and gametic), we infer the risk of hybridisation in these insects. Our findings showed that all but I. graellsii will decrease in distributional extent and all species except I. senegalensis are predicted to have northern range shifts. Models of potential distribution predicted an increase of the likely overlapping ranges for 12 species combinations, out of a total of 42 combinations, 10 of which currently overlap. Moreover, the lack of complete reproductive isolation and the patterns of hybridisation detected between closely related ischnurids, could lead to local extinctions of native species if the hybrids or the introgressed colonising species become more successful. PMID:24260411

Thermo-Mechanical and Electrochemistry Modeling of Planar SOFC Stacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khaleel, Mohammad A.; Recknagle, Kurtis P.; Lin, Zijing

2002-12-01

Modeling activities at PNNL support design and development of modular SOFC systems. The SOFC stack modeling capability at PNNL has developed to a level at which planar stack designs can be compared and optimized for startup performance. Thermal-fluids and stress modeling is being performed to predict the transient temperature distribution and to determine the thermal stresses based on the temperature distribution. Current efforts also include the development of a model for calculating current density, cell voltage, and heat production in SOFC stacks with hydrogen or other fuels. The model includes the heat generation from both Joule heating and chemical reactions.more » It also accounts for species production and destruction via mass balance. The model is being linked to the finite element code MARC to allow for the evaluation of temperatures and stresses during steady state operations.« less

The study on the interdependence of spray characteristics and evaporation history of fuel spray in high temperature air crossflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, J. Y.; Chin, J. S.

1986-06-01

A numerical calculation method is used to predict the variation of the characteristics of fuel spray moving in a high temperature air crossflow, mainly, Sauter mean diameter SMD, droplet size distribution index N of Rosin-Rammler distribution and evaporation percentage changing with downstream distance X from the nozzle. The effect of droplet heat-up period evaporation process and forced convection are taken into full account; thus, the calculation model is a very good approximation to the process of spray evaporation in a practical combustor, such as ramjet, aero-gas turbine, liquid propellant rocket, diesel and other liquid fuel-powered combustion devices. The changes of spray characteristics N, SMD and spray evaporation percentage with air velocity, pressure, temperature, fuel injection velocity, and the initial spray parameters are presented.

Heat generation in Aircraft tires under yawed rolling conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dodge, Richard N.; Clark, Samuel K.

1987-01-01

An analytical model was developed for approximating the internal temperature distribution in an aircraft tire operating under conditions of yawed rolling. The model employs an assembly of elements to represent the tire cross section and treats the heat generated within the tire as a function of the change in strain energy associated with predicted tire flexure. Special contact scrubbing terms are superimposed on the symmetrical free rolling model to account for the slip during yawed rolling. An extensive experimental program was conducted to verify temperatures predicted from the analytical model. Data from this program were compared with calculation over a range of operating conditions, namely, vertical deflection, inflation pressure, yaw angle, and direction of yaw. Generally the analytical model predicted overall trends well and correlated reasonably well with individual measurements at locations throughout the cross section.

Energy spectra of plasma sheet ions and electrons from about 50 eV/e to about 1 MeV during plamsa temperature transitions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christon, S. P.; Mitchell, D. G.; Williams, D. J.; Frank, L. A.; Huang, C. Y.; Eastman, T. E.

1988-01-01

ISEE-1 charged-particle measurements obtained during eight plasma temperature transitions (PTTs) in 1978-1979 are compiled in tables and graphs and analyzed in detail, comparing the ion and electron differential energy spectra with the predictions of theoretical models. PTTs are defined as approximately 1-h periods of low bulk plasma velocity and steadily increasing or decreasing thermal energy. A Maxwellian distribution is found to be inadequate in describing the PTT energy spectra, but velocity-exponential and kappa distributions are both successful, the latter especially at higher energies. The power-law index kappa varies from PTT to PTT, but the high-energy spectral index and overall shape of the distribution remain constant during a PTT; both spatial and temporal effects are observed.

Nocturnal Near-Surface Temperature, but not Flow Dynamics, can be Predicted by Microtopography in a Mid-Range Mountain Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfister, Lena; Sigmund, Armin; Olesch, Johannes; Thomas, Christoph K.

2017-11-01

We investigate nocturnal flow dynamics and temperature behaviour near the surface of a 170-m long gentle slope in a mid-range mountain valley. In contrast to many existing studies focusing on locations with significant topographic variations, gentle slopes cover a greater spatial extent of the Earth's surface. Air temperatures were measured using the high-resolution distributed-temperature-sensing method within a two-dimensional fibre-optic array in the lowest metre above the surface. The main objectives are to characterize the spatio-temporal patterns in the near-surface temperature and flow dynamics, and quantify their responses to the microtopography and land cover. For the duration of the experiment, including even clear-sky nights with weak winds and strong radiative forcing, the classical cold-air drainage predicted by theory could not be detected. In contrast, we show that the airflow for the two dominant flow modes originates non-locally. The most abundant flow mode is characterized by vertically-decoupled layers featuring a near-surface flow perpendicular to the slope and strong stable stratification, which contradicts the expectation of a gravity-driven downslope flow of locally produced cold air. Differences in microtopography and land cover clearly affect spatio-temporal temperature perturbations. The second most abundant flow mode is characterized by strong mixing, leading to vertical coupling with airflow directed down the local slope. Here variations of microtopography and land cover lead to negligible near-surface temperature perturbations. We conclude that spatio-temporal temperature perturbations, but not flow dynamics, can be predicted by microtopography, which complicates the prediction of advective-heat components and the existence and dynamics of cold-air pools in gently sloped terrain in the absence of observations.

Glass transition temperature and topological constraints of sodium borophosphate glass-forming liquids.

PubMed

Jiang, Qi; Zeng, Huidan; Liu, Zhao; Ren, Jing; Chen, Guorong; Wang, Zhaofeng; Sun, Luyi; Zhao, Donghui

2013-09-28

Sodium borophosphate glasses exhibit intriguing mixed network former effect, with the nonlinear compositional dependence of their glass transition temperature as one of the most typical examples. In this paper, we establish the widely applicable topological constraint model of sodium borophosphate mixed network former glasses to explain the relationship between the internal structure and nonlinear changes of glass transition temperature. The application of glass topology network was discussed in detail in terms of the unified methodology for the quantitative distribution of each coordinated boron and phosphorus units and glass transition temperature dependence of atomic constraints. An accurate prediction of composition scaling of the glass transition temperature was obtained based on topological constraint model.

Predicting the Distribution of Vibrio spp. in the Chesapeake Bay: A Vibrio cholerae Case Study

PubMed Central

Magny, Guillaume Constantin de; Long, Wen; Brown, Christopher W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Huq, Anwar; Murtugudde, Raghu; Colwell, Rita R.

2010-01-01

Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of cholera, is a naturally occurring inhabitant of the Chesapeake Bay and serves as a predictor for other clinically important vibrios, including Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio vulnificus. A system was constructed to predict the likelihood of the presence of V. cholerae in surface waters of the Chesapeake Bay, with the goal to provide forecasts of the occurrence of this and related pathogenic Vibrio spp. Prediction was achieved by driving an available multivariate empirical habitat model estimating the probability of V. cholerae within a range of temperatures and salinities in the Bay, with hydrodynamically generated predictions of ambient temperature and salinity. The experimental predictions provided both an improved understanding of the in situ variability of V. cholerae, including identification of potential hotspots of occurrence, and usefulness as an early warning system. With further development of the system, prediction of the probability of the occurrence of related pathogenic vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay, notably V. parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus, will be possible, as well as its transport to any geographical location where sufficient relevant data are available. PMID:20145974

PROJECTED CLIMATE-INDUCED FAUNAL CHANGE IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can e...

Predicting the size and elevation of future mountain forests: Scaling macroclimate to microclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cory, S. T.; Smith, W. K.

2017-12-01

Global climate change is predicted to alter continental scale macroclimate and regional mesoclimate. Yet, it is at the microclimate scale that organisms interact with their physiochemical environments. Thus, to predict future changes in the biota such as biodiversity and distribution patterns, a quantitative coupling between macro-, meso-, and microclimatic parameters must be developed. We are evaluating the impact of climate change on the size and elevational distribution of conifer mountain forests by determining the microclimate necessary for new seedling survival at the elevational boundaries of the forest. This initial life stage, only a few centimeters away from the soil surface, appears to be the bottleneck to treeline migration and the expansion or contraction of a conifer mountain forest. For example, survival at the alpine treeline is extremely rare and appears to be limited to facilitated microsites with low sky exposure. Yet, abundant mesoclimate data from standard weather stations have rarely been scaled to the microclimate level. Our research is focusing on an empirical downscaling approach linking microclimate measurements at favorable seedling microsites to the meso- and macro-climate levels. Specifically, mesoclimate values of air temperature, relative humidity, incident sunlight, and wind speed from NOAA NCEI weather stations can be extrapolated to the microsite level that is physiologically relevant for seedling survival. Data will be presented showing a strong correlation between incident sunlight measured at 2-m and seedling microclimate, despite large differences from seedling/microsite temperatures. Our downscaling approach will ultimately enable predictions of microclimate from the much more abundant mesoclimate data available from a variety of sources. Thus, scaling from macro- to meso- to microclimate will be possible, enabling predictions of climate change models to be translated to the microsite level. This linkage between measurement scales will enable a more precise prediction of the effects of climate change on the future extent and elevational distribution of our mountain forests and an accompanying array of critical ecosystem services.

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places

PubMed Central

Julio Camarero, J.; Gazol, Antonio; Sancho-Benages, Santiago; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin (‘rear edge’) of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species’ European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs). Methods A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits. Key Results The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen. Conclusions The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern ‘rear edge’, in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios. PMID:26292992

An experimental study and finite element modeling of head and neck cooling for brain hypothermia.

PubMed

Li, Hui; Chen, Roland K; Tang, Yong; Meurer, William; Shih, Albert J

2018-01-01

Reducing brain temperature by head and neck cooling is likely to be the protective treatment for humans when subjects to sudden cardiac arrest. This study develops the experimental validation model and finite element modeling (FEM) to study the head and neck cooling separately, which can induce therapeutic hypothermia focused on the brain. Anatomically accurate geometries based on CT images of the skull and carotid artery are utilized to find the 3D geometry for FEM to analyze the temperature distributions and 3D-printing to build the physical model for experiment. The results show that FEM predicted and experimentally measured temperatures have good agreement, which can be used to predict the temporal and spatial temperature distributions of the tissue and blood during the head and neck cooling process. Effects of boundary condition, perfusion, blood flow rate, and size of cooling area are studied. For head cooling, the cooling penetration depth is greatly depending on the blood perfusion in the brain. In the normal blood flow condition, the neck internal carotid artery temperature is decreased only by about 0.13°C after 60min of hypothermia. In an ischemic (low blood flow rate) condition, such temperature can be decreased by about 1.0°C. In conclusion, decreasing the blood perfusion and metabolic reduction factor could be more beneficial to cool the core zone. The results also suggest that more SBC researches should be explored, such as the optimization of simulation and experimental models, and to perform the experiment on human subjects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial interpolation of monthly mean air temperature data for Latvia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aniskevich, Svetlana

2016-04-01

Temperature data with high spatial resolution are essential for appropriate and qualitative local characteristics analysis. Nowadays the surface observation station network in Latvia consists of 22 stations recording daily air temperature, thus in order to analyze very specific and local features in the spatial distribution of temperature values in the whole Latvia, a high quality spatial interpolation method is required. Until now inverse distance weighted interpolation was used for the interpolation of air temperature data at the meteorological and climatological service of the Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre, and no additional topographical information was taken into account. This method made it almost impossible to reasonably assess the actual temperature gradient and distribution between the observation points. During this project a new interpolation method was applied and tested, considering auxiliary explanatory parameters. In order to spatially interpolate monthly mean temperature values, kriging with external drift was used over a grid of 1 km resolution, which contains parameters such as 5 km mean elevation, continentality, distance from the Gulf of Riga and the Baltic Sea, biggest lakes and rivers, population density. As the most appropriate of these parameters, based on a complex situation analysis, mean elevation and continentality was chosen. In order to validate interpolation results, several statistical indicators of the differences between predicted values and the values actually observed were used. Overall, the introduced model visually and statistically outperforms the previous interpolation method and provides a meteorologically reasonable result, taking into account factors that influence the spatial distribution of the monthly mean temperature.

Geographic distributions of Idh-1 alleles in a cricket are linked to differential enzyme kinetic performance across thermal environments

PubMed Central

Huestis, Diana L; Oppert, Brenda; Marshall, Jeremy L

2009-01-01

Background Geographic clines within species are often interpreted as evidence of adaptation to varying environmental conditions. However, clines can also result from genetic drift, and these competing hypotheses must therefore be tested empirically. The striped ground cricket, Allonemobius socius, is widely-distributed in the eastern United States, and clines have been documented in both life-history traits and genetic alleles. One clinally-distributed locus, isocitrate dehydrogenase (Idh-1), has been shown previously to exhibit significant correlations between allele frequencies and environmental conditions (temperature and rainfall). Further, an empirical study revealed a significant genotype-by-environmental interaction (GxE) between Idh-1 genotype and temperature which affected fitness. Here, we use enzyme kinetics to further explore GxE between Idh-1 genotype and temperature, and test the predictions of kinetic activity expected under drift or selection. Results We found significant GxE between temperature and three enzyme kinetic parameters, providing further evidence that the natural distributions of Idh-1 allele frequencies in A. socius are maintained by natural selection. Differences in enzyme kinetic activity across temperatures also mirror many of the geographic patterns observed in allele frequencies. Conclusion This study further supports the hypothesis that the natural distribution of Idh-1 alleles in A. socius is driven by natural selection on differential enzymatic performance. This example is one of several which clearly document a functional basis for both the maintenance of common alleles and observed clines in allele frequencies, and provides further evidence for the non-neutrality of some allozyme alleles. PMID:19460149

Exposure to solar radiation drives organismal vulnerability to climate: Evidence from an intertidal limpet.

PubMed

Chapperon, Coraline; Volkenborn, Nils; Clavier, Jacques; Séité, Sarah; Seabra, Rui; Lima, Fernando P

2016-04-01

Understanding the physiological abilities of organisms to cope with heat stress is critical for predictions of species' distributions in response to climate change. We investigated physiological responses (respiration and heart beat rate) of the ectotherm limpet Patella vulgata to heat stress events during emersion and the role of seasonal and microclimatic acclimatization for individual thermal tolerance limits. Individuals were collected from 5 microhabitats characterized by different exposure to solar radiation in the high intertidal zone of a semi-exposed rocky shore in winter and summer of 2014. Upper thermal tolerance limits (heat coma temperatures - HCTs, and heart rate Arrhenius break temperatures - ABTs) were determined for individuals from each microhabitat in both seasons under laboratory conditions. While we found a clear seasonal acclimatization, i.e., higher HCTs and ABTs in summer than in winter, we did not find evidence for microhabitat-specific responses that would suggest microclimatic acclimatization. However, operative limpet temperatures derived from in-situ temperature measurements suggest that individuals from sun exposed microhabitats have a much narrower thermal safety margins than those from less exposed surfaces or within crevices. Microhabitat specific thermal safety margins caused by high thermal heterogeneity at small spatial scales and the lack of short term acclimatization will likely shape small scale distribution patterns of intertidal species in response to the predicted increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A molecular dynamics approach for predicting the glass transition temperature and plasticization effect in amorphous pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Gupta, Jasmine; Nunes, Cletus; Jonnalagadda, Sriramakamal

2013-11-04

The objectives of this study were as follows: (i) To develop an in silico technique, based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, to predict glass transition temperatures (Tg) of amorphous pharmaceuticals. (ii) To computationally study the effect of plasticizer on Tg. (iii) To investigate the intermolecular interactions using radial distribution function (RDF). Amorphous sucrose and water were selected as the model compound and plasticizer, respectively. MD simulations were performed using COMPASS force field and isothermal-isobaric ensembles. The specific volumes of amorphous cells were computed in the temperature range of 440-265 K. The characteristic "kink" observed in volume-temperature curves, in conjunction with regression analysis, defined the Tg. The MD computed Tg values were 367 K, 352 K and 343 K for amorphous sucrose containing 0%, 3% and 5% w/w water, respectively. The MD technique thus effectively simulated the plasticization effect of water; and the corresponding Tg values were in reasonable agreement with theoretical models and literature reports. The RDF measurements revealed strong hydrogen bond interactions between sucrose hydroxyl oxygens and water oxygen. Steric effects led to weak interactions between sucrose acetal oxygens and water oxygen. MD is thus a powerful predictive tool for probing temperature and water effects on the stability of amorphous systems during drug development.

Thermal reaction norms and the scale of temperature variation: latitudinal vulnerability of intertidal nacellid limpets to climate change.

PubMed

Morley, Simon A; Martin, Stephanie M; Day, Robert W; Ericson, Jess; Lai, Chien-Houng; Lamare, Miles; Tan, Koh-Siang; Thorne, Michael A S; Peck, Lloyd S

2012-01-01

The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna), New Zealand (Cellana ornata), Australia (C. tramoserica) and Singapore (C. radiata), were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of "duration tenacity", which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (T(opt)) increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna) to 14.3°C (C. ornata) to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica) to 27.6°C (C. radiata). The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CT(max) and T(opt) over habitat temperature). However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their environment could markedly influence their future distributions.

Thermal Reaction Norms and the Scale of Temperature Variation: Latitudinal Vulnerability of Intertidal Nacellid Limpets to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Morley, Simon A.; Martin, Stephanie M.; Day, Robert W.; Ericson, Jess; Lai, Chien-Houng; Lamare, Miles; Tan, Koh-Siang; Thorne, Michael A. S.; Peck, Lloyd S.

2012-01-01

The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna), New Zealand (Cellana ornata), Australia (C. tramoserica) and Singapore (C. radiata), were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of “duration tenacity”, which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (Topt) increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna) to 14.3°C (C. ornata) to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica) to 27.6°C (C. radiata). The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CTmax and Topt over habitat temperature). However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their environment could markedly influence their future distributions. PMID:23285194

Heat Flow In Cylindrical Bodies During Laser Surface Transformation Hardening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandven, Ole A.

1980-01-01

A mathematical model for the transient heat flow in cylindrical specimens is presented. The model predicts the temperature distribution in the vicinity of a moving ring-shaped laser spot around the periphery of the outer surface of a cylinder, or the inner surface of a hollow cylinder. It can be used to predict the depth of case in laser surface transformation hardening. The validity of the model is tested against experimental results obtained on SAE 4140 steel.

Optimizing heat shock protein expression induced by prostate cancer laser therapy through predictive computational models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rylander, Marissa N.; Feng, Yusheng; Zhang, Yongjie; Bass, Jon; Stafford, Roger J.; Hazle, John D.; Diller, Kenneth R.

2006-07-01

Thermal therapy efficacy can be diminished due to heat shock protein (HSP) induction in regions of a tumor where temperatures are insufficient to coagulate proteins. HSP expression enhances tumor cell viability and imparts resistance to chemotherapy and radiation treatments, which are generally employed in conjunction with hyperthermia. Therefore, an understanding of the thermally induced HSP expression within the targeted tumor must be incorporated into the treatment plan to optimize the thermal dose delivery and permit prediction of the overall tissue response. A treatment planning computational model capable of predicting the temperature, HSP27 and HSP70 expression, and damage fraction distributions associated with laser heating in healthy prostate tissue and tumors is presented. Measured thermally induced HSP27 and HSP70 expression kinetics and injury data for normal and cancerous prostate cells and prostate tumors are employed to create the first HSP expression predictive model and formulate an Arrhenius damage model. The correlation coefficients between measured and model predicted temperature, HSP27, and HSP70 were 0.98, 0.99, and 0.99, respectively, confirming the accuracy of the model. Utilization of the treatment planning model in the design of prostate cancer thermal therapies can enable optimization of the treatment outcome by controlling HSP expression and injury.

Estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Childress, Evan; Letcher, Benjamin H.

2017-01-01

Estimating thermal performance of organisms is critical for understanding population distributions and dynamics and predicting responses to climate change. Typically, performance curves are estimated using laboratory studies to isolate temperature effects, but other abiotic and biotic factors influence temperature-performance relationships in nature reducing these models' predictive ability. We present a model for estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations that includes environmental and individual variation. We fit the model in a Bayesian framework using MCMC sampling, which allowed for estimation of unobserved latent growth while propagating uncertainty. Fitting the model to simulated data varying in sampling design and parameter values demonstrated that the parameter estimates were accurate, precise, and unbiased. Fitting the model to individual growth data from wild trout revealed high out-of-sample predictive ability relative to laboratory-derived models, which produced more biased predictions for field performance. The field-based estimates of thermal maxima were lower than those based on laboratory studies. Under warming temperature scenarios, field-derived performance models predicted stronger declines in body size than laboratory-derived models, suggesting that laboratory-based models may underestimate climate change effects. The presented model estimates true, realized field performance, avoiding assumptions required for applying laboratory-based models to field performance, which should improve estimates of performance under climate change and advance thermal ecology.

Blue and Fin Whale Habitat Modeling from Long-Term Year-Round Passive Acoustic Data from the Southern California Bight

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

be used for habitat modeling include sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), chlorophyll a concentration, and primary production...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Blue and Fin Whale Habitat Modeling from Long-Term Year...predictive, year-round habitat models of the presence of calling blue and fin whales in the Southern California Bight, to facilitate Navy’s operational

Modeling the growth kinetics of Bacillus cereus as a function of temperature, pH, sodium lactate and sodium chloride concentrations.

PubMed

Olmez, Hülya Kaptan; Aran, Necla

2005-02-01

Mathematical models describing the growth kinetic parameters (lag phase duration and growth rate) of Bacillus cereus as a function of temperature, pH, sodium lactate and sodium chloride concentrations were obtained in this study. In order to get a residual distribution closer to a normal distribution, the natural logarithm of the growth kinetic parameters were used in modeling. For reasons of parsimony, the polynomial models were reduced to contain only the coefficients significant at a level of p

Thermal-Structural Analysis of PICA Tiles for Solar Tower Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agrawal, Parul; Empey, Daniel M.; Squire, Thomas H.

2009-01-01

Thermal protection materials used in spacecraft heatshields are subjected to severe thermal and mechanical loading environments during re-entry into earth atmosphere. In order to investigate the reliability of PICA tiles in the presence of high thermal gradients as well as mechanical loads, the authors designed and conducted solar-tower tests. This paper presents the design and analysis work for this tests series. Coupled non-linear thermal-mechanical finite element analyses was conducted to estimate in-depth temperature distribution and stress contours for various cases. The first set of analyses performed on isolated PICA tile showed that stresses generated during the tests were below the PICA allowable limit and should not lead to any catastrophic failure during the test. The tests results were consistent with analytical predictions. The temperature distribution and magnitude of the measured strains were also consistent with predicted values. The second test series is designed to test the arrayed PICA tiles with various gap-filler materials. A nonlinear contact method is used to model the complex geometry with various tiles. The analyses for these coupons predict the stress contours in PICA and inside gap fillers. Suitable mechanical loads for this architecture will be predicted, which can be applied during the test to exceed the allowable limits and demonstrate failure modes. Thermocouple and strain-gauge data obtained from the solar tower tests will be used for subsequent analyses and validation of FEM models.

Improved CFD Model to Predict Flow and Temperature Distributions in a Blast Furnace Hearth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komiyama, Keisuke M.; Guo, Bao-Yu; Zughbi, Habib; Zulli, Paul; Yu, Ai-Bing

2014-10-01

The campaign life of a blast furnace is limited by the erosion of hearth refractories. Flow and temperature distributions of the liquid iron have a significant influence on the erosion mechanism. In this work, an improved three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics model is developed to simulate the flow and heat transfer phenomena in the hearth of BlueScope's Port Kembla No. 5 Blast Furnace. Model improvements feature more justified input parameters in turbulence modeling, buoyancy modeling, wall boundary conditions, material properties, and modeling of the solidification of iron. The model is validated by comparing the calculated temperatures with the thermocouple data available, where agreements are established within ±3 pct. The flow distribution in the hearth is discussed for intact and eroded hearth profiles, for sitting and floating coke bed states. It is shown that natural convection affects the flow in several ways: for example, the formation of (a) stagnant zones preventing hearth bottom from eroding or (b) the downward jetting of molten liquid promoting side wall erosion, or (c) at times, a vortex-like peripheral flow, promoting the "elephant foot" type erosion. A significant influence of coke bed permeability on the macroscopic flow pattern and the refractory temperature is observed.

Numerical modeling of laser assisted tape winding process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaami, Amin; Baran, Ismet; Akkerman, Remko

2017-10-01

Laser assisted tape winding (LATW) has become more and more popular way of producing new thermoplastic products such as ultra-deep sea water riser, gas tanks, structural parts for aerospace applications. Predicting the temperature in LATW has been a source of great interest since the temperature at nip-point plays a key role for mechanical interface performance. Modeling the LATW process includes several challenges such as the interaction of optics and heat transfer. In the current study, numerical modeling of the optical behavior of laser radiation on circular surfaces is investigated based on a ray tracing and non-specular reflection model. The non-specular reflection is implemented considering the anisotropic reflective behavior of the fiber-reinforced thermoplastic tape using a bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF). The proposed model in the present paper includes a three-dimensional circular geometry, in which the effects of reflection from different ranges of the circular surface as well as effect of process parameters on temperature distribution are studied. The heat transfer model is constructed using a fully implicit method. The effect of process parameters on the nip-point temperature is examined. Furthermore, several laser distributions including Gaussian and linear are examined which has not been considered in literature up to now.

Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gammans, Matthew; Mérel, Pierre; Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel

2017-05-01

In several world regions, climate change is predicted to negatively affect crop productivity. The recent statistical yield literature emphasizes the importance of flexibly accounting for the distribution of growing-season temperature to better represent the effects of warming on crop yields. We estimate a flexible statistical yield model using a long panel from France to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on wheat and barley yields. Winter varieties appear sensitive to extreme cold after planting. All yields respond negatively to an increase in spring-summer temperatures and are a decreasing function of precipitation about historical precipitation levels. Crop yields are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change under a wide range of climate models and emissions scenarios. Under warming scenario RCP8.5 and holding growing areas and technology constant, our model ensemble predicts a 21.0% decline in winter wheat yield, a 17.3% decline in winter barley yield, and a 33.6% decline in spring barley yield by the end of the century. Uncertainty from climate projections dominates uncertainty from the statistical model. Finally, our model predicts that continuing technology trends would counterbalance most of the effects of climate change.

Ecological Niche Modeling for the Prediction of the Geographic Distribution of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Tunisia

PubMed Central

Chalghaf, Bilel; Chlif, Sadok; Mayala, Benjamin; Ghawar, Wissem; Bettaieb, Jihène; Harrabi, Myriam; Benie, Goze Bertin; Michael, Edwin; Salah, Afif Ben

2016-01-01

Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a very complex disease involving multiple factors that limit its emergence and spatial distribution. Prediction of cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemics in Tunisia remains difficult because most of the epidemiological tools used so far are descriptive in nature and mainly focus on a time dimension. The purpose of this work is to predict the potential geographic distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi and zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania major in Tunisia using Grinnellian ecological niche modeling. We attempted to assess the importance of environmental factors influencing the potential distribution of P. papatasi and cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Vectors were trapped in central Tunisia during the transmission season using CDC light traps (John W. Hock Co., Gainesville, FL). A global positioning system was used to record the geographical coordinates of vector occurrence points and households tested positive for cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Nine environmental layers were used as predictor variables to model the P. papatasi geographical distribution and five variables were used to model the L. major potential distribution. Ecological niche modeling was used to relate known species' occurrence points to values of environmental factors for these same points to predict the presence of the species in unsampled regions based on the value of the predictor variables. Rainfall and temperature contributed the most as predictors for sand flies and human case distributions. Ecological niche modeling anticipated the current distribution of P. papatasi with the highest suitability for species occurrence in the central and southeastern part of Tunisian. Furthermore, our study demonstrated that governorates of Gafsa, Sidi Bouzid, and Kairouan are at highest epidemic risk. PMID:26856914

Ecological Niche Modeling for the Prediction of the Geographic Distribution of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Tunisia.

PubMed

Chalghaf, Bilel; Chlif, Sadok; Mayala, Benjamin; Ghawar, Wissem; Bettaieb, Jihène; Harrabi, Myriam; Benie, Goze Bertin; Michael, Edwin; Salah, Afif Ben

2016-04-01

Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a very complex disease involving multiple factors that limit its emergence and spatial distribution. Prediction of cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemics in Tunisia remains difficult because most of the epidemiological tools used so far are descriptive in nature and mainly focus on a time dimension. The purpose of this work is to predict the potential geographic distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi and zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania major in Tunisia using Grinnellian ecological niche modeling. We attempted to assess the importance of environmental factors influencing the potential distribution of P. papatasi and cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Vectors were trapped in central Tunisia during the transmission season using CDC light traps (John W. Hock Co., Gainesville, FL). A global positioning system was used to record the geographical coordinates of vector occurrence points and households tested positive for cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Nine environmental layers were used as predictor variables to model the P. papatasi geographical distribution and five variables were used to model the L. major potential distribution. Ecological niche modeling was used to relate known species' occurrence points to values of environmental factors for these same points to predict the presence of the species in unsampled regions based on the value of the predictor variables. Rainfall and temperature contributed the most as predictors for sand flies and human case distributions. Ecological niche modeling anticipated the current distribution of P. papatasi with the highest suitability for species occurrence in the central and southeastern part of Tunisian. Furthermore, our study demonstrated that governorates of Gafsa, Sidi Bouzid, and Kairouan are at highest epidemic risk. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

AN ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF ANNUAL THERMAL VARIABLES ON THE OCCURRENCE OF WARM WATER FISHES

EPA Science Inventory

A potential effect of climate change is modification of the geographic distribution of fish species. To predict this modification it is necessary to estimate temperature tolerances of fishes and then relate these tolerances to the changing environment. This technique will allow...

Locking Nut with Stress-Distributing Insert

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniels, Christopher C.

2010-01-01

Reusable holders have been devised for evaluating high-temperature, plasma-resistant re-entry materials, especially fabrics. Typical material samples tested support thermal-protection-system damage repair requiring evaluation prior to re-entry into terrestrial atmosphere. These tests allow evaluation of each material to withstand the most severe predicted re-entry conditions.

A program to assess a thermal discharge on Trinity Bay, Texas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaitzeff, J. B.; Whitehead, V. S.

1972-01-01

The application of a two dimensional mathematical model to the analysis of the thermal discharge to verify its ability to predict the temperature distribution of Trinity Bay in the vicinity of the water outfall. Basic data consist of aerial thermal infrared and in situ measurements.

Temperature Data Assimilation with Salinity Corrections: Validation for the NSIPP Ocean Data Assimilation System in the Tropical Pacific Ocean, 1993-1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Troccoli, Alberto; Rienecker, Michele M.; Keppenne, Christian L.; Johnson, Gregory C.

2003-01-01

The NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) has developed an Ocean data assimilation system to initialize the quasi-isopycnal ocean model used in our experimental coupled-model forecast system. Initial tests of the system have focused on the assimilation of temperature profiles in an optimal interpolation framework. It is now recognized that correction of temperature only often introduces spurious water masses. The resulting density distribution can be statically unstable and also have a detrimental impact on the velocity distribution. Several simple schemes have been developed to try to correct these deficiencies. Here the salinity field is corrected by using a scheme which assumes that the temperature-salinity relationship of the model background is preserved during the assimilation. The scheme was first introduced for a zlevel model by Troccoli and Haines (1999). A large set of subsurface observations of salinity and temperature is used to cross-validate two data assimilation experiments run for the 6-year period 1993-1998. In these two experiments only subsurface temperature observations are used, but in one case the salinity field is also updated whenever temperature observations are available.

Climate and pH predict the potential range of the invasive apple snail (Pomacea insularum) in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Byers, James E; McDowell, William G; Dodd, Shelley R; Haynie, Rebecca S; Pintor, Lauren M; Wilde, Susan B

2013-01-01

Predicting the potential range of invasive species is essential for risk assessment, monitoring, and management, and it can also inform us about a species' overall potential invasiveness. However, modeling the distribution of invasive species that have not reached their equilibrium distribution can be problematic for many predictive approaches. We apply the modeling approach of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) that is effective with incomplete, presence-only datasets to predict the distribution of the invasive island apple snail, Pomacea insularum. This freshwater snail is native to South America and has been spreading in the USA over the last decade from its initial introductions in Texas and Florida. It has now been documented throughout eight southeastern states. The snail's extensive consumption of aquatic vegetation and ability to accumulate and transmit algal toxins through the food web heighten concerns about its spread. Our model shows that under current climate conditions the snail should remain mostly confined to the coastal plain of the southeastern USA where it is limited by minimum temperature in the coldest month and precipitation in the warmest quarter. Furthermore, low pH waters (pH <5.5) are detrimental to the snail's survival and persistence. Of particular note are low-pH blackwater swamps, especially Okefenokee Swamp in southern Georgia (with a pH below 4 in many areas), which are predicted to preclude the snail's establishment even though many of these areas are well matched climatically. Our results elucidate the factors that affect the regional distribution of P. insularum, while simultaneously presenting a spatial basis for the prediction of its future spread. Furthermore, the model for this species exemplifies that combining climatic and habitat variables is a powerful way to model distributions of invasive species.

A simple prioritization tool to diagnose impairment of stream temperature for coldwater fishes in the Great Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Falke, Jeffrey A.; Dunham, Jason B.; Hockman-Wert, David; Pahl, Randy

2016-01-01

We provide a simple framework for diagnosing the impairment of stream water temperature for coldwater fishes across broad spatial extents based on a weight-of-evidence approach that integrates biological criteria, species distribution models, and geostatistical models of stream temperature. As a test case, we applied our approach to identify stream reaches most likely to be thermally impaired for Lahontan Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi in the upper Reese River, located in the northern Great Basin, Nevada. We first evaluated the capability of stream thermal regime descriptors to explain variation across 170 sites, and we found that the 7-d moving average of daily maximum stream temperatures (7DADM) provided minimal among-descriptor redundancy and, based on an upper threshold of 20°C, was also a good indicator of acute and chronic thermal stress. Next, we quantified the range of Lahontan Cutthroat Trout within our study area using a geographic distribution model. Finally, we used a geostatistical model to assess spatial variation in 7DADM and predict potential thermal impairment at the stream reach scale. We found that whereas 38% of reaches in our study area exceeded a 7DADM of 20°C and 35% were significantly warmer than predicted, only 17% both exceeded the biological criterion and were significantly warmer than predicted. This filtering allowed us to identify locations where physical and biological impairment were most likely within the network and that would represent the highest management priorities. Although our approach lacks the precision of more comprehensive approaches, it provides a broader context for diagnosing impairment and is a useful means of identifying priorities for more detailed evaluations across broad and heterogeneous stream networks.

Predicting the distributions of predator (snow leopard) and prey (blue sheep) under climate change in the Himalaya.

PubMed

Aryal, Achyut; Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Ji, Weihong; Ale, Som B; Shrestha, Sujata; Ingty, Tenzing; Maraseni, Tek; Cockfield, Geoff; Raubenheimer, David

2016-06-01

Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator-prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy-deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate-only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km(2)) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km(2) (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate-only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator-prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards - a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future.

Time-dependent Fracture Behaviour of Polyampholyte Hydrogels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Tao Lin; Luo, Feng; Nakajima, Tasuku; Kurokawa, Takayuki; Gong, Jian Ping

Recently, we report that polyampholytes, polymers bearing randomly dispersed cationic and anionic repeat groups, form tough and self-healing hydrogels with excellent multiple mechanical functions. The randomness makes ionic bonds with a wide distribution of strength, via inter and intra chain complexation. As the breaking and reforming of ionic bonds are time dependent, the hydrogels exhibit rate dependent mechanical behaviour. We systematically studied the tearing energy by tearing test with various tearing velocity under different temperature, and the linear viscoelastic behaviour over a wide range of frequency and temperature. Results have shown that the tearing energy markedly increase with the crack velocity and decrease with the measured temperature. In accordance with the prediction of Williams, Landel, and Ferry (WLF) rate-temperature equivalence, a master curve of tearing energy dependence of crack velocity can be well constructed using the same shift factor from the linear viscoelastic data. The scaling relation of tearing energy as a function of crack velocity can be predicted well by the rheological data according to the developed linear fracture mechanics.

Seasonal Variations in Titan's Stratosphere Observed with Cassini/CIRS: Temperature, Trace Molecular Gas and Aerosol Mixing Ratio Profiles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vinatier, S.; Bezard, B.; Anderson, C. M.; Coustenis, A.; Teanby, N.

2012-01-01

Titan's northern spring equinox occurred in August 2009. General Circulation Models (e.g. Lebonnois et al., 2012) predict strong modifications of the global circulation in this period, with formation of two circulation cells instead of the pole-to-pole cell that occurred during northern winter. This winter single cell, which had its descending branch at the north pole, was at the origin of the enrichment of molecular abundances and high stratopause temperatures observed by Cassini/CIRS at high northern latitudes (e.g. Achterberg et al., 2011, Coustenis et al., 2010, Teanby et al., 2008, Vinatier et al., 2010). The predicted dynamical seasonal variations after the equinox have strong impact on the spatial distributions of trace gas, temperature and aerosol abundances. We will present here an analysis of CIRS limb-geometry datasets acquired in 2010 and 2011 that we used to monitor the seasonal evolution of the vertical profiles of temperature, molecular (C2H2, C2H6, HCN, ..) and aerosol abundances.

Ultrathin Injectable Sensors of Temperature, Thermal Conductivity, and Heat Capacity for Cardiac Ablation Monitoring.

PubMed

Koh, Ahyeon; Gutbrod, Sarah R; Meyers, Jason D; Lu, Chaofeng; Webb, Richard Chad; Shin, Gunchul; Li, Yuhang; Kang, Seung-Kyun; Huang, Yonggang; Efimov, Igor R; Rogers, John A

2016-02-04

Knowledge of the distributions of temperature in cardiac tissue during and after ablation is important in advancing a basic understanding of this process, and for improving its efficacy in treating arrhythmias. Technologies that enable real-time temperature detection and thermal characterization in the transmural direction can help to predict the depths and sizes of lesion that form. Herein, materials and designs for an injectable device platform that supports precision sensors of temperature and thermal transport properties distributed along the length of an ultrathin and flexible needle-type polymer substrate are introduced. The resulting system can insert into the myocardial tissue, in a minimally invasive manner, to monitor both radiofrequency ablation and cryoablation, in a manner that has no measurable effects on the natural mechanical motions of the heart. The measurement results exhibit excellent agreement with thermal simulations, thereby providing improved insights into lesion transmurality. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Effects of uncertainties in hydrological modelling. A case study of a mountainous catchment in Southern Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engeland, Kolbjørn; Steinsland, Ingelin; Johansen, Stian Solvang; Petersen-Øverleir, Asgeir; Kolberg, Sjur

2016-05-01

In this study, we explore the effect of uncertainty and poor observation quality on hydrological model calibration and predictions. The Osali catchment in Western Norway was selected as case study and an elevation distributed HBV-model was used. We systematically evaluated the effect of accounting for uncertainty in parameters, precipitation input, temperature input and streamflow observations. For precipitation and temperature we accounted for the interpolation uncertainty, and for streamflow we accounted for rating curve uncertainty. Further, the effects of poorer quality of precipitation input and streamflow observations were explored. Less information about precipitation was obtained by excluding the nearest precipitation station from the analysis, while reduced information about the streamflow was obtained by omitting the highest and lowest streamflow observations when estimating the rating curve. The results showed that including uncertainty in the precipitation and temperature inputs has a negligible effect on the posterior distribution of parameters and for the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency for the predicted flows, while the reliability and the continuous rank probability score (CRPS) improves. Less information in precipitation input resulted in a shift in the water balance parameter Pcorr, a model producing smoother streamflow predictions, giving poorer NS and CRPS, but higher reliability. The effect of calibrating the hydrological model using streamflow observations based on different rating curves is mainly seen as variability in the water balance parameter Pcorr. When evaluating predictions, the best evaluation scores were not achieved for the rating curve used for calibration, but for rating curves giving smoother streamflow observations. Less information in streamflow influenced the water balance parameter Pcorr, and increased the spread in evaluation scores by giving both better and worse scores.

Near infrared spectroscopy to estimate the temperature reached on burned soils: strategies to develop robust models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerrero, César; Pedrosa, Elisabete T.; Pérez-Bejarano, Andrea; Keizer, Jan Jacob

2014-05-01

The temperature reached on soils is an important parameter needed to describe the wildfire effects. However, the methods for measure the temperature reached on burned soils have been poorly developed. Recently, the use of the near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has been pointed as a valuable tool for this purpose. The NIR spectrum of a soil sample contains information of the organic matter (quantity and quality), clay (quantity and quality), minerals (such as carbonates and iron oxides) and water contents. Some of these components are modified by the heat, and each temperature causes a group of changes, leaving a typical fingerprint on the NIR spectrum. This technique needs the use of a model (or calibration) where the changes in the NIR spectra are related with the temperature reached. For the development of the model, several aliquots are heated at known temperatures, and used as standards in the calibration set. This model offers the possibility to make estimations of the temperature reached on a burned sample from its NIR spectrum. However, the estimation of the temperature reached using NIR spectroscopy is due to changes in several components, and cannot be attributed to changes in a unique soil component. Thus, we can estimate the temperature reached by the interaction between temperature and the thermo-sensible soil components. In addition, we cannot expect the uniform distribution of these components, even at small scale. Consequently, the proportion of these soil components can vary spatially across the site. This variation will be present in the samples used to construct the model and also in the samples affected by the wildfire. Therefore, the strategies followed to develop robust models should be focused to manage this expected variation. In this work we compared the prediction accuracy of models constructed with different approaches. These approaches were designed to provide insights about how to distribute the efforts needed for the development of robust models, since this step is the bottle-neck of this technique. In the first approach, a plot-scale model was used to predict the temperature reached in samples collected in other plots from the same site. In a plot-scale model, all the heated aliquots come from a unique plot-scale sample. As expected, the results obtained with this approach were deceptive, because this approach was assuming that a plot-scale model would be enough to represent the whole variability of the site. The accuracy (measured as the root mean square error of prediction, thereinafter RMSEP) was 86ºC, and the bias was also high (>30ºC). In the second approach, the temperatures predicted through several plot-scale models were averaged. The accuracy was improved (RMSEP=65ºC) respect the first approach, because the variability from several plots was considered and biased predictions were partially counterbalanced. However, this approach implies more efforts, since several plot-scale models are needed. In the third approach, the predictions were obtained with site-scale models. These models were constructed with aliquots from several plots. In this case, the results were accurate, since the RMSEP was around 40ºC, the bias was very small (<1ºC) and the R2 was 0.92. As expected, this approach clearly outperformed the second approach, in spite of the fact that the same efforts were needed. In a plot-scale model, only one interaction between temperature and soil components was modelled. However, several different interactions between temperature and soil components were present in the calibration matrix of a site-scale model. Consequently, the site-scale models were able to model the temperature reached excluding the influence of the differences in soil composition, resulting in more robust models respect that variation. Summarizing, the results were highlighting the importance of an adequate strategy to develop robust and accurate models with moderate efforts, and how a wrong strategy can result in deceptive predictions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Surdam, R.C.; MacGowan, D.B.

At temperatures less than 80/degree/C, the diagenetic reactions producing carbonate cements in sandstones can be explained nicely by the model proposed in 1986 by C.D. Curtis and M.L. Coleman. Briefly, the distribution of early carbonate cements is controlled by dissolved sulfate concentration and is a function of the processes which affect sulfate concentration (i.e., depositional water composition, microbial sulfate reduction, and water mixing). In order to use this model in a predictive sense, a knowledge of the original depositional environment's hydrology and hydrochemistry is necessary. Predictive models for sandstone diagenesis in the 80/degree/ to 130/degree/C thermal interval can be developedmore » based on carboxylic acid/CO/sub 2/ distributions and ratios. The model assumes that over this thermal interval the alkalinity in the reservoir facies is dominated by carboxylic acids and that a significant portion of CO/sub 2/ present is the product of decarboxylation of the acids (assuming there has been no significant mixing of water bodies). Furthermore, it is assumed that the stability of carbonates is a function of the carboxylic acid/CO/sub 2/ ratio, and the stability of framework grains is a function of the distribution and concentration of carboxylic acids. At temperatures greater than 130/degree/C, diagenetic reactions controlling the distribution of cements and the stability of framework grains in sandstones generally can be explained by thermocatalytic sulfate reduction. The determinative aspects of this process are the type of organics present in the system, the sulfate/organic ratio, and the presence or absence of iron. In addition to this information, if a time-temperature profile and kinetics for the redox reaction of interest are available, the process and resultant mineral reactions can be modeled.« less

A numerical analysis of phase-change problems including natural convection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cao, Y.; Faghri, A.

1990-08-01

Fixed grid solutions for phase-change problems remove the need to satisfy conditions at the phase-change front and can be easily extended to multidimensional problems. The two most important and widely used methods are enthalpy methods and temperature-based equivalent heat capacity methods. Both methods in this group have advantages and disadvantages. Enthalpy methods (Shamsundar and Sparrow, 1975; Voller and Prakash, 1987; Cao et al., 1989) are flexible and can handle phase-change problems occurring both at a single temperature and over a temperature range. The drawback of this method is that although the predicted temperature distributions and melting fronts are reasonable, themore » predicted time history of the temperature at a typical grid point may have some oscillations. The temperature-based fixed grid methods (Morgan, 1981; Hsiao and Chung, 1984) have no such time history problems and are more convenient with conjugate problems involving an adjacent wall, but have to deal with the severe nonlinearity of the governing equations when the phase-change temperature range is small. In this paper, a new temperature-based fixed-grid formulation is proposed, and the reason that the original equivalent heat capacity model is subject to such restrictions on the time step, mesh size, and the phase-change temperature range will also be discussed.« less

A 3-D mathematical model to identify organ-specific risks in rats during thermal stress.

PubMed

Rakesh, Vineet; Stallings, Jonathan D; Helwig, Bryan G; Leon, Lisa R; Jackson, David A; Reifman, Jaques

2013-12-01

Early prediction of the adverse outcomes associated with heat stress is critical for effective management and mitigation of injury, which may sometimes lead to extreme undesirable clinical conditions, such as multiorgan dysfunction syndrome and death. Here, we developed a computational model to predict the spatiotemporal temperature distribution in a rat exposed to heat stress in an attempt to understand the correlation between heat load and differential organ dysfunction. The model includes a three-dimensional representation of the rat anatomy obtained from medical imaging and incorporates the key mechanisms of heat transfer during thermoregulation. We formulated a novel approach to estimate blood temperature by accounting for blood mixing from the different organs and to estimate the effects of the circadian rhythm in body temperature by considering day-night variations in metabolic heat generation and blood perfusion. We validated the model using in vivo core temperature measurements in control and heat-stressed rats and other published experimental data. The model predictions were within 1 SD of the measured data. The liver demonstrated the greatest susceptibility to heat stress, with the maximum temperature reaching 2°C higher than the measured core temperature and 95% of its volume exceeding the targeted experimental core temperature. Other organs also attained temperatures greater than the core temperature, illustrating the need to monitor multiple organs during heat stress. The model facilitates the identification of organ-specific risks during heat stress and has the potential to aid in the development of improved clinical strategies for thermal-injury prevention and management.

A numerical study of zone-melting process for the thermoelectric material of Bi2Te3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, W. C.; Wu, Y. C.; Hwang, W. S.; Hsieh, H. L.; Huang, J. Y.; Huang, T. K.

2015-06-01

In this study, a numerical model has been established by employing a commercial software; ProCAST, to simulate the variation/distribution of temperature and the subsequent microstructure of Bi2Te3 fabricated by zone-melting technique. Then an experiment is conducted to measure the temperature variation/distribution during the zone-melting process to validate the numerical system. Also, the effects of processing parameters on crystallization microstructure such as moving speed and temperature of heater are numerically evaluated. In the experiment, the Bi2Te3 powder are filled into a 30mm diameter quartz cylinder and the heater is set to 800°C with a moving speed 12.5 mm/hr. A thermocouple is inserted in the Bi2Te3 powder to measure the temperature variation/distribution of the zone-melting process. The temperature variation/distribution measured by experiment is compared to the results of numerical simulation. The results show that our model and the experiment are well matched. Then the model is used to evaluate the crystal formation for Bi2Te3 with a 30mm diameter process. It's found that when the moving speed is slower than 17.5 mm/hr, columnar crystal is obtained. In the end, we use this model to predict the crystal formation of zone-melting process for Bi2Te3 with a 45 mm diameter. The results show that it is difficult to grow columnar crystal when the diameter comes to 45mm.

Dual-temperature acoustic levitation and sample transport apparatus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trinh, E.; Robey, J.; Jacobi, N.; Wang, T.

1986-01-01

The properties of a dual-temperature resonant chamber to be used for acoustical levitation and positioning have been theoretically and experimentally studied. The predictions of a first-order dissipationless treatment of the generalized wave equation for an inhomogeneous medium are in close agreement with experimental results for the temperature dependence of the resonant mode spectrum and the acoustic pressure distribution, although the measured magnitude of the pressure variations does not correlate well with the calculated one. Ground-based levitation of low-density samples has been demonstrated at 800 C, where steady-state forces up to 700 dyn were generated.

Designing gradient coils with reduced hot spot temperatures.

PubMed

While, Peter T; Forbes, Larry K; Crozier, Stuart

2010-03-01

Gradient coil temperature is an important concern in the design and construction of MRI scanners. Closely spaced gradient coil windings cause temperature hot spots within the system as a result of Ohmic heating associated with large current being driven through resistive material, and can strongly affect the performance of the coils. In this paper, a model is presented for predicting the spatial temperature distribution of a gradient coil, including the location and extent of temperature hot spots. Subsequently, a method is described for designing gradient coils with improved temperature distributions and reduced hot spot temperatures. Maximum temperature represents a non-linear constraint and a relaxed fixed point iteration routine is proposed to adjust coil windings iteratively to minimise this coil feature. Several examples are considered that assume different thermal material properties and cooling mechanisms for the gradient system. Coil winding solutions are obtained for all cases considered that display a considerable drop in hot spot temperature (>20%) when compared to standard minimum power gradient coils with equivalent gradient homogeneity, efficiency and inductance. The method is semi-analytical in nature and can be adapted easily to consider other non-linear constraints in the design of gradient coils or similar systems. Crown Copyright (c) 2009. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Locust displacing winds in eastern Australia reassessed with observations from an insect monitoring radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zhenhua; Drake, V. Alistair; Sidhu, Leesa; Taylor, John R.

2017-12-01

Based on previous investigations, adult Australian plague locusts are believed to migrate on warm nights (with evening temperatures >25 °C), provided daytime flight is suppressed by surface winds greater than the locusts' flight speed, which has been shown to be 3.1 m s-1. Moreover, adult locusts are believed to undertake briefer `dispersal' flights on nights with evening temperature >20 °C. To reassess the utility of these conditions for forecasting locust flight, contingency tests were conducted comparing the nights selected on these bases (predicted nights) for the months of November, January, and March and the nights when locust migration were detected with an insect monitoring radar (actual nights) over a 7-year period. In addition, the wind direction distributions and mean wind directions on all predicted nights and actual nights were compared. Observations at around 395 m above ground level (AGL), the height at which radar observations have shown that the greatest number of locusts fly, were used to determine the actual nights. Tests and comparisons were also made for a second height, 990 m AGL, as this was used in the previous investigation. Our analysis shows that the proposed criteria are successful from predicting migratory flight only in March, when the surface temperature is effective as a predicting factor. Surface wind speed has no predicting power. It is suggested that a strong daytime surface wind speed requirement should not be considered and other meteorological variables need to be added to the requirement of a warm surface temperature around dusk for the predictions to have much utility.

Analytical Predictions of Thermal Stress in the Stardust PICA Heatshield Under Reentry Flight Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Squire, Thomas; Milos, Frank; Agrawal, Parul

2009-01-01

We performed finite element analyses on a model of the Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) heatshield from the Stardust sample return capsule (SRC) to predict the thermal stresses in the PICA material during reentry. The heatshield on the Stardust SRC was a 0.83 m sphere cone, fabricated from a single piece of 5.82 cm-thick PICA. The heatshield performed successfully during Earth reentry of the SRC in January 2006. Material response analyses of the full, axisymmetric PICA heatshield were run using the Two-Dimensional Implicit Ablation, Pyrolysis, and Thermal Response Program (TITAN). Peak surface temperatures were predicted to be 3385K, while the temperature at the PICA backface remained at the estimated initial cold-soak temperature of 278K. Surface recession and temperature distribution results from TITAN, at several points in the reentry trajectory, were mapped onto an axisymmetric finite element model of the heatshield. We used the finite element model to predict the thermal stresses in the PICA from differential thermal expansion. The predicted peak compressive stress in the PICA heatshield was 1.38 MPa. Although this level of stress exceeded the chosen design limit for compressive stresses in PICA tiles for the design of the Orion crew exploration vehicle heatshield, the Stardust heatshield exhibited no obvious mechanical failures from thermal stress. The analyses of the Stardust heatshield were used to assess and adjust the level of conservatism in the finite element analyses in support of the Orion heatshield design.

Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of the carcinogenic liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, in Thailand.

PubMed

Suwannatrai, A; Pratumchart, K; Suwannatrai, K; Thinkhamrop, K; Chaiyos, J; Kim, C S; Suwanweerakamtorn, R; Boonmars, T; Wongsaroj, T; Sripa, B

2017-01-01

Global climate change is now regarded as imposing a significant threat of enhancing transmission of parasitic diseases. Maximum entropy species distribution modeling (MaxEnt) was used to explore how projected climate change could affect the potential distribution of the carcinogenic liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, in Thailand. A range of climate variables was used: the Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) climate change model and also the IPCC scenarios A2a for 2050 and 2070. Occurrence data from surveys conducted in 2009 and 2014 were obtained from the Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand. The MaxEnt model performed better than random for O. viverrini with training AUC values greater than 0.8 under current and future climatic conditions. The current distribution of O. viverrini is significantly affected by precipitation and minimum temperature. According to current conditions, parts of Thailand climatically suitable for O. viverrini are mostly in the northeast and north, but the parasite is largely absent from southern Thailand. Under future climate change scenarios, the distribution of O. viverrini in 2050 should be significantly affected by precipitation, maximum temperature, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter, whereas in 2070, significant factors are likely to be precipitation during the coldest quarter, maximum, and minimum temperatures. Maps of predicted future distribution revealed a drastic decrease in presence of O. viverrini in the northeast region. The information gained from this study should be a useful reference for implementing long-term prevention and control strategies for O. viverrini in Thailand.

The potential distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Libya based on ecological niche model.

PubMed

Abdel-Dayem, M S; Annajar, B B; Hanafi, H A; Obenauer, P J

2012-05-01

The increased cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis vectored by Phlebotomus papatasi (Scopoli) in Libya have driven considerable effort to develop a predictive model for the potential geographical distribution of this disease. We collected adult P. papatasi from 17 sites in Musrata and Yefern regions of Libya using four different attraction traps. Our trap results and literature records describing the distribution of P. papatasi were incorporated into a MaxEnt algorithm prediction model that used 22 environmental variables. The model showed a high performance (AUC = 0.992 and 0.990 for training and test data, respectively). High suitability for P. papatasi was predicted to be largely confined to the coast at altitudes <600 m. Regions south of 300 degrees N latitude were calculated as unsuitable for this species. Jackknife analysis identified precipitation as having the most significant predictive power, while temperature and elevation variables were less influential. The National Leishmaniasis Control Program in Libya may find this information useful in their efforts to control zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis. Existing records are strongly biased toward a few geographical regions, and therefore, further sand fly collections are warranted that should include documentation of such factors as soil texture and humidity, land cover, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data to increase the model's predictive power.

Numerical Prediction of Chevron Nozzle Noise Reduction using Wind-MGBK Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engblom, W.A.; Bridges, J.; Khavarant, A.

2005-01-01

Numerical predictions for single-stream chevron nozzle flow performance and farfield noise production are presented. Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) solutions, produced via the WIND flow solver, are provided as input to the MGBK code for prediction of farfield noise distributions. This methodology is applied to a set of sensitivity cases involving varying degrees of chevron inward bend angle relative to the core flow, for both cold and hot exhaust conditions. The sensitivity study results illustrate the effect of increased chevron bend angle and exhaust temperature on enhancement of fine-scale mixing, initiation of core breakdown, nozzle performance, and noise reduction. Direct comparisons with experimental data, including stagnation pressure and temperature rake data, PIV turbulent kinetic energy fields, and 90 degree observer farfield microphone data are provided. Although some deficiencies in the numerical predictions are evident, the correct farfield noise spectra trends are captured by the WIND-MGBK method, including the noise reduction benefit of chevrons. Implications of these results to future chevron design efforts are addressed.

Life on the boundary: Environmental factors as drivers of habitat distribution in the littoral zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cefalì, Maria Elena; Cebrian, Emma; Chappuis, Eglantine; Pinedo, Susana; Terradas, Marc; Mariani, Simone; Ballesteros, Enric

2016-04-01

The boundary between land and sea, i.e. the littoral zone, is home to a large number of habitats whose distribution is primarily driven by the distance to the sea level but also by other environmental factors such as littoral's geomorphological features, wave exposure, water temperature or orientation. Here we explore the relative importance of those major environmental factors that drive the presence of littoral rocky habitats along 1100 Km of Catalonia's shoreline (Spain, NW Mediterranean) by using Geographic Information Systems and Generalized Linear Models. The distribution of mediolittoral and upper infralittoral habitats responded to different environmental factors. Mediolittoral habitats showed regional differences drawn by sea-water temperature and substrate type. Wave exposure (hydrodynamism), slope and geological features were only relevant to those mediolittoral habitats with specific environmental needs. We did not find any regional pattern of distribution in upper infralittoral habitats, and selected factors only played a moderate role in habitat distribution at the local scale. This study shows for the first time that environmental factors determining habitat distribution differ within the mediolittoral and the upper infralittoral zones and provides the basis for further development of models oriented at predicting the distribution of littoral marine habitats.

The influence of precipitation kinetics on trace element partitioning between solid and liquid solutions: A coupled fluid dynamics/thermodynamics framework to predict distribution coefficients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavner, A.

2017-12-01

In a multicomponent multiphase geochemical system undergoing a chemical reaction such as precipitation and/or dissolution, the partitioning of species between phases is determined by a combination of thermodynamic properties and transport processes. The interpretation of the observed distribution of trace elements requires models integrating coupled chemistry and mechanical transport. Here, a framework is presented that predicts the kinetic effects on the distribution of species between two reacting phases. Based on a perturbation theory combining Navier-Stokes fluid flow and chemical reactivity, the framework predicts rate-dependent partition coefficients in a variety of different systems. We present the theoretical framework, with applications to two systems: 1. species- and isotope-dependent Soret diffusion of species in a multicomponent silicate melt subjected to a temperature gradient, and 2. Elemental partitioning and isotope fractionation during precipitation of a multicomponent solid from a multicomponent liquid phase. Predictions will be compared with results from experimental studies. The approach has applications for understanding chemical exchange in at boundary layers such as the Earth's surface magmatic systems and at the core/mantle boundary.

Predictive modeling of deep-sea fish distribution in the Azores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parra, Hugo E.; Pham, Christopher K.; Menezes, Gui M.; Rosa, Alexandra; Tempera, Fernando; Morato, Telmo

2017-11-01

Understanding the link between fish and their habitat is essential for an ecosystem approach to fisheries management. However, determining such relationship is challenging, especially for deep-sea species. In this study, we applied generalized additive models (GAMs) to relate presence-absence and relative abundance data of eight economically-important fish species to environmental variables (depth, slope, aspect, substrate type, bottom temperature, salinity and oxygen saturation). We combined 13 years of catch data collected from systematic longline surveys performed across the region. Overall, presence-absence GAMs performed better than abundance models and predictions made for the observed data successfully predicted the occurrence of the eight deep-sea fish species. Depth was the most influential predictor of all fish species occurrence and abundance distributions, whereas other factors were found to be significant for some species but did not show such a clear influence. Our results predicted that despite the extensive Azores EEZ, the habitats available for the studied deep-sea fish species are highly limited and patchy, restricted to seamounts slopes and summits, offshore banks and island slopes. Despite some identified limitations, our GAMs provide an improved knowledge of the spatial distribution of these commercially important fish species in the region.

A Simulation Framework for Battery Cell Impact Safety Modeling Using LS-DYNA

DOE PAGES

Marcicki, James; Zhu, Min; Bartlett, Alexander; ...

2017-02-04

The development process of electrified vehicles can benefit significantly from computer-aided engineering tools that predict themultiphysics response of batteries during abusive events. A coupled structural, electrical, electrochemical, and thermal model framework has been developed within the commercially available LS-DYNA software. The finite element model leverages a three-dimensional mesh structure that fully resolves the unit cell components. The mechanical solver predicts the distributed stress and strain response with failure thresholds leading to the onset of an internal short circuit. In this implementation, an arbitrary compressive strain criterion is applied locally to each unit cell. A spatially distributed equivalent circuit model providesmore » an empirical representation of the electrochemical responsewith minimal computational complexity.The thermalmodel provides state information to index the electrical model parameters, while simultaneously accepting irreversible and reversible sources of heat generation. The spatially distributed models of the electrical and thermal dynamics allow for the localization of current density and corresponding temperature response. The ability to predict the distributed thermal response of the cell as its stored energy is completely discharged through the short circuit enables an engineering safety assessment. A parametric analysis of an exemplary model is used to demonstrate the simulation capabilities.« less

Accounting for groundwater in stream fish thermal habitat responses to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snyder, Craig D.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Young, John A.

2015-01-01

Forecasting climate change effects on aquatic fauna and their habitat requires an understanding of how water temperature responds to changing air temperature (i.e., thermal sensitivity). Previous efforts to forecast climate effects on brook trout habitat have generally assumed uniform air-water temperature relationships over large areas that cannot account for groundwater inputs and other processes that operate at finer spatial scales. We developed regression models that accounted for groundwater influences on thermal sensitivity from measured air-water temperature relationships within forested watersheds in eastern North America (Shenandoah National Park, USA, 78 sites in 9 watersheds). We used these reach-scale models to forecast climate change effects on stream temperature and brook trout thermal habitat, and compared our results to previous forecasts based upon large-scale models. Observed stream temperatures were generally less sensitive to air temperature than previously assumed, and we attribute this to the moderating effect of shallow groundwater inputs. Predicted groundwater temperatures from air-water regression models corresponded well to observed groundwater temperatures elsewhere in the study area. Predictions of brook trout future habitat loss derived from our fine-grained models were far less pessimistic than those from prior models developed at coarser spatial resolutions. However, our models also revealed spatial variation in thermal sensitivity within and among catchments resulting in a patchy distribution of thermally suitable habitat. Habitat fragmentation due to thermal barriers therefore may have an increasingly important role for trout population viability in headwater streams. Our results demonstrate that simple adjustments to air-water temperature regression models can provide a powerful and cost-effective approach for predicting future stream temperatures while accounting for effects of groundwater.

Computation of thermodynamic and transport properties to predict thermophoretic effects in an argon-krypton mixture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Nicholas A. T.; Daivis, Peter J.; Snook, Ian K.; Todd, B. D.

2013-10-01

Thermophoresis is the movement of molecules caused by a temperature gradient. Here we report the results of a study of thermophoresis using non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations of a confined argon-krypton fluid subject to two different temperatures at thermostated walls. The resulting temperature profile between the walls is used along with the Soret coefficient to predict the concentration profile that develops across the channel. We obtain the Soret coefficient by calculating the mutual diffusion and thermal diffusion coefficients. We report an appropriate method for calculating the transport coefficients for binary systems, using the Green-Kubo integrals and radial distribution functions obtained from equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations of the bulk fluid. Our method has the unique advantage of separating the mutual diffusion and thermal diffusion coefficients, and calculating the sign and magnitude of their individual contributions to thermophoresis in binary mixtures.

Physics Based Modeling and Rendering of Vegetation in the Thermal Infrared

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. A.; Ballard, J. R., Jr.

1999-01-01

We outline a procedure for rendering physically-based thermal infrared images of simple vegetation scenes. Our approach incorporates the biophysical processes that affect the temperature distribution of the elements within a scene. Computer graphics plays a key role in two respects. First, in computing the distribution of scene shaded and sunlit facets and, second, in the final image rendering once the temperatures of all the elements in the scene have been computed. We illustrate our approach for a simple corn scene where the three-dimensional geometry is constructed based on measured morphological attributes of the row crop. Statistical methods are used to construct a representation of the scene in agreement with the measured characteristics. Our results are quite good. The rendered images exhibit realistic behavior in directional properties as a function of view and sun angle. The root-mean-square error in measured versus predicted brightness temperatures for the scene was 2.1 deg C.

Temperature tracking by North Sea benthic invertebrates in response to climate change.

PubMed

Hiddink, Jan G; Burrows, Michael T; García Molinos, Jorge

2015-01-01

Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity and distributions shifts are one of the most significant threats to global warming, but the extent to which these shifts keep pace with a changing climate is yet uncertain. Understanding the factors governing range shifts is crucial for conservation management to anticipate patterns of biodiversity distribution under future anthropogenic climate change. Soft-sediment invertebrates are a key faunal group because of their role in marine biogeochemistry and as a food source for commercial fish species. However, little information exists on their response to climate change. Here, we evaluate changes in the distribution of 65 North Sea benthic invertebrate species between 1986 and 2000 by examining their geographic, bathymetric and thermal niche shifts and test whether species are tracking their thermal niche as defined by minimum, mean or maximum sea bottom (SBT) and surface (SST) temperatures. Temperatures increased in the whole North Sea with many benthic invertebrates showing north-westerly range shifts (leading/trailing edges as well as distribution centroids) and deepening. Nevertheless, distribution shifts for most species (3.8-7.3 km yr(-1) interquantile range) lagged behind shifts in both SBT and SST (mean 8.1 km yr(-1)), resulting in many species experiencing increasing temperatures. The velocity of climate change (VoCC) of mean SST accurately predicted both the direction and magnitude of distribution centroid shifts, while maximum SST did the same for contraction of the trailing edge. The VoCC of SBT was not a good predictor of range shifts. No good predictor of expansions of the leading edge was found. Our results show that invertebrates need to shift at different rates and directions to track the climate velocities of different temperature measures, and are therefore lagging behind most temperature measures. If these species cannot withstand a change in thermal habitat, this could ultimately lead to a drop in benthic biodiversity. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas

PubMed Central

Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Conrad, Olaf; Böhner, Jürgen; Kawohl, Tobias; Kreft, Holger; Soria-Auza, Rodrigo Wilber; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Linder, H. Peter; Kessler, Michael

2017-01-01

High-resolution information on climatic conditions is essential to many applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Here we present the CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas) data of downscaled model output temperature and precipitation estimates of the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The temperature algorithm is based on statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperatures. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors including wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, with a subsequent bias correction. The resulting data consist of a monthly temperature and precipitation climatology for the years 1979–2013. We compare the data derived from the CHELSA algorithm with other standard gridded products and station data from the Global Historical Climate Network. We compare the performance of the new climatologies in species distribution modelling and show that we can increase the accuracy of species range predictions. We further show that CHELSA climatological data has a similar accuracy as other products for temperature, but that its predictions of precipitation patterns are better. PMID:28872642

Effect of injection current and temperature on signal strength in a laser diode optical feedback interferometer.

PubMed

Al Roumy, Jalal; Perchoux, Julien; Lim, Yah Leng; Taimre, Thomas; Rakić, Aleksandar D; Bosch, Thierry

2015-01-10

We present a simple analytical model that describes the injection current and temperature dependence of optical feedback interferometry signal strength for a single-mode laser diode. The model is derived from the Lang and Kobayashi rate equations, and is developed both for signals acquired from the monitoring photodiode (proportional to the variations in optical power) and for those obtained by amplification of the corresponding variations in laser voltage. The model shows that both the photodiode and the voltage signal strengths are dependent on the laser slope efficiency, which itself is a function of the injection current and the temperature. Moreover, the model predicts that the photodiode and voltage signal strengths depend differently on injection current and temperature. This important model prediction was proven experimentally for a near-infrared distributed feedback laser by measuring both types of signals over a wide range of injection currents and temperatures. Therefore, this simple model provides important insight into the radically different biasing strategies required to achieve optimal sensor sensitivity for both interferometric signal acquisition schemes.

Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Conrad, Olaf; Böhner, Jürgen; Kawohl, Tobias; Kreft, Holger; Soria-Auza, Rodrigo Wilber; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Linder, H. Peter; Kessler, Michael

2017-09-01

High-resolution information on climatic conditions is essential to many applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Here we present the CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) data of downscaled model output temperature and precipitation estimates of the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The temperature algorithm is based on statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperatures. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors including wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, with a subsequent bias correction. The resulting data consist of a monthly temperature and precipitation climatology for the years 1979-2013. We compare the data derived from the CHELSA algorithm with other standard gridded products and station data from the Global Historical Climate Network. We compare the performance of the new climatologies in species distribution modelling and show that we can increase the accuracy of species range predictions. We further show that CHELSA climatological data has a similar accuracy as other products for temperature, but that its predictions of precipitation patterns are better.

Co-Gradient Variation in Growth Rate and Development Time of a Broadly Distributed Butterfly

PubMed Central

Barton, Madeleine; Sunnucks, Paul; Norgate, Melanie; Murray, Neil; Kearney, Michael

2014-01-01

Widespread species often show geographic variation in thermally-sensitive traits, providing insight into how species respond to shifts in temperature through time. Such patterns may arise from phenotypic plasticity, genetic adaptation, or their interaction. In some cases, the effects of genotype and temperature may act together to reduce, or to exacerbate, phenotypic variation in fitness-related traits across varying thermal environments. We find evidence for such interactions in life-history traits of Heteronympha merope, a butterfly distributed across a broad latitudinal gradient in south-eastern Australia. We show that body size in this butterfly is negatively related to developmental temperature in the laboratory, in accordance with the temperature-size rule, but not in the field, despite very strong temperature gradients. A common garden experiment on larval thermal responses, spanning the environmental extremes of H. merope's distribution, revealed that butterflies from low latitude (warmer climate) populations have relatively fast intrinsic growth and development rates compared to those from cooler climates. These synergistic effects of genotype and temperature across the landscape (co-gradient variation) are likely to accentuate phenotypic variation in these traits, and this interaction must be accounted for when predicting how H. merope will respond to temperature change through time. These results highlight the importance of understanding how variation in life-history traits may arise in response to environmental change. Without this knowledge, we may fail to detect whether organisms are tracking environmental change, and if they are, whether it is by plasticity, adaptation or both. PMID:24743771

Native rainbow smelt and nonnative alewife distribution related to temperature and light gradients in Lake Champlain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrish, Donna; Simonin, Paul W.; Rudstam, Lars G.; Sullivan, Patrick J.; Pientka, Bernard

2012-01-01

Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) recently became established in Lake Champlain and may compete with native rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) for food or consume larval rainbow smelt. The strength of this effect depends partly on the spatial and temporal overlap of different age groups of the two species; therefore, we need a better understanding of factors affecting alewife and rainbow smelt distributions in Lake Champlain. We used hydroacoustics, trawls, and gill nets to document vertical fish distribution, and recorded environmental data during 16 day–night surveys over two years. Temperature, temperature change, and light were all predictors of adult and age-0 rainbow smelt distribution, and temperature and light were predictors of age-0 alewives' distribution (based on GAMM models evaluated with AIC). Adult alewives were 5–30 m shallower and age-0 alewives were 2–15 m shallower than their rainbow smelt counterparts. Adult rainbow smelt distribution overlapped with age-0 rainbow smelt and age-0 alewives near the thermocline (10–25 m), whereas adult alewives were shallower (0–6 m) and overlapped with age-0 alewives and rainbow smelt in the epilimnion. Adult rainbow smelt were in water < 10–12 °C, whereas age-0 rainbow smelt were in 10–20 °C, and adult and age-0 alewives were in 15–22 °C water. Predicting these species distributions is necessary for quantifying the strength of predatory and competitive interactions between alewife and rainbow smelt, as well as between alewife and other fish species in Lake Champlain.

High-precision simulation of the height distribution for the KPZ equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Alexander K.; Le Doussal, Pierre; Majumdar, Satya N.; Rosso, Alberto; Schehr, Gregory

2018-03-01

The one-point distribution of the height for the continuum Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) equation is determined numerically using the mapping to the directed polymer in a random potential at high temperature. Using an importance sampling approach, the distribution is obtained over a large range of values, down to a probability density as small as 10-1000 in the tails. Both short and long times are investigated and compared with recent analytical predictions for the large-deviation forms of the probability of rare fluctuations. At short times the agreement with the analytical expression is spectacular. We observe that the far left and right tails, with exponents 5/2 and 3/2, respectively, are preserved also in the region of long times. We present some evidence for the predicted non-trivial crossover in the left tail from the 5/2 tail exponent to the cubic tail of the Tracy-Widom distribution, although the details of the full scaling form remain beyond reach.

Dynamic Field and Current Distributions in Multifilamentary YBa2Cu3O7-delta Thin Films with Magnetic Coupling (POSTPRINT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

INTRODUCTION The separation of high-temperature superconducting HTS tapes into filaments is a viable approach to reduce ac and hysteretic losses in...generation HTS coated conductors. However, ac losses of finely striated tapes can still be larger than desired as predicted by analytical expressions.6...necessitates an in-depth understanding of the flux and current dynamics in multifilamentary HTS structures as both depend strongly on temperature and history of

Experimental and theoretical investigation of intratumoral nanoparticle distribution to enhance magnetic nanoparticle hyperthermia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attaluri, Anilchandra

Magnetic nanoparticles have gained prominence in recent years for use in clinical applications such as imaging, drug delivery, and hyperthermia. Magnetic nanoparticle hyperthermia is a minimally invasive and effective approach for confined heating in tumors with little collateral damage. One of the major problems in the field of magnetic nanoparticle hyperthermia is irregular heat distribution in tumors which caused repeatable heat distribution quite impossible. This causes under dosage in tumor area and overheating in normal tissue. In this study, we develop a unified approach to understand magnetic nanoparticle distribution and temperature elevations in gel and tumors. A microCT imaging system is first used to visualize and quantify nanoparticle distribution in both tumors and tissue equivalent phantom gels. The microCT based nanoparticle concentration is related to specific absorption rate (SAR) of the nanoparticles and is confirmed by heat distribution experiments in tissue equivalent phantom gels. An optimal infusion protocol is identified to generate controllable and repeatable nanoparticle distribution in tumors. In vivo animal experiments are performed to measure intratumoral temperature elevations in PC3 xenograft tumors implanted in mice during magnetic nanoparticle hyperthermia. The effect of nanofluid injection parameters on the resulted temperature distribution is studied. It shows that the tumor temperatures can be elevated above 50°C using very small amounts of ferrofluid with a relatively low magnetic field. Slower ferrofluid infusion rates result in smaller nanoparticle distribution volumes in the tumors, however, it gives the much required controllability and repeatability when compared to the higher infusion rates. More nanoparticles occupy a smaller volume in the vicinity of the injection site with slower infusion rates, causing higher temperature elevations in the tumors. Based on the microCT imaging analyses of nanoparticles in tumors, a mass transport model is developed to simulate nanoparticle convection and diffusion in tumors, heat-induced tumor structural changes, as well as nanoparticle re-distribution during nanoparticle hyperthermia procedures. The modeled thermal damage induced nanoparticle redistribution predicts a 20% increase in the radius of the spherical tissue region containing nanoparticles. The developed model has demonstrated the feasibility of enhancing nanoparticle dispersion from injection sites using targeted thermal damage.

Geographical distribution of reference value of aging people's left ventricular end systolic diameter based on the support vector regression.

PubMed

Han, Xiao; Ge, Miao; Dong, Jie; Xue, Ranying; Wang, Zixuan; He, Jinwei

2014-09-01

The aim of this paper is to analyze the geographical distribution of reference value of aging people's left ventricular end systolic diameter (LVDs), and to provide a scientific basis for clinical examination. The study is focus on the relationship between reference value of left ventricular end systolic diameter of aging people and 14 geographical factors, selecting 2495 samples of left ventricular end systolic diameter (LVDs) of aging people in 71 units of China, in which including 1620 men and 875 women. By using the Moran's I index to make sure the relationship between the reference values and spatial geographical factors, extracting 5 geographical factors which have significant correlation with left ventricular end systolic diameter for building the support vector regression, detecting by the method of paired sample t test to make sure the consistency between predicted and measured values, finally, makes the distribution map through the disjunctive kriging interpolation method and fits the three-dimensional trend of normal reference value. It is found that the correlation between the extracted geographical factors and the reference value of left ventricular end systolic diameter is quite significant, the 5 indexes respectively are latitude, annual mean air temperature, annual mean relative humidity, annual precipitation amount, annual range of air temperature, the predicted values and the observed ones are in good conformity, there is no significant difference at 95% degree of confidence. The overall trend of predicted values increases from west to east, increases first and then decreases from north to south. If geographical values are obtained in one region, the reference value of left ventricular end systolic diameter of aging people in this region can be obtained by using the support vector regression model. It could be more scientific to formulate the different distributions on the basis of synthesizing the physiological and the geographical factors. -Use Moran's index to analyze the spatial correlation. -Choose support vector machine to build model that overcome complexity of variables. -Test normal distribution of predicted data to guarantee the interpolation results. -Through trend analysis to explain the changes of reference value clearly. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Biological modulation of the earth's atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Margulis, L.; Lovelock, J. E.

1974-01-01

Review of the evidence that the earth's atmosphere is regulated by life on the surface so that the probability of growth of the entire biosphere is maximized. Acidity, gas composition including oxygen level, and ambient temperature are enormously important determinants for the distribution of life. The earth's atmosphere deviates greatly from that of the other terrestrial planets in particular with respect to acidity, composition, redox potential and temperature history as predicted from solar luminosity. These deviations from predicted steady state conditions have apparently persisted over millions of years. These anomalies may be evidence for a complex planet-wide homeostasis that is the product of natural selection. Possible homeostatic mechanisms that may be further investigated by both theoretical and experimental methods are suggested.

Dilution jet mixing program, supplementary report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Srinivasan, R.; White, C.

1986-01-01

The velocity and temperature distributions predicted by a 3-D numerical model and experimental measurements are compared. Empirical correlations for the jet velocity trajectory developed are presented. The measured velocity distributions for all test cases of phase through phase 3 are presented in the form of contour and oblique plots. quantification of the effects of the following on the jet mixing characteristics with a confined crossflow are: (1) orifice geometry momentum flux ratio and density ratio; (2) nonuniform mainstream temperature and velocity profiles upstream of dilution orifices; (3) cold versus hot jet injection; (4) cross-stream flow are a convergence as encountered in practical dilution zone geometries; (5) 2-D slot versus circular orifices; (6) discrete noncirculcer orifices; (7) single-sided versus opposed jets; (8) single row of jets.

Predicting the Start of the Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Female Adult Biting Season Using the Spring Temperature in Japan

PubMed Central

Higa, Yukiko; Muto, Atsushi; Hirabayashi, Kimio; Yoshida, Masahiro; Sato, Takashi; Nihei, Naoko; Sawabe, Kyoko; Kobayashi, Mutsuo

2017-01-01

Abstract Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) is distributed widely and is common in much of Japan. In Japan, female adults begin to bite in between April and June, except in the southern subtropics where the mosquito has no dormant period. It is difficult to estimate the first Ae. albopictus biting day because it varies annually depending on the location. Over several years, we surveyed the mosquitoes at different locations that covered a range of warmer to cooler areas of Japan. We found an association between the timing of first biting day by Ae. albopictus and spring temperature. In spring months, the strongest correlation was found with mean April temperatures, followed by March. Based on these data, it may, therefore, be possible to apply a simple formula to predict the timing of the first biting day at various geographical locations in Japan. Forecasting maps were created using a simple prediction formula. We found that the first biting day for Ae. albopictus changed depending on early spring temperatures for each year. There was an approximate 20-d difference in first biting day between years with warmer and cooler springs. This prediction model will provide useful insight for planning and practice of Ae. albopictus control programs, targeting larvae and adults, in temperate regions globally. PMID:28968909

A simplified heat transfer model for predicting temperature change inside food package kept in cold room.

PubMed

Raval, A H; Solanki, S C; Yadav, Rajvir

2013-04-01

A simple analytical heat flow model for a closed rectangular food package containing fruits or vegetables is proposed for predicting time temperature distribution during transient cooling in a controlled environment cold room. It is based on the assumption of only conductive heat transfer inside a closed food package with effective thermal properties, and convective and radiative heat transfer at the outside of the package. The effective thermal conductivity of the food package is determined by evaluating its effective thermal resistance to heat conduction in the packages. Food packages both as an infinite slab and a finite slab have been investigated. The finite slab solution has been obtained as the product of three infinite slab solutions describe in ASHRAE guide and data book. Time temperature variation has been determined and is presented graphically. The cooling rate and the half cooling time were also obtained. These predicted values, are compared with the experimentally measured values for both the finite and infinite closed packages containing oranges. An excellent agreement between them validated the simple proposed model.

The application of novel nano-thermal and imaging techniques for monitoring drug microstructure and distribution within PLGA microspheres.

PubMed

Yang, Fan; Chen, De; Guo, Zhe-Fei; Zhang, Yong-Ming; Liu, Yi; Askin, Sean; Craig, Duncan Q M; Zhao, Min

2017-04-30

Poly (d,l-lactic-co-glycolic) acid (PLGA) based microspheres have been extensively used as controlled drug release systems. However, the burst effect has been a persistent issue associated with such systems, especially for those prepared by the double emulsion technique. An effective approach to preventing the burst effect and achieving a more ideal drug release profile is to improve the drug distribution within the polymeric matrix. Therefore, it is of great importance to establish a rapid and robust tool for screening and optimizing the drug distribution during pre-formulation. Transition Temperature Microscopy (TTM), a novel nano-thermal and imaging technique, is an extension of nano-thermal analysis (nano-TA) whereby a transition temperature is detected at a localized region of a sample and then designated a color based on a particular temperature/color palette, finally resulting in a coded map based on transition temperatures detected by carrying out a series of nanoTA measurements across the surface of the sample. In this study, we investigate the feasibility of applying the aforementioned technique combined with other thermal, imaging and structural techniques for monitoring the drug microstructure and spatial distribution within bovine serum albumin (BSA) loaded and nimodipine loaded PLGA microspheres, with a view to better predicting the in vitro drug release performance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change risks, extinction debt, and conservation implications for a threatened freshwater fish: Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus).

PubMed

Pandit, Shubha N; Maitland, Bryan M; Pandit, Laxmi K; Poesch, Mark S; Enders, Eva C

2017-11-15

Climate change is affecting many freshwater species, particularly fishes. Predictions of future climate change suggest large and deleterious effects on species with narrow dispersal abilities due to limited hydrological connectivity. In turn, this creates the potential for population isolation in thermally unsuitable habitats, leading to physiological stress, species declines or possible extirpation. The current extent of many freshwater fish species' spatio-temporal distribution patterns and their sensitivity to thermal impacts from climate change - critical information for conservation planning - are often unknown. Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus) is an ecologically important species listed as threatened or imperilled nationally (Canada) and regionally (South Dakota, United States) due to its restricted range and sensitivity to water quality and temperature. This research aimed to determine the current distribution and spatio-temporal variability in projected suitable habitat for Carmine shiner using niche-based modeling approaches (MaxEnt, BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN models). Statistically downscaled, bias-corrected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) data was used to model the distribution of Carmine shiner in central North America for the period of 2041-2060 (2050s). Maximum mean July temperature and temperature variability were the main factors in determining Carmine shiner distribution. Patterns of projected habitat change by the 2050s suggest the spatial extent of the current distribution of Carmine shiner would shift north, with >50% of the current distribution changing with future projections based on two Representative Concentrations Pathways for CO 2 emissions. Whereas the southern extent of the distribution would become unsuitable for Carmine shiner, suitable habitats are predicted to become available further north, if accessible. Importantly, the majority of habitat gains for Carmine shiner would be in areas currently inaccessible due to dispersal limitations, suggesting current populations may face an extinction debt within the next half century. These results provide evidence that Carmine shiner may be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and suggest that management actions - such as assisted migration - may be needed to mitigate impacts from climate change and ensure the long-term persistence of the species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Micromechanical Modeling of the Thermal Expansion of Graphite/copper Composites with Nonuniform Microstructure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Pindera, Marek-Jerzy

1994-01-01

Two micromechanical models were developed to investigate the thermal expansion of graphite/copper (Gr/Cu) composites. The models incorporate the effects of temperature-dependent material properties, matrix inelasticity, initial residual stresses due to processing history, and nonuniform fiber distribution. The first model is based on the multiple concentric cylinder geometry, with each cylinder treated as a two-phase composite with a characteristic fiber volume fractions. By altering the fiber volume fraction of the individual cylinders, unidirectional composites with radially nonuniform fiber distributions can be investigated using this model. The second model is based on the inelastic lamination theory. By varying the fiber content in the individual laminae, composites with nonuniform fiber distribution in the thickness direction can be investigated. In both models, the properties of the individual regions (cylinders or laminae) are calculated using the method of cells micromechanical model. Classical incremental plasticity theory is used to model the inelastic response of the copper matrix at the microlevel. The models were used to characterize the effects of nonuniform fiber distribution on the thermal expansion of Gr/Cu. These effects were compared to the effects of matrix plasticity, choice of stress-free temperature, and slight fiber misalignment. It was found that the radially nonuniform fiber distribution has little effect on the thermal expansion of Gr/Cu but could become significant for composites with large fiber-matrix transverse CTE and Young's modulus mismatch. The effect of nonuniform fiber distribution in the through-thickness direction of a laminate was more significant, but only approached that of the stress-free temperature for the most extreme cases that include large amounts of bending. Subsequent comparison with experimental thermal expansion data indicated the need for more accurate characterization of the graphite fiber thermomechanical properties. Correlation with cyclic data revealed the presence of a mechanism not considered in the developed models. The predicted response did, however, exhibit ratcheting behavior that has been observed experimentally in Gr/Cu. Finally, simulation of the actual fiber distribution of particular specimens had little effect on the predicted thermal expansion.

Benford's law gives better scaling exponents in phase transitions of quantum XY models.

PubMed

Rane, Ameya Deepak; Mishra, Utkarsh; Biswas, Anindya; Sen De, Aditi; Sen, Ujjwal

2014-08-01

Benford's law is an empirical law predicting the distribution of the first significant digits of numbers obtained from natural phenomena and mathematical tables. It has been found to be applicable for numbers coming from a plethora of sources, varying from seismographic, biological, financial, to astronomical. We apply this law to analyze the data obtained from physical many-body systems described by the one-dimensional anisotropic quantum XY models in a transverse magnetic field. We detect the zero-temperature quantum phase transition and find that our method gives better finite-size scaling exponents for the critical point than many other known scaling exponents using measurable quantities like magnetization, entanglement, and quantum discord. We extend our analysis to the same system but at finite temperature and find that it also detects the finite-temperature phase transition in the model. Moreover, we compare the Benford distribution analysis with the same obtained from the uniform and Poisson distributions. The analysis is furthermore important in that the high-precision detection of the cooperative physical phenomena is possible even from low-precision experimental data.

How the Emitted Size Distribution and Mixing State of Feldspar Affect Ice Nucleating Particles in a Global Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perlwitz, Jan P.; Fridlind, Ann M.; Knopf, Daniel A.; Miller, Ron L.; García-Pando, Carlos Perez

2017-01-01

The effect of aerosol particles on ice nucleation and, in turn, the formation of ice and mixed phase clouds is recognized as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate prediction. We apply an improved dust mineral specific aerosol module in the NASA GISS Earth System ModelE, which takes into account soil aggregates and their fragmentation at emission as well as the emission of large particles. We calculate ice nucleating particle concentrations from K-feldspar abundance for an active site parameterization for a range of activation temperatures and external and internal mixing assumption. We find that the globally averaged INP concentration is reduced by a factor of two to three, compared to a simple assumption on the size distribution of emitted dust minerals. The decrease can amount to a factor of five in some geographical regions. The results vary little between external and internal mixing and different activation temperatures, except for the coldest temperatures. In the sectional size distribution, the size range 24 micrometer contributes the largest INP number.

Project Fog Drops. Part 1: Investigations of warm fog properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pilie, R. J.; Eadie, W.; Mack, E. J.; Rogers, C.; Kocmond, W. C.

1972-01-01

A detailed study was made of the micrometeorological and microphysical characteristics of eleven valley fogs occurring near Elmira, New York. Observations were made of temperature, dew point, wind speed and direction, dew deposition, vertical wind velocity, and net radiative flux. In fog, visibility was continuously recorded and periodic measurements were made of liquid water content and drop-size distribution. The observations were initiated in late evening and continued until the time of fog dissipation. The vertical distribution of temperature in the lowest 300 meters and cloud nucleus concentration at several heights were measured from an aircraft before fog nucleus concentrations at several heights were measured from an aircraft before fog formation. A numerical model was developed to investigate the life cycle of radiation fogs. The model predicts the temporal evolution of the vertical distributions of temperature, water vapor, and liquid water as determined by the turbulent transfer of heat and moisture. The model includes the nocturnal cooling of the earth's surface, dew formation, fog drop sedimentation, and the absorption of infrared radiation by fog.

How the Emitted Size Distribution and Mixing State of Feldspar Affect Ice Nucleating Particles in a Global Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perlwitz, J. P.; Fridlind, A. M.; Knopf, D. A.; Miller, R. L.; Pérez García-Pando, C.

2017-12-01

The effect of aerosol particles on ice nucleation and, in turn, the formation of ice and mixed phase clouds is recognized as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate prediction. We apply an improved dust mineral specific aerosol module in the NASA GISS Earth System ModelE, which takes into account soil aggregates and their fragmentation at emission as well as the emission of large particles. We calculate ice nucleating particle concentrations from K-feldspar abundance for an active site parameterization for a range of activation temperatures and external and internal mixing assumption. We find that the globally averaged INP concentration is reduced by a factor of two to three, compared to a simple assumption on the size distribution of emitted dust minerals. The decrease can amount to a factor of five in some geographical regions. The results vary little between external and internal mixing and different activation temperatures, except for the coldest temperatures. In the sectional size distribution, the size range 2-4 μm contributes the largest INP number.

Climate change and malaria risk in Russia in 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malkhazova, S.; Shartova, N.

2010-09-01

The purpose of this research is development of prognostic model of malaria risk for Russia in the 21st century according to climate scenario IPCC "А2". The following issues have been formulated to reach the goal of the research: - define the basic epidemiological parameters describing malaria situation and methods of data processing; - creating of maps of malaria risk; - analysis of changes in malaria distribution for predictable future climate conditions in comparison with conditions of a modern climate. A lot of reasons (biological, social and economic) impact on malaria distribution. Nevertheless, incubation period of the parasite first of all depends on temperature. This is a primary factor that defines a potential area of infection, ability and specificity to transmit malaria. According to this, the model is based on the relationship between climate (average daily temperature) and the intensity of malaria transmission. The object of research is malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax, which has for Russia the greatest importance because it has the lowest minimal temperature threshold for development. Climate data is presented by daily average temperatures of air for three analyzed periods. 1961 -1989 describes a modern climate and corresponds to the minimum 30-year period that is necessary for an assessment of climate and changes connected with biotic components. Prognostic malaria model is based on predicted daily average temperatures for 2046-2065 (the middle of century) and 2089-2100 (the end of century). All data sets are presented in the grid 2х20. The conclusion on possible changes in malaria distribution and transmission in the middle and the end of the 21st century: There is going to be the increase of duration of effective temperatures period (period when parasite development is possible), period of effective susceptibility to infection of mosquitoes (period when malaria transmission cycle is possible); shift of the beginning of malaria transmission period to earlier time as well as the end of this period's shift to later time is connected to increase of effective temperatures annual sum. Northern bounds of the territory where temperature conditions allow parasite's development and disease transmission are going to move significantly to the north. Accordingly there will be an expansion of potential disease distribution area. Annual development of parasite and malaria transmission will probably be possible on nearly whole European part of Russia. The probability of malaria transmission and its intensity will increase. The results of the research indicate growth of malaria risk in Russia in 21st century.

Modelling benthic macrofauna and seagrass distribution patterns in a North Sea tidal basin in response to 2050 climatic and environmental scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, Anja; Millat, Gerald; Staneva, Joanna; Kröncke, Ingrid

2017-03-01

Small-scale spatial distribution patterns of seven macrofauna species, seagrass beds and mixed mussel/oyster reefs were modelled for the Jade Bay (North Sea, Germany) in response to climatic and environmental scenarios (representing 2050). For the species distribution models four presence-absence modelling methods were merged within the ensemble forecasting platform 'biomod2'. The present spatial distribution (representing 2009) was modelled by statistically related species presences, true species absences and six high-resolution environmental grids. The future spatial distribution was then predicted in response to expected climate change-induced ongoing (1) sea-level rise and (2) water temperature increase. Between 2009 and 2050, the present and future prediction maps revealed a significant range gain for two macrofauna species (Macoma balthica, Tubificoides benedii), whereas the species' range sizes of five macrofauna species remained relatively stable across space and time. The predicted probability of occurrence (PO) of two macrofauna species (Cerastoderma edule, Scoloplos armiger) decreased significantly under the potential future habitat conditions. In addition, a clear seagrass bed extension (Zostera noltii) on the lower intertidal flats (mixed sediments) and a decrease in the PO of mixed Mytilus edulis/Crassostrea gigas reefs was predicted for 2050. Until the mid-21st century, our future climatic and environmental scenario revealed significant changes in the range sizes (gains-losses) and/or the PO (increases-decreases) for seven of the 10 modelled species at the study site.

Hyperspectral and thermal imaging of oilseed rape (Brassica napus) response to fungal species of the genus Alternaria.

PubMed

Baranowski, Piotr; Jedryczka, Malgorzata; Mazurek, Wojciech; Babula-Skowronska, Danuta; Siedliska, Anna; Kaczmarek, Joanna

2015-01-01

In this paper, thermal (8-13 µm) and hyperspectral imaging in visible and near infrared (VNIR) and short wavelength infrared (SWIR) ranges were used to elaborate a method of early detection of biotic stresses caused by fungal species belonging to the genus Alternaria that were host (Alternaria alternata, Alternaria brassicae, and Alternaria brassicicola) and non-host (Alternaria dauci) pathogens to oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.). The measurements of disease severity for chosen dates after inoculation were compared to temperature distributions on infected leaves and to averaged reflectance characteristics. Statistical analysis revealed that leaf temperature distributions on particular days after inoculation and respective spectral characteristics, especially in the SWIR range (1000-2500 nm), significantly differed for the leaves inoculated with A. dauci from the other species of Alternaria as well as from leaves of non-treated plants. The significant differences in leaf temperature of the studied Alternaria species were observed in various stages of infection development. The classification experiments were performed on the hyperspectral data of the leaf surfaces to distinguish days after inoculation and Alternaria species. The second-derivative transformation of the spectral data together with back-propagation neural networks (BNNs) appeared to be the best combination for classification of days after inoculation (prediction accuracy 90.5%) and Alternaria species (prediction accuracy 80.5%).

Influence of slosh baffles on thermodynamic performance in liquid hydrogen tank.

PubMed

Liu, Zhan; Li, Cui

2018-03-15

A calibrated CFD model is built to investigate the influence of slosh baffles on the pressurization performance in liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ) tank. The calibrated CFD model is proven to have great predictive ability by compared against the flight experimental results. The pressure increase, thermal stratification and wall heat transfer coefficient of LH 2 tank have been detailedly studied. The results indicate that slosh baffles have a great influence on tank pressure increase, fluid temperature distribution and wall heat transfer. Owning to the existence of baffles, the stratification thickness increases gradually with the distance from tank axis to tank wall. While for the tank without baffles, the stratification thickness decreases firstly and then increases with the increase of the distance from the axis. The "M" type stratified thickness distribution presents in tank without baffles. One modified heat transfer coefficient correlation has been proposed with the change of fluid temperature considered by multiplying a temperature correction factor. It has been proven that the average relative prediction errors of heat transfer coefficient reduced from 19.08% to 4.98% for the wet tank wall of the tank, from 8.93% to 4.27% for the dry tank wall, respectively, calculated by the modified correlation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Continuum Damage Mechanics Used to Predict the Creep Life of Monolithic Ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powers, Lynn M.; Jadaan, Osama M.

1998-01-01

Significant improvements in propulsion and power generation for the next century will require revolutionary advances in high-temperature materials and structural design. Advanced ceramics are candidate materials for these elevated temperature applications. High-temperature and long-duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. An analytical methodology in the form of the integrated design program-Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep (CARES/Creep) has been developed by the NASA Lewis Research Center to predict the life of ceramic structural components subjected to creep rupture conditions. This program utilizes commercially available finite element packages and takes into account the transient state of stress and creep strain distributions (stress relaxation as well as the asymmetric response to tension and compression). The creep life of a component is discretized into short time steps, during which the stress distribution is assumed constant. Then, the damage is calculated for each time step on the basis of a modified Monkman-Grant (MMG) creep rupture criterion. The cumulative damage is subsequently calculated as time elapses in a manner similar to Miner's rule for cyclic fatigue loading. Failure is assumed to occur when the normalized cumulative damage at any point in the component reaches unity. The corresponding time is the creep rupture life for that component.

Validation of MCDS by comparison of predicted with experimental velocity distribution functions in rarefied normal shocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pham-Van-diep, Gerald C.; Erwin, Daniel A.

1989-01-01

Velocity distribution functions in normal shock waves in argon and helium are calculated using Monte Carlo direct simulation. These are compared with experimental results for argon at M = 7.18 and for helium at M = 1.59 and 20. For both argon and helium, the variable-hard-sphere (VHS) model is used for the elastic scattering cross section, with the velocity dependence derived from a viscosity-temperature power-law relationship in the way normally used by Bird (1976).

Abundance of fluorescent biological aerosol particles at temperatures conducive to the formation of mixed-phase and cirrus clouds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Twohy, Cynthia H.; McMeeking, Gavin R.; DeMott, Paul J.

Some types of biological particles are known to nucleate ice at warmer temperatures than mineral dust, with the potential to influence cloud microphysical properties and climate. However, the prevalence of these particle types above the atmospheric boundary layer is not well known. Many types of biological particles fluoresce when exposed to ultraviolet light, and the Wideband Integrated Bioaerosol Sensor takes advantage of this characteristic to perform real-time measurements of fluorescent biological aerosol particles (FBAPs). This instrument was flown on the National Center for Atmospheric Research Gulfstream V aircraft to measure concentrations of fluorescent biological particles from different potential sources andmore » at various altitudes over the US western plains in early autumn. Clear-air number concentrations of FBAPs between 0.8 and 12 µm diameter usually decreased with height and generally were about 10–100 L -1 in the continental boundary layer but always much lower at temperatures colder than 255 K in the free troposphere. At intermediate temperatures where biological ice-nucleating particles may influence mixed-phase cloud formation (255 K ≤ T ≤ 270 K), concentrations of fluorescent particles were the most variable and were occasionally near boundary-layer concentrations. Predicted vertical distributions of ice-nucleating particle concentrations based on FBAP measurements in this temperature regime sometimes reached typical concentrations of primary ice in clouds but were often much lower. If convection was assumed to lift boundary-layer FBAPs without losses to the free troposphere, better agreement between predicted ice-nucleating particle concentrations and typical ice crystal concentrations was achieved. Ice-nucleating particle concentrations were also measured during one flight and showed a decrease with height, and concentrations were consistent with a relationship to FBAPs established previously at the forested surface site below. The vertical distributions of FBAPs measured on five flights were also compared with those for bacteria, fungal spores, and pollen predicted from the EMAC global chemistry–climate model for the same geographic region.« less

Extinction risks forced by climatic change and intraspecific variation in the thermal physiology of a tropical lizard.

PubMed

Pontes-da-Silva, Emerson; Magnusson, William E; Sinervo, Barry; Caetano, Gabriel H; Miles, Donald B; Colli, Guarino R; Diele-Viegas, Luisa M; Fenker, Jessica; Santos, Juan C; Werneck, Fernanda P

2018-04-01

Temperature increases can impact biodiversity and predicting their effects is one of the main challenges facing global climate-change research. Ectotherms are sensitive to temperature change and, although predictions indicate that tropical species are highly vulnerable to global warming, they remain one of the least studied groups with respect to the extent of physiological variation and local extinction risks. We model the extinction risks for a tropical heliothermic teiid lizard (Kentropyx calcarata) integrating previously obtained information on intraspecific phylogeographic structure, eco-physiological traits and contemporary species distributions in the Amazon rainforest and its ecotone to the Cerrado savannah. We also investigated how thermal-biology traits vary throughout the species' geographic range and the consequences of such variation for lineage vulnerability. We show substantial variation in thermal tolerance of individuals among thermally distinct sites. Thermal critical limits were highly correlated with operative environmental temperatures. Our physiological/climatic model predicted relative extinction risks for local populations within clades of K. calcarata for 2050 ranging between 26.1% and 70.8%, while for 2070, extinction risks ranged from 52.8% to 92.8%. Our results support the hypothesis that tropical-lizard taxa are at high risk of local extinction caused by increasing temperatures. However, the thermo-physiological differences found across the species' distribution suggest that local adaptation may allow persistence of this tropical ectotherm in global warming scenarios. These results will serve as basis to further research to investigate the strength of local adaptation to climate change. Persistence of Kentropyx calcarata also depends on forest preservation, but the Amazon rainforest is currently under high deforestation rates. We argue that higher conservation priority is necessary so the Amazon rainforest can fulfill its capacity to absorb the impacts of temperature increase on tropical ectotherms during climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abundance of fluorescent biological aerosol particles at temperatures conducive to the formation of mixed-phase and cirrus clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Twohy, Cynthia H.; McMeeking, Gavin R.; DeMott, Paul J.; McCluskey, Christina S.; Hill, Thomas C. J.; Burrows, Susannah M.; Kulkarni, Gourihar R.; Tanarhte, Meryem; Kafle, Durga N.; Toohey, Darin W.

2016-07-01

Some types of biological particles are known to nucleate ice at warmer temperatures than mineral dust, with the potential to influence cloud microphysical properties and climate. However, the prevalence of these particle types above the atmospheric boundary layer is not well known. Many types of biological particles fluoresce when exposed to ultraviolet light, and the Wideband Integrated Bioaerosol Sensor takes advantage of this characteristic to perform real-time measurements of fluorescent biological aerosol particles (FBAPs). This instrument was flown on the National Center for Atmospheric Research Gulfstream V aircraft to measure concentrations of fluorescent biological particles from different potential sources and at various altitudes over the US western plains in early autumn. Clear-air number concentrations of FBAPs between 0.8 and 12 µm diameter usually decreased with height and generally were about 10-100 L-1 in the continental boundary layer but always much lower at temperatures colder than 255 K in the free troposphere. At intermediate temperatures where biological ice-nucleating particles may influence mixed-phase cloud formation (255 K ≤ T ≤ 270 K), concentrations of fluorescent particles were the most variable and were occasionally near boundary-layer concentrations. Predicted vertical distributions of ice-nucleating particle concentrations based on FBAP measurements in this temperature regime sometimes reached typical concentrations of primary ice in clouds but were often much lower. If convection was assumed to lift boundary-layer FBAPs without losses to the free troposphere, better agreement between predicted ice-nucleating particle concentrations and typical ice crystal concentrations was achieved. Ice-nucleating particle concentrations were also measured during one flight and showed a decrease with height, and concentrations were consistent with a relationship to FBAPs established previously at the forested surface site below. The vertical distributions of FBAPs measured on five flights were also compared with those for bacteria, fungal spores, and pollen predicted from the EMAC global chemistry-climate model for the same geographic region.

Temperature Prediction Model for Bone Drilling Based on Density Distribution and In Vivo Experiments for Minimally Invasive Robotic Cochlear Implantation.

PubMed

Feldmann, Arne; Anso, Juan; Bell, Brett; Williamson, Tom; Gavaghan, Kate; Gerber, Nicolas; Rohrbach, Helene; Weber, Stefan; Zysset, Philippe

2016-05-01

Surgical robots have been proposed ex vivo to drill precise holes in the temporal bone for minimally invasive cochlear implantation. The main risk of the procedure is damage of the facial nerve due to mechanical interaction or due to temperature elevation during the drilling process. To evaluate the thermal risk of the drilling process, a simplified model is proposed which aims to enable an assessment of risk posed to the facial nerve for a given set of constant process parameters for different mastoid bone densities. The model uses the bone density distribution along the drilling trajectory in the mastoid bone to calculate a time dependent heat production function at the tip of the drill bit. Using a time dependent moving point source Green's function, the heat equation can be solved at a certain point in space so that the resulting temperatures can be calculated over time. The model was calibrated and initially verified with in vivo temperature data. The data was collected in minimally invasive robotic drilling of 12 holes in four different sheep. The sheep were anesthetized and the temperature elevations were measured with a thermocouple which was inserted in a previously drilled hole next to the planned drilling trajectory. Bone density distributions were extracted from pre-operative CT data by averaging Hounsfield values over the drill bit diameter. Post-operative [Formula: see text]CT data was used to verify the drilling accuracy of the trajectories. The comparison of measured and calculated temperatures shows a very good match for both heating and cooling phases. The average prediction error of the maximum temperature was less than 0.7 °C and the average root mean square error was approximately 0.5 °C. To analyze potential thermal damage, the model was used to calculate temperature profiles and cumulative equivalent minutes at 43 °C at a minimal distance to the facial nerve. For the selected drilling parameters, temperature elevation profiles and cumulative equivalent minutes suggest that thermal elevation of this minimally invasive cochlear implantation surgery may pose a risk to the facial nerve, especially in sclerotic or high density mastoid bones. Optimized drilling parameters need to be evaluated and the model could be used for future risk evaluation.

Modelling the spatial distribution of Fasciola hepatica in bovines using decision tree, logistic regression and GIS query approaches for Brazil.

PubMed

Bennema, S C; Molento, M B; Scholte, R G; Carvalho, O S; Pritsch, I

2017-11-01

Fascioliasis is a condition caused by the trematode Fasciola hepatica. In this paper, the spatial distribution of F. hepatica in bovines in Brazil was modelled using a decision tree approach and a logistic regression, combined with a geographic information system (GIS) query. In the decision tree and the logistic model, isothermality had the strongest influence on disease prevalence. Also, the 50-year average precipitation in the warmest quarter of the year was included as a risk factor, having a negative influence on the parasite prevalence. The risk maps developed using both techniques, showed a predicted higher prevalence mainly in the South of Brazil. The prediction performance seemed to be high, but both techniques failed to reach a high accuracy in predicting the medium and high prevalence classes to the entire country. The GIS query map, based on the range of isothermality, minimum temperature of coldest month, precipitation of warmest quarter of the year, altitude and the average dailyland surface temperature, showed a possibility of presence of F. hepatica in a very large area. The risk maps produced using these methods can be used to focus activities of animal and public health programmes, even on non-evaluated F. hepatica areas.

Global warming and the regional persistence of a temperate-zone insect (Tenodera sinensis)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rooney, T.P.; Smith, A.T.; Hurd, L.E.

Models based on the paleoecological record predict that animals in temperate regions will respond to global warming by migrating poleward to remain within their temperature tolerance ranges. The effect of global warming on invertebrates is of great concern because of their critical role in ecosystem structure and function. Migration poses a problem for many species because of their limited dispersal abilities. The life cycle of a typical temperature zone univoltine insect. Tenodera sinensis (Mantodea: Mantidae) is constrained by degree-days per season: too few prevent maturation before the killing frost in the autumn; too many allow egg hatch before a killingmore » frost. We used field and laboratory observation on the life history and ecology of this species to predict the effect of global warming on the regional distribution of this insect by the end of the next century. Based on the simplified, best-case, biological assumptions of our model, the geographical range of T. sinensis in eastern North America would be compressed toward the northern part of its present contiguous regional distribution. This and other univoltine temperate species with long maturation periods and low vagility could face regional extinction if global warming predictions are accurate. 61 refs., 3 figs.« less

Predicted percentage dissatisfied with ankle draft.

PubMed

Liu, S; Schiavon, S; Kabanshi, A; Nazaroff, W W

2017-07-01

Draft is unwanted local convective cooling. The draft risk model of Fanger et al. (Energy and Buildings 12, 21-39, 1988) estimates the percentage of people dissatisfied with air movement due to overcooling at the neck. There is no model for predicting draft at ankles, which is more relevant to stratified air distribution systems such as underfloor air distribution (UFAD) and displacement ventilation (DV). We developed a model for predicted percentage dissatisfied with ankle draft (PPD AD ) based on laboratory experiments with 110 college students. We assessed the effect on ankle draft of various combinations of air speed (nominal range: 0.1-0.6 m/s), temperature (nominal range: 16.5-22.5°C), turbulence intensity (at ankles), sex, and clothing insulation (<0.7 clo; lower legs uncovered and covered). The results show that whole-body thermal sensation and air speed at ankles are the dominant parameters affecting draft. The seated subjects accepted a vertical temperature difference of up to 8°C between ankles (0.1 m) and head (1.1 m) at neutral whole-body thermal sensation, 5°C more than the maximum difference recommended in existing standards. The developed ankle draft model can be implemented in thermal comfort and air diffuser testing standards. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Coupled thermal-fluid analysis with flowpath-cavity interaction in a gas turbine engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitzpatrick, John Nathan

This study seeks to improve the understanding of inlet conditions of a large rotor-stator cavity in a turbofan engine, often referred to as the drive cone cavity (DCC). The inlet flow is better understood through a higher fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of the inlet to the cavity, and a coupled finite element (FE) thermal to CFD fluid analysis of the cavity in order to accurately predict engine component temperatures. Accurately predicting temperature distribution in the cavity is important because temperatures directly affect the material properties including Young's modulus, yield strength, fatigue strength, creep properties. All of these properties directly affect the life of critical engine components. In addition, temperatures cause thermal expansion which changes clearances and in turn affects engine efficiency. The DCC is fed from the last stage of the high pressure compressor. One of its primary functions is to purge the air over the rotor wall to prevent it from overheating. Aero-thermal conditions within the DCC cavity are particularly challenging to predict due to the complex air flow and high heat transfer in the rotating component. Thus, in order to accurately predict metal temperatures a two-way coupled CFD-FE analysis is needed. Historically, when the cavity airflow is modeled for engine design purposes, the inlet condition has been over-simplified for the CFD analysis which impacts the results, particularly in the region around the compressor disc rim. The inlet is typically simplified by circumferentially averaging the velocity field at the inlet to the cavity which removes the effect of pressure wakes from the upstream rotor blades. The way in which these non-axisymmetric flow characteristics affect metal temperatures is not well understood. In addition, a constant air temperature scaled from a previous analysis is used as the simplified cavity inlet air temperature. Therefore, the objectives of this study are: (a) model the DCC cavity with a more physically representative inlet condition while coupling the solid thermal analysis and compressible air flow analysis that includes the fluid velocity, pressure, and temperature fields; (b) run a coupled analysis whose boundary conditions come from computational models, rather than thermocouple data; (c) validate the model using available experimental data; and (d) based on the validation, determine if the model can be used to predict air inlet and metal temperatures for new engine geometries. Verification with experimental results showed that the coupled analysis with the 3D no-bolt CFD model with predictive boundary conditions, over-predicted the HP6 offtake temperature by 16k. The maximum error was an over-prediction of 50k while the average error was 17k. The predictive model with 3D bolts also predicted cavity temperatures with an average error of 17k. For the two CFD models with predicted boundary conditions, the case without bolts performed better than the case with bolts. This is due to the flow errors caused by placing stationary bolts in a rotating reference frame. Therefore it is recommended that this type of analysis only be attempted for drive cone cavities with no bolts or shielded bolts.

Predictive models and spatial variations of vital capacity in healthy people from 6 to 84 years old in China based on geographical factors.

PubMed

He, Jinwei; Ge, Miao; Wang, Congxia; Jiang, Naigui; Zhang, Mingxin; Yun, Pujun

2014-07-01

The aim of this study was to provide a scientific basic for a unified standard of the reference value of vital capacity (VC) of healthy subjects from 6 and 84 years old in China. The normal reference value of VC was correlated to seven geographical factors, including altitude (X1), annual duration of sunshine (X2), annual mean air temperature (X3), annual mean relative humidity (X4), annual precipitation amount (X5), annual air temperature range (X6) and annual mean wind speed (X7). Predictive models were established by five different linear and nonlinear methods. The best models were selected by t-test. The geographical distribution map of VC in different age groups can be interpolated by Kriging's method using ArcGIS software. It was found that the correlation of VC and geographical factors in China was quite significant, especially for both males and females aged from 6 to 45. The best models were built for different age groups. The geographical distribution map shows the spatial variations of VC in China precisely. The VC of healthy subjects can be simulated by the best model or acquired from the geographical distribution map provided the geographical factors for that city or county of China are known.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mensah, P.F.; Stubblefield, M.A.; Pang, S.S.

Thermal characterization of a prepreg fabric used as the bonding material to join composite pipes has been modeled and solved using finite difference modeling (FDM) numerical analysis technique for one dimensional heat transfer through the material. Temperature distributions within the composite pipe joint are predicted. The prepreg material has temperature dependent thermal properties. Thus the resulting boundary value equations are non linear and analytical solutions cannot be obtained. This characterization is pertinent in determining the temperature profile in the prepreg layer during the manufacturing process for optimization purposes. In addition, in order to assess the effects of induced thermal stressmore » in the joint, the temperature profile is needed. The methodology employed in this analysis compares favorably with data from experimentation.« less

Steady and unsteady calculations on thermal striping phenomena in triple-parallel jet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Y. Q.; Merzari, E.; Thomas, J. W.

2017-02-01

The phenomenon of thermal striping is encountered in liquid metal cooled fast reactors (LMFR), in which temperature fluctuation due to convective mixing between hot and cold fluids can lead to a possibility of crack initiation and propagation in the structure due to high cycle thermal fatigue. Using sodium experiments of parallel triple jets configuration performed by Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) as benchmark, numerical simulations were carried out to evaluate the temperature fluctuation characteristics in fluid and the transfer characteristics of temperature fluctuation from fluid to structure, which is important to assess the potential thermal fatigue damage. In this study,more » both steady (RANS) and unsteady (URANS, LES) methods were applied to predict the temperature fluctuations of thermal striping. The parametric studies on the effects of mesh density and boundary conditions on the accuracy of the overall solutions were also conducted. The velocity, temperature and temperature fluctuation intensity distribution were compared with the experimental data. As expected, steady calculation has limited success in predicting the thermal–hydraulic characteristics of the thermal striping, highlighting the limitations of the RANS approach in unsteady heat transfer simulations. The unsteady results exhibited reasonably good agreement with experimental results for temperature fluctuation intensity, as well as the average temperature and velocity components at the measurement locations.« less

Ambient temperature and added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in California from 1999 to 2009.

PubMed

Sherbakov, Toki; Malig, Brian; Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Basu, Rupa

2018-01-01

Investigators have examined how heat waves or incremental changes in temperature affect health outcomes, but few have examined both simultaneously. We utilized distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) to explore temperature associations and evaluate possible added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in 16 climate zones throughout California from May through October 1999-2009. We define heat waves as a period when daily mean temperatures were above the zone- and month-specific 95th percentile for at least two consecutive days. DLNMs were used to estimate climate zone-specific non-linear temperature and heat wave effects, which were then combined using random effects meta-analysis to produce an overall estimate for each. With higher temperatures, admissions for acute renal failure, appendicitis, dehydration, ischemic stroke, mental health, non-infectious enteritis, and primary diabetes were significantly increased, with added effects from heat waves observed for acute renal failure and dehydration. Higher temperatures also predicted statistically significant decreases in hypertension admissions, respiratory admissions, and respiratory diseases with secondary diagnoses of diabetes, though heat waves independently predicted an added increase in risk for both respiratory types. Our findings provide evidence that both heat wave and temperature exposures can exert effects independently. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temperature-Correlated Changes in Phytoplankton Community Structure Are Restricted to Polar Waters.

PubMed

Ward, Ben A

2015-01-01

Globally distributed observations of size-fractionated chlorophyll a and temperature were used to incorporate temperature dependence into an existing semi-empirical model of phytoplankton community size structure. The additional temperature-dependent term significantly increased the model's ability to both reproduce and predict observations of chlorophyll a size-fractionation at temperatures below 2°C. The most notable improvements were in the smallest (picoplankton) size-class, for which overall model fit was more than doubled, and predictive skill was increased by approximately 40%. The model was subsequently applied to generate global maps for three phytoplankton size classes, on the basis of satellite-derived estimates of surface chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature. Polar waters were associated with marked decline in the chlorophyll a biomass of the smallest cells, relative to lower latitude waters of equivalent total chlorophyll a. In the same regions a complementary increase was seen in the chlorophyll a biomass of larger size classes. These findings suggest that a warming and stratifying ocean will see a poleward expansion of the habitat range of the smallest phytoplankton, with the possible displacement of some larger groups that currently dominate. There was no evidence of a strong temperature dependence in tropical or sub-tropical regions, suggesting that future direct temperature effects on community structure at lower latitudes may be small.

Heat transfer predictions for two turbine nozzle geometries at high Reynolds and Mach numbers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyle, R. J.; Jackson, R.

1995-01-01

Predictions of turbine vane and endwall heat transfer and pressure distributions are compared with experimental measurements for two vane geometries. The differences in geometries were due to differences in the hub profile, and both geometries were derived from the design of a high rim speed turbine (HRST). The experiments were conducted in the Isentropic Light Piston Facility (ILPF) at Pyestock at a Reynolds number of 5.3 x 10(exp 6), a Mach number of 1.2, and a wall-to-gas temperature ratio of 0.66. Predictions are given for two different steady-state three-dimensional Navier-Stokes computational analyses. C-type meshes were used, and algebraic models were employed to calculate the turbulent eddy viscosity. The effects of different turbulence modeling assumptions on the predicted results are examined. Comparisons are also given between predicted and measured total pressure distributions behind the vane. The combination of realistic engine geometries and flow conditions proved to be quite demanding in terms of the convergence of the CFD solutions. An appropriate method of grid generation, which resulted in consistently converged CFD solutions, was identified.

Predicted deep-sea coral habitat suitability for the U.S. West coast.

PubMed

Guinotte, John M; Davies, Andrew J

2014-01-01

Regional scale habitat suitability models provide finer scale resolution and more focused predictions of where organisms may occur. Previous modelling approaches have focused primarily on local and/or global scales, while regional scale models have been relatively few. In this study, regional scale predictive habitat models are presented for deep-sea corals for the U.S. West Coast (California, Oregon and Washington). Model results are intended to aid in future research or mapping efforts and to assess potential coral habitat suitability both within and outside existing bottom trawl closures (i.e. Essential Fish Habitat (EFH)) and identify suitable habitat within U.S. National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS). Deep-sea coral habitat suitability was modelled at 500 m×500 m spatial resolution using a range of physical, chemical and environmental variables known or thought to influence the distribution of deep-sea corals. Using a spatial partitioning cross-validation approach, maximum entropy models identified slope, temperature, salinity and depth as important predictors for most deep-sea coral taxa. Large areas of highly suitable deep-sea coral habitat were predicted both within and outside of existing bottom trawl closures and NMS boundaries. Predicted habitat suitability over regional scales are not currently able to identify coral areas with pin point accuracy and probably overpredict actual coral distribution due to model limitations and unincorporated variables (i.e. data on distribution of hard substrate) that are known to limit their distribution. Predicted habitat results should be used in conjunction with multibeam bathymetry, geological mapping and other tools to guide future research efforts to areas with the highest probability of harboring deep-sea corals. Field validation of predicted habitat is needed to quantify model accuracy, particularly in areas that have not been sampled.

Predicted Deep-Sea Coral Habitat Suitability for the U.S. West Coast

PubMed Central

Guinotte, John M.; Davies, Andrew J.

2014-01-01

Regional scale habitat suitability models provide finer scale resolution and more focused predictions of where organisms may occur. Previous modelling approaches have focused primarily on local and/or global scales, while regional scale models have been relatively few. In this study, regional scale predictive habitat models are presented for deep-sea corals for the U.S. West Coast (California, Oregon and Washington). Model results are intended to aid in future research or mapping efforts and to assess potential coral habitat suitability both within and outside existing bottom trawl closures (i.e. Essential Fish Habitat (EFH)) and identify suitable habitat within U.S. National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS). Deep-sea coral habitat suitability was modelled at 500 m×500 m spatial resolution using a range of physical, chemical and environmental variables known or thought to influence the distribution of deep-sea corals. Using a spatial partitioning cross-validation approach, maximum entropy models identified slope, temperature, salinity and depth as important predictors for most deep-sea coral taxa. Large areas of highly suitable deep-sea coral habitat were predicted both within and outside of existing bottom trawl closures and NMS boundaries. Predicted habitat suitability over regional scales are not currently able to identify coral areas with pin point accuracy and probably overpredict actual coral distribution due to model limitations and unincorporated variables (i.e. data on distribution of hard substrate) that are known to limit their distribution. Predicted habitat results should be used in conjunction with multibeam bathymetry, geological mapping and other tools to guide future research efforts to areas with the highest probability of harboring deep-sea corals. Field validation of predicted habitat is needed to quantify model accuracy, particularly in areas that have not been sampled. PMID:24759613

Mapping the potential distribution of the invasive Red Shiner, Cyprinella lutrensis (Teleostei: Cyprinidae) across waterways of the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poulos, Helen M.; Chernoff, Barry; Fuller, Pam L.; Butman, David

2012-01-01

Predicting the future spread of non-native aquatic species continues to be a high priority for natural resource managers striving to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function. Modeling the potential distributions of alien aquatic species through spatially explicit mapping is an increasingly important tool for risk assessment and prediction. Habitat modeling also facilitates the identification of key environmental variables influencing species distributions. We modeled the potential distribution of an aggressive invasive minnow, the red shiner (Cyprinella lutrensis), in waterways of the conterminous United States using maximum entropy (Maxent). We used inventory records from the USGS Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database, native records for C. lutrensis from museum collections, and a geographic information system of 20 raster climatic and environmental variables to produce a map of potential red shiner habitat. Summer climatic variables were the most important environmental predictors of C. lutrensis distribution, which was consistent with the high temperature tolerance of this species. Results from this study provide insights into the locations and environmental conditions in the US that are susceptible to red shiner invasion.

Gas Hydrate Formation Probability Distributions: The Effect of Shear and Comparisons with Nucleation Theory.

PubMed

May, Eric F; Lim, Vincent W; Metaxas, Peter J; Du, Jianwei; Stanwix, Paul L; Rowland, Darren; Johns, Michael L; Haandrikman, Gert; Crosby, Daniel; Aman, Zachary M

2018-03-13

Gas hydrate formation is a stochastic phenomenon of considerable significance for any risk-based approach to flow assurance in the oil and gas industry. In principle, well-established results from nucleation theory offer the prospect of predictive models for hydrate formation probability in industrial production systems. In practice, however, heuristics are relied on when estimating formation risk for a given flowline subcooling or when quantifying kinetic hydrate inhibitor (KHI) performance. Here, we present statistically significant measurements of formation probability distributions for natural gas hydrate systems under shear, which are quantitatively compared with theoretical predictions. Distributions with over 100 points were generated using low-mass, Peltier-cooled pressure cells, cycled in temperature between 40 and -5 °C at up to 2 K·min -1 and analyzed with robust algorithms that automatically identify hydrate formation and initial growth rates from dynamic pressure data. The application of shear had a significant influence on the measured distributions: at 700 rpm mass-transfer limitations were minimal, as demonstrated by the kinetic growth rates observed. The formation probability distributions measured at this shear rate had mean subcoolings consistent with theoretical predictions and steel-hydrate-water contact angles of 14-26°. However, the experimental distributions were substantially wider than predicted, suggesting that phenomena acting on macroscopic length scales are responsible for much of the observed stochastic formation. Performance tests of a KHI provided new insights into how such chemicals can reduce the risk of hydrate blockage in flowlines. Our data demonstrate that the KHI not only reduces the probability of formation (by both shifting and sharpening the distribution) but also reduces hydrate growth rates by a factor of 2.

The role of correlations in uncertainty quantification of transportation relevant fuel models

DOE PAGES

Fridlyand, Aleksandr; Johnson, Matthew S.; Goldsborough, S. Scott; ...

2017-02-03

Large reaction mechanisms are often used to describe the combustion behavior of transportation-relevant fuels like gasoline, where these are typically represented by surrogate blends, e.g., n-heptane/iso-octane/toluene. We describe efforts to quantify the uncertainty in the predictions of such mechanisms at realistic engine conditions, seeking to better understand the robustness of the model as well as the important reaction pathways and their impacts on combustion behavior. In this work, we examine the importance of taking into account correlations among reactions that utilize the same rate rules and those with multiple product channels on forward propagation of uncertainty by Monte Carlo simulations.more » Automated means are developed to generate the uncertainty factor assignment for a detailed chemical kinetic mechanism, by first uniquely identifying each reacting species, then sorting each of the reactions based on the rate rule utilized. Simulation results reveal that in the low temperature combustion regime for iso-octane, the majority of the uncertainty in the model predictions can be attributed to low temperature reactions of the fuel sub-mechanism. The foundational, or small-molecule chemistry (C 0-C 4) only contributes significantly to uncertainties in the predictions at the highest temperatures (Tc=900 K). Accounting for correlations between important reactions is shown to produce non-negligible differences in the estimates of uncertainty. Including correlations among reactions that use the same rate rules increases uncertainty in the model predictions, while accounting for correlations among reactions with multiple branches decreases uncertainty in some cases. Significant non-linear response is observed in the model predictions depending on how the probability distributions of the uncertain rate constants are defined.Finally, we concluded that care must be exercised in defining these probability distributions in order to reduce bias, and physically unrealistic estimates in the forward propagation of uncertainty for a range of UQ activities.« less

Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China.

PubMed

Wang, Rulin; Li, Qing; He, Shisong; Liu, Yuan; Wang, Mingtian; Jiang, Gan

2018-01-01

Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China. Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation. The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa. The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.

Spatial variation in the climatic predictors of species compositional turnover and endemism

PubMed Central

Di Virgilio, Giovanni; Laffan, Shawn W; Ebach, Malte C; Chapple, David G

2014-01-01

Previous research focusing on broad-scale or geographically invariant species-environment dependencies suggest that temperature-related variables explain more of the variation in reptile distributions than precipitation. However, species–environment relationships may exhibit considerable spatial variation contingent upon the geographic nuances that vary between locations. Broad-scale, geographically invariant analyses may mask this local variation and their findings may not generalize to different locations at local scales. We assess how reptile–climatic relationships change with varying spatial scale, location, and direction. Since the spatial distributions of diversity and endemism hotspots differ for other species groups, we also assess whether reptile species turnover and endemism hotspots are influenced differently by climatic predictors. Using New Zealand reptiles as an example, the variation in species turnover, endemism and turnover in climatic variables was measured using directional moving window analyses, rotated through 360°. Correlations between the species turnover, endemism and climatic turnover results generated by each rotation of the moving window were analysed using multivariate generalized linear models applied at national, regional, and local scales. At national-scale, temperature turnover consistently exhibited the greatest influence on species turnover and endemism, but model predictive capacity was low (typically r2 = 0.05, P < 0.001). At regional scales the relative influence of temperature and precipitation turnover varied between regions, although model predictive capacity was also generally low. Climatic turnover was considerably more predictive of species turnover and endemism at local scales (e.g., r2 = 0.65, P < 0.001). While temperature turnover had the greatest effect in one locale (the northern North Island), there was substantial variation in the relative influence of temperature and precipitation predictors in the remaining four locales. Species turnover and endemism hotspots often occurred in different locations. Climatic predictors had a smaller influence on endemism. Our results caution against assuming that variability in temperature will always be most predictive of reptile biodiversity across different spatial scales, locations and directions. The influence of climatic turnover on the species turnover and endemism of other taxa may exhibit similar patterns of spatial variation. Such intricate variation might be discerned more readily if studies at broad scales are complemented by geographically variant, local-scale analyses. PMID:25473479

Computational design and refinement of self-heating lithium ion batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiao-Guang; Zhang, Guangsheng; Wang, Chao-Yang

2016-10-01

The recently discovered self-heating lithium ion battery has shown rapid self-heating from subzero temperatures and superior power thereafter, delivering a practical solution to poor battery performance at low temperatures. Here, we describe and validate an electrochemical-thermal coupled model developed specifically for computational design and improvement of the self-heating Li-ion battery (SHLB) where nickel foils are embedded in its structure. Predicting internal cell characteristics, such as current, temperature and Li-concentration distributions, the model is used to discover key design factors affecting the time and energy needed for self-heating and to explore advanced cell designs with the highest self-heating efficiency. It is found that ohmic heat generated in the nickel foil accounts for the majority of internal heat generation, resulting in a large internal temperature gradient from the nickel foil toward the outer cell surface. The large through-plane temperature gradient leads to highly non-uniform current distribution, and more importantly, is found to be the decisive factor affecting the heating time and energy consumption. A multi-sheet cell design is thus proposed and demonstrated to substantially minimize the temperature gradient, achieving 30% more rapid self-heating with 27% less energy consumption than those reported in the literature.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hudson, W.G.

Scapteriscus vicinus is the most important pest of turf and pasture grasses in Florida. This study develops a method of correlating sample results with true population density and provides the first quantitative information on spatial distribution and movement patterns of mole crickets. Three basic techniques for sampling mole crickets were compared: soil flushes, soil corer, and pitfall trapping. No statistical difference was found between the soil corer and soil flushing. Soil flushing was shown to be more sensitive to changes in population density than pitfall trapping. No technique was effective for sampling adults. Regression analysis provided a means of adjustingmore » for the effects of soil moisture and showed soil temperature to be unimportant in predicting efficiency of flush sampling. Cesium-137 was used to label females for subsequent location underground. Comparison of mean distance to nearest neighbor with the distance predicted by a random distribution model showed that the observed distance in the spring was significantly greater than hypothesized (Student's T-test, p < 0.05). Fall adult nearest neighbor distance was not different than predicted by the random distribution hypothesis.« less

Predicting properties of gas and solid streams by intrinsic kinetics of fast pyrolysis of wood

DOE PAGES

Klinger, Jordan; Bar-Ziv, Ezra; Shonnard, David; ...

2015-12-12

Pyrolysis has the potential to create a biocrude oil from biomass sources that can be used as fuel or as feedstock for subsequent upgrading to hydrocarbon fuels or other chemicals. The product distribution/composition, however, is linked to the biomass source. This work investigates the products formed from pyrolysis of woody biomass with a previously developed chemical kinetics model. Different woody feedstocks reported in prior literature are placed on a common basis (moisture, ash, fixed carbon free) and normalized by initial elemental composition through ultimate analysis. Observed product distributions over the full devolatilization range are explored, reconstructed by the model, andmore » verified with independent experimental data collected with a microwave-assisted pyrolysis system. These trends include production of permanent gas (CO, CO 2), char, and condensable (oil, water) species. Elementary compositions of these streams are also investigated. As a result, close agreement between literature data, model predictions, and independent experimental data indicate that the proposed model/method is able to predict the ideal distribution from fast pyrolysis given reaction temperature, residence time, and feedstock composition.« less

Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe.

PubMed

Williams, Stephen E; Bolitho, Elizabeth E; Fox, Samantha

2003-09-22

It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change.

Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.

The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity aremore » capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.« less

Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

PubMed

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K; Noon, Barry R

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971-2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981-2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040-2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

Environmental niche models for riverine desert fishes and their similarity according to phylogeny and functionality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitney, James E.; Whittier, Joanna B.; Paukert, Craig P.

2017-01-01

Environmental filtering and competitive exclusion are hypotheses frequently invoked in explaining species' environmental niches (i.e., geographic distributions). A key assumption in both hypotheses is that the functional niche (i.e., species traits) governs the environmental niche, but few studies have rigorously evaluated this assumption. Furthermore, phylogeny could be associated with these hypotheses if it is predictive of functional niche similarity via phylogenetic signal or convergent evolution, or of environmental niche similarity through phylogenetic attraction or repulsion. The objectives of this study were to investigate relationships between environmental niches, functional niches, and phylogenies of fishes of the Upper (UCRB) and Lower (LCRB) Colorado River Basins of southwestern North America. We predicted that functionally similar species would have similar environmental niches (i.e., environmental filtering) and that closely related species would be functionally similar (i.e., phylogenetic signal) and possess similar environmental niches (i.e., phylogenetic attraction). Environmental niches were quantified using environmental niche modeling, and functional similarity was determined using functional trait data. Nonnatives in the UCRB provided the only support for environmental filtering, which resulted from several warmwater nonnatives having dam number as a common predictor of their distributions, whereas several cool- and coldwater nonnatives shared mean annual air temperature as an important distributional predictor. Phylogenetic signal was supported for both natives and nonnatives in both basins. Lastly, phylogenetic attraction was only supported for native fishes in the LCRB and for nonnative fishes in the UCRB. Our results indicated that functional similarity was heavily influenced by evolutionary history, but that phylogenetic relationships and functional traits may not always predict the environmental distribution of species. However, the similarity of environmental niches among warmwater centrarchids, ictalurids, fundulids, and poeciliids in the UCRB indicated that dam removals could influence the distribution of these nonnatives simultaneously, thus providing greater conservation benefits. However, this same management strategy would have more limited effects on nonnative salmonids, catostomids, and percids with colder temperature preferences, thus necessitating other management strategies to control these species.

Embedded Carbon Nanotube Networks for Damage Precursor Detection

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

3Thostenson, E. T.; Chou, T.-W. Carbon Nanotube Networks: Sensing of Distributed Strain and Damage for Life Prediction and Self - Healing . Advanced...3 Figure 2. Rubber dogbone mold...room temperature vulcanizing rubber to create the final mold. The rubber was mixed with Tin NW Catalyst at a 10:1 ratio. The viscous liquid rubber

Applications of a New England stream temperature model to evaluate distribution of thermal regimes and sensitivity to change in riparian condition

EPA Science Inventory

We have applied a statistical stream network (SSN) model to predict stream thermal metrics (summer monthly medians, growing season maximum magnitude and timing, and daily rates of change) across New England nontidal streams and rivers, excluding northern Maine watersheds that ext...

EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE AND PORE SIZE ON THE HYDRAULIC PROPERTIES AND FLOW OF A HYDROCARBON OIL IN THE SUBSURFACE

EPA Science Inventory

Capillary pressure relationships in a porous medium determine the distribution of immiscible fluids under static conditions and can largely influence the movement of the fluids when the system is not at equilibrium. Theory predicts that for a given porous medium, the effect of di...

Creep Life Prediction of Ceramic Components Using the Finite Element Based Integrated Design Program (CARES/Creep)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jadaan, Osama M.; Powers, Lynn M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1997-01-01

The desirable properties of ceramics at high temperatures have generated interest in their use for structural applications such as in advanced turbine systems. Design lives for such systems can exceed 10,000 hours. Such long life requirements necessitate subjecting the components to relatively low stresses. The combination of high temperatures and low stresses typically places failure for monolithic ceramics in the creep regime. The objective of this work is to present a design methodology for predicting the lifetimes of structural components subjected to multiaxial creep loading. This methodology utilizes commercially available finite element packages and takes into account the time varying creep stress distributions (stress relaxation). In this methodology, the creep life of a component is divided into short time steps, during which, the stress and strain distributions are assumed constant. The damage, D, is calculated for each time step based on a modified Monkman-Grant creep rupture criterion. For components subjected to predominantly tensile loading, failure is assumed to occur when the normalized accumulated damage at any point in the component is greater than or equal to unity.

TORO II simulations of induction heating in ferromagnetic materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adkins, D.R.; Gartling, D.K.; Kelley, J.B.

TORO II is a finite element computer program that is used in the simulation of electric and magnetic fields. This code, which was developed at Sandia National Laboratories, has been coupled with a finite element thermal code, COYOTE II, to predict temperature profiles in inductively heated parts. The development of an effective technique to account for the nonlinear behavior of the magnetic permeability in ferromagnetic parts is one of the more difficult aspects of solving induction heating problems. In the TORO II code, nonlinear, spatially varying magnetic permeability is approximated by an effective permeability on an element-by-element basis that effectivelymore » provides the same energy deposition that is produced when the true permeability is used. This approximation has been found to give an accurate estimate of the volumetric heating distribution in the part, and predicted temperature distributions have been experimentally verified using a medium carbon steel and a 10kW industrial induction heating unit. Work on the model was funded through a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) between the Department of Energy and General Motors` Delphi Saginaw Steering Systems.« less

Variation in the sensitivity of organismal body temperature to climate change over local and geographic scales.

PubMed

Gilman, Sarah E; Wethey, David S; Helmuth, Brian

2006-06-20

Global climate change is expected to have broad ecological consequences for species and communities. Attempts to forecast these consequences usually assume that changes in air or water temperature will translate into equivalent changes in a species' organismal body temperature. This simple change is unlikely because an organism's body temperature is determined by a complex series of interactions between the organism and its environment. Using a biophysical model, validated with 5 years of field observations, we examined the relationship between environmental temperature change and body temperature of the intertidal mussel Mytilus californianus over 1,600 km of its geographic distribution. We found that at all locations examined simulated changes in air or water temperature always produced less than equivalent changes in the daily maximum mussel body temperature. Moreover, the magnitude of body temperature change was highly variable, both within and among locations. A simulated 1 degrees C increase in air or water temperature raised the maximum monthly average of daily body temperature maxima by 0.07-0.92 degrees C, depending on the geographic location, vertical position, and temperature variable. We combined these sensitivities with predicted climate change for 2100 and calculated increases in monthly average maximum body temperature of 0.97-4.12 degrees C, depending on location and climate change scenario. Thus geographic variation in body temperature sensitivity can modulate species' experiences of climate change and must be considered when predicting the biological consequences of climate change.

Implications of climate change for the fishes of the British Isles.

PubMed

Graham, C T; Harrod, C

2009-04-01

Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate-change-related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community-level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold-adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm-adapted species. Increased temperatures are likely to favour cool-adapted (e.g. Perca fluviatilis) and warm-adapted freshwater fishes (e.g. roach Rutilus rutilus and other cyprinids) whose distribution and reproductive success may currently be constrained by temperature rather than by cold-adapted species (e.g. salmonids). Species that occur in Britain and Ireland that are at the edge of their distribution will be most affected, both negatively and positively. Populations of conservation importance (e.g.Salvelinus alpinus and Coregonus spp.) may decline irreversibly. However, changes in food-web dynamics and physiological adaptation, for example because of climate change, may obscure or alter predicted responses. The residual inertia in climate systems is such that even a complete cessation in emissions would still leave fishes exposed to continued climate change for at least half a century. Hence, regardless of the success or failure of programmes aimed at curbing climate change, major changes in fish communities can be expected over the next 50 years with a concomitant need to adapt management strategies accordingly.

Improving aerosol vertical retrieval for NWP application: Studying the impact of IR-sensed aerosol on data assimilation systems.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oyola, Mayra; Marquis, Jared; Ruston, Benjamin; Campbell, James; Baker, Nancy; Westphal, Douglas; Zhang, Jianglong; Hyer, Edward

2017-04-01

Radiometric measurements from passive infrared (IR) sensors are important in numerical weather prediction (NWP) because they are sensitive to surface temperatures and atmospheric temperature profiles. However, these measurements are also sensitive to absorbing and scattering constituents in the atmosphere. Dust aerosols absorb in the IR and are found over many global regions with irregular spatial and temporal frequency. Retrievals of temperature using IR data are thus vulnerable to dust-IR radiance biases, most notably over tropical oceans where accurate surface and atmospheric temperatures are critical to accurate prediction of tropical cyclone development. Previous studies have shown that dust aerosols can bias retrieved brightness temperatures (BT) by up to 10K in some IR channels that are assimilated to constrain atmospheric temperature and water vapor profiles. Other BT-derived parameters such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are susceptible to negative biases of at least 1K or higher, which conflicts with the accuracy requirement for most research and operational applications (i.e., +/- 0.3 K). This problem is not limited to just satellite retrievals. BT bias also impacts the incorporation of background fields from NWP analyses in data assimilation (DA) systems. The effect of aerosols on IR fluxes at the ocean surface is a function of both aerosol loading and vertical profile. Therefore, knowledge of the aerosol vertical distribution, and understanding of how well this distribution is captured by NWP models, is necessary to ensuring proper treatment of aerosol-affected radiances in both retrieval and data assimilation. This understanding can be achieved by conducting modeling studies and by the exploitation of a robust observational dataset, such as satellite-based lidar profiling, which can be used to characterize aerosol type and distribution. In this talk, we describe such an application using the Navy Aerosol Analysis Prediction System (NAAPS) and Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS). We describe the impact of aerosol-biased radiances on operational DA, and thus the quantitative impact of dust on model profiles of temperature and water vapor mixing ratio before and after data assimilation, using collocated hyperspectral Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIs) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) observations over the Tropical Atlantic. We then describe how the NAVDAS radiance assimilation system responds when coupled with NAAPS dust concentration fields, and thus how the model representation of dust compares with observations.. The result is a conceptual description of how IR-absorbing dust impacts radiance DA for operational weather modeling, and a first-order description of how adept current aerosol transport models are for providing compulsory corrections.

Experimental and numerical investigations on the temperature distribution in PVD AlTiN coated and uncoated Al2O3/TiCN mixed ceramic cutting tools in hard turning of AISI 52100 steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sateesh Kumar, Ch; Patel, Saroj Kumar; Das, Anshuman

2018-03-01

Temperature generation in cutting tools is one of the major causes of tool failure especially during hard machining where machining forces are quite high resulting in elevated temperatures. Thus, the present work investigates the temperature generation during hard machining of AISI 52100 steel (62 HRC hardness) with uncoated and PVD AlTiN coated Al2O3/TiCN mixed ceramic cutting tools. The experiments were performed on a heavy duty lathe machine with both coated and uncoated cutting tools under dry cutting environment. The temperature of the cutting zone was measured using an infrared thermometer and a finite element model has been adopted to predict the temperature distribution in cutting tools during machining for comparative assessment with the measured temperature. The experimental and numerical results revealed a significant reduction of cutting zone temperature during machining with PVD AlTiN coated cutting tools when compared to uncoated cutting tools during each experimental run. The main reason for decrease in temperature for AlTiN coated tools is the lower coefficient of friction offered by the coating material which allows the free flow of the chips on the rake surface when compared with uncoated cutting tools. Further, the superior wear behaviour of AlTiN coating resulted in reduction of cutting temperature.

Biogeography of Human Infectious Diseases: A Global Historical Analysis

PubMed Central

Cashdan, Elizabeth

2014-01-01

Objectives Human pathogen richness and prevalence vary widely across the globe, yet we know little about whether global patterns found in other taxa also predict diversity in this important group of organisms. This study (a) assesses the relative importance of temperature, precipitation, habitat diversity, and population density on the global distributions of human pathogens and (b) evaluates the species-area predictions of island biogeography for human pathogen distributions on oceanic islands. Methods Historical data were used in order to minimize the influence of differential access to modern health care on pathogen prevalence. The database includes coded data (pathogen, environmental and cultural) for a worldwide sample of 186 non-industrial cultures, including 37 on islands. Prevalence levels for 10 pathogens were combined into a pathogen prevalence index, and OLS regression was used to model the environmental determinants of the prevalence index and number of pathogens. Results Pathogens (number and prevalence index) showed the expected latitudinal gradient, but predictors varied by latitude. Pathogens increased with temperature in high-latitude zones, while mean annual precipitation was a more important predictor in low-latitude zones. Other environmental factors associated with more pathogens included seasonal dry extremes, frost-free climates, and human population density outside the tropics. Islands showed the expected species-area relationship for all but the smallest islands, and the relationship was not mediated by habitat diversity. Although geographic distributions of free-living and parasitic taxa typically have different determinants, these data show that variables that influence the distribution of free-living organisms also shape the global distribution of human pathogens. Understanding the cause of these distributions is potentially important, since geographical variation in human pathogens has an important influence on global disparities in human welfare. PMID:25271730

Biogeography of human infectious diseases: a global historical analysis.

PubMed

Cashdan, Elizabeth

2014-01-01

Human pathogen richness and prevalence vary widely across the globe, yet we know little about whether global patterns found in other taxa also predict diversity in this important group of organisms. This study (a) assesses the relative importance of temperature, precipitation, habitat diversity, and population density on the global distributions of human pathogens and (b) evaluates the species-area predictions of island biogeography for human pathogen distributions on oceanic islands. Historical data were used in order to minimize the influence of differential access to modern health care on pathogen prevalence. The database includes coded data (pathogen, environmental and cultural) for a worldwide sample of 186 non-industrial cultures, including 37 on islands. Prevalence levels for 10 pathogens were combined into a pathogen prevalence index, and OLS regression was used to model the environmental determinants of the prevalence index and number of pathogens. Pathogens (number and prevalence index) showed the expected latitudinal gradient, but predictors varied by latitude. Pathogens increased with temperature in high-latitude zones, while mean annual precipitation was a more important predictor in low-latitude zones. Other environmental factors associated with more pathogens included seasonal dry extremes, frost-free climates, and human population density outside the tropics. Islands showed the expected species-area relationship for all but the smallest islands, and the relationship was not mediated by habitat diversity. Although geographic distributions of free-living and parasitic taxa typically have different determinants, these data show that variables that influence the distribution of free-living organisms also shape the global distribution of human pathogens. Understanding the cause of these distributions is potentially important, since geographical variation in human pathogens has an important influence on global disparities in human welfare.

[Prediction of the suitable distribution and responses to climate change of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Yin Bo; Gao, Chen Hong; Qin, Hao

2018-04-01

Understanding the responses of the habitats of endangered species to climate change is of great significance for biodiversity conservation and the maintenance of the integrity of ecosystem function. In this study, the potential suitable distribution habitats of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province was simulated by the maximum entropy model, based on 73 occurrence field records and 35 environmental factors under the current climate condition. Moreover, with the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the dynamics of distribution pattern was analyzed for E. mollis under different climate scenarios. The results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value was 0.987, indicating that the data fitted the model very well and that the prediction was highly reliable. Results from the Jackknife test showed that the main environmental variables affecting the E. mollis distribution were the precipitation seasonality, the range of annual temperature, annual mean temperature, isothermality, annual precipitation, and pH of topsoil, with the cumulative contribution reaching 94.8%. At present, the potential suitable habitats of E. mollis are mainly located in two regions, the southern of Lyuliang Mountain and Zhongtiao Mountain in Shanxi Province. Under different climate scenarios, the total suitable area of E. mollis would shrink in 2070s. In RCP 2.6 the suitable area would firstly increase and then decrease, while in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 it would response sensitively and first decrease and then increase. Its spatial distribution in two suitable regions would show divergent responses to climate change. The distribution in southern Lyuliang Mountain would fluctuate slightly in latitudinal direction, while that in Zhongtiao Mountain would migrate along elevation.

Hope for the Forests? Habitat Resiliency Illustrated in the Face of Climate Change Using Fine-Scale Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, E. R.

2010-12-01

In the face of rapid climate change, fine-scale predictions of landscape change are of extreme interest to land managers that endeavor to develop long term adaptive strategies for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. Global climate model (GCM) outputs, which generally focus on estimated increases in air temperature, are increasingly applied to species habitat distribution models. For sensitive species subject to climate change, habitat models predict significant migration (either northward or towards higher elevations), or complete extinction. Current studies typically rely on large spatial scale GCM projections (> 10 km) of changes in precipitation and air temperature: at this scale, these models necessarily neglect subtleties of topographic shading, geomorphic expression of the landscape, and fine-scale differences in soil properties - data that is readily available at meaningful local scales. Recent advances in modeling take advantage of available soils, geology, and topographic data to construct watershed-scale scenarios using GCM inputs and result in improved correlations of vegetation distribution with temperature. For this study, future climate projections were downscaled to 270-m and applied to a physically-based hydrologic model to calculate future changes in recharge, runoff, and climatic water deficit (CWD) for basins draining into the northern San Francisco Bay. CWD was analyzed for mapped vegetation types to evaluate the range of CWD for historic time periods in comparison to future time periods. For several forest communities (including blue oak woodlands, montane hardwoods, douglas-fir, and coast redwood) existing landscape area exhibiting suitable CWD diminishes by up 80 percent in the next century, with a trend towards increased CWD throughout the region. However, no forest community loses all suitable habitat, with islands of potential habitat primarily remaining on north facing slopes and deeper soils. Creation of new suitable habitat is also predicted throughout the region. Results have direct application to management issues of habitat connectivity, forest land protection and acquisition, and active management solutions such as transplanting or assisted migration. Although this analysis considers only one driver of forest habitat distribution, consideration of hydrologic derivatives at a fine scale explains current forest community distributions and provides a far more informed perspective on potential future forest distributions. Results demonstrate the utility of fine-scale modeling and provide landscape managers and conservation agencies valuable management tools in fine-scale future forest scenarios and a framework for evaluating forest resiliency in a changing climate.

Predicting the hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence using search engine query data and climate variables: an ecological study in Guangdong, China.

PubMed

Du, Zhicheng; Xu, Lin; Zhang, Wangjian; Zhang, Dingmei; Yu, Shicheng; Hao, Yuantao

2017-10-06

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has caused a substantial burden in China, especially in Guangdong Province. Based on the enhanced surveillance system, we aimed to explore whether the addition of temperate and search engine query data improves the risk prediction of HFMD. Ecological study. Information on the confirmed cases of HFMD, climate parameters and search engine query logs was collected. A total of 1.36 million HFMD cases were identified from the surveillance system during 2011-2014. Analyses were conducted at aggregate level and no confidential information was involved. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with external variables (ARIMAX) was used to predict the HFMD incidence from 2011 to 2014, taking into account temperature and search engine query data (Baidu Index, BDI). Statistics of goodness-of-fit and precision of prediction were used to compare models (1) based on surveillance data only, and with the addition of (2) temperature, (3) BDI, and (4) both temperature and BDI. A high correlation between HFMD incidence and BDI ( r =0.794, p<0.001) or temperature ( r =0.657, p<0.001) was observed using both time series plot and correlation matrix. A linear effect of BDI (without lag) and non-linear effect of temperature (1 week lag) on HFMD incidence were found in a distributed lag non-linear model. Compared with the model based on surveillance data only, the ARIMAX model including BDI reached the best goodness-of-fit with an Akaike information criterion (AIC) value of -345.332, whereas the model including both BDI and temperature had the most accurate prediction in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 101.745%. An ARIMAX model incorporating search engine query data significantly improved the prediction of HFMD. Further studies are warranted to examine whether including search engine query data also improves the prediction of other infectious diseases in other settings. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Predicting the hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence using search engine query data and climate variables: an ecological study in Guangdong, China

PubMed Central

Du, Zhicheng; Xu, Lin; Zhang, Wangjian; Zhang, Dingmei; Yu, Shicheng; Hao, Yuantao

2017-01-01

Objectives Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has caused a substantial burden in China, especially in Guangdong Province. Based on the enhanced surveillance system, we aimed to explore whether the addition of temperate and search engine query data improves the risk prediction of HFMD. Design Ecological study. Setting and participants Information on the confirmed cases of HFMD, climate parameters and search engine query logs was collected. A total of 1.36 million HFMD cases were identified from the surveillance system during 2011–2014. Analyses were conducted at aggregate level and no confidential information was involved. Outcome measures A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with external variables (ARIMAX) was used to predict the HFMD incidence from 2011 to 2014, taking into account temperature and search engine query data (Baidu Index, BDI). Statistics of goodness-of-fit and precision of prediction were used to compare models (1) based on surveillance data only, and with the addition of (2) temperature, (3) BDI, and (4) both temperature and BDI. Results A high correlation between HFMD incidence and BDI (r=0.794, p<0.001) or temperature (r=0.657, p<0.001) was observed using both time series plot and correlation matrix. A linear effect of BDI (without lag) and non-linear effect of temperature (1 week lag) on HFMD incidence were found in a distributed lag non-linear model. Compared with the model based on surveillance data only, the ARIMAX model including BDI reached the best goodness-of-fit with an Akaike information criterion (AIC) value of −345.332, whereas the model including both BDI and temperature had the most accurate prediction in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 101.745%. Conclusions An ARIMAX model incorporating search engine query data significantly improved the prediction of HFMD. Further studies are warranted to examine whether including search engine query data also improves the prediction of other infectious diseases in other settings. PMID:28988169

Optimum cooking conditions for shrimp and Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Brookmire, Lauren; Mallikarjunan, P; Jahncke, M; Grisso, R

2013-02-01

The quality and safety of a cooked food product depends on many variables, including the cooking method and time-temperature combinations employed. The overall heating profile of the food can be useful in predicting the quality changes and microbial inactivation occurring during cooking. Mathematical modeling can be used to attain the complex heating profile of a food product during cooking. Studies were performed to monitor the product heating profile during the baking and boiling of shrimp and the baking and pan-frying of salmon. Product color, texture, moisture content, mass loss, and pressed juice were evaluated during the cooking processes as the products reached the internal temperature recommended by the FDA. Studies were also performed on the inactivation of Salmonella cocktails in shrimp and salmon. To effectively predict inactivation during cooking, the Bigelow, Fermi distribution, and Weibull distribution models were applied to the Salmonella thermal inactivation data. Minimum cooking temperatures necessary to destroy Salmonella in shrimp and salmon were determined. The heating profiles of the 2 products were modeled using the finite difference method. Temperature data directly from the modeled heating profiles were then used in the kinetic modeling of quality change and Salmonella inactivation during cooking. The optimum cooking times for a 3-log reduction of Salmonella and maintaining 95% of quality attributes are 100, 233, 159, 378, 1132, and 399 s for boiling extra jumbo shrimp, baking extra jumbo shrimp, boiling colossal shrimp, baking colossal shrimp, baking Atlantic salmon, and pan frying Atlantic Salmon, respectively. © 2013 Institute of Food Technologists®

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lombardo, N.J.; Marseille, T.J.; White, M.D.

TRUMP-BD (Boil Down) is an extension of the TRUMP (Edwards 1972) computer program for the analysis of nuclear fuel assemblies under severe accident conditions. This extension allows prediction of the heat transfer rates, metal-water oxidation rates, fission product release rates, steam generation and consumption rates, and temperature distributions for nuclear fuel assemblies under core uncovery conditions. The heat transfer processes include conduction in solid structures, convection across fluid-solid boundaries, and radiation between interacting surfaces. Metal-water reaction kinetics are modeled with empirical relationships to predict the oxidation rates of steam-exposed Zircaloy and uranium metal. The metal-water oxidation models are parabolic inmore » form with an Arrhenius temperature dependence. Uranium oxidation begins when fuel cladding failure occurs; Zircaloy oxidation occurs continuously at temperatures above 13000{degree}F when metal and steam are available. From the metal-water reactions, the hydrogen generation rate, total hydrogen release, and temporal and spatial distribution of oxide formations are computed. Consumption of steam from the oxidation reactions and the effect of hydrogen on the coolant properties is modeled for independent coolant flow channels. Fission product release from exposed uranium metal Zircaloy-clad fuel is modeled using empirical time and temperature relationships that consider the release to be subject to oxidation and volitization/diffusion ( bake-out'') release mechanisms. Release of the volatile species of iodine (I), tellurium (Te), cesium (Ce), ruthenium (Ru), strontium (Sr), zirconium (Zr), cerium (Cr), and barium (Ba) from uranium metal fuel may be modeled.« less

Structure of Laminar Permanently Blue, Opposed-Jet Ethylene-Fueled Diffusion Flames

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, K.-C.; Faeth, G. M.; Urban, D. L. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The structure and state relationships of laminar soot-free (permanently blue) ethylene-fueled diffusion flames at various strain rates were studied both experimentally and computationally using an opposed-jet configuration. Measurements of gas velocities, temperatures, and compositions were carried out along the stagnation stream line. Corresponding predictions of flame structure were obtained, based on numerical simulations using several contemporary reaction mechanisms for methane oxidation. Flame conditions studied included ethylene-fueled opposed-jet diffusion flames having stoichiometric mixture fractions of 0.7 with measurements involving strain rates of 60-240/s and predictions involving strain rates of 0-1140/s at normal temperature and pressure. It was found that measured major gas species concentrations and temperature distributions were in reasonably good agreement with predictions using mechanisms due to GRI-Mech and Peters and that effects of preferential diffusion significantly influence flame structure even when reactant mass diffusivities are similar. Oxygen leakage to fuel-rich conditions and carbon monoxide leakage to fuel-lean conditions both increased as strain rates increased. Furthermore, increased strain rates caused increased fuel concentrations near the flame sheet, decreased peak gas temperatures, and decreased concentrations of carbon dioxide and water vapor throughout the flames. State relationships for major gas species and gas temperatures were found to exist over a broad range of strain rates, providing potential for significant computational simplifications for modeling purposes in some instances.

Structure of Laminar Permanently Blue, Opposed-Jet Ethylene-Fueled Diffusion Flames. Appendix E

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, K.-C.; Faeth, G. M.; Urban, D. L. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The structure and state relationships of laminar soot-free (permanently blue) ethylene-fueled diffusion flames at various strain rates were studied both experimentally and computationally using an opposed-jet configuration. Measurements of gas velocities, temperatures, and compositions were carried out along the stagnation stream line. Corresponding predictions of flame structure were obtained, based on numerical simulations using several contemporary reaction mechanisms for methane oxidation. Flame conditions studied included ethylene-fueled opposed-jet diffusion flames having stoichiometric mixture fractions of 0.7 with measurements involving strain rates of 60-240/s and predictions involving strain rates of 0-1140/s at normal temperature and pressure. It was found that measured major gas species concentrations and temperature distributions were in reasonably good agreement with predictions using mechanisms due to GRI-Mech and Peters and that effects of preferential diffusion significantly influence flame structure even when reactant mass diffusivities are similar. Oxygen leakage to fuel-rich conditions and carbon monoxide leakage to fuel-lean conditions both increased as strain rates increased. Furthermore, increased strain rates caused increased fuel concentrations near the flame sheet, decreased peak gas temperatures, and decreased concentrations of carbon dioxide and water vapor throughout the flames. State relationships for major gas species and gas temperatures were found to exist over a broad range of strain rates, providing potential for significant computational simplifications for modeling purposes in some instances.

Developing a methodology to predict PM10 concentrations in urban areas using generalized linear models.

PubMed

Garcia, J M; Teodoro, F; Cerdeira, R; Coelho, L M R; Kumar, Prashant; Carvalho, M G

2016-09-01

A methodology to predict PM10 concentrations in urban outdoor environments is developed based on the generalized linear models (GLMs). The methodology is based on the relationship developed between atmospheric concentrations of air pollutants (i.e. CO, NO2, NOx, VOCs, SO2) and meteorological variables (i.e. ambient temperature, relative humidity (RH) and wind speed) for a city (Barreiro) of Portugal. The model uses air pollution and meteorological data from the Portuguese monitoring air quality station networks. The developed GLM considers PM10 concentrations as a dependent variable, and both the gaseous pollutants and meteorological variables as explanatory independent variables. A logarithmic link function was considered with a Poisson probability distribution. Particular attention was given to cases with air temperatures both below and above 25°C. The best performance for modelled results against the measured data was achieved for the model with values of air temperature above 25°C compared with the model considering all ranges of air temperatures and with the model considering only temperature below 25°C. The model was also tested with similar data from another Portuguese city, Oporto, and results found to behave similarly. It is concluded that this model and the methodology could be adopted for other cities to predict PM10 concentrations when these data are not available by measurements from air quality monitoring stations or other acquisition means.

Thermal onset of cellular and endocrine stress responses correspond to ecological limits in brook trout, an iconic cold-water fish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chadwick, Joseph G; Nislow, Kieth H; McCormick, Stephen

2015-01-01

Climate change is predicted to change the distribution and abundance of species, yet underlying physiological mechanisms are complex and methods for detecting populations at risk from rising temperature are poorly developed. There is increasing interest in using physiological mediators of the stress response as indicators of individual and population-level response to environmental stressors. Here, we use laboratory experiments to show that the temperature thresholds in brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) for increased gill heat shock protein-70 (20.7°C) and plasma glucose (21.2°C) are similar to their proposed thermal ecological limit of 21.0°C. Field assays demonstrated increased plasma glucose, cortisol and heat shock protein-70 concentrations at field sites where mean daily temperature exceeded 21.0°C. Furthermore, population densities of brook trout were lowest at field sites where temperatures were warm enough to induce a stress response, and a co-occurring species with a higher thermal tolerance showed no evidence of physiological stress at a warm site. The congruence of stress responses and proposed thermal limits supports the use of these thresholds in models of changes in trout distribution under climate change scenarios and suggests that the induction of the stress response by elevated temperature may play a key role in driving the distribution of species.

Using remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems for Rift Valley fever risk assessment in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedrow, Christine Atkins

The primary goal in this study was to explore remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as aids in predicting candidate Rift Valley fever (RVF) competent vector abundance and distribution in Virginia, and as means of estimating where risk of establishment in mosquitoes and risk of transmission to human populations would be greatest in Virginia. A second goal in this study was to determine whether the remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can be used as a proxy variable of local conditions for the development of mosquitoes to predict mosquito species distribution and abundance in Virginia. As part of this study, a mosquito surveillance database was compiled to archive the historical patterns of mosquito species abundance in Virginia. In addition, linkages between mosquito density and local environmental and climatic patterns were spatially and temporally examined. The present study affirms the potential role of remote sensing imagery for species distribution prediction, and it demonstrates that ecological niche modeling is a valuable predictive tool to analyze the distributions of populations. The MaxEnt ecological niche modeling program was used to model predicted ranges for potential RVF competent vectors in Virginia. The MaxEnt model was shown to be robust, and the candidate RVF competent vector predicted distribution map is presented. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was found to be the most useful environmental-climatic variable to predict mosquito species distribution and abundance in Virginia. However, these results indicate that a more robust prediction is obtained by including other environmental-climatic factors correlated to mosquito densities (e.g., temperature, precipitation, elevation) with NDVI. The present study demonstrates that remote sensing and GIS can be used with ecological niche and risk modeling methods to estimate risk of virus establishment in mosquitoes and transmission to humans. Maps delineating the geographic areas in Virginia with highest risk for RVF establishment in mosquito populations and RVF disease transmission to human populations were generated in a GIS using human, domestic animal, and white-tailed deer population estimates and the MaxEnt potential RVF competent vector species distribution prediction. The candidate RVF competent vector predicted distribution and RVF risk maps presented in this study can help vector control agencies and public health officials focus Rift Valley fever surveillance efforts in geographic areas with large co-located populations of potential RVF competent vectors and human, domestic animal, and wildlife hosts. Keywords. Rift Valley fever, risk assessment, Ecological Niche Modeling, MaxEnt, Geographic Information System, remote sensing, Pearson's Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient, vectors, mosquito distribution, mosquito density, mosquito surveillance, United States, Virginia, domestic animals, white-tailed deer, ArcGIS

Global temperature constraints on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Dengue is a disease that has undergone significant expansion over the past hundred years. Understanding what factors limit the distribution of transmission can be used to predict current and future limits to further dengue expansion. While not the only factor, temperature plays an important role in defining these limits. Previous attempts to analyse the effect of temperature on the geographic distribution of dengue have not considered its dynamic intra-annual and diurnal change and its cumulative effects on mosquito and virus populations. Methods Here we expand an existing modelling framework with new temperature-based relationships to model an index proportional to the basic reproductive number of the dengue virus. This model framework is combined with high spatial and temporal resolution global temperature data to model the effects of temperature on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission. Results Our model predicted areas where temperature is not expected to permit transmission and/or Aedes persistence throughout the year. By reanalysing existing experimental data our analysis indicates that Ae. albopictus, often considered a minor vector of dengue, has comparable rates of virus dissemination to its primary vector, Ae. aegypti, and when the longer lifespan of Ae. albopictus is considered its competence for dengue virus transmission far exceeds that of Ae. aegypti. Conclusions These results can be used to analyse the effects of temperature and other contributing factors on the expansion of dengue or its Aedes vectors. Our finding that Ae. albopictus has a greater capacity for dengue transmission than Ae. aegypti is contrary to current explanations for the comparative rarity of dengue transmission in established Ae. albopictus populations. This suggests that the limited capacity of Ae. albopictus to transmit DENV is more dependent on its ecology than vector competence. The recommendations, which we explicitly outlined here, point to clear targets for entomological investigation. PMID:25052008

X-rays diagnostics of the hot electron energy distribution in the intense laser interaction with metal targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostenko, O. F.; Andreev, N. E.; Rosmej, O. N.

2018-03-01

A two-temperature hot electron energy distribution has been revealed by modeling of bremsstrahlung emission, measured by the radiation attenuation and half-shade methods, and Kα emission from a massive silver cylinder irradiated by a subpicosecond s-polarized laser pulse with a peak intensity of about 2 × 1019 W/cm2. To deduce parameters of the hot electron spectrum, we have developed semi-analytical models of generation and measurements of the x-rays. The models are based on analytical expressions and tabulated data on electron stopping power as well as cross-sections of generation and absorption of the x-rays. The Kα emission from thin silver foils deposited on low-Z substrates, both conducting and nonconducting, has been used to verify the developed models and obtained hot electron spectrum. The obtained temperatures of the colder and hotter electron components are in agreement with the values predicted by kinetic simulations of the cone-guided approach to fast ignition [Chrisman et al., Phys. Plasmas 15, 056309 (2008)]. The temperature of the low-energy component of the accelerated electron spectrum is well below the ponderomotive scaling and Beg's law. We have obtained relatively low conversion efficiency of laser energy into the energy of hot electrons propagating through the solid target of about 2%. It is demonstrated that the assumption about a single-temperature hot electron energy distribution with the slope temperature described by the ponderomotive scaling relationship, without detailed analysis of the hot electron spectrum, can lead to strong overestimation of the laser-to-electron energy-conversion efficiency, in particular, the conversion efficiency of laser energy into the high-temperature component of the hot electron distribution.

A new approach to predict soil temperature under vegetated surfaces.

PubMed

Dolschak, Klaus; Gartner, Karl; Berger, Torsten W

2015-12-01

In this article, the setup and the application of an empirical model, based on Newton's law of cooling, capable to predict daily mean soil temperature ( T soil ) under vegetated surfaces, is described. The only input variable, necessary to run the model, is a time series of daily mean air temperature. The simulator employs 9 empirical parameters, which were estimated by inverse modeling. The model, which primarily addresses forested sites, incorporates the effect of snow cover and soil freezing on soil temperature. The model was applied to several temperate forest sites, managing the split between Central Europe (Austria) and the United States (Harvard Forest, Massachusetts; Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire), aiming to cover a broad range of site characteristics. Investigated stands differ fundamentally in stand composition, elevation, exposition, annual mean temperature, precipitation regime, as well as in the duration of winter snow cover. At last, to explore the limits of the formulation, the simulator was applied to non-forest sites (Illinois), where soil temperature was recorded under short cut grass. The model was parameterized, specifically to site and measurement depth. After calibration of the model, an evaluation was performed, using ~50 % of the available data. In each case, the simulator was capable to deliver a feasible prediction of soil temperature in the validation time interval. To evaluate the practical suitability of the simulator, the minimum amount of soil temperature point measurements, necessary to yield expedient model performance was determined. In the investigated case 13-20 point observations, uniformly distributed within an 11-year timeframe, have been proven sufficient to yield sound model performance (root mean square error <0.9 °C, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency >0.97). This makes the model suitable for the application on sites, where the information on soil temperature is discontinuous or scarce.

Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osman, Marisol; Vera, C. S.

2017-10-01

This work presents an assessment of the predictability and skill of climate anomalies over South America. The study was made considering a multi-model ensemble of seasonal forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and regional circulation, from coupled global circulation models included in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. Predictability was evaluated through the estimation of the signal-to-total variance ratio while prediction skill was assessed computing anomaly correlation coefficients. Both indicators present over the continent higher values at the tropics than at the extratropics for both, surface air temperature and precipitation. Moreover, predictability and prediction skill for temperature are slightly higher in DJF than in JJA while for precipitation they exhibit similar levels in both seasons. The largest values of predictability and skill for both variables and seasons are found over northwestern South America while modest but still significant values for extratropical precipitation at southeastern South America and the extratropical Andes. The predictability levels in ENSO years of both variables are slightly higher, although with the same spatial distribution, than that obtained considering all years. Nevertheless, predictability at the tropics for both variables and seasons diminishes in both warm and cold ENSO years respect to that in all years. The latter can be attributed to changes in signal rather than in the noise. Predictability and prediction skill for low-level winds and upper-level zonal winds over South America was also assessed. Maximum levels of predictability for low-level winds were found were maximum mean values are observed, i.e. the regions associated with the equatorial trade winds, the midlatitudes westerlies and the South American Low-Level Jet. Predictability maxima for upper-level zonal winds locate where the subtropical jet peaks. Seasonal changes in wind predictability are observed that seem to be related to those associated with the signal, especially at the extratropics.

Large-scale modelling permafrost distribution in Ötztal, Pitztal and Kaunertal (Tyrol)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoinkes, S.; Sailer, R.; Lehning, M.; Steinkogler, W.

2012-04-01

Permafrost is an important element of the global cryosphere, which is seriously affected by climate change. Due to the fact that permafrost is a mostly invisible phenomenon, the area-wide distribution is not properly known. Point measurements are conducted to get information, whether permafrost is present at certain places or not. For an area wide distribution mapping, models have to be built and applied. Different kinds of permafrost distribution models already exist, which are based on different approaches and complexities. Differences in model approaches are mainly due to scaling issues, availability of input data and type of output parameters. In the presented work, we want to map and model the distribution of permafrost in the most elevated parts of the Ötztal, Pitztal and Kaunertal, which are situated in the Eastern European Alps and cover an area of approximately 750 km2. As air temperature is believed to be the best and simplest proxy for energy balance in mountainous regions, we took only the mean annual air temperature from the interpolated ÖKLIM dataset of the Central Institute of Meteorology and Geodynamics to calculate areas with possible presence of permafrost. In a second approach we took a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM) derived by air-borne laser scanning and calculated possible areas with permafrost based on elevation and aspect only which is an established approach among the permafrost community since years. These two simple approaches are compared with each other and in order to validate the model we will compare the outputs with point measurements such as temperature recorded at the snow-soil interface (BTS), continuous temperature data, rock glacier inventories, geophysical measurements. We show that the model based on the mean annual air temperature (≤ -2°C) only, would predict less permafrost in the northerly exposed slopes and in lower elevation than the model based on elevation and aspect. In the southern aspects, more permafrost areas are predicted, but the overall pattern of permafrost distribution is similar. Regarding the input parameters, their different spatial resolutions and the complex topography in high alpine terrain these differences in the results are evident. In a next step these two very simple approaches will be compared to a more complex hydro-meteorological three-dimensional simulation (ALPINE3D). First a one-dimensional model will be used to model permafrost presence at certain points and to calibrate the model parameters, further the model will be applied for the whole investigation area. The model output will be a map of probable permafrost distribution, where energy balance, topography, snow cover, (sub)surface material and land cover is playing a major role.

Climate change impact on seaweed meadow distribution in the North Atlantic rocky intertidal

PubMed Central

Jueterbock, Alexander; Tyberghein, Lennert; Verbruggen, Heroen; Coyer, James A; Olsen, Jeanine L; Hoarau, Galice

2013-01-01

The North-Atlantic has warmed faster than all other ocean basins and climate change scenarios predict sea surface temperature isotherms to shift up to 600 km northwards by the end of the 21st century. The pole-ward shift has already begun for many temperate seaweed species that are important intertidal foundation species. We asked the question: Where will climate change have the greatest impact on three foundational, macroalgal species that occur along North-Atlantic shores: Fucus serratus, Fucus vesiculosus, and Ascophyllum nodosum? To predict distributional changes of these key species under three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) over the coming two centuries, we generated Ecological Niche Models with the program MAXENT. Model predictions suggest that these three species will shift northwards as an assemblage or “unit” and that phytogeographic changes will be most pronounced in the southern Arctic and the southern temperate provinces. Our models predict that Arctic shores in Canada, Greenland, and Spitsbergen will become suitable for all three species by 2100. Shores south of 45° North will become unsuitable for at least two of the three focal species on both the Northwest- and Northeast-Atlantic coasts by 2200. If these foundational species are unable to adapt to the rising temperatures, they will lose their centers of genetic diversity and their loss will trigger an unpredictable shift in the North-Atlantic intertidal ecosystem. PMID:23762521

Key seabird areas in southern New England identified using a community occupancy model

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connell, Allan F.; Flanders, Nicholas P.; Gardner, Beth; Winiarski, Kristopher J.; Paton, Peter W. C.; Allison, Taber

2015-01-01

Seabirds are of conservation concern, and as new potential risks to seabirds are arising, the need to provide unbiased estimates of species’ distributions is growing. We applied community occupancy models to detection/non-detection data collected from repeated aerial strip-transect surveys conducted in 2 large study plots off southern New England, USA; one off the coast of Rhode Island and the other in Nantucket Sound. A total of 17 seabird species were observed at least once in each study plot. We found that detection varied by survey date and effort for most species and the average detection probability across species was less than 0.4. We estimated the influence of water depth, sea surface temperature, and sea surface chl a concentration on species-specific occupancy. Diving species showed large differences between the 2 study plots in their predicted winter distributions, which were largely explained by water depth acting as a stronger predictor of occupancy in Rhode Island than in Nantucket Sound. Conversely, similarities between the 2 study plots in predicted winter distributions of surface-feeding species were explained by sea surface temperature or chlorophyll a concentration acting as predictors of these species’ occupancy in both study plots. We predicted the number of species at each site using the observed data in order to detect ‘hot-spots’ of seabird diversity and use in the 2 study plots. These results provide new information on detection of species, areas of use, and relationships with environmental variables that will be valuable for biologists and planners interested in seabird conservation in the region.

Modeling the influence of a reduced equator-to-pole sea surface temperature gradient on the distribution of water isotopes in the Early/Middle Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Speelman, Eveline N.; Sewall, Jacob O.; Noone, David; Huber, Matthew; von der Heydt, Anna; Damsté, Jaap Sinninghe; Reichart, Gert-Jan

2010-09-01

Proxy-based climate reconstructions suggest the existence of a strongly reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient during the Azolla interval in the Early/Middle Eocene, compared to modern. Changes in the hydrological cycle, as a consequence of a reduced temperature gradient, are expected to be reflected in the isotopic composition of precipitation (δD, δ 18O). The interpretation of water isotopic records to quantitatively reconstruct past precipitation patterns is, however, hampered by a lack of detailed information on changes in their spatial and temporal distribution. Using the isotope-enabled version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) atmospheric general circulation model, Community Atmosphere Model v.3 (isoCAM3), relationships between water isotopes and past climates can be simulated. Here we examine the influence of an imposed reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradient on the spatial distribution of precipitation and its isotopic composition in an Early/Middle Eocene setting. As a result of the applied forcings, the Eocene simulation predicts the occurrence of less depleted high latitude precipitation, with δD values ranging only between 0 and -140‰ (compared to Present-day 0 to -300‰). Comparison with Early/Middle Eocene-age isotopic proxy data shows that the simulation accurately captures the main features of the spatial distribution of the isotopic composition of Early/Middle Eocene precipitation over land in conjunction with the aspects of the modeled Early/Middle Eocene climate. Hence, the included stable isotope module quantitatively supports the existence of a reduced meridional temperature gradient during this interval.

Impact of Satellite Remote Sensing Data on Simulations of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We estimated surface salinity flux and solar penetration from satellite data, and performed model simulations to examine the impact of including the satellite estimates on temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen distributions on the Louisiana continental shelf (LCS) near the annual hypoxic zone. Rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) were used for the salinity flux, and the diffuse attenuation coefficient (Kd) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used for solar penetration. Improvements in the model results in comparison with in situ observations occurred when the two types of satellite data were included. Without inclusion of the satellite-derived surface salinity flux, realistic monthly variability in the model salinity fields was observed, but important inter-annual variability wasmissed. Without inclusion of the satellite-derived light attenuation, model bottom water temperatures were too high nearshore due to excessive penetration of solar irradiance. In general, these salinity and temperature errors led to model stratification that was too weak, and the model failed to capture observed spatial and temporal variability in water-column vertical stratification. Inclusion of the satellite data improved temperature and salinity predictions and the vertical stratification was strengthened, which improved prediction of bottom-water dissolved oxygen. The model-predicted area of bottom-water hypoxia on the

Synergistic Effects of Temperature, Oxidation and Multicracking Modes on Damage Evolution and Life Prediction of 2D Woven Ceramic-Matrix Composites under Tension-Tension Fatigue Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longbiao, Li

2017-08-01

In this paper, the synergistic effects of temperature, oxidation and multicracking modes on damage evolution and life prediction in 2D woven ceramic-matrix composites (CMCs) have been investigated. The damage parameter of fatigue hysteresis dissipated energy and the interface shear stress were used to monitor the damage evolution inside of CMCs. Under cyclic fatigue loading, the fibers broken fraction was determined by combining the interface/fiber oxidation model, interface wear model and fibers statistical failure model at elevated temperature, based on the assumption that the fiber strength is subjected to two-parameter Weibull distribution and the load carried by broken and intact fibers satisfy the Global Load Sharing (GLS) criterion. When the broken fibers fraction approaches to the critical value, the composite fatigue fractures. The evolution of fatigue hysteresis dissipated energy, the interface shear stress and broken fibers fraction versus cycle number, and the fatigue life S-N curves of SiC/SiC at 1000, 1200 and 1300 °C in air and steam condition have been predicted. The synergistic effects of temperature, oxidation, fatigue peak stress, and multicracking modes on the evolution of interface shear stress and fatigue hysteresis dissipated energy versus cycle numbers curves have been analyzed.

Prediction of operating parameters range for ammonia removal unit in coke making by-products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Hari Prakash; Kumar, Rajesh; Bhattacharjee, Arunabh; Lingam, Ravi Kumar; Roy, Abhijit; Tiwary, Shambhu

2018-02-01

Coke oven gas treatment plants are well equipped with distributed control systems (DCS) and therefore recording the vast amount of operational data efficiently. Analyzing the stored information manually from historians is practically impossible. In this study, data mining technique was examined for lowering the ammonia concentration in clean coke oven gas. Results confirm that concentration of ammonia in clean coke oven gas depends on the average PCDC temperature; gas scrubber temperatures stripped liquor flow, stripped liquor concentration and stripped liquor temperature. The optimum operating ranges of the above dependent parameters using data mining technique for lowering the concentration of ammonia is described in this paper.

Modeling a simple coronal streamer during whole sun month

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gibson, S. E.; Bagenal, F.; Biesecker, D.; Guhathakurta, M.; Hoeksema, J. T.; Thompson, B. J.

1997-01-01

The solar minimum streamer structure observed during the whole sun month was modeled. The Van de Hulst inversion was used in order to determine the coronal electron density profiles and scale-height temperature profiles. The axisymmetric magnetostatic model of Gibson, Bagenal and Low was also used. The density, temperature, and magnetic field distribution were quantified using both coronal white light data and photospheric magnetic field data from the Wilcox Solar Observatory. The densities and temperatures obtained by the Van de Hulst and magnetostatic models are compared to the magnetic field predicted by the magnetostatic model to a potential field extrapolated from the photosphere.

Active Motion of a Janus Particle by Self-Thermophoresis in a Defocused Laser Beam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Hong-Ren; Yoshinaga, Natsuhiko; Sano, Masaki

2010-12-01

We study self-propulsion of a half-metal coated colloidal particle under laser irradiation. The motion is caused by self-thermophoresis: i.e., absorption of a laser at the metal-coated side of the particle creates local temperature gradient which in turn drives the particle by thermophoresis. To clarify the mechanism, temperature distribution and a thermal slip flow field around a microscale Janus particle are measured for the first time. With measured temperature drop across the particle, the speed of self-propulsion is corroborated with the prediction based on accessible parameters. As an application for driving a micromachine, a microrotor is demonstrated.

Why "suboptimal" is optimal: Jensen's inequality and ectotherm thermal preferences.

PubMed

Martin, Tara Laine; Huey, Raymond B

2008-03-01

Body temperature (T(b)) profoundly affects the fitness of ectotherms. Many ectotherms use behavior to control T(b) within narrow levels. These temperatures are assumed to be optimal and therefore to match body temperatures (Trmax) that maximize fitness (r). We develop an optimality model and find that optimal body temperature (T(o)) should not be centered at Trmax but shifted to a lower temperature. This finding seems paradoxical but results from two considerations relating to Jensen's inequality, which deals with how variance and skew influence integrals of nonlinear functions. First, ectotherms are not perfect thermoregulators and so experience a range of T(b). Second, temperature-fitness curves are asymmetric, such that a T(b) higher than Trmax depresses fitness more than will a T(b) displaced an equivalent amount below Trmax. Our model makes several predictions. The magnitude of the optimal shift (Trmax - To) should increase with the degree of asymmetry of temperature-fitness curves and with T(b) variance. Deviations should be relatively large for thermal specialists but insensitive to whether fitness increases with Trmax ("hotter is better"). Asymmetric (left-skewed) T(b) distributions reduce the magnitude of the optimal shift but do not eliminate it. Comparative data (insects, lizards) support key predictions. Thus, "suboptimal" is optimal.

Inconsistent Range Shifts within Species Highlight Idiosyncratic Responses to Climate Warming

PubMed Central

Gibson-Reinemer, Daniel K.; Rahel, Frank J.

2015-01-01

Climate in part determines species’ distributions, and species’ distributions are shifting in response to climate change. Strong correlations between the magnitude of temperature changes and the extent of range shifts point to warming temperatures as the single most influential factor causing shifts in species’ distributions species. However, other abiotic and biotic factors may alter or even reverse these patterns. The importance of temperature relative to these other factors can be evaluated by examining range shifts of the same species in different geographic areas. When the same species experience warming in different geographic areas, the extent to which they show range shifts that are similar in direction and magnitude is a measure of temperature’s importance. We analyzed published studies to identify species that have documented range shifts in separate areas. For 273 species of plants, birds, mammals, and marine invertebrates with range shifts measured in multiple geographic areas, 42-50% show inconsistency in the direction of their range shifts, despite experiencing similar warming trends. Inconsistency of within-species range shifts highlights how biotic interactions and local, non-thermal abiotic conditions may often supersede the direct physiological effects of temperature. Assemblages show consistent responses to climate change, but this predictability does not appear to extend to species considered individually. PMID:26162013

Geo-environmental model for the prediction of potential transmission risk of Dirofilaria in an area with dry climate and extensive irrigated crops. The case of Spain.

PubMed

Simón, Luis; Afonin, Alexandr; López-Díez, Lucía Isabel; González-Miguel, Javier; Morchón, Rodrigo; Carretón, Elena; Montoya-Alonso, José Alberto; Kartashev, Vladimir; Simón, Fernando

2014-03-01

Zoonotic filarioses caused by Dirofilaria immitis and Dirofilaria repens are transmitted by culicid mosquitoes. Therefore Dirofilaria transmission depends on climatic factors like temperature and humidity. In spite of the dry climate of most of the Spanish territory, there are extensive irrigated crops areas providing moist habitats favourable for mosquito breeding. A GIS model to predict the risk of Dirofilaria transmission in Spain, based on temperatures and rainfall data as well as in the distribution of irrigated crops areas, is constructed. The model predicts that potential risk of Dirofilaria transmission exists in all the Spanish territory. Highest transmission risk exists in several areas of Andalucía, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia, Valencia, Aragón and Cataluña, where moderate/high temperatures coincide with extensive irrigated crops. High risk in Balearic Islands and in some points of Canary Islands, is also predicted. The lowest risk is predicted in Northern cold and scarcely or non-irrigated dry Southeastern areas. The existence of irrigations locally increases transmission risk in low rainfall areas of the Spanish territory. The model can contribute to implement rational preventive therapy guidelines in accordance with the transmission characteristics of each local area. Moreover, the use of humidity-related factors could be of interest in future predictions to be performed in countries with similar environmental characteristics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.