Attention Modulates Spatial Precision in Multiple-Object Tracking.

PubMed

Srivastava, Nisheeth; Vul, Ed

2016-01-01

We present a computational model of multiple-object tracking that makes trial-level predictions about the allocation of visual attention and the effect of this allocation on observers' ability to track multiple objects simultaneously. This model follows the intuition that increased attention to a location increases the spatial resolution of its internal representation. Using a combination of empirical and computational experiments, we demonstrate the existence of a tight coupling between cognitive and perceptual resources in this task: Low-level tracking of objects generates bottom-up predictions of error likelihood, and high-level attention allocation selectively reduces error probabilities in attended locations while increasing it at non-attended locations. Whereas earlier models of multiple-object tracking have predicted the big picture relationship between stimulus complexity and response accuracy, our approach makes accurate predictions of both the macro-scale effect of target number and velocity on tracking difficulty and micro-scale variations in difficulty across individual trials and targets arising from the idiosyncratic within-trial interactions of targets and distractors. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Non-Cholesterol Sterol Levels Predict Hyperglycemia and Conversion to Type 2 Diabetes in Finnish Men

PubMed Central

Cederberg, Henna; Gylling, Helena; Miettinen, Tatu A.; Paananen, Jussi; Vangipurapu, Jagadish; Pihlajamäki, Jussi; Kuulasmaa, Teemu; Stančáková, Alena; Smith, Ulf; Kuusisto, Johanna; Laakso, Markku

2013-01-01

We investigated the levels of non-cholesterol sterols as predictors for the development of hyperglycemia (an increase in the glucose area under the curve in an oral glucose tolerance test) and incident type 2 diabetes in a 5-year follow-up study of a population-based cohort of Finnish men (METSIM Study, N = 1,050) having non-cholesterol sterols measured at baseline. Additionally we determined the association of 538,265 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) with non-cholesterol sterol levels in a cross-sectional cohort of non-diabetic offspring of type 2 diabetes (the Kuopio cohort of the EUGENE2 Study, N = 273). We found that in a cross-sectional METSIM Study the levels of sterols indicating cholesterol absorption were reduced as a function of increasing fasting glucose levels, whereas the levels of sterols indicating cholesterol synthesis were increased as a function of increasing 2-hour glucose levels. A cholesterol synthesis marker desmosterol significantly predicted an increase, and two absorption markers (campesterol and avenasterol) a decrease in the risk of hyperglycemia and incident type 2 diabetes in a 5-year follow-up of the METSIM cohort, mainly attributable to insulin sensitivity. A SNP of ABCG8 was associated with fasting plasma glucose levels in a cross-sectional study but did not predict hyperglycemia or incident type 2 diabetes. In conclusion, the levels of some, but not all non-cholesterol sterols are markers of the worsening of hyperglycemia and type 2 diabetes. PMID:23840693

Long-term cortisol measures predict Alzheimer disease risk.

PubMed

Ennis, Gilda E; An, Yang; Resnick, Susan M; Ferrucci, Luigi; O'Brien, Richard J; Moffat, Scott D

2017-01-24

To examine whether long-term measures of cortisol predict Alzheimer disease (AD) risk. We used a prospective longitudinal design to examine whether cortisol dysregulation was related to AD risk. Participants were from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA) and submitted multiple 24-hour urine samples over an average interval of 10.56 years. Urinary free cortisol (UFC) and creatinine (Cr) were measured, and a UFC/Cr ratio was calculated to standardize UFC. To measure cortisol regulation, we used within-person UFC/Cr level (i.e., within-person mean), change in UFC/Cr over time (i.e., within-person slope), and UFC/Cr variability (i.e., within-person coefficient of variation). Cox regression was used to assess whether UFC/Cr measures predicted AD risk. UFC/Cr level and UFC/Cr variability, but not UFC/Cr slope, were significant predictors of AD risk an average of 2.9 years before AD onset. Elevated UFC/Cr level and elevated UFC/Cr variability were related to a 1.31- and 1.38-times increase in AD risk, respectively. In a sensitivity analysis, increased UFC/Cr level and increased UFC/Cr variability predicted increased AD risk an average of 6 years before AD onset. Cortisol dysregulation as manifested by high UFC/Cr level and high UFC/Cr variability may modulate the downstream clinical expression of AD pathology or be a preclinical marker of AD. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Modelling obesity trends in Australia: unravelling the past and predicting the future.

PubMed

Hayes, A J; Lung, T W C; Bauman, A; Howard, K

2017-01-01

Modelling is increasingly being used to predict the epidemiology of obesity progression and its consequences. The aims of this study were: (a) to present and validate a model for prediction of obesity among Australian adults and (b) to use the model to project the prevalence of obesity and severe obesity by 2025. Individual level simulation combined with survey estimation techniques to model changing population body mass index (BMI) distribution over time. The model input population was derived from a nationally representative survey in 1995, representing over 12 million adults. Simulations were run for 30 years. The model was validated retrospectively and then used to predict obesity and severe obesity by 2025 among different aged cohorts and at a whole population level. The changing BMI distribution over time was well predicted by the model and projected prevalence of weight status groups agreed with population level data in 2008, 2012 and 2014.The model predicts more growth in obesity among younger than older adult cohorts. Projections at a whole population level, were that healthy weight will decline, overweight will remain steady, but obesity and severe obesity prevalence will continue to increase beyond 2016. Adult obesity prevalence was projected to increase from 19% in 1995 to 35% by 2025. Severe obesity (BMI>35), which was only around 5% in 1995, was projected to be 13% by 2025, two to three times the 1995 levels. The projected rise in obesity severe obesity will have more substantial cost and healthcare system implications than in previous decades. Having a robust epidemiological model is key to predicting these long-term costs and health outcomes into the future.

Predicting Long-term Temperature Increase for Time-Dependent SAR Levels with a Single Short-term Temperature Response

PubMed Central

Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M.

2015-01-01

Purpose Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). Methods After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and Impulse-Response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes’ bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. Results The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time, and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. Conclusion With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. (200/200 words) PMID:26096947

Predicting long-term temperature increase for time-dependent SAR levels with a single short-term temperature response.

PubMed

Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M

2016-05-01

Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and impulse-response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes' bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A reinforcement sensitivity model of affective and behavioral dysregulation in marijuana use and associated problems.

PubMed

Emery, Noah N; Simons, Jeffrey S

2017-08-01

This study tested a model linking sensitivity to punishment (SP) and reward (SR) to marijuana use and problems via affect lability and poor control. A 6-month prospective design was used in a sample of 2,270 young-adults (64% female). The hypothesized SP × SR interaction did not predict affect lability or poor control, but did predict use likelihood at baseline. At low levels of SR, SP was associated with an increased likelihood of abstaining, which was attenuated as SR increased. SP and SR displayed positive main effects on both affect lability and poor control. Affect lability and poor control, in turn, mediated effects on the marijuana outcomes. Poor control predicted both increased marijuana use and, controlling for use level, greater intensity of problems. Affect lability predicted greater intensity of problems, but was not associated with use level. There were few prospective effects. SR consistently predicted greater marijuana use and problems. SP however, exhibited both risk and protective pathways. Results indicate that SP is associated with a decreased likelihood of marijuana use. However, once use is initiated SP is associated with increased risk of problems, in part, due to its effects on both affect and behavioral dysregulation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Patterns of change in early childhood aggressive-disruptive behavior: gender differences in predictions from early coercive and affectionate mother-child interactions.

PubMed

McFadyen-Ketchum, S A; Bates, J E; Dodge, K A; Pettit, G S

1996-10-01

The present study focused on mother-child interaction predictors of initial levels and change in child aggressive and disruptive behavior at school from kindergarten to third grade. Aggression-disruption was measured via annual reports from teachers and peers. Ordinary least-squares regression was used to identify 8 separate child aggression trajectories, 4 for each gender: high initial levels with increases in aggression, high initial levels with decrease in aggression, low initial levels with increases in aggression, and low initial levels with decreases in aggression. Mother-child interaction measures of coercion and nonaffection collected prior to kindergarten were predictive of initial levels of aggression-disruption in kindergarten in both boys and girls. However, boys and girls differed in how coercion and nonaffection predicted change in aggression-disruption across elementary school years. For boys, high coercion and nonaffection were particularly associated with the high-increasing-aggression trajectory, but for girls, high levels of coercion and nonaffection were associated with the high-decreasing-aggression trajectory. This difference is discussed in the context of Patterson et al.'s coercion training theory, and the need for gender-specific theories of aggressive development is noted.

An asymptotic theory of supersonic propeller noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Envia, Edmane

1992-01-01

A theory for predicting the noise field of supersonic propellers with realistic blade geometries is presented. The theory, which utilizes a large-blade-count approximation, provides an efficient formula for predicting the radiation of sound from all three sources of propeller noise. Comparisons with a full numerical integration indicate that the levels predicted by this formula are quite accurate. Calculations also show that, for high speed propellers, the noise radiated by the Lighthill quadrupole source is rather substantial when compared with the noise radiated by the blade thickness and loading sources. Results from a preliminary application of the theory indicate that the peak noise level generated by a supersonic propeller initially increases with increasing tip helical Mach number, but is eventually reaches a plateau and does not increase further. The predicted trend shows qualitative agreement with the experimental observations.

Individual and population-level responses to ocean acidification.

PubMed

Harvey, Ben P; McKeown, Niall J; Rastrick, Samuel P S; Bertolini, Camilla; Foggo, Andy; Graham, Helen; Hall-Spencer, Jason M; Milazzo, Marco; Shaw, Paul W; Small, Daniel P; Moore, Pippa J

2016-01-29

Ocean acidification is predicted to have detrimental effects on many marine organisms and ecological processes. Despite growing evidence for direct impacts on specific species, few studies have simultaneously considered the effects of ocean acidification on individuals (e.g. consequences for energy budgets and resource partitioning) and population level demographic processes. Here we show that ocean acidification increases energetic demands on gastropods resulting in altered energy allocation, i.e. reduced shell size but increased body mass. When scaled up to the population level, long-term exposure to ocean acidification altered population demography, with evidence of a reduction in the proportion of females in the population and genetic signatures of increased variance in reproductive success among individuals. Such increased variance enhances levels of short-term genetic drift which is predicted to inhibit adaptation. Our study indicates that even against a background of high gene flow, ocean acidification is driving individual- and population-level changes that will impact eco-evolutionary trajectories.

Modeling of exposure to carbon monoxide in fires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cagliostro, D. E.

1980-01-01

A mathematical model is developed to predict carboxyhemoglobin concentrations in regions of the body for short exposures to carbon monoxide levels expected during escape from aircraft fires. The model includes the respiratory and circulatory dynamics of absorption and distribution of carbon monoxide and carboxyhemoglobin. Predictions of carboxyhemoglobin concentrations are compared to experimental values obtained for human exposures to constant high carbon monoxide levels. Predictions are within 20% of experimental values. For short exposure times, transient concentration effects are predicted. The effect of stress is studied and found to increase carboxyhemoglobin levels substantially compared to a rest state.

Predictions of turbidity due to enhanced sediment resuspension resulting from sea-level rise on a fringing Coral Reef: Evidence from Molokai, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ogston, A.S.; Field, M.E.

2010-01-01

Accelerating sea-level rise associated with global climate change will affect sedimentary processes on coral reefs and other shoreline environments by increasing energy and sediment resuspension. On reefs, sedimentation is known to increase coral stress and bleaching as particles that settle on coral surfaces interfere with photosynthesis and feeding, and turbidity induced by suspended sediment reduces incident light levels. Using relationships developed from observations of wave orbital velocity, water-surface elevation, and suspended-sediment concentration on a fringing reef flat of Molokai, Hawaii, predictions of the average daily maximum in suspended-sediment concentration increase from ~11 mg/l to ~20 mg/l with 20 cm sea-level rise. The duration of time concentrations exceeds 10 mg/l increases from 9 to 37. An evaluation of the reduction of wave energy flux through breaking and frictional dissipation across the reef flat shows an increase of ~80 relative to the present will potentially reach the shoreline as sea level increases by 20 cm. Where the shoreline exists on low, flat terrain, the increased energy could cause significant erosion of the shoreline. Considering the sediment budget, the sediment flux is predicted to increase and removal of fine-grained sediment may be expedited on some fringing reefs, and sediment in storage on the inner reef could ultimately be reduced. However, increased shoreline erosion may add sediment and offset removal from the reef flat. The shifts in sediment availability and transport that will occur as result of a modest increase in sea level have wide application to fringing coral reefs elsewhere, as well as other shoreline environments. ?? 2010 the Coastal Education & Research Foundation (CERF).

[A machine learning model using gut microbiome data for predicting changes of trimethylamine-N-oxide in healthy volunteers after choline consumption].

PubMed

Lu, Jun-Qi; Wang, Shan; Yin, Jia; Wu, Shan; He, Yan; Zheng, Hui-Min; Sheng, Hua-Fang; Zhou, Hong-Wei

2017-03-20

To establish a machine learning model based on gut microbiota for predicting the level of trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) metabolism in vivo after choline intake to provide guidance of individualized precision diet and evidence for screening population at high risks of cardiovascular disease. We quantified plasma levels of TMAO in 18 healthy volunteers before and 8 h after a choline challenge (ingestion of two boiled eggs). The volunteers were divided into two groups with increased or decreased TMAO level following choline challenge. Fresh fecal samples were collected before taking fasting blood samples for amplifying 16S rRNA V4 tags, and the PCR products were sequenced using the platform of Illumina HiSeq 2000. The differences in gut microbiata between subjects with increased and decreased plasma TMAO were analyzed using QIIME. Based on the gut microbiota data and TMAO levels in the two groups, the prediction model was established using the machine learning random forest algorithm, and the validity of the model was tested using a verified dataset. An obvious difference was found in beta diversity of the gut microbota between the subjects with increased and decreased plasma TMAO level following choline challenge. The area under the curve (AUC) of the model was 86.39% (95% CI: 72.7%-100%). Using the verified dataset, the model showed a much higher probability for correctly predicting TMAO variation following choline challenge. The model is feasible and reliable for predicting the level of TMAO metabolism in vivo based on gut microbiota.

Momentary changes in craving predict smoking lapse behavior: a laboratory study.

PubMed

Motschman, Courtney A; Germeroth, Lisa J; Tiffany, Stephen T

2018-04-27

Current research on factors that predict smoking lapse behavior is limited in its ability to fully characterize the critical moments leading up to decisions to smoke. We used a validated and widely used experimental analogue for smoking lapse to assess how moment-to-moment dynamics of craving relate to decisions to smoke. Heavy smokers (N = 128, M age = 35.9) participated in a 50-min laboratory delay to smoking task on 2 consecutive days, earning money for each 5 min they remained abstinent or ending the task by choosing to smoke. Participants rated craving and negative affect levels immediately prior to each choice. Participants were randomized to smoking as usual (n = 50) or overnight abstinence (n = 50 successfully abstained, n = 22 failed abstaining) prior to session 2. Discrete-time hazard models were used to examine craving and negative affect as time-varying predictors of smoking. Higher craving levels prior to smoking opportunities predicted increased risk of smoking. When controlling for craving levels, incremental increases in craving predicted increased smoking risk. Increases in negative affect incrementally predicted increased smoking risk at session 2 only. Smokers who failed to abstain were at a higher risk of smoking than those who successfully abstained, whereas abstinent and non-abstinent smokers did not differ in smoking risk. Findings demonstrate an extension of the smoking lapse paradigm that can be utilized to capture momentary changes in craving that predict smoking behavior. Evaluations of nuanced craving experiences may inform clinical and pharmacological research on preventing smoking lapse and relapse.

Evaluation of potential impacts on Great Lakes water resources based on climate scenarios of two GCMs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lofgren, B.M.; Quinn, F.H.; Clites, A.H.; Assel, R.A.; Eberhardt, A.J.; Luukkonen, C.L.

2002-01-01

The results of general circulation model predictions of the effects of climate change from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (model CGCM1) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre (model HadCM2) have been used to derive potential impacts on the water resources of the Great Lakes basin. These impacts can influence the levels of the Great Lakes and the volumes of channel flow among them, thus affecting their value for interests such as riparians, shippers, recreational boaters, and natural ecosystems. On one hand, a hydrological modeling suite using input data from the CGCM1 predicts large drops in lake levels, up to a maximum of 1.38 m on Lakes Michigan and Huron by 2090. This is due to a combination of a decrease in precipitation and an increase in air temperature that leads to an increase in evaporation. On the other hand, using input from HadCM2, rises in lake levels are predicted, up to a maximum of 0.35 m on Lakes Michigan and Huron by 2090, due to increased precipitation and a reduced increase in air temperature. An interest satisfaction model shows sharp decreases in the satisfaction of the interests of commercial navigation, recreational boating, riparians, and hydropower due to lake level decreases. Most interest satisfaction scores are also reduced by lake level increases. Drastic reductions in ice cover also result from the temperature increases such that under the CGCM1 predictions, most of Lake Erie has 96% of its winters ice-free by 2090. Assessment is also made of impacts on the groundwater-dependent region of Lansing, Michigan.

PREDICTING LEVELS OF STRESS FROM BIOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT DATA: EMPIRICAL MODELS FROM THE EASTERN CORN BELT PLAINS, OHIO, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Interest is increasing in using biological community data to provide information on the specific types of anthropogenic influences impacting streams. We built empirical models that predict the level of six different types of stress with fish and benthic macroinvertebrate data as...

Hyaluronic Acid Levels Predict Risk of Hepatic Encephalopathy and Liver-Related Death in HIV/Viral Hepatitis Coinfected Patients

PubMed Central

Peters, Lars; Mocroft, Amanda; Soriano, Vincent; Rockstroh, Jürgen; Rauch, Andri; Karlsson, Anders; Knysz, Brygida; Pradier, Christian; Zilmer, Kai; Lundgren, Jens D.

2013-01-01

Background Whereas it is well established that various soluble biomarkers can predict level of liver fibrosis, their ability to predict liver-related clinical outcomes is less clearly established, in particular among HIV/viral hepatitis co-infected persons. We investigated plasma hyaluronic acid’s (HA) ability to predict risk of liver-related events (LRE; hepatic coma or liver-related death) in the EuroSIDA study. Methods Patients included were positive for anti-HCV and/or HBsAg with at least one available plasma sample. The earliest collected plasma sample was tested for HA (normal range 0–75 ng/mL) and levels were associated with risk of LRE. Change in HA per year of follow-up was estimated after measuring HA levels in latest sample before the LRE for those experiencing this outcome (cases) and in a random selection of one sixth of the remaining patients (controls). Results During a median of 8.2 years of follow-up, 84/1252 (6.7%) patients developed a LRE. Baseline median (IQR) HA in those without and with a LRE was 31.8 (17.2–62.6) and 221.6 ng/mL (74.9–611.3), respectively (p<0.0001). After adjustment, HA levels predicted risk of contracting a LRE; incidence rate ratios for HA levels 75–250 or ≥250 vs. <75 ng/mL were 5.22 (95% CI 2.86–9.26, p<0.0007) and 28.22 (95% CI 14.95–46.00, p<0.0001), respectively. Median HA levels increased substantially prior to developing a LRE (107.6 ng/mL, IQR 0.8 to 251.1), but remained stable for controls (1.0 ng/mL, IQR –5.1 to 8.2), (p<0.0001 comparing cases and controls), and greater increases predicted risk of a LRE in adjusted models (p<0.001). Conclusions An elevated level of plasma HA, particularly if the level further increases over time, substantially increases the risk of contracting LRE over the next five years. HA is an inexpensive, standardized and non-invasive supplement to other methods aimed at identifying HIV/viral hepatitis co-infected patients at risk of hepatic complications. PMID:23724041

Predictive Value of IL-8 for Sepsis and Severe Infections after Burn Injury - A Clinical Study

PubMed Central

Kraft, Robert; Herndon, David N; Finnerty, Celeste C; Cox, Robert A; Song, Juquan; Jeschke, Marc G

2014-01-01

The inflammatory response induced by burn injury contributes to increased incidence of infections, sepsis, organ failure, and mortality. Thus, monitoring post-burn inflammation is of paramount importance but so far there are no reliable biomarkers available to monitor and/or predict infectious complications after burn. As IL-8 is a major mediator for inflammatory responses, the aim of our study was to determine whether IL-8 expression can be used to predict post-burn sepsis, infections, and mortality other outcomes post-burn. Plasma cytokines, acute phase proteins, constitutive proteins, and hormones were analyzed during the first 60 days post injury from 468 pediatric burn patients. Demographics and clinical outcome variables (length of stay, infection, sepsis, multiorgan failure (MOF), and mortality were recorded. A cut-off level for IL-8 was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Statistical significance is set at (p<0.05). ROC analysis identified a cut-off level of 234 pg/ml for IL-8 for survival. Patients were grouped according to their average IL-8 levels relative to this cut off and stratified into high (H) (n=133) and low (L) (n=335) groups. In the L group, regression analysis revealed a significant predictive value of IL-8 to percent of total body surface area (TBSA) burned and incidence of MOF (p<0.001). In the H group IL-8 levels were able to predict sepsis (p<0.002). In the H group, elevated IL-8 was associated with increased inflammatory and acute phase responses compared to the L group (p<0.05). High levels of IL-8 correlated with increased MOF, sepsis, and mortality. These data suggest that serum levels of IL-8 may be a valid biomarker for monitoring sepsis, infections, and mortality in burn patients. PMID:25514427

Perceptions of Crowding: Predicting at the Residence, Neighborhood, and City Levels.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmidt, Donald E.; And Others

1979-01-01

Details the results of a large-scale field study aimed at testing two theories on human crowding. Found that psychological factors are increasingly important for the prediction of crowding as one moved from the immediate residence to the less immediate city level. Implications, limitations and further results are discussed. (Author/MA)

The interrelationship between preoperative anemia and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide: the effect on predicting postoperative cardiac outcome in vascular surgery patients.

PubMed

Goei, Dustin; Flu, Willem-Jan; Hoeks, Sanne E; Galal, Wael; Dunkelgrun, Martin; Boersma, Eric; Kuijper, Ruud; van Kuijk, Jan-Peter; Winkel, Tamara A; Schouten, Olaf; Bax, Jeroen J; Poldermans, Don

2009-11-01

N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) predicts adverse cardiac outcome in patients undergoing vascular surgery. However, several conditions might influence this prognostic value, including anemia. In this study, we evaluated whether anemia confounds the prognostic value of NT-proBNP for predicting cardiac events in patients undergoing vascular surgery. A detailed cardiac history, resting echocardiography, and hemoglobin and NT-proBNP levels were obtained in 666 patients before vascular surgery. Anemia was defined as serum hemoglobin <13 g/dL for men and <12 g/dL for women. Troponin T measurements and 12-lead electrocardiograms were performed on postoperative days 1, 3, 7, and 30 and whenever clinically indicated. The primary end point of the study was the composite of 30-day postoperative cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and troponin T release. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to assess the optimal cutoff value of NT-proBNP for the prediction of the composite end point. Multivariable regression analysis was used to assess the additional value of NT-proBNP for the prediction of postoperative cardiac events in nonanemic and anemic patients. Anemia was present in 206 patients (31%) before surgery. Hemoglobin level was inversely related with the NT-proBNP levels (beta coefficient = -2.242; P = 0.025). The optimal predictive cutoff value of NT-proBNP for predicting the composite cardiovascular outcome was 350 pg/mL. After adjustment for clinical cardiac risk factors, both anemia (odds ratio [OR] 1.53; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-2.99) and increased levels of NT-proBNP (OR 4.09; 95% CI: 2.19-7.64) remained independent predictors for postoperative cardiac events. However, increased levels of NT-proBNP were not predictive for the risk of adverse cardiac events in the subgroup of anemic patients (OR 2.16; 95% CI: 0.90-5.21). Both anemia and NT-proBNP are independently associated with an increased risk for postoperative cardiac events in patients undergoing vascular surgery. NT-proBNP has less predictive value in anemic patients.

Effect of Climate Change on Water Temperature and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

There is increasing evidence that our planet is warming and this warming is also resulting in rising sea levels. Estuaries which are located at the interface between land and ocean are impacted by these changes. We used CE-QUAL-W2 water quality model to predict changes in water temperature as a function of increasing air temperatures and rising sea level for the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon (USA). Annual average air temperature in the Yaquina watershed is expected to increase about 0.3 deg C per decade by 2040-2069. An air temperature increase of 3 deg C in the Yaquina watershed is likely to result in estuarine water temperature increasing by 0.7 to 1.6 deg C. Largest water temperature increases are expected in the upper portion of the estuary, while sea level rise may ameliorate some of the warming in the lower portion of the estuary. Smallest changes in water temperature are predicted to occur in the summer, and maximum changes during the winter and spring. Increases in air temperature may result in an increase in the number of days per year that the 7-day maximum average temperature exceeds 18 deg C (criterion for protection of rearing and migration of salmonids and trout) as well as other water quality concerns. In the upstream portion of the estuary, a 4 deg C increase in air temperature is predicted to cause an increase of 40 days not meeting the temperature criterion, while in the lower estuary the increase will depend upon rate of sea level rise (rang

Differences in the fatty-acid composition of rodent spermatozoa are associated to levels of sperm competition

PubMed Central

delBarco-Trillo, Javier; Mateo, Rafael; Roldan, Eduardo R. S.

2015-01-01

Sperm competition is a prevalent phenomenon that drives the evolution of sperm function. High levels of sperm competition lead to increased metabolism to fuel higher sperm velocities. This enhanced metabolism can result in oxidative damage (including lipid peroxidation) and damage to the membrane. We hypothesized that in those species experiencing high levels of sperm competition there are changes in the fatty-acid composition of the sperm membrane that makes the membrane more resistant to oxidative damage. Given that polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) are the most prone to lipid peroxidation, we predicted that higher sperm competition leads to a reduction in the proportion of sperm PUFAs. In contrast, we predicted that levels of sperm competition should not affect the proportion of PUFAs in somatic cells. To test these predictions, we quantified the fatty-acid composition of sperm, testis and liver cells in four mouse species (genus Mus) that differ in their levels of sperm competition. Fatty-acid composition in testis and liver cells was not associated to sperm competition levels. However, in sperm cells, as predicted, an increase in sperm competition levels was associated with an increase in the proportion of saturated fatty-acids (the most resistant to lipid peroxidation) and by a concomitant decrease in the proportion of PUFAs. Two particular fatty acids were most responsible for this pattern (arachidonic acid and palmitic acid). Our findings thus indicate that sperm competition has a pervasive influence in the composition of sperm cells that ultimately may have important effects in sperm function. PMID:25795911

A simple lead dust fall method predicts children's blood lead level: New evidence from Australia.

PubMed

Gulson, Brian; Taylor, Alan

2017-11-01

We have measured dust fall accumulation in petri dishes (PDD) collected 6 monthly from inside residences in Sydney urban area, New South Wales, Australia as part of a 5-year longitudinal study to determine environmental associations, including soil. with blood lead (PbB) levels. The Pb loading in the dishes (n = 706) had geometric means (GM) of 24µg/m 2 /30d, a median value of 22µg/m 2 /30d with a range from 0.2 to 11,390µg/m 2 /30d. Observed geometric mean PbB was 2.4µg/dL at ages 2-3 years. Regression analyses showed a statistically significant relationship between predicted PbB and PDD. The predicted PbB values from dust in our study are consistent with similar analyses from the US in which floor dust was collected by wipes. Predicted PbB values from PDD indicate that an increase in PDD of about 100µg/m 2 /30d would increase PbB by about 1.5µg/dL or a doubling PbB at the low levels currently observed in many countries. Predicted PbB values from soil indicate that a change from 0 to 1000mg Pb/kg results in an increase of 1.7µg/dL in PbB, consistent with earlier investigations. Blood Pb levels can be predicted from dust fall accumulation (and soil) in cases where blood sampling is not always possible, especially in young children. Petri dish loading data could provide an alternative or complementary "action level" at about 100µg Pb/m 2 /30 days, similar to the suggested level of about 110µg Pb/m 2 for surface wipes, for use in monitoring activities such as housing rehabilitation, demolition or soil resuspension. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developing strategies for predicting hyperkalemia in potassium-increasing drug-drug interactions.

PubMed

Eschmann, Emmanuel; Beeler, Patrick Emanuel; Schneemann, Markus; Blaser, Jürg

2017-01-01

To compare different strategies predicting hyperkalemia (serum potassium level ≥5.5 mEq/l) in hospitalized patients for whom medications triggering potassium-increasing drug-drug interactions (DDIs) were ordered. We investigated 5 strategies that combined prediction triggered at onset of DDI versus continuous monitoring and taking into account an increasing number of patient parameters. The considered patient parameters were identified using generalized additive models, and the thresholds of the prediction strategies were calculated by applying Youden's J statistic to receiver operation characteristic curves. Half of the data served as the calibration set, half as the validation set. We identified 132 incidences of hyperkalemia induced by 8413 potentially severe potassium-increasing DDIs among 76 467 patients. The positive predictive value (PPV) of those strategies predicting hyperkalemia at the onset of DDI ranged from 1.79% (undifferentiated anticipation of hyperkalemia due to the DDI) to 3.02% (additionally considering the baseline serum potassium) and 3.10% (including further patient parameters). Continuous monitoring significantly increased the PPV to 8.25% (considering the current serum potassium) and 9.34% (additional patient parameters). Continuous monitoring of the risk for hyperkalemia based on current potassium level shows a better predictive power than predictions triggered at the onset of DDI. This contrasts with efforts to improve DDI alerts by taking into account more patient parameters at the time of ordering. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Ferritin levels predict severe dengue.

PubMed

Soundravally, R; Agieshkumar, B; Daisy, M; Sherin, J; Cleetus, C C

2015-02-01

Currently, no tests are available to monitor and predict severity and outcome of dengue. To find potential markers that predict dengue severity, the present study validated the serum level of three acute-phase proteins α-1 antitrypsin, ceruloplasmin and ferritin in a pool of severe dengue cases compared to non-severe forms and other febrile illness controls. A total of 96 patients were divided into two equal groups with group 'A' comprising dengue-infected cases and group 'B' with other febrile illness cases negative for dengue. Out of 48 dengue-infected cases, 13 had severe dengue and the remaining 35 were classified as non-severe dengue. Immunoassays were performed to evaluate the serum levels of acute-phase proteins both on the day of admission and on the day of defervescence. The efficiency of individual proteins in predicting the disease severity was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve. The study did not find any significant difference in the levels of α-1 antitrypsin between the clinical groups. A significant increase in the levels of ceruloplasmin around defervescence in severe cases compared to non-severe and other febrile controls was observed and this is the first report describing the potential association of ceruloplasmin and dengue severity. Interestingly, a steady increase in the level of serum ferritin was recorded throughout the course of illness. Among all the three proteins, the elevated ferritin level could predict the disease severity with highest sensitivity and specificity of 76.9 and 83.3 %, respectively, on the day of admission and the same was found to be 90 and 91.6 % around defervescence. On the basis of this diagnostic efficiency, we propose that ferritin may serve as a potential biomarker for an early prediction of disease severity.

Reciprocal Longitudinal Associations Between Adolescent Twin Gambling and Delinquency.

PubMed

Vitaro, Frank; C Hartl, Amy; Laursen, Brett; Brendgen, Mara; Dionne, Ginette; Boivin, Michel

2015-12-01

This study examined sibling influence over gambling involvement and delinquency in a sample of 628 twins (151 male dyads, 163 female dyads). Self-reports of gambling involvement and delinquency were collected for each twin at ages 13, 14 and 15 years. Results revealed evidence of between-twin influence. Higher levels of an adolescent's delinquency predicted an increase in his or her co-twin's delinquency from age 13 to age 14 and from age 14 to age 15. In contrast, gambling behavior was unaffected by the co-twin's gambling involvement. Within-twins, higher initial levels of delinquency predicted a subsequent increase in gambling behavior from age 13 to age 14 and again from age 14 to age 15, and higher initial levels of gambling involvement predicted an increase in delinquency from age 14 to age 15. Between and within siblings effects are discussed in light of the scant literature on (a) sibling influence on gambling, and (b) the links between gambling and delinquency.

Can preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels predict survival and early recurrence in patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma?

PubMed

Wang, Jun-Ke; Hu, Hai-Jie; Shrestha, Anuj; Ma, Wen-Jie; Yang, Qin; Liu, Fei; Cheng, Nan-Sheng; Li, Fu-Yu

2017-07-11

To investigate the predictive values of preoperative and postoperative serum CA19-9 levels on survival and other prognostic factors including early recurrence in patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma. In univariate analysis, increased preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels in the light of different cut-off points (37, 100, 150, 200, 400, 1000 U/ml) were significantly associated with poor survival outcomes, of which the cut-off point of 150 U/ml showed the strongest predictive value (both P < 0.001). Preoperative to postoperative increase in CA19-9 level was also correlated with poor survival outcome (P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, preoperative CA19-9 level > 150 U/ml was significantly associated with lymph node metastasis (OR = 3.471, 95% CI 1.216-9.905; P = 0.020) and early recurrence (OR = 8.280, 95% CI 2.391-28.674; P = 0.001). Meanwhile, postoperative CA19-9 level > 150 U/ml was also correlated with early recurrence (OR = 4.006, 95% CI 1.107-14.459; P = 0.034). Ninety-eight patients who had undergone curative surgery for hilar cholangiocarcinoma between 1995 and 2014 in our institution were selected for the study. The correlations of preoperative and postoperative serum CA19-9 levels on the basis of different cut-off points with survival and various tumor factors were retrospectively analyzed with univariate and multivariate methods. In patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma, serum CA19-9 predict survival and early recurrence. Patients with increased preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels have poor survival outcomes and higher tendency of early recurrence.

Rumination prospectively predicts executive functioning impairments in adolescents.

PubMed

Connolly, Samantha L; Wagner, Clara A; Shapero, Benjamin G; Pendergast, Laura L; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

2014-03-01

The current study tested the resource allocation hypothesis, examining whether baseline rumination or depressive symptom levels prospectively predicted deficits in executive functioning in an adolescent sample. The alternative to this hypothesis was also evaluated by testing whether lower initial levels of executive functioning predicted increases in rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. A community sample of 200 adolescents (ages 12-13) completed measures of depressive symptoms, rumination, and executive functioning at baseline and at a follow-up session approximately 15 months later. Adolescents with higher levels of baseline rumination displayed decreases in selective attention and attentional switching at follow-up. Rumination did not predict changes in working memory or sustained and divided attention. Depressive symptoms were not found to predict significant changes in executive functioning scores at follow-up. Baseline executive functioning was not associated with change in rumination or depression over time. Findings partially support the resource allocation hypothesis that engaging in ruminative thoughts consumes cognitive resources that would otherwise be allocated towards difficult tests of executive functioning. Support was not found for the alternative hypothesis that lower levels of initial executive functioning would predict increased rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. Our study is the first to find support for the resource allocation hypothesis using a longitudinal design and an adolescent sample. Findings highlight the potentially detrimental effects of rumination on executive functioning during early adolescence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rumination prospectively predicts executive functioning impairments in adolescents

PubMed Central

Connolly, Samantha L.; Wagner, Clara A.; Shapero, Benjamin G.; Pendergast, Laura L.; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

2014-01-01

Background and objectives The current study tested the resource allocation hypothesis, examining whether baseline rumination or depressive symptom levels prospectively predicted deficits in executive functioning in an adolescent sample. The alternative to this hypothesis was also evaluated by testing whether lower initial levels of executive functioning predicted increases in rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. Methods A community sample of 200 adolescents (ages 12–13) completed measures of depressive symptoms, rumination, and executive functioning at baseline and at a follow-up session approximately 15 months later. Results Adolescents with higher levels of baseline rumination displayed decreases in selective attention and attentional switching at follow-up. Rumination did not predict changes in working memory or sustained and divided attention. Depressive symptoms were not found to predict significant changes in executive functioning scores at follow-up. Baseline executive functioning was not associated with change in rumination or depression over time. Conclusions Findings partially support the resource allocation hypothesis that engaging in ruminative thoughts consumes cognitive resources that would otherwise be allocated towards difficult tests of executive functioning. Support was not found for the alternative hypothesis that lower levels of initial executive functioning would predict increased rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. Our study is the first to find support for the resource allocation hypothesis using a longitudinal design and an adolescent sample. Findings highlight the potentially detrimental effects of rumination on executive functioning during early adolescence. PMID:23978629

Social Inclusion Predicts Lower Blood Glucose and Low-Density Lipoproteins in Healthy Adults.

PubMed

Floyd, Kory; Veksler, Alice E; McEwan, Bree; Hesse, Colin; Boren, Justin P; Dinsmore, Dana R; Pavlich, Corey A

2017-08-01

Loneliness has been shown to have direct effects on one's personal well-being. Specifically, a greater feeling of loneliness is associated with negative mental health outcomes, negative health behaviors, and an increased likelihood of premature mortality. Using the neuroendocrine hypothesis, we expected social inclusion to predict decreases in both blood glucose levels and low-density lipoproteins (LDLs) and increases in high-density lipoproteins (HDLs). Fifty-two healthy adults provided self-report data for social inclusion and blood samples for hematological tests. Results indicated that higher social inclusion predicted lower levels of blood glucose and LDL, but had no effect on HDL. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.

Eudaimonic growth: Narrative growth goals predict increases in ego development and subjective well-being 3 years later.

PubMed

Bauer, Jack J; McAdams, Dan P

2010-07-01

We examine (a) the normative course of eudaimonic well-being in emerging adulthood and (b) whether people's narratives of major life goals might prospectively predict eudaimonic growth 3 years later. We define eudaimonic growth as longitudinal increases in eudaimonic well-being, which we define as the combination of psychosocial maturity and subjective well-being (SWB). College freshmen and seniors took measures of ego development (ED; to assess maturity; Loevinger, 1976) and SWB at Time 1 (T1) and again 3 years later (Time 2). ED levels increased longitudinally across that time for men and T1 freshmen, but SWB levels did not change. Participants also wrote narratives of 2 major life goals at T1 that were coded for an explicit emphasis on specific kinds of personal growth. Participants' intellectual-growth goals (especially agentic ones) predicted increases in ED 3 years later, whereas participants' socioemotional-growth goals (especially communal ones) predicted increases in SWB 3 years later. These findings were independent of the effects of Big Five personality traits-notably conscientiousness, which on its own predicted increases in SWB. We discuss (a) emerging adulthood as the last stop for normative eudaimonic growth in modern society and (b) empirical and theoretical issues surrounding the relations among narrative identity, life planning, dispositional traits, eudaimonia, and 2 paths of personal growth.

Balancing Tuition Predictability and Affordability: The Pitfalls of Guaranteed Tuition Plans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delaney, Jennifer A.; Kearney, Tyler D.; Hemenway, Bradley

2016-01-01

As tuition levels rise, predictability is an increasingly important consideration of college financing. In this article, the authors explore contemporary policy tools intended to enhance tuition predictability. They specifically consider guaranteed tuition plans. The authors begin their discussion by considering the prevalence of guaranteed…

Childhood bullying involvement predicts low-grade systemic inflammation into adulthood

PubMed Central

Copeland, William E.; Wolke, Dieter; Lereya, Suzet Tanya; Shanahan, Lilly; Worthman, Carol; Costello, E. Jane

2014-01-01

Bullying is a common childhood experience that involves repeated mistreatment to improve or maintain one’s status. Victims display long-term social, psychological, and health consequences, whereas bullies display minimal ill effects. The aim of this study is to test how this adverse social experience is biologically embedded to affect short- or long-term levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), a marker of low-grade systemic inflammation. The prospective population-based Great Smoky Mountains Study (n = 1,420), with up to nine waves of data per subject, was used, covering childhood/adolescence (ages 9–16) and young adulthood (ages 19 and 21). Structured interviews were used to assess bullying involvement and relevant covariates at all childhood/adolescent observations. Blood spots were collected at each observation and assayed for CRP levels. During childhood and adolescence, the number of waves at which the child was bullied predicted increasing levels of CRP. Although CRP levels rose for all participants from childhood into adulthood, being bullied predicted greater increases in CRP levels, whereas bullying others predicted lower increases in CRP compared with those uninvolved in bullying. This pattern was robust, controlling for body mass index, substance use, physical and mental health status, and exposures to other childhood psychosocial adversities. A child’s role in bullying may serve as either a risk or a protective factor for adult low-grade inflammation, independent of other factors. Inflammation is a physiological response that mediates the effects of both social adversity and dominance on decreases in health. PMID:24821813

Childhood bullying involvement predicts low-grade systemic inflammation into adulthood.

PubMed

Copeland, William E; Wolke, Dieter; Lereya, Suzet Tanya; Shanahan, Lilly; Worthman, Carol; Costello, E Jane

2014-05-27

Bullying is a common childhood experience that involves repeated mistreatment to improve or maintain one's status. Victims display long-term social, psychological, and health consequences, whereas bullies display minimal ill effects. The aim of this study is to test how this adverse social experience is biologically embedded to affect short- or long-term levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), a marker of low-grade systemic inflammation. The prospective population-based Great Smoky Mountains Study (n = 1,420), with up to nine waves of data per subject, was used, covering childhood/adolescence (ages 9-16) and young adulthood (ages 19 and 21). Structured interviews were used to assess bullying involvement and relevant covariates at all childhood/adolescent observations. Blood spots were collected at each observation and assayed for CRP levels. During childhood and adolescence, the number of waves at which the child was bullied predicted increasing levels of CRP. Although CRP levels rose for all participants from childhood into adulthood, being bullied predicted greater increases in CRP levels, whereas bullying others predicted lower increases in CRP compared with those uninvolved in bullying. This pattern was robust, controlling for body mass index, substance use, physical and mental health status, and exposures to other childhood psychosocial adversities. A child's role in bullying may serve as either a risk or a protective factor for adult low-grade inflammation, independent of other factors. Inflammation is a physiological response that mediates the effects of both social adversity and dominance on decreases in health.

Evaluating the road safety effects of a fuel cost increase measure by means of zonal crash prediction modeling.

PubMed

Pirdavani, Ali; Brijs, Tom; Bellemans, Tom; Kochan, Bruno; Wets, Geert

2013-01-01

Travel demand management (TDM) consists of a variety of policy measures that affect the transportation system's effectiveness by changing travel behavior. The primary objective to implement such TDM strategies is not to improve traffic safety, although their impact on traffic safety should not be neglected. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the traffic safety impact of conducting a fuel-cost increase scenario (i.e. increasing the fuel price by 20%) in Flanders, Belgium. Since TDM strategies are usually conducted at an aggregate level, crash prediction models (CPMs) should also be developed at a geographically aggregated level. Therefore zonal crash prediction models (ZCPMs) are considered to present the association between observed crashes in each zone and a set of predictor variables. To this end, an activity-based transportation model framework is applied to produce exposure metrics which will be used in prediction models. This allows us to conduct a more detailed and reliable assessment while TDM strategies are inherently modeled in the activity-based models unlike traditional models in which the impact of TDM strategies are assumed. The crash data used in this study consist of fatal and injury crashes observed between 2004 and 2007. The network and socio-demographic variables are also collected from other sources. In this study, different ZCPMs are developed to predict the number of injury crashes (NOCs) (disaggregated by different severity levels and crash types) for both the null and the fuel-cost increase scenario. The results show a considerable traffic safety benefit of conducting the fuel-cost increase scenario apart from its impact on the reduction of the total vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT). A 20% increase in fuel price is predicted to reduce the annual VKT by 5.02 billion (11.57% of the total annual VKT in Flanders), which causes the total NOCs to decline by 2.83%. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Positive life events predict salivary cortisol in pregnant women.

PubMed

Pluess, Michael; Wurmser, Harald; Buske-Kirschbaum, Angelika; Papousek, Mechthild; Pirke, Karl-Martin; Hellhammer, Dirk; Bolten, Margarete

2012-08-01

Maternal stress during pregnancy has been repeatedly associated with problematic child development. According to the fetal programming hypothesis adverse experiences during pregnancy increase maternal cortisol, which is then assumed to exert a negative effect on fetal development. Recent studies in non-pregnant women report significant associations between positive emotionality and low cortisol levels. We tested in a sample of 60 pregnant women whether both negative and positive life events independently predicted third-trimester baseline awakening cortisol levels. While the effect of negative life events proved unrelated positive life events significantly predicted lower cortisol levels. These findings suggest that positive experiences are of relevance regarding maternal morning cortisol levels in pregnancy reflecting a resource with potentially beneficial effects for the mother and the developing fetus. It might be promising for psychological intervention programs to focus on increasing positive experiences of the expecting mother rather than exclusively trying to reduce maternal stress during pregnancy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Growth in Temperament and Parenting as Predictors of Adjustment During Children’s Transition to Adolescence

PubMed Central

Lengua, Liliana J.

2014-01-01

The author examined relations among demographic risk (income, maternal education, single-parent status), growth in temperament (fear, irritability, effortful control), and parenting (rejection, inconsistent discipline) across 3 years and the prediction of children’s adjustment problems in a community sample (N = 190; ages 8–12 years at Time 1). Family income was related to higher initial levels of fear, irritability, rejection, and inconsistency and lower effortful control but was not related to changes in these variables. Higher initial rejection predicted increases in child fear and irritability. Higher initial fear predicted decreases in rejection and inconsistency. Higher initial irritability predicted increases in inconsistency, and higher initial effortful control predicted decreases in rejection. When growth of parenting and temperament were considered simultaneously, increases in effortful control and decreases in fear and irritability predicted lower Time 3 internalizing and externalizing problems. Increases in rejection and inconsistent discipline predicted higher Time 3 externalizing, although sometimes the effect appeared to be indirect through temperament. The findings suggest that temperament and parenting predict changes in each other and predict adjustment during the transition to adolescence. PMID:16953689

ASSOCIATIONS OF ADIPONECTIN, LEPTIN LEVELS, AND THE CHANGE OF BODY COMPOSITION IN PATIENTS ON PERITONEAL DIALYSIS: A PROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY.

PubMed

Xu, Xiao; Tian, Xue; Chen, Yuan; Yang, Zhi-Kai; Qu, Zhen; Dong, Jie

2018-04-19

Although the association between adipokines such as adiponectin, leptin, and body composition has been noted, whether they could predict the change of fat mass and lean body mass is unknown. We aimed to examine these associations in patients on peritoneal dialysis (PD) through a prospective cohort study. Body composition (by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry) including fat mass and lean body mass were examined at baseline and then at year 3. Serum leptin and adiponectin levels were measured. Demographic data, comorbidity, biochemical data, inflammation (high-sensitive C-reactive protein [hs-CRP]) and insulin resistance (homeostatic model assessment [HOMA-IR]) were also examined. At baseline, serum adiponectin levels were significantly inversely correlated with weight, lean body mass index (LBMI), fat mass index (FMI), lean body mass (LBM), and fat mass (FM) in 213 prevalent patients. At year 3, FMI, LBMI, FM, and the percentage of FM (FM%) increased while the percentage of LBM (LBM%) significantly decreased despite unchanged weight and LBM among the remaining 112 patients. After adjustment for demographic data, comorbidities, hs-CRP, HOMA-IR, and daily energy intake (DEI), serum adiponectin at baseline was not associated with increases in LBMI, FMI, and FM, but independently associated with an increase in FM% and a decrease in LBM%. The predictive effect of high-serum adiponectin level on mortality disappeared after adjusting for diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Serum leptin was not associated with any changes in body composition during the follow-up, nor with the mortality in this cohort. A high adiponectin level could predict an increase in FM% and a decrease in LBM% during a 3-year follow-up in PD patients. Serum adiponectin could not independently predict mortality in PD patients.

The development of callous-unemotional traits and antisocial behavior in children: are there shared and/or unique predictors?

PubMed

Pardini, Dustin A; Lochman, John E; Powell, Nicole

2007-01-01

Callous and unemotional (CU) traits have been linked to severe antisocial behavior in youth, but studies examining the etiology of CU traits are lacking. Based on prior research, it was hypothesized that childhood anxiety and parenting practices would interact to predict changes in CU traits over time. Hypotheses were tested using a sample of 120 moderate to highly aggressive fifth graders followed over a 1-year period. Although CU traits displayed moderate temporal stability and predicted increases in antisocial behavior, evidence suggested that these features were not immutable. Children exposed to lower levels of physical punishment showed decreases in CU traits over time, whereas higher levels of child-reported parental warmth and involvement predicted decreases in both CU traits and antisocial behavior over time. Lower levels of anxiety were uniquely related to increased CU traits for children who described their primary caregiver as exhibiting low warmth and involvement.

Putting reward in art: A tentative prediction error account of visual art

PubMed Central

Van de Cruys, Sander; Wagemans, Johan

2011-01-01

The predictive coding model is increasingly and fruitfully used to explain a wide range of findings in perception. Here we discuss the potential of this model in explaining the mechanisms underlying aesthetic experiences. Traditionally art appreciation has been associated with concepts such as harmony, perceptual fluency, and the so-called good Gestalt. We observe that more often than not great artworks blatantly violate these characteristics. Using the concept of prediction error from the predictive coding approach, we attempt to resolve this contradiction. We argue that artists often destroy predictions that they have first carefully built up in their viewers, and thus highlight the importance of negative affect in aesthetic experience. However, the viewer often succeeds in recovering the predictable pattern, sometimes on a different level. The ensuing rewarding effect is derived from this transition from a state of uncertainty to a state of increased predictability. We illustrate our account with several example paintings and with a discussion of art movements and individual differences in preference. On a more fundamental level, our theorizing leads us to consider the affective implications of prediction confirmation and violation. We compare our proposal to other influential theories on aesthetics and explore its advantages and limitations. PMID:23145260

Modeling and predicting the biofilm formation of Salmonella Virchow with respect to temperature and pH.

PubMed

Ariafar, M Nima; Buzrul, Sencer; Akçelik, Nefise

2016-03-01

Biofilm formation of Salmonella Virchow was monitored with respect to time at three different temperature (20, 25 and 27.5 °C) and pH (5.2, 5.9 and 6.6) values. As the temperature increased at a constant pH level, biofilm formation decreased while as the pH level increased at a constant temperature, biofilm formation increased. Modified Gompertz equation with high adjusted determination coefficient (Radj(2)) and low mean square error (MSE) values produced reasonable fits for the biofilm formation under all conditions. Parameters of the modified Gompertz equation could be described in terms of temperature and pH by use of a second order polynomial function. In general, as temperature increased maximum biofilm quantity, maximum biofilm formation rate and time of acceleration of biofilm formation decreased; whereas, as pH increased; maximum biofilm quantity, maximum biofilm formation rate and time of acceleration of biofilm formation increased. Two temperature (23 and 26 °C) and pH (5.3 and 6.3) values were used up to 24 h to predict the biofilm formation of S. Virchow. Although the predictions did not perfectly match with the data, reasonable estimates were obtained. In principle, modeling and predicting the biofilm formation of different microorganisms on different surfaces under various conditions could be possible.

Unchanged Levels of Soluble CD14 and IL-6 Over Time Predict Serious Non-AIDS Events in HIV-1-Infected People

PubMed Central

Sunil, Meena; Nigalye, Maitreyee; Somasunderam, Anoma; Martinez, Maria Laura; Yu, Xiaoying; Arduino, Roberto C.; Bell, Tanvir K.

2016-01-01

Abstract HIV-1-infected persons have increased risk of serious non-AIDS events (SNAEs) despite suppressive antiretroviral therapy. Increased circulating levels of soluble CD14 (sCD14), soluble CD163 (sCD163), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) at a single time point have been associated with SNAEs. However, whether changes in these biomarker levels predict SNAEs in HIV-1-infected persons is unknown. We hypothesized that greater decreases in inflammatory biomarkers would be associated with fewer SNAEs. We identified 39 patients with SNAEs, including major cardiovascular events, end stage renal disease, decompensated cirrhosis, non-AIDS-defining malignancies, and death of unknown cause, and age- and sex-matched HIV-1-infected controls. sCD14, sCD163, and IL-6 were measured at study enrollment (T1) and proximal to the event (T2) or equivalent duration in matched controls. Over ∼34 months, unchanged rather than decreasing levels of sCD14 and IL-6 predicted SNAEs. Older age and current illicit substance abuse, but not HCV coinfection, were associated with SNAEs. In a multivariate analysis, older age, illicit substance use, and unchanged IL-6 levels remained significantly associated with SNAEs. Thus, the trajectories of sCD14 and IL-6 levels predict SNAEs. Interventions to decrease illicit substance use may decrease the risk of SNAEs in HIV-1-infected persons. PMID:27344921

Role of electronic excited N2 in vibrational excitation of the N2 ground state at high latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, L.; Cartwright, D. C.; Brunger, M. J.; Teubner, P. J. O.

2006-09-01

Vibrationally excited N2 is important in determining the ionospheric electron density and has also been proposed to play a role in the production of NO in disturbed atmospheres. We report here predictions of the absolute vibrational distributions in the ground electronic state of N2 produced by electron impact excitation, at noon and midnight under quiet geomagnetic conditions and disturbed conditions corresponding to the aurora IBCII+ and IBCIII+ at 60°N latitude and 0° longitude, at altitudes between 130 and 350 km. These predictions were obtained from a model which includes thermal excitation and direct electron impact excitation of the vibrational levels of the N2 ground state and its excited electronic states; radiative cascade from all excited electronic states to all vibrational levels of the ground electronic state; quenching by O, O2, and N2; molecular and ambipolar diffusion; and the dominant chemical reactions. Results from this study show that for both aurora and daytime electron environments: (1) cascade from the higher electronic states of N2 determines the population of the higher vibrational levels in the N2 ground state and (2) the effective ground state vibrational temperature for levels greater than 4 in N2 is predicted to be in the range 4000-13000 K for altitudes greater than 200 km. Correspondingly, the associated enhancement factor for the O+ reaction with vibrationally excited N2 to produce NO+ is predicted to increase with increasing altitude (up to a maximum at a height which increases with auroral strength) for both aurora and daytime environments and to increase with increasing auroral strength. The contribution of the cascade from the excited electronic states was evaluated and found to be relatively minor compared to the direct excitation process.

Individual changes in clozapine levels after smoking cessation: results and a predictive model.

PubMed

Meyer, J M

2001-12-01

Published reports document 20-40% lower mean serum clozapine concentrations in smokers compared with nonsmokers due to enzyme induction. Despite the increase in nonsmoking psychiatric facilities in the United States, previous studies have not tracked individual changes in serum clozapine levels after smoking cessation. Clozapine level changes were analyzed in 11 patients at Oregon State Hospital who were on stable clozapine doses, before and after implementation of a hospital-wide nonsmoking policy. A mean increase in clozapine levels of 71.9% (442.4 ng/ml +/- 598.8 ng/ml) occurred upon smoking cessation (p < .034) from a baseline level of 550.2 ng/ml (+/- 160.18 ng/ml). One serious adverse event, aspiration pneumonia, was associated with a nonsmoking serum clozapine level of 3066 ng/ml. Elimination of statistically extreme results generated a mean increase of 57.4 % or 284.1 ng/ml (+/- 105.2 ng/ml) for the remaining cases (p < .001) and permitted construction of a linear model which explains 80.9% of changes in clozapine levels upon smoking cessation (F = 34.9;p = .001): clozapine level as nonsmoker = 45.3 + 1.474 (clozapine level as smoker). These findings suggest that significant increases in clozapine levels upon smoking cessation may be predicted by use of a model. Those with high baseline levels should be monitored for serious adverse events.

A New NOAA Research Initiative on the Seasonal Prediction of U.S. Coastal High Water Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariotti, A.; Archambault, H. M.; Barrie, D.; Huang, J.

2017-12-01

A crucial part of NOAA's service mission is to make U.S. communities more resilient to rises in coastal sea level, which on a seasonal timescale may increase the threat for nuisance ("sunny day") flooding, as well as enhance the severity of storm surge events. Over a season, variability in climate or ocean dynamics, in combination with longer-term trends, can influence coastal sea level in a way that is potentially predictable. To leverage these emerging scientific findings, the Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program, in partnership with the National Marine Fisheries Service, has funded a set of three-year projects starting in FY 2017 to help develop NOAA's capability to produce skillful seasonal (i.e, 2-9 month) predictions of coastal high water levels as well as changing living marine resources. This presentation will describe the goals, scope and intended activities of this research initiative and its coordination via a new MAPP Ocean Prediction Task Force.

Specialist-generalist model of body temperature regulation can be applied at the intraspecific level.

PubMed

Przybylska, Anna S; Boratyński, Jan S; Wojciechowski, Michał S; Jefimow, Małgorzata

2017-07-01

According to theoretical predictions, endothermic homeotherms can be classified as either thermal specialists or thermal generalists. In high cost environments, thermal specialists are supposed to be more prone to using facultative heterothermy than generalists. We tested this hypothesis at the intraspecific level using male laboratory mice (C57BL/cmdb) fasted under different thermal conditions (20 and 10°C) and for different time periods (12-48 h). We predicted that variability of body temperature ( T b ) and time spent with T b below normothermy would increase with the increase of environmental demands (duration of fasting and cold). To verify the above prediction, we measured T b and energy expenditure of fasted mice. We did not record torpor bouts but we found that variations in T b and time spent in hypothermia increased with environmental demands. In response to fasting, mice also decreased their energy expenditure. Moreover, animals that showed more precise thermoregulation when fed had more variable T b when fasted. We postulate that the prediction of the thermoregulatory generalist-specialist trade-off can be applied at the intraspecific level, offering a valid tool for identifying mechanistic explanations of the differences in animal responses to variations in energy supply. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Impact of Federal drug law enforcement on the supply of heroin in Australia.

PubMed

Smithson, Michael; McFadden, Michael; Mwesigye, Sue-Ellen

2005-08-01

To conduct an empirical investigation of the efficacy of law enforcement in reducing heroin supply in Australia. Specifically, this paper addresses the question of whether heroin purity levels in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) could be predicted by heroin seizures at the national level by the Australian Federal Police (AFP) in the preceding year. We considered two forms of evidence. First, a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) change-point model was used to discover (a) if there was a substantial increase in heroin seizures by the AFP, (b) when the increase began and (c) whether it occurred after increased funding to the Australian Federal Police for the purpose of drug law enforcement. Second, standard time-series methods were used to ascertain whether fluctuations in heroin seizure weights or the frequency of large-scale seizures after the aforementioned changes in seizure levels predicted fluctuations in heroin purity levels in the ACT after autocorrelation had been removed from the purity series. A Bayesian MCMC change-point model supported the hypothesis that heroin seizures rapidly increased about a year before the estimated decline in heroin purity and after the increased funding of AFP. The autoregression models suggested that 10-20% of the variance in the residuals of the heroin purity series was predicted by appropriately lagged residuals of the seizure-number and log-weight series, after autocorrelation had been removed. The overall results are consistent with the hypothesis that large-scale heroin seizures by the AFP reduce street-level heroin supply a year or so later, although the short-term dynamics suggest an 'opponent' response to residual fluctuations in seizures. To our knowledge, this is first time a connection has been identified between large-scale heroin seizures and street-level supply.

The effects of family, school, and classroom ecologies on changes in children's social competence and emotional and behavioral problems in first grade.

PubMed

Hoglund, Wendy L; Leadbeater, Bonnie J

2004-07-01

This study tested the independent and interactive influences of classroom (concentrations of peer prosocial behaviors and victimization), family (household moves, mothers' education), and school (proportion of students receiving income assistance) ecologies on changes in children's social competence (e.g., interpersonal skills, leadership abilities), emotional problems (e.g., anxious, withdrawn behaviors), and behavioral problems (e.g., disruptiveness, aggressiveness) in first grade. Higher classroom concentrations of prosocial behaviors and victimization predicted increases in social competence, and greater school disadvantage predicted decreases. Multiple household moves and greater school disadvantage predicted increases in behavioral problems. Multiple household moves and low levels of mothers' education predicted increases in emotional problems for children in classrooms with few prosocial behaviors. Greater school disadvantage predicted increases in emotional problems for children in classrooms with low prosocial behaviors and high victimization. Policy implications of these findings are considered. Copyright 2004 APA, all rights reserved

Self-reported assistive technology outcomes and personal characteristics in college students with less-apparent disabilities.

PubMed

Malcolm, Matt P; Roll, Marla C

2017-11-20

The impact of assistive technology (AT) services for college students with less-apparent disabilities is under-reported. Using the Canadian Occupational Performance Measure (COPM), we assessed student Performance and Satisfaction ratings of common academic tasks at the start and end of a semester during which 105 student-clients with less-apparent disabilities received AT services. We examined if COPM scores related to personal characteristics of gender, class-level (e.g., Sophomore), and STEM education; if personal characteristics predicted a student's follow-through with an AT service referral (n=231); and if personal characteristics and initial COPM scores predicted dropout from AT services (n=187). COPM ratings significantly increased in all academic tasks (p<.001). Gender predicted initial Satisfaction (male ratings > female ratings; p=.01), and Performance changes (females were more likely to have a service-meaningful change; p=.02). Higher class-level predicted better follow-through with a referral for AT services (p=.006). Increasing class-level (p=.05) and higher initial studying (p<.006) and reading (p<.029) ratings predicted a lower likelihood for dropout. These findings demonstrate that college students with less-apparent disabilities experience substantial improvements in their self-ratings of academic performance and satisfaction following AT services. Gender, class-level, and initial self-perceived reading and studying abilities may influence if and how the student participates with AT services.

Increased exhaled nitric oxide predicts new-onset rhinitis and persistent rhinitis in adolescents without allergic symptoms.

PubMed

Malinovschi, A; Alving, K; Kalm-Stephens, P; Janson, C; Nordvall, L

2012-03-01

The fraction of nitric oxide in exhaled air (FE(NO)) is increased in rhinitis and asthma. We have previously suggested that elevated FE(NO) levels in the absence of asthma symptoms may be a sign of 'early asthma'. In the present study, we hypothesize that elevated exhaled NO levels may also precede rhinitis symptoms. To investigate in a cohort of adolescents whether or not increased exhaled NO levels at the age of 13-14 years predicted new-onset or persistent rhinitis within a 4-year period. A total of 959 randomly selected adolescents (13-14 years) completed a questionnaire on respiratory symptoms at baseline and follow-up, 4 years later. Exhaled NO was measured at baseline. After exclusion of subjects with asthma diagnosis or asthma symptoms at baseline, 657 participants were eligible for the present study. Higher FE(NO) levels at baseline were associated with increased risk for new-onset (P = 0.009) and persistent rhinitis (P = 0.03) within a 4-year period. The risk of new-onset rhinitis was 2.32 (1.23, 4.37) [OR (95% CI)] times higher if FE(NO) > 90th percentile of the group without rhinitis at baseline. This increased risk for new-onset rhinitis was significant [2.49 (1.24, 5.01)] after excluding subjects with allergic symptoms. The risk of persistent rhinitis was 5.11 (1.34, 19.57) times higher if FE(NO) > 90th percentile of the group without rhinitis at baseline. Elevated exhaled nitric oxide levels predicted incident and persistent rhinitis in this population-based study of adolescents. Moreover, these findings were consistent after excluding subjects with allergic symptoms. Thus, it appears that elevation of exhaled NO precedes airway symptoms and predicts development of rhinitis in subjects without allergic symptoms or family history of allergic disease. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Serum hCG-β levels of postovulatory day 12 and 14 with the sequential application of hCG-β fold change significantly increased predictability of pregnancy outcome after IVF-ET cycle.

PubMed

Sung, Nayoung; Kwak-Kim, Joanne; Koo, H S; Yang, K M

2016-09-01

To investigate hCG-β level on postovulatory day (POD) 12 and its fold increase as predictors for pregnancy outcome after in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles. A retrospective cohort study was performed in total 1408 fresh and 598 frozen cycles between November 2008 and October 2011, which resulted in biochemical pregnancy, early pregnancy loss, or live birth of singleton pregnancy. The serum hCG-β levels of POD 12 and 14 were compared among biochemical pregnancy, early pregnancy loss, and live birth groups. The cutoff values of POD 12 and 14 hCG-β levels and the degree of hCG-β increase from POD 12 to 14 were determined for each pregnancy outcome. POD 12 and 14 hCG-β levels stratified based on pregnancy outcomes were significantly different among the biochemical pregnancy, early pregnancy loss, and live birth in both fresh and frozen cycles. Serum hCG-β levels of POD 12 and 14 and the fold increase of hCG-β levels from POD 12 to 14 significantly predict pregnancy outcomes after fresh and frozen cycles. Among these, the cutoff value of POD 14 hCG-β had the highest sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV). In fresh cycles, the cutoff values of POD 12 and 14 serum hCG-β levels for clinical pregnancies were 30.2 mIU/mL (sensitivity 81.3 %, specificity 79.6 %, and PPV 92.3 %) and 70.5 mIU/mL (sensitivity 88.4 %, specificity 85.2 %, and PPV 94.7 %). In pregnancies with POD 12 serum hCG-β levels ≥30.2 mIU/mL, the cutoff level of increase of hCG-β for clinical pregnancy was 2.56 (sensitivity 73.6 %, specificity 72.4 %, and PPV 97.8 %). Sequential application of cutoff values such as POD 12 hCG-β and fold increase of hCG-β improved predictability of pregnancy outcome as compared with that of POD 12 hCG-β alone. The cutoff values of POD 12 and 14 serum hCG-β levels for live birth were 40.5 mIU/mL (sensitivity 75.2 %, specificity 72.6 %, PPV 78.9 %) and 104.5 mIU/mL (sensitivity 80.3 %, specificity 74.1 %, PPV 80.8 %). In the frozen cycles, the cutoff values of POD 12 and 14 serum hCG-β level for clinical pregnancy were 31.5 IU/L (sensitivity 80.4 %, specificity 71.1 % and PPV 90 %) and 43.5 mIU/mL (sensitivity 72.6 %, specificity 71.7 %, PPV 77.2 %). In pregnancies with POD 12 serum hCG-β level ≥31.5 mIU/mL, the cutoff value for fold increase of hCG-β was 2.38 for clinical pregnancy (sensitivity 81.6 %, specificity 71.4 % and PPV 87.9 %). The cutoff values of POD 12 and 14 for live birth were 43.5 mIU/mL (sensitivity 72.6 %, specificity 71.7 %, PPV 77.2 %) and 101.6 mIU/mL (sensitivity 79.6 %, specificity 71.1 %, PPV 78.4 %). Sequential application of cutoff values for POD 12 hCG-β level and fold increase of hCG-β significantly increased PPV for live birth but not clinical pregnancy in frozen cycles. Early prediction of pregnancy outcome by using POD 12 and 14 cutoff levels and sequential application of cutoff value of fold increase could provide appropriate reference to health care providers to initiate earlier management of high-risk pregnancies and precise follow-up of abnormal pregnancies.

Biomarkers improve mortality prediction by prognostic scales in community-acquired pneumonia.

PubMed

Menéndez, R; Martínez, R; Reyes, S; Mensa, J; Filella, X; Marcos, M A; Martínez, A; Esquinas, C; Ramirez, P; Torres, A

2009-07-01

Prognostic scales provide a useful tool to predict mortality in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). However, the inflammatory response of the host, crucial in resolution and outcome, is not included in the prognostic scales. The aim of this study was to investigate whether information about the initial inflammatory cytokine profile and markers increases the accuracy of prognostic scales to predict 30-day mortality. To this aim, a prospective cohort study in two tertiary care hospitals was designed. Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP) and the systemic cytokines tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) and interleukins IL6, IL8 and IL10 were measured at admission. Initial severity was assessed by PSI (Pneumonia Severity Index), CURB65 (Confusion, Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, > or = 65 years of age) and CRB65 (Confusion, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, > or = 65 years of age) scales. A total of 453 hospitalised CAP patients were included. The 36 patients who died (7.8%) had significantly increased levels of IL6, IL8, PCT and CRP. In regression logistic analyses, high levels of CRP and IL6 showed an independent predictive value for predicting 30-day mortality, after adjustment for prognostic scales. Adding CRP to PSI significantly increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from 0.80 to 0.85, that of CURB65 from 0.82 to 0.85 and that of CRB65 from 0.79 to 0.85. Adding IL6 or PCT values to CRP did not significantly increase the AUC of any scale. When using two scales (PSI and CURB65/CRB65) and CRP simultaneously the AUC was 0.88. Adding CRP levels to PSI, CURB65 and CRB65 scales improves the 30-day mortality prediction. The highest predictive value is reached with a combination of two scales and CRP. Further validation of that improvement is needed.

Preservice music teachers' predictions, perceptions, and assessment of students with special needs: the need for training in student assessment.

PubMed

VanWeelden, Kimberly; Whipple, Jennifer

2007-01-01

The purpose of the current study was to examine preservice teachers' predictions and perceptions of students with special needs' levels of mastery of specific music education concepts and actual grades achieved by these students using alternative assessments and testing accommodations within two subpopulations: students with emotional and/or behavior disorders (EDBD) and students with acute cognitive delays (ACD). The preservice teachers predicted students within the EDBD class would achieve a significantly higher level of mastery of the music concepts than students within the ACD classroom. After the field experience, however, the preservice teachers' perceptions of all students' levels of mastery increased from prediction scores overall. Additionally, preservice teachers were able to execute testing accommodations and implement successful alternative assessments which gave empirical data on the students' levels of mastery of the music education concepts within the curriculum. Implications for music therapists, as consultants in special education, are discussed.

Ab Initio Study of the Electric Dipole Transition Moment for the Electronic X to C Transition in Acetylene: Theoretical Predictions of the Absorption and Magnetic Circular Dichroism Intensities

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

Symmetric C-C Stretch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 6. MCQ Intensities and Oscillator Strengths...chemical approach, but only at the SCF level , to predict an absorption oscillator strength of 0.072 for the (vertical) CE-X transition. An early...fact that the lower v’ levels agree better with experiment than the higher v’ levels suggests increasing inaccuracies in the Franck-Condon overlap with

Pretreatment data is highly predictive of liver chemistry signals in clinical trials.

PubMed

Cai, Zhaohui; Bresell, Anders; Steinberg, Mark H; Silberg, Debra G; Furlong, Stephen T

2012-01-01

The goal of this retrospective analysis was to assess how well predictive models could determine which patients would develop liver chemistry signals during clinical trials based on their pretreatment (baseline) information. Based on data from 24 late-stage clinical trials, classification models were developed to predict liver chemistry outcomes using baseline information, which included demographics, medical history, concomitant medications, and baseline laboratory results. Predictive models using baseline data predicted which patients would develop liver signals during the trials with average validation accuracy around 80%. Baseline levels of individual liver chemistry tests were most important for predicting their own elevations during the trials. High bilirubin levels at baseline were not uncommon and were associated with a high risk of developing biochemical Hy's law cases. Baseline γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) level appeared to have some predictive value, but did not increase predictability beyond using established liver chemistry tests. It is possible to predict which patients are at a higher risk of developing liver chemistry signals using pretreatment (baseline) data. Derived knowledge from such predictions may allow proactive and targeted risk management, and the type of analysis described here could help determine whether new biomarkers offer improved performance over established ones.

An empirical tool to evaluate the safety of cyclists: Community based, macro-level collision prediction models using negative binomial regression.

PubMed

Wei, Feng; Lovegrove, Gordon

2013-12-01

Today, North American governments are more willing to consider compact neighborhoods with increased use of sustainable transportation modes. Bicycling, one of the most effective modes for short trips with distances less than 5km is being encouraged. However, as vulnerable road users (VRUs), cyclists are more likely to be injured when involved in collisions. In order to create a safe road environment for them, evaluating cyclists' road safety at a macro level in a proactive way is necessary. In this paper, different generalized linear regression methods for collision prediction model (CPM) development are reviewed and previous studies on micro-level and macro-level bicycle-related CPMs are summarized. On the basis of insights gained in the exploration stage, this paper also reports on efforts to develop negative binomial models for bicycle-auto collisions at a community-based, macro-level. Data came from the Central Okanagan Regional District (CORD), of British Columbia, Canada. The model results revealed two types of statistical associations between collisions and each explanatory variable: (1) An increase in bicycle-auto collisions is associated with an increase in total lane kilometers (TLKM), bicycle lane kilometers (BLKM), bus stops (BS), traffic signals (SIG), intersection density (INTD), and arterial-local intersection percentage (IALP). (2) A decrease in bicycle collisions was found to be associated with an increase in the number of drive commuters (DRIVE), and in the percentage of drive commuters (DRP). These results support our hypothesis that in North America, with its current low levels of bicycle use (<4%), we can initially expect to see an increase in bicycle collisions as cycle mode share increases. However, as bicycle mode share increases beyond some unknown 'critical' level, our hypothesis also predicts a net safety improvement. To test this hypothesis and to further explore the statistical relationships between bicycle mode split and overall road safety, future research needs to pursue further development and application of community-based, macro-level CPMs. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Circulating complexes between tumour necrosis factor-alpha and etanercept predict long-term efficacy of etanercept in juvenile idiopathic arthritis.

PubMed

Kahn, Robin; Berthold, Elisabet; Gullstrand, Birgitta; Schmidt, Tobias; Kahn, Fredrik; Geborek, Pierre; Saxne, Tore; Bengtsson, Anders A; Månsson, Bengt

2016-04-01

The relationship between tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) and drug survival had not been studied in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), and there were no laboratory tests to predict the long-term efficacy of biological drugs for JIA. We studied whether serum levels of TNF-α, free or bound to etanercept, could predict long-term efficacy of etanercept in children with JIA. We included 41 biologic-naïve patients with JIA who started treatment with etanercept at Skåne University Hospital between 1999 and 2010. Serum taken at the start of treatment and at the six-week follow-up were analysed for TNF-α and the long-term efficacy of etanercept was assessed using the drug survival time. Levels of TNF-α increased significantly at the six-week follow-up, and this was almost exclusively comprised of TNF-α in complex with etanercept. The increase in TNF-α showed a dose-dependent correlation to long-term drug survival (p < 0.01). Increasing levels of circulating TNF-α at treatment initiation predicted long-term efficacy of etanercept in children with JIA, which may have been due to different pathophysiological mechanisms of inflammation. Our result may provide a helpful clinical tool, as high levels of circulating TNF-α/etanercept complexes could be used as a marker for the long-term efficacy of etanercept. ©2015 The Authors. Acta Paediatrica published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

Longitudinal Trend in Lipid Profile of Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients is Not Influenced by the Use of Biocompatible Solutions

PubMed Central

Cho, Yeoungjee; Büchel, Janine; Steppan, Sonja; Passlick-Deetjen, Jutta; Hawley, Carmel M.; Dimeski, Goce; Clarke, Margaret; Johnson, David W.

2016-01-01

♦ Background: The longitudinal trends of lipid parameters and the impact of biocompatible peritoneal dialysis (PD) solutions on these levels remain to be fully defined. The present study aimed to a) evaluate the influence of neutral pH, low glucose degradation product (GDP) PD solutions on serum lipid parameters, and b) explore the capacity of lipid parameters (total cholesterol [TC], triglyceride [TG], high density lipoprotein [HDL], TC/HDL, low density lipoprotein [LDL], very low density lipoprotein [VLDL]) to predict cardiovascular events (CVE) and mortality in PD patients. ♦ Methods: The study included 175 incident participants from the balANZ trial with at least 1 stored serum sample. A composite CVE score was used as a primary clinical outcome measure. Multilevel linear regression and Poisson regression models were fitted to describe the trend of lipid parameters over time and its ability to predict composite CVE, respectively. ♦ Results: Small but statistically significant increases in serum TG (coefficient 0.006, p < 0.001), TC/HDL (coefficient 0.004, p = 0.001), and VLDL cholesterol (coefficient 0.005, p = 0.001) levels and a decrease in the serum HDL cholesterol levels (coefficient −0.004, p = 0.009) were observed with longer time on PD, whilst the type of PD solution (biocompatible vs standard) received had no significant effect on these levels. Peritoneal dialysis glucose exposure was significantly associated with trends in TG, TC/HDL, HDL and VLDL levels. Baseline lipid parameter levels were not predictive of composite CVEs or all-cause mortality. ♦ Conclusion: Serum TG, TC/HDL, and VLDL levels increased and the serum HDL levels decreased with increasing PD duration. None of the lipid parameters were significantly modified by biocompatible PD solution use over the time period studied or predictive of composite CVE or mortality. PMID:26429421

An association between neighbourhood wealth inequality and HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Brodish, Paul Henry

2015-05-01

This paper investigates whether community-level wealth inequality predicts HIV serostatus using DHS household survey and HIV biomarker data for men and women ages 15-59 pooled from six sub-Saharan African countries with HIV prevalence rates exceeding 5%. The analysis relates the binary dependent variable HIV-positive serostatus and two weighted aggregate predictors generated from the DHS Wealth Index: the Gini coefficient, and the ratio of the wealth of households in the top 20% wealth quintile to that of those in the bottom 20%. In separate multilevel logistic regression models, wealth inequality is used to predict HIV prevalence within each statistical enumeration area, controlling for known individual-level demographic predictors of HIV serostatus. Potential individual-level sexual behaviour mediating variables are added to assess attenuation, and ordered logit models investigate whether the effect is mediated through extramarital sexual partnerships. Both the cluster-level wealth Gini coefficient and wealth ratio significantly predict positive HIV serostatus: a 1 point increase in the cluster-level Gini coefficient and in the cluster-level wealth ratio is associated with a 2.35 and 1.3 times increased likelihood of being HIV positive, respectively, controlling for individual-level demographic predictors, and associations are stronger in models including only males. Adding sexual behaviour variables attenuates the effects of both inequality measures. Reporting eleven plus lifetime sexual partners increases the odds of being HIV positive over five-fold. The likelihood of having more extramarital partners is significantly higher in clusters with greater wealth inequality measured by the wealth ratio. Disaggregating logit models by sex indicates important risk behaviour differences. Household wealth inequality within DHS clusters predicts HIV serostatus, and the relationship is partially mediated by more extramarital partners. These results emphasize the importance of incorporating higher-level contextual factors, investigating behavioural mediators, and disaggregating by sex in assessing HIV risk in order to uncover potential mechanisms of action and points of preventive intervention.

An association between neighborhood wealth inequality and HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

Brodish, Paul Henry

2016-01-01

Summary This paper investigates whether community-level wealth inequality predicts HIV serostatus, using DHS household survey and HIV biomarker data for men and women ages 15-59 pooled from six sub-Saharan African countries with HIV prevalence rates exceeding five percent. The analysis relates the binary dependent variable HIV positive serostatus and two weighted aggregate predictors generated from the DHS Wealth Index: the Gini coefficient, and the ratio of the wealth of households in the top 20% wealth quintile to that of those in the bottom 20%. In separate multilevel logistic regression models, wealth inequality is used to predict HIV prevalence within each SEA, controlling for known individual-level demographic predictors of HIV serostatus. Potential individual-level sexual behavior mediating variables are added to assess attenuation, and ordered logit models investigate whether the effect is mediated through extramarital sexual partnerships. Both the cluster-level wealth Gini coefficient and wealth ratio significantly predict positive HIV serostatus: a 1 point increase in the cluster-level Gini coefficient and in the cluster-level wealth ratio is associated with a 2.35 and 1.3 times increased likelihood of being HIV positive, respectively, controlling for individual-level demographic predictors, and associations are stronger in models including only males. Adding sexual behavior variables attenuates the effects of both inequality measures. Reporting 11 plus lifetime sexual partners increases the odds of being HIV positive over five-fold. The likelihood of having more extramarital partners is significantly higher in clusters with greater wealth inequality measured by the wealth ratio. Disaggregating logit models by sex indicates important risk behavior differences. Household wealth inequality within DHS clusters predicts HIV serostatus, and the relationship is partially mediated by more extramarital partners. These results emphasize the importance of incorporating higher-level contextual factors, investigating behavioral mediators, and disaggregating by sex in assessing HIV risk in order to uncover potential mechanisms of action and points of preventive intervention PMID:24406021

Interannual variability and predictability over the Arabian Penuinsula Winter monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adnan Abid, Muhammad; Kucharski, Fred; Almazroui, Mansour; Kang, In-Sik

2016-04-01

Interannual winter rainfall variability and its predictability are analysed over the Arabian Peninsula region by using observed and hindcast datasets from the state-of-the-art European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal prediction System 4 for the period 1981-2010. An Arabian winter monsoon index (AWMI) is defined to highlight the Arabian Peninsula as the most representative region for the Northern Hemispheric winter dominating the summer rainfall. The observations show that the rainfall variability is relatively large over the northeast of the Arabian Peninsula. The correlation coefficient between the Nino3.4 index and rainfall in this region is 0.33, suggesting potentially some modest predictability, and indicating that El Nino increases and La Nina decreases the rainfall. Regression analysis shows that upper-level cyclonic circulation anomalies that are forced by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are responsible for the winter rainfall anomalies over the Arabian region. The stronger (weaker) mean transient-eddy activity related to the upper-level trough induced by the warm (cold) sea-surface temperatures during El Nino (La Nina) tends to increase (decrease) the rainfall in the region. The model hindcast dataset reproduces the ENSO-rainfall connection. The seasonal mean predictability of the northeast Arabian rainfall index is 0.35. It is shown that the noise variance is larger than the signal over the Arabian Peninsula region, which tends to limit the prediction skill. The potential predictability is generally increased in ENSO years and is, in particular, larger during La Nina compared to El Nino years in the region. Furthermore, central Pacific ENSO events and ENSO events with weak signals in the Indian Ocean tend to increase predictability over the Arabian region.

The left inferior parietal lobe represents stored hand-postures for object use and action prediction

PubMed Central

van Elk, Michiel

2014-01-01

Action semantics enables us to plan actions with objects and to predict others' object-directed actions as well. Previous studies have suggested that action semantics are represented in a fronto-parietal action network that has also been implicated to play a role in action observation. In the present fMRI study it was investigated how activity within this network changes as a function of the predictability of an action involving multiple objects and requiring the use of action semantics. Participants performed an action prediction task in which they were required to anticipate the use of a centrally presented object that could be moved to an associated target object (e.g., hammer—nail). The availability of actor information (i.e., presenting a hand grasping the central object) and the number of possible target objects (i.e., 0, 1, or 2 target objects) were independently manipulated, resulting in different levels of predictability. It was found that making an action prediction based on actor information resulted in an increased activation in the extrastriate body area (EBA) and the fronto-parietal action observation network (AON). Predicting actions involving a target object resulted in increased activation in the bilateral IPL and frontal motor areas. Within the AON, activity in the left inferior parietal lobe (IPL) and the left premotor cortex (PMC) increased as a function of the level of action predictability. Together these findings suggest that the left IPL represents stored hand-postures that can be used for planning object-directed actions and for predicting other's actions as well. PMID:24795681

Using modelling to predict impacts of sea level rise and increased turbidity on seagrass distributions in estuarine embayments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Tom R.; Harasti, David; Smith, Stephen D. A.; Kelaher, Brendan P.

2016-11-01

Climate change induced sea level rise will affect shallow estuarine habitats, which are already under threat from multiple anthropogenic stressors. Here, we present the results of modelling to predict potential impacts of climate change associated processes on seagrass distributions. We use a novel application of relative environmental suitability (RES) modelling to examine relationships between variables of physiological importance to seagrasses (light availability, wave exposure, and current flow) and seagrass distributions within 5 estuarine embayments. Models were constructed separately for Posidonia australis and Zostera muelleri subsp. capricorni using seagrass data from Port Stephens estuary, New South Wales, Australia. Subsequent testing of models used independent datasets from four other estuarine embayments (Wallis Lake, Lake Illawarra, Merimbula Lake, and Pambula Lake) distributed along 570 km of the east Australian coast. Relative environmental suitability models provided adequate predictions for seagrass distributions within Port Stephens and the other estuarine embayments, indicating that they may have broad regional application. Under the predictions of RES models, both sea level rise and increased turbidity are predicted to cause substantial seagrass losses in deeper estuarine areas, resulting in a net shoreward movement of seagrass beds. Seagrass species distribution models developed in this study provide a valuable tool to predict future shifts in estuarine seagrass distributions, allowing identification of areas for protection, monitoring and rehabilitation.

Cell-free total and fetal DNA in first trimester maternal serum and subsequent development of preeclampsia

PubMed Central

Silver, Robert; Clifton, Rebecca G.; Myatt, Leslie; Hauth, John C.; Leveno, Kenneth J.; Reddy, Uma M.; Peaceman, Alan M.; Ramin, Susan M.; Samuels, Philip; Saade, George; Sorokin, Yoram

2017-01-01

Objective To assess the relationship between first trimester cell-free total and fetal DNA in maternal plasma and the subsequent development of preeclampsia. Study Design Nested case-control study of patients enrolled in the Combined Antioxidant and Preeclampsia Prediction Studies (CAPPS) prediction study of 175 women who did and 175 women who did not develop preeclampsia. The predictive values of cell-free total and fetal DNA and the subsequent development of preeclampsia were measured using ROC curves. Results Cell-free total DNA was higher in African American (median; 25 – 75%; 6.15; 0.14 – 28.73; p = 0.02) and Hispanic (4.95; 0.20 – 26.82; p = 0.037) compared to white women (2.33; 0.03 – 13.10). Levels of cell-free total DNA was also associated with maternal BMI (p = 0.02). Cell-free total DNA levels were similar between women who later developed preeclampsia (3.52; 0.11 – 25.3) and controls (3.74; 0.12 – 21.14, p=0.96). Conclusions There is no significant difference in levels of cell-free total DNA in the first trimester in women who subsequently develop preeclampsia. Levels of cell-free total DNA in the first trimester are increased in African American and Hispanic compared to white women, and levels increase with increasing BMI. PMID:27398706

The Legacy of Early Insecurity Histories in Shaping Adolescent Adaptation to Interparental Conflict

PubMed Central

Davies, Patrick T.; Sturge-Apple, Melissa L.; Bascoe, Sonnette M.; Cummings, E. Mark

2013-01-01

This study tested whether the mediational pathway involving interparental conflict, adolescent emotional insecurity, and their psychological problems was altered by their earlier childhood histories of insecurity. Participants included 230 families, with the first of the five measurement occasions occurring when children were in first grade (Mean age = 7 years). Results indicated that interparental conflict was associated with increases in adolescent emotional insecurity which, in turn, predicted subsequent increases in their psychological problems. Childhood insecurity predicted adolescent maladjustment five years later even after considering contemporaneous family experiences. Moderator findings revealed that adolescents with relatively higher levels of insecurity in childhood evidenced disproportionately greater and reduced levels of insecurity in the context of high and low levels of interparental conflict, respectively. PMID:23647368

Interacting effects of ozone and CO2 on growth and physiological processes in northern forest trees

Treesearch

J. G. Isebrands; D. F. Karnosky

1996-01-01

Globally, surface-level concentrations of both CO2 and ozone (O3) are increasing annually. Because many studies have shown beneficial effects of increasing CO2, predictions have been made that elevated levels of CO2 would compensate for growth decreases caused by O3...

Serum vaspin level as a predictive indicator in the amelioration of fatty liver and metabolic disturbance in patients with severe obesity after laparoscopic vertical banded gastroplasty.

PubMed

Wang, Yong; Yu, Zong-Fan; Cheng, Yun-Sheng; Jia, Ben-Li; Yu, Gang; Yin, Xiao-Qiang; Wang, Yang

2017-07-01

This study is all about predicting the value of serum vaspin level in the amelioration of fatty liver and metabolic disturbance in patients with severe obesity after laparoscopic vertical banded gastroplasty (LVBG). A total of 164 patients (from January 2012 to May 2015) with severe obesity were chosen and performed LVBG. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was performed to detect the serum vaspin level. The patients were given a biochemical automatic analyzer to measure the biochemical indicators. Homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) helps in the calculation of fasting insulin level (FINS) and insulin resistance (IR). The changes in fatty liver were examined by computed tomography (CT). Receiver operating characteristic curve is used to increase the predictive value of serum vaspin level in the amelioration of liver function and disturbances in the metabolism. Weight, BMI, waist circumference, serum vaspin level, and triglyceride (TG) decreased, but CT value of liver increased at 4th, 7th, and 12th month after surgery. After the 7th and 12th month period of surgery, the alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, FINS, and HOMA-IR reduced in the patients (P <.005). The area under ROC curve (AUC) is about 0.871 ± 0.031 with 95%CI of 0.810-0.931 (P <.001). The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of serum vaspin level ≤0.9 were 87.80%, 78.05%, and 83.28%, respectively. BMI, FINS, and serum vaspin level ≤0.9 were the influencing factors of the amelioration of fatty liver and metabolic disturbance. This study proves that the serum vaspin level serves as a predictive indicator in the amelioration of fatty liver and metabolic disturbance in patients with severe obesity after LVBG.

Individual variation in baseline and stress-induced corticosterone and prolactin levels predicts parental effort by nesting mourning doves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.; Vleck, Carol M.; Otis, David L.

2009-01-01

Endocrine systems have an important mechanistic role in structuring life-history trade-offs. During breeding, individual variation in prolactin (PRL) and corticosterone (CORT) levels affects behavioral and physiological processes that drive trade-offs between reproduction and self-maintenance. We examined patterns in baseline (BL) and stress induced (SI; level following a standard capture-restraint protocol) levels of PRL and CORT for breeding mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). We determined whether the relationship of adult condition and parental effort to hormone levels in wild birds was consistent with life-history predictions. Both BL PRL and BL CORT level in adults were positively related to nestling weight at early nestling ages, consistent with the prediction of a positive relationship of hormone levels to current parental effort of adults and associated increased energy demand. Results are consistent with the two hormones acting together at baseline levels to limit negative effects of CORT on reproduction while maintaining beneficial effects such as increased foraging for nestling feeding. Our data did not support predictions that SI responses would vary in response to nestling or adult condition. The magnitude of CORT response in the parents to our capture-restraint protocol was negatively correlated with subsequent parental effort. Average nestling weights for adults with the highest SI CORT response were on average 10–15% lighter than expected for their age in follow-up visits after the stress event. Our results demonstrated a relationship between individual hormone levels and within population variation in parental effort and suggested that hormonal control plays an important role in structuring reproductive decisions for mourning doves.

Individual variation in baseline and stress-induced corticosterone and prolactin levels predicts parental effort by nesting mourning doves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.; Vleck, Carol M.; Otis, David L.

2009-01-01

Endocrine systems have an important mechanistic role in structuring life-history trade-offs. During breeding, individual variation in prolactin (PRL) and corticosterone (CORT) levels affects behavioral and physiological processes that drive trade-offs between reproduction and self-maintenance. We examined patterns in baseline (BL) and stress induced (SI; level following a standard capture-restraint protocol) levels of PRL and CORT for breeding mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). We determined whether the relationship of adult condition and parental effort to hormone levels in wild birds was consistent with life-history predictions. Both BL PRL and BL CORT level in adults were positively related to nestling weight at early nestling ages, consistent with the prediction of a positive relationship of hormone levels to current parental effort of adults and associated increased energy demand. Results are consistent with the two hormones acting together at baseline levels to limit negative effects of CORT on reproduction while maintaining beneficial effects such as increased foraging for nestling feeding. Our data did not support predictions that SI responses would vary in response to nestling or adult condition. The magnitude of CORT response in the parents to our capture-restraint protocol was negatively correlated with subsequent parental effort. Average nestling weights for adults with the highest SI CORT response were on average 10–15% lighter than expected for their age in follow-up visits after the stress event. Our results demonstrated a relationship between individual hormone levels and within population variation in parental effort and suggested that hormonal control plays an important role in structuring reproductive decisions for mourning doves.

HbA1c Predicts Time to Diagnosis of Type 1 Diabetes in Children at Risk.

PubMed

Helminen, Olli; Aspholm, Susanna; Pokka, Tytti; Hautakangas, Milla-Riikka; Haatanen, Nora; Lempainen, Johanna; Ilonen, Jorma; Simell, Olli; Knip, Mikael; Veijola, Riitta

2015-05-01

Prediction of type 1 diabetes is based on the detection of multiple islet autoantibodies in subjects who are at increased genetic risk. Prediction of the timing of diagnosis is challenging, however. We assessed the utility of HbA1c levels in predicting the clinical disease in genetically predisposed children with multiple autoantibodies. Cord blood samples from 168,055 newborn infants were screened for class II HLA genotypes in Finland, and 14,876 children with increased genetic risk for type 1 diabetes were invited to participate in regular follow-ups, including screening for diabetes-associated autoantibodies. When two or more autoantibodies were detected, HbA1c levels were analyzed at each visit. During follow-up, multiple (two or more) autoantibodies developed in 466 children; type 1 diabetes was diagnosed in 201 of these children (43%, progressors), while 265 children remained disease free (nonprogressors) by December 2011. A 10% increase in HbA1c levels in samples obtained 3-12 months apart predicted the diagnosis of clinical disease (hazard ratio [HR] 5.7 [95% CI 4.1-7.9]) after a median time of 1.1 years (interquartile range [IQR] 0.6-3.1 years) from the observed rise of HbA1c. If the HbA1c level was ≥5.9% (41 mmol/mol) in two consecutive samples, the median time to diagnosis was 0.9 years (IQR 0.3-1.5, HR 11.9 [95% CI 8.8-16.0]). In conclusion, HbA1c is a useful biochemical marker when predicting the time to diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in children with multiple autoantibodies. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

Mood and the market: can press reports of investors' mood predict stock prices?

PubMed

Cohen-Charash, Yochi; Scherbaum, Charles A; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D; Staw, Barry M

2013-01-01

We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices.

Mood and the Market: Can Press Reports of Investors' Mood Predict Stock Prices?

PubMed Central

Scherbaum, Charles A.; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D.

2013-01-01

We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices. PMID:24015202

Vitamin D, Race, and Experimental Pain Sensitivity in Older Adults with Knee Osteoarthritis

PubMed Central

Glover, T.L.; Goodin, B.R.; Horgas, A.L.; Kindler, L.L.; King, C.D.; Sibille, K.T.; Peloquin, C.A.; Riley, J.L.; Staud, R.; Bradley, L.A.; Fillingim, R.B.

2012-01-01

Objective Low levels of serum circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D have been correlated with many health conditions, including chronic pain. Recent clinical practice guidelines define vitamin D levels < 20 ng/mL as deficient and values of 21–29 ng/mL as insufficient. Vitamin D insufficiency, including the most severe levels of deficiency, is more prevalent in black Americans. Ethnic and race group differences have been reported in both clinical and experimental pain, with black Americans reporting increased pain. The purpose of this study was to examine whether variation in vitamin D levels contribute to race differences in knee osteoarthritic pain. Methods The sample consisted of 94 participants (75% female), including 45 blacks and 49 whites with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis. Average age was 55.8 years (range 45–71 years). Participants completed a questionnaire on knee osteoarthritic symptoms and underwent quantitative sensory testing, including measures of heat and mechanical pain sensitivity. Results Blacks had significantly lower levels of vitamin D compared to whites, demonstrated greater clinical pain, and showed greater sensitivity to mechanical and heat pain. Low levels of vitamin D predicted increased experimental pain sensitivity, but did not predict self-reported clinical pain. Group differences in vitamin D significantly predicted group differences in heat pain and pressure pain thresholds on the index knee and ipsilateral forearm. Conclusion These data demonstrate race differences in experimental pain are mediated by differences in vitamin D level. Vitamin D deficiency may be a risk factor for increased knee osteoarthritic pain in black Americans. PMID:23135697

Serial hCG and progesterone levels to predict early pregnancy outcomes in pregnancies of uncertain viability: A prospective study.

PubMed

Puget, Claire; Joueidi, Yolaine; Bauville, Estelle; Laviolle, Bruno; Bendavid, Claude; Lavoué, Vincent; Le Lous, Maela

2018-01-01

To assess the value of serial hCG and progesterone serum level in the diagnosis of early pregnancy viability. It was a prospective cohort study. Women with a pregnancy of uncertain viability (PUV), defined as the presence of an intra-uterine embryo with a crown-rump length <7mm with no cardiac activity or an intra-uterine gestational sac size <25mm with no visible embryonic structure in a transvaginal ultrasound scan (TVS) were eligible. The diagnosis value of serial plasmatic hCG levels on the first day and 48h after as well as the initial progesterone level were evaluated to diagnose pregnancy viability. Pregnancy viability was assessed by TVS 7 to 14days after inclusion. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of an hCG H48/H0 ratio increase <11% to diagnose an early pregnancy loss were 70.6%, 100%, 100% and 85.3%, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of a 6.2ng/ml progesterone level to diagnose an early pregnancy loss were 20%, 100%, 100% and 65.2%, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of an hCG H48/H0 ratio increase >75% to diagnose a viable pregnancy were 100%, 31%, 45.9% and 100%, respectively. hCG H48/H0 ratio increase <11% was associated with early pregnancy loss in 100% of the cases. hCG H48/H0 ratio increase >75% was associated with 100% of viable pregnancies in 100% of the cases. Serial hCG levels alone permitted an early viability diagnosis within 48h for 41.1% of patients with PUV instead of 7 to 14days with TVS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using Growth Rate of Reading Fluency to Predict Performance on Statewide Achievement Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hinkle, Rachelle Whittaker

2011-01-01

Federal legislation has prescribed the increased use of statewide achievement tests as the culmination of a student's knowledge and ability at the end of a grade level; however, schools need to be able to predict those who are at-risk of performing poorly on these high-stakes tests. Three studies served to identify a means of predicting statewide…

Usefulness of Serum Triiodothyronine (T3) to Predict Outcomes in Patients Hospitalized With Acute Heart Failure.

PubMed

Rothberger, Gary D; Gadhvi, Sonya; Michelakis, Nickolaos; Kumar, Amit; Calixte, Rose; Shapiro, Lawrence E

2017-02-15

Thyroid hormone plays an important role in cardiac function. Low levels of serum triiodothyronine (T 3 ) due to nonthyroidal illness syndrome may have adverse effects in heart failure (HF). This study was designed to assess the ability of T 3 to predict in-hospital outcomes in patients with acute HF. In total, 137 patients without thyroid disease or treatment with drugs which affect TH levels, who were hospitalized with acute HF were prospectively enrolled and studied. TH levels were tested upon hospital admission, and outcomes were compared between patients with low (<2.3 pg/ml) and normal (≥2.3 pg/ml) free T 3 levels as well as between those with low (<0.6 ng/ml) and normal (≥0.6 ng/ml) total T 3 levels. Low free T 3 correlated with an increased length of stay in the hospital (median 11 vs 7 days, p <0.001) and higher rates of intensive care unit admission (31.8% vs 16.9%, p = 0.047), with a trend toward increased need for invasive mechanical ventilation (9.0% vs 1.4%, p = 0.056). Low total T3 correlated with an increased length of stay in the hospital (median 11 vs 7 days, p <0.001) and increased need for invasive mechanical ventilation (9.8% vs 1.3%, p = 0.045). In conclusion, low T 3 predicts worse hospital outcomes in patients with acute HF and can be useful in the risk stratification of these patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Usefulness of admission gamma-glutamyltransferase level for predicting new-onset heart failure in patients with acute coronary syndrome with left ventricular systolic dysfunction.

PubMed

Sarıkaya, Savaş; Aydın, Gülay; Yücel, Hasan; Kaya, Hakkı; Yıldırımlı, Kutay; Başaran, Ahmet; Zorlu, Ali; Sahin, Safak; Akyol, Lütfü; Bulut, Musa

2014-04-01

Our aim was to determine whether there is a relationship between admission gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and subsequent heart failure hospitalizations in patients with acute coronary syndrome. We selected 123 patients with newly diagnosed acute coronary syndrome of ejection fraction (EF) <45%. Patients were followed 15±10 months, and the relationship between admission GGT level and hospitalization because of heart failure during the follow-up was examined. Twenty-three (18.7%) patients were hospitalized during the follow-up of 15±10 months. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that the cut-off point of admission GGT related to predict hospitalization was 49 IU/L, with a sensitivity of 81.7% and specificity of 65.2%. Increased GGT >49 IU/L on admission, presence of hypertension and hyperlipidemia, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), right ventricular dysfunction, moderate-to-severe mitral regurgitation, alanine aminotransferase level, and antiplatelet agent usage were found to have prognostic significance in univariate Cox proportional hazards analysis. In multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model, increased GGT >49 IU/L on admission (hazard ratio [HR] 2.663, p=0.047), presence of hypertension (HR 4.107, p=0.007), and LVEF (HR 0.911, p=0.002) were found to be independent factors to predict new-onset heart failure requiring hospitalization. Hospitalization in heart failure was associated with increased admission GGT levels. Increased admission GGT level in acute coronary syndrome with heart failure should be monitored closely and treated aggressively.

Chymase Level Is a Predictive Biomarker of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Pediatric and Adult Patients.

PubMed

Tissera, Hasitha; Rathore, Abhay P S; Leong, Wei Yee; Pike, Brian L; Warkentien, Tyler E; Farouk, Farouk S; Syenina, Ayesa; Eong Ooi, Eng; Gubler, Duane J; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; St John, Ashley L

2017-11-27

Most patients with dengue experience mild disease, dengue fever (DF), while few develop the life-threatening diseases dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or dengue shock syndrome (DSS). No laboratory tests predict DHF or DSS. We evaluated whether the serum chymase level can predict DHF or DSS in adult and pediatric patients and the influence of preexisting conditions (PECs) on chymase levels. Serum chymase levels were measured in patients presenting with undifferentiated fever to hospitals in Colombo District, Sri Lanka. The value of serum the chymase concentration and clinical signs and symptoms as predictors of DHF and/or DSS was evaluated by multivariate analysis. We assessed the influence of age, PECs, and day after fever onset on the robustness of the chymase level as a biomarker for DHF and/or DSS. An elevated chymase level in acute phase blood samples was highly indicative of later diagnosis of DHF or DSS for pediatric and adult patients with dengue. No recorded PECs prevented an increase in the chymase level during DHF. However, certain PECs (obesity and cardiac or lung-associated diseases) resulted in a concomitant increase in chymase levels among adult patients with DHF. These results show that patients with acute dengue who present with high levels of serum chymase consistently are at greater risk of DHF. The chymase level is a robust prognostic biomarker of severe dengue for adult and pediatric patients. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Bronchodilator Response in FVC Is Larger and More Relevant Than in FEV1 in Severe Airflow Obstruction.

PubMed

Quanjer, Philip H; Ruppel, Gregg L; Langhammer, Arnulf; Krishna, Abhishek; Mertens, Frans; Johannessen, Ane; Menezes, Ana M B; Wehrmeister, Fernando C; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Swanney, Maureen P; Tan, Wan C; Bourbeau, Jean

2017-05-01

Recommendations on interpreting tests of bronchodilator responsiveness (BDR) are conflicting. We investigated the dependence of BDR criteria on sex, age, height, ethnicity, and severity of respiratory impairment. BDR test data were available from clinical patients in the Netherlands, New Zealand, and the United States (n = 15,278; female subjects, 51.7%) and from surveys in Canada, Norway, and five Latin-American countries (n = 16,250; female subjects, 54.7%). BDR calculated according to FEV 1 , FVC, and FEV 1 /FVC was expressed as absolute change, a percentage of the baseline level (% baseline), a percentage of the predicted value (% predicted), and z score. Change (Δ) in FEV 1 and FVC, in milliliters, was unrelated to the baseline value but was biased toward age, height, sex, and level of airways obstruction; ΔFEV 1 was significantly lower in African Americans. In 1,106 subjects with low FEV 1 (200-1,621 mL) the FEV 1 increased by 12% to 44.7% relative to baseline but < 200 mL. Expressing BDR as a percentage of the predicted value or as a z score attenuated the bias and made the 200-mL criterion redundant, but reduced positive responses by half. ΔFEV 1 % baseline increased with the level of airflow obstruction but decreased with severe obstruction when expressed as z scores or % predicted; ΔFVC, however expressed, increased with the level of airflow obstruction. Expressing FEV 1 responsiveness as % baseline spuriously suggests that responsiveness increases with the severity of respiratory impairment. Expressing change in FEV 1 or FVC as % predicted or as z scores eliminates this artifact and renders the required 200-mL minimum increase redundant. In severe airways obstruction ΔFVC should be critically evaluated as an index of clinically important relief of hyperinflation, with implications for bronchodilator drug trials. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modifications to the NASA SP-8072 Distributed Source Method II for Ares I Lift-off Environment Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haynes, Jared; Kenny, Jeremy

2009-01-01

Lift-off acoustic environments for NASA's Ares I - Crew Launch Vehicle are predicted using the second source distribution methodology described in the NASA SP-8072. Three modifications made to the model include a shorter core length approximation, a core termination procedure upon plume deflection, and a new set of directivity indices measured from static test firings of the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). The modified sound pressure level predictions increased more than 5 dB overall, and the peak levels shifted two third-octave bands higher in frequency.

Impact of climate change on mercury concentrations and deposition in the eastern United States.

PubMed

Megaritis, Athanasios G; Murphy, Benjamin N; Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J; Pandis, Spyros N

2014-07-15

The global-regional climate-air pollution modeling system (GRE-CAPS) was applied over the eastern United States to study the impact of climate change on the concentration and deposition of atmospheric mercury. Summer and winter periods (300 days for each) were simulated, and the present-day model predictions (2000s) were compared to the future ones (2050s) assuming constant emissions. Climate change affects Hg(2+) concentrations in both periods. On average, atmospheric Hg(2+) levels are predicted to increase in the future by 3% in summer and 5% in winter respectively due to enhanced oxidation of Hg(0) under higher temperatures. The predicted concentration change of Hg(2+) was found to vary significantly in space due to regional-scale changes in precipitation, ranging from -30% to 30% during summer and -20% to 40% during winter. Particulate mercury, Hg(p) has a similar spatial response to climate change as Hg(2+), while Hg(0) levels are not predicted to change significantly. In both periods, the response of mercury deposition to climate change varies spatially with an average predicted increase of 6% during summer and 4% during winter. During summer, deposition increases are predicted mostly in the western parts of the domain while mercury deposition is predicted to decrease in the Northeast and also in many areas in the Midwest and Southeast. During winter mercury deposition is predicted to change from -30% to 50% mainly due to the changes in rainfall and the corresponding changes in wet deposition. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pretreatment data is highly predictive of liver chemistry signals in clinical trials

PubMed Central

Cai, Zhaohui; Bresell, Anders; Steinberg, Mark H; Silberg, Debra G; Furlong, Stephen T

2012-01-01

Purpose The goal of this retrospective analysis was to assess how well predictive models could determine which patients would develop liver chemistry signals during clinical trials based on their pretreatment (baseline) information. Patients and methods Based on data from 24 late-stage clinical trials, classification models were developed to predict liver chemistry outcomes using baseline information, which included demographics, medical history, concomitant medications, and baseline laboratory results. Results Predictive models using baseline data predicted which patients would develop liver signals during the trials with average validation accuracy around 80%. Baseline levels of individual liver chemistry tests were most important for predicting their own elevations during the trials. High bilirubin levels at baseline were not uncommon and were associated with a high risk of developing biochemical Hy’s law cases. Baseline γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) level appeared to have some predictive value, but did not increase predictability beyond using established liver chemistry tests. Conclusion It is possible to predict which patients are at a higher risk of developing liver chemistry signals using pretreatment (baseline) data. Derived knowledge from such predictions may allow proactive and targeted risk management, and the type of analysis described here could help determine whether new biomarkers offer improved performance over established ones. PMID:23226004

The Linear Predictability of Sea Level: A Benchmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonnewald, M.; Wunsch, C.; Heimbach, P.

2016-12-01

A benchmark of linear predictive skill of global sea level is presented, complimenting more complicated model studies of future predictive skill. Sea level is of great socioeconomic interest, as most of the worlds population live by the sea. Currently, the spread in model projections suggests poor predictive skill outside the seasonal cycle. We use 20 years of data from the ECCOv4 state estimate (1992-2012), assessing the variance attributable to the seasons and the linear predictability potential of the deseasoned component of sea level. The Northern Hemisphere has large regions where the seasons make up >90% of the variance, particularly in the western boundary current regions and zonal bands along the equator. The deaseasoned sea level is more dominant in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in the Southern Ocean. We treat the deseasoned sea level as a weakly stationary random process, whose predictability is given by the covariance structure. Fitting an ARMA(n,m) model, we choose the order using the Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC and BIC). The AIC is more appropriate, with generally higher orders chosen and offering slightly more predictive accuracy. Monthly detrended data shows skill generally of the order of a few months, with isolated regions of twelve months or more. With the trend, the predictive skill increases, particularly in the South Pacific. We assess the annually averaged data, although our time-series is too short to assess the variability. There is some predictive skill, which is enhanced if the trend is not removed. A major caveat of our approach is that we test and train our model on the same dataset due to the short duration of available data.

The Prospective Links Between Hyperactive/Impulsive, Inattentive, and Oppositional-Defiant Behaviors in Childhood and Antisocial Behavior in Adolescence: The Moderating Influence of Gender and the Parent-Child Relationship Quality.

PubMed

Giannotta, Fabrizia; Rydell, Ann-Margret

2016-12-01

We prospectively investigated the effect of child hyperactive/impulsive, inattentive, and oppositional/defiant behaviors on the development of youth antisocial behaviors, and the moderating influence of gender and the parent-child relationship quality in a normative sample. Participants (N = 673, 50 % girls) were assessed at 10 years of age (parent reports) and at age 15 (parent and adolescent reports). Using latent change models, we found that initial levels of, as well as increases in, hyperactivity/impulsivity and oppositional behaviors and initial levels of inattention behaviors predicted youth antisocial behaviors. The increase in oppositional behaviors was predictive of youth antisocial behaviors in girls only. Child hyperactive/impulsive behaviors predicted youth antisocial behaviors only in children for whom the quality of the parent-child relationship deteriorated from childhood to adolescence. Thus, both initial levels of and increases in disruptive behaviors as well as gender are important for understanding the development of antisocial behaviors in adolescence. We received partial support for the hypothesized, moderating role of a high-quality parent-child relationship.

Exploring the predicted effect of social networking site use on perceived social capital and psychological well-being of Chinese international students in Japan.

PubMed

Guo, Yu; Li, Yiwei; Ito, Naoya

2014-01-01

This study investigated how social networking sites (SNSs) use by Chinese international students in Japan influenced their perceived social capital and psychological well-being. In addition, it examined how, as sojourners, Chinese international students' perceived acculturative stress varied. Data were collected from 142 Chinese international students. The results indicated that the intensity of SNS use was unable to predict individuals' perceived social capital and psychological well-being. The effect of SNS use varied according to the functions it serves. Specifically, SNS use for social and informational functions (SIF) increased individuals' levels of perceived bridging social capital and perceived life satisfaction, while SNS use for entertaining recreational functions (ERF) was unable to predict perceived social capital but increased individuals' levels of loneliness. It was also found that, in the intercultural environment, Chinese international students' levels of perceived acculturative stress were decreased by their perceived bonding social capital and increased by their perceived loneliness but had no relationship with their SNS use. Findings of the study suggest that individuals using SNSs to stay informed and connected will benefit with regard to their social network building and psychological well-being.

Genomic variants in the ASS1 gene, involved in the nitric oxide biosynthesis and signaling pathway, predict hydroxyurea treatment efficacy in compound sickle cell disease/β-thalassemia patients.

PubMed

Chalikiopoulou, Constantina; Tavianatou, Anastasia-Gerasimoula; Sgourou, Argyro; Kourakli, Alexandra; Kelepouri, Dimitra; Chrysanthakopoulou, Maria; Kanelaki, Vasiliki-Kaliopi; Mourdoukoutas, Evangelos; Siamoglou, Stavroula; John, Anne; Symeonidis, Argyris; Ali, Bassam R; Katsila, Theodora; Papachatzopoulou, Adamantia; Patrinos, George P

2016-03-01

Hemoglobinopathies exhibit a remarkable phenotypic diversity that restricts any safe association between molecular pathology and clinical outcomes. Herein, we explored the role of genes involved in the nitric oxide biosynthesis and signaling pathway, implicated in the increase of fetal hemoglobin levels and response to hydroxyurea treatment, in 119 Hellenic patients with β-type hemoglobinopathies. We show that two ASS1 genomic variants (namely, rs10901080 and rs10793902) can serve as pharmacogenomic biomarkers to predict hydroxyurea treatment efficacy in sickle cell disease/β-thalassemia compound heterozygous patients. These markers may exert their effect by inducing nitric oxide biosynthesis, either via altering splicing and/or miRNA binding, as predicted by in silico analysis, and ultimately, increase γ-globin levels, via guanylyl cyclase targeting.

The Effects of Pathological Gaming on Aggressive Behavior

PubMed Central

Valkenburg, Patti M.; Peter, Jochen

2010-01-01

Studies have shown that pathological involvement with computer or video games is related to excessive gaming binges and aggressive behavior. Our aims for this study were to longitudinally examine if pathological gaming leads to increasingly excessive gaming habits, and how pathological gaming may cause an increase in physical aggression. For this purpose, we conducted a two-wave panel study among 851 Dutch adolescents (49% female) of which 540 played games (30% female). Our analyses indicated that higher levels of pathological gaming predicted an increase in time spent playing games 6 months later. Time spent playing violent games specifically, and not just games per se, increased physical aggression. Furthermore, higher levels of pathological gaming, regardless of violent content, predicted an increase in physical aggression among boys. That this effect only applies to boys does not diminish its importance, because adolescent boys are generally the heaviest players of violent games and most susceptible to pathological involvement. PMID:20549320

The effects of pathological gaming on aggressive behavior.

PubMed

Lemmens, Jeroen S; Valkenburg, Patti M; Peter, Jochen

2011-01-01

Studies have shown that pathological involvement with computer or video games is related to excessive gaming binges and aggressive behavior. Our aims for this study were to longitudinally examine if pathological gaming leads to increasingly excessive gaming habits, and how pathological gaming may cause an increase in physical aggression. For this purpose, we conducted a two-wave panel study among 851 Dutch adolescents (49% female) of which 540 played games (30% female). Our analyses indicated that higher levels of pathological gaming predicted an increase in time spent playing games 6 months later. Time spent playing violent games specifically, and not just games per se, increased physical aggression. Furthermore, higher levels of pathological gaming, regardless of violent content, predicted an increase in physical aggression among boys. That this effect only applies to boys does not diminish its importance, because adolescent boys are generally the heaviest players of violent games and most susceptible to pathological involvement.

Does anxiety sensitivity predict symptoms of panic, depression, and social anxiety?

PubMed

Grant, DeMond M; Beck, J Gayle; Davila, Joanne

2007-09-01

This study examined whether the lower-order factors of the Anxiety Sensitivity Index (ASI) exhibited specificity in predicting symptoms of panic, depression, and social anxiety prospectively. This question was addressed using a sample of undergraduates stratified to represent low, medium, and high levels of anxiety sensitivity (AS). It was hypothesized that the physical concerns, mental concerns, and social concerns subscales of the ASI would predict increases in panic, depression, and social anxiety symptoms, respectively, one year later. Results found that the physical concerns subscale predicted increases in both panic and depressive symptoms. Neither the mental concerns nor the social concerns subscales predicted significant variance in any of the Time 2 symptoms. Theoretical implications of these data for AS are discussed.

Preliminary Empirical Models for Predicting Shrinkage, Part Geometry and Metallurgical Aspects of Ti-6Al-4V Shaped Metal Deposition Builds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escobar-Palafox, Gustavo; Gault, Rosemary; Ridgway, Keith

2011-12-01

Shaped Metal Deposition (SMD) is an additive manufacturing process which creates parts layer by layer by weld depositions. In this work, empirical models that predict part geometry (wall thickness and outer diameter) and some metallurgical aspects (i.e. surface texture, portion of finer Widmanstätten microstructure) for the SMD process were developed. The models are based on an orthogonal fractional factorial design of experiments with four factors at two levels. The factors considered were energy level (a relationship between heat source power and the rate of raw material input.), step size, programmed diameter and travel speed. The models were validated using previous builds; the prediction error for part geometry was under 11%. Several relationships between the factors and responses were identified. Current had a significant effect on wall thickness; thickness increases with increasing current. Programmed diameter had a significant effect on percentage of shrinkage; this decreased with increasing component size. Surface finish decreased with decreasing step size and current.

Fasting Lipoprotein Lipase Protein Levels Can Predict a Postmeal Increment of Triglyceride Levels in Fasting Normohypertriglyceridemic Subjects.

PubMed

Tsuzaki, Kokoro; Kotani, Kazuhiko; Yamada, Kazunori; Sakane, Naoki

2016-09-01

Although a postprandial increment in triglyceride (TG) levels is considered to be a risk factor for atherogenesis, tests (e.g., fat load) to assess postprandial changes in TG levels cannot be easily applied to clinical practice. Therefore, fasting markers that predict postprandial TG states are needed to be developed. One current candidate is lipoprotein lipase (LPL) protein, a molecule that hydrides TGs. This study investigated whether fasting LPL levels could predict postprandial TG levels. A total of 17 subjects (11 men, 6 women, mean age 52 ± 11 years) with normotriglyceridemia during fasting underwent the meal test. Several fasting parameters, including LPL, were measured for the area under the curve of postprandial TGs (AUC-TG). The subjects' mean fasting TG level was 1.30 mmol/l, and their mean LPL level was 41.6 ng/ml. The subjects' TG levels increased after loading (they peaked after two postprandial hours). Stepwise multiple regression analysis demonstrated that fasting TG levels were a predictor of the AUC-TG. In addition, fasting LPL mass levels were found to be a predictor of the AUC-TG (β = 0.65, P < 0.01), and this relationship was independent of fasting TG levels. Fasting LPL levels may be useful to predict postprandial TG increment in this population. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modeling vegetation community responses to sea-level rise on Barrier Island systems: A case study on the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex, Florida, USA

PubMed Central

Foster, Tammy E.; Stolen, Eric D.; Hall, Carlton R.; Schaub, Ronald; Duncan, Brean W.; Hunt, Danny K.; Drese, John H.

2017-01-01

Society needs information about how vegetation communities in coastal regions will be impacted by hydrologic changes associated with climate change, particularly sea level rise. Due to anthropogenic influences which have significantly decreased natural coastal vegetation communities, it is important for us to understand how remaining natural communities will respond to sea level rise. The Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex (CCBIC) on the east central coast of Florida is within one of the most biologically diverse estuarine systems in North America and has the largest number of threatened and endangered species on federal property in the contiguous United States. The high level of biodiversity is susceptible to sea level rise. Our objective was to model how vegetation communities along a gradient ranging from hydric to upland xeric on CCBIC will respond to three sea level rise scenarios (0.2 m, 0.4 m, and 1.2 m). We used a probabilistic model of the current relationship between elevation and vegetation community to determine the impact sea level rise would have on these communities. Our model correctly predicted the current proportions of vegetation communities on CCBIC based on elevation. Under all sea level rise scenarios the model predicted decreases in mesic and xeric communities, with the greatest losses occurring in the most xeric communities. Increases in total area of salt marsh were predicted with a 0.2 and 0.4 m rise in sea level. With a 1.2 m rise in sea level approximately half of CCBIC’s land area was predicted to transition to open water. On the remaining land, the proportions of most of the vegetation communities were predicted to remain similar to that of current proportions, but there was a decrease in proportion of the most xeric community (oak scrub) and an increase in the most hydric community (salt marsh). Our approach provides a first approximation of the impacts of sea level rise on terrestrial vegetation communities, including important xeric upland communities, as a foundation for management decisions and future modeling. PMID:28796807

Quantifying the increase in average human heterozygosity due to urbanisation.

PubMed

Rudan, Igor; Carothers, Andrew D; Polasek, Ozren; Hayward, Caroline; Vitart, Veronique; Biloglav, Zrinka; Kolcic, Ivana; Zgaga, Lina; Ivankovic, Davor; Vorko-Jovic, Ariana; Wilson, James F; Weber, James L; Hastie, Nick; Wright, Alan; Campbell, Harry

2008-09-01

The human population is undergoing a major transition from a historical metapopulation structure of relatively isolated small communities to an outbred structure. This process is predicted to increase average individual genome-wide heterozygosity (h) and could have effects on health. We attempted to quantify this increase in mean h. We initially sampled 1001 examinees from a metapopulation of nine isolated villages on five Dalmatian islands (Croatia). Village populations had high levels of genetic differentiation, endogamy and consanguinity. We then selected 166 individuals with highly specific personal genetic histories to form six subsamples, which could be ranked a priori by their predicted level of outbreeding. The measure h was then estimated in the 166 examinees by genotyping 1184 STR/indel markers and using two different computation methods. Compared to the value of mean h in the least outbred sample, values of h in the remaining samples increased successively with predicted outbreeding by 0.023, 0.038, 0.058, 0.067 and 0.079 (P<0.0001), where these values are measured on the same scale as the inbreeding coefficient (but opposite sign). We have shown that urbanisation was associated with an average increase in h of up to 0.08-0.10 in this Croatian metapopulation, regardless of the method used. Similar levels of differentiation have been described in many populations. Therefore, changes in the level of heterozygosity across the genome of this magnitude may be common during isolate break-up in humans and could have significant health effects through the established genetic mechanism of hybrid vigour/heterosis.

Defining a glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) level that predicts increased risk of penile implant infection.

PubMed

Habous, Mohamad; Tal, Raanan; Tealab, Alaa; Soliman, Tarek; Nassar, Mohammed; Mekawi, Zenhom; Mahmoud, Saad; Abdelwahab, Osama; Elkhouly, Mohamed; Kamr, Hatem; Remeah, Abdallah; Binsaleh, Saleh; Ralph, David; Mulhall, John

2018-02-01

To re-evaluate the role of diabetes mellitus (DM) as a risk factor for penile implant infection by exploring the association between glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels and penile implant infection rates and to define a threshold value that predicts implant infection. We conducted a multicentre prospective study including all patients undergoing penile implant surgery between 2009 and 2015. Preoperative, perioperative and postoperative management were identical for the entire cohort. Univariate analysis was performed to define predictors of implant infection. The HbA1c levels were analysed as continuous variables and sequential analysis was conducted using 0.5% increments to define a threshold level predicting implant infection. Multivariable analysis was performed with the following factors entered in the model: DM, HbA1C level, patient age, implant type, number of vascular risk factors (VRFs), presence of Peyronie's disease (PD), body mass index (BMI), and surgeon volume. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was generated to define the optimal HbA1C threshold for infection prediction. In all, 902 implant procedures were performed over the study period. The mean patient age was 56.6 years. The mean HbA1c level was 8.0%, with 81% of men having a HbA1c level of >6%. In all, 685 (76%) implants were malleable and 217 (24%) were inflatable devices; 302 (33.5%) patients also had a diagnosis of PD. The overall infection rate was 8.9% (80/902). Patients who had implant infection had significantly higher mean HbA1c levels, 9.5% vs 7.8% (P < 0.001). Grouping the cases by HbA1c level, we found infection rates were: 1.3% with HbA1c level of <6.5%, 1.5% for 6.5-7.5%, 6.5% for 7.6-8.5%, 14.7% for 8.6-9.5%, 22.4% for >9.5% (P < 0.001). Patient age, implant type, and number of VRFs were not predictive. Predictors defined on multivariable analysis were: PD, high BMI, and high HbA1c level, whilst a high-volume surgeon had a protective effect and was associated with a reduced infection risk. Using ROC analysis, we determined that a HbA1c threshold level of 8.5% predicted infection with a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 65%. Uncontrolled DM is associated with increased risk of infection after penile implant surgery. The risk is directly related to the HbA1c level. A threshold HbA1c level of 8.5% is suggested for clinical use to identify patients at increased infection risk. © 2017 The Authors BJU International © 2017 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dialysate interleukin-6 predicts increasing peritoneal solute transport rate in incident peritoneal dialysis patients

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Repeated exposure to peritoneal dialysis (PD) solutions contributes to cumulative intraperitoneal inflammation and peritoneal injury. The present study aimed to explore the capacity of dialysate interleukin-6(IL-6) to a) predict peritoneal membrane function and peritonitis in incident PD patients, and b) to evaluate the influence of neutral pH, low glucose degradation product (GDP) PD solution on dialysate IL-6 levels. Methods The study included 88 incident participants from the balANZ trial who had completed 24-months of follow-up. Change in peritoneal solute transport rate (PSTR) and peritonitis were primary outcome measures, and the utility of IL-6 and IL-6 appearance rate (IL-6 AR) in predicting these outcomes was analyzed using multilevel linear regression and Cox proportional hazards models, respectively. Sensitivity analyses were performed by analyzing outcomes in a peritonitis-free cohort (n = 56). Results Dialysate IL-6 concentration significantly increased from baseline to 24 months (mean difference 19.07 pg/mL; P < 0.001) but was not affected by the type of PD solution received (P = 0.68). An increase in PSTR from baseline was associated with higher levels of IL-6 (P = 0.004), the use of standard solutions (P = 0.005) and longer PD duration (P < 0.001). Baseline IL-6 level was not associated with a shorter time to first peritonitis (adjusted hazard ratio 1.00, 95% CI 0.99-1.00, P = 0.74). Analysis of IL-6 AR as well as sensitivity analyses in a peritonitis-free cohort yielded comparable results. Conclusion Dialysate IL-6 concentration increased with longer PD duration and was a significant, independent predictor of PSTR. The use of biocompatible PD solutions exerted no significant effect on dialysate IL-6 levels but did abrogate the increase in PSTR associated with standard PD solutions. This is the first study to examine the impact of biocompatible solutions on the utility of IL-6 in predicting PSTR and peritonitis. PMID:24410736

Trait psychopathy, emotional intelligence, and criminal thinking: Predicting illegal behavior among college students.

PubMed

Fix, Rebecca L; Fix, Spencer T

2015-01-01

Research focusing on individuals high on trait psychopathy remains limited. Higher trait psychopathy is associated with lower levels of emotional intelligence and increased participation in illegal behavior. Additionally, research has confirmed significantly higher levels of criminal thinking and lower levels of empathy in the incarcerated psychopathic population. However, the relationships between trait psychopathy and criminal thinking have not been researched in the community or college population. To test for such differences, questionnaires containing relevant measures were administered to 111 college students. Results indicated that higher levels of trait psychopathy were significantly related to less caring for others, intrapersonal understanding, and general mood, and greater interpersonal functioning and stress management. Furthermore, trait psychopathy was a strong predictor of violent, property, drug, and status offenses. Power-oriented criminal thinking was also predictive of violent behaviors, and entitlement predicted property offending. Results suggest emotional intelligence is important for predicting psychopathy, and trait psychopathy is a strong predictor of all types of illegal behaviors among the non-incarcerated population. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Sperm competition games: a general model for precopulatory male-male competition.

PubMed

Parker, Geoff A; Lessells, Catherine M; Simmons, Leigh W

2013-01-01

Reproductive males face a trade-off between expenditure on precopulatory male-male competition--increasing the number of females that they secure as mates--and sperm competition--increasing their fertilization success with those females. Previous sperm allocation models have focused on scramble competition in which males compete by searching for mates and the number of matings rises linearly with precopulatory expenditure. However, recent studies have emphasized contest competition involving precopulatory expenditure on armaments, where winning contests may be highly dependent on marginal increases in relative armament level. Here, we develop a general model of sperm allocation that allows us to examine the effect of all forms of precopulatory competition on sperm allocation patterns. The model predicts that sperm allocation decreases if either the "mate-competition loading,"a, or the number of males competing for each mating, M, increases. Other predictions remain unchanged from previous models: (i) expenditure per ejaculate should increase and then decrease, and (ii) total postcopulatory expenditure should increase, as the level of sperm competition increases. A negative correlation between a and M is biologically plausible, and may buffer deviations from the previous models. There is some support for our predictions from comparative analyses across dung beetle species and frog populations. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Poststroke Fatigue: Who Is at Risk for an Increase in Fatigue?

PubMed Central

van Eijsden, Hanna Maria; van de Port, Ingrid Gerrie Lambert; Visser-Meily, Johanna Maria August; Kwakkel, Gert

2012-01-01

Background. Several studies have examined determinants related to post-stroke fatigue. However, it is unclear which determinants can predict an increase in poststroke fatigue over time. Aim. This prospective cohort study aimed to identify determinants which predict an increase in post-stroke fatigue. Methods. A total of 250 patients with stroke were examined at inpatient rehabilitation discharge (T0) and 24 weeks later (T1). Fatigue was measured using the Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS). An increase in post-stroke fatigue was defined as an increase in the FSS score beyond the 95% limits of the standard error of measurement of the FSS (i.e., 1.41 points) between T0 and T1. Candidate determinants included personal factors, stroke characteristics, physical, cognitive, and emotional functions, and activities and participation and were assessed at T0. Factors predicting an increase in fatigue were identified using forward multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results. The only independent predictor of an increase in post-stroke fatigue was FSS (OR 0.50; 0.38–0.64, P < 0.001). The model including FSS at baseline correctly predicted 7.9% of the patients who showed increased fatigue at T1. Conclusion. The prognostic model to predict an increase in fatigue after stroke has limited predictive value, but baseline fatigue is the most important independent predictor. Overall, fatigue levels remained stable over time. PMID:22028989

Poly-Omic Prediction of Complex Traits: OmicKriging

PubMed Central

Wheeler, Heather E.; Aquino-Michaels, Keston; Gamazon, Eric R.; Trubetskoy, Vassily V.; Dolan, M. Eileen; Huang, R. Stephanie; Cox, Nancy J.; Im, Hae Kyung

2014-01-01

High-confidence prediction of complex traits such as disease risk or drug response is an ultimate goal of personalized medicine. Although genome-wide association studies have discovered thousands of well-replicated polymorphisms associated with a broad spectrum of complex traits, the combined predictive power of these associations for any given trait is generally too low to be of clinical relevance. We propose a novel systems approach to complex trait prediction, which leverages and integrates similarity in genetic, transcriptomic, or other omics-level data. We translate the omic similarity into phenotypic similarity using a method called Kriging, commonly used in geostatistics and machine learning. Our method called OmicKriging emphasizes the use of a wide variety of systems-level data, such as those increasingly made available by comprehensive surveys of the genome, transcriptome, and epigenome, for complex trait prediction. Furthermore, our OmicKriging framework allows easy integration of prior information on the function of subsets of omics-level data from heterogeneous sources without the sometimes heavy computational burden of Bayesian approaches. Using seven disease datasets from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC), we show that OmicKriging allows simple integration of sparse and highly polygenic components yielding comparable performance at a fraction of the computing time of a recently published Bayesian sparse linear mixed model method. Using a cellular growth phenotype, we show that integrating mRNA and microRNA expression data substantially increases performance over either dataset alone. Using clinical statin response, we show improved prediction over existing methods. PMID:24799323

Energy storage and fecundity explain deviations from ecological stoichiometry predictions under global warming and size-selective predation.

PubMed

Zhang, Chao; Jansen, Mieke; De Meester, Luc; Stoks, Robby

2016-11-01

A key challenge for ecologists is to predict how single and joint effects of global warming and predation risk translate from the individual level up to ecosystem functions. Recently, stoichiometric theory linked these levels through changes in body stoichiometry, predicting that both higher temperatures and predation risk induce shifts in energy storage (increases in C-rich carbohydrates and reductions in N-rich proteins) and body stoichiometry (increases in C : N and C : P). This promising theory, however, is rarely tested and assumes that prey will divert energy away from reproduction under predation risk, while under size-selective predation, prey instead increase fecundity. We exposed the water flea Daphnia magna to 4 °C warming and fish predation risk to test whether C-rich carbohydrates increase and N-rich proteins decrease, and as a result, C : N and C : P increase under warming and predation risk. Unexpectedly, warming decreased body C : N, which was driven by reductions in C-rich fat and sugar contents while the protein content did not change. This reflected a trade-off where the accelerated intrinsic growth rate under warming occurred at the cost of a reduced energy storage. Warming reduced C : N less and only increased C : P and N : P in the fish-period Daphnia. These evolved stoichiometric responses to warming were largely driven by stronger warming-induced reductions in P than in C and N and could be explained by the better ability to deal with warming in the fish-period Daphnia. In contrast to theory predictions, body C : N decreased under predation risk due to a strong increase in the N-rich protein content that offsets the increase in C-rich fat content. The higher investment in fecundity (more N-rich eggs) under predation risk contributed to this stronger increase in protein content. Similarly, the lower body C : N of pre-fish Daphnia also matched their higher fecundity. Warming and predation risk independently shaped body stoichiometry, largely by changing levels of energy storage molecules. Our results highlight that two widespread patterns, the trade-off between rapid development and energy storage and the increased investment in reproduction under size-selective predation, cause predictable deviations from current ecological stoichiometry theory. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Leptin levels in patients with anorexia nervosa following day/inpatient treatment do not predict weight 1 year post-referral.

PubMed

Seitz, Jochen; Bühren, Katharina; Biemann, Ronald; Timmesfeld, Nina; Dempfle, Astrid; Winter, Sibylle Maria; Egberts, Karin; Fleischhaker, Christian; Wewetzer, Christoph; Herpertz-Dahlmann, Beate; Hebebrand, Johannes; Föcker, Manuel

2016-09-01

Elevated serum leptin levels following rapid therapeutically induced weight gain in anorexia nervosa (AN) patients are discussed as a potential biomarker for renewed weight loss as a result of leptin-related suppression of appetite and increased energy expenditure. This study aims to analyze the predictive value of leptin levels at discharge as well as the average rate of weight gain during inpatient or day patient treatment for body weight at 1-year follow-up. 121 patients were recruited from the longitudinal Anorexia Nervosa Day patient versus Inpatient (ANDI) trial. Serum leptin levels were analyzed at referral and discharge. A multiple linear regression analysis to predict age-adjusted body mass index (BMI-SDS) at 1-year follow-up was performed. Leptin levels, the average rate of weight gain, premorbid BMI-SDS, BMI-SDS at referral, age and illness duration were included as independent variables. Neither leptin levels at discharge nor rate of weight gain significantly predicted BMI-SDS at 1-year follow-up explaining only 1.8 and 0.4 % of the variance, respectively. According to our results, leptin levels at discharge and average rate of weight gain did not exhibit any value in predicting weight at 1-year follow-up in our longitudinal observation study of adolescent patients with AN. Thus, research should focus on other potential factors to predict weight at follow-up. As elevated leptin levels and average rate of weight gain did not pose a risk for reduced weight, we found no evidence for the beneficial effect of slow refeeding in patients with acute AN.

The effect of psychological distance on automatic goal contagion

PubMed Central

Wessler, Janet; Hansen, Jochim

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT We investigated how psychological distance influences goal contagion (the extent to which people automatically adopt another person’s goals). On the basis of construal-level theory, we predicted people would be more prone to goal contagion when primed with psychological distance (vs. closeness) because they would construe the other person’s behavior in terms of its underlying goal. Alternatively, we predicted people primed with psychological closeness (vs. distance) would be more prone to goal contagion because closeness may increase the personal relevance of another’s goals – a process not mediated by construal level. In two preregistered studies, participants read about a student whose behavior implied either an academic or a social goal. We manipulated (a) participants’ level of mental construal with a mind-set task (Study 1) and (b) their social distance from another person who showed academic or social behaviors (Study 2). We measured performance on an anagram task as an indicator of academic goal contagion. For Study 1, we predicted that participants reading about academic (vs. social) behaviors would show a better anagram performance, especially when primed with an abstract mind-set. For Study 2, we predicted that construal level and relevance effects might cancel each other out, because distance triggers both high-level construal and less relevance. In contrast to the construal-level hypothesis, the mind-set manipulation did not affect goal contagion in Study 1. In accordance with the relevance hypothesis, psychological proximity increased goal contagion in Study 2. We discuss how the findings relate to previous findings on goal contagion and imitation. PMID:29098177

The closer 'We' are, the stronger 'I' am: the impact of couple identity on cancer coping self-efficacy.

PubMed

Ahmad, Saunia; Fergus, Karen; Shatokhina, Kristina; Gardner, Sandra

2017-06-01

The present study tested the supposition that greater levels of couple identity (or we-ness) increase a woman's coping self-efficacy in relation to breast cancer, which, in turn, predicts better psychosocial adjustment. Women (N = 112) in committed relationships completed surveys assessing their levels of couple identity, cancer coping self-efficacy, and aspects of their psychosocial adjustment (specifically, depression, anxiety and functional well-being) during one of their outpatient visits to the cancer centre. As predicted, the more women identified with their relationships, the lower their levels of depression and anxiety were and the greater their functional well-being was. This relationship was mediated by coping self-efficacy: greater identification with one's relationship predicted greater confidence in one's ability to cope, which, in turn, predicted better adjustment. The role intimate relationships play in women's adjustment to breast cancer, as well as directions for further research, are discussed.

Future Nuisance Flooding at Boston Caused by Astronomical Tides Alone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.; Foster, Grant

2016-01-01

Sea level rise necessarily triggers more occurrences of minor, or nuisance, flooding events along coastlines, a fact well documented in recent studies. At some locations nuisance flooding can be brought about merely by high spring tides, independent of storms, winds, or other atmospheric conditions. Analysis of observed water levels at Boston indicates that tidal flooding began to occur there in 2011 and will become more frequent in subsequent years. A compilation of all predicted nuisance-flooding events, induced by astronomical tides alone, is presented through year 2050. The accuracy of the tide prediction is improved when several unusual properties of Gulf of Maine tides, including secular changes, are properly accounted for. Future mean sea-level rise at Boston cannot be predicted with comparable confidence, so two very different climate scenarios are adopted; both predict a large increase in the frequency and the magnitude of tidal flooding events.

Derivation of a target concentration of Pb in soil based on elevation of adult blood pressure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stern, A.H.

1996-04-01

The increase in systolic blood pressure in males appears to be the most sensitive adult endpoint appropriate for deriving a health risk-based target level of lead (Ph) in soil. Because the response of blood pressure to blood Ph concentration (PbB) has no apparent threshold, traditional approaches based on the application of a Reference Dose (RfD) are not applicable. An alternative approach is presented based on a model which predicts the population shift in systolic blood pressure from ingestion of Pb contaminated soil as a simultaneous function of exposure to Pb in soil, the baseline distribution of blood Pb concentration inmore » the population and the baseline distribution of systolic pressure in the population. This model is analyzed using Monte Carlo analysis to predict the population distribution of systolic pressure resulting from Ph exposure. Based on this analysis, it is predicted that for adult males 18-65 years old, exposure to 1000 ppm Pb in soil will result in an increase of approximately 1 mm Hg systolic pressure, an increase in the incidence of systolic hypertension (i.e., systolic pressure >140 mm Hg) of approximately 1% and an increase in PbB of 1-3 {mu}g/dl. Based on the proposition that these adverse effects can be considered de minimis, 1000 ppm Ph in soil is proposed as a target soil concentration for adult exposure. Available data do not appear to be adequate to predict the newborn PbB level which would result from exposure to this soil level during pregnancy, 36 refs., 6 figs.« less

Pretreatment tables predicting pathologic stage of locally advanced prostate cancer.

PubMed

Joniau, Steven; Spahn, Martin; Briganti, Alberto; Gandaglia, Giorgio; Tombal, Bertrand; Tosco, Lorenzo; Marchioro, Giansilvio; Hsu, Chao-Yu; Walz, Jochen; Kneitz, Burkhard; Bader, Pia; Frohneberg, Detlef; Tizzani, Alessandro; Graefen, Markus; van Cangh, Paul; Karnes, R Jeffrey; Montorsi, Francesco; van Poppel, Hein; Gontero, Paolo

2015-02-01

Pretreatment tables for the prediction of pathologic stage have been published and validated for localized prostate cancer (PCa). No such tables are available for locally advanced (cT3a) PCa. To construct tables predicting pathologic outcome after radical prostatectomy (RP) for patients with cT3a PCa with the aim to help guide treatment decisions in clinical practice. This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study including 759 consecutive patients with cT3a PCa treated with RP between 1987 and 2010. Retropubic RP and pelvic lymphadenectomy. Patients were divided into pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and biopsy Gleason score (GS) subgroups. These parameters were used to construct tables predicting pathologic outcome and the presence of positive lymph nodes (LNs) after RP for cT3a PCa using ordinal logistic regression. In the model predicting pathologic outcome, the main effects of biopsy GS and pretreatment PSA were significant. A higher GS and/or higher PSA level was associated with a more unfavorable pathologic outcome. The validation procedure, using a repeated split-sample method, showed good predictive ability. Regression analysis also showed an increasing probability of positive LNs with increasing PSA levels and/or higher GS. Limitations of the study are the retrospective design and the long study period. These novel tables predict pathologic stage after RP for patients with cT3a PCa based on pretreatment PSA level and biopsy GS. They can be used to guide decision making in men with locally advanced PCa. Our study might provide physicians with a useful tool to predict pathologic stage in locally advanced prostate cancer that might help select patients who may need multimodal treatment. Copyright © 2014 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Predictive Validity of the National Board of Osteopathic Medical Examiners' COMLEX-USA Examinations With Regard to Outcomes on American Board of Family Medicine Examinations.

PubMed

O'Neill, Thomas R; Peabody, Michael R; Song, Hao

2016-11-01

To examine the predictive validity of the National Board of Osteopathic Medical Examiners' Comprehensive Osteopathic Medical Licensing Examination of the United States of America (COMLEX-USA) series with regard to the American Board of Family Medicine's (ABFM's) In-Training Examination (ITE) and Maintenance of Certification for Family Physicians (MC-FP) Examination. A repeated-measures design was employed, using test scores across seven levels of training for 1,023 DOs who took the MC-FP for the first time between April 2012 and November 2014 and for whom the ABFM had ITE scores for each of their residency years. Pearson and disattenuated correlations were calculated; Fisher r to z transformation was performed; and sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for the COMLEX-USA Level 2-Cognitive Evaluation (CE) with regard to the MC-FP were computed. The Pearson and disattenuated correlations ranged from 0.55 to 0.69 and from 0.61 to 0.80, respectively. For MC-FP scores, only the correlation increase from the COMLEX-USA Level 2-CE to Level 3 was statistically significant (for Pearson correlations: z = 2.41, P = .008; for disattenuated correlations: z = 3.16, P < .001). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the COMLEX-USA Level 2-CE with the MC-FP were 0.90, 0.39, 0.96, and 0.19, respectively. Evidence was found that the COMLEX-USA can assist family medicine residency program directors in predicting later resident performance on the ABFM's ITE and MC-FP, which is becoming increasingly important as graduate medical education accreditation moves toward a single aligned model.

Social change and birth cohort increase in loneliness among Chinese older adults: a cross-temporal meta-analysis, 1995-2011.

PubMed

Yan, Zhimin; Yang, Xun; Wang, Lei; Zhao, Yuhan; Yu, Lin

2014-11-01

In China, rapid economic growth and increasing social problems constitute the two basic characteristics underlying contemporary social change. With dramatic social change, loneliness in older adults may have changed across birth cohorts, thus altering older adults' mental health. The present study aims to identify birth cohort changes in Chinese older adults' loneliness and the social indicators underlying these changes. Cross-temporal meta-analysis was utilized to investigate changes in Chinese older adults' loneliness from 1995 to 2011. We analyzed 25 studies (N = 13,280 adults; age ≥ 60 years) employing the University of California at Los Angeles Loneliness Scale. We correlated loneliness scores with social indicators and matched these correlations for three periods: ten years before the data collection, five years before data collection, and during the year of data collection. Loneliness levels in Chinese older adults have increased by 1.02 standard deviations from 1995 to 2011. Social indicators such as increased urbanization level, personal medical expenditure, divorce rate, the Gini coefficient, and unemployment rate significantly predicted loneliness in Chinese older adults. Decrease in social connectedness and increase in levels of health threat may be responsible for the observed increase in levels of loneliness. Cross-temporal meta-analysis revealed a birth cohort increase in loneliness among Chinese older adults. We conclude that changes in social connectedness and levels of health threat likely play an important role in predicting loneliness in the population of Chinese elderly adults.

Prediction Markets as a Way to Manage Acquisition Programs

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-01

volume helps management set production levels, but if management increases advertising it will undermine the market . This becomes critical for the DoD...34 Corporate Strategy Board. Gaspoz, C. (2008). "Prediction markets as an innovative way to manage R&D portfolios." CAiSE Doctoral Consortium. Montpellier...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT Prediction Markets as a Way to Manage Acquisition

Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Aspen Growth Potential in the Upper Great Lakes Region

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Sue M. Lietz; John L. Wright

2003-01-01

One way to increase aspen yields is to produce aspen on sites where aspen growth potential is highest. Aspen growth rates are typically predicted using site index, but this is impractical for landscape-level assessments. We tested the hypothesis that aspen growth can be predicted from site and climate variables and generated a model to map the spatial variability of...

Serum Levels of Progranulin Do Not Reflect Cerebrospinal Fluid Levels in Neurodegenerative Disease.

PubMed

Wilke, Carlo; Gillardon, Frank; Deuschle, Christian; Dubois, Evelyn; Hobert, Markus A; Müller vom Hagen, Jennifer; Krüger, Stefanie; Biskup, Saskia; Blauwendraat, Cornelis; Hruscha, Michael; Kaeser, Stephan A; Heutink, Peter; Maetzler, Walter; Synofzik, Matthis

2016-01-01

Altered progranulin levels play a major role in neurodegenerative diseases, like Alzheimer's dementia (AD), frontotemporal dementia (FTD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), even in the absence of GRN mutations. Increasing progranulin levels could hereby provide a novel treatment strategy. However, knowledge on progranulin regulation in neurodegenerative diseases remains limited. We here demonstrate that cerebrospinal fluid progranulin levels do not correlate with its serum levels in AD, FTD and ALS, indicating a differential regulation of its central and peripheral levels in neurodegeneration. Blood progranulin levels thus do not reliably predict central nervous progranulin levels and their response to future progranulin-increasing therapeutics.

Right-frontal cortical asymmetry predicts increased proneness to nostalgia.

PubMed

Tullett, Alexa M; Wildschut, Tim; Sedikides, Constantine; Inzlicht, Michael

2015-08-01

Nostalgia is often triggered by feelings-such as sadness, loneliness, or meaninglessness-that are typically associated with withdrawal motivation. Here, we examined whether a trait tendency to experience withdrawal motivation is associated with nostalgia proneness. Past work indicates that baseline right-frontal cortical asymmetry is a neural correlate of withdrawal-related motivation. We therefore hypothesized that higher baseline levels of right-frontal asymmetry would predict increased proneness to nostalgia. We assessed participants' baseline levels of frontal cortical activity using EEG. Results supported the hypothesis and demonstrated that the association between relative right-frontal asymmetry and increased nostalgia remained significant when controlling for the Big Five personality traits. Overall, these findings indicate that individuals with a stronger dispositional tendency to experience withdrawal-related motivation are more prone to nostalgia. © 2015 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Mean-level change and intraindividual variability in self-esteem and depression among high-risk children

PubMed Central

Kim, Jungmeen; Cicchetti, Dante

2012-01-01

This study investigated mean-level changes and intraindividual variability of self-esteem among maltreated (n=142) and nonmaltreated (n=109) school-aged children from low-income families. Longitudinal factor analysis revealed higher temporal stability of self-esteem among maltreated children compared to nonmaltreated children. Cross-domain latent growth curve models indicated that nonmaltreated children showed higher initial levels and greater increases in self-esteem than maltreated children, and that the initial levels of self-esteem were significantly associated with depressive symptoms among maltreated and nonmaltreated children. The average level (mean of repeated measurements) of self-esteem was predictive of depression at the final occasion for both maltreated and nonmaltreated children. For nonmaltreated children intraindividual variability of self-esteem had a direct contribution to prediction of depression. The findings enhance our understanding of developmental changes in self-esteem and the role of the average level and within-person variability of self-esteem in predicting depressive symptoms among high-risk children. PMID:22822280

Predicting Trihalomethanes (THMs) in the New York City Water Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukundan, R.; Van Dreason, R.

2013-12-01

Chlorine, a commonly used disinfectant in most water supply systems, can combine with organic carbon to form disinfectant byproducts including carcinogenic trihalomethanes (THMs). We used water quality data from 24 monitoring sites within the New York City (NYC) water supply distribution system, measured between January 2009 and April 2012, to develop site-specific empirical models for predicting total trihalomethane (TTHM) levels. Terms in the model included various combinations of the following water quality parameters: total organic carbon, pH, specific conductivity, and water temperature. Reasonable estimates of TTHM levels were achieved with overall R2 of about 0.87 and predicted values within 5 μg/L of measured values. The relative importance of factors affecting TTHM formation was estimated by ranking the model regression coefficients. Site-specific models showed improved model performance statistics compared to a single model for the entire system most likely because the single model did not consider locational differences in the water treatment process. Although never out of compliance in 2011, the TTHM levels in the water supply increased following tropical storms Irene and Lee with 45% of the samples exceeding the 80 μg/L Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) in October and November. This increase was explained by changes in water quality parameters, particularly by the increase in total organic carbon concentration and pH during this period.

Predicting population dynamics from the properties of individuals: a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget theory.

PubMed

Martin, Benjamin T; Jager, Tjalling; Nisbet, Roger M; Preuss, Thomas G; Grimm, Volker

2013-04-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) are increasingly used to link the dynamics of individuals to higher levels of biological organization. Still, many IBMs are data hungry, species specific, and time-consuming to develop and analyze. Many of these issues would be resolved by using general theories of individual dynamics as the basis for IBMs. While such theories have frequently been examined at the individual level, few cross-level tests exist that also try to predict population dynamics. Here we performed a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory by parameterizing an individual-based model using individual-level data of the water flea, Daphnia magna, and comparing the emerging population dynamics to independent data from population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities but failed to capture the decline phase. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small- and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detect gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology.

Morphodynamic data assimilation used to understand changing coasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

2015-01-01

Morphodynamic data assimilation blends observations with model predictions and comes in many forms, including linear regression, Kalman filter, brute-force parameter estimation, variational assimilation, and Bayesian analysis. Importantly, data assimilation can be used to identify sources of prediction errors that lead to improved fundamental understanding. Overall, models incorporating data assimilation yield better information to the people who must make decisions impacting safety and wellbeing in coastal regions that experience hazards due to storms, sea-level rise, and erosion. We present examples of data assimilation associated with morphologic change. We conclude that enough morphodynamic predictive capability is available now to be useful to people, and that we will increase our understanding and the level of detail of our predictions through assimilation of observations and numerical-statistical models.

Serum ferritin in combination with prostate-specific antigen improves predictive accuracy for prostate cancer.

PubMed

Wang, Xijuan; An, Peng; Zeng, Jiling; Liu, Xiaoyan; Wang, Bo; Fang, Xuexian; Wang, Fudi; Ren, Guoping; Min, Junxia

2017-03-14

Ferritin is highly expressed in many cancer types. Although a few studies have reported an association between high serum ferritin levels and an increased risk of prostate cancer, the results are inconsistent. Therefore, we performed a large case-control study consisting of 2002 prostate cancer patients and 951 control patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). We found that high ferritin levels were positively associated with increased serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels and prostate cancer risk; each 100 ng/ml increase in serum ferritin increased the odds ratio (OR) by 1.20 (95% CI: 1.13-1.36). In the prostate cancer group, increased serum ferritin levels were significantly correlated with higher Gleason scores (p < 0.001). Notably, serum PSA values had even higher predictive accuracy among prostate cancer patients with serum ferritin levels > 400 ng/ml (Gleason score + total PSA correlation: r = 0.38; Gleason score + free PSA correlation: r = 0.49). Moreover, using immunohistochemistry, we found that prostate tissue ferritin levels were significantly higher (p < 0.001) in prostate cancer patients (n = 129) compared to BPH controls (n = 31). Prostate tissue ferritin levels were also highly correlated with serum ferritin when patients were classified by cancer severity (r = 0.81). Importantly, we found no correlation between serum ferritin levels and the inflammation marker C-reactive protein (CRP) in prostate cancer patients. In conclusion, serum ferritin is significantly associated with prostate cancer and may serve as a non-invasive biomarker to complement the PSA test in the diagnosis and prognostic evaluation of prostate cancer.

Marital conflict and risk for child maladjustment over time: skin conductance level reactivity as a vulnerability factor.

PubMed

El-Sheikh, Mona; Keller, Peggy S; Erath, Stephen A

2007-10-01

Skin conductance level reactivity (SCLR) was examined as a longitudinal mediator and moderator of relations between parental marital conflict and psychopathology among children and young adolescents. Participants were 157 boys and girls (M age at T1 = 9.31 years; SD = 1.97); there was a 2-year lag between T1 and T2 assessments. At T1, participants' SCLR was assessed in response to lab challenges. Parents completed measures of aggressive marital conflict and child adjustment at T1 and T2. Supportive of moderation effects, T1 marital conflict interacted with T1 SCLR and gender in the prediction of changes in maladjustment. The link between marital conflict and increased internalizing and externalizing symptoms was stronger for girls with higher SCLR than girls with lower SCLR. Marital conflict predicted increased externalizing behaviors for boys with lower SCLR but not higher SCLR, although levels of externalizing behaviors were similar among boys with lower and higher SCLR especially at higher levels of marital conflict. Findings build on the literature by illustrating the importance of examinations of both family risk and youth biological vulnerability for the prediction of psychopathology.

Decreased C-reactive protein levels in Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

O'Bryant, Sid E; Waring, Stephen C; Hobson, Valerie; Hall, James R; Moore, Carol B; Bottiglieri, Teodoro; Massman, Paul; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon

2010-03-01

C-reactive protein (CRP) is an acute-phase reactant that has been found to be associated with Alzheimer disease (AD) in histopathological and longitudinal studies; however, little data exist regarding serum CRP levels in patients with established AD. The current study evaluated CRP levels in 192 patients diagnosed with probable AD (mean age = 75.8 +/- 8.2 years; 50% female) as compared to 174 nondemented controls (mean age = 70.6 +/- 8.2 years; 63% female). Mean CRP levels were found to be significantly decreased in AD (2.9 microg/mL) versus controls (4.9 microg/mL; P = .003). In adjusted models, elevated CRP significantly predicted poorer (elevated) Clinical Dementia Rating Scale sum of boxes (CDR SB) scores in patients with AD. In controls, CRP was negatively associated with Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores and positively associated with CDR SB scores. These findings, together with previously published results, are consistent with the hypothesis that midlife elevations in CRP are associated with increased risk of AD development though elevated CRP levels are not useful for prediction in the immediate prodrome years before AD becomes clinically manifest. However, for a subgroup of patients with AD, elevated CRP continues to predict increased dementia severity suggestive of a possible proinflammatory endophenotype in AD.

Decreased C-Reactive Protein Levels in Alzheimer Disease

PubMed Central

O’Bryant, Sid E.; Waring, Stephen C.; Hobson, Valerie; Hall, James R.; Moore, Carol B.; Bottiglieri, Teodoro; Massman, Paul; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon

2011-01-01

C-reactive protein (CRP) is an acute-phase reactant that has been found to be associated with Alzheimer disease (AD) in histo-pathological and longitudinal studies; however, little data exist regarding serum CRP levels in patients with established AD. The current study evaluated CRP levels in 192 patients diagnosed with probable AD (mean age = 75.8 ± 8.2 years; 50% female) as compared to 174 nondemented controls (mean age = 70.6 ± 8.2 years; 63% female). Mean CRP levels were found to be significantly decreased in AD (2.9 µg/mL) versus controls (4.9 µg/mL; P = .003). In adjusted models, elevated CRP significantly predicted poorer (elevated) Clinical Dementia Rating Scale sum of boxes (CDR SB) scores in patients with AD. In controls, CRP was negatively associated with Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores and positively associated with CDR SB scores. These findings, together with previously published results, are consistent with the hypothesis that midlife elevations in CRP are associated with increased risk of AD development though elevated CRP levels are not useful for prediction in the immediate prodrome years before AD becomes clinically manifest. However, for a subgroup of patients with AD, elevated CRP continues to predict increased dementia severity suggestive of a possible proinflammatory endophenotype in AD. PMID:19933496

Plasma big endothelin-1 level and the severity of new-onset stable coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Chen, Juan; Chen, Man-Hua; Guo, Yuan-Lin; Zhu, Cheng-Gang; Xu, Rui-Xia; Dong, Qian; Li, Jian-Jun

2015-01-01

To investigate the usefulness of the plasma big endothelin-1 (big ET-1) level in predicting the severity of new-onset stable angiography-proven coronary artery disease (CAD). A total of 963 consecutive stable CAD patients with more than 50% stenosis in at least one main vessel were enrolled. The patients were classified into the three groups according to the tertile of the Gensini score (GS, low GS ＜20, n=300; intermediate GS 20-40, n=356 and high GS ＞40, n=307), and the relationship between the big ET-1 level and GS was evaluated. The plasma levels of big ET-1 increased significantly in association with increases in the GS tertile (p=0.007). A multivariate analysis suggested that the plasma big ET-1 level was an independent predictor for a high GS (OR=2.26, 95%CI: 1.23-4.15, p=0.009), and there was a positive correlation between the big ET-1 level and the GS (r=0.20, p=0.000). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the big ET-1 level in predicting a high GS was 0.64 (95% CI 0.60-0.68, p=0.000), and the optimal cutoff value for the plasma big ET-1 level for predicting a high GS was 0.34 fmol/mL, with a sensitivity of 62.6% and specificity of 60.3%. In the high-big ET-1 level group (≥0.34 fmol/mL), there were significantly increased rates of three-vessel disease (43.6% vs. 35.4%, p=0.017) and a high GS [31 (17-54) vs. 24 (16-44), p=0.001] compared with that observed in the low-big ET-1 level group. The present findings indicate that the plasma big ET-1 level is a useful predictor of the severity of new-onset stable CAD associated with significant stenosis.

Diagnostic properties of C-reactive protein for detecting pneumonia in children.

PubMed

Koster, Madieke J; Broekhuizen, Berna D L; Minnaard, Margaretha C; Balemans, Walter A F; Hopstaken, Rogier M; de Jong, Pim A; Verheij, Theo J M

2013-07-01

The diagnostic value of C-reactive protein (CRP) level for pneumonia in children is unknown. As a first step in the assessment of the value of CRP, a diagnostic study was performed in children at an emergency department (ED). In this cross-sectional study, data were retrospectively collected from children presenting with suspected pneumonia at the ED of Antonius Hospital Nieuwegein in The Netherlands between January 2007 and January 2012. Diagnostic outcome was pneumonia yes/no according to independent radiologist. (Un)adjusted association between CRP level and pneumonia and diagnostic value of CRP were calculated. Of 687 presenting children, 286 underwent both CRP measurement and chest radiography. 148 had pneumonia (52%). The proportion of pneumonia increased with CRP level. Negative predictive values declined, but positive predictive values increased with higher CRP thresholds. Univariable odds ratio for the association between CRP level and pneumonia was 1.2 (95% CI 1.11-1.21) per 10 mg/L increase. After adjustment for baseline characteristics CRP level remained associated with pneumonia. CRP level has independent diagnostic value for pneumonia in children presenting at the ED with suspected pneumonia, but low levels do not exclude pneumonia in this setting. These results prompt evaluation of CRP in primary care children with LRTI. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient lowering of triglyceride levels in mice by human apoAV protein variants associated with hypertriglyceridemia.

PubMed

Vaessen, Stefan F C; Sierts, Jeroen A; Kuivenhoven, Jan Albert; Schaap, Frank G

2009-02-06

Variation in the apolipoprotein A5 (APOA5) gene has consistently been associated with increased plasma triglyceride (TG) levels in epidemiological studies. In vivo functionality of these variations, however, has thus far not been tested. Using adenoviral over-expression, we evaluated plasma expression levels and TG-lowering efficacies of wild-type human apoAV, two human apoAV variants associated with increased TG (S19W, G185C) and one variant (Q341H) that is predicted to have altered protein function. Injection of mice with adenovirus encoding wild-type or mutant apoAV resulted in an identical dose-dependent elevation of human apoAV levels in plasma. The increase in apoAV levels resulted in pronounced lowering of plasma TG levels at two viral dosages. Unexpectedly, the TG-lowering efficacy of all three apoAV variants was similar to wild-type apoAV. In addition, no effect on TG-hydrolysis-related plasma parameters (free fatty acids, glycerol and post-heparin lipoprotein lipase activity) was apparent upon expression of all apoAV variants. In conclusion, our data indicate that despite their association with hypertriglyceridemia and/or predicted protein dysfunction, the 19W, 185C and 341H apoAV variants are equally effective in reducing plasma TG levels in mice.

The theory of planned behavior applied to young people's use of social networking Web sites.

PubMed

Pelling, Emma L; White, Katherine M

2009-12-01

Despite the increasing popularity of social networking Web sites (SNWs), very little is known about the psychosocial variables that predict people's use of these Web sites. The present study used an extended model of the theory of planned behavior (TPB), including the additional variables of self-identity and belongingness, to predict high-level SNW use intentions and behavior in a sample of young people ages 17 to 24 years. Additional analyses examined the impact of self-identity and belongingness on young people's addictive tendencies toward SNWs. University students (N = 233) completed measures of the standard TPB constructs (attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control), the additional predictor variables (self-identity and belongingness), demographic variables (age, gender, and past behavior), and addictive tendencies. One week later, they reported their engagement in high-level SNW use during the previous week. Regression analyses partially supported the TPB: attitude and subjective norm significantly predicted intentions to engage in high-level SNW use with intention significantly predicting behavior. Self-identity, but not belongingness, significantly contributed to the prediction of intention and, unexpectedly, behavior. Past behavior also significantly predicted intention and behavior. Self-identity and belongingness significantly predicted addictive tendencies toward SNWs. Overall, the present study revealed that high-level SNW use is influenced by attitudinal, normative, and self-identity factors, findings that can be used to inform strategies that aim to modify young people's high levels of use or addictive tendencies for SNWs.

A unifying theory for top-heavy ecosystem structure in the ocean.

PubMed

Woodson, C Brock; Schramski, John R; Joye, Samantha B

2018-01-02

Size generally dictates metabolic requirements, trophic level, and consequently, ecosystem structure, where inefficient energy transfer leads to bottom-heavy ecosystem structure and biomass decreases as individual size (or trophic level) increases. However, many animals deviate from simple size-based predictions by either adopting generalist predatory behavior, or feeding lower in the trophic web than predicted from their size. Here we show that generalist predatory behavior and lower trophic feeding at large body size increase overall biomass and shift ecosystems from a bottom-heavy pyramid to a top-heavy hourglass shape, with the most biomass accounted for by the largest animals. These effects could be especially dramatic in the ocean, where primary producers are the smallest components of the ecosystem. This approach makes it possible to explore and predict, in the past and in the future, the structure of ocean ecosystems without biomass extraction and other impacts.

Cultural Variability in the Link Between Environmental Concern and Support for Environmental Action.

PubMed

Eom, Kimin; Kim, Heejung S; Sherman, David K; Ishii, Keiko

2016-10-01

Research on sustainability behaviors has been based on the assumption that increasing personal concerns about the environment will increase proenvironmental action. We tested whether this assumption is more applicable to individualistic cultures than to collectivistic cultures. In Study 1, we compared 47 countries ( N = 57,268) and found that they varied considerably in the degree to which environmental concern predicted support for proenvironmental action. National-level individualism explained the between-nation variability above and beyond the effects of other cultural values and independently of person-level individualism. In Study 2, we compared individualistic and collectivistic nations (United States vs. Japan; N = 251) and found culture-specific predictors of proenvironmental behavior. Environmental concern predicted environmentally friendly consumer choice among European Americans but not Japanese. For Japanese participants, perceived norms about environmental behavior predicted proenvironmental decision making. Facilitating sustainability across nations requires an understanding of how culture determines which psychological factors drive human action.

Predictive values of D-dimer assay, GRACE scores and TIMI scores for adverse outcome in patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

PubMed Central

Satilmisoglu, Muhammet Hulusi; Ozyilmaz, Sinem Ozbay; Gul, Mehmet; Ak Yildirim, Hayriye; Kayapinar, Osman; Gokturk, Kadir; Aksu, Huseyin; Erkanli, Korhan; Eksik, Abdurrahman

2017-01-01

Purpose To determine the predictive values of D-dimer assay, Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) and Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores for adverse outcome in patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Patients and methods A total of 234 patients (mean age: 57.2±11.7 years, 75.2% were males) hospitalized with NSTEMI were included. Data on D-dimer assay, GRACE and TIMI risk scores were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the risk factors predicting increased mortality. Results Median D-dimer levels were 349.5 (48.0–7,210.0) ng/mL, the average TIMI score was 3.2±1.2 and the GRACE score was 90.4±27.6 with high GRACE scores (>118) in 17.5% of patients. The GRACE score was correlated positively with both the D-dimer assay (r=0.215, P=0.01) and TIMI scores (r=0.504, P=0.000). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that higher creatinine levels (odds ratio =18.465, 95% confidence interval: 1.059–322.084, P=0.046) constituted the only significant predictor of increased mortality risk with no predictive values for age, D-dimer assay, ejection fraction, glucose, hemoglobin A1c, sodium, albumin or total cholesterol levels for mortality. Conclusion Serum creatinine levels constituted the sole independent determinant of mortality risk, with no significant values for D-dimer assay, GRACE or TIMI scores for predicting the risk of mortality in NSTEMI patients. PMID:28408834

Assessing the Driver’s Current Level of Working Memory Load with High Density Functional Near-infrared Spectroscopy: A Realistic Driving Simulator Study

PubMed Central

Unni, Anirudh; Ihme, Klas; Jipp, Meike; Rieger, Jochem W.

2017-01-01

Cognitive overload or underload results in a decrease in human performance which may result in fatal incidents while driving. We envision that driver assistive systems which adapt their functionality to the driver’s cognitive state could be a promising approach to reduce road accidents due to human errors. This research attempts to predict variations of cognitive working memory load levels in a natural driving scenario with multiple parallel tasks and to reveal predictive brain areas. We used a modified version of the n-back task to induce five different working memory load levels (from 0-back up to 4-back) forcing the participants to continuously update, memorize, and recall the previous ‘n’ speed sequences and adjust their speed accordingly while they drove for approximately 60 min on a highway with concurrent traffic in a virtual reality driving simulator. We measured brain activation using multichannel whole head, high density functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) and predicted working memory load level from the fNIRS data by combining multivariate lasso regression and cross-validation. This allowed us to predict variations in working memory load in a continuous time-resolved manner with mean Pearson correlations between induced and predicted working memory load over 15 participants of 0.61 [standard error (SE) 0.04] and a maximum of 0.8. Restricting the analysis to prefrontal sensors placed over the forehead reduced the mean correlation to 0.38 (SE 0.04), indicating additional information gained through whole head coverage. Moreover, working memory load predictions derived from peripheral heart rate parameters achieved much lower correlations (mean 0.21, SE 0.1). Importantly, whole head fNIRS sampling revealed increasing brain activation in bilateral inferior frontal and bilateral temporo-occipital brain areas with increasing working memory load levels suggesting that these areas are specifically involved in workload-related processing. PMID:28424602

Assessing the Driver's Current Level of Working Memory Load with High Density Functional Near-infrared Spectroscopy: A Realistic Driving Simulator Study.

PubMed

Unni, Anirudh; Ihme, Klas; Jipp, Meike; Rieger, Jochem W

2017-01-01

Cognitive overload or underload results in a decrease in human performance which may result in fatal incidents while driving. We envision that driver assistive systems which adapt their functionality to the driver's cognitive state could be a promising approach to reduce road accidents due to human errors. This research attempts to predict variations of cognitive working memory load levels in a natural driving scenario with multiple parallel tasks and to reveal predictive brain areas. We used a modified version of the n-back task to induce five different working memory load levels (from 0-back up to 4-back) forcing the participants to continuously update, memorize, and recall the previous 'n' speed sequences and adjust their speed accordingly while they drove for approximately 60 min on a highway with concurrent traffic in a virtual reality driving simulator. We measured brain activation using multichannel whole head, high density functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) and predicted working memory load level from the fNIRS data by combining multivariate lasso regression and cross-validation. This allowed us to predict variations in working memory load in a continuous time-resolved manner with mean Pearson correlations between induced and predicted working memory load over 15 participants of 0.61 [standard error (SE) 0.04] and a maximum of 0.8. Restricting the analysis to prefrontal sensors placed over the forehead reduced the mean correlation to 0.38 (SE 0.04), indicating additional information gained through whole head coverage. Moreover, working memory load predictions derived from peripheral heart rate parameters achieved much lower correlations (mean 0.21, SE 0.1). Importantly, whole head fNIRS sampling revealed increasing brain activation in bilateral inferior frontal and bilateral temporo-occipital brain areas with increasing working memory load levels suggesting that these areas are specifically involved in workload-related processing.

Coupling centennial-scale shoreline change to sea-level rise and coastal morphology in the Gulf of Mexico using a Bayesian network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.

2016-01-01

Predictions of coastal evolution driven by episodic and persistent processes associated with storms and relative sea-level rise (SLR) are required to test our understanding, evaluate our predictive capability, and to provide guidance for coastal management decisions. Previous work demonstrated that the spatial variability of long-term shoreline change can be predicted using observed SLR rates, tide range, wave height, coastal slope, and a characterization of the geomorphic setting. The shoreline is not suf- ficient to indicate which processes are important in causing shoreline change, such as overwash that depends on coastal dune elevations. Predicting dune height is intrinsically important to assess future storm vulnerability. Here, we enhance shoreline-change predictions by including dune height as a vari- able in a statistical modeling approach. Dune height can also be used as an input variable, but it does not improve the shoreline-change prediction skill. Dune-height input does help to reduce prediction uncer- tainty. That is, by including dune height, the prediction is more precise but not more accurate. Comparing hindcast evaluations, better predictive skill was found when predicting dune height (0.8) compared with shoreline change (0.6). The skill depends on the level of detail of the model and we identify an optimized model that has high skill and minimal overfitting. The predictive model can be implemented with a range of forecast scenarios, and we illustrate the impacts of a higher future sea-level. This scenario shows that the shoreline change becomes increasingly erosional and more uncertain. Predicted dune heights are lower and the dune height uncertainty decreases.

Salivary Cytokine Levels and Oral Mucositis in Head and Neck Cancer Patients Treated With Chemotherapy and Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bossi, Paolo, E-mail: Paolo.bossi@istitutotumori.mi.it; Bergamini, Cristiana; Miceli, Rosalba

Purpose: We assessed the presence of salivary cytokines, their modulation during chemoradiation therapy (CTRT), and their association with oral mucositis severity in patients with head and neck cancer (HNC). Methods and Materials: The present prospective observational study enrolled 55 patients with locally advanced HNC requiring CTRT. We also studied 10 healthy volunteers and 10 patients with other cancers. The salivary levels of 13 cytokines were analyzed. We constructed a cytokine predictive score of oral mucositis severity. Results: The baseline salivary cytokine levels were not associated with the severity of treatment-induced oral mucositis. The cytokine levels overall increased during treatment, especiallymore » in patients with worse mucositis. In particular, on univariable analysis, an increase of interleukin (IL)-1β (area under the curve [AUC] 0.733; P=.009), IL-6 (AUC 0.746; P=.005), and tumor necrosis factor-α (AUC 0.710; P=.005) at the third week of treatment was significantly associated with the development of severe oral mucositis. On multivariable analysis, the predictive score based on the IL-1β and IL-6 changes from baseline to week 3 was an early strong predictor of higher grade oral mucositis. Conclusions: The treatment of HNC patients with concurrent CTRT induces a significant increase in the salivary levels of IL-1β, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor-α, all positively associated with the severity of mucosal toxicity. A greater increase of IL-1β and IL-6 3 weeks after treatment initiation is predictive of worse oral mucositis, representing a potential tool for the early identification of patients at risk.« less

Comparing the Levels of Acute-Phase Reactants Between Smoker and Nonsmoker Diabetic Patients: More Predicted Risk for Cardiovascular Diseases in Smoker Compared to Nonsmoker Diabetics.

PubMed

Rezaei-Adl, Sepideh; Ghahroudi Tali, Arash; Saffar, Hiva; Rajabiani, Afsaneh; Abdollahi, Alireza

2017-09-01

 Due to a close link between cardiovascular disorders and increased acute phase responses, it is now proposed the relation of total sialic acid (TSA) and C Reactive Protein (CRP) as main components of acute phase proteins and cardiovascular risk profiles such as diabetes mellitus and smoking. We hypothesized that the elevation in the level of TSA along with other prototype acute phase reactants such as CRP is expected more in the coexistence of diabetes and smoking than in diabetes mellitus alone. Ninety diabetic patients were randomly selected and entered into this case-control study. Using block randomization method, the patients were randomly assigned into smokers (n=45) and nonsmokers (n=45). A group of ten healthy individuals was also included as the control. The serum levels of TSA, CRP, iron, and hemoglobin were measured by the specific techniques. Comparing laboratory parameters across the three groups indicated significantly higher levels of TSA and CRP in smoker diabetics as compared to non-smoker diabetics and the healthy controls, while there was no difference in other parameters including serum iron and hemoglobin. A significant positive correlation was also revealed between TCA and CRP (r=0.324, P=0.030), but no significant association was found between other parameters. In the background of smoking, increasing the level of both TSA and CRP is predicted more than the existence of diabetes mellitus alone. In fact, the increase in these biomarkers is more predictable in smoker than in nonsmoker diabetics. This finding emphasizes the increased risk for cardiovascular disorders in smoker compared to non-smoker diabetics.

Multivariate prediction of motor diagnosis in Huntington's disease: 12 years of PREDICT-HD.

PubMed

Long, Jeffrey D; Paulsen, Jane S

2015-10-01

It is well known in Huntington's disease that cytosine-adenine-guanine expansion and age at study entry are predictive of the timing of motor diagnosis. The goal of this study was to assess whether additional motor, imaging, cognitive, functional, psychiatric, and demographic variables measured at study entry increased the ability to predict the risk of motor diagnosis over 12 years. One thousand seventy-eight Huntington's disease gene-expanded carriers (64% female) from the Neurobiological Predictors of Huntington's Disease study were followed up for up to 12 y (mean = 5, standard deviation = 3.3) covering 2002 to 2014. No one had a motor diagnosis at study entry, but 225 (21%) carriers prospectively received a motor diagnosis. Analysis was performed with random survival forests, which is a machine learning method for right-censored data. Adding 34 variables along with cytosine-adenine-guanine and age substantially increased predictive accuracy relative to cytosine-adenine-guanine and age alone. Adding six of the common motor and cognitive variables (total motor score, diagnostic confidence level, Symbol Digit Modalities Test, three Stroop tests) resulted in lower predictive accuracy than the full set, but still had twice the 5-y predictive accuracy than when using cytosine-adenine-guanine and age alone. Additional analysis suggested interactions and nonlinear effects that were characterized in a post hoc Cox regression model. Measurement of clinical variables can substantially increase the accuracy of predicting motor diagnosis over and above cytosine-adenine-guanine and age (and their interaction). Estimated probabilities can be used to characterize progression level and aid in future studies' sample selection. © 2015 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Tumour necrosis factor-α/etanercept complexes in serum predict long-term efficacy of etanercept treatment in seronegative rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Berthold, E; Månsson, B; Gullstrand, B; Geborek, P; Saxne, T; Bengtsson, A A; Kahn, R

2018-01-01

To study whether serum levels of tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), free or bound to etanercept, in biological-naïve adults with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) could predict the long-term efficacy of etanercept, measured as drug survival. We identified 145 biological-naïve patients with RA starting treatment with etanercept at the Department of Rheumatology, Skåne University Hospital (1999-2008), of whom 16 had seronegative and 129 seropositive RA. TNF-α in serum was quantified using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in samples from the onset of treatment and at 6 week follow-up. Drug survival time was used to evaluate the long-term efficacy of etanercept. Levels of TNF-α were significantly increased at follow-up compared to at the start. At the 6 week follow-up, circulating TNF-α mainly comprised TNF-α in complex with etanercept. Longer drug survival time correlated with increased TNF-α at 6 week follow-up in the patients with seronegative RA, but not in the seropositive patients. We demonstrated that levels of circulating TNF-α increased in almost all individuals after initiation of treatment with etanercept and that this increase mainly comprised TNF-α in complex with etanercept. More importantly, this increase may predict drug survival in adults with seronegative, but not seropositive, RA and suggests that measuring TNF-α/etanercept complexes in serum may be relevant in patients with seronegative RA.

Climate change -- Its impacts on Bangladesh

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sobhan, M.A.

1994-12-31

Predictions regarding the possible effects of global warming on Bangladesh`s climate are uncertain. However, the predictions for 2030 made by four General Circulation Models all suggest that there might be increased precipitation, with estimates ranging between 5 and 100% increases in rainfall. Increases of these magnitudes, if they were to occur, would have significant implications for agriculture, flooding, river sediment loads, and flood protection works. Increased flooding of the coastal areas of countries like Bangladesh is a possibility, and enormous health and economic distress and human suffering may follow. With the change in temperature, there may be unpredictable change inmore » bacterial and viral morphology with health hazards of unpredictable limits. It has been estimated that a 100 cm rise in sea level in the Bay of Bengal would result in 12--18% of land areas of Bangladesh being lost to the sea, including most of the Sundarbans. Although it is difficult to predict the timing and magnitude of all the global changes including sea-level rise, climate change, etc., it is anticipated that one of the most serious consequence for Bangladesh would be the reduction of already minimal land: person ratio and consequently exacerbating pressure on the remaining natural resources. Bangladesh is in favor of an international agreement for assistance to vulnerable countries like Bangladesh to take necessary preparations and adopt measures to survive a sea-level rise, climate change, increased flooding, and more frequent storm surges.« less

Urine Trefoil Factors as Prognostic Biomarkers in Chronic Kidney Disease.

PubMed

Yamanari, Toshio; Sugiyama, Hitoshi; Tanaka, Keiko; Morinaga, Hiroshi; Kitagawa, Masashi; Onishi, Akifumi; Ogawa-Akiyama, Ayu; Kano, Yuzuki; Mise, Koki; Ohmoto, Yasukazu; Shikata, Kenichi; Wada, Jun

2018-01-01

Trefoil factor family (TFF) peptides are increased in serum and urine in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, whether the levels of TFF predict the progression of CKD remains to be elucidated. We determined the TFF levels using peptide-specific ELISA in spot urine samples and performed a prospective cohort study. The association between the levels of urine TFFs and other urine biomarkers as well as the renal prognosis was analyzed in 216 CKD patients (mean age: 53.7 years, 47.7% female, 56.9% with chronic glomerulonephritis, and mean eGFR: 58.5 ml/min/1.73 m 2 ). The urine TFF1 and TFF3 levels significantly increased with the progression of CKD stages, but not the urine TFF2 levels. The TFF1 and TFF3 peptide levels predicted the progression of CKD ≥ stage 3b by ROC analysis (AUC 0.750 and 0.879, resp.); however, TFF3 alone predicted CKD progression in a multivariate logistic regression analysis (odds ratio 3.854, 95% confidence interval 1.316-11.55). The Kaplan-Meier survival curves demonstrated that patients with a higher TFF1 and TFF3 alone, or in combination with macroalbuminuria, had a significantly worse renal prognosis. The data suggested that urine TFF peptides are associated with renal progression and the outcomes in patients with CKD.

Urine Trefoil Factors as Prognostic Biomarkers in Chronic Kidney Disease

PubMed Central

Yamanari, Toshio; Tanaka, Keiko; Morinaga, Hiroshi; Kitagawa, Masashi; Onishi, Akifumi; Ogawa-Akiyama, Ayu; Kano, Yuzuki; Mise, Koki; Ohmoto, Yasukazu; Shikata, Kenichi

2018-01-01

Introduction Trefoil factor family (TFF) peptides are increased in serum and urine in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, whether the levels of TFF predict the progression of CKD remains to be elucidated. Methods We determined the TFF levels using peptide-specific ELISA in spot urine samples and performed a prospective cohort study. The association between the levels of urine TFFs and other urine biomarkers as well as the renal prognosis was analyzed in 216 CKD patients (mean age: 53.7 years, 47.7% female, 56.9% with chronic glomerulonephritis, and mean eGFR: 58.5 ml/min/1.73 m2). Results The urine TFF1 and TFF3 levels significantly increased with the progression of CKD stages, but not the urine TFF2 levels. The TFF1 and TFF3 peptide levels predicted the progression of CKD ≥ stage 3b by ROC analysis (AUC 0.750 and 0.879, resp.); however, TFF3 alone predicted CKD progression in a multivariate logistic regression analysis (odds ratio 3.854, 95% confidence interval 1.316–11.55). The Kaplan-Meier survival curves demonstrated that patients with a higher TFF1 and TFF3 alone, or in combination with macroalbuminuria, had a significantly worse renal prognosis. Conclusion The data suggested that urine TFF peptides are associated with renal progression and the outcomes in patients with CKD. PMID:29850501

As assessment of power system vulnerability to release of carbon fibers during commercial aviation accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larocque, G. R.

1980-01-01

The vulnerability of a power distribution system in Bedford and Lexington, Massachusetts to power outages as a result of exposure to carbon fibers released in a commercial aviation accident in 1993 was examined. Possible crash scenarios at Logan Airport based on current operational data and estimated carbon fiber usage levels were used to predict exposure levels and occurrence probabilities. The analysis predicts a mean time between carbon fiber induced power outages of 2300 years with an expected annual consequence of 0.7 persons losing power. In comparison to historical outage data for the system, this represents a 0.007% increase in outage rate and 0.07% increase in consequence.

Predictive accuracy of a ground-water model--Lessons from a postaudit

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konikow, Leonard F.

1986-01-01

Hydrogeologic studies commonly include the development, calibration, and application of a deterministic simulation model. To help assess the value of using such models to make predictions, a postaudit was conducted on a previously studied area in the Salt River and lower Santa Cruz River basins in central Arizona. A deterministic, distributed-parameter model of the ground-water system in these alluvial basins was calibrated by Anderson (1968) using about 40 years of data (1923–64). The calibrated model was then used to predict future water-level changes during the next 10 years (1965–74). Examination of actual water-level changes in 77 wells from 1965–74 indicates a poor correlation between observed and predicted water-level changes. The differences have a mean of 73 ft that is, predicted declines consistently exceeded those observed and a standard deviation of 47 ft. The bias in the predicted water-level change can be accounted for by the large error in the assumed total pumpage during the prediction period. However, the spatial distribution of errors in predicted water-level change does not correlate with the spatial distribution of errors in pumpage. Consequently, the lack of precision probably is not related only to errors in assumed pumpage, but may indicate the presence of other sources of error in the model, such as the two-dimensional representation of a three-dimensional problem or the lack of consideration of land-subsidence processes. This type of postaudit is a valuable method of verifying a model, and an evaluation of predictive errors can provide an increased understanding of the system and aid in assessing the value of undertaking development of a revised model.

Multi-level obstruction in obstructive sleep apnoea: prevalence, severity and predictive factors.

PubMed

Phua, C Q; Yeo, W X; Su, C; Mok, P K H

2017-11-01

To characterise multi-level obstruction in terms of prevalence, obstructive sleep apnoea severity and predictive factors, and to collect epidemiological data on upper airway morphology in obstructive sleep apnoea patients. Retrospective review of 250 obstructive sleep apnoea patients. On clinical examination, 171 patients (68.4 per cent) had multi-level obstruction, 49 (19.6 per cent) had single-level obstruction and 30 (12 per cent) showed no obstruction. Within each category of obstructive sleep apnoea severity, multi-level obstruction was more prevalent. Multi-level obstruction was associated with severe obstructive sleep apnoea (more than 30 events per hour) (p = 0.001). Obstructive sleep apnoea severity increased with the number of obstruction sites (correlation coefficient = 0.303, p < 0.001). Multi-level obstruction was more likely in younger (p = 0.042), male (p = 0.045) patients, with high body mass index (more than 30 kg/m2) (p < 0.001). Palatal (p = 0.004), tongue (p = 0.026) and lateral pharyngeal wall obstructions (p = 0.006) were associated with severe obstructive sleep apnoea. Multi-level obstruction is more prevalent in obstructive sleep apnoea and is associated with increased severity. Obstruction at certain anatomical levels contributes more towards obstructive sleep apnoea severity.

Evaluation of Variable-Depth Liner Configurations for Increased Broadband Noise Reduction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, M. G.; Watson, W. R.; Nark, D. M.; Howerton, B. M.

2015-01-01

This paper explores the effects of variable-depth geometry on the amount of noise reduction that can be achieved with acoustic liners. Results for two variable-depth liners tested in the NASA Langley Grazing Flow Impedance Tube demonstrate significant broadband noise reduction. An impedance prediction model is combined with two propagation codes to predict corresponding sound pressure level profiles over the length of the Grazing Flow Impedance Tube. The comparison of measured and predicted sound pressure level profiles is sufficiently favorable to support use of these tools for investigation of a number of proposed variable-depth liner configurations. Predicted sound pressure level profiles for these proposed configurations reveal a number of interesting features. Liner orientation clearly affects the sound pressure level profile over the length of the liner, but the effect on the total attenuation is less pronounced. The axial extent of attenuation at an individual frequency continues well beyond the location where the liner depth is optimally tuned to the quarter-wavelength of that frequency. The sound pressure level profile is significantly affected by the way in which variable-depth segments are distributed over the length of the liner. Given the broadband noise reduction capability for these liner configurations, further development of impedance prediction models and propagation codes specifically tuned for this application is warranted.

The effect of exposure duration on the subjective discomfort of aircraft cabin noise.

PubMed

Huang, Yu; Jiang, Weikang

2017-01-01

The time dependency for subjective responses to noise has been a controversial question over many years. For durations of up to 10 min, the discomfort produced by three levels of noise (ie 60, 70 and 80 dBA) was investigated in this experimental study to determine the relation of discomfort to the time duration of noise. The rate of increase in discomfort with increasing duration was 1.5 dB per doubling of exposure duration, whereas it is currently assumed to be 3 dB per doubling of exposure duration. The sound dose level (SDL) was proposed to predict the discomfort caused by noise of long duration. The combination of SDL and vibration dose value (VDV) provided more consistent estimates of the equivalent comfort contours between noise and vibration over durations from 2 to 32 s than the combination of sound exposure level and VDV or that of sound pressure level and r.m.s. acceleration. Practitioner Summary: The discomfort produced by noise of long duration can be well predicted from a new definition of sound dose level, where the discomfort increases at 1.5 dB per doubling of exposure duration.

Natural selection and the evolution of reproductive effort.

PubMed

Hirshfield, M F; Tinkle, D W

1975-06-01

Reproductive effort is defined as that proportion of the total energy budget of an organism that is devoted to reproductive processes. Reproductive effort at a given age within a species will be selected to maximize reproductive value at that age. Reproductive effort is not directly affected by changes in juvenile survivorship, nor necessarily reduced by an increase in adult survivorship. Selection for high levels of reproductive effort should occur when extrinsic adult mortality is high, in environments with constant juvenile survivorship, and in good years for juvenile survivorship in a variable environment, provided that the quality of the year is predictable by adults. Data necessary to measure reproductive effort and to understand how selection results in different levels of effort between individuals and species are discussed. We make several predictions about the effect of increased resource availability on reproductive effort. The empirical bases for testing these predictions are presently inadequate, and we consider data on energy budgets of organisms in nature to be essential for such test. We also conclude that variance in life table parameters must be known in detail to understand the selective bases of levels of reproductive effort.

Catastrophic subsidence: An environmental hazard, shelby county, Alabama

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamoreaux, Philip E.; Newton, J. G.

1986-03-01

Induced sinkholes (catastrophic subsidence) are those caused or accelerated by human activities These sinkholes commonly result from a water level decline due to pumpage Construction activities in a cone of depression greatly increases the likelihood of sinkhole occurrence Almost all occur where cavities develop in unconsolidated deposits overlying solution openings in carbonate rocks. Triggering mechanisms resulting from water level declines are (1) loss of buoyant support of the water, (2) increased gradient and water velocity, (3) water-level fluctuations, and (4) induced recharge Construction activities triggering sinkhole development include ditching, removing overburden, drilling, movement of heavy equipment, blasting and the diversion and impoundment of drainage Triggering mechanisms include piping, saturation, and loading Induced sinkholes resulting from human water development/management activities are most predictable in a youthful karst area impacted by groundwater withdrawals Shape, depth, and timing of catastrophic subsidence can be predicted in general terms Remote sensing techniques are used in prediction of locations of catastrophic subsidence. This provides a basis for design and relocation of structures such as a gas pipeline, dam, or building Utilization of techniques and a case history of the relocation of a pipeline are described

Prediction of micropollutant elimination during ozonation of a hospital wastewater effluent.

PubMed

Lee, Yunho; Kovalova, Lubomira; McArdell, Christa S; von Gunten, Urs

2014-11-01

Determining optimal ozone doses for organic micropollutant elimination during wastewater ozonation is challenged by the presence of a large number of structurally diverse micropollutants for varying wastewater matrice compositions. A chemical kinetics approach based on ozone and hydroxyl radical (·OH) rate constant and measurements of ozone and ·OH exposures is proposed to predict the micropollutant elimination efficiency. To further test and validate the chemical kinetics approach, the elimination efficiency of 25 micropollutants present in a hospital wastewater effluent from a pilot-scale membrane bioreactor (MBR) were determined at pH 7.0 and 8.5 in bench-scale experiments with ozone alone and ozone combined with H2O2 as a function of DOC-normalized specific ozone doses (gO3/gDOC). Furthermore, ozone and ·OH exposures, ·OH yields, and ·OH consumption rates were determined. Consistent eliminations as a function of gO3/gDOC were observed for micropollutants with similar ozone and ·OH rate constants. They could be classified into five groups having characteristic elimination patterns. By increasing the pH from 7.0 to 8.5, the elimination levels increased for the amine-containing micropollutants due to the increased apparent second-order ozone rate constants while decreased for most micropollutants due to the diminished ozone or ·OH exposures. Increased ·OH quenching by effluent organic matter and carbonate with increasing pH was responsible for the lower ·OH exposures. Upon H2O2 addition, the elimination levels of the micropollutants slightly increased at pH 7 (<8%) while decreased considerably at pH 8.5 (up to 31%). The elimination efficiencies of the selected micropollutants could be predicted based on their ozone and ·OH rate constants (predicted or taken from literature) and the determined ozone and ·OH exposures. Reasonable agreements between the measured and predicted elimination levels were found, demonstrating that the proposed chemical kinetics method can be used for a generalized prediction of micropollutant elimination during wastewater ozonation. Out of 67 analyzed micropollutants, 56 were present in the tested hospital wastewater effluent. Two-thirds of the present micropollutants were found to be ozone-reactive and efficiently eliminated at low ozone doses (e.g., >80% for gO3/gDOC = 0.5). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seeing Eye to Eye: Predicting Teacher-Student Agreement on Classroom Social Networks

PubMed Central

Neal, Jennifer Watling; Cappella, Elise; Wagner, Caroline; Atkins, Marc S.

2010-01-01

This study examines the association between classroom characteristics and teacher-student agreement in perceptions of students’ classroom peer networks. Social network, peer nomination, and observational data were collected from a sample of second through fourth grade teachers (N=33) and students (N=669) in 33 classrooms across five high poverty urban schools. Results demonstrate that variation in teacher-student agreement on the structure of students’ peer networks can be explained, in part, by developmental factors and classroom characteristics. Developmental increases in network density partially mediated the positive relationship between grade level and teacher-student agreement. Larger class sizes and higher levels of normative aggressive behavior resulted in lower levels of teacher-student agreement. Teachers’ levels of classroom organization had mixed influences, with behavior management negatively predicting agreement, and productivity positively predicting agreement. These results underscore the importance of the classroom context in shaping teacher and student perceptions of peer networks. PMID:21666768

Composite Stress Rupture: A New Reliability Model Based on Strength Decay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeder, James R.

2012-01-01

A model is proposed to estimate reliability for stress rupture of composite overwrap pressure vessels (COPVs) and similar composite structures. This new reliability model is generated by assuming a strength degradation (or decay) over time. The model suggests that most of the strength decay occurs late in life. The strength decay model will be shown to predict a response similar to that predicted by a traditional reliability model for stress rupture based on tests at a single stress level. In addition, the model predicts that even though there is strength decay due to proof loading, a significant overall increase in reliability is gained by eliminating any weak vessels, which would fail early. The model predicts that there should be significant periods of safe life following proof loading, because time is required for the strength to decay from the proof stress level to the subsequent loading level. Suggestions for testing the strength decay reliability model have been made. If the strength decay reliability model predictions are shown through testing to be accurate, COPVs may be designed to carry a higher level of stress than is currently allowed, which will enable the production of lighter structures

Expansion of Coverage under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and Primary Care Utilization

PubMed Central

Hofer, Adam N; Abraham, Jean Marie; Moscovice, Ira

2011-01-01

Context: Provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (PPACA) expand Medicaid to all individuals in families earning less than 133 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL) and make available subsidies to uninsured lower-income Americans (133 to 400 percent of FPL) without access to employer-based coverage to purchase insurance in new exchanges. Since primary care physicians typically serve as the point of entry into the health care delivery system, an adequate supply of them is critical to meeting the anticipated increase in demand for medical care resulting from the expansion of coverage. This article provides state-level estimates of the anticipated increases in primary care utilization given the PPACA's provisions for expanded coverage. Methods: Using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, this article estimates a multivariate regression model of annual primary care utilization. Using the model estimates and state-level information regarding the number of uninsured, it predicts, by state, the change in primary care visits expected from the expanded coverage. Finally, the article predicts the number of primary care physicians needed to accommodate this change in utilization. Findings: This expanded coverage is predicted to increase by 2019 the number of annual primary care visits between 15.07 million and 24.26 million. Assuming stable levels of physicians’ productivity, between 4,307 and 6,940 additional primary care physicians would be needed to accommodate this increase. Conclusions: The PPACA's health insurance expansion parameters are expected to significantly increase the use of primary care. Two strategies that policymakers may consider are creating stronger financial incentives to attract medical school students to primary care and changing the delivery of care in ways that lead to operational improvements, higher throughput, and better quality of care. PMID:21418313

Transcriptional bursting explains the noise–versus–mean relationship in mRNA and protein levels

DOE PAGES

Dar, Roy; Shaffer, Sydney M.; Singh, Abhyudai; ...

2016-07-28

Recent analysis demonstrates that the HIV-1 Long Terminal Repeat (HIV LTR) promoter exhibits a range of possible transcriptional burst sizes and frequencies for any mean-expression level. However, these results have also been interpreted as demonstrating that cell-tocell expression variability (noise) and mean are uncorrelated, a significant deviation from previous results. Here, we re-examine the available mRNA and protein abundance data for the HIV LTR and find that noise in mRNA and protein expression scales inversely with the mean along analytically predicted transcriptional burst-size manifolds. We then experimentally perturb transcriptional activity to test a prediction of the multiple burst-size model: thatmore » increasing burst frequency will cause mRNA noise to decrease along given burst-size lines as mRNA levels increase. In conclusion, the data show that mRNA and protein noise decrease as mean expression increases, supporting the canonical inverse correlation between noise and mean.« less

Hunger games: fluctuations in blood glucose levels influence support for social welfare.

PubMed

Aarøe, Lene; Petersen, Michael Bang

2013-12-01

Social-welfare policies are a modern instantiation of a phenomenon that has pervaded human evolutionary history: resource sharing. Ancestrally, food was a key shared resource in situations of temporary hunger. If evolved human psychology continues to shape how individuals think about current, evolutionarily novel conditions, this invites the prediction that attitudes regarding welfare politics are influenced by short-term fluctuations in hunger. Using blood glucose levels as a physiological indicator of hunger, we tested this prediction in a study in which participants were randomly assigned to conditions in which they consumed soft drinks containing either carbohydrates or an artificial sweetener. Analyses showed that participants with experimentally induced low blood glucose levels expressed stronger support for social welfare. Using an incentivized measure of actual sharing behavior (the dictator game), we further demonstrated that this increased support for social welfare does not translate into genuinely increased sharing motivations. Rather, we suggest that it is "cheap talk" aimed at increasing the sharing efforts of other individuals.

Predicting normal tissue radiosensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickson, Jeanette

Two methods of predicting normal cell radiosensitivity were investigated in different patient groups. Plasma transforming growth factor beta one (TGFbeta1) levels were measured by ELISA, using a commercially available kit. Residual DNA double strand breaks were measured in normal epidermal fibroblasts following 150 Gy. After allowing 24 hours for repair, the DNA damage was assayed using pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Pretreatment plasma TGFbeta1 levels were investigated retrospectively in patients with carcinoma of the cervix in relation to tumour control and late morbidity following radiotherapy. Plasma TGFbeta1 levels increased with increasing disease stage. They also correlated with two other known measures of tumour burden i.e. plasma levels of carcinoma antigen 125 (CA125) and tissue polypeptide antigen (TPA). Elevated pretreatment plasma TGFbeta1 levels predicted for a poor outcome both in terms of local control and overall survival. Plasma TGF?l levels did not predict for the development of radiotherapy morbidity of any grade. In conclusion pre-treatment plasma TGFbeta1 levels predict for tumour burden and tumour outcome in patients with carcinoma of the cervix. Changes in plasma TGFbeta1 levels measured prospectively may predict for radiation morbidity and should be investigated. A prospective study was undertaken in patients with carcinoma of the head and neck region. Changes in plasma TGFbeta1 levels between the start and the end of a course of radical radiotherapy were investigated in relation to the development of acute radiation toxicity. Patients were categorised according to the pattern of response of their TGFbeta1 levels over the course of their treatment. Those patients whose TGFbeta1 levels decreased, but did not normalise during radiotherapy were assigned to category 2. Category 2 predicted for a severe acute reaction, as measured using the LENT SOMA score, with a sensitivity of 33% and a specificity of 100%. The positive predictive value of was 100%. As part of the validation of the commercially available TGFbeta1 kit, samples were obtained from sixty-six normal volunteers with a wide age distribution. This large series demonstrated an unexpected age-related rise in TGFbeta1 levels that had not been previously demonstrated in the literature. In breast carcinoma patients, two assays were performed retrospectively. Both pre-treatment plasma TGFbeta1 levels and residual DNA double strand breaks (measured using PFGE) were correlated with clinical outcome. Outcome was in the form of a total LENT SOMA score and late radiation fibrosis score, as measured by clinical palpation. No relationship was demonstrated between either pretreatment TGFbeta1 levels or residual DNA double strand breaks and late radiotherapy outcome. This failed to validate a similar series of patients investigated in the same department using the same technique. This work has shown that measurement of residual DNA double strand breaks using PFGE is not sufficiently robust to be used clinically as a predictor of normal tissue radioresponse. In conclusion, changes in TGFbeta1 plasma levels occurring over time during a course of radical radiotherapy, hold promise for the development of a rapid test of intrinsic radiosensitivity.

Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Feng, Leyang

2017-07-13

Understanding historical changes in flood damage and the underlying mechanisms is critical for predicting future changes for better adaptations. In this study, a detailed assessment of flood damage for 1950–1999 is conducted at the state level in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Geospatial datasets on possible influencing factors are then developed by synthesizing natural hazards, population, wealth, cropland and urban area to explore the relations with flood damage. A considerable increase in flood damage in CONUS is recorded for the study period which is well correlated with hazards. Comparably, runoff indexed hazards simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) modelmore » can explain a larger portion of flood damage variations than precipitation in 84% of the states. Cropland is identified as an important factor contributing to increased flood damage in central US while urbanland exhibits positive and negative relations with total flood damage and damage per unit wealth in 20 and 16 states, respectively. Altogether, flood damage in 34 out of 48 investigated states can be predicted at the 90% confidence level. In extreme cases, ~76% of flood damage variations can be explained in some states, highlighting the potential of future flood damage prediction based on climate change and socioeconomic scenarios.« less

Quantitative Protein Topography Analysis and High-Resolution Structure Prediction Using Hydroxyl Radical Labeling and Tandem-Ion Mass Spectrometry (MS)*

PubMed Central

Kaur, Parminder; Kiselar, Janna; Yang, Sichun; Chance, Mark R.

2015-01-01

Hydroxyl radical footprinting based MS for protein structure assessment has the goal of understanding ligand induced conformational changes and macromolecular interactions, for example, protein tertiary and quaternary structure, but the structural resolution provided by typical peptide-level quantification is limiting. In this work, we present experimental strategies using tandem-MS fragmentation to increase the spatial resolution of the technique to the single residue level to provide a high precision tool for molecular biophysics research. Overall, in this study we demonstrated an eightfold increase in structural resolution compared with peptide level assessments. In addition, to provide a quantitative analysis of residue based solvent accessibility and protein topography as a basis for high-resolution structure prediction; we illustrate strategies of data transformation using the relative reactivity of side chains as a normalization strategy and predict side-chain surface area from the footprinting data. We tested the methods by examination of Ca+2-calmodulin showing highly significant correlations between surface area and side-chain contact predictions for individual side chains and the crystal structure. Tandem ion based hydroxyl radical footprinting-MS provides quantitative high-resolution protein topology information in solution that can fill existing gaps in structure determination for large proteins and macromolecular complexes. PMID:25687570

Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Feng, Leyang

Understanding historical changes in flood damage and the underlying mechanisms is critical for predicting future changes for better adaptations. In this study, a detailed assessment of flood damage for 1950–1999 is conducted at the state level in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Geospatial datasets on possible influencing factors are then developed by synthesizing natural hazards, population, wealth, cropland and urban area to explore the relations with flood damage. A considerable increase in flood damage in CONUS is recorded for the study period which is well correlated with hazards. Comparably, runoff indexed hazards simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) modelmore » can explain a larger portion of flood damage variations than precipitation in 84% of the states. Cropland is identified as an important factor contributing to increased flood damage in central US while urbanland exhibits positive and negative relations with total flood damage and damage per unit wealth in 20 and 16 states, respectively. Altogether, flood damage in 34 out of 48 investigated states can be predicted at the 90% confidence level. In extreme cases, ~76% of flood damage variations can be explained in some states, highlighting the potential of future flood damage prediction based on climate change and socioeconomic scenarios.« less

Anxiety and stress can predict pain perception following a cognitive stress.

PubMed

Hoeger Bement, Marie; Weyer, Andy; Keller, Manda; Harkins, April L; Hunter, Sandra K

2010-08-04

Hoeger Bement, M.K., A. Weyer, M. Keller, A. Harkins, and S.K. Hunter. Anxiety and stress can predict pain perception following a cognitive stressor. PHYSIOL BEHAV 000-000. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of a cognitive stressor on pain perception and determine individual characteristics that may predict the pain response. Twenty-five subjects participated in three sessions: one familiarization and two experimental. The experimental sessions involved measurement of pain perception before and after 1) mental math tasks (stressor session) and 2) quiet rest (control session). Pain threshold and ratings were assessed with a mechanical noxious stimulus. Changes in stress and anxiety were examined with self-reported and physiological measures including questionnaires, visual analogue scales, and salivary cortisol levels. During the control session, stress and anxiety decreased and pain reports remain unchanged. During the stressor session, stress and anxiety increased and pain reports were variable among subjects. Based on the pain response to mental math, subjects were divided into three groups (increase, decrease or no change in pain). The increase-pain group (n=8) had lower baseline stress and anxiety, lower baseline pain reports, and large anxiety response following the mental math. In contrast, the decrease-pain group (n=9) had higher baseline stress and anxiety levels, higher baseline pain reports, and a large increase in cortisol levels. Thus, the differential response in the changes in pain perception was related to anxiety and stress levels prior to and during the cognitive stressor, indicating that psychosocial characteristics can help determine the stress-induced pain response. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relations among affect, abstinence motivation and confidence, and daily smoking lapse risk.

PubMed

Minami, Haruka; Yeh, Vivian M; Bold, Krysten W; Chapman, Gretchen B; McCarthy, Danielle E

2014-06-01

This study tested the hypothesis that changes in momentary affect, abstinence motivation, and confidence would predict lapse risk over the next 12-24 hr using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) data from smokers attempting to quit smoking. One hundred and three adult, daily, treatment-seeking smokers recorded their momentary affect, motivation to quit, abstinence confidence, and smoking behaviors in near real time with multiple EMA reports per day using electronic diaries postquit. Multilevel models indicated that initial levels of negative affect were associated with smoking, even after controlling for earlier smoking status, and that short-term increases in negative affect predicted lapses up to 12, but not 24, hr later. Positive affect had significant effects on subsequent abstinence confidence, but not motivation to quit. High levels of motivation appeared to reduce increases in lapse risk that occur over hours although momentary changes in confidence did not predict lapse risk over 12 hr. Negative affect had short-lived effects on lapse risk, whereas higher levels of motivation protected against the risk of lapsing that accumulates over hours. An increase in positive affect was associated with greater confidence to quit, but such changes in confidence did not reduce short-term lapse risk, contrary to expectations. Relations observed among affect, cognitions, and lapse seem to depend critically on the timing of assessments.

Meta-Prediction of the Effect of Methylenetetrahydrofolate Reductase Polymorphisms and Air Pollution on Alzheimer's Disease Risk.

PubMed

Wu, Suh-Mian; Chen, Zhao-Feng; Young, Lufei; Shiao, S Pamela K

2017-01-11

Background : Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a significant public health issue. AD has been linked with methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase ( MTHFR ) C677T polymorphism, but the findings have been inconsistent. The purpose of this meta-predictive analysis is to examine the associations between MTHFR polymorphisms and epigenetic factors, including air pollution, with AD risk using big data analytics approaches. Methods and Results : Forty-three studies (44 groups) were identified by searching various databases. MTHFR C677T TT and CT genotypes had significant associations with AD risk in all racial populations (RR = 1.13, p = 0.0047; and RR = 1.12, p < 0.0001 respectively). Meta-predictive analysis showed significant increases of percentages of MTHFR C677T polymorphism with increased air pollution levels in both AD case group and control group ( p = 0.0021-0.0457); with higher percentages of TT and CT genotypes in the AD case group than that in the control group with increased air pollution levels. Conclusions : The impact of MTHFR C677T polymorphism on susceptibility to AD was modified by level of air pollution. Future studies are needed to further examine the effects of gene-environment interactions including air pollution on AD risk for world populations.

Meta-Prediction of the Effect of Methylenetetrahydrofolate Reductase Polymorphisms and Air Pollution on Alzheimer’s Disease Risk

PubMed Central

Wu, Suh-Mian; Chen, Zhao-Feng; Young, Lufei; Shiao, S. Pamela K.

2017-01-01

Background: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a significant public health issue. AD has been linked with methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T polymorphism, but the findings have been inconsistent. The purpose of this meta-predictive analysis is to examine the associations between MTHFR polymorphisms and epigenetic factors, including air pollution, with AD risk using big data analytics approaches. Methods and Results: Forty-three studies (44 groups) were identified by searching various databases. MTHFR C677T TT and CT genotypes had significant associations with AD risk in all racial populations (RR = 1.13, p = 0.0047; and RR = 1.12, p < 0.0001 respectively). Meta-predictive analysis showed significant increases of percentages of MTHFR C677T polymorphism with increased air pollution levels in both AD case group and control group (p = 0.0021–0.0457); with higher percentages of TT and CT genotypes in the AD case group than that in the control group with increased air pollution levels. Conclusions: The impact of MTHFR C677T polymorphism on susceptibility to AD was modified by level of air pollution. Future studies are needed to further examine the effects of gene-environment interactions including air pollution on AD risk for world populations. PMID:28085050

Relationships between testosterone levels and cognition in patients with Alzheimer disease and nondemented elderly men.

PubMed

Seidl, Jennifer N Travis; Massman, Paul J

2015-03-01

Previous research suggests that low levels of testosterone may be associated with the development of Alzheimer disease (AD), as well as poorer performance on certain neuropsychological tests and increased risk of depression. This study utilized data from 61 nondemented older men and 68 men with probable AD. Testosterone levels did not differ between the groups. Regression analyses in men with AD revealed that testosterone levels did not significantly predict performance on neuropsychological tests or a measure of depression. Among controls, testosterone levels predicted estimated premorbid verbal IQ and performance on a verbal fluency test. Findings suggest that testosterone is not associated with most neuropsychological test performances in patients with AD. © The Author(s) 2014.

Modeling Tidal Wetland Resiliency in the Face of Predicted Accelerated Sea-Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schile, L. M.; Callaway, J.; Morris, J. T.; Kelly, M.

2014-12-01

Tidal wetland ecosystems are dynamic coastal habitats that, in California, often occur at the complex nexus of aquatic environments, diked and leveed baylands, and modified upland habitat. Because of their prime location and rich peat soil, many wetlands have been reduced, degraded, and/or destroyed, and yet their important role in carbon sequestration, nutrient and sediment filtering, and as habitat requires us to further examine their sustainability in light of predicted climate change. Predictions of climate change effects for the San Francisco Bay Estuary present a future with reduced summer freshwater input and increased sea levels. We examined the applicability and accuracy of the Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM), a zero-dimensional model that models organic and inorganic accretion rates under a given rate of sea-level rise. MEM was calibrated using data collected from salt and brackish marshes in the San Francisco Bay Estuary to examine wetland resiliency under a range of sea-level rise and suspended sediment concentration scenarios. At sea-level rise rates 100 cm/century and lower, wetlands remained vegetated. Once sea levels rise above 100 cm, marshes begin to lose ability to maintain elevation, and the presence of adjacent upland habitat becomes increasingly important for marsh migration. The negative effects of sea-level rise on elevations were compounded as suspended sediment concentrations decreased. Results from this study emphasize that the wetland landscape in the bay is threatened with rising sea levels, and there are a limited number of wetlands that will be able to migrate to higher ground as sea levels rise.

Exploring application of the Interpersonal-Psychological Theory of Suicidal Behaviour to self-injurious behaviour among women prisoners: Proposing a new model of understanding.

PubMed

Ireland, Jane L; York, Charlotte

2012-01-01

The current study examines the application of capacity, psychological distress, coping and personality to an understanding of self-injurious behaviour, with a specific focus on testing the Interpersonal-Psychological Theory of Suicidal Behaviour (IPTSB). One hundred and ninety women prisoners took part, completing a history questionnaire and measures of personality, coping styles and psychological distress. It was expected that self-injurious behaviour would be predicted by higher levels of emotional functioning difficulties, by an increased capacity to engage in such behaviours, by previous self-injurious behaviour, decreased levels of emotional stability and increased levels of emotional coping behaviour. Results supported the capacity component of the IPTSB, indicating that an increased history of self-injurious behaviour and of engagement in reckless behaviour were particular predictors. Increased psychological distress in some domains was also a predictor although the exact domain varied across the type of self-injurious engagement Increased levels of extraversion and decreased emotional coping predicted increased self-injurious engagement, although emotional coping only related to threats and cognition. The results point to the applicability of Interpersonal-Psychological Theory to understanding self-injurious behaviour and the importance of developing a revised model. The paper presents this in the form of the Integrated Model of Self-Injurious Activity. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

X-33 XRS-2200 Linear Aerospike Engine Sea Level Plume Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DAgostino, Mark G.; Lee, Young C.; Wang, Ten-See; Turner, Jim (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Wide band plume radiation data were collected during ten sea level tests of a single XRS-2200 engine at the NASA Stennis Space Center in 1999 and 2000. The XRS-2200 is a liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen fueled, gas generator cycle linear aerospike engine which develops 204,420 lbf thrust at sea level. Instrumentation consisted of six hemispherical radiometers and one narrow view radiometer. Test conditions varied from 100% to 57% power level (PL) and 6.0 to 4.5 oxidizer to fuel (O/F) ratio. Measured radiation rates generally increased with engine chamber pressure and mixture ratio. One hundred percent power level radiation data were compared to predictions made with the FDNS and GASRAD codes. Predicted levels ranged from 42% over to 7% under average test values.

Progression of chronic periodontitis can be predicted by the levels of Porphyromonas gingivalis and Treponema denticola in subgingival plaque.

PubMed

Byrne, S J; Dashper, S G; Darby, I B; Adams, G G; Hoffmann, B; Reynolds, E C

2009-12-01

Chronic periodontitis is an inflammatory disease of the supporting tissues of the teeth associated with bacteria. Diagnosis is achieved retrospectively by clinical observation of attachment loss. Predicting disease progression would allow for targeted preventive therapy. The aim of this study was to monitor disease progression in patients on a maintenance program and determine the levels of specific bacteria in subgingival plaque samples and then examine the ability of the clinical parameters of disease and levels of specific bacteria in the plaque samples to predict disease progression. During a 12-month longitudinal study of 41 subjects, 25 sites in 21 subjects experienced disease progression indicated by at least 2 mm of clinical attachment loss. Real-time polymerase chain reaction was used to determine the levels of Porphyromonas gingivalis, Treponema denticola, Tannerella forsythia, Fusobacterium nucleatum, and Prevotella intermedia in subgingival plaque samples. No clinical parameters were able to predict periodontal disease progression. In sites undergoing imminent periodontal disease progression within the next 3 months, significant partial correlations were found between P. gingivalis and T. forsythia (r = 0.55, P < 0.001) and T. denticola and T. forsythia (r = 0.43, P = 0.04). The odds of a site undergoing imminent periodontal disease progression increased with increasing levels of P. gingivalis and T. denticola. Monitoring the proportions of P. gingivalis and T. denticola in subgingival plaque has the potential to help identify sites at significant risk for progression of periodontitis, which would assist in the targeted treatment of disease.

Negative Self-Focused Cognitions Mediate the Effect of Trait Social Anxiety on State Anxiety

PubMed Central

Schulz, Stefan M.; Alpers, Georg W.; Hofmann, Stefan G.

2008-01-01

The cognitive model of social anxiety predicts that negative self-focused cognitions increase anxiety when anticipating social threat. To test this prediction, 36 individuals were asked to anticipate and perform a public speaking task. During anticipation, negative self-focused cognitions or relaxation were experimentally induced while self-reported anxiety, autonomic arousal (heart rate, heart rate variability, skin conductance level), and acoustic eye-blink startle response were assessed. As predicted, negative self-focused cognitions mediated the effects of trait social anxiety on self-reported anxiety and heart rate variability during negative anticipation. Furthermore, trait social anxiety predicted increased startle amplitudes. These findings support a central assumption of the cognitive model of social anxiety. PMID:18321469

A Bayesian network to predict vulnerability to sea-level rise: data report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert

2011-01-01

During the 21st century, sea-level rise is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, development, and infrastructure. Consequently, there has been an increased focus on developing modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate potential impacts to inform coastal management. This report provides the data that were used to develop and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian network designed to predict long-term shoreline change due to sea-level rise. The data include local rates of relative sea-level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline-change rate compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Vulnerability Index for the U.S. Atlantic coast. In this project, the Bayesian network is used to define relationships among driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal responses. Using this information, the Bayesian network is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline change in response to different future sea-level-rise scenarios.

Emotional Intelligence as a Predictor for Success in Online Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berenson, Robin; Boyles, Gary; Weaver, Ann

2008-01-01

As students increasingly opt for online classes, it becomes more important for administrators to predict levels of potential academic success. This study examined the intrinsic factors of emotional intelligence (EI) and personality to determine the extent to which they predict grade point average (GPA), a measure of academic success, among…

Full long-term design response analysis of a wave energy converter

DOE PAGES

Coe, Ryan G.; Michelen, Carlos; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey; ...

2017-09-21

Efficient design of wave energy converters requires an accurate understanding of expected loads and responses during the deployment lifetime of a device. A study has been conducted to better understand best-practices for prediction of design responses in a wave energy converter. A case-study was performed in which a simplified wave energy converter was analyzed to predict several important device design responses. The application and performance of a full long-term analysis, in which numerical simulations were used to predict the device response for a large number of distinct sea states, was studied. Environmental characterization and selection of sea states for thismore » analysis at the intended deployment site were performed using principle-components analysis. The full long-term analysis applied here was shown to be stable when implemented with a relatively low number of sea states and convergent with an increasing number of sea states. As the number of sea states utilized in the analysis was increased, predicted response levels did not change appreciably. Furthermore, uncertainty in the response levels was reduced as more sea states were utilized.« less

Full long-term design response analysis of a wave energy converter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coe, Ryan G.; Michelen, Carlos; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey

Efficient design of wave energy converters requires an accurate understanding of expected loads and responses during the deployment lifetime of a device. A study has been conducted to better understand best-practices for prediction of design responses in a wave energy converter. A case-study was performed in which a simplified wave energy converter was analyzed to predict several important device design responses. The application and performance of a full long-term analysis, in which numerical simulations were used to predict the device response for a large number of distinct sea states, was studied. Environmental characterization and selection of sea states for thismore » analysis at the intended deployment site were performed using principle-components analysis. The full long-term analysis applied here was shown to be stable when implemented with a relatively low number of sea states and convergent with an increasing number of sea states. As the number of sea states utilized in the analysis was increased, predicted response levels did not change appreciably. Furthermore, uncertainty in the response levels was reduced as more sea states were utilized.« less

Multi-Node Thermal System Model for Lithium-Ion Battery Packs: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shi, Ying; Smith, Kandler; Wood, Eric

Temperature is one of the main factors that controls the degradation in lithium ion batteries. Accurate knowledge and control of cell temperatures in a pack helps the battery management system (BMS) to maximize cell utilization and ensure pack safety and service life. In a pack with arrays of cells, a cells temperature is not only affected by its own thermal characteristics but also by its neighbors, the cooling system and pack configuration, which increase the noise level and the complexity of cell temperatures prediction. This work proposes to model lithium ion packs thermal behavior using a multi-node thermal network model,more » which predicts the cell temperatures by zones. The model was parametrized and validated using commercial lithium-ion battery packs. neighbors, the cooling system and pack configuration, which increase the noise level and the complexity of cell temperatures prediction. This work proposes to model lithium ion packs thermal behavior using a multi-node thermal network model, which predicts the cell temperatures by zones. The model was parametrized and validated using commercial lithium-ion battery packs.« less

Simultaneous Simulations of Uptake in Plants and Leaching to Groundwater of Cadmium and Lead for Arable Land Amended with Compost or Farmyard Manure

PubMed Central

Legind, Charlotte N.; Rein, Arno; Serre, Jeanne; Brochier, Violaine; Haudin, Claire-Sophie; Cambier, Philippe; Houot, Sabine; Trapp, Stefan

2012-01-01

The water budget of soil, the uptake in plants and the leaching to groundwater of cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) were simulated simultaneously using a physiological plant uptake model and a tipping buckets water and solute transport model for soil. Simulations were compared to results from a ten-year experimental field study, where four organic amendments were applied every second year. Predicted concentrations slightly decreased (Cd) or stagnated (Pb) in control soils, but increased in amended soils by about 10% (Cd) and 6% to 18% (Pb). Estimated plant uptake was lower in amended plots, due to an increase of Kd (dry soil to water partition coefficient). Predicted concentrations in plants were close to measured levels in plant residues (straw), but higher than measured concentrations in grains. Initially, Pb was mainly predicted to deposit from air into plants (82% in 1998); the next years, uptake from soil became dominating (30% from air in 2006), because of decreasing levels in air. For Cd, predicted uptake from air into plants was negligible (1–5%). PMID:23056555

Subsequent Vertebral Fractures Post Cement Augmentation of the Thoracolumbar Spine: Does it Correlate With Level-specific Bone Mineral Density Scores?

PubMed

Hey, Hwee Weng Dennis; Hwee Weng, Dennis Hey; Tan, Jun Hao; Jun, Hao Tan; Tan, Chuen Seng; Chuen, Seng Tan; Tan, Hsi Ming Bryan; Ming, Bryan Tan Hsi; Lau, Puang Huh Bernard; Huh, Bernard Lau Puang; Hee, Hwan Tak; Hwan, Tak Hee

2015-12-01

A case-control study. In this study, we investigated the correlation between level-specific preoperative bone mineral density and subsequent vertebral fractures. We also identified factors associated with subsequent vertebral fractures. Complications of cement augmentation of the spine include subsequent vertebral fractures, leading to unnecessary morbidity and more treatment. Ability to predict at-risk vertebra will help guide management. We studied all patients with osteoporotic compression fractures who underwent cement augmentation in a single institution from November 2001 to December 2010 by a single surgeon. Association between level-specific bone mineral density T-scores and subsequent fractures was assessed. Multivariable analysis was performed to identify significant factors associated with subsequent vertebral fractures. 93 patients followed up for a mean duration of 25.1 months (12-96) had a mean age of 76.8 years (47-99). Vertebroplasty was performed in 58 patients (62.4%) on 68 levels and kyphoplasty in 35 patients (37.6%) on 44 levels. Refracture was seen in 16 patients (17.2%). The time to subsequent fracture post cement augmentation was 20.5 months (2-90). For refracture cases, 43.8% (7/16) fractured in the adjacent vertebrae. Subsequently fractured vertebra had a mean T-score of -2.860 (95% confidence interval -3.268 to -2.452) and nonfractured vertebra had a mean T-score of -2.180 (95% confidence interval -2.373 to -1.986). A T-score of -2.2 or lower is predictive of refracture at that vertebra (P = 0.047). Odds ratio increases with decreasing T-scores from -2.2 or lower to -2.6 or lower. A T-score of -2.6 or lower gives no additional predictive advantage. After multivariable analysis, age (P = 0.049) and loss of preoperative anterior vertebral height (P = 0.017) are associated with refracture. Level-specific T-scores are predictive of subsequent fractures and the odds ratio increases with lower T-scores from -2.2 or less to -2.6 or less. They have a low positive predictive value, but a high negative predictive value for subsequent fractures. Other significant associations with subsequent refractures include age and anterior vertebral height. 4.

Applicability of linear regression equation for prediction of chlorophyll content in rice leaves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yunmei

2005-09-01

A modeling approach is used to assess the applicability of the derived equations which are capable to predict chlorophyll content of rice leaves at a given view direction. Two radiative transfer models, including PROSPECT model operated at leaf level and FCR model operated at canopy level, are used in the study. The study is consisted of three steps: (1) Simulation of bidirectional reflectance from canopy with different leaf chlorophyll contents, leaf-area-index (LAI) and under storey configurations; (2) Establishment of prediction relations of chlorophyll content by stepwise regression; and (3) Assessment of the applicability of these relations. The result shows that the accuracy of prediction is affected by different under storey configurations and, however, the accuracy tends to be greatly improved with increase of LAI.

The pre-operative levels of haemoglobin in the blood can be used to predict the risk of allogenic blood transfusion after total knee arthroplasty.

PubMed

Maempel, J F; Wickramasinghe, N R; Clement, N D; Brenkel, I J; Walmsley, P J

2016-04-01

The pre-operative level of haemoglobin is the strongest predictor of the peri-operative requirement for blood transfusion after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). There are, however, no studies reporting a value that could be considered to be appropriate pre-operatively. This study aimed to identify threshold pre-operative levels of haemoglobin that would predict the requirement for blood transfusion in patients who undergo TKA. Analysis of receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves of 2284 consecutive patients undergoing unilateral TKA was used to determine gender specific thresholds predicting peri-operative transfusion with the highest combined sensitivity and specificity (area under ROC curve 0.79 for males; 0.78 for females). Threshold levels of 13.75 g/dl for males and 12.75 g/dl for females were identified. The rates of transfusion in males and females, respectively above these levels were 3.37% and 7.11%, while below these levels, they were 16.13% and 28.17%. Pre-operative anaemia increased the rate of transfusion by 6.38 times in males and 6.27 times in females. Blood transfusion was associated with an increased incidence of early post-operative confusion (odds ratio (OR) = 3.44), cardiac arrhythmia (OR = 5.90), urinary catheterisation (OR = 1.60), the incidence of deep infection (OR = 4.03) and mortality (OR = 2.35) one year post-operatively, and increased length of stay (eight days vs six days, p < 0.001). Uncorrected low pre-operative levels of haemoglobin put patients at potentially modifiable risk and attempts should be made to correct this before TKA. Target thresholds for the levels of haemoglobin pre-operatively in males and females are proposed. Low pre-operative haemoglobin levels put patients at unnecessary risk and should be corrected prior to surgery. ©2016 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

Numerical prediction of the Mid-Atlantic states cyclone of 18-19 February 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, R.; Rosenberg, R.

1982-01-01

A series of forecast experiments was conducted to assess the accuracy of the GLAS model, and to determine the importance of large scale dynamical processes and diabatic heating to the cyclogenesis. The GLAS model correctly predicted intense coastal cyclogenesis and heavy precipitation. Repeated without surface heat and moisture fluxes, the model failed to predict any cyclone development. An extended range forecast, a forecast from the NMC analysis interpolated to the GLAS grid, and a forecast from the GLAS analysis with the surface moisture flux excluded predicted weak coastal low development. Diabatic heating resulting from oceanic fluxes significantly contributed to the generation of low level cyclonic vorticity and the intensification and slow rate of movement of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic. As an upper level short wave trough approached this ridge, diabatic heating associated with the release of latent heat intensified, and the gradient of vorticity, vorticity advection and upper level divergence in advance of the trough were greatly increased, providing strong large scale forcing for the surface cyclogenesis.

Dynamic compositional modeling of pedestrian crash counts on urban roads in Connecticut.

PubMed

Serhiyenko, Volodymyr; Ivan, John N; Ravishanker, Nalini; Islam, Md Saidul

2014-03-01

Uncovering the temporal trend in crash counts provides a good understanding of the context for pedestrian safety. With a rareness of pedestrian crashes it is impossible to investigate monthly temporal effects with an individual segment/intersection level data, thus the time dependence should be derived from the aggregated level data. Most previous studies have used annual data to investigate the differences in pedestrian crashes between different regions or countries in a given year, and/or to look at time trends of fatal pedestrian injuries annually. Use of annual data unfortunately does not provide sufficient information on patterns in time trends or seasonal effects. This paper describes statistical methods uncovering patterns in monthly pedestrian crashes aggregated on urban roads in Connecticut from January 1995 to December 2009. We investigate the temporal behavior of injury severity levels, including fatal (K), severe injury (A), evident minor injury (B), and non-evident possible injury and property damage only (C and O), as proportions of all pedestrian crashes in each month, taking into consideration effects of time trend, seasonal variations and VMT (vehicle miles traveled). This type of dependent multivariate data is characterized by positive components which sum to one, and occurs in several applications in science and engineering. We describe a dynamic framework with vector autoregressions (VAR) for modeling and predicting compositional time series. Combining these predictions with predictions from a univariate statistical model for total crash counts will then enable us to predict pedestrian crash counts with the different injury severity levels. We compare these predictions with those obtained from fitting separate univariate models to time series of crash counts at each injury severity level. We also show that the dynamic models perform better than the corresponding static models. We implement the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach to enable fast Bayesian posterior computation. Taking CO injury severity level as a baseline for the compositional analysis, we conclude that there was a noticeable shift in the proportion of pedestrian crashes from injury severity A to B, while the increase for injury severity K was extremely small over time. This shift to the less severe injury level (from A to B) suggests that the overall safety on urban roads in Connecticut is improving. In January and February, there was some increase in the proportions for levels A and B over the baseline, indicating a seasonal effect. We found evidence that an increase in VMT would result in a decrease of proportions over the baseline for all injury severity levels. Our dynamic model uncovered a decreasing trend in all pedestrian crash counts before April 2005, followed by a noticeable increase and a flattening out until the end of the fitting period. This appears to be largely due to the behavior of injury severity level A pedestrian crashes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Corridor Use Predicted from Behaviors at Habitat Boundaries.

PubMed

Haddad, Nick M

1999-02-01

Through empirical studies and simulation, I demonstrate how simple behaviors can be used in lieu of detailed dispersal studies to predict the effects of corridors on interpatch movements. Movement paths of three butterfly species were measured in large (1.64 ha) experimental patches of open habitat, some of which were connected by corridors. Butterflies that "reflected" off boundaries between open patches and the surrounding forest also emigrated from patches through corridors at rates higher than expected from random movement. This was observed for two open-habitat species, Eurema nicippe and Phoebis sennae; however, edges and corridors had no effect on a habitat generalist, Papilio troilus. Behaviorally based simulation models, which departed from correlated random walks only at habitat boundaries, predicted that corridors increase interpatch movement rates of both open-habitat species. Models also predicted that corridors have proportionately greater effects as corridor width increases, that movement rates increase before leveling off as corridor width increases, and that corridor effects decrease as patch size increases. This study suggests that corridors direct movements of habitat-restricted species and that local behaviors may be used to predict the conservation potential of corridors in fragmented landscapes.

Potential impact of predicted sea level rise on carbon sink function of mangrove ecosystems with special reference to Negombo estuary, Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perera, K. A. R. S.; De Silva, K. H. W. L.; Amarasinghe, M. D.

2018-02-01

Unique location in the land-sea interface makes mangrove ecosystems most vulnerable to the impacts of predicted sea level rise due to increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Among others, carbon sink function of these tropical ecosystems that contribute to reduce rising atmospheric CO2 and temperature, could potentially be affected most. Present study was undertaken to explore the extent of impact of the predicted sea level rise for the region on total organic carbon (TOC) pools of the mangrove ecosystems in Negombo estuary located on the west coast of Sri Lanka. Extents of the coastal inundations under minimum (0.09 m) and maximum (0.88 m) sea level rise scenarios of IPCC for 2100 and an intermediate level of 0.48 m were determined with GIS tools. Estimated total capacity of organic carbon retention by these mangrove areas was 499.45 Mg C ha- 1 of which 84% (418.98 Mg C ha- 1) sequestered in the mangrove soil and 16% (80.56 Mg C ha- 1) in the vegetation. Total extent of land area potentially affected by inundation under lowest sea level rise scenario was 218.9 ha, while it was 476.2 ha under intermediate rise and 696.0 ha with the predicted maximum sea level rise. Estimated rate of loss of carbon sink function due to inundation by the sea level rise of 0.09 m is 6.30 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1 while the intermediate sea level rise indicated a loss of 9.92 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1 and under maximum sea level rise scenario, this loss further increases up to 11.32 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1. Adaptation of mangrove plants to withstand inundation and landward migration along with escalated photosynthetic rates, augmented by changing rainfall patterns and availability of nutrients may contribute to reduce the rate of loss of carbon sink function of these mangrove ecosystems. Predictions over change in carbon sequestration function of mangroves in Negombo estuary reveals that it is not only affected by oceanographic and hydrological alterations associated with sea level rise but also by anthropogenic processes, therefore the impacts are site specific in terms of distribution and magnitude.

Contingent self-esteem and vulnerability to depression: academic contingent self-esteem predicts depressive symptoms in students

PubMed Central

Schöne, Claudia; Tandler, Sarah S.; Stiensmeier-Pelster, Joachim

2015-01-01

Low self-esteem has been established as a vulnerability factor for depression. In line with recent research, we suggest that a full understanding of the role of self-esteem in depression requires consideration of contingent self-esteem as well. For most people, competence is an important source of self-esteem. Students in particular link their self-esteem to academic competence. To test the hypothesis that academic contingent self-esteem (aCSE) predicts depressive symptoms (DS), two studies were conducted. Preceding the investigation of our hypothesis, the first purpose of Study 1 was to describe the development of aCSE, self-esteem (SE) level, and DS in adolescence in a sample of German students aged 10–16 (N = 1888) in order to provide a foundation for further analyses. Then, to address the main question, age and gender differences in aCSE, SE level, and DS as well as their relations were investigated. The results show that (1) gender differences emerged after the age of 10/11. Girls scored higher on aCSE and DS and lower on SE level than did boys, and aCSE and DS decreased and SE level increased over time in boys, while the rather disadvantageous pattern in girls remained stable. (2) After controlling for SE level and aCSE, the effects of gender and age × gender interaction on DS disappeared, suggesting an influence of aCSE on DS. (3) aCSE predicted DS over and above SE level. Since the results of Study 1 did not allow for causal conclusions, a longitudinal study (N = 160) was conducted to further investigate the causal role of aCSE. According to the diathesis-stress model, aCSE was expected to serve as a diathesis for developing DS in the face of academic stress (daily hassles) during an academic semester at university. The results of Study 2 revealed that aCSE interacted with corresponding hassles to predict increases in DS. High levels of academic stress led to increases in DS only among students who strongly based their SE on academic competence. Implications for prevention and intervention of depression are discussed. PMID:26539135

Lowered quality of life in mood disorders is associated with increased neuro-oxidative stress and basal thyroid-stimulating hormone levels and use of anticonvulsant mood stabilizers.

PubMed

Nunes, Caroline Sampaio; Maes, Michael; Roomruangwong, Chutima; Moraes, Juliana Brum; Bonifacio, Kamila Landucci; Vargas, Heber Odebrecht; Barbosa, Decio Sabbatini; Anderson, George; de Melo, Luiz Gustavo Piccoli; Drozdstoj, Stoyanov; Moreira, Estefania; Carvalho, André F; Nunes, Sandra Odebrecht Vargas

2018-04-17

Major affective disorders including bipolar disorder (BD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) are associated with impaired health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Oxidative stress and subtle thyroid abnormalities may play a pathophysiological role in both disorders. Thus, the current study was performed to examine whether neuro-oxidative biomarkers and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels could predict HRQoL in BD and MDD. This cross-sectional study enrolled 68 BD and 37 MDD patients and 66 healthy controls. The World Health Organization (WHO) QoL-BREF scale was used to assess 4 QoL subdomains. Peripheral blood malondialdehyde (MDA), advanced oxidation protein products, paraoxonaxe/CMPAase activity, a composite index of nitro-oxidative stress, and basal TSH were measured. In the total WHOQoL score, 17.3% of the variance was explained by increased advanced oxidation protein products and TSH levels and lowered CMPAase activity and male gender. Physical HRQoL (14.4%) was associated with increased MDA and TSH levels and lowered CMPAase activity. Social relations HRQoL (17.4%) was predicted by higher nitro-oxidative index and TSH values, while mental and environment HRQoL were independently predicted by CMPAase activity. Finally, 73.0% of the variance in total HRQoL was explained by severity of depressive symptoms, use of anticonvulsants, lower income, early lifetime emotional neglect, MDA levels, the presence of mood disorders, and suicidal ideation. These data show that lowered HRQoL in major affective disorders could at least in part result from the effects of lipid peroxidation, protein oxidation, lowered antioxidant enzyme activities, and higher levels of TSH. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Paris Declaration in practice: challenges of health sector aid coordination at the district level in Zambia

PubMed Central

Sundewall, Jesper; Forsberg, Birger C; Jönsson, Kristina; Chansa, Collins; Tomson, Göran

2009-01-01

Background The increasing resources available for and number of partners providing health sector aid have stimulated innovations, notably, the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness, which aim to improve aid coordination. In this, one of the first studies to analyse implementation of aid coordination below national level, the aim was to investigate the effect of the Paris Declaration on coordination of health sector aid at the district level in Zambia. Methods The study was carried out in three districts of Zambia. Data were collected via interviews with health centre staff, district managers and officials from the Ministry of Health, and from district action plans, financial reports and accounts, and health centre ledger cards. Four indicators of coordination related to external-partner activity, common arrangements used by external partners and predictability of funding were analysed and assessed in relation to the 2010 targets set by the Paris Declaration. Findings While the activity of external partners at the district level has increased, funding and activities provided by these partners are often not included in local plans. HIV/AIDS support show better integration in planning and implementation at the district level than other support. Regarding common arrangements used for fund disbursement, the share of resources provided as programme-based support is not increasing. The predictability of funds coming from outside the government financing mechanism is low. Conclusion Greater efforts to integrate partners in district level planning and implementation are needed. External partners must improve the predictability of their support and be more proactive in informing the districts about their intended contributions. With the deadline for achieving the targets set by the Paris Declaration fast approaching, it is time for the signatories to accelerate its implementation. PMID:19505300

A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction

PubMed Central

Alaminos, David; del Castillo, Agustín; Fernández, Manuel Ángel

2016-01-01

The recent world financial crisis has increased the number of bankruptcies in numerous countries and has resulted in a new area of research which responds to the need to predict this phenomenon, not only at the level of individual countries, but also at a global level, offering explanations of the common characteristics shared by the affected companies. Nevertheless, few studies focus on the prediction of bankruptcies globally. In order to compensate for this lack of empirical literature, this study has used a methodological framework of logistic regression to construct predictive bankruptcy models for Asia, Europe and America, and other global models for the whole world. The objective is to construct a global model with a high capacity for predicting bankruptcy in any region of the world. The results obtained have allowed us to confirm the superiority of the global model in comparison to regional models over periods of up to three years prior to bankruptcy. PMID:27880810

Sex-Related Online Behaviors, Perceived Peer Norms and Adolescents’ Experience with Sexual Behavior: Testing an Integrative Model

PubMed Central

Doornwaard, Suzan M.; ter Bogt, Tom F. M.; Reitz, Ellen; van den Eijnden, Regina J. J. M.

2015-01-01

Research on the role of sex-related Internet use in adolescents’ sexual development has often isolated the Internet and online behaviors from other, offline influencing factors in adolescents’ lives, such as processes in the peer domain. The aim of this study was to test an integrative model explaining how receptive (i.e., use of sexually explicit Internet material [SEIM]) and interactive (i.e., use of social networking sites [SNS]) sex-related online behaviors interrelate with perceived peer norms in predicting adolescents’ experience with sexual behavior. Structural equation modeling on longitudinal data from 1,132 Dutch adolescents (Mage T1 = 13.95; range 11-17; 52.7% boys) demonstrated concurrent, direct, and indirect effects between sex-related online behaviors, perceived peer norms, and experience with sexual behavior. SEIM use (among boys) and SNS use (among boys and girls) predicted increases in adolescents’ perceptions of peer approval of sexual behavior and/or in their estimates of the numbers of sexually active peers. These perceptions, in turn, predicted increases in adolescents’ level of experience with sexual behavior at the end of the study. Boys’ SNS use also directly predicted increased levels of experience with sexual behavior. These findings highlight the need for multisystemic research and intervention development to promote adolescents’ sexual health. PMID:26086606

Can fitness and movement quality prevent back injury in elite task force police officers? A 5-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

McGill, Stuart; Frost, David; Lam, Thomas; Finlay, Tim; Darby, Kevin; Cannon, Jordan

2015-01-01

Elite police work has bursts of intense physically demanding work requiring high levels of fitness, or capacity, and movement competency; which are assumed to increase one's injury resilience. The purpose of this study was to follow members of an elite police force (N = 53) to test whether back injuries (N = 14) could be predicted from measures of fitness and movement quality. Measures of torso endurance, relative and absolute strength, hip ROM and movement quality using the Functional Movement Screen(TM) and other dynamic movement tests were obtained from every officer at baseline. When variables were grouped and considered holistically, rather than individually, back injury could be predicted. Seven variables best predicted those who would suffer a back injury (64% sensitivity and 95% specificity for an overall concordance of 87%). Overall, the ability to predict back injury was not high, suggesting that there is more complexity to this relationship than is explained with the variables tested here. Practitioner Summary: Members of elite police forces have exposure to intense physically demanding work. Increased levels of fitness and movement competency have been assumed to increase injury resilience. However, complexity in the interactions between exposure, movement competency, training, fitness and injury may occlude the true relationship between these variables.

Sex-Related Online Behaviors, Perceived Peer Norms and Adolescents' Experience with Sexual Behavior: Testing an Integrative Model.

PubMed

Doornwaard, Suzan M; ter Bogt, Tom F M; Reitz, Ellen; van den Eijnden, Regina J J M

2015-01-01

Research on the role of sex-related Internet use in adolescents' sexual development has often isolated the Internet and online behaviors from other, offline influencing factors in adolescents' lives, such as processes in the peer domain. The aim of this study was to test an integrative model explaining how receptive (i.e., use of sexually explicit Internet material [SEIM]) and interactive (i.e., use of social networking sites [SNS]) sex-related online behaviors interrelate with perceived peer norms in predicting adolescents' experience with sexual behavior. Structural equation modeling on longitudinal data from 1,132 Dutch adolescents (M(age) T1 = 13.95; range 11-17; 52.7% boys) demonstrated concurrent, direct, and indirect effects between sex-related online behaviors, perceived peer norms, and experience with sexual behavior. SEIM use (among boys) and SNS use (among boys and girls) predicted increases in adolescents' perceptions of peer approval of sexual behavior and/or in their estimates of the numbers of sexually active peers. These perceptions, in turn, predicted increases in adolescents' level of experience with sexual behavior at the end of the study. Boys' SNS use also directly predicted increased levels of experience with sexual behavior. These findings highlight the need for multisystemic research and intervention development to promote adolescents' sexual health.

Experimental and analytical investigation of a modified ring cusp NSTAR engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sengupta, Anita

2005-01-01

A series of experimental measurements on a modified laboratory NSTAR engine were used to validate a zero dimensional analytical discharge performance model of a ring cusp ion thruster. The model predicts the discharge performance of a ring cusp NSTAR thruster as a function the magnetic field configuration, thruster geometry, and throttle level. Analytical formalisms for electron and ion confinement are used to predict the ionization efficiency for a given thruster design. Explicit determination of discharge loss and volume averaged plasma parameters are also obtained. The model was used to predict the performance of the nominal and modified three and four ring cusp 30-cm ion thruster configurations operating at the full power (2.3 kW) NSTAR throttle level. Experimental measurements of the modified engine configuration discharge loss compare well with the predicted value for propellant utilizations from 80 to 95%. The theory, as validated by experiment, indicates that increasing the magnetic strength of the minimum closed reduces maxwellian electron diffusion and electrostatically confines the ion population and subsequent loss to the anode wall. The theory also indicates that increasing the cusp strength and minimizing the cusp area improves primary electron confinement increasing the probability of an ionization collision prior to loss at the cusp.

A quantile regression approach can reveal the effect of fruit and vegetable consumption on plasma homocysteine levels.

PubMed

Verly, Eliseu; Steluti, Josiane; Fisberg, Regina Mara; Marchioni, Dirce Maria Lobo

2014-01-01

A reduction in homocysteine concentration due to the use of supplemental folic acid is well recognized, although evidence of the same effect for natural folate sources, such as fruits and vegetables (FV), is lacking. The traditional statistical analysis approaches do not provide further information. As an alternative, quantile regression allows for the exploration of the effects of covariates through percentiles of the conditional distribution of the dependent variable. To investigate how the associations of FV intake with plasma total homocysteine (tHcy) differ through percentiles in the distribution using quantile regression. A cross-sectional population-based survey was conducted among 499 residents of Sao Paulo City, Brazil. The participants provided food intake and fasting blood samples. Fruit and vegetable intake was predicted by adjusting for day-to-day variation using a proper measurement error model. We performed a quantile regression to verify the association between tHcy and the predicted FV intake. The predicted values of tHcy for each percentile model were calculated considering an increase of 200 g in the FV intake for each percentile. The results showed that tHcy was inversely associated with FV intake when assessed by linear regression whereas, the association was different when using quantile regression. The relationship with FV consumption was inverse and significant for almost all percentiles of tHcy. The coefficients increased as the percentile of tHcy increased. A simulated increase of 200 g in the FV intake could decrease the tHcy levels in the overall percentiles, but the higher percentiles of tHcy benefited more. This study confirms that the effect of FV intake on lowering the tHcy levels is dependent on the level of tHcy using an innovative statistical approach. From a public health point of view, encouraging people to increase FV intake would benefit people with high levels of tHcy.

Change in Maternal Criticism and Behavior Problems in Adolescents and Adults with Autism Across a Seven-Year Period

PubMed Central

Baker, Jason K.; Smith, Leann E.; Greenberg, Jan S.; Seltzer, Marsha Mailick; Taylor, Julie Lounds

2010-01-01

In a previous study from our laboratory, high levels of maternal criticism predicted increased behavior problems in adolescents and adults with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) over an 18-month period (Greenberg, Seltzer, Hong, & Orsmond, 2006). The current investigation followed these families over a period of seven years to examine the longitudinal course of criticism and behavior problems, to assess the association between their trajectories, and to determine the degree to which change in each of these factors predicted levels of criticism and behavior problems at the end of the study period. A sample of 118 mothers co-residing with their adolescents and adults with ASD provided open-ended narratives about their children and reported on the children's behavior problems at four waves. Maternal criticism was derived from expressed emotion ratings of the narratives. Criticism exhibited low but significant stability over the seven year period and behavior problems exhibited high stability. Using latent growth curve modeling, (a) criticism was found to have increased over time, but only for the group of families in which the sons or daughters transitioned from high school services during the study period, (b) individual changes in criticism and behavior problems were positively correlated over the seven-year period, and (c) changes in criticism predicted levels of behavior problems at the conclusion of the study. Changes in behavior problems were not predictive of end levels of criticism. Implications for intervention and prevention efforts are discussed. PMID:21319925

Predicting high risk births with contraceptive prevalence and contraceptive method-mix in an ecologic analysis.

PubMed

Perin, Jamie; Amouzou, Agbessi; Walker, Neff

2017-11-07

Increased contraceptive use has been associated with a decrease in high parity births, births that occur close together in time, and births to very young or to older women. These types of births are also associated with high risk of under-five mortality. Previous studies have looked at the change in the level of contraception use and the average change in these types of high-risk births. We aim to predict the distribution of births in a specific country when there is a change in the level and method of modern contraception. We used data from full birth histories and modern contraceptive use from 207 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys covering 71 countries to describe the distribution of births in each survey based on birth order, preceding birth space, and mother's age at birth. We estimated the ecologic associations between the prevalence and method-mix of modern contraceptives and the proportion of births in each category. Hierarchical modelling was applied to these aggregated cross sectional proportions, so that random effects were estimated for countries with multiple surveys. We use these results to predict the change in type of births associated with scaling up modern contraception in three different scenarios. We observed marked differences between regions, in the absolute rates of contraception, the types of contraceptives in use, and in the distribution of type of birth. Contraceptive method-mix was a significant determinant of proportion of high-risk births, especially for birth spacing, but also for mother's age and parity. Increased use of modern contraceptives is especially predictive of reduced parity and more births with longer preceding space. However, increased contraception alone is not associated with fewer births to women younger than 18 years or a decrease in short-spaced births. Both the level and the type of contraception are important factors in determining the effects of family planning on changes in distribution of high-risk births. The best predictions for how birth risk changes with increased modern contraception and for different contraception methods allow for more nuanced predictions specific to each country and can aid better planning for the scaling up of modern contraception.

Baseline placental growth factor levels for the prediction of benefit from early aspirin prophylaxis for preeclampsia prevention.

PubMed

Moore, Gaea S; Allshouse, Amanda A; Winn, Virginia D; Galan, Henry L; Heyborne, Kent D

2015-10-01

Placental growth factor (PlGF) levels early in pregnancy are lower in women who ultimately develop preeclampsia. Early initiation of low-dose aspirin reduces preeclampsia risk in some high risk women. We hypothesized that low PlGF levels may identify women at increased risk for preeclampsia who would benefit from aspirin. Secondary analysis of the MFMU High-Risk Aspirin study including singleton pregnancies randomized to aspirin 60mg/d (n=102) or placebo (n=72), with PlGF collected at 13w 0d-16w 6d. Within the placebo group, we estimated the probability of preeclampsia by PlGF level using logistic regression analysis, then determined a potential PlGF threshold for preeclampsia prediction using ROC analysis. We performed logistic regression modeling for potential confounders. ROC analysis indicated 87.71pg/ml as the threshold between high and low PlGF for preeclampsia-prediction. Within the placebo group high PlGF weakly predicted preeclampsia (AUC 0.653, sensitivity/specificity 63%/66%). We noted a 2.6-fold reduction in preeclampsia with aspirin in the high-PlGF group (12.15% aspirin vs 32.14% placebo, p=0.057), but no significant differences in preeclampsia in the low PlGF group (21.74% vs 15.91%, p=0.445). Unlike other studies, we found that high rather than low PlGF levels were associated with an increased preeclampsia risk. Low PlGF neither identified women at increased risk of preeclampsia nor women who benefitted from aspirin. Further research is needed to determine whether aspirin is beneficial in women with high PlGF, and whether the paradigm linking low PlGF and preeclampsia needs to be reevaluated. High-risk women with low baseline PlGF, a risk factor for preeclampsia, did not benefit from early initiation of low-dose aspirin. Copyright © 2015 International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical value of preoperative serum CA 19-9 and CA 125 levels in predicting the resectability of hilar cholangiocarcinoma.

PubMed

Hu, Hai-Jie; Mao, Hui; Tan, Yong-Qiong; Shrestha, Anuj; Ma, Wen-Jie; Yang, Qin; Wang, Jun-Ke; Cheng, Nan-Sheng; Li, Fu-Yu

2016-01-01

To examine the predictive value of tumor markers for evaluating tumor resectability in patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma and to explore the prognostic effect of various preoperative factors on resectability in patients with potentially resectable tumors. Patients with potentially resectable tumors judged by radiologic examination were included. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to evaluate serum carbohydrate antigenic determinant 19-9 (CA 19-9), carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA 125) and carcino embryonie antigen levels on tumor resectability. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were also conducted to analysis the correlation of preoperative factors with resectability. In patients with normal bilirubin levels, ROC curve analysis calculated the ideal CA 19-9 cut-off value of 203.96 U/ml in prediction of resectability, with a sensitivity of 83.7 %, specificity of 80 %, positive predictive value of 91.1 % and negative predictive value of 66.7 %. Meanwhile, the optimal cut-off value for CA 125 to predict resectability was 25.905 U/ml (sensitivity, 78.6 %; specificity, 67.5 %). In a multivariate logistic regression model, tumor size ≤3 cm (OR 4.149, 95 % CI 1.326-12.981, P = 0.015), preoperative CA 19-9 level ≤200 U/ml (OR 20.324, 95 % CI 6.509-63.467, P < 0.001), preoperative CA 125 levels ≤26 U/ml (OR 8.209, 95 % CI 2.624-25.677, P < 0.001) were independent determinants of resectability in patients diagnosed as hilar cholangiocarcinoma. Preoperative CA 19-9 and CA 125 levels predict resectability in patients with radiological resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma. Increased preoperative CA 19-9 levels and CA 125 levels are associated with poor resectability rate.

Multivariate prediction of motor diagnosis in Huntington's disease: 12 years of PREDICT‐HD

PubMed Central

Long, Jeffrey D.

2015-01-01

Abstract Background It is well known in Huntington's disease that cytosine‐adenine‐guanine expansion and age at study entry are predictive of the timing of motor diagnosis. The goal of this study was to assess whether additional motor, imaging, cognitive, functional, psychiatric, and demographic variables measured at study entry increased the ability to predict the risk of motor diagnosis over 12 years. Methods One thousand seventy‐eight Huntington's disease gene–expanded carriers (64% female) from the Neurobiological Predictors of Huntington's Disease study were followed up for up to 12 y (mean = 5, standard deviation = 3.3) covering 2002 to 2014. No one had a motor diagnosis at study entry, but 225 (21%) carriers prospectively received a motor diagnosis. Analysis was performed with random survival forests, which is a machine learning method for right‐censored data. Results Adding 34 variables along with cytosine‐adenine‐guanine and age substantially increased predictive accuracy relative to cytosine‐adenine‐guanine and age alone. Adding six of the common motor and cognitive variables (total motor score, diagnostic confidence level, Symbol Digit Modalities Test, three Stroop tests) resulted in lower predictive accuracy than the full set, but still had twice the 5‐y predictive accuracy than when using cytosine‐adenine‐guanine and age alone. Additional analysis suggested interactions and nonlinear effects that were characterized in a post hoc Cox regression model. Conclusions Measurement of clinical variables can substantially increase the accuracy of predicting motor diagnosis over and above cytosine‐adenine‐guanine and age (and their interaction). Estimated probabilities can be used to characterize progression level and aid in future studies' sample selection. © 2015 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society PMID:26340420

Impact of natural gas development in the Marcellus and Utica shales on regional ozone and fine particulate matter levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roohani, Yusuf H.; Roy, Anirban A.; Heo, Jinhyok; Robinson, Allen L.; Adams, Peter J.

2017-04-01

The Marcellus and Utica shale formations have recently been the focus of intense natural gas development and production, increasing regional air pollutant emissions. Here we examine the effects of these emissions on regional ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels using the chemical transport model, CAMx, and estimate the public health costs with BenMAP. Simulations were performed for three emissions scenarios for the year 2020 that span a range potential development storylines. In areas with the most gas development, the 'Medium Emissions' scenario, which corresponds to an intermediate level of development and widespread adoption of new equipment with lower emissions, is predicted to increase 8-hourly ozone design values by up to 2.5 ppbv and average annual PM2.5 concentrations by as much as 0.27 μg/m3. These impacts could range from as much as a factor of two higher to a factor of three lower depending on the level of development and the adoption of emission controls. Smaller impacts (e.g. 0.1-0.5 ppbv of ozone, depending on the emissions scenario) are predicted for non-attainment areas located downwind of the Marcellus region such as New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, DC. Premature deaths for the 'Medium Emissions' scenario are predicted to increase by 200-460 annually. The health impacts as well as the changes in ozone and PM2.5 were all driven primarily by NOx emissions.

Comprehensive ripeness-index for prediction of ripening level in mangoes by multivariate modelling of ripening behaviour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eyarkai Nambi, Vijayaram; Thangavel, Kuladaisamy; Manickavasagan, Annamalai; Shahir, Sultan

2017-01-01

Prediction of ripeness level in climacteric fruits is essential for post-harvest handling. An index capable of predicting ripening level with minimum inputs would be highly beneficial to the handlers, processors and researchers in fruit industry. A study was conducted with Indian mango cultivars to develop a ripeness index and associated model. Changes in physicochemical, colour and textural properties were measured throughout the ripening period and the period was classified into five stages (unripe, early ripe, partially ripe, ripe and over ripe). Multivariate regression techniques like partial least square regression, principal component regression and multi linear regression were compared and evaluated for its prediction. Multi linear regression model with 12 parameters was found more suitable in ripening prediction. Scientific variable reduction method was adopted to simplify the developed model. Better prediction was achieved with either 2 or 3 variables (total soluble solids, colour and acidity). Cross validation was done to increase the robustness and it was found that proposed ripening index was more effective in prediction of ripening stages. Three-variable model would be suitable for commercial applications where reasonable accuracies are sufficient. However, 12-variable model can be used to obtain more precise results in research and development applications.

Level and change in perceived control predict 19-year mortality: findings from the Americans' changing lives study.

PubMed

Infurna, Frank J; Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

2013-10-01

Perceived control plays an important role for health across adulthood and old age. However, little is known about the factors that account for such associations and whether changes in control (or control trajectory) uniquely predict major health outcomes over and above mean levels of control. Using data from the nationwide Americans' Changing Lives Study (House et al., 1990; N = 2,840, M age at T2: 56.32 years, range: 28-99, 64% women), we examined the extent to which mean levels and rates of change in perceived control over 16 years predict all-cause mortality over a 19-year follow-up period. Shared growth-survival models revealed that higher levels of and more positive changes in perceived control were associated with longer survival times, independent of sociodemographic correlates. We found that level effects of control were accounted for by well-being and health factors, whereas the change effects of control were not. Analyses also indicated an age-differential pattern, with the predictive effects of both levels and trajectories of control declining in old age. We discuss possible pathways through which perceived control operates to facilitate key health outcomes and consider how their malleability and effectiveness may change with increasing age.

Neural mechanisms to predict subjective level of fatigue in the future: a magnetoencephalography study

PubMed Central

Ishii, Akira; Tanaka, Masaaki; Watanabe, Yasuyoshi

2016-01-01

Fatigue is a major contributor to workplace accidents, morbidity, and mortality. To prevent the disruption of homeostasis and to concurrently accomplish an assigned workload, it is essential to control the level of workload based on the subjective estimation of the level of fatigue that will be experienced in the near future. In this study, we aimed to clarify the neural mechanisms related to predicting subjective levels of fatigue that would be experienced 60 min later, using magnetoencephalography. Sixteen healthy male volunteers participated in this study. In relation to the prediction, a decrease of alpha band power in the right Brodmann’s area (BA) 40 and BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms and that in the right BA 9 at 1350 to 1500 ms, and a decrease of gamma band power in the right BA 10 at 1500 to 1650 ms were observed. In addition, the decreased level of alpha band power in BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms was positively associated with the daily level of fatigue. These findings may help increase our understanding of the neural mechanisms activated to indicate the need to take a rest based on the prediction of the subjective fatigue in the future. PMID:27112115

Potential role of liver enzymes levels as predictor markers of glucose metabolism disorders in Tunisian population.

PubMed

Bouhajja, Houda; Abdelhedi, Rania; Amouri, Ali; Hadj Kacem, Faten; Marrakchi, Rim; Safi, Wajdi; Mrabet, Houcem; Chtourou, Lassaad; Charfi, Nadia; Fourati, Mouna; Bensassi, Salwa; Jamoussi, Kamel; Abid, Mohamed; Ayadi, Hammadi; Feki, Mouna Mnif; Elleuch, Noura Bougacha

2018-03-10

The relationship between liver enzymes and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk is inconclusive. We aimed to evaluate the association between liver markers and risk of carbohydrate metabolism disorders and their discriminatory power for T2D prediction. This cross-sectional study enrolled 216 participants classified as normoglycemic, prediabetes, newly-diagnosed diabetes and diagnosed diabetes. All participants underwent anthropometric and biochemical measurements. The relationship between hepatic enzymes and glucose metabolism markers was evaluated by ANCOVA analyses. The associations between liver enzymes and incident carbohydrate metabolism disorders were analyzed through logistic regression and their discriminatory capacity for T2D by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. High alkaline phosphatase (AP), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), γ-glutamyltransferase (γGT) and aspartate aminotrasferase (AST) levels were independently related to decreased insulin sensitivity. Interestingly, higher AP level was significantly associated with increased risk of prediabetes (p=0.017), newly-diagnosed diabetes (p=0.004) and T2D (p=0.007). Elevated γGT level was an independent risk factor for T2D (p=0.032) and undiagnosed-T2D (p=0.010) in prediabetic and normoglycemic subjects, respectively. In ROC analysis, AP was a powerful predictor of incident diabetes and significantly improved T2D prediction. Liver enzymes within normal range, specifically AP levels, are associated with increased risk of carbohydrate metabolism disorders and significantly improved T2D prediction.

Predicting gender differences in liking for vegetables and preference for a variety of vegetables among 11-year-old children.

PubMed

Lehto, Elviira; Ray, Carola; Haukkala, Ari; Yngve, Agneta; Thorsdottir, Inga; Roos, Eva

2015-12-01

We studied the factors that predict liking for vegetables and preference for a variety of vegetables among schoolchildren. Additionally, we examined if there were gender differences in the predictors that explain the hypothesized higher scores in liking vegetables and preferences among girls. The data from the PRO GREENS project included 424 Finnish children (response rate 77%) aged 11 to 12. The children completed validated measures about social and environmental factors related to their liking for vegetables and preferences both at baseline 2009 and follow-up 2010. The associations were examined with regression and mediation analyses. The strongest predictors of both girls' and boys' liking and preferences were higher levels of eating vegetables together with the family, previous vegetable intake and a lower level of perceived barriers. Liking was additionally predicted by a lower level of parental demand that their child should eat vegetables. Girls reported higher levels of liking and preferences in the follow-up. This gender difference was mainly explained by girls' lower level of perceived barriers related to vegetable intake and girls' higher previous vegetable intake. Interventions that aim to increase the low vegetable intake among boys by increasing their liking for vegetables and preference for a variety of vegetables could benefit from targeting perceived barriers, namely boys' perception and values concerning the consumption of vegetables. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential increase in coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise suggested by considering hydrodynamic attenuation effects

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, José F.; Saco, Patricia M.; Sandi, Steven; Saintilan, Neil; Riccardi, Gerardo

2017-01-01

The future of coastal wetlands and their ecological value depend on their capacity to adapt to the interacting effects of human impacts and sea-level rise. Even though extensive wetland loss due to submergence is a possible scenario, its magnitude is highly uncertain due to limited understanding of hydrodynamic and bio-geomorphic interactions over time. In particular, the effect of man-made drainage modifications on hydrodynamic attenuation and consequent wetland evolution is poorly understood. Predictions are further complicated by the presence of a number of vegetation types that change over time and also contribute to flow attenuation. Here, we show that flow attenuation affects wetland vegetation by modifying its wetting-drying regime and inundation depth, increasing its vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our simulations for an Australian subtropical wetland predict much faster wetland loss than commonly used models that do not consider flow attenuation. PMID:28703130

Influence of the number of vehicles in the emergence of sound events on the annoyance expressed - experimental study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vallet, M.

1982-01-01

The acoustical index leg was studied to determine its accuracy in predicting annoyance from traffic noise. Annoyance was tested in experimental situations where the frequency of the number of heavy vehicles varied from 3 to 30 HV/30 min for different classes of the Leg level at 50, 55, 60 dB(A) of traffic noise. The results showed that: (1) for a constant Leg level the annoyance increases as a function of the number of HV up to a certain threshold at which the annoyance is stabilized; (2) for a constant frequency of passage of HV, the annoyance increases with the Leg level; (3) composite indexes of the type Leg + Log NHV, L1 + EMER or L1 + L10 give a predictive value greater than that of the Leg pr Log nHV taken alone.

Potential increase in coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise suggested by considering hydrodynamic attenuation effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez, José F.; Saco, Patricia M.; Sandi, Steven; Saintilan, Neil; Riccardi, Gerardo

2017-07-01

The future of coastal wetlands and their ecological value depend on their capacity to adapt to the interacting effects of human impacts and sea-level rise. Even though extensive wetland loss due to submergence is a possible scenario, its magnitude is highly uncertain due to limited understanding of hydrodynamic and bio-geomorphic interactions over time. In particular, the effect of man-made drainage modifications on hydrodynamic attenuation and consequent wetland evolution is poorly understood. Predictions are further complicated by the presence of a number of vegetation types that change over time and also contribute to flow attenuation. Here, we show that flow attenuation affects wetland vegetation by modifying its wetting-drying regime and inundation depth, increasing its vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our simulations for an Australian subtropical wetland predict much faster wetland loss than commonly used models that do not consider flow attenuation.

Climate warming causes life-history evolution in a model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua).

PubMed

Holt, Rebecca E; Jørgensen, Christian

2014-01-01

Climate change influences the marine environment, with ocean warming being the foremost driving factor governing changes in the physiology and ecology of fish. At the individual level, increasing temperature influences bioenergetics and numerous physiological and life-history processes, which have consequences for the population level and beyond. We provide a state-dependent energy allocation model that predicts temperature-induced adaptations for life histories and behaviour for the North-East Arctic stock (NEA) of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in response to climate warming. The key constraint is temperature-dependent respiratory physiology, and the model includes a number of trade-offs that reflect key physiological and ecological processes. Dynamic programming is used to find an evolutionarily optimal strategy of foraging and energy allocation that maximizes expected lifetime reproductive output given constraints from physiology and ecology. The optimal strategy is then simulated in a population, where survival, foraging behaviour, growth, maturation and reproduction emerge. Using current forcing, the model reproduces patterns of growth, size-at-age, maturation, gonad production and natural mortality for NEA cod. The predicted climate responses are positive for this stock; under a 2°C warming, the model predicted increased growth rates and a larger asymptotic size. Maturation age was unaffected, but gonad weight was predicted to more than double. Predictions for a wider range of temperatures, from 2 to 7°C, show that temperature responses were gradual; fish were predicted to grow faster and increase reproductive investment at higher temperatures. An emergent pattern of higher risk acceptance and increased foraging behaviour was also predicted. Our results provide important insight into the effects of climate warming on NEA cod by revealing the underlying mechanisms and drivers of change. We show how temperature-induced adaptations of behaviour and several life-history traits are not only mediated by physiology but also by trade-offs with survival, which has consequences for conservation physiology.

Climate warming causes life-history evolution in a model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)

PubMed Central

Holt, Rebecca E.; Jørgensen, Christian

2014-01-01

Climate change influences the marine environment, with ocean warming being the foremost driving factor governing changes in the physiology and ecology of fish. At the individual level, increasing temperature influences bioenergetics and numerous physiological and life-history processes, which have consequences for the population level and beyond. We provide a state-dependent energy allocation model that predicts temperature-induced adaptations for life histories and behaviour for the North-East Arctic stock (NEA) of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in response to climate warming. The key constraint is temperature-dependent respiratory physiology, and the model includes a number of trade-offs that reflect key physiological and ecological processes. Dynamic programming is used to find an evolutionarily optimal strategy of foraging and energy allocation that maximizes expected lifetime reproductive output given constraints from physiology and ecology. The optimal strategy is then simulated in a population, where survival, foraging behaviour, growth, maturation and reproduction emerge. Using current forcing, the model reproduces patterns of growth, size-at-age, maturation, gonad production and natural mortality for NEA cod. The predicted climate responses are positive for this stock; under a 2°C warming, the model predicted increased growth rates and a larger asymptotic size. Maturation age was unaffected, but gonad weight was predicted to more than double. Predictions for a wider range of temperatures, from 2 to 7°C, show that temperature responses were gradual; fish were predicted to grow faster and increase reproductive investment at higher temperatures. An emergent pattern of higher risk acceptance and increased foraging behaviour was also predicted. Our results provide important insight into the effects of climate warming on NEA cod by revealing the underlying mechanisms and drivers of change. We show how temperature-induced adaptations of behaviour and several life-history traits are not only mediated by physiology but also by trade-offs with survival, which has consequences for conservation physiology. PMID:27293671

Clinical value of serum anti-mullerian hormone and inhibin B in prediction of ovarian response in patients with polycystic ovary syndrome.

PubMed

Zhang, Fan; Liu, Xiao-Ling; Rong, Nan; Huang, Xiao-Wen

2017-02-01

The present study aimed to investigate the clinical value of serum anti-mullerian hormone (AMH) and inhibin B (INHB) in predicting the ovarian response of patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A total of 120 PCOS patients were enrolled and divided into three groups in terms of the ovarian response: a low-response group (n=36), a normal-response group (n=44), and a high-response group (n=40). The serum AMH and INHB levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), and estradiol (E2) levels were determined by chemiluminescence microparticle immunoassay. The correlation of the serum AMH and INHB levels with other indicators was analyzed. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was established to analyze the prediction of ovarian response by AMH and INHB. The results showed that there were significant differences in age, body mass index (BMI), FSH, total gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH), LH, E2, and antral follicle counts (AFCs) between the groups (P<0.05). The serum AMH and INHB levels were increased significantly with the ovarian response of PCOS patients increasing (P<0.05). The serum AMH and INHB levels were negatively correlated with the age, BMI, FSH level, Gn, and E2 levels (P<0.05). They were positively correlated with the LH levels and AFCs (P<0.05). ROC curve analysis of serum AMH and INHB in prediction of a low ovarian response showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) value of the serum AMH level was 0.817, with a cut-off value of 1.29 ng/mL. The sensitivity and specificity were 71.2% and 79.6%, respectively. The AUC value of serum INHB was 0.674, with a cut-off value of 38.65 ng/mL, and the sensitivity and specificity were 50.7% and 74.5%, respectively. ROC curve analysis showed when the serum AMH and INHB levels were used to predict a high ovarian response, the AUC value of the serum AMH level was 0.742, with a cut-off value of 2.84 ng/mL, and the sensitivity and specificity were 72.7% and 65.9%, respectively; the AUC value of the serum INHB level was 0.551 with a cut-off of 45.76 ng/mL, and the sensitivity and specificity were 76.3% and 40.2%, respectively. It was suggested the serum AMH and INHB levels have high clinical value in predicting the ovarian response of PCOS patients.

Assessment of the climate change impacts on fecal coliform contamination in a tidal estuarine system.

PubMed

Liu, Wen-Cheng; Chan, Wen-Ting

2015-12-01

Climate change is one of the key factors affecting the future microbiological water quality in rivers and tidal estuaries. A coupled 3D hydrodynamic and fecal coliform transport model was developed and applied to the Danshuei River estuarine system for predicting the influences of climate change on microbiological water quality. The hydrodynamic and fecal coliform model was validated using observational salinity and fecal coliform distributions. According to the analyses of the statistical error, predictions of the salinity and the fecal coliform concentration from the model simulation quantitatively agreed with the observed data. The validated model was then applied to predict the fecal coliform contamination as a result of climate change, including the change of freshwater discharge and the sea level rise. We found that the reduction of freshwater discharge under climate change scenarios resulted in an increase in the fecal coliform concentration. The sea level rise would decrease fecal coliform distributions because both the water level and the water volume increased. A reduction in freshwater discharge has a negative impact on the fecal coliform concentration, whereas a rising sea level has a positive influence on the fecal coliform contamination. An appropriate strategy for the effective microbiological management in tidal estuaries is required to reveal the persistent trends of climate in the future.

Soluble CD40L Is a Useful Marker to Predict Future Strokes in Patients With Minor Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack.

PubMed

Li, Jiejie; Wang, Yilong; Lin, Jinxi; Wang, David; Wang, Anxin; Zhao, Xingquan; Liu, Liping; Wang, Chunxue; Wang, Yongjun

2015-07-01

Elevated soluble CD40 ligand (sCD40L) was shown to be related to cardiovascular events, but the role of sCD40L in predicting recurrent stroke remains unclear. Baseline sCD40L levels were measured in 3044 consecutive patients with acute minor stroke and transient ischemic attack, who had previously been enrolled in the Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients With Acute Nondisabling Cerebrovascular Events (CHANCE) trial. Cox proportional-hazards model was used to assess the association of sCD40L with recurrent stroke. Patients in the top tertile of sCD40L levels had increased risk of recurrent stroke comparing with those in the bottom tertile, after adjusted for conventional confounding factors (hazard ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.00; P=0.008). The patients with elevated levels of both sCD40L and high-sensitive C-reactive protein also had increased risk of recurrent stroke (hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.68; P=0.003). Elevated sCD40L levels independently predict recurrent stroke in patients with minor stroke and transient ischemic attack. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00979589. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Association of outdoor recreation availability with physical activity and weight status in Minnesota youth.

PubMed

Wilhelm Stanis, Sonja A; Oftedal, Andrew; Schneider, Ingrid

2014-03-01

Examine macro-level associations of youth physical activity (PA) and weight status with availability of outdoor recreation resources (i.e., parkland, forestland, natural preserves, nonmotorized trails, and motorized trails) across counties in Minnesota. Hierarchical regression models examined if availability of recreation resources significantly improved prediction of PA and weight status of 9th and 12th grade boys and girls (2010) across Minnesota counties. The inclusion of county-level densities of recreational land variables did not produce a significant increase in R(2) for any of the models predicting 9th grade outcomes, yet county-level densities of recreational trails did significantly increase R(2) for both levels of PA and weight status. In contrast, the inclusion of recreational trails did not produce any significant increases in R(2) for 12th grade outcomes, although the inclusion of recreational land did significantly increase the R(2) for 12th grade girls achieving 30min of PA 5 or more days of the week. Findings indicate that various recreational land and trail types may have different impacts on and associations with PA and health outcomes. As such, it is important that future studies focus not only on parks, but also on other types of recreational lands and trails as well. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A model-based evaluation of the impacts of urban expansion on flow variability and aquatic biodiversity in the Big River watershed in eastern Missouri (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knouft, J.; Chu, M. L.

2013-12-01

Natural flow regimes in aquatic systems sustain biodiversity and provide support for basic ecological processes. Nevertheless, the hydrology of aquatic systems is heavily impacted by human activities including land use changes associated with urbanization. Small increases in urban expansion can greatly increase surface runoff while decreasing infiltration. These changes in land use can also affect aquifer recharge and alter streamflow, thus impacting water quality, aquatic biodiversity, and ecosystem productivity. However, there are few studies predicting the effects of various levels of urbanization on flow regimes and the subsequent impacts of these flow alterations on ecosystem endpoints at the watershed scale. We quantified the potential effects of varying degrees of urban expansion on the discharge, velocity, and water depth in the Big River watershed in eastern Missouri using a physically-based watershed model, MIKE-SHE, and a 1D hydrodynamic river model, MIKE-11. Five land cover scenarios corresponding to increasing levels of urban expansion were used to determine the sensitivity of flow in the Big River watershed to increasing urbanization. Results indicate that the frequency of low flow events decreases as urban expansion increases, while the frequency of average and high-flow events increases as urbanization increases. We used current estimates of flow from the MIKE-SHE model to predict variation in fish species richness at 44 sites across the watershed based on standardized fish collections from each site. This model was then used with flow estimates from the urban expansion hydrological models to predict potential changes in fish species richness as urban areas increase. Responses varied among sites with some areas predicted to experience increases in species richness while others are predicted to experience decreases in species richness. Taxonomic identity of species also appeared to influence results with the number of species of Cyprinidae (minnows) expected to increase across the watershed, while the number of species of Centrachidae (bass and sunfish) is expected to decrease across the watershed.

Evidence That a Psychopathology Interactome Has Diagnostic Value, Predicting Clinical Needs: An Experience Sampling Study

PubMed Central

van Os, Jim; Lataster, Tineke; Delespaul, Philippe; Wichers, Marieke; Myin-Germeys, Inez

2014-01-01

Background For the purpose of diagnosis, psychopathology can be represented as categories of mental disorder, symptom dimensions or symptom networks. Also, psychopathology can be assessed at different levels of temporal resolution (monthly episodes, daily fluctuating symptoms, momentary fluctuating mental states). We tested the diagnostic value, in terms of prediction of treatment needs, of the combination of symptom networks and momentary assessment level. Method Fifty-seven patients with a psychotic disorder participated in an ESM study, capturing psychotic experiences, emotions and circumstances at 10 semi-random moments in the flow of daily life over a period of 6 days. Symptoms were assessed by interview with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS); treatment needs were assessed using the Camberwell Assessment of Need (CAN). Results Psychotic symptoms assessed with the PANSS (Clinical Psychotic Symptoms) were strongly associated with psychotic experiences assessed with ESM (Momentary Psychotic Experiences). However, the degree to which Momentary Psychotic Experiences manifested as Clinical Psychotic Symptoms was determined by level of momentary negative affect (higher levels increasing probability of Momentary Psychotic Experiences manifesting as Clinical Psychotic Symptoms), momentary positive affect (higher levels decreasing probability of Clinical Psychotic Symptoms), greater persistence of Momentary Psychotic Experiences (persistence predicting increased probability of Clinical Psychotic Symptoms) and momentary environmental stress associated with events and activities (higher levels increasing probability of Clinical Psychotic Symptoms). Similarly, the degree to which momentary visual or auditory hallucinations manifested as Clinical Psychotic Symptoms was strongly contingent on the level of accompanying momentary paranoid delusional ideation. Momentary Psychotic Experiences were associated with CAN unmet treatment needs, over and above PANSS measures of psychopathology, similarly moderated by momentary interactions with emotions and context. Conclusion The results suggest that psychopathology, represented as an interactome at the momentary level of temporal resolution, is informative in diagnosing clinical needs, over and above traditional symptom measures. PMID:24466189

Levels of serum uric acid at admission for hypoglycaemia predict 1-year mortality.

PubMed

Bonaventura, Aldo; Gallo, Fiorenza; Carbone, Federico; Liberale, Luca; Maggi, Davide; Sacchi, Giovanni; Dallegri, Franco; Montecucco, Fabrizio; Cordera, Renzo

2018-04-01

Hypoglycaemia represents a critical burden with clinical and social consequences in the management of diabetes. Serum uric acid (SUA) has been associated with cardiovascular diseases (CVD), but no conclusive findings are available nowadays in patients suffering from hypoglycaemia. We investigated whether SUA levels at the time of hypoglycaemia could predict all-cause mortality after 1-year follow-up. In total, 219 patients admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) of Ospedale Policlinico S. Martino of Genoa (Italy) have been enrolled between January 2011 and December 2014. The primary endpoint of the study consisted in determining whether SUA levels at the time of ED admission could predict the occurrence of death after 1 year. The majority of patients were diabetic, especially type 2. CVD and chronic kidney disease were prevalent comorbidities. By a cut-off value obtained by the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, a Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that patients with SUA levels > 5.43 mg/dL were more prone to death after 1 year compared to those with lower SUA levels. The risk of death increased with high SUA levels both in the univariate and the multivariate models including estimated glomerular filtration rate, C-reactive protein, type of diabetes, and age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index. SUA could be useful as a predictor of 1-year mortality in hypoglycaemic patients, irrespective of severe comorbidities notably increasing the risk of death in these frail patients.

The effect of word prediction settings (frequency of use) on text input speed in persons with cervical spinal cord injury: a prospective study.

PubMed

Pouplin, Samuel; Roche, Nicolas; Antoine, Jean-Yves; Vaugier, Isabelle; Pottier, Sandra; Figere, Marjorie; Bensmail, Djamel

2017-06-01

To determine whether activation of the frequency of use and automatic learning parameters of word prediction software has an impact on text input speed. Forty-five participants with cervical spinal cord injury between C4 and C8 Asia A or B accepted to participate to this study. Participants were separated in two groups: a high lesion group for participants with lesion level is at or above C5 Asia AIS A or B and a low lesion group for participants with lesion is between C6 and C8 Asia AIS A or B. A single evaluation session was carried out for each participant. Text input speed was evaluated during three copying tasks: • without word prediction software (WITHOUT condition) • with automatic learning of words and frequency of use deactivated (NOT_ACTIV condition) • with automatic learning of words and frequency of use activated (ACTIV condition) Results: Text input speed was significantly higher in the WITHOUT than the NOT_ACTIV (p< 0.001) or ACTIV conditions (p = 0.02) for participants with low lesions. Text input speed was significantly higher in the ACTIV than in the NOT_ACTIV (p = 0.002) or WITHOUT (p < 0.001) conditions for participants with high lesions. Use of word prediction software with the activation of frequency of use and automatic learning increased text input speed in participants with high-level tetraplegia. For participants with low-level tetraplegia, the use of word prediction software with frequency of use and automatic learning activated only decreased the number of errors. Implications in rehabilitation   Access to technology can be difficult for persons with disabilities such as cervical spinal cord injury (SCI). Several methods have been developed to increase text input speed such as word prediction software.This study show that parameter of word prediction software (frequency of use) affected text input speed in persons with cervical SCI and differed according to the level of the lesion. • For persons with high-level lesion, our results suggest that this parameter must be activated so that text input speed is increased. • For persons with low lesion group, this parameter must be activated so that the numbers of errors are decreased. • In all cases, the activation of the parameter of frequency of use is essential in order to improve the efficiency of the word prediction software. • Health-related professionals should use these results in their clinical practice for better results and therefore better patients 'satisfaction.

Predicting county-level cancer incidence rates and counts in the United States

PubMed Central

Yu, Binbing

2018-01-01

Many countries, including the United States, publish predicted numbers of cancer incidence and death in current and future years for the whole country. These predictions provide important information on the cancer burden for cancer control planners, policymakers and the general public. Based on evidence from several empirical studies, the joinpoint (segmented-line linear regression) model has been adopted by the American Cancer Society to estimate the number of new cancer cases in the United States and in individual states since 2007. Recently, cancer incidence in smaller geographic regions such as counties and FIPS code regions is of increasing interest by local policymakers. The natural extension is to directly apply the joinpoint model to county-level cancer incidence data. The direct application has several drawbacks and its performance has not been evaluated. To address the concerns, we developed a spatial random-effects joinpoint model for county-level cancer incidence data. The proposed model was used to predict both cancer incidence rates and counts at the county level. The standard joinpoint model and the proposed method were compared through a validation study. The proposed method out-performed the standard joinpoint model for almost all cancer sites, especially for moderate or rare cancer sites and for counties with small population sizes. As an application, we predicted county-level prostate cancer incidence rates and counts for the year 2011 in Connecticut. PMID:23670947

Connectivity Reveals Sources of Predictive Coding Signals in Early Visual Cortex During Processing of Visual Optic Flow.

PubMed

Schindler, Andreas; Bartels, Andreas

2017-05-01

Superimposed on the visual feed-forward pathway, feedback connections convey higher level information to cortical areas lower in the hierarchy. A prominent framework for these connections is the theory of predictive coding where high-level areas send stimulus interpretations to lower level areas that compare them with sensory input. Along these lines, a growing body of neuroimaging studies shows that predictable stimuli lead to reduced blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) responses compared with matched nonpredictable counterparts, especially in early visual cortex (EVC) including areas V1-V3. The sources of these modulatory feedback signals are largely unknown. Here, we re-examined the robust finding of relative BOLD suppression in EVC evident during processing of coherent compared with random motion. Using functional connectivity analysis, we show an optic flow-dependent increase of functional connectivity between BOLD suppressed EVC and a network of visual motion areas including MST, V3A, V6, the cingulate sulcus visual area (CSv), and precuneus (Pc). Connectivity decreased between EVC and 2 areas known to encode heading direction: entorhinal cortex (EC) and retrosplenial cortex (RSC). Our results provide first evidence that BOLD suppression in EVC for predictable stimuli is indeed mediated by specific high-level areas, in accord with the theory of predictive coding. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Inorganic cobalt supplementation: prediction of cobalt levels in whole blood and urine using a biokinetic model.

PubMed

Unice, Kenneth M; Monnot, Andrew D; Gaffney, Shannon H; Tvermoes, Brooke E; Thuett, Kerry A; Paustenbach, Dennis J; Finley, Brent L

2012-07-01

Soluble cobalt (Co) supplements with recommended daily doses up to 1000 μg Co/day are increasingly being marketed to consumers interested in healthy living practices. For example, some athletes may consider using Co supplements as blood doping agents, as Co is known to stimulate erythropoesis. However, the distribution and excretion kinetics of ingested Co are understood in a limited fashion. We used a Co-specific biokinetic model to estimate whole blood and urine Co levels resulting from oral exposure or ingestion of Co in amounts exceeding typical dietary intake rates. Following 10 days of Co supplementation at a rate of 400 to 1000 μg/day, predicted adult Co concentrations range from 1.7 to 10 μg/L in whole blood, and from 20 to 120 μg/L in urine. Chronic supplementation (≥ 1 year) at a rate of 1000 μg Co/day is predicted to result in blood levels of 5.7 to 13 μg/L, and in urine levels from 65 to 150 μg/L. The model predictions are within those measured in humans following ingestion of known doses. The methodology presented in this paper can be used to predict urinary or blood Co levels following acute or chronic occupational incidental ingestion, medicinal therapy, supplemental intake, or other non-occupational exposures. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Brain natriuretic peptide predicts functional outcome in ischemic stroke

PubMed Central

Rost, Natalia S; Biffi, Alessandro; Cloonan, Lisa; Chorba, John; Kelly, Peter; Greer, David; Ellinor, Patrick; Furie, Karen L

2011-01-01

Background Elevated serum levels of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) have been associated with cardioembolic (CE) stroke and increased post-stroke mortality. We sought to determine whether BNP levels were associated with functional outcome after ischemic stroke. Methods We measured BNP in consecutive patients aged ≥18 years admitted to our Stroke Unit between 2002–2005. BNP quintiles were used for analysis. Stroke subtypes were assigned using TOAST criteria. Outcomes were measured as 6-month modified Rankin Scale score (“good outcome” = 0–2 vs. “poor”) as well as mortality. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess association between the quintiles of BNP and outcomes. Predictive performance of BNP as compared to clinical model alone was assessed by comparing ROC curves. Results Of 569 ischemic stroke patients, 46% were female; mean age was 67.9 ± 15 years. In age- and gender-adjusted analysis, elevated BNP was associated with lower ejection fraction (p<0.0001) and left atrial dilatation (p<0.001). In multivariate analysis, elevated BNP decreased the odds of good functional outcome (OR 0.64, 95%CI 0.41–0.98) and increased the odds of death (OR 1.75, 95%CI 1.36–2.24) in these patients. Addition of BNP to multivariate models increased their predictive performance for functional outcome (p=0.013) and mortality (p<0.03) after CE stroke. Conclusions Serum BNP levels are strongly associated with CE stroke and functional outcome at 6 months after ischemic stroke. Inclusion of BNP improved prediction of mortality in patients with CE stroke. PMID:22116811

Glucose predictability, blood capillary permeability, and glucose utilization rate in subcutaneous, skeletal muscle, and visceral fat tissues.

PubMed

Koutny, Tomas

2013-11-01

This study suggests an approach for the comparison and evaluation of particular compartments with modest experimental setup costs. A glucose level prediction model was used to evaluate the compartment's glucose transport rate across the blood capillary membrane and the glucose utilization rate by the cells. The glucose levels of the blood, subcutaneous tissue, skeletal muscle tissue, and visceral fat were obtained in experiments conducted on hereditary hypertriglyceridemic rats. After the blood glucose level had undergone a rapid change, the experimenter attempted to reach a steady blood glucose level by manually correcting the glucose infusion rate and maintaining a constant insulin infusion rate. The interstitial fluid glucose levels of subcutaneous tissue, skeletal muscle tissue, and visceral fat were evaluated to determine the reaction delay compared with the change in the blood glucose level, the interstitial fluid glucose level predictability, the blood capillary permeability, the effect of the concentration gradient, and the glucose utilization rate. Based on these data, the glucose transport rate across the capillary membrane and the utilization rate in a particular tissue were determined. The rates obtained were successfully verified against positron emission tomography experiments. The subcutaneous tissue exhibits the lowest and the most predictable glucose utilization rate, whereas the skeletal muscle tissue has the greatest glucose utilization rate. In contrast, the visceral fat is the least predictable and has the shortest reaction delay compared with the change in the blood glucose level. The reaction delays obtained for the subcutaneous tissue and skeletal muscle tissue were found to be approximately equal using a metric based on the time required to reach half of the increase in the interstitial fluid glucose level. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Gulf Coast

Treesearch

Rachel Loehman; Greer Anderson

2010-01-01

Predicted climate changes in the Gulf Coast bioregion include increased air and sea surface temperatures, altered fire regimes and rainfall patterns, increased frequency of extreme weather events, rising sea levels, increased hurricane intensity, and potential destruction of coastal wetlands and the species that reside within them. Prolonged drought conditions, storm...

Bird diversity and environmental heterogeneity in North America: A test of the area-heterogeneity trade-off

Treesearch

Rachel Chocron; Curtis H. Flather; Ronen Kadmon

2015-01-01

Aim: Deterministic niche theory predicts that increasing environmental heterogeneity increases species richness. In contrast, a recent stochastic model suggests that heterogeneity has a unimodal effect on species richness since high levels of heterogeneity reduce the effective area available per species, thereby increasing the likelihood of stochastic...

Global performance enhancements via pedestal optimisation on ASDEX Upgrade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunne, M. G.; Frassinetti, L.; Beurskens, M. N. A.; Cavedon, M.; Fietz, S.; Fischer, R.; Giannone, L.; Huijsmans, G. T. A.; Kurzan, B.; Laggner, F.; McCarthy, P. J.; McDermott, R. M.; Tardini, G.; Viezzer, E.; Willensdorfer, M.; Wolfrum, E.; The EUROfusion MST1 Team; The ASDEX Upgrade Team

2017-02-01

Results of experimental scans of heating power, plasma shape, and nitrogen content are presented, with a focus on global performance and pedestal alteration. In detailed scans at low triangularity, it is shown that the increase in stored energy due to nitrogen seeding stems from the pedestal. It is also shown that the confinement increase is driven through the temperature pedestal at the three heating power levels studied. In a triangularity scan, an orthogonal effect of shaping and seeding is observed, where increased plasma triangularity increases the pedestal density, while impurity seeding (carbon and nitrogen) increases the pedestal temperature in addition to this effect. Modelling of these effects was also undertaken, with interpretive and predictive models being employed. The interpretive analysis shows a general agreement of the experimental pedestals in separate power, shaping, and seeding scans with peeling-ballooning theory. Predictive analysis was used to isolate the individual effects, showing that the trends of additional heating power and increased triangularity can be recoverd. However, a simple change of the effective charge in the plasma cannot explain the observed levels of confinement improvement in the present models.

Responses of eastern Chinese coastal salt marshes to sea-level rise combined with vegetative and sedimentary processes.

PubMed

Ge, Zhen-Ming; Wang, Heng; Cao, Hao-Bin; Zhao, Bin; Zhou, Xiao; Peltola, Heli; Cui, Li-Fang; Li, Xiu-Zhen; Zhang, Li-Quan

2016-06-23

The impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal ecosystems have attracted worldwide attention in relation to global change. In this study, the salt marsh model for the Yangtze Estuary (SMM-YE, developed in China) and the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM, developed in the U.S.) were used to simulate the effects of SLR on the coastal salt marshes in eastern China. The changes in the dominant species in the plant community were also considered. Predictions based on the SLAMM indicated a trend of habitat degradation up to 2100; total salt marsh habitat area continued to decline (4-16%) based on the low-level scenario, with greater losses (6-25%) predicted under the high-level scenario. The SMM-YE showed that the salt marshes could be resilient to threats of SLR through the processes of accretion of mudflats, vegetation expansion and sediment trapping by plants. This model predicted that salt marsh areas increased (3-6%) under the low-level scenario. The decrease in the total habitat area with the SMM-YE under the high-level scenario was much lower than the SLAMM prediction. Nevertheless, SLR might negatively affect the salt marsh species that are not adapted to prolonged inundation. An adaptive strategy for responding to changes in sediment resources is necessary in the Yangtze Estuary.

Responses of eastern Chinese coastal salt marshes to sea-level rise combined with vegetative and sedimentary processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Zhen-Ming; Wang, Heng; Cao, Hao-Bin; Zhao, Bin; Zhou, Xiao; Peltola, Heli; Cui, Li-Fang; Li, Xiu-Zhen; Zhang, Li-Quan

2016-06-01

The impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal ecosystems have attracted worldwide attention in relation to global change. In this study, the salt marsh model for the Yangtze Estuary (SMM-YE, developed in China) and the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM, developed in the U.S.) were used to simulate the effects of SLR on the coastal salt marshes in eastern China. The changes in the dominant species in the plant community were also considered. Predictions based on the SLAMM indicated a trend of habitat degradation up to 2100; total salt marsh habitat area continued to decline (4-16%) based on the low-level scenario, with greater losses (6-25%) predicted under the high-level scenario. The SMM-YE showed that the salt marshes could be resilient to threats of SLR through the processes of accretion of mudflats, vegetation expansion and sediment trapping by plants. This model predicted that salt marsh areas increased (3-6%) under the low-level scenario. The decrease in the total habitat area with the SMM-YE under the high-level scenario was much lower than the SLAMM prediction. Nevertheless, SLR might negatively affect the salt marsh species that are not adapted to prolonged inundation. An adaptive strategy for responding to changes in sediment resources is necessary in the Yangtze Estuary.

Predictive Criteria to Study the Pathogenesis of Malaria-Associated ALI/ARDS in Mice

PubMed Central

Ortolan, Luana S.; Sercundes, Michelle K.; Debone, Daniela; Hagen, Stefano C. F.; D' Império Lima, Maria Regina; Alvarez, José M.; Marinho, Claudio R. F.; Epiphanio, Sabrina

2014-01-01

Malaria-associated acute lung injury/acute respiratory distress syndrome (ALI/ARDS) often results in morbidity and mortality. Murine models to study malaria-associated ALI/ARDS have been described; we still lack a method of distinguishing which mice will develop ALI/ARDS before death. This work aimed to characterize malaria-associated ALI/ARDS in a murine model and to demonstrate the first method to predict whether mice are suffering from ALI/ARDS before death. DBA/2 mice infected with Plasmodium berghei ANKA developing ALI/ARDS or hyperparasitemia (HP) were compared using histopathology, PaO2 measurement, pulmonary X-ray, breathing capacity, lung permeability, and serum vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) levels according to either the day of death or the suggested predictive criteria. We proposed a model to predict malaria-associated ALI/ARDS using breathing patterns (enhanced pause and frequency respiration) and parasitemia as predictive criteria from mice whose cause of death was known to retrospectively diagnose the sacrificed mice as likely to die of ALI/ARDS as early as 7 days after infection. Using this method, we showed increased VEGF levels and increased lung permeability in mice predicted to die of ALI/ARDS. This proposed method for accurately identifying mice suffering from ALI/ARDS before death will enable the use of this model to study the pathogenesis of this disease. PMID:25276057

A predictive biophysical model of translational coupling to coordinate and control protein expression in bacterial operons

PubMed Central

Tian, Tian; Salis, Howard M.

2015-01-01

Natural and engineered genetic systems require the coordinated expression of proteins. In bacteria, translational coupling provides a genetically encoded mechanism to control expression level ratios within multi-cistronic operons. We have developed a sequence-to-function biophysical model of translational coupling to predict expression level ratios in natural operons and to design synthetic operons with desired expression level ratios. To quantitatively measure ribosome re-initiation rates, we designed and characterized 22 bi-cistronic operon variants with systematically modified intergenic distances and upstream translation rates. We then derived a thermodynamic free energy model to calculate de novo initiation rates as a result of ribosome-assisted unfolding of intergenic RNA structures. The complete biophysical model has only five free parameters, but was able to accurately predict downstream translation rates for 120 synthetic bi-cistronic and tri-cistronic operons with rationally designed intergenic regions and systematically increased upstream translation rates. The biophysical model also accurately predicted the translation rates of the nine protein atp operon, compared to ribosome profiling measurements. Altogether, the biophysical model quantitatively predicts how translational coupling controls protein expression levels in synthetic and natural bacterial operons, providing a deeper understanding of an important post-transcriptional regulatory mechanism and offering the ability to rationally engineer operons with desired behaviors. PMID:26117546

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dar, Roy; Shaffer, Sydney M.; Singh, Abhyudai

Recent analysis demonstrates that the HIV-1 Long Terminal Repeat (HIV LTR) promoter exhibits a range of possible transcriptional burst sizes and frequencies for any mean-expression level. However, these results have also been interpreted as demonstrating that cell-tocell expression variability (noise) and mean are uncorrelated, a significant deviation from previous results. Here, we re-examine the available mRNA and protein abundance data for the HIV LTR and find that noise in mRNA and protein expression scales inversely with the mean along analytically predicted transcriptional burst-size manifolds. We then experimentally perturb transcriptional activity to test a prediction of the multiple burst-size model: thatmore » increasing burst frequency will cause mRNA noise to decrease along given burst-size lines as mRNA levels increase. In conclusion, the data show that mRNA and protein noise decrease as mean expression increases, supporting the canonical inverse correlation between noise and mean.« less

Endothelial activation biomarkers increase after HIV-1 acquisition: plasma vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 predicts disease progression.

PubMed

Graham, Susan M; Rajwans, Nimerta; Jaoko, Walter; Estambale, Benson B A; McClelland, R Scott; Overbaugh, Julie; Liles, W Conrad

2013-07-17

We aimed to determine whether endothelial activation biomarkers increase after HIV-1 acquisition, and whether biomarker levels measured in chronic infection would predict disease progression and death in HIV-1 seroconverters. HIV-1-seronegative Kenyan women were monitored monthly for seroconversion, and followed prospectively after HIV-1 acquisition. Plasma levels of angiopoietin-1 and angiopoietin-2 (ANG-1, ANG-2) and soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1), intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1), and E-selectin were tested in stored samples from pre-infection, acute infection, and two chronic infection time points. We used nonparametric tests to compare biomarkers before and after HIV-1 acquisition, and Cox proportional-hazards regression to analyze associations with disease progression (CD4 < 200 cells/μl, stage IV disease, or antiretroviral therapy initiation) or death. Soluble ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 were elevated relative to baseline in all postinfection periods assessed (P < 0.0001). Soluble E-selectin and the ANG-2:ANG-1 ratio increased in acute infection (P = 0.0001), and ANG-1 decreased in chronic infection (P = 0.0004). Among 228 participants followed over 1028 person-years, 115 experienced disease progression or death. Plasma VCAM-1 levels measured during chronic infection were independently associated with time to HIV progression or death (adjusted hazard ratio 5.36, 95% confidence interval 1.99-14.44 per log10 increase), after adjustment for set point plasma viral load, age at infection, and soluble ICAM-1 levels. HIV-1 acquisition was associated with endothelial activation, with sustained elevations of soluble ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 postinfection. Soluble VCAM-1 may be an informative biomarker for predicting the risk of HIV-1 disease progression, morbidity, and mortality.

Endothelial Activation Biomarkers Increase after HIV-1 Acquisition: Plasma VCAM-1 Predicts Disease Progression

PubMed Central

GRAHAM, Susan M.; RAJWANS, Nimerta; JAOKO, Walter; ESTAMBALE, Benson B.A.; MCCLELLAND, R. Scott; OVERBAUGH, Julie; LILES, W. Conrad

2013-01-01

Objective We aimed to determine whether endothelial activation biomarkers increase after HIV-1 acquisition, and whether biomarker levels measured in chronic infection would predict disease progression and death in HIV-1 seroconverters. Design HIV-1-seronegative Kenyan women were monitored monthly for seroconversion, and followed prospectively after HIV-1 acquisition. Methods Plasma levels of angiopoietins-1 and -2 (ANG-1, ANG-2) and soluble vascular cell adhesion marker-1 (VCAM-1), intercellular adhesion marker-1 (ICAM-1), and E-selectin were tested in stored samples from before infection, acute infection, and at two points during chronic infection. We used non-parametric tests to compare biomarkers before and after HIV-1 acquisition, and Cox proportional-hazards regression to analyze associations with disease progression (CD4 <200 cells/μL, Stage IV disease, or ART initiation) or death. Results Soluble ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 were elevated relative to baseline in all post-infection periods assessed (p<0.0001). Soluble E-selectin and the ANG-2:ANG-1 ratio increased in acute infection (p=0.0001), and ANG-1 decreased in chronic infection (p=0.0004). Among 228 subjects followed over 1,028 person-years, 115 experienced disease progression or death. Plasma VCAM-1 levels measured during chronic infection were independently associated with time to HIV progression or death (aHR 5.36, 95% confidence interval 1.99–14.44 per log10 increase), after adjustment for set point plasma viral load, age at infection, and soluble ICAM-1 levels. Conclusions HIV-1 acquisition was associated with endothelial activation, with sustained elevations of soluble ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 post-infection. Soluble VCAM-1 may be an informative biomarker for predicting the risk of HIV-1 disease progression, morbidity, and mortality. PMID:23807276

High temporal resolution modeling of the impact of rain, tides, and sea level rise on water table flooding in the Arch Creek basin, Miami-Dade County Florida USA.

PubMed

Sukop, Michael C; Rogers, Martina; Guannel, Greg; Infanti, Johnna M; Hagemann, Katherine

2018-03-01

Modeling of groundwater levels in a portion of the low-lying coastal Arch Creek basin in northern Miami-Dade County in Southeast Florida USA, which is subject to repetitive flooding, reveals that rain-induced short-term water table rises can be viewed as a primary driver of flooding events under current conditions. Areas below 0.9m North American Vertical Datum (NAVD) elevation are particularly vulnerable and areas below 1.5m NAVD are vulnerable to exceptionally large rainfall events. Long-term water table rise is evident in the groundwater data, and the rate appears to be consistent with local rates of sea level rise. Linear extrapolation of long-term observed groundwater levels to 2060 suggest roughly a doubling of the number of days when groundwater levels exceed 0.9m NAVD and a threefold increase in the number of days when levels exceed 1.5m NAVD. Projected sea level rise of 0.61m by 2060 together with increased rainfall lead to a model prediction of frequent groundwater-related flooding in areas<0.9m NAVD. However, current simulations do not consider the range of rainfall events that have led to water table elevations>1.5m NAVD and widespread flooding of the area in the past. Tidal fluctuations in the water table are predicted to be more pronounced within 600m of a tidally influenced water control structure that is hydrodynamically connected to Biscayne Bay. The inland influence of tidal fluctuations appears to increase with increased sea level, but the principal driver of high groundwater levels under the 2060 scenario conditions remains groundwater recharge due to rainfall events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A physiologically based biodynamic (PBBD) model for estragole DNA binding in rat liver based on in vitro kinetic data and estragole DNA adduct formation in primary hepatocytes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paini, Alicia, E-mail: alicia.paini@rdls.nestle.co; Nestle Research Center, PO Box 44, Lausanne; Punt, Ans

2010-05-15

Estragole has been shown to be hepatocarcinogenic in rodent species at high-dose levels. Translation of these results into the likelihood of formation of DNA adducts, mutation, and ultimately cancer upon more realistic low-dose exposures remains a challenge. Recently we have developed physiologically based biokinetic (PBBK) models for rat and human predicting bioactivation of estragole. These PBBK models, however, predict only kinetic characteristics. The present study describes the extension of the PBBK model to a so-called physiologically based biodynamic (PBBD) model predicting in vivo DNA adduct formation of estragole in rat liver. This PBBD model was developed using in vitro datamore » on DNA adduct formation in rat primary hepatocytes exposed to 1'-hydroxyestragole. The model was extended by linking the area under the curve for 1'-hydroxyestragole formation predicted by the PBBK model to the area under the curve for 1'-hydroxyestragole in the in vitro experiments. The outcome of the PBBD model revealed a linear increase in DNA adduct formation with increasing estragole doses up to 100 mg/kg bw. Although DNA adduct formation of genotoxic carcinogens is generally seen as a biomarker of exposure rather than a biomarker of response, the PBBD model now developed is one step closer to the ultimate toxic effect of estragole than the PBBK model described previously. Comparison of the PBBD model outcome to available data showed that the model adequately predicts the dose-dependent level of DNA adduct formation. The PBBD model predicts DNA adduct formation at low levels of exposure up to a dose level showing to cause cancer in rodent bioassays, providing a proof of principle for modeling a toxicodynamic in vivo endpoint on the basis of solely in vitro experimental data.« less

Prospective Evaluation of Pharmacogenomics and Metabolite Measurements upon Azathioprine Therapy in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: An Observational Study.

PubMed

Fangbin, Zhang; Xiang, Gao; Liang, Ding; Hui, Liu; Xueding, Wang; Baili, Chen; Huichang, Bi; Yinglian, Xiao; Peng, Cheng; Lizi, Zhao; Yanjun, Chu; Feng, Xu; Minhu, Chen; Min, Huang; Pinjin, Hu

2016-04-01

Up to approximately 40% to 50% of patients discontinue thiopurine therapy during the course of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We investigated the role of the metabolite thiopurine in IBD treatment. This was a prospective study. IBD patients receiving azathioprine (AZA) were prospectively included. Thiopurine methyltransferase (TPMT) genotypes were examined before therapy, and thiopurine metabolite levels were examined at weeks 2, 4, 8, 12, 24, and 48. In total, 132 patients were included. The frequency of leucopenia increased at 6-thioguanine nucleotide (6-TGN) levels ≥420  pmol/8 × 10(8) RBC (odds ratio [OR] = 7.9; 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 3.5-18.0; P < 0.001) and increased more during the initial 12 weeks of thiopurine therapy (OR = 16.0; 95%CI: 5.7-44.9; P < 0.001). The patients with 6-TGN levels ≥420 pmol/8 × 10 RBC at weeks 4, 8, and 12 had an increased likelihood of leucopenia. Clinical response increased at 6-TGN levels ≥225 pmol/8 × 10(8) RBC (OR = 13.5; 95% CI: 3.7-48.9; P < 0.001) in Crohn disease (CD) patients. The CD patients with 6-TGN levels ≥225 pmol/8 × 10(8) RBC at weeks 8, 12, and 24 had an increased likelihood of successful clinical response. TPMT*3C had a specificity of 100%, but a sensitivity of 8% for predicting leucopenia.A 6-TGN level between 225 and 420 pmol/8 × 10(8) RBC could be a therapeutic window in patients receiving AZA therapy, and it could likely predict leucopenia in the initial 12 weeks of AZA therapy and a reasonable chance of successful clinical response in CD patients. The value of TPMT genotyping before thiopurine therapy is limited in Chinese patients with IBD, considering the low sensitivity of predicting leucopenia.

Fibrinogen concentration and its role in CVD risk in black South Africans--effect of urbanisation.

PubMed

Pieters, Marlien; de Maat, Moniek P M; Jerling, Johann C; Hoekstra, Tiny; Kruger, Annamarie

2011-09-01

The aim of this study was to investigate correlates of fibrinogen concentration in black South Africans, as well as its association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and whether urbanisation influences this association. A total of 1,006 rural and 1,004 urban black South Africans from the PURE study were cross-sectionally analysed. The association of fibrinogen with CVD risk was determined by investigating the association of fibrinogen with other CVD risk markers as well as with predicted CVD risk using the Reynolds Risk score. The rural group had a significantly higher fibrinogen concentration than the urban group, despite higher levels of risk factors and increased predicted CVD risk in the urban group. Increased levels of CVD risk factors were, however, still associated with increased fibrinogen concentration. Fibrinogen correlated significantly, but weakly, with overall predicted CVD risk. This correlation was stronger in the urban than in the rural group. Multiple regression analysis showed that a smaller percentage of the variance in fibrinogen is explained by the traditional CVD risk factors in the rural than in the urban group. In conclusion, fibrinogen is weakly associated with CVD risk (predicted overall risk as well with individual risk factors) in black South Africans, and is related to the degree of urbanisation. Increased fibrinogen concentration, in black South Africans, especially in rural areas, is largely unexplained, and likely not strongly correlated with traditional CVD-related lifestyle and pathophysiological processes. This does, however, not exclude the possibility that once increased, the fibrinogen concentration contributes to future development of CVD.

Assessing the role of Hartree-Fock exchange, correlation energy and long range corrections in evaluating ionization potential, and electron affinity in density functional theory.

PubMed

Vikramaditya, Talapunur; Lin, Shiang-Tai

2017-06-05

Accurate determination of ionization potentials (IPs), electron affinities (EAs), fundamental gaps (FGs), and HOMO, LUMO energy levels of organic molecules play an important role in modeling and predicting the efficiencies of organic photovoltaics, OLEDs etc. In this work, we investigate the effects of Hartree Fock (HF) Exchange, correlation energy, and long range corrections in predicting IP and EA in Hybrid Functionals. We observe increase in percentage of HF exchange results in increase of IPs and decrease in EAs. Contrary to the general expectations inclusion of both HF exchange and correlation energy (from the second order perturbation theory MP2) leads to poor prediction. Range separated Hybrid Functionals are found to be more reliable among various DFT Functionals investigated. DFT Functionals predict accurate IPs whereas post HF methods predict accurate EAs. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The discomfort produced by noise and whole-body vertical vibration presented separately and in combination.

PubMed

Huang, Yu; Griffin, Michael J

2014-01-01

This study investigated the prediction of the discomfort caused by simultaneous noise and vibration from the discomfort caused by noise and the discomfort caused by vibration when they are presented separately. A total of 24 subjects used absolute magnitude estimation to report their discomfort caused by seven levels of noise (70-88 dBA SEL), 7 magnitudes of vibration (0.146-2.318 ms(- 1.75)) and all 49 possible combinations of these noise and vibration stimuli. Vibration did not significantly influence judgements of noise discomfort, but noise reduced vibration discomfort by an amount that increased with increasing noise level, consistent with a 'masking effect' of noise on judgements of vibration discomfort. A multiple linear regression model or a root-sums-of-squares model predicted the discomfort caused by combined noise and vibration, but the root-sums-of-squares model is more convenient and provided a more accurate prediction of the discomfort produced by combined noise and vibration.

Migration phenology and breeding success are predicted by methylation of a photoperiodic gene in the barn swallow

PubMed Central

Saino, Nicola; Ambrosini, Roberto; Albetti, Benedetta; Caprioli, Manuela; De Giorgio, Barbara; Gatti, Emanuele; Liechti, Felix; Parolini, Marco; Romano, Andrea; Romano, Maria; Scandolara, Chiara; Gianfranceschi, Luca; Bollati, Valentina; Rubolini, Diego

2017-01-01

Individuals often considerably differ in the timing of their life-cycle events, with major consequences for individual fitness, and, ultimately, for population dynamics. Phenological variation can arise from genetic effects but also from epigenetic modifications in DNA expression and translation. Here, we tested if CpG methylation at the poly-Q and 5′-UTR loci of the photoperiodic Clock gene predicted migration and breeding phenology of long-distance migratory barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) that were tracked year-round using light-level geolocators. Increasing methylation at Clock poly-Q was associated with earlier spring departure from the African wintering area, arrival date at the European breeding site, and breeding date. Higher methylation levels also predicted increased breeding success. Thus, we showed for the first time in any species that CpG methylation at a candidate gene may affect phenology and breeding performance. Methylation at Clock may be a candidate mechanism mediating phenological responses of migratory birds to ongoing climate change. PMID:28361883

A Systems Model of Parkinson's Disease Using Biochemical Systems Theory.

PubMed

Sasidharakurup, Hemalatha; Melethadathil, Nidheesh; Nair, Bipin; Diwakar, Shyam

2017-08-01

Parkinson's disease (PD), a neurodegenerative disorder, affects millions of people and has gained attention because of its clinical roles affecting behaviors related to motor and nonmotor symptoms. Although studies on PD from various aspects are becoming popular, few rely on predictive systems modeling approaches. Using Biochemical Systems Theory (BST), this article attempts to model and characterize dopaminergic cell death and understand pathophysiology of progression of PD. PD pathways were modeled using stochastic differential equations incorporating law of mass action, and initial concentrations for the modeled proteins were obtained from literature. Simulations suggest that dopamine levels were reduced significantly due to an increase in dopaminergic quinones and 3,4-dihydroxyphenylacetaldehyde (DOPAL) relating to imbalances compared to control during PD progression. Associating to clinically observed PD-related cell death, simulations show abnormal parkin and reactive oxygen species levels with an increase in neurofibrillary tangles. While relating molecular mechanistic roles, the BST modeling helps predicting dopaminergic cell death processes involved in the progression of PD and provides a predictive understanding of neuronal dysfunction for translational neuroscience.

Pre-Assault Personality Predicts the Nature of Adverse Outcomes Among Sexual Assault Victims.

PubMed

Combs, Jessica L; Riley, Elizabeth N; Peterson, Sarah J; Jordan, Carol E; Smith, Gregory T

2018-03-01

Exposure to sexual assault results in ongoing harms for women. After an assault, some women engage in higher levels of externalizing behaviors, such as problem drinking, and others experience higher levels of internalizing dysfunction, such as symptoms of anxiety and depression. We sought to understand the role of premorbid factors on the different post-assault experiences of women. We studied 1,929 women prospectively during a period of high risk for sexual assault (the first year of college): women were assessed in July before arriving at college and in April near the end of the school year. A premorbid personality disposition to act impulsively when distressed (negative urgency) interacted positively with sexual assault experience to predict subsequent increases in drinking behavior; a premorbid personality disposition toward internalizing dysfunction positively interacted with sexual assault experience to predict increased symptoms of anxiety and depression. Women with different personalities tend to experience different forms of post-assault consequences.

Migration phenology and breeding success are predicted by methylation of a photoperiodic gene in the barn swallow.

PubMed

Saino, Nicola; Ambrosini, Roberto; Albetti, Benedetta; Caprioli, Manuela; De Giorgio, Barbara; Gatti, Emanuele; Liechti, Felix; Parolini, Marco; Romano, Andrea; Romano, Maria; Scandolara, Chiara; Gianfranceschi, Luca; Bollati, Valentina; Rubolini, Diego

2017-03-31

Individuals often considerably differ in the timing of their life-cycle events, with major consequences for individual fitness, and, ultimately, for population dynamics. Phenological variation can arise from genetic effects but also from epigenetic modifications in DNA expression and translation. Here, we tested if CpG methylation at the poly-Q and 5'-UTR loci of the photoperiodic Clock gene predicted migration and breeding phenology of long-distance migratory barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) that were tracked year-round using light-level geolocators. Increasing methylation at Clock poly-Q was associated with earlier spring departure from the African wintering area, arrival date at the European breeding site, and breeding date. Higher methylation levels also predicted increased breeding success. Thus, we showed for the first time in any species that CpG methylation at a candidate gene may affect phenology and breeding performance. Methylation at Clock may be a candidate mechanism mediating phenological responses of migratory birds to ongoing climate change.

MMP-7, sFas and FasL serum levels for predicting docetaxel resistance and survival in castration-resistant prostate cancer.

PubMed

Szarvas, Tibor; Sevcenco, Sabina; Módos, Orsolya; Keresztes, Dávid; Nyirády, Péter; Csizmarik, Anita; Ristl, Robin; Puhr, Martin; Hoffmann, Michèle J; Niedworok, Christian; Hadaschik, Boris; Maj-Hes, Agnieszka; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Kramer, Gero

2018-05-26

To assess the predictive value of pre-chemotherapy MMP-7, sFas, FasL serum levels as well as their changes during therapy. Serum levels of MMP-7, Fas and FasL were determined by ELISA in 96 CRPC patients; 21 docetaxel-resistant who received one single series and 75 docetaxel-sensitive who received repeated series of docetaxel. In addition to the 96 pretreatment serum samples, 987 sera collected during chemotherapy were also analysed. Higher pretreatment serum MMP-7, sFas and PSA levels were significantly associated with both docetaxel-resistance (p=0.007, p=0.001, p<0.001, respectively) and shorter cancer-specific survival (p<0.001, p=0.041, p<0.001, respectively). High MMP-7 remained an independent predictor of both docetaxel resistance (HR: 2.298, 95% CI: 1.354-3.899, p=0.002) and poor cancer-specific survival (HR=2.11, 95%Cl 1.36-3.30, p=0.001) in multivariable analyses. Higher increase of MMP-7 levels in the 2 nd treatment holiday and higher increase of PSA levels in the 1 st and 2 nd holidays were predictive of survival. Pretreatment serum MMP-7 levels may help to select CRPC patients who are likely to benefit from docetaxel chemotherapy. Furthermore, MMP-7 alone or in combination with PSA could be used for therapy monitoring. Correlative studies embedded in clinical trials are necessary to validate these biomarkers for clinical decision-making. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Self-Reported Health and Safety Awareness Improves Prediction of Level of Care Needs in Veterans Discharged From a Postacute Unit.

PubMed

Stelmokas, Julija; Bieliauskas, Linas A; Kitchen Andren, Katherine A; Hogikyan, Robert; Alexander, Neil B

2017-11-01

To evaluate the differential value of a self-reported health and safety awareness measure relative to other medical, psychosocial, and cognitive factors in predicting level of care (LOC) needs after hospital discharge. Retrospective medical record review. Community living center postacute care (CLC-PAC) unit at a Veterans Affairs hospital. A total of 175 veterans admitted to the Veterans Affairs hospital or directly to the CLC-PAC from home. Cognitive status was assessed with the Mini-Mental State Examination, Digit Span Backward subtest, Trail Making Test (Part B), and Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised. Self-report of health and safety awareness was measured with the Independent Living Scales Health and Safety (ILS-HS) subscale. Additional demographic and admission-related variables were coded, along with medical comorbidity, with the Charlson Comorbidity Index and depression using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition, Text Revision Depression Checklist. Increased level of care was collected from social work and occupational therapy notes and defined as increased assistance with activities of daily living or nursing home placement comparing prehospitalization with CLC-PAC discharge. A total of 19% (n = 34) of residents required increased LOC on CLC-PAC discharge. The ILS-HS was a significant predictor of increased LOC above and beyond age and Mini Mental Status Examination score; for each standard deviation decrease in ILS-HS, there was an increased likelihood of greater LOC (odds ratio 0. 54, 95% confidence interval 0.35-0.83). Other neuropsychological tests (memory, executive functioning) did not significantly improve the model. The inclusion of the ILS-HS to a standard cognitive screen (Mini Mental Status Examination) can improve prediction of increased LOC. Although select aspects of memory and executive functioning independently contribute to increased LOC prediction, the ILS-HS likely measures a unique aspect of cognitive functioning that may be specific to discharge planning needs in CLC-PAC residents. II. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Air Pollution and ST-Segment Depression in Elderly Subjects

PubMed Central

Gold, Diane R.; Litonjua, Augusto A.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Coull, Brent A.; Schwartz, Joel; MacCallum, Gail; Verrier, Richard L.; Nearing, Bruce D.; Canner, Marina J.; Suh, Helen; Stone, Peter H.

2005-01-01

Increased levels of daily ambient particle pollution have been associated with increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity. Black carbon (BC) is a measure of the traffic-related component of particles. We investigated associations between ambient pollution and ST-segment levels in a repeated-measures study including 269 observations on 24 active Boston residents 61–88 years of age, each observed up to 12 times from June through September 1999. The protocol involved continuous Holter electrocardiogram monitoring including 5 min of rest, 5 min of standing, 5 min of exercise outdoors, 5 min of recovery, and 20 cycles of paced breathing. Pollution-associated ST-depression was estimated for a 10th- to 90th-percentile change in BC. We calculated the average ST-segment level, referenced to the P-R isoelectric values, for each portion of the protocol. The mean BC level in the previous 12 hr, and the BC level 5 hr before testing, predicted ST-segment depression in most portions of the protocol, but the effect was strongest in the postexercise periods. During post-exercise rest, an elevated BC level was associated with −0.1 mm ST-segment depression (p = 0.02 for 12-hr mean BC; p = 0.001 for 5-hr BC) in continuous models. Elevated BC also predicted increased risk of ST-segment depression ≥0.5 mm among those with at least one episode of that level of ST-segment depression. Carbon monoxide was not a confounder of this association. ST-segment depression, possibly representing myocardial ischemia or inflammation, is associated with increased exposure to particles whose predominant source is traffic. PMID:16002377

Influence of predicted climage change elements on Z. japonica distribution in Washington State

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate change (GCC) is expected to have pronounced impacts on estuarine and marine habitats including sea level rise, increased storm intensity, increased air and water temperatures, changes in upwelling dynamics and ocean acidification. All of these elements are likely ...

The relationship between cigarette taxes and child maltreatment.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Michael

2018-05-01

Prior research suggests that income and child maltreatment are related, but questions remain about the specific types of economic factors that affect the risk of maltreatment. The need to understand the role of economics in child welfare is critical, given the significant public health costs of child maltreatment. One factor that has been overlooked is regressive taxation. This study addresses this need by examining whether state-level changes in cigarette tax rates predict changes in state-level child maltreatment rates. The results of both a fixed effects (FE) and a fixed effects instrumental variables (FE-IV) estimator show that increases in state cigarette tax rates are followed by increases in child abuse and neglect. An additional test finds that increases in the sales tax (another tax deemed to be regressive) also predict increases in child maltreatment rates. Taken as a whole, the findings suggest that regressive taxes have a significant effect on the risk of child maltreatment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shared Relationship Efficacy of Dyad Can Increase Life Satisfaction in Close Relationships: Multilevel Study

PubMed Central

Ito, Kenichi; Yoshida, Toshikazu

2016-01-01

Characteristics of relationship itself play an important role in determining well-being of individuals who participate in the relationship. We used efficacy expectations mutually shared between close friends or romantic partners as a characteristic of relationship and investigated its impact on their life satisfaction. In Study 1, we conducted a cross-sectional study among 137 pairs of close same-sex friends to test whether the efficacy expectations shared between friends are associated with levels of life satisfaction. In Study 2, we conducted a longitudinal study among 114 heterosexual romantic couples to test predictive validity of the efficacy expectations shared between couples predict levels of life satisfaction 2 month later. In both studies we found a consistent result that as degrees of the efficacy expectations shared between individuals in a relationship increased, the degree of their life satisfaction also increased. Underlying mechanisms that explain how characteristics of relationship itself increase life satisfaction are discussed. PMID:27437946

Infant stranger fear trajectories predict anxious behaviors and diurnal cortisol rhythm during childhood.

PubMed

Van Hulle, Carol A; Moore, Mollie N; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn; Goldsmith, H Hill; Brooker, Rebecca J

2017-08-01

Although a robust literature has linked stable, high levels of fear across childhood to increased risk for anxiety problems, less is known about alternative pathways to anxiety. We tested two putatively normative developmental pathways of early fearfulness for their distinct associations with behavioral (anxiety-related behaviors and symptoms) and biological (diurnal cortisol) markers of anxiety risk in middle childhood in a community-based sample (n = 107). Steeper increases in fear from 6 to 36 months predicted more parent-reported anxiety symptoms at age 8 years. In addition, children who exhibited steep increases in fear during infancy were overrepresented among children with diagnoses of separation anxiety disorder at age 8 years. Finally, we showed that steeper increases in fearfulness in infancy predicted flatter slopes of diurnal cortisol at age 8 years for girls. Thus, differences in stranger fear across infancy may indicate varying degrees of risk for anxious behaviors in later childhood.

Relations among Affect, Abstinence Motivation and Confidence, and Daily Smoking Lapse Risk

PubMed Central

Minami, Haruka; Yeh, Vivian M.; Bold, Krysten W.; Chapman, Gretchen B.; McCarthy, Danielle E.

2016-01-01

Aims This study tested the hypothesis that changes in momentary affect, abstinence motivation, and confidence would predict lapse risk over the next 12–24 hours using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) data from smokers attempting to quit smoking. Method 103 adult, daily, treatment-seeking smokers recorded their momentary affect, motivation to quit, abstinence confidence, and smoking behaviors in near real time with multiple EMA reports per day using electronic diaries post-quit. Results Multilevel models indicated that initial levels of negative affect were associated with smoking, even after controlling for earlier smoking status, and that short-term increases in negative affect predicted lapses up to 12, but not 24, hours later. Positive affect had significant effects on subsequent abstinence confidence, but not motivation to quit. High levels of motivation appeared to reduce increases in lapse risk that occur over hours while momentary changes in confidence did not predict lapse risk over 12 hours. Conclusion Negative affect had short-lived effects on lapse risk, whereas higher levels of motivation protected against the risk of lapsing that accumulates over hours. An increase in positive affect was associated with greater confidence to quit, but such changes in confidence did not reduce short-term lapse risk, contrary to expectations. Relations observed among affect, cognitions, and lapse seem to depend critically on the timing of assessments. PMID:24955665

Race/Ethnicity and the Pharmacogenetics of Reported Suicidality With Efavirenz Among Clinical Trials Participants.

PubMed

Mollan, Katie R; Tierney, Camlin; Hellwege, Jacklyn N; Eron, Joseph J; Hudgens, Michael G; Gulick, Roy M; Haubrich, Richard; Sax, Paul E; Campbell, Thomas B; Daar, Eric S; Robertson, Kevin R; Ventura, Diana; Ma, Qing; Edwards, Digna R Velez; Haas, David W

2017-09-01

We examined associations between suicidality and genotypes that predict plasma efavirenz exposure among AIDS Clinical Trials Group study participants in the United States. Four clinical trials randomly assigned treatment-naive participants to efavirenz-containing regimens; suicidality was defined as reported suicidal ideation or attempted or completed suicide. Genotypes that predict plasma efavirenz exposure were defined by CYP2B6 and CYP2A6 polymorphisms. Associations were evaluated with weighted Cox proportional hazards models stratified by race/ethnicity. Additional analyses adjusted for genetic ancestry and selected covariates. Among 1833 participants, suicidality was documented in 41 in exposed analyses, and 34 in on-treatment analyses. In unadjusted analyses based on 12 genotype levels, suicidality increased per level in exposed (hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, .96-1.27) and on-treatment 1.16; 1.01-1.34) analyses. In the on-treatment analysis, the association was strongest among white but nearly null among black participants. Considering 3 metabolizer levels (extensive, intermediate and slow), slow metabolizers were at increased risk. Results were similar after baseline covariate-adjustment for genetic ancestry, sex, age, weight, injection drug use history, and psychiatric history or recent psychoactive medication. Genotypes that predict higher plasma efavirenz exposure were associated with increased risk of suicidality. Strength of association varied by race/ethnicity. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

The Onset of Depression During the Great Recession: Foreclosure and Older Adult Mental Health

PubMed Central

Cagney, Kathleen A.; Browning, Christopher R.; Iveniuk, James; English, Ned

2014-01-01

Objectives. We examined neighborhood-level foreclosure rates and their association with onset of depressive symptoms in older adults. Methods. We linked data from the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project (2005–2006 and 2010–2011 waves), a longitudinal, nationally representative survey, to data on zip code–level foreclosure rates, and predicted the onset of depressive symptoms using logit-linked regression. Results. Multiple stages of the foreclosure process predicted the onset of depressive symptoms, with adjustment for demographic characteristics and changes in household assets, neighborhood poverty, and visible neighborhood disorder. A large increase in the number of notices of default (odds ratio [OR] = 1.75; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.14, 2.67) and properties returning to ownership by the bank (OR = 1.62; 95% CI = 1.06, 2.47) were associated with depressive symptoms. A large increase in properties going to auction was suggestive of such an association (OR = 1.45; 95% CI = 0.96, 2.19). Age, fewer years of education, and functional limitations also were predictive. Conclusions. Increases in neighborhood-level foreclosure represent an important risk factor for depression in older adults. These results accord with previous studies suggesting that the effects of economic crises are typically first experienced through deficits in emotional well-being. PMID:24446830

Role of masker predictability in the cocktail party problem1

PubMed Central

Jones, Gary L.; Litovsky, Ruth Y.

2008-01-01

In studies of the cocktail party problem, the number and locations of maskers are typically fixed throughout a block of trials, which leaves out uncertainty that exists in real-world environments. The current experiments examined whether there is (1) improved speech intelligibility and (2) increased spatial release from masking (SRM), as predictability of the number∕locations of speech maskers is increased. In the first experiment, subjects identified a target word presented at a fixed level in the presence of 0, 1, or 2 maskers as predictability of the masker configuration ranged from 10% to 80%. The second experiment examined speech reception thresholds and SRM as (a) predictability of the masker configuration is increased from 20% to 80% and∕or (b) the complexity of the listening environment is decreased. In the third experiment, predictability of the masker configuration was increased from 20% up to 100% while minimizing the onset delay between maskers and the target. All experiments showed no effect of predictability of the masker configuration on speech intelligibility or SRM. These results suggest that knowing the number and location(s) of maskers may not necessarily contribute significantly to solving the cocktail party problem, at least not when the location of the target is known. PMID:19206808

Predicting Dropout Using Student- and School-Level Factors: An Ecological Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Laura; Kiperman, Sarah; Esch, Rachel C.; Leroux, Audrey J.; Truscott, Stephen D.

2017-01-01

High school dropout has been associated with negative outcomes, including increased rates of unemployment, incarceration, and mortality. Dropout rates vary significantly depending on individual and environmental factors. The purpose of our study was to use an ecological perspective to concurrently explore student- and school-level predictors…

Changes to anti-JCV antibody levels in a Swedish national MS cohort

PubMed Central

Warnke, Clemens; Ramanujam, Ryan; Plavina, Tatiana; Bergström, Tomas; Goelz, Susan; Subramanyam, Meena; Kockum, Ingrid; Rahbar, Afsar; Kieseier, Bernd C; Holmén, Carolina; Olsson, Tomas; Hillert, Jan; Fogdell-Hahn, Anna

2013-01-01

Background The anti-JC virus (JCV) antibody status has been introduced to stratify patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) for higher or lower risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). Objective To assess the potential utility of anti-JCV antibody levels for earlier diagnosis or prediction of PML. Methods An analytically validated antibody assay was used to determine serological status, normalised optical density values, and dilution titres for anti-JCV antibodies. The method was applied to stored sera of 1157 patients with MS including five cases of PML, all enrolled in the Swedish pharmacovigilance study for natalizumab (NAT). Anticytomegalovirus (CMV) and antivaricella-zoster (VZV) antibody levels served as controls. Results Prior to treatment with NAT, anti-JCV antibody levels were stable in the anti-JCV positive patients. During therapy, a slight decrease in anti-JCV and anti-VZV antibody levels, but not anti-CMV antibody levels, was observed. All five patients who developed PML showed a mild to moderate increase in anti-JCV antibody levels at time of PML diagnosis; pre-PML samples suggested that this increase might start already prior to diagnosis of PML. Conclusions Treatment initiation with NAT may lead to a slight decrease in anti-JCV and anti-VZV antibody levels, suggestive of a mild suppressive effect of NAT on antibody levels. Our findings in five cases of PML demonstrate that the onset of PML can be accompanied by increasing anti-JCV antibodies in serum. Monitoring of anti-JCV antibody levels could potentially be used as a tool for prediction or earlier diagnosis of PML during NAT treatment for MS. Further studies are warranted. PMID:23463870

Changes to anti-JCV antibody levels in a Swedish national MS cohort.

PubMed

Warnke, Clemens; Ramanujam, Ryan; Plavina, Tatiana; Bergström, Tomas; Goelz, Susan; Subramanyam, Meena; Kockum, Ingrid; Rahbar, Afsar; Kieseier, Bernd C; Holmén, Carolina; Olsson, Tomas; Hillert, Jan; Fogdell-Hahn, Anna

2013-11-01

The anti-JC virus (JCV) antibody status has been introduced to stratify patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) for higher or lower risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). To assess the potential utility of anti-JCV antibody levels for earlier diagnosis or prediction of PML. An analytically validated antibody assay was used to determine serological status, normalised optical density values, and dilution titres for anti-JCV antibodies. The method was applied to stored sera of 1157 patients with MS including five cases of PML, all enrolled in the Swedish pharmacovigilance study for natalizumab (NAT). Anticytomegalovirus (CMV) and antivaricella-zoster (VZV) antibody levels served as controls. Prior to treatment with NAT, anti-JCV antibody levels were stable in the anti-JCV positive patients. During therapy, a slight decrease in anti-JCV and anti-VZV antibody levels, but not anti-CMV antibody levels, was observed. All five patients who developed PML showed a mild to moderate increase in anti-JCV antibody levels at time of PML diagnosis; pre-PML samples suggested that this increase might start already prior to diagnosis of PML. Treatment initiation with NAT may lead to a slight decrease in anti-JCV and anti-VZV antibody levels, suggestive of a mild suppressive effect of NAT on antibody levels. Our findings in five cases of PML demonstrate that the onset of PML can be accompanied by increasing anti-JCV antibodies in serum. Monitoring of anti-JCV antibody levels could potentially be used as a tool for prediction or earlier diagnosis of PML during NAT treatment for MS. Further studies are warranted.

Corticosterone predicts foraging behavior and parental care in macaroni penguins.

PubMed

Crossin, Glenn T; Trathan, Phil N; Phillips, Richard A; Gorman, Kristen B; Dawson, Alistair; Sakamoto, Kentaro Q; Williams, Tony D

2012-07-01

Corticosterone has received considerable attention as the principal hormonal mediator of allostasis or physiological stress in wild animals. More recently, it has also been implicated in the regulation of parental care in breeding birds, particularly with respect to individual variation in foraging behavior and provisioning effort. There is also evidence that prolactin can work either inversely or additively with corticosterone to achieve this. Here we test the hypothesis that endogenous corticosterone plays a key physiological role in the control of foraging behavior and parental care, using a combination of exogenous corticosterone treatment, time-depth telemetry, and physiological sampling of female macaroni penguins (Eudyptes chrysolophus) during the brood-guard period of chick rearing, while simultaneously monitoring patterns of prolactin secretion. Plasma corticosterone levels were significantly higher in females given exogenous implants relative to those receiving sham implants. Increased corticosterone levels were associated with significantly higher levels of foraging and diving activity and greater mass gain in implanted females. Elevated plasma corticosterone was also associated with an apparent fitness benefit in the form of increased chick mass. Plasma prolactin levels did not correlate with corticosterone levels at any time, nor was prolactin correlated with any measure of foraging behavior or parental care. Our results provide support for the corticosterone-adaptation hypothesis, which predicts that higher corticosterone levels support increased foraging activity and parental effort.

Chronic ethanol feeding causes depression of mitochondrial elongation factor Tu in the rat liver: implications for the mitochondrial ribosome.

PubMed

Weiser, Brian; Gonye, Gregory; Sykora, Peter; Crumm, Sara; Cahill, Alan

2011-05-01

Chronic ethanol feeding is known to negatively impact hepatic energy metabolism. Previous studies have indicated that the underlying lesion responsible for this may lie at the level of the mitoribosome. The aim of this study was to characterize the structure of the hepatic mitoribosome in alcoholic male rats and their isocalorically paired controls. Our experiments revealed that chronic ethanol feeding resulted in a significant depletion of both structural (death-associated protein 3) and functional [elongation factor thermo unstable (EF-Tu)] mitoribosomal proteins. In addition, significant increases were found in nucleotide elongation factor thermo stable (EF-Ts) and structural mitochondrial ribosomal protein L12 (MRPL12). The increase in MRPL12 was found to correlate with an increase in the levels of the 39S large mitoribosomal subunit. These changes were accompanied by decreased levels of nuclear- and mitochondrially encoded respiratory subunits, decreased amounts of intact respiratory complexes, decreased hepatic ATP levels, and depressed mitochondrial translation. Mathematical modeling of ethanol-mediated changes in EF-Tu and EF-Ts using prederived kinetic data predicted that the ethanol-mediated decrease in EF-Tu levels could completely account for the impaired mitochondrial protein synthesis. In conclusion, chronic ethanol feeding results in a depletion of mitochondrial EF-Tu levels within the liver that is mathematically predicted to be responsible for the impaired mitochondrial protein synthesis seen in alcoholic animals.

Anti-Correlated Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarker Trajectories in Preclinical Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Gomar, Jesus J; Conejero-Goldberg, Concepcion; Davies, Peter; Goldberg, Terry E

2016-01-01

The earliest stage of preclinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) is defined by low levels of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) amyloid-β (Aβ42). However, covariance in longitudinal dynamic change of Aβ42 and tau in incipient preclinical AD is poorly understood. To examine dynamic interrelationships between Aβ42 and tau in preclinical AD. We followed 47 cognitively intact participants (CI) with available CSF data over four years in ADNI. Based on longitudinal Aβ42 levels in CSF, CI were classified into three groups: 1) Aβ42 stable with normal levels of Aβ42 over time (n = 15); 2) Aβ42 declining with normal Aβ42 levels at baseline but showing decline over time (n = 14); and 3) Aβ42 levels consistently abnormal (n = 18). In the Aβ42 declining group, suggestive of incipient preclinical AD, CSF phosphorylated tau (p-tau) showed a similar longitudinal pattern of increasing abnormality over time (p = 0.0001). Correlation between longitudinal slopes of Aβ42 and p-tau confirmed that both trajectories were anti-correlated (rho = -0.60; p = 0.02). Regression analysis showed that Aβ42 slope (decreasing Aβ42) predicted p-tau slope (increasing p-tau) (R2 = 0.47, p = 0.03). Atrophy in the hippocampus was predicted by the interaction of Aβ42 and p-tau slopes (p <  0.0001) only in this incipient preclinical AD group. In all groups combined, memory decline was predicted by p-tau. The evolution of Aβ42 and p-tau CSF biomarkers in CI subjects follows an anti-correlated trajectory, i.e., as Aβ42 declined, p-tau increased, and thus was suggestive of strong temporal coincidence. Rapid pathogenic cross-talk between Aβ42 and p-tau thus may be evident in very early stages of preclinical AD.

Large-scale population analysis reveals an extremely low threshold for "non-healthy" alanine aminotransferase that predicts diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Shlomai, Amir; Kariv, Revital; Leshno, Moshe; Beth-or, Anat; Sheinberg, Bracha; Halpern, Zamir

2010-10-01

Serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) is commonly used to detect liver damage. Recent studies indicate that ALT levels at the upper range of normal limits are predictors of adverse outcomes, especially diabetes mellitus (DM) and the metabolic syndrome. The aim of our study was to define the ALT threshold for both men and women that may predict the onset of DM. We analyzed a large Health Maintenance Organization cohort of 157 308 healthy subjects with no evidence of liver disease and with baseline ALT levels ≤ 120 U/L, and identified those who developed DM within 6 years. Overall, an elevated baseline serum ALT value was significantly associated with the development of DM, with an odds ratio of 3.3 when comparing the higher and the lower quartiles of the whole study population. A subgroup analysis revealed that baseline ALT values higher than 10 U/L among women and 22 U/L among men were already significantly associated with an increased risk for DM for any increment in ALT level. Notably, ALT values higher than ∼55 U/L were associated with increased risk for DM that was relatively constant for any increment in ALT. Higher baseline ALT levels were stronger predictors for DM as compared with age, triglycerides and cholesterol levels. Our study implies that ALT values higher than 10 U/L and 22 U/L for women and men, respectively, may predict DM. We suggest redefining ALT values as either 'normal' or 'healthy', with the later reflecting much lower values, above which an individual is at increased risk for DM. © 2010 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Modeling the influence of precipitation and nitrogen deposition on forest understory fuel connectivity in Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest

Treesearch

M. Hurteau; M. North; T. Foines

2009-01-01

Climate change models for California’s Sierra Nevada predict greater inter-annual variability in precipitation over the next 50 years. These increases in precipitation variability coupled with increases in nitrogen deposition fromfossil fuel consumption are likely to result in increased productivity levels and significant increases in...

Development of a Geographic Information System (GIS) tool for the preliminary assessment of the effects of predicted sea level and tidal change on transportation infrastructure : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-01-01

The longest record of sea levels in the Western Hemisphere began in 1846 in Key West, Florida. It shows a steady and gradually accelerating sea level rise (SLR) nine inches since 1900. The increasing rate of recent years has implications for Flor...

Do Predictors of Career Success Differ between Swedish Women and Men? Data from the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH).

PubMed

Nyberg, Anna; Magnusson Hanson, Linda L; Leineweber, Constanze; Johansson, Gunn

2015-01-01

The aim of this prospective study was to explore predictors of objective career success among Swedish women and men, focussing on gender differences. Data were drawn from the 2008 and 2010 waves of the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH) with a total of 3670 female and 2773 male participants. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for job promotion and an above-average salary increase between 2008 and 2010 were obtained through binary logistic regression analyses. Individual and organisational factors measured in 2008 were used as predictors in analyses stratified by sex. Mutual adjustment was performed for these variables, as well as for labour market sector and staff category at baseline. In both sexes, younger age predicted both job promotion and an above-average salary increase. Job promotion was also in both sexes predicted by being part of decision-making processes, having conflicts with superiors, and being eager to advance. Furthermore, promotion was predicted by, among men, being educated to post-graduate level and having an open coping strategy and, among women, working >60 hours/week. An above-average salary increase was predicted in both sexes by having a university education. Postgraduate education, having children living at home, and being very motivated to advance predicted an above-average salary increase among women, as did working 51-60 hours/week and being part of decision-making processes in men. Gender differences were seen in several predictors. In conclusion, the results support previous findings of gender differences in predictors of career success. A high level of education, motivation to advance, and procedural justice appear to be more important predictors of career success among women, while open coping was a more important predictor among men.

Do Predictors of Career Success Differ between Swedish Women and Men? Data from the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH)

PubMed Central

Nyberg, Anna; Johansson, Gunn

2015-01-01

The aim of this prospective study was to explore predictors of objective career success among Swedish women and men, focussing on gender differences. Data were drawn from the 2008 and 2010 waves of the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH) with a total of 3670 female and 2773 male participants. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for job promotion and an above-average salary increase between 2008 and 2010 were obtained through binary logistic regression analyses. Individual and organisational factors measured in 2008 were used as predictors in analyses stratified by sex. Mutual adjustment was performed for these variables, as well as for labour market sector and staff category at baseline. In both sexes, younger age predicted both job promotion and an above-average salary increase. Job promotion was also in both sexes predicted by being part of decision-making processes, having conflicts with superiors, and being eager to advance. Furthermore, promotion was predicted by, among men, being educated to post-graduate level and having an open coping strategy and, among women, working >60 hours/week. An above-average salary increase was predicted in both sexes by having a university education. Postgraduate education, having children living at home, and being very motivated to advance predicted an above-average salary increase among women, as did working 51–60 hours/week and being part of decision-making processes in men. Gender differences were seen in several predictors. In conclusion, the results support previous findings of gender differences in predictors of career success. A high level of education, motivation to advance, and procedural justice appear to be more important predictors of career success among women, while open coping was a more important predictor among men. PMID:26501351

Herd factors associated with dairy cow mortality.

PubMed

McConnel, C; Lombard, J; Wagner, B; Kopral, C; Garry, F

2015-08-01

Summary studies of dairy cow removal indicate increasing levels of mortality over the past several decades. This poses a serious problem for the US dairy industry. The objective of this project was to evaluate associations between facilities, herd management practices, disease occurrence and death rates on US dairy operations through an analysis of the National Animal Health Monitoring System's Dairy 2007 survey. The survey included farms in 17 states that represented 79.5% of US dairy operations and 82.5% of the US dairy cow population. During the first phase of the study operations were randomly selected from a sampling list maintained by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Only farms that participated in phase I and had 30 or more dairy cows were eligible to participate in phase II. In total, 459 farms had complete data for all selected variables and were included in this analysis. Univariable associations between dairy cow mortality and 162 a priori identified operation-level management practices or characteristics were evaluated. Sixty of the 162 management factors explored in the univariate analysis met initial screening criteria and were further evaluated in a multivariable model exploring more complex relationships. The final weighted, negative binomial regression model included six variables. Based on the incidence rate ratio, this model predicted 32.0% less mortality for operations that vaccinated heifers for at least one of the following: bovine viral diarrhea, infectious bovine rhinotracheitis, parainfluenza 3, bovine respiratory syncytial virus, Haemophilus somnus, leptospirosis, Salmonella, Escherichia coli or clostridia. The final multivariable model also predicted a 27.0% increase in mortality for operations from which a bulk tank milk sample tested ELISA positive for bovine leukosis virus. Additionally, an 18.0% higher mortality was predicted for operations that used necropsies to determine the cause of death for some proportion of dead dairy cows. The final model also predicted that increased proportions of dairy cows with clinical mastitis and infertility problems were associated with increased mortality. Finally, an increase in mortality was predicted to be associated with an increase in the proportion of lame or injured permanently removed dairy cows. In general terms, this model identified that mortality was associated with reproductive problems, non-infectious postpartum disease, infectious disease and infectious disease prevention, and information derived from postmortem evaluations. Ultimately, addressing excessive mortality levels requires a concerted effort that recognizes and appropriately manages the numerous and diverse underlying risks.

Prognostic value of choline and betaine depends on intestinal microbiota-generated metabolite trimethylamine-N-oxide.

PubMed

Wang, Zeneng; Tang, W H Wilson; Buffa, Jennifer A; Fu, Xiaoming; Britt, Earl B; Koeth, Robert A; Levison, Bruce S; Fan, Yiying; Wu, Yuping; Hazen, Stanley L

2014-04-01

Recent metabolomics and animal model studies show trimethylamine-N-oxide (TMAO), an intestinal microbiota-dependent metabolite formed from dietary trimethylamine-containing nutrients such as phosphatidylcholine (PC), choline, and carnitine, is linked to coronary artery disease pathogenesis. Our aim was to examine the prognostic value of systemic choline and betaine levels in stable cardiac patients. We examined the relationship between fasting plasma choline and betaine levels and risk of major adverse cardiac events (MACE = death, myocardial infraction, stroke) in relation to TMAO over 3 years of follow-up in 3903 sequential stable subjects undergoing elective diagnostic coronary angiography. In our study cohort, median (IQR) TMAO, choline, and betaine levels were 3.7 (2.4-6.2)μM, 9.8 (7.9-12.2)μM, and 41.1 (32.5-52.1)μM, respectively. Modest but statistically significant correlations were noted between TMAO and choline (r = 0.33, P < 0.001) and less between TMAO and betaine (r = 0.09, P < 0.001). Higher plasma choline and betaine levels were associated with a 1.9-fold and 1.4-fold increased risk of MACE, respectively (Quartiles 4 vs. 1; P < 0.01, each). Following adjustments for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, elevated choline [1.34 (1.03-1.74), P < 0.05], and betaine levels [1.33 (1.03-1.73), P < 0.05] each predicted increased MACE risk. Neither choline nor betaine predicted MACE risk when TMAO was added to the adjustment model, and choline and betaine predicted future risk for MACE only when TMAO was elevated. Elevated plasma levels of choline and betaine are each associated with incident MACE risk independent of traditional risk factors. However, high choline and betaine levels are only associated with higher risk of future MACE with concomitant increase in TMAO.

Prognostic value of choline and betaine depends on intestinal microbiota-generated metabolite trimethylamine-N-oxide

PubMed Central

Wang, Zeneng; Tang, W. H. Wilson; Buffa, Jennifer A.; Fu, Xiaoming; Britt, Earl B.; Koeth, Robert A.; Levison, Bruce S.; Fan, Yiying; Wu, Yuping; Hazen, Stanley L.

2014-01-01

Aims Recent metabolomics and animal model studies show trimethylamine-N-oxide (TMAO), an intestinal microbiota-dependent metabolite formed from dietary trimethylamine-containing nutrients such as phosphatidylcholine (PC), choline, and carnitine, is linked to coronary artery disease pathogenesis. Our aim was to examine the prognostic value of systemic choline and betaine levels in stable cardiac patients. Methods and results We examined the relationship between fasting plasma choline and betaine levels and risk of major adverse cardiac events (MACE = death, myocardial infraction, stroke) in relation to TMAO over 3 years of follow-up in 3903 sequential stable subjects undergoing elective diagnostic coronary angiography. In our study cohort, median (IQR) TMAO, choline, and betaine levels were 3.7 (2.4–6.2)μM, 9.8 (7.9–12.2)μM, and 41.1 (32.5–52.1)μM, respectively. Modest but statistically significant correlations were noted between TMAO and choline (r = 0.33, P < 0.001) and less between TMAO and betaine (r = 0.09, P < 0.001). Higher plasma choline and betaine levels were associated with a 1.9-fold and 1.4-fold increased risk of MACE, respectively (Quartiles 4 vs. 1; P < 0.01, each). Following adjustments for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, elevated choline [1.34 (1.03–1.74), P < 0.05], and betaine levels [1.33 (1.03–1.73), P < 0.05] each predicted increased MACE risk. Neither choline nor betaine predicted MACE risk when TMAO was added to the adjustment model, and choline and betaine predicted future risk for MACE only when TMAO was elevated. Conclusion Elevated plasma levels of choline and betaine are each associated with incident MACE risk independent of traditional risk factors. However, high choline and betaine levels are only associated with higher risk of future MACE with concomitant increase in TMAO. PMID:24497336

Does Childhood Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) Predict Levels of Depressive Symptoms during Emerging Adulthood?

PubMed Central

Meinzer, Michael C.; Pettit, Jeremy W.; Waxmonsky, James G.; Gnagy, Elizabeth; Molina, Brooke S.G.; Pelham, William E.

2015-01-01

Little is known about the development and course of depressive symptoms through emerging adulthood among individuals with a childhood history of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The aim of this study was to examine if a history of ADHD in childhood significantly predicted depressive symptoms during emerging adulthood (i.e., ages 18–25 years), including the initial level of depressive symptoms, continued levels of depressive symptoms at each age year, and the rate of change in depressive symptoms over time. 394 participants (205 with ADHD and 189 without ADHD; 348 males and 46 females) drawn from the Pittsburgh ADHD Longitudinal Study (PALS) completed annual self-ratings of depressive symptoms between the ages of 18 and 25 years. Childhood history of ADHD significantly predicted a higher initial level of depressive symptoms at age 18, and higher levels of depressive symptoms at every age year during emerging adulthood. ADHD did not significantly predict the rate of change in depressive symptoms from age 18 to age 25. Childhood history of ADHD remained a significant predictor of initial level of depressive symptoms at age 18 after controlling for comorbid psychiatric diagnoses, but not after controlling for concurrent ADHD symptoms and psychosocial impairment. Participants with childhood histories of ADHD experienced significantly higher levels of depressive symptoms than non-ADHD comparison participants by age 18 and continued to experience higher, although not increasing, levels of depressive symptoms through emerging adulthood. Clinical implications and directions for future research are discussed. PMID:26272531

Spatially structured superinfection and the evolution of disease virulence.

PubMed

Caraco, Thomas; Glavanakov, Stephan; Li, Shengua; Maniatty, William; Szymanski, Boleslaw K

2006-06-01

When pathogen strains differing in virulence compete for hosts, spatial structuring of disease transmission can govern both evolved levels of virulence and patterns in strain coexistence. We develop a spatially detailed model of superinfection, a form of contest competition between pathogen strains; the probability of superinfection depends explicitly on the difference in levels of virulence. We apply methods of adaptive dynamics to address the interplay of spatial dynamics and evolution. The mean-field approximation predicts evolution to criticality; any small increase in virulence capable of dynamical persistence is favored. Both pair approximation and simulation of the detailed model indicate that spatial structure constrains disease virulence. Increased spatial clustering reduces the maximal virulence capable of single-strain persistence and, more importantly, reduces the convergent-stable virulence level under strain competition. The spatially detailed model predicts that increasing the probability of superinfection, for given difference in virulence, increases the likelihood of between-strain coexistence. When strains differing in virulence can coexist ecologically, our results may suggest policies for managing diseases with localized transmission. Comparing equilibrium densities from the pair approximation, we find that introducing a more virulent strain into a host population infected by a less virulent strain can sometimes reduce total host mortality and increase global host density.

Sequence Alignment to Predict Across Species Susceptibility ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Conservation of a molecular target across species can be used as a line-of-evidence to predict the likelihood of chemical susceptibility. The web-based Sequence Alignment to Predict Across Species Susceptibility (SeqAPASS) tool was developed to simplify, streamline, and quantitatively assess protein sequence/structural similarity across taxonomic groups as a means to predict relative intrinsic susceptibility. The intent of the tool is to allow for evaluation of any potential protein target, so it is amenable to variable degrees of protein characterization, depending on available information about the chemical/protein interaction and the molecular target itself. To allow for flexibility in the analysis, a layered strategy was adopted for the tool. The first level of the SeqAPASS analysis compares primary amino acid sequences to a query sequence, calculating a metric for sequence similarity (including detection of candidate orthologs), the second level evaluates sequence similarity within selected domains (e.g., ligand-binding domain, DNA binding domain), and the third level of analysis compares individual amino acid residue positions identified as being of importance for protein conformation and/or ligand binding upon chemical perturbation. Each level of the SeqAPASS analysis provides increasing evidence to apply toward rapid, screening-level assessments of probable cross species susceptibility. Such analyses can support prioritization of chemicals for further ev

Predictive factors of esophageal stenosis associated with tumor regression in radiation therapy for locally advanced esophageal cancer.

PubMed

Atsumi, Kazushige; Shioyama, Yoshiyuki; Nakamura, Katsumasa; Nomoto, Satoshi; Ohga, Saiji; Yoshitake, Tadamasa; Nonoshita, Takeshi; Ueda, Masanobu; Hirata, Hideki; Honda, Hiroshi

2010-01-01

The purpose of this retrospective study was to clarify the predictive factors correlated with esophageal stenosis within three months after radiation therapy for locally advanced esophageal cancer. We enrolled 47 patients with advanced esophageal cancer with T2-4 and stage II-III who were treated with definitive radiation therapy and achieving complete response of primary lesion at Kyushu University Hospital between January 1998 and December 2005. Esophagography was performed for all patients before treatment and within three months after completion of the radiation therapy, the esophageal stenotic ratio was evaluated. The stenotic ratio was used to define four levels of stenosis: stenosis level 1, stenotic ratio of 0-25%; 2, 25-50%; 3,50-75%; 4,75-100%. We then estimated the correlation between the esophageal stenosis level after radiation therapy and each of numerous factors. The numbers and total percentages of patients at each stenosis level were as follows: level 1: n = 14 (30%); level 2: 8 (17%); level 3: 14 (30%); and level 4: 11 (23%). Esophageal stenosis in the case of full circumference involvement tended to be more severe and more frequent. Increases in wall thickness tended to be associated with increases in esophageal stenosis severity and frequency. The extent of involved circumference and wall thickness of tumor region were significantly correlated with esophageal stenosis associated with tumor regression in radiation therapy (p = 0.0006, p = 0.005). For predicting the possibility of esophageal stenosis with tumor regression within three months in radiation therapy, the extent of involved circumference and esophageal wall thickness of the tumor region may be useful.

Interaction of 5-HTTLPR and Idiographic Stressors Predicts Prospective Depressive Symptoms Specifically among Youth in a Multi-wave Design

PubMed Central

Hankin, Benjamin L.; Jenness, Jessica; Abela, John R.Z.; Smolen, Andrew

2011-01-01

5-HTTLPR, episodic stressors, depressive and anxious symptoms were assessed prospectively (child and parent report) every 3 months over 1 year (5 waves of data) among community youth ages 9–15 (n = 220). Lagged HLM analyses showed 5-HTTLPR interacted with idiographic stressors (increases relative to the child’s own average level over time), but not nomothetic stressors (higher stress exposure relative to the sample), to predict prospective elevations in depressive, but not anxious, symptoms. Youth with copies of the S or LG alleles of 5-HTTLPR, who experienced more stressors relative to their typical level, exhibited prospective increases in depressive symptoms over time. These findings suggest that 5-HTTLPR confers susceptibility to depression via stress reactivity. PMID:21722029

Affect systems, changes in body mass index, disordered eating and stress: an 18-month longitudinal study in women

PubMed Central

Kupeli, N.; Norton, S.; Chilcot, J.; Campbell, I. C.; Schmidt, U. H.; Troop, N. A.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Evidence suggests that stress plays a role in changes in body weight and disordered eating. The present study examined the effect of mood, affect systems (attachment and social rank) and affect regulatory processes (self-criticism, self-reassurance) on the stress process and how this impacts on changes in weight and disordered eating. Methods: A large sample of women participated in a community-based prospective, longitudinal online study in which measures of body mass index (BMI), disordered eating, perceived stress, attachment, social rank, mood and self-criticism/reassurance were measured at 6-monthly intervals over an 18-month period. Results: Latent Growth Curve Modelling showed that BMI increased over 18 months while stress and disordered eating decreased and that these changes were predicted by high baseline levels of these constructs. Independently of this, however, increases in stress predicted a reduction in BMI which was, itself, predicted by baseline levels of self-hatred and unfavourable social comparison. Conclusions: This study adds support to the evidence that stress is important in weight change. In addition, this is the first study to show in a longitudinal design, that social rank and self-criticism (as opposed to self-reassurance) at times of difficulty predict increases in stress and, thus, suggests a role for these constructs in weight regulation. PMID:28553564

Potential Implications of Climate Change on Aegilops Species Distribution: Sympatry of These Crop Wild Relatives with the Major European Crop Triticum aestivum and Conservation Issues.

PubMed

Ostrowski, Marie-France; Prosperi, Jean-Marie; David, Jacques

2016-01-01

Gene flow from crop to wild relatives is a common phenomenon which can lead to reduced adaptation of the wild relatives to natural ecosystems and/or increased adaptation to agrosystems (weediness). With global warming, wild relative distributions will likely change, thus modifying the width and/or location of co-occurrence zones where crop-wild hybridization events could occur (sympatry). This study investigates current and 2050 projected changes in sympatry levels between cultivated wheat and six of the most common Aegilops species in Europe. Projections were generated using MaxEnt on presence-only data, bioclimatic variables, and considering two migration hypotheses and two 2050 climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Overall, a general decline in suitable climatic conditions for Aegilops species outside the European zone and a parallel increase in Europe were predicted. If no migration could occur, the decline was predicted to be more acute outside than within the European zone. The potential sympatry level in Europe by 2050 was predicted to increase at a higher rate than species richness, and most expansions were predicted to occur in three countries, which are currently among the top four wheat producers in Europe: Russia, France and Ukraine. The results are also discussed with regard to conservation issues of these crop wild relatives.

Effects of time delay and pitch control sensitivity in the flared landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berthe, C. J.; Chalk, C. R.; Wingarten, N. C.; Grantham, W.

1986-01-01

Between December 1985 and January 1986, a flared landing program was conducted, using the USAF Total In-Flight simulator airplane, to examine time delay effects in a formal manner. Results show that as pitch sensitivity is increased, tolerance to time delay decreases. With the proper selection of pitch sensitivity, Level I performance was maintained with time delays ranging from 150 milliseconds to greater than 300 milliseconds. With higher sensitivity, configurations with Level I performance at 150 milliseconds degraded to level 2 at 200 milliseconds. When metrics of time delay and pitch sensitivity effects are applied to enhance previously developed predictive criteria, the result is an improved prediction technique which accounts for significant closed loop items.

Quantifiable impact on poverty in Trinidad And Tobago of the Uruguay Round Agreement On Agriculture.

PubMed

Pemberton, Carlisle; Ramnarine, Deokie

2006-09-01

The agreement on agriculture and the World Trade Organization were major outcomes of the 1986-1994 Uruguay Round (UR) negotiations within the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). The measures under the UR were predicted to increase poverty in developing countries, a serious cause for concern since poverty alleviation is a major goal of developing countries. Thus this paper simulated the impact on poverty of the UR for a net food importing country, Trinidad and Tobago. The objectives of the study were to determine the changes in poverty levels in Trinidad and Tobago that we expected would result from changes in the price levels of food commodities after the removal of trade protection following the UR, and to examine recent trends in poverty in Trinidad and Tobago and the prices of major agricultural exports from the United States, its principal trading partner. A regression model (poverty model) was used to determine the relationship between poverty levels and the prices of sensitive imported food commodities (SIFCs) and other key economic variables. Impact models were used to project changes in world market prices of the SIFCs due to the UR, and these price changes were used to predict changes in poverty in Trinidad and Tobago. The results showed a positive elasticity between poverty and the prices of SIFCs. The study also predicted that the average projected increase in price levels of the SIFCs of less than 9% by the year 2000 would cause an increase in poverty in Trinidad and Tobago of less than 4%. There has been, in fact, a small decline in poverty in Trinidad and Tobago since 1996. The prices of major agricultural exports from the United States have also been falling since 1995. Thus, so far the UR has had no perceptible effects in increasing the prices of food exports from the United States. Also, so far the UR has had no perceptible effect on the poverty level in Trinidad and Tobago.

Identification of residue pairing in interacting β-strands from a predicted residue contact map.

PubMed

Mao, Wenzhi; Wang, Tong; Zhang, Wenxuan; Gong, Haipeng

2018-04-19

Despite the rapid progress of protein residue contact prediction, predicted residue contact maps frequently contain many errors. However, information of residue pairing in β strands could be extracted from a noisy contact map, due to the presence of characteristic contact patterns in β-β interactions. This information may benefit the tertiary structure prediction of mainly β proteins. In this work, we propose a novel ridge-detection-based β-β contact predictor to identify residue pairing in β strands from any predicted residue contact map. Our algorithm RDb 2 C adopts ridge detection, a well-developed technique in computer image processing, to capture consecutive residue contacts, and then utilizes a novel multi-stage random forest framework to integrate the ridge information and additional features for prediction. Starting from the predicted contact map of CCMpred, RDb 2 C remarkably outperforms all state-of-the-art methods on two conventional test sets of β proteins (BetaSheet916 and BetaSheet1452), and achieves F1-scores of ~ 62% and ~ 76% at the residue level and strand level, respectively. Taking the prediction of the more advanced RaptorX-Contact as input, RDb 2 C achieves impressively higher performance, with F1-scores reaching ~ 76% and ~ 86% at the residue level and strand level, respectively. In a test of structural modeling using the top 1 L predicted contacts as constraints, for 61 mainly β proteins, the average TM-score achieves 0.442 when using the raw RaptorX-Contact prediction, but increases to 0.506 when using the improved prediction by RDb 2 C. Our method can significantly improve the prediction of β-β contacts from any predicted residue contact maps. Prediction results of our algorithm could be directly applied to effectively facilitate the practical structure prediction of mainly β proteins. All source data and codes are available at http://166.111.152.91/Downloads.html or the GitHub address of https://github.com/wzmao/RDb2C .

Tree Morphologic Plasticity Explains Deviation from Metabolic Scaling Theory in Semi-Arid Conifer Forests, Southwestern USA

PubMed Central

O’Connor, Christopher D.; Lynch, Ann M.

2016-01-01

A significant concern about Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST) in real forests relates to consistent differences between the values of power law scaling exponents of tree primary size measures used to estimate mass and those predicted by MST. Here we consider why observed scaling exponents for diameter and height relationships deviate from MST predictions across three semi-arid conifer forests in relation to: (1) tree condition and physical form, (2) the level of inter-tree competition (e.g. open vs closed stand structure), (3) increasing tree age, and (4) differences in site productivity. Scaling exponent values derived from non-linear least-squares regression for trees in excellent condition (n = 381) were above the MST prediction at the 95% confidence level, while the exponent for trees in good condition were no different than MST (n = 926). Trees that were in fair or poor condition, characterized as diseased, leaning, or sparsely crowned had exponent values below MST predictions (n = 2,058), as did recently dead standing trees (n = 375). Exponent value of the mean-tree model that disregarded tree condition (n = 3,740) was consistent with other studies that reject MST scaling. Ostensibly, as stand density and competition increase trees exhibited greater morphological plasticity whereby the majority had characteristically fair or poor growth forms. Fitting by least-squares regression biases the mean-tree model scaling exponent toward values that are below MST idealized predictions. For 368 trees from Arizona with known establishment dates, increasing age had no significant impact on expected scaling. We further suggest height to diameter ratios below MST relate to vertical truncation caused by limitation in plant water availability. Even with environmentally imposed height limitation, proportionality between height and diameter scaling exponents were consistent with the predictions of MST. PMID:27391084

Tree Morphologic Plasticity Explains Deviation from Metabolic Scaling Theory in Semi-Arid Conifer Forests, Southwestern USA.

PubMed

Swetnam, Tyson L; O'Connor, Christopher D; Lynch, Ann M

2016-01-01

A significant concern about Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST) in real forests relates to consistent differences between the values of power law scaling exponents of tree primary size measures used to estimate mass and those predicted by MST. Here we consider why observed scaling exponents for diameter and height relationships deviate from MST predictions across three semi-arid conifer forests in relation to: (1) tree condition and physical form, (2) the level of inter-tree competition (e.g. open vs closed stand structure), (3) increasing tree age, and (4) differences in site productivity. Scaling exponent values derived from non-linear least-squares regression for trees in excellent condition (n = 381) were above the MST prediction at the 95% confidence level, while the exponent for trees in good condition were no different than MST (n = 926). Trees that were in fair or poor condition, characterized as diseased, leaning, or sparsely crowned had exponent values below MST predictions (n = 2,058), as did recently dead standing trees (n = 375). Exponent value of the mean-tree model that disregarded tree condition (n = 3,740) was consistent with other studies that reject MST scaling. Ostensibly, as stand density and competition increase trees exhibited greater morphological plasticity whereby the majority had characteristically fair or poor growth forms. Fitting by least-squares regression biases the mean-tree model scaling exponent toward values that are below MST idealized predictions. For 368 trees from Arizona with known establishment dates, increasing age had no significant impact on expected scaling. We further suggest height to diameter ratios below MST relate to vertical truncation caused by limitation in plant water availability. Even with environmentally imposed height limitation, proportionality between height and diameter scaling exponents were consistent with the predictions of MST.

On the predictability of extreme events in records with linear and nonlinear long-range memory: Efficiency and noise robustness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogachev, Mikhail I.; Bunde, Armin

2011-06-01

We study the predictability of extreme events in records with linear and nonlinear long-range memory in the presence of additive white noise using two different approaches: (i) the precursory pattern recognition technique (PRT) that exploits solely the information about short-term precursors, and (ii) the return interval approach (RIA) that exploits long-range memory incorporated in the elapsed time after the last extreme event. We find that the PRT always performs better when only linear memory is present. In the presence of nonlinear memory, both methods demonstrate comparable efficiency in the absence of white noise. When additional white noise is present in the record (which is the case in most observational records), the efficiency of the PRT decreases monotonously with increasing noise level. In contrast, the RIA shows an abrupt transition between a phase of low level noise where the prediction is as good as in the absence of noise, and a phase of high level noise where the prediction becomes poor. In the phase of low and intermediate noise the RIA predicts considerably better than the PRT, which explains our recent findings in physiological and financial records.

Application of the aeroacoustic analogy to a shrouded, subsonic, radial fan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buccieri, Bryan M.; Richards, Christopher M.

2016-12-01

A study was conducted to investigate the predictive capability of computational aeroacoustics with respect to a shrouded, subsonic, radial fan. A three dimensional unsteady fluid dynamics simulation was conducted to produce aerodynamic data used as the acoustic source for an aeroacoustics simulation. Two acoustic models were developed: one modeling the forces on the rotating fan blades as a set of rotating dipoles located at the center of mass of each fan blade and one modeling the forces on the stationary fan shroud as a field of distributed stationary dipoles. Predicted acoustic response was compared to experimental data measured at two operating speeds using three different outlet restrictions. The blade source model predicted overall far field sound power levels within 5 dB averaged over the six different operating conditions while the shroud model predicted overall far field sound power levels within 7 dB averaged over the same conditions. Doubling the density of the computational fluids mesh and using a scale adaptive simulation turbulence model increased broadband noise accuracy. However, computation time doubled and the accuracy of the overall sound power level prediction improved by only 1 dB.

Increasing the predictive accuracy of amyloid-β blood-borne biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Watt, Andrew D; Perez, Keyla A; Faux, Noel G; Pike, Kerryn E; Rowe, Christopher C; Bourgeat, Pierrick; Salvado, Olivier; Masters, Colin L; Villemagne, Victor L; Barnham, Kevin J

2011-01-01

Diagnostic measures for Alzheimer's disease (AD) commonly rely on evaluating the levels of amyloid-β (Aβ) peptides within the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of affected individuals. These levels are often combined with levels of an additional non-Aβ marker to increase predictive accuracy. Recent efforts to overcome the invasive nature of CSF collection led to the observation of Aβ species within the blood cellular fraction, however, little is known of what additional biomarkers may be found in this membranous fraction. The current study aimed to undertake a discovery-based proteomic investigation of the blood cellular fraction from AD patients (n = 18) and healthy controls (HC; n = 15) using copper immobilized metal affinity capture and Surface Enhanced Laser Desorption/Ionisation Time-Of-Flight Mass Spectrometry. Three candidate biomarkers were observed which could differentiate AD patients from HC (ROC AUC > 0.8). Bivariate pairwise comparisons revealed significant correlations between these markers and measures of AD severity including; MMSE, composite memory, brain amyloid burden, and hippocampal volume. A partial least squares regression model was generated using the three candidate markers along with blood levels of Aβ. This model was able to distinguish AD from HC with high specificity (90%) and sensitivity (77%) and was able to separate individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who converted to AD from MCI non-converters. While requiring further characterization, these candidate biomarkers reaffirm the potential efficacy of blood-based investigations into neurodegenerative conditions. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the incorporation of non-amyloid markers into predictive models, function to increase the accuracy of the diagnostic potential of Aβ.

Predictive value of serum sST2 in preschool wheezers for development of asthma with high FeNO.

PubMed

Ketelaar, M E; van de Kant, K D; Dijk, F N; Klaassen, E M; Grotenboer, N S; Nawijn, M C; Dompeling, E; Koppelman, G H

2017-11-01

Wheezing is common in childhood. However, current prediction models of pediatric asthma have only modest accuracy. Novel biomarkers and definition of subphenotypes may improve asthma prediction. Interleukin-1-receptor-like-1 (IL1RL1 or ST2) is a well-replicated asthma gene and associates with eosinophilia. We investigated whether serum sST2 predicts asthma and asthma with elevated exhaled NO (FeNO), compared to the commonly used Asthma Prediction Index (API). Using logistic regression modeling, we found that serum sST2 levels in 2-3 years-old wheezers do not predict doctors' diagnosed asthma at age 6 years. Instead, sST2 predicts a subphenotype of asthma characterized by increased levels of FeNO, a marker for eosinophilic airway inflammation. Herein, sST2 improved the predictive value of the API (AUC=0.70, 95% CI 0.56-0.84), but had also significant predictive value on its own (AUC=0.65, 95% CI 0.52-0.79). Our study indicates that sST2 in preschool wheezers has predictive value for the development of eosinophilic airway inflammation in asthmatic children at school age. © 2017 EAACI and John Wiley and Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd.

Effect of Silicon on the Desulfurization of Al-Killed Steels: Part II. Experimental Results and Plant Trials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Debdutta; Pistorius, Petrus Christiaan; Fruehan, Richard J.

2013-10-01

Recent observations suggest that increased silicon levels improve ladle desulfurization of aluminum-killed steel. A kinetic model was developed and presented in part I of this paper, demonstrating that increased silicon levels in steel suppress the consumption of aluminum by parasitic reactions like silica reduction and FeO/MnO reduction, thus making more aluminum available at the interface for desulfurization. The results are increases in the rate and the extent of desulfurization. Predictions were compared with laboratory induction furnace melts using 1 kg of steel and 0.1 kg slag. The experimental results demonstrate the beneficial effect of silicon on the desulfurization reaction and that alumina can be reduced out of the slag and aluminum picked up by the steel, if the silicon content in the steel is high enough. The experimental results are in close agreement with the model predictions. Plant trials also show that with increased silicon content, both the rate and extent of desulfurization increase; incorporating silicon early into the ladle desulfurization process leads to considerable savings in aluminum consumption.

The medial temporal lobe-conduit of parallel connectivity: a model for attention, memory, and perception.

PubMed

Mozaffari, Brian

2014-01-01

Based on the notion that the brain is equipped with a hierarchical organization, which embodies environmental contingencies across many time scales, this paper suggests that the medial temporal lobe (MTL)-located deep in the hierarchy-serves as a bridge connecting supra- to infra-MTL levels. Bridging the upper and lower regions of the hierarchy provides a parallel architecture that optimizes information flow between upper and lower regions to aid attention, encoding, and processing of quick complex visual phenomenon. Bypassing intermediate hierarchy levels, information conveyed through the MTL "bridge" allows upper levels to make educated predictions about the prevailing context and accordingly select lower representations to increase the efficiency of predictive coding throughout the hierarchy. This selection or activation/deactivation is associated with endogenous attention. In the event that these "bridge" predictions are inaccurate, this architecture enables the rapid encoding of novel contingencies. A review of hierarchical models in relation to memory is provided along with a new theory, Medial-temporal-lobe Conduit for Parallel Connectivity (MCPC). In this scheme, consolidation is considered as a secondary process, occurring after a MTL-bridged connection, which eventually allows upper and lower levels to access each other directly. With repeated reactivations, as contingencies become consolidated, less MTL activity is predicted. Finally, MTL bridging may aid processing transient but structured perceptual events, by allowing communication between upper and lower levels without calling on intermediate levels of representation.

Selective pressures for accurate altruism targeting: evidence from digital evolution for difficult-to-test aspects of inclusive fitness theory.

PubMed

Clune, Jeff; Goldsby, Heather J; Ofria, Charles; Pennock, Robert T

2011-03-07

Inclusive fitness theory predicts that natural selection will favour altruist genes that are more accurate in targeting altruism only to copies of themselves. In this paper, we provide evidence from digital evolution in support of this prediction by competing multiple altruist-targeting mechanisms that vary in their accuracy in determining whether a potential target for altruism carries a copy of the altruist gene. We compete altruism-targeting mechanisms based on (i) kinship (kin targeting), (ii) genetic similarity at a level greater than that expected of kin (similarity targeting), and (iii) perfect knowledge of the presence of an altruist gene (green beard targeting). Natural selection always favoured the most accurate targeting mechanism available. Our investigations also revealed that evolution did not increase the altruism level when all green beard altruists used the same phenotypic marker. The green beard altruism levels stably increased only when mutations that changed the altruism level also changed the marker (e.g. beard colour), such that beard colour reliably indicated the altruism level. For kin- and similarity-targeting mechanisms, we found that evolution was able to stably adjust altruism levels. Our results confirm that natural selection favours altruist genes that are increasingly accurate in targeting altruism to only their copies. Our work also emphasizes that the concept of targeting accuracy must include both the presence of an altruist gene and the level of altruism it produces.

Dynamic Filtering Improves Attentional State Prediction with fNIRS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrivel, Angela R.; Weissman, Daniel H.; Noll, Douglas C.; Huppert, Theodore; Peltier, Scott J.

2016-01-01

Brain activity can predict a person's level of engagement in an attentional task. However, estimates of brain activity are often confounded by measurement artifacts and systemic physiological noise. The optimal method for filtering this noise - thereby increasing such state prediction accuracy - remains unclear. To investigate this, we asked study participants to perform an attentional task while we monitored their brain activity with functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). We observed higher state prediction accuracy when noise in the fNIRS hemoglobin [Hb] signals was filtered with a non-stationary (adaptive) model as compared to static regression (84% +/- 6% versus 72% +/- 15%).

Predictors of Program Use and Child and Parent Outcomes of A Brief Online Parenting Intervention.

PubMed

Baker, Sabine; Sanders, Matthew R

2017-10-01

Web-based parenting interventions have the potential to increase the currently low reach of parenting programs, but few evidence-based online programs are available, and little is known about who benefits from this delivery format. This study investigated if improvements in child behavior and parenting, following participation in a brief online parenting program (Triple P Online Brief), can be predicted by family and program-related factors. Participants were 100 parents of 2-9-year-old children displaying disruptive behavior problems. Regression analyses showed that higher baseline levels of child behavior problems, older parental age and more intense conflict over parenting pre-intervention predicted greater improvement in child behavior at 9-month follow-up. Improvement in parenting was predicted by higher pre-intervention levels of ineffective parenting. Family demographics, parental adjustment and program related factors did not predict treatment outcomes. Younger child age and lower disagreement over parenting pre-intervention predicted completion of the recommended minimum dose of the program.

Acute Anxiety Predicts Components of the Cold Shock Response on Cold Water Immersion: Toward an Integrated Psychophysiological Model of Acute Cold Water Survival

PubMed Central

Barwood, Martin J.; Corbett, Jo; Massey, Heather; McMorris, Terry; Tipton, Mike; Wagstaff, Christopher R. D.

2018-01-01

Introduction: Drowning is a leading cause of accidental death. In cold-water, sudden skin cooling triggers the life-threatening cold shock response (CSR). The CSR comprises tachycardia, peripheral vasoconstriction, hypertension, inspiratory gasp, and hyperventilation with the hyperventilatory component inducing hypocapnia and increasing risk of aspirating water to the lungs. Some CSR components can be reduced by habituation (i.e., reduced response to stimulus of same magnitude) induced by 3–5 short cold-water immersions (CWI). However, high levels of acute anxiety, a plausible emotion on CWI: magnifies the CSR in unhabituated participants, reverses habituated components of the CSR and prevents/delays habituation when high levels of anxiety are experienced concurrent to immersions suggesting anxiety is integral to the CSR. Purpose: To examine the predictive relationship that prior ratings of acute anxiety have with the CSR. Secondly, to examine whether anxiety ratings correlated with components of the CSR during immersion before and after induction of habituation. Methods: Forty-eight unhabituated participants completed one (CON1) 7-min immersion in to cold water (15°C). Of that cohort, twenty-five completed four further CWIs that would ordinarily induce CSR habituation. They then completed two counter-balanced immersions where anxiety levels were increased (CWI-ANX) or were not manipulated (CON2). Acute anxiety and the cardiorespiratory responses (cardiac frequency [fc], respiratory frequency [fR], tidal volume [VT], minute ventilation [E]) were measured. Multiple regression was used to identify components of the CSR from the most life-threatening period of immersion (1st minute) predicted by the anxiety rating prior to immersion. Relationships between anxiety rating and CSR components during immersion were assessed by correlation. Results: Anxiety rating predicted the fc component of the CSR in unhabituated participants (CON1; p < 0.05, r = 0.536, r2= 0.190). After habituation immersions (i.e., cohort 2), anxiety rating predicted the fR component of the CSR when anxiety levels were lowered (CON2; p < 0.05, r = 0.566, r2= 0.320) but predicted the fc component of the CSR (p < 0.05, r = 0.518, r2= 0.197) when anxiety was increased suggesting different drivers of the CSR when anxiety levels were manipulated; correlation data supported these relationships. Discussion: Acute anxiety is integral to the CSR before and after habituation. We offer a new integrated model including neuroanatomical, perceptual and attentional components of the CSR to explain these data. PMID:29695988

Acute Anxiety Predicts Components of the Cold Shock Response on Cold Water Immersion: Toward an Integrated Psychophysiological Model of Acute Cold Water Survival.

PubMed

Barwood, Martin J; Corbett, Jo; Massey, Heather; McMorris, Terry; Tipton, Mike; Wagstaff, Christopher R D

2018-01-01

Introduction: Drowning is a leading cause of accidental death. In cold-water, sudden skin cooling triggers the life-threatening cold shock response (CSR). The CSR comprises tachycardia, peripheral vasoconstriction, hypertension, inspiratory gasp, and hyperventilation with the hyperventilatory component inducing hypocapnia and increasing risk of aspirating water to the lungs. Some CSR components can be reduced by habituation (i.e., reduced response to stimulus of same magnitude) induced by 3-5 short cold-water immersions (CWI). However, high levels of acute anxiety, a plausible emotion on CWI: magnifies the CSR in unhabituated participants, reverses habituated components of the CSR and prevents/delays habituation when high levels of anxiety are experienced concurrent to immersions suggesting anxiety is integral to the CSR. Purpose: To examine the predictive relationship that prior ratings of acute anxiety have with the CSR. Secondly, to examine whether anxiety ratings correlated with components of the CSR during immersion before and after induction of habituation. Methods: Forty-eight unhabituated participants completed one (CON1) 7-min immersion in to cold water (15°C). Of that cohort, twenty-five completed four further CWIs that would ordinarily induce CSR habituation. They then completed two counter-balanced immersions where anxiety levels were increased (CWI-ANX) or were not manipulated (CON2). Acute anxiety and the cardiorespiratory responses (cardiac frequency [ f c ], respiratory frequency [ f R ], tidal volume [ V T ], minute ventilation [ E ]) were measured. Multiple regression was used to identify components of the CSR from the most life-threatening period of immersion (1 st minute) predicted by the anxiety rating prior to immersion. Relationships between anxiety rating and CSR components during immersion were assessed by correlation. Results: Anxiety rating predicted the f c component of the CSR in unhabituated participants (CON1; p < 0.05, r = 0.536, r 2 = 0.190). After habituation immersions (i.e., cohort 2), anxiety rating predicted the f R component of the CSR when anxiety levels were lowered (CON2; p < 0.05, r = 0.566, r 2 = 0.320) but predicted the f c component of the CSR ( p < 0.05, r = 0.518, r 2 = 0.197) when anxiety was increased suggesting different drivers of the CSR when anxiety levels were manipulated; correlation data supported these relationships. Discussion: Acute anxiety is integral to the CSR before and after habituation. We offer a new integrated model including neuroanatomical, perceptual and attentional components of the CSR to explain these data.

Finite element predictions of active buckling control of stiffened panels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Danniella M.; Griffin, O. H., Jr.

1993-04-01

Materials systems and structures that can respond 'intelligently' to their environment are currently being proposed and investigated. A series of finite element analyses was performed to investigate the potential for active buckling control of two different stiffened panels by embedded shape memory alloy (SMA) rods. Changes in the predicted buckling load increased with the magnitude of the actuation level for a given structural concept. Increasing the number of actuators for a given concept yielded greater predicted increases in buckling load. Considerable control authority was generated with a small number of actuators, with greater authority demonstrated for those structural concepts where the activated SMA rods could develop greater forces and moments on the structure. Relatively simple and inexpensive analyses were performed with standard finite elements to determine such information, indicating the viability of these types of models for design purposes.

Association between Decreased Serum Parathyroid Hormone after Total Thyroidectomy and Persistent Hypoparathyroidism

PubMed Central

Wang, Jian-Biao; Sun, Hai-Li; Song, Chun-Yi; Gao, Li

2015-01-01

Background Postoperative hypocalcemia caused by hypoparathyroidism is one of the most common morbidities of total thyroidectomy. The aim of this study was to analyze the kinetics and factors affecting PTH levels after total thyroidectomy and central neck dissection (CND). Material/Methods We performed a retrospective study in 438 consecutive patients who underwent total thyroidectomy between January 2007 and December 2010. No patient had a history of thyroid or neck surgery. PTH and calcium levels were recorded 1 day before the operation, during the first 5 days, and during follow-up (2 weeks and 2, 6, and 12 months). Results PTH levels declined to 41.90% of its initial value on the first day after the operation. After surgery, PTH was correlated positively with calcium and inversely with phosphate levels from postoperative day 1 to 14. Based on clinical observation, using a PTH threshold of <7 ng/L on postoperative day 1 was predictive of persistent hypoparathyroidism, with sensitivity and negative predictive value 100%, but poor specificity (70.19%). CND increased the risk of transient hypoparathyroidism compared with total thyroidectomy alone. Patients with thyroiditis had an increased risk of permanent hypoparathyroidism compared with those without thyroiditis. Iatrogenic removal of the parathyroid glands increased the risk of permanent hypoparathyroidism compared with those without iatrogenic parathyroidectomy. Conclusions PTH declined on the first day after thyroidectomy. PTH levels <7 ng/L on the first day after surgery might be associated with persistent hypoparathyroidism. CND, thyroiditis, and iatrogenic parathyroidectomy increased the risk of hypoparathyroidism. PMID:25923249

Angiogenic factors and their soluble receptors predict organ dysfunction and mortality in post-cardiac arrest syndrome.

PubMed

Wada, Takeshi; Jesmin, Subrina; Gando, Satoshi; Yanagida, Yuichiro; Mizugaki, Asumi; Sultana, Sayeeda N; Zaedi, Sohel; Yokota, Hiroyuki

2012-09-29

Post-cardiac arrest syndrome (PCAS) often leads to multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) with a poor prognosis. Endothelial and leukocyte activation after whole-body ischemia/reperfusion following resuscitation from cardiac arrest is a critical step in endothelial injury and related organ damage. Angiogenic factors, including vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and angiopoietin (Ang), and their receptors play crucial roles in endothelial growth, survival signals, pathological angiogenesis and microvascular permeability. The aim of this study was to confirm the efficacy of angiogenic factors and their soluble receptors in predicting organ dysfunction and mortality in patients with PCAS. A total of 52 resuscitated patients were divided into two subgroups: 23 survivors and 29 non-survivors. The serum levels of VEGF, soluble VEGF receptor (sVEGFR)1, sVEGFR2, Ang1, Ang2 and soluble Tie2 (sTie2) were measured at the time of admission (Day 1) and on Day 3 and Day 5. The ratio of Ang2 to Ang1 (Ang2/Ang1) was also calculated. This study compared the levels of angiogenic factors and their soluble receptors between survivors and non-survivors, and evaluated the predictive value of these factors for organ dysfunction and 28-day mortality. The non-survivors demonstrated more severe degrees of organ dysfunction and a higher prevalence of MODS. Non-survivors showed significant increases in the Ang2 levels and the Ang2/Ang1 ratios compared to survivors. A stepwise logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the Ang2 levels or the Ang2/Ang1 ratios on Day 1 independently predicted the 28-day mortality. The receiver operating characteristic curves of the Ang2 levels, and the Ang2/Ang1 ratios on Day 1 were good predictors of 28-day mortality. The Ang2 levels also independently predicted increases in the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores. We observed a marked imbalance between Ang1 and Ang2 in favor of Ang2 in PCAS patients, and the effect was more prominent in non-survivors. Angiogenic factors and their soluble receptors, particularly Ang2 and Ang2/Ang1, are considered to be valuable predictive biomarkers in the development of organ dysfunction and poor outcomes in PCAS patients.

Direct comparison of serial B-type natriuretic peptide and NT-proBNP levels for prediction of short- and long-term outcome in acute decompensated heart failure

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Monitoring treatment efficacy and assessing outcome by serial measurements of natriuretic peptides in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) patients may help to improve outcome. Methods This was a prospective multi-center study of 171 consecutive patients (mean age 80 73-85 years) presenting to the emergency department with ADHF. Measurement of BNP and NT-proBNP was performed at presentation, 24 hours, 48 hours and at discharge. The primary endpoint was one-year all-cause mortality; secondary endpoints were 30-days all-cause mortality and one-year heart failure (HF) readmission. Results During one-year follow-up, a total of 60 (35%) patients died. BNP and NT-proBNP levels were higher in non-survivors at all time points (all P < 0.001). In survivors, treatment reduced BNP and NT-proBNP levels by more than 50% (P < 0.001), while in non-survivors treatment did not lower BNP and NT-proBNP levels. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the prediction of one-year mortality increased during the course of hospitalization for BNP (AUC presentation: 0.67; AUC 24 h: 0.77; AUC 48 h: 0.78; AUC discharge: 0.78) and NT-proBNP (AUC presentation: 0.67; AUC 24 h: 0.73; AUC 48 h: 0.75; AUC discharge: 0.77). In multivariate analysis, BNP at 24 h (1.02 [1.01-1.04], P = 0.003), 48 h (1.04 [1.02-1.06], P < 0.001) and discharge (1.02 [1.01-1.03], P < 0.001) independently predicted one-year mortality, while only pre-discharge NT-proBNP was predictive (1.07 [1.01-1.13], P = 0.016). Comparable results could be obtained for the secondary endpoint 30-days mortality but not for one-year HF readmissions. Conclusions BNP and NT-proBNP reliably predict one-year mortality in patients with ADHF. Prognostic accuracy of both biomarker increases during the course of hospitalization. In survivors BNP levels decline more rapidly than NT-proBNP levels and thus seem to allow earlier assessment of treatment efficacy. Ability to predict one-year HF readmission was poor for BNP and NT-proBNP. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00514384. PMID:21208408

Expression of the filaggrin gene in umbilical cord blood predicts eczema risk in infancy: A birth cohort study.

PubMed

Ziyab, A H; Ewart, S; Lockett, G A; Zhang, H; Arshad, H; Holloway, J W; Karmaus, W

2017-09-01

Filaggrin gene (FLG) expression, particularly in the skin, has been linked to the development of the skin barrier and is associated with eczema risk. However, knowledge as to whether FLG expression in umbilical cord blood (UCB) is associated with eczema development and prediction is lacking. This study sought to assess whether FLG expression in UCB associates with and predicts the development of eczema in infancy. Infants enrolled in a birth cohort study (n=94) were assessed for eczema at ages 3, 6, and 12 months. Five probes measuring FLG transcripts expression in UCB were available from genomewide gene expression profiling. FLG genetic variants R501X, 2282del4, and S3247X were genotyped. Associations were assessed using Poisson regression with robust variance estimation. Area under the curve (AUC), describing the discriminatory/predictive performance of fitted models, was estimated from logistic regression. Increased level of FLG expression measured by probe A_24_P51322 was associated with reduced risk of eczema during the first year of life (RR=0.60, 95% CI: 0.38-0.95). In contrast, increased level of FLG antisense transcripts measured by probe A_21_P0014075 was associated with increased risk of eczema (RR=2.02, 95% CI: 1.10-3.72). In prediction models including FLG expression, FLG genetic variants, and sex, discrimination between children who will and will not develop eczema at 3 months of age was high (AUC: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.84-0.98). This study demonstrated, for the first time, that FLG expression in UCB is associated with eczema development in infancy. Moreover, our analysis provided prediction models that were capable of discriminating, to a great extent, between those who will and will not develop eczema in infancy. Therefore, early identification of infants at increased risk of developing eczema is possible and such high-risk newborns may benefit from early stratification and intervention. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of Extrinsic Mortality on the Evolution of Aging: A Stochastic Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Shokhirev, Maxim Nikolaievich; Johnson, Adiv Adam

2014-01-01

The evolutionary theories of aging are useful for gaining insights into the complex mechanisms underlying senescence. Classical theories argue that high levels of extrinsic mortality should select for the evolution of shorter lifespans and earlier peak fertility. Non-classical theories, in contrast, posit that an increase in extrinsic mortality could select for the evolution of longer lifespans. Although numerous studies support the classical paradigm, recent data challenge classical predictions, finding that high extrinsic mortality can select for the evolution of longer lifespans. To further elucidate the role of extrinsic mortality in the evolution of aging, we implemented a stochastic, agent-based, computational model. We used a simulated annealing optimization approach to predict which model parameters predispose populations to evolve longer or shorter lifespans in response to increased levels of predation. We report that longer lifespans evolved in the presence of rising predation if the cost of mating is relatively high and if energy is available in excess. Conversely, we found that dramatically shorter lifespans evolved when mating costs were relatively low and food was relatively scarce. We also analyzed the effects of increased predation on various parameters related to density dependence and energy allocation. Longer and shorter lifespans were accompanied by increased and decreased investments of energy into somatic maintenance, respectively. Similarly, earlier and later maturation ages were accompanied by increased and decreased energetic investments into early fecundity, respectively. Higher predation significantly decreased the total population size, enlarged the shared resource pool, and redistributed energy reserves for mature individuals. These results both corroborate and refine classical predictions, demonstrating a population-level trade-off between longevity and fecundity and identifying conditions that produce both classical and non-classical lifespan effects. PMID:24466165

Characterizing and predicting ultrafine particle counts in Canadian classrooms during the winter months: model development and evaluation.

PubMed

Weichenthal, Scott; Dufresne, André; Infante-Rivard, Claire; Joseph, Lawrence

2008-03-01

School classrooms are potentially important micro-environments for childhood exposures owing to the large amount of time children spend in these locations. While a number of airborne contaminants may be present in schools, to date few studies have examined ultrafine particle (0.02-1 microm) (UFP) levels in classrooms. In this study, our objective was to characterize UFP counts (cm(-3)) in classrooms during the winter months and to develop a model to predict such exposures based on ambient weather conditions and outdoor UFPs, as well as classroom characteristics such as size, temperature, relative humidity, and carbon dioxide levels. In total, UFP count data were collected on 60 occasions in 37 occupied classrooms at one elementary school and one secondary school in Pembroke, Ontario. On average, outdoor UFP levels exceeded indoor measures by 8989 cm(-3) (95% confidence interval (CI): 6382, 11596), and classroom UFP counts were similar at both schools with a combined average of 5017 cm(-3) (95% CI: 4300, 5734). Of the variables examined only wind speed and outdoor UFPs were important determinants of classrooms UFP levels. Specifically, each 10 km/h increase in wind speed corresponded to an 1873 cm(-3) (95% CI: 825, 2920) decrease in classroom UFP counts, and each 10000 cm(-3) increase in outdoor UFPs corresponded to a 1550 cm(-3) (95% CI: 930, 2171) increase in classroom UFP levels. However, high correlations between these two predictors meant that the independent effects of wind speed and outdoor UFPs could not be separated in multivariable models, and only outdoor UFP counts were included in the final predictive model. To evaluate model performance, classroom UFP counts were collected for 8 days at two new schools and compared to predicted values based on outdoor UFP measures. A moderate correlation was observed between measured and predicted classroom UFP counts (r=0.63) for both schools combined, but this relationship was not valid on days in which a strong indoor UFP source (electric kitchen stove) was active in schools. In general, our findings suggest that reasonable estimates of classroom UFP counts may be obtained from outdoor UFP data but that the accuracy of such estimates are limited in the presence of indoor UFP sources.

Activated neuro-oxidative and neuro-nitrosative pathways at the end of term are associated with inflammation and physio-somatic and depression symptoms, while predicting outcome characteristics in mother and baby.

PubMed

Roomruangwong, Chutima; Barbosa, Decio Sabbatini; Matsumoto, Andressa Keiko; Nogueira, André de Souza; Kanchanatawan, Buranee; Sirivichayakul, Sunee; Carvalho, André F; Duleu, Sebastien; Geffard, Michel; Moreira, Estefania Gastaldello; Maes, Michael

2017-12-01

To examine oxidative & nitrosative stress (O&NS) biomarkers at the end of term in relation to perinatal affective symptoms, neuro-immune biomarkers and pregnancy-related outcome variables. We measured plasma advanced oxidation protein products (AOPP), nitric oxide metabolites (NOx), total radical trapping antioxidant parameter (TRAP), -sulfhydryl (-SH), peroxides (LOOH) and paraoxonase (PON)1 activity in pregnant women with and without prenatal depression and non-pregnant controls. Pregnancy is accompanied by significantly increased AOPP and NOx, and lowered TRAP, -SH and LOOH. Increased O&NS and lowered LOOH and -SH levels are associated with prenatal depressive and physio-somatic symptoms (fatigue, pain, dyspepsia, gastro-intestinal symptoms). Increased AOPP and NOx are significantly associated with lowered -SH, TRAP and zinc, and with increased haptoglobin and C-reactive protein levels. Increased O&NS and lowered TRAP and PON 1 activity, at the end of term predict mother (e.g. hyperpigmentation, labor duration, caesarian section, cord length, breast milk flow) and baby (e.g. sleep and feeding problems) outcome characteristics. Pregnancy is accompanied by interrelated signs of O&NS, lowered antioxidant defenses and activated neuro-immune pathways. Increased O&NS at the end of term is associated with perinatal depressive and physio-somatic symptoms and may predict obstetric and behavioral complications in mother and baby. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lip-reading aids word recognition most in moderate noise: a Bayesian explanation using high-dimensional feature space.

PubMed

Ma, Wei Ji; Zhou, Xiang; Ross, Lars A; Foxe, John J; Parra, Lucas C

2009-01-01

Watching a speaker's facial movements can dramatically enhance our ability to comprehend words, especially in noisy environments. From a general doctrine of combining information from different sensory modalities (the principle of inverse effectiveness), one would expect that the visual signals would be most effective at the highest levels of auditory noise. In contrast, we find, in accord with a recent paper, that visual information improves performance more at intermediate levels of auditory noise than at the highest levels, and we show that a novel visual stimulus containing only temporal information does the same. We present a Bayesian model of optimal cue integration that can explain these conflicts. In this model, words are regarded as points in a multidimensional space and word recognition is a probabilistic inference process. When the dimensionality of the feature space is low, the Bayesian model predicts inverse effectiveness; when the dimensionality is high, the enhancement is maximal at intermediate auditory noise levels. When the auditory and visual stimuli differ slightly in high noise, the model makes a counterintuitive prediction: as sound quality increases, the proportion of reported words corresponding to the visual stimulus should first increase and then decrease. We confirm this prediction in a behavioral experiment. We conclude that auditory-visual speech perception obeys the same notion of optimality previously observed only for simple multisensory stimuli.

High-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer: Use of Machine Learning to Predict Abdominopelvic Recurrence on CT on the Basis of Serial Cancer Antigen 125 Levels.

PubMed

Shinagare, Atul B; Balthazar, Patricia; Ip, Ivan K; Lacson, Ronilda; Liu, Joyce; Ramaiya, Nikhil; Khorasani, Ramin

2018-05-19

The aim of this study was to use machine learning to predict abdominal recurrence on CT on the basis of serial cancer antigen 125 (CA125) levels in patients with advanced high-grade serous ovarian cancer on surveillance. This institutional review board-approved, HIPAA-compliant, retrospective, hypothesis-generating study included all 57 patients (mean age, 61 ± 11.2 years) with advanced high-grade serous ovarian cancer who underwent cytoreductive surgery from January to December 2012, followed by surveillance abdominopelvic CT and corresponding CA125 levels. A blinded radiologist reviewed abdominopelvic CT studies until recurrence was noted. Four measures of CA125 were assessed: actual CA125 levels at the time of CT, absolute change since prior CT, relative change since prior CT, and rate of change since prior CT. Using machine learning, support vector machine models were optimized and evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation to determine the CA125 measure most predictive of abdominal recurrence. The association of the most accurate CA125 measure was further analyzed using Cox proportional-hazards model along with age, tumor size, stage, and degree of cytoreduction. Rate of change in CA125 was most predictive of abdominal recurrence in a linear kernel support vector machine model and was significantly higher preceding CT studies showing abdominal recurrence (median 13.2 versus 0.6 units/month; P = .007). On multivariate analysis, a higher rate of CA125 increase was significantly associated with recurrence (hazard ratio, 1.02 per 10 units change; 95% confidence interval, 1.0006-1.04; P = .04). A higher rate of CA125 increase is associated with abdominal recurrence. The rate of increase of CA125 may help in the selection of patients who are most likely to benefit from abdominopelvic CT in surveillance of ovarian cancer. Copyright © 2018 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Salivary Actinomyces naeslundii genospecies 2 and Lactobacillus casei levels predict pregnancy outcomes.

PubMed

Dasanayake, Ananda P; Li, Yihong; Wiener, Howard; Ruby, John D; Lee, Men-Jean

2005-02-01

Gravida's poor periodontal health is emerging as a modifiable independent risk factor for preterm delivery and low birth weight. To test the hypothesis that oral bacteria other than periodontal pathogens are also associated with pregnancy outcomes, specific oral bacterial levels measured during pregnancy were evaluated in relation to gestational age and birth weight while controlling for demographic, medical, and dental variables. The study population consisted of 297 predominantly African- American women who were pregnant for the first time. The salivary bacterial levels evaluated were Streptococcus mutans, Streptococcus sobrinus, Streptococcus sanguinus, Lactobacillus acidophilus, Lactobacillus casei, Actinomyces naeslundii genospecies (gsp) 1 and 2, total streptococci, and total cultivable organisms. For 1 unit increase in log(10) A. naeslundii gsp 2 levels, there was a 60 gm decrease in birth weight (beta = -59.7 g; SE = 29.1; P = 0.04), and a 0.17 week decrease in gestational age (beta = -0.17 wk; SE = 0.09; P = 0.05). In contrast, per 1 unit increase in log(10) L. casei levels, there was a 42 gm increase in birth weight (beta = 42.2 g; SE = 19.3; P = 0.03), and a 0.13 week increase in gestational age (beta = 0.13 week; SE = 0.06; P = 0.04). We conclude that other oral bacterial species can also be related to pregnancy outcomes in addition to previously reported periodontal pathogens. These organism levels may not only predict poor pregnancy outcomes, but also be used as modifiable risk factors in reducing prematurity and low birth weight.

Early plasma monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 predicts the development of sepsis in trauma patients: A prospective observational study.

PubMed

Wang, Yuchang; Liu, Qinxin; Liu, Tao; Zheng, Qiang; Xu, Xi'e; Liu, Xinghua; Gao, Wei; Li, Zhanfei; Bai, Xiangjun

2018-04-01

Monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP-1) is an initiating cytokine of the inflammatory cascade. Extracellular MCP-1 exhibits pro-inflammatory characteristic and plays a central pathogenic role in critical illness. The purpose of the study was to identify the association between plasma MCP-1 levels and the development of sepsis after severe trauma.The plasma levels of MCP-1 in severe trauma patients were measured by a quantitative enzyme-linked immune sorbent assay and the dynamic release patterns were recorded at three time points during seven days post-trauma. The related factors of prognosis were compared between sepsis and non-sepsis groups and analyzed using multivariate logistic regression analysis. We also used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to assess the values of different variables in predicting sepsis.A total of 72 patients who met criteria indicative of severe trauma (72.22% of male; mean age, 49.40 ± 14.29 years) were enrolled. Plasma MCP-1 concentrations significantly increased on post-trauma day 1 and that this increase was significantly correlated with the Injury Severity Score (ISS) and interleukin-6 (IL-6). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that early MCP-1, ISS, and IL-6 were independent risk factors for sepsis in severe trauma patients. Incorporation of the early MCP-1 into the ISS can increase the discriminative performance for predicting development of sepsis.Early plasma MCP-1 concentrations can be used to assess the severity of trauma and is correlated with the development of sepsis after severe trauma. The addition of the early MCP-1 levels to the ISS significantly improves its ability to predict development of sepsis.

A prospective examination of depression, anxiety and stress throughout pregnancy.

PubMed

Rallis, Sofia; Skouteris, Helen; McCabe, Marita; Milgrom, Jeannette

2014-12-01

Perinatal distress has largely been conceptualised as the experience of depression and/or anxiety. Recent research has shown that the affective state of stress is also present during the perinatal period and thus may add to a broader understanding of perinatal distress. The aims of the present study were to investigate the changes in depression, anxiety and stress symptoms across pregnancy, and to explore the prospective relationships between these symptoms. Two-hundred and fourteen pregnant women were recruited when they were less than 16 weeks gestation. Women completed depression, anxiety and stress measures on a monthly basis, from 16 weeks gestation through to 36 weeks gestation. The covariate measures of sleep quality and social support were assessed bi-monthly at 16, 24 and 32 weeks gestation. Levels of depression, anxiety and stress symptoms were all shown to change over time, with women experiencing fewer symptoms during the middle of their pregnancy. Higher symptoms early in pregnancy predicted higher symptom levels throughout the rest of pregnancy. Higher depression scores early in pregnancy were also shown to predict higher anxiety and higher stress scores in late pregnancy. Increased stress scores during mid pregnancy also predicted higher anxiety scores in late pregnancy. Current findings indicate that symptom levels of depression, anxiety and stress vary over the course of pregnancy. Increased depression in early pregnancy seemed to be particularly pertinent as it not only predicted later depression symptoms, but also increased anxiety and stress in late pregnancy. Collectively, these results further highlight the importance of emotional health screening early in pregnancy. Copyright © 2014 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of different ovarian responses using anti-Müllerian hormone following a long agonist treatment protocol for IVF.

PubMed

Heidar, Z; Bakhtiyari, M; Mirzamoradi, M; Zadehmodarres, S; Sarfjoo, F S; Mansournia, M A

2015-09-01

The purpose of this study was to predict the poor and excessive ovarian response using anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels following a long agonist protocol in IVF candidates. Through a prospective cohort study, the type of relationship and appropriate scale for AMH were determined using the fractional polynomial regression. To determine the effect of AMH on the outcomes of ovarian stimulation and different ovarian responses, the multi-nominal and negative binomial regression models were fitted using backward stepwise method. The ovarian response of study subject who entered a standard long-term treatment cycle with GnRH agonist was evaluated using prediction model, separately and in combined models with (ROC) curves. The use of standard long-term treatments with GnRH agonist led to positive pregnancy test results in 30% of treated patients. With each unit increase in the log of AMH, the odds ratio of having poor response compared to normal response decreases by 64% (OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.19-0.68). Also the results of negative binomial regression model indicated that for one unit increase in the log of AMH blood levels, the odds of releasing an oocyte increased 24% (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.14-1.35). The optimal cut-off points of AMH for predicting excessive and poor ovarian responses were 3.4 and 1.2 ng/ml, respectively, with area under curves of 0.69 (0.60-0.77) and 0.76 (0.66-0.86), respectively. By considering the age of the patient undergoing infertility treatment as a variable affecting ovulation, use of AMH levels showed to be a good test to discriminate between different ovarian responses.

Intraspecific trait variation and the leaf economics spectrum across resource gradients and levels of organization.

PubMed

Fajardo, Alex; Siefert, Andrew

2018-05-01

Understanding patterns of functional trait variation across environmental gradients offers an opportunity to increase inference in the mechanistic causes of plant community assembly. The leaf economics spectrum (LES) predicts global tradeoffs in leaf traits and trait-environment relationships, but few studies have examined whether these predictions hold across different levels of organization, particularly within species. Here, we asked (1) whether the main assumptions of the LES (expected trait relationships and shifts in trait values across resource gradients) hold at the intraspecific level, and (2) how within-species trait correlations scale up to interspecific or among-community levels. We worked with leaf traits of saplings of woody species growing across light and soil N and P availability gradients in temperate rainforests of southern Chile. We found that ITV accounted for a large proportion of community-level variation in leaf traits (e.g., LMA and leaf P) and played an important role in driving community-level shifts in leaf traits across environmental gradients. Additionally, intraspecific leaf trait relationships were generally consistent with interspecific and community-level trait relationships and with LES predictions-e.g., a strong negative intraspecific LMA-leaf N correlation-although, most trait relationships varied significantly among species, suggesting idiosyncrasies in the LES at the intraspecific level. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Goal adjustment, physical and sedentary activity, and well-being and health among breast cancer survivors.

PubMed

Wrosch, Carsten; Sabiston, Catherine M

2013-03-01

This longitudinal study examined whether goal adjustment capacities (i.e., goal disengagement and goal reengagement) would predict breast cancer survivors' emotional well-being and physical health by facilitating high levels of physical activity and low levels of sedentary activity. Self-reports of goal adjustment capacities were measured among 176 female breast cancer survivors at baseline. Self-reports of physical activity, sedentary activity, daily affect, and daily physical health symptoms (e.g., nausea or pain) were measured at baseline and 3-month follow-up. Goal reengagement predicted high levels of positive affect and low levels of physical symptoms at baseline and increases in positive affect over 3 months. The combination of high goal disengagement and high goal reengagement was associated with particularly large 3-month increases in positive affect. The effects of goal reengagement on baseline affect and physical health were mediated by high baseline levels of physical activity, and the interaction effect on 3-month changes in positive affect was mediated by low baseline levels of sedentary activity. Goal adjustment capacities can exert beneficial effects on breast cancer survivors' well-being and physical health by facilitating adaptive levels of physical and sedentary activity. Integrating goal adjustment processes into clinical practice may be warranted. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of shading on growth and development of northern red oak, black oak, black cherry, and red maple seedlings. II. biomass partitioning and prediction

Treesearch

Kurt W. Gottschalk

1987-01-01

Northern red oak, black oak, black cherry, and red maple seedlings were grown under light treatments ranging from 8 to 94% of full sunlight for 2 years. Growth was least at the lowest light level and total dry weight increased with increasing light. Total dry-weight rankings (largest to smallest) at all light levels were black cherry, northern red oak, black oak, and...

The Payout Method: A Spending Policy That Enhances Return.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrell, Louis R.

1991-01-01

College and university business officers are encouraged to implement an endowment distribution method that increases the amount distributed by a fixed annual percentage based on asset mix, inflation, and expected return. Such a payout system provides a predictable, steadily increasing level of endowment income yet maintains the purchasing power of…

Plant functional traits improve diversity-based predictions of temporal stability of grassland productivity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) varies in response to temporal fluctuations in weather. Temporal stability (mean/standard deviation) of community ANPP may be increased, on average, by increasing plant species richness, but stability also may differ widely at a given richness level imply...

Artificial neural networks as a useful tool to predict the risk level of Betula pollen in the air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellano-Méndez, M.; Aira, M. J.; Iglesias, I.; Jato, V.; González-Manteiga, W.

2005-05-01

An increasing percentage of the European population suffers from allergies to pollen. The study of the evolution of air pollen concentration supplies prior knowledge of the levels of pollen in the air, which can be useful for the prevention and treatment of allergic symptoms, and the management of medical resources. The symptoms of Betula pollinosis can be associated with certain levels of pollen in the air. The aim of this study was to predict the risk of the concentration of pollen exceeding a given level, using previous pollen and meteorological information, by applying neural network techniques. Neural networks are a widespread statistical tool useful for the study of problems associated with complex or poorly understood phenomena. The binary response variable associated with each level requires a careful selection of the neural network and the error function associated with the learning algorithm used during the training phase. The performance of the neural network with the validation set showed that the risk of the pollen level exceeding a certain threshold can be successfully forecasted using artificial neural networks. This prediction tool may be implemented to create an automatic system that forecasts the risk of suffering allergic symptoms.

Cognitive Vulnerability to Depressive Symptoms in Children: The Protective Role of Self-efficacy Beliefs in a Multi-Wave Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Steca, P.; Abela, J. R. Z.; Monzani, D.; Greco, A.; Hazel, N. A.; Hankin, B. L.

2015-01-01

The current multi-wave longitudinal study on childhood examined the role that social and academic self-efficacy beliefs and cognitive vulnerabilities play in predicting depressive symptoms in response to elevations in idiographic stressors. Children (N = 554; males: 51.4%) attending second and third grade completed measures of depressive symptoms, negative cognitive styles, negative life events, and academic and social self-efficacy beliefs at four time-points over 6 months. Results showed that high levels of academic and social self-efficacy beliefs predicted lower levels of depressive symptoms, whereas negative cognitive styles about consequences predicted higher depression. Furthermore, children reporting higher social self-efficacy beliefs showed a smaller elevation in levels of depressive symptoms when reporting an increases in stress than children with lower social self-efficacy beliefs. Findings point to the role of multiple factors in predicting children’s depression in the long term and commend the promotion of self-efficacy beliefs and the modification of cognitive dysfunctional styles as relevant protective factors. PMID:23740171

Predicting Changes in Depressive Symptoms from Pregnancy to Postpartum: The Role of Brooding Rumination and Negative Inferential Styles

PubMed Central

Barnum, Sarah E.; Woody, Mary L.; Gibb, Brandon E.

2014-01-01

The current study examined the role of cognitive factors in the development and maintenance of depressive symptoms from pregnancy into the postpartum period. One hundred and one women were assessed for levels of rumination (brooding and reflection), negative inferential styles, and depressive symptoms in their third trimester of pregnancy and depressive symptom levels again at four and eight weeks postpartum. We found that, although none of the three cognitive variables predicted women’s initial depressive reactions following childbirth (from pregnancy to one month postpartum), brooding rumination and negative inferential styles predicted longer-term depressive symptom changes (from pregnancy to two months postpartum). However, the predictive validity of women’s negative inferential styles was limited to women already exhibiting relatively high depressive symptom levels during pregnancy, suggesting that it was more strongly related to the maintenance of depressive symptoms into the postpartum period rather than increases in depressive symptoms following childbirth. Modifying cognitive risk factors, therefore, may be an important focus of intervention for depression during pregnancy. PMID:25401383

Predicting impending death: inconsistency in speed is a selective and early marker.

PubMed

Macdonald, Stuart W S; Hultsch, David F; Dixon, Roger A

2008-09-01

Among older adults, deficits in both level and variability of speeded performance are linked to neurological impairment. This study examined whether and when speed (rate), speed (inconsistency), and traditional accuracy-based markers of cognitive performance foreshadow terminal decline and impending death. Victoria Longitudinal Study data spanning 12 years (5 waves) of measurement were assembled for 707 adults aged 59 to 95 years. Whereas 442 survivors completed all waves and relevant measures, 265 decedents participated on at least 1 occasion and subsequently died. Four main results were observed. First, Cox regressions evaluating the 3 cognitive predictors of mortality replicated previous results for cognitive accuracy predictors. Second, level (rate) of speeded performance predicted survival independent of demographic indicators, cardiovascular health, and cognitive performance level. Third, inconsistency in speed predicted survival independent of all influences combined. Fourth, follow-up random-effects models revealed increases in inconsistency in speed per year closer to death, with advancing age further moderating the accelerated growth. Hierarchical prediction patterns support the view that inconsistency in speed is an early behavioral marker of neurological dysfunction associated with impending death. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

Predicting Impending Death: Inconsistency in Speed is a Selective and Early Marker

PubMed Central

MacDonald, Stuart W.S.; Hultsch, David F.; Dixon, Roger A.

2008-01-01

Among older adults, deficits in both level and variability of speeded performance are linked to neurological impairment. This study examined whether and when speed (rate), speed (inconsistency), and traditional accuracy-based markers of cognitive performance foreshadow terminal decline and impending death. Victoria Longitudinal Study data spanning 12 years (5 waves) of measurement were assembled for 707 adults aged 59 to 95 years. Whereas 442 survivors completed all waves and relevant measures, 265 decedents participated on at least one occasion and subsequently died. Four main results were observed. First, Cox regressions evaluating the three cognitive predictors of mortality replicated previous results for cognitive accuracy predictors. Second, level (rate) of speeded performance predicted survival independent of demographic indicators, cardiovascular health, and cognitive performance level. Third, inconsistency in speed predicted survival independent of all influences combined. Fourth, follow-up random-effects models revealed increases in inconsistency in speed per year closer to death, with advancing age further moderating the accelerated growth. Hierarchical prediction patterns support the view that inconsistency in speed is an early behavioral marker of neurological dysfunction associated with impending death. PMID:18808249

Structural integrity of frontostriatal connections predicts longitudinal changes in self-esteem.

PubMed

Chavez, Robert S; Heatherton, Todd F

2017-06-01

Diverse neurological and psychiatric conditions are marked by a diminished sense of positive self-regard, and reductions in self-esteem are associated with risk for these disorders. Recent evidence has shown that the connectivity of frontostriatal circuitry reflects individual differences in self-esteem. However, it remains an open question as to whether the integrity of these connections can predict self-esteem changes over larger timescales. Using diffusion magnetic resonance imaging and probabilistic tractography, we demonstrate that the integrity of white matter pathways linking the medial prefrontal cortex to the ventral striatum predicts changes in self-esteem 8 months after initial scanning in a sample of 30 young adults. Individuals with greater integrity of this pathway during the scanning session at Time 1 showed increased levels of self-esteem at follow-up, whereas individuals with lower integrity showed stifled or decreased levels of self-esteem. These results provide evidence that frontostriatal white matter integrity predicts the trajectory of self-esteem development in early adulthood, which may contribute to blunted levels of positive self-regard seen in multiple psychiatric conditions, including depression and anxiety.

Implicit Race Bias Decreases the Similarity of Neural Representations of Black and White Faces

PubMed Central

Brosch, Tobias; Bar-David, Eyal; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

Implicit race bias has been shown to affect decisions and behaviors. It may also change perceptual experience by increasing perceived differences between social groups. We investigated how this phenomenon may be expressed at the neural level by testing whether the distributed blood-oxygenation-level-dependent (BOLD) patterns representing Black and White faces are more dissimilar in participants with higher implicit race bias. We used multivoxel pattern analysis to predict the race of faces participants were viewing. We successfully predicted the race of the faces on the basis of BOLD activation patterns in early occipital visual cortex, occipital face area, and fusiform face area (FFA). Whereas BOLD activation patterns in early visual regions, likely reflecting different perceptual features, allowed successful prediction for all participants, successful prediction on the basis of BOLD activation patterns in FFA, a high-level face-processing region, was restricted to participants with high pro-White bias. These findings suggest that stronger implicit pro-White bias decreases the similarity of neural representations of Black and White faces. PMID:23300228

Structural Integrity of Frontostriatal Connections Predicts Longitudinal Changes in Self-esteem

PubMed Central

Chavez, Robert S.; Heatherton, Todd F.

2016-01-01

Diverse neurological and psychiatric conditions are marked by a diminished sense of positive self-regard, and reductions in self-esteem are associated with risk for these disorders. Recent evidence has shown that the connectivity of frontostriatal circuitry reflects individual differences in self-esteem. However, it remains an open question as to whether the integrity of these connections can predict self-esteem changes over larger timescales. Using diffusion magnetic resonance imaging and probabilistic tractography, we demonstrate that the integrity of white matter pathways linking the medial prefrontal cortex to the ventral striatum predicts changes in self-esteem eight months after initial scanning in sample of thirty young adults. Individuals with greater integrity of this pathway during the scanning session at Time 1 showed increased levels of self-esteem at follow-up, whereas individuals with lower integrity showed stifled or decreased levels of self-esteem. These results provide evidence that frontostriatal white matter integrity predicts the trajectory of self-esteem development in early adulthood, which may contribute to blunted levels of positive self-regard seen in multiple psychiatric conditions including depression and anxiety. PMID:26966986

Online gaming and risks predict cyberbullying perpetration and victimization in adolescents.

PubMed

Chang, Fong-Ching; Chiu, Chiung-Hui; Miao, Nae-Fang; Chen, Ping-Hung; Lee, Ching-Mei; Huang, Tzu-Fu; Pan, Yun-Chieh

2015-02-01

The present study examined factors associated with the emergence and cessation of youth cyberbullying and victimization in Taiwan. A total of 2,315 students from 26 high schools were assessed in the 10th grade, with follow-up performed in the 11th grade. Self-administered questionnaires were collected in 2010 and 2011. Multiple logistic regression was conducted to examine the factors. Multivariate analysis results indicated that higher levels of risk factors (online game use, exposure to violence in media, internet risk behaviors, cyber/school bullying experiences) in the 10th grade coupled with an increase in risk factors from grades 10 to 11 could be used to predict the emergence of cyberbullying perpetration/victimization. In contrast, lower levels of risk factors in the 10th grade and higher levels of protective factors coupled with a decrease in risk factors predicted the cessation of cyberbullying perpetration/victimization. Online game use, exposure to violence in media, Internet risk behaviors, and cyber/school bullying experiences can be used to predict the emergence and cessation of youth cyberbullying perpetration and victimization.

Plasma bilirubin values on admission and ventricular remodeling after a first anterior ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Miranda, Berta; Barrabés, José A; Figueras, Jaume; Pineda, Victor; Rodríguez-Palomares, José; Lidón, Rosa-Maria; Sambola, Antonia; Bañeras, Jordi; Otaegui, Imanol; García-Dorado, David

2016-01-01

Bilirubin may elicit cardiovascular protection and heme oxygenase-1 overexpression attenuated post-infarction ventricular remodeling in experimental animals, but the association between bilirubin levels and post-infarction remodeling is unknown. In 145 patients with a first anterior ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEMI), we assessed whether plasma bilirubin on admission predicted adverse remodeling (left ventricular end-diastolic volume [LVEDV] increase ≥20% between discharge and 6 months, estimated by magnetic resonance imaging). Patients' baseline characteristics and management were comparable among bilirubin tertiles. LVEDV increased at 6 months (P < 0.001) with respect to the initial exam, but the magnitude of this increase was similar across increasing bilirubin tertiles (10.8 [30.2], 10.1 [22.9], and 12.7 [24.3]%, P = 0.500). Median (25-75 percentile) bilirubin values in patients with and without adverse remodeling were 0.75 (0.60-0.93) and 0.73 (0.60-0.92) mg/dL (P = 0.693). Absence of final TIMI flow grade 3 (odds ratio 3.92, 95% CI 1.12-13.66) and a history of hypertension (2.04, 0.93-4.50), but not admission bilirubin, were independently associated with adverse remodeling. Bilirubin also did not predict the increase in ejection fraction at 6 months. Admission bilirubin values are not related to LVEDV or ejection fraction progression after a first anterior STEMI and do not predict adverse ventricular remodeling. Key messages Bilirubin levels are inversely related to cardiovascular disease, and overexpression of heme oxygenase-1 (the enzyme that determines bilirubin production) has prevented post-infarction ventricular remodeling in experimental animals, but the association between bilirubin levels and the progression of ventricular volumes and function in patients with acute myocardial infarction remained unexplored. In this cohort of patients with a first acute anterior ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction receiving contemporary management, bilirubin levels on admission were not predictive of the changes in left ventricular volumes or ejection fraction at 6 months measured by serial cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. The data are contrary to a significant protective effect of bilirubin against post-infarction ventricular remodeling.

Effectiveness of repeated examination to diagnose enterobiasis in nursery school groups.

PubMed

Remm, Mare; Remm, Kalle

2009-09-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the benefit from repeated examinations in the diagnosis of enterobiasis in nursery school groups, and to test the effectiveness of individual-based risk predictions using different methods. A total of 604 children were examined using double, and 96 using triple, anal swab examinations. The questionnaires for parents, structured observations, and interviews with supervisors were used to identify factors of possible infection risk. In order to model the risk of enterobiasis at individual level, a similarity-based machine learning and prediction software Constud was compared with data mining methods in the Statistica 8 Data Miner software package. Prevalence according to a single examination was 22.5%; the increase as a result of double examinations was 8.2%. Single swabs resulted in an estimated prevalence of 20.1% among children examined 3 times; double swabs increased this by 10.1%, and triple swabs by 7.3%. Random forest classification, boosting classification trees, and Constud correctly predicted about 2/3 of the results of the second examination. Constud estimated a mean prevalence of 31.5% in groups. Constud was able to yield the highest overall fit of individual-based predictions while boosting classification tree and random forest models were more effective in recognizing Enterobius positive persons. As a rule, the actual prevalence of enterobiasis is higher than indicated by a single examination. We suggest using either the values of the mean increase in prevalence after double examinations compared to single examinations or group estimations deduced from individual-level modelled risk predictions.

Effectiveness of Repeated Examination to Diagnose Enterobiasis in Nursery School Groups

PubMed Central

Remm, Kalle

2009-01-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the benefit from repeated examinations in the diagnosis of enterobiasis in nursery school groups, and to test the effectiveness of individual-based risk predictions using different methods. A total of 604 children were examined using double, and 96 using triple, anal swab examinations. The questionnaires for parents, structured observations, and interviews with supervisors were used to identify factors of possible infection risk. In order to model the risk of enterobiasis at individual level, a similarity-based machine learning and prediction software Constud was compared with data mining methods in the Statistica 8 Data Miner software package. Prevalence according to a single examination was 22.5%; the increase as a result of double examinations was 8.2%. Single swabs resulted in an estimated prevalence of 20.1% among children examined 3 times; double swabs increased this by 10.1%, and triple swabs by 7.3%. Random forest classification, boosting classification trees, and Constud correctly predicted about 2/3 of the results of the second examination. Constud estimated a mean prevalence of 31.5% in groups. Constud was able to yield the highest overall fit of individual-based predictions while boosting classification tree and random forest models were more effective in recognizing Enterobius positive persons. As a rule, the actual prevalence of enterobiasis is higher than indicated by a single examination. We suggest using either the values of the mean increase in prevalence after double examinations compared to single examinations or group estimations deduced from individual-level modelled risk predictions. PMID:19724696

Early Detection of Heart Failure Using Electronic Health Records: Practical Implications for Time Before Diagnosis, Data Diversity, Data Quantity, and Data Density.

PubMed

Ng, Kenney; Steinhubl, Steven R; deFilippi, Christopher; Dey, Sanjoy; Stewart, Walter F

2016-11-01

Using electronic health records data to predict events and onset of diseases is increasingly common. Relatively little is known, although, about the tradeoffs between data requirements and model utility. We examined the performance of machine learning models trained to detect prediagnostic heart failure in primary care patients using longitudinal electronic health records data. Model performance was assessed in relation to data requirements defined by the prediction window length (time before clinical diagnosis), the observation window length (duration of observation before prediction window), the number of different data domains (data diversity), the number of patient records in the training data set (data quantity), and the density of patient encounters (data density). A total of 1684 incident heart failure cases and 13 525 sex, age-category, and clinic matched controls were used for modeling. Model performance improved as (1) the prediction window length decreases, especially when <2 years; (2) the observation window length increases but then levels off after 2 years; (3) the training data set size increases but then levels off after 4000 patients; (4) more diverse data types are used, but, in order, the combination of diagnosis, medication order, and hospitalization data was most important; and (5) data were confined to patients who had ≥10 phone or face-to-face encounters in 2 years. These empirical findings suggest possible guidelines for the minimum amount and type of data needed to train effective disease onset predictive models using longitudinal electronic health records data. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Social Interaction in Adventure Recreation Participation

Treesearch

Michael A. Schuett

1992-01-01

This study investigated the social interaction of white water kayakers and attempted to predict the level of enduring involvement of participants. It was hypothesized that social interaction would shift from classes and programs to peers of similar interests as level of involvement increased. The results did show that social interaction is a primary reason for...

Infection of five Phytophthora ramorum hosts in response to increasing inoculum levels

Treesearch

Paul Tooley; Marsha Browning; Robert Leighty

2013-01-01

The objective of this work was to establish inoculum density relationships between Phytophthora ramorum and selected hosts based on whole plant inoculations. Knowledge of levels of initial inoculum needed to generate epidemics is needed for disease prediction and development of pest risk assessments. Sporangia of six P. ramorum...

Anxiety Interacts With Expressed Emotion Criticism in the Prediction of Psychotic Symptom Exacerbation

PubMed Central

Docherty, Nancy M.; St-Hilaire, Annie; Aakre, Jennifer M.; Seghers, James P.; McCleery, Amanda; Divilbiss, Marielle

2011-01-01

Psychotic symptoms are exacerbated by social stressors in schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder patients as a group. More specifically, critical attitudes toward patients on the part of family members and others have been associated with a higher risk of relapse in the patients. Some patients appear to be especially vulnerable in this regard. One variable that could affect the degree of sensitivity to a social stressor such as criticism is the individual’s level of anxiety. The present longitudinal study assessed 27 relatively stable outpatients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder and the single “most influential other” (MIO) person for each patient. As hypothesized, (1) patients with high critical MIOs showed increases in psychotic symptoms over time, compared with patients with low critical MIOs; (2) patients high in anxiety at the baseline assessment showed increases in psychotic symptoms at follow-up, compared with patients low in anxiety, and (3) patients with high levels of anxiety at baseline and high critical MIOs showed the greatest exacerbation of psychotic symptoms over time. Objectively measured levels of criticism were more predictive than patient-rated levels of criticism. PMID:19892819

Changes in Income at Macro Level Predict Sex Ratio at Birth in OECD Countries.

PubMed

Kanninen, Ohto; Karhula, Aleksi

2016-01-01

The human sex ratio at birth (SRB) is approximately 107 boys for every 100 girls. SRB was rising until the World War II and has been declining slightly after the 1950s in several industrial countries. Recent studies have shown that SRB varies according to exposure to disasters and socioeconomic conditions. However, it remains unknown whether changes in SRB can be explained by observable macro-level socioeconomic variables across multiple years and countries. Here we show that changes in disposable income at the macro level positively predict SRB in OECD countries. A one standard deviation increase in the change of disposable income is associated with an increase of 1.03 male births per 1000 female births. The relationship is possibly nonlinear and driven by extreme changes. The association varies from country to country being particular strong in Estonia. This is the first evidence to show that economic and social conditions are connected to SRB across countries at the macro level. This calls for further research on the effects of societal conditions on general characteristics at birth.

The prospective relationship between satisfaction with information and symptoms of depression and anxiety in breast cancer: A structural equation modeling analysis.

PubMed

Faller, Hermann; Strahl, André; Richard, Matthias; Niehues, Christiane; Meng, Karin

2017-11-01

Previous research has demonstrated associations between satisfaction with information and reduced emotional distress in cancer patients. However, as most studies were cross-sectional, the direction of this relationship remained unclear. We therefore aimed to test whether information satisfaction predicted subsequent depression and anxiety levels, and, reciprocally, depression and anxiety levels predicted subsequent information satisfaction, thus clarifying the direction of impact. We performed a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study with 436 female breast cancer patients (mean age 51 years). We measured information satisfaction with 2 self-developed items, symptoms of depression with the 2-item Patient Heath Questionnaire and symptoms of anxiety with the 2-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale. We created 2 structural equation models, 1 for depression and 1 for anxiety, that examined the prediction of 1-year depression (or anxiety) levels by baseline information satisfaction and, in the same model, 1-year information satisfaction by baseline depression (or anxiety) levels (cross-lagged panel analysis). Baseline information satisfaction predicted 1-year levels of both depression (beta = -0.17, P < .01) and anxiety (beta = -0.13, P < .01), adjusting for the baseline scores of the outcome variables. Conversely, baseline levels of depression (beta = -0.12, P < .05) and anxiety (beta = -0.16, P < .01) predicted 1-year information satisfaction, adjusting for its baseline score. Our results suggest a bidirectional relationship between information satisfaction and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Thus, provision of information may reduce subsequent depression and anxiety, while reducing depression and anxiety levels may increase satisfaction with received information. Combining the provision of information with emotional support may be particularly beneficial. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Interferon-γ-inducible protein-10 in chronic hepatitis C: Correlations with insulin resistance, histological features & sustained virological response.

PubMed

Crisan, Dana; Grigorescu, Mircea Dan; Radu, Corina; Suciu, Alina; Grigorescu, Mircea

2017-04-01

One of the multiple factors contributing to virological response in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is interferon-gamma-inducible protein-10 (IP-10). Its level reflects the status of interferon-stimulated genes, which in turn is associated with virological response to antiviral therapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of serum IP-10 levels on sustained virological response (SVR) and the association of this parameter with insulin resistance (IR) and liver histology. Two hundred and three consecutive biopsy proven CHC patients were included in the study. Serum levels of IP-10 were determined using ELISA method. IR was evaluated by homeostasis model assessment-IR (HOMA-IR). Histological features were assessed invasively by liver biopsy and noninvasively using FibroTest, ActiTest and SteatoTest. Predictive factors for SVR and their interrelations were assessed. A cut-off value for IP-10 of 392 pg/ml was obtained to discriminate between responders and non-responders. SVR was obtained in 107 patients (52.70%). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for SVR was 0.875 with a sensitivity of 91.6 per cent, specificity 74.7 per cent, positive predictive value 80.3 per cent and negative predictive value 88.7 per cent. Higher values of IP-10 were associated with increasing stages of fibrosis (P<0.01) and higher grades of inflammation (P=0.02, P=0.07) assessed morphologically and noninvasively through FibroTest and ActiTest. Significant steatosis and IR were also associated with increased levels of IP-10 (P=0.01 and P=0.02). In multivariate analysis, IP-10 levels and fibrosis stages were independently associated with SVR. Our findings showed that the assessment of serum IP-10 level could be a predictive factor for SVR and it was associated with fibrosis, necroinflammatory activity, significant steatosis and IR in patients with chronic HCV infection.

Carbon cycling at the tipping point: Does ecosystem structure predict resistance to disturbance?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gough, C. M.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Stuart-Haentjens, E.; Atkins, J.; Haber, L.; Fahey, R. T.

2017-12-01

Ecosystems worldwide are subjected to disturbances that reshape their physical and biological structure and modify biogeochemical processes, including carbon storage and cycling rates. Disturbances, including those from insect pests, pathogens, and extreme weather, span a continuum of severity and, accordingly, may have different effects on carbon cycling processes. Some ecosystems resist biogeochemical changes following disturbance, until a critical threshold of severity is exceeded. The ecosystem properties underlying such functional resistance, and signifying when a tipping point will occur, however, are almost entirely unknown. Here, we present observational and experimental results from forests in the Great Lakes region, showing ecosystem structure is closely coupled with carbon cycling responses to disturbance, with shifts in structure predicting thresholds of and, in some cases, increases in carbon storage. We find, among forests in the region, that carbon storage regularly exhibits a non-linear threshold response to increasing disturbance levels, but the severity at which a threshold is reached varies among disturbed forests. More biologically and structurally complex forest ecosystems sometimes exhibit greater functional resistance than simpler forests, and consequently may have a higher disturbance severity threshold. Counter to model predictions but consistent with some theoretical frameworks, empirical data show moderate levels of disturbance may increase ecosystem complexity to a point, thereby increasing rates of carbon storage. Disturbances that increase complexity therefore may stimulate carbon storage, while severe disturbances at or beyond thresholds may simplify structure, leading to carbon storage declines. We conclude that ecosystem structural attributes are closely coupled with biogeochemical thresholds across disturbance severity gradients, suggesting that improved predictions of disturbance-related changes in the carbon cycle require better representation of ecosystem structure in models.

Can beaches survive climate change?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick W.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is driving sea level rise, leading to numerous impacts on the coastal zone, such as increased coastal flooding, beach erosion, cliff failure, saltwater intrusion in aquifers, and groundwater inundation. Many beaches around the world are currently experiencing chronic erosion as a result of gradual, present-day rates of sea level rise (about 3 mm/year) and human-driven restrictions in sand supply (e.g., harbor dredging and river damming). Accelerated sea level rise threatens to worsen coastal erosion and challenge the very existence of natural beaches throughout the world. Understanding and predicting the rates of sea level rise and coastal erosion depends on integrating data on natural systems with computer simulations. Although many computer modeling approaches are available to simulate shoreline change, few are capable of making reliable long-term predictions needed for full adaption or to enhance resilience. Recent advancements have allowed convincing decadal to centennial-scale predictions of shoreline evolution. For example, along 500 km of the Southern California coast, a new model featuring data assimilation predicts that up to 67% of beaches may completely erode by 2100 without large-scale human interventions. In spite of recent advancements, coastal evolution models must continue to improve in their theoretical framework, quantification of accuracy and uncertainty, computational efficiency, predictive capability, and integration with observed data, in order to meet the scientific and engineering challenges produced by a changing climate.

Dynamic Relationships Between Parental Monitoring, Peer Risk Involvement and Sexual Risk Behavior Among Bahamian Mid-Adolescents

PubMed Central

Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Lunn, Sonja

2015-01-01

CONTEXT Considerable research has examined reciprocal relationships between parenting, peers and adolescent problem behavior; however, such studies have largely considered the influence of peers and parents separately. It is important to examine simultaneously the relationships between parental monitoring, peer risk involvement and adolescent sexual risk behavior, and whether increases in peer risk involvement and changes in parental monitoring longitudinally predict adolescent sexual risk behavior. METHODS Four waves of sexual behavior data were collected between 2008/2009 and 2011 from high school students aged 13–17 in the Bahamas. Structural equation and latent growth curve modeling were used to examine reciprocal relationships between parental monitoring, perceived peer risk involvement and adolescent sexual risk behavior. RESULTS For both male and female youth, greater perceived peer risk involvement predicted higher sexual risk behavior index scores, and greater parental monitoring predicted lower scores. Reciprocal relationships were found between parental monitoring and sexual risk behavior for males and between perceived peer risk involvement and sexual risk behavior for females. For males, greater sexual risk behavior predicted lower parental monitoring; for females, greater sexual risk behavior predicted higher perceived peer risk involvement. According to latent growth curve models, a higher initial level of parental monitoring predicted decreases in sexual risk behavior, whereas both a higher initial level and a higher growth rate of peer risk involvement predicted increases in sexual risk behavior. CONCLUSION Results highlight the important influence of peer risk involvement on youths’ sexual behavior and gender differences in reciprocal relationships between parental monitoring, peer influence and adolescent sexual risk behavior. PMID:26308261

Dynamic Relationships Between Parental Monitoring, Peer Risk Involvement and Sexual Risk Behavior Among Bahamian Mid-Adolescents.

PubMed

Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Lunn, Sonja

2015-06-01

Considerable research has examined reciprocal relationships between parenting, peers and adolescent problem behavior; however, such studies have largely considered the influence of peers and parents separately. It is important to examine simultaneously the relationships between parental monitoring, peer risk involvement and adolescent sexual risk behavior, and whether increases in peer risk involvement and changes in parental monitoring longitudinally predict adolescent sexual risk behavior. Four waves of sexual behavior data were collected between 2008/2009 and 2011 from high school students aged 13-17 in the Bahamas. Structural equation and latent growth curve modeling were used to examine reciprocal relationships between parental monitoring, perceived peer risk involvement and adolescent sexual risk behavior. For both male and female youth, greater perceived peer risk involvement predicted higher sexual risk behavior index scores, and greater parental monitoring predicted lower scores. Reciprocal relationships were found between parental monitoring and sexual risk behavior for males and between perceived peer risk involvement and sexual risk behavior for females. For males, greater sexual risk behavior predicted lower parental monitoring; for females, greater sexual risk behavior predicted higher perceived peer risk involvement. According to latent growth curve models, a higher initial level of parental monitoring predicted decreases in sexual risk behavior, whereas both a higher initial level and a higher growth rate of peer risk involvement predicted increases in sexual risk behavior. Results highlight the important influence of peer risk involvement on youths' sexual behavior and gender differences in reciprocal relationships between parental monitoring, peer influence and adolescent sexual risk behavior.

First Trimester Urine and Serum Metabolomics for Prediction of Preeclampsia and Gestational Hypertension: A Prospective Screening Study.

PubMed

Austdal, Marie; Tangerås, Line H; Skråstad, Ragnhild B; Salvesen, Kjell; Austgulen, Rigmor; Iversen, Ann-Charlotte; Bathen, Tone F

2015-09-08

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, including preeclampsia, are major contributors to maternal morbidity. The goal of this study was to evaluate the potential of metabolomics to predict preeclampsia and gestational hypertension from urine and serum samples in early pregnancy, and elucidate the metabolic changes related to the diseases. Metabolic profiles were obtained by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy of serum and urine samples from 599 women at medium to high risk of preeclampsia (nulliparous or previous preeclampsia/gestational hypertension). Preeclampsia developed in 26 (4.3%) and gestational hypertension in 21 (3.5%) women. Multivariate analyses of the metabolic profiles were performed to establish prediction models for the hypertensive disorders individually and combined. Urinary metabolomic profiles predicted preeclampsia and gestational hypertension at 51.3% and 40% sensitivity, respectively, at 10% false positive rate, with hippurate as the most important metabolite for the prediction. Serum metabolomic profiles predicted preeclampsia and gestational hypertension at 15% and 33% sensitivity, respectively, with increased lipid levels and an atherogenic lipid profile as most important for the prediction. Combining maternal characteristics with the urinary hippurate/creatinine level improved the prediction rates of preeclampsia in a logistic regression model. The study indicates a potential future role of clinical importance for metabolomic analysis of urine in prediction of preeclampsia.

Studies on free stream turbulence as related to gas turbine heat transfer. A review of authors' past work and future implications.

PubMed

Yavuzkurt, S; Iyer, G R

2001-05-01

A review of the past work done on free stream turbulence (FST) as applied to gas turbine heat transfer and its implications for future studies are presented. It is a comprehensive approach to the results of many individual studies in order to derive the general conclusions that could be inferred from all rather than discussing the results of each individual study. Three experimental and four modeling studies are reviewed. The first study was on prediction of heat transfer for film cooled gas turbine blades. An injection model was devised and used along with a 2-D low Reynolds number k-epsilon model of turbulence for the calculations. Reasonable predictions of heat transfer coefficients were obtained for turbulence intensity levels up to 7%. Following this modeling study a series of experimental studies were undertaken. The objective of these studies was to gain a fundamental understanding of mechanisms through which FST augments the surface heat transfer. Experiments were carried out in the boundary layer and in the free stream downstream of a gas turbine combustor simulator, which produced initial FST levels of 25.7% and large length scales (About 5-10 cm for a boundary layer 4-5 cm thick). This result showed that one possible mechanism through which FST caused an increase in heat transfer is by increasing the number of ejection events. In a number of modeling studies several well-known k-epsilon models were compared for their predictive capability of heat transfer and skin friction coefficients under moderate and high FST. Two data sets, one with moderate levels of FST (about 7%) and one with high levels of FST (about 25%) were used for this purpose. Although the models did fine in their predictions of cases with no FST (baseline cases) they failed one by one as FST levels were increased. Under high FST (25.7% initial intensity) predictions of Stanton number were between 35-100% in error compared to the measured values. Later a new additional production term indicating the interaction between the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and mean velocity gradients was introduced into the TKE equation. The predicted results of skin friction coefficient and Stanton number were excellent both in moderate and high FST cases. In fact these model also gave good predictions of TKE profiles whereas earlier unmodified models did not predict the correct TKE profiles even under moderate turbulence intensities. Although this new production term seems to achieve the purpose, it is the authors' belief that it is diffusion term of the TKE equation, which needs to be modified in order to fit the physical events in high FST boundary layer flows. The results of these studies are currently being used to come up with new diffusion model for the TKE equation.

The Effect of Single-Level Disc Degeneration on Dynamic Response of the Whole Lumbar Spine to Vertical Vibration.

PubMed

Guo, Li-Xin; Fan, Wei

2017-09-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of single-level disc degeneration on dynamic response of the whole lumbar spine to vertical whole body vibration that is typically present when driving vehicles. Ligamentous finite element models of the lumbar L1-S1 motion segment in different grades of degeneration (healthy, mild, and moderate) at the L4-L5 level were developed with consideration of changing disc height and material properties of the nucleus pulpous. All models were loaded with a compressive follower preload of 400 N and a sinusoidal vertical vibration load of ±40 N. After transient dynamic analyses, computational results for the 3 models in terms of disc bulge, von-Mises stress in annulus ground substance, and nucleus pressure were plotted as a function of time and compared. All the predicted results showed a cyclic response with time. At the degenerated L4-L5 disc level, as degeneration progressed, maximum value of the predicted response showed a decrease in disc bulge and von-Mises stress in annulus ground substance but a slight increase in nucleus pressure, and their vibration amplitudes were all decreased. At the adjacent levels of the degenerated disc, there was a slight decrease in maximum value and vibration amplitude of these predicted responses with the degeneration. The results indicated that single-level disc degeneration can alter vibration characteristics of the whole lumbar spine especially for the degenerated disc level, and increasing the degeneration did not deteriorate the effect of vertical vibration on the spine. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Food Supplementation Fails to Reveal a Trade-Off between Incubation and Self-Maintenance in Female House Wrens

PubMed Central

Lothery, Cassie J.; Thompson, Charles F.; Lawler, Megan L.; Sakaluk, Scott K.

2014-01-01

Incubating birds must allocate their time and energy between maintaining egg temperature and obtaining enough food to meet their own metabolic demands. We tested the hypothesis that female house wrens (Troglodytes aedon) face a trade-off between incubation and self-maintenance by providing females with supplemental food during incubation. We predicted that food supplementation would increase the amount of time females devoted to incubating their eggs, lower their baseline plasma corticosterone levels (a measure of chronic stress), and increase their body mass, haematocrit (a measure of anaemia), and reproductive success relative to control females. As predicted, food-supplemented females spent a greater proportion of time incubating their eggs than control females. Contrary to expectation, however, there was no evidence that food supplementation significantly influenced female baseline plasma corticosterone levels, body mass, haematocrit, or reproductive success. However, females with high levels of corticosterone at the beginning of incubation were more likely to abandon their nesting attempt after capture than females with low levels. Corticosterone significantly increased between the early incubation and early nestling stages of the breeding cycle in all females. These results suggest that although food supplementation results in a modest increase in incubation effort, it does not lead to significantly lower levels of chronic stress as reflected in lower baseline corticosterone levels. We conclude that female house wrens that begin the incubation period with low levels of plasma corticosterone can easily meet their own nutritional needs while incubating their eggs, and that any trade-off between incubation and self-feeding does not influence female reproductive success under the conditions at the time of our study. PMID:25184281

Results from the centers for disease control and prevention's predict the 2013-2014 Influenza Season Challenge.

PubMed

Biggerstaff, Matthew; Alper, David; Dredze, Mark; Fox, Spencer; Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai; Hickmann, Kyle S; Lewis, Bryan; Rosenfeld, Roni; Shaman, Jeffrey; Tsou, Ming-Hsiang; Velardi, Paola; Vespignani, Alessandro; Finelli, Lyn

2016-07-22

Early insights into the timing of the start, peak, and intensity of the influenza season could be useful in planning influenza prevention and control activities. To encourage development and innovation in influenza forecasting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) organized a challenge to predict the 2013-14 Unites States influenza season. Challenge contestants were asked to forecast the start, peak, and intensity of the 2013-2014 influenza season at the national level and at any or all Health and Human Services (HHS) region level(s). The challenge ran from December 1, 2013-March 27, 2014; contestants were required to submit 9 biweekly forecasts at the national level to be eligible. The selection of the winner was based on expert evaluation of the methodology used to make the prediction and the accuracy of the prediction as judged against the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet). Nine teams submitted 13 forecasts for all required milestones. The first forecast was due on December 2, 2013; 3/13 forecasts received correctly predicted the start of the influenza season within one week, 1/13 predicted the peak within 1 week, 3/13 predicted the peak ILINet percentage within 1 %, and 4/13 predicted the season duration within 1 week. For the prediction due on December 19, 2013, the number of forecasts that correctly forecasted the peak week increased to 2/13, the peak percentage to 6/13, and the duration of the season to 6/13. As the season progressed, the forecasts became more stable and were closer to the season milestones. Forecasting has become technically feasible, but further efforts are needed to improve forecast accuracy so that policy makers can reliably use these predictions. CDC and challenge contestants plan to build upon the methods developed during this contest to improve the accuracy of influenza forecasts.

Some coolness concerning global warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindzen, Richard S.

1990-01-01

The greenhouse effect hypothesis is discussed. The effects of increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere on global temperature changes are analyzed. The problems with models currently used to predict climatic changes are examined.

A Simplified Model to Predict the Effect of Increasing Atmospheric CO[subscript 2] on Carbonate Chemistry in the Ocean

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bozlee, Brian J.; Janebo, Maria; Jahn, Ginger

2008-01-01

The chemistry of dissolved inorganic carbon in seawater is reviewed and used to predict the potential effect of rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In agreement with more detailed treatments, we find that calcium carbonate (aragonite) may become unsaturated in cold surface seawater by the year 2100 C.E., resulting in the destruction…

First trimester PAPP-A levels correlate with sFlt-1 levels longitudinally in pregnant women with and without preeclampsia.

PubMed

Saxena, Aditi R; Seely, Ellen W; Rich-Edwards, Janet W; Wilkins-Haug, Louise E; Karumanchi, S Ananth; McElrath, Thomas F

2013-04-04

First trimester Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein A (PAPP-A) levels, routinely measured for aneuploidy screening, may predict development of preeclampsia. This study tests the hypothesis that first trimester PAPP-A levels correlate with soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) levels, an angiogenic marker associated with preeclampsia, throughout pregnancy. sFlt-1 levels were measured longitudinally in 427 women with singleton pregnancies in all three trimesters. First trimester PAPP-A and PAPP-A Multiples of Median (MOM) were measured. Student's T and Wilcoxon tests compared preeclamptic and normal pregnancies. A linear mixed model assessed the relationship between log PAPP-A and serial log sFlt-1 levels. PAPP-A and PAPP-A MOM levels were significantly lower in preeclamptic (n = 19), versus normal pregnancies (p = 0.02). Although mean third trimester sFlt-1 levels were significantly higher in preeclampsia (p = 0.002), first trimester sFlt-1 levels were lower in women who developed preeclampsia, compared with normal pregnancies (p = 0.03). PAPP-A levels correlated significantly with serial sFlt-1 levels. Importantly, low first trimester PAPP-A MOM predicted decreased odds of normal pregnancy (OR 0.2, p = 0.002). Low first trimester PAPP-A levels suggests increased future risk of preeclampsia and correlate with serial sFlt-1 levels throughout pregnancy. Furthermore, low first trimester PAPP-A status significantly predicted decreased odds of normal pregnancy.

The effect of maternal psychopathology on parent-child agreement of child anxiety symptoms: A hierarchical linear modeling approach.

PubMed

Affrunti, Nicholas W; Woodruff-Borden, Janet

2015-05-01

The current study examined the effects of maternal anxiety, worry, depression, child age and gender on mother and child reports of child anxiety using hierarchical linear modeling. Participants were 73 mother-child dyads with children between the ages of 7 and 10 years. Reports of child anxiety symptoms, including symptoms of specific disorders (e.g., social phobia) were obtained using concordant versions of the Screen for Anxiety and Related Emotional Disorders (SCARED). Children reported significantly higher levels of anxiety symptoms relative to their mothers. Maternal worry and depression predicted for significantly lower levels of maternal-reported child anxiety and increasing discrepant reports. Maternal anxiety predicted for higher levels of maternal-reported child anxiety and decreasing discrepant reports. Maternal depression was associated with increased child-reported child anxiety symptoms. No significant effect of child age or gender was observed. Findings may inform inconsistencies in previous studies on reporter discrepancies. Implications and future directions are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of a Simple Model to Predict Environmental Radionuclide Levels and Consequential Dose Rates on the South Welsh Coast, U.K.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halliwell, C. M.; McKay, W. A.

1994-02-01

The impact of liquid effluent discharges, from both existing nuclear power stations and from a possible future pressurized water reactor (PWR), on the levels of radioactivity in Welsh Severn coastal waters has been addressed in this study through the use of a simple box model. If a PWR was in operation at Hinkley Point, and assuming that the existing discharges into the estuary remained the same as in 1989, the levels of the most radiologically significant radionuclide, 137Cs, in seawater along the Welsh shoreline are predicted to increase by 7% (inner estuary), 7% (Welsh outer estuary) and 5% (inner channel) and in sediment by 0·3, 1·3 and 2% respectively. The radiation dose rate from 137Cs to members of the coastal population alone would show only a marginal increase due to these changes, and would remain less than 1% of the internationally recognized limit.

Humpback whale-generated ambient noise levels provide insight into singers' spatial densities.

PubMed

Seger, Kerri D; Thode, Aaron M; Urbán-R, Jorge; Martínez-Loustalot, Pamela; Jiménez-López, M Esther; López-Arzate, Diana

2016-09-01

Baleen whale vocal activity can be the dominant underwater ambient noise source for certain locations and seasons. Previous wind-driven ambient-noise formulations have been adjusted to model ambient noise levels generated by random distributions of singing humpback whales in ocean waveguides and have been combined to a single model. This theoretical model predicts that changes in ambient noise levels with respect to fractional changes in singer population (defined as the noise "sensitivity") are relatively unaffected by the source level distributions and song spectra of individual humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). However, the noise "sensitivity" does depend on frequency and on how the singers' spatial density changes with population size. The theoretical model was tested by comparing visual line transect surveys with bottom-mounted passive acoustic data collected during the 2013 and 2014 humpback whale breeding seasons off Los Cabos, Mexico. A generalized linear model (GLM) estimated the noise "sensitivity" across multiple frequency bands. Comparing the GLM estimates with the theoretical predictions suggests that humpback whales tend to maintain relatively constant spacing between one another while singing, but that individual singers either slightly increase their source levels or song duration, or cluster more tightly as the singing population increases.

The trophic fingerprint of marine fisheries.

PubMed

Branch, Trevor A; Watson, Reg; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Jennings, Simon; McGilliard, Carey R; Pablico, Grace T; Ricard, Daniel; Tracey, Sean R

2010-11-18

Biodiversity indicators provide a vital window on the state of the planet, guiding policy development and management. The most widely adopted marine indicator is mean trophic level (MTL) from catches, intended to detect shifts from high-trophic-level predators to low-trophic-level invertebrates and plankton-feeders. This indicator underpins reported trends in human impacts, declining when predators collapse ("fishing down marine food webs") and when low-trophic-level fisheries expand ("fishing through marine food webs"). The assumption is that catch MTL measures changes in ecosystem MTL and biodiversity. Here we combine model predictions with global assessments of MTL from catches, trawl surveys and fisheries stock assessments and find that catch MTL does not reliably predict changes in marine ecosystems. Instead, catch MTL trends often diverge from ecosystem MTL trends obtained from surveys and assessments. In contrast to previous findings of rapid declines in catch MTL, we observe recent increases in catch, survey and assessment MTL. However, catches from most trophic levels are rising, which can intensify fishery collapses even when MTL trends are stable or increasing. To detect fishing impacts on marine biodiversity, we recommend greater efforts to measure true abundance trends for marine species, especially those most vulnerable to fishing.

Interindividual differences in stress sensitivity: basal and stress-induced cortisol levels differentially predict neural vigilance processing under stress

PubMed Central

Klumpers, Floris; Everaerd, Daphne; Kooijman, Sabine C.; van Wingen, Guido A.; Fernández, Guillén

2016-01-01

Stress exposure is known to precipitate psychological disorders. However, large differences exist in how individuals respond to stressful situations. A major marker for stress sensitivity is hypothalamus–pituitary–adrenal (HPA)-axis function. Here, we studied how interindividual variance in both basal cortisol levels and stress-induced cortisol responses predicts differences in neural vigilance processing during stress exposure. Implementing a randomized, counterbalanced, crossover design, 120 healthy male participants were exposed to a stress-induction and control procedure, followed by an emotional perception task (viewing fearful and happy faces) during fMRI scanning. Stress sensitivity was assessed using physiological (salivary cortisol levels) and psychological measures (trait questionnaires). High stress-induced cortisol responses were associated with increased stress sensitivity as assessed by psychological questionnaires, a stronger stress-induced increase in medial temporal activity and greater differential amygdala responses to fearful as opposed to happy faces under control conditions. In contrast, high basal cortisol levels were related to relative stress resilience as reflected by higher extraversion scores, a lower stress-induced increase in amygdala activity and enhanced differential processing of fearful compared with happy faces under stress. These findings seem to reflect a critical role for HPA-axis signaling in stress coping; higher basal levels indicate stress resilience, whereas higher cortisol responsivity to stress might facilitate recovery in those individuals prone to react sensitively to stress. PMID:26668010

Gastric myoelectrical and autonomic cardiac reactivity to laboratory stressors

PubMed Central

GIANAROS, PETER J.; QUIGLEY, KAREN S.; MORDKOFF, J. TOBY; STERN, ROBERT M.

2010-01-01

We evaluated the effects of two laboratory stressors (speech preparation and isometric handgrip) on gastric myoelectrical and autonomic cardiac activity, and the extent to which autonomic responses to these stressors and somatization predict reports of motion sickness during exposure to a rotating optokinetic drum. Both stressors prompted a decrease in preejection period (PEP) and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), and an increase in a dysrhythmic pattern of gastric myoelectrical activity, termed gastric tachyarrhythmia. Stressor-induced decreases in RSA and higher somatization scores predicted increased reports of motion sickness during drum rotation. These results demonstrate that laboratory stressors concurrently affect gastric myoelectrical activity and autonomic control of the heart, and that stressor-induced decreases in RSA and higher levels of somatization predict motion sickness susceptibility. PMID:11446577

Correlation between continent area and elevation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.

2004-12-01

This presentation is motivated by the following questions: (1) What factors determine the mean elevation and thickness of an individual continent? (2) How to explain the positive correlation between the mean height and area of individual continent? (3) Given total continental crust volume, what determines the mean thickness (and hence total area) of all continents? For example, Mean thickness of all continents is about 41 km. Mean land elevation is 874 m, and mean elevation of all continents (including land areas and continental shelves and slopes to 1000 meters below sea level) is about 800 m. Could mean continental thickness have doubled and continental area have halved in the geologic past? I present a first-order model to address these issues assuming that continental mean height is the steady state height controlled by uplift and erosion. The model predicts that it takes longer time to erode a larger continent. Hence mean continental height at steady state increases as continental area increases. This prediction is consistent with the general trend between present-day continental elevation and area (except for Antarctica), and can fit the trend well. This is the first time the relation between continental area and mean elevation is quantitatively explained. The model is further applied to investigate variations of mean thickness of continental crust over the last 600 Myr over which the continental crust mass and seawater volume are assumed to be constant. Because a change in the number of continents leads to change in the area of continents, it is predicted that the mean continental thickness increases as the number of continents decreases. Nevertheless, the thickness variation is small, amounts to about 10% from one continent to six continents. Change in the number of continents leads to a sea level fluctuation of about 0.3 km, with the lowest sea level coinciding with times of supercontinents. This prediction is consistent with prominent lows in sea level curves at the times of Pangea and Rodinia. It is concluded that the number of continents played a major role in Phanerozoic sea level changes.

Increased iron availability resulting from increased CO2 enhances carbon and nitrogen metabolism in the economical marine red macroalga Pyropia haitanensis (Rhodophyta).

PubMed

Chen, Binbin; Zou, Dinghui; Yang, Yufeng

2017-04-01

Ocean acidification caused by rising CO 2 is predicted to increase the concentrations of dissolved species of Fe(II) and Fe(III), leading to the enhanced photosynthetic carbon sequestration in some algal species. In this study, the carbon and nitrogen metabolism in responses to increased iron availability under two CO 2 levels (390 μL L -1 and 1000 μL L -1 ), were investigated in the maricultivated macroalga Pyropia haitanensis (Rhodophyta). The results showed that, elevated CO 2 increased soluble carbonhydrate (SC) contents, resulting from enhanced photosynthesis and photosynthetic pigment synthesis in this algae, but declined its soluble protein (SP) contents, resulting in increased ratio of SC/SP. This enhanced photosynthesis performance and carbon accumulation was more significant under iron enrichment condition in seawater, with higher iron uptake rate at high CO 2 level. As a key essential biogenic element for algae, Fe-replete functionally contributed to P. haitanensis photosynthesis. Increased SC fundamentally provided carbon skeletons for nitrogen assimilation. The significant increase of carbon and nitrogen assimilation finally contributed to enhanced growth in this alga. This was also intuitively reflected by respiration that provided energy for cellular metabolism and algal growth. We propose that, in the predicted scenario of rising atmospheric CO 2 , P. haitanensis is capable to adjust its physiology by increasing its carbon and nitrogen metabolism to acclimate the acidified seawater, at the background of global climate change and simultaneously increased iron concentration due to decreased pH levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stress-mediated Allee effects can cause the sudden collapse of honey bee colonies.

PubMed

Booton, Ross D; Iwasa, Yoh; Marshall, James A R; Childs, Dylan Z

2017-05-07

The recent rapid decline in global honey bee populations could have significant implications for ecological systems, economics and food security. No single cause of honey bee collapse has yet to be identified, although pesticides, mites and other pathogens have all been shown to have a sublethal effect. We present a model of a functioning bee hive and introduce external stress to investigate the impact on the regulatory processes of recruitment to the forager class, social inhibition and the laying rate of the queen. The model predicts that constant density-dependent stress acting through an Allee effect on the hive can result in sudden catastrophic switches in dynamical behaviour and the eventual collapse of the hive. The model proposes that around a critical point the hive undergoes a saddle-node bifurcation, and that a small increase in model parameters can have irreversible consequences for the entire hive. We predict that increased stress levels can be counteracted by a higher laying rate of the queen, lower levels of forager recruitment or lower levels of natural mortality of foragers, and that increasing social inhibition can not maintain the colony under high levels of stress. We lay the theoretical foundation for sudden honey bee collapse in order to facilitate further experimental and theoretical consideration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of average daily gain prediction by level one of the 1996 National Research Council beef model and development of net energy adjusters.

PubMed

Block, H C; Klopfenstein, T J; Erickson, G E

2006-04-01

Two data sets were developed to evaluate and refine feed energy predictions with the beef National Research Council (NRC, 1996) model level 1. The first data set included pen means of group-fed cattle from 31 growing trials (201 observations) and 17 finishing trials (154 observations) representing over 7,700 animals fed outside in dirt lots. The second data set consisted of 15 studies with individually fed cattle (916 observations) fed in a barn. In each data set, actual ADG was compared with ADG predicted with the NRC model level 1, assuming thermoneutral environmental conditions. Next, the observed ADG (kg), TDN intake (kg/d), and TDN concentration (kg/kg of DM) were used to develop equations to adjust the level 1 predicted diet NEm and NEg (diet NE adjusters) to be applied to more accurately predict ADG. In both data sets, the NRC (1996) model level 1 inaccurately predicted ADG (P < 0.001 for slope = 1; intercept = 0 when observed ADG was regressed on predicted ADG). The following nonlinear relationships to adjust NE based on observed ADG, TDN intake, and TDN concentration were all significant (P < 0.001): NE adjuster = 0.7011 x 10(-0.8562 x ADG) + 0.8042, R2 = 0.325, s(y.x) = 0.136 kg; NE adjuster = 4.795 10(-0.3689 x TDN intake) + 0.8233, R2 x = 0.714, s(y.x) = 0.157 kg; and NE adjuster = 357 x 10(-5.449 x TDN concentration) + 0.8138, R2 = 0.754, s(y.x) = 0.127 kg. An NE adjuster < 1 indicates overprediction of ADG. The average NE adjustment required for the pen-fed finishing trials was 0.820, whereas the (P < 0.001) adjustment of 0.906 for individually fed cattle indicates that the pen-fed environment increased NE requirements. The use of these equations should improve ADG prediction by the NRC (1996) model level 1, although the equations reflect limitations of the data from which they were developed and are appropriate only over the range of the developmental data set. There is a need for independent evaluation of the ability of the equations to improve ADG prediction by the NRC (1996) model level 1.

False CAM alarms from radon fluctuations.

PubMed

Hayes, Robert

2003-11-01

The root cause of many false continuous air monitor (CAM) alarms is revealed for CAMs that use constant spectral shape assumptions in transuranic (TRU) alpha activity determination algorithms. This paper shows that when atmospheric radon levels continually decrease and bottom out at a minimum level, reduced false TRU count rates are not only expected but measured. Similarly, when the radon levels continually increase to a maximum level, elevated false TRU count rates were measured as predicted. The basis for expecting this dependence on changes in radon levels is discussed.

Computational Aeroheating Predictions for Mars Lander Configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edquist, Karl T.; Alter, Stephen J.

2003-01-01

The proposed Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission is intended to deliver a large rover to the Martian surface within 10 km of the target site. This paper presents computational fluid dynamics (CFD) predictions of forebody heating rates for two MSL entry configurations with fixed aerodynamic trim tabs. Results are compared to heating on a 70-deg sphere-cone reference geometry. All three heatshield geometries are designed to trim hypersonically at a 16 deg angle of attack in order to generate the lift-to-drag ratio (L/D) required for precision landing. Comparisons between CFD and tunnel data are generally in good agreement for each configuration, but the computations predict more flow separation and higher heating on a trim tab inclined 10 deg relative to the surface. CFD solutions at flight conditions were obtained using an 8-species Mars gas in chemical and thermal nonequilibrium. Laminar and Baldwin-Lomax solutions were used to estimate the effects of the trim tabs and turbulence on heating. A tab extending smoothly from the heatshield flank is not predicted to increase laminar or turbulent heating rates above the reference levels. Laminar heating on a tab deflected 10 deg from the conical heatshield is influenced by flow separation and is up to 35% above the baseline heating rate. The turbulent solution on the inclined tab configuration predicts attached flow and a 43% heating increase above the reference level.

Computational Aeroheating Predictions for Mars Lander Configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edquist, Karl T.; Alter, Stephen J.

2003-01-01

The proposed Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission is intended to deliver a large rover to the Martian surface within 10 km of the target site. This paper presents computational fluid dynamics (CFD) predictions of forebody heating rates for two MSL entry configurations with fixed aerodynamic trim tabs. Results are compared to heating on a 70-deg sphere-cone reference geometry. All three heatshield geometries are designed to trim hypersonically at a 16 deg angle of attack in order to generate the lift-to-drag ratio (LID) required for precision landing. Comparisons between CFD and tunnel data are generally in good agreement for each configuration, but the computations predict more flow separation and higher heating on a trim tab inclined 10 deg relative to the surface. CFD solutions at flight conditions were obtained using an 8-species Mars gas in chemical and thermal non-equilibrium. Laminar and Baldwin-Lomax solutions were used to estimate the effects of the trim tabs and turbulence on heating. A tab extending smoothly from the heatshield flank is not predicted to increase laminar or turbulent heating rates above the reference levels. Laminar heating on a tab deflected 10 deg from the conical heatshield is influenced by flow separation and is up to 35% above the baseline heating rate. The turbulent solution on the inclined tab configuration predicts attached flow and a 43% heating increase above the reference level.

Latino Parent Acculturation Stress: Longitudinal Effects on Family Functioning and Youth Emotional and Behavioral Health

PubMed Central

Lorenzo-Blanco, Elma I.; Meca, Alan; Unger, Jennifer B.; Romero, Andrea; Gonzales-Backen, Melinda; Piña-Watson, Brandy; Cano, Miguel A.; Zamboanga, Byron L.; Des Rosiers, Sabrina E.; Soto, Daniel W.; Villamar, Juan A.; Lizzi, Karina M.; Pattarroyo, Monica; Schwartz, Seth J.

2016-01-01

Latino parents can experience acculturation stressors, and according to the Family Stress Model, parent stress can influence youth mental health and substance use by negatively affecting family functioning. To understand how acculturation stressors come together and unfold over time to influence youth mental health and substance use outcomes, the current study investigated the trajectory of a latent parent acculturation stress factor and its influence on youth mental health and substance use via parent-and youth-reported family functioning. Data came from a six-wave, school-based survey with 302 recent (< 5 years) immigrant Latino parents (74% mothers, M age = 41.09 years) and their adolescents (47% female, M age = 14.51 years). Parents’ reports of discrimination, negative context of reception, and acculturative stress loaded onto a latent factor of acculturation stress at each of the first four time points. Earlier levels of and increases in parent acculturation stress predicted worse youth-reported family functioning. Additionally, earlier levels of parent acculturation stress predicted worse parent-reported family functioning and increases in parent acculturation stress predicted better parent-reported family functioning. While youth-reported positive family functioning predicted higher self-esteem, lower symptoms of depression, lower aggressive and rule-breaking behavior in youth, parent-reported family positive functioning predicted lower youth alcohol and cigarette use. Findings highlight the need for Latino youth preventive interventions to target parent acculturation stress and family functioning. PMID:27819441

Higher Dialysate Matrix Metalloproteinase-2 Levels Are Associated with Peritoneal Membrane Dysfunction

PubMed Central

Cho, Yeoungjee; Johnson, David W.; Vesey, David A.; Hawley, Carmel M.; Pascoe, Elaine M.; Clarke, Margaret; Topley, Nicholas

2016-01-01

♦ Background: Peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients develop progressive and cumulative peritoneal injury with longer time spent on PD. The present study aimed to a) describe the trend of peritoneal injury biomarkers, matrix metalloproteinase-2 (MMP-2) and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1 (TIMP-1), in incident PD patients, b) to explore the capacity of dialysate MMP-2 to predict peritoneal solute transport rate (PSTR) and peritonitis, and c) to evaluate the influence of neutral pH, low glucose degradation product (GDP) PD solution on these outcomes. ♦ Methods: The study included 178 participants from the balANZ trial who had at least 1 stored dialysate sample. Changes in PSTR and peritonitis were primary outcome measures, and the utility of MMP-2 in predicting these outcomes was analyzed using multilevel linear regression and multilevel Poisson regression, respectively. ♦ Results: Significant linear increases in dialysate MMP-2 and TIMP-1 concentrations were observed (p < 0.001), but neither was affected by the type of PD solutions received (MMP-2: p = 0.07; TIMP-1: p = 0.63). An increase in PSTR from baseline was associated with higher levels of MMP-2 (p = 0.02), and the use of standard solutions over longer PD duration (p = 0.001). The risk of peritonitis was independently predicted by higher dialysate MMP-2 levels (incidence rate ratio [IRR] per ng/mL 1.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.005 – 1.02, p = 0.002) and use of standard solutions (Biocompatible solution: IRR 0.45, 95% CI 0.24 – 0.85, p = 0.01). ♦ Conclusion: Dialysate MMP-2 and TIMP-1 concentrations increased with longer PD duration. Higher MMP-2 levels were associated with faster PSTR and future peritonitis risk. Administration of biocompatible solutions exerted no significant effect on dialysate levels of MMP-2 or TIMP-1, but did counteract the increase in PSTR and the risk of peritonitis associated with the use of standard PD solutions. This is the first longitudinal study to examine the clinical utility of MMP-2 as a predictor of patient-level outcomes. PMID:25292407

Short-arc measurement and fitting based on the bidirectional prediction of observed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fei, Zhigen; Xu, Xiaojie; Georgiadis, Anthimos

2016-02-01

To measure a short arc is a notoriously difficult problem. In this study, the bidirectional prediction method based on the Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) to the observed data distributed along a short arc is proposed to increase the corresponding arc length, and thus improve its fitting accuracy. Firstly, the rationality of regarding observed data as a time series is discussed in accordance with the definition of a time series. Secondly, the RBFNN is constructed to predict the observed data where the interpolation method is used for enlarging the size of training examples in order to improve the learning accuracy of the RBFNN’s parameters. Finally, in the numerical simulation section, we focus on simulating how the size of the training sample and noise level influence the learning error and prediction error of the built RBFNN. Typically, the observed data coming from a 5{}^\\circ short arc are used to evaluate the performance of the Hyper method known as the ‘unbiased fitting method of circle’ with a different noise level before and after prediction. A number of simulation experiments reveal that the fitting stability and accuracy of the Hyper method after prediction are far superior to the ones before prediction.

Frontal EEG Asymmetry and Temperament Across Infancy and Early Childhood: An Exploration of Stability and Bidirectional Relations

PubMed Central

Howarth, Grace Z.; Fettig, Nicole B.; Curby, Timothy W.; Bell, Martha Ann

2015-01-01

The stability of frontal electroencephalogram (EEG) asymmetry, temperamental activity level and fear, as well as bidirectional relations between asymmetry and temperament across the first four years of life were examined in a sample of 183 children. Children participated in annual lab visits through 48 months, providing EEG and maternal report of temperament. EEG asymmetry showed moderate stability between 10 and 24 months. Analyses revealed that more left asymmetry predicted later activity level across the first three years. Conversely, asymmetry did not predict fear. Rather, fear at 36 months predicted more right asymmetry at 48 months. Results highlight the need for additional longitudinal research of infants and children to increase understanding of bidirectional relations between EEG and temperament in typically developing populations. PMID:26659466

Effects of low-level sarin and cyclosarin exposure on white matter integrity in Gulf War Veterans.

PubMed

Chao, Linda L; Zhang, Yu; Buckley, Shannon

2015-05-01

We previously found evidence of reduced gray and white matter volume in Gulf War (GW) veterans with predicted low-level exposure to sarin (GB) and cyclosarin (GF). Because loss of white matter tissue integrity has been linked to both gray and white matter atrophy, the current study sought to test the hypothesis that GW veterans with predicted GB/GF exposure have evidence of disrupted white matter microstructural integrity. Measures of fractional anisotropy and directional (i.e., axial and radial) diffusivity were assessed from the 4T diffusion tensor images (DTI) of 59 GW veterans with predicted GB/GF exposure and 59 "matched" unexposed GW veterans (mean age: 48 ± 7 years). The DTI data were analyzed using regions of interest (ROI) analyses that accounted for age, sex, total brain gray and white matter volume, trauma exposure, posttraumatic stress disorder, current major depression, and chronic multisymptom illness status. There were no significant group differences in fractional anisotropy or radial diffusivity. However, there was increased axial diffusivity in GW veterans with predicted GB/GF exposure compared to matched, unexposed veterans throughout the brain, including the temporal stem, corona radiata, superior and inferior (hippocampal) cingulum, inferior and superior fronto-occipital fasciculus, internal and external capsule, and superficial cortical white matter blades. Post hoc analysis revealed significant correlations between higher fractional anisotropy and lower radial diffusivity with better neurobehavioral performance in unexposed GW veterans. In contrast, only increased axial diffusivity in posterior limb of the internal capsule was associated with better psychomotor function in GW veterans with predicted GB/GF exposure. The finding that increased axial diffusivity in a region of the brain that contains descending corticospinal fibers was associated with better psychomotor function and the lack of significant neurobehavioral deficits in veterans with predicted GB/GF exposure hint at the possibility that the widespread increases in axial diffusivity that we observed in GW veterans with predicted GB/GF exposure relative to unexposed controls may reflect white matter reorganization after brain injury (i.e., exposure to GB/GF). Published by Elsevier B.V.

Increased leptin levels in preeclampsia: associations with BMI, estrogen and SHBG levels.

PubMed

Acromite, Michael; Ziotopoulou, Mary; Orlova, Christine; Mantzoros, Christos

2004-01-01

Leptin is secreted mainly by the white adipose tissue but is also synthesized in several non-adipose tissue organs including the placenta. Serum leptin levels are increased in normal pregnancies and are higher in preeclamptic than normal pregnant women. There is, however, a lack of empirical evidence of an independent association of serum leptin levels and preeclamsia. We have studied cross-sectionally 18 3rd trimester preeclamptic women, 28 3rd trimester and 30 2nd trimester control women to confirm the reported increase of serum leptin in preeclampsia and to assess whether elevated leptin levels in preeclampsia increase the variance explained by body mass index (BMI), androgens, estrogens and/or sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG). Anthropometric, demographic and hormonal data were analyzed using linear and logistic regression models. Leptin is significantly increased in preeclampsia by univariate analysis, but use of multivariate analysis indicates that the elevated leptin levels are not associated with preeclampsia independently from BMI, estrogens and SHBG. This study confirms that leptin levels are higher in women with preeclampsia than in controls and demonstrates that serum leptin levels do not add to the prediction of preeclampsia after accounting for BMI, estrogen and SHBG levels of preeclamptic women.

Aggression Can be Contagious: Longitudinal Associations between Proactive Aggression and Reactive Aggression Among Young Twins

PubMed Central

Dickson, Daniel J.; Richmond, Ashley; Brendgen, Mara; Vitaro, Frank; Laursen, Brett; Dionne, Ginette; Boivin, Michel

2015-01-01

The present study examined sibling influence over reactive and proactive aggression in a sample of 452 same-sex twins (113 male dyads, 113 female dyads). Between and within siblings influence processes were examined as a function of relative levels of parental coercion and hostility to test the hypothesis that aggression contagion between twins occurs only among dyads who experience parental coerciveness. Teacher reports of reactive and proactive aggression were collected for each twin in kindergarten (M = 6.04 years; SD = 0.27) and in first grade (M = 7.08 years; SD = 0.27). Families were divided into relatively low, average, and relatively high parental coercion-hostility groups on the basis of maternal reports collected when the children were 5 years old. In families with relatively high levels of parental coercion-hostility, there was evidence of between-sibling influence, such that one twin’s reactive aggression at age 6 predicted increases in the other twin’s reactive aggression from ages 6 to 7, and one twin’s proactive aggression at age 6 predicted increases in the other twin’s proactive aggression from ages 6 to 7. There was also evidence of within-sibling influence such that a child’s level of reactive aggression at age 6 predicted increases in the same child’s proactive aggression at age 7, regardless of parental coercion-hostility. The findings provide new information about the etiology of reactive and proactive aggression and individual differences in their developmental interplay. PMID:25683448

Aggression can be contagious: Longitudinal associations between proactive aggression and reactive aggression among young twins.

PubMed

Dickson, Daniel J; Richmond, Ashley D; Brendgen, Mara; Vitaro, Frank; Laursen, Brett; Dionne, Ginette; Boivin, Michel

2015-01-01

The present study examined sibling influence over reactive and proactive aggression in a sample of 452 same-sex twins (113 male dyads, 113 female dyads). Between and within siblings influence processes were examined as a function of relative levels of parental coercion and hostility to test the hypothesis that aggression contagion between twins occurs only among dyads who experience parental coerciveness. Teacher reports of reactive and proactive aggression were collected for each twin in kindergarten (M = 6.04 years; SD = 0.27) and in first grade (M = 7.08 years; SD = 0.27). Families were divided into relatively low, average, and relatively high parental coercion-hostility groups on the basis of maternal reports collected when the children were 5 years old. In families with relatively high levels of parental coercion-hostility, there was evidence of between-sibling influence, such that one twin's reactive aggression at age 6 predicted increases in the other twin's reactive aggression from ages 6 to 7, and one twin's proactive aggression at age 6 predicted increases in the other twin's proactive aggression from ages 6 to 7. There was also evidence of within-sibling influence such that a child's level of reactive aggression at age 6 predicted increases in the same child's proactive aggression at age 7, regardless of parental coercion-hostility. The findings provide new information about the etiology of reactive and proactive aggression and individual differences in their developmental interplay. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Arsenic in Drinking Water and Lung Cancer Mortality in the United States: An Analysis Based on US Counties and 30 Years of Observation (1950–1979)

PubMed Central

Afari-Dwamena, Nana Ama; Li, Ji; Chen, Rusan; Feinleib, Manning; Lamm, Steven H.

2016-01-01

Background. To examine whether the US EPA (2010) lung cancer risk estimate derived from the high arsenic exposures (10–934 µg/L) in southwest Taiwan accurately predicts the US experience from low arsenic exposures (3–59 µg/L). Methods. Analyses have been limited to US counties solely dependent on underground sources for their drinking water supply with median arsenic levels of ≥3 µg/L. Results. Cancer risks (slopes) were found to be indistinguishable from zero for males and females. The addition of arsenic level did not significantly increase the explanatory power of the models. Stratified, or categorical, analysis yielded relative risks that hover about 1.00. The unit risk estimates were nonpositive and not significantly different from zero, and the maximum (95% UCL) unit risk estimates for lung cancer were lower than those in US EPA (2010). Conclusions. These data do not demonstrate an increased risk of lung cancer associated with median drinking water arsenic levels in the range of 3–59 µg/L. The upper-bound estimates of the risks are lower than the risks predicted from the SW Taiwan data and do not support those predictions. These results are consistent with a recent metaregression that indicated no increased lung cancer risk for arsenic exposures below 100–150 µg/L. PMID:27382373

Clinical evaluation of C-reactive protein and procalcitonin for the early detection of postoperative complications after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy.

PubMed

Frask, Agata; Orłowski, Michał; Dowgiałło-Wnukiewicz, Natalia; Lech, Paweł; Gajewski, Krzysztof; Michalik, Maciej

2017-06-01

Among the most common early complications after bariatric surgery are anastomosis leak and bleeding. In order to react quickly and perform accurate treatment before the clinical signs appear, early predictors should be found. In the study C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) levels were investigated. Characterized by a relatively short half-life, they can predict surgical complications. To develop and implement certain standards for early detection of complications. The study involved 319 adults who underwent laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) as a surgical intervention for morbid obesity at the Department of General Surgery of Ceynowa Hospital in Wejherowo. Every patient had CRP and PCT levels measured before the surgery and on the 1 st and 2 nd postoperative day (POD). Early postoperative complications occurred in 19 (5.96%) patients. Septic and non-septic complications occurred in 3 and 16 patients respectively. Among the patients with septic postoperative complications CRP level increased significantly on the 2 nd POD compared to the remainder (p = 0.0221). Among the patients with non-septic postoperative complications CRP level increased significantly on the 1 st and 2 nd POD compared to the remainder. Among the patients with septic and non-septic postoperative complications PCT level increased significantly on the 2 nd POD compared to the remainder. The CRP and PCT level are supposed to be relevant diagnostic markers to predict non-septic and septic complications after LSG.

Clinical evaluation of C-reactive protein and procalcitonin for the early detection of postoperative complications after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy

PubMed Central

Frask, Agata; Orłowski, Michał; Lech, Paweł; Gajewski, Krzysztof; Michalik, Maciej

2017-01-01

Introduction Among the most common early complications after bariatric surgery are anastomosis leak and bleeding. In order to react quickly and perform accurate treatment before the clinical signs appear, early predictors should be found. In the study C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) levels were investigated. Characterized by a relatively short half-life, they can predict surgical complications. Aim To develop and implement certain standards for early detection of complications. Material and methods The study involved 319 adults who underwent laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) as a surgical intervention for morbid obesity at the Department of General Surgery of Ceynowa Hospital in Wejherowo. Every patient had CRP and PCT levels measured before the surgery and on the 1st and 2nd postoperative day (POD). Results Early postoperative complications occurred in 19 (5.96%) patients. Septic and non-septic complications occurred in 3 and 16 patients respectively. Among the patients with septic postoperative complications CRP level increased significantly on the 2nd POD compared to the remainder (p = 0.0221). Among the patients with non-septic postoperative complications CRP level increased significantly on the 1st and 2nd POD compared to the remainder. Among the patients with septic and non-septic postoperative complications PCT level increased significantly on the 2nd POD compared to the remainder. Conclusions The CRP and PCT level are supposed to be relevant diagnostic markers to predict non-septic and septic complications after LSG. PMID:28694902

Evaluation and Analysis of Eco-Security in Environmentally Sensitive Areas Using an Emergy Ecological Footprint.

PubMed

Chen, Han-Shen

2017-01-30

In this paper, the overall ecological and environmental sustainability in the Cing-Jing region in Taiwan is examined. As land use and cover change has been found to be an important analysis method, an emergy ecological footprint model was applied and the eco-security assessed to ensure authorities maintain a balance between ecological preservation and tourism development. While the ecological environment in the Cing-Jing region from 2008 to 2014 was found to be within safe levels, all related indices had increased considerably. A Grey model was used to predict the 2015-2024 ecological carrying capacities, from which it was found that there is expected to be a large increase in per capita ecological footprints (EFs), meaning that in the future there is going to be a larger ecological deficit and a higher ecological pressure index (EFI), with the eco-security predicted to reach a Grade 2 intermediate level in 2022. As the Cing-Jing region is predicted to become ecologically unsustainable, local, regional, and national governments need to implement regulations to strictly control the land use in the Cing-Jing region. This study demonstrated that emergy EF (EEF) theory application can give objective guidance to decision-makers to ensure that recreational non-urban eco-security can be maintained at a safe level.

Evaluation and Analysis of Eco-Security in Environmentally Sensitive Areas Using an Emergy Ecological Footprint

PubMed Central

Chen, Han-Shen

2017-01-01

In this paper, the overall ecological and environmental sustainability in the Cing-Jing region in Taiwan is examined. As land use and cover change has been found to be an important analysis method, an emergy ecological footprint model was applied and the eco-security assessed to ensure authorities maintain a balance between ecological preservation and tourism development. While the ecological environment in the Cing-Jing region from 2008 to 2014 was found to be within safe levels, all related indices had increased considerably. A Grey model was used to predict the 2015–2024 ecological carrying capacities, from which it was found that there is expected to be a large increase in per capita ecological footprints (EFs), meaning that in the future there is going to be a larger ecological deficit and a higher ecological pressure index (EFI), with the eco-security predicted to reach a Grade 2 intermediate level in 2022. As the Cing-Jing region is predicted to become ecologically unsustainable, local, regional, and national governments need to implement regulations to strictly control the land use in the Cing-Jing region. This study demonstrated that emergy EF (EEF) theory application can give objective guidance to decision-makers to ensure that recreational non-urban eco-security can be maintained at a safe level. PMID:28146086

Subseasonal to Seasonal Predictions of U.S. West Coast High Water Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khouakhi, A.; Villarini, G.; Zhang, W.; Slater, L. J.

2017-12-01

Extreme sea levels pose a significant threat to coastal communities, ecosystems, and assets, as they are conducive to coastal flooding, coastal erosion and inland salt-water intrusion. As sea levels continue to rise, these sea level extremes - including occasional minor coastal flooding experienced during high tide (nuisance floods) - are of concern. Extreme sea levels are increasing at many locations around the globe and have been attributed largely to rising mean sea levels associated with intra-seasonal to interannual climate processes such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, intra-seasonal to seasonal probabilistic forecasts of high water levels are computed at the Toke Point tide gage station on the US west coast. We first identify the main climate drivers that are responsible for high water levels and examine their predictability using General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). These drivers are then used to develop a probabilistic framework for the seasonal forecasting of high water levels. We focus on the climate controls on the frequency of high water levels using the number of exceedances above the 99.5th percentile and above the nuisance flood level established by the National Weather Service. Our findings indicate good forecast skill at the shortest lead time, with the skill that decreases as we increase the lead time. In general, these models aptly capture the year-to-year variability in the observational records.

It's not how much you play, but how much you enjoy the game: the longitudinal associations between adolescents' self-esteem and the frequency versus enjoyment of involvement in sports.

PubMed

Adachi, Paul J C; Willoughby, Teena

2014-01-01

The frequency of involvement in sports often has been concurrently and longitudinally associated with higher self-esteem. The interpretation of this association consistently has been framed as involvement in sports leading to higher levels of self-esteem over time (i.e., socialization effect), although no studies have tested whether higher levels of self-esteem lead to increased involvement in sports over time (i.e., selection effect). Another important aspect of involvement in sports that may be related to self-esteem is the degree to which youth enjoy sports. However, this aspect has received much less attention. To address these gaps in the literature, we first examined the bidirectional effects between self-esteem and the frequency of involvement in sports with 1,492 adolescents (50.8 % female; 92.4 % Canadian-born) over 4 years. Higher levels of self-esteem predicted greater involvement in sports over time, but greater involvement in sports did not predict higher levels of self-esteem over time, offering support only for selection effects. We then tested the bidirectional effects between the enjoyment of sports and self-esteem and found evidence of both socialization and selection effects. Specifically, greater enjoyment of sports predicted higher self-esteem over time, and higher self-esteem predicted greater enjoyment of sports over time. These novel findings suggest that adolescents with higher self-esteem play sports more frequently and enjoy sports more than adolescents with lower self-esteem. In addition, the degree to which adolescents enjoy sports may be more important for increasing self-esteem than the frequency with which adolescents play sports.

Lack of pro-inflammatory cytokine mobilization predicts poor prognosis in patients with acute heart failure.

PubMed

Vistnes, M; Høiseth, A D; Røsjø, H; Nygård, S; Pettersen, E; Søyseth, V; Hurlen, P; Christensen, G; Omland, T

2013-03-01

The aim of this study was to gain insight in the inflammatory response in acute heart failure (AHF) by assessing (1) plasma cytokine profiles and (2) prognostic value of circulating cytokines in AHF patients. Plasma levels of 26 cytokines were quantified by multiplex protein arrays in 36 patients with congestive AHF, characterized by echocardiographic, radiologic, and clinical examinations on admission, during hospitalization and at discharge. Recurrent AHF leading to death or readmission constituted the combined end point, and all patients were followed for 120 days after discharge. Levels of 15 of the measured cytokines were higher in AHF than in healthy subjects (n=22) on admission. Low levels of MCP-1, IL-1β and a low IL-1β/IL-1ra ratio predicted fatal and non-fatal AHF within 120 days. Patients with low circulating levels of IL-1β had lower left ventricular ejection fraction and higher levels of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, while patients with low levels of MCP-1 had higher E/E' and inferior caval vein diameter, than patients with high levels. Immune activation, reflected in increased cytokine levels, is present in AHF patients. Interestingly, failure to increase secretion of IL-1β and MCP-1 during AHF is associated with poor outcome. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Smoking in movies, implicit associations of smoking with the self, and intentions to smoke.

PubMed

Dal Cin, Sonya; Gibson, Bryan; Zanna, Mark P; Shumate, Roberta; Fong, Geoffrey T

2007-07-01

We examined whether identifying with a film character who smokes increases implicit associations of the self with smoking. Undergraduate men were randomly assigned to view film clips in which the male protagonist either smoked or did not smoke. We measured subsequent levels of self-smoking associations using a reaction time task, as well as self-reported beliefs about smoking and smokers. Greater identification with the smoking protagonist predicted stronger implicit associations between the self and smoking (for both smokers and nonsmokers) and increased intention to smoke (among the smokers). Stronger implicit self-smoking associations uniquely predicted increases in smokers' intentions to smoke, over and above the effects of explicit beliefs about smoking. The results provide evidence that exposure to smoking in movies is causally related to changes in smoking-related thoughts, that identification with protagonists is an important feature of narrative influence, and that implicit measures may be useful in predicting deliberative behavior.

Ability of crime, demographic and business data to forecast areas of increased violence.

PubMed

Bowen, Daniel A; Mercer Kollar, Laura M; Wu, Daniel T; Fraser, David A; Flood, Charles E; Moore, Jasmine C; Mays, Elizabeth W; Sumner, Steven A

2018-05-24

Identifying geographic areas and time periods of increased violence is of considerable importance in prevention planning. This study compared the performance of multiple data sources to prospectively forecast areas of increased interpersonal violence. We used 2011-2014 data from a large metropolitan county on interpersonal violence (homicide, assault, rape and robbery) and forecasted violence at the level of census block-groups and over a one-month moving time window. Inputs to a Random Forest model included historical crime records from the police department, demographic data from the US Census Bureau, and administrative data on licensed businesses. Among 279 block groups, a model utilizing all data sources was found to prospectively improve the identification of the top 5% most violent block-group months (positive predictive value = 52.1%; negative predictive value = 97.5%; sensitivity = 43.4%; specificity = 98.2%). Predictive modelling with simple inputs can help communities more efficiently focus violence prevention resources geographically.

Longitudinal study of Stenotrophomonas maltophilia antibody levels and outcomes in cystic fibrosis patients.

PubMed

Wettlaufer, Jillian; Klingel, Michelle; Yau, Yvonne; Stanojevic, Sanja; Tullis, Elizabeth; Ratjen, Felix; Waters, Valerie

2017-01-01

Previous studies have shown an association between higher Stenotrophomonas maltophilia antibody levels and decreased lung function in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF). The purpose of this study was to assess the serologic response to S. maltophilia over time and to determine whether changes in antibody levels could predict clinical outcomes. Changes in S. maltophilia antibody levels in adult and pediatric patients with CF from 2008 to 2014 were assessed between groups of infection patterns. Regression models accounting for repeated measures were used to assess whether antibody levels could predict subsequent S. maltophilia microbiological status, and whether they are associated with lung function and subsequent pulmonary exacerbation. A total of 409 S. maltophilia antibody samples from 135 CF patients showed that antibody levels did not change significantly between study visits, regardless of infection group. Higher antibody levels were independently associated with future culture positivity (OR 1.62; 95% CI 1.09, 2.41; p=0.02). While higher antibody levels were not independently associated with decreases in FEV 1 % predicted, they were associated with an increased hazard ratio for subsequent pulmonary exacerbation (HR 1.3; 95% CI 1.1, 1.6; p<0.001). S. maltophilia antibody levels may be helpful to identify individuals at risk of exacerbation who may benefit from earlier antimicrobial treatment. Copyright © 2016 European Cystic Fibrosis Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Family dynamics across pregnant Latina adolescents' transition to parenthood.

PubMed

East, Patricia L; Chien, Nina C

2010-12-01

Growth curve models were conducted on assessments of family functioning at four time points from the third-trimester of pregnancy through the first year postpartum for 96 Latino families in which an adolescent daughter was pregnant. Results indicated significant family-level change following an adolescent's childbearing, though there were notable differences between family members in their perceptions of family functioning. Family conflict, as perceived by parenting teens, increased in the latter half of the first year after an initial decline, and family companionship (as rated by mothers and siblings) decreased. Parenting adolescents and siblings perceived significant increases in family cohesion, whereas mothers perceived a significant decline. Unplanned pregnancies, family financial hardship, and expected stress predicted unfavorable family functioning at 1 year. Contrary to expectations, adolescents' greater prenatal efforts to prepare for parenting predicted subsequent family conflict and declines in family cohesion (particularly as rated by mothers). Family members' acculturation level and attitudes of familism, gender roles, and the status attained by parenthood also had predictive effects. Implications of study findings for family adjustment following an adolescent's childbearing are discussed.

Developmental Relations between Perceived Social Support and Depressive Symptoms through Emerging Adulthood: Blood is Thicker than Water

PubMed Central

Pettit, Jeremy W.; Roberts, Robert E.; Lewinsohn, Peter M.; Seeley, John R.; Yaroslavsky, Ilya

2010-01-01

Longitudinal trajectories of depressive symptoms, perceived support from family, and perceived support from friends were examined among 816 emerging adults (480 women; 59%). In the context of a larger longitudinal investigation on the predictors and course of depression, data were drawn from eight self-report questionnaire assessments that roughly spanned the third decade of life. An age-based scaling approach was used to model trajectories of depressive symptoms and perceived social support between the ages of 21 and 30. Associative models of the relations between depressive symptoms and perceived social support from family and friends were tested. Results indicated that depressive symptoms decreased and perceived social support increased during the study period. Associative models suggested that among women, higher initial levels of perceived support from family predicted slower decreases in depressive symptoms (b = .34, p < .01). Among men, higher initial levels of depressive symptoms predicted slower increases in perceived family support (b = −.23, p < .05). Cross-domain predictive effects were not observed for perceived support from friends and depressive symptoms. Implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:21355652

Competition between relatives and the evolution of dispersal in a parasitoid wasp

PubMed Central

INNOCENT, T. M.; ABE, J.; WEST, S. A.; REECE, S. E.

2014-01-01

Evolutionary theory predicts that levels of dispersal vary in response to the extent of local competition for resources and the relatedness between potential competitors. Here, we test these predictions by making use of a female dispersal dimorphism in the parasitoid wasp Melittobia australica. We show that there are two distinct female morphs, which differ in morphology, pattern of egg production, and dispersal behaviour. As predicted by theory, we found that greater competition for resources resulted in increased production of dispersing females. In contrast, we did not find support for the prediction that high relatedness between competitors increases the production of dispersing females in Melittobia. Finally, we exploit the close links between the evolutionary processes leading to selection for dispersal and for biased sex ratios to examine whether the pattern of dispersal can help distinguish between competing hypotheses for the lack of sex ratio adjustment in Melittobia. PMID:20492084

Incorporating Infrastructure and Vegetation Effects on Sea Level Rise Predictions in Low-Gradient Coastal Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, J. F.; Sandi Rojas, S.; Trivisonno, F.; Saco, P. M.; Riccardi, G.

2015-12-01

At the regional and global scales, coastal management and planning for future sea level rise scenarios is typically supported by modelling tools that predict the expected inundation extent. These tools rely on a number of simplifying assumptions that, in some cases, may result in important overestimation or underestimation of the inundation extent. One of such cases is coastal wetlands, where vegetation strongly affects both the magnitude and the timing of inundation. Many coastal wetlands display other forms of flow restrictions due to, for example, infrastructure or drainage works, which also alters the inundation patterns. In this contribution we explore the effects of flow restrictions on inundation patterns under sea level rise conditions in coastal wetlands. We use a dynamic wetland evolution model that not only incorporates the effects of flow restrictions due to culverts, bridges and weirs as well as vegetation, but also considers that vegetation changes as a consequence of increasing inundation. We apply our model to a coastal wetland in Australia and compare predictions of our model to predictions using conventional approaches. We found that some restrictions accentuate detrimental effects of sea level rise while others moderate them. We also found that some management strategies based on flow redistribution that provide short term solution may result more damaging in the long term if sea level rise is considered.

Understanding multiple levels of norms about teen pregnancy and their relationships to teens' sexual behaviors.

PubMed

Mollborn, Stefanie; Domingue, Benjamin W; Boardman, Jason D

2014-06-01

Researchers seeking to understand teen sexual behaviors often turn to age norms, but they are difficult to measure quantitatively. Previous work has usually inferred norms from behavioral patterns or measured group-level norms at the individual level, ignoring multiple reference groups. Capitalizing on the multilevel design of the Add Health survey, we measure teen pregnancy norms perceived by teenagers, as well as average norms at the school and peer network levels. School norms predict boys' perceived norms, while peer network norms predict girls' perceived norms. Peer network and individually perceived norms against teen pregnancy independently and negatively predict teens' likelihood of sexual intercourse. Perceived norms against pregnancy predict increased likelihood of contraception among sexually experienced girls, but sexually experienced boys' contraceptive behavior is more complicated: When both the boy and his peers or school have stronger norms against teen pregnancy he is more likely to contracept, and in the absence of school or peer norms against pregnancy, boys who are embarrassed are less likely to contracept. We conclude that: (1) patterns of behavior cannot adequately operationalize teen pregnancy norms, (2) norms are not simply linked to behaviors through individual perceptions, and (3) norms at different levels can operate independently of each other, interactively, or in opposition. This evidence creates space for conceptualizations of agency, conflict, and change that can lead to progress in understanding age norms and sexual behaviors.

Understanding multiple levels of norms about teen pregnancy and their relationships to teens’ sexual behaviors

PubMed Central

Mollborn, Stefanie; Domingue, Benjamin W.; Boardman, Jason D.

2014-01-01

Researchers seeking to understand teen sexual behaviors often turn to age norms, but they are difficult to measure quantitatively. Previous work has usually inferred norms from behavioral patterns or measured group-level norms at the individual level, ignoring multiple reference groups. Capitalizing on the multilevel design of the Add Health survey, we measure teen pregnancy norms perceived by teenagers, as well as average norms at the school and peer network levels. School norms predict boys’ perceived norms, while peer network norms predict girls’ perceived norms. Peer network and individually perceived norms against teen pregnancy independently and negatively predict teens’ likelihood of sexual intercourse. Perceived norms against pregnancy predict increased likelihood of contraception among sexually experienced girls, but sexually experienced boys’ contraceptive behavior is more complicated: When both the boy and his peers or school have stronger norms against teen pregnancy he is more likely to contracept, and in the absence of school or peer norms against pregnancy, boys who are embarrassed are less likely to contracept. We conclude that: (1) patterns of behavior cannot adequately operationalize teen pregnancy norms, (2) norms are not simply linked to behaviors through individual perceptions, and (3) norms at different levels can operate independently of each other, interactively, or in opposition. This evidence creates space for conceptualizations of agency, conflict, and change that can lead to progress in understanding age norms and sexual behaviors. PMID:25104920

Higher levels of salivary alpha-amylase predict failure of cessation efforts in male smokers.

PubMed

Dušková, M; Simůnková, K; Hill, M; Hruškovičová, H; Hoskovcová, P; Králíková, E; Stárka, L

2010-01-01

The ability to predict the success or failure of smoking cessation efforts will be useful for clinical practice. Stress response is regulated by two primary neuroendocrine systems. Salivary cortisol has been used as a marker for the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenocortical axis and salivary alpha-amylase as a marker for the sympathetic adrenomedullary system. We studied 62 chronic smokers (34 women and 28 men with an average age of 45.2+/-12.9 years). The levels of salivary cortisol and salivary alpha-amylase were measured during the period of active smoking, and 6 weeks and 24 weeks after quitting. We analyzed the men separately from the women. The men who were unsuccessful in cessation showed significantly higher levels of salivary alpha-amylase over the entire course of the cessation attempt. Before stopping smoking, salivary cortisol levels were higher among the men who were unsuccessful in smoking cessation. After quitting, there were no differences between this group and the men who were successful in cessation. In women we found no differences between groups of successful and unsuccessful ex-smokers during cessation. In conclusions, increased levels of salivary alpha-amylase before and during smoking cessation may predict failure to quit in men. On the other hand, no advantage was found in predicting the failure to quit in women. The results of our study support previously described gender differences in smoking cessation.

Serum folic acid levels are associated with the presence and severity of liver steatosis in Chinese adults.

PubMed

Xia, Ming-Feng; Bian, Hua; Zhu, Xiao-Peng; Yan, Hong-Mei; Chang, Xin-Xia; Zhang, Lin-Shan; Lin, Huan-Dong; Hu, Xi-Qi; Gao, Xin

2017-06-28

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common and strong risk factor for cardiovascular disease and hepatocellular carcinoma. The rapid acceleration of the increase in NAFLD prevalence has exceeded the trends observed for obesity, and has been driven by multiple factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the correlation between the serum levels of folic acid, the endogenous source of methyl groups for DNA methylation, and NAFLD in Chinese adults. The correlations between the serum folic acid levels and NAFLD were investigated in two independent cohorts of 70 subjects who underwent a liver biopsy and 130 subjects with varying liver fat contents, as measured using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy ( 1 H-MRS). Independent correlations between serum folic acid levels and liver steatosis grades were detected using a multivariate ordinal regression analysis. The diagnostic performances of serum folic acid levels alone and in combination with existing NAFLD prediction scores were compared with those of traditional NAFLD prediction parameters using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses. Serum folic acid concentrations were inversely correlated with liver histological steatosis grades (ρ = -0.371, P < 0.001) and the 1 H-MRS-measured liver fat content (r = -0.199, P = 0.038). According to the multivariate ordinal regression analysis, serum folic acid levels were inversely correlated with liver steatosis grades (OR 0.739 [0.594-0.918], P = 0.006) independent of age, gender, BMI, components of metabolic syndrome and the serum TC, LDL-c and HOMA-IR levels. The AUROC of serum folic acid for the diagnosis of NAFLD was 0.75 (0.65-0.83), and the addition of serum folic acid to NAFLD prediction scores significantly improved the diagnostic prediction of NAFLD (AUROC = 0.88 [0.81-0.94]). Low serum folic acid levels were identified as an independent risk factor for NAFLD in the Chinese population. The addition of the serum folic acid levels to the current existing NAFLD prediction scores significantly improved the prediction of NAFLD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Individual and social network predictors of physical bullying: a longitudinal study of Taiwanese early adolescents.

PubMed

Wei, Hsi-Sheng; Lee, Wonjae

2014-01-01

This study followed 125 7th-grade students in Taiwan for the entire school year and analyzed the individual and social network factors predicting their involvement in physical bullying over 5 waves of data. Using self-reports of bullying experiences, 20 classroom-level networks of bullying and friendship were constructed for 4 classrooms and 5 temporal points, from which 4 individual-level network measures were calculated. They included bully and victim centrality, popularity, and embeddedness in friendship networks. A series of mixed models for repeated measures were constructed to predict students' bully and victim centrality in bullying network at time t + 1. Compared to girls, boys were more likely to be both the bullies and victims. Lower self-esteem and higher family economic status contributed to victim centrality. Having parents married and living together predicted lower bully centrality. Higher educational level of parents predicted lower victim and bully centrality. Regarding the social network factors, students' bully centrality at t positively predicted their bully centrality at t + 1, whereas victim centrality predicted their subsequent victim centrality. Interaction effects between friendship network and bullying network were observed. Embeddedness in friendship network reduced victim centrality at t + 1 except for those students with low victim centrality at t. For those with high victim centrality at t, popularity increased their risk of physical victimization over time. Implications for research and practice are discussed.

Learning Strategies and Motivational Factors Predicting Information Literacy Self-Efficacy of E-Learners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kilic-Cakmak, Ebru

2010-01-01

Rapid increase in information sources in different formats, developments in technology and need for lifelong learning have drawn increased attention to needs for information literacy. Although information literacy is significant for students of all educational levels, it has become even more significant for e-learners. Therefore, this study…

Quality Market: Design and Field Study of Prediction Market for Software Quality Control

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krishnamurthy, Janaki

2010-01-01

Given the increasing competition in the software industry and the critical consequences of software errors, it has become important for companies to achieve high levels of software quality. While cost reduction and timeliness of projects continue to be important measures, software companies are placing increasing attention on identifying the user…

Genetically Influenced Change in Sensation Seeking Drives the Rise of Delinquent Behavior during Adolescence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harden, K. Paige; Quinn, Patrick D.; Tucker-Drob, Elliot M.

2012-01-01

Sensation seeking is associated with an increased propensity for delinquency, and emerging research on personality change suggests that mean levels of sensation seeking increase substantially from childhood to adolescence. The current study tested whether individual differences in the rate of change of sensation seeking predicted within-person…

‘Nasty neighbours’ rather than ‘dear enemies’ in a social carnivore

PubMed Central

Müller, Corsin A; Manser, Marta B

2007-01-01

Territorial animals typically respond less aggressively to neighbours than to strangers. This ‘dear enemy effect’ has been explained by differing familiarity or by different threat levels posed by neighbours and strangers. In most species, both the familiarity and the threat-level hypotheses predict a stronger response to strangers than to neighbours. In contrast, the threat-level hypothesis predicts a stronger response to neighbours than to strangers in species with intense competition between neighbours and with residents outnumbering strangers, as commonly found in social mammals such as the banded mongoose (Mungos mungo). The familiarity hypothesis predicts reduced aggression towards neighbours also in these species. We exposed free-living banded mongoose groups to translocated scent marks of neighbouring groups and strangers. Groups vocalized more and inspected more samples in response to olfactory cues of the neighbours than to the strangers. Our results support the threat-level hypothesis and contradict the familiarity hypothesis. We suggest that increased aggression towards neighbours is more common in social species with intense competition between neighbours, as opposed to reduced aggression towards neighbours typical for most solitary species. PMID:17251103

Does affective organizational commitment and experience of meaning at work predict risk of disability pensioning? An analysis of register-based outcomes using pooled data on 40,554 observations in four occupational groups.

PubMed

Clausen, Thomas; Burr, Hermann; Borg, Vilhelm

2014-06-01

The aim of this study is to investigate whether experience of meaning at work (MAW) and affective organizational commitment (AOC) predict risk of disability pensioning in four occupational groups. Survey data from 40,554 individuals were fitted to a national register (DREAM) containing information on payments of disability pension. Using multi-adjusted Cox-regression, observations were followed in the DREAM-register to assess risk of disability pensioning. Low levels of MAW significantly increased risk of disability pensioning during follow-up referencing high levels of MAW. Respondents with medium levels of AOC had a significantly reduced risk of disability pensioning, when compared to respondents with high levels of AOC. Furthermore, results indicate an interaction effect between AOC and MAW in predicting risk of disability pension. AOC and MAW are significantly associated with risk of disability pensioning. Promoting MAW and managing AOC in contemporary workplaces may contribute towards reducing risk of disability pensioning. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The course of early disinhibited social engagement among post-institutionalized adopted children

PubMed Central

Lawler, Jamie M.; Koss, Kalsea J.; Doyle, Colleen M.; Gunnar, Megan R.

2016-01-01

Background Approximately 20% of post-institutionalized (PI) children exhibit disinhibited social engagement (DSE) or the propensity to approach and engage strangers. There is little longitudinal research examining changes in DSE after adoption, or methods of identifying children with persistent behaviors. Methods DSE was assessed observationally four times during the first two years post-adoption in PI children 16-36 months at adoption (n=68) relative to same-age non-adopted children (n=52). At age 5, a validated interview determined which PI children met criteria for Disinhibited Social Engagement Disorder (DSED). Results DSE trajectories initially increased and then stabilized. PIs had higher DSE levels initially and a steeper increase rate than NAs. When separated into physical and non-physical DSE components, group differences arose in initial physical DSE and the rate of change of non-physical DSE. DSE rate of increase predicted DSED diagnosis, as did longer institutional duration and poorer institutional care. Conclusions The rate of increase in DSE post-adoption, rather than the level observed at adoption, is predictive of disordered social engagement by age 5 years. PMID:27460336

Predictive factors for cosmetic surgery: a hospital-based investigation.

PubMed

Li, Jun; Li, Qian; Zhou, Bei; Gao, Yanli; Ma, Jiehua; Li, Jingyun

2016-01-01

Cosmetic surgery is becoming increasingly popular in China. However, reports on the predictive factors for cosmetic surgery in Chinese individuals are scarce in the literature. We retrospectively analyzed 4550 cosmetic surgeries performed from January 2010 to December 2014 at a single center in China. Data collection included patient demographics and type of cosmetic surgery. Predictive factors were age, sex, marital status, occupational status, educational degree, and having had children. Predictive factors for the three major cosmetic surgeries were determined using a logistic regression analysis. Patients aged 19-34 years accounted for the most popular surgical procedures (76.9 %). The most commonly requested procedures were eye surgery, Botox injection, and nevus removal. Logistic regression analysis showed that higher education level (college, P = 0.01, OR 1.21) was predictive for eye surgery. Age (19-34 years, P = 0.00, OR 33.39; 35-50, P = 0.00, OR 31.34; ≥51, P = 0.00, OR 16.42), female sex (P = 0.00, OR 9.19), employment (service occupations, P = 0.00, OR 2.31; non-service occupations, P = 0.00, OR 1.76), and higher education level (college, P = 0.00, OR 1.39) were independent predictive factors for Botox injection. Married status (P = 0.00, OR 1.57), employment (non-service occupations, P = 0.00, OR 1.50), higher education level (masters, P = 0.00, OR 6.61), and having children (P = 0.00, OR 1.45) were independent predictive factors for nevus removal. The principal three cosmetic surgeries (eye surgery, Botox injection, and nevus removal) were associated with multiple variables. Patients employed in non-service occupations were more inclined to undergo Botox injection and nevus removal. Cohort study, Level III.

Earliest land plants created modern levels of atmospheric oxygen

PubMed Central

Lenton, Timothy M.; Dahl, Tais W.; Daines, Stuart J.; Mills, Benjamin J. W.; Ozaki, Kazumi; Saltzman, Matthew R.; Porada, Philipp

2016-01-01

The progressive oxygenation of the Earth’s atmosphere was pivotal to the evolution of life, but the puzzle of when and how atmospheric oxygen (O2) first approached modern levels (∼21%) remains unresolved. Redox proxy data indicate the deep oceans were oxygenated during 435–392 Ma, and the appearance of fossil charcoal indicates O2 >15–17% by 420–400 Ma. However, existing models have failed to predict oxygenation at this time. Here we show that the earliest plants, which colonized the land surface from ∼470 Ma onward, were responsible for this mid-Paleozoic oxygenation event, through greatly increasing global organic carbon burial—the net long-term source of O2. We use a trait-based ecophysiological model to predict that cryptogamic vegetation cover could have achieved ∼30% of today’s global terrestrial net primary productivity by ∼445 Ma. Data from modern bryophytes suggests this plentiful early plant material had a much higher molar C:P ratio (∼2,000) than marine biomass (∼100), such that a given weathering flux of phosphorus could support more organic carbon burial. Furthermore, recent experiments suggest that early plants selectively increased the flux of phosphorus (relative to alkalinity) weathered from rocks. Combining these effects in a model of long-term biogeochemical cycling, we reproduce a sustained +2‰ increase in the carbonate carbon isotope (δ13C) record by ∼445 Ma, and predict a corresponding rise in O2 to present levels by 420–400 Ma, consistent with geochemical data. This oxygen rise represents a permanent shift in regulatory regime to one where fire-mediated negative feedbacks stabilize high O2 levels. PMID:27528678

Earliest land plants created modern levels of atmospheric oxygen.

PubMed

Lenton, Timothy M; Dahl, Tais W; Daines, Stuart J; Mills, Benjamin J W; Ozaki, Kazumi; Saltzman, Matthew R; Porada, Philipp

2016-08-30

The progressive oxygenation of the Earth's atmosphere was pivotal to the evolution of life, but the puzzle of when and how atmospheric oxygen (O2) first approached modern levels (∼21%) remains unresolved. Redox proxy data indicate the deep oceans were oxygenated during 435-392 Ma, and the appearance of fossil charcoal indicates O2 >15-17% by 420-400 Ma. However, existing models have failed to predict oxygenation at this time. Here we show that the earliest plants, which colonized the land surface from ∼470 Ma onward, were responsible for this mid-Paleozoic oxygenation event, through greatly increasing global organic carbon burial-the net long-term source of O2 We use a trait-based ecophysiological model to predict that cryptogamic vegetation cover could have achieved ∼30% of today's global terrestrial net primary productivity by ∼445 Ma. Data from modern bryophytes suggests this plentiful early plant material had a much higher molar C:P ratio (∼2,000) than marine biomass (∼100), such that a given weathering flux of phosphorus could support more organic carbon burial. Furthermore, recent experiments suggest that early plants selectively increased the flux of phosphorus (relative to alkalinity) weathered from rocks. Combining these effects in a model of long-term biogeochemical cycling, we reproduce a sustained +2‰ increase in the carbonate carbon isotope (δ(13)C) record by ∼445 Ma, and predict a corresponding rise in O2 to present levels by 420-400 Ma, consistent with geochemical data. This oxygen rise represents a permanent shift in regulatory regime to one where fire-mediated negative feedbacks stabilize high O2 levels.

Feeling powerless: Locus of control as a potential target for supportive care interventions to increase quality of life and decrease anxiety in ovarian cancer patients.

PubMed

Brown, Alaina J; Sun, Charlotte C; Urbauer, Diana L; Bodurka, Diane C; Thaker, Premal H; Ramondetta, Lois M

2015-08-01

To evaluate if an individual's locus of control (LOC) predicts various quality of life (QOL) and mental well-being measures. To identify targets that might enhance the overall spiritual well-being and QOL of ovarian cancer patients. Multi-site analysis of women with newly diagnosed stages II-IV ovarian, primary peritoneal or fallopian tube cancer. Patients completed the following surveys: Locus of Control Scale (LOC), Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Ovarian (FACT-O), Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Spiritual (FACIT-Sp), Edmonton Symptom Assessment score (ESAS), Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale (HADS), Templer's Death Anxiety Scale (DAS), and Herth Hope Index (HHI). Regression models were created to examine the effect of LOC upon QOL, symptoms, and other measures of mental well-being. These models adjusted for the effect of site of care, race, and partnership status as potential confounders. This study enrolled 104 patients from three separate treatment facilities. After adjusting for site, race and partnership status, higher levels of external LOC predicted decreased QOL (FACT-O) (p<0.05). Higher levels of external LOC also correlated with increased death anxiety and general anxiety (p≤0.05). Additionally, higher levels of external LOC predicted decreased hope (HHI) (p≤0.01). Ovarian cancer patients with a high external LOC may be at risk for decreased QOL at the time of their cancer diagnosis. They may also experience higher levels of anxiety and decreased feelings of hope. Identification of these women and interventions designed to increase a woman's sense of control over her situation may improve QOL and overall mental well-being. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Cooperation Improves Success during Intergroup Competition: An Analysis Using Data from Professional Soccer Tournaments.

PubMed

David, Gwendolyn Kim; Wilson, Robbie Stuart

2015-01-01

The benefit mutually gained by cooperators is considered the ultimate explanation for why cooperation evolved among non-relatives. During intergroup competition, cooperative behaviours within groups that provide a competitive edge over their opposition should be favoured by selection, particularly in lethal human warfare. Aside from forming larger groups, three other ways that individuals within a group can cooperate to improve their chances of gaining a mutual benefit are: (i) greater networking, (ii) contributing more effort, and (iii) dividing labour. Greater cooperation is expected to increase the chances of gaining a group benefit by improving proficiency in the tasks critical to success-yet empirical tests of this prediction using real-world cases are absent. In this study, we used data derived from 12 international and professional soccer competitions to test the predictions that: 1) greater levels of cooperative behaviour are associated with winning group contests, 2) the three forms of cooperation differ in relative importance for winning matches, 3) competition and tournament-type affect the levels of cooperation and shooting proficiency in matches, and 4) greater levels of networking behaviour are associated with increased proficiency in the most critical task linked with winning success in soccer-shooting at goal. Winners were best predicted by higher shooting proficiency, followed by greater frequencies of networking interactions within a team but unexpectedly, fewer networking partners and less division of labour. Although significant variation was detected across competitions and tournament-types, greater levels of networking behaviour were consistently associated with increased proficiency in shooting at goal, which in turn was linked with winning success. This study empirically supports the idea that intergroup competition can favour cooperation among non-relatives.

Earliest land plants created modern levels of atmospheric oxygen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenton, Timothy M.; Dahl, Tais W.; Daines, Stuart J.; Mills, Benjamin J. W.; Ozaki, Kazumi; Saltzman, Matthew R.; Porada, Philipp

2016-08-01

The progressive oxygenation of the Earth’s atmosphere was pivotal to the evolution of life, but the puzzle of when and how atmospheric oxygen (O2) first approached modern levels (˜21%) remains unresolved. Redox proxy data indicate the deep oceans were oxygenated during 435-392 Ma, and the appearance of fossil charcoal indicates O2 >15-17% by 420-400 Ma. However, existing models have failed to predict oxygenation at this time. Here we show that the earliest plants, which colonized the land surface from ˜470 Ma onward, were responsible for this mid-Paleozoic oxygenation event, through greatly increasing global organic carbon burial—the net long-term source of O2. We use a trait-based ecophysiological model to predict that cryptogamic vegetation cover could have achieved ˜30% of today’s global terrestrial net primary productivity by ˜445 Ma. Data from modern bryophytes suggests this plentiful early plant material had a much higher molar C:P ratio (˜2,000) than marine biomass (˜100), such that a given weathering flux of phosphorus could support more organic carbon burial. Furthermore, recent experiments suggest that early plants selectively increased the flux of phosphorus (relative to alkalinity) weathered from rocks. Combining these effects in a model of long-term biogeochemical cycling, we reproduce a sustained +2‰ increase in the carbonate carbon isotope (δ13C) record by ˜445 Ma, and predict a corresponding rise in O2 to present levels by 420-400 Ma, consistent with geochemical data. This oxygen rise represents a permanent shift in regulatory regime to one where fire-mediated negative feedbacks stabilize high O2 levels.

Predicting Coastal Flood Severity using Random Forest Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadler, J. M.; Goodall, J. L.; Morsy, M. M.; Spencer, K.

2017-12-01

Coastal floods have become more common recently and are predicted to further increase in frequency and severity due to sea level rise. Predicting floods in coastal cities can be difficult due to the number of environmental and geographic factors which can influence flooding events. Built stormwater infrastructure and irregular urban landscapes add further complexity. This paper demonstrates the use of machine learning algorithms in predicting street flood occurrence in an urban coastal setting. The model is trained and evaluated using data from Norfolk, Virginia USA from September 2010 - October 2016. Rainfall, tide levels, water table levels, and wind conditions are used as input variables. Street flooding reports made by city workers after named and unnamed storm events, ranging from 1-159 reports per event, are the model output. Results show that Random Forest provides predictive power in estimating the number of flood occurrences given a set of environmental conditions with an out-of-bag root mean squared error of 4.3 flood reports and a mean absolute error of 0.82 flood reports. The Random Forest algorithm performed much better than Poisson regression. From the Random Forest model, total daily rainfall was by far the most important factor in flood occurrence prediction, followed by daily low tide and daily higher high tide. The model demonstrated here could be used to predict flood severity based on forecast rainfall and tide conditions and could be further enhanced using more complete street flooding data for model training.

The Effect of Locus of Control, Self-Efficacy, and Gender-Role Identity on Academic Performance Outcomes of Female College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sierra, Jade Simone

2013-01-01

This quantitative study investigated the predictive worthiness of the predictor variable indices--locus of control, self-efficacy, and gender identity--to ascertain if elevated levels of the predictors influence academic performance outcomes (individually as well as interactionally). The study theorized that students with increased levels of locus…

Attitude of Israeli mothers with vaccination of their daughters against human papilloma virus.

PubMed

Ben Natan, Merav; Aharon, Osnat; Palickshvili, Sharon; Gurman, Vicky

2011-02-01

The purpose of the study is to examine whether the model based on the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) succeeds in predicting mothers' intention to vaccinate their daughters against the human papilloma virus infection. Questionnaires were distributed among convenience sample of 103 mothers of daughters 18 years and younger. Approximately 65% of mothers intend to vaccinate their daughters. Behavioral beliefs, normative beliefs, and level of knowledge had a significant positive effect on mothers' intention to vaccinate their daughters. High levels of religiosity were found to negatively affect mothers' intention to vaccinate their daughters. The TRA combined with level of knowledge and level of religiosity succeeds in predicting mothers' behavioral intentions regarding vaccinating daughters. This indicates the significance of nurses' roles in imparting information and increasing awareness among mothers. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Estimates of ground level TSP, SO sub 2 and HCI for a municipal waste incinerator to be located at Tynes Bay - Bermuda

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kent Simmons, J.A.; Knap, A.H.

1991-04-01

The computer model Industrial Source Complex Short Term (ISCST) was used to study the stack emissions from a refuse incinerator proposed for the inland of Bermuda. The model predicts that the highest ground level pollutant concentrations will occur near Prospect, 800 m to 1,000 m due south of the stack. The authors installed a portable laboratory and instruments at Prospect to begin making air quality baseline measurements. By comparing the model's estimates of the incinerator contribution to the background levels measured at the site they predicted that stack emissions would not cause an increase in TSP or SO{sub 2}. Themore » incinerator will be a significant source of HCI to Bermuda air with ambient levels approaching air quality guidelines.« less

A model of litter size distribution in cattle.

PubMed

Bennett, G L; Echternkamp, S E; Gregory, K E

1998-07-01

Genetic increases in twinning of cattle could result in increased frequency of triplet or higher-order births. There are no estimates of the incidence of triplets in populations with genetic levels of twinning over 40% because these populations either have not existed or have not been documented. A model of the distribution of litter size in cattle is proposed. Empirical estimates of ovulation rate distribution in sheep were combined with biological hypotheses about the fate of embryos in cattle. Two phases of embryo loss were hypothesized. The first phase is considered to be preimplantation. Losses in this phase occur independently (i.e., the loss of one embryo does not affect the loss of the remaining embryos). The second phase occurs after implantation. The loss of one embryo in this stage results in the loss of all embryos. Fewer than 5% triplet births are predicted when 50% of births are twins and triplets. Above 60% multiple births, increased triplets accounted for most of the increase in litter size. Predictions were compared with data from 5,142 calvings by 14 groups of heifers and cows with average litter sizes ranging from 1.14 to 1.36 calves. The predicted number of triplets was not significantly different (chi2 = 16.85, df = 14) from the observed number. The model also predicted differences in conception rates. A cow ovulating two ova was predicted to have the highest conception rate in a single breeding cycle. As mean ovulation rate increased, predicted conception to one breeding cycle increased. Conception to two or three breeding cycles decreased as mean ovulation increased because late-pregnancy failures increased. An alternative model of the fate of ova in cattle based on embryo and uterine competency predicts very similar proportions of singles, twins, and triplets but different conception rates. The proposed model of litter size distribution in cattle accurately predicts the proportion of triplets found in cattle with genetically high twinning rates. This model can be used in projecting efficiency changes resulting from genetically increasing the twinning rate in cattle.

Dynamic filtering improves attentional state prediction with fNIRS

PubMed Central

Harrivel, Angela R.; Weissman, Daniel H.; Noll, Douglas C.; Huppert, Theodore; Peltier, Scott J.

2016-01-01

Brain activity can predict a person’s level of engagement in an attentional task. However, estimates of brain activity are often confounded by measurement artifacts and systemic physiological noise. The optimal method for filtering this noise – thereby increasing such state prediction accuracy – remains unclear. To investigate this, we asked study participants to perform an attentional task while we monitored their brain activity with functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). We observed higher state prediction accuracy when noise in the fNIRS hemoglobin [Hb] signals was filtered with a non-stationary (adaptive) model as compared to static regression (84% ± 6% versus 72% ± 15%). PMID:27231602

On the effect of acoustic coupling on random and harmonic plate vibrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frendi, A.; Robinson, J. H.

1993-01-01

The effect of acoustic coupling on random and harmonic plate vibrations is studied using two numerical models. In the coupled model, the plate response is obtained by integration of the nonlinear plate equation coupled with the nonlinear Euler equations for the surrounding acoustic fluid. In the uncoupled model, the nonlinear plate equation with an equivalent linear viscous damping term is integrated to obtain the response of the plate subject to the same excitation field. For a low-level, narrow-band excitation, the two models predict the same plate response spectra. As the excitation level is increased, the response power spectrum predicted by the uncoupled model becomes broader and more shifted towards the high frequencies than that obtained by the coupled model. In addition, the difference in response between the coupled and uncoupled models at high frequencies becomes larger. When a high intensity harmonic excitation is used, causing a nonlinear plate response, both models predict the same frequency content of the response. However, the level of the harmonics and subharmonics are higher for the uncoupled model. Comparisons to earlier experimental and numerical results show that acoustic coupling has a significant effect on the plate response at high excitation levels. Its absence in previous models may explain the discrepancy between predicted and measured responses.

Prospectively Predicting Dietary Restraint: The Role of Interpersonal Self-Efficacy, Weight/Shape Self-Efficacy, and Interpersonal Stress

PubMed Central

Cain, A.S.; Bardone-Cone, A.M.; Abramson, L.Y.; Vohs, K.D.; Joiner, T.E.

2009-01-01

Objective This study investigated how the precursors of interpersonal self-efficacy and weight/shape self-efficacy would interact in the face of interpersonal stress to prospectively predict dietary restraint. Three models were explored, each with a different type of interpersonal stress: stress from same sex friendships, opposite sex friendships, or romantic relationships. Method At Time 1 (T1), participants (N = 406) reported on their typical levels of interpersonal self-efficacy and weight/shape self-efficacy, and recent (past 28 days) dietary restraint. At Time 2 (T2), 11 weeks after T1, participants reported on their recent (past 28 days) levels of dietary restraint at that time. Between T1 and T2, participants completed inventories weekly on the previous week’s interpersonal stressors. Results Consistent with prediction, low interpersonal self-efficacy and high weight/shape self-efficacy combined with high interpersonal stress (whether from same sex friendships, opposite sex friendships, or romantic relationships) to predict the highest levels of T2 dietary restraint after controlling for T1 levels. Conclusion These results further link the interpersonal domain with dietary restraint and elucidate characteristics of women particularly apt to increase dietary restraint in response to interpersonal stress. PMID:19718670

Human impacts and changes in the coastal waters of south China.

PubMed

Wang, Linlin; Li, Qiang; Bi, Hongsheng; Mao, Xian-Zhong

2016-08-15

Human impact on the environment remains at the center of the debate on global environmental change. Using the Hong Kong-Shenzhen corridor in south China as an example, we present evidence that rapid urbanization and economic development in coastal areas were the dominant factors causing rapid changes in coastal waters. From 1990 to 2012, coastal seawater temperature increased ~0.060°C per year, sea level rose 4.4mm per year and pH decreased from 8.2 to 7.7, much faster than global averages. In the same period, there were exponential increases in the local population, gross domestic product and land fill area. Empirical analyses suggest that the large increase in the population affected local temperature, and economic development had a major impact on local pH. Results also show that pH and temperature were significantly correlated with local sea level rise, but pH had more predictive power, suggesting it could be considered a predictor for changes in local sea level. We conclude that human activities could significantly exacerbate local environmental changes which should be considered in predictive models and future development plans in coastal areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multilevel landscape utilization of the Siberian flying squirrel: Scale effects on species habitat use.

PubMed

Remm, Jaanus; Hanski, Ilpo K; Tuominen, Sakari; Selonen, Vesa

2017-10-01

Animals use and select habitat at multiple hierarchical levels and at different spatial scales within each level. Still, there is little knowledge on the scale effects at different spatial levels of species occupancy patterns. The objective of this study was to examine nonlinear effects and optimal-scale landscape characteristics that affect occupancy of the Siberian flying squirrel, Pteromys volans , in South- and Mid-Finland. We used presence-absence data ( n  = 10,032 plots of 9 ha) and novel approach to separate the effects on site-, landscape-, and regional-level occupancy patterns. Our main results were: landscape variables predicted the placement of population patches at least twice as well as they predicted the occupancy of particular sites; the clear optimal value of preferred habitat cover for species landscape-level abundance is a surprisingly low value (10% within a 4 km buffer); landscape metrics exert different effects on species occupancy and abundance in high versus low population density regions of our study area. We conclude that knowledge of regional variation in landscape utilization will be essential for successful conservation of the species. The results also support the view that large-scale landscape variables have high predictive power in explaining species abundance. Our study demonstrates the complex response of species occurrence at different levels of population configuration on landscape structure. The study also highlights the need for data in large spatial scale to increase the precision of biodiversity mapping and prediction of future trends.

Mild cognitive impairment as a risk factor for Parkinson's disease dementia.

PubMed

Hoogland, Jeroen; Boel, Judith A; de Bie, Rob M A; Geskus, Ronald B; Schmand, Ben A; Dalrymple-Alford, John C; Marras, Connie; Adler, Charles H; Goldman, Jennifer G; Tröster, Alexander I; Burn, David J; Litvan, Irene; Geurtsen, Gert J

2017-07-01

The International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society criteria for mild cognitive impairment in PD were recently formulated. The aim of this international study was to evaluate the predictive validity of the comprehensive (level II) version of these criteria by assessment of their contribution to the hazard of PD dementia. Individual patient data were selected from four separate studies on cognition in PD that provided information on demographics, motor examination, depression, neuropsychological examination suitable for application of level II criteria, and longitudinal follow-up for conversion to dementia. Survival analysis evaluated the predictive value of level II criteria for cognitive decline toward dementia as expressed by the relative hazard of dementia. A total of 467 patients were included. The analyses showed a clear contribution of impairment according to level II mild cognitive impairment criteria, age, and severity of PD motor symptoms to the hazard of dementia. There was a trend of increasing hazard of dementia with declining neuropsychological performance. This is the first large international study evaluating the predictive validity of level II mild cognitive impairment criteria for PD. The results showed a clear and unique contribution of classification according to level II criteria to the hazard of PD dementia. This finding supports their predictive validity and shows that they contribute important new information on the hazard of dementia, beyond known demographic and PD-specific factors of influence. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

The medial temporal lobe—conduit of parallel connectivity: a model for attention, memory, and perception

PubMed Central

Mozaffari, Brian

2014-01-01

Based on the notion that the brain is equipped with a hierarchical organization, which embodies environmental contingencies across many time scales, this paper suggests that the medial temporal lobe (MTL)—located deep in the hierarchy—serves as a bridge connecting supra- to infra—MTL levels. Bridging the upper and lower regions of the hierarchy provides a parallel architecture that optimizes information flow between upper and lower regions to aid attention, encoding, and processing of quick complex visual phenomenon. Bypassing intermediate hierarchy levels, information conveyed through the MTL “bridge” allows upper levels to make educated predictions about the prevailing context and accordingly select lower representations to increase the efficiency of predictive coding throughout the hierarchy. This selection or activation/deactivation is associated with endogenous attention. In the event that these “bridge” predictions are inaccurate, this architecture enables the rapid encoding of novel contingencies. A review of hierarchical models in relation to memory is provided along with a new theory, Medial-temporal-lobe Conduit for Parallel Connectivity (MCPC). In this scheme, consolidation is considered as a secondary process, occurring after a MTL-bridged connection, which eventually allows upper and lower levels to access each other directly. With repeated reactivations, as contingencies become consolidated, less MTL activity is predicted. Finally, MTL bridging may aid processing transient but structured perceptual events, by allowing communication between upper and lower levels without calling on intermediate levels of representation. PMID:25426036

Motor-Evoked Pain Increases Force Variability in Chronic Jaw Pain.

PubMed

Wang, Wei-En; Roy, Arnab; Misra, Gaurav; Archer, Derek B; Ribeiro-Dasilva, Margarete C; Fillingim, Roger B; Coombes, Stephen A

2018-06-01

Musculoskeletal pain changes how people move. Although experimental pain is associated with increases in the variability of motor output, it is not clear whether motor-evoked pain in clinical conditions is also associated with increases in variability. In the current study, we measured jaw force production during a visually guided force paradigm in which individuals with chronic jaw pain and control subjects produced force at 2% of their maximum voluntary contraction (low target force level) and at 15% of their maximum voluntary contraction (high target force level). State measures of pain were collected before and after each trial. Trait measures of pain intensity and pain interference, self-report measures of jaw function, and measures of depression, anxiety, and fatigue were also collected. We showed that the chronic jaw pain group exhibited greater force variability compared with controls irrespective of the force level, whereas the accuracy of force production did not differ between groups. Furthermore, predictors of force variability shifted from trait measures of pain intensity and pain interference at the low force level to state measures of pain intensity at the high force level. Our observations show that motor-evoked jaw pain is associated with increases in force variability that are predicted by a combination of trait measures and state measures of pain intensity and pain interference. Chronic jaw pain is characterized by increases in variability during force production, which can be predicted by pain intensity and pain interference. This report could help clinicians better understand the long-term consequences of chronic jaw pain on the motor system. Copyright © 2018 The American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictors of science success: The impact of motivation and learning strategies on college chemistry performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obrentz, Shari B.

As the number of college students studying science continues to grow, it is important to identify variables that predict their success. The literature indicates that motivation and learning strategy use facilitate science success. Research findings show these variables can change throughout a semester and differ by performance level, gender and ethnicity. However, significant predictors of performance vary by research study and by group. The current study looks beyond the traditional predictors of grade point averages, SAT scores and completion of advanced placement (AP) chemistry to consider a comprehensive set of variables not previously investigated within the same study. Research questions address the predictive ability of motivation constructs and learning strategies for success in introductory college chemistry, how these variables change throughout a semester, and how they differ by performance level, gender and ethnicity. Participants were 413 introductory college chemistry students at a highly selective university in the southeast. Participants completed the Chemistry Motivation Questionnaire (CMQ) and Learning Strategies section of the Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (MSLQ) three times during the semester. Self-efficacy, effort regulation, assessment anxiety and previous achievement were significant predictors of chemistry course success. Levels of motivation changed with significant decreases in self-efficacy and increases in personal relevance and assessment anxiety. Learning strategy use changed with significant increases in elaboration, critical thinking, metacognitive self-regulation skills and peer learning, and significant decreases in time and study management and effort regulation. High course performers reported the highest levels of motivation and learning strategy use. Females reported lower intrinsic motivation, personal relevance, self-efficacy and critical thinking, and higher assessment anxiety, rehearsal and organization. Self-efficacy predicted performance for males and females, while self-determination, help-seeking and time and study environment also predicted female success. Few differences in these variables were found between ethnicity groups. Self-efficacy positively predicted performance for Asians and Whites, and metacognitive self-regulation skills negatively predicted success for Other students. The results have implications for college science instructors who are encouraged to collect and utilize data on students' motivation and learning strategy use, promote both in science classes, and design interventions for specific students who need more support.

Global Perceived Stress Predicts Cognitive Change among Older Adults

PubMed Central

Munoz, Elizabeth; Sliwinski, Martin J.; Scott, Stacey B.; Hofer, Scott

2015-01-01

Research on stress and cognitive aging has primarily focused on examining the effects of biological and psychosocial indicators of stress with little attention provided to examining the association between perceived stress and cognitive aging. We examined the longitudinal association between global perceived stress (GPS) and cognitive change among 116 older adults (Mage = 80, SD = 6.40, range: 67–96) in a repeated measurement burst design. Bursts of six daily cognitive assessments were repeated every six months over a two-year period with self-reported GPS assessed at the start of every burst. Using a double-exponential learning model, two parameters were estimated: 1) asymptotic level (peak performance), and 2) asymptotic change (the rate in which peak performance changed across bursts). We hypothesized that greater GPS would predict slowed performance in tasks of attention, working memory, and speed of processing and that increases in GPS across time would predict cognitive slowing. Results from latent growth curve analyses were consistent with our first hypothesis and indicated that level of GPS predicted cognitive slowing across time. Changes in GPS did not predict cognitive slowing. This study extends previous findings by demonstrating a prospective association between level of GPS and cognitive slowing across a two-year period highlighting the role of psychological stress as a risk factor for poor cognitive function. PMID:26121285

Toward predicting tensile strength of pharmaceutical tablets by ultrasound measurement in continuous manufacturing.

PubMed

Razavi, Sonia M; Callegari, Gerardo; Drazer, German; Cuitiño, Alberto M

2016-06-30

An ultrasound measurement system was employed as a non-destructive method to evaluate its reliability in predicting the tensile strength of tablets and investigate the benefits of incorporating it in a continuous line, manufacturing solid dosage forms. Tablets containing lactose, acetaminophen, and magnesium stearate were manufactured continuously and in batches. The effect of two processing parameters, compaction force and level of shear strain were examined. Young's modulus and tensile strength of tablets were obtained by ultrasound and diametrical mechanical testing, respectively. It was found that as the blend was exposed to increasing levels of shear strain, the speed of sound in the tablets decreased and the tablets became both softer and mechanically weaker. Moreover, the results indicate that two separate tablet material properties (e.g., relative density and Young's modulus) are necessary in order to predict tensile strength. A strategy for hardness prediction is proposed that uses the existing models for Young's modulus and tensile strength of porous materials. Ultrasound testing was found to be very sensitive in differentiating tablets with similar formulation but produced under different processing conditions (e.g., different level of shear strain), thus, providing a fast, and non-destructive method for hardness prediction that could be incorporated to a continuous manufacturing process. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The prediction of self-care behaviors in end-stage renal disease patients using Leventhal's Self-Regulatory Model.

PubMed

O'Connor, Susan M; Jardine, Alan G; Millar, Keith

2008-08-01

To assess the utility of Leventhal's Self-Regulatory Model (SRM) to predict self-care behavior with regard to dietary, medication, and fluid regimes in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients. In a prospective study, ESRD patients treated via hospital-based haemodialysis (N=73) were screened for cognitive deficits and completed questionnaires that enquired about illness perceptions, coping strategies, knowledge of kidney disease, and psychological distress at Time 1. Physiological proxy measures of self-care behaviors regarding diet (serum potassium levels), fluid intake (mean and standard deviation of interdialytic weight gain), and medication (serum phosphate levels) regimes were collected 3 weeks later at Time 2. Illness representations (emotional and timeline perceptions) predicted self-care behaviors with regard to diet and medication. Emotion-focused coping strategies predicted higher levels of variation in adherence to fluid restrictions. Younger males were less likely to adhere to the fluid restrictions. The SRM has predictive utility. Psychological interventions should focus on alleviating disease-specific distress and challenging erroneous timeline perceptions in order to increase adherence to dietary and medication regimes in ESRD patients. A more specific measure of coping for ESRD is required to clarify the role of coping strategies in this population. Younger, male patients should be targeted for extra support with fluid restrictions.

Machine-Learning-Based Electronic Triage More Accurately Differentiates Patients With Respect to Clinical Outcomes Compared With the Emergency Severity Index.

PubMed

Levin, Scott; Toerper, Matthew; Hamrock, Eric; Hinson, Jeremiah S; Barnes, Sean; Gardner, Heather; Dugas, Andrea; Linton, Bob; Kirsch, Tom; Kelen, Gabor

2018-05-01

Standards for emergency department (ED) triage in the United States rely heavily on subjective assessment and are limited in their ability to risk-stratify patients. This study seeks to evaluate an electronic triage system (e-triage) based on machine learning that predicts likelihood of acute outcomes enabling improved patient differentiation. A multisite, retrospective, cross-sectional study of 172,726 ED visits from urban and community EDs was conducted. E-triage is composed of a random forest model applied to triage data (vital signs, chief complaint, and active medical history) that predicts the need for critical care, an emergency procedure, and inpatient hospitalization in parallel and translates risk to triage level designations. Predicted outcomes and secondary outcomes of elevated troponin and lactate levels were evaluated and compared with the Emergency Severity Index (ESI). E-triage predictions had an area under the curve ranging from 0.73 to 0.92 and demonstrated equivalent or improved identification of clinical patient outcomes compared with ESI at both EDs. E-triage provided rationale for risk-based differentiation of the more than 65% of ED visits triaged to ESI level 3. Matching the ESI patient distribution for comparisons, e-triage identified more than 10% (14,326 patients) of ESI level 3 patients requiring up triage who had substantially increased risk of critical care or emergency procedure (1.7% ESI level 3 versus 6.2% up triaged) and hospitalization (18.9% versus 45.4%) across EDs. E-triage more accurately classifies ESI level 3 patients and highlights opportunities to use predictive analytics to support triage decisionmaking. Further prospective validation is needed. Copyright © 2017 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive Value of Procalcitonin for Infection and Survival in Adult Cardiogenic Shock Patients Treated with Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation

PubMed Central

Kim, Do Wan; Cho, Hwa Jin; Kim, Gwan Sic; Song, Sang Yun; Na, Kook Joo; Oh, Sang Gi

2018-01-01

Procalcitonin (PCT) is a predictive marker for the occurrence of bacterial infection and the decision to terminate antibiotic treatment in critically ill patients. An unusual increase in PCT, regardless of infection, has been observed during extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support. We evaluated trends and the predictive value of PCT levels in adult cardiogenic shock during treatment with ECMO. We reviewed the clinical records of 38 adult cardiogenic shock patients undergoing veno-arterial ECMO support between January 2014 and December 2016. The exclusion criteria were age <18 years, pre-ECMO infection, and less than 48 hours of support. The mean patient age was 56.7±14.7 years and 12 (31.6%) patients were female. The mean duration of ECMO support was 9.0±7.6 days. The rates of successful ECMO weaning and survival to discharge were 55.3% (n=21) and 52.6% (n=20), respectively. There were 17 nosocomial infections in 16 (42.1%) patients. Peak PCT levels (mean 25.6±9.4 ng/mL) were reached within 48 hours after initiation of ECMO support and decreased to ≤5 ng/mL within one week. The change in PCT levels was not useful in predicting the occurrence of new nosocomial infections during the ECMO run. However, a PCT level >10 ng/mL during the first week of ECMO support was significantly associated with mortality (p<0.01). The change in PCT level was not useful in predicting new infection during ECMO support. However, higher PCT levels within the first week of the ECMO run are associated with significantly higher mortality. PMID:29399566

Keep up or drown: adjustment of western Pacific coral reefs to sea-level rise in the 21st century

PubMed Central

van Woesik, R.; Golbuu, Y.; Roff, G.

2015-01-01

Since the Mid-Holocene, some 5000 years ago, coral reefs in the Pacific Ocean have been vertically constrained by sea level. Contemporary sea-level rise is releasing these constraints, providing accommodation space for vertical reef expansion. Here, we show that Porites microatolls, from reef-flat environments in Palau (western Pacific Ocean), are ‘keeping up’ with contemporary sea-level rise. Measurements of 570 reef-flat Porites microatolls at 10 locations around Palau revealed recent vertical skeletal extension (78±13 mm) over the last 6–8 years, which is consistent with the timing of the recent increase in sea level. We modelled whether microatoll growth rates will potentially ‘keep up’ with predicted sea-level rise in the near future, based upon average growth, and assuming a decline in growth for every 1°C increase in temperature. We then compared these estimated extension rates with rates of sea-level rise under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our model suggests that under low–mid RCP scenarios, reef-coral growth will keep up with sea-level rise, but if greenhouse gas concentrations exceed 670 ppm atmospheric CO2 levels and with +2.2°C sea-surface temperature by 2100 (RCP 6.0 W m−2), our predictions indicate that Porites microatolls will be unable to keep up with projected rates of sea-level rise in the twenty-first century. PMID:26587277

Maternal and child correlates of anxiety in 2½-year-old children.

PubMed

Mount, Kristin S; Crockenberg, Susan C; Jó, Patricia S Bárrig; Wagar, Jessica-Lyn

2010-12-01

The goal of this study was to predict the development of anxiety in 2½ year olds as a function of maternal anxiety and child inhibited temperament, and to test the mediating, moderating, and curvilinear effects of maternal sensitivity. Participants were 83 mothers and their 2½-year-old children (32 females). Maternal anxiety, child inhibition, and child anxiety were assessed by maternal report. Maternal sensitivity was rated based on the appropriateness and timeliness of mothers' responses to children's fear observed during their exposure to novel events in the laboratory and from mothers' diaries documenting their responses to children's fear in everyday situations. Gender predicted child anxiety, with mothers reporting girls as more anxious, as did child inhibition, with more inhibited children exhibiting more anxiety. Maternal sensitivity predicted child anxiety as a main effect and, in addition, inhibition moderated the curvilinear association of maternal sensitivity and child anxiety. For highly inhibited children, maternal sensitivity predicted anxiety in both a negative linear and a curvilinear fashion; anxiety decreased as maternal sensitivity increased up to a moderately high level, then increased at very high levels of maternal sensitivity. For less inhibited children, maternal sensitivity showed only a significant negative linear association with child anxiety. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Effects of metric hierarchy and rhyme predictability on word duration in The Cat in the Hat.

PubMed

Breen, Mara

2018-05-01

Word durations convey many types of linguistic information, including intrinsic lexical features like length and frequency and contextual features like syntactic and semantic structure. The current study was designed to investigate whether hierarchical metric structure and rhyme predictability account for durational variation over and above other features in productions of a rhyming, metrically-regular children's book: The Cat in the Hat (Dr. Seuss, 1957). One-syllable word durations and inter-onset intervals were modeled as functions of segment number, lexical frequency, word class, syntactic structure, repetition, and font emphasis. Consistent with prior work, factors predicting longer word durations and inter-onset intervals included more phonemes, lower frequency, first mention, alignment with a syntactic boundary, and capitalization. A model parameter corresponding to metric grid height improved model fit of word durations and inter-onset intervals. Specifically, speakers realized five levels of metric hierarchy with inter-onset intervals such that interval duration increased linearly with increased height in the metric hierarchy. Conversely, speakers realized only three levels of metric hierarchy with word duration, demonstrating that they shortened the highly predictable rhyme resolutions. These results further understanding of the factors that affect spoken word duration, and demonstrate the myriad cues that children receive about linguistic structure from nursery rhymes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factors Predicting Compliance to Ecological Momentary Assessment Among Adolescent Smokers

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Introduction: Ecological momentary assessments (EMAs) are increasingly used in smoking research to understand contextual and individual differences related to smoking and changes in smoking. To date, there has been little detailed research into the predictors of EMA compliance. However, patterns or predictors of compliance may affect key relationships under investigation and introduce sources of bias in results. The purpose of this study was to investigate predictors of compliance to random prompts among a sample of adolescents who had ever smoked. Methods: Data for this study were drawn from a sample of 461 adolescents (9th and 10th graders at baseline) participating in a longitudinal study of smoking escalation. We examined 2 outcomes: subject-level EMA compliance (overall rate of compliance over a week-long EMA wave), and in-the-moment prompt-level compliance to the most proximal random prompt. We investigated several covariates including gender, race, smoking rate, alcohol use, psychological symptomatology, home composition, mood, social context, time in study, inter-prompt interval, and location. Results: At the overall subject level, higher mean negative affect, smoking rate, alcohol use, and male gender predicted lower compliance with random EMA prompts. At the prompt level, after controlling for significant subject-level predictors of compliance, increased positive affect, being outside of the home, and longer inter-prompt interval predicted lower momentary compliance. Conclusions: This study identifies several factors associated with overall and momentary EMA compliance among a sample of adolescents participating in a longitudinal study of smoking. We also propose a conceptual framework for investigating the contextual and momentary predictors of compliance within EMA studies. PMID:24097816

Prediction of response to medical therapy by serum soluble (pro)renin receptor levels in Graves’ disease

PubMed Central

Kimura, Shihori; Takano, Noriyoshi; Yamashita, Kaoru; Seki, Yasufumi; Bokuda, Kanako; Yatabe, Midori; Yatabe, Junichi; Watanabe, Daisuke; Ando, Takashi

2018-01-01

Antithyroid drugs are generally selected as the first-line treatment for Graves’ Disease (GD); however, the existence of patients showing resistance or severe side effects to these drugs is an important issue to be solved. The (pro)renin receptor [(P)RR] is a multi-functional protein that activates the tissue renin-angiotensin system and is an essential constituent of vacuolar H+-ATPase, necessary for the autophagy-lysosome pathway. (P)RR is cleaved to soluble (s)(P)RR, which reflects the status of (P)RR expression. In this retrospective study, we aimed to investigate whether serum s(P)RR concentration can be used as a biomarker to predict the outcome of antithyroid drug treatment in GD patients. Serum s(P)RR levels were measured in 54 untreated GD patients and 47 control participants. Effects of medical treatment with antithyroid drugs on these levels were investigated in GD patients. Serum s(P)RR levels were significantly higher in patients with Graves’ disease than in control subjects (P<0.005) and were significantly reduced after medical treatment for Graves’ disease. High serum s(P)RR levels were associated with resistance to antithyroid drug treatment, suggesting that serum s(P)RR concentration can be used as a useful biomarker to predict the outcome of antithyroid drug treatment in these patients. Patients with Graves’ disease with low body mass index showed higher levels of serum soluble (pro)renin receptor levels than those with high body mass index. In addition, in patients with Graves’ disease, serum triglyceride levels were negatively correlated with serum soluble (pro)renin receptor levels. All these data indicated an association between low nutrient condition due to hyperthyroidism and increased (pro)renin receptor expression in these patients, suggesting that (pro)renin receptor expression could be increased in the process of stimulating intracellular energy production via activating autophagy function to compensate energy loss. PMID:29621332

Prediction of response to medical therapy by serum soluble (pro)renin receptor levels in Graves' disease.

PubMed

Mizuguchi, Yuki; Morimoto, Satoshi; Kimura, Shihori; Takano, Noriyoshi; Yamashita, Kaoru; Seki, Yasufumi; Bokuda, Kanako; Yatabe, Midori; Yatabe, Junichi; Watanabe, Daisuke; Ando, Takashi; Ichihara, Atsuhiro

2018-01-01

Antithyroid drugs are generally selected as the first-line treatment for Graves' Disease (GD); however, the existence of patients showing resistance or severe side effects to these drugs is an important issue to be solved. The (pro)renin receptor [(P)RR] is a multi-functional protein that activates the tissue renin-angiotensin system and is an essential constituent of vacuolar H+-ATPase, necessary for the autophagy-lysosome pathway. (P)RR is cleaved to soluble (s)(P)RR, which reflects the status of (P)RR expression. In this retrospective study, we aimed to investigate whether serum s(P)RR concentration can be used as a biomarker to predict the outcome of antithyroid drug treatment in GD patients. Serum s(P)RR levels were measured in 54 untreated GD patients and 47 control participants. Effects of medical treatment with antithyroid drugs on these levels were investigated in GD patients. Serum s(P)RR levels were significantly higher in patients with Graves' disease than in control subjects (P<0.005) and were significantly reduced after medical treatment for Graves' disease. High serum s(P)RR levels were associated with resistance to antithyroid drug treatment, suggesting that serum s(P)RR concentration can be used as a useful biomarker to predict the outcome of antithyroid drug treatment in these patients. Patients with Graves' disease with low body mass index showed higher levels of serum soluble (pro)renin receptor levels than those with high body mass index. In addition, in patients with Graves' disease, serum triglyceride levels were negatively correlated with serum soluble (pro)renin receptor levels. All these data indicated an association between low nutrient condition due to hyperthyroidism and increased (pro)renin receptor expression in these patients, suggesting that (pro)renin receptor expression could be increased in the process of stimulating intracellular energy production via activating autophagy function to compensate energy loss.

Tidal dynamics in a changing lagoon: Flooding or not flooding the marginal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopes, Carina L.; Dias, João M.

2015-12-01

Coastal lagoons are low-lying systems under permanent changes motivated by natural and anthropogenic factors. Ria de Aveiro is such an example with its margins currently threatened by the advance of the lagoonal waters recorded during the last decades. This work aims to study the tidal modifications found between 1987 and 2012 in this lagoon, motivated by the main channels deepening which induce higher inland tidal levels. Additionally it aims to study the impact that protective walls designed to protect the margins against flooding may have in those modifications under sea level rise predictions. The hydrodynamic model ELCIRC previously calibrated for Ria de Aveiro was used and tidal asymmetry, tidal ellipses and residual currents were analyzed for different scenarios, considering the mean sea level rise predicted for 2100 and the implementation of probable flood protection walls. Results evidenced that lagoon dominance remained unchanged between 1987 and 2012, but distortion decreased/increased in the deeper/shallower channels. The same trend was found under mean sea level rise conditions. Tidal currents increased over this period inducing an amplification of the water properties exchange within the lagoon, which will be stronger under mean sea level rise conditions. The deviations between scenarios with or without flood protection walls can achieve 60% for the tidal distortion and residual currents and 20% for the tidal currents, highlighting that tidal properties are extremely sensitive to the lagoon geometry. In summary, the development of numerical modelling applications dedicated to study the influence of mean sea level rise on coastal low-lying systems subjected to human influence should include structural measures designed for flood defence in order to accurately predict changes in the local tidal properties.

Failure of CRP decline within three days of hospitalization is associated with poor prognosis of Community-acquired Pneumonia.

PubMed

Andersen, Stine Bang; Baunbæk Egelund, Gertrud; Jensen, Andreas Vestergaard; Petersen, Pelle Trier; Rohde, Gernot; Ravn, Pernille

2017-04-01

C-reactive protein (CRP) is a well-known acute phase protein used to monitor the patient's response during treatment in infectious diseases. Mortality from Community-acquired Pneumonia (CAP) remains high, particularly in hospitalized patients. Better risk prediction during hospitalization could improve management and ultimately reduce mortality levels. The aim of this study was to evaluate CRP on the 3rd day (CRP3) of hospitalization as a predictor for 30 days mortality. A retrospective multicentre cohort study of adult patients admitted with CAP at three Danish hospitals. Predictive associations of CRP3 (absolute levels and relative decline) and 30 days mortality were analysed using receiver operating characteristics and logistic regression. Eight hundred and fourteen patients were included and 90 (11%) died within 30 days. The area under the curve for CRP3 level and decline for predicting 30 days mortality were 0.64 (0.57-0.70) and 0.71 (0.65-0.76). Risk of death was increased in patients with CRP3 level >75 mg/l (OR 2.44; 95%CI 1.36-4.37) and in patients with a CRP3 decline <50% (OR 4.25; 95%CI 2.30-7.83). In the multivariate analysis, the highest mortality risk was seen in patients who failed to decline by 50%, irrespective of the actual level of CRP (OR 7.8; 95%CI 3.2-19.3). Mortality risk increased significantly according to CRP decline for all strata of CURB-65 score. CRP responses day 3 is a valuable predictor of 30 days mortality in hospitalized CAP patients. Failure to decline in CRP was associated with a poor prognosis irrespective of the actual level of CRP or CURB-65.

Usefulness of Circulating Decoy Receptor 3 in Predicting Coronary Artery Disease Severity and Future Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Chang, Ting-Yung; Hsu, Chien-Yi; Huang, Po-Hsun; Chiang, Chia-Hung; Leu, Hsin-Bang; Huang, Chin-Chou; Chen, Jaw-Wen; Lin, Shing-Jong

2015-10-01

Decoy receptor 3 (DcR3), a member of the tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily, is an antiapoptotic soluble receptor considered to play an important role in immune modulation and has pro-inflammatory functions. This study was designed to test whether circulating DcR3 levels are associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) severity and predict future major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with CAD. Circulating DcR3 levels and the Syntax score (SXscore) were determined in patients with multivessel CAD. The primary end point was the MACE within 12 months. In total, 152 consecutive patients with angiographically confirmed multivessel CAD who had received percutaneous coronary intervention were enrolled and were divided into 3 groups according to CAD lesion severity. Group 1 was defined as low SXscore (≤13), group 2 as intermediate SXscore (>13 and ≤22), and group 3 as high SXscore (>22). DcR3 levels were significantly higher in the high SXscore group than the other 2 groups (13,602 ± 7,256 vs 8,025 ± 7,789 vs 4,637 ± 4,403 pg/ml, p <0.001). By multivariate analysis, circulating DcR3 levels were identified as an independent predictor for high SXscore (adjusted odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.09 to 1.21; p <0.001). The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that increased circulating DcR3 levels are associated with enhanced 1-year MACE in patients with multivessel CAD (log-rank p <0.001). In conclusion, increased circulating DcR3 levels are associated with CAD severity and predict future MACE in patients with multivessel CAD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales

PubMed Central

Sheen, K. L.; Smith, D. M.; Dunstone, N. J.; Eade, R.; Rowell, D. P.; Vellinga, M.

2017-01-01

Summer rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa exhibits one of the largest signals of climatic variability and with a population reliant on agricultural productivity, the Sahel is particularly vulnerable to major droughts such as occurred in the 1970s and 1980s. Rainfall levels have subsequently recovered, but future projections remain uncertain. Here we show that Sahel rainfall is skilfully predicted on inter-annual and multi-year (that is, >5 years) timescales and use these predictions to better understand the driving mechanisms. Moisture budget analysis indicates that on multi-year timescales, a warmer north Atlantic and Mediterranean enhance Sahel rainfall through increased meridional convergence of low-level, externally sourced moisture. In contrast, year-to-year rainfall levels are largely determined by the recycling rate of local moisture, regulated by planetary circulation patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Our findings aid improved understanding and forecasting of Sahel drought, paramount for successful adaptation strategies in a changing climate. PMID:28541288

C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, and cardiovascular disease prediction.

PubMed

Kaptoge, Stephen; Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Pennells, Lisa; Wood, Angela M; White, Ian R; Gao, Pei; Walker, Matthew; Thompson, Alexander; Sarwar, Nadeem; Caslake, Muriel; Butterworth, Adam S; Amouyel, Philippe; Assmann, Gerd; Bakker, Stephan J L; Barr, Elizabeth L M; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Benjamin, Emelia J; Björkelund, Cecilia; Brenner, Hermann; Brunner, Eric; Clarke, Robert; Cooper, Jackie A; Cremer, Peter; Cushman, Mary; Dagenais, Gilles R; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Dankner, Rachel; Davey-Smith, George; Deeg, Dorly; Dekker, Jacqueline M; Engström, Gunnar; Folsom, Aaron R; Fowkes, F Gerry R; Gallacher, John; Gaziano, J Michael; Giampaoli, Simona; Gillum, Richard F; Hofman, Albert; Howard, Barbara V; Ingelsson, Erik; Iso, Hiroyasu; Jørgensen, Torben; Kiechl, Stefan; Kitamura, Akihiko; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Koenig, Wolfgang; Kromhout, Daan; Kuller, Lewis H; Lawlor, Debbie A; Meade, Tom W; Nissinen, Aulikki; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Onat, Altan; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B; Psaty, Bruce M; Rodriguez, Beatriz; Rosengren, Annika; Salomaa, Veikko; Kauhanen, Jussi; Salonen, Jukka T; Shaffer, Jonathan A; Shea, Steven; Ford, Ian; Stehouwer, Coen D A; Strandberg, Timo E; Tipping, Robert W; Tosetto, Alberto; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Wennberg, Patrik; Westendorp, Rudi G; Whincup, Peter H; Wilhelmsen, Lars; Woodward, Mark; Lowe, Gordon D O; Wareham, Nicholas J; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Sattar, Naveed; Packard, Chris J; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Ridker, Paul M; Pepys, Mark B; Thompson, Simon G; Danesh, John

2012-10-04

There is debate about the value of assessing levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and other biomarkers of inflammation for the prediction of first cardiovascular events. We analyzed data from 52 prospective studies that included 246,669 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease to investigate the value of adding CRP or fibrinogen levels to conventional risk factors for the prediction of cardiovascular risk. We calculated measures of discrimination and reclassification during follow-up and modeled the clinical implications of initiation of statin therapy after the assessment of CRP or fibrinogen. The addition of information on high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to a prognostic model for cardiovascular disease that included age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol level increased the C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, by 0.0050. The further addition to this model of information on CRP or fibrinogen increased the C-index by 0.0039 and 0.0027, respectively (P<0.001), and yielded a net reclassification improvement of 1.52% and 0.83%, respectively, for the predicted 10-year risk categories of "low" (<10%), "intermediate" (10% to <20%), and "high" (≥20%) (P<0.02 for both comparisons). We estimated that among 100,000 adults 40 years of age or older, 15,025 persons would initially be classified as being at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event if conventional risk factors alone were used to calculate risk. Assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥20% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), additional targeted assessment of CRP or fibrinogen levels in the 13,199 remaining participants at intermediate risk could help prevent approximately 30 additional cardiovascular events over the course of 10 years. In a study of people without known cardiovascular disease, we estimated that under current treatment guidelines, assessment of the CRP or fibrinogen level in people at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event could help prevent one additional event over a period of 10 years for every 400 to 500 people screened. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others.).

CGM-measured glucose values have a strong correlation with C-peptide, HbA1c and IDAAC, but do poorly in predicting C-peptide levels in the two years following onset of diabetes.

PubMed

Buckingham, Bruce; Cheng, Peiyao; Beck, Roy W; Kollman, Craig; Ruedy, Katrina J; Weinzimer, Stuart A; Slover, Robert; Bremer, Andrew A; Fuqua, John; Tamborlane, William

2015-06-01

The aim of this work was to assess the association between continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data, HbA1c, insulin-dose-adjusted HbA1c (IDAA1c) and C-peptide responses during the first 2 years following diagnosis of type 1 diabetes. A secondary analysis was conducted of data collected from a randomised trial assessing the effect of intensive management initiated within 1 week of diagnosis of type 1 diabetes, in which mixed-meal tolerance tests were performed at baseline and at eight additional time points through 24 months. CGM data were collected at each visit. Among 67 study participants (mean age [± SD] 13.3 ± 5.7 years), HbA1c was inversely correlated with C-peptide at each time point (p < 0.001), as were changes in each measure between time points (p < 0.001). However, C-peptide at one visit did not predict the change in HbA1c at the next visit and vice versa. Higher C-peptide levels correlated with increased proportion of CGM glucose values between 3.9 and 7.8 mmol/l and lower CV (p = 0.001 and p = 0.02, respectively) but not with CGM glucose levels <3.9 mmol/l. Virtually all participants with IDAA1c < 9 retained substantial insulin secretion but when evaluated together with CGM, time in the range of 3.9-7.8 mmol/l and CV did not provide additional value in predicting C-peptide levels. In the first 2 years after diagnosis of type 1 diabetes, higher C-peptide levels are associated with increased sensor glucose levels in the target range and with lower glucose variability but not hypoglycaemia. CGM metrics do not provide added value over the IDAA1c in predicting C-peptide levels.

Increased circulating D-lactate levels predict risk of mortality after hemorrhage and surgical trauma in baboons.

PubMed

Sobhian, Babak; Kröpfl, Albert; Hölzenbein, Thomas; Khadem, Anna; Redl, Heinz; Bahrami, Soheyl

2012-05-01

Patients with hemorrhagic shock and/or trauma are at risk of developing colonic ischemia associated with bacterial translocation that may lead to multiple organ failure and death. Intestinal ischemia is difficult to diagnose noninvasively. The present retrospective study was designed to determine whether circulating plasma D-lactate is associated with mortality in a clinically relevant two-hit model in baboons. Hemorrhagic shock was induced in anesthetized baboons (n = 24) by controlled bleeding (mean arterial pressure, 40 mmHg), base excess (maximum -5 mmol/L), and time (maximum 3 h). To mimic clinical setting more closely, all animals underwent a surgical trauma after resuscitation including midshaft osteotomy stabilized with reamed femoral interlocking nailing and were followed for 7 days. Hemorrhagic shock/surgical trauma resulted in 66% mortality by day 7. In nonsurvivor (n = 16) hemorrhagic shock/surgical trauma baboons, circulating D-lactate levels were significantly increased (2-fold) at 24 h compared with survivors (n = 8), whereas the early increase during hemorrhage and resuscitation declined during the early postresuscitation phase with no difference between survivors and nonsurvivors. Moreover, D-lactate levels remained elevated in the nonsurvival group until death, whereas it decreased to baseline in survivors. Prediction of death (receiver operating characteristic test) by D-lactate was accurate with an area under the curve (days 1-3 after trauma) of 0.85 (95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.93). The optimal D-lactate cutoff value of 25.34 μg/mL produced sensitivity of 73% to 99% and specificity of 50% to 83%. Our data suggest that elevation of plasma D-lactate after 24 h predicts an increased risk of mortality after hemorrhage and trauma.

Air-mediated pollen flow from genetically modified to conventional crops.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Schurr, Frank; Tackenberg, Oliver; O'Hara, Robert B

2007-03-01

Tools for estimating pollen dispersal and the resulting gene flow are necessary to assess the risk of gene flow from genetically modified (GM) to conventional fields, and to quantify the effectiveness of measures that may prevent such gene flow. A mechanistic simulation model is presented and used to simulate pollen dispersal by wind in different agricultural scenarios over realistic pollination periods. The relative importance of landscape-related variables such as isolation distance, topography, spatial configuration of the fields, GM field size and barrier, and environmental variation are examined in order to find ways to minimize gene flow and to detect possible risk factors. The simulations demonstrated a large variation in pollen dispersal and in the predicted amount of contamination between different pollination periods. This was largely due to variation in vertical wind. As this variation in wind conditions is difficult to control through management measures, it should be carefully considered when estimating the risk of gene flow from GM crops. On average, the predicted level of gene flow decreased with increasing isolation distance and with increasing depth of the conventional field, and increased with increasing GM field size. Therefore, at a national scale and over the long term these landscape properties should be accounted for when setting regulations for controlling gene flow. However, at the level of an individual field the level of gene flow may be dominated by uncontrollable variation. Due to the sensitivity of pollen dispersal to the wind, we conclude that gene flow cannot be summarized only by the mean contamination; information about the frequency of extreme events should also be considered. The modeling approach described in this paper offers a way to predict and compare pollen dispersal and gene flow in varying environmental conditions, and to assess the effectiveness of different management measures.

Family conflict interacts with genetic liability in predicting childhood and adolescent depression.

PubMed

Rice, Frances; Harold, Gordon T; Shelton, Katherine H; Thapar, Anita

2006-07-01

To test for gene-environment interaction with depressive symptoms and family conflict. Specifically, to first examine whether the influence of family conflict in predicting depressive symptoms is increased in individuals at genetic risk of depression. Second, to test whether the genetic component of variance in depressive symptoms increases as levels of family conflict increase. A longitudinal twin design was used. Children ages 5 to 16 were reassessed approximately 3 years later to test whether the influence of family conflict in predicting depressive symptoms varied according to genetic liability. The conflict subscale of the Family Environment Scale was used to assess family conflict and the Mood and Feelings Questionnaire was used to assess depressive symptoms. The response rate to the questionnaire at time 1 was 73% and 65% at time 2. Controlling for initial symptoms levels (i.e., internalizing at time 1), primary analyses were conducted using ordinary least-squares multiple regression. Structural equation models, using raw score maximum likelihood estimation, were also fit to the data for the purpose of model fit comparison. Results suggested significant gene-environment interaction specifically with depressive symptoms and family conflict. Genetic factors were of greater importance in the etiology of depressive symptoms where levels of family conflict were high. The effects of family conflict on depressive symptoms were greater in children and adolescents at genetic risk of depression. The present results suggest that children with a family history of depression may be at an increased risk of developing depressive symptoms in response to family conflict. Intervention programs that incorporate one or more family systems may be of benefit in alleviating the adverse effect of negative family factors on children.

Melatonin levels in follicular fluid as markers for IVF outcomes and predicting ovarian reserve.

PubMed

Tong, Jing; Sheng, Shile; Sun, Yun; Li, Huihui; Li, Wei-Ping; Zhang, Cong; Chen, Zi-Jiang

2017-04-01

Good-quality oocytes are critical for the success of in vitro fertilization (IVF), but, to date, there is no marker of ovarian reserve available that can accurately predict oocyte quality. Melatonin exerts its antioxidant actions as a strong radical scavenger that might affect oocyte quality directly as it is the most potent antioxidant in follicular fluid. To investigate the precise role of endogenous melatonin in IVF outcomes, we recruited 61 women undergoing treatment cycles of IVF or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) procedures and classified them into three groups according to their response to ovarian stimulation. Follicular fluid was collected to assess melatonin levels using a direct RIA method. We found good correlations between melatonin levels in follicular fluid with age, anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and baseline follicle-stimulating hormone (bFSH), all of which have been used to predict ovarian reserve. Furthermore, as melatonin levels correlated to IVF outcomes, higher numbers of oocytes were collected from patients with higher melatonin levels and consequently the number of oocytes fertilized, zygotes cleaved, top quality embryos on D3, blastocysts obtained and embryos suitable for transplantation was higher. The blastocyst rate increased in concert with the melatonin levels across the gradient between the poor response group and the high response group. These results demonstrated that the melatonin levels in follicular fluid is associated with both the quantity and quality of oocytes and can predict IVF outcomes as well making them highly relevant biochemical markers of ovarian reserve. © 2017 Society for Reproduction and Fertility.

Coal workers' pneumoconiosis in the United States: regional differences 40 years after implementation of the 1969 Federal Coal Mine Health and Safety Act.

PubMed

Suarthana, Eva; Laney, A Scott; Storey, Eileen; Hale, Janet M; Attfield, Michael D

2011-12-01

To assess whether the recent increases in the prevalence of coal workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP) in the USA reflect increased measured exposures over recent decades, and to identify other potential causative factors. The observed CWP prevalence was calculated for 12,408 underground coal miner participants in the Coal Workers' Health Surveillance Program for the period 2005-2009, stratified by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) geographical districts. The predicted prevalence was estimated using a published exposure-response model from a large epidemiological study among U.S. coal miners using dust exposure, tenure, miner's age and coal rank as predictors. χ2 Testing was performed to compare the observed versus predicted CWP prevalence. Observed prevalence was significantly higher than predicted prevalence in MSHA districts 4-7 (central Appalachian region) (10.1% vs. 4.2%; prevalence ratio (PR) 2.4; p<0.001) and significantly lower than predicted in other regions (1.6% vs. 3.6%; PR 0.4; p<0.001). The central Appalachian region had a significantly older workforce with greater mining tenure, a lower proportion of mines with 200 or more employees, and lower seam heights. Significant lower average compliance dust concentrations were reported for this region. The observed CWP prevalence substantially exceeded predicted levels in central Appalachia. However, the increased prevalence was not explained by the measured levels of dust exposures. Likely contributing factors include mine size and low seam mining, which may be associated with higher exposure to silica. Further study is needed to characterise the responsible factors for the elevated CWP rates in central Appalachia.

Hair cortisol concentrations and cortisol stress reactivity predict PTSD symptom increase after trauma exposure during military deployment.

PubMed

Steudte-Schmiedgen, Susann; Stalder, Tobias; Schönfeld, Sabine; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Trautmann, Sebastian; Alexander, Nina; Miller, Robert; Kirschbaum, Clemens

2015-09-01

Previous evidence on endocrine risk markers for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has been inconclusive. Here, we report results of the first prospective study to investigate whether long-term hair cortisol levels and experimentally-induced cortisol stress reactivity are predictive of the development of PTSD symptomatology in response to trauma during military deployment. Male soldiers were examined before deployment to Afghanistan and at a 12-month post-deployment follow-up using dimensional measures for psychopathological symptoms. The predictive value of baseline (i) hair cortisol concentrations (HCC, N=90) and (ii) salivary cortisol stress reactivity (measured by the Trier Social Stress Test, N=80) for the development of PTSD symptomatology after being exposed to new-onset traumatic events was analyzed. Baseline cortisol activity significantly predicted PTSD symptom change from baseline to follow-up upon trauma exposure. Specifically, our results consistently revealed that lower HCC and lower cortisol stress reactivity were predictive of a greater increase in PTSD symptomatology in soldiers who had experienced new-onset traumatic events (explaining 5% and 10.3% of variance, respectively). Longitudinal analyses revealed an increase in HCC from baseline to follow-up and a trend for a negative relationship between HCC changes and the number of new-onset traumatic events. Additional pre-deployment analyses revealed that trauma history was reflected in lower HCC (at trend level) and that HCC were negatively related to stressful load. Our data indicate that attenuated cortisol secretion is a risk marker for subsequent development of PTSD symptomatology upon trauma exposure. Future studies are needed to confirm our findings in other samples. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Properties of biochar-amended soils and their sorption of imidacloprid, isoproturon, and atrazine.

PubMed

Jin, Jie; Kang, Mingjie; Sun, Ke; Pan, Zezhen; Wu, Fengchang; Xing, Baoshan

2016-04-15

Biochars produced from rice straw, wheat straw and swine manure at 300, 450 and 600°C were added to soil at 1, 5, 10, or 20% levels to determine whether they would predictably reduce the pore water concentration of imidacloprid, isoproturon, and atrazine. The sorption capacity of the mixtures increased with increasing biochar amounts. The enhanced sorption capacity could be attributed to the increased organic carbon (OC) content and surface area (SA) as well as the decreased hydrophobicity. Biochar dominated the overall sorption when its content was above 5%. The OC contents of the mixtures with 10% and 20% biochar were generally lower than the predicted values. This implies possible interaction between soil components and biochar and/or the effect of biochar oxidation. For soils amended with biochars produced at 300°C, the N2 SA (N2-SA) values were underestimated. The predicted CO2 SA (CO2-SA) values of the mixtures at the biochar content of 10% and 20% were generally higher than the experimental values. Sorption of imidacloprid to the soils amended with biochar at 10% and 20% levels, excluding the soils amended with rice (SR300) and wheat (SW300) straw-derived biochar produced at 300°C, was lower than the predicted value. For SR300 and SW300, the intrinsic sorption capacity of biochar was enhanced by 1.3-5.6 times, depending on the biochar, solute concentration, and biochar dose. This study indicates that biochars would be helpful to stabilize the soil contaminated with imidacloprid, isoproturon, and atrazine, but the sorption capacity of the mixtures could exceed or fall short of predicted values without assuming a cross-effect between soil and biochar. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiple SNPs Within and Surrounding the Apolipoprotein E Gene Influence Cerebrospinal Fluid Apolipoprotein E Protein Levels

PubMed Central

Bekris, Lynn M.; Millard, Steven P.; Galloway, Nichole M.; Vuletic, Simona; Albers, John J.; Li, Ge; Galasko, Douglas R.; DeCarli, Charles; Farlow, Martin R.; Clark, Chris M.; Quinn, Joseph F.; Kaye, Jeffrey A.; Schellenberg, Gerard D.; Tsuang, Debby; Peskind, Elaine R.; Yu, Chang-En

2010-01-01

The ε4 allele of the apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) is associated with increased risk and earlier age at onset in late onset Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Other factors, such as expression level of apolipoprotein E protein (apoE), have been postulated to modify the APOE related risk of developing AD. Multiple loci in and outside of APOE are associated with a high risk of AD. The aim of this exploratory hypothesis generating investigation was to determine if some of these loci predict cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) apoE levels in healthy non-demented subjects. CSF apoE levels were measured from healthy non-demented subjects 21–87 years of age (n = 134). Backward regression models were used to evaluate the influence of 21 SNPs, within and surrounding APOE, on CSF apoE levels while taking into account age, gender, APOE ε4 and correlation between SNPs (linkage disequilibrium). APOE ε4 genotype does not predict CSF apoE levels. Three SNPs within the TOMM40 gene, one APOE promoter SNP and two SNPs within distal APOE enhancer elements (ME1 and BCR) predict CSF apoE levels. Further investigation of the genetic influence of these loci on apoE expression levels in the central nervous system is likely to provide new insight into apoE regulation as well as AD pathogenesis. PMID:18430993

Large splenic volume may be a useful predictor for partial splenic embolization-induced liver functional improvement in cirrhotic patients.

PubMed

Hayashi, Hiromitsu; Beppu, Toru; Masuda, Toshiro; Okabe, Hirohisa; Imai, Katsunori; Hashimoto, Daisuke; Ikuta, Yoshiaki; Chikamoto, Akira; Watanabe, Masayuki; Baba, Hideo

2014-01-01

Partial splenic embolization (PSE) for cirrhotic patients has been reported not only to achieve an improvement in thrombocytopenia and portal hypertension, but also to induce PSE-associated fringe benefit such as individual liver functional improvement. The purpose of this study was to clarify the predictive marker of liver functional improvement due from PSE in cirrhotic patients. From April 1999 to January 2009, 83 cirrhotic patients with hypersplenism-induced thrombocytopenia (platelet count <10 × 10(4)/μl) underwent PSE. Of them, 71 patients with follow-up for more than one year after PSE were retrospectively investigated. In liver tissues after PSE, proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA)-positive hepatocytes were remarkably increased, speculating that PSE induced liver regenerative response. Indeed, serum albumin and cholinesterase levels increased to 104 ± 14% and 130 ± 65% each of the pretreatment level at one year after PSE. In a multiple linear regression analysis, preoperative splenic volume was extracted as the predictive factor for the improvement in cholinesterase level after PSE. Cirrhotic patients with preoperative splenic volume >600 ml obtained significantly higher serum albumin and cholinesterase levels at one year after PSE compared to those with less than 600 ml (P-values were 0.029 in both). A large preoperative splenic volume was the useful predictive marker for an effective PSE-induced liver functional improvement. © 2013 Japanese Society of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery.

Review and evaluation of performance measures for survival prediction models in external validation settings.

PubMed

Rahman, M Shafiqur; Ambler, Gareth; Choodari-Oskooei, Babak; Omar, Rumana Z

2017-04-18

When developing a prediction model for survival data it is essential to validate its performance in external validation settings using appropriate performance measures. Although a number of such measures have been proposed, there is only limited guidance regarding their use in the context of model validation. This paper reviewed and evaluated a wide range of performance measures to provide some guidelines for their use in practice. An extensive simulation study based on two clinical datasets was conducted to investigate the performance of the measures in external validation settings. Measures were selected from categories that assess the overall performance, discrimination and calibration of a survival prediction model. Some of these have been modified to allow their use with validation data, and a case study is provided to describe how these measures can be estimated in practice. The measures were evaluated with respect to their robustness to censoring and ease of interpretation. All measures are implemented, or are straightforward to implement, in statistical software. Most of the performance measures were reasonably robust to moderate levels of censoring. One exception was Harrell's concordance measure which tended to increase as censoring increased. We recommend that Uno's concordance measure is used to quantify concordance when there are moderate levels of censoring. Alternatively, Gönen and Heller's measure could be considered, especially if censoring is very high, but we suggest that the prediction model is re-calibrated first. We also recommend that Royston's D is routinely reported to assess discrimination since it has an appealing interpretation. The calibration slope is useful for both internal and external validation settings and recommended to report routinely. Our recommendation would be to use any of the predictive accuracy measures and provide the corresponding predictive accuracy curves. In addition, we recommend to investigate the characteristics of the validation data such as the level of censoring and the distribution of the prognostic index derived in the validation setting before choosing the performance measures.

Suppression of homocysteine levels by vitamin B12 and folates: age and gender dependency in the Jackson Heart Study.

PubMed

Henry, Olivia R; Benghuzzi, Hamed; Taylor, Herman A; Tucci, Michelle; Butler, Kenneth; Jones, Lynne

2012-08-01

To examine factors potentially contributing to premature cardiovascular disease mortality in African Americans (40% versus 20% all other populations), plasma homocysteine, serum vitamin B12 and folate levels were examined for African American participants in the Jackson Heart Study. Of 5192 African American Jackson Heart Study participants (21-94 years), 5064 (mean age, 55 ± 13 years; 63% female) had homocysteine levels measured via fasting blood samples, with further assessments of participants' vitamin B12 (n = 1790) and folate (n = 1788) levels. Regression analyses were used to examine age, gender, vitamin B12 and folate with homocysteine levels. Homocysteine levels, a purported surrogate risk factor for cardiovascular disease, increased with age, were inversely proportional to folate and vitamin B12 levels (P < 0.001) and were higher for men of all ages. The results show that, as with other populations, age, gender, vitamin B12 and folate may predict homocysteine levels for African Americans. Diet may be an important predictive factor as well, given the relationships that were observed between plasma homocysteine and serum B vitamin levels.

Effects of olive tree branches burning emissions on PM2.5 concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadakis, G. Z.; Megaritis, A. G.; Pandis, S. N.

2015-07-01

An olive tree branches burning emission inventory for Greece is developed based on recently measured emission factors and the spatial distribution of olive trees. A three-dimensional chemical transport model (CTM), PMCAMx, is used to estimate the corresponding impact on PM2.5 concentrations during a typical winter period. Assuming that burning of olive tree branches takes place only during days with low wind speed and without precipitation, the contribution of olive tree branches burning emissions on PM2.5 levels is more significant during the most polluted days. Increases of hourly PM2.5 exceeding 50% and locally reaching up to 150% in Crete are predicted during the most polluted periods. On a monthly-average basis, the corresponding emissions are predicted to increase PM2.5 levels up to 1.5 μg m-3 (20%) in Crete and Peloponnese, where the largest fraction of olive trees is located, and by 0.4 μg m-3 (5%) on average over Greece. OA and EC levels increase by 20% and 13% respectively on average over Greece, and up to 70% in Crete. The magnitude of the effect is quite sensitive to burning practices. Assuming that burning of olive tree branches takes place during all days results in a smaller effect of burning on PM2.5 levels (9% increase instead of 20%). These results suggest that this type of agricultural waste burning is a major source of particulate pollution in the Mediterranean countries where this practice is prevalent during winter.

Changes in DHEA-s levels during the first year of treatment in patients with clinical burnout are related to health development.

PubMed

Lennartsson, Anna-Karin; Theorell, Töres; Kushnir, Mark M; Jonsdottir, Ingibjörg H

2016-10-01

The regenerative hormone DHEA-S was measured in 122 patients with clinical burnout during their first year of treatment. Relations between change of DHEA-S levels and development in health were investigated. About half of the patients exhibited increased DHEA-S levels during the year, while the other half exhibited decreased levels. There was no difference in burnout symptoms or associated health status at baseline between subsequent DHEA-S increasing and DHEA-S decreasing groups. Greater reduction in the burnout symptoms was observed in patients in who DHEA-S levels increased during the year, than in the patients in who DHEA-S levels decreased. Relative change of DHEA-S and direction of the change during the year both predicted burnout symptoms at the end of the year. In addition, patients with increased DHEA-S levels had better self-rated health, vitality and well-being. Our data suggest that changes in DHEA-S are associated with prognosis for the outcome in burnout patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting Intracerebral Hemorrhage Growth With the Spot Sign: The Effect of Onset-to-Scan Time.

PubMed

Dowlatshahi, Dar; Brouwers, H Bart; Demchuk, Andrew M; Hill, Michael D; Aviv, Richard I; Ufholz, Lee-Anne; Reaume, Michael; Wintermark, Max; Hemphill, J Claude; Murai, Yasuo; Wang, Yongjun; Zhao, Xingquan; Wang, Yilong; Li, Na; Sorimachi, Takatoshi; Matsumae, Mitsunori; Steiner, Thorsten; Rizos, Timolaos; Greenberg, Steven M; Romero, Javier M; Rosand, Jonathan; Goldstein, Joshua N; Sharma, Mukul

2016-03-01

Hematoma expansion after acute intracerebral hemorrhage is common and is associated with early deterioration and poor clinical outcome. The computed tomographic angiography (CTA) spot sign is a promising predictor of expansion; however, frequency and predictive values are variable across studies, possibly because of differences in onset-to-CTA time. We performed a patient-level meta-analysis to define the relationship between onset-to-CTA time and frequency and predictive ability of the spot sign. We completed a systematic review for studies of CTA spot sign and hematoma expansion. We subsequently pooled patient-level data on the frequency and predictive values for significant hematoma expansion according to 5 predefined categorized onset-to-CTA times. We calculated spot-sign frequency both as raw and frequency-adjusted rates. Among 2051 studies identified, 12 met our inclusion criteria. Baseline hematoma volume, spot-sign status, and time-to-CTA were available for 1176 patients, and 1039 patients had follow-up computed tomographies for hematoma expansion analysis. The overall spot sign frequency was 26%, decreasing from 39% within 2 hours of onset to 13% beyond 8 hours (P<0.001). There was a significant decrease in hematoma expansion in spot-positive patients as onset-to-CTA time increased (P=0.004), with positive predictive values decreasing from 53% to 33%. The frequency of the CTA spot sign is inversely related to intracerebral hemorrhage onset-to-CTA time. Furthermore, the positive predictive value of the spot sign for significant hematoma expansion decreases as time-to-CTA increases. Our results offer more precise risk stratification for patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage and will help refine clinical prediction rules for intracerebral hemorrhage expansion. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Contributions of individual acculturation and neighborhood ethnic density to variations in Hispanic children's respiratory health in a US-Mexican border metropolis.

PubMed

Grineski, Sara E; Collins, Timothy W; Kim, Young-An

2016-09-01

We used an expanded conceptualization of ethnic density at the neighborhood level, tailored to Hispanic majority communities in the USA, and a robust measure of children's acculturation at the individual level, to predict Hispanic children's respiratory health. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 1904 children in 2012 in El Paso, TX, USA. One thousand one hundred and seven Hispanic children nested within 72 census tracts were analyzed. Multilevel logistic regression models with cross-level interactions were used to predict bronchitis, asthma and wheezing during sleep. A neighborhood-level ethnic density factor was a non-significant risk factor while individual-level acculturation was a significant risk factor for the three outcomes. Pest troubles and not having been breastfed as an infant intensified the positive association between ethnic density and bronchitis. Increases in ethnic density intensified the odds of wheezing in sleep if the child was not low birth weight or was not economically deprived. Results suggest that increasing individual-level acculturation is detrimental for US Hispanic children's respiratory health in this Hispanic majority setting, while high ethnic density neighborhoods are mildly risky and pose more significant threats when other individual-level factors are present. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Eustatic control of turbidites and winnowed turbidites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shanmugam, G.; Moiola, R.J.

1982-05-01

Global changes in sea level, primarily the results of tectonism and glaciation, control deep-sea sedimentation. During periods of low sea level the frequency of turbidity currents is greatly increased. Episodes of low sea level also cause vigorous contour currents, which winnow away the fines of turbidites. In the rock record, the occurrence of most turbidites and winnowed turbidities closely corresponds to global lowstands of paleo-sea level. This observation may be useful in predicting the occurrence of deep-sea reservoir facies in the geologic record.

A Prospective Examination of Clinician and Supervisor Turnover Within the Context of Implementation of Evidence-Based Practices in a Publicly-Funded Mental Health System.

PubMed

Beidas, Rinad S; Marcus, Steven; Wolk, Courtney Benjamin; Powell, Byron; Aarons, Gregory A; Evans, Arthur C; Hurford, Matthew O; Hadley, Trevor; Adams, Danielle R; Walsh, Lucia M; Babbar, Shaili; Barg, Frances; Mandell, David S

2016-09-01

Staff turnover rates in publicly-funded mental health settings are high. We investigated staff and organizational predictors of turnover in a sample of individuals working in an urban public mental health system that has engaged in a system-level effort to implement evidence-based practices. Additionally, we interviewed staff to understand reasons for turnover. Greater staff burnout predicted increased turnover, more openness toward new practices predicted retention, and more professional recognition predicted increased turnover. Staff reported leaving their organizations because of personal, organizational, and financial reasons; just over half of staff that left their organization stayed in the public mental health sector. Implications include an imperative to focus on turnover, with a particular emphasis on ameliorating staff burnout.

Terrestrial nitrous oxide cycles and atmospheric effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitten, R. C.; Lawless, J. G.; Banin, A.

1984-01-01

The basic processes that cause N2O emission from soils are briefly discussed, and the rate of the processes is shown to vary widely in space and time, depending on soil, climate, and agrotechnical conditions. Although significant amounts of N2O are indeed emitted from the land, the complexity of the soil processes involved and the wide variation of measured rates still prevents the quantitative evaluation, global budgeting, and reliable prediction of atmospheric N2O. Increased atmospheric N2O abundance increases the levels of odd-nitrogen in the stratosphere, which, in turn, decreases the stratospheric ozone density via a catalytic cycle. Using appropriate atmospheric models and current chemical kinetic data, it has been found that the dependence of ozone reduction on N2O increase is nearly linear; a simulated doubling of N2O leads to a predicted decrease of about 14 percent in total ozone column density. A 10 percent increase in N2O yields a predicted increase in nonmelanoma skin cancer of several percent, and a possible raising of surface temperature of 0.03 K.

Oral Lactobacillus Counts Predict Weight Gain Susceptibility: A 6-Year Follow-Up Study

PubMed Central

Rosing, Johanne Aviaja; Walker, Karen Christina; Jensen, Benjamin A.H.; Heitmann, Berit L.

2017-01-01

Background Recent studies have shown an association between weight change and the makeup of the intestinal microbiota in humans. Specifically, Lactobacillus, a part of the entire gastrointestinal tract's microbiota, has been shown to contribute to weight regulation. Aim We examined the association between the level of oral Lactobacillus and the subsequent 6-year weight change in a healthy population of 322 Danish adults aged 35–65 years at baseline. Design Prospective observational study. Results In unadjusted analysis the level of oral Lactobacillus was inversely associated with subsequent 6-year change in BMI. A statistically significant interaction between the baseline level of oral Lactobacillus and the consumption of complex carbohydrates was found, e.g. high oral Lactobacillus count predicted weight loss for those with a low intake of complex carbohydrates, while a medium intake of complex carbohydrates predicted diminished weight gain. A closer examination of these relations showed that BMI change and Lactobacillus level was unrelated for those with high complex carbohydrate consumption. Conclusion A high level of oral Lactobacillus seems related to weight loss among those with medium and low intakes of complex carbohydrates. Absence, or a low level of oral Lactobacillus, may potentially be a novel marker to identify those at increased risk of weight gain. PMID:29020671

Oral Lactobacillus Counts Predict Weight Gain Susceptibility: A 6-Year Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Rosing, Johanne Aviaja; Walker, Karen Christina; Jensen, Benjamin A H; Heitmann, Berit L

2017-01-01

Recent studies have shown an association between weight change and the makeup of the intestinal microbiota in humans. Specifically, Lactobacillus, a part of the entire gastrointestinal tract's microbiota, has been shown to contribute to weight regulation. We examined the association between the level of oral Lactobacillus and the subsequent 6-year weight change in a healthy population of 322 Danish adults aged 35-65 years at baseline. Prospective observational study. In unadjusted analysis the level of oral Lactobacillus was inversely associated with subsequent 6-year change in BMI. A statistically significant interaction between the baseline level of oral Lactobacillus and the consumption of complex carbohydrates was found, e.g. high oral Lactobacillus count predicted weight loss for those with a low intake of complex carbohydrates, while a medium intake of complex carbohydrates predicted diminished weight gain. A closer examination of these relations showed that BMI change and Lactobacillus level was unrelated for those with high complex carbohydrate consumption. A high level of oral Lactobacillus seems related to weight loss among those with medium and low intakes of complex carbohydrates. Absence, or a low level of oral Lactobacillus, may potentially be a novel marker to identify those at increased risk of weight gain. © 2017 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

Whole-brain grey matter density predicts balance stability irrespective of age and protects older adults from falling.

PubMed

Boisgontier, Matthieu P; Cheval, Boris; van Ruitenbeek, Peter; Levin, Oron; Renaud, Olivier; Chanal, Julien; Swinnen, Stephan P

2016-03-01

Functional and structural imaging studies have demonstrated the involvement of the brain in balance control. Nevertheless, how decisive grey matter density and white matter microstructural organisation are in predicting balance stability, and especially when linked to the effects of ageing, remains unclear. Standing balance was tested on a platform moving at different frequencies and amplitudes in 30 young and 30 older adults, with eyes open and with eyes closed. Centre of pressure variance was used as an indicator of balance instability. The mean density of grey matter and mean white matter microstructural organisation were measured using voxel-based morphometry and diffusion tensor imaging, respectively. Mixed-effects models were built to analyse the extent to which age, grey matter density, and white matter microstructural organisation predicted balance instability. Results showed that both grey matter density and age independently predicted balance instability. These predictions were reinforced when the level of difficulty of the conditions increased. Furthermore, grey matter predicted balance instability beyond age and at least as consistently as age across conditions. In other words, for balance stability, the level of whole-brain grey matter density is at least as decisive as being young or old. Finally, brain grey matter appeared to be protective against falls in older adults as age increased the probability of losing balance in older adults with low, but not moderate or high grey matter density. No such results were observed for white matter microstructural organisation, thereby reinforcing the specificity of our grey matter findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Growth in elevated CO(2) can both increase and decrease photochemistry and photoinhibition of photosynthesis in a predictable manner. Dactylis glomerata grown in two levels of nitrogen nutrition.

PubMed

Hymus, G J; Baker, N R; Long, S P

2001-11-01

Biochemically based models of C(3) photosynthesis can be used to predict that when photosynthesis is limited by the amount of Rubisco, increasing atmospheric CO(2) partial pressure (pCO(2)) will increase light-saturated linear electron flow through photosystem II (J(t)). This is because the stimulation of electron flow to the photosynthetic carbon reduction cycle (J(c)) will be greater than the competitive suppression of electron flow to the photorespiratory carbon oxidation cycle (J(o)). Where elevated pCO(2) increases J(t), then the ratio of absorbed energy dissipated photochemically to that dissipated non-photochemically will rise. These predictions were tested on Dactylis glomerata grown in fully controlled environments, at either ambient (35 Pa) or elevated (65 Pa) pCO(2), and at two levels of nitrogen nutrition. As was predicted, for D. glomerata grown in high nitrogen, J(t) was significantly higher in plants grown and measured at elevated pCO(2) than for plants grown and measured at ambient pCO(2). This was due to a significant increase in J(c) exceeding any suppression of J(o). This increase in photochemistry at elevated pCO(2) protected against photoinhibition at high light. For plants grown at low nitrogen, J(t) was significantly lower in plants grown and measured at elevated pCO(2) than for plants grown and measured at ambient pCO(2). Elevated pCO(2) again suppressed J(o); however growth in elevated pCO(2) resulted in an acclimatory decrease in leaf Rubisco content that removed any stimulation of J(c). Consistent with decreased photochemistry, for leaves grown at low nitrogen, the recovery from a 3-h photoinhibitory treatment was slower at elevated pCO(2).

Using Smartphones to Monitor Bipolar Disorder Symptoms: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Beiwinkel, Till; Kindermann, Sally; Maier, Andreas; Kerl, Christopher; Moock, Jörn; Barbian, Guido; Rössler, Wulf

2016-01-06

Relapse prevention in bipolar disorder can be improved by monitoring symptoms in patients' daily life. Smartphone apps are easy-to-use, low-cost tools that can be used to assess this information. To date, few studies have examined the usefulness of smartphone data for monitoring symptoms in bipolar disorder. We present results from a pilot test of a smartphone-based monitoring system, Social Information Monitoring for Patients with Bipolar Affective Disorder (SIMBA), that tracked daily mood, physical activity, and social communication in 13 patients. The objective of this study was to investigate whether smartphone measurements predicted clinical symptoms levels and clinical symptom change. The hypotheses that smartphone measurements are (1) negatively related to clinical depressive symptoms and (2) positively related to clinical manic symptoms were tested. Clinical rating scales were administered to assess clinical depressive and manic symptoms. Patients used a smartphone with the monitoring app for up to 12 months. Random-coefficient multilevel models were computed to analyze the relationship between smartphone data and externally rated manic and depressive symptoms. Overall clinical symptom levels and clinical symptom changes were predicted by separating between-patient and within-patient effects. Using established clinical thresholds from the literature, marginal effect plots displayed clinical relevance of smartphone data. Overall symptom levels and change in clinical symptoms were related to smartphone measures. Higher overall levels of clinical depressive symptoms were predicted by lower self-reported mood measured by the smartphone (beta=-.56, P<.001). An increase in clinical depressive symptoms was predicted by a decline in social communication (ie, outgoing text messages: beta=-.28, P<.001) and a decline in physical activity as measured by the smartphone (ie, cell tower movements: beta=-.11, P=.03). Higher overall levels of clinical manic symptoms were predicted by lower physical activity on the smartphone (ie, distance travelled: beta=-.37, P<.001), and higher social communication (beta=.48, P=.03). An increase in clinical manic symptoms was predicted by a decrease in physical activity on the smartphone (beta=-.17, P<.001). Clinical symptoms were related to some objective and subjective smartphone measurements, but not all smartphone measures predicted the occurrence of bipolar symptoms above clinical thresholds. Thus, smartphones have the potential to monitor bipolar disorder symptoms in patients' daily life. Further validation of monitoring tools in a larger sample is needed. Conclusions are limited by the low prevalence of manic and depressive symptoms in the study sample. International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 05663421; http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN05663421 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6d9wsibJB).

Combining Satellite Measurements and Numerical Flood Prediction Models to Save Lives and Property from Flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh, F.; Garambois, P. A.; Biancamaria, S.

2017-12-01

Floods are considered the major natural threats to human societies across all continents. Consequences of floods in highly populated areas are more dramatic with losses of human lives and substantial property damage. This risk is projected to increase with the effects of climate change, particularly sea-level rise, increasing storm frequencies and intensities and increasing population and economic assets in such urban watersheds. Despite the advances in computational resources and modeling techniques, significant gaps exist in predicting complex processes and accurately representing the initial state of the system. Improving flood prediction models and data assimilation chains through satellite has become an absolute priority to produce accurate flood forecasts with sufficient lead times. The overarching goal of this work is to assess the benefits of the Surface Water Ocean Topography SWOT satellite data from a flood prediction perspective. The near real time methodology is based on combining satellite data from a simulator that mimics the future SWOT data, numerical models, high resolution elevation data and real-time local measurement in the New York/New Jersey area.

Predicting Insulin Absorption and Glucose Uptake during Exercise in Type 1 Diabetes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Spencer; Hinshaw, Ling; Basu, Rita; Szeri, Andrew; Basu, Ananda

2017-11-01

A dose of insulin infused into subcutaneous tissue has been shown to absorb more quickly during exercise, potentially causing hypoglycemia in persons with type 1 diabetes. We develop a model that relates exercise-induced physiological changes to enhanced insulin-absorption (k) and glucose uptake (GU). Drawing on concepts of the microcirculation we derive a relationship that reveals that k and GU are mainly determined by two physiological parameters that characterize the tissue: the tissue perfusion rate (Q) and the capillary permeability surface area (PS). Independently measured values of Q and PS from the literature are used in the model to make predictions of k and GU. We compare these predictions to experimental observations of healthy and diabetic patients that are given a meal followed by rest or exercise. The experiments show that during exercise insulin concentrations significantly increase and that glucose levels fall rapidly. The model predictions are consistent with the experiments and show that increases in Q and PS directly increase k and GU. This mechanistic understanding provides a basis for handling exercise in control algorithms for an artificial pancreas. Now at University of British Columbia.

Genetically Predicted Body Mass Index and Alzheimer’s Disease Related Phenotypes in Three Large Samples: Mendelian Randomization Analyses

PubMed Central

Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Walter, Stefan; Kauwe, John S.K.; Saykin, Andrew J.; Bennett, David A.; Larson, Eric B.; Crane, Paul K.; Glymour, M. Maria

2015-01-01

Observational research shows that higher body mass index (BMI) increases Alzheimer’s disease (AD) risk, but it is unclear whether this association is causal. We applied genetic variants that predict BMI in Mendelian Randomization analyses, an approach that is not biased by reverse causation or confounding, to evaluate whether higher BMI increases AD risk. We evaluated individual level data from the AD Genetics Consortium (ADGC: 10,079 AD cases and 9,613 controls), the Health and Retirement Study (HRS: 8,403 participants with algorithm-predicted dementia status) and published associations from the Genetic and Environmental Risk for AD consortium (GERAD1: 3,177 AD cases and 7,277 controls). No evidence from individual SNPs or polygenic scores indicated BMI increased AD risk. Mendelian Randomization effect estimates per BMI point (95% confidence intervals) were: ADGC OR=0.95 (0.90, 1.01); HRS OR=1.00 (0.75, 1.32); GERAD1 OR=0.96 (0.87, 1.07). One subscore (cellular processes not otherwise specified) unexpectedly predicted lower AD risk. PMID:26079416

Concurrent Overexpression of Arabidopsis thaliana Cystathionine γ-Synthase and Silencing of Endogenous Methionine γ-Lyase Enhance Tuber Methionine Content in Solanum tuberosum.

PubMed

Kumar, Pavan; Jander, Georg

2017-04-05

Potatoes (Solanum tuberosum) are deficient in methionine, an essential amino acid in human and animal diets. Higher methionine levels increase the nutritional quality and promote the typically pleasant aroma associated with baked and fried potatoes. Several attempts have been made to elevate tuber methionine levels by genetic engineering of methionine biosynthesis and catabolism. Overexpressing Arabidopsis thaliana cystathionine γ-synthase (AtCGS) in S. tuberosum up-regulates a rate-limiting step of methionine biosynthesis and increases tuber methionine levels. Alternatively, silencing S. tuberosum methionine γ-lyase (StMGL), which causes decreased degradation of methionine into 2-ketobutyrate, also increases methionine levels. Concurrently enhancing biosynthesis and reducing degradation were predicted to provide further increases in tuber methionine content. Here we report that S. tuberosum cv. Désirée plants with AtCGS overexpression and StMGL silenced by RNA interference are morphologically normal and accumulate higher free methionine levels than either single-transgenic line.

Genetic Susceptibility to Lipid Levels and Lipid Change Over Time and Risk of Incident Hyperlipidemia in Chinese Populations.

PubMed

Lu, Xiangfeng; Huang, Jianfeng; Mo, Zengnan; He, Jiang; Wang, Laiyuan; Yang, Xueli; Tan, Aihua; Chen, Shufeng; Chen, Jing; Gu, C Charles; Chen, Jichun; Li, Ying; Zhao, Liancheng; Li, Hongfan; Hao, Yongchen; Li, Jianxin; Hixson, James E; Li, Yunzhi; Cheng, Min; Liu, Xiaoli; Cao, Jie; Liu, Fangcao; Huang, Chen; Shen, Chong; Shen, Jinjin; Yu, Ling; Xu, Lihua; Mu, Jianjun; Wu, Xianping; Ji, Xu; Guo, Dongshuang; Zhou, Zhengyuan; Yang, Zili; Wang, Renping; Yang, Jun; Yan, Weili; Peng, Xiaozhong; Gu, Dongfeng

2016-02-01

Multiple genetic loci associated with lipid levels have been identified predominantly in Europeans, and the issue of to what extent these genetic loci can predict blood lipid levels increases over time and the incidence of future hyperlipidemia remains largely unknown. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of lipid levels in 8344 subjects followed by replication studies including 14 739 additional individuals. We replicated 17 previously reported loci. We also newly identified 3 Chinese-specific variants in previous regions (HLA-C, LIPG, and LDLR) with genome-wide significance. Almost all the variants contributed to lipid levels change and incident hyperlipidemia >8.1-year follow-up among 6428 individuals of a prospective cohort study. The strongest associations for lipid levels change were detected at LPL, TRIB1, APOA1-C3-A4-A5, LIPC, CETP, and LDLR (P range from 4.84×10(-4) to 4.62×10(-18)), whereas LPL, TRIB1, ABCA1, APOA1-C3-A4-A5, CETP, and APOE displayed significant strongest associations for incident hyperlipidemia (P range from 1.20×10(-3) to 4.67×10(-16)). The 4 lipids genetic risk scores were independently associated with linear increases in their corresponding lipid levels and risk of incident hyperlipidemia. A C-statistics analysis showed significant improvement in the prediction of incident hyperlipidemia on top of traditional risk factors including the baseline lipid levels. These findings identified some evidence for allelic heterogeneity in Chinese when compared with Europeans in relation to lipid associations. The individual variants and those cumulative effects were independent risk factors for lipids increase and incident hyperlipidemia. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

To what extent do joint attention, imitation, and object play behaviors in infancy predict later communication and intellectual functioning in ASD?

PubMed

Poon, Kenneth K; Watson, Linda R; Baranek, Grace T; Poe, Michele D

2012-06-01

The extent to which early social communication behaviors predict later communication and intellectual outcomes was investigated via retrospective video analysis. Joint attention, imitation, and complex object play behaviors were coded from edited home videos featuring scenes of 29 children with ASD at 9-12 and/or 15-18 months. A quantitative interval recording of behavior and a qualitative rating of the developmental level were applied. Social communication behaviors increased between 9-12 and 15-18 months. Their mean level during infancy, but not the rate of change, predicted both Vineland Communication scores and intellectual functioning at 3-7 years. The two methods of measurement yielded similar results. Thus, early social communicative behaviors may play pivotal roles in the development of subsequent communication and intellectual functioning.

Chronic and Daily Stressors Along With Negative Affect Interact to Predict Daily Tiredness.

PubMed

Hartsell, Elizabeth N; Neupert, Shevaun D

2017-11-01

The present study examines the within-person relationship of daily stressors and tiredness and whether this depends on daily negative affect and individual differences in chronic stress. One hundred sixteen older adult participants were recruited via Amazon's Mechanical Turk for a 9-day daily diary study. Daily tiredness, daily stressors, and negative affect were measured each day, and chronic stress was measured at baseline. Daily stressors, daily negative affect, and chronic stress interacted to predict daily tiredness. People with high chronic stress who experienced an increase in daily negative affect were the most reactive to daily stressors in terms of experiencing an increase in daily tiredness. We also found that people with low levels of chronic stress were the most reactive to daily stressors when they experienced low levels of daily negative affect. Our results highlight the need for individualized and contextualized approaches to combating daily tiredness in older adults.

Organizational trust and empowerment in restructured healthcare settings. Effects on staff nurse commitment.

PubMed

Laschinger, H K; Finegan, J; Shamian, J; Casier, S

2000-09-01

In today's dramatically restructured healthcare work environments, organizational trust is an increasingly important element in determining employee performance and commitment to the organization. The authors used Kanter's model of workplace empowerment to examine the effects of organizational trust and empowerment on two types of organizational commitment. A predictive, nonexperimental design was used to test Kanter's theory in a random sample of 412 Canadian staff nurses. Empowered nurses reported higher levels of organizational trust, which in turn resulted in higher levels of affective commitment. However, empowerment did not predict continuance commitment--that is, commitment to stay in the organization based on perceived lack of other job opportunities. Because past research has linked affective commitment to employee productivity, these results suggest that fostering environments that enhance perceptions of empowerment and organizational trust will have positive effects on organizational members and increase organizational effectiveness.

Longitudinal association between eating frequency and HbA1c and serum lipids in diabetes in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study.

PubMed

Li, Chao; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Dabelea, Dana; Liese, Angela D; Mayer-Davis, Elizabeth J; Pate, Russell; Merchant, Anwar T

2018-04-30

Few studies have evaluated the prospective association of eating frequency with HbA1c levels and cardiovascular disease risk markers among youth with diabetes. To examine the 5-year longitudinal association of eating frequency with HbA1c and serum lipid levels among youth with type 1 diabetes (T1D) or type 2 diabetes (T2D). 1,049 youth (≥10 years old) with incident T1D (n=821) or T2D (n=228) who participated in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study were included. Eating frequency (≤3, 4-5 or 6-10 times/day) measured at baseline and follow-up visits was related to HbA1c and serum lipid levels measured repeatedly over 5 years. Increased eating frequency was associated with larger increases in HbA1c among youth T1D. For example, for youth with T1D who ate ≤ 3 times/day at the outset and ate 6-10 times/day 5 years later, the longitudinal model predicted greater absolute increases in HbA1c (2.77%); whereas for youth with T1D who ate 6-10 times/day at the outset and ate ≤3 times/day 5 years later, the model predicted lesser absolute increases in HbA1c (1.33%). Eating frequency was not associated with changes in serum lipid levels among youth with T1D or T2D. Youth with T1D who increased their eating frequency vs. those who decreased it had larger increases in HbA1c over 5 years. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Seawater pH Predicted for the Year 2100 Affects the Metabolic Response to Feeding in Copepodites of the Arctic Copepod Calanus glacialis.

PubMed

Thor, Peter; Bailey, Allison; Halsband, Claudia; Guscelli, Ella; Gorokhova, Elena; Fransson, Agneta

2016-01-01

Widespread ocean acidification (OA) is transforming the chemistry of the global ocean, and the Arctic is recognised as a region where the earliest and strongest impacts of OA are expected. In the present study, metabolic effects of OA and its interaction with food availability was investigated in Calanus glacialis from the Kongsfjord, West Spitsbergen. We measured metabolic rates and RNA/DNA ratios (an indicator of biosynthesis) concurrently in fed and unfed individuals of copepodite stages CII-CIII and CV subjected to two different pH levels representative of present day and the "business as usual" IPCC scenario (RCP8.5) prediction for the year 2100. The copepods responded more strongly to changes in food level than to decreasing pH, both with respect to metabolic rate and RNA/DNA ratio. However, significant interactions between effects of pH and food level showed that effects of pH and food level act in synergy in copepodites of C. glacialis. While metabolic rates in copepodites stage CII-CIII increased by 78% as a response to food under present day conditions (high pH), the increase was 195% in CII-CIIIs kept at low pH-a 2.5 times greater increase. This interaction was absent for RNA/DNA, so the increase in metabolic rates were clearly not a reaction to changing biosynthesis at low pH per se but rather a reaction to increased metabolic costs per unit of biosynthesis. Interestingly, we did not observe this difference in costs of growth in stage CV. A 2.5 times increase in metabolic costs of growth will leave the copepodites with much less energy for growth. This may infer significant changes to the C. glacialis population during future OA.

Offset-Free Model Predictive Control of Open Water Channel Based on Moving Horizon Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekin Aydin, Boran; Rutten, Martine

2016-04-01

Model predictive control (MPC) is a powerful control option which is increasingly used by operational water managers for managing water systems. The explicit consideration of constraints and multi-objective management are important features of MPC. However, due to the water loss in open water systems by seepage, leakage and evaporation a mismatch between the model and the real system will be created. These mismatch affects the performance of MPC and creates an offset from the reference set point of the water level. We present model predictive control based on moving horizon estimation (MHE-MPC) to achieve offset free control of water level for open water canals. MHE-MPC uses the past predictions of the model and the past measurements of the system to estimate unknown disturbances and the offset in the controlled water level is systematically removed. We numerically tested MHE-MPC on an accurate hydro-dynamic model of the laboratory canal UPC-PAC located in Barcelona. In addition, we also used well known disturbance modeling offset free control scheme for the same test case. Simulation experiments on a single canal reach show that MHE-MPC outperforms disturbance modeling offset free control scheme.

Preliminary investigation of the effects of sea-level rise on groundwater levels in New Haven, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Mullaney, John R.; Stone, Janet R.; Skinner, Brian J.; Ramlow, Matthew A.

2012-01-01

Global sea level rose about 0.56 feet (ft) (170 millimeters (mm)) during the 20th century. Since the 1960s, sea level has risen at Bridgeport, Connecticut, about 0.38 ft (115 mm), at a rate of 0.008 ft (2.56 mm + or - 0.58 mm) per year. With regional subsidence, and with predicted global climate change, sea level is expected to continue to rise along the northeast coast of the United States through the 21st century. Increasing sea levels will cause groundwater levels in coastal areas to rise in order to adjust to the new conditions. Some regional climate models predict wetter climate in the northeastern United States under some scenarios. Scenarios for the resulting higher groundwater levels have the potential to inundate underground infrastructure in lowlying coastal cities. New Haven is a coastal city in Connecticut surrounded and bisected by tidally affected waters. Monitoring of water levels in wells in New Haven from August 2009 to July 2010 indicates the complex effects of urban influence on groundwater levels. The response of groundwater levels to recharge and season varied considerably from well to well. Groundwater temperatures varied seasonally, but were warmer than what was typical for Connecticut, and they seem to reflect the influence of the urban setting, including the effects of conduits for underground utilities. Specific conductance was elevated in many of the wells, indicating the influence of urban activities or seawater in Long Island Sound. A preliminary steady-state model of groundwater flow for part of New Haven was constructed using MODFLOW to simulate current groundwater levels (2009-2010) and future groundwater levels based on scenarios with a rise of 3 ft (0.91 meters (m)) in sea level, which is predicted for the end of the 21st century. An additional simulation was run assuming a 3-ft rise in sea level combined with a 12-percent increase in groundwater recharge. The model was constructed from existing hydrogeologic information for the New Haven area and from new information on groundwater levels collected during October 2009-June 2010. For the scenario with a 3-ft rise in sea level and no increase in recharge, simulated groundwater levels near the coast rose 3 ft; this increased water level tapered off toward a discharge area at the only nontidal stream in the study area. Simulated stream discharge increased at the nontidal stream because of the increased gradient. Although groundwater levels rose, the simulated difference between the groundwater levels in the aquifer and the increased sea level declined, indicating that the depth to the interface between freshwater and saltwater may possibly decline. Simulated water levels were affected by rise in sea level even in areas where the water table was at 17-24 ft (5.2-7.3 m) above current (2011) sea level. For the scenario with increased recharge, simulated groundwater levels were as much as an additional foot higher at some locations in the study area. The results of this preliminary investigation indicate that groundwater levels in coastal areas can be expected to rise and may rise higher if groundwater recharge also increases. This finding has implications for the disposal of stormwater through infiltration, a low-impact development practice designed to improve water quality and reduce overland peak discharge. Other implications include increased risk of basement flooding and increased groundwater seepage into underground sewer pipes and utility corridors in some areas. These implications will present engineering challenges to New Haven and Yale University. The preliminary model developed for this study can be the starting point for further simulation of future alternative scenarios for sea-level rise and recharge. Further simulations could identify those areas of New Haven where infrastructure may be at greatest risk from rising levels of groundwater. The simulations described in this report have limitations due to the preliminary scope of the work. Approaches to improve simulations include but are not limited to incorporating: * The variable density of seawater into the model in order to understand the current and future location of the interface between freshwater and saltwater; * Collection of additional data in order to better resolve temporal and spatial patterns in water levels in the aquifer; * Improved estimates of recharge through direct and indirect measurements of freshwater discharge from the study area; and * Transient simulations for greater understanding of the amount of time required for water levels and the position of the interface between freshwater and saltwater to adjust to changes in sea level and recharge.

Identification of Hemoglobin Levels Based on Anthropometric Indices in Elderly Koreans

PubMed Central

Kim, Jong Yeol

2016-01-01

Objectives Anemia is independently and strongly associated with an increased risk of mortality in older people and is also strongly associated with obesity. The objectives of the present study were to examine the associations between the hemoglobin level and various anthropometric indices, to predict low and normal hemoglobin levels using combined anthropometric indices, and to assess differences in the hemoglobin level and anthropometric indices between Korean men and women. Methods A total of 7,156 individuals ranging in age from 53–90 years participated in this retrospective cross-sectional study. Binary logistic regression (LR) and naïve Bayes (NB) models were used to identify significant differences in the anthropometric indices between subjects with low and normal hemoglobin levels and to assess the predictive power of these indices for the hemoglobin level. Results Among all of the variables, age displayed the strongest association with the hemoglobin level in both men (p < 0.0001, odds ratio [OR] = 0.487, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve based on the LR [LR-AUC] = 0.702, NB-AUC = 0.701) and women (p < 0.0001, OR = 0.636, LR-AUC = 0.625, NB-AUC = 0.624). Among the anthropometric indices, weight and body mass index (BMI) were the best predictors of the hemoglobin level. The predictive powers of all of the variables were higher in men than in women. The AUC values for the NB-Wrapper and LR-Wrapper predictive models generated using combined anthropometric indices were 0.734 and 0.723, respectively, for men and 0.649 and 0.652, respectively, for women. The use of combined anthropometric indices may improve the predictive power for the hemoglobin level. Discussion Among the various anthropometric indices, with the exception of age, we did not identify any indices that were better predictors than weight and BMI for low and normal hemoglobin levels. In addition, none of the ratios between pairs of indices were good indicators of the hemoglobin level. Finally, the Korean men tended to have higher associations between the anthropometric indices and anemia than the women. PMID:27812118

Sputum-to-serum hydrogen sulfide ratio as a novel biomarker of predicting future risks of asthma exacerbation.

PubMed

Suzuki, Yasuhito; Saito, Junpei; Kikuchi, Masami; Uematsu, Manabu; Fukuhara, Atsuro; Sato, Suguru; Munakata, Mitsuru

2018-05-14

Increased level of hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S) in sputum is reported to be a new biomarker of neutrophilic airway inflammation in chronic airway disorders. However, the relationship between H 2 S and disease activity remains unclear. We investigated whether H 2 S levels could vary during different conditions in asthma. H 2 S levels in sputum and serum were measured using a sulfide-sensitive electrode in 47 stable asthmatic subjects (S-BA), 21 uncontrolled asthmatic subjects (UC-BA), 26 asthmatic subjects with acute exacerbation (AE-BA), and 15 healthy subjects. Of these, H 2 S levels during stable, as well as exacerbation states were obtained in 13 asthmatic subjects. Sputum H 2 S levels were significantly higher in the AE-BA subjects compared to the UC-BA and healthy subjects (p<0.05). However, serum H 2 S levels in the AE-BA subjects were lower than in the S-BA subjects (p<0.001) and similar to those in healthy subjects. Thus, the sputum-to-serum ratio of H 2 S (H 2 S ratio) in the AE-BA subjects was significantly higher than in the S-BA, UC-BA and healthy subjects (p<0.05). Among all subjects, sputum H 2 S levels showed a trend to decrease with FEV 1% predicted, and significantly positive correlations with sputum neutrophils (%), sputum IL-8, and serum IL-8. A multiple linear regression analysis showed that sputum H 2 S was independently associated with increased sputum neutrophils (%) and decreased FEV 1% predicted (p<0.05) The cut-off level of H 2 S ratio to indicate an exacerbation was ≥0.34 (area under the curve; 0.88, with a sensitivity of 81.8% and specificity of 72.7%, p<0.001). Furthermore, half of the asthmatic subjects with H 2 S ratios higher than the cutoff level experienced asthma exacerbations over the following 3 months after enrollment. The H 2 S ratio may provide useful information on predicting future risks of asthma exacerbation, as well as on obstructive neutrophilic airway inflammation as one of the non-Th2 biomarkers, in asthma. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Different types of employee well-being across time and their relationships with job crafting.

PubMed

Hakanen, Jari J; Peeters, Maria C W; Schaufeli, Wilmar B

2018-04-01

We used and integrated the circumplex model of affect (Russell, 1980) and the conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1998) to hypothesize how various types of employee well-being, which can be differentiated on theoretical grounds (i.e., work engagement, job satisfaction, burnout, and workaholism), may differently predict various job crafting behaviors (i.e., increasing structural and social resources and challenging demands, and decreasing hindering demands) and each other over time. At Time 1, we measured employee well-being, and 4 years later at Time 2, job crafting and well-being, using a large sample of Finnish dentists (N = 1,877). The results of structural equation modeling showed that (a) work engagement positively predicted both types of increasing resources and challenging demands and negatively predicted decreasing hindering demands; (b) workaholism positively predicted increasing structural resources and challenging demands; (c) burnout positively predicted decreasing hindering demands and negatively predicted increasing structural resources, whereas (d) job satisfaction did not relate to job crafting over time; and (e) work engagement positively influenced job satisfaction and negatively influenced burnout, whereas (f) workaholism predicted burnout after controlling for baseline levels. Thus, work engagement was a stronger predictor of future job crafting and other types of employee well-being than job satisfaction. Although workaholism was positively associated with job crafting, it also predicted burnout. We conclude that the relationship between job crafting and employee well-being may be more complex than assumed, because the way in which employees will craft their jobs in the future seems to depend on how they currently feel. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

A Generic Service-Oriented Cost Model for Student Admissions Registration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pena, Philip Edward

2017-01-01

State support of community colleges has been reduced in recent years and is not expected to recover to previous levels, even though costs continue to rise. While many colleges have increased tuition in response to this situation, students cannot afford endless increases in tuition. While predicting the future is difficult, it is likely that…

Effect of drought on nutrient uptake and the levels of nutrient-uptake proteins in roots of drought-sensitive and –tolerant grasses

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate models predict a reduction in precipitation and an increase in evapotranspiration rates in many regions of the world in coming decades, resulting in increased drought. In addition to decreasing plant growth and reproduction, drought also decreases the concentration (%) of nitrogen (N) and p...

Hydraulic integration and shrub growth form linked across continental aridity gradients

Treesearch

H. Jochen Schenk; Christine M. Goedhart; Marisa Nordenstahl; Hugo I. Martinez Cabrera; Cynthia S. Jones

2008-01-01

Both engineered hydraulic systems and plant hydraulic systems are protected against failure by resistance, reparability, and redundancy. A basic rule of reliability engineering is that the level of independent redundancy should increase with increasing risk of fatal system failure. Here we show that hydraulic systems of plants function as predicted by this engineering...

Predicting the impact of tsunami in California under rising sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dura, T.; Garner, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.

2017-12-01

The flood hazard for the California coast depends not only on the magnitude, location, and rupture length of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone earthquakes and their resultant tsunamis, but also on rising sea levels, which combine with tsunamis to produce overall flood levels. The magnitude of future sea-level rise remains uncertain even on the decadal scale, with future sea-level projections becoming even more uncertain at timeframes of a century or more. Earthquake statistics indicate that timeframes of ten thousand to one hundred thousand years are needed to capture rare, very large earthquakes. Because of the different timescales between reliable sea-level projections and earthquake distributions, simply combining the different probabilities in the context of a tsunami hazard assessment may be flawed. Here, we considered 15 earthquakes between Mw 8 to Mw 9.4 bound by -171oW and -140oW of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone. We employed 24 realizations at each magnitude with random epicenter locations and different fault length-to-width ratios, and simulated the tsunami evolution from these 360 earthquakes at each decade from the years 2000 to 2200. These simulations were then carried out for different sea-level-rise projections to analyze the future flood hazard for California. Looking at the flood levels at tide gauges, we found that the flood level simulated at, for example, the year 2100 (including respective sea-level change) is different from the flood level calculated by adding the flood for the year 2000 to the sea-level change prediction for the year 2100. This is consistent for all sea-level rise scenarios, and this difference in flood levels range between 5% and 12% for the larger half of the given magnitude interval. Focusing on flood levels at the tide gauge in the Port of Los Angeles, the most probable flood level (including all earthquake magnitudes) in the year 2000 was 5 cm. Depending on the sea-level predictions, in the year 2050 the most probable flood levels could rise to 20 to 30 cm, but increase significantly from 2100 to 2200 to between 0.5 m and 2.5 m. Aside from the significant increase in flood level, it should be noted that the range over which potential most probable flood levels can vary is significant and defines a tremendous challenge for long-term planning of hazard mitigating measures.

Silent Expectations: Dynamic Causal Modeling of Cortical Prediction and Attention to Sounds That Weren't.

PubMed

Chennu, Srivas; Noreika, Valdas; Gueorguiev, David; Shtyrov, Yury; Bekinschtein, Tristan A; Henson, Richard

2016-08-10

There is increasing evidence that human perception is realized by a hierarchy of neural processes in which predictions sent backward from higher levels result in prediction errors that are fed forward from lower levels, to update the current model of the environment. Moreover, the precision of prediction errors is thought to be modulated by attention. Much of this evidence comes from paradigms in which a stimulus differs from that predicted by the recent history of other stimuli (generating a so-called "mismatch response"). There is less evidence from situations where a prediction is not fulfilled by any sensory input (an "omission" response). This situation arguably provides a more direct measure of "top-down" predictions in the absence of confounding "bottom-up" input. We applied Dynamic Causal Modeling of evoked electromagnetic responses recorded by EEG and MEG to an auditory paradigm in which we factorially crossed the presence versus absence of "bottom-up" stimuli with the presence versus absence of "top-down" attention. Model comparison revealed that both mismatch and omission responses were mediated by increased forward and backward connections, differing primarily in the driving input. In both responses, modeling results suggested that the presence of attention selectively modulated backward "prediction" connections. Our results provide new model-driven evidence of the pure top-down prediction signal posited in theories of hierarchical perception, and highlight the role of attentional precision in strengthening this prediction. Human auditory perception is thought to be realized by a network of neurons that maintain a model of and predict future stimuli. Much of the evidence for this comes from experiments where a stimulus unexpectedly differs from previous ones, which generates a well-known "mismatch response." But what happens when a stimulus is unexpectedly omitted altogether? By measuring the brain's electromagnetic activity, we show that it also generates an "omission response" that is contingent on the presence of attention. We model these responses computationally, revealing that mismatch and omission responses only differ in the location of inputs into the same underlying neuronal network. In both cases, we show that attention selectively strengthens the brain's prediction of the future. Copyright © 2016 Chennu et al.

Contemporaneous and 1-year longitudinal prediction of children's prosocial behavior from sympathy and moral motivation.

PubMed

Malti, Tina; Gummerum, Michaela; Buchmann, Marlis

2007-09-01

The authors investigated the contemporaneous and longitudinal relations of children's (M age = 6.4 years) prosocial behavior to sympathy and moral motivation. Mothers and kindergarten teachers rated children's prosocial behavior. The authors measured sympathy via self- and adult reports. Moral motivation was assessed by children's attribution of emotions to hypothetical victimizers and self-as-victimizers and by moral reasoning after rule violations. Mother-rated prosocial behavior was contemporaneously and longitudinally related to sympathy. Moral motivation moderated the relation of sympathy to mother-rated prosocial behavior. Furthermore, boys' level of mother-rated prosocial behavior increased with level of moral motivation, whereas girls were high in mother-rated prosocial behavior, regardless of their level of moral motivation. Sympathy contemporaneously predicted kindergarten teacher-rated prosocial behavior.

Infrastructure effects on estuarine wetlands increase their vulnerability to sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, Jose; Saco, Patricia; Sandi, Steven; Saintilan, Neil; Riccardi, Gerardo

2017-04-01

At the regional and global scales, coastal management and planning for future sea level rise scenarios is typically supported by modelling tools that predict the expected inundation extent. These tools rely on a number of simplifying assumptions that, in some cases, may result in important miscalculation of the inundation effects. One of such cases is estuarine wetlands, where vegetation strongly depends on both the magnitude and the timing of inundation. Many coastal wetlands display flow restrictions due to infrastructure or drainage works, which produce alterations to the inundation patterns that can not be captured by conventional models. In this contribution we explore the effects of flow restrictions on inundation patterns under sea level rise conditions in estuarine wetlands. We use a spatially-distributed dynamic wetland ecogeomorphological model that not only incorporates the effects of flow restrictions due to culverts, bridges and weirs as well as vegetation, but also considers that vegetation changes as a consequence of increasing inundation. We also consider the ability of vegetation to capture sediment and produce accretion. We apply our model to an estuarine wetland in Australia and show that our model predicts a much faster wetland loss due to sea level rise than conventional approaches.

Computational Analysis of AMPK-Mediated Neuroprotection Suggests Acute Excitotoxic Bioenergetics and Glucose Dynamics Are Regulated by a Minimal Set of Critical Reactions.

PubMed

Connolly, Niamh M C; D'Orsi, Beatrice; Monsefi, Naser; Huber, Heinrich J; Prehn, Jochen H M

2016-01-01

Loss of ionic homeostasis during excitotoxic stress depletes ATP levels and activates the AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK), re-establishing energy production by increased expression of glucose transporters on the plasma membrane. Here, we develop a computational model to test whether this AMPK-mediated glucose import can rapidly restore ATP levels following a transient excitotoxic insult. We demonstrate that a highly compact model, comprising a minimal set of critical reactions, can closely resemble the rapid dynamics and cell-to-cell heterogeneity of ATP levels and AMPK activity, as confirmed by single-cell fluorescence microscopy in rat primary cerebellar neurons exposed to glutamate excitotoxicity. The model further correctly predicted an excitotoxicity-induced elevation of intracellular glucose, and well resembled the delayed recovery and cell-to-cell heterogeneity of experimentally measured glucose dynamics. The model also predicted necrotic bioenergetic collapse and altered calcium dynamics following more severe excitotoxic insults. In conclusion, our data suggest that a minimal set of critical reactions may determine the acute bioenergetic response to transient excitotoxicity and that an AMPK-mediated increase in intracellular glucose may be sufficient to rapidly recover ATP levels following an excitotoxic insult.

Computational Analysis of AMPK-Mediated Neuroprotection Suggests Acute Excitotoxic Bioenergetics and Glucose Dynamics Are Regulated by a Minimal Set of Critical Reactions

PubMed Central

Connolly, Niamh M. C.; D’Orsi, Beatrice; Monsefi, Naser; Huber, Heinrich J.; Prehn, Jochen H. M.

2016-01-01

Loss of ionic homeostasis during excitotoxic stress depletes ATP levels and activates the AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK), re-establishing energy production by increased expression of glucose transporters on the plasma membrane. Here, we develop a computational model to test whether this AMPK-mediated glucose import can rapidly restore ATP levels following a transient excitotoxic insult. We demonstrate that a highly compact model, comprising a minimal set of critical reactions, can closely resemble the rapid dynamics and cell-to-cell heterogeneity of ATP levels and AMPK activity, as confirmed by single-cell fluorescence microscopy in rat primary cerebellar neurons exposed to glutamate excitotoxicity. The model further correctly predicted an excitotoxicity-induced elevation of intracellular glucose, and well resembled the delayed recovery and cell-to-cell heterogeneity of experimentally measured glucose dynamics. The model also predicted necrotic bioenergetic collapse and altered calcium dynamics following more severe excitotoxic insults. In conclusion, our data suggest that a minimal set of critical reactions may determine the acute bioenergetic response to transient excitotoxicity and that an AMPK-mediated increase in intracellular glucose may be sufficient to rapidly recover ATP levels following an excitotoxic insult. PMID:26840769

Prediction of the acoustic and bubble fields in insonified freeze-drying vials.

PubMed

Louisnard, O; Cogné, C; Labouret, S; Montes-Quiroz, W; Peczalski, R; Baillon, F; Espitalier, F

2015-09-01

The acoustic field and the location of cavitation bubble are computed in vials used for freeze-drying, insonified from the bottom by a vibrating plate. The calculations rely on a nonlinear model of sound propagation in a cavitating liquid [Louisnard, Ultrason. Sonochem., 19, (2012) 56-65]. Both the vibration amplitude and the liquid level in the vial are parametrically varied. For low liquid levels, a threshold amplitude is required to form a cavitation zone at the bottom of the vial. For increasing vibration amplitudes, the bubble field slightly thickens but remains at the vial bottom, and the acoustic field saturates, which cannot be captured by linear acoustics. On the other hand, increasing the liquid level may promote the formation of a secondary bubble structure near the glass wall, a few centimeters below the free liquid surface. These predictions suggest that rather complex acoustic fields and bubble structures can arise even in such small volumes. As the acoustic and bubble fields govern ice nucleation during the freezing step, the final crystal's size distribution in the frozen product may crucially depend on the liquid level in the vial. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interindividual differences in stress sensitivity: basal and stress-induced cortisol levels differentially predict neural vigilance processing under stress.

PubMed

Henckens, Marloes J A G; Klumpers, Floris; Everaerd, Daphne; Kooijman, Sabine C; van Wingen, Guido A; Fernández, Guillén

2016-04-01

Stress exposure is known to precipitate psychological disorders. However, large differences exist in how individuals respond to stressful situations. A major marker for stress sensitivity is hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA)-axis function. Here, we studied how interindividual variance in both basal cortisol levels and stress-induced cortisol responses predicts differences in neural vigilance processing during stress exposure. Implementing a randomized, counterbalanced, crossover design, 120 healthy male participants were exposed to a stress-induction and control procedure, followed by an emotional perception task (viewing fearful and happy faces) during fMRI scanning. Stress sensitivity was assessed using physiological (salivary cortisol levels) and psychological measures (trait questionnaires). High stress-induced cortisol responses were associated with increased stress sensitivity as assessed by psychological questionnaires, a stronger stress-induced increase in medial temporal activity and greater differential amygdala responses to fearful as opposed to happy faces under control conditions. In contrast, high basal cortisol levels were related to relative stress resilience as reflected by higher extraversion scores, a lower stress-induced increase in amygdala activity and enhanced differential processing of fearful compared with happy faces under stress. These findings seem to reflect a critical role for HPA-axis signaling in stress coping; higher basal levels indicate stress resilience, whereas higher cortisol responsivity to stress might facilitate recovery in those individuals prone to react sensitively to stress. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Assessment of chemical fate in the environment using evaluative, regional and local-scale models: Illustrative application to chlorobenzene and linear alkylbenzene sulfonates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mackay, D.; Di Guardo, A.; Paterson, S.

Evaluation of chemical fate in the environment has been suggested to be best accomplished using a five-stage process in which a sequence of increasing site-specific multimedia mass balance models is applied. This approach is illustrated for chlorobenzene and linear alkylbenzene sulfonates (LAS). The first two stages involve classifying the chemical and quantifying the emissions into each environmental compartment. In the third stage, the characteristics of the chemical are determined using the evaluative equilibrium criterion model, which is capable of treating a variety of chemicals including those that are in volatile and insoluble in water. This evaluation is conducted in threemore » steps using levels 1, 2, and 3 versions of the model, which introduce increasing complexity and more realistic representations of the environment. In the fourth stage, ChemCAN, which is a level 3 model for specific regions of Canada, is used to predict the chemical`s fate in southern Ontario. The final stage is to apply local environmental models to predict environmental exposure concentrations. For chlorobenzene, the local model was the SoilFug model, which predicts the fate of agrochemicals, and for LAS the WW-TREAT, GRiDS, and ROUT models were used to predict the fate of LAS in a sewage treatment plant and in riverine receiving waters. It is concluded that this systematic approach provides a comprehensive assessment of chemical fate, revealing the broad characteristics of chemical behavior and quantifying the likely local and regional exposure levels.« less

Improving Genomic Prediction in Cassava Field Experiments by Accounting for Interplot Competition

PubMed Central

Elias, Ani A.; Rabbi, Ismail; Kulakow, Peter; Jannink, Jean-Luc

2018-01-01

Plants competing for available resources is an unavoidable phenomenon in a field. We conducted studies in cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) in order to understand the pattern of this competition. Taking into account the competitive ability of genotypes while selecting parents for breeding advancement or commercialization can be very useful. We assumed that competition could occur at two levels: (i) the genotypic level, which we call interclonal, and (ii) the plot level irrespective of the type of genotype, which we call interplot competition or competition error. Modification in incidence matrices was applied in order to relate neighboring genotype/plot to the performance of a target genotype/plot with respect to its competitive ability. This was added into a genomic selection (GS) model to simultaneously predict the direct and competitive ability of a genotype. Predictability of the models was tested through a 10-fold cross-validation method repeated five times. The best model was chosen as the one with the lowest prediction root mean squared error (pRMSE) compared to that of the base model having no competitive component. Results from our real data studies indicated that <10% increase in accuracy was achieved with GS-interclonal competition model, but this value reached up to 25% with a GS-competition error model. We also found that the competitive influence of a cassava clone is not just limited to the adjacent neighbors but spreads beyond them. Through simulations, we found that a 26% increase of accuracy in estimating trait genotypic effect can be achieved even in the presence of high competitive variance. PMID:29358232

Role of spontaneous physical activity in prediction of susceptibility to activity based anorexia in male and female rats

PubMed Central

Perez-Leighton, Claudio; Grace, Martha; Billington, Charles J.; Kotz, Catherine M.

2015-01-01

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a chronic eating disorder affecting females and males, defined by body weight loss, higher physical activity levels and restricted food intake. Currently, the commonalities and differences between genders in etiology of AN are not well understood. Animal models of AN, such as activity-based anorexia (ABA), can be helpful in identifying factors determining individual susceptibility to AN. In ABA, rodents are given an access to a running wheel while food restricted, resulting in paradoxical increased physical activity levels and weight loss. Recent studies suggest that different behavioral traits, including voluntary exercise, can predict individual weight loss in ABA. A higher inherent drive for movement can promote development and severity of AN, but this hypothesis remains untested. In rodents and humans, drive for movement is defined as spontaneous physical activity (SPA), which is time spent in low-intensity, non-volitional movements. In this paper, we show that a profile of body weight history and behavioral traits, including SPA, can predict individual weight loss caused by ABA in male and female rats with high accuracy. Analysis of the influence of SPA on ABA susceptibility in males and females rats suggests that either high or low levels of SPA increase the probability of high weight loss in ABA, but with larger effects in males compared to females. These results suggest the same behavioral profile can identify individuals at-risk of AN for both male and female populations and that SPA has predictive value for susceptibility to AN. PMID:24912135

Role of spontaneous physical activity in prediction of susceptibility to activity based anorexia in male and female rats.

PubMed

Perez-Leighton, Claudio E; Grace, Martha; Billington, Charles J; Kotz, Catherine M

2014-08-01

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a chronic eating disorder affecting females and males, defined by body weight loss, higher physical activity levels and restricted food intake. Currently, the commonalities and differences between genders in etiology of AN are not well understood. Animal models of AN, such as activity-based anorexia (ABA), can be helpful in identifying factors determining individual susceptibility to AN. In ABA, rodents are given an access to a running wheel while food restricted, resulting in paradoxical increased physical activity levels and weight loss. Recent studies suggest that different behavioral traits, including voluntary exercise, can predict individual weight loss in ABA. A higher inherent drive for movement may promote development and severity of AN, but this hypothesis remains untested. In rodents and humans, drive for movement is defined as spontaneous physical activity (SPA), which is time spent in low-intensity, non-volitional movements. In this paper, we show that a profile of body weight history and behavioral traits, including SPA, can predict individual weight loss caused by ABA in male and female rats with high accuracy. Analysis of the influence of SPA on ABA susceptibility in males and females rats suggests that either high or low levels of SPA increase the probability of high weight loss in ABA, but with larger effects in males compared to females. These results suggest that the same behavioral profile can identify individuals at-risk of AN for both male and female populations and that SPA has predictive value for susceptibility to AN. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Parental attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder predicts child and parent outcomes of parental friendship coaching treatment.

PubMed

Griggs, Marissa Swaim; Mikami, Amori Yee

2011-12-01

This study investigated the impact of parental attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms on the peer relationships and parent-child interaction outcomes of children with ADHD among families completing a randomized controlled trial of parental friendship coaching (PFC) relative to control families. Participants were 62 children with ADHD (42 boys and 20 girls, 6 through 10 years old) and their parents. Approximately half of the families received PFC (a 3-month parent training intervention targeting the peer relationships of children with ADHD), and the remainder represented a no-treatment control group. Parental inattention predicted equivalent declines in children's peer acceptance in both treatment and control families. However, treatment amplified differences between parents with high versus low ADHD symptoms for some outcomes: Control families declined in functioning regardless of parents' symptom levels. However, high parental inattention predicted increased child peer rejection and high parental inattention and impulsivity predicted decreased parental facilitation among treated families (indicating reduced treatment response). Low parental symptoms among treated families were associated with improved functioning in these areas. For other outcomes, treatment attenuated differences between parents with high versus low ADHD symptoms: Among control parents, high parental impulsivity was associated with increasing criticism over time, whereas all treated parents showed reduced criticism regardless of symptom levels. Follow-up analyses indicated that the parents experiencing poor treatment response are likely those with clinical levels of ADHD symptoms. Results underscore the need to consider parental ADHD in parent training treatments for children with ADHD. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Periodontal inflamed surface area and C-reactive protein as predictors of HbA1c: a study in Indonesia.

PubMed

Susanto, Hendri; Nesse, Willem; Dijkstra, Pieter U; Hoedemaker, Evelien; van Reenen, Yvonne Huijser; Agustina, Dewi; Vissink, Arjan; Abbas, Frank

2012-08-01

Periodontitis may exert an infectious and inflammatory burden, evidenced by increased C-reactive protein (CRP). This burden may impair blood glucose control (HbA1c). The aim of our study was to analyze whether periodontitis severity as measured with the periodontal inflamed surface area (PISA) and CRP predict HbA1c levels in a group of healthy Indonesians and a group of Indonesians treated for type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2). A full-mouth periodontal examination, including probing pocket depth, gingival recession, clinical attachment loss, plaque index and bleeding on probing, was performed in 132 healthy Indonesians and 101 Indonesians treated for DM2. Using these data, PISA was calculated. In addition, HbA1c and CRP were analyzed. A validated questionnaire was used to assess smoking, body mass index (BMI), education and medical conditions. In regression analyses, it was assessed whether periodontitis severity and CRP predict HbA1c, controlling for confounding and effect modification (i.e., age, sex, BMI, pack years, and education). In healthy Indonesians, PISA and CRP predicted HbA1c as did age, sex, and smoking. In Indonesians treated for DM2, PISA did not predict HbA1c. Periodontitis may impair blood glucose regulation in healthy Indonesians in conjunction with elevated CRP levels. The potential effect of periodontitis on glucose control in DM2 patients may be masked by DM2 treatment. periodontitis may impair blood glucose control through exerting an inflammatory and infectious burden evidenced by increased levels of CRP.

Improving Genomic Prediction in Cassava Field Experiments by Accounting for Interplot Competition.

PubMed

Elias, Ani A; Rabbi, Ismail; Kulakow, Peter; Jannink, Jean-Luc

2018-03-02

Plants competing for available resources is an unavoidable phenomenon in a field. We conducted studies in cassava ( Manihot esculenta Crantz) in order to understand the pattern of this competition. Taking into account the competitive ability of genotypes while selecting parents for breeding advancement or commercialization can be very useful. We assumed that competition could occur at two levels: (i) the genotypic level, which we call interclonal, and (ii) the plot level irrespective of the type of genotype, which we call interplot competition or competition error. Modification in incidence matrices was applied in order to relate neighboring genotype/plot to the performance of a target genotype/plot with respect to its competitive ability. This was added into a genomic selection (GS) model to simultaneously predict the direct and competitive ability of a genotype. Predictability of the models was tested through a 10-fold cross-validation method repeated five times. The best model was chosen as the one with the lowest prediction root mean squared error (pRMSE) compared to that of the base model having no competitive component. Results from our real data studies indicated that <10% increase in accuracy was achieved with GS-interclonal competition model, but this value reached up to 25% with a GS-competition error model. We also found that the competitive influence of a cassava clone is not just limited to the adjacent neighbors but spreads beyond them. Through simulations, we found that a 26% increase of accuracy in estimating trait genotypic effect can be achieved even in the presence of high competitive variance. Copyright © 2018 Elias et al.

Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Preliminary Results with Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis (2008)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, B.; Tao, W.; Atlas, R.

2008-12-01

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis, the deadliest named tropical cyclone (TC) in the North Indian Ocean Basin, devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, causing tremendous damage and numerous fatalities. An increased lead time in the prediction of TC Nargis would have increased the warning time and may therefore have saved lives and reduced economic damage. Recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputers have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, presumably by improving multi-scale simulations. The key but challenging questions to be answered include: (1) if and how realistic, in terms of timing, location and TC general structure, the global mesoscale model (GMM) can simulate TC genesis and (2) under what conditions can the model extend the lead time of TC genesis forecasts. In this study, we focus on genesis prediction for TCs in the Indian Ocean with the GMM. Preliminary real-data simulations show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted at a lead time of up to 5 days. These simulations also suggest that the accurate representations of a westerly wind burst (WWB) and an equatorial trough, associated with monsoon circulations and/or a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), are important for predicting the formation of this kind of TC. In addition to the WWB and equatorial trough, other favorable environmental conditions will be examined, which include enhanced monsoonal circulation, upper-level outflow, low- and middle-level moistening, and surface fluxes.

Evaluation of a black-footed ferret resource utilization function model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eads, D.A.; Millspaugh, J.J.; Biggins, D.E.; Jachowski, D.S.; Livieri, T.M.

2011-01-01

Resource utilization function (RUF) models permit evaluation of potential habitat for endangered species; ideally such models should be evaluated before use in management decision-making. We evaluated the predictive capabilities of a previously developed black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes) RUF. Using the population-level RUF, generated from ferret observations at an adjacent yet distinct colony, we predicted the distribution of ferrets within a black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colony in the Conata Basin, South Dakota, USA. We evaluated model performance, using data collected during post-breeding spotlight surveys (2007-2008) by assessing model agreement via weighted compositional analysis and count-metrics. Compositional analysis of home range use and colony-level availability, and core area use and home range availability, demonstrated ferret selection of the predicted Very high and High occurrence categories in 2007 and 2008. Simple count-metrics corroborated these findings and suggested selection of the Very high category in 2007 and the Very high and High categories in 2008. Collectively, these results suggested that the RUF was useful in predicting occurrence and intensity of space use of ferrets at our study site, the 2 objectives of the RUF. Application of this validated RUF would increase the resolution of habitat evaluations, permitting prediction of the distribution of ferrets within distinct colonies. Additional model evaluation at other sites, on other black-tailed prairie dog colonies of varying resource configuration and size, would increase understanding of influences upon model performance and the general utility of the RUF. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Latino parent acculturation stress: Longitudinal effects on family functioning and youth emotional and behavioral health.

PubMed

Lorenzo-Blanco, Elma I; Meca, Alan; Unger, Jennifer B; Romero, Andrea; Gonzales-Backen, Melinda; Piña-Watson, Brandy; Cano, Miguel Ángel; Zamboanga, Byron L; Des Rosiers, Sabrina E; Soto, Daniel W; Villamar, Juan A; Lizzi, Karina M; Pattarroyo, Monica; Schwartz, Seth J

2016-12-01

Latino parents can experience acculturation stressors, and according to the Family Stress Model (FSM), parent stress can influence youth mental health and substance use by negatively affecting family functioning. To understand how acculturation stressors come together and unfold over time to influence youth mental health and substance use outcomes, the current study investigated the trajectory of a latent parent acculturation stress factor and its influence on youth mental health and substance use via parent-and youth-reported family functioning. Data came from a 6-wave, school-based survey with 302 recent (<5 years) immigrant Latino parents (74% mothers, Mage = 41.09 years) and their adolescents (47% female, Mage = 14.51 years). Parents' reports of discrimination, negative context of reception, and acculturative stress loaded onto a latent factor of acculturation stress at each of the first 4 time points. Earlier levels of and increases in parent acculturation stress predicted worse youth-reported family functioning. Additionally, earlier levels of parent acculturation stress predicted worse parent-reported family functioning and increases in parent acculturation stress predicted better parent-reported family functioning. While youth-reported positive family functioning predicted higher self-esteem, lower symptoms of depression, and lower aggressive and rule-breaking behavior in youth, parent-reported family positive functioning predicted lower youth alcohol and cigarette use. Findings highlight the need for Latino youth preventive interventions to target parent acculturation stress and family functioning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Application of artificial neural network model for groundwater level forecasting in a river island with artificial influencing factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sanghoon; Yoon, Heesung; Park, Byeong-Hak; Lee, Kang-Kun

2017-04-01

Groundwater use has been increased for various purposes like agriculture, industry or drinking water in recent years, the issue related to sustainability on the groundwater use also has been raised. Accordingly, forecasting the groundwater level is of great importance for planning sustainable use of groundwater. In a small island surrounded by the Han River, South Korea, seasonal fluctuation of the groundwater level is characterized by multiple factors such as recharge/discharge event of the Paldang dam, Water Curtain Cultivation (WCC) during the winter season, operation of Groundwater Heat Pump System (GWHP). For a period when the dam operation is only occurred in the study area, a prediction of the groundwater level can be easily achieved by a simple cross-correlation model. However, for a period when the WCC and the GWHP systems are working together, the groundwater level prediction is challenging due to its unpredictable operation of the two systems. This study performed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to forecast the groundwater level in the river area reflecting the various predictable/unpredictable factors. For constructing the ANN models, two monitoring wells, YSN1 and YSO8, which are located near the injection and abstraction wells for the GWHP system were selected, respectively. By training with the groundwater level data measured in January 2015 to August 2015, response of groundwater level by each of the surface water level, the WCC and the GWHP system were evaluated. Consequentially, groundwater levels in December 2015 to March 2016 were predicted by ANN models, providing optimal fits in comparison to the observed water levels. This study suggests that the ANN model is a useful tool to forecast the groundwater level in terms of the management of groundwater. Acknowledgement : Financial support was provided by the "R&D Project on Environmental Management of Geologic CO2 Storage" from the KEITI (Project Number: 2014001810003) This research was supported by "BK 21plus project of the Korean Government"

Improved management of small pelagic fisheries through seasonal climate prediction.

PubMed

Tommasi, Désirée; Stock, Charles A; Pegion, Kathleen; Vecchi, Gabriel A; Methot, Richard D; Alexander, Michael A; Checkley, David M

2017-03-01

Populations of small pelagic fish are strongly influenced by climate. The inability of managers to anticipate environment-driven fluctuations in stock productivity or distribution can lead to overfishing and stock collapses, inflexible management regulations inducing shifts in the functional response to human predators, lost opportunities to harvest populations, bankruptcies in the fishing industry, and loss of resilience in the human food supply. Recent advances in dynamical global climate prediction systems allow for sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly predictions at a seasonal scale over many shelf ecosystems. Here we assess the utility of SST predictions at this "fishery relevant" scale to inform management, using Pacific sardine as a case study. The value of SST anomaly predictions to management was quantified under four harvest guidelines (HGs) differing in their level of integration of SST data and predictions. The HG that incorporated stock biomass forecasts informed by skillful SST predictions led to increases in stock biomass and yield, and reductions in the probability of yield and biomass falling below socioeconomic or ecologically acceptable levels. However, to mitigate the risk of collapse in the event of an erroneous forecast, it was important to combine such forecast-informed harvest controls with additional harvest restrictions at low biomass. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Isometric quadriceps strength determines sailing performance and neuromuscular fatigue during an upwind sailing emulation.

PubMed

Bourgois, Jan G; Callewaert, Margot; Celie, Bert; De Clercq, Dirk; Boone, Jan

2016-01-01

This study investigates the physiological responses to upwind sailing on a laser emulation ergometer and analyses the components of the physical profile that determine the physiological responses related to sailing level. Ten male high-level laser sailors performed an upwind sailing test, incremental cycling test and quadriceps strength test. During the upwind sailing test, heart rate (HR), oxygen uptake, ventilation, respiratory exchange ratio, rating of perceived exertion (RPE) and lactate concentration were measured, combined with near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and electromyography (EMG) registration of the M. Vastus lateralis. Repeated measures ANOVA showed for the cardio-respiratory, metabolic and muscles responses (mean power frequency [MPF], root mean square [RMS], deoxy[Hb+Mb]) during the upwind sailing test an initial significant increase followed by a stabilisation, despite a constant increase in RPE. Stepwise regression analysis showed that better sailing level was for 46.5% predicted by lower MPF decrease. Lower MPF decrease was for 57.8% predicted by a higher maximal isometric quadriceps strength. In conclusion, this study indicates that higher sailing level was mainly determined by a lower rate of neuromuscular fatigue during the upwind sailing test (as indicated by MPF decrease). Additionally, the level of neuromuscular fatigue was mainly determined by higher maximal isometric quadriceps strength stressing the importance of resistance training in the planning of training.

Democracy predicts sport and recreation membership: Insights from 52 countries.

PubMed

Balish, Shea M

2017-03-01

Although evidence suggests sport and recreation are powerful contributors to worldwide public health, sizable gender differences persist. It is unknown whether country characteristics moderate gender differences across countries. The primary purpose of this study was to examine if countries' levels of democracy and/or gender inequality moderate gender differences in sport and recreation membership across countries. The secondary purpose was to examine if democracy and/or gender inequality predicts overall rates of sport and recreation membership for both males and females. This study involved a nested cross-sectional design and employed the sixth wave (2013) of the world value survey (n Ss =71,901, n countries =52). Multiple hierarchal nonlinear Bernoulli models tested: (1) if countries' levels of democracy moderate gender differences in sport and recreation membership; and (2) if democracy is associated with increased sport and recreation membership for both males and females. Countries' level of democracy fully moderated gender differences in sport and recreation membership across countries. Moreover, democracy was positively associated with both male and female membership, even when controlling for individual and country-level covariates. Democratic political regimes may confer health benefits via increased levels of sport and recreation membership, especially for females. Future research should test mediating mechanisms. Copyright © 2016 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.