A Comparison of Center/TRACON Automation System and Airline Time of Arrival Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heere, Karen R.; Zelenka, Richard E.

2000-01-01

Benefits from information sharing between an air traffic service provider and a major air carrier are evaluated. Aircraft arrival time schedules generated by the NASA/FAA Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS) were provided to the American Airlines System Operations Control Center in Fort Worth, Texas, during a field trial of a specialized CTAS display. A statistical analysis indicates that the CTAS schedules, based on aircraft trajectories predicted from real-time radar and weather data, are substantially more accurate than the traditional airline arrival time estimates, constructed from flight plans and en route crew updates. The improvement offered by CTAS is especially advantageous during periods of heavy traffic and substantial terminal area delay, allowing the airline to avoid large predictive errors with serious impact on the efficiency and profitability of flight operations.

An Arrival and Departure Time Predictor for Scheduling Communication in Opportunistic IoT

PubMed Central

Pozza, Riccardo; Georgoulas, Stylianos; Moessner, Klaus; Nati, Michele; Gluhak, Alexander; Krco, Srdjan

2016-01-01

In this article, an Arrival and Departure Time Predictor (ADTP) for scheduling communication in opportunistic Internet of Things (IoT) is presented. The proposed algorithm learns about temporal patterns of encounters between IoT devices and predicts future arrival and departure times, therefore future contact durations. By relying on such predictions, a neighbour discovery scheduler is proposed, capable of jointly optimizing discovery latency and power consumption in order to maximize communication time when contacts are expected with high probability and, at the same time, saving power when contacts are expected with low probability. A comprehensive performance evaluation with different sets of synthetic and real world traces shows that ADTP performs favourably with respect to previous state of the art. This prediction framework opens opportunities for transmission planners and schedulers optimizing not only neighbour discovery, but the entire communication process. PMID:27827909

An Arrival and Departure Time Predictor for Scheduling Communication in Opportunistic IoT.

PubMed

Pozza, Riccardo; Georgoulas, Stylianos; Moessner, Klaus; Nati, Michele; Gluhak, Alexander; Krco, Srdjan

2016-11-04

In this article, an Arrival and Departure Time Predictor (ADTP) for scheduling communication in opportunistic Internet of Things (IoT) is presented. The proposed algorithm learns about temporal patterns of encounters between IoT devices and predicts future arrival and departure times, therefore future contact durations. By relying on such predictions, a neighbour discovery scheduler is proposed, capable of jointly optimizing discovery latency and power consumption in order to maximize communication time when contacts are expected with high probability and, at the same time, saving power when contacts are expected with low probability. A comprehensive performance evaluation with different sets of synthetic and real world traces shows that ADTP performs favourably with respect to previous state of the art. This prediction framework opens opportunities for transmission planners and schedulers optimizing not only neighbour discovery, but the entire communication process.

Timing of initial arrival at the breeding site predicts age at first reproduction in a long-lived migratory bird

PubMed Central

Becker, Peter H.; Dittmann, Tobias; Ludwigs, Jan-Dieter; Limmer, Bente; Ludwig, Sonja C.; Bauch, Christina; Braasch, Alexander; Wendeln, Helmut

2008-01-01

In long-lived vertebrates, individuals generally visit potential breeding areas or populations during one or more seasons before reproducing for the first time. During these years of prospecting, they select a future breeding site, colony, or mate and improve various skills and their physical condition to meet the requirements of reproduction. One precondition of successful reproduction is arrival in time on the breeding grounds. Here, we study the intricate links among the date of initial spring arrival, body mass, sex, and the age of first breeding in the common tern Sterna hirundo, a long-lived migratory colonial seabird. The study is based on a unique, individual-based, long-term dataset of sexed birds, marked with transponders, which allow recording their individual arrival, overall attendance, and clutch initiation remotely and automatically year by year over the entire lifetime at the natal colony site. We show that the seasonal date of initial arrival at the breeding grounds predicts the individual age at first reproduction, which mostly occurs years later. Late first-time arrivals remain delayed birds throughout subsequent years. Our findings reveal that timing of arrival at the site of reproduction and timing of reproduction itself are coherent parameters of individual quality, which are linked with the prospects of the breeding career and may have consequences for fitness. PMID:18711134

An experimental study on real time bus arrival time prediction with GPS data

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

Bus headway in a rural area is usually much larger than that in an urban area. Providing real-time bus : arrival information could make the public transit system more user-friendly and thus enhance its : competitiveness among various transportation m...

An experimental study on real time bus arrival time prediction with GPS data

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-01-01

Bus headway in a rural area usually is much larger than that in an urban area. Providing real-time bus arrival information could make the public transit system more user-friendly and thus enhance its competitiveness among various transportation modes...

A Final Approach Trajectory Model for Current Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gong, Chester; Sadovsky, Alexander

2010-01-01

Predicting accurate trajectories with limited intent information is a challenge faced by air traffic management decision support tools in operation today. One such tool is the FAA's Terminal Proximity Alert system which is intended to assist controllers in maintaining safe separation of arrival aircraft during final approach. In an effort to improve the performance of such tools, two final approach trajectory models are proposed; one based on polynomial interpolation, the other on the Fourier transform. These models were tested against actual traffic data and used to study effects of the key final approach trajectory modeling parameters of wind, aircraft type, and weight class, on trajectory prediction accuracy. Using only the limited intent data available to today's ATM system, both the polynomial interpolation and Fourier transform models showed improved trajectory prediction accuracy over a baseline dead reckoning model. Analysis of actual arrival traffic showed that this improved trajectory prediction accuracy leads to improved inter-arrival separation prediction accuracy for longer look ahead times. The difference in mean inter-arrival separation prediction error between the Fourier transform and dead reckoning models was 0.2 nmi for a look ahead time of 120 sec, a 33 percent improvement, with a corresponding 32 percent improvement in standard deviation.

Numerical simulation of a 100-ton ANFO detonation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, P. W.; Millage, K. K.; Crepeau, J. E.; Happ, H. J.; Gitterman, Y.; Needham, C. E.

2015-03-01

This work describes the results from a US government-owned hydrocode (SHAMRC, Second-Order Hydrodynamic Automatic Mesh Refinement Code) that simulated an explosive detonation experiment with 100,000 kg of Ammonium Nitrate-Fuel Oil (ANFO) and 2,080 kg of Composition B (CompB). The explosive surface charge was nearly hemispherical and detonated in desert terrain. Two-dimensional axisymmetric (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) simulations were conducted, with the 3D model providing a more accurate representation of the experimental setup geometry. Both 2D and 3D simulations yielded overpressure and impulse waveforms that agreed qualitatively with experiment, including the capture of the secondary shock observed in the experiment. The 2D simulation predicted the primary shock arrival time correctly but secondary shock arrival time was early. The 2D-predicted impulse waveforms agreed very well with the experiment, especially at later calculation times, and prediction of the early part of the impulse waveform (associated with the initial peak) was better quantitatively for 2D compared to 3D. The 3D simulation also predicted the primary shock arrival time correctly, and secondary shock arrival times in 3D were closer to the experiment than in the 2D results. The 3D-predicted impulse waveform had better quantitative agreement than 2D for the later part of the impulse waveform. The results of this numerical study show that SHAMRC may be used reliably to predict phenomena associated with the 100-ton detonation. The ultimate fidelity of the simulations was limited by both computer time and memory. The results obtained provide good accuracy and indicate that the code is well suited to predicting the outcomes of explosive detonations.

Controller Strategies for Automation Tool Use under Varying Levels of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morey, Susan; Prevot, Thomas; Mercer, Joey; Martin, Lynne; Bienert, Nancy; Cabrall, Christopher; Hunt, Sarah; Homola, Jeffrey; Kraut, Joshua

2013-01-01

A human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted to examine the effects of varying levels of trajectory prediction uncertainty on air traffic controller workload and performance, as well as how strategies and the use of decision support tools change in response. This paper focuses on the strategies employed by two controllers from separate teams who worked in parallel but independently under identical conditions (airspace, arrival traffic, tools) with the goal of ensuring schedule conformance and safe separation for a dense arrival flow in en route airspace. Despite differences in strategy and methods, both controllers achieved high levels of schedule conformance and safe separation. Overall, results show that trajectory uncertainties introduced by wind and aircraft performance prediction errors do not affect the controllers' ability to manage traffic. Controller strategies were fairly robust to changes in error, though strategies were affected by the amount of delay to absorb (scheduled time of arrival minus estimated time of arrival). Using the results and observations, this paper proposes an ability to dynamically customize the display of information including delay time based on observed error to better accommodate different strategies and objectives.

CME Arrival-time Validation of Real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone Simulations at the CCMC/SWRC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wold, A. M.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Jian, L.; Odstrcil, D.; MacNeice, P. J.

2016-12-01

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations worldwide to model CME propagation, as such it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC/Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). The SWRC is a CCMC sub-team that provides space weather services to NASA robotic mission operators and science campaigns, and also prototypes new forecasting models and techniques. CCMC/SWRC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME shock observations near Earth (ACE, Wind), STEREO-A and B for simulations completed between March 2010 - July 2016 (over 1500 runs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three spacecraft. For hits we compute the bias, RMSE, and average absolute CME arrival time error, and the dependence of these errors on CME input parameters. We compare the predicted geomagnetic storm strength (Kp index) to the CME arrival time error for Earth-directed CMEs. The predicted Kp index is computed using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone plasma parameters at Earth with a modified Newell et al. (2007) coupling function. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations on the CME parameters used initialize the model by comparing model validation results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A side-lobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). This model validation exercise has significance for future space weather mission planning such as L5 missions.

Comparison of CME/Shock Propagation Models with Heliospheric Imaging and In Situ Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Xinhua; Liu, Ying D.; Inhester, Bernd; Feng, Xueshang; Wiegelmann, Thomas; Lu, Lei

2016-10-01

The prediction of the arrival time for fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their associated shocks is highly desirable in space weather studies. In this paper, we use two shock propagation models, I.e., Data Guided Shock Time Of Arrival (DGSTOA) and Data Guided Shock Propagation Model (DGSPM), to predict the kinematical evolution of interplanetary shocks associated with fast CMEs. DGSTOA is based on the similarity theory of shock waves in the solar wind reference frame, and DGSPM is based on the non-similarity theory in the stationary reference frame. The inputs are the kinematics of the CME front at the maximum speed moment obtained from the geometric triangulation method applied to STEREO imaging observations together with the Harmonic Mean approximation. The outputs provide the subsequent propagation of the associated shock. We apply these models to the CMEs on 2012 January 19, January 23, and March 7. We find that the shock models predict reasonably well the shock’s propagation after the impulsive acceleration. The shock’s arrival time and local propagation speed at Earth predicted by these models are consistent with in situ measurements of WIND. We also employ the Drag-Based Model (DBM) as a comparison, and find that it predicts a steeper deceleration than the shock models after the rapid deceleration phase. The predictions of DBM at 1 au agree with the following ICME or sheath structure, not the preceding shock. These results demonstrate the applicability of the shock models used here for future arrival time prediction of interplanetary shocks associated with fast CMEs.

Real-time Upstream Monitoring System (RUMS): Forecasting arrival times of interplanetary shocks using energetic particle data from ACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, G.; Donegan, M.; Vandegriff, J.; Wagstaff, K.

We have created a system for predicting the arrival times at Earth of interplanetary (IP) shocks that originate at the Sun. This system is currently available on the web (http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RISP/index.html) and runs in real-time. Input data to our prediction algorithm is energetic particle data from the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument on NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Real-time EPAM data is obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Environment Center (SEC). Our algorithm operates in two stages. First it watches for a velocity dispersion signature (energetic ions show flux enhancement followed by subsequent enhancements in lower energies), which is commonly seen upstream of a large IP shock. Once a precursor signature has been detected, a pattern recognition algorithm is used to analyze the time series profile of the particle data and generate an estimate for the shock arrival time. Tests on the algorithm show an average error of roughly 9 hours for predictions made 24 hours before the shock arrival and roughly 5 hours when the shock is 12 hours away. This can provide significant lead-time and deliver critical information to mission planners, satellite operations controllers, and scientists. As of February 4, 2004, the ACE real-time stream has been switched to include data from another detector on EPAM. We are now processing the new real-time data stream and have made improvements to our algorithm based on this data. In this paper, we report prediction results from the updated algorithm.

Ensemble Modeling of the July 23, 2012 CME Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cash, M. D.; Biesecker, D. A.; Millward, G.; Arge, C. N.; Henney, C. J.

2013-12-01

On July 23, 2012 a large and very fast coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed by STEREO A. This CME was unusual in that the estimates of the speed of the CME ranged from 2125 km/s to 2780 km/s based on dividing the distance of STEREO A from the Sun by the transit time of the CME. Modeling of this CME event with the WSA-Enlil model has also suggested that a very fast speed is required in order to obtain the correct arrival time at 1 AU. We present a systematic study of parameter space for the July 23, 2012 CME event through an ensemble study using the WSA-Enlil model to predict the arrival time of the CME at STEREO A. We investigate how variations in the initial speed, angular width, and direction affect the predicted arrival time. We also explore how variations in the background solar wind influence CME arrival time by using varying ADAPT maps within our ensemble study. Factors involved in the fast transit time of this large CME are discussed and the optimal CME parameters are presented.

ElEvoHI: A Novel CME Prediction Tool for Heliospheric Imaging Combining an Elliptical Front with Drag-based Model Fitting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rollett, T.; Möstl, C.; Isavnin, A.; Davies, J. A.; Kubicka, M.; Amerstorfer, U. V.; Harrison, R. A.

2016-06-01

In this study, we present a new method for forecasting arrival times and speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at any location in the inner heliosphere. This new approach enables the adoption of a highly flexible geometrical shape for the CME front with an adjustable CME angular width and an adjustable radius of curvature of its leading edge, I.e., the assumed geometry is elliptical. Using, as input, Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imager (HI) observations, a new elliptic conversion (ElCon) method is introduced and combined with the use of drag-based model (DBM) fitting to quantify the deceleration or acceleration experienced by CMEs during propagation. The result is then used as input for the Ellipse Evolution Model (ElEvo). Together, ElCon, DBM fitting, and ElEvo form the novel ElEvoHI forecasting utility. To demonstrate the applicability of ElEvoHI, we forecast the arrival times and speeds of 21 CMEs remotely observed from STEREO/HI and compare them to in situ arrival times and speeds at 1 AU. Compared to the commonly used STEREO/HI fitting techniques (Fixed-ϕ, Harmonic Mean, and Self-similar Expansion fitting), ElEvoHI improves the arrival time forecast by about 2 to ±6.5 hr and the arrival speed forecast by ≈ 250 to ±53 km s-1, depending on the ellipse aspect ratio assumed. In particular, the remarkable improvement of the arrival speed prediction is potentially beneficial for predicting geomagnetic storm strength at Earth.

Descent advisor preliminary field test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Steven M.; Vivona, Robert A.; Sanford, Beverly

1995-01-01

A field test of the Descent Advisor (DA) automation tool was conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center in September 1994. DA is being developed to assist Center controllers in the efficient management and control of arrival traffic. DA generates advisories, based on trajectory predictions, to achieve accurate meter-fix arrival times in a fuel efficient manner while assisting the controller with the prediction and resolution of potential conflicts. The test objectives were to evaluate the accuracy of DA trajectory predictions for conventional- and flight-management-system-equipped jet transports, to identify significant sources of trajectory prediction error, and to investigate procedural and training issues (both air and ground) associated with DA operations. Various commercial aircraft (97 flights total) and a Boeing 737-100 research aircraft participated in the test. Preliminary results from the primary test set of 24 commercial flights indicate a mean DA arrival time prediction error of 2.4 sec late with a standard deviation of 13.1 sec. This paper describes the field test and presents preliminary results for the commercial flights.

Sex-Specific Arrival Times on the Breeding Grounds: Hybridizing Migratory Skuas Provide Empirical Support for the Role of Sex Ratios.

PubMed

Lisovski, Simeon; Fröhlich, Anne; von Tersch, Matthew; Klaassen, Marcel; Peter, Hans-Ulrich; Ritz, Markus S

2016-04-01

In migratory animals, protandry (earlier arrival of males on the breeding grounds) prevails over protogyny (females preceding males). In theory, sex differences in timing of arrival should be driven by the operational sex ratio, shifting toward protogyny in female-biased populations. However, empirical support for this hypothesis is, to date, lacking. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed arrival data from three populations of the long-distance migratory south polar skua (Catharacta maccormicki). These populations differed in their operational sex ratio caused by the unidirectional hybridization of male south polar skuas with female brown skuas (Catharacta antarctica lonnbergi). We found that arrival times were protandrous in allopatry, shifting toward protogyny in female-biased populations when breeding in sympatry. This unique observation is consistent with theoretical predictions that sex-specific arrival times should be influenced by sex ratio and that protogyny should be observed in populations with female-biased operational sex ratio.

Considerations of the Use of 3-D Geophysical Models to Predict Test Ban Monitoring Observables

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

predict first P arrival times. Since this is a 3-D model, the travel times are predicted with a 3-D finite-difference code solving the eikonal equations...for the eikonal wave equation should provide more accurate predictions of travel-time from 3D models. These techniques and others are being

Departure Queue Prediction for Strategic and Tactical Surface Scheduler Integration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zelinski, Shannon; Windhorst, Robert

2016-01-01

A departure metering concept to be demonstrated at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) will integrate strategic and tactical surface scheduling components to enable the respective collaborative decision making and improved efficiency benefits these two methods of scheduling provide. This study analyzes the effect of tactical scheduling on strategic scheduler predictability. Strategic queue predictions and target gate pushback times to achieve a desired queue length are compared between fast time simulations of CLT surface operations with and without tactical scheduling. The use of variable departure rates as a strategic scheduler input was shown to substantially improve queue predictions over static departure rates. With target queue length calibration, the strategic scheduler can be tuned to produce average delays within one minute of the tactical scheduler. However, root mean square differences between strategic and tactical delays were between 12 and 15 minutes due to the different methods the strategic and tactical schedulers use to predict takeoff times and generate gate pushback clearances. This demonstrates how difficult it is for the strategic scheduler to predict tactical scheduler assigned gate delays on an individual flight basis as the tactical scheduler adjusts departure sequence to accommodate arrival interactions. Strategic/tactical scheduler compatibility may be improved by providing more arrival information to the strategic scheduler and stabilizing tactical scheduler changes to runway sequence in response to arrivals.

Effective Acceleration Model for the Arrival Time of Interplanetary Shocks driven by Coronal Mass Ejections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paouris, Evangelos; Mavromichalaki, Helen

2017-12-01

In a previous work (Paouris and Mavromichalaki in Solar Phys. 292, 30, 2017), we presented a total of 266 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) with as much information as possible. We developed a new empirical model for estimating the acceleration of these events in the interplanetary medium from this analysis. In this work, we present a new approach on the effective acceleration model (EAM) for predicting the arrival time of the shock that preceds a CME, using data of a total of 214 ICMEs. For the first time, the projection effects of the linear speed of CMEs are taken into account in this empirical model, which significantly improves the prediction of the arrival time of the shock. In particular, the mean value of the time difference between the observed time of the shock and the predicted time was equal to +3.03 hours with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 18.58 hours and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 22.47 hours. After the improvement of this model, the mean value of the time difference is decreased to -0.28 hours with an MAE of 17.65 hours and an RMSE of 21.55 hours. This improved version was applied to a set of three recent Earth-directed CMEs reported in May, June, and July of 2017, and we compare our results with the values predicted by other related models.

Descent Advisor Preliminary Field Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Steven M.; Vivona, Robert A.; Sanford, Beverly

1995-01-01

A field test of the Descent Advisor (DA) automation tool was conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center in September 1994. DA is being developed to assist Center controllers in the efficient management and control of arrival traffic. DA generates advisories, based on trajectory predictions, to achieve accurate meter-fix arrival times in a fuel efficient manner while assisting the controller with the prediction and resolution of potential conflicts. The test objectives were: (1) to evaluate the accuracy of DA trajectory predictions for conventional and flight-management system equipped jet transports, (2) to identify significant sources of trajectory prediction error, and (3) to investigate procedural and training issues (both air and ground) associated with DA operations. Various commercial aircraft (97 flights total) and a Boeing 737-100 research aircraft participated in the test. Preliminary results from the primary test set of 24 commercial flights indicate a mean DA arrival time prediction error of 2.4 seconds late with a standard deviation of 13.1 seconds. This paper describes the field test and presents preliminary results for the commercial flights.

Cascading Delay Risk of Airline Workforce Deployments with Crew Pairing and Schedule Optimization.

PubMed

Chung, Sai Ho; Ma, Hoi Lam; Chan, Hing Kai

2017-08-01

This article concerns the assignment of buffer time between two connected flights and the number of reserve crews in crew pairing to mitigate flight disruption due to flight arrival delay. Insufficient crew members for a flight will lead to flight disruptions such as delays or cancellations. In reality, most of these disruption cases are due to arrival delays of the previous flights. To tackle this problem, many research studies have examined the assignment method based on the historical flight arrival delay data of the concerned flights. However, flight arrival delays can be triggered by numerous factors. Accordingly, this article proposes a new forecasting approach using a cascade neural network, which considers a massive amount of historical flight arrival and departure data. The approach also incorporates learning ability so that unknown relationships behind the data can be revealed. Based on the expected flight arrival delay, the buffer time can be determined and a new dynamic reserve crew strategy can then be used to determine the required number of reserve crews. Numerical experiments are carried out based on one year of flight data obtained from 112 airports around the world. The results demonstrate that by predicting the flight departure delay as the input for the prediction of the flight arrival delay, the prediction accuracy can be increased. Moreover, by using the new dynamic reserve crew strategy, the total crew cost can be reduced. This significantly benefits airlines in flight schedule stability and cost saving in the current big data era. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Using the ENTLN lightning catalog to identify thunder signals in the USArray Transportable Array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tytell, J. E.; Reyes, J. C.; Vernon, F.; Sloop, C.; Heckman, S.

2013-12-01

Severe weather events can pose a challenge for seismic analysts who regularly see non-seismic signals recorded at the stations. Sometimes, the noise from thunder can be confused with signals from seismic events such as quarry blasts or earthquakes depending on where and when the noise is observed. Automatic analysis of data is also severely affected by big amplitude arrivals that we could safely ignore. A comprehensive lightning catalog for the continental US in conjunction with a travel time model for thunder arrivals can help analysts identify some of these unknown sources. Researchers from Earthscope's USArray Transportable Array (TA) have partnered with the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) in an effort to create such a catalog. Predicted thunder arrivals from some powerful meteorological systems affecting the main TA footprint will undergo extensive evaluation. We will examine the veracity of the predicted arrivals at different distances and azimuths and the time accuracy of the model. A combination of barometric pressure and seismic signals will be use to verify these arrivals.

Maximum Likelihood Time-of-Arrival Estimation of Optical Pulses via Photon-Counting Photodetectors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erkmen, Baris I.; Moision, Bruce E.

2010-01-01

Many optical imaging, ranging, and communications systems rely on the estimation of the arrival time of an optical pulse. Recently, such systems have been increasingly employing photon-counting photodetector technology, which changes the statistics of the observed photocurrent. This requires time-of-arrival estimators to be developed and their performances characterized. The statistics of the output of an ideal photodetector, which are well modeled as a Poisson point process, were considered. An analytical model was developed for the mean-square error of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, demonstrating two phenomena that cause deviations from the minimum achievable error at low signal power. An approximation was derived to the threshold at which the ML estimator essentially fails to provide better than a random guess of the pulse arrival time. Comparing the analytic model performance predictions to those obtained via simulations, it was verified that the model accurately predicts the ML performance over all regimes considered. There is little prior art that attempts to understand the fundamental limitations to time-of-arrival estimation from Poisson statistics. This work establishes both a simple mathematical description of the error behavior, and the associated physical processes that yield this behavior. Previous work on mean-square error characterization for ML estimators has predominantly focused on additive Gaussian noise. This work demonstrates that the discrete nature of the Poisson noise process leads to a distinctly different error behavior.

Modelling personality, plasticity and predictability in shelter dogs

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Behavioural assessments of shelter dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) typically comprise standardized test batteries conducted at one time point, but test batteries have shown inconsistent predictive validity. Longitudinal behavioural assessments offer an alternative. We modelled longitudinal observational data on shelter dog behaviour using the framework of behavioural reaction norms, partitioning variance into personality (i.e. inter-individual differences in behaviour), plasticity (i.e. inter-individual differences in average behaviour) and predictability (i.e. individual differences in residual intra-individual variation). We analysed data on interactions of 3263 dogs (n = 19 281) with unfamiliar people during their first month after arrival at the shelter. Accounting for personality, plasticity (linear and quadratic trends) and predictability improved the predictive accuracy of the analyses compared to models quantifying personality and/or plasticity only. While dogs were, on average, highly sociable with unfamiliar people and sociability increased over days since arrival, group averages were unrepresentative of all dogs and predictions made at the individual level entailed considerable uncertainty. Effects of demographic variables (e.g. age) on personality, plasticity and predictability were observed. Behavioural repeatability was higher one week after arrival compared to arrival day. Our results highlight the value of longitudinal assessments on shelter dogs and identify measures that could improve the predictive validity of behavioural assessments in shelters. PMID:28989764

The Great "Non-Event" of 7 January 2014: Challenges in CME Arrival Time and Geomagnetic Storm Strength Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mays, M. L.; Thompson, B. J.; Jian, L.; Evans, R. M.; Savani, N.; Odstrcil, D.; Nieves-Chinchilla, T.; Richardson, I. G.

2014-12-01

We present a case study of the 7 January 2014 event in order to highlight current challenges in space weather forecasting of CME arrival time and geomagnetic storm strength. On 7 January 2014 an X1.2 flare and CME with a radial speed ~2400 km/s was observed from active region 11943. The flaring region was only ten degrees southwest of disk center with extensive dimming south of the active region and preliminary analysis indicated a fairly rapid arrival at Earth (~36 hours). Of the eleven forecasting groups world-wide who participated in CCMC's Space Weather Scoreboard (http://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/SWScoreBoard), nine predicted early arrivals and six predicted dramatic geomagnetic storm impacts (Kp predictions ranged from 6 to 9). However, the CME only had a glancing blow arrival at Earth - Kp did not rise above 3 and there was no geomagnetic storm. What happened? One idea is that the large coronal hole to the northeast of the active region could have deflected the CME. This coronal hole produced a high speed stream near Earth reaching an uncommon speed of 900 km/s four days after the observed CME arrival. However, no clear CME deflection was observed in the outer coronagraph fields of view (~5-20Rs) where CME measurements are derived to initiate models, therefore deflection seems unlikely. Another idea is the effect of the CME flux rope orientation with respect to Earth orbit. We show that using elliptical major and minor axis widths obtained by GCS fitting for the initial CME parameters in ENLIL would have improved the forecast to better reflect the observed glancing blow in-situ signature. We also explore the WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations, the background solar wind solution, and compare with the observed CME arrival at Venus (from Venus Express) and Earth.

Linking phenological events in migratory passerines with a changing climate: 50 years in the Laurel Highlands of Pennsylvania.

PubMed

McDermott, Molly E; DeGroote, Lucas W

2017-01-01

Advanced timing of both seasonal migration and reproduction in birds has been strongly associated with a warming climate for many bird species. Phenological responses to climate linking these stages may ultimately impact fitness. We analyzed five decades of banding data from 17 migratory bird species to investigate 1) how spring arrival related to timing of breeding, 2) if the interval between arrival and breeding has changed with increasing spring temperatures, and 3) whether arrival timing or breeding timing best predicted local productivity. Four of 17 species, all mid- to long-distance migrants, hatched young earlier in years when migrants arrived earlier to the breeding grounds (~1:1 day advancement). The interval between arrival on breeding grounds and appearance of juveniles shortened with warmer spring temperatures for 12 species (1-6 days for every 1°C increase) and over time for seven species (1-8 days per decade), suggesting that some migratory passerines adapt to climate change by laying more quickly after arrival or reducing the time from laying to fledging. We found more support for the former, that the rate of reproductive advancement was higher than that for arrival in warm years. Timing of spring arrival and breeding were both poor predictors of avian productivity for most migrants analyzed. Nevertheless, we found evidence that fitness benefits may occur from shifts to earlier spring arrival for the multi-brooded Song Sparrow. Our results uniquely demonstrate that co-occurring avian species are phenologically plastic in their response to climate change on their breeding grounds. If migrants continue to show a weaker response to temperatures during migration than breeding, and the window between arrival and optimal breeding shortens further, biological constraints to plasticity may limit the ability of species to adapt successfully to future warming.

Prediction of the Critical Curvature for LX-17 with the Time of Arrival Data from DNS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yao, Jin; Fried, Laurence E.; Moss, William C.

2017-01-10

We extract the detonation shock front velocity, curvature and acceleration from time of arrival data measured at grid points from direct numerical simulations of a 50mm rate-stick lit by a disk-source, with the ignition and growth reaction model and a JWL equation of state calibrated for LX-17. We compute the quasi-steady (D, κ) relation based on the extracted properties and predicted the critical curvatures of LX-17. We also proposed an explicit formula that contains the failure turning point, obtained from optimization for the (D, κ) relation of LX-17.

Connecting white light to in situ observations of 22 coronal mass ejections from the Sun to 1 AU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moestl, C.; Amla, K.; Farrugia, C. J.; Hall, J. R.; Liewer, P. C.; De Jong, E.; Colaninno, R. C.; Vourlidas, A.; Veronig, A. M.; Rollett, T.; Temmer, M.; Peinhart, V.; Davies, J.; Lugaz, N.; Liu, Y. D.; McEnulty, T.; Luhmann, J. G.; Galvin, A. B.

2013-12-01

We study the feasibility of using a Heliospheric Imager (HI) instrument, such as STEREO/HI, for unambiguously connecting remote images to in situ observations of coronal mass ejection (CMEs). Our goal is to develop and test methods to predict CME parameters from heliospheric images, but our dataset can actually be used to benchmark any ICME propagation model. The results are of interest concerning future missions such as Solar Orbiter, or a dedicated space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point (e.g. EASCO mission concept). We compare the predictions for speed and arrival time for 22 CME events (between 2008-2012), each observed remotely by one STEREO spacecraft, to the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) speed and arrival time observed at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). We use forward modeling for STEREO-COR2, and geometrical models for STEREO-HII, assuming different CME front shapes (Fixed-Phi, Harmonic Mean, Self-similar expansion), and fit them to the CME time-elongation functions with the SolarSoft SATPLOT tool, assuming constant CME speed and direction. The arrival times derived from imaging match the in situ ones +/- 8 hours, and speeds are consistent within +/-300 km/s, including CME apex/flank effects. We find no preference in the predictive capability for any of the 3 geometries used on the full dataset, consisting of front- and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to 2700 km/s). We search for new empirical relations between the predicted and observed speeds and arrival times, enhancing the HI predictive capabilities. Additionally, for very fast and back-sided CMEs, strong differences between the results of the HI models arise, consistent with theoretical expectations by Lugaz and Kintner (2013, Solar Physics). This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).

Limiting the Effects of Earthquake Shaking on Gravitational-Wave Interferometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perry, M. R.; Earle, P. S.; Guy, M. R.; Harms, J.; Coughlin, M.; Biscans, S.; Buchanan, C.; Coughlin, E.; Fee, J.; Mukund, N.

2016-12-01

Second-generation ground-based gravitational wave interferometers such as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) are susceptible to high-amplitude waves from teleseismic events, which can cause astronomical detectors to fall out of mechanical lock (lockloss). This causes the data to be useless for gravitational wave detection around the time of the seismic arrivals and for several hours thereafter while the detector stabilizes enough to return to the locked state. The down time can be reduced if advance warning of impending shaking is received and the impact is suppressed in the isolation system with the goal of maintaining lock even at the expense of increased instrumental noise. Here we describe an early warning system for modern gravitational-wave observatories. The system relies on near real-time earthquake alerts provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Hypocenter and magnitude information is typically available within 5 to 20 minutes of the origin time of significant earthquakes, generally before the arrival of high-amplitude waves from these teleseisms at LIGO. These alerts are used to estimate arrival times and ground velocities at the gravitational wave detectors. In general, 94% of the predictions for ground-motion amplitude are within a factor of 5 of measured values. The error in both arrival time and ground-motion prediction introduced by using preliminary, rather than final, hypocenter and magnitude information is minimal with about 90% of the events falling within a factor of 2 of the final predicted value. By using a Machine Learning Algorithm, we develop a lockloss prediction model that calculates the probability that a given earthquake will prevent a detector from taking data. Our initial results indicate that by using detector control configuration changes, we could save lockloss from 40-100 earthquake events in a 6-month time-period.

Predictors of depression among refugees from Vietnam: a longitudinal study of new arrivals.

PubMed

Hinton, W L; Tiet, Q; Tran, C G; Chesney, M

1997-01-01

The present study examined the impact of prearrival traumatic experiences and sociodemographic characteristics on future depression among Vietnamese and Chinese refugees from Vietnam. This is a longitudinal study of newly arrived refugees from Vietnam undergoing a mandatory health screening. A stratified consecutive sample of ethnic Chinese and ethnic Vietnamese refugees was drawn. The depression subscale of the Indochinese Hopkins symptoms checklist was administered to 114 refugees within the first 6 months after arrival in the United States and 12 to 18 months later. Ethnic Vietnamese reported more prearrival trauma compared with ethnic Chinese. Age was strongly correlated with time 2 depression among ethnic Vietnamese but not among ethnic Chinese. Multivariate linear regression analysis revealed that being a veteran, older, unattached, less proficient in English, ethnic Vietnamese, and more depressed at baseline predicted higher depression at follow-up. Although prearrival trauma predicted future depression, other sociodemographic characteristics assumed more importance with time.

Potential for an Arctic-breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification.

PubMed

Lameris, Thomas K; Scholten, Ilse; Bauer, Silke; Cobben, Marleen M P; Ens, Bruno J; Nolet, Bart A

2017-10-01

Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long-distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Unemployment in Iraqi Refugees: The Interaction of Pre and Post-Displacement Trauma

PubMed Central

Wright, A. Michelle; Dhalimi, Abir; Lumley, Mark A.; Jamil, Hikmet; Pole, Nnamdi; Arnetz, Judith E.; Arnetz, Bengt B.

2016-01-01

Previous refugee research has been unable to link pre-displacement trauma with unemployment in the host country. The current study assessed the role of pre-displacement trauma, post-displacement trauma, and the interaction of both trauma types to prospectively examine unemployment in a random sample of newly-arrived Iraqi refugees. Participants (N=286) were interviewed three times over the first two years post-arrival. Refugees were assessed for pre-displacement trauma exposure, post-displacement trauma exposure, a history of unemployment in the country of origin and host country, and symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. Analyses found that neither pre-displacement nor post-displacement trauma independently predicted unemployment 2 years post-arrival; however, the interaction of pre and post-displacement trauma predicted 2-year unemployment. Refugees with high levels of both pre and post-displacement trauma had a 91% predicted probability of unemployment, whereas those with low levels of both traumas had a 20% predicted probability. This interaction remained significant after controlling for sociodemographic variables and mental health upon arrival to the U.S. Resettlement agencies and community organizations should consider the interactive effect of encountering additional trauma after escaping the hardships of the refugee's country of origin. PMID:27535348

Optimizing the arrival, waiting, and NPO times of children on the day of pediatric endoscopy procedures.

PubMed

Smallman, Bettina; Dexter, Franklin

2010-03-01

Research in predictive variability of operating room (OR) times has been performed using data from multidisciplinary, tertiary hospitals with mostly adult patients. In this article, we discuss case-duration prediction for children receiving general anesthesia for endoscopy. We critique which of the several types of OR management decisions dependent on accuracy of prediction are relevant to series (lists) of brief pediatric anesthetics. OR information system data were obtained for all children (aged 18 years and younger) undergoing a gastroenterology procedure with an anesthesiologist over 21 months. Summaries of data were used for a qualitative, systematic review of prior studies to learn which apply to brief pediatric cases. Patient arrival times were changed to be based on the statistical method relating actual and scheduled start times (Wachtel and Dexter, Anesth Analg 2007;105:127-40). Even perfect case-duration prediction would not affect whether a brief case was performed on a certain date and/or in a certain OR. There was no evidence of usefulness in calculating the probability that one case would last longer than another or in resequencing cases to influence postanesthesia care unit staffing or patient waiting from scheduled start times. The only decision for which the accuracy of case-duration prediction mattered was for the shortest time that preceding cases in the OR may take. Knowledge of the preceding procedures in the OR was not useful for that purpose because there were hundreds of combinations of preceding procedures and some cases cancelled. Instead, patient ready times were chosen based on 5% lower prediction bounds for ratios of actual to scheduled OR times. The approach was useful based on a 30% reduction in patient waiting times from scheduled start times with corresponding expected reductions in average and peak numbers of patients in the holding area. For brief pediatric OR anesthetics, predictive variability of case durations matters principally to the extent that it affects appropriate patient ready times. Such times should not be chosen by having patients start fasting, arrive, and be ready fixed numbers of hours before their scheduled start times.

Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory.

PubMed

Möstl, C; Isavnin, A; Boakes, P D; Kilpua, E K J; Davies, J A; Harrison, R A; Barnes, D; Krupar, V; Eastwood, J P; Good, S W; Forsyth, R J; Bothmer, V; Reiss, M A; Amerstorfer, T; Winslow, R M; Anderson, B J; Philpott, L C; Rodriguez, L; Rouillard, A P; Gallagher, P; Nieves-Chinchilla, T; Zhang, T L

2017-07-01

We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%-35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first-order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point.

Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory

PubMed Central

Isavnin, A.; Boakes, P. D.; Kilpua, E. K. J.; Davies, J. A.; Harrison, R. A.; Barnes, D.; Krupar, V.; Eastwood, J. P.; Good, S. W.; Forsyth, R. J.; Bothmer, V.; Reiss, M. A.; Amerstorfer, T.; Winslow, R. M.; Anderson, B. J.; Philpott, L. C.; Rodriguez, L.; Rouillard, A. P.; Gallagher, P.; Nieves‐Chinchilla, T.; Zhang, T. L.

2017-01-01

Abstract We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self‐similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%–35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide‐angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first‐order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun‐Earth L5 point. PMID:28983209

Forecasting spring from afar? Timing of migration and predictability of phenology along different migration routes of an avian herbivore.

PubMed

Kölzsch, Andrea; Bauer, Silke; de Boer, Rob; Griffin, Larry; Cabot, David; Exo, Klaus-Michael; van der Jeugd, Henk P; Nolet, Bart A

2015-01-01

Herbivorous birds are hypothesized to migrate in spring along a seasonal gradient of plant profitability towards their breeding grounds (green wave hypothesis). For Arctic breeding species in particular, following highly profitable food is important, so that they can replenish resources along the way and arrive in optimal body condition to start breeding early. We compared the timing of migratory movements of Arctic breeding geese on different flyways to examine whether flyways differed in the predictability of spring conditions at stopovers and whether this was reflected in the degree to which birds were following the green wave. Barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) were tracked with solar GPS/ARGOS PTTs from their wintering grounds to breeding sites in Greenland (N = 7), Svalbard (N = 21) and the Barents Sea (N = 12). The numerous stopover sites of all birds were combined into a set of 16 general stopover regions. The predictability of climatic conditions along the flyways was calculated as the correlation and slope between onsets of spring at consecutive stopovers. These values differed between sites, mainly because of the presence or absence of ecological barriers. Goose arrival at stopovers was more closely tied to the local onset of spring when predictability was higher and when geese attempted breeding that year. All birds arrived at early stopovers after the onset of spring and arrived at the breeding grounds before the onset of spring, thus overtaking the green wave. This is in accordance with patterns expected for capital breeders: first, they must come into condition; at intermediate stopovers, arrival with the food quality peak is important to stay in condition, and at the breeding grounds, early arrival is favoured so that hatching of young can coincide with the peak of food quality. Our results suggest that a chain of correlations between climatic conditions at subsequent stopovers enables geese to closely track the green wave. However, the birds' precision of migratory timing seems uninfluenced by ecological barriers, indicating partly fixed migration schedules. These might become non-optimal due to climate warming and preclude accurate timing of long-distance migrants in the future. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

The Drag-based Ensemble Model (DBEM) for Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumbović, Mateja; Čalogović, Jaša; Vršnak, Bojan; Temmer, Manuela; Mays, M. Leila; Veronig, Astrid; Piantschitsch, Isabell

2018-02-01

The drag-based model for heliospheric propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a widely used analytical model that can predict CME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric location. It is based on the assumption that the propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space is solely under the influence of magnetohydrodynamical drag, where CME propagation is determined based on CME initial properties as well as the properties of the ambient solar wind. We present an upgraded version, the drag-based ensemble model (DBEM), that covers ensemble modeling to produce a distribution of possible ICME arrival times and speeds. Multiple runs using uncertainty ranges for the input values can be performed in almost real-time, within a few minutes. This allows us to define the most likely ICME arrival times and speeds, quantify prediction uncertainties, and determine forecast confidence. The performance of the DBEM is evaluated and compared to that of ensemble WSA-ENLIL+Cone model (ENLIL) using the same sample of events. It is found that the mean error is ME = ‑9.7 hr, mean absolute error MAE = 14.3 hr, and root mean square error RMSE = 16.7 hr, which is somewhat higher than, but comparable to ENLIL errors (ME = ‑6.1 hr, MAE = 12.8 hr and RMSE = 14.4 hr). Overall, DBEM and ENLIL show a similar performance. Furthermore, we find that in both models fast CMEs are predicted to arrive earlier than observed, most likely owing to the physical limitations of models, but possibly also related to an overestimation of the CME initial speed for fast CMEs.

Different motion cues are used to estimate time-to-arrival for frontoparallel and looming trajectories

PubMed Central

Calabro, Finnegan J.; Beardsley, Scott A.; Vaina, Lucia M.

2012-01-01

Estimation of time-to-arrival for moving objects is critical to obstacle interception and avoidance, as well as to timing actions such as reaching and grasping moving objects. The source of motion information that conveys arrival time varies with the trajectory of the object raising the question of whether multiple context-dependent mechanisms are involved in this computation. To address this question we conducted a series of psychophysical studies to measure observers’ performance on time-to-arrival estimation when object trajectory was specified by angular motion (“gap closure” trajectories in the frontoparallel plane), looming (colliding trajectories, TTC) or both (passage courses, TTP). We measured performance of time-to-arrival judgments in the presence of irrelevant motion, in which a perpendicular motion vector was added to the object trajectory. Data were compared to models of expected performance based on the use of different components of optical information. Our results demonstrate that for gap closure, performance depended only on the angular motion, whereas for TTC and TTP, both angular and looming motion affected performance. This dissociation of inputs suggests that gap closures are mediated by a separate mechanism than that used for the detection of time-to-collision and time-to-passage. We show that existing models of TTC and TTP estimation make systematic errors in predicting subject performance, and suggest that a model which weights motion cues by their relative time-to-arrival provides a better account of performance. PMID:22056519

Infrasound radiated by the Gerdec and Chelopechene explosions: propagation along unexpected paths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, David N.; Vergoz, Julien; Gibson, Robert; Le Pichon, Alexis; Ceranna, Lars

2011-05-01

Infrasound propagation paths through the atmosphere are controlled by the temporally and spatially varying sound speed and wind speed amplitudes. Because of the complexity of atmospheric acoustic propagation it is often difficult to reconcile observed infrasonic arrivals with the sound speed profiles predicted by meteorological specifications. This paper provides analyses of unexpected arrivals recorded in Europe and north Africa from two series of accidental munitions dump explosions, recorded at ranges greater than 1000 km: two explosions at Gerdec, Albania, on 2008 March 15 and four explosions at Chelopechene, Bulgaria, on 2008 July 3. The recorded signal characteristics include multiple pulsed arrivals, celerities between 0.24 and 0.34 km s-1 and some signal frequency content above 1 Hz. Often such characteristics are associated with waves that have propagated within a ground-to-stratosphere waveguide, although the observed celerities extend both above and below the conventional range for stratospheric arrivals. However, state-of-the-art meteorological specifications indicate that either weak, or no, ground-to-stratosphere waveguides are present along the source-to-receiver paths. By incorporating realistic gravity-wave induced horizontal velocity fluctuations into time-domain Parabolic Equation models the pulsed nature of the signals is simulated, and arrival times are predicted to within 30 s of the observed values (<1 per cent of the source-to-receiver transit time). Modelling amplitudes is highly dependent upon estimates of the unknown acoustic source strength (or equivalent chemical explosive yield). Current empirical explosive yield relationships, derived from infrasonic amplitude measurements from point-source chemical explosions, suggest that the equivalent chemical yield of the largest Gerdec explosion was of the order of 1 kt and the largest Chelopechene explosion was of the order of 100 t. When incorporating these assumed yields, the Parabolic Equation simulations predict peak signal amplitudes to within an order of magnitude of the observed values. As gravity wave velocity perturbations can significantly influence both infrasonic arrival times and signal amplitudes they need to be accounted for in source location and yield estimation routines, both of which are important for explosion monitoring, especially in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

Predicting Ambulance Time of Arrival to the Emergency Department Using Global Positioning System and Google Maps

PubMed Central

Fleischman, Ross J.; Lundquist, Mark; Jui, Jonathan; Newgard, Craig D.; Warden, Craig

2014-01-01

Objective To derive and validate a model that accurately predicts ambulance arrival time that could be implemented as a Google Maps web application. Methods This was a retrospective study of all scene transports in Multnomah County, Oregon, from January 1 through December 31, 2008. Scene and destination hospital addresses were converted to coordinates. ArcGIS Network Analyst was used to estimate transport times based on street network speed limits. We then created a linear regression model to improve the accuracy of these street network estimates using weather, patient characteristics, use of lights and sirens, daylight, and rush-hour intervals. The model was derived from a 50% sample and validated on the remainder. Significance of the covariates was determined by p < 0.05 for a t-test of the model coefficients. Accuracy was quantified by the proportion of estimates that were within 5 minutes of the actual transport times recorded by computer-aided dispatch. We then built a Google Maps-based web application to demonstrate application in real-world EMS operations. Results There were 48,308 included transports. Street network estimates of transport time were accurate within 5 minutes of actual transport time less than 16% of the time. Actual transport times were longer during daylight and rush-hour intervals and shorter with use of lights and sirens. Age under 18 years, gender, wet weather, and trauma system entry were not significant predictors of transport time. Our model predicted arrival time within 5 minutes 73% of the time. For lights and sirens transports, accuracy was within 5 minutes 77% of the time. Accuracy was identical in the validation dataset. Lights and sirens saved an average of 3.1 minutes for transports under 8.8 minutes, and 5.3 minutes for longer transports. Conclusions An estimate of transport time based only on a street network significantly underestimated transport times. A simple model incorporating few variables can predict ambulance time of arrival to the emergency department with good accuracy. This model could be linked to global positioning system data and an automated Google Maps web application to optimize emergency department resource use. Use of lights and sirens had a significant effect on transport times. PMID:23865736

Relationship between coronal holes and high speed streams at L1: arrival times, durations, and intensities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, B.; Bu, X.; Liu, S.; Gong, J.

2017-12-01

Coronal holes are sources of high-speed steams (HSS) of solar wind. When coronal holes appear at mid/low latitudes on the Sun, consequential HSSs may impact Earth and cause recurrent geospace environment disturbances, such as geomagnetic storms, relativistic electron enhancements at the geosynchronous orbit, and thermosphere density enhancements. Thus, it is of interests for space weather forecasters to predict when (arrival times), how long (time durations), and how severe (intensities) HSSs may impact Earth when they notice coronal holes on the sun and are anticipating their geoeffectiveness. In this study, relationship between coronal holes and high speed streams will be statistically investigated. Several coronal hole parameters, including passage times of solar central meridian, coronal hole longitudinal widths, intensities reflected by mean brightness, are derived using Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) images for years 2011 to 2016. These parameters will be correlated with in-situ solar wind measurements measured at the L1 point by the ACE spacecraft, which can give some results that are useful for space weather forecaster in predicting the arrival times, durations, and intensities of coronal hole high-speed streams in about 3 days advance.

A seismoacoustic study of the 2011 January 3 Circleville earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrowsmith, Stephen J.; Burlacu, Relu; Pankow, Kristine; Stump, Brian; Stead, Richard; Whitaker, Rod; Hayward, Chris

2012-05-01

We report on a unique set of infrasound observations from a single earthquake, the 2011 January 3 Circleville earthquake (Mw 4.7, depth of 8 km), which was recorded by nine infrasound arrays in Utah. Based on an analysis of the signal arrival times and backazimuths at each array, we find that the infrasound arrivals at six arrays can be associated to the same source and that the source location is consistent with the earthquake epicentre. Results of propagation modelling indicate that the lack of associated arrivals at the remaining three arrays is due to path effects. Based on these findings we form the working hypothesis that the infrasound is generated by body waves causing the epicentral region to pump the atmosphere, akin to a baffled piston. To test this hypothesis, we have developed a numerical seismoacoustic model to simulate the generation of epicentral infrasound from earthquakes. We model the generation of seismic waves using a 3-D finite difference algorithm that accounts for the earthquake moment tensor, source time function, depth and local geology. The resultant acceleration-time histories on a 2-D grid at the surface then provide the initial conditions for modelling the near-field infrasonic pressure wave using the Rayleigh integral. Finally, we propagate the near-field source pressure through the Ground-to-Space atmospheric model using a time-domain Parabolic Equation technique. By comparing the resultant predictions with the six epicentral infrasound observations from the 2011 January 3, Circleville earthquake, we show that the observations agree well with our predictions. The predicted and observed amplitudes are within a factor of 2 (on average, the synthetic amplitudes are a factor of 1.6 larger than the observed amplitudes). In addition, arrivals are predicted at all six arrays where signals are observed, and importantly not predicted at the remaining three arrays. Durations are typically predicted to within a factor of 2, and in some cases much better. These results suggest that measured infrasound from the Circleville earthquake is consistent with the generation of infrasound from body waves in the epicentral region.

Comparative study of predicted and experimentally detected interplanetary shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kartalev, M. D.; Grigorov, K. G.; Smith, Z.; Dryer, M.; Fry, C. D.; Sun, Wei; Deehr, C. S.

2002-03-01

We compare the real time space weather prediction shock arrival times at 1 AU made by the USAF/NOAA Shock Time of Arrival (STOA) and Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model (ISPM) models, and the Exploration Physics International/University of Alaska Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry Solar Wind Model (HAF-v2) to a real time analysis analysis of plasma and field ACE data. The comparison is made using an algorithm that was developed on the basis of wavelet data analysis and MHD identification procedure. The shock parameters are estimated for selected "candidate events". An appropriate automatically performing Web-based interface periodically utilizes solar wind observations made by the ACE at L1. Near real time results as well an archive of the registered interesting events are available on a specially developed web site. A number of events are considered. These studies are essential for the validation of real time space weather forecasts made from solar data.

Adherence to peritoneal dialysis training schedule.

PubMed

Chow, Kai Ming; Szeto, Cheuk Chun; Leung, Chi Bon; Law, Man Ching; Kwan, Bonnie Ching-Ha; Li, Philip Kam-Tao

2007-02-01

Shortening behaviour during peritoneal dialysis training can be easily measured, and likened to the skipping behaviour in haemodialysis subjects, although its effect on peritoneal dialysis outcomes is now well understood. We studied the clinical impact of failing to adhere to a peritoneal dialysis training programme among incident dialysis patients. This study included 159 consecutive inception peritoneal dialysis patients in a single centre from September 1999 through November 2002. We evaluated the effects of behavioural compliance quantified by the per cent time arriving late for scheduled peritoneal dialysis training. The patients were categorized by whether they arrived late in >20% of their peritoneal dialysis training sessions. Of the 159 incident peritoneal dialysis patients (mean age 57 +/- 13 years) who attended peritoneal dialysis training, 70 subjects (44%) arrived late in >20% of the sessions. They were younger by 5 years than patients who arrived late < or =20%. Mean peritonitis-free time for subjects who arrived late for training in >20% the of sessions was 30.9 months, as compared with 41.8 months in subjects with < or =20% late attendance behaviour (log rank test, P = 0.038). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that late attendance behaviour and baseline serum albumin were the only independent risk factors for the time to a first peritonitis after adjustment for diabetes mellitus and relevant coexisting medical factors. Late arrival in >20% of the peritoneal dialysis training sessions was associated with >50% increased likelihood of subsequent peritonitis, with an adjusted risk ratio of 1.56 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-2.39; P = 0.04). These findings show that the behavioural measure of late attendance for peritoneal dialysis training has a crucial role in predicting peritonitis. It may therefore represent a practical strategy for identifying poor adherence or predicting medical outcomes.

Flight Test Results: CTAS Cruise/Descent Trajectory Prediction Accuracy for En route ATC Advisories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, S.; Grace, M.; Williams, D.

1999-01-01

The Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS), under development at NASA Ames Research Center, is designed to assist controllers with the management and control of air traffic transitioning to/from congested airspace. This paper focuses on the transition from the en route environment, to high-density terminal airspace, under a time-based arrival-metering constraint. Two flight tests were conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) to study trajectory-prediction accuracy, the key to accurate Decision Support Tool advisories such as conflict detection/resolution and fuel-efficient metering conformance. In collaboration with NASA Langley Research Center, these test were part of an overall effort to research systems and procedures for the integration of CTAS and flight management systems (FMS). The Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle Boeing 737 airplane flew a combined total of 58 cruise-arrival trajectory runs while following CTAS clearance advisories. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared to CTAS and FMS predictions to measure trajectory-prediction accuracy and identify the primary sources of error for both. The research airplane was used to evaluate several levels of cockpit automation ranging from conventional avionics to a performance-based vertical navigation (VNAV) FMS. Trajectory prediction accuracy was analyzed with respect to both ARTCC radar tracking and GPS-based aircraft measurements. This paper presents detailed results describing the trajectory accuracy and error sources. Although differences were found in both accuracy and error sources, CTAS accuracy was comparable to the FMS in terms of both meter-fix arrival-time performance (in support of metering) and 4D-trajectory prediction (key to conflict prediction). Overall arrival time errors (mean plus standard deviation) were measured to be approximately 24 seconds during the first flight test (23 runs) and 15 seconds during the second flight test (25 runs). The major source of error during these tests was found to be the predicted winds aloft used by CTAS. Position and velocity estimates of the airplane provided to CTAS by the ATC Host radar tracker were found to be a relatively insignificant error source for the trajectory conditions evaluated. Airplane performance modeling errors within CTAS were found to not significantly affect arrival time errors when the constrained descent procedures were used. The most significant effect related to the flight guidance was observed to be the cross-track and turn-overshoot errors associated with conventional VOR guidance. Lateral navigation (LNAV) guidance significantly reduced both the cross-track and turn-overshoot error. Pilot procedures and VNAV guidance were found to significantly reduce the vertical profile errors associated with atmospheric and aircraft performance model errors.

Unemployment in Iraqi refugees: The interaction of pre and post-displacement trauma.

PubMed

Wright, A Michelle; Dhalimi, Abir; Lumley, Mark A; Jamil, Hikmet; Pole, Nnamdi; Arnetz, Judith E; Arnetz, Bengt B

2016-12-01

Previous refugee research has been unable to link pre-displacement trauma with unemployment in the host country. The current study assessed the role of pre-displacement trauma, post-displacement trauma, and the interaction of both trauma types to prospectively examine unemployment in a random sample of newly-arrived Iraqi refugees. Participants (N = 286) were interviewed three times over the first two years post-arrival. Refugees were assessed for pre-displacement trauma exposure, post-displacement trauma exposure, a history of unemployment in the country of origin and host country, and symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. Analyses found that neither pre-displacement nor post-displacement trauma independently predicted unemployment 2 years post-arrival; however, the interaction of pre and post-displacement trauma predicted 2-year unemployment. Refugees with high levels of both pre and post-displacement trauma had a 91% predicted probability of unemployment, whereas those with low levels of both traumas had a 20% predicted probability. This interaction remained significant after controlling for sociodemographic variables and mental health upon arrival to the US. Resettlement agencies and community organizations should consider the interactive effect of encountering additional trauma after escaping the hardships of the refugee's country of origin. © 2016 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Throughput

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yao

2017-01-01

Time-based flow management provides arrival aircraft schedules based on arrival airport conditions, airport capacity, required spacing, and weather conditions. In order to meet a scheduled time at which arrival aircraft can cross an airport arrival meter fix prior to entering the airport terminal airspace, air traffic controllers make regulations on air traffic. Severe weather may create an airport arrival bottleneck if one or more of airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by the weather and the arrival demand has not been reduced accordingly. Under these conditions, aircraft are frequently being put in holding patterns until they can be rerouted. A model that predicts the weather impacted meter fix throughput may help air traffic controllers direct arrival flows into the airport more efficiently, minimizing arrival meter fix congestion. This paper presents an analysis of air traffic flows across arrival meter fixes at the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). Several scenarios of weather impacted EWR arrival fix flows are described. Furthermore, multiple linear regression and regression tree ensemble learning approaches for translating multiple sector Weather Impacted Traffic Indexes (WITI) to EWR arrival meter fix throughputs are examined. These weather translation models are developed and validated using the EWR arrival flight and weather data for the period of April-September in 2014. This study also compares the performance of the regression tree ensemble with traditional multiple linear regression models for estimating the weather impacted throughputs at each of the EWR arrival meter fixes. For all meter fixes investigated, the results from the regression tree ensemble weather translation models show a stronger correlation between model outputs and observed meter fix throughputs than that produced from multiple linear regression method.

An Exploratory Study of Runway Arrival Procedures: Time Based Arrival and Self-Spacing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houston, Vincent E.; Barmore, Bryan

2009-01-01

The ability of a flight crew to deliver their aircraft to its arrival runway on time is important to the overall efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS). Over the past several years, the NAS has been stressed almost to its limits resulting in problems such as airport congestion, flight delay, and flight cancellation to reach levels that have never been seen before in the NAS. It is predicted that this situation will worsen by the year 2025, due to an anticipated increase in air traffic operations to one-and-a-half to three times its current level. Improved arrival efficiency, in terms of both capacity and environmental impact, is an important part of improving NAS operations. One way to improve the arrival performance of an aircraft is to enable the flight crew to precisely deliver their aircraft to a specified point at either a specified time or specified interval relative to another aircraft. This gives the flight crew more control to make the necessary adjustments to their aircraft s performance with less tactical control from the controller; it may also decrease the controller s workload. Two approaches to precise time navigation have been proposed: Time-Based Arrivals (e.g., required times of arrival) and Self-Spacing. Time-Based Arrivals make use of an aircraft s Flight Management System (FMS) to deliver the aircraft to the runway threshold at a given time. Self-Spacing enables the flight crew to achieve an ATC assigned spacing goals at the runway threshold relative to another aircraft. The Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO), a multi-agency initiative established to plan and coordinate the development of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), has asked for data for both of these concepts to facilitate future research and development. This paper provides a first look at the delivery performance of these two concepts under various initial and environmental conditions in an air traffic simulation environment.

Risk-Based, Hypothesis-Driven Framework for Hydrological Field Campaigns with Case Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harken, B.; Rubin, Y.

2014-12-01

There are several stages in any hydrological modeling campaign, including: formulation and analysis of a priori information, data acquisition through field campaigns, inverse modeling, and prediction of some environmental performance metric (EPM). The EPM being predicted could be, for example, contaminant concentration or plume travel time. These predictions often have significant bearing on a decision that must be made. Examples include: how to allocate limited remediation resources between contaminated groundwater sites or where to place a waste repository site. Answering such questions depends on predictions of EPMs using forward models as well as levels of uncertainty related to these predictions. Uncertainty in EPM predictions stems from uncertainty in model parameters, which can be reduced by measurements taken in field campaigns. The costly nature of field measurements motivates a rational basis for determining a measurement strategy that is optimal with respect to the uncertainty in the EPM prediction. The tool of hypothesis testing allows this uncertainty to be quantified by computing the significance of the test resulting from a proposed field campaign. The significance of the test gives a rational basis for determining the optimality of a proposed field campaign. This hypothesis testing framework is demonstrated and discussed using various synthetic case studies. This study involves contaminated aquifers where a decision must be made based on prediction of when a contaminant will arrive at a specified location. The EPM, in this case contaminant travel time, is cast into the hypothesis testing framework. The null hypothesis states that the contaminant plume will arrive at the specified location before a critical amount of time passes, and the alternative hypothesis states that the plume will arrive after the critical time passes. The optimality of different field campaigns is assessed by computing the significance of the test resulting from each one. Evaluating the level of significance caused by a field campaign involves steps including likelihood-based inverse modeling and semi-analytical conditional particle tracking.

Scheduling and Separating Departures Crossing Arrival Flows in Shared Airspace

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chevalley, Eric; Parke, Bonny K.; Lee, Paul; Omar, Faisal; Lee, Hwasoo; Beinert, Nancy; Kraut, Joshua M.; Palmer, Everett

2013-01-01

Flight efficiency and reduction of flight delays are among the primary goals of NextGen. In this paper, we propose a concept of shared airspace where departures fly across arrival flows, provided gaps are available in these flows. We have explored solutions to separate departures temporally from arrival traffic and pre-arranged procedures to support controllers' decisions. We conducted a Human-in-the-Loop simulation and assessed the efficiency and safety of 96 departures from the San Jose airport (SJC) climbing across the arrival airspace of the Oakland and San Francisco arrival flows. In our simulation, the SJC tower had a tool to schedule departures to fly across predicted gaps in the arrival flow. When departures were mistimed and separation could not be ensured, a safe but less efficient route was provided to the departures to fly under the arrival flows. A coordination using a point-out procedure allowed the arrival controller to control the SJC departures right after takeoff. We manipulated the accuracy of departure time (accurate vs. inaccurate) as well as which sector took control of the departures after takeoff (departure vs. arrival sector) in a 2x2 full factorial plan. Results show that coordination time decreased and climb efficiency increased when the arrival sector controlled the aircraft right after takeoff. Also, climb efficiency increased when the departure times were more accurate. Coordination was shown to be a critical component of tactical operations in shared airspace. Although workload, coordination, and safety were judged by controllers as acceptable in the simulation, it appears that in the field, controllers would need improved tools and coordination procedures to support this procedure.

Disorganized junior doctors fail the MRCP (UK).

PubMed

Stanley, Adrian G; Khan, Khalid M; Hussain, Walayat; Tweed, Michael

2006-02-01

Career progression during undergraduate and early postgraduate years is currently determined by successfully passing examinations. Both academic factors (secondary school examination results, learning style and training opportunities) and non-academic factors (maturity, ethnic origin, gender and motivation) have been identified as predicting examination outcome. Few studies have examined organization skills. Disorganized medical students are more likely to perform poorly in end-of-year examinations but this observation has not been examined in junior doctors. This study asked whether organization skills relate to examination outcome amongst junior doctors taking the clinical Part II examination for the Membership of the Royal College of Physicians (Practical Assessment of Clinical Examination Skills). The study was conducted prospectively at four consecutive clinical courses that provided clinical teaching and practice to prepare trainees for the examination. Arrival time at registration for the course was the chosen surrogate for organization skills. Trainees were advised that they should arrive promptly at 8.00 a.m. for registration and it was explained that the course would start at 8.30 a.m. Recorded arrival times were compared with the pass lists published by the Royal College of Physicians. The mean arrival time was 8.17 a.m. A total of 81 doctors (53.3%) passed the examination with a mean arrival time of 8.14 a.m. However, 71 doctors failed the exam and arrived, on average, six minutes later than doctors who passed (p?=?0.006). Better-prepared junior doctors were more likely to pass the final examination. Arriving on time represents a composite of several skills involved in the planning of appropriate travel arrangements and is therefore a valid marker of organization skills and preparation. This novel study has shown that good time-keeping skills are positively associated with examination outcome.

Demonstration of risk based, goal driven framework for hydrological field campaigns and inverse modeling with case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harken, B.; Geiges, A.; Rubin, Y.

2013-12-01

There are several stages in any hydrological modeling campaign, including: formulation and analysis of a priori information, data acquisition through field campaigns, inverse modeling, and forward modeling and prediction of some environmental performance metric (EPM). The EPM being predicted could be, for example, contaminant concentration, plume travel time, or aquifer recharge rate. These predictions often have significant bearing on some decision that must be made. Examples include: how to allocate limited remediation resources between multiple contaminated groundwater sites, where to place a waste repository site, and what extraction rates can be considered sustainable in an aquifer. Providing an answer to these questions depends on predictions of EPMs using forward models as well as levels of uncertainty related to these predictions. Uncertainty in model parameters, such as hydraulic conductivity, leads to uncertainty in EPM predictions. Often, field campaigns and inverse modeling efforts are planned and undertaken with reduction of parametric uncertainty as the objective. The tool of hypothesis testing allows this to be taken one step further by considering uncertainty reduction in the ultimate prediction of the EPM as the objective and gives a rational basis for weighing costs and benefits at each stage. When using the tool of statistical hypothesis testing, the EPM is cast into a binary outcome. This is formulated as null and alternative hypotheses, which can be accepted and rejected with statistical formality. When accounting for all sources of uncertainty at each stage, the level of significance of this test provides a rational basis for planning, optimization, and evaluation of the entire campaign. Case-specific information, such as consequences prediction error and site-specific costs can be used in establishing selection criteria based on what level of risk is deemed acceptable. This framework is demonstrated and discussed using various synthetic case studies. The case studies involve contaminated aquifers where a decision must be made based on prediction of when a contaminant will arrive at a given location. The EPM, in this case contaminant travel time, is cast into the hypothesis testing framework. The null hypothesis states that the contaminant plume will arrive at the specified location before a critical value of time passes, and the alternative hypothesis states that the plume will arrive after the critical time passes. Different field campaigns are analyzed based on effectiveness in reducing the probability of selecting the wrong hypothesis, which in this case corresponds to reducing uncertainty in the prediction of plume arrival time. To examine the role of inverse modeling in this framework, case studies involving both Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation and Bayesian inversion are used.

Real-time Interplanetary Shock Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandegriff, J. D.; Ho, G. C.; Plauger, J. M.

2002-05-01

We are creating a system to predict the arrival times and maximum intensities of energetic storm particle (ESP) events at the earth using particle fluxes measured by the EPAM instrument aboard NASA's ACE spacecraft. Real-time flux measurements, consisting of 5 minute averages made available 24 hours per day by the NOAA Space Environment Center, are fed into algorithms looking for characteristic changes in flux, velocity dispersion, and anisotropy. These quantities typically show changes up to 3 hours before shock passage, and thus we expect our system to deliver enhanced probabilities for shock arrival with approximately the same lead time. Forecasting information will be made publicly available through http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/ACE/EPAM/, the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab web site for the ACE/EPAM instrument. Early results on the training of our algorithms and comparisons with past shock data will be presented.

Timing Comparisons for GLEs and High-energy Proton Events using GPS Proton Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernstein, V.; Winter, L. M.; Carver, M.; Morley, S.

2017-12-01

The newly released LANL GPS particle sensor data offers a unique snapshot of access of relativistic particles into the geomagnetic field. Currently, 23 of the 31 operational GPS satellites host energetic particle detectors which can detect the arrival of high-energy solar protons associated with Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs). We compare the timing profiles of solar energetic proton detections from GPS satellites as well as from ground-based Neutron Monitors and GOES spacecraft at geostationary orbit in order to understand how high-energy protons from the Sun enter the geomagnetic field and investigate potential differences in arrival time of energetic protons at GPS satellites as a function of location. Previous studies could only use one or two spacecraft at a similar altitude to track the arrival of energetic particles. With GPS data, we can now test whether the particles arrive isotropically, as assumed, or whether there exist differences in the timing and energetics viewed by each of the individual satellites. Extensions of this work could lead to improvements in space weather forecasting that predict more localized risk estimates for space-based technology.

ARRIVAL TIME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GRAVITATIONAL WAVES AND ELECTROMAGNETIC SIGNALS DUE TO GRAVITATIONAL LENSING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Takahashi, Ryuichi

In this study we demonstrate that general relativity predicts arrival time differences between gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) signals caused by the wave effects in gravitational lensing. The GW signals can arrive earlier than the EM signals in some cases if the GW/EM signals have passed through a lens, even if both signals were emitted simultaneously by a source. GW wavelengths are much larger than EM wavelengths; therefore, the propagation of the GWs does not follow the laws of geometrical optics, including the Shapiro time delay, if the lens mass is less than approximately 10{sup 5} M {sub ⊙}(more » f /Hz){sup −1}, where f is the GW frequency. The arrival time difference can reach ∼0.1 s ( f /Hz){sup −1} if the signals have passed by a lens of mass ∼8000 M {sub ⊙}( f /Hz){sup −1} with the impact parameter smaller than the Einstein radius; therefore, it is more prominent for lower GW frequencies. For example, when a distant supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) in a galactic center is lensed by an intervening galaxy, the time lag becomes of the order of 10 days. Future pulsar timing arrays including the Square Kilometre Array and X-ray detectors may detect several time lags by measuring the orbital phase differences between the GW/EM signals in the SMBHBs. Gravitational lensing imprints a characteristic modulation on a chirp waveform; therefore, we can deduce whether a measured arrival time lag arises from intrinsic source properties or gravitational lensing. Determination of arrival time differences would be extremely useful in multimessenger observations and tests of general relativity.« less

Dynamic Scheduling for Veterans Health Administration Patients using Geospatial Dynamic Overbooking.

PubMed

Adams, Stephen; Scherer, William T; White, K Preston; Payne, Jason; Hernandez, Oved; Gerber, Mathew S; Whitehead, N Peter

2017-10-12

The Veterans Health Administration (VHA) is plagued by abnormally high no-show and cancellation rates that reduce the productivity and efficiency of its medical outpatient clinics. We address this issue by developing a dynamic scheduling system that utilizes mobile computing via geo-location data to estimate the likelihood of a patient arriving on time for a scheduled appointment. These likelihoods are used to update the clinic's schedule in real time. When a patient's arrival probability falls below a given threshold, the patient's appointment is canceled. This appointment is immediately reassigned to another patient drawn from a pool of patients who are actively seeking an appointment. The replacement patients are prioritized using their arrival probability. Real-world data were not available for this study, so synthetic patient data were generated to test the feasibility of the design. The method for predicting the arrival probability was verified on a real set of taxicab data. This study demonstrates that dynamic scheduling using geo-location data can reduce the number of unused appointments with minimal risk of double booking resulting from incorrect predictions. We acknowledge that there could be privacy concerns with regards to government possession of one's location and offer strategies for alleviating these concerns in our conclusion.

The radial speed-expansion speed relation for Earth-directed CMEs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mäkelä, P.; Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.

2016-05-01

Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main drivers of major geomagnetic storms. Therefore, a good estimate of the disturbance arrival time at Earth is required for space weather predictions. The STEREO and SOHO spacecraft were viewing the Sun in near quadrature during January 2010 to September 2012, providing a unique opportunity to study the radial speed (Vrad)-expansion speed (Vexp) relationship of Earth-directed CMEs. This relationship is useful in estimating the Vrad of Earth-directed CMEs, when they are observed from Earth view only. We selected 19 Earth-directed CMEs observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO)/C3 coronagraph on SOHO and the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI)/COR2 coronagraph on STEREO during January 2010 to September 2012. We found that of the three tested geometric CME models the full ice-cream cone model of the CME describes best the Vrad-Vexp relationship, as suggested by earlier investigations. We also tested the prediction accuracy of the empirical shock arrival (ESA) model proposed by Gopalswamy et al. (2005a), while estimating the CME propagation speeds from the CME expansion speeds. If we use STEREO observations to estimate the CME width required to calculate the Vrad from the Vexp measurements, the mean absolute error (MAE) of the shock arrival times of the ESA model is 8.4 h. If the LASCO measurements are used to estimate the CME width, the MAE still remains below 17 h. Therefore, by using the simple Vrad-Vexp relationship to estimate the Vrad of the Earth-directed CMEs, the ESA model is able to predict the shock arrival times with accuracy comparable to most other more complex models.

Reducing time-to-unit among patients referred to an outpatient stroke assessment unit with a novel triage process: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Bibok, Maximilian B; Votova, Kristine; Balshaw, Robert F; Lesperance, Mary L; Croteau, Nicole S; Trivedi, Anurag; Morrison, Jaclyn; Sedgwick, Colin; Penn, Andrew M

2018-02-27

To evaluate the performance of a novel triage system for Transient Ischemic Attack (TIA) units built upon an existent clinical prediction rule (CPR) to reduce time to unit arrival, relative to the time of symptom onset, for true TIA and minor stroke patients. Differentiating between true and false TIA/minor stroke cases (mimics) is necessary for effective triage as medical intervention for true TIA/minor stroke is time-sensitive and TIA unit spots are a finite resource. Prospective cohort study design utilizing patient referral data and TIA unit arrival times from a regional fast-track TIA unit on Vancouver Island, Canada, accepting referrals from emergency departments (ED) and general practice (GP). Historical referral cohort (N = 2942) from May 2013-Oct 2014 was triaged using the ABCD2 score; prospective referral cohort (N = 2929) from Nov 2014-Apr 2016 was triaged using the novel system. A retrospective survival curve analysis, censored at 28 days to unit arrival, was used to compare days to unit arrival from event date between cohort patients matched by low (0-3), moderate (4-5) and high (6-7) ABCD2 scores. Survival curve analysis indicated that using the novel triage system, prospectively referred TIA/minor stroke patients with low and moderate ABCD2 scores arrived at the unit 2 and 1 day earlier than matched historical patients, respectively. The novel triage process is associated with a reduction in time to unit arrival from symptom onset for referred true TIA/minor stroke patients with low and moderate ABCD2 scores.

Evaluating the Impacts of Real-Time Information on Subway Ridership in New York City

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-05-21

It is now common for transit operators to provide real-time information (RTI) to passengers about the location or predicted arrival times of transit vehicles. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) in New York City has recently made RTI avai...

DTWT (Dispersive Tsunami Wave Tool): a new tool for computing the complete dispersion of tsunami travel time.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reymond, Dominique

2017-04-01

We present a tool for computing the complete arrival times of the dispersed wave-train of a tsunami. The calculus is made using the exact formulation of the tsunami dispersion (and without approximations), at any desired periods between one hour or more (concerning the gravity waves propagation) until 10s (the highly dispersed mode). The computation of the travel times is based on the a summation of the necessary time for a tsunami to cross all the elementary blocs of a grid of bathymetry following a path between the source and receiver at a given period. In addition the source dimensions and the focal mechanism are taken into account to adjust the minimum travel time to the different possible points of emission of the source. A possible application of this tool is to forecast the arrival time of late arrivals of tsunami waves that could produce the resonnance of some bays and sites at higher frequencies than the gravity mode. The theoretical arrival times are compared to the observed ones and to the results obtained by TTT (P. Wessel, 2009) and the ones obtained by numerical simulations. References: Wessel, P. (2009). Analysis of oberved and predicted tsunami travel times for the Pacic and Indian oceans. Pure Appl. Geophys., 166:301-324.

PROPAGATION OF THE 2014 JANUARY 7 CME AND RESULTING GEOMAGNETIC NON-EVENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, M. L.; Collinson, G.; Taktakishvili, A.

2015-10-20

On 2014 January 7 an X1.2 flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) with a radial speed ≈2500 km s{sup −1} was observed from near an active region close to disk center. This led many forecasters to estimate a rapid arrival at Earth (≈36 hr) and predict a strong geomagnetic storm. However, only a glancing CME arrival was observed at Earth with a transit time of ≈49 hr and a K{sub P} geomagnetic index of only 3−. We study the interplanetary propagation of this CME using the ensemble Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)–ENLIL+Cone model, that allows a sampling of CME parameter uncertainties. We exploremore » a series of simulations to isolate the effects of the background solar wind solution, CME shape, tilt, location, size, and speed, and the results are compared with observed in situ arrivals at Venus, Earth, and Mars. Our results show that a tilted ellipsoid CME shape improves the initial real-time prediction to better reflect the observed in situ signatures and the geomagnetic storm strength. CME parameters from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell model used as input to WSA–ENLIL+Cone, along with a tilted ellipsoid cloud shape, improve the arrival-time error by 14.5, 18.7, 23.4 hr for Venus, Earth, and Mars respectively. These results highlight that CME orientation and directionality with respect to observatories play an important role in understanding the propagation of this CME, and for forecasting other glancing CME arrivals. This study also demonstrates the importance of three-dimensional CME fitting made possible by multiple viewpoint imaging.« less

Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The ability to accurately forecast census counts in hospital departments has considerable implications for hospital resource allocation. In recent years several different methods have been proposed forecasting census counts, however many of these approaches do not use available patient-specific information. Methods In this paper we present an ensemble-based methodology for forecasting the census under a framework that simultaneously incorporates both (i) arrival trends over time and (ii) patient-specific baseline and time-varying information. The proposed model for predicting census has three components, namely: current census count, number of daily arrivals and number of daily departures. To model the number of daily arrivals, we use a seasonality adjusted Poisson Autoregressive (PAR) model where the parameter estimates are obtained via conditional maximum likelihood. The number of daily departures is predicted by modeling the probability of departure from the census using logistic regression models that are adjusted for the amount of time spent in the census and incorporate both patient-specific baseline and time varying patient-specific covariate information. We illustrate our approach using neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) data collected at Women & Infants Hospital, Providence RI, which consists of 1001 consecutive NICU admissions between April 1st 2008 and March 31st 2009. Results Our results demonstrate statistically significant improved prediction accuracy for 3, 5, and 7 day census forecasts and increased precision of our forecasting model compared to a forecasting approach that ignores patient-specific information. Conclusions Forecasting models that utilize patient-specific baseline and time-varying information make the most of data typically available and have the capacity to substantially improve census forecasts. PMID:23721123

Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units.

PubMed

Koestler, Devin C; Ombao, Hernando; Bender, Jesse

2013-05-30

The ability to accurately forecast census counts in hospital departments has considerable implications for hospital resource allocation. In recent years several different methods have been proposed forecasting census counts, however many of these approaches do not use available patient-specific information. In this paper we present an ensemble-based methodology for forecasting the census under a framework that simultaneously incorporates both (i) arrival trends over time and (ii) patient-specific baseline and time-varying information. The proposed model for predicting census has three components, namely: current census count, number of daily arrivals and number of daily departures. To model the number of daily arrivals, we use a seasonality adjusted Poisson Autoregressive (PAR) model where the parameter estimates are obtained via conditional maximum likelihood. The number of daily departures is predicted by modeling the probability of departure from the census using logistic regression models that are adjusted for the amount of time spent in the census and incorporate both patient-specific baseline and time varying patient-specific covariate information. We illustrate our approach using neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) data collected at Women & Infants Hospital, Providence RI, which consists of 1001 consecutive NICU admissions between April 1st 2008 and March 31st 2009. Our results demonstrate statistically significant improved prediction accuracy for 3, 5, and 7 day census forecasts and increased precision of our forecasting model compared to a forecasting approach that ignores patient-specific information. Forecasting models that utilize patient-specific baseline and time-varying information make the most of data typically available and have the capacity to substantially improve census forecasts.

A matched-peak inversion approach for ocean acoustic travel-time tomography

PubMed

Skarsoulis

2000-03-01

A new approach for the inversion of travel-time data is proposed, based on the matching between model arrivals and observed peaks. Using the linearized model relations between sound-speed and arrival-time perturbations about a set of background states, arrival times and associated errors are calculated on a fine grid of model states discretizing the sound-speed parameter space. Each model state can explain (identify) a number of observed peaks in a particular reception lying within the uncertainty intervals of the corresponding predicted arrival times. The model states that explain the maximum number of observed peaks are considered as the more likely parametric descriptions of the reception; these model states can be described in terms of mean values and variances providing a statistical answer (matched-peak solution) to the inversion problem. A basic feature of the matched-peak inversion approach is that each reception can be treated independently, i.e., no constraints are posed from previous-reception identification or inversion results. Accordingly, there is no need for initialization of the inversion procedure and, furthermore, discontinuous travel-time data can be treated. The matched-peak inversion method is demonstrated by application to 9-month-long travel-time data from the Thetis-2 tomography experiment in the western Mediterranean sea.

Winter range arrival and departure of white-tailed deer in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, M.E.

1995-01-01

I analyzed 364 spring and 239 fall migrations by 194 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) from 1975 to 1993 in northeastern Minnesota to determine the proximate cause of arrivals on and departures from winter ranges. The first autumn temperatures below -7?C initiated fall migrations for 14% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0-30) of female deer prior to snowfall in three autumns, but only 2% remained on winter ranges. During 14 autumns, the first temperatures below -7?C coincidental with snowfalls elicited migration in 45% (95% CI = 34-57) of females, and 91 % remained on winter ranges. Arrival dates failed to correlate with independent variables of temperature and snow depth, precluding predictive modeling of arrival on winter ranges. During 13 years, a mean of 80% of females permanently arrived on winter ranges by 31 December. Mean departure dates from winter ranges varied annually (19 March - 4 May) and between winter ranges (14 days) and according to snow depth (15-cm differences). Only 15 - 41 % of deer departed when snow depths were> 30 cm but 80% had done so by the time of lO-cm depths. Mean weekly snow depths in March (18-85 cm) and mean temperature in April (0.3 -8.1 ?c) explained most of the variation in mean departure dates from two winter ranges (Ely, R2 = 0.87, P < 0.0005, n = 19 springs; Isabella, R2 = 0.85, P = 0.0001, n = 12 springs). Mean differences between observed mean departure dates and mean departure dates predicted from equations ranged from 3 days (predictions within the study area) to 8 days (predictions for winter ranges 100-440 km distant).

Estimating C-17 Aircrew Seasoning Given a Prediction of Flying Austerity

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

mission classification, operating organization, operating squadron, actual departure time (in Zulu ), actual arrival time (in Zulu ), and flight time in...zero. The horizontal axis is the time axis and is in Julian day units starting with January 1, 2013 and terminates at 2359 Zulu on June 30th 2013

Predicting Arrival Of Protons Emitted In Solar Flares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spagnuolo, John N., Jr.; Schwuttke, Ursula M.; Han, Cecilia S.; Hervias, Felipe

1996-01-01

Visual Utility for Localization of Corona Accelerated Nuclei (VULCAN) computer program provides both advance warnings and insight for post-event analyses of effects of solar flares. Using measurements of peak fluxes, times of detection, flare location, solar wind velocities, and x-ray emissions from Sun, as electronically sent by NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration), VULCAN predicts resulting intensities of proton fluxes at various user-chosen points (spacecraft or planets) of solar system. Also predicts times of onset of fluxes of protons and peak values of fluxes.

Operational, Real-Time, Sun-to-Earth Interplanetary Shock Predictions During Solar Cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fry, C. D.; Dryer, M.; Sun, W.; Deehr, C. S.; Smith, Z.; Akasofu, S.

2002-05-01

We report on our progress in predicting interplanetary shock arrival time (SAT) in real-time, using three forecast models: the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) modified kinematic model, the Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model (ISPM) and the Shock Time of Arrival (STOA) model. These models are run concurrently to provide real-time predictions of the arrival time at Earth of interplanetary shocks caused by solar events. These "fearless forecasts" are the first, and presently only, publicly distributed predictions of SAT and are undergoing quantitative evaluation for operational utility and scientific benchmarking. All three models predict SAT, but the HAF model also provides a global view of the propagation of interplanetary shocks through the pre-existing, non-uniform heliospheric structure. This allows the forecaster to track the propagation of the shock and to differentiate between shocks caused by solar events and those associated with co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs). This study includes 173 events during the period February, 1997 to October, 2000. Shock predictions were compared with spacecraft observations at the L1 location to determine how well the models perform. Sixty-eight shocks were observed at L1 within 120 hours of an event. We concluded that 6 of these observed shocks were caused by CIRs, and the remainder were caused by solar events. The forecast skill of the models are presented in terms of RMS errors, contingency tables and skill scores commonly used by the weather forecasting community. The false alarm rate for HAF was higher than for ISPM or STOA but much lower than for predictions based upon empirical studies or climatology. Of the parameters used to characterize a shock source at the Sun, the initial speed of the coronal shock, as represented by the observed metric type II speed, has the largest influence on the predicted SAT. We also found that HAF model predictions based upon type II speed are generally better for shocks originating from sites near central meridian, and worse for limb events. This tendency suggests that the observed type II speed is more representative of the interplanetary shock speed for events occurring near central meridian. In particular, the type II speed appears to underestimate the actual Earth-directed IP shock speed when the source of the event is near the limb. Several of the most interesting events (Bastille Day epoch (2000), April Fools Day epoch (2001))will be discussed in more detail with the use of real-time animations.

Piloted simulation of a ground-based time-control concept for air traffic control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Thomas J.; Green, Steven M.

1989-01-01

A concept for aiding air traffic controllers in efficiently spacing traffic and meeting scheduled arrival times at a metering fix was developed and tested in a real time simulation. The automation aid, referred to as the ground based 4-D descent advisor (DA), is based on accurate models of aircraft performance and weather conditions. The DA generates suggested clearances, including both top-of-descent-point and speed-profile data, for one or more aircraft in order to achieve specific time or distance separation objectives. The DA algorithm is used by the air traffic controller to resolve conflicts and issue advisories to arrival aircraft. A joint simulation was conducted using a piloted simulator and an advanced concept air traffic control simulation to study the acceptability and accuracy of the DA automation aid from both the pilot's and the air traffic controller's perspectives. The results of the piloted simulation are examined. In the piloted simulation, airline crews executed controller issued descent advisories along standard curved path arrival routes, and were able to achieve an arrival time precision of + or - 20 sec at the metering fix. An analysis of errors generated in turns resulted in further enhancements of the algorithm to improve the predictive accuracy. Evaluations by pilots indicate general support for the concept and provide specific recommendations for improvement.

Testing ElEvoHI on a multi-point in situ detected Coronal Mass Ejection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amerstorfer, Tanja; Möstl, Christian; Hess, Phillip; Mays, M. Leila; Temmer, Manuela

2017-04-01

The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) has provided us a deep insight into the interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Especially the wide-angle heliospheric imagers (HI) enabled the development of a multitude of methods for analyzing the evolution of CMEs through interplanetary (IP) space. Methods able to forecast arrival times and speeds at Earth (or other targets) use the advantage of following a CME's path of propagation up to 1 AU. However, these methods were not able to reduce today's errors in arrival time forecasts to less than ±6 hours, arrival speeds are mostly overestimated by some 100 km s-1. One reason for that is the assumption of constant propagation speed, which is clearly incorrect for most CMEs—especially for those being faster than the ambient solar wind. ElEvoHI, the Ellipse Evolution model (ElEvo) based on HI observations, is a new prediction tool, which uses the benefits of different methods and observations. It provides the possibility to adjust the CME frontal shape (angular width, ellipse aspect ratio) and the direction of motion for each CME event individually. This information can be gained from Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) flux-rope fitting within coronagraph images. Using the Ellipse Conversion (ElCon) method, the observed HI elongation angle is converted into a unit of distance, which reveals the kinematics of the event. After fitting the time-distance profile of the CME using the drag-based equation of motion, where real-time in situ solar wind speed from 1 AU is used as additional input, we receive all input parameters needed to run a forecast using the ElEvo model and to predict arrival times and speeds at any target of interest in IP space. Here, we present a test on a slow CME event of 3 November 2010, in situ detected by the lined-up spacecraft MESSENGER and STEREO Behind. We gain the shape of the CME front from a cut of the 3D GCS CME shape with the ecliptic plane, resulting in an almost ideal ElEvoHI forecast of arrival time and speed at 1 AU.

Estimating uncertainty in subsurface glider position using transmissions from fixed acoustic tomography sources.

PubMed

Van Uffelen, Lora J; Nosal, Eva-Marie; Howe, Bruce M; Carter, Glenn S; Worcester, Peter F; Dzieciuch, Matthew A; Heaney, Kevin D; Campbell, Richard L; Cross, Patrick S

2013-10-01

Four acoustic Seagliders were deployed in the Philippine Sea November 2010 to April 2011 in the vicinity of an acoustic tomography array. The gliders recorded over 2000 broadband transmissions at ranges up to 700 km from moored acoustic sources as they transited between mooring sites. The precision of glider positioning at the time of acoustic reception is important to resolve the fundamental ambiguity between position and sound speed. The Seagliders utilized GPS at the surface and a kinematic model below for positioning. The gliders were typically underwater for about 6.4 h, diving to depths of 1000 m and traveling on average 3.6 km during a dive. Measured acoustic arrival peaks were unambiguously associated with predicted ray arrivals. Statistics of travel-time offsets between received arrivals and acoustic predictions were used to estimate range uncertainty. Range (travel time) uncertainty between the source and the glider position from the kinematic model is estimated to be 639 m (426 ms) rms. Least-squares solutions for glider position estimated from acoustically derived ranges from 5 sources differed by 914 m rms from modeled positions, with estimated uncertainty of 106 m rms in horizontal position. Error analysis included 70 ms rms of uncertainty due to oceanic sound-speed variability.

Global scale observations of scattered energy near the inner-core boundary: Seismic constraints on the base of the outer-core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adam, J. M.-C.; Romanowicz, B.

2015-08-01

We have collected a global dataset of several thousands of high quality records of PKPdf, PKPbc, PKPbc-diff and PKPab phase arrivals in the distance range [149-178°]. Within this collection, we have identified an energy packet that arrives 5-20 s after the PKPbc (or PKPbc-diff) and represents a phase that is not predicted by 1D reference seismic models. We use array analysis techniques to enhance the signal of these scattered phases and show that they originate along the great-circle path in a consistent range of arrival times and narrow range of ray parameters. We therefore refer to this scattered energy the "M" phase. Using the cross-correlation technique to detect and measure the scattered energy arrival times, we compiled a dataset of 1116 records of this M phase. There are no obvious variations with source or station location, nor with the depth of the source. After exploration of possible location for this M phase, we show that its origin is most likely in the vicinity of the inner-core boundary. A tentative model is found that predicts an M-like phase, and produces good fits to its travel times as well as those of the main core phases. In this model, the P velocity profile with depth exhibits an increased gradient from about 400 km to 50 km above the ICB (i.e. slightly faster velocities than in AK135 or PREM), and a ∼ 50 km thick lower velocity layer right above the ICB.

Infrasound wave propagation over near-regional and tele-infrasonic distances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, Sara Mihan House

2005-11-01

Infrasound research is experiencing a renaissance due to advances in acoustic propagation calculations and a deeper understanding of the atmosphere. Uniquely combining observed data and propagation modeling, the three papers presented here quantify the effects of the atmosphere on propagation from a variety of sources at distances from less than 100 km (near-regional distances) to nearly 600 km (tele-infrasonic distances) for sources on the surface and at altitude (63 km). Paper one analyzes infrasound signals recorded at the CHNAR seismo-acoustic array. These sources are predominantly on the surface, result from human activity and occur closer than 250 km away. Propagation for these near-regional distances depends on tropospheric weather patterns and temporally varying, low-altitude ducts. To predict the observed arrivals local meteorological data is necessary; MSIS/HWM (Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter/Horizontal Wind Model) and NRL-G2S (Naval Research Laboratory Ground To Space) did not predict the observed arrivals. Paper two is the first time a waveform from an explosion at height has ever been reproduced; the recorded waveform was from the break-up of the space shuttle Columbia. For the tele-infrasonic normal mode modeling, MSIS/HWM and NRL-G2S yielded identical waveform results. Paper three looks at the tele-infrasonic path between an iron mine in Minnesota and an infrasound array in Manitoba, Canada. Over a four month period, the IS-10 infrasound array provided infrasound data to compare to archived blast statistics. NRL-G2S better reproduced the observed arrival travel times than MSIS/HWM; whether or not arrivals were observed depended on the noise field at the infrasound array. For any distance range or source height, accurate atmospheric parameters from the corresponding propagation paths are necessary to predict observed infrasound.

Prediction of Shock Arrival Times from CME and Flare Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nunez, Marlon; Nieves-Chinchilla, Teresa; Pulkkinen, Antti

2016-01-01

This paper presents the Shock ARrival Model (SARM) for predicting shock arrival times for distances from 0.72 AU to 8.7 AU by using coronal mass ejections (CME) and flare data. SARM is an aerodynamic drag model described by a differential equation that has been calibrated with a dataset of 120 shocks observed from 1997 to 2010 by minimizing the mean absolute error (MAE), normalized to 1 AU. SARM should be used with CME data (radial, earthward or plane-of-sky speeds), and flare data (peak flux, duration, and location). In the case of 1 AU, the MAE and the median of absolute errors were 7.0 h and 5.0 h respectively, using the available CMEflare data. The best results for 1 AU (an MAE of 5.8 h) were obtained using both CME data, either radial or cone-model-estimated speeds, and flare data. For the prediction of shock arrivals at distances from 0.72 AU to 8.7 AU, the normalized MAE and the median were 7.1 h and 5.1 h respectively, using the available CMEflare data. SARM was also calibrated to be used with CME data alone or flare data alone, obtaining normalized MAE errors of 8.9 h and 8.6 h respectively for all shock events. The model verification was carried out with an additional dataset of 20 shocks observed from 2010 to 2012 with radial CME speeds to compare SARM with the empirical ESA model [Gopalswamy et al., 2005a] and the numerical MHD-based ENLIL model [Odstrcil et al., 2004]. The results show that the ENLIL's MAE was lower than the SARM's MAE, which was lower than the ESA's MAE. The SARM's best results were obtained when both flare and true CME speeds were used.

Real-time Interplanetary Shock Prediciton System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandegriff, J.; Ho, G.; Plauger, J.

A system is being developed to predict the arrival times and maximum intensities of energetic storm particle (ESP) events at the earth. Measurements of particle flux values at L1 being made by the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument aboard NASA's ACE spacecraft are made available in real-time by the NOAA Space Environment Center as 5 minute averages of several proton and electron energy channels. Past EPAM flux measurements can be used to train forecasting algorithms which then run on the real-time data. Up to 3 days before the arrival of the interplanetary shock associated with an ESP event, characteristic changes in the particle intensities (such as decreased spectral slope and increased overall flux level) are easily discernable. Once the onset of an event is detected, a neural net is used to forecast the arrival time and flux level for the event. We present results obtained with this technique for forecasting the largest of the ESP events detected by EPAM. Forecasting information will be made publicly available through http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/ACE/EPAM/, the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab web site for the ACE/EPAM instrument.

Real-time forecasting of ICME shock arrivals at L1 during the "April Fool’s Day" epoch: 28 March  21 April 2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, W.; Dryer, M.; Fry, C. D.; Deehr, C. S.; Smith, Z.; Akasofu, S.-I.; Kartalev, M. D.; Grigorov, K. G.

2002-07-01

The Sun was extremely active during the "April Fool’s Day" epoch of 2001. We chose this period between a solar flare on 28 March 2001 to a final shock arrival at Earth on 21 April 2001. The activity consisted of two presumed helmet-streamer blowouts, seven M-class flares, and nine X-class flares, the last of which was behind the west limb. We have been experimenting since February 1997 with real-time, end-to-end forecasting of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) shock arrival times. Since August 1998, these forecasts have been distributed in real-time by e-mail to a list of interested scientists and operational USAF and NOAA forecasters. They are made using three different solar wind models. We describe here the solar events observed during the April Fool’s 2001 epoch, along with the predicted and actual shock arrival times, and the ex post facto correction to the real-time coronal shock speed observations. It appears that the initial estimates of coronal shock speeds from Type II radio burst observations and coronal mass ejections were too high by as much as 30%. We conclude that a 3-dimensional coronal density model should be developed for application to observations of solar flares and their Type II radio burst observations.

The Radial Speed-Expansion Speed Relation for Earth-Directed CMEs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Makela, P.; Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.

2016-01-01

Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main drivers of major geomagnetic storms. Therefore, a good estimate of the disturbance arrival time at Earth is required for space weather predictions. The STEREO and SOHO spacecraft were viewing the Sun in near quadrature during January 2010 to September 2012, providing a unique opportunity to study the radial speed (V (sub rad)) to expansion speed(V (sub exp)) relationship of Earth-directed CMEs. This relationship is useful in estimating the V (sub rad) of Earth-directed CMEs, when they are observed from Earth view only. We selected 19 Earth-directed CMEs observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO)/C3 coronagraph on SOHO and the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI)/COR2 coronagraph on STEREO during January 2010 to September 2012. We found that of the three tested geometric CME models the full ice-cream cone model of the CME describes best the V (sub rad) to V (sub exp) relationship, as suggested by earlier investigations. We also tested the prediction accuracy of the empirical shock arrival (ESA) model proposed by Gopalswamy et al.(2005a), while estimating the CME propagation speeds from the CME expansion speeds. If we use STEREO observations to estimate the CME width required to calculate the V (sub rad) from the V (sub exp) measurements, the mean absolute error (MAE) of the shock arrival times of the ESA model is 8.4 hours. If the LASCO measurements are used to estimate the CME width, the MAE still remains below 17 hours. Therefore, by using the simple V (sub rad) to V (sub exp) relationship to estimate the V (sub rad) of the Earth-directed CMEs, the ESA model is able to predict the shock arrival times with accuracy comparable to most other more complex models.

Multiple-Event Seismic Location Using the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, S. C.; Johannesson, G.; Hanley, W.

2005-12-01

We develop a new multiple-event location algorithm (MCMCloc) that utilizes the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Unlike most inverse methods, the MCMC approach produces a suite of solutions, each of which is consistent with observations and prior estimates of data and model uncertainties. Model parameters in MCMCloc consist of event hypocenters, and travel-time predictions. Data are arrival time measurements and phase assignments. Posteriori estimates of event locations, path corrections, pick errors, and phase assignments are made through analysis of the posteriori suite of acceptable solutions. Prior uncertainty estimates include correlations between travel-time predictions, correlations between measurement errors, the probability of misidentifying one phase for another, and the probability of spurious data. Inclusion of prior constraints on location accuracy allows direct utilization of ground-truth locations or well-constrained location parameters (e.g. from InSAR) that aid in the accuracy of the solution. Implementation of a correlation structure for travel-time predictions allows MCMCloc to operate over arbitrarily large geographic areas. Transition in behavior between a multiple-event locator for tightly clustered events and a single-event locator for solitary events is controlled by the spatial correlation of travel-time predictions. We test the MCMC locator on a regional data set of Nevada Test Site nuclear explosions. Event locations and origin times are known for these events, allowing us to test the features of MCMCloc using a high-quality ground truth data set. Preliminary tests suggest that MCMCloc provides excellent relative locations, often outperforming traditional multiple-event location algorithms, and excellent absolute locations are attained when constraints from one or more ground truth event are included. When phase assignments are switched, we find that MCMCloc properly corrects the error when predicted arrival times are separated by several seconds. In cases where the predicted arrival times are within the combined uncertainty of prediction and measurement errors, MCMCloc determines the probability of one or the other phase assignment and propagates this uncertainty into all model parameters. We find that MCMCloc is a promising method for simultaneously locating large, geographically distributed data sets. Because we incorporate prior knowledge on many parameters, MCMCloc is ideal for combining trusted data with data of unknown reliability. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No. W-7405-Eng-48, Contribution UCRL-ABS-215048

Design of a final approach spacing tool for TRACON air traffic control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Thomas J.; Erzberger, Heinz; Bergeron, Hugh

1989-01-01

This paper describes an automation tool that assists air traffic controllers in the Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) Facilities in providing safe and efficient sequencing and spacing of arrival traffic. The automation tool, referred to as the Final Approach Spacing Tool (FAST), allows the controller to interactively choose various levels of automation and advisory information ranging from predicted time errors to speed and heading advisories for controlling time error. FAST also uses a timeline to display current scheduling and sequencing information for all aircraft in the TRACON airspace. FAST combines accurate predictive algorithms and state-of-the-art mouse and graphical interface technology to present advisory information to the controller. Furthermore, FAST exchanges various types of traffic information and communicates with automation tools being developed for the Air Route Traffic Control Center. Thus it is part of an integrated traffic management system for arrival traffic at major terminal areas.

Evaluation of Trajectory Errors in an Automated Terminal-Area Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oseguera-Lohr, Rosa M.; Williams, David H.

2003-01-01

A piloted simulation experiment was conducted to document the trajectory errors associated with use of an airplane's Flight Management System (FMS) in conjunction with a ground-based ATC automation system, Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) in the terminal area. Three different arrival procedures were compared: current-day (vectors from ATC), modified (current-day with minor updates), and data link with FMS lateral navigation. Six active airline pilots flew simulated arrivals in a fixed-base simulator. The FMS-datalink procedure resulted in the smallest time and path distance errors, indicating that use of this procedure could reduce the CTAS arrival-time prediction error by about half over the current-day procedure. Significant sources of error contributing to the arrival-time error were crosstrack errors and early speed reduction in the last 2-4 miles before the final approach fix. Pilot comments were all very positive, indicating the FMS-datalink procedure was easy to understand and use, and the increased head-down time and workload did not detract from the benefit. Issues that need to be resolved before this method of operation would be ready for commercial use include development of procedures acceptable to controllers, better speed conformance monitoring, and FMS database procedures to support the approach transitions.

Prediction system of the 1-AU arrival times of CME-associated interplanetary shocks using three-dimensional simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

den, Mitsue; Amo, Hiroyoshi; Sugihara, Kohta; Takei, Toshifumi; Ogawa, Tomoya; Tanaka, Takashi; Watari, Shinichi

We describe prediction system of the 1-AU arrival times of interplanetary shock waves associated with coromal mass ejections (CMEs). The system is based on modeling of the shock propagation using a three-dimensional adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) code. Once a CME is observed by LASCO/SOHO, firstly ambient solar wind is obtained by numerical simulation, which reproduces the solar wind parameters at that time observed by ACE spacecraft. Then we input the expansion speed and occurrence position data of that CME as initial condtions for an CME model, and 3D simulation of the CME and the shock propagation is perfomed until the shock wave passes the 1-AU. Input the parameters, execution of simulation and output of the result are available on Web, so a person who is not familiar with operation of computer or simulations or is not a researcher can use this system to predict the shock passage time. Simulated CME and shock evolution is visuallized at the same time with simulation and snap shots appear on the web automatically, so that user can follow the propagation. This system is expected to be useful for forecasters of space weather. We will describe the system and simulation model in detail.

Auto-detection of Halo CME Parameters as the Initial Condition of Solar Wind Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Kyu-Cheol; Park, Mi-Young; Kim, Jae-Hun

2017-12-01

Halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) originating from solar activities give rise to geomagnetic storms when they reach the Earth. Variations in the geomagnetic field during a geomagnetic storm can damage satellites, communication systems, electrical power grids, and power systems, and induce currents. Therefore, automated techniques for detecting and analyzing halo CMEs have been eliciting increasing attention for the monitoring and prediction of the space weather environment. In this study, we developed an algorithm to sense and detect halo CMEs using large angle and spectrometric coronagraph (LASCO) C3 coronagraph images from the solar and heliospheric observatory (SOHO) satellite. In addition, we developed an image processing technique to derive the morphological and dynamical characteristics of halo CMEs, namely, the source location, width, actual CME speed, and arrival time at a 21.5 solar radius. The proposed halo CME automatic analysis model was validated using a model of the past three halo CME events. As a result, a solar event that occurred at 03:38 UT on Mar. 23, 2014 was predicted to arrive at Earth at 23:00 UT on Mar. 25, whereas the actual arrival time was at 04:30 UT on Mar. 26, which is a difference of 5 hr and 30 min. In addition, a solar event that occurred at 12:55 UT on Apr. 18, 2014 was estimated to arrive at Earth at 16:00 UT on Apr. 20, which is 4 hr ahead of the actual arrival time of 20:00 UT on the same day. However, the estimation error was reduced significantly compared to the ENLIL model. As a further study, the model will be applied to many more events for validation and testing, and after such tests are completed, on-line service will be provided at the Korean Space Weather Center to detect halo CMEs and derive the model parameters.

Case Study: Influences of Uncertainties and Traffic Scenario Difficulties in a Human-in-the-Loop Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bienert, Nancy; Mercer, Joey; Homola, Jeffrey; Morey, Susan; Prevot, Thomas

2014-01-01

This paper presents a case study of how factors such as wind prediction errors and metering delays can influence controller performance and workload in Human-In-The-Loop simulations. Retired air traffic controllers worked two arrival sectors adjacent to the terminal area. The main tasks were to provide safe air traffic operations and deliver the aircraft to the metering fix within +/- 25 seconds of the scheduled arrival time with the help of provided decision support tools. Analyses explore the potential impact of metering delays and system uncertainties on controller workload and performance. The results suggest that trajectory prediction uncertainties impact safety performance, while metering fix accuracy and workload appear subject to the scenario difficulty.

Effective distances for epidemics spreading on complex networks.

PubMed

Iannelli, Flavio; Koher, Andreas; Brockmann, Dirk; Hövel, Philipp; Sokolov, Igor M

2017-01-01

We show that the recently introduced logarithmic metrics used to predict disease arrival times on complex networks are approximations of more general network-based measures derived from random walks theory. Using the daily air-traffic transportation data we perform numerical experiments to compare the infection arrival time with this alternative metric that is obtained by accounting for multiple walks instead of only the most probable path. The comparison with direct simulations reveals a higher correlation compared to the shortest-path approach used previously. In addition our method allows to connect fundamental observables in epidemic spreading with the cumulant-generating function of the hitting time for a Markov chain. Our results provides a general and computationally efficient approach using only algebraic methods.

Effective distances for epidemics spreading on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iannelli, Flavio; Koher, Andreas; Brockmann, Dirk; Hövel, Philipp; Sokolov, Igor M.

2017-01-01

We show that the recently introduced logarithmic metrics used to predict disease arrival times on complex networks are approximations of more general network-based measures derived from random walks theory. Using the daily air-traffic transportation data we perform numerical experiments to compare the infection arrival time with this alternative metric that is obtained by accounting for multiple walks instead of only the most probable path. The comparison with direct simulations reveals a higher correlation compared to the shortest-path approach used previously. In addition our method allows to connect fundamental observables in epidemic spreading with the cumulant-generating function of the hitting time for a Markov chain. Our results provides a general and computationally efficient approach using only algebraic methods.

Pulsar Timing and Its Application for Navigation and Gravitational Wave Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Werner; Kramer, Michael; Sesana, Alberto

2018-02-01

Pulsars are natural cosmic clocks. On long timescales they rival the precision of terrestrial atomic clocks. Using a technique called pulsar timing, the exact measurement of pulse arrival times allows a number of applications, ranging from testing theories of gravity to detecting gravitational waves. Also an external reference system suitable for autonomous space navigation can be defined by pulsars, using them as natural navigation beacons, not unlike the use of GPS satellites for navigation on Earth. By comparing pulse arrival times measured on-board a spacecraft with predicted pulse arrivals at a reference location (e.g. the solar system barycenter), the spacecraft position can be determined autonomously and with high accuracy everywhere in the solar system and beyond. We describe the unique properties of pulsars that suggest that such a navigation system will certainly have its application in future astronautics. We also describe the on-going experiments to use the clock-like nature of pulsars to "construct" a galactic-sized gravitational wave detector for low-frequency (f_{GW}˜ 10^{-9} - 10^{-7} Hz) gravitational waves. We present the current status and provide an outlook for the future.

Evaluation of the 2008 Predictions of Run-Timing and Survival of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook and Steelhead on the Columbia and Snake Rivers.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beer, W. Nicholas; Iltis, Susannah; Anderson, James J.

2009-01-01

Columbia Basin Research uses the COMPASS model on a daily basis during the outmigration of Snake River Chinook and steelhead smolts to predict downstream passage and survival. Fish arrival predictions and observations from program RealTime along with predicted and observed environmental conditions are used to make in-season predictions of arrival and survival to various dams in the Columbia and Snake Rivers. For 2008, calibrations of travel and survival parameters for two stocks of fish-Snake River yearling PIT-tagged wild chinook salmon (chin1pit) and Snake River PIT-tagged steelhead (lgrStlhd)-were used to model travel and survival of steelhead and chinook stocks from Lowermore » Granite Dam (LWG) or McNary Dam (MCN) to Bonneville Dam (BON). This report summarizes the success of the COMPASS/RealTime process to model these migrations as they occur. We compared model results on timing and survival to data from two sources: stock specific counts at dams and end-of-season control survival estimates (Jim Faulkner, NOAA, pers. comm. Dec. 16, 2008). The difference between the predicted and observed day of median passage and the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) between predicted and observed arrival cumulative distributions are measures of timing accuracy. MAD is essentially the average percentage error over the season. The difference between the predicted and observed survivals is a measure of survival accuracy. Model results and timing data were in good agreement from LWG to John Day Dam (JDA). Predictions of median passage days for the chin1pit and lgrStlhd stocks were 0 and 2 days (respectively) later than observed. MAD for chin1pit and lgrStlhd stocks at JDA were 2.3% and 5.9% (respectively). Between JDA and BON modeling and timing data were not as well matched. At BON, median passage predictions were 6 and 10 days later than observed and MAD values were 7.8% and 16.0% respectively. Model results and survival data were in good agreement from LWG to MCN. COMPASS predicted survivals of 0.77 and 0.69 for chin1pit and lgrStlhd, while the data control's survivals were 0.79 and 0.68. The differences are 0.02 and 0.01 (respectively), nearly identical. However, from MCN to BON, COMPASS predicted survivals of 0.74 and 0.69 while the data controls survivals were 0.47 and 0.53 respectively. Differences of 0.27 and 0.16. In summary: Travel and survival of chin1pit and lgrStlhd stocks were well modeled in the upper reaches. Fish in the lower reaches down through BON suffered unmodeled mortality, and/or passed BON undetected. A drop in bypass fraction and unmodeled mortality during the run could produce such patterns by shifting the observed median passage day to appear artificially early.« less

Simulation Test Of Descent Advisor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Thomas J.; Green, Steven M.

1991-01-01

Report describes piloted-simulation test of Descent Advisor (DA), subsystem of larger automation system being developed to assist human air-traffic controllers and pilots. Focuses on results of piloted simulation, in which airline crews executed controller-issued descent advisories along standard curved-path arrival routes. Crews able to achieve arrival-time precision of plus or minus 20 seconds at metering fix. Analysis of errors generated in turns resulted in further enhancements of algorithm to increase accuracies of its predicted trajectories. Evaluations by pilots indicate general support for DA concept and provide specific recommendations for improvement.

A Wavelet Support Vector Machine Combination Model for Singapore Tourist Arrival to Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafidah, A.; Shabri, Ani; Nurulhuda, A.; Suhaila, Y.

2017-08-01

In this study, wavelet support vector machine model (WSVM) is proposed and applied for monthly data Singapore tourist time series prediction. The WSVM model is combination between wavelet analysis and support vector machine (SVM). In this study, we have two parts, first part we compare between the kernel function and second part we compare between the developed models with single model, SVM. The result showed that kernel function linear better than RBF while WSVM outperform with single model SVM to forecast monthly Singapore tourist arrival to Malaysia.

Cancellation of spurious arrivals in Green's function extraction and the generalized optical theorem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snieder, R.; Van Wijk, K.; Haney, M.; Calvert, R.

2008-01-01

The extraction of the Green's function by cross correlation of waves recorded at two receivers nowadays finds much application. We show that for an arbitrary small scatterer, the cross terms of scattered waves give an unphysical wave with an arrival time that is independent of the source position. This constitutes an apparent inconsistency because theory predicts that such spurious arrivals do not arise, after integration over a complete source aperture. This puzzling inconsistency can be resolved for an arbitrary scatterer by integrating the contribution of all sources in the stationary phase approximation to show that the stationary phase contributions to the source integral cancel the spurious arrival by virtue of the generalized optical theorem. This work constitutes an alternative derivation of this theorem. When the source aperture is incomplete, the spurious arrival is not canceled and could be misinterpreted to be part of the Green's function. We give an example of how spurious arrivals provide information about the medium complementary to that given by the direct and scattered waves; the spurious waves can thus potentially be used to better constrain the medium. ?? 2008 The American Physical Society.

PREDICTING CME EJECTA AND SHEATH FRONT ARRIVAL AT L1 WITH A DATA-CONSTRAINED PHYSICAL MODEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hess, Phillip; Zhang, Jie, E-mail: phess4@gmu.edu

2015-10-20

We present a method for predicting the arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) flux rope in situ, as well as the sheath of solar wind plasma accumulated ahead of the driver. For faster CMEs, the front of this sheath will be a shock. The method is based upon geometrical separate measurement of the CME ejecta and sheath. These measurements are used to constrain a drag-based model, improved by including both a height dependence and accurate de-projected velocities. We also constrain the geometry of the model to determine the error introduced as a function of the deviation of the CMEmore » nose from the Sun–Earth line. The CME standoff-distance in the heliosphere fit is also calculated, fit, and combined with the ejecta model to determine sheath arrival. Combining these factors allows us to create predictions for both fronts at the L1 point and compare them against observations. We demonstrate an ability to predict the sheath arrival with an average error of under 3.5 hr, with an rms error of about 1.58 hr. For the ejecta the error is less than 1.5 hr, with an rms error within 0.76 hr. We also discuss the physical implications of our model for CME expansion and density evolution. We show the power of our method with ideal data and demonstrate the practical implications of having a permanent L5 observer with space weather forecasting capabilities, while also discussing the limitations of the method that will have to be addressed in order to create a real-time forecasting tool.« less

Variation in the Prediction of Cross-Cultural Adjustment by Ethnic Density: A Longitudinal Study of Taiwanese Students in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ying, Yu-Wen; Han, Meekyung

2008-01-01

The study examined variation in the prediction of adjustment in Taiwanese students by ethnic density. A total of 155 Taiwanese students were assessed via survey pre-departure and three times post-arrival in the United States. Hierarchical regression analysis showed students on campuses with fewer other Taiwanese peers formed more friendships with…

THE NANOGRAV NINE-YEAR DATA SET: EXCESS NOISE IN MILLISECOND PULSAR ARRIVAL TIMES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lam, M. T.; Jones, M. L.; McLaughlin, M. A.

Gravitational wave (GW) astronomy using a pulsar timing array requires high-quality millisecond pulsars (MSPs), correctable interstellar propagation delays, and high-precision measurements of pulse times of arrival. Here we identify noise in timing residuals that exceeds that predicted for arrival time estimation for MSPs observed by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. We characterize the excess noise using variance and structure function analyses. We find that 26 out of 37 pulsars show inconsistencies with a white-noise-only model based on the short timescale analysis of each pulsar, and we demonstrate that the excess noise has a red power spectrum formore » 15 pulsars. We also decompose the excess noise into chromatic (radio-frequency-dependent) and achromatic components. Associating the achromatic red-noise component with spin noise and including additional power-spectrum-based estimates from the literature, we estimate a scaling law in terms of spin parameters (frequency and frequency derivative) and data-span length and compare it to the scaling law of Shannon and Cordes. We briefly discuss our results in terms of detection of GWs at nanohertz frequencies.« less

Experimental Evaluation of CTAS/FMS Integration in TRACON Airspace

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romahn, Stephen; Palmer, Everett; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

A CTAS/FMS integration project at Ames Research Center addresses extensions to the CTAS air traffic management concept, among them the introduction of arrival routes specially designed for the use with a Flight Management System. These FMS arrival routes shall allow for the use of the INS' lateral and vertical navigation capabilities throughout the arrival until final approach. For the use in this project CTAS controller support tools that compliment the concept have been created. These tools offer controllers access to CTAS' prediction and planning capabilities in terms of speed and route advisories. The objective is to allow for a more strategic way of controlling aircraft. Expected benefits are an increase in arrival rate and a reduction of average travel times through TRACER airspace. A real time simulation is being conducted at Ames to investigate how FMS arrivals and approach transitions - with and without the support of CTAS tools - effect the flow of arriving traffic within TRACER airspace and the controllers' task performance. Four conditions will be investigated and compared to today's technique of controlling traffic with tactical vectoring: 1. FMS arrivals and approach transitions are available for controllers to issue to equipped aircraft - traffic permitting; 2. Speed advisories that match CTAS' runway balancing and sequencing plan are displayed to Feeder controllers; 3. Approach transition advisories (e.g., location of the base turn point) are displayed to Final controllers for tactical clearances ("Turn base now"); and 4. Approach transition advisories (voice and data link) are generated by CTAS and displayed to final controllers for strategic voice clearances ("Turn base five miles after waypoint xyz") or prepared in terms of a trajectory description for strategic data link clearance. Scenarios used in the study will represent current traffic and vary in density of arriving traffic and the kind and mix of equipage of arriving aircraft. Data will be collected from experiment runs with active TRACON controllers on the final approach spacing, the aircraft's speed profiles, the controllers interaction with CTAS tools, and number and timing of pilot controllers communications under the described conditions.

A fire management simulation model using stochastic arrival times

Treesearch

Eric L. Smith

1987-01-01

Fire management simulation models are used to predict the impact of changes in the fire management program on fire outcomes. As with all models, the goal is to abstract reality without seriously distorting relationships between variables of interest. One important variable of fire organization performance is the length of time it takes to get suppression units to the...

GIS Based System for Post-Earthquake Crisis Managment Using Cellular Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raeesi, M.; Sadeghi-Niaraki, A.

2013-09-01

Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural disasters. Earthquakes happen mainly near the edges of tectonic plates, but they may happen just about anywhere. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Quick response after disasters, like earthquake, decreases loss of life and costs. Massive earthquakes often cause structures to collapse, trapping victims under dense rubble for long periods of time. After the earthquake and destroyed some areas, several teams are sent to find the location of the destroyed areas. The search and rescue phase usually is maintained for many days. Time reduction for surviving people is very important. A Geographical Information System (GIS) can be used for decreasing response time and management in critical situations. Position estimation in short period of time time is important. This paper proposes a GIS based system for post-earthquake disaster management solution. This system relies on several mobile positioning methods such as cell-ID and TA method, signal strength method, angel of arrival method, time of arrival method and time difference of arrival method. For quick positioning, the system can be helped by any person who has a mobile device. After positioning and specifying the critical points, the points are sent to a central site for managing the procedure of quick response for helping. This solution establishes a quick way to manage the post-earthquake crisis.

The Dynamic Planner: The Sequencer, Scheduler, and Runway Allocator for Air Traffic Control Automation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, Gregory L.; Denery, Dallas (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The Dynamic Planner (DP) has been designed, implemented, and integrated into the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) to assist Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs), in real time, with the task of planning and scheduling arrival traffic approximately 35 to 200 nautical miles from the destination airport. The TMC may input to the DP a series of current and future scheduling constraints that reflect the operation and environmental conditions of the airspace. Under these constraints, the DP uses flight plans, track updates, and Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) predictions to calculate optimal runway assignments and arrival schedules that help ensure an orderly, efficient, and conflict-free flow of traffic into the terminal area. These runway assignments and schedules can be shown directly to controllers or they can be used by other CTAS tools to generate advisories to the controllers. Additionally, the TMC and controllers may override the decisions made by the DP for tactical considerations. The DP will adapt to computations to accommodate these manual inputs.

Lead-Time Bias and Interhospital Transfer after Injury: Trauma Center Admission Vital Signs Underpredict Mortality in Transferred Trauma Patients.

PubMed

Holena, Daniel N; Wiebe, Douglas J; Carr, Brendan G; Hsu, Jesse Y; Sperry, Jason L; Peitzman, Andrew B; Reilly, Patrick M

2017-03-01

Admission physiology predicts mortality after injury, but may be improved by resuscitation before transfer. This phenomenon, which has been termed lead-time bias, may lead to underprediction of mortality in transferred patients and inaccurate benchmarking in centers receiving large numbers of transfer patients. We sought to determine the impact of using vital signs on arrival at the referring center vs on arrival at the trauma center in mortality prediction models for transferred trauma patients. We performed a retrospective cohort study using a state-wide trauma registry including all patients age 16 years or older, with Abbreviated Injury Scale scores ≥ 3, admitted to level I and II trauma centers in Pennsylvania, from 2011 to 2014. The primary outcomes measure was the risk-adjusted association between mortality and interhospital transfer (IHT) when adjusting for physiology (as measured by Revised Trauma Score [RTS]) using the referring hospital arrival vital signs (model 1) compared with trauma center arrival vital signs (model 2). After adjusting for patient and injury factors, IHT was associated with reduced mortality (odds ratio [OR] 0.85; 95% CI 0.77 to 0.93) using the RTS from trauma center admission, but with increased mortality (OR 1.15; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.27) using RTS from the referring hospital. The greater the number of transfer patients seen by a center, the greater the difference in center-level mortality predicted by the 2 models (β -0.044; 95% CI -0.044 to -0.0043; p ≤ 0.001). Trauma center vital signs underestimate mortality in transfer patients and may lead to incorrect estimates of expected mortality. Where possible, benchmarking efforts should use referring hospital vital signs to risk-adjust IHT patients. Copyright © 2016 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical validation of a solar wind propagation model from 1 to 10 AU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zieger, Bertalan; Hansen, Kenneth C.

2008-08-01

A one-dimensional (1-D) numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code is applied to propagate the solar wind from 1 AU through 10 AU, i.e., beyond the heliocentric distance of Saturn's orbit, in a non-rotating frame of reference. The time-varying boundary conditions at 1 AU are obtained from hourly solar wind data observed near the Earth. Although similar MHD simulations have been carried out and used by several authors, very little work has been done to validate the statistical accuracy of such solar wind predictions. In this paper, we present an extensive analysis of the prediction efficiency, using 12 selected years of solar wind data from the major heliospheric missions Pioneer, Voyager, and Ulysses. We map the numerical solution to each spacecraft in space and time, and validate the simulation, comparing the propagated solar wind parameters with in-situ observations. We do not restrict our statistical analysis to the times of spacecraft alignment, as most of the earlier case studies do. Our superposed epoch analysis suggests that the prediction efficiency is significantly higher during periods with high recurrence index of solar wind speed, typically in the late declining phase of the solar cycle. Among the solar wind variables, the solar wind speed can be predicted to the highest accuracy, with a linear correlation of 0.75 on average close to the time of opposition. We estimate the accuracy of shock arrival times to be as high as 10-15 hours within ±75 d from apparent opposition during years with high recurrence index. During solar activity maximum, there is a clear bias for the model to predicted shocks arriving later than observed in the data, suggesting that during these periods, there is an additional acceleration mechanism in the solar wind that is not included in the model.

Temporal Constraint Propagation for Airlift Planning Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-12-01

STATIOU KMSP) (OFFLOAD-STATION EGUN ) (AVAILABLE-TIME COIO) (EARLIEST-ARRIVAL-TIME C012) (LATEST-ARRIVAL-TIME COlS) (PRIORITY 001) (BULK-CARGO 200...CODES NIL)) ($F (LOAD-DESIG!ATOR RI) (ONLOAD-STATION KLFI) (OFFLOAD-STATION EGUN ) (AVAILABLE-TIME COOO) (EARLIEST-ARRIVAL-TIME COOS) (LATEST-ARRIVAL...CATEGORY-CODES NIL)) ($F (LOAD-DESIGNATOR RIS) (ONLOAD-STATION KSBD) (OFFLOAD-STATION EGUN ) (AVAILABLE-TIME COO) (EARLIEST-ARRIVAL-TIME COOS) (LATEST

Minimizing the effect of process mismatch in a neuromorphic system using spike-timing-dependent adaptation.

PubMed

Cameron, Katherine; Murray, Alan

2008-05-01

This paper investigates whether spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) can minimize the effect of mismatch within the context of a depth-from-motion algorithm. To improve noise rejection, this algorithm contains a spike prediction element, whose performance is degraded by analog very large scale integration (VLSI) mismatch. The error between the actual spike arrival time and the prediction is used as the input to an STDP circuit, to improve future predictions. Before STDP adaptation, the error reflects the degree of mismatch within the prediction circuitry. After STDP adaptation, the error indicates to what extent the adaptive circuitry can minimize the effect of transistor mismatch. The circuitry is tested with static and varying prediction times and chip results are presented. The effect of noisy spikes is also investigated. Under all conditions the STDP adaptation is shown to improve performance.

Millisecond pulsars: Timekeepers of the cosmos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaspi, Victoria M.

1995-01-01

A brief discussion on the characteristics of pulsars is given followed by a review of millisecond pulsar discoveries including the very first, PRS B1937+21, discovered in 1982. Methods of timing millisecond pulsars and the accuracy of millisecond pulsars as clocks are discussed. Possible reasons for the pulse residuals, or differences between the observed and predicted pulse arrival times for millisecond pulsars, are given.

Association of hematologic variables and castration status at the time of arrival at a research facility with the risk of bovine respiratory disease in beef calves.

PubMed

Richeson, John T; Pinedo, Pablo J; Kegley, Elizabeth B; Powell, Jeremy G; Gadberry, M Shane; Beck, Paul A; Falkenberg, Shollie M

2013-10-01

To determine the association of CBC variables and castration status at the time of arrival at a research facility with the risk of development of bovine respiratory disease (BRD). Retrospective cohort study. 1,179 crossbred beef bull (n = 588) and steer (591) calves included in 4 experiments at 2 University of Arkansas research facilities. Calves underwent processing and treatments in accordance with the experiment in which they were enrolled. Castration status and values of CBC variables were determined at the time of arrival at the facilities. Calves were monitored to detect signs of BRD during a 42-day period. The areas under the receiving operator characteristic curves for CBC variables with significant contrast test results ranged from 0.51 (neutrophil count) to 0.67 (eosinophil count), indicating they were limited predictors of BRD in calves. The only CBC variables that had significant associations with BRD in calves as determined via multivariable logistic regression analysis were eosinophil and RBC counts. The odds of BRD for bulls were 3.32 times the odds of BRD for steers. Results of this study indicated that low eosinophil and high RBC counts in blood samples may be useful for identification of calves with a high risk for development of BRD. Further research may be warranted to validate these variables for prediction of BRD in calves. Calves that were bulls at the time of arrival had a higher risk of BRD, versus calves that were steers at that time.

Depth- and range-dependent variation in the performance of aquatic telemetry systems: understanding and predicting the susceptibility of acoustic tag-receiver pairs to close proximity detection interference.

PubMed

Scherrer, Stephen R; Rideout, Brendan P; Giorli, Giacomo; Nosal, Eva-Marie; Weng, Kevin C

2018-01-01

Passive acoustic telemetry using coded transmitter tags and stationary receivers is a popular method for tracking movements of aquatic animals. Understanding the performance of these systems is important in array design and in analysis. Close proximity detection interference (CPDI) is a condition where receivers fail to reliably detect tag transmissions. CPDI generally occurs when the tag and receiver are near one another in acoustically reverberant settings. Here we confirm transmission multipaths reflected off the environment arriving at a receiver with sufficient delay relative to the direct signal cause CPDI. We propose a ray-propagation based model to estimate the arrival of energy via multipaths to predict CPDI occurrence, and we show how deeper deployments are particularly susceptible. A series of experiments were designed to develop and validate our model. Deep (300 m) and shallow (25 m) ranging experiments were conducted using Vemco V13 acoustic tags and VR2-W receivers. Probabilistic modeling of hourly detections was used to estimate the average distance a tag could be detected. A mechanistic model for predicting the arrival time of multipaths was developed using parameters from these experiments to calculate the direct and multipath path lengths. This model was retroactively applied to the previous ranging experiments to validate CPDI observations. Two additional experiments were designed to validate predictions of CPDI with respect to combinations of deployment depth and distance. Playback of recorded tags in a tank environment was used to confirm multipaths arriving after the receiver's blanking interval cause CPDI effects. Analysis of empirical data estimated the average maximum detection radius (AMDR), the farthest distance at which 95% of tag transmissions went undetected by receivers, was between 840 and 846 m for the deep ranging experiment across all factor permutations. From these results, CPDI was estimated within a 276.5 m radius of the receiver. These empirical estimations were consistent with mechanistic model predictions. CPDI affected detection at distances closer than 259-326 m from receivers. AMDR determined from the shallow ranging experiment was between 278 and 290 m with CPDI neither predicted nor observed. Results of validation experiments were consistent with mechanistic model predictions. Finally, we were able to predict detection/nondetection with 95.7% accuracy using the mechanistic model's criterion when simulating transmissions with and without multipaths. Close proximity detection interference results from combinations of depth and distance that produce reflected signals arriving after a receiver's blanking interval has ended. Deployment scenarios resulting in CPDI can be predicted with the proposed mechanistic model. For deeper deployments, sea-surface reflections can produce CPDI conditions, resulting in transmission rejection, regardless of the reflective properties of the seafloor.

Variations In Predicted Employment-related Tripmaking Caused By Alternate Systems Of Job Classification

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

The purposes of this paper are to describe how the locational patterns of jobs, and the arrival time of home-to-work trips, vary according to the system used to classify jobs. SEMCOG has obtained a special cross-tabulation of 1990 census data on work...

The ecological impact of invasive cane toads on tropical snakes: field data do not support laboratory-based predictions.

PubMed

Brown, Gregory P; Phillips, Benjamin L; Shine, Richard

2011-02-01

Predicting which species will be affected by an invasive taxon is critical to developing conservation priorities, but this is a difficult task. A previous study on the impact of invasive cane toads (Bufo marinus) on Australian snakes attempted to predict vulnerability a priori based on the assumptions that any snake species that eats frogs, and is vulnerable to toad toxins, may be at risk from the toad invasion. We used time-series analyses to evaluate the accuracy of that prediction, based on >3600 standardized nocturnal surveys over a 138-month period on 12 species of snakes and lizards on a floodplain in the Australian wet-dry tropics, bracketing the arrival of cane toads at this site. Contrary to prediction, encounter rates with most species were unaffected by toad arrival, and some taxa predicted to be vulnerable to toads increased rather than declined (e.g., death adder Acanthophis praelongus; Children's python Antaresia childreni). Indirect positive effects of toad invasion (perhaps mediated by toad-induced mortality of predatory varanid lizards) and stochastic weather events outweighed effects of toad invasion for most snake species. Our study casts doubt on the ability of a priori desktop studies, or short-term field surveys, to predict or document the ecological impact of invasive species.

Real Time Metrics and Analysis of Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharma, Shivanjli; Fergus, John

2017-01-01

To address the Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) challenge, NASA is developing and demonstrating trajectory-based departure automation under a collaborative effort with the FAA and industry known Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2). ATD-2 builds upon and integrates previous NASA research capabilities that include the Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA), the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC), and the Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSAS) capability. As trajectory-based departure scheduling and collaborative decision making tools are introduced in order to reduce delays and uncertainties in taxi and climb operations across the National Airspace System, users of the tools across a number of roles benefit from a real time system that enables common situational awareness. A real time dashboard was developed to inform and present users notifications and integrated information regarding airport surface operations. The dashboard is a supplement to capabilities and tools that incorporate arrival, departure, and surface air-traffic operations concepts in a NextGen environment. In addition to shared situational awareness, the dashboard offers the ability to compute real time metrics and analysis to inform users about capacity, predictability, and efficiency of the system as a whole. This paper describes the architecture of the real time dashboard as well as an initial proposed set of metrics. The potential impact of the real time dashboard is studied at the site identified for initial deployment and demonstration in 2017: Charlotte-Douglas International Airport (CLT). The architecture of implementing such a tool as well as potential uses are presented for operations at CLT. Metrics computed in real time illustrate the opportunity to provide common situational awareness and inform users of system delay, throughput, taxi time, and airport capacity. In addition, common awareness of delays and the impact of takeoff and departure restrictions stemming from traffic flow management initiatives are explored. The potential of the real time tool to inform users of the predictability and efficiency of using a trajectory-based departure scheduling system is also discussed.

Modeling Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Miles-in-Trail Restrictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yao; Grabbe, Shon

2013-01-01

When the demand for either a region of airspace or an airport approaches or exceeds the available capacity, miles-in-trail (MIT) restrictions are the most frequently issued traffic management initiatives (TMIs) that are used to mitigate these imbalances. Miles-intrail operations require aircraft in a traffic stream to meet a specific inter-aircraft separation in exchange for maintaining a safe and orderly flow within the stream. This stream of aircraft can be departing an airport, over a common fix, through a sector, on a specific route or arriving at an airport. This study begins by providing a high-level overview of the distribution and causes of arrival MIT restrictions for the top ten airports in the United States. This is followed by an in-depth analysis of the frequency, duration and cause of MIT restrictions impacting the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) from 2009 through 2011. Then, machine-learning methods for predicting (1) situations in which MIT restrictions for ATL arrivals are implemented under low demand scenarios, and (2) days in which a large number of MIT restrictions are required to properly manage and control ATL arrivals are presented. More specifically, these predictions were accomplished by using an ensemble of decision trees with Bootstrap aggregation (BDT) and supervised machine learning was used to train the BDT binary classification models. The models were subsequently validated using data cross validation methods. When predicting the occurrence of arrival MIT restrictions under low demand situations, the model was able to achieve over all accuracy rates ranging from 84% to 90%, with false alarm ratios ranging from 10% to 15%. In the second set of studies designed to predict days on which a high number of MIT restrictions were required, overall accuracy rates of 80% were achieved with false alarm ratios of 20%. Overall, the predictions proposed by the model give better MIT usage information than what has been currently provided under current day operations. Traffic flow managers can use these predictions to identify potential MIT restrictions to eliminate (e.g., those occurring during low arrival demand periods), and to determine the days in which a significant number of restrictions may be required

Sexual selection predicts advancement of avian spring migration in response to climate change.

PubMed

Spottiswoode, Claire N; Tøttrup, Anders P; Coppack, Timothy

2006-12-22

Global warming has led to earlier spring arrival of migratory birds, but the extent of this advancement varies greatly among species, and it remains uncertain to what degree these changes are phenotypically plastic responses or microevolutionary adaptations to changing environmental conditions. We suggest that sexual selection could help to understand this variation, since early spring arrival of males is favoured by female choice. Climate change could weaken the strength of natural selection opposing sexual selection for early migration, which would predict greatest advancement in species with stronger female choice. We test this hypothesis comparatively by investigating the degree of long-term change in spring passage at two ringing stations in northern Europe in relation to a synthetic estimate of the strength of female choice, composed of degree of extra-pair paternity, relative testes size and degree of sexually dichromatic plumage colouration. We found that species with a stronger index of sexual selection have indeed advanced their date of spring passage to a greater extent. This relationship was stronger for the changes in the median passage date of the whole population than for changes in the timing of first-arriving individuals, suggesting that selection has not only acted on protandrous males. These results suggest that sexual selection may have an impact on the responses of organisms to climate change, and knowledge of a species' mating system might help to inform attempts at predicting these.

Role of Arrival Time Difference Between Lesions and Lung Tissue on Contrast-Enhanced Sonography in the Differential Diagnosis of Subpleural Pulmonary Lesions.

PubMed

Bai, Jing; Yang, Wei; Wang, Song; Guan, Rui-Hong; Zhang, Hui; Fu, Jing-Jing; Wu, Wei; Yan, Kun

2016-07-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the diagnostic value of the arrival time difference between lesions and surrounding lung tissue on contrast-enhanced sonography of subpleural pulmonary lesions. A total of 110 patients with subpleural pulmonary lesions who underwent both conventional and contrast-enhanced sonography and had a definite diagnosis were enrolled. After contrast agent injection, the arrival times in the lesion, lung, and chest wall were recorded. The arrival time differences between various tissues were also calculated. Statistical analysis showed a significant difference in the lesion arrival time, the arrival time difference between the lesion and lung, and the arrival time difference between the chest wall and lesion (all P < .001) for benign and malignant lesions. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that the optimal diagnostic criterion was the arrival time difference between the lesion and lung, and that the best cutoff point was 2.5 seconds (later arrival signified malignancy). This new diagnostic criterion showed superior diagnostic accuracy (97.1%) compared to conventional diagnostic criteria. The individualized diagnostic method based on an arrival time comparison using contrast-enhanced sonography had high diagnostic accuracy (97.1%) with good feasibility and could provide useful diagnostic information for subpleural pulmonary lesions.

SEXTANT X-Ray Pulsar Navigation Demonstration: Initial On-Orbit Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, Jason W.; Winternitz, Luke B.; Hassouneh, Munther A.; Price, Samuel R.; Semper, Sean R.; Yu, Wayne H.; Ray, Paul S.; Wolf, Michael T.; Kerr, Matthew; Wood, Kent S.;

Acoustical Direction Finding with Time-Modulated Arrays

PubMed Central

Clark, Ben; Flint, James A.

2016-01-01

Time-Modulated Linear Arrays (TMLAs) offer useful efficiency savings over conventional phased arrays when applied in parameter estimation applications. The present paper considers the application of TMLAs to acoustic systems and proposes an algorithm for efficiently deriving the arrival angle of a signal. The proposed technique is applied in the frequency domain, where the signal and harmonic content is captured. Using a weighted average method on harmonic amplitudes and their respective main beam angles, it is possible to determine an estimate for the signal’s direction of arrival. The method is demonstrated and evaluated using results from both numerical and practical implementations and performance data is provided. The use of Micro-Electromechanical Systems (MEMS) sensors allows time-modulation techniques to be applied at ultrasonic frequencies. Theoretical predictions for an array of five isotropic elements with half-wavelength spacing and 1000 data samples suggest an accuracy of ±1∘ within an angular range of approximately ±50∘. In experiments of a 40 kHz five-element microphone array, a Direction of Arrival (DoA) estimation within ±2.5∘ of the target signal is readily achieved inside a ±45∘ range using a single switched input stage and a simple hardware setup. PMID:27973432

A Bayesian framework for infrasound location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modrak, Ryan T.; Arrowsmith, Stephen J.; Anderson, Dale N.

2010-04-01

We develop a framework for location of infrasound events using backazimuth and infrasonic arrival times from multiple arrays. Bayesian infrasonic source location (BISL) developed here estimates event location and associated credibility regions. BISL accounts for unknown source-to-array path or phase by formulating infrasonic group velocity as random. Differences between observed and predicted source-to-array traveltimes are partitioned into two additive Gaussian sources, measurement error and model error, the second of which accounts for the unknown influence of wind and temperature on path. By applying the technique to both synthetic tests and ground-truth events, we highlight the complementary nature of back azimuths and arrival times for estimating well-constrained event locations. BISL is an extension to methods developed earlier by Arrowsmith et al. that provided simple bounds on location using a grid-search technique.

Controller evaluations of the descent advisor automation aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tobias, Leonard; Volckers, Uwe; Erzberger, Heinz

1989-01-01

An automation aid to assist air traffic controllers in efficiently spacing traffic and meeting arrival times at a fix has been developed at NASA Ames Research Center. The automation aid, referred to as the descent advisor (DA), is based on accurate models of aircraft performance and weather conditions. The DA generates suggested clearances, including both top-of-descent point and speed profile data, for one or more aircraft in order to achieve specific time or distance separation objectives. The DA algorithm is interfaced with a mouse-based, menu-driven controller display that allows the air traffic controller to interactively use its accurate predictive capability to resolve conflicts and issue advisories to arrival aircraft. This paper focuses on operational issues concerning the utilization of the DA, specifically, how the DA can be used for prediction, intrail spacing, and metering. In order to evaluate the DA, a real time simulation was conducted using both current and retired controller subjects. Controllers operated in teams of two, as they do in the present environment; issues of training and team interaction will be discussed. Evaluations by controllers indicated considerable enthusiasm for the DA aid, and provided specific recommendations for using the tool effectively.

Determinants of resource needs and utilization among refugees over time.

PubMed

Wright, A Michelle; Aldhalimi, Abir; Lumley, Mark A; Jamil, Hikmet; Pole, Nnamdi; Arnetz, Judith E; Arnetz, Bengt B

2016-04-01

This study examined refugees' resource needs and utilization over time, investigated the relationships between pre-displacement/socio-demographic variables and resource needs and utilization, and explored the role of resource needs and utilization on psychiatric symptom trajectories. Iraqi refugees to the United States (N = 298) were assessed upon arrival and at 1-year intervals for 2 years for socio-demographic variables and pre-displacement trauma experiences, their need for and utilization of 14 different resources, and PTSD and depressive symptoms. Although refugees reported reduction of some needs over time (e.g., need for cash assistance declined from 99 to 71 %), other needs remained high (e.g., 99 % of refugees reported a need for health care at the 2-year interview). Generally, the lowest needs were reported after 2 years, and the highest utilization occurred during the first year post-arrival. Pre-displacement trauma exposure predicted high health care needs but not high health care utilization. Both high need for and use of health care predicted increasing PTSD and depressive symptoms. Specifically, increased use of psychological care across the three measurement waves predicted more PTSD and depression symptoms at the 2-year interview. Differences emerged between need for and actual use of resources, especially for highly trauma-exposed refugees. Resettlement agencies and assistance programs should consider the complex relationships between resource needs, resource utilization, and mental health during the early resettlement period.

Determinants of Resource Needs and Utilization Among Refugees Over Time

PubMed Central

Wright, A. Michelle; Aldhalimi, Abir; Lumley, Mark A.; Jamil, Hikmet; Pole, Nnamdi; Arnetz, Judith E.; Arnetz, Bengt B.

2015-01-01

Purpose This study examined refugees’ resource needs and utilization over time, investigated the relationships between pre-displacement/socio-demographic variables and resource needs and utilization, and explored the role of resource needs and utilization on psychiatric symptom trajectories. Methods Iraqi refugees to the United States (N=298) were assessed upon arrival and at 1-year intervals for two years for socio-demographic variables and pre-displacement trauma experiences, their need for and utilization of 14 different resources, and PTSD and depressive symptoms. Results Although refugees reported reduction of some needs over time (e.g., need for cash assistance declined from 99% to 71%), other needs remained high (e.g., 99% of refugees reported a need for health care at the 2-year interview). Generally, the lowest needs were reported after 2 years, and the highest utilization occurred during the first year post-arrival. Pre-displacement trauma exposure predicted high health care needs but not high health care utilization. Both high need for and use of health care predicted increasing PTSD and depressive symptoms. Specifically, increased use of psychological care across the three measurement waves predicted more PTSD and depression symptoms at the 2-year interview. Conclusions Differences emerged between need for and actual use of resources, especially for highly trauma-exposed refugees. Resettlement agencies and assistance programs should consider the complex relationships between resource needs, resource utilization, and mental health during the early resettlement period. PMID:26370213

Effect of Solar Wind Drag on the Determination of the Properties of Coronal Mass Ejections from Heliospheric Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lugaz, N.; Kintner, P.

2013-07-01

The Fixed-Φ (FΦ) and Harmonic Mean (HM) fitting methods are two methods to determine the "average" direction and velocity of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from time-elongation tracks produced by Heliospheric Imagers (HIs), such as the HIs onboard the STEREO spacecraft. Both methods assume a constant velocity in their descriptions of the time-elongation profiles of CMEs, which are used to fit the observed time-elongation data. Here, we analyze the effect of aerodynamic drag on CMEs propagating through interplanetary space, and how this drag affects the result of the FΦ and HM fitting methods. A simple drag model is used to analytically construct time-elongation profiles which are then fitted with the two methods. It is found that higher angles and velocities give rise to greater error in both methods, reaching errors in the direction of propagation of up to 15∘ and 30∘ for the FΦ and HM fitting methods, respectively. This is due to the physical accelerations of the CMEs being interpreted as geometrical accelerations by the fitting methods. Because of the geometrical definition of the HM fitting method, it is more affected by the acceleration than the FΦ fitting method. Overall, we find that both techniques overestimate the initial (and final) velocity and direction for fast CMEs propagating beyond 90∘ from the Sun-spacecraft line, meaning that arrival times at 1 AU would be predicted early (by up to 12 hours). We also find that the direction and arrival time of a wide and decelerating CME can be better reproduced by the FΦ due to the cancelation of two errors: neglecting the CME width and neglecting the CME deceleration. Overall, the inaccuracies of the two fitting methods are expected to play an important role in the prediction of CME hit and arrival times as we head towards solar maximum and the STEREO spacecraft further move behind the Sun.

Interactions between a Candidate Gene for Migration (ADCYAP1), Morphology and Sex Predict Spring Arrival in Blackcap Populations.

PubMed

Mettler, Raeann; Segelbacher, Gernot; Schaefer, H Martin

2015-01-01

Avian research has begun to reveal associations between candidate genes and migratory behaviors of captive birds, yet few studies utilize genotypic, morphometric, and phenological data from wild individuals. Previous studies have identified an association between ADCYAP1 polymorphism and autumn migratory behavior (restlessness, or zugunruhe), but little is known about the relationship between ADCYAP1 and spring migratory behavior. The timing of spring migration and arrival to the breeding ground are phenological traits which could be particularly favorable for establishing territories and acquiring mates, thus important to fitness and reproductive success. Here, we investigated how individual genotypic ADCYAP1 variation and phenotypic variation (wing length and shape) of blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) affect spring arrival date across nine natural populations in Europe. We hypothesized that longer alleles should be associated with earlier spring arrival dates and expected the effect on arrival date to be stronger for males as they arrive earlier. However, we found that longer wings were associated with earlier spring arrival to the breeding grounds for females, but not for males. Another female-specific effect indicated an interaction between ADCYAP1 allele size and wing pointedness on the response of spring arrival: greater allele size had a positive effect on spring arrival date for females with rounder wings, while a negative effect was apparent for females with more pointed wings. Also, female heterozygotes with pointed wing tips arrived significantly earlier than both homozygotes with pointed wings and heterozygotes with round wings. Stable isotope ratios (δ2H) of a subset of blackcaps captured in Freiburg in 2011 allowed us also to assign individuals to their main overwintering areas in northwest (NW) and southwest (SW) Europe. NW males arrived significantly earlier to the Freiburg breeding site than both SW males and females in 2011. NW females had more pointed wing tips compared to SW females, but no difference in ADCYAP1 allele size was found between the different migration routes.

Design and Testing of a Low Noise Flight Guidance Concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, David H.; Oseguera-Lohr, Rosa M.; Lewis, Elliot T.

2004-01-01

A flight guidance concept was developed to assist in flying continuous descent approach (CDA) procedures designed to lower the noise under the flight path of jet transport aircraft during arrival operations at an airport. The guidance consists of a trajectory prediction algorithm that was tuned to produce a high-efficiency, low noise flight profile with accompanying autopilot and flight display elements needed by the flight control system and pilot to fly the approach. A key component of the flight guidance was a real-time display of energy error relative to the predicted flight path. The guidance was integrated with the conventional Flight Management System (FMS) guidance of a modern jet transport airplane and tested in a high fidelity flight simulation. A charted arrival procedure, which allowed flying conventional arrivals, CDA arrivals with standard guidance, and CDA arrivals with the new low noise guidance, was developed to assist in the testing and evaluation of the low noise guidance concept. Results of the simulation testing showed the low noise guidance was easy to use by airline pilot test subjects and effective in achieving the desired noise reduction. Noise under the flight path was reduced by at least 2 decibels in Sound Exposure Level (SEL) at distances from about 3 nautical miles out to about 17.5 nautical miles from the runway, with a peak reduction of 8.5 decibels at about 10.5 nautical miles. Fuel consumption was also reduced by about 17% for the LNG conditions compared to baseline runs for the same flight distance. Pilot acceptance and understanding of the guidance was quite high with favorable comments and ratings received from all test subjects.

Electrochemical models for the discharge characteristics of the nickel cadmium cell

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spritzer, M. S.

1981-01-01

The potential time characteristics of a preconditioned fully charged cell discharge at constant current was studied. Electrochemical principles applied to the sealed nickel cadmium cell and its behavior and to predict operating characteristics were described. A thermodynamic approach to arrive at several related but different equations and its discharge are reported.

Pipe wall damage detection by electromagnetic acoustic transducer generated guided waves in absence of defect signals.

PubMed

Vasiljevic, Milos; Kundu, Tribikram; Grill, Wolfgang; Twerdowski, Evgeny

2008-05-01

Most investigators emphasize the importance of detecting the reflected signal from the defect to determine if the pipe wall has any damage and to predict the damage location. However, often the small signal from the defect is hidden behind the other arriving wave modes and signal noise. To overcome the difficulties associated with the identification of the small defect signal in the time history plots, in this paper the time history is analyzed well after the arrival of the first defect signal, and after different wave modes have propagated multiple times through the pipe. It is shown that the defective pipe can be clearly identified by analyzing these late arriving diffuse ultrasonic signals. Multiple reflections and scattering of the propagating wave modes by the defect and pipe ends do not hamper the defect detection capability; on the contrary, it apparently stabilizes the signal and makes it easier to distinguish the defective pipe from the defect-free pipe. This paper also highlights difficulties associated with the interpretation of the recorded time histories due to mode conversion by the defect. The design of electro-magnetic acoustic transducers used to generate and receive the guided waves in the pipe is briefly described in the paper.

Arrival Time Tracking of Partially Resolved Acoustic Rays with Application to Ocean Acoustic Tomography

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-03-01

ocean acoustic tomography. A straightforward method of arrival time estimation, based on locating the maximum value of an interpolated arrival, was...used with limited success for analysis of data from the December 1988 Monterey Bay Tomography Experiment. Close examination of the data revealed multiple...estimation of arrival times along an ocean acoustic ray path is an important component of ocean acoustic tomography. A straightforward method of arrival time

Energetic Physiology Mediates Individual Optimization of Breeding Phenology in a Migratory Arctic Seabird.

PubMed

Hennin, Holly L; Bêty, Jöel; Legagneux, Pierre; Gilchrist, H Grant; Williams, Tony D; Love, Oliver P

2016-10-01

The influence of variation in individual state on key reproductive decisions impacting fitness is well appreciated in evolutionary ecology. Rowe et al. (1994) developed a condition-dependent individual optimization model predicting that three key factors impact the ability of migratory female birds to individually optimize breeding phenology to maximize fitness in seasonal environments: arrival condition, arrival date, and ability to gain in condition on the breeding grounds. While empirical studies have confirmed that greater arrival body mass and earlier arrival dates result in earlier laying, no study has assessed whether individual variation in energetic management of condition gain effects this key fitness-related decision. Using an 8-year data set from over 350 prebreeding female Arctic common eiders (Somateria mollissima), we tested this component of the model by examining whether individual variation in two physiological traits influencing energetic management (plasma triglycerides: physiological fattening rate; baseline corticosterone: energetic demand) predicted individual variation in breeding phenology after controlling for arrival date and body mass. As predicted by the optimization model, individuals with higher fattening rates and lower energetic demand had the earliest breeding phenology (shortest delays between arrival and laying; earliest laying dates). Our results are the first to empirically determine that individual flexibility in prebreeding energetic management influences key fitness-related reproductive decisions, suggesting that individuals have the capacity to optimally manage reproductive investment.

Time delay in Swiss cheese gravitational lensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, B.; Kantowski, R.; Dai, X.

2010-08-01

We compute time delays for gravitational lensing in a flat Λ dominated cold dark matter Swiss cheese universe. We assume a primary and secondary pair of light rays are deflected by a single point mass condensation described by a Kottler metric (Schwarzschild with Λ) embedded in an otherwise homogeneous cosmology. We find that the cosmological constant’s effect on the difference in arrival times is nonlinear and at most around 0.002% for a large cluster lens; however, we find differences from time delays predicted by conventional linear lensing theory that can reach ˜4% for these large lenses. The differences in predicted delay times are due to the failure of conventional lensing to incorporate the lensing mass into the mean mass density of the universe.

Linking express saccade occurance to stimulus properties and sensorimotor integration in the superior colliculus.

PubMed

Marino, Robert A; Levy, Ron; Munoz, Douglas P

2015-08-01

Express saccades represent the fastest possible eye movements to visual targets with reaction times that approach minimum sensory-motor conduction delays. Previous work in monkeys has identified two specific neural signals in the superior colliculus (SC: a midbrain sensorimotor integration structure involved in gaze control) that are required to execute express saccades: 1) previsual activity consisting of a low-frequency increase in action potentials in sensory-motor neurons immediately before the arrival of a visual response; and 2) a transient visual-sensory response consisting of a high-frequency burst of action potentials in visually responsive neurons resulting from the appearance of a visual target stimulus. To better understand how these two neural signals interact to produce express saccades, we manipulated the arrival time and magnitude of visual responses in the SC by altering target luminance and we examined the corresponding influences on SC activity and express saccade generation. We recorded from saccade neurons with visual-, motor-, and previsual-related activity in the SC of monkeys performing the gap saccade task while target luminance was systematically varied between 0.001 and 42.5 cd/m(2) against a black background (∼0.0001 cd/m(2)). Our results demonstrated that 1) express saccade latencies were linked directly to the arrival time in the SC of visual responses produced by abruptly appearing visual stimuli; 2) express saccades were generated toward both dim and bright targets whenever sufficient previsual activity was present; and 3) target luminance altered the likelihood of producing an express saccade. When an express saccade was generated, visuomotor neurons increased their activity immediately before the arrival of the visual response in the SC and saccade initiation. Furthermore, the visual and motor responses of visuomotor neurons merged into a single burst of action potentials, while the visual response of visual-only neurons was unaffected. A linear combination model was used to test which SC signals best predicted the likelihood of producing an express saccade. In addition to visual response magnitude and previsual activity of saccade neurons, the model identified presaccadic activity (activity occurring during the 30-ms epoch immediately before saccade initiation) as a third important signal for predicting express saccades. We conclude that express saccades can be predicted by visual, previsual, and presaccadic signals recorded from visuomotor neurons in the intermediate layers of the SC. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Linking express saccade occurance to stimulus properties and sensorimotor integration in the superior colliculus

PubMed Central

Levy, Ron; Munoz, Douglas P.

2015-01-01

Express saccades represent the fastest possible eye movements to visual targets with reaction times that approach minimum sensory-motor conduction delays. Previous work in monkeys has identified two specific neural signals in the superior colliculus (SC: a midbrain sensorimotor integration structure involved in gaze control) that are required to execute express saccades: 1) previsual activity consisting of a low-frequency increase in action potentials in sensory-motor neurons immediately before the arrival of a visual response; and 2) a transient visual-sensory response consisting of a high-frequency burst of action potentials in visually responsive neurons resulting from the appearance of a visual target stimulus. To better understand how these two neural signals interact to produce express saccades, we manipulated the arrival time and magnitude of visual responses in the SC by altering target luminance and we examined the corresponding influences on SC activity and express saccade generation. We recorded from saccade neurons with visual-, motor-, and previsual-related activity in the SC of monkeys performing the gap saccade task while target luminance was systematically varied between 0.001 and 42.5 cd/m2 against a black background (∼0.0001 cd/m2). Our results demonstrated that 1) express saccade latencies were linked directly to the arrival time in the SC of visual responses produced by abruptly appearing visual stimuli; 2) express saccades were generated toward both dim and bright targets whenever sufficient previsual activity was present; and 3) target luminance altered the likelihood of producing an express saccade. When an express saccade was generated, visuomotor neurons increased their activity immediately before the arrival of the visual response in the SC and saccade initiation. Furthermore, the visual and motor responses of visuomotor neurons merged into a single burst of action potentials, while the visual response of visual-only neurons was unaffected. A linear combination model was used to test which SC signals best predicted the likelihood of producing an express saccade. In addition to visual response magnitude and previsual activity of saccade neurons, the model identified presaccadic activity (activity occurring during the 30-ms epoch immediately before saccade initiation) as a third important signal for predicting express saccades. We conclude that express saccades can be predicted by visual, previsual, and presaccadic signals recorded from visuomotor neurons in the intermediate layers of the SC. PMID:26063770

Real Time Metrics and Analysis of Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharma, Shivanjli; Fergus, John

2017-01-01

A real time dashboard was developed in order to inform and present users notifications and integrated information regarding airport surface operations. The dashboard is a supplement to capabilities and tools that incorporate arrival, departure, and surface air-traffic operations concepts in a NextGen environment. As trajectory-based departure scheduling and collaborative decision making tools are introduced in order to reduce delays and uncertainties in taxi and climb operations across the National Airspace System, users across a number of roles benefit from a real time system that enables common situational awareness. In addition to shared situational awareness the dashboard offers the ability to compute real time metrics and analysis to inform users about capacity, predictability, and efficiency of the system as a whole. This paper describes the architecture of the real time dashboard as well as an initial set of metrics computed on operational data. The potential impact of the real time dashboard is studied at the site identified for initial deployment and demonstration in 2017; Charlotte-Douglas International Airport. Analysis and metrics computed in real time illustrate the opportunity to provide common situational awareness and inform users of metrics across delay, throughput, taxi time, and airport capacity. In addition, common awareness of delays and the impact of takeoff and departure restrictions stemming from traffic flow management initiatives are explored. The potential of the real time tool to inform the predictability and efficiency of using a trajectory-based departure scheduling system is also discussed.

Predicting Operator Execution Times Using CogTool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santiago-Espada, Yamira; Latorella, Kara A.

2013-01-01

Researchers and developers of NextGen systems can use predictive human performance modeling tools as an initial approach to obtain skilled user performance times analytically, before system testing with users. This paper describes the CogTool models for a two pilot crew executing two different types of a datalink clearance acceptance tasks, and on two different simulation platforms. The CogTool time estimates for accepting and executing Required Time of Arrival and Interval Management clearances were compared to empirical data observed in video tapes and registered in simulation files. Results indicate no statistically significant difference between empirical data and the CogTool predictions. A population comparison test found no significant differences between the CogTool estimates and the empirical execution times for any of the four test conditions. We discuss modeling caveats and considerations for applying CogTool to crew performance modeling in advanced cockpit environments.

Deep seafloor arrivals: an unexplained set of arrivals in long-range ocean acoustic propagation.

PubMed

Stephen, Ralph A; Bolmer, S Thompson; Dzieciuch, Matthew A; Worcester, Peter F; Andrew, Rex K; Buck, Linda J; Mercer, James A; Colosi, John A; Howe, Bruce M

2009-08-01

Receptions, from a ship-suspended source (in the band 50-100 Hz) to an ocean bottom seismometer (about 5000 m depth) and the deepest element on a vertical hydrophone array (about 750 m above the seafloor) that were acquired on the 2004 Long-Range Ocean Acoustic Propagation Experiment in the North Pacific Ocean, are described. The ranges varied from 50 to 3200 km. In addition to predicted ocean acoustic arrivals and deep shadow zone arrivals (leaking below turning points), "deep seafloor arrivals," that are dominant on the seafloor geophone but are absent or very weak on the hydrophone array, are observed. These deep seafloor arrivals are an unexplained set of arrivals in ocean acoustics possibly associated with seafloor interface waves.

Seasonal variations of infrasonic arrivals from long-term ground truth observations in Nevada and implication for event location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Negraru, Petru; Golden, Paul

2017-04-01

Long-term ground truth observations were collected at two infrasound arrays in Nevada to investigate how seasonal atmospheric variations affect the detection, traveltime and signal characteristics (azimuth, trace velocity, frequency content and amplitudes) of infrasonic arrivals at regional distances. The arrays were located in different azimuthal directions from a munition disposal facility in Nevada. FNIAR, located 154 km north of the source has a high detection rate throughout the year. Over 90 per cent of the detonations have traveltimes indicative of stratospheric arrivals, while tropospheric waveguides are observed from only 27 per cent of the detonations. The second array, DNIAR, located 293 km southeast of the source exhibits strong seasonal variations with high stratospheric detection rates in winter and the virtual absence of stratospheric arrivals in summer. Tropospheric waveguides and thermospheric arrivals are also observed for DNIAR. Modeling through the Naval Research Laboratory Ground to Space atmospheric sound speeds leads to mixed results: FNIAR arrivals are usually not predicted to be present at all (either stratospheric or tropospheric), while DNIAR arrivals are usually correctly predicted, but summer arrivals show a consistent traveltime bias. In the end, we show the possible improvement in location using empirically calibrated traveltime and azimuth observations. Using the Bayesian Infrasound Source Localization we show that we can decrease the area enclosed by the 90 per cent credibility contours by a factor of 2.5.

Global Acceleration of Coronal Mass Ejections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Nat; Lara, Alejandro; Lepping, Ronald; Kaiser, Michael; Berdichevsky, Daniel; St. Cyr, O. Chris; Lazarus, Al

1999-01-01

Using the observed relation between speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) near the Sun and in the solar wind, we estimate a global acceleration acting on the CMEs. Our study quantifies the qualitative results of Gosling [1997] and numerical simulations that CMEs at 1 AU with speeds closer to the solar wind. We found a linear relation between the global acceleration and the initial speed of the CMEs and the absolute value of the acceleration is similar to the slow solar wind acceleration. Our study naturally divides CMEs into fast and slow ones, the dividing line being the solar wind speed. Our results have important implications to space weather prediction models which need to incorporate this effect in estimating the CME arrival time at 1 AU. We show that the arrival times of CMEs at 1 AU are drastically different from the zero acceleration case.

Results on three predictions for July 2012 federal elections in Mexico based on past regularities.

PubMed

Hernández-Saldaña, H

2013-01-01

The Presidential Election in Mexico of July 2012 has been the third time that PREP, Previous Electoral Results Program works. PREP gives voting outcomes based in electoral certificates of each polling station that arrive to capture centers. In previous ones, some statistical regularities had been observed, three of them were selected to make predictions and were published in arXiv:1207.0078 [physics.soc-ph]. Using the database made public in July 2012, two of the predictions were completely fulfilled, while, the third one was measured and confirmed using the database obtained upon request to the electoral authorities. The first two predictions confirmed by actual measures are: (ii) The Partido Revolucionario Institucional, PRI, is a sprinter and has a better performance in polling stations arriving late to capture centers during the process. (iii) Distribution of vote of this party is well described by a smooth function named a Daisy model. A Gamma distribution, but compatible with a Daisy model, fits the distribution as well. The third prediction confirms that errare humanum est, since the error distributions of all the self-consistency variables appeared as a central power law with lateral lobes as in 2000 and 2006 electoral processes. The three measured regularities appeared no matter the political environment.

Results on Three Predictions for July 2012 Federal Elections in Mexico Based on Past Regularities

PubMed Central

Hernández-Saldaña, H.

2013-01-01

The Presidential Election in Mexico of July 2012 has been the third time that PREP, Previous Electoral Results Program works. PREP gives voting outcomes based in electoral certificates of each polling station that arrive to capture centers. In previous ones, some statistical regularities had been observed, three of them were selected to make predictions and were published in arXiv:1207.0078 [physics.soc-ph]. Using the database made public in July 2012, two of the predictions were completely fulfilled, while, the third one was measured and confirmed using the database obtained upon request to the electoral authorities. The first two predictions confirmed by actual measures are: (ii) The Partido Revolucionario Institucional, PRI, is a sprinter and has a better performance in polling stations arriving late to capture centers during the process. (iii) Distribution of vote of this party is well described by a smooth function named a Daisy model. A Gamma distribution, but compatible with a Daisy model, fits the distribution as well. The third prediction confirms that errare humanum est, since the error distributions of all the self-consistency variables appeared as a central power law with lateral lobes as in 2000 and 2006 electoral processes. The three measured regularities appeared no matter the political environment. PMID:24386103

Stock-specific migration timing of adult spring-summer Chinook salmon in the Columbia River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keefer, M.L.; Peery, C.A.; Jepson, M.A.; Tolotti, K.R.; Bjornn, T.C.; Stuehrenberg, L.C.

2004-01-01

An understanding of the migration timing patterns of Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and steelhead O. mykiss is important for managing complex mixed-stock fisheries and preserving genetic and life history diversity. We examined adult return timing for 3,317 radio-tagged fish from 38 stocks of Columbia River basin spring-summer Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha over 5 years. Stock composition varied widely within and between years depending on the strength of influential populations. Most individual stocks migrated at similar times each year relative to overall runs, supporting the hypotheses that run timing is predictable, is at least partially due to genetic adaptation, and can be used to differentiate between some conspecific populations. Arrival timing of both aggregated radio-tagged stocks and annual runs was strongly correlated with river discharge; stocks arrived earlier at Bonneville Dam and at upstream dams in years with low discharge. Migration timing analyses identified many between-stock and between-year differences in anadromous salmonid return behavior and should and managers interested in protection and recovery of evolutionary significant populations.

X-Ray Detection and Processing Models for Spacecraft Navigation and Timing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheikh, Suneel; Hanson, John

2013-01-01

The current primary method of deepspace navigation is the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN). High-performance navigation is achieved using Delta Differential One-Way Range techniques that utilize simultaneous observations from multiple DSN sites, and incorporate observations of quasars near the line-of-sight to a spacecraft in order to improve the range and angle measurement accuracies. Over the past four decades, x-ray astronomers have identified a number of xray pulsars with pulsed emissions having stabilities comparable to atomic clocks. The x-ray pulsar-based navigation and time determination (XNAV) system uses phase measurements from these sources to establish autonomously the position of the detector, and thus the spacecraft, relative to a known reference frame, much as the Global Positioning System (GPS) uses phase measurements from radio signals from several satellites to establish the position of the user relative to an Earth-centered fixed frame of reference. While a GPS receiver uses an antenna to detect the radio signals, XNAV uses a detector array to capture the individual xray photons from the x-ray pulsars. The navigation solution relies on detailed xray source models, signal processing, navigation and timing algorithms, and analytical tools that form the basis of an autonomous XNAV system. Through previous XNAV development efforts, some techniques have been established to utilize a pulsar pulse time-of-arrival (TOA) measurement to correct a position estimate. One well-studied approach, based upon Kalman filter methods, optimally adjusts a dynamic orbit propagation solution based upon the offset in measured and predicted pulse TOA. In this delta position estimator scheme, previously estimated values of spacecraft position and velocity are utilized from an onboard orbit propagator. Using these estimated values, the detected arrival times at the spacecraft of pulses from a pulsar are compared to the predicted arrival times defined by the pulsar s pulse timing model. A discrepancy provides an estimate of the spacecraft position offset, since an error in position will relate to the measured time offset of a pulse along the line of sight to the pulsar. XNAV researchers have been developing additional enhanced approaches to process the photon TOAs to arrive at an estimate of spacecraft position, including those using maximum-likelihood estimation, digital phase locked loops, and "single photon processing" schemes that utilize all available time data associated with each photon. Using pulsars from separate, non-coplanar locations provides range and range-rate measurements in each pulsar s direction. Combining these different pulsar measurements solves for offsets in position and velocity in three dimensions, and provides accurate overall navigation for deep space vehicles.

Calculating shock arrival in expansion tubes and shock tunnels using Bayesian changepoint analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, Christopher M.; Bourke, Emily J.; Gildfind, David E.

2018-06-01

To understand the flow conditions generated in expansion tubes and shock tunnels, shock speeds are generally calculated based on shock arrival times at high-frequency wall-mounted pressure transducers. These calculations require that the shock arrival times are obtained accurately. This can be non-trivial for expansion tubes especially because pressure rises may be small and shock speeds high. Inaccurate shock arrival times can be a significant source of uncertainty. To help address this problem, this paper investigates two separate but complimentary techniques. Principally, it proposes using a Bayesian changepoint detection method to automatically calculate shock arrival, potentially reducing error and simplifying the shock arrival finding process. To compliment this, a technique for filtering the raw data without losing the shock arrival time is also presented and investigated. To test the validity of the proposed techniques, tests are performed using both a theoretical step change with different levels of noise and real experimental data. It was found that with conditions added to ensure that a real shock arrival time was found, the Bayesian changepoint analysis method was able to automatically find the shock arrival time, even for noisy signals.

An ESS treatment of the pattern of female arrival at the mating site in the yellow dung fly scathophaga stercoraria (L.)

PubMed

Reuter; Ward; Blanckenhorn

1998-12-07

In most previous work on the yellow dung fly Scathophaga stercoraria (L.), as on other species, adaptive explanations have been sought for male behaviour whereas female behaviour has not been examined in similar detail. Here, the arrival of females at the mating site, fresh cattle droppings, is investigated. While almost all males are present shortly after pat deposition females arrive at a low, decreasing rate over an interval of about 5 hours. We propose that the distribution of female arrival times represents a mixed Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS), formed by different trade-offs between costs and benefits of early and late arrival. Early arrival could be favoured by advantages due to better conditions for oviposition, faster egg development of reduced larval competition. Late arrival could be favoured by negative effects on females of male-male competition being weaker later after deposition. Computer simulations with distributions of arrival times deviating from the natural one were performed to "measure" the costs for females arriving at different times. These costs were compared with estimated benefits corresponding to the females' arrival times. This procedure revealed that females coming to the pat later in a population of females arriving shortly after deposition would be favoured. In a population arriving according to a uniform distribution, early females would have fitness advantages. Thus, evolution should lead to an intermediate distribution of arrival times, as in nature, i.e. female arrival behaviour is probably adaptive. The simulations also revealed that the intensity of sexual selection though male-male competition is highest with the natural pattern of female arrival. Therefore, natural selection generating this pattern amplifies the intensity of male-male interaction as a by-product. Copyright 1998 Academic Press

Experiment Description and Results for Arrival Operations Using Interval Management with Spacing to Parallel Dependent Runways (IMSPiDR)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baxley, Brian T.; Murdoch, Jennifer L.; Swieringa, Kurt A.; Barmore, Bryan E.; Capron, William R.; Hubbs, Clay E.; Shay, Richard F.; Abbott, Terence S.

2013-01-01

The predicted increase in the number of commercial aircraft operations creates a need for improved operational efficiency. Two areas believed to offer increases in aircraft efficiency are optimized profile descents and dependent parallel runway operations. Using Flight deck Interval Management (FIM) software and procedures during these operations, flight crews can achieve by the runway threshold an interval assigned by air traffic control (ATC) behind the preceding aircraft that maximizes runway throughput while minimizing additional fuel consumption and pilot workload. This document describes an experiment where 24 pilots flew arrivals into the Dallas Fort-Worth terminal environment using one of three simulators at NASA?s Langley Research Center. Results indicate that pilots delivered their aircraft to the runway threshold within +/- 3.5 seconds of their assigned time interval, and reported low workload levels. In general, pilots found the FIM concept, procedures, speeds, and interface acceptable. Analysis of the time error and FIM speed changes as a function of arrival stream position suggest the spacing algorithm generates stable behavior while in the presence of continuous (wind) or impulse (offset) error. Concerns reported included multiple speed changes within a short time period, and an airspeed increase followed shortly by an airspeed decrease.

41 CFR 301-11.10 - Am I required to record departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim? 301-11.10 Section 301-11.10 Public Contracts and... dates and times on my travel claim? You must record the date of departure from, and arrival at, the... visited. You do not have to record departure/arrival times, but you must annotate your travel claim when...

41 CFR 301-11.10 - Am I required to record departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim? 301-11.10 Section 301-11.10 Public Contracts and... dates and times on my travel claim? You must record the date of departure from, and arrival at, the... visited. You do not have to record departure/arrival times, but you must annotate your travel claim when...

41 CFR 301-11.10 - Am I required to record departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim? 301-11.10 Section 301-11.10 Public Contracts and... dates and times on my travel claim? You must record the date of departure from, and arrival at, the... visited. You do not have to record departure/arrival times, but you must annotate your travel claim when...

41 CFR 301-11.10 - Am I required to record departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim? 301-11.10 Section 301-11.10 Public Contracts and... dates and times on my travel claim? You must record the date of departure from, and arrival at, the... visited. You do not have to record departure/arrival times, but you must annotate your travel claim when...

41 CFR 301-11.10 - Am I required to record departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim? 301-11.10 Section 301-11.10 Public Contracts and... dates and times on my travel claim? You must record the date of departure from, and arrival at, the... visited. You do not have to record departure/arrival times, but you must annotate your travel claim when...

The Significance of the Influence of the CME Deflection in Interplanetary Space on the CME Arrival at Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Bin; Wang, Yuming; Shen, Chenglong; Liu, Siqing; Wang, Jingjing; Pan, Zonghao; Li, Huimin; Liu, Rui

2017-08-01

As one of the most violent astrophysical phenomena, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have strong potential space weather effects. However, not all Earth-directed CMEs encounter the Earth and produce geo-effects. One reason is the deflected propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space. Although there have been several case studies clearly showing such deflections, it has not yet been statistically assessed how significantly the deflected propagation would influence the CME’s arrival at Earth. We develop an integrated CME-arrival forecasting (iCAF) system, assembling the modules of CME detection, three-dimensional (3D) parameter derivation, and trajectory reconstruction to predict whether or not a CME arrives at Earth, and we assess the deflection influence on the CME-arrival forecasting. The performance of iCAF is tested by comparing the two-dimensional (2D) parameters with those in the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW) Data Center catalog, comparing the 3D parameters with those of the gradual cylindrical shell model, and estimating the success rate of the CME Earth-arrival predictions. It is found that the 2D parameters provided by iCAF and the CDAW catalog are consistent with each other, and the 3D parameters derived by the ice cream cone model based on single-view observations are acceptable. The success rate of the CME-arrival predictions by iCAF with deflection considered is about 82%, which is 19% higher than that without deflection, indicating the importance of the CME deflection for providing a reliable forecasting. Furthermore, iCAF is a worthwhile project since it is a completely automatic system with deflection taken into account.

Operational Concept for Flight Crews to Participate in Merging and Spacing of Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baxley, Brian T.; Barmore, Bryan E.; Abbott, Terence S.; Capron, William R.

2006-01-01

The predicted tripling of air traffic within the next 15 years is expected to cause significant aircraft delays and create a major financial burden for the airline industry unless the capacity of the National Airspace System can be increased. One approach to improve throughput and reduce delay is to develop new ground tools, airborne tools, and procedures to reduce the variance of aircraft delivery to the airport, thereby providing an increase in runway throughput capacity and a reduction in arrival aircraft delay. The first phase of the Merging and Spacing Concept employs a ground based tool used by Air Traffic Control that creates an arrival time to the runway threshold based on the aircraft s current position and speed, then makes minor adjustments to that schedule to accommodate runway throughput constraints such as weather and wake vortex separation criteria. The Merging and Spacing Concept also employs arrival routing that begins at an en route metering fix at altitude and continues to the runway threshold with defined lateral, vertical, and velocity criteria. This allows the desired spacing interval between aircraft at the runway to be translated back in time and space to the metering fix. The tool then calculates a specific speed for each aircraft to fly while enroute to the metering fix based on the adjusted land timing for that aircraft. This speed is data-linked to the crew who fly this speed, causing the aircraft to arrive at the metering fix with the assigned spacing interval behind the previous aircraft in the landing sequence. The second phase of the Merging and Spacing Concept increases the timing precision of the aircraft delivery to the runway threshold by having flight crews using an airborne system make minor speed changes during enroute, descent, and arrival phases of flight. These speed changes are based on broadcast aircraft state data to determine the difference between the actual and assigned time interval between the aircraft pair. The airborne software then calculates a speed adjustment to null that difference over the remaining flight trajectory. Follow-on phases still under development will expand the concept to all types of aircraft, arriving from any direction, merging at different fixes and altitudes, and to any airport. This paper describes the implementation phases of the Merging and Spacing Concept, and provides high-level results of research conducted to date.

Automatic Train Operation Using Autonomic Prediction of Train Runs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asuka, Masashi; Kataoka, Kenji; Komaya, Kiyotoshi; Nishida, Syogo

In this paper, we present an automatic train control method adaptable to disturbed train traffic conditions. The proposed method presumes transmission of detected time of a home track clearance to trains approaching to the station by employing equipment of Digital ATC (Automatic Train Control). Using the information, each train controls its acceleration by the method that consists of two approaches. First, by setting a designated restricted speed, the train controls its running time to arrive at the next station in accordance with predicted delay. Second, the train predicts the time at which it will reach the current braking pattern generated by Digital ATC, along with the time when the braking pattern transits ahead. By comparing them, the train correctly chooses the coasting drive mode in advance to avoid deceleration due to the current braking pattern. We evaluated the effectiveness of the proposed method regarding driving conditions, energy consumption and reduction of delays by simulation.

Predicting the magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections arriving at Earth: 1. Initial architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savani, N. P.; Vourlidas, A.; Szabo, A.; Mays, M. L.; Richardson, I. G.; Thompson, B. J.; Pulkkinen, A.; Evans, R.; Nieves-Chinchilla, T.

2015-06-01

The process by which the Sun affects the terrestrial environment on short timescales is predominately driven by the amount of magnetic reconnection between the solar wind and Earth's magnetosphere. Reconnection occurs most efficiently when the solar wind magnetic field has a southward component. The most severe impacts are during the arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) when the magnetosphere is both compressed and magnetically connected to the heliospheric environment. Unfortunately, forecasting magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections remain elusive. Here we report how, by combining a statistically robust helicity rule for a CME's solar origin with a simplified flux rope topology, the magnetic vectors within the Earth-directed segment of a CME can be predicted. In order to test the validity of this proof-of-concept architecture for estimating the magnetic vectors within CMEs, a total of eight CME events (between 2010 and 2014) have been investigated. With a focus on the large false alarm of January 2014, this work highlights the importance of including the early evolutionary effects of a CME for forecasting purposes. The angular rotation in the predicted magnetic field closely follows the broad rotational structure seen within the in situ data. This time-varying field estimate is implemented into a process to quantitatively predict a time-varying Kp index that is described in detail in paper II. Future statistical work, quantifying the uncertainties in this process, may improve the more heuristic approach used by early forecasting systems.

Improving arrival time identification in transient elastography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Jens; McLaughlin, Joyce; Renzi, Daniel

2012-04-01

In this paper, we improve the first step in the arrival time algorithm used for shear wave speed recovery in transient elastography. In transient elastography, a shear wave is initiated at the boundary and the interior displacement of the propagating shear wave is imaged with an ultrasound ultra-fast imaging system. The first step in the arrival time algorithm finds the arrival times of the shear wave by cross correlating displacement time traces (the time history of the displacement at a single point) with a reference time trace located near the shear wave source. The second step finds the shear wave speed from the arrival times. In performing the first step, we observe that the wave pulse decorrelates as it travels through the medium, which leads to inaccurate estimates of the arrival times and ultimately to blurring and artifacts in the shear wave speed image. In particular, wave ‘spreading’ accounts for much of this decorrelation. Here we remove most of the decorrelation by allowing the reference wave pulse to spread during the cross correlation. This dramatically improves the images obtained from arrival time identification. We illustrate the improvement of this method on phantom and in vivo data obtained from the laboratory of Mathias Fink at ESPCI, Paris.

Identifying Key Issues and Potential Solutions for Integrated Arrival, Departure, Surface Operations by Surveying Stakeholder Preferences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aponso, Bimal; Coppenbarger, Richard A.; Jung, Yoon; Quon, Leighton; Lohr, Gary; O’Connor, Neil; Engelland, Shawn

2015-01-01

NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) collaborates with the FAA and industry to provide concepts and technologies that enhance the transition to the next-generation air-traffic management system (NextGen). To facilitate this collaboration, ARMD has a series of Airspace Technology Demonstration (ATD) sub-projects that develop, demonstrate, and transitions NASA technologies and concepts for implementation in the National Airspace System (NAS). The second of these sub-projects, ATD-2, is focused on the potential benefits to NAS stakeholders of integrated arrival, departure, surface (IADS) operations. To determine the project objectives and assess the benefits of a potential solution, NASA surveyed NAS stakeholders to understand the existing issues in arrival, departure, and surface operations, and the perceived benefits of better integrating these operations. NASA surveyed a broad cross-section of stakeholders representing the airlines, airports, air-navigation service providers, and industry providers of NAS tools. The survey indicated that improving the predictability of flight times (schedules) could improve efficiency in arrival, departure, and surface operations. Stakeholders also mentioned the need for better strategic and tactical information on traffic constraints as well as better information sharing and a coupled collaborative planning process that allows stakeholders to coordinate IADS operations. To assess the impact of a potential solution, NASA sketched an initial departure scheduling concept and assessed its viability by surveying a select group of stakeholders for a second time. The objective of the departure scheduler was to enable flights to move continuously from gate to cruise with minimal interruption in a busy metroplex airspace environment using strategic and tactical scheduling enhanced by collaborative planning between airlines and service providers. The stakeholders agreed that this departure concept could improve schedule predictability and suggested several key attributes that were necessary to make the concept successful. The goals and objectives of the planned ATD-2 sub-project will incorporate the results of this stakeholder feedback.

Model for predicting the injury severity score.

PubMed

Hagiwara, Shuichi; Oshima, Kiyohiro; Murata, Masato; Kaneko, Minoru; Aoki, Makoto; Kanbe, Masahiko; Nakamura, Takuro; Ohyama, Yoshio; Tamura, Jun'ichi

2015-07-01

To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score from parameters that are obtained in the emergency department at arrival. We reviewed the medical records of trauma patients who were transferred to the emergency department of Gunma University Hospital between January 2010 and December 2010. The injury severity score, age, mean blood pressure, heart rate, Glasgow coma scale, hemoglobin, hematocrit, red blood cell count, platelet count, fibrinogen, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, and fibrin degradation products, were examined in those patients on arrival. To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score, multiple linear regression analysis was carried out. The injury severity score was set as the dependent variable, and the other parameters were set as candidate objective variables. IBM spss Statistics 20 was used for the statistical analysis. Statistical significance was set at P  < 0.05. To select objective variables, the stepwise method was used. A total of 122 patients were included in this study. The formula for predicting the injury severity score (ISS) was as follows: ISS = 13.252-0.078(mean blood pressure) + 0.12(fibrin degradation products). The P -value of this formula from analysis of variance was <0.001, and the multiple correlation coefficient (R) was 0.739 (R 2  = 0.546). The multiple correlation coefficient adjusted for the degrees of freedom was 0.538. The Durbin-Watson ratio was 2.200. A formula for predicting the injury severity score in trauma patients was developed with ordinary parameters such as fibrin degradation products and mean blood pressure. This formula is useful because we can predict the injury severity score easily in the emergency department.

The limits of modifying migration speed to adjust to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmaljohann, Heiko; Both, Christiaan

2017-08-01

Predicting the range of variation over which organisms can adjust to environmental change is a major challenge in ecology. This is exemplified in migratory birds which experience changes in different habitats throughout the annual cycle. Earlier studies showed European population trends declining strongest in migrant species with least adjustment in spring arrival time. Thus, the increasing mismatches with other trophic levels in seasonal breeding areas probably contribute to their large-scale decline. Here we quantify the potential range of adjusting spring arrival dates through modifying migration speeds by reviewing 49 tracking studies. Among-individual variation in migration speed was mainly determined by the relatively short stop-over duration. Assuming this population response reflects individual phenotypic plasticity, we calculated the potential for phenotypic plasticity to speed-up migration by reducing stop-over duration. Even a 50% reduction would lead to a mere two-day advance in arrival, considering adjustments on the final 2,000 km of the spring journey. Hence, in contrast to previous studies, flexibility in the major determinant of migration duration seems insufficient to adjust to ongoing climate change, and is unlikely to explain some of the observed arrival advancements in long-distance migrants.

Particle detection and non-detection in a quantum time of arrival measurement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sombillo, Denny Lane B., E-mail: dsombillo@nip.upd.edu.ph; Galapon, Eric A.

2016-01-15

The standard time-of-arrival distribution cannot reproduce both the temporal and the spatial profile of the modulus squared of the time-evolved wave function for an arbitrary initial state. In particular, the time-of-arrival distribution gives a non-vanishing probability even if the wave function is zero at a given point for all values of time. This poses a problem in the standard formulation of quantum mechanics where one quantizes a classical observable and uses its spectral resolution to calculate the corresponding distribution. In this work, we show that the modulus squared of the time-evolved wave function is in fact contained in one ofmore » the degenerate eigenfunctions of the quantized time-of-arrival operator. This generalizes our understanding of quantum arrival phenomenon where particle detection is not a necessary requirement, thereby providing a direct link between time-of-arrival quantization and the outcomes of the two-slit experiment. -- Highlights: •The time-evolved position density is contained in the standard TOA distribution. •Particle may quantum mechanically arrive at a given point without being detected. •The eigenstates of the standard TOA operator are linked to the two-slit experiment.« less

Low-frequency pulse propagation over 510 km in the Philippine Sea: A comparison of observed and theoretical pulse spreading.

PubMed

Andrew, Rex K; Ganse, Andrew; White, Andrew W; Mercer, James A; Dzieciuch, Matthew A; Worcester, Peter F; Colosi, John A

2016-07-01

Observations of the spread of wander-corrected averaged pulses propagated over 510 km for 54 h in the Philippine Sea are compared to Monte Carlo predictions using a parabolic equation and path-integral predictions. Two simultaneous m-sequence signals are used, one centered at 200 Hz, the other at 300 Hz; both have a bandwidth of 50 Hz. The internal wave field is estimated at slightly less than unity Garrett-Munk strength. The observed spreads in all the early ray-like arrivals are very small, <1 ms (for pulse widths of 17 and 14 ms), which are on the order of the sampling period. Monte Carlo predictions show similar very small spreads. Pulse spread is one consequence of scattering, which is assumed to occur primarily at upper ocean depths where scattering processes are strongest and upward propagating rays refract downward. If scattering effects in early ray-like arrivals accumulate with increasing upper turning points, spread might show a similar dependence. Real and simulation results show no such dependence. Path-integral theory prediction of spread is accurate for the earliest ray-like arrivals, but appears to be increasingly biased high for later ray-like arrivals, which have more upper turning points.

Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdez, L. D.; Aragão Rêgo, H. H.; Stanley, H. E.; Braunstein, L. A.

2015-07-01

The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia is caused by travel between counties. For the initial months in which the Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the disease into the counties predicted by our model are compatible with World Health Organization data, but we also find that reducing mobility is insufficient to contain the epidemic because it delays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks. We study the effect of a strategy in which safe burials are increased and effective hospitalisation instituted under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July 2014 and (ii) one in mid-August—which was the actual time that strong interventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had been pursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been three months shorter and the total number of infected individuals 80% less than in scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) is that the spreading will stop by mid-spring 2015.

Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies.

PubMed

Valdez, L D; Aragão Rêgo, H H; Stanley, H E; Braunstein, L A

2015-07-20

The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia is caused by travel between counties. For the initial months in which the Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the disease into the counties predicted by our model are compatible with World Health Organization data, but we also find that reducing mobility is insufficient to contain the epidemic because it delays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks. We study the effect of a strategy in which safe burials are increased and effective hospitalisation instituted under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July 2014 and (ii) one in mid-August--which was the actual time that strong interventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had been pursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been three months shorter and the total number of infected individuals 80% less than in scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) is that the spreading will stop by mid-spring 2015.

Analysis of the equilibrium trip cost accounting for the fuel cost in a single-lane traffic system without late arrival

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Tie-Qiao; Wang, Tao; Chen, Liang; Huang, Hai-Jun

2018-01-01

In this paper, we introduce the fuel cost into each commuter's trip cost, define a new trip cost without late arrival and its corresponding equilibrium state, and use a car-following model to explore the impacts of the fuel cost on each commuter's departure time, departure interval, arrival time, arrival interval, traveling time, early arrival time and trip cost at the above equilibrium state. The numerical results show that considering the fuel cost in each commuter's trip cost has positive impacts on his trip cost and fuel cost, and the traffic situation in the system without late arrival, i.e., each commuter should explicitly consider the fuel cost in his trip cost.

Theoretical and experimental studies of the waveforms associated with stratospheric infrasonic returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waxler, R.; Talmadge, C. L.; Blom, P.

2009-12-01

Theory predicts that for ground to ground infrasound propagation along paths which travel downwind, relative to the stratospheric jet, there is a shadow zone which ends about 200 km from the source where the first return from the stratosphere strikes the earth. With increasing range the single stratospheric arrival splits into two distinct arrivals, a fast arrival with the trace velocity of the effective sound speed at the stratopause, and a slower arrival with the trace velocity of the sound speed on the ground. To test the theory we have deployed eight infrasound arrays along an approximate line directly west of the site of the US Navy's Trident Missile rocket motor eliminations. The arrays were deployed during the summer of 2009 spaced roughly 10 km apart along a segment from 180 to 260 km west of the site. Comparisons between the theoretical predictions and the received data will be presented.

Limiting the effects of earthquakes on gravitational-wave interferometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coughlin, Michael; Earle, Paul; Harms, Jan; Biscans, Sebastien; Buchanan, Christopher; Coughlin, Eric; Donovan, Fred; Fee, Jeremy; Gabbard, Hunter; Guy, Michelle; Mukund, Nikhil; Perry, Matthew

2017-02-01

Ground-based gravitational wave interferometers such as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) are susceptible to ground shaking from high-magnitude teleseismic events, which can interrupt their operation in science mode and significantly reduce their duty cycle. It can take several hours for a detector to stabilize enough to return to its nominal state for scientific observations. The down time can be reduced if advance warning of impending shaking is received and the impact is suppressed in the isolation system with the goal of maintaining stable operation even at the expense of increased instrumental noise. Here, we describe an early warning system for modern gravitational-wave observatories. The system relies on near real-time earthquake alerts provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Preliminary low latency hypocenter and magnitude information is generally available in 5 to 20 min of a significant earthquake depending on its magnitude and location. The alerts are used to estimate arrival times and ground velocities at the gravitational-wave detectors. In general, 90% of the predictions for ground-motion amplitude are within a factor of 5 of measured values. The error in both arrival time and ground-motion prediction introduced by using preliminary, rather than final, hypocenter and magnitude information is minimal. By using a machine learning algorithm, we develop a prediction model that calculates the probability that a given earthquake will prevent a detector from taking data. Our initial results indicate that by using detector control configuration changes, we could prevent interruption of operation from 40 to 100 earthquake events in a 6-month time-period.

Limiting the effects of earthquakes on gravitational-wave interferometers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coughlin, Michael; Earle, Paul; Harms, Jan; Biscans, Sebastien; Buchanan, Christopher; Coughlin, Eric; Donovan, Fred; Fee, Jeremy; Gabbard, Hunter; Guy, Michelle; Mukund, Nikhil; Perry, Matthew

2017-01-01

Ground-based gravitational wave interferometers such as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) are susceptible to ground shaking from high-magnitude teleseismic events, which can interrupt their operation in science mode and significantly reduce their duty cycle. It can take several hours for a detector to stabilize enough to return to its nominal state for scientific observations. The down time can be reduced if advance warning of impending shaking is received and the impact is suppressed in the isolation system with the goal of maintaining stable operation even at the expense of increased instrumental noise. Here, we describe an early warning system for modern gravitational-wave observatories. The system relies on near real-time earthquake alerts provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Preliminary low latency hypocenter and magnitude information is generally available in 5 to 20 min of a significant earthquake depending on its magnitude and location. The alerts are used to estimate arrival times and ground velocities at the gravitational-wave detectors. In general, 90% of the predictions for ground-motion amplitude are within a factor of 5 of measured values. The error in both arrival time and ground-motion prediction introduced by using preliminary, rather than final, hypocenter and magnitude information is minimal. By using a machine learning algorithm, we develop a prediction model that calculates the probability that a given earthquake will prevent a detector from taking data. Our initial results indicate that by using detector control configuration changes, we could prevent interruption of operation from 40 to 100 earthquake events in a 6-month time-period.

Automatic pickup of arrival time of channel wave based on multi-channel constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bao-Li

2018-03-01

Accurately detecting the arrival time of a channel wave in a coal seam is very important for in-seam seismic data processing. The arrival time greatly affects the accuracy of the channel wave inversion and the computed tomography (CT) result. However, because the signal-to-noise ratio of in-seam seismic data is reduced by the long wavelength and strong frequency dispersion, accurately timing the arrival of channel waves is extremely difficult. For this purpose, we propose a method that automatically picks up the arrival time of channel waves based on multi-channel constraints. We first estimate the Jaccard similarity coefficient of two ray paths, then apply it as a weight coefficient for stacking the multichannel dispersion spectra. The reasonableness and effectiveness of the proposed method is verified in an actual data application. Most importantly, the method increases the degree of automation and the pickup precision of the channel-wave arrival time.

Probabilistic SSME blades structural response under random pulse loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiao, Michael; Rubinstein, Robert; Nagpal, Vinod K.

1987-01-01

The purpose is to develop models of random impacts on a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) turbopump blade and to predict the probabilistic structural response of the blade to these impacts. The random loading is caused by the impact of debris. The probabilistic structural response is characterized by distribution functions for stress and displacements as functions of the loading parameters which determine the random pulse model. These parameters include pulse arrival, amplitude, and location. The analysis can be extended to predict level crossing rates. This requires knowledge of the joint distribution of the response and its derivative. The model of random impacts chosen allows the pulse arrivals, pulse amplitudes, and pulse locations to be random. Specifically, the pulse arrivals are assumed to be governed by a Poisson process, which is characterized by a mean arrival rate. The pulse intensity is modelled as a normally distributed random variable with a zero mean chosen independently at each arrival. The standard deviation of the distribution is a measure of pulse intensity. Several different models were used for the pulse locations. For example, three points near the blade tip were chosen at which pulses were allowed to arrive with equal probability. Again, the locations were chosen independently at each arrival. The structural response was analyzed both by direct Monte Carlo simulation and by a semi-analytical method.

The incorporation of fault zone head wave and direct wave secondary arrival times and arrival polarizations into seismic tomography: Application to the Parkfield, California area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennington, N. L.; Thurber, C. H.; Peng, Z.; Zhao, P.

2012-12-01

We present a 3D P-wave velocity (Vp) model of the Parkfield region that utilizes existing P-wave arrival time data, including fault zone head waves (FZHW), plus new data from direct wave secondary arrivals (DWSA). The first-arrival and DWSA travel times are obtained as the global and local minimum travel time paths, respectively. The inclusion of DWSA results in as much as a 10% increase in the across-fault velocity contrast for the Vp model at Parkfield relative to Thurber et al. (2006). Viewed along strike, three pronounced velocity contrast regions are observed: a pair of strong positive velocity contrasts (SW fast), one NW of the 1966 Parkfield hypocenter and the other SE of the 2004 Parkfield hypocenter, and a strong negative velocity contrast (NE fast) between the two hypocenters. The negative velocity contrast partially to entirely encompasses peak coseismic slip estimated in several slip models for the 2004 earthquake, suggesting that the negative velocity contrast played a part in defining the rupture patch of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. We expand on this work by modifying our seismic tomography algorithm to incorporate arrival polarizations (azimuths). Synthetic tests will be presented to demonstrate the improvements in velocity structure when arrival polarizations are incorporated. These tests will compare the synthetic model recovered when FZHW/DWSA arrivals as well as existing P-wave arrival time data are inverted to that recovered with the same dataset with the inclusion of arrival polarizations. We plan to extend this work to carry out a full scale seismic tomography/relocation inversion at Parkfield, CA utilizing arrival polarizations from all first-P arrivals, and FZHW/DWSA arrivals as well as existing P-wave arrival time data. This effort requires the determination of polarization data for all P-waves and FZHW's at Parkfield. To this end, we use changes in the arrival azimuth from fault normal to source-receiver direction to identify FZHW and DWSA arrivals. We also use an eigenvalue decomposition to determine the direction of the incoming wave field, and to measure the arrival azimuths. This work is supported by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program under grant numbers G11AP20027 and G11AP20028.

Direct Breakthrough Curve Prediction From Statistics of Heterogeneous Conductivity Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Scott K.; Haslauer, Claus P.; Cirpka, Olaf A.; Vesselinov, Velimir V.

2018-01-01

This paper presents a methodology to predict the shape of solute breakthrough curves in heterogeneous aquifers at early times and/or under high degrees of heterogeneity, both cases in which the classical macrodispersion theory may not be applicable. The methodology relies on the observation that breakthrough curves in heterogeneous media are generally well described by lognormal distributions, and mean breakthrough times can be predicted analytically. The log-variance of solute arrival is thus sufficient to completely specify the breakthrough curves, and this is calibrated as a function of aquifer heterogeneity and dimensionless distance from a source plane by means of Monte Carlo analysis and statistical regression. Using the ensemble of simulated groundwater flow and solute transport realizations employed to calibrate the predictive regression, reliability estimates for the prediction are also developed. Additional theoretical contributions include heuristics for the time until an effective macrodispersion coefficient becomes applicable, and also an expression for its magnitude that applies in highly heterogeneous systems. It is seen that the results here represent a way to derive continuous time random walk transition distributions from physical considerations rather than from empirical field calibration.

Analysis and modeling of infrasound from a four-stage rocket launch.

PubMed

Blom, Philip; Marcillo, Omar; Arrowsmith, Stephen

2016-06-01

Infrasound from a four-stage sounding rocket was recorded by several arrays within 100 km of the launch pad. Propagation modeling methods have been applied to the known trajectory to predict infrasonic signals at the ground in order to identify what information might be obtained from such observations. There is good agreement between modeled and observed back azimuths, and predicted arrival times for motor ignition signals match those observed. The signal due to the high-altitude stage ignition is found to be low amplitude, despite predictions of weak attenuation. This lack of signal is possibly due to inefficient aeroacoustic coupling in the rarefied upper atmosphere.

Influence of coronal mass ejections on parameters of high-speed solar wind: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shugay, Yulia; Slemzin, Vladimir; Rodkin, Denis; Yermolaev, Yuri; Veselovsky, Igor

2018-05-01

We investigate the case of disagreement between predicted and observed in-situ parameters of the recurrent high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs) existing for Carrington rotation (CR) 2118 (December 2011) in comparison with CRs 2117 and 2119. The HSSs originated at the Sun from a recurrent polar coronal hole (CH) expanding to mid-latitudes, and its area in the central part of the solar disk increased with the rotation number. This part of the CH was responsible for the equatorial flank of the HSS directed to the Earth. The time and speed of arrival for this part of the HSS to the Earth were predicted by the hierarchical empirical model based on EUV-imaging and the Wang-Sheeley-Arge ENLIL semi-empirical replace model and compared with the parameters measured in-situ by model. The predicted parameters were compared with those measured in-situ. It was found, that for CR 2117 and CR 2119, the predicted HSS speed values agreed with the measured ones within the typical accuracy of ±100 km s-1. During CR 2118, the measured speed was on 217 km s-1 less than the value predicted in accordance with the increased area of the CH. We suppose that at CR 2118, the HSS overtook and interacted with complex ejecta formed from three merged coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with a mean speed about 400 km s-1. According to simulations of the Drag-based model, this complex ejecta might be created by several CMEs starting from the Sun in the period between 25 and 27 December 2011 and arriving to the Earth simultaneously with the HSS. Due to its higher density and magnetic field strength, the complex ejecta became an obstacle for the equatorial flank of the HSS and slowed it down. During CR 2117 and CR 2119, the CMEs appeared before the arrival of the HSSs, so the CMEs did not influence on the HSSs kinematics.

Carbon isotope turnover as a measure of arrival time in migratory birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.

2009-01-01

Arrival time on breeding or non-breeding areas is of interest in many ecological studies exploring fitness consequences of migratory schedules. However, in most field studies, it is difficult to precisely assess arrival time of individuals. Here, we use carbon isotope turnover in avian blood as a technique to estimate arrival time for birds switching from one habitat or environment to another. Stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) in blood assimilate to a new equilibrium following a diet switch according to an exponential decay function. This relationship can be used to determine the time a diet switch occurred if δ13C of both the old and new diet are known. We used published data of captive birds to validate that this approach provides reliable estimates of the time since a diet switch within 1–3 weeks after the diet switch. We then explored the utility of this technique for King Eiders (Somateria spectabilis) arriving on terrestrial breeding grounds after wintering and migration at sea. We estimated arrival time on breeding grounds in northern Alaska (95% CI) from red blood cell δ13C turnover to be 4–9 June. This estimate overlapped with arrival time of birds from the same study site tracked with satellite transmitters (5–12 June). Therefore, we conclude that this method provides a simple yet reliable way to assess arrival time of birds moving between isotopically distinct environments.

The effect of concurrent hand movement on estimated time to contact in a prediction motion task.

PubMed

Zheng, Ran; Maraj, Brian K V

2018-04-27

In many activities, we need to predict the arrival of an occluded object. This action is called prediction motion or motion extrapolation. Previous researchers have found that both eye tracking and the internal clocking model are involved in the prediction motion task. Additionally, it is reported that concurrent hand movement facilitates the eye tracking of an externally generated target in a tracking task, even if the target is occluded. The present study examined the effect of concurrent hand movement on the estimated time to contact in a prediction motion task. We found different (accurate/inaccurate) concurrent hand movements had the opposite effect on the eye tracking accuracy and estimated TTC in the prediction motion task. That is, the accurate concurrent hand tracking enhanced eye tracking accuracy and had the trend to increase the precision of estimated TTC, but the inaccurate concurrent hand tracking decreased eye tracking accuracy and disrupted estimated TTC. However, eye tracking accuracy does not determine the precision of estimated TTC.

Development of a traveltime prediction equation for streams in Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funkhouser, Jaysson E.; Barks, C. Shane

2004-01-01

During 1971 and 1981 and 2001 and 2003, traveltime measurements were made at 33 sample sites on 18 streams throughout northern and western Arkansas using fluorescent dye. Most measurements were made during steady-state base-flow conditions with the exception of three measurements made during near steady-state medium-flow conditions (for the study described in this report, medium-flow is approximately 100-150 percent of the mean monthly streamflow during the month the dye trace was conducted). These traveltime data were compared to the U.S. Geological Survey?s national traveltime prediction equation and used to develop a specific traveltime prediction equation for Arkansas streams. In general, the national traveltime prediction equation yielded results that over-predicted the velocity of the streams for 29 of the 33 sites measured. The standard error for the national traveltime prediction equation was 105 percent. The coefficient of determination was 0.78. The Arkansas prediction equation developed from a regression analysis of dye-tracing results was a significant improvement over the national prediction equation. This regression analysis yielded a standard error of 46 percent and a coefficient of determination of 0.74. The predicted velocities using this equation compared better to measured velocities. Using the variables in a regression analysis, the Arkansas prediction equation derived for the peak velocity in feet per second was: (Actual Equation Shown in report) In addition to knowing when the peak concentration will arrive at a site, it is of great interest to know when the leading edge of a contaminant plume will arrive. The traveltime of the leading edge of a contaminant plume indicates when a potential problem might first develop and also defines the overall shape of the concentration response function. Previous USGS reports have shown no significant relation between any of the variables and the time from injection to the arrival of the leading edge of the dye plume. For this report, the analysis of the dye-tracing data yielded a significant correlation between traveltime of the leading edge and traveltime of the peak concentration with an R2 value of 0.99. These data indicate that the traveltime of the leading edge can be estimated from: (Actual Equation Shown in Report)

Multiscale 2D Inversions of Active-source First-arrival Times in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y. P.; Zhao, L.; Hung, S. H.

2015-12-01

In this study, we make use of the active-source records collected by the TAIGER (TAiwan Integrated GEodynamics Research) project in 2008 at nearly 1400 locations on the island of Taiwan and the surrounding ocean bottom. We manually picked the first-arrival times from the waveform records to obtain a set of highly accurate P-wave traveltimes. Among the 1400 receivers, more than 1000 were deployed along four almost linear cross-island profiles with inter-seismometer spacing down to 200 m. This ground-truth dataset provides strong constrains on the structure between the exactly known active sources and densely distributed receivers, which can be used to calibrate the seismic structure in the upper crust in Taiwan. In this study, we use this dataset to image the two-dimensional P-wave structure along the four linear profiles. A wavelet parameterization of the model is adopted to achieve an objective and data-adaptive multiscale resolution to the 2D structures. Rigorous estimations of resolution lengths were also conducted to quantify the spatial resolutions of the tomography inversions. The resulting 2D models yield first-arrival time predictions that are in excellent agreement with the observations. The seismic structures along the 2D profiles display strong lateral variations (up to 80% relative to regional average) with more realistic amplitudes of velocity perturbations and spatial patterns consistent with geological zonations of Taiwan

Social factors influencing hospital arrival time in acute ischemic stroke patients.

PubMed

Iosif, Christina; Papathanasiou, Mathilda; Staboulis, Eleftherios; Gouliamos, Athanasios

2012-04-01

This is a multi-center, hospital-based study aiming to estimate social factors influencing pre-hospital times of arrival in acute ischemic stroke, with a perspective of finding ways to reduce arrival time and to augment the number of patients eligible for intra-arterial thrombolysis. Acute ischemic stroke patients who presented at the emergency units of four major general public hospitals were registered. We assessed information concerning demographics, time of presentation, clinical situation, imaging, treatment, and socioeconomic factors. The sample was divided in two sub-samples, based on the time of arrival since onset of symptoms, and was statistically analyzed. During one calendar year (2005), 907 patients were registered. Among them 34.6% arrived in the first 6 h from symptom onset, 38.7% arrived between 6 and 24 h, 18.1% after 24 h and for 8.6% the time of onset was unknown. Younger age (P = 0.007), transfer with ambulatory service (Ρ = 0.002), living with a mate (Ρ = 0.004), and higher educational level (P < 0.005) were factors which correlated significantly with early arrival at the hospital. Instructing patients at high risk for stroke to live with a housemate appears beneficial for timely arrival at the hospital. The establishment of dedicated acute stroke call and transportation center should improve the percentage of early arrival. A national information campaign is needed to increase the level of awareness of the population concerning beneficial social behaviors and optimal reaction to symptoms of acute ischemic stroke.

Emergency department arrival times after acute ischemic stroke during the 1990s.

PubMed

Kleindorfer, Dawn O; Broderick, Joseph P; Khoury, Jane; Flaherty, Matthew L; Woo, Daniel; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J; Pancioli, Arthur; Jauch, Edward; Miller, Rosie; Kissela, Brett M

2007-01-01

Only 8% of ischemic stroke (IS) patients are eligible for rt-PA, and the largest exclusion criterion is delayed time of presentation to the ED. We sought to investigate whether patients are arriving to the ED more quickly in 1999 than in 1993/94 within our large biracial population of 1.3 million. Using ICD-9 codes 430-436, we ascertained all stroke events that presented to a local ED within our population in 7/93-6/94 and again in 1999. Times were recorded as documented in the medical record. There were 1,792 IS patients that presented to an ED in 1993/94 and 1,973 in 1999. The percentage of patients with documented times arriving in under 3 h improved slightly in 1999 (26% vs. 23% in 93/94, P = 0.03), however, the percentage arriving in under 2 h did not. Blacks significantly improved in arrivals under 3 h: 26% in 1999 compared to 17% in 1993/94 (P = 0.01), while whites did not (26% vs. 25%, P = 0.29). In 1999, only 9% of patients arrived from 3-8 h after symptom onset, the large majority of times were either estimated, unknown, or >8 h. We found only marginal improvement in arrival times during the 1990s. In our population, blacks improved in early arrival after symptom onset, while whites did not. Very few patients arrive 3-8 h after onset; therefore expansion of the acute treatment time window to 8 h is unlikely to dramatically affect acute treatment of ischemic stroke.

A catalogue of the small transients observed in STEREO HI-A and their associated in-situ measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Diaz, Eduardo; Rouillard, Alexis P.; Davies, Jackie A.; Kilpua, Emilia; Plotnikov, Illya

2017-04-01

The systematic monitoring of the solar wind in high-cadence and high-resolution heliospheric images taken by the Solar-Terrestrial Relation Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft permits the study of the spatial and temporal evolution of variable solar wind flows from the Sun out to 1 AU, and beyond. As part of the EU Framework 7 (FP7) Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis and Techniques Service (HELCATS) project, Plotnikov et al. (2016) created a catalogue of 190 Stream Interaction Regions (SIRs) well-observed in images taken by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments onboard STEREO-A (ST-A). This catalogue has been made available on line on the official HELCATS website (https://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp5_cat.html) and included in the propagation tool (http://propagationtool.cdpp.eu). Several transients, known as blobs, are observed entrained in each SIR. We complete this catalogue with the trajectory of individual blobs and with the latitudinal extent of the SIR. For every SIR we report whether the trajectory of any of the entrained blob impacts a spacecraft in the Heliosphere. For the cases where a blob is predicted to impact one or more spacecraft, we include in the catalogue the predicted arrival time and the date and time of the visually recognized blob which is the closest to the predicted arrival time. This new catalogue was also made available on line on the HELCATS project website. This work was made with the funding from the HELCATS project under the FP7 EU contract number 606692.

Novel and conventional serum biomarkers predicting acute kidney injury in adult cardiac surgery--a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Haase-Fielitz, Anja; Bellomo, Rinaldo; Devarajan, Prasad; Story, David; Matalanis, George; Dragun, Duska; Haase, Michael

2009-02-01

To compare the value of novel with conventional serum biomarkers in the prediction of acute kidney injury (AKI) in adult cardiac surgical patients according to preoperative renal function. Single-center, prospective observational study. Tertiary hospital. One hundred adult cardiac surgical patients. We measured concentrations of plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), and serum cystatin C, and creatinine and urea at baseline, on arrival in the intensive care unit (ICU) and at 24 hours postoperatively. We assessed such biomarkers in relation to the development of AKI (>50% increase in creatinine from baseline) and to a composite end point (need for renal replacement therapy and in-hospital mortality). We defined an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.60-0.69 as poor, 0.70-0.79 as fair, 0.80-0.89 as good, and 0.90-1.00 as excellent in terms of predictive value. On arrival in ICU, plasma NGAL and serum cystatin C were of good predictive value, but creatinine and urea were of poor predictive value. After exclusion of patients with preoperative renal impairment (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min), the predictive performance for AKI of all renal biomarkers on arrival in ICU remained unchanged except for cystatin C, which was of fair value in such patients. At 24 hours postoperatively, all renal biomarkers were of good predictive value. On arrival in ICU, novel biomarkers were superior to conventional biomarkers (p < 0.05). Plasma NGAL (p = 0.015) and serum cystatin C (p = 0.007) were independent predictors of AKI and of excellent value in the prediction of the composite end point. Early postoperative measurement of plasma NGAL was of good value in identifying patients who developed AKI after adult cardiac surgery. Plasma NGAL and serum cystatin C were superior to conventional biomarkers in the prediction of AKI and were also of prognostic value in this setting.

Predicting binaural responses from monaural responses in the gerbil medial superior olive

PubMed Central

Plauška, Andrius; Borst, J. Gerard

2016-01-01

Accurate sound source localization of low-frequency sounds in the horizontal plane depends critically on the comparison of arrival times at both ears. A specialized brainstem circuit containing the principal neurons of the medial superior olive (MSO) is dedicated to this comparison. MSO neurons are innervated by segregated inputs from both ears. The coincident arrival of excitatory inputs from both ears is thought to trigger action potentials, with differences in internal delays creating a unique sensitivity to interaural time differences (ITDs) for each cell. How the inputs from both ears are integrated by the MSO neurons is still debated. Using juxtacellular recordings, we tested to what extent MSO neurons from anesthetized Mongolian gerbils function as simple cross-correlators of their bilateral inputs. From the measured subthreshold responses to monaural wideband stimuli we predicted the rate-ITD functions obtained from the same MSO neuron, which have a damped oscillatory shape. The rate of the oscillations and the position of the peaks and troughs were accurately predicted. The amplitude ratio between dominant and secondary peaks of the rate-ITD function, captured in the width of its envelope, was not always exactly reproduced. This minor imperfection pointed to the methodological limitation of using a linear representation of the monaural inputs, which disregards any temporal sharpening occurring in the cochlear nucleus. The successful prediction of the major aspects of rate-ITD curves supports a simple scheme in which the ITD sensitivity of MSO neurons is realized by the coincidence detection of excitatory monaural inputs. PMID:27009164

Arrival and Departure Patterns of Public Sector Employees before and after Implementation of Flexitime.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ronen, Simcha

1981-01-01

Examined the effects of a flexible working hours schedule on the arrival and departure times of 162 public sector employees. Results indicated that workers, when scheduling their own workday, deviate only moderately from their preflexitime arrival/departure times; and they tend to develop relatively stable arrival/departure patterns. (Author/RC)

Shear wave arrival time estimates correlate with local speckle pattern.

PubMed

Mcaleavey, Stephen A; Osapoetra, Laurentius O; Langdon, Jonathan

2015-12-01

We present simulation and phantom studies demonstrating a strong correlation between errors in shear wave arrival time estimates and the lateral position of the local speckle pattern in targets with fully developed speckle. We hypothesize that the observed arrival time variations are largely due to the underlying speckle pattern, and call the effect speckle bias. Arrival time estimation is a key step in quantitative shear wave elastography, performed by tracking tissue motion via cross-correlation of RF ultrasound echoes or similar methods. Variations in scatterer strength and interference of echoes from scatterers within the tracking beam result in an echo that does not necessarily describe the average motion within the beam, but one favoring areas of constructive interference and strong scattering. A swept-receive image, formed by fixing the transmit beam and sweeping the receive aperture over the region of interest, is used to estimate the local speckle pattern. Metrics for the lateral position of the speckle are found to correlate strongly (r > 0.7) with the estimated shear wave arrival times both in simulations and in phantoms. Lateral weighting of the swept-receive pattern improved the correlation between arrival time estimates and speckle position. The simulations indicate that high RF echo correlation does not equate to an accurate shear wave arrival time estimate-a high correlation coefficient indicates that motion is being tracked with high precision, but the location tracked is uncertain within the tracking beam width. The presence of a strong on-axis speckle is seen to imply high RF correlation and low bias. The converse does not appear to be true-highly correlated RF echoes can still produce biased arrival time estimates. The shear wave arrival time bias is relatively stable with variations in shear wave amplitude and sign (-20 μm to 20 μm simulated) compared with the variation with different speckle realizations obtained along a given tracking vector. We show that the arrival time bias is weakly dependent on shear wave amplitude compared with the variation with axial position/ local speckle pattern. Apertures of f/3 to f/8 on transmit and f/2 and f/4 on receive were simulated. Arrival time error and correlation with speckle pattern are most strongly determined by the receive aperture.

Shear Wave Arrival Time Estimates Correlate with Local Speckle Pattern

PubMed Central

McAleavey, Stephen A.; Osapoetra, Laurentius O.; Langdon, Jonathan

2016-01-01

We present simulation and phantom studies demonstrating a strong correlation between errors in shear wave arrival time estimates and the lateral position of the local speckle pattern in targets with fully developed speckle. We hypothesize that the observed arrival time variations are largely due to the underlying speckle pattern, and call the effect speckle bias. Arrival time estimation is a key step in quantitative shear wave elastography, performed by tracking tissue motion via cross correlation of RF ultrasound echoes or similar methods. Variations in scatterer strength and interference of echoes from scatterers within the tracking beam result in an echo that does not necessarily describe the average motion within the beam, but one favoring areas of constructive interference and strong scattering. A swept-receive image, formed by fixing the transmit beam and sweeping the receive aperture over the region of interest, is used to estimate the local speckle pattern. Metrics for the lateral position of the speckle are found to correlate strongly (r>0.7) with the estimated shear wave arrival times both in simulations and in phantoms. Lateral weighting of the swept-receive pattern improved the correlation between arrival time estimates and speckle position. The simulations indicate that high RF echo correlation does not equate to an accurate shear wave arrival time estimate – a high correlation coefficient indicates that motion is being tracked with high precision, but the location tracked is uncertain within the tracking beam width. The presence of a strong on-axis speckle is seen to imply high RF correlation and low bias. The converse does not appear to be true – highly correlated RF echoes can still produce biased arrival time estimates. The shear wave arrival time bias is relatively stable with variations in shear wave amplitude and sign (−20 μm to 20 μm simulated) compared to the variation with different speckle realizations obtained along a given tracking vector. We show that the arrival time bias is weakly dependent on shear wave amplitude compared to the variation with axial position/local speckle pattern. Apertures of f/3 to f/8 on transmit and f/2 and f/4 on receive were simulated. Arrival time error and correlation with speckle pattern are most strongly determined by the receive aperture. PMID:26670847

Solar Particle Radiation Storms Forecasting and Analysis within the Framework of the `HESPERIA' HORIZON 2020 Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Posner, A.; Malandraki, O.; Nunez, M.; Heber, B.; Labrenz, J.; Kühl, P.; Milas, N.; Tsiropoula, G.; Pavlos, E.

2017-12-01

Two prediction tools that have been developed in the framework of HESPERIA based upon the proven concepts UMASEP and REleASE. Near-relativistic (NR) electrons traveling faster than ions (30 MeV protons have 0.25c) are used to forecast the arrival of protons of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with real-time measurements of NR electrons. The faster electrons arrive at L1 30 to 90 minutes before the slower protons. REleASE (Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration, Posner, 2007) uses this effect to predict the proton flux by utilizing actual electron fluxes and their most recent increases. Through HESPERIA, a clone of REleASE was built in open source programming language. The same forecasting principle was adapted to real-time data from ACE/EPAM. It is shown that HESPERIA REleASE forecasting works with any NR electron flux measurements. >500 MeV solar protons are so energetic that they usually have effects on the ground, producing Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events. Within HESPERIA, a predictor of >500 SEP proton events near earth (geostationary orbit) has been developed. In order to predict these events, UMASEP (Núñez, 2011, 2015) has been used. UMASEP makes a lag-correlation of solar electromagnetic (EM) flux with the particle flux near earth. If the correlation is high, the model infers that there is a magnetic connection through which particles are arriving. If, additionally, the intensity of the flux of the associated solar event is also high, then UMASEP issues a SEP prediction. In the case of the prediction of >500 MeV SEP events, the implemented system, called HESPERIA UMASEP-500, correlates X-ray flux with differential proton fluxes by GOES, and with fluxes collected by neutron monitor stations around the world. When the correlation estimation and flare surpasses thresholds, a >500 MeV SEP forecast is issued. These findings suggest that a synthesis of the various approaches may improve over the status quo. Both forecasting tools are operational on the HESPERIA server maintained at the National Observatory of Athens (https://www.hesperia.astro.noa.gr/). This project received funding from the EU's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant No 637324.

Performance of an Automated System for Control of Traffic in Terminal Airspace

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nikoleris, Tasos; Erzberger, Heinz; Paielli, Russell A.; Chu, Yung-Cheng

2016-01-01

This paper examines the performance of a system that performs automated conflict resolution and arrival scheduling for aircraft in the terminal airspace around major airports. Such a system has the potential to perform separation assurance and arrival sequencing tasks that are currently handled manually by human controllers. The performance of the system is tested against several simulated traffic scenarios that are characterized by the rate at which air traffic is metered into the terminal airspace. For each traffic scenario, the levels of performance that are examined include: number of conflicts predicted to occur, types of resolution maneuver used to resolve predicted conflicts, and the amount of delay for all flights. The simulation results indicate that the percentage of arrivals that required a maneuver that changes the flight's horizontal route ranged between 11% and 15% in all traffic scenarios. That finding has certain implications if this automated system were to be implemented simply as a decision support tool. It is also found that arrival delay due to purely wake vortex separation requirements on final approach constituted only between 29% and 35% of total arrival delay, while the remaining major portion of it is mainly due to delay back propagation effects.

Wind Prediction Accuracy for Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cole, Rod; Green, Steve; Jardin, Matt; Schwartz, Barry; Benjamin, Stan

2000-01-01

The performance of Air Traffic Management and flight deck decision support tools depends in large part on the accuracy of the supporting 4D trajectory predictions. This is particularly relevant to conflict prediction and active advisories for the resolution of conflicts and the conformance with of traffic-flow management flow-rate constraints (e.g., arrival metering / required time of arrival). Flight test results have indicated that wind prediction errors may represent the largest source of trajectory prediction error. The tests also discovered relatively large errors (e.g., greater than 20 knots), existing in pockets of space and time critical to ATM DST performance (one or more sectors, greater than 20 minutes), are inadequately represented by the classic RMS aggregate prediction-accuracy studies of the past. To facilitate the identification and reduction of DST-critical wind-prediction errors, NASA has lead a collaborative research and development activity with MIT Lincoln Laboratories and the Forecast Systems Lab of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This activity, begun in 1996, has focussed on the development of key metrics for ATM DST performance, assessment of wind-prediction skill for state of the art systems, and development/validation of system enhancements to improve skill. A 13 month study was conducted for the Denver Center airspace in 1997. Two complementary wind-prediction systems were analyzed and compared to the forecast performance of the then standard 60 km Rapid Update Cycle - version 1 (RUC-1). One system, developed by NOAA, was the prototype 40-km RUC-2 that became operational at NCEP in 1999. RUC-2 introduced a faster cycle (1 hr vs. 3 hr) and improved mesoscale physics. The second system, Augmented Winds (AW), is a prototype en route wind application developed by MITLL based on the Integrated Terminal Wind System (ITWS). AW is run at a local facility (Center) level, and updates RUC predictions based on an optimal interpolation of the latest ACARS reports since the RUC run. This paper presents an overview of the study's results including the identification and use of new large mor wind-prediction accuracy metrics that are key to ATM DST performance.

From SOHO to STEREO: Understanding Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk

2011-01-01

Direct comparison between coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from near the Sun and their solar wind counterparts became possible roughly a decade after the discovery of CMEs (Lindsay et aL 1999). This comparison revealed that fast CMEs decelerate and slow CMEs accelerate due to the interaction with the solar wind. Gopalswamy et al (2000) quantified this interaction as an interplanetary acceleration which is useful in predicting the arrival time and speed of CMEs at 1 AU. The interplanetary acceleration is essentially due to the aerodynamic drag between the CME and the solar wind because the propelling force and the solar gravity are effective only near the Sun. Combined remote-sensing and in situ observations from SOHO and Wind/ACE have helped us estimate the influence of the solar wind on the propagation of CMEs. However, these measurements have severe limitations because the remote sensed and in-situ observations correspond to different portions of the CME. Furthermore, the true speeds of Earth-directed CMEs cannot be measured accurately from a spacecraft located along the Sun-Earth line. There have been attempts to model the CME as a cone and get the space speed of the CME, which did improve the travel time predictions. Instruments on board the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission were able to provide observations of Earth-arriving CMEs without projection effects, while the same CMEs were observed at Sun-Earth L1 by Wind and ACE spacecraft. The quadrature between STEREO and L1 spacecraft presented an ideal situation to study the interplanetary evolution of CMEs and test earlier model results. The quadrature observations did improve the CME travel time predictions, but additional factors such as the unusually slow solar wind, CME cannibalism, and coronal-hole deflection need to be considered to reconcile the difference between observed and predicted travel times. This point is illustrated using the 2011 February 15 CME

The effect of buildings on acoustic pulse propagation in an urban environment.

PubMed

Albert, Donald G; Liu, Lanbo

2010-03-01

Experimental measurements were conducted using acoustic pulse sources in a full-scale artificial village to investigate the reverberation, scattering, and diffraction produced as acoustic waves interact with buildings. These measurements show that a simple acoustic source pulse is transformed into a complex signature when propagating through this environment, and that diffraction acts as a low-pass filter on the acoustic pulse. Sensors located in non-line-of-sight (NLOS) positions usually recorded lower positive pressure maxima than sensors in line-of-sight positions. Often, the first arrival on a NLOS sensor located around a corner was not the largest arrival, as later reflection arrivals that traveled longer distances without diffraction had higher amplitudes. The waveforms are of such complexity that human listeners have difficulty identifying replays of the signatures generated by a single pulse, and the usual methods of source location based on the direction of arrivals may fail in many cases. Theoretical calculations were performed using a two-dimensional finite difference time domain (FDTD) method and compared to the measurements. The predicted peak positive pressure agreed well with the measured amplitudes for all but two sensor locations directly behind buildings, where the omission of rooftop ray paths caused the discrepancy. The FDTD method also produced good agreement with many of the measured waveform characteristics.

Influence of Convective Effect of Solar Winds on the CME Transit Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Lu-yuan

2017-10-01

Based on an empirical model for predicting the transit time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) proposed by Gopalswamy, 52 CME events which are related to the geomagnetic storms of Dst < -50 nT, and 10 CME events which caused extremely strong geomagnetic storms (Dst < -200 nT) in 1996- 2007 are selected, and combined with the observational data of the interplanetary solar winds that collected by the ACE satellite at 1AU, to analyze the influence of convective effect of ambient solar winds on the prediction of the CME transit time when it arrives at a place of 1 AU. After taking the convective effect of ambient solar winds into account, the standard deviation of predictions is reduced from 16.5 to 11.4 hours for the 52 CME events, and the prediction error is less than 15 hours for 68% of these events; while the standard deviation of predictions is reduced from 10.6 to 6.5 hours for the 10 CME events that caused extremely strong geomagnetic storms, and the prediction error is less than 5 hours for 6 of the 10 events. These results show that taking the convective effect of ambient solar winds into account can reduce the standard deviation of the predicted CME transit time, hence the convective effect of solar winds plays an important role for predicting the transit times of CME events.

The movement of sequestrated CO2 revealed by seismic attenuation spatial and temporal changes in Frio-II site, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.; Daley, T. M.

2015-12-01

Continuous active source seismic measurements (CASSM) were collected in the crosswell geometry during scCO2 injection at the Frio-II brine pilot (Liberty, TX). Previous studies (Daley et.al. 2007, 2011) have demonstrated that spatial-temporal changes in the picked first arrival time after CO2 injection constrain the movement of the CO2 plume in the storage interval. To improve the quantitative constraints on plume saturation using this dataset, we investigate spatial-temporal changes in the seismic attenuation of the first arrivals. The attenuation changes over the injection period (~60 h) are estimated by the amount of the centroid frequency shift computed by the local time-frequency analysis. Our observations include: at receivers above the packer seismic attenuation does not change in a physical trend; at receivers below the packer attenuation sharply increases as the amount of CO2 plume increase at the first few hours and peaks at specific points varying with distributed receivers, which are consistent with observations from time delays of first arrivals. Then, attenuation decreases over the injection time with increased amount of CO2 plume. This bell-shaped attenuation response as a function of time in the experiment is consistent with White's patchy saturation model which predicts an attenuation peak at intermediate CO2 saturations. Our analysis suggests that spatial-temporal attenuation change is an indicator of the movement/saturation of CO2 plume at high saturations, a system state for which seismic measurements are typically only weakly sensitive to.

Analysis and modeling of infrasound from a four-stage rocket launch

DOE PAGES

Blom, Philip Stephen; Marcillo, Omar Eduardo; Arrowsmith, Stephen

2016-06-17

Infrasound from a four-stage sounding rocket was recorded by several arrays within 100 km of the launch pad. Propagation modeling methods have been applied to the known trajectory to predict infrasonic signals at the ground in order to identify what information might be obtained from such observations. There is good agreement between modeled and observed back azimuths, and predicted arrival times for motor ignition signals match those observed. The signal due to the high-altitude stage ignition is found to be low amplitude, despite predictions of weak attenuation. As a result, this lack of signal is possibly due to inefficient aeroacousticmore » coupling in the rarefied upper atmosphere.« less

Analysis and modeling of infrasound from a four-stage rocket launch

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blom, Philip Stephen; Marcillo, Omar Eduardo; Arrowsmith, Stephen

Infrasound from a four-stage sounding rocket was recorded by several arrays within 100 km of the launch pad. Propagation modeling methods have been applied to the known trajectory to predict infrasonic signals at the ground in order to identify what information might be obtained from such observations. There is good agreement between modeled and observed back azimuths, and predicted arrival times for motor ignition signals match those observed. The signal due to the high-altitude stage ignition is found to be low amplitude, despite predictions of weak attenuation. As a result, this lack of signal is possibly due to inefficient aeroacousticmore » coupling in the rarefied upper atmosphere.« less

Air-Traffic Controllers Evaluate The Descent Advisor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tobias, Leonard; Volckers, Uwe; Erzberger, Heinz

1992-01-01

Report describes study of Descent Advisor algorithm: software automation aid intended to assist air-traffic controllers in spacing traffic and meeting specified times or arrival. Based partly on mathematical models of weather conditions and performances of aircraft, it generates suggested clearances, including top-of-descent points and speed-profile data to attain objectives. Study focused on operational characteristics with specific attention to how it can be used for prediction, spacing, and metering.

The Predictability of Large-Scale, Short-Period Ocean Variability in the Philippine Sea and the Influence of Such Variability on Long-Range Acoustic Propagation

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

for the various ray arrivals on this path, with the black line indicating an average of these travel times. Altimetry data from 2000- 2007 were used...D.E. & Stammer , D., Eds., ESA Publication WPP-306. Dushaw, B. D., P. F. Worcester, W. H. Munk, R. C. Spindel, J. A. Mercer, B. M. Howe, K. Metzger

Assessment of CTAS ETA prediction capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolender, Michael A.

1994-11-01

This report summarizes the work done to date in assessing the trajectory fidelity and estimated time of arrival (ETA) prediction capability of the NASA Ames Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS) software. The CTAS software suite is a series of computer programs designed to aid air traffic controllers in their tasks of safely scheduling the landing sequence of approaching aircraft. in particular, this report concerns the accuracy of the available measurements (e.g., position, altitude, etc.) that are input to the software, as well as the accuracy of the final data that is made available to the air traffic controllers.

Computer Programs for the AUSEX (Aircraft Undersea Sound Experiment) Air-Water Acoustic Propagation Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-01-28

source-receiver geometry dynamics. For a given time instant, each of the subroutines outputs time variables ( emission time, arrival time...transmission loss, depression/elevation and azimuthal arrival angles, received frequency and range variables (range at emission time, range at arrival time...with the wind equal 24.5 kts. In the double bottom bounce regions, the emission angles (at the virtual surface source) are moderately small (15

Patient and System-Related Delays of Emergency Medical Services Use in Acute ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: Results from the Third Gulf Registry of Acute Coronary Events (Gulf RACE-3Ps).

PubMed

AlHabib, Khalid F; Sulaiman, Kadhim; Al Suwaidi, Jassim; Almahmeed, Wael; Alsheikh-Ali, Alawi A; Amin, Haitham; Al Jarallah, Mohammed; Alfaleh, Hussam F; Panduranga, Prashanth; Hersi, Ahmad; Kashour, Tarek; Al Aseri, Zohair; Ullah, Anhar; Altaradi, Hani B; Nur Asfina, Kazi; Welsh, Robert C; Yusuf, Salim

2016-01-01

Little is known about Emergency Medical Services (EMS) use and pre-hospital triage of patients with acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in Arabian Gulf countries. Clinical arrival and acute care within 24 h of STEMI symptom onset were compared between patients transferred by EMS (Red Crescent and Inter-Hospital) and those transferred by non-EMS means. Data were retrieved from a prospective registry of 36 hospitals in 6 Arabian Gulf countries, from January 2014 to January 2015. We enrolled 2,928 patients; mean age, 52.7 (SD ±11.8) years; 90% men; and 61.7% non-Arabian Gulf citizens. Only 753 patients (25.7%) used EMS; which was mostly via Inter-Hospital EMS (22%) rather than direct transfer from the scene to the hospital by the Red Crescent (3.7%). Compared to the non-EMS group, the EMS group was more likely to arrive initially at a primary or secondary health care facility; thus, they had longer median symptom-onset-to-emergency department arrival times (218 vs. 158 min; p˂.001); they were more likely to receive primary percutaneous coronary interventions (62% vs. 40.5%, p = 0.02); they had shorter door-to-needle times (38 vs. 42 min; p = .04); and shorter door-to-balloon times (47 vs. 83 min; p˂.001). High EMS use was independently predicted mostly by primary/secondary school educational levels and low or moderate socioeconomic status. Low EMS use was predicted by a history of angina and history of percutaneous coronary intervention. The groups had similar in-hospital deaths and outcomes. Most acute STEMI patients in the Arabian Gulf region did not use EMS services. Improving Red Crescent infrastructure, establishing integrated STEMI networks, and launching educational public campaigns are top health care system priorities.

Patient and System-Related Delays of Emergency Medical Services Use in Acute ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: Results from the Third Gulf Registry of Acute Coronary Events (Gulf RACE-3Ps)

PubMed Central

AlHabib, Khalid F.; Sulaiman, Kadhim; Al Suwaidi, Jassim; Almahmeed, Wael; Alsheikh-Ali, Alawi A.; Amin, Haitham; Al Jarallah, Mohammed; Alfaleh, Hussam F.; Panduranga, Prashanth; Hersi, Ahmad; Kashour, Tarek; Al Aseri, Zohair; Ullah, Anhar; Altaradi, Hani B.; Nur Asfina, Kazi; Welsh, Robert C.; Yusuf, Salim

2016-01-01

Background Little is known about Emergency Medical Services (EMS) use and pre-hospital triage of patients with acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in Arabian Gulf countries. Methods Clinical arrival and acute care within 24 h of STEMI symptom onset were compared between patients transferred by EMS (Red Crescent and Inter-Hospital) and those transferred by non-EMS means. Data were retrieved from a prospective registry of 36 hospitals in 6 Arabian Gulf countries, from January 2014 to January 2015. Results We enrolled 2,928 patients; mean age, 52.7 (SD ±11.8) years; 90% men; and 61.7% non-Arabian Gulf citizens. Only 753 patients (25.7%) used EMS; which was mostly via Inter-Hospital EMS (22%) rather than direct transfer from the scene to the hospital by the Red Crescent (3.7%). Compared to the non-EMS group, the EMS group was more likely to arrive initially at a primary or secondary health care facility; thus, they had longer median symptom-onset-to-emergency department arrival times (218 vs. 158 min; p˂.001); they were more likely to receive primary percutaneous coronary interventions (62% vs. 40.5%, p = 0.02); they had shorter door-to-needle times (38 vs. 42 min; p = .04); and shorter door-to-balloon times (47 vs. 83 min; p˂.001). High EMS use was independently predicted mostly by primary/secondary school educational levels and low or moderate socioeconomic status. Low EMS use was predicted by a history of angina and history of percutaneous coronary intervention. The groups had similar in-hospital deaths and outcomes. Conclusion Most acute STEMI patients in the Arabian Gulf region did not use EMS services. Improving Red Crescent infrastructure, establishing integrated STEMI networks, and launching educational public campaigns are top health care system priorities. PMID:26807577

Uncertainty and operational considerations in mass prophylaxis workforce planning.

PubMed

Hupert, Nathaniel; Xiong, Wei; King, Kathleen; Castorena, Michelle; Hawkins, Caitlin; Wu, Cindie; Muckstadt, John A

2009-12-01

The public health response to an influenza pandemic or other large-scale health emergency may include mass prophylaxis using multiple points of dispensing (PODs) to deliver countermeasures rapidly to affected populations. Computer models created to date to determine "optimal" staffing levels at PODs typically assume stable patient demand for service. The authors investigated POD function under dynamic and uncertain operational environments. The authors constructed a Monte Carlo simulation model of mass prophylaxis (the Dynamic POD Simulator, or D-PODS) to assess the consequences of nonstationary patient arrival patterns on POD function under a variety of POD layouts and staffing plans. Compared are the performance of a standard POD layout under steady-state and variable patient arrival rates that may mimic real-life variation in patient demand. To achieve similar performance, PODs functioning under nonstationary patient arrival rates require higher staffing levels than would be predicted using the assumption of stationary arrival rates. Furthermore, PODs may develop severe bottlenecks unless staffing levels vary over time to meet changing patient arrival patterns. Efficient POD networks therefore require command and control systems capable of dynamically adjusting intra- and inter-POD staff levels to meet demand. In addition, under real-world operating conditions of heightened uncertainty, fewer large PODs will require a smaller total staff than many small PODs to achieve comparable performance. Modeling environments that capture the effects of fundamental uncertainties in public health disasters are essential for the realistic evaluation of response mechanisms and policies. D-PODS quantifies POD operational efficiency under more realistic conditions than have been modeled previously. The authors' experiments demonstrate that effective POD staffing plans must be responsive to variation and uncertainty in POD arrival patterns. These experiments highlight the need for command and control systems to be created to manage emergency response successfully.

Health of children adopted from Ethiopia.

PubMed

Miller, Laurie C; Tseng, Beverly; Tirella, Linda G; Chan, Wilma; Feig, Emily

2008-09-01

Since 2000, American families have adopted 1,700 children from Ethiopia. Little is known about the health and development of these children. Retrospective chart review of the arrival health status of all 50 (26F:24M) children from Ethiopia/Eritrea seen in the International Adoption Clinic. Prior to adoption, most children resided with relatives; 36% were >18 months old prior to entry into care. More than 50% were true orphans, often due to HIV. Arrival age ranged from 3 months to 15 years (mean +/- SD 4 years +/- 43.8 months). At arrival, growth z scores were near-average (weight -.59, height -.64, head circumference -.09); significantly better than adopted children Guatemala, China, or Russia seen in our clinic. However, some Ethiopian children were significantly growth delayed (WAZ < or =-2, 8%, HAZ 12%, HCZ 18%). Age at adoption did not relate to growth delays. Medical issues on arrival included intestinal parasites (53%, [14% with > or =3 types]), skin infections (45%), dental caries (25%), elevated liver transaminases (20%), latent tuberculosis (18%), and hepatitis B (2%). Age-appropriate vaccines had been administered in 15-77% of children (depending on specific vaccine). Behavior problems were uncommon. Gross/fine motor and cognitive skills were approximately 86% of expected for age. Age correlated inversely with developmental scores for cognition (r = -.49, P = .003). Five children had age reassignments. Ethiopian/Eritean adoptees differ from other groups of internationally adopted children: they reside for relatively long periods of time with relatives prior to institutionalization, often have uncertain ages, exhibit few behavioral problems at arrival, have better growth, and may have less severe developmental delays. Whether these differences at arrival predict better outcomes for the Ethiopian/Eritrean children is unknown.

Modelling and Prediction of Spark-ignition Engine Power Performance Using Incremental Least Squares Support Vector Machines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Pak-kin; Vong, Chi-man; Wong, Hang-cheong; Li, Ke

2010-05-01

Modern automotive spark-ignition (SI) power performance usually refers to output power and torque, and they are significantly affected by the setup of control parameters in the engine management system (EMS). EMS calibration is done empirically through tests on the dynamometer (dyno) because no exact mathematical engine model is yet available. With an emerging nonlinear function estimation technique of Least squares support vector machines (LS-SVM), the approximate power performance model of a SI engine can be determined by training the sample data acquired from the dyno. A novel incremental algorithm based on typical LS-SVM is also proposed in this paper, so the power performance models built from the incremental LS-SVM can be updated whenever new training data arrives. With updating the models, the model accuracies can be continuously increased. The predicted results using the estimated models from the incremental LS-SVM are good agreement with the actual test results and with the almost same average accuracy of retraining the models from scratch, but the incremental algorithm can significantly shorten the model construction time when new training data arrives.

Plate mode velocities in graphite/epoxy plates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prosser, W. H.; Gorman, M. R.

1994-01-01

Measurements of the velocities of the extensional and flexural plate modes were made along three directions of propagation in four graphite/epoxy composite plates. The acoustic signals were generated by simulated acoustic emission events (pencil lead breaks or Hsu-Neilson sources) and detected by by broadband ultrasonic transducers. The first arrival of the extensional plate mode, which is nondispersive at low frequencies, was measured at a number of different distances from the source along the propagation direction of interest. The velocity was determined by plotting the distance versus arrival time and computing its slope. Because of the large dispersion of the flexural mode, a Fourier phase velocity technique was used to characterize this mode. The velocity was measured up to a frequency of 160 kHz. Theoretical predictions of the velocities of these modes were also made and compared with experimental observations. Classical plate theory yields good agreement with the measured extensional velocities. For predictions of the dispersion of the flexural mode, Mindlin plates theory, which includes the effects of shear deformation and rotatory inertia was shown to give better agreement with the experimental measurements.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of muscle patterns for ball catching

PubMed Central

D'Andola, M.; Cesqui, B.; Portone, A.; Fernandez, L.; Lacquaniti, F.; d'Avella, A.

2013-01-01

What sources of information and what control strategies the central nervous system (CNS) uses to perform movements that require accurate sensorimotor coordination, such as catching a flying ball, is still debated. Here we analyzed the EMG waveforms recorded from 16 shoulder and elbow muscles in six subjects during catching of balls projected frontally from a distance of 6 m and arriving at two different heights and with three different flight times (550, 650, 750 ms). We found that a large fraction of the variation in the muscle patterns was captured by two time-varying muscle synergies, coordinated recruitment of groups of muscles with specific activation waveforms, modulated in amplitude and shifted in time according to the ball's arrival height and flight duration. One synergy was recruited with a short and fixed delay from launch time. Remarkably, a second synergy was recruited at a fixed time before impact, suggesting that it is timed according to an accurate time-to-contact estimation. These results suggest that the control of interceptive movements relies on a combination of reactive and predictive processes through the intermittent recruitment of time-varying muscle synergies. Knowledge of the dynamic effect of gravity and drag on the ball may be then implicitly incorporated in a direct mapping of visual information into a small number of synergy recruitment parameters. PMID:23966939

Timing the Random and Anomalous Arrival of Particles in a Geiger Counter with GPS Devices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blanco, F.; La Rocca, P.; Riggi, F.; Riggi, S.

2008-01-01

The properties of the arrival time distribution of particles in a detector have been studied by the use of a small Geiger counter, with a GPS device to tag the event time. The experiment is intended to check the basic properties of the random arrival time distribution between successive events and to simulate the investigations carried out by…

Number needed to eat: pizza and resident conference attendance.

PubMed

Cosimini, Michael J; Mackintosh, Liza; Chang, Todd P

2016-12-01

The didactic conference is a common part of the resident education curriculum. Given the demands of clinical responsibilities and restrictions on duty hours, maximising education is a challenge faced by all residency programmes. To date, little research exists with respect to how the provision of complimentary food affects physician and resident conference attendance. The objective of this study was to determine whether complimentary food improves resident arrival times and attendance at educational conferences and, furthermore, to test whether this provision is a potentially cost-effective tool for improving education. A retrospective review of 36 resident educational Friday noon conferences, including 1043 resident arrivals, was performed. Data were analysed for total attendance, arrival times, number needed to eat (NNE) and the percentage of residents arriving on time, and compared between days on which food was and was not provided. Median attendance was 3.7% higher (p = 0.04) on days on which food was provided, at a cost of US$46 for each additional resident in attendance. Arrival times were also statistically significantly improved when food was provided, with a median improvement of 0.7 minutes (p = 0.02) and an 11.0% increase in on-time arrivals (p < 0.001). The NNE was 10.6. Complimentary food improves both attendance and arrival times by a small, but statistically significant, degree. The provision of complimentary food can be considered as an incentive for attendance and on-time arrival at didactic educational sessions, although more cost-effective modalities may exist. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and The Association for the Study of Medical Education.

An Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) for Dynamical Wake Vortex Spacing Criteria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinton, D. A.

1996-01-01

A concept is presented for the development and implementation of a prototype Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS). The purpose of the AVOSS is to use current and short-term predictions of the atmospheric state in approach and departure corridors to provide, to ATC facilities, dynamical weather dependent separation criteria with adequate stability and lead time for use in establishing arrival scheduling. The AVOSS will accomplish this task through a combination of wake vortex transport and decay predictions, weather state knowledge, defined aircraft operational procedures and corridors, and wake vortex safety sensors. Work is currently underway to address the critical disciplines and knowledge needs so as to implement and demonstrate a prototype AVOSS in the 1999/2000 time frame.

Predictive onboard flow control for packet switching satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bobinsky, Eric A.

1992-01-01

We outline two alternate approaches to predicting the onset of congestion in a packet switching satellite, and argue that predictive, rather than reactive, flow control is necessary for the efficient operation of such a system. The first method discussed is based on standard, statistical techniques which are used to periodically calculate a probability of near-term congestion based on arrival rate statistics. If this probability exceeds a present threshold, the satellite would transmit a rate-reduction signal to all active ground stations. The second method discussed would utilize a neural network to periodically predict the occurrence of buffer overflow based on input data which would include, in addition to arrival rates, the distributions of packet lengths, source addresses, and destination addresses.

Mitigating Photon Jitter in Optical PPM Communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moision, Bruce

2008-01-01

A theoretical analysis of photon-arrival jitter in an optical pulse-position-modulation (PPM) communication channel has been performed, and now constitutes the basis of a methodology for designing receivers to compensate so that errors attributable to photon-arrival jitter would be minimized or nearly minimized. Photon-arrival jitter is an uncertainty in the estimated time of arrival of a photon relative to the boundaries of a PPM time slot. Photon-arrival jitter is attributable to two main causes: (1) receiver synchronization error [error in the receiver operation of partitioning time into PPM slots] and (2) random delay between the time of arrival of a photon at a detector and the generation, by the detector circuitry, of a pulse in response to the photon. For channels with sufficiently long time slots, photon-arrival jitter is negligible. However, as durations of PPM time slots are reduced in efforts to increase throughputs of optical PPM communication channels, photon-arrival jitter becomes a significant source of error, leading to significant degradation of performance if not taken into account in design. For the purpose of the analysis, a receiver was assumed to operate in a photon- starved regime, in which photon counts follow a Poisson distribution. The analysis included derivation of exact equations for symbol likelihoods in the presence of photon-arrival jitter. These equations describe what is well known in the art as a matched filter for a channel containing Gaussian noise. These equations would yield an optimum receiver if they could be implemented in practice. Because the exact equations may be too complex to implement in practice, approximations that would yield suboptimal receivers were also derived.

Decision Modeling Framework to Minimize Arrival Delays from Ground Delay Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohleji, Nandita

Convective weather and other constraints create uncertainty in air transportation, leading to costly delays. A Ground Delay Program (GDP) is a strategy to mitigate these effects. Systematic decision support can increase GDP efficacy, reduce delays, and minimize direct operating costs. In this study, a decision analysis (DA) model is constructed by combining a decision tree and Bayesian belief network. Through a study of three New York region airports, the DA model demonstrates that larger GDP scopes that include more flights in the program, along with longer lead times that provide stakeholders greater notice of a pending program, trigger the fewest average arrival delays. These findings are demonstrated to result in a savings of up to $1,850 per flight. Furthermore, when convective weather is predicted, forecast weather confidences remain the same level or greater at least 70% of the time, supporting more strategic decision making. The DA model thus enables quantification of uncertainties and insights on causal relationships, providing support for future GDP decisions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maze, Grace M.

STREAM II is the aqueous transport model of the Weather Information Display (WIND) emergency response system at Savannah River Site. It is used to calculate transport in the event of a chemical or radiological spill into the waterways on the Savannah River Site. Improvements were made to the code (STREAM II V7) to include flow from all site tributaries to the Savannah River total flow and utilize a 4 digit year input. The predicted downstream concentrations using V7 were generally on the same order of magnitude as V6 with slightly lower concentrations and quicker arrival times when all onsite streammore » flows are contributing to the Savannah River flow. The downstream arrival time at the Savannah River Water Plant ranges from no change to an increase of 8.77%, with minimum changes typically in March/April and maximum changes typically in October/November. The downstream concentrations are generally no more than 15% lower using V7 with the maximum percent change in January through April and minimum changes in June/July.« less

FLIRT-ing with Zika: A Web Application to Predict the Movement of Infected Travelers Validated Against the Current Zika Virus Epidemic

PubMed Central

Huff, Andrew; Allen, Toph; Whiting, Karissa; Breit, Nathan; Arnold, Brock

2016-01-01

Introduction: Beginning in 2015, Zika virus rapidly spread throughout the Americas and has been linked to neurological and autoimmune diseases in adults and babies. Developing accurate tools to anticipate Zika spread is one of the first steps to mitigate further spread of the disease. When combined, air traffic data and network simulations can be used to create tools to predict where infectious disease may spread to and aid in the prevention of infectious diseases. Specific goals were to: 1) predict where travelers infected with the Zika Virus would arrive in the U.S.; and, 2) analyze and validate the open access web application’s (i.e., FLIRT) predictions using data collected after the prediction was made. Method: FLIRT was built to predict the flow and likely destinations of infected travelers through the air travel network. FLIRT uses a database of flight schedules from over 800 airlines, and can display direct flight traffic and perform passenger simulations between selected airports. FLIRT was used to analyze flights departing from five selected airports in locations where sustained Zika Virus transmission was occurring. FLIRT’s predictions were validated against Zika cases arriving in the U.S. from selected airports during the selected time periods.  Kendall’s τ and Generalized Linear Models were computed for all permutations of FLIRT and case data to test the accuracy of FLIRT’s predictions. Results: FLIRT was found to be predictive of the final destinations of infected travelers in the U.S. from areas with ongoing transmission of Zika in the Americas from 01 February 2016 - 01 to April 2016, and 11 January 2016 to 11 March 2016 time periods. MIA-FLL, JFK-EWR-LGA, and IAH were top ranked at-risk metro areas, and Florida, Texas and New York were top ranked states at-risk for the future time period analyzed (11 March 2016 - 11 June 2016). For the 11 January 2016 to 11 March 2016 time period, the region-aggregated model indicated 7.24 (95% CI 6.85 – 7.62) imported Zika cases per 100,000 passengers, and the state-aggregated model suggested 11.33 (95% CI 10.80 – 11.90) imported Zika cases per 100,000 passengers. Discussion: The results from 01 February 2016 to 01 April 2016 and 11 January 2016 to 11 March 2016 time periods support that modeling air travel and passenger movement can be a powerful tool in predicting where infectious diseases will spread next. As FLIRT was shown to significantly predict distribution of Zika Virus cases in the past, there should be heightened biosurveillance and educational campaigns to medical service providers and the general public in these states, especially in the large metropolitan areas.   PMID:27366587

FLIRT-ing with Zika: A Web Application to Predict the Movement of Infected Travelers Validated Against the Current Zika Virus Epidemic.

PubMed

Huff, Andrew; Allen, Toph; Whiting, Karissa; Breit, Nathan; Arnold, Brock

2016-06-10

 Beginning in 2015, Zika virus rapidly spread throughout the Americas and has been linked to neurological and autoimmune diseases in adults and babies. Developing accurate tools to anticipate Zika spread is one of the first steps to mitigate further spread of the disease. When combined, air traffic data and network simulations can be used to create tools to predict where infectious disease may spread to and aid in the prevention of infectious diseases. Specific goals were to: 1) predict where travelers infected with the Zika Virus would arrive in the U.S.; and, 2) analyze and validate the open access web application's (i.e., FLIRT) predictions using data collected after the prediction was made. FLIRT was built to predict the flow and likely destinations of infected travelers through the air travel network. FLIRT uses a database of flight schedules from over 800 airlines, and can display direct flight traffic and perform passenger simulations between selected airports. FLIRT was used to analyze flights departing from five selected airports in locations where sustained Zika Virus transmission was occurring. FLIRT's predictions were validated against Zika cases arriving in the U.S. from selected airports during the selected time periods.  Kendall's τ and Generalized Linear Models were computed for all permutations of FLIRT and case data to test the accuracy of FLIRT's predictions. FLIRT was found to be predictive of the final destinations of infected travelers in the U.S. from areas with ongoing transmission of Zika in the Americas from 01 February 2016 - 01 to April 2016, and 11 January 2016 to 11 March 2016 time periods. MIA-FLL, JFK-EWR-LGA, and IAH were top ranked at-risk metro areas, and Florida, Texas and New York were top ranked states at-risk for the future time period analyzed (11 March 2016 - 11 June 2016). For the 11 January 2016 to 11 March 2016 time period, the region-aggregated model indicated 7.24 (95% CI 6.85 - 7.62) imported Zika cases per 100,000 passengers, and the state-aggregated model suggested 11.33 (95% CI 10.80 - 11.90) imported Zika cases per 100,000 passengers. The results from 01 February 2016 to 01 April 2016 and 11 January 2016 to 11 March 2016 time periods support that modeling air travel and passenger movement can be a powerful tool in predicting where infectious diseases will spread next. As FLIRT was shown to significantly predict distribution of Zika Virus cases in the past, there should be heightened biosurveillance and educational campaigns to medical service providers and the general public in these states, especially in the large metropolitan areas.

Acute mountain sickness: Is there a lag period before symptoms?

PubMed

Gonzales, Gustavo F; Villena, Arturo; Aparicio, Ramon

1998-01-01

The present study was designed to determine if symptoms of acute mountain sickness are presented within six hours after arrival at high altitude. Seventeen male subjects, 23-30 years, were studied. The subjects were professional soccer players, life-long residents at low altitudes except one player who was playing soccer in a team at 3400 m (512 mm Hg of Barometric Pressure) during an entire year in 1995. The players were transported by a commercial airline from Lima (150 m) to Cusco (3400 m). The trip lasted 1 hour. Heart rate and arterial oxygen saturation were measured at rest in Lima (150 m), at the time of arrival at Cusco, and at 4 and 6 hours after arrival at 3400 m. On day 6 at high altitude, the physical performance during a soccer game was assessed. The symptoms of acute mountain sickness (AMS) were assessed 6 hours after arrival at Cusco with a self-administered questionnaire, and thereafter each 24-hours up to 5 days of exposure to high altitude. The following symptoms were assessed: headache, gastrointestinal symptoms, dizziness, fatigue, and sleep abnormalities. AMS was defined by a Lake-Louise score ⩾4 (self-assessment only). Thirty five percent of the soccer players developed AMS within 6 hours after arrival by air at 3400 m altitude. Arterial oxygen saturation at arrival was higher in those player who developed AMS within 6 hours after arrival (94.3 ± 0.94% vs 90.8 ± 2.36; P < 0.001). From arrival to 6 hours of exposure to altitude, there was a significant fall in arterial oxygen saturation in those men who developed AMS than in those who did not. Results from the stepwise multiple regression (R 2 = 0.59; P < 0.04) and logistic regression (R 2 = 0.48; P < 0.0019) analyses showed that the difference between arterial oxygen saturation at sea level and at arrival at Cusco was a predictor for the development of AMS within 6 hours upon arrival at altitude. This suggests that the lower the difference between arterial oxygen saturation at sea level and at arrival, the higher the probability to develop AMS within 6 hours after arrival at 3400 m. The presentation of AMS, however, does not predict low performance in physical activity at high altitude. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 10:669-677, 1998. © 1998 Wiley-Liss, Inc. Copyright © 1998 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A low body temperature on arrival at hospital following out-of-hospital-cardiac-arrest is associated with increased mortality in the TTM-study.

PubMed

Hovdenes, Jan; Røysland, Kjetil; Nielsen, Niklas; Kjaergaard, Jesper; Wanscher, Michael; Hassager, Christian; Wetterslev, Jørn; Cronberg, Tobias; Erlinge, David; Friberg, Hans; Gasche, Yvan; Horn, Janneke; Kuiper, Michael; Pellis, Tommaso; Stammet, Pascal; Wise, Matthew P; Åneman, Anders; Bugge, Jan Frederik

2016-10-01

To investigate the association of temperature on arrival to hospital after out-of-hospital-cardiac arrest (OHCA) with the primary outcome of mortality, in the targeted temperature management (TTM) trial. The TTM trial randomized 939 patients to TTM at 33 or 36°C for 24h. Patients were categorized according to their recorded body temperature on arrival and also categorized to groups of patients being actively cooled or passively rewarmed. OHCA patients having a temperature ≤34.0°C on arrival at hospital had a significantly higher mortality compared to the OHCA patients with a higher temperature on arrival. A low body temperature on arrival was associated with a longer time to return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and duration of transport time to hospital. Patients who were actively cooled or passively rewarmed during the first 4h had similar mortality. In a multivariate logistic regression model mortality was significantly related to time from OHCA to ROSC, time from OHCA to advanced life support (ALS), age, sex and first registered rhythm. None of the temperature related variables (included the TTM-groups) were significantly related to mortality. OHCA patients with a temperature ≤34.0°C on arrival have a higher mortality than patients with a temperature ≥34.1°C on arrival. A low temperature on arrival is associated with a long time to ROSC. Temperature changes and TTM-groups were not associated with mortality in a regression model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perturbation analysis of queueing systems with a time-varying arrival rate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cassandras, Christos G.; Pan, Jie

1991-01-01

The authors consider an M/G/1 queuing with a time-varying arrival rate. The objective is to obtain infinitesimal perturbation analysis (IPA) gradient estimates for various performance measures of interest with respect to certain system parameters. In particular, the authors consider the mean system time over n arrivals and an arrival rate alternating between two values. By choosing a convenient sample path representation of this system, they derive an unbiased IPA gradient estimator which, however, is not consistent, and investigate the nature of this problem.

Reproductive strategies of northern geese: Why wait?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, Craig R.; Bollinger, K.S.; Densmore, R.V.; Rothe, T.C.; Petrula, M.J.; Takekawa, John Y.; Orthmeyer, D.L.

2007-01-01

Migration and reproductive strategies in waterbirds are tightly linked, with timing of arrival and onset of nesting having important consequences for reproductive success. Whether migratory waterbirds are capital or income breeders is predicated by their spring migration schedule, how long they are on breeding areas before nesting, and how adapted they are to exploiting early spring foods at northern breeding areas. However, for most species, we know little about individual migration schedules, arrival times, and duration of residence on breeding areas before nesting. To document these relationships in a northern nesting goose, we radiotracked winter-marked Tule Greater White-fronted Geese (Anser albifrons elgasi; hereafter “Tule Geese”; n = 116) from the time of their arrival in Alaska through nesting. Tule Geese arrived on coastal feeding areas in mid-April and moved to nesting locations a week later. They initiated nests 15 days (range: 6–24 days) after arrival, a period roughly equivalent to the duration of rapid follicle growth. Tule Geese that arrived the earliest were more likely to nest than geese that arrived later; early arrivals also spent more time on the breeding grounds and nested earlier than geese that arrived later. The length of the prenesting period was comparable to that of other populations of this species, but longer than for goose species that initiate rapid follicle growth before arrival on the breeding grounds. We suggest that Tule Geese nesting in more temperate climates are more likely to delay breeding to exploit local food resources than Arctic-nesting species that may be constrained by short growing seasons.

Fast first arrival picking algorithm for noisy microseismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Dowan; Byun, Joongmoo; Lee, Minho; Choi, Jihoon; Kim, Myungsun

2017-01-01

Most microseismic events occur during hydraulic fracturing. Thus microseismic monitoring, by recording seismic waves from microseismic events, is one of the best methods for locating the positions of hydraulic fractures. However, since microseismic events have very low energy, the data often have a low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N ratio) and it is not easy to pick the first arrival time. In this study, we suggest a new fast picking method optimised for noisy data using cross-correlation and stacking. In this method, a reference trace is selected and the time differences between the first arrivals of the reference trace and those of the other traces are computed by cross-correlation. Then, all traces are aligned with the reference trace by time shifting, and the aligned traces are summed together to produce a stacked reference trace that has a considerably improved S/N ratio. After the first arrival time of the stacked reference trace is picked, the first arrival time of each trace is calculated automatically using the time differences obtained in the cross-correlation process. In experiments with noisy synthetic data and field data, this method produces more reliable results than the traditional method, which picks the first arrival time of each noisy trace separately. In addition, the computation time is dramatically reduced.

The Impact of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty on Air Traffic Controller Performance and Acceptability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mercer, Joey S.; Bienert, Nancy; Gomez, Ashley; Hunt, Sarah; Kraut, Joshua; Martin, Lynne; Morey, Susan; Green, Steven M.; Prevot, Thomas; Wu, Minghong G.

2013-01-01

A Human-In-The-Loop air traffic control simulation investigated the impact of uncertainties in trajectory predictions on NextGen Trajectory-Based Operations concepts, seeking to understand when the automation would become unacceptable to controllers or when performance targets could no longer be met. Retired air traffic controllers staffed two en route transition sectors, delivering arrival traffic to the northwest corner-post of Atlanta approach control under time-based metering operations. Using trajectory-based decision-support tools, the participants worked the traffic under varying levels of wind forecast error and aircraft performance model error, impacting the ground automations ability to make accurate predictions. Results suggest that the controllers were able to maintain high levels of performance, despite even the highest levels of trajectory prediction errors.

A Study of the Effects of Seafloor Topography on Tsunami Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohata, T.; Mikada, H.; Goto, T.; Takekawa, J.

2011-12-01

For tsunami disaster mitigation, we consider the phenomena related to tsunami in terms of the generation, propagation, and run-up to the coast. With consideration for these three phenomena, we have to consider tsunami propagation to predict the arrival time and the run-up height of tsunami. Numerical simulations of tsunami that propagates from the source location to the coast have been widely used to estimate these important parameters. When a tsunami propagates, however, reflected and scattered waves arrive as later phases of tsunami. These waves are generated by the changes of water depth, and could influence the height estimation, especially in later phases. The maximum height of tsunami could be observed not as the first arrivals but as the later phases, therefore it is necessary to consider the effects of the seafloor topography on tsunami propagation. Since many simulations, however, mainly focus on the prediction of the first arrival times and the initial height of tsunami, it is difficult to simulate the later phases that are important for the tsunami disaster mitigation in the conventional methods. In this study, we investigate the effects of the seafloor topography on tsunami propagation after accommodating a tsunami simulation to the superposition of reflected and refracted waves caused by the smooth changes of water depths. Developing the new numerical code, we consider how the effects of the sea floor topography affect on the tsunami propagation, comparing with the tsunami simulated by the conventional method based on the liner long wave theory. Our simulation employs the three dimensional in-equally spaced grids in finite difference method (FDM) to introduce the real seafloor topography. In the simulation, we import the seafloor topography from the real bathymetry data near the Sendai-Bay, off the northeast Tohoku region, Japan, and simulate the tsunami propagation over the varying seafloor topography there. Comparing with the tsunami simulated by the conventional method based on the liner long wave theory, we found that the amplitudes of tsunamis are different from each other for the two simulations. The degree of the amplification of the height of tsunami in our method is larger than that in the conventional one. The height of the later phases of the tsunamis shows the discrepancy between the two results. We would like to conclude that the real changes of water depth affect the prediction of tsunami propagation and the maximum height. Because of the effects of the seafloor topography, the amplitude of the later phases is sometimes larger than the former ones. Due to the inclusion of such effects by the real topography, we believe our method lead to a higher accuracy of prediction of tsunami later phases, which would be effective for tsunami disaster mitigation.

Can duration of hemodialysis be estimated based on the on-arrival laboratory tests and clinical manifestations in methanol-poisoned patients?

PubMed

Pajoumand, Abdolkarim; Zamani, Nasim; Hassanian-Moghaddam, Hossein; Shadnia, Shahin

2017-06-01

We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of Lachance formula and more readily available clinical or laboratory factors (other than serum methanol level) in prediction of the needed time for hemodialysis in methanol-poisoned patients. In a retrospective study, all methanol-poisoned patients referred to us between March 2008 and March 2016 were enrolled. The patients' demographic characteristics, on-arrival vital signs, signs/symptoms, and laboratory tests were evaluated for factors that could prognosticate the dialysis duration. Of 72 patients enrolled, 54 underwent hemodialysis once (group 1) and 18 needed more than one session of hemodialysis (group 2). All were treated by ethanol, bicarbonate, and leucovorin. Lachance formula overestimated the patients in higher methanol levels and underestimated them in lower methanol levels. It properly predicted the needed time for hemodialysis when the methanol level was between 15 and 25 mg/dL. Groups 1 and 2 were different in terms of their ingested alcohol dose (P = 0.001), creatinine (P = 0.02), dyspnea on presentation (P = 0.002), and the place they had been dialyzed (P = 0.013). Dialysis duration significantly correlated with dyspnea on presentation (P = 0.028) and ingested alcohol dose (P = 0.02). After performance of logistic regression analysis, only creatinine was statistically significantly different between the two groups (P = 0.02). Median creatinine levels were 1.3 [1, 6] (0.8-2.7) and 1.4 [1.35, 2.1] (0.8-6.5) in the patients who were dialyzed once and twice, respectively. As a conclusion, creatinine is possibly a readily available test that can predict the appropriate time needed for hemodialysis in methanol-poisoned patients.

Acoustic Tomography in the Canary Basin: Meddies and Tides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dushaw, Brian D.; Gaillard, Fabienne; Terre, Thierry

2017-11-01

An acoustic propagation experiment over 308 km range conducted in the Canary Basin in 1997-1998 was used to assess the ability of ocean acoustic tomography to measure the flux of Mediterranean water and Meddies. Instruments on a mooring adjacent to the acoustic path measured the southwestward passage of a strong Meddy in temperature, salinity, and current. Over 9 months of transmissions, the acoustic arrival pattern was an initial broad stochastic pulse varying in duration by 250-500 ms, followed eight stable, identified-ray arrivals. Small-scale sound speed fluctuations from Mediterranean water parcels littered around the sound channel axis caused acoustic scattering. Internal waves contributed more modest acoustic scattering. Based on simulations, the main effect of a Meddy passing across the acoustic path is the formation of many early-arriving, near-axis rays, but these rays are thoroughly scattered by the small-scale Mediterranean-water fluctuations. A Meddy decreases the deep-turning ray travel times by 10-30 ms. The dominant acoustic signature of a Meddy is therefore the expansion of the width of the initial stochastic pulse. While this signature appears inseparable from the other effects of Mediterranean water in this region, the acoustic time series indicates the steady passage of Mediterranean water across the acoustic path. Tidal variations caused by the mode-1 internal tides were measured by the acoustic travel times. The observed internal tides were partly predicted using a recent global model for such tides derived from satellite altimetry.

Comparison between model predictions and observations of ELF radio atmospherics generated by rocket-triggered lightning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupree, N. A.; Moore, R. C.

2011-12-01

Model predictions of the ELF radio atmospheric generated by rocket-triggered lightning are compared with observations performed at Arrival Heights, Antarctica. The ability to infer source characteristics using observations at great distances may prove to greatly enhance the understanding of lightning processes that are associated with the production of transient luminous events (TLEs) as well as other ionospheric effects associated with lightning. The modeling of the sferic waveform is carried out using a modified version of the Long Wavelength Propagation Capability (LWPC) code developed by the Naval Ocean Systems Center over a period of many years. LWPC is an inherently narrowband propagation code that has been modified to predict the broadband response of the Earth-ionosphere waveguide to an impulsive lightning flash while preserving the ability of LWPC to account for an inhomogeneous waveguide. ELF observations performed at Arrival Heights, Antarctica during rocket-triggered lightning experiments at the International Center for Lightning Research and Testing (ICLRT) located at Camp Blanding, Florida are presented. The lightning current waveforms directly measured at the base of the lightning channel (at the ICLRT) are used together with LWPC to predict the sferic waveform observed at Arrival Heights under various ionospheric conditions. This paper critically compares observations with model predictions.

Shining Light on Quantum Gravity with Pulsar-Black hole Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estes, John; Kavic, Michael; Lippert, Matthew; Simonetti, John H.

2017-03-01

Pulsars are some of the most accurate clocks found in nature, while black holes offer a unique arena for the study of quantum gravity. As such, pulsar-black hole (PSR-BH) binaries provide ideal astrophysical systems for detecting the effects of quantum gravity. With the success of aLIGO and the advent of instruments like SKA and eLISA, the prospects for the discovery of such PSR-BH binaries are very promising. We argue that PSR-BH binaries can serve as ready-made testing grounds for proposed resolutions to the black hole information paradox. We propose using timing signals from a pulsar beam passing through the region near a black hole event horizon as a probe of quantum gravitational effects. In particular, we demonstrate that fluctuations of the geometry outside a black hole lead to an increase in the measured root mean square deviation of the arrival times of pulsar pulses traveling near the horizon. This allows for a clear observational test of the nonviolent nonlocality proposal for black hole information escape. For a series of pulses traversing the near-horizon region, this model predicts an rms in pulse arrival times of ˜ 30 μ {{s}} for a 3{M}⊙ black hole, ˜ 0.3 {ms} for a 30{M}⊙ black hole, and ˜ 40 {{s}} for Sgr A*. The current precision of pulse time-of-arrival measurements is sufficient to discern these rms fluctuations. This work is intended to motivate observational searches for PSR-BH systems as a means of testing models of quantum gravity.

Evaluation of an Airborne Spacing Concept, On-Board Spacing Tool, and Pilot Interface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swieringa, Kurt; Murdoch, Jennifer L.; Baxley, Brian; Hubbs, Clay

2011-01-01

The number of commercial aircraft operations is predicted to increase in the next ten years, creating a need for improved operational efficiency. Two areas believed to offer significant increases in efficiency are optimized profile descents and dependent parallel runway operations. It is envisioned that during both of these types of operations, flight crews will precisely space their aircraft behind preceding aircraft at air traffic control assigned intervals to increase runway throughput and maximize the use of existing infrastructure. This paper describes a human-in-the-loop experiment designed to study the performance of an onboard spacing algorithm and pilots ratings of the usability and acceptability of an airborne spacing concept that supports dependent parallel arrivals. Pilot participants flew arrivals into the Dallas Fort-Worth terminal environment using one of three different simulators located at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Langley Research Center. Scenarios were flown using Interval Management with Spacing (IM-S) and Required Time of Arrival (RTA) control methods during conditions of no error, error in the forecast wind, and offset (disturbance) to the arrival flow. Results indicate that pilots delivered their aircraft to the runway threshold within +/- 3.5 seconds of their assigned arrival time and reported that both the IM-S and RTA procedures were associated with low workload levels. In general, pilots found the IM-S concept, procedures, speeds, and interface acceptable; with 92% of pilots rating the procedures as complete and logical, 218 out of 240 responses agreeing that the IM-S speeds were acceptable, and 63% of pilots reporting that the displays were easy to understand and displayed in appropriate locations. The 22 (out of 240) responses, indicating that the commanded speeds were not acceptable and appropriate occurred during scenarios containing wind error and offset error. Concerns cited included the occurrence of multiple speed changes within a short time period, speed changes required within twenty miles of the runway, and an increase in airspeed followed shortly by a decrease in airspeed. Within this paper, appropriate design recommendations are provided, and the need for continued, iterative human-centered design is discussed.

Delay time between onset of ischemic stroke and hospital arrival.

PubMed

Biller, J; Patrick, J T; Shepard, A; Adams, H P

1993-01-01

Some current experimental protocols for acute ischemic stroke require the initiation of treatment within hours of the onset of stroke symptoms. We prospectively evaluated 30 patients with acute ischemic stroke based on clinical and computed tomography findings. The time between the onset of stroke symptoms and arrival in the emergency room and subsequently on the stroke service was determined. Within 3, 6,12, and 24 h of the onset of stroke symptoms, 16 (53%), 19 (63%), 22 (73%), and 25 (83%) patients had arrived at the emergency room and 0 (0%), 4 (13%), 14 (47%), and 22 (73%) of them on the stroke service, respectively. From the onset of stroke symptoms, the mean arrival time to the emergency room was 24 h (range, 30 min to 144 h) and to the stroke service was 61 h (range, 4-150 h). The mean time between arrival in the emergency room and stroke service was 8.6 h (range, 0-47 h). Even though 53% and 63% of our patients arrived at the emergency room within 3 and 6 h of the onset of stroke symptoms, only 0% and 13% of them arrived on the stroke service within the same time period for the initiation of treatment, respectively. Thus, in order for more patients to qualify for current experimental protocols, they must arrive on the stroke service more quickly or treatment must be initiated in the emergency room. Copyright © 1993. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Predicting how altering propagule pressure changes establishment rates of biological invaders across species pools

Treesearch

Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Mark Kimberley; Andrew M. Liebhold; Robert A. Haack; Joseph F. Cavey

2014-01-01

Biological invasions resulting from international trade can cause major environmental and economic impacts. Propagule pressure is perhaps the most important factor influencing establishment, although actual arrival rates of species are rarely recorded. Furthermore, the pool of potential invaders includes many species that vary in their arrival rate and establishment...

Developmental and Behavioral Performance of Internationally Adopted Preschoolers: A Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacobs, Emma; Miller, Laurie C.; Tirella, Linda G.

2010-01-01

Most international adoptees (IA) have rapid catch-up of the delays common at arrival. However, it is not known whether development at arrival predicts later abilities or school readiness. Therefore, we comprehensively evaluated language, fine motor, visual reception (VR), executive function (EF), attention (ATT), and sensory skills (SS) in IA…

Application of a deconvolution method for identifying burst amplitudes and arrival times in Alcator C-Mod far SOL plasma fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theodorsen, Audun; Garcia, Odd Erik; Kube, Ralph; Labombard, Brian; Terry, Jim

2017-10-01

In the far scrape-off layer (SOL), radial motion of filamentary structures leads to excess transport of particles and heat. Amplitudes and arrival times of these filaments have previously been studied by conditional averaging in single-point measurements from Langmuir Probes and Gas Puff Imaging (GPI). Conditional averaging can be problematic: the cutoff for large amplitudes is mostly chosen by convention; the conditional windows used may influence the arrival time distribution; and the amplitudes cannot be separated from a background. Previous work has shown that SOL fluctuations are well described by a stochastic model consisting of a super-position of pulses with fixed shape and randomly distributed amplitudes and arrival times. The model can be formulated as a pulse shape convolved with a train of delta pulses. By choosing a pulse shape consistent with the power spectrum of the fluctuation time series, Richardson-Lucy deconvolution can be used to recover the underlying amplitudes and arrival times of the delta pulses. We apply this technique to both L and H-mode GPI data from the Alcator C-Mod tokamak. The pulse arrival times are shown to be uncorrelated and uniformly distributed, consistent with a Poisson process, and the amplitude distribution has an exponential tail.

Does the arrival index predict physiological stress reactivity in children.

PubMed

de Veld, Danielle M J; Riksen-Walraven, J Marianne; de Weerth, Carolina

2014-09-01

Knowledge about children's stress reactivity and its correlates is mostly based on one stress task, making it hard to assess the generalizability of the results. The development of an additional stress paradigm for children, that also limits stress exposure and test time, could greatly advance this field of research. Research in adults may provide a starting point for the development of such an additional stress paradigm, as changes in salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase (sAA) over a 1-h pre-stress period in the laboratory correlated strongly with subsequent reactivity to stress task (Balodis et al., 2010, Psychoneuroendocrinology 35:1363-73). The present study examined whether such strong correlations could be replicated in 9- to 11-year-old children. Cortisol and sAA samples were collected from 158 children (83 girls) during a 2.5-h visit to the laboratory. This visit included a 1-h pre-stress period in which children performed some non-stressful tasks and relaxed before taking part in a psychosocial stress task (TSST-C). A higher cortisol arrival index was significantly and weakly correlated with a higher AUCg but unrelated to cortisol reactivity to the stressor. A higher sAA arrival index was significantly and moderately related to lower stress reactivity and to a lower AUCi. Children's personality and emotion regulation variables were unrelated to the cortisol and sAA arrival indices. The results of this study do not provide a basis for the development of an additional stress paradigm for children. Further replications in children and adults are needed to clarify the potential meaning of an arrival index.

Analyzing Double Delays at Newark Liberty International Airport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Antony D.; Lee, Paul

2016-01-01

When weather or congestion impacts the National Airspace System, multiple different Traffic Management Initiatives can be implemented, sometimes with unintended consequences. One particular inefficiency that is commonly identified is in the interaction between Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and time based metering of internal departures, or TMA scheduling. Internal departures under TMA scheduling can take large GDP delays, followed by large TMA scheduling delays, because they cannot be easily fitted into the overhead stream. In this paper we examine the causes of these double delays through an analysis of arrival operations at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) from June to August 2010. Depending on how the double delay is defined between 0.3 percent and 0.8 percent of arrivals at EWR experienced double delays in this period. However, this represents between 21 percent and 62 percent of all internal departures in GDP and TMA scheduling. A deep dive into the data reveals that two causes of high internal departure scheduling delays are upstream flights making up time between their estimated departure clearance times (EDCTs) and entry into time based metering, which undermines the sequencing and spacing underlying the flight EDCTs, and high demand on TMA, when TMA airborne metering delays are high. Data mining methods (currently) including logistic regression, support vector machines and K-nearest neighbors are used to predict the occurrence of double delays and high internal departure scheduling delays with accuracies up to 0.68. So far, key indicators of double delay and high internal departure scheduling delay are TMA virtual runway queue size, and the degree to which estimated runway demand based on TMA estimated times of arrival has changed relative to the estimated runway demand based on EDCTs. However, more analysis is needed to confirm this.

The Influence of Pickup Protons, from Interstellar Neutral Hydrogen, on the Propagation of Interplanetary Shocks from the Halloween 2003 Solar Events to ACE and Ulysses: A 3-D MHD Modeling Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Detman, T. R.; Intriligator, D. S.; Dryer, M.; Sun, W.; Deehr, C. S.; Intriligator, J.

2012-01-01

We describe our 3-D, time ]dependent, MHD solar wind model that we recently modified to include the physics of pickup protons from interstellar neutral hydrogen. The model has a time-dependent lower boundary condition, at 0.1 AU, that is driven by source surface map files through an empirical interface module. We describe the empirical interface and its parameter tuning to maximize model agreement with background (quiet) solar wind observations at ACE. We then give results of a simulation study of the famous Halloween 2003 series of solar events. We began with shock inputs from the Fearless Forecast real ]time shock arrival prediction study, and then we iteratively adjusted input shock speeds to obtain agreement between observed and simulated shock arrival times at ACE. We then extended the model grid to 5.5 AU and compared those simulation results with Ulysses observations at 5.2 AU. Next we undertook the more difficult tuning of shock speeds and locations to get matching shock arrival times at both ACE and Ulysses. Then we ran this last case again with neutral hydrogen density set to zero, to identify the effect of pickup ions. We show that the speed of interplanetary shocks propagating from the Sun to Ulysses is reduced by the effects of pickup protons. We plan to make further improvements to the model as we continue our benchmarking process to 10 AU, comparing our results with Cassini observations, and eventually on to 100 AU, comparing our results with Voyager 1 and 2 observations.

Understanding Shock Dynamics in the Inner Heliosphere with Modeling and Type II Radio Data: the 2010-04-03 Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xie, Hong Na; Odstrcil, Dusan; Mays, L.; Cyr, O. C. St.; Gopalswamy, N.; Cremades, H.

2012-01-01

The 2010 April 03 solar event was studied using observations from STEREO SECCHI, SOHO LASCO, and Wind kilometric Type II data (kmTII) combined with WSA-Cone-ENLIL model simulations performed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). In particular, we identified the origin of the coronal mass ejection (CME) using STEREO EUVI and SOHO EIT images. A flux-rope model was fit to the SECCHI A and B, and LASCO images to determine the CMEs direction, size, and actual speed. J-maps from STEREO COR2HI-1HI-2 and simulations fromCCMC were used to study the formation and evolution of the shock in the inner heliosphere. In addition, we also studied the time-distance profile of the shock propagation from kmTII radio burst observations. The J-maps together with in-situ datafrom the Wind spacecraft provided an opportunity to validate the simulation results andthe kmTII prediction. Here we report on a comparison of two methods of predictinginterplanetary shock arrival time: the ENLIL model and the kmTII method; andinvestigate whether or not using the ENLIL model density improves the kmTIIprediction. We found that the ENLIL model predicted the kinematics of shock evolutionwell. The shock arrival times (SAT) and linear-fit shock velocities in the ENLILmodel agreed well with those measurements in the J-maps along both the CME leading edge and the Sun-Earth line. The ENLIL model also reproduced most of the largescale structures of the shock propagation and gave the SAT prediction at Earth with an error of 17 hours. The kmTII method predicted the SAT at Earth with an error of 15 hours when using n0 4.16 cm3, the ENLIL model plasma density near Earth; but itimproved to 2 hours when using n0 6.64 cm3, the model density near the CMEleading edge at 1 AU.

Multimode seismoelectric phenomena generated using explosive and vibroseis sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, Karl E.; Kulessa, Bernd; Pugin, André J.-M.

2018-05-01

A field trial of seismoelectric surveying was carried out at a site underlain by 20 m of water-saturated clayey Champlain Sea sediments, renowned for their amenability to high resolution imaging by seismic reflection surveys. Seismically induced electrokinetic effects were recorded using an array of 26 grounded dipole electric field antennas, and two different seismic sources including an eight-gauge shotgun, and a moderate power (10 000 lb Minivib) vibrator. Despite the high electrical conductivity of the sediments, shot records show evidence of possible interfacial seismoelectric conversions caused by the arrival of P-waves at the base of the clay/top of bedrock and at the top of a layer of elevated porosity and conductivity within the clay at 7 m depth. However, the data are more remarkable for the fact that P-wave, S-wave, and PS/SP converted wave reflections evident in the seismic records all give rise to electrical arrivals exhibiting very similar moveout patterns in the seismoelectric records. Superficially, these electrical responses could be misinterpreted as simple coseismic seismoelectric effects associated with the arrival of reflected seismic waves at each dipole antenna on surface. However, their broader bandwidth, superior coherency and earlier arrival times compared to their corresponding seismic arrivals indicate that the electrical effects are generated by the arrival of seismic reflections below each dipole at the shallow intraclay interface 7 m below surface. Such quasi-coseismic arrivals have recently been predicted by full-waveform seismoelectric modelling and characterized as evanescent electromagnetic (EM) waves. In retrospect, they were also observed in earlier seismoelectric field trials, but not measured as clearly nor recognized as a distinct seismoelectric mode intermediate between interfacial and coseismic effects. We propose that the observed quasi-coseismic effect can be understood physically as a fringing field emanating from the travelling charge separation associated with a P-wave (direct or mode-converted) crossing a subsurface interface at an oblique angle. Such effects may be nearly indistinguishable from coseismic effects if the interface depth is small compared to the seismic wavelength, but recognition of the phenomenon contributes to an improved understanding of the seismoelectric wavefield, and will lead to improved interpretations. From a practical standpoint, the results of this field trial suggest that using electric field receivers to supplement geophones on surface could yield significantly higher resolution seismic reflection images in those areas where suitable near-surface layers exist for the generation of quasi-coseismic effects. The results also reinforce the importance of using multichannel recording to allow interfacial seismoelectric conversions originating at depth to be distinguished from stronger coseismic and quasi-coseismic arrivals originating in the near-surface by measurement of their arrival time versus offset (moveout) and amplitude versus offset behaviours.

VANDENBERG AFB, CALIF. - The first stage of the Delta II launch vehicle for the Gravity Probe B experiment arrives at Space Launch Complex 2, Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. The Gravity Probe B will launch a payload of four gyroscopes into low-Earth polar orbit to test two extraordinary predictions of Albert Einstein’s general theory of relativity: the geodetic effect (how space and time are warped by the presence of the Earth) and frame dragging (how Earth’s rotation drags space and time around with it). Once in orbit, for 18 months each gyroscope’s spin axis will be monitored as it travels through local spacetime, observing and measuring these effects. The experiment was developed by Stanford University, Lockheed Martin and NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center. The targeted launch date is Dec. 6, 2003.

NASA Image and Video Library

2003-09-15

VANDENBERG AFB, CALIF. - The first stage of the Delta II launch vehicle for the Gravity Probe B experiment arrives at Space Launch Complex 2, Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. The Gravity Probe B will launch a payload of four gyroscopes into low-Earth polar orbit to test two extraordinary predictions of Albert Einstein’s general theory of relativity: the geodetic effect (how space and time are warped by the presence of the Earth) and frame dragging (how Earth’s rotation drags space and time around with it). Once in orbit, for 18 months each gyroscope’s spin axis will be monitored as it travels through local spacetime, observing and measuring these effects. The experiment was developed by Stanford University, Lockheed Martin and NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center. The targeted launch date is Dec. 6, 2003.

Numerical Upscaling of Solute Transport in Fractured Porous Media Based on Flow Aligned Blocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leube, P.; Nowak, W.; Sanchez-Vila, X.

2013-12-01

High-contrast or fractured-porous media (FPM) pose one of the largest unresolved challenges for simulating large hydrogeological systems. The high contrast in advective transport between fast conduits and low-permeability rock matrix, including complex mass transfer processes, leads to the typical complex characteristics of early bulk arrivals and long tailings. Adequate direct representation of FPM requires enormous numerical resolutions. For large scales, e.g. the catchment scale, and when allowing for uncertainty in the fracture network architecture or in matrix properties, computational costs quickly reach an intractable level. In such cases, multi-scale simulation techniques have become useful tools. They allow decreasing the complexity of models by aggregating and transferring their parameters to coarser scales and so drastically reduce the computational costs. However, these advantages come at a loss of detail and accuracy. In this work, we develop and test a new multi-scale or upscaled modeling approach based on block upscaling. The novelty is that individual blocks are defined by and aligned with the local flow coordinates. We choose a multi-rate mass transfer (MRMT) model to represent the remaining sub-block non-Fickian behavior within these blocks on the coarse scale. To make the scale transition simple and to save computational costs, we capture sub-block features by temporal moments (TM) of block-wise particle arrival times to be matched with the MRMT model. By predicting spatial mass distributions of injected tracers in a synthetic test scenario, our coarse-scale solution matches reasonably well with the corresponding fine-scale reference solution. For predicting higher TM-orders (such as arrival time and effective dispersion), the prediction accuracy steadily decreases. This is compensated to some extent by the MRMT model. If the MRMT model becomes too complex, it loses its effect. We also found that prediction accuracy is sensitive to the choice of the effective dispersion coefficients and on the block resolution. A key advantage of the flow-aligned blocks is that the small-scale velocity field is reproduced quite accurately on the block-scale through their flow alignment. Thus, the block-scale transverse dispersivities remain in the similar magnitude as local ones, and they do not have to represent macroscopic uncertainty. Also, the flow-aligned blocks minimize numerical dispersion when solving the large-scale transport problem.

Estimation of the Arrival Time and Duration of a Radio Signal with Unknown Amplitude and Initial Phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trifonov, A. P.; Korchagin, Yu. E.; Korol'kov, S. V.

2018-05-01

We synthesize the quasi-likelihood, maximum-likelihood, and quasioptimal algorithms for estimating the arrival time and duration of a radio signal with unknown amplitude and initial phase. The discrepancies between the hardware and software realizations of the estimation algorithm are shown. The characteristics of the synthesized-algorithm operation efficiency are obtained. Asymptotic expressions for the biases, variances, and the correlation coefficient of the arrival-time and duration estimates, which hold true for large signal-to-noise ratios, are derived. The accuracy losses of the estimates of the radio-signal arrival time and duration because of the a priori ignorance of the amplitude and initial phase are determined.

Pseudorange error analysis for precise indoor positioning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pola, Marek; Bezoušek, Pavel

2017-05-01

There is a currently developed system of a transmitter indoor localization intended for fire fighters or members of rescue corps. In this system the transmitter of an ultra-wideband orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing signal position is determined by the time difference of arrival method. The position measurement accuracy highly depends on the directpath signal time of arrival estimation accuracy which is degraded by severe multipath in complicated environments such as buildings. The aim of this article is to assess errors in the direct-path signal time of arrival determination caused by multipath signal propagation and noise. Two methods of the direct-path signal time of arrival estimation are compared here: the cross correlation method and the spectral estimation method.

Estimated time of arrival and debiasing the time saving bias.

PubMed

Eriksson, Gabriella; Patten, Christopher J D; Svenson, Ola; Eriksson, Lars

2015-01-01

The time saving bias predicts that the time saved when increasing speed from a high speed is overestimated, and underestimated when increasing speed from a slow speed. In a questionnaire, time saving judgements were investigated when information of estimated time to arrival was provided. In an active driving task, an alternative meter indicating the inverted speed was used to debias judgements. The simulated task was to first drive a distance at a given speed, and then drive the same distance again at the speed the driver judged was required to gain exactly 3 min in travel time compared with the first drive. A control group performed the same task with a speedometer and saved less than the targeted 3 min when increasing speed from a high speed, and more than 3 min when increasing from a low speed. Participants in the alternative meter condition were closer to the target. The two studies corroborate a time saving bias and show that biased intuitive judgements can be debiased by displaying the inverted speed. Practitioner Summary: Previous studies have shown a cognitive bias in judgements of the time saved by increasing speed. This simulator study aims to improve driver judgements by introducing a speedometer indicating the inverted speed in active driving. The results show that the bias can be reduced by presenting the inverted speed and this finding can be used when designing in-car information systems.

The Effect of Ongoing Exposure Dynamics in Dose Response Relationships

PubMed Central

Pujol, Josep M.; Eisenberg, Joseph E.; Haas, Charles N.; Koopman, James S.

2009-01-01

Characterizing infectivity as a function of pathogen dose is integral to microbial risk assessment. Dose-response experiments usually administer doses to subjects at one time. Phenomenological models of the resulting data, such as the exponential and the Beta-Poisson models, ignore dose timing and assume independent risks from each pathogen. Real world exposure to pathogens, however, is a sequence of discrete events where concurrent or prior pathogen arrival affects the capacity of immune effectors to engage and kill newly arriving pathogens. We model immune effector and pathogen interactions during the period before infection becomes established in order to capture the dynamics generating dose timing effects. Model analysis reveals an inverse relationship between the time over which exposures accumulate and the risk of infection. Data from one time dose experiments will thus overestimate per pathogen infection risks of real world exposures. For instance, fitting our model to one time dosing data reveals a risk of 0.66 from 313 Cryptosporidium parvum pathogens. When the temporal exposure window is increased 100-fold using the same parameters fitted by our model to the one time dose data, the risk of infection is reduced to 0.09. Confirmation of this risk prediction requires data from experiments administering doses with different timings. Our model demonstrates that dose timing could markedly alter the risks generated by airborne versus fomite transmitted pathogens. PMID:19503605

Geological entropy and solute transport in heterogeneous porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianchi, Marco; Pedretti, Daniele

2017-06-01

We propose a novel approach to link solute transport behavior to the physical heterogeneity of the aquifer, which we fully characterize with two measurable parameters: the variance of the log K values (σY2), and a new indicator (HR) that integrates multiple properties of the K field into a global measure of spatial disorder or geological entropy. From the results of a detailed numerical experiment considering solute transport in K fields representing realistic distributions of hydrofacies in alluvial aquifers, we identify empirical relationship between the two parameters and the first three central moments of the distributions of arrival times of solute particles at a selected control plane. The analysis of experimental data indicates that the mean and the variance of the solutes arrival times tend to increase with spatial disorder (i.e., HR increasing), while highly skewed distributions are observed in more orderly structures (i.e., HR decreasing) or at higher σY2. We found that simple closed-form empirical expressions of the bivariate dependency of skewness on HR and σY2 can be used to predict the emergence of non-Fickian transport in K fields considering a range of structures and heterogeneity levels, some of which based on documented real aquifers. The accuracy of these predictions and in general the results from this study indicate that a description of the global variability and structure of the K field in terms of variance and geological entropy offers a valid and broadly applicable approach for the interpretation and prediction of transport in heterogeneous porous media.

Station Correction Uncertainty in Multiple Event Location Algorithms and the Effect on Error Ellipses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erickson, Jason P.; Carlson, Deborah K.; Ortiz, Anne

Accurate location of seismic events is crucial for nuclear explosion monitoring. There are several sources of error in seismic location that must be taken into account to obtain high confidence results. Most location techniques account for uncertainties in the phase arrival times (measurement error) and the bias of the velocity model (model error), but they do not account for the uncertainty of the velocity model bias. By determining and incorporating this uncertainty in the location algorithm we seek to improve the accuracy of the calculated locations and uncertainty ellipses. In order to correct for deficiencies in the velocity model, itmore » is necessary to apply station specific corrections to the predicted arrival times. Both master event and multiple event location techniques assume that the station corrections are known perfectly, when in reality there is an uncertainty associated with these corrections. For multiple event location algorithms that calculate station corrections as part of the inversion, it is possible to determine the variance of the corrections. The variance can then be used to weight the arrivals associated with each station, thereby giving more influence to stations with consistent corrections. We have modified an existing multiple event location program (based on PMEL, Pavlis and Booker, 1983). We are exploring weighting arrivals with the inverse of the station correction standard deviation as well using the conditional probability of the calculated station corrections. This is in addition to the weighting already given to the measurement and modeling error terms. We re-locate a group of mining explosions that occurred at Black Thunder, Wyoming, and compare the results to those generated without accounting for station correction uncertainty.« less

Predictors of Death in Trauma Patients who are Alive on Arrival at Hospital.

PubMed

Lichtveld, Rob A; Panhuizen, Ivo F; Smit, Ronald B J; Holtslag, Hermann R; van der Werken, Christian

2007-02-01

To determine which factors predict death occurring in trauma patients who are alive on arrival at hospital Design Prospective cohort study Method Data were collected from 507 trauma patients with multiple injuries, with a Hospital Trauma Index-Injury Severity Score of 16 or more, who were initially delivered by the Emergency Medical Services to the Emergency Department of the University Medical Centre Utrecht (UMCU) during the period 1999-2000. Univariate analysis showed that every year of age increase resulted in a 2% greater risk of death. If the patient had been intubated at the scene of the accident, this risk was increased 4.3-fold. Every point of increase in the Triage Revised Trauma Score (T-RTS) reduced the risk of death by 30%. A similar (but inverse) tendency was found for the HTI-ISS score, with every point of increase resulting in a 5% greater risk of death. There was a clear relationship between the base excess (BE) and hemoglobin (Hb) levels and the risk of death, the latter being increased by 8% for each mmol/l drop in BE, and reduced by 22% for each mmol/l increase in Hb. The risk of death occurring was 2.6 times higher in cases with isolated neurotrauma. These associations hardly changed in the multivariate analysis; only the relation with having been intubated at the scene disappeared. The risk of severely injured accident patients dying after arriving in hospital is mainly determined by the T-RTS, age, presence of isolated neurological damage, BE and Hb level. Skull/brain damage and hemorrhage appear to be the most important causes of death in the first 24 h after the accident. The time interval between the accident and arrival at the hospital does not appear to affect the risk of death.

ActiveSeismoPick3D - automatic first arrival determination for large active seismic arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paffrath, Marcel; Küperkoch, Ludger; Wehling-Benatelli, Sebastian; Friederich, Wolfgang

2016-04-01

We developed a tool for automatic determination of first arrivals in active seismic data based on an approach, that utilises higher order statistics (HOS) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC), commonly used in seismology, but not in active seismics. Automatic picking is highly desirable in active seismics as the number of data provided by large seismic arrays rapidly exceeds of what an analyst can evaluate in a reasonable amount of time. To bring the functionality of automatic phase picking into the context of active data, the software package ActiveSeismoPick3D was developed in Python. It uses a modified algorithm for the determination of first arrivals which searches for the HOS maximum in unfiltered data. Additionally, it offers tools for manual quality control and postprocessing, e.g. various visualisation and repicking functionalities. For flexibility, the tool also includes methods for the preparation of geometry information of large seismic arrays and improved interfaces to the Fast Marching Tomography Package (FMTOMO), which can be used for the prediction of travel times and inversion for subsurface properties. Output files are generated in the VTK format, allowing the 3D visualization of e.g. the inversion results. As a test case, a data set consisting of 9216 traces from 64 shots was gathered, recorded at 144 receivers deployed in a regular 2D array of a size of 100 x 100 m. ActiveSeismoPick3D automatically checks the determined first arrivals by a dynamic signal to noise ratio threshold. From the data a 3D model of the subsurface was generated using the export functionality of the package and FMTOMO.

Source localization of narrow band signals in multipath environments, with application to marine mammals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valtierra, Robert Daniel

Passive acoustic localization has benefited from many major developments and has become an increasingly important focus point in marine mammal research. Several challenges still remain. This work seeks to address several of these challenges such as tracking the calling depths of baleen whales. In this work, data from an array of widely spaced Marine Acoustic Recording Units (MARUs) was used to achieve three dimensional localization by combining the methods Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA) and Direct-Reflected Time Difference of Arrival (DRTD) along with a newly developed autocorrelation technique. TDOA was applied to data for two dimensional (latitude and longitude) localization and depth was resolved using DRTD. Previously, DRTD had been limited to pulsed broadband signals, such as sperm whale or dolphin echolocation, where individual direct and reflected signals are separated in time. Due to the length of typical baleen whale vocalizations, individual multipath signal arrivals can overlap making time differences of arrival difficult to resolve. This problem can be solved using an autocorrelation, which can extract reflection information from overlapping signals. To establish this technique, a derivation was made to model the autocorrelation of a direct signal and its overlapping reflection. The model was exploited to derive performance limits allowing for prediction of the minimum resolvable direct-reflected time difference for a known signal type. The dependence on signal parameters (sweep rate, call duration) was also investigated. The model was then verified using both recorded and simulated data from two analysis cases for North Atlantic right whales (NARWs, Eubalaena glacialis) and humpback whales (Megaptera noveaengliae). The newly developed autocorrelation technique was then combined with DRTD and tested using data from playback transmissions to localize an acoustic transducer at a known depth and location. The combined DRTD-autocorrelation methods enabled calling depth and range estimations of a vocalizing NARW and humpback whale in two separate cases. The DRTD-autocorrelation method was then combined with TDOA to create a three dimensional track of a NARW in the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary. Results from these experiments illustrated the potential of the combined methods to successfully resolve baleen calling depths in three dimensions.

Direction of Arrival Studies of Medium Frequency Burst Radio Emissions at Toolik Lake, AK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunch, N.; Labelle, J.; Weatherwax, A.; Lummerzheim, D.; Stenbaek-Nielsen, H.

2008-05-01

MF burst is an impulsive radio emission of auroral origin, which can be detected by ground-based instruments at frequencies between 1,300 and 4,500kHz. MF burst has been shown to be associated with substorm onset, but its exact generation mechanism remains unknown, although it is thought to arise from mode conversion radiation [see review by LaBelle and Treumann, 2002] . In search of the generation mechanism of this emission, Dartmouth College has deployed radio interferometers in Alaska, Northern Canada, Greenland, and Antarctica, including a three-element interferometer deployed to Toolik Field Station in Alaska during the summer of 2006. This instrument measured spectra, amplitudes and directions of arrival (DOA's) of over 47 MF burst events between November 30, 2006 and May 26, 2007. These data represent the first DOA measurements of impulsive MF burst, of which selected case studies were presented at the Fall 2007 AGU conference. Here we present a statistical survey of all 47 events as well as detailed analysis of three events occurring on: Mar 5, Mar 23, and Nov 20, 2007. For the statistical survey, we present distributions of DOA as a function of local time and frequency. In each case study we analyze the direction of arrival of the emissions as a function of both time and frequency within each event. The time variations will be compared with the time variations of optical auroral forms simultaneously measured with all-sky cameras. The dependence of the arrival direction on frequency enables a significant test of the generation mechanism whereby the waves are emitted at the local plasma or upper hybrid frequency in the topside ionosphere, predicting that higher frequencies should originate at lower altitudes. These three events have been selected because All-Sky camera data are available at these times from Toolik Lake and Fort Yukon, Alaska. These are critical both for identifying which optical features are associated with the radio emissions as well as for constraining the electron density profiles used for ray tracing. Ray tracing is a critical tool for this study, and several alternative models will be used in order to understand the uncertainty in these events.

Modelling and mitigating refractive propagation effects in precision pulsar timing observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shannon, R. M.; Cordes, J. M.

2017-01-01

To obtain the most accurate pulse arrival times from radio pulsars, it is necessary to correct or mitigate the effects of the propagation of radio waves through the warm and ionized interstellar medium. We examine both the strength of propagation effects associated with large-scale electron-density variations and the methodology used to estimate infinite frequency arrival times. Using simulations of two-dimensional phase-varying screens, we assess the strength and non-stationarity of timing perturbations associated with large-scale density variations. We identify additional contributions to arrival times that are stochastic in both radio frequency and time and therefore not amenable to correction solely using times of arrival. We attribute this to the frequency dependence of the trajectories of the propagating radio waves. We find that this limits the efficacy of low-frequency (metre-wavelength) observations. Incorporating low-frequency pulsar observations into precision timing campaigns is increasingly problematic for pulsars with larger dispersion measures.

Understanding the evolution and propagation of coronal mass ejections and associated plasma sheaths in interplanetary space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, Phillip

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is an eruption of magnetized plasma from the Coronaof the Sun. Understanding the physical process of CMEs is a fundamental challenge in solarphysics, and is also of increasing importance for our technological society. CMEs are knownthe main driver of space weather that has adverse effects on satellites, power grids, com-munication and navigation systems and astronauts. Understanding and predicting CMEs is still in the early stage of research. In this dissertation, improved observational methods and advanced theoretical analysis are used to study CMEs. Unlike many studies in the past that treat CMEs as a single object, this study divides aCME into two separate components: the ejecta from the corona and the sheath region thatis the ambient plasma compressed by the shock/wave running ahead of the ejecta; bothstructures are geo-effective but evolve differently. Stereoscopic observations from multiplespacecraft, including STEREO and SOHO, are combined to provide a three-dimensionalgeometric reconstruction of the structures studied. True distances and velocities of CMEs are accurately determined, free of projection effects, and with continuous tracking from the low corona to 1 AU.To understand the kinematic evolution of CMEs, an advanced drag-based model (DBM) is proposed, with several improvements to the original DBM model. The new model varies the drag parameter with distance; the variation is constrained by thenecessary conservation of physical parameters. Second, the deviation of CME-nose from the Sun-Earth-line is taken into account. Third, the geometric correction of the shape of the ejecta front is considered, based on the assumption that the true front is a flattened croissant-shaped flux rope front. These improvements of the DBM model provide a framework for using measurement data to make accurate prediction of the arrival times of CME ejecta and sheaths. Using a set of seven events to test the model, it is found that the evolution of the ejecta front can be accurately predicted, with a slightly poorer performance on the sheath front. To improve the sheath prediction, the standoff-distance between the ejecta and the sheath front is used to model the evolution. The predicted arrivals of both the sheath and ejecta fronts at Earth are determined to within an average 3.5 hours and 1.5 hours of observed arrivals,respectively. These prediction errors show a significant improvement over predictions made by other researches. The results of this dissertation study demonstrate that accurate space weather prediction is possible, and also reveals what observations are needed in the future for realistic operational space weather prediction.

A comprehensive review of prehospital and in-hospital delay times in acute stroke care.

PubMed

Evenson, K R; Foraker, R E; Morris, D L; Rosamond, W D

2009-06-01

The purpose of this study was to systematically review and summarize prehospital and in-hospital stroke evaluation and treatment delay times. We identified 123 unique peer-reviewed studies published from 1981 to 2007 of prehospital and in-hospital delay time for evaluation and treatment of patients with stroke, transient ischemic attack, or stroke-like symptoms. Based on studies of 65 different population groups, the weighted Poisson regression indicated a 6.0% annual decline (P<0.001) in hours/year for prehospital delay, defined from symptom onset to emergency department arrival. For in-hospital delay, the weighted Poisson regression models indicated no meaningful changes in delay time from emergency department arrival to emergency department evaluation (3.1%, P=0.49 based on 12 population groups). There was a 10.2% annual decline in hours/year from emergency department arrival to neurology evaluation or notification (P=0.23 based on 16 population groups) and a 10.7% annual decline in hours/year for delay time from emergency department arrival to initiation of computed tomography (P=0.11 based on 23 population groups). Only one study reported on times from arrival to computed tomography scan interpretation, two studies on arrival to drug administration, and no studies on arrival to transfer to an in-patient setting, precluding generalizations. Prehospital delay continues to contribute the largest proportion of delay time. The next decade provides opportunities to establish more effective community-based interventions worldwide. It will be crucial to have effective stroke surveillance systems in place to better understand and improve both prehospital and in-hospital delays for acute stroke care.

Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

DOE PAGES

Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; ...

2015-03-15

We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapiesmore » is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.« less

Towards a Science of Tumor Forecasting for Clinical Oncology

PubMed Central

Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

2015-01-01

We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is- only assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of atreatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful methodology towards tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time. PMID:25592148

Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology.

PubMed

Yankeelov, Thomas E; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin C

2015-03-15

We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

Real-time prediction of the occurrence of GLE events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Núñez, Marlon; Reyes-Santiago, Pedro J.; Malandraki, Olga E.

2017-07-01

A tool for predicting the occurrence of Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events using the UMASEP scheme is presented. This real-time tool, called HESPERIA UMASEP-500, is based on the detection of the magnetic connection, along which protons arrive in the near-Earth environment, by estimating the lag correlation between the time derivatives of 1 min soft X-ray flux (SXR) and 1 min near-Earth proton fluxes observed by the GOES satellites. Unlike current GLE warning systems, this tool can predict GLE events before the detection by any neutron monitor (NM) station. The prediction performance measured for the period from 1986 to 2016 is presented for two consecutive periods, because of their notable difference in performance. For the 2000-2016 period, this prediction tool obtained a probability of detection (POD) of 53.8% (7 of 13 GLE events), a false alarm ratio (FAR) of 30.0%, and average warning times (AWT) of 8 min with respect to the first NM station's alert and 15 min to the GLE Alert Plus's warning. We have tested the model by replacing the GOES proton data with SOHO/EPHIN proton data, and the results are similar in terms of POD, FAR, and AWT for the same period. The paper also presents a comparison with a GLE warning system.

Identifying and Correcting Timing Errors at Seismic Stations in and around Iran

DOE PAGES

Syracuse, Ellen Marie; Phillips, William Scott; Maceira, Monica; ...

2017-09-06

A fundamental component of seismic research is the use of phase arrival times, which are central to event location, Earth model development, and phase identification, as well as derived products. Hence, the accuracy of arrival times is crucial. However, errors in the timing of seismic waveforms and the arrival times based on them may go unidentified by the end user, particularly when seismic data are shared between different organizations. Here, we present a method used to analyze travel-time residuals for stations in and around Iran to identify time periods that are likely to contain station timing problems. For the 14more » stations with the strongest evidence of timing errors lasting one month or longer, timing corrections are proposed to address the problematic time periods. Finally, two additional stations are identified with incorrect locations in the International Registry of Seismograph Stations, and one is found to have erroneously reported arrival times in 2011.« less

Value of shear wave arrival time contour display in shear wave elastography for breast masses diagnosis.

PubMed

Zhou, Bang-Guo; Wang, Dan; Ren, Wei-Wei; Li, Xiao-Long; He, Ya-Ping; Liu, Bo-Ji; Wang, Qiao; Chen, Shi-Gao; Alizad, Azra; Xu, Hui-Xiong

2017-08-01

To evaluate the diagnostic performance of shear wave arrival time contour (SWATC) display for the diagnosis of breast lesions and to identify factors associated with the quality of shear wave propagation (QSWP) in breast lesions. This study included 277 pathologically confirmed breast lesions. Conventional B-mode ultrasound characteristics and shear wave elastography parameters were computed. Using the SWATC display, the QSWP of each lesion was assigned to a two-point scale: score 1 (low quality) and score 2 (high quality). Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with QSWP. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for QSWP to differentiate benign from malignant lesions was 0.913, with a sensitivity of 91.9%, a specificity of 90.7%, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 74.0%, and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 97.5%. Compared with using the standard deviation of shear wave speed (SWS SD ) alone, SWS SD combined with QSWP increased the sensitivity from 75.8% to 93.5%, but decreased the specificity from 95.8% to 89.3% (P < 0.05). SWS SD was identified to be the strongest factor associated with the QSWP, followed by tumor malignancy and the depth of the lesion. In conclusion, SWATC display may be useful for characterization of breast lesions.

Identify source location and release time for pollutants undergoing super-diffusion and decay: Parameter analysis and model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yong; Sun, HongGuang; Lu, Bingqing; Garrard, Rhiannon; Neupauer, Roseanna M.

2017-09-01

Backward models have been applied for four decades by hydrologists to identify the source of pollutants undergoing Fickian diffusion, while analytical tools are not available for source identification of super-diffusive pollutants undergoing decay. This technical note evaluates analytical solutions for the source location and release time of a decaying contaminant undergoing super-diffusion using backward probability density functions (PDFs), where the forward model is the space fractional advection-dispersion equation with decay. Revisit of the well-known MADE-2 tracer test using parameter analysis shows that the peak backward location PDF can predict the tritium source location, while the peak backward travel time PDF underestimates the tracer release time due to the early arrival of tracer particles at the detection well in the maximally skewed, super-diffusive transport. In addition, the first-order decay adds additional skewness toward earlier arrival times in backward travel time PDFs, resulting in a younger release time, although this impact is minimized at the MADE-2 site due to tritium's half-life being relatively longer than the monitoring period. The main conclusion is that, while non-trivial backward techniques are required to identify pollutant source location, the pollutant release time can and should be directly estimated given the speed of the peak resident concentration for super-diffusive pollutants with or without decay.

Predicting emergency department volume using forecasting methods to create a "surge response" for noncrisis events.

PubMed

Chase, Valerie J; Cohn, Amy E M; Peterson, Timothy A; Lavieri, Mariel S

2012-05-01

This study investigated whether emergency department (ED) variables could be used in mathematical models to predict a future surge in ED volume based on recent levels of use of physician capacity. The models may be used to guide decisions related to on-call staffing in non-crisis-related surges of patient volume. A retrospective analysis was conducted using information spanning July 2009 through June 2010 from a large urban teaching hospital with a Level I trauma center. A comparison of significance was used to assess the impact of multiple patient-specific variables on the state of the ED. Physician capacity was modeled based on historical physician treatment capacity and productivity. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to determine the probability that the available physician capacity would be sufficient to treat all patients forecasted to arrive in the next time period. The prediction horizons used were 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, 2 hours, 4 hours, 8 hours, and 12 hours. Five consecutive months of patient data from July 2010 through November 2010, similar to the data used to generate the models, was used to validate the models. Positive predictive values, Type I and Type II errors, and real-time accuracy in predicting noncrisis surge events were used to evaluate the forecast accuracy of the models. The ratio of new patients requiring treatment over total physician capacity (termed the care utilization ratio [CUR]) was deemed a robust predictor of the state of the ED (with a CUR greater than 1 indicating that the physician capacity would not be sufficient to treat all patients forecasted to arrive). Prediction intervals of 30 minutes, 8 hours, and 12 hours performed best of all models analyzed, with deviances of 1.000, 0.951, and 0.864, respectively. A 95% significance was used to validate the models against the July 2010 through November 2010 data set. Positive predictive values ranged from 0.738 to 0.872, true positives ranged from 74% to 94%, and true negatives ranged from 70% to 90% depending on the threshold used to determine the state of the ED with the 30-minute prediction model. The CUR is a new and robust indicator of an ED system's performance. The study was able to model the tradeoff of longer time to response versus shorter but more accurate predictions, by investigating different prediction intervals. Current practice would have been improved by using the proposed models and would have identified the surge in patient volume earlier on noncrisis days. © 2012 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Periodicity analysis of tourist arrivals to Banda Aceh using smoothing SARIMA approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miftahuddin, Helida, Desri; Sofyan, Hizir

2017-11-01

Forecasting the number of tourist arrivals who enters a region is needed for tourism businesses, economic and industrial policies, so that the statistical modeling needs to be conducted. Banda Aceh is the capital of Aceh province more economic activity is driven by the services sector, one of which is the tourism sector. Therefore, the prediction of the number of tourist arrivals is needed to develop further policies. The identification results indicate that the data arrival of foreign tourists to Banda Aceh to contain the trend and seasonal nature. Allegedly, the number of arrivals is influenced by external factors, such as economics, politics, and the holiday season caused the structural break in the data. Trend patterns are detected by using polynomial regression with quadratic and cubic approaches, while seasonal is detected by a periodic regression polynomial with quadratic and cubic approach. To model the data that has seasonal effects, one of the statistical methods that can be used is SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). The results showed that the smoothing, a method to detect the trend pattern is cubic polynomial regression approach, with the modified model and the multiplicative periodicity of 12 months. The AIC value obtained was 70.52. While the method for detecting the seasonal pattern is a periodic regression polynomial cubic approach, with the modified model and the multiplicative periodicity of 12 months. The AIC value obtained was 73.37. Furthermore, the best model to predict the number of foreign tourist arrivals to Banda Aceh in 2017 to 2018 is SARIMA (0,1,1)(1,1,0) with MAPE is 26%.

Hardware-software complex of informing passengers of forecasted route transport arrival at stop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pogrebnoy, V. Yu; Pushkarev, M. I.; Fadeev, A. S.

2017-02-01

The paper presents the hardware-software complex of informing the passengers of the forecasted route transport arrival. A client-server architecture of the forecasting information system is represented and an electronic information board prototype is described. The scheme of information transfer and processing, starting with receiving navigating telemetric data from a transport vehicle and up to the time of passenger public transport arrival at the stop, as well as representation of the information on the electronic board is illustrated and described. Methods and algorithms of determination of the transport vehicle current location in the city route network are considered in detail. The description of the proposed forecasting model of transport vehicle arrival time at the stop is given. The obtained result is applied in Tomsk for forecasting and displaying the arrival time information at the stops.

Tailoff thrust and impulse imbalance between pairs of Space Shuttle solid rocket motors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobs, E. P.; Yeager, J. M.

1975-01-01

The tailoff thrust and impulse imbalance between pairs of solid rocket motors is of particular interest for the Space Shuttle Vehicle because of the potential control problems that exist with this asymmetric configuration. Although a similar arrangement of solid rocket motors was utilized for the Titan Program, they produced less than one-half the thrust level of the Space Shuttle at web action time, and the overall vehicle was symmetric. Since the Titan Program does provide the most applicable actual test data, 23 flight pairs were analyzed to determine the actual tailoff thrust and impulse imbalance experienced. The results were scaled up using the predicted web action time thrust and tailoff time to arrive at values for the Space Shuttle. These values were then statistically treated to obtain a prediction of the maximum imbalance one could expect to experience during the Shuttle Program.

Harnessing naturally occurring data to measure the response of spending to income

PubMed Central

Gelman, Michael; Kariv, Shachar; Shapiro, Matthew D.; Silverman, Dan; Tadelis, Steven

2016-01-01

This paper presents a new data infrastructure for measuring economic activity. The infrastructure records transactions and account balances, yielding measurements with scope and accuracy that have little precedent in economics. The data are drawn from a diverse population that overrepresents males and younger adults but contains large numbers of underrepresented groups. The data infrastructure permits evaluation of a benchmark theory in economics that predicts that individuals should use a combination of cash management, saving, and borrowing to make the timing of income irrelevant for the timing of spending. As in previous studies and in contrast to the predictions of the theory, there is a response of spending to the arrival of anticipated income. The data also show, however, that this apparent excess sensitivity of spending results largely from the coincident timing of regular income and regular spending. The remaining excess sensitivity is concentrated among individuals with less liquidity. PMID:25013075

Supervising Remote Humanoids Across Intermediate Time Delay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hambuchen, Kimberly; Bluethmann, William; Goza, Michael; Ambrose, Robert; Rabe, Kenneth; Allan, Mark

2006-01-01

The President's Vision for Space Exploration, laid out in 2004, relies heavily upon robotic exploration of the lunar surface in early phases of the program. Prior to the arrival of astronauts on the lunar surface, these robots will be required to be controlled across space and time, posing a considerable challenge for traditional telepresence techniques. Because time delays will be measured in seconds, not minutes as is the case for Mars Exploration, uploading the plan for a day seems excessive. An approach for controlling humanoids under intermediate time delay is presented. This approach uses software running within a ground control cockpit to predict an immersed robot supervisor's motions which the remote humanoid autonomously executes. Initial results are presented.

Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, C.; Meng, L.

2015-12-01

Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800 instruments) and the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array (~400 instruments), are established.

Scalable and responsive event processing in the cloud

PubMed Central

Suresh, Visalakshmi; Ezhilchelvan, Paul; Watson, Paul

2013-01-01

Event processing involves continuous evaluation of queries over streams of events. Response-time optimization is traditionally done over a fixed set of nodes and/or by using metrics measured at query-operator levels. Cloud computing makes it easy to acquire and release computing nodes as required. Leveraging this flexibility, we propose a novel, queueing-theory-based approach for meeting specified response-time targets against fluctuating event arrival rates by drawing only the necessary amount of computing resources from a cloud platform. In the proposed approach, the entire processing engine of a distinct query is modelled as an atomic unit for predicting response times. Several such units hosted on a single node are modelled as a multiple class M/G/1 system. These aspects eliminate intrusive, low-level performance measurements at run-time, and also offer portability and scalability. Using model-based predictions, cloud resources are efficiently used to meet response-time targets. The efficacy of the approach is demonstrated through cloud-based experiments. PMID:23230164

Method of locating underground mines fires

DOEpatents

Laage, Linneas; Pomroy, William

1992-01-01

An improved method of locating an underground mine fire by comparing the pattern of measured combustion product arrival times at detector locations with a real time computer-generated array of simulated patterns. A number of electronic fire detection devices are linked thru telemetry to a control station on the surface. The mine's ventilation is modeled on a digital computer using network analysis software. The time reguired to locate a fire consists of the time required to model the mines' ventilation, generate the arrival time array, scan the array, and to match measured arrival time patterns to the simulated patterns.

Does winter region affect spring arrival time and body mass of king eiders in northern Alaska?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.

2009-01-01

Events during the non-breeding season may affect the body condition of migratory birds and influence performance during the following breeding season. Migratory birds nesting in the Arctic often rely on endogenous nutrients for reproductive efforts, and are thus potentially subject to such carry-over effects. We tested whether king eider (Somateria spectabilis) arrival time and body mass upon arrival at breeding grounds in northern Alaska were affected by their choice of a winter region in the Bering Sea. We captured birds shortly after arrival on breeding grounds in early June 2002–2006 at two sites in northern Alaska and determined the region in which individuals wintered using satellite telemetry or stable isotope ratios of head feathers. We used generalized linear models to assess whether winter region explained variation in arrival body mass among individuals by accounting for sex, site, annual variation, and the date a bird was captured. We found no support for our hypothesis that either arrival time or arrival body mass of king eiders differed among winter regions. We conclude that wintering in different regions in the Bering Sea is unlikely to have reproductive consequences for king eiders in our study areas.

A Simplified Approach for Simultaneous Measurements of Wavefront Velocity and Curvature in the Heart Using Activation Times.

PubMed

Mazeh, Nachaat; Haines, David E; Kay, Matthew W; Roth, Bradley J

2013-12-01

The velocity and curvature of a wave front are important factors governing the propagation of electrical activity through cardiac tissue, particularly during heart arrhythmias of clinical importance such as fibrillation. Presently, no simple computational model exists to determine these values simultaneously. The proposed model uses the arrival times at four or five sites to determine the wave front speed ( v ), direction (θ), and radius of curvature (ROC) ( r 0 ). If the arrival times are measured, then v , θ, and r 0 can be found from differences in arrival times and the distance between these sites. During isotropic conduction, we found good correlation between measured values of the ROC r 0 and the distance from the unipolar stimulus ( r = 0.9043 and p < 0.0001). The conduction velocity (m/s) was correlated ( r = 0.998, p < 0.0001) using our method (mean = 0.2403, SD = 0.0533) and an empirical method (mean = 0.2352, SD = 0.0560). The model was applied to a condition of anisotropy and a complex case of reentry with a high voltage extra stimulus. Again, results show good correlation between our simplified approach and established methods for multiple wavefront morphologies. In conclusion, insignificant measurement errors were observed between this simplified approach and an approach that was more computationally demanding. Accuracy was maintained when the requirement that ε (ε = b/r 0 , ratio of recording site spacing over wave fronts ROC) was between 0.001 and 0.5. The present simplified model can be applied to a variety of clinical conditions to predict behavior of planar, elliptical, and reentrant wave fronts. It may be used to study the genesis and propagation of rotors in human arrhythmias and could lead to rotor mapping using low density endocardial recording electrodes.

If Time Is Brain Where Is the Improvement in Prehospital Time after Stroke?

PubMed Central

Pulvers, Jeremy N.; Watson, John D. G.

2017-01-01

Despite the availability of thrombolytic and endovascular therapy for acute ischemic stroke, many patients are ineligible due to delayed hospital arrival. The identification of factors related to either early or delayed hospital arrival may reveal potential targets of intervention to reduce prehospital delay and improve access to time-critical thrombolysis and clot retrieval therapy. Here, we have reviewed studies reporting on factors associated with either early or delayed hospital arrival after stroke, together with an analysis of stroke onset to hospital arrival times. Much effort in the stroke treatment community has been devoted to reducing door-to-needle times with encouraging improvements. However, this review has revealed that the median onset-to-door times and the percentage of stroke patients arriving before the logistically critical 3 h have shown little improvement in the past two decades. Major factors affecting prehospital time were related to emergency medical pathways, stroke symptomatology, patient and bystander behavior, patient health characteristics, and stroke treatment awareness. Interventions addressing these factors may prove effective in reducing prehospital delay, allowing prompt diagnosis, which in turn may increase the rates and/or efficacy of acute treatments such as thrombolysis and clot retrieval therapy and thereby improve stroke outcomes. PMID:29209269

Exploring the performance of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) in a European emergency department.

PubMed

Alam, N; Vegting, I L; Houben, E; van Berkel, B; Vaughan, L; Kramer, M H H; Nanayakkara, P W B

2015-05-01

Several triage systems have been developed for use in the emergency department (ED), however they are not designed to detect deterioration in patients. Deteriorating patients may be at risk of going undetected during their ED stay and are therefore vulnerable to develop serious adverse events (SAEs). The national early warning score (NEWS) has a good ability to discriminate ward patients at risk of SAEs. The utility of NEWS had not yet been studied in an ED. To explore the performance of the NEWS in an ED with regard to predicting adverse outcomes. A prospective observational study. Patients Eligible patients were those presenting to the ED during the 6 week study period with an Emergency Severity Index (ESI) of 2 and 3 not triaged to the resuscitation room. NEWS was documented at three time points: on arrival (T0), hour after arrival (T1) and at transfer to the general ward/ICU (T2). The outcomes of interest were: hospital admission, ICU admission, length of stay and 30 day mortality. A total of 300 patients were assessed for eligibility. Complete data was able to be collected for 274 patients on arrival at the ED. NEWS was significantly correlated with patient outcomes, including 30 day mortality, hospital admission, and length of stay at all-time points. The NEWS measured at different time points was a good predictor of patient outcomes and can be of additional value in the ED to longitudinally monitor patients throughout their stay in the ED and in the hospital. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of the CME Geomagnetic forecast alerts under COMESEP alert system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumbovic, Mateja; Srivastava, Nandita; Khodia, Yamini; Vršnak, Bojan; Devos, Andy; Rodriguez, Luciano

2017-04-01

An automated space weather alert system has been developed under the EU FP7 project COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles: http://comesep.aeronomy.be) to forecast solar energetic particles (SEP) and coronal mass ejection (CME) risk levels at Earth. COMESEP alert system uses automated detection tool CACTus to detect potentially threatening CMEs, drag-based model (DBM) to predict their arrival and CME geo-effectiveness tool (CGFT) to predict their geomagnetic impact. Whenever CACTus detects a halo or partial halo CME and issues an alert, DBM calculates its arrival time at Earth and CGFT calculates its geomagnetic risk level. Geomagnetic risk level is calculated based on an estimation of the CME arrival probability and its likely geo-effectiveness, as well as an estimate of the geomagnetic-storm duration. We present the evaluation of the CME risk level forecast with COMESEP alert system based on a study of geo-effective CMEs observed during 2014. The validation of the forecast tool is done by comparing the forecasts with observations. In addition, we test the success rate of the automatic forecasts (without human intervention) against the forecasts with human intervention using advanced versions of DBM and CGFT (self standing tools available at Hvar Observatory website: http://oh.geof.unizg.hr). The results implicate that the success rate of the forecast is higher with human intervention and using more advanced tools. This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252). We acknowledge the support of Croatian Science Foundation under the project 6212 „Solar and Stellar Variability".

Improved EOS for describing high-temperature off-hugoniot states in epoxy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulford, R. N.; Lanier, N. E.; Swift, D.; Workman, J.; Graham, Peter; Moore, Alastair

2007-06-01

Modeling of off-hugoniot states in an expanding interface subjected to a shock reveals the importance of a chemically complete description of the materials. Hydrodynamic experiments typically rely on pre-shot target characterization to predict how initial perturbations will affect the late-time hydrodynamic mixing. However, it is the condition of these perturbations at the time of shock arrival that dominates their eventual late-time evolution. In some cases these perturbations are heated prior to the arrival of the main shock. Correctly modeling how temperature and density gradients will develop in the pre-heated material requires an understanding of the equation-of-state. In the experiment modelled, an epoxy/foam layered package was subjected to tin L-shell radiation, producing an expanding assembly at a well-defined temperature. This assembly was then subjected to a controlled shock, and the evolution of the epoxy-foam interface imaged with x-ray radiography. Modeling of the data with the hydrodynamics code RAGE is unsuccessful under certain shock conditions, unless condensation of chemical species from the plasma is explicitly included. The EOS code CHEETAH was used to prepare suitable EOS for input into the hydrodynamics modeling.

Improved EOS for Describing High-Temperature Off-Hugoniot States in Epoxy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulford, R. N.; Swift, D. C.; Lanier, N. E.; Workman, J.; Holmes, R. L.; Graham, P.; Moore, A.

2007-12-01

Modelling of off-Hugoniot states in an expanding interface subjected to a shock reveals the importance of a chemically complete description of the materials. Hydrodynamic experiments typically rely on pre-shot target characterization to predict how initial perturbations will affect the late-time hydrodynamic mixing. However, it is the condition of these perturbations at the time of shock arrival that dominates their eventual late-time evolution. In some cases these perturbations are heated prior to the arrival of the main shock. Correctly modelling how temperature and density gradients will develop in the pre-heated material requires an understanding of the equation-of-state. In the experiment modelled, an epoxy/foam layered package was subjected to tin L-shell radiation, producing an expanding assembly at a well-defined temperature. This assembly was then subjected to a controlled shock, and the evolution of the epoxy-foam interface imaged with x-ray radiography. Modelling of the data with the hydrodynamics code RAGE was unsuccessful under certain shock conditions, unless condensation of chemical species from the plasma is explicitly included. The EOS code Cheetah was used to prepare suitable EOS for input into the hydrodynamics modelling.

Determination Hypocentre and Focal Mechanism Earthquake of Oct 31, 2016 in Bone, South Sulawesi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altin Massinai, Muhammad; Fawzy Ismullah M, Muhammad

2018-03-01

Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) recorded an earthquake with M4.6 on at October 31, 2016 at Bone District, around 80 Km northeast form Makassar, South Sulawesi. The earthquake occurred 18:18:14 local time in 4.7°S, 120°E with depth 10 Km. Seismicity around location predicted caused by activity Walennae fault. We reprocessed earthquake data to determine precise hypocentre location and focal mechanism. The P- and S-wave arrival time got from BMKG used as input HYPOELLIPSE code to determine hypocentre. The results showed that the earthquake occurred 10:18:14.46 UTC in 4.638°S, 119.966°E with depth 24.76 Km. The hypocentre resolved 10 Km fix depth and had lower travel time residual than BMKG result. Focal mechanism determination used Azmtak code based on the first arrival polarity at earthquake waveform manually picked. The result showed a reverse mechanism with strike direction 38°, dip 44°, rake angle 134° on fault plane I and strike direction 164°, dip 60°, rake angle 56° on fault plane II. So, the earthquake which may be related to a reverse East Walennae Fault.

An experimental study of an explosively driven flat plate launcher

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rae, Philip; Haroz, Erik; Armstrong, Chris; Perry, Lee; M Division Team

2017-06-01

For some upcoming experiments it is desired to impact a large explosive assembly with one or more moderate diameter flat metal plates traveling at high velocity (2-3 km s-1). The time of arrival of these plates will need to carefully controlled and delayed (i.e. the time(s) of arrival known to approximately a microsecond). For this reason, producing a flyer plate from more traditional gun assemblies is not possible. Previous researchers have demonstrated the ability to throw reasonably flat metal flyers from the so-called Forest flyer geometry. The defining characteristics of this design are a carefully controlled reduction in explosive area from a larger explosive plane-wave-lens and booster pad to a smaller flyer plate to improve the planarity of the drive available and an air gap between the explosive booster and the plate to reduce the peak tensile stresses generated in the plate to suppress spalling. This experimental series comprised a number of different design variants and plate and explosive drive materials. The aim was to calibrate a predictive computational modeling capability on this kind of system in preparation for later more radical design ideas best tested in a computer before undertaking the expensive business of construction.

Mortality risk factors for calves entering a multi-location white veal farm in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Winder, Charlotte B; Kelton, David F; Duffield, Todd F

2016-12-01

Mortality in preweaned dairy-breed calves, whether they are replacement dairy heifers, veal animals, or dairy beef animals, represents both a welfare issue and a source of economic loss for the industries involved. Studies describing morbidity and mortality in veal calves have illustrated different management practices and requirements in terms of housing and nutrition around the world. Studies examining the rearing of replacement dairy heifers have shown that rates of morbidity and mortality can vary dramatically between farms, perhaps reflecting differences in management strategies. It has been over 2 decades since morbidity and mortality in veal calves in Ontario were described. The objective of this retrospective population cohort study was to describe mortality and determine whether on-arrival information could be used to predict mortality risk. Predictors could be used to both better classify and group calves on arrival and provide feedback to suppliers about the characteristics of the highest- and lowest-risk calves. We collected data from 10,910 calves entering 7 barns of a single white veal farm, all in Ontario, from January 1 to December 31, 2014. Calves were followed until death or marketing (typically 140 to 150 d). We developed logistic regression models to determine the effects of weight on arrival, season of arrival, supplier, sex, barn, and purchase price on the risk of total mortality, early mortality (0-21d after arrival), and late mortality (>21d after arrival). We identified significant associations between season, barn, supplier, weight, and total mortality risk, with lighter-weight calves arriving in winter being at increased risk. Early mortality was significantly associated with weight, season, barn, and supplier, and tended to be associated with standardized price; lighter-weight calves arriving in winter at lower prices were at increased risk. Late mortality was significantly associated with season of arrival, barn, and supplier. On-arrival measures better predicted early mortality compared with late or total mortality. A further exploration of risk factors from the dairy farm of origin for veal calf mortality would serve to improve the productivity and welfare of calves of both sexes born on dairy farms. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ARRIVAL TIME CALCULATION FOR INTERPLANETARY CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WITH CIRCULAR FRONTS AND APPLICATION TO STEREO OBSERVATIONS OF THE 2009 FEBRUARY 13 ERUPTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moestl, C.; Rollett, T.; Temmer, M.

2011-11-01

One of the goals of the NASA Solar TErestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) mission is to study the feasibility of forecasting the direction, arrival time, and internal structure of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from a vantage point outside the Sun-Earth line. Through a case study, we discuss the arrival time calculation of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) in the ecliptic plane using data from STEREO/SECCHI at large elongations from the Sun in combination with different geometric assumptions about the ICME front shape [fixed-{Phi} (FP): a point and harmonic mean (HM): a circle]. These forecasting techniques use single-spacecraft imaging data and are basedmore » on the assumption of constant velocity and direction. We show that for the slow (350 km s{sup -1}) ICME on 2009 February 13-18, observed at quadrature by the two STEREO spacecraft, the results for the arrival time given by the HM approximation are more accurate by 12 hr than those for FP in comparison to in situ observations of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters by STEREO/IMPACT/PLASTIC, and by 6 hr for the arrival time at Venus Express (MAG). We propose that the improvement is directly related to the ICME front shape being more accurately described by HM for an ICME with a low inclination of its symmetry axis to the ecliptic. In this case, the ICME has to be tracked to >30{sup 0} elongation to obtain arrival time errors < {+-} 5 hr. A newly derived formula for calculating arrival times with the HM method is also useful for a triangulation technique assuming the same geometry.« less

The interplanetary shock of September 24, 1998: Arrival at Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, C. T.; Wang, Y. L.; Raeder, J.; Tokar, R. L.; Smith, C. W.; Ogilvie, K. W.; Lazarus, A. J.; Lepping, R. P.; Szabo, A.; Kawano, H.; Mukai, T.; Savin, S.; Yermolaev, Y. I.; Zhou, X.-Y.; Tsurutani, B. T.

2000-11-01

At close to 2345 UT on September 24, 1998, the magnetosphere was suddenly compressed by the passage of an interplanetary shock. In order to properly interpret the magnetospheric events triggered by the arrival of this shock, we calculate the orientation of the shock, its velocity, and its estimated time of arrival at the nose of the magnetosphere. Our best fit shock normal has an orientation of (-0.981 -0.157 -0.112) in solar ecliptic coordinates, a speed of 769 km/s, and an arrival time of 2344:19 at the magnetopause at 10 RE. Since measurements of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field are available from multiple spacecraft, we can compare several different techniques of shock-normal determination. Of the single spacecraft techniques the magnetic coplanarity solution is most accurate and the mixed mode solution is of lesser accuracy. Uncertainty in the timing and location of the IMP 8 spacecraft limits the accuracy of solutions using the time of arrival at the position of IMP 8.

Spring leaf phenology, insect abundance and the timing of breeding by birds in a North American temperate forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lany, N.; Ayres, M. P.; Stange, E.; Sillett, S.; Rodenhouse, N.; Holmes, R. T.

2011-12-01

Climate patterns on planet Earth display conspicuous variation among years and the phenology of biological events, when measured by day of the year, shows correspondingly high interannual variation. For many species, survival and reproductive success is influenced by the timing of their annual rhythms relative to that of other species with which they interact. The historically high interannual variation in climate has selected for adaptive plasticity in the phenology of biological populations, but climate change challenges the ability of populations to maintain appropriate phenology. Understanding the physiological mechanisms by which organisms respond to existing variation will help predict situations where the phenological associations among interacting species may break down. We used a 22-year time series of phenological observations of two foundational deciduous tree species at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire USA to develop and parameterize a mechanistic Bayesian model of spring leaf development . The interannual variation in timing of leafout has been high (range of 31 days since 1960, standard deviation = 6.7 days). For both tree species, thermal sum accounts for more than 80% of the variation in day of leafout for both species but a threshold based on photoperiod or early spring soil temperatures also plays a role after which development progresses as a simple linear function of degree days above 4 C. We also analyzed a corresponding time series of the timing of arrival and nesting of a common, migratory, insectivorous bird (Black-Throated Blue Warbler, Dendroica caerulescens) in the same forest. The arrival of these warblers on their breeding grounds was slightly responsive to interannual variation in leafout; the change in the median date of warbler arrival per change in date of leafout is 0.15 ± 0.08 d. Thus, the timing of warbler arrival has only varied by about one week relative to a range of about one month in the timing of leafout. Presumably, the birds rely quite heavily on photoperiod cues for the timing of their long distance movements from the Greater Antilles. However, the warblers displayed markedly higher phenotypic plasticity in the timing of their nesting; the change in median nest initiation date per change in date of leafout is 0.59 ± 0.13 d. Most of the plasticity in nesting phenology arose from behavioral adjustments of the interval between arrival and nesting depending on year-specific patterns in forest phenology. The community of insects on which the birds feed is the ecological link between the birds and the trees. The nature of physiological controls on insect phenology remains the least understood feature of this system, but many of the herbivorous insects (chiefly caterpillars) are more responsive than the birds to climatic variation. However, there is high diversity of species, and probably a diversity of physiological controls on the timing of larval feeding.

Evaluation of bus transit reliability in the District of Columbia.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Several performance metrics can be used to assess the reliability of a transit system. These include on-time arrivals, travel-time : adherence, run-time adherence, and customer satisfaction, among others. On-time arrival at bus stops is one of the pe...

Collaborative Arrival Planning: Data Sharing and User Preference Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zelenka, Richard E.; Edwards, Thomas A. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

Air traffic growth and air carrier economic pressures have motivated efforts to increase the flexibility of the air traffic management process and change the relationship between the air traffic control service provider and the system user. One of the most visible of these efforts is the U.S. government/industry "free flight" initiative, in which the service provider concentrates on safety and cross-airline fairness, and the user on their business objectives and operating preferences, including selecting their own path and speed in real-time. In the terminal arrival phase of flight, severe restrictions and rigid control are currently placed on system users, typically without regard for individual user operational preferences. Airborne delays applied to arriving aircraft into capacity constrained airports are imposed on a first-come, first-serve basis, and thus do not allow the system user to plan for or prioritize late arrivals, or to economically optimize their arrival sequence. A central tenant of the free-flight operating paradigm is collaboration between service providers and users in reaching air traffic management decisions. Such collaboration would be particularly beneficial to an airline's "hub" operation, where off-schedule arrival aircraft are a consistent problem, as they cause serious air-port ramp difficulties, rippling airline scheduling effects, and result in large economic inefficiencies. Greater collaboration can also lead to increased airport capacity and decrease the severity of over-capacity rush periods. In the NASA Collaborative Arrival Planning (CAP) project, both independent exchange of real-time data between the service provider and system user and collaborative decision support tools are addressed. Data exchange of real-time arrival scheduling, airspace management, and air carrier fleet data between the FAA service provider and an air carrier is being conducted and evaluated. Collaborative arrival decision support tools to allow intra-airline arrival preferences are being developed and simulated. The CAP project is part of and leveraged from the NASA/FAA Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS), a fielded set of decision support tools that provide computer generated advisories for both enroute and terminal area controllers to manage and control arrival traffic more efficiently. In this paper, the NASA Collaborative Arrival Planning project is outlined and recent results detailed, including the real-time use of CTAS arrival scheduling data by a major air carrier and simulations of tactical and strategic user preference decision support tools.

Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor Operational Field Test Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farley, Todd; Landry, Steven J.; Hoang, Ty; Nickelson, Monicarol; Levin, Kerry M.; Rowe, Dennis W.

2005-01-01

The Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) is a research prototype system which seeks to bring time-based metering into the mainstream of air traffic control (ATC) operations. Time-based metering is an efficient alternative to traditional air traffic management techniques such as distance-based spacing (miles-in-trail spacing) and managed arrival reservoirs (airborne holding). While time-based metering has demonstrated significant benefit in terms of arrival throughput and arrival delay, its use to date has been limited to arrival operations at just nine airports nationally. Wide-scale adoption of time-based metering has been hampered, in part, by the limited scalability of metering automation. In order to realize the full spectrum of efficiency benefits possible with time-based metering, a much more modular, scalable time-based metering capability is required. With its distributed metering architecture, multi-center TMA offers such a capability.

A Direction of Arrival Estimation Algorithm Based on Orthogonal Matching Pursuit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Junyao; Cao, Fei; Liu, Lipeng

2018-02-01

The results show that the modified DSM is able to predict local buckling capacity of hot-rolled RHS and SHS accurately. In order to solve the problem of the weak ability of anti-radiation missile against active decoy in modern electronic warfare, a direction of arrival estimation algorithm based on orthogonal matching pursuit is proposed in this paper. The algorithm adopts the compression sensing technology. This paper uses array antennas to receive signals, gets the sparse representation of signals, and then designs the corresponding perception matrix. The signal is reconstructed by orthogonal matching pursuit algorithm to estimate the optimal solution. At the same time, the error of the whole measurement system is analyzed and simulated, and the validity of this algorithm is verified. The algorithm greatly reduces the measurement time, the quantity of equipment and the total amount of the calculation, and accurately estimates the angle and strength of the incoming signal. This technology can effectively improve the angle resolution of the missile, which is of reference significance to the research of anti-active decoy.

Contact Graph Routing Enhancements Developed in ION for DTN

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Segui, John S.; Burleigh, Scott

2013-01-01

The Interplanetary Overlay Network (ION) software suite is an open-source, flight-ready implementation of networking protocols including the Delay/Disruption Tolerant Networking (DTN) Bundle Protocol (BP), the CCSDS (Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems) File Delivery Protocol (CFDP), and many others including the Contact Graph Routing (CGR) DTN routing system. While DTN offers the capability to tolerate disruption and long signal propagation delays in transmission, without an appropriate routing protocol, no data can be delivered. CGR was built for space exploration networks with scheduled communication opportunities (typically based on trajectories and orbits), represented as a contact graph. Since CGR uses knowledge of future connectivity, the contact graph can grow rather large, and so efficient processing is desired. These enhancements allow CGR to scale to predicted NASA space network complexities and beyond. This software improves upon CGR by adopting an earliest-arrival-time cost metric and using the Dijkstra path selection algorithm. Moving to Dijkstra path selection also enables construction of an earliest- arrival-time tree for multicast routing. The enhancements have been rolled into ION 3.0 available on sourceforge.net.

Prehospital neurological deterioration in stroke.

PubMed

Slavin, Sabreena J; Sucharew, Heidi; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J; Woo, Daniel; Adeoye, Opeolu; Flaherty, Matthew L; Ferioli, Simona; McMullan, Jason; Mackey, Jason; De Los Rios La Rosa, Felipe; Martini, Sharyl; Kissela, Brett M; Kleindorfer, Dawn O

2018-04-27

Patients with stroke can experience neurological deterioration in the prehospital setting. We evaluated patients with stroke to determine factors associated with prehospital neurological deterioration (PND). Among the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region (population ~1.3 million), we screened all 15 local hospitals' admissions from 2010 for acute stroke and included patients aged ≥20. The GCS was compared between emergency medical services (EMS) arrival and hospital arrival, with decrease ≥2 points considered PND. Data obtained retrospectively included demographics, medical history and medication use, stroke subtype (eg, ischaemic stroke (IS), intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH), subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH)) and IS subtype (eg, small vessel, large vessel, cardioembolic), seizure at onset, time intervals between symptom onset, EMS arrival and hospital arrival, EMS level of training, and blood pressure and serum glucose on EMS arrival. Of 2708 total patients who had a stroke, 1092 patients (median (IQR) age 74 (61-83) years; 56% women; 21% black) were analysed. PND occurred in 129 cases (12%), including 9% of IS, 24% of ICH and 16% of SAH. In multivariable analysis, black race, atrial fibrillation, haemorrhagic subtype and ALS level of transport were associated with PND. Haemorrhage and atrial fibrillation is associated with PND in stroke, and further investigation is needed to establish whether PND can be predicted. Further studies are also needed to assess whether preferential transport of patients with deterioration to hospitals equipped with higher levels of care is beneficial, identify why race is associated with deterioration and to test therapies targeting PND. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Queues with Dropping Functions and General Arrival Processes

PubMed Central

Chydzinski, Andrzej; Mrozowski, Pawel

2016-01-01

In a queueing system with the dropping function the arriving customer can be denied service (dropped) with the probability that is a function of the queue length at the time of arrival of this customer. The potential applicability of such mechanism is very wide due to the fact that by choosing the shape of this function one can easily manipulate several performance characteristics of the queueing system. In this paper we carry out analysis of the queueing system with the dropping function and a very general model of arrival process—the model which includes batch arrivals and the interarrival time autocorrelation, and allows for fitting the actual shape of the interarrival time distribution and its moments. For such a system we obtain formulas for the distribution of the queue length and the overall customer loss ratio. The analytical results are accompanied with numerical examples computed for several dropping functions. PMID:26943171

Predictive modelling of Ketzin - CO2 arrival in the observation well

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kühn, M.; Class, H.; Frykman, P.; Kopp, A.; Nielsen, C. M.; Probst, P.

2009-04-01

The design of the Ketzin CO2 storage site allows testing of different modelling approaches, ranging from analytical approaches to finite element modelling. As three wells are drilled in an L-shape configuration, 3D geophysical observations (electrical resistivity, seismic imaging - for details see further presentations at EGU2009) allow to determine the 4D evolvement of the CO2 plume within the reservoir. Further information is available through smart casing technologies (DTS, ERT), conventional fluid, and permanent gas sampling. As input parameters for the models, a high resolution 3D seismic as well as detailed analysed core samples from all three wells at Ketzin were available. Logging data and laboratory experiments on rock samples act as further boundary conditions for the geological model. Hydraulic testing of all three wells gave further information about the complex hydraulic situation of the highly heterogeneous reservoir. Before CO2 injection started at the Ketzin site on the 30th of June 2008 any member of the CO2SINK project was asked to place a bet in a competition and predict when the CO2 arrival in the observation well - 50 m away from the injection site - is to be expected. This allows for a double blind study, the approval of different modelling strategies, and to improve modelling tools and strategies. The discussed estimates are based on three different numerical models. Eclipse100, Eclipse300 (CO2STORE) and MUFTE-UG were applied for predictive modelling. The geological models are based on all available geophysical and geological information. We present the results of this modelling exercise and discuss the differences of all the models and assess the capability of numerical simulation to estimate processes occurring during CO2 storage. The role of grid size on the precision of the modelled two phase fluid flow in a layered reservoir is demonstrated, as a high resolution model of the two phase flow explains the observed arrival of the CO2 very well. All used models are capable to predict the arrival of the CO2 quite well. However, history matching of the models and comparison to the derived evolution of the CO2 cloud over time and space will help to better understand and constrain the processes involved within the reservoir and to optimize the modelling tools. Last but not least - within the described competition, the best forecast of all was achieved by a modeller.

A Stable Finite-Difference Scheme for Population Growth and Diffusion on a Map

PubMed Central

Callegari, S.; Lake, G. R.; Tkachenko, N.; Weissmann, J. D.; Zollikofer, Ch. P. E.

2017-01-01

We describe a general Godunov-type splitting for numerical simulations of the Fisher–Kolmogorov–Petrovski–Piskunov growth and diffusion equation on a world map with Neumann boundary conditions. The procedure is semi-implicit, hence quite stable. Our principal application for this solver is modeling human population dispersal over geographical maps with changing paleovegetation and paleoclimate in the late Pleistocene. As a proxy for carrying capacity we use Net Primary Productivity (NPP) to predict times for human arrival in the Americas. PMID:28085882

A Stable Finite-Difference Scheme for Population Growth and Diffusion on a Map.

PubMed

Petersen, W P; Callegari, S; Lake, G R; Tkachenko, N; Weissmann, J D; Zollikofer, Ch P E

2017-01-01

We describe a general Godunov-type splitting for numerical simulations of the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovski-Piskunov growth and diffusion equation on a world map with Neumann boundary conditions. The procedure is semi-implicit, hence quite stable. Our principal application for this solver is modeling human population dispersal over geographical maps with changing paleovegetation and paleoclimate in the late Pleistocene. As a proxy for carrying capacity we use Net Primary Productivity (NPP) to predict times for human arrival in the Americas.

Multi-decadal trends in spring arrival of avian migrants to the central Arctic coast of Alaska: Effects of environmental and ecological factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, David; Helmericks, J.; Hupp, Jerry W.; McManus, L.; Budde, Michael; Douglas, David C.; Tape, K.D.

2016-01-01

Warming in the Arctic has caused the transition from winter to summer to occur weeks earlier over the last half century, yet little is known about whether avian migrants have altered their timing of arrival on breeding areas to match this earlier seasonal transition. Over a 50-yr period, we examined trends in the timing of the first arrival for 16 avian migrant species at the terminus of their northward migration along the central Arctic coast of Alaska and compared these trends to factors potentially influencing migration phenology. Date of first arrival occurred an average of 0.12 d yr−1 or 6 d (range = 3–10 d) earlier across all species and did not differ significantly among species between 1964 and 2013. Local climatic variables, particularly temperature, had a greater effect on a species first arrival date than did large-scale climatic predictors. First arrival date was 1.03 d earlier for every 1°C annual change in temperature, but there was nearly a 2-fold difference in the range of responses across species (0.69–1.33 d °C−1), implying that some species did better than others at timing their arrival with changing temperature. There was weak support for an influence of foraging strategy, migration distance, and flight path on timing of first arrival. Our findings, like others from temperate latitudes, indicate that avian migrants are responsive to changing environmental conditions, though some species appear to be more adaptive than others.

Time to antibiotics for septic shock: evaluating a proposed performance measure.

PubMed

Venkatesh, Arjun K; Avula, Umakanth; Bartimus, Holly; Reif, Justin; Schmidt, Michael J; Powell, Emilie S

2013-04-01

International guidelines recommend antibiotics within 1 hour of septic shock recognition; however, a recently proposed performance measure is focused on measuring antibiotic administration within 3 hours of emergency department (ED) arrival. Our objective was to describe the time course of septic shock and subsequent implications for performance measurement. Cross-sectional study of consecutive ED patients ultimately diagnosed with septic shock. All patients were evaluated at an urban, academic ED in 2006 to 2008. Primary outcomes included time to definition of septic shock and performance on 2 measures: antibiotics within 3 hours of ED arrival vs antibiotics within 1 hour of septic shock definition. Of 267 patients with septic shock, the median time to definition was 88 minutes (interquartile range, 37-156), and 217 patients (81.9%) met the definition within 3 hours of arrival. Of 221 (83.4%) of patients who received antibiotics within 3 hours of arrival, 38 (17.2%) did not receive antibiotics within 1 hour of definition. Of 207 patients who received antibiotics within 1 hour of definition, 11.6% (n = 24) did not receive antibiotics within 3 hours of arrival. The arrival measure did not accurately classify performance in 23.4% of patients. Nearly 1 of 5 patients cannot be captured for performance measurement within 3 hours of ED arrival due to the variable progression of septic shock. Use of this measure would misclassify performance in 23% of patients. Measuring antibiotic administration based on the clinical course of septic shock rather than from ED arrival would be more appropriate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time-based partitioning model for predicting neurologically favorable outcome among adults with witnessed bystander out-of-hospital CPA.

PubMed

Abe, Toshikazu; Tokuda, Yasuharu; Cook, E Francis

2011-01-01

Optimal acceptable time intervals from collapse to bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) for neurologically favorable outcome among adults with witnessed out-of-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest (CPA) have been unclear. Our aim was to assess the optimal acceptable thresholds of the time intervals of CPR for neurologically favorable outcome and survival using a recursive partitioning model. From January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2009, we conducted a prospective population-based observational study across Japan involving consecutive out-of-hospital CPA patients (N = 69,648) who received a witnessed bystander CPR. Of 69,648 patients, 34,605 were assigned to the derivation data set and 35,043 to the validation data set. Time factors associated with better outcomes: the better outcomes were survival and neurologically favorable outcome at one month, defined as category one (good cerebral performance) or two (moderate cerebral disability) of the cerebral performance categories. Based on the recursive partitioning model from the derivation dataset (n = 34,605) to predict the neurologically favorable outcome at one month, 5 min threshold was the acceptable time interval from collapse to CPR initiation; 11 min from collapse to ambulance arrival; 18 min from collapse to return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC); and 19 min from collapse to hospital arrival. Among the validation dataset (n = 35,043), 209/2,292 (9.1%) in all patients with the acceptable time intervals and 1,388/2,706 (52.1%) in the subgroup with the acceptable time intervals and pre-hospital ROSC showed neurologically favorable outcome. Initiation of CPR should be within 5 min for obtaining neurologically favorable outcome among adults with witnessed out-of-hospital CPA. Patients with the acceptable time intervals of bystander CPR and pre-hospital ROSC within 18 min could have 50% chance of neurologically favorable outcome.

A predictive software tool for optimal timing in contrast enhanced carotid MR angiography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moghaddam, Abbas N.; Balawi, Tariq; Habibi, Reza; Panknin, Christoph; Laub, Gerhard; Ruehm, Stefan; Finn, J. Paul

2008-03-01

A clear understanding of the first pass dynamics of contrast agents in the vascular system is crucial in synchronizing data acquisition of 3D MR angiography (MRA) with arrival of the contrast bolus in the vessels of interest. We implemented a computational model to simulate contrast dynamics in the vessels using the theory of linear time-invariant systems. The algorithm calculates a patient-specific impulse response for the contrast concentration from time-resolved images following a small test bolus injection. This is performed for a specific region of interest and through deconvolution of the intensity curve using the long division method. Since high spatial resolution 3D MRA is not time-resolved, the method was validated on time-resolved arterial contrast enhancement in Multi Slice CT angiography. For 20 patients, the timing of the contrast enhancement of the main bolus was predicted by our algorithm from the response to the test bolus, and then for each case the predicted time of maximum intensity was compared to the corresponding time in the actual scan which resulted in an acceptable agreement. Furthermore, as a qualitative validation, the algorithm's predictions of the timing of the carotid MRA in 20 patients with high quality MRA were correlated with the actual timing of those studies. We conclude that the above algorithm can be used as a practical clinical tool to eliminate guesswork and to replace empiric formulae by a priori computation of patient-specific timing of data acquisition for MR angiography.

Detecting and Locating Seismic Events Without Phase Picks or Velocity Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrowsmith, S.; Young, C. J.; Ballard, S.; Slinkard, M.

2015-12-01

The standard paradigm for seismic event monitoring is to scan waveforms from a network of stations and identify the arrival time of various seismic phases. A signal association algorithm then groups the picks to form events, which are subsequently located by minimizing residuals between measured travel times and travel times predicted by an Earth model. Many of these steps are prone to significant errors which can lead to erroneous arrival associations and event locations. Here, we revisit a concept for event detection that does not require phase picks or travel time curves and fuses detection, association and location into a single algorithm. Our pickless event detector exploits existing catalog and waveform data to build an empirical stack of the full regional seismic wavefield, which is subsequently used to detect and locate events at a network level using correlation techniques. Because the technique uses more of the information content of the original waveforms, the concept is particularly powerful for detecting weak events that would be missed by conventional methods. We apply our detector to seismic data from the University of Utah Seismograph Stations network and compare our results with the earthquake catalog published by the University of Utah. We demonstrate that the pickless detector can detect and locate significant numbers of events previously missed by standard data processing techniques.

Substructures in the temporal distribution of atmospheric Cerenkov light in EAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosia, G.; Navarra, G.; Saavedra, O.; Boehm, E.

1980-06-01

Particle density and arrival time distribution of atmospheric Cerenkov light (ACL) was measured simultaneously in individual air showers at Pic du Midi. Substructures were observed in the arrival time distribution of the ACL. The arrival time is related to a position in the shower plane which indicates the existence of density variations, i.e., substructures in the lateral distribution of particles. The frequency of substructures is a few percent, and core distances of up to tens of meters were observed.

An Evaluation of Controller and Pilot Performance, Workload and Acceptability under a NextGen Concept for Dynamic Weather Adapted Arrival Routing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Walter W.; Lachter, Joel; Brandt, Summer; Koteskey, Robert; Dao, Arik-Quang; Kraut, Josh; Ligda, Sarah; Battiste, Vernol

2012-01-01

In todays terminal operations, controller workload increases and throughput decreases when fixed standard terminal arrival routes (STARs) are impacted by storms. To circumvent this operational constraint, Prete, Krozel, Mitchell, Kim and Zou (2008) proposed to use automation to dynamically adapt arrival and departure routing based on weather predictions. The present study examined this proposal in the context of a NextGen trajectory-based operation concept, focusing on the acceptability and its effect on the controllers ability to manage traffic flows. Six controllers and twelve transport pilots participated in a human-in-the-loop simulation of arrival operations into Louisville International Airport with interval management requirements. Three types of routing structures were used: Static STARs (similar to current routing, which require the trajectories of individual aircraft to be modified to avoid the weather), Dynamic routing (automated adaptive routing around weather), and Dynamic Adjusted routing (automated adaptive routing around weather with aircraft entry time adjusted to account for differences in route length). Spacing Responsibility, whether responsibility for interval management resided with the controllers (as today), or resided with the pilot (who used a flight deck based automated spacing algorithm), was also manipulated. Dynamic routing as a whole was rated superior to static routing, especially by pilots, both in terms of workload reduction and flight path safety. A downside of using dynamic routing was that the paths flown in the dynamic conditions tended to be somewhat longer than the paths flown in the static condition.

Signature-based search for delayed photons in exclusive photon plus missing transverse energy events from pp¯ collisions with s=1.96TeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aaltonen, T.; Amerio, S.; Amidei, D.; Anastassov, A.; Annovi, A.; Antos, J.; Apollinari, G.; Appel, J. A.; Arisawa, T.; Artikov, A.; Asaadi, J.; Ashmanskas, W.; Auerbach, B.; Aurisano, A.; Azfar, F.; Badgett, W.; Bae, T.; Barbaro-Galtieri, A.; Barnes, V. E.; Barnett, B. A.; Barria, P.; Bartos, P.; Bauce, M.; Bedeschi, F.; Behari, S.; Bellettini, G.; Bellinger, J.; Benjamin, D.; Beretvas, A.; Bhatti, A.; Bland, K. R.; Blumenfeld, B.; Bocci, A.; Bodek, A.; Bortoletto, D.; Boudreau, J.; Boveia, A.; Brigliadori, L.; Bromberg, C.; Brucken, E.; Budagov, J.; Budd, H. S.; Burkett, K.; Busetto, G.; Bussey, P.; Butti, P.; Buzatu, A.; Calamba, A.; Camarda, S.; Campanelli, M.; Canelli, F.; Carls, B.; Carlsmith, D.; Carosi, R.; Carrillo, S.; Casal, B.; Casarsa, M.; Castro, A.; Catastini, P.; Cauz, D.; Cavaliere, V.; Cavalli-Sforza, M.; Cerri, A.; Cerrito, L.; Chen, Y. C.; Chertok, M.; Chiarelli, G.; Chlachidze, G.; Cho, K.; Chokheli, D.; Ciocci, M. A.; Clark, A.; Clarke, C.; Convery, M. E.; Conway, J.; Corbo, M.; Cordelli, M.; Cox, C. A.; Cox, D. J.; Cremonesi, M.; Cruz, D.; Cuevas, J.; Culbertson, R.; d'Ascenzo, N.; Datta, M.; De Barbaro, P.; Demortier, L.; Deninno, M.; d'Errico, M.; Devoto, F.; Di Canto, A.; Di Ruzza, B.; Dittmann, J. R.; D'Onofrio, M.; Donati, S.; Dorigo, M.; Driutti, A.; Ebina, K.; Edgar, R.; Elagin, A.; Erbacher, R.; Errede, S.; Esham, B.; Eusebi, R.; Farrington, S.; Fernández Ramos, J. P.; Field, R.; Flanagan, G.; Forrest, R.; Franklin, M.; Freeman, J. C.; Frisch, H.; Funakoshi, Y.; Garfinkel, A. F.; Garosi, P.; Gerberich, H.; Gerchtein, E.; Giagu, S.; Giakoumopoulou, V.; Gibson, K.; Ginsburg, C. M.; Giokaris, N.; Giromini, P.; Giurgiu, G.; Glagolev, V.; Glenzinski, D.; Gold, M.; Goldin, D.; Golossanov, A.; Gomez, G.; Gomez-Ceballos, G.; Goncharov, M.; González López, O.; Gorelov, I.; Goshaw, A. T.; Goulianos, K.; Gramellini, E.; Grinstein, S.; Grosso-Pilcher, C.; Group, R. C.; Guimaraes da Costa, J.; Hahn, S. R.; Han, J. Y.; Happacher, F.; Hara, K.; Hare, M.; Harr, R. F.; Harrington-Taber, T.; Hatakeyama, K.; Hays, C.; Heinrich, J.; Herndon, M.; Hocker, A.; Hong, Z.; Hopkins, W.; Hou, S.; Hughes, R. E.; Husemann, U.; Hussein, M.; Huston, J.; Introzzi, G.; Iori, M.; Ivanov, A.; James, E.; Jang, D.; Jayatilaka, B.; Jeon, E. J.; Jindariani, S.; Jones, M.; Joo, K. K.; Jun, S. Y.; Junk, T. R.; Kambeitz, M.; Kamon, T.; Karchin, P. E.; Kasmi, A.; Kato, Y.; Ketchum, W.; Keung, J.; Kilminster, B.; Kim, D. H.; Kim, H. S.; Kim, J. E.; Kim, M. J.; Kim, S. B.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, Y. J.; Kim, Y. K.; Kimura, N.; Kirby, M.; Knoepfel, K.; Kondo, K.; Kong, D. J.; Konigsberg, J.; Kotwal, A. V.; Kreps, M.; Kroll, J.; Kruse, M.; Kuhr, T.; Kurata, M.; Laasanen, A. T.; Lammel, S.; Lancaster, M.; Lannon, K.; Latino, G.; Lee, H. S.; Lee, J. S.; Leo, S.; Leone, S.; Lewis, J. D.; Limosani, A.; Lipeles, E.; Lister, A.; Liu, H.; Liu, Q.; Liu, T.; Lockwitz, S.; Loginov, A.; Lucà, A.; Lucchesi, D.; Lueck, J.; Lujan, P.; Lukens, P.; Lungu, G.; Lys, J.; Lysak, R.; Madrak, R.; Maestro, P.; Malik, S.; Manca, G.; Manousakis-Katsikakis, A.; Margaroli, F.; Marino, P.; Martínez, M.; Matera, K.; Mattson, M. E.; Mazzacane, A.; Mazzanti, P.; McNulty, R.; Mehta, A.; Mehtala, P.; Mesropian, C.; Miao, T.; Mietlicki, D.; Mitra, A.; Miyake, H.; Moed, S.; Moggi, N.; Moon, C. S.; Moore, R.; Morello, M. J.; Mukherjee, A.; Muller, Th.; Murat, P.; Mussini, M.; Nachtman, J.; Nagai, Y.; Naganoma, J.; Nakano, I.; Napier, A.; Nett, J.; Neu, C.; Nigmanov, T.; Nodulman, L.; Noh, S. Y.; Norniella, O.; Oakes, L.; Oh, S. H.; Oh, Y. D.; Oksuzian, I.; Okusawa, T.; Orava, R.; Ortolan, L.; Pagliarone, C.; Palencia, E.; Palni, P.; Papadimitriou, V.; Parker, W.; Pauletta, G.; Paulini, M.; Paus, C.; Phillips, T. J.; Piacentino, G.; Pianori, E.; Pilot, J.; Pitts, K.; Plager, C.; Pondrom, L.; Poprocki, S.; Potamianos, K.; Pranko, A.; Prokoshin, F.; Ptohos, F.; Punzi, G.; Ranjan, N.; Redondo Fernández, I.; Renton, P.; Rescigno, M.; Rimondi, F.; Ristori, L.; Robson, A.; Rodriguez, T.; Rolli, S.; Ronzani, M.; Roser, R.; Rosner, J. L.; Ruffini, F.; Ruiz, A.; Russ, J.; Rusu, V.; Sakumoto, W. K.; Sakurai, Y.; Santi, L.; Sato, K.; Saveliev, V.; Savoy-Navarro, A.; Schlabach, P.; Schmidt, E. E.; Schwarz, T.; Scodellaro, L.; Scuri, F.; Seidel, S.; Seiya, Y.; Semenov, A.; Sforza, F.; Shalhout, S. Z.; Shears, T.; Shepard, P. F.; Shimojima, M.; Shochet, M.; Shreyber-Tecker, I.; Simonenko, A.; Sinervo, P.; Sliwa, K.; Smith, J. R.; Snider, F. D.; Song, H.; Sorin, V.; Stancari, M.; Denis, R. St.; Stelzer, B.; Stelzer-Chilton, O.; Stentz, D.; Strologas, J.; Sudo, Y.; Sukhanov, A.; Suslov, I.; Takemasa, K.; Takeuchi, Y.; Tang, J.; Tecchio, M.; Teng, P. K.; Thom, J.; Thomson, E.; Thukral, V.; Toback, D.; Tokar, S.; Tollefson, K.; Tomura, T.; Tonelli, D.; Torre, S.; Torretta, D.; Totaro, P.; Trovato, M.; Ukegawa, F.; Uozumi, S.; Vázquez, F.; Velev, G.; Vellidis, C.; Vernieri, C.; Vidal, M.; Vilar, R.; Vizán, J.; Vogel, M.; Volpi, G.; Wagner, P.; Wallny, R.; Wang, S. M.; Warburton, A.; Waters, D.; Wester, W. C., III; Whiteson, D.; Wicklund, A. B.; Wilbur, S.; Williams, H. H.; Wilson, J. S.; Wilson, P.; Winer, B. L.; Wittich, P.; Wolbers, S.; Wolfe, H.; Wright, T.; Wu, X.; Wu, Z.; Yamamoto, K.; Yamato, D.; Yang, T.; Yang, U. K.; Yang, Y. C.; Yao, W.-M.; Yeh, G. P.; Yi, K.; Yoh, J.; Yorita, K.; Yoshida, T.; Yu, G. B.; Yu, I.; Zanetti, A. M.; Zeng, Y.; Zhou, C.; Zucchelli, S.

2013-08-01

We present the first signature-based search for delayed photons using an exclusive photon plus missing transverse energy final state. Events are reconstructed in a data sample from the CDF II detector corresponding to 6.3fb-1 of integrated luminosity from s=1.96TeV proton-antiproton collisions. Candidate events are selected if they contain a photon with an arrival time in the detector larger than expected from a promptly produced photon. The mean number of events from standard model sources predicted by the data-driven background model based on the photon timing distribution is 286±24. A total of 322 events are observed. A p value of 12% is obtained, showing consistency of the data with standard model predictions.

Evidence for solar wind modulation of lightning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, C. J.; Harrison, R. G.; Owens, M. J.; Lockwood, M.; Barnard, L.

2014-05-01

The response of lightning rates over Europe to arrival of high speed solar wind streams at Earth is investigated using a superposed epoch analysis. Fast solar wind stream arrival is determined from modulation of the solar wind V y component, measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft. Lightning rate changes around these event times are determined from the very low frequency arrival time difference (ATD) system of the UK Met Office. Arrival of high speed streams at Earth is found to be preceded by a decrease in total solar irradiance and an increase in sunspot number and Mg II emissions. These are consistent with the high speed stream’s source being co-located with an active region appearing on the Eastern solar limb and rotating at the 27 d period of the Sun. Arrival of the high speed stream at Earth also coincides with a small (˜1%) but rapid decrease in galactic cosmic ray flux, a moderate (˜6%) increase in lower energy solar energetic protons (SEPs), and a substantial, statistically significant increase in lightning rates. These changes persist for around 40 d in all three quantities. The lightning rate increase is corroborated by an increase in the total number of thunder days observed by UK Met stations, again persisting for around 40 d after the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream. This result appears to contradict earlier studies that found an anti-correlation between sunspot number and thunder days over solar cycle timescales. The increase in lightning rates and thunder days that we observe coincides with an increased flux of SEPs which, while not being detected at ground level, nevertheless penetrate the atmosphere to tropospheric altitudes. This effect could be further amplified by an increase in mean lightning stroke intensity that brings more strokes above the detection threshold of the ATD system. In order to remove any potential seasonal bias the analysis was repeated for daily solar wind triggers occurring during the summer months (June to August). Though this reduced the number of solar wind triggers to 32, the response in both lightning and thunder day data remained statistically significant. This modulation of lightning by regular and predictable solar wind events may be beneficial to medium range forecasting of hazardous weather.

Syntactic Prediction in Language Comprehension: Evidence From Either…or

PubMed Central

Staub, Adrian; Clifton, Charles

2006-01-01

Readers’ eye movements were monitored as they read sentences in which two noun phrases or two independent clauses were connected by the word or (NP-coordination and S-coordination, respectively). The word either could be present or absent earlier in the sentence. When either was present, the material immediately following or was read more quickly, across both sentence types. In addition, there was evidence that readers misanalyzed the S-coordination structure as an NP-coordination structure only when either was absent. The authors interpret the results as indicating that the word either enabled readers to predict the arrival of a coordination structure; this predictive activation facilitated processing of this structure when it ultimately arrived, and in the case of S-coordination sentences, enabled readers to avoid the incorrect NP-coordination analysis. The authors argue that these results support parsing theories according to which the parser can build predictable syntactic structure before encountering the corresponding lexical input. PMID:16569157

VANDENBERG AFB, CALIF. - The second stage of the Delta II launch vehicle for the Gravity Probe B experiment arrives at the mobile service tower on Space Launch Complex 2, Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. The Gravity Probe B will launch a payload of four gyroscopes into low-Earth polar orbit to test two extraordinary predictions of Albert Einstein’s general theory of relativity: the geodetic effect (how space and time are warped by the presence of the Earth) and frame dragging (how Earth’s rotation drags space and time around with it). Once in orbit, for 18 months each gyroscope’s spin axis will be monitored as it travels through local spacetime, observing and measuring these effects. The experiment was developed by Stanford University, Lockheed Martin and NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center. The targeted launch date is Dec. 6, 2003.

NASA Image and Video Library

2003-09-12

VANDENBERG AFB, CALIF. - The second stage of the Delta II launch vehicle for the Gravity Probe B experiment arrives at the mobile service tower on Space Launch Complex 2, Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. The Gravity Probe B will launch a payload of four gyroscopes into low-Earth polar orbit to test two extraordinary predictions of Albert Einstein’s general theory of relativity: the geodetic effect (how space and time are warped by the presence of the Earth) and frame dragging (how Earth’s rotation drags space and time around with it). Once in orbit, for 18 months each gyroscope’s spin axis will be monitored as it travels through local spacetime, observing and measuring these effects. The experiment was developed by Stanford University, Lockheed Martin and NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center. The targeted launch date is Dec. 6, 2003.

VANDENBERG AFB, CALIF. - The second stage of the Delta II launch vehicle for the Gravity Probe B experiment is lifted off the transporter after its arrival on Space Launch Complex 2, Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. The Gravity Probe B will launch a payload of four gyroscopes into low-Earth polar orbit to test two extraordinary predictions of Albert Einstein’s general theory of relativity: the geodetic effect (how space and time are warped by the presence of the Earth) and frame dragging (how Earth’s rotation drags space and time around with it). Once in orbit, for 18 months each gyroscope’s spin axis will be monitored as it travels through local spacetime, observing and measuring these effects. The experiment was developed by Stanford University, Lockheed Martin and NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center. The targeted launch date is Dec. 6, 2003.

NASA Image and Video Library

2003-09-18

VANDENBERG AFB, CALIF. - The second stage of the Delta II launch vehicle for the Gravity Probe B experiment is lifted off the transporter after its arrival on Space Launch Complex 2, Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. The Gravity Probe B will launch a payload of four gyroscopes into low-Earth polar orbit to test two extraordinary predictions of Albert Einstein’s general theory of relativity: the geodetic effect (how space and time are warped by the presence of the Earth) and frame dragging (how Earth’s rotation drags space and time around with it). Once in orbit, for 18 months each gyroscope’s spin axis will be monitored as it travels through local spacetime, observing and measuring these effects. The experiment was developed by Stanford University, Lockheed Martin and NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center. The targeted launch date is Dec. 6, 2003.

Multi-sensor investigation of the Sumatran Tsunami: observations and analysis of hydroacoustic, seismic, infrasonic, and tide gauge data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharyya, J.; Pulli, J.; Gibson, R.; Upton, Z.

2005-05-01

We present an analysis of the acoustic signals from the December 26, 2004 Sumatra earthquakes, in conjunction with the seismic and tide gauge information from the event. The M9.0 mainshock and its aftershocks were recorded by a suite of seismic sensors around the globe, giving us information on its location and the source process. Recently installed sensor assets in the Indian Ocean have enabled us to study additional features of this significant event. Hydroacoustic signals were recorded by three hydrophone arrays, and the direction finding capability of these arrays allows us to examine the location, time and extent of the T-wave generation process. We detect a clear variation of the back-azimuth that is consistent with the spatial extent of the source rupture. Recordings from nearly co-located seismometers provide insights into the acoustic-to-seismic conversion process for T-waves at islands, along with the variation in signal characteristics with source size. Two separate infrasound arrays detect the atmospheric signals generated by the event, along with additional observations of the seismic surface wave and the T-phase. We will present a comparison of the signals from the mainshock, as a function of location and size, with those from aftershocks and similar events in the nearby region. Our acoustic observations compare favorably with model predictions of wave propagation in the region. For the hydroacoustic data, the azimuth, arrival time, and signal blockage characteristics, from three separate arrays, associate the onset of the signal with the mainshock and with a time extent consistent with the rupture propagation. Our analysis of the T-phase travel times suggests that the seismic-to-acoustic conversion occurs more than 100 km from the epicenter. The infrasound signal's arrival time and signal duration are consistent with both stratospheric and thermospheric propagation from a source region near the mainshock. We use the tide gauge data from stations around the Indian Ocean to identify the arrival time of the Tsunami. The acoustic and seismic signals associated with the earthquakes arrive at the remote stations significantly ahead of the Tsunami. We combine the information from the various sensors to investigate the ability of the acoustic stations to detect the Tsunami.

Sampling interval analysis and CDF generation for grain-scale gravel bed topography

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In river hydraulics, there is a continuing need for characterizing bed elevations to arrive at quantitative roughness measures that can be used in predicting flow depth and for improved prediction of fine-sediment transport over and through coarse beds. Recently published prediction methods require...

Amplitude and angle of arrival measurements on a 28.56 GHz Earth-space path

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Devasirvatham, D. M. J.; Hodge, D. B.

1981-01-01

The amplitude and angle of arrival measurements on an Earth-space path using the 28.56 GHz COMSTAR D3 satellite beacon are described. These measurements were made by the Ohio State University ElectroScience Laboratory during the period September 1978 to September 1979. Monthly, quarterly, and annual distributions of attenuation, angle of arrival, and variance of both these parameters are reported. During this period, fades exceeding 29 dB for .00% of the time and angle of arrival fluctuations exceeding .12 degrees for .01% of the time were observed.

Climate and the complexity of migratory phenology: sexes, migratory distance, and arrival distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macmynowski, Dena P.; Root, Terry L.

2007-05-01

The intra- and inter-season complexity of bird migration has received limited attention in climatic change research. Our phenological analysis of 22 species collected in Chicago, USA, (1979 2002) evaluates the relationship between multi-scalar climate variables and differences (1) in arrival timing between sexes, (2) in arrival distributions among species, and (3) between spring and fall migration. The early migratory period for earliest arriving species (i.e., short-distance migrants) and earliest arriving individuals of a species (i.e., males) most frequently correlate with climate variables. Compared to long-distance migrant species, four times as many short-distance migrants correlate with spring temperature, while 8 of 11 (73%) of long-distance migrant species’ arrival is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While migratory phenology has been correlated with NAO in Europe, we believe that this is the first documentation of a significant association in North America. Geographically proximate conditions apparently influence migratory timing for short-distance migrants while continental-scale climate (e.g., NAO) seemingly influences the phenology of Neotropical migrants. The preponderance of climate correlations is with the early migratory period, not the median of arrival, suggesting that early spring conditions constrain the onset or rate of migration for some species. The seasonal arrival distribution provides considerable information about migratory passage beyond what is apparent from statistical analyses of phenology. A relationship between climate and fall phenology is not detected at this location. Analysis of the within-season complexity of migration, including multiple metrics of arrival, is essential to detect species’ responses to changing climate as well as evaluate the underlying biological mechanisms.

Associations between weather conditions during the first 45 days after feedlot arrival and daily respiratory disease risks in autumn-placed feeder cattle in the United States.

PubMed

Cernicchiaro, N; Renter, D G; White, B J; Babcock, A H; Fox, J T

2012-04-01

Data on associations between weather conditions and bovine respiratory disease (BRD) morbidity in autumn-placed feedlot cattle are sparse. The goal of our study was to quantify how different weather variables during corresponding lag periods (considering up to 7 d before the day of disease measure) were associated with daily BRD incidence during the first 45 d of the feeding period based on a post hoc analysis of existing feedlot operational data. Our study population included 1,904 cohorts of feeder cattle (representing 288,388 total cattle) that arrived to 9 US commercial feedlots during September to November in 2005 to 2007. There were 24,947 total cases of initial respiratory disease (animals diagnosed by the feedlots with BRD and subsequently treated with an antimicrobial). The mean number of BRD cases during the study period (the first 45 d after arrival) was 0.3 cases per day per cohort (range = 0 to 53.0), and cumulative BRD incidence risks ranged from 0 to 36% within cattle cohorts. Data were analyzed with a multivariable mixed-effects binomial regression model. Results indicate that several weather factors (maximum wind speed, mean wind chill temperature, and temperature change in different lag periods) were significantly (P < 0.05) associated with increased daily BRD incidence, but their effects depended on several cattle demographic factors (month of arrival, BRD risk code, BW class, and cohort size). In addition, month and year of arrival, sex of the cohort, days on feed, mean BW of the cohort at entry, predicted BRD risk designation of the cohort (high or low risk), cohort size, and the interaction between BRD risk code and arrival year were significantly (P < 0.05) associated with daily BRD incidence. Our results demonstrate that weather conditions are significantly associated with BRD risk in populations of feedlot cattle. Defining these conditions for specific cattle populations may enable cattle health managers to predict and potentially manage these effects more effectively; further, estimates of effects may contribute to the development of quantitative predictive models for this important disease syndrome.

Wind Information Uplink to Aircraft Performing Interval Management Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmad, Nashat N.; Barmore, Bryan E.; Swieringa, Kurt A.

2016-01-01

Interval Management (IM) is an ADS-B-enabled suite of applications that use ground and flight deck capabilities and procedures designed to support the relative spacing of aircraft (Barmore et al., 2004, Murdoch et al. 2009, Barmore 2009, Swieringa et al. 2011; Weitz et al. 2012). Relative spacing refers to managing the position of one aircraft to a time or distance relative to another aircraft, as opposed to a static reference point such as a point over the ground or clock time. This results in improved inter-aircraft spacing precision and is expected to allow aircraft to be spaced closer to the applicable separation standard than current operations. Consequently, if the reduced spacing is used in scheduling, IM can reduce the time interval between the first and last aircraft in an overall arrival flow, resulting in increased throughput. Because IM relies on speed changes to achieve precise spacing, it can reduce costly, low-altitude, vectoring, which increases both efficiency and throughput in capacity-constrained airspace without negatively impacting controller workload and task complexity. This is expected to increase overall system efficiency. The Flight Deck Interval Management (FIM) equipment provides speeds to the flight crew that will deliver them to the achieve-by point at the controller-specified time, i.e., assigned spacing goal, after the target aircraft crosses the achieve-by point (Figure 1.1). Since the IM and target aircraft may not be on the same arrival procedure, the FIM equipment predicts the estimated times of arrival (ETA) for both the IM and target aircraft to the achieve-by point. This involves generating an approximate four-dimensional trajectory for each aircraft. The accuracy of the wind data used to generate those trajectories is critical to the success of the IM operation. There are two main forms of uncertainty in the wind information used by the FIM equipment. The first is the accuracy of the forecast modeling done by the weather provider. This is generally a global environmental prediction obtained from a weather model such as the Rapid Refresh (RAP) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The weather forecast data will have errors relative to the actual, or truth, winds that the aircraft will encounter. The second source of uncertainty is that only a small subset of the forecast data can be uplinked to the aircraft for use by the FIM equipment. This results in loss of additional information. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and RTCA are currently developing standards for the communication of wind and atmospheric data to the aircraft for use in NextGen operations. This study examines the impact of various wind forecast sampling methods on IM performance metrics to inform the standards development.

Age and area predict patterns of species richness in pumice rafts contingent on oceanic climatic zone encountered.

PubMed

Velasquez, Eleanor; Bryan, Scott E; Ekins, Merrick; Cook, Alex G; Hurrey, Lucy; Firn, Jennifer

2018-05-01

The theory of island biogeography predicts that area and age explain species richness patterns (or alpha diversity) in insular habitats. Using a unique natural phenomenon, pumice rafting, we measured the influence of area, age, and oceanic climate on patterns of species richness. Pumice rafts are formed simultaneously when submarine volcanoes erupt, the pumice clasts breakup irregularly, forming irregularly shaped pumice stones which while floating through the ocean are colonized by marine biota. We analyze two eruption events and more than 5,000 pumice clasts collected from 29 sites and three climatic zones. Overall, the older and larger pumice clasts held more species. Pumice clasts arriving in tropical and subtropical climates showed this same trend, where in temperate locations species richness (alpha diversity) increased with area but decreased with age. Beta diversity analysis of the communities forming on pumice clasts that arrived in different climatic zones showed that tropical and subtropical clasts transported similar communities, while species composition on temperate clasts differed significantly from both tropical and subtropical arrivals. Using these thousands of insular habitats, we find strong evidence that area and age but also climatic conditions predict the fundamental dynamics of species richness colonizing pumice clasts.

Oximetry fails to predict acute mountain sickness or summit success during a rapid ascent to 5640 meters.

PubMed

Wagner, Dale R; Knott, Jonathan R; Fry, Jack P

2012-06-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether arterial oxygen saturation (Spo(2)) and heart rate (HR), as measured by a finger pulse oximeter on rapid arrival to 4260 m, could be predictive of acute mountain sickness (AMS) or summit success on a climb to 5640 m. Climbers (35.0 ± 10.1 years; 51 men, 5 women) were transported from 2650 m to the Piedra Grande hut at 4260 m on Pico de Orizaba within 2 hours. After a median time of 10 hours at the hut, they climbed toward the summit (5640 m) and returned, with a median trip time of 14 hours. The Lake Louise Self-Assessment Scale (LLSS) for AMS, HR, and Spo(2) were collected on arrival at the hut and repeated immediately before and after the climbers' summit attempts. Average Spo(2) for all participants at 4260 m before their departure for the summit was 84.4% ± 3.7%. Thirty-seven of the 56 participants reached the summit, and 59% of all climbers met the criteria for AMS during the ascent. The Spo(2) was not significantly different between those who experienced AMS and those who did not (P = .82); neither was there a difference in Spo(2) between summiteers and nonsummiteers (P = .44). Climbers' HR just before the summit attempt was not related to AMS but was significantly lower for summiteers vs nonsummiteers (P = .04). The Spo(2) does not appear to be predictive of AMS or summit success during rapid ascents. Copyright © 2012 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) Phase 1 Concept of Use (ConUse)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jung, Yoon; Engelland, Shawn; Capps, Richard; Coppenbarger, Rich; Hooey, Becky; Sharma, Shivanjli; Stevens, Lindsay; Verma, Savita; Lohr, Gary; Chevalley, Eric;

Arrival metering fuel consumption analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

Arrival metering is a method of time-based traffic management that is used by the Federal Aviation Administration to plan and manage streams of arrival traffic during periods of : high demand at busy airports. The Traffic Management Advisor is an aut...

Migration phenology and breeding success are predicted by methylation of a photoperiodic gene in the barn swallow

PubMed Central

Saino, Nicola; Ambrosini, Roberto; Albetti, Benedetta; Caprioli, Manuela; De Giorgio, Barbara; Gatti, Emanuele; Liechti, Felix; Parolini, Marco; Romano, Andrea; Romano, Maria; Scandolara, Chiara; Gianfranceschi, Luca; Bollati, Valentina; Rubolini, Diego

2017-01-01

Individuals often considerably differ in the timing of their life-cycle events, with major consequences for individual fitness, and, ultimately, for population dynamics. Phenological variation can arise from genetic effects but also from epigenetic modifications in DNA expression and translation. Here, we tested if CpG methylation at the poly-Q and 5′-UTR loci of the photoperiodic Clock gene predicted migration and breeding phenology of long-distance migratory barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) that were tracked year-round using light-level geolocators. Increasing methylation at Clock poly-Q was associated with earlier spring departure from the African wintering area, arrival date at the European breeding site, and breeding date. Higher methylation levels also predicted increased breeding success. Thus, we showed for the first time in any species that CpG methylation at a candidate gene may affect phenology and breeding performance. Methylation at Clock may be a candidate mechanism mediating phenological responses of migratory birds to ongoing climate change. PMID:28361883

Migration phenology and breeding success are predicted by methylation of a photoperiodic gene in the barn swallow.

PubMed

Saino, Nicola; Ambrosini, Roberto; Albetti, Benedetta; Caprioli, Manuela; De Giorgio, Barbara; Gatti, Emanuele; Liechti, Felix; Parolini, Marco; Romano, Andrea; Romano, Maria; Scandolara, Chiara; Gianfranceschi, Luca; Bollati, Valentina; Rubolini, Diego

2017-03-31

Individuals often considerably differ in the timing of their life-cycle events, with major consequences for individual fitness, and, ultimately, for population dynamics. Phenological variation can arise from genetic effects but also from epigenetic modifications in DNA expression and translation. Here, we tested if CpG methylation at the poly-Q and 5'-UTR loci of the photoperiodic Clock gene predicted migration and breeding phenology of long-distance migratory barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) that were tracked year-round using light-level geolocators. Increasing methylation at Clock poly-Q was associated with earlier spring departure from the African wintering area, arrival date at the European breeding site, and breeding date. Higher methylation levels also predicted increased breeding success. Thus, we showed for the first time in any species that CpG methylation at a candidate gene may affect phenology and breeding performance. Methylation at Clock may be a candidate mechanism mediating phenological responses of migratory birds to ongoing climate change.

Afterbody Heating Predictions for a Mars Science Laboratory Entry Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edquist, Karl T.

2005-01-01

The Mars Science Laboratory mission intends to deliver a large rover to the Martian surface within 10 km of its target site. One candidate entry vehicle aeroshell consists of a 3.75-m diameter, 70-deg sphere-cone forebody and a biconic afterbody similar to that of Viking. This paper presents computational fluid dynamics predictions of laminar afterbody heating rates for this configuration and a 2010 arrival at Mars. Computational solutions at flight conditions used an 8-species Mars gas model in chemical and thermal non-equilibrium. A grid resolution study examined the effects of mesh spacing on afterbody heating rates and resulted in grids used for heating predictions on a reference entry trajectory. Afterbody heating rate reaches its maximum value near 0.6 W/sq cm on the first windward afterbody cone at the time of peak freestream dynamic pressure. Predicted afterbody heating rates generally are below 3% of the forebody laminar nose cap heating rate throughout the design trajectory. The heating rates integrated over time provide total heat load during entry, which drives thermal protection material thickness.

First arrival time picking for microseismic data based on DWSW algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yue; Wang, Yue; Lin, Hongbo; Zhong, Tie

2018-03-01

The first arrival time picking is a crucial step in microseismic data processing. When the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is low, however, it is difficult to get the first arrival time accurately with traditional methods. In this paper, we propose the double-sliding-window SW (DWSW) method based on the Shapiro-Wilk (SW) test. The DWSW method is used to detect the first arrival time by making full use of the differences between background noise and effective signals in the statistical properties. Specifically speaking, we obtain the moment corresponding to the maximum as the first arrival time of microseismic data when the statistic of our method reaches its maximum. Hence, in our method, there is no need to select the threshold, which makes the algorithm more facile when the SNR of microseismic data is low. To verify the reliability of the proposed method, a series of experiments is performed on both synthetic and field microseismic data. Our method is compared with the traditional short-time and long-time average (STA/LTA) method, the Akaike information criterion, and the kurtosis method. Analysis results indicate that the accuracy rate of the proposed method is superior to that of the other three methods when the SNR is as low as - 10 dB.

Improving Interstellar Medium Mitigation in Millisecond PulsarTiming Models for Gravitational Wave Detection Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Robert C.

2018-01-01

This study aims to increase the sensitivity of pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) used by astronomers ofthe North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) to detectgravitational waves (GWs). Millisecond pulsars with many epochs of observations will be used todetermine if dispersive, frequency-dependent pulse time-of-arrival (TOA) delays caused by theinterstellar medium (ISM) can be more accurately predicted over numerous frequency channels.This project will contribute to the ongoing work to detect low-frequency GWs using PTAs. Dataused for this study will be from both the 110m telescope at the Green Bank Observatory in WestVirginia and the 305m telescope at the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico.

Order of arrival affects competition in two reef fishes.

PubMed

Geange, Shane W; Stier, Adrian C

2009-10-01

Many communities experience repeated periods of colonization due to seasonally regenerating habitats or pulsed arrival of young-of-year. When an individual's persistence in a community depends upon the strength of competitive interactions, changes in the timing of arrival relative to the arrival of a competitor can modify competitive strength and, ultimately, establishment in the community. We investigated whether the strength of intracohort competitive interactions between recent settlers of the reef fishes Thalassoma hardwicke and T. quinquevittatum are dependent on the sequence and temporal separation of their arrival into communities. To achieve this, we manipulated the sequence and timing of arrival of each species onto experimental patch reefs by simulating settlement pulses and monitoring survival and aggressive interactions. Both species survived best in the absence of competitors, but when competitors were present, they did best when they arrived at the same time. Survival declined as each species entered the community progressively later than its competitor and as aggression by its competitor increased. Intraspecific effects of resident T. hardwicke were similar to interspecific effects. This study shows that the strength of competition depends not only on the identity of competitors, but also on the sequence and timing of their interactions, suggesting that when examining interaction strengths, it is important to identify temporal variability in the direction and magnitude of their effects. Furthermore, our findings provide empirical evidence for the importance of competitive lotteries in the maintenance of species diversity in demographically open marine systems.

Technology-enabled Airborne Spacing and Merging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hull, James; Barmore, Bryan; Abbott, Tetence

2005-01-01

Over the last several decades, advances in airborne and groundside technologies have allowed the Air Traffic Service Provider (ATSP) to give safer and more efficient service, reduce workload and frequency congestion, and help accommodate a critically escalating traffic volume. These new technologies have included advanced radar displays, and data and communication automation to name a few. In step with such advances, NASA Langley is developing a precision spacing concept designed to increase runway throughput by enabling the flight crews to manage their inter-arrival spacing from TRACON entry to the runway threshold. This concept is being developed as part of NASA s Distributed Air/Ground Traffic Management (DAG-TM) project under the Advanced Air Transportation Technologies Program. Precision spacing is enabled by Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B), which provides air-to-air data exchange including position and velocity reports; real-time wind information and other necessary data. On the flight deck, a research prototype system called Airborne Merging and Spacing for Terminal Arrivals (AMSTAR) processes this information and provides speed guidance to the flight crew to achieve the desired inter-arrival spacing. AMSTAR is designed to support current ATC operations, provide operationally acceptable system-wide increases in approach spacing performance and increase runway throughput through system stability, predictability and precision spacing. This paper describes problems and costs associated with an imprecise arrival flow. It also discusses methods by which Air Traffic Controllers achieve and maintain an optimum interarrival interval, and explores means by which AMSTAR can assist in this pursuit. AMSTAR is an extension of NASA s previous work on in-trail spacing that was successfully demonstrated in a flight evaluation at Chicago O Hare International Airport in September 2002. In addition to providing for precision inter-arrival spacing, AMSTAR provides speed guidance for aircraft on converging routes to safely and smoothly merge onto a common approach. Much consideration has been given to working with operational conditions such as imperfect ADS-B data, wind prediction errors, changing winds, differing aircraft types and wake vortex separation requirements. A series of Monte Carlo simulations are planned for the spring and summer of 2004 at NASA Langley to further study the system behavior and performance under more operationally extreme and varying conditions. This will coincide with a human-in-the-loop study to investigate the flight crew interface, workload and acceptability.

Towards Supervising Remote Dexterous Robots Across Time Delay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hambuchen, Kimberly; Bluethmann, William; Goza, Michael; Ambrose, Robert; Wheeler, Kevin; Rabe, Ken

2006-01-01

The President s Vision for Space Exploration, laid out in 2004, relies heavily upon robotic exploration of the lunar surface in early phases of the program. Prior to the arrival of astronauts on the lunar surface, these robots will be required to be controlled across space and time, posing a considerable challenge for traditional telepresence techniques. Because time delays will be measured in seconds, not minutes as is the case for Mars Exploration, uploading the plan for a day seems excessive. An approach for controlling dexterous robots under intermediate time delay is presented, in which software running within a ground control cockpit predicts the intention of an immersed robot supervisor, then the remote robot autonomously executes the supervisor s intended tasks. Initial results are presented.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, B.; Kantowski, R.; Dai, X.

We compute time delays for gravitational lensing in a flat {Lambda} dominated cold dark matter Swiss cheese universe. We assume a primary and secondary pair of light rays are deflected by a single point mass condensation described by a Kottler metric (Schwarzschild with {Lambda}) embedded in an otherwise homogeneous cosmology. We find that the cosmological constant's effect on the difference in arrival times is nonlinear and at most around 0.002% for a large cluster lens; however, we find differences from time delays predicted by conventional linear lensing theory that can reach {approx}4% for these large lenses. The differences in predictedmore » delay times are due to the failure of conventional lensing to incorporate the lensing mass into the mean mass density of the universe.« less

Sensitivities of Near-field Tsunami Forecasts to Megathrust Deformation Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tung, S.; Masterlark, T.

2018-02-01

This study reveals how modeling configurations of forward and inverse analyses of coseismic deformation data influence the estimations of seismic and tsunami sources. We illuminate how the predictions of near-field tsunami change when (1) a heterogeneous (HET) distribution of crustal material is introduced to the elastic dislocation model, and (2) the near-trench rupture is either encouraged or suppressed to invert spontaneous coseismic displacements. Hypothetical scenarios of megathrust earthquakes are studied with synthetic Global Positioning System displacements in Cascadia. Finite-element models are designed to mimic the subsurface heterogeneity across the curved subduction margin. The HET lithospheric domain modifies the seafloor displacement field and alters tsunami predictions from those of a homogeneous (HOM) crust. Uncertainties persist as the inverse analyses of geodetic data produce nonrealistic slip artifacts over the HOM domain, which propagates into the prediction errors of subsequent tsunami arrival and amplitudes. A stochastic analysis further shows that the uncertainties of seismic tomography models do not degrade the solution accuracy of HET over HOM. Whether the source ruptures near the trench also controls the details of the seafloor disturbance. Deeper subsurface slips induce more seafloor uplift near the coast and cause an earlier arrival of tsunami waves than surface-slipping events. We suggest using the solutions of zero-updip-slip and zero-updip-slip-gradient rupture boundary conditions as end-members to constrain the tsunami behavior for forecasting purposes. The findings are important for the near-field tsunami warning that primarily relies on the near-real-time geodetic or seismic data for source calibration before megawaves hit the nearest shore upon tsunamigenic events.

Effect of the number of request calls on the time from call to hospital arrival: a cross-sectional study of an ambulance record database in Nara prefecture, Japan.

PubMed

Hanaki, Nao; Yamashita, Kazuto; Kunisawa, Susumu; Imanaka, Yuichi

2016-12-09

In Japan, ambulance staff sometimes must make request calls to find hospitals that can accept patients because of an inadequate information sharing system. This study aimed to quantify effects of the number of request calls on the time interval between an emergency call and hospital arrival. A cross-sectional study of an ambulance records database in Nara prefecture, Japan. A total of 43 663 patients (50% women; 31.2% aged 80 years and over): (1) transported by ambulance from April 2013 to March 2014, (2) aged 15 years and over, and (3) with suspected major illness. The time from call to hospital arrival, defined as the time interval from receipt of an emergency call to ambulance arrival at a hospital. The mean time interval from emergency call to hospital arrival was 44.5 min, and the mean number of requests was 1.8. Multilevel linear regression analysis showed that ∼43.8% of variations in transportation times were explained by patient age, sex, season, day of the week, time, category of suspected illness, person calling for the ambulance, emergency status at request call, area and number of request calls. A higher number of request calls was associated with longer time intervals to hospital arrival (addition of 6.3 min per request call; p<0.001). In an analysis dividing areas into three groups, there were differences in transportation time for diseases needing cardiologists, neurologists, neurosurgeons and orthopaedists. The study revealed 6.3 additional minutes needed in transportation time for every refusal of a request call, and also revealed disease-specific delays among specific areas. An effective system should be collaboratively established by policymakers and physicians to ensure the rapid identification of an available hospital for patient transportation in order to reduce the time from the initial emergency call to hospital arrival. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Effect of the number of request calls on the time from call to hospital arrival: a cross-sectional study of an ambulance record database in Nara prefecture, Japan

PubMed Central

Hanaki, Nao; Yamashita, Kazuto; Kunisawa, Susumu; Imanaka, Yuichi

2016-01-01

Objectives In Japan, ambulance staff sometimes must make request calls to find hospitals that can accept patients because of an inadequate information sharing system. This study aimed to quantify effects of the number of request calls on the time interval between an emergency call and hospital arrival. Design and setting A cross-sectional study of an ambulance records database in Nara prefecture, Japan. Cases A total of 43 663 patients (50% women; 31.2% aged 80 years and over): (1) transported by ambulance from April 2013 to March 2014, (2) aged 15 years and over, and (3) with suspected major illness. Primary outcome measures The time from call to hospital arrival, defined as the time interval from receipt of an emergency call to ambulance arrival at a hospital. Results The mean time interval from emergency call to hospital arrival was 44.5 min, and the mean number of requests was 1.8. Multilevel linear regression analysis showed that ∼43.8% of variations in transportation times were explained by patient age, sex, season, day of the week, time, category of suspected illness, person calling for the ambulance, emergency status at request call, area and number of request calls. A higher number of request calls was associated with longer time intervals to hospital arrival (addition of 6.3 min per request call; p<0.001). In an analysis dividing areas into three groups, there were differences in transportation time for diseases needing cardiologists, neurologists, neurosurgeons and orthopaedists. Conclusions The study revealed 6.3 additional minutes needed in transportation time for every refusal of a request call, and also revealed disease-specific delays among specific areas. An effective system should be collaboratively established by policymakers and physicians to ensure the rapid identification of an available hospital for patient transportation in order to reduce the time from the initial emergency call to hospital arrival. PMID:27940625

Impact of lean six sigma process improvement methodology on cardiac catheterization laboratory efficiency.

PubMed

Agarwal, Shikhar; Gallo, Justin J; Parashar, Akhil; Agarwal, Kanika K; Ellis, Stephen G; Khot, Umesh N; Spooner, Robin; Murat Tuzcu, Emin; Kapadia, Samir R

2016-03-01

Operational inefficiencies are ubiquitous in several healthcare processes. To improve the operational efficiency of our catheterization laboratory (Cath Lab), we implemented a lean six sigma process improvement initiative, starting in June 2010. We aimed to study the impact of lean six sigma implementation on improving the efficiency and the patient throughput in our Cath Lab. All elective and urgent cardiac catheterization procedures including diagnostic coronary angiography, percutaneous coronary interventions, structural interventions and peripheral interventions performed between June 2009 and December 2012 were included in the study. Performance metrics utilized for analysis included turn-time, physician downtime, on-time patient arrival, on-time physician arrival, on-time start and manual sheath-pulls inside the Cath Lab. After implementation of lean six sigma in the Cath Lab, we observed a significant improvement in turn-time, physician downtime, on-time patient arrival, on-time physician arrival, on-time start as well as sheath-pulls inside the Cath Lab. The percentage of cases with optimal turn-time increased from 43.6% in 2009 to 56.6% in 2012 (p-trend<0.001). Similarly, the percentage of cases with an aggregate on-time start increased from 41.7% in 2009 to 62.8% in 2012 (p-trend<0.001). In addition, the percentage of manual sheath-pulls performed in the Cath Lab decreased from 60.7% in 2009 to 22.7% in 2012 (p-trend<0.001). The current longitudinal study illustrates the impact of successful implementation of a well-known process improvement initiative, lean six sigma, on improving and sustaining efficiency of our Cath Lab operation. After the successful implementation of this continuous quality improvement initiative, there was a significant improvement in the selected performance metrics namely turn-time, physician downtime, on-time patient arrival, on-time physician arrival, on-time start as well as sheath-pulls inside the Cath Lab. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the real-time earthquake information system in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Hiromitsu; Horiuchi, Shigeki; Wu, Changjiang; Yamamoto, Shunroku; Rydelek, Paul A.

2009-01-01

The real-time earthquake information system (REIS) of the Japanese seismic network is developed for automatically determining earthquake parameters within a few seconds after the P-waves arrive at the closest stations using both the P-wave arrival times and the timing data that P-waves have not yet arrived at other stations. REIS results play a fundamental role in the real-time information for earthquake early warning in Japan. We show the rapidity and accuracy of REIS from the analysis of 4,050 earthquakes in three years since 2005; 44 percent of the first reports are issued within 5 seconds after the first P-wave arrival and 80 percent of the events have a difference in epicenter distance less than 20 km relative to manually determined locations. We compared the formal catalog to the estimated magnitude from the real-time analysis and found that 94 percent of the events had a magnitude difference of +/-1.0 unit.

Time structure of the EAS electron and muon components measured by the KASCADE Grande experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, W. D.; Arteaga, J. C.; Badea, A. F.; Bekk, K.; Bertaina, M.; Blümer, J.; Bozdog, H.; Brancus, I. M.; Brüggemann, M.; Buchholz, P.; Cantoni, E.; Chiavassa, A.; Cossavella, F.; Daumiller, K.; de Souza, V.; Di Pierro, F.; Doll, P.; Engel, R.; Engler, J.; Finger, M.; Fuhrmann, D.; Ghia, P. L.; Gils, H. J.; Glasstetter, R.; Grupen, C.; Haungs, A.; Heck, D.; Hörandel, J. R.; Huege, T.; Isar, P. G.; Kampert, K.-H.; Kickelbick, D.; Klages, H. O.; Kolotaev, Y.; Luczak, P.; Mathes, H. J.; Mayer, H. J.; Meurer, C.; Milke, J.; Mitrica, B.; Morello, C.; Navarra, G.; Nehls, S.; Oehlschläger, J.; Ostapchenko, S.; Over, S.; Petcu, M.; Pierog, T.; Plewnia, S.; Rebel, H.; Roth, M.; Schieler, H.; Sima, O.; Stümpert, M.; Toma, G.; Trinchero, G. C.; Ulrich, H.; van Buren, J.; Walkowiak, W.; Weindl, A.; Wochele, J.; Zabierowski, J.

2008-06-01

Extensive air showers measured by the KASCADE-Grande experiment at the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe are studied with respect to the arrival times of electrons and muons at observation level. The mean and the spread of the arrival time distributions have been used to determine the average time profile of the electromagnetic and muonic shower disk. For core distances R>200m particles of the muonic shower component arrive on average earlier at observation level than particles of the electromagnetic shower component. The difference increases with the core distance from Δ=(12.9±0.2)ns at R>200m to Δ=(47±1)ns at R=500m, where the width of the muonic and electromagnetic shower disks are comparable. This difference in arrival time is used to separate the electrons and muons dependent on the distance from the shower center. This is intended to be used by experiments with time resolving detectors.

Adapting to an invasive species: toxic cane toads induce morphological change in Australian snakes.

PubMed

Phillips, Ben L; Shine, Richard

2004-12-07

The arrival of invasive species can devastate natural ecosystems, but the long-term effects of invasion are less clear. If native organisms can adapt to the presence of the invader, the severity of impact will decline with time. In Australia, invasive cane toads (Bufo marinus) are highly toxic to most snakes that attempt to eat them. Because snakes are gape-limited predators with strong negative allometry for head size, maximum relative prey mass (and thus, the probability of eating a toad large enough to be fatal) decreases with an increase in snake body size. Thus, the arrival of toads should exert selection on snake morphology, favoring an increase in mean body size and a decrease in relative head size. We tested these predictions with data from specimens of four species of Australian snakes, collected over >80 years. Geographic information system layers provided data on the duration of toad exposure for each snake population, as well as environmental variables (latitude, precipitation, and temperature). As predicted, two toad-vulnerable species (Pseudechis porphyriacus and Dendrelaphis punctulatus) showed a steady reduction in gape size and a steady increase in body length with time since exposure to toads. In contrast, two species at low risk from toads (Hemiaspis signata and Tropidonophis mairii) showed no consistent change in these morphological traits as a function of the duration of toad exposure. These results provide strong evidence of adaptive changes in native predators as a result of the invasion of toxic prey.

Hybrid Markov-mass action law model for cell activation by rare binding events: Application to calcium induced vesicular release at neuronal synapses.

PubMed

Guerrier, Claire; Holcman, David

2016-10-18

Binding of molecules, ions or proteins to small target sites is a generic step of cell activation. This process relies on rare stochastic events where a particle located in a large bulk has to find small and often hidden targets. We present here a hybrid discrete-continuum model that takes into account a stochastic regime governed by rare events and a continuous regime in the bulk. The rare discrete binding events are modeled by a Markov chain for the encounter of small targets by few Brownian particles, for which the arrival time is Poissonian. The large ensemble of particles is described by mass action laws. We use this novel model to predict the time distribution of vesicular release at neuronal synapses. Vesicular release is triggered by the binding of few calcium ions that can originate either from the synaptic bulk or from the entry through calcium channels. We report here that the distribution of release time is bimodal although it is triggered by a single fast action potential. While the first peak follows a stimulation, the second corresponds to the random arrival over much longer time of ions located in the synaptic terminal to small binding vesicular targets. To conclude, the present multiscale stochastic modeling approach allows studying cellular events based on integrating discrete molecular events over several time scales.

An Investigation of the Combat Air Patrol Stationing in an Integrated Air Defense Scenario

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

interceptor to go to CAP station takes off at time t = 0. At time t = toc this interceptor arrives at station and, because no attacker arrives, it...has arrived on station and for this to be possible, the third interceptor has taken off at time t = toc + 2tn - to= = 2t. Meanwhile, the first...that tc > 0 and (tbc + tnp + tA) > 0. Under these assumptions we have that aircraft number 2 will always be used because ( toc + t= + tj, + te + tAI

The real-time SEP forecasting tools of the 'HESPERIA' HORIZON 2020 project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malandraki, Olga E.; Nunez, Marlon; Heber, Bernd; Labrenz, Johannes; Posner, Arik; Milas, Nick; Tsiropoula, Georgia; Pavlos, Evgenios; Sarlanis, Christos

2017-04-01

In this study, we describe the two real-time prediction tools, that have been developed in the framework of the HESPERIA project based upon the proven concepts UMASEP and REleASE. A major impact on human and robotic space exploration activities is the sudden and prompt occurrence of solar energetic ion events. The fact that near-relativistic electrons (1 MeV electrons have 95% of the speed of light) travel faster than ions (30 MeV protons have 25% of the speed of light) and are always present in Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events can be used to forecast the arrival of protons from SEP events with real-time measurements of near relativistic electrons. The faster electrons arrive at L1 30 to 90 minutes before the slower protons. The Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE) forecasting scheme (Posner, 2007) uses this effect to predict the proton flux by utilizing the actual electron flux and the increase of the electron flux in the last 60 minutes. In the framework of the HESPERIA project, a clone of the REleASE system was built in the open source programming language PYTHON. The same forecasting principle with use of the same forecasting matrices were in addition adapted to real-time electron flux measurements from the Electron, Proton & Alpha Monitor (EPAM) onboard the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). It is shown, that the REleASE forecasting scheme can be adapted to work with any near relativistic electron flux measurements. Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are sometimes energetic enough and the flux is high enough to cause air showers in the stratosphere and in the troposphere, which are an important ionization source in the atmosphere. >500 MeV solar protons are so energetic that they usually have effects on the ground, producing what is called a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) event. Within the HESPERIA project a predictor of >500 SEP proton events at the near-earth (e.g. at geostationary orbit) has been developed. In order to predict these events, the UMASEP scheme (Núñez, 2011, 2015) has been used. UMASEP makes a lag-correlation of solar electromagnetic (EM) flux with the particle flux at near-earth. If the correlation is high, the model infers that there is a magnetic connection through which particles are arriving. If, additionally, the intensity of the flux of the associated solar event is also high, then the UMASEP scheme issues a SEP prediction. In the case of the prediction of >500 MeV SEP events, the implemented system, called UMASEP-500, correlates X-ray flux with each of the differential proton fluxes measured by the GOES satellites, and with each of the neutron density fluxes collected by neutron monitor stations around the world. When the correlation estimation surpasses a threshold, and the associated flare is greater than a specific X-ray peak flux, a >500 MeV SEP forecast is issued. Both forecasting tools are operational under the HESPERIA server maintained at the National Observatory of Athens. Acknowledgement: This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637324 (HESPERIA project).

Impulse propagation in the nocturnal boundary layer: analysis of the geometric component.

PubMed

Blom, Philip; Waxler, Roger

2012-05-01

On clear dry nights over flat land, a temperature inversion and stable nocturnal wind jet lead to an acoustic duct in the lowest few hundred meters of the atmosphere. An impulsive signal propagating in such a duct is received at long ranges from the source as an extended wave train consisting of a series of weakly dispersed distinct arrivals followed by a strongly dispersed low-frequency tail. The leading distinct arrivals have been previously shown to be well modeled by geometric acoustics. In this paper, the geometric acoustics approximation for the leading arrivals is investigated. Using the solutions of the eikonal and transport equations, travel times, amplitudes, and caustic structures of the distinct arrivals have been determined. The time delay between and relative amplitudes of the direct-refracted and single ground reflection arrivals have been investigated as parameters for an inversion scheme. A two parameter quadratic approximation to the effective sound speed profile has been fit and found to be in strong agreement with meteorological measurements from the time of propagation.

ATD-2 IADS Metroplex Traffic Management Overview Brief

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engelland, Shawn

2016-01-01

ATD-2 will improve the predictability and the operational efficiency of the air traffic system in metroplex environments through the enhancement, development and integration of the nation's most advanced and sophisticated arrival, departure, and surface prediction, scheduling and management systems.

Low levels of vitamin B12 can persist in the early resettlement of refugees: symptoms, screening and monitoring.

PubMed

Benson, Jill; Phillips, Christine; Kay, Margaret; Hanifi, Hoda; Giri, Gauri; Leahy, Catherine; Lorimer, Michelle

2015-09-01

Many refugees have vitamin B12 (B12) deficiency. It has been assumed that deficiency would be predictable from macrocytosis or symptoms, and borderline levels would improve after a period of resettlement in countries rich with animal-source foods. We explored B12 levels and symptoms soon after the refugees' arrival and 4-8 months after settlement in Australia. Newly arrived refugees aged >18 years (n = 136) were tested for vitamin B12 and haematological indices. They also completed a language-validated questionnaire, which they repeated 4-8 months after arrival. B12 levels were reassessed in patients with levels ≤240 pmol at baseline. We found that 21 participants (15%) had low levels of B12 
(≤150 pmol/L) and 65 (48%) had borderline B12 levels 
(151-240 pmol/L). There was no relationship between B12 level and mean corpuscular volume, ferritin or symptoms. Borderline B12 levels persisted in 64% of participants at follow-up and deficiency developed in 11%. B12 levels cannot be predicted from macrocytosis or symptoms, and may not 'self-correct' after resettlement. Health assessments for newly arrived refugees should include B12 measurement and those with borderline levels should be followed up.

Nonlinear Localized Dissipative Structures for Long-Time Solution of Wave Equation

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-07-01

are described in this chapter. These details are required to compute interference. WC can be used to generate constant arrival time ( Eikonal phase...complicated using Eikonal schemes. Some recent developments in Eikonal methods [2] can treat multiple arrival times but, these methods require extra

Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility

PubMed Central

Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

2015-01-01

In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue. PMID:26322517

Tsunami magnetic signals in the Northwestern Pacific seafloor magnetic measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnepf, N. R.; An, C.; Nair, M. C.; Maus, S.

2013-12-01

In the past two decades, underwater cables and seafloor magnetometers have observed motional inductance from ocean tsunamis. This study aimed to characterize the electromagnetic signatures of tsunamis from seafloor stations to assist in the long-term goal of real-time tsunami detection and warning systems. Four ocean seafloor stations (T13, T14, T15, T18) in the Northeastern Philippine Sea collected vector measurements of the electric and magnetic fields every minute during the period of 10/05/2005 to 11/30/2007 (Baba et al., 2010 PEPI). During this time, four major tsunamis occurred as a result of moment magnitude 8.0-8.1 earthquakes. These tsunamis include the 05/03/2006 Tonga event, the 01/13/2007 Kuril Islands event, the 04/01/2007 Solomon Islands event, and the 08/15/2007 Peru event. The Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model (COMCOT) was used to predict the arrival time of the tsunamis at each of the seafloor stations. The stations' raw magnetic field signals underwent a high pass filter to then be examined for signals of the tsunami arrival. The high pass filtering showed clear tsunami signals for the Tonga event, but a clear signal was not seen for the other events. This may be due to signals from near Earth space with periods similar to tsunamis. To remove extraneous atmospheric magnetic signals, a cross-wavelet analysis was conducted using the horizontal field components from three INTERMAGNET land stations and the vertical component from the seafloor stations. The cross-wavelet analysis showed that for three of the six stations (two of the four tsunami events) the peak in wavelet amplitude matched the arrival of the tsunami. We discuss implications of our finding in magnetic monitoring of tsunamis.

High-resolution shallow structure revealed with ambient noise tomography on a dense array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, X.; Thurber, C. H.; Luo, Y.; Matzel, E.; Team, P.

2016-12-01

A dense seismic array was deployed by the PoroTomo research team at Brady Hot Springs, Nevada in March 2016. The array consisted of 238 short-period three-component geophones (5-Hz corner frequency) with about 60 m spacing. Over the 15 day deployment, the array recorded over 6,000 active source signals (vibroseis sweeps) and ambient noise that was dominated by traffic noise.We adopted the one-bit method to better reduce the effect of the active source. Spectral whitening was performed between 0.5 and 2 Hz. The continuous record was chopped into 1 minute segments. The 1-minute cross-correlation functions were initially stacked linearly, and then the phase-weighted stacking method was applied to improve signal quality. More than two million noise correlation functions (NCFs) have been obtained.The Rayleigh wave group velocity was measured on the symmetric component of the NCFs with the frequency-time analysis method. The average group velocity is about 400 m/s at 4 Hz, which is consistent with preliminary active source result. To avoid mis-picking possible precursors, the arrival time was picked at the peak in a two-second time window predicted with the average group velocity of the fundamental mode. The quality of the arrival measurements is defined by the signal-to-noise ratio. We were able to pick reliable arrivals at about 35% of the station-pairs. Since the straight-ray assumption may not be valid in a strongly heterogeneous medium, the wave path was traced with a finite difference scheme and the LSQR method was utilized to invert group velocity. The heterogeneous features of the group velocity map are consistent with a local geologic map. The PoroTomo project is funded by a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy.

Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

PubMed

Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

2015-01-01

In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

Separation of the electromagnetic and the muon component in EAS by their arrival times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brüggemann, M.; Apel, W.D.; Arteaga, J.C.; Badea, F.; Bekk, K.; Bertaina, M.; Blümer, J.; Bozdog, H.; Brancus, I.M.; Buchholz, P.; Chiavassa, A.; Cossavella, F.; Daumiller, K.; de Souza, V.; Di Pierro, F.; Doll, P.; Engel, R.; Engler, J.; Finger, M.; Fuhrmann, D.; Ghia, P.L.; Gils, H.J.; Glasstetter, R.; Grupen, C.; Haungs, A.; Heck, D.; Hörandel, J.R.; Huege, T.; Isar, P.G.; Kampert, K.-H.; Kickelbick, D.; Klages, H.O.; Kolotaev, Y.; Luczak, P.; Mathes, H.J.; Mayer, H.J.; Meurer, C.; Milke, J.; Mitrica, B.; Morales, A.; Morello, C.; Navarra, G.; Nehls, S.; Oehlschläger, J.; Ostapchenko, S.; Over, S.; Petcu, M.; Pierog, T.; Plewnia, S.; Rebel, H.; Roth, M.; Schieler, H.; Sima, O.; Stümpert, M.; Toma, G.; Trinchero, G.C.; Ulrich, H.; van Buren, J.; Walkowiak, W.; Weindl, A.; Wochele, J.; Zabierowski, J.

The KASCADE-Grande experiment at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Germany, measures extensive air showers initiated by primary particles with energies between 100 TeV and 1 EeV. Detector pulses digitized by a Flash-ADC based data acquisition system were unfolded to study the arrival times of secondary particles separately for the electromagnetic and the muonic shower component. Muons arrive on average earlier at ground level than electrons. A cut on the particle arrival time has been determined as a function of the distance to the shower core for the separation of electrons and muons. This cut is intended to be used for the determination of the muon content of air showers in experiments without dedicated muon detectors but with time resolving detector electronics. The muon content is essential for the reconstruction of the cosmic ray energy spectrum separated into individual elemental groups.

Empirical estimation of the arrival time of ICME Shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaltout, Mosalam

Empirical estimation of the arrival time of ICME Shocks Mosalam Shaltout1 ,M.Youssef 1and R.Mawad2 1 National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG) ,Helwan -Cairo-Egypt Email: mosalamshaltout@hotmail.com 2 Faculty of Science-Monifiia University-Physics Department-Shiben Al-Koum -Monifiia-Egypt We are got the Data of the SSC events from Preliminary Reports of the ISGI (Institut de Physique du Globe, France) .Also we are selected the same CME interval 1996-2005 from SOHO/LASCO/C2.We have estimated the arrival time of ICME shocks during solar cycle 23rd (1996-2005), we take the Sudden storm commencement SSC as a indicator of the arrival of CMEs at the Earth's Magnetosphere (ICME).Under our model ,we selected 203 ICME shock-SSC associated events, we got an imperial relation between CME velocity and their travel time, from which we obtained high correlation between them, R=0.75.

Validation of Rules to Predict Emergent Surgical Intervention in Pediatric Trauma Patients

PubMed Central

Boatright, Dowin H; Byyny, Richard L; Hopkins, Emily; Bakes, Katherine; Hissett, Jennifer; Tunson, Java; Easter, Joshua S; Vogel, Jody A; Bensard, Denis; Haukoos, Jason S

2014-01-01

Background Trauma centers use guidelines to determine when a trauma surgeon is needed in the emergency department (ED) on patient arrival. A decision rule from Loma Linda University identified patients with penetrating injury and tachycardia as requiring emergent surgical intervention. Our goal was to validate this rule and to compare it to the American College of Surgeons’ Major Resuscitation Criteria (MRC). Study Design We used data from 1993 through 2010 from two Level 1 trauma centers in Denver, Colorado. Patient demographics, injury severity, times of ED arrival and surgical intervention, and all variables of the Loma Linda Rule and the MRC were obtained. The outcome, emergent intervention (defined as requiring operative intervention by a trauma surgeon within one hour of arrival to the ED or performance of cricothyroidotomy or thoracotomy in the ED) was confirmed using standardized abstraction. Sensitivities, specificities, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Results 8,078 patients were included and 47 (0.6%) required emergent intervention. Of the 47 patients, the median age was 11 years (IQR: 7–14), 70% were male, 30% had penetrating mechanisms, and the median ISS was 25 (IQR: 9–41). At the two institutions, the Loma Linda Rule had a sensitivity and specificity of 69% (95% CI: 45%–94%) and 76% (95% CI: 69%–83%), respectively, and the MRC had a sensitivity and specificity of 80% (95% CI: 70%–92%) and 81% (95% CI: 77%–85%), respectively. Conclusions Emergent surgical intervention is rare in the pediatric trauma population. Although precision of predictive accuracies of the Loma Linda Rule and MRC were limited by small numbers of outcomes, neither set of criteria appears to be sufficiently accurate to recommend their routine use. PMID:23623222

Validation of the CME Geomagnetic Forecast Alerts Under the COMESEP Alert System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumbović, Mateja; Srivastava, Nandita; Rao, Yamini K.; Vršnak, Bojan; Devos, Andy; Rodriguez, Luciano

2017-08-01

Under the European Union 7th Framework Programme (EU FP7) project Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP, http://comesep.aeronomy.be), an automated space weather alert system has been developed to forecast solar energetic particles (SEP) and coronal mass ejection (CME) risk levels at Earth. The COMESEP alert system uses the automated detection tool called Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus) to detect potentially threatening CMEs, a drag-based model (DBM) to predict their arrival, and a CME geoeffectiveness tool (CGFT) to predict their geomagnetic impact. Whenever CACTus detects a halo or partial halo CME and issues an alert, the DBM calculates its arrival time at Earth and the CGFT calculates its geomagnetic risk level. The geomagnetic risk level is calculated based on an estimation of the CME arrival probability and its likely geoeffectiveness, as well as an estimate of the geomagnetic storm duration. We present the evaluation of the CME risk level forecast with the COMESEP alert system based on a study of geoeffective CMEs observed during 2014. The validation of the forecast tool is made by comparing the forecasts with observations. In addition, we test the success rate of the automatic forecasts (without human intervention) against the forecasts with human intervention using advanced versions of the DBM and CGFT (independent tools available at the Hvar Observatory website, http://oh.geof.unizg.hr). The results indicate that the success rate of the forecast in its current form is unacceptably low for a realistic operation system. Human intervention improves the forecast, but the false-alarm rate remains unacceptably high. We discuss these results and their implications for possible improvement of the COMESEP alert system.

A Case Study of Array-based Early Warning System for Tsunami Offshore Ventura, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Y.; Meng, L.

2017-12-01

Extreme scenarios of M 7.5+ earthquakes on the Red Mountain and Pitas Point faults can potentially generate significant local tsunamis in southern California. The maximum water elevation could be as large as 10 m in the nearshore region of Oxnard and Santa Barbara. Recent development in seismic array processing enables rapid tsunami prediction and early warning based on the back-projection approach (BP). The idea is to estimate the rupture size by back-tracing the seismic body waves recorded by stations at local and regional distances. A simplified source model of uniform slip is constructed and used as an input for tsunami simulations that predict the tsunami wave height and arrival time. We demonstrate the feasibility of this approach in southern California by implementing it in a simulated real-time environment and applying to a hypothetical M 7.7 Dip-slip earthquake scenario on the Pitas Point fault. Synthetic seismograms are produced using the SCEC broadband platform based on the 3D SoCal community velocity model. We use S-wave instead of P-wave to avoid S-minus-P travel times shorter than rupture duration. Two clusters of strong-motion stations near Bakersfield and Palmdale are selected to determine the back-azimuth of the strongest high-frequency radiations (0.5-1 Hz). The back-azimuths of the two clusters are then intersected to locate the source positions. The rupture area is then approximated by enclosing these BP radiators with an ellipse or a polygon. Our preliminary results show that the extent of 1294 square kilometers rupture area and magnitude of 7.6 obtained by this approach is reasonably close to the 1849 square kilometers and 7.7 of the input model. The average slip of 7.3 m is then estimated according to the scaling relation between slip and rupture area, which is close to the actual average dislocation amount, 8.3 m. Finally, a tsunami simulation is conducted to assess the wave height and arrival time. The errors of -3 to +9 s in arrival time and 0.4 m in wave amplitude are reasonably small for early warning purpose. The blind zone for early warning is the region north of the outcrop of Pitas Point faults and has a scale close to the length of the fault, 43 km. The warning time is above 15 min in the nearshore region west of Cojo Bay Beach and south of Oxnard.

Design of automation tools for management of descent traffic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erzberger, Heinz; Nedell, William

1988-01-01

The design of an automated air traffic control system based on a hierarchy of advisory tools for controllers is described. Compatibility of the tools with the human controller, a key objective of the design, is achieved by a judicious selection of tasks to be automated and careful attention to the design of the controller system interface. The design comprises three interconnected subsystems referred to as the Traffic Management Advisor, the Descent Advisor, and the Final Approach Spacing Tool. Each of these subsystems provides a collection of tools for specific controller positions and tasks. This paper focuses primarily on the Descent Advisor which provides automation tools for managing descent traffic. The algorithms, automation modes, and graphical interfaces incorporated in the design are described. Information generated by the Descent Advisor tools is integrated into a plan view traffic display consisting of a high-resolution color monitor. Estimated arrival times of aircraft are presented graphically on a time line, which is also used interactively in combination with a mouse input device to select and schedule arrival times. Other graphical markers indicate the location of the fuel-optimum top-of-descent point and the predicted separation distances of aircraft at a designated time-control point. Computer generated advisories provide speed and descent clearances which the controller can issue to aircraft to help them arrive at the feeder gate at the scheduled times or with specified separation distances. Two types of horizontal guidance modes, selectable by the controller, provide markers for managing the horizontal flightpaths of aircraft under various conditions. The entire system consisting of descent advisor algorithm, a library of aircraft performance models, national airspace system data bases, and interactive display software has been implemented on a workstation made by Sun Microsystems, Inc. It is planned to use this configuration in operational evaluations at an en route center.

Computer assisted thermal-vacuum testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petrie, W.; Mikk, G.

1977-01-01

In testing complex systems and components under dynamic thermal-vacuum environments, it is desirable to optimize the environment control sequence in order to reduce test duration and cost. This paper describes an approach where a computer is utilized as part of the test control operation. Real time test data is made available to the computer through time-sharing terminals at appropriate time intervals. A mathematical model of the test article and environmental control equipment is then operated on using the real time data to yield current thermal status, temperature analysis, trend prediction and recommended thermal control setting changes to arrive at the required thermal condition. The data acquisition interface and the time-sharing hook-up to an IBM-370 computer is described along with a typical control program and data demonstrating its use.

A study on the impact of prioritising emergency department arrivals on the patient waiting time.

PubMed

Van Bockstal, Ellen; Maenhout, Broos

2018-05-03

In the past decade, the crowding of the emergency department has gained considerable attention of researchers as the number of medical service providers is typically insufficient to fulfil the demand for emergency care. In this paper, we solve the stochastic emergency department workforce planning problem and consider the planning of nurses and physicians simultaneously for a real-life case study in Belgium. We study the patient arrival pattern of the emergency department in depth and consider different patient acuity classes by disaggregating the arrival pattern. We determine the personnel staffing requirements and the design of the shifts based on the patient arrival rates per acuity class such that the resource staffing cost and the weighted patient waiting time are minimised. In order to solve this multi-objective optimisation problem, we construct a Pareto set of optimal solutions via the -constraints method. For a particular staffing composition, the proposed model minimises the patient waiting time subject to upper bounds on the staffing size using the Sample Average Approximation Method. In our computational experiments, we discern the impact of prioritising the emergency department arrivals. Triaging results in lower patient waiting times for higher priority acuity classes and to a higher waiting time for the lowest priority class, which does not require immediate care. Moreover, we perform a sensitivity analysis to verify the impact of the arrival and service pattern characteristics, the prioritisation weights between different acuity classes and the incorporated shift flexibility in the model.

Fiber optic sensor employing successively destroyed coupled points or reflectors for detecting shock wave speed and damage location

DOEpatents

Weiss, Jonathan D.

1995-01-01

A shock velocity and damage location sensor providing a means of measuring shock speed and damage location. The sensor consists of a long series of time-of-arrival "points" constructed with fiber optics. The fiber optic sensor apparatus measures shock velocity as the fiber sensor is progressively crushed as a shock wave proceeds in a direction along the fiber. The light received by a receiving means changes as time-of-arrival points are destroyed as the sensor is disturbed by the shock. The sensor may comprise a transmitting fiber bent into a series of loops and fused to a receiving fiber at various places, time-of-arrival points, along the receiving fibers length. At the "points" of contact, where a portion of the light leaves the transmitting fiber and enters the receiving fiber, the loops would be required to allow the light to travel backwards through the receiving fiber toward a receiving means. The sensor may also comprise a single optical fiber wherein the time-of-arrival points are comprised of reflection planes distributed along the fibers length. In this configuration, as the shock front proceeds along the fiber it destroys one reflector after another. The output received by a receiving means from this sensor may be a series of downward steps produced as the shock wave destroys one time-of-arrival point after another, or a nonsequential pattern of steps in the event time-of-arrival points are destroyed at any point along the sensor.

Fiber optic sensor employing successively destroyed coupled points or reflectors for detecting shock wave speed and damage location

DOEpatents

Weiss, J.D.

1995-08-29

A shock velocity and damage location sensor providing a means of measuring shock speed and damage location is disclosed. The sensor consists of a long series of time-of-arrival ``points`` constructed with fiber optics. The fiber optic sensor apparatus measures shock velocity as the fiber sensor is progressively crushed as a shock wave proceeds in a direction along the fiber. The light received by a receiving means changes as time-of-arrival points are destroyed as the sensor is disturbed by the shock. The sensor may comprise a transmitting fiber bent into a series of loops and fused to a receiving fiber at various places, time-of-arrival points, along the receiving fibers length. At the ``points`` of contact, where a portion of the light leaves the transmitting fiber and enters the receiving fiber, the loops would be required to allow the light to travel backwards through the receiving fiber toward a receiving means. The sensor may also comprise a single optical fiber wherein the time-of-arrival points are comprised of reflection planes distributed along the fibers length. In this configuration, as the shock front proceeds along the fiber it destroys one reflector after another. The output received by a receiving means from this sensor may be a series of downward steps produced as the shock wave destroys one time-of-arrival point after another, or a nonsequential pattern of steps in the event time-of-arrival points are destroyed at any point along the sensor. 6 figs.

Crossing fitness canyons by a finite population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saakian, David B.; Bratus, Alexander S.; Hu, Chin-Kun

2017-06-01

We consider the Wright-Fisher model of the finite population evolution on a fitness landscape defined in the sequence space by a path of nearly neutral mutations. We study a specific structure of the fitness landscape: One of the intermediate mutations on the mutation path results in either a large fitness value (climbing up a fitness hill) or a low fitness value (crossing a fitness canyon), the rest of the mutations besides the last one are neutral, and the last sequence has much higher fitness than any intermediate sequence. We derive analytical formulas for the first arrival time of the mutant with two point mutations. For the first arrival problem for the further mutants in the case of canyon crossing, we analytically deduce how the mean first arrival time scales with the population size and fitness difference. The location of the canyon on the path of sequences has a crucial role. If the canyon is at the beginning of the path, then it significantly prolongs the first arrival time; otherwise it just slightly changes it. Furthermore, the fitness hill at the beginning of the path strongly prolongs the arrival time period; however, the hill located near the end of the path shortens it. We optimize the first arrival time by applying a nonzero selection to the intermediate sequences. We extend our results and provide a scaling for the valley crossing time via the depth of the canyon and population size in the case of a fitness canyon at the first position. Our approach is useful for understanding some complex evolution systems, e.g., the evolution of cancer.

Characterization of compounds by time-of-flight measurement utilizing random fast ions

DOEpatents

Conzemius, R.J.

1989-04-04

An apparatus is described for characterizing the mass of sample and daughter particles, comprising a source for providing sample ions; a fragmentation region wherein a fraction of the sample ions may fragment to produce daughter ion particles; an electrostatic field region held at a voltage level sufficient to effect ion-neutral separation and ion-ion separation of fragments from the same sample ion and to separate ions of different kinetic energy; a detector system for measuring the relative arrival times of particles; and processing means operatively connected to the detector system to receive and store the relative arrival times and operable to compare the arrival times with times detected at the detector when the electrostatic field region is held at a different voltage level and to thereafter characterize the particles. Sample and daughter particles are characterized with respect to mass and other characteristics by detecting at a particle detector the relative time of arrival for fragments of a sample ion at two different electrostatic voltage levels. The two sets of particle arrival times are used in conjunction with the known altered voltage levels to mathematically characterize the sample and daughter fragments. In an alternative embodiment the present invention may be used as a detector for a conventional mass spectrometer. In this embodiment, conventional mass spectrometry analysis is enhanced due to further mass resolving of the detected ions. 8 figs.

Characterization of compounds by time-of-flight measurement utilizing random fast ions

DOEpatents

Conzemius, Robert J.

1989-01-01

An apparatus for characterizing the mass of sample and daughter particles, comprising a source for providing sample ions; a fragmentation region wherein a fraction of the sample ions may fragment to produce daughter ion particles; an electrostatic field region held at a voltage level sufficient to effect ion-neutral separation and ion-ion separation of fragments from the same sample ion and to separate ions of different kinetic energy; a detector system for measuring the relative arrival times of particles; and processing means operatively connected to the detector system to receive and store the relative arrival times and operable to compare the arrival times with times detected at the detector when the electrostatic field region is held at a different voltage level and to thereafter characterize the particles. Sample and daughter particles are characterized with respect to mass and other characteristics by detecting at a particle detector the relative time of arrival for fragments of a sample ion at two different electrostatic voltage levels. The two sets of particle arrival times are used in conjunction with the known altered voltage levels to mathematically characterize the sample and daughter fragments. In an alternative embodiment the present invention may be used as a detector for a conventional mass spectrometer. In this embodiment, conventional mass spectrometry analysis is enhanced due to further mass resolving of the detected ions.

Processing of the Liquid Xenon calorimeter's signals for timing measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Epshteyn, L. B.; Yudin, Yu V.

2014-09-01

One of the goals of the Cryogenic Magnetic Detector at Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics SB RAS (Novosibirsk, Russia) is a study of nucleons production in electron-positron collisions near threshold. The neutron-antineutron pair production events can be detected only by the calorimeters. In the barrel calorimeter the antineutron annihilation typically occurs by 5 ns or later after beams crossing. For identification of such events it is necessary to measure the time of flight of particles to the LXe-calorimeter with accuracy of about 3 ns. The LXe-calorimeter consists of 14 layers of ionization chambers with anode and cathode readout. The duration of charge collection to the anodes is about 4.5 mks, while the required accuracy of measuring of the signal arrival time is less than 1/1000 of that. Besides, the signals' shapes differ substantially from event to event, so the signal arrival time is measured in two stages. At the first stage, the signal arrival time is determined with an accuracy of 1-2 discretization periods, and initial values of parameters for subsequent fitting procedure are calculated. At the second stage, the signal arrival time is determined with the required accuracy by means of fitting of the signal waveform with a template waveform. To implement that, a special electronics has been developed which performs waveform digitization and On-Line measurement of signals' arrival times and amplitudes.

Fluid dynamic modeling of nano-thermite reactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martirosyan, Karen S.; Zyskin, Maxim; Jenkins, Charles M.; Yuki Horie, Yasuyuki

2014-03-01

This paper presents a direct numerical method based on gas dynamic equations to predict pressure evolution during the discharge of nanoenergetic materials. The direct numerical method provides for modeling reflections of the shock waves from the reactor walls that generates pressure-time fluctuations. The results of gas pressure prediction are consistent with the experimental evidence and estimates based on the self-similar solution. Artificial viscosity provides sufficient smoothing of shock wave discontinuity for the numerical procedure. The direct numerical method is more computationally demanding and flexible than self-similar solution, in particular it allows study of a shock wave in its early stage of reaction and allows the investigation of "slower" reactions, which may produce weaker shock waves. Moreover, numerical results indicate that peak pressure is not very sensitive to initial density and reaction time, providing that all the material reacts well before the shock wave arrives at the end of the reactor.

Fluid dynamic modeling of nano-thermite reactions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martirosyan, Karen S., E-mail: karen.martirosyan@utb.edu; Zyskin, Maxim; Jenkins, Charles M.

2014-03-14

This paper presents a direct numerical method based on gas dynamic equations to predict pressure evolution during the discharge of nanoenergetic materials. The direct numerical method provides for modeling reflections of the shock waves from the reactor walls that generates pressure-time fluctuations. The results of gas pressure prediction are consistent with the experimental evidence and estimates based on the self-similar solution. Artificial viscosity provides sufficient smoothing of shock wave discontinuity for the numerical procedure. The direct numerical method is more computationally demanding and flexible than self-similar solution, in particular it allows study of a shock wave in its early stagemore » of reaction and allows the investigation of “slower” reactions, which may produce weaker shock waves. Moreover, numerical results indicate that peak pressure is not very sensitive to initial density and reaction time, providing that all the material reacts well before the shock wave arrives at the end of the reactor.« less

Comparison of helicopter and ground emergency medical service: a retrospective analysis of a German rescue helicopter base.

PubMed

Mommsen, Philipp; Bradt, Nikolas; Zeckey, Christian; Andruszkow, Hagen; Petri, Max; Frink, Michael; Hildebrand, Frank; Krettek, Christian; Probst, Christian

2012-01-01

In consideration of rising cost pressure in the German health care system, the usefulness of helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) in terms of time- and cost-effectiveness is controversially discussed. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether HEMS is associated with significantly decreased arrival and transportation times compared to ground EMS. In a retrospective study, we evaluated 1,548 primary emergency missions for time sensitive diagnoses (multiple trauma, traumatic brain and burn injury, heart-attack, stroke, and pediatric emergency) performed by a German HEMS using the medical database, NADIN, of the German Air Rescue Service. Arrival and transportation times were compared to calculated ground EMS times. HEMS showed significantly reduced arrival times at the scene in case of heart-attack, stroke and pediatric emergencies. In contrast, HEMS and ground EMS showed comparable arrival times in patients with multiple trauma, traumatic brain and burn injury due to an increased flight distance. HEMS showed a significantly decreased transportation time to the closest centre capable of specialist care in all diagnosis groups (p<0.001). The results of the present study indicate the time-effectiveness of German air ambulance services with significantly decreased transportation times.

The feasibility, time savings and economic impact of a designated time appointment system at a busy HIV care clinic in Kenya: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Kwena, Zachary A; Njoroge, Betty W; Cohen, Craig R; Oyaro, Patrick; Shikari, Rosemary; Kibaara, Charles K; Bukusi, Elizabeth A

2015-01-01

As efforts are made to reach universal access to ART in Kenya, the problem of congestion at HIV care clinics is likely to worsen. We evaluated the feasibility and the economic benefits of a designated time appointment system as a solution to decongest HIV care clinics. This was an explanatory two-arm open-label randomized controlled trial that enrolled 354 consenting participants during their normal clinic days and followed-up at subsequent clinic appointments for up to nine months. Intervention arm participants were given specific dates and times to arrive at the clinic for their next appointment while those in the control arm were only given the date and had the discretion to decide on the time to arrive as is the standard practice. At follow-up visits, we recorded arrival and departure times and asked the monetary value of work participants engaged in before and after clinic. We conducted multiple imputation to replace missing data in our primary outcome variables to allow for intention-to-treat analysis; and analyzed the data using Mann-Whitney U test. Overall, 72.1% of the intervention participants arrived on time, 13.3% arrived ahead of time and 14.6% arrived past scheduled time. Intervention arm participants spent a median of 65 [interquartile range (IQR), 52-87] minutes at the clinic compared to 197 (IQR, 173-225) minutes for control participants (p<0.01). Furthermore, intervention arm participants were more productively engaged on their clinic days valuing their cumulative work at a median of USD 10.5 (IQR, 60.0-16.8) compared to participants enrolled in the control arm who valued their work at USD 8.3 (IQR, 5.5-12.9; p=0.02). A designated time appointment system is feasible and provides substantial time savings associated with greater economic productivity for HIV patients attending a busy HIV care clinic.

Observation of arrival times of EAS with energies or = 6 x 10 (14) eV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sun, L.

1985-01-01

The Earth's atmosphere is continually being bombarded by primary cosmic ray particles which are generally believed to be high-energy nuclei. The fact that the majority of cosmic ray primaries are charged particles and that space is permeated with random magnetic fields, means that the particles do not travel in straight lines. The arrival time distribution of EAS may also transfer some information about the primary particles. Actually, if the particles come to our Earth in a completely random process, the arrival time distribution of pairs of successive particles should fit an exponential law. The work reported here was arried out at Sydney University from May 1982 to January 1983. All the data are used to plot the arrival-time distribution of the events, that is, the distribution of time-separation between consecutive events on a 1 minute bin size. During this period more than 2300 showers were recorded. The results are discussed and compared with that of some other experiments.

Tele-infrasonic studies of hard-rock mining explosions.

PubMed

McKenna, Mihan H; Stump, Brian W; Hayek, Sylvia; McKenna, Jason R; Stanton, Terry R

2007-07-01

The Lac-du-Bonnet infrasound station, IS-10, and the Minnesota iron mines 390 km to the southeast are ideally located to assess the accuracy of atmospheric profiles needed for infrasound modeling. Infrasonic data from 2003 associated with explosions at the iron mine were analyzed for effects of explosion size and atmospheric conditions on observations with well-constrained ground truth. Noise was the determining factor for observation; high noise conditions sometimes prevented unequivocal identification of infrasound arrivals. Observed arrivals had frequencies of 0.5 to 5 Hz, with a dominant frequency of 2 Hz, and generally had durations on the order of 10 s or less. There was no correlation between explosive amount and observability. Tele-infrasonic propagation distances (greater than 250 km) produce thermospheric ray paths. Modeling is based upon MSIS/HWM (Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter/Horizontal Wind Model) and NRL-G2S (Naval Research Laboratory Ground to Space) datasets. The NRL-G2S dataset provided more accurate travel time predictions that the MSIS/HWM dataset. PE modeling for the NRL-G2S dataset indicates energy loss at higher frequencies (around 4 Hz). Additionally, applying the Sutherland/Bass model through the NRL-G2S realization of the atmosphere in InfraMAP results in predicted amplitudes too small to be observed.

Accurate seismic phase identification and arrival time picking of glacial icequakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, G. A.; Doyle, S. H.; Dow, C.; Kulessa, B.; Hubbard, A.

2010-12-01

A catastrophic lake drainage event was monitored continuously using an array of 6, 4.5 Hz 3 component geophones in the Russell Glacier catchment, Western Greenland. Many thousands of events and arrival time phases (e.g., P- or S-wave) were recorded, often with events occurring simultaneously but at different locations. In addition, different styles of seismic events were identified from 'classical' tectonic earthquakes to tremors usually observed in volcanic regions. The presence of such a diverse and large dataset provides insight into the complex system of lake drainage. One of the most fundamental steps in seismology is the accurate identification of a seismic event and its associated arrival times. However, the collection of such a large and complex dataset makes the manual identification of a seismic event and picking of the arrival time phases time consuming with variable results. To overcome the issues of consistency and manpower, a number of different methods have been developed including short-term and long-term averages, spectrograms, wavelets, polarisation analyses, higher order statistics and auto-regressive techniques. Here we propose an automated procedure which establishes the phase type and accurately determines the arrival times. The procedure combines a number of different automated methods to achieve this, and is applied to the recently acquired lake drainage data. Accurate identification of events and their arrival time phases are the first steps in gaining a greater understanding of the extent of the deformation and the mechanism of such drainage events. A good knowledge of the propagation pathway of lake drainage meltwater through a glacier will have significant consequences for interpretation of glacial and ice sheet dynamics.

Lineage fusion in Galápagos giant tortoises.

PubMed

Garrick, Ryan C; Benavides, Edgar; Russello, Michael A; Hyseni, Chaz; Edwards, Danielle L; Gibbs, James P; Tapia, Washington; Ciofi, Claudio; Caccone, Adalgisa

2014-11-01

Although many classic radiations on islands are thought to be the result of repeated lineage splitting, the role of past fusion is rarely known because during these events, purebreds are rapidly replaced by a swarm of admixed individuals. Here, we capture lineage fusion in action in a Galápagos giant tortoise species, Chelonoidis becki, from Wolf Volcano (Isabela Island). The long generation time of Galápagos tortoises and dense sampling (841 individuals) of genetic and demographic data were integral in detecting and characterizing this phenomenon. In C. becki, we identified two genetically distinct, morphologically cryptic lineages. Historical reconstructions show that they colonized Wolf Volcano from Santiago Island in two temporally separated events, the first estimated to have occurred ~199 000 years ago. Following arrival of the second wave of colonists, both lineages coexisted for approximately ~53 000 years. Within that time, they began fusing back together, as microsatellite data reveal widespread introgressive hybridization. Interestingly, greater mate selectivity seems to be exhibited by purebred females of one of the lineages. Forward-in-time simulations predict rapid extinction of the early arriving lineage. This study provides a rare example of reticulate evolution in action and underscores the power of population genetics for understanding the past, present and future consequences of evolutionary phenomena associated with lineage fusion. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Erratum to Predictors of Death in Trauma Patients who are Alive on Arrival at Hospital.

PubMed

Lichtveld, Rob A; Panhuizen, Ivo F; Smit, Ronald B J; Holtslag, Hermann R; van der Werken, Christian

2007-04-01

To determine which factors predict death occurring in trauma patients who are alive on arrival at hospital Design Prospective cohort study Method Data were collected from 507 trauma patients with multiple injuries, with a Hospital Trauma Index-Injury Severity Score of 16 or more, who were initially delivered by the Emergency Medical Services to the Emergency Department of the University Medical Centre Utrecht (UMCU) during the period 1999-2000. Univariate analysis showed that every year of age increase resulted in a 2% greater risk of death. If the patient had been intubated at the scene of the accident, this risk was increased 4.3-fold. Every point of increase in the Triage Revised Trauma Score (T-RTS) reduced the risk of death by 30%. A similar (but inverse) tendency was found for the HTI-ISS score, with every point of increase resulting in a 5% greater risk of death. There was a clear relationship between the base excess (BE) and hemoglobin (Hb) levels and the risk of death, the latter being increased by 8% for each mmol/l drop in BE, and reduced by 22% for each mmol/l increase in Hb. The risk of death occurring was 2.6 times higher in cases with isolated neurotrauma. These associations hardly changed in the multivariate analysis; only the relation with having been intubated at the scene disappeared. The risk of severely injured accident patients dying after arriving in hospital is mainly determined by the T-RTS, age, presence of isolated neurological damage, BE and Hb level. Skull/brain damage and hemorrhage appear to be the most important causes of death in the first 24 h after the accident. The time interval between the accident and arrival at the hospital does not appear to affect the risk of death.

Time-to-contact estimation of accelerated stimuli is based on first-order information.

PubMed

Benguigui, Nicolas; Ripoll, Hubert; Broderick, Michael P

2003-12-01

The goal of this study was to test whether 1st-order information, which does not account for acceleration, is used (a) to estimate the time to contact (TTC) of an accelerated stimulus after the occlusion of a final part of its trajectory and (b) to indirectly intercept an accelerated stimulus with a thrown projectile. Both tasks require the production of an action on the basis of predictive information acquired before the arrival of the stimulus at the target and allow the experimenter to make quantitative predictions about the participants' use (or nonuse) of 1st-order information. The results show that participants do not use information about acceleration and that they commit errors that rely quantitatively on 1st-order information even when acceleration is psychophysically detectable. In the indirect interceptive task, action is planned about 200 ms before the initiation of the movement, at which time the 1st-order TTC attains a critical value. ((c) 2003 APA, all rights reserved)

Microeconomics. Harnessing naturally occurring data to measure the response of spending to income.

PubMed

Gelman, Michael; Kariv, Shachar; Shapiro, Matthew D; Silverman, Dan; Tadelis, Steven

2014-07-11

This paper presents a new data infrastructure for measuring economic activity. The infrastructure records transactions and account balances, yielding measurements with scope and accuracy that have little precedent in economics. The data are drawn from a diverse population that overrepresents males and younger adults but contains large numbers of underrepresented groups. The data infrastructure permits evaluation of a benchmark theory in economics that predicts that individuals should use a combination of cash management, saving, and borrowing to make the timing of income irrelevant for the timing of spending. As in previous studies and in contrast to the predictions of the theory, there is a response of spending to the arrival of anticipated income. The data also show, however, that this apparent excess sensitivity of spending results largely from the coincident timing of regular income and regular spending. The remaining excess sensitivity is concentrated among individuals with less liquidity. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Aide memoire for the management of gunshot wounds.

PubMed Central

MacFarlane, C.

2002-01-01

The hospitals in Johannesburg deal with about 4,000 gunshot wounds a year. Although most are from hand guns, a number are from high velocity, military-type weapons. Extensive experience has been built up and many lessons learned. Attention is directed to the actual damage inflicted rather than on theoretical predictions based on presumed velocity of the bullets involved, as this can often be misleading. Some patients are delayed in their presentation to emergency departments, in other cases several gunshot wound patients arrive at the same time, requiring appropriate triage and urgent management. PMID:12215024

Hydrogen Isotopes as a Sentinel of Biological Invasion by the Japanese Beetle, Popillia japonica (Newman)

PubMed Central

Ogle, Kiona; Caron, Melanie; Marks, Jane C.; Rogg, Helmuth W.

2016-01-01

Invasive species alter ecosystems, threaten native and endangered species, and have negative economic impacts. Knowing where invading individuals are from and when they arrive to a new site can guide management. Here, we evaluated how well the stable hydrogen isotope composition (δ2H) records the recent origin and time since arrival of specimens of the invasive Japanese beetle (Popillia japonica Newman) captured near the Portland International Airport (Oregon, U.S.A.). The δ2H of Japanese beetle specimens collected from sites across the contiguous U.S.A. reflected the δ2H of local precipitation, a relationship similar to that documented for other organisms, and one confirming the utility of δ2H as a geographic fingerprint. Within weeks after experimental relocation to a new isotopic environment, the δ2H of beetles changed linearly with time, demonstrating the potential for δ2H to also mark the timing of arrival to a new location. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the recent geographical origin and timing of arrival of each specimen based on its δ2H value. The geographic resolution was broad, with values consistent with multiple regions of origin in the eastern U.S.A., slightly favoring the southeastern U.S.A. as the more likely source. Beetles trapped from 2007–2010 had arrived 30 or more days prior to trapping, whereas the median time since arrival declined to 3–7 days for beetles trapped from 2012–2014. This reduction in the time between arrival and trapping at the Portland International Airport supports the efficacy of trapping and spraying to prevent establishment. More generally, our analysis shows how stable isotopes can serve as sentinels of biological invasions, verifying the efficacy of control measures, or, alternatively, indicating when those measures show signs of failure. PMID:26959686

CISN ShakeAlert: Improving the Virtual Seismologist (VS) earthquake early warning framework to provide faster, more robust warning information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, M.; Cua, G. B.; Wiemer, S.; Fischer, M.

2011-12-01

The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method is a Bayesian approach to regional network-based earthquake early warning (EEW) that uses observed phase arrivals, ground motion amplitudes and selected prior information to estimate earthquake magnitude, location and origin time, and predict the distribution of peak ground motion throughout a region using envelope attenuation relationships. Implementation of the VS algorithm in California is an on-going effort of the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zürich. VS is one of three EEW algorithms - the other two being ElarmS (Allen and Kanamori, 2003) and On-Site (Wu and Kanamori, 2005; Boese et al., 2008) - that form the basis of the California Integrated Seismic Network ShakeAlert system, a prototype end-to-end EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. The current prototype version of VS in California requires picks at 4 stations to initiate an event declaration. On average, taking into account data latency, variable station distribution, and processing time, this initial estimate is available about 20 seconds after the earthquake origin time, corresponding to a blind zone of about 70 km around the epicenter which would receive no warning, but where it would be the most useful. To increase the available warning time, we want to produce EEW estimates faster (with less than 4 stations). However, working with less than 4 stations with our current approach would increase the number of false alerts, for which there is very little tolerance in a useful EEW system. We explore the use of back-azimuth estimations and the Voronoi-based concept of not-yet-arrived data for reducing false alerts of the earliest VS estimates. The concept of not-yet-arrived data was originally used to provide evolutionary location estimates in EEW (Horiuchi, 2005; Cua and Heaton, 2007; Satriano et al. 2008). However, it can also be applied in discriminating between earthquake and non-earthquake signals. For real earthquakes, the constraints on earthquake location from the not-yet-arrived data and the back-azimuth estimations are consistent with location constraints from the available picks. For non-earthquake signals, these different location constraints are in most cases inconsistent. We use archived event data from the Northern and Southern California Seismic Networks as well as archived continuous waveform data from where the current VS codes erroneously declared events to quantify how using a combination of pick-based and not-yet-arrived data constraints can reduce VS false alert rates while providing faster warning information. The consistency of the pick-based and not-yet-arrived data constraints are mapped into the VS likelihood parameter, which reflects the degree of believe that the signals come from a real earthquake. This approach contributes towards improving the robustness of the Virtual Seismologist Multiple Threshold Event Detection (VS-MTED), which allows for single-station event declarations, when signal amplitudes are large enough.

First photon detection in time-resolved transillumination imaging: a theoretical evaluation.

PubMed

Behin-Ain, S; van Doorn, T; Patterson, J R

2004-09-07

First photon detection, as a special case of time-resolved transillumination imaging, is studied through the derivation of the temporal probability density function (pdf) for the first arriving photon. The pdf for different laser intensities, media and second and later arriving photons were generated. The arrival time of the first detected photon reduced as the laser power increased and also when the scattering and absorption coefficients decreased. The pdf for an imbedded totally absorbing 3 mm inhomogeneity may be distinguished from the pdf of a homogeneous turbid medium similar to that of human breast in dimensions and optical properties.

Contributed Review: Source-localization algorithms and applications using time of arrival and time difference of arrival measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xinya; Deng, Zhiqun Daniel; Rauchenstein, Lynn T.; Carlson, Thomas J.

2016-04-01

Locating the position of fixed or mobile sources (i.e., transmitters) based on measurements obtained from sensors (i.e., receivers) is an important research area that is attracting much interest. In this paper, we review several representative localization algorithms that use time of arrivals (TOAs) and time difference of arrivals (TDOAs) to achieve high signal source position estimation accuracy when a transmitter is in the line-of-sight of a receiver. Circular (TOA) and hyperbolic (TDOA) position estimation approaches both use nonlinear equations that relate the known locations of receivers and unknown locations of transmitters. Estimation of the location of transmitters using the standard nonlinear equations may not be very accurate because of receiver location errors, receiver measurement errors, and computational efficiency challenges that result in high computational burdens. Least squares and maximum likelihood based algorithms have become the most popular computational approaches to transmitter location estimation. In this paper, we summarize the computational characteristics and position estimation accuracies of various positioning algorithms. By improving methods for estimating the time-of-arrival of transmissions at receivers and transmitter location estimation algorithms, transmitter location estimation may be applied across a range of applications and technologies such as radar, sonar, the Global Positioning System, wireless sensor networks, underwater animal tracking, mobile communications, and multimedia.

Locating Microseism Sources Using Spurious Arrivals in Intercontinental Noise Correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retailleau, Lise; Boué, Pierre; Stehly, Laurent; Campillo, Michel

2017-10-01

The accuracy of Green's functions retrieved from seismic noise correlations in the microseism frequency band is limited by the uneven distribution of microseism sources at the surface of the Earth. As a result, correlation functions are often biased as compared to the expected Green's functions, and they can include spurious arrivals. These spurious arrivals are seismic arrivals that are visible on the correlation and do not belong to the theoretical impulse response. In this article, we propose to use Rayleigh wave spurious arrivals detected on correlation functions computed between European and United States seismic stations to locate microseism sources in the Atlantic Ocean. We perform a slant stack on a time distance gather of correlations obtained from an array of stations that comprises a regional deployment and a distant station. The arrival times and the apparent slowness of the spurious arrivals lead to the location of their source, which is obtained through a grid search procedure. We discuss improvements in the location through this methodology as compared to classical back projection of microseism energy. This method is interesting because it only requires an array and a distant station on each side of an ocean, conditions that can be met relatively easily.

Only Above Barrier Energy Components Contribute to Barrier Traversal Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galapon, Eric A.

2012-04-01

A time of arrival operator across a square potential barrier is constructed. The expectation value of the barrier time of arrival operator for a sufficiently localized incident wave packet is compared with the expectation value of the free particle time of arrival operator for the same wave packet. The comparison yields an expression for the expected traversal time across the barrier. It is shown that only the above barrier components of the momentum distribution of the incident wave packet contribute to the barrier traversal time, implying that below the barrier components are transmitted without delay. This is consistent with the recent experiment in attosecond ionization in helium indicating that there is no real tunneling delay time [P. Eckle , Science 322, 1525 (2008)SCIEAS0036-807510.1126/science.1163439].

Aging persons' estimates of vehicular motion.

PubMed

Schiff, W; Oldak, R; Shah, V

1992-12-01

Estimated arrival times of moving autos were examined in relation to viewer age, gender, motion trajectory, and velocity. Direct push-button judgments were compared with verbal estimates derived from velocity and distance, which were based on assumptions that perceivers compute arrival time from perceived distance and velocity. Experiment 1 showed that direct estimates of younger Ss were most accurate. Older women made the shortest (highly cautious) estimates of when cars would arrive. Verbal estimates were much lower than direct estimates, with little correlation between them. Experiment 2 extended target distances and velocities of targets, with the results replicating the main findings of Experiment 1. Judgment accuracy increased with target velocity, and verbal estimates were again poorer estimates of arrival time than direct ones, with different patterns of findings. Using verbal estimates to approximate judgments in traffic situations appears questionable.

Timelines in the management of adrenal crisis - targets, limits and reality.

PubMed

Hahner, Stefanie; Hemmelmann, Nina; Quinkler, Marcus; Beuschlein, Felix; Spinnler, Christina; Allolio, Bruno

2015-04-01

To evaluate current management timelines in adrenal crisis (AC) and to establish time targets and time limits for emergency treatment. Patients from a prospective study who had reported an AC (n = 46) were contacted and asked about management of their AC. A survey among 24 European endocrinologists collected expert recommendations concerning time targets and time limits for contact-arrival time of emergency health professionals and presentation of emergency card-glucocorticoid (GC) injection time. Median time targets and time limits regarded by experts as adequate for contact-arrival time were 45 and 90 min, respectively, and for card-injection time 15 and 30 min, respectively. Thirty-seven of 46 patients could be interviewed. All patients were equipped with an emergency card but only 23 (62%) with an emergency kit. Seven patients (19%) were trained in GC self-injection. The median time interval between contacting a health professional and arrival was 20 min (range 2-2880 min); ≤45 min: n = 32 (86%), <90 min: n = 34 (92%). The median time interval between arrival and administration of GC was 30 min (range 2-2400 min); ≤15 min: n = 17 (46%), ≤30 min: n = 20 (54%). While the time between contacting health professionals and their arrival was within the limits set by experts, initiation of GC administration was delayed in 46% of patients. Thus, improved management of AC needs to focus on shortening the presentation of card-injection time. Given the current reality in the management of AC, promotion of self-injection of GC (s.c. or i.m.) is warranted. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The impacts of the Samarco mine tailing spill on the Rio Doce estuary, Eastern Brazil.

PubMed

Gomes, Luiz Eduardo de Oliveira; Correa, Lucas Barreto; Sá, Fabian; Neto, Renato Rodrigues; Bernardino, Angelo Fraga

2017-07-15

Over 50 million cubic meters of mining tailings were released in the Rio Doce basin after the collapse of the Fundão dam (Samarco) in November 2015. Predicting significant impacts on the Rio Doce estuary, we sampled sediments to investigate short-term impacts on the benthic assemblages and trace metal accumulation on estuarine sediments. With the arrival of the tailing plumes in the estuary, we detected a predominance of clay particles and increased trace metal concentrations of up to 5 times in some areas. The rapid sedimentation after the impact also impacted estuarine macrofaunal assemblages through loss surface-dwelling taxa. As expected, the impacts on benthic assemblages observed up to 3days after the arrival of tailings were not clearly associated with trace metal concentrations, but long-term effects need to be studied. We recommend that the high spatial variability within the estuary be considered in future impact assessment studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of atmospheric models for tele-infrasonic propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, Mihan; Hayek, Sylvia

2005-04-01

Iron mines in Minnesota are ideally located to assess the accuracy of available atmospheric profiles used in infrasound modeling. These mines are located approximately 400 km away to the southeast (142) of the Lac-Du-Bonnet infrasound station, IS-10. Infrasound data from June 1999 to March 2004 was analyzed to assess the effects of explosion size and atmospheric conditions on observations. IS-10 recorded a suite of events from this time period resulting in well constrained ground truth. This ground truth allows for the comparison of ray trace and PE (Parabolic Equation) modeling to the observed arrivals. The tele-infrasonic distance (greater than 250 km) produces ray paths that turn in the upper atmosphere, the thermosphere, at approximately 120 km to 140 km. Modeling based upon MSIS/HWM (Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter/Horizontal Wind Model) and the NOGAPS (Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System) and NRL-GS2 (Naval Research Laboratory Ground to Space) augmented profiles are used to interpret the observed arrivals.

Strong SH-to-Love wave scattering off the Southern California Continental Borderland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yu, Chunquan; Zhan, Zhongwen; Hauksson, Egill; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

2017-01-01

Seismic scattering is commonly observed and results from wave propagation in heterogeneous medium. Yet, deterministic characterization of scatterers associated with lateral heterogeneities remains challenging. In this study, we analyze broadband waveforms recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network and observe strongly scattered Love waves following the arrival of teleseismic SH wave. These scattered Love waves travel approximately in the same (azimuthal) direction as the incident SH wave at a dominant period of ~10 s but at an apparent velocity of ~3.6 km/s as compared to the ~11 km/s for the SH wave. Back-projection suggests that this strong scattering is associated with pronounced bathymetric relief in the Southern California Continental Borderland, in particular the Patton Escarpment. Finite-difference simulations using a simplified 2-D bathymetric and crustal model are able to predict the arrival times and amplitudes of major scatterers. The modeling suggests a relatively low shear wave velocity in the Continental Borderland.

Assembly-history dynamics of a pitcher-plant protozoan community in experimental microcosms.

PubMed

Kadowaki, Kohmei; Inouye, Brian D; Miller, Thomas E

2012-01-01

History drives community assembly through differences both in density (density effects) and in the sequence in which species arrive (sequence effects). Density effects arise from predictable population dynamics, which are free of history, but sequence effects are due to a density-free mechanism, arising solely from the order and timing of immigration events. Few studies have determined how components of immigration history (timing, number of individuals, frequency) alter local dynamics to determine community assembly, beyond addressing when immigration history produces historically contingent assembly. We varied density and sequence effects independently in a two-way factorial design to follow community assembly in a three-species aquatic protozoan community. A superior competitor, Colpoda steinii, mediated alternative community states; early arrival or high introduction density allowed this species to outcompete or suppress the other competitors (Poterioochromonas malhamensis and Eimeriidae gen. sp.). Multivariate analysis showed that density effects caused greater variation in community states, whereas sequence effects altered the mean community composition. A significant interaction between density and sequence effects suggests that we should refine our understanding of priority effects. These results highlight a practical need to understand not only the "ingredients" (species) in ecological communities but their "recipes" as well.

Sex differences present in auditory looming perception, absent in auditory recession

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuhoff, John G.; Seifritz, Erich

2005-04-01

When predicting the arrival time of an approaching sound source, listeners typically exhibit an anticipatory bias that affords a margin of safety in dealing with looming objects. The looming bias has been demonstrated behaviorally in the laboratory and in the field (Neuhoff 1998, 2001), neurally in fMRI studies (Seifritz et al., 2002), and comparatively in non-human primates (Ghazanfar, Neuhoff, and Logothetis, 2002). In the current work, male and female listeners were presented with three-dimensional looming sound sources and asked to press a button when the source was at the point of closest approach. Females exhibited a significantly greater anticipatory bias than males. Next, listeners were presented with sounds that either approached or receded and then stopped at three different terminal distances. Consistent with the time-to-arrival judgments, female terminal distance judgments for looming sources were significantly closer than male judgments. However, there was no difference between male and female terminal distance judgments for receding sounds. Taken together with the converging behavioral, neural, and comparative evidence, the current results illustrate the environmental salience of looming sounds and suggest that the anticipatory bias for auditory looming may have been shaped by evolution to provide a selective advantage in dealing with looming objects.

Numerical models for afterburning of TNT detonation products in air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donahue, L.; Zhang, F.; Ripley, R. C.

2013-11-01

Afterburning occurs when fuel-rich explosive detonation products react with oxygen in the surrounding atmosphere. This energy release can further contribute to the air blast, resulting in a more severe explosion hazard particularly in confined scenarios. The primary objective of this study was to investigate the influence of the products equation of state (EOS) on the prediction of the efficiency of trinitrotoluene (TNT) afterburning and the times of arrival of reverberating shock waves in a closed chamber. A new EOS is proposed, denoted the Afterburning (AB) EOS. This EOS employs the JWL EOS in the high pressure regime, transitioning to a Variable-Gamma (VG) EOS at lower pressures. Simulations of three TNT charges suspended in a explosion chamber were performed. When compared to numerical results using existing methods, it was determined that the Afterburning EOS delays the shock arrival times giving better agreement with the experimental measurements in the early to mid time. In the late time, the Afterburning EOS roughly halved the error between the experimental measurements and results obtained using existing methods. Use of the Afterburning EOS for products with the Variable-Gamma EOS for the surrounding air further significantly improved results, both in the transient solution and the quasi-static pressure. This final combination of EOS and mixture model is recommended for future studies involving afterburning explosives, particularly those in partial and full confinement.

On improvement to the Shock Propagation Model (SPM) applied to interplanetary shock transit time forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, H. J.; Wei, F. S.; Feng, X. S.; Xie, Y. Q.

2008-09-01

This paper investigates methods to improve the predictions of Shock Arrival Time (SAT) of the original Shock Propagation Model (SPM). According to the classical blast wave theory adopted in the SPM, the shock propagating speed is determined by the total energy of the original explosion together with the background solar wind speed. Noting that there exists an intrinsic limit to the transit times computed by the SPM predictions for a specified ambient solar wind, we present a statistical analysis on the forecasting capability of the SPM using this intrinsic property. Two facts about SPM are found: (1) the error in shock energy estimation is not the only cause of the prediction errors and we should not expect that the accuracy of SPM to be improved drastically by an exact shock energy input; and (2) there are systematic differences in prediction results both for the strong shocks propagating into a slow ambient solar wind and for the weak shocks into a fast medium. Statistical analyses indicate the physical details of shock propagation and thus clearly point out directions of the future improvement of the SPM. A simple modification is presented here, which shows that there is room for improvement of SPM and thus that the original SPM is worthy of further development.

Evaluation of eight short-term long-range transport models using field data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carhart, R. A.; Policastro, A. J.; Wastag, M.; Coke, L.

Eight short-term long-range transport models (MESOPUFF, MESOPLUME, MSPUFF, MESOPUFF II, MTDDIS, ARRPA, RADM and RTM-II) have been tested with field data from two data bases involving tracer releases. The Oklahoma data base involved two separate experiments with measurements taken at 100 and 600 km arcs downwind of a 3-h perfluorocarbon release. The Savannah River Plant data base encompassed 15 experiments with measurements taken over 2-5 days at distances of 28-144 km downwind from a 62 m stack release of Kr-85 gas. Application of the American Meteorological Society statistics to the model/data comparisons showed that six of the eight models predicted within a factor of two of the observed concentrations for all of the following: points paired in space and time, points paired in space only, and for points unpaired in space and time. However, the ratio of the standard deviation of residuals to the average observed value showed improvement as more unpairing was done in the comparison of the models with the data. The statistical comparisons reveal a definite tendency of the models to overpredict plume concentrations. Supplemental graphical comparisons showed that plume concentration overprediction is accompanied with an underprediction of plume spreading, and that a definite time lag is often observed between the time of arrival of the observed plume and the time of arrival of the predicted plume. The causes of model/data discrepancies can be largely traced to inadequate wind field modeling that leads to an incorrect temporal and spatial positioning of the plume, and the use of the Turner [Workbook of atmospheric dispersion estimates. U.S. Dept of H.E.W. Publication 999-AP-26 (1970)] curves to downwind distances beyond which they can accurately represent the scales of atmospheric turbulence. The use of multilayer wind field models and the use of the Heffter [ J. appl. Met.4, 153-156 (1965)] formula for lateral plume dispersion close to the source appear to improve model accuracies.

Gender, Social Networks, and Stroke Preparedness in the Stroke Warning Information and Faster Treatment Study.

PubMed

Madsen, Tracy E; Roberts, Eric T; Kuczynski, Heather; Goldmann, Emily; Parikh, Nina S; Boden-Albala, Bernadette

2017-12-01

The study aimed to investigate the effect of gender on the association between social networks and stroke preparedness as measured by emergency department (ED) arrival within 3 hours of symptom onset. As part of the Stroke Warning Information and Faster Treatment study, baseline data on demographics, social networks, and time to ED arrival were collected from 1193 prospectively enrolled stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) patients at Columbia University Medical Center. Logistic regression was conducted with arrival to the ED ≤3 hours as the outcome, social network characteristics as explanatory variables, and gender as a potential effect modifier. Men who lived alone or were divorced were significantly less likely to arrive ≤3 hours than men who lived with a spouse (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: .31, 95% confidence interval [CI]: .15-0.64) or were married (aOR: .45, 95% CI: .23-0.86). Among women, those who lived alone or were divorced had similar odds of arriving ≤3 hours compared with those who lived with a spouse (aOR: 1.25, 95% CI: .63-2.49) or were married (aOR: .73, 95% CI: .4-1.35). In patients with stroke/TIA, living with someone or being married improved time to arrival in men only. Behavioral interventions to improve stroke preparedness should incorporate gender differences in how social networks affect arrival times. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Passive imaging of hydrofractures in the South Belridge diatomite

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ilderton, D.C.; Patzek, T.W.; Rector, J.W.

1996-03-01

The authors present the results of a seismic analysis of two hydrofractures spanning the entire diatomite column (1,110--1,910 ft or 338--582 m) in Shell`s Phase 2 steam drive pilot in South Belridge, California. These hydrofractures were induced at two depths (1,110--1,460 and 1,560--1,910 ft) and imaged passively using the seismic energy released during fracturing. The arrivals of shear waves from the cracking rock (microseismic events) were recorded at a 1 ms sampling rate by 56 geophones in three remote observation wells, resulting in 10 GB of raw data. These arrival times were then inverted for the event locations, from whichmore » the hydrofracture geometry was inferred. A five-dimensional conjugate-gradient algorithm with a depth-dependent, but otherwise constant shear wave velocity model (CVM) was developed for the inversions. To validate CVM, they created a layered shear wave velocity model of the formation and used it to calculate synthetic arrival times from known locations chosen at various depths along the estimated fracture plane. These arrival times were then inverted with CVM and the calculated locations compared with the known ones, quantifying the systematic error associated with the assumption of constant shear wave velocity. They also performed Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses on the synthetic arrival times to account for all other random errors that exist in field data. After determining the limitations of the inversion algorithm, they hand-picked the shear wave arrival times for both hydrofractures and inverted them with CVM.« less

Being prepared for acculturation: on the importance of the first months after immigrants enter a new culture.

PubMed

Ramelli, Marcella; Florack, Arnd; Kosic, Ankica; Rohmann, Anette

2013-01-01

We hypothesized that perceived communication effectiveness at arrival and initial friendships with members of the receiving society during the first months after arrival in a new country have a long-term effect on the development of acculturation orientations and that this effect is pronounced for individuals with a high need for cognitive closure (NCC). We examined the hypotheses in a study with Spanish-speaking immigrants in Switzerland (n = 146) and in Italy (n = 147). We asked participants to indicate their current attitude to contact with the receiving society and cultural maintenance and report retrospectively their perceived communication effectiveness at arrival and initial friendships. In line with the predictions, the perceptions of high communication effectiveness at arrival and friendships with members of the receiving society during the initial phase in the new culture were positively correlated with the current attitude to contact with the receiving society assessed 7 years after arrival on average. Also, initial friendships with members of the receiving society were negatively correlated with present cultural maintenance. Moreover, with an increase in NCC, these correlations increased.

Improved Location of Microseismic Events in Borehole Monitoring by Inclusion of Particle Motion Analysis: a Case Study at a CBM Field in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdhora Ry, Rexha; Septyana, T.; Widiyantoro, S.; Nugraha, A. D.; Ardjuna, A.

2017-04-01

Microseismic monitoring and constraining its hypocenters in and around hydrocarbon reservoirs provides insight into induced deformation related to hydraulic fracturing. In this study, we used data from a single vertical array of sensors in a borehole, providing measures of arrival times and polarizations. Microseismic events are located using 1-D velocity models and arrival times of P- and S-waves. However, in the case of all the sensors being deployed in a near-vertical borehole, there is a high ambiguity in the source location. Herein, we applied a procedure using azimuth of P-wave particle motion to constrain and improve the source location. We used a dataset acquired during 1-day of fracture stimulation at a CBM field in Indonesia. We applied five steps of location procedure to investigate microseismic events induced by these hydraulic fracturing activities. First, arrival times for 1584 candidate events were manually picked. Then we refined the arrival times using energy ratio method to obtain high consistency picking. Using these arrival times, we estimated back-azimuth using P-wave polarization analysis. We also added the combination of polarities analysis to remove 180° ambiguity. In the end, we determined hypocenter locations using grid-search method that guided in the back-azimuth trace area to minimize the misfit function of arrival times. We have successfully removed the ambiguity and produced a good solution for hypocenter locations as indicated statistically by small RMS. Most of the events clusters highlight coherent structures around the treatment well site and revealed faults. The same procedure can be applied to various other cases such as microseismic monitoring in the field of geothermal and shale gas/oil exploration, also CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) development.

Wavelet-based automatic determination of the P- and S-wave arrivals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogiatzis, P.; Ishii, M.

2013-12-01

The detection of P- and S-wave arrivals is important for a variety of seismological applications including earthquake detection and characterization, and seismic tomography problems such as imaging of hydrocarbon reservoirs. For many years, dedicated human-analysts manually selected the arrival times of P and S waves. However, with the rapid expansion of seismic instrumentation, automatic techniques that can process a large number of seismic traces are becoming essential in tomographic applications, and for earthquake early-warning systems. In this work, we present a pair of algorithms for efficient picking of P and S onset times. The algorithms are based on the continuous wavelet transform of the seismic waveform that allows examination of a signal in both time and frequency domains. Unlike Fourier transform, the basis functions are localized in time and frequency, therefore, wavelet decomposition is suitable for analysis of non-stationary signals. For detecting the P-wave arrival, the wavelet coefficients are calculated using the vertical component of the seismogram, and the onset time of the wave is identified. In the case of the S-wave arrival, we take advantage of the polarization of the shear waves, and cross-examine the wavelet coefficients from the two horizontal components. In addition to the onset times, the automatic picking program provides estimates of uncertainty, which are important for subsequent applications. The algorithms are tested with synthetic data that are generated to include sudden changes in amplitude, frequency, and phase. The performance of the wavelet approach is further evaluated using real data by comparing the automatic picks with manual picks. Our results suggest that the proposed algorithms provide robust measurements that are comparable to manual picks for both P- and S-wave arrivals.

A prospective evaluation of the contribution of ambient temperatures and transport times on infrared thermometry readings of intravenous fluids utilized in EMS patients.

PubMed

Joslin, Jeremy; Fisher, Andrew; Wojcik, Susan; Cooney, Derek R

2014-01-01

During cold weather months in much of the country, the temperatures in which prehospital care is delivered creates the potential for inadvertently cool intravenous fluids to be administered to patients during their transport and care by emergency medical services (EMS). There is some potential for patient harm from unintentional infusion of cool intravenous fluids. Prehospital providers in these cold weather environments are likely using fluids that are well below room temperature when prehospital intravenous fluid (IVF) warming techniques are not being employed. It was hypothesized that cold ambient temperatures during winter months in the study location would lead to the inadvertent infusion of cold intravenous fluids during prehospital patient care. Trained student research assistants obtained three sequential temperature measurements using an infrared thermometer in a convenience sample of intravenous fluid bags connected to patients arriving via EMS during two consecutive winter seasons (2011 to 2013) at our receiving hospital in Syracuse, New York. Intravenous fluids contained in anything other than a standard polyvinyl chloride bag were not measured and were not included in the study. Outdoor temperature was collected by referencing National Weather Service online data at the time of arrival. Official transport times from the scene to the emergency department (ED) and other demographic data was collected from the EMS provider or their patient care record at the time of EMS interaction. Twenty-three intravenous fluid bag temperatures were collected and analyzed. Outdoor temperature was significantly related to the temperature of the intravenous fluid being administered, b = 0.69, t(21) = 4.3, p < 0.001. Transport time did not predict the measured intravenous fluid temperatures, b = 0.12, t(20) = 0.55, p < 0.6. Use of unwarmed intravenous fluid in the prehospital environment during times of cold ambient temperatures can lead to the infusion of cool intravenous fluid and may result in harm to patients. Short transport times do not limit this risk. Emergency departments should not rely on EMS agencies' use of intravenous fluid warming techniques and should consider replacing EMS intravenous fluids upon ED arrival to ensure patient safety.

Shock Index Values and Trends in Pediatric Sepsis: Predictors or Therapeutic Targets? A Retrospective Observational Study.

PubMed

Ray, Samiran; Cvetkovic, Mirjana; Brierley, Joe; Lutman, Daniel H; Pathan, Nazima; Ramnarayan, Padmanabhan; Inwald, David P; Peters, Mark J

2016-09-01

Shock index (SI) (heart rate [HR]/systolic blood pressure [SBP]) has been used to predict outcome in both adult and pediatric sepsis within the intensive care unit (ICU). We aimed to evaluate the utility of SI before pediatric ICU (PICU) admission. We conducted a retrospective observational study of children referred to a pediatric intensive care transport service (PICTS) between 2005 and 2011. The predictive value of SI, HR, and blood pressure at three prespecified time points (at referral to PICTS, at PICTS arrival at the referring hospital, and at PICU admission) and changes in SI between the time points were evaluated. Death within the first 48 h of ICU admission (early death) was the primary outcome variable. Over the 7-year period, 633 children with sepsis were referred to the PICTS. Thirty-nine children died before transport to a PICU, whereas 474 were transported alive. Adjusting for age, time points, and time duration in a multilevel regression analysis, SI was significantly higher in those who died early. There was a significant improvement in SI with the transport team in survivors but not in nonsurvivors. However, the predictive value of a change in SI for mortality was no better than either a change in HR or blood pressure. The absolute or change in SI does not predict early death any more than HR and SBP individually in children with sepsis.

The prognostic and risk-stratified value of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein in septic patients in the emergency department.

PubMed

Chen, Yun-Xia; Li, Chun-Sheng

2014-08-01

To evaluate the prognostic and risk-stratified ability of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) in septic patients in the emergency department (ED). From August to November 2012, 295 consecutive septic patients were enrolled. Circulating H-FABP was measured. The predictive value of H-FABP for 28-day mortality, organ dysfunction on ED arrival, and requirement for mechanical ventilation or a vasopressor within 6 hours after ED arrival was assessed by the receiver operating characteristic curve and logistic regression and was compared with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. The 28-day mortality, APACHE II, MEDS, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores were much higher in H-FABP-positive patients. The incidence of organ dysfunction at ED arrival and requirement for mechanical ventilation or a vasopressor within 6 hours after ED arrival was higher in H-FABP-positive patients. Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein was an independent predictor of 28-day mortality and organ dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for H-FABP predicting 28-day mortality and organ dysfunction was 0.784 and 0.755, respectively. Combination of H-FABP and MEDS improved the performance of MEDS in predicting organ dysfunction, and the difference of AUC was statistically significant (P<.05). The combinations of H-FABP and MEDS or H-FABP and APACHE II also improved the prognostic value of MEDS and APACHE II, but the areas under the curve were not statistically different. Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein was helpful for prognosis and risk stratification of septic patients in the ED. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influences on emergency department length of stay for older people.

PubMed

Street, Maryann; Mohebbi, Mohammadreza; Berry, Debra; Cross, Anthony; Considine, Julie

2018-02-14

The aim of this study was to examine the influences on emergency department (ED) length of stay (LOS) for older people and develop a predictive model for an ED LOS more than 4 h. This retrospective cohort study used organizational data linkage at the patient level from a major Australian health service. The study population was aged 65 years or older, attending an ED during the 2013/2014 financial year. We developed and internally validated a clinical prediction rule. Discriminatory performance of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. An integer-based risk score was developed using multivariate logistic regression. The risk score was evaluated using ROC analysis. There were 33 926 ED attendances: 57.5% (n=19 517) had an ED LOS more than 4 h. The area under ROC for age, usual accommodation, triage category, arrival by ambulance, arrival overnight, imaging, laboratory investigations, overcrowding, time to be seen by doctor, ED visits with admission and access block relating to ED LOS more than 4 h was 0.796, indicating good performance. In the validation set, area under ROC was 0.80, P-value was 0.36 and prediction mean square error was 0.18, indicating good calibration. The risk score value attributed to each risk factor ranged from 2 to 68 points. The clinical prediction rule stratified patients into five levels of risk on the basis of the total risk score. Objective identification of older people at intermediate and high risk of an ED LOS more than 4 h early in ED care enables targeted approaches to streamline the patient journey, decrease ED LOS and optimize emergency care for older people.

Healthcare System Information at Language Schools for Newly Arrived Immigrants: A Pertinent Setting in Times of Austerity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tynell, Lena Lyngholt; Wimmelmann, Camilla Lawaetz; Jervelund, Signe Smith

2017-01-01

Objective: In most European countries, immigrants do not systematically learn about the host countries' healthcare system when arriving. This study investigated how newly arrived immigrants perceived the information they received about the Danish healthcare system. Methods: Immigrants attending a language school in Copenhagen in 2012 received…

Analysis of the Precision of Pulsar Time Clock Modeltwo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Cheng-shi; Tong, Ming-lei; Gao, Yu-ping; Yang, Ting-gao

2018-04-01

Millisecond pulsars have a very high rotation stability, which can be applied to many research fields, such as the establishment of the pulsar time standard, the detection of gravitational wave, the spacecraft navigation by using X-ray pulsars and so on. In this paper, we employ two millisecond pulsars PSR J0437-4715 and J1713+0743, which are observed by the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA), to analyze the precision of pulsar clock parameter and the prediction accuracy of pulse time of arrival (TOA). It is found that the uncertainty of spin frequency is 10-15 Hz, the uncertainty of the first derivative of spin frequency is 10-23 s-2, and the precision of measured rotational parameters increases by one order of magnitude with the accumulated observational data every 4∼5 years. In addition, the errors of TOAs within 4.8 yr which are predicted by the clock model established by the 10 yr data of J0437-4715 are less than 1 μs. Therefore, one can use the pulsar time standard to calibrate the atomic clock, and make the atomic time deviate from the TT (Terrestrial Time) less than 1 μs within 4.8 yr.

Improved Results for Route Planning in Stochastic Transportation Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyan, Justin; Mitzenmacher, Michael

2000-01-01

In the bus network problem, the goal is to generate a plan for getting from point X to point Y within a city using buses in the smallest expected time. Because bus arrival times are not determined by a fixed schedule but instead may be random. the problem requires more than standard shortest path techniques. In recent work, Datar and Ranade provide algorithms in the case where bus arrivals are assumed to be independent and exponentially distributed. We offer solutions to two important generalizations of the problem, answering open questions posed by Datar and Ranade. First, we provide a polynomial time algorithm for a much wider class of arrival distributions, namely those with increasing failure rate. This class includes not only exponential distributions but also uniform, normal, and gamma distributions. Second, in the case where bus arrival times are independent and geometric discrete random variable,. we provide an algorithm for transportation networks of buses and trains, where trains run according to a fixed schedule.

Joint inversion of gravity and arrival time data from Parkfield: New constraints on structure and hypocenter locations near the SAFOD drill site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roecker, S.; Thurber, C.; McPhee, D.

2004-01-01

Taking advantage of large datasets of both gravity and elastic wave arrival time observations available for the Parkfield, California region, we generated an image consistent with both types of data. Among a variety of strategies, the best result was obtained from a simultaneous inversion with a stability requirement that encouraged the perturbed model to remain close to a starting model consisting of a best fit to the arrival time data. The preferred model looks essentially the same as the best-fit arrival time model in areas where ray coverage is dense, with differences being greatest at shallow depths and near the edges of the model where ray paths are few. Earthquake locations change by no more than about 100 m, the general effect being migration of the seismic zone to the northeast, closer to the surface trace of the San Andreas Fault. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

How proton pulse characteristics influence protoacoustic determination of proton-beam range: simulation studies.

PubMed

Jones, Kevin C; Seghal, Chandra M; Avery, Stephen

2016-03-21

The unique dose deposition of proton beams generates a distinctive thermoacoustic (protoacoustic) signal, which can be used to calculate the proton range. To identify the expected protoacoustic amplitude, frequency, and arrival time for different proton pulse characteristics encountered at hospital-based proton sources, the protoacoustic pressure emissions generated by 150 MeV, pencil-beam proton pulses were simulated in a homogeneous water medium. Proton pulses with Gaussian widths ranging up to 200 μs were considered. The protoacoustic amplitude, frequency, and time-of-flight (TOF) range accuracy were assessed. For TOF calculations, the acoustic pulse arrival time was determined based on multiple features of the wave. Based on the simulations, Gaussian proton pulses can be categorized as Dirac-delta-function-like (FWHM < 4 μs) and longer. For the δ-function-like irradiation, the protoacoustic spectrum peaks at 44.5 kHz and the systematic error in determining the Bragg peak range is <2.6 mm. For longer proton pulses, the spectrum shifts to lower frequencies, and the range calculation systematic error increases (⩽ 23 mm for FWHM of 56 μs). By mapping the protoacoustic peak arrival time to range with simulations, the residual error can be reduced. Using a proton pulse with FWHM = 2 μs results in a maximum signal-to-noise ratio per total dose. Simulations predict that a 300 nA, 150 MeV, FWHM = 4 μs Gaussian proton pulse (8.0 × 10(6) protons, 3.1 cGy dose at the Bragg peak) will generate a 146 mPa pressure wave at 5 cm beyond the Bragg peak. There is an angle dependent systematic error in the protoacoustic TOF range calculations. Placing detectors along the proton beam axis and beyond the Bragg peak minimizes this error. For clinical proton beams, protoacoustic detectors should be sensitive to <400 kHz (for -20 dB). Hospital-based synchrocyclotrons and cyclotrons are promising sources of proton pulses for generating clinically measurable protoacoustic emissions.

Process improvement to enhance existing stroke team activity toward more timely thrombolytic treatment.

PubMed

Cho, Han-Jin; Lee, Kyung Yul; Nam, Hyo Suk; Kim, Young Dae; Song, Tae-Jin; Jung, Yo Han; Choi, Hye-Yeon; Heo, Ji Hoe

2014-10-01

Process improvement (PI) is an approach for enhancing the existing quality improvement process by making changes while keeping the existing process. We have shown that implementation of a stroke code program using a computerized physician order entry system is effective in reducing the in-hospital time delay to thrombolysis in acute stroke patients. We investigated whether implementation of this PI could further reduce the time delays by continuous improvement of the existing process. After determining a key indicator [time interval from emergency department (ED) arrival to intravenous (IV) thrombolysis] and conducting data analysis, the target time from ED arrival to IV thrombolysis in acute stroke patients was set at 40 min. The key indicator was monitored continuously at a weekly stroke conference. The possible reasons for the delay were determined in cases for which IV thrombolysis was not administered within the target time and, where possible, the problems were corrected. The time intervals from ED arrival to the various evaluation steps and treatment before and after implementation of the PI were compared. The median time interval from ED arrival to IV thrombolysis in acute stroke patients was significantly reduced after implementation of the PI (from 63.5 to 45 min, p=0.001). The variation in the time interval was also reduced. A reduction in the evaluation time intervals was achieved after the PI [from 23 to 17 min for computed tomography scanning (p=0.003) and from 35 to 29 min for complete blood counts (p=0.006)]. PI is effective for continuous improvement of the existing process by reducing the time delays between ED arrival and IV thrombolysis in acute stroke patients.

KSC-03PD-2742

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2003-01-01

VANDENBERG AFB, CALIF. Enclosed in a canister, the Gravity Probe B (GP-B) spacecraft arrives on Vandenberg Air Force Base, headed for the spacecraft processing facility. Gravity Probe B will launch a payload of four gyroscopes into low-Earth polar orbit to test two extraordinary predictions of Albert Einsteins general theory of relativity: the geodetic effect (how space and time are warped by the presence of the Earth) and frame dragging (how Earths rotation drags space and time around with it). Once in orbit, for 18 months each gyroscopes spin axis will be monitored as it travels through local spacetime, observing and measuring these effects. The experiment was developed by Stanford University, Lockheed Martin and NASAs Marshall Space Flight Center.

KSC-03PD-2743

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2003-01-01

VANDENBERG AFB, CALIF. Enclosed in a canister, the Gravity Probe B (GP-B) spacecraft arrives at the spacecraft processing facility on North Vandenberg Air Force Base . Gravity Probe B will launch a payload of four gyroscopes into low-Earth polar orbit to test two extraordinary predictions of Albert Einsteins general theory of relativity: the geodetic effect (how space and time are warped by the presence of the Earth) and frame dragging (how Earths rotation drags space and time around with it). Once in orbit, for 18 months each gyroscopes spin axis will be monitored as it travels through local spacetime, observing and measuring these effects. The experiment was developed by Stanford University, Lockheed Martin and NASAs Marshall Space Flight Center.

Real-time neural network earthquake profile predictor

DOEpatents

Leach, R.R.; Dowla, F.U.

1996-02-06

A neural network has been developed that uses first-arrival energy to predict the characteristics of impending earthquake seismograph signals. The propagation of ground motion energy through the earth is a highly nonlinear function. This is due to different forms of ground motion as well as to changes in the elastic properties of the media throughout the propagation path. The neural network is trained using seismogram data from earthquakes. Presented with a previously unseen earthquake, the neural network produces a profile of the complete earthquake signal using data from the first seconds of the signal. This offers a significant advance in the real-time monitoring, warning, and subsequent hazard minimization of catastrophic ground motion. 17 figs.

Gravity Probe B

NASA Image and Video Library

2003-07-12

Enclosed in a canister, the Gravity Probe B (GP-B) spacecraft arrives on Vandenberg Air Force Base, headed for the spacecraft processing facility. Gravity Probe B will launch a payload of four gyroscopes into low-Earth polar orbit to test two extraordinary predictions of Albert Einstein’s general theory of relativity: the geodetic effect (how space and time are warped by the presence of the Earth) and frame dragging (how Earth’s rotation drags space and time around with it). Once in orbit, for 18 months each gyroscope’s spin axis will be monitored as it travels through local spacetime, observing and measuring these effects. The experiment was developed by Stanford University, Lockheed Martin and NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center.

Real-time neural network earthquake profile predictor

DOEpatents

Leach, Richard R.; Dowla, Farid U.

1996-01-01

A neural network has been developed that uses first-arrival energy to predict the characteristics of impending earthquake seismograph signals. The propagation of ground motion energy through the earth is a highly nonlinear function. This is due to different forms of ground motion as well as to changes in the elastic properties of the media throughout the propagation path. The neural network is trained using seismogram data from earthquakes. Presented with a previously unseen earthquake, the neural network produces a profile of the complete earthquake signal using data from the first seconds of the signal. This offers a significant advance in the real-time monitoring, warning, and subsequent hazard minimization of catastrophic ground motion.

Angle-of-arrival variance of waves and rays in strong atmospheric scattering: split-step simulation results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voelz, David; Wijerathna, Erandi; Xiao, Xifeng; Muschinski, Andreas

2017-09-01

The analysis of optical propagation through both deterministic and stochastic refractive-index fields may be substantially simplified if diffraction effects can be neglected. With regard to simplification, it is known that certain geometricaloptics predictions often agree well with field observations but it is not always clear why this is so. Here, a new investigation of this issue is presented involving wave optics and geometrical (ray) optics computer simulations of a beam of visible light propagating through fully turbulent, homogeneous and isotropic refractive-index fields. We compare the computationally simulated, aperture-averaged angle-of-arrival variances (for aperture diameters ranging from 0.5 to 13 Fresnel lengths) with theoretical predictions based on the Rytov theory.

Air traffic management evaluation tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sridhar, Banavar (Inventor); Chatterji, Gano Broto (Inventor); Schipper, John F. (Inventor); Bilimoria, Karl D. (Inventor); Grabbe, Shon (Inventor); Sheth, Kapil S. (Inventor)

2012-01-01

Methods for evaluating and implementing air traffic management tools and approaches for managing and avoiding an air traffic incident before the incident occurs. A first system receives parameters for flight plan configurations (e.g., initial fuel carried, flight route, flight route segments followed, flight altitude for a given flight route segment, aircraft velocity for each flight route segment, flight route ascent rate, flight route descent route, flight departure site, flight departure time, flight arrival time, flight destination site and/or alternate flight destination site), flight plan schedule, expected weather along each flight route segment, aircraft specifics, airspace (altitude) bounds for each flight route segment, navigational aids available. The invention provides flight plan routing and direct routing or wind optimal routing, using great circle navigation and spherical Earth geometry. The invention provides for aircraft dynamics effects, such as wind effects at each altitude, altitude changes, airspeed changes and aircraft turns to provide predictions of aircraft trajectory (and, optionally, aircraft fuel use). A second system provides several aviation applications using the first system. Several classes of potential incidents are analyzed and averted, by appropriate change en route of one or more parameters in the flight plan configuration, as provided by a conflict detection and resolution module and/or traffic flow management modules. These applications include conflict detection and resolution, miles-in trail or minutes-in-trail aircraft separation, flight arrival management, flight re-routing, weather prediction and analysis and interpolation of weather variables based upon sparse measurements. The invention combines these features to provide an aircraft monitoring system and an aircraft user system that interact and negotiate changes with each other.

A scheme for a shot-to-shot, femtosecond-resolved pulse length and arrival time measurement of free electron laser x-ray pulses that overcomes the time jitter problem between the FEL and the laser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juranić, P. N.; Stepanov, A.; Peier, P.; Hauri, C. P.; Ischebeck, R.; Schlott, V.; Radović, M.; Erny, C.; Ardana-Lamas, F.; Monoszlai, B.; Gorgisyan, I.; Patthey, L.; Abela, R.

2014-03-01

The recent entry of X-ray free electron lasers (FELs) to all fields of physics has created an enormous need, both from scientists and operators, for better characterization of the beam created by these facilities. Of particular interest is the measurement of the arrival time of the FEL pulse relative to a laser pump, for pump-probe experiments, and the measurement of the FEL pulse length. This article describes a scheme that corrects one of the major sources of uncertainty in these types of measurements, namely the jitter in the arrival time of the FEL relative to an experimental laser beam. The setup presented here uses a combination of THz streak cameras and a spectral encoding setup to reduce the effect of an FEL's jitter, leaving the pulse length as the only variable that can affect the accuracy of the pulse length and arrival time measurement. A discussion of underlying principles is also provided.

Arrival time distributions of electrons in air showers with primary energies above 10 (18)eV observed at 900m above sea level

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kakimoto, F.; Tsuchimoto, I.; Enoki, T.; Suga, K.; Nishi, K.

1985-01-01

Detection of air showers with primary energies above 10 to the 19th power eV with sufficient statistics is extremely important in an astrophysical aspect related to the Greisen cut off and the origin of such high energy cosmic rays. Recently, a method is proposed to observe such giant air showers by measuring the arrival time distributions of air-shower particles at large core distances with a mini array. Experiments to measure the arrival time distributions of muons were started in 1981 and those of electrons in early 1983 in the Akeno air-shower array (930 gcm cm squared atmospheric depth, 900m above sea level). During the time of observation, the detection area of the Akeno array was expanded from 1 sq km to sq km in 1982 and to 20 sq km in 1984. Now the arrival time distribution of electrons and muons can be measured for showers with primary energies above 1019eV at large core distances.

Energy-optimal path planning in the coastal ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramani, Deepak N.; Haley, Patrick J.; Lermusiaux, Pierre F. J.

2017-05-01

We integrate data-driven ocean modeling with the stochastic Dynamically Orthogonal (DO) level-set optimization methodology to compute and study energy-optimal paths, speeds, and headings for ocean vehicles in the Middle-Atlantic Bight (MAB) region. We hindcast the energy-optimal paths from among exact time-optimal paths for the period 28 August 2006 to 9 September 2006. To do so, we first obtain a data-assimilative multiscale reanalysis, combining ocean observations with implicit two-way nested multiresolution primitive-equation simulations of the tidal-to-mesoscale dynamics in the region. Second, we solve the reduced-order stochastic DO level-set partial differential equations (PDEs) to compute the joint probability of minimum arrival time, vehicle-speed time series, and total energy utilized. Third, for each arrival time, we select the vehicle-speed time series that minimize the total energy utilization from the marginal probability of vehicle-speed and total energy. The corresponding energy-optimal path and headings are obtained through the exact particle-backtracking equation. Theoretically, the present methodology is PDE-based and provides fundamental energy-optimal predictions without heuristics. Computationally, it is 3-4 orders of magnitude faster than direct Monte Carlo methods. For the missions considered, we analyze the effects of the regional tidal currents, strong wind events, coastal jets, shelfbreak front, and other local circulations on the energy-optimal paths. Results showcase the opportunities for vehicles that intelligently utilize the ocean environment to minimize energy usage, rigorously integrating ocean forecasting with optimal control of autonomous vehicles.

Optimal Time Advance In Terminal Area Arrivals: Throughput vs. Fuel Savings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sadovsky, Alexander V .; Swenson, Harry N.; Haskell, William B.; Rakas, Jasenka

2011-01-01

The current operational practice in scheduling air traffic arriving at an airport is to adjust flight schedules by delay, i.e. a postponement of an aircrafts arrival at a scheduled location, to manage safely the FAA-mandated separation constraints between aircraft. To meet the observed and forecast growth in traffic demand, however, the practice of time advance (speeding up an aircraft toward a scheduled location) is envisioned for future operations as a practice additional to delay. Time advance has two potential advantages. The first is the capability to minimize, or at least reduce, the excess separation (the distances between pairs of aircraft immediately in-trail) and thereby to increase the throughput of the arriving traffic. The second is to reduce the total traffic delay when the traffic sample is below saturation density. A cost associated with time advance is the fuel expenditure required by an aircraft to speed up. We present an optimal control model of air traffic arriving in a terminal area and solve it using the Pontryagin Maximum Principle. The admissible controls allow time advance, as well as delay, some of the way. The cost function reflects the trade-off between minimizing two competing objectives: excess separation (negatively correlated with throughput) and fuel burn. A number of instances are solved using three different methods, to demonstrate consistency of solutions.

A Mixed Integer Linear Program for Solving a Multiple Route Taxi Scheduling Problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montoya, Justin Vincent; Wood, Zachary Paul; Rathinam, Sivakumar; Malik, Waqar Ahmad

2010-01-01

Aircraft movements on taxiways at busy airports often create bottlenecks. This paper introduces a mixed integer linear program to solve a Multiple Route Aircraft Taxi Scheduling Problem. The outputs of the model are in the form of optimal taxi schedules, which include routing decisions for taxiing aircraft. The model extends an existing single route formulation to include routing decisions. An efficient comparison framework compares the multi-route formulation and the single route formulation. The multi-route model is exercised for east side airport surface traffic at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport to determine if any arrival taxi time savings can be achieved by allowing arrivals to have two taxi routes: a route that crosses an active departure runway and a perimeter route that avoids the crossing. Results indicate that the multi-route formulation yields reduced arrival taxi times over the single route formulation only when a perimeter taxiway is used. In conditions where the departure aircraft are given an optimal and fixed takeoff sequence, accumulative arrival taxi time savings in the multi-route formulation can be as high as 3.6 hours more than the single route formulation. If the departure sequence is not optimal, the multi-route formulation results in less taxi time savings made over the single route formulation, but the average arrival taxi time is significantly decreased.

Analysis of delay reducing and fuel saving sequencing and spacing algorithms for arrival traffic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neuman, Frank; Erzberger, Heinz

1991-01-01

The air traffic control subsystem that performs sequencing and spacing is discussed. The function of the sequencing and spacing algorithms is to automatically plan the most efficient landing order and to assign optimally spaced landing times to all arrivals. Several algorithms are described and their statistical performance is examined. Sequencing brings order to an arrival sequence for aircraft. First-come-first-served sequencing (FCFS) establishes a fair order, based on estimated times of arrival, and determines proper separations. Because of the randomness of the arriving traffic, gaps will remain in the sequence of aircraft. Delays are reduced by time-advancing the leading aircraft of each group while still preserving the FCFS order. Tightly spaced groups of aircraft remain with a mix of heavy and large aircraft. Spacing requirements differ for different types of aircraft trailing each other. Traffic is reordered slightly to take advantage of this spacing criterion, thus shortening the groups and reducing average delays. For heavy traffic, delays for different traffic samples vary widely, even when the same set of statistical parameters is used to produce each sample. This report supersedes NASA TM-102795 on the same subject. It includes a new method of time-advance as well as an efficient method of sequencing and spacing for two dependent runways.

Primary healthcare usage and use of medications among immigrant children according to age of arrival to Norway: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Diaz, Esperanza

2017-01-01

Background Morbidity, use of healthcare and medication use have been reported to vary across groups of migrants and according to the different phases of migration, but little is known about children with immigrant background. In this study, we investigate whether the immigrant children's age of arrival predicts differences in usage of primary healthcare (PHC) and in use of prescribed medication. Methods This nationwide, population-based study used information for children under 18 years of age in 2008 from three linked registers in Norway. Use of medication was assessed with logistic regression analyses presented with ORs with 95% CIs. Results Of 1 168 365 children, 119 251 had immigrant background. The mean number of PHC visits among children aged 10–18 years, was 1.19 for non-immigrants, 1.17 among second generation immigrants, 1.12, 1.05 and 0.83 among first immigrant children who were <5, 5–9 and ≥10 years at arrival in Norway, respectively. Patterns were similar for younger immigrants, and were confirmed with regression models adjusting for age and sex. First generation immigrant children used less of nearly all groups of prescribed medication compared to non-immigrants when adjusting for age and sex (overall OR 0.48 (0.47 to 0.49)), and medication was also generally less used among second generation immigrant children (overall OR 0.92 (0.91 to 0.94)). Conclusions Age of arrival predicted PHC usage among children among first-generation children. First-generation immigrant children, particularly those arriving later in adolescence, used PHC less than age corresponding non-immigrant children. Immigrant children used less prescribed medication compared to non-immigrants after adjustment for age and sex. PMID:28148537

SPX-8 Dragon Spacecraft Approach

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-04-10

ISS047e052707 (04/10/2016) --- The SpaceX Dragon cargo spaceship begins the final approach to the International Space Station. The spacecraft is delivering about 7,000 pounds of science and research investigations, including the Bigelow Expandable Activity Module, known as BEAM. Dragon’s arrival marked the first time two commercial cargo vehicles have been docked simultaneously at the space station. Orbital ATK’s Cygnus spacecraft arrived to the station just over two weeks ago. With the arrival of Dragon, the space station ties the record for most vehicles on station at one time – six.

Monitoring molecular interactions using photon arrival-time interval distribution analysis

DOEpatents

Laurence, Ted A [Livermore, CA; Weiss, Shimon [Los Angels, CA

2009-10-06

A method for analyzing/monitoring the properties of species that are labeled with fluorophores. A detector is used to detect photons emitted from species that are labeled with one or more fluorophores and located in a confocal detection volume. The arrival time of each of the photons is determined. The interval of time between various photon pairs is then determined to provide photon pair intervals. The number of photons that have arrival times within the photon pair intervals is also determined. The photon pair intervals are then used in combination with the corresponding counts of intervening photons to analyze properties and interactions of the molecules including brightness, concentration, coincidence and transit time. The method can be used for analyzing single photon streams and multiple photon streams.

Evaluation of infrasound signals from the shuttle Atlantis using a large seismic network.

PubMed

de Groot-Hedlin, Catherine D; Hedlin, Michael A H; Walker, Kristoffer T; Drob, Douglas P; Zumberge, Mark A

2008-09-01

Inclement weather in Florida forced the space shuttle "Atlantis" to land at Edwards Air Force Base in southern California on June 22, 2007, passing near three infrasound stations and several hundred seismic stations in northern Mexico, southern California, and Nevada. The high signal-to-noise ratio, broad receiver coverage, and Atlantis' positional information allow for the testing of infrasound propagation modeling capabilities through the atmosphere to regional distances. Shadow zones and arrival times are predicted by tracing rays that are launched at right angles to the conical shock front surrounding the shuttle through a standard climatological model as well as a global ground to space model. The predictions and observations compare favorably over much of the study area for both atmospheric specifications. To the east of the shuttle trajectory, there were no detections beyond the primary acoustic carpet. Infrasound energy was detected hundreds of kilometers to the west and northwest (NW) of the shuttle trajectory, consistent with the predictions of ducting due to the westward summer-time stratospheric jet. Both atmospheric models predict alternating regions of high and low ensonifications to the NW. However, infrasound energy was detected tens of kilometers beyond the predicted zones of ensonification, possibly due to uncertainties in stratospheric wind speeds.

Contrast-enhanced transrectal ultrasound for prediction of prostate cancer aggressiveness: The role of normal peripheral zone time-intensity curves.

PubMed

Huang, Hui; Zhu, Zheng-Qiu; Zhou, Zheng-Guo; Chen, Ling-Shan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Yang; Li, Hong-Bo; Yin, Li-Ping

2016-12-08

To assess the role of time-intensity curves (TICs) of the normal peripheral zone (PZ) in the identification of biopsy-proven prostate nodules using contrast-enhanced transrectal ultrasound (CETRUS). This study included 132 patients with 134 prostate PZ nodules. Arrival time (AT), peak intensity (PI), mean transit time (MTT), area under the curve (AUC), time from peak to one half (TPH), wash in slope (WIS) and time to peak (TTP) were analyzed using multivariate linear logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to assess whether combining nodule TICs with normal PZ TICs improved the prediction of prostate cancer (PCa) aggressiveness. The PI, AUC (p < 0.001 for both), MTT and TPH (p = 0.011 and 0.040 respectively) values of the malignant nodules were significantly higher than those of the benign nodules. Incorporating the PI and AUC values (both, p < 0.001) of the normal PZ TIC, but not the MTT and TPH values (p = 0.076 and 0.159 respectively), significantly improved the AUC for prediction of malignancy (PI: 0.784-0.923; AUC: 0.758-0.891) and assessment of cancer aggressiveness (p < 0.001). Thus, all these findings indicate that incorporating normal PZ TICs with nodule TICs in CETRUS readings can improve the diagnostic accuracy for PCa and cancer aggressiveness assessment.

Prediction of health effects of cross-border atmospheric pollutants using an aerosol forecast model.

PubMed

Onishi, Kazunari; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi Thomas; Nojima, Masanori; Kurosaki, Yasunori; Fujitani, Yusuke; Otani, Shinji; Maki, Takashi; Shinoda, Masato; Kurozawa, Youichi; Yamagata, Zentaro

2018-08-01

Health effects of cross-border air pollutants and Asian dust are of significant concern in Japan. Currently, models predicting the arrival of aerosols have not investigated the association between arrival predictions and health effects. We investigated the association between subjective health symptoms and unreleased aerosol data from the Model of Aerosol Species in the Global Atmosphere (MASINGAR) acquired from the Japan Meteorological Agency, with the objective of ascertaining if these data could be applied to predicting health effects. Subjective symptom scores were collected via self-administered questionnaires and, along with modeled surface aerosol concentration data, were used to conduct a risk evaluation using generalized estimating equations between October and November 2011. Altogether, 29 individuals provided 1670 responses. Spearman's correlation coefficients were determined for the relationship between the proportion of the participants reporting the maximum score of two or more for each symptom and the surface concentrations for each considered aerosol species calculated using MASINGAR; the coefficients showed significant intermediate correlations between surface sulfate aerosol concentration and respiratory, throat, and fever symptoms (R = 0.557, 0.454, and 0.470, respectively; p < 0.01). In the general estimation equation (logit link) analyses, a significant linear association of surface sulfate aerosol concentration, with an endpoint determined by reported respiratory symptom scores of two or more, was observed (P trend = 0.001, odds ratio [OR] of the highest quartile [Q4] vs. the lowest [Q1] = 5.31, 95% CI = 2.18 to 12.96), with adjustment for potential confounding. The surface sulfate aerosol concentration was also associated with throat and fever symptoms. In conclusion, our findings suggest that modeled data are potentially useful for predicting health risks of cross-border aerosol arrivals. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Urban sprawl and delayed ambulance arrival in the U.S.

PubMed

Trowbridge, Matthew J; Gurka, Matthew J; O'Connor, Robert E

2009-11-01

Minimizing emergency medical service (EMS) response time is a central objective of prehospital care, yet the potential influence of built environment features such as urban sprawl on EMS system performance is often not considered. This study measures the association between urban sprawl and EMS response time to test the hypothesis that features of sprawling development increase the probability of delayed ambulance arrival. In 2008, EMS response times for 43,424 motor-vehicle crashes were obtained from the Fatal Analysis Reporting System, a national census of crashes involving > or =1 fatality. Sprawl at each crash location was measured using a continuous county-level index previously developed by Ewing et al. The association between sprawl and the probability of a delayed ambulance arrival (> or =8 minutes) was then measured using generalized linear mixed modeling to account for correlation among crashes from the same county. Urban sprawl is significantly associated with increased EMS response time and a higher probability of delayed ambulance arrival (p=0.03). This probability increases quadratically as the severity of sprawl increases while controlling for nighttime crash occurrence, road conditions, and presence of construction. For example, in sprawling counties (e.g., Fayette County GA), the probability of a delayed ambulance arrival for daytime crashes in dry conditions without construction was 69% (95% CI=66%, 72%) compared with 31% (95% CI=28%, 35%) in counties with prominent smart-growth characteristics (e.g., Delaware County PA). Urban sprawl is significantly associated with increased EMS response time and a higher probability of delayed ambulance arrival following motor-vehicle crashes in the U.S. The results of this study suggest that promotion of community design and development that follows smart-growth principles and regulates urban sprawl may improve EMS performance and reliability.

Estimation of flow properties using surface deformation and head data: A trajectory-based approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vasco, D.W.

2004-07-12

A trajectory-based algorithm provides an efficient and robust means to infer flow properties from surface deformation and head data. The algorithm is based upon the concept of an ''arrival time'' of a drawdown front, which is defined as the time corresponding to the maximum slope of the drawdown curve. The technique involves three steps: the inference of head changes as a function of position and time, the use of the estimated head changes to define arrival times, and the inversion of the arrival times for flow properties. Trajectories, computed from the output of a numerical simulator, are used to relatemore » the drawdown arrival times to flow properties. The inversion algorithm is iterative, requiring one reservoir simulation for each iteration. The method is applied to data from a set of 14 tiltmeters, located at the Raymond Quarry field site in California. Using the technique, I am able to image a high-conductivity channel which extends to the south of the pumping well. The presence of th is permeable pathway is supported by an analysis of earlier cross-well transient pressure test data.« less

Scattering - a probe to Earth's small scale structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rost, S.; Earle, P.

2009-05-01

Much of the short-period teleseismic wavefield shows strong evidence for scattered waves in extended codas trailing the main arrivals predicted by ray theory. This energy mainly originates from high-frequency body waves interacting with fine-scale volumetric heterogeneities in the Earth. Studies of this energy revealed much of what we know about Earth's structure at scale lengths around 10 km throughout the Earth from crust to core. From these data we can gain important information about the mineral-physical and geochemical constitution of the Earth that is inaccessible to many other seismic imaging techniques. Previous studies used scattered energy related to PKP, PKiKP, and Pdiff to identify and map the small-scale structure of the mantle and core. We will present observations related to the core phases PKKP and P'P' to study fine-scale mantle heterogeneities. These phases are maximum travel-time phases with respect to perturbations at their reflection points. This allows observation of the scattered energy as precursors to the main phase avoiding common problems with traditional coda phases which arrive after the main pulse. The precursory arrival of the scattered energy allows the separation between deep Earth and crustal contributions to the scattered wavefield for certain source-receiver configurations. Using the information from these scattered phases we identify regions of the mantle that shows increased scattering potential likely linked to larger scale mantle structure identified in seismic tomography and geodynamical models.

Effect of Uncertainty on Deterministic Runway Scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Gautam; Malik, Waqar; Jung, Yoon C.

2012-01-01

Active runway scheduling involves scheduling departures for takeoffs and arrivals for runway crossing subject to numerous constraints. This paper evaluates the effect of uncertainty on a deterministic runway scheduler. The evaluation is done against a first-come- first-serve scheme. In particular, the sequence from a deterministic scheduler is frozen and the times adjusted to satisfy all separation criteria; this approach is tested against FCFS. The comparison is done for both system performance (throughput and system delay) and predictability, and varying levels of congestion are considered. The modeling of uncertainty is done in two ways: as equal uncertainty in availability at the runway as for all aircraft, and as increasing uncertainty for later aircraft. Results indicate that the deterministic approach consistently performs better than first-come-first-serve in both system performance and predictability.

50 kHz bottom backscattering measurements from two types of artificially roughened sandy bottoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, Su-Uk; Cho, Sungho; Choi, Jee Woong

2016-07-01

Laboratory measurements of 50 kHz bottom backscattering strengths as a function of grazing angle were performed on the sandy bottom of a water tank; two types of bottom roughnesses, a relatively smooth interface and a rough interface, were created on the bottom surface. The roughness profiles of the two interface types were measured directly using an ultrasound arrival time difference of 5 MHz and then were Fourier transformed to obtain the roughness power spectra. The measured backscattering strengths increased from -29 to 0 dB with increasing grazing angle from 35 to 86°, which were compared to theoretical backscattering model predictions. The comparison results implied that bottom roughness is a key factor in accurately predicting bottom scattering for a sandy bottom.

Numerical Modeling of the Pumping Tests at the Ketzin Pilot Site for CO2 Injection: Model Calibration and Heterogeneity Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, F.; Wiese, B.; Zhou, Q.; Birkholzer, J. T.; Kowalsky, M. B.

2013-12-01

The Stuttgart formation used for ongoing CO2 injection at the Ketzin pilot test site in Germany is highly heterogeneous in nature. The site characterization data, including 3D seismic amplitude images, the regional geology data, and the core measurements and geophysical logs of the wells show the formation is composed of permeable sandstone channels of varying thickness and length embedded in less permeable mudstones. Most of the sandstone channels are located in the upper 10-15 m of the formation, with only a few sparsely distributed sandstone channels in the bottom 70-m layer. Three-dimensional seismic data help to identify the large-scale facies distribution patterns in the Stuttgart formation, but are unable to resolve internal structures at a smaller scale (e.g. ~100 m). Heterogeneity has a large effect on the pressure propagation measured during a suite of pumping tests conducted in 2007-2008 and also impacts strongly the CO2 arrival times observed during the ongoing CO2 injection experiment. The arrival time of the CO2 plume at the observation well Ktzi 202was 12.5 times greater than at the other observation well Ktzi 200, even though the distance to the injection well is only 2.2 times farther than that of Ktzi 200. To characterize subsurface properties and help predict the behavior of injected CO2 in subsequent experiments, we develop a TOUGH2/EOS9 model for modeling the hydraulic pumping tests and use the inverse modeling tool iTOUGH2 for automatic model calibration. The model domain is parameterized using multiple zones, with each zone assumed to have uniform rock properties. The calibrated model produces system responses that are in good agreement with the measured pressure drawdown data, indicating that it captures the essential flow processes occurring during the pumping tests. The estimated permeability distribution shows that the heterogeneity is significant and that the study site is situated a semi-closed system with one or two sides open to permeable regions and the others effectively blocked by low-permeability regions. A low-permeability zone appears at the northern boundary of the model. Of the three wells that are analyzed, permeable channels are found to connect Ktzi 202 with Ktzi 200/Ktzi 201, while a low-permeability zone is observed between Ktzi 201 and Ktzi 200. The calibrated results are consistent with the crosshole ERT data and can help explain the position of a CO2 plume, inferred from 3D seismic surveys in a subsequent CO2 injection experiment. Because the CO2 transport that occurs during a CO2 injection and the pressure propagation that occurs during pumping tests are sensitive to different scales of subsurface heterogeneity, direct application of a model calibrated from pumping test data is inappropriate for predicting CO2 arrival. However, by including a thin layer of highly permeable sandstone, we present a proof-of-concept model that produces CO2 arrival times comparable to those observed at the site.

Do presenting symptoms explain sex differences in emergency department delays among patients with acute stroke?

PubMed

Gargano, Julia Warner; Wehner, Susan; Reeves, Mathew J

2009-04-01

Previous studies report that women with stroke may experience longer delays in diagnostic workup than men after arriving at the emergency department. We hypothesized that presenting symptom differences could explain these delays. Data were collected on 1922 acute stroke cases who presented to 15 hospitals participating in a statewide stroke registry. We evaluated 2 in-hospital time intervals: emergency department arrival to physician examination ("door-to-doctor") and emergency department arrival to brain imaging ("door-to-image"). We used parametric survival models to estimate time ratios, which represent the ratio of average times comparing women to men, after adjusting for symptom presentation and other confounders. Women were significantly less likely than men to present with any stroke warning sign or suspected stroke (87.5% versus 91.4%) or to report trouble with walking, balance, or dizziness (9.5% versus 13.7%). Difficulty speaking and loss of consciousness were associated with shorter door-to-doctor times. Weakness, facial droop, difficulty speaking, and loss of consciousness were associated with shorter door-to-image times, whereas difficulty with walking/balance was associated with longer door-to-image times. In adjusted analyses, women had 11% longer door-to-doctor intervals (time ratio, 1.11; 95%, CI 1.02 to 1.22) and 15% longer door-to-image intervals (time ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.25) after accounting for presenting symptoms, age, and other confounders. Furthermore, these sex differences remained evident after restricting to patients who arrived within 6 or within 2 hours of symptom onset. Women with acute stroke experienced greater emergency department delays than men, which were not attributable to differences in presenting symptoms, time of arrival, age, or other confounders.

Conservative parallel simulation of priority class queueing networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, David

1992-01-01

A conservative synchronization protocol is described for the parallel simulation of queueing networks having C job priority classes, where a job's class is fixed. This problem has long vexed designers of conservative synchronization protocols because of its seemingly poor ability to compute lookahead: the time of the next departure. For, a job in service having low priority can be preempted at any time by an arrival having higher priority and an arbitrarily small service time. The solution is to skew the event generation activity so that the events for higher priority jobs are generated farther ahead in simulated time than lower priority jobs. Thus, when a lower priority job enters service for the first time, all the higher priority jobs that may preempt it are already known and the job's departure time can be exactly predicted. Finally, the protocol was analyzed and it was demonstrated that good performance can be expected on the simulation of large queueing networks.

Conservative parallel simulation of priority class queueing networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, David M.

1990-01-01

A conservative synchronization protocol is described for the parallel simulation of queueing networks having C job priority classes, where a job's class is fixed. This problem has long vexed designers of conservative synchronization protocols because of its seemingly poor ability to compute lookahead: the time of the next departure. For, a job in service having low priority can be preempted at any time by an arrival having higher priority and an arbitrarily small service time. The solution is to skew the event generation activity so that the events for higher priority jobs are generated farther ahead in simulated time than lower priority jobs. Thus, when a lower priority job enters service for the first time, all the higher priority jobs that may preempt it are already known and the job's departure time can be exactly predicted. Finally, the protocol was analyzed and it was demonstrated that good performance can be expected on the simulation of large queueing networks.

Do Arctic breeding geese track or overtake a green wave during spring migration?

PubMed

Si, Yali; Xin, Qinchuan; de Boer, Willem F; Gong, Peng; Ydenberg, Ronald C; Prins, Herbert H T

2015-03-04

Geese breeding in the Arctic have to do so in a short time-window while having sufficient body reserves. Hence, arrival time and body condition upon arrival largely influence breeding success. The green wave hypothesis posits that geese track a successively delayed spring flush of plant development on the way to their breeding sites. The green wave has been interpreted as representing either the onset of spring or the peak in nutrient biomass. However, geese tend to adopt a partial capital breeding strategy and might overtake the green wave to accomplish a timely arrival on the breeding site. To test the green wave hypothesis, we link the satellite-derived onset of spring and peak in nutrient biomass with the stopover schedule of individual Barnacle Geese. We find that geese track neither the onset of spring nor the peak in nutrient biomass. Rather, they arrive at the southernmost stopover site around the peak in nutrient biomass, and gradually overtake the green wave to match their arrival at the breeding site with the local onset of spring, thereby ensuring gosling benefit from the peak in nutrient biomass. Our approach for estimating plant development stages is critical in testing the migration strategies of migratory herbivores.

A Human-in-the Loop Evaluation of a Coordinated Arrival Departure Scheduling Operations for Managing Departure Delays at LaGuardia Airport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Paul U.; Smith, Nancy M.; Bienert, Nancy; Brasil, Connie; Buckley, Nathan; Chevalley, Eric; Homola, Jeffrey; Omar, Faisal; Parke, Bonny; Yoo, Hyo-Sang

2016-01-01

LaGuardia (LGA) departure delay was identified by the stakeholders and subject matter experts as a significant bottleneck in the New York metropolitan area. Departure delay at LGA is primarily due to dependency between LGA's arrival and departure runways: LGA departures cannot begin takeoff until arrivals have cleared the runway intersection. If one-in one-out operations are not maintained and a significant arrival-to-departure imbalance occurs, the departure backup can persist through the rest of the day. At NASA Ames Research Center, a solution called "Departure-sensitive Arrival Spacing" (DSAS) was developed to maximize the departure throughput without creating significant delays in the arrival traffic. The concept leverages a Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSS) operations that create and manage the arrival schedule to the runway threshold and added an interface enhancement to the traffic manager's timeline to provide the ability to manually adjust inter-arrival spacing to build precise gaps for multiple departures between arrivals. A more complete solution would include a TSS algorithm enhancement that could automatically build these multi-departure gaps. With this set of capabilities, inter-arrival spacing could be controlled for optimal departure throughput. The concept was prototyped in a human-in-the- loop (HITL) simulation environment so that operational requirements such as coordination procedures, timing and magnitude of TSS schedule adjustments, and display features for Tower, TRACON and Traffic Management Unit could be determined. A HITL simulation was conducted in August 2014 to evaluate the concept in terms of feasibility, controller workload impact, and potential benefits. Three conditions were tested, namely a Baseline condition without scheduling, TSS condition that schedules the arrivals to the runway threshold, and TSS+DSAS condition that adjusts the arrival schedule to maximize the departure throughput. The results showed that during high arrival demand period, departure throughput could be incrementally increased under TSS and TSS+DSAS conditions without compromising the arrival throughput. The concept, operational procedures, and summary results were originally published in ATM20151 but detailed results were omitted. This paper expands on the earlier paper to provide the detailed results on throughput, conformance, safety, flight time/distance, etc. that provide extra insights into the feasibility and the potential benefits on the concept.

Using Heliospheric Imaging for Storm Forecasting - SMEI CME Observations as a Tool for Operational Forecasting at AFWA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, D. F.; Johnston, J. C.; Fry, C. D.; Kuchar, T. A.

2008-12-01

Observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from heliospheric imagers such as the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) can lead to significant improvements in operational space weather forecasting. We are working with the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ingest SMEI all-sky imagery with appropriate tools to help forecasters improve their operational space weather forecasts. We describe two approaches: 1) Near- real time analysis of propagating CMEs from SMEI images alone combined with near-Sun observations of CME onsets and, 2) Using these calculations of speed as a mid-course correction to the HAFv2 solar wind model forecasts. HAFv2 became operational at AFWA in late 2006. The objective is to determine a set of practical procedures that the duty forecaster can use to update or correct a solar wind forecast using heliospheric imager data. SMEI observations can be used inclusively to make storm forecasts, as recently discussed in Webb et al. (Space Weather, in press, 2008). We have developed a point-and-click analysis tool for use with SMEI images and are working with AFWA to ensure that timely SMEI images are available for analyses. When a frontside solar eruption occurs, especially if within about 45 deg. of Sun center, a forecaster checks for an associated CME observed by a coronagraph within an appropriate time window. If found, especially if the CME is a halo type, the forecaster checks SMEI observations about a day later, depending on the apparent initial CME speed, for possibly associated CMEs. If one is found, then the leading edge is measured over several successive frames and an elongation-time plot constructed. A minimum of three data points, i.e., over 3-4 orbits or about 6 hours, are necessary for such a plot. Using the solar source location and onset time of the CME from, e.g., SOHO observations, and assuming radial propagation, a distance-time relation is calculated and extrapolated to the 1 AU distance. As shown by Webb et al., the storm onset time is then expected to be about 3 hours after this 1 AU arrival time (AT). The prediction program is updated as more SMEI data become available. Currently when an appropriate solar event occurs, AFWA routinely runs the HAFv2 model to make a forecast of the shock and ejecta arrival times at Earth. SMEI data can be used to improve this prediction. The HAFv2 model can produce synthetic sky maps of predicted CME brightness for comparison with SMEI images. The forecaster uses SMEI imagery to observe and track the CME. The forecaster then measures the CME location and speed using the SMEI imagery and the HAFv2 synthetic sky maps. After comparing the SMEI and HAFv2 results, the forecaster can adjust a key input to HAFv2, such as the initial speed of the disturbance at the Sun or the mid-course speed. The forecaster then iteratively runs HAFv2 until the observed and forecast sky maps match. The final HAFv2 solution becomes the new forecast. When the CME/shock arrives at (or does not reach) Earth, the forecaster verifies the forecast and updates the forecast skill statistics. Eventually, we plan to develop a more automated version of this procedure.

A method for improving arrival-to-electrocardiogram time in emergency department chest pain patients and the effect on door-to-balloon time for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Takakuwa, Kevin M; Burek, Gregory A; Estepa, Adrian T; Shofer, Frances S

2009-10-01

The objectives were to determine if an emergency department (ED) could improve the adherence to a door-to-electrocardiogram (ECG) time goal of 10 minutes or less for patients who presented to an ED with chest pain and the effect of this adherence on door-to-balloon (DTB) time for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) cardiac catheterization (cath) alert patients. This was a planned 1-month before-and-after interventional study design for implementing a new process for obtaining ECGs in patients presenting to the study ED with chest pain. Prior to the change, patients were registered and triaged before an ECG was obtained. The new procedure required registration clerks to identify those with chest pain and directly overhead page or call a designated ECG technician. This technician had other ED duties, but prioritized performing ECGs and delivering them to attending physicians. A full registration process occurred after the clinical staff performed their initial assessment. The primary outcome was the total percentage of patients with chest pain who received an ECG within 10 minutes of ED arrival. The secondary outcome was DTB time for patients with STEMI who were emergently cath alerted. Data were analyzed using mean differences, 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and relative risk (RR) regression to adjust for possible confounders. A total of 719 patients were studied: 313 before and 405 after the intervention. The mean (+/-standard deviation [SD]) age was 50 (+/-16) years, 54% were women, 57% were African American, and 36% were white. Patients walked in 89% of the time; 11% arrived by ambulance. Thirty-nine percent were triaged as emergent and 61% as nonemergent. Patients presented during daytime 68% of the time, and 32% presented during the night. Before the intervention, 16% received an ECG at 10 minutes or less. After the intervention, 64% met the time requirement, for a mean difference of 47.3% (95% CI = 40.8% to 53.3%, p < 0.0001). Results were not affected by age, sex, race, mode of arrival, triage classification, or time of arrival. For patients with STEMI cath alerts, four were seen before and seven after the intervention. No patients before the intervention had ECG time within 10 minutes, and one of four had DTB time of <90 minutes. After the intervention, all seven patients had ECG time within 10 minutes; the three arriving during weekday hours when the cath team was on site had DTB times of <90 minutes, but the four arriving at night and on weekends when the cath team was off site had DTB times of >90 minutes. The overall percentage of patients with a door-to-ECG time within 10 minutes improved without increasing staffing. An ECG was performed within 10 minutes of arrival for all patients who were STEMI cath alerted, but DTB time under 90 minutes was achieved only when the cath team was on site.

High-performance, multi-faceted research sonar electronics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moseley, Julian W.

This thesis describes the design, implementation and testing of a research sonar system capable of performing complex applications such as coherent Doppler measurement and synthetic aperture imaging. Specifically, this thesis presents an approach to improve the precision of the timing control and increase the signal-to-noise ratio of an existing research sonar. A dedicated timing control subsystem, and hardware drivers are designed to improve the efficiency of the old sonar's timing operations. A low noise preamplifier is designed to reduce the noise component in the received signal arriving at the input of the system's data acquisition board. Noise analysis, frequency response, and timing simulation data are generated in order to predict the functionality and performance improvements expected when the subsystems are implemented. Experimental data, gathered using these subsys- tems, are presented, and are shown to closely match the simulation results, thus verifying performance.

The application of heliospheric imaging to space weather operations: Lessons learned from published studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Richard A.; Davies, Jackie A.; Biesecker, Doug; Gibbs, Mark

2017-08-01

The field of heliospheric imaging has matured significantly over the last 10 years—corresponding, in particular, to the launch of NASA's STEREO mission and the successful operation of the heliospheric imager (HI) instruments thereon. In parallel, this decade has borne witness to a marked increase in concern over the potentially damaging effects of space weather on space and ground-based technological assets, and the corresponding potential threat to human health, such that it is now under serious consideration at governmental level in many countries worldwide. Hence, in a political climate that recognizes the pressing need for enhanced operational space weather monitoring capabilities most appropriately stationed, it is widely accepted, at the Lagrangian L1 and L5 points, it is timely to assess the value of heliospheric imaging observations in the context of space weather operations. To this end, we review a cross section of the scientific analyses that have exploited heliospheric imagery—particularly from STEREO/HI—and discuss their relevance to operational predictions of, in particular, coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival at Earth and elsewhere. We believe that the potential benefit of heliospheric images to the provision of accurate CME arrival predictions on an operational basis, although as yet not fully realized, is significant and we assert that heliospheric imagery is central to any credible space weather mission, particularly one located at a vantage point off the Sun-Earth line.

Sequential Bayesian Geostatistical Inversion and Evaluation of Combined Data Worth for Aquifer Characterization at the Hanford 300 Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murakami, H.; Chen, X.; Hahn, M. S.; Over, M. W.; Rockhold, M. L.; Vermeul, V.; Hammond, G. E.; Zachara, J. M.; Rubin, Y.

2010-12-01

Subsurface characterization for predicting groundwater flow and contaminant transport requires us to integrate large and diverse datasets in a consistent manner, and quantify the associated uncertainty. In this study, we sequentially assimilated multiple types of datasets for characterizing a three-dimensional heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity field at the Hanford 300 Area. The datasets included constant-rate injection tests, electromagnetic borehole flowmeter tests, lithology profile and tracer tests. We used the method of anchored distributions (MAD), which is a modular-structured Bayesian geostatistical inversion method. MAD has two major advantages over the other inversion methods. First, it can directly infer a joint distribution of parameters, which can be used as an input in stochastic simulations for prediction. In MAD, in addition to typical geostatistical structural parameters, the parameter vector includes multiple point values of the heterogeneous field, called anchors, which capture local trends and reduce uncertainty in the prediction. Second, MAD allows us to integrate the datasets sequentially in a Bayesian framework such that it updates the posterior distribution, as a new dataset is included. The sequential assimilation can decrease computational burden significantly. We applied MAD to assimilate different combinations of the datasets, and then compared the inversion results. For the injection and tracer test assimilation, we calculated temporal moments of pressure build-up and breakthrough curves, respectively, to reduce the data dimension. A massive parallel flow and transport code PFLOTRAN is used for simulating the tracer test. For comparison, we used different metrics based on the breakthrough curves not used in the inversion, such as mean arrival time, peak concentration and early arrival time. This comparison intends to yield the combined data worth, i.e. which combination of the datasets is the most effective for a certain metric, which will be useful for guiding the further characterization effort at the site and also the future characterization projects at the other sites.

Optimizing correlation techniques for improved earthquake location

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schaff, D.P.; Bokelmann, G.H.R.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Zanzerkia, E.; Waldhauser, F.; Beroza, G.C.

2004-01-01

Earthquake location using relative arrival time measurements can lead to dramatically reduced location errors and a view of fault-zone processes with unprecedented detail. There are two principal reasons why this approach reduces location errors. The first is that the use of differenced arrival times to solve for the vector separation of earthquakes removes from the earthquake location problem much of the error due to unmodeled velocity structure. The second reason, on which we focus in this article, is that waveform cross correlation can substantially reduce measurement error. While cross correlation has long been used to determine relative arrival times with subsample precision, we extend correlation measurements to less similar waveforms, and we introduce a general quantitative means to assess when correlation data provide an improvement over catalog phase picks. We apply the technique to local earthquake data from the Calaveras Fault in northern California. Tests for an example streak of 243 earthquakes demonstrate that relative arrival times with normalized cross correlation coefficients as low as ???70%, interevent separation distances as large as to 2 km, and magnitudes up to 3.5 as recorded on the Northern California Seismic Network are more precise than relative arrival times determined from catalog phase data. Also discussed are improvements made to the correlation technique itself. We find that for large time offsets, our implementation of time-domain cross correlation is often more robust and that it recovers more observations than the cross spectral approach. Longer time windows give better results than shorter ones. Finally, we explain how thresholds and empirical weighting functions may be derived to optimize the location procedure for any given region of interest, taking advantage of the respective strengths of diverse correlation and catalog phase data on different length scales.

A taxonomy of three species of negative velocity arrivals in the lithospheric mantle beneath the United States using Sp receiver functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, K.; Dueker, K.; McClenahan, J.; Hansen, S. M.; Schmandt, B.

2012-12-01

The Transportable Array, with significant supplement from past PASSCAL experiments, provides an unprecedented opportunity for a holistic view over the geologically and tectonically diverse continent. New images from 34,000 Sp Receiver Functions image lithospheric and upper mantle structure that has not previously been well constrained, significant to our understanding of upper mantle processes and continental evolution. The negative velocity gradient (NVG) found beneath the Moho has been elusive and is often loosely termed the "Lithosphere-Asthenosphere Boundary" (LAB).This label is used by some researchers to indicate a rheological boundary, a thermal gradient, an anisotropic velocity contrast, or a compositional boundary, and much confusion has arisen around what observed NVG arrivals manifest. Deconvolution across up to 400 stations simultaneously has enhanced the source wavelet estimation and allowed for more accurate receiver functions. In addition, Sdp converted phases are precursory to the direct S phase arrival, eliminating the issue of contamination from reverberated phases that add noise to Ps receiver functions in this lower-lithospheric and upper mantle depth range. We present taxonomy of the NVG arrivals beneath the Moho across the span of the Transportable Array (125° - 85° W). The NVG is classified into three different categories, primarily distinguished by the estimated temperature at the depth of the arrival. The first species of Sp NVG arrivals is found to be in the region west of the Precambrian rift hinge line, at a depth range of 70 - 90 km, corresponding to a temperature of >1150° C. This temperature and depth is predicted to be supersolidus for a 0.02% weight H2O Peridotite (Katz et al., 2004), supporting the theory that these arrivals are due to a melt-staging area (MSA), which could be correlated with the base of the thermal lithosphere. The current depth estimate of the cratonic US thermal LAB ranges from 150-220 km (Yuan and Romanowitz, 2010), and yet a pervasive arrival in our Sp and Ps images shows a NVG ranging from 80 - 110 km depth, with temperature estimates of ~800° C. Clearly internal to the lithosphere, this signal cannot be a LAB arrival. Hence, our second species of NVG is a Mid-Lithospheric Discontinuity (MLD) that we interpret as a layer of sub-solidus metasomatic minerals that have solidus in the 1000-1100°C range near three Gpa. These low solidus minerals are amphibole, phlogophite, and carbon-bearing phases. A freezing front (solidus) near three Gpa freezing front would concentrate these low velocity minerals to make a metasomatic layer over Ga time-scales to explain our NVG MLD arrivals. A third species of NVG, in the "warm" category of 950-1150° C, exists beneath the intermountain west region of Laramide shortening that extends from Montana to New Mexico. This region has experienced abundant post-Eocene alkaline magmatism. Mantle xenoliths from this region provide temperature at depth measurements which are in agreement with our surface wave velocity based temperature estimates. Thus, this NVG arrival is interpreted as a near to super-solidus metasomatic layer. Noteworthy is that a deeper arrival (150-190 km) is intermittently observed which would be more relative to the base of the thermal lithosphere.

Contributed Review: Source-localization algorithms and applications using time of arrival and time difference of arrival measurements

DOE PAGES

Li, Xinya; Deng, Zhiqun Daniel; Rauchenstein, Lynn T.; ...

2016-04-01

Locating the position of fixed or mobile sources (i.e., transmitters) based on received measurements from sensors is an important research area that is attracting much research interest. In this paper, we present localization algorithms using time of arrivals (TOA) and time difference of arrivals (TDOA) to achieve high accuracy under line-of-sight conditions. The circular (TOA) and hyperbolic (TDOA) location systems both use nonlinear equations that relate the locations of the sensors and tracked objects. These nonlinear equations can develop accuracy challenges because of the existence of measurement errors and efficiency challenges that lead to high computational burdens. Least squares-based andmore » maximum likelihood-based algorithms have become the most popular categories of location estimators. We also summarize the advantages and disadvantages of various positioning algorithms. By improving measurement techniques and localization algorithms, localization applications can be extended into the signal-processing-related domains of radar, sonar, the Global Positioning System, wireless sensor networks, underwater animal tracking, mobile communications, and multimedia.« less

Contributed Review: Source-localization algorithms and applications using time of arrival and time difference of arrival measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xinya; Deng, Zhiqun Daniel; Rauchenstein, Lynn T.

Locating the position of fixed or mobile sources (i.e., transmitters) based on received measurements from sensors is an important research area that is attracting much research interest. In this paper, we present localization algorithms using time of arrivals (TOA) and time difference of arrivals (TDOA) to achieve high accuracy under line-of-sight conditions. The circular (TOA) and hyperbolic (TDOA) location systems both use nonlinear equations that relate the locations of the sensors and tracked objects. These nonlinear equations can develop accuracy challenges because of the existence of measurement errors and efficiency challenges that lead to high computational burdens. Least squares-based andmore » maximum likelihood-based algorithms have become the most popular categories of location estimators. We also summarize the advantages and disadvantages of various positioning algorithms. By improving measurement techniques and localization algorithms, localization applications can be extended into the signal-processing-related domains of radar, sonar, the Global Positioning System, wireless sensor networks, underwater animal tracking, mobile communications, and multimedia.« less

Sound System Engineering & Optimization: The effects of multiple arrivals on the intelligibility of reinforced speech

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryan, Timothy James

The effects of multiple arrivals on the intelligibility of speech produced by live-sound reinforcement systems are examined. The intent is to determine if correlations exist between the manipulation of sound system optimization parameters and the subjective attribute speech intelligibility. Given the number, and wide range, of variables involved, this exploratory research project attempts to narrow the focus of further studies. Investigated variables are delay time between signals arriving from multiple elements of a loudspeaker array, array type and geometry and the two-way interactions of speech-to-noise ratio and array geometry with delay time. Intelligibility scores were obtained through subjective evaluation of binaural recordings, reproduced via headphone, using the Modified Rhyme Test. These word-score results are compared with objective measurements of Speech Transmission Index (STI). Results indicate that both variables, delay time and array geometry, have significant effects on intelligibility. Additionally, it is seen that all three of the possible two-way interactions have significant effects. Results further reveal that the STI measurement method overestimates the decrease in intelligibility due to short delay times between multiple arrivals.

A coronagraph for operational space weather predication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Middleton, Kevin F.

2017-09-01

Accurate prediction of the arrival of solar wind phenomena, in particular coronal mass ejections (CMEs), at Earth, and possibly elsewhere in the heliosphere, is becoming increasingly important given our ever-increasing reliance on technology. The potentially severe impact on human technological systems of such phenomena is termed space weather. A coronagraph is arguably the instrument that provides the earliest definitive evidence of CME eruption; from a vantage point on or near the Sun-Earth line, a coronagraph can provide near-definitive identification of an Earth-bound CME. Currently, prediction of CME arrival is critically dependent on ageing science coronagraphs whose design and operation were not optimized for space weather services. We describe the early stages of the conceptual design of SCOPE (the Solar Coronagraph for OPErations), optimized to support operational space weather services.

Clock Synchronization Through Time-Variant Underwater Acoustic Channels

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

stage, we analyze a series of chirp responses to identify the least time -varying multipath present in the channel between the two nodes. Based on the... based on the detected arrivals and determines the most stable one based on the correlation coefficient of a model fit to the time -of-arrival estimates...short periods of time . Nevertheless, signal fluctuations can occur due to transceiver motion or inherent changes within the propagation medium

Enhancements to the timing of the OMEGA laser system to improve illumination uniformity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donaldson, W. R.; Katz, J.; Kosc, T. Z.; Kelly, J. H.; Hill, E. M.; Bahr, R. E.

2016-09-01

Two diagnostics have been developed to improve the uniformity on the OMEGA Laser System, which is used for inertial confinement fusion (ICF) research. The first diagnostic measures the phase of an optical modulator (used for the spectral dispersion technique employed on OMEGA to enhance spatial smoothing), which adds bandwidth to the optical pulse. Setting this phase precisely is required to reduce pointing errors. The second diagnostic ensures that the arrival times of all the beams are synchronized. The arrival of each of the 60 OMEGA beams is measured by placing a 1-mm diffusing sphere at target chamber center. By comparing the arrival time of each beam with respect to a reference pulse, the measured timing spread of the OMEGA Laser System is now 3.8 ps.

What prevents phenological adjustment to climate change in migrant bird species? Evidence against the ``arrival constraint'' hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodenough, Anne E.; Hart, Adam G.; Elliot, Simon L.

2011-01-01

Phenological studies have demonstrated changes in the timing of seasonal events across multiple taxonomic groups as the climate warms. Some northern European migrant bird populations, however, show little or no significant change in breeding phenology, resulting in synchrony with key food sources becoming mismatched. This phenological inertia has often been ascribed to migration constraints (i.e. arrival date at breeding grounds preventing earlier laying). This has been based primarily on research in The Netherlands and Germany where time between arrival and breeding is short (often as few as 9 days). Here, we test the arrival constraint hypothesis over a 15-year period for a U.K. pied flycatcher ( Ficedula hypoleuca) population where laying date is not constrained by arrival as the period between arrival and breeding is substantial and consistent (average 27 ± 4.57 days SD). Despite increasing spring temperatures and quantifiably stronger selection for early laying on the basis of number of offspring to fledge, we found no significant change in breeding phenology, in contrast with co-occurring resident blue tits ( Cyanistes caeruleus). We discuss possible non-migratory constraints on phenological adjustment, including limitations on plasticity, genetic constraints and competition, as well as the possibility of counter-selection pressures relating to adult survival, longevity or future reproductive success. We propose that such factors need to be considered in conjunction with the arrival constraint hypothesis.

What prevents phenological adjustment to climate change in migrant bird species? Evidence against the "arrival constraint" hypothesis.

PubMed

Goodenough, Anne E; Hart, Adam G; Elliot, Simon L

2011-01-01

Phenological studies have demonstrated changes in the timing of seasonal events across multiple taxonomic groups as the climate warms. Some northern European migrant bird populations, however, show little or no significant change in breeding phenology, resulting in synchrony with key food sources becoming mismatched. This phenological inertia has often been ascribed to migration constraints (i.e. arrival date at breeding grounds preventing earlier laying). This has been based primarily on research in The Netherlands and Germany where time between arrival and breeding is short (often as few as 9 days). Here, we test the arrival constraint hypothesis over a 15-year period for a U.K. pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) population where laying date is not constrained by arrival as the period between arrival and breeding is substantial and consistent (average 27 ± 4.57 days SD). Despite increasing spring temperatures and quantifiably stronger selection for early laying on the basis of number of offspring to fledge, we found no significant change in breeding phenology, in contrast with co-occurring resident blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus). We discuss possible non-migratory constraints on phenological adjustment, including limitations on plasticity, genetic constraints and competition, as well as the possibility of counter-selection pressures relating to adult survival, longevity or future reproductive success. We propose that such factors need to be considered in conjunction with the arrival constraint hypothesis.

SPX-8 SpaceX Dragon Spacecraft Grappled by SSRMS

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-04-10

iss047e050978 (4/10/2016) --- The SpaceX Dragon cargo spaceship is grappled by the International Space Station’s Canadarm2. The spacecraft is delivering about 7,000 pounds of science and research investigations, including the Bigelow Expandable Activity Module, known as BEAM. Dragon’s arrival marked the first time two commercial cargo vehicles have been docked simultaneously at the space station. Orbital ATK’s Cygnus spacecraft arrived to the station just over two weeks ago. With the arrival of Dragon, the space station ties the record for most vehicles on station at one time – six.

The Rupture Characteristic of 1999 Izmit Sequence Using IRIS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konca, A. O.; Helmberger, D. V.; Ji, C.; Tan, Y.

2003-12-01

The standard source studies use teleseismic data (30° to 90° ) to analyze earthquakes. Therefore, only a limited portion of the focal sphere is involved in source determinations. Furthermore, the locations and origin times of events remain incompatible with local determinations. Here, we attempt to resolve such issues by using IRIS data at all distances, leading to more accurate and detailed rupture properties and accurate relative locations. The 1999 Izmit earthquake sequence is chosen to test our method. The challenge of using data outside the conventional teleseismic distance range is that the arrival times and waveforms are affected more by the Earth structure. We overcome this difficulty by calibrating the path effects for the mainshock using the simpler aftershocks. Therefore, it is crucial to determine the source parameters of the aftershock. We constructed a Green's function library from a regionalized 1-D model and performed a grid search to establish the depth and fault parameters based on waveform matching for the Pnl waves between the synthetics and data, allowing the synthetics in each station to shift separately to account for the path effect. Our results show that the earthquake depth was around 7 km, rather than 19 km from local observatory (Kandilli) and 15 km from the Harvard's CMT solution. The best focal mechanism has a strike of 263° , a dip of 65° , and a rake of 180° , which is very close to the Harvard's CMT solution. The waveform fits of this aftershock is then used as a criterion to select useful source-station paths. A path with a cross-correlation value above 90% between data and synthetics is defined as a "good path" and can be used for studying the Izmit and Duzce earthquakes. We find that the stations in Central Europe and some of the Greek Islands are "good paths", while the stations in Northeast Africa and Italy cannot be used. The time shifts that give the best cross-correlation values are used to calibrate the picks of the Izmit and Duzce events. We realize that this is a very objective way to pick arrival times. However, our preliminary inversions using teleseismic data for Duzce and Izmit events show that handpicked P and S arrival times of the same station from two very close events are not always well correlated. Obviously, how we pick the arrival time governs the rupture pattern and rupture velocity. Therefore, our methodology brings a more objective approach to pick the travel times. To the end, we will invert for the source history of the Duzce and Izmit earthquakes with the regional data and compare with the inversion result using teleseismic data. Moreover, predictions of the teleseismic data, using the solution from the inversion using regional phases will be presented.

Impact of demographic and clinical parameters on video capsule transit time.

PubMed

Niv, Eva; Pinchasovich, Hadassa; Yanai, Henit

2016-10-01

Small bowel (SB) capsule endoscopy (CE) studies provide data on both gastric and SB transit times (GTT and SBTT, respectively). This study aimed to evaluate the influence of demographic and clinical parameters on the GTT and SBTT. Transit times for two generations of capsules (Pillcam SB2 and SB3) were also compared. Consecutive adult patients undergoing CE were included. GTT, SBTT, and cecum arrival rates were calculated and correlated to demographics and clinical characteristics. A total of 332 CE studies were analyzed. Neither GTT nor SBTT were impacted by age or sex. SBTT was prolonged in newly diagnosed Crohn's disease (CD) patients compared with all other patients (303.1±90.3 vs. 243.6±83.6 min, P=0.02 for SB2, 267.8±63 vs. 228.6±72.3, P=0.01 for SB3, respectively). Moreover, CD patients had higher incomplete study rates compared with patients with all other diagnoses (29.4 vs. 7.3%, respectively, P=0.0116) in the SB2 subgroup. Higher cecum arrival rates were achieved by the SB3 capsule compared with SB2 (97 vs. 91%, P=0.04). Patients with prolonged gastric time or patients with incomplete studies had similar demographic and clinical characteristics as others. Age and sex apparently do not influence intestinal kinetics. Newly diagnosed CD patients have relatively prolonged SBTTs. Demographic and clinical parameters cannot predict prolonged GTT or cecum nonarrival.

Evaluation of vertical profiles to design continuous descent approach procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradeep, Priyank

The current research focuses on predictability, variability and operational feasibility aspect of Continuous Descent Approach (CDA), which is among the key concepts of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The idle-thrust CDA is a fuel economical, noise and emission abatement procedure, but requires increased separation to accommodate for variability and uncertainties in vertical and speed profiles of arriving aircraft. Although a considerable amount of researches have been devoted to the estimation of potential benefits of the CDA, only few have attempted to explain the predictability, variability and operational feasibility aspect of CDA. The analytical equations derived using flight dynamics and Base of Aircraft and Data (BADA) Total Energy Model (TEM) in this research gives insight into dependency of vertical profile of CDA on various factors like wind speed and gradient, weight, aircraft type and configuration, thrust settings, atmospheric factors (deviation from ISA (DISA), pressure and density of the air) and descent speed profile. Application of the derived equations to idle-thrust CDA gives an insight into sensitivity of its vertical profile to multiple factors. This suggests fixed geometric flight path angle (FPA) CDA has higher degree of predictability and lesser variability at the cost of non-idle and low thrust engine settings. However, with optimized design this impact can be overall minimized. The CDA simulations were performed using Future ATM Concept Evaluation Tool (FACET) based on radar-track and aircraft type data (BADA) of the real air-traffic to some of the busiest airports in the USA (ATL, SFO and New York Metroplex (JFK, EWR and LGA)). The statistical analysis of the vertical profiles of CDA shows 1) mean geometric FPAs derived from various simulated vertical profiles are consistently shallower than 3° glideslope angle and 2) high level of variability in vertical profiles of idle-thrust CDA even in absence of uncertainties in external factors. Analysis from operational feasibility perspective suggests that two key features of the performance based Flight Management System (FMS) i.e. required time of arrival (RTA) and geometric descent path would help in reduction of unpredictability associated with arrival time and vertical profile of aircraft guided by the FMS coupled with auto-pilot (AP) and auto-throttle (AT). The statistical analysis of the vertical profiles of CDA also suggests that for procedure design window type, 'AT or above' and 'AT or below' altitude and FPA constraints are more realistic and useful compared to obsolete 'AT' type altitude constraint.

Implementation of a clinical pathway based on a computerized physician order entry system for ischemic stroke attenuates off-hour and weekend effects in the ED.

PubMed

Yang, Jong Min; Park, Yoo Seok; Chung, Sung Phil; Chung, Hyun Soo; Lee, Hye Sun; You, Je Sung; Lee, Shin Ho; Park, Incheol

2014-08-01

Admission on weekends and off-hours has been associated with poor outcomes and mortality from acute stroke. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether an organized clinical pathway (CP) for ischemic stroke can effectively reduce the time from arrival to evaluation and treatment in the emergency department (ED) and improve outcomes, regardless of the time from arrival in the ED. We conducted a retrospective analysis of all consecutive patients included in the prospective registry database in the Brain Salvage through Emergency Stroke Therapy program, which uses the computerized physician order entry (CPOE) system. Patients were classified based on their time of arrival in the ED: group 1, normal working hours on weekdays; group 2, off-hours on weekdays; group 3, normal working hours on weekends; and group 4, off-hours on weekends. Clinical outcomes were categorized according to 30 days in-hospital mortality, in-hospital mortality, and the modified Rankin score during a single length of stay (LOS). No time intervals differed significantly among the 4 patient groups who received intravenous administration of tissue plasminogen activator (IV-tPA). Use of IV-tPA (P = .5110) was not affected by arrival in the ED on off-days or weekends. The overall mortality rate was 3.9%, and the median LOS was 7 days (Interquartile range (IQR), 5-10). By Kaplan-Meier analysis, the cumulative probability of mortality and survival did not differ significantly among the 4 groups over 30 days (P = .1557). An organized CP, based on CPOE, for ischemic stroke can effectively attenuate disparities in the time interval between ED arrival to evaluation and treatment regardless of ED arrival time. This pathway may also help to eliminate off-hour and weekend effects on outcomes from ischemic stroke. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scheduling and Delivering Aircraft to Departure Fixes in the NY Metroplex with Controller-Managed Spacing Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chevalley, Eric; Parke, Bonny; Kraut, Josh M.; Bienert, Nancy; Omar, Faisal; Palmer, Everett A.

2015-01-01

In this paper, successful Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) scheduling systems for arrivals are considered and adapted to apply to departures. We present a concept of operations that integrates Controller-Managed Spacing tools for departures (CMS-D) with existing tactical departure scheduling tools to coordinate demand at departure fixes in a metroplex environment. We tested our concept in a Human-in-the-Loop simulation and compared the effect of two scheduling conditions: 1) "Departure Scheduling" consisting of an emulation of the Integrated Departure and Arrival Capability (IDAC) where Towers and a Planner (Traffic Management Coordinator at the appropriate facility) coordinate aircraft scheduled takeoff times to departure fixes; and 2) "Arrival Sensitive Departure Scheduling" where, in addition, the Tower and Planner also consider arrival Scheduled Time of Arrivals (STAs) at the airport's dependent runway. Results indicate little difference between the two scheduling conditions, but a large difference between the No Tools and the two scheduling conditions with CMS-D tools. The scheduling/CMS-D tools conditions markedly reduced heading, speed clearances, and workload for controllers who were merging flows at the departure fixes. In the tool conditions, departure controllers conditioned departures earlier rather than later when aircraft were tied near the departure fixes. In the scheduling/CMS-D tools conditions, departures crossed the departure fixes 50 seconds earlier and with an 8% error rate (consisting of time ahead or behind desired time of arrival) compared to a 19% error rate in the No Tool condition. Two exploratory runs showed that similar beneficial effects can be obtained only with the CMS-D tools without scheduling takeoff times, but at the cost of a somewhat higher workload for controllers, indicating the benefits of pre-departure scheduling of aircraft with minimal delays. Hence, we found that CMS-D tools were very beneficial in the metroplex environment we tested but that further research is needed to clarify the benefits of the various scheduling approaches.

Three-dimensional numerical modeling of bottom-diffracted surface-reflected arrivals in the North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephen, R. A.; Udovydchenkov, I. A.; Bolmer, T.; Komatitsch, D.; Tromp, J.; Casarotti, E.; Xie, Z.; Worcester, P. F.

2015-12-01

Bottom-diffracted surface-reflected (BDSR) arrivals were first identified in the 2004 Long-range Ocean Acoustic Propagation Experiment (Stephen et al, 2013, JASA, v.134, p.3307-3317). The BDSR mechanism provides a means for acoustic signals and noise from distant sources to appear with significant strength on the deep seafloor. At depths greater than the conjugate depth ambient noise and PE- predicted arrivals are sufficiently quiet that BDSR paths, scattered from small seamounts, can be the largest amplitude arrivals observed. The Ocean Bottom Seismometer Augmentation in the North Pacific (OBSANP) Experiment in June-July 2013 was designed to further define the characteristics of the BDSRs and to understand the conditions under which BDSRs are excited and propagate. An example of BDSR arrivals is shown on the record section in the figure. Other arrivals are the direct water wave and first and second multiples. The reciprocal of the BDSR mechanism also plays a role in T-phase excitation. To further understand the BDSR mechanism, the SPECFEM3D code was extended to handle high-frequency, deep water bottom scattering problems with actual bathymetry and a typical sound speed profile in the water column. The model size is 38km x 27km x 6.5km. The source is centered at 10Hz with a 5Hz bandwidth. Work supported by NSF and ONR.

Open Issues on CME Propagation in the Inner Heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vourlidas, A.

2014-12-01

Over the last few years, the SECCHI imagers aboard the STEREO mission have revealed the inner heliosphere in unprecedented detail. We can image and track CMEs from their birth in the solar corona to their impact on Earth and beyond. We can routinely compare imaging observations with in-situ measurements of the same event and at the same time. It is tempting to think that the understanding the evolution of CMEs in the inner heliosphere should be straighforward. This is not the case. Although the prediction of the time of arrival of CMEs at Earth has improved somewhat, there are many outliers. Predicting the speed of the transient at Earth remain hit-or-miss. Clearly, the details of the propagation of CMEs in the inner heliosphere still elude us, preventing progress in Space Weather forecasting amongh other things. In this talk, I review the open issues, as revealed by joint imaging and in-situ analyses, and discuss strategies for making progress on the subject.

Analysis of FORTE data to extract ionospheric parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roussel-Dupré, Robert A.; Jacobson, Abram R.; Triplett, Laurie A.

2001-01-01

The ionospheric transfer function is derived for a spherically symmetric ionosphere with an arbitrary radial electron density profile in the limit where the radio frequencies of interest ω are much larger than the plasma frequency ωpe. An expansion of the transfer function to second order in the parameter X (= ω2pe/ω2) is carried out. In this limit the dispersive properties of the ionosphere are manifested as a frequency-dependent time of arrival that includes quadratic, cubic, and quartic terms in 1/ω. The coefficients of these terms are related to the total electron content (TEC) along the slant path from transmitter to receiver, the product of TEC and the longitudinal magnetic field strength along the slant path, and refractive bending and higher-order electron density profile effects, respectively. By fitting the time of arrival versus frequency of a transionospheric signal to a polynomial in 1/ω it is possible to extract the TEC, the longitudinal magnetic field strength, the peak electron density, and an effective thickness for the ionosphere. This exercise was carried out for a number of transionospheric pulses measured in the VHF by the FORTE satellite receiver and generated by the Los Alamos Portable Pulser. The results are compared with predictions derived from the International Reference Ionosphere and the United States Geological Survey geomagnetic field model.

KSC-03pd2743

NASA Image and Video Library

2003-07-11

VANDENBERG AFB, CALIF. - Enclosed in a canister, the Gravity Probe B (GP-B) spacecraft arrives at the spacecraft processing facility on North Vandenberg Air Force Base . Gravity Probe B will launch a payload of four gyroscopes into low-Earth polar orbit to test two extraordinary predictions of Albert Einstein’s general theory of relativity: the geodetic effect (how space and time are warped by the presence of the Earth) and frame dragging (how Earth’s rotation drags space and time around with it). Once in orbit, for 18 months each gyroscope’s spin axis will be monitored as it travels through local spacetime, observing and measuring these effects. The experiment was developed by Stanford University, Lockheed Martin and NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center.

A best on-line algorithm for single machine scheduling the equal length jobs with the special chain precedence and delivery time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Cunchang; Mu, Yundong

2013-03-01

In this paper, we consider a single machine on-line scheduling problem with the special chains precedence and delivery time. All jobs arrive over time. The chains chainsi arrive at time ri , it is known that the processing and delivery time of each job on the chain satisfy one special condition CD a forehand: if the job J(i)j is the predecessor of the job J(i)k on the chain chaini, then they satisfy p(i)j = p(i)k = p >= qj >= qk , i = 1,2, ---,n , where pj and qj denote the processing time and the delivery time of the job Jj respectively. Obviously, if the arrival jobs have no chains precedence, it shows that the length of the corresponding chain is 1. The objective is to minimize the time by which all jobs have been delivered. We provide an on-line algorithm with a competitive ratio of √2 , and the result is the best possible.

Sustained reductions in time to antibiotic delivery in febrile immunocompromised children: results of a quality improvement collaborative.

PubMed

Dandoy, Christopher E; Hariharan, Selena; Weiss, Brian; Demmel, Kathy; Timm, Nathan; Chiarenzelli, Janis; Dewald, Mary Katherine; Kennebeck, Stephanie; Langworthy, Shawna; Pomales, Jennifer; Rineair, Sylvia; Sandfoss, Erin; Volz-Noe, Pamela; Nagarajan, Rajaram; Alessandrini, Evaline

2016-02-01

Timely delivery of antibiotics to febrile immunocompromised (F&I) paediatric patients in the emergency department (ED) and outpatient clinic reduces morbidity and mortality. The aim of this quality improvement initiative was to increase the percentage of F&I patients who received antibiotics within goal in the clinic and ED from 25% to 90%. Using the Model of Improvement, we performed Plan-Do-Study-Act cycles to design, test and implement high-reliability interventions to decrease time to antibiotics. Pre-arrival interventions were tested and implemented, followed by post-arrival interventions in the ED. Many processes were spread successfully to the outpatient clinic. The Chronic Care Model was used, in addition to active family engagement, to inform and improve processes. The study period was from January 2010 to January 2015. Pre-arrival planning improved our F&I time to antibiotics in the ED from 137 to 88 min. This was sustained until October 2012, when further interventions including a pre-arrival huddle decreased the median time to <50 min. Implementation of the various processes to the clinic delivery system increased the mean percentage of patients receiving antibiotics within 60 min to >90%. In September 2014, we implemented a rapid response team to improve reliable venous access in the ED, which increased our mean percentage of patients receiving timely antibiotics to its highest rate (95%). This stepwise approach with pre-arrival planning using the Chronic Care Model, followed by standardisation of processes, created a sustainable improvement of timely antibiotic delivery in F&I patients. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

National Early Warning Score (NEWS) as an emergency department predictor of disease severity and 90-day survival in the acutely dyspneic patient - a prospective observational study.

PubMed

Bilben, Bente; Grandal, Linda; Søvik, Signe

2016-06-02

National Early Warning Score (NEWS) was designed to detect deteriorating patients in hospital wards, specifically those at increased risk of ICU admission, cardiac arrest, or death within 24 h. NEWS is not validated for use in Emergency Departments (ED), but emerging data suggest it may be useful. A criticism of NEWS is that patients with chronic poor oxygenation, e.g. severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), will have elevated NEWS also in the absence of acute deterioration, possibly reducing the predictive power of NEWS in this subgroup. We wanted to prospectively evaluate the usefulness of NEWS in unselected adult patients emergently presenting in a Norwegian ED with respiratory distress as main symptom. In respiratory distressed patients, NEWS was calculated on ED arrival, after 2-4 h, and the next day. Manchester Triage Scale (MTS) category, age, gender, comorbidity (ASA score), ICU-admission, ventilatory support, and discharge diagnoses were noted. Survival status was tracked for >90 days through the Population Registry. Data are medians (25-75th percentiles). Factors predicting 90-day survival were analysed with multiple logistic regression. We included 246 patients; 71 years old (60-80), 89 % home-dwelling, 74 % ASA 3-4, 72 % MTS 1-2, 88 % admitted to hospital. NEWS on arrival was 5 (3-7). NEWS correlated closely with MTS category and maximum in-hospital level of care (ED, ward, high-dependency unit, ICU). Sixteen patients died in-hospital, 26 died after discharge within 90 days. Controlled for age, ASA score, and COPD, a higher NEWS on ED arrival predicted poorer 90-day survival. Increased NEWS also correlated with decreased 30-day- and in-hospital survival and a decreased probability for home-dwelling patients to be discharged directly home. In respiratory distressed patients, NEWS on ED arrival correlated closely with triage category and need of ICU admission and predicted long-term out-of-hospital survival controlled for age, comorbidity, and COPD. NEWS should be explored in the ED setting to determine its role in clinical decision-making and in communication along the acute care chain.

Underwater passive acoustic localization of Pacific walruses in the northeastern Chukchi Sea.

PubMed

Rideout, Brendan P; Dosso, Stan E; Hannay, David E

2013-09-01

This paper develops and applies a linearized Bayesian localization algorithm based on acoustic arrival times of marine mammal vocalizations at spatially-separated receivers which provides three-dimensional (3D) location estimates with rigorous uncertainty analysis. To properly account for uncertainty in receiver parameters (3D hydrophone locations and synchronization times) and environmental parameters (water depth and sound-speed correction), these quantities are treated as unknowns constrained by prior estimates and prior uncertainties. Unknown scaling factors on both the prior and arrival-time uncertainties are estimated by minimizing Akaike's Bayesian information criterion (a maximum entropy condition). Maximum a posteriori estimates for sound source locations and times, receiver parameters, and environmental parameters are calculated simultaneously using measurements of arrival times for direct and interface-reflected acoustic paths. Posterior uncertainties for all unknowns incorporate both arrival time and prior uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation results demonstrate that, for the cases considered here, linearization errors are small and the lack of an accurate sound-speed profile does not cause significant biases in the estimated locations. A sequence of Pacific walrus vocalizations, recorded in the Chukchi Sea northwest of Alaska, is localized using this technique, yielding a track estimate and uncertainties with an estimated speed comparable to normal walrus swim speeds.

Predicting the magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections arriving at Earth: 2. Geomagnetic response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savani, N. P.; Vourlidas, A.; Richardson, I. G.; Szabo, A.; Thompson, B. J.; Pulkkinen, A.; Mays, M. L.; Nieves-Chinchilla, T.; Bothmer, V.

2017-02-01

This is a companion to Savani et al. (2015) that discussed how a first-order prediction of the internal magnetic field of a coronal mass ejection (CME) may be made from observations of its initial state at the Sun for space weather forecasting purposes (Bothmer-Schwenn scheme (BSS) model). For eight CME events, we investigate how uncertainties in their predicted magnetic structure influence predictions of the geomagnetic activity. We use an empirical relationship between the solar wind plasma drivers and Kp index together with the inferred magnetic vectors, to make a prediction of the time variation of Kp (Kp(BSS)). We find a 2σ uncertainty range on the magnetic field magnitude (|B|) provides a practical and convenient solution for predicting the uncertainty in geomagnetic storm strength. We also find the estimated CME velocity is a major source of error in the predicted maximum Kp. The time variation of Kp(BSS) is important for predicting periods of enhanced and maximum geomagnetic activity, driven by southerly directed magnetic fields, and periods of lower activity driven by northerly directed magnetic field. We compare the skill score of our model to a number of other forecasting models, including the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)/SWRC estimates. The BSS model was the most unbiased prediction model, while the other models predominately tended to significantly overforecast. The True skill score of the BSS prediction model (TSS = 0.43 ± 0.06) exceeds the results of two baseline models and the NOAA/SWPC forecast. The BSS model prediction performed equally with CCMC/SWRC predictions while demonstrating a lower uncertainty.

Computing arrival times of firefighting resources for initial attack

Treesearch

Romain M. Mees

1978-01-01

Dispatching of firefighting resources requires instantaneous or precalculated decisions. A FORTRAN computer program has been developed that can provide a list of resources in order of computed arrival time for initial attack on a fire. The program requires an accurate description of the existing road system and a list of all resources available on a planning unit....

Upgraded FAA Airfield Capacity Model. Volume 1. Supplemental User’s Guide

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-02-01

SIGMAR (P4.0) cc 1-4 -standard deviation, in seconds, of arrival runway occupancy time (R.O.T.). SIGMAA (F4.0) cc 5-8 -standard deviation, in seconds...iI SI GMAC - The standard deviation of the time from departure clearance to start of roll. SIGMAR - The standard deviation of the arrival runway

Application of the Approximate Bayesian Computation methods in the stochastic estimation of atmospheric contamination parameters for mobile sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopka, Piotr; Wawrzynczak, Anna; Borysiewicz, Mieczyslaw

2016-11-01

In this paper the Bayesian methodology, known as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), is applied to the problem of the atmospheric contamination source identification. The algorithm input data are on-line arriving concentrations of the released substance registered by the distributed sensors network. This paper presents the Sequential ABC algorithm in detail and tests its efficiency in estimation of probabilistic distributions of atmospheric release parameters of a mobile contamination source. The developed algorithms are tested using the data from Over-Land Atmospheric Diffusion (OLAD) field tracer experiment. The paper demonstrates estimation of seven parameters characterizing the contamination source, i.e.: contamination source starting position (x,y), the direction of the motion of the source (d), its velocity (v), release rate (q), start time of release (ts) and its duration (td). The online-arriving new concentrations dynamically update the probability distributions of search parameters. The atmospheric dispersion Second-order Closure Integrated PUFF (SCIPUFF) Model is used as the forward model to predict the concentrations at the sensors locations.

Forecasting daily streamflow using online sequential extreme learning machines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Aranildo R.; Cannon, Alex J.; Hsieh, William W.

2016-06-01

While nonlinear machine methods have been widely used in environmental forecasting, in situations where new data arrive continually, the need to make frequent model updates can become cumbersome and computationally costly. To alleviate this problem, an online sequential learning algorithm for single hidden layer feedforward neural networks - the online sequential extreme learning machine (OSELM) - is automatically updated inexpensively as new data arrive (and the new data can then be discarded). OSELM was applied to forecast daily streamflow at two small watersheds in British Columbia, Canada, at lead times of 1-3 days. Predictors used were weather forecast data generated by the NOAA Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS), and local hydro-meteorological observations. OSELM forecasts were tested with daily, monthly or yearly model updates. More frequent updating gave smaller forecast errors, including errors for data above the 90th percentile. Larger datasets used in the initial training of OSELM helped to find better parameters (number of hidden nodes) for the model, yielding better predictions. With the online sequential multiple linear regression (OSMLR) as benchmark, we concluded that OSELM is an attractive approach as it easily outperformed OSMLR in forecast accuracy.

Smoking Trends among U.S. Latinos, 1998–2013: The Impact of Immigrant Arrival Cohort

PubMed Central

Bostean, Georgiana; Ro, Annie; Fleischer, Nancy L.

2017-01-01

Few studies examine nativity disparities in smoking in the U.S., thus a major gap remains in understanding whether immigrant Latinos’ smoking prevalence is stable, converging, or diverging, compared with U.S.-born Latinos. This study aimed to disentangle the roles of period changes, duration of U.S. residence, and immigrant arrival cohort in explaining the gap in smoking prevalence between foreign-born and U.S.-born Latinos. Using repeated cross-sectional data spanning 1998–2013 (U.S. National Health Interview Survey), regressions predicted current smoking among foreign-born and U.S.-born Latino men and women (n = 12,492). We contrasted findings from conventional regression analyses that simply include period and duration of residence effects, to two methods of assessing arrival cohort effects: the first accounted for baseline differences in smoking among arrival cohorts, while the second examined smoking probabilities by tracking foreign-born arrival cohorts as they increase their duration of U.S. residence. Findings showed that Latino immigrants maintained lower prevalence of current smoking compared with U.S.-born Latinos over the period 1998–2013, and that longer duration of U.S. residence is associated with lower odds of smoking among men. Two findings are particularly novel: (1) accounting for immigrant arrival cohort dampens the overall protective effect of duration of residence among men; and (2) the earliest arrival cohort of Latino immigrant men experienced the steepest decline in smoking over duration of U.S. residence. Results have methodological and theoretical implications for smoking studies and the Latino mortality paradox. PMID:28257125

DRAW: Dynamic Routes for Arrivals in Weather: Concept and Trial Planning Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gong, Chester

2016-01-01

Presentation for FAA sponsored meeting to discuss time-based metering trial planning. This presentation describes the Dynamic Routes for Arrivals in Weather (DRAW) concept and the associated trial planning functionality.

Analysis of the geophysical data using a posteriori algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voskoboynikova, Gyulnara; Khairetdinov, Marat

2016-04-01

The problems of monitoring, prediction and prevention of extraordinary natural and technogenic events are priority of modern problems. These events include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, the lunar-solar tides, landslides, falling celestial bodies, explosions utilized stockpiles of ammunition, numerous quarry explosion in open coal mines, provoking technogenic earthquakes. Monitoring is based on a number of successive stages, which include remote registration of the events responses, measurement of the main parameters as arrival times of seismic waves or the original waveforms. At the final stage the inverse problems associated with determining the geographic location and time of the registration event are solving. Therefore, improving the accuracy of the parameters estimation of the original records in the high noise is an important problem. As is known, the main measurement errors arise due to the influence of external noise, the difference between the real and model structures of the medium, imprecision of the time definition in the events epicenter, the instrumental errors. Therefore, posteriori algorithms more accurate in comparison with known algorithms are proposed and investigated. They are based on a combination of discrete optimization method and fractal approach for joint detection and estimation of the arrival times in the quasi-periodic waveforms sequence in problems of geophysical monitoring with improved accuracy. Existing today, alternative approaches to solving these problems does not provide the given accuracy. The proposed algorithms are considered for the tasks of vibration sounding of the Earth in times of lunar and solar tides, and for the problem of monitoring of the borehole seismic source location in trade drilling.

Prognostics Uncertainty Management with Application to Government and Industry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Celaya, Jose; Sankararaman, Shankar; Daigle, Matthew; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai

2014-01-01

Predictions about the future are contingent on future usage, but also on the quality of the models employed and the assessment of the current health state. These factors, amongst others, need to be considered to arrive at a prediction that is conducted through a rigorous method but where the confidence bounds are not prohibitively large.

Did Columbus "Hypothesize" or "Predict" that if He Sailed Due West, He Would Arrive at the Indies?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Niaz, Mansoor

2004-01-01

A review of the literature in science education shows that most students have difficulties in hypothetico-deductive reasoning. The author's objective in this study was to investigate the abilities of high school teachers and university teachers to understand the difference between the terms "hypothesis" and "prediction" in the…

High resolution time of arrival estimation for a cooperative sensor system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morhart, C.; Biebl, E. M.

2010-09-01

Distance resolution of cooperative sensors is limited by the signal bandwidth. For the transmission mainly lower frequency bands are used which are more narrowband than classical radar frequencies. To compensate this resolution problem the combination of a pseudo-noise coded pulse compression system with superresolution time of arrival estimation is proposed. Coded pulsecompression allows secure and fast distance measurement in multi-user scenarios which can easily be adapted for data transmission purposes (Morhart and Biebl, 2009). Due to the lack of available signal bandwidth the measurement accuracy degrades especially in multipath scenarios. Superresolution time of arrival algorithms can improve this behaviour by estimating the channel impulse response out of a band-limited channel view. For the given test system the implementation of a MUSIC algorithm permitted a two times better distance resolution as the standard pulse compression.

Effect of time-varying tropospheric models on near-regional and regional infrasound propagation as constrained by observational data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, Mihan H.; Stump, Brian W.; Hayward, Chris

2008-06-01

The Chulwon Seismo-Acoustic Array (CHNAR) is a regional seismo-acoustic array with co-located seismometers and infrasound microphones on the Korean peninsula. Data from forty-two days over the course of a year between October 1999 and August 2000 were analyzed; 2052 infrasound-only arrivals and 23 seismo-acoustic arrivals were observed over the six week study period. A majority of the signals occur during local working hours, hour 0 to hour 9 UT and appear to be the result of cultural activity located within a 250 km radius. Atmospheric modeling is presented for four sample days during the study period, one in each of November, February, April, and August. Local meteorological data sampled at six hour intervals is needed to accurately model the observed arrivals and this data produced highly temporally variable thermal ducts that propagated infrasound signals within 250 km, matching the temporal variation in the observed arrivals. These ducts change dramatically on the order of hours, and meteorological data from the appropriate sampled time frame was necessary to interpret the observed arrivals.

Solar wind modulation of UK lightning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Chris; Harrison, Giles; Lockwood, Mike; Owens, Mathew; Barnard, Luke

2013-04-01

The response of lightning rates in the UK to arrival of high speed solar wind streams at Earth is investigated using a superposed epoch analysis. The fast solar wind streams' arrivals are determined from modulation of the solar wind Vy component, measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Lightning rate changes around these event times are then determined from the very low frequency Arrival Time Difference (ATD) system of the UK Met Office. Arrival of high speed streams at Earth is found to be preceded by a decrease in total solar irradiance and an increase in sunspot number and Mg II emissions. These are consistent with the high speed stream's source being co-located with an active region appearing on the Eastern solar limb and rotating at the 27 day rate of the Sun. Arrival of the high speed stream at Earth also coincides with a rapid decrease in cosmic ray flux and an increase in lightning rates over the UK, persisting for around 40 days. The lightning rate increase is corroborated by an increase in the total number of thunder days observed by UK Met stations, again for around 40 days after the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream. This increase in lightning may be beneficial to medium range forecasting of hazardous weather.

RELATIVISTIC MEASUREMENTS FROM TIMING THE BINARY PULSAR PSR B1913+16

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weisberg, J. M.; Huang, Y., E-mail: jweisber@carleton.edu

2016-09-20

We present relativistic analyses of 9257 measurements of times-of-arrival from the first binary pulsar, PSR B1913+16, acquired over the last 35 years. The determination of the “Keplerian” orbital elements plus two relativistic terms completely characterizes the binary system, aside from an unknown rotation about the line of sight, leading to a determination of the masses of the pulsar and its companion: 1.438 ± 0.001 M {sub ☉} and 1.390 ± 0.001 M {sub ☉}, respectively. In addition, the complete system characterization allows for the creation of relativistic gravitation test by comparing measured and predicted sizes of various relativistic phenomena. Wemore » find that the ratio of the observed orbital period decrease caused by gravitational wave damping (corrected by a kinematic term) to the general relativistic prediction is 0.9983 ± 0.0016, thereby confirms the existence and strength of gravitational radiation as predicted by general relativity. For the first time in this system, we have also successfully measured the two parameters characterizing the Shapiro gravitational propagation delay, and found that their values are consistent with general relativistic predictions. For the first time in any system, we have also measured the relativistic shape correction to the elliptical orbit, δ {sub θ} , although its intrinsic value is obscured by currently unquantified pulsar emission beam aberration. We have also marginally measured the time derivative of the projected semimajor axis, which, when improved in combination with beam aberration modeling from geodetic precession observations, should ultimately constrain the pulsar’s moment of inertia.« less

Medication errors versus time of admission in a subpopulation of stroke patients undergoing inpatient rehabilitation complications and considerations.

PubMed

Pitts, Eric P

2011-01-01

This study looked at the medication ordering error frequency and the length of inpatient hospital stay in a subpopulation of stroke patients (n-60) as a function of time of patient admission to an inpatient rehabilitation hospital service. A total of 60 inpatient rehabilitation patients, 30 arriving before 4 pm, and 30 arriving after 4 pm, with as admitting diagnosis of stroke were randomly selected from a larger sample (N=426). There was a statistically significant increase in medication ordering errors and the number of inpatient rehabilitation hospital days in the group of patients who arrived after 4 pm.

Rise Time of the Simulated VERITAS 12 m Davies-Cotton Reflector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, Richard J.

The Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System (VERITAS) will utilise Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes (IACTs) based on a Davies-Cotton design with f-number f/1.0 to detect cosmic gamma-rays. Unlike a parabolic reflector, light from the Davies-Cotton does not arrive isochronously at the camera. Here the effect of the telescope geometry on signal rise-time is examined. An almost square-pulse arrival time profile with a rise time of 1.7 ns is found analytically and confirmed through simulation.

Then and Now: Comparing the Flow of Foreign Fighters to AQI and the Islamic State

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

State during separate blocks of time . Second, it provides insight into the local travel and flow of foreign fighters across time , and the mobilization...who joined the Islamic State during that latter time period also traveled alone more frequently. When they didn’t travel alone, they arrived in...arriving at the caliphate are larger than they were during the time period covered by the Sinjar records. A couple of cases of group travel to Syria

Techniques for measuring arrival times of pulsar signals 1: DSN observations from 1968 to 1980

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Downs, G. S.; Reichley, P. E.

1980-01-01

Techniques used in the ground based observations of pulsars are described, many of them applicable in a navigation scheme. The arrival times of the pulses intercepting Earth are measured at time intervals from a few days to a few months. Low noise, wide band receivers, amplify signals intercepted by 26 m, 34, and 64 m antennas. Digital recordings of total received signal power versus time are cross correlated with the appropriate pulse template.

How robust are distributed systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birman, Kenneth P.

1989-01-01

A distributed system is made up of large numbers of components operating asynchronously from one another and hence with imcomplete and inaccurate views of one another's state. Load fluctuations are common as new tasks arrive and active tasks terminate. Jointly, these aspects make it nearly impossible to arrive at detailed predictions for a system's behavior. It is important to the successful use of distributed systems in situations in which humans cannot provide the sorts of predictable realtime responsiveness of a computer, that the system be robust. The technology of today can too easily be affected by worn programs or by seemingly trivial mechanisms that, for example, can trigger stock market disasters. Inventors of a technology have an obligation to overcome flaws that can exact a human cost. A set of principles for guiding solutions to distributed computing problems is presented.

Effectiveness of a multidisciplinary critical pathway based on a computerised physician order entry system for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction management in the emergency department: a retrospective observational study.

PubMed

Park, Yoo Seok; Chung, Sung Phil; You, Je Sung; Kim, Min Joung; Chung, Hyun Soo; Hong, Jung Hwa; Lee, Hye Sun; Wang, Jinwon; Park, Incheol

2016-08-16

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether a multidisciplinary organised critical pathway (CP) for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) management can significantly attenuate differences in the duration from emergency department (ED) arrival to evaluation and treatment, regardless of the arrival time, by eliminating off-hour and weekend effects. Retrospective observational cohort study. 2 tertiary academic hospitals. Consecutive patients in the Fast Interrogation Rule for STEMI (FIRST) program. A study was conducted on patients in the FIRST program, which uses a computerised physician order entry (CPOE) system. The patient demographics, time intervals and clinical outcomes were analysed based on the arrival time at the ED: group 1, normal working hours on weekdays; group 2, off-hours on weekdays; group 3, normal working hours on weekends; and group 4, off-hours on weekends. Clinical outcomes categorised according to 30-day mortality, in-hospital mortality and the length of stay. The duration from door-to-data or FIRST activation did not differ significantly among the 4 groups. The median duration between arrival and balloon placement during percutaneous coronary intervention did not significantly exceed 90 min, and the proportions (89.6-95.1%) of patients with door-to-balloon times within 90 min did not significantly differ among the 4 groups, regardless of the ED arrival time (p=0.147). Moreover, no differences in the 30-day (p=0.8173) and in-hospital mortality (p=0.9107) were observed in patients with STEMI. A multidisciplinary CP for STEMI based on a CPOE system can effectively decrease disparities in the door-to-data duration and proportions of patients with door-to-balloon times within 90 min, regardless of the ED arrival time. The application of a multidisciplinary CP may also help attenuate off-hour and weekend effects in STEMI clinical outcomes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Performance of BEBE-prototype: A BEam-BEam counter prototype for the MPD-NICA experiment at JINR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, Cristian Heber Zepeda

2018-01-01

In this work we show the arrival time resolution for the Beam Monitoring Detector (BMD). We made the study for Au+Au collision at √s = 8 Gev and a smearing of σ = 300 cm. The arrival time resolution we found is Δσ = 57.982 ± 0.509 ps. We show preliminary results of the time resolution for a cell of the BMD.

AIMBAT: A Python/Matplotlib Tool for Measuring Teleseismic Arrival Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, X.; van der Lee, S.; Lloyd, S.

2013-12-01

Python is an open-source, platform-independent, and object-oriented scripting language. It became more popular in the seismologist community since the appearance of ObsPy (Beyreuther et al. 2010, Megies et al. 2011), which provides a powerful framework for seismic data access and processing. This study introduces a new Python-based tool named AIMBAT (Automated and Interactive Measurement of Body-wave Arrival Times) for measuring teleseismic body-wave arrival times on large-scale seismic event data (Lou et al. 2013). Compared to ObsPy, AIMBAT is a lighter tool that is more focused on a particular aspect of seismic data processing. It originates from the widely used MCCC (Multi-Channel Cross-Correlation) method developed by VanDecar and Crosson (1990). On top of the original MCCC procedure, AIMBAT is automated in initial phase picking and is interactive in quality control. The core cross-correlation function is implemented in Fortran to boost up performance in addition to Python. The GUI (graphical user interface) of AIMBAT depends on Matplotlib's GUI-neutral widgets and event-handling API. A number of sorting and (de)selecting options are designed to facilitate the quality control of seismograms. By using AIMBAT, both relative and absolute teleseismic body-wave arrival times are measured. AIMBAT significantly improves efficiency and quality of the measurements. User interaction is needed only to pick the target phase arrival and to set a time window on the array stack. The package is easy to install and use, open-source, and is publicly available. Graphical user interface of AIMBAT.

Observation of a large-scale anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays above 8 × 10 18 eV

DOE PAGES

Aab, Alexander; et al.

2017-09-22

We report that cosmic rays are atomic nuclei arriving from outer space that reach the highest energies observed in nature. Clues to their origin come from studying the distribution of their arrival directions. Usingmore » $$3 \\times 10^4$$ cosmic rays above $$8 \\times 10^{18}$$ electron volts, recorded with the Pierre Auger Observatory from a total exposure of 76,800 square kilometers steradian year, we report an anisotropy in the arrival directions. The anisotropy, detected at more than the 5.2$$\\sigma$$ level of significance, can be described by a dipole with an amplitude of $$6.5_{-0.9}^{+1.3}$$% towards right ascension $$\\alpha_{d} = 100 \\pm 10$$ degrees and declination $$\\delta_{d} = -24_{-13}^{+12}$$ degrees. Lastly, that direction indicates an extragalactic origin for these ultra-high energy particles.« less

Observation of a large-scale anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays above 8 × 10 18 eV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aab, Alexander; et al.

We report that cosmic rays are atomic nuclei arriving from outer space that reach the highest energies observed in nature. Clues to their origin come from studying the distribution of their arrival directions. Usingmore » $$3 \\times 10^4$$ cosmic rays above $$8 \\times 10^{18}$$ electron volts, recorded with the Pierre Auger Observatory from a total exposure of 76,800 square kilometers steradian year, we report an anisotropy in the arrival directions. The anisotropy, detected at more than the 5.2$$\\sigma$$ level of significance, can be described by a dipole with an amplitude of $$6.5_{-0.9}^{+1.3}$$% towards right ascension $$\\alpha_{d} = 100 \\pm 10$$ degrees and declination $$\\delta_{d} = -24_{-13}^{+12}$$ degrees. Lastly, that direction indicates an extragalactic origin for these ultra-high energy particles.« less

Magnetosheath Propagation Time of Solar Wind Directional Discontinuities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samsonov, A. A.; Sibeck, D. G.; Dmitrieva, N. P.; Semenov, V. S.; Slivka, K. Yu.; Å afránkova, J.; Němeček, Z.

2018-05-01

Observed delays in the ground response to solar wind directional discontinuities have been explained as the result of larger than expected magnetosheath propagation times. Recently, Samsonov et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075020) showed that the typical time for a southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) turning to propagate across the magnetosheath is 14 min. Here by using a combination of magnetohydrodynamic simulations, spacecraft observations, and analytic calculations, we study the dependence of the propagation time on solar wind parameters and near-magnetopause cutoff speed. Increases in the solar wind speed result in greater magnetosheath plasma flow velocities, decreases in the magnetosheath thickness and, as a result, decreases in the propagation time. Increases in the IMF strength result in increases in the magnetosheath thickness and increases in the propagation time. Both magnetohydrodynamic simulations and observations suggest that propagation times are slightly smaller for northward IMF turnings. Magnetosheath flow deceleration must be taken into account when predicting the arrival times of solar wind structures at the dayside magnetopause.

Grant management procedure for energy saving TDM-PONs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alaelddin, Fuad Yousif Mohammed; Newaz, S. H. Shah; AL-Hazemi, Fawaz; Choi, Jun Kyun

2018-01-01

In order to minimize energy consumption in Time Division Multiplexing-Passive Optical Network (TDM-PON), IEEE and ITU-T have mandated sleep mode mechanism for Optical Network Units (ONUs) in the latest TDM-PON standards (e.g. IEEE P1904.1 SIEPON, ITU-T G.sup45). The sleep mode mechanism is a promising mean for maximizing energy saving in an ONU. An ONU in sleep mode flips between sleep and active state depending on the presence or absent of upstream and downstream frames. To ensure Quality of Service (QoS) of upstream frames, the recent TDM-PON standards introduced an early wake-up mechanism, in which an ONU is forced to leave the sleep state on upstream frame arrival. When the Optical Line Terminal (OLT) of a TDM-PON allows early wake-up of its connected ONUs, it allocates gratuitous grants for the sleeping ONUs along with allocating upstream grants for the ONUs in active state. Note that, the gratuitous grants control message sent periodically by the OLT on Inter-Gratuitous grant Interval (IGI) time. After leaving sleep state due to the arrival of upstream frame, the ONU uses its allocated gratuitous grant to send a control message mentioning the amount of upstream bandwidth (upstream grant) required in order to forward the remaining frames in its buffer. However, the existing early wake-up process of ONU can lead to increase the energy consumption of an ONU. It is because of the ONU wakes-up immediately from the sleep state on arrival of the upstream frame, but even so, it needs to wait for forwarding the frame until its allocated gratuitous grant period, resulting in spending energy unnecessarily. In addition, current energy saving solution for TDM-PONs do not provide a clear solution on how to manage different types of grants (e.g. listening grant, upstream transmission grant) within a Dynamic Bandwidth Allocation (DBA) polling cycle. To address this problem, we propose a state-of-art Grant Management Procedure (GMP) in order to maximize energy saving in a TDM-PON with sleep mode enabled ONUs. GMP contributes in defining the location of the different types of grants during a DBA polling cycle. Furthermore, GMP devises a mechanism so as to allow an ONU to predict its assigned gratuitous grant control message arrival time, thereby allowing an ONU to remain its transceiver unit powered off until the arrival period of the next gratuitous grant control message, increasing the energy saving of the ONU. Results show that, with the increment of IGI, the energy saving performance of an ONU with GMP increases noticeably in compare to a conventional ONU (an ONU that does not use GMP) without imposing any additional upstream frame delay.

Signal restoration through deconvolution applied to deep mantle seismic probes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stefan, W.; Garnero, E.; Renaut, R. A.

2006-12-01

We present a method of signal restoration to improve the signal-to-noise ratio, sharpen seismic arrival onset, and act as an empirical source deconvolution of specific seismic arrivals. Observed time-series gi are modelled as a convolution of a simpler time-series fi, and an invariant point spread function (PSF) h that attempts to account for the earthquake source process. The method is used on the shear wave time window containing SKS and S, whereby using a Gaussian PSF produces more impulsive, narrower, signals in the wave train. The resulting restored time-series facilitates more accurate and objective relative traveltime estimation of the individual seismic arrivals. We demonstrate the accuracy of the reconstruction method on synthetic seismograms generated by the reflectivity method. Clean and sharp reconstructions are obtained with real data, even for signals with relatively high noise content. Reconstructed signals are simpler, more impulsive, and narrower, which allows highlighting of some details of arrivals that are not readily apparent in raw waveforms. In particular, phases nearly coincident in time can be separately identified after processing. This is demonstrated for two seismic wave pairs used to probe deep mantle and core-mantle boundary structure: (1) the Sab and Scd arrivals, which travel above and within, respectively, a 200-300-km-thick, higher than average shear wave velocity layer at the base of the mantle, observable in the 88-92 deg epicentral distance range and (2) SKS and SPdiff KS, which are core waves with the latter having short arcs of P-wave diffraction, and are nearly identical in timing near 108-110 deg in distance. A Java/Matlab algorithm was developed for the signal restoration, which can be downloaded from the authors web page, along with example data and synthetic seismograms.

Locating single-point sources from arrival times containing large picking errors (LPEs): the virtual field optimization method (VFOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xi-Bing; Wang, Ze-Wei; Dong, Long-Jun

2016-01-01

Microseismic monitoring systems using local location techniques tend to be timely, automatic and stable. One basic requirement of these systems is the automatic picking of arrival times. However, arrival times generated by automated techniques always contain large picking errors (LPEs), which may make the location solution unreliable and cause the integrated system to be unstable. To overcome the LPE issue, we propose the virtual field optimization method (VFOM) for locating single-point sources. In contrast to existing approaches, the VFOM optimizes a continuous and virtually established objective function to search the space for the common intersection of the hyperboloids, which is determined by sensor pairs other than the least residual between the model-calculated and measured arrivals. The results of numerical examples and in-site blasts show that the VFOM can obtain more precise and stable solutions than traditional methods when the input data contain LPEs. Furthermore, we discuss the impact of LPEs on objective functions to determine the LPE-tolerant mechanism, velocity sensitivity and stopping criteria of the VFOM. The proposed method is also capable of locating acoustic sources using passive techniques such as passive sonar detection and acoustic emission.

Complex analysis of neuronal spike trains of deep brain nuclei in patients with Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Chan, Hsiao-Lung; Lin, Ming-An; Lee, Shih-Tseng; Tsai, Yu-Tai; Chao, Pei-Kuang; Wu, Tony

2010-04-05

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) has been used to alleviate symptoms of Parkinson's disease. During image-guided stereotactic surgery, signals from microelectrode recordings are used to distinguish the STN from adjacent areas, particularly from the substantia nigra pars reticulata (SNr). Neuronal firing patterns based on interspike intervals (ISI) are commonly used. In the present study, arrival time-based measures, including Lempel-Ziv complexity and deviation-from-Poisson index were employed. Our results revealed significant differences in the arrival time-based measures among non-motor STN, motor STN and SNr and better discrimination than the ISI-based measures. The larger deviations from the Poisson process in the SNr implied less complex dynamics of neuronal discharges. If spike classification was not used, the arrival time-based measures still produced statistical differences among STN subdivisions and SNr, but the ISI-based measures only showed significant differences between motor and non-motor STN. Arrival time-based measures are less affected by spike misclassifications, and may be used as an adjunct for the identification of the STN during microelectrode targeting. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

February precipitation in the wintering grounds of the lesser whitethroat, Sylvia curruca: is it a cue for migration onset?

PubMed

Aloni, Irith; Markman, Shai; Ziv, Yaron

2017-02-01

Numerous studies report shifts in bird migration phenology, presumably owing to global warming. However, most studies focus on migration patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study, we investigated associations between weather conditions in African wintering grounds of the lesser whitethroat, Sylvia curruca, and spring arrival time in Eilat, Israel. Using multivariate regression models, we analysed a 30-year dataset in order to examine correlations between median springtime arrival and 46 climate variables of the wintering quarters. The model obtained exhibited a highly statistical fit, involving mean precipitation in February and March with negative effects and number of wet days during November-February. February precipitation levels were also the major factor associated with the interquartile range of arrival time. Interestingly and contrary to published results, annual or seasonal precipitation showed no correlation with spring arrival time, nor did temperature. Moreover, winter in this region falls into dry season with negligible rainfall quantities. Hence, it is unlikely that precipitation effect on habitat productivity is a driving force of migration, as suggested by other studies. Instead, we propose that precipitation in February acts as a cue for the birds, indicating the approach of spring and migration time.

Discordance between 'actual' and 'scheduled' check-in times at a heart failure clinic

PubMed Central

Joyce, Emer; Gandesbery, Benjamin T.; Blackstone, Eugene H.; Taylor, David O.; Tang, W. H. Wilson; Starling, Randall C.; Hachamovitch, Rory

2017-01-01

Introduction A 2015 Institute Of Medicine statement “Transforming Health Care Scheduling and Access: Getting to Now”, has increased concerns regarding patient wait times. Although waiting times have been widely studied, little attention has been paid to the role of patient arrival times as a component of this phenomenon. To this end, we investigated patterns of patient arrival at scheduled ambulatory heart failure (HF) clinic appointments and studied its predictors. We hypothesized that patients are more likely to arrive later than scheduled, with progressively later arrivals later in the day. Methods and results Using a business intelligence database we identified 6,194 unique patients that visited the Cleveland Clinic Main Campus HF clinic between January, 2015 and January, 2017. This clinic served both as a tertiary referral center and a community HF clinic. Transplant and left ventricular assist device (LVAD) visits were excluded. Punctuality was defined as the difference between ‘actual’ and ‘scheduled’ check-in times, whereby negative values (i.e., early punctuality) were patients who checked-in early. Contrary to our hypothesis, we found that patients checked-in late only a minority of the time (38% of visits). Additionally, examining punctuality by appointment hour slot we found that patients scheduled after 8AM had progressively earlier check-in times as the day progressed (P < .001 for trend). In both a Random Forest-Regression framework and linear regression models the most important risk-adjusted predictors of early punctuality were: later in the day appointment hour slot, patient having previously been to the hospital, age in the early 70s, and white race. Conclusions Patients attending a mixed population ambulatory HF clinic check-in earlier than scheduled times, with progressive discrepant intervals throughout the day. This finding may have significant implications for provider utilization and resource planning in order to maximize clinic efficiency. The impact of elective early arrival on patient’s perceived wait times requires further study. PMID:29136649

Discordance between 'actual' and 'scheduled' check-in times at a heart failure clinic.

PubMed

Gorodeski, Eiran Z; Joyce, Emer; Gandesbery, Benjamin T; Blackstone, Eugene H; Taylor, David O; Tang, W H Wilson; Starling, Randall C; Hachamovitch, Rory

2017-01-01

A 2015 Institute Of Medicine statement "Transforming Health Care Scheduling and Access: Getting to Now", has increased concerns regarding patient wait times. Although waiting times have been widely studied, little attention has been paid to the role of patient arrival times as a component of this phenomenon. To this end, we investigated patterns of patient arrival at scheduled ambulatory heart failure (HF) clinic appointments and studied its predictors. We hypothesized that patients are more likely to arrive later than scheduled, with progressively later arrivals later in the day. Using a business intelligence database we identified 6,194 unique patients that visited the Cleveland Clinic Main Campus HF clinic between January, 2015 and January, 2017. This clinic served both as a tertiary referral center and a community HF clinic. Transplant and left ventricular assist device (LVAD) visits were excluded. Punctuality was defined as the difference between 'actual' and 'scheduled' check-in times, whereby negative values (i.e., early punctuality) were patients who checked-in early. Contrary to our hypothesis, we found that patients checked-in late only a minority of the time (38% of visits). Additionally, examining punctuality by appointment hour slot we found that patients scheduled after 8AM had progressively earlier check-in times as the day progressed (P < .001 for trend). In both a Random Forest-Regression framework and linear regression models the most important risk-adjusted predictors of early punctuality were: later in the day appointment hour slot, patient having previously been to the hospital, age in the early 70s, and white race. Patients attending a mixed population ambulatory HF clinic check-in earlier than scheduled times, with progressive discrepant intervals throughout the day. This finding may have significant implications for provider utilization and resource planning in order to maximize clinic efficiency. The impact of elective early arrival on patient's perceived wait times requires further study.

Attitudes to predictive DNA testing in familial adenomatous polyposis.

PubMed Central

Whitelaw, S; Northover, J M; Hodgson, S V

1996-01-01

Attitudes to predictive DNA testing for familial adenomatous polyposis were documented in 62 affected adults. Patient views on prenatal testing and termination of pregnancy for this disorder were sought, as were opinions on the most suitable age to offer predictive testing for at risk children and the most appropriate age to begin screening. While 15 (24%) of those questioned stated that they would proceed to termination of pregnancy if a prenatal test indicated that the unborn baby was affected, in clinical practice no one has yet requested this option. Six (10%) people who had refrained from having children for fear of passing on the polyposis gene felt that the arrival of prenatal testing would enable them to consider planning a family. The majority of patients (93%) said they would like their children tested by DNA analysis at birth or in infancy, but felt that 10 to 12 years was the most appropriate time to discuss the diagnosis with the child. PMID:8818937

An Analysis of the Relationship Between the Heat Index and Arrivals in the Emergency Department

PubMed Central

Levy, Matthew; Broccoli, Morgan; Cole, Gai; Jenkins, J Lee; Klein, Eili Y.

2015-01-01

Background: Heatwaves are one of the most deadly weather-related events in the United States and account for more deaths annually than hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and earthquakes combined. However, there are few statistically rigorous studies of the effect of heatwaves on emergency department (ED) arrivals. A better understanding of this relationship can help hospitals plan better and provide better care for patients during these types of events. Methods: A retrospective review of all ED patient arrivals that occurred from April 15 through August 15 for the years 2008 through 2013 was performed. Daily patient arrival data were combined with weather data (temperature and humidity) to examine the potential relationships between the heat index and ED arrivals as well as the length of time patients spend in the ED using generalized additive models. In particular the effect the 2012 heat wave that swept across the United States, and which was hypothesized to increase arrivals was examined. Results: While there was no relationship found between the heat index and arrivals on a single day, a non-linear relationship was found between the mean three-day heat index and the number of daily arrivals. As the mean three-day heat index initially increased, the number of arrivals significantly declined. However, as the heat index continued to increase, the number of arrivals increased. It was estimated that there was approximately a 2% increase in arrivals when the mean heat index for three days approached 100°F. This relationship was strongest for adults aged 18-64, as well as for patients arriving with lower acuity. Additionally, a positive relationship was noted between the mean three-day heat index and the length of stay (LOS) for patients in the ED, but no relationship was found for the time from which a patient was first seen to when a disposition decision was made. No significant relationship was found for the effect of the 2012 heat wave on ED arrivals, though it did have an effect on patient LOS. Conclusion: A single hot day has only a limited effect on ED arrivals, but continued hot weather has a cumulative effect. When the heat index is high (~90°F) for a number of days in a row, this curtails peoples activities, but if the heat index is very hot (~100°F) this likely results in an exacerbation of underlying conditions as well as heat-related events that drives an increase in ED arrivals. Periods of high heat also affects the length of stay of patients either by complicating care or by making it more difficult to discharge patients. PMID:26579329